Sample records for featuring enso 1997-2000

  1. [Drug expenditures of pensioners in 1997-2000]. (United States)

    Swistak, Piotr; Błońska-Fajfrowska, Barbara


    The general purpose of the study, carried out in the group of pensioners was to determine the relation between drug prices, household income and amounts of money spent on drugs in the years 1997-2000. The study was based on representative data gathered from annual household budgets review by Polish Statistical Office and data from pharmaceutical market published in 'Vitamina C++' magazine. The used method combined descriptive, comparative, table-descriptive analysis with graphical analysis. During studied period the real value of expenses on drugs in pensioners' households rose by 39.3% and available income decreased by 5.8%. Increased expenses on drugs caused the rise of the proportion of on spending on drugs in total household expenditure. It rose from 3.9% in 1997 to 5.2% in 2000. Throughout this time period the drug prices increased in real terms: the highest growth (approx. 49%) was noticed in patients' co-payment to reimbursed drugs. Despite rise in spending on drugs, due to the increase in drug retail prices and increasing patients co-payment, pensioners in comparison with 1997, could buy only approx. 93% units of reimbursed drugs in 2000. The possibility of buying drugs within OTC group increased by 18%.

  2. The large-scale ENSO event, the El Niño and other important regional features

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    anomalously heavy subtropical Chilean rainfall. The high index (anti-ENSO phase of the SO relates on the west side of the «see-saw» to anomalously heavy rainfall over eastern and northern Australia, anomalously heavy east monsoon rainfall over Indonesia, above normal summer monsoon rainfall over India, and an abnormally large supply of water entering the Nile River system as a result of abnormally heavy summer monsoon rainfall over the highlands of Ethiopia. In contrast, on the east side of the «see-saw» it relates to cool anti-El Niño conditions over the northwestern South American coastal region with its cool upwelling waters, an equatorial Pacific dry zone extending far to the west as a result of the underlying cool upwelling sea water caused by strong easterly winds, and anomalously low subtropical Chilean rainfall. Although each individual large-scale ENSO and anti-ENSO phase pattern will display its own unique characteristics, the above-stated generalities will frequently occur, particularly when the events are in the strong and very strong intensity categories. At times the initial onset of these large-scale developments can be noted earlier on the western side of the «see-saw» than they can on the eastern side. There is no better example of this than the very strong 1982-1983 ENSO development. An ultimate goal of all research on the large-scale ENSO, the El Niño, and other associated regional climatic features is to eventually develop the capability to provide reasonably reliable long-range outlooks as to the time of onset, areal extent, duration, and intensity of these recurring SO-related ocean-atmosphere climatic fluctuations. Here some of the background information, data, and records obtained over the historical past are presented and discussed.

  3. An epidemiological analysis of drunk driving accidents in Kagawa Prefecture - comparison of 1997-2000 and 2003-2006. (United States)

    Fujita, Yoshitsugu; Inoue, Ken; Sakuta, Akira; Seki, Nobuhiko; Miyazawa, Teruomi; Eguchi, Kenji


    In this study, we examined the number of drunk driving accidents and drunk driving accident toll in 1997-2000 and 2003-2006 for Kagawa Prefecture, which had Japan's highest number of traffic accident fatalities per 100,000 population.

  4. Characterization of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) foci in Germany and Latvia (1997-2000). (United States)

    Süss, Jochen; Schrader, Christina; Abel, Ulrich; Bormane, Antra; Duks, Arnis; Kalnina, Vaira


    Knowledge concerning the prevalence of the tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) in wild living tick populations is very important for understanding the epidemiology of the disease and for immuno prophylactic strategy. In Germany high and low risk areas of TBE exist. In the years 1997-2000, 533 autochthonous clinical TBE cases were recorded, in the high-risk areas of Bavaria and Baden-Wuerttemberg 140 and 363, and in the low risk areas in Hesse (Odenwald) and Rhineland-Palatinate 22 and 8, respectively. Corresponding to these case reports we have measured the virus prevalence in free living ticks in these four risk areas and compared these findings with the situation in high-risk areas in Latvia. In the years 1997-2000, 2,797 clinical TBE cases were recorded in Latvia. For the studies in Germany, a total of 17,398 Ixodesricinus ticks (14,860 nymphs and 2,538 adults) were collected by flagging and examined for TBEV, in Latvia the corresponding numbers were 525 I. ricinus ticks (350 adults and 175 nymphs) and 281 I. persulcatus ticks (adults only). Information concerning annual and seasonal differences of the TBEV prevalence in natural TBE foci is not available in Germany. This paper is a continuation of the study (Süss et al., 1999), starting in 1997. We investigated every year, in May and September, the virus prevalence in ticks in high risk areas of Bavaria (8 foci) and Baden-Wuerttemberg (5 foci). A total of 15,400 ticks (13,100 nymphs and 2,300 adults) were examined for TBEV. The ticks were tested for the presence of TBEV-RNA using a sensitive, nested-RT-PCR. The virus prevalence in the Bavarian foci of the whole tick population ranged from 0.3 to 2.0% during these four years, in adults between 1.2 and 5.3% and in nymphs between 0.1 and 1.4%. In the high-risk areas of Baden-Wuerttemberg, in the Black Forest, the estimated virus prevalence rates of investigated ticks varied from 0.2 to 3.4%, in adults from 0 to 4.8%, and in nymphs from 0.2 to 3.4%. Using the same

  5. The determinants of private medical insurance prevalence in England, 1997-2000. (United States)

    King, Derek; Mossialos, Elias


    The aim of this paper is to identify the factors that determine the prevalence of private medical insurance (PMI) in England. Secondary data sources are the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) 1997-2000, Laing's Healthcare Market Review 1999-2000, the United Kingdom (U.K.) Department of Health's National Health Service Waiting Times Team, and the Work Force Statistics Branch of the Department of Health. Logistic regression models for panel data were used to compare non-PMI subscribers with individual subscribers and those with employer-provided PMI. The BHPS data are collected by the Institute for Social and Economic Research at the University of Essex. Other data used were collected by Laing and Buisson and the U.K. Department of Health. Individual PMI is more prevalent among the well-educated and healthy. Income, age, sex, and political preference are key determinants of PMI prevalence for both individual and employer paid PMI. Individuals are also likely to reflect on information with regard to waiting times in deciding whether or not to purchase PMI cover. The withdrawal of the tax subsidy in 1997 to PMI subscribers over 60 years of age did not impact on their rate of withdrawal from PMI coverage relative to the rate among all PMI subscribers, but may have discouraged potential new subscribers. Current trends in the PMI market suggest that, over time, individually purchased PMI is likely to be partially displaced by PMI purchased as part of a company-based plan. However, having PMI is linked to economic factors in both groups, suggesting a similar segment of the population valuing the responsiveness that PMI provides. Geographic factors relating to waiting times and supply-side factors are associated with both individual and company-based PMI. The withdrawal of the tax subsidy to individual subscribers older than age of 60 resulted in a significant decline in the demand for PMI. In particular, the number of new subscribers in this group declined substantially.

  6. Factores de riesgo de bajo peso al nacer en un hospital cubano, 1997-2000

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    Escobar José Andrés Cabrales


    Full Text Available Objetivo. Identificar qué factores de riesgo materno durante el embarazo se asocian a la incidencia de bajo peso al nacer (menos de 2 500 g. Métodos. Se diseñó un estudio de casos y testigos con 764 casos de nacimiento simple con un peso al nacer de menos de 2 500 g, y 1 437 testigos del Hospital Gineco-Obstétrico Provincial de Sancti Spíritus, Cuba, durante el cuatrienio de 1997-2000. Los datos se obtuvieron de historias clínicas, registros de partos y entrevistas personales con las madres. Se realizó un análisis con dos variables y se controlaron los posibles factores de confusión mediante regresión logística dicotómica con el programa SPSS. Se usó un modelo final de múltiples variables para identificar los factores de riesgo maternos asociados con el bajo peso al nacer. Resultados. El análisis con múltiples variables mostró una asociación significativa del bajo peso al nacer con la presencia de anemia en la madre cuando se detectó el embarazo, la sepsis urinaria durante el embarazo, el asma bronquial, un aumento de peso materno menor de 8 kg durante todo el embarazo, el hábito de fumar durante el mismo, antecedentes de bajo peso al nacer en partos anteriores, la presencia de hipertensión arterial desde antes de la gestación y la consulta prenatal extemporánea. Conclusiones. A partir de estos resultados se concluyó que, independientemente de la medida de impacto utilizada, es importante tratar de disminuir los factores de riesgo identificados a fin de reducir la incidencia del bajo peso al nacer en la provincia de Sancti Spíritus.

  7. Factores de riesgo de bajo peso al nacer en un hospital cubano, 1997-2000

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    José Andrés Cabrales Escobar


    Full Text Available Objetivo. Identificar qué factores de riesgo materno durante el embarazo se asocian a la incidencia de bajo peso al nacer (menos de 2 500 g. Métodos. Se diseñó un estudio de casos y testigos con 764 casos de nacimiento simple con un peso al nacer de menos de 2 500 g, y 1 437 testigos del Hospital Gineco-Obstétrico Provincial de Sancti Spíritus, Cuba, durante el cuatrienio de 1997-2000. Los datos se obtuvieron de historias clínicas, registros de partos y entrevistas personales con las madres. Se realizó un análisis con dos variables y se controlaron los posibles factores de confusión mediante regresión logística dicotómica con el programa SPSS. Se usó un modelo final de múltiples variables para identificar los factores de riesgo maternos asociados con el bajo peso al nacer. Resultados. El análisis con múltiples variables mostró una asociación significativa del bajo peso al nacer con la presencia de anemia en la madre cuando se detectó el embarazo, la sepsis urinaria durante el embarazo, el asma bronquial, un aumento de peso materno menor de 8 kg durante todo el embarazo, el hábito de fumar durante el mismo, antecedentes de bajo peso al nacer en partos anteriores, la presencia de hipertensión arterial desde antes de la gestación y la consulta prenatal extemporánea. Conclusiones. A partir de estos resultados se concluyó que, independientemente de la medida de impacto utilizada, es importante tratar de disminuir los factores de riesgo identificados a fin de reducir la incidencia del bajo peso al nacer en la provincia de Sancti Spíritus.

  8. Levels of persistent fluorinated, chlorinated and brominated compounds in human blood collected in Sweden in 1997-2000

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    Lindstroem, G.; Kaerrman, A.; Bavel, B. van [MTM Research Centre, Oerebro Univ. (Sweden); Hardell, L. [Dept. of Oncology, Univ. Hospital, Oerebro (Sweden); Hedlund, B. [Environmental Monitoring Section, Swedish EPA, Stockholm (Sweden)


    Levels of persistent fluorinated, chlorinated and brominated compounds in blood collected from the Swedish population have been determined in connection with several exposure and monitoring studies at the MTM Research Centre. A data base with 631 individual congener specific measurements on halogenated POPs such as dioxins, PCBs, HCB, DDE, chlordanes, PBDEs and PFAs including information on residency, age, BMI, diet, occupation, number of children, smoking habits, immunological status etc. has been compiled from samples collected between 1994 and 2004. A brief overview focusing on levels of some persistent chlorinated, brominated and fluorinated, compounds in blood collected in a background population group (n=83) in 1997-2000 is given here.

  9. Tratamento cirúrgico da atresia de vias biliares: a experiência do hospital municipal jesus, 1997-2000


    Jesus, Lisieux Eyer de; Monteiro, Paulo Cesar Costa


    OBJETIVO: Analisar a indicação, resultados e limitações da portoenterostomia para o tratamento da atresia de vias biliares em hospital infantil terciário no Rio de Janeiro-RJ/Brasil. MÉTODO: Foram estudados prospectivamente oito pacientes submetidos à portoenterostomia do tipo Kasai 1, num período de três anos (1997-2000). Todos foram submetidos à antibioticoterapia profilática, uso de colerético, reavaliação médica mensal nos primeiros seis meses de seguimento e reavaliação laboratorial, ult...

  10. Where was ENSO strongest? (United States)

    Cane, M. A.; Chen, D.; Kaplan, A.


    Mark A. Cane, Dake Chen, Alexey Kaplan The description of this session begins: "Historical SST records suggest that for the past three decades, ENSO has been anomalously strong" and goes on to ask why. In this talk we dispute this interpretation of the historical record from within the historical record. In particular, we suggest that the most "anomalously strong" period in the historical ENSO record is the late nineteenth century. This claim requires a discussion of how we measure "ENSO strength". We also speculate on possible reasons for the strength of ENSO in this earlier period. Finally, we consult the models, and in reiteration of the collective conclusion of all speakers at this session, find that the riddles the models provide are inelegant and disobliging, lacking the cryptic wisdom of the classical oracles.

  11. Heartbeat of the Southern Oscillation explains ENSO climatic resonances (United States)

    Bruun, John T.; Allen, J. Icarus; Smyth, Timothy J.


    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) nonlinear oscillator phenomenon has a far reaching influence on the climate and human activities. The up to 10 year quasi-period cycle of the El Niño and subsequent La Niña is known to be dominated in the tropics by nonlinear physical interaction of wind with the equatorial waveguide in the Pacific. Long-term cyclic phenomena do not feature in the current theory of the ENSO process. We update the theory by assessing low (>10 years) and high (features. The observational data sets of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), North Pacific Index Anomaly, and ENSO Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly, as well as a theoretical model all confirm the existence of long-term and short-term climatic cycles of the ENSO process with resonance frequencies of {2.5, 3.8, 5, 12-14, 61-75, 180} years. This fundamental result shows long-term and short-term signal coupling with mode locking across the dominant ENSO dynamics. These dominant oscillation frequency dynamics, defined as ENSO frequency states, contain a stable attractor with three frequencies in resonance allowing us to coin the term Heartbeat of the Southern Oscillation due to its characteristic shape. We predict future ENSO states based on a stable hysteresis scenario of short-term and long-term ENSO oscillations over the next century.Plain Language SummaryThe Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) nonlinear oscillator phenomenon has a far reaching influence on the climate and our human activities. This work can help predict both long-term and short-term future ENSO events and to assess the risk of future climate hysteresis changes: is the elastic band that regulates the ENSO climate breaking? We update the current theory of the ENSO process with a sophisticated analysis approach (Dominant Frequency State Analysis) to include long-term oscillations (up to 200 years) as well as tropical and extratropical interaction dynamics. The analysis uses instrumental and paleoproxy data

  12. A retrospective study of presentation, treatment, and outcome of free-ranging raptors in Greece (1997-2000). (United States)

    Komnenou, A Th; Georgopoulou, I; Savvas, I; Dessiris, A


    A retrospective study was conducted on free-ranging raptors (n = 402) presented to the Veterinary Medical Teaching Hospital, School of Veterinary Medicine, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece, during a 3-yr period (1997-2000). Representatives of 19 species were admitted from taxonomic orders Accipitriformes (n = 295), Falconiformes (n = 35), and Strigiformes (n = 72). Traumatic injuries (n = 305, 75.8%) were the most common cause of presentation in all raptors. Starvation (n = 38 birds, 9.4%) was the second most common reason, whereas toxicoses (n = 28, 6.9%) were suspected in a limited number of birds. Orphans (n = 31, 7.7%) were presented during breeding season primarily because of inappropriate human intervention. Surgical and medical treatment was given to all birds when necessary. In total, 229 (56.9%) of the presented raptors were successfully rehabilitated and released, 121 (30%) were rehabilitated but nonreleasable, whereas 52 (12.9%) of them died despite treatment. Human intervention (79.2%) plays the most important role in birds of prey morbidity and mortality.

  13. Tratamento cirúrgico da atresia de vias biliares: a experiência do hospital municipal jesus, 1997-2000

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    Lisieux Eyer de Jesus

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Analisar a indicação, resultados e limitações da portoenterostomia para o tratamento da atresia de vias biliares em hospital infantil terciário no Rio de Janeiro-RJ/Brasil. MÉTODO: Foram estudados prospectivamente oito pacientes submetidos à portoenterostomia do tipo Kasai 1, num período de três anos (1997-2000. Todos foram submetidos à antibioticoterapia profilática, uso de colerético, reavaliação médica mensal nos primeiros seis meses de seguimento e reavaliação laboratorial, ultra-sonográfica e através de endoscopia digestiva alta em prazos programados. RESULTADOS: Em cinco pacientes foi possível obter drenagem biliar estável e satisfatória por > 6 meses pós-operatórios. Quatro faleceram no período de observação (um por insuficiência hepática, um por colangite, dois por hemorragias digestivas, inclusive os três pacientes em que não foi obtida drenagem biliar satisfatória. Quatro persistem em bom estado geral, anictéricos, um deles com fibrose hepática residual grave e provável indicação futura de transplante hepático. Detectamos problemas graves com relação ao encaminhamento tardio de doentes para tratamento e para disponibilizar transplante hepático quando necessário. CONCLUSÕES: Os resultados da portoenterostomia são compensadores quando é possível obter bom débito biliar no pós-operatório. Em pacientes em que não é obtida boa drenagem biliar o pós-operatório é tormentoso e o óbito é esperado até o segundo ano de vida sem o uso de transplante hepático. É necessário disponibilizar transplante hepático pediátrico em nosso meio e conscientizar a comunidade médica para o encaminhamento precoce de bebês ictéricos além dos primeiros 15 dias de vida para investigação e tratamento em unidades especializadas.

  14. Impact of global warming on ENSO phase change

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    W. Cabos Narvaez


    Full Text Available We compare the physical mechanisms involved in the generation and decay of ENSO events in a control (present day conditions and Scenario (Is92a, IPCC 1996 simulations performed with the coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM ECHAM4-OPYC3. A clustering technique which objectively discriminates common features in the evolution of the Tropical Pacific Heat Content anomalies leading to the peak of ENSO events allows us to group into a few classes the ENSO events occurring in 240 years of data in the control and scenario runs. In both simulations, the composites of the groups show differences in the generation and development of ENSO. We present the changes in the statistics of the groups and explore the possible mechanisms involved.

  15. Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (United States)

    Organization Search Go Search the CPC Go Expert Assessments ENSO Diagnostic Discussion Archive About Us Our Assessments > ENSO Diagnostic Discussion El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion PDF : English Version Spanish Version Adobe PDF Reader (Click icon for Adobe PDF Reader) Word: English Version

  16. The preconditioning role of Tropical Atlantic Variability in the development of the ENSO teleconnection: implications for the prediction of Nordeste rainfall (United States)

    Giannini, A.; Saravanan, R.; Chang, P.

    A comparison of rainfall variability in the semi-arid Brazilian Nordeste in observations and in two sets of model simulations leads to the conclusion that the evolving interaction between Tropical Atlantic Variability (TAV) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon can explain two puzzling features of ENSO's impact on the Nordeste: (1) the event-to-event unpredictability of ENSO's impact; (2) the greater impact of cold rather than warm ENSO events during the past 50 years. The explanation is in the `preconditioning' role of Tropical Atlantic Variability. When, in seasons prior to the mature phase of ENSO, the tropical Atlantic happens to be evolving consistently with the development expected of the ENSO teleconnection, ENSO and TAV add up to force large anomalies in Nordeste rainfall. When it happens to be evolving in opposition to the canonical development of ENSO, then the net outcome is less obvious, but also less anomalous. The more frequent occurrence of tropical Atlantic conditions consistent with those that develop during a cold ENSO event, i.e. of a negative meridional sea surface temperature gradient, explains the weaker warm ENSO and stronger cold ENSO anomalies in Nordeste rainfall of the latter part of the twentieth century. Close monitoring of the evolution of the tropical Atlantic in seasons prior to the mature phase of ENSO should lead to an enhanced forecast potential.

  17. An exploratory modeling study on bio-physical processes associated with ENSO (United States)

    Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Park, Young-Gyu


    Variability of marine phytoplankton associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and potential biological feedbacks onto ENSO are investigated by performing coupled ocean/biogeochemical model experiments forced by realistic surface winds from 1951 to 2010. The ocean model used in this study is the MOM4, which is coupled to a biogeochemical model, called TOPAZ (Tracers in the Ocean with Allometric Zooplankton). In general, it is shown that MOM4-TOPAZ mimics the observed main features of phytoplankton variability associated with ENSO. By comparing the actively coupled MOM4-TOPAZ experiment with the ocean model experiments using prescribed chlorophyll concentrations, potential impacts of phytoplankton on ENSO are evaluated. We found that chlorophyll generally increases mean sea surface temperature (SST) and decreases subsurface temperature by altering the penetration of solar radiation. However, as the chlorophyll concentration increases, the equatorial Pacific SST decreases due to the enhanced upwelling of the cooler subsurface water with shoaling of mixed layer and thermocline. The presence of chlorophyll generally intensifies ENSO amplitude by changing the ocean basic state. On the other hand, interactively varying chlorophyll associated with the ENSO tends to reduce ENSO amplitude. Therefore, the two biological effects on SST are competing against each other regarding the SST variance in the equatorial Pacific.

  18. Air-temperature variations and ENSO effects in Indonesia, the Philippines and El Salvador. ENSO patterns and changes from 1866-1993 (United States)

    Harger, J. R. E.

    The major features in development of the "El Nino-Southern Oscillation" (ENSO) involve oscillation of the Pacific ocean-atmosphere in an essentially unpredictable (chaotic) fashion. The system moves between extremes of the so-called "warm events" lasting one or two years and involving movement of warm sea water from the western Pacific along the equator to impact on the west coast of the American continent and "cold-events" associated with easterly trade-wind-induced flows of colder water from the eastern Pacific towards the west. Historical data indicate that ENSO years as experienced by the Island of Java are either much warmer than non-ENSO years or only slightly, if at all, warmer than normal (non-ENSO) years. Hot-dry years within the ENSO warm event cycle are almost always followed by cooler wet years and vice versa. This pattern also extends to include the year immediately following the terminal year of an ENSO warm event set. The initial year of an ENSO warm event set may be either hot with a long dry season or relatively cool (nearer to the temperature of a non-ENSO year) and having a short dry season. In recent years, since 1950, of the 9 ENSO warm events, the initial year tends to have been hot and dry for 6 (1951, 1957, 1963, 1972, 1982, 1991) and neutral or cool and wet for 3 (1968, 1976, 1986). An area of 88,000 ha burned in 1991 (Jakarta Post 30 November 1991) largely in Kalimantan in association with the 1991-1992 ENSO event, an extensive pall of smoke developed over Kalimantan, Singapore and Malaysia during September-October of 1991. Surface vegetation-based fires continued to burn in East Kalimantan as of 29 April 1992 and extended into the 1992 dry season, in response to the ENSO conditions carrying forward from 1991. The increasing annual trend in air-temperature exhibited by the mean monthly values over the period 1866-1993, for the Jakarta and the Semarang data taken together is 1.64°C (0.0132°C per year from 25.771 to 27.409°C). The major

  19. Climate Prediction Center - The ENSO Cycle (United States)

    Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News Web resources and services. HOME > El Niño/La Niña > The ENSO Cycle ENSO Cycle Banner Climate for Weather and Climate Prediction Climate Prediction Center 5830 University Research Court College

  20. Different impacts of mega-ENSO and conventional ENSO on the Indian summer rainfall: developing phase (United States)

    Zhang, Lei; Wu, Zhiwei; Zhou, Yefan


    Mega-El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a boarder version of conventional ENSO, is found to be a main driving force of Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon rainfall including the Indian summer rainfall (ISR). The simultaneous impacts of "pure" mega-ENSO and "pure" conventional ENSO events on the ISR in its developing summer remains unclear. This study examines the different linkages between mega-ENSO-ISR and conventional ENSO-ISR. During the developing summer of mega-El Niño, negative rainfall anomalies are seen over the northeastern Indian subcontinent, while the anomalous rainfall pattern is almost the opposite for mega-La Niña; as for the conventional ENSO, the approximate "linear opposite" phenomenon vanishes. Furthermore, the global zonal wave trains anomalous are found at mid-latitude zones, with a local triple circulation pattern over the central-east Eurasia during mega-ENSO events, which might be an explanation of corresponding rainfall response over the Indian Peninsula. Among 106-year historical run (1900-2005) of 9 state-of-the-art models from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), HadGEM2-ES performs a promising skill in simulating the anomalous circulation pattern over mid-latitude and central-east Eurasia while CanESM2 cannot. Probably, it is the models' ability of capturing the mega-ENSO-ISR linkage and the characteristic of mega-ENSO that make the difference.

  1. ENSO, IOD and Indian Summer Monsoon in NCEP climate forecast system

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    Pokhrel, Samir; Chaudhari, H.S.; Saha, Subodh K.; Dhakate, Ashish; Yadav, R.K.; Salunke, Kiran; Mahapatra, S.; Rao, Suryachandra A. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pashan, Pune (India)


    El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall features are explored statistically and dynamically using National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFSv1) freerun in relation to observations. The 100 years of freerun provides a sufficiently long homogeneous data set to find out the mean state, periodicity, coherence among these climatic events and also the influence of ENSO and IOD on the Indian monsoon. Differences in the occurrence of seasonal precipitation between the observations and CFS freerun are examined as a coupled ocean-atmosphere system. CFS simulated ENSO and IOD patterns and their associated tropical Walker and regional Hadley circulation in pure ENSO (PEN), pure IOD (PIO) and coexisting ENSO-IOD (PEI) events have some similarity to the observations. PEN composites are much closer to the observation as compared to PIO and PEI composites, which suggest a better ENSO prediction and its associated teleconnections as compared to IOD and combined phenomenon. Similar to the observation, the model simulation also show that the decrease in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall during ENSO phases is associated with a descending motion of anomalous Walker circulation and the increase in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall during IOD phase is associated with the ascending branch of anomalous regional Hadley circulation. During co-existing ENSO and IOD years, however, the fate of Indian summer monsoon is dictated by the combined influence of both of them. The shift in the anomalous descending and ascending branches of the Walker and Hadley circulation may be somewhat attributed to the cold (warm) bias over eastern (western) equatorial Indian Ocean basin, respectively in the model. This study will be useful for identifying some of the limitations of the CFS model and consequently it will be helpful in improving the model to unravel the realistic coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions

  2. Decadal Monsoon-ENSO Relationships Reexamined (United States)

    Yun, Kyung-Sook; Timmermann, Axel


    The strength of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) relationship shows considerable decadal fluctuations, which have been previously linked to low-frequency climatic processes such as shifts in ENSO's center of action or the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. However, random variability can also cause similar variations in the relationship between climate phenomena. Here we propose a statistical test to determine whether the observed time-evolving correlations between ENSO and ISMR are different from those expected from a simple stochastic null hypothesis model. The analysis focuses on the time evolution of moving correlations, their expected variance, and probabilities for rapid transitions. The results indicate that the time evolution of the observed running correlation between these climate modes is indistinguishable from a system in which the ISMR signal can be expressed as a stochastically perturbed ENSO signal. This challenges previous deterministic interpretations. Our results are further corroborated by the analysis of climate model simulations.

  3. The natural oscillation of two types of ENSO events based on analyses of CMIP5 model control runs (United States)

    Xu, Kang; Su, Jingzhi; Zhu, Congwen


    The eastern- and central-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation (EP- and CP-ENSO) have been found to be dominant in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and are characterized by interannual and decadal oscillation, respectively. In the present study, we defined the EP- and CP-ENSO modes by singular value decomposition (SVD) between SST and sea level pressure (SLP) anomalous fields. We evaluated the natural features of these two types of ENSO modes as simulated by the pre-industrial control runs of 20 models involved in phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The results suggested that all the models show good skill in simulating the SST and SLP anomaly dipolar structures for the EP-ENSO mode, but only 12 exhibit good performance in simulating the tripolar CP-ENSO modes. Wavelet analysis suggested that the ensemble principal components in these 12 models exhibit an interannual and multi-decadal oscillation related to the EP- and CP-ENSO, respectively. Since there are no changes in external forcing in the pre-industrial control runs, such a result implies that the decadal oscillation of CP-ENSO is possibly a result of natural climate variability rather than external forcing.

  4. The interdecadal changes of south pacific sea surface temperature in the mid-1990s and their connections with ENSO (United States)

    Li, Gang; Li, Chongyin; Tan, Yanke; Bai, Tao


    The characteristic changes of South Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) for the period January 1979 to December 2011, during which the 1990s Pacific pan-decadal variability (PDV) interdecadal regime shifts occurred, were examined. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis was applied to the monthly mean SSTA for two sub-periods: January 1979 to December 1994 (P1) and January 1996 to December 2011 (P2). Both the spatial and temporal features of the leading EOF mode for P1 and P2 showed a remarkable difference. The spatial structure of the leading EOF changed from a tripolar pattern for P1 (EOF-P1) to a dipole-like pattern for P2 (EOF-P2). Besides, EOF-P1 (EOF-P2) had significant spectral peaks at 4.6 yr (2.7 yr). EOF-P2 not only had a closer association with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but also showed a faster response to ENSO than EOF-P1 based on their lead-lag relationships with ENSO. During the development of ENSO, the South Pacific SSTA associated with ENSO for both P1 and P2 showed a significant eastward propagation. However, after the peak of ENSO, EOF-P1 showed a stronger persistence than EOF-P2, which still showed eastward propagation. The variability of the SSTA associated with the whole process of ENSO evolution during P1 and the SSTA associated with the development of ENSO during P2 support the existence of ocean-to-atmosphere forcing, but the SSTA associated with the decay of ENSO shows the phenomenon of atmosphere-to-ocean forcing.


    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Xiao-yan; ZHAI Pan-mao; REN Fu-min


    Through studying changes in ENSO indices relative to change of climate reference from 1961~1990 to 1971~2000, the study generated new standards to define ENSO episodes and their intensities. Then according to the new climate references and new index standards, ENSO episodes and their intensities for the period 1951 -2003 have been classified. Finally, an analysis has been performed comparing the new characteristics with the old ones for ENSO period, peak values and intensities.

  6. ENSO Dynamics and Trends, AN Alternate View (United States)

    Rojo Hernandez, J. D.; Lall, U.; Mesa, O. J.


    El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important inter-annual climate fluctuation on a planetary level with great effects on the hydrological cycle, agriculture, ecosystems, health and society. This work demonstrates the use of the Non-Homogeneus hidden Markov Models (NHMM) to characterize ENSO using a set of discrete states with variable transition probabilities matrix using the data of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) of the Kaplan Extended SST v2 between 120E -90W, 15N-15S from Jan-1856 to Dec-2016. ENSO spatial patterns, their temporal distribution, the transition probabilities between patterns and their temporal evolution are the main results of the NHHMM applied to ENSO. The five "hidden" states found appear to represent the different "Flavors" described in the literature: the Canonical El Niño, Central El Niño, a Neutral state, Central La Niña and the Canonical Niña. Using the whole record length of the SSTA it was possible to identify trends in the dynamic system, with a decrease in the probability of occurrence of the cold events and a significant increase of the warm events, in particular of Central El Niño events whose probability of occurrence has increased Dramatically since 1960 coupled with increases in global temperature.

  7. An ENSO beginning in the year 2000?

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gopinathan, C.K.

    Several models have been developed over the last few decades to predict the advent of new ENSO events several months in advance of the actual event. None of the models have predicted a warm event beginning by the year 2000. Positive SST anomalies...

  8. Present El Niño-ENSO events and past Super-ENSO events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)


    Full Text Available LES ÉVÉNEMENTS ENSO ACTUELS ET LES ANCIENS ÉVÉNEMENTS SUPER-ENSO. Les événements ENSO actuels et les anciens événements Super-ENSO représentent la redistribution d’énergie et de masse dans le système terrestre, due à l’échange de momentum angulaire entre la Terre “solide” et l’hydrosphère. Les événements El Niño-ENSO actuels montrent une corrélation claire avec des décélérations interannuelles de la vitesse de rotation de la Terre: la durée du jour (LOD augmente. Bien qu’il soit généralement considéré que ces changements de rotation sont causés par l’échange de momentum angulaire avec l’atmosphère, nous démontrons ici qu’une grande partie, peut-être la majeure partie, des variations du LOD sont causées en réalité par l’échange du momentum angulaire entre la terre “solide” et l’hydrosphère dans un systéme couplé de régénération. Ce mécanisme agit aussi sur des échelles de temps qui vont de la décennie au siècle, provoquant des événements Super-ENSO. Plusieurs de ces événements ont été identifiés au cours de l’Holocène. Un événement de plus grande envergure a eu lieu à l’ère médiévale. Au cours de la période qui va de 13.5 à 9.5 Ka, les changements importants peuvent représenter des événements Mega-ENSO. Au cours des âges glaciaires, avec une vitesse de rotation plus grande, il est probable que les événements ENSO-El Niño furent absents. Dans les enregistrements du passé, de courte durée, les empreintes d’événements Super-ENSO doivent étre beaucoup plus fréquents que ceux de véritables ENSO interannuels, simplement parce que ces derniers sont trop brefs et généralement trop légers. ACTUALES EVENTOS EL NIÑO-ENSO Y ANTIGUOS EVENTOS SUPER-ENSO. Los actuales eventos ENSO y los antiguos eventos Super-ENSO representan la redistribución de energía y masa en el sistema terrestre, debido al intercambio de momento angular entre la Tierra “sólida” y la

  9. The ENSO Impact on Predicting World Cocoa Prices


    Ubilava, David; Helmers, Claes Gustav


    Cocoa beans are produced in equatorial and sub-equatorial regions of West Africa, Southeast Asia and South America. These are also the regions most affected by El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) -- a climatic anomaly affecting temperature and precipitation in many parts of the world. Thus, ENSO, has a potential of affecting cocoa production and, subsequently, prices on the world market. This study investigates the benefits of using a measure of ENSO variable in world cocoa price forecasting ...

  10. ENSO Atmospheric Teleconnections and Their Response to Greenhouse Gas Forcing (United States)

    Yeh, Sang-Wook; Cai, Wenju; Min, Seung-Ki; McPhaden, Michael J.; Dommenget, Dietmar; Dewitte, Boris; Collins, Matthew; Ashok, Karumuri; An, Soon-Il; Yim, Bo-Young; Kug, Jong-Seong


    El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most prominent year-to-year climate fluctuation on Earth, alternating between anomalously warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) sea surface temperature (SST) conditions in the tropical Pacific. ENSO exerts its impacts on remote regions of the globe through atmospheric teleconnections, affecting extreme weather events worldwide. However, these teleconnections are inherently nonlinear and sensitive to ENSO SST anomaly patterns and amplitudes. In addition, teleconnections are modulated by variability in the oceanic and atmopsheric mean state outside the tropics and by land and sea ice extent. The character of ENSO as well as the ocean mean state have changed since the 1990s, which might be due to either natural variability or anthropogenic forcing, or their combined influences. This has resulted in changes in ENSO atmospheric teleconnections in terms of precipitation and temperature in various parts of the globe. In addition, changes in ENSO teleconnection patterns have affected their predictability and the statistics of extreme events. However, the short observational record does not allow us to clearly distinguish which changes are robust and which are not. Climate models suggest that ENSO teleconnections will change because the mean atmospheric circulation will change due to anthropogenic forcing in the 21st century, which is independent of whether ENSO properties change or not. However, future ENSO teleconnection changes do not currently show strong intermodel agreement from region to region, highlighting the importance of identifying factors that affect uncertainty in future model projections.

  11. Is ENSO related to 2015 Easter Star Capsized on the Yangtze River of China? (United States)

    Xie, P.


    Natural disasters have profound effects on community security and economic damage of China's Hubei province. In June 1st, 2015, a cruise ship, Easter Star, capsized on Yangtze River in Hubei province with 442 died. What reason gives rise to such strong convection causing ship sunk? Based on the wind disasters of Hubei province happened in 1963-2015, this study analyzes their features bytime-series regression, and correlates them to global El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The compared results demonstrated that the wind disasters shown an increasing tendency. There are two peaks corresponding to the strongest ENSO peaks during the past 50 years; each peak lasts two-three years. The facts demonstrated an essential linear relation between the ENSO phenomena and wind disasters in Hubei province. 2015 Easter Star capsized happened at current El Niño event in 2014-2015. We also observed that the historical wind disasters appeared in seasonal variation. Over 90% events concentrated in spring and summer; very few events happened in autumn and winter. Moreover, the disasters depend on the geographic conditions. Most disasters concentrated in four zones, named as Xingshan-Baokang, Xuanen, Wufeng-Yichang, Jingzhou-Gongan, in which Xingshan and Changyang are the two most density of zones. Yangtze River provides an air flowing conduct for strong convective winds. It can be concluded that the strong convection causing 2015 Easter Star capsized is related to current global ENSO phenomenon.Keywords: ENSO, wind disaster, time-series regression analysis, Easter Star, Yangtze River, Hubei Province,

  12. ENSO Diversity Changes Due To Global Warming In CESM-LE (United States)

    Carreric, A.; Dewitte, B.; Guemas, V.


    The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is predicted to be modified due to global warming based on the CMIP3 and CMIP5 data bases. In particular the frequency of occurrence of extreme Eastern Pacific El Niño events is to double in the future in response to the increase in green-house gazes. Such forecast relies however on state-of-the-art models that still present mean state biases and do not simulate realistically key features of El Niño events such as its diversity which is related to the existence of at least two types of El Niño events, the Eastern Pacific (EP) El Nino and the Central Pacific (CP) El Niño events. Here we take advantage of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble (LE) that provides 35 realizations of the climate of the 1920-2100 period with a combination of both natural and anthropogenic climate forcing factors, to explore on the one hand methods to detect changes in ENSO statistics and on the other hand to investigate changes in thermodynamical processes associated to the increase oceanic stratification owed to global warming. The CESM simulates realistically many aspects of the ENSO diversity, in particular the non-linear evolution of the phase space of the first two EOF modes of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific. Based on indices accounting for the two ENSO regimes used in the literature, we show that, although there is no statistically significant (i.e. confidence level > 95%) changes in the occurrence of El Niño types from the present to the future climate, the estimate of the changes is sensitive to the definition of ENSO indices that is used. CESM simulates in particular an increase occurrence of extreme El Niño events that can vary by 28% from one method to the other. It is shown that the seasonal evolution of EP El Niño events is modified from the present to the future climate, with in particular a larger occurrence of events taking place in Austral summer in the warmer climate

  13. Salinity anomaly as a trigger for ENSO events. (United States)

    Zhu, Jieshun; Huang, Bohua; Zhang, Rong-Hua; Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Kumar, Arun; Balmaseda, Magdalena A; Marx, Lawrence; Kinter, James L


    According to the classical theories of ENSO, subsurface anomalies in ocean thermal structure are precursors for ENSO events and their initial specification is essential for skillful ENSO forecast. Although ocean salinity in the tropical Pacific (particularly in the western Pacific warm pool) can vary in response to El Niño events, its effect on ENSO evolution and forecasts of ENSO has been less explored. Here we present evidence that, in addition to the passive response, salinity variability may also play an active role in ENSO evolution, and thus important in forecasting El Niño events. By comparing two forecast experiments in which the interannually variability of salinity in the ocean initial states is either included or excluded, the salinity variability is shown to be essential to correctly forecast the 2007/08 La Niña starting from April 2007. With realistic salinity initial states, the tendency to decay of the subsurface cold condition during the spring and early summer 2007 was interrupted by positive salinity anomalies in the upper central Pacific, which working together with the Bjerknes positive feedback, contributed to the development of the La Niña event. Our study suggests that ENSO forecasts will benefit from more accurate salinity observations with large-scale spatial coverage.

  14. DMS role in ENSO cycle in the tropics: DMS Role in ENSO Cycle in Tropics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Li [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Now at Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine California USA; Cameron-Smith, Philip [Atmospheric, Earth and Energy Division, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore California USA; Russell, Lynn M. [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Ghan, Steven J. [Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Liu, Ying [Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Elliott, Scott [Climate Ocean Sea Ice Modeling, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos New Mexico USA; Yang, Yang [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Lou, Sijia [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Lamjiri, Maryam A. [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Manizza, Manfredi [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA


    We examined the multiyear mean and variability of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and its relationship to sulfate aerosols, as well as cloud microphysical and radiative properties. We conducted a 150 year simulation using preindustrial conditions produced by the Community Earth System Model embedded with a dynamic DMS module. The model simulated the mean spatial distribution of DMS emissions and burden, as well as sulfur budgets associated with DMS, SO2, H2SO4, and sulfate that were generally similar to available observations and inventories for a variety of regions. Changes in simulated sea-to-air DMS emissions and associated atmospheric abundance, along with associated aerosols and cloud and radiative properties, were consistently dominated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle in the tropical Pacific region. Simulated DMS, aerosols, and clouds showed a weak positive feedback on sea surface temperature. This feedback suggests a link among DMS, aerosols, clouds, and climate on interannual timescales. The variability of DMS emissions associated with ENSO was primarily caused by a higher variation in wind speed during La Niña events. The simulation results also suggest that variations in DMS emissions increase the frequency of La Niña events but do not alter ENSO variability in terms of the standard deviation of the Niño 3 sea surface temperature anomalies.

  15. Solar cycle modulation of ENSO variability (United States)

    Kodera, Kunihiko; Thiéblemont, Rémi


    Inspired by the work of Labitzke and van Loon on solar/QBO modulation in the stratosphere, Barnett (1989) conducted an investigation on the relationship between the the biannual component of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial eastern Pacific and the solar activity. He found that the amplitude of biannual component of the SST (BO) is modulated by the 11-year solar cycle: the amplitude of the BO is large during a period of low solar activity, but small during high solar activity. More than 25-years or two solar cycle has passed since his finding, but the relationship still holds. In order to get an insight into the mechanism of the solar modulation of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), here we have revisited this problem. Solar cycle modulation of the BO in the tropical SST is discernible since the end of the 19th centuries, but the amplitude modulation is particularly clear after 1960's. The composite analysis of the SST based on the amplitude of the BO during 1958-2012, indicates that the amplitude of BO is larger when the equatorial Pacific temperature anomalies are high in the central Pacific, but low in the eastern Pacific. Central Pacific anomalies extend to the northern hemisphere, while those in the central Pacific spread toward the southern hemisphere. In short, this anomalous SST pattern is similar to the El Niño modoki. In this connection, it should be noted that the solar signal in the tropical SST also exhibits a similar pattern. This suggests that the modulation of the ENSO variability by the solar cycle originates through a modulation of the El Niño Modoki rather than the canonical El Nino.

  16. Mean Bias in Seasonal Forecast Model and ENSO Prediction Error. (United States)

    Kim, Seon Tae; Jeong, Hye-In; Jin, Fei-Fei


    This study uses retrospective forecasts made using an APEC Climate Center seasonal forecast model to investigate the cause of errors in predicting the amplitude of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-driven sea surface temperature variability. When utilizing Bjerknes coupled stability (BJ) index analysis, enhanced errors in ENSO amplitude with forecast lead times are found to be well represented by those in the growth rate estimated by the BJ index. ENSO amplitude forecast errors are most strongly associated with the errors in both the thermocline slope response and surface wind response to forcing over the tropical Pacific, leading to errors in thermocline feedback. This study concludes that upper ocean temperature bias in the equatorial Pacific, which becomes more intense with increasing lead times, is a possible cause of forecast errors in the thermocline feedback and thus in ENSO amplitude.

  17. Change of ENSO characteristics in response to global warming (United States)

    Sun, X.; Xia, Y.; Yan, Y.; Feng, W.; Huang, F.; Yang, X. Q.


    By using datasets of HadISST monthly SST from 1895 to 2014 and 600-year simulations of two CESM model experiments with/without doubling of CO2 concentration, ENSO characteristics are compared pre- and post- global warming. The main results are as follows. Due to global warming, the maximum climatological SST warming occurs in the tropical western Pacific (La Niña-like background warming) and the tropical eastern Pacific (El Niño-like background warming) for observations and model, respectively, resulting in opposite zonal SST gradient anomalies in the tropical Pacific. The La Niña-like background warming induces intense surface divergence in the tropical central Pacific, which enhances the easterly trade winds in the tropical central-western Pacific and shifts the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling westward, correspondingly. On the contrary, the El Niño-like background warming causes westerly winds in the whole tropical Pacific and moves the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling eastward. Under the La Niña-like background warming, ENSO tends to develop and mature in the tropical central Pacific, because the background easterly wind anomaly weakens the ENSO-induced westerly wind anomaly in the tropical western Pacific, leading to the so-called "Central Pacific ENSO (CP ENSO)". However, the so-called "Eastern Pacific ENSO (EP ENSO)" is likely formed due to increased westerly wind anomaly by the El Niño-like background warming. ENSO lifetime is significantly extended under both the El Niño-like and the La Niña-like background warmings, and especially, it can be prolonged by up to 3 months in the situation of El Niño-like background warming. The prolonged El Nino lifetime mainly applies to extreme El Niño events, which is caused by earlier outbreak of the westerly wind bursts, shallower climatological thermocline depth and weaker "discharge" rate of the ENSO warm signal in response to global warming. Results from both observations and the model also show that

  18. ENSO events are induced by the Global Atmosphere Oscillation (United States)

    Serykh, Ilya; Byshev, Vladimir; Neiman, Victor; Romanov, Juri


    The large-scale anomalies in the planetary fields of the principal hydro-meteorological characteristics were found to appear prior the beginning and during the main phase of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean. The anomalies were interpreted as manifestation of the interannual Global Atmosphere Oscillation (GAO) in dynamics of the modern climatic system. The key feature of the GAO baric structure is a large-scale positive anomaly in tropical area (30N-30S, 50W-170E) surrounded by negative anomaly bending its outer boundaries. Eventually, such reconstruction of the atmospheric pressure field over tropical zone as a consequence of the GAO leads to Walker circulation cell reversal which is immediately followed by the next El Niño process starting. Spatio-temporal structure of the anomalous hydro-meteorological fields developing under impact of the GAO was analyzed using the monthly-mean atmospheric pressure data at sea level (HadSLP2) and near-surface temperature (CRUTEM4) prepared by GB Met Office Hadley Centre for period of 1948-2012, also we used wind data from US NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the same period. Due to the presence of feed-forwards and feedbacks in the climate dynamics, the large-scale anomalies of characteristics appearing after the GAO cause their back effect on the system of interaction of the ocean-atmosphere-land. This is the secondary impact which can be implemented either by direct exchange of properties between the adjacent areas (this is seen most explicitly in the Indo-Pacific Region), or owing to teleconnections between the concrete climatic subsystems in different parts of the Earth. It is apparently that the secondary, or indirect, GAO impact spreading through the system of general atmospheric circulation has a certain phase shift in different areas, which depends first on the distance from the respective climatic anomalies, in particular, from the most intensive of them, appearing in the equatorial

  19. Interdecadal variations of ENSO around 1999/2000 (United States)

    Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Kumar, Arun; Huang, Bohua; Zhu, Jieshun; Ren, Hong-Li


    This paper discusses the interdecadal changes of the climate in the tropical Pacific with a focus on the corresponding changes in the characteristics of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Compared with 1979-1999, the whole tropical Pacific climate system, including both the ocean and atmosphere, shifted to a lower variability regime after 1999/2000. Meanwhile, the frequency of ENSO became less regular and was closer to a white noise process. The lead time of the equatorial Pacific's subsurface ocean heat content in preceding ENSO decreased remarkably, in addition to a reduction in the maximum correlation between them. The weakening of the correlation and the shortening of the lead time pose more challenges for ENSO prediction, and is the likely reason behind the decrease in skill with respect to ENSO prediction after 2000. Coincident with the changes in tropical Pacific climate variability, the mean states of the atmospheric and oceanic components also experienced physically coherent changes. The warm anomaly of SST in the western Pacific and cold anomaly in the eastern Pacific resulted in an increased zonal SST gradient, linked to an enhancement in surface wind stress and strengthening of the Walker circulation, as well as an increase in the slope of the thermocline. These changes were consistent with an increase (a decrease) in precipitation and an enhancement (a suppression) of the deep convection in the western (eastern) equatorial Pacific. Possible connections between the mean state and ENSO variability and frequency changes in the tropical Pacific are also discussed.

  20. Analytical Formulation of Equatorial Standing Wave Phenomena: Application to QBO and ENSO (United States)

    Pukite, P. R.


    Key equatorial climate phenomena such as QBO and ENSO have never been adequately explained as deterministic processes. This in spite of recent research showing growing evidence of predictable behavior. This study applies the fundamental Laplace tidal equations with simplifying assumptions along the equator — i.e. no Coriolis force and a small angle approximation. To connect the analytical Sturm-Liouville results to observations, a first-order forcing consistent with a seasonally aliased Draconic or nodal lunar period (27.21d aliased into 2.36y) is applied. This has a plausible rationale as it ties a latitudinal forcing cycle via a cross-product to the longitudinal terms in the Laplace formulation. The fitted results match the features of QBO both qualitatively and quantitatively; adding second-order terms due to other seasonally aliased lunar periods provides finer detail while remaining consistent with the physical model. Further, running symbolic regression machine learning experiments on the data provided a validation to the approach, as it discovered the same analytical form and fitted values as the first principles Laplace model. These results conflict with Lindzen's QBO model, in that his original formulation fell short of making the lunar connection, even though Lindzen himself asserted "it is unlikely that lunar periods could be produced by anything other than the lunar tidal potential".By applying a similar analytical approach to ENSO, we find that the tidal equations need to be replaced with a Mathieu-equation formulation consistent with describing a sloshing process in the thermocline depth. Adapting the hydrodynamic math of sloshing, we find a biennial modulation coupled with angular momentum forcing variations matching the Chandler wobble gives an impressive match over the measured ENSO range of 1880 until the present. Lunar tidal periods and an additional triaxial nutation of 14 year period provide additional fidelity. The caveat is a phase

  1. Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall associated with ENSO and its Predictability (United States)

    Shin, C. S.; Huang, B.; Zhu, J.; Marx, L.; Kinter, J. L.; Shukla, J.


    The leading modes of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) rainfall variability and their seasonal predictability are investigated using the CFSv2 hindcasts initialized from multiple ocean analyses over the period of 1979-2008 and observation-based analyses. It is shown that the two leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of the observed ASM rainfall anomalies, which together account for about 34% of total variance, largely correspond to the ASM responses to the ENSO influences during the summers of the developing and decaying years of a Pacific anomalous event, respectively. These two ASM modes are then designated as the contemporary and delayed ENSO responses, respectively. It is demonstrated that the CFSv2 is capable of predicting these two dominant ASM modes up to the lead of 5 months. More importantly, the predictability of the ASM rainfall are much higher with respect to the delayed ENSO mode than the contemporary one, with the predicted principal component time series of the former maintaining high correlation skill and small ensemble spread with all lead months whereas the latter shows significant degradation in both measures with lead-time. A composite analysis for the ASM rainfall anomalies of all warm ENSO events in this period substantiates the finding that the ASM is more predictable following an ENSO event. The enhanced predictability mainly comes from the evolution of the warm SST anomalies over the Indian Ocean in the spring of the ENSO maturing phases and the persistence of the anomalous high sea surface pressure over the western Pacific in the subsequent summer, which the hindcasts are able to capture reasonably well. The results also show that the ensemble initialization with multiple ocean analyses improves the CFSv2's prediction skill of both ENSO and ASM rainfall. In fact, the skills of the ensemble mean hindcasts initialized from the four different ocean analyses are always equivalent to the best ones initialized from any individual ocean

  2. ENSO variations and drought occurrence in Indonesia and the Philippines (United States)

    Harger, J. R. E.

    The "El Nino-Southern Oscillation" (ENSO) consists of a sympathetic movement involving the Pacific ocean and associated atmosphere in an essentially chaotic manner along the equator. The system oscillates between extremes of the so-called "warm events" usually lasting 1 or 2 yr and involving movement of warm sea water from the western Pacific along the equator to impact on the west coast of the American continent and "cold events" associated with easterly trade-wind-induced flows of colder water from the eastern Pacific towards the west. Information drawn from meteorological records in southeast Asia clearly indicates that each event is unique in terms of the signature which it imposes on the rainfall and temperature from location to location. Nevertheless, a strong underlying pattern within the context of each event, itself apparently initiated or molded by the character of the preceding years, can be detected. This pattern permits relatively circumscribed predictions of forward conditions (drought intensity) for 2-3 yr, to be made once the event "locks in" for the duration of the warm event and at least 1 yr beyond. The character of the intervening non-ENSO years can also be projected but in a more tenuous, though fairly regular manner. When the non-ENSO years leading up to a warm event are scored in terms of the extent to which they depart from the secular warming trend for the warmest month using data from Jakarta and Semarang on the north coast of Java, the cumulative temperature deviations signal the character of the upcoming ENSO event. This signal does not, however, allow an exact determination to be made with respect to whether or not an ENSO event will occur in the next year. For the available historical instrumental data, all markedly upward-moving traces eventually delivered a hot dry season in east Indonesia. This sort of tendency within non-ENSO blocks can thus serve as a caution in the sense that a very hot ENSO event is likely in the offing. The

  3. Fossil Coral Records of ENSO during the Last Glacial Period (United States)

    Partin, J. W.; Taylor, F. W.; Shen, C. C.; Edwards, R. L.; Quinn, T. M.; DiNezro, P.


    Only a handful of paleoclimate records exist that can resolve interannual changes, and hence El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, during the last glacial period, a time of altered mean climate. The few existing data suggest reduced ENSO variability compared to the Holocene, possibly due to a weaker zonal sea surface temperature gradient across the tropical Pacific and/or a deeper thermocline in the eastern tropical Pacific. Our goal is to add crucial data to this extremely limited subset using sub-annually resolved fossil corals that grew during this time period to reconstruct ENSO. We seek to recover fossil corals from Vanuatu, SW Pacific (16°S, 167°E) with the objective of using coral δ18O to reconstruct changes in the ENSO during and near the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Modern δ18O coral records from Vanuatu show a high degree of skill in capturing ENSO variability, making it a suitable site for reconstructing ENSO variability. We have custom designed and are building a drill system that can rapidly core many 0-25 m holes resulting in much more meters of penetration than achieved by previous land-based reef drilling. As the new drill system is extremely portable and can be quickly relocated by workers without landing craft or vehicles, it is time and cost efficient. Because the proposed drilling sites have uplifted extremely fast, 7 mm/year, the LGM shoreline has been raised from 120-140 m depth to within a depth range of 10 below to 20 m above present sea level. This enables all the drilling to be within the time range of interest ( 15-25 ka). A last advantage is that the LGM corals either are still submersed in seawater or emerged only within the last 2000 years at the uplift rate of 7 mm/yr. This greatly reduces the chances of disruption of the original climate signal because sea water is less diagenetically damaging than meteoric water in the mixed, phreatic, or vadose zones. LGM coral records will enable us to compare the proxy variability

  4. Interhemispheric temperature difference as a predictor of boreal winter ENSO (United States)

    Piskozub, Jacek; Gutowska, Dorota


    We use statistical analysis to show statistically significant relationship between the boreal winter MEI index of ENSO and HadCRUT3 temperature difference between Northern and Southern hemispheres (NH - SH) during the preceding summer. Correlation values increase (in absolute terms) if the correlated time periods are increased from month to seasonal length. For example December and January (DJ) MEI values anticorrelate stronger with the preceding MJJA period than with any of the four months taken separately. We believe this is further evidence that the correlation is caused by a real physical process as increase of the averaging period tends to reduce statistical noise. The motivation for looking for such a relationship comes from review of literature on paleoclimatic ENSO behavior. We have noticed that in many cases relatively cold NH coincided with "strong ENSO" (frequent El Niños), for example the Ice Age periods and Little Ice Age. On the other hand periods of relatively warm NH (the Holocene climate optimum or Medieval Climate Anomaly) are coincident with frequent or even "permanent" La Niñas. This relationship suggest the influence of the position of Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) on the frequency of El Niños. The simplest physical mechanism of the relationship is that the positive (negative) NH-SH temperature difference causes a north (south) shift of ITCZ with a parallel shift of trade wind zones. The North-South orographic difference between the Panama Isthmus and the South America may cause stronger (weaker) trade winds in Eastern Tropical Pacific increasing (decreasing) the thermochemical tilt which, in turn, causes a more negative (positive) ENSO values. Of course this may be only a first approximation of the real mechanism of this "teleconnection". The correlations we have found are not strong even if statistically significant. For example, the MJJA NH-SH temperature vs. DJ MEI correlation has r = -0.28 implying it explains only 8% of boreal

  5. Role of tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans variability on ENSO (United States)

    Prodhomme, Chloé; Terray, Pascal; Masson, Sebastien; Boschat, Ghyslaine


    There are strong evidences of an interaction between tropical Indian, Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Nevertheless, these interactions remain deeply controversial. While some authors claim the tropical Indian and Atlantic oceans only play a passive role with respect to ENSO, others suggest a driving role for these two basins on ENSO. The mecanisms underlying these relations are not fully understood and, in the Indian Ocean, the possible role of both modes of tropical variability (the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the Indian Ocean Basin mode (IOB)) remain unclear. To better quantify and understand how the variability of the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans impact ENSO variability, we performed two sensitivity experiments using the SINTEX-F2 coupled model. For each experiment, we suppressed the variability of SST and the air-sea coupling in either the tropical Indian Ocean or tropical Atlantic Ocean by applying a strong nudging of the SST to the observed SST climatology. In both experiments, the ENSO periodicity increases. In the Atlantic experiment, our understanding of this increased periodicity is drastically limited by the strongly biased mean state in this region. Conversely, in the Indian Ocean experiment, the increase of ENSO periodicity is related to the absence of the IOB following the El Niño peak, which leads to a decrease of westerly winds in the western Pacific during late winter and spring after the peak. These weaker westerlies hinders the transition to a La Niña phase and thus increase the duration and periodicity of the event.

  6. Simulation of Relationship between ENSO and winter precipitation over Western Himalayas: Application of Regional climate model (RegT-Band) (United States)

    Tiwari, P. R.; Mohanty, U. C.; Dey, S.; Acharaya, N.; Sinha, P.


    air circulation for the ENSO regimes has been also studied. For this purpose, a longitudional cross-section of the seasonal sectorial mean of the zonal and meridional winds is analyzed form NNRP2 and RegT-Band model simulations. The model simulated zonal wind is in good agreement with verification analysis however core speed of subtropical Westerly Jet Stream in upper level (around 150 hPa) is overestimated by the model. Further, the sectorial cross section of meridional wind indicates that the wind around 200 hPa is stronger during ENSO years, and this feature is emphasized well in the model simulation. So the upper and lower level sartorial components of wind supports the argument of strengthening of circulation associated with ENSO, and hence enhanced precipitation during ENSO-winter precipitation relationship. So our preliminary study indicates that the tropical band version of the regional climate model can be effectively used for the better understanding of these large scale global forcing's. This can improve the predictability of precipitation over this region and so it might help to come out with better socio-economic tools. Key words: Winter precipitation, El-Nino-southern oscillation, RegCM4, ENSO response and RegT-Band.

  7. Contribution of tropical instability waves to ENSO irregularity (United States)

    Holmes, Ryan M.; McGregor, Shayne; Santoso, Agus; England, Matthew H.


    Tropical instability waves (TIWs) are a major source of internally-generated oceanic variability in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. These non-linear phenomena play an important role in the sea surface temperature (SST) budget in a region critical for low-frequency modes of variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, the direct contribution of TIW-driven stochastic variability to ENSO has received little attention. Here, we investigate the influence of TIWs on ENSO using a 1/4° ocean model coupled to a simple atmosphere. The use of a simple atmosphere removes complex intrinsic atmospheric variability while allowing the dominant mode of air-sea coupling to be represented as a statistical relationship between SST and wind stress anomalies. Using this hybrid coupled model, we perform a suite of coupled ensemble forecast experiments initiated with wind bursts in the western Pacific, where individual ensemble members differ only due to internal oceanic variability. We find that TIWs can induce a spread in the forecast amplitude of the Niño 3 SST anomaly 6-months after a given sequence of WWBs of approximately ± 45% the size of the ensemble mean anomaly. Further, when various estimates of stochastic atmospheric forcing are added, oceanic internal variability is found to contribute between about 20% and 70% of the ensemble forecast spread, with the remainder attributable to the atmospheric variability. While the oceanic contribution to ENSO stochastic forcing requires further quantification beyond the idealized approach used here, our results nevertheless suggest that TIWs may impact ENSO irregularity and predictability. This has implications for ENSO representation in low-resolution coupled models.

  8. Changes in Sea Salt Emissions Enhance ENSO Variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Yang; Russell, Lynn M.; Lou, Sijia; Lamjiri, Maryam A.; Liu, Ying; Singh, Balwinder; Ghan, Steven J.


    Two 150-year pre-industrial simulations with and without interactive sea salt emissions from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) are performed to quantify the interactions between sea salt emissions and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Variations in sea salt emissions over the tropical Pacific Ocean are affected by changing wind speed associated with ENSO variability. ENSO-induced interannual variations in sea salt emissions result in decreasing (increasing) aerosol optical depth (AOD) by 0.03 over the equatorial central-eastern (western) Pacific Ocean during El Niño events compared to those during La Niña events. These changes in AOD further increase (decrease) radiative fluxes into the atmosphere by +0.2 W m-2 (-0.4 W m-2) over the tropical eastern (western) Pacific. Thereby, sea surface temperature increases (decreases) by 0.2–0.4 K over the tropical eastern (western) Pacific Ocean during El Niño compared to La Niña events and enhances ENSO variability by 10%. The increase in ENSO amplitude is a result of systematic heating (cooling) during the warm (cold) phase, of ENSO in the eastern Pacific. Interannual variations in sea salt emissions then produce the anomalous ascent (subsidence) over the equatorial eastern (western) Pacific between El Niño and La Niña events, which is a result of heating anomalies. Due to variations in sea salt emissions, the convective precipitation is enhanced by 0.6–1.2 mm day-1 over the tropical central-eastern Pacific Ocean and weakened by 0.9–1.5 mm day-1 over the Maritime Continent during El Niño compared to La Niña events, enhancing the precipitation variability over the tropical Pacific.

  9. Asymptotic solving method for sea-air coupled oscillator ENSO model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou Xian-Chun; Yao Jing-Sun; Mo Jia-Qi


    The ENSO is an interannual phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere interaction. In this article, we create an asymptotic solving method for the nonlinear system of the ENSO model. The asymptotic solution is obtained. And then we can furnish weather forecasts theoretically and other behaviors and rules for the atmosphere-ocean oscillator of the ENSO. (general)

  10. Dynamics of the Indian monsoon and ENSO relationships in the SINTEX global coupled model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Terray, P. [LODYC, Paris (France); Universite Paris 7, Paris (France); Guilyardi, E. [LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette (France); CGAM, Reading (United Kingdom); Fischer, A.S. [LODYC, Paris (France); Delecluse, P. [LODYC, Paris (France); LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette (France)


    features are mainly due to the unrealistic interannual variability simulated by the model in the western North Pacific. The amplitude and even the sign of the simulated surface and upper level wind anomalies in these areas are not consistent with observed patterns during weak/strong ISM years. The ISM and western North Pacific ITCZ fluctuate independently in the observations, while they are negatively and significantly correlated in the simulation. This isolates the Pacific Walker circulation from the ISM forcing. These systematic errors may also contribute to the reduced amplitude of ENSO variability in the coupled simulation. Most of the unrealistic features in simulating the Indo-Pacific interannual variability may be traced back to systematic errors in the base state of the coupled model. (orig.)

  11. Forest Understory Fire in the Brazilian Amazon in ENSO and Non-ENSO Years: Area Burned and Committed Carbon Emissions (United States)

    Alencar, A.; Nepstad, D.; Ver-Diaz, M. Del. C.


    "Understory fires" that burn the floor of standing forests are one of the most important types of forest impoverishment in the Amazon, especially during the severe droughts of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes. However, we are aware of no estimates of the areal extent of these fires for the Brazilian Amazon and, hence, of their contribution to Amazon carbon fluxes to the atmosphere. We calculated the area of forest understory fires for the Brazilian Amazon region during an El Nino (1998) and a non El Nino (1995) year based on forest fire scars mapped with satellite images for three locations in eastern and southern Amazon, where deforestation is concentrated. The three study sites represented a gradient of both forest types and dry season severity. The burning scar maps were used to determine how the percentage of forest that burned varied with distance from agricultural clearings. These spatial functions were then applied to similar forest/climate combinations outside of the study sites to derive an initial estimate for the Brazilian Amazon. Ninety-one percent of the forest area that burned in the study sites was within the first kilometer of a clearing for the non ENSO year and within the first four kilometers for the ENSO year. The area of forest burned by understory forest fire during the severe drought (ENSO) year (3.9 millions of hectares) was 13 times greater than the area burned during the average rainfall year (0.2 million hectares), and twice the area of annual deforestation rate. Dense forest was, proportionally, the forest area most affected by understory fires during the El Nino year, while understory fires were concentrated in transitional forests during the year of average rainfall. Our estimate of aboveground tree biomass killed by fire ranged from 0.06 Pg to 0.38 Pg during the ENSO and from 0,004 Pg to 0,024 Pg during the non ENSO.

  12. Tracking ENSO with tropical trees: Progress in stable isotope dendroclimatology (United States)

    Evans, M. N.; Poussart, P. F.; Saleska, S. R.; Schrag, D. P.


    The terrestrial tropics remain an important gap in the growing proxy network used to characterize past ENSO behavior. Here we describe a strategy for development of proxy estimates of paleo-ENSO, via proxy rainfall estimates derived from stable isotope (δ18O) measurements made on tropical trees. The approach applies a new model of oxygen isotopic composition of alpha-cellulose (Roden et al., 2000), a rapid method for cellulose extraction from raw wood (Brendel et al., 2000), and continuous flow isotope ratio mass spectrometry (Brand, 1996) to develop proxy chronological, rainfall and growth rate estimates from tropical trees, even those lacking annual rings. The promise and pitfalls of the approach are illustrated in pilot datasets from the US, Costa Rica, Brazil, and Peru, which show isotopic cycles of 4-6 per mil, and interannual anomalies of up to 8 per mil. Together with the mature ENSO proxies (corals, extratropical tree-rings, varved sediments, and ice cores), replicated and well-dated stable isotope chronologies from tropical trees may eventually improve our understanding of ENSO history over the past several hundred years.

  13. Understanding ENSO dynamics through the exploration of past climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phipps, Steven J; Brown, Jaclyn N


    The palaeoclimate record shows that significant changes in ENSO characteristics took place during the Holocene. Exploring these changes, using both data and models, provides a means of understanding ENSO dynamics. Previous modelling studies have suggested a mechanism whereby changes in the Earth's orbital geometry explain the strengthening of ENSO over the Holocene. Decreasing summer insolation over the Asian landmass resulted in a weakening of the Asian monsoon system. This led to a weakening of the easterly trade winds in the western Pacific, creating conditions more favourable for El Nino development. To explore this hypothesised forcing mechanism, we use a climate system model to conduct a suite of simulations of the climate of the past 8,000 years. In the early Holocene, we find that the Asian summer monsoon system is intensified, resulting in an amplification of the easterly trade winds in the western Pacific. The stronger trade winds represent a barrier to the eastward propagation of westerly wind bursts, therefore inhibiting the onset of El Nino events. The fundamental behaviour of ENSO remains unchanged, with the major change over the Holocene being the influence of the background state of the Pacific on the susceptibility of the ocean to the initiation of El Nino events.

  14. The complex influence of ENSO on droughts in Ecuador

    KAUST Repository

    Vicente-Serrano, S. M.; Aguilar, E.; Martí nez, R.; Martí n-Herná ndez, N.; Azorin-Molina, C.; Sanchez-Lorenzo, A.; El Kenawy, Ahmed M.; Tomá s-Burguera, M.; Moran-Tejeda, E.; Ló pez-Moreno, J. I.; Revuelto, J.; Beguerí a, S.; Nieto, J. J.; Drumond, A.; Gimeno, L.; Nieto, R.


    of precipitation and air temperature by means of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. In addition, the propagation of two different ENSO indices (El Niño 3.4 and El Niño 1 + 2 indices) and other atmospheric circulation processes (e.g., vertical

  15. Tree-ring analysis of winter climate variability and ENSO in Mediterranean California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woodhouse, C.A.; Univ. of Colorado, Boulder


    The feasibility of using tree-ring data as a proxy for regional precipitation and ENSO events in the Mediterranean region of California is explored. A transect of moisture-sensitive tree-ring sites, extending from southwestern to north-central California, documents regional patterns of winter precipitation and replicates the regional response to ENSO events in the 20. century. Proxy records of ENSO were used with the tree-ring data to examine precipitation/ENSO patterns in the 18. and 19. centuries. Results suggest some temporal and spatial variability in the regional precipitation response to ENSO over the last three centuries

  16. ENSO impacts on flood risk at the global scale (United States)

    Ward, Philip; Dettinger, Michael; Jongman, Brenden; Kummu, Matti; Winsemius, Hessel


    We present the impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on society and the economy, via relationships between ENSO and the hydrological cycle. We also discuss ways in which this knowledge can be used in disaster risk management and risk reduction. This contribution provides the most recent results of an ongoing 4-year collaborative research initiative to assess and map the impacts of large scale interannual climate variability on flood hazard and risk at the global scale. We have examined anomalies in flood risk between ENSO phases, whereby flood risk is expressed in terms of indicators such as: annual expected damage; annual expected affected population; annual expected affected Gross Domestic Product (GDP). We show that large anomalies in flood risk occur during El Niño or La Niña years in basins covering large parts of the Earth's surface. These anomalies reach statistical significance river basins covering almost two-thirds of the Earth's surface. Particularly strong anomalies exist in southern Africa, parts of western Africa, Australia, parts of Central Eurasia (especially for El Niño), the western USA (especially La Niña anomalies), and parts of South America. We relate these anomalies to possible causal relationships between ENSO and flood hazard, using both modelled and observed data on flood occurrence and extremity. The implications for flood risk management are many-fold. In those regions where disaster risk is strongly influenced by ENSO, the potential predictably of ENSO could be used to develop probabilistic flood risk projections with lead times up to several seasons. Such data could be used by the insurance industry in managing risk portfolios and by multinational companies for assessing the robustness of their supply chains to potential flood-related interruptions. Seasonal forecasts of ENSO influence of peak flows could also allow for improved flood early warning and regulation by dam operators, which could also reduce overall risks

  17. ENSO-Type Signals Recorded in the Late Cretaceous Laminated Sediments of Songliao Basin, Northeast China (United States)

    Yu, E.; Wang, C.; Hinnov, L. A.; Wu, H.


