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Sample records for featuring enso 1997-2000

  1. Interdecadal variations of ENSO around 1999/2000

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Kumar, Arun; Huang, Bohua; Zhu, Jieshun; Ren, Hong-Li

    2017-02-01

    This paper discusses the interdecadal changes of the climate in the tropical Pacific with a focus on the corresponding changes in the characteristics of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Compared with 1979-1999, the whole tropical Pacific climate system, including both the ocean and atmosphere, shifted to a lower variability regime after 1999/2000. Meanwhile, the frequency of ENSO became less regular and was closer to a white noise process. The lead time of the equatorial Pacific's subsurface ocean heat content in preceding ENSO decreased remarkably, in addition to a reduction in the maximum correlation between them. The weakening of the correlation and the shortening of the lead time pose more challenges for ENSO prediction, and is the likely reason behind the decrease in skill with respect to ENSO prediction after 2000. Coincident with the changes in tropical Pacific climate variability, the mean states of the atmospheric and oceanic components also experienced physically coherent changes. The warm anomaly of SST in the western Pacific and cold anomaly in the eastern Pacific resulted in an increased zonal SST gradient, linked to an enhancement in surface wind stress and strengthening of the Walker circulation, as well as an increase in the slope of the thermocline. These changes were consistent with an increase (a decrease) in precipitation and an enhancement (a suppression) of the deep convection in the western (eastern) equatorial Pacific. Possible connections between the mean state and ENSO variability and frequency changes in the tropical Pacific are also discussed.

  2. An ENSO beginning in the year 2000?

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gopinathan, C.K.

    Several models have been developed over the last few decades to predict the advent of new ENSO events several months in advance of the actual event. None of the models have predicted a warm event beginning by the year 2000. Positive SST anomalies...

  3. Are population dynamics of shorebirds affected by El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) while on their non-breeding grounds in Ecuador?

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Hara, Patrick D.; Haase, Ben J. M.; Elner, Robert W.; Smith, Barry D.; Kenyon, Jamie K.

    2007-08-01

    Declines in avian populations are a global concern, particularly for species that migrate between Arctic-temperate and tropical locations. Long-term population studies offer opportunities to detect and document ecological effects attributable to long-term climatic cycles such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In this study, we report possible population-level effects of such climatic cycles on shorebird species that use two non-breeding season sites in Ecuador (Santa Elena peninsula area, near La Libertad). During our 9-year study period (1991/1992-1999/2000), there was a particularly strong ENSO warm phase event during 1997/1998. Population trend data for three species of shorebird, Western Sandpipers ( Calidris mauri), Semipalmated Sandpipers ( C. pusilla), and Least Sandpipers ( C. minutilla), indicated abundances generally declined during the 1990s, but there was an increase in the proportion of first-year birds and their abundance in the years following the 1997/1998 ENSO warm phase. There was some support for variation in apparent survivorship associated with the onset of the ENSO warm phase event in our population models, based on capture-mark-recapture data. Following the 1997/1998 ENSO event onset, individuals for all three species were significantly lighter during the non-breeding season ( F1,3789 = 6.6, p = 0.01). Least-squares mean mass (controlling for size, sex and day of capture) for first-year birds dropped significantly more than for adults following ENSO (first-year mass loss = 0.69 ± 0.12 g; adult mass loss = 0.34 ± 0.11 g, F1,3789 = 5.31, p = 0.021), and least-squares mean mass dropped most during the period when sandpipers prepare for northward migration by gaining mass and moulting into breeding plumage. Least Sandpipers may have declined the most in mean mass following ENSO (0.76 ± 0.19 g), whereas Semipalmated Sandpipers were 0.52 ± 0.12 g lighter, and Western Sandpipers 0.40 ± 0.13 g lighter, but overall variation among

  4. Relationship between annual precipitation variability and ENSO in Southern California for the Common Era (last 2,000 years)

    Science.gov (United States)

    DU, X.; Hendy, I. L.; Hinnov, L.; Brown, E. T.; Schimmelmann, A.; Pak, D. K.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a major influence on Southern California's hydroclimate as demonstrated by both historical observations and model simulations. Santa Barbara Basin (SBB) off Southern California preserves a unique varved (i.e. annually laminated) marine sedimentary archive of modern and Holocene hydroclimate variability, notably including the transition from the regionally dry Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) to the wetter Little Ice Age (LIA). Here we present sub-annually resolved scanning XRF elemental counts for the last 2,000 years in SBB from core SPR0901-03KC. Titanium (associated with silicate minerals) is delivered more efficiently to SBB sediments during times of enhanced river flow and in the Mediterranean climate of Southern California, river flow only occurs after precipitation. The Ti record suggests that the precipitation frequency was reduced during the MCA except for a pluvial episode at CE 1075-1121, but increased during the LIA. Time series analysis of Ti counts indicates ENSO variability robustly increased during the intervals CE 450-520, 650-720, 980-1150, 1380-1550 and 1720-1750, and experienced relatively quiescent intervals between CE 50-150, 250-400, 550-650, 750-950, 1150-1280 and 1580-1620. Generally the LIA in Southern California is characterized by more active ENSO variability with long periodicities (4-7 yr) and multi-decadal variability (54 yr). MCA drought episodes were associated with less active ENSO. Active ENSO variability in Southern California during the last 2,000 years coincided with reconstructed southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) suggesting the ITCZ may play a role in the waxing and waning of ENSO teleconnections between the central Pacific and the west coast of North America.

  5. [Drug expenditures of pensioners in 1997-2000].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swistak, Piotr; Błońska-Fajfrowska, Barbara

    2003-01-01

    The general purpose of the study, carried out in the group of pensioners was to determine the relation between drug prices, household income and amounts of money spent on drugs in the years 1997-2000. The study was based on representative data gathered from annual household budgets review by Polish Statistical Office and data from pharmaceutical market published in 'Vitamina C++' magazine. The used method combined descriptive, comparative, table-descriptive analysis with graphical analysis. During studied period the real value of expenses on drugs in pensioners' households rose by 39.3% and available income decreased by 5.8%. Increased expenses on drugs caused the rise of the proportion of on spending on drugs in total household expenditure. It rose from 3.9% in 1997 to 5.2% in 2000. Throughout this time period the drug prices increased in real terms: the highest growth (approx. 49%) was noticed in patients' co-payment to reimbursed drugs. Despite rise in spending on drugs, due to the increase in drug retail prices and increasing patients co-payment, pensioners in comparison with 1997, could buy only approx. 93% units of reimbursed drugs in 2000. The possibility of buying drugs within OTC group increased by 18%.

  6. REDEFINING ENSO EPISODES BASED ON CHANGED CLIMATE REFERENCES

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Xiao-yan; ZHAI Pan-mao; REN Fu-min

    2005-01-01

    Through studying changes in ENSO indices relative to change of climate reference from 1961~1990 to 1971~2000, the study generated new standards to define ENSO episodes and their intensities. Then according to the new climate references and new index standards, ENSO episodes and their intensities for the period 1951 -2003 have been classified. Finally, an analysis has been performed comparing the new characteristics with the old ones for ENSO period, peak values and intensities.

  7. Composición y abundancia de artrópodos epígeos del Parque Nacional Llanos de Challe: impactos del ENOS de 1997 y efectos del hábitat pedológico Abundance and composition of epigean arthropods from Llanos de Challe National Park: impacts of ENSO-1997 and effects of the pedological habitat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JORGE CEPEDA-PIZARRO

    2005-12-01

    -activity of epigean arthropods -Tenebrionidae in particular- inhabiting at Llanos de Challe National Park were investigated. This park is located in the Chile's transitional coastal desert, Atacama's III Region. Sampling was conducted during three days per month (september, october and december in the period of maximal biological activity of the system, and in 1989 (dry no-ENSO year, 1997 (intense ENSO-year, and 2000 (damp no-ENSO year. Two pedological contrasting sites were used to compare the effects of the factors being examined: a coastal dune habitat and an interior stony habitat. The presence of 15 orders of Arthropoda was recorded. Hexapods made the > 95 % of total specimens captured (9,065 individuals, with Collembola (36.1 % and Coleoptera (29.8 % being the orders with the highest numerical representativeness. The numbers of orders with active members varied slightly among years: 13 orders were recorded in 1989 (44 % rainfall below the average, 15 in 1997 (443 % rainfall above the average, and 11 in 2000 (52 % above average. The effect of the ENSO event was clearly reflected in the numerical contribution both for the years studied and for most of the recorded taxa. Although more subtlety, this effect was also reflected in the assemblage composition of dominant taxa and between pedological habitats, particularly in regard to Tenebrionidae and Formicidae. Specially in the coastal dunes, Tenebrionidae clearly dominated the assemblage of epigean arthropods, being Gyriosomus Guérin-Méneville the most abundant and diverse genus. The dominance of Gyriosomus sets a number of questions regarding the levels of endemism, species diversity and distribution, and their functional role in the ecosystem studied

  8. Trends of syphilis in Posadas city (Misiones State, Argentina, 1997-2000 Incidência de sífilis na cidade de Posadas (estado de Misiones, Argentina, 1997-2000

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramón Alberto de Torres

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: Misiones State is situated in the north-east of Argentina. The main objective was to establish the evolution of syphilis in Posadas city (300.000 inhabitants from 1997 to 2000. Methods: Outpatients were studied at the STD clinics during 1997. Records of all pregnant women with babies due to the months of April to June, from 1997 to 2000 (n = 4700, were studied. Syphilis was confirmed by clinic, epidemiological and laboratory tests (VDRL and FTA-ABS. Results: Higher incidence of primary syphilis in outpatients was established among 15-19 year-old women and in 20-24 year-old men. The percentages of pregnant women with syphilis were 2.1% (1997, 2.6% (1998, 4.6% (1999 and 3.7% (2000. The most vulnerable age group was 15 to 19 year-old. Geographical distribution of cases changed from four clusters in 1997 to a wide occurrence in all city quarters with lower socioeconomic level (30% of population. Conclusion: Posadas city had an increase in cases of syphilis in pregnant women from 1997 to 1999. This evolution indicates that traditional STD-Aids programs have had no effect on safe sex practices, specially among adolescents. Home by home visits aimed at improving prenatal control as a priority, started in 1999. The incidence of the disease became stable in 2000, but still at a high rate. It is necessary to continue and improve the outreach activities. A cooperative program in these big "twin" cities: Encarnación (Paraguay and Posadas (Argentina - will be also of great help for syphilis control in the area.Objetivos: O estado de Misiones está situado no noroeste argentino, nas fronteiras oeste e norte com o Brasil e a leste do Paraguai. Este foi o interesse para estabelecer a evolução da sífilis na cidade de Posadas (300.000 habitantes, capital do estado de Misiones, desde 1997 até 2000. Métodos: A sífilis foi analisada por meio da avaliação epidemiológica, clínica e confirmação laboratorial (VDRL e FTA- ABS. Todas as mulheres

  9. ENSO-driven nutrient variability recorded by central equatorial Pacific corals

    Science.gov (United States)

    LaVigne, M.; Nurhati, I. S.; Cobb, K. M.; McGregor, H. V.; Sinclair, D. J.; Sherrell, R. M.

    2012-12-01

    Recent evidence for shifts in global ocean primary productivity suggests that surface ocean nutrient availability is a key link between global climate and ocean carbon cycling. Time-series records from satellite, in situ buoy sensors, and bottle sampling have documented the impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on equatorial Pacific hydrography and broad changes in biogeochemistry since the late 1990's, however, data are sparse prior to this. Here we use a new paleoceanographic nutrient proxy, coral P/Ca, to explore the impact of ENSO on nutrient availability in the central equatorial Pacific at higher-resolution than available from in situ nutrient data. Corals from Christmas (157°W 2°N) and Fanning (159°W 4°N) Islands recorded a well-documented decrease in equatorial upwelling as a ~40% decrease in P/Ca during the 1997-98 ENSO cycle, validating the application of this proxy to Pacific Porites corals. We compare the biogeochemical shifts observed through the 1997-98 event with two pre-TOGA-TAO ENSO cycles (1982-83 and 1986-87) reconstructed from a longer Christmas Island core. All three corals revealed ~30-40% P/Ca depletions during ENSO warming as a result of decreased regional wind stress, thermocline depth, and equatorial upwelling velocity. However, at the termination of each El Niño event, surface nutrients did not return to pre-ENSO levels for ~4-12 months after, SST as a result of increased biological draw down of surface nutrients. These records demonstrate the utility of high-resolution coral nutrient archives for understanding the impact of tropical Pacific climate on the nutrient and carbon cycling of this key region.

  10. Wavelet analysis of interannual LOD, AAM, and ENSO: 1997-98 El Niño and 1998-99 La Niña signals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Y. H.; Zheng, D. W.; Liao, X. H.

    2001-05-01

    On the basis of the data series of the length of day (LOD), the atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for January 1970-June 1999, the relationship among Interannual LOD, AAM, and the EL Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is analyzed by the wavelet transform method. The results suggest that they have similar time-varying spectral structures. The signals of 1997-98 El Niño and 1998-99 La Niña events can be detected from the LOD or AAM data.

  11. Tracking ENSO with tropical trees: Progress in stable isotope dendroclimatology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, M. N.; Poussart, P. F.; Saleska, S. R.; Schrag, D. P.

    2002-12-01

    The terrestrial tropics remain an important gap in the growing proxy network used to characterize past ENSO behavior. Here we describe a strategy for development of proxy estimates of paleo-ENSO, via proxy rainfall estimates derived from stable isotope (δ18O) measurements made on tropical trees. The approach applies a new model of oxygen isotopic composition of alpha-cellulose (Roden et al., 2000), a rapid method for cellulose extraction from raw wood (Brendel et al., 2000), and continuous flow isotope ratio mass spectrometry (Brand, 1996) to develop proxy chronological, rainfall and growth rate estimates from tropical trees, even those lacking annual rings. The promise and pitfalls of the approach are illustrated in pilot datasets from the US, Costa Rica, Brazil, and Peru, which show isotopic cycles of 4-6 per mil, and interannual anomalies of up to 8 per mil. Together with the mature ENSO proxies (corals, extratropical tree-rings, varved sediments, and ice cores), replicated and well-dated stable isotope chronologies from tropical trees may eventually improve our understanding of ENSO history over the past several hundred years.

  12. ENSO shifts and their link to Southern Africa surface air temperature in summer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manatsa, D.; Mukwada, G.; Makaba, L.

    2018-05-01

    ENSO has been known to influence the trends of summer warming over Southern Africa. In this work, we used observational and reanalysis data to analyze the relationship between ENSO and maximum surface air temperature (SATmax) trends during the three epochs created by the ENSO phase shifts around 1977 and 1997 for the period 1960 to 2014. We observed that while ENSO and cloud cover remains the dominant factor controlling SATmax variability, the first two epochs had the predominant La Niña (El Niño)-like events connected to robust positive (negative) trends in cloud fraction. However, this established relationship reversed in the post-1997 La Niña-like dominated epoch which coincided with a falling cloud cover trend. It is established that this deviation from the previously established link within the previous epochs could be due to the post-1998 era in which SATmin was suppressed while SATmax was enhanced. The resulting increase in diurnal temperature range (DTR) could have discouraged the formation of low-level clouds which have relatively more extensive areal coverage and hence allowing more solar energy to reach the surface to boost daytime SATmax. It is noted that these relationships are more pronounced from December to March.

  13. The Defining Characteristics of ENSO Extremes and the Strong 2015/2016 El Niño

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santoso, Agus; Mcphaden, Michael J.; Cai, Wenju

    2017-12-01

    The year 2015 was special for climate scientists, particularly for the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) research community, as a major El Niño finally materialized after a long pause since the 1997/1998 extreme El Niño. It was scientifically exciting since, due to the short observational record, our knowledge of an extreme El Niño has been based only on the 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 events. The 2015/2016 El Niño was marked by many environmental disasters that are consistent with what is expected for an extreme El Niño. Considering the dramatic impacts of extreme El Niño, and the risk of a potential increase in frequency of ENSO extremes under greenhouse warming, it is timely to evaluate how the recent event fits into our understanding of ENSO extremes. Here we provide a review of ENSO, its nature and dynamics, and through analysis of various observed key variables, we outline the processes that characterize its extremes. The 2015/2016 El Niño brings a useful perspective into the state of understanding of these events and highlights areas for future research. While the 2015/2016 El Niño is characteristically distinct from the 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 events, it still can be considered as the first extreme El Niño of the 21st century. Its extremity can be attributed in part to unusually warm condition in 2014 and to long-term background warming. In effect, this study provides a list of physically meaningful indices that are straightforward to compute for identifying and tracking extreme ENSO events in observations and climate models.

  14. Reforecasting the 1972-73 ENSO Event and the Monsoon Drought Over India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, J.; Huang, B.; Shin, C. S.

    2016-12-01

    This paper presents the results of reforcasting the 1972-73 ENSO event and the Indian summer monsoon drought using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), initialized with the Eu­ropean Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global ocean reanalysis version 4, and observation-based land and atmosphere reanalyses. The results of this paper demonstrate that if the modern day climate models were available during the 1970's, even with the limited observations at that time, it should have been possible to predict the 1972-73 ENSO event and the associated monsoon drought. These results further suggest the necessity of continuing to develop realistic models of the climate system for accurate and reliable seasonal predictions. This paper also presents a comparison of the 1972-73 El Niño reforecast with the 1997-98 case. As the strongest event during 1958-78, the 1972-73 El Niño is distinguished from the 1997-98 one by its early termination. Initialized in the spring season, the forecast system predicted the onset and development of both events reasonably well, although the reforecasts underestimate the ENSO peaking magnitudes. On the other hand, the reforecasts initialized in spring and fall of 1972 persistently predicted lingering wind and SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific during the spring of 1973. Initialized in fall of 1997, the reforecast also grossly overestimates the peaking westerly wind and warm SST anomalies in the 1997-98 El Niño.In 1972-73, both the Eastern Pacific SST anomalies (for example Nino 3 Index) and the summer monsoon drought over India and the adjoining areas were predicted remarkably well. In contrast, the Eastern Pacific SST anomalies for the 1997-98 event were predicted well, but the normal summer monsoon rainfall over India of 1997 was not predicted by the model. This case study of the 1972-73 event is part of a larger, comprehensive reforecast project

  15. ENSO Simulation in CGCMs and the Associated Errors in Atmospheric Response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    AchutaRao, K.; Sperber, K.R.

    2000-01-01

    Tropical Pacific variability, and specifically the simulation of ENSO in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (CGCMs) has previously been assessed in many studies (McCreary and Anderson[1991], Neelin et al.[1992], Mechoso et al.[1995], Latif et al.[2000], and Davey et al.[2000]). These studies have concentrated on SST variations in the tropical Pacific, and discussions of the atmospheric response have been limited to east-west movements of the convergence zone. In this paper we discuss the large-scale atmospheric response to simulated ENSO events. Control simulations from 17 global CGCMs from CMIP (Meehl et al.[2000]) are studied. The web site http:// www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip/modeldoc provides documentation of the configurations of the models

  16. Heartbeat of the Southern Oscillation explains ENSO climatic resonances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruun, John T.; Allen, J. Icarus; Smyth, Timothy J.

    2017-08-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) nonlinear oscillator phenomenon has a far reaching influence on the climate and human activities. The up to 10 year quasi-period cycle of the El Niño and subsequent La Niña is known to be dominated in the tropics by nonlinear physical interaction of wind with the equatorial waveguide in the Pacific. Long-term cyclic phenomena do not feature in the current theory of the ENSO process. We update the theory by assessing low (>10 years) and high (features. The observational data sets of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), North Pacific Index Anomaly, and ENSO Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly, as well as a theoretical model all confirm the existence of long-term and short-term climatic cycles of the ENSO process with resonance frequencies of {2.5, 3.8, 5, 12-14, 61-75, 180} years. This fundamental result shows long-term and short-term signal coupling with mode locking across the dominant ENSO dynamics. These dominant oscillation frequency dynamics, defined as ENSO frequency states, contain a stable attractor with three frequencies in resonance allowing us to coin the term Heartbeat of the Southern Oscillation due to its characteristic shape. We predict future ENSO states based on a stable hysteresis scenario of short-term and long-term ENSO oscillations over the next century.Plain Language SummaryThe Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) nonlinear oscillator phenomenon has a far reaching influence on the climate and our human activities. This work can help predict both long-term and short-term future ENSO events and to assess the risk of future climate hysteresis changes: is the elastic band that regulates the ENSO climate breaking? We update the current theory of the ENSO process with a sophisticated analysis approach (Dominant Frequency State Analysis) to include long-term oscillations (up to 200 years) as well as tropical and extratropical interaction dynamics. The analysis uses instrumental and paleoproxy data

  17. Impact of global warming on ENSO phase change

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    W. Cabos Narvaez

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available We compare the physical mechanisms involved in the generation and decay of ENSO events in a control (present day conditions and Scenario (Is92a, IPCC 1996 simulations performed with the coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM ECHAM4-OPYC3. A clustering technique which objectively discriminates common features in the evolution of the Tropical Pacific Heat Content anomalies leading to the peak of ENSO events allows us to group into a few classes the ENSO events occurring in 240 years of data in the control and scenario runs. In both simulations, the composites of the groups show differences in the generation and development of ENSO. We present the changes in the statistics of the groups and explore the possible mechanisms involved.

  18. CTBT calibration explosions at the Semipalatinsk test site (1997-2000)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leith, W.; Kluchko, L.J.; Knowles, C.P.; Linger, D.A.; Gabriel, L.; Belyashova, N.N.; Tukhvatulin, Sh.T.; Demin, V.N.; Konovalov, V.E.

    2000-01-01

    The article shows the results of experiments, conducted together by American and Kazakhstan researchers at the Semipalatinsk test site during 6 chemical calibration explosions and preparation of the seventh between 1997 and 2000. The main goal of the experiments is calibration of International Monitoring System for Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and development of understanding of explosions as seismic sources. (author)

  19. Simulation of Relationship between ENSO and winter precipitation over Western Himalayas: Application of Regional climate model (RegT-Band)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiwari, P. R.; Mohanty, U. C.; Dey, S.; Acharaya, N.; Sinha, P.

    2012-12-01

    Precipitation over the Western Himalayas region during winter is mainly associated with the passage of midlatitude synoptic systems known as western disturbances (WDs). Recently, many observational and modeling studies reported that the relationship of the Indian southwest monsoon rainfall with El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has weakened since around 1980. But, in contrast, only very few observational studies are reported so far to examine the relationship between ENSO and the winter precipitation over the Western Himalayas region from December to February (DJF). But there is a huge gap of modeling this phenomenon. So keeping in view of the absence of modeling studies, an attempt is made to simulate the relationship between wintertime precipitations associated with large scale global forcing of ENSO over the Western Himalayas. In the present study, RegT-Band, a tropical band version of the regional climate model RegCM4 is integrated for a set of 5 El Niño (1986-87, 1991-92, 1997-98, 2002-03, 2009-10) and 4 La Niña (1984-85, 1988-89, 1999-2000, 2007-08) years with the observed sea-surface temperature and lateral boundary condition. The domain extends from 50° S to 50° N and covers the entire tropics at a grid spacing of about 45 km, i.e. it includes lateral boundary forcing only at the southern and northern boundaries. The performance evaluation of the model in capturing the large scale fields followed by ENSO response with wintertime precipitation over the Western Himalayas region has been carried out by using National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis 2 (NNRP2) data (2.5° x 2.5°) and Aphrodite precipitation data (0.25° x 0.25°). The model is able to delineate the mean circulation associated with ENSO over the region during DJF reasonably well and shows strong southwesterly to northwesterly wind flow, which is there in verification analysis also. The vertical structure of the low as well as upper level

  20. Análise da demanda por defensivos pela fruticultura brasileira 1997-2000 Fruit tree demand for chemicals 1997-2000

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    Evaristo Marzabal Neves

    2002-12-01

    Full Text Available Este estudo estima a demanda relativa por defensivos pela fruticultura brasileira, principalmente para banana, laranja, maçã, melão e uva, por dispêndio total e volume de princípio ativo por hectare, para o período de 1997 a 2000. Efetua, também, uma análise comparativa destas demandas com as obtidas para as principais culturas brasileiras (soja, milho, cana-de-açúcar e café, as quais são predominantes em termos de área cultivada e dominantes, em termos absolutos, nos dispêndios totais e volumes demandados por princípio ativo em defensivos no Brasil. Determina, ainda, em termos absolutos, a participação da fruticultura nos dispêndios totais e no consumo de princípio ativo, especialmente em acaricidas e fungicidas. Conclui sobre a importância da estimativa da demanda relativa para a fruticultura, que supera significativamente as principais culturas comerciais do País, fornecendo indicadores para o comportamento de mercado para as diferentes classes de defensivos pela fruticultura brasileira.This study estimates for the Brazilian fruit trees, mainly banana, orange, apple, melon and grape, the relative demand for chemicals, considering total expenses and quantity demanded for active principle per hectare, from 1997 to 2000. It is also established a comparative analysis among this demand with ones made by the main Brazilian crops (soybean, maize, sugar cane and coffee, that are predominating in terms of grown area and dominating, in absolute terms, of chemicals total expenses and consume of active principle volume in Brazil. Yet, determines, in absolute terms, the importance of fruit trees in chemicals total expenses and active principle consume, especially acaricides and fungicides. It concludes, about the importance of estimated relative demand for fruit trees, that it is higher than the ones by the mainly commercial crops in the country, offering indicators for the demand and market behavior to chemicals different classes by

  1. Present El Niño-ENSO events and past Super-ENSO events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1993-01-01

    Full Text Available LES ÉVÉNEMENTS ENSO ACTUELS ET LES ANCIENS ÉVÉNEMENTS SUPER-ENSO. Les événements ENSO actuels et les anciens événements Super-ENSO représentent la redistribution d’énergie et de masse dans le système terrestre, due à l’échange de momentum angulaire entre la Terre “solide” et l’hydrosphère. Les événements El Niño-ENSO actuels montrent une corrélation claire avec des décélérations interannuelles de la vitesse de rotation de la Terre: la durée du jour (LOD augmente. Bien qu’il soit généralement considéré que ces changements de rotation sont causés par l’échange de momentum angulaire avec l’atmosphère, nous démontrons ici qu’une grande partie, peut-être la majeure partie, des variations du LOD sont causées en réalité par l’échange du momentum angulaire entre la terre “solide” et l’hydrosphère dans un systéme couplé de régénération. Ce mécanisme agit aussi sur des échelles de temps qui vont de la décennie au siècle, provoquant des événements Super-ENSO. Plusieurs de ces événements ont été identifiés au cours de l’Holocène. Un événement de plus grande envergure a eu lieu à l’ère médiévale. Au cours de la période qui va de 13.5 à 9.5 Ka, les changements importants peuvent représenter des événements Mega-ENSO. Au cours des âges glaciaires, avec une vitesse de rotation plus grande, il est probable que les événements ENSO-El Niño furent absents. Dans les enregistrements du passé, de courte durée, les empreintes d’événements Super-ENSO doivent étre beaucoup plus fréquents que ceux de véritables ENSO interannuels, simplement parce que ces derniers sont trop brefs et généralement trop légers. ACTUALES EVENTOS EL NIÑO-ENSO Y ANTIGUOS EVENTOS SUPER-ENSO. Los actuales eventos ENSO y los antiguos eventos Super-ENSO representan la redistribución de energía y masa en el sistema terrestre, debido al intercambio de momento angular entre la Tierra “sólida” y la

  2. PREventie van ZIEkenhuisinfecties door Surveillance. Component infecties op de Intensive Care, 1997-2000

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mannien J; Beaumont MTA; Geubbels ELPE; Wille JC; Boer AS de; deelnemers aan het PREZIES-project; Kwaliteitsinstituut voor de; CIE

    2002-01-01

    In the period from July 1997 to December 2000, 19 hospitals collected data on 3,921 patients in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) for 41,744 ICU patient-days. Of these patients 1,065 had developed 1,673 infections, including 684 with pneumonia, 354 with sepsis, 353 with urinary tract infections and 282

  3. An exploratory modeling study on bio-physical processes associated with ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Park, Young-Gyu

    2014-05-01

    Variability of marine phytoplankton associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and potential biological feedbacks onto ENSO are investigated by performing coupled ocean/biogeochemical model experiments forced by realistic surface winds from 1951 to 2010. The ocean model used in this study is the MOM4, which is coupled to a biogeochemical model, called TOPAZ (Tracers in the Ocean with Allometric Zooplankton). In general, it is shown that MOM4-TOPAZ mimics the observed main features of phytoplankton variability associated with ENSO. By comparing the actively coupled MOM4-TOPAZ experiment with the ocean model experiments using prescribed chlorophyll concentrations, potential impacts of phytoplankton on ENSO are evaluated. We found that chlorophyll generally increases mean sea surface temperature (SST) and decreases subsurface temperature by altering the penetration of solar radiation. However, as the chlorophyll concentration increases, the equatorial Pacific SST decreases due to the enhanced upwelling of the cooler subsurface water with shoaling of mixed layer and thermocline. The presence of chlorophyll generally intensifies ENSO amplitude by changing the ocean basic state. On the other hand, interactively varying chlorophyll associated with the ENSO tends to reduce ENSO amplitude. Therefore, the two biological effects on SST are competing against each other regarding the SST variance in the equatorial Pacific.

  4. Different impacts of mega-ENSO and conventional ENSO on the Indian summer rainfall: developing phase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Lei; Wu, Zhiwei; Zhou, Yefan

    2016-04-01

    Mega-El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a boarder version of conventional ENSO, is found to be a main driving force of Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon rainfall including the Indian summer rainfall (ISR). The simultaneous impacts of "pure" mega-ENSO and "pure" conventional ENSO events on the ISR in its developing summer remains unclear. This study examines the different linkages between mega-ENSO-ISR and conventional ENSO-ISR. During the developing summer of mega-El Niño, negative rainfall anomalies are seen over the northeastern Indian subcontinent, while the anomalous rainfall pattern is almost the opposite for mega-La Niña; as for the conventional ENSO, the approximate "linear opposite" phenomenon vanishes. Furthermore, the global zonal wave trains anomalous are found at mid-latitude zones, with a local triple circulation pattern over the central-east Eurasia during mega-ENSO events, which might be an explanation of corresponding rainfall response over the Indian Peninsula. Among 106-year historical run (1900-2005) of 9 state-of-the-art models from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), HadGEM2-ES performs a promising skill in simulating the anomalous circulation pattern over mid-latitude and central-east Eurasia while CanESM2 cannot. Probably, it is the models' ability of capturing the mega-ENSO-ISR linkage and the characteristic of mega-ENSO that make the difference.

  5. Air-temperature variations and ENSO effects in Indonesia, the Philippines and El Salvador. ENSO patterns and changes from 1866-1993

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harger, J. R. E.

    The major features in development of the "El Nino-Southern Oscillation" (ENSO) involve oscillation of the Pacific ocean-atmosphere in an essentially unpredictable (chaotic) fashion. The system moves between extremes of the so-called "warm events" lasting one or two years and involving movement of warm sea water from the western Pacific along the equator to impact on the west coast of the American continent and "cold-events" associated with easterly trade-wind-induced flows of colder water from the eastern Pacific towards the west. Historical data indicate that ENSO years as experienced by the Island of Java are either much warmer than non-ENSO years or only slightly, if at all, warmer than normal (non-ENSO) years. Hot-dry years within the ENSO warm event cycle are almost always followed by cooler wet years and vice versa. This pattern also extends to include the year immediately following the terminal year of an ENSO warm event set. The initial year of an ENSO warm event set may be either hot with a long dry season or relatively cool (nearer to the temperature of a non-ENSO year) and having a short dry season. In recent years, since 1950, of the 9 ENSO warm events, the initial year tends to have been hot and dry for 6 (1951, 1957, 1963, 1972, 1982, 1991) and neutral or cool and wet for 3 (1968, 1976, 1986). An area of 88,000 ha burned in 1991 (Jakarta Post 30 November 1991) largely in Kalimantan in association with the 1991-1992 ENSO event, an extensive pall of smoke developed over Kalimantan, Singapore and Malaysia during September-October of 1991. Surface vegetation-based fires continued to burn in East Kalimantan as of 29 April 1992 and extended into the 1992 dry season, in response to the ENSO conditions carrying forward from 1991. The increasing annual trend in air-temperature exhibited by the mean monthly values over the period 1866-1993, for the Jakarta and the Semarang data taken together is 1.64°C (0.0132°C per year from 25.771 to 27.409°C). The major

  6. A comparison of sea surface salinity in the equatorial Pacific Ocean during the 1997-1998, 2012-2013, and 2014-2015 ENSO events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corbett, Caroline M.; Subrahmanyam, Bulusu; Giese, Benjamin S.

    2017-11-01

    Sea surface salinity (SSS) variability during the 1997-1998 El Niño event and the failed 2012-2013 and 2014-2015 El Niño events is explored using a combination of observations and ocean reanalyses. Previously, studies have mainly focused on the sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height (SSH) variability. This analysis utilizes salinity data from Argo and the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) reanalysis to examine the SSS variability. Advective processes and evaporation minus precipitation (E-P) variability is understood to influence SSS variability. Using surface wind, surface current, evaporation, and precipitation data, we analyze the causes for the observed SSS variability during each event. Barrier layer thickness and upper level salt content are also examined in connection to subsurface salinity variability. Both advective processes and E-P variability are important during the generation and onset of a successful El Niño, while a lack of one or both of these processes leads to a failed ENSO event.

  7. The large-scale ENSO event, the El Niño and other important regional features

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1993-01-01

    anomalously heavy subtropical Chilean rainfall. The high index (anti-ENSO phase of the SO relates on the west side of the «see-saw» to anomalously heavy rainfall over eastern and northern Australia, anomalously heavy east monsoon rainfall over Indonesia, above normal summer monsoon rainfall over India, and an abnormally large supply of water entering the Nile River system as a result of abnormally heavy summer monsoon rainfall over the highlands of Ethiopia. In contrast, on the east side of the «see-saw» it relates to cool anti-El Niño conditions over the northwestern South American coastal region with its cool upwelling waters, an equatorial Pacific dry zone extending far to the west as a result of the underlying cool upwelling sea water caused by strong easterly winds, and anomalously low subtropical Chilean rainfall. Although each individual large-scale ENSO and anti-ENSO phase pattern will display its own unique characteristics, the above-stated generalities will frequently occur, particularly when the events are in the strong and very strong intensity categories. At times the initial onset of these large-scale developments can be noted earlier on the western side of the «see-saw» than they can on the eastern side. There is no better example of this than the very strong 1982-1983 ENSO development. An ultimate goal of all research on the large-scale ENSO, the El Niño, and other associated regional climatic features is to eventually develop the capability to provide reasonably reliable long-range outlooks as to the time of onset, areal extent, duration, and intensity of these recurring SO-related ocean-atmosphere climatic fluctuations. Here some of the background information, data, and records obtained over the historical past are presented and discussed.

  8. Fossil Coral Records of ENSO during the Last Glacial Period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partin, J. W.; Taylor, F. W.; Shen, C. C.; Edwards, R. L.; Quinn, T. M.; DiNezro, P.

    2017-12-01

    Only a handful of paleoclimate records exist that can resolve interannual changes, and hence El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, during the last glacial period, a time of altered mean climate. The few existing data suggest reduced ENSO variability compared to the Holocene, possibly due to a weaker zonal sea surface temperature gradient across the tropical Pacific and/or a deeper thermocline in the eastern tropical Pacific. Our goal is to add crucial data to this extremely limited subset using sub-annually resolved fossil corals that grew during this time period to reconstruct ENSO. We seek to recover fossil corals from Vanuatu, SW Pacific (16°S, 167°E) with the objective of using coral δ18O to reconstruct changes in the ENSO during and near the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Modern δ18O coral records from Vanuatu show a high degree of skill in capturing ENSO variability, making it a suitable site for reconstructing ENSO variability. We have custom designed and are building a drill system that can rapidly core many 0-25 m holes resulting in much more meters of penetration than achieved by previous land-based reef drilling. As the new drill system is extremely portable and can be quickly relocated by workers without landing craft or vehicles, it is time and cost efficient. Because the proposed drilling sites have uplifted extremely fast, 7 mm/year, the LGM shoreline has been raised from 120-140 m depth to within a depth range of 10 below to 20 m above present sea level. This enables all the drilling to be within the time range of interest ( 15-25 ka). A last advantage is that the LGM corals either are still submersed in seawater or emerged only within the last 2000 years at the uplift rate of 7 mm/yr. This greatly reduces the chances of disruption of the original climate signal because sea water is less diagenetically damaging than meteoric water in the mixed, phreatic, or vadose zones. LGM coral records will enable us to compare the proxy variability

  9. Dynamics of the Indian monsoon and ENSO relationships in the SINTEX global coupled model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Terray, P. [LODYC, Paris (France); Universite Paris 7, Paris (France); Guilyardi, E. [LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette (France); CGAM, Reading (United Kingdom); Fischer, A.S. [LODYC, Paris (France); Delecluse, P. [LODYC, Paris (France); LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette (France)

    2005-02-01

    This paper uses recent gridded climatological data and a coupled general circulation model (GCM) simulation in order to assess the relationships between the interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The focus is on the dynamics of the ISM-ENSO relationships and the ability of the state-of-the-art coupled GCM to reproduce the complex lead-lag relationships between the ISM and the ENSO. The coupled GCM is successful in reproducing the ISM circulation and rainfall climatology in the Indian areas even though the entire ISM circulation is weaker relative to that observed. In both observations and in the simulation, the ISM rainfall anomalies are significantly associated with fluctuations of the Hadley circulation and the 200 hPa zonal wind anomalies over the Indian Ocean. A quasi-biennial time scale is found to structure the ISM dynamical and rainfall indices in both cases. Moreover, ISM indices have a similar interannual variability in the simulation and observations. The coupled model is less successful in simulating the annual cycle in the tropical Pacific. Despite some problems in simulation of the annual cycle and the Southern Oscillation, the coupled model captures some aspects of the interannual variability in the tropical Pacific. ENSO events are phase-locked with the annual cycle as observed, but are of reduced amplitude relative to the observations. Wavelet analysis of the model Nino34 time series shows enhanced power in the 2-4 year band, as compared to the 2-8 year range for observations during the 1950-2000 period. The ISM circulation is weakened during ENSO years in both the simulation and the observations. However, the model fails to reproduce the lead-lag relationship between the ISM and Nino34 sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Furthermore, lag correlations show that the delayed response of the wind stress over the central Pacific to ISM variability is insignificant in the simulation. These

  10. Where was ENSO strongest?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cane, M. A.; Chen, D.; Kaplan, A.

    2008-12-01

    Mark A. Cane, Dake Chen, Alexey Kaplan The description of this session begins: "Historical SST records suggest that for the past three decades, ENSO has been anomalously strong" and goes on to ask why. In this talk we dispute this interpretation of the historical record from within the historical record. In particular, we suggest that the most "anomalously strong" period in the historical ENSO record is the late nineteenth century. This claim requires a discussion of how we measure "ENSO strength". We also speculate on possible reasons for the strength of ENSO in this earlier period. Finally, we consult the models, and in reiteration of the collective conclusion of all speakers at this session, find that the riddles the models provide are inelegant and disobliging, lacking the cryptic wisdom of the classical oracles.

  11. An epidemiological analysis of drunk driving accidents in Kagawa Prefecture - comparison of 1997-2000 and 2003-2006.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujita, Yoshitsugu; Inoue, Ken; Sakuta, Akira; Seki, Nobuhiko; Miyazawa, Teruomi; Eguchi, Kenji

    2008-10-01

    In this study, we examined the number of drunk driving accidents and drunk driving accident toll in 1997-2000 and 2003-2006 for Kagawa Prefecture, which had Japan's highest number of traffic accident fatalities per 100,000 population.

  12. Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Organization Search Go Search the CPC Go Expert Assessments ENSO Diagnostic Discussion Archive About Us Our Assessments > ENSO Diagnostic Discussion El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion PDF : English Version Spanish Version Adobe PDF Reader (Click icon for Adobe PDF Reader) Word: English Version

  13. Evaluation of the impact of ENSO on precipitation extremes in southern Brazil considering the ODP phases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Firpo, M. A.; Sansigolo, C. A.

    2011-12-01

    One of the most important modes of interannual variability from ocean-atmosphere system is the El Niño/Southern Oscillation - ENSO. The Brazil southern region belongs to the Southeast of South America, where there is a strong signal of ENSO, especially over the precipitation. This phenomenon can be modulated by low frequency climate patterns, especially the dominant pattern of North Pacific, called Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Attempting to better understand these interactions, the objective of this study was to investigate the seasonal impact of ENSO events over the Southern Brazil precipitation, taking into account the PDO phases. The dataset used in this study, consist of monthly precipitation records of six well distributed stations from southern Brazil (Rio Grande do Sul state). From these series it was calculated a unique index, which was categorized in three classes, in order to obtain the extremes: very below normal precipitation (below the percentile 10), normal precipitation (between percentile 10 and 90) and very above normal precipitation (above the percentile 90). To characterize the ENSO events, it was applied the Trenberth (1997) criteria in the index proposed by Bunge and Clarke (2009), which corrects the inconsistencies between the conventional SST index for Niño 3.4 region and the Southern Oscillation Index before 1950, going beyond the incoherence for decadal scale. For PDO, it was used the index proposed by Mantua et al. (1997). Contingency tables were constructed to analyze the seasonal, simultaneous, and 3, 6, 9 and 12 months lagged relationships between ENSO events (El Niño, neutral, La Niña), and extreme precipitation anomalies (categories), also considering the PDO phases during the 1913-1999 period. Moreover, a wavelet analysis was used to check the coherency and phase among these 3 times series during the 1913-2006 period. The Contingency Tables analysis showed that, generally, there were more positive (negative) precipitation

  14. ENSO, IOD and Indian Summer Monsoon in NCEP climate forecast system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pokhrel, Samir; Chaudhari, H.S.; Saha, Subodh K.; Dhakate, Ashish; Yadav, R.K.; Salunke, Kiran; Mahapatra, S.; Rao, Suryachandra A. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pashan, Pune (India)

    2012-11-15

    El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall features are explored statistically and dynamically using National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFSv1) freerun in relation to observations. The 100 years of freerun provides a sufficiently long homogeneous data set to find out the mean state, periodicity, coherence among these climatic events and also the influence of ENSO and IOD on the Indian monsoon. Differences in the occurrence of seasonal precipitation between the observations and CFS freerun are examined as a coupled ocean-atmosphere system. CFS simulated ENSO and IOD patterns and their associated tropical Walker and regional Hadley circulation in pure ENSO (PEN), pure IOD (PIO) and coexisting ENSO-IOD (PEI) events have some similarity to the observations. PEN composites are much closer to the observation as compared to PIO and PEI composites, which suggest a better ENSO prediction and its associated teleconnections as compared to IOD and combined phenomenon. Similar to the observation, the model simulation also show that the decrease in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall during ENSO phases is associated with a descending motion of anomalous Walker circulation and the increase in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall during IOD phase is associated with the ascending branch of anomalous regional Hadley circulation. During co-existing ENSO and IOD years, however, the fate of Indian summer monsoon is dictated by the combined influence of both of them. The shift in the anomalous descending and ascending branches of the Walker and Hadley circulation may be somewhat attributed to the cold (warm) bias over eastern (western) equatorial Indian Ocean basin, respectively in the model. This study will be useful for identifying some of the limitations of the CFS model and consequently it will be helpful in improving the model to unravel the realistic coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions

  15. Health promotion practices of restaurants and cafés in Australia: changes from 1997 to 2000 using an annual telemarketing intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Licata, Milly; Gillham, Karen; Campbell, Elizabeth

    2002-09-01

    This study looked at whether rates of health promotion practices among restaurants and cafés in the Hunter Region of New South Wales (NSW), Australia, increased between 1997 and 2000. During the project period all restaurants and cafés in the region were offered an annual direct marketing telephone interview (1997, 1998 and 1999), during which resources were offered to assist in the adoption of health promotion practices. Owners or managers of restaurants and cafés completed phone interviews that assessed 18 health promotion practices relating to: environmental tobacco smoke (two practices); responsible service of alcohol (five practices); healthy food choices (one practice); food safety (four practices); occupational health and safety (three practices); and the prevention of infectious diseases (three practices). Changes in practices were examined by comparing data from cross-sectional samples in 1997 (before any offers of resources) and 2000 (after up to three annual telemarketing calls), and among a cohort interviewed in both 1997 and 2000. Ninety-one per cent of restaurants and cafés (321) participated in the 1997 survey and 239 (81%) participated in the 2000 survey. A cohort of 122 restaurants and cafés participated in both surveys. Significant increases were present for 14 of the 18 health promotion initiatives in the cross-sectional sample and for 10 of the 18 health promotion initiatives in the cohort. For both cross-sectional and cohort samples, a change in at least one practice in each area was evident, with the exception of nutrition. The proportion of restaurants and cafés in the project region that undertake health promotion initiatives is increasing. A telephone-based intervention may contribute to such an increase. The suggestion that the prevalence of health promotion initiatives in restaurants and cafés can be increased highlights the potential for health promotion to be more actively involved in this setting.

  16. Remote ENSO forcing versus local air-sea interaction in QTCM: a sensitivity study to intraseasonal variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Gushchina

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The skill of a newly designed global atmospheric model of intermediate complexity - QTCM (for quasi-equilibrium tropical circulation model in simulating the teleconnections is investigated. The role of the ENSO remote forcing over the Pacific surrounding regions is emphasized from sensitivity experiments to critical parameters of the model. The role of the tropical intraseasonal variability (ITV on the simulated ENSO teleconnection pattern is estimated using the methodology proposed by Lin et al. (2000 allowing to damp the energy of ITV in the model. The reduction of intraseasonal variability allows emphasizing the forced response of the atmosphere and eases the detection of local coupled atmosphere-ocean patterns. It was shown that the simulated ITV has an impact on the ENSO teleconnection pattern both in the mid-latitudes and in regions of ascending and descending branches of Walker circulation cells in the tropics.

  17. Decadal Monsoon-ENSO Relationships Reexamined

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yun, Kyung-Sook; Timmermann, Axel

    2018-02-01

    The strength of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) relationship shows considerable decadal fluctuations, which have been previously linked to low-frequency climatic processes such as shifts in ENSO's center of action or the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. However, random variability can also cause similar variations in the relationship between climate phenomena. Here we propose a statistical test to determine whether the observed time-evolving correlations between ENSO and ISMR are different from those expected from a simple stochastic null hypothesis model. The analysis focuses on the time evolution of moving correlations, their expected variance, and probabilities for rapid transitions. The results indicate that the time evolution of the observed running correlation between these climate modes is indistinguishable from a system in which the ISMR signal can be expressed as a stochastically perturbed ENSO signal. This challenges previous deterministic interpretations. Our results are further corroborated by the analysis of climate model simulations.

  18. The natural oscillation of two types of ENSO events based on analyses of CMIP5 model control runs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Kang; Su, Jingzhi; Zhu, Congwen

    2014-07-01

    The eastern- and central-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation (EP- and CP-ENSO) have been found to be dominant in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and are characterized by interannual and decadal oscillation, respectively. In the present study, we defined the EP- and CP-ENSO modes by singular value decomposition (SVD) between SST and sea level pressure (SLP) anomalous fields. We evaluated the natural features of these two types of ENSO modes as simulated by the pre-industrial control runs of 20 models involved in phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The results suggested that all the models show good skill in simulating the SST and SLP anomaly dipolar structures for the EP-ENSO mode, but only 12 exhibit good performance in simulating the tripolar CP-ENSO modes. Wavelet analysis suggested that the ensemble principal components in these 12 models exhibit an interannual and multi-decadal oscillation related to the EP- and CP-ENSO, respectively. Since there are no changes in external forcing in the pre-industrial control runs, such a result implies that the decadal oscillation of CP-ENSO is possibly a result of natural climate variability rather than external forcing.

  19. The preconditioning role of Tropical Atlantic Variability in the development of the ENSO teleconnection: implications for the prediction of Nordeste rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giannini, A.; Saravanan, R.; Chang, P.

    A comparison of rainfall variability in the semi-arid Brazilian Nordeste in observations and in two sets of model simulations leads to the conclusion that the evolving interaction between Tropical Atlantic Variability (TAV) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon can explain two puzzling features of ENSO's impact on the Nordeste: (1) the event-to-event unpredictability of ENSO's impact; (2) the greater impact of cold rather than warm ENSO events during the past 50 years. The explanation is in the `preconditioning' role of Tropical Atlantic Variability. When, in seasons prior to the mature phase of ENSO, the tropical Atlantic happens to be evolving consistently with the development expected of the ENSO teleconnection, ENSO and TAV add up to force large anomalies in Nordeste rainfall. When it happens to be evolving in opposition to the canonical development of ENSO, then the net outcome is less obvious, but also less anomalous. The more frequent occurrence of tropical Atlantic conditions consistent with those that develop during a cold ENSO event, i.e. of a negative meridional sea surface temperature gradient, explains the weaker warm ENSO and stronger cold ENSO anomalies in Nordeste rainfall of the latter part of the twentieth century. Close monitoring of the evolution of the tropical Atlantic in seasons prior to the mature phase of ENSO should lead to an enhanced forecast potential.

  20. The determinants of private medical insurance prevalence in England, 1997-2000.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Derek; Mossialos, Elias

    2005-02-01

    The aim of this paper is to identify the factors that determine the prevalence of private medical insurance (PMI) in England. Secondary data sources are the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) 1997-2000, Laing's Healthcare Market Review 1999-2000, the United Kingdom (U.K.) Department of Health's National Health Service Waiting Times Team, and the Work Force Statistics Branch of the Department of Health. Logistic regression models for panel data were used to compare non-PMI subscribers with individual subscribers and those with employer-provided PMI. The BHPS data are collected by the Institute for Social and Economic Research at the University of Essex. Other data used were collected by Laing and Buisson and the U.K. Department of Health. Individual PMI is more prevalent among the well-educated and healthy. Income, age, sex, and political preference are key determinants of PMI prevalence for both individual and employer paid PMI. Individuals are also likely to reflect on information with regard to waiting times in deciding whether or not to purchase PMI cover. The withdrawal of the tax subsidy in 1997 to PMI subscribers over 60 years of age did not impact on their rate of withdrawal from PMI coverage relative to the rate among all PMI subscribers, but may have discouraged potential new subscribers. Current trends in the PMI market suggest that, over time, individually purchased PMI is likely to be partially displaced by PMI purchased as part of a company-based plan. However, having PMI is linked to economic factors in both groups, suggesting a similar segment of the population valuing the responsiveness that PMI provides. Geographic factors relating to waiting times and supply-side factors are associated with both individual and company-based PMI. The withdrawal of the tax subsidy to individual subscribers older than age of 60 resulted in a significant decline in the demand for PMI. In particular, the number of new subscribers in this group declined substantially.

  1. Evaluation of Rubella Immunity in Women before Marriage and Pregnancy in Isfahan During 1997-2000

    OpenAIRE

    T Allameh; M Kianpoor

    2004-01-01

    Background: Congenital Rubella syndrome is a public health problem in many developing countries which has not yet been sufficiently put into account. There is an urgent need for collecting appropriate data to estimate the cost-effectiveness of a potential global Rubella control program. This study was conducted to determine susceptibility to Rubella in women who are going to marry or consult for pregnancy. Methods: This study began in 1997 and ended in 2000. The study was analytic descriptive...

  2. Power consumption in detail of private households in the Federal Republic of Germany 1997 - 2000. Study; Detaillierung des Stromverbrauchs privater Haushalte in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland 1997 - 2010. Studie

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boede, U.; Bradke, H.; Cremer, C.

    2000-12-01

    The study includes all electric appliances except for those used to heat rooms. 53 of these power-consuming appliances were also examined in detail as to their idle-power consumption (consumption during stand-by and apparent non-activity). The investigations covered specific performance, the typical sort of use and the development of the stocks. 1997 was used as the basic year. The development is estimated for the years 2000, 2005 and 2010. To identify the stand-by losses, the operational states were defined accurately. This makes it possible to determine which loss is caused by which operational mode. [German] Die Studie beruecksichtigt alle Elektrogeraete ausser solche fuer Raumwaerme. 53 dieser stromverbrauchenden Geraete wurden darueber hinaus bezueglich ihres Leerlaufverbrauchs (Verbrauch im Bereitschaftsbetrieb und im Schein-Aus-Zustand) detailliert betrachtet. Untersucht wurden die spezifische Leistungsaufnahme, die typische Anwendung und die Bestandsentwicklung. Als Basisjahr wurde 1997 herangezogen. Die Entwicklung wird abgeschaetzt fuer die Jahre 2000, 2005 und 2010. Zur Identifizierung der Leerlaufverluste wurde eine genaue Definition der Betriebszustaende vorgenommen. Dadurch ist es moeglich zuzuordnen, welcher Verlust auf welchen Betriebsmodus entfaellt. (orig.)

  3. Salinity anomaly as a trigger for ENSO events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Jieshun; Huang, Bohua; Zhang, Rong-Hua; Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Kumar, Arun; Balmaseda, Magdalena A; Marx, Lawrence; Kinter, James L

    2014-10-29

    According to the classical theories of ENSO, subsurface anomalies in ocean thermal structure are precursors for ENSO events and their initial specification is essential for skillful ENSO forecast. Although ocean salinity in the tropical Pacific (particularly in the western Pacific warm pool) can vary in response to El Niño events, its effect on ENSO evolution and forecasts of ENSO has been less explored. Here we present evidence that, in addition to the passive response, salinity variability may also play an active role in ENSO evolution, and thus important in forecasting El Niño events. By comparing two forecast experiments in which the interannually variability of salinity in the ocean initial states is either included or excluded, the salinity variability is shown to be essential to correctly forecast the 2007/08 La Niña starting from April 2007. With realistic salinity initial states, the tendency to decay of the subsurface cold condition during the spring and early summer 2007 was interrupted by positive salinity anomalies in the upper central Pacific, which working together with the Bjerknes positive feedback, contributed to the development of the La Niña event. Our study suggests that ENSO forecasts will benefit from more accurate salinity observations with large-scale spatial coverage.

  4. Climate Prediction Center - The ENSO Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News Web resources and services. HOME > El Niño/La Niña > The ENSO Cycle ENSO Cycle Banner Climate for Weather and Climate Prediction Climate Prediction Center 5830 University Research Court College

  5. ENSO Diversity Changes Due To Global Warming In CESM-LE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carreric, A.; Dewitte, B.; Guemas, V.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is predicted to be modified due to global warming based on the CMIP3 and CMIP5 data bases. In particular the frequency of occurrence of extreme Eastern Pacific El Niño events is to double in the future in response to the increase in green-house gazes. Such forecast relies however on state-of-the-art models that still present mean state biases and do not simulate realistically key features of El Niño events such as its diversity which is related to the existence of at least two types of El Niño events, the Eastern Pacific (EP) El Nino and the Central Pacific (CP) El Niño events. Here we take advantage of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble (LE) that provides 35 realizations of the climate of the 1920-2100 period with a combination of both natural and anthropogenic climate forcing factors, to explore on the one hand methods to detect changes in ENSO statistics and on the other hand to investigate changes in thermodynamical processes associated to the increase oceanic stratification owed to global warming. The CESM simulates realistically many aspects of the ENSO diversity, in particular the non-linear evolution of the phase space of the first two EOF modes of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific. Based on indices accounting for the two ENSO regimes used in the literature, we show that, although there is no statistically significant (i.e. confidence level > 95%) changes in the occurrence of El Niño types from the present to the future climate, the estimate of the changes is sensitive to the definition of ENSO indices that is used. CESM simulates in particular an increase occurrence of extreme El Niño events that can vary by 28% from one method to the other. It is shown that the seasonal evolution of EP El Niño events is modified from the present to the future climate, with in particular a larger occurrence of events taking place in Austral summer in the warmer climate

  6. Correção do fluxo escolar: um balanço do programa acelera Brasil (1997-2000 Redressing student flows: results of programa acelera Brasil (1997-2000

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    João Batista Araujo e Oliveira

    2002-07-01

    Full Text Available A correção do fluxo escolar consiste no desafio inicial a ser superado para que o Brasil possa oferecer educação de qualidade para todos. Dos 35,7 milhões de alunos matriculados no ensino fundamental, no início do ano 2000, quase 20 milhões estavam com dois ou mais anos de atraso escolar, e, dentre esses, 9 milhões já tinham mais de 15 anos de idade. Este artigo apresenta, descreve e analisa resultados do Programa Acelera Brasil, desenvolvido em 24 municípios durante os anos 1997 a 2000. O programa envolveu quase 60 mil alunos em mais de 2.400 classes e teve como objetivo regularizar o fluxo escolar através da implementação de programas de alfabetização, programas de aceleração de aprendizagem e outras estratégias que visam assegurar os avanços obtidos. Embora as metas iniciais do programa de aprovar os alunos para a 5ª série e regularizar o fluxo escolar num prazo de quatro anos não tenham sido plenamente atingidas, os resultados obtidos sugerem uma taxa de sucesso que varia entre 70% e 90%, nos diferentes municípios. Do ponto de vista econômico, foram economizados mais de 50 milhões de reais, o que significa uma taxa de retorno superior a 300% do investimento. Os resultados obtidos permitiram a implementação maciça do programa em outros estados e municípios do país, com resultados semelhantes. O artigo conclui com uma discussão a respeito das contribuições desse programa para a formulação de políticas públicas consistentes para a correção do fluxo escolar.The paper analyses results of Programa Acelera Brasil implemented in 24 municipalities between 1997 and 2000. Over 60,000 students participated in more than 2400 classrooms. The main goal was to correct student flows through the implementation of literacy and acceleration programs for over-age students, as well as other strategies to sustain the results achieved. Even though the original targets to promote students to the 5th grade and correct the flow

  7. The interdecadal changes of south pacific sea surface temperature in the mid-1990s and their connections with ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Gang; Li, Chongyin; Tan, Yanke; Bai, Tao

    2014-01-01

    The characteristic changes of South Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) for the period January 1979 to December 2011, during which the 1990s Pacific pan-decadal variability (PDV) interdecadal regime shifts occurred, were examined. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis was applied to the monthly mean SSTA for two sub-periods: January 1979 to December 1994 (P1) and January 1996 to December 2011 (P2). Both the spatial and temporal features of the leading EOF mode for P1 and P2 showed a remarkable difference. The spatial structure of the leading EOF changed from a tripolar pattern for P1 (EOF-P1) to a dipole-like pattern for P2 (EOF-P2). Besides, EOF-P1 (EOF-P2) had significant spectral peaks at 4.6 yr (2.7 yr). EOF-P2 not only had a closer association with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but also showed a faster response to ENSO than EOF-P1 based on their lead-lag relationships with ENSO. During the development of ENSO, the South Pacific SSTA associated with ENSO for both P1 and P2 showed a significant eastward propagation. However, after the peak of ENSO, EOF-P1 showed a stronger persistence than EOF-P2, which still showed eastward propagation. The variability of the SSTA associated with the whole process of ENSO evolution during P1 and the SSTA associated with the development of ENSO during P2 support the existence of ocean-to-atmosphere forcing, but the SSTA associated with the decay of ENSO shows the phenomenon of atmosphere-to-ocean forcing.

  8. The ENSO Impact on Predicting World Cocoa Prices

    OpenAIRE

    Ubilava, David; Helmers, Claes Gustav

    2011-01-01

    Cocoa beans are produced in equatorial and sub-equatorial regions of West Africa, Southeast Asia and South America. These are also the regions most affected by El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) -- a climatic anomaly affecting temperature and precipitation in many parts of the world. Thus, ENSO, has a potential of affecting cocoa production and, subsequently, prices on the world market. This study investigates the benefits of using a measure of ENSO variable in world cocoa price forecasting ...

  9. Change of ENSO characteristics in response to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, X.; Xia, Y.; Yan, Y.; Feng, W.; Huang, F.; Yang, X. Q.

    2017-12-01

    By using datasets of HadISST monthly SST from 1895 to 2014 and 600-year simulations of two CESM model experiments with/without doubling of CO2 concentration, ENSO characteristics are compared pre- and post- global warming. The main results are as follows. Due to global warming, the maximum climatological SST warming occurs in the tropical western Pacific (La Niña-like background warming) and the tropical eastern Pacific (El Niño-like background warming) for observations and model, respectively, resulting in opposite zonal SST gradient anomalies in the tropical Pacific. The La Niña-like background warming induces intense surface divergence in the tropical central Pacific, which enhances the easterly trade winds in the tropical central-western Pacific and shifts the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling westward, correspondingly. On the contrary, the El Niño-like background warming causes westerly winds in the whole tropical Pacific and moves the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling eastward. Under the La Niña-like background warming, ENSO tends to develop and mature in the tropical central Pacific, because the background easterly wind anomaly weakens the ENSO-induced westerly wind anomaly in the tropical western Pacific, leading to the so-called "Central Pacific ENSO (CP ENSO)". However, the so-called "Eastern Pacific ENSO (EP ENSO)" is likely formed due to increased westerly wind anomaly by the El Niño-like background warming. ENSO lifetime is significantly extended under both the El Niño-like and the La Niña-like background warmings, and especially, it can be prolonged by up to 3 months in the situation of El Niño-like background warming. The prolonged El Nino lifetime mainly applies to extreme El Niño events, which is caused by earlier outbreak of the westerly wind bursts, shallower climatological thermocline depth and weaker "discharge" rate of the ENSO warm signal in response to global warming. Results from both observations and the model also show that

  10. ENSO Atmospheric Teleconnections and Their Response to Greenhouse Gas Forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeh, Sang-Wook; Cai, Wenju; Min, Seung-Ki; McPhaden, Michael J.; Dommenget, Dietmar; Dewitte, Boris; Collins, Matthew; Ashok, Karumuri; An, Soon-Il; Yim, Bo-Young; Kug, Jong-Seong

    2018-03-01

    El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most prominent year-to-year climate fluctuation on Earth, alternating between anomalously warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) sea surface temperature (SST) conditions in the tropical Pacific. ENSO exerts its impacts on remote regions of the globe through atmospheric teleconnections, affecting extreme weather events worldwide. However, these teleconnections are inherently nonlinear and sensitive to ENSO SST anomaly patterns and amplitudes. In addition, teleconnections are modulated by variability in the oceanic and atmopsheric mean state outside the tropics and by land and sea ice extent. The character of ENSO as well as the ocean mean state have changed since the 1990s, which might be due to either natural variability or anthropogenic forcing, or their combined influences. This has resulted in changes in ENSO atmospheric teleconnections in terms of precipitation and temperature in various parts of the globe. In addition, changes in ENSO teleconnection patterns have affected their predictability and the statistics of extreme events. However, the short observational record does not allow us to clearly distinguish which changes are robust and which are not. Climate models suggest that ENSO teleconnections will change because the mean atmospheric circulation will change due to anthropogenic forcing in the 21st century, which is independent of whether ENSO properties change or not. However, future ENSO teleconnection changes do not currently show strong intermodel agreement from region to region, highlighting the importance of identifying factors that affect uncertainty in future model projections.

  11. Is ENSO related to 2015 Easter Star Capsized on the Yangtze River of China?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, P.

    2015-12-01

    Natural disasters have profound effects on community security and economic damage of China's Hubei province. In June 1st, 2015, a cruise ship, Easter Star, capsized on Yangtze River in Hubei province with 442 died. What reason gives rise to such strong convection causing ship sunk? Based on the wind disasters of Hubei province happened in 1963-2015, this study analyzes their features bytime-series regression, and correlates them to global El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The compared results demonstrated that the wind disasters shown an increasing tendency. There are two peaks corresponding to the strongest ENSO peaks during the past 50 years; each peak lasts two-three years. The facts demonstrated an essential linear relation between the ENSO phenomena and wind disasters in Hubei province. 2015 Easter Star capsized happened at current El Niño event in 2014-2015. We also observed that the historical wind disasters appeared in seasonal variation. Over 90% events concentrated in spring and summer; very few events happened in autumn and winter. Moreover, the disasters depend on the geographic conditions. Most disasters concentrated in four zones, named as Xingshan-Baokang, Xuanen, Wufeng-Yichang, Jingzhou-Gongan, in which Xingshan and Changyang are the two most density of zones. Yangtze River provides an air flowing conduct for strong convective winds. It can be concluded that the strong convection causing 2015 Easter Star capsized is related to current global ENSO phenomenon.Keywords: ENSO, wind disaster, time-series regression analysis, Easter Star, Yangtze River, Hubei Province,

  12. WMO statement on the status of the global climate in 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-12-31

    The brochure gives a summary of global climate during 1996, from information provided by the Climate Prediction Center in the United States with inputs from other climate centres around the world. The 1997 global mean surface temperature anomaly, 0.43{degree}C above the 1961-90 base-period mean temperature, was the highest since records began in 1860. One major contributing factor was the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episode with temperatures in the tropical belt being the second highest in the historical record. ENSO resulted in increased rainfall in the central and eastern aquatorical pacific. In Indonesia, low rainfall from March to December and drought conditions by July and August contributed to uncontrolled wildfires in rainforests of Sumatra and Borneo resulting in widespread smoke pollution. The booklet is provided through the Climate Change Detection Project of the World Climate Data and Monitoring Programme (WCDMP). 10 figs.

  13. Analisis Kebangkrutan Perusahaan dengan Menggunakan Metode Z Score (Studi Kasus pada Industri Consumer Goods di Bursa Efek Jakarta Periode 19972000

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nuning Kriesnawati

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to analyze bankruptcy using the Z score. Research done in the consumer goods industry listed in Jakarta Stock Exchange 1997-2000 period. The results found that in 2000 the value of Z score companies has decreased, this is possible because the value of the variable X3 and X4 has decreased, but in 2001 the value of Z score Integration again experienced an increase, although not as high as in 1999, this means that the company can improve its performance. PT Mandom value of Z score indicates that the company is in a good condition or not bankruptcy. Z score value of the company from 1997 to 2001 continues to increase, it suggests that good corporate performance which proved that despite the crisis the company was still able to survive even continue to increase. Analysis of the bankruptcy of PT Unilever shows that the company is in a good condition. As in PT Mandom, the company is also not affected by the crisis. Z score value of the company from 1997 to 2001 have increased constantly, this indicates that the performance is good. Analysis of the bankruptcy of the PT Procter and Gamble shows that the company is in conditions that are less stable, this is indicated by the value of Z score in 1997 shows that the company is in the condition of the gray area, in 1998 based on assessment standards of bankruptcy, the company in 1998 experienced bankruptcy, in 1999 the company experienced a slight improvement from the beginning in a state of bankruptcy changes on the condition of the gray area, in 2000 the company was in good condition or not bankrupt, this is possible because the company sells most of its fixed assets in order to operate properly. However, in 2001 the company back on the condition of the gray area, it is because the value X2 to X5 has decreased.

  14. Asymptotic solving method for sea-air coupled oscillator ENSO model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou Xian-Chun; Yao Jing-Sun; Mo Jia-Qi

    2012-01-01

    The ENSO is an interannual phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere interaction. In this article, we create an asymptotic solving method for the nonlinear system of the ENSO model. The asymptotic solution is obtained. And then we can furnish weather forecasts theoretically and other behaviors and rules for the atmosphere-ocean oscillator of the ENSO. (general)

  15. Tratamento cirúrgico da atresia de vias biliares: a experiência do hospital municipal jesus, 1997-2000

    OpenAIRE

    Jesus, Lisieux Eyer de; Monteiro, Paulo Cesar Costa

    2001-01-01

    OBJETIVO: Analisar a indicação, resultados e limitações da portoenterostomia para o tratamento da atresia de vias biliares em hospital infantil terciário no Rio de Janeiro-RJ/Brasil. MÉTODO: Foram estudados prospectivamente oito pacientes submetidos à portoenterostomia do tipo Kasai 1, num período de três anos (1997-2000). Todos foram submetidos à antibioticoterapia profilática, uso de colerético, reavaliação médica mensal nos primeiros seis meses de seguimento e reavaliação laboratorial, ult...

  16. Seasonality in ENSO-related precipitation, river discharges, soil moisture, and vegetation index in Colombia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poveda, GermáN.; Jaramillo, Alvaro; Gil, Marta MaríA.; Quiceno, Natalia; Mantilla, Ricardo I.

    2001-08-01

    An analysis of hydrologic variability in Colombia shows different seasonal effects associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Spectral and cross-correlation analyses are developed between climatic indices of the tropical Pacific Ocean and the annual cycle of Colombia's hydrology: precipitation, river flows, soil moisture, and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Our findings indicate stronger anomalies during December-February and weaker during March-May. The effects of ENSO are stronger for streamflow than for precipitation, owing to concomitant effects on soil moisture and evapotranspiration. We studied time variability of 10-day average volumetric soil moisture, collected at the tropical Andes of central Colombia at depths of 20 and 40 cm, in coffee growing areas characterized by shading vegetation ("shaded coffee"), forest, and sunlit coffee. The annual and interannual variability of soil moisture are highly intertwined for the period 1997-1999, during strong El Niño and La Niña events. Soil moisture exhibited greater negative anomalies during 1997-1998 El Niño, being strongest during the two dry seasons that normally occur in central Colombia. Soil moisture deficits were more drastic at zones covered by sunlit coffee than at those covered by forest and shaded coffee. Soil moisture responds to wetter than normal precipitation conditions during La Niña 1998-1999, reaching maximum levels throughout that period. The probability density function of soil moisture records is highly skewed and exhibits different kinds of multimodality depending upon land cover type. NDVI exhibits strong negative anomalies throughout the year during El Niños, in particular during September-November (year 0) and June-August (year 0). The strong negative relation between NDVI and El Niño has enormous implications for carbon, water, and energy budgets over the region, including the tropical Andes and Amazon River basin.

  17. Contribution of tropical instability waves to ENSO irregularity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, Ryan M.; McGregor, Shayne; Santoso, Agus; England, Matthew H.

    2018-05-01

    Tropical instability waves (TIWs) are a major source of internally-generated oceanic variability in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. These non-linear phenomena play an important role in the sea surface temperature (SST) budget in a region critical for low-frequency modes of variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, the direct contribution of TIW-driven stochastic variability to ENSO has received little attention. Here, we investigate the influence of TIWs on ENSO using a 1/4° ocean model coupled to a simple atmosphere. The use of a simple atmosphere removes complex intrinsic atmospheric variability while allowing the dominant mode of air-sea coupling to be represented as a statistical relationship between SST and wind stress anomalies. Using this hybrid coupled model, we perform a suite of coupled ensemble forecast experiments initiated with wind bursts in the western Pacific, where individual ensemble members differ only due to internal oceanic variability. We find that TIWs can induce a spread in the forecast amplitude of the Niño 3 SST anomaly 6-months after a given sequence of WWBs of approximately ± 45% the size of the ensemble mean anomaly. Further, when various estimates of stochastic atmospheric forcing are added, oceanic internal variability is found to contribute between about 20% and 70% of the ensemble forecast spread, with the remainder attributable to the atmospheric variability. While the oceanic contribution to ENSO stochastic forcing requires further quantification beyond the idealized approach used here, our results nevertheless suggest that TIWs may impact ENSO irregularity and predictability. This has implications for ENSO representation in low-resolution coupled models.

  18. Anthropogenic enhancement of moderate-to-strong El Niño events likely contributed to drought and poor harvests in southern Africa during 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Chris; Davenport, Frank; Harrison, Laura; Magadzire, Tamuka; Galu, Gideon; Artan, Guleid A.; Shukla, Shraddhanand; Korecha, Diriba; Indeje, Matayo; Pomposi, Catherine; Macharia, Denis; Husak, Gregory; Dieudonne Nsadisa, Faka

    2018-01-01

    In December–February (DJF) of 2015/16, a strong El Niño (Niño‑3.4 SST >29°C) contributed to a severe drought over southern Africa (SA; Funk et al. 2016). A 9-million ton cereal deficit resulted in 26 mil‑ lion people in need of humanitarian assistance (SADC 2016). While SA rainfall has a well-documented nega‑ tive teleconnection with Niño‑3.4 SSTs (Hoell et al. 2015, 2017; Jury et al. 1994; Lindesay 1988; Misra 2003; Nicholson and Entekhabi 1987; Nicholson and Kim 1997; Reason et al. 2000; Rocha and Simmonds 1997), the link between climate change and El Niño remains unclear (Christensen et al. 2013) due to the large natural variability of ENSO SSTs (Wittenberg 2009), uncertainties surrounding measurements and trends (Solomon and Newman 2012), intermodel differences in ENSO representation and feedbacks (Guilyardi et al. 2012; Kim et al. 2014), and difficulties associated with quantifying ENSO strength (Cai et al. 2015).

  19. Tree-ring analysis of winter climate variability and ENSO in Mediterranean California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woodhouse, C.A.; Univ. of Colorado, Boulder

    2006-01-01

    The feasibility of using tree-ring data as a proxy for regional precipitation and ENSO events in the Mediterranean region of California is explored. A transect of moisture-sensitive tree-ring sites, extending from southwestern to north-central California, documents regional patterns of winter precipitation and replicates the regional response to ENSO events in the 20. century. Proxy records of ENSO were used with the tree-ring data to examine precipitation/ENSO patterns in the 18. and 19. centuries. Results suggest some temporal and spatial variability in the regional precipitation response to ENSO over the last three centuries

  20. Forest Understory Fire in the Brazilian Amazon in ENSO and Non-ENSO Years: Area Burned and Committed Carbon Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alencar, A.; Nepstad, D.; Ver-Diaz, M. Del. C.

    2004-01-01

    "Understory fires" that burn the floor of standing forests are one of the most important types of forest impoverishment in the Amazon, especially during the severe droughts of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes. However, we are aware of no estimates of the areal extent of these fires for the Brazilian Amazon and, hence, of their contribution to Amazon carbon fluxes to the atmosphere. We calculated the area of forest understory fires for the Brazilian Amazon region during an El Nino (1998) and a non El Nino (1995) year based on forest fire scars mapped with satellite images for three locations in eastern and southern Amazon, where deforestation is concentrated. The three study sites represented a gradient of both forest types and dry season severity. The burning scar maps were used to determine how the percentage of forest that burned varied with distance from agricultural clearings. These spatial functions were then applied to similar forest/climate combinations outside of the study sites to derive an initial estimate for the Brazilian Amazon. Ninety-one percent of the forest area that burned in the study sites was within the first kilometer of a clearing for the non ENSO year and within the first four kilometers for the ENSO year. The area of forest burned by understory forest fire during the severe drought (ENSO) year (3.9 millions of hectares) was 13 times greater than the area burned during the average rainfall year (0.2 million hectares), and twice the area of annual deforestation rate. Dense forest was, proportionally, the forest area most affected by understory fires during the El Nino year, while understory fires were concentrated in transitional forests during the year of average rainfall. Our estimate of aboveground tree biomass killed by fire ranged from 0.06 Pg to 0.38 Pg during the ENSO and from 0,004 Pg to 0,024 Pg during the non ENSO.

  1. Trans-Pacific ENSO teleconnections pose a correlated risk to global agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, W. B.; Seager, R.; Cane, M. A.; Baethgen, W.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source of interannual climate variability, particularly in the Pacific Basin. ENSO life-cycles tend to evolve over multiple years, as do the associated trans-Pacific ENSO teleconnections. This analysis, however, represents the first attempt to characterize the structure of the risk posed by ENSO to wheat, maize and soybean production across the Pacific Basin. Our results indicate that most ENSO teleconnections relevant for crop flowering seasons are the result of a single trans-Pacific circulation anomaly that develops in boreal summer and persists through the spring. During the late summer and early fall of a developing ENSO event, the tropical Pacific forces an atmospheric anomaly in the midlatitudes that spans the Pacific Basin. This teleconnection directly links the soybean and maize growing seasons of the US, Mexico and China. It also connects the wheat growing seasons of Argentina, southern Brazil and Australia. The ENSO event peaks in boreal winter, when the atmospheric circulation anomalies intensify and affect maize and soybeans in southeast South America. As the event decays, the ENSO-induced circulation anomalies persist through the wheat flowering seasons in China and the US. While the prospect of ENSO forcing simultaneous droughts in major food producing regions seems disastrous, there may be a silver lining from the perspective of global food security: trans-Pacific ENSO teleconnections to yields are often offsetting between major producing regions in the eastern and western portions of the Pacific Basin. El Niños tend to create good maize and soybean growing conditions in the US and southeast South America, but poor growing conditions in China, Mexico and northeast Brazil. The opposite is true during La Niña. Wheat growing conditions in southeast South America generally have the opposite sign of those in Australia. Finally, we investigate how trade networks interact with this structure of ENSO

  2. Dynamics and chemistry of vortex remnants in late Arctic spring 1997 and 2000: Simulations with the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Konopka

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available High-resolution simulations of the chemical composition of the Arctic stratosphere during late spring 1997 and 2000 were performed with the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS. The simulations were performed for the entire northern hemisphere on two isentropic levels 450 K (~18 km and 585 K (~24 km. The spatial distribution and the lifetime of the vortex remnants formed after the vortex breakup in May 1997 display different behavior above and below 20 km. Above 20 km, vortex remnants propagate southward (up to 40°N and are "frozen in'' in the summer circulation without significant mixing. Below 20 km the southward propagation of the remnants is bounded by the subtropical jet. Their lifetime is shorter by a factor of 2 than that above 20 km, owing to significant stirring below this altitude. The behavior of vortex remnants formed in March 2000 is similar but, due to an earlier vortex breakup, dominated during the first 6 weeks after the vortex breakup by westerly winds, even above 20 km. Vortex remnants formed in May 1997 are characterized by large mixing ratios of HCl indicating negligible, halogen-induced ozone loss. In contrast, mid-latitude ozone loss in late boreal spring 2000 is dominated, until mid-April, by halogen-induced ozone destruction within the vortex remnants, and subsequent transport of the ozone-depleted polar air masses (dilution into the mid-latitudes. By varying the intensity of mixing in CLaMS, the impact of mixing on the formation of ClONO2 and ozone depletion is investigated. We find that the photochemical decomposition of HNO3 and not mixing with NOx-rich mid-latitude air is the main source of NOx within the vortex remnants in March and April 2000. Ozone depletion in the remnants is driven by ClOx photolytically formed from ClONO2. At the end of May 1997, the halogen-induced ozone deficit at 450 K poleward of 30°N amounts to ~12% with ~10% in the polar vortex and ~2% in well-isolated vortex remnants

  3. Changes in Sea Salt Emissions Enhance ENSO Variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Yang; Russell, Lynn M.; Lou, Sijia; Lamjiri, Maryam A.; Liu, Ying; Singh, Balwinder; Ghan, Steven J.

    2016-11-15

    Two 150-year pre-industrial simulations with and without interactive sea salt emissions from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) are performed to quantify the interactions between sea salt emissions and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Variations in sea salt emissions over the tropical Pacific Ocean are affected by changing wind speed associated with ENSO variability. ENSO-induced interannual variations in sea salt emissions result in decreasing (increasing) aerosol optical depth (AOD) by 0.03 over the equatorial central-eastern (western) Pacific Ocean during El Niño events compared to those during La Niña events. These changes in AOD further increase (decrease) radiative fluxes into the atmosphere by +0.2 W m-2 (-0.4 W m-2) over the tropical eastern (western) Pacific. Thereby, sea surface temperature increases (decreases) by 0.2–0.4 K over the tropical eastern (western) Pacific Ocean during El Niño compared to La Niña events and enhances ENSO variability by 10%. The increase in ENSO amplitude is a result of systematic heating (cooling) during the warm (cold) phase, of ENSO in the eastern Pacific. Interannual variations in sea salt emissions then produce the anomalous ascent (subsidence) over the equatorial eastern (western) Pacific between El Niño and La Niña events, which is a result of heating anomalies. Due to variations in sea salt emissions, the convective precipitation is enhanced by 0.6–1.2 mm day-1 over the tropical central-eastern Pacific Ocean and weakened by 0.9–1.5 mm day-1 over the Maritime Continent during El Niño compared to La Niña events, enhancing the precipitation variability over the tropical Pacific.

  4. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO and global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Nyenzi

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available It is widely accepted by the international scientific community that human activities have increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG and aerosols since the pre-industrial era. This increase has contributed to most of the warming (0.6±0.2°C observed over the 20th century, land areas warming more than the oceans, with the 1990s very likely to be the warmest decade of the 20th century (IPCC, 2001. How this warming influences the occurrence, severity and frequency of ENSO episodes remains highly uncertain. The IPCC (2001 assessment of the scientific literature found insufficient evidence to suggest any direct attribution between increase in ENSO events that occurred in the last 20 to 30 years of the 20th century and global warming (IPCC, 2001. However, assessments carried out since then (e.g. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4, in preparations suggest El Niño events have become more frequent, persistent and intense during the last 20 to 30 years compared to the previous 100 years. Attribution to global warming, however, remains highly uncertain. Efforts to simulate and model past, present and future behaviour of ENSO under a warming world due to enhanced GHG concentrations produce conflicting results. Since substantial internally-generated variability of ENSO behaviour on multi-decadal to century timescales occurs in long, unforced atmospheric-oceanic general circulation model (AOGCM simulations, the attribution of past and future changes in ENSO amplitude and frequency to external forcing like GHG concentrations cannot be made with certainty. Such attribution would require extensive use of ensemble climate experiments or long experiments with stabilised GHG forcing. Although there are now better ENSO simulations in AOGCM, further model improvements are needed to simulate a more realistic Pacific climatology and seasonal cycle of the key modes influencing the climate of the region, as well as more realistic ENSO variability

  5. The Role of Reversed Equatorial Zonal Transport in Terminating an ENSO Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, H. C.; Hu, Z. Z.; Huang, B.; Sui, C. H.

    2016-02-01

    In this study, we demonstrate that a sudden reversal of anomalous equatorial zonal current at the peaking ENSO phase triggers the rapid termination of an ENSO event. Throughout an ENSO cycle, the anomalous equatorial zonal current is strongly controlled by the concavity of the anomalous thermocline meridional structure near the equator. During the ENSO developing phase, the anomalous zonal current in the central and eastern Pacific generally enhances the ENSO growth through its zonal SST advection. In the mature phase of ENSO, however, the equatorial thermocline depth anomalies are reflected in the eastern Pacific and slowly propagate westward off the equator in both hemispheres. As a result, the concavity of the thermocline anomalies near the equator is reversed, i.e., the off-equatorial thermocline depth anomalies become higher than that on the equator for El Niño events and lower for La Niño events. This meridional change of thermocline structure reverses zonal transport rapidly in the central-to-eastern equatorial Pacific, which weakens the ENSO SST anomalies by reversed advection. More importantly, the reversed zonal mass transport weakens the existing zonal tilting of equatorial thermocline and suppresses the thermocline feedback. Both processes are concentrated in the eastern equatorial Pacific and can be effective on subseasonal time scales. These current reversal effects are built-in to the ENSO peak phase and independent of the zonal wind effect on thermocline slope. It functions as an oceanic control on ENSO evolution during both El Niño and La Niña events.

  6. ENSO variations and drought occurrence in Indonesia and the Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harger, J. R. E.

    The "El Nino-Southern Oscillation" (ENSO) consists of a sympathetic movement involving the Pacific ocean and associated atmosphere in an essentially chaotic manner along the equator. The system oscillates between extremes of the so-called "warm events" usually lasting 1 or 2 yr and involving movement of warm sea water from the western Pacific along the equator to impact on the west coast of the American continent and "cold events" associated with easterly trade-wind-induced flows of colder water from the eastern Pacific towards the west. Information drawn from meteorological records in southeast Asia clearly indicates that each event is unique in terms of the signature which it imposes on the rainfall and temperature from location to location. Nevertheless, a strong underlying pattern within the context of each event, itself apparently initiated or molded by the character of the preceding years, can be detected. This pattern permits relatively circumscribed predictions of forward conditions (drought intensity) for 2-3 yr, to be made once the event "locks in" for the duration of the warm event and at least 1 yr beyond. The character of the intervening non-ENSO years can also be projected but in a more tenuous, though fairly regular manner. When the non-ENSO years leading up to a warm event are scored in terms of the extent to which they depart from the secular warming trend for the warmest month using data from Jakarta and Semarang on the north coast of Java, the cumulative temperature deviations signal the character of the upcoming ENSO event. This signal does not, however, allow an exact determination to be made with respect to whether or not an ENSO event will occur in the next year. For the available historical instrumental data, all markedly upward-moving traces eventually delivered a hot dry season in east Indonesia. This sort of tendency within non-ENSO blocks can thus serve as a caution in the sense that a very hot ENSO event is likely in the offing. The

  7. ENSO Dynamics and Trends, AN Alternate View

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rojo Hernandez, J. D.; Lall, U.; Mesa, O. J.

    2017-12-01

    El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important inter-annual climate fluctuation on a planetary level with great effects on the hydrological cycle, agriculture, ecosystems, health and society. This work demonstrates the use of the Non-Homogeneus hidden Markov Models (NHMM) to characterize ENSO using a set of discrete states with variable transition probabilities matrix using the data of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) of the Kaplan Extended SST v2 between 120E -90W, 15N-15S from Jan-1856 to Dec-2016. ENSO spatial patterns, their temporal distribution, the transition probabilities between patterns and their temporal evolution are the main results of the NHHMM applied to ENSO. The five "hidden" states found appear to represent the different "Flavors" described in the literature: the Canonical El Niño, Central El Niño, a Neutral state, Central La Niña and the Canonical Niña. Using the whole record length of the SSTA it was possible to identify trends in the dynamic system, with a decrease in the probability of occurrence of the cold events and a significant increase of the warm events, in particular of Central El Niño events whose probability of occurrence has increased Dramatically since 1960 coupled with increases in global temperature.

  8. Study of the global and regional climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude using SPEEDY AGCM

    KAUST Repository

    Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar; Kucharski, Fred; Azharuddin, Syed

    2017-01-01

    ENSO is considered as a strong atmospheric teleconnection that has pronounced global and regional circulation effects. It modifies global monsoon system, especially, Asian and African monsoons. Previous studies suggest that both the frequency and magnitude of ENSO events have increased over the last few decades resulting in a need to study climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude both at global and regional scales. Hence, to better understand the impact of ENSO amplitude over the tropical and extratropical regions focussing on the Asian and African domains, ENSO sensitivity experiments are conducted using ICTPAGCM (‘SPEEDY’). It is anticipated that the tropical Pacific SST forcing will be enough to produce ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns; therefore, the model is forced using NINO3.4 regressed SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific only. SPEEDY reproduces the impact of ENSO over the Pacific, North and South America and African regions very well. However, it underestimates ENSO teleconnection patterns and associated changes over South Asia, particularly in the Indian region, which suggests that the tropical Pacific SST forcing is not sufficient to represent ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns over South Asia. Therefore, SST forcing over the tropical Indian Ocean together with air–sea coupling is also required for better representation of ENSO-induced changes in these regions. Moreover, results obtained by this pacemaker experiment show that ENSO impacts are relatively stronger over the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) compared to extratropics and high latitude regions. The positive phase of ENSO causes weakening in rainfall activity over African tropical rain belt, parts of South and Southeast Asia, whereas, the La Niña phase produces more rain over these regions during the summer season. Model results further reveal that ENSO magnitude has a stronger impact over African Sahel and South Asia, especially over the Indian region because of its significant

  9. Study of the global and regional climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude using SPEEDY AGCM

    KAUST Repository

    Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar

    2017-03-09

    ENSO is considered as a strong atmospheric teleconnection that has pronounced global and regional circulation effects. It modifies global monsoon system, especially, Asian and African monsoons. Previous studies suggest that both the frequency and magnitude of ENSO events have increased over the last few decades resulting in a need to study climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude both at global and regional scales. Hence, to better understand the impact of ENSO amplitude over the tropical and extratropical regions focussing on the Asian and African domains, ENSO sensitivity experiments are conducted using ICTPAGCM (‘SPEEDY’). It is anticipated that the tropical Pacific SST forcing will be enough to produce ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns; therefore, the model is forced using NINO3.4 regressed SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific only. SPEEDY reproduces the impact of ENSO over the Pacific, North and South America and African regions very well. However, it underestimates ENSO teleconnection patterns and associated changes over South Asia, particularly in the Indian region, which suggests that the tropical Pacific SST forcing is not sufficient to represent ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns over South Asia. Therefore, SST forcing over the tropical Indian Ocean together with air–sea coupling is also required for better representation of ENSO-induced changes in these regions. Moreover, results obtained by this pacemaker experiment show that ENSO impacts are relatively stronger over the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) compared to extratropics and high latitude regions. The positive phase of ENSO causes weakening in rainfall activity over African tropical rain belt, parts of South and Southeast Asia, whereas, the La Niña phase produces more rain over these regions during the summer season. Model results further reveal that ENSO magnitude has a stronger impact over African Sahel and South Asia, especially over the Indian region because of its significant

  10. Analytical Formulation of Equatorial Standing Wave Phenomena: Application to QBO and ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pukite, P. R.

    2016-12-01

    Key equatorial climate phenomena such as QBO and ENSO have never been adequately explained as deterministic processes. This in spite of recent research showing growing evidence of predictable behavior. This study applies the fundamental Laplace tidal equations with simplifying assumptions along the equator — i.e. no Coriolis force and a small angle approximation. To connect the analytical Sturm-Liouville results to observations, a first-order forcing consistent with a seasonally aliased Draconic or nodal lunar period (27.21d aliased into 2.36y) is applied. This has a plausible rationale as it ties a latitudinal forcing cycle via a cross-product to the longitudinal terms in the Laplace formulation. The fitted results match the features of QBO both qualitatively and quantitatively; adding second-order terms due to other seasonally aliased lunar periods provides finer detail while remaining consistent with the physical model. Further, running symbolic regression machine learning experiments on the data provided a validation to the approach, as it discovered the same analytical form and fitted values as the first principles Laplace model. These results conflict with Lindzen's QBO model, in that his original formulation fell short of making the lunar connection, even though Lindzen himself asserted "it is unlikely that lunar periods could be produced by anything other than the lunar tidal potential".By applying a similar analytical approach to ENSO, we find that the tidal equations need to be replaced with a Mathieu-equation formulation consistent with describing a sloshing process in the thermocline depth. Adapting the hydrodynamic math of sloshing, we find a biennial modulation coupled with angular momentum forcing variations matching the Chandler wobble gives an impressive match over the measured ENSO range of 1880 until the present. Lunar tidal periods and an additional triaxial nutation of 14 year period provide additional fidelity. The caveat is a phase

  11. Coastal upwelling along the southwest coast of India – ENSO modulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Muni Krishna

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available An index of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO in the Pacific during pre monsoon season is shown to account for a significant part of the variability of coastal Sea Surface Temperature (SST anomalies measured a few months later within the wind driven southwest coast of India coastal upwelling region 7° N–14° N. This teleconnection is thought to result from an atmospheric bridge between the Pacific and north Indian Oceans, leading to warm (cold ENSO events being associated with relaxation (intensification of the Indian trade winds and of the wind-induced coastal upwelling. This ENSO related modulation of the wind-driven coastal upwelling appears to contribute to the connection observed at the basin-scale between ENSO and SST in the Arabian Sea. The ability to use this teleconnection to give warning of large changes in the southwest coast of India coastal upwelling few months in advance is successfully tested using data from 1998 and 1999 ENSO events.

  12. Mean Bias in Seasonal Forecast Model and ENSO Prediction Error.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Seon Tae; Jeong, Hye-In; Jin, Fei-Fei

    2017-07-20

    This study uses retrospective forecasts made using an APEC Climate Center seasonal forecast model to investigate the cause of errors in predicting the amplitude of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-driven sea surface temperature variability. When utilizing Bjerknes coupled stability (BJ) index analysis, enhanced errors in ENSO amplitude with forecast lead times are found to be well represented by those in the growth rate estimated by the BJ index. ENSO amplitude forecast errors are most strongly associated with the errors in both the thermocline slope response and surface wind response to forcing over the tropical Pacific, leading to errors in thermocline feedback. This study concludes that upper ocean temperature bias in the equatorial Pacific, which becomes more intense with increasing lead times, is a possible cause of forecast errors in the thermocline feedback and thus in ENSO amplitude.

  13. Albania’s Transformation since 1997: Successes and Failures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jusufi Islam

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available In 1997 Albania experienced a collapse of order and widespread violence, which resulted in a situation where the government was overthrown and some 2,000 people were killed. The 1997 disorder came as a result of the collapse of fraudulent financial pyramid schemes that had all the features of a war-like economic structure. During the 1997 events, large-scale confiscation and stealing of state assets occurred. Albania’s transitional period from communism to democracy, which began in 1990, led to the establishment of new structures for profiting from the country’s resources. Some of these political and economic structures, in the aftermath of the 1997 events, disappeared and others, including their structural effects, persist and have had an impact on the country’s political stability and economic progress. Today, both the successes and failures of the country are assessed based on the progress that the country has made since the 1997 events. The paper analyses the 1997 events and the transformation of Albania’s political and economic structures between 1997 and 2016, considering both achievements and failures. It looks at how the country has dealt with the post-1997 peace-building and development agenda from the perspective of it being a success. It looks at the factors that led to state failure in 1997 and at the factors that continue and have generated a path dependency to the current political context of the country. Although a lot has been written concerning the 1997 events, very little analysis has been conducted concerning what it means from the perspective of research on state failure. In this context, the proposed paper seeks to offer Albania as a case study example of a transformation process, from the uprising to the current situation, which is characterized as a mixture of successes and failures. The belief is that the proposed paper will point to some lessons learned for the strategies directed at the transformation processes.

  14. ENSO activity during the last climate cycle using Individual Foraminifera Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leduc, G.; Vidal, L.; Thirumalai, K.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the principal mode of interannual climate variability and affects key climate parameters such as low-latitude rainfall variability. Recent climate modeling experiments tend to suggest an increase in the frequency of both El Niño and La Niña events in the future, but these results remain model-dependent and require to be validated by paleodata-model comparisons. Fossil corals indicate that the ENSO variance during the 20th century is particularly high as compared to other time periods of the Holocene. Beyond the Holocene, however, little is known on past ENSO changes, which makes difficult to test paleoclimate model simulations that are used to study the ENSO sensitivity to various types of forcings. We have expanded an Individual Foraminifera Analysis (IFA) dataset using the thermocline-dwelling N. dutertrei on a marine core collected in the Panama Basin (Leduc et al., 2009), that has proven to be a skillful way to reconstruct the ENSO (Thirumalai et al., 2013). Our new IFA dataset comprehensively covers the Holocene, allowing to verify how the IFA method compares with ENSO reconstructions using corals. The dataset then extends back in time to Marine Isotope Stage 6 (MIS), with a special focus the last deglaciation and Termination II (MIS5/6) time windows, as well as key time periods to tests the sensitivity of ENSO to ice volume and orbital parameters. The new dataset confirms variable ENSO activity during the Holocene and weaker activity during LGM than during the Holocene, as a recent isotope-enabled climate model simulations of the LGM suggests (Zhu et al., 2017). Such pattern is reproduced for the Termination II. Leduc, G., L. Vidal, O. Cartapanis, and E. Bard (2009), Modes of eastern equatorial Pacific thermocline variability: Implications for ENSO dynamics over the last glacial period, Paleoceanography, 24, PA3202, doi:10.1029/2008PA001701. Thirumalai, K., J. W. Partin, C. S. Jackson, and T. M. Quinn (2013

  15. DMS role in ENSO cycle in the tropics: DMS Role in ENSO Cycle in Tropics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Li [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Now at Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine California USA; Cameron-Smith, Philip [Atmospheric, Earth and Energy Division, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore California USA; Russell, Lynn M. [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Ghan, Steven J. [Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Liu, Ying [Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Elliott, Scott [Climate Ocean Sea Ice Modeling, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos New Mexico USA; Yang, Yang [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Lou, Sijia [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Lamjiri, Maryam A. [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Manizza, Manfredi [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA

    2016-11-16

    We examined the multiyear mean and variability of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and its relationship to sulfate aerosols, as well as cloud microphysical and radiative properties. We conducted a 150 year simulation using preindustrial conditions produced by the Community Earth System Model embedded with a dynamic DMS module. The model simulated the mean spatial distribution of DMS emissions and burden, as well as sulfur budgets associated with DMS, SO2, H2SO4, and sulfate that were generally similar to available observations and inventories for a variety of regions. Changes in simulated sea-to-air DMS emissions and associated atmospheric abundance, along with associated aerosols and cloud and radiative properties, were consistently dominated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle in the tropical Pacific region. Simulated DMS, aerosols, and clouds showed a weak positive feedback on sea surface temperature. This feedback suggests a link among DMS, aerosols, clouds, and climate on interannual timescales. The variability of DMS emissions associated with ENSO was primarily caused by a higher variation in wind speed during La Niña events. The simulation results also suggest that variations in DMS emissions increase the frequency of La Niña events but do not alter ENSO variability in terms of the standard deviation of the Niño 3 sea surface temperature anomalies.

  16. Levels of persistent fluorinated, chlorinated and brominated compounds in human blood collected in Sweden in 1997-2000

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindstroem, G.; Kaerrman, A.; Bavel, B. van [MTM Research Centre, Oerebro Univ. (Sweden); Hardell, L. [Dept. of Oncology, Univ. Hospital, Oerebro (Sweden); Hedlund, B. [Environmental Monitoring Section, Swedish EPA, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2004-09-15

    Levels of persistent fluorinated, chlorinated and brominated compounds in blood collected from the Swedish population have been determined in connection with several exposure and monitoring studies at the MTM Research Centre. A data base with 631 individual congener specific measurements on halogenated POPs such as dioxins, PCBs, HCB, DDE, chlordanes, PBDEs and PFAs including information on residency, age, BMI, diet, occupation, number of children, smoking habits, immunological status etc. has been compiled from samples collected between 1994 and 2004. A brief overview focusing on levels of some persistent chlorinated, brominated and fluorinated, compounds in blood collected in a background population group (n=83) in 1997-2000 is given here.

  17. Comparative Study of the Effects of ENSO Phenomenon (El Niño, La Niña on Temperature and Precipitation of Mashhad

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    vajiheh mohammadi sabet

    2017-03-01

    occurring high ENSO, these three indexes (ENSO index, standardized rainfall and anomalies temperature were compared. The co-variation of these indexes was compared. Also, the correlation and cross correlation for each period of occurring ENSO, with rain and temperature of Mashhad was calculated. Results and Discussion: Mashhad monthly temperature and precipitation were compared with the extreme values of ENSO index in periods of the occurrence this phenomenon (1950-2016. In addition, the correlation and cross-correlation between ENSO-Rainfall index and ENSO-temperature index for this period were calculated.Forecasted temperature for 2016 by ARMA (1,1 was 13.2 Degrees Celsius, which has 0.2 degree increase in comparison to last year. Results showed thatthere is no an obvious relation between ENSO-Temperature and ENSO-Rainfall in interval (-1, +1. But there are good relation between ENSO-Temperature and ENSO-Rainfall beyond of (-1,+1. The results of Elnino showed that the monthly precipitation and temperature increase with a lag of 2 to 5 months and 0 to 4 months, respectively. The results of Lanina showed that the monthly precipitation and temperature decrease with a lag of 3 to 5 months and 1 to 4 months, respectively. Also when ENSO index is located in the interval (-1, +1, there is no certain harmony with temperature and precipitation of Mashhad. Conclusions: The aim of this study was evaluating the effect of the ENSO phenomenon on monthly temperature and precipitation of Mashhad.Mashhad monthly temperature and precipitation, respectively, for 132 and 124 years were available.Precipitation was static and has no trend, but temperature was not static and has two changed (jumped point in 1976 and 2000. MARS regression was used for patterning the process. Removing the trend was done by MARS model and the data was obtained without trend. Monthly ENSO index since 1950 from reliable websites worldwide (NOAA was obtained. Mashhad monthly temperature data was animalized and

  18. ENSO's non-stationary and non-Gaussian character: the role of climate shifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boucharel, J.; Dewitte, B.; Garel, B.; Du Penhoat, Y.

    2009-07-01

    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of climate variability in the Pacific, having socio-economic impacts on surrounding regions. ENSO exhibits significant modulation on decadal to inter-decadal time scales which is related to changes in its characteristics (onset, amplitude, frequency, propagation, and predictability). Some of these characteristics tend to be overlooked in ENSO studies, such as its asymmetry (the number and amplitude of warm and cold events are not equal) and the deviation of its statistics from those of the Gaussian distribution. These properties could be related to the ability of the current generation of coupled models to predict ENSO and its modulation. Here, ENSO's non-Gaussian nature and asymmetry are diagnosed from in situ data and a variety of models (from intermediate complexity models to full-physics coupled general circulation models (CGCMs)) using robust statistical tools initially designed for financial mathematics studies. In particular α-stable laws are used as theoretical background material to measure (and quantify) the non-Gaussian character of ENSO time series and to estimate the skill of ``naïve'' statistical models in producing deviation from Gaussian laws and asymmetry. The former are based on non-stationary processes dominated by abrupt changes in mean state and empirical variance. It is shown that the α-stable character of ENSO may result from the presence of climate shifts in the time series. Also, cool (warm) periods are associated with ENSO statistics having a stronger (weaker) tendency towards Gaussianity and lower (greater) asymmetry. This supports the hypothesis of ENSO being rectified by changes in mean state through nonlinear processes. The relationship between changes in mean state and nonlinearity (skewness) is further investigated both in the Zebiak and Cane (1987)'s model and the models of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC). Whereas there is a clear relationship in all

  19. Do ENSO and Coastal Development Enhance Coastal Burial of Terrestrial Carbon?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macreadie, Peter I; Rolph, Timothy C; Boyd, Ron; Schröder-Adams, Claudia J; Skilbeck, Charles G

    2015-01-01

    Carbon cycling on the east coast of Australia has the potential to be strongly affected by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) intensification and coastal development (industrialization and urbanization). We performed paleoreconstructions of estuarine sediments from a seagrass-dominated estuary on the east coast of Australia (Tuggerah Lake, New South Wales) to test the hypothesis that millennial-scale ENSO intensification and European settlement in Australia have increased the transfer of organic carbon from land into coastal waters. Our data show that carbon accumulation rates within coastal sediments increased significantly during periods of maximum millennial-scale ENSO intensity ("super-ENSO") and coastal development. We suggest that ENSO and coastal development destabilize and liberate terrestrial soil carbon, which, during rainfall events (e.g., La Niña), washes into estuaries and becomes trapped and buried by coastal vegetation (seagrass in this case). Indeed, periods of high carbon burial were generally characterized as having rapid sedimentation rates, higher content of fine-grained sediments, and increased content of wood and charcoal fragments. These results, though preliminary, suggest that coastal development and ENSO intensification--both of which are predicted to increase over the coming century--can enhance capture and burial of terrestrial carbon by coastal ecosystems. These findings have important relevance for current efforts to build an understanding of terrestrial-marine carbon connectivity into global carbon budgets.

  20. Interhemispheric temperature difference as a predictor of boreal winter ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piskozub, Jacek; Gutowska, Dorota

    2013-04-01

    We use statistical analysis to show statistically significant relationship between the boreal winter MEI index of ENSO and HadCRUT3 temperature difference between Northern and Southern hemispheres (NH - SH) during the preceding summer. Correlation values increase (in absolute terms) if the correlated time periods are increased from month to seasonal length. For example December and January (DJ) MEI values anticorrelate stronger with the preceding MJJA period than with any of the four months taken separately. We believe this is further evidence that the correlation is caused by a real physical process as increase of the averaging period tends to reduce statistical noise. The motivation for looking for such a relationship comes from review of literature on paleoclimatic ENSO behavior. We have noticed that in many cases relatively cold NH coincided with "strong ENSO" (frequent El Niños), for example the Ice Age periods and Little Ice Age. On the other hand periods of relatively warm NH (the Holocene climate optimum or Medieval Climate Anomaly) are coincident with frequent or even "permanent" La Niñas. This relationship suggest the influence of the position of Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) on the frequency of El Niños. The simplest physical mechanism of the relationship is that the positive (negative) NH-SH temperature difference causes a north (south) shift of ITCZ with a parallel shift of trade wind zones. The North-South orographic difference between the Panama Isthmus and the South America may cause stronger (weaker) trade winds in Eastern Tropical Pacific increasing (decreasing) the thermochemical tilt which, in turn, causes a more negative (positive) ENSO values. Of course this may be only a first approximation of the real mechanism of this "teleconnection". The correlations we have found are not strong even if statistically significant. For example, the MJJA NH-SH temperature vs. DJ MEI correlation has r = -0.28 implying it explains only 8% of boreal

  1. Shifting patterns of ENSO variability from a 492-year South Pacific coral core

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tangri, N.; Linsley, B. K.; Mucciarone, D.; Dunbar, R. B.

    2017-12-01

    Anticipating the impacts of ENSO in a changing climate requires detailed reconstructions of changes in its timing, amplitude, and spatial pattern, as well as attempts to attribute those changes to external forcing or internal variability. A continuous coral δ18O record from American Samoa, in the tropical South Pacific, sheds light on almost five centuries of these changes. We find evidence of internally-driven 50-100 year cycles with broad peaks of high variability punctuated by short transitions of low variability. We see a long, slow trend towards more frequent ENSO events, punctuated by sharp decreases in frequency; the 20th century in particular shows a strong trend towards higher-frequency ENSO. Due to the unique location of American Samoa with respect to ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, we infer changes in the spatial pattern of ENSO. American Samoa currently lies on the ENSO 3.4 nodal line - the boomerang shape that separates waters warmed by El Niño from those that cool. Closer examination reveals that SST around American Samoa displays opposing responses to Eastern and Central Pacific ENSO events. However, this has not always been the case; in the late 19th and early 20th century, SST responded similarly to both flavors of ENSO. We interpret this to mean a geographic narrowing towards the equator of the eastern Pacific El Niño SST anomaly pattern in the first half of the 20th century.

  2. Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall associated with ENSO and its Predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, C. S.; Huang, B.; Zhu, J.; Marx, L.; Kinter, J. L.; Shukla, J.

    2015-12-01

    The leading modes of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) rainfall variability and their seasonal predictability are investigated using the CFSv2 hindcasts initialized from multiple ocean analyses over the period of 1979-2008 and observation-based analyses. It is shown that the two leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of the observed ASM rainfall anomalies, which together account for about 34% of total variance, largely correspond to the ASM responses to the ENSO influences during the summers of the developing and decaying years of a Pacific anomalous event, respectively. These two ASM modes are then designated as the contemporary and delayed ENSO responses, respectively. It is demonstrated that the CFSv2 is capable of predicting these two dominant ASM modes up to the lead of 5 months. More importantly, the predictability of the ASM rainfall are much higher with respect to the delayed ENSO mode than the contemporary one, with the predicted principal component time series of the former maintaining high correlation skill and small ensemble spread with all lead months whereas the latter shows significant degradation in both measures with lead-time. A composite analysis for the ASM rainfall anomalies of all warm ENSO events in this period substantiates the finding that the ASM is more predictable following an ENSO event. The enhanced predictability mainly comes from the evolution of the warm SST anomalies over the Indian Ocean in the spring of the ENSO maturing phases and the persistence of the anomalous high sea surface pressure over the western Pacific in the subsequent summer, which the hindcasts are able to capture reasonably well. The results also show that the ensemble initialization with multiple ocean analyses improves the CFSv2's prediction skill of both ENSO and ASM rainfall. In fact, the skills of the ensemble mean hindcasts initialized from the four different ocean analyses are always equivalent to the best ones initialized from any individual ocean

  3. ENSO Related Interannual Lightning Variability from the Full TRMM LIS Lightning Climatology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Austin; Cecil, Daniel J.

    2018-01-01

    It has been shown that the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) contributes to inter-annual variability of lightning production in the tropics and subtropics more than any other atmospheric oscillation. This study further investigated how ENSO phase affects lightning production in the tropics and subtropics. Using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) for ENSO phase, lightning data were averaged into corresponding mean annual warm, cold, and neutral 'years' for analysis of the different phases. An examination of the regional sensitivities and preliminary analysis of three locations was conducted using model reanalysis data to determine the leading convective mechanisms in these areas and how they might respond to the ENSO phases. These processes were then studied for inter-annual variance and subsequent correlation to ENSO during the study period to best describe the observed lightning deviations from year to year at each location.

  4. Indo-Pacific ENSO modes in a double-basin Zebiak-Cane model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wieners, Claudia; de Ruijter, Will; Dijkstra, Henk

    2016-04-01

    We study Indo-Pacific interactions on ENSO timescales in a double-basin version of the Zebiak-Cane ENSO model, employing both time integrations and bifurcation analysis (continuation methods). The model contains two oceans (the Indian and Pacific Ocean) separated by a meridional wall. Interaction between the basins is possible via the atmosphere overlaying both basins. We focus on the effect of the Indian Ocean (both its mean state and its variability) on ENSO stability. In addition, inspired by analysis of observational data (Wieners et al, Coherent tropical Indo-Pacific interannual climate variability, in review), we investigate the effect of state-dependent atmospheric noise. Preliminary results include the following: 1) The background state of the Indian Ocean stabilises the Pacific ENSO (i.e. the Hopf bifurcation is shifted to higher values of the SST-atmosphere coupling), 2) the West Pacific cooling (warming) co-occurring with El Niño (La Niña) is essential to simulate the phase relations between Pacific and Indian SST anomalies, 3) a non-linear atmosphere is needed to simulate the effect of the Indian Ocean variability onto the Pacific ENSO that is suggested by observations.

  5. Source of low frequency modulation of ENSO amplitude in a CGCM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moon, Byung-Kwon [Chonbuk National University, Division of Science Education/Institute of Science Education, Jeonju (Korea); Yeh, Sang-Wook [Korea Ocean Research and Development Institute, Ansan (Korea); Dewitte, Boris [Laboratoire d' Etude en Geophysique et Oceanographie Spatiale, Toulouse (France); Jhun, Jong-Ghap [Seoul National University, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul (Korea); Kang, In-Sik [Seoul National University, Climate Environment System Research Center (CES), Seoul (Korea)

    2007-07-15

    We study the relationship between changes in equatorial stratification and low frequency El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude modulation in a coupled general circulation model (CGCM) that uses an anomaly coupling strategy to prevent climate drifts in the mean state. The stratification is intensified at upper levels in the western and central equatorial Pacific during periods of high ENSO amplitude. Furthermore, changes in equatorial stratification are connected with subsurface temperature anomalies originating from the central south tropical Pacific. The correlation analysis of ocean temperature anomalies against an index for the ENSO modulation supports the hypothesis of the existence of an oceanic ''tunnel'' that connects the south tropical Pacific to the equatorial wave guide. Further analysis of the wind stress projection coefficient onto the oceanic baroclinic modes suggests that the low frequency modulation of ENSO amplitude is associated with a significant contribution of higher-order modes in the western and central equatorial Pacific. In the light of these results, we suggest that, in the CGCM, change in the baroclinic mode energy distribution associated with low frequency ENSO amplitude modulation have its source in the central south tropical Pacific. (orig.)

  6. Impacto de los eventos de El Niño Southern oscillation (ENSO sobre la leishmaniosis cutánea en Sucre, Venezuela, a través del uso de información satelital, 1994 - 2003

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gilberto Cabaniel S

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available Objetivos: Describir los posibles impactos de El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO sobre la leishmaniosis cutánea (LC en Sucre, Venezuela en el período 1994-2003. Materiales y Métodos: La data climática se obtuvo de sistemas remotos y fue clasificada de acuerdo con la National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA en periodos El Niño, Neutral o La Niña, usando el Southern Oscillation Index (SOI como indicador de variabilidad. Los datos de LC fueron obtenidos de la Gerencia de Saneamiento Ambiental en Sucre. Se realizaron comparaciones de las variaciones anuales y desviaciones de las tendencias medias, entre la incidencia de LC y variabilidad climática, así como modelos de regresión. Resultados: Se registraron entre 1994 -2003 en Sucre 2212 casos de LC. Se observaron tres fases importantes de El Niño: 1994-1995, 1997-1998 y 2001-2003, la más relevante correspondió a 1997-1998, que fue seguido de un periodo frío y lluvioso en 1999 (La Niña. Durante 1999/2000, se registraron 360 casos de LC en Sucre, con importante variabilidad intraanual, se observó un incremento en 66,7% de los casos de LC (F=10,06, p=0,0051 asociado a la presencia de La Niña débil (poco frío y lluvioso. Los modelos mostraron que a mayores valores del SOI menor incidencia de LC (r 2 =0,3308, p=0,0504. El incremento sobre la tendencia media de las precipitaciones se asoció con incrementos sobre las tendencias de la LC durante 1994-2003 (p=0,0358. Conclusiones: Estos datos reflejan la importancia del ENSO sobre la incidencia de la LC, abriendo una nueva línea de investigación con posible impacto en la predicción y monitoreo con relevancia en salud pública.

  7. Indian Ocean and Indian summer monsoon: relationships without ENSO in ocean-atmosphere coupled simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crétat, Julien; Terray, Pascal; Masson, Sébastien; Sooraj, K. P.; Roxy, Mathew Koll

    2017-08-01

    The relationship between the Indian Ocean and the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and their respective influence over the Indo-Western North Pacific (WNP) region are examined in the absence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in two partially decoupled global experiments. ENSO is removed by nudging the tropical Pacific simulated sea surface temperature (SST) toward SST climatology from either observations or a fully coupled control run. The control reasonably captures the observed relationships between ENSO, ISM and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Despite weaker amplitude, IODs do exist in the absence of ENSO and are triggered by a boreal spring ocean-atmosphere coupled mode over the South-East Indian Ocean similar to that found in the presence of ENSO. These pure IODs significantly affect the tropical Indian Ocean throughout boreal summer, inducing a significant modulation of both the local Walker and Hadley cells. This meridional circulation is masked in the presence of ENSO. However, these pure IODs do not significantly influence the Indian subcontinent rainfall despite overestimated SST variability in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean compared to observations. On the other hand, they promote a late summer cross-equatorial quadrupole rainfall pattern linking the tropical Indian Ocean with the WNP, inducing important zonal shifts of the Walker circulation despite the absence of ENSO. Surprisingly, the interannual ISM rainfall variability is barely modified and the Indian Ocean does not force the monsoon circulation when ENSO is removed. On the contrary, the monsoon circulation significantly forces the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal SSTs, while its connection with the western tropical Indian Ocean is clearly driven by ENSO in our numerical framework. Convection and diabatic heating associated with above-normal ISM induce a strong response over the WNP, even in the absence of ENSO, favoring moisture convergence over India.

  8. Vegetation anomalies associated with the ENSO phenomenon in the Cauca river valley, Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. Valencia

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The main factors affecting the production and yield of sugarcane are variety, agronomic management, soil type and climate, of which the first three there is some control, while the climate is one factor of which you cannot have any control, therefore, it should be monitored. Colombia, being located in the equatorial pacific, is affected by two atmospheric oceanic phenomena known as “El Niño” and “La Niña”, which make up the climatic phenomenon of ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation and affect the quantity and the number of days with rainfall and influences the production of sugarcane. The objective of this work is to identify spatially and temporally the zones with greater and lower impact of the ENSO phenomenon in the cultivation of sugarcane in Colombia through the use of the Standard Vegetation Index (SVI and the Rainfall Anomally Index (RAI using EVI/MODIS images and precipitation data from meteorological stations on a quarterly basis for the period 2000-2015. A similar trend was found between both indices in the “El Niño” and “Neutral” seasons, while in the “La Niña” season the RAI tended to rise while the SVI decreased when the RAI was very high, this tendency being much more marked in areas with floods caused by the overflow of the main rivers. In addition, a comparison was made between the SVI index and a productivity anomaly index (IAP, finding a direct correlation between both (R2 = 0.4, p<0.001. This work showed that through the use of vegetation indexes, a temporal analysis of the impact of climate on an agricultural crop can be carried out, especially with ENSO conditions.

  9. La pluviométrie au Pérou pendant les phases ENSO et LNSO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available Les données mensuelles (1960-1990 de précipitations de 21 stations situées dans les trois domaines physiques du Pérou (côte, Andes et plaine amazonienne sont analysées lors des phases ENSO et LNSO de l’Oscillation Australe du Pacifique. Ce n’est qu’à Piura, dans la région côtière du Nord, que les excédents sont significatifs en phase ENSO (test de Kolmogorov-Smirnov mais les volumes précipités sont très différents d’un événement à l’autre. Ailleurs, n’apparaît pas de différence significative entre les pluies des phases ENSO (ou LNSO et celles des périodes normales. Toutefois, la pluviométrie est souvent déficitaire dans les Andes en phase ENSO en période LNSO, elle est également déficitaire au Sud des Andes, mais plus souvent excédentaire au Nord. Dans la plaine amazonienne, la variabilité spatio-temporelle est trop importante lors des deux phases pour que soit esquissé un comportement général. LA PLUVIOMETRÍA EN EL PERÚ DURANTE LAS FASES ENSO Y LNSO. Los datos mensuales (1960-1990 de precipitación de 21 estaciones ubicadas en la Costa, la Sierra y la Selva de Perú son estudiados durante las fases ENSO y LNSO de la Oscilación del Sur del Pacífico. Las lluvias de Piura, en el norte de la Costa, son las únicas que presentan excesos significativos (test de Kolmogorov-Smirnov durante la fase ENSO pero los volúmenes cambian mucho de un evento a otro. No hay, en otros lugares, diferencia significativa entre las lluvias de las fases ENSO (o LNSO y las lluvias de años normales. Pero, muchas veces, la pluviosidad es deficitaria en los Andes durante los ENSO durante los eventos LNSO, las lluvias son también deficitarias en los Andes del Sur, pero más veces hay excesos en el Norte. En la Selva Amazónica, la variabilidad espacio-temporal es demasiado grande para dibujar un comportamiento general. RAINFALL IN PERU DURING THE ENSO AND LNSO PHASES. Monthly rainfall data (1960-1990 taken from 21 stations in three

  10. Understanding ENSO dynamics through the exploration of past climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phipps, Steven J; Brown, Jaclyn N

    2010-01-01

    The palaeoclimate record shows that significant changes in ENSO characteristics took place during the Holocene. Exploring these changes, using both data and models, provides a means of understanding ENSO dynamics. Previous modelling studies have suggested a mechanism whereby changes in the Earth's orbital geometry explain the strengthening of ENSO over the Holocene. Decreasing summer insolation over the Asian landmass resulted in a weakening of the Asian monsoon system. This led to a weakening of the easterly trade winds in the western Pacific, creating conditions more favourable for El Nino development. To explore this hypothesised forcing mechanism, we use a climate system model to conduct a suite of simulations of the climate of the past 8,000 years. In the early Holocene, we find that the Asian summer monsoon system is intensified, resulting in an amplification of the easterly trade winds in the western Pacific. The stronger trade winds represent a barrier to the eastward propagation of westerly wind bursts, therefore inhibiting the onset of El Nino events. The fundamental behaviour of ENSO remains unchanged, with the major change over the Holocene being the influence of the background state of the Pacific on the susceptibility of the ocean to the initiation of El Nino events.

  11. Characterization of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) foci in Germany and Latvia (1997-2000).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Süss, Jochen; Schrader, Christina; Abel, Ulrich; Bormane, Antra; Duks, Arnis; Kalnina, Vaira

    2002-06-01

    Knowledge concerning the prevalence of the tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) in wild living tick populations is very important for understanding the epidemiology of the disease and for immuno prophylactic strategy. In Germany high and low risk areas of TBE exist. In the years 1997-2000, 533 autochthonous clinical TBE cases were recorded, in the high-risk areas of Bavaria and Baden-Wuerttemberg 140 and 363, and in the low risk areas in Hesse (Odenwald) and Rhineland-Palatinate 22 and 8, respectively. Corresponding to these case reports we have measured the virus prevalence in free living ticks in these four risk areas and compared these findings with the situation in high-risk areas in Latvia. In the years 1997-2000, 2,797 clinical TBE cases were recorded in Latvia. For the studies in Germany, a total of 17,398 Ixodesricinus ticks (14,860 nymphs and 2,538 adults) were collected by flagging and examined for TBEV, in Latvia the corresponding numbers were 525 I. ricinus ticks (350 adults and 175 nymphs) and 281 I. persulcatus ticks (adults only). Information concerning annual and seasonal differences of the TBEV prevalence in natural TBE foci is not available in Germany. This paper is a continuation of the study (Süss et al., 1999), starting in 1997. We investigated every year, in May and September, the virus prevalence in ticks in high risk areas of Bavaria (8 foci) and Baden-Wuerttemberg (5 foci). A total of 15,400 ticks (13,100 nymphs and 2,300 adults) were examined for TBEV. The ticks were tested for the presence of TBEV-RNA using a sensitive, nested-RT-PCR. The virus prevalence in the Bavarian foci of the whole tick population ranged from 0.3 to 2.0% during these four years, in adults between 1.2 and 5.3% and in nymphs between 0.1 and 1.4%. In the high-risk areas of Baden-Wuerttemberg, in the Black Forest, the estimated virus prevalence rates of investigated ticks varied from 0.2 to 3.4%, in adults from 0 to 4.8%, and in nymphs from 0.2 to 3.4%. Using the same

  12. Mean-state SST Response to global warming caused by the ENSO Nonlinearity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohyama, T.; Hartmann, D. L.

    2017-12-01

    The majority of the models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) exhibit El Niño-like trends under global warming. GFDL-ESM2M, however, is an exception that exhibits a La Niña-like response with strengthened trade winds. Our previous studies have shown that this La Niña-like trend could be a physically consistent warming response, and we proposed the Nonlinear ENSO Warming Suppression (NEWS) mechanism to explain this La Niña-like response to global warming. The most important necessary condition of NEWS is the ENSO skewness (El Niños are stronger than La Niñas). Most CMIP5 models do not reproduce the observed ENSO skewness, while GFDL-ESM2M exhibits the realistic ENSO skewness, which suggests that, despite being in the minority, the La Niña-like trend of GFDL-ESM2M could be a plausible equatorial Pacific response to warming. In this study, we introduce another interesting outlier, MIROC5, which reproduces the observed skewness, yet exhibits an El Niño-like response. By decomposing the source of the ENSO nonlinearity into the following three components: "SST anomalies modulate winds", "winds excite oceanic waves", and "oceanic waves modulate the subsurface temperature", we show that the large inter-model spread of the third component appears to explain the most important cause of the poor reproducibility of the ENSO nonlinearity in CMIP5 models. It is concluded that the change in the response of subsurface temperature to oceanic waves is the primary explanation for the different warming response of GFDL-ESM2M and MIROC5. Our analyses suggest that the difference of the warming response are caused by difference in the climatological thermal stratification. This study may shed new light on the fundamental question of why observed ENSO has a strong skewness and on the implications of this skewed ENSO for the mean-state sea surface temperature response to global warming.

  13. United States streamflow probabilities based on forecasted La Nina, winter-spring 2000

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Redmond, K.T.

    1999-01-01

    Although for the last 5 months the TahitiDarwin Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has hovered close to normal, the “equatorial” SOI has remained in the La Niña category and predictions are calling for La Niña conditions this winter. In view of these predictions of continuing La Niña and as a direct extension of previous studies of the relations between El NiñoSouthern Oscil-lation (ENSO) conditions and streamflow in the United States (e.g., Redmond and Koch, 1991; Cayan and Webb, 1992; Redmond and Cayan, 1994; Dettinger et al., 1998; Garen, 1998; Cayan et al., 1999; Dettinger et al., in press), the probabilities that United States streamflows from December 1999 through July 2000 will be in upper and lower thirds (terciles) of the historical records are estimated here. The processes that link ENSO to North American streamflow are discussed in detail in these diagnostics studies. Our justification for generating this forecast is threefold: (1) Cayan et al. (1999) recently have shown that ENSO influences on streamflow variations and extremes are proportionately larger than the corresponding precipitation teleconnections. (2) Redmond and Cayan (1994) and Dettinger et al. (in press) also have shown that the low-frequency evolution of ENSO conditions support long-lead correlations between ENSO and streamflow in many rivers of the conterminous United States. (3) In many rivers, significant (weeks-to-months) delays between precipitation and the release to streams of snowmelt or ground-water discharge can support even longer term forecasts of streamflow than is possible for precipitation. The relatively slow, orderly evolution of El Niño-Southern Oscillation episodes, the accentuated dependence of streamflow upon ENSO, and the long lags between precipitation and flow encourage us to provide the following analysis as a simple prediction of this year’s river flows.

  14. A possible explanation for the divergent projection of ENSO amplitude change under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lin; Li, Tim; Yu, Yongqiang; Behera, Swadhin K.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the greatest climate variability on interannual time scale, yet what controls ENSO amplitude changes under global warming (GW) is uncertain. Here we show that the fundamental factor that controls the divergent projections of ENSO amplitude change within 20 coupled general circulation models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 is the change of climatologic mean Pacific subtropical cell (STC), whose strength determines the meridional structure of ENSO perturbations and thus the anomalous thermocline response to the wind forcing. The change of the thermocline response is a key factor regulating the strength of Bjerknes thermocline and zonal advective feedbacks, which ultimately lead to the divergent changes in ENSO amplitude. Furthermore, by forcing an ocean general circulation mode with the change of zonal mean zonal wind stress estimated by a simple theoretical model, a weakening of the STC in future is obtained. Such a change implies that ENSO variability might strengthen under GW, which could have a profound socio-economic consequence.

  15. ENSO impacts on flood risk at the global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Philip; Dettinger, Michael; Jongman, Brenden; Kummu, Matti; Winsemius, Hessel

    2014-05-01

    We present the impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on society and the economy, via relationships between ENSO and the hydrological cycle. We also discuss ways in which this knowledge can be used in disaster risk management and risk reduction. This contribution provides the most recent results of an ongoing 4-year collaborative research initiative to assess and map the impacts of large scale interannual climate variability on flood hazard and risk at the global scale. We have examined anomalies in flood risk between ENSO phases, whereby flood risk is expressed in terms of indicators such as: annual expected damage; annual expected affected population; annual expected affected Gross Domestic Product (GDP). We show that large anomalies in flood risk occur during El Niño or La Niña years in basins covering large parts of the Earth's surface. These anomalies reach statistical significance river basins covering almost two-thirds of the Earth's surface. Particularly strong anomalies exist in southern Africa, parts of western Africa, Australia, parts of Central Eurasia (especially for El Niño), the western USA (especially La Niña anomalies), and parts of South America. We relate these anomalies to possible causal relationships between ENSO and flood hazard, using both modelled and observed data on flood occurrence and extremity. The implications for flood risk management are many-fold. In those regions where disaster risk is strongly influenced by ENSO, the potential predictably of ENSO could be used to develop probabilistic flood risk projections with lead times up to several seasons. Such data could be used by the insurance industry in managing risk portfolios and by multinational companies for assessing the robustness of their supply chains to potential flood-related interruptions. Seasonal forecasts of ENSO influence of peak flows could also allow for improved flood early warning and regulation by dam operators, which could also reduce overall risks

  16. Influences of the ENSO event on the rainfall of dry Sudan

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    One third of the world's population live in places where medium to high water stress is compounded by pollution, climate change, inefficient management approaches and governance issues. This study detects the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and signals, and the influences of the different ENSO stages in the ...

  17. Role of tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans variability on ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prodhomme, Chloé; Terray, Pascal; Masson, Sebastien; Boschat, Ghyslaine

    2014-05-01

    There are strong evidences of an interaction between tropical Indian, Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Nevertheless, these interactions remain deeply controversial. While some authors claim the tropical Indian and Atlantic oceans only play a passive role with respect to ENSO, others suggest a driving role for these two basins on ENSO. The mecanisms underlying these relations are not fully understood and, in the Indian Ocean, the possible role of both modes of tropical variability (the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the Indian Ocean Basin mode (IOB)) remain unclear. To better quantify and understand how the variability of the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans impact ENSO variability, we performed two sensitivity experiments using the SINTEX-F2 coupled model. For each experiment, we suppressed the variability of SST and the air-sea coupling in either the tropical Indian Ocean or tropical Atlantic Ocean by applying a strong nudging of the SST to the observed SST climatology. In both experiments, the ENSO periodicity increases. In the Atlantic experiment, our understanding of this increased periodicity is drastically limited by the strongly biased mean state in this region. Conversely, in the Indian Ocean experiment, the increase of ENSO periodicity is related to the absence of the IOB following the El Niño peak, which leads to a decrease of westerly winds in the western Pacific during late winter and spring after the peak. These weaker westerlies hinders the transition to a La Niña phase and thus increase the duration and periodicity of the event.

  18. [Changing medical practices and nosocomial infection rates in French maternity units from 1997 to 2000].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincent-Boulétreau, A; Caillat-Vallet, E; Dumas, A M; Ayzac, L; Chapuis, C; Emery, M N; Girard, R; Haond, C; Lafarge-Leboucher, J; Tissot-Guerraz, F; Fabry, J

    2005-04-01

    In this study we describe the changes in medical practices and nosocomial infection rates in obstetrics observed through a surveillance network in the South East of France. The maternity units which belong to this network participated in voluntary surveillance using the network's methodology. The criteria for the diagnosis of nosocomial infections were in accordance with the methods described by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 101240 pregnancies including 18503 caesareans (18.3%) were included in the network from 1997 to 2000. During the study period, nosocomial infection rates following caesarean section and vaginal delivery decreased respectively from 7.8% to 4.3% (p infection control programs in maternity units has been confirmed by the results of this surveillance network. During the study period, both obstetrics-related risk factors for nosocomial infection and observed hospital-acquired infection rates were dramatically reduced, what prove an improvement of quality of care in maternity units.

  19. Identification of symmetric and asymmetric responses in seasonal streamflow globally to ENSO phase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Donghoon; Ward, Philip J.; Block, Paul

    2018-04-01

    The phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has large-ranging effects on streamflow and hydrologic conditions globally. While many studies have evaluated this relationship through correlation analysis between annual streamflow and ENSO indices, an assessment of potential asymmetric relationships between ENSO and streamflow is lacking. Here, we evaluate seasonal variations in streamflow by ENSO phase to identify asymmetric (AR) and symmetric (SR) spatial pattern responses globally and further corroborate with local precipitation and hydrological condition. The AR and SR patterns between seasonal precipitation and streamflow are identified at many locations for the first time. Our results identify strong SR patterns in particular regions including northwestern and southern US, northeastern and southeastern South America, northeastern and southern Africa, southwestern Europe, and central-south Russia. The seasonally lagged anomalous streamflow patterns are also identified and attributed to snowmelt, soil moisture, and/or cumulative hydrological processes across river basins. These findings may be useful in water resources management and natural hazards planning by better characterizing the propensity of flood or drought conditions by ENSO phase.

  20. On the role of ozone feedback in the ENSO amplitude response under global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowack, Peer J; Braesicke, Peter; Luke Abraham, N; Pyle, John A

    2017-04-28

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean is of key importance to global climate and weather. However, state-of-the-art climate models still disagree on the ENSO's response under climate change. The potential role of atmospheric ozone changes in this context has not been explored before. Here we show that differences between typical model representations of ozone can have a first-order impact on ENSO amplitude projections in climate sensitivity simulations. The vertical temperature gradient of the tropical middle-to-upper troposphere adjusts to ozone changes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, modifying the Walker circulation and consequently tropical Pacific surface temperature gradients. We show that neglecting ozone changes thus results in a significant increase in the number of extreme ENSO events in our model. Climate modeling studies of the ENSO often neglect changes in ozone. We therefore highlight the need to understand better the coupling between ozone, the tropospheric circulation, and climate variability.

  1. Reduced ENSO Variability at the LGM Revealed by an Isotope-Enabled Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Jiang; Liu, Zhengyu; Brady, Esther; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Zhang, Jiaxu; Noone, David; Tomas, Robert; Nusbaumer, Jesse; Wong, Tony; Jahn, Alexandra; hide

    2017-01-01

    Studying the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the past can help us better understand its dynamics and improve its future projections. However, both paleoclimate reconstructions and model simulations of ENSO strength at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 ka B.P.) have led to contradicting results. Here we perform model simulations using the recently developed water isotope-enabled Community Earth System Model (iCESM). For the first time, model-simulated oxygen isotopes are directly compared with those from ENSO reconstructions using the individual foraminifera analysis (IFA). We find that the LGM ENSO is most likely weaker comparing with the preindustrial. The iCESM suggests that total variance of the IFA records may only reflect changes in the annual cycle instead of ENSO variability as previously assumed. Furthermore, the interpretation of subsurface IFA records can be substantially complicated by the habitat depth of thermocline-dwelling foraminifera and their vertical migration with a temporally varying thermocline.