    The quasi-periodic, ca. 2-7 year El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon globally influences the inter-annual variability of temperature and precipitation. Global warming may increase the frequency of extreme ENSO events. Although the Cretaceous plate tectonic configuration was different from today, the sedimentary record suggests that ENSO-type oscillations had existed at the time of Cretaceous greenhouse conditions. Cored Cretaceous lacustrine sediments from the Songliao Basin in Northeast China (SK-1 cores from the International Continental Drilling Program) potentially offer a partially varved record of Cretaceous paleoclimate. Fourteen polished thin sections from the depth interval 1096.12-1096.53 m with an age of 84.4 Ma were analyzed by optical and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). ImageJ software was applied to extract gray scale curves from optical images at pixel resolution. We tracked minimum values of the gray scale curves to estimate the thickness of each lamina. Five sedimentary structures were recognized: flaser bedding, wavy bedding, lenticular bedding, horizontal bedding, and massive layers. The mean layer thicknesses with different sedimentary structures range from 116 to 162mm, very close to the mean sedimentation rate estimated for this sampled interval, 135mm/year, indicating that the layers bounded by pure clay lamina with the minimum gray values are varves. SEM images indicate that a varve is composed, in succession, of one lamina rich in coarse silt, one lamina rich in fine silt, one clay-rich lamina with some silt, and one clay-rich lamina. This suggests that a Cretaceous year featured four distinct depositional seasons, two of which were rainy and the others were lacking precipitation. Spectral analysis of extended intervals of the tuned gray scale curve indicates the presence of inter-annual periodicities of 2.2-2.7 yr, 3.5-6.1 year, and 10.1-14.5 year consistent with those of modern ENSO cycles and solar cycles, as well as

  18. The influence of ENSO on an oceanic eddy pair in the South China Sea (United States)

    Chu, Xiaoqing; Dong, Changming; Qi, Yiquan


    An eddy pair off the Vietnam coast is one of the most important features of the summertime South China Sea circulation. Its variability is of interest due to its profound impact on regional climate, ecosystems, biological processes, and fisheries. This study examines the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a basin-scale climatic mode, on the interannual variability of this regional eddy pair using satellite observational data and historical hydrographic measurements. Over the last three decades, the eddy pair strengthened in 1994 and 2002, and weakened in 2006, 2007, and 2008. It was absent in 1988, 1995, 1998, and 2010, coinciding with strong El Nino-to-La Nina transitions. Composite analyses showed that the strong transition events of ENSO led to radical changes in the summer monsoon, through the forcing of a unique sea surface temperature anomaly structure over the tropical Indo-Pacific basin. With weaker zonal wind, a more northward wind direction, and the disappearance of a pair of positive and negative wind stress curls, the eastward current jet turns northward along the Vietnam coast and the eddy pair disappears.

  19. How well do climate models simulate atmospheric teleconnctions over the North Pacific and East Asia associated with ENSO? (United States)

    Kim, Sunyong; Son, Hye-Young; Kug, Jong-Seong


    During the El Niño and La Niña mature phase, atmospheric teleconnections over the North Pacific and East Asia vary considerably on sub-seasonal time scales, and are strongly phase-locked to the sub-seasonal evolution. In this study, we investigate how well climate models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulate the sub-seasonal evolution of teleconnections over the North Pacific and East Asia associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the observations, there is a prominent anticyclone anomaly over the Kuroshio extension region (i.e. Kuroshio anticyclone), which significantly affects East Asian climate in the early winter (November-December) of El Niño years. However, in January, the Kuroshio anticyclone suddenly disappears, and a cyclonic flow dominates over the North Pacific. It is found here that the CMIP5 models simulate the overall extratropical teleconnection patterns, but they fail to reproduce some of these sub-seasonally-varying features in atmospheric circulation. For example, the models tend to simulate a weaker Kuroshio anticyclone in the early winter during El Niño phases, and fail to capture the abrupt decay of the Kuroshio anticyclone in the late winter. We demonstrate here that these systematic errors in ENSO teleconnection can be explained by systematic errors in tropical precipitation associated with ENSO. That is, negative precipitation anomalies over the western North Pacific (WNP) are too weak in the models compared to that in the observations, and their amplitude tends to be strengthened from December to the following January, while they are weakened in the observations. In addition, analyses on the inter-model diversity strongly support that relative magnitudes of WNP and central Pacific precipitation anomalies are critical for determining sub-seasonal evolution of ENSO teleconnections over the North Pacific and East Asia.

  20. Changes in ENSO amplitude under climate warming and cooling (United States)

    Wang, Yingying; Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai


    The response of ENSO amplitude to climate warming and cooling is investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), in which the warming and cooling scenarios are designed by adding heat fluxes of equal amplitude but opposite sign onto the ocean surface, respectively. Results show that the warming induces an increase of the ENSO amplitude but the cooling gives rise to a decrease of the ENSO amplitude, and these changes are robust in statistics. A mixed layer heat budget analysis finds that the increasing (decreasing) SST tendency under climate warming (cooling) is mainly due to an enhancement (weakening) of dynamical feedback processes over the equatorial Pacific, including zonal advective (ZA) feedback, meridional advective (MA) feedback, thermocline (TH) feedback, and Ekman (EK) feedback. As the climate warms, a wind anomaly of the same magnitude across the equatorial Pacific can induce a stronger zonal current change in the east (i.e., a stronger ZA feedback), which in turn produces a greater weakening of upwelling (i.e., a stronger EK feedback) and thus a larger thermocline change (i.e., a stronger TH feedback). In response to the climate warming, in addition, the MA feedback is also strengthened due to an enhancement of the meridional SST gradient around the equator resulting from a weakening of the subtropical cells (STCs). It should be noted that the weakened STCs itself has a negative contribution to the change of the MA feedback which, however, appears to be secondary. And vice versa for the cooling case. Bjerknes linear stability (BJ) index is also evaluated for the linear stability of ENSO, with remarkably larger (smaller) BJ index found for the warming (cooling) case.

  1. Study of the global and regional climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude using SPEEDY AGCM

    KAUST Repository

    Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar; Kucharski, Fred; Azharuddin, Syed


    ENSO is considered as a strong atmospheric teleconnection that has pronounced global and regional circulation effects. It modifies global monsoon system, especially, Asian and African monsoons. Previous studies suggest that both the frequency and magnitude of ENSO events have increased over the last few decades resulting in a need to study climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude both at global and regional scales. Hence, to better understand the impact of ENSO amplitude over the tropical and extratropical regions focussing on the Asian and African domains, ENSO sensitivity experiments are conducted using ICTPAGCM (‘SPEEDY’). It is anticipated that the tropical Pacific SST forcing will be enough to produce ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns; therefore, the model is forced using NINO3.4 regressed SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific only. SPEEDY reproduces the impact of ENSO over the Pacific, North and South America and African regions very well. However, it underestimates ENSO teleconnection patterns and associated changes over South Asia, particularly in the Indian region, which suggests that the tropical Pacific SST forcing is not sufficient to represent ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns over South Asia. Therefore, SST forcing over the tropical Indian Ocean together with air–sea coupling is also required for better representation of ENSO-induced changes in these regions. Moreover, results obtained by this pacemaker experiment show that ENSO impacts are relatively stronger over the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) compared to extratropics and high latitude regions. The positive phase of ENSO causes weakening in rainfall activity over African tropical rain belt, parts of South and Southeast Asia, whereas, the La Niña phase produces more rain over these regions during the summer season. Model results further reveal that ENSO magnitude has a stronger impact over African Sahel and South Asia, especially over the Indian region because of its significant

  2. Study of the global and regional climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude using SPEEDY AGCM

    KAUST Repository

    Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar


    ENSO is considered as a strong atmospheric teleconnection that has pronounced global and regional circulation effects. It modifies global monsoon system, especially, Asian and African monsoons. Previous studies suggest that both the frequency and magnitude of ENSO events have increased over the last few decades resulting in a need to study climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude both at global and regional scales. Hence, to better understand the impact of ENSO amplitude over the tropical and extratropical regions focussing on the Asian and African domains, ENSO sensitivity experiments are conducted using ICTPAGCM (‘SPEEDY’). It is anticipated that the tropical Pacific SST forcing will be enough to produce ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns; therefore, the model is forced using NINO3.4 regressed SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific only. SPEEDY reproduces the impact of ENSO over the Pacific, North and South America and African regions very well. However, it underestimates ENSO teleconnection patterns and associated changes over South Asia, particularly in the Indian region, which suggests that the tropical Pacific SST forcing is not sufficient to represent ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns over South Asia. Therefore, SST forcing over the tropical Indian Ocean together with air–sea coupling is also required for better representation of ENSO-induced changes in these regions. Moreover, results obtained by this pacemaker experiment show that ENSO impacts are relatively stronger over the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) compared to extratropics and high latitude regions. The positive phase of ENSO causes weakening in rainfall activity over African tropical rain belt, parts of South and Southeast Asia, whereas, the La Niña phase produces more rain over these regions during the summer season. Model results further reveal that ENSO magnitude has a stronger impact over African Sahel and South Asia, especially over the Indian region because of its significant

  3. The ENSO-pandemic influenza connection: coincident or causal? (United States)

    Shaman, J. L.; Lipsitch, M.


    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a coupled ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific, which affects weather conditions, including temperatures, precipitation, winds and storm activity, across the planet. ENSO has two extreme phases marked by either warmer (El Niño) or cooler (La Niña) than average sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific. We find that the 4 most recent human influenza pandemics (1918, 1957, 1968, 2009), all of which were first identified in boreal spring or summer, were preceded by La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific. Changes in ENSO have been shown to alter the migration, stopover time, fitness and interspecies mixing of migratory birds, and consequently likely affect their mixing with domestic animals. We hypothesize that La Niña conditions bring divergent influenza subtypes together in some parts of the world and favor the reassortment of influenza through simultaneous multiple infection of individual hosts and the generation of novel pandemic strains. We propose approaches to test this hypothesis using influenza population genetics, virus prevalence in various host species, and avian migration patterns.

  4. ENSO surface shortwave radiation forcing over the tropical Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. G. Pavlakis


    Full Text Available We have studied the spatial and temporal variation of the downward shortwave radiation (DSR at the surface of the Earth during ENSO events for a 21-year period over the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean (40° S–40° N, 90° E–75° W. The fluxes were computed using a deterministic model for atmospheric radiation transfer, along with satellite data from the ISCCP-D2 database, reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR for the key atmospheric and surface input parameters, and aerosol parameters from GADS (acronyms explained in main text. A clear anti-correlation was found between the downward shortwave radiation anomaly (DSR-A time-series, in the region 7° S–5° N 160° E–160° W located west of the Niño-3.4 region, and the Niño-3.4 index time-series. In this region where the highest in absolute value DSR anomalies are observed, the mean DSR anomaly values range from −45 Wm−2 during El Niño episodes to +40 Wm−2 during La Niña events. Within the Niño-3.4 region no significant DSR anomalies are observed during the cold ENSO phase in contrast to the warm ENSO phase. A high correlation was also found over the western Pacific (10° S–5° N, 120–140° E, where the mean DSR anomaly values range from +20 Wm−2 to −20 Wm−2 during El Niño and La Niña episodes, respectively. There is also convincing evidence that the time series of the mean downward shortwave radiation anomaly in the off-equatorial western Pacific region 7–15° N 150–170° E, precedes the Niño-3.4 index time-series by about 7 months and the pattern of this anomaly is indicative of ENSO operating through the mechanism of the western Pacific oscillator. Thus, the downward shortwave radiation anomaly is a complementary index to the SST anomaly for the study of ENSO events and can be used to assess whether or not El Niño or La Niña conditions prevail.

  5. The complex influence of ENSO on droughts in Ecuador

    KAUST Repository

    Vicente-Serrano, S. M.


    In this study, we analyzed the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the spatio-temporal variability of droughts in Ecuador for a 48-year period (1965–2012). Droughts were quantified from 22 high-quality and homogenized time series of precipitation and air temperature by means of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. In addition, the propagation of two different ENSO indices (El Niño 3.4 and El Niño 1 + 2 indices) and other atmospheric circulation processes (e.g., vertical velocity) on different time-scales of drought severity were investigated. The results showed a very complex influence of ENSO on drought behavior across Ecuador, with two regional patterns in the evolution of droughts: (1) the Andean chain with no changes in drought severity, and (2) the Western plains with less severe and frequent droughts. We also detected that drought variability in the Andes mountains is explained by the El Niño 3.4 index [sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central Pacific], whereas the Western plains are much more driven by El Niño 1 + 2 index (SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific). Moreover, it was also observed that El Niño and La Niña phases enhance droughts in the Andes and Western plains regions, respectively. The results of this work could be crucial for predicting and monitoring drought variability and intensity in Ecuador. © 2016 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

  6. Impacts of a Pinatubo-size volcanic eruption on ENSO

    KAUST Repository

    Predybaylo, Evgeniya


    Observations and model simulations of the climate responses to strong explosive low-latitude volcanic eruptions suggest a significant increase in the likelihood of El Niño during the eruption and posteruption years, though model results have been inconclusive and have varied in magnitude and even sign. In this study, we test how this spread of responses depends on the initial phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the eruption year and on the eruption\\'s seasonal timing. We employ the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory CM2.1 global coupled general circulation model to investigate the impact of the Pinatubo 1991 eruption, assuming that in 1991 ENSO would otherwise be in central or eastern Pacific El Niño, La Niña, or neutral phases. We obtain statistically significant El Niño responses in a year after the eruption for all cases except La Niña, which shows no response in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The eruption has a weaker impact on eastern Pacific El Niños than on central Pacific El Niños. We find that the ocean dynamical thermostat and (to a lesser extent) wind changes due to land-ocean temperature gradients are the main feedbacks affecting El Niño development after the eruption. The El Niño responses to eruptions occurring in summer are more pronounced than for winter and spring eruptions. That the climate response depends on eruption season and initial ENSO phase may help to reconcile apparent inconsistencies among previous studies.

  7. Influences of the ENSO event on the rainfall of dry Sudan

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    One third of the world's population live in places where medium to high water stress is compounded by pollution, climate change, inefficient management approaches and governance issues. This study detects the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and signals, and the influences of the different ENSO stages in the ...

  8. Reduced herbivory during simulated ENSO rainy events increases native herbaceous plants in semiarid Chile

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Manrique, R.; Gutierrez, J.R.; Holmgren, M.; Squeo, F.A.


    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events have profound consequences for the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems. Since increased climate variability is expected to favour the invasive success of exotic species, we conducted a field experiment to study the effects that simulated rainy ENSO events in

  9. Shifting patterns of ENSO variability from a 492-year South Pacific coral core (United States)

    Tangri, N.; Linsley, B. K.; Mucciarone, D.; Dunbar, R. B.


    Anticipating the impacts of ENSO in a changing climate requires detailed reconstructions of changes in its timing, amplitude, and spatial pattern, as well as attempts to attribute those changes to external forcing or internal variability. A continuous coral δ18O record from American Samoa, in the tropical South Pacific, sheds light on almost five centuries of these changes. We find evidence of internally-driven 50-100 year cycles with broad peaks of high variability punctuated by short transitions of low variability. We see a long, slow trend towards more frequent ENSO events, punctuated by sharp decreases in frequency; the 20th century in particular shows a strong trend towards higher-frequency ENSO. Due to the unique location of American Samoa with respect to ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, we infer changes in the spatial pattern of ENSO. American Samoa currently lies on the ENSO 3.4 nodal line - the boomerang shape that separates waters warmed by El Niño from those that cool. Closer examination reveals that SST around American Samoa displays opposing responses to Eastern and Central Pacific ENSO events. However, this has not always been the case; in the late 19th and early 20th century, SST responded similarly to both flavors of ENSO. We interpret this to mean a geographic narrowing towards the equator of the eastern Pacific El Niño SST anomaly pattern in the first half of the 20th century.

  10. A synthesis of ENSO effects on drylands in Australia, North America and South America

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Holmgren, M.; Stapp, P.; Dickman, C.; Gracia, C.; Graham, S.


    Fundamentally, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climatic and oceanographic phenomenon, but it has profound effects on terrestrial ecosystems. Although the ecological effects of ENSO are becoming increasingly known from a wide range of terrestrial ecosystems (Holmgren et al., 2001), their

  11. ENSO related decadal scale climate variability from the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brijker, J.M.; Jung, S.J.A.; Ganssen, G.M.; Bickert, T.; Kroon, D.


    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climatic phenomenon that affects socio-economical welfare in vast areas in the world. A continuous record of Holocene ENSO related climate variability of the Indo-Pacific Warm pool (IPWP) is constructed on the basis of stable oxygen isotopes in shells of

  12. Imavere Sawmill is Stora Ensos Jewel in the Region / Seppo Vainio ; interv. Toivo Tänavsuu

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Vainio, Seppo


    Skandinaavia metsanduskontserni Stora Enso Timberi tegevuse juht Baltikumis vastab küsimustele, mis puudutavad Eesti suurima metsatööstuse Sylvesteri ostu 2003. aastal, Baltikumi üksuste osa Stora Enso tegevuses, Imavere saeveski valimist aasta välisinvestoriks. Vt. samas: Imavere saeveski eile ja täna. Tabel: "Välisinvestor 2004" nominendid

  13. ENSO Related Interannual Lightning Variability from the Full TRMM LIS Lightning Climatology (United States)

    Clark, Austin; Cecil, Daniel J.


    It has been shown that the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) contributes to inter-annual variability of lightning production in the tropics and subtropics more than any other atmospheric oscillation. This study further investigated how ENSO phase affects lightning production in the tropics and subtropics. Using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) for ENSO phase, lightning data were averaged into corresponding mean annual warm, cold, and neutral 'years' for analysis of the different phases. An examination of the regional sensitivities and preliminary analysis of three locations was conducted using model reanalysis data to determine the leading convective mechanisms in these areas and how they might respond to the ENSO phases. These processes were then studied for inter-annual variance and subsequent correlation to ENSO during the study period to best describe the observed lightning deviations from year to year at each location.

  14. Reduced ENSO Variability at the LGM Revealed by an Isotope-Enabled Earth System Model (United States)

    Zhu, Jiang; Liu, Zhengyu; Brady, Esther; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Zhang, Jiaxu; Noone, David; Tomas, Robert; Nusbaumer, Jesse; Wong, Tony; Jahn, Alexandra; hide


    Studying the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the past can help us better understand its dynamics and improve its future projections. However, both paleoclimate reconstructions and model simulations of ENSO strength at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 ka B.P.) have led to contradicting results. Here we perform model simulations using the recently developed water isotope-enabled Community Earth System Model (iCESM). For the first time, model-simulated oxygen isotopes are directly compared with those from ENSO reconstructions using the individual foraminifera analysis (IFA). We find that the LGM ENSO is most likely weaker comparing with the preindustrial. The iCESM suggests that total variance of the IFA records may only reflect changes in the annual cycle instead of ENSO variability as previously assumed. Furthermore, the interpretation of subsurface IFA records can be substantially complicated by the habitat depth of thermocline-dwelling foraminifera and their vertical migration with a temporally varying thermocline.

  15. Indian Ocean and Indian summer monsoon: relationships without ENSO in ocean-atmosphere coupled simulations (United States)

    Crétat, Julien; Terray, Pascal; Masson, Sébastien; Sooraj, K. P.; Roxy, Mathew Koll


    The relationship between the Indian Ocean and the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and their respective influence over the Indo-Western North Pacific (WNP) region are examined in the absence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in two partially decoupled global experiments. ENSO is removed by nudging the tropical Pacific simulated sea surface temperature (SST) toward SST climatology from either observations or a fully coupled control run. The control reasonably captures the observed relationships between ENSO, ISM and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Despite weaker amplitude, IODs do exist in the absence of ENSO and are triggered by a boreal spring ocean-atmosphere coupled mode over the South-East Indian Ocean similar to that found in the presence of ENSO. These pure IODs significantly affect the tropical Indian Ocean throughout boreal summer, inducing a significant modulation of both the local Walker and Hadley cells. This meridional circulation is masked in the presence of ENSO. However, these pure IODs do not significantly influence the Indian subcontinent rainfall despite overestimated SST variability in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean compared to observations. On the other hand, they promote a late summer cross-equatorial quadrupole rainfall pattern linking the tropical Indian Ocean with the WNP, inducing important zonal shifts of the Walker circulation despite the absence of ENSO. Surprisingly, the interannual ISM rainfall variability is barely modified and the Indian Ocean does not force the monsoon circulation when ENSO is removed. On the contrary, the monsoon circulation significantly forces the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal SSTs, while its connection with the western tropical Indian Ocean is clearly driven by ENSO in our numerical framework. Convection and diabatic heating associated with above-normal ISM induce a strong response over the WNP, even in the absence of ENSO, favoring moisture convergence over India.

  16. Climate, ENSO and 'Black Swans' over the Last Millennium (United States)

    Thompson, L. G.; Mosley-Thompson, E.; Davis, M. E.; Kenny, D. V.; Lin, P. N.


    Tropical rainfall patterns influence the lives of billions of people both north and south of the Equator. Evidence of major ENSO events such as droughts is often recorded in the oxygen isotopic ratios and aerosol concentrations in tropical ice cores. Here we examine unusual events recorded in three ice cores, two (Quelccaya and Coropuna) in the Southern Hemisphere on the Peruvian Altiplano and the third (Dasuopu) located 22,000 km away on the southern edge of the Tibetan Plateau at the top of the Himalayas. These records suggest that the unique lower and middle tropospheric air flow over chloride (Cl-) and fluoride (F-) enriched areas upwind of the sites during ENSO events leads to enhanced deposition of these species on these glaciers. Linkages are demonstrated between ice-core chemistry and drought indicators, changes in lake levels, and ENSO and monsoon indices. Two unusual events, in the late 18th and mid-14th Centuries, are marked by abnormally high concentrations of F- and Cl- in at least two of the ice core records. All three records document a drought from 1789 to 1800 CE in which increases in these anionic concentrations reflect the abundance of continental atmospheric dust derived from arid regions upwind of the core sites. The earlier event, apparent only in the Quelccaya and Dasuopu ice cores, begins abruptly in 1343 and tapers off by 1375. The interaction between high frequency El Niños and low frequency shifts in the inter-tropical convergence zone may have resulted in these unusually severe and extended droughts. These "Black Swan" events correspond to historically documented, devastating population disruptions that were in part climate related. The 1789 to 1800 CE event was concurrent with the Doji Bara famine resulting from extended droughts that led to over 600,000 deaths in central India by 1792. Similarly extensive climate disruptions are documented in Central and South America. The mid-14th Century drought is concomitant with major monsoon

  17. The Role of Reversed Equatorial Zonal Transport in Terminating an ENSO Event (United States)

    Chen, H. C.; Hu, Z. Z.; Huang, B.; Sui, C. H.


    In this study, we demonstrate that a sudden reversal of anomalous equatorial zonal current at the peaking ENSO phase triggers the rapid termination of an ENSO event. Throughout an ENSO cycle, the anomalous equatorial zonal current is strongly controlled by the concavity of the anomalous thermocline meridional structure near the equator. During the ENSO developing phase, the anomalous zonal current in the central and eastern Pacific generally enhances the ENSO growth through its zonal SST advection. In the mature phase of ENSO, however, the equatorial thermocline depth anomalies are reflected in the eastern Pacific and slowly propagate westward off the equator in both hemispheres. As a result, the concavity of the thermocline anomalies near the equator is reversed, i.e., the off-equatorial thermocline depth anomalies become higher than that on the equator for El Niño events and lower for La Niño events. This meridional change of thermocline structure reverses zonal transport rapidly in the central-to-eastern equatorial Pacific, which weakens the ENSO SST anomalies by reversed advection. More importantly, the reversed zonal mass transport weakens the existing zonal tilting of equatorial thermocline and suppresses the thermocline feedback. Both processes are concentrated in the eastern equatorial Pacific and can be effective on subseasonal time scales. These current reversal effects are built-in to the ENSO peak phase and independent of the zonal wind effect on thermocline slope. It functions as an oceanic control on ENSO evolution during both El Niño and La Niña events.

  18. Initialization and Predictability of a Coupled ENSO Forecast Model (United States)

    Chen, Dake; Zebiak, Stephen E.; Cane, Mark A.; Busalacchi, Antonio J.


    The skill of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model in predicting ENSO has recently been improved using a new initialization procedure in which initial conditions are obtained from the coupled model, nudged toward observations of wind stress. The previous procedure involved direct insertion of wind stress observations, ignoring model feedback from ocean to atmosphere. The success of the new scheme is attributed to its explicit consideration of ocean-atmosphere coupling and the associated reduction of "initialization shock" and random noise. The so-called spring predictability barrier is eliminated, suggesting that such a barrier is not intrinsic to the real climate system. Initial attempts to generalize the nudging procedure to include SST were not successful; possible explanations are offered. In all experiments forecast skill is found to be much higher for the 1980s than for the 1970s and 1990s, suggesting decadal variations in predictability.

  19. ENSO Related Inter-Annual Lightning Variability from the Full TRMM LIS Lightning Climatology (United States)

    Clark, Austin; Cecil, Daniel


    The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) contributes to inter-annual variability of lightning production more than any other atmospheric oscillation. This study further investigated how ENSO phase affects lightning production in the tropics and subtropics using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS). Lightning data were averaged into mean annual warm, cold, and neutral 'years' for analysis of the different phases and compared to model reanalysis data. An examination of the regional sensitivities and preliminary analysis of three locations was conducted using model reanalysis data to determine the leading convective mechanisms in these areas and how they might respond to the ENSO phases

  20. ENSO-based probabilistic forecasts of March-May U.S. tornado and hail activity (United States)

    Lepore, Chiara; Tippett, Michael K.; Allen, John T.


    Extended logistic regression is used to predict March-May severe convective storm (SCS) activity based on the preceding December-February (DJF) El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state. The spatially resolved probabilistic forecasts are verified against U.S. tornado counts, hail events, and two environmental indices for severe convection. The cross-validated skill is positive for roughly a quarter of the U.S. Overall, indices are predicted with more skill than are storm reports, and hail events are predicted with more skill than tornado counts. Skill is higher in the cool phase of ENSO (La Niña like) when overall SCS activity is higher. SCS forecasts based on the predicted DJF ENSO state from coupled dynamical models initialized in October of the previous year extend the lead time with only a modest reduction in skill compared to forecasts based on the observed DJF ENSO state.

  1. Do regions outside the tropical Pacific influence ENSO through atmospheric teleconnections?

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Dayan, H.; Izumo, T.; Vialard, J.; Lengaigne, M.; Masson, S

    This paper aims at identifying oceanic regions outside the tropical Pacific, which may influence the El Ni�o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) through interannual modulation of equatorial Pacific winds An Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) 7...

  2. Ocean Chlorophyll as a Precursor of ENSO: An Earth System Modeling Study (United States)

    Park, Jong-Yeon; Dunne, John P.; Stock, Charles A.


    Ocean chlorophyll concentration, a proxy for phytoplankton, is strongly influenced by internal ocean dynamics such as those associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Observations show that ocean chlorophyll responses to ENSO generally lead sea surface temperature (SST) responses in the equatorial Pacific. A long-term global Earth system model simulation incorporating marine biogeochemical processes also exhibits a preceding chlorophyll response. In contrast to simulated SST anomalies, which significantly lag the wind-driven subsurface heat response to ENSO, chlorophyll anomalies respond rapidly. Iron was found to be the key factor connecting the simulated surface chlorophyll anomalies to the subsurface ocean response. Westerly wind bursts decrease central Pacific chlorophyll by reducing iron supply through wind-driven thermocline deepening but increase western Pacific chlorophyll by enhancing the influx of coastal iron from the maritime continent. Our results mechanistically support the potential for chlorophyll-based indices to inform seasonal ENSO forecasts beyond previously identified SST-based indices.

  3. NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostics Discussion (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The ENSO Diagnostics Discussion (EDD) is issued by NOAA Climate Prediction Center each month on the Thursday between the 5th and 11th with few exceptions (major...

  4. Trans-Pacific ENSO teleconnections pose a correlated risk to global agriculture (United States)

    Anderson, W. B.; Seager, R.; Cane, M. A.; Baethgen, W.


    The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source of interannual climate variability, particularly in the Pacific Basin. ENSO life-cycles tend to evolve over multiple years, as do the associated trans-Pacific ENSO teleconnections. This analysis, however, represents the first attempt to characterize the structure of the risk posed by ENSO to wheat, maize and soybean production across the Pacific Basin. Our results indicate that most ENSO teleconnections relevant for crop flowering seasons are the result of a single trans-Pacific circulation anomaly that develops in boreal summer and persists through the spring. During the late summer and early fall of a developing ENSO event, the tropical Pacific forces an atmospheric anomaly in the midlatitudes that spans the Pacific Basin. This teleconnection directly links the soybean and maize growing seasons of the US, Mexico and China. It also connects the wheat growing seasons of Argentina, southern Brazil and Australia. The ENSO event peaks in boreal winter, when the atmospheric circulation anomalies intensify and affect maize and soybeans in southeast South America. As the event decays, the ENSO-induced circulation anomalies persist through the wheat flowering seasons in China and the US. While the prospect of ENSO forcing simultaneous droughts in major food producing regions seems disastrous, there may be a silver lining from the perspective of global food security: trans-Pacific ENSO teleconnections to yields are often offsetting between major producing regions in the eastern and western portions of the Pacific Basin. El Niños tend to create good maize and soybean growing conditions in the US and southeast South America, but poor growing conditions in China, Mexico and northeast Brazil. The opposite is true during La Niña. Wheat growing conditions in southeast South America generally have the opposite sign of those in Australia. Finally, we investigate how trade networks interact with this structure of ENSO

  5. The nonstationary impact of local temperature changes and ENSO on extreme precipitation at the global scale (United States)

    Sun, Qiaohong; Miao, Chiyuan; Qiao, Yuanyuan; Duan, Qingyun


    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and local temperature are important drivers of extreme precipitation. Understanding the impact of ENSO and temperature on the risk of extreme precipitation over global land will provide a foundation for risk assessment and climate-adaptive design of infrastructure in a changing climate. In this study, nonstationary generalized extreme value distributions were used to model extreme precipitation over global land for the period 1979-2015, with ENSO indicator and temperature as covariates. Risk factors were estimated to quantify the contrast between the influence of different ENSO phases and temperature. The results show that extreme precipitation is dominated by ENSO over 22% of global land and by temperature over 26% of global land. With a warming climate, the risk of high-intensity daily extreme precipitation increases at high latitudes but decreases in tropical regions. For ENSO, large parts of North America, southern South America, and southeastern and northeastern China are shown to suffer greater risk in El Niño years, with more than double the chance of intense extreme precipitation in El Niño years compared with La Niña years. Moreover, regions with more intense precipitation are more sensitive to ENSO. Global climate models were used to investigate the changing relationship between extreme precipitation and the covariates. The risk of extreme, high-intensity precipitation increases across high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere but decreases in middle and lower latitudes under a warming climate scenario, and will likely trigger increases in severe flooding and droughts across the globe. However, there is some uncertainties associated with the influence of ENSO on predictions of future extreme precipitation, with the spatial extent and risk varying among the different models.

  6. On the role of ozone feedback in the ENSO amplitude response under global warming (United States)

    Nowack, P. J.; Braesicke, P.; Abraham, N. L.; Pyle, J. A.


    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific is of key importance to global climate and weather. However, climate models still disagree on the ENSO's response under climate change. Here we show that typical model representations of ozone can have a first-order impact on ENSO amplitude projections in climate sensitivity simulations (i.e. standard abrupt 4xCO2). We mainly explain this effect by the lapse rate adjustment of the tropical troposphere to ozone changes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) under 4xCO2. The ozone-induced lapse rate changes modify the Walker circulation response to the CO2 forcing and consequently tropical Pacific surface temperature gradients. Therefore, not including ozone feedbacks increases the number of extreme ENSO events in our model. In addition, we demonstrate that even if ozone changes in the tropical UTLS are included in the simulations, the neglect of the ozone response in the middle-upper stratosphere still leads to significantly larger ENSO amplitudes (compared to simulations run with a fully interactive atmospheric chemistry scheme). Climate modeling studies of the ENSO often neglect changes in ozone. Our results imply that this could affect the inter-model spread found in ENSO projections and, more generally, surface climate change simulations. We discuss the additional complexity in quantifying such ozone-related effects that arises from the apparent model dependency of chemistry-climate feedbacks and, possibly, their range of surface climate impacts. In conclusion, we highlight the need to understand better the coupling between ozone, the tropospheric circulation, and climate variability. Reference: Nowack PJ, Braesicke P, Abraham NL, and Pyle JA (2017), On the role of ozone feedback in the ENSO amplitude response under global warming, Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 3858-3866, doi:10.1002/2016GL072418.

  7. A possible explanation for the divergent projection of ENSO amplitude change under global warming (United States)

    Chen, Lin; Li, Tim; Yu, Yongqiang; Behera, Swadhin K.


    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the greatest climate variability on interannual time scale, yet what controls ENSO amplitude changes under global warming (GW) is uncertain. Here we show that the fundamental factor that controls the divergent projections of ENSO amplitude change within 20 coupled general circulation models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 is the change of climatologic mean Pacific subtropical cell (STC), whose strength determines the meridional structure of ENSO perturbations and thus the anomalous thermocline response to the wind forcing. The change of the thermocline response is a key factor regulating the strength of Bjerknes thermocline and zonal advective feedbacks, which ultimately lead to the divergent changes in ENSO amplitude. Furthermore, by forcing an ocean general circulation mode with the change of zonal mean zonal wind stress estimated by a simple theoretical model, a weakening of the STC in future is obtained. Such a change implies that ENSO variability might strengthen under GW, which could have a profound socio-economic consequence.

  8. Do ENSO and Coastal Development Enhance Coastal Burial of Terrestrial Carbon? (United States)

    Macreadie, Peter I; Rolph, Timothy C; Boyd, Ron; Schröder-Adams, Claudia J; Skilbeck, Charles G


    Carbon cycling on the east coast of Australia has the potential to be strongly affected by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) intensification and coastal development (industrialization and urbanization). We performed paleoreconstructions of estuarine sediments from a seagrass-dominated estuary on the east coast of Australia (Tuggerah Lake, New South Wales) to test the hypothesis that millennial-scale ENSO intensification and European settlement in Australia have increased the transfer of organic carbon from land into coastal waters. Our data show that carbon accumulation rates within coastal sediments increased significantly during periods of maximum millennial-scale ENSO intensity ("super-ENSO") and coastal development. We suggest that ENSO and coastal development destabilize and liberate terrestrial soil carbon, which, during rainfall events (e.g., La Niña), washes into estuaries and becomes trapped and buried by coastal vegetation (seagrass in this case). Indeed, periods of high carbon burial were generally characterized as having rapid sedimentation rates, higher content of fine-grained sediments, and increased content of wood and charcoal fragments. These results, though preliminary, suggest that coastal development and ENSO intensification--both of which are predicted to increase over the coming century--can enhance capture and burial of terrestrial carbon by coastal ecosystems. These findings have important relevance for current efforts to build an understanding of terrestrial-marine carbon connectivity into global carbon budgets.

  9. Response of ENSO amplitude to global warming in CESM large ensemble: uncertainty due to internal variability (United States)

    Zheng, Xiao-Tong; Hui, Chang; Yeh, Sang-Wook


    El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of variability in the coupled ocean-atmospheric system. Future projections of ENSO change under global warming are highly uncertain among models. In this study, the effect of internal variability on ENSO amplitude change in future climate projections is investigated based on a 40-member ensemble from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) project. A large uncertainty is identified among ensemble members due to internal variability. The inter-member diversity is associated with a zonal dipole pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) change in the mean along the equator, which is similar to the second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) in the unforced control simulation. The uncertainty in CESM-LE is comparable in magnitude to that among models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), suggesting the contribution of internal variability to the intermodel uncertainty in ENSO amplitude change. However, the causations between changes in ENSO amplitude and the mean state are distinct between CESM-LE and CMIP5 ensemble. The CESM-LE results indicate that a large ensemble of 15 members is needed to separate the relative contributions to ENSO amplitude change over the twenty-first century between forced response and internal variability.

  10. ENSO activity during the last climate cycle using Individual Foraminifera Analysis (United States)

    Leduc, G.; Vidal, L.; Thirumalai, K.


    The El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the principal mode of interannual climate variability and affects key climate parameters such as low-latitude rainfall variability. Recent climate modeling experiments tend to suggest an increase in the frequency of both El Niño and La Niña events in the future, but these results remain model-dependent and require to be validated by paleodata-model comparisons. Fossil corals indicate that the ENSO variance during the 20th century is particularly high as compared to other time periods of the Holocene. Beyond the Holocene, however, little is known on past ENSO changes, which makes difficult to test paleoclimate model simulations that are used to study the ENSO sensitivity to various types of forcings. We have expanded an Individual Foraminifera Analysis (IFA) dataset using the thermocline-dwelling N. dutertrei on a marine core collected in the Panama Basin (Leduc et al., 2009), that has proven to be a skillful way to reconstruct the ENSO (Thirumalai et al., 2013). Our new IFA dataset comprehensively covers the Holocene, allowing to verify how the IFA method compares with ENSO reconstructions using corals. The dataset then extends back in time to Marine Isotope Stage 6 (MIS), with a special focus the last deglaciation and Termination II (MIS5/6) time windows, as well as key time periods to tests the sensitivity of ENSO to ice volume and orbital parameters. The new dataset confirms variable ENSO activity during the Holocene and weaker activity during LGM than during the Holocene, as a recent isotope-enabled climate model simulations of the LGM suggests (Zhu et al., 2017). Such pattern is reproduced for the Termination II. Leduc, G., L. Vidal, O. Cartapanis, and E. Bard (2009), Modes of eastern equatorial Pacific thermocline variability: Implications for ENSO dynamics over the last glacial period, Paleoceanography, 24, PA3202, doi:10.1029/2008PA001701. Thirumalai, K., J. W. Partin, C. S. Jackson, and T. M. Quinn (2013

  11. ENSO's non-stationary and non-Gaussian character: the role of climate shifts (United States)

    Boucharel, J.; Dewitte, B.; Garel, B.; Du Penhoat, Y.


    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of climate variability in the Pacific, having socio-economic impacts on surrounding regions. ENSO exhibits significant modulation on decadal to inter-decadal time scales which is related to changes in its characteristics (onset, amplitude, frequency, propagation, and predictability). Some of these characteristics tend to be overlooked in ENSO studies, such as its asymmetry (the number and amplitude of warm and cold events are not equal) and the deviation of its statistics from those of the Gaussian distribution. These properties could be related to the ability of the current generation of coupled models to predict ENSO and its modulation. Here, ENSO's non-Gaussian nature and asymmetry are diagnosed from in situ data and a variety of models (from intermediate complexity models to full-physics coupled general circulation models (CGCMs)) using robust statistical tools initially designed for financial mathematics studies. In particular α-stable laws are used as theoretical background material to measure (and quantify) the non-Gaussian character of ENSO time series and to estimate the skill of ``naïve'' statistical models in producing deviation from Gaussian laws and asymmetry. The former are based on non-stationary processes dominated by abrupt changes in mean state and empirical variance. It is shown that the α-stable character of ENSO may result from the presence of climate shifts in the time series. Also, cool (warm) periods are associated with ENSO statistics having a stronger (weaker) tendency towards Gaussianity and lower (greater) asymmetry. This supports the hypothesis of ENSO being rectified by changes in mean state through nonlinear processes. The relationship between changes in mean state and nonlinearity (skewness) is further investigated both in the Zebiak and Cane (1987)'s model and the models of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC). Whereas there is a clear relationship in all

  12. Potential role of resurfacing Subtropical Underwater in ENSO evolution (United States)

    Qu, T.; Chi, J.


    Results from a model of the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) have shown that the resurfacing of high salinity Subtropical Underwater contributes to the sea surface salinity variability in the equatorial Pacific. On interannual time scale, this contribution can account for as much as 25% of the surface freshwater flux anomalies and is believed to play a role in ENSO evolution. Having these results in mind, this study investigates the surface salinity budget and its primary controls in the equatorial Pacific using ECCO output for the period 1993-2016. Particular attention is paid to 2014/2015 and 2015/2016. Preliminary analyses of the model results suggest that enhanced subsurface processes and in particular enhanced entrainment of Subtropical Underwater are primarily responsible for the positive sea surface salinity anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific during 2014/2015, which represents an opposite phase of El Niño. These subsurface processes weakened during 2015/2016, diretly contributing to the development of the 2015/2016 El Niño. The mechanisms controlling these subsurface processes are discussed.

  13. La pluviométrie au Pérou pendant les phases ENSO et LNSO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)


    Full Text Available Les données mensuelles (1960-1990 de précipitations de 21 stations situées dans les trois domaines physiques du Pérou (côte, Andes et plaine amazonienne sont analysées lors des phases ENSO et LNSO de l’Oscillation Australe du Pacifique. Ce n’est qu’à Piura, dans la région côtière du Nord, que les excédents sont significatifs en phase ENSO (test de Kolmogorov-Smirnov mais les volumes précipités sont très différents d’un événement à l’autre. Ailleurs, n’apparaît pas de différence significative entre les pluies des phases ENSO (ou LNSO et celles des périodes normales. Toutefois, la pluviométrie est souvent déficitaire dans les Andes en phase ENSO en période LNSO, elle est également déficitaire au Sud des Andes, mais plus souvent excédentaire au Nord. Dans la plaine amazonienne, la variabilité spatio-temporelle est trop importante lors des deux phases pour que soit esquissé un comportement général. LA PLUVIOMETRÍA EN EL PERÚ DURANTE LAS FASES ENSO Y LNSO. Los datos mensuales (1960-1990 de precipitación de 21 estaciones ubicadas en la Costa, la Sierra y la Selva de Perú son estudiados durante las fases ENSO y LNSO de la Oscilación del Sur del Pacífico. Las lluvias de Piura, en el norte de la Costa, son las únicas que presentan excesos significativos (test de Kolmogorov-Smirnov durante la fase ENSO pero los volúmenes cambian mucho de un evento a otro. No hay, en otros lugares, diferencia significativa entre las lluvias de las fases ENSO (o LNSO y las lluvias de años normales. Pero, muchas veces, la pluviosidad es deficitaria en los Andes durante los ENSO durante los eventos LNSO, las lluvias son también deficitarias en los Andes del Sur, pero más veces hay excesos en el Norte. En la Selva Amazónica, la variabilidad espacio-temporal es demasiado grande para dibujar un comportamiento general. RAINFALL IN PERU DURING THE ENSO AND LNSO PHASES. Monthly rainfall data (1960-1990 taken from 21 stations in three

  14. Improved predictability of droughts over southern Africa using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index and ENSO (United States)

    Manatsa, Desmond; Mushore, Terrence; Lenouo, Andre


    The provision of timely and reliable climate information on which to base management decisions remains a critical component in drought planning for southern Africa. In this observational study, we have not only proposed a forecasting scheme which caters for timeliness and reliability but improved relevance of the climate information by using a novel drought index called the standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), instead of the traditional precipitation only based index, the standardised precipitation index (SPI). The SPEI which includes temperature and other climatic factors in its construction has a more robust connection to ENSO than the SPI. Consequently, the developed ENSO-SPEI prediction scheme can provide quantitative information about the spatial extent and severity of predicted drought conditions in a way that reflects more closely the level of risk in the global warming context of the sub region. However, it is established that the ENSO significant regional impact is restricted only to the period December-March, implying a revisit to the traditional ENSO-based forecast scheme which essentially divides the rainfall season into the two periods, October to December and January to March. Although the prediction of ENSO events has increased with the refinement of numerical models, this work has demonstrated that the prediction of drought impacts related to ENSO is also a reality based only on observations. A large temporal lag is observed between the development of ENSO phenomena (typically in May of the previous year) and the identification of regional SPEI defined drought conditions. It has been shown that using the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum's (SARCOF) traditional 3-month averaged Nino 3.4 SST index (June to August) as a predictor does not have an added advantage over using only the May SST index values. In this regard, the extended lead time and improved skill demonstrated in this study could immensely benefit

  15. Summer monsoon circulation and precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean during ENSO in the NCEP climate forecast system (United States)

    Chowdary, J. S.; Chaudhari, H. S.; Gnanaseelan, C.; Parekh, Anant; Suryachandra Rao, A.; Sreenivas, P.; Pokhrel, S.; Singh, P.


    This study investigates the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections to tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and their relationship with the Indian summer monsoon in the coupled general circulation model climate forecast system (CFS). The model shows good skill in simulating the impact of El Niño over the Indian Oceanic rim during its decay phase (the summer following peak phase of El Niño). Summer surface circulation patterns during the developing phase of El Niño are more influenced by local Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies in the model unlike in observations. Eastern TIO cooling similar to that of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a dominant model feature in summer. This anomalous SST pattern therefore is attributed to the tendency of the model to simulate more frequent IOD events. On the other hand, in the model baroclinic response to the diabatic heating anomalies induced by the El Niño related warm SSTs is weak, resulting in reduced zonal extension of the Rossby wave response. This is mostly due to weak eastern Pacific summer time SST anomalies in the model during the developing phase of El Niño as compared to observations. Both eastern TIO cooling and weak SST warming in El Niño region combined together undermine the ENSO teleconnections to the TIO and south Asia regions. The model is able to capture the spatial patterns of SST, circulation and precipitation well during the decay phase of El Niño over the Indo-western Pacific including the typical spring asymmetric mode and summer basin-wide warming in TIO. The model simulated El Niño decay one or two seasons later, resulting long persistent warm SST and circulation anomalies mainly over the southwest TIO. In response to the late decay of El Niño, Ekman pumping shows two maxima over the southern TIO. In conjunction with this unrealistic Ekman pumping, westward propagating Rossby waves display two peaks, which play key role in the long-persistence of the TIO warming in the model (for more than a

  16. Tropical cyclone prediction skills - MJO and ENSO dependence in S2S data sets (United States)

    Lee, C. Y.; Camargo, S.; Vitart, F.; Sobel, A. H.; Tippett, M.


    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are two important climate controls on tropical cyclone (TC) activity. The seasonal prediction skill of dynamical models is determined in large part by their accurate representations of the ENSO-TC relationship. Regarding intraseasonal TC variability, observations suggest MJO to be the primary control. Given the ongoing effort to develop dynamical seasonal-to-subseasonal (S2S) TC predictions, it is important to examine whether the global models, running on S2S timescales, are able to reproduce these known ENSO-TC and MJO-TC relationships, and how this ability affects forecasting skill. Results from the S2S project (from F. Vitart) suggest that global models have skill in predicting MJO phase with up to two weeks of lead time (four weeks for ECMWF). Meanwhile, our results show that, qualitatively speaking, the MJO-TC relationship in storm genesis is reasonably captured, with some models (e.g., ECMWF, BoM, NCEP, MetFr) performing better than the others. However, we also find that model skill in predicting basin-wide genesis and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) are mainly due to the models' ability to capture the climatological seasonality. Removing the seasonality significantly reduces the models' skill; even the best model (ECMWF) in the most reliable basin (western north Pacific and Atlantic) has very little skill (close to 0.1 in Brier skill score for genesis and close to 0 in rank probability skill score for ACE). This brings up the question: do any factors contribute to intraseasonal TC prediction skill other than seasonality? Is the low skill, after removing the seasonality, due to poor MJO and ENSO simulations, or to poor representation of other ENSO-TC or MJO-TC relationships, such as ENSO's impact on the storm tracks? We will quantitatively discuss the dependence of the TC prediction skill on ENSO and MJO, focusing on Western North Pacific and Atlantic, where we have sufficient

  17. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO and global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Nyenzi


    Full Text Available It is widely accepted by the international scientific community that human activities have increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG and aerosols since the pre-industrial era. This increase has contributed to most of the warming (0.6±0.2°C observed over the 20th century, land areas warming more than the oceans, with the 1990s very likely to be the warmest decade of the 20th century (IPCC, 2001. How this warming influences the occurrence, severity and frequency of ENSO episodes remains highly uncertain. The IPCC (2001 assessment of the scientific literature found insufficient evidence to suggest any direct attribution between increase in ENSO events that occurred in the last 20 to 30 years of the 20th century and global warming (IPCC, 2001. However, assessments carried out since then (e.g. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4, in preparations suggest El Niño events have become more frequent, persistent and intense during the last 20 to 30 years compared to the previous 100 years. Attribution to global warming, however, remains highly uncertain. Efforts to simulate and model past, present and future behaviour of ENSO under a warming world due to enhanced GHG concentrations produce conflicting results. Since substantial internally-generated variability of ENSO behaviour on multi-decadal to century timescales occurs in long, unforced atmospheric-oceanic general circulation model (AOGCM simulations, the attribution of past and future changes in ENSO amplitude and frequency to external forcing like GHG concentrations cannot be made with certainty. Such attribution would require extensive use of ensemble climate experiments or long experiments with stabilised GHG forcing. Although there are now better ENSO simulations in AOGCM, further model improvements are needed to simulate a more realistic Pacific climatology and seasonal cycle of the key modes influencing the climate of the region, as well as more realistic ENSO variability

  18. Coastal upwelling along the southwest coast of India – ENSO modulation

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    K. Muni Krishna


    Full Text Available An index of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO in the Pacific during pre monsoon season is shown to account for a significant part of the variability of coastal Sea Surface Temperature (SST anomalies measured a few months later within the wind driven southwest coast of India coastal upwelling region 7° N–14° N. This teleconnection is thought to result from an atmospheric bridge between the Pacific and north Indian Oceans, leading to warm (cold ENSO events being associated with relaxation (intensification of the Indian trade winds and of the wind-induced coastal upwelling. This ENSO related modulation of the wind-driven coastal upwelling appears to contribute to the connection observed at the basin-scale between ENSO and SST in the Arabian Sea. The ability to use this teleconnection to give warning of large changes in the southwest coast of India coastal upwelling few months in advance is successfully tested using data from 1998 and 1999 ENSO events.

  19. Source of low frequency modulation of ENSO amplitude in a CGCM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moon, Byung-Kwon [Chonbuk National University, Division of Science Education/Institute of Science Education, Jeonju (Korea); Yeh, Sang-Wook [Korea Ocean Research and Development Institute, Ansan (Korea); Dewitte, Boris [Laboratoire d' Etude en Geophysique et Oceanographie Spatiale, Toulouse (France); Jhun, Jong-Ghap [Seoul National University, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul (Korea); Kang, In-Sik [Seoul National University, Climate Environment System Research Center (CES), Seoul (Korea)


    We study the relationship between changes in equatorial stratification and low frequency El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude modulation in a coupled general circulation model (CGCM) that uses an anomaly coupling strategy to prevent climate drifts in the mean state. The stratification is intensified at upper levels in the western and central equatorial Pacific during periods of high ENSO amplitude. Furthermore, changes in equatorial stratification are connected with subsurface temperature anomalies originating from the central south tropical Pacific. The correlation analysis of ocean temperature anomalies against an index for the ENSO modulation supports the hypothesis of the existence of an oceanic ''tunnel'' that connects the south tropical Pacific to the equatorial wave guide. Further analysis of the wind stress projection coefficient onto the oceanic baroclinic modes suggests that the low frequency modulation of ENSO amplitude is associated with a significant contribution of higher-order modes in the western and central equatorial Pacific. In the light of these results, we suggest that, in the CGCM, change in the baroclinic mode energy distribution associated with low frequency ENSO amplitude modulation have its source in the central south tropical Pacific. (orig.)

  20. Uncertainty in the ocean-atmosphere feedbacks associated with ENSO in the reanalysis products

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumar, Arun; Hu, Zeng-Zhen [NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States)


    The evolution of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability can be characterized by various ocean-atmosphere feedbacks, for example, the influence of ENSO related sea surface temperature (SST) variability on the low-level wind and surface heat fluxes in the equatorial tropical Pacific, which in turn affects the evolution of the SST. An analysis of these feedbacks requires physically consistent observational data sets. Availability of various reanalysis data sets produced during the last 15 years provides such an opportunity. A consolidated estimate of ocean surface fluxes based on multiple reanalyses also helps understand biases in ENSO predictions and simulations from climate models. In this paper, the intensity and the spatial structure of ocean-atmosphere feedback terms (precipitation, surface wind stress, and ocean surface heat flux) associated with ENSO are evaluated for six different reanalysis products. The analysis provides an estimate for the feedback terms that could be used for model validation studies. The analysis includes the robustness of the estimate across different reanalyses. Results show that one of the ''coupled'' reanalysis among the six investigated is closer to the ensemble mean of the results, suggesting that the coupled data assimilation may have the potential to better capture the overall atmosphere-ocean feedback processes associated with ENSO than the uncoupled ones. (orig.)

  1. Global land carbon sink response to temperature and precipitation varies with ENSO phase

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fang, Yuanyuan; Michalak, Anna M.; Schwalm, Christopher R.; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; Berry, Joseph A.; Ciais, Philippe; Piao, Shilong; Poulter, Benjamin; Fisher, Joshua B.; Cook, Robert B.; Hayes, Daniel; Huang, Maoyi; Ito, Akihiko; Jain, Atul; Lei, Huimin; Lu, Chaoqun; Mao, Jiafu; Parazoo, Nicholas C.; Peng, Shushi; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Shi, Xiaoying; Tao, Bo; Tian, Hanqin; Wang, Weile; Wei, Yaxing; Yang, Jia


    Climate variability associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its consequent impacts on land carbon sink interannual variability have been used as a basis for investigating carbon cycle responses to climate variability more broadly, and to inform the sensitivity of the tropical carbon budget to climate change. Past studies have presented opposing views about whether temperature or precipitation is the primary factor driving the response of the land carbon sink to ENSO. Here, we show that the dominant driver varies with ENSO phase. Whereas tropical temperature explains sink dynamics following El Niño conditions (rTG,P=0.59, p<0.01), the post La Niña sink is driven largely by tropical precipitation (rPG,T=-0.46, p=0.04). This finding points to an ENSO-phase-dependent interplay between water availability and temperature in controlling the carbon uptake response to climate variations in tropical ecosystems. We further find that none of a suite of ten contemporary terrestrial biosphere models captures these ENSO-phase-dependent responses, highlighting a key uncertainty in modeling climate impacts on the future of the global land carbon sink.

  2. Indo-Pacific ENSO modes in a double-basin Zebiak-Cane model (United States)

    Wieners, Claudia; de Ruijter, Will; Dijkstra, Henk


    We study Indo-Pacific interactions on ENSO timescales in a double-basin version of the Zebiak-Cane ENSO model, employing both time integrations and bifurcation analysis (continuation methods). The model contains two oceans (the Indian and Pacific Ocean) separated by a meridional wall. Interaction between the basins is possible via the atmosphere overlaying both basins. We focus on the effect of the Indian Ocean (both its mean state and its variability) on ENSO stability. In addition, inspired by analysis of observational data (Wieners et al, Coherent tropical Indo-Pacific interannual climate variability, in review), we investigate the effect of state-dependent atmospheric noise. Preliminary results include the following: 1) The background state of the Indian Ocean stabilises the Pacific ENSO (i.e. the Hopf bifurcation is shifted to higher values of the SST-atmosphere coupling), 2) the West Pacific cooling (warming) co-occurring with El Niño (La Niña) is essential to simulate the phase relations between Pacific and Indian SST anomalies, 3) a non-linear atmosphere is needed to simulate the effect of the Indian Ocean variability onto the Pacific ENSO that is suggested by observations.

  3. Identification of symmetric and asymmetric responses in seasonal streamflow globally to ENSO phase (United States)

    Lee, Donghoon; Ward, Philip J.; Block, Paul


    The phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has large-ranging effects on streamflow and hydrologic conditions globally. While many studies have evaluated this relationship through correlation analysis between annual streamflow and ENSO indices, an assessment of potential asymmetric relationships between ENSO and streamflow is lacking. Here, we evaluate seasonal variations in streamflow by ENSO phase to identify asymmetric (AR) and symmetric (SR) spatial pattern responses globally and further corroborate with local precipitation and hydrological condition. The AR and SR patterns between seasonal precipitation and streamflow are identified at many locations for the first time. Our results identify strong SR patterns in particular regions including northwestern and southern US, northeastern and southeastern South America, northeastern and southern Africa, southwestern Europe, and central-south Russia. The seasonally lagged anomalous streamflow patterns are also identified and attributed to snowmelt, soil moisture, and/or cumulative hydrological processes across river basins. These findings may be useful in water resources management and natural hazards planning by better characterizing the propensity of flood or drought conditions by ENSO phase.

  4. On the role of ozone feedback in the ENSO amplitude response under global warming. (United States)

    Nowack, Peer J; Braesicke, Peter; Luke Abraham, N; Pyle, John A


    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean is of key importance to global climate and weather. However, state-of-the-art climate models still disagree on the ENSO's response under climate change. The potential role of atmospheric ozone changes in this context has not been explored before. Here we show that differences between typical model representations of ozone can have a first-order impact on ENSO amplitude projections in climate sensitivity simulations. The vertical temperature gradient of the tropical middle-to-upper troposphere adjusts to ozone changes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, modifying the Walker circulation and consequently tropical Pacific surface temperature gradients. We show that neglecting ozone changes thus results in a significant increase in the number of extreme ENSO events in our model. Climate modeling studies of the ENSO often neglect changes in ozone. We therefore highlight the need to understand better the coupling between ozone, the tropospheric circulation, and climate variability.

  5. The influence of boreal spring Arctic Oscillation on the subsequent winter ENSO in CMIP5 models (United States)

    Chen, Shangfeng; Chen, Wen; Yu, Bin


    This study examines the influence of boreal spring Arctic Oscillation (AO) on the subsequent winter El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using 15 climate model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Results show that, out of the 15 CMIP5 models, CCSM4 and CNRM-CM5 can well reproduce the significant AO-ENSO connection. These two models capture the observed spring AO related anomalous cyclone (anticyclone) over the subtropical western-central North Pacific, and westerly (easterly) winds over the tropical western-central Pacific. In contrast, the spring AO-related anomalous circulation over the subtropical North Pacific is insignificant in the other 13 models, and the simulations in these models cannot capture the significant influence of the spring AO on ENSO. Further analyses indicate that the performance of the CMIP5 simulations in reproducing the AO-ENSO connection is related to the ability in simulating the spring North Pacific synoptic eddy intensity and the spring AO's Pacific component. Strong synoptic-scale eddy intensity results in a strong synoptic eddy feedback on the mean flow, leading to strong cyclonic circulation anomalies over the subtropical North Pacific, which contributes to a significant AO-ENSO connection. In addition, a strong spring AO's Pacific component and associated easterly wind anomalies to its south may provide more favorable conditions for the development of spring AO-related cyclonic circulation anomalies over the subtropical North Pacific.

  6. A Review of ENSO Influence on the North Atlantic. A Non-Stationary Signal

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    Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca


    Full Text Available The atmospheric seasonal cycle of the North Atlantic region is dominated by meridional movements of the circulation systems: from the tropics, where the West African Monsoon and extreme tropical weather events take place, to the extratropics, where the circulation is dominated by seasonal changes in the jetstream and extratropical cyclones. Climate variability over the North Atlantic is controlled by various mechanisms. Atmospheric internal variability plays a crucial role in the mid-latitudes. However, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO is still the main source of predictability in this region situated far away from the Pacific. Although the ENSO influence over tropical and extra-tropical areas is related to different physical mechanisms, in both regions this teleconnection seems to be non-stationary in time and modulated by multidecadal changes of the mean flow. Nowadays, long observational records (greater than 100 years and modeling projects (e.g., CMIP permit detecting non-stationarities in the influence of ENSO over the Atlantic basin, and further analyzing its potential mechanisms. The present article reviews the ENSO influence over the Atlantic region, paying special attention to the stability of this teleconnection over time and the possible modulators. Evidence is given that the ENSO–Atlantic teleconnection is weak over the North Atlantic. In this regard, the multidecadal ocean variability seems to modulate the presence of teleconnections, which can lead to important impacts of ENSO and to open windows of opportunity for seasonal predictability.

  7. Roles of tropical SST patterns during two types of ENSO in modulating wintertime rainfall over southern China (United States)

    Xu, Kang; Huang, Qing-Lan; Tam, Chi-Yung; Wang, Weiqiang; Chen, Sheng; Zhu, Congwen


    The impacts of the eastern-Pacific (EP) and central-Pacific (CP) El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the southern China wintertime rainfall (SCWR) have been investigated. Results show that wintertime rainfall over most stations in southern China is enhanced (suppressed) during the EP (CP) El Niño, which are attributed to different atmospheric responses in the western North Pacific (WNP) and South China Sea (SCS) during two types of ENSO. When EP El Niño occurs, an anomalous low-level anticyclone is present over WNP/the Philippines region, resulting in stronger-than-normal southwesterlies over SCS. Such a wind branch acts to suppress East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and enhance moisture supply, implying surplus SCWR. During CP El Niño, however, anomalous sinking and low-level anticyclonic flow are found to cover a broad region in SCS. These circulation features are associated with moisture divergence over the northern part of SCS and suppressed SCWR. General circulation model experiments have also been conducted to study influence of various tropical sea surface temperature (SST) patterns on the EAWM atmospheric circulation. For EP El Niño, formation of anomalous low-level WNP anticyclone is jointly attributed to positive/negative SST anomalies (SSTA) over the central-to-eastern/ western equatorial Pacific. However, both positive and negative CP Niño-related-SSTA, located respectively over the central Pacific and WNP/SCS, offset each other and contribute a weak but broad-scale anticyclone centered at SCS. These results suggest that, besides the vital role of SST warming, SST cooling over SCS/WNP during two types of El Niño should be considered carefully for understanding the El Niño-EAWM relationship.

  8. Linear dynamical modes as new variables for data-driven ENSO forecast (United States)

    Gavrilov, Andrey; Seleznev, Aleksei; Mukhin, Dmitry; Loskutov, Evgeny; Feigin, Alexander; Kurths, Juergen


    A new data-driven model for analysis and prediction of spatially distributed time series is proposed. The model is based on a linear dynamical mode (LDM) decomposition of the observed data which is derived from a recently developed nonlinear dimensionality reduction approach. The key point of this approach is its ability to take into account simple dynamical properties of the observed system by means of revealing the system's dominant time scales. The LDMs are used as new variables for empirical construction of a nonlinear stochastic evolution operator. The method is applied to the sea surface temperature anomaly field in the tropical belt where the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main mode of variability. The advantage of LDMs versus traditionally used empirical orthogonal function decomposition is demonstrated for this data. Specifically, it is shown that the new model has a competitive ENSO forecast skill in comparison with the other existing ENSO models.

  9. A synthesis of ENSO effects on drylands in Australia, North America and South America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Holmgren


    Full Text Available Fundamentally, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO is a climatic and oceanographic phenomenon, but it has profound effects on terrestrial ecosystems. Although the ecological effects of ENSO are becoming increasingly known from a wide range of terrestrial ecosystems (Holmgren et al., 2001, their impacts have been more intensively studied in arid and semiarid systems. In this brief communication, we summarize the main conclusions of a recent symposium on the effects of ENSO in these ecosystems, which was convened as part of the First Alexander von Humboldt International Conference on the El Niño Phenomenon and its Global Impact, in Guayaquil, Ecuador, from 16–20 May 2005. Participants in the symposium shared results and perspectives from research conducted in North and South America and Australia, regions where the ecological effects of ENSO have been studied in depth. Although the reports covered a wide array of organisms and ecological systems (Fig. 1, a recurring theme was the strong increase in rainfall associated with ENSO events in dry ecosystems (during the El Niño phase of the oscillation in the Americas and the La Niña phase in Australia. Because inter-annual variability in precipitation is such a strong determinant of productivity in arid and semiarid ecosystems, increased ENSO rainfall is crucial for plant recruitment, productivity and diversity in these ecosystems. Several long-term studies show that this pulse in primary productivity causes a subsequent increase in herbivores, followed by an increase in carnivores, with consequences for changes in ecosystem structure and functioning that can be quite complex.

  10. An Ensemble Approach to Understanding the ENSO Response to Climate Change (United States)

    Stevenson, S.; Capotondi, A.; Fasullo, J.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.


    The dynamics of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are known to be sensitive to changes in background climate conditions, as well as atmosphere/ocean feedbacks. However, the degree to which shifts in ENSO characteristics can be robustly attributed to external climate forcings remains unknown. Efforts to assess these changes in a multi-model framework are subject to uncertainties due to both differing model physics and internal ENSO variability. New community ensembles created at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory are ideally suited to addressing this problem, providing many realizations of the climate of the 850-2100 period with a combination of both natural and anthropogenic climate forcing factors. Here we analyze the impacts of external forcing on El Nino and La Nina evolution using four sets of simulations: the CESM Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME), which covers the 850-2005 period and provides long-term context for forced responses; the Large Ensemble (CESM-LE), which includes 20th century and 21st century (RCP8.5) projections; the Medium Ensemble (CESM-ME), which is composed of 21st century RCP4.5 projections; and a large ensemble with the GFDL ESM2M, which includes 20th century and RCP8.5 projections. In the CESM, ENSO variance increases slightly over the 20th century in all ensembles, with the effects becoming much larger during the 21st. The slower increase in variance over the 20th century is shown to arise from compensating influences from greenhouse gas (GHG) and anthropogenic aerosol emissions, which give way to GHG-dominated effects by 2100. However, the 21st century variance increase is not robust: CESM and the ESM2M differ drastically in their ENSO projections. The mechanisms for these inter-model differences are discussed, as are the implications for the design of future multi-model ENSO projection experiments.

  11. ENSO-driven nutrient variability recorded by central equatorial Pacific corals (United States)

    LaVigne, M.; Nurhati, I. S.; Cobb, K. M.; McGregor, H. V.; Sinclair, D. J.; Sherrell, R. M.


    Recent evidence for shifts in global ocean primary productivity suggests that surface ocean nutrient availability is a key link between global climate and ocean carbon cycling. Time-series records from satellite, in situ buoy sensors, and bottle sampling have documented the impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on equatorial Pacific hydrography and broad changes in biogeochemistry since the late 1990's, however, data are sparse prior to this. Here we use a new paleoceanographic nutrient proxy, coral P/Ca, to explore the impact of ENSO on nutrient availability in the central equatorial Pacific at higher-resolution than available from in situ nutrient data. Corals from Christmas (157°W 2°N) and Fanning (159°W 4°N) Islands recorded a well-documented decrease in equatorial upwelling as a ~40% decrease in P/Ca during the 1997-98 ENSO cycle, validating the application of this proxy to Pacific Porites corals. We compare the biogeochemical shifts observed through the 1997-98 event with two pre-TOGA-TAO ENSO cycles (1982-83 and 1986-87) reconstructed from a longer Christmas Island core. All three corals revealed ~30-40% P/Ca depletions during ENSO warming as a result of decreased regional wind stress, thermocline depth, and equatorial upwelling velocity. However, at the termination of each El Niño event, surface nutrients did not return to pre-ENSO levels for ~4-12 months after, SST as a result of increased biological draw down of surface nutrients. These records demonstrate the utility of high-resolution coral nutrient archives for understanding the impact of tropical Pacific climate on the nutrient and carbon cycling of this key region.

  12. Mean-state SST Response to global warming caused by the ENSO Nonlinearity (United States)

    Kohyama, T.; Hartmann, D. L.


    The majority of the models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) exhibit El Niño-like trends under global warming. GFDL-ESM2M, however, is an exception that exhibits a La Niña-like response with strengthened trade winds. Our previous studies have shown that this La Niña-like trend could be a physically consistent warming response, and we proposed the Nonlinear ENSO Warming Suppression (NEWS) mechanism to explain this La Niña-like response to global warming. The most important necessary condition of NEWS is the ENSO skewness (El Niños are stronger than La Niñas). Most CMIP5 models do not reproduce the observed ENSO skewness, while GFDL-ESM2M exhibits the realistic ENSO skewness, which suggests that, despite being in the minority, the La Niña-like trend of GFDL-ESM2M could be a plausible equatorial Pacific response to warming. In this study, we introduce another interesting outlier, MIROC5, which reproduces the observed skewness, yet exhibits an El Niño-like response. By decomposing the source of the ENSO nonlinearity into the following three components: "SST anomalies modulate winds", "winds excite oceanic waves", and "oceanic waves modulate the subsurface temperature", we show that the large inter-model spread of the third component appears to explain the most important cause of the poor reproducibility of the ENSO nonlinearity in CMIP5 models. It is concluded that the change in the response of subsurface temperature to oceanic waves is the primary explanation for the different warming response of GFDL-ESM2M and MIROC5. Our analyses suggest that the difference of the warming response are caused by difference in the climatological thermal stratification. This study may shed new light on the fundamental question of why observed ENSO has a strong skewness and on the implications of this skewed ENSO for the mean-state sea surface temperature response to global warming.

  13. Marine lake ecosystem dynamics illustrate ENSO variation in the tropical western Pacific


    Martin, Laura E; Dawson, Michael N; Bell, Lori J; Colin, Patrick L


    Understanding El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its biological consequences is hindered by a lack of high-resolution, long-term data from the tropical western Pacific. We describe a preliminary, 6 year dataset that shows tightly coupled ENSO-related bio-physical dynamics in a seawater lake in Palau, Micronesia. The lake is more strongly stratified during La Niña than El Niño conditions, temperature anomalies in the lake co-vary strongly with the Niño 3.4 climate index, and the abundance...

  14. ENSO Modulations due to Interannual Variability of Freshwater Forcing and Ocean Biology-induced Heating in the Tropical Pacific. (United States)

    Zhang, Rong-Hua; Gao, Chuan; Kang, Xianbiao; Zhi, Hai; Wang, Zhanggui; Feng, Licheng


    Recent studies have identified clear climate feedbacks associated with interannual variations in freshwater forcing (FWF) and ocean biology-induced heating (OBH) in the tropical Pacific. The interrelationships among the related anomaly fields are analyzed using hybrid coupled model (HCM) simulations to illustrate their combined roles in modulating the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The HCM-based supporting experiments are performed to isolate the related feedbacks, with interannually varying FWF and OBH being represented individually or collectively, which allows their effects to be examined in a clear way. It is demonstrated that the interannual freshwater forcing enhances ENSO variability and slightly prolongs the simulated ENSO period, while the interannual OBH reduces ENSO variability and slightly shortens the ENSO period, with their feedback effects tending to counteract each other.

  15. ENSO surface longwave radiation forcing over the tropical Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. G. Pavlakis


    Full Text Available We have studied the spatial and temporal variation of the surface longwave radiation (downwelling and net over a 21-year period in the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean (40 S–40 N, 90 E–75 W. The fluxes were computed using a deterministic model for atmospheric radiation transfer, along with satellite data from the ISCCP-D2 database and reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR (acronyms explained in main text, for the key atmospheric and surface input parameters. An excellent correlation was found between the downwelling longwave radiation (DLR anomaly and the Niño-3.4 index time-series, over the Niño-3.4 region located in the central Pacific. A high anti-correlation was also found over the western Pacific (15–0 S, 105–130 E. There is convincing evidence that the time series of the mean downwelling longwave radiation anomaly in the western Pacific precedes that in the Niño-3.4 region by 3–4 months. Thus, the downwelling longwave radiation anomaly is a complementary index to the SST anomaly for the study of ENSO events and can be used to asses whether or not El Niño or La Niña conditions prevail. Over the Niño-3.4 region, the mean DLR anomaly values range from +20 Wm−2 during El Niño episodes to −20 Wm−2 during La Niña events, while over the western Pacific (15–0 S, 105–130 E these values range from −15 Wm−2 to +10 Wm−2, respectively. The long- term average (1984–2004 distribution of the net downwelling longwave radiation at the surface over the tropical and subtropical Pacific for the three month period November-December-January shows a net thermal cooling of the ocean surface. When El Niño conditions prevail, the thermal radiative cooling in the central and south-eastern tropical Pacific becomes weaker by 10 Wm−2 south of the equator in the central Pacific (7–0 S, 160–120 W for the three-month period of NDJ, because the DLR increase is larger than the increase in surface thermal emission. In contrast, the

  16. ENSO modulation of seasonal rainfall and extremes in Indonesia (United States)

    Supari; Tangang, Fredolin; Salimun, Ester; Aldrian, Edvin; Sopaheluwakan, Ardhasena; Juneng, Liew


    This paper provides a detailed description of how ENSO events affect seasonal and extreme precipitation over Indonesia. Daily precipitation data from 97 stations across Indonesia covering the period from 1981 to 2012 were used to investigate the effects of El Niño and La Niña on extreme precipitation characteristics including intensity, frequency and duration, as defined based on a subset of the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). Although anomalous signals in these three indices were consistent with those of total rainfall, anomalies in the duration of extremes [i.e., consecutive dry days (CDD) and consecutive wet days (CWD)] were much more robust. El Niño impacts were particularly prominent during June-July-August (JJA) and September-October-November (SON), when anomalously dry conditions were experienced throughout the country. However, from SON, a wet anomaly appeared over northern Sumatra, later expanding eastward during December-January-February (DJF) and March-April-May (MAM), creating contrasting conditions of wet in the west and dry in the east. We attribute this apparent eastward expansion of a wet anomaly during El Niño progression to the equatorial convergence of two anti-cyclonic circulations, one residing north of the equator and the other south of the equator. These anti-cyclonic circulations strengthen and weaken according to seasonal changes and their coupling with regional seas, hence shaping moisture transport and convergence. During La Niña events, the eastward expansion of an opposite (i.e., dry) anomaly was also present but less prominent than that of El Niño. We attribute this to differences in regional ocean—atmosphere coupling, which result in the contrasting seasonal evolution of the two corresponding anomalous cyclonic circulations and in turn suggests the strong nonlinearity of El Niño and La Niña responses over the Maritime Continent. Based on the seasonal behaviour of anomalous CDD and CWD, we

  17. A metric for quantifying El Niño pattern diversity with implications for ENSO-mean state interaction (United States)

    Lemmon, Danielle E.; Karnauskas, Kristopher B.