  2. On the role of ozone feedback in the ENSO amplitude response under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowack, P. J.; Braesicke, P.; Abraham, N. L.; Pyle, J. A.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific is of key importance to global climate and weather. However, climate models still disagree on the ENSO's response under climate change. Here we show that typical model representations of ozone can have a first-order impact on ENSO amplitude projections in climate sensitivity simulations (i.e. standard abrupt 4xCO2). We mainly explain this effect by the lapse rate adjustment of the tropical troposphere to ozone changes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) under 4xCO2. The ozone-induced lapse rate changes modify the Walker circulation response to the CO2 forcing and consequently tropical Pacific surface temperature gradients. Therefore, not including ozone feedbacks increases the number of extreme ENSO events in our model. In addition, we demonstrate that even if ozone changes in the tropical UTLS are included in the simulations, the neglect of the ozone response in the middle-upper stratosphere still leads to significantly larger ENSO amplitudes (compared to simulations run with a fully interactive atmospheric chemistry scheme). Climate modeling studies of the ENSO often neglect changes in ozone. Our results imply that this could affect the inter-model spread found in ENSO projections and, more generally, surface climate change simulations. We discuss the additional complexity in quantifying such ozone-related effects that arises from the apparent model dependency of chemistry-climate feedbacks and, possibly, their range of surface climate impacts. In conclusion, we highlight the need to understand better the coupling between ozone, the tropospheric circulation, and climate variability. Reference: Nowack PJ, Braesicke P, Abraham NL, and Pyle JA (2017), On the role of ozone feedback in the ENSO amplitude response under global warming, Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 3858-3866, doi:10.1002/2016GL072418.

  3. The ENSO-pandemic influenza connection: coincident or causal?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaman, J. L.; Lipsitch, M.

    2011-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a coupled ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific, which affects weather conditions, including temperatures, precipitation, winds and storm activity, across the planet. ENSO has two extreme phases marked by either warmer (El Niño) or cooler (La Niña) than average sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific. We find that the 4 most recent human influenza pandemics (1918, 1957, 1968, 2009), all of which were first identified in boreal spring or summer, were preceded by La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific. Changes in ENSO have been shown to alter the migration, stopover time, fitness and interspecies mixing of migratory birds, and consequently likely affect their mixing with domestic animals. We hypothesize that La Niña conditions bring divergent influenza subtypes together in some parts of the world and favor the reassortment of influenza through simultaneous multiple infection of individual hosts and the generation of novel pandemic strains. We propose approaches to test this hypothesis using influenza population genetics, virus prevalence in various host species, and avian migration patterns.

  4. Ocean Chlorophyll as a Precursor of ENSO: An Earth System Modeling Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jong-Yeon; Dunne, John P.; Stock, Charles A.

    2018-02-01

    Ocean chlorophyll concentration, a proxy for phytoplankton, is strongly influenced by internal ocean dynamics such as those associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Observations show that ocean chlorophyll responses to ENSO generally lead sea surface temperature (SST) responses in the equatorial Pacific. A long-term global Earth system model simulation incorporating marine biogeochemical processes also exhibits a preceding chlorophyll response. In contrast to simulated SST anomalies, which significantly lag the wind-driven subsurface heat response to ENSO, chlorophyll anomalies respond rapidly. Iron was found to be the key factor connecting the simulated surface chlorophyll anomalies to the subsurface ocean response. Westerly wind bursts decrease central Pacific chlorophyll by reducing iron supply through wind-driven thermocline deepening but increase western Pacific chlorophyll by enhancing the influx of coastal iron from the maritime continent. Our results mechanistically support the potential for chlorophyll-based indices to inform seasonal ENSO forecasts beyond previously identified SST-based indices.

  5. Global land carbon sink response to temperature and precipitation varies with ENSO phase

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fang, Yuanyuan; Michalak, Anna M.; Schwalm, Christopher R.; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; Berry, Joseph A.; Ciais, Philippe; Piao, Shilong; Poulter, Benjamin; Fisher, Joshua B.; Cook, Robert B.; Hayes, Daniel; Huang, Maoyi; Ito, Akihiko; Jain, Atul; Lei, Huimin; Lu, Chaoqun; Mao, Jiafu; Parazoo, Nicholas C.; Peng, Shushi; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Shi, Xiaoying; Tao, Bo; Tian, Hanqin; Wang, Weile; Wei, Yaxing; Yang, Jia

    2017-05-01

    Climate variability associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its consequent impacts on land carbon sink interannual variability have been used as a basis for investigating carbon cycle responses to climate variability more broadly, and to inform the sensitivity of the tropical carbon budget to climate change. Past studies have presented opposing views about whether temperature or precipitation is the primary factor driving the response of the land carbon sink to ENSO. Here, we show that the dominant driver varies with ENSO phase. Whereas tropical temperature explains sink dynamics following El Niño conditions (rTG,P=0.59, p<0.01), the post La Niña sink is driven largely by tropical precipitation (rPG,T=-0.46, p=0.04). This finding points to an ENSO-phase-dependent interplay between water availability and temperature in controlling the carbon uptake response to climate variations in tropical ecosystems. We further find that none of a suite of ten contemporary terrestrial biosphere models captures these ENSO-phase-dependent responses, highlighting a key uncertainty in modeling climate impacts on the future of the global land carbon sink.

  6. ENSO related decadal scale climate variability from the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brijker, J.M.; Jung, S.J.A.; Ganssen, G.M.; Bickert, T.; Kroon, D.

    2006-01-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climatic phenomenon that affects socio-economical welfare in vast areas in the world. A continuous record of Holocene ENSO related climate variability of the Indo-Pacific Warm pool (IPWP) is constructed on the basis of stable oxygen isotopes in shells of

  7. The 1997–1998 El Niño as an unforgettable phenomenon in northern Peru: a qualitative study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayer, Angela M.; Danysh, Heather E.; Garvich, Mijail; Gonzálvez, Guillermo; Checkley, William; Alvarez, María; Gilman, Robert H.

    2014-01-01

    During the 1997–98 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Tumbes, Peru received 16 times the annual average rainfall. We explored how Tumbes residents perceived the ENSO’s impact on basic necessities, transport, healthcare, jobs and migration. Forty-five individuals from five rural communities, including those that were isolated and not isolated from the rest of Tumbes during this ENSO, participated in five focus groups and six individuals constructed nutrition diaries. When asked about events in the past twenty years, participants considered the El Niño as a major negative event. Negative effects that were ameliorated quickly were decreased access to transport and healthcare and increased infectious diseases. Residents needed more time to rebuild housing, recover agriculture, livestock and income stability, and return to eating sufficient animal protein. Although large-scale assistance minimized the ENSO’s effects, residents needed more timely support. Residents’ perspectives on their risks to flooding should be considered to generate effective assistance. PMID:24601921

  8. A metric for quantifying El Niño pattern diversity with implications for ENSO-mean state interaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemmon, Danielle E.; Karnauskas, Kristopher B.

    2018-04-01

    Recent research on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon increasingly reveals the highly complex and diverse nature of ENSO variability. A method of quantifying ENSO spatial pattern uniqueness and diversity is presented, which enables (1) formally distinguishing between unique and "canonical" El Niño events, (2) testing whether historical model simulations aptly capture ENSO diversity by comparing with instrumental observations, (3) projecting future ENSO diversity using future model simulations, (4) understanding the dynamics that give rise to ENSO diversity, and (5) analyzing the associated diversity of ENSO-related atmospheric teleconnection patterns. Here we develop a framework for measuring El Niño spatial SST pattern uniqueness and diversity for a given set of El Niño events using two indices, the El Niño Pattern Uniqueness (EPU) index and El Niño Pattern Diversity (EPD) index, respectively. By applying this framework to instrumental records, we independently confirm a recent regime shift in El Niño pattern diversity with an increase in unique El Niño event sea surface temperature patterns. However, the same regime shift is not observed in historical CMIP5 model simulations; moreover, a comparison between historical and future CMIP5 model scenarios shows no robust change in future ENSO diversity. Finally, we support recent work that asserts a link between the background cooling of the eastern tropical Pacific and changes in ENSO diversity. This robust link between an eastern Pacific cooling mode and ENSO diversity is observed not only in instrumental reconstructions and reanalysis, but also in historical and future CMIP5 model simulations.

  9. A New ENSO Index Derived from Satellite Measurements of Column Ozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziemke, J. R.; Chandra, S.; Oman, L. D.; Bhartia, P. K.

    2010-01-01

    Column Ozone measured in tropical latitudes from Nimbus 7 total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS), Earth Probe TOMS, solar backscatter ultraviolet (SBUV), and Aura ozone monitoring instrument (OMI) are used to derive an El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index. This index, which covers a time period from 1979 to the present, is defined as the Ozone ENSO Index (OEI) and is the first developed from atmospheric trace gas measurements. The OEI is constructed by first averaging monthly mean column ozone over two broad regions in the western and eastern Pacific and then taking their difference. This differencing yields a self-calibrating ENSO index which is independent of individual instrument calibration offsets and drifts in measurements over the long record. The combined Aura OMI and MLS ozone data confirm that zonal variability in total column ozone in the tropics caused by ENSO events lies almost entirely in the troposphere. As a result, the OEI can be derived directly from total column ozone instead of tropospheric column ozone. For clear-sky ozone measurements a +1K change in Nino 3.4 index corresponds to +2.9 Dobson Unit (DU) change in the OEI, while a +1 hPa change in SOI coincides with a -1.7DU change in the OEI. For ozone measurements under all cloud conditions these numbers are +2.4DU and -1.4 DU, respectively. As an ENSO index based upon ozone, it is potentially useful in evaluating climate models predicting long term changes in ozone and other trace gases.

  10. An Ensemble Approach to Understanding the ENSO Response to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevenson, S.; Capotondi, A.; Fasullo, J.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.

    2017-12-01

    The dynamics of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are known to be sensitive to changes in background climate conditions, as well as atmosphere/ocean feedbacks. However, the degree to which shifts in ENSO characteristics can be robustly attributed to external climate forcings remains unknown. Efforts to assess these changes in a multi-model framework are subject to uncertainties due to both differing model physics and internal ENSO variability. New community ensembles created at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory are ideally suited to addressing this problem, providing many realizations of the climate of the 850-2100 period with a combination of both natural and anthropogenic climate forcing factors. Here we analyze the impacts of external forcing on El Nino and La Nina evolution using four sets of simulations: the CESM Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME), which covers the 850-2005 period and provides long-term context for forced responses; the Large Ensemble (CESM-LE), which includes 20th century and 21st century (RCP8.5) projections; the Medium Ensemble (CESM-ME), which is composed of 21st century RCP4.5 projections; and a large ensemble with the GFDL ESM2M, which includes 20th century and RCP8.5 projections. In the CESM, ENSO variance increases slightly over the 20th century in all ensembles, with the effects becoming much larger during the 21st. The slower increase in variance over the 20th century is shown to arise from compensating influences from greenhouse gas (GHG) and anthropogenic aerosol emissions, which give way to GHG-dominated effects by 2100. However, the 21st century variance increase is not robust: CESM and the ESM2M differ drastically in their ENSO projections. The mechanisms for these inter-model differences are discussed, as are the implications for the design of future multi-model ENSO projection experiments.

  11. ENSO-based probabilistic forecasts of March-May U.S. tornado and hail activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lepore, Chiara; Tippett, Michael K.; Allen, John T.

    2017-09-01

    Extended logistic regression is used to predict March-May severe convective storm (SCS) activity based on the preceding December-February (DJF) El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state. The spatially resolved probabilistic forecasts are verified against U.S. tornado counts, hail events, and two environmental indices for severe convection. The cross-validated skill is positive for roughly a quarter of the U.S. Overall, indices are predicted with more skill than are storm reports, and hail events are predicted with more skill than tornado counts. Skill is higher in the cool phase of ENSO (La Niña like) when overall SCS activity is higher. SCS forecasts based on the predicted DJF ENSO state from coupled dynamical models initialized in October of the previous year extend the lead time with only a modest reduction in skill compared to forecasts based on the observed DJF ENSO state.

  12. A retrospective study of presentation, treatment, and outcome of free-ranging raptors in Greece (1997-2000).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komnenou, A Th; Georgopoulou, I; Savvas, I; Dessiris, A

    2005-06-01

    A retrospective study was conducted on free-ranging raptors (n = 402) presented to the Veterinary Medical Teaching Hospital, School of Veterinary Medicine, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece, during a 3-yr period (1997-2000). Representatives of 19 species were admitted from taxonomic orders Accipitriformes (n = 295), Falconiformes (n = 35), and Strigiformes (n = 72). Traumatic injuries (n = 305, 75.8%) were the most common cause of presentation in all raptors. Starvation (n = 38 birds, 9.4%) was the second most common reason, whereas toxicoses (n = 28, 6.9%) were suspected in a limited number of birds. Orphans (n = 31, 7.7%) were presented during breeding season primarily because of inappropriate human intervention. Surgical and medical treatment was given to all birds when necessary. In total, 229 (56.9%) of the presented raptors were successfully rehabilitated and released, 121 (30%) were rehabilitated but nonreleasable, whereas 52 (12.9%) of them died despite treatment. Human intervention (79.2%) plays the most important role in birds of prey morbidity and mortality.

  13. Uncertainty in the ocean-atmosphere feedbacks associated with ENSO in the reanalysis products

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumar, Arun; Hu, Zeng-Zhen [NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

    2012-08-15

    The evolution of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability can be characterized by various ocean-atmosphere feedbacks, for example, the influence of ENSO related sea surface temperature (SST) variability on the low-level wind and surface heat fluxes in the equatorial tropical Pacific, which in turn affects the evolution of the SST. An analysis of these feedbacks requires physically consistent observational data sets. Availability of various reanalysis data sets produced during the last 15 years provides such an opportunity. A consolidated estimate of ocean surface fluxes based on multiple reanalyses also helps understand biases in ENSO predictions and simulations from climate models. In this paper, the intensity and the spatial structure of ocean-atmosphere feedback terms (precipitation, surface wind stress, and ocean surface heat flux) associated with ENSO are evaluated for six different reanalysis products. The analysis provides an estimate for the feedback terms that could be used for model validation studies. The analysis includes the robustness of the estimate across different reanalyses. Results show that one of the ''coupled'' reanalysis among the six investigated is closer to the ensemble mean of the results, suggesting that the coupled data assimilation may have the potential to better capture the overall atmosphere-ocean feedback processes associated with ENSO than the uncoupled ones. (orig.)

  14. Reforecasting the ENSO Events in the Past Fifty-Seven Years (1958-2014)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, B.; Shin, C. S.; Shukla, J.; Marx, L.; Balmaseda, M.; Halder, S.; Dirmeyer, P.; Kinter, J. L.

    2016-12-01

    A set of ensemble seasonal reforecasts for 1958-2014 is conducted using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), initialized with observation-based ocean, atmosphere, land and sea ice reanalyses, including the Eu­ropean Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global ocean reanalysis version 4, the ERA-40 atmospheric reanalysis, the NCEP CFS Reanalysis for atmosphere, land and sea ice, and the NASA Global Land Data Assimilation System reanalysis version 2.0 for land. The purpose is to examine a long and continuous seasonal reforecast dataset from a modern seasonal forecast system to be used by the research community. In comparison with other current reforecasts, this dataset allows us to evaluate the degree to which El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events can be predicted, using a larger sample of events. Furthermore, we can directly compare the predictability of the ENSO events in 1960s-70s with the more widely studied ENSO events occurring since the 1980s to examine the state-of-the-art seasonal forecast system's capability at different phases of global climate change and multidecadal variability. A major concern is whether the seasonal reforecasts before 1979 have useful skill when there were fewer ocean observations. Our preliminary examination of the reforecasts shows that, although the reforecasts have lower skill in predicting the SST anomalies in the North Pacific and North Atlantic before 1979, the prediction skill of the ENSO onset and development for 1958-1978 is comparable to that for 1979-2014. The skill of the earlier predictions declines faster in the ENSO decaying phase because the reforecasts initialized after the summer season persistently predict lingering wind and SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific during the decaying phase of several major ENSO events in the 1960s-70s. Since the 1980s, the reforecasts initialized in fall overestimate the peak SST

  15. Tailoring wheat management to ENSO phases for increased wheat production in Paraguay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melissa A. Ramirez-Rodrigues

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Reported regional wheat yields in Paraguay vary from 1 to 3 t/ha from year to year, but appear not to be correlated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO phases. Historical weather data from two locations in representative wheat-growing regions of Paraguay, Encarnación-Itapúa and Ciudad del Este-Alto Paraná combined with crop modeling, were analyzed to optimize nitrogen (N fertilizer application rates according to the ENSO phase of a growing season. The ENSO phase of a growing season was defined based on the average of the sea surface temperature (SST anomalies in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific region for the period June–October using the El Niño region 3.0 index (Niño 3.0. Simulated average yields in Alto Paraná were higher in the drier and cooler La Niña wheat-growing seasons (average of 3.5 t/ha compared to the other phases (average of 3.2 t/ha and in Itapúa, in Neutral seasons (average of 3.8 t/ha compared to the other phases (average of 3.7 t/ha. Accordingly, optimal N fertilizer applications ranged between 20 and 60 kg N/ha between phases depending on the sowing date, soil type and initial amount of soil water content. Applying an ENSO or General Circulation Model (GCM-based forecast for ENSO-season-type specific N fertilizer applications resulted in benefits of >100 US$/ha when compared with current farmers’ practice of consistently low N fertilizer applications in Paraguay. When N management based on forecasts was compared with optimized N application without forecast, the benefits of the forecast was only up to 8 US$/ha. The ENSO-persistence-based forecast showed higher values than the GCM-based forecasts with two lead-times but lower skill. Using climate information can significantly increase current wheat yields and gross margins in Paraguay by tailoring N fertilizer applications to the Niño 3.0-defined ENSO phases, which can be forecasted with moderate skill at the beginning of the growing season.

  16. ENSO-Type Signals Recorded in the Late Cretaceous Laminated Sediments of Songliao Basin, Northeast China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, E.; Wang, C.; Hinnov, L. A.; Wu, H.

    2014-12-01

    The quasi-periodic, ca. 2-7 year El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon globally influences the inter-annual variability of temperature and precipitation. Global warming may increase the frequency of extreme ENSO events. Although the Cretaceous plate tectonic configuration was different from today, the sedimentary record suggests that ENSO-type oscillations had existed at the time of Cretaceous greenhouse conditions. Cored Cretaceous lacustrine sediments from the Songliao Basin in Northeast China (SK-1 cores from the International Continental Drilling Program) potentially offer a partially varved record of Cretaceous paleoclimate. Fourteen polished thin sections from the depth interval 1096.12-1096.53 m with an age of 84.4 Ma were analyzed by optical and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). ImageJ software was applied to extract gray scale curves from optical images at pixel resolution. We tracked minimum values of the gray scale curves to estimate the thickness of each lamina. Five sedimentary structures were recognized: flaser bedding, wavy bedding, lenticular bedding, horizontal bedding, and massive layers. The mean layer thicknesses with different sedimentary structures range from 116 to 162mm, very close to the mean sedimentation rate estimated for this sampled interval, 135mm/year, indicating that the layers bounded by pure clay lamina with the minimum gray values are varves. SEM images indicate that a varve is composed, in succession, of one lamina rich in coarse silt, one lamina rich in fine silt, one clay-rich lamina with some silt, and one clay-rich lamina. This suggests that a Cretaceous year featured four distinct depositional seasons, two of which were rainy and the others were lacking precipitation. Spectral analysis of extended intervals of the tuned gray scale curve indicates the presence of inter-annual periodicities of 2.2-2.7 yr, 3.5-6.1 year, and 10.1-14.5 year consistent with those of modern ENSO cycles and solar cycles, as well as

  17. Tropical cyclone prediction skills - MJO and ENSO dependence in S2S data sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, C. Y.; Camargo, S.; Vitart, F.; Sobel, A. H.; Tippett, M.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are two important climate controls on tropical cyclone (TC) activity. The seasonal prediction skill of dynamical models is determined in large part by their accurate representations of the ENSO-TC relationship. Regarding intraseasonal TC variability, observations suggest MJO to be the primary control. Given the ongoing effort to develop dynamical seasonal-to-subseasonal (S2S) TC predictions, it is important to examine whether the global models, running on S2S timescales, are able to reproduce these known ENSO-TC and MJO-TC relationships, and how this ability affects forecasting skill. Results from the S2S project (from F. Vitart) suggest that global models have skill in predicting MJO phase with up to two weeks of lead time (four weeks for ECMWF). Meanwhile, our results show that, qualitatively speaking, the MJO-TC relationship in storm genesis is reasonably captured, with some models (e.g., ECMWF, BoM, NCEP, MetFr) performing better than the others. However, we also find that model skill in predicting basin-wide genesis and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) are mainly due to the models' ability to capture the climatological seasonality. Removing the seasonality significantly reduces the models' skill; even the best model (ECMWF) in the most reliable basin (western north Pacific and Atlantic) has very little skill (close to 0.1 in Brier skill score for genesis and close to 0 in rank probability skill score for ACE). This brings up the question: do any factors contribute to intraseasonal TC prediction skill other than seasonality? Is the low skill, after removing the seasonality, due to poor MJO and ENSO simulations, or to poor representation of other ENSO-TC or MJO-TC relationships, such as ENSO's impact on the storm tracks? We will quantitatively discuss the dependence of the TC prediction skill on ENSO and MJO, focusing on Western North Pacific and Atlantic, where we have sufficient

  18. The influence of ENSO on an oceanic eddy pair in the South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Xiaoqing; Dong, Changming; Qi, Yiquan

    2017-03-01

    An eddy pair off the Vietnam coast is one of the most important features of the summertime South China Sea circulation. Its variability is of interest due to its profound impact on regional climate, ecosystems, biological processes, and fisheries. This study examines the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a basin-scale climatic mode, on the interannual variability of this regional eddy pair using satellite observational data and historical hydrographic measurements. Over the last three decades, the eddy pair strengthened in 1994 and 2002, and weakened in 2006, 2007, and 2008. It was absent in 1988, 1995, 1998, and 2010, coinciding with strong El Nino-to-La Nina transitions. Composite analyses showed that the strong transition events of ENSO led to radical changes in the summer monsoon, through the forcing of a unique sea surface temperature anomaly structure over the tropical Indo-Pacific basin. With weaker zonal wind, a more northward wind direction, and the disappearance of a pair of positive and negative wind stress curls, the eastward current jet turns northward along the Vietnam coast and the eddy pair disappears.

  19. Changes in ENSO amplitude under climate warming and cooling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yingying; Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai

    2018-05-01

    The response of ENSO amplitude to climate warming and cooling is investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), in which the warming and cooling scenarios are designed by adding heat fluxes of equal amplitude but opposite sign onto the ocean surface, respectively. Results show that the warming induces an increase of the ENSO amplitude but the cooling gives rise to a decrease of the ENSO amplitude, and these changes are robust in statistics. A mixed layer heat budget analysis finds that the increasing (decreasing) SST tendency under climate warming (cooling) is mainly due to an enhancement (weakening) of dynamical feedback processes over the equatorial Pacific, including zonal advective (ZA) feedback, meridional advective (MA) feedback, thermocline (TH) feedback, and Ekman (EK) feedback. As the climate warms, a wind anomaly of the same magnitude across the equatorial Pacific can induce a stronger zonal current change in the east (i.e., a stronger ZA feedback), which in turn produces a greater weakening of upwelling (i.e., a stronger EK feedback) and thus a larger thermocline change (i.e., a stronger TH feedback). In response to the climate warming, in addition, the MA feedback is also strengthened due to an enhancement of the meridional SST gradient around the equator resulting from a weakening of the subtropical cells (STCs). It should be noted that the weakened STCs itself has a negative contribution to the change of the MA feedback which, however, appears to be secondary. And vice versa for the cooling case. Bjerknes linear stability (BJ) index is also evaluated for the linear stability of ENSO, with remarkably larger (smaller) BJ index found for the warming (cooling) case.

  20. ENSO Related Inter-Annual Lightning Variability from the Full TRMM LIS Lightning Climatology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Austin; Cecil, Daniel

    2018-01-01

    The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) contributes to inter-annual variability of lightning production more than any other atmospheric oscillation. This study further investigated how ENSO phase affects lightning production in the tropics and subtropics using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS). Lightning data were averaged into mean annual warm, cold, and neutral 'years' for analysis of the different phases and compared to model reanalysis data. An examination of the regional sensitivities and preliminary analysis of three locations was conducted using model reanalysis data to determine the leading convective mechanisms in these areas and how they might respond to the ENSO phases

  1. Biennial-Aligned Lunisolar-Forcing of ENSO: Implications for Simplified Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pukite, P. R.

    2017-12-01

    By solving Laplace's tidal equations along the equatorial Pacific thermocline, assuming a delayed-differential effective gravity forcing due to a combined lunar+solar (lunisolar) stimulus, we are able to precisely match ENSO periodic variations over wide intervals. The underlying pattern is difficult to decode by conventional means such as spectral analysis, which is why it has remained hidden for so long, despite the excellent agreement in the time-domain. What occurs is that a non-linear seasonal modulation with monthly and fortnightly lunar impulses along with a biennially-aligned "see-saw" is enough to cause a physical aliasing and thus multiple folding in the frequency spectrum. So, instead of a conventional spectral tidal decomposition, we opted for a time-domain cross-validating approach to calibrate the amplitude and phasing of the lunisolar cycles. As the lunar forcing consists of three fundamental periods (draconic, anomalistic, synodic), we used the measured Earth's length-of-day (LOD) decomposed and resolved at a monthly time-scale [1] to align the amplitude and phase precisely. Even slight variations from the known values of the long-period tides will degrade the fit, so a high-resolution calibration is possible. Moreover, a narrow training segment from 1880-1920 using NINO34/SOI data is adequate to extrapolate the cycles of the past 100 years (see attached figure). To further understand the biennial impact of a yearly differential-delay, we were able to also decompose using difference equations the historical sea-level-height readings at Sydney harbor to clearly expose the ENSO behavior. Finally, the ENSO lunisolar model was validated by back-extrapolating to Unified ENSO coral proxy (UEP) records dating to 1650. The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) behavior of equatorial stratospheric winds derives following a similar pattern to ENSO via the tidal equations, but with an emphasis on draconic forcing. This improvement in ENSO and QBO understanding has

  2. Comparison of Forced ENSO-Like Hydrological Expressions in Simulations of the Preindustrial and Mid-Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Sophie C.; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Kelley, Maxwell

    2014-01-01

    Using the water isotope- and vapor source distribution (VSD) tracer-enabled Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE-R, we examine changing El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like expressions in the hydrological cycle in a suite of model experiments. We apply strong surface temperature anomalies associated with composite observed El Nino and La Nina events as surface boundary conditions to preindustrial and mid-Holocene model experiments in order to investigate ENSO-like expressions in the hydrological cycle under varying boundary conditions. We find distinct simulated hydrological anomalies associated with El Nino-like ("ENSOWARM") and La Nina-like ("ENSOCOOL") conditions, and the region-specific VSD tracers show hydrological differences across the Pacific basin between El Nino-like and La Nina-like events. The application of ENSOCOOL forcings does not produce climatological anomalies that represent the equal but opposite impacts of the ENSOWARM experiment, as the isotopic anomalies associated with ENSOWARM conditions are generally stronger than with ENSOCOOL and the spatial patterns of change distinct. Also, when the same ENSO-like surface temperature anomalies are imposed on the mid-Holocene, the hydrological response is muted, relative to the preindustrial. Mid-Holocene changes in moisture sources to the analyzed regions across the Pacific reveal potentially complex relationships between ENSO-like conditions and boundary conditions. Given the complex impacts of ENSO-like conditions on various aspects of the hydrological cycle, we suggest that proxy record insights into paleo-ENSO variability are most likely to be robust when synthesized from a network of many spatially diverse archives, which can account for the potential nonstationarity of ENSO teleconnections under different boundary conditions.

  3. How well do climate models simulate atmospheric teleconnctions over the North Pacific and East Asia associated with ENSO?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sunyong; Son, Hye-Young; Kug, Jong-Seong

    2017-02-01

    During the El Niño and La Niña mature phase, atmospheric teleconnections over the North Pacific and East Asia vary considerably on sub-seasonal time scales, and are strongly phase-locked to the sub-seasonal evolution. In this study, we investigate how well climate models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulate the sub-seasonal evolution of teleconnections over the North Pacific and East Asia associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the observations, there is a prominent anticyclone anomaly over the Kuroshio extension region (i.e. Kuroshio anticyclone), which significantly affects East Asian climate in the early winter (November-December) of El Niño years. However, in January, the Kuroshio anticyclone suddenly disappears, and a cyclonic flow dominates over the North Pacific. It is found here that the CMIP5 models simulate the overall extratropical teleconnection patterns, but they fail to reproduce some of these sub-seasonally-varying features in atmospheric circulation. For example, the models tend to simulate a weaker Kuroshio anticyclone in the early winter during El Niño phases, and fail to capture the abrupt decay of the Kuroshio anticyclone in the late winter. We demonstrate here that these systematic errors in ENSO teleconnection can be explained by systematic errors in tropical precipitation associated with ENSO. That is, negative precipitation anomalies over the western North Pacific (WNP) are too weak in the models compared to that in the observations, and their amplitude tends to be strengthened from December to the following January, while they are weakened in the observations. In addition, analyses on the inter-model diversity strongly support that relative magnitudes of WNP and central Pacific precipitation anomalies are critical for determining sub-seasonal evolution of ENSO teleconnections over the North Pacific and East Asia.

  4. The nonstationary impact of local temperature changes and ENSO on extreme precipitation at the global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Qiaohong; Miao, Chiyuan; Qiao, Yuanyuan; Duan, Qingyun

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and local temperature are important drivers of extreme precipitation. Understanding the impact of ENSO and temperature on the risk of extreme precipitation over global land will provide a foundation for risk assessment and climate-adaptive design of infrastructure in a changing climate. In this study, nonstationary generalized extreme value distributions were used to model extreme precipitation over global land for the period 1979-2015, with ENSO indicator and temperature as covariates. Risk factors were estimated to quantify the contrast between the influence of different ENSO phases and temperature. The results show that extreme precipitation is dominated by ENSO over 22% of global land and by temperature over 26% of global land. With a warming climate, the risk of high-intensity daily extreme precipitation increases at high latitudes but decreases in tropical regions. For ENSO, large parts of North America, southern South America, and southeastern and northeastern China are shown to suffer greater risk in El Niño years, with more than double the chance of intense extreme precipitation in El Niño years compared with La Niña years. Moreover, regions with more intense precipitation are more sensitive to ENSO. Global climate models were used to investigate the changing relationship between extreme precipitation and the covariates. The risk of extreme, high-intensity precipitation increases across high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere but decreases in middle and lower latitudes under a warming climate scenario, and will likely trigger increases in severe flooding and droughts across the globe. However, there is some uncertainties associated with the influence of ENSO on predictions of future extreme precipitation, with the spatial extent and risk varying among the different models.

  5. A synthesis of ENSO effects on drylands in Australia, North America and South America

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Holmgren, M.; Stapp, P.; Dickman, C.; Gracia, C.; Graham, S.

    2005-01-01

    Fundamentally, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climatic and oceanographic phenomenon, but it has profound effects on terrestrial ecosystems. Although the ecological effects of ENSO are becoming increasingly known from a wide range of terrestrial ecosystems (Holmgren et al., 2001), their

  6. Reduced herbivory during simulated ENSO rainy events increases native herbaceous plants in semiarid Chile

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Manrique, R.; Gutierrez, J.R.; Holmgren, M.; Squeo, F.A.

    2007-01-01

    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events have profound consequences for the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems. Since increased climate variability is expected to favour the invasive success of exotic species, we conducted a field experiment to study the effects that simulated rainy ENSO events in

  7. DEVELOPING AN IMAGE PROCESSING APPLICATION THAT SUPPORTS NEW FEATURES OF JPEG2000 STANDARD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evgin GÖÇERİ

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, developing technologies in multimedia brought the importance of image processing and compression. Images that are reduced in size using lossless and lossy compression techniques without degrading the quality of the image to an unacceptable level take up much less space in memory. This enables them to be sent and received over the Internet or mobile devices in much shorter time. The wavelet-based image compression standard JPEG2000 has been created by the Joint Photographic Experts Group (JPEG committee to superseding the former JPEG standard. Works on various additions to this standard are still under development. In this study, an Application has been developed in Visual C# 2005 which implies important image processing techniques such as edge detection and noise reduction. The important feature of this Application is to support JPEG2000 standard as well as supporting other image types, and the implementation does not only apply to two-dimensional images, but also to multi-dimensional images. Modern software development platforms that support image processing have also been compared and several features of the developed software have been identified.

  8. Cyclic Markov chains with an application to an intermediate ENSO model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. A. Pasmanter

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available We develop the theory of cyclic Markov chains and apply it to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO predictability problem. At the core of Markov chain modelling is a partition of the state space such that the transition rates between different state space cells can be computed and used most efficiently. We apply a partition technique, which divides the state space into multidimensional cells containing an equal number of data points. This partition leads to mathematical properties of the transition matrices which can be exploited further such as to establish connections with the dynamical theory of unstable periodic orbits. We introduce the concept of most and least predictable states. The data basis of our analysis consists of a multicentury-long data set obtained from an intermediate coupled atmosphere-ocean model of the tropical Pacific. This cyclostationary Markov chain approach captures the spring barrier in ENSO predictability and gives insight also into the dependence of ENSO predictability on the climatic state.

  9. Linear dynamical modes as new variables for data-driven ENSO forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavrilov, Andrey; Seleznev, Aleksei; Mukhin, Dmitry; Loskutov, Evgeny; Feigin, Alexander; Kurths, Juergen

    2018-05-01

    A new data-driven model for analysis and prediction of spatially distributed time series is proposed. The model is based on a linear dynamical mode (LDM) decomposition of the observed data which is derived from a recently developed nonlinear dimensionality reduction approach. The key point of this approach is its ability to take into account simple dynamical properties of the observed system by means of revealing the system's dominant time scales. The LDMs are used as new variables for empirical construction of a nonlinear stochastic evolution operator. The method is applied to the sea surface temperature anomaly field in the tropical belt where the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main mode of variability. The advantage of LDMs versus traditionally used empirical orthogonal function decomposition is demonstrated for this data. Specifically, it is shown that the new model has a competitive ENSO forecast skill in comparison with the other existing ENSO models.

  10. A Review of ENSO Influence on the North Atlantic. A Non-Stationary Signal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The atmospheric seasonal cycle of the North Atlantic region is dominated by meridional movements of the circulation systems: from the tropics, where the West African Monsoon and extreme tropical weather events take place, to the extratropics, where the circulation is dominated by seasonal changes in the jetstream and extratropical cyclones. Climate variability over the North Atlantic is controlled by various mechanisms. Atmospheric internal variability plays a crucial role in the mid-latitudes. However, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO is still the main source of predictability in this region situated far away from the Pacific. Although the ENSO influence over tropical and extra-tropical areas is related to different physical mechanisms, in both regions this teleconnection seems to be non-stationary in time and modulated by multidecadal changes of the mean flow. Nowadays, long observational records (greater than 100 years and modeling projects (e.g., CMIP permit detecting non-stationarities in the influence of ENSO over the Atlantic basin, and further analyzing its potential mechanisms. The present article reviews the ENSO influence over the Atlantic region, paying special attention to the stability of this teleconnection over time and the possible modulators. Evidence is given that the ENSO–Atlantic teleconnection is weak over the North Atlantic. In this regard, the multidecadal ocean variability seems to modulate the presence of teleconnections, which can lead to important impacts of ENSO and to open windows of opportunity for seasonal predictability.

  11. Improved predictability of droughts over southern Africa using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index and ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manatsa, Desmond; Mushore, Terrence; Lenouo, Andre

    2017-01-01

    The provision of timely and reliable climate information on which to base management decisions remains a critical component in drought planning for southern Africa. In this observational study, we have not only proposed a forecasting scheme which caters for timeliness and reliability but improved relevance of the climate information by using a novel drought index called the standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), instead of the traditional precipitation only based index, the standardised precipitation index (SPI). The SPEI which includes temperature and other climatic factors in its construction has a more robust connection to ENSO than the SPI. Consequently, the developed ENSO-SPEI prediction scheme can provide quantitative information about the spatial extent and severity of predicted drought conditions in a way that reflects more closely the level of risk in the global warming context of the sub region. However, it is established that the ENSO significant regional impact is restricted only to the period December-March, implying a revisit to the traditional ENSO-based forecast scheme which essentially divides the rainfall season into the two periods, October to December and January to March. Although the prediction of ENSO events has increased with the refinement of numerical models, this work has demonstrated that the prediction of drought impacts related to ENSO is also a reality based only on observations. A large temporal lag is observed between the development of ENSO phenomena (typically in May of the previous year) and the identification of regional SPEI defined drought conditions. It has been shown that using the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum's (SARCOF) traditional 3-month averaged Nino 3.4 SST index (June to August) as a predictor does not have an added advantage over using only the May SST index values. In this regard, the extended lead time and improved skill demonstrated in this study could immensely benefit

  12. ENSO surface shortwave radiation forcing over the tropical Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. G. Pavlakis

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available We have studied the spatial and temporal variation of the downward shortwave radiation (DSR at the surface of the Earth during ENSO events for a 21-year period over the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean (40° S–40° N, 90° E–75° W. The fluxes were computed using a deterministic model for atmospheric radiation transfer, along with satellite data from the ISCCP-D2 database, reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR for the key atmospheric and surface input parameters, and aerosol parameters from GADS (acronyms explained in main text. A clear anti-correlation was found between the downward shortwave radiation anomaly (DSR-A time-series, in the region 7° S–5° N 160° E–160° W located west of the Niño-3.4 region, and the Niño-3.4 index time-series. In this region where the highest in absolute value DSR anomalies are observed, the mean DSR anomaly values range from −45 Wm−2 during El Niño episodes to +40 Wm−2 during La Niña events. Within the Niño-3.4 region no significant DSR anomalies are observed during the cold ENSO phase in contrast to the warm ENSO phase. A high correlation was also found over the western Pacific (10° S–5° N, 120–140° E, where the mean DSR anomaly values range from +20 Wm−2 to −20 Wm−2 during El Niño and La Niña episodes, respectively. There is also convincing evidence that the time series of the mean downward shortwave radiation anomaly in the off-equatorial western Pacific region 7–15° N 150–170° E, precedes the Niño-3.4 index time-series by about 7 months and the pattern of this anomaly is indicative of ENSO operating through the mechanism of the western Pacific oscillator. Thus, the downward shortwave radiation anomaly is a complementary index to the SST anomaly for the study of ENSO events and can be used to assess whether or not El Niño or La Niña conditions prevail.

  13. A synthesis of ENSO effects on drylands in Australia, North America and South America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Holmgren

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Fundamentally, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO is a climatic and oceanographic phenomenon, but it has profound effects on terrestrial ecosystems. Although the ecological effects of ENSO are becoming increasingly known from a wide range of terrestrial ecosystems (Holmgren et al., 2001, their impacts have been more intensively studied in arid and semiarid systems. In this brief communication, we summarize the main conclusions of a recent symposium on the effects of ENSO in these ecosystems, which was convened as part of the First Alexander von Humboldt International Conference on the El Niño Phenomenon and its Global Impact, in Guayaquil, Ecuador, from 16–20 May 2005. Participants in the symposium shared results and perspectives from research conducted in North and South America and Australia, regions where the ecological effects of ENSO have been studied in depth. Although the reports covered a wide array of organisms and ecological systems (Fig. 1, a recurring theme was the strong increase in rainfall associated with ENSO events in dry ecosystems (during the El Niño phase of the oscillation in the Americas and the La Niña phase in Australia. Because inter-annual variability in precipitation is such a strong determinant of productivity in arid and semiarid ecosystems, increased ENSO rainfall is crucial for plant recruitment, productivity and diversity in these ecosystems. Several long-term studies show that this pulse in primary productivity causes a subsequent increase in herbivores, followed by an increase in carnivores, with consequences for changes in ecosystem structure and functioning that can be quite complex.

  14. The Seasonality of Fecal Coliform Bacteria Pollution and its Influence on Closures of Shellfish Harvesting Areas in Mississippi Sound

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul B. Tchounwou

    2005-08-01

    Full Text Available Runoff from agricultural lands and farm animal feedlots is one of the major sources of fecal coliforms in surface waters, and fecal coliform (FC bacteria concentrations tend to vary with season because of seasonal variations in climatic factors. However, El Niño -Southern Oscillation (ENSO events may affect the extent and patterns of seasonality in FC levels in coastal waters. Water quality monitoring data for shellfish management collected during El Niño (1990, 1992, 1997, and La Niña (1999, 2000 years were analyzed to evaluate the extent to which these events influenced Pearl River stage, and bacterial levels, water temperature, and salinity in the western part of Mississippi Sound. Models to predict FC levels in relation to various environmental factors were also developed. In 1990, 1992 and 1997, FC geometric mean counts peaked in late winter (January/February reaching 120 MPN (February 1990, 165 MPN (January 1992, and 86 MPN (January 1997, and then decreased considerably during spring and summer (1.2 – 19 MPN. Thereafter, FC abundance increased slightly in fall and early winter (1.9 – 24 MPN. Fecal coliform abundance during the 2000 La Niña year was much lower (1.0 – 10.3 MPN than in 1992 (1.2 – 165 MPN, and showed no seasonal pattern from January to August, perhaps due to the relative scarcity of rainfall in 2000. In 1995 (ENSO neutral year, peak geometric mean FC count (46 MPN was lower than during El Niño years and occurred in early spring (March. The seasonal and between year variations in FC levels determined the number of days during which the conditionally approved shellfish growing area was opened for harvesting shellfish. For example, from January to April 1997, the area was not opened for shellfish harvesting, whereas in 2000, the number of days during which the area was opened ranged from 6 - 27 (January to April to 24 - 26 (October to December

  15. NREL photovoltaic program FY 1997 annual report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McConnell, R.D.; Hansen, A.; Smoller, S.

    1998-06-01

    This report summarizes the in-house and subcontracted research and development (R and D) activities under the NREL PV Program from October 1, 1996, through September 30, 1997 (FY 1997). The NREL PV Program is part of the US Department of Energy`s (DOE`s) National Photovoltaics Program, as described in the DOE National Photovoltaics Program Plan for 1996--2000. The FY 1997 budget authority for carrying out the NREL PV Program was $39.3 million in operating funds and $0.4 million in capital equipment funds. Subcontract activities represent a major part of the NREL PV Program, with $21.8 million (55% of PV funds) going to some 84 subcontractors. Cost sharing by industry added almost $8.8 million to the subcontract R and D activities with industry.

  16. ENSO Modulations due to Interannual Variability of Freshwater Forcing and Ocean Biology-induced Heating in the Tropical Pacific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Rong-Hua; Gao, Chuan; Kang, Xianbiao; Zhi, Hai; Wang, Zhanggui; Feng, Licheng

    2015-12-18

    Recent studies have identified clear climate feedbacks associated with interannual variations in freshwater forcing (FWF) and ocean biology-induced heating (OBH) in the tropical Pacific. The interrelationships among the related anomaly fields are analyzed using hybrid coupled model (HCM) simulations to illustrate their combined roles in modulating the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The HCM-based supporting experiments are performed to isolate the related feedbacks, with interannually varying FWF and OBH being represented individually or collectively, which allows their effects to be examined in a clear way. It is demonstrated that the interannual freshwater forcing enhances ENSO variability and slightly prolongs the simulated ENSO period, while the interannual OBH reduces ENSO variability and slightly shortens the ENSO period, with their feedback effects tending to counteract each other.

  17. Response of ENSO amplitude to global warming in CESM large ensemble: uncertainty due to internal variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Xiao-Tong; Hui, Chang; Yeh, Sang-Wook

    2018-06-01

    El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of variability in the coupled ocean-atmospheric system. Future projections of ENSO change under global warming are highly uncertain among models. In this study, the effect of internal variability on ENSO amplitude change in future climate projections is investigated based on a 40-member ensemble from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) project. A large uncertainty is identified among ensemble members due to internal variability. The inter-member diversity is associated with a zonal dipole pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) change in the mean along the equator, which is similar to the second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) in the unforced control simulation. The uncertainty in CESM-LE is comparable in magnitude to that among models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), suggesting the contribution of internal variability to the intermodel uncertainty in ENSO amplitude change. However, the causations between changes in ENSO amplitude and the mean state are distinct between CESM-LE and CMIP5 ensemble. The CESM-LE results indicate that a large ensemble of 15 members is needed to separate the relative contributions to ENSO amplitude change over the twenty-first century between forced response and internal variability.

  18. ENSO Effect on East Asian Tropical Cyclone Landfall via Changes in Tracks and Genesis in a Statistical Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yonekura, Emmi; Hall, Timothy M.

    2014-01-01

    Improvements on a statistical tropical cyclone (TC) track model in the western North Pacific Ocean are described. The goal of the model is to study the effect of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on East Asian TC landfall. The model is based on the International Best-Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) database of TC observations for 1945-2007 and employs local regression of TC formation rates and track increments on the Nino-3.4 index and seasonally varying climate parameters. The main improvements are the inclusion of ENSO dependence in the track propagation and accounting for seasonality in both genesis and tracks. A comparison of simulations of the 1945-2007 period with observations concludes that the model updates improve the skill of this model in simulating TCs. Changes in TC genesis and tracks are analyzed separately and cumulatively in simulations of stationary extreme ENSO states. ENSO effects on regional (100-km scale) landfall are attributed to changes in genesis and tracks. The effect of ENSO on genesis is predominantly a shift in genesis location from the southeast in El Nino years to the northwest in La Nina years, resulting in higher landfall rates for the East Asian coast during La Nina. The effect of ENSO on track propagation varies seasonally and spatially. In the peak activity season (July-October), there are significant changes in mean tracks with ENSO. Landfall-rate changes from genesis- and track-ENSO effects in the Philippines cancel out, while coastal segments of Vietnam, China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan show enhanced La Nina-year increases.

  19. Outcomes of very low birth weight infants in a newborn tertiary center in Turkey, 1997-2000.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atasay, Begüm; Günlemez, Ayla; Unal, Sevim; Arsan, Saadet

    2003-01-01

    Our purpose was to determine mortality and morbidity rates and selected outcome variables for infants weighing less than 1500 g, who were admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit of our hospital from 1997 to 2000. The ultimate goal of the study was to define a model for developing a regional database. Information on all very low birth weight (VLBW) admissions to a tertiary level neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) in Ankara between January 1997 and December 2000 was prospectively collected by three neonatologists using a standard manual of operation and definitions. The data consisted of patient information including sociodemographic characteristics; antenatal history; mode of delivery; APGAR scores; need for resuscitation; admission illness severity (Clinical Risk Index for Babies-CRIB) and therapeutic intensity (Neonatal Therapeutic Intensity Scoring System-NTISS); selected NICU parameters and procedures such as respiratory support, surfactant therapy, and postnatal corticosteroid therapy; and selected patient outcomes such as intraventricular hemorrhage, septicemia, necrotizing enterecolitis, retinopathy of prematurity, and chronic lung disease. The number of VLBW admissions to the NICU was 133, with 51 (28.6%) referrals from other maternity centers. The mean birth weight and gestational age of the infants were 1175 +/- 252 g and 30.3 +/- 2.9 weeks, respectively. One hundred and seventeen of 133 cases (88.7%) received at least one antenatal care visit. The median CRIB and NTISS scores were 4.5 and 31, respectively. Antenatal steroids had been given to 74 (55.6%) infants. Surfactant treatment and respiratory support were given to 33 (24.8%) and 73 (54.8%) infants, respectively. Among selected outcomes, chronic lung disease (CLD), threshold retinopathy of prematurity (ROP), severe intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH > or = grade III), nosocomial infection and necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) were encountered in 14 (12.6%), 9 (8.1%), 3 (2.2%), 34 (25.5%) and 35 (26

  20. ENSO-Based Index Insurance: Approach and Peru Flood Risk Management Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalil, A. F.; Kwon, H.; Lall, U.; Miranda, M. J.; Skees, J. R.

    2006-12-01

    Index insurance has recently been advocated as a useful risk transfer tool for disaster management situations where rapid fiscal relief is desirable, and where estimating insured losses may be difficult, time consuming, or subject to manipulation and falsification. For climate related hazards, a rainfall or temperature index may be proposed. However, rainfall may be highly spatially variable relative to the gauge network, and in many locations data are inadequate to develop an index due to short time-series and the spatial dispersion of stations. In such cases, it may be helpful to consider a climate proxy index as a regional rainfall index. This is particularly useful if a long record is available for the climate index through an independent source and it is well correlated with the regional rainfall hazard. Here, ENSO related climate indices are explored for use as a proxy to extreme rainfall in one of the departments of Peru -- Piura. The ENSO index insurance product may be purchased by banks or microfinance institutions (MFIs) to aid agricultural damage relief in Peru. Crop losses in the region are highly correlated with floods, but are difficult to assess directly. Beyond agriculture, many other sectors suffer as well. Basic infrastructure is destroyed during the most severe events. This disrupts trade for many micro-enterprises. The reliability and quality of the local rainfall data is variable. Averaging the financial risk across the region is desirable. Some issues with the implementation of the proxy ENSO index are identified and discussed. Specifically, we explore (a) the reliability of the index at different levels of probability of exceedance of maximum seasonal rainfall; (b) the potential for clustering of payoffs; (c) the potential that the index could be predicted with some lead time prior to the flood season; and (d) evidence for climate change or non-stationarity in the flood exceedance probability from the long ENSO record. Finally, prospects for

  1. Influence of ENSO on coastal flood hazard and exposure at the global-scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muis, S.; Haigh, I. D.; Guimarães Nobre, G.; Aerts, J.; Ward, P.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant signal of interannual climate variability. The unusually warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific drives interannual variability in both mean and extreme sea levels, which in turn may influence the probabilities and impacts of coastal flooding. We assess the influence of ENSO on coastal flood hazard and exposure using daily timeseries from the Global Time and Surge Reanalysis (GTSR) dataset (Muis et al., 2016). As the GTSR timeseries do not include steric effects (i.e. density differences), we improve the GTSR timeseries by adding steric sea levels. Evaluation against observed sea levels shows that the including steric sea levels leads to a much better representation of the seasonal and interannual variability. We show that sea level anomalies occur during ENSO years with higher sea levels during La Niña in the South-Atlantic, Indian Ocean and the West Pacific, whereas sea levels are lower in the east Pacific. The pattern is generally inversed for El Niño. We also find an effect of ENSO in the number of people exposed to coastal flooding. Although the effect is minor at the global-scale, it may be important for flood risk management to consider at the national or sub national levels. Previous studies at the global-scale have used tide gauge observation to assess the influence of ENSO on extreme sea levels. The advantage of our approach over observations is that GTSR provides a consistent dataset with a full global coverage for the period 1979-2014. This allows us to assess ENSO's influence on sea level extremes anywhere in the world. Furthermore, it enables us to also calculate the impacts of extreme sea levels in terms of coastal flooding and exposed population. ReferencesMuis et al (2016) A global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme sea levels. Nature Communications.7:11969. doi:10.1038/ncomms11969.

  2. Relative Contributions of Mean-State Shifts and ENSO-Driven Variability to Precipitation Changes in a Warming Climate*

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bonfils, Céline J. W.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Phillips, Thomas J.; Marvel, Kate; Leung, L. Ruby; Doutriaux, Charles; Capotondi, Antonietta

    2015-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of regional hydroclimate variability through far-reaching teleconnections. Most climate models project an increase in the frequency of extreme El Niño events under increased greenhouse-gas (GHG) forcing. However, it is unclear how other aspects of ENSO and ENSO-driven teleconnections will evolve in the future. Here, we identify in 20th century sea-surface temperature (SST) observations a time-invariant ENSO-like (ENSOL) pattern that is largely uncontaminated by GHG forcing. We use this pattern to investigate the future precipitation (P) response to ENSO-like SST anomalies. Models that better capture observed ENSOL characteristics produce P teleconnection patterns that are in better accord with observations and more stationary in the 21st century. We decompose the future P response to ENSOL into the sum of three terms: (1) the change in P mean state, (2) the historical P response to ENSOL, and (3) a future enhancement in the P response to ENSOL. In many regions, this last term can aggravate the P extremes associated with ENSO variability. This simple decomposition allows us to identify regions likely to experience ENSOL-induced P changes that are without precedent in the current climate.

  3. Climate Assessment for 1997.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Gerald D.; Halpert, Michael S.

    1998-05-01

    The global climate during 1997 was affected by both extremes of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with weak Pacific cold episode conditions prevailing during January and February, and one of the strongest Pacific warm episodes (El Niño) in the historical record prevailing during the remainder of the year. This warm episode contributed to major regional rainfall and temperature anomalies over large portions of the Tropics and extratropics, which were generally consistent with those observed during past warm episodes. In many regions, these anomalies were opposite to those observed during 1996 and early 1997 in association with Pacific cold episode conditions.Some of the most dramatic El Niño impacts during 1997 were observed in the Tropics, where anomalous convection was evident across the entire Pacific and throughout most major monsoon regions of the world. Tropical regions most affected by excessive El Niño-related rainfall during the year included 1) the eastern half of the tropical Pacific, where extremely heavy rainfall and strong convective activity covered the region from April through December; 2) equatorial eastern Africa, where excessive rainfall during OctoberDecember led to widespread flooding and massive property damage; 3) Chile, where a highly amplified and extended South Pacific jet stream brought increased storminess and above-normal rainfall during the winter and spring; 4) southeastern South America, where these same storms produced above-normal rainfall during JuneDecember; and 5) Ecuador and northern Peru, which began receiving excessive rainfall totals in November and December as deep tropical convection spread eastward across the extreme eastern Pacific.In contrast, El Niño-related rainfall deficits during 1997 included 1) Indonesia, where significantly below-normal rainfall from June through December resulted in extreme drought and contributed to uncontrolled wildfires; 2) New Guinea, where drought contributed to large-scale food

  4. Future changes in rainfall associated with ENSO, IOD and changes in the mean state over Eastern Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endris, Hussen Seid; Lennard, Christopher; Hewitson, Bruce; Dosio, Alessandro; Nikulin, Grigory; Artan, Guleid A.

    2018-05-01

    This study examines the projected changes in the characteristics of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in terms of mean state, intensity and frequency, and associated rainfall anomalies over eastern Africa. Two regional climate models driven by the same four global climate models (GCMs) and the corresponding GCM simulations are used to investigate projected changes in teleconnection patterns and East African rainfall. The period 1976-2005 is taken as the reference for present climate and the far-future climate (2070-2099) under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) is analyzed for projected change. Analyses of projections based on GCMs indicate an El Niño-like (positive IOD-like) warming pattern over the tropical Pacific (Indian) Ocean. However, large uncertainties remain in the projected future changes in ENSO/IOD frequency and intensity with some GCMs show increase of ENSO/IOD frequency and intensity, and others a decrease or no/small change. Projected changes in mean rainfall over eastern Africa based on the GCM and RCM data indicate a decrease in rainfall over most parts of the region during JJAS and MAM seasons, and an increase in rainfall over equatorial and southern part of the region during OND, with the greatest changes in equatorial region. During ENSO and IOD years, important changes in the strength of the teleconnections are found. During JJAS, when ENSO is an important driver of rainfall variability over the region, both GCM and RCM projections show an enhanced La Niña-related rainfall anomaly compared to the present period. Although the long rains (MAM) have little association with ENSO in the reference period, both GCMs and RCMs project stronger ENSO teleconnections in the future. On the other hand, during the short rains (OND), a dipole future change in rainfall teleconnection associated with ENSO and IOD is found, with a stronger ENSO/IOD related rainfall anomaly over the eastern part of the domain

  5. The multidecadal variations of the interannual relationship between the East Asian summer monsoon and ENSO in a coupled model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Bo; Huang, Gang; Hu, Kaiming; Wu, Renguang; Gong, Hainan; Wang, Pengfei; Zhao, Guijie

    2017-10-01

    This study investigates the multidecadal variations of the interannual relationship between the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in 1000-year simulation of a coupled climate model. The interannual relationship between ENSO and EASM has experienced pronounced changes throughout the 1000-year simulation. During the periods with significant ENSO-EASM relationship, the ENSO-related circulation anomalies show a Pacific-Japan (PJ)-like pattern with significant wave-activity flux propagating from the tropics to the north in lower troposphere and from the mid-latitudes to the south in upper troposphere. The resultant ENSO-related precipitation anomalies are more (less) than normal over the East Asia (western North Pacific) in the decaying summers of El Niño events. In contrast, the circulation and precipitation anomalies are weak over East Asia-western North Pacific during the periods with weak ENSO-EASM relationship. Based on the energy conversion analysis, the related anomalies achieve barotropic and baroclinic energy from the mean flow during the periods with strong ENSO-EASM relationship. On the contrary, during the low-correlation periods, the energy conversion is too weak to form the link between the tropics and mid-latitudes. The main reason for the multidecadal variations of ENSO-EASM relationship is the amplitude discrepancy of SST anomalies over the Indo-western Pacific Ocean which, in turn, leads to the intensity difference of the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (WPAC) and related climate anomalies.

  6. Marine lake ecosystem dynamics illustrate ENSO variation in the tropical western Pacific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Laura E; Dawson, Michael N; Bell, Lori J; Colin, Patrick L

    2006-03-22

    Understanding El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its biological consequences is hindered by a lack of high-resolution, long-term data from the tropical western Pacific. We describe a preliminary, 6 year dataset that shows tightly coupled ENSO-related bio-physical dynamics in a seawater lake in Palau, Micronesia. The lake is more strongly stratified during La Niña than El Niño conditions, temperature anomalies in the lake co-vary strongly with the Niño 3.4 climate index, and the abundance of the dominant member of the pelagic community, an endemic subspecies of zooxanthellate jellyfish, is temperature associated. These results have broad relevance because the lake: (i) illustrates an ENSO signal that is partly obscured in surrounding semi-enclosed lagoon waters and, therefore, (ii) may provide a model system for studying the effects of climate change on community evolution and cnidarian-zooxanthellae symbioses, which (iii) should be traceable throughout the Holocene because the lake harbours a high quality sediment record; the sediment record should (iv) provide a sensitive and regionally unique record of Holocene climate relevant to predicting ENSO responses to future global climate change and, finally, (v) seawater lake ecosystems elsewhere in the Pacific may hold similar potential for past, present, and predictive measurements of climate variation and ecosystem response.

  7. EDF - Electricite de France. Results 1997. 1997: The enterprise prepares for competition; EDF - Electricite de France. Resultats 1997. 1997: L'entreprise se prepare a la concurrence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-07-01

    In 1997 the energy production of the French Electricity Company EDF (Electricite de France) reached the value of 457.7 billion kWh, of which 82% is nuclear, 14% hydraulic and 4% classical thermal power. The management of maintenance annual intervention allowed and availability of the nuclear sector of 82.6%. The safety level was also maintained at a high value. The quality of the supplied electricity has been improved continuously: the annual average interruption duration for low voltage supply has been reduced from 1.35 h in 1996 to 1.06 h in 1997. Sale volume in France (369.9 billion kWh) is 0.7% lower than in 1996. EDF remains the first electricity exporter in Europe. The EDF has strengthened in 1997 its international development. FF 4.2 billions have been invested in Europe, Latin America and Asia. A social policy has been developed in favor of employee, particularly, young people acting toward enterprise's development, better management and working time reduction. In the frame of its relation with the state the EDF Company has signed a new contract for the period 1997-2000 which will allow reaching its ambition: becoming a public service of reference in Europe and its promotion as leader in industrial services, in the electric sector of France and on the international market. The results of this first year has confirmed the course adopted. The report contains the following seven chapters: 1. Relations with the state and the evolution of the institutional frame; 2. The financial results and administration; 3. Technical results; 4. Development in France; 5. International development; 6. Social and human resources; 7. Environment.

  8. Tree Carbohydrate Dynamics Across a Rainfall Gradient in Panama During the 2016 ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickman, L. T.; Xu, C.; Behar, H.; McDowell, N.

    2017-12-01

    Non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) provide a measure of the carbon supply available to support respiration, growth, and defense. Support for a role of carbon starvation - or depletion of NSC stores - in drought induced tree mortality is varied without consensus for the tropics. The 2016 ENSO drought provided a unique opportunity to capture drought impacts on tropical forest carbohydrate dynamics. To quantify these impacts, we collected monthly NSC samples across a rainfall gradient in Panama for the duration of the ENSO. We observed high variability in foliar NSC among species within sites. Foliage contained very little starch, indicating that total NSC dynamics are driven by soluble sugars. Foliar NSC depletion did not progress with drought duration as predicted, but showed little variation over course of the ENSO. Foliar NSC did, however, increase with rainfall, suggesting NSC depletion may occur with longer-term drought. These results suggest that, while short-term droughts like the 2016 ENSO may not have a significant impact on carbon dynamics, we may observe greater impacts as drought progresses over longer timescales. These results will be used to evaluate whether the current implementation of carbon starvation in climate models are capturing observed trends in tropical forest carbon allocation and mortality, and to tune model parameters for improved predictive capability.

  9. Effect of AMOC collapse on ENSO in a high resolution general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williamson, Mark S.; Collins, Mat; Drijfhout, Sybren S.; Kahana, Ron; Mecking, Jennifer V.; Lenton, Timothy M.

    2018-04-01

    We look at changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a high-resolution eddy-permitting climate model experiment in which the Atlantic Meridional Circulation (AMOC) is switched off using freshwater hosing. The ENSO mode is shifted eastward and its period becomes longer and more regular when the AMOC is off. The eastward shift can be attributed to an anomalous eastern Ekman transport in the mean equatorial Pacific ocean state. Convergence of this transport deepens the thermocline in the eastern tropical Pacific and increases the temperature anomaly relaxation time, causing increased ENSO period. The anomalous Ekman transport is caused by a surface northerly wind anomaly in response to the meridional sea surface temperature dipole that results from switching the AMOC off. In contrast to a previous study with an earlier version of the model, which showed an increase in ENSO amplitude in an AMOC off experiment, here the amplitude remains the same as in the AMOC on control state. We attribute this difference to variations in the response of decreased stochastic forcing in the different models, which competes with the reduced damping of temperature anomalies. In the new high-resolution model, these effects approximately cancel resulting in no change in amplitude.

  10. Geohydrology, water quality, and simulation of ground-water flow in the vicinity of a former waste-oil refinery near Westville, Indiana, 1997-2000

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duwelius, Richard F.; Yeskis, Douglas J.; Wilson, John T.; Robinson, Bret A.

    2002-01-01

    Geohydrologic and water-quality data collected during 1997 through 2000 in the vicinity of a former waste-oil refinery near Westville, Indiana, define a plume of 1,4-dioxane in ground water that extends to the southwest approximately 0.8 miles from the refinery site. Concentrations of 1,4-dioxane in the plume ranged from 3 to 31,000 micrograms per liter. Ground water containing 1,4-dioxane is discharged to Crumpacker Ditch, approximately one-half mile west of the refinery site. Concentrations of 1,4-dioxane detected in surface water ranged from 8 to 140 micrograms per liter; 1,4-dioxane also is transported in ground water beneath the ditch.

  11. Imavere Sawmill is Stora Ensos Jewel in the Region / Seppo Vainio ; interv. Toivo Tänavsuu

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Vainio, Seppo

    2004-01-01

    Skandinaavia metsanduskontserni Stora Enso Timberi tegevuse juht Baltikumis vastab küsimustele, mis puudutavad Eesti suurima metsatööstuse Sylvesteri ostu 2003. aastal, Baltikumi üksuste osa Stora Enso tegevuses, Imavere saeveski valimist aasta välisinvestoriks. Vt. samas: Imavere saeveski eile ja täna. Tabel: "Välisinvestor 2004" nominendid

  12. Balances de glaciares y clima en Bolivia y Perú: impacto de los eventos ENSO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1995-01-01

    Full Text Available BILANS GLACIAIRES ET CLIMAT EN BOLIVIE ET AU PÉROU : IMPACT DES ÉVÉNEMENTS ENSO. À partir d’une reconstruction faite pour le glacier de Zongo (Cordillère Royale, Bolivie avec des données hydrologiques et de l’application du modèle linéaire (Lliboutry sur les données des glaciers Yanamarey et Uruashraju (Cordillère Blanche, Pérou, on a pu disposer de séries de 15-20 ans de bilans de masse. En analysant parallèlement les données recueillies aux stations météorologiques proches, on met en évidence le rôle des températures dans la détermination de ces bilans. La variabilité des températures dépend de façon étroite des phénomènes ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation : pendant ces épisodes, les températures maximales et minimales augmentent sensiblement, ce qui affecte le terme ablation du bilan de masse. On vérifie sur ces séries de 20 ans que toutes les années ENSO sont associées à des bilans négatifs. Pendant la plupart des épisodes ENSO se produit au sud du Pérou et en Bolivie une réduction des précipitations, ce qui contribue à accentuer l’effet ENSO sur les bilans. Ces événements ont une grande influence sur l’évolution actuelle des glaciers andins, caractérisée par un recul rapide. La reconstrucción del balance hidrológico a partir de datos hidrométricos del glaciar de Zongo (Cordillera Real de Bolivia, así como la aplicación del modelo lineal (Lliboutry sobre los datos de balance de los glaciares Yanamarey y Uruashraju (Cordillera Blanca del Perú, ofrecen la posibilidad de disponer de series de 15-20 años de balance de masa. Analizando paralelamente los datos recogidos en estaciones meteorológicas cercanas, se puede evidenciar el rol de las temperaturas en la determinación de estos balances. La variabilidad de las temperaturas depende de una manera estrecha de los eventos ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation: durante estos eventos, las temperaturas máximas y mínimas aumentan

  13. EDF - Electricite de France. Results 1997. 1997: The enterprise prepares for competition; EDF - Electricite de France. Resultats 1997. 1997: L'entreprise se prepare a la concurrence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-07-01

    In 1997 the energy production of the French Electricity Company EDF (Electricite de France) reached the value of 457.7 billion kWh, of which 82% is nuclear, 14% hydraulic and 4% classical thermal power. The management of maintenance annual intervention allowed and availability of the nuclear sector of 82.6%. The safety level was also maintained at a high value. The quality of the supplied electricity has been improved continuously: the annual average interruption duration for low voltage supply has been reduced from 1.35 h in 1996 to 1.06 h in 1997. Sale volume in France (369.9 billion kWh) is 0.7% lower than in 1996. EDF remains the first electricity exporter in Europe. The EDF has strengthened in 1997 its international development. FF 4.2 billions have been invested in Europe, Latin America and Asia. A social policy has been developed in favor of employee, particularly, young people acting toward enterprise's development, better management and working time reduction. In the frame of its relation with the state the EDF Company has signed a new contract for the period 1997-2000 which will allow reaching its ambition: becoming a public service of reference in Europe and its promotion as leader in industrial services, in the electric sector of France and on the international market. The results of this first year has confirmed the course adopted. The report contains the following seven chapters: 1. Relations with the state and the evolution of the institutional frame; 2. The financial results and administration; 3. Technical results; 4. Development in France; 5. International development; 6. Social and human resources; 7. Environment.