    Recent research on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon increasingly reveals the highly complex and diverse nature of ENSO variability. A method of quantifying ENSO spatial pattern uniqueness and diversity is presented, which enables (1) formally distinguishing between unique and "canonical" El Niño events, (2) testing whether historical model simulations aptly capture ENSO diversity by comparing with instrumental observations, (3) projecting future ENSO diversity using future model simulations, (4) understanding the dynamics that give rise to ENSO diversity, and (5) analyzing the associated diversity of ENSO-related atmospheric teleconnection patterns. Here we develop a framework for measuring El Niño spatial SST pattern uniqueness and diversity for a given set of El Niño events using two indices, the El Niño Pattern Uniqueness (EPU) index and El Niño Pattern Diversity (EPD) index, respectively. By applying this framework to instrumental records, we independently confirm a recent regime shift in El Niño pattern diversity with an increase in unique El Niño event sea surface temperature patterns. However, the same regime shift is not observed in historical CMIP5 model simulations; moreover, a comparison between historical and future CMIP5 model scenarios shows no robust change in future ENSO diversity. Finally, we support recent work that asserts a link between the background cooling of the eastern tropical Pacific and changes in ENSO diversity. This robust link between an eastern Pacific cooling mode and ENSO diversity is observed not only in instrumental reconstructions and reanalysis, but also in historical and future CMIP5 model simulations.

  18. ENSO-induced inter-annual sea level variability in the Singapore strait

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Soumya, M.; Vethamony, P.; Tkalich, P.

    Sea level data from four tide gauge stations in the SS (Tanjong Pagar, Sultan Shoal, Sembawang and Raffles Lighthouse) for the period 1970-2012 were extracted to study the ENSO-induced interannual sea level variability Sea level during this period...

  19. Marine lake ecosystem dynamics illustrate ENSO variation in the tropical western Pacific. (United States)

    Martin, Laura E; Dawson, Michael N; Bell, Lori J; Colin, Patrick L


    Understanding El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its biological consequences is hindered by a lack of high-resolution, long-term data from the tropical western Pacific. We describe a preliminary, 6 year dataset that shows tightly coupled ENSO-related bio-physical dynamics in a seawater lake in Palau, Micronesia. The lake is more strongly stratified during La Niña than El Niño conditions, temperature anomalies in the lake co-vary strongly with the Niño 3.4 climate index, and the abundance of the dominant member of the pelagic community, an endemic subspecies of zooxanthellate jellyfish, is temperature associated. These results have broad relevance because the lake: (i) illustrates an ENSO signal that is partly obscured in surrounding semi-enclosed lagoon waters and, therefore, (ii) may provide a model system for studying the effects of climate change on community evolution and cnidarian-zooxanthellae symbioses, which (iii) should be traceable throughout the Holocene because the lake harbours a high quality sediment record; the sediment record should (iv) provide a sensitive and regionally unique record of Holocene climate relevant to predicting ENSO responses to future global climate change and, finally, (v) seawater lake ecosystems elsewhere in the Pacific may hold similar potential for past, present, and predictive measurements of climate variation and ecosystem response.

  20. Tree Carbohydrate Dynamics Across a Rainfall Gradient in Panama During the 2016 ENSO (United States)

    Dickman, L. T.; Xu, C.; Behar, H.; McDowell, N.


    Non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) provide a measure of the carbon supply available to support respiration, growth, and defense. Support for a role of carbon starvation - or depletion of NSC stores - in drought induced tree mortality is varied without consensus for the tropics. The 2016 ENSO drought provided a unique opportunity to capture drought impacts on tropical forest carbohydrate dynamics. To quantify these impacts, we collected monthly NSC samples across a rainfall gradient in Panama for the duration of the ENSO. We observed high variability in foliar NSC among species within sites. Foliage contained very little starch, indicating that total NSC dynamics are driven by soluble sugars. Foliar NSC depletion did not progress with drought duration as predicted, but showed little variation over course of the ENSO. Foliar NSC did, however, increase with rainfall, suggesting NSC depletion may occur with longer-term drought. These results suggest that, while short-term droughts like the 2016 ENSO may not have a significant impact on carbon dynamics, we may observe greater impacts as drought progresses over longer timescales. These results will be used to evaluate whether the current implementation of carbon starvation in climate models are capturing observed trends in tropical forest carbon allocation and mortality, and to tune model parameters for improved predictive capability.

  1. Equatorial Precession Drove Mid-Latitude Changes in ENSO-Scale Variation in the Earliest Miocene (United States)

    Fox, B.; D'Andrea, W. J.; Lee, D. E.; Wilson, G. S.


    Foulden Maar is an annually laminated lacustrine diatomite deposit from the South Island of New Zealand. The deposit was laid down over ~100 kyr of the latest Oligocene and earliest Miocene, during the peak and deglaciation phase of the Mi-1 Antarctic glaciation event. At this time, New Zealand was located at approximately the same latitude as today (~45°S). Evidence from organic geochemical proxies (δD, δ13C) and physical properties (density, colour) indicates the presence of an 11-kyr cycle at the site. Although it is known that 11-kyr insolation (half-precession) cycles occur between the Tropics, this cycle is rarely seen in sedimentary archives deposited outside the immediate vicinity of the Equator. Records from Foulden Maar correlate well with the amplitude and phase of the modelled equatorial half-precession cycle for the earliest Miocene. High-resolution (50 µm) colour intensity measurements and lamina thickness measurements both indicate the presence of significant ENSO-like (2-8 year) variation in the Foulden Maar sediments. Early results from targeted lamina thickness measurements suggest that ENSO-band variation is modulated by the 11-kyr cycle, with power in the ENSO band increasing during periods of increased insolation at the Equator. This implies that equatorial half-precession had a significant effect on ENSO-like variation in the early Miocene, and that this effect was felt as far afield as the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere.

  2. Impact of 1990-'95 ENSO/WEPO event on Indian monsoon rainfall

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gopinathan, C.K.

    The negative phase of the 1990-'95 El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the associated Warming of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean (WEPO) was the longest observed in the 113 years of its recorded history, compared to its normal duration of 1 to 2...

  3. Tree establishment along an ENSO experimental gradient in the Atacama desert

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Squeo, F.A.; Holmgren, M.; Jimenez, L.; Alban, L.; Reyes, J.; Gutierrez, J.R.


    Questions: (1) What are the roles of regional climate and plant growth rate for seedling establishment during ENSO rainy pulses along the western coast of South America? (2) What is the water threshold for tree seedling establishment in these arid ecosystems? Location: Atacama Desert, western South

  4. Effect of AMOC collapse on ENSO in a high resolution general circulation model (United States)

    Williamson, Mark S.; Collins, Mat; Drijfhout, Sybren S.; Kahana, Ron; Mecking, Jennifer V.; Lenton, Timothy M.


    We look at changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a high-resolution eddy-permitting climate model experiment in which the Atlantic Meridional Circulation (AMOC) is switched off using freshwater hosing. The ENSO mode is shifted eastward and its period becomes longer and more regular when the AMOC is off. The eastward shift can be attributed to an anomalous eastern Ekman transport in the mean equatorial Pacific ocean state. Convergence of this transport deepens the thermocline in the eastern tropical Pacific and increases the temperature anomaly relaxation time, causing increased ENSO period. The anomalous Ekman transport is caused by a surface northerly wind anomaly in response to the meridional sea surface temperature dipole that results from switching the AMOC off. In contrast to a previous study with an earlier version of the model, which showed an increase in ENSO amplitude in an AMOC off experiment, here the amplitude remains the same as in the AMOC on control state. We attribute this difference to variations in the response of decreased stochastic forcing in the different models, which competes with the reduced damping of temperature anomalies. In the new high-resolution model, these effects approximately cancel resulting in no change in amplitude.

  5. Corporate social responsibility as a business strategy: Stora Enso-WWF partnership project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tysiachniouk, M.S.


    The paper analyzes the strategic partnership between transnational corporation Stora-Enso and international nongovernmental organization NGO WWF as a business strategy that helps the company to adopt its business to the turbulent environment of the economy in transition. In this paper I draw from

  6. The 1950-1998 warm ENSO events and regional implications to ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    1998 seasonal El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is investigated in 502 rivers gauged in 9 countries of the Southern African region. We found some evidence of possible links between available surface water resources in terms of mean annual ...

  7. ENSO shifts and their link to Southern Africa surface air temperature in summer (United States)

    Manatsa, D.; Mukwada, G.; Makaba, L.


    ENSO has been known to influence the trends of summer warming over Southern Africa. In this work, we used observational and reanalysis data to analyze the relationship between ENSO and maximum surface air temperature (SATmax) trends during the three epochs created by the ENSO phase shifts around 1977 and 1997 for the period 1960 to 2014. We observed that while ENSO and cloud cover remains the dominant factor controlling SATmax variability, the first two epochs had the predominant La Niña (El Niño)-like events connected to robust positive (negative) trends in cloud fraction. However, this established relationship reversed in the post-1997 La Niña-like dominated epoch which coincided with a falling cloud cover trend. It is established that this deviation from the previously established link within the previous epochs could be due to the post-1998 era in which SATmin was suppressed while SATmax was enhanced. The resulting increase in diurnal temperature range (DTR) could have discouraged the formation of low-level clouds which have relatively more extensive areal coverage and hence allowing more solar energy to reach the surface to boost daytime SATmax. It is noted that these relationships are more pronounced from December to March.

  8. Impact of ENSO events on the Kruger National Park’s vegetation

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Wessels, Konrad J


    Full Text Available the Kruger National Park shows the strong relationship between the ENSO episodes (droughts during El Niño and high rainfall during La Niña episodes), rainfall, grass production and satellite time-series data of vegetation activity. El Niño conditions have...

  9. Influence of surface nudging on climatological mean and ENSO feedbacks in a coupled model (United States)

    Zhu, Jieshun; Kumar, Arun


    Studies have suggested that surface nudging could be an efficient way to reconstruct the subsurface ocean variability, and thus a useful method for initializing climate predictions (e.g., seasonal and decadal predictions). Surface nudging is also the basis for climate models with flux adjustments. In this study, however, some negative aspects of surface nudging on climate simulations in a coupled model are identified. Specifically, a low-resolution version of the NCEP Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2L) is used to examine the influence of nudging on simulations of climatological mean and on the coupled feedbacks during ENSO. The effect on ENSO feedbacks is diagnosed following a heat budget analysis of mixed layer temperature anomalies. Diagnostics of the climatological mean state indicates that, even though SST biases in all ocean basins, as expected, are eliminated, the fidelity of climatological precipitation, surface winds and subsurface temperature (or the thermocline depth) could be highly ocean basin dependent. This is exemplified by improvements in the climatology of these variables in the tropical Atlantic, but degradations in the tropical Pacific. Furthermore, surface nudging also distorts the dynamical feedbacks during ENSO. For example, while the thermocline feedback played a critical role during the evolution of ENSO in a free simulation, it only played a minor role in the nudged simulation. These results imply that, even though the simulation of surface temperature could be improved in a climate model with surface nudging, the physics behind might be unrealistic.

  10. Reforecasting the ENSO Events in the Past Fifty-Seven Years (1958-2014) (United States)

    Huang, B.; Shin, C. S.; Shukla, J.; Marx, L.; Balmaseda, M.; Halder, S.; Dirmeyer, P.; Kinter, J. L.


    A set of ensemble seasonal reforecasts for 1958-2014 is conducted using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), initialized with observation-based ocean, atmosphere, land and sea ice reanalyses, including the Eu­ropean Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global ocean reanalysis version 4, the ERA-40 atmospheric reanalysis, the NCEP CFS Reanalysis for atmosphere, land and sea ice, and the NASA Global Land Data Assimilation System reanalysis version 2.0 for land. The purpose is to examine a long and continuous seasonal reforecast dataset from a modern seasonal forecast system to be used by the research community. In comparison with other current reforecasts, this dataset allows us to evaluate the degree to which El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events can be predicted, using a larger sample of events. Furthermore, we can directly compare the predictability of the ENSO events in 1960s-70s with the more widely studied ENSO events occurring since the 1980s to examine the state-of-the-art seasonal forecast system's capability at different phases of global climate change and multidecadal variability. A major concern is whether the seasonal reforecasts before 1979 have useful skill when there were fewer ocean observations. Our preliminary examination of the reforecasts shows that, although the reforecasts have lower skill in predicting the SST anomalies in the North Pacific and North Atlantic before 1979, the prediction skill of the ENSO onset and development for 1958-1978 is comparable to that for 1979-2014. The skill of the earlier predictions declines faster in the ENSO decaying phase because the reforecasts initialized after the summer season persistently predict lingering wind and SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific during the decaying phase of several major ENSO events in the 1960s-70s. Since the 1980s, the reforecasts initialized in fall overestimate the peak SST

  11. Tailoring wheat management to ENSO phases for increased wheat production in Paraguay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melissa A. Ramirez-Rodrigues


    Full Text Available Reported regional wheat yields in Paraguay vary from 1 to 3 t/ha from year to year, but appear not to be correlated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO phases. Historical weather data from two locations in representative wheat-growing regions of Paraguay, Encarnación-Itapúa and Ciudad del Este-Alto Paraná combined with crop modeling, were analyzed to optimize nitrogen (N fertilizer application rates according to the ENSO phase of a growing season. The ENSO phase of a growing season was defined based on the average of the sea surface temperature (SST anomalies in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific region for the period June–October using the El Niño region 3.0 index (Niño 3.0. Simulated average yields in Alto Paraná were higher in the drier and cooler La Niña wheat-growing seasons (average of 3.5 t/ha compared to the other phases (average of 3.2 t/ha and in Itapúa, in Neutral seasons (average of 3.8 t/ha compared to the other phases (average of 3.7 t/ha. Accordingly, optimal N fertilizer applications ranged between 20 and 60 kg N/ha between phases depending on the sowing date, soil type and initial amount of soil water content. Applying an ENSO or General Circulation Model (GCM-based forecast for ENSO-season-type specific N fertilizer applications resulted in benefits of >100 US$/ha when compared with current farmers’ practice of consistently low N fertilizer applications in Paraguay. When N management based on forecasts was compared with optimized N application without forecast, the benefits of the forecast was only up to 8 US$/ha. The ENSO-persistence-based forecast showed higher values than the GCM-based forecasts with two lead-times but lower skill. Using climate information can significantly increase current wheat yields and gross margins in Paraguay by tailoring N fertilizer applications to the Niño 3.0-defined ENSO phases, which can be forecasted with moderate skill at the beginning of the growing season.

  12. Evaluation of the impact of ENSO on precipitation extremes in southern Brazil considering the ODP phases (United States)

    Firpo, M. A.; Sansigolo, C. A.


    One of the most important modes of interannual variability from ocean-atmosphere system is the El Niño/Southern Oscillation - ENSO. The Brazil southern region belongs to the Southeast of South America, where there is a strong signal of ENSO, especially over the precipitation. This phenomenon can be modulated by low frequency climate patterns, especially the dominant pattern of North Pacific, called Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Attempting to better understand these interactions, the objective of this study was to investigate the seasonal impact of ENSO events over the Southern Brazil precipitation, taking into account the PDO phases. The dataset used in this study, consist of monthly precipitation records of six well distributed stations from southern Brazil (Rio Grande do Sul state). From these series it was calculated a unique index, which was categorized in three classes, in order to obtain the extremes: very below normal precipitation (below the percentile 10), normal precipitation (between percentile 10 and 90) and very above normal precipitation (above the percentile 90). To characterize the ENSO events, it was applied the Trenberth (1997) criteria in the index proposed by Bunge and Clarke (2009), which corrects the inconsistencies between the conventional SST index for Niño 3.4 region and the Southern Oscillation Index before 1950, going beyond the incoherence for decadal scale. For PDO, it was used the index proposed by Mantua et al. (1997). Contingency tables were constructed to analyze the seasonal, simultaneous, and 3, 6, 9 and 12 months lagged relationships between ENSO events (El Niño, neutral, La Niña), and extreme precipitation anomalies (categories), also considering the PDO phases during the 1913-1999 period. Moreover, a wavelet analysis was used to check the coherency and phase among these 3 times series during the 1913-2006 period. The Contingency Tables analysis showed that, generally, there were more positive (negative) precipitation

  13. Interdecadal Change in the Relationship Between the North Pacific Oscillation and the Pacific Meridional Mode and Its Impact on ENSO (United States)

    Shin, So-Jung; An, Soon-Il


    Two leading but independent modes of Northern Pacific atmospheric circulation: the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and the Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM), are known external triggers of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by the sequential migration of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies into the tropics possibly by means of wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedbacks. Because of the similar roles of NPO and PMM, most previous studies have explored them with no separation. Here, we investigate their independent and combined effects in triggering ENSO, and find that when the NPO and PMM occur simultaneously during spring, ENSO or ENSO-like SST anomalies are generated during the following winter; whereas when either the NPO or PMM occur alone, ENSO events rarely occur. Furthermore, the relationship between NPO and PMM shows noticeable interdecadal variability, which is related to decadal changes in the mean upper-level jet stream over the North Pacific. Changes in the upper-level jet stream modify the location of the center of the Aleutian Low, which plays a role in bridging the NPO and PMM processes, especially when it migrates to the southwest. The period when NPO and PMM are well correlated coincides somewhat with the active ENSO period, and vice versa, indicating that a more efficient trigger due to combined NPO-PMM processes results in a higher variation of ENSO. Finally, analysis of the coupled model control simulations strongly supports our observational analysis results.

  14. Assessing probabilistic predictions of ENSO phase and intensity from the North American Multimodel Ensemble (United States)

    Tippett, Michael K.; Ranganathan, Meghana; L'Heureux, Michelle; Barnston, Anthony G.; DelSole, Timothy


    Here we examine the skill of three, five, and seven-category monthly ENSO probability forecasts (1982-2015) from single and multi-model ensemble integrations of the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) project. Three-category forecasts are typical and provide probabilities for the ENSO phase (El Niño, La Niña or neutral). Additional forecast categories indicate the likelihood of ENSO conditions being weak, moderate or strong. The level of skill observed for differing numbers of forecast categories can help to determine the appropriate degree of forecast precision. However, the dependence of the skill score itself on the number of forecast categories must be taken into account. For reliable forecasts with same quality, the ranked probability skill score (RPSS) is fairly insensitive to the number of categories, while the logarithmic skill score (LSS) is an information measure and increases as categories are added. The ignorance skill score decreases to zero as forecast categories are added, regardless of skill level. For all models, forecast formats and skill scores, the northern spring predictability barrier explains much of the dependence of skill on target month and forecast lead. RPSS values for monthly ENSO forecasts show little dependence on the number of categories. However, the LSS of multimodel ensemble forecasts with five and seven categories show statistically significant advantages over the three-category forecasts for the targets and leads that are least affected by the spring predictability barrier. These findings indicate that current prediction systems are capable of providing more detailed probabilistic forecasts of ENSO phase and amplitude than are typically provided.

  15. A New ENSO Index Derived from Satellite Measurements of Column Ozone (United States)

    Ziemke, J. R.; Chandra, S.; Oman, L. D.; Bhartia, P. K.


    Column Ozone measured in tropical latitudes from Nimbus 7 total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS), Earth Probe TOMS, solar backscatter ultraviolet (SBUV), and Aura ozone monitoring instrument (OMI) are used to derive an El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index. This index, which covers a time period from 1979 to the present, is defined as the Ozone ENSO Index (OEI) and is the first developed from atmospheric trace gas measurements. The OEI is constructed by first averaging monthly mean column ozone over two broad regions in the western and eastern Pacific and then taking their difference. This differencing yields a self-calibrating ENSO index which is independent of individual instrument calibration offsets and drifts in measurements over the long record. The combined Aura OMI and MLS ozone data confirm that zonal variability in total column ozone in the tropics caused by ENSO events lies almost entirely in the troposphere. As a result, the OEI can be derived directly from total column ozone instead of tropospheric column ozone. For clear-sky ozone measurements a +1K change in Nino 3.4 index corresponds to +2.9 Dobson Unit (DU) change in the OEI, while a +1 hPa change in SOI coincides with a -1.7DU change in the OEI. For ozone measurements under all cloud conditions these numbers are +2.4DU and -1.4 DU, respectively. As an ENSO index based upon ozone, it is potentially useful in evaluating climate models predicting long term changes in ozone and other trace gases.

  16. ENSO-Based Index Insurance: Approach and Peru Flood Risk Management Application (United States)

    Khalil, A. F.; Kwon, H.; Lall, U.; Miranda, M. J.; Skees, J. R.


    Index insurance has recently been advocated as a useful risk transfer tool for disaster management situations where rapid fiscal relief is desirable, and where estimating insured losses may be difficult, time consuming, or subject to manipulation and falsification. For climate related hazards, a rainfall or temperature index may be proposed. However, rainfall may be highly spatially variable relative to the gauge network, and in many locations data are inadequate to develop an index due to short time-series and the spatial dispersion of stations. In such cases, it may be helpful to consider a climate proxy index as a regional rainfall index. This is particularly useful if a long record is available for the climate index through an independent source and it is well correlated with the regional rainfall hazard. Here, ENSO related climate indices are explored for use as a proxy to extreme rainfall in one of the departments of Peru -- Piura. The ENSO index insurance product may be purchased by banks or microfinance institutions (MFIs) to aid agricultural damage relief in Peru. Crop losses in the region are highly correlated with floods, but are difficult to assess directly. Beyond agriculture, many other sectors suffer as well. Basic infrastructure is destroyed during the most severe events. This disrupts trade for many micro-enterprises. The reliability and quality of the local rainfall data is variable. Averaging the financial risk across the region is desirable. Some issues with the implementation of the proxy ENSO index are identified and discussed. Specifically, we explore (a) the reliability of the index at different levels of probability of exceedance of maximum seasonal rainfall; (b) the potential for clustering of payoffs; (c) the potential that the index could be predicted with some lead time prior to the flood season; and (d) evidence for climate change or non-stationarity in the flood exceedance probability from the long ENSO record. Finally, prospects for

  17. An MJO-Mediated Mechanism to Explain ENSO and IOD Impacts on East African Short Rains (United States)

    Zaitchik, B. F.; Berhane, F.; Gnanadesikan, A.


    Previous studies have found that the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) have significant impacts on rainfall over East Africa (EA) during the short rains (Oct-Dec). However, not all ENSO and IOD events are associated with significant precipitation anomalies over EA. Our analysis shows that the IOD and ENSO influence EA rainfall by modifying the MJO. Composite analysis of rainfall and outgoing longwave radiation data show that the MJO over the Indian Ocean (phases 2 and 3 of the Wheeler and Hendon index) is associated with significant increase in precipitation over EA during El Niño. In La Niña and non-ENSO years, the MJO over the Indian Ocean has very weak impacts on EA convection and precipitation. Although previous studies have found that El Niño / La Niña events are associated with anomalous wetness/dryness over EA, the associations are not evident in the absence of the MJO. Similarly, the IOD exhibits strong associations with EA precipitation when there is MJO activity over the Indian Ocean. During the positive phase of the IOD, the MJO over the Indian Ocean has impacts that extend to EA. In the absence of the MJO, however, the IOD shows weak associations with EA precipitation. Furthermore, there are more MJO days in the Indian Ocean during El Niño and positive IOD events, which implies stronger impacts on EA. During La Niña events more MJO days are observed in the Pacific Ocean, favoring subsidence over the western Indian Ocean and dry anomalies over EA. These observations suggest two critical MJO-related questions that must be addressed in order to explain EA short rain variability typically attributed to ENSO or IOD: first, how do ENSO and IOD modify background conditions in a way that causes Indian Ocean MJO activity to be more strongly connected to EA under El Niño and IOD positive conditions, and second, why is it that El Niño and IOD positive states slow MJO propagation over the Indian Ocean and speed it over

  18. Influence of ENSO on coastal flood hazard and exposure at the global-scale (United States)

    Muis, S.; Haigh, I. D.; Guimarães Nobre, G.; Aerts, J.; Ward, P.


    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant signal of interannual climate variability. The unusually warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific drives interannual variability in both mean and extreme sea levels, which in turn may influence the probabilities and impacts of coastal flooding. We assess the influence of ENSO on coastal flood hazard and exposure using daily timeseries from the Global Time and Surge Reanalysis (GTSR) dataset (Muis et al., 2016). As the GTSR timeseries do not include steric effects (i.e. density differences), we improve the GTSR timeseries by adding steric sea levels. Evaluation against observed sea levels shows that the including steric sea levels leads to a much better representation of the seasonal and interannual variability. We show that sea level anomalies occur during ENSO years with higher sea levels during La Niña in the South-Atlantic, Indian Ocean and the West Pacific, whereas sea levels are lower in the east Pacific. The pattern is generally inversed for El Niño. We also find an effect of ENSO in the number of people exposed to coastal flooding. Although the effect is minor at the global-scale, it may be important for flood risk management to consider at the national or sub national levels. Previous studies at the global-scale have used tide gauge observation to assess the influence of ENSO on extreme sea levels. The advantage of our approach over observations is that GTSR provides a consistent dataset with a full global coverage for the period 1979-2014. This allows us to assess ENSO's influence on sea level extremes anywhere in the world. Furthermore, it enables us to also calculate the impacts of extreme sea levels in terms of coastal flooding and exposed population. ReferencesMuis et al (2016) A global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme sea levels. Nature Communications.7:11969. doi:10.1038/ncomms11969.

  19. Sensitivity of Water Scarcity Events to ENSO-Driven Climate Variability at the Global Scale (United States)

    Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Eisner, S.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.


    Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and, in some regions, climate change. Although it is well-known that El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects patterns of precipitation and drought at global and regional scales, little attention has yet been paid to the impacts of climate variability on water scarcity conditions, despite its importance for adaptation planning. Therefore, we present the first global-scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity to ENSO, the most dominant signal of climate variability. We show that over the time period 1961-2010, both water availability and water scarcity conditions are significantly correlated with ENSO-driven climate variability over a large proportion of the global land area (> 28.1 %); an area inhabited by more than 31.4% of the global population. We also found, however, that climate variability alone is often not enough to trigger the actual incidence of water scarcity events. The sensitivity of a region to water scarcity events, expressed in terms of land area or population exposed, is determined by both hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Currently, the population actually impacted by water scarcity events consists of 39.6% (CTA: consumption-to-availability ratio) and 41.1% (WCI: water crowding index) of the global population, whilst only 11.4% (CTA) and 15.9% (WCI) of the global population is at the same time living in areas sensitive to ENSO-driven climate variability. These results are contrasted, however, by differences in growth rates found under changing socioeconomic conditions, which are relatively high in regions exposed to water scarcity events. Given the correlations found between ENSO and water availability and scarcity

  20. Biennial-Aligned Lunisolar-Forcing of ENSO: Implications for Simplified Climate Models (United States)

    Pukite, P. R.


    By solving Laplace's tidal equations along the equatorial Pacific thermocline, assuming a delayed-differential effective gravity forcing due to a combined lunar+solar (lunisolar) stimulus, we are able to precisely match ENSO periodic variations over wide intervals. The underlying pattern is difficult to decode by conventional means such as spectral analysis, which is why it has remained hidden for so long, despite the excellent agreement in the time-domain. What occurs is that a non-linear seasonal modulation with monthly and fortnightly lunar impulses along with a biennially-aligned "see-saw" is enough to cause a physical aliasing and thus multiple folding in the frequency spectrum. So, instead of a conventional spectral tidal decomposition, we opted for a time-domain cross-validating approach to calibrate the amplitude and phasing of the lunisolar cycles. As the lunar forcing consists of three fundamental periods (draconic, anomalistic, synodic), we used the measured Earth's length-of-day (LOD) decomposed and resolved at a monthly time-scale [1] to align the amplitude and phase precisely. Even slight variations from the known values of the long-period tides will degrade the fit, so a high-resolution calibration is possible. Moreover, a narrow training segment from 1880-1920 using NINO34/SOI data is adequate to extrapolate the cycles of the past 100 years (see attached figure). To further understand the biennial impact of a yearly differential-delay, we were able to also decompose using difference equations the historical sea-level-height readings at Sydney harbor to clearly expose the ENSO behavior. Finally, the ENSO lunisolar model was validated by back-extrapolating to Unified ENSO coral proxy (UEP) records dating to 1650. The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) behavior of equatorial stratospheric winds derives following a similar pattern to ENSO via the tidal equations, but with an emphasis on draconic forcing. This improvement in ENSO and QBO understanding has

  1. Balances de glaciares y clima en Bolivia y Perú: impacto de los eventos ENSO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)


    Full Text Available BILANS GLACIAIRES ET CLIMAT EN BOLIVIE ET AU PÉROU : IMPACT DES ÉVÉNEMENTS ENSO. À partir d’une reconstruction faite pour le glacier de Zongo (Cordillère Royale, Bolivie avec des données hydrologiques et de l’application du modèle linéaire (Lliboutry sur les données des glaciers Yanamarey et Uruashraju (Cordillère Blanche, Pérou, on a pu disposer de séries de 15-20 ans de bilans de masse. En analysant parallèlement les données recueillies aux stations météorologiques proches, on met en évidence le rôle des températures dans la détermination de ces bilans. La variabilité des températures dépend de façon étroite des phénomènes ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation : pendant ces épisodes, les températures maximales et minimales augmentent sensiblement, ce qui affecte le terme ablation du bilan de masse. On vérifie sur ces séries de 20 ans que toutes les années ENSO sont associées à des bilans négatifs. Pendant la plupart des épisodes ENSO se produit au sud du Pérou et en Bolivie une réduction des précipitations, ce qui contribue à accentuer l’effet ENSO sur les bilans. Ces événements ont une grande influence sur l’évolution actuelle des glaciers andins, caractérisée par un recul rapide. La reconstrucción del balance hidrológico a partir de datos hidrométricos del glaciar de Zongo (Cordillera Real de Bolivia, así como la aplicación del modelo lineal (Lliboutry sobre los datos de balance de los glaciares Yanamarey y Uruashraju (Cordillera Blanca del Perú, ofrecen la posibilidad de disponer de series de 15-20 años de balance de masa. Analizando paralelamente los datos recogidos en estaciones meteorológicas cercanas, se puede evidenciar el rol de las temperaturas en la determinación de estos balances. La variabilidad de las temperaturas depende de una manera estrecha de los eventos ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation: durante estos eventos, las temperaturas máximas y mínimas aumentan

  2. ENSO Effect on East Asian Tropical Cyclone Landfall via Changes in Tracks and Genesis in a Statistical Model (United States)

    Yonekura, Emmi; Hall, Timothy M.


    Improvements on a statistical tropical cyclone (TC) track model in the western North Pacific Ocean are described. The goal of the model is to study the effect of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on East Asian TC landfall. The model is based on the International Best-Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) database of TC observations for 1945-2007 and employs local regression of TC formation rates and track increments on the Nino-3.4 index and seasonally varying climate parameters. The main improvements are the inclusion of ENSO dependence in the track propagation and accounting for seasonality in both genesis and tracks. A comparison of simulations of the 1945-2007 period with observations concludes that the model updates improve the skill of this model in simulating TCs. Changes in TC genesis and tracks are analyzed separately and cumulatively in simulations of stationary extreme ENSO states. ENSO effects on regional (100-km scale) landfall are attributed to changes in genesis and tracks. The effect of ENSO on genesis is predominantly a shift in genesis location from the southeast in El Nino years to the northwest in La Nina years, resulting in higher landfall rates for the East Asian coast during La Nina. The effect of ENSO on track propagation varies seasonally and spatially. In the peak activity season (July-October), there are significant changes in mean tracks with ENSO. Landfall-rate changes from genesis- and track-ENSO effects in the Philippines cancel out, while coastal segments of Vietnam, China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan show enhanced La Nina-year increases.

  3. The multidecadal variations of the interannual relationship between the East Asian summer monsoon and ENSO in a coupled model (United States)

    Liu, Bo; Huang, Gang; Hu, Kaiming; Wu, Renguang; Gong, Hainan; Wang, Pengfei; Zhao, Guijie


    This study investigates the multidecadal variations of the interannual relationship between the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in 1000-year simulation of a coupled climate model. The interannual relationship between ENSO and EASM has experienced pronounced changes throughout the 1000-year simulation. During the periods with significant ENSO-EASM relationship, the ENSO-related circulation anomalies show a Pacific-Japan (PJ)-like pattern with significant wave-activity flux propagating from the tropics to the north in lower troposphere and from the mid-latitudes to the south in upper troposphere. The resultant ENSO-related precipitation anomalies are more (less) than normal over the East Asia (western North Pacific) in the decaying summers of El Niño events. In contrast, the circulation and precipitation anomalies are weak over East Asia-western North Pacific during the periods with weak ENSO-EASM relationship. Based on the energy conversion analysis, the related anomalies achieve barotropic and baroclinic energy from the mean flow during the periods with strong ENSO-EASM relationship. On the contrary, during the low-correlation periods, the energy conversion is too weak to form the link between the tropics and mid-latitudes. The main reason for the multidecadal variations of ENSO-EASM relationship is the amplitude discrepancy of SST anomalies over the Indo-western Pacific Ocean which, in turn, leads to the intensity difference of the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (WPAC) and related climate anomalies.

  4. Role of changed Indo-Pacific atmospheric circulation in the recent disconnect between the Indian summer monsoon and ENSO (United States)

    Feba, F.; Ashok, K.; Ravichandran, M.


    We explore the decadal variability of teleconnection from tropical Pacific to the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) using various observational and Reanalysis datasets for the period 1958-2008. In confirmation with the earlier findings, we find that the interannual correlations between the various SST indices of ENSO and ISMR have continued to weaken. Interestingly, we find that even the robust lead correlations of the tropical pacific warm-water-volume with ISMR have weakened since late 1970s. Our analysis suggests that there is a relative intensification of the cross-equatorial flow from the southern hemisphere into the equatorial Indian Ocean associated with ISMR due to strenghtening of Mascarene High. Further, a shift in the surface wind circulation associated with monsoon over the northern pacific since late 1970s has resulted in a strenghtened cyclonic seasonal circulation south-east of Japan. These changed circulation features are a shift from the known circulation-signatures that efficiently teleconnect El Niño forcing to South Asia. These recent changes effectively weakened the teleconnection of the El Niño to ISMR.

  5. Evaluation of the effects of ENSO teleconnection on climatic parameters fluctuations in Khorasan Province I.R. of Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ehteramian, Kourosh; Shahabfar, Alireza; Gharaei, Sohrab M.; Jamali, Javad B.


    The long term forecasting and monitoring of climatological parameters depends on identification of all effective factors, which are affects on this phenomena. One of these parameters is the weather signal. These signals are determinable and specific pattern and occurs in the distinguished regions in the world, but it's effects are world wide. One of the famous signals is ENSO phenomenon, which have two phases. In this paper with using annual and seasonal correlations between southern oscillation index (SOI) and precipitation and temperature data the effective amounts of ENSO phases on the differences of these factors was studied in the all regions of Khorasan province in Iran, then for more comprehensive study the classification maps in relation of ENSO and variability of precipitation and temperature were drown. It was concluded that the mentioned parameters in the whole of the province especially in central and north strip have shown significant action to ENSO, in other word the average of precipitation and temperature correlation indices are negative annually and seasonally, it means when SOI amounts are increased the precipitation and temperature in Khorasan will be decreased. With regard to increasing the above weather parameters in all regions of Khorasan at the time of ENSO negative phases (El Nino condition) variations of precipitation and temperature could be related to the changes of the pattern of occurrence this phenomenon (ENSO) due to climatic change around the world. (Author)

  6. Relative Contributions of Mean-State Shifts and ENSO-Driven Variability to Precipitation Changes in a Warming Climate*

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bonfils, Céline J. W.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Phillips, Thomas J.; Marvel, Kate; Leung, L. Ruby; Doutriaux, Charles; Capotondi, Antonietta


    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of regional hydroclimate variability through far-reaching teleconnections. Most climate models project an increase in the frequency of extreme El Niño events under increased greenhouse-gas (GHG) forcing. However, it is unclear how other aspects of ENSO and ENSO-driven teleconnections will evolve in the future. Here, we identify in 20th century sea-surface temperature (SST) observations a time-invariant ENSO-like (ENSOL) pattern that is largely uncontaminated by GHG forcing. We use this pattern to investigate the future precipitation (P) response to ENSO-like SST anomalies. Models that better capture observed ENSOL characteristics produce P teleconnection patterns that are in better accord with observations and more stationary in the 21st century. We decompose the future P response to ENSOL into the sum of three terms: (1) the change in P mean state, (2) the historical P response to ENSOL, and (3) a future enhancement in the P response to ENSOL. In many regions, this last term can aggravate the P extremes associated with ENSO variability. This simple decomposition allows us to identify regions likely to experience ENSOL-induced P changes that are without precedent in the current climate.

  7. ENSO Simulation in CGCMs and the Associated Errors in Atmospheric Response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    AchutaRao, K.; Sperber, K.R.


    Tropical Pacific variability, and specifically the simulation of ENSO in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (CGCMs) has previously been assessed in many studies (McCreary and Anderson[1991], Neelin et al.[1992], Mechoso et al.[1995], Latif et al.[2000], and Davey et al.[2000]). These studies have concentrated on SST variations in the tropical Pacific, and discussions of the atmospheric response have been limited to east-west movements of the convergence zone. In this paper we discuss the large-scale atmospheric response to simulated ENSO events. Control simulations from 17 global CGCMs from CMIP (Meehl et al.[2000]) are studied. The web site http:// provides documentation of the configurations of the models

  8. On the physical causes of ENSO events and the ITCZ's extreme latitudinal displacements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Njau, E.C.


    We predict the maximum latitudinal shifts of the Inter-Tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) over land masses due to variations in the surface or near-surface temperature fields. We also predict the mean locations of the ITCZ over oceans during northern hemisphere (NH) and southern hemisphere (SH) summers. All our predictions are shown to agree well with observations. Finally, on the basis of the association between the latitudinal location of the eastern pacific portion of the ITCZ and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events as well as some previous related work (Njau, 1985a; 1985b; 1986; 1987; 1988), we suggest possible physical causes of the ENSO events. (author). 39 refs, 1 fig., 2 tabs

  9. Coral based-ENSO/IOD related climate variability in Indonesia: a review (United States)

    Yudawati Cahyarini, Sri; Henrizan, Marfasran


    Indonesia is located in the prominent site to study climate variability as it lies between Pacific and Indian Ocean. It has consequences to the regional climate in Indonesia that its climate variability is influenced by the climate events in the Pacific oceans (e.g. ENSO) and in the Indian ocean (e.g. IOD), and monsoon as well as Indonesian Throughflow (ITF). Northwestern monsoon causes rainfall in the region of Indonesia, while reversely Southwestern monsoon causes dry season around Indonesia. The ENSO warm phase called El Nino causes several droughts in Indonesian region, reversely the La Nina causes flooding in some regions in Indonesia. However, the impact of ENSO in Indonesia is different from one place to the others. Having better understanding on the climate phenomenon and its impact to the region requires long time series climate data. Paleoclimate study which provides climate data back into hundreds to thousands even to million years overcome this requirement. Coral Sr/Ca can provide information on past sea surface temperature (SST) and paired Sr/Ca and δ18O may be used to reconstruct variations in the precipitation balance (salinity) at monthly to annual interannual resolution. Several climate studies based on coral geochemical records in Indonesia show that coral Sr/Ca and δ18O from Indonesian records SST and salinity respectively. Coral Sr/Ca from inshore Seribu islands complex shows more air temperature rather than SST. Modern coral from Timor shows the impact of ENSO and IOD to the saliniy and SST is different at Timor sea. This result should be taken into account when interpreting Paleoclimate records over Indonesia. Timor coral also shows more pronounced low frequency SST variability compared to the SST reanalysis (model). The longer data of low frequency variability will improve the understanding of warming trend in this climatically important region.

  10. Corporate social responsibility as a business strategy: Stora Enso-WWF partnership project


    Tysiachniouk, M.S.


    The paper analyzes the strategic partnership between transnational corporation Stora-Enso and international nongovernmental organization NGO WWF as a business strategy that helps the company to adopt its business to the turbulent environment of the economy in transition. In this paper I draw from the theory of institutional sociology to explain complex interaction between transnational actors and actors in localities that jointly form a governance generating network in order to implement the ...

  11. Influence of Mean State Changes on the Structure of ENSO in a Tropical Coupled GCM. (United States)

    Codron, Francis; Vintzileos, Augustin; Sadourny, Robert


    This study examines the response of the climate simulated by the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace tropical Pacific coupled general circulation model to two changes in parameterization: an improved coupling scheme at the coast, and the introduction of a saturation mixing ratio limiter in the water vapor advection scheme, which improves the rainfall distribution over and around orography. The main effect of these modifications is the suppression of spurious upwelling off the South American coast in Northern Hemisphere summer. Coupled feedbacks then extend this warming over the whole basin in an El Niño-like structure, with a maximum at the equator and in the eastern part of the basin. The mean precipitation pattern widens and moves equatorward as the trade winds weaken.This warmer mean state leads to a doubling of the standard deviation of interannual SST anomalies, and to a longer ENSO period. The structure of the ENSO cycle also shifts from westward propagation in the original simulation to a standing oscillation. The simulation of El Niño thus improves when compared to recent observed events. The study of ENSO spatial structure and lagged correlations shows that these changes of El Niño characteristics are caused by both the increase of amplitude and the modification of the spatial structure of the wind stress response to SST anomalies.These results show that both the mean state and variability of the tropical ocean can be very sensitive to biases or forcings, even geographically localized. They may also give some insight into the mechanisms responsible for the changes in ENSO characteristics due to decadal variability or climate change.

  12. Linkages between ENSO/PDO signals and precipitation, streamflow in China during the last 100 years (United States)

    Ouyang, R.; Liu, W.; Fu, G.; Liu, C.; Hu, L.; Wang, H.


    This paper investigates the single and combined impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on precipitation and streamflow in China over the last century. Results indicate that the precipitation and streamflow overall decrease during El Niño/PDO warm phase periods and increase during La Niña/PDO cool phase periods in the majority of China, although there are regional and seasonal differences. Precipitation and streamflow in the Yellow River basin, Yangtze River basin and Pearl River basin are more significantly influenced by El Niño and La Niña events than is precipitation and streamflow in the Songhua River basin, especially in October and November. Moreover, significant influence of ENSO on streamflow in the Yangtze River mainly occurs in summer and autumn while in the Pearl River influence primarily occurs in the winter and spring. The precipitation and streamflow are relatively greater in the warm PDO phase in the Songhua River basin and several parts of the Yellow River basin and relatively less in the Pearl River basin and most parts of Northwest China compared to those in the cool PDO phase, though there is little significance detected by Wilcoxon signed-rank test. When considering the combined influence of ENSO and PDO, the responses of precipitation/streamflow are shown to be opposite in northern China and southern China, with ENSO-related precipitation/streamflow enhanced in northern China and decreased in southern China during the warm PDO phases, and enhanced in southern China and decreased in northern China during the cool PDO phases. It is hoped that this study will be beneficial for understanding the precipitation/streamflow responses to the changing climate and will correspondingly provide valuable reference for water resources prediction and management across China.

  13. Decadal modulation of the ENSO-East Asian winter monsoon relationship by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (United States)

    Geng, Xin; Zhang, Wenjun; Stuecker, Malte F.; Liu, Peng; Jin, Fei-Fei; Tan, Guirong


    This work investigates the decadal modulation of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) relationship by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). A stable ENSO-EAWM relationship is found during the positive AMO phase but not during the negative phase. While the impact of El Niño events on the EAWM does not depend on the AMO phase, a different picture is observed for La Niña events. The La Niña boreal winter season coincides with a strengthened EAWM during a positive AMO phase and a weakened EAWM during a negative AMO phase. We suggest that the AMO's modulating effect mainly comprises two pathways that influence ENSO's impact on the EAWM. On one hand, when La Niña coincides with a positive AMO, the warm SST anomalies over the western North Pacific (WNP) are amplified both in intensity and spatial extent, which favors strengthened WNP cyclonic anomalies and an enhanced EAWM. During La Niña with a negative AMO, only very weak SST anomalies occur over the WNP with reduced WNP cyclonic anomalies that are confined to the tropics, thus having little effect on the EAWM. On the other hand, an eastward-propagating Rossby wavetrain across the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia during a warm AMO phase strengthens the Siberian high and thus leads to a strengthened EAWM, while during a cold AMO phase the Siberian high is weakened, leading to a reduced EAWM. In contrast, El Niño and its associated atmospheric responses are relatively strong and stable, independent of the AMO phase. These results carry important implications to the seasonal-to-interannual predictability associated with ENSO.

  14. Atmosphere-Ocean Variations in the Indo-Pacific Sector during ENSO Episodes. (United States)

    Lau, Ngar-Cheung; Nath, Mary Jo


    The influences of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on air-sea interaction in the Indian-western Pacific (IWP) Oceans have been investigated using a general circulation model. Observed monthly sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the deep tropical eastern/central Pacific (DTEP) have been inserted in the lower boundary of this model through the 1950-99 period. At all maritime grid points outside of DTEP, the model atmosphere has been coupled with an oceanic mixed layer model with variable depth. Altogether 16 independent model runs have been conducted.Composite analysis of selected ENSO episodes illustrates that the prescribed SST anomalies in DTEP affect the surface atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns in IWP through displacements of the near-equatorial Walker circulation and generation of Rossby wave modes in the subtropics. Such atmospheric responses modulate the surface fluxes as well as the oceanic mixed layer depth, and thereby establish a well-defined SST anomaly pattern in the IWP sector several months after the peak in ENSO forcing in DTEP. In most parts of the IWP region, the net SST tendency induced by atmospheric changes has the same polarity as the local composite SST anomaly, thus indicating that the atmospheric forcing acts to reinforce the underlying SST signal.By analyzing the output from a suite of auxiliary experiments, it is demonstrated that the SST perturbations in IWP (which are primarily generated by ENSO-related atmospheric changes) can, in turn, exert notable influences on the atmospheric conditions over that region. This feedback mechanism also plays an important role in the eastward migration of the subtropical anticyclones over the western Pacific in both hemispheres.

  15. Impacts of ENSO on air-sea oxygen exchange: Observations and mechanisms (United States)

    Eddebbar, Yassir A.; Long, Matthew C.; Resplandy, Laure; Rödenbeck, Christian; Rodgers, Keith B.; Manizza, Manfredi; Keeling, Ralph F.


    Models and observations of atmospheric potential oxygen (APO ≃ O2 + 1.1 * CO2) are used to investigate the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on air-sea O2 exchange. An atmospheric transport inversion of APO data from the Scripps flask network shows significant interannual variability in tropical APO fluxes that is positively correlated with the Niño3.4 index, indicating anomalous ocean outgassing of APO during El Niño. Hindcast simulations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace model show similar APO sensitivity to ENSO, differing from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model, which shows an opposite APO response. In all models, O2 accounts for most APO flux variations. Detailed analysis in CESM shows that the O2 response is driven primarily by ENSO modulation of the source and rate of equatorial upwelling, which moderates the intensity of O2 uptake due to vertical transport of low-O2 waters. These upwelling changes dominate over counteracting effects of biological productivity and thermally driven O2 exchange. During El Niño, shallower and weaker upwelling leads to anomalous O2 outgassing, whereas deeper and intensified upwelling during La Niña drives enhanced O2 uptake. This response is strongly localized along the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, leading to an equatorial zonal dipole in atmospheric anomalies of APO. This dipole is further intensified by ENSO-related changes in winds, reconciling apparently conflicting APO observations in the tropical Pacific. These findings suggest a substantial and complex response of the oceanic O2 cycle to climate variability that is significantly (>50%) underestimated in magnitude by ocean models.

  16. Mechanism of ENSO influence on the South Asian monsoon rainfall in global model simulations (United States)

    Joshi, Sneh; Kar, Sarat C.


    Coupled ocean atmosphere global climate models are increasingly being used for seasonal scale simulation of the South Asian monsoon. In these models, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) evolve as coupled air-sea interaction process. However, sensitivity experiments with various SST forcing can only be done in an atmosphere-only model. In this study, the Global Forecast System (GFS) model at T126 horizontal resolution has been used to examine the mechanism of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing on the monsoon circulation and rainfall. The model has been integrated (ensemble) with observed, climatological and ENSO SST forcing to document the mechanism on how the South Asian monsoon responds to basin-wide SST variations in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The model simulations indicate that the internal variability gets modulated by the SSTs with warming in the Pacific enhancing the ensemble spread over the monsoon region as compared to cooling conditions. Anomalous easterly wind anomalies cover the Indian region both at 850 and 200 hPa levels during El Niño years. The locations and intensity of Walker and Hadley circulations are altered due to ENSO SST forcing. These lead to reduction of monsoon rainfall over most parts of India during El Niño events compared to La Niña conditions. However, internally generated variability is a major source of uncertainty in the model-simulated climate.

  17. Oceanic Channel of the IOD-ENSO teleconnection over the Indo-Pacific Ocean (United States)

    Yuan, Dongliang; Wang, Jing; Zhao, Xia; Zhou, Hui; Xu, Tengfei; Xu, Peng


    The lag correlations of observations and model simulated data that participate the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 (CMIP5) are used to study the precursory teleconnection between the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the Pacific ENSO one year later through the Indonesian seas. The results suggest that Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) play an important role in the IOD-ENSO teleconnection. Numerical simulations using a hierarchy of ocean models and climate coupled models have shown that the interannual sea level depressions in the southeastern Indian Ocean during IOD force enhanced ITF to transport warm water of the Pacific warm pool to the Indian Ocean, producing cold subsurface temperature anomalies, which propagate to the eastern equatorial Pacific and induce significant coupled ocean-atmosphere evolution. The teleconnection is found to have decadal variability. Similar decadal variability has also been identified in the historical simulations of the CMIP5 models. The dynamics of the inter-basin teleconnection during the positive phases of the decadal variability are diagnosed to be the interannual variations of the ITF associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). During the negative phases, the thermocline in the eastern equatorial Pacific is anomalously deeper so that the sea surface temperature anomalies in the cold tongue are not sensitive to the thermocline depth changes. The IOD-ENSO teleconnection is found not affected significantly by the anthropogenic forcing.

  18. Do our reconstructions of ENSO have too much low-frequency variability? (United States)

    Loope, G. R.; Overpeck, J. T.


    Reconstructing the spectrum of Pacific SST variability has proven to be difficult both because of complications with proxy systems such as tree rings and the relatively small number of records from the tropical Pacific. We show that the small number of long coral δ18O and Sr/Ca records has caused a bias towards having too much low-frequency variability in PCR, CPS, and RegEM reconstructions of Pacific variability. This occurs because the individual coral records used in the reconstructions have redder spectra than the shared signal (e.g. ENSO). This causes some of the unshared, low-frequency signal from local climate, salinity and possibly coral biology to bleed into the reconstruction. With enough chronologies in a reconstruction, this unshared noise cancels out but the problem is exacerbated in our longest reconstructions where fewer records are available. Coral proxies tend to have more low-frequency variability than SST observations so this problem is smaller but can still be seen in pseudoproxy experiments using observations and reanalysis data. The identification of this low-frequency bias in coral reconstructions helps bring the spectra of ENSO reconstructions back into line with both models and observations. Although our analysis is mostly constrained to the 20th century due to lack of sufficient data, we expect that as more long chronologies are developed, the low-frequency signal in ENSO reconstructions will be greatly reduced.

  19. The Influence of ENSO to the Rainfall Variability in North Sumatra Province (United States)

    Irwandi, H.; Pusparini, N.; Ariantono, J. Y.; Kurniawan, R.; Tari, C. A.; Sudrajat, A.


    The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global phenomenon that affects the variability of rainfall in North Sumatra. The influence of ENSO will be different for each region. This review will analyse the influence of ENSO activity on seasonal and annual rainfall variability. In this research, North Sumatra Province will be divided into 4 (four) regions based on topographical conditions, such as: East Coast (EC), East Slope (ES), Mountains (MT), and West Coast (WC). The method used was statistical and descriptive analysis. Data used in this research were rainfall data from 15 stations / climate observation posts which spread in North Sumatera region and also anomaly data of Nino 3.4 region from period 1981-2016. The results showed that the active El Niño had an effect on the decreasing the rainfall during the period of DJF, JJA and SON in East Coast, East Slope, and Mountains with the decreasing of average percentage of annual rainfall up to 7%. On the contrary, the active La Nina had an effect on the addition of rainfall during the period DJF and JJA in the East Coast and Mountains with the increasing of average percentage of annual rainfall up to 6%.

  20. Mesoscale Convective Complexes (MCCs) over the Indonesian Maritime Continent during the ENSO events (United States)

    Trismidianto; Satyawardhana, H.


    This study analyzed the mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs) over the Indonesian Maritime Continent (IMC) during the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events for the the15-year period from 2001 to 2015. The MCCs identified by infrared satellite imagery that obtained from the Himawari generation satellite data. This study has reported that the frequencies of the MCC occurrences at the El Niño and La Niña were higher than that of neutral conditions during DJF. Peak of MCC occurrences during DJF at La Niña and neutral condition is in February, while El Niño is in January. ENSO strongly affects the occurrence of MCC during the DJF season. The existences of the MCC were also accompanied by increased rainfall intensity at the locations of the MCC occurrences for all ENSO events. During JJA seasons, the MCC occurrences are always found during neutral conditions, El Niño and La Niña in Indian Ocean. MCC occurring during the JJA season on El Niño and neutral conditions averaged much longer than during the DJF season. In contrast, MCCs occurring in La Niña conditions during the JJA season are more rapidly extinct than during the DJF. It indicates that the influence of MCC during La Niña during the DJF season is stronger than during the JJA season.

  1. Cyclic Markov chains with an application to an intermediate ENSO model

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    R. A. Pasmanter


    Full Text Available We develop the theory of cyclic Markov chains and apply it to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO predictability problem. At the core of Markov chain modelling is a partition of the state space such that the transition rates between different state space cells can be computed and used most efficiently. We apply a partition technique, which divides the state space into multidimensional cells containing an equal number of data points. This partition leads to mathematical properties of the transition matrices which can be exploited further such as to establish connections with the dynamical theory of unstable periodic orbits. We introduce the concept of most and least predictable states. The data basis of our analysis consists of a multicentury-long data set obtained from an intermediate coupled atmosphere-ocean model of the tropical Pacific. This cyclostationary Markov chain approach captures the spring barrier in ENSO predictability and gives insight also into the dependence of ENSO predictability on the climatic state.

  2. Effects of ocean initial perturbation on developing phase of ENSO in a coupled seasonal prediction model (United States)

    Lee, Hyun-Chul; Kumar, Arun; Wang, Wanqiu


    Coupled prediction systems for seasonal and inter-annual variability in the tropical Pacific are initialized from ocean analyses. In ocean initial states, small scale perturbations are inevitably smoothed or distorted by the observational limits and data assimilation procedures, which tends to induce potential ocean initial errors for the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction. Here, the evolution and effects of ocean initial errors from the small scale perturbation on the developing phase of ENSO are investigated by an ensemble of coupled model predictions. Results show that the ocean initial errors at the thermocline in the western tropical Pacific grow rapidly to project on the first mode of equatorial Kelvin wave and propagate to the east along the thermocline. In boreal spring when the surface buoyancy flux weakens in the eastern tropical Pacific, the subsurface errors influence sea surface temperature variability and would account for the seasonal dependence of prediction skill in the NINO3 region. It is concluded that the ENSO prediction in the eastern tropical Pacific after boreal spring can be improved by increasing the observational accuracy of subsurface ocean initial states in the western tropical Pacific.

  3. Analysis of the Effects of ENSO and Atmospheric Rivers on Precipitation in Los Angeles County (United States)

    Santacruz, A.; Lamb, K.


    The Winter 2016-2017 season in California was marked by substantial amounts of precipitation; this resulted in critically-low reservoirs filling up and the removal of most of California from drought status. The year prior was characterized by one of the strongest El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, though it did not produce nearly enough precipitation as the 2016-2017 season. The major contributors to the increased rainfall during the 2016-2017 season were climactic phenomenon known as atmospheric rivers (ARs), which transport water vapor through the atmosphere in narrow bands, and are known to produce extreme rain events. Determining the exact timing, landfall areas, and total precipitation amounts of ARs is currently of great interest; a recent study showed that extreme weather events are likely to increase in California in the coming years, which motivates research into how phenomenon such as ENSO and ARs play a role. Using long-term daily rain gauge data provided by the Los Angeles County Department of Public Works, we compute the precipitation volume and storm count for various locations in Los Angeles County and identify anomalies. These data will then be compared with the occurrence and intensity of AR and ENSO events by using NOAA's NOI and ESRL AR data. The results can be used to provide a better grasp of extreme climactic patterns and their effects on the amount of precipitation in the region.

  4. Characterization of extreme flood and drought events in Singapore and investigation of their relationships with ENSO (United States)

    Li, Xin; Babovic, Vladan


    Flood and drought are hydrologic extreme events that have significant impact on human and natural systems. Characterization of flood and drought in terms of their start, duration and strength, and investigation of the impact of natural climate variability (i.e., ENSO) and anthropogenic climate change on them can help decision makers to facilitate adaptions to mitigate potential enormous economic costs. To date, numerous studies in this area have been conducted, however, they are primarily focused on extra-tropical regions. Therefore, this study presented a detailed framework to characterize flood and drought events in a tropical urban city-state (i.e., Singapore), based on daily data from 26 precipitation stations. Flood and drought events are extracted from standardized precipitation anomalies from monthly to seasonal time scales. Frequency, duration and magnitude of flood and drought at all the stations are analyzed based on crossing theory. In addition, spatial variation of flood and drought characteristics in Singapore is investigated using ordinary kriging method. Lastly, the impact of ENSO condition on flood and drought characteristics is analyzed using regional regression method. The results show that Singapore can be prone to extreme flood and drought events at both monthly and seasonal time scales. ENSO has significant influence on flood and drought characteristics in Singapore, but mainly during the South West Monsoon season. During the El Niño phase, drought can become more extreme. The results have implications for water management practices in Singapore.

  5. Impact of atmospheric model resolution on simulation of ENSO feedback processes: a coupled model study (United States)

    Hua, Lijuan; Chen, Lin; Rong, Xinyao; Su, Jingzhi; Wang, Lu; Li, Tim; Yu, Yongqiang


    This study examines El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related air-sea feedback processes in a coupled general circulation model (CGCM) to gauge model errors and pin down their sources in ENSO simulation. Three horizontal resolutions of the atmospheric component (T42, T63 and T106) of the CGCM are used to investigate how the simulated ENSO behaviors are affected by the resolution. We find that air-sea feedback processes in the three experiments mainly differ in terms of both thermodynamic and dynamic feedbacks. We also find that these processes are simulated more reasonably in the highest resolution version than in the other two lower resolution versions. The difference in the thermodynamic feedback arises from the difference in the shortwave-radiation (SW) feedback. Due to the severely (mildly) excessive cold tongue in the lower (higher) resolution version, the SW feedback is severely (mildly) underestimated. The main difference in the dynamic feedback processes lies in the thermocline feedback and the zonal-advection feedback, both of which are caused by the difference in the anomalous thermocline response to anomalous zonal wind stress. The difference in representing the anomalous thermocline response is attributed to the difference in meridional structure of zonal wind stress anomaly in the three simulations, which is linked to meridional resolution.

  6. Future changes in rainfall associated with ENSO, IOD and changes in the mean state over Eastern Africa (United States)

    Endris, Hussen Seid; Lennard, Christopher; Hewitson, Bruce; Dosio, Alessandro; Nikulin, Grigory; Artan, Guleid A.


    This study examines the projected changes in the characteristics of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in terms of mean state, intensity and frequency, and associated rainfall anomalies over eastern Africa. Two regional climate models driven by the same four global climate models (GCMs) and the corresponding GCM simulations are used to investigate projected changes in teleconnection patterns and East African rainfall. The period 1976-2005 is taken as the reference for present climate and the far-future climate (2070-2099) under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) is analyzed for projected change. Analyses of projections based on GCMs indicate an El Niño-like (positive IOD-like) warming pattern over the tropical Pacific (Indian) Ocean. However, large uncertainties remain in the projected future changes in ENSO/IOD frequency and intensity with some GCMs show increase of ENSO/IOD frequency and intensity, and others a decrease or no/small change. Projected changes in mean rainfall over eastern Africa based on the GCM and RCM data indicate a decrease in rainfall over most parts of the region during JJAS and MAM seasons, and an increase in rainfall over equatorial and southern part of the region during OND, with the greatest changes in equatorial region. During ENSO and IOD years, important changes in the strength of the teleconnections are found. During JJAS, when ENSO is an important driver of rainfall variability over the region, both GCM and RCM projections show an enhanced La Niña-related rainfall anomaly compared to the present period. Although the long rains (MAM) have little association with ENSO in the reference period, both GCMs and RCMs project stronger ENSO teleconnections in the future. On the other hand, during the short rains (OND), a dipole future change in rainfall teleconnection associated with ENSO and IOD is found, with a stronger ENSO/IOD related rainfall anomaly over the eastern part of the domain

  7. Reconstructing the Paleo ENSO records from tropical and subtropical ice cores

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    acumula tanto en los glaciares polares como alpinos (alta elevación producen laminaciones que permiten un fechamiento preciso de estas secuencias estratigráficas. Este artículo examina la variabilidad climática interanual en los registros de los núcleos de hielo del Quelccaya (1 sobre los últimos 150 años, en que existe una cantidad limitada de datos documentales con los que se pueden evaluar los datos de los núcleos de hielo y (2 el registro más largo, que cubre los últimos 1,500 años, en que la evaluación independiente se torna más difícil. Los registros de precipitación del Quelccaya, derivados de los núcleos de hielo, se comparan con la historia temprana del hombre en Sudamérica. Existe evidencia arqueológica que, cuando se compara con el registro del balance neto del Quelccaya en los 1,500 años, sugiere que los períodos de florecimiento de culturas de altura aparecen durante períodos en que las montañas fueron más húmedas que el promedio, y que las culturas costeras florecieron cuando las montañas fueron más secas que lo normal. Estos datos sugieren que pueden existir nexos océano/atmósfera de más largo período que producen respuestas de precipitación «tipo El Niño» de largo plazo. Interannual variability in climate is a major feature of the climate system, particularly in subtropical and tropical regions. It is essential to know if the interannual variability signature in the climate record is affected by a change in the mean state of the climate system. This goal can be met only by analyzing long records of interannual climate variability throughout intervals in the past when climate was different from today (e.g., Little Ice Age, Medieval Warm, last glaciation. This task is especially important as man may be inadvertently altering the mean state of global climate. With the exception of the annual cycle, ENSO is the dominant global climate signal on time scales of a few months to a few years. It is associated with major

  8. Comparison of Forced ENSO-Like Hydrological Expressions in Simulations of the Preindustrial and Mid-Holocene (United States)

    Lewis, Sophie C.; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Kelley, Maxwell


    Using the water isotope- and vapor source distribution (VSD) tracer-enabled Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE-R, we examine changing El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like expressions in the hydrological cycle in a suite of model experiments. We apply strong surface temperature anomalies associated with composite observed El Nino and La Nina events as surface boundary conditions to preindustrial and mid-Holocene model experiments in order to investigate ENSO-like expressions in the hydrological cycle under varying boundary conditions. We find distinct simulated hydrological anomalies associated with El Nino-like ("ENSOWARM") and La Nina-like ("ENSOCOOL") conditions, and the region-specific VSD tracers show hydrological differences across the Pacific basin between El Nino-like and La Nina-like events. The application of ENSOCOOL forcings does not produce climatological anomalies that represent the equal but opposite impacts of the ENSOWARM experiment, as the isotopic anomalies associated with ENSOWARM conditions are generally stronger than with ENSOCOOL and the spatial patterns of change distinct. Also, when the same ENSO-like surface temperature anomalies are imposed on the mid-Holocene, the hydrological response is muted, relative to the preindustrial. Mid-Holocene changes in moisture sources to the analyzed regions across the Pacific reveal potentially complex relationships between ENSO-like conditions and boundary conditions. Given the complex impacts of ENSO-like conditions on various aspects of the hydrological cycle, we suggest that proxy record insights into paleo-ENSO variability are most likely to be robust when synthesized from a network of many spatially diverse archives, which can account for the potential nonstationarity of ENSO teleconnections under different boundary conditions.

  9. Improved ensemble-mean forecast skills of ENSO events by a zero-mean stochastic model-error model of an intermediate coupled model (United States)

    Zheng, F.; Zhu, J.


    To perform an ensemble-based ENSO probabilistic forecast, the crucial issue is to design a reliable ensemble prediction strategy that should include the major uncertainties of a forecast system. In this study, we developed a new general ensemble perturbation technique to improve the ensemble-mean predictive skill of forecasting ENSO using an intermediate coupled model (ICM). The model uncertainties are first estimated and analyzed from EnKF analysis results through assimilating observed SST. Then, based on the pre-analyzed properties of the model errors, a zero-mean stochastic model-error model is developed to mainly represent the model uncertainties induced by some important physical processes missed in the coupled model (i.e., stochastic atmospheric forcing/MJO, extra-tropical cooling and warming, Indian Ocean Dipole mode, etc.). Each member of an ensemble forecast is perturbed by the stochastic model-error model at each step during the 12-month forecast process, and the stochastical perturbations are added into the modeled physical fields to mimic the presence of these high-frequency stochastic noises and model biases and their effect on the predictability of the coupled system. The impacts of stochastic model-error perturbations on ENSO deterministic predictions are examined by performing two sets of 21-yr retrospective forecast experiments. The two forecast schemes are differentiated by whether they considered the model stochastic perturbations, with both initialized by the ensemble-mean analysis states from EnKF. The comparison results suggest that the stochastic model-error perturbations have significant and positive impacts on improving the ensemble-mean prediction skills during the entire 12-month forecast process. Because the nonlinear feature of the coupled model can induce the nonlinear growth of the added stochastic model errors with model integration, especially through the nonlinear heating mechanism with the vertical advection term of the model, the

  10. Monthly ENSO Forecast Skill and Lagged Ensemble Size (United States)

    Trenary, L.; DelSole, T.; Tippett, M. K.; Pegion, K.


    The mean square error (MSE) of a lagged ensemble of monthly forecasts of the Niño 3.4 index from the Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) is examined with respect to ensemble size and configuration. Although the real-time forecast is initialized 4 times per day, it is possible to infer the MSE for arbitrary initialization frequency and for burst ensembles by fitting error covariances to a parametric model and then extrapolating to arbitrary ensemble size and initialization frequency. Applying this method to real-time forecasts, we find that the MSE consistently reaches a minimum for a lagged ensemble size between one and eight days, when four initializations per day are included. This ensemble size is consistent with the 8-10 day lagged ensemble configuration used operationally. Interestingly, the skill of both ensemble configurations is close to the estimated skill of the infinite ensemble. The skill of the weighted, lagged, and burst ensembles are found to be comparable. Certain unphysical features of the estimated error growth were tracked down to problems with the climatology and data discontinuities.

  11. Eventos de tiempo severo inducidos por el ENSO en la temporada invernal cubana

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    Full Text Available ÉVÉNEMENTS MÉTÉOROLOGIQUES SÉVÈRES INDUITS PAR LES ENSO AU COURS DE LA PÉRIODE HIVERNALE À CUBA. La période hivernale à Cuba correspond généralement à la période sèche, au cours de laquelle, à l’inverse de ce qui se passe en été, on n’enregistre généralement pas de séquence pluviométrique sévère. Cependant, l’influence de l’ENSO peut activer des systèmes météorologiques de manière anormale pour des latitudes aussi basses. Il se produit alors relativement souvent des séquences météorologiques sévères de 24 à 48 heures de durée, avec l’avancée de lignes de grains, des pluies intenses, des tornades, de la grêle et des inondations dans les zones côtières. Ceci provoque des morts et de gros dégâts. Les climatologues reconnaissent l’ENSO comme la cause la plus importante de variabilité climatique inter-annuelle de la planète. Ils en décrivent et en prédisent les effets, comme les anomalies de précipitations ou de températures. Cependant on ne peut évaluer de manière plus précise ces conséquences qu’en étudiant les systèmes synoptiques induits par l’ENSO, qui sont responsables de ces excès. Cette étape est indispensable pour la mise en place d’un système d’alerte avancé requis par la Défense Civile. On montre, dans cet article, le rôle joué par le jet-stream subtropical, dans la formation de ces événements climatologiques sévères. Ainsi, l’étude des périodes hivernales affectées par un ENSO depuis 1957-58 jusqu’à 1996-97 a permis d’établir des situations types des niveaux de surface et supérieurs de l’atmosphère, associés à des événements sévères induits par l’ENSO. On présente aussi des exemples des conséquences des principaux événements. A l’aide de ces situations types, on a pu élaborer un système d’alerte avancée mis à la disposition de la Défense Civile et permettant d’effectuer des prévisions à 7 et à 10 jours. La temporada invernal cubana

  12. Interannual hydroclimatic variability and the 2009-2011 extreme ENSO phases in Colombia: from Andean glaciers to Caribbean lowlands (United States)

    Bedoya-Soto, Juan Mauricio; Poveda, Germán; Trenberth, Kevin E.; Vélez-Upegui, Jorge Julián


    During 2009-2011, Colombia experienced extreme hydroclimatic events associated with the extreme phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Here, we study the dynamics of diverse land-atmosphere phenomena involved in such anomalous events at continental, regional, and local scales. Standardized anomalies of precipitation, 2-m temperature, total column water (TCW), volumetric soil water (VSW), temperature at 925 hPa, surface sensible heat (SSH), latent heat (SLH), evaporation (EVP), and liquid water equivalent thickness (LWET) are analyzed to assess atmosphere-land controls and relationships over tropical South America (TropSA) during 1986-2013 (long term) and 2009-2011 (ENSO extreme phases). An assessment of the interannual covariability between precipitation and 2-m temperature is performed using singular value decomposition (SVD) to identify the dominant spatiotemporal modes of hydroclimatic variability over the region's largest river basins (Amazon, Orinoco, Tocantins, Magdalena-Cauca, and Essequibo). ENSO, its evolution in time, and strong and consistent spatial structures emerge as the dominant mode of variability. In situ anomalies during both extreme phases of ENSO 2009-2011 over the Magdalena-Cauca River basins are linked at the continental scale. The ENSO-driven hydroclimatic effects extend from the diurnal cycle to interannual timescales, as reflected in temperature data from tropical glaciers and the rain-snow boundary in the highest peaks of the Central Andes of Colombia to river levels along the Caribbean lowlands of the Magdalena-Cauca River basin.