  14. Assessing probabilistic predictions of ENSO phase and intensity from the North American Multimodel Ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tippett, Michael K.; Ranganathan, Meghana; L'Heureux, Michelle; Barnston, Anthony G.; DelSole, Timothy

    2017-05-01

    Here we examine the skill of three, five, and seven-category monthly ENSO probability forecasts (1982-2015) from single and multi-model ensemble integrations of the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) project. Three-category forecasts are typical and provide probabilities for the ENSO phase (El Niño, La Niña or neutral). Additional forecast categories indicate the likelihood of ENSO conditions being weak, moderate or strong. The level of skill observed for differing numbers of forecast categories can help to determine the appropriate degree of forecast precision. However, the dependence of the skill score itself on the number of forecast categories must be taken into account. For reliable forecasts with same quality, the ranked probability skill score (RPSS) is fairly insensitive to the number of categories, while the logarithmic skill score (LSS) is an information measure and increases as categories are added. The ignorance skill score decreases to zero as forecast categories are added, regardless of skill level. For all models, forecast formats and skill scores, the northern spring predictability barrier explains much of the dependence of skill on target month and forecast lead. RPSS values for monthly ENSO forecasts show little dependence on the number of categories. However, the LSS of multimodel ensemble forecasts with five and seven categories show statistically significant advantages over the three-category forecasts for the targets and leads that are least affected by the spring predictability barrier. These findings indicate that current prediction systems are capable of providing more detailed probabilistic forecasts of ENSO phase and amplitude than are typically provided.

  15. The complex influence of ENSO on droughts in Ecuador

    KAUST Repository

    Vicente-Serrano, S. M.

    2016-03-26

    In this study, we analyzed the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the spatio-temporal variability of droughts in Ecuador for a 48-year period (1965–2012). Droughts were quantified from 22 high-quality and homogenized time series of precipitation and air temperature by means of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. In addition, the propagation of two different ENSO indices (El Niño 3.4 and El Niño 1 + 2 indices) and other atmospheric circulation processes (e.g., vertical velocity) on different time-scales of drought severity were investigated. The results showed a very complex influence of ENSO on drought behavior across Ecuador, with two regional patterns in the evolution of droughts: (1) the Andean chain with no changes in drought severity, and (2) the Western plains with less severe and frequent droughts. We also detected that drought variability in the Andes mountains is explained by the El Niño 3.4 index [sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central Pacific], whereas the Western plains are much more driven by El Niño 1 + 2 index (SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific). Moreover, it was also observed that El Niño and La Niña phases enhance droughts in the Andes and Western plains regions, respectively. The results of this work could be crucial for predicting and monitoring drought variability and intensity in Ecuador. © 2016 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

  16. Marine lake ecosystem dynamics illustrate ENSO variation in the tropical western Pacific

    OpenAIRE

    Martin, Laura E; Dawson, Michael N; Bell, Lori J; Colin, Patrick L

    2005-01-01

    Understanding El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its biological consequences is hindered by a lack of high-resolution, long-term data from the tropical western Pacific. We describe a preliminary, 6 year dataset that shows tightly coupled ENSO-related bio-physical dynamics in a seawater lake in Palau, Micronesia. The lake is more strongly stratified during La Niña than El Niño conditions, temperature anomalies in the lake co-vary strongly with the Niño 3.4 climate index, and the abundance...

  17. CALL in the Year 2000: A Look Back from 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapelle, Carol A.

    2016-01-01

    This commentary offers a brief reflection on the state of CALL in 1997, when "Language Learning & Technology" was launched with my paper entitled "CALL in the year 2000: Still in search of research paradigms?" The point of my 1997 paper was to suggest the potential value of research on second language learning for the study…

  18. Atmosphere-Ocean Variations in the Indo-Pacific Sector during ENSO Episodes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, Ngar-Cheung; Nath, Mary Jo

    2003-01-01

    The influences of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on air-sea interaction in the Indian-western Pacific (IWP) Oceans have been investigated using a general circulation model. Observed monthly sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the deep tropical eastern/central Pacific (DTEP) have been inserted in the lower boundary of this model through the 1950-99 period. At all maritime grid points outside of DTEP, the model atmosphere has been coupled with an oceanic mixed layer model with variable depth. Altogether 16 independent model runs have been conducted.Composite analysis of selected ENSO episodes illustrates that the prescribed SST anomalies in DTEP affect the surface atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns in IWP through displacements of the near-equatorial Walker circulation and generation of Rossby wave modes in the subtropics. Such atmospheric responses modulate the surface fluxes as well as the oceanic mixed layer depth, and thereby establish a well-defined SST anomaly pattern in the IWP sector several months after the peak in ENSO forcing in DTEP. In most parts of the IWP region, the net SST tendency induced by atmospheric changes has the same polarity as the local composite SST anomaly, thus indicating that the atmospheric forcing acts to reinforce the underlying SST signal.By analyzing the output from a suite of auxiliary experiments, it is demonstrated that the SST perturbations in IWP (which are primarily generated by ENSO-related atmospheric changes) can, in turn, exert notable influences on the atmospheric conditions over that region. This feedback mechanism also plays an important role in the eastward migration of the subtropical anticyclones over the western Pacific in both hemispheres.

  19. Environmental and safety aspects. The best of 'powder handling and processing' 1989 - 1997. 'Bulk solids handling' 1992 - 1997 (H/2000)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Woehlbier, R.H. (ed.)

    2000-07-01

    The book contains articles published either during 1992-1997 in ''bulk solids handling'' or during 1989-1997 in ''powder handling and processing''. Main topics are aspects of safety and environmental protection in bulk solids handling: dusts, hazardous powders, prevention and mitigation of dust explosions, powdered coal handling, dedusting, filters, electrostatic precipitation, materials recovery, occupational safety.(uke)

  20. EDF - Electricite de France. Results 1997. 1997: The enterprise prepares for competition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-01-01

    In 1997 the energy production of the French Electricity Company EDF (Electricite de France) reached the value of 457.7 billion kWh, of which 82% is nuclear, 14% hydraulic and 4% classical thermal power. The management of maintenance annual intervention allowed and availability of the nuclear sector of 82.6%. The safety level was also maintained at a high value. The quality of the supplied electricity has been improved continuously: the annual average interruption duration for low voltage supply has been reduced from 1.35 h in 1996 to 1.06 h in 1997. Sale volume in France (369.9 billion kWh) is 0.7% lower than in 1996. EDF remains the first electricity exporter in Europe. The EDF has strengthened in 1997 its international development. FF 4.2 billions have been invested in Europe, Latin America and Asia. A social policy has been developed in favor of employee, particularly, young people acting toward enterprise's development, better management and working time reduction. In the frame of its relation with the state the EDF Company has signed a new contract for the period 1997-2000 which will allow reaching its ambition: becoming a public service of reference in Europe and its promotion as leader in industrial services, in the electric sector of France and on the international market. The results of this first year has confirmed the course adopted. The report contains the following seven chapters: 1. Relations with the state and the evolution of the institutional frame; 2. The financial results and administration; 3. Technical results; 4. Development in France; 5. International development; 6. Social and human resources; 7. Environment

  1. Coral based-ENSO/IOD related climate variability in Indonesia: a review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yudawati Cahyarini, Sri; Henrizan, Marfasran

    2018-02-01

    Indonesia is located in the prominent site to study climate variability as it lies between Pacific and Indian Ocean. It has consequences to the regional climate in Indonesia that its climate variability is influenced by the climate events in the Pacific oceans (e.g. ENSO) and in the Indian ocean (e.g. IOD), and monsoon as well as Indonesian Throughflow (ITF). Northwestern monsoon causes rainfall in the region of Indonesia, while reversely Southwestern monsoon causes dry season around Indonesia. The ENSO warm phase called El Nino causes several droughts in Indonesian region, reversely the La Nina causes flooding in some regions in Indonesia. However, the impact of ENSO in Indonesia is different from one place to the others. Having better understanding on the climate phenomenon and its impact to the region requires long time series climate data. Paleoclimate study which provides climate data back into hundreds to thousands even to million years overcome this requirement. Coral Sr/Ca can provide information on past sea surface temperature (SST) and paired Sr/Ca and δ18O may be used to reconstruct variations in the precipitation balance (salinity) at monthly to annual interannual resolution. Several climate studies based on coral geochemical records in Indonesia show that coral Sr/Ca and δ18O from Indonesian records SST and salinity respectively. Coral Sr/Ca from inshore Seribu islands complex shows more air temperature rather than SST. Modern coral from Timor shows the impact of ENSO and IOD to the saliniy and SST is different at Timor sea. This result should be taken into account when interpreting Paleoclimate records over Indonesia. Timor coral also shows more pronounced low frequency SST variability compared to the SST reanalysis (model). The longer data of low frequency variability will improve the understanding of warming trend in this climatically important region.

  2. Impacts of ENSO on air-sea oxygen exchange: Observations and mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eddebbar, Yassir A.; Long, Matthew C.; Resplandy, Laure; Rödenbeck, Christian; Rodgers, Keith B.; Manizza, Manfredi; Keeling, Ralph F.

    2017-05-01

    Models and observations of atmospheric potential oxygen (APO ≃ O2 + 1.1 * CO2) are used to investigate the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on air-sea O2 exchange. An atmospheric transport inversion of APO data from the Scripps flask network shows significant interannual variability in tropical APO fluxes that is positively correlated with the Niño3.4 index, indicating anomalous ocean outgassing of APO during El Niño. Hindcast simulations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace model show similar APO sensitivity to ENSO, differing from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model, which shows an opposite APO response. In all models, O2 accounts for most APO flux variations. Detailed analysis in CESM shows that the O2 response is driven primarily by ENSO modulation of the source and rate of equatorial upwelling, which moderates the intensity of O2 uptake due to vertical transport of low-O2 waters. These upwelling changes dominate over counteracting effects of biological productivity and thermally driven O2 exchange. During El Niño, shallower and weaker upwelling leads to anomalous O2 outgassing, whereas deeper and intensified upwelling during La Niña drives enhanced O2 uptake. This response is strongly localized along the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, leading to an equatorial zonal dipole in atmospheric anomalies of APO. This dipole is further intensified by ENSO-related changes in winds, reconciling apparently conflicting APO observations in the tropical Pacific. These findings suggest a substantial and complex response of the oceanic O2 cycle to climate variability that is significantly (>50%) underestimated in magnitude by ocean models.

  3. Impacts of a Pinatubo-size volcanic eruption on ENSO

    KAUST Repository

    Predybaylo, Evgeniya

    2017-01-16

    Observations and model simulations of the climate responses to strong explosive low-latitude volcanic eruptions suggest a significant increase in the likelihood of El Niño during the eruption and posteruption years, though model results have been inconclusive and have varied in magnitude and even sign. In this study, we test how this spread of responses depends on the initial phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the eruption year and on the eruption\\'s seasonal timing. We employ the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory CM2.1 global coupled general circulation model to investigate the impact of the Pinatubo 1991 eruption, assuming that in 1991 ENSO would otherwise be in central or eastern Pacific El Niño, La Niña, or neutral phases. We obtain statistically significant El Niño responses in a year after the eruption for all cases except La Niña, which shows no response in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The eruption has a weaker impact on eastern Pacific El Niños than on central Pacific El Niños. We find that the ocean dynamical thermostat and (to a lesser extent) wind changes due to land-ocean temperature gradients are the main feedbacks affecting El Niño development after the eruption. The El Niño responses to eruptions occurring in summer are more pronounced than for winter and spring eruptions. That the climate response depends on eruption season and initial ENSO phase may help to reconcile apparent inconsistencies among previous studies.

  4. Radiotracer technology as applied to industry. Final report of a co-ordinated research project 1997-2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-12-01

    The Co-ordinated Research Project (CRP) on Radiotracer Technology for Engineering Unit Operation Studies and Unit Process Optimization was carried out by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) from December 1997 until December 2000. The project developed and validated procedures and protocols for investigation of major industrial processes, including fluidized beds, sugar crystallizers, trickle bed reactors, cement rotary kilns, flotation cells, grinding mills, incinerators, wastewater treatment units and interwell communications in oil fields. This publication is the output of the above mentioned CRP. It provides the principles and state of the art of radiotracer methodology and technology as applied to industry and environment. It is expected to provide wider interest for further development of skills and confidence prior to carrying out field work. It facilitates transfer of technology from developed to developing countries and from nuclear research institutions to industrial end users. The publication could be a suitable guide for radiotracer applications in almost all types of process investigations. The case studies described in this publication deal with typical problems in industry and environment common to all countries. It is intended for radiotracer groups as well as for end engineers and managers from chemical and petrochemical industries, mineral ore and raw material processing, wastewater treatment plants, and other industrial sectors

  5. The complex influence of ENSO on droughts in Ecuador

    KAUST Repository

    Vicente-Serrano, S. M.; Aguilar, E.; Martí nez, R.; Martí n-Herná ndez, N.; Azorin-Molina, C.; Sanchez-Lorenzo, A.; El Kenawy, Ahmed M.; Tomá s-Burguera, M.; Moran-Tejeda, E.; Ló pez-Moreno, J. I.; Revuelto, J.; Beguerí a, S.; Nieto, J. J.; Drumond, A.; Gimeno, L.; Nieto, R.

    2016-01-01

    of precipitation and air temperature by means of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. In addition, the propagation of two different ENSO indices (El Niño 3.4 and El Niño 1 + 2 indices) and other atmospheric circulation processes (e.g., vertical

  6. Interannual variability of summertime aerosol optical depth over East Asia during 2000–2011: a potential influence from El Niño Southern Oscillation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Yikun; Liu, Junfeng; Tao, Shu

    2013-01-01

    Aerosols degrade air quality, perturb atmospheric radiation, and impact regional and global climate. Due to the rapid increase in anthropogenic emissions, aerosol loading over East Asia (EA) is markedly higher than other industrialized regions, which motivates a need to characterize the evolution of aerosols and understand the associated drivers. Based on the MISR satellite data during 2000–2011, a wave-like interannual variation of summertime aerosol optical depth (SAOD) is observed over the highly populated North China Plain (NCP) in East Asia. Specifically, the peak-to-trough ratio of SAOD ranges from 1.4 to 1.6, with a period of 3–4 years. This variation pattern differs apparently from what has been seen in EA emissions, indicating a periodic change in regional climate pattern during the past decade. Investigations of meteorological fields over the region reveal that the high SAOD is generally associated with the enhanced Philippine Sea Anticyclone Anomaly (PSAA) which weakens southeasterlies over northeastern EA and depresses air ventilation. Alternatively, higher temperature and lower relative humidity are found to be coincident with reduced SAOD. The behavior of PSAA has been found previously to be modulated by the El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO), therefore ENSO could disturb the EA SAOD as well. Rather than changing coherently with the ENSO activity, the SAOD peaks over NCP are found to be accompanied by the rapid transition of El Niño warm to cold phases developed four months ahead. An index measuring the development of ENSO during January–April is able to capture the interannual variability of SAOD over NCP during 2000–2011. This finding indicates a need to integrate the large-scale periodic climate variability in the design of regional air quality policy. (letter)

  7. Evaluation of the effects of ENSO teleconnection on climatic parameters fluctuations in Khorasan Province I.R. of Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ehteramian, Kourosh; Shahabfar, Alireza; Gharaei, Sohrab M.; Jamali, Javad B.

    2004-01-01

    The long term forecasting and monitoring of climatological parameters depends on identification of all effective factors, which are affects on this phenomena. One of these parameters is the weather signal. These signals are determinable and specific pattern and occurs in the distinguished regions in the world, but it's effects are world wide. One of the famous signals is ENSO phenomenon, which have two phases. In this paper with using annual and seasonal correlations between southern oscillation index (SOI) and precipitation and temperature data the effective amounts of ENSO phases on the differences of these factors was studied in the all regions of Khorasan province in Iran, then for more comprehensive study the classification maps in relation of ENSO and variability of precipitation and temperature were drown. It was concluded that the mentioned parameters in the whole of the province especially in central and north strip have shown significant action to ENSO, in other word the average of precipitation and temperature correlation indices are negative annually and seasonally, it means when SOI amounts are increased the precipitation and temperature in Khorasan will be decreased. With regard to increasing the above weather parameters in all regions of Khorasan at the time of ENSO negative phases (El Nino condition) variations of precipitation and temperature could be related to the changes of the pattern of occurrence this phenomenon (ENSO) due to climatic change around the world. (Author)

  8. Sensitivity of Water Scarcity Events to ENSO-Driven Climate Variability at the Global Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Eisner, S.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

    2015-01-01

    Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and, in some regions, climate change. Although it is well-known that El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects patterns of precipitation and drought at global and regional scales, little attention has yet been paid to the impacts of climate variability on water scarcity conditions, despite its importance for adaptation planning. Therefore, we present the first global-scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity to ENSO, the most dominant signal of climate variability. We show that over the time period 1961-2010, both water availability and water scarcity conditions are significantly correlated with ENSO-driven climate variability over a large proportion of the global land area (> 28.1 %); an area inhabited by more than 31.4% of the global population. We also found, however, that climate variability alone is often not enough to trigger the actual incidence of water scarcity events. The sensitivity of a region to water scarcity events, expressed in terms of land area or population exposed, is determined by both hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Currently, the population actually impacted by water scarcity events consists of 39.6% (CTA: consumption-to-availability ratio) and 41.1% (WCI: water crowding index) of the global population, whilst only 11.4% (CTA) and 15.9% (WCI) of the global population is at the same time living in areas sensitive to ENSO-driven climate variability. These results are contrasted, however, by differences in growth rates found under changing socioeconomic conditions, which are relatively high in regions exposed to water scarcity events. Given the correlations found between ENSO and water availability and scarcity

  9. Interdecadal Change in the Relationship Between the North Pacific Oscillation and the Pacific Meridional Mode and Its Impact on ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, So-Jung; An, Soon-Il

    2018-02-01

    Two leading but independent modes of Northern Pacific atmospheric circulation: the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and the Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM), are known external triggers of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by the sequential migration of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies into the tropics possibly by means of wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedbacks. Because of the similar roles of NPO and PMM, most previous studies have explored them with no separation. Here, we investigate their independent and combined effects in triggering ENSO, and find that when the NPO and PMM occur simultaneously during spring, ENSO or ENSO-like SST anomalies are generated during the following winter; whereas when either the NPO or PMM occur alone, ENSO events rarely occur. Furthermore, the relationship between NPO and PMM shows noticeable interdecadal variability, which is related to decadal changes in the mean upper-level jet stream over the North Pacific. Changes in the upper-level jet stream modify the location of the center of the Aleutian Low, which plays a role in bridging the NPO and PMM processes, especially when it migrates to the southwest. The period when NPO and PMM are well correlated coincides somewhat with the active ENSO period, and vice versa, indicating that a more efficient trigger due to combined NPO-PMM processes results in a higher variation of ENSO. Finally, analysis of the coupled model control simulations strongly supports our observational analysis results.

  10. The influence of boreal spring Arctic Oscillation on the subsequent winter ENSO in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shangfeng; Chen, Wen; Yu, Bin

    2017-05-01

    This study examines the influence of boreal spring Arctic Oscillation (AO) on the subsequent winter El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using 15 climate model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Results show that, out of the 15 CMIP5 models, CCSM4 and CNRM-CM5 can well reproduce the significant AO-ENSO connection. These two models capture the observed spring AO related anomalous cyclone (anticyclone) over the subtropical western-central North Pacific, and westerly (easterly) winds over the tropical western-central Pacific. In contrast, the spring AO-related anomalous circulation over the subtropical North Pacific is insignificant in the other 13 models, and the simulations in these models cannot capture the significant influence of the spring AO on ENSO. Further analyses indicate that the performance of the CMIP5 simulations in reproducing the AO-ENSO connection is related to the ability in simulating the spring North Pacific synoptic eddy intensity and the spring AO's Pacific component. Strong synoptic-scale eddy intensity results in a strong synoptic eddy feedback on the mean flow, leading to strong cyclonic circulation anomalies over the subtropical North Pacific, which contributes to a significant AO-ENSO connection. In addition, a strong spring AO's Pacific component and associated easterly wind anomalies to its south may provide more favorable conditions for the development of spring AO-related cyclonic circulation anomalies over the subtropical North Pacific.

  11. Tropospheric Ozone Pollution from Space: New Views from the TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Anne M.; Hudson, Robert D.; Frolov, Alexander D.; Witte, Jacquelyn C.; Kucsera, Tom L.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    New products from the TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) >satellite instrument can resolve pollution events in tropical and mid-latitudes, Over the past several years, we have developed tropospheric ozone data sets by two methods. The modified-residual technique [Hudson and Thompson, 1998; Thompson and Hudson, 1999] uses v. 7 TOMS total ozone and is applicable to tropical regimes in which the wave-one pattern in total ozone is observed. The TOMSdirect method [Hudson et at., 2000] represents a new algorithm that uses TOMS radiances to extract tropospheric ozone in regions of constant stratospheric ozone and tropospheric ozone displaying high mixing ratios and variability characteristic of pollution, Absorbing aerosols (dust and smoke; Herman et at., 1997 Hsu et al., 1999), a standard TOMS product, provide transport and/or source marker information to interpret tropospheric ozone. For the Nimbus 7/TOMS observing period (1979-1992), modified-residual TTO (tropical tropospheric ozone) appears as two maps/month at I-degree latitude 2-degree longitude resolution at a homepage and digital data are available (20S to 20N) by ftp at http://metosrv2. umd.edu/tropo/ 14y_data.d. Preliminary modified-residual TTO data from the operational Earth-Probe/TOMS (1996- present) are posted in near-real-time at the same website. Analyses with the new tropospheric ozone and aerosol data are illustrated by the following (I)Signals in tropical tropospheric ozone column and smoke amount during ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) events, e.g. 1982-1983 and the intense ENSO induced biomass fires of 1997-1998 over the Indonesian region [Thompson et a[, 2000a, Thompson and Hudson, 1999]. (2) Trends in tropospheric ozone and smoke aerosols in various tropical regions (Atlantic, Pacific, Africa, Brazil). No significant trends were found for ozone from1980-1990 [Thompson and Hudson, 19991 although smoke aerosols increased during the period [Hsu et al.,1999]. (3) Temporal and spatial offsets

  12. The 1950-1998 warm ENSO events and regional implications to ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    1998 seasonal El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is investigated in 502 rivers gauged in 9 countries of the Southern African region. We found some evidence of possible links between available surface water resources in terms of mean annual ...

  13. Do our reconstructions of ENSO have too much low-frequency variability?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loope, G. R.; Overpeck, J. T.

    2017-12-01

    Reconstructing the spectrum of Pacific SST variability has proven to be difficult both because of complications with proxy systems such as tree rings and the relatively small number of records from the tropical Pacific. We show that the small number of long coral δ18O and Sr/Ca records has caused a bias towards having too much low-frequency variability in PCR, CPS, and RegEM reconstructions of Pacific variability. This occurs because the individual coral records used in the reconstructions have redder spectra than the shared signal (e.g. ENSO). This causes some of the unshared, low-frequency signal from local climate, salinity and possibly coral biology to bleed into the reconstruction. With enough chronologies in a reconstruction, this unshared noise cancels out but the problem is exacerbated in our longest reconstructions where fewer records are available. Coral proxies tend to have more low-frequency variability than SST observations so this problem is smaller but can still be seen in pseudoproxy experiments using observations and reanalysis data. The identification of this low-frequency bias in coral reconstructions helps bring the spectra of ENSO reconstructions back into line with both models and observations. Although our analysis is mostly constrained to the 20th century due to lack of sufficient data, we expect that as more long chronologies are developed, the low-frequency signal in ENSO reconstructions will be greatly reduced.

  14. CMS: MODIS GPP, fPAR, and SST, and ENSO Index, Baja California, Mexico, 2000-2013

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set provides data for MODIS-derived (1) gross primary productivity (GPP) for the years 2000-2010, (2) fraction of photosynthetically active radiation...

  15. Precipitation response to the current ENSO variability in a warming world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonfils, C.; Santer, B. D.; Phillips, T. J.; Marvel, K.; Leung, L.

    2013-12-01

    The major triggers of past and recent droughts include large modes of variability, such as ENSO, as well as specific and persistent patterns of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs; Hoerling and Kumar, 2003, Shin et al. 2010, Schubert et al. 2009). However, alternative drought initiators are also anticipated in response to increasing greenhouse gases, potentially changing the relative contribution of ocean variability as drought initiator. They include the intensification of the current zonal wet-dry patterns (the thermodynamic mechanism, Held and Soden, 2006), a latitudinal redistribution of global precipitation (the dynamical mechanism, Seager et al. 2007, Seidel et al. 2008, Scheff and Frierson 2008) and a reduction of local soil moisture and precipitation recycling (the land-atmosphere argument). Our ultimate goal is to investigate whether the relative contribution of those mechanisms change over time in response to global warming. In this study, we first perform an EOF analysis of the 1900-1999 time series of observed global SST field and identify a simple ENSO-like (ENSOL) mode of SST variability. We show that this mode is well spatially and temporally correlated with observed worldwide regional precipitation and drought variability. We then develop concise metrics to examine the fidelity with which the CMIP5 coupled global climate models (CGCMs) capture this particular ENSO-like mode in the current climate, and their ability to replicate the observed teleconnections with precipitation. Based on the CMIP5 model projections of future climate change, we finally analyze the potential temporal variations in ENSOL to be anticipated under further global warming, as well as their associated teleconnections with precipitation (pattern, amplitude, and total response). Overall, our approach allows us to determine what will be the effect of the current ENSO-like variability (i.e., as measured with instrumental observations) on precipitation in a warming world. This

  16. Equatorial Precession Drove Mid-Latitude Changes in ENSO-Scale Variation in the Earliest Miocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, B.; D'Andrea, W. J.; Lee, D. E.; Wilson, G. S.

    2014-12-01

    Foulden Maar is an annually laminated lacustrine diatomite deposit from the South Island of New Zealand. The deposit was laid down over ~100 kyr of the latest Oligocene and earliest Miocene, during the peak and deglaciation phase of the Mi-1 Antarctic glaciation event. At this time, New Zealand was located at approximately the same latitude as today (~45°S). Evidence from organic geochemical proxies (δD, δ13C) and physical properties (density, colour) indicates the presence of an 11-kyr cycle at the site. Although it is known that 11-kyr insolation (half-precession) cycles occur between the Tropics, this cycle is rarely seen in sedimentary archives deposited outside the immediate vicinity of the Equator. Records from Foulden Maar correlate well with the amplitude and phase of the modelled equatorial half-precession cycle for the earliest Miocene. High-resolution (50 µm) colour intensity measurements and lamina thickness measurements both indicate the presence of significant ENSO-like (2-8 year) variation in the Foulden Maar sediments. Early results from targeted lamina thickness measurements suggest that ENSO-band variation is modulated by the 11-kyr cycle, with power in the ENSO band increasing during periods of increased insolation at the Equator. This implies that equatorial half-precession had a significant effect on ENSO-like variation in the early Miocene, and that this effect was felt as far afield as the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere.

  17. Influence of surface nudging on climatological mean and ENSO feedbacks in a coupled model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Jieshun; Kumar, Arun

    2018-01-01

    Studies have suggested that surface nudging could be an efficient way to reconstruct the subsurface ocean variability, and thus a useful method for initializing climate predictions (e.g., seasonal and decadal predictions). Surface nudging is also the basis for climate models with flux adjustments. In this study, however, some negative aspects of surface nudging on climate simulations in a coupled model are identified. Specifically, a low-resolution version of the NCEP Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2L) is used to examine the influence of nudging on simulations of climatological mean and on the coupled feedbacks during ENSO. The effect on ENSO feedbacks is diagnosed following a heat budget analysis of mixed layer temperature anomalies. Diagnostics of the climatological mean state indicates that, even though SST biases in all ocean basins, as expected, are eliminated, the fidelity of climatological precipitation, surface winds and subsurface temperature (or the thermocline depth) could be highly ocean basin dependent. This is exemplified by improvements in the climatology of these variables in the tropical Atlantic, but degradations in the tropical Pacific. Furthermore, surface nudging also distorts the dynamical feedbacks during ENSO. For example, while the thermocline feedback played a critical role during the evolution of ENSO in a free simulation, it only played a minor role in the nudged simulation. These results imply that, even though the simulation of surface temperature could be improved in a climate model with surface nudging, the physics behind might be unrealistic.

  18. The Influence of ENSO to the Rainfall Variability in North Sumatra Province

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irwandi, H.; Pusparini, N.; Ariantono, J. Y.; Kurniawan, R.; Tari, C. A.; Sudrajat, A.

    2018-04-01

    The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global phenomenon that affects the variability of rainfall in North Sumatra. The influence of ENSO will be different for each region. This review will analyse the influence of ENSO activity on seasonal and annual rainfall variability. In this research, North Sumatra Province will be divided into 4 (four) regions based on topographical conditions, such as: East Coast (EC), East Slope (ES), Mountains (MT), and West Coast (WC). The method used was statistical and descriptive analysis. Data used in this research were rainfall data from 15 stations / climate observation posts which spread in North Sumatera region and also anomaly data of Nino 3.4 region from period 1981-2016. The results showed that the active El Niño had an effect on the decreasing the rainfall during the period of DJF, JJA and SON in East Coast, East Slope, and Mountains with the decreasing of average percentage of annual rainfall up to 7%. On the contrary, the active La Nina had an effect on the addition of rainfall during the period DJF and JJA in the East Coast and Mountains with the increasing of average percentage of annual rainfall up to 6%.

  19. Do regions outside the tropical Pacific influence ENSO through atmospheric teleconnections?

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Dayan, H.; Izumo, T.; Vialard, J.; Lengaigne, M.; Masson, S

    This paper aims at identifying oceanic regions outside the tropical Pacific, which may influence the El Ni�o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) through interannual modulation of equatorial Pacific winds An Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) 7...

  20. Tucannon River Spring Chinook Salmon Captive Brood Program, FY 2000 Annual Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bumgarner, Joseph D.; Gallinat, Michael P.

    2001-06-01

    This report summarizes the objectives, tasks, and accomplishments of the Tucannon River spring chinook captive brood program from program inception (1997) through April 2001. The WDFW initiated a captive broodstock program in 1997. The overall goal of the Tucannon River captive broodstock program is for the short-term, and eventually long-term, rebuilding of the Tucannon River spring chinook salmon run, with the hope that natural production will eventually sustain itself. The project goal is to rear captive salmon to adults, spawn them, rear their progeny, and release approximately 150,000 smolts annually into the Tucannon River between 2003-2007. These smolt releases, in combination with the current hatchery supplementation program (132,000 smolts), and wild production, is expected to produce 600-700 returning adult spring chinook to the Tucannon River each year from 2005-2010. The Master Plan, Environmental Assessment, and most facility modifications at LFH were completed for the Tucannon River spring chinook captive broodstock program during FY2000 and FY2001. DNA samples collected since 1997 have been sent to the WDFW genetics lab in Olympia for baseline DNA analysis. Results from the genetic analysis are not available at this time. The captive broodstock program is planned to collect fish from five (1997-2001) brood years (BY). The captive broodstock program was initiated with 1997 BY juveniles, and the 2000 BY fish have been selected. As of April 30, 2001, WDFW has 172 BY 1997, 262 BY 1998, 407 BY 1999, and approximately 1,190 BY 2000 fish on hand at LFH. Twelve of 13 mature 97 BY females were spawned in 2000. Total eggtake was 14,813. Mean fecundity was 1,298 eggs/female based on 11 fully spawned females. Egg survival to eye-up was 47.3%. This low survival was expected for three year old captive broodstock females. As of April 30, 2001, WDFW has 4,211 captive broodstock progeny on hand. These fish will be tagged with blank wire tag without fin clips and

  1. L'effet ENSO Sur les précipitations et les écoulements au XXème siècle - exemple de l'Equateur

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1993-01-01

    Full Text Available Sur le littoral équatorien, l'analyse statistique des données pluviométriques disponibles, qui s'étalent sur une cinquantaine d'années, a permis de mettre en évidence deux résultats principaux : 1 -les effets de ENSO ne sont pas tous aussi négatifs qu'on le pense habituellement 2 - la fréquence de retour du ENSO 1982-1983 est supérieure à 1000 ans et son impact sur le milieu morpho-dynamique va au-delà des 100 000 km2. IMPACTO DE ENSO EN LAS PRECIPITACIONES Y ESCURRIMIENTOS DURANTE EL SIGLO XX - EL CASO DEL ECUADOR. En la región litoral del Ecuador, un análisis estadístico de las series pluviométricas disponibles, alrededor de cincuenta años, acarrea dos resultados principales: 1 - los efectos de ENSO no son todos tan negativos como se piensa habitualmente 2 - el período de retorno del ENSO 1982-1983 es mayor de los mil años y su impacto sobre el medio geomorfodinámico abarca más de 100 000 km2. ENSO IMPACT ON RAINFALL AND RUNOFF IN XXth CENTURY - CASE OF ECUADOR. On the Pacific coastal region of Ecuador, a statistical analysis of the largest available pluviometric records, about fifty years, yields two main results: 1 - ENSO effects are not so negative as one usually comments 2 - the return period of ENSO 1982-1983 occurrence is over one thousand years and the geomorphodynamic impact acts upon 100 000 km2.

  2. A High-Resolution ENSO-Driven Rainfall Record Derived From an Exceptionally Fast Growing Stalagmite From Niue Island (South Pacific)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Troy, S.; Aharon, P.; Lambert, W. J.

    2012-12-01

    El Niño-Southern Oscillation's (ENSO) dominant control over the present global climate and its unpredictable response to a global warming makes the study of paleo-ENSO important. So far corals, spanning the Tropical Pacific Ocean, are the most commonly used geological archives of paleo-ENSO. This is because corals typically exhibit high growth rates (>1 cm/yr), and reproduce reliably surface water temperatures at sub-annual resolution. However there are limitations to coral archives because their time span is relatively brief (in the order of centuries), thus far making a long and continuous ENSO record difficult to achieve. On the other hand stalagmites from island settings can offer long and continuous records of ENSO-driven rainfall. Niue Island caves offer an unusual opportunity to investigate ENSO-driven paleo-rainfall because the island is isolated from other large land masses, making it untainted by continental climate artifacts, and its geographical location is within the Tropical Pacific "rain pool" (South Pacific Convergence Zone; SPCZ) that makes the rainfall variability particularly sensitive to the ENSO phase switches. We present here a δ18O and δ13C time series from a stalagmite sampled on Niue Island (19°00' S, 169°50' W) that exhibits exceptionally high growth rates (~1.2 mm/yr) thus affording a resolution comparable to corals but for much longer time spans. A precise chronology, dating back to several millennia, was achieved by U/Th dating of the stalagmite. The stalagmite was sampled using a Computer Automated Mill (CAM) at 300 μm increments in order to receive sub-annual resolution (every 3 months) and calcite powders of 50-100 μg weight were analyzed for δ18O and δ13C using a Continuous Flow Isotope Ratio Mass Spectrometer (CF-IRMS). The isotope time series contains variable shifts at seasonal, inter-annual, and inter-decadal periodicities. The δ13C and δ18O yield ranges of -3.0 to -13.0 (‰ VPDB) and -3.2 to -6.2 (‰ VPDB

  3. Africa burning: A thematic analysis of the Southern African Regional Science Initiative (SAFARI 2000)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swap, Robert J.; Annegarn, Harold J.; Suttles, J. Timothy; King, Michael D.; Platnick, Steven; Privette, Jeffrey L.; Scholes, Robert J.

    2003-07-01

    The Southern African Regional Science Initiative (SAFARI 2000) was a major surface, airborne, and spaceborne field campaign carried out in southern Africa in 2000 and 2001 that addressed a broad range of phenomena related to land-atmosphere interactions and the biogeochemical functioning of the southern African system. This paper presents a thematic analysis and integration of the Journal of Geophysical Research SAFARI 2000 Special Issue, presenting key findings of an intensive field campaign over southern Africa in August and September of 2000. The integrating themes deal with surface emissions characterization; airborne characterizations of aerosols and trace gases; regional haze and trace gas characterization; and radiant measurements by surface, aircraft, and remote sensing platforms. Enhanced regional fuel loads associated with the moist La Niña phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle produced above average biomass burning emissions, which consequently dominated all other aerosol and trace gas emissions during the dry season. Southward transport of a broad plume of smoke originating in equatorial Africa and exiting off the east coast toward the Indian Ocean (the river of smoke) is attributed to unusual synoptic airflows associated the ENSO phase. New and revised biogenic and pyrogenic emission factors are reported, including a number of previously unreported oxygenated organic compounds and inorganic compounds from biomass combustion. Emission factors are scaled up to regional emission surfaces for biogenic species utilizing species specific and light-dependent emission factors. Fire scar estimates reveal contradictory information on the timing of the peak and extent of the biomass-burning season. Integrated tall stack coordinated measurements (between ground, airborne and remotely sensing platforms) of upwelling and downwelling radiation in massive thick aerosol layers covering much of southern Africa yield consistent estimates of large

  4. Possible influence of the ENSO phenomenon on the pathoecology of diphyllobothriasis and anisakiasis in ancient Chinchorro populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernardo T Arriaza

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Current clinical data show a clear relationship between the zoonosis rates of Diphyllobothrium pacificum and Anisakis caused by the El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO phenomenon along the Chilean coast. These parasites are endemic to the region and have a specific habitat distribution. D. pacificum prefers the warmer waters in the northern coast, while Anisakis prefers the colder waters of Southern Chile. The ENSO phenomenon causes a drastic inversion in the seawater temperatures in this region, modifying both the cool nutrient-rich seawater and the local ecology. This causes a latitudinal shift in marine parasite distribution and prevalence, as well as drastic environmental changes. The abundance of human mummies and archaeological coastal sites in the Atacama Desert provides an excellent model to test the ENSO impact on antiquity. We review the clinical and archaeological literature debating to what extent these parasites affected the health of the Chinchorros, the earliest settlers of this region. We hypothesise the Chinchorro and their descendants were affected by this natural and cyclical ENSO phenomenon and should therefore present fluctuating rates of D. pacificum and Anisakis infestations.

  5. Spatiotemporal Variance of Global Horizontal Moisture Transport and the Influence of Strong ENSO Events Using ERA-Interim Reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kutta, E. J.; Hubbart, J. A.; Svoma, B. M.; Eichler, T. P.; Lupo, A. R.

    2016-12-01

    El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is well documented as a leading source of seasonal to inter-annual variations in global weather and climate. Strong ENSO events have been shown to alter the location and magnitude of Hadley and Walker circulations that maintain equilibrium at tropical latitudes and regulate moisture transport into mid-latitude storm tracks. Broad impacts associated with ENSO events include anomalous regional precipitation (ARP) and temperature patterns and subsequent impacts to socioeconomic and human health systems. Potential socioeconomic and human health impacts range from regional changes in water resources and agricultural productivity to local storm water management, particularly in rapidly urbanizing watersheds. Evidence is mounting to suggest that anthropogenic climate change will increase the frequency of heavy precipitation events, which compounds impacts of ARP patterns associated with strong El Nino events. Therefore, the need exists to identify common regional patterns of spatiotemporal variance of horizontal moisture flux (HMF) during months (Oct-Feb) associated with the peak intensity (Oceanic Nino Index [ONI]) of the three strongest El Nino (ONI > µ + 2σ) and La Nina (ONI hourly resolution before taking the density weighted vertical average. Long term means (LTM; 1979-2015) were quantified and the influence of strong ENSO events was assessed by quantifying deviations from the LTM for each respective covariance property during months associated with the selected ENSO events. Results reveal regions of statistically significant (CI = 0.05) differences from the LTM for the vertically integrated HMF and each covariance quantity. Broader implications of this work include potential for improved seasonal precipitation forecasts at regional scales and subsequent improvements to local water resource management. There is potential for future work objectively comparing these results with output from Earth System Models to improve

  6. ENSO events are induced by the Global Atmosphere Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serykh, Ilya; Byshev, Vladimir; Neiman, Victor; Romanov, Juri

    2014-05-01

    The large-scale anomalies in the planetary fields of the principal hydro-meteorological characteristics were found to appear prior the beginning and during the main phase of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean. The anomalies were interpreted as manifestation of the interannual Global Atmosphere Oscillation (GAO) in dynamics of the modern climatic system. The key feature of the GAO baric structure is a large-scale positive anomaly in tropical area (30N-30S, 50W-170E) surrounded by negative anomaly bending its outer boundaries. Eventually, such reconstruction of the atmospheric pressure field over tropical zone as a consequence of the GAO leads to Walker circulation cell reversal which is immediately followed by the next El Niño process starting. Spatio-temporal structure of the anomalous hydro-meteorological fields developing under impact of the GAO was analyzed using the monthly-mean atmospheric pressure data at sea level (HadSLP2) and near-surface temperature (CRUTEM4) prepared by GB Met Office Hadley Centre for period of 1948-2012, also we used wind data from US NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the same period. Due to the presence of feed-forwards and feedbacks in the climate dynamics, the large-scale anomalies of characteristics appearing after the GAO cause their back effect on the system of interaction of the ocean-atmosphere-land. This is the secondary impact which can be implemented either by direct exchange of properties between the adjacent areas (this is seen most explicitly in the Indo-Pacific Region), or owing to teleconnections between the concrete climatic subsystems in different parts of the Earth. It is apparently that the secondary, or indirect, GAO impact spreading through the system of general atmospheric circulation has a certain phase shift in different areas, which depends first on the distance from the respective climatic anomalies, in particular, from the most intensive of them, appearing in the equatorial

  7. Assessment of the APCC Coupled MME Suite in Predicting the Distinctive Climate Impacts of Two Flavors of ENSO during Boreal Winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, Hye-In; Lee, Doo Young; Karumuri, Ashok; Ahn, Joong-Bae; Lee, June-Yi; Luo, Jing-Jia; Schemm, Jae-Kyung E.; Hendon, Harry H.; Braganza, Karl; Ham, Yoo-Geun

    2012-01-01

    Forecast skill of the APEC Climate Center (APCC) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) seasonal forecast system in predicting two main types of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely canonical (or cold tongue) and Modoki ENSO, and their regional climate impacts is assessed for boreal winter. The APCC MME is constructed by simple composite of ensemble forecasts from five independent coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Based on a hindcast set targeting boreal winter prediction for the period 19822004, we show that the MME can predict and discern the important differences in the patterns of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly between the canonical and Modoki ENSO one and four month ahead. Importantly, the four month lead MME beats the persistent forecast. The MME reasonably predicts the distinct impacts of the canonical ENSO, including the strong winter monsoon rainfall over East Asia, the below normal rainfall and above normal temperature over Australia, the anomalously wet conditions across the south and cold conditions over the whole area of USA, and the anomalously dry conditions over South America. However, there are some limitations in capturing its regional impacts, especially, over Australasia and tropical South America at a lead time of one and four months. Nonetheless, forecast skills for rainfall and temperature over East Asia and North America during ENSO Modoki are comparable to or slightly higher than those during canonical ENSO events.

  8. El ciclo anual de la hidrología de Colombia en relación con el ENSO y la NAO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available INFLUENCE DE L’ENSO ET DE LA NAO SUR LE CYCLE ANNUEL DE L’HYDROLOGIE DE COLOMBIE. On évalue l’impact de El Niño-Oscillation du Sud (ENSO et de l’Oscillation de l’Atlantique Nord (NAO sur le cycle annuel hydrologique colombien. Les résultats du Projet de Réanalyse Climatologique NCEP/NCAR ont été utilisés pour identifier les mécanismes de la circulation atmosphérique qui interviennent dans cette région au cours des phases extrêmes de l’ENSO. En particulier, l’affaiblissement du courant jet inférieur d’ouest, qui se propage du Pacifique vers l’intérieur de la Colombie, est l’un des principaux mécanismes de circulation susceptible de nous aider à expliquer les anomalies hydrologiques en situation El Niño. Les résultats confirment l’importance de l’influence de l’ENSO et de la NAO sur les précipitations et les débits de Colombie, en particulier au cours des trimestres de septembre-octobre-novembre et de décembre-janvier-février. Se cuantifica la dependencia del ciclo anual de la hidroclimatología de Colombia con respecto del fenómeno El Niño-Oscilación del Sur (ENSO y la Oscilación del Atlántico Norte (NAO. Se usan los resultados del Proyecto de Reanálisis Climático de NCEP/NCAR para identificar los mecanismos de la circulación involucrados en las anomalías climáticas en la región de Suramérica tropical durante las fases extremas del ENSO (El Niño y La Niña. De particular importancia, el debilitamiento, durante El Niño, de la corriente de chorro superficial del oeste que penetra desde el Océano Pacífico hacia el interior de Colombia es un mecanismo de la circulación que coadyuva para explicar las anomalías hidrológicas. Los resultados confirman la fuerte influencia del ENSO y la NAO sobre las lluvias y los caudales de Colombia, en particular durante los trimestres septiembre-octubre-noviembre y diciembre-enero-febrero. THE ANNUAL CYCLE OF THE HYDROLOGY IN COLOMBIA IN RELATION TO THE ENSO AND NAO

  9. Role of the upper ocean structure in the response of ENSO-like SST variability to global warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yeh, Sang-Wook [Hanyang University, Department of Environmental Marine Science, Ansan (Korea); Dewitte, Boris [Laboratoire d' Etude en Geophysique et Oceanographie Spatiale, Toulouse (France); Yim, Bo Young; Noh, Yign [Yonsei University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Global Environmental Laboratory, Seoul (Korea)

    2010-08-15

    The response of El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like variability to global warming varies comparatively between the two different climate system models, i.e., the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs). Here, we examine the role of the simulated upper ocean temperature structure in the different sensitivities of the simulated ENSO variability in the models based on the different level of CO{sub 2} concentrations. In the MRI model, the sea surface temperature (SST) undergoes a rather drastic modification, namely a tendency toward a permanent El Nino-like state. This is associated with an enhanced stratification which results in greater ENSO amplitude for the MRI model. On the other hand, the ENSO simulated by GFDL model is hardly modified although the mean temperature in the near surface layer increases. In order to understand the associated mechanisms we carry out a vertical mode decomposition of the mean equatorial stratification and a simplified heat balance analysis using an intermediate tropical Pacific model tuned from the CGCM outputs. It is found that in the MRI model the increased stratification is associated with an enhancement of the zonal advective feedback and the non-linear advection. In the GFDL model, on the other hand, the thermocline variability and associated anomalous vertical advection are reduced in the eastern equatorial Pacific under global warming, which erodes the thermocline feedback and explains why the ENSO amplitude is reduced in a warmer climate in this model. It is suggested that change in stratification associated with global warming impacts the equatorial wave dynamics in a way that enhances the second baroclinic mode over the gravest one, which leads to the change in feedback processes in the CGCMs. Our results illustrate that the upper ocean vertical structure simulated in the CGCMs is a key parameter of the sensitivity of ENSO

  10. A stable isotope-based approach to tropical dendroclimatology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Michael N.; Schrag, Daniel P.

    2004-08-01

    We describe a strategy for development of chronological control in tropical trees lacking demonstrably annual ring formation, using high resolution δ 18O measurements in tropical wood. The approach applies existing models of the oxygen isotopic composition of alpha-cellulose (Roden et al., 2000), a rapid method for cellulose extraction from raw wood (Brendel et al., 2000), and continuous flow isotope ratio mass spectrometry (Brenna et al., 1998) to develop proxy chronological, rainfall and growth rate estimates from tropical trees lacking visible annual ring structure. Consistent with model predictions, pilot datasets from the temperate US and Costa Rica having independent chronological control suggest that observed cyclic isotopic signatures of several permil (SMOW) represent the annual cycle of local rainfall and relative humidity. Additional data from a plantation tree of known age from ENSO-sensitive northwestern coastal Peru suggests that the 1997-8 ENSO warm phase event was recorded as an 8‰ anomaly in the δ 18O of α-cellulose. The results demonstrate reproducibility of the stable isotopic chronometer over decades, two different climatic zones, and three tropical tree genera, and point to future applications in paleoclimatology.

  11. ENSO-induced inter-annual sea level variability in the Singapore strait

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Soumya, M.; Vethamony, P.; Tkalich, P.

    Sea level data from four tide gauge stations in the SS (Tanjong Pagar, Sultan Shoal, Sembawang and Raffles Lighthouse) for the period 1970-2012 were extracted to study the ENSO-induced interannual sea level variability Sea level during this period...

  12. Web Technology Conferences Exhibition LEPFest 2000

    CERN Multimedia

    2000-01-01

    1994 CERN,Geneva - First, VRML1994 NCSA,Chicago - Browsers, Mosaic1995 Fraunhofer Gesellschaft,Darmstadt - Java 1995 MIT,Boston - Security1996 INRIA Paris - SMEs;European Union1997 SLAC/Stanford University,California - Acces 1998 Southern Cross University, Australia - Internationalisation1999 University of Toronto,Toronto - XML, e-commerce2000 CWI,Amsterdam - Multimedia,SMIL2001 Universities of Hong Kong,Hong Kong2002 University of Hawaii,Hawaii

  13. Tucannon River spring chinook salmon captive brood program, FY 2000 annual report; ANNUAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bumgarner, Joseph D.; Gallinat, Michael P.

    2001-01-01

    This report summarizes the objectives, tasks, and accomplishments of the Tucannon River spring chinook captive brood program from program inception (1997) through April 2001. The WDFW initiated a captive broodstock program in 1997. The overall goal of the Tucannon River captive broodstock program is for the short-term, and eventually long-term, rebuilding of the Tucannon River spring chinook salmon run, with the hope that natural production will eventually sustain itself. The project goal is to rear captive salmon to adults, spawn them, rear their progeny, and release approximately 150,000 smolts annually into the Tucannon River between 2003-2007. These smolt releases, in combination with the current hatchery supplementation program (132,000 smolts), and wild production, is expected to produce 600-700 returning adult spring chinook to the Tucannon River each year from 2005-2010. The Master Plan, Environmental Assessment, and most facility modifications at LFH were completed for the Tucannon River spring chinook captive broodstock program during FY2000 and FY2001. DNA samples collected since 1997 have been sent to the WDFW genetics lab in Olympia for baseline DNA analysis. Results from the genetic analysis are not available at this time. The captive broodstock program is planned to collect fish from five (1997-2001) brood years (BY). The captive broodstock program was initiated with 1997 BY juveniles, and the 2000 BY fish have been selected. As of April 30, 2001, WDFW has 172 BY 1997, 262 BY 1998, 407 BY 1999, and approximately 1,190 BY 2000 fish on hand at LFH. Twelve of 13 mature 97 BY females were spawned in 2000. Total eggtake was 14,813. Mean fecundity was 1,298 eggs/female based on 11 fully spawned females. Egg survival to eye-up was 47.3%. This low survival was expected for three year old captive broodstock females. As of April 30, 2001, WDFW has 4,211 captive broodstock progeny on hand. These fish will be tagged with blank wire tag without fin clips and

  14. An MJO-Mediated Mechanism to Explain ENSO and IOD Impacts on East African Short Rains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaitchik, B. F.; Berhane, F.; Gnanadesikan, A.

    2015-12-01

    Previous studies have found that the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) have significant impacts on rainfall over East Africa (EA) during the short rains (Oct-Dec). However, not all ENSO and IOD events are associated with significant precipitation anomalies over EA. Our analysis shows that the IOD and ENSO influence EA rainfall by modifying the MJO. Composite analysis of rainfall and outgoing longwave radiation data show that the MJO over the Indian Ocean (phases 2 and 3 of the Wheeler and Hendon index) is associated with significant increase in precipitation over EA during El Niño. In La Niña and non-ENSO years, the MJO over the Indian Ocean has very weak impacts on EA convection and precipitation. Although previous studies have found that El Niño / La Niña events are associated with anomalous wetness/dryness over EA, the associations are not evident in the absence of the MJO. Similarly, the IOD exhibits strong associations with EA precipitation when there is MJO activity over the Indian Ocean. During the positive phase of the IOD, the MJO over the Indian Ocean has impacts that extend to EA. In the absence of the MJO, however, the IOD shows weak associations with EA precipitation. Furthermore, there are more MJO days in the Indian Ocean during El Niño and positive IOD events, which implies stronger impacts on EA. During La Niña events more MJO days are observed in the Pacific Ocean, favoring subsidence over the western Indian Ocean and dry anomalies over EA. These observations suggest two critical MJO-related questions that must be addressed in order to explain EA short rain variability typically attributed to ENSO or IOD: first, how do ENSO and IOD modify background conditions in a way that causes Indian Ocean MJO activity to be more strongly connected to EA under El Niño and IOD positive conditions, and second, why is it that El Niño and IOD positive states slow MJO propagation over the Indian Ocean and speed it over

  15. Oceanic Channel of the IOD-ENSO teleconnection over the Indo-Pacific Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Dongliang; Wang, Jing; Zhao, Xia; Zhou, Hui; Xu, Tengfei; Xu, Peng

    2017-04-01

    The lag correlations of observations and model simulated data that participate the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 (CMIP5) are used to study the precursory teleconnection between the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the Pacific ENSO one year later through the Indonesian seas. The results suggest that Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) play an important role in the IOD-ENSO teleconnection. Numerical simulations using a hierarchy of ocean models and climate coupled models have shown that the interannual sea level depressions in the southeastern Indian Ocean during IOD force enhanced ITF to transport warm water of the Pacific warm pool to the Indian Ocean, producing cold subsurface temperature anomalies, which propagate to the eastern equatorial Pacific and induce significant coupled ocean-atmosphere evolution. The teleconnection is found to have decadal variability. Similar decadal variability has also been identified in the historical simulations of the CMIP5 models. The dynamics of the inter-basin teleconnection during the positive phases of the decadal variability are diagnosed to be the interannual variations of the ITF associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). During the negative phases, the thermocline in the eastern equatorial Pacific is anomalously deeper so that the sea surface temperature anomalies in the cold tongue are not sensitive to the thermocline depth changes. The IOD-ENSO teleconnection is found not affected significantly by the anthropogenic forcing.

  16. Interannual hydroclimatic variability and the 2009-2011 extreme ENSO phases in Colombia: from Andean glaciers to Caribbean lowlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bedoya-Soto, Juan Mauricio; Poveda, Germán; Trenberth, Kevin E.; Vélez-Upegui, Jorge Julián

    2018-03-01

    During 2009-2011, Colombia experienced extreme hydroclimatic events associated with the extreme phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Here, we study the dynamics of diverse land-atmosphere phenomena involved in such anomalous events at continental, regional, and local scales. Standardized anomalies of precipitation, 2-m temperature, total column water (TCW), volumetric soil water (VSW), temperature at 925 hPa, surface sensible heat (SSH), latent heat (SLH), evaporation (EVP), and liquid water equivalent thickness (LWET) are analyzed to assess atmosphere-land controls and relationships over tropical South America (TropSA) during 1986-2013 (long term) and 2009-2011 (ENSO extreme phases). An assessment of the interannual covariability between precipitation and 2-m temperature is performed using singular value decomposition (SVD) to identify the dominant spatiotemporal modes of hydroclimatic variability over the region's largest river basins (Amazon, Orinoco, Tocantins, Magdalena-Cauca, and Essequibo). ENSO, its evolution in time, and strong and consistent spatial structures emerge as the dominant mode of variability. In situ anomalies during both extreme phases of ENSO 2009-2011 over the Magdalena-Cauca River basins are linked at the continental scale. The ENSO-driven hydroclimatic effects extend from the diurnal cycle to interannual timescales, as reflected in temperature data from tropical glaciers and the rain-snow boundary in the highest peaks of the Central Andes of Colombia to river levels along the Caribbean lowlands of the Magdalena-Cauca River basin.

  17. Factores de riesgo de bajo peso al nacer en un hospital cubano, 1997-2000

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Escobar José Andrés Cabrales

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Objetivo. Identificar qué factores de riesgo materno durante el embarazo se asocian a la incidencia de bajo peso al nacer (menos de 2 500 g. Métodos. Se diseñó un estudio de casos y testigos con 764 casos de nacimiento simple con un peso al nacer de menos de 2 500 g, y 1 437 testigos del Hospital Gineco-Obstétrico Provincial de Sancti Spíritus, Cuba, durante el cuatrienio de 1997-2000. Los datos se obtuvieron de historias clínicas, registros de partos y entrevistas personales con las madres. Se realizó un análisis con dos variables y se controlaron los posibles factores de confusión mediante regresión logística dicotómica con el programa SPSS. Se usó un modelo final de múltiples variables para identificar los factores de riesgo maternos asociados con el bajo peso al nacer. Resultados. El análisis con múltiples variables mostró una asociación significativa del bajo peso al nacer con la presencia de anemia en la madre cuando se detectó el embarazo, la sepsis urinaria durante el embarazo, el asma bronquial, un aumento de peso materno menor de 8 kg durante todo el embarazo, el hábito de fumar durante el mismo, antecedentes de bajo peso al nacer en partos anteriores, la presencia de hipertensión arterial desde antes de la gestación y la consulta prenatal extemporánea. Conclusiones. A partir de estos resultados se concluyó que, independientemente de la medida de impacto utilizada, es importante tratar de disminuir los factores de riesgo identificados a fin de reducir la incidencia del bajo peso al nacer en la provincia de Sancti Spíritus.

  18. Factores de riesgo de bajo peso al nacer en un hospital cubano, 1997-2000

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Andrés Cabrales Escobar

    2002-09-01

    Full Text Available Objetivo. Identificar qué factores de riesgo materno durante el embarazo se asocian a la incidencia de bajo peso al nacer (menos de 2 500 g. Métodos. Se diseñó un estudio de casos y testigos con 764 casos de nacimiento simple con un peso al nacer de menos de 2 500 g, y 1 437 testigos del Hospital Gineco-Obstétrico Provincial de Sancti Spíritus, Cuba, durante el cuatrienio de 1997-2000. Los datos se obtuvieron de historias clínicas, registros de partos y entrevistas personales con las madres. Se realizó un análisis con dos variables y se controlaron los posibles factores de confusión mediante regresión logística dicotómica con el programa SPSS. Se usó un modelo final de múltiples variables para identificar los factores de riesgo maternos asociados con el bajo peso al nacer. Resultados. El análisis con múltiples variables mostró una asociación significativa del bajo peso al nacer con la presencia de anemia en la madre cuando se detectó el embarazo, la sepsis urinaria durante el embarazo, el asma bronquial, un aumento de peso materno menor de 8 kg durante todo el embarazo, el hábito de fumar durante el mismo, antecedentes de bajo peso al nacer en partos anteriores, la presencia de hipertensión arterial desde antes de la gestación y la consulta prenatal extemporánea. Conclusiones. A partir de estos resultados se concluyó que, independientemente de la medida de impacto utilizada, es importante tratar de disminuir los factores de riesgo identificados a fin de reducir la incidencia del bajo peso al nacer en la provincia de Sancti Spíritus.

  19. Eventos de tiempo severo inducidos por el ENSO en la temporada invernal cubana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available ÉVÉNEMENTS MÉTÉOROLOGIQUES SÉVÈRES INDUITS PAR LES ENSO AU COURS DE LA PÉRIODE HIVERNALE À CUBA. La période hivernale à Cuba correspond généralement à la période sèche, au cours de laquelle, à l’inverse de ce qui se passe en été, on n’enregistre généralement pas de séquence pluviométrique sévère. Cependant, l’influence de l’ENSO peut activer des systèmes météorologiques de manière anormale pour des latitudes aussi basses. Il se produit alors relativement souvent des séquences météorologiques sévères de 24 à 48 heures de durée, avec l’avancée de lignes de grains, des pluies intenses, des tornades, de la grêle et des inondations dans les zones côtières. Ceci provoque des morts et de gros dégâts. Les climatologues reconnaissent l’ENSO comme la cause la plus importante de variabilité climatique inter-annuelle de la planète. Ils en décrivent et en prédisent les effets, comme les anomalies de précipitations ou de températures. Cependant on ne peut évaluer de manière plus précise ces conséquences qu’en étudiant les systèmes synoptiques induits par l’ENSO, qui sont responsables de ces excès. Cette étape est indispensable pour la mise en place d’un système d’alerte avancé requis par la Défense Civile. On montre, dans cet article, le rôle joué par le jet-stream subtropical, dans la formation de ces événements climatologiques sévères. Ainsi, l’étude des périodes hivernales affectées par un ENSO depuis 1957-58 jusqu’à 1996-97 a permis d’établir des situations types des niveaux de surface et supérieurs de l’atmosphère, associés à des événements sévères induits par l’ENSO. On présente aussi des exemples des conséquences des principaux événements. A l’aide de ces situations types, on a pu élaborer un système d’alerte avancée mis à la disposition de la Défense Civile et permettant d’effectuer des prévisions à 7 et à 10 jours. La temporada invernal cubana

  20. On the physical causes of ENSO events and the ITCZ's extreme latitudinal displacements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Njau, E.C.

    1988-08-01

    We predict the maximum latitudinal shifts of the Inter-Tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) over land masses due to variations in the surface or near-surface temperature fields. We also predict the mean locations of the ITCZ over oceans during northern hemisphere (NH) and southern hemisphere (SH) summers. All our predictions are shown to agree well with observations. Finally, on the basis of the association between the latitudinal location of the eastern pacific portion of the ITCZ and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events as well as some previous related work (Njau, 1985a; 1985b; 1986; 1987; 1988), we suggest possible physical causes of the ENSO events. (author). 39 refs, 1 fig., 2 tabs

  1. Impact of 1990-'95 ENSO/WEPO event on Indian monsoon rainfall

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gopinathan, C.K.

    The negative phase of the 1990-'95 El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the associated Warming of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean (WEPO) was the longest observed in the 113 years of its recorded history, compared to its normal duration of 1 to 2...

  2. Annual report to Congress 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-07-01

    Section 205 of the Department of Energy Organization Act of 1977 established the Energy Information Administration (EIA). One of the mandates in this legislation is that EIA prepare for Congress an annual report summarizing both activities and information collected and published. EIA`s major 1997 accomplishments are profiled in the body of this edition of the Annual Report to Congress. Appendix A contains abstracts of significant reports issued by EIA in 1997, and a chart of all titles and a list of all feature articles published during the year. Appendix B contains graphs of selected performance measures. Appendix C lists contact information for EIA subject matter specialists. Appendix D lists the major laws which form the basis of EIA`s legislative mandate.

  3. A Change Oriented Extension of EOF Analysis Applied to the 1996-1997 AVHRR Sea Surface Temperature Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Conradsen, Knut; Andersen, Ole Baltazar

    2002-01-01

    correlation analysis, and maximum autocorrelation factors (MAFs). The method described can be considered as an extension to EOF analysis that is specially tailored for change detection in spatial data since it first maximises differences in the data between two points in time and then maximises...... autocorrelation between neighbouring observations. The results show that the large scale ocean events associated with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related changes are concentrated in the first SST MAF/MAD mode and the two first SSH MAF/MAD modes. The MAD/MAF analysis also revealed a spatially...... correlated structure in the Western Mediterranean Sea that turned out to be related to a strong semi-annual variation in the SST for 1997 which was difficult to resolve from a traditional principal component analysis....

  4. Perspective on the northwestward shift of autumn tropical cyclogenesis locations over the western North Pacific from shifting ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Chundi; Zhang, Chengyang; Yang, Song; Chen, Dake; He, Shengping

    2017-11-01

    During the recent decades of satellite era, more tropical cyclogenesis locations (TCLs) were observed over the northwestern part of the western North Pacific (WNP), relative to the southeastern part, during the boreal autumn. This increase in TCLs over the northwestern WNP is largely attributed to the synergy of shifting El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the 1998 Pacific climate regime shift. Both central Pacific (CP) La Niña and CP El Niño have occurred more frequently since 1998, with only one eastern Pacific El Niño observed in autumn 2015. The change in the mean longitude of TCLs is closely linked to the ENSO diversity, whereas the change in the mean latitude is dominated by the warming of the WNP induced by an interdecadal tendency of CP La Niña-like events. The physical mechanisms responsible for this shifting ENSO-TCL linkage can be potentially explained by the tacit-and-mutual configurations between tropical upper-tropospheric trough and monsoon trough, on both interannual and interdecadal timescales, which is mainly due to the ENSO-related large-scale environment changes in ocean and atmosphere that modulate the WNP TCL.

  5. Finnish HLW disposal programme : site selection in 2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ryhsnen, Veijo

    1997-01-01

    This paper covers the technical concepts for final disposal in the Finnish geological conditions, the approach for site selection and implementation, the safety assessments and development of criteria, the environmental impact assessment, the licensing stages and acceptance, and the financial provisions, the project organization in 1997 - 2000. 2 refs., 9 figs

  6. Finnish HLW disposal programme : site selection in 2000

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ryhsnen, Veijo [Posiva Oy, Helsinki (Finland)

    1997-12-31

    This paper covers the technical concepts for final disposal in the Finnish geological conditions, the approach for site selection and implementation, the safety assessments and development of criteria, the environmental impact assessment, the licensing stages and acceptance, and the financial provisions, the project organization in 1997 - 2000. 2 refs., 9 figs.

  7. Evaluation of Rubella Immunity in Women before Marriage and Pregnancy in Isfahan During 1997-2000

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T Allameh

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: Congenital Rubella syndrome is a public health problem in many developing countries which has not yet been sufficiently put into account. There is an urgent need for collecting appropriate data to estimate the cost-effectiveness of a potential global Rubella control program. This study was conducted to determine susceptibility to Rubella in women who are going to marry or consult for pregnancy. Methods: This study began in 1997 and ended in 2000. The study was analytic descriptive and prospective. Eight hundred and thirty eight women who referred for premarriage tests or counselling for conception were included. According to antibody levels, test results were reported as immune and non-immune (susceptible for every individual. Results: Among 838 cases, 253 women (30.1% were non-immune (susceptible and 585 women (69.9% were immune. The educational status of the two groups were recorded. Analysis of data showed that the higher the educational level (62.2% for University degree holder, the lower the immunity against Rubella would be (75.2% for unfinished high school individuals. Furthermore, immunity in the younger group was higher (73.9% in <20 years than in the older group(61% in >30 years. Conclusion: More than one third of pre marriage and pre conceptional women were non-immune (susceptible to Rubella, so health providers should be aware of Rubella prevention and control in childbearing age via screening and vaccination. Immunity against Rubella can vary over time and the socioeconomic status is believed to play an important role in the level of immunity. Keywords: Congenital Rubella Syndrome, Rubella immunity, Rubella non-immunity.

  8. NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostics Discussion

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The ENSO Diagnostics Discussion (EDD) is issued by NOAA Climate Prediction Center each month on the Thursday between the 5th and 11th with few exceptions (major...

  9. Sensitivity of North American agriculture to ENSO-based climate scenarios and their socio-economic consequences: Modeling in an integrated assessment framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosenberg, N.J.; Izaurralde, R.C.; Brown, R.A.; Sands, R.D. [Pacific Northwest National Lab., Richland, WA (United States); Legler, D. [Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL (United States). Center for Ocean Atmosphere Prediction Studies; Srinivasan, R. [Texas A and M Univ., College Station, TX (United States). Blacklands Research Center; Tiscareno-Lopez, M.

    1997-09-01

    A group of Canadian, US and Mexican natural resource specialists, organized by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) under its North American Energy, Environment and Economy (NA3E) Program, has applied a simulation modeling approach to estimating the impact of ENSO-driven climatic variations on the productivity of major crops grown in the three countries. Methodological development is described and results of the simulations presented in this report. EPIC (the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator) was the agro-ecosystem model selected-for this study. EPIC uses a daily time step to simulate crop growth and yield, water use, runoff and soil erosion among other variables. The model was applied to a set of so-called representative farms parameterized through a specially-assembled Geographic Information System (GIS) to reflect the soils, topography, crop management and weather typical of the regions represented. Fifty one representative farms were developed for Canada, 66 for the US and 23 for Mexico. El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) scenarios for the EPIC simulations were created using the historic record of sea-surface temperature (SST) prevailing in the eastern tropical Pacific for the period October 1--September 30. Each year between 1960 and 1989 was thus assigned to an ENSO category or state. The ENSO states were defined as El Nino (EN, SST warmer than the long-term mean), Strong El Nino (SEN, much warmer), El Viejo (EV, cooler) and Neutral (within {+-}0.5 C of the long-term mean). Monthly means of temperature and precipitation were then calculated at each farm for the period 1960--1989 and the differences (or anomalies) between the means in Neutral years and EN, SEN and EV years determined. The average monthly anomalies for each ENSO state were then used to create new monthly statistics for each farm and ENSO-state combination. The adjusted monthly statistics characteristic of each ENSO state were then used to drive a stochastic-weather simulator

  10. Tree establishment along an ENSO experimental gradient in the Atacama desert

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Squeo, F.A.; Holmgren, M.; Jimenez, L.; Alban, L.; Reyes, J.; Gutierrez, J.R.

    2007-01-01

    Questions: (1) What are the roles of regional climate and plant growth rate for seedling establishment during ENSO rainy pulses along the western coast of South America? (2) What is the water threshold for tree seedling establishment in these arid ecosystems? Location: Atacama Desert, western South

  11. Impact of ENSO events on the Kruger National Park’s vegetation

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Wessels, Konrad J

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available the Kruger National Park shows the strong relationship between the ENSO episodes (droughts during El Niño and high rainfall during La Niña episodes), rainfall, grass production and satellite time-series data of vegetation activity. El Niño conditions have...

  12. Evolution of ENSO-related rainfall anomalies in Southeast Asia region and its relationship with atmosphere-ocean variations in Indo-Pacific sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Juneng, Liew; Tangang, Fredolin T. [Technology National University of Malaysia, Marine Science Program, School of Environmental and Natural Resource Sciences, Bangi Selangor (Malaysia)

    2005-09-01

    The Southeast Asia rainfall (SEAR) anomalies depend strongly on phases of El Nino (La Nina). Using an extended empirical orthogonal function (EEOF) analysis, it is shown that the dominant EEOF mode of SEAR anomalies evolves northeastward throughout a period from the summer when El Nino develops to spring the following year when the event weakens. This evolution is consistent with northeastward migration of the ENSO-related anomalous out going radiation field. During boreal summer (winter), the strong ENSO-related anomaly tends to reside in regions south (north) of the equator. The evolution of dominant mode of SEAR anomalies is in tandem with the evolution of ENSO-related sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The strengthening and weakening of ''boomerang-shaped'' SST in western Pacific, the changing sign of anomalous SST in Java Sea and the warming in Indian Ocean and South China Sea are all part of ENSO-related changes and all are linked to SEAR anomaly. The anomalous low-level circulation associated with ENSO-related SEAR anomaly indicates the strengthening and weakening of two off-equatorial anticyclones, one over the Southern Indian Ocean and the other over the western North Pacific. Together with patterns of El Nino minus La Nina composites of various fields, it is proposed that the northeastward evolution of SEAR anomaly is basically part of the large-scale eastward evolution of ENSO-related signal in the Indo-Pacific sector. The atmosphere-ocean interaction plays an important role in this evolution. (orig.)

  13. Solar cycle modulation of ENSO variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kodera, Kunihiko; Thiéblemont, Rémi

    2016-04-01

    Inspired by the work of Labitzke and van Loon on solar/QBO modulation in the stratosphere, Barnett (1989) conducted an investigation on the relationship between the the biannual component of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial eastern Pacific and the solar activity. He found that the amplitude of biannual component of the SST (BO) is modulated by the 11-year solar cycle: the amplitude of the BO is large during a period of low solar activity, but small during high solar activity. More than 25-years or two solar cycle has passed since his finding, but the relationship still holds. In order to get an insight into the mechanism of the solar modulation of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), here we have revisited this problem. Solar cycle modulation of the BO in the tropical SST is discernible since the end of the 19th centuries, but the amplitude modulation is particularly clear after 1960's. The composite analysis of the SST based on the amplitude of the BO during 1958-2012, indicates that the amplitude of BO is larger when the equatorial Pacific temperature anomalies are high in the central Pacific, but low in the eastern Pacific. Central Pacific anomalies extend to the northern hemisphere, while those in the central Pacific spread toward the southern hemisphere. In short, this anomalous SST pattern is similar to the El Niño modoki. In this connection, it should be noted that the solar signal in the tropical SST also exhibits a similar pattern. This suggests that the modulation of the ENSO variability by the solar cycle originates through a modulation of the El Niño Modoki rather than the canonical El Nino.

  14. Mesoscale Convective Complexes (MCCs) over the Indonesian Maritime Continent during the ENSO events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trismidianto; Satyawardhana, H.

    2018-05-01

    This study analyzed the mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs) over the Indonesian Maritime Continent (IMC) during the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events for the the15-year period from 2001 to 2015. The MCCs identified by infrared satellite imagery that obtained from the Himawari generation satellite data. This study has reported that the frequencies of the MCC occurrences at the El Niño and La Niña were higher than that of neutral conditions during DJF. Peak of MCC occurrences during DJF at La Niña and neutral condition is in February, while El Niño is in January. ENSO strongly affects the occurrence of MCC during the DJF season. The existences of the MCC were also accompanied by increased rainfall intensity at the locations of the MCC occurrences for all ENSO events. During JJA seasons, the MCC occurrences are always found during neutral conditions, El Niño and La Niña in Indian Ocean. MCC occurring during the JJA season on El Niño and neutral conditions averaged much longer than during the DJF season. In contrast, MCCs occurring in La Niña conditions during the JJA season are more rapidly extinct than during the DJF. It indicates that the influence of MCC during La Niña during the DJF season is stronger than during the JJA season.

  15. The contractual agreement State-EDF signature the 8. april 1997; Signature du contrat d`entreprise Etat-EDF le 8 avril 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1999-12-31

    The corporation agreement between the State and Electricite De France (EDF) was signed for the period of 1997-2000. With the agreement of the State, this new contract brings to EDF the ways to progress: becoming the reference public utilities in Europe and asserting its authority as an industrial corporation, leader of the electrical service in France and in international markets. The agreement precise the main orientations of the development plan and the economical policy. (A.L.B.)

  16. The contractual agreement State-EDF signature the 8. april 1997; Signature du contrat d`entreprise Etat-EDF le 8 avril 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-12-31

    The corporation agreement between the State and Electricite De France (EDF) was signed for the period of 1997-2000. With the agreement of the State, this new contract brings to EDF the ways to progress: becoming the reference public utilities in Europe and asserting its authority as an industrial corporation, leader of the electrical service in France and in international markets. The agreement precise the main orientations of the development plan and the economical policy. (A.L.B.)

  17. OHVT technology roadmap [2000

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bradley, R.A.

    2000-02-01

    The OHVT Technology Roadmap for 2000 presents the multiyear program plan of the U.S. DOE's Office of Heavy Vehicle Technologies (OHVT). It is an update of the 1997 plan, reflecting changes in regulations and ongoing discussions with DOE's heavy vehicle customers. The technical plan covers three classes of trucks: (1) class 7-8 (large, on-highway trucks); (2) class 3-6 (medium duty trucks); (3) class 1-2 (pickups, vans, and sport utility vehicles) as well as enabling and supporting technologies. The Roadmap documents program goals, schedules, and milestones.

  18. Influence of Mean State Changes on the Structure of ENSO in a Tropical Coupled GCM.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Codron, Francis; Vintzileos, Augustin; Sadourny, Robert

    2001-03-01

    This study examines the response of the climate simulated by the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace tropical Pacific coupled general circulation model to two changes in parameterization: an improved coupling scheme at the coast, and the introduction of a saturation mixing ratio limiter in the water vapor advection scheme, which improves the rainfall distribution over and around orography. The main effect of these modifications is the suppression of spurious upwelling off the South American coast in Northern Hemisphere summer. Coupled feedbacks then extend this warming over the whole basin in an El Niño-like structure, with a maximum at the equator and in the eastern part of the basin. The mean precipitation pattern widens and moves equatorward as the trade winds weaken.This warmer mean state leads to a doubling of the standard deviation of interannual SST anomalies, and to a longer ENSO period. The structure of the ENSO cycle also shifts from westward propagation in the original simulation to a standing oscillation. The simulation of El Niño thus improves when compared to recent observed events. The study of ENSO spatial structure and lagged correlations shows that these changes of El Niño characteristics are caused by both the increase of amplitude and the modification of the spatial structure of the wind stress response to SST anomalies.These results show that both the mean state and variability of the tropical ocean can be very sensitive to biases or forcings, even geographically localized. They may also give some insight into the mechanisms responsible for the changes in ENSO characteristics due to decadal variability or climate change.

  19. Corporate social responsibility as a business strategy: Stora Enso-WWF partnership project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tysiachniouk, M.S.

    2009-01-01

    The paper analyzes the strategic partnership between transnational corporation Stora-Enso and international nongovernmental organization NGO WWF as a business strategy that helps the company to adopt its business to the turbulent environment of the economy in transition. In this paper I draw from

  20. Year 2000 Computing Challenge: Leadership and Partnerships Results in Limited Rollover Disruptions

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2000-01-01

    Because of its urgent nature and the potentially devastating impact it could have had on critical government operations, in February 1997 we designated the Year 2000 problem a high-risk area for the federal government...

  1. A real-time ocean reanalyses intercomparison project in the context of tropical pacific observing system and ENSO monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Yan; Wen, C.; Kumar, A.; Balmaseda, M.; Fujii, Y.; Alves, O.; Martin, M.; Yang, X.; Vernieres, G.; Desportes, C.; Lee, T.; Ascione, I.; Gudgel, R.; Ishikawa, I.

    2017-12-01

    An ensemble of nine operational ocean reanalyses (ORAs) is now routinely collected, and is used to monitor the consistency across the tropical Pacific temperature analyses in real-time in support of ENSO monitoring, diagnostics, and prediction. The ensemble approach allows a more reliable estimate of the signal as well as an estimation of the noise among analyses. The real-time estimation of signal-to-noise ratio assists the prediction of ENSO. The ensemble approach also enables us to estimate the impact of the Tropical Pacific Observing System (TPOS) on the estimation of ENSO-related oceanic indicators. The ensemble mean is shown to have a better accuracy than individual ORAs, suggesting the ensemble approach is an effective tool to reduce uncertainties in temperature analysis for ENSO. The ensemble spread, as a measure of uncertainties in ORAs, is shown to be partially linked to the data counts of in situ observations. Despite the constraints by TPOS data, uncertainties in ORAs are still large in the northwestern tropical Pacific, in the SPCZ region, as well as in the central and northeastern tropical Pacific. The uncertainties in total temperature reduced significantly in 2015 due to the recovery of the TAO/TRITON array to approach the value before the TAO crisis in 2012. However, the uncertainties in anomalous temperature remained much higher than the pre-2012 value, probably due to uncertainties in the reference climatology. This highlights the importance of the long-term stability of the observing system for anomaly monitoring. The current data assimilation systems tend to constrain the solution very locally near the buoy sites, potentially damaging the larger-scale dynamical consistency. So there is an urgent need to improve data assimilation systems so that they can optimize the observation information from TPOS and contribute to improved ENSO prediction.

  2. High-Resolution Modeling of ENSO-Induced Precipitation in the Tropical Andes: Implications for Proxy Interpretation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiefer, J.; Karamperidou, C.

    2017-12-01

    Clastic sediment flux into high-elevation Andean lakes is controlled by glacial processes and soil erosion caused by high precipitation events, making these lakes suitable archives of past climate. To wit, sediment records from Laguna Pallcacocha in Ecuador have been interpreted as proxies of ENSO variability, owing to increased precipitation in the greater region during El Niño events. However, the location of the lake's watershed, the presence of glaciers, and the different impacts of ENSO on precipitation in the eastern vs western Andes have challenged the suitability of the Pallcacocha record as an ENSO proxy. Here, we employ WRF, a high-resolution regional mesoscale weather prediction model, to investigate the circulation dynamics, sources of moisture, and resulting precipitation response in the L. Pallcacocha region during different flavors of El Niño and La Niña events, and in the presence or absence of ice caps. In patricular, we investigate Eastern Pacific (EP), Central Pacific (CP), coastal El Niño, and La Niña events. We validate the model simulations against spatially interpolated station measurements and reanalysis data. We find that during EP events, moisture is primarily advected from the Pacific, whereas during CP events, moisture primarily originates from the Atlantic. More moisture is available during EP events, which implies higher precipitation rates. Furthermore, we find that precipitation during EP events is mostly non-convective in contrast to primarily convective precipitation during CP events. Finally, a synthesis of the sedimentary record and the EP:CP ratio of accumulated precipitation and specific humidity in the L. Pallcacocha region allows us to assess whether past changes in the relative frequency of the two ENSO flavors may have been recorded in paleoclimate archives in this region.

  3. Linkages between ENSO/PDO signals and precipitation, streamflow in China during the last 100 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouyang, R.; Liu, W.; Fu, G.; Liu, C.; Hu, L.; Wang, H.

    2014-09-01

    This paper investigates the single and combined impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on precipitation and streamflow in China over the last century. Results indicate that the precipitation and streamflow overall decrease during El Niño/PDO warm phase periods and increase during La Niña/PDO cool phase periods in the majority of China, although there are regional and seasonal differences. Precipitation and streamflow in the Yellow River basin, Yangtze River basin and Pearl River basin are more significantly influenced by El Niño and La Niña events than is precipitation and streamflow in the Songhua River basin, especially in October and November. Moreover, significant influence of ENSO on streamflow in the Yangtze River mainly occurs in summer and autumn while in the Pearl River influence primarily occurs in the winter and spring. The precipitation and streamflow are relatively greater in the warm PDO phase in the Songhua River basin and several parts of the Yellow River basin and relatively less in the Pearl River basin and most parts of Northwest China compared to those in the cool PDO phase, though there is little significance detected by Wilcoxon signed-rank test. When considering the combined influence of ENSO and PDO, the responses of precipitation/streamflow are shown to be opposite in northern China and southern China, with ENSO-related precipitation/streamflow enhanced in northern China and decreased in southern China during the warm PDO phases, and enhanced in southern China and decreased in northern China during the cool PDO phases. It is hoped that this study will be beneficial for understanding the precipitation/streamflow responses to the changing climate and will correspondingly provide valuable reference for water resources prediction and management across China.

  4. Decadal modulation of the ENSO-East Asian winter monsoon relationship by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geng, Xin; Zhang, Wenjun; Stuecker, Malte F.; Liu, Peng; Jin, Fei-Fei; Tan, Guirong

    2017-10-01

    This work investigates the decadal modulation of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) relationship by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). A stable ENSO-EAWM relationship is found during the positive AMO phase but not during the negative phase. While the impact of El Niño events on the EAWM does not depend on the AMO phase, a different picture is observed for La Niña events. The La Niña boreal winter season coincides with a strengthened EAWM during a positive AMO phase and a weakened EAWM during a negative AMO phase. We suggest that the AMO's modulating effect mainly comprises two pathways that influence ENSO's impact on the EAWM. On one hand, when La Niña coincides with a positive AMO, the warm SST anomalies over the western North Pacific (WNP) are amplified both in intensity and spatial extent, which favors strengthened WNP cyclonic anomalies and an enhanced EAWM. During La Niña with a negative AMO, only very weak SST anomalies occur over the WNP with reduced WNP cyclonic anomalies that are confined to the tropics, thus having little effect on the EAWM. On the other hand, an eastward-propagating Rossby wavetrain across the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia during a warm AMO phase strengthens the Siberian high and thus leads to a strengthened EAWM, while during a cold AMO phase the Siberian high is weakened, leading to a reduced EAWM. In contrast, El Niño and its associated atmospheric responses are relatively strong and stable, independent of the AMO phase. These results carry important implications to the seasonal-to-interannual predictability associated with ENSO.

  5. Mechanism of ENSO influence on the South Asian monsoon rainfall in global model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshi, Sneh; Kar, Sarat C.

    2018-02-01

    Coupled ocean atmosphere global climate models are increasingly being used for seasonal scale simulation of the South Asian monsoon. In these models, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) evolve as coupled air-sea interaction process. However, sensitivity experiments with various SST forcing can only be done in an atmosphere-only model. In this study, the Global Forecast System (GFS) model at T126 horizontal resolution has been used to examine the mechanism of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing on the monsoon circulation and rainfall. The model has been integrated (ensemble) with observed, climatological and ENSO SST forcing to document the mechanism on how the South Asian monsoon responds to basin-wide SST variations in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The model simulations indicate that the internal variability gets modulated by the SSTs with warming in the Pacific enhancing the ensemble spread over the monsoon region as compared to cooling conditions. Anomalous easterly wind anomalies cover the Indian region both at 850 and 200 hPa levels during El Niño years. The locations and intensity of Walker and Hadley circulations are altered due to ENSO SST forcing. These lead to reduction of monsoon rainfall over most parts of India during El Niño events compared to La Niña conditions. However, internally generated variability is a major source of uncertainty in the model-simulated climate.

  6. Influence of climatic teleconnections on the temporal isotopic ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    a close relation to the El Ni˜no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. The ENSO indices ... record seems to have been caused through an atmospheric mechanism. ... temperature prior and subsequent to the year 1997. ... in the reconstruction of past climate change and suggests possible influence of climatic teleconnec-.

  7. Impact of atmospheric model resolution on simulation of ENSO feedback processes: a coupled model study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hua, Lijuan; Chen, Lin; Rong, Xinyao; Su, Jingzhi; Wang, Lu; Li, Tim; Yu, Yongqiang

    2018-03-01

    This study examines El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related air-sea feedback processes in a coupled general circulation model (CGCM) to gauge model errors and pin down their sources in ENSO simulation. Three horizontal resolutions of the atmospheric component (T42, T63 and T106) of the CGCM are used to investigate how the simulated ENSO behaviors are affected by the resolution. We find that air-sea feedback processes in the three experiments mainly differ in terms of both thermodynamic and dynamic feedbacks. We also find that these processes are simulated more reasonably in the highest resolution version than in the other two lower resolution versions. The difference in the thermodynamic feedback arises from the difference in the shortwave-radiation (SW) feedback. Due to the severely (mildly) excessive cold tongue in the lower (higher) resolution version, the SW feedback is severely (mildly) underestimated. The main difference in the dynamic feedback processes lies in the thermocline feedback and the zonal-advection feedback, both of which are caused by the difference in the anomalous thermocline response to anomalous zonal wind stress. The difference in representing the anomalous thermocline response is attributed to the difference in meridional structure of zonal wind stress anomaly in the three simulations, which is linked to meridional resolution.

  8. Effects of ocean initial perturbation on developing phase of ENSO in a coupled seasonal prediction model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hyun-Chul; Kumar, Arun; Wang, Wanqiu

    2018-03-01

    Coupled prediction systems for seasonal and inter-annual variability in the tropical Pacific are initialized from ocean analyses. In ocean initial states, small scale perturbations are inevitably smoothed or distorted by the observational limits and data assimilation procedures, which tends to induce potential ocean initial errors for the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction. Here, the evolution and effects of ocean initial errors from the small scale perturbation on the developing phase of ENSO are investigated by an ensemble of coupled model predictions. Results show that the ocean initial errors at the thermocline in the western tropical Pacific grow rapidly to project on the first mode of equatorial Kelvin wave and propagate to the east along the thermocline. In boreal spring when the surface buoyancy flux weakens in the eastern tropical Pacific, the subsurface errors influence sea surface temperature variability and would account for the seasonal dependence of prediction skill in the NINO3 region. It is concluded that the ENSO prediction in the eastern tropical Pacific after boreal spring can be improved by increasing the observational accuracy of subsurface ocean initial states in the western tropical Pacific.

  9. Science and Technology Review, December 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Upadhye, R.

    1997-12-01

    Featured articles in this issue cover progress in these areas: Advancing Technologies and Applications in Nondestructive Evaluation; Atomic Engineering with Multilayers; Marrying Astrophysics with the Earth; Continuing Work in Breast Cancer Detection Technologies. Furthermore, this issue lists patents issued to and/or the awards received by Laboratory employees. It also includes an index of the contents of all the issues published in calendar year 1997.

  10. Tendencias de mortalidad por traumatismos y envenenamientos en adolescentes: México, 1979-1997 Adolescent injury and poisoning mortality trends: Mexico, 1979-1997

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alfredo Celis

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Describir las causas externas de la mortalidad por traumatismos y envenenamientos, así como la tendencia que estas causas han mostrado entre adolescentes en México, de 1979 a 1997. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Para la realización de este estudio descriptivo de la mortalidad se utilizaron las bases de datos de mortalidad registrada en México de 1979 a 1997. Los datos son recabados, codificados y capturados por el Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Geografía e Informática, y se obtuvieron a través del Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública. Los datos fueron tabulados durante el último semestre de 2000, en Jalisco, en la Unidad de Investigación Epidemiológica y en Servicios de Salud del Adolescente del Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social. RESULTADOS: Los traumatismos y envenenamientos ocuparon el primer lugar en la mortalidad del grupo adolescente (tasa de 13.35/100 000 con una tendencia descendente de -41.4% durante el periodo 1979-1997, no obstante el incremento de homicidios y suicidios (9.5% y 104.0% respectivamente. Los mecanismos más frecuentes fueron los vehículos de tráfico de motor, las armas de fuego, las intoxicaciones, las sofocaciones y las asfixias por inmersión. CONCLUSIONES: Los traumatismos y envenenamientos que experimenta la población de países en desarrollo muestran frecuencias diferentes a lo registrado en los más desarrollados, haciendo necesario el estudio de los mismos para implantar las medidas preventivas acordes con las condiciones socioculturales y ambientales de cada entorno.OBJECTIVE: To describe the external causes of death and mortality trends due to injuries and poisoning in Mexican adolescents, from 1979 to 1997. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This is a descriptive study of deaths occurring in Mexico from 1979 to 1997. Data were abstracted, coded, and entered in electronic format, by Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Geografía e Informática (National Institute of Statistics, Geography, and Informatics

  11. Modulation of the SSTA decadal variation on ENSO events and relationships of SSTA With LOD,SOI, etc

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, D. C.; Zhou, Y. H.; Liao, X. H.

    2007-01-01

    Interannual and decadal components of the length of day (LOD), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Sea Surface Temperature anomaly (SSTA) in Nino regions are extracted by band-pass filtering, and used for research of the modulation of the SSTA on the ENSO events. Results show that besides the interannual components, the decadal components in SSTA have strong impacts on monitoring and representing of the ENSO events. When the ENSO events are strong, the modulation of the decadal components of the SSTA tends to prolong the life-time of the events and enlarge the extreme anomalies of the SST, while the ENSO events, which are so weak that they can not be detected by the interannual components of the SSTA, can also be detected with the help of the modulation of the SSTA decadal components. The study further draws attention to the relationships of the SSTA interannual and decadal components with those of LOD, SOI, both of the sea level pressure anomalies (SLPA) and the trade wind anomalies (TWA) in tropic Pacific, and also with those of the axial components of the atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) and oceanic angular momentum (OAM). Results of the squared coherence and coherent phases among them reveal close connections with the SSTA and almost all of the parameters mentioned above on the interannual time scales, while on the decadal time scale significant connections are among the SSTA and SOI, SLPA, TWA, ?3w and ?3w+v as well, and slight weaker connections between the SSTA and LOD, ?3pib and ?3bp

  12. Avatud õpe ja kaugkoolitus : sild üheksakümnendatest aastatest aastasse 2000 / Sirje Virkus

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Virkus, Sirje, 1956-

    1997-01-01

    23.-25- juunini 1997. a. Budapesti Tehnikaülikoolis toimunud Euroopa Kaugkoolitusvõrgu konverentsist teemal "Avatud õpe ja kaugkoolitus : sild üheksakümnendatest aastatest aastasse 2000 : saavutused ja tulevikuväljavaated"

  13. Volcanic Tephra ejected in south eastern Asia is the sole cause of all historic ENSO events. This natural aerosol plume has been intensified by an anthropogenic plume in the same region in recent decades which has intensified some ENSO events and altered the Southern Oscillation Index characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potts, K. A.

    2017-12-01

    ENSO events are the most significant perturbation of the climate system. Previous attempts to link ENSO with volcanic eruptions typically failed because only large eruptions across the globe which eject tephra into the stratosphere were considered. I analyse all volcanic eruptions in South Eastern (SE) Asia (10ºS to 10ºN and from 90ºE to 160ºE) the most volcanically active area in the world with over 23% of all eruptions in the Global Volcanism Program database occurring here and with 5 volcanoes stated to have erupted nearly continuously for 30 years. SE Asia is also the region where the convective arm of the thermally direct Walker Circulation occurs driven by the intense equatorial solar radiation which creates the high surface temperature. The volcanic tephra plume intercepts some of the solar radiation by absorption/reflection which cools the surface and heats the atmosphere creating a temperature inversion compared to periods without the plume. This reduces convection and causes the Walker Cell and Trade Winds to weaken. This reduced wind speed causes the central Pacific Ocean to warm which creates convection there which further weakens the Walker Cell. With the reduced wind stress the western Pacific warm pool migrates east. This creates an ENSO event which continues until the tephra plume reduces, typically when the SE Asian monsoon commences, and convection is re-established over SE Asia and the Pacific warm pool migrates back to the west. Correlations of SE Asian tephra and the ENSO indices are typically over 0.80 at p indices. If two events A and B correlate 5 options are available: 1. A causes B; 2. B causes A; 3. C, another event, causes A &B simultaneously; 4. It's a coincidence; and 5. The relationship is complex with feedback. The volcanic correlations only allow options 1 or 4 as ENSO cannot cause volcanoes to erupt and are backed up by several independent satellite datasets. I conclude volcanic and anthropogenic aerosols over SE Asia are the

  14. OHVT technology roadmap[2000]; TOPICAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bradley, R.A.

    2000-01-01

    The OHVT Technology Roadmap for 2000 presents the multiyear program plan of the U.S. DOE's Office of Heavy Vehicle Technologies (OHVT). It is an update of the 1997 plan, reflecting changes in regulations and ongoing discussions with DOE's heavy vehicle customers. The technical plan covers three classes of trucks: (1) class 7-8 (large, on-highway trucks); (2) class 3-6 (medium duty trucks); (3) class 1-2 (pickups, vans, and sport utility vehicles) as well as enabling and supporting technologies. The Roadmap documents program goals, schedules, and milestones

  15. Fractured reservoir discrete feature network technologies. Annual report, March 7, 1996--February 28, 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dershowitz, W.S.; La Pointe, P.R.; Einstein, H.H.; Ivanova, V.

    1998-01-01

    This report describes progress on the project, {open_quotes}Fractured Reservoir Discrete Feature Network Technologies{close_quotes} during the period March 7, 1996 to February 28, 1997. The report presents summaries of technology development for the following research areas: (1) development of hierarchical fracture models, (2) fractured reservoir compartmentalization and tributary volume, (3) fractured reservoir data analysis, and (4) integration of fractured reservoir data and production technologies. In addition, the report provides information on project status, publications submitted, data collection activities, and technology transfer through the world wide web (WWW). Research on hierarchical fracture models included geological, mathematical, and computer code development. The project built a foundation of quantitative, geological and geometrical information about the regional geology of the Permian Basin, including detailed information on the lithology, stratigraphy, and fracturing of Permian rocks in the project study area (Tracts 17 and 49 in the Yates field). Based on the accumulated knowledge of regional and local geology, project team members started the interpretation of fracture genesis mechanisms and the conceptual modeling of the fracture system in the study area. Research on fractured reservoir compartmentalization included basic research, technology development, and application of compartmentalized reservoir analyses for the project study site. Procedures were developed to analyze compartmentalization, tributary drainage volume, and reservoir matrix block size. These algorithms were implemented as a Windows 95 compartmentalization code, FraCluster.

  16. Effects of 1997-1998 El Nino on Tropospheric Ozone and Water Vapor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandra, S.; Ziemke, J. R.; Min, W.; Read, W. G.

    1998-01-01

    This paper analyzes the impact of the 1997-1998 El Nino on tropospheric column ozone and tropospheric water vapor derived respectively from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) on Earth Probe and the Microwave Limb Scanning instrument on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite. The 1997-1998 El Nino, characterized by an anomalous increase in sea-surface temperature (SST) across the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean, is one of the strongest El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events of the century, comparable in magnitude to the 1982-1983 episode. The major impact of the SST change has been the shift in the convection pattern from the western to the eastern Pacific affecting the response of rain-producing cumulonimbus. As a result, there has been a significant increase in rainfall over the eastern Pacific and a decrease over the western Pacific and Indonesia. The dryness in the Indonesian region has contributed to large-scale burning by uncontrolled wildfires in the tropical rainforests of Sumatra and Borneo. Our study shows that tropospheric column ozone decreased by 4-8 Dobson units (DU) in the eastern Pacific and increased by about 10-20 DU in the western Pacific largely as a result of the eastward shift of the tropical convective activity as inferred from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data. The effect of this shift is also evident in the upper tropospheric water vapor mixing ratio which varies inversely as ozone (O3). These conclusions are qualitatively consistent with the changes in atmospheric circulation derived from zonal and vertical wind data obtained from the Goddard Earth Observing System data assimilation analyses. The changes in tropospheric column O3 during the course of the 1997-1998 El Nino appear to be caused by a combination of large-scale circulation processes associated with the shift in the tropical convection pattern and surface/boundary layer processes associated with

  17. Climate, ENSO and 'Black Swans' over the Last Millennium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, L. G.; Mosley-Thompson, E.; Davis, M. E.; Kenny, D. V.; Lin, P. N.

    2014-12-01

    Tropical rainfall patterns influence the lives of billions of people both north and south of the Equator. Evidence of major ENSO events such as droughts is often recorded in the oxygen isotopic ratios and aerosol concentrations in tropical ice cores. Here we examine unusual events recorded in three ice cores, two (Quelccaya and Coropuna) in the Southern Hemisphere on the Peruvian Altiplano and the third (Dasuopu) located 22,000 km away on the southern edge of the Tibetan Plateau at the top of the Himalayas. These records suggest that the unique lower and middle tropospheric air flow over chloride (Cl-) and fluoride (F-) enriched areas upwind of the sites during ENSO events leads to enhanced deposition of these species on these glaciers. Linkages are demonstrated between ice-core chemistry and drought indicators, changes in lake levels, and ENSO and monsoon indices. Two unusual events, in the late 18th and mid-14th Centuries, are marked by abnormally high concentrations of F- and Cl- in at least two of the ice core records. All three records document a drought from 1789 to 1800 CE in which increases in these anionic concentrations reflect the abundance of continental atmospheric dust derived from arid regions upwind of the core sites. The earlier event, apparent only in the Quelccaya and Dasuopu ice cores, begins abruptly in 1343 and tapers off by 1375. The interaction between high frequency El Niños and low frequency shifts in the inter-tropical convergence zone may have resulted in these unusually severe and extended droughts. These "Black Swan" events correspond to historically documented, devastating population disruptions that were in part climate related. The 1789 to 1800 CE event was concurrent with the Doji Bara famine resulting from extended droughts that led to over 600,000 deaths in central India by 1792. Similarly extensive climate disruptions are documented in Central and South America. The mid-14th Century drought is concomitant with major monsoon

  18. Southern Hemisphere Extratropical Cyclones and their Relationship with ENSO in springtime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reboita, M. S.; Ambrizzi, T.; Da Rocha, R.

    2013-05-01

    Extratropical cyclones occurrence is associated with the teleconnection mechanisms that produce climate variability. Among these mechanisms we have El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Some works have indicated that during the ENSO positive phase there are more cyclogenetic conditions in some parts of the globe as the southwest of South Atlantic Ocean. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to verify if the extratropical cyclones number and location are altered in the different ENSO phases in the austral spring over the Southern Hemisphere (SH). The Melbourne University automatic tracking scheme was used to determine the cyclone climatology from 1980 to 2012. All cyclones that appear with lifetime higher or equal to 24 hours in the sea level pressure data from National Centers for Environment Prediction reanalysis I were included in the climatology. El Niño (EN), La Niña (LN) and Neutral (N) years were identified through the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) from Climate Prediction Center/NOAA. The average number of cyclones in the spring over the SH is similar in the EN (200), N (184) and LN (197) episodes. By latitude bands, during EN episodes the cyclones occurrence reduces in 16% between 70-60 degrees and increases in ~15% between 80-70 and 50-40 degrees. On the other hand, during the LN episodes, the cyclones are 17% more frequent in 50-60 degrees and 22% less frequent in 30-20 degrees. One more detailed analysis of the cyclones trajectory density (that is a statistic product of the tracking algorithm) shows that in the South Atlantic Ocean, near the southeast of South America, the number of cyclones in EN years is higher than in the neutral period and lower than in the LN years. In the Indian Ocean, the EN year is characterized by a cyclones reduction in the west and east sector, near the continents. In the Pacific Ocean, the region southward the New Zealand presents more cyclones occurrence in EN years.

  19. The International Energy Workshop: results of the 1997 poll

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schrattenholzer, L.

    1998-01-01

    The International Energy Workshop consists of a network of analysts from across the world concerned with international energy issues. Since 1981, the IEW has been organising an annual poll of projections of crude oil prices, economic growth, primary energy consumption and production, the energy trade and, beginning in the early 1990s, energy-related carbon emissions. Submitted projections are for 1990-2020 in ten-year steps; recently, 2050 and 2100 have been added, to cater for climate change scenarios. The IEW poll encourages the submission of responses for five world regions. This paper presents a summary of findings in the 1997 poll. Highlights include the following. The poll medians for 1997 suggest a crude oil price, in 1990 purchasing power, of $20/b in 2000, $27/b in 2010 and $28/b in 2020. Unlike for 2000 and 2010, the 2020 figure diverges considerably from that of the 1996 poll, which registered $39/b. Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union are not expected to be major global oil exporters until 2010 at least, while China will become a net importer in 2000. OPEC will meet about half global demand by 2020. World primary energy consumption is expected to increase from 8,500 mtoe in 1990 to 13,000 mtoe in 2020. In this period, oil will lose almost seven percentage points of market share, while natural gas will almost double its absolute contribution. OPEC's natural gas exports are projected to rise from 55 mtoe in 1990 to 300 mtoe in 2020. Finally, the paper compares different projections for decarbonisation, that is, the decline rates of the carbon intensity of GDP and of primary energy supply. It notes that, according to business-as-usual projections, the OECD is way off target in meeting the emissions-reductions goals of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

  20. Wintering bald eagle trends in northern Arizona, 1975-2000

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teryl G. Grubb

    2003-01-01

    Between 1975 and 2000, 4,525 sightings of wintering bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) were recorded at Mormon Lake in northern Arizona. Numbers of wintering eagles fluctuated little in the 20 years from 1975 through 1994 (5.5 ± 3.0 mean sightings per day). However, during the winters of 1995 through 1997 local record highs of 59 to 118 eagles...

  1. Improved ensemble-mean forecast skills of ENSO events by a zero-mean stochastic model-error model of an intermediate coupled model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, F.; Zhu, J.

    2015-12-01

    To perform an ensemble-based ENSO probabilistic forecast, the crucial issue is to design a reliable ensemble prediction strategy that should include the major uncertainties of a forecast system. In this study, we developed a new general ensemble perturbation technique to improve the ensemble-mean predictive skill of forecasting ENSO using an intermediate coupled model (ICM). The model uncertainties are first estimated and analyzed from EnKF analysis results through assimilating observed SST. Then, based on the pre-analyzed properties of the model errors, a zero-mean stochastic model-error model is developed to mainly represent the model uncertainties induced by some important physical processes missed in the coupled model (i.e., stochastic atmospheric forcing/MJO, extra-tropical cooling and warming, Indian Ocean Dipole mode, etc.). Each member of an ensemble forecast is perturbed by the stochastic model-error model at each step during the 12-month forecast process, and the stochastical perturbations are added into the modeled physical fields to mimic the presence of these high-frequency stochastic noises and model biases and their effect on the predictability of the coupled system. The impacts of stochastic model-error perturbations on ENSO deterministic predictions are examined by performing two sets of 21-yr retrospective forecast experiments. The two forecast schemes are differentiated by whether they considered the model stochastic perturbations, with both initialized by the ensemble-mean analysis states from EnKF. The comparison results suggest that the stochastic model-error perturbations have significant and positive impacts on improving the ensemble-mean prediction skills during the entire 12-month forecast process. Because the nonlinear feature of the coupled model can induce the nonlinear growth of the added stochastic model errors with model integration, especially through the nonlinear heating mechanism with the vertical advection term of the model, the

  2. Decreasing rate of multiple treatment modifications among individuals who initiated antiretroviral therapy in 1997-2009 in the Danish HIV Cohort Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Helleberg, Marie; Kronborg, Gitte; Larsen, Carsten S

    2012-01-01

    BACKGROUND: We hypothesized that rates and reasons for treatment modifications have changed since the implementation of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) due to improvements in therapy. METHODS: From a nationwide population-based cohort study we identified all HIV-1 infected adults who...... initiated cART in Denmark 1997-2009 and were followed (3)1 year. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) and reasons for treatment modifications were estimated and compared between patients, who initiated treatment in 1997-1999, 2000-2004 and 2005-2009. Rates of discontinuation of individual antiretroviral drugs (ARVs......) were evaluated. RESULTS: 3,107 patients were followed median 7.3 years (IQR 3.8-10.8). Rates of first treatment modification ≤1 year after cART initiation did not change (IRR 0.88 (95% CI 0.78-1.01) and 1.03 (95% CI 0.90-1.18) in 2000-2004 and 2005-2009 compared to 1997-1999). Rates of multiple...

  3. On the unstable ENSO-Western North Pacific Monsoon relation during the 20th Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vega Martín, Inmaculada; Gallego Puyol, David; Ribera Rodriguez, Pedro; Gómez Delgado, Francisco de Paula; Peña-Ortiz, Cristina

    2017-04-01

    The concept of the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon (WNPSM) appeared for the first time in 1987. Unlike the Indian Summer Monsoon and the East Asian summer monsoon, the WNPSM is an oceanic monsoon driven essentially by the meridional gradient of sea surface temperature. Its circulation is characterized by a northwest-southeast oriented monsoon trough with intense precipitation and low-level southwesterlies and upper-tropospheric easterlies in the region [100°-130° E, 5°-15°N]. Although this monsoon is mainly oceanic, it modulates the precipitation of densely populated areas such as the Philippines. To date, the WNPSM has been quantified by the so-called Western North Pacific Monsoon Index (WNPMI), an index based on wind anomalies over large domains of the Western Pacific. The requirement of continuous observed wind over remote oceanic areas to compute the WNPMI has limited its availability to the 1949-2014 period. In this work we have extended the index by almost 100 years by using historical observations of wind direction taken aboard ships. Our Western North Pacific Directional Index (WNPDI), is defined as the sum of the persistence of the low-level westerly winds in [5°-15°N, 100°-130°E] and easterly winds in [20°-30°N, 110°-140°E]. The new WNPDI index is highly correlated to the existent WNPMI for the concurrent period (1948-2014). (r=+0.88, p<0.01), indicating that the new approach based in the use of wind direction alone (a variable that can be considered instrumental even before the 20th Century), captures most of the monsoonal signal. Previous studies found that, during the second part of the 20th Century the WNPSM exhibited two basic characteristics: first a large interannual variability and second, a significant relation between the WNPSM and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a way in which a strong (weak) WNPSM tends to occur during the El Niño (La Niña) developing year or/and La Niña (El Niño) decaying year. The analysis of

  4. The contractual agreement State-EDF signature the 8. april 1997

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-01-01

    The corporation agreement between the State and Electricite De France (EDF) was signed for the period of 1997-2000. With the agreement of the State, this new contract brings to EDF the ways to progress: becoming the reference public utilities in Europe and asserting its authority as an industrial corporation, leader of the electrical service in France and in international markets. The agreement precise the main orientations of the development plan and the economical policy. (A.L.B.)

  5. Dossier 'thermal regulation 2000'. Reconciling building and environment; Dossier RT 2000. Reconcilier batiment et environnement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grumel, N.

    2001-04-01

    The works that led to the setup of the new French thermal regulation (TR 2000) for buildings started in 1997 and were carried out by the general direction of urbanism, accommodation and construction (DGUHC) of the ministry of equipment, transport and accommodation, by the agency of environment and energy mastery (Ademe) and by the scientific and technical committee of building trade. The different steps of buildings construction have been reviewed with specialists, industrialists, energy suppliers, design offices, federation of companies and other professional organisms, in order to reduce the energy consumption of buildings and their impact on the environment. The new regulation is based on the determination of the 'C coefficient', the conventional energy consumption coefficient, and of reference values for the six steps of the elaboration of a construction project. The TR 2000 will be enforced in June 1, 2001. Today, the air conditioning is not concerned by the TR 2000, but will be included in 2003. This dossier presents the different aspects of the new thermal regulation. (J.S.)

  6. Plan 2000. The electricity companies plan for electricity conservation in the millennium; Plan 2000. Elselskabernes plan for elbesparelser i det nye aartusinde

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1999-12-01

    Plan 2000 presents an account of the activities in the years 1997 and 1998 and a budget for the year 2000 and forwards. The report includes all 82 electricity companies in Denmark. Furthermore a number of particular analyses of relevance to electricity conservation are presented. All electricity companies work to promote electricity conservation. All consumption sizes and sections are covered. The activities in the individual companies are supported by a number of common campaigns. In Plan 2000 those activities are presented and the economics is analysed. The activities in the first year of the plan are expected to result in conservation corresponding 4% of the present electricity consumption. 80% of the conservation comes from activities, which are measurable. Technical counselling of trade customers is one of the essential activities. Others are e.g. telephone counselling, theme arrangements and teaching of pupils. (EHS)

  7. Contrasting terrestrial carbon cycle responses to the 1997/98 and 2015/16 extreme El Niño events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jun; Zeng, Ning; Wang, Meirong; Jiang, Fei; Wang, Hengmao; Jiang, Ziqiang

    2018-01-01

    Large interannual atmospheric CO2 variability is dominated by the response of the terrestrial biosphere to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, the behavior of terrestrial ecosystems differs during different El Niños in terms of patterns and biological processes. Here, we comprehensively compare two extreme El Niños (2015/16 and 1997/98) in the context of a multi-event composite El Niño. We find large differences in the terrestrial carbon cycle responses, even though the two events were of similar magnitude.More specifically, we find that the global-scale land-atmosphere carbon flux (FTA) anomaly during the 1997/98 El Niño was 1.64 Pg C yr-1, but half that quantity during the 2015/16 El Niño (at 0.73 Pg C yr-1). Moreover, FTA showed no obvious lagged response during the 2015/16 El Niño, in contrast to that during 1997/98. Separating the global flux by geographical regions, we find that the fluxes in the tropics and extratropical Northern Hemisphere were 1.70 and -0.05 Pg C yr-1 during 1997/98, respectively. During 2015/16, they were 1.12 and -0.52 Pg C yr-1, respectively. Analysis of the mechanism shows that, in the tropics, the widespread drier and warmer conditions caused a decrease in gross primary productivity (GPP; -0.73 Pg C yr-1) and an increase in terrestrial ecosystem respiration (TER; 0.62 Pg C yr-1) during the 1997/98 El Niño. In contrast, anomalously wet conditions occurred in the Sahel and East Africa during 2015/16, which caused an increase in GPP, compensating for its reduction in other tropical regions. As a result, the total 2015/16 tropical GPP and TER anomalies were -0.03 and 0.95 Pg C yr-1. GPP dominance during 1997/98 and TER dominance during 2015/16 accounted for the phase difference in their FTA. In the extratropical Northern Hemisphere, the large difference occurred because temperatures over Eurasia were warmer during the 2015/16, as compared with the cooling seen during the 1997/98 and the composite El Niño. These warmer

  8. Aspects of extratropical synoptic-scale processes in opposing ENSO phases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwierz, C.; Wernli, H.; Hess, D.

    2003-04-01

    Energy and momentum provided by anomalous tropical heating/cooling affect the circulation on the global scale. Pacific Sea surface temperature anomalies strongly force local conditions in the equatorial Pacific, but are also known to change the climate in the extratropics, particularly over the American continent. The impact on more remote areas such as the Atlantic-European region is less clear. There the observed effects in both analyses and model studies show dependence on the resolution of the model/data, as well as on the time scales under consideration (Merkel and Latif, 2002; Compo et al., 2001). Most of the previous studies focus on larger-scale processes and seasonal time scales (or longer). Here we concentrate on the impact of opposing ENSO phases on extratropical synoptic-scale dynamics. The investigation is undertaken for the Niño/Niña events of 1972/3 and 1973/4 respectively, for 5 winter months (NDJFM) using ECMWF ERA40 data with 1o× 1o horizontal resolution and 60 vertical levels. The examination of the resulting differences in terms of standard dynamical fields (temperature, sea level pressure, precipitation, geopotential) is complemented with additional diagnostic fields (e.g. potential vorticity (PV), anti-/cyclone tracks and frequencies, PV streamers/cut-offs, blocking) in an attempt to gain more insight into aspects of extratropical synoptic-scale dynamical processes associated with ENSO SST anomalies.

  9. The Halden Reactor Project workshop on HAMMLAB 2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sebok, Angelia L.; Grini, Rolf-Einar; Larsen, Marit; Ness, Eyvind; Soerensen, Aimar

    1998-01-01

    A workshop on HAMMLAB 2000 was organised in Halden, May 26-27, 1997. The purpose of the workshop was to discuss and make recommendations on requirements for the design of HAMMLAB 2000 and to discuss the future research agenda. The workshop began with several presentations summarising the status of the current HAMMLAB 2000 project. Three invited speakers with expertise in human-machine laboratories and simulators delivered presentations of their experiences. Later, the workshop was divided into five working groups that discussed the following issues in parallel: (1) Technical Studies, Research Agenda; (2) Human Factors Research Agenda; (3) Data Collection; (4) Synergy with Other Industries; (5) Virtual Reality. Each group produced specific recommendations that were summarised by the group's facilitator in a joint session of the workshop. This report summarises the presentation of the invited speakers, and the discussions and recommendations of the individual working groups. (author)

  10. Improvements of ENSO-monsoon relationship in CMIP5 models through statistical downscaling over India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akhter, J.; Das, L.; Deb, A.

    2017-12-01

    Present study has assessed the skills of global climate models (GCMS) from coupled model inter-comparison project phase five (CMIP5) in simulating ENSO-monsoon relationships over seven homogeneous zones of India. Observational sea surface temperature (SST) data has revealed that there has been a significant negative correlation between zonal precipitation and Nino 3.4 index over North Mountainous India, North West India, North Central India, West Peninsular India and South Peninsular India. First and third principal component (PC) of zonal precipitation explaining 44.4% and 14.2% variance respectively has also shown significant anti-correlation with Nino 3.4. Analysis with CMIP5 models revealed that majority of GCMs have failed to reproduce both magnitude and phase of such relationships mainly due to poor simulation of Nino 3.4 index. Therefore, an attempt has been made to improve the results through empirical orthogonal function (EOF) based statistical downscaling of CMIP5 GCMs. To downscale Nino 3.4 index, an optimal predictor combination of PCs extracted from EOF fields of large scale GCM predictors like Geo-potential height, u and v wind, Specific and relative humidity and air temperature at pressure levels 500, 850 and 1000 hpa, mean sea level pressure and atmospheric vapor content has been utilized. Results indicated improvements of downscaled CMIP5 models in simulating ENSO-monsoon relationship for zone wise precipitation. Multi-model ensemble (MME) of downscaled GCMs has better skill than individuals GCM. Therefore, downscaled MME may be used more reliably to investigate future ENSO-monsoon relationship under various warming scenarios

  11. A study of Solar-Enso correlation with southern Brazil tree ring index (1955- 1991)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rigozo, N.; Nordemann, D.; Vieira, L.; Echer, E.

    The effects of solar activity and El Niño-Southern Oscillation on tree growth in Southern Brazil were studied by correlation analysis. Trees for this study were native Araucaria (Araucaria Angustifolia)from four locations in Rio Grande do Sul State, in Southern Brazil: Canela (29o18`S, 50o51`W, 790 m asl), Nova Petropolis (29o2`S, 51o10`W, 579 m asl), Sao Francisco de Paula (29o25`S, 50o24`W, 930 m asl) and Sao Martinho da Serra (29o30`S, 53o53`W, 484 m asl). From these four sites, an average tree ring Index for this region was derived, for the period 1955-1991. Linear correlations were made on annual and 10 year running averages of this tree ring Index, of sunspot number Rz and SOI. For annual averages, the correlation coefficients were low, and the multiple regression between tree ring and SOI and Rz indicates that 20% of the variance in tree rings was explained by solar activity and ENSO variability. However, when the 10 year running averages correlations were made, the coefficient correlations were much higher. A clear anticorrelation is observed between SOI and Index (r=-0.81) whereas Rz and Index show a positive correlation (r=0.67). The multiple regression of 10 year running averages indicates that 76% of the variance in tree ring INdex was explained by solar activity and ENSO. These results indicate that the effects of solar activity and ENSO on tree rings are better seen on long timescales.

  12. Analysis of the Effects of ENSO and Atmospheric Rivers on Precipitation in Los Angeles County

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santacruz, A.; Lamb, K.

    2017-12-01

    The Winter 2016-2017 season in California was marked by substantial amounts of precipitation; this resulted in critically-low reservoirs filling up and the removal of most of California from drought status. The year prior was characterized by one of the strongest El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, though it did not produce nearly enough precipitation as the 2016-2017 season. The major contributors to the increased rainfall during the 2016-2017 season were climactic phenomenon known as atmospheric rivers (ARs), which transport water vapor through the atmosphere in narrow bands, and are known to produce extreme rain events. Determining the exact timing, landfall areas, and total precipitation amounts of ARs is currently of great interest; a recent study showed that extreme weather events are likely to increase in California in the coming years, which motivates research into how phenomenon such as ENSO and ARs play a role. Using long-term daily rain gauge data provided by the Los Angeles County Department of Public Works, we compute the precipitation volume and storm count for various locations in Los Angeles County and identify anomalies. These data will then be compared with the occurrence and intensity of AR and ENSO events by using NOAA's NOI and ESRL AR data. The results can be used to provide a better grasp of extreme climactic patterns and their effects on the amount of precipitation in the region.

  13. The impact of combined ENSO and PDO on the PNA climate: a 1,000-year climate modeling study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, B. [Environment Canada, Climate Data and Analysis Section, Climate Research Division, Toronto, ON (Canada); Zwiers, F.W. [Environment Canada, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Climate Research Division, Victoria (Canada)

    2007-12-15

    This study analyzes the atmospheric response to the combined Pacific interannual ENSO and decadal-interdecadal PDO variability, with a focus on the Pacific-North American (PNA) sector, using a 1,000-year long integration of the Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) coupled climate model. Both the tropospheric circulation and the North American temperature suggest an enhanced PNA-like climate response and impacts on North America when ENSO and PDO variability are in phase. The anomalies of the centers of action for the PNA-like pattern are significantly different from zero and the anomaly pattern is field significant. In association with the stationary wave anomalies, large stationary wave activity fluxes appear in the mid-high latitudes originating from the North Pacific and flowing downstream toward North America. There are significant Rossby wave source anomalies in the extratropical North Pacific and in the subtropical North Pacific. In addition, the axis of the Pacific storm track shifts southward with the positive PNA. Atmospheric heating anomalies associated with ENSO variability are confined primarily to the tropics. There is an anomalous heating center over the northeast Pacific, together with anomalies with the same polarity in the tropical Pacific, for the PDO variability. The in-phase combination of ENSO and PDO would in turn provide anomalous atmospheric energy transports towards North America from both the Tropical Pacific and the North Pacific, which tends to favor the occurrence of stationary wave anomalies and would lead to a PNA-like wave anomaly structure. The modeling results also confirm our analysis based on the observational record in the twentieth century. (orig.)

  14. Two ENSO episodes with reversed impacts on the regional precipitation of the northeastern South America Dos eventos ENSO con impactos opuestos sobre la precipitación regional en el noreste de Sudamérica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Everaldo B. de Souza

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available Diagnostic analyses of two ENSO episodes observed during 1954-55 (La Niña and 1972-73 (El Niño over tropical Pacific Ocean are reported. These years were marked by reversed impact on the regional precipitation observed over the northeastern South America. The observational results showed that, in the Pacific Ocean, the La Niña stayed well configured during both summer and autumn of 1954-55, however the El Niño presented its mature phase during summer of 1972-73 and an abrupt decline during autumn of 1973. On the other hand, the large-scale oceanic and atmospheric patterns related to the intertropical Atlantic SST gradient, created dynamic conditions that modulated the positioning of ITCZ in the equatorial Atlantic and regulated significantly the rainfall anomalies observed in the northeastern South America, overcoming the effect of the ENSO mode observed in the tropical Pacific.En el presente trabajo se realiza un estudio de diagnóstico de los eventos ENSO ocurridos en 1954-55 (La Niña y 1972-73 (El Niño. Durante 1954-55 (1972-73, se observaron anomalías de temperaturas de la superficie del mar (TSM positivas (negativas en el Atlántico Norte y negativas (positivas en el Atlántico Sur, lo que define la fase positiva (negativa del dipolo Atlántico. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que pese a la ocurrencia del evento La Niña (El Niño en el Pacífico, la configuración del dipolo positivo (negativo en el Atlántico creó las condiciones favorables para mantener la ITCZ al norte (sur del Ecuador. En consecuencia, se encontró un déficit (exceso de precipitación en el nor-noreste brasileño durante DEF y MAM de 1954-55 (1972-73. Por lo tanto, durante estos años la configuración anómala de TSM en el Atlántico moduló las anomalías de lluvia observadas en el Amazonas y noreste de Brasil, superando el efecto del ENSO.

  15. Massive bleaching of coral reefs induced by the 2010 ENSO, Puerto Cabello, Venezuela.

    Science.gov (United States)

    del Mónaco, Carlos; Haiek, Gerard; Narciso, Samuel; Galindo, Miguel

    2012-06-01

    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has generated global coral massive bleaching. The aim of this work was to evaluate the massive bleaching of coral reefs in Puerto Cabello, Venezuela derived from ENSO 2010. We evaluated the bleaching of reefs at five localities both at three and five meter depth. The coral cover and densities of colonies were estimated. We recorded living coral cover, number and diameter of bleached and non-bleached colonies of each coral species. The colonies were classified according to the proportion of bleached area. Satellite images (Modis Scar) were analyzed for chlorophyll-a concentration and temperature in August, September, October and November from 2008-2010. Precipitation, wind speed and air temperature information was evaluated in meteorological data for 2009 and 2010. A total of 58.3% of colonies, belonging to 11 hexacoral species, were affected and the greatest responses were observed in Colpophyllia natans, Montastraea annularis and Montastraeafaveolata. The most affected localities were closer to the mainland and had a bleached proportion up to 62.73+/-36.55%, with the highest proportion of affected colonies, whereas the farthest locality showed 20.25+/-14.00% bleached and the smallest proportion. The salinity in situ varied between 30 and 33ppm and high levels of turbidity were observed. According to the satellite images, in 2010 the surface water temperature reached 31 degree C in August, September and October, and resulted higher than those registered in 2008 and 2009. Regionally, chlorophyll values were higher in 2010 than in 2008 and 2009. The meteorological data indicated that precipitation in November 2010 was three times higher than in November 2009. Massive coral bleaching occurred due to a three month period of high temperatures followed by one month of intense ENSO-associated precipitation. However, this latter factor was likely the trigger because of the bleaching gradient observed.

  16. ENSO variability reflected in precipitation oxygen isotopes across the Asian Summer Monsoon region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Zhongyin; Tian, Lide; Bowen, Gabriel J.

    2017-10-01

    Oxygen isotope signals (δ18O) from paleo-archives are important proxies for past Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) climate reconstruction. However, causes of interannual variation in the δ18O values of modern precipitation across the ASM region remain in argument. We report interannual δ18O variation in southern Tibetan Plateau precipitation based on long-term observations at Lhasa. These data, together with precipitation δ18O records from five Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) stations and two ice core δ18O records, were used to define a regional metric of ASM precipitation δ18O (ASMOI). Back-trajectory analyses for rainy season precipitation events indicate that moisture sources vary little between years with relatively high and low δ18O values, a result that is consistent for the south (Lhasa), southeast (Bangkok), and east ASM regions (Hong Kong). In contrast, δ18O values at these three locations are significantly correlated with convection in the estimated source regions and along transport paths. These results suggest that upstream convection, rather than moisture source change, causes interannual variation in ASM precipitation δ18O values. Contrasting values of the ASMOI in El Niño and La Niña years reveal a positive isotope-El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response (e.g., high values corresponding to warm phases), which we interpret as a response to changes in regional convection. We show that the isotope-ENSO response is amplified at high elevation sites and during La Niña years. These findings should improve interpretations of paleo-δ18O data as a proxy for past ASM variation and provide new opportunities to use data from this region to study paleo-ENSO activity.

  17. Predictability of a Coupled Model of ENSO Using Singular Vector Analysis: Optimal Growth and Forecast Skill.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Yan

    The optimal growth and its relationship with the forecast skill of the Zebiak and Cane model are studied using a simple statistical model best fit to the original nonlinear model and local linear tangent models about idealized climatic states (the mean background and ENSO cycles in a long model run), and the actual forecast states, including two sets of runs using two different initialization procedures. The seasonally varying Markov model best fit to a suite of 3-year forecasts in a reduced EOF space (18 EOFs) fits the original nonlinear model reasonably well and has comparable or better forecast skill. The initial error growth in a linear evolution operator A is governed by the eigenvalues of A^{T}A, and the square roots of eigenvalues and eigenvectors of A^{T}A are named singular values and singular vectors. One dominant growing singular vector is found, and the optimal 6 month growth rate is largest for a (boreal) spring start and smallest for a fall start. Most of the variation in the optimal growth rate of the two forecasts is seasonal, attributable to the seasonal variations in the mean background, except that in the cold events it is substantially suppressed. It is found that the mean background (zero anomaly) is the most unstable state, and the "forecast IC states" are more unstable than the "coupled model states". One dominant growing singular vector is found, characterized by north-south and east -west dipoles, convergent winds on the equator in the eastern Pacific and a deepened thermocline in the whole equatorial belt. This singular vector is insensitive to initial time and optimization time, but its final pattern is a strong function of initial states. The ENSO system is inherently unpredictable for the dominant singular vector can amplify 5-fold to 24-fold in 6 months and evolve into the large scales characteristic of ENSO. However, the inherent ENSO predictability is only a secondary factor, while the mismatches between the model and data is a

  18. Report of Activity 1997; Rapport d`activite 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Menjon, Gerard [ed.; Direction des Etudes et Recherches, Electricite de France, 1 Avenue de General de Gaulle, F-92141 Clamart cedex (France)

    1998-04-01

    The document is a report of activity of the Direction of Studies and Research of the France`s Electricity Authority (Electricite de France) on 1997. It contains the following six main sections: 1. development; 2. environment; 3. development and managing of production-transport system; 4. production; 5. international relations; 6. future developments. The second section deals with the air and water quality, reduction of energy network impact on environment and the case of renewable energies. The following section is devoted to the research and development problems raised by the management of production-transport system. The section number four reports about the experience obtained in the operation of N4 stage, particularly, in the conception of REP 2000. Also mentioned are progress in the field of virtual reality used in professional formation, robot intervention in case of leaks in reactor vessel, multi-recycling of plutonium in PWR, etc. The fifth section reports about the international collaboration in the field of superconductivity, superconductor cables, combined cycles with integrated gasification of carbon and biomass and energy programs in Morocco and China. Finally, it is mentioned the launching of the Galaxie-server in charge with the documentation management of EDF 66 figs., 1 tab.

  19. Summer monsoon circulation and precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean during ENSO in the NCEP climate forecast system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdary, J. S.; Chaudhari, H. S.; Gnanaseelan, C.; Parekh, Anant; Suryachandra Rao, A.; Sreenivas, P.; Pokhrel, S.; Singh, P.

    2014-04-01

    This study investigates the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections to tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and their relationship with the Indian summer monsoon in the coupled general circulation model climate forecast system (CFS). The model shows good skill in simulating the impact of El Niño over the Indian Oceanic rim during its decay phase (the summer following peak phase of El Niño). Summer surface circulation patterns during the developing phase of El Niño are more influenced by local Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies in the model unlike in observations. Eastern TIO cooling similar to that of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a dominant model feature in summer. This anomalous SST pattern therefore is attributed to the tendency of the model to simulate more frequent IOD events. On the other hand, in the model baroclinic response to the diabatic heating anomalies induced by the El Niño related warm SSTs is weak, resulting in reduced zonal extension of the Rossby wave response. This is mostly due to weak eastern Pacific summer time SST anomalies in the model during the developing phase of El Niño as compared to observations. Both eastern TIO cooling and weak SST warming in El Niño region combined together undermine the ENSO teleconnections to the TIO and south Asia regions. The model is able to capture the spatial patterns of SST, circulation and precipitation well during the decay phase of El Niño over the Indo-western Pacific including the typical spring asymmetric mode and summer basin-wide warming in TIO. The model simulated El Niño decay one or two seasons later, resulting long persistent warm SST and circulation anomalies mainly over the southwest TIO. In response to the late decay of El Niño, Ekman pumping shows two maxima over the southern TIO. In conjunction with this unrealistic Ekman pumping, westward propagating Rossby waves display two peaks, which play key role in the long-persistence of the TIO warming in the model (for more than a

  20. An Ocean Biology-induced Negative Feedback on ENSO in the Tropical Pacific Climate System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, R. H.

    2016-02-01

    Biological conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean (e.g., phytoplankton biomass) are strongly regulated by physical changes associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The existence and variation of phytoplankton biomass, in turn, act to modulate the vertical penetration of the incoming sunlight in the upper ocean, presenting an ocean biology-induced heating (OBH) effect on the climate system. Previously, a penetration depth of solar radiation in the upper ocean (Hp) is defined to describe the related bio-climate connections. Parameterized in terms of its relationship with the sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific, an empirical model for interannual Hp variability has been derived from remotely sensed ocean color data, which is incorporated into a hybrid coupled model (HCM) to represent OBH effects. In this paper, various HCM experiments are performed to demonstrate the bio-feedback onto ENSO, including a climatological Hp run (in which Hp is prescribed as seasonally varying only), interannual Hp runs (with different intensities of interannually varying OBH effects), and a run in which the sign of the OBH effect is artificially reversed. Significant modulating impacts on interannual variability are found in the HCM, characterized by a negative feedback between ocean biology and the climate system in the tropical Pacific: the stronger the OBH feedback, the weaker the interannual variability. Processes involved in the feedback are analyzed; it is illustrated that the SST is modulated indirectly by ocean dynamical processes induced by OBH. The significance and implication of the OBH effects are discussed for their roles in ENSO variability and model biases in the tropical Pacific.

  1. Roles of tropical SST patterns during two types of ENSO in modulating wintertime rainfall over southern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Kang; Huang, Qing-Lan; Tam, Chi-Yung; Wang, Weiqiang; Chen, Sheng; Zhu, Congwen

    2018-03-01

    The impacts of the eastern-Pacific (EP) and central-Pacific (CP) El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the southern China wintertime rainfall (SCWR) have been investigated. Results show that wintertime rainfall over most stations in southern China is enhanced (suppressed) during the EP (CP) El Niño, which are attributed to different atmospheric responses in the western North Pacific (WNP) and South China Sea (SCS) during two types of ENSO. When EP El Niño occurs, an anomalous low-level anticyclone is present over WNP/the Philippines region, resulting in stronger-than-normal southwesterlies over SCS. Such a wind branch acts to suppress East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and enhance moisture supply, implying surplus SCWR. During CP El Niño, however, anomalous sinking and low-level anticyclonic flow are found to cover a broad region in SCS. These circulation features are associated with moisture divergence over the northern part of SCS and suppressed SCWR. General circulation model experiments have also been conducted to study influence of various tropical sea surface temperature (SST) patterns on the EAWM atmospheric circulation. For EP El Niño, formation of anomalous low-level WNP anticyclone is jointly attributed to positive/negative SST anomalies (SSTA) over the central-to-eastern/ western equatorial Pacific. However, both positive and negative CP Niño-related-SSTA, located respectively over the central Pacific and WNP/SCS, offset each other and contribute a weak but broad-scale anticyclone centered at SCS. These results suggest that, besides the vital role of SST warming, SST cooling over SCS/WNP during two types of El Niño should be considered carefully for understanding the El Niño-EAWM relationship.

  2. Atmospheric QBO and ENSO indices with high vertical resolution from GNSS radio occultation temperature measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilhelmsen, Hallgeir; Ladstädter, Florian; Scherllin-Pirscher, Barbara; Steiner, Andrea K.

    2018-03-01

    We provide atmospheric temperature variability indices for the tropical troposphere and stratosphere based on global navigation satellite system (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) temperature measurements. By exploiting the high vertical resolution and the uniform distribution of the GNSS RO temperature soundings we introduce two approaches, both based on an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The first method utilizes the whole vertical and horizontal RO temperature field from 30° S to 30° N and from 2 to 35 km altitude. The resulting indices, the leading principal components, resemble the well-known patterns of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropics. They provide some information on the vertical structure; however, they are not vertically resolved. The second method applies the EOF analysis on each altitude level separately and the resulting indices contain information on the horizontal variability at each densely available altitude level. They capture more variability than the indices from the first method and present a mixture of all variability modes contributing at the respective altitude level, including the QBO and ENSO. Compared to commonly used variability indices from QBO winds or ENSO sea surface temperature, these new indices cover the vertical details of the atmospheric variability. Using them as proxies for temperature variability is also of advantage because there is no further need to account for response time lags. Atmospheric variability indices as novel products from RO are expected to be of great benefit for studies on atmospheric dynamics and variability, for climate trend analysis, as well as for climate model evaluation.