  13. ENSO variability reflected in precipitation oxygen isotopes across the Asian Summer Monsoon region (United States)

    Cai, Zhongyin; Tian, Lide; Bowen, Gabriel J.


    Oxygen isotope signals (δ18O) from paleo-archives are important proxies for past Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) climate reconstruction. However, causes of interannual variation in the δ18O values of modern precipitation across the ASM region remain in argument. We report interannual δ18O variation in southern Tibetan Plateau precipitation based on long-term observations at Lhasa. These data, together with precipitation δ18O records from five Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) stations and two ice core δ18O records, were used to define a regional metric of ASM precipitation δ18O (ASMOI). Back-trajectory analyses for rainy season precipitation events indicate that moisture sources vary little between years with relatively high and low δ18O values, a result that is consistent for the south (Lhasa), southeast (Bangkok), and east ASM regions (Hong Kong). In contrast, δ18O values at these three locations are significantly correlated with convection in the estimated source regions and along transport paths. These results suggest that upstream convection, rather than moisture source change, causes interannual variation in ASM precipitation δ18O values. Contrasting values of the ASMOI in El Niño and La Niña years reveal a positive isotope-El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response (e.g., high values corresponding to warm phases), which we interpret as a response to changes in regional convection. We show that the isotope-ENSO response is amplified at high elevation sites and during La Niña years. These findings should improve interpretations of paleo-δ18O data as a proxy for past ASM variation and provide new opportunities to use data from this region to study paleo-ENSO activity.

  14. Precipitation and ice core isotopes from the Asian Summer Monsoon region reflect coherent ENSO variability (United States)

    Cai, Z.; Tian, L.; Bowen, G. J.


    Oxygen isotope signals (δ18O) from paleo-archives are important proxies for past Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) climate reconstruction. However, causes of interannual variation in the δ18O values of modern precipitation across the ASM region remain in argument. We report interannual δ18O variation in southern Tibetan Plateau precipitation based on long-term observations at Lhasa. These data, together with precipitation δ18O records from five Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) stations and two ice core δ18O records, were used to define a regional metric of ASM precipitation δ18O (ASMOI). Back-trajectory analyses for rainy season precipitation events indicate that moisture sources vary little between years with relatively high and low δ18O values, a result that is consistent for the south (Lhasa), southeast (Bangkok), and east ASM regions (Hong Kong). In contrast, δ18O values at these three locations are significantly correlated with convection in the estimated source regions and along transport paths. These results suggest that upstream convection, rather than moisture source change, causes interannual variation in ASM precipitation δ18O values. Contrasting values of the ASMOI in El Niño and La Niña years reveal a positive isotope-El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response (e.g., high values corresponding to warm phases), which we interpret as a response to changes in regional convection. We show that the isotope-ENSO response is amplified at high elevation sites and during La Niña years. These findings should improve interpretations of paleo-δ18O data as a proxy for past ASM variation and provide new opportunities to use data from this region to study paleo-ENSO activity.

  15. Massive bleaching of coral reefs induced by the 2010 ENSO, Puerto Cabello, Venezuela. (United States)

    del Mónaco, Carlos; Haiek, Gerard; Narciso, Samuel; Galindo, Miguel


    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has generated global coral massive bleaching. The aim of this work was to evaluate the massive bleaching of coral reefs in Puerto Cabello, Venezuela derived from ENSO 2010. We evaluated the bleaching of reefs at five localities both at three and five meter depth. The coral cover and densities of colonies were estimated. We recorded living coral cover, number and diameter of bleached and non-bleached colonies of each coral species. The colonies were classified according to the proportion of bleached area. Satellite images (Modis Scar) were analyzed for chlorophyll-a concentration and temperature in August, September, October and November from 2008-2010. Precipitation, wind speed and air temperature information was evaluated in meteorological data for 2009 and 2010. A total of 58.3% of colonies, belonging to 11 hexacoral species, were affected and the greatest responses were observed in Colpophyllia natans, Montastraea annularis and Montastraeafaveolata. The most affected localities were closer to the mainland and had a bleached proportion up to 62.73+/-36.55%, with the highest proportion of affected colonies, whereas the farthest locality showed 20.25+/-14.00% bleached and the smallest proportion. The salinity in situ varied between 30 and 33ppm and high levels of turbidity were observed. According to the satellite images, in 2010 the surface water temperature reached 31 degree C in August, September and October, and resulted higher than those registered in 2008 and 2009. Regionally, chlorophyll values were higher in 2010 than in 2008 and 2009. The meteorological data indicated that precipitation in November 2010 was three times higher than in November 2009. Massive coral bleaching occurred due to a three month period of high temperatures followed by one month of intense ENSO-associated precipitation. However, this latter factor was likely the trigger because of the bleaching gradient observed.

  16. Zonally resolved impact of ENSO on the stratospheric circulation and water vapor entry values (United States)

    Konopka, Paul; Ploeger, Felix; Tao, Mengchu; Riese, Martin


    Based on simulations with the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) for the period 1979-2013, with model transport driven by the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis, we discuss the impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the variability of the dynamics, water vapor, ozone, and mean age of air (AoA) in the tropical lower stratosphere during boreal winter. Our zonally resolved analysis at the 390 K potential temperature level reveals that not only (deseasonalized) ENSO-related temperature anomalies are confined to the tropical Pacific (180-300°E) but also anomalous wave propagation and breaking, as quantified in terms of the Eliassen-Palm (EP) flux divergence, with strongest local contribution during the La Niña phase. This anomaly is coherent with respective anomalies of water vapor (±0.5 ppmv) and ozone (±100 ppbv) derived from CLaMS being in excellent agreement with the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder observations. Thus, during El Niño a more zonally symmetric wave forcing drives a deep branch of the Brewer-Dobson (BD) circulation. During La Niña this forcing increases at lower levels (≈390 K) over the tropical Pacific, likely influencing the shallow branch of the BD circulation. In agreement with previous studies, wet (dry) and young (old) tape recorder anomalies propagate upward in the subsequent months following El Niño (La Niña). Using CLaMS, these anomalies are found to be around +0.3 (-0.2) ppmv and -4 (+4) months for water vapor and AoA, respectively. The AoA ENSO anomaly is more strongly affected by the residual circulation (≈2/3) than by eddy mixing (≈1/3).

  17. Tropospheric Column Ozone Response to ENSO in GEOS-5 Assimilation of OMI and MLS Ozone Data (United States)

    Olsen, Mark A.; Wargan, Krzysztof; Pawson, Steven


    We use GEOS-5 analyses of Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) ozone observations to investigate the magnitude and spatial distribution of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence on tropospheric column ozone (TCO) into the middle latitudes. This study provides the first explicit spatially resolved characterization of the ENSO influence and demonstrates coherent patterns and teleconnections impacting the TCO in the extratropics. The response is evaluated and characterized by both the variance explained and sensitivity of TCO to the Nino 3.4 index. The tropospheric response in the tropics agrees well with previous studies and verifies the analyses. A two-lobed response symmetric about the Equator in the western Pacific/Indonesian region seen in some prior studies and not in others is confirmed here. This two-lobed response is consistent with the large-scale vertical transport. We also find that the large-scale transport in the tropics dominates the response compared to the small-scale convective transport. The ozone response is weaker in the middle latitudes, but a significant explained variance of the TCO is found over several small regions, including the central United States. However, the sensitivity of TCO to the Nino 3.4 index is statistically significant over a large area of the middle latitudes. The sensitivity maxima and minima coincide with anomalous anti-cyclonic and cyclonic circulations where the associated vertical transport is consistent with the sign of the sensitivity. Also, ENSO related changes to the mean tropopause height can contribute significantly to the midlatitude response. Comparisons to a 22-year chemical transport model simulation demonstrate that these results from the 9- year assimilation are representative of the longer term. This investigation brings insight to several seemingly disparate prior studies of the El Nino influence on tropospheric ozone in the middle latitudes.

  18. Vegetation anomalies associated with the ENSO phenomenon in the Cauca river valley, Colombia

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    J. M. Valencia


    Full Text Available The main factors affecting the production and yield of sugarcane are variety, agronomic management, soil type and climate, of which the first three there is some control, while the climate is one factor of which you cannot have any control, therefore, it should be monitored. Colombia, being located in the equatorial pacific, is affected by two atmospheric oceanic phenomena known as “El Niño” and “La Niña”, which make up the climatic phenomenon of ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation and affect the quantity and the number of days with rainfall and influences the production of sugarcane. The objective of this work is to identify spatially and temporally the zones with greater and lower impact of the ENSO phenomenon in the cultivation of sugarcane in Colombia through the use of the Standard Vegetation Index (SVI and the Rainfall Anomally Index (RAI using EVI/MODIS images and precipitation data from meteorological stations on a quarterly basis for the period 2000-2015. A similar trend was found between both indices in the “El Niño” and “Neutral” seasons, while in the “La Niña” season the RAI tended to rise while the SVI decreased when the RAI was very high, this tendency being much more marked in areas with floods caused by the overflow of the main rivers. In addition, a comparison was made between the SVI index and a productivity anomaly index (IAP, finding a direct correlation between both (R2 = 0.4, p<0.001. This work showed that through the use of vegetation indexes, a temporal analysis of the impact of climate on an agricultural crop can be carried out, especially with ENSO conditions.

  19. Improvements of ENSO-monsoon relationship in CMIP5 models through statistical downscaling over India. (United States)

    Akhter, J.; Das, L.; Deb, A.


    Present study has assessed the skills of global climate models (GCMS) from coupled model inter-comparison project phase five (CMIP5) in simulating ENSO-monsoon relationships over seven homogeneous zones of India. Observational sea surface temperature (SST) data has revealed that there has been a significant negative correlation between zonal precipitation and Nino 3.4 index over North Mountainous India, North West India, North Central India, West Peninsular India and South Peninsular India. First and third principal component (PC) of zonal precipitation explaining 44.4% and 14.2% variance respectively has also shown significant anti-correlation with Nino 3.4. Analysis with CMIP5 models revealed that majority of GCMs have failed to reproduce both magnitude and phase of such relationships mainly due to poor simulation of Nino 3.4 index. Therefore, an attempt has been made to improve the results through empirical orthogonal function (EOF) based statistical downscaling of CMIP5 GCMs. To downscale Nino 3.4 index, an optimal predictor combination of PCs extracted from EOF fields of large scale GCM predictors like Geo-potential height, u and v wind, Specific and relative humidity and air temperature at pressure levels 500, 850 and 1000 hpa, mean sea level pressure and atmospheric vapor content has been utilized. Results indicated improvements of downscaled CMIP5 models in simulating ENSO-monsoon relationship for zone wise precipitation. Multi-model ensemble (MME) of downscaled GCMs has better skill than individuals GCM. Therefore, downscaled MME may be used more reliably to investigate future ENSO-monsoon relationship under various warming scenarios

  20. A study of Solar-Enso correlation with southern Brazil tree ring index (1955- 1991) (United States)

    Rigozo, N.; Nordemann, D.; Vieira, L.; Echer, E.

    The effects of solar activity and El Niño-Southern Oscillation on tree growth in Southern Brazil were studied by correlation analysis. Trees for this study were native Araucaria (Araucaria Angustifolia)from four locations in Rio Grande do Sul State, in Southern Brazil: Canela (29o18`S, 50o51`W, 790 m asl), Nova Petropolis (29o2`S, 51o10`W, 579 m asl), Sao Francisco de Paula (29o25`S, 50o24`W, 930 m asl) and Sao Martinho da Serra (29o30`S, 53o53`W, 484 m asl). From these four sites, an average tree ring Index for this region was derived, for the period 1955-1991. Linear correlations were made on annual and 10 year running averages of this tree ring Index, of sunspot number Rz and SOI. For annual averages, the correlation coefficients were low, and the multiple regression between tree ring and SOI and Rz indicates that 20% of the variance in tree rings was explained by solar activity and ENSO variability. However, when the 10 year running averages correlations were made, the coefficient correlations were much higher. A clear anticorrelation is observed between SOI and Index (r=-0.81) whereas Rz and Index show a positive correlation (r=0.67). The multiple regression of 10 year running averages indicates that 76% of the variance in tree ring INdex was explained by solar activity and ENSO. These results indicate that the effects of solar activity and ENSO on tree rings are better seen on long timescales.

  1. The Anticipation of the ENSO: What Resonantly Forced Baroclinic Waves Can Teach Us (Part II

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Louis Pinault


    Full Text Available The purpose of the paper is to take advantage of recent work on the study of resonantly forced baroclinic waves in the tropical Pacific to significantly reduce systematic and random forecasting errors resulting from the current statistical models intended to predict El Niño. Their major drawback is that sea surface temperature (SST, which is widely used, is very difficult to decipher because of the extreme complexity of exchanges at the ocean-atmosphere interface. In contrast, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO forecasting can be performed between 7 and 8 months in advance precisely and very simply from (1 the subsurface water temperature at particular locations and (2 the time lag of the events (their expected date of occurrence compared to a regular 4-year cycle. Discrimination of precursor signals from objective criteria prevents the anticipation of wrong events, as occurred in 2012 and 2014. The amplitude of the events, their date of appearance, as well as their potential impact on the involved regions are estimated. Three types of ENSO events characterize their climate impact according to whether they are (1 unlagged or weakly lagged, (2 strongly lagged, or (3 out of phase with the annual quasi-stationary wave (QSW (Central Pacific El Niño events. This substantial progress is based on the analysis of baroclinic QSWs in the tropical basin and the resulting genesis of ENSO events. As for cold events, the amplification of La Niña can be seen a few months before the maturation phase of an El Niño event, as occurred in 1998 and 2016.

  2. ENSO influence on the interannual variability of the Red Sea convergence zone and associated rainfall

    KAUST Repository

    Dasari, Hari Prasad


    The Red Sea convergence zone (RSCZ) is formed by opposite surface winds blowing from northwest to southeast directions at around 18°-19°N between October and January. A reverse-oriented, low-level monsoon trough at 850hPa, known as the Red Sea trough (RST), transfers moisture from the southern Red Sea to RSCZ. The positions of the RSCZ and RST and the intensity of the RST have been identified as important factors in modulating weather and climatic conditions across the Middle East. Here, we investigate the influence of the El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variability of RSCZ, RST, and regional rainfall during winter months. Our results indicate that El Niño (warm ENSO phase) favours a shift of the RSCZ to the north and a strengthening of the RST in the same direction. Conversely, during November and December of La Niña periods (cold ENSO phase), the RSCZ shift to the south and the RST strengthens in the same direction. During El Niño periods, southeasterly wind speeds increase (20-30%) over the southern Red Sea and northwesterly wind speeds decrease (10-15%) over the northern Red Sea. Noticeable increases in the number of rainy days and the intensity of rain events are observed during El Niño phases. These increases are associated with colder than normal air intrusion at lower levels from the north combined with warm air intrusion from the south over the RSCZ. Our analysis suggests that during El Niño winters, warmer sea surface temperatures and higher convective instability over the Red Sea favour local storms conditions and increase rainfall over the Red Sea and adjoining regions.

  3. An Ocean Biology-induced Negative Feedback on ENSO in the Tropical Pacific Climate System (United States)

    Zhang, R. H.


    Biological conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean (e.g., phytoplankton biomass) are strongly regulated by physical changes associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The existence and variation of phytoplankton biomass, in turn, act to modulate the vertical penetration of the incoming sunlight in the upper ocean, presenting an ocean biology-induced heating (OBH) effect on the climate system. Previously, a penetration depth of solar radiation in the upper ocean (Hp) is defined to describe the related bio-climate connections. Parameterized in terms of its relationship with the sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific, an empirical model for interannual Hp variability has been derived from remotely sensed ocean color data, which is incorporated into a hybrid coupled model (HCM) to represent OBH effects. In this paper, various HCM experiments are performed to demonstrate the bio-feedback onto ENSO, including a climatological Hp run (in which Hp is prescribed as seasonally varying only), interannual Hp runs (with different intensities of interannually varying OBH effects), and a run in which the sign of the OBH effect is artificially reversed. Significant modulating impacts on interannual variability are found in the HCM, characterized by a negative feedback between ocean biology and the climate system in the tropical Pacific: the stronger the OBH feedback, the weaker the interannual variability. Processes involved in the feedback are analyzed; it is illustrated that the SST is modulated indirectly by ocean dynamical processes induced by OBH. The significance and implication of the OBH effects are discussed for their roles in ENSO variability and model biases in the tropical Pacific.

  4. Significant influences of global mean temperature and ENSO on extreme rainfall over Southeast Asia (United States)

    Villafuerte, Marcelino, II; Matsumoto, Jun


    Along with the increasing concerns on the consequences of global warming, and the accumulating records of disaster related to heavy rainfall events in Southeast Asia, this study investigates whether a direct link can be detected between the rising global mean temperature, as well as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and extreme rainfall over the region. The maximum likelihood modeling that allows incorporating covariates on the location parameter of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is employed. The GEV model is fitted to annual and seasonal rainfall extremes, which were taken from a high-resolution gauge-based gridded daily precipitation data covering a span of 57 years (1951-2007). Nonstationarities in extreme rainfall are detected over the central parts of Indochina Peninsula, eastern coasts of central Vietnam, northwest of the Sumatra Island, inland portions of Borneo Island, and on the northeastern and southwestern coasts of the Philippines. These nonstationarities in extreme rainfall are directly linked to near-surface global mean temperature and ENSO. In particular, the study reveals that a kelvin increase in global mean temperature anomaly can lead to an increase of 30% to even greater than 45% in annual maximum 1-day rainfall, which were observed pronouncedly over central Vietnam, southern coast of Myanmar, northwestern sections of Thailand, northwestern tip of Sumatra, central portions of Malaysia, and the Visayas island in central Philippines. Furthermore, a pronounced ENSO influence manifested on the seasonal maximum 1-day rainfall; a northward progression of 10%-15% drier condition over Southeast Asia as the El Niño develops from summer to winter is revealed. It is important therefore, to consider the results obtained here for water resources management as well as for adaptation planning to minimize the potential adverse impact of global warming, particularly on extreme rainfall and its associated flood risk over the region

  5. Atmospheric QBO and ENSO indices with high vertical resolution from GNSS radio occultation temperature measurements (United States)

    Wilhelmsen, Hallgeir; Ladstädter, Florian; Scherllin-Pirscher, Barbara; Steiner, Andrea K.


    We provide atmospheric temperature variability indices for the tropical troposphere and stratosphere based on global navigation satellite system (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) temperature measurements. By exploiting the high vertical resolution and the uniform distribution of the GNSS RO temperature soundings we introduce two approaches, both based on an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The first method utilizes the whole vertical and horizontal RO temperature field from 30° S to 30° N and from 2 to 35 km altitude. The resulting indices, the leading principal components, resemble the well-known patterns of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropics. They provide some information on the vertical structure; however, they are not vertically resolved. The second method applies the EOF analysis on each altitude level separately and the resulting indices contain information on the horizontal variability at each densely available altitude level. They capture more variability than the indices from the first method and present a mixture of all variability modes contributing at the respective altitude level, including the QBO and ENSO. Compared to commonly used variability indices from QBO winds or ENSO sea surface temperature, these new indices cover the vertical details of the atmospheric variability. Using them as proxies for temperature variability is also of advantage because there is no further need to account for response time lags. Atmospheric variability indices as novel products from RO are expected to be of great benefit for studies on atmospheric dynamics and variability, for climate trend analysis, as well as for climate model evaluation.

  6. Tropospheric column ozone response to ENSO in GEOS-5 assimilation of OMI and MLS ozone data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Olsen


    Full Text Available We use GEOS-5 analyses of Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS ozone observations to investigate the magnitude and spatial distribution of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO influence on tropospheric column ozone (TCO into the middle latitudes. This study provides the first explicit spatially resolved characterization of the ENSO influence and demonstrates coherent patterns and teleconnections impacting the TCO in the extratropics. The response is evaluated and characterized by both the variance explained and sensitivity of TCO to the Niño 3.4 index. The tropospheric response in the tropics agrees well with previous studies and verifies the analyses. A two-lobed response symmetric about the Equator in the western Pacific/Indonesian region seen in some prior studies and not in others is confirmed here. This two-lobed response is consistent with the large-scale vertical transport. We also find that the large-scale transport in the tropics dominates the response compared to the small-scale convective transport. The ozone response is weaker in the middle latitudes, but a significant explained variance of the TCO is found over several small regions, including the central United States. However, the sensitivity of TCO to the Niño 3.4 index is statistically significant over a large area of the middle latitudes. The sensitivity maxima and minima coincide with anomalous anti-cyclonic and cyclonic circulations where the associated vertical transport is consistent with the sign of the sensitivity. Also, ENSO related changes to the mean tropopause height can contribute significantly to the midlatitude response. Comparisons to a 22-year chemical transport model simulation demonstrate that these results from the 9-year assimilation are representative of the longer term. This investigation brings insight to several seemingly disparate prior studies of the El Niño influence on tropospheric ozone in the middle latitudes.

  7. Sub-seasonal prediction of significant wave heights over the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans, part II: The impact of ENSO and MJO (United States)

    Shukla, Ravi P.; Kinter, James L.; Shin, Chul-Su


    This study evaluates the effect of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) events on 14-day mean significant wave height (SWH) at 3 weeks lead time (Wk34) over the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2). The WAVEWATCH-3 (WW3) model is forced with daily 10m-winds predicted by a modified version of CFSv2 that is initialized with multiple ocean analyses in both January and May for 1979-2008. A significant anomaly correlation of predicted and observed SWH anomalies (SWHA) at Wk34 lead-time is found over portions of the domain, including the central western Pacific, South China Sea (SCS), Bay of Bengal (BOB) and southern Indian Ocean (IO) in January cases, and over BOB, equatorial western Pacific, the Maritime Continent and southern IO in May cases. The model successfully predicts almost all the important features of the observed composite SWHA during El Niño events in January, including negative SWHA in the central IO where westerly wind anomalies act on an easterly mean state, and positive SWHA over the southern Ocean (SO) where westerly wind anomalies act on a westerly mean state. The model successfully predicts the sign and magnitude of SWHA at Wk34 lead-time in May over the BOB and SCS in composites of combined phases-2-3 and phases-6-7 of MJO. The observed leading mode of SWHA in May and the third mode of SWHA in January are influenced by the combined effects of ENSO and MJO. Based on spatial and temporal correlations, the spatial patterns of SWHA in the model at Wk34 in both January and May are in good agreement with the observations over the equatorial western Pacific, equatorial and southern IO, and SO.

  8. Reforecasting the 1972-73 ENSO Event and the Monsoon Drought Over India (United States)

    Shukla, J.; Huang, B.; Shin, C. S.


    This paper presents the results of reforcasting the 1972-73 ENSO event and the Indian summer monsoon drought using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), initialized with the Eu­ropean Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global ocean reanalysis version 4, and observation-based land and atmosphere reanalyses. The results of this paper demonstrate that if the modern day climate models were available during the 1970's, even with the limited observations at that time, it should have been possible to predict the 1972-73 ENSO event and the associated monsoon drought. These results further suggest the necessity of continuing to develop realistic models of the climate system for accurate and reliable seasonal predictions. This paper also presents a comparison of the 1972-73 El Niño reforecast with the 1997-98 case. As the strongest event during 1958-78, the 1972-73 El Niño is distinguished from the 1997-98 one by its early termination. Initialized in the spring season, the forecast system predicted the onset and development of both events reasonably well, although the reforecasts underestimate the ENSO peaking magnitudes. On the other hand, the reforecasts initialized in spring and fall of 1972 persistently predicted lingering wind and SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific during the spring of 1973. Initialized in fall of 1997, the reforecast also grossly overestimates the peaking westerly wind and warm SST anomalies in the 1997-98 El Niño.In 1972-73, both the Eastern Pacific SST anomalies (for example Nino 3 Index) and the summer monsoon drought over India and the adjoining areas were predicted remarkably well. In contrast, the Eastern Pacific SST anomalies for the 1997-98 event were predicted well, but the normal summer monsoon rainfall over India of 1997 was not predicted by the model. This case study of the 1972-73 event is part of a larger, comprehensive reforecast project

  9. Predictability of a Coupled Model of ENSO Using Singular Vector Analysis: Optimal Growth and Forecast Skill. (United States)

    Xue, Yan

    The optimal growth and its relationship with the forecast skill of the Zebiak and Cane model are studied using a simple statistical model best fit to the original nonlinear model and local linear tangent models about idealized climatic states (the mean background and ENSO cycles in a long model run), and the actual forecast states, including two sets of runs using two different initialization procedures. The seasonally varying Markov model best fit to a suite of 3-year forecasts in a reduced EOF space (18 EOFs) fits the original nonlinear model reasonably well and has comparable or better forecast skill. The initial error growth in a linear evolution operator A is governed by the eigenvalues of A^{T}A, and the square roots of eigenvalues and eigenvectors of A^{T}A are named singular values and singular vectors. One dominant growing singular vector is found, and the optimal 6 month growth rate is largest for a (boreal) spring start and smallest for a fall start. Most of the variation in the optimal growth rate of the two forecasts is seasonal, attributable to the seasonal variations in the mean background, except that in the cold events it is substantially suppressed. It is found that the mean background (zero anomaly) is the most unstable state, and the "forecast IC states" are more unstable than the "coupled model states". One dominant growing singular vector is found, characterized by north-south and east -west dipoles, convergent winds on the equator in the eastern Pacific and a deepened thermocline in the whole equatorial belt. This singular vector is insensitive to initial time and optimization time, but its final pattern is a strong function of initial states. The ENSO system is inherently unpredictable for the dominant singular vector can amplify 5-fold to 24-fold in 6 months and evolve into the large scales characteristic of ENSO. However, the inherent ENSO predictability is only a secondary factor, while the mismatches between the model and data is a

  10. Precipitation response to the current ENSO variability in a warming world (United States)

    Bonfils, C.; Santer, B. D.; Phillips, T. J.; Marvel, K.; Leung, L.


    The major triggers of past and recent droughts include large modes of variability, such as ENSO, as well as specific and persistent patterns of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs; Hoerling and Kumar, 2003, Shin et al. 2010, Schubert et al. 2009). However, alternative drought initiators are also anticipated in response to increasing greenhouse gases, potentially changing the relative contribution of ocean variability as drought initiator. They include the intensification of the current zonal wet-dry patterns (the thermodynamic mechanism, Held and Soden, 2006), a latitudinal redistribution of global precipitation (the dynamical mechanism, Seager et al. 2007, Seidel et al. 2008, Scheff and Frierson 2008) and a reduction of local soil moisture and precipitation recycling (the land-atmosphere argument). Our ultimate goal is to investigate whether the relative contribution of those mechanisms change over time in response to global warming. In this study, we first perform an EOF analysis of the 1900-1999 time series of observed global SST field and identify a simple ENSO-like (ENSOL) mode of SST variability. We show that this mode is well spatially and temporally correlated with observed worldwide regional precipitation and drought variability. We then develop concise metrics to examine the fidelity with which the CMIP5 coupled global climate models (CGCMs) capture this particular ENSO-like mode in the current climate, and their ability to replicate the observed teleconnections with precipitation. Based on the CMIP5 model projections of future climate change, we finally analyze the potential temporal variations in ENSOL to be anticipated under further global warming, as well as their associated teleconnections with precipitation (pattern, amplitude, and total response). Overall, our approach allows us to determine what will be the effect of the current ENSO-like variability (i.e., as measured with instrumental observations) on precipitation in a warming world. This

  11. Remote ENSO forcing versus local air-sea interaction in QTCM: a sensitivity study to intraseasonal variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Gushchina


    Full Text Available The skill of a newly designed global atmospheric model of intermediate complexity - QTCM (for quasi-equilibrium tropical circulation model in simulating the teleconnections is investigated. The role of the ENSO remote forcing over the Pacific surrounding regions is emphasized from sensitivity experiments to critical parameters of the model. The role of the tropical intraseasonal variability (ITV on the simulated ENSO teleconnection pattern is estimated using the methodology proposed by Lin et al. (2000 allowing to damp the energy of ITV in the model. The reduction of intraseasonal variability allows emphasizing the forced response of the atmosphere and eases the detection of local coupled atmosphere-ocean patterns. It was shown that the simulated ITV has an impact on the ENSO teleconnection pattern both in the mid-latitudes and in regions of ascending and descending branches of Walker circulation cells in the tropics.

  12. Role of the upper ocean structure in the response of ENSO-like SST variability to global warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yeh, Sang-Wook [Hanyang University, Department of Environmental Marine Science, Ansan (Korea); Dewitte, Boris [Laboratoire d' Etude en Geophysique et Oceanographie Spatiale, Toulouse (France); Yim, Bo Young; Noh, Yign [Yonsei University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Global Environmental Laboratory, Seoul (Korea)


    The response of El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like variability to global warming varies comparatively between the two different climate system models, i.e., the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs). Here, we examine the role of the simulated upper ocean temperature structure in the different sensitivities of the simulated ENSO variability in the models based on the different level of CO{sub 2} concentrations. In the MRI model, the sea surface temperature (SST) undergoes a rather drastic modification, namely a tendency toward a permanent El Nino-like state. This is associated with an enhanced stratification which results in greater ENSO amplitude for the MRI model. On the other hand, the ENSO simulated by GFDL model is hardly modified although the mean temperature in the near surface layer increases. In order to understand the associated mechanisms we carry out a vertical mode decomposition of the mean equatorial stratification and a simplified heat balance analysis using an intermediate tropical Pacific model tuned from the CGCM outputs. It is found that in the MRI model the increased stratification is associated with an enhancement of the zonal advective feedback and the non-linear advection. In the GFDL model, on the other hand, the thermocline variability and associated anomalous vertical advection are reduced in the eastern equatorial Pacific under global warming, which erodes the thermocline feedback and explains why the ENSO amplitude is reduced in a warmer climate in this model. It is suggested that change in stratification associated with global warming impacts the equatorial wave dynamics in a way that enhances the second baroclinic mode over the gravest one, which leads to the change in feedback processes in the CGCMs. Our results illustrate that the upper ocean vertical structure simulated in the CGCMs is a key parameter of the sensitivity of ENSO

  13. Relationship between annual precipitation variability and ENSO in Southern California for the Common Era (last 2,000 years) (United States)

    DU, X.; Hendy, I. L.; Hinnov, L.; Brown, E. T.; Schimmelmann, A.; Pak, D. K.


    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a major influence on Southern California's hydroclimate as demonstrated by both historical observations and model simulations. Santa Barbara Basin (SBB) off Southern California preserves a unique varved (i.e. annually laminated) marine sedimentary archive of modern and Holocene hydroclimate variability, notably including the transition from the regionally dry Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) to the wetter Little Ice Age (LIA). Here we present sub-annually resolved scanning XRF elemental counts for the last 2,000 years in SBB from core SPR0901-03KC. Titanium (associated with silicate minerals) is delivered more efficiently to SBB sediments during times of enhanced river flow and in the Mediterranean climate of Southern California, river flow only occurs after precipitation. The Ti record suggests that the precipitation frequency was reduced during the MCA except for a pluvial episode at CE 1075-1121, but increased during the LIA. Time series analysis of Ti counts indicates ENSO variability robustly increased during the intervals CE 450-520, 650-720, 980-1150, 1380-1550 and 1720-1750, and experienced relatively quiescent intervals between CE 50-150, 250-400, 550-650, 750-950, 1150-1280 and 1580-1620. Generally the LIA in Southern California is characterized by more active ENSO variability with long periodicities (4-7 yr) and multi-decadal variability (54 yr). MCA drought episodes were associated with less active ENSO. Active ENSO variability in Southern California during the last 2,000 years coincided with reconstructed southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) suggesting the ITCZ may play a role in the waxing and waning of ENSO teleconnections between the central Pacific and the west coast of North America.

  14. Spatiotemporal Variance of Global Horizontal Moisture Transport and the Influence of Strong ENSO Events Using ERA-Interim Reanalysis (United States)

    Kutta, E. J.; Hubbart, J. A.; Svoma, B. M.; Eichler, T. P.; Lupo, A. R.


    El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is well documented as a leading source of seasonal to inter-annual variations in global weather and climate. Strong ENSO events have been shown to alter the location and magnitude of Hadley and Walker circulations that maintain equilibrium at tropical latitudes and regulate moisture transport into mid-latitude storm tracks. Broad impacts associated with ENSO events include anomalous regional precipitation (ARP) and temperature patterns and subsequent impacts to socioeconomic and human health systems. Potential socioeconomic and human health impacts range from regional changes in water resources and agricultural productivity to local storm water management, particularly in rapidly urbanizing watersheds. Evidence is mounting to suggest that anthropogenic climate change will increase the frequency of heavy precipitation events, which compounds impacts of ARP patterns associated with strong El Nino events. Therefore, the need exists to identify common regional patterns of spatiotemporal variance of horizontal moisture flux (HMF) during months (Oct-Feb) associated with the peak intensity (Oceanic Nino Index [ONI]) of the three strongest El Nino (ONI > µ + 2σ) and La Nina (ONI hourly resolution before taking the density weighted vertical average. Long term means (LTM; 1979-2015) were quantified and the influence of strong ENSO events was assessed by quantifying deviations from the LTM for each respective covariance property during months associated with the selected ENSO events. Results reveal regions of statistically significant (CI = 0.05) differences from the LTM for the vertically integrated HMF and each covariance quantity. Broader implications of this work include potential for improved seasonal precipitation forecasts at regional scales and subsequent improvements to local water resource management. There is potential for future work objectively comparing these results with output from Earth System Models to improve

  15. Impacts of the Tropical Pacific Cold Tongue Mode on ENSO Diversity Under Global Warming (United States)

    Li, Yang; Li, Jianping; Zhang, Wenjun; Chen, Quanliang; Feng, Juan; Zheng, Fei; Wang, Wei; Zhou, Xin


    The causes of ENSO diversity, although being of great interest in recent research, do not have a consistent explanation. This study provides a possible mechanism focused on the background change of the tropical Pacific as a response to global warming. The second empirical orthogonal function mode of the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the tropical Pacific, namely the cold tongue mode (CTM), represents the background change of the tropical Pacific under global warming. Using composite analysis with surface observations and subsurface ocean assimilation data sets, we find ENSO spatial structure diversity is closely associated with the CTM. A positive CTM tends to cool the SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific and warm the SST outside, as well as widen (narrow) zonal and meridional scales for El Niño (La Niña), and vice versa. Particularly in the positive CTM phase, the air-sea action center of El Niño moves west, resembling the spatial pattern of CP-El Niño. This westward shift of center is related to the weakened Bjerknes feedback (BF) intensity by the CTM. By suppressing the SSTA growth of El Niño in the eastern equatorial Pacific, the CTM contributes to more frequent occurrence of CP-El Niño under global warming.

  16. Aspects of extratropical synoptic-scale processes in opposing ENSO phases (United States)

    Schwierz, C.; Wernli, H.; Hess, D.


    Energy and momentum provided by anomalous tropical heating/cooling affect the circulation on the global scale. Pacific Sea surface temperature anomalies strongly force local conditions in the equatorial Pacific, but are also known to change the climate in the extratropics, particularly over the American continent. The impact on more remote areas such as the Atlantic-European region is less clear. There the observed effects in both analyses and model studies show dependence on the resolution of the model/data, as well as on the time scales under consideration (Merkel and Latif, 2002; Compo et al., 2001). Most of the previous studies focus on larger-scale processes and seasonal time scales (or longer). Here we concentrate on the impact of opposing ENSO phases on extratropical synoptic-scale dynamics. The investigation is undertaken for the Niño/Niña events of 1972/3 and 1973/4 respectively, for 5 winter months (NDJFM) using ECMWF ERA40 data with 1o× 1o horizontal resolution and 60 vertical levels. The examination of the resulting differences in terms of standard dynamical fields (temperature, sea level pressure, precipitation, geopotential) is complemented with additional diagnostic fields (e.g. potential vorticity (PV), anti-/cyclone tracks and frequencies, PV streamers/cut-offs, blocking) in an attempt to gain more insight into aspects of extratropical synoptic-scale dynamical processes associated with ENSO SST anomalies.

  17. Investigation of hydrological variability in the Korean Peninsula with the ENSO teleconnections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Yoon


    Full Text Available This study analyzes nonlinear behavior links with atmospheric teleconnections between hydrologic variables and climate indices using statistical models during warm season (June to September over the Korean Peninsula (KP. The ocean-related major climate factor, which is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO was used to analyze the atmospheric teleconnections by principal component analysis (PCA and a singular spectrum analysis (SSA. The nonlinear lag time correlations between climate indices and hydrologic variables are calculated by Mutual Information (MI technique. The nonlinear correlation coefficients (CCs by MI were higher than linear CCs, and ENSO shows a few months of lag time correlation. The warm season hydrologic variables in KP shows a significant increasing tendency during the warm pool (WP, and the cold tongue (CT El Niño decaying years shows a significant decreasing tendency, while the La Niña year shows slightly above normal conditions, respectively. A better understanding of the relationship between climate indices and streamflow, and their local impacts can help to prepare for the river discharge management by water managers and scientists. Furthermore, these results provide useful data for policy makers and end-users to support long-range water resources prediction and water-related policy.

  18. Interdecadal modulation of the relationship between ENSO, IPO and precipitation: insights from tree rings in Australia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heinrich, Ingo [School of Resources, Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT (Australia); Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Climate Dynamics and Landscape Evolution, Potsdam (Germany); Weidner, Kathrin [Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Climate Dynamics and Landscape Evolution, Potsdam (Germany); Forschungszentrum Juelich GmbH, Institute for Chemistry and Dynamics of the Geosphere, Juelich (Germany); Helle, Gerhard [Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Climate Dynamics and Landscape Evolution, Potsdam (Germany); Vos, Heinz [Forschungszentrum Juelich GmbH, Institute for Chemistry and Dynamics of the Geosphere, Juelich (Germany); Lindesay, Janette; Banks, John C.G. [School of Resources, Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT (Australia)


    Australian climate-proxy reconstructions based on tree rings from tropical and subtropical forests have not been achieved so far due to the rarity of species producing anatomically distinct annual growth rings. Our study identifies the Australian Red Cedar (Toona ciliata) as one of the most promising tree species for tree-ring research in Australasia because this species exhibits distinct annual tree rings, a prerequisite for high quality tropical dendroclimatology. Based on these preliminary studies, we were able, for the first time in subtropical and tropical Australia, to develop a statistically robust, precisely dated and annually resolved chronology back to AD1854. We show that the variability in ring widths of T. ciliata is mainly dependent on annual precipitation. The developed proxy data series contains both high- and low-frequency climate signals which can be associated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). A comparison of different data sets (Brisbane precipitation, tree rings, coral luminescence record from the Great Barrier Reef, ENSO and IPO) revealed non-stationary correlation patterns throughout the twentieth century but little instability between the new tree-ring chronology and Brisbane precipitation. (orig.)

  19. Impacts of winter NPO on subsequent winter ENSO: sensitivity to the definition of NPO index (United States)

    Chen, Shangfeng; Wu, Renguang


    This study investigates the linkage between boreal winter North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and subsequent winter El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) based on seven different NPO indices. Results show that the influence of winter NPO on the subsequent winter El Niño is sensitive to how the NPO is defined. A significant NPO-El Niño connection is obtained when the NPO-related anomalous cyclone over the subtropical North Pacific extends to near-equatorial regions. The anomalous cyclone induces warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies through modulating surface heat fluxes. These warm SST anomalies are able to maintain into the following spring and summer through an air-sea coupled process and in turn induce significant westerly wind anomalies over the tropical western Pacific. In contrast, the NPO-El Niño relationship is unclear when the NPO-related anomalous cyclone over the subtropical North Pacific is confined to off-equatorial regions and cannot induce significant warm SST anomalies over the subtropical North Pacific. The present study suggests that definitions of NPO should be taken into account when using NPO to predict ENSO. In particular, we recommend defining the NPO index based on the empirical orthogonal function technique over appropriate region that does not extend too far north.

  20. A New Technique to Observe ENSO Activity via Ground-Based GPS Receivers (United States)

    Suparta, Wayan; Iskandar, Ahmad; Singh, Mandeep Singh Jit

    In an attempt to study the effects of global climate change in the tropics for improving global climate model, this paper aims to detect the ENSO events, especially El Nino phase by using ground-based GPS receivers. Precipitable water vapor (PWV) obtained from the Global Positioning System (GPS) Meteorology measurements in line with the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTa) are used to connect their response to El Niño activity. The data gathered from four selected stations over the Southeast Asia, namely PIMO (Philippines), KUAL (Malaysia), NTUS (Singapore) and BAKO (Indonesia) for the year of 2009/2010 were processed. A strong correlation was observed for PIMO station with a correlation coefficient of -0.90, significantly at the 99 % confidence level. In general, the relationship between GPS PWV and SSTa at all stations on a weekly basis showed with a negative correlation. The negative correlation indicates that during the El Niño event, the PWV variation was in decreased trend. Decreased trend of PWV value is caused by a dry season that affected the GPS signals in the ocean-atmospheric coupling. Based on these promising results, we can propose that the ground-based GPS receiver is capable used to monitor ENSO activity and this is a new prospective method that previously unexplored.

  1. On the unstable ENSO-Western North Pacific Monsoon relation during the 20th Century (United States)

    Vega Martín, Inmaculada; Gallego Puyol, David; Ribera Rodriguez, Pedro; Gómez Delgado, Francisco de Paula; Peña-Ortiz, Cristina


    The concept of the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon (WNPSM) appeared for the first time in 1987. Unlike the Indian Summer Monsoon and the East Asian summer monsoon, the WNPSM is an oceanic monsoon driven essentially by the meridional gradient of sea surface temperature. Its circulation is characterized by a northwest-southeast oriented monsoon trough with intense precipitation and low-level southwesterlies and upper-tropospheric easterlies in the region [100°-130° E, 5°-15°N]. Although this monsoon is mainly oceanic, it modulates the precipitation of densely populated areas such as the Philippines. To date, the WNPSM has been quantified by the so-called Western North Pacific Monsoon Index (WNPMI), an index based on wind anomalies over large domains of the Western Pacific. The requirement of continuous observed wind over remote oceanic areas to compute the WNPMI has limited its availability to the 1949-2014 period. In this work we have extended the index by almost 100 years by using historical observations of wind direction taken aboard ships. Our Western North Pacific Directional Index (WNPDI), is defined as the sum of the persistence of the low-level westerly winds in [5°-15°N, 100°-130°E] and easterly winds in [20°-30°N, 110°-140°E]. The new WNPDI index is highly correlated to the existent WNPMI for the concurrent period (1948-2014). (r=+0.88, p<0.01), indicating that the new approach based in the use of wind direction alone (a variable that can be considered instrumental even before the 20th Century), captures most of the monsoonal signal. Previous studies found that, during the second part of the 20th Century the WNPSM exhibited two basic characteristics: first a large interannual variability and second, a significant relation between the WNPSM and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a way in which a strong (weak) WNPSM tends to occur during the El Niño (La Niña) developing year or/and La Niña (El Niño) decaying year. The analysis of

  2. Análise da demanda por defensivos pela fruticultura brasileira 1997-2000 Fruit tree demand for chemicals 1997-2000

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evaristo Marzabal Neves


    Full Text Available Este estudo estima a demanda relativa por defensivos pela fruticultura brasileira, principalmente para banana, laranja, maçã, melão e uva, por dispêndio total e volume de princípio ativo por hectare, para o período de 1997 a 2000. Efetua, também, uma análise comparativa destas demandas com as obtidas para as principais culturas brasileiras (soja, milho, cana-de-açúcar e café, as quais são predominantes em termos de área cultivada e dominantes, em termos absolutos, nos dispêndios totais e volumes demandados por princípio ativo em defensivos no Brasil. Determina, ainda, em termos absolutos, a participação da fruticultura nos dispêndios totais e no consumo de princípio ativo, especialmente em acaricidas e fungicidas. Conclui sobre a importância da estimativa da demanda relativa para a fruticultura, que supera significativamente as principais culturas comerciais do País, fornecendo indicadores para o comportamento de mercado para as diferentes classes de defensivos pela fruticultura brasileira.This study estimates for the Brazilian fruit trees, mainly banana, orange, apple, melon and grape, the relative demand for chemicals, considering total expenses and quantity demanded for active principle per hectare, from 1997 to 2000. It is also established a comparative analysis among this demand with ones made by the main Brazilian crops (soybean, maize, sugar cane and coffee, that are predominating in terms of grown area and dominating, in absolute terms, of chemicals total expenses and consume of active principle volume in Brazil. Yet, determines, in absolute terms, the importance of fruit trees in chemicals total expenses and active principle consume, especially acaricides and fungicides. It concludes, about the importance of estimated relative demand for fruit trees, that it is higher than the ones by the mainly commercial crops in the country, offering indicators for the demand and market behavior to chemicals different classes by the Brazilian fruit trees.

  3. Possible influence of the ENSO phenomenon on the pathoecology of diphyllobothriasis and anisakiasis in ancient Chinchorro populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernardo T Arriaza


    Full Text Available Current clinical data show a clear relationship between the zoonosis rates of Diphyllobothrium pacificum and Anisakis caused by the El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO phenomenon along the Chilean coast. These parasites are endemic to the region and have a specific habitat distribution. D. pacificum prefers the warmer waters in the northern coast, while Anisakis prefers the colder waters of Southern Chile. The ENSO phenomenon causes a drastic inversion in the seawater temperatures in this region, modifying both the cool nutrient-rich seawater and the local ecology. This causes a latitudinal shift in marine parasite distribution and prevalence, as well as drastic environmental changes. The abundance of human mummies and archaeological coastal sites in the Atacama Desert provides an excellent model to test the ENSO impact on antiquity. We review the clinical and archaeological literature debating to what extent these parasites affected the health of the Chinchorros, the earliest settlers of this region. We hypothesise the Chinchorro and their descendants were affected by this natural and cyclical ENSO phenomenon and should therefore present fluctuating rates of D. pacificum and Anisakis infestations.

  4. Impacts of forest to urban land conversion and ENSO phase on water quality of a public water supply reservoir (United States)

    We used coupled watershed and reservoir models to evaluate the impacts of deforestation and ENSO phase on drinking water quality. Source water total organic carbon (TOC) is especially important due to the potential for production of carcinogenic disinfection byproducts (DBPs). The Environmental Flui...

  5. Perspective on the northwestward shift of autumn tropical cyclogenesis locations over the western North Pacific from shifting ENSO (United States)

    Hu, Chundi; Zhang, Chengyang; Yang, Song; Chen, Dake; He, Shengping


    During the recent decades of satellite era, more tropical cyclogenesis locations (TCLs) were observed over the northwestern part of the western North Pacific (WNP), relative to the southeastern part, during the boreal autumn. This increase in TCLs over the northwestern WNP is largely attributed to the synergy of shifting El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the 1998 Pacific climate regime shift. Both central Pacific (CP) La Niña and CP El Niño have occurred more frequently since 1998, with only one eastern Pacific El Niño observed in autumn 2015. The change in the mean longitude of TCLs is closely linked to the ENSO diversity, whereas the change in the mean latitude is dominated by the warming of the WNP induced by an interdecadal tendency of CP La Niña-like events. The physical mechanisms responsible for this shifting ENSO-TCL linkage can be potentially explained by the tacit-and-mutual configurations between tropical upper-tropospheric trough and monsoon trough, on both interannual and interdecadal timescales, which is mainly due to the ENSO-related large-scale environment changes in ocean and atmosphere that modulate the WNP TCL.

  6. Combined effect of MJO, ENSO and IOD on the intraseasonal variability of northeast monsoon rainfall over south peninsular India (United States)

    Sreekala, P. P.; Rao, S. Vijaya Bhaskara; Rajeevan, K.; Arunachalam, M. S.


    The present study has examined the combined effect of MJO, ENSO and IOD on the intraseasonal and interannual variability of northeast monsoon rainfall over south peninsular India. The study has revealed that the intraseasonal variation of daily rainfall over south peninsular India during NEM season is associated with various phases of eastward propagating MJO life cycle. Positive rainfall anomaly over south peninsular India and surrounding Indian Ocean (IO) is observed during the strong MJO phases 2, 3 and 4; and negative rainfall anomaly during the strong MJO phases 5,6,7,8 and 1. Above normal (below normal) convection over south peninsular India and suppressed convection over east Indian and West Pacific Ocean, high pressure (low pressure) anomaly over West Pacific Ocean, Positive (negative) SST anomalies over equatorial East and Central Pacific Ocean and easterly wind anomaly (westerly anomaly) over equatorial Indian Ocean are the observed features during the first three MJO (5, 6, 7) phases and all these features are observed in the excess (drought) NEMR composite. This suggests that a similar mode of physical mechanism is responsible for the intraseasonal and interannual variability of northeast monsoon rainfall. The number of days during the first three phases (last four phases) of MJO, where the enhanced convection and positive rainfall anomaly is over Indian Ocean (East Indian ocean and West Pacific Ocean), is more (less) during El Nino and IOD years and less during La Nina and NIOD years and vice versa. The observed excess (deficit) rainfall anomaly over west IO and south peninsular India and deficit (excess) rainfall anomaly over east IO including Bay of Bengal and West Pacific Ocean suggest that the more (less) number of first three phases during El Nino and IOD (La Nina and Negative IOD) is due to the interaction between eastward moving MJO and strong easterlies over equatorial IO present during El Nino and IOD years. This interaction would inhibit the

  7. Southern Hemisphere Extratropical Cyclones and their Relationship with ENSO in springtime (United States)

    Reboita, M. S.; Ambrizzi, T.; Da Rocha, R.


    Extratropical cyclones occurrence is associated with the teleconnection mechanisms that produce climate variability. Among these mechanisms we have El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Some works have indicated that during the ENSO positive phase there are more cyclogenetic conditions in some parts of the globe as the southwest of South Atlantic Ocean. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to verify if the extratropical cyclones number and location are altered in the different ENSO phases in the austral spring over the Southern Hemisphere (SH). The Melbourne University automatic tracking scheme was used to determine the cyclone climatology from 1980 to 2012. All cyclones that appear with lifetime higher or equal to 24 hours in the sea level pressure data from National Centers for Environment Prediction reanalysis I were included in the climatology. El Niño (EN), La Niña (LN) and Neutral (N) years were identified through the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) from Climate Prediction Center/NOAA. The average number of cyclones in the spring over the SH is similar in the EN (200), N (184) and LN (197) episodes. By latitude bands, during EN episodes the cyclones occurrence reduces in 16% between 70-60 degrees and increases in ~15% between 80-70 and 50-40 degrees. On the other hand, during the LN episodes, the cyclones are 17% more frequent in 50-60 degrees and 22% less frequent in 30-20 degrees. One more detailed analysis of the cyclones trajectory density (that is a statistic product of the tracking algorithm) shows that in the South Atlantic Ocean, near the southeast of South America, the number of cyclones in EN years is higher than in the neutral period and lower than in the LN years. In the Indian Ocean, the EN year is characterized by a cyclones reduction in the west and east sector, near the continents. In the Pacific Ocean, the region southward the New Zealand presents more cyclones occurrence in EN years.

  8. A real-time ocean reanalyses intercomparison project in the context of tropical pacific observing system and ENSO monitoring (United States)

    Xue, Yan; Wen, C.; Kumar, A.; Balmaseda, M.; Fujii, Y.; Alves, O.; Martin, M.; Yang, X.; Vernieres, G.; Desportes, C.; Lee, T.; Ascione, I.; Gudgel, R.; Ishikawa, I.


    An ensemble of nine operational ocean reanalyses (ORAs) is now routinely collected, and is used to monitor the consistency across the tropical Pacific temperature analyses in real-time in support of ENSO monitoring, diagnostics, and prediction. The ensemble approach allows a more reliable estimate of the signal as well as an estimation of the noise among analyses. The real-time estimation of signal-to-noise ratio assists the prediction of ENSO. The ensemble approach also enables us to estimate the impact of the Tropical Pacific Observing System (TPOS) on the estimation of ENSO-related oceanic indicators. The ensemble mean is shown to have a better accuracy than individual ORAs, suggesting the ensemble approach is an effective tool to reduce uncertainties in temperature analysis for ENSO. The ensemble spread, as a measure of uncertainties in ORAs, is shown to be partially linked to the data counts of in situ observations. Despite the constraints by TPOS data, uncertainties in ORAs are still large in the northwestern tropical Pacific, in the SPCZ region, as well as in the central and northeastern tropical Pacific. The uncertainties in total temperature reduced significantly in 2015 due to the recovery of the TAO/TRITON array to approach the value before the TAO crisis in 2012. However, the uncertainties in anomalous temperature remained much higher than the pre-2012 value, probably due to uncertainties in the reference climatology. This highlights the importance of the long-term stability of the observing system for anomaly monitoring. The current data assimilation systems tend to constrain the solution very locally near the buoy sites, potentially damaging the larger-scale dynamical consistency. So there is an urgent need to improve data assimilation systems so that they can optimize the observation information from TPOS and contribute to improved ENSO prediction.

  9. The Defining Characteristics of ENSO Extremes and the Strong 2015/2016 El Niño (United States)

    Santoso, Agus; Mcphaden, Michael J.; Cai, Wenju


    The year 2015 was special for climate scientists, particularly for the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) research community, as a major El Niño finally materialized after a long pause since the 1997/1998 extreme El Niño. It was scientifically exciting since, due to the short observational record, our knowledge of an extreme El Niño has been based only on the 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 events. The 2015/2016 El Niño was marked by many environmental disasters that are consistent with what is expected for an extreme El Niño. Considering the dramatic impacts of extreme El Niño, and the risk of a potential increase in frequency of ENSO extremes under greenhouse warming, it is timely to evaluate how the recent event fits into our understanding of ENSO extremes. Here we provide a review of ENSO, its nature and dynamics, and through analysis of various observed key variables, we outline the processes that characterize its extremes. The 2015/2016 El Niño brings a useful perspective into the state of understanding of these events and highlights areas for future research. While the 2015/2016 El Niño is characteristically distinct from the 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 events, it still can be considered as the first extreme El Niño of the 21st century. Its extremity can be attributed in part to unusually warm condition in 2014 and to long-term background warming. In effect, this study provides a list of physically meaningful indices that are straightforward to compute for identifying and tracking extreme ENSO events in observations and climate models.

  10. Understanding Legacy Features with Featureous

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olszak, Andrzej; Jørgensen, Bo Nørregaard


    Java programs called Featureous that addresses this issue. Featureous allows a programmer to easily establish feature-code traceability links and to analyze their characteristics using a number of visualizations. Featureous is an extension to the NetBeans IDE, and can itself be extended by third...

  11. Seasonal influence of ENSO on the Atlantic ITCZ and equatorial South America (United States)

    Münnich, M.; Neelin, J. D.


    In late boreal spring, especially May, a strong relationship exists in observations among precipitation anomalies over equatorial South America and the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), and eastern equatorial Pacific and central equatorial Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). A chain of correlations of equatorial Pacific SSTA, western equatorial Atlantic wind stress (WEA), equatorial Atlantic SSTA, sea surface height, and precipitation supports a causal chain in which El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) induces WEA stress anomalies, which in turn affect Atlantic equatorial ocean dynamics. These correlations show strong seasonality, apparently arising within the atmospheric links of the chain. This pathway and the influence of equatorial Atlantic SSTA on South American rainfall in May appear independent of that of the northern tropical Atlantic. Brazil's Nordeste is affected by the northern tropical Atlantic. The equatorial influence lies further to the north over the eastern Amazon and the Guiana Highlands.

  12. ENSO signals on sea-surface salinity in the eastern tropical pacific ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)


    Full Text Available SIGNAUX DE L’ENSO SUR LA SALINITE DE LA SURFACE DE LA MER DANS L’OCEAN PACIFIQUE TROPICAL ORIENTAL. Nous présentons les variations de la température et de la salinité de surface. Des navires de commerce ont été récemment équipés de thermosalinographes automatiques qui permettent d’échantillonner en continu et de localiser le front de salinité le long de la ligne Panama-Tahiti, séparant les masses d’eaux du golfe de Panama et celles du Pacifique central sud. La variation en latitude de la position du front halin suit la position de la zone de convergence intertropicale des vents du Pacifique. La salinité donne ainsi des informations supplémentaires sur le développement du phénomène El Niño dans le Pacifique tropical. La future transmission par satellite de la salinité de surface permettra de suivre en temps réel la distribution de la salinité de surface qui est étroitement liée aux échanges entre l’océan et l’atmosphère. SEÑALES DEL ENSO SOBRE LA SALINIDAD DE LA SUPERFICIE DEL OCÉANO PACÍFICO ORIENTAL. Presentamos las variaciones de la temperatura y de la salinidad de superficie. Barcos de comercio fueron recientemente equipados con termo-saliógrafos automáticos, los cuales permiten observar un muestreo continuo y ubicar el frente de salinidad en la recta Panamá-Tahiti, la cual separa las masas de agua del golfo de Panamá con las del Pacífico centro Sur. La variación en latitud de la ubicación del frente halino acompaña a la posición de la Zona de Convergencia Intertropical de los vientos del Pacífico. La salinidad proporciona también informaciones adicionales sobre el desarrollo del Fenómeno El Niño en el Pacífico tropical. La futura transmisión por satélite de la salinidad de superficie permitirá el monitoreo en tiempo real de la distribución en tiempo real de la salinidad de superficie, la cual está estrechamente vinculada con los intercambios entre el océano y la atmósfera. Various data

  13. Evidences linking ENSO and coral growth in the Southwestern-South Atlantic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evangelista, H. [LARAMG, Laboratorio de Radioecologia e Mudancas Globais/DBB/UERJ. Pav. HLC, Subsolo, Maracana, RJ (Brazil); Godiva, D. [LARAMG, Laboratorio de Radioecologia e Mudancas Globais/DBB/UERJ. Pav. HLC, Subsolo, Maracana, RJ (Brazil); Universidade Federal Fluminense, Outeiro Sao Joao Batista, s/n, Centro, Departamento de Geoquimica Ambiental, Niteroi, RJ (Brazil); Sifeddine, A. [IRD, Institut de Recherche Pour le Developpement, UR055 Paleotropique, Bondy (France); Universidade Federal Fluminense, Outeiro Sao Joao Batista, s/n, Centro, Departamento de Geoquimica Ambiental, Niteroi, RJ (Brazil); Leao, Z.M.A.N.; Kikuchi, R.K.P. [UFBA/Instituto de Geociencias. Rua Barao de Geremoabo, s/n, Federacao, Salvador, BA (Brazil); Rigozo, N.R. [LARAMG, Laboratorio de Radioecologia e Mudancas Globais/DBB/UERJ. Pav. HLC, Subsolo, Maracana, RJ (Brazil); FAETEC, Faculdade de Educacao e Tecnologia Thereza Porto Marques, Jacarei, SP (Brazil); Segal, B. [UFRJ/Museu Nacional/Setor de Celenterologia/Departamento de Invertebrados, Quinta da Boa Vista s/n, Sao Cristovao, RJ (Brazil); Ambrizzi, T. [USP/Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Kampel, M. [INPE/Divisao de Sensoriamento Remoto, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Cornec, F. le [Universidade Federal Fluminense, Outeiro Sao Joao Batista, s/n, Centro, Departamento de Geoquimica Ambiental, Niteroi, RJ (Brazil)


    Physical and biological changes in the marine environment, induced by oceanic-atmospheric processes, can be imprinted in massive coral skeletons. Herein, we present an evidence of potential El Nino impacts at the Southwestern South Atlantic Ocean (SWSA) inferred from the sclerochronology of the reef coral Favia leptophylla. The application of spectral analysis (wavelet decomposition and the iterative regression) to coral growth length and to meteorological-oceanographic parameters (air temperature, sea surface temperature and precipitation) as well as to Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and solar irradiation indicated a major significant inverse relationship between SOI and coral growth length at the 4-8 years frequency band. We propose here that coral growth length from the SWSA could be affected by El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events through an ''atmospheric bridge'', in contrast to its direct effect at the Pacific Ocean, related to the increase in sea surface temperature. (orig.)

  14. Seasonality in ENSO-related precipitation, river discharges, soil moisture, and vegetation index in Colombia (United States)

    Poveda, GermáN.; Jaramillo, Alvaro; Gil, Marta MaríA.; Quiceno, Natalia; Mantilla, Ricardo I.


    An analysis of hydrologic variability in Colombia shows different seasonal effects associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Spectral and cross-correlation analyses are developed between climatic indices of the tropical Pacific Ocean and the annual cycle of Colombia's hydrology: precipitation, river flows, soil moisture, and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Our findings indicate stronger anomalies during December-February and weaker during March-May. The effects of ENSO are stronger for streamflow than for precipitation, owing to concomitant effects on soil moisture and evapotranspiration. We studied time variability of 10-day average volumetric soil moisture, collected at the tropical Andes of central Colombia at depths of 20 and 40 cm, in coffee growing areas characterized by shading vegetation ("shaded coffee"), forest, and sunlit coffee. The annual and interannual variability of soil moisture are highly intertwined for the period 1997-1999, during strong El Niño and La Niña events. Soil moisture exhibited greater negative anomalies during 1997-1998 El Niño, being strongest during the two dry seasons that normally occur in central Colombia. Soil moisture deficits were more drastic at zones covered by sunlit coffee than at those covered by forest and shaded coffee. Soil moisture responds to wetter than normal precipitation conditions during La Niña 1998-1999, reaching maximum levels throughout that period. The probability density function of soil moisture records is highly skewed and exhibits different kinds of multimodality depending upon land cover type. NDVI exhibits strong negative anomalies throughout the year during El Niños, in particular during September-November (year 0) and June-August (year 0). The strong negative relation between NDVI and El Niño has enormous implications for carbon, water, and energy budgets over the region, including the tropical Andes and Amazon River basin.

  15. Feature Article

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education. Feature Article. Articles in Resonance – Journal of Science Education. Volume 1 Issue 1 January 1996 pp 80-85 Feature Article. What's New in Computers Windows 95 · Vijnan Shastri · More Details Fulltext PDF. Volume 1 Issue 1 January 1996 pp 86-89 Feature ...

  16. L'effet ENSO Sur les précipitations et les écoulements au XXème siècle - exemple de l'Equateur

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)


    Full Text Available Sur le littoral équatorien, l'analyse statistique des données pluviométriques disponibles, qui s'étalent sur une cinquantaine d'années, a permis de mettre en évidence deux résultats principaux : 1 -les effets de ENSO ne sont pas tous aussi négatifs qu'on le pense habituellement 2 - la fréquence de retour du ENSO 1982-1983 est supérieure à 1000 ans et son impact sur le milieu morpho-dynamique va au-delà des 100 000 km2. IMPACTO DE ENSO EN LAS PRECIPITACIONES Y ESCURRIMIENTOS DURANTE EL SIGLO XX - EL CASO DEL ECUADOR. En la región litoral del Ecuador, un análisis estadístico de las series pluviométricas disponibles, alrededor de cincuenta años, acarrea dos resultados principales: 1 - los efectos de ENSO no son todos tan negativos como se piensa habitualmente 2 - el período de retorno del ENSO 1982-1983 es mayor de los mil años y su impacto sobre el medio geomorfodinámico abarca más de 100 000 km2. ENSO IMPACT ON RAINFALL AND RUNOFF IN XXth CENTURY - CASE OF ECUADOR. On the Pacific coastal region of Ecuador, a statistical analysis of the largest available pluviometric records, about fifty years, yields two main results: 1 - ENSO effects are not so negative as one usually comments 2 - the return period of ENSO 1982-1983 occurrence is over one thousand years and the geomorphodynamic impact acts upon 100 000 km2.

  17. Massive bleaching of coral reefs induced by the 2010 ENSO, Puerto Cabello, Venezuela

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos del Mónaco


    Full Text Available El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO has generated global coral massive bleaching. The aim of this work was to evaluate the massive bleaching of coral reefs in Puerto Cabello, Venezuela derived from ENSO 2010. We evaluated the bleaching of reefs at five localities both at three and five meter depth. The coral cover and densities of colonies were estimated. We recorded living coral cover, number and diameter of bleached and nonbleached colonies of each coral species. The colonies were classified according to the proportion of bleached area. Satellite images (Modis Scar were analyzed for chlorophyll-a concentration and temperature in August, September, October and November from 2008-2010. Precipitation, wind speed and air temperature information was evaluated in meteorological data for 2009 and 2010. A total of 58.3% of colonies, belonging to 11 hexacoral species, were affected and the greatest responses were observed in Colpophyllia natans, Montastraea annularis and Montastraea faveolata. The most affected localities were closer to the mainland and had a bleached proportion up to 62.73±36.55%, with the highest proportion of affected colonies, whereas the farthest locality showed 20.25±14.00% bleached and the smallest proportion. The salinity in situ varied between 30 and 33ppm and high levels of turbidity were observed. According to the satellite images, in 2010 the surface water temperatura reached 31ºC in August, September and October, and resulted higher than those registered in 2008 and 2009. Regionally, chlorophyll values were higher in 2010 than in 2008 and 2009. The meteorological data indicated that precipitation in November 2010 was three times higher than in November 2009. Massive coral bleaching occurred due to a three month period of high temperatures followed by one month of intense ENSO-associated precipitation. However, this latter factor was likely the trigger because of the bleaching gradient observed. Rev. Biol. Trop. 60 (2

  18. Assessment of the APCC Coupled MME Suite in Predicting the Distinctive Climate Impacts of Two Flavors of ENSO during Boreal Winter (United States)

    Jeong, Hye-In; Lee, Doo Young; Karumuri, Ashok; Ahn, Joong-Bae; Lee, June-Yi; Luo, Jing-Jia; Schemm, Jae-Kyung E.; Hendon, Harry H.; Braganza, Karl; Ham, Yoo-Geun


    Forecast skill of the APEC Climate Center (APCC) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) seasonal forecast system in predicting two main types of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely canonical (or cold tongue) and Modoki ENSO, and their regional climate impacts is assessed for boreal winter. The APCC MME is constructed by simple composite of ensemble forecasts from five independent coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Based on a hindcast set targeting boreal winter prediction for the period 19822004, we show that the MME can predict and discern the important differences in the patterns of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly between the canonical and Modoki ENSO one and four month ahead. Importantly, the four month lead MME beats the persistent forecast. The MME reasonably predicts the distinct impacts of the canonical ENSO, including the strong winter monsoon rainfall over East Asia, the below normal rainfall and above normal temperature over Australia, the anomalously wet conditions across the south and cold conditions over the whole area of USA, and the anomalously dry conditions over South America. However, there are some limitations in capturing its regional impacts, especially, over Australasia and tropical South America at a lead time of one and four months. Nonetheless, forecast skills for rainfall and temperature over East Asia and North America during ENSO Modoki are comparable to or slightly higher than those during canonical ENSO events.

  19. Comparative Study of the Effects of ENSO Phenomenon (El Niño, La Niña on Temperature and Precipitation of Mashhad

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    vajiheh mohammadi sabet


    Full Text Available Introduction: The Southern Oscillation is a large scale phenomenon that changes the Normal oscillating air pressure on both sides of the Pacific Ocean. It disrupted the normal conditions and the patterns of temperature and precipitation change in the nearby region and other regions of the world. This phenomenon is caused by changing the water slope in the Pacific Ocean between Peru (northwestern South America and Northern Australia (about Indonesia and Malaysia. ENSO phenomenon is formed of Elnino (warm state and La Niña (cold state. There is high pressure system in the East and low pressure system in the West Pacific Ocean in normal conditions (Walker cycle. The trade winds blow from East to West with high intensity. ENSO start when the trade winds and temperature and pressure balance on both sides of the PacificOcean change. High pressure will form in the west and low pressure will form in the East. As a result, west will have high and east will have low rainfall. Temperature will change at these two locations. Enso longs about 6 to 18 months. This research investigated the impact of ENSO on monthly precipitation and temperature of Mashhad.The results showed that temperature and rainfall have a good relation with ENSO.This relation occurs in 0-5 month lag. Materials and Methods: The severity of ENSO phenomenon is known by an index which is called ENSO index. The index is the anomaly of sea surface temperature in the Pacific. The long-term temperature and precipitation data of Mashhad selected and analyzed. The Rainfall has no trend but temperature has trend. The trend of temperature modeled by MARS regression and trend was removed.The rainfall data changed to standard and temperature changed to anomaly for comparison with ENSO index. The 2016 annual and monthly temperature of Mashhad is not available. The 2016 Annual temperature was forecasted by ARMA (1,1 model. Then this forecast disaggregated to monthly temperature. For each period of

  20. High-Resolution Modeling of ENSO-Induced Precipitation in the Tropical Andes: Implications for Proxy Interpretation. (United States)

    Kiefer, J.; Karamperidou, C.


    Clastic sediment flux into high-elevation Andean lakes is controlled by glacial processes and soil erosion caused by high precipitation events, making these lakes suitable archives of past climate. To wit, sediment records from Laguna Pallcacocha in Ecuador have been interpreted as proxies of ENSO variability, owing to increased precipitation in the greater region during El Niño events. However, the location of the lake's watershed, the presence of glaciers, and the different impacts of ENSO on precipitation in the eastern vs western Andes have challenged the suitability of the Pallcacocha record as an ENSO proxy. Here, we employ WRF, a high-resolution regional mesoscale weather prediction model, to investigate the circulation dynamics, sources of moisture, and resulting precipitation response in the L. Pallcacocha region during different flavors of El Niño and La Niña events, and in the presence or absence of ice caps. In patricular, we investigate Eastern Pacific (EP), Central Pacific (CP), coastal El Niño, and La Niña events. We validate the model simulations against spatially interpolated station measurements and reanalysis data. We find that during EP events, moisture is primarily advected from the Pacific, whereas during CP events, moisture primarily originates from the Atlantic. More moisture is available during EP events, which implies higher precipitation rates. Furthermore, we find that precipitation during EP events is mostly non-convective in contrast to primarily convective precipitation during CP events. Finally, a synthesis of the sedimentary record and the EP:CP ratio of accumulated precipitation and specific humidity in the L. Pallcacocha region allows us to assess whether past changes in the relative frequency of the two ENSO flavors may have been recorded in paleoclimate archives in this region.