  3. Environmental report 1997, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lentzner, H.L.; Morris, J.C.; Harrach, R.J.

    1998-01-01

    This report summarizes the environmental program activities at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) for 1997. This report accurately summarizes the results of environmental monitoring, compliance, impacts assessment, and the restoration program at LLNL. It features individual chapters on monitoring of air, sewage, surface water, ground water, soil and sediment, vegetation and foodstuff, and environmental radiation. It also contains chapters on site overview, environmental program information, radiological dose assessment, and quality assurance

  4. Variability modes of precipitation along a Central Mediterranean area and their relations with ENSO, NAO, and other climatic patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalimeris, Anastasios; Ranieri, Ezio; Founda, Dimitra; Norrant, Caroline

    2017-12-01

    This study analyses a century-long set of precipitation time series in the Central Mediterranean (encompassing the Greek Ionian and the Italian Puglia regions) and investigates the statistically significant modes of the interannual precipitation variability using efficient methods of spectral decomposition. The statistical relations and the possible physical couplings between the detected modes and the global or hemispheric patterns of climatic variability (the El Niño Southern Oscillation or ENSO, the North Atlantic Oscillation or NAO, the East Atlantic or EA, the Scandinavian or SCAND, and others) were examined in the time-frequency domain and low-order synchronization events were sought. Significant modes of precipitation variability were detected in the Taranto Gulf and the southern part of the Greek Ionian region at the sub-decadal scales (mostly driven by the SCAND pattern) and particularly at the decadal and quasi-decadal scales, where strong relations found with the ENSO activity (under complex implications of EA and NAO) prior to the 1930s or after the early-1970s. The precipitation variations in the Adriatic stations of Puglia are dominated by significant bi-decadal modes which found to be coherent with the ENSO activity and also weakly related with the Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature intrinsic variability. Additionally, important discontinuities characterize the evolution of precipitation in certain stations of the Taranto Gulf and the Greek Ionian region during the early-1960s and particularly during the early-1970s, followed by significant reductions in the mean annual precipitation. These discontinuities seem to be associated with regional effects of NAO and SCAND, probably combined with the impact of the 1970s climatic shift in the Pacific and the ENSO variability.

  5. Characterization of extreme flood and drought events in Singapore and investigation of their relationships with ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xin; Babovic, Vladan

    2016-04-01

    Flood and drought are hydrologic extreme events that have significant impact on human and natural systems. Characterization of flood and drought in terms of their start, duration and strength, and investigation of the impact of natural climate variability (i.e., ENSO) and anthropogenic climate change on them can help decision makers to facilitate adaptions to mitigate potential enormous economic costs. To date, numerous studies in this area have been conducted, however, they are primarily focused on extra-tropical regions. Therefore, this study presented a detailed framework to characterize flood and drought events in a tropical urban city-state (i.e., Singapore), based on daily data from 26 precipitation stations. Flood and drought events are extracted from standardized precipitation anomalies from monthly to seasonal time scales. Frequency, duration and magnitude of flood and drought at all the stations are analyzed based on crossing theory. In addition, spatial variation of flood and drought characteristics in Singapore is investigated using ordinary kriging method. Lastly, the impact of ENSO condition on flood and drought characteristics is analyzed using regional regression method. The results show that Singapore can be prone to extreme flood and drought events at both monthly and seasonal time scales. ENSO has significant influence on flood and drought characteristics in Singapore, but mainly during the South West Monsoon season. During the El Niño phase, drought can become more extreme. The results have implications for water management practices in Singapore.

  6. The impact of the 2015-2016 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event on greenhouse gas exchange and surface energy budget in an Indonesian oil palm plantation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stiegler, Christian; Meijide, Ana; June, Tania; Knohl, Alexander

    2017-04-01

    The 2015-2016 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event was one of the strongest observed in the last 20 years. Oil palm plantations cover a large fraction of tropical lowlands in Southeast Asia but despite their growing areal extent, measurements and observations of greenhouse gas exchange and surface energy balance are still scarce. In addition, the effects of extreme events such as ENSO on carbon sequestration and the partitioning of surface energy balance components are widely unknown. In this study, we use micrometeorological measurements located in commercial oil palm plantations in the Jambi province (Sumatra, Indonesia) to assess the impact of the 2015-2016 ENSO event and severe forest fires on greenhouse gas exchange and surface energy budget. Continuous measurements are in operation since July 2013 and we assess turbulent fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2), water vapour and sensible heat using the eddy covariance technique before, during and after the 2015-2016 ENSO event. In the beginning of the ENSO event, the area experienced a strong drought with decreasing soil moisture, increasing air and surface temperatures, and strong atmospheric vapour pressure deficit. During the peak of the drought from August to October 2015, hundreds of forest fires in the area resulted in strong smoke production, decreasing incoming solar radiation by 35% compared to pre-ENSO values and diffuse radiation became almost the sole shortwave radiation flux. During the beginning of the drought, carbon uptake of the oil palm plantation was around 2.1 gC m-2 d-1 and initially increased by 50% due to clear-sky conditions and high incoming photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) but increasing density of smoke turned the oil palm plantation into a source of carbon. The turbulent heat fluxes experienced an increase in sensible heat fluxes due to drought conditions at the cost of latent heat fluxes resulting in an increase in the midday Bowen-ratio from 0.17 to 0.40. Strong smoke

  7. Multi-scale linkages of winter drought variability to ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation: A case study in Shaanxi, North China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhiyong; Zhang, Xin; Fang, Ruihong

    2018-02-01

    Understanding the potential connections between climate indices such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) and drought variability will be beneficial for making reasonable predictions or assumptions about future regional droughts, and provide valuable information to improve water resources planning and design for specific regions of interest. This study is to examine the multi-scale relationships between winter drought variability over Shaanxi (North China) and both ENSO and AO during the period 1960-2009. To accomplish this, we first estimated winter dryness/wetness conditions over Shaanxi based on the self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (PDSI). Then, we identified the spatiotemporal variability of winter dryness/wetness conditions in the study area by using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF). Two primary sub-regions of winter dryness/wetness conditions across Shaanxi were identified. We further examined the periodical oscillations of dryness/wetness conditions and the multi-scale relationships between dryness/wetness conditions and both ENSO and AO in winter using wavelet analysis. The results indicate that there are inverse multi-scale relations between winter dryness/wetness conditions and ENSO (according to the wavelet coherence) for most of the study area. Moreover, positive multi-scale relations between winter dryness/wetness conditions and AO are mainly observed. The results could be beneficial for making reasonable predictions or assumptions about future regional droughts and provide valuable information to improve water resources planning and design within this study area. In addition to the current study area, this study may also offer a useful reference for other regions worldwide with similar climate conditions.

  8. Fast reactor development program in France in 1997

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Langrand, J.C.; Hubert, G.; Marmonier, P.; Del Negro, R.; Saint-Arroman, G.; Coulon, P.; Mesnage, B.; Pillon, S.; Lefevre, J.C.

    1998-01-01

    The operating performance of the French nuclear plants in 1997 were again satisfactory, confirming the good 1996 results; 78% of the national electricity production was of nuclear origin (376/481 TWh); the nuclear safety indicators were even better with a slight decrease in the number of reported incidents; the availability factor was higher than 82,5%; the kWh production cost continue to decrease by about 1,7% per year; thanks to an ALARA approach, individual and collective doses are still decreasing; the liquid and gaseous releases are also still decreasing and the volume of nuclear wastes is equivalent to last year. The major event of 1997 was the confirmation for the start up of the most advanced nuclear plants, N4 type, with Chooz B1 reaching full power on May 9, 1997 and Chooz B2 following soon with first criticality on March 10 and full power on September 18. As a confirmation and enjoying the experience of Chooz B the first unit of Civaux was synchronised to the grid end of 1997 after fuel loading in Sept 1997. The status of fast reactors was deeply modified, with the governmental decision to abandon Superphenix, which led to decide to close also EFR studies in 1997, and the perspective of operating Phenix till 2004, mainly for studies on radioactive wastes incineration. Three meetings were held during the second half of the year by the > (GP - Permanent Committee) on Phenix; after reviewing all the safety aspects, they concluded to the possibility to resume operation according to the general following scheme: one cycle in 1998, about one year for works, then 6 cycles between 2000 and 2004. Of course, the main event concerning Superphenix is the decision of abandon announced in June 1997. The decree allowing operation had been cancelled in February. The works foreseen in the frame of the planned > shutdown had been conducted satisfactorily, during the first-half of the year. At the beginning of 1998, it was stated that the reactor would not operate again

  9. Tropical Cyclone Paka's Initial Explosive Development (10-12 December, 1997)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodgers, Edward B.; Halverson, Jeff; Simpson, Joanne; Olson, William; Pierce, Harold

    1999-01-01

    Convection associated with an equatorial westerly wind burst was first observed late November during the strong El Nino of 1997 at approximately 2000 km southwest of the Hawaiian Islands. This region of convection lead to the formation of twin tropical cyclones, one in the southern hemisphere named Pam and the other in the northern hemisphere named Paka. During the first week in December, tropical cyclone Paka, the system of concern, reached tropical storm stage as it moved rapidly westward at relatively low latitudes. During the 10-12 of December, Paka rapidly developed into a typhoon.

  10. Rate of candidiasis among HIV-infected children in Spain in the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy (1997-2008).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Álvaro-Meca, Alejandro; Jensen, Julia; Micheloud, Dariela; Díaz, Asunción; Gurbindo, Dolores; Resino, Salvador

    2013-03-04

    Candidiasis is the most common opportunistic infection seen in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals. The aim of our study was to estimate the candidiasis rate and evaluate its trend in HIV-infected children in Spain during the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) compared to HIV-uninfected children. We carried out a retrospective study. Data were obtained from the records of the Minimum Basic Data Set from hospitals in Spain. All HIV-infected children were under 17 years of age, and a group of HIV-uninfected children with hospital admissions matching the study group by gender and age were randomly selected. The follow-up period (1997-2008) was divided into three calendar periods: a) From 1997 to 1999 for early-period HAART; b) from 2000 to 2002 for mid-period HAART; and c) from 2003 to 2008 for late-period HAART. Among children with hospital admissions, HIV-infected children had much higher values than HIV-uninfected children during each of the three calendar periods for overall candidiasis rates (150.0 versus 6.1 events per 1,000 child hospital admissions/year (p candidiasis rate (events per 1,000 HIV-infected children/year) decreased from 1997-1999 to 2000-2002 (18.8 to 10.6; p candidiasis, both non-ICM and ICM rates experienced significant decreases from 1997-1999 to 2003-2008 (15.9 to 5.7 (p candidiasis rate still remains higher than in the general population (from 1997 to 2008), candidiasis diagnoses have decreased among HIV-infected children throughout the HAART era, and it has ceased to be a major health problem among children with HIV infection.

  11. Investigation of hydrological variability in the Korean Peninsula with the ENSO teleconnections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Yoon

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes nonlinear behavior links with atmospheric teleconnections between hydrologic variables and climate indices using statistical models during warm season (June to September over the Korean Peninsula (KP. The ocean-related major climate factor, which is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO was used to analyze the atmospheric teleconnections by principal component analysis (PCA and a singular spectrum analysis (SSA. The nonlinear lag time correlations between climate indices and hydrologic variables are calculated by Mutual Information (MI technique. The nonlinear correlation coefficients (CCs by MI were higher than linear CCs, and ENSO shows a few months of lag time correlation. The warm season hydrologic variables in KP shows a significant increasing tendency during the warm pool (WP, and the cold tongue (CT El Niño decaying years shows a significant decreasing tendency, while the La Niña year shows slightly above normal conditions, respectively. A better understanding of the relationship between climate indices and streamflow, and their local impacts can help to prepare for the river discharge management by water managers and scientists. Furthermore, these results provide useful data for policy makers and end-users to support long-range water resources prediction and water-related policy.

  12. A New Technique to Observe ENSO Activity via Ground-Based GPS Receivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suparta, Wayan; Iskandar, Ahmad; Singh, Mandeep Singh Jit

    In an attempt to study the effects of global climate change in the tropics for improving global climate model, this paper aims to detect the ENSO events, especially El Nino phase by using ground-based GPS receivers. Precipitable water vapor (PWV) obtained from the Global Positioning System (GPS) Meteorology measurements in line with the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTa) are used to connect their response to El Niño activity. The data gathered from four selected stations over the Southeast Asia, namely PIMO (Philippines), KUAL (Malaysia), NTUS (Singapore) and BAKO (Indonesia) for the year of 2009/2010 were processed. A strong correlation was observed for PIMO station with a correlation coefficient of -0.90, significantly at the 99 % confidence level. In general, the relationship between GPS PWV and SSTa at all stations on a weekly basis showed with a negative correlation. The negative correlation indicates that during the El Niño event, the PWV variation was in decreased trend. Decreased trend of PWV value is caused by a dry season that affected the GPS signals in the ocean-atmospheric coupling. Based on these promising results, we can propose that the ground-based GPS receiver is capable used to monitor ENSO activity and this is a new prospective method that previously unexplored.

  13. Zonally resolved impact of ENSO on the stratospheric circulation and water vapor entry values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konopka, Paul; Ploeger, Felix; Tao, Mengchu; Riese, Martin

    2016-10-01

    Based on simulations with the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) for the period 1979-2013, with model transport driven by the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis, we discuss the impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the variability of the dynamics, water vapor, ozone, and mean age of air (AoA) in the tropical lower stratosphere during boreal winter. Our zonally resolved analysis at the 390 K potential temperature level reveals that not only (deseasonalized) ENSO-related temperature anomalies are confined to the tropical Pacific (180-300°E) but also anomalous wave propagation and breaking, as quantified in terms of the Eliassen-Palm (EP) flux divergence, with strongest local contribution during the La Niña phase. This anomaly is coherent with respective anomalies of water vapor (±0.5 ppmv) and ozone (±100 ppbv) derived from CLaMS being in excellent agreement with the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder observations. Thus, during El Niño a more zonally symmetric wave forcing drives a deep branch of the Brewer-Dobson (BD) circulation. During La Niña this forcing increases at lower levels (≈390 K) over the tropical Pacific, likely influencing the shallow branch of the BD circulation. In agreement with previous studies, wet (dry) and young (old) tape recorder anomalies propagate upward in the subsequent months following El Niño (La Niña). Using CLaMS, these anomalies are found to be around +0.3 (-0.2) ppmv and -4 (+4) months for water vapor and AoA, respectively. The AoA ENSO anomaly is more strongly affected by the residual circulation (≈2/3) than by eddy mixing (≈1/3).

  14. Corporate social responsibility as a business strategy: Stora Enso-WWF partnership project

    OpenAIRE

    Tysiachniouk, M.S.

    2009-01-01

    The paper analyzes the strategic partnership between transnational corporation Stora-Enso and international nongovernmental organization NGO WWF as a business strategy that helps the company to adopt its business to the turbulent environment of the economy in transition. In this paper I draw from the theory of institutional sociology to explain complex interaction between transnational actors and actors in localities that jointly form a governance generating network in order to implement the ...

  15. Effect of Modulation of ENSO by Decadal and Multidecadal Ocean-Atmospheric Oscillations on Continental US Streamflows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, S.; Abebe, A.; Srivastava, P.; Chaubey, I.

    2017-12-01

    Evaluation of the influences of individual and coupled oceanic-atmospheric oscillations on streamflow at a regional scale in the United States is the focus of this study. The main climatic oscillations considered in this study are: El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Unimpacted or minimally impacted by water management streamflow data from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) were used in this study. Two robust and novel non-parametric tests, namely, the rank based partial least square (PLS) and the Joint Rank Fit (JRFit) procedures were used to identify the individual and coupled effect of oscillations on streamflow across continental U.S. (CONUS), respectively. Moreover, the interactive effects of ENSO with decadal and multidecadal cycles were tested and quantified using the JRFit interaction test. The analysis of ENSO indicated higher streamflows during La Niña phase compared to the El Niño phase in Northwest, Northeast and the lower part of Ohio Valley while the opposite occurs for rest of the climatic regions in US. Two distinct climate regions (Northwest and Southeast) were identified from the PDO analysis where PDO negative phase results in increased streamflow than PDO positive phase. Consistent negative and positive correlated regions around the CONUS were identified for AMO and NAO, respectively. The interaction test of ENSO with decadal and multidecadal oscillations showed that El Niño is modulated by the negative phase of PDO and NAO, and the positive phase of AMO, respectively, in the Upper Midwest. However, La Niña is modulated by the positive phase of AMO and PDO in Ohio Valley and Northeast while in Southeast and the South it is modulated by AMO negative phase. Results of this study will assist water managers to understand the streamflow change patterns across the CONUS at decadal and multi-decadal time scales. The

  16. Large-scale shifts in phytoplankton groups in the Equatorial Pacific during ENSO cycles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Masotti

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO drives important changes in the marine productivity of the Equatorial Pacific, in particular during major El Niño/La Niña transitions. Changes in environmental conditions associated with these climatic events also likely impact phytoplankton composition. In this work, the distribution of four major phytoplankton groups (nanoeucaryotes, Prochlorococcus, Synechococcus, and diatoms was examined between 1996 and 2007 by applying the PHYSAT algorithm to the ocean color data archive from the Ocean Color and Temperature Sensor (OCTS and Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS. Coincident with the decrease in chlorophyll concentrations, a large-scale shift in the phytoplankton composition of the Equatorial Pacific, that was characterized by a decrease in Synechococcus and an increase in nanoeucaryote dominance, was observed during the early stages of both the strong El Niño of 1997 and the moderate El Niño of 2006. A significant increase in diatoms dominance was observed in the Equatorial Pacific during the 1998 La Niña and was associated with elevated marine productivity. An analysis of the environmental variables using a coupled physical-biogeochemical model (NEMO-PISCES suggests that the Synechococcus dominance decrease during the two El Niño events was associated with an abrupt decline in nutrient availability (−0.9 to −2.5 μM NO3 month−1. Alternatively, increased nutrient availability (3 μM NO3 month−1 during the 1998 La Niña resulted in Equatorial Pacific dominance diatom increase. Despite these phytoplankton community shifts, the mean composition is restored after a few months, which suggests resilience in community structure.

  17. The Anticipation of the ENSO: What Resonantly Forced Baroclinic Waves Can Teach Us (Part II

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Louis Pinault

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the paper is to take advantage of recent work on the study of resonantly forced baroclinic waves in the tropical Pacific to significantly reduce systematic and random forecasting errors resulting from the current statistical models intended to predict El Niño. Their major drawback is that sea surface temperature (SST, which is widely used, is very difficult to decipher because of the extreme complexity of exchanges at the ocean-atmosphere interface. In contrast, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO forecasting can be performed between 7 and 8 months in advance precisely and very simply from (1 the subsurface water temperature at particular locations and (2 the time lag of the events (their expected date of occurrence compared to a regular 4-year cycle. Discrimination of precursor signals from objective criteria prevents the anticipation of wrong events, as occurred in 2012 and 2014. The amplitude of the events, their date of appearance, as well as their potential impact on the involved regions are estimated. Three types of ENSO events characterize their climate impact according to whether they are (1 unlagged or weakly lagged, (2 strongly lagged, or (3 out of phase with the annual quasi-stationary wave (QSW (Central Pacific El Niño events. This substantial progress is based on the analysis of baroclinic QSWs in the tropical basin and the resulting genesis of ENSO events. As for cold events, the amplification of La Niña can be seen a few months before the maturation phase of an El Niño event, as occurred in 1998 and 2016.

  18. South Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Variability and Trend: Its Links to Indo-Pacific SST Anomalies and Moist Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasanna, V.

    2016-06-01

    The warm (cold) phase of El Niño (La Niña) and its impact on all Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall (AISMR) relationship is explored for the past 100 years. The 103-year (1901-2003) data from the twentieth century reanalysis datasets (20CR) and other major reanalysis datasets for southwest monsoon season (JJAS) is utilized to find out the simultaneous influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-AISMR relationship. Two cases such as wet, dry monsoon years associated with ENSO(+) (El Niño), ENSO(-) (La Niña) and Non-ENSO (neutral) events have been discussed in detail using observed rainfall and three-dimensional 20CR dataset. The dry and wet years associated with ENSO and Non-ENSO periods show significant differences in the spatial pattern of rainfall associated with three-dimensional atmospheric composite, the 20CR dataset has captured the anomalies quite well. During wet (dry) years, the rainfall is high (low), i.e. 10 % above (below) average from the long-term mean and this wet or dry condition occur both during ENSO and Non-ENSO phases. The Non-ENSO year dry or wet composites are also focused in detail to understand, where do the anomalous winds come from unlike in the ENSO case. The moisture transport is coherent with the changes in the spatial pattern of AISMR and large-scale feature in the 20CR dataset. Recent 50-year trend (1951-2000) is also analyzed from various available observational and reanalysis datasets to see the influence of Indo-Pacific SST and moist processes on the South Asian summer monsoon rainfall trend. Apart from the Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST), the moisture convergence and moisture transport among India (IND), Equatorial Indian Ocean (IOC) and tropical western pacific (WNP) is also important in modifying the wet or dry cycles over India. The mutual interaction among IOC, WNP and IND in seasonal timescales is significant in modifying wet and dry cycles over the Indian region and the seasonal anomalies.

  19. What do we need to know to predict ENSO? Student-centered learning in a Master course in Climate Physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lübbecke, Joke; Glessmer, Mirjam

    2017-04-01

    An important learning outcome of a Master of Sciences program is to empower students to understand which information they need, how they can gain the required knowledge and skills, and how to apply those to solve a given scientific problem. In designing a class on the El-Nino-Southern-Oscillation (ENSO) for students in the Climate Physics program at Kiel University, Germany, we have implemented various active learning strategies to meet this goal. The course is guided by an overarching question, embedded in a short story: What would we need to know to successfully predict ENSO? The students identify desired learning outcomes and collaboratively construct a concept map which then serves as a structure for the 12 weeks of the course, where each individual topic is situated in the larger context of the students' own concept map. Each learning outcome of the course is therefore directly motivated by a need to know expressed by the students themselves. During each session, students are actively involved in the learning process. They work individually or in small groups, for example testing different index definitions, analyzing data sets, setting up simple numerical models and planning and constructing hands-on experiments to demonstrate physical processes involved in the formation of El Niño events. The instructor's role is to provide the necessary background information and guide the students where it is needed. Insights are shared between groups as students present their findings to each other and combine the information, for example by cooperatively constructing a world map displaying the impacts of ENSO or by exchanging experts on different ENSO oscillator theories between groups. Development of this course was supported by the PerLe Fonds for teaching innovations at Kiel University. A preliminary evaluation has been very positive with students in particular appreciating their active involvement in the class.

  20. Seasonal to Interannual Variability of Satellite-Based Precipitation Estimates in the Pacific Ocean Associated with ENSO from 1998 to 2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xueyan Hou

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Based on a widely used satellite precipitation product (TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis 3B43, we analyzed the spatiotemporal variability of precipitation over the Pacific Ocean for 1998–2014 at seasonal and interannual timescales, separately, using the conventional empirical orthogonal function (EOF and investigated the seasonal patterns associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO cycles using season-reliant empirical orthogonal function (SEOF analysis. Lagged correlation analysis was also applied to derive the lead/lag correlations of the first two SEOF modes for precipitation with Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO and two types of El Niño, i.e., central Pacific (CP El Niño and eastern Pacific (EP El Niño. We found that: (1 The first two seasonal EOF modes for precipitation represent the annual cycle of precipitation variations for the Pacific Ocean and the first interannual EOF mode shows the spatiotemporal variability associated with ENSO; (2 The first SEOF mode for precipitation is simultaneously associated with the development of El Niño and most likely coincides with CP El Niño. The second SEOF mode lagged behind ENSO by one year and is associated with post-El Niño years. PDO modulates precipitation variability significantly only when ENSO occurs by strengthening and prolonging the impacts of ENSO; (3 Seasonally evolving patterns of the first two SEOF modes represent the consecutive precipitation patterns associated with the entire development of EP El Niño and the following recovery year. The most significant variation occurs over the tropical Pacific, especially in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ and South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ; (4 Dry conditions in the western basin of the warm pool and wet conditions along the ITCZ and SPCZ bands during the mature phase of El Niño are associated with warm sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific, and a subtropical anticyclone dominating

  1. Changes in Andes snow cover from MODIS data, 2000-2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saavedra, Freddy A.; Kampf, Stephanie K.; Fassnacht, Steven R.; Sibold, Jason S.

    2018-03-01

    The Andes span a length of 7000 km and are important for sustaining regional water supplies. Snow variability across this region has not been studied in detail due to sparse and unevenly distributed instrumental climate data. We calculated snow persistence (SP) as the fraction of time with snow cover for each year between 2000 and 2016 from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite sensors (500 m, 8-day maximum snow cover extent). This analysis is conducted between 8 and 36° S due to high frequency of cloud (> 30 % of the time) south and north of this range. We ran Mann-Kendall and Theil-Sens analyses to identify areas with significant changes in SP and snowline (the line at lower elevation where SP = 20 %). We evaluated how these trends relate to temperature and precipitation from Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications-2 (MERRA2) and University of Delaware datasets and climate indices as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Areas north of 29° S have limited snow cover, and few trends in snow persistence were detected. A large area (34 370 km2) with persistent snow cover between 29 and 36° S experienced a significant loss of snow cover (2-5 fewer days of snow year-1). Snow loss was more pronounced (62 % of the area with significant trends) on the east side of the Andes. We also found a significant increase in the elevation of the snowline at 10-30 m year-1 south of 29-30° S. Decreasing SP correlates with decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature, and the magnitudes of these correlations vary with latitude and elevation. ENSO climate indices better predicted SP conditions north of 31° S, whereas the SAM better predicted SP south of 31° S.

  2. Impacts of Forest to Urban Land Conversion and ENSO Phase on Water Quality of a Public Water Supply Reservoir

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emile Elias

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We used coupled watershed and reservoir models to evaluate the impacts of deforestation and l Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO phase on drinking water quality. Source water total organic carbon (TOC is especially important due to the potential for production of carcinogenic disinfection byproducts (DBPs. The Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC reservoir model is used to evaluate the difference between daily pre- and post- urbanization nutrients and TOC concentration. Post-disturbance (future reservoir total nitrogen (TN, total phosphorus (TP, TOC and chlorophyll-a concentrations were found to be higher than pre-urbanization (base concentrations (p < 0.05. Predicted future median TOC concentration was 1.1 mg·L−1 (41% higher than base TOC concentration at the source water intake. Simulations show that prior to urbanization, additional water treatment was necessary on 47% of the days between May and October. However, following simulated urbanization, additional drinking water treatment might be continuously necessary between May and October. One of six ENSO indices is weakly negatively correlated with the measured reservoir TOC indicating there may be higher TOC concentrations in times of lower streamflow (La Niña. There is a positive significant correlation between simulated TN and TP concentrations with ENSO suggesting higher concentrations during El Niño.

  3. Diversity in the representation of large-scale circulation associated with ENSO-Indian summer monsoon teleconnections in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramu, Dandi A.; Chowdary, Jasti S.; Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.; Kumar, O. S. R. U. B.

    2018-04-01

    Realistic simulation of large-scale circulation patterns associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is vital in coupled models in order to represent teleconnections to different regions of globe. The diversity in representing large-scale circulation patterns associated with ENSO-Indian summer monsoon (ISM) teleconnections in 23 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models is examined. CMIP5 models have been classified into three groups based on the correlation between Niño3.4 sea surface temperature (SST) index and ISM rainfall anomalies, models in group 1 (G1) overestimated El Niño-ISM teleconections and group 3 (G3) models underestimated it, whereas these teleconnections are better represented in group 2 (G2) models. Results show that in G1 models, El Niño-induced Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) SST anomalies are not well represented. Anomalous low-level anticyclonic circulation anomalies over the southeastern TIO and western subtropical northwest Pacific (WSNP) cyclonic circulation are shifted too far west to 60° E and 120° E, respectively. This bias in circulation patterns implies dry wind advection from extratropics/midlatitudes to Indian subcontinent. In addition to this, large-scale upper level convergence together with lower level divergence over ISM region corresponding to El Niño are stronger in G1 models than in observations. Thus, unrealistic shift in low-level circulation centers corroborated by upper level circulation changes are responsible for overestimation of ENSO-ISM teleconnections in G1 models. Warm Pacific SST anomalies associated with El Niño are shifted too far west in many G3 models unlike in the observations. Further large-scale circulation anomalies over the Pacific and ISM region are misrepresented during El Niño years in G3 models. Too strong upper-level convergence away from Indian subcontinent and too weak WSNP cyclonic circulation are prominent in most of G3 models in which ENSO-ISM teleconnections are

  4. Using Remote Sensing Products to Identify Marine Association Patterns in Factors Relating to ENSO in the Pacific Ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cunjin Xue

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO and its relationships with marine environmental parameters comprise a very complicated and interrelated system. Traditional spatiotemporal techniques face great challenges in dealing with which, how, and where the marine environmental parameters in different zones help to drive, and respond to, ENSO events. Remote sensing products covering a 15-year period from 1998 to 2012 were used to quantitatively explore these patterns in the Pacific Ocean (PO by a prevail quantitative association rule mining algorithm, that is, a priori, within a mining framework. The marine environmental parameters considered were monthly anomaly of sea surface chlorophyll-a (CHLA, monthly anomaly of sea surface temperature (SSTA, monthly anomaly of sea level anomaly (SLAA, monthly anomaly of sea surface precipitation (SSPA, and monthly anomaly of sea surface wind speed (WSA. Four significant discoveries are found, namely: (1 Association patterns among marine environmental parameters and ENSO events were found primarily in five sub-regions of the PO: the western PO, the central and eastern tropical PO, the middle of the northern subtropical PO, offshore of the California coast, and the southern PO; (2 In the western and the middle and east of the equatorial PO, the association patterns are more complicated than other regions; (3 The following factors were found to be predicators of and responses to La Niña events: abnormal decrease of SLAA and WSA in the east of the equatorial PO, abnormal decrease of SSPA and WSA in the middle of the equatorial PO, abnormal decrease of SSTA in the eastern and central tropical PO, and abnormal increase of SLAA in the western PO; (4 Only abnormal decrease of CHLA in the middle of the equatorial PO was found to be a predicator of and response to El Niño events. These findings will help to improve our abilities to identify the marine association patterns in factors relating to ENSO events.

  5. Captura incidental de tortugas marinas durante El Niño 1997-1998, en el norte del Perú Sea turtles by-catch during El Niño 1997-1998, in northern Perú

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier Castro

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Se presenta evidencia del aumento de capturas incidentales de tortugas marinas en el norte del Perú, durante el fenómeno El Niño Oscilación del Sur (ENOS 1997-1998. El área de estudio se ubica frente a Lambayeque, entre 6°20'S y 7°10'S, y desde la costa hasta 35 mn mar afuera. Se analizaron y describieron los aparejos de enmalle por ser los que más interactuaban con estas tortugas, así como las características de las embarcaciones. Se registraron las tortugas capturadas por la flota artesanal entre enero 1996 y diciembre 1998; se identificó las especies capturadas y se analizó la captura por unidad de esfuerzo (CPUE; la información se correlacionó con la temperatura superficial del mar (TSM. Se analizó un total de 265 operaciones de pesca, capturándose un total de 383 tortugas, correspondiendo 80,4% a la tortuga pico de loro (Lepidochelys olivacea, 19,3% a la tortuga verde (Chelonia mydas y 0.2% a la tortuga carey (Eretmochelys imbricata. Se encontró una correlación altamente significativa entre las capturas de tortugas marinas y la TSM con un intervalo de confianza del 99% (Pearson; r = 0,787; σ = 0,000; N = 36. Se recomienda reforzar la colaboración entre entidades públicas y privadas para implementar medidas de manejo adecuadas para la conservación de estas especies amenazadas, sobre todo ante la eventualidad de un fenómeno ENOS.The main purpose of this work is to present evidence of sea turtles by-catch increase in northern Peru during the 1997-1998 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO process. The study area is located off Lambayeque, between 6°20'S and 7°10'S, and from the coastline up to 35 nm offshore. The gillnet artisanal fishery was analyzed and described, since this was the fishing gear which most interact with sea turtles, the boat characteristics were evaluated as well. Sea turtle captures and species identification were registered from January 1996 until December 1998. The catch per unit effort (CPUE was

  6. The impact of the 2015-2016 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event on greenhouse gas exchange and surface energy budget in an Indonesian oil palm plantation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stiegler, C.; Meijide, A.; June, T.; Knohl, A.

    2016-12-01

    Oil palm plantations cover a large fraction of tropical lowlands in Southeast Asia. However, despite their growing areal extent, measurements and observations of greenhouse gas exchange and surface energy balance are still scarce. In addition, the effects of extreme events such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on carbon sequestration and the partitioning of surface energy balance components are widely unknown. In this study, we use micrometeorological measurements located in commercial oil palm plantations in the Jambi province (Sumatra, Indonesia) to assess the impact of the 2015-2016 ENSO event on greenhouse gas exchange and surface energy budget. Measurements are in operation since July 2013 and we assess continuously turbulent fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2), water vapour and sensible heat using the eddy covariance technique before, during and after the 2015-2016 ENSO event. The full surface energy budget is completed by measurements of radiative components, ground heat fluxes, and soil thermal and hydrological properties. The study is part of a large interdisciplinary project focussing on the ecological and socioeconomic functions of lowland rainforest transformation systems (EFForTS). During the ENSO event, the area experienced a strong drought with decreasing soil moisture and increasing air and surface temperatures. During the peak in September and October 2015, hundreds of fires in the area resulted in strong smoke production decreasing incoming solar radiation and increasing the diffuse fraction. Compared to regular years, the carbon uptake of the oil palm plantation decreased during the ENSO event. The turbulent heat fluxes experienced an increase in sensible heat fluxes due to drought conditions at the cost of latent heat fluxes resulting in an increase in the Bowen-ratio. Overall, the ENSO event resulted in a major anomaly of exchange processes between the oil palm plantation and the atmosphere.

  7. Precipitation and ice core isotopes from the Asian Summer Monsoon region reflect coherent ENSO variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Z.; Tian, L.; Bowen, G. J.

    2017-12-01

    Oxygen isotope signals (δ18O) from paleo-archives are important proxies for past Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) climate reconstruction. However, causes of interannual variation in the δ18O values of modern precipitation across the ASM region remain in argument. We report interannual δ18O variation in southern Tibetan Plateau precipitation based on long-term observations at Lhasa. These data, together with precipitation δ18O records from five Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) stations and two ice core δ18O records, were used to define a regional metric of ASM precipitation δ18O (ASMOI). Back-trajectory analyses for rainy season precipitation events indicate that moisture sources vary little between years with relatively high and low δ18O values, a result that is consistent for the south (Lhasa), southeast (Bangkok), and east ASM regions (Hong Kong). In contrast, δ18O values at these three locations are significantly correlated with convection in the estimated source regions and along transport paths. These results suggest that upstream convection, rather than moisture source change, causes interannual variation in ASM precipitation δ18O values. Contrasting values of the ASMOI in El Niño and La Niña years reveal a positive isotope-El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response (e.g., high values corresponding to warm phases), which we interpret as a response to changes in regional convection. We show that the isotope-ENSO response is amplified at high elevation sites and during La Niña years. These findings should improve interpretations of paleo-δ18O data as a proxy for past ASM variation and provide new opportunities to use data from this region to study paleo-ENSO activity.

  8. ENSO influence on the interannual variability of the Red Sea convergence zone and associated rainfall

    KAUST Repository

    Dasari, Hari Prasad

    2017-07-18

    The Red Sea convergence zone (RSCZ) is formed by opposite surface winds blowing from northwest to southeast directions at around 18°-19°N between October and January. A reverse-oriented, low-level monsoon trough at 850hPa, known as the Red Sea trough (RST), transfers moisture from the southern Red Sea to RSCZ. The positions of the RSCZ and RST and the intensity of the RST have been identified as important factors in modulating weather and climatic conditions across the Middle East. Here, we investigate the influence of the El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variability of RSCZ, RST, and regional rainfall during winter months. Our results indicate that El Niño (warm ENSO phase) favours a shift of the RSCZ to the north and a strengthening of the RST in the same direction. Conversely, during November and December of La Niña periods (cold ENSO phase), the RSCZ shift to the south and the RST strengthens in the same direction. During El Niño periods, southeasterly wind speeds increase (20-30%) over the southern Red Sea and northwesterly wind speeds decrease (10-15%) over the northern Red Sea. Noticeable increases in the number of rainy days and the intensity of rain events are observed during El Niño phases. These increases are associated with colder than normal air intrusion at lower levels from the north combined with warm air intrusion from the south over the RSCZ. Our analysis suggests that during El Niño winters, warmer sea surface temperatures and higher convective instability over the Red Sea favour local storms conditions and increase rainfall over the Red Sea and adjoining regions.

  9. The Relationship between El nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Phenomenon and Seasonal Precipitation Variability in Eastern Kenya with Special Reference to Katumani: Its Implication to Crop Production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kitheka, S.K

    1999-01-01

    Climatic variability has been defined as a major limitation to agricultural production in semi arid Kenya. The major difficulty to both farmers and research community, has been the inability to to predict seasonal rainfall prior to the season onset. Although several researches have attempted and made advances in predicting rainfall amount, solutions to the problem have not been achieved. This study has examined and related rainfall at Katumani with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Rainfall variations during different phases of ENSO were established. Some advances in the early prediction of March-May and October -January rains for, both, the warm and cold phases of ENSO have been made. Crop production is closely related to the rainfall and therefore a need for revision of agronomic recommendation to tie them with rainfall variation

  10. Trends in disability of instrumental activities of daily living among older Chinese adults, 1997-2006: population based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Yajun; Welmer, Anna-Karin; Möller, Jette; Qiu, Chengxuan

    2017-08-28

    Data on trends for disability in instrumental activity of daily living (IADL) are sparse in older Chinese adults. To assess trends in prevalence and incidence of IADL disability among older Chinese adults and to explore contributing factors. Population based study. 15 provinces and municipalities in China. Participants (age ≥60) were from four waves of the China Health and Nutrition Survey, conducted in 1997 (n=1533), 2000 (n=1581), 2004 (n=2028) and 2006 (n=2256), and from two cohorts constructed within the national survey: cohort 1997-2004 (n=712) and cohort 2000-2006 (n=823). IADL disability was defined as inability to perform one or more of the following: shopping, cooking, using transportation, financing and telephoning. Data were analysed with logistic regression and generalised estimating equation models. The prevalence of IADL disability significantly decreased from 1997 to 2006 in the total sample and in all of the subgroups by age, sex, living region and IADL items (all p trend 0.10). The recovery rate from IADL disability significantly increased over time in those aged 60-69 years (p=0.03). Living in a rural area or access to local clinics for healthcare was less disabling over time (p trend <0.02). The prevalence of IADL disability decreased among older Chinese adults during 1997-2006, whereas the incidence remained stable. The declining prevalence of IADL disability might be partly due to the decreased duration of IADL disability, and to improvements in living conditions and healthcare facilities over time. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  11. NEA Annual report 1997

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-01-01

    The following issues are dealt with: 1997 in perspective. Trends in nuclear power. Technical programmes: Nuclear development and fuel cycle, nuclear safety and regulation, radiation protection, radioactive waste management, nuclear science, data bank, legal affairs, joint projects and other cooperative projects. General information: information programme, NEA publications produced in 1997, organization chart of NEA, workshops and meetings held in 1997. (R.P.)

  12. A concept for extraction of habitat features from laser scanning and hypersprectral imaging for evaluation of Natura 2000 sites - the ChangeHabitats2 project approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Székely, B.; Kania, A.; Pfeifer, N.; Heilmeier, H.; Tamás, J.; Szöllősi, N.; Mücke, W.

    2012-04-01

    The goal of the ChangeHabitats2 project is the development of cost- and time-efficient habitat assessment strategies by employing effective field work techniques supported by modern airborne remote sensing methods, i.e. hyperspectral imagery and laser scanning (LiDAR). An essential task of the project is the design of a novel field work technique that on the one hand fulfills the reporting requirements of the Flora-Fauna-Habitat (FFH-) directive and on the other hand serves as a reference for the aerial data analysis. Correlations between parameters derived from remotely sensed data and terrestrial field measurements shall be exploited in order to create half- or fully-automated methods for the extraction of relevant Natura2000 habitat parameters. As a result of these efforts a comprehensive conceptual model has been developed for extraction and integration of Natura 2000 relevant geospatial data. This scheme is an attempt to integrate various activities within ChangeHabitats2 project defining pathways of development, as well as encompassing existing data processing chains, theoretical approaches and field work. The conceptual model includes definition of processing levels (similar to those existing in remote sensing), whereas these levels cover the range from the raw data to the extracted habitat feature. For instance, the amount of dead wood (standing or lying on the surface) is an important evaluation criterion for the habitat. The tree trunks lying on the ground surface typically can be extracted from the LiDAR point cloud, and the amount of wood can be estimated accordingly. The final result will be considered as a habitat feature derived from laser scanning data. Furthermore, we are also interested not only in the determination of the specific habitat feature, but also in the detection of its variations (especially in deterioration). In this approach the variation of this important habitat feature is considered to be a differential habitat feature, that can

  13. ENSO signals on sea-surface salinity in the eastern tropical pacific ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available SIGNAUX DE L’ENSO SUR LA SALINITE DE LA SURFACE DE LA MER DANS L’OCEAN PACIFIQUE TROPICAL ORIENTAL. Nous présentons les variations de la température et de la salinité de surface. Des navires de commerce ont été récemment équipés de thermosalinographes automatiques qui permettent d’échantillonner en continu et de localiser le front de salinité le long de la ligne Panama-Tahiti, séparant les masses d’eaux du golfe de Panama et celles du Pacifique central sud. La variation en latitude de la position du front halin suit la position de la zone de convergence intertropicale des vents du Pacifique. La salinité donne ainsi des informations supplémentaires sur le développement du phénomène El Niño dans le Pacifique tropical. La future transmission par satellite de la salinité de surface permettra de suivre en temps réel la distribution de la salinité de surface qui est étroitement liée aux échanges entre l’océan et l’atmosphère. SEÑALES DEL ENSO SOBRE LA SALINIDAD DE LA SUPERFICIE DEL OCÉANO PACÍFICO ORIENTAL. Presentamos las variaciones de la temperatura y de la salinidad de superficie. Barcos de comercio fueron recientemente equipados con termo-saliógrafos automáticos, los cuales permiten observar un muestreo continuo y ubicar el frente de salinidad en la recta Panamá-Tahiti, la cual separa las masas de agua del golfo de Panamá con las del Pacífico centro Sur. La variación en latitud de la ubicación del frente halino acompaña a la posición de la Zona de Convergencia Intertropical de los vientos del Pacífico. La salinidad proporciona también informaciones adicionales sobre el desarrollo del Fenómeno El Niño en el Pacífico tropical. La futura transmisión por satélite de la salinidad de superficie permitirá el monitoreo en tiempo real de la distribución en tiempo real de la salinidad de superficie, la cual está estrechamente vinculada con los intercambios entre el océano y la atmósfera. Various data

  14. Rate of candidiasis among HIV-infected children in Spain in the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy (1997–2008)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Candidiasis is the most common opportunistic infection seen in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals. The aim of our study was to estimate the candidiasis rate and evaluate its trend in HIV-infected children in Spain during the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) compared to HIV-uninfected children. Methods We carried out a retrospective study. Data were obtained from the records of the Minimum Basic Data Set from hospitals in Spain. All HIV-infected children were under 17 years of age, and a group of HIV-uninfected children with hospital admissions matching the study group by gender and age were randomly selected. The follow-up period (1997–2008) was divided into three calendar periods: a) From 1997 to 1999 for early-period HAART; b) from 2000 to 2002 for mid-period HAART; and c) from 2003 to 2008 for late-period HAART. Results Among children with hospital admissions, HIV-infected children had much higher values than HIV-uninfected children during each of the three calendar periods for overall candidiasis rates (150.0 versus 6.1 events per 1,000 child hospital admissions/year (p candidiasis rate (events per 1,000 HIV-infected children/year) decreased from 1997–1999 to 2000–2002 (18.8 to 10.6; p candidiasis, both non-ICM and ICM rates experienced significant decreases from 1997–1999 to 2003–2008 (15.9 to 5.7 (p candidiasis rate still remains higher than in the general population (from 1997 to 2008), candidiasis diagnoses have decreased among HIV-infected children throughout the HAART era, and it has ceased to be a major health problem among children with HIV infection. PMID:23510319

  15. ENSO and interdecadal climate variability over the last century documented by geochemical records of two coral cores from the South West Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Ourbak

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The south west Pacific is affected by climatic phenomena such as ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation or the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Near-monthly resolution calibrations of Sr/Ca, U/Ca and δ18Oc were made on corals taken from New Caledonia and Wallis Island. These geochemical variations could be linked to SST (sea surface temperature and SSS (sea surface salinity variations over the last two decades, itselves dependent on ENSO occurrences. On the other hand, near-half-yearly resolution over the last century smoothes seasonal and interannual climate signals, but emphasizes low frequency climate variability.

  16. Significant influences of global mean temperature and ENSO on extreme rainfall over Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villafuerte, Marcelino, II; Matsumoto, Jun

    2014-05-01

    Along with the increasing concerns on the consequences of global warming, and the accumulating records of disaster related to heavy rainfall events in Southeast Asia, this study investigates whether a direct link can be detected between the rising global mean temperature, as well as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and extreme rainfall over the region. The maximum likelihood modeling that allows incorporating covariates on the location parameter of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is employed. The GEV model is fitted to annual and seasonal rainfall extremes, which were taken from a high-resolution gauge-based gridded daily precipitation data covering a span of 57 years (1951-2007). Nonstationarities in extreme rainfall are detected over the central parts of Indochina Peninsula, eastern coasts of central Vietnam, northwest of the Sumatra Island, inland portions of Borneo Island, and on the northeastern and southwestern coasts of the Philippines. These nonstationarities in extreme rainfall are directly linked to near-surface global mean temperature and ENSO. In particular, the study reveals that a kelvin increase in global mean temperature anomaly can lead to an increase of 30% to even greater than 45% in annual maximum 1-day rainfall, which were observed pronouncedly over central Vietnam, southern coast of Myanmar, northwestern sections of Thailand, northwestern tip of Sumatra, central portions of Malaysia, and the Visayas island in central Philippines. Furthermore, a pronounced ENSO influence manifested on the seasonal maximum 1-day rainfall; a northward progression of 10%-15% drier condition over Southeast Asia as the El Niño develops from summer to winter is revealed. It is important therefore, to consider the results obtained here for water resources management as well as for adaptation planning to minimize the potential adverse impact of global warming, particularly on extreme rainfall and its associated flood risk over the region

  17. Õigusrikkumised [1997] = Violation of jurisdiction

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    1998-01-01

    Politseis registreeritud kuriteod, 1997, kuritegevuse tase 10 000 elaniku kohta 1993-1997, kuriteod liikide lõikes, 1997, väljaselgitatud kuritegudes süüdistatavad isikud Tallinnas, 1997, kuritegevus ja selle avastamine Tallinna asumites

  18. Tropical rainforest carbon sink declines during El Niño as a result of reduced photosynthesis and increased respiration rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavaleri, Molly A; Coble, Adam P; Ryan, Michael G; Bauerle, William L; Loescher, Henry W; Oberbauer, Steven F

    2017-10-01

    Changes in tropical forest carbon sink strength during El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events can indicate future behavior under climate change. Previous studies revealed ˜6 Mg C ha -1  yr -1 lower net ecosystem production (NEP) during ENSO year 1998 compared with non-ENSO year 2000 in a Costa Rican tropical rainforest. We explored environmental drivers of this change and examined the contributions of ecosystem respiration (RE) and gross primary production (GPP) to this weakened carbon sink. For 1998-2000, we estimated RE using chamber-based respiration measurements, and we estimated GPP in two ways: using (1) the canopy process model MAESTRA, and (2) combined eddy covariance and chamber respiration data. MAESTRA-estimated GPP did not statistically differ from GPP estimated using approach 2, but was ˜ 28% greater than published GPP estimates for the same site and years using eddy covariance data only. A 7% increase in RE (primarily increased soil respiration) and a 10% reduction in GPP contributed equally to the difference in NEP between ENSO year 1998 and non-ENSO year 2000. A warming and drying climate for tropical forests may yield a weakened carbon sink from both decreased GPP and increased RE. Understanding physiological acclimation will be critical for the large carbon stores in these ecosystems. © 2017 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

  19. Microsoft Windows 2000 Router Configuration Guide

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Richburg, Florence

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this guide is to provide technical guidance to network administrators of small to medium size networks in the configuration and integration of Microsoft Windows 2000 Server Router features...

  20. Head Start FACES 2000: A Whole-Child Perspective on Program Performance. Fourth Progress Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zill, Nicholas; Resnick, Gary; Kim, Kwang; O'Donnell, Kevin; Sorongon, Alberto; McKey, Ruth Hubbell; Pai-Samant, Shefali; Clark, Cheryl; O'Brien, Robert; D'Elio, Mary Ann

    In 1997, Head Start launched the Family and Child Experiences Survey (FACES), a study of a national random sample of Head Start programs, designed to describe characteristics, experiences, and outcomes for children and families served by Head Start. In 2000, FACES began data collection on a new national cohort of 2,800 children and their families…

  1. Status and trend of tree growth and mortality rate at the CONECOFOR plots, 1997-2004

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gianfranco Fabbio

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The circumference of trees in the CONECOFOR permanent monitoring plots (PMPs were measured by three surveys carried out in 1997, 2000 and 2005. Plots were arranged into forest types according to tree species, management system and stand structure: beech (Fagus sylvatica L. and spruce (Picea abies K. high forests, aged coppice forests and transitory crops (deciduous, evergreen oaks and beech. Diameter distribution, basal area, basal area increment, tree mortality rate and in-growth were calculated per layer (dominant, intermediate, dominated within each PMP, to point out relative contributions and changes. A range in relative annual growth was detected both within and between types over the monitored period, but an obvious reduction of annual increment was found in two/thirds of plots over 2000-04 as compared to 1997-99. Current mortality, mostly allocated into the dominated and intermediate layers, can be explained as “regular” due to overstocking and high inter-tree competition in almost all of the observed case-studies. Opposite patterns were found to occur as for stand growth vs. mortality rate between coppice forests and the other types owing to the different dynamics of tree competition in progress. Drought 2003 is the likely large-scale factor determining the reduced annual growth course over the second period.

  2. Tropospheric Column Ozone Response to ENSO in GEOS-5 Assimilation of OMI and MLS Ozone Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, Mark A.; Wargan, Krzysztof; Pawson, Steven

    2016-01-01

    We use GEOS-5 analyses of Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) ozone observations to investigate the magnitude and spatial distribution of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence on tropospheric column ozone (TCO) into the middle latitudes. This study provides the first explicit spatially resolved characterization of the ENSO influence and demonstrates coherent patterns and teleconnections impacting the TCO in the extratropics. The response is evaluated and characterized by both the variance explained and sensitivity of TCO to the Nino 3.4 index. The tropospheric response in the tropics agrees well with previous studies and verifies the analyses. A two-lobed response symmetric about the Equator in the western Pacific/Indonesian region seen in some prior studies and not in others is confirmed here. This two-lobed response is consistent with the large-scale vertical transport. We also find that the large-scale transport in the tropics dominates the response compared to the small-scale convective transport. The ozone response is weaker in the middle latitudes, but a significant explained variance of the TCO is found over several small regions, including the central United States. However, the sensitivity of TCO to the Nino 3.4 index is statistically significant over a large area of the middle latitudes. The sensitivity maxima and minima coincide with anomalous anti-cyclonic and cyclonic circulations where the associated vertical transport is consistent with the sign of the sensitivity. Also, ENSO related changes to the mean tropopause height can contribute significantly to the midlatitude response. Comparisons to a 22-year chemical transport model simulation demonstrate that these results from the 9- year assimilation are representative of the longer term. This investigation brings insight to several seemingly disparate prior studies of the El Nino influence on tropospheric ozone in the middle latitudes.

  3. Tropospheric column ozone response to ENSO in GEOS-5 assimilation of OMI and MLS ozone data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Olsen

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available We use GEOS-5 analyses of Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS ozone observations to investigate the magnitude and spatial distribution of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO influence on tropospheric column ozone (TCO into the middle latitudes. This study provides the first explicit spatially resolved characterization of the ENSO influence and demonstrates coherent patterns and teleconnections impacting the TCO in the extratropics. The response is evaluated and characterized by both the variance explained and sensitivity of TCO to the Niño 3.4 index. The tropospheric response in the tropics agrees well with previous studies and verifies the analyses. A two-lobed response symmetric about the Equator in the western Pacific/Indonesian region seen in some prior studies and not in others is confirmed here. This two-lobed response is consistent with the large-scale vertical transport. We also find that the large-scale transport in the tropics dominates the response compared to the small-scale convective transport. The ozone response is weaker in the middle latitudes, but a significant explained variance of the TCO is found over several small regions, including the central United States. However, the sensitivity of TCO to the Niño 3.4 index is statistically significant over a large area of the middle latitudes. The sensitivity maxima and minima coincide with anomalous anti-cyclonic and cyclonic circulations where the associated vertical transport is consistent with the sign of the sensitivity. Also, ENSO related changes to the mean tropopause height can contribute significantly to the midlatitude response. Comparisons to a 22-year chemical transport model simulation demonstrate that these results from the 9-year assimilation are representative of the longer term. This investigation brings insight to several seemingly disparate prior studies of the El Niño influence on tropospheric ozone in the middle latitudes.

  4. PSAC 1997 western Canada activity forecast : mid-stream 1997

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1997-01-01

    A review of drilling activity in western Canada for the final quarter of 1996 and the first quarter of 1997 was presented. This report was intended to provide service companies with a useful tool for near-term planning. The activities were categorized into 12 geographical areas that represented wells of common drilling, production and depth characteristics. The number of wells drilled by operators in each area were presented in graphic form. The forecast update examined the activity of the past two quarters and adjusted the projections for 1997 according to identifiable trends. Cost data was updated based on the revised activity projections. Projections in this report were based on the following general assumptions: (1) oil and gas prices shall remain stable for the next year, (2) no political upheavals, (3) equity capital shall be available at levels equal to 1996, and (4) technological improvements will continue, with horizontal drilling continuing to increase market share. It was projected that 13,689 wells would be drilled in 1997, up by about 1,300 new wells from 1996. Oil well drilling activity was projected to slightly decline and gas drilling activity was projected to increase during 1997. Cost data provided include only drilling and completion costs. Land and geological costs, well servicing costs and downstream facilities costs are not included. 8 tabs., 3 figs

  5. Report of Activity 1997

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menjon, Gerard

    1998-04-01

    The document is a report of activity of the Direction of Studies and Research of the France's Electricity Authority (Electricite de France) on 1997. It contains the following six main sections: 1. development; 2. environment; 3. development and managing of production-transport system; 4. production; 5. international relations; 6. future developments. The second section deals with the air and water quality, reduction of energy network impact on environment and the case of renewable energies. The following section is devoted to the research and development problems raised by the management of production-transport system. The section number four reports about the experience obtained in the operation of N4 stage, particularly, in the conception of REP 2000. Also mentioned are progress in the field of virtual reality used in professional formation, robot intervention in case of leaks in reactor vessel, multi-recycling of plutonium in PWR, etc. The fifth section reports about the international collaboration in the field of superconductivity, superconductor cables, combined cycles with integrated gasification of carbon and biomass and energy programs in Morocco and China. Finally, it is mentioned the launching of the Galaxie-server in charge with the documentation management of EDF

  6. Impacts of the Tropical Pacific Cold Tongue Mode on ENSO Diversity Under Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yang; Li, Jianping; Zhang, Wenjun; Chen, Quanliang; Feng, Juan; Zheng, Fei; Wang, Wei; Zhou, Xin

    2017-11-01

    The causes of ENSO diversity, although being of great interest in recent research, do not have a consistent explanation. This study provides a possible mechanism focused on the background change of the tropical Pacific as a response to global warming. The second empirical orthogonal function mode of the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the tropical Pacific, namely the cold tongue mode (CTM), represents the background change of the tropical Pacific under global warming. Using composite analysis with surface observations and subsurface ocean assimilation data sets, we find ENSO spatial structure diversity is closely associated with the CTM. A positive CTM tends to cool the SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific and warm the SST outside, as well as widen (narrow) zonal and meridional scales for El Niño (La Niña), and vice versa. Particularly in the positive CTM phase, the air-sea action center of El Niño moves west, resembling the spatial pattern of CP-El Niño. This westward shift of center is related to the weakened Bjerknes feedback (BF) intensity by the CTM. By suppressing the SSTA growth of El Niño in the eastern equatorial Pacific, the CTM contributes to more frequent occurrence of CP-El Niño under global warming.

  7. Influencia del fenómeno ENSO sobre la precipitación nival en el sector andino de Chile central durante el invierno

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available INFLUENCE DU PHÉNOMÈNE ENSO SUR LES PRÉCIPITATIONS NEIGEUSES DANS LE CENTRE DU CHILI ANDIN AU COURS DE L’HIVER AUSTRAL. On analyse l’influence du phénomène El Niño/Oscillation du Sud (ENSO sur les précipitations nivales dans les Andes du Chili central au cours de l’hiver. Pour cela, on a utilisé l’information obtenue sur des sites spécifiques (routes de neige situées entre 30° et 38° S et les anomalies de Température de Surface de la Mer (TSM du bloc Niño 3, comme indicateur de l’importance des événements chauds ou froids dans le Pacifique équatorial central. Au nord de 35°S, l’accumulation de neige tend à être supérieure à la normale quand l’anomalie moyenne de TSM dépasse +1°C au cours de la période mai-août. Dans ce même secteur, on enregistre une précipitation inférieure à la normale les hivers caractérisés par une anomalie de TSM inférieure à -0,5°C. Dans la zone située au sud de 35° S, l’influence du phénomène ENSO sur l’accumulation de neige n’est plus significative. Se analiza la influencia del fenómeno El Niño/Oscilación del Sur (ENSO sobre la precipitación nival en los Andes de Chile central durante el invierno. Para esto, se utiliza información de rutas de nieve localizadas entre 30° y 38° S, y de anomalías de temperatura superficial del mar (TSM en la región Niño 3 como un indicador de la magnitud de los eventos cálidos y fríos en el Pacífico ecuatorial central. En la región al norte de 35° S, la acumulación de nieve durante el invierno tiende a ser superior a lo normal cuando la magnitud de la anomalía media de TSM en el periodo mayo-agosto supera +1,0° C. En este mismo sector se verifica que durante los inviernos caracterizados por una anomalía de TSM inferior a -0,5° C, suele registrarse una precipitación nival inferior a lo normal. En el sector al sur de los 35° S, la influencia del fenómeno ENSO sobre la acumulación de nieve durante el invierno no es

  8. Licensee contractor and vendor inspection status report. Quarterly report, April 1997--June 1997

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-11-01

    This periodical covers the results of inspections performed between April 1997 and June 1997 by the NRC's Special Inspection Branch, Inspection Section, that have been distributed to the inspected organizations

  9. Regulamentação pública e conduta das firmas no sistema agroindustrial da borracha natural entre 1997 e 2000 Regulation and behavior of firms in Brazil's natural rubber agro-industrial system between 1997-2000

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Augusto Hauber Gamero

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available A necessidade de regulamentação no sistema agroindustrial (SAG da borracha natural no Brasil é evidente. Desde a metade do século, quando o país passou a importar esse produto, vários esforços governamentais vêm sendo definidos, objetivando o desenvolvimento sustentável do setor da produção agrícola nacional de borracha. No ano de 1997, criou-se uma política de subvenção direta à produção. Dada a estrutura desse SAG, associada à conjuntura do mercado internacional e a uma regulamentação falha do governo federal, começaram a surgir indícios de abuso de poder de mercado pela indústria pneumática instalada no país, principal consumidora do produto. Utilizando o arcabouço teórico da organização industrial, neste artigo se procurou levantar evidências nesse sentido.The need for regulation of Brazil’s natural rubber agro-industrial system (SAG is evident. Since the middle of the 20th century, when the country began importing rubber, many governmental efforts have been made to promote the sustainable development of Brazil’s natural rubber productive sector. In 1997, the Brazilian government created a direct subvention policy to assist rubber producers. Given the structure of Brazil’s SAG, the international rubber market, and imperfect regulation by the Federal Government, it would not be unexpected to find signs that Brazil’s largest natural rubber consumer, the domestic tire industry, has begun to abusively exercise its market power. Using the theoretical structure of Industrial Organization, this paper tries to show evidences of this abuse.

  10. Tratamento cirúrgico da atresia de vias biliares: a experiência do hospital municipal jesus, 1997-2000

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisieux Eyer de Jesus

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Analisar a indicação, resultados e limitações da portoenterostomia para o tratamento da atresia de vias biliares em hospital infantil terciário no Rio de Janeiro-RJ/Brasil. MÉTODO: Foram estudados prospectivamente oito pacientes submetidos à portoenterostomia do tipo Kasai 1, num período de três anos (1997-2000. Todos foram submetidos à antibioticoterapia profilática, uso de colerético, reavaliação médica mensal nos primeiros seis meses de seguimento e reavaliação laboratorial, ultra-sonográfica e através de endoscopia digestiva alta em prazos programados. RESULTADOS: Em cinco pacientes foi possível obter drenagem biliar estável e satisfatória por > 6 meses pós-operatórios. Quatro faleceram no período de observação (um por insuficiência hepática, um por colangite, dois por hemorragias digestivas, inclusive os três pacientes em que não foi obtida drenagem biliar satisfatória. Quatro persistem em bom estado geral, anictéricos, um deles com fibrose hepática residual grave e provável indicação futura de transplante hepático. Detectamos problemas graves com relação ao encaminhamento tardio de doentes para tratamento e para disponibilizar transplante hepático quando necessário. CONCLUSÕES: Os resultados da portoenterostomia são compensadores quando é possível obter bom débito biliar no pós-operatório. Em pacientes em que não é obtida boa drenagem biliar o pós-operatório é tormentoso e o óbito é esperado até o segundo ano de vida sem o uso de transplante hepático. É necessário disponibilizar transplante hepático pediátrico em nosso meio e conscientizar a comunidade médica para o encaminhamento precoce de bebês ictéricos além dos primeiros 15 dias de vida para investigação e tratamento em unidades especializadas.

  11. Licensee contractor and vendor inspection status report. Quarterly report, April 1997--June 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-11-01

    This periodical covers the results of inspections performed between April 1997 and June 1997 by the NRC`s Special Inspection Branch, Inspection Section, that have been distributed to the inspected organizations.

  12. 2000年生命伦理学吉汉宣言

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈仁彪; 邱仁宗

    2001-01-01

    @@ 在世界生命伦理学大会(2000年6月20~24日,西班牙吉市汉)结束时,国际生命伦理学会(International Society of Bioethics,SIBI)科学委员会坚决主张科技必须考虑公共利益. 1 再承认 (1)1948年12月10日联合国大会公布的全球人权宣言. (2)1997年11月11日联合国教科文组织(UNESCO)的全球人类基因组与人权宣言. (3)1997年4月4日欧洲理事会人权与生物医学阿斯杜利阿斯公约.

  13. Licensee contractor and vendor inspection status report. Quarterly report, October 1997--December 1997

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-04-01

    The periodical covers the results of inspections performed between October 1997 and December 1997 by the NRC's Quality Assurance, Vendor Inspection and Maintenance Branch that have been distributed to the inspected organizations

  14. Evaluation of data of questionnaire Nutrition and Health (1997-1998) concerning the topic 'What consumers think about food irradiation?'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szabo, A.S.; Tolnay, P.

    1998-01-01

    Detailed information is presented about the evaluation of data of the title questionnaire. The data are based on 2000 questionnaires distributed and collected in 1997 and 1998. Evaluation is carried out taking into account the following parameters: age, sex, education level, living place and financial income. It is concluded that people have a rather limited information about food irradiation

  15. Las campañas negativas en las elecciones de 2000 y 2006 en México

    OpenAIRE

    Ana Yely Pérez Dámazo

    2014-01-01

    En este artículo se a naliza la naturaleza de las campañas negativas llevadas a cabo en México en d os elecciones presidenciales ( 2000 y 2006 ). El objetivo es evidenciar que s u difundida utilización coincide con el desarrollo de dos procesos electorales peculiares : el de la transición del partido de E stado a otro de oposición (2000) y la de su consolidación como gobierno (2006). Con base en las propuestas teóricas de Shiv (1997), Lau (1999) y Finkel (1998) , se descri be el desarrollo de...

  16. CPC - Climate Weather Linkage: El Niño Southern Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teleconnections AO NAO PNA AAO Blocking Storm Tracks Climate Glossary Outreach About Us Our Mission Who We Are . P., and A. Kumar, 2000: Understanding and predicting extratropical teleconnections related to ENSO extratropical circulation anomalies during the 1986-1989 ENSO cycle. J. Climate, 6, 595-616. Ropelewski, C. F

  17. Investigations of microbial regeneration of abandoned mining land. Project 1: Leachate reduction in ore mining regions with high levels of heavy metal sulfides. Final report 2000; Untersuchungen zur mikrobiellen Sicherung von Bergbaualtlasten. Teilvorhaben 1: Laugungsreduzierung in Schwermetallsulfid-belasteten Erzbergbauregionen. Abschlussbericht 2000

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sand, W.; Jozsa, P.G.; Schippers, A.

    2001-02-01

    The project was aimed at the development of an optimized catalogue of measures for regeneration and reclamation of polluted mining land. Reports were published in 1995, 1996, 1997 and 1998. This report summarizes the work of 1999 and 2000. A catalogue of measures is proposed on the basis of the results. [German] Ziel des Projektes ist die Erarbeitung eines optimierten Massnahmenpaketes zur Sicherung und Sanierung von Bergbaualtlasten, die durch mikrobiologische Sauerwasserbildung und Schwermetallmobilisierung Boeden und Gewaesser kontaminieren. Die Problematik und der Stand der Kenntnisse sowie erste Ergebnisse der Bestandsaufnahmen wurden in den Jahresberichten 1995 und 1996 sowie im Fortsetzungsantrag ausfuehrlich dargestellt. Ueber die Versuchsergebnisse der Jahre 1997 und 1998 wurde bereits berichtet. Im Folgenden werden die in den Jahren 1999 und 2000 erzielten Ergebnisse zusammengefasst und eine Bewertung der Projektarbeit vorgenommen. Abschliessend wird ein Massnahmenkatalog vorgeschlagen, der bei der Planung und Durchfuehrung von Sanierungsaufgaben an Bergbaualtlasten den Anwendern die aus mikrobiologischer Sicht zu beruecksichtigenden Aspekte mit Loesungsmoeglichkeiten gebuendelt zur Verfuegung stellt. (orig.)

  18. The Fortymile caribou herd: novel proposed management and relevant biology, 1992-1997

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodney D. Boertje

    2000-04-01

    Full Text Available A diverse, international Fortymile Planning Team wrote a novel Fortymile caribou herd {Rangifer tarandus granti Management Plan in 1995 (Boertje & Gardner, 1996: 56-77. The primary goal of this plan is to begin restoring the Fortymile herd to its former range; >70% of the herd's former range was abandoned as herd size declined. Specific objectives call for increasing the Fortymile herd by at least 5-10% annually from 1998-2002. We describe demographics of the herd, factors limiting the herd, and condition of the herd and range during 1992-1997. These data were useful in proposing management actions for the herd and should be instrumental in future evaluations of the plan's actions. The following points summarize herd biology relevant to management proposed by the Fortymile Planning Team: 1. Herd numbers remained relatively stable during 1990-1995 (about 22 000-23 000 caribou. On 21 June 1996 we counted about 900 additional caribou in the herd, probably a result of increased pregnancy rates in 1996. On 26 June 1997 we counted about 2500 additional caribou in the herd, probably a result of recruitment of the abundant 1996 calves and excellent early survival of the 1997 calves. The Team deemed that implementing management actions during a period of natural growth would be opportune. 2. Wolf (Canis lupus and grizzly bear (Ursus arctos predation were the most important sources of mortality, despite over a decade of the most liberal regulations in the state for harvesting of wolves and grizzly bears. Wolves were the most important predator. Wolves killed between 2000 and 3000 caribou calves annually during this study and between 1000 and 2300 older caribou; 1200-1900 calves were killed from May through September. No significant differences in annual wolf predation rates on calves or adults were observed between 1994 and early winter 1997. Reducing wolf predation was judged by the Team to be the most manageable way to help hasten or stimulate

  19. Role of changed Indo-Pacific atmospheric circulation in the recent disconnect between the Indian summer monsoon and ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feba, F.; Ashok, K.; Ravichandran, M.

    2018-04-01

    We explore the decadal variability of teleconnection from tropical Pacific to the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) using various observational and Reanalysis datasets for the period 1958-2008. In confirmation with the earlier findings, we find that the interannual correlations between the various SST indices of ENSO and ISMR have continued to weaken. Interestingly, we find that even the robust lead correlations of the tropical pacific warm-water-volume with ISMR have weakened since late 1970s. Our analysis suggests that there is a relative intensification of the cross-equatorial flow from the southern hemisphere into the equatorial Indian Ocean associated with ISMR due to strenghtening of Mascarene High. Further, a shift in the surface wind circulation associated with monsoon over the northern pacific since late 1970s has resulted in a strenghtened cyclonic seasonal circulation south-east of Japan. These changed circulation features are a shift from the known circulation-signatures that efficiently teleconnect El Niño forcing to South Asia. These recent changes effectively weakened the teleconnection of the El Niño to ISMR.

  20. Un análisis de la estructura termal de la estación costera 'La Libertad' y su relación con los eventos ENSO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available ANALYSE DE LA STRUCTURE THERMIQUE DE L’OCEAN A LA STATION «LA LIBERTAD» ET DE SA RELATION AVEC L’ENSO. L’Institut Océanographique Militaire (INOCAR assure tous les 20 jours, depuis 1990, des mesures dans une colonne d’eau de 100 m de profondeur, à dix milles au large du port équatorien de La Libertad, situé dans la Péninsule de Santa Helena. On y observe des ondes équatoriales qui provoquent une augmentation du niveau moyen de l’eau et un enfoncement des isothermes, ce qui permet de considérer que leur distribution est liée à l’apparition des événements ENSO. Nous avons déterminé par ailleurs la relation entre le niveau moyen de l’océan et la profondeur des isothermes. Pour cela nous avons choisi l’isotherme de 20°C que l’on supposera représentative de la distribution thermique (de l’océan dans cette station côtière. El Instituto Oceanográfico de la Armada (INOCAR mantiene desde 1990 hasta la fecha una estación costera a 10 millas náuticas frente a las costa del puerto de La Libertad (Península de Santa Elena, en la que se efectúa un muestreo de toda la columna de agua desde la superficie hasta los 100 m de profundidad, cada 20 días. Del análisis preliminar se ha podido observar que la distribución de las isotermas responde a la presencia de los eventos ENSO como se conoce, durante un episodio ENSO la costa del Ecuador es visitada por ondas ecuatoriales, las cuales a su paso producen una elevación del nivel medio del mar y una profundización de las isotermas. Por lo que se considera que esta distribución de las isotermas guarda relación con la ocurrencia de los eventos ENSO frente a nuestras costas. Por otro lado se determina la relación existente entre el nivel del mar y la profundización de las isotermas. Para este efecto, se simplificó la distribución térmica de la estación costera de La Libertad, seleccionando la isoterma de 20°C, por considerarla representativa de la distribución t

  1. Hydro-climatic variability over the Andes of Colombia associated with ENSO: a review of climatic processes and their impact on one of the Earth's most important biodiversity hotspots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poveda, Germán; Álvarez, Diana M.; Rueda, Óscar A.

    2011-06-01

    The hydro-climatic variability of the Colombian Andes associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is reviewed using records of rainfall, river discharges, soil moisture, and a vegetation index (NDVI) as a surrogate for evapotranspiration. Anomalies in the components of the surface water balance during both phases of ENSO are quantified in terms of their sign, timing, and magnitude. During El Niño (La Niña), the region experiences negative (positive) anomalies in rainfall, river discharges (average and extremes), soil moisture, and NDVI. ENSO's effects are phase-locked to the seasonal cycle, being stronger during December-February, and weaker during March-May. Besides, rainfall and river discharges anomalies show that the ENSO signal exhibits a westerly wave-like propagation, being stronger (weaker) and earlier (later) over the western (eastern) Andes. Soil moisture anomalies are land-cover type dependant, but overall they are enhanced by ENSO, showing very low values during El Niño (mainly during dry seasons), but saturation values during La Niña. A suite of large-scale and regional mechanisms cooperating at the ocean-atmosphere-land system are reviewed to explaining the identified hydro-climatic anomalies. This review contributes to an understanding of the hydro-climatic framework of a region identified as the most critical hotspot for biodiversity on Earth, and constitutes a wake-up call for scientists and policy-makers alike, to take actions and mobilize resources and minds to prevent the further destruction of the region's valuable hydrologic and biodiversity resources and ecosystems. It also sheds lights towards the implementation of strategies and adaptation plans to coping with threats from global environmental change.

  2. Comportamiento de las masas de agua en el Golfo Dulce, Costa Rica durante El Niño (1997 - 1998

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco A Quesada-Alpízar

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available Los patrones de circulación oceánica, la estructura vertical de la columna de agua y la posición vertical de la termoclina son factores de gran importancia para comprender la distribución vertical de los organismos planctónicos en los océanos. Este trabajo estudia la hidrografía del Golfo Dulce, un fiordo tropical en el Pacífico Oriental Tropical (POT, y la posible influencia sobre dicho sistema del ENOS 1997-1998. Se seleccionó un total de cinco estaciones de muestreo, para las cuales se obtuvo, mensualmente, perfiles verticales de temperatura (ºC, salinidad (‰ y oxígeno disuelto (mg O2 /l durante un periodo de dos años. Los resultados muestran una fuerte estratificación vertical de la columna de agua asociada a la morfología de la cuenca del Golfo Dulce y a la incidencia del fenómeno ENOS. Además, se determinó que existen diferencias significativas en las características hidrográficas de las partes interna y externa de la cuenca del Golfo Dulce. Finalmente, se detectaron eventos bianuales de entrada de agua oceánica fría, con salinidad y concentraciones de oxígeno disuelto relativamente altas, a la cuenca. Estos eventos podrían estar asociados al sistema de afloramiento costero del Golfo de PanamáIn order to understand the vertical distribution of planktonic organisms in the oceans, it is important to consider a number of factors. Including oceanic circulation patterns, the vertical structure of the water column and the vertical position of the thermocline. This study examines the hydrography of Golfo Dulce, a tropical fjord -like embayment in the Eastern Tropical Pacific, and the influence of the 1997-1998 ENSO on the system. Five sampling stations were selected and visited once a month for two years in order to obtain vertical profiles of temperature (ºC, salinity (‰ and dissolved oxygen (mg O² /l. Results show a strong vertical stratification of the water column associated to the morphology of Golfo Dulce

  3. Massive bleaching of coral reefs induced by the 2010 ENSO, Puerto Cabello, Venezuela

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos del Mónaco

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO has generated global coral massive bleaching. The aim of this work was to evaluate the massive bleaching of coral reefs in Puerto Cabello, Venezuela derived from ENSO 2010. We evaluated the bleaching of reefs at five localities both at three and five meter depth. The coral cover and densities of colonies were estimated. We recorded living coral cover, number and diameter of bleached and nonbleached colonies of each coral species. The colonies were classified according to the proportion of bleached area. Satellite images (Modis Scar were analyzed for chlorophyll-a concentration and temperature in August, September, October and November from 2008-2010. Precipitation, wind speed and air temperature information was evaluated in meteorological data for 2009 and 2010. A total of 58.3% of colonies, belonging to 11 hexacoral species, were affected and the greatest responses were observed in Colpophyllia natans, Montastraea annularis and Montastraea faveolata. The most affected localities were closer to the mainland and had a bleached proportion up to 62.73±36.55%, with the highest proportion of affected colonies, whereas the farthest locality showed 20.25±14.00% bleached and the smallest proportion. The salinity in situ varied between 30 and 33ppm and high levels of turbidity were observed. According to the satellite images, in 2010 the surface water temperatura reached 31ºC in August, September and October, and resulted higher than those registered in 2008 and 2009. Regionally, chlorophyll values were higher in 2010 than in 2008 and 2009. The meteorological data indicated that precipitation in November 2010 was three times higher than in November 2009. Massive coral bleaching occurred due to a three month period of high temperatures followed by one month of intense ENSO-associated precipitation. However, this latter factor was likely the trigger because of the bleaching gradient observed. Rev. Biol. Trop. 60 (2

  4. Impacts of forest to urban land conversion and ENSO phase on water quality of a public water supply reservoir

    Science.gov (United States)

    We used coupled watershed and reservoir models to evaluate the impacts of deforestation and ENSO phase on drinking water quality. Source water total organic carbon (TOC) is especially important due to the potential for production of carcinogenic disinfection byproducts (DBPs). The Environmental Flui...

  5. Population growth, movements, and status of the Nushagak Peninsula Caribou Herd following reintroduction, 1988 - 2000

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gail H. Collins

    2003-04-01

    Full Text Available Barren ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus were reintroduced to the Nushagak Peninsula, Alaska in February of 1988 after an absence of more than 100 years. Since reintroduction, herd growth and population dynamics have been monitored closely. At this time, there has been no significant dispersal from the herds' core range. The Nushagak Peninsula Caribou Herd (NPCH grew rapidly from 146 reintroduced individuals to over 1000 in 13 years. Dramatic mean annual growth during the first 6 years (1988-1994 of 38% (r = 0.32 can be attributed to the high percentage of females in the initial reintroduction, high calf production and survival, exceptional range conditions, few predators, and no hunting. However, the populations' exceptional growth (peak counts of 1400 slowed and stabilized between 1996¬1998 and then decreased between 1998 and 2000. Size, body condition and weights of calves captured in 2000 were significantly lower than those captured in 1995 and 1997. Although calf production also decreased from close to 100% (1990-1995 to about 91% (1996-2000, overall calf survival continued to be high. Legal harvest began in 1995, and harvest reports have accounted for approximately 3% of population mortality annually. Although brown bears (Ursus arctos and wolves (Canis lupus are present, the extent of predation is unknown. Mean home range of the NPCH was 674 km2 and group sizes were greatest during post-calving aggregation in July (mean = 127. Caribou population density on the Nushagak Peninsula reached approximately 1.2 caribou/km2 in 1997 before declining to about 1.0 caribou/km2. A range survey in 1994 noted only trace utilization of lichens on the Nushagak Peninsula by caribou. A subsequent survey in 1999 found moderate to severe utilization in 46% of plots, suggesting the reintroduced herd was beginning to alter range condition. Between 1997 and 2000, both calf production and condition of 10-month-old calves declined. Calving has also been delayed

  6. 1997 annual report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-01-01

    Financial highlights for 1997 showed that Imperial Oil's earnings totaled a record $847 million, shareholders returns reached 47 per cent and earnings per share rose by 23 per cent, increasing for the sixth consecutive year. Production and financial performance were presented by major company divisions, including natural resources, petroleum products, chemicals, and corporate earnings. Overall, gains on asset sales, increased production from Cold Lake, improved industry margins and increased sales of petroleum products and record earnings levels in chemicals contributed to an excellent year for the company. Net bitumen production at Cold Lake increased to 108,000 barrels per day from 73,000 in 1996 as a result of improved operating performance from phases 1 to 8 of Cold Lake and the first full year of production from phases 9 and 10. Capital and exploration expenditures in 1997 were $639 million (up from $564 million in 1996). Research and development expenditures, directed mainly at developing better methods for heavy oil recovery, also showed an increase (to $61 million in 1997 from $46 million in 1996). Employment in 1997 was 7,096, down from 7,483 in 1996. Asset sales in natural resources and productivity programs in the refining and marketing organizations were the principal reasons for the decline. tabs., figs

  7. Interdecadal modulation of the relationship between ENSO, IPO and precipitation: insights from tree rings in Australia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heinrich, Ingo [School of Resources, Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT (Australia); Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Climate Dynamics and Landscape Evolution, Potsdam (Germany); Weidner, Kathrin [Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Climate Dynamics and Landscape Evolution, Potsdam (Germany); Forschungszentrum Juelich GmbH, Institute for Chemistry and Dynamics of the Geosphere, Juelich (Germany); Helle, Gerhard [Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Climate Dynamics and Landscape Evolution, Potsdam (Germany); Vos, Heinz [Forschungszentrum Juelich GmbH, Institute for Chemistry and Dynamics of the Geosphere, Juelich (Germany); Lindesay, Janette; Banks, John C.G. [School of Resources, Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT (Australia)

    2009-07-15

    Australian climate-proxy reconstructions based on tree rings from tropical and subtropical forests have not been achieved so far due to the rarity of species producing anatomically distinct annual growth rings. Our study identifies the Australian Red Cedar (Toona ciliata) as one of the most promising tree species for tree-ring research in Australasia because this species exhibits distinct annual tree rings, a prerequisite for high quality tropical dendroclimatology. Based on these preliminary studies, we were able, for the first time in subtropical and tropical Australia, to develop a statistically robust, precisely dated and annually resolved chronology back to AD1854. We show that the variability in ring widths of T. ciliata is mainly dependent on annual precipitation. The developed proxy data series contains both high- and low-frequency climate signals which can be associated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). A comparison of different data sets (Brisbane precipitation, tree rings, coral luminescence record from the Great Barrier Reef, ENSO and IPO) revealed non-stationary correlation patterns throughout the twentieth century but little instability between the new tree-ring chronology and Brisbane precipitation. (orig.)

  8. Impacts of winter NPO on subsequent winter ENSO: sensitivity to the definition of NPO index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shangfeng; Wu, Renguang

    2018-01-01

    This study investigates the linkage between boreal winter North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and subsequent winter El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) based on seven different NPO indices. Results show that the influence of winter NPO on the subsequent winter El Niño is sensitive to how the NPO is defined. A significant NPO-El Niño connection is obtained when the NPO-related anomalous cyclone over the subtropical North Pacific extends to near-equatorial regions. The anomalous cyclone induces warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies through modulating surface heat fluxes. These warm SST anomalies are able to maintain into the following spring and summer through an air-sea coupled process and in turn induce significant westerly wind anomalies over the tropical western Pacific. In contrast, the NPO-El Niño relationship is unclear when the NPO-related anomalous cyclone over the subtropical North Pacific is confined to off-equatorial regions and cannot induce significant warm SST anomalies over the subtropical North Pacific. The present study suggests that definitions of NPO should be taken into account when using NPO to predict ENSO. In particular, we recommend defining the NPO index based on the empirical orthogonal function technique over appropriate region that does not extend too far north.

  9. Sub-seasonal prediction of significant wave heights over the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans, part II: The impact of ENSO and MJO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, Ravi P.; Kinter, James L.; Shin, Chul-Su

    2018-03-01

    This study evaluates the effect of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) events on 14-day mean significant wave height (SWH) at 3 weeks lead time (Wk34) over the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2). The WAVEWATCH-3 (WW3) model is forced with daily 10m-winds predicted by a modified version of CFSv2 that is initialized with multiple ocean analyses in both January and May for 1979-2008. A significant anomaly correlation of predicted and observed SWH anomalies (SWHA) at Wk34 lead-time is found over portions of the domain, including the central western Pacific, South China Sea (SCS), Bay of Bengal (BOB) and southern Indian Ocean (IO) in January cases, and over BOB, equatorial western Pacific, the Maritime Continent and southern IO in May cases. The model successfully predicts almost all the important features of the observed composite SWHA during El Niño events in January, including negative SWHA in the central IO where westerly wind anomalies act on an easterly mean state, and positive SWHA over the southern Ocean (SO) where westerly wind anomalies act on a westerly mean state. The model successfully predicts the sign and magnitude of SWHA at Wk34 lead-time in May over the BOB and SCS in composites of combined phases-2-3 and phases-6-7 of MJO. The observed leading mode of SWHA in May and the third mode of SWHA in January are influenced by the combined effects of ENSO and MJO. Based on spatial and temporal correlations, the spatial patterns of SWHA in the model at Wk34 in both January and May are in good agreement with the observations over the equatorial western Pacific, equatorial and southern IO, and SO.

  10. Swisswoodhouse -a building for the 2000-Watt Society; Swisswoodhouse - ein Gebaeude fuer die 2000-Watt-Gesellschaft - Synthesebericht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Menz, T.; Wallbaum, H.; Hardziewski, R.; Graf, S.; Trachsel-Gerber, N.; Koschenz, M.; Guentert, P.

    2009-05-15

    This report deals with a building conceived to meet the requirements of the Swiss '2000-Watt Society' concept. The aims of the project are discussed which feature the demonstration of a forward-looking architectural layout, comfortable and healthy living, environmentally compatible and low resource consumption, standardisation and cost reduction. The report contains seven sections: Basics of the '2000-Watt Society' concept, optimisation of the whole building system, investor-orientated rating, use-oriented monitoring system, the development of the building, standardised building technology and, finally, a description of this pilot project.

  11. Initialization and Predictability of a Coupled ENSO Forecast Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Dake; Zebiak, Stephen E.; Cane, Mark A.; Busalacchi, Antonio J.

    1997-01-01

    The skill of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model in predicting ENSO has recently been improved using a new initialization procedure in which initial conditions are obtained from the coupled model, nudged toward observations of wind stress. The previous procedure involved direct insertion of wind stress observations, ignoring model feedback from ocean to atmosphere. The success of the new scheme is attributed to its explicit consideration of ocean-atmosphere coupling and the associated reduction of "initialization shock" and random noise. The so-called spring predictability barrier is eliminated, suggesting that such a barrier is not intrinsic to the real climate system. Initial attempts to generalize the nudging procedure to include SST were not successful; possible explanations are offered. In all experiments forecast skill is found to be much higher for the 1980s than for the 1970s and 1990s, suggesting decadal variations in predictability.

  12. The role of the intra-daily SST variability in the Indian monsoon variability and monsoon-ENSO-IOD relationships in a global coupled model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Terray, Pascal; Kamala, Kakitha; Masson, Sebastien; Madec, Gurvan [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, LOCEAN/IPSL, CNRS/IRD/UPMC/MNHN, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Sahai, A.K. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India); Luo, Jing-Jia; Yamagata, Toshio [RIGC, Yokohama (Japan)

    2012-08-15

    The impact of diurnal SST coupling and vertical oceanic resolution on the simulation of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and its relationships with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events are studied through the analysis of four integrations of a high resolution Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM), but with different configurations. The only differences between the four integrations are the frequency of coupling between the ocean and atmosphere for the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) parameter (2 vs. 24 h coupling) and/or the vertical oceanic resolution (31 vs. 301 levels) in the CGCM. Although the summer mean tropical climate is reasonably well captured with all the configurations of the CGCM and is not significantly modified by changing the frequency of SST coupling from once to twelve per day, the ISM-ENSO teleconnections are rather poorly simulated in the two simulations in which SST is exchanged only once per day, independently of the vertical oceanic resolution used in the CGCM. Surprisingly, when 2 h SST coupling is implemented in the CGCM, the ISM-ENSO teleconnection is better simulated, particularly, the complex lead-lag relationships between the two phenomena, in which a weak ISM occurs during the developing phase of an El Nino event in the Pacific, are closely resembling the observed ones. Evidence is presented to show that these improvements are related to changes in the characteristics of the model's El Nino which has a more realistic evolution in its developing and decaying phases, a stronger amplitude and a shift to lower frequencies when a 2-hourly SST coupling strategy is implemented without any significant changes in the basic state of the CGCM. As a consequence of these improvements in ENSO variability, the lead relationships between Indo-Pacific SSTs and ISM rainfall resemble the observed patterns more closely, the ISM-ENSO teleconnection is strengthened during boreal summer and ISM rainfall power spectrum

  13. Epidemiology and surveillance of pertussis among infants in Catalonia, Spain, during 1997-2001.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moraga, Fernando; Roca, Joan; Méndez, Cristina; Rodrigo, Carlos; Pineda, Valentí; Martinez, Antoni; Baraibar, Romà; Boronat, Mercedes

    2005-06-01

    Despite high levels of vaccination coverage in Spain and Catalonia (98% in 2002), pertussis is a significant cause of morbidity among infants. The study aim was to estimate the incidence of hospitalizations for pertussis among infants from 1997 through 2001 in Catalonia. A retrospective review of records for patients <12 months of age with a diagnosis of pertussis (International Classification of Diseases, 9th revision, code 033) at discharge from 11 Catalonian hospitals was performed. Three hundred forty-six patients were identified, 62 (1997), 28 (1998), 59 (1999), 150 (2000) and 47 (2001), of whom 284 (82%) were <4 months of age. The incidence of hospitalizations because of whooping cough from 1997 through 2001 in Catalonia was estimated at 118 cases per 100,000 inhabitants <12 months of age. Symptoms included paroxysmal cough (95%), cyanosis (67.9%), vomiting (36.7%) and apneic episodes (27.7%). Three infants (0.8%) died, all <2 months of age. Two hundred thirty-four patients (67.6%) were unvaccinated (222 patients were <3 months of age). Six patients (1.7%) were fully vaccinated (3 doses). Considering that only 220 patients <12 months of age were reported through the Catalonian Notification System in 1997-2001, at least 126 hospitalizations (36.4%) for pertussis were not reported to this system (mean difference per year, 32.6%; range, 8.4-56%). In this study, hospitalizations exceeded the number of notifications by at least 32.6%; therefore, the real incidence is likely to be greatly underestimated. Pertussis incidence remains high among infants, most of whom are <4 months of age and have had no or 1 dose of vaccine.

  14. Hydro-climatic variability over the Andes of Colombia associated with ENSO: a review of climatic processes and their impact on one of the Earth's most important biodiversity hotspots

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poveda, German; Alvarez, Diana M. [Universidad Nacional de Colombia, School of Geosciences and Environment, Medellin (Colombia); Rueda, Oscar A. [Universidad Nacional de Colombia, School of Geosciences and Environment, Medellin (Colombia); Grupo HTM, Medellin (Colombia)

    2011-06-15

    The hydro-climatic variability of the Colombian Andes associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is reviewed using records of rainfall, river discharges, soil moisture, and a vegetation index (NDVI) as a surrogate for evapotranspiration. Anomalies in the components of the surface water balance during both phases of ENSO are quantified in terms of their sign, timing, and magnitude. During El Nino (La Nina), the region experiences negative (positive) anomalies in rainfall, river discharges (average and extremes), soil moisture, and NDVI. ENSO's effects are phase-locked to the seasonal cycle, being stronger during December-February, and weaker during March-May. Besides, rainfall and river discharges anomalies show that the ENSO signal exhibits a westerly wave-like propagation, being stronger (weaker) and earlier (later) over the western (eastern) Andes. Soil moisture anomalies are land-cover type dependant, but overall they are enhanced by ENSO, showing very low values during El Nino (mainly during dry seasons), but saturation values during La Nina. A suite of large-scale and regional mechanisms cooperating at the ocean-atmosphere-land system are reviewed to explaining the identified hydro-climatic anomalies. This review contributes to an understanding of the hydro-climatic framework of a region identified as the most critical hotspot for biodiversity on Earth, and constitutes a wake-up call for scientists and policy-makers alike, to take actions and mobilize resources and minds to prevent the further destruction of the region's valuable hydrologic and biodiversity resources and ecosystems. It also sheds lights towards the implementation of strategies and adaptation plans to coping with threats from global environmental change. (orig.)

  15. ANSTO - Annual Report 1996-1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-09-01

    Highlights of achievements during 1996-1997 at the Australian Nuclear Science and technology (ANSTO) include: release of the new ANSTO Strategic Plan for the period till June 2000 and the establishment of a Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) of the Board. In accordance with the Strategic Plan, ANSTO has continued to focus its activities in six core business areas. The major outcomes and outputs of this work are outlined. The majority of ANSTO strategic research was directed at several topics launched during the year, including: international cooperative research to enhance safety of nuclear facilities and safeguards for nuclear materials, environmental dynamics, global climate change, radioactive waste management, ecological sustainability of the mining and mineral industries, radionuclides and radiopharmaceuticals for the 21st century and the design and process of novel interfaces. During the year major upgrades were made to he National Medical Cyclotron (NMC) and the Australian National Tandem Accelerator for Applied Research (ANTARES). The Annual Report documents the uses of these facilities by universities, industry, medicine and Government. Details are also provided of the organization development and support which support the core scientific areas. The financial statement for the year under review is also included tabs, ills, figs.

  16. ANSTO - Annual Report 1996-1997

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-09-01

    Highlights of achievements during 1996-1997 at the Australian Nuclear Science and technology (ANSTO) include: release of the new ANSTO Strategic Plan for the period till June 2000 and the establishment of a Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) of the Board. In accordance with the Strategic Plan, ANSTO has continued to focus its activities in six core business areas. The major outcomes and outputs of this work are outlined. The majority of ANSTO strategic research was directed at several topics launched during the year, including: international cooperative research to enhance safety of nuclear facilities and safeguards for nuclear materials, environmental dynamics, global climate change, radioactive waste management, ecological sustainability of the mining and mineral industries, radionuclides and radiopharmaceuticals for the 21st century and the design and process of novel interfaces. During the year major upgrades were made to he National Medical Cyclotron (NMC) and the Australian National Tandem Accelerator for Applied Research (ANTARES). The Annual Report documents the uses of these facilities by universities, industry, medicine and Government. Details are also provided of the organization development and support which support the core scientific areas. The financial statement for the year under review is also included

  17. The Child's Tantrum: El Nino. The Origin of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Picault, Joel; Hackert, Eric; Busalacchi, Antonio; Murtugudde, Ragu; Lagerloef, Gary

    2000-01-01

    In 1997, a child's tantrums caught the world's attention. These tantrums took the form not of crying and foot stamping, but of droughts and floods. Obviously, this was no ordinary child. It was, in fact, The Child, or El Nino, as it was, named in the late 1800s by South American observers, who noted that its timing coincided with the Christmas holiday. El Nino is a reversal in sea surface temperature (SST) distributions that occurs once every few years in the tropical Pacific. When it coincides with a cyclical shift in air pressure, known as the Southern Oscillation, normal weather patterns are drastically altered. The combined phenomenon is known as El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Although ENSO is a regular phenomenon, it was unusually strong in 1997. It produced heavy rainfall and floods in California and bestowed spring-like temperatures on the Midwest during the winter. These drastic changes in normal weather patterns captured the public imagination, from news reports to jokes on late-night talk shows. Naturally, people wanted to. know as much, about El Nino as possible. Fortunately, scientists had at their disposal new satellites and ocean sensors that provided an unprecedented level of information. Consequently, not only was the 1997 ENSO the strongest in recent memory, but it was also the most thoroughly studied. Prominent groups such as the NASA Seasonalto-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) combined numerous aspects of climate modeling into a single, predictive endeavor.

  18. Numerical Study on Interdecadal Modulations of ENSO-related Spring Rainfall over South China by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    MAO, J.; WU, X.

    2017-12-01

    The spatio-temporal variations of eastern China spring rainfall are identified via empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of rain-gauge (gridded) precipitation datasets for the period 1958-2013 (1920-2013). The interannual variations of the first two leading EOF modes are linked with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with this linkage being modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The EOF1 mode, characterized by predominant rainfall anomalies from the Yangtze River to North China (YNC), is more likely associated with out-of-phase PDO-ENSO events [i.e., El Niño during cold PDO (EN_CPDO) and La Niña during warm PDO (LN_WPDO)]. The sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) distributions of EN_CPDO (LN_WPDO) events induce a significant anomalous anticyclone (cyclone) over the western North Pacific stretching northwards to the Korean Peninsula and southern Japan, resulting in anomalous southwesterlies (northeasterlies) prevailing over eastern China and above-normal (below-normal) rainfall over YNC. In contrast, EOF2 exhibits a dipole pattern with predominantly positive rainfall anomalies over southern China along with negative anomalies over YNC, which is more likely connected to in-phase PDO-ENSO events [i.e., El Niño during warm PDO (EN_WPDO) and La Niña during cold PDO (LN_CPDO)]. EN_WPDO (LN_CPDO) events force a southwest-northeast oriented dipole-like circulation pattern leading to significant anomalous southwesterlies (northeasterlies) and above-normal (below-normal) rainfall over southern China. Numerical experiments with the CAM5 model forced by the SSTA patterns of EN_WPDO and EN_CPDO events reproduce reasonably well the corresponding anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns and spring rainfall modes over eastern China, validating the related mechanisms.

  19. Water table depth fluctuations during ENSO phenomenon on different tropical peat swamp forest land covers in Katingan, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossita, A.; Witono, A.; Darusman, T.; Lestari, D. P.; Risdiyanto, I.

    2018-03-01

    As it is the main role to maintain hydrological function, peatland has been a limelight since drainage construction for agriculture evolved. Drainage construction will decrease water table depth (WTD) and result in CO2 emission release to the atmosphere. Regardless of human intervention, WTD fluctuations can be affected by seasonal climate and climate variability, foremost El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study aims to determine the correlation between rainfall in Katingan and ENSO index, analyze the pattern of WTD fluctuation of open area and forest area in 2015 (during very strong El Niño) and 2016 (during weak La Niña), calculate the WTD trendline slope during the dry season, and rainfall and WTD correlation. The result showed that open area has a sharper slope of decreasing or increasing WTD when entering the dry, compared to the forest area. Also, it is found that very strong El Niño in 2015 generated a pattern of more extreme decreasing WTD during the dry season than weak La Niña in 2016.

  20. The IOD-ENSO precursory teleconnection over the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean: dynamics and long-term trends under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Dongliang; Hu, Xiaoyue; Xu, Peng; Zhao, Xia; Masumoto, Yukio; Han, Weiqing

    2018-01-01

    The dynamics of the teleconnection between the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the tropical Indian Ocean and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean at the time lag of one year are investigated using lag correlations between the oceanic anomalies in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean in fall and those in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean in the following winter-fall seasons in the observations and in high-resolution global ocean model simulations. The lag correlations suggest that the IOD-forced interannual transport anomalies of the Indonesian Throughflow generate thermocline anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific Ocean, which propagate to the east to induce ocean-atmosphere coupled evolution leading to ENSO. In comparison, lag correlations between the surface zonal wind anomalies over the western equatorial Pacific in fall and the Indo-Pacific oceanic anomalies at time lags longer than a season are all insignificant, suggesting the short memory of the atmospheric bridge. A linear continuously stratified model is used to investigate the dynamics of the oceanic connection between the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. The experiments suggest that interannual equatorial Kelvin waves from the Indian Ocean propagate into the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the Makassar Strait and the eastern Indonesian seas with a penetration rate of about 10%-15% depending on the baroclinic modes. The IOD-ENSO teleconnection is found to get stronger in the past century or so. Diagnoses of the CMIP5 model simulations suggest that the increased teleconnection is associated with decreased Indonesian Throughflow transports in the recent century, which is found sensitive to the global warming forcing.

  1. Storage monitoring systems for the year 2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nilsen, C.; Pollock, R.

    1997-01-01

    In September 1993, President Clinton stated the US would ensure that its fissile material meet the highest standards of safety, security, and international accountability. Frequent human inspection of the material could be used to ensure these standards. However, it may be more effective and less expensive to replace these manual inspections with virtual inspections via remote monitoring technologies. To prepare for this future, Sandia National Laboratories has developed several monitoring systems, including the Modular Integrated Monitoring System (MIMS) and Project Straight-Line. The purpose of this paper is to describe a Sandia effort that merges remote monitoring technologies into a comprehensive storage monitoring system that will meet the near-term as well as the long-term requirements for these types of systems. Topics discussed include: motivations for storage monitoring systems to include remote monitoring; an overview of the needs and challenges of providing a storage monitoring system for the year 2000; an overview of how the MIMS and Straight-Line can be enhanced so that together they create an integrated and synergistic information system by the end of 1997; and suggested milestones for 1998 and 1999 to assure steady progress in preparing for the needs of 2000

  2. 2000 FIRST Robotics Competition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purman, Richard

    2000-01-01

    The New Horizons Regional Education Center (NHREC) in Hampton, VA sought and received NASA funding to support its participation in the 2000 FIRST Robotics competition. FIRST, Inc. (For Inspiration and Recognition of Science and Technology) is an organization which encourages the application of creative science, math, and computer science principles to solve real-world engineering problems. The FIRST competition is an international engineering contest featuring high school, government, and business partnerships.

  3. Paleoclimate Records from New Zealand Maar Lakes, Insights into ENSO Teleconnections and Climatic Events in the South (West) Pacific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shulmeister, J.; Nobes, D. C.; Striewski, B.

    2008-05-01

    The maar craters of the New Zealand Auckland Volcanic Field (36.5°S, 174.5°E) contain some of the highest resolution late-Quaternary paleoclimate records in the Southern Hemisphere. Here we integrate laminae count results from recent drilling in the Hopua Crater with existing records from the nearby Onepoto Crater (Pepper et al., 2004). In total these records cover many thousands of years between the onset of the last glaciation maximum and the early mid-Holocene. The cores are strongly laminated. Individual laminae in both craters are very fine (sub-mm to mm scale) and form couplets which comprise a darker mineralogenic rich layer and a lighter diatomaceous layer. In places these couplets are annual, and may reflect seasonal algal blooms, but in other sections of the record, notably through the late-Glacial and Holocene, the couplets are deposited at inter-annual time scales. Spectral analyses of couplet thickness counts using a fast Fourier transform (FFT) with 64 to 256-year running windows, and a 50 per cent overlap indicate strong spectral power during the LGM and markedly weaker power during both the deglaciation and early Holocene. In fact there is no spectral strength for most of these periods. Three brief (centennial duration) events punctuate this extended period of low spectral power. These occur at c. 16 ka, c. 14.8 ka and during the early Holocene. They display spectral power in the 5-7yr ENSO window and also at longer time intervals that may be consistent with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. We infer the local switching on (or up) of ENSO and PDO teleconnections and suspect these are embedded in circum-polar circulation changes. In addition to these spectral power episodes, there is a general increase in the number of couplet cycles per century between the deglaciation and the early mid-Holocene. This matches observations from Equador and Peru and suggests that trans-Pacific ENSO responses are in phase between western tropical South America and New

  4. An improved ENSO simulation by representing chlorophyll-induced climate feedback in the NCAR Community Earth System Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Xianbiao; Zhang, Rong-Hua; Gao, Chuan; Zhu, Jieshun

    2017-12-07

    The El Niño-Southern oscillation (ENSO) simulated in the Community Earth System Model of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR CESM) is much stronger than in reality. Here, satellite data are used to derive a statistical relationship between interannual variations in oceanic chlorophyll (CHL) and sea surface temperature (SST), which is then incorporated into the CESM to represent oceanic chlorophyll -induced climate feedback in the tropical Pacific. Numerical runs with and without the feedback (referred to as feedback and non-feedback runs) are performed and compared with each other. The ENSO amplitude simulated in the feedback run is more accurate than that in the non-feedback run; quantitatively, the Niño3 SST index is reduced by 35% when the feedback is included. The underlying processes are analyzed and the results show that interannual CHL anomalies exert a systematic modulating effect on the solar radiation penetrating into the subsurface layers, which induces differential heating in the upper ocean that affects vertical mixing and thus SST. The statistical modeling approach proposed in this work offers an effective and economical way for improving climate simulations.

  5. Impacts of the ENSO Modoki and other Tropical Indo-Pacific Climate-Drivers on African Rainfall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preethi, B; Sabin, T P; Adedoyin, J A; Ashok, K

    2015-11-16

    The study diagnoses the relative impacts of the four known tropical Indo-Pacific drivers, namely, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), ENSO Modoki, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and Indian Ocean Basin-wide mode (IOBM) on African seasonal rainfall variability. The canonical El Niño and El Niño Modoki are in general associated with anomalous reduction (enhancement) of rainfall in southern (northern) hemispheric regions during March-May season. However, both the El Niño flavours anomalously reduce the northern hemispheric rainfall during June-September. Interestingly, during boreal spring and summer, in many regions, the Indian Ocean drivers have influences opposite to those from tropical Pacific drivers. On the other hand, during the October-December season, the canonical El Niño and/or positive IOD are associated with an anomalous enhancement of rainfall in the Eastern Africa, while the El Niño Modoki events are associated with an opposite impact. In addition to the Walker circulation changes, the Indo-Pacific drivers influence the African rainfall through modulating jet streams. During boreal summer, the El Niño Modoki and canonical El Niño (positive IOD) tend to weaken (strengthen) the tropical easterly jet, and result in strengthening (weakening) and southward shift of African easterly jet. This anomalously reduces (enhances) rainfall in the tropical north, including Sahelian Africa.

  6. Civil plutonium held in France in December 31, 2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-02-01

    Spent fuels comprise about 1% of plutonium which is separated during the reprocessing and recycled to prepare the mixed uranium-plutonium fuel (MOX), which in turn is burnt in PWRs. Plutonium can be in a non-irradiated or separated form, or in an irradiated form when contained in the spent fuel. Each year, in accordance with the 1997 directives relative to the management of plutonium, France has to make a status of its civil plutonium stock and communicate it to the IAEA using a standard model form. This short document summarizes the French plutonium stocks at the end of 1999 and 2000. (J.S.)

  7. 14CO2 measurements in maritime air over the Northern Indian Ocean

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dutta, K.; Bhushan, R.; Somayajulu, B.L.K.

    2002-01-01

    14 C in the carbon dioxide of air overlying the Northern Indian Ocean was measured during the spring of 1993 to 1995 and 1997 to 1999. Considerable variations of 14 C over this region have been observed during this period, which reflect both regional and interannual variations. The interannual variations of 14 C of the tropospheric CO 2 over this region is found to correlate with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, with positive excursions of 14 C before the onset of warm phase of ENSO. (author)

  8. Influences of the ENSO, oscillation Madden-Julian, waves of the east, hurricanes and moon phases on the diurnal cycle of precipitation at the tropical Andes of Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poveda, German; Mesa, Oscar; Agudelo, Paula; Alvarez, Juan; Arias, Paola; Moreno, Hernan; Salazar, Luis; Toro, Vladimir; Vieira, Sara

    2002-01-01

    We study the effects of large-scale ocean-atmospheric, astronomic phenomena on the diurnal cycle of precipitation at the tropical Andes of Colombia. Such phenomena include both phases of El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely El Nino and La Nina, the intra seasonal Madden-Julian oscillation, tropical easterly waves (4-8 days), moon phases and hurricanes over the Atlantic and eastern pacific oceans. We found a clear-cut effect of both ENSO phases: El Nino is associated with a diminished rainfall diurnal cycle, and La Nina intensifies it. Thus, ENSO modulates precipitation in Colombia at timescales ranging from hours to decades. We identified a close association with different phases of the Madden-Julian oscillation, as the diurnal cycle is intensified (larger amplitude) during its westerly phase, but it gets decreased during its easterly phase. For both ENSO and the Madden-Julian oscillation we identified a clear-cut influence on the amplitude of the diurnal cycle, yet the phase is conserved for the most part. Tropical easterly waves appear to affect the diurnal cycle, but no clear overall signal is pervasive throughout the region. We al so found a significant statistical association with hurricanes occurring over the northeastern pacific ocean with the diurnal cycle of precipitation at rain gages located over the eastern slope of the eastern range of the Colombian Andes. Rainfall at all the remaining slopes of the Andes is statistically associated with hurricanes occurring at the tropical north Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea. Moon phases are not statistically associated with the diurnal cycle and daily total rainfall

  9. Revisiting Cholera-Climate Teleconnections in the Native Homeland: ENSO and other Extremes through the Regional Hydroclimatic Drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akanda, A. S.; Jutla, A.; Huq, A.; Colwell, R. R.

    2014-12-01

    Cholera is a global disease, with significantly large outbreaks occurring since the 1990s, notably in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia and recently in Haiti, in the Caribbean. Critical knowledge gaps remain in the understanding of the annual recurrence in endemic areas and the nature of epidemic outbreaks, especially those that follow extreme hydroclimatic events. Teleconnections with large-scale climate phenomena affecting regional scale hydroclimatic drivers of cholera dynamics remain largely unexplained. For centuries, the Bengal delta region has been strongly influenced by the asymmetric availability of water in the rivers Ganges and the Brahmaputra. As these two major rivers are known to have strong contrasting affects on local cholera dynamics in the region, we argue that the role of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), or other phenomena needs to be interpreted in the context of the seasonal role of individual rivers and subsequent impact on local environmental processes, not as a teleconnection having a remote and unified effect. We present a modified hypothesis that the influences of large-scale climate phenomena such as ENSO and IOD on Bengal cholera can be explicitly identified and incorporated through regional scale hydroclimatic drivers. Here, we provide an analytical review of the literature addressing cholera and climate linkages and present hypotheses, based on recent evidence, and quantification on the role of regional scale hydroclimatic drivers of cholera. We argue that the seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature, and resulting river discharge in the GBM basin region during ENSO and IOD events have a dominant combined effect on the endemic persistence and the epidemic vulnerability to cholera outbreaks in spring and fall seasons, respectively, that is stronger than the effect of localized hydrological and socio-economic sensitivities in Bangladesh. In addition, systematic identification of underlying seasonal

  10. Trends in viral meningitis hospitalisations and notifications in the North Eastern Health Board (1997 - 2001): a cause for concern?

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Brabazon, E D

    2004-01-01

    This study aimed to compare trends in both hospital admissions and notifications of viral meningitis in the North Eastern Health Board (NEHB). Hospital admissions from 1997 to 2001, involving NEHB residents with an infectious disease diagnosis, were examined and viral meningitis cases were analyzed. During this period 265 NEHB residents were admitted to hospital with viral meningitis--an increase of 429% between 1997 and 2001 with the bulk of this increase during 2000 and 2001. A total of 1,234 bed days were taken up by this cohort and the mean length of stay was 4.5 days (95% CI 4.2 - 4.9). The number of viral meningitis notifications in the NEHB was 38 (ranging from 4 in 1997 to 11 in 2001). This number is much lower than expected given the corresponding number of hospital admissions for the same period. Thus, most cases were not notified which means that current surveillance systems under-estimate the disease burden of viral meningitis. Such under-reporting has implications for infectious disease policy in Ireland.

  11. Factors that Influence the Use of Climate Forecasts: Evidence from the 1997/98 El Niño Event in Peru.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orlove, Benjamin S.; Broad, Kenneth; Petty, Aaron M.

    2004-11-01

    This article analyzes the use of climate forecasts among members of the Peruvian fishing sector during the 1997/98 El Niño event. It focuses on the effect of the time of hearing a forecast on the socioeconomic responses to the forecast. Findings are based on data collected from a survey of 596 persons in five ports spanning the length of the Peruvian coast. Respondents include commercial and artisanal fishers, plant workers, managers, and firm owners.These data fill an important gap in the literature on the use of forecasts. Though modelers have discussed the effects of the timing of the dissemination and reception of forecasts, along with other factors, on acting on a forecast once it has been heard, few researchers have gathered empirical evidence on these topics.The 1997/98 El Niño event was covered extensively by the media throughout Peru, affording the opportunity to study the effect of hearing forecasts on actions taken by members of a population directly impacted by ENSO events. Findings of this study examine the relationships among 1) socioeconomic variables, including geographic factors, age, education, income level, organizational ties, and media access; 2) time of hearing the forecast; and 3) actions taken in response to the forecast. Socioeconomic variables have a strong effect on the time of hearing the forecast and the actions taken in response to the forecast; however, time of hearing does not have an independent effect on taking action. The article discusses the implications of these findings for the application of forecasts.A supplement to this article is available online (dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-85-11-Orlove)

  12. Fluctuations in the spawning stock biomass and recruitment of the brazilian sardine (Sardinella brasiliensis 1977-1997

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Cristina Cergole

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available In the southeastern coast of Brazil, catches of the Brazilian sardine (Sardinella brasiliensis have been decreasing from more than 200 thousand tons/year in the early '70s to about 32 thousand tons in 1990. From 1994 to 1997, catches recovered slightly (118 thousand tons, dropping then to about 20 thousand tons in 1999-2000. Extensive investigations on biology and stock assessment of Brazilian sardine have been developed in the '80s, providing stock biomass and recruitment estimates based on commercial fishing data obtained from 1977-1992. The present paper aims to update biological and stock assessment parameters from sardine data obtained during two acoustic surveys carried out in 1995 and commercial catches from the 1993-1997 period. Results from both cruises showed the weight-length relationship Wt=0.0000019. Lt3,26 (90-240 mm total length and four age classes (mostly class II+. In the commercial catches, sardines belonged to ages 0+ and 3+ years old (mostly older than 1-year old with 90-250 mm total length. Annual growth parameters were: Li=275 mm, K= 0.55 (1996, and Li=273 mm, K=0.50 (1997. Total mortality (Z and natural mortality (M coefficients were: Z= 3.8; M= 0.7 -1.2 (1996, and Z= 3.6; M= 0.6 - 1.1 (1997. The variation amplitude of M is due to the application of several different methods. Considering the historical series of 21 years of data (1977-1997, results showed that the stock went through two favorable periods (1980-84, 1989-94 and one unfavorable period (1985-89. 1997 seems to have been the beginning of a new unfavorable period, revealing recruitment cycles likewise other stocks from California and Japan.Na costa sudeste do Brasil, as capturas da sardinha-verdadeira {Sardinella brasliensis decresceram de mais de 200 mil t/ano no início dos anos 70 para cerca de 32 mil t em 1990. De 1994 a 1997, as capturas se recuperaram alcançando 118 mil t, caindo então para cerca de 20 mil t em 1999-2000. Estudos abrangentes sobre a

  13. Changes in Andes snow cover from MODIS data, 2000–2016

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. A. Saavedra

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The Andes span a length of 7000 km and are important for sustaining regional water supplies. Snow variability across this region has not been studied in detail due to sparse and unevenly distributed instrumental climate data. We calculated snow persistence (SP as the fraction of time with snow cover for each year between 2000 and 2016 from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS satellite sensors (500 m, 8-day maximum snow cover extent. This analysis is conducted between 8 and 36° S due to high frequency of cloud (>  30 % of the time south and north of this range. We ran Mann–Kendall and Theil–Sens analyses to identify areas with significant changes in SP and snowline (the line at lower elevation where SP  =  20 %. We evaluated how these trends relate to temperature and precipitation from Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications-2 (MERRA2 and University of Delaware datasets and climate indices as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO, Southern Annular Mode (SAM, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO. Areas north of 29° S have limited snow cover, and few trends in snow persistence were detected. A large area (34 370 km2 with persistent snow cover between 29 and 36° S experienced a significant loss of snow cover (2–5 fewer days of snow year−1. Snow loss was more pronounced (62 % of the area with significant trends on the east side of the Andes. We also found a significant increase in the elevation of the snowline at 10–30 m year−1 south of 29–30° S. Decreasing SP correlates with decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature, and the magnitudes of these correlations vary with latitude and elevation. ENSO climate indices better predicted SP conditions north of 31° S, whereas the SAM better predicted SP south of 31° S.

  14. Assessment of impact on seafloor features in INDEX area

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sharma, R.

    Marine Georesources and Geotechnology,18:237–250,2000Copyright ©2000 Taylor & Francis1064-119X / 00 $12.00 1 .00 Assessment of Impact on Seafloor Features in INDEX Area RAHUL SHARMANational Institute of Oceanography,Dona Paula,Goa 403004,India...Benthic disturbance,environmental impact,photographic and subbottomdata,seafloor features. Imaging and sounding techniques are effective tools for obtaining first-hand information forassessing the baseline (undisturbed) conditions as well as the impact (disturbed...

  15. Improvements and new features in the IRI-2000 model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bilitza, D.

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes the changes that were implemented in the new version of the COSPAR/URSI International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-2000). These changes are: (1) two new options for the electron density in the D-region, (2) a better functional description of the electron density in the E-F merging region, (3) inclusion of the F1 layer occurrence probability as a new parameter, (4) a new model for the bottomside parameters B 0 and B 1 that greatly improves the representation at low and equatorial latitudes during high solar activities, (5) inclusion of a model for foF2 storm-time updating, (6) a new option for the electron temperature in the topside ionosphere, and (7) inclusion of a model for the equatorial F region ion drift. The main purpose of this paper is to provide the IRI users with examples of the effects of these changes. (author)

  16. Advanced Light Source Activity Report 1997/1998

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greiner, Annette

    1999-01-01

    This Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Advanced Light Source (ALS) activity report for 1997/98 discusses the following topics: Introduction and Overview; Science Highlights; Facility Report; Special Events; ALS Advisory Panels 1997/98; ALS Staff 1997/98 and Facts and Figures for the year

  17. Advanced Light Source Activity Report 1997/1998

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greiner, Annette (ed.)

    1999-03-01

    This Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Advanced Light Source (ALS) activity report for 1997/98 discusses the following topics: Introduction and Overview; Science Highlights; Facility Report; Special Events; ALS Advisory Panels 1997/98; ALS Staff 1997/98 and Facts and Figures for the year.

  18. Multi-year assimilation of IASI and MLS ozone retrievals: variability of tropospheric ozone over the tropics in response to ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peiro, Hélène; Emili, Emanuele; Cariolle, Daniel; Barret, Brice; Le Flochmoën, Eric

    2018-05-01

    The Infrared Atmospheric Sounder Instrument (IASI) allows global coverage with very high spatial resolution and its measurements are promising for long-term ozone monitoring. In this study, Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) O3 profiles and IASI O3 partial columns (1013.25-345 hPa) are assimilated in a chemistry transport model to produce 6-hourly analyses of tropospheric ozone for 6 years (2008-2013). We have compared and evaluated the IASI-MLS analysis and the MLS analysis to assess the added value of IASI measurements. The global chemical transport model MOCAGE (MOdèle de Chimie Atmosphérique à Grande Echelle) has been used with a linear ozone chemistry scheme and meteorological forcing fields from ERA-Interim (ECMWF global reanalysis) with a horizontal resolution of 2° × 2° and 60 vertical levels. The MLS and IASI O3 retrievals have been assimilated with a 4-D variational algorithm to constrain stratospheric and tropospheric ozone respectively. The ozone analyses are validated against ozone soundings and tropospheric column ozone (TCO) from the OMI-MLS residual method. In addition, an Ozone ENSO Index (OEI) is computed from the analysis to validate the TCO variability during the ENSO events. We show that the assimilation of IASI reproduces the variability of tropospheric ozone well during the period under study. The variability deduced from the IASI-MLS analysis and the OMI-MLS measurements are similar for the period of study. The IASI-MLS analysis can reproduce the extreme oscillation of tropospheric ozone caused by ENSO events over the tropical Pacific Ocean, although a correction is required to reduce a constant bias present in the IASI-MLS analysis.

  19. Aeroelastic Research Programme EFP-2000; Forskning i Aeroelasticitet - EFP-2000

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aagaard Madsen, H. (ed.)

    2001-07-01

    The report presents the main results achieved within (Program for forskning i aeroelasticitet EFP-2000), which is a project carried out in collaboration between Risoe, DTU and the wind turbine industry. The project period has been 2000-2001 and it is the fourth period of a five years research program on aeroelasticity initiated in 1997. Within the present period the project has comprised the following six milestones: a.) status on 2D and 3D CFD computations b.) implementation of improved aerodynamic and structural sub models in the aeroelastic codes FLEX4 and HAWC c.) design of an airfoil family with high maximum lift d.) determination of the potential in prediction of dynamic stability e.) analysis of the uncertainty in computation of design loads f.) guidelines for optimised blade dynamics Within the project important results have been obtained and in particular within the following three main ares: 1) verification, development and application of 2D and 3D CFD computation on airfoils an rotors; 2) dynamic stability of a complete wind turbine structure; 3) importance of non-linearity's related to big blade deflections. The development of rotor computations with the 3D CFD code EllipSys3D has been an important research area since the start of the aeroelastic research programme in 1997, where initial results of 3D computations on a rotor were presented. However, first within the present project a verification of these 3D rotor computations has been possible. A blind test of rotor codes was carried out by NREL in USA using experimental data from a comprehensive wind tunnel experiment on a 10 m rotor. Out of about 20 different codes EllipSys3D gave results with the best correlation with the experimental data and in particular the 3D effect on the airfoil characteristics was well predicted. Within the research area on dynamic stability a simple, linear structural model has been developed enabling the computation of a Cambell diagram within a few seconds. Such a

  20. Verification of an ENSO-Based Long-Range Prediction of Anomalous Weather Conditions During the Vancouver 2010 Olympics and Paralympics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mo, Ruping; Joe, Paul I.; Doyle, Chris; Whitfield, Paul H.

    2014-01-01

    A brief review of the anomalous weather conditions during the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games and the efforts to predict these anomalies based on some preceding El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signals are presented. It is shown that the Olympic Games were held under extraordinarily warm conditions in February 2010, with monthly mean temperature anomalies of +2.2 °C in Vancouver and +2.8 °C in Whistler, ranking respectively as the highest and the second highest in the past 30 years (1981-2010). The warm conditions continued, but became less anomalous, in March 2010 for the Paralympic Games. While the precipitation amounts in the area remained near normal through this winter, the lack of snow due to warm conditions created numerous media headlines and practical problems for the alpine competitions. A statistical model was developed on the premise that February and March temperatures in the Vancouver area could be predicted using an ENSO signal with considerable lead time. This model successfully predicted the warmer-than-normal, lower-snowfall conditions for the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics and Paralympics.

  1. International kernekraftstatus 1997

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Højerup, C.F.; Majborn, Benny; Ølgaard, Povl Lebeck

    1998-01-01

    This report is the fourth in a series of annual reports on the international development of nuclear power with special emphasis on reactor safety. For 1997, the report contains: -General trends in the development of nuclear power -A review of what can bedone with the plutonium stocks of the world...... -Statistical information on nuclear power production -An overview of safety-relevant incidents in 1997 -The development in Sweden -The development in Eastern Europe -The development in the rest of the world -Thetrends in the development of reactor types -The trends in the development of the nuclear fuel cycle...

  2. 1997 statistical yearbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-01-01

    The international office of energy information and studies (Enerdata), has published the second edition of its 1997 statistical yearbook which includes consolidated 1996 data with respect to the previous version from June 1997. The CD-Rom comprises the annual worldwide petroleum, natural gas, coal and electricity statistics from 1991 to 1996 with information about production, external trade, consumption, market shares, sectoral distribution of consumption and energy balance sheets. The world is divided into 12 zones (52 countries available). It contains also energy indicators: production and consumption tendencies, supply and production structures, safety of supplies, energy efficiency, and CO 2 emissions. (J.S.)

  3. Towards an annually-resolved reconstruction of Indo-Pacific hydrology over the past 2,000 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, M. L.; Kimbrough, A. K.; Gagan, M. K.; Drysdale, R.; Cole, J. E.; Johnson, K. R.; Zhao, J.; Hellstrom, J.; Ayliffe, L.; Hantoro, W.

    2011-12-01

    A suite of climate proxy records (e.g. speleothems, lake sediments, tree rings) have provided detailed information on the behaviour of the East Asian summer monsoon over the past 2,000 years. By contrast, little is known about how its Southern Hemisphere counterpart - the Australian-Indonesian summer monsoon (AISM) - has varied over this same interval. This is because, until now, the only high resolution and continuous records from the Indo-Pacific region come from a sparse network of marine records. Here, we aim to fill this void by building a two-thousand-year 'stacked composite' δ18O record (a proxy for AISM intensity) from two precisely-dated stalagmites from Flores, south-central Indonesia. Our stacked δ18O record, which is anchored by twenty U/Th dates, shows that over the past two millennia δ18O values were highest during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; between 950 and 1250 A.D.) and were outside the range of variability for the twentieth century. This suggests that this interval was characterized by the highest and most prolonged period of drought of the past 2,000 years. Following this, δ18O values were lower during the Little Ice Age (LIA) between 1400 and 1750 A.D., reflecting a prolonged intensification of the AISM that culminated with a rapid decrease that persisted until the beginning of the Current Warm Period (CWP) at ~1850 A.D. During the CWP δ18O values displayed an abrupt increase indicating a return to reduced AISM conditions; this is in-line with climate model projections for a diminished AISM under enhanced greenhouse warming. A weaker (stronger) AISM during the MCA (LIA), regionally synchronous across the central Indo-Pacific, suggests that the AISM is strongly coupled to Northern Hemisphere air temperatures. This pattern, which is in-phase with palaeomonsoon records from South America but anti-phased with those from East Asia, adds to growing evidence that warmer (cooler) high northern latitude air temperatures induced a northward

  4. Comportamiento de la participación electoral y su relación con las dinámicas de violencia política en Norte de Santander (1997-2011)

    OpenAIRE

    Edgard Sneider, Díaz Torrado

    2016-01-01

    La investigación analiza el comportamiento de la participación electoral (PE) y su relación con las dinámicas de violencia política en Norte de Santander durante 1997-2011, con el fin de demostrar que la región del Catatumbo ha tenido un comportamiento electoral diferente al resto del departamento dado que tiene una tendencia en porcentajes de participación bajos durante las elecciones locales que se dieron en 1997, 2000 y 2003, lo cual se debe a la presencia y disputa por...

  5. Geography of blizzards in the conterminous United States, 1959--2000

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Robert Michael

    2001-07-01

    Many individuals think of tornadoes and hurricanes when considering weather-related storms. However, winter storms and blizzards have potential impacts on millions of people and effects on the social landscape such as fatalities, injuries, and economic consequences. Additionally, these storms can last from a few hours to over a week. This study established a climatology of blizzards in the conterminous United States from 1959-2000 utilizing data from Storm Data to identify the spatial and temporal patterns of blizzards. The annual probability of a blizzard on a county level was calculated to give the empirical probability of having a blizzard in any given winter season. Additionally, the number of blizzards were compared to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection by running a linear regression to check for correlation. Finally, the social impacts of blizzards studied included the population affected, fatalities, injuries, property damage, crop damage, and federal disaster declarations. Maps were produced utilizing MapInfo and ArcView Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to summarize regional differences and temporal trends. There were 438 blizzards analyzed in the study with an annual mean of 10.7 blizzards per winter season with the majority of storms occurring in the northern Plains states of North Dakota, South Dakota, and western Minnesota. Time series analysis indicated an increase in the number of blizzards over the 41-year period while there was no linear trend of the area affected by blizzards. Annual probabilities of a blizzard were as high as 76% for Cavalier, Rolette, Steele, Towner, and Traill Counties in North Dakota. The ENSO teleconnection and the number of blizzards on the national scale suggested a negative correlation with fewer blizzards during El Nino episodes. Social impacts indicated blizzards affected 26.3 million per season with 16 fatalities and 49 injuries per season reported to Storm Data . The total population affected

  6. Framatome announces its 1997 results; Framatome annonce ses resultats 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-05-18

    This press dossier presents the 1997 financial year of Framatome group: turnover and key-numbers, results, sectoral analysis (nuclear engineering (nuclear realizations, fuels, services and equipments); connectors engineering (automotive, electrical, electronic, interconnection and microelectronic industries), industrial equipments). Then, the 1998 objectives are presented with the strategy of the group (Chinese, central and eastern Europe nuclear programs, French-German joint EPR project, services and nuclear fuels, connectors engineering, industrial equipments, manpower, research and development programs). This part is followed by a presentation of some 1997 events and by the text of the press conference from May 18, 1998 which presented the activities of the group, its competences and know-how in the nuclear domain. (J.S.)

  7. Variations and Trends in Global and Regional Precipitation Based on the 22-year GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project) and Three-year TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) Data Sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adler, R.; Curtis, S.; Huffman, G.; Bolvin, D.; Nelkin, E.

    2001-05-01

    This paper gives an overview of the analysis of global precipitation over the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to study global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM(Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant trend in global precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. The global trend analysis must be interpreted carefully, however, because the inhomogeneity of the data set makes detecting a small signal very difficult, especially over this relatively short period. The relation of global (and tropical) total precipitation and ENSO events is quantified with no significant signal when land and ocean are combined. Identifying regional trends in precipitation may be more practical. From 1979 to 2000 the tropics have pattern of regional rainfall trends that has an ENSO-like pattern with features of both the El Nino and La Nina. This feature is related to a possible trend in the frequency of ENSO events (either El Nino or La Nina) over the past 20 years. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENSO variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The El Nino and La Nina mean anomalies are near mirror images of each other and when combined produce an ENSO signal with significant spatial continuity over large distances. A number of the features are shown to extend into high latitudes. Positive anomalies extend in the Southern Hemisphere (S.H.) from the Pacific southeastward across Chile and Argentina into the south Atlantic Ocean. In the Northern Hemisphere (N.H.) the counterpart feature extends across the southern U.S. and Atlantic Ocean into Europe

  8. Examining Depictions of Bullying in Children's Picturebooks: A Content Analysis from 1997 to 2017

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiseman, Angela M.; Jones, Jill S.

    2018-01-01

    This article examines how bullying is portrayed within children's picturebooks published in the last 20 years. Two overarching questions guide this research: (a) How is bullying defined and portrayed in children's picturebooks published from 1997-2017? (b) What are specific features/qualities in picturebooks about bullying published from…

  9. TMAP2000 Use

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Longhurst, G.R.; Merrill, B.J.; Jones, J.L.

    2000-01-01

    The TMAP Code was written in the late 1980s as a tool for safety analysis of systems involving tritium. Since then it was upgraded to TMAP4 and used in numerous applications including experiments supporting fusion safety predictions for advanced systems such as the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER), and estimates involving tritium production technologies. Its further upgrade to TMAP2000 was accomplished in response to several needs. TMAP and TMAP4 had the capacity to deal with only a single trap for diffusing gaseous species in solid structures. TMAP2000 has been revised to include up to three separate traps and to keep track separately of each of up to 10 diffusing species in each of the traps. A difficulty in the original code dealing with heteronuclear molecule formation such as HD and DT has been removed. Under equilibrium boundary conditions such as Sieverts' law, TMAP2000 generates heteronuclear molecular partial pressures when solubilities and partial pressures of the homonuclear molecular species and the equilibrium stoichiometry are provided. A further sophistication is the addition of non-diffusing surface species and surface binding energy dynamics options. Atoms such as oxygen or nitrogen on metal surfaces are sometimes important in molecule formation with diffusing hydrogen isotopes but do not themselves diffuse appreciably in the material. TMAP2000 will accommodate up to 30 such surface species, allowing the user to specify relationships between those surface concentrations and populations of gaseous species above the surfaces. Additionally, TMAP2000 allows the user to include a surface binding energy and an adsorption barrier energy and includes asymmetrical diffusion between the surface sites and regular diffusion sites in the bulk. All of the previously existing features for heat transfer, flows between enclosures, and chemical reactions within the enclosures have been retained, but the allowed problem size and complexity have

  10. Simulations for Making On-farm Decisions in Relation to ENSO in Semi-arid Areas, South Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tesfuhuney, W. A.; Crespo, O. O.; Walker, S. S.; Steyn, S. A.

    2017-12-01

    The study was employed to investigate and improve on-farm decision making on planting dates and fertilization by relating simulated yield and seasonal outlook information. The Agricultural Production Systems SIMulator model (APSIM) was used to explore ENSO/SOI effects for small-scale farmers to represent weather conditions and soil forms of semi-arid areas of Bothaville, Bethlehem and Bloemfontein regions in South Africa. The relationships of rainfall and SOI anomalies indicate a positive correlation, signifies ENSO/SOI as seasonal outlooks for study areas. Model evaluation results showed higher degree of bias (RMSEs/RMSE value of 0.88-0.98). The D-index of agreement in the range 0.61-0.71 indicate the ability of the APSIM-Maize model is an adequate tool in evaluating relative changes in maize yield in relation to various management practices and seasonal variations. During rainy, La Niño years (SOI > +5), highest simulated yields were found for Bethlehem in November with addition of 100 - 150 kg ha-1 N fertilization and up to 50 kg ha-1 for both Bothaville and Bloemfontein. With respect to various levels of fertilization, the dry El Niño years (SOI risk for dryland farming in semi-arid regions. Key word: Semi-arid; APSIM; SOI; El Niño / La Niña; On-farm Decisions

  11. High Energy Physics Division semiannual report of research activities July 1, 1997 - December 31, 1997

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Norem, J.; Rezmer, R.; Schuur, C.; Wagner, R.

    1998-01-01

    This report describes the research conducted in the High Energy Physics Division of Argonne National Laboratory during the period July 1, 1997--December 31, 1997. Topics covered here include experimental and theoretical particle physics, advanced accelerator physics, detector development, and experimental facilities research. Lists of Division publications and colloquia are included

  12. ELETRONUCLEAR - Annual report - 1997; ELETRONUCLEAR - Relatorio anual - 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-07-01

    The annual activities report of 1997 of ELETRONUCLEAR - Brazilian company responsible by the electric power generation from the nuclear technology - introduces the next main topics: company vision and mission; energy production and commercialization; investments in the electric power generation; economic and financial situation; social balancing; and patrimonial balancing.

  13. Potential role of resurfacing Subtropical Underwater in ENSO evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qu, T.; Chi, J.