  1. Variability modes of precipitation along a Central Mediterranean area and their relations with ENSO, NAO, and other climatic patterns (United States)

    Kalimeris, Anastasios; Ranieri, Ezio; Founda, Dimitra; Norrant, Caroline


    This study analyses a century-long set of precipitation time series in the Central Mediterranean (encompassing the Greek Ionian and the Italian Puglia regions) and investigates the statistically significant modes of the interannual precipitation variability using efficient methods of spectral decomposition. The statistical relations and the possible physical couplings between the detected modes and the global or hemispheric patterns of climatic variability (the El Niño Southern Oscillation or ENSO, the North Atlantic Oscillation or NAO, the East Atlantic or EA, the Scandinavian or SCAND, and others) were examined in the time-frequency domain and low-order synchronization events were sought. Significant modes of precipitation variability were detected in the Taranto Gulf and the southern part of the Greek Ionian region at the sub-decadal scales (mostly driven by the SCAND pattern) and particularly at the decadal and quasi-decadal scales, where strong relations found with the ENSO activity (under complex implications of EA and NAO) prior to the 1930s or after the early-1970s. The precipitation variations in the Adriatic stations of Puglia are dominated by significant bi-decadal modes which found to be coherent with the ENSO activity and also weakly related with the Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature intrinsic variability. Additionally, important discontinuities characterize the evolution of precipitation in certain stations of the Taranto Gulf and the Greek Ionian region during the early-1960s and particularly during the early-1970s, followed by significant reductions in the mean annual precipitation. These discontinuities seem to be associated with regional effects of NAO and SCAND, probably combined with the impact of the 1970s climatic shift in the Pacific and the ENSO variability.

  2. Using Remote Sensing Products to Identify Marine Association Patterns in Factors Relating to ENSO in the Pacific Ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cunjin Xue


    Full Text Available El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO and its relationships with marine environmental parameters comprise a very complicated and interrelated system. Traditional spatiotemporal techniques face great challenges in dealing with which, how, and where the marine environmental parameters in different zones help to drive, and respond to, ENSO events. Remote sensing products covering a 15-year period from 1998 to 2012 were used to quantitatively explore these patterns in the Pacific Ocean (PO by a prevail quantitative association rule mining algorithm, that is, a priori, within a mining framework. The marine environmental parameters considered were monthly anomaly of sea surface chlorophyll-a (CHLA, monthly anomaly of sea surface temperature (SSTA, monthly anomaly of sea level anomaly (SLAA, monthly anomaly of sea surface precipitation (SSPA, and monthly anomaly of sea surface wind speed (WSA. Four significant discoveries are found, namely: (1 Association patterns among marine environmental parameters and ENSO events were found primarily in five sub-regions of the PO: the western PO, the central and eastern tropical PO, the middle of the northern subtropical PO, offshore of the California coast, and the southern PO; (2 In the western and the middle and east of the equatorial PO, the association patterns are more complicated than other regions; (3 The following factors were found to be predicators of and responses to La Niña events: abnormal decrease of SLAA and WSA in the east of the equatorial PO, abnormal decrease of SSPA and WSA in the middle of the equatorial PO, abnormal decrease of SSTA in the eastern and central tropical PO, and abnormal increase of SLAA in the western PO; (4 Only abnormal decrease of CHLA in the middle of the equatorial PO was found to be a predicator of and response to El Niño events. These findings will help to improve our abilities to identify the marine association patterns in factors relating to ENSO events.

  3. Modulation of the SSTA decadal variation on ENSO events and relationships of SSTA With LOD,SOI, etc (United States)

    Liao, D. C.; Zhou, Y. H.; Liao, X. H.


    Interannual and decadal components of the length of day (LOD), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Sea Surface Temperature anomaly (SSTA) in Nino regions are extracted by band-pass filtering, and used for research of the modulation of the SSTA on the ENSO events. Results show that besides the interannual components, the decadal components in SSTA have strong impacts on monitoring and representing of the ENSO events. When the ENSO events are strong, the modulation of the decadal components of the SSTA tends to prolong the life-time of the events and enlarge the extreme anomalies of the SST, while the ENSO events, which are so weak that they can not be detected by the interannual components of the SSTA, can also be detected with the help of the modulation of the SSTA decadal components. The study further draws attention to the relationships of the SSTA interannual and decadal components with those of LOD, SOI, both of the sea level pressure anomalies (SLPA) and the trade wind anomalies (TWA) in tropic Pacific, and also with those of the axial components of the atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) and oceanic angular momentum (OAM). Results of the squared coherence and coherent phases among them reveal close connections with the SSTA and almost all of the parameters mentioned above on the interannual time scales, while on the decadal time scale significant connections are among the SSTA and SOI, SLPA, TWA, ?3w and ?3w+v as well, and slight weaker connections between the SSTA and LOD, ?3pib and ?3bp

  4. What do we need to know to predict ENSO? Student-centered learning in a Master course in Climate Physics (United States)

    Lübbecke, Joke; Glessmer, Mirjam


    An important learning outcome of a Master of Sciences program is to empower students to understand which information they need, how they can gain the required knowledge and skills, and how to apply those to solve a given scientific problem. In designing a class on the El-Nino-Southern-Oscillation (ENSO) for students in the Climate Physics program at Kiel University, Germany, we have implemented various active learning strategies to meet this goal. The course is guided by an overarching question, embedded in a short story: What would we need to know to successfully predict ENSO? The students identify desired learning outcomes and collaboratively construct a concept map which then serves as a structure for the 12 weeks of the course, where each individual topic is situated in the larger context of the students' own concept map. Each learning outcome of the course is therefore directly motivated by a need to know expressed by the students themselves. During each session, students are actively involved in the learning process. They work individually or in small groups, for example testing different index definitions, analyzing data sets, setting up simple numerical models and planning and constructing hands-on experiments to demonstrate physical processes involved in the formation of El Niño events. The instructor's role is to provide the necessary background information and guide the students where it is needed. Insights are shared between groups as students present their findings to each other and combine the information, for example by cooperatively constructing a world map displaying the impacts of ENSO or by exchanging experts on different ENSO oscillator theories between groups. Development of this course was supported by the PerLe Fonds for teaching innovations at Kiel University. A preliminary evaluation has been very positive with students in particular appreciating their active involvement in the class.

  5. The impact of combined ENSO and PDO on the PNA climate: a 1,000-year climate modeling study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, B. [Environment Canada, Climate Data and Analysis Section, Climate Research Division, Toronto, ON (Canada); Zwiers, F.W. [Environment Canada, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Climate Research Division, Victoria (Canada)


    This study analyzes the atmospheric response to the combined Pacific interannual ENSO and decadal-interdecadal PDO variability, with a focus on the Pacific-North American (PNA) sector, using a 1,000-year long integration of the Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) coupled climate model. Both the tropospheric circulation and the North American temperature suggest an enhanced PNA-like climate response and impacts on North America when ENSO and PDO variability are in phase. The anomalies of the centers of action for the PNA-like pattern are significantly different from zero and the anomaly pattern is field significant. In association with the stationary wave anomalies, large stationary wave activity fluxes appear in the mid-high latitudes originating from the North Pacific and flowing downstream toward North America. There are significant Rossby wave source anomalies in the extratropical North Pacific and in the subtropical North Pacific. In addition, the axis of the Pacific storm track shifts southward with the positive PNA. Atmospheric heating anomalies associated with ENSO variability are confined primarily to the tropics. There is an anomalous heating center over the northeast Pacific, together with anomalies with the same polarity in the tropical Pacific, for the PDO variability. The in-phase combination of ENSO and PDO would in turn provide anomalous atmospheric energy transports towards North America from both the Tropical Pacific and the North Pacific, which tends to favor the occurrence of stationary wave anomalies and would lead to a PNA-like wave anomaly structure. The modeling results also confirm our analysis based on the observational record in the twentieth century. (orig.)

  6. Impacts of Forest to Urban Land Conversion and ENSO Phase on Water Quality of a Public Water Supply Reservoir

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emile Elias


    Full Text Available We used coupled watershed and reservoir models to evaluate the impacts of deforestation and l Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO phase on drinking water quality. Source water total organic carbon (TOC is especially important due to the potential for production of carcinogenic disinfection byproducts (DBPs. The Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC reservoir model is used to evaluate the difference between daily pre- and post- urbanization nutrients and TOC concentration. Post-disturbance (future reservoir total nitrogen (TN, total phosphorus (TP, TOC and chlorophyll-a concentrations were found to be higher than pre-urbanization (base concentrations (p < 0.05. Predicted future median TOC concentration was 1.1 mg·L−1 (41% higher than base TOC concentration at the source water intake. Simulations show that prior to urbanization, additional water treatment was necessary on 47% of the days between May and October. However, following simulated urbanization, additional drinking water treatment might be continuously necessary between May and October. One of six ENSO indices is weakly negatively correlated with the measured reservoir TOC indicating there may be higher TOC concentrations in times of lower streamflow (La Niña. There is a positive significant correlation between simulated TN and TP concentrations with ENSO suggesting higher concentrations during El Niño.

  7. CTBT calibration explosions at the Semipalatinsk test site (1997-2000)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leith, W.; Kluchko, L.J.; Knowles, C.P.; Linger, D.A.; Gabriel, L.; Belyashova, N.N.; Tukhvatulin, Sh.T.; Demin, V.N.; Konovalov, V.E.


    The article shows the results of experiments, conducted together by American and Kazakhstan researchers at the Semipalatinsk test site during 6 chemical calibration explosions and preparation of the seventh between 1997 and 2000. The main goal of the experiments is calibration of International Monitoring System for Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and development of understanding of explosions as seismic sources. (author)

  8. Decreasing influenza impact in lodges: 1997-2000 Calgary Regional Health Authority. (United States)

    McLeod, L; Lau, W W


    Influenza causes high morbidity and hospitalization rates in residents of seniors lodges, I causing increased pressure on emergency departments and hospital beds every winter. This quasi-experimental study assessed the prevention of influenza outbreaks and their consequences in Calgary lodges. A multidisciplinary team worked to improve communication between health professionals, increase resident and staff immunization coverage, obtain weights and creatinines prior to influenza season, and facilitate amantadine prophylaxis during influenza A outbreaks. We had an increase in standing orders for amantadine and up to 56% of residents from one lodge had documented creatinine levels. Amantadine was administered to residents within two days of outbreak notification. Influenza morbidity in lodge outbreaks decreased from a rate of 37% to 9% over the three years and hospitalization rates decreased from 9% to 1%. We recommend that other regions consider a similar approach to decreasing influenza morbidity and hospitalization in lodge residents.

  9. Evaluation of Rubella Immunity in Women before Marriage and Pregnancy in Isfahan During 1997-2000


    T Allameh; M Kianpoor


    Background: Congenital Rubella syndrome is a public health problem in many developing countries which has not yet been sufficiently put into account. There is an urgent need for collecting appropriate data to estimate the cost-effectiveness of a potential global Rubella control program. This study was conducted to determine susceptibility to Rubella in women who are going to marry or consult for pregnancy. Methods: This study began in 1997 and ended in 2000. The study was analytic descriptive...

  10. Evaluation of Rubella Immunity in Women before Marriage and Pregnancy in Isfahan During 1997-2000

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T Allameh


    Full Text Available Background: Congenital Rubella syndrome is a public health problem in many developing countries which has not yet been sufficiently put into account. There is an urgent need for collecting appropriate data to estimate the cost-effectiveness of a potential global Rubella control program. This study was conducted to determine susceptibility to Rubella in women who are going to marry or consult for pregnancy. Methods: This study began in 1997 and ended in 2000. The study was analytic descriptive and prospective. Eight hundred and thirty eight women who referred for premarriage tests or counselling for conception were included. According to antibody levels, test results were reported as immune and non-immune (susceptible for every individual. Results: Among 838 cases, 253 women (30.1% were non-immune (susceptible and 585 women (69.9% were immune. The educational status of the two groups were recorded. Analysis of data showed that the higher the educational level (62.2% for University degree holder, the lower the immunity against Rubella would be (75.2% for unfinished high school individuals. Furthermore, immunity in the younger group was higher (73.9% in <20 years than in the older group(61% in >30 years. Conclusion: More than one third of pre marriage and pre conceptional women were non-immune (susceptible to Rubella, so health providers should be aware of Rubella prevention and control in childbearing age via screening and vaccination. Immunity against Rubella can vary over time and the socioeconomic status is believed to play an important role in the level of immunity. Keywords: Congenital Rubella Syndrome, Rubella immunity, Rubella non-immunity.

  11. PREventie van ZIEkenhuisinfecties door Surveillance. Component infecties op de Intensive Care, 1997-2000

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mannien J; Beaumont MTA; Geubbels ELPE; Wille JC; Boer AS de; deelnemers aan het PREZIES-project; Kwaliteitsinstituut voor de; CIE


    In the period from July 1997 to December 2000, 19 hospitals collected data on 3,921 patients in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) for 41,744 ICU patient-days. Of these patients 1,065 had developed 1,673 infections, including 684 with pneumonia, 354 with sepsis, 353 with urinary tract infections and 282

  12. Together or Separate? Newspaper Coverage of Gender-Integrated Training, 1997-2000

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Murray, Gene


    Women and men have served in the defense of this country since the wars of the 18th century, but the concept of gender-integrated or mixed training is relatively new to the American military forces...

  13. Increasing water cycle extremes in California and in relation to ENSO cycle under global warming (United States)

    Yoon, Jin-Ho; Wang, S-Y Simon; Gillies, Robert R.; Kravitz, Ben; Hipps, Lawrence; Rasch, Philip J.


    Since the winter of 2013–2014, California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing statewide water stress, severe economic loss and an extraordinary increase in wildfires. Identifying the effects of global warming on regional water cycle extremes, such as the ongoing drought in California, remains a challenge. Here we analyse large-ensemble and multi-model simulations that project the future of water cycle extremes in California as well as to understand those associations that pertain to changing climate oscillations under global warming. Both intense drought and excessive flooding are projected to increase by at least 50% towards the end of the twenty-first century; this projected increase in water cycle extremes is associated with a strengthened relation to El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—in particular, extreme El Niño and La Niña events that modulate California's climate not only through its warm and cold phases but also its precursor patterns. PMID:26487088

  14. Tropical cyclone genesis in the Southern Hemisphere and its relationship with the ENSO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuleshov, Y.; Qi, L. [Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC (Australia). National Climate Centre; Chane Ming, F.; Chouaibou, I.; Hoareau, C. [UMR CNRS-Meteo-France-Univ. de la Reunion, La Reunion (France). Lab. de l' Atmosphere et des Cyclones; Roux, F. [Paul Sabatier Univ., CNRS, Toulouse (France). Lab. d' Aerologie


    Tropical cyclogenesis climatology over the South Indian and South Pacific Oceans has been developed using a new tropical cyclone (TC) archive for the Southern Hemisphere, and changes in geographical distribution of areas favourable for TC genesis related to changes in the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases have been investigated. To explain these changes, large-scale environmental variables which influence TC genesis and development such as sea surface temperatures (SSTs), relative humidity in mid-troposphere, vertical wind shear and lower tropospheric vorticity have been examined. In the South Indian Ocean, reduction of TC genesis in the western part of the basin and its increase in the eastern part as well as displacement of the area favourable for TC genesis further away from the equator during La Nina events compared to El Nino events can be explained by changes in geographical distribution of relative humidity and vorticity across the basin as primary contributors; positive anomalies of SSTs observed during La Nina seasons in the eastern part of the basin additionally contribute to enhanced cyclogenesis near the Western Australia. In the South Pacific Ocean, changes in geographical distribution of relative humidity and vorticity appear to be the key large-scale environmental factors responsible for enhanced TC genesis in the eastern (western) part of the basin as well as for the northeast (southwest) shift of points of cyclogenesis during El Nino (La Nina) events, with vertical wind shear and SSTs as additional contributing large-scale environmental variables. (orig.)

  15. ENSO Weather and Coral Bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia (United States)

    McGowan, Hamish; Theobald, Alison


    The most devastating mass coral bleaching has occurred during El Niño events, with bleaching reported to be a direct result of increased sea surface temperatures (SSTs). However, El Niño itself does not cause SSTs to rise in all regions that experience bleaching. Nor is the upper ocean warming trend of 0.11°C per decade since 1971, attributed to global warming, sufficient alone to exceed the thermal tolerance of corals. Here we show that weather patterns during El Niño that result in reduced cloud cover, higher than average air temperatures and higher than average atmospheric pressures, play a crucial role in determining the extent and location of coral bleaching on the world's largest coral reef system, the World Heritage Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. Accordingly, synoptic-scale weather patterns and local atmosphere-ocean feedbacks related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and not large-scale SST warming due to El Niño alone and/or global warming are often the cause of coral bleaching on the GBR.

  16. Feature Extraction

    CERN Document Server

    CERN. Geneva


    Feature selection and reduction are key to robust multivariate analyses. In this talk I will focus on pros and cons of various variable selection methods and focus on those that are most relevant in the context of HEP.

  17. Solar Features (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Collection includes a variety of solar feature datasets contributed by a number of national and private solar observatories located worldwide.

  18. Site Features (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This dataset consists of various site features from multiple Superfund sites in U.S. EPA Region 8. These data were acquired from multiple sources at different times...


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Salini Calderón


    Full Text Available Se indica cómo manejar una gran base de datos consistente de series temporales no lineales, aplicando distintas técnicas de modelamiento no lineal a estas series. Aunque no existen guías explícitas de manipulación de series temporales no lineales en la profusa bibliografía actual, existen diferentes enfoques que pueden ser tomados en cuenta. Para ello se estudió una base de datos mensual correspondiente a datos del Fenómeno del Niño (ENSO, entre los años 1866 y 2006. Se explica cómo debe manipularse esta base de datos que poseen características de no linealidad, la cual será usada para hacer pronósticos varios pasos en adelante. Se aplicaron dos test estándar: Información Mutua Promedio (AMI y Falsos Vecinos más Cercanos (FNN. Se obtuvo el espaciamiento óptimo de los datos, así como el número de datos hacia atrás necesarios para pronosticar valores hacia el futuro. Luego, se diseñaron varios modelos de redes neuronales artificiales (RNA, con diferentes reglas de aprendizajes, funciones de transferencia, elementos de procesamiento (o neuronas en la capa escondida, etc., que permitieron hacer pronóstico de hasta 20 pasos en adelante. Las mejores redes correspondieron a aquellas que poseían como regla de aprendizaje la Regla Delta y la Regla Extendida, con función de transferencia sigmoide y tangente hiperbólica. El tipo de RNA usada fue una de multicapas alimentada hacia adelante y entrenada mediante la técnica de propagación hacia atrás. Se probaron redes con una, dos capas ocultas y sin ninguna capa. El mejor modelo que se obtuvo resultó ser uno consistente de una capa oculta.We indicate how to handle a large database consisting of nonlinear time series, applying different nonlinear modelling techniques to this kind of times series. Nowadays in the current references there is no explicit guide of how to manipulate data from nonlinear time series; however, there are approaches that can be taken account. To this end

  20. Respuestas del clima de América del Sur a las fases de ENSO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)


    Full Text Available RÉPONSE DU CLIMAT DE L’AMÉRIQUE DU SUD AUX PHASES DE L’ENSO. Les phases hautes de l’ENSO, El Niño (EN, ou basses, Anti-Niño (AN, ont des répercussions diverses sur la pluviométrie de l’Amérique du sud. Pour caractériser ces diverses réponses, les précipitations annuelles ou saisonnières ont été réunies en trois groupes : celui des années EN, celui des années AN et celui des années normales. Les années qui précèdent les étés australs avec EN, les pluies hivernales dans le centre du Chili et dans les Andes de l’ouest de l’Argentine sont renforcées. Certaines années, on observe des sécheresses dans le Nordeste du Brésil au cours de l’été et de l’automne austral qui précèdent le phénomène El Niño dans le Pacifique Tropical. Au cours des mois de décembre à mars des années EN, il pleut abondamment sur la côte ouest de l’Amérique du Sud, depuis la baie de Tumaco jusqu’à Pacasmayo. À l’intérieur, dans la Sierra et l’Altiplano péruano-bolivien, on observe des sécheresses au cours de cette période alors qu’il pleut abondamment au cours de l’été et de l’automne austral dans les basses terres de l’Est de la Bolivie, du Paraguay et du Sud-Est du Brésil. À mesure que l’on s’avance vers l’automne austral, on observe de fortes précipitations dans la partie basse du bassin du Rio de la Plata et du Sud du Brésil. Dans la partie septentrionale et la partie inférieure du bassin amazonien les pluies sont déficitaires au cours des EN, pour devenir excédentaires au cours des AN. La partie intérieure du bassin amazonien réagit de manière inverse : on y observe des excès pluviométriques certaines années EN. Les régions du Venezuela et de la Colombie, sous l’influence climatique des Caraïbes et de l’Atlantique présentent des anomalies négatives de précipitation au cours des EN et une forte pluviosité au cours des AN. Une partie de la Pampa et de la Patagonie ne réagit pas aux

  1. O impacto do ENSO e do dipolo do Atlântico no nordeste do Brasil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)


    Full Text Available IMPACT DANS LE NORDESTE DU BRÉSIL DE L’ENSO ET DU DIPÔLE DE L’ATLANTIQUE. Nous avons tout d’abord passé rapidement en revue les phénomènes El Niño/Oscillation du Sud et dipôle de l’Atlantique en fonction de leur impact au Brésil et surtout dans la partie septentrionale du Nordeste du Brésil. Les anomalies de précipitations sont surtout provoquées par les variations de la SST dans les océans Atlantique tropical et Pacifique équatorial. On montre la réponse de l’atmosphère tropicale pour les circulations méridionales (Hadley et zonales (Walker, qui s’affaiblissent anormalement les années sèches, alors que les déplacements verticaux s’accélèrent les années humides. Hors des latitudes tropicales, des phénomènes de blocage, associés à des trains d’ondes de Rossby dans le Pacifique changent la puissance et la trajectoire des jet-stream dans les deux hémisphères, modifiant également la trajectoire et l’intensité des systèmes de fronts froids et provoquent des pluies torrentielles et des inondations dans le Sud-est et le Sud du Brésil. Se ha realizado una breve revisión de los fenómenos El Niño Oscilación del Sur y el Dipolo Atlántico con relación a sus impactos en Brasil, especialmente en la parte noreste del Noreste de Brasil (NEB. Las anomalías en las lluvias son causadas por las variaciones del Temperatura Superficial del Mar (SST en los Atlántico Tropical y Pacífico Ecuatorial. La respuesta atmosférica tropical se muestra como cambios en la circulación meridional (Hadley y zonal (Walker con un descenso anómalo en los años secos y un acelerado movimiento vertical durante los años con exceso de precipitación. En las latitudes extra-tropicales, un fenómeno de bloqueo asociado con un séquito de ondas de Rossby desde el Pacífico cambia la magnitud y trayectoria de las Corrientes en Chorro en ambos hemisferios, también cambiando la trayectoria e intensidad de los sistemas frontales fr

  2. Sensitivity of Sahelian Precipitation to Desert Dust under ENSO variability: a regional modeling study (United States)

    Jordan, A.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Gnanadesikan, A.


    Mineral dust is estimated to comprise over half the total global aerosol burden, with a majority coming from the Sahara and Sahel region. Bounded by the Sahara Desert to the north and the Sahelian Savannah to the south, the Sahel experiences high interannual rainfall variability and a short rainy season during the boreal summer months. Observation-based data for the past three decades indicates a reduced dust emission trend, together with an increase in greening and surface roughness within the Sahel. Climate models used to study regional precipitation changes due to Saharan dust yield varied results, both in sign convention and magnitude. Inconsistency of model estimates drives future climate projections for the region that are highly varied and uncertain. We use the NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model to quantify the interaction and feedback between desert dust aerosol and Sahelian precipitation. Using nested domains at fine spatial resolution we resolve changes to mesoscale atmospheric circulation patterns due to dust, for representative phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The NU-WRF regional earth system model offers both advanced land surface data and resolvable detail of the mechanisms of the impact of Saharan dust. Results are compared to our previous work assessed over the Western Sahel using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) CM2Mc global climate model, and to other previous regional climate model studies. This prompts further research to help explain the dust-precipitation relationship and recent North African dust emission trends. This presentation will offer a quantitative analysis of differences in radiation budget, energy and moisture fluxes, and atmospheric dynamics due to desert dust aerosol over the Sahel.

  3. Contrasting biogeochemical responses of ENSO induced upwelling variability in the Humboldt Current System (United States)

    Franco, Ana C.; Gruber, Nicolas; Münnich, Matthias


    The Humboldt Current System (HCS) is one of the most productive ecosystems in the world. This high productivity is supported by a large input of nutrients from the subsurface layers to the surface due to year-round upwelling. However, upwelling also supplies waters with low pH and low aragonite saturation state potentially affecting many organisms, especially those that calcify. The influence, extent and source of upwelled water vary substantially on interannual timescales in association with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, generating natural contrasting responses on the biogeochemistry of this system. Here we analyze these responses using an eddy resolving, basin-scale ocean model that covers the whole Pacific Ocean with high resolution (4 km) on the west coast of South America. We performed a simulation of the last 30 years (hindcast simulation) that allows us to investigate the influence of at least eight El Niño episodes and eight La Niña episodes on productivity variations and changes in oxygen concentration and aragonite saturation state. An absolute change in surface omega aragonite of almost 2 units, as well as an absolute change of the aragonite saturation depth of 200 m result from the change of an El Niño phase to a La Niña phase. This variability is on the same order of magnitude as the projected change in the aragonite saturation state in a centennial timescale. During La Niña events, a lower aragonite saturation state values and reduced oxygen concentration in the surface layer are a direct consequence of enhanced upwelling and increased net primary productivity. The opposite is true during El Niño events, where high values of omega aragonite occur in concordance with extraordinarily low net primary productivity values.

  4. Tropical cyclone genesis in the Southern Hemisphere and its relationship with the ENSO

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    Y. Kuleshov


    Full Text Available Tropical cyclogenesis climatology over the South Indian and South Pacific Oceans has been developed using a new tropical cyclone (TC archive for the Southern Hemisphere, and changes in geographical distribution of areas favourable for TC genesis related to changes in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO phases have been investigated. To explain these changes, large-scale environmental variables which influence TC genesis and development such as sea surface temperatures (SSTs, relative humidity in mid-troposphere, vertical wind shear and lower tropospheric vorticity have been examined. In the South Indian Ocean, reduction of TC genesis in the western part of the basin and its increase in the eastern part as well as displacement of the area favourable for TC genesis further away from the equator during La Niña events compared to El Niño events can be explained by changes in geographical distribution of relative humidity and vorticity across the basin as primary contributors; positive anomalies of SSTs observed during La Niña seasons in the eastern part of the basin additionally contribute to enhanced cyclogenesis near the Western Australia. In the South Pacific Ocean, changes in geographical distribution of relative humidity and vorticity appear to be the key large-scale environmental factors responsible for enhanced TC genesis in the eastern (western part of the basin as well as for the northeast (southwest shift of points of cyclogenesis during El Niño (La Niña events, with vertical wind shear and SSTs as additional contributing large-scale environmental variables.

  5. Large-scale shifts in phytoplankton groups in the Equatorial Pacific during ENSO cycles

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    I. Masotti


    Full Text Available The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO drives important changes in the marine productivity of the Equatorial Pacific, in particular during major El Niño/La Niña transitions. Changes in environmental conditions associated with these climatic events also likely impact phytoplankton composition. In this work, the distribution of four major phytoplankton groups (nanoeucaryotes, Prochlorococcus, Synechococcus, and diatoms was examined between 1996 and 2007 by applying the PHYSAT algorithm to the ocean color data archive from the Ocean Color and Temperature Sensor (OCTS and Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS. Coincident with the decrease in chlorophyll concentrations, a large-scale shift in the phytoplankton composition of the Equatorial Pacific, that was characterized by a decrease in Synechococcus and an increase in nanoeucaryote dominance, was observed during the early stages of both the strong El Niño of 1997 and the moderate El Niño of 2006. A significant increase in diatoms dominance was observed in the Equatorial Pacific during the 1998 La Niña and was associated with elevated marine productivity. An analysis of the environmental variables using a coupled physical-biogeochemical model (NEMO-PISCES suggests that the Synechococcus dominance decrease during the two El Niño events was associated with an abrupt decline in nutrient availability (−0.9 to −2.5 μM NO3 month−1. Alternatively, increased nutrient availability (3 μM NO3 month−1 during the 1998 La Niña resulted in Equatorial Pacific dominance diatom increase. Despite these phytoplankton community shifts, the mean composition is restored after a few months, which suggests resilience in community structure.

  6. Impacts of high-latitude volcanic eruptions on ENSO and AMOC. (United States)

    Pausata, Francesco S R; Chafik, Leon; Caballero, Rodrigo; Battisti, David S


    Large volcanic eruptions can have major impacts on global climate, affecting both atmospheric and ocean circulation through changes in atmospheric chemical composition and optical properties. The residence time of volcanic aerosol from strong eruptions is roughly 2-3 y. Attention has consequently focused on their short-term impacts, whereas the long-term, ocean-mediated response has not been well studied. Most studies have focused on tropical eruptions; high-latitude eruptions have drawn less attention because their impacts are thought to be merely hemispheric rather than global. No study to date has investigated the long-term effects of high-latitude eruptions. Here, we use a climate model to show that large summer high-latitude eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere cause strong hemispheric cooling, which could induce an El Niño-like anomaly, in the equatorial Pacific during the first 8-9 mo after the start of the eruption. The hemispherically asymmetric cooling shifts the Intertropical Convergence Zone southward, triggering a weakening of the trade winds over the western and central equatorial Pacific that favors the development of an El Niño-like anomaly. In the model used here, the specified high-latitude eruption also leads to a strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the first 25 y after the eruption, followed by a weakening lasting at least 35 y. The long-lived changes in the AMOC strength also alter the variability of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

  7. Two ENSO episodes with reversed impacts on the regional precipitation of the northeastern South America Dos eventos ENSO con impactos opuestos sobre la precipitación regional en el noreste de Sudamérica

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    Everaldo B. de Souza


    Full Text Available Diagnostic analyses of two ENSO episodes observed during 1954-55 (La Niña and 1972-73 (El Niño over tropical Pacific Ocean are reported. These years were marked by reversed impact on the regional precipitation observed over the northeastern South America. The observational results showed that, in the Pacific Ocean, the La Niña stayed well configured during both summer and autumn of 1954-55, however the El Niño presented its mature phase during summer of 1972-73 and an abrupt decline during autumn of 1973. On the other hand, the large-scale oceanic and atmospheric patterns related to the intertropical Atlantic SST gradient, created dynamic conditions that modulated the positioning of ITCZ in the equatorial Atlantic and regulated significantly the rainfall anomalies observed in the northeastern South America, overcoming the effect of the ENSO mode observed in the tropical Pacific.En el presente trabajo se realiza un estudio de diagnóstico de los eventos ENSO ocurridos en 1954-55 (La Niña y 1972-73 (El Niño. Durante 1954-55 (1972-73, se observaron anomalías de temperaturas de la superficie del mar (TSM positivas (negativas en el Atlántico Norte y negativas (positivas en el Atlántico Sur, lo que define la fase positiva (negativa del dipolo Atlántico. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que pese a la ocurrencia del evento La Niña (El Niño en el Pacífico, la configuración del dipolo positivo (negativo en el Atlántico creó las condiciones favorables para mantener la ITCZ al norte (sur del Ecuador. En consecuencia, se encontró un déficit (exceso de precipitación en el nor-noreste brasileño durante DEF y MAM de 1954-55 (1972-73. Por lo tanto, durante estos años la configuración anómala de TSM en el Atlántico moduló las anomalías de lluvia observadas en el Amazonas y noreste de Brasil, superando el efecto del ENSO.

  8. Revisiting Cholera-Climate Teleconnections in the Native Homeland: ENSO and other Extremes through the Regional Hydroclimatic Drivers (United States)

    Akanda, A. S.; Jutla, A.; Huq, A.; Colwell, R. R.


    Cholera is a global disease, with significantly large outbreaks occurring since the 1990s, notably in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia and recently in Haiti, in the Caribbean. Critical knowledge gaps remain in the understanding of the annual recurrence in endemic areas and the nature of epidemic outbreaks, especially those that follow extreme hydroclimatic events. Teleconnections with large-scale climate phenomena affecting regional scale hydroclimatic drivers of cholera dynamics remain largely unexplained. For centuries, the Bengal delta region has been strongly influenced by the asymmetric availability of water in the rivers Ganges and the Brahmaputra. As these two major rivers are known to have strong contrasting affects on local cholera dynamics in the region, we argue that the role of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), or other phenomena needs to be interpreted in the context of the seasonal role of individual rivers and subsequent impact on local environmental processes, not as a teleconnection having a remote and unified effect. We present a modified hypothesis that the influences of large-scale climate phenomena such as ENSO and IOD on Bengal cholera can be explicitly identified and incorporated through regional scale hydroclimatic drivers. Here, we provide an analytical review of the literature addressing cholera and climate linkages and present hypotheses, based on recent evidence, and quantification on the role of regional scale hydroclimatic drivers of cholera. We argue that the seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature, and resulting river discharge in the GBM basin region during ENSO and IOD events have a dominant combined effect on the endemic persistence and the epidemic vulnerability to cholera outbreaks in spring and fall seasons, respectively, that is stronger than the effect of localized hydrological and socio-economic sensitivities in Bangladesh. In addition, systematic identification of underlying seasonal

  9. Numerical Study on Interdecadal Modulations of ENSO-related Spring Rainfall over South China by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (United States)

    MAO, J.; WU, X.


    The spatio-temporal variations of eastern China spring rainfall are identified via empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of rain-gauge (gridded) precipitation datasets for the period 1958-2013 (1920-2013). The interannual variations of the first two leading EOF modes are linked with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with this linkage being modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The EOF1 mode, characterized by predominant rainfall anomalies from the Yangtze River to North China (YNC), is more likely associated with out-of-phase PDO-ENSO events [i.e., El Niño during cold PDO (EN_CPDO) and La Niña during warm PDO (LN_WPDO)]. The sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) distributions of EN_CPDO (LN_WPDO) events induce a significant anomalous anticyclone (cyclone) over the western North Pacific stretching northwards to the Korean Peninsula and southern Japan, resulting in anomalous southwesterlies (northeasterlies) prevailing over eastern China and above-normal (below-normal) rainfall over YNC. In contrast, EOF2 exhibits a dipole pattern with predominantly positive rainfall anomalies over southern China along with negative anomalies over YNC, which is more likely connected to in-phase PDO-ENSO events [i.e., El Niño during warm PDO (EN_WPDO) and La Niña during cold PDO (LN_CPDO)]. EN_WPDO (LN_CPDO) events force a southwest-northeast oriented dipole-like circulation pattern leading to significant anomalous southwesterlies (northeasterlies) and above-normal (below-normal) rainfall over southern China. Numerical experiments with the CAM5 model forced by the SSTA patterns of EN_WPDO and EN_CPDO events reproduce reasonably well the corresponding anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns and spring rainfall modes over eastern China, validating the related mechanisms.

  10. Effect of Modulation of ENSO by Decadal and Multidecadal Ocean-Atmospheric Oscillations on Continental US Streamflows (United States)

    Singh, S.; Abebe, A.; Srivastava, P.; Chaubey, I.


    Evaluation of the influences of individual and coupled oceanic-atmospheric oscillations on streamflow at a regional scale in the United States is the focus of this study. The main climatic oscillations considered in this study are: El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Unimpacted or minimally impacted by water management streamflow data from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) were used in this study. Two robust and novel non-parametric tests, namely, the rank based partial least square (PLS) and the Joint Rank Fit (JRFit) procedures were used to identify the individual and coupled effect of oscillations on streamflow across continental U.S. (CONUS), respectively. Moreover, the interactive effects of ENSO with decadal and multidecadal cycles were tested and quantified using the JRFit interaction test. The analysis of ENSO indicated higher streamflows during La Niña phase compared to the El Niño phase in Northwest, Northeast and the lower part of Ohio Valley while the opposite occurs for rest of the climatic regions in US. Two distinct climate regions (Northwest and Southeast) were identified from the PDO analysis where PDO negative phase results in increased streamflow than PDO positive phase. Consistent negative and positive correlated regions around the CONUS were identified for AMO and NAO, respectively. The interaction test of ENSO with decadal and multidecadal oscillations showed that El Niño is modulated by the negative phase of PDO and NAO, and the positive phase of AMO, respectively, in the Upper Midwest. However, La Niña is modulated by the positive phase of AMO and PDO in Ohio Valley and Northeast while in Southeast and the South it is modulated by AMO negative phase. Results of this study will assist water managers to understand the streamflow change patterns across the CONUS at decadal and multi-decadal time scales. The

  11. Paleoclimate Records from New Zealand Maar Lakes, Insights into ENSO Teleconnections and Climatic Events in the South (West) Pacific. (United States)

    Shulmeister, J.; Nobes, D. C.; Striewski, B.


    The maar craters of the New Zealand Auckland Volcanic Field (36.5°S, 174.5°E) contain some of the highest resolution late-Quaternary paleoclimate records in the Southern Hemisphere. Here we integrate laminae count results from recent drilling in the Hopua Crater with existing records from the nearby Onepoto Crater (Pepper et al., 2004). In total these records cover many thousands of years between the onset of the last glaciation maximum and the early mid-Holocene. The cores are strongly laminated. Individual laminae in both craters are very fine (sub-mm to mm scale) and form couplets which comprise a darker mineralogenic rich layer and a lighter diatomaceous layer. In places these couplets are annual, and may reflect seasonal algal blooms, but in other sections of the record, notably through the late-Glacial and Holocene, the couplets are deposited at inter-annual time scales. Spectral analyses of couplet thickness counts using a fast Fourier transform (FFT) with 64 to 256-year running windows, and a 50 per cent overlap indicate strong spectral power during the LGM and markedly weaker power during both the deglaciation and early Holocene. In fact there is no spectral strength for most of these periods. Three brief (centennial duration) events punctuate this extended period of low spectral power. These occur at c. 16 ka, c. 14.8 ka and during the early Holocene. They display spectral power in the 5-7yr ENSO window and also at longer time intervals that may be consistent with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. We infer the local switching on (or up) of ENSO and PDO teleconnections and suspect these are embedded in circum-polar circulation changes. In addition to these spectral power episodes, there is a general increase in the number of couplet cycles per century between the deglaciation and the early mid-Holocene. This matches observations from Equador and Peru and suggests that trans-Pacific ENSO responses are in phase between western tropical South America and New

  12. The Relationship between El nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Phenomenon and Seasonal Precipitation Variability in Eastern Kenya with Special Reference to Katumani: Its Implication to Crop Production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kitheka, S.K


    Climatic variability has been defined as a major limitation to agricultural production in semi arid Kenya. The major difficulty to both farmers and research community, has been the inability to to predict seasonal rainfall prior to the season onset. Although several researches have attempted and made advances in predicting rainfall amount, solutions to the problem have not been achieved. This study has examined and related rainfall at Katumani with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Rainfall variations during different phases of ENSO were established. Some advances in the early prediction of March-May and October -January rains for, both, the warm and cold phases of ENSO have been made. Crop production is closely related to the rainfall and therefore a need for revision of agronomic recommendation to tie them with rainfall variation

  13. El ciclo anual de la hidrología de Colombia en relación con el ENSO y la NAO

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    Full Text Available INFLUENCE DE L’ENSO ET DE LA NAO SUR LE CYCLE ANNUEL DE L’HYDROLOGIE DE COLOMBIE. On évalue l’impact de El Niño-Oscillation du Sud (ENSO et de l’Oscillation de l’Atlantique Nord (NAO sur le cycle annuel hydrologique colombien. Les résultats du Projet de Réanalyse Climatologique NCEP/NCAR ont été utilisés pour identifier les mécanismes de la circulation atmosphérique qui interviennent dans cette région au cours des phases extrêmes de l’ENSO. En particulier, l’affaiblissement du courant jet inférieur d’ouest, qui se propage du Pacifique vers l’intérieur de la Colombie, est l’un des principaux mécanismes de circulation susceptible de nous aider à expliquer les anomalies hydrologiques en situation El Niño. Les résultats confirment l’importance de l’influence de l’ENSO et de la NAO sur les précipitations et les débits de Colombie, en particulier au cours des trimestres de septembre-octobre-novembre et de décembre-janvier-février. Se cuantifica la dependencia del ciclo anual de la hidroclimatología de Colombia con respecto del fenómeno El Niño-Oscilación del Sur (ENSO y la Oscilación del Atlántico Norte (NAO. Se usan los resultados del Proyecto de Reanálisis Climático de NCEP/NCAR para identificar los mecanismos de la circulación involucrados en las anomalías climáticas en la región de Suramérica tropical durante las fases extremas del ENSO (El Niño y La Niña. De particular importancia, el debilitamiento, durante El Niño, de la corriente de chorro superficial del oeste que penetra desde el Océano Pacífico hacia el interior de Colombia es un mecanismo de la circulación que coadyuva para explicar las anomalías hidrológicas. Los resultados confirman la fuerte influencia del ENSO y la NAO sobre las lluvias y los caudales de Colombia, en particular durante los trimestres septiembre-octubre-noviembre y diciembre-enero-febrero. THE ANNUAL CYCLE OF THE HYDROLOGY IN COLOMBIA IN RELATION TO THE ENSO AND NAO

  14. Evolution of ENSO-related rainfall anomalies in Southeast Asia region and its relationship with atmosphere-ocean variations in Indo-Pacific sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Juneng, Liew; Tangang, Fredolin T. [Technology National University of Malaysia, Marine Science Program, School of Environmental and Natural Resource Sciences, Bangi Selangor (Malaysia)


    The Southeast Asia rainfall (SEAR) anomalies depend strongly on phases of El Nino (La Nina). Using an extended empirical orthogonal function (EEOF) analysis, it is shown that the dominant EEOF mode of SEAR anomalies evolves northeastward throughout a period from the summer when El Nino develops to spring the following year when the event weakens. This evolution is consistent with northeastward migration of the ENSO-related anomalous out going radiation field. During boreal summer (winter), the strong ENSO-related anomaly tends to reside in regions south (north) of the equator. The evolution of dominant mode of SEAR anomalies is in tandem with the evolution of ENSO-related sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The strengthening and weakening of ''boomerang-shaped'' SST in western Pacific, the changing sign of anomalous SST in Java Sea and the warming in Indian Ocean and South China Sea are all part of ENSO-related changes and all are linked to SEAR anomaly. The anomalous low-level circulation associated with ENSO-related SEAR anomaly indicates the strengthening and weakening of two off-equatorial anticyclones, one over the Southern Indian Ocean and the other over the western North Pacific. Together with patterns of El Nino minus La Nina composites of various fields, it is proposed that the northeastward evolution of SEAR anomaly is basically part of the large-scale eastward evolution of ENSO-related signal in the Indo-Pacific sector. The atmosphere-ocean interaction plays an important role in this evolution. (orig.)

  15. A High-Resolution ENSO-Driven Rainfall Record Derived From an Exceptionally Fast Growing Stalagmite From Niue Island (South Pacific) (United States)

    Troy, S.; Aharon, P.; Lambert, W. J.


    El Niño-Southern Oscillation's (ENSO) dominant control over the present global climate and its unpredictable response to a global warming makes the study of paleo-ENSO important. So far corals, spanning the Tropical Pacific Ocean, are the most commonly used geological archives of paleo-ENSO. This is because corals typically exhibit high growth rates (>1 cm/yr), and reproduce reliably surface water temperatures at sub-annual resolution. However there are limitations to coral archives because their time span is relatively brief (in the order of centuries), thus far making a long and continuous ENSO record difficult to achieve. On the other hand stalagmites from island settings can offer long and continuous records of ENSO-driven rainfall. Niue Island caves offer an unusual opportunity to investigate ENSO-driven paleo-rainfall because the island is isolated from other large land masses, making it untainted by continental climate artifacts, and its geographical location is within the Tropical Pacific "rain pool" (South Pacific Convergence Zone; SPCZ) that makes the rainfall variability particularly sensitive to the ENSO phase switches. We present here a δ18O and δ13C time series from a stalagmite sampled on Niue Island (19°00' S, 169°50' W) that exhibits exceptionally high growth rates (~1.2 mm/yr) thus affording a resolution comparable to corals but for much longer time spans. A precise chronology, dating back to several millennia, was achieved by U/Th dating of the stalagmite. The stalagmite was sampled using a Computer Automated Mill (CAM) at 300 μm increments in order to receive sub-annual resolution (every 3 months) and calcite powders of 50-100 μg weight were analyzed for δ18O and δ13C using a Continuous Flow Isotope Ratio Mass Spectrometer (CF-IRMS). The isotope time series contains variable shifts at seasonal, inter-annual, and inter-decadal periodicities. The δ13C and δ18O yield ranges of -3.0 to -13.0 (‰ VPDB) and -3.2 to -6.2 (‰ VPDB

  16. Sensitivity of North American agriculture to ENSO-based climate scenarios and their socio-economic consequences: Modeling in an integrated assessment framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosenberg, N.J.; Izaurralde, R.C.; Brown, R.A.; Sands, R.D. [Pacific Northwest National Lab., Richland, WA (United States); Legler, D. [Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL (United States). Center for Ocean Atmosphere Prediction Studies; Srinivasan, R. [Texas A and M Univ., College Station, TX (United States). Blacklands Research Center; Tiscareno-Lopez, M.


    A group of Canadian, US and Mexican natural resource specialists, organized by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) under its North American Energy, Environment and Economy (NA3E) Program, has applied a simulation modeling approach to estimating the impact of ENSO-driven climatic variations on the productivity of major crops grown in the three countries. Methodological development is described and results of the simulations presented in this report. EPIC (the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator) was the agro-ecosystem model selected-for this study. EPIC uses a daily time step to simulate crop growth and yield, water use, runoff and soil erosion among other variables. The model was applied to a set of so-called representative farms parameterized through a specially-assembled Geographic Information System (GIS) to reflect the soils, topography, crop management and weather typical of the regions represented. Fifty one representative farms were developed for Canada, 66 for the US and 23 for Mexico. El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) scenarios for the EPIC simulations were created using the historic record of sea-surface temperature (SST) prevailing in the eastern tropical Pacific for the period October 1--September 30. Each year between 1960 and 1989 was thus assigned to an ENSO category or state. The ENSO states were defined as El Nino (EN, SST warmer than the long-term mean), Strong El Nino (SEN, much warmer), El Viejo (EV, cooler) and Neutral (within {+-}0.5 C of the long-term mean). Monthly means of temperature and precipitation were then calculated at each farm for the period 1960--1989 and the differences (or anomalies) between the means in Neutral years and EN, SEN and EV years determined. The average monthly anomalies for each ENSO state were then used to create new monthly statistics for each farm and ENSO-state combination. The adjusted monthly statistics characteristic of each ENSO state were then used to drive a stochastic-weather simulator

  17. ENSO and interdecadal climate variability over the last century documented by geochemical records of two coral cores from the South West Pacific

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    T. Ourbak


    Full Text Available The south west Pacific is affected by climatic phenomena such as ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation or the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Near-monthly resolution calibrations of Sr/Ca, U/Ca and δ18Oc were made on corals taken from New Caledonia and Wallis Island. These geochemical variations could be linked to SST (sea surface temperature and SSS (sea surface salinity variations over the last two decades, itselves dependent on ENSO occurrences. On the other hand, near-half-yearly resolution over the last century smoothes seasonal and interannual climate signals, but emphasizes low frequency climate variability.

  18. ENSO-Indian Summer Monsoon Teleconnections During The Last Millennium In The PMIP3 Simulations (United States)

    Karumuri, A.; Tejavath, C. T.; Chakraborty, S.; Ramesh, R.


    Using the available model simulations from the PMIP3, we study the mean summer (June-September; JJAS) climate and its variability in India during the Last Millennium (CE 850-1849; LM), with emphasis on the Medieval Warm Period (MWP; CE 1000-1199 as against the CE 950-AD1350 from the proxy-observations) and Little Ice Age (LIA; CE 1550-1749 as against the CE 1500-1850 from proxy observations). Out of the eight available model datasets, we identify seven `realistic' models by validating the corresponding simulated global and Indian mean summer temperatures and mean Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), and their respective trends, of historical simulations (CMIP5) vintage, with concurrent observations/reanalysis. The models simulate higher (lower) mean summer temperatures in India as well as globally during the MWP (LIA) as compared to the corresponding LM statistics, in confirmation of several proxy data sets. Our Analysis shows a strong negative correlation between the NINO3.4 index and the ISMR and a positive correlation between NINO3.4 and summer temperature over India during the LM, as is observed in the last one-and-half centuries. The magnitude of the simulated ISMR-NINO3.4 index correlations as seen from the available models is found to be higher for the MWP as compared to that for the LIA although they are statistically significant at 0.05 level. The spatial distribution of monsoon-ENSO correlations also shows negative values during the LM just as the current period. Our analysis also shows that the above (below) LM-mean summer temperatures during the MWP (LIA) are associated with relatively higher (lower) number of concurrent El Niños as compared to the La Niñas. Proxy analysis studies by various groups suggest that the rainfall over India during the MWP is higher than that during the LIA. Interestingly, the MWP mean circulation `anomalies' (obtained by comparing the MWP mean circulation with that over the LM period) indicate a westward shift in Walker

  19. Influence of aerosol-cloud interaction on austral summer precipitation over Southern Africa during ENSO events (United States)

    Ruchith, R. D.; Sivakumar, V.


    In the present study, we are investigating the role of aerosols-and clouds in modulating the austral summer precipitation (December-February) during ENSO events over southern Africa region for the period from 2002 to2012 by using satellite and complimentary data sets. Aerosol radiative forcing (ARF) and Cloud radiative forcing (CRF) shows distinct patterns for El-Nina and La-Nina years. Further analysis were carried out by selecting the four Southern Africa regions where the precipitation shows remarkable difference during El-Nino and La-Nina years. These regions are R1 (33°S-24°S, 18°E-30°E), R2 (17°S-10°S, 24°E-32°E), R3 (19°S-9°S, 33°E-41°E) and R4 (7°S-0°S, 27°E-36°E). Aerosol Optical depth (AOD) shows considerable differences during these events. In region R1, R2 and R3 AOD shows more abundance in El-Nino years as compared to La-Nina years where as in R4 the AOD shows more abundance in La-Nina years. Cloud Droplet Effective radius (CDER) shows higher values during La-Nina years over R1, R2 and R3 regions but in R4 region CDER shows higher values in El-Nino years. Aerosol indirect effect (AIE) is estimated both for fixed cloud liquid water path (CLWP) and for fixed cloud ice path (CIP) bins, ranging from 1 to 300 gm -2 at 25 gm -2 interval over all the selected regions for El-Nino and La-Nina years. The results indicate more influence of positive indirect effect (Twomey effect) over R1 and R3 region during El-Nino years as compared to La-Nina years. This analysis reveals the important role of aerosol on cloud-precipitation interaction mechanism illustrating the interlinkage between dynamics and microphysics during austral summer season over southern Africa.

  20. Water table depth fluctuations during ENSO phenomenon on different tropical peat swamp forest land covers in Katingan, Indonesia (United States)

    Rossita, A.; Witono, A.; Darusman, T.; Lestari, D. P.; Risdiyanto, I.


    As it is the main role to maintain hydrological function, peatland has been a limelight since drainage construction for agriculture evolved. Drainage construction will decrease water table depth (WTD) and result in CO2 emission release to the atmosphere. Regardless of human intervention, WTD fluctuations can be affected by seasonal climate and climate variability, foremost El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study aims to determine the correlation between rainfall in Katingan and ENSO index, analyze the pattern of WTD fluctuation of open area and forest area in 2015 (during very strong El Niño) and 2016 (during weak La Niña), calculate the WTD trendline slope during the dry season, and rainfall and WTD correlation. The result showed that open area has a sharper slope of decreasing or increasing WTD when entering the dry, compared to the forest area. Also, it is found that very strong El Niño in 2015 generated a pattern of more extreme decreasing WTD during the dry season than weak La Niña in 2016.

  1. Impacts of the ENSO Modoki and other Tropical Indo-Pacific Climate-Drivers on African Rainfall. (United States)

    Preethi, B; Sabin, T P; Adedoyin, J A; Ashok, K


    The study diagnoses the relative impacts of the four known tropical Indo-Pacific drivers, namely, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), ENSO Modoki, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and Indian Ocean Basin-wide mode (IOBM) on African seasonal rainfall variability. The canonical El Niño and El Niño Modoki are in general associated with anomalous reduction (enhancement) of rainfall in southern (northern) hemispheric regions during March-May season. However, both the El Niño flavours anomalously reduce the northern hemispheric rainfall during June-September. Interestingly, during boreal spring and summer, in many regions, the Indian Ocean drivers have influences opposite to those from tropical Pacific drivers. On the other hand, during the October-December season, the canonical El Niño and/or positive IOD are associated with an anomalous enhancement of rainfall in the Eastern Africa, while the El Niño Modoki events are associated with an opposite impact. In addition to the Walker circulation changes, the Indo-Pacific drivers influence the African rainfall through modulating jet streams. During boreal summer, the El Niño Modoki and canonical El Niño (positive IOD) tend to weaken (strengthen) the tropical easterly jet, and result in strengthening (weakening) and southward shift of African easterly jet. This anomalously reduces (enhances) rainfall in the tropical north, including Sahelian Africa.

  2. Simulations for Making On-farm Decisions in Relation to ENSO in Semi-arid Areas, South Africa (United States)

    Tesfuhuney, W. A.; Crespo, O. O.; Walker, S. S.; Steyn, S. A.


    The study was employed to investigate and improve on-farm decision making on planting dates and fertilization by relating simulated yield and seasonal outlook information. The Agricultural Production Systems SIMulator model (APSIM) was used to explore ENSO/SOI effects for small-scale farmers to represent weather conditions and soil forms of semi-arid areas of Bothaville, Bethlehem and Bloemfontein regions in South Africa. The relationships of rainfall and SOI anomalies indicate a positive correlation, signifies ENSO/SOI as seasonal outlooks for study areas. Model evaluation results showed higher degree of bias (RMSEs/RMSE value of 0.88-0.98). The D-index of agreement in the range 0.61-0.71 indicate the ability of the APSIM-Maize model is an adequate tool in evaluating relative changes in maize yield in relation to various management practices and seasonal variations. During rainy, La Niño years (SOI > +5), highest simulated yields were found for Bethlehem in November with addition of 100 - 150 kg ha-1 N fertilization and up to 50 kg ha-1 for both Bothaville and Bloemfontein. With respect to various levels of fertilization, the dry El Niño years (SOI risk for dryland farming in semi-arid regions. Key word: Semi-arid; APSIM; SOI; El Niño / La Niña; On-farm Decisions

  3. Changes in atmospheric rivers and moisture transport over the Northeast Pacific and western North America in response to ENSO diversity (United States)

    Kim, Hye-Mi; Zhou, Yang; Alexander, Michael A.


    The year-to-year changes in atmospheric rivers (ARs) and moisture transport over the northeast Pacific and western North America are investigated during December to February (DJF) from 1979/80 to 2015/16. Changes in AR frequency, intensity, and landfall characteristics are compared between three ENSO phases: central Pacific El Niño (CPEN), eastern Pacific El Niño (EPEN), and La Niña (NINA). During EPEN events, the subtropical jet extends to the south and east with an anomalous cyclonic flow around a deeper Aleutian Low. More moisture is transported towards North America and AR frequency is increased over western North America. In CPEN events, the Aleutian low shifts further southward relative to its position in EPEN, resulting in an increase in the frequency and intensity of landfalling ARs over the southwestern US. In NINA events, the landfalling AR frequency is reduced associated with anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the eastern North Pacific. We diagnose the contribution of multiple factors to the seasonal mean moisture transport using moisture budgets. During the three ENSO phases, the change in low-frequency circulation (dynamical process) is the leading contributor to the seasonal mean moisture flux divergence, while the contributions of the synoptic anomalies and the change in moisture anomaly (thermodynamic process) are not significant along the west coast of North America.

  4. An improved ENSO simulation by representing chlorophyll-induced climate feedback in the NCAR Community Earth System Model. (United States)

    Kang, Xianbiao; Zhang, Rong-Hua; Gao, Chuan; Zhu, Jieshun


    The El Niño-Southern oscillation (ENSO) simulated in the Community Earth System Model of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR CESM) is much stronger than in reality. Here, satellite data are used to derive a statistical relationship between interannual variations in oceanic chlorophyll (CHL) and sea surface temperature (SST), which is then incorporated into the CESM to represent oceanic chlorophyll -induced climate feedback in the tropical Pacific. Numerical runs with and without the feedback (referred to as feedback and non-feedback runs) are performed and compared with each other. The ENSO amplitude simulated in the feedback run is more accurate than that in the non-feedback run; quantitatively, the Niño3 SST index is reduced by 35% when the feedback is included. The underlying processes are analyzed and the results show that interannual CHL anomalies exert a systematic modulating effect on the solar radiation penetrating into the subsurface layers, which induces differential heating in the upper ocean that affects vertical mixing and thus SST. The statistical modeling approach proposed in this work offers an effective and economical way for improving climate simulations.

  5. Featuring animacy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elizabeth Ritter


    Full Text Available Algonquian languages are famous for their animacy-based grammatical properties—an animacy based noun classification system and direct/inverse system which gives rise to animacy hierarchy effects in the determination of verb agreement. In this paper I provide new evidence for the proposal that the distinctive properties of these languages is due to the use of participant-based features, rather than spatio-temporal ones, for both nominal and verbal functional categories (Ritter & Wiltschko 2009, 2014. Building on Wiltschko (2012, I develop a formal treatment of the Blackfoot aspectual system that assumes a category Inner Aspect (cf. MacDonald 2008, Travis 1991, 2010. Focusing on lexical aspect in Blackfoot, I demonstrate that the classification of both nouns (Seinsarten and verbs (Aktionsarten is based on animacy, rather than boundedness, resulting in a strikingly different aspectual system for both categories. 

  6. Teleconnections in Groundwater of U.S. Principal Aquifers to the Non-Stationarity of ENSO, NAO, PDO, and AMO (United States)

    Gurdak, J. J.; Kuss, A. M.


    Groundwater will play an important role in society's adaptation to climate variability and change. Therefore, it is particularly important to detect and quantify teleconnections in groundwater with non-stationarity in climate variability on interannual to multidecadal timescales because of the tangible and near-term implications for water-resource management. Interannual to multidecadal climate variability partially controls precipitation distribution in space and time, drought frequency and severity, snowmelt runoff, streamflow, and other hydrologic processes that profoundly affects surface-water resources. However, the effects of interannual to multidecadal climate variability on recharge rates and mechanisms and other subsurface hydrologic processes that affect groundwater quantity and quality are largely unknown in most aquifers of the United States (U.S.) and other regions of the world. Here we use singular spectrum analysis (SSA), wavelet coherence analysis, and lag correlation to quantify the effects of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (2-7 year cycle), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (3-6 year cycle), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (10-25 year cycle), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) (50-70 year cycle) on precipitation, groundwater levels, simulated groundwater pumping, and climate varying recharge rates across the regionally extensive Central Valley (52,000 km2), Basin and Range (700,000 km2), High Plains (450,000 km2), and North Atlantic Coastal Plain (130,000 km2) Principal Aquifers (PAs) of the U.S. The results indicate that precipitation, recharge, and groundwater levels are partially affected by interannual to multidecadal climate variability and groundwater-level fluctuations are not solely a function of temporal patterns in pumping. ENSO and PDO have a greater control than NAO and AMO on variability in precipitation and groundwater levels across the U.S., particularly in the western and central PAs. At many locations, recharge

  7. Influence of ENSO on Regional Indian Summer Monsoon Precipitation—Local Atmospheric Influences or Remote Influence from Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Indrani Roy


    Full Text Available Using CMIP5 model outputs in different El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO phases, this work investigates the indicator that could be used as an Index to characterise regional Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM precipitation. Dividing the Indian subcontinent into five arbitrarily chosen regions, viz. Central North East (CNE (18°N–31°N, 86°E–75°E, Hilly (H (28°N–38°N, 85°E–70°E, North West (NW (21°N–31°N, 79°E–67°E, North East (NE (21°N–31°N, 86°E–97°E and Southern India (S (18°N–7°N, 73°E–85°E, local wind field and remote influences from the tropical Pacific are considered to improve understanding of regional monsoon rainfall. Results are also compared with observations/reanalysis data to pinpoint areas of shortcomings and agreements. Model results suggest that regional wind velocity, viz. meridional wind component (V at 850 mb level (V850 and zonal component at 200 mb (U200 and 850 mb (U850 can yield better estimation of local precipitation in regions CNE, H and NW, agreeing well with earlier proposed monsoon Indices. Such observations are independent of different subcategories of ENSO phases and models show good correspondence with observations. Analyses with V at 200 mb (V200 indicate circulation of the upper branch of Hadley cells in regions CNE and S, though suggest the best agreement among models in comparison with other fields, but there are some deviations from observations, indicating a missing mechanism in the models. Using models, this study identified the best parameter in different regions that could be used for the regional monsoon Index, irrespective of various ENSO subcategories; for CNE it is the U200, for H it is U200 and U850, and for NW it is U850. The current analysis, however, fails to indicate anything clearly about the NE region. When focusing on the remote influence from the eastern Pacific region, it is found that atmospheric contribution to regional ISM precipitation fails to indicate

  8. Are population dynamics of shorebirds affected by El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) while on their non-breeding grounds in Ecuador? (United States)

    O'Hara, Patrick D.; Haase, Ben J. M.; Elner, Robert W.; Smith, Barry D.; Kenyon, Jamie K.


    Declines in avian populations are a global concern, particularly for species that migrate between Arctic-temperate and tropical locations. Long-term population studies offer opportunities to detect and document ecological effects attributable to long-term climatic cycles such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In this study, we report possible population-level effects of such climatic cycles on shorebird species that use two non-breeding season sites in Ecuador (Santa Elena peninsula area, near La Libertad). During our 9-year study period (1991/1992-1999/2000), there was a particularly strong ENSO warm phase event during 1997/1998. Population trend data for three species of shorebird, Western Sandpipers ( Calidris mauri), Semipalmated Sandpipers ( C. pusilla), and Least Sandpipers ( C. minutilla), indicated abundances generally declined during the 1990s, but there was an increase in the proportion of first-year birds and their abundance in the years following the 1997/1998 ENSO warm phase. There was some support for variation in apparent survivorship associated with the onset of the ENSO warm phase event in our population models, based on capture-mark-recapture data. Following the 1997/1998 ENSO event onset, individuals for all three species were significantly lighter during the non-breeding season ( F1,3789 = 6.6, p = 0.01). Least-squares mean mass (controlling for size, sex and day of capture) for first-year birds dropped significantly more than for adults following ENSO (first-year mass loss = 0.69 ± 0.12 g; adult mass loss = 0.34 ± 0.11 g, F1,3789 = 5.31, p = 0.021), and least-squares mean mass dropped most during the period when sandpipers prepare for northward migration by gaining mass and moulting into breeding plumage. Least Sandpipers may have declined the most in mean mass following ENSO (0.76 ± 0.19 g), whereas Semipalmated Sandpipers were 0.52 ± 0.12 g lighter, and Western Sandpipers 0.40 ± 0.13 g lighter, but overall variation among

  9. Microplankton biomass and diversity in the Vietnamese upwelling area during SW monsoon under normal conditions and after an ENSO event

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Loick-Wilde, Natalie; Bombar, Deniz; Doan, Hai Nhu


    to show how climatological-driven changes can have a significant influence on the distribution of microplankton communities and their biomass via its impact on nutrient concentrations in the water column. The first summer in July 2003 followed a weak El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event...... (10–20 µm) prevailed ubiquitously during reduced upwelling. During normal upwelling, the diatom Rhizosolenia sp. dominated the cell-carbon biomass in the silicate poor upwelling waters. Trichodesmium erythraeum dominated in the Mekong-influenced and nutrient depleted offshore waters, where it co......Investigating microplankton biomass and diversity under different climatological conditions is key to the understanding of cascading effects of climate change on nutrient cycles and biological productivity. Here we have used data collected during two contrasting summers along the coast of Viet Nam...

  10. Un análisis de la estructura termal de la estación costera 'La Libertad' y su relación con los eventos ENSO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)


    Full Text Available ANALYSE DE LA STRUCTURE THERMIQUE DE L’OCEAN A LA STATION «LA LIBERTAD» ET DE SA RELATION AVEC L’ENSO. L’Institut Océanographique Militaire (INOCAR assure tous les 20 jours, depuis 1990, des mesures dans une colonne d’eau de 100 m de profondeur, à dix milles au large du port équatorien de La Libertad, situé dans la Péninsule de Santa Helena. On y observe des ondes équatoriales qui provoquent une augmentation du niveau moyen de l’eau et un enfoncement des isothermes, ce qui permet de considérer que leur distribution est liée à l’apparition des événements ENSO. Nous avons déterminé par ailleurs la relation entre le niveau moyen de l’océan et la profondeur des isothermes. Pour cela nous avons choisi l’isotherme de 20°C que l’on supposera représentative de la distribution thermique (de l’océan dans cette station côtière. El Instituto Oceanográfico de la Armada (INOCAR mantiene desde 1990 hasta la fecha una estación costera a 10 millas náuticas frente a las costa del puerto de La Libertad (Península de Santa Elena, en la que se efectúa un muestreo de toda la columna de agua desde la superficie hasta los 100 m de profundidad, cada 20 días. Del análisis preliminar se ha podido observar que la distribución de las isotermas responde a la presencia de los eventos ENSO como se conoce, durante un episodio ENSO la costa del Ecuador es visitada por ondas ecuatoriales, las cuales a su paso producen una elevación del nivel medio del mar y una profundización de las isotermas. Por lo que se considera que esta distribución de las isotermas guarda relación con la ocurrencia de los eventos ENSO frente a nuestras costas. Por otro lado se determina la relación existente entre el nivel del mar y la profundización de las isotermas. Para este efecto, se simplificó la distribución térmica de la estación costera de La Libertad, seleccionando la isoterma de 20°C, por considerarla representativa de la distribución t

  11. Proxy Records of the Indonesian Low and the El Ni{tilde n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from Stable Isotope Measurements of Indonesian Reef Corals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moore, M.D.


    The Earth`s largest atmospheric convective center is the Indonesian Low. It generates the Australasian monsoon, drives the zonal tropospheric Walker Circulation, and is implicated in the genesis of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The long-term variability of the Indonesian Low is poorly characterized, yet such information is crucial for evaluating whether changes in the strength and frequency of ENSO events are a possible manifestation of global warming. Stable oxygen isotope ratios ({delta}{sup 18}O) in shallow-water reef coral skeletons track topical convective activity over hundreds of years because the input of isotopically-depleted rainwater dilutes seawater {delta}{sup 18}O. Corals also impose a temperature-dependent fractionation on {delta}{sup 18}O, but where annual rainfall is high and sea surface temperature (SST) variability is low the freshwater flux effect dominates.

  12. Tropical Ocean Evaporation/SST Sensitivity and It's Link to Water and Energy Budget Variations During ENSO (United States)

    Robertson, Franklin R.; Marshall, Susan; Oglesby, Robert; Roads, John; Sohn, Byung-Ju; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)


    The continuing debate over feedback mechanisms governing tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and tropical climate in general has highlighted the diversity of potential checks and balances within the climate system. Competing feedbacks due to changes in surface evaporation, water vapor, and cloud long- and shortwave radiative properties each may serve critical roles in stabilizing or destabilizing the climate system. It is also intriguing that even those climate variations having origins internal to the climate system - changes in ocean heat transport for example, apparently require complementary equilibrating effects by changes in atmospheric energy fluxes. Perhaps the best observational evidence of this is the relatively invariant nature of tropically averaged net radiation exiting the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) as measured by broadband satellite sensors over the past two decades. Thus, analyzing how these feedback mechanisms are operating within the context of current interannual variability may offer considerable insight for anticipating future climate change. In this paper we focus primarily on interannual variations of ocean evaporative fluxes and their significance for coupled water and energy cycles within the tropical climate system. In particular, we use both the da Silva estimates of surface fluxes (based on the Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set, COADS) and numerical simulations from several global climate models to examine evaporation sensitivity to perturbations in SST associated with warm and cold ENSO events. The specific questions we address are as follows: (1) What recurring patterns of surface wind and humidity anomalies are present during ENSO and how do they combine to yield systematic evaporation anomalies?, (2) What is the resulting tropical ocean mean evaporation-SST sensitivity associated with this climate perturbation?, and (3) What role does this evaporation play in tropical heat and water balance over tropical oceanic regions? We

  13. Influences of the ENSO, oscillation Madden-Julian, waves of the east, hurricanes and moon phases on the diurnal cycle of precipitation at the tropical Andes of Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poveda, German; Mesa, Oscar; Agudelo, Paula; Alvarez, Juan; Arias, Paola; Moreno, Hernan; Salazar, Luis; Toro, Vladimir; Vieira, Sara


    We study the effects of large-scale ocean-atmospheric, astronomic phenomena on the diurnal cycle of precipitation at the tropical Andes of Colombia. Such phenomena include both phases of El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely El Nino and La Nina, the intra seasonal Madden-Julian oscillation, tropical easterly waves (4-8 days), moon phases and hurricanes over the Atlantic and eastern pacific oceans. We found a clear-cut effect of both ENSO phases: El Nino is associated with a diminished rainfall diurnal cycle, and La Nina intensifies it. Thus, ENSO modulates precipitation in Colombia at timescales ranging from hours to decades. We identified a close association with different phases of the Madden-Julian oscillation, as the diurnal cycle is intensified (larger amplitude) during its westerly phase, but it gets decreased during its easterly phase. For both ENSO and the Madden-Julian oscillation we identified a clear-cut influence on the amplitude of the diurnal cycle, yet the phase is conserved for the most part. Tropical easterly waves appear to affect the diurnal cycle, but no clear overall signal is pervasive throughout the region. We al so found a significant statistical association with hurricanes occurring over the northeastern pacific ocean with the diurnal cycle of precipitation at rain gages located over the eastern slope of the eastern range of the Colombian Andes. Rainfall at all the remaining slopes of the Andes is statistically associated with hurricanes occurring at the tropical north Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea. Moon phases are not statistically associated with the diurnal cycle and daily total rainfall

  14. Multi-scale linkages of winter drought variability to ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation: A case study in Shaanxi, North China (United States)

    Liu, Zhiyong; Zhang, Xin; Fang, Ruihong


    Understanding the potential connections between climate indices such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) and drought variability will be beneficial for making reasonable predictions or assumptions about future regional droughts, and provide valuable information to improve water resources planning and design for specific regions of interest. This study is to examine the multi-scale relationships between winter drought variability over Shaanxi (North China) and both ENSO and AO during the period 1960-2009. To accomplish this, we first estimated winter dryness/wetness conditions over Shaanxi based on the self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (PDSI). Then, we identified the spatiotemporal variability of winter dryness/wetness conditions in the study area by using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF). Two primary sub-regions of winter dryness/wetness conditions across Shaanxi were identified. We further examined the periodical oscillations of dryness/wetness conditions and the multi-scale relationships between dryness/wetness conditions and both ENSO and AO in winter using wavelet analysis. The results indicate that there are inverse multi-scale relations between winter dryness/wetness conditions and ENSO (according to the wavelet coherence) for most of the study area. Moreover, positive multi-scale relations between winter dryness/wetness conditions and AO are mainly observed. The results could be beneficial for making reasonable predictions or assumptions about future regional droughts and provide valuable information to improve water resources planning and design within this study area. In addition to the current study area, this study may also offer a useful reference for other regions worldwide with similar climate conditions.

  15. Online feature selection with streaming features. (United States)

    Wu, Xindong; Yu, Kui; Ding, Wei; Wang, Hao; Zhu, Xingquan


    We propose a new online feature selection framework for applications with streaming features where the knowledge of the full feature space is unknown in advance. We define streaming features as features that flow in one by one over time whereas the number of training examples remains fixed. This is in contrast with traditional online learning methods that only deal with sequentially added observations, with little attention being paid to streaming features. The critical challenges for Online Streaming Feature Selection (OSFS) include 1) the continuous growth of feature volumes over time, 2) a large feature space, possibly of unknown or infinite size, and 3) the unavailability of the entire feature set before learning starts. In the paper, we present a novel Online Streaming Feature Selection method to select strongly relevant and nonredundant features on the fly. An efficient Fast-OSFS algorithm is proposed to improve feature selection performance. The proposed algorithms are evaluated extensively on high-dimensional datasets and also with a real-world case study on impact crater detection. Experimental results demonstrate that the algorithms achieve better compactness and higher prediction accuracy than existing streaming feature selection algorithms.

  16. Inter-annual precipitation variabiity inferred from late Holocene speleothem records from Fiji: implications for SPCZ localisation and ENSO behaviour (United States)

    Mattey, D.; Stephens, M.; Hoffmann, D.; Brett, M.


    The modern tropical Fiji climate is characterised by seasonal rainfall controlled by the position of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). Interannual rainfall is strongly modulated on decadal timescales by ENSO with higher rainfall associated with La Nina events. Voli Voli cave near Sigatoga (Viti Levu) is a stream passage that has been monitored since 2009. A U-Th dated laminated speleothem spans a 1500 year interval across the transition from the Medieval Warm Period into the Little Ice Age marked by a fabric change from finely laminated calcite with thin clay layers, to white well-laminated calcite. The older record is characterised by rising δ13C values followed by a rapid decrease in δ13C around 1200 AD. Evidence from cave monitoring shows that cave air CO2 levels are strongly seasonal as a result of greater ventilation by winter trade winds and high resolution δ13C record shows regularly spaced peaks correlated with paired laminae and cycles in P and S which provide annual markers driven by rainfall and seasonal ventilation. δ18O values remain relatively unchanged throughout the record but micromilling at sub-annual resolution reveals systematic cycles in δ18O that span groups of paired laminae with an inferred periodicity of 3-7 years i.e. a similar frequency to modern ENSO. The presence of these sub-decadal cycles in δ18O may be a result of a combination of factors. The amplitude of 2-3‰ would be equivalent to an amount-effect related change in annual precipitation of around 50% but an additional smoothing process, perhaps a result of aquifer storage, is required to attenuate interannual variance in precipitation. The Voli Voli record provides evidence of an underlying climatic change to more frequent La Niña conditions from 1200 AD and may be associated with increased conflict, shifts in settlements and changes in subsistence strategies on the island. Coeval speleothem isotope records from tropical Pacific Islands provide a provide a

  17. Identifying significant environmental features using feature recognition. (United States)


    The Department of Environmental Analysis at the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet has expressed an interest in feature-recognition capability because it may help analysts identify environmentally sensitive features in the landscape, : including those r...

  18. An Analysis of the Energetics of Tropical and Extra-Tropical Regions for Warm ENSO Composite Episodes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zayra Christine Sátyro

    Full Text Available Abstract This study focuses on the quantification and evaluation of the effects of ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation warm phases, using a composite of five intense El Niño episodes between 1979 – 2011 on the Energetic Lorenz Cycle for four distinct regions around the globe: 80° S – 5° N (region 1, 50° S – 5° N (region 2, 30° S – 5° N (region 3, and 30° S – 30° N (region 4, using Data from NCEP reanalysis-II. Briefly, the results showed that zonal terms of potential energy and kinetic energy were intensified, except for region 1, where zonal kinetic energy weakened. Through the analysis of the period in which higher energy production is observed, a strong communication between the available zonal potential and the zonal kinetic energy reservoirs can be identified. This communication weakened the modes linked to eddies of potential energy and kinetic energy, as well as in the other two baroclinic conversions terms. Furthermore, the results indicate that for all the regions, the system itself works to regain its stable condition.

  19. Pengaruh ENSO (El Niño and Southern Oscillation terhadap transpor massa air laut di Selat Malaka

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)



    Full Text Available Abstrak. Penelitian ini mengkaji pengaruh ENSO (El Niño and Southern Oscillation di Selat Malaka dengan memakai indek osilasi selatan Samudera Pasifik dalam menentukan kondisi Normal, El Niño dan La Nina sebagai analisis transpor massa air laut, elevasi muka laut dan densitas laut. Metode penelitian menggunakan persamaan Navier-Stokes dengan gaya pembangkit pasang surut, angin dari National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP Tahun 1980-2007, Salinitas (Levitus dan Boyer, 1994a dan Temperatur (Levitus dan Boyer, 1994b. Persamaan gerak air laut tersebut dimodelkan dengan model Hamburg Shelf Ocean Model (HAMSOM. Hasil-hasil menunjukkan bahwa transpor di bagian barat laut Selat Malaka pergerakannya melemah dan transpor di bagian tenggara pergerakannya menguat dibandingkan pada kondisi tahun Normal dan La Nina. Sedangkan elevasi muka air di Selat Malaka pada kondisi tahun El Niño lebih rendah dibandingkan pada kondisi Normal dan La Nina. Selanjutnya densitas permukaan laut di Selat Malaka pada kondisi tahun Normal, El Niño dan La Nina berkisar 18,5 s/d 20,5 kg/m3. Densitas laut lapisan 30-50 m di Selat Malaka pada kondisi tahun Normal, El Niño dan La Nina berkisar 19 s/d 21 kg/m3. Densitas permukaan laut dan densitas laut kedalaman 30-50 m di bagian tenggara Selat Malaka pada kondisi El Niño lebih besar dibandingkan pada tahun Normal maupun tahun La Nina.

  20. Diversity in the representation of large-scale circulation associated with ENSO-Indian summer monsoon teleconnections in CMIP5 models (United States)

    Ramu, Dandi A.; Chowdary, Jasti S.; Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.; Kumar, O. S. R. U. B.


    Realistic simulation of large-scale circulation patterns associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is vital in coupled models in order to represent teleconnections to different regions of globe. The diversity in representing large-scale circulation patterns associated with ENSO-Indian summer monsoon (ISM) teleconnections in 23 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models is examined. CMIP5 models have been classified into three groups based on the correlation between Niño3.4 sea surface temperature (SST) index and ISM rainfall anomalies, models in group 1 (G1) overestimated El Niño-ISM teleconections and group 3 (G3) models underestimated it, whereas these teleconnections are better represented in group 2 (G2) models. Results show that in G1 models, El Niño-induced Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) SST anomalies are not well represented. Anomalous low-level anticyclonic circulation anomalies over the southeastern TIO and western subtropical northwest Pacific (WSNP) cyclonic circulation are shifted too far west to 60° E and 120° E, respectively. This bias in circulation patterns implies dry wind advection from extratropics/midlatitudes to Indian subcontinent. In addition to this, large-scale upper level convergence together with lower level divergence over ISM region corresponding to El Niño are stronger in G1 models than in observations. Thus, unrealistic shift in low-level circulation centers corroborated by upper level circulation changes are responsible for overestimation of ENSO-ISM teleconnections in G1 models. Warm Pacific SST anomalies associated with El Niño are shifted too far west in many G3 models unlike in the observations. Further large-scale circulation anomalies over the Pacific and ISM region are misrepresented during El Niño years in G3 models. Too strong upper-level convergence away from Indian subcontinent and too weak WSNP cyclonic circulation are prominent in most of G3 models in which ENSO-ISM teleconnections are

  1. The role of the intra-daily SST variability in the Indian monsoon variability and monsoon-ENSO-IOD relationships in a global coupled model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Terray, Pascal; Kamala, Kakitha; Masson, Sebastien; Madec, Gurvan [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, LOCEAN/IPSL, CNRS/IRD/UPMC/MNHN, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Sahai, A.K. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India); Luo, Jing-Jia; Yamagata, Toshio [RIGC, Yokohama (Japan)


    The impact of diurnal SST coupling and vertical oceanic resolution on the simulation of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and its relationships with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events are studied through the analysis of four integrations of a high resolution Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM), but with different configurations. The only differences between the four integrations are the frequency of coupling between the ocean and atmosphere for the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) parameter (2 vs. 24 h coupling) and/or the vertical oceanic resolution (31 vs. 301 levels) in the CGCM. Although the summer mean tropical climate is reasonably well captured with all the configurations of the CGCM and is not significantly modified by changing the frequency of SST coupling from once to twelve per day, the ISM-ENSO teleconnections are rather poorly simulated in the two simulations in which SST is exchanged only once per day, independently of the vertical oceanic resolution used in the CGCM. Surprisingly, when 2 h SST coupling is implemented in the CGCM, the ISM-ENSO teleconnection is better simulated, particularly, the complex lead-lag relationships between the two phenomena, in which a weak ISM occurs during the developing phase of an El Nino event in the Pacific, are closely resembling the observed ones. Evidence is presented to show that these improvements are related to changes in the characteristics of the model's El Nino which has a more realistic evolution in its developing and decaying phases, a stronger amplitude and a shift to lower frequencies when a 2-hourly SST coupling strategy is implemented without any significant changes in the basic state of the CGCM. As a consequence of these improvements in ENSO variability, the lead relationships between Indo-Pacific SSTs and ISM rainfall resemble the observed patterns more closely, the ISM-ENSO teleconnection is strengthened during boreal summer and ISM rainfall power spectrum

  2. Seasonal to Interannual Variability of Satellite-Based Precipitation Estimates in the Pacific Ocean Associated with ENSO from 1998 to 2014

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    Xueyan Hou


    Full Text Available Based on a widely used satellite precipitation product (TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis 3B43, we analyzed the spatiotemporal variability of precipitation over the Pacific Ocean for 1998–2014 at seasonal and interannual timescales, separately, using the conventional empirical orthogonal function (EOF and investigated the seasonal patterns associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO cycles using season-reliant empirical orthogonal function (SEOF analysis. Lagged correlation analysis was also applied to derive the lead/lag correlations of the first two SEOF modes for precipitation with Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO and two types of El Niño, i.e., central Pacific (CP El Niño and eastern Pacific (EP El Niño. We found that: (1 The first two seasonal EOF modes for precipitation represent the annual cycle of precipitation variations for the Pacific Ocean and the first interannual EOF mode shows the spatiotemporal variability associated with ENSO; (2 The first SEOF mode for precipitation is simultaneously associated with the development of El Niño and most likely coincides with CP El Niño. The second SEOF mode lagged behind ENSO by one year and is associated with post-El Niño years. PDO modulates precipitation variability significantly only when ENSO occurs by strengthening and prolonging the impacts of ENSO; (3 Seasonally evolving patterns of the first two SEOF modes represent the consecutive precipitation patterns associated with the entire development of EP El Niño and the following recovery year. The most significant variation occurs over the tropical Pacific, especially in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ and South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ; (4 Dry conditions in the western basin of the warm pool and wet conditions along the ITCZ and SPCZ bands during the mature phase of El Niño are associated with warm sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific, and a subtropical anticyclone dominating

  3. Correção do fluxo escolar: um balanço do programa acelera Brasil (1997-2000 Redressing student flows: results of programa acelera Brasil (1997-2000

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    João Batista Araujo e Oliveira


    Full Text Available A correção do fluxo escolar consiste no desafio inicial a ser superado para que o Brasil possa oferecer educação de qualidade para todos. Dos 35,7 milhões de alunos matriculados no ensino fundamental, no início do ano 2000, quase 20 milhões estavam com dois ou mais anos de atraso escolar, e, dentre esses, 9 milhões já tinham mais de 15 anos de idade. Este artigo apresenta, descreve e analisa resultados do Programa Acelera Brasil, desenvolvido em 24 municípios durante os anos 1997 a 2000. O programa envolveu quase 60 mil alunos em mais de 2.400 classes e teve como objetivo regularizar o fluxo escolar através da implementação de programas de alfabetização, programas de aceleração de aprendizagem e outras estratégias que visam assegurar os avanços obtidos. Embora as metas iniciais do programa de aprovar os alunos para a 5ª série e regularizar o fluxo escolar num prazo de quatro anos não tenham sido plenamente atingidas, os resultados obtidos sugerem uma taxa de sucesso que varia entre 70% e 90%, nos diferentes municípios. Do ponto de vista econômico, foram economizados mais de 50 milhões de reais, o que significa uma taxa de retorno superior a 300% do investimento. Os resultados obtidos permitiram a implementação maciça do programa em outros estados e municípios do país, com resultados semelhantes. O artigo conclui com uma discussão a respeito das contribuições desse programa para a formulação de políticas públicas consistentes para a correção do fluxo escolar.The paper analyses results of Programa Acelera Brasil implemented in 24 municipalities between 1997 and 2000. Over 60,000 students participated in more than 2400 classrooms. The main goal was to correct student flows through the implementation of literacy and acceleration programs for over-age students, as well as other strategies to sustain the results achieved. Even though the original targets to promote students to the 5th grade and correct the flow within 4 years were not fully attained, the results suggest a success rate varying from 70% to 90% in the different municipalities. From an economical perspective, over 50 million reais were saved, implying a threefold rate of return. The results obtained led to the massive implementation of the strategy in other states and municipalities, with similar results. The paper ends with a discussion about the contributions of Acelera Brasil to the formulation of consistent public policies to redress student flows.

  4. Trends of syphilis in Posadas city (Misiones State, Argentina, 1997-2000 Incidência de sífilis na cidade de Posadas (estado de Misiones, Argentina, 1997-2000

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    Ramón Alberto de Torres


    Full Text Available Objectives: Misiones State is situated in the north-east of Argentina. The main objective was to establish the evolution of syphilis in Posadas city (300.000 inhabitants from 1997 to 2000. Methods: Outpatients were studied at the STD clinics during 1997. Records of all pregnant women with babies due to the months of April to June, from 1997 to 2000 (n = 4700, were studied. Syphilis was confirmed by clinic, epidemiological and laboratory tests (VDRL and FTA-ABS. Results: Higher incidence of primary syphilis in outpatients was established among 15-19 year-old women and in 20-24 year-old men. The percentages of pregnant women with syphilis were 2.1% (1997, 2.6% (1998, 4.6% (1999 and 3.7% (2000. The most vulnerable age group was 15 to 19 year-old. Geographical distribution of cases changed from four clusters in 1997 to a wide occurrence in all city quarters with lower socioeconomic level (30% of population. Conclusion: Posadas city had an increase in cases of syphilis in pregnant women from 1997 to 1999. This evolution indicates that traditional STD-Aids programs have had no effect on safe sex practices, specially among adolescents. Home by home visits aimed at improving prenatal control as a priority, started in 1999. The incidence of the disease became stable in 2000, but still at a high rate. It is necessary to continue and improve the outreach activities. A cooperative program in these big "twin" cities: Encarnación (Paraguay and Posadas (Argentina - will be also of great help for syphilis control in the area.Objetivos: O estado de Misiones está situado no noroeste argentino, nas fronteiras oeste e norte com o Brasil e a leste do Paraguai. Este foi o interesse para estabelecer a evolução da sífilis na cidade de Posadas (300.000 habitantes, capital do estado de Misiones, desde 1997 até 2000. Métodos: A sífilis foi analisada por meio da avaliação epidemiológica, clínica e confirmação laboratorial (VDRL e FTA- ABS. Todas as mulheres grávidas no momento da evolução foram consultadas no hospital Madariaga, durante o período de abril a junho, de 1997 até 2000 (n = 4700, as quais foram incluídas nas análises. Resultados: A freqüência da sífilis em mulheres grávidas atendidas em hospital público foi de 2,1% (1997, 2,6% (1998, 4,6% (1999 e 3,7% (2000. A faixa etária de maior vulnerabilidade foi de 15 a 19 anos. A distribuição geográfica de casos originados de quatro grupos isolados em 1997 expandiu-se para uma grande ocorrência em todas as regiões de baixo nível de vida socioeconômico (30% do total da população. A sífilis congênita chegou a uma média de 10,8 casos por 1.000 crianças nascidas vivas nos últimos anos. Conclusão: A cidade de Posadas teve um aumento de sífilis em mulheres grávidas de 1997 até 1999. Esta situação endêmica indica que o programa convencional STD-Aids teve um efeito mínimo ou nulo sobre a prática do sexo, principalmente em grupos de adolescentes. Um programa de intervenção do alvo geográfico (visita casa por casa direcionado para prover controle pré-natal como prioridade teve início em 1999. Uma estabilização da sífilis em mulheres grávidas foi demonstrada em 2000, mas a incidência é ainda demasiadamente alta. Torna-se necessária a discussão de um programa de extensão regional que inclua a população binacional das grandes áreas povoadas.

  5. Volcanic Tephra ejected in south eastern Asia is the sole cause of all historic ENSO events. This natural aerosol plume has been intensified by an anthropogenic plume in the same region in recent decades which has intensified some ENSO events and altered the Southern Oscillation Index characteristics (United States)

    Potts, K. A.


    ENSO events are the most significant perturbation of the climate system. Previous attempts to link ENSO with volcanic eruptions typically failed because only large eruptions across the globe which eject tephra into the stratosphere were considered. I analyse all volcanic eruptions in South Eastern (SE) Asia (10ºS to 10ºN and from 90ºE to 160ºE) the most volcanically active area in the world with over 23% of all eruptions in the Global Volcanism Program database occurring here and with 5 volcanoes stated to have erupted nearly continuously for 30 years. SE Asia is also the region where the convective arm of the thermally direct Walker Circulation occurs driven by the intense equatorial solar radiation which creates the high surface temperature. The volcanic tephra plume intercepts some of the solar radiation by absorption/reflection which cools the surface and heats the atmosphere creating a temperature inversion compared to periods without the plume. This reduces convection and causes the Walker Cell and Trade Winds to weaken. This reduced wind speed causes the central Pacific Ocean to warm which creates convection there which further weakens the Walker Cell. With the reduced wind stress the western Pacific warm pool migrates east. This creates an ENSO event which continues until the tephra plume reduces, typically when the SE Asian monsoon commences, and convection is re-established over SE Asia and the Pacific warm pool migrates back to the west. Correlations of SE Asian tephra and the ENSO indices are typically over 0.80 at p indices. If two events A and B correlate 5 options are available: 1. A causes B; 2. B causes A; 3. C, another event, causes A &B simultaneously; 4. It's a coincidence; and 5. The relationship is complex with feedback. The volcanic correlations only allow options 1 or 4 as ENSO cannot cause volcanoes to erupt and are backed up by several independent satellite datasets. I conclude volcanic and anthropogenic aerosols over SE Asia are the

  6. Outcomes of very low birth weight infants in a newborn tertiary center in Turkey, 1997-2000. (United States)

    Atasay, Begüm; Günlemez, Ayla; Unal, Sevim; Arsan, Saadet


    Our purpose was to determine mortality and morbidity rates and selected outcome variables for infants weighing less than 1500 g, who were admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit of our hospital from 1997 to 2000. The ultimate goal of the study was to define a model for developing a regional database. Information on all very low birth weight (VLBW) admissions to a tertiary level neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) in Ankara between January 1997 and December 2000 was prospectively collected by three neonatologists using a standard manual of operation and definitions. The data consisted of patient information including sociodemographic characteristics; antenatal history; mode of delivery; APGAR scores; need for resuscitation; admission illness severity (Clinical Risk Index for Babies-CRIB) and therapeutic intensity (Neonatal Therapeutic Intensity Scoring System-NTISS); selected NICU parameters and procedures such as respiratory support, surfactant therapy, and postnatal corticosteroid therapy; and selected patient outcomes such as intraventricular hemorrhage, septicemia, necrotizing enterecolitis, retinopathy of prematurity, and chronic lung disease. The number of VLBW admissions to the NICU was 133, with 51 (28.6%) referrals from other maternity centers. The mean birth weight and gestational age of the infants were 1175 +/- 252 g and 30.3 +/- 2.9 weeks, respectively. One hundred and seventeen of 133 cases (88.7%) received at least one antenatal care visit. The median CRIB and NTISS scores were 4.5 and 31, respectively. Antenatal steroids had been given to 74 (55.6%) infants. Surfactant treatment and respiratory support were given to 33 (24.8%) and 73 (54.8%) infants, respectively. Among selected outcomes, chronic lung disease (CLD), threshold retinopathy of prematurity (ROP), severe intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH > or = grade III), nosocomial infection and necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) were encountered in 14 (12.6%), 9 (8.1%), 3 (2.2%), 34 (25.5%) and 35 (26.3%) of the infants, respectively. Overall survival rate was 83.5% (111/133); most of the deceased cases were under 750 g (12/22). It was prospectively shown that 111 (100%) of the surviving infants could be regularly followed in a newborn follow-up clinic to provide health maintenance, developmental assessment and support. Compared with reports from other developing countries, VLBW infants at our center had higher survival rates. Compared to developed countries, survival rate was lower, especially for extremely very low birth weight infants. There is interaction between birth weight and survival rate. Among selected neonatal outcomes, chronic lung disease, threshold retinopathy, severe intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH > or = grade III) and nosocomial infection rates at this center were comparable with some reports from developed nations.

  7. Diagnostic value of frozen section study for thyroid nodules in patients referred to Shariati Hospital 1997-2000

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    "Shirzad M


    Full Text Available Frozen section is a useful method in the diagnosis of different malignancies including those of thyroid origin. However, there are still controversies about its application, sensitivity and specificity for thyroid neoplasm. In this study, diagnostic value of frozen section (FS was compared with permanent histopathologic and Fine Needle Aspiration (FNA. In this study, which was conducted in process research method, permanent sample, FNA, and frozen section results in 214 patients was compared. All of these 214 patients had been seeking medical evaluation for thyroid nodules between years 1997 and 1999 in Shariati hospital. All pathologic evaluations were performed by pathology staff of this hospital. Permanent pathology was considered as the gold standard; so the specificity, sensitivity and diagnostic precision of FNA and FS were evaluated on the basis of its results. We use Macnemar test for this purpose. The number of patients during this period were 214 (160 women and 54 men. Mean age of our patients was 42.3±5.4 and their age ranged between 12 to 84 years. Pathologic results revealed that 163 of the patients (76 percent had benign lesions, and 51 of them (24 percent had malignant lesions. Thyroid malignancies comparised papillary carcinoma (70 percent, follicular carcinoma (13.5 percent, papilofollicular carcinoma (6 percent, medulary carcinoma (6 percent, Hurtle cell carcinoma (4 percent and anaplastic carcinoma (5 percent. FNA was done in all of the patients before surgery and was able to determine the status of nodules in 150 patients. Sensitivity, specificity and precision of FNA in these 150 patients were 72, 96 and 90 percents respectively. When FNA was unable to determine the status of a nodule (64 remaining patients, FS was applied to do the job. A sensitivity of 36 percent, specificity of 85 percent and precision of 73 percent was found in this group of patients. Macnemar test showed that there is no significant difference between FNA and FS methods. This study showed: when FNA is not conclusive, FS will not bring any further benefit. It seems that only in suspicious cases of papillary, undifferentiated and medulary carcinomas, FS can be useful in certifying the results of FNA and choosing the appropriate surgical plan. We should wait for permanent sample reports in the case of follicular or Hurtle cell carcinoma.

  8. Radiotracer technology as applied to industry. Final report of a co-ordinated research project 1997-2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    The Co-ordinated Research Project (CRP) on Radiotracer Technology for Engineering Unit Operation Studies and Unit Process Optimization was carried out by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) from December 1997 until December 2000. The project developed and validated procedures and protocols for investigation of major industrial processes, including fluidized beds, sugar crystallizers, trickle bed reactors, cement rotary kilns, flotation cells, grinding mills, incinerators, wastewater treatment units and interwell communications in oil fields. This publication is the output of the above mentioned CRP. It provides the principles and state of the art of radiotracer methodology and technology as applied to industry and environment. It is expected to provide wider interest for further development of skills and confidence prior to carrying out field work. It facilitates transfer of technology from developed to developing countries and from nuclear research institutions to industrial end users. The publication could be a suitable guide for radiotracer applications in almost all types of process investigations. The case studies described in this publication deal with typical problems in industry and environment common to all countries. It is intended for radiotracer groups as well as for end engineers and managers from chemical and petrochemical industries, mineral ore and raw material processing, wastewater treatment plants, and other industrial sectors

  9. ENSO regimes and the late 1970's climate shift: The role of synoptic weather and South Pacific ocean spiciness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Kane, Terence J.; Matear, Richard J.; Chamberlain, Matthew A.; Oke, Peter R.


    South Pacific subtropical density compensated temperature and salinity (spiciness) anomalies are known to be associated with decadal equatorial variability, however, the mechanisms by which such disturbances are generated, advect and the degree to which they modulate the equatorial thermocline remains controversial. During the late 1970's a climate regime transition preceded a period of strong and sustained El Nino events. Using an ocean general circulation model forced by the constituent mechanical and thermodynamic components of the reanalysed atmosphere we show that the late 1970's transition coincided with the arrival of a large-scale, subsurface cold and fresh water anomaly in the central tropical Pacific. An ocean reanalysis for the period 1990–2007 that assimilates subsurface Argo, XBT and CTD data, reveals that disturbances occur due to the subduction of negative surface salinity anomalies from near 30° S, 100° W which are advected along the σ=25–26 kgm −3 isopycnal surfaces. These anomalies take, on average, seven years to reach the central equatorial Pacific where they may substantially perturb the thermocline before the remnants ultimately ventilate in the region of the western Pacific warm pool. Positive (warm–salty) disturbances, known to occur due to late winter diapycnal mixing and isopycnal outcropping, arise due to both subduction of subtropical mode waters and subsurface injection. On reaching the equatorial band (10° S–0° S) these disturbances tend to deepen the thermocline reducing the model's ENSO. In contrast the emergence of negative (cold–fresh) disturbances at the equator are associated with a shoaling of the thermocline and El Nino events. Process studies are used to show that the generation and advection of anomalous density compensated thermocline disturbances critically depend on stochastic forcing of the intrinsic ocean by weather. We further show that in the absence of the inter-annual component of the atmosphere

  10. ITCZ and ENSO pacing on East Asian winter monsoon variation during the Holocene: Sedimentological evidence from the Okinawa Trough (United States)

    Zheng, Xufeng; Li, Anchun; Wan, Shiming; Kao, Shuhji; Kuhn, Gerhard


    Deep-sea fan sediments provide an excellent geological archive for paleoenvironment reconstruction. Grain size, clay mineral and elemental (Ti, Fe, Ca) compositions were measured for a core retrieved from a submarine fan in the Okinawa Trough. Varimax-rotated Principal Component Analysis (V-PCA) on time-evolution of grain size spectrum reveals that, since the Holocene, sediment was transported mainly by the benthic nepheloid layer (33%) and upper layers (33%) which is driven by the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). The intensification of the Kuroshio Current during the Holocene, masks the fluvial signal of the summer monsoon and obstructs clay minerals derived from the Yellow River, a major contributor prior to 12 ka BP. A new grain size index (GSI), which represents the EAWM well, exhibits a negative correlation with the δ18O record in Dongge Cave, China during the Holocene when sea level was relatively steady. This anticorrelation suggests the southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The consistency among our records and rainfall records in Peru, Ti counts in the Cariaco Basin, monsoon records in Oman and the averaged summer insolation pattern at 30°N further support the ITCZ's impact on monsoon systems globally. Cross-Correlation Analyses for GSI and log(Ti/Ca) against δ18O record in Dongge Cave reveal a decoupling between the East Asian winter and summer monsoon during 5500-2500 cal yr BP, with greater complexity in the last 2500 years. This can be attributed to exacerbated ENSO mode fluctuations and possibly anthropogenic interference superimposed on insolation and ITCZ forcing.

  11. A tale of ENSO, PDO, and increasing aridity impacts on drought-deciduous shrubs in the Death Valley region. (United States)

    Ehleringer, James R; Sandquist, Darren R


    Germination, establishment, phenology, and death among three drought-deciduous shrubs were influenced by ENSO/PDO and precipitation, based on 37 years of annual surveys. Encelia farinosa forms near monospecific stands on slopes, whereas E. frutescens and Ambrosia salsola dominate wash habitats. All shrubs exhibited phenological coherence. While germination, establishment, and mortality patterns were similar among wash species, these dynamics contrasted with E. farinosa on slopes. Germination was associated with El Niño years. Slope plant establishment was dependent on precipitation in the subsequent year, but not evidently so in wash species. Major mortality events were episodic, with Encelia mortality just as likely to occur in years with below or above average precipitation. In both Encelia species, mortality was associated with transitions to a cold PDO phase. In E. frutescens this response was more rapid, whereas in E. farinosa mortality lagged 1 year, resulting in contrasting slope-wash mortality patterns. 50% of newly established shrubs died within 5, 5, and 18 years for E. frutescens, E. farinosa, and A. salsola, respectively. The 90% mortality ages were 26 years for E. frutescens, 24 years for E. farinosa, and 51 years for A. salsola. While maximum life expectancies are unknown, estimated maximum life expectancies were 56, 66, and 86 years for E. frutescens, E. farinosa, and A. salsola, respectively. Overall, as the climate has become more arid over the past four decades, the populations in both slope and wash habitats have exhibited similar responses: reduced shrub abundances and reduced total supportable leaf areas.

  12. Historical Chronology of ENSO Events Based Upon Documentary Data From South America: Strengths and Limitations (United States)

    Luc, O.


    The first reconstructions of past El Niño occurrences were proposed by W. Quinn twenty years ago. They were based on documentary evidence of anomalous rainfall episodes, destructive floods and other possible impacts of El Niño conditions in Peru and other South-American countries. It has been shown, later, that the El Niño chronological sequence covering the last four and a half centuries produced by Quinn needed a thorough revision since many so-called EN events had not occurred while some others had been overlooked. Beside the classical methodological problems met in historical climatology studies (reliability of data, confidence in the sources, primary and secondary information), the reconstruction of former EN events faces specific difficulties dealing with the significance of the indicators and their spatial location. For instance, strong precipitation anomalies during summer in Southern Ecuador and northern Peru and precipitation excess recorded in the preceding winter in central Chile constitute quite reliable proxies of El Niño conditions, in modern times. However this observed teleconnection pattern, which is useful to reinforce the interpretation of past EN occurrences, seems to have been inoperative before the early nineteenth century. It is interpreted that atmospheric circulation features during the Little Ice Age interfered with the teleconnection system linking the EN impacts in northern Peru and central Chile. As a consequence, how should be evaluated the significance of documented winter precipitation excess in central Chile in years during which there is drought evidence in northern Peru, during the sixteenth to eighteenth century? And vice versa, are former evidences for precipitation excess in northern Peru (prior to the nineteenth century) quite reliable indicators for EN conditions, even if the preceding winter was dry in the Valparaiso-Santiago region? Other specific problems met in the building-up of a consolidated EN chronological

  13. Multi-year assimilation of IASI and MLS ozone retrievals: variability of tropospheric ozone over the tropics in response to ENSO (United States)

    Peiro, Hélène; Emili, Emanuele; Cariolle, Daniel; Barret, Brice; Le Flochmoën, Eric


    The Infrared Atmospheric Sounder Instrument (IASI) allows global coverage with very high spatial resolution and its measurements are promising for long-term ozone monitoring. In this study, Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) O3 profiles and IASI O3 partial columns (1013.25-345 hPa) are assimilated in a chemistry transport model to produce 6-hourly analyses of tropospheric ozone for 6 years (2008-2013). We have compared and evaluated the IASI-MLS analysis and the MLS analysis to assess the added value of IASI measurements. The global chemical transport model MOCAGE (MOdèle de Chimie Atmosphérique à Grande Echelle) has been used with a linear ozone chemistry scheme and meteorological forcing fields from ERA-Interim (ECMWF global reanalysis) with a horizontal resolution of 2° × 2° and 60 vertical levels. The MLS and IASI O3 retrievals have been assimilated with a 4-D variational algorithm to constrain stratospheric and tropospheric ozone respectively. The ozone analyses are validated against ozone soundings and tropospheric column ozone (TCO) from the OMI-MLS residual method. In addition, an Ozone ENSO Index (OEI) is computed from the analysis to validate the TCO variability during the ENSO events. We show that the assimilation of IASI reproduces the variability of tropospheric ozone well during the period under study. The variability deduced from the IASI-MLS analysis and the OMI-MLS measurements are similar for the period of study. The IASI-MLS analysis can reproduce the extreme oscillation of tropospheric ozone caused by ENSO events over the tropical Pacific Ocean, although a correction is required to reduce a constant bias present in the IASI-MLS analysis.

  14. Isotopic changes due to convective moistening of the lower troposphere associated with variations in the ENSO and IOD from 2005 to 2006

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    Jeonghoon Lee


    Full Text Available We use the tropospheric emission spectrometer measurements of the isotopic composition of water vapour (δD in the lower troposphere to examine how changes in the distribution of convection and precipitation control water vapour amount and its isotope over the Indian Ocean. Measurements of the outgoing longwave radiation and vertical velocity from NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis and cloud ice water content from the Microwave Limb Sounder show distinct variations in convection due to a phase shift of both El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD. These variations in convection are associated with changes in precipitation and water amount over the Western Indian Ocean (WIO and Eastern Indian Ocean (EIO, depending on the phases of ENSO and/or the IOD. Over the EIO in 2006, induced by the interplay of both positive ENSO and IOD, it is drier and less isotopically depleted due to less frequent and/or weaker deep convective activity and subsequent precipitation compared to 2005. By contrast, over the WIO in 2006, an increase in water vapour and precipitation but little isotopic fractionation in water vapour of clear sky compared to 2005 is likely associated with an increase in both enhanced deep and shallow convection, caused by the positive IOD. Therefore, paleoarchives of water isotopes near Africa will be more difficult to relate to a single process because changes in convective activity result in changes in precipitation but do not have a significant impact on the isotopic composition of the source vapour based on this case analysis.

  15. The IOD-ENSO precursory teleconnection over the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean: dynamics and long-term trends under global warming (United States)

    Yuan, Dongliang; Hu, Xiaoyue; Xu, Peng; Zhao, Xia; Masumoto, Yukio; Han, Weiqing


    The dynamics of the teleconnection between the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the tropical Indian Ocean and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean at the time lag of one year are investigated using lag correlations between the oceanic anomalies in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean in fall and those in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean in the following winter-fall seasons in the observations and in high-resolution global ocean model simulations. The lag correlations suggest that the IOD-forced interannual transport anomalies of the Indonesian Throughflow generate thermocline anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific Ocean, which propagate to the east to induce ocean-atmosphere coupled evolution leading to ENSO. In comparison, lag correlations between the surface zonal wind anomalies over the western equatorial Pacific in fall and the Indo-Pacific oceanic anomalies at time lags longer than a season are all insignificant, suggesting the short memory of the atmospheric bridge. A linear continuously stratified model is used to investigate the dynamics of the oceanic connection between the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. The experiments suggest that interannual equatorial Kelvin waves from the Indian Ocean propagate into the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the Makassar Strait and the eastern Indonesian seas with a penetration rate of about 10%-15% depending on the baroclinic modes. The IOD-ENSO teleconnection is found to get stronger in the past century or so. Diagnoses of the CMIP5 model simulations suggest that the increased teleconnection is associated with decreased Indonesian Throughflow transports in the recent century, which is found sensitive to the global warming forcing.

  16. Variation characteristics and influences of climate factors on aridity index and its association with AO and ENSO in northern China from 1961 to 2012 (United States)

    Zhang, Kexin; Qian, Xiaoqing; Liu, Puxing; Xu, Yihong; Cao, Liguo; Hao, Yongpei; Dai, Shengpei


    Analyses of the variation characteristics for aridity index (AI) can further enhance the understanding of climate change and have effect on hydrology and agriculture. In this paper, based on the data of 283 standard meteorological stations, the temporal-spatial variations and the influences of climate factors on AI were investigated and the relationship between AI and two climate indices (the Arctic Oscillation (AO); El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)) were also assessed in northern China (NC) during the period from 1961 to 2012. The results revealed that the annual mean AI decreased at the rate of -0.031 per decade in the past 52 years and the trend was statistically significant at the 0.01 level. The Mann-Kendall (M-K) test presented that the percentages of stations with positive trends and negative trends for AI were 10 and 81.9 % (22.6 % statistically significant), respectively. Spatially, in the western part of 100° E, the extremely dry area declined and the climate tended to become wet obviously. In the eastern part of 100° E, dry area moved toward the east and the south, which resulted in the enhancement of semiarid area and the shrinkage of subhumid area. The contributions of sunshine duration and precipitation to the decline of AI are more than those of other meteorological variables in NC. Moreover, the average temperature has risen significantly and AI decreased in NC, which indicated the existence of "paradox." Relationship between climate indices (AO and ENSO) and AI demonstrated that the influence of ENSO on AI overweight the AO on AI in NC.

  17. Inter-decadal modulation of ENSO teleconnections to the Indian Ocean in a coupled model: Special emphasis on decay phase of El Niño (United States)

    Chowdary, J. S.; Parekh, Anant; Gnanaseelan, C.; Sreenivas, P.


    Inter-decadal modulation of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections to tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) is investigated in the coupled general circulation model Climate Forecast System (CFS) using a hundred year integration. The model is able to capture the periodicity of El Niño variability, which is similar to that of the observations. The maximum TIO/north Indian Ocean (NIO) SST warming (during spring following the decay phase of El Niño) associated with El Niño is well captured by the model. Detailed analysis reveals that the surface heat flux variations mainly contribute to the El Niño forced TIO SST variations both in observations and model. However, spring warming is nearly stationary throughout the model integration period, indicating poor inter-decadal El Niño teleconnections. The observations on the other hand displayed maximum SST warming with strong seasonality from epoch to epoch. The model El Niño decay delayed by more than two seasons, results in persistent TIO/NIO SST warming through the following December unlike in the observations. The ocean wave adjustments and persistent westerly wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific are responsible for late decay of El Niño in the model. Consistent late decay of El Niño, throughout the model integration period (low variance), is mainly responsible for the poor inter-decadal ENSO teleconnections to TIO/NIO. This study deciphers that the model needs to produce El Niño decay phase variability correctly to obtain decadal-modulations in ENSO teleconnection.

  18. The leading mode of observed and CMIP5 ENSO-residual sea surface temperatures and associated changes in Indo-Pacific climate (United States)

    Funk, Christopher C.; Hoell. Andrew,


    SSTs in the western Pacific Ocean have tracked closely with CMIP5 simulations despite recent hiatus cooling in the eastern Pacific. This paper quantifies these similarities and associated circulation and precipitation variations using the first global 1900–2012 ENSO-residual empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of 35 variables: observed SSTs; 28 CMIP5 SST simulations; Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) 25-, 70-, and 171-m ocean temperatures and sea surface heights (SSHs); and Twentieth Century Reanalysis, version 2 (20CRv2), surface winds and precipitation.

  19. Wavelet analysis of interannual LOD, AAM, and ENSO: 1997-98 El Niño and 1998-99 La Niña signals (United States)

    Zhou, Y. H.; Zheng, D. W.; Liao, X. H.


    On the basis of the data series of the length of day (LOD), the atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for January 1970-June 1999, the relationship among Interannual LOD, AAM, and the EL Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is analyzed by the wavelet transform method. The results suggest that they have similar time-varying spectral structures. The signals of 1997-98 El Niño and 1998-99 La Niña events can be detected from the LOD or AAM data.

  20. Unsupervised Feature Subset Selection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søndberg-Madsen, Nicolaj; Thomsen, C.; Pena, Jose


    This paper studies filter and hybrid filter-wrapper feature subset selection for unsupervised learning (data clustering). We constrain the search for the best feature subset by scoring the dependence of every feature on the rest of the features, conjecturing that these scores discriminate some ir...... irrelevant features. We report experimental results on artificial and real data for unsupervised learning of naive Bayes models. Both the filter and hybrid approaches perform satisfactorily....

  1. The impact of the 2015-2016 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event on greenhouse gas exchange and surface energy budget in an Indonesian oil palm plantation (United States)

    Stiegler, C.; Meijide, A.; June, T.; Knohl, A.


    Oil palm plantations cover a large fraction of tropical lowlands in Southeast Asia. However, despite their growing areal extent, measurements and observations of greenhouse gas exchange and surface energy balance are still scarce. In addition, the effects of extreme events such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on carbon sequestration and the partitioning of surface energy balance components are widely unknown. In this study, we use micrometeorological measurements located in commercial oil palm plantations in the Jambi province (Sumatra, Indonesia) to assess the impact of the 2015-2016 ENSO event on greenhouse gas exchange and surface energy budget. Measurements are in operation since July 2013 and we assess continuously turbulent fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2), water vapour and sensible heat using the eddy covariance technique before, during and after the 2015-2016 ENSO event. The full surface energy budget is completed by measurements of radiative components, ground heat fluxes, and soil thermal and hydrological properties. The study is part of a large interdisciplinary project focussing on the ecological and socioeconomic functions of lowland rainforest transformation systems (EFForTS). During the ENSO event, the area experienced a strong drought with decreasing soil moisture and increasing air and surface temperatures. During the peak in September and October 2015, hundreds of fires in the area resulted in strong smoke production decreasing incoming solar radiation and increasing the diffuse fraction. Compared to regular years, the carbon uptake of the oil palm plantation decreased during the ENSO event. The turbulent heat fluxes experienced an increase in sensible heat fluxes due to drought conditions at the cost of latent heat fluxes resulting in an increase in the Bowen-ratio. Overall, the ENSO event resulted in a major anomaly of exchange processes between the oil palm plantation and the atmosphere.

  2. The impact of the 2015-2016 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event on greenhouse gas exchange and surface energy budget in an Indonesian oil palm plantation (United States)

    Stiegler, Christian; Meijide, Ana; June, Tania; Knohl, Alexander


    The 2015-2016 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event was one of the strongest observed in the last 20 years. Oil palm plantations cover a large fraction of tropical lowlands in Southeast Asia but despite their growing areal extent, measurements and observations of greenhouse gas exchange and surface energy balance are still scarce. In addition, the effects of extreme events such as ENSO on carbon sequestration and the partitioning of surface energy balance components are widely unknown. In this study, we use micrometeorological measurements located in commercial oil palm plantations in the Jambi province (Sumatra, Indonesia) to assess the impact of the 2015-2016 ENSO event and severe forest fires on greenhouse gas exchange and surface energy budget. Continuous measurements are in operation since July 2013 and we assess turbulent fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2), water vapour and sensible heat using the eddy covariance technique before, during and after the 2015-2016 ENSO event. In the beginning of the ENSO event, the area experienced a strong drought with decreasing soil moisture, increasing air and surface temperatures, and strong atmospheric vapour pressure deficit. During the peak of the drought from August to October 2015, hundreds of forest fires in the area resulted in strong smoke production, decreasing incoming solar radiation by 35% compared to pre-ENSO values and diffuse radiation became almost the sole shortwave radiation flux. During the beginning of the drought, carbon uptake of the oil palm plantation was around 2.1 gC m-2 d-1 and initially increased by 50% due to clear-sky conditions and high incoming photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) but increasing density of smoke turned the oil palm plantation into a source of carbon. The turbulent heat fluxes experienced an increase in sensible heat fluxes due to drought conditions at the cost of latent heat fluxes resulting in an increase in the midday Bowen-ratio from 0.17 to 0.40. Strong smoke

  3. Phenological patterns of Spodoptera Guenée, 1852 (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) is more affected by ENSO than seasonal factors and host plant availability in a Brazilian Savanna (United States)

    Piovesan, Mônica; Specht, Alexandre; Carneiro, Eduardo; Paula-Moraes, Silvana Vieira; Casagrande, Mirna Martins


    The identification of factors responsible for the population dynamics is fundamental for pest management, since losses can reach 18% of annual production. Besides regular seasonal environmental factors and crop managements, additional supra-annual meteorological phenomena can also affect population dynamics, although its relevance has been rarely investigated. Among crop pests, Spodoptera stands out due to its worldwide distribution, high degree of polyphagy, thus causing damages in several crops in the world. Aiming to distinguish the relevance of different factors shaping population dynamics of Spodoptera in an ecosystem constituted of dry and rainy seasons, the current study used circular statistics to identify phenological patterns and test if its population fluctuation is driven by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effect, seasonal meteorological parameters, and/or host plant availability. Samplings were done in an intercropping system, in the Brazilian Savanna, during the new moon cycles between July/2013 and June/2016. Species were recorded all year round, but demonstrated differently non-uniform distribution, being concentrated in different seasons of the year. Population fluctuations were mostly affected by the ENSO intensity, despite the contrasting seasonal meteorological variation or host plant availability in a 400-m radius. Studies involving the observation of supra-annual phenomena, although rare, reach similar conclusions in relation to Neotropical insect fauna. Therefore, it is paramount to have long-term sampling studies to obtain a more precise response of the pest populations towards the agroecosystem conditions.

  4. Diagnostic of annual cycle and effects of the ENSO about the maximum intensity of duration rains between 1 and 24 hours at the Andes of Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poveda, German; Mesa, Oscar; Toro, Vladimir; Agudelo, Paula; Alvarez, Juan F; Arias, Paola; Moreno, Hernan; Salazar, Luis; Vieira, Sara


    We study the distribution of maximum rainfall events during the annual cycle, for storms ranging from 1 to 24-hour in duration; by using information over 51 rain gauges locate at the Colombian Andes. Also, the effects of both phases of ENSO (El Nino and La Nina) are quantified. We found that maximum rainfall intensity events occur during the rainy periods of march-may and September-November. There is a strong similarity between the annual cycle of mean total rainfall and that of the maximum intensities of rainfall over the tropical Andes. This result is quite consistent throughout the three ranges of the Colombian Andes. At inter annual timescales, we found that both phases of ENSO are associated with disturbances of maximum rainfall events; since during La Nina there are more intense precipitation events than during El Nino, overall, for durations longer than 3 hours, rainfall intensity gets reduced by one order of magnitude with respect to shorter durations (1-3 hours). The most extreme recorded rainfall events are apparently not associated with the annual and inter annual large scales forcing and appear to be randomly generated by the important role of the land surface atmosphere in the genesis and dynamics of intense storm over central Colombia

  5. Verification of an ENSO-Based Long-Range Prediction of Anomalous Weather Conditions During the Vancouver 2010 Olympics and Paralympics (United States)

    Mo, Ruping; Joe, Paul I.; Doyle, Chris; Whitfield, Paul H.


    A brief review of the anomalous weather conditions during the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games and the efforts to predict these anomalies based on some preceding El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signals are presented. It is shown that the Olympic Games were held under extraordinarily warm conditions in February 2010, with monthly mean temperature anomalies of +2.2 °C in Vancouver and +2.8 °C in Whistler, ranking respectively as the highest and the second highest in the past 30 years (1981-2010). The warm conditions continued, but became less anomalous, in March 2010 for the Paralympic Games. While the precipitation amounts in the area remained near normal through this winter, the lack of snow due to warm conditions created numerous media headlines and practical problems for the alpine competitions. A statistical model was developed on the premise that February and March temperatures in the Vancouver area could be predicted using an ENSO signal with considerable lead time. This model successfully predicted the warmer-than-normal, lower-snowfall conditions for the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics and Paralympics.

  6. Influencia del fenómeno ENSO sobre la precipitación nival en el sector andino de Chile central durante el invierno

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)


    Full Text Available INFLUENCE DU PHÉNOMÈNE ENSO SUR LES PRÉCIPITATIONS NEIGEUSES DANS LE CENTRE DU CHILI ANDIN AU COURS DE L’HIVER AUSTRAL. On analyse l’influence du phénomène El Niño/Oscillation du Sud (ENSO sur les précipitations nivales dans les Andes du Chili central au cours de l’hiver. Pour cela, on a utilisé l’information obtenue sur des sites spécifiques (routes de neige situées entre 30° et 38° S et les anomalies de Température de Surface de la Mer (TSM du bloc Niño 3, comme indicateur de l’importance des événements chauds ou froids dans le Pacifique équatorial central. Au nord de 35°S, l’accumulation de neige tend à être supérieure à la normale quand l’anomalie moyenne de TSM dépasse +1°C au cours de la période mai-août. Dans ce même secteur, on enregistre une précipitation inférieure à la normale les hivers caractérisés par une anomalie de TSM inférieure à -0,5°C. Dans la zone située au sud de 35° S, l’influence du phénomène ENSO sur l’accumulation de neige n’est plus significative. Se analiza la influencia del fenómeno El Niño/Oscilación del Sur (ENSO sobre la precipitación nival en los Andes de Chile central durante el invierno. Para esto, se utiliza información de rutas de nieve localizadas entre 30° y 38° S, y de anomalías de temperatura superficial del mar (TSM en la región Niño 3 como un indicador de la magnitud de los eventos cálidos y fríos en el Pacífico ecuatorial central. En la región al norte de 35° S, la acumulación de nieve durante el invierno tiende a ser superior a lo normal cuando la magnitud de la anomalía media de TSM en el periodo mayo-agosto supera +1,0° C. En este mismo sector se verifica que durante los inviernos caracterizados por una anomalía de TSM inferior a -0,5° C, suele registrarse una precipitación nival inferior a lo normal. En el sector al sur de los 35° S, la influencia del fenómeno ENSO sobre la acumulación de nieve durante el invierno no es

  7. Feature Selection by Reordering

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Jiřina, Marcel; Jiřina jr., M.


    Roč. 2, č. 1 (2005), s. 155-161 ISSN 1738-6438 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : feature selection * data reduction * ordering of features Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics

  8. Screening for Plant Features

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heijden, van der G.W.A.M.; Polder, G.


    In this chapter, an overview of different plant features is given, from (sub)cellular to canopy level. A myriad of methods is available to measure these features using image analysis, and often, multiple methods can be used to measure the same feature. Several criteria are listed for choosing a

  9. The role of ENSO in determining the emission, the speciation and the resulting fate of Hg from Biomass Burning, a lesson from the recent past (United States)

    De Simone, F.; Hedgecock, I. M.; Cinnirella, S.; Carbone, F.; Sprovieri, F.; Pirrone, N.


    The burning of vegetation is an environmental process that impacts the chemical composition of troposphere on a global scale, and has significant consequences on atmospheric pollution and climate. ENSO influences the alternating patterns of drier and wetter periods in almost all continents, therefore causing a rise in, and varying the timing of, fire activity in numerous regions and ecosystems (Le Page et al). A large amount of legacy Hg is currently buffered in different environmental compartments, including soil and vegetation, due to past and current anthropogenic processes and activities. Biomass Burning (BB) is a major source of atmospheric Hg, and a main driver in recycling this legacy Hg which is eventually re-deposited over land and oceans. Hg from BB is emitted mainly as Hg(0)(g), but a large fraction (up to 30% and more) is released as Hg bound to particulate matter, Hg(p), which is more likely to be deposited close to the fire activity (De Simone et al). Thus, speciation is one of the most important factors in determining the redistribution of Hg, and of the subsequent geographical distribution of its atmospheric deposition. Although the drivers controlling speciation remain uncertain, there is evidence that it depends on burn characteristics and fuel moisture content, which depends on the climatological characteristics of the regions where BB occurs (Obrist et al). The areas where atmospheric Hg is deposited depends ultimately on atmospheric transport, transformation and precipitation patterns, hence the fate of Hg emitted from BB is determined by a complex series of interacting processes and mechanisms, which begin with the release of Hg and continue until deposition. Many of these processes are influenced by ENSO. This modeling study analyses the deposition of Hg from BB using different satellite imagery based products, spanning a number of years, characterized by different ENSO regimes, to evaluate how it impacts BB, the speciation of emitted Hg, and

  10. Response of O2 and pH to ENSO in the California Current System in a high-resolution global climate model (United States)

    Turi, Giuliana; Alexander, Michael; Lovenduski, Nicole S.; Capotondi, Antonietta; Scott, James; Stock, Charles; Dunne, John; John, Jasmin; Jacox, Michael


    Coastal upwelling systems, such as the California Current System (CalCS), naturally experience a wide range of O2 concentrations and pH values due to the seasonality of upwelling. Nonetheless, changes in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have been shown to measurably affect the biogeochemical and physical properties of coastal upwelling regions. In this study, we use a novel, high-resolution global climate model (GFDL-ESM2.6) to investigate the influence of warm and cold ENSO events on variations in the O2 concentration and the pH of the CalCS coastal waters. An assessment of the CalCS response to six El Niño and seven La Niña events in ESM2.6 reveals significant variations in the response between events. However, these variations overlay a consistent physical and biogeochemical (O2 and pH) response in the composite mean. Focusing on the mean response, our results demonstrate that O2 and pH are affected rather differently in the euphotic zone above ˜ 100 m. The strongest O2 response reaches up to several hundreds of kilometers offshore, whereas the pH signal occurs only within a ˜ 100 km wide band along the coast. By splitting the changes in O2 and pH into individual physical and biogeochemical components that are affected by ENSO variability, we found that O2 variability in the surface ocean is primarily driven by changes in surface temperature that affect the O2 solubility. In contrast, surface pH changes are predominantly driven by changes in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), which in turn is affected by upwelling, explaining the confined nature of the pH signal close to the coast. Below ˜ 100 m, we find conditions with anomalously low O2 and pH, and by extension also anomalously low aragonite saturation, during La Niña. This result is consistent with findings from previous studies and highlights the stress that the CalCS ecosystem could periodically undergo in addition to impacts due to climate change.

  11. Hydro-climatic variability over the Andes of Colombia associated with ENSO: a review of climatic processes and their impact on one of the Earth's most important biodiversity hotspots (United States)

    Poveda, Germán; Álvarez, Diana M.; Rueda, Óscar A.


    The hydro-climatic variability of the Colombian Andes associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is reviewed using records of rainfall, river discharges, soil moisture, and a vegetation index (NDVI) as a surrogate for evapotranspiration. Anomalies in the components of the surface water balance during both phases of ENSO are quantified in terms of their sign, timing, and magnitude. During El Niño (La Niña), the region experiences negative (positive) anomalies in rainfall, river discharges (average and extremes), soil moisture, and NDVI. ENSO's effects are phase-locked to the seasonal cycle, being stronger during December-February, and weaker during March-May. Besides, rainfall and river discharges anomalies show that the ENSO signal exhibits a westerly wave-like propagation, being stronger (weaker) and earlier (later) over the western (eastern) Andes. Soil moisture anomalies are land-cover type dependant, but overall they are enhanced by ENSO, showing very low values during El Niño (mainly during dry seasons), but saturation values during La Niña. A suite of large-scale and regional mechanisms cooperating at the ocean-atmosphere-land system are reviewed to explaining the identified hydro-climatic anomalies. This review contributes to an understanding of the hydro-climatic framework of a region identified as the most critical hotspot for biodiversity on Earth, and constitutes a wake-up call for scientists and policy-makers alike, to take actions and mobilize resources and minds to prevent the further destruction of the region's valuable hydrologic and biodiversity resources and ecosystems. It also sheds lights towards the implementation of strategies and adaptation plans to coping with threats from global environmental change.

  12. Hydro-climatic variability over the Andes of Colombia associated with ENSO: a review of climatic processes and their impact on one of the Earth's most important biodiversity hotspots

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poveda, German; Alvarez, Diana M. [Universidad Nacional de Colombia, School of Geosciences and Environment, Medellin (Colombia); Rueda, Oscar A. [Universidad Nacional de Colombia, School of Geosciences and Environment, Medellin (Colombia); Grupo HTM, Medellin (Colombia)


    The hydro-climatic variability of the Colombian Andes associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is reviewed using records of rainfall, river discharges, soil moisture, and a vegetation index (NDVI) as a surrogate for evapotranspiration. Anomalies in the components of the surface water balance during both phases of ENSO are quantified in terms of their sign, timing, and magnitude. During El Nino (La Nina), the region experiences negative (positive) anomalies in rainfall, river discharges (average and extremes), soil moisture, and NDVI. ENSO's effects are phase-locked to the seasonal cycle, being stronger during December-February, and weaker during March-May. Besides, rainfall and river discharges anomalies show that the ENSO signal exhibits a westerly wave-like propagation, being stronger (weaker) and earlier (later) over the western (eastern) Andes. Soil moisture anomalies are land-cover type dependant, but overall they are enhanced by ENSO, showing very low values during El Nino (mainly during dry seasons), but saturation values during La Nina. A suite of large-scale and regional mechanisms cooperating at the ocean-atmosphere-land system are reviewed to explaining the identified hydro-climatic anomalies. This review contributes to an understanding of the hydro-climatic framework of a region identified as the most critical hotspot for biodiversity on Earth, and constitutes a wake-up call for scientists and policy-makers alike, to take actions and mobilize resources and minds to prevent the further destruction of the region's valuable hydrologic and biodiversity resources and ecosystems. It also sheds lights towards the implementation of strategies and adaptation plans to coping with threats from global environmental change. (orig.)

  13. Volcanic features of Io

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carr, M.H.; Masursky, H.; Strom, R.G.; Terrile, R.J.


    The volcanic features of Io as detected during the Voyager mission are discussed. The volcanic activity is apparently higher than on any other body in the Solar System. Its volcanic landforms are compared with features on Earth to indicate the type of volcanism present on Io. (U.K.)

  14. Evaporation/SST Sensitivity Over the Tropical Oceans During ENSO Events as Estimated from the da Silva, Young, Levitus Surface Marine Data Set (United States)

    Robertson, F. R.; Fitzjarrald, D. E.; Sohn, B.-J.; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)


    The da Silva, Young and Levitus Surface Marine Atlas, based on observations from the Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) Release 1, has been used to investigate the relationship between evaporation and sea-surface temperature (SST) over the global oceans. For the period 1950 to 1987 SST, surface latent heat flux, and other related variables have been filtered to minimize data uncertainties and to focus upon interannual variations associated with warm (El Nino) and cold (La Nina) ENSO events. Compositing procedures have enabled identification of systematic variations in latent heat fluxes accompanying these events and the relationship to spatial anomalies in ocean surface wind speed and humidity. The evaporation response associated with ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) variability is systematic in nature and composed of offsetting contributions from the surface wind and humidity variations. During warm events exceeding 1.0 S.D. delta SST, increases in the surface humidity deficit, delta(qs-qa), between the surface and 2m height dominate regions of positive SST anomalies and lead to increases in evaporation of almost 2 Wm (exp -2) at deltaSST = 0.23 K. Despite the increases in specific humidity, relative humidity decreases slightly in regions of elevated SSTs. For the most part, variations in wind speed are consistent with previous investigations. Weakening of the equatorial easterlies (and generation of westerlies) between 160 degrees E and 140 degrees W dominates during the early phases of warm events. Elevated wind speeds in adjacent subtropical regions and in the eastern equatorial Pacific subsequently develop too. The net contribution of these winds, which reflect adjustments in Hadley and Walker circulation components is toward reduced evaporation. Results for cold periods are approximately similar, but opposite in sign to warm events, though evidence of different temporal evolution is noted.

  15. Spatial and seasonal responses of precipitation in the Ganges and Brahmaputra river basins to ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole modes: implications for flooding and drought (United States)

    Pervez, M. S.; Henebry, G. M.


    We evaluated the spatial and temporal responses of precipitation in the basins as modulated by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean (IO) dipole modes using observed precipitation records at 43 stations across the Ganges and Brahmaputra basins from 1982 to 2010. Daily observed precipitation records were extracted from Global Surface Summary of the Day dataset and spatial and monthly anomalies were computed. The anomalies were averaged for the years influenced by climate modes combinations. Occurrences of El Niño alone significantly reduced (60% and 88% of baseline in the Ganges and Brahmaputra basins, respectively) precipitation during the monsoon months in the northwestern and central Ganges basin and across the Brahmaputra basin. In contrast, co-occurrence of La Niña and a positive IO dipole mode significantly enhanced (135% and 160% of baseline, respectively) precipitation across both basins. During the co-occurrence of neutral phases in both climate modes (occurring 13 out of 28 yr), precipitation remained below average to average in the agriculturally extensive areas of Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, eastern Nepal, and the Rajshahi district in Bangladesh in the Ganges basin and northern Bangladesh, Meghalaya, Assam, and Arunachal Pradesh in the Brahmaputra basin. This pattern implies that a regular water deficit is likely in these areas with implications for the agriculture sector due to its reliance on consistent rainfall for successful production. Major flooding and drought occurred as a consequence of the interactive effects of the ENSO and IO dipole modes, with the sole exception of extreme precipitation and flooding during El Niño events. This observational analysis will facilitate well informed decision making in minimizing natural hazard risks and climate impacts on agriculture, and supports development of strategies ensuring optimized use of water resources in best management practice under changing climate.

  16. Midwest agriculture and ENSO: A comparison of AVHRR NDVI3g data and crop yields in the United States Corn Belt from 1982 to 2014 (United States)

    Glennie, Erin; Anyamba, Assaf


    A time series of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data were compared to National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) corn yield data in the United States Corn Belt from 1982 to 2014. The main objectives of the comparison were to assess 1) the consistency of regional Corn Belt responses to El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection signals, and 2) the reliability of using NDVI as an indicator of crop yield. Regional NDVI values were used to model a seasonal curve and to define the growing season - May to October. Seasonal conditions in each county were represented by NDVI and land surface temperature (LST) composites, and corn yield was represented by average annual bushels produced per acre. Correlation analysis between the NDVI, LST, corn yield, and equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies revealed patterns in land surface dynamics and corn yield, as well as typical impacts of ENSO episodes. It was observed from the study that growing seasons coincident with La Niña events were consistently warmer, but El Niño events did not consistently impact NDVI, temperature, or corn yield data. Moreover, the El Niño and La Niña composite images suggest that impacts vary spatially across the Corn Belt. While corn is the dominant crop in the region, some inconsistencies between corn yield and NDVI may be attributed to soy crops and other background interference. The overall correlation between the total growing season NDVI anomaly and detrended corn yield was 0.61(p = 0.00013), though the strength of the relationship varies across the Corn Belt.

  17. ENSO, nest predation risk, food abundance, and male status fail to explain annual variations in the apparent survival rate of a migratory songbird.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alizée Vernouillet

    Full Text Available Adult mortality can be a major driver of population decline in species whose productivity is relatively low. Yet, little is known about the factors influencing adult survival rates in migratory bird species, nor do we know much about the longer-term effects of habitat disturbance on the fitness of individuals. The Ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapilla is one of the vertebrate species most sensitive to forest management, yet it is still common and widespread. We monitored the fate of 330 colour-banded Ovenbird males in four pairs of 25-ha plots during 9 successive breeding seasons. One plot of each pair was treated through selection harvesting (30-40% basal area removed during the first winter. We tested the following hypotheses: (1 higher physiological costs in harvested plots as a result of lower food abundance will reduce apparent survival rate (ASR relative to controls; (2 lower ASR following years with low nest survival and higher probability of renesting; (3 fluctuations in ASR reflecting El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO; and (4 higher ASR in returning males than in recruits (unbanded immigrants owing to greater site familiarity in the former. We tested the relative importance of these hypotheses, or combinations thereof, by generating 23 models explaining variation in ASR. The year-dependent model received the most support, showing a 41% decrease in ASR from 2007 to 2014. The important year-to-year variation we observed in ASR (Σw(i = 0.99 was not explained by variation in nest predation risk nor by ENSO. There was also little evidence for an effect of selection harvesting on ASR of Ovenbird males, despite a slight reduction in lifespan relative to males from control plots (2.7 vs 2.9 years. An avenue worth exploring to explain this intriguing pattern would be to determine whether conditions at migratory stopover sites or in the wintering area of our focal population have gradually worsened over the past decade.

  18. Re-evaluating the resource potential of lomas fog oasis environments for Preceramic hunter-gatherers under past ENSO modes on the south coast of Peru (United States)

    Beresford-Jones, David; Pullen, Alexander G.; Whaley, Oliver Q.; Moat, Justin; Chauca, George; Cadwallader, Lauren; Arce, Susana; Orellana, Alfonso; Alarcón, Carmela; Gorriti, Manuel; Maita, Patricia K.; Sturt, Fraser; Dupeyron, Agathe; Huaman, Oliver; Lane, Kevin J.; French, Charles


    Lomas - ephemeral seasonal oases sustained by ocean fogs - were critical to ancient human ecology on the desert Pacific coast of Peru: one of humanity's few independent hearths of agriculture and "pristine" civilisation. The role of climate change since the Late Pleistocene in determining productivity and extent of past lomas ecosystems has been much debated. Here we reassess the resource potential of the poorly studied lomas of the south coast of Peru during the long Middle Pre-ceramic period (c. 8000-4500 BP): a period critical in the transition to agriculture, the onset of modern El Niño Southern Oscillation ('ENSO') conditions, and eustatic sea-level rise and stabilisation and beach progradation. Our method combines vegetation survey and herbarium collection with archaeological survey and excavation to make inferences about both Preceramic hunter-gatherer ecology and the changed palaeoenvironments in which it took place. Our analysis of newly discovered archaeological sites - and their resource context - show how lomas formations defined human ecology until the end of the Middle Preceramic Period, thereby corroborating recent reconstructions of ENSO history based on other data. Together, these suggest that a five millennia period of significantly colder seas on the south coast induced conditions of abundance and seasonal predictability in lomas and maritime ecosystems, that enabled Middle Preceramic hunter-gatherers to reduce mobility by settling in strategic locations at the confluence of multiple eco-zones at the river estuaries. Here the foundations of agriculture lay in a Broad Spectrum Revolution that unfolded, not through population pressure in deteriorating environments, but rather as an outcome of resource abundance.

  19. JCE Feature Columns (United States)

    Holmes, Jon L.


    The Features area of JCE Online is now readily accessible through a single click from our home page. In the Features area each column is linked to its own home page. These column home pages also have links to them from the online Journal Table of Contents pages or from any article published as part of that feature column. Using these links you can easily find abstracts of additional articles that are related by topic. Of course, JCE Online+ subscribers are then just one click away from the entire article. Finding related articles is easy because each feature column "site" contains links to the online abstracts of all the articles that have appeared in the column. In addition, you can find the mission statement for the column and the email link to the column editor that I mentioned above. At the discretion of its editor, a feature column site may contain additional resources. As an example, the Chemical Information Instructor column edited by Arleen Somerville will have a periodically updated bibliography of resources for teaching and using chemical information. Due to the increase in the number of these resources available on the WWW, it only makes sense to publish this information online so that you can get to these resources with a simple click of the mouse. We expect that there will soon be additional information and resources at several other feature column sites. Following in the footsteps of the Chemical Information Instructor, up-to-date bibliographies and links to related online resources can be made available. We hope to extend the online component of our feature columns with moderated online discussion forums. If you have a suggestion for an online resource you would like to see included, let the feature editor or JCE Online ( know about it. JCE Internet Features JCE Internet also has several feature columns: Chemical Education Resource Shelf, Conceptual Questions and Challenge Problems, Equipment Buyers Guide, Hal's Picks, Mathcad

  20. New features in MEDM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evans, K. Jr.


    MEDM, which is derived from Motif Editor and Display Manager, is the primary graphical interface to the EPICS control system. This paper describes new features that have been added to MEDM in the last two years. These features include new editing capabilities, a PV Info dialog box, a means of specifying limits and precision, a new implementation of the Cartesian Plot, new features for several objects, new capability for the Related Display, help, a user-configurable Execute Menu, reconfigured start-up options, and availability for Windows 95/98/NT. Over one hundred bugs have been fixed, and the program is quite stable and in extensive use

  1. Abdominal cocoon: sonographic features. (United States)

    Vijayaraghavan, S Boopathy; Palanivelu, Chinnusamy; Sendhilkumar, Karuppusamy; Parthasarathi, Ramakrishnan


    An abdominal cocoon is a rare condition in which the small bowel is encased in a membrane. The diagnosis is usually established at surgery. Here we describe the sonographic features of this condition.

  2. Mesoblastic nephroma: Pathological features

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    N.M. El-Badawy

    determined mainly by its histologic type, we found it worthwhile to elaborate more on the gross and microscopic features of ... behavior of mesoblastic nephroma is determined mainly by its his- .... However, it exhibits a nodular growth pattern at.

  3. Feature Binding in Zebrafish

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P Neri


    Full Text Available Binding operations are primarily ascribed to cortex or similarly complex avian structures. My experiments show that the zebrafish, a lower vertebrate lacking cortex, supports visual feature binding of form and motion for the purpose of social behavior. These results challenge the notion that feature binding may require highly evolved neural structures and demonstrate that the nervous system of lower vertebrates can afford unexpectedly complex computations.

  4. Personality Features of Motorists

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrej Justinek


    Full Text Available Justinek tries to answer the question whether or not motorists have specific personality features which predispose them for safe and well-mannered driving. A good driver should have sensory abilities which enable psycho-motor coordiation of a vehicle, intellectual and cognitive features that are important for solving problems in new, unknown situations, and emotional and motivational trails defining a driver's maturity. Justmek advocates the belief that in training future drivers greater attention should be paid to developing these features which are vital for safe driving and appropriate behaviour of drivers in traffic. He also suggests certain learning methods leading to development of the above­ mentioned personality traits. Justinek introduces the notion of the 'philosophy of driving' as an essential educational category in training future drivers.

  5. Feature displacement interpolation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Mads; Andresen, Per Rønsholt


    Given a sparse set of feature matches, we want to compute an interpolated dense displacement map. The application may be stereo disparity computation, flow computation, or non-rigid medical registration. Also estimation of missing image data, may be phrased in this framework. Since the features...... often are very sparse, the interpolation model becomes crucial. We show that a maximum likelihood estimation based on the covariance properties (Kriging) show properties more expedient than methods such as Gaussian interpolation or Tikhonov regularizations, also including scale......-selection. The computational complexities are identical. We apply the maximum likelihood interpolation to growth analysis of the mandibular bone. Here, the features used are the crest-lines of the object surface....

  6. Engineering features of ISX

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lousteau, D.C.; Jernigan, T.C.; Schaffer, M.J.; Hussung, R.O.


    ISX, an Impurity Study Experiment, is presently being designed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory as a joint scientific effort between ORNL and General Atomic Company. ISX is a moderate size tokamak dedicated to the study of impurity production, diffusion, and control. The significant engineering features of this device are discussed

  7. The relative importance of ENSO and tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies for seasonal precipitation over South America: a numerical study (United States)

    Pezzi, L. P.; Cavalcanti, I. F. A.

    The role of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies during ENSO episodes over northeast Brazil (Nordeste) is investigated using the CPTEC/COLA Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM). Four sets of integrations are performed using SST in El Niño and La Niña (ENSO) episodes, changing the SST of the Atlantic Ocean. A positive dipole (SST higher than normal in the tropical North Atlantic and below normal in the tropical South Atlantic) and a negative dipole (opposite conditions), are set as the boundary conditions of SST in the Atlantic Ocean. The four experiments are performed using El Niño or La Niña SST in all oceans, except in the tropical Atlantic where the two phases of the SST dipole are applied. Five initial conditions were integrated in each case in order to obtain four ensemble results. The positive SST dipole over the tropical Atlantic Ocean and El Niño conditions over the Pacific Ocean resulted in dry conditions over the Nordeste. When the negative dipole and El Niño conditions over the Pacific Ocean were applied, the results showed precipitation above normal over the north of Nordeste. When La Niña conditions over Pacific Ocean were tested together with a negative dipole, positive precipitation anomalies occurred over the whole Nordeste. Using the positive dipole over the tropical Atlantic, the precipitation over Nordeste was below average. During La Niña episodes, the Atlantic Ocean conditions have a larger effect on the precipitation of Nordeste than the Pacific Ocean. In El Niño conditions, only the north region of Nordeste is affected by the Atlantic SST. Other tropical areas of South America show a change only in the intensity of anomalies. Central and southeast regions of South America are affected by the Atlantic conditions only during La Niña conditions, whereas during El Niño these regions are influenced only by conditions in the Pacific Ocean.

  8. Hydrological cycle effects on the aquatic community in a Neotropical stream of the Andean piedmont during the 2007-2010 ENSO events. (United States)

    Ríos-Pulgarín, M I; Barletta, M; Mancera-Rodriguez, N J


    The seasonal and interannual changes in the fish, macroinvertebrates and phycoperiphyton assemblages of the Guarinó River were examined in relation to the physical and chemical environmental changes associated with the hydrological cycle and the El Niño-Niña/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) between 2007 and 2010. Four samplings (in dry and rainy seasons) were performed per year. Environmental variables (temperature, pH, conductivity, turbidity, oxygen, total nitrogen, orthophosphate, depth and flow rate) were measured. The temporal patterns of the taxonomic compositions for the three assemblages and the functional composition of fish and macroinvertebrate assemblages with respect to environmental variables were examined through canonical discriminant analysis, multidimensional scaling and multiple correlations. The presence and abundance of fishes, macroinvertebrates and algae species were regulated by environmental variables associated with extreme hydrological events, which derived from the natural torrential regimen of the basin and larger-scale phenomena, such as El Niño and La Niña. Fish abundance and richness were significantly correlated with algal density and pH, the macroinvertebrate density was negatively related to the flow rate and the richness was positively correlated with algal density. The algae richness was positively correlated with pH and negatively correlated with the flow rate and nitrogen. The algal density was positively correlated with pH and temperature and negatively correlated with river flow. The phycoperiphyton assemblage exhibited more direct responses in its density and richness to the hydrological changes (r(2) = 0·743 and 0·800, respectively). In functional terms, the El Niño phenomenon was defined by a greater abundance of omnivorous and insectivorous fishes, as well as filter feeders, scrapers and macroinvertebrate predators. During La Niña, a greater abundance of benthic fishes (both detritivorous and insectivorous) and

  9. A 600 k.y. record of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Evidence for persisting teleconnections during the Middle Eocene greenhouse climate of Central Europe (United States)

    Lenz, Olaf K.; Wilde, Volker; Riegel, Walter; Harms, Franz-Juergen


    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a globally important factor in today's climate dynamics. Annually laminated oil shales from the maar lake of Messel (Germany) provide high-resolution sedimentological and paleoenvironmental data of a time interval of ˜600 k.y. during the Eocene greenhouse phase. Individual laminae consist of a light spring and summer algal layer (Tetraedron minimum layer) and a dark winter layer composed of terrigenous background sediment. Four sections were selected from the core of the Messel 2001 well in order to count varves and to measure total varve thickness and the thickess of light and dark laminae. Spectral analyses were done in order to detect possible cyclic fluctuations in varve thickness. Fluctuations are significant in the quasi-biennial (2.1-2.5 yr) and low-frequency band (2.8-3.5 yr, 4.9-5.6 yr), thus showing that algal growth as well as the background sedimentation were controlled by ENSO effects at least over a time interval of 600 k.y. This confirms the existence of a previously postulated robust Eocene ENSO. Significant peaks within a quasi-decadal (10-11 yr), interdecadal (17-26 yr), and multidecadal band (˜52 yr, ˜82 yr) show either the enduring influence of more or less cyclic instabilities or the influence of solar cycles.

  10. MRI features of chondroblastoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheng Xiaoguang; Liu Xia; Cheng Kebin; Liu Wei


    Objective: To evaluate the MR imaging features of chondroblastoma. Methods: MRI examinations of 20 patients with histological proven chondmblastoma were reviewed retrospectively. The MRI findings of chondroblastoma including the signal intensity, the shape, the growth patterns, and the surrounding bone marrow edema and the adjacent soft tissue edema, the periosteal reaction, the adjacent joint effusion were analyzed. Results: All 20 cases demonstrated heterogeneous MR signal intensity on T 1 WI and T 2 WI images and showed lobular margins. Sixteen cases demonstrated expansive growth patterns. Surrounding bone marrow edema was found in 18 cases and adjacent soft tissue edema in 14 cases. Periosteal reaction was identified in 6 cases. In 7 cases the tumor extended to adjacent soft tissue. Adjacent joint effusion was visible on MRI in 6 cases. Conclusion: Heterogeneous signal intensity, lobular margins and expansive growth pattern, adjacent bone marrow and soft tissue edema were the common features of chondroblastoma on MRI. (authors)

  11. Imaging features of thalassemia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tunaci, M.; Tunaci, A.; Engin, G.; Oezkorkmaz, B.; Acunas, G.; Acunas, B. [Dept. of Radiology, Istanbul Univ. (Turkey); Dincol, G. [Dept. of Internal Medicine, Istanbul Univ. (Turkey)


    Thalassemia is a kind of chronic, inherited, microcytic anemia characterized by defective hemoglobin synthesis and ineffective erythropoiesis. In all thalassemias clinical features that result from anemia, transfusional, and absorptive iron overload are similar but vary in severity. The radiographic features of {beta}-thalassemia are due in large part to marrow hyperplasia. Markedly expanded marrow space lead to various skeletal manifestations including spine, skull, facial bones, and ribs. Extramedullary hematopoiesis (ExmH), hemosiderosis, and cholelithiasis are among the non-skeletal manifestations of thalassemia. The skeletal X-ray findings show characteristics of chronic overactivity of the marrow. In this article both skeletal and non-skeletal manifestations of thalassemia are discussed with an overview of X-ray findings, including MRI and CT findings. (orig.)

  12. Imaging features of thalassemia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tunaci, M.; Tunaci, A.; Engin, G.; Oezkorkmaz, B.; Acunas, G.; Acunas, B.; Dincol, G.


    Thalassemia is a kind of chronic, inherited, microcytic anemia characterized by defective hemoglobin synthesis and ineffective erythropoiesis. In all thalassemias clinical features that result from anemia, transfusional, and absorptive iron overload are similar but vary in severity. The radiographic features of β-thalassemia are due in large part to marrow hyperplasia. Markedly expanded marrow space lead to various skeletal manifestations including spine, skull, facial bones, and ribs. Extramedullary hematopoiesis (ExmH), hemosiderosis, and cholelithiasis are among the non-skeletal manifestations of thalassemia. The skeletal X-ray findings show characteristics of chronic overactivity of the marrow. In this article both skeletal and non-skeletal manifestations of thalassemia are discussed with an overview of X-ray findings, including MRI and CT findings. (orig.)

  13. Model Checking Feature Interactions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Le Guilly, Thibaut; Olsen, Petur; Pedersen, Thomas


    This paper presents an offline approach to analyzing feature interactions in embedded systems. The approach consists of a systematic process to gather the necessary information about system components and their models. The model is first specified in terms of predicates, before being refined to t...... to timed automata. The consistency of the model is verified at different development stages, and the correct linkage between the predicates and their semantic model is checked. The approach is illustrated on a use case from home automation....

  14. A comparison of sea surface salinity in the equatorial Pacific Ocean during the 1997-1998, 2012-2013, and 2014-2015 ENSO events (United States)

    Corbett, Caroline M.; Subrahmanyam, Bulusu; Giese, Benjamin S.


    Sea surface salinity (SSS) variability during the 1997-1998 El Niño event and the failed 2012-2013 and 2014-2015 El Niño events is explored using a combination of observations and ocean reanalyses. Previously, studies have mainly focused on the sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height (SSH) variability. This analysis utilizes salinity data from Argo and the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) reanalysis to examine the SSS variability. Advective processes and evaporation minus precipitation (E-P) variability is understood to influence SSS variability. Using surface wind, surface current, evaporation, and precipitation data, we analyze the causes for the observed SSS variability during each event. Barrier layer thickness and upper level salt content are also examined in connection to subsurface salinity variability. Both advective processes and E-P variability are important during the generation and onset of a successful El Niño, while a lack of one or both of these processes leads to a failed ENSO event.

  15. Features of MCNP6

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goorley, T.; James, M.; Booth, T.; Brown, F.; Bull, J.; Cox, L.J.; Durkee, J.; Elson, J.; Fensin, M.; Forster, R.A.; Hendricks, J.; Hughes, H.G.; Johns, R.; Kiedrowski, B.; Martz, R.; Mashnik, S.; McKinney, G.; Pelowitz, D.; Prael, R.; Sweezy, J.


    Highlights: • MCNP6 is simply and accurately described as the merger of MCNP5 and MCNPX capabilities, but it is much more than the sum of these two computer codes. • MCNP6 is the result of six years of effort by the MCNP5 and MCNPX code development teams. • These groups of people, residing in Los Alamos National Laboratory’s X Computational Physics Division, Monte Carlo Codes Group (XCP-3) and Nuclear Engineering and Nonproliferation Division, Radiation Transport Modeling Team (NEN-5) respectively, have combined their code development efforts to produce the next evolution of MCNP. • While maintenance and major bug fixes will continue for MCNP5 1.60 and MCNPX 2.7.0 for upcoming years, new code development capabilities only will be developed and released in MCNP6. • In fact, the initial release of MCNP6 contains numerous new features not previously found in either code. • These new features are summarized in this document. • Packaged with MCNP6 is also the new production release of the ENDF/B-VII.1 nuclear data files usable by MCNP. • The high quality of the overall merged code, usefulness of these new features, along with the desire in the user community to start using the merged code, have led us to make the first MCNP6 production release: MCNP6 version 1. • High confidence in the MCNP6 code is based on its performance with the verification and validation test suites, comparisons to its predecessor codes, our automated nightly software debugger tests, the underlying high quality nuclear and atomic databases, and significant testing by many beta testers. - Abstract: MCNP6 can be described as the merger of MCNP5 and MCNPX capabilities, but it is much more than the sum of these two computer codes. MCNP6 is the result of six years of effort by the MCNP5 and MCNPX code development teams. These groups of people, residing in Los Alamos National Laboratory’s X Computational Physics Division, Monte Carlo Codes Group (XCP-3) and Nuclear Engineering and

  16. Pulmonary vasculitis: imaging features

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seo, Joon Beom; Im, Jung Gi; Chung, Jin Wook; Goo, Jin Mo; Park, Jae Hyung; Yeon, Kyung Mo; Song, Jae Woo


    Vasculitis is defined as an inflammatory process involving blood vessels, and can lead to destruction of the vascular wall and ischemic damage to the organs supplied by these vessels. The lung is commonly affected. A number of attempts have been made to classify and organize pulmonary vasculitis, but because the clinical manifestations and pathologic features of the condition overlap considerably, these afforts have failed to achieve a consensus. We classified pulmonary vasculitis as belonging to either the angitiis-granulomatosis group, the diffuse pulmonary hemorrhage with capillaritis group, or 'other'. Characteristic radiographic and CT findings of the different types of pulmonary vasculitis are illustrated, with a brief discussion of the respective disease entities

  17. Onychomatricoma with misleading features. (United States)

    Fayol, J; Baran, R; Perrin, C; Labrousse, F


    Onychomatricoma is a rare tumour of the nail matrix with peculiar clinical and histological features and electron microscopic findings. We report on 5 cases with appearances which were misleading. Three presented as longitudinal melanonychia, a previously unreported observation. One case had the appearance of a cutaneous horn. In 3 of the 5 cases the tumour was associated with an onychomycosis and this may thus have been a predisposing factor in the secondary fungal infestation. Onychomatricoma appears as a multi-faceted tumour which can be mimicked by longitudinal melanonychia and/or onychomycosis.

  18. Mobius syndrome: MRI features

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Markarian, Maria F.; Villarroel, Gonzalo M.; Nagel, Jorge R.


    Purpose: Mobius Syndrome or congenital facial diplegia is associated with paralysis of the lateral gaze movements. This syndrome may include other cranial nerve palsies and be associated to musculoskeletal anomalies. Our objective is to show the MRI findings in Mobius Syndrome. Material and methods: MRI study was performed in 3 patients with clinic diagnosis of Mobius Syndrome. RMI (1.5T); exams included axial FSE (T1 and T2), FLAIR, SE/EPI, GRE/20, sagittal FSE T2 , coronal T1, diffusion, angio MRI and Spectroscopy sequences. Results: The common features of this syndrome found in MRI were: depression or straightening of the floor of the fourth ventricle, brainstem anteroposterior diameter diminution, morphologic alteration of the pons and medulla oblongata and of the hypoglossal nuclei as well as severe micrognathia. Conclusion: The morphologic alterations of Mobius Syndrome can be clearly identified by MRI; this method has proved to be a useful diagnostic examination. (author)

  19. Odontogenic keratocyst radiographic features

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nartey, N. O.; Saini, T.


    The clinical features often patients with odontogenic keratocysts were studied. One patient had Gorlin-GoJtz syndrome. A total of fourteen radiolucent lesions were observed on radiographic examination. All the fourteen lesions were diagnosed as odontogenic keratocyst after histopathclogical examination of biopsied tissue from the patients. The age at diagnosis ranged from 25-72 years with a mean age of 37.6 years. The male : female ratio was 2.3:1. Thirteen of these lesions occurred in the mandible, nine involved the mandibular third molar region. Involvement of the ramus of the mandible produced a sausage-shaped radiolucency. Cystic lesions which have been present for long periods of time showed scalloped margins, due to the regional resorption of the surrounding bone. The bony ledges present on the cortical bones simulated multilocular appearance in such cases. It was also observed that the lesions in older individuals perforated the cortical plates rather than eliciting a periostally induced bony expansion. (author)

  20. Proctographic features of anismus. (United States)

    Halligan, S; Bartram, C I; Park, H J; Kamm, M A


    To document the proctographic features of anismus at evacuation proctography and determine the optimum radiologic measurements for diagnosis. Twenty-four patients with anismus according to clinical and multiple physiologic criteria were examined with evacuation proctography. Structural and functional measurements were compared with those of a group of 20 asymptomatic subjects. No significant difference between patients and control subjects was found with respect to pelvic descent, rectocele, or any anorectal angle measurement. In patients with anismus, initiation of evacuation was prolonged (median, 9 vs 3 seconds for control subjects; P anismus should be abandoned. Patients with anismus demonstrate delayed initiation of evacuation, which is also prolonged and incomplete. Incomplete evacuation after 30 seconds is highly suggestive of anismus.

  1. Multispectral Image Feature Points

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristhian Aguilera


    Full Text Available This paper presents a novel feature point descriptor for the multispectral image case: Far-Infrared and Visible Spectrum images. It allows matching interest points on images of the same scene but acquired in different spectral bands. Initially, points of interest are detected on both images through a SIFT-like based scale space representation. Then, these points are characterized using an Edge Oriented Histogram (EOH descriptor. Finally, points of interest from multispectral images are matched by finding nearest couples using the information from the descriptor. The provided experimental results and comparisons with similar methods show both the validity of the proposed approach as well as the improvements it offers with respect to the current state-of-the-art.

  2. More features, greater connectivity. (United States)

    Hunt, Sarah


    Changes in our political infrastructure, the continuing frailties of our economy, and a stark growth in population, have greatly impacted upon the perceived stability of the NHS. Healthcare teams have had to adapt to these changes, and so too have the technologies upon which they rely to deliver first-class patient care. Here Sarah Hunt, marketing co-ordinator at Aid Call, assesses how the changing healthcare environment has affected one of its fundamental technologies - the nurse call system, argues the case for wireless such systems in terms of what the company claims is greater adaptability to changing needs, and considers the ever-wider range of features and functions available from today's nurse call equipment, particularly via connectivity with both mobile devices, and ancillaries ranging from enuresis sensors to staff attack alert 'badges'.

  3. European Nuclear Features

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barre, B.; Gonzalez, E.; Diaz Diaz, J.L.; Jimenez, J.L.; Velarde, G.; Navarro, J.M.; Hittner, D.; Dominguez, M.T.; Bollini, G.; Martin, A.; Suarez, J.; Traini, E.; Lang-Lenton, J.


    ''European Nuclear Features - ENF'' is a joint publication of the three specialized technical journals, Nuclear Espana (Spain), Revue General Nucleaire (France), and atw - International Journal of Nuclear Power (Germany). The ENF support the international Europeen exchange of information and news about energy and nuclear power. News items, comments, and scientific and technical contributions will cover important aspects of the field. The second issue of ENF contains contributions about theses topics, among others: Institutional and Political Changes in the EU. - CIEMAT Department of Nuclear Fission: A General Overview. - Inertial Fusion Energy at DENIM. - High Temperature Reactors. European Research Programme. - On Site Assistance to Khmelnitsky NPP 1 and 2 (Ukraine). - Dismantling and Decommissioning of Vandellos I. (orig.)

  4. Abdominal tuberculosis: Imaging features

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pereira, Jose M. [Department of Radiology, Hospital de S. Joao, Porto (Portugal)]. E-mail:; Madureira, Antonio J. [Department of Radiology, Hospital de S. Joao, Porto (Portugal); Vieira, Alberto [Department of Radiology, Hospital de S. Joao, Porto (Portugal); Ramos, Isabel [Department of Radiology, Hospital de S. Joao, Porto (Portugal)


    Radiological findings of abdominal tuberculosis can mimic those of many different diseases. A high level of suspicion is required, especially in high-risk population. In this article, we will describe barium studies, ultrasound (US) and computed tomography (CT) findings of abdominal tuberculosis (TB), with emphasis in the latest. We will illustrate CT findings that can help in the diagnosis of abdominal tuberculosis and describe imaging features that differentiate it from other inflammatory and neoplastic diseases, particularly lymphoma and Crohn's disease. As tuberculosis can affect any organ in the abdomen, emphasis is placed to ileocecal involvement, lymphadenopathy, peritonitis and solid organ disease (liver, spleen and pancreas). A positive culture or hystologic analysis of biopsy is still required in many patients for definitive diagnosis. Learning objectives:1.To review the relevant pathophysiology of abdominal tuberculosis. 2.Illustrate CT findings that can help in the diagnosis.

  5. Abdominal tuberculosis: Imaging features

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pereira, Jose M.; Madureira, Antonio J.; Vieira, Alberto; Ramos, Isabel


    Radiological findings of abdominal tuberculosis can mimic those of many different diseases. A high level of suspicion is required, especially in high-risk population. In this article, we will describe barium studies, ultrasound (US) and computed tomography (CT) findings of abdominal tuberculosis (TB), with emphasis in the latest. We will illustrate CT findings that can help in the diagnosis of abdominal tuberculosis and describe imaging features that differentiate it from other inflammatory and neoplastic diseases, particularly lymphoma and Crohn's disease. As tuberculosis can affect any organ in the abdomen, emphasis is placed to ileocecal involvement, lymphadenopathy, peritonitis and solid organ disease (liver, spleen and pancreas). A positive culture or hystologic analysis of biopsy is still required in many patients for definitive diagnosis. Learning objectives:1.To review the relevant pathophysiology of abdominal tuberculosis. 2.Illustrate CT findings that can help in the diagnosis

  6. Incidencia del fenómeno ENSO en la hidroclimatología del valle del río Cauca-Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)


    Full Text Available IMPACT DU PHÉNOMÈNE ENSO SUR L’HYDROCLIMATOLOGIE DU RIO CAUCA-COLOMBIE. On présente dans cet article quelques unes des manifestations du phénomène et leur impact sur la pénurie des ressources en eau dans la vallée du rio Cauca, au cours des périodes sèches ainsi que les crues et inondations, provoquées par les périodes excédentaires. L’évaluation de valeurs extrêmes des débits des rivières montre des différences liées à l’occurrence d’un El Niño. En présence d’un El Niño, les débits maximums seront plus forts et les débits d’étiages plus faibles. Au cours de ces périodes, on observe donc une augmentation du risque d’inondation au cours de la saison des pluies, alors que la quantité d’eau diminue au cours des périodes sèches avec un risque accru d’incendie de forêt. En este trabajo, se presentan algunas de las manifestaciones del Fenómeno y el impacto que ocasiona en la disponibilidad hídrica del Valle del Cauca durante la fase Cálida (Niño, por efecto del déficit hídrico, y durante la fase fría (AntiNiño o Niña por exceso de lluvias. La evaluación de los caudales mínimos de los ríos del Valle del Río Cauca, se asocia con los años de ocurrencia de la fase cálida, mientras los caudales medios máximos se asocian a períodos de ocurrencia de la fase fría (AntiNiño o Niña. Durante el Niño se presentan sequías, incendios forestales, pérdidas de cultivos, de perecederos, disminución de la pesca, incremento de enfermedades y racionamiento de energía, mientras que durante la Niña se presentan mayores riesgos de inundación, desbordamientos, desastres, erosión y destrucción de la infraestructura vial e hidráulica. INCIDENCE OF ENSO PHENOMENON IN THE HYDROCLIMATOLOGY OF THE RÍO CAUCA VALLEY-COLOMBIA. In this paper, the impacts of the El Niño and La Niña o AntiNiño phenomena on the water resources of the Valle del Cauca (Colombia are considered low flows in the rivers are associated with

  7. The influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles on wave-driven sea-floor sediment mobility along the central California continental margin (United States)

    Storlazzi, Curt D.; Reid, Jane A.


    Ocean surface waves are the dominant temporally and spatially variable process influencing sea floor sediment resuspension along most continental shelves. Wave-induced sediment mobility on the continental shelf and upper continental slope off central California for different phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events was modeled using monthly statistics derived from more than 14 years of concurrent hourly oceanographic and meteorologic data as boundary input for the Delft SWAN wave model, gridded sea floor grain-size data from the usSEABED database, and regional bathymetry. Differences as small as 0.5 m in wave height, 1 s in wave period, and 10° in wave direction, in conjunction with the spatially heterogeneous unconsolidated sea-floor sedimentary cover, result in significant changes in the predicted mobility of continental shelf surficial sediment in the study area. El Niño events result in more frequent mobilization on the inner shelf in the summer and winter than during La Niña events and on the outer shelf and upper slope in the winter months, while La Niña events result in more frequent mobilization on the mid-shelf during spring and summer months than during El Niño events. The timing and patterns of seabed mobility are addressed in context of geologic and biologic processes. By understanding the spatial and temporal variability in the disturbance of the sea floor, scientists can better interpret sedimentary patterns and ecosystem structure, while providing managers and planners an understanding of natural impacts when considering the permitting of offshore activities that disturb the sea floor such as trawling, dredging, and the emplacement of sea-floor engineering structures.

  8. Geochemistry of coral from Papua New Guinea as a proxy for ENSO ocean-atmosphere interactions in the Pacific Warm Pool (United States)

    Ayliffe, Linda K.; Bird, Michael I.; Gagan, Michael K.; Isdale, Peter J.; Scott-Gagan, Heather; Parker, Bruce; Griffin, David; Nongkas, Michael; McCulloch, Malcolm T.


    A Porites sp. coral growing offshore from the Sepik and Ramu Rivers in equatorial northern Papua New Guinea has yielded an accurate 20-year history (1977-1996) of sea surface temperature (SST), river discharge, and wind-induced mixing of the upper water column. Depressions in average SSTs of about 0.5-1.0 °C (indicated by coral Sr/Ca) and markedly diminished freshwater runoff to the coastal ocean (indicated by coral δ18O, δ13C and UV fluorescence) are evident during the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events of 1982-1983, 1987 and 1991-1993. The perturbations recorded by the coral are in good agreement with changes in instrumental SST and river discharge/precipitation records, which are known to be diagnostic of the response of the Pacific Warm Pool ocean-atmosphere system to El Niño. Consideration of coastal ocean dynamics indicates that the establishment of northwest monsoon winds promotes mixing of near-surface waters to greater depths in the first quarter of most years, making the coral record sensitive to changes in the Asian-Australian monsoon cycle. Sudden cooling of SSTs by ˜1°C following westerly wind episodes, as indicated by the coral Sr/Ca, is consistent with greater mixing in the upper water column at these times. Furthermore, the coral UV fluorescence and oxygen isotope data indicate minimal contribution of river runoff to surface ocean waters at the beginning of most years, during the time of maximum discharge. This abrupt shift in flood-plume behaviour appears to reflect the duration and magnitude of northwest monsoon winds, which tend to disperse flood plume waters to a greater extent in the water column when wind-mixing is enhanced. Our results suggest that a multi-proxy geochemical approach to the production of long coral records should provide comprehensive reconstructions of tropical paleoclimate processes operating on interannual timescales.

  9. Dependency Parsing with Transformed Feature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fuxiang Wu


    Full Text Available Dependency parsing is an important subtask of natural language processing. In this paper, we propose an embedding feature transforming method for graph-based parsing, transform-based parsing, which directly utilizes the inner similarity of the features to extract information from all feature strings including the un-indexed strings and alleviate the feature sparse problem. The model transforms the extracted features to transformed features via applying a feature weight matrix, which consists of similarities between the feature strings. Since the matrix is usually rank-deficient because of similar feature strings, it would influence the strength of constraints. However, it is proven that the duplicate transformed features do not degrade the optimization algorithm: the margin infused relaxed algorithm. Moreover, this problem can be alleviated by reducing the number of the nearest transformed features of a feature. In addition, to further improve the parsing accuracy, a fusion parser is introduced to integrate transformed and original features. Our experiments verify that both transform-based and fusion parser improve the parsing accuracy compared to the corresponding feature-based parser.

  10. A prototype feature system for feature retrieval using relationships (United States)

    Choi, J.; Usery, E.L.


    Using a feature data model, geographic phenomena can be represented effectively by integrating space, theme, and time. This paper extends and implements a feature data model that supports query and visualization of geographic features using their non-spatial and temporal relationships. A prototype feature-oriented geographic information system (FOGIS) is then developed and storage of features named Feature Database is designed. Buildings from the U.S. Marine Corps Base, Camp Lejeune, North Carolina and subways in Chicago, Illinois are used to test the developed system. The results of the applications show the strength of the feature data model and the developed system 'FOGIS' when they utilize non-spatial and temporal relationships in order to retrieve and visualize individual features.

  11. Rhabdomyolysis featuring muscular dystrophies. (United States)

    Lahoria, Rajat; Milone, Margherita


    Rhabdomyolysis is a potentially life threatening condition of various etiology. The association between rhabdomyolysis and muscular dystrophies is under-recognized in clinical practice. To identify muscular dystrophies presenting with rhabdomyolysis at onset or as predominant feature. We retrospectively reviewed clinical and laboratory data of patients with a genetically confirmed muscular dystrophy in whom rhabdomyolysis was the presenting or main clinical manifestation. Thirteen unrelated patients (males=6; females=7) were identified. Median age at time of rhabdomyolysis was 18 years (range, 2-47) and median duration between the first episode of rhabdomyolysis and molecular diagnosis was 2 years. Fukutin-related protein (FKRP) muscular dystrophy (n=6) was the most common diagnosis, followed by anoctaminopathy-5 (n=3), calpainopathy-3 (n=2) and dystrophinopathy (n=2). Four patients experienced recurrent rhabdomyolysis. Eight patients were asymptomatic and 3 reported myalgia and exercise intolerance prior to the rhabdomyolysis. Exercise (n=6) and fever (n=4) were common triggers; rhabdomyolysis was unprovoked in 3 patients. Twelve patients required hospitalization. Baseline CK levels were elevated in all patients (median 1200 IU/L; range, 600-3600). Muscular dystrophies can present with rhabdomyolysis; FKRP mutations are particularly frequent in causing such complication. A persistently elevated CK level in patients with rhabdomyolysis warrants consideration for underlying muscular dystrophy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Localized scleroderma: imaging features

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, P.; Uziel, Y.; Chuang, S.; Silverman, E.; Krafchik, B.; Laxer, R.


    Localized scleroderma is distinct from the diffuse form of scleroderma and does not show Raynaud's phenomenon and visceral involvement. The imaging features in 23 patients ranging from 2 to 17 years of age (mean 11.1 years) were reviewed. Leg length discrepancy and muscle atrophy were the most common findings (five patients), with two patients also showing modelling deformity of the fibula. One patient with lower extremity involvement showed abnormal bone marrow signals on MR. Disabling joint contracture requiring orthopedic intervention was noted in one patient. In two patients with ''en coup de sabre'' facial deformity, CT and MR scans revealed intracranial calcifications and white matter abnormality in the ipsilateral frontal lobes, with one also showing migrational abnormality. In a third patient, CT revealed white matter abnormality in the ipsilateral parietal lobe. In one patient with progressive facial hemiatrophy, CT and MR scans showed the underlying hypoplastic left maxillary antrum and cheek. Imaging studies of areas of clinical concern revealed positive findings in half our patients. (orig.)

  13. Localized scleroderma: imaging features

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, P. (Dept. of Diagnostic Imaging, Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, ON (Canada)); Uziel, Y. (Div. of Rheumatology, Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, ON (Canada)); Chuang, S. (Dept. of Diagnostic Imaging, Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, ON (Canada)); Silverman, E. (Div. of Rheumatology, Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, ON (Canada)); Krafchik, B. (Div. of Dermatology, Dept. of Pediatrics, Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, ON (Canada)); Laxer, R. (Div. of Rheumatology, Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, ON (Canada))


    Localized scleroderma is distinct from the diffuse form of scleroderma and does not show Raynaud's phenomenon and visceral involvement. The imaging features in 23 patients ranging from 2 to 17 years of age (mean 11.1 years) were reviewed. Leg length discrepancy and muscle atrophy were the most common findings (five patients), with two patients also showing modelling deformity of the fibula. One patient with lower extremity involvement showed abnormal bone marrow signals on MR. Disabling joint contracture requiring orthopedic intervention was noted in one patient. In two patients with ''en coup de sabre'' facial deformity, CT and MR scans revealed intracranial calcifications and white matter abnormality in the ipsilateral frontal lobes, with one also showing migrational abnormality. In a third patient, CT revealed white matter abnormality in the ipsilateral parietal lobe. In one patient with progressive facial hemiatrophy, CT and MR scans showed the underlying hypoplastic left maxillary antrum and cheek. Imaging studies of areas of clinical concern revealed positive findings in half our patients. (orig.)

  14. Impacto del ENOS sobre los rendimientos de maíz en la región pampeana argentina Impact of the ENSO on corn yields in the Argentinean pampas region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. E. Fernández Long


    Full Text Available El fenómeno de “El Niño - Oscilación del Sur” (ENOS es uno de los principales responsables de la variabilidad climática interanual, con influencia sobre la región pampeana argentina. El objetivo de este trabajo fue analizar el impacto del ENOS sobre las variaciones anuales de la producción de maíz. La región fue dividida en 10 zonas en las cuales los rendimientos tienen una variabilidad interanual homogénea. Se utilizaron diferentes índices del ENOS. Los resultados indicaron que, en la mayor parte de la región, los desvíos de los rendimientos son, en general, positivos durante eventos “El Niño” y negativos durante “La Niña”. Sin embargo, el impacto es muy fuerte al norte y centro de la región analizada, y se debilita hacia el sur. En el sudeste de la provincia de Buenos Aires el comportamiento es diferente que en el resto. Los índices promediados de mayo a julio son, en general, un buen indicador de la influencia del ENOS sobre la productividad de los cultivos, y brindan una adecuada información para la toma de decisiones de la empresa agropecuaria, con suficiente anticipación respecto del comienzo de la campaña.The “El Niño Southern Oscillation” (ENSO phenomenon is one of the main responsible factor for interannual climate variability in the “pampas” region. This work aims to analyze the impact of ENSO on the annual variations of corn production. The region was divided into 10 areas in which yields have a homogeneous interannual variability. Five ENSO indexes were used The results indicated that, in most parts of the region, the deviations of trend line yields are, in general, positive during “El Niño” events and negative during “La Niña”. However, the impact is very strong in the North and Centre of the analyzed region and weakens southward. In the southeast of the province of Buenos Aires, the behavior is different than the rest. Averaging indexes from May to July we obtained a good indicator

  15. Feature Inference Learning and Eyetracking (United States)

    Rehder, Bob; Colner, Robert M.; Hoffman, Aaron B.


    Besides traditional supervised classification learning, people can learn categories by inferring the missing features of category members. It has been proposed that feature inference learning promotes learning a category's internal structure (e.g., its typical features and interfeature correlations) whereas classification promotes the learning of…

  16. Pharmacological features of osthole

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agata Jarząb


    Full Text Available Coumarins are a group of naturally occurring compounds common in the plant world. These substances and their derivatives exhibit a broad range of biological activities.One of the naturally occurring coumarins is osthole, which can most frequently be found in plants of the Apiaceae family. Cnidium monnieri (L. Cusson ex Juss. Angelica pubescens Maxim. and Peucedanum ostruthium (L.. It has anti-proliferative, anti-inflammatory, anti-convulsant, and antiallergic properties; apart from that, inhibition of platelet aggregation has also been proved. The impact of osthole on bone metabolism has been demonstrated; also its hepatoprotective and neuroprotective properties have been confirmed. The inhibitory effect of this metokcompound on the development of neurodegenerative diseases has been proved in experimental models. Anticancer features of osthole have been also demonstrated both in vitro on different cell lines, and in vivo using animals xenografts. Osthole inhibited proliferation, motility and invasiveness of tumor cells, which may be associated with the induction of apoptosis and cell cycle slowdown. The exact molecular mechanism of osthole anti-cancer mode of action has not been fully elucidated. A synergistic effect of osthole with other anti-tumor substances has been also reported. Modification of its chemical structure led to the synthesis of many derivatives with significant anticancer effects.To sum up, osthole is an interesting therapeutic option, due to both its direct effect on tumor cells, as well as its neuroprotective or anti-inflammatory properties. Thus, there is a chance to use osthole or its synthetic derivatives in the treatment of cancer.

  17. Slim Battery Modelling Features (United States)

    Borthomieu, Y.; Prevot, D.


    Saft has developed a life prediction model for VES and MPS cells and batteries. The Saft Li-ion Model (SLIM) is a macroscopic electrochemical model based on energy (global at cell level). The main purpose is to predict the battery performances during the life for GEO, MEO and LEO missions. This model is based on electrochemical characteristics such as Energy, Capacity, EMF, Internal resistance, end of charge voltage. It uses fading and calendar law effects on energy and internal impedance vs. time, temperature, End of Charge voltage. Based on the mission profile, satellite power system characteristics, the model proposes the various battery configurations. For each configuration, the model gives the battery performances using mission figures and profiles: power, duration, DOD, end of charge voltages, temperatures during eclipses and solstices, thermal dissipations and cell failures. For the GEO/MEO missions, eclipse and solstice periods can include specific profile such as plasmic propulsion fires and specific balancing operations. For LEO missions, the model is able to simulate high power peaks to predict radar pulses. Saft's main customers have been using the SLIM model available in house for two years. The purpose is to have the satellite builder power engineers able to perform by themselves in the battery pre-dimensioning activities their own battery simulations. The simulations can be shared with Saft engineers to refine the power system designs. This model has been correlated with existing life and calendar tests performed on all the VES and MPS cells. In comparing with more than 10 year lasting life tests, the accuracy of the model from a voltage point of view is less than 10 mV at end Of Life. In addition, thethe comparison with in-orbit data has been also done. b This paper will present the main features of the SLIM software and outputs comparison with real life tests. b0

  18. Geohydrology, water quality, and simulation of ground-water flow in the vicinity of a former waste-oil refinery near Westville, Indiana, 1997-2000 (United States)

    Duwelius, Richard F.; Yeskis, Douglas J.; Wilson, John T.; Robinson, Bret A.


    Geohydrologic and water-quality data collected during 1997 through 2000 in the vicinity of a former waste-oil refinery near Westville, Indiana, define a plume of 1,4-dioxane in ground water that extends to the southwest approximately 0.8 miles from the refinery site. Concentrations of 1,4-dioxane in the plume ranged from 3 to 31,000 micrograms per liter. Ground water containing 1,4-dioxane is discharged to Crumpacker Ditch, approximately one-half mile west of the refinery site. Concentrations of 1,4-dioxane detected in surface water ranged from 8 to 140 micrograms per liter; 1,4-dioxane also is transported in ground water beneath the ditch.

  19. CREEK Project's Water Chemistry, Chlorophyll a, and Suspended Sediment Weekly Monitoring Database for Eight Creeks in the North Inlet Estuary, South Carolina: 1997-2000. (United States)

    Baruch Institute for Marine and Coastal Sciences, Univ of South Carolina — A group of eight tidal creeks dominated by oysters, Crassostrea virginica, in North Inlet Estuary, South Carolina, USA were studied using a replicated BACI (Before -...

  20. Power consumption in detail of private households in the Federal Republic of Germany 1997 - 2000. Study; Detaillierung des Stromverbrauchs privater Haushalte in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland 1997 - 2010. Studie

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boede, U.; Bradke, H.; Cremer, C.


    The study includes all electric appliances except for those used to heat rooms. 53 of these power-consuming appliances were also examined in detail as to their idle-power consumption (consumption during stand-by and apparent non-activity). The investigations covered specific performance, the typical sort of use and the development of the stocks. 1997 was used as the basic year. The development is estimated for the years 2000, 2005 and 2010. To identify the stand-by losses, the operational states were defined accurately. This makes it possible to determine which loss is caused by which operational mode. [German] Die Studie beruecksichtigt alle Elektrogeraete ausser solche fuer Raumwaerme. 53 dieser stromverbrauchenden Geraete wurden darueber hinaus bezueglich ihres Leerlaufverbrauchs (Verbrauch im Bereitschaftsbetrieb und im Schein-Aus-Zustand) detailliert betrachtet. Untersucht wurden die spezifische Leistungsaufnahme, die typische Anwendung und die Bestandsentwicklung. Als Basisjahr wurde 1997 herangezogen. Die Entwicklung wird abgeschaetzt fuer die Jahre 2000, 2005 und 2010. Zur Identifizierung der Leerlaufverluste wurde eine genaue Definition der Betriebszustaende vorgenommen. Dadurch ist es moeglich zuzuordnen, welcher Verlust auf welchen Betriebsmodus entfaellt. (orig.)

  1. International gas union - WOC 10. Report of study group 10.2 ''gas and the transitional economies countries'' 1997-2000

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guerrin, Y.


    What should and can be done in any given sector, such as energy, is conditioned by the overall economic and social situation. For most transition countries, the road to reform since 1989 has been very difficult. The economic and social costs of transition have been high. Declines in economic output and unemployment have been severe. In other words, the process of transformation has severely taxed countries economically, socially and politically. The hyper-inflation, the economic turndown and the disequilibria in state budgets that followed the collapse of the centralized planning system during the initial phases of the transition process - during the early 1990's - compelled governments to give priority to macro-stabilisation policies. Consequently, less attention, by necessity, could be given to reforming the energy sector in order to promote objectives such as energy security, economic efficiency and environmental protection. As well, progress in reforming the energy sector has lagged behind reforms in other sectors of the economy because of the very significant economic and social consequences of reforms in this sector. Energy costs represent a significant proportion of household expenditures. Therefore, governments have had to weigh the economic and social implications of reforms, such as higher energy prices, notably on households but also on certain sectors of industry. Since the beginning of the 1990's the road to reform in central and eastern Europe has been rather difficult. Nevertheless despite the many problems, there have been real, tangible achievements in moving towards a market economy as well as in the establishment of democratic institutions in most transition countries. Moreover in most of them the private sector contribution to GDP now exceeds 50%. Unfortunately the economic transition is in some respects still incomplete and aggregate output levels are still below those of 1989. For transition countries as a whole, industrial production is still about 40% below the pre-transition level. (author)

  2. Surveillance of environmental risks for the health in the area of the construction of hydroelectric project Porce ll, Antioquia Colombia 1997 -2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez P, Claudia; Rios V Claudia; Osorio Q, Lisardo; Valencia Lia, Marta; Escobar V, Juan Pablo; Lopez A, Yolanda


    The effects on the health of the human populations generated by the construction of dams for the energy production, not always have been considered when the construction of the work is planned. Van Thiel (1962), Gartrell et al. (1972), Ackerman et al. (1973), Brown and Deom (1973), Waddy (1973, 1975), Stanley and Alpers (1975), Worthington (1978), Eguniwe (1976) y Paiva (1982). This study pilot in the country watched during four years the environmental conditions of risk for the health in the hydroelectric project Porce ll during its construction and the pertinent measures were recommended, to protect the conditions of health of the population worker and the inhabitants of the area of influence of this one. In periodic form, the work camping, work fronts and medical centers were inspected. The main problem observed through the time was related to the deficient processes of washing and disinfections in the sanitary services and restaurants and the presence of diverse vectors breeding place of diseases, appearing greater problem in the rims in disuse and carps that were used to cover the structures and equipment that was stored outdoors. Most of the factors of risk for the health they were corrected Colombia. Through the time and in so me it was necessary to insist on the given recommendations

  3. El patrimonio industrial en la estimulación del desarrollo: Intervenciones y revitalización urbana en Lota Alto (1997-2000

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonel Pérez Bustamante


    El Plan de reconversión productiva de la ciudad minera de Lota, aunque marginalmente, está realizando un esfuerzo en este sentido una vez que la explotación minera del carbón ha finalizado después de haber sido el principal sector económico. Dos de sus proyectos, la Restauración de los viejos pabellones de vivienda del conjunto de Lota Alto y el circuito turístico patrimonial, están siendo relevantes tanto para la recuperación del patrimonio minero-industrial de la ciudad como para su reactivación económica, especialmente mediante la actividad del turismo patrimonial. Su puesta en marcha indica un modesto pero alentador interés por este tema y señala un importante precedente en un país de vocación minera como Chile.

  4. The application of isotope techniques to the assessment of aquifer systems in major urban areas. Final report of a co-ordinated research project 1997-2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    Aquifer systems in most urban areas have been impacted to varying degrees by sustained exploitation and the future availability of water is being threatened by depleting aquifers or water quality degradation. Improved methods for the assessment and management of groundwater resources in major urban areas, therefore, are issues of high priority for most countries. The IAEA has, over last four decades, co-ordinated the development, adaptation, and testing of isotope techniques for hydrological applications. A number of techniques and methodologies that are now established for water resources management are potentially useful for characterizing the short and long term changes resulting from the extensive use of aquifers in and near urban areas. The application of isotope techniques in urban hydrology was the focus of this co-ordinated research project (CRP). This report provides the final results of the CRP, and is expected to be of interest to scientists, managers and planners involved in water resources assessment in urban areas. This publication contains seven individual reports, each of them was indexed separately

  5. Case studies to assess and compare different energy sources in sustainable energy and electricity supply strategies. Final report of a co-ordinated project 1997-2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    The IAEA offers its Member States a comprehensive programme of technical assistance and co-operation, which covers many diverse areas related to peaceful uses of nuclear energy. In the area of comparative assessment, the objective of assistance is to strengthen national capabilities for informed decision making, and for elaborating sustainable choices among alternative options for energy supply and use. In the past, the planning process was designed to meet the future demand for energy at the least engineering cost. However, the pursuit of increasingly sustainable energy options over time has required a broader comparative assessment that addresses economic, social, health and environmental factors. To support this need, in 1992 the IAEA initiated an inter-agency project on databases and methodologies for comparative assessment of different energy sources for electricity generation (DECADES). Under the project, nine international organizations, European Commission (EC), the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), the Nuclear Energy Agency of the OECD (OECD/NEA), the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), agreed to pool their efforts to achieve the common objective of enhancing capabilities for comparative assessment of different energy chains in the process of planning and decision making for the electricity sector. DECADES was initially conceived as a set of generic and national databases detailing the environmental impacts, costs and characteristics of various generating and fuel chain technologies which could be used for comparative assessment by investors and policy makers. These databases were linked to software permitting their easy integration into other energy planning or analysis tools. DECADES was thus organized as a data management system rather than as an overall or long range energy planning tool. In 1997, the IAEA initiated a co-ordinated research project (CRP) on Case Studies to Assess and Compare Different Sources in Sustainable Energy and Electricity Supply Strategies under the aegis of the DECADES project to conduct a series of national studies using the DECADES package (DECPAC). Under this CRP, experts from more than twenty countries utilized databases and methodologies developed and reviewed under the DECADES project to carry out national comparative assessment studies. At a final Research Co-ordination Meeting (RCM), held from 14 to 16 December 1999, meeting participants agreed on the format of executive summaries to be prepared for each of the national case studies. This publication summarizes the results obtained and the lessons learned from national case studies carried out under the CRP. The report is intended primarily for managers and senior experts in governmental organizations, research institutes and power utilities who are involved in energy and environmental analysis, interpretation of model results and translation into decision and policy making

  6. Teleconnection among Asian Summer Monsoon, ENSO and PDO revealed by instrumental and historic records as well as an annual resolution stalagmite record from Lianhua Cave, northwestern Hunan, China (United States)

    Li, H.; Yin, J.; Yuan, D.; Li, T.


    A 33-cm long aragonite stalagmite, LHN-1, from Lianhua Cave (29°09'N, 109°33'E , 459m a.s.l.) in NW Hunan Province of China has been dated by ICP-MS 230Th/U method. The 14 230Th/U dates with less than ×37 years uncertainties yield excellent chronology, showing that the stalagmite grew continuously over the past 3400 years. The 0.1-mm sampling interval for stable isotope analyses provides annual resolution δ18O and δ13C records of the LHN-1 stalagmite. Up-to-dated, a total of 887 measurements for δ18O and δ13C have been made, which reveal detailed monsoonal climatic changes during the past 1000 years. The average values of δ18O and δ13C are -5.83 (‰, PDB) and -3.29 (‰, PDB), respectively. For the youngest part of the δ18O record, we have compared with the instrumentally meteorological records and historical dryness/wetness indexes from the studying area, indicating that stalagmite δ18O on annual-to-decadal scales reflects mainly rainfall change in the monsoonal area, with lighter δ18O reflecting wetter condition. The comparison of the δ18O with the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) index since AD 1850 adopted by IPCC (2007) illustrates that lighter stalagmite δ18O corresponds to stronger EASM. Taking the average δ18O value of the 1000-yr record as an average climatic condition, we have found that the δ18O values during AD 1050~1100, 1125~1225, 1300~1350, 1430~1630 and 1900~1960 are lighter than the average, reflecting stronger EASM and wetter condition. The δ18O values during AD 1100~1125, 1225~1300, 1350~1430, 1630~1900 and 1960 to the present are heavier than the average, indicating weak EASM and drier condition. On decadal-to-centennial scales, the δ13C variations generally follow that of δ18O which probably demonstrates that vegetation above the cave controls the δ13C variations. Further comparisons of the δ18O, EASM, ENSO and PDO show that a negative SOI (El Nino phase) correlates warm PDO phase and higher N. Pacific pressure, resulting

  7. Enhancing facial features by using clear facial features (United States)

    Rofoo, Fanar Fareed Hanna


    The similarity of features between individuals of same ethnicity motivated the idea of this project. The idea of this project is to extract features of clear facial image and impose them on blurred facial image of same ethnic origin as an approach to enhance a blurred facial image. A database of clear images containing 30 individuals equally divided to five different ethnicities which were Arab, African, Chines, European and Indian. Software was built to perform pre-processing on images in order to align the features of clear and blurred images. And the idea was to extract features of clear facial image or template built from clear facial images using wavelet transformation to impose them on blurred image by using reverse wavelet. The results of this approach did not come well as all the features did not align together as in most cases the eyes were aligned but the nose or mouth were not aligned. Then we decided in the next approach to deal with features separately but in the result in some cases a blocky effect was present on features due to not having close matching features. In general the available small database did not help to achieve the goal results, because of the number of available individuals. The color information and features similarity could be more investigated to achieve better results by having larger database as well as improving the process of enhancement by the availability of closer matches in each ethnicity.

  8. Complex Topographic Feature Ontology Patterns (United States)

    Varanka, Dalia E.; Jerris, Thomas J.


    Semantic ontologies are examined as effective data models for the representation of complex topographic feature types. Complex feature types are viewed as integrated relations between basic features for a basic purpose. In the context of topographic science, such component assemblages are supported by resource systems and found on the local landscape. Ontologies are organized within six thematic modules of a domain ontology called Topography that includes within its sphere basic feature types, resource systems, and landscape types. Context is constructed not only as a spatial and temporal setting, but a setting also based on environmental processes. Types of spatial relations that exist between components include location, generative processes, and description. An example is offered in a complex feature type ‘mine.’ The identification and extraction of complex feature types are an area for future research.

  9. Hong Kong English: phonological features


    Irina-Ana Drobot


    The aim of the paper is to present phonological features of Hong Kong English, which is a variety of New English. I examine features of the sound system (vowel and consonantal systems), characteristics of stress, rhythm, intonation, and phonological processes of the English spoken by Hongkongers. The way in which the accent and characteristics of the Hong Kong variety of English differs from standard, RP English is pointed out. Influences of Chinese and Cantonese on the phonological features ...

  10. Emergent interfaces for feature modularization

    CERN Document Server

    Ribeiro, Márcio; Brabrand, Claus


    Developers frequently introduce errors into software systems when they fail to recognise module dependencies. Using forty-three software families and Software Product Lines (SPLs), where the majority are commonly used in industrial practice, the authors reports on the feature modularization problem and provides a study of how often it may occur in practice. To solve the problem they present the concept of emergent feature modularization which aims to establish contracts between features to prevent developers from breaking other features when performing a maintenance task.

  11. (ENSO) and West African Rainfall

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Nneka Umera-Okeke

    to 2013 was retrieved from National Ocean Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) as updated by the ... of two continental trade winds from of the Atlantic Ocean and the Sahara Desert, it is also sensible to ..... Agric & Forest Met. 107. Nnaji, A. O. ...

  12. Bangladesh floods, cyclones and ENSO

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choudhury, A.M.


    It has been found that in general there is a reduction of rainfall in all the regions of Bangladesh in all the seasons - premonsoon, monsoon and post monsoon during El Nino years. It has also been observed that in strong El Nino year Bangladesh is not hit by a catastrophic flood or a catastrophic cyclone. In the past, occurrence of famines in this region of the world coincided with El Nino years. The years of weak El Nino or when the El Nino index is positive seem to be favourable for the occurrence of floods and cyclones in Bangladesh. A theory of the modulation of the monsoon in Bangladesh by the Walker circulation has been described in the paper. (author). 14 refs, 7 figs, 1 tab

  13. Climate Prediction Center - ENSO FAQ (United States)

    data buoys used to monitor ocean temperatures? What is climate variability? A prominent aspect of our Niño or La Niña? During an El Niño or La Niña, the changes in Pacific Ocean temperatures affect Pacific. Changes in the ocean surface temperatures affect tropical rainfall patterns and atmospheric winds

  14. ENSO forecasts in South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA


    Full Text Available The SST prediction systems currently being used at the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) and the South African Weather Service (SAWS) are presented. In particular, the skill of these systems to predict Niño3.4 SST and how...

  15. Spatial features register: toward standardization of spatial features (United States)

    Cascio, Janette


    As the need to share spatial data increases, more than agreement on a common format is needed to ensure that the data is meaningful to both the importer and the exporter. Effective data transfer also requires common definitions of spatial features. To achieve this, part 2 of the Spatial Data Transfer Standard (SDTS) provides a model for a spatial features data content specification and a glossary of features and attributes that fit this model. The model provides a foundation for standardizing spatial features. The glossary now contains only a limited subset of hydrographic and topographic features. For it to be useful, terms and definitions must be included for other categories, such as base cartographic, bathymetric, cadastral, cultural and demographic, geodetic, geologic, ground transportation, international boundaries, soils, vegetation, water, and wetlands, and the set of hydrographic and topographic features must be expanded. This paper will review the philosophy of the SDTS part 2 and the current plans for creating a national spatial features register as one mechanism for maintaining part 2.

  16. Feature extraction using fractal codes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B.A.M. Ben Schouten; Paul M. de Zeeuw


    Fast and successful searching for an object in a multimedia database is a highly desirable functionality. Several approaches to content based retrieval for multimedia databases can be found in the literature [9,10,12,14,17]. The approach we consider is feature extraction. A feature can be seen as a

  17. Feature Extraction Using Fractal Codes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B.A.M. Schouten (Ben); P.M. de Zeeuw (Paul)


    htmlabstractFast and successful searching for an object in a multimedia database is a highly desirable functionality. Several approaches to content based retrieval for multimedia databases can be found in the literature [9,10,12,14,17]. The approach we consider is feature extraction. A feature can

  18. Partial Epilepsy with Auditory Features

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J Gordon Millichap


    Full Text Available The clinical characteristics of 53 sporadic (S cases of idiopathic partial epilepsy with auditory features (IPEAF were analyzed and compared to previously reported familial (F cases of autosomal dominant partial epilepsy with auditory features (ADPEAF in a study at the University of Bologna, Italy.

  19. Tolerance-Based Feature Transforms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reniers, Dennie; Telea, Alexandru


    Tolerance-based feature transforms (TFTs) assign to each pixel in an image not only the nearest feature pixels on the boundary (origins), but all origins from the minimum distance up to a user-defined tolerance. In this paper, we compare four simple-to-implement methods for computing TFTs on binary

  20. Language Features and Culture Features on Short Message

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)



    Mobile phone is regarded as“the fifth media”after newspaper,radio,TV and the Internet.The mobile phone short message further highlights the importance of written signs in communication.“The thumb revolution”is eagerly anticipating one kind of trend by the hand replace of mouth,sound substitute for the quiet around us. My paper will analyze the language features and the culture features of mobile phone short messages which are written in Chinese and English.

  1. Glacial Features (Point) - Quad 168 (EPPING, NH) (United States)

    University of New Hampshire — The Glacial Features (Point) layer describes point features associated with surficial geology. These glacial features include, but are not limited to, delta forsets,...

  2. Hong Kong English: phonological features

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina-Ana Drobot


    Full Text Available The aim of the paper is to present phonological features of Hong Kong English, which is a variety of New English. I examine features of the sound system (vowel and consonantal systems, characteristics of stress, rhythm, intonation, and phonological processes of the English spoken by Hongkongers. The way in which the accent and characteristics of the Hong Kong variety of English differs from standard, RP English is pointed out. Influences of Chinese and Cantonese on the phonological features of Hong Kong English are noticeable

  3. Solar Features - Prominences and Filaments (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Prominences and filaments are two manifestations of the same phenomenon. Both prominences and filaments are features formed above the chromosphere by cool dense...

  4. Youth job market specific features

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evgeniya Yu. Zhuravleva


    Full Text Available The article considers youth job market peculiarities, its specific features and regulation means, determines theoretical and application tasks of qualitative and quantitative comparison of vocations, which are highly in demand at the job market.

  5. Features of Fragile X Syndrome (United States)

    ... Disabilities in FXS include a range from moderate learning disabilities to more severe intellectual disabilities. Physical features may ... intellectual disability. Others may have moderate or mild learning disabilities, emotional/mental health issues, general anxiety and/or ...

  6. Nonmotor Features in Atypical Parkinsonism. (United States)

    Bhatia, Kailash P; Stamelou, Maria


    Atypical parkinsonism (AP) comprises mainly multiple system atrophy (MSA), progressive supranuclear palsy (PSP), and corticobasal degeneration (CBD), which are distinct pathological entities, presenting with a wide phenotypic spectrum. The classic syndromes are now called MSA-parkinsonism (MSA-P), MSA-cerebellar type (MSA-C), Richardson's syndrome, and corticobasal syndrome. Nonmotor features in AP have been recognized almost since the initial description of these disorders; however, research has been limited. Autonomic dysfunction is the most prominent nonmotor feature of MSA, but also gastrointestinal symptoms, sleep dysfunction, and pain, can be a feature. In PSP and CBD, the most prominent nonmotor symptoms comprise those deriving from the cognitive/neuropsychiatric domain. Apart from assisting the clinician in the differential diagnosis with Parkinson's disease, nonmotor features in AP have a big impact on quality of life and prognosis of AP and their treatment poses a major challenge for clinicians. © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Organization Features and School Performance


    Atkins, Lois Major


    The purpose of this study was to determine the odds of school organization features predicting schools meeting district or state performance goals. The school organization features were organizational complexity, shared decision making, and leadership behavior. The dependent variable was school performance, operationally defined as a principalâ s yes response or no response to the question, â did your school meet district or state performance goals.â The independent variables representing...

  8. Enhanced feature integration in musicians

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Niels Christian; Højlund, Andreas; Møller, Cecilie

    the classical oddball control paradigm which used identical sounds. This novel finding supports the dependent processing hypothesis suggesting that musicians recruit overlapping neural resources facilitating more holistic representations of domain-relevant stimuli. These specialised refinements in predictive......Distinguishing and integrating features of sensory input is essential to human survival and no less paramount in music perception and cognition. Yet, little is known about training-induced plasticity of neural mechanisms for auditory feature integration. This study aimed to contrast the two...

  9. Search features of digital libraries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alastair G. Smith


    Full Text Available Traditional on-line search services such as Dialog, DataStar and Lexis provide a wide range of search features (boolean and proximity operators, truncation, etc. This paper discusses the use of these features for effective searching, and argues that these features are required, regardless of advances in search engine technology. The literature on on-line searching is reviewed, identifying features that searchers find desirable for effective searching. A selective survey of current digital libraries available on the Web was undertaken, identifying which search features are present. The survey indicates that current digital libraries do not implement a wide range of search features. For instance: under half of the examples included controlled vocabulary, under half had proximity searching, only one enabled browsing of term indexes, and none of the digital libraries enable searchers to refine an initial search. Suggestions are made for enhancing the search effectiveness of digital libraries, for instance by: providing a full range of search operators, enabling browsing of search terms, enhancement of records with controlled vocabulary, enabling the refining of initial searches, etc.

  10. Inflation and WMAP three year data. Features have a feature.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Covi, L.; Hamann, J. [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany); Melchiorri, A. [INFN, Roma (Italy)]|[Rome-3 Univ. (Italy). Dipt. di Fisica; Slosar, A. [Ljubljana Univ. (Slovenia). Faculty of Mathematics and Physics; Sorbera, I. [Rome-3 Univ. (Italy). Dipt. di Fisica


    The new three year WMAP data seem to confirm the presence of non-standard large scale features in the Cosmic Microwave Anisotropies power spectrum. While these features may hint at uncorrected experimental systematics, it is also possible to generate, in a cosmological way, oscillations on large angular scales by introducing a sharp step in the inflaton potential. Using current cosmological data, we derive constraints on the position, magnitude and gradient of a possible step in the inflaton potential. We show that a step in the potential, while strongly constrained by current data, is still allowed and may provide an interesting explanation to the currently measured deviations from the standard featureless spectrum. (Orig.)

  11. Variaciones morfológicas y batimétricas de la línea de costa en el estuario del río Chone, producidas por los eventos ENSO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)


    Full Text Available VARIATIONS MORPHOLOGIQUES ET BATHYMETRIQUES DU RIVAGE DANS L’ESTUAIRE DU RIO CHONE PROVOQUEES PAR DES EVENEMENTS ENSO. Le phénomène El Niño accélère les processus de sédimentation et d’érosion dans l’estuaire du rio Chone. Au cours des événements de 1940 (El Niño fort et 1958 (El Niño faible, on a observé un accroissement des processus de sédimentation, vers l’amont de l’estuaire, alors que l’on observait des processus d’érosion vers l’aval. Les résultats que nous présentons sont basés sur l’évolution des profils transversaux de 6 sections situées au long de l’estuaire au cours des années 1940, 1958, 1961 (année normale, 1964 (année froide et 1979. On a également utilisé les autres études publiées sur ce sujet. Ces études montrent qu’au cours d’un phénomène El Niño : Le niveau de l’océan s’élève, les vagues se brisent un peu plus près du rivage et provoquent de l’érosion sur la côte nord de l’Equateur. Les fortes pluies augmentent l’instabilité des falaises situées au sud de Bahia de Caraquez. Il y a érosion de la base des pentes des collines qui entourent l’estuaire, ce qui augmente la charge de sédiment dans l’estuaire. En este estudio, se observó el comportamiento de las profundidades cada doscientos metros, de 6 transectas ubicadas a lo largo del estuario (Fig. 1. Además se superpusieron cartas batimétricas, en donde se pudo observar claramente los procesos de acreción y regresión que ha sufrido la línea de costa del estuario del río Chone, a través de los años. Los años en los que se basaron estas observaciones corresponden a información obtenida de cartas batimétricas de 1940 (Niño fuerte, 1958 (Niño débil, 1961 (año normal, 1964 (año frío y 1979. Durante los eventos ENSO (El Niño Oscilación del Sur de 1940 y 1958, el estuario sufrió fuertes procesos de sedimentación, sobre todo en las transectas ubicadas hacia la cabecera, no así, hacia la desembocadura en

  12. Decontaminate feature for tracking: adaptive tracking via evolutionary feature subset (United States)

    Liu, Qiaoyuan; Wang, Yuru; Yin, Minghao; Ren, Jinchang; Li, Ruizhi


    Although various visual tracking algorithms have been proposed in the last 2-3 decades, it remains a challenging problem for effective tracking with fast motion, deformation, occlusion, etc. Under complex tracking conditions, most tracking models are not discriminative and adaptive enough. When the combined feature vectors are inputted to the visual models, this may lead to redundancy causing low efficiency and ambiguity causing poor performance. An effective tracking algorithm is proposed to decontaminate features for each video sequence adaptively, where the visual modeling is treated as an optimization problem from the perspective of evolution. Every feature vector is compared to a biological individual and then decontaminated via classical evolutionary algorithms. With the optimized subsets of features, the "curse of dimensionality" has been avoided while the accuracy of the visual model has been improved. The proposed algorithm has been tested on several publicly available datasets with various tracking challenges and benchmarked with a number of state-of-the-art approaches. The comprehensive experiments have demonstrated the efficacy of the proposed methodology.

  13. Feature-level domain adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kouw, Wouter M.; Van Der Maaten, Laurens J P; Krijthe, Jesse H.


    -level domain adaptation (flda), that models the dependence between the two domains by means of a feature-level transfer model that is trained to describe the transfer from source to target domain. Subsequently, we train a domain-adapted classifier by minimizing the expected loss under the resulting transfer...... modeled via a dropout distribution, which allows the classiffier to adapt to differences in the marginal probability of features in the source and the target domain. Our experiments on several real-world problems show that flda performs on par with state-of-the-art domainadaptation techniques.......Domain adaptation is the supervised learning setting in which the training and test data are sampled from different distributions: training data is sampled from a source domain, whilst test data is sampled from a target domain. This paper proposes and studies an approach, called feature...

  14. Prostatic adenocarcinoma with glomeruloid features. (United States)

    Pacelli, A; Lopez-Beltran, A; Egan, A J; Bostwick, D G


    A wide variety of architectural patterns of adenocarcinoma may be seen in the prostate. We have recently encountered a hitherto-undescribed pattern of growth characterized by intraluminal ball-like clusters of cancer cells reminiscent of renal glomeruli, which we refer to as prostatic adenocarcinoma with glomeruloid features. To define the architectural features, frequency, and distribution of prostatic adenocarcinoma with glomeruloid features, we reviewed 202 totally embedded radical prostatectomy specimens obtained between October 1992 and April 1994 from the files of the Mayo Clinic. This series was supplemented by 100 consecutive needle biopsies with prostatic cancer from January to February 1996. Prostatic adenocarcinoma with glomeruloid features was characterized by round to oval epithelial tufts growing within malignant acini, often supported by a fibrovascular core. The epithelial cells were sometimes arranged in semicircular concentric rows separated by clefted spaces. In the radical prostatectomy specimens, nine cases (4.5%) had glomeruloid features. The glomeruloid pattern constituted 5% to 20% of each cancer (mean, 8.33%) and was usually located at the apex or in the peripheral zone of the prostate. Seven cases were associated with a high Gleason score (7 or 8), one with a score of 6, and one with a score of 5. All cases were associated with high-grade prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia and extensive perineural invasion. Pathological stages included T2c (three cases), T3b (four cases), and T3c (two cases); one of the T3b cases had lymph node metastases (N1). Three (3%) of 100 consecutive routine needle biopsy specimens with cancer showed glomeruloid features, and this pattern constituted 5% to 10% of each cancer (mean, 6.7%). The Gleason score was 6 for two cases and 8 for one case. Two cases were associated with high-grade prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia, and one case had perineural invasion. Glomeruloid features were not observed in any benign or

  15. Tunable features of magnetoelectric transformers. (United States)

    Dong, Shuxiang; Zhai, Junyi; Priya, Shashank; Li, Jie-Fang; Viehland, Dwight


    We have found that magnetostrictive FeBSiC alloy ribbons laminated with piezoelectric Pb(Zr,Ti)O(3) fiber can act as a tunable transformer when driven under resonant conditions. These composites were also found to exhibit the strongest resonant magnetoelectric voltage coefficient of 750 V/cm-Oe. The tunable features were achieved by applying small dc magnetic biases of -5 transformer features can be attributed to large changes in the piezomagnetic coefficient and permeability of the magnetostrictive phase under H(dc).

  16. Clinical features of radiation retinopathy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tabuchi, Shoko; Oda, Itsuo; Okawa, Tomohiko


    The clinical features of 25 cases with radiation retinopathy are described. Retinopathy was induced following therapeutic irradiation of paraobital malignancies with megavoltage Linac x-ray of 3,000 rads or more. Retinal vessels, particularly the proximal portion of retinal arteries, seemed to be the primary site of damage due to radiation. According to the type of lesion and dosage, fundus features simulated papillitis, retinal angiosclerosis, or hard exudates due to capillary obliteration. Acute obstruction of the central retinal artery and ischemic optic neuropathy could result from heavy irradiation of over 5,000 rads. (Evans, J.)

  17. Observed spectral features of dust

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Willner, S.P.


    The author concentrates on the observed properties of dust spectral features. Identifications, based on laboratory data, are given whenever plausible ones exist. There are a very large number of papers in the literature of even such a young field as infrared spectroscopy, and therefore the author refers only to the most recent paper on a topic or to another review. (Auth.)

  18. Universal features of multiplicity distributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balantekin, A.B.; Washington Univ., Seattle, WA


    Universal features of multiplicity distributions are studied and combinants, certain linear combinations of ratios of probabilities, are introduced. It is argued that they can be a useful tool in analyzing multiplicity distributions of hadrons emitted in high energy collisions and large scale structure of galaxy distributions

  19. Imaging features of kaposiform lymphangiomatosis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goyal, Pradeep; Alomari, Ahmad I.; Shaikh, Raja; Chaudry, Gulraiz; Kozakewich, Harry P.; Perez-Atayde, Antonio R.; Trenor, Cameron C.; Fishman, Steven J.; Greene, Arin K.


    Kaposiform lymphangiomatosis is a rare, aggressive lymphatic disorder. The imaging and presenting features of kaposiform lymphangiomatosis can overlap with those of central conducting lymphatic anomaly and generalized lymphatic anomaly. To analyze the imaging findings of kaposiform lymphangiomatosis disorder and highlight features most suggestive of this diagnosis. We retrospectively identified and characterized 20 children and young adults with histopathological diagnosis of kaposiform lymphangiomatosis and radiologic imaging referred to the vascular anomalies center between 1995 and 2015. The median age at onset was 6.5 years (range 3 months to 27 years). The most common presenting features were respiratory compromise (dyspnea, cough, chest pain; 55.5%), swelling/mass (25%), bleeding (15%) and fracture (5%). The thoracic cavity was involved in all patients; all patients had mediastinal involvement followed by lung parenchymal disease (90%) and pleural (85%) and pericardial (50%) effusions. The most common extra-thoracic sites of disease were the retroperitoneum (80%), bone (60%), abdominal viscera (55%) and muscles (45%). There was characteristic enhancing and infiltrative soft-tissue thickening in the mediastinum and retroperitoneum extending along the lymphatic distribution. Kaposiform lymphangiomatosis has overlapping imaging features with central conducting lymphatic anomaly and generalized lymphatic anomaly. Presence of mediastinal or retroperitoneal enhancing and infiltrative soft-tissue disease along the lymphatic distribution, hemorrhagic effusions and moderate thrombocytopenia (50-100,000/μl) should favor diagnosis of kaposiform lymphangiomatosis. (orig.)

  20. Goldenhar syndrome with unusual features

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehta Bijal


    Full Text Available We report here the case of a 17 year-old girl with the classic signs of Goldenhar syndrome in the form of multiple accessory tragi, bilateral ocular dermoids, mandibular hypoplasia (micrognathia and cervical lordosis. She also had a high arched palate, gingival hypertrophy and malaligned teeth, features which are as yet unreported.

  1. Feature selection toolbox software package

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Pudil, Pavel; Novovičová, Jana; Somol, Petr


    Roč. 23, č. 4 (2002), s. 487-492 ISSN 0167-8655 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/01/0981 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1075907 Keywords : pattern recognition * feature selection * loating search algorithms Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.409, year: 2002

  2. Goldenhar syndrome with unusual features. (United States)

    Mehta, Bijal; Nayak, Chitra; Savant, Shankar; Amladi, Sangeeta


    We report here the case of a 17 year-old girl with the classic signs of Goldenhar syndrome in the form of multiple accessory tragi, bilateral ocular dermoids, mandibular hypoplasia (micrognathia) and cervical lordosis. She also had a high arched palate, gingival hypertrophy and malaligned teeth, features which are as yet unreported.

  3. Features of Diphtheria in Children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O.K. Koloskova


    Full Text Available The lecture describes the etiology, epidemiology, classification and clinical features of diphtheria in children, taking into account various sites, covers the issues of diagnosis. Treatment for diphtheria in children is carried as per the order of Ministry of Healthcare of Ukraine № 354 dated July 9, 2004 in accordance with the form and severity of the disease.

  4. Features Related to Faunal Activity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kooistra, M.J.; Pulleman, M.M.


    Soil fauna plays an important role in transporting and altering various soil components, in particular the decomposition of organic matter and the development of soil structure. Fauna-induced features are found in all types of soils and can be so abundant that they determine the nature and intensity

  5. Dynamic Features for Iris Recognition. (United States)

    da Costa, R M; Gonzaga, A


    The human eye is sensitive to visible light. Increasing illumination on the eye causes the pupil of the eye to contract, while decreasing illumination causes the pupil to dilate. Visible light causes specular reflections inside the iris ring. On the other hand, the human retina is less sensitive to near infra-red (NIR) radiation in the wavelength range from 800 nm to 1400 nm, but iris detail can still be imaged with NIR illumination. In order to measure the dynamic movement of the human pupil and iris while keeping the light-induced reflexes from affecting the quality of the digitalized image, this paper describes a device based on the consensual reflex. This biological phenomenon contracts and dilates the two pupils synchronously when illuminating one of the eyes by visible light. In this paper, we propose to capture images of the pupil of one eye using NIR illumination while illuminating the other eye using a visible-light pulse. This new approach extracts iris features called "dynamic features (DFs)." This innovative methodology proposes the extraction of information about the way the human eye reacts to light, and to use such information for biometric recognition purposes. The results demonstrate that these features are discriminating features, and, even using the Euclidean distance measure, an average accuracy of recognition of 99.1% was obtained. The proposed methodology has the potential to be "fraud-proof," because these DFs can only be extracted from living irises.

  6. MRI features of placenta accreta

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cao Manrui; Du Mu; Huang Yi; Liu Bingguang; Zhang Fangjing; Guo Jimin; Zhu Zhijun


    Objective: To investigate the MRI features of placenta accreta. Methods: From Apr 2009 to Jun 2011, 15 patients with placenta accrete received MRI examination. In them, placenta accreta was diagnosed based on clinical manifestations or postoperative histopathology. The MR features of placenta accreta in them (study group) were retrospectively analyzed and compared with those in 15 pregnant women without placenta accreta (control group) with Fisher exact test. Results: In the 15 patients with placenta accreta,uterine bulging and (or) a focal outward contour bulge was detected in 14 patients; heterogeneous signal intensity in the placenta was detected in 15 patients; dark intraplacental bands on T 2 -weighted images was detected in 15 patients; and increased subplacental vascularity was detected in 11 patients on T 1 - weighted images. In the study group, 14 patients showed at least three of the above four features, and in all of them uterine bulging and (or) a focal outward contour bulge, heterogeneous signal intensity in the placenta and dark intraplacental bands on T 2 -weighted images were detected; one patient showed heterogeneous signal intensity in the placenta, dark intraplacental bands on T 2 -weighted images and increased subplacental vascularity. In the control group,none patient had three of the above features.Uterine bulging and (or) a focal outward contour bulge, heterogeneous signal intensity in the placenta, dark intraplacental bands on T 2 -weighted images and increased subplacental vascularity were detected in 3, 6, 3 and 4 patients (P=0.000, 0.001, 0.000 and 0.027), respectively. Conclusions: The main MRI features of placenta accreta are uterine bulging and (or) a focal outward contour bulge, heterogeneous signal intensity in the placenta and dark intraplacental bands on T 2 -weighted images Besides, increased subplacental vascularity also could provide useful information for the diagnosis of placenta accreta. (authors)

  7. Feature singletons attract spatial attention independently of feature priming. (United States)

    Yashar, Amit; White, Alex L; Fang, Wanghaoming; Carrasco, Marisa


    People perform better in visual search when the target feature repeats across trials (intertrial feature priming [IFP]). Here, we investigated whether repetition of a feature singleton's color modulates stimulus-driven shifts of spatial attention by presenting a probe stimulus immediately after each singleton display. The task alternated every two trials between a probe discrimination task and a singleton search task. We measured both stimulus-driven spatial attention (via the distance between the probe and singleton) and IFP (via repetition of the singleton's color). Color repetition facilitated search performance (IFP effect) when the set size was small. When the probe appeared at the singleton's location, performance was better than at the opposite location (stimulus-driven attention effect). The magnitude of this attention effect increased with the singleton's set size (which increases its saliency) but did not depend on whether the singleton's color repeated across trials, even when the previous singleton had been attended as a search target. Thus, our findings show that repetition of a salient singleton's color affects performance when the singleton is task relevant and voluntarily attended (as in search trials). However, color repetition does not affect performance when the singleton becomes irrelevant to the current task, even though the singleton does capture attention (as in probe trials). Therefore, color repetition per se does not make a singleton more salient for stimulus-driven attention. Rather, we suggest that IFP requires voluntary selection of color singletons in each consecutive trial.

  8. Mid-Infrared Emission Features in the ISM: Feature-to-Features Flux Ratios (United States)

    Lu, N. Y.


    Using a limited, but representative sample of sources in the ISM of our Galaxy with published spectra from the Infrared Space Observatory, we analyze flux ratios between the major mid-IR emission features (EFs) centered around 6.2, 7.7, 8.6 and 11.3 mu, respectively.

  9. Component Composition Using Feature Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eichberg, Michael; Klose, Karl; Mitschke, Ralf


    interface description languages. If this variability is relevant when selecting a matching component then human interaction is required to decide which components can be bound. We propose to use feature models for making this variability explicit and (re-)enabling automatic component binding. In our...... approach, feature models are one part of service specifications. This enables to declaratively specify which service variant is provided by a component. By referring to a service's variation points, a component that requires a specific service can list the requirements on the desired variant. Using...... these specifications, a component environment can then determine if a binding of the components exists that satisfies all requirements. The prototypical environment Columbus demonstrates the feasibility of the approach....


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Dorina PASCA


    Full Text Available Student psychological counseling is one of the means to acknowledge student identity by employing counseling tools that allow the psychologist to make use of a set of skills essential in achieving envisaged outcomes. To act as counseling psychologist for students is to guide actions by the five wh- questions: who (the client is, why (the counselor is approached, who (the counselor talks to, what (problem the student has to tackle, how (the problem can be solved. Some of the most important features that contribute to solving student problems are the counselor’s deontology, trustworthiness and attitude that are to be relied on without impeding the client’s personality traits. Thus, developing awareness of the features underlying student psychological counseling and acting accordingly is the real test for any professional in the field. Therefore, the real challenge is not being in the lion’s den, but living with it.

  11. Clinical features of movement disorders. (United States)

    Yung, C Y


    The descriptive aspects of all types of movement disorders and their related syndromes and terminologies used in the literature are reviewed and described. This comprises the features of (a) movement disorders secondary to neurological diseases affecting the extrapyramidal motor system, such as: athetosis, chorea, dystonia, hemiballismus, myoclonus, tremor, tics and spasm, (b) drug induced movement disorders, such as: akathisia, akinesia, hyperkinesia, dyskinesias, extrapyramidal syndrome, and tardive dyskinesia, and (c) abnormal movements in psychiatric disorders, such as: mannerism, stereotyped behaviour and psychomotor retardation. It is intended to bring about a more comprehensive overview of these movement disorders from a phenomenological perspective, so that clinicians can familiarize with these features for diagnosis. Some general statements are made in regard to some of the characteristics of movement disorders.

  12. Textural features for image classification (United States)

    Haralick, R. M.; Dinstein, I.; Shanmugam, K.


    Description of some easily computable textural features based on gray-tone spatial dependances, and illustration of their application in category-identification tasks of three different kinds of image data - namely, photomicrographs of five kinds of sandstones, 1:20,000 panchromatic aerial photographs of eight land-use categories, and ERTS multispectral imagery containing several land-use categories. Two kinds of decision rules are used - one for which the decision regions are convex polyhedra (a piecewise-linear decision rule), and one for which the decision regions are rectangular parallelpipeds (a min-max decision rule). In each experiment the data set was divided into two parts, a training set and a test set. Test set identification accuracy is 89% for the photomicrographs, 82% for the aerial photographic imagery, and 83% for the satellite imagery. These results indicate that the easily computable textural features probably have a general applicability for a wide variety of image-classification applications.

  13. Elastofibroma dorsi: typical radiological features

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haykir, R.; Karakose, S.; Karabacakoglu, A.


    Full text: Elastofibroma dorsi is a rare benign and slow-growing fibro-proliferative lesion. It has a characteristic location (periscapular region) and a specific imaging appearance (sonography, CT, MRI) allowing accurate prospective diagnosis. The recognition of this benign lesion avoids unnecessary biopsy and/or surgery. We report two cases of bilateral elastofibroma dorsi illustrating characteristic imaging features on ultrasound, CT and MRI

  14. Renal angiomyoadenomatous tumour: Imaging features (United States)

    Sahni, V. Anik; Hirsch, Michelle S.; Silverman, Stuart G.


    Renal angiomyoadenomatous tumour is a rare, recently described neoplasm with a distinctive histological appearance. Although reported in the pathology literature, to our knowledge, no prior reports have described its imaging appearance. We describe the computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging features of an incidentally detected renal angiomyoadenomatous tumour that appeared as a well-marginated, solid T2-hypointense enhancing mass, in a 50-year-old woman. It is indistinguishable from a variety of benign and malignant renal neoplasms. PMID:23093565

  15. Cherubism: Clinicoradiographic Features and Treatment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Antonio Guimarães Cabral


    Full Text Available Objectives: Cherubism is a congenital childhood disease of autosomal dominant inheritance. This disease is characterized by painless bilateral enlargement of the jaws, in which bone is replaced with fibrous tissue. The condition has sui generis clinical, radiographic and histological features, of which the clinician should be aware for a better differential diagnosis in the presence of a fibro-osseous lesion affecting the bones of the maxillomandibular complex. The purpose of present paper was to review the literature and to report the most important aspects of cherubism in order to facilitate the study of this disease.Material and Methods: Literature was reviewed about cherubism, emphasizing the relevant clinicoradiographic features and treatment. Literature was selected through a search of PubMed and Scielo electronic databases. The keywords used for search were adolescent, cherubism, cherubism/physiopathology, cherubism/treatment, cherubism/radiography. A manual search of the reference lists of the identified articles and the authors’ article files and recent reviews was conducted to identify additional publications. Those studies that described new features about cherubism were included in this review.Results: In total 44 literature sources were obtained and reviewed. Studies that described new features about cherubism physiopathology, diagnostics and treatment were reviewed.Conclusions: Despite the exceptions, cherubism is a clinically well-characterized disease. In cases of a suspicion of cherubism, radiographic examination is essential since the clinical presentation, the location and distribution of the lesions may define the diagnosis. Histopathological examination is complementary. Nowadays, genetic tests should be used for final diagnosis of cherubism.

  16. Deep Feature Consistent Variational Autoencoder


    Hou, Xianxu; Shen, Linlin; Sun, Ke; Qiu, Guoping


    We present a novel method for constructing Variational Autoencoder (VAE). Instead of using pixel-by-pixel loss, we enforce deep feature consistency between the input and the output of a VAE, which ensures the VAE's output to preserve the spatial correlation characteristics of the input, thus leading the output to have a more natural visual appearance and better perceptual quality. Based on recent deep learning works such as style transfer, we employ a pre-trained deep convolutional neural net...

  17. Imaging features of aggressive angiomyxoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeyadevan, N.N.; Sohaib, S.A.A.; Thomas, J.M.; Jeyarajah, A.; Shepherd, J.H.; Fisher, C.


    AIM: To describe the imaging features of aggressive angiomyxoma in a rare benign mesenchymal tumour most frequently arising from the perineum in young female patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We reviewed the computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance (MR) imaging features of patients with aggressive angiomyxoma who were referred to our hospital. The imaging features were correlated with clinical information and pathology in all patients. RESULTS: Four CT and five MR studies were available for five patients (all women, mean age 39, range 24-55). Three patients had recurrent tumour at follow-up. CT and MR imaging demonstrated a well-defined mass-displacing adjacent structures. The tumour was of low attenuation relative to muscle on CT. On MR, the tumour was isointense relative to muscle on T1-weighted image, hyperintense on T2-weighted image and enhanced avidly after gadolinium contrast with a characteristic 'swirled' internal pattern. MR imaging demonstrates the extent of the tumour and its relation to the pelvic floor. Recurrent tumour has a similar appearance to the primary lesion. CONCLUSION: The MR appearances of aggressive angiomyxomas are characteristic, and the diagnosis should be considered in any young woman presenting with a well-defined mass arising from the perineum. Jeyadevan, N. N. etal. (2003). Clinical Radiology58, 157--162

  18. Sexual dimorphism in medulloblastoma features. (United States)

    Zannoni, Gian Franco; Ciucci, Alessandra; Marucci, Gianluca; Travaglia, Daniele; Stigliano, Egidio; Foschini, Maria Pia; Scambia, Giovanni; Gallo, Daniela


    Male sex is a risk factor for medulloblastoma (MB), and is also a negative predictor for clinical outcome. The aim of this study was to assess sex differences in tumour biological features and hormone receptor profiles in a cohort of MB patients. Sixty-four MBs and five normal cerebella were included in the study. Cell proliferation (Ki67), apoptosis (cleaved caspase-3) and microvessel density (CD31) were evaluated in tumours by immunohistochemistry. Tissues were analysed for oestrogen receptor (ER)α, ERβ1, ERβ2, ERβ5 and androgen receptor (AR) expression. The results demonstrated sex-specific features in MBs, with tumours from females showing a higher apoptosis/proliferation ratio and less tumour vascularization than tumours from males. MBs were negative for ERα and AR, but expressed ERβ isoforms at similar levels between the sexes. Altogether, these findings indicate that signalling mechanisms that control cell turnover and angiogenesis operate more efficiently in females than in males. The lack of sex differences in the hormone receptor profiles suggests that circulating oestrogens could be the major determinants of the sexual dimorphism observed in MB features. Here, we provide molecular support for epidemiological data showing sex differences in MB incidence and outcome, completely defining the hormone receptor profile of the tumours. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Evaluation of the UK Met Office's HadGEM3-RA and HadRM3P regional climate models within South America-CORDEX simulations: ENSO related interannual precipitation variability (United States)

    Bozkurt, D.; Rojas, M.


    This study aims to investigate and compare the ability of the UK Met Office's HadGEM3-RA and HadRM3P regional climate models (RCMs) to simulate mean and interannual variability of precipitation over South America with a special focus on Chile. The HadGEM3-RA is a regional version of the newly developed HadGEM3 global model and the HadRM3P is based on the earlier HadCM3 global model. The RCMs simulations were carried out at 0.44o x 0.44o degree resolution over South America-CORDEX domain for the period 1989-2008. The initial and boundary conditions were provided by ERA-Interim Reanalysis data available at 6-h intervals with a resolution of 1.5o x 1.5o in the horizontal and 37 pressure levels. We compare the results against a number of observational datasets, including gridded dataset of CRU, UDEL, TRMM and GPCP. Moreover, available station data is derived from Direccion General de Aguas (DGA) mainly for Central Chile, which is the heartland of Chile with the highest population and important economic activities. The analysis is mainly focused on evaluating the abilities of the RCMs in simulating spatial pattern and ENSO related precipitation variability in different subregions of South America-CORDEX domain. In general, both RCMs have a good skill in reproducing spatial pattern and annual cycle of observed precipitation in climatically different subregions. However, both RCMs tend to underestimate precipitation in the Amazon Basin, which is more pronounced in the HadRM3P simulations. On the contrary, the RCMs tend to overestimate the precipitation over the Andes and southern Chile. The overestimation could be related to the physical core of the RCMs, but the discrepancies could also arise due to insufficient station network, especially in the mountainous areas, potentially yielding smaller precipitation quantities in the observed data than the true ones. In terms of interannual variability, the models capture ENSO related wet and dry interannual precipitation

  20. Impacto de los eventos de El Niño Southern oscillation (ENSO sobre la leishmaniosis cutánea en Sucre, Venezuela, a través del uso de información satelital, 1994 - 2003

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gilberto Cabaniel S


    Full Text Available Objetivos: Describir los posibles impactos de El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO sobre la leishmaniosis cutánea (LC en Sucre, Venezuela en el período 1994-2003. Materiales y Métodos: La data climática se obtuvo de sistemas remotos y fue clasificada de acuerdo con la National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA en periodos El Niño, Neutral o La Niña, usando el Southern Oscillation Index (SOI como indicador de variabilidad. Los datos de LC fueron obtenidos de la Gerencia de Saneamiento Ambiental en Sucre. Se realizaron comparaciones de las variaciones anuales y desviaciones de las tendencias medias, entre la incidencia de LC y variabilidad climática, así como modelos de regresión. Resultados: Se registraron entre 1994 -2003 en Sucre 2212 casos de LC. Se observaron tres fases importantes de El Niño: 1994-1995, 1997-1998 y 2001-2003, la más relevante correspondió a 1997-1998, que fue seguido de un periodo frío y lluvioso en 1999 (La Niña. Durante 1999/2000, se registraron 360 casos de LC en Sucre, con importante variabilidad intraanual, se observó un incremento en 66,7% de los casos de LC (F=10,06, p=0,0051 asociado a la presencia de La Niña débil (poco frío y lluvioso. Los modelos mostraron que a mayores valores del SOI menor incidencia de LC (r 2 =0,3308, p=0,0504. El incremento sobre la tendencia media de las precipitaciones se asoció con incrementos sobre las tendencias de la LC durante 1994-2003 (p=0,0358. Conclusiones: Estos datos reflejan la importancia del ENSO sobre la incidencia de la LC, abriendo una nueva línea de investigación con posible impacto en la predicción y monitoreo con relevancia en salud pública.

  1. Java 7 New Features Cookbook

    CERN Document Server

    Reese, Richard M


    Each recipe comprises step-by-step instructions followed by an analysis of what was done in each task and other useful information. The book is designed so that you can read it chapter by chapter, or look at the list of recipes and refer to them in no particular order. Each example comes with its expected output to make your learning even easier. This book is designed to bring those who are familiar with Java up-to-speed on the new features found in Java 7.

  2. Integrated reporting and board features

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rares HURGHIS


    Full Text Available In the last two decades the concept of sustainability reporting gained more importance in the companies’ annual reports, a trend which is embedded also in integrated reporting. Issuing an integrated report became a necessity, because the report explains to the investors how the organization creates value over time. The governance structure, more exactly the board of directors, decides whether or not the company will issue an integrated report. Thus, are there certain features of the board that might influence the issue of an integrated report? Do the companies which issue an integrated report have certain features of the governance structure? Looking for an answer to these questions, we seek for any possible correlations between a disclosure index and the corporate governance structure characteristics, on a sample from the companies participating at the International Integrated Reporting Council Examples Database. The results highlight that only the size of the board influences the extent to which the issued integrated report is in accordance with the International Framework.

  3. MR features of ectopic pregnancy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tamai, Ken; Togashi, Kaori; Koyama, Takashi


    Ectopic pregnancy (EP), in which a fertilized ovum implants outside the uterine cavity, is the leading cause of pregnancy-related death in the first trimester. EP is usually suspected by a positive pregnancy test and an empty uterus on transvaginal sonography (TVS). Although TVS is the initial modality of choice, it may occasionally fail to demonstrate the implantation site. When TVS findings are indeterminate, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) may provide better delineation of the focus of EP owing to its excellent tissue contrast. The key MRI features of EP include gestational sac (GS)-like structures that typically appear as a cystic sac-like structure, frequently associated with surrounding acute hematoma of distinct low intensity on T2-weighted images. In tubal pregnancy, an enhanced tubal wall on postcontrast images may be another diagnostic finding. Ruptured EP is inevitably associated with acute hematoma outside these structures. In intrauterine EP, recognition of the relationship between GS-like structure and the myometrium can aid in differentiating from normal pregnancy. Diagnostic pitfalls include heterotopic pregnancy, decidual changes in endometrial cyst and theca lutein cysts mimicking GS-like structures. Knowledge of a spectrum of clinical and MRI features of EP is essential for establishing an accurate diagnosis and determining appropriate management. (orig.)

  4. Acromegaly: clinical features at diagnosis. (United States)

    Vilar, Lucio; Vilar, Clarice Freitas; Lyra, Ruy; Lyra, Raissa; Naves, Luciana A


    Acromegaly is a rare and underdiagnosed disorder caused, in more than 95% of cases, by a growth hormone (GH)-secreting pituitary adenoma. The GH hypersecretion leads to overproduction of insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1) which results in a multisystem disease characterized by somatic overgrowth, multiple comorbidities, physical disfigurement, and increased mortality. This article aims to review the clinical features of acromegaly at diagnosis. Acromegaly affects both males and females equally and the average age at diagnosis ranges from 40 to 50 years (up to 5% of cases acromegaly is often diagnosed five to more than ten years after its onset. The typical coarsening of facial features include furrowing of fronthead, pronounced brow protrusion, enlargement of the nose and the ears, thickening of the lips, skin wrinkles and nasolabial folds, as well as mandibular prognathism that leads to dental malocclusion and increased interdental spacing. Excessive growth of hands and feet (predominantly due to soft tissue swelling) is present in the vast majority of acromegalic patients. Gigantism accounts for up to 5% of cases and occurs when the excess of GH becomes manifest in the young, before the epiphyseal fusion. The disease also has rheumatologic, cardiovascular, respiratory, neoplastic, neurological, and metabolic manifestations which negatively impact its prognosis and patients quality of life. Less than 15% of acromegalic patients actively seek medical attention for change in appearance or enlargement of the extremities. The presentation of acromegaly is more often related to its systemic comorbidities or to local tumor effects.

  5. Writer identification using curvature-free features

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    He, Sheng; Schomaker, Lambertus


    Feature engineering takes a very important role in writer identification which has been widely studied in the literature. Previous works have shown that the joint feature distribution of two properties can improve the performance. The joint feature distribution makes feature relationships explicit

  6. Object feature extraction and recognition model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wan Min; Xiang Rujian; Wan Yongxing


    The characteristics of objects, especially flying objects, are analyzed, which include characteristics of spectrum, image and motion. Feature extraction is also achieved. To improve the speed of object recognition, a feature database is used to simplify the data in the source database. The feature vs. object relationship maps are stored in the feature database. An object recognition model based on the feature database is presented, and the way to achieve object recognition is also explained

  7. Psychopathological features in Noonan syndrome. (United States)

    Perrino, Francesca; Licchelli, Serena; Serra, Giulia; Piccini, Giorgia; Caciolo, Cristina; Pasqualetti, Patrizio; Cirillo, Flavia; Leoni, Chiara; Digilio, Maria Cristina; Zampino, Giuseppe; Tartaglia, Marco; Alfieri, Paolo; Vicari, Stefano


    Noonan syndrome (NS) is an autosomal dominant disorder characterized by short stature, skeletal and haematological/lymphatic defects, distinctive facies, cryptorchidism, and a wide spectrum of congenital heart defects. Recurrent features also include variable cognitive deficits and behavioural problems. Recent research has been focused on the assessment of prevalence, age of onset and characterization of psychiatric features in this disorder. Herein, we evaluated the prevalence of attention deficit and hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), anxiety and depressive symptoms and syndromes in a cohort of individuals with clinical and molecular diagnosis of NS. The Kiddie Schedule for Affective Disorders and Schizophrenia for School-Age Children Present and Lifetime version (K-SADS PL) has been used for the assessment of psychiatric disorders according to Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-IV). Multidimensional Anxiety Scale for Children (MASC) and the Children's Depression Inventory (CDI) have been assessed for the evaluation of anxiety and depressive symptoms and syndromes, whereas Conners Teacher and Parent Rating Scales-long version (CRS-R) have been used to evaluate ADHD. The study included 27 individuals (67% males) with an average age of 10.4 years (range 6-18 years) receiving molecular diagnosis of NS or a clinically related condition, evaluated and treated at the Neuropsychiatric Unit of Children's Hospital Bambino Gesù and at the Center for Rare Diseases of Fondazione Policlinico Universitario Agostino Gemelli, in Rome. Twenty individuals showed mutations in PTPN11, five in SOS1 and two in SHOC2. The mean IQ was 94 (Standard Deviation = 17, min = 56, max = 130). Seventy percent of the individuals (n = 19; 95% Confidence Interval = 52-85%) showed ADHD features, with six individuals reaching DSM-IV-TR criteria for ADHD disorder, and thirteen showing subsyndromal traits. Symptoms or syndrome of anxiety were present in 37% of the cohort

  8. Unique Features of Mobile Commerce

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DING Xiaojun; IIJIMA Junichi; HO Sho


    While the market potentials and impacts of web-based e-commerce are still in the ascendant, the advances in wireless technologies and mobile networks have brought about a new business opportunity and research attention, what is termed mobile commerce. Commonly, mobile commerce is considered to be another new application of existing web-based e-commerce onto wireless networks, but as an independent business area, mobile commerce has its own advantages and challenges as opposed to traditional e-commerce applications. This paper focuses on exploring the unique features of mobile commerce as. Compared with traditional e-commerce. Also, there are still some limitations arisen in m-commerce in contrast to web-based e-commerce. Finally, current state of mobile commerce in Japan is presented in brief, with an introduction of several cases involving mobile commerce applications in today 's marketplace.

  9. Integral fast reactor safety features

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cahalan, J.E.; Kramer, J.M.; Marchaterre, J.F.; Mueller, C.J.; Pedersen, D.R.; Sevy, R.H.; Wade, D.C.; Wei, T.Y.C.


    The Integral Fast Reactor (IFR) is an advanced liquid-metal-cooled reactor concept being developed at Argonne National Laboratory. The two major goals of the IFR development effort are improved economics and enhanced safety. In addition to liquid metal cooling, the principal design features that distinguish the IFR are: (1) a pool-type primary system, (2) an advanced ternary alloy metallic fuel, and (3) an integral fuel cycle with on-site fuel reprocessing and fabrication. This paper focuses on the technical aspects of the improved safety margins available in the IFR concept. This increased level of safety is made possible by (1) the liquid metal (sodium) coolant and pool-type primary system layout, which together facilitate passive decay heat removal, and (2) a sodium-bonded metallic fuel pin design with thermal and neutronic properties that provide passive core responses which control and mitigate the consequences of reactor accidents

  10. New learning resource features CERN

    CERN Multimedia

    Katarina Anthony


    A new educational website, STEM Works, has been launched this month, presenting science and technology in an industrial context for students aged 11-14. Developed with contributions from CERN, the site highlights the Laboratory as a “real-world” example of the opportunities available to science graduates. While the site was developed in Northern Ireland, STEM Works addresses issues of global relevance.   Students share their projects with Steve Myers, Richard Hanna (CCEA), and Catriona Ruane (Education Minister). STEM stands for Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics – the four cornerstones of the curriculum featured on the STEM Works website. It is part of a nationwide push in Northern Ireland to highlight how important STEM subjects are to both academia and industry. CERN worked closely with the Northern Ireland Council for the Curriculum, Examinations and Assessment (CCEA) to develop educational content for the site. “The CCEA STEM Works site i...

  11. The Machine / Job Features Mechanism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alef, M. [KIT, Karlsruhe; Cass, T. [CERN; Keijser, J. J. [NIKHEF, Amsterdam; McNab, A. [Manchester U.; Roiser, S. [CERN; Schwickerath, U. [CERN; Sfiligoi, I. [Fermilab


    Within the HEPiX virtualization group and the Worldwide LHC Computing Grid’s Machine/Job Features Task Force, a mechanism has been developed which provides access to detailed information about the current host and the current job to the job itself. This allows user payloads to access meta information, independent of the current batch system or virtual machine model. The information can be accessed either locally via the filesystem on a worker node, or remotely via HTTP(S) from a webserver. This paper describes the final version of the specification from 2016 which was published as an HEP Software Foundation technical note, and the design of the implementations of this version for batch and virtual machine platforms. We discuss early experiences with these implementations and how they can be exploited by experiment frameworks.

  12. Integral fast reactor safety features

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cahalan, J.E.; Kramer, J.M.; Marchaterre, J.F.; Mueller, C.J.; Pedersen, D.R.; Sevy, R.H.; Wade, D.C.; Wei, T.Y.C.


    The integral fast reactor (IFR) is an advanced liquid-metal-cooled reactor concept being developed at Argonne National Laboratory. The two major goals of the IFR development effort are improved economics and enhanced safety. In addition to liquid metal cooling, the principal design features that distinguish the IFR are: a pool-type primary system, and advanced ternary alloy metallic fuel, and an integral fuel cycle with on-site fuel reprocessing and fabrication. This paper focuses on the technical aspects of the improved safety margins available in the IFR concept. This increased level of safety is made possible by the liquid metal (sodium) coolant and pool-type primary system layout, which together facilitate passive decay heat removal, and a sodium-bonded metallic fuel pin design with thermal and neutronic properties that provide passive core responses which control and mitigate the consequences of reactor accidents


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tetiana Yurchenko


    Full Text Available The article namely deals with the peculiarities of legal regulation of the right to use someone else's land for agricultural purposes under the perpetual lease contract. Recognition of the legitimacy of perpetual lease as an intangible asset and, therefore, the object of accounting was justified. The features of the primary account perpetual lease rights were analyzed. It was found that for documenting transactions receipt, commissioning, de-recognition perpetual lease specialized forms of primary documents is not installed. The main aspects of accounting reflection of land under perpetual lease contracts were identified and ways of their improving were developed. The period on which the land is transferred for use under perpetual lease contract was proposed. During the study, general scientific methods – induction, deduction, synthesis, analysis, dialectical, historical, generalizations and specific methods of accounting – documentation, evaluation, accounting records were used. Keywords: accounting, land, perpetual lease, intangible assets, the right to use.

  14. Temporal feature integration for music genre classification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meng, Anders; Ahrendt, Peter; Larsen, Jan


    , but they capture neither the temporal dynamics nor dependencies among the individual feature dimensions. Here, a multivariate autoregressive feature model is proposed to solve this problem for music genre classification. This model gives two different feature sets, the diagonal autoregressive (DAR......) and multivariate autoregressive (MAR) features which are compared against the baseline mean-variance as well as two other temporal feature integration techniques. Reproducibility in performance ranking of temporal feature integration methods were demonstrated using two data sets with five and eleven music genres...

  15. Pleomorphic xanthoastrocytoma with anaplastic features

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng ZHI


    Full Text Available Objective  To explore the clinical pathological characteristics, immunophenotyping, diagnosis and differential diagnosis and prognosis of pleomorphic xanthoastrocytoma (PXA with anaplastic features.  Methods  HE staining was used for histological observation. The expressions of glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP, vimentin (Vim, CD34, epithelial membrane antigen (EMA, progestrone receptor (PR, neurofilment protein (NF, neuronal nuclei (NeuN, synaptophysin (Syn, Nestin (Nes, S-100 protein (S-100, P53 and Ki-67 labeling index were detected by immunohistochemical method. BRAF mutation was detected by polymerase chain reaction (PCR amplification.  Results  A 43-year-old male patient presented with repeatedly paroxysmal tic of limbs and disturbance of consciousness. Cranial MRI revealed multiple abnormal signals in left temporo-occipito-parietal lobe and posterior horn of lateral ventricle, with unclear borderline and cystic degeneration. Surgical removal of the lesion was performed. Histologically, the tumor was biphasic. One part was composed of spindle cells arranged in fascicles or as running water, with weird multinuclear giant cells. Abundant vacuolated lipidized cytoplasm could be seen. Mitosis and "map"-like necrosis were noted. Another part revealed the tumor cells were consistent in size and uniform in distribution, with loose background tissue. Immunohistochemistry showed tumor cells were diffusely positive for GFAP, Vim, S-100, Nes, CD34 and P53, and negative for EMA, Syn, NeuN and NF. Ki-67 labeling index was about 15%. Reticular fiber staining showed abundant reticular fibers in the tumor tissue. BRAF mutation detected by PCR amplification was not found.  Conclusions  Classified as grade Ⅱ in the World Health Organization (WHO classification, the prognosis of PXA is good. A diagnosis of PXA with anaplastic features should be considered when the tumor demonstrates mitotic activity > 5/10 high power field (HPF and/or areas of

  16. Clinical features of paralytic strabismus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin-Ling Wang


    Full Text Available AIM: To observe the clinical features of paralytic strabismus and analyze its etiology.METHODS: Eighty-nine cases(97 eyeswere diagnosed with paralytic strabismus and recruited in this study in the Department of Ophthalmology, the Fourth Affiliated Hospital, China Medical University between July 2008 and February 2013. The clinical data were recorded including the general and ophthalmic history, symptom, visual acuity, fundus, pupil, eyelid, visual field, eye movement, synoptophore, acting countervail head, ultrasound of eyeball and ocular muscle, color Doppler ultrasonography of the carotid artery, orbital computed tomography(CT, brain magnetic resonance imaging(MRI, blood biochemistry and immunologic tests.RESULTS: The medical history disclosed that among these cases, hypertension in 36 cases, diabetic mellitus in 28 cases, hyperlipidemia in 19 cases, heart diseases in 17 cases, ischemic cerebrovascular disease in 12 cases and hyperthyroidism in 3 cases. Symptoms included vertigo in 47 cases and binocular temporal amaurosis in 36 cases. The horizontal restriction was manifested in 38 cases 45 eyes, vertical restriction in 42 cases with 42 eyes, and horizontal-and-vertical restriction in 9 cases with 10 eyes. CONCLUSION: Brain vascular ischemic disease is one of the top reasons causing paralytic strabismus. Systemic disease history was found in a high proportion of the cases. It is of great essence to detect the life-threatening ischemia of vertebrobasilar artery system and take priority for treatment.

  17. The features of Saint Louis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierre-Yves Le Pogam


    Full Text Available The recent ninth centenary of the birth of Saint Louis, in 2014, gave the possibility to renew the study of the man and his reign, so important for French history, not in a nationalistic agenda or for a mere celebration, but in order to shed new light on a figure indeed profoundly studied but deserving a repeated attention, so much Louis IX lends to many-sided, even contradictory explanations. In the past, one has paid an almost maniacal attention to the point of the physical appearance of the king, looking in some images for a reflection of, or indeed a portrait of Saint Louis. Or, on the contrary and more recently, one has denied any validity to this trend of studies. In line with the essay I devoted on this question in the catalogue of the recent exhibition on Saint Louis in Paris, I would like here to go further in the analysis, especially regarding the meaning of details of the dress and bodily features of the saint king.

  18. Novel features of nuclear chromodynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brodsky, Stanley J. [Stanford University, SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, Stanford, CA (United States)


    I review a number of QCD topics where the nuclear environment provides new insights into fundamental aspects of the strong interactions. The topics include novel perspectives for nuclear physics, such as the hidden color of nuclear form factors, the relation of the nuclear force at short distances to quark interchange interactions, the effects of ''color transparency'' on the baryon-to-meson anomaly in hard heavy-ion collisions, flavor-dependent antishadowing, novel exotic multiquark states, the anomalous nuclear dependence of quarkonium hadroproduction, flavor-dependent antishadowing, and the breakdown of sum rules for nuclear structure functions. I also briefly discuss the insights into hadron physics and color confinement that one obtains from light-front holography, including supersymmetric features of the hadron spectrum. I also note that the virtual Compton amplitude on a proton (or nucleus) can be measured for two spacelike photons q{sup 2}{sub 1}, q{sup 2}{sub 2} < 0 using positronium-proton scattering [e{sup +}e{sup -}]p → e{sup +}e{sup -}p{sup '}. (orig.)

  19. Contextual cueing by global features (United States)

    Kunar, Melina A.; Flusberg, Stephen J.; Wolfe, Jeremy M.


    In visual search tasks, attention can be guided to a target item, appearing amidst distractors, on the basis of simple features (e.g. find the red letter among green). Chun and Jiang’s (1998) “contextual cueing” effect shows that RTs are also speeded if the spatial configuration of items in a scene is repeated over time. In these studies we ask if global properties of the scene can speed search (e.g. if the display is mostly red, then the target is at location X). In Experiment 1a, the overall background color of the display predicted the target location. Here the predictive color could appear 0, 400 or 800 msec in advance of the search array. Mean RTs are faster in predictive than in non-predictive conditions. However, there is little improvement in search slopes. The global color cue did not improve search efficiency. Experiments 1b-1f replicate this effect using different predictive properties (e.g. background orientation/texture, stimuli color etc.). The results show a strong RT effect of predictive background but (at best) only a weak improvement in search efficiency. A strong improvement in efficiency was found, however, when the informative background was presented 1500 msec prior to the onset of the search stimuli and when observers were given explicit instructions to use the cue (Experiment 2). PMID:17355043

  20. Shielding features of quarry stone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hernandez V, C.; Contreras S, H.; Hernandez A, L.; Baltazar R, A.; Escareno J, E.; Mares E, C. A.; Vega C, H. R.


    Quarry stone lineal attenuation coefficient for gamma-rays has been obtained. In Zacatecas, quarry stone is widely utilized as a decorative item in buildings, however its shielding features against gamma-rays unknown. The aim of this work is to determine the shielding properties of quarry stone against γ-rays using Monte Carlo calculations where a detailed model of a good geometry experimental setup was carried out. In the calculations 10 pieces 10 X 10 cm 2 of different thickness were utilized to evaluate the photons transmission as the quarry stone thickness is increased. It was noticed that transmitted photons decay away as the shield thickness is increased, these results were fitted to an exponential function were the linear attenuation coefficient was estimated. Also, using XCOM code the linear attenuation coefficient from several keV up to 100 MeV was estimated. From the comparison between Monte Carlo results and XCOM calculations a good agreement was found. For 0.662 MeV γ-rays the attenuation coefficient of quarry stone, whose density is 2.413 g-cm -3 , is 0.1798 cm -1 , this mean a X 1/2 = 3.9 cm, X 1/4 = 7.7 cm, X 1/10 = 12.8 cm, and X 1/100 = 25.6 cm. Having the information of quarry stone performance as shielding give the chance to use this material to shield X and γ-ray facilities. (Author)

  1. features using RBF-SA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael do Espírito Santo


    Full Text Available We present in this work a new type of classes discriminator based upon nonlinear and combinational optimization techniques: radial basis functions-simulated annealing (RBF-SA. The combinational optimization method is used here as a preestimation of some parameters of the network classifier. We compare the classifier performance with and without pre-estimation. For training the classifiers, adopting the leave-one-out procedure, we have used case examples such as mammographic masses (malignant and benign. The classifier is trained with shape factors and edge-sharpness measures extracted from 57 regions of interest (ROI (37 malignant and 20 benign, manually delineated, that describe mammographic masses and tumor features in terms of polygonal models for shape factors (compactness [CC], Fourier description [FF], fractional concavity [FCC] and speculated index [SI] and edge sharpness-acutance (A . The classifier performance is compared in terms of the area under the receive operating characteristic (ROC curve – (A. Higher values of A correspond to a better performance of classifier. Experiments with mammographic tumor and masses show that the best result of 0.9776 is obtained with RBF-SA when RBF parameters such as centers and spread matrix are pre-estimated, which is significantly better than the results obtained with no pre-estimation or only pre-estimation of the RBF centers, which are, 0.7071 and 0.9552 respectively.

  2. Imaging features of musculoskeletal tuberculosis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vuyst, Dimitri De; Vanhoenacker, Filip; Bernaerts, Anja; Gielen, Jan; Schepper, Arthur M. de


    The purpose of this article is to review the imaging characteristics of musculoskeletal tuberculosis. Skeletal tuberculosis represents one-third of all cases of tuberculosis occurring in extrapulmonary sites. Hematogenous spread from a distant focus elsewhere in the body is the cornerstone in the understanding of imaging features of musculoskeletal tuberculosis. The most common presentations are tuberculous spondylitis, arthritis, osteomyelitis, and soft tissue involvement. The diagnostic value of the different imaging techniques, which include conventional radiography, CT, and MR imaging, are emphasized. Whereas conventional radiography is the mainstay in the diagnosis of tuberculous arthritis and osteomyelitis, MR imaging may detect associated bone marrow and soft tissue abnormalities. MR imaging is generally accepted as the imaging modality of choice for diagnosis, demonstration of the extent of the disease of tuberculous spondylitis, and soft tissue tuberculosis. Moreover, it may be very helpful in the differential diagnosis with pyogenic spondylodiscitis, as it may easily demonstrate anterior corner destruction, the relative preservation of the intervertebral disk, multilevel involvement with or without skip lesions, and a large soft tissue abscess, as these are all arguments in favor of a tuberculous spondylitis. On the other hand, CT is still superior in the demonstration of calcifications, which are found in chronic tuberculous abscesses. (orig.)

  3. CT features of appendiceal mucocele

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, Won Jong; Byun, Jae Young; Jung, Jung Im; Lee, Hae Gyu; Park, Young Ha; Shin, Kyung Sub [Catholic University Medical College, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)


    To evaluate the usefulness of CT features of appendiceal mucocele in the diagnosis and evaluation of complications. We retrospectively reviewed CT findings and compared with operative findings in 7 cases of pathologically proven appendiceal mucocele. CT findings such as location and extent of the lesion, tissue density, thickness or calcification of the wall, presence of adjacent inflammatory infiltration, and visualization of normal vermiform appendix were analyzed. Appendiceal mucocele was found as homogeneous low density cystic mass adjacent to the cecum, which has no surrounding inflammatory infiltration except in one case of perforation and one case of intussusception. Mean CT number measured in 4 cases was 21 Hounsfield unit. Thin curvilinear calcifications were noted along the cystic wall in 2 cases. Normal vermiform appendix couldn't be demonstrated in all cases. Appendiceal mucocele is characterized by homogeneously low density and thin walled cystic tumor adjacent to cecum without surrounding inflammatory infiltration, and absence of normal vermiform appendix on CT. Therefore, CT is valuable in preventing operative complications of appendiceal mucocele.

  4. Features and development of Coot

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Emsley, P.; Lohkamp, B.; Scott, W. G.; Cowtan, K.


    Coot is a molecular-graphics program designed to assist in the building of protein and other macromolecular models. The current state of development and available features are presented. Coot is a molecular-graphics application for model building and validation of biological macromolecules. The program displays electron-density maps and atomic models and allows model manipulations such as idealization, real-space refinement, manual rotation/translation, rigid-body fitting, ligand search, solvation, mutations, rotamers and Ramachandran idealization. Furthermore, tools are provided for model validation as well as interfaces to external programs for refinement, validation and graphics. The software is designed to be easy to learn for novice users, which is achieved by ensuring that tools for common tasks are ‘discoverable’ through familiar user-interface elements (menus and toolbars) or by intuitive behaviour (mouse controls). Recent developments have focused on providing tools for expert users, with customisable key bindings, extensions and an extensive scripting interface. The software is under rapid development, but has already achieved very widespread use within the crystallographic community. The current state of the software is presented, with a description of the facilities available and of some of the underlying methods employed

  5. PHISICS: New Features and Advancements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    C. Rabiti; Y. Wang; G. Palmiotti; H. Hiruta; J. Cogliati; A. Alfonsi; A. EPiney; T. Grimmett


    The PHISICS (Parallel and Highly Innovative Simulation for INL Code System) software is under an intensive development at INL. In the last months new features have been added and improvements of the previously existing one performed. The modular approach has created a friendly development environment that allows a quick expansion of the capabilities. In the last months a little amount of work has been dedicated to the improvement of the spherical harmonics based nodal transport solver while the implementation of a solver based on the self adjoint formulation of the discrete ordinate is in the test phase on structured mesh. PHISICS now include a depletion solver with the option to use two different algorithms for the solution of the Bateman equation: the Taylor development of the exponential matrix and the Chebyshev Rational Approximation Method. The coupling with RELAP5 is also available at least in the steady state search mode. The coupling between RELAP5 and PHISICS can also take advantage of the new cross section interpolation module so that the coupling could be performed using an arbitrary number of energy groups.

  6. Intraseasonal variability of organized convective systems in the Central Andes: Relationship to Regional Dynamical Features (United States)

    Mohr, K. I.; Slayback, D. A.; Nicholls, S.; Yager, K.


    The Andes extend from the west coast of Colombia (10N) to the southern tip of Chile (53S). In southern Peru and Bolivia, the Central Andes is split into separate eastern and western cordilleras, with a high plateau (≥ 3000 m), the Altiplano, between them. Because 90% of the Earth's tropical mountain glaciers are located in the Central Andes, our study focuses on this region, defining its zonal extent as 7S-21S and the meridional extent as the terrain 1000 m and greater. Although intense convection occurs during the wet season in the Altiplano, it is not included in the lists of regions with frequent or the most intense convection. The scarcity of in-situ observations with sufficient density and temporal resolution to resolve individual storms or even mesoscale-organized cloud systems and documented biases in microwave-based rainfall products in poorly gauged mountainous regions have impeded the development of an extensive literature on convection and convective systems in this region. With the tropical glaciers receding at unprecedented rates, leaving seasonal precipitation as an increasingly important input to the water balance in alpine valley ecosystems and streams, understanding the nature and characteristics of the seasonal precipitation becomes increasingly important for the rural economies in this region. Previous work in analyzing precipitation in the Central Andes has emphasized interannual variability with respect to ENSO, this is the first study to focus on shorter scale variability with respect to organized convection. The present study took advantage of the University of Utah's Precipitation Features database compiled from 14 years of TRMM observations (1998-2012), supplemented by field observations of rainfall and streamflow, historical gauge data, and long-term WRF-simulations, to analyze the intraseasonal variability of precipitating systems and their relationship regional dynamical features such as the Bolivian High. Through time series and

  7. Hypothesis testing for differentially correlated features. (United States)

    Sheng, Elisa; Witten, Daniela; Zhou, Xiao-Hua


    In a multivariate setting, we consider the task of identifying features whose correlations with the other features differ across conditions. Such correlation shifts may occur independently of mean shifts, or differences in the means of the individual features across conditions. Previous approaches for detecting correlation shifts consider features simultaneously, by computing a correlation-based test statistic for each feature. However, since correlations involve two features, such approaches do not lend themselves to identifying which feature is the culprit. In this article, we instead consider a serial testing approach, by comparing columns of the sample correlation matrix across two conditions, and removing one feature at a time. Our method provides a novel perspective and favorable empirical results compared with competing approaches. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail:

  8. Does Attention Serve to Integrate Features? (United States)

    Navon, David; Treisman, Anne


    An article and two commentaries consider the attentional feature-integration theory proposed by A. Treisman and colleagues. Hypotheses about the encoding of conjunctions are reviewed. Whether or not data support perceptual feature-integration is argued. (SLD)

  9. Cascaded face alignment via intimacy definition feature (United States)

    Li, Hailiang; Lam, Kin-Man; Chiu, Man-Yau; Wu, Kangheng; Lei, Zhibin


    Recent years have witnessed the emerging popularity of regression-based face aligners, which directly learn mappings between facial appearance and shape-increment manifolds. We propose a random-forest based, cascaded regression model for face alignment by using a locally lightweight feature, namely intimacy definition feature. This feature is more discriminative than the pose-indexed feature, more efficient than the histogram of oriented gradients feature and the scale-invariant feature transform feature, and more compact than the local binary feature (LBF). Experimental validation of our algorithm shows that our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance when testing on some challenging datasets. Compared with the LBF-based algorithm, our method achieves about twice the speed, 20% improvement in terms of alignment accuracy and saves an order of magnitude on memory requirement.

  10. Temporal Feature Integration for Music Organisation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meng, Anders


    This Ph.D. thesis focuses on temporal feature integration for music organisation. Temporal feature integration is the process of combining all the feature vectors of a given time-frame into a single new feature vector in order to capture relevant information in the frame. Several existing methods...... for handling sequences of features are formulated in the temporal feature integration framework. Two datasets for music genre classification have been considered as valid test-beds for music organisation. Human evaluations of these, have been obtained to access the subjectivity on the datasets. Temporal...... ranking' approach is proposed for ranking the short-time features at larger time-scales according to their discriminative power in a music genre classification task. The multivariate AR (MAR) model has been proposed for temporal feature integration. It effectively models local dynamical structure...

  11. Effective Feature Preprocessing for Time Series Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Junhua; Dong, Zhaoyang; Xu, Zhao


    Time series forecasting is an important area in data mining research. Feature preprocessing techniques have significant influence on forecasting accuracy, therefore are essential in a forecasting model. Although several feature preprocessing techniques have been applied in time series forecasting...... performance in time series forecasting. It is demonstrated in our experiment that, effective feature preprocessing can significantly enhance forecasting accuracy. This research can be a useful guidance for researchers on effectively selecting feature preprocessing techniques and integrating them with time...... series forecasting models....

  12. Textural features for radar image analysis (United States)

    Shanmugan, K. S.; Narayanan, V.; Frost, V. S.; Stiles, J. A.; Holtzman, J. C.


    Texture is seen as an important spatial feature useful for identifying objects or regions of interest in an image. While textural features have been widely used in analyzing a variety of photographic images, they have not been used in processing radar images. A procedure for extracting a set of textural features for characterizing small areas in radar images is presented, and it is shown that these features can be used in classifying segments of radar images corresponding to different geological formations.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ratri Enggar Pawening


    Full Text Available Datasets with heterogeneous features can affect feature selection results that are not appropriate because it is difficult to evaluate heterogeneous features concurrently. Feature transformation (FT is another way to handle heterogeneous features subset selection. The results of transformation from non-numerical into numerical features may produce redundancy to the original numerical features. In this paper, we propose a method to select feature subset based on mutual information (MI for classifying heterogeneous features. We use unsupervised feature transformation (UFT methods and joint mutual information maximation (JMIM methods. UFT methods is used to transform non-numerical features into numerical features. JMIM methods is used to select feature subset with a consideration of the class label. The transformed and the original features are combined entirely, then determine features subset by using JMIM methods, and classify them using support vector machine (SVM algorithm. The classification accuracy are measured for any number of selected feature subset and compared between UFT-JMIM methods and Dummy-JMIM methods. The average classification accuracy for all experiments in this study that can be achieved by UFT-JMIM methods is about 84.47% and Dummy-JMIM methods is about 84.24%. This result shows that UFT-JMIM methods can minimize information loss between transformed and original features, and select feature subset to avoid redundant and irrelevant features.

  14. Novel Features for Brain-Computer Interfaces (United States)

    Woon, W. L.; Cichocki, A.


    While conventional approaches of BCI feature extraction are based on the power spectrum, we have tried using nonlinear features for classifying BCI data. In this paper, we report our test results and findings, which indicate that the proposed method is a potentially useful addition to current feature extraction techniques. PMID:18364991

  15. Patterns of Dysmorphic Features in Schizophrenia (United States)

    Scutt, L.E.; Chow, E.W.C.; Weksberg, R.; Honer, W.G.; Bassett, Anne S.


    Congenital dysmorphic features are prevalent in schizophrenia and may reflect underlying neurodevelopmental abnormalities. A cluster analysis approach delineating patterns of dysmorphic features has been used in genetics to classify individuals into more etiologically homogeneous subgroups. In the present study, this approach was applied to schizophrenia, using a sample with a suspected genetic syndrome as a testable model. Subjects (n = 159) with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder were ascertained from chronic patient populations (random, n=123) or referred with possible 22q11 deletion syndrome (referred, n = 36). All subjects were evaluated for presence or absence of 70 reliably assessed dysmorphic features, which were used in a three-step cluster analysis. The analysis produced four major clusters with different patterns of dysmorphic features. Significant between-cluster differences were found for rates of 37 dysmorphic features (P dysmorphic features (P = 0.0001), and validating features not used in the cluster analysis: mild mental retardation (P = 0.001) and congenital heart defects (P = 0.002). Two clusters (1 and 4) appeared to represent more developmental subgroups of schizophrenia with elevated rates of dysmorphic features and validating features. Cluster 1 (n = 27) comprised mostly referred subjects. Cluster 4 (n= 18) had a different pattern of dysmorphic features; one subject had a mosaic Turner syndrome variant. Two other clusters had lower rates and patterns of features consistent with those found in previous studies of schizophrenia. Delineating patterns of dysmorphic features may help identify subgroups that could represent neurodevelopmental forms of schizophrenia with more homogeneous origins. PMID:11803519

  16. Review of research in feature based design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Salomons, O.W.; van Houten, Frederikus J.A.M.; Kals, H.J.J.


    Research in feature-based design is reviewed. Feature-based design is regarded as a key factor towards CAD/CAPP integration from a process planning point of view. From a design point of view, feature-based design offers possibilities for supporting the design process better than current CAD systems

  17. MRI features associated with acute appendicitis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leeuwenburgh, Marjolein M. N.; Jensch, Sebastiaan; Gratama, Jan W. C.; Spilt, Aart; Wiarda, Bart M.; van Es, H. Wouter; Cobben, Lodewijk P. J.; Bossuyt, Patrick M. M.; Boermeester, Marja A.; Stoker, Jaap; Bouma, Wim H.; Houdijk, Alexander P. J.; Richir, Milan C.; Stockmann, Hein B. A. C.; Wiezer, Marinus J.; Verhagen, Thijs


    To identify MRI features associated with appendicitis. Features expected to be associated with appendicitis were recorded in consensus by two expert radiologists on 223 abdominal MRIs in patients with suspected appendicitis. Nine MRI features were studied: appendix diameter >7 mm, appendicolith,


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taha A. Al-Tayyar


    Full Text Available Todefine the biological features of phytoplankton in Mosul  Dam  Lake, monthly samples were collectedalong a year from September 2003 to August 2004. Consisting thermalstratification and turn over periods from four locations in the main lake andanother location in the regulating lake. Total numbers of algae  reached 2300 cell/ml in the main lake and 1100cell/ml in the regulating lake.Bacillariophyta were dominant with a maximum number of 1400 cell/ml in autumn. Chlorophytawere dominant in autumn also with 550 cell/ml. Ten genus of Chlorophyta wereappeared in this water body: Cosmarium, Chlorella, Spirogyra, Scendesmus, Pediastrum, Tetraedron, Quadrigula, Ankiseradosm, Pandorina, and Straurastrum.Seven genus of Bacillariophyta were noticeable. Some genus of Cyanophyta was recorded as Aphanocapsa. In addition someEuglenophyta spp. were occurred in the main lake and the regulating lake also. On thebasis of these algae abundance, the lake is undergoing cultural Eutrophication.It has passed in mesotrophic state (the middle trophic state ofEutrophication. Some genera which were appeared are the indication ofeutrophic state.Totalplate count bacteria ranged from 400-1700 cell/ ml in the main lake and 200-950 cell/ml in the regulating lakewere also recorded. Coliform bacteria were founded with most probablenumber  reached 460 cell/100ml in themain lake and 150 cell/100ml in the regulating lake. Therefore, the lake wateris classified as moderate pure and considering a good source of raw water supplywith all treatment units and safe for swimming and recreational uses.

  19. Clinicopathologic Features of Pediatric Oligodendrogliomas (United States)

    Rodriguez, Fausto J.; Tihan, Tarik; Lin, Doris; McDonald, William; Nigro, Janice; Feuerstein, Burt; Jackson, Sadhana; Cohen, Kenneth; Burger, Peter C.


    Oligodendrogliomas are an important adult form of diffuse gliomas with a distinctive clinical and genetic profile. Histologically similar tumors occurring rarely in children are incompletely characterized. We studied 50 patients with oligodendrogliomas (median age at diagnosis 8 y, range 7mo to 20 y). Tumors resembling dysembryoplastic neuroepithelial tumors or pilocytic astrocytomas or those having a “mixed” histology were excluded. Tumors at first diagnosis were low grade (n=38) or anaplastic (n=12). Histologic features included uniform round cells with perinuclear halos (100%), secondary structures (predominantly perineuronal satellitosis) (90%), calcifications (46%), and microcysts (44%). Sequential surgical specimens were obtained in 8 low-grade oligodendroglioma patients, with only 1 progressing to anaplasia. Studies for 1p19q performed in 40 cases demonstrated intact 1p19q loci in 29 (73%), 1p19q codeletion in 10 (25%), and 1p deletion with intact 19q in 1 (2%). Except for 2 young patients (3 and 11 y of age), patients with 1p19q codeletion were older than 16 years at diagnosis. Mutant IDH1 (R132H) protein immunohistochemistry was positive in 4 (of 22) (18%) cases, 3 of which also had 1p19q codeletion, whereas 1p19q status was not available on the fourth case. There was a nonsignificant trend for worse overall survival in grade III tumors, but no significant association with age, extent of resection, or 1p19q status. In summary, oligodendrogliomas with classic histology occur in the pediatric population but lack 1p19q codeletion and IDH1 (R132H) mutations in most instances. They are predominantly low grade, recur/clinically progress in a subset, but demonstrate a relatively low frequency of histologic progression. PMID:24805856

  20. Clinical Features of Fatal Asthma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiung-Zuei Chen


    Full Text Available To characterize the clinical features of fatal asthma, we retrospectively analyzed the clinical characteristics of patients who died of an acute asthma attack in our hospital during a 15-year period from 1989 to 2003. Twelve patients had fatal asthma during this period, including eight who were dead on arrival in the emergency room (ER and three who died within 1 hour of admission to the ER. Patients were categorized into three groups according to the clinical presentations during the fatal attack: (1 rapid (< 3 hours decompensation in four patients; (2 gradual development of respiratory failure over several days in two patients; and (3 acute deterioration after unstable asthma lasting several days in six patients. All patients in groups 1 and 2 had reported previous near-fatal attacks. The proportion of young patients was highest in group 3, with half of them (3/6 younger than 35 years of age. Only one patient in group 3 had had a previous near-fatal attack. Five of the seven patients, with previous near-fatal attacks, had a pattern of decompensation during their fatal attack that was similar to their previous attacks. In conclusion, nearly all patients with fatal asthma in this study died outside of the hospital or within 1 hour after admission to the ER. Patients had patterns of decompensation during the fatal attack that were similar to those of their previous attacks. Early detection of warning signs, early admission to the ER, adequate treatment, and extremely close observation of patients, especially within 1 hour after ER arrival, may prevent or decrease the incidence of fatal asthmatic attack.

  1. Imaging features of cardiac myxoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang Youyou; Zheng Lili; Li Xiangmin; Zhou Xuhui; Kuang Jianyi; Zhang Wenzhao


    Objective: To study the imaging features of cardiac myxoma and their diagnostic values. Methods: Twenty-two patrents with cardiac myxoma were reviewed retrospectively for the clinical, pathologic, and radiologic findings. Posteroanterior and lateral chest radiographs, American Imatron C-150 XP Electron Beam CT examination, and Germany Siemens 1.5T Magnetom Vision MR scan were performed on every patient. Results: (1) Radiographs of 17 patients with left atrial myxoma showed evidence of mitral valve obstruction in 14(82.3%), radiographs of 5 patients with right atrial myxoma demonstrated right atrium enlargement in 3(60%) respectively. (2) CT scans of 22 myxomas demonstrated 18 (81.8%) lesions were hypoattenuated and 4 (19.1%) were isoattenuated relative to the myocardium. Calcification or ossification was seen in 3 patients. All myxomas apart from massive one were found attaching to the atrial septum. Movie mode could dis- play the movement of myxoma across the atrioventicular valves. (3) MRI studies of 22 myxomas showed 19 (86.3%) heterogeneous signal intensity and 3 (13.7%) homogeneous. They exhibited slight high or homogeneous signal intensity with both T 1 - and T 2 -weighted sequences, and low signal intensity with cine gradient recalled echo sequences. Point of attachment was visible in 21 (95.4%) cases. Conclusion: The typical radiograph sign of cardiac myxomas is mitral valve obstruction, CT and MR can demonstrate intracavitary lobular masses attacthing to artrial spetum. The latter two kinds of examinations not only provide accurate assessment of the size, location, and attachment point of these lesions, but also have important qualitative diagnostic advantage. (authors)


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ekaterina B. Makarova


    Full Text Available Small business is the basis for the development of the modern economy of Russia. In modern conditions, small enterprises can be credited in various credit institutions, the most significant and popular among which are banks and microfinance organizations. The volume of the microfinance market is many times smaller than the banking one, although the number of registered microfinance organizations exceeds the number of banking credit institutions by more than 3 times. Microfinance institutions are actively developing, although in recent years, due to the economic and political situation, there has been a slowdown in their growth rates. To date, microfinance organizations are becoming a more significant element of the financial infrastructure that supports and stimulates the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises, which in turn serves as an effective tool for combating poverty and improving the living standards of the country’s population. Microfinance in the narrow interpretation is understood only as the provision of small monetary loans (loans, and in a broader context, “microfinance” includes, in addition to direct lending, operations to attract savings, payments, insurance, leasing and a number of other financial services. This article is devoted to the specifics of microfinance in Russia. On the basis of a comprehensive analysis of the domestic microfinance system with the systems of a developed and a developing country, namely, the USA and India, the features of providing microfinance services for small and medium businesses, as well as for nonprotected sections of the population, are revealed. The analysis of foreign experience is very important for Russia since the mechanisms of microfinance in this country are only being formed.

  3. Remodularizing Java programs for comprehension of features

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olszak, Andrzej; Jørgensen, Bo Nørregaard


    . In absence of these mechanisms, feature implementations tend to be scattered and tangled in terms of object-oriented abstractions, making the code implementing features difficult to locate and comprehend. In this paper we present a semi-automatic method for feature-oriented remodularization of Java programs....... Our method uses execution traces to locate implementations of features, and Java packages to establish explicit feature modules. To evaluate usefulness of the approach, we present a case study where we apply our method to two real-world software systems. The obtained results indicate a significant...

  4. Patch layout generation by detecting feature networks

    KAUST Repository

    Cao, Yuanhao


    The patch layout of 3D surfaces reveals the high-level geometric and topological structures. In this paper, we study the patch layout computation by detecting and enclosing feature loops on surfaces. We present a hybrid framework which combines several key ingredients, including feature detection, feature filtering, feature curve extension, patch subdivision and boundary smoothing. Our framework is able to compute patch layouts through concave features as previous approaches, but also able to generate nice layouts through smoothing regions. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework by comparing with the state-of-the-art methods.

  5. Feature coding for image representation and recognition

    CERN Document Server

    Huang, Yongzhen


    This brief presents a comprehensive introduction to feature coding, which serves as a key module for the typical object recognition pipeline. The text offers a rich blend of theory and practice while reflects the recent developments on feature coding, covering the following five aspects: (1) Review the state-of-the-art, analyzing the motivations and mathematical representations of various feature coding methods; (2) Explore how various feature coding algorithms evolve along years; (3) Summarize the main characteristics of typical feature coding algorithms and categorize them accordingly; (4) D

  6. Spinoff 2001: Special Millennium Feature (United States)


    Research and Processing Laboratory. The new laboratory is the first step toward the development of a proposed 400-acre Space Commerce Park, located at Kennedy Space Center. Spinoff, once again, successfully showcases the variety of commercial successes and benefits resulting from the transfer of NASA technology to private industry. It is with great pride and pleasure that we present Spinoff 2001 with a Special Millennium Feature. With help from U.S. industry and commercial technology programs, NASA will continue to assist in the presentation of innovative new products to our nation.

  7. Controllable edge feature sharpening for dental applications. (United States)

    Fan, Ran; Jin, Xiaogang


    This paper presents a new approach to sharpen blurred edge features in scanned tooth preparation surfaces generated by structured-light scanners. It aims to efficiently enhance the edge features so that the embedded feature lines can be easily identified in dental CAD systems, and to avoid unnatural oversharpening geometry. We first separate the feature regions using graph-cut segmentation, which does not require a user-defined threshold. Then, we filter the face normal vectors to propagate the geometry from the smooth region to the feature region. In order to control the degree of the sharpness, we propose a feature distance measure which is based on normal tensor voting. Finally, the vertex positions are updated according to the modified face normal vectors. We have applied the approach to scanned tooth preparation models. The results show that the blurred edge features are enhanced without unnatural oversharpening geometry.

  8. Controllable Edge Feature Sharpening for Dental Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ran Fan


    Full Text Available This paper presents a new approach to sharpen blurred edge features in scanned tooth preparation surfaces generated by structured-light scanners. It aims to efficiently enhance the edge features so that the embedded feature lines can be easily identified in dental CAD systems, and to avoid unnatural oversharpening geometry. We first separate the feature regions using graph-cut segmentation, which does not require a user-defined threshold. Then, we filter the face normal vectors to propagate the geometry from the smooth region to the feature region. In order to control the degree of the sharpness, we propose a feature distance measure which is based on normal tensor voting. Finally, the vertex positions are updated according to the modified face normal vectors. We have applied the approach to scanned tooth preparation models. The results show that the blurred edge features are enhanced without unnatural oversharpening geometry.

  9. Features for detecting smoke in laparoscopic videos

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jalal Nour Aldeen


    Full Text Available Video-based smoke detection in laparoscopic surgery has different potential applications, such as the automatic addressing of surgical events associated with the electrocauterization task and the development of automatic smoke removal. In the literature, video-based smoke detection has been studied widely for fire surveillance systems. Nevertheless, the proposed methods are insufficient for smoke detection in laparoscopic videos because they often depend on assumptions which rarely hold in laparoscopic surgery such as static camera. In this paper, ten visual features based on motion, texture and colour of smoke are proposed and evaluated for smoke detection in laparoscopic videos. These features are RGB channels, energy-based feature, texture features based on gray level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM, HSV colour space feature, features based on the detection of moving regions using optical flow and the smoke colour in HSV colour space. These features were tested on four laparoscopic cholecystectomy videos. Experimental observations show that each feature can provide valuable information in performing the smoke detection task. However, each feature has weaknesses to detect the presence of smoke in some cases. By combining all proposed features smoke with high and even low density can be identified robustly and the classification accuracy increases significantly.

  10. Light field morphing using 2D features. (United States)

    Wang, Lifeng; Lin, Stephen; Lee, Seungyong; Guo, Baining; Shum, Heung-Yeung


    We present a 2D feature-based technique for morphing 3D objects represented by light fields. Existing light field morphing methods require the user to specify corresponding 3D feature elements to guide morph computation. Since slight errors in 3D specification can lead to significant morphing artifacts, we propose a scheme based on 2D feature elements that is less sensitive to imprecise marking of features. First, 2D features are specified by the user in a number of key views in the source and target light fields. Then the two light fields are warped view by view as guided by the corresponding 2D features. Finally, the two warped light fields are blended together to yield the desired light field morph. Two key issues in light field morphing are feature specification and warping of light field rays. For feature specification, we introduce a user interface for delineating 2D features in key views of a light field, which are automatically interpolated to other views. For ray warping, we describe a 2D technique that accounts for visibility changes and present a comparison to the ideal morphing of light fields. Light field morphing based on 2D features makes it simple to incorporate previous image morphing techniques such as nonuniform blending, as well as to morph between an image and a light field.

  11. Linkages Between Hemispheric and Regional Circulation Features Over the Past Millennium Inferred From a Network of Long Tree-Ring Chronologies in the Southwestern USA. (United States)

    Ni, F.; Hughes, M. K.; Funkhouser, G.


    Features of large-scale atmospheric/oceanic circulation at hemispheric and regional scale affect the many moisture-sensitive, well-replicated millennial length tree-ring records in the Western US that span all the last millennium. This tree-ring variability may be associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Southwest Trough Index, all of which directly influence climate variations in the American Southwest. 1000-year atmospheric/oceanic time series based in these associations were then linked with the observed and previously reconstructed summer Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) in western US, providing a decadal to multi-century perspective on climate/circulation variability. Hemispheric and regional climate association tend to be stronger during sudden reversals from dry to wet which were not uncommon throughout the millennium, such as the 1970s PDO reversal which followed the 1950s drought, the 1610s wet interval that followed the 16th century mega drought, and the late 11th, early 12th centuries. Proxy and instrumental data suggest that significant regional anomalous dry (wet) periods over the last millennium (for example in the 1580s and 1950s) coincided with infrequent (frequent) short-wave trough activity. This probably teleconnected with cold sea surface temperature (SST) and high sea level pressure (SLP) over the eastern North Pacific that was enhanced by a greater number of in-phase cold-ENSO and PDO events.

  12. Classification Influence of Features on Given Emotions and Its Application in Feature Selection (United States)

    Xing, Yin; Chen, Chuang; Liu, Li-Long


    In order to solve the problem that there is a large amount of redundant data in high-dimensional speech emotion features, we analyze deeply the extracted speech emotion features and select better features. Firstly, a given emotion is classified by each feature. Secondly, the recognition rate is ranked in descending order. Then, the optimal threshold of features is determined by rate criterion. Finally, the better features are obtained. When applied in Berlin and Chinese emotional data set, the experimental results show that the feature selection method outperforms the other traditional methods.

  13. Definitions of engineered safety features and related features for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    In light water moderated, light water cooled nuclear power plants, definitions are given of engineered safety features which are designed to suppress or prevent dispersion of radioactive materials due to damage etc. of fuel at the times of power plant failures, and of related features which are designed to actuate or operate the engineered safety features. Contents are the following: scope of engineered safety features and of related features; classification of engineered safety features (direct systems and indirect systems) and of related features (auxiliaries, emergency power supply, and protective means). (Mori, K.)

  14. Video genre classification using multimodal features (United States)

    Jin, Sung Ho; Bae, Tae Meon; Choo, Jin Ho; Ro, Yong Man


    We propose a video genre classification method using multimodal features. The proposed method is applied for the preprocessing of automatic video summarization or the retrieval and classification of broadcasting video contents. Through a statistical analysis of low-level and middle-level audio-visual features in video, the proposed method can achieve good performance in classifying several broadcasting genres such as cartoon, drama, music video, news, and sports. In this paper, we adopt MPEG-7 audio-visual descriptors as multimodal features of video contents and evaluate the performance of the classification by feeding the features into a decision tree-based classifier which is trained by CART. The experimental results show that the proposed method can recognize several broadcasting video genres with a high accuracy and the classification performance with multimodal features is superior to the one with unimodal features in the genre classification.

  15. Conjunctive Coding of Complex Object Features (United States)

    Erez, Jonathan; Cusack, Rhodri; Kendall, William; Barense, Morgan D.


    Critical to perceiving an object is the ability to bind its constituent features into a cohesive representation, yet the manner by which the visual system integrates object features to yield a unified percept remains unknown. Here, we present a novel application of multivoxel pattern analysis of neuroimaging data that allows a direct investigation of whether neural representations integrate object features into a whole that is different from the sum of its parts. We found that patterns of activity throughout the ventral visual stream (VVS), extending anteriorly into the perirhinal cortex (PRC), discriminated between the same features combined into different objects. Despite this sensitivity to the unique conjunctions of features comprising objects, activity in regions of the VVS, again extending into the PRC, was invariant to the viewpoints from which the conjunctions were presented. These results suggest that the manner in which our visual system processes complex objects depends on the explicit coding of the conjunctions of features comprising them. PMID:25921583

  16. Features of upbringing children in civil law


    Лобжанідзе, Давид


    The paper analyzes the features of upbringing children in civil law, in particular under the Civil Code of Georgia. The author examines the concept of the family as a social phenomenon and its underlying principles. Attention is paid also to the court practice of upbringing children and determining the place of their residence. English abstract D. Lobzhanidze Features of upbringing children in civil law. The paper analyzes the features of upbringing children in civil law, in particular u...

  17. Video Scene Parsing with Predictive Feature Learning


    Jin, Xiaojie; Li, Xin; Xiao, Huaxin; Shen, Xiaohui; Lin, Zhe; Yang, Jimei; Chen, Yunpeng; Dong, Jian; Liu, Luoqi; Jie, Zequn; Feng, Jiashi; Yan, Shuicheng


    In this work, we address the challenging video scene parsing problem by developing effective representation learning methods given limited parsing annotations. In particular, we contribute two novel methods that constitute a unified parsing framework. (1) \\textbf{Predictive feature learning}} from nearly unlimited unlabeled video data. Different from existing methods learning features from single frame parsing, we learn spatiotemporal discriminative features by enforcing a parsing network to ...

  18. Mining Videos for Features that Drive Attention (United States)


    that can be added or removed from the final saliency computation. Examples of these features include intensity contrast, motion energy , color opponent...corresponding to the image. Each pixel in the feature map indicates the energy that the feature in question contributes at that location. In the standard...eye and head animation using a neurobio - logical model of visual attention. In: Bosacchi B, Fogel DB, Bezdek JC (eds) Proceedings of SPIE 48th annual

  19. Learning Transferable Features with Deep Adaptation Networks


    Long, Mingsheng; Cao, Yue; Wang, Jianmin; Jordan, Michael I.


    Recent studies reveal that a deep neural network can learn transferable features which generalize well to novel tasks for domain adaptation. However, as deep features eventually transition from general to specific along the network, the feature transferability drops significantly in higher layers with increasing domain discrepancy. Hence, it is important to formally reduce the dataset bias and enhance the transferability in task-specific layers. In this paper, we propose a new Deep Adaptation...

  20. Flexible feature interface for multimedia sources (United States)

    Coffland, Douglas R [Livermore, CA


    A flexible feature interface for multimedia sources system that includes a single interface for the addition of features and functions to multimedia sources and for accessing those features and functions from remote hosts. The interface utilizes the export statement: export "C" D11Export void FunctionName(int argc, char ** argv,char * result, SecureSession *ctrl) or the binary equivalent of the export statement.

  1. SIFT based algorithm for point feature tracking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian BURLACU


    Full Text Available In this paper a tracking algorithm for SIFT features in image sequences is developed. For each point feature extracted using SIFT algorithm a descriptor is computed using information from its neighborhood. Using an algorithm based on minimizing the distance between two descriptors tracking point features throughout image sequences is engaged. Experimental results, obtained from image sequences that capture scaling of different geometrical type object, reveal the performances of the tracking algorithm.