    2017-12-01

    Results from a model of the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) have shown that the resurfacing of high salinity Subtropical Underwater contributes to the sea surface salinity variability in the equatorial Pacific. On interannual time scale, this contribution can account for as much as 25% of the surface freshwater flux anomalies and is believed to play a role in ENSO evolution. Having these results in mind, this study investigates the surface salinity budget and its primary controls in the equatorial Pacific using ECCO output for the period 1993-2016. Particular attention is paid to 2014/2015 and 2015/2016. Preliminary analyses of the model results suggest that enhanced subsurface processes and in particular enhanced entrainment of Subtropical Underwater are primarily responsible for the positive sea surface salinity anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific during 2014/2015, which represents an opposite phase of El Niño. These subsurface processes weakened during 2015/2016, diretly contributing to the development of the 2015/2016 El Niño. The mechanisms controlling these subsurface processes are discussed.

  14. Isotopic changes due to convective moistening of the lower troposphere associated with variations in the ENSO and IOD from 2005 to 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeonghoon Lee

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available We use the tropospheric emission spectrometer measurements of the isotopic composition of water vapour (δD in the lower troposphere to examine how changes in the distribution of convection and precipitation control water vapour amount and its isotope over the Indian Ocean. Measurements of the outgoing longwave radiation and vertical velocity from NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis and cloud ice water content from the Microwave Limb Sounder show distinct variations in convection due to a phase shift of both El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD. These variations in convection are associated with changes in precipitation and water amount over the Western Indian Ocean (WIO and Eastern Indian Ocean (EIO, depending on the phases of ENSO and/or the IOD. Over the EIO in 2006, induced by the interplay of both positive ENSO and IOD, it is drier and less isotopically depleted due to less frequent and/or weaker deep convective activity and subsequent precipitation compared to 2005. By contrast, over the WIO in 2006, an increase in water vapour and precipitation but little isotopic fractionation in water vapour of clear sky compared to 2005 is likely associated with an increase in both enhanced deep and shallow convection, caused by the positive IOD. Therefore, paleoarchives of water isotopes near Africa will be more difficult to relate to a single process because changes in convective activity result in changes in precipitation but do not have a significant impact on the isotopic composition of the source vapour based on this case analysis.

  15. OIT Times Newsletter: Volume 3, Number 1, Winter 2000

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sousa, L.

    1999-12-16

    The Winter 2000 edition of the OIT Times newsletter, a quarterly publication produced by the Office of Industrial Technologies, highlights the 1999 start-up projects, announces the OIT solicitation schedule for FY2000, and features the success of the Ohio diecasting showcase. One of the quarterly highlights was Secretary Richardson's presentation of a Certificate of Partnership to Malden Mills CEO Aaron Feuerstein at the dedication of the plant's new, advanced cogeneration system.

  16. Bioenergy Research Programme. Yearbook 1997. Utilization of bioenergy and biomass conversion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nikku, P.

    1998-01-01

    The aim of the research programme is to increase the use of economically profitable and environmentally sound bioenergy, by improving the competitiveness of present peat and wood fuels. Research and development projects will also develop new economically competitive biofuels, new equipment and methods for production, handling and using of biofuels. The total funding for 1997 was 33.5 million FIM, and the number of projects 62. The number of projects concerning bioenergy use was 17 and biomass conversion 4. Results from the projects that were going on in 1997 are presented in this publication. The aim of the bioenergy use is to develop and demonstrate at least 3-4 new equipment or methods for handling and use of biofuels. The equipment and/or methods should provide economically competitive and environmentally sound energy production. The second aim is to demonstrate at least 2-3 large-scale biofuel end-use technologies. Each of these should have a potential of 0.2-0.3 million toe per year till the year 2000. The aims have been achieved in the field of fuel handling technologies and small scale combustion concepts, but the large scale demonstration projects before the year 2000 seem to be a very challenging goal. The aim of the biomass conversion is to produce basic information on biomass conversion, to evaluate the quality of products, their usability, environmental effects of the use as well as the total economy of the production. The objective of the biomass conversion is to develop 2-3 new methods, which could be demonstrated, for the production and utilization of liquefied, gasified and other converted biofuels. The production target is 0.2-0.3 million toe per year by 2005 at a competitive price level. The studies focused on the development of flash pyrolysis technology for biomass, and on the study of the storage stability of imported wood oils and their suitability for use in oil-fired boilers and diesel power plants

  17. Electricity statistics for Finland 1997; Saehkoetilasto 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kangas, H; Savolainen, T [Adato Energia Oy, Helsinki (Finland)

    1998-12-01

    Until 1995 the electrical statistics information has according to the law about electric utilities and facilities been collected and handled by the Electrical Inspectorate. In 1996 the work was done by the Finnish Electricity Association and it was commissioned by the Ministry of Trade and Industry. Since 1996 the collection and handling of the information is based on the Electricity Market Act. The information is mainly submitted by the producers and distributors of electricity and processed since 1997 in Adato Energia Oy owned jointly by Finnish Energy Industries Federation, Finnish District Heating Association and Finnish Electricity Association. This action is based on a mutual contract of the Statistics Finland, Adato Energia Oy, Finnish Energy Industries Federation and Finnish Electricity Association. The Electricity Statistics for Finland 1997 contains several summaries about the consumption and the production. There is also summaries about the networks, the effects of electricity, the capacities of electricity, the fuels used in production and the dwellings heated by electric power. Like before a list of names, addresses, persons and telephone numbers is available. Additionally a list comprising the power consumption in all Finnish communes and a glossary in three languages (Finnish, Swedish and English) are included

  18. 1997 annual report; Rapport annuel 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-12-31

    This 1997 issue of the `IFP` (French Petroleum Institute) gives a general overview of the IFP organization, activities, human resources, international relations with some budgetary information. The main activities described concern the exploration, drilling, production, refining of petroleum, the exploration, production, treatment, transportation, conversion, storage and uses of natural gas, the petrochemistry, the motors, the environmental activities, the protection and transfer of knowledge and technology, the industrialization of the processes, the teaching and training. (O.M.)

  19. AGS experiments -- 1995, 1996 and 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Depken, J.C.; Presti, P.L.

    1997-12-01

    This report contains (1) FY 1995 AGS schedule as run; (2) FY 1996 AGS schedule as run; (3) FY 1997 AGS schedule as run; (4) FY 1998--1999 AGS schedule (proposed); (5) AGS beams 1997; (6) AGS experimental area FY 1995 physics program; (7) AGS experimental area FY 1996 physics program; (8) AGS experimental area FY 1997 physics program; (9) AGS experimental area FY 1998--1999 physics program (proposed); (10) a listing of experiments by number; (11) two-page summaries of each experiment, in order by number; and (12) listing of publications of AGS experiments.

  20. AGS experiments - 1995, 1996 and 1997

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Depken, J.C.; Presti, P.L.

    1997-12-01

    This report contains (1) FY 1995 AGS schedule as run; (2) FY 1996 AGS schedule as run; (3) FY 1997 AGS schedule as run; (4) FY 1998--1999 AGS schedule (proposed); (5) AGS beams 1997; (6) AGS experimental area FY 1995 physics program; (7) AGS experimental area FY 1996 physics program; (8) AGS experimental area FY 1997 physics program; (9) AGS experimental area FY 1998--1999 physics program (proposed); (10) a listing of experiments by number; (11) two-page summaries of each experiment, in order by number; and (12) listing of publications of AGS experiments

  1. Natural gas annual 1997

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-10-01

    The Natural Gas Annual provides information on the supply and disposition of natural gas to a wide audience including industry, consumers, Federal and State agencies, and educational institutions. The 1997 data are presented in a sequence that follows natural gas (including supplemental supplies) from its production to its end use. This is followed by tables summarizing natural gas supply and disposition from 1993 to 1997 for each Census Division and each State. Annual historical data are shown at the national level. 27 figs., 109 tabs

  2. Natural gas annual 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-10-01

    The Natural Gas Annual provides information on the supply and disposition of natural gas to a wide audience including industry, consumers, Federal and State agencies, and educational institutions. The 1997 data are presented in a sequence that follows natural gas (including supplemental supplies) from its production to its end use. This is followed by tables summarizing natural gas supply and disposition from 1993 to 1997 for each Census Division and each State. Annual historical data are shown at the national level. 27 figs., 109 tabs.

  3. Drug company advertising in medical journals about the health-economic advantages of their products for 2000-2006 versus 1990-1999.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmer, Jennifer A; Timm, Alison R; Neumann, Peter J

    2008-10-01

    Section 114 of the 1997 Food and Drug Administration Modernization Act (FDAMA) effective February 19, 1998, permitted some additional flexibility for drug companies to provide "health care economic information" to "a formulary committee or other similar entity" and may have caused a decline in economic messages used in print advertisements in medical journals. We previously investigated the promotional claims made by pharmaceutical companies about the economic advantages of their prescription products in print advertisements in 6 leading medical journals from 1990-1999. To examine the hypotheses that (1) economic promotion in journals declined after the effective date of Section 114 of the FDAMA, and (2) increased calls for U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) scrutiny of health-economic information was associated with an increase in the reporting of supporting information for economic advertisements in 2000- 2006 compared with the 1990s. Two researchers independently reviewed all pharmaceutical print advertisements in 3 issues each year of 3 general medical and 3 specialty journals (totaling 18 issues each year) from 2000 through 2006. The type of economic claim (e.g., advertisements using the words "price," "costs less," "value") as well as the presence of supporting information for an advertisement's claims (e.g., published studies) were tabulated using a standardized data collection form. The research method was similar to that used in previous research of economic claims in advertisements in the same 6 medical journals from 1990-1999, and we compared the results from previous research for 1990-1999 with the new findings for 2000-2006. The list of health economic terms was expanded in the 2000-2006 research to include "less hospitalization"/"less treatment," "formulary"/"coverage," "co-pay"/"cost-sharing," and "in community longer." Our results are derived from 2,144 pharmaceutical advertisements from the 10-year period 1990-1999 and 1,372 from the 7-year

  4. Perfil epidemiológico do sarampo no Estado de Santa Catarina, Brasil, de 1996 a 2000 Measles epidemiology in the State of Santa Catarina, Brazil, 1996-2000

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Cristina de Sousa Santos Faversani

    2005-04-01

    Full Text Available Este estudo ecológico, baseado nos dados secundários da vigilância epidemiológica e usando município como unidade de análise, mostrou que as coberturas da vacina contra sarampo foram menores de níveis necessários para erradicação (95% e controle (90% em grande parte do Estado de Santa Catarina, Brasil, antes e durante a epidemia de 1997, principalmente da segunda dose da vacina, prevista para 15 meses de idade dentro da vacina triviral. Houve melhora nos anos seguintes, mas continuou faltando a homogeneidade da cobertura. Baixas coberturas vacinais foram associadas com maior incidência de sarampo, mas, no ano epidêmico de 1997, surtos menores de sarampo ocorreram até em alguns municípios com coberturas acima de 95% no primeiro ano de vida, com maior concentração naqueles com baixa cobertura da vacina triviral. Cerca de 80% dos casos de sarampo no período de 1996-2000 ocorreram entre escolares e jovens adultos. A circulação do vírus do sarampo no ano anterior e a densidade populacional aumentaram o risco de sarampo. Dois casos importados em 2004 ilustram bem porque ainda não podemos falar de erradicação e sim de eliminação do sarampo no Estado.This ecological study, based on an analysis of secondary data from epidemiological surveillance and using the municipality (county as the unit of analysis, showed that measles vaccine coverage was lower than necessary for eradication (95% and control (90% in many municipalities in the State of Santa Catarina, Brazil, both before and during the last epidemic in 1997, particularly regarding the second dose of the vaccine, applied as a component of the MMR vaccine, scheduled at 15 months of age. Low vaccine coverage was associated with higher measles incidence. However, during the 1997 epidemic small-scale measles outbreaks were recorded even in municipalities with first-dose coverage of 95% or higher, particularly among those which also had low second-dose coverage for MMR

  5. Proxy Records of the Indonesian Low and the El Ni{tilde n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from Stable Isotope Measurements of Indonesian Reef Corals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moore, M.D.

    1995-12-31

    The Earth`s largest atmospheric convective center is the Indonesian Low. It generates the Australasian monsoon, drives the zonal tropospheric Walker Circulation, and is implicated in the genesis of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The long-term variability of the Indonesian Low is poorly characterized, yet such information is crucial for evaluating whether changes in the strength and frequency of ENSO events are a possible manifestation of global warming. Stable oxygen isotope ratios ({delta}{sup 18}O) in shallow-water reef coral skeletons track topical convective activity over hundreds of years because the input of isotopically-depleted rainwater dilutes seawater {delta}{sup 18}O. Corals also impose a temperature-dependent fractionation on {delta}{sup 18}O, but where annual rainfall is high and sea surface temperature (SST) variability is low the freshwater flux effect dominates.

  6. Fire in the Vegetation and Peatlands of Borneo, 1997-2007: Patterns, Drivers and Emissions from Biomass Burning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spessa, Allan; Weber, Ulrich; Langner, Andreas; Siegert, Florian; Heil, Angelika

    2010-05-01

    The peatland forests of equatorial SE Asia cover over 20 Mha with most located in Indonesia. Indonesian peatlands are globally one of the largest near-surface reserves of terrestrial organic carbon, with peat deposits of up to 20m thick and an estimated carbon storage of 55-61 Gt. The destructive fires in Indonesia during the exceptionally strong drought of late 1997 and early 1998 mark some of the largest peak emissions events in recorded history of global fires. Past studies estimate that about 1Gt of carbon was released to the atmosphere from the Indonesian fires in 1997- equivalent to 14% of the average global annual fossil fuel emissions released during the 1990s. Previous studies have established a non-linear negative correlation between fires and antecedent rainfall in Borneo, with ENSO-driven droughts being identified as the main cause of below-average rainfall events over the past decade or so. However, while these studies suggest that this non-linear relationship is mediated by ignitions associated with land use and land cover change (LULCC), they have not demonstrated it. A clear link between fires and logging in Borneo has been reported, but this work was restricted to eastern Kalimantan and the period 1997-98. The relationship between fires, emissions, rainfall and LULCC across the island of Borneo therefore remains to be examined using available fine resolution data over a multi-year period. Using rainfall data, up-to-date peat maps and state-of-the art satellite sensor data to determine burnt area and deforestation patterns over the decade 1997-2007, we show at a pixel working resolution of 0.25 degrees the following: Burning across Borneo predominated in southern Kalimantan. Fire activity is negatively and non-linearly correlated to rainfall mainly in pixels that have undergone a significant reduction in forest cover, and that the bigger the reduction, the stronger the correlation. Such pixels occur overwhelmingly in southern Kalimantan. These

  7. 7 CFR 51.1997 - Similar type.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Similar type. 51.1997 Section 51.1997 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Standards, Inspections, Marketing Practices), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE REGULATIONS AND STANDARDS UNDER THE AGRICULTURAL MARKETING ACT OF 1946...

  8. Grass pollen (Poaceae in the air of Sosnowiec (Poland, 1997 - 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazimiera Chłopek

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the analysis results of the grass pollen seasons from 1997 to 2006 in Sosnowiec. The research was carried out by means of the volumetric method with the use of a Burkard device. The duration of the pollen seasons was determined by means of the 98% method. The influence of meteorological conditions on the starting date and duration of the grass pollen seasons has been estimated in the article. The beginning of the pollen seasons was recorded between 23 April and 23 May. It has been demonstrated that the average duration of the pollen season amounted to 138 days. The period of maximum concentrations was recorded in June and the first half of July. The highest daily concentration was found in 2000 (495 grains in m3 and the highest annual sums in 2002 and 2000. The daily concentration distribution curve has shown three peaks. The highest values were recorded from 7 am until 11 am, from 13 pm until 17 pm and from 19 pm until 21 pm. It has been found that there is a significant influence of weather conditions (temperature, precipitation and relative humidity on the beginning and duration of the pollen seasons and the period of maximum concentrations.

  9. 1997 hazardous to coastal health?

    Science.gov (United States)

    The atmosphere above North America and the Atlantic turned violent with increasing frequency in 1995 and 1996, and some researchers expect that trend to continue in 1997. According to an April 4 forecast by William Gray of Colorado State University, Christopher Landsea of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division, and colleagues, the hurricane season of 1997 is likely to be more active than the average year and significantly more active than those of the early 1990s. Gray and colleagues are forecasting 11 named storms during the 1997 season, which lasts from June to December, the historical average is 9.3 named storms per season. The researchers predict 7 hurricanes (average is 5.8), three of which will be intense (category 3-4-5) hurricanes. The net tropical cyclone activity is expected to be 110% of normal.

  10. Evidences linking ENSO and coral growth in the Southwestern-South Atlantic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evangelista, H. [LARAMG, Laboratorio de Radioecologia e Mudancas Globais/DBB/UERJ. Pav. HLC, Subsolo, Maracana, RJ (Brazil); Godiva, D. [LARAMG, Laboratorio de Radioecologia e Mudancas Globais/DBB/UERJ. Pav. HLC, Subsolo, Maracana, RJ (Brazil); Universidade Federal Fluminense, Outeiro Sao Joao Batista, s/n, Centro, Departamento de Geoquimica Ambiental, Niteroi, RJ (Brazil); Sifeddine, A. [IRD, Institut de Recherche Pour le Developpement, UR055 Paleotropique, Bondy (France); Universidade Federal Fluminense, Outeiro Sao Joao Batista, s/n, Centro, Departamento de Geoquimica Ambiental, Niteroi, RJ (Brazil); Leao, Z.M.A.N.; Kikuchi, R.K.P. [UFBA/Instituto de Geociencias. Rua Barao de Geremoabo, s/n, Federacao, Salvador, BA (Brazil); Rigozo, N.R. [LARAMG, Laboratorio de Radioecologia e Mudancas Globais/DBB/UERJ. Pav. HLC, Subsolo, Maracana, RJ (Brazil); FAETEC, Faculdade de Educacao e Tecnologia Thereza Porto Marques, Jacarei, SP (Brazil); Segal, B. [UFRJ/Museu Nacional/Setor de Celenterologia/Departamento de Invertebrados, Quinta da Boa Vista s/n, Sao Cristovao, RJ (Brazil); Ambrizzi, T. [USP/Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Kampel, M. [INPE/Divisao de Sensoriamento Remoto, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Cornec, F. le [Universidade Federal Fluminense, Outeiro Sao Joao Batista, s/n, Centro, Departamento de Geoquimica Ambiental, Niteroi, RJ (Brazil)

    2007-12-15

    Physical and biological changes in the marine environment, induced by oceanic-atmospheric processes, can be imprinted in massive coral skeletons. Herein, we present an evidence of potential El Nino impacts at the Southwestern South Atlantic Ocean (SWSA) inferred from the sclerochronology of the reef coral Favia leptophylla. The application of spectral analysis (wavelet decomposition and the iterative regression) to coral growth length and to meteorological-oceanographic parameters (air temperature, sea surface temperature and precipitation) as well as to Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and solar irradiation indicated a major significant inverse relationship between SOI and coral growth length at the 4-8 years frequency band. We propose here that coral growth length from the SWSA could be affected by El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events through an ''atmospheric bridge'', in contrast to its direct effect at the Pacific Ocean, related to the increase in sea surface temperature. (orig.)

  11. Blood-borne virus transmission in healthcare settings in Ireland: review of patient notification exercises 1997-2011.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Donohue, S

    2012-01-21

    A review of patient notification exercises (PNEs) carried out in Ireland between 1997 and 2011 to investigate potential exposure to blood-borne viruses (BBVs) in healthcare settings was undertaken to inform future policy and practice. A questionnaire was sent to key informants in the health services to identify all relevant PNEs. Structured interviews were conducted with key investigators, and available documentation was examined. Ten BBV-related PNEs were identified. Despite testing over 2000 patients, only one case of transmission was found. However, in-depth local investigations before undertaking the PNEs identified six cases of healthcare-associated transmission.

  12. Tendencias de mortalidad por traumatismos y envenenamientos en adolescentes: México, 1979-1997

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Celis Alfredo

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Describir las causas externas de la mortalidad por traumatismos y envenenamientos, así como la tendencia que estas causas han mostrado entre adolescentes en México, de 1979 a 1997. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Para la realización de este estudio descriptivo de la mortalidad se utilizaron las bases de datos de mortalidad registrada en México de 1979 a 1997. Los datos son recabados, codificados y capturados por el Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Geografía e Informática, y se obtuvieron a través del Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública. Los datos fueron tabulados durante el último semestre de 2000, en Jalisco, en la Unidad de Investigación Epidemiológica y en Servicios de Salud del Adolescente del Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social. RESULTADOS: Los traumatismos y envenenamientos ocuparon el primer lugar en la mortalidad del grupo adolescente (tasa de 13.35/100 000 con una tendencia descendente de -41.4% durante el periodo 1979-1997, no obstante el incremento de homicidios y suicidios (9.5% y 104.0% respectivamente. Los mecanismos más frecuentes fueron los vehículos de tráfico de motor, las armas de fuego, las intoxicaciones, las sofocaciones y las asfixias por inmersión. CONCLUSIONES: Los traumatismos y envenenamientos que experimenta la población de países en desarrollo muestran frecuencias diferentes a lo registrado en los más desarrollados, haciendo necesario el estudio de los mismos para implantar las medidas preventivas acordes con las condiciones socioculturales y ambientales de cada entorno.

  13. Teleconnections in Groundwater of U.S. Principal Aquifers to the Non-Stationarity of ENSO, NAO, PDO, and AMO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurdak, J. J.; Kuss, A. M.

    2012-12-01

    Groundwater will play an important role in society's adaptation to climate variability and change. Therefore, it is particularly important to detect and quantify teleconnections in groundwater with non-stationarity in climate variability on interannual to multidecadal timescales because of the tangible and near-term implications for water-resource management. Interannual to multidecadal climate variability partially controls precipitation distribution in space and time, drought frequency and severity, snowmelt runoff, streamflow, and other hydrologic processes that profoundly affects surface-water resources. However, the effects of interannual to multidecadal climate variability on recharge rates and mechanisms and other subsurface hydrologic processes that affect groundwater quantity and quality are largely unknown in most aquifers of the United States (U.S.) and other regions of the world. Here we use singular spectrum analysis (SSA), wavelet coherence analysis, and lag correlation to quantify the effects of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (2-7 year cycle), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (3-6 year cycle), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (10-25 year cycle), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) (50-70 year cycle) on precipitation, groundwater levels, simulated groundwater pumping, and climate varying recharge rates across the regionally extensive Central Valley (52,000 km2), Basin and Range (700,000 km2), High Plains (450,000 km2), and North Atlantic Coastal Plain (130,000 km2) Principal Aquifers (PAs) of the U.S. The results indicate that precipitation, recharge, and groundwater levels are partially affected by interannual to multidecadal climate variability and groundwater-level fluctuations are not solely a function of temporal patterns in pumping. ENSO and PDO have a greater control than NAO and AMO on variability in precipitation and groundwater levels across the U.S., particularly in the western and central PAs. At many locations, recharge

  14. The "El Alamo" project (1990-1997): two consecutive hospital-based studies of breast cancer outcomes in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martín, M; Mahillo, E; Llombart-Cussac, A; Lluch, A; Munarriz, B; Pastor, M; Alba, E; Ruiz, A; Antón, A; Bermejo, B

    2006-07-01

    The "Alamo" project is a retrospective analysis of 14,854 patients diagnosed of breast cancer between 1990 and 1997 in 50 Spanish hospitals. Alamo I (AI) consisted of 4,532 patients diagnosed with breast cancer between 1990 and 1993. Data were collected in 2000. Alamo II (AII) consisted of 10,322 patients diagnosed between 1994 and 1997. Data were collected in 2003. At presentation, there were (AI vs. AII) 17.6% vs. 24.3% at stage I; 55.5% vs. 53.1% at stage II; 18.7% vs. 15% at stage III; 7.2% vs. 5.9 at stage IV. Median age was 57 (AI) vs. 58 years (AII) and 65.9% vs. 67.2% (AI vs. AII) were post-menopausal. Firstline treatment for disease stages I, II and III was surgery in 91% of patients in both studies. Breast conserving surgery rate increased from 20.2% (AI) to 32.7% (AII). Adjuvant systemic treatments were administered to 87.6% (AI) and 92.8% (AII) of patients. Recurrence rate diminished from 36.6% (AI) to 22.5% (AII) and the 9-year survival rate increased from 63.2% (95% CI: 61.5-64.9) to 70.1% (95% CI: 68.5-71.8). Breast cancer outcomes in Spain have improved from 1990-1993 to 1994-1997, likely because of breast cancer screening program implementation and new therapies.

  15. Global Fire Emissions Indicators, Grids: 1997-2015

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Global Fire Emissions Indicators, Grids: 1997-2015 contain a time-series of rasters from 1997 to 2015 for total area burned (hectares) and total carbon content...

  16. Inter-decadal modulation of ENSO teleconnections to the Indian Ocean in a coupled model: Special emphasis on decay phase of El Niño

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdary, J. S.; Parekh, Anant; Gnanaseelan, C.; Sreenivas, P.

    2014-01-01

    Inter-decadal modulation of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections to tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) is investigated in the coupled general circulation model Climate Forecast System (CFS) using a hundred year integration. The model is able to capture the periodicity of El Niño variability, which is similar to that of the observations. The maximum TIO/north Indian Ocean (NIO) SST warming (during spring following the decay phase of El Niño) associated with El Niño is well captured by the model. Detailed analysis reveals that the surface heat flux variations mainly contribute to the El Niño forced TIO SST variations both in observations and model. However, spring warming is nearly stationary throughout the model integration period, indicating poor inter-decadal El Niño teleconnections. The observations on the other hand displayed maximum SST warming with strong seasonality from epoch to epoch. The model El Niño decay delayed by more than two seasons, results in persistent TIO/NIO SST warming through the following December unlike in the observations. The ocean wave adjustments and persistent westerly wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific are responsible for late decay of El Niño in the model. Consistent late decay of El Niño, throughout the model integration period (low variance), is mainly responsible for the poor inter-decadal ENSO teleconnections to TIO/NIO. This study deciphers that the model needs to produce El Niño decay phase variability correctly to obtain decadal-modulations in ENSO teleconnection.

  17. Variation characteristics and influences of climate factors on aridity index and its association with AO and ENSO in northern China from 1961 to 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Kexin; Qian, Xiaoqing; Liu, Puxing; Xu, Yihong; Cao, Liguo; Hao, Yongpei; Dai, Shengpei

    2017-10-01

    Analyses of the variation characteristics for aridity index (AI) can further enhance the understanding of climate change and have effect on hydrology and agriculture. In this paper, based on the data of 283 standard meteorological stations, the temporal-spatial variations and the influences of climate factors on AI were investigated and the relationship between AI and two climate indices (the Arctic Oscillation (AO); El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)) were also assessed in northern China (NC) during the period from 1961 to 2012. The results revealed that the annual mean AI decreased at the rate of -0.031 per decade in the past 52 years and the trend was statistically significant at the 0.01 level. The Mann-Kendall (M-K) test presented that the percentages of stations with positive trends and negative trends for AI were 10 and 81.9 % (22.6 % statistically significant), respectively. Spatially, in the western part of 100° E, the extremely dry area declined and the climate tended to become wet obviously. In the eastern part of 100° E, dry area moved toward the east and the south, which resulted in the enhancement of semiarid area and the shrinkage of subhumid area. The contributions of sunshine duration and precipitation to the decline of AI are more than those of other meteorological variables in NC. Moreover, the average temperature has risen significantly and AI decreased in NC, which indicated the existence of "paradox." Relationship between climate indices (AO and ENSO) and AI demonstrated that the influence of ENSO on AI overweight the AO on AI in NC.

  18. LULI 1997 activity report; LULI rapport annuel 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-07-01

    This document gathers the main results obtained by scientists from the LULI (laboratory for the use of intense lasers) unit in 1997. It is made up of 46 short articles and is organized into 5 topics: 1) laser-matter interaction, 2) hydrodynamics, shocks, material treatment, 3) atom physics, X-ray lasers, 4) progress in optics for power lasers, and 5) instrumentation and other advances.

  19. Resistencia antimicrobiana de Salmonella, Shigella y Vibrio cholerae: Perú 1997-2002

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabel Arias B

    2004-10-01

    Full Text Available La resistencia a los antimicrobianos es un problema de salud pública, en este caso se presentan los resultados de la resistencia antimicrobiana de Salmonella, Shigella y Vibrio cholerae entre los años 1997 y 2002 de las cepas confirmadas por el Instituto Nacional de Salud, procedentes de los laboratorios referenciales regionales de las diferentes direcciones de salud del Perú. La confirmación se realizó mediante bioquímica y serotipificación; para las pruebas de sensibilidad se utilizó el método de disco difusión. Se evaluaron un total de 542 cepas de Salmonella, 1034 de Shigella y 603 de Vibrio cholerae. La resistencia de Shigella frente a ampicilina muestra un promedio de 74,4% durante los 6 años; cloramfenicol con 65,9 %, cotrimoxazol con 72,2 %. En Salmonella se observa un promedio de 3,46 % para ampicilina; 2,83 % para cloranfenicol; en gentamicina 3,9 % y cotrimoxazol 1,1. V. Cholerae entre 1997 y 1999 mostraron promedios de resistencia de 19 % a cotrimoxazol, 12,1 % a tetraciclina y 10,2 % a ampicilina. A partir del año 2000, no se reportaron casos, por lo que se recibieron pocas cepas de esta especie. Se evidencia el problema de resistencia de Shigella frente a ampicilina, cloramfenicol y cotrimoxazol.

  20. The Singapore general election 1997

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Jinshan; Elklit, Jørgen

    1999-01-01

    The parliamentary eklection in singapore in January 1997 is examined, as is the particular electoral system ('the party block vote') which is found to be a central element in the electoral strategy of the ruling party, PAP. the functioning of this rare electoral system is, however, only one eleme...... in explaining how PAP has been able to win comfortable majorities in the House. The analysis contributes to the understandi9ng of how a semi-democratic regime can stay in power. The political and electoral process in relation to the 1997 election is also analysed......The parliamentary eklection in singapore in January 1997 is examined, as is the particular electoral system ('the party block vote') which is found to be a central element in the electoral strategy of the ruling party, PAP. the functioning of this rare electoral system is, however, only one element...

  1. VizieR Online Data Catalog: The distance modulus of the LMC (Kovacs, 2000)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovacs, G.

    2000-11-01

    This table provides periods, intensity averaged V magnitudes and magnitude averaged V-Rc (Johnson V & Kron-Cousins R) colors of the MACHO LMC double-mode RR Lyrae variables employed in the above paper. For the calculation of the averages, an iterative 3-sigma condition was used to omit outliers. Further references (coordinates, amplitude ratios, etc.) to these variables can be found in Alcock et al. (1997ApJ...482...89A) and in Alcock et al. (2000, Cat. ). Trasformation to the standard system has been performed in accordance with Alcock et al. (1999PASP..111.1539A). (1 data file).

  2. Assessing stock and change in land cover and biodiversity in GB: an introduction to Countryside Survey 2000

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Firbank, L.G.; Barr, C.J.; Bunce, R.G.H.; Furse, M.T.; Haines-Young, R.; Hornung, M.; Howard, D.C.; Sheail, J.; Sier, A.; Smart, S.M.

    2003-01-01

    Countryside Survey 2000 (CS2000) is the latest in a series of surveys designed to measure and evaluate stock and change of land cover, landscape features, freshwaters, habitats and the vegetation of Great Britain. The ideas behind CS2000 developed during the 1960s and 1970s and culminated in the

  3. A 600 k.y. record of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Evidence for persisting teleconnections during the Middle Eocene greenhouse climate of Central Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenz, Olaf K.; Wilde, Volker; Riegel, Walter; Harms, Franz-Juergen

    2010-07-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a globally important factor in today's climate dynamics. Annually laminated oil shales from the maar lake of Messel (Germany) provide high-resolution sedimentological and paleoenvironmental data of a time interval of ˜600 k.y. during the Eocene greenhouse phase. Individual laminae consist of a light spring and summer algal layer (Tetraedron minimum layer) and a dark winter layer composed of terrigenous background sediment. Four sections were selected from the core of the Messel 2001 well in order to count varves and to measure total varve thickness and the thickess of light and dark laminae. Spectral analyses were done in order to detect possible cyclic fluctuations in varve thickness. Fluctuations are significant in the quasi-biennial (2.1-2.5 yr) and low-frequency band (2.8-3.5 yr, 4.9-5.6 yr), thus showing that algal growth as well as the background sedimentation were controlled by ENSO effects at least over a time interval of 600 k.y. This confirms the existence of a previously postulated robust Eocene ENSO. Significant peaks within a quasi-decadal (10-11 yr), interdecadal (17-26 yr), and multidecadal band (˜52 yr, ˜82 yr) show either the enduring influence of more or less cyclic instabilities or the influence of solar cycles.

  4. Salmon Supplementation Studies in Idaho Rivers; Idaho Supplementation Studies, 2000-2001 Annual Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beasley, Chris; Tabor, R.A.; Kinzer, Ryan (Nez Perce Tribe, Department of Fisheries Resource Management, Lapwai, ID)

    2003-04-01

    Secesh River, and 180 in Lake Creek. We recovered 19 carcasses (11 natural 8 hatchery) in Legendary Bear Creek, one hatchery carcass in Fishing Creek, zero carcasses in Slate Creek, 82 carcasses (19 of unknown origin and 63 natural) in the Secesh River, and 178 carcasses (2 hatchery 176 natural) from Lake Creek. In 2000 the majority (82%) of carcasses were recovered in index spawning reaches. Preliminary analysis of brood year 1997 PIT tag return data for the Secesh River and Lake Creek yields LGJ to Lower Granite Dam (LGD) juvenile to adult survival rates of, 0.00% for parr, 0.20% for presmolts, and 3.13% for smolts. LGJ to LGD juvenile to adult return rates for brood year 1997 Legendary Bear Creek were 2.98% for naturally produced PIT tagged smolts and 0.89% for PIT tagged supplementation smolts. No adults were detected at LGD from brood year 1997 parr released in Fishing Creek.

  5. Regret and Responsibility Resolved? Evaluating Ordóñez and Connolly's (2000) Conclusions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeelenberg; van Dijk WW; Manstead

    2000-01-01

    T. Connolly, L. D. Ordo;aan;atez, and R. Coughlan (1997, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 70, 73-85) argued, on the basis of 5 experiments, that regret need not be related to a sense of responsibility for the regretted outcome. We (M. Zeelenberg, W. W. van Dijk, & A. S. R. Manstead, 1998, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 74, 254-272) showed in 2 experiments that this conclusion was premature, because it was based on an indirect measure of regret (i.e., overall happiness with the decision outcome). When regret was directly measured, the predicted effects of responsibility were found. L. D. Ordo;aan;atez and T. Connolly (2000, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 81, 132-142) replicated our findings in 2 experiments. Based on their findings they arrived at 4 conclusions. In this rejoinder we first discuss Ordóñez and Connolly's new studies and we then discuss the validity of their 4 conclusions. Copyright 2000 Academic Press.

  6. Influence of ENSO on Regional Indian Summer Monsoon Precipitation—Local Atmospheric Influences or Remote Influence from Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Indrani Roy

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Using CMIP5 model outputs in different El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO phases, this work investigates the indicator that could be used as an Index to characterise regional Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM precipitation. Dividing the Indian subcontinent into five arbitrarily chosen regions, viz. Central North East (CNE (18°N–31°N, 86°E–75°E, Hilly (H (28°N–38°N, 85°E–70°E, North West (NW (21°N–31°N, 79°E–67°E, North East (NE (21°N–31°N, 86°E–97°E and Southern India (S (18°N–7°N, 73°E–85°E, local wind field and remote influences from the tropical Pacific are considered to improve understanding of regional monsoon rainfall. Results are also compared with observations/reanalysis data to pinpoint areas of shortcomings and agreements. Model results suggest that regional wind velocity, viz. meridional wind component (V at 850 mb level (V850 and zonal component at 200 mb (U200 and 850 mb (U850 can yield better estimation of local precipitation in regions CNE, H and NW, agreeing well with earlier proposed monsoon Indices. Such observations are independent of different subcategories of ENSO phases and models show good correspondence with observations. Analyses with V at 200 mb (V200 indicate circulation of the upper branch of Hadley cells in regions CNE and S, though suggest the best agreement among models in comparison with other fields, but there are some deviations from observations, indicating a missing mechanism in the models. Using models, this study identified the best parameter in different regions that could be used for the regional monsoon Index, irrespective of various ENSO subcategories; for CNE it is the U200, for H it is U200 and U850, and for NW it is U850. The current analysis, however, fails to indicate anything clearly about the NE region. When focusing on the remote influence from the eastern Pacific region, it is found that atmospheric contribution to regional ISM precipitation fails to indicate

  7. Japan’s Role in Conflict Resolution and Effective Governance in Tajikistan: Case of the Tajik civil war, 1992-1997

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farrukh Usmonov

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Tajikistan faced Civil War in 1992-1997, which damaged country’s economy and infrastructure. Thus from 1994 Government and United Opposition with support of International society started Inter-Tajik negotiation process, which ended up with signing Peace Treaty in 1997. Japan unlike other countries of the region wasn’t much involved into conflict in Tajikistan, but in opposite, it was supportive into the peace enhancement in country. In 1999 Japanese government created platform for the Inter-Tajik Peace negotiators (including officials from government and opposition of Tajikistan, UN envoys, representatives from IOs and NGOs, Japanese MoFA and other experts and invited them to Japan to discuss outcome of the Peace Treaty and to look forward on solving remaining issues before Parliamentary election in year 2000. This project considered as final international dialogue between Tajikistani side and International society before country moves onward. Current paper focuses on topic which was discussed in Tokyo, and define outcome of this project.

  8. Energy Balance of the Sao Paulo State -1998 Base year 1997; Balanco energetico do Estado de Sao Paulo - 1998. Ano base 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-07-01

    This energy balance of the Sao Paulo State presents the following main topics that can be outstanding: panorama of the energy matrix; supply and demand of energy by source 1983-1997; energy consumption by sector 1983/1997; economic aspects; resources and reserves energy; and balance of the transformation centers 1983/1997.

  9. Status report 1993-1997 on solar energy research; Statusbericht 1993-1997 Schwerpunkt `Solarenergieforschung`

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fuhs, W; Lux-Steiner, M; Tributsch, H; Willig, F

    1998-09-01

    Solar energy research at the Berlin Hahn-Meitner-Institut (HMI) comprises the following subjects: (a) Silicon thin film solar cells; (b) High-absorption intermediate semiconductors; (c) Photoelectrochemistry and photocatalysis; (d) Injection-type solar cells; (e) Interdisciplinary projects, accompanying materials research and basic research. The 1993 - 1997 status report presents a detailed outline of the projects. [Deutsch] Im Zentrum der Solarenergieforschung des Hahn-Meitner-Instituts (HMI) stehen die folgenden Vorhaben: (a) Duennschichtsolarzellen aus Silizium; (b) Hochabsorbierende Verbindungsleiter; (c) Photoelectrochemie und Photokatalyse; (d) Injektionssolarzellen; (e) Querschnittsaufgaben, begleitende Material- und Grundlagenforschung. Diese Vorhaben werden von Projekten verschiedener Abteilungen getragen. Der vorliegende Statusbericht 1993-1997 gibt eine detaillierte Uebersicht ueber die oben genannten Projekte. (AKF)

  10. Impact of the year 2000 problem on the nuclear industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rae, A.C.

    1999-01-01

    The paper presents the activities that are taking place in the UK to regulate the nuclear industry through the Y2K critical dates. It identifies the basic steps which a licensee might be expected to take in addressing the Y2K problem. It also sets out the actions needed by the regulator, firstly to secure an acceptable justification of continued operation from the licensee for each critical date, and secondly to ensure that the regulatory body is itself prepared. A review of the activities towards these goals is provided for 1997 and 1998, some lessons learned from regulating through the first critical date are noted and a look-ahead made to the activities anticipated during 1999 and 2000. (author)

  11. 1997 annual report; Rapport annuel 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-12-31

    This 1997 issue of the annual report of the French Commissariat a l`Energie Atomique (CEA) gives a general overview of the CEA organization, activities, human resources, international relations and communication with some budgetary information. The main activities described concern the national defence, the fuel cycle, the nuclear reactors, the nuclear protection and safety, the advanced technologies, the quasi-particles, the effects of ionizing radiations on humans, the medical imagery, the transfer of technology, the protection and valorization of knowledge, the radioactive wastes and spent fuels management, the training and teaching, the scientific prizes, the committees, councils and commissions. (O.M.)

  12. 1997 annual report; Rapport annuel 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-12-31

    This 1997 issue of the annual report of the French Commissariat a l`Energie Atomique (CEA) gives a general overview of the CEA organization, activities, human resources, international relations and communication with some budgetary information. The main activities described concern the national defence, the fuel cycle, the nuclear reactors, the nuclear protection and safety, the advanced technologies, the quasi-particles, the effects of ionizing radiations on humans, the medical imagery, the transfer of technology, the protection and valorization of knowledge, the radioactive wastes and spent fuels management, the training and teaching, the scientific prizes, the committees, councils and commissions. (O.M.)

  13. The Indigenous World, 1997-98 = El Mundo Indigena, 1997-98.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erni, Christian, Ed.

    This annual publication (published separately in English and Spanish) examines political, legal, social, environmental, and educational issues concerning indigenous peoples around the world during 1997-98. Part I highlights news events and ongoing situations in specific countries in nine world regions. In the Arctic and North America, these…

  14. Epidemiological trends of deep venous thrombosis in HIV-infected subjects (1997-2013): A nationwide population-based study in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvaro-Meca, Alejandro; Ryan, Pablo; Martínez-Larrull, Esther; Micheloud, Dariela; Berenguer, Juan; Resino, Salvador

    2018-02-01

    Chronic infections may be a triggering factor as well as a risk factor of deep venous thrombosis (DVT). The purpose of this study was to analyze the epidemiological trends of hospital admissions related to DVT in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients during the combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) era, in relation to hepatitis C virus (HCV) serological status. We performed a retrospective study using the Spanish Minimum Basic Data Set. We selected HIV-infected subjects over 15years old with a hospital admission and DVT diagnosis (ICD-9-CM codes: 453.4x and 453.8x) between 1997 and 2013. Patients were classified according to HCV serology. We estimated the incidence (events per 100,000 patient-years) in four calendar periods (1997-1999, 2000-2003, 2004-2007, and 2008-2013). Overall, the incidence of DVT-related hospitalizations had a significant upward trend in all HIV-infected patients (PHIV-monoinfected patients than in HIV/HCV-coinfected patients during the entire follow-up (PHIV-monoinfected patients (P=0.002) and a significant upward trend in HIV/HCV-coinfected patients (PHIV-monoinfected patients significantly decreased from 1997-1999 to 2008-2013 [142.7 vs. 103.1 (P=0.006)], whereas in HIV/HCV-coinfected patients, the incidence increased from 8.4 (1997-1999) to 70.7 (2008-2013) (PHIV-infected patients, with increasing incidence during the first 17years after the introduction of cART, particularly in HIV/HCV-coinfected patients. Copyright © 2017 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Coal industry annual 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-12-01

    Coal Industry Annual 1997 provides comprehensive information about US coal production, number of mines, prices, productivity, employment, productive capacity, and recoverable reserves. US Coal production for 1997 and previous years is based on the annual survey EIA-7A, Coal Production Report. This report presents data on coal consumption, coal distribution, coal stocks, coal prices, and coal quality for Congress, Federal and State agencies, the coal industry, and the general public. Appendix A contains a compilation of coal statistics for the major coal-producing States. This report includes a national total coal consumption for nonutility power producers that are not in the manufacturing, agriculture, mining, construction, or commercial sectors. 14 figs., 145 tabs.

  16. Coal industry annual 1997

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-12-01

    Coal Industry Annual 1997 provides comprehensive information about US coal production, number of mines, prices, productivity, employment, productive capacity, and recoverable reserves. US Coal production for 1997 and previous years is based on the annual survey EIA-7A, Coal Production Report. This report presents data on coal consumption, coal distribution, coal stocks, coal prices, and coal quality for Congress, Federal and State agencies, the coal industry, and the general public. Appendix A contains a compilation of coal statistics for the major coal-producing States. This report includes a national total coal consumption for nonutility power producers that are not in the manufacturing, agriculture, mining, construction, or commercial sectors. 14 figs., 145 tabs

  17. Seasonal influence of ENSO on the Atlantic ITCZ and equatorial South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Münnich, M.; Neelin, J. D.

    2005-11-01

    In late boreal spring, especially May, a strong relationship exists in observations among precipitation anomalies over equatorial South America and the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), and eastern equatorial Pacific and central equatorial Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). A chain of correlations of equatorial Pacific SSTA, western equatorial Atlantic wind stress (WEA), equatorial Atlantic SSTA, sea surface height, and precipitation supports a causal chain in which El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) induces WEA stress anomalies, which in turn affect Atlantic equatorial ocean dynamics. These correlations show strong seasonality, apparently arising within the atmospheric links of the chain. This pathway and the influence of equatorial Atlantic SSTA on South American rainfall in May appear independent of that of the northern tropical Atlantic. Brazil's Nordeste is affected by the northern tropical Atlantic. The equatorial influence lies further to the north over the eastern Amazon and the Guiana Highlands.

  18. Communication of 17 April 2000 received from the Permanent Mission of the Russian Federation to the International Atomic Energy Agency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    The document reproduces the text of the Communication of 17 April 2000 received from the Permanent Mission of the Russian Federation to the International Atomic Energy Agency, including a statement by the Acting President of the Russian Federation in connection with the ratification by the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation of START-II Treaty and the package agreements on antimissile defence of 1997

  19. Final Report for Annex II--Assessment of Solar Radiation Resources In Saudi Arabia, 1998-2000

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Myers, D. R.; Wilcox, S. M.; Marion, W. F.; Al-Abbadi, N. M.; Mahfoodh, M.; Al-Otaibi, Z.

    2002-04-01

    The Final Report for Annex II - Assessment of Solar Radiation Resources in Saudi Arabia 1998-2000 summarizes the accomplishment of work performed, results achieved, and products produced under Annex II, a project established under the Agreement for Cooperation in the Field of Renewable Energy Research and Development between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United States. The report covers work and accomplishments from January 1998 to December 2000. A previous progress report, Progress Report for Annex II - Assessment of Solar Radiation Resources in Saudi Arabia 1993-1997, NREL/TP-560-29374, summarizes earlier work and technical transfer of information under the project. The work was performed in at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in Golden, Colorado, at the King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology (KACST) in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and at selected weather stations of the Saudi Meteorological and Environmental Protection Administration (MEPA).

  20. READ Perspectives 1997.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, Rosalie Pedalino, Ed.; Thomsen, Kerri Lynne, Ed.; Kimbrell, William, W., Ed.

    1997-01-01

    This document comprises the two 1997 issues of the journal. Articles include the following: "The Importance of Learning English: A National Survey of Hispanic Parents" (Michael La Velle); "The Languages of Immigrants" (Charles L. Glenn); "Follow-Up Study on the Bethlehem, PA School District's English Acquisition…

  1. Bibliometric trends in ophthalmology 1997-2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad M Mansour

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims: To track citation patterns in ophthalmic journals and contrast them with major medical and surgical journals from 1997 to 2009. In addition, we want to familiarize the ophthalmic community with bibliometrics indices. Materials and Methods: Data retrieved from Institute for Scientific Information and related websites include 2-year journal impact factor JIF, 5-year impact, Eigenfactor score, H-factor, Article Influence score, and SCImago factor. Results: JIF rose steadily around 10% annually in ophthalmic journals, and likewise for major medical and surgical journals. JIF correlated with recent bibliometric indicators like 5-year impact, H index, and SCImago factor but not with Eigenfactor. Ophthalmic journals publishing reviews, basic science, or large volume on broad range of topics ranked at the top for JIF, while subspecialty journals tended to have low JIF. JIF of subspecialty journal Retina rose from 0.740 (rank 23 in 2000 to 3.088 in 2007 (rank 6. Conclusions: JIF tends to rise annually by 10% in medical, surgical, and ophthalmic fields. Journals publishing reviews, basic science, or large volume on broad range of topics rank at the top for JIF. The rapid rise of JIF for Retina unlike other subspecialties that stayed status quo is multifactorial: Change in editorial policies (introduction of review articles and omission of case reports and technological advances in the retinal field.

  2. OCRWM annual report to Congress, fiscal year 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-07-01

    This report presents the progress in the activities of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management. Chapters include: Yucca Mountain site characterization project; Waste acceptance, storage and transportation project; Program management; Working with external parties; and Financial management. Also included in five appendices are: financial statements; key federal laws and regulations; fiscal year 1997 Congressional testimony and meetings with regulators and oversight bodies; OCREM publications for fiscal year 1997; and selected publications from other organizations during fiscal year 1997.

  3. OCRWM annual report to Congress, fiscal year 1997

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-07-01

    This report presents the progress in the activities of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management. Chapters include: Yucca Mountain site characterization project; Waste acceptance, storage and transportation project; Program management; Working with external parties; and Financial management. Also included in five appendices are: financial statements; key federal laws and regulations; fiscal year 1997 Congressional testimony and meetings with regulators and oversight bodies; OCREM publications for fiscal year 1997; and selected publications from other organizations during fiscal year 1997

  4. Quarterly coal report, July--September 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-02-01

    The Quarterly Coal Report (QCR) provides comprehensive information about US coal production, distribution, exports, imports, receipts, prices, consumption, and stocks. Coke production consumption, distribution, imports, and exports data are also provided. This report presents detailed quarterly data for July through September 1997 and aggregated quarterly historical data for 1991 through the second quarter of 1997. Appendix A displays, from 1991 on, detailed quarterly historical coal imports data. 72 tabs.

  5. Fiscal year 1997-1998 waste information requirements document

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poppiti, J.A.

    1997-01-01

    The Waste Information Requirements Document describes the activities of the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Characterization Project that provide characterization information on Hanford Site waste tanks. The characterization information is required to perform operations and meet the commitments of TWRS end users. These commitments are derived from the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order, also known as the Tri-Party Agreement; the Recommendation 93-5 Implementation Plan to the Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board (DNFSB); and other directives as listed in Section 4.0. This Waste Information Requirement Document applies to Fiscal Years 1997 and 1998 activities. Its contents are based on the best information available in August 1997. The format and content are based on the directions of DOE-RL (Sieracki, 1997) and Fluor Daniel Hanford Incorporated (Umek, 1997). Activities, such as the revision of the Tank Characterization Technical Sampling Basis (Brown et al. 1997), the revision of the data quality objectives (DQOs), issue closures, discussions with Ecology, and management decisions may cause subsequent updates to the Waste Information Requirements Document

  6. FY 1997 - FY 2000 reports on the results of the development of commercialization technology of the photovoltaic power system. Summary. R and D of the photovoltaic power generation utilization system/periphery technology (R and D of high reliability storage batteries); 1997-2000 nendo New sunshine keikaku seika hokokusho (Sokatsu ban). - Taiyoko hatsuden system jitsuyoka gijutsu kaihatsu, Taiyoko hatsuden riyo system shuhen gijutsu no kenkyu kaihatsu (Koshinraisei chikuden sochi no kenkyu kaihatsu)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-03-01

    The R and D/evaluation were made from FY 1997 to FY 2000 of lead storage batteries that are applicable to the use for the absorption of abrupt power variations in photovoltaic power generation and peak shift/emergency use power source, and the results were summed up. In the study for prolonging the life, the following were carried out: development of the inexpensive corrosion-resistant lead alloy positive grid applicable to the photovoltaic power generation, development of the negative active material with a high sulfation control effect, selection of silica powder as electrolyte retainer, development of the charging control technology by the multi-stage constant current method, etc. As a result, energy density of the battery was more than 70W/L as a target, and the target life of 3,000 cycles was achieved in the life test. Further, cost reduction and deterioration judgment were studied. In the study of the group of batteries, a management system for group of batteries was developed. As a result of the 1-year field test, there were no problems on durability of the storage case, temperature difference among batteries, rise in temperature, etc. As to the developed seal type lead storage battery, the applicability to the photovoltaic power generation was acquired. (NEDO)

  7. Inter-decadal change in potential predictability of the East Asian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jiao; Ding, Ruiqiang; Wu, Zhiwei; Zhong, Quanjia; Li, Baosheng; Li, Jianping

    2018-05-01

    The significant inter-decadal change in potential predictability of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) has been investigated using the signal-to-noise ratio method. The relatively low potential predictability appears from the early 1950s through the late 1970s and during the early 2000s, whereas the potential predictability is relatively high from the early 1980s through the late 1990s. The inter-decadal change in potential predictability of the EASM can be attributed mainly to variations in the external signal of the EASM. The latter is mostly caused by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) inter-decadal variability. As a major external signal of the EASM, the ENSO inter-decadal variability experiences phase transitions from negative to positive phases in the late 1970s, and to negative phases in the late 1990s. Additionally, ENSO is generally strong (weak) during a positive (negative) phase of the ENSO inter-decadal variability. The strong ENSO is expected to have a greater influence on the EASM, and vice versa. As a result, the potential predictability of the EASM tends to be high (low) during a positive (negative) phase of the ENSO inter-decadal variability. Furthermore, a suite of Pacific Pacemaker experiments suggests that the ENSO inter-decadal variability may be a key pacemaker of the inter-decadal change in potential predictability of the EASM.

  8. Impacts of Interannual Climate Variability on Agricultural and Marine Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cane, M. A.; Zebiak, S.; Kaplan, A.; Chen, D.

    2001-01-01

    The El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of global interannual climate variability, and seems to be the only mode for which current prediction methods are more skillful than climatology or persistence. The Zebiak and Cane intermediate coupled ocean-atmosphere model has been in use for ENSO prediction for more than a decade, with notable success. However, the sole dependence of its original initialization scheme and the improved initialization on wind fields derived from merchant ship observations proved to be a liability during 1997/1998 El Nino event: the deficiencies of wind observations prevented the oceanic component of the model from reaching the realistic state during the year prior to the event, and the forecast failed. Our work on the project was concentrated on the use of satellite data for improving various stages of ENSO prediction technology: model initialization, bias correction, and data assimilation. Close collaboration with other teams of the IDS project was maintained throughout.

  9. The Knowledge Wall for the Global 2000 War Game: Design Solutions to Match JOC User Requirements

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Smallman, H

    2001-01-01

    ...) for the Global 2000 War Game. What features and content should this new display possess? This report presents a Knowledge Wall design capable of meeting these requirements and elaborates its design features from the 'ground...

  10. De verkeersonveiligheid in Nederland tot en met 1997 : analyse van aard, omvang en ontwikkelingen in de periode 1985-1997.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Davidse, R.J. (red.)

    1999-01-01

    This report presents an analysis of the general developments in road safety in The Netherlands, with a special focus on the year 1997. During 1997, for the first time since 1991, the number of road deaths decreased slightly. This positive development did not apply to the numbers of in-patients.

  11. ENSO Weather and Coral Bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGowan, Hamish; Theobald, Alison

    2017-10-01

    The most devastating mass coral bleaching has occurred during El Niño events, with bleaching reported to be a direct result of increased sea surface temperatures (SSTs). However, El Niño itself does not cause SSTs to rise in all regions that experience bleaching. Nor is the upper ocean warming trend of 0.11°C per decade since 1971, attributed to global warming, sufficient alone to exceed the thermal tolerance of corals. Here we show that weather patterns during El Niño that result in reduced cloud cover, higher than average air temperatures and higher than average atmospheric pressures, play a crucial role in determining the extent and location of coral bleaching on the world's largest coral reef system, the World Heritage Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. Accordingly, synoptic-scale weather patterns and local atmosphere-ocean feedbacks related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and not large-scale SST warming due to El Niño alone and/or global warming are often the cause of coral bleaching on the GBR.

  12. 1997 Scientific Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-01-01

    The report summarises the status and main achievements of various programmes at the Belgian Nuclear Research Centre SCK-CEN in the year 1997. The report contains five major sections: (1) radiation protection; (2) reactor safety; (3) radioactive waste and clean-up; (4) BR2 operation and (5) exploratory R and D

  13. 1997 Scientific Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-07-01

    The report summarises the status and main achievements of various programmes at the Belgian Nuclear Research Centre SCK-CEN in the year 1997. The report contains five major sections: (1) radiation protection; (2) reactor safety; (3) radioactive waste and clean-up; (4) BR2 operation and (5) exploratory R and D.

  14. Carryover effects associated with winter location affect fitness, social status, and population dynamics in a long-distance migrant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sedinger, James S; Schamber, Jason L; Ward, David H; Nicolai, Christopher A; Conant, Bruce

    2011-11-01

    We used observations of individually marked female black brant geese (Branta bernicla nigricans; brant) at three wintering lagoons on the Pacific coast of Baja California-Laguna San Ignacio (LSI), Laguna Ojo de Liebre (LOL), and Bahía San Quintín (BSQ)-and the Tutakoke River breeding colony in Alaska to assess hypotheses about carryover effects on breeding and distribution of individuals among wintering areas. We estimated transition probabilities from wintering locations to breeding and nonbreeding by using multistratum robust-design capture-mark-recapture models. We also examined the effect of breeding on migration to wintering areas to assess the hypothesis that individuals in family groups occupied higher-quality wintering locations. We used 4,538 unique female brant in our analysis of the relationship between winter location and breeding probability. All competitive models of breeding probability contained additive effects of wintering location and the 1997-1998 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event on probability of breeding. Probability of breeding in non-ENSO years was 0.98 ± 0.02, 0.68 ± 0.04, and 0.91 ± 0.11 for females wintering at BSQ, LOL, and LSI, respectively. After the 1997-1998 ENSO event, breeding probability was between 2% (BSQ) and 38% (LOL) lower than in other years. Individuals that bred had the highest probability of migrating the next fall to the wintering area producing the highest probability of breeding.

  15. Carryover effects associated with winter location affect fitness, social status, and population dynamics in a long-distance migrant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sedinger, James S.; Schamber, Jason L.; Ward, David H.; Nicolai, Christopher A.; Conant, Bruce

    2011-01-01

    We used observations of individually marked female black brant geese (Branta bernicla nigricans; brant) at three wintering lagoons on the Pacific coast of Baja California—Laguna San Ignacio (LSI), Laguna Ojo de Liebre (LOL), and Bahía San Quintín (BSQ)—and the Tutakoke River breeding colony in Alaska to assess hypotheses about carryover effects on breeding and distribution of individuals among wintering areas. We estimated transition probabilities from wintering locations to breeding and nonbreeding by using multistratum robust-design capture-mark-recapture models. We also examined the effect of breeding on migration to wintering areas to assess the hypothesis that individuals in family groups occupied higher-quality wintering locations. We used 4,538 unique female brant in our analysis of the relationship between winter location and breeding probability. All competitive models of breeding probability contained additive effects of wintering location and the 1997–1998 El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event on probability of breeding. Probability of breeding in non-ENSO years was 0.98 ± 0.02, 0.68 ± 0.04, and 0.91 ± 0.11 for females wintering at BSQ, LOL, and LSI, respectively. After the 1997–1998 ENSO event, breeding probability was between 2% (BSQ) and 38% (LOL) lower than in other years. Individuals that bred had the highest probability of migrating the next fall to the wintering area producing the highest probability of breeding.

  16. Climatology of Blizzards in the Conterminous United States, 1959-2000.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Robert M.; Schmidlin, Thomas W.

    2002-07-01

    A blizzard is defined by the U.S. National Weather Service as winds over 16 m s1 and falling or blowing snow causing visibility less than 400 m lasting for at least 3 h. Blizzard occurrence by county was tallied from Storm Data for the 41 winters from 1959/60 to 1999/2000. This revealed 438 blizzards for an annual average of 10.7, ranging from 1 blizzard in 1980/81 to 27 blizzards in 1996/97. The average area affected per blizzard was 150 492 km2 and the average number of people in affected counties was 2 462 949 per blizzard. There was a significant linear increase in the number of blizzards but no linear trend in the total area affected by blizzards or the population in affected counties during the period. Blizzards were most common in a `blizzard zone' of North Dakota, South Dakota, and western Minnesota where each county had 41 or more blizzards in these 41 winters and the annual probability of a blizzard in each county exceeded 50%. Monthly occurrence of blizzards peaked during January in most areas, but during December in the Sierra Nevada, during March in the central Great Plains, and during April in Montana. There was weak correlation between the ENSO phase and the number of blizzards, with a tendency for more blizzards during La Niña and fewer during El Niño.

  17. Radical prostatectomies in Austria, 1997–2004

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schatzl Georg

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The introduction of PSA testing in Austria led to a steep increase of the incidence of prostate cancer. We want to present the course of the number of newly diagnosed cases of prostate cancer in Austria since 1997, and set these numbers in relation to the total of radical prostatectomies (with resection of lymph nodes in the same time period. All numbers were retrieved from health statistics of Statistics Austria. The report period of cancer cases and of RPE comprises the years 1997–2004. All calculations were performed for totals as well as for 5-year age groups (40–89 years of age. Findings The number of prostate cancer cases rose from 1997 to 2004 by 35%, while the number of RPE rose by 94% in the same time period. The proportion of RPE in relation to new cases rose from 41% in 1997 to 59% in 2004. Conclusion A slight decrease of prostate cancer mortality can already be observed in Austria, but the question of over-treatment still awaits analysis.

  18. Savannah River Site 1997 epidemiologic surveillance report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    This report provides a summary of epidemiologic surveillance data collected from Savannah River Site from January 1, 1997 through December 31, 1997. The data were collected by a coordinator at Savannah River Site and submitted to the Epidemiologic Surveillance Data Center located at Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education, where quality control procedures and preliminary data analyses were carried out. The analyses were interpreted and the final report prepared by the DOE Office of Epidemiologic Studies. The information in this report provides highlights of the data analyses conducted on the 1997 data collected from Savannah River Site. The main sections of the report include: work force characteristics; absences due to injury or illness lasting 5 or more consecutive workdays; workplace illnesses, injuries, and deaths that were reportable to the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (''OSHA-recordable'' events); and disabilities and deaths among current workers. The 199 7 report includes a section on time trends that provides comparative information on the health of the work force from 1994 through 1997

  19. Boundaries - 1997 Red River of the North Flood

    Data.gov (United States)

    Army Corps of Engineers, Department of the Army, Department of Defense — Digital outline of the 1997 flood event. 1997 flooded outline extends from Emerson, Manitoba to Wahpeton, North Dakota. Delineations exist for the entire main stem...

  20. Analysis of 1997–2008 groundwater level changes in the upper Deschutes Basin, Central Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gannett, Marshall W.; Lite, Kenneth E.

    2013-01-01

    Groundwater-level monitoring in the upper Deschutes Basin of central Oregon from 1997 to 2008 shows water-level declines in some places that are larger than might be expected from climate variations alone, raising questions regarding the influence of groundwater pumping, canal lining (which decreases recharge), and other human influences. Between the mid-1990s and mid-2000s, water levels in the central part of the basin near Redmond steadily declined as much as 14 feet. Water levels in the Cascade Range, in contrast, rose more than 20 feet from the mid-1990s to about 2000, and then declined into the mid-2000s, with little or no net change. An existing U.S. Geological Survey regional groundwater-flow model was used to gain insights into groundwater-level changes from 1997 to 2008, and to determine the relative influence of climate, groundwater pumping, and irrigation canal lining on observed water-level trends. To utilize the model, input datasets had to be extended to include post-1997 changes in groundwater pumping, changes in recharge from precipitation, irrigation canal leakage, and deep percolation of applied irrigation water (also known as on-farm loss). Mean annual groundwater recharge from precipitation during the 1999–2008 period was 25 percent less than during the 1979–88 period because of drying climate conditions. This decrease in groundwater recharge is consistent with measured decreases in streamflow and discharge to springs. For example, the mean annual discharge of Fall River, which is a spring-fed stream, decreased 12 percent between the 1979–88 and 1999–2008 periods. Between the mid-1990s and late 2000s, groundwater pumping for public-supply and irrigation uses increased from about 32,500 to 52,000 acre-feet per year, partially because of population growth. Between 1997 and 2008, the rate of recharge from leaking irrigation canals decreased by about 58,000 acre-feet per year as a result of lining and piping of canals. Decreases in recharge

  1. Tropical Ocean Evaporation/SST Sensitivity and It's Link to Water and Energy Budget Variations During ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Franklin R.; Marshall, Susan; Oglesby, Robert; Roads, John; Sohn, Byung-Ju; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The continuing debate over feedback mechanisms governing tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and tropical climate in general has highlighted the diversity of potential checks and balances within the climate system. Competing feedbacks due to changes in surface evaporation, water vapor, and cloud long- and shortwave radiative properties each may serve critical roles in stabilizing or destabilizing the climate system. It is also intriguing that even those climate variations having origins internal to the climate system - changes in ocean heat transport for example, apparently require complementary equilibrating effects by changes in atmospheric energy fluxes. Perhaps the best observational evidence of this is the relatively invariant nature of tropically averaged net radiation exiting the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) as measured by broadband satellite sensors over the past two decades. Thus, analyzing how these feedback mechanisms are operating within the context of current interannual variability may offer considerable insight for anticipating future climate change. In this paper we focus primarily on interannual variations of ocean evaporative fluxes and their significance for coupled water and energy cycles within the tropical climate system. In particular, we use both the da Silva estimates of surface fluxes (based on the Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set, COADS) and numerical simulations from several global climate models to examine evaporation sensitivity to perturbations in SST associated with warm and cold ENSO events. The specific questions we address are as follows: (1) What recurring patterns of surface wind and humidity anomalies are present during ENSO and how do they combine to yield systematic evaporation anomalies?, (2) What is the resulting tropical ocean mean evaporation-SST sensitivity associated with this climate perturbation?, and (3) What role does this evaporation play in tropical heat and water balance over tropical oceanic regions? We

  2. Framatome. 1997 annual report; Framatome. Rapport annuel 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-07-01

    The Framatome group is the first nuclear engineering group worldwide and the number three in connectors engineering. in the nuclear domain, Framatome is manufacturer of reactors, supplier of fuels and provides specialized services. This activity report summarizes the highlights, key data and economic position of the group, the nuclear activities (realizations, fuels, services, non-destructive testing), the construction of industrial equipment (electromechanics, alternators, turbines, compressors, heat exchangers etc..), the connectors engineering activity, and the financial and economical results of the group for 1997. (J.S.)

  3. Andes 1997 Gravity Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Central Andes gravity data (6,151 records) were compiled by Professor Gotze and the MIGRA Group. This data base was received in April, 1997. Principal gravity...

  4. Instream Biological Assessment of NPDES Point Source Discharges at the Savannah River Site, 2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Specht, W.L.

    2001-01-01

    The Savannah River Site (SRS) currently has 31 NPDES outfalls that have been permitted by the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control (SCDHEC) to discharge to SRS streams and the Savannah River. In order to determine the cumulative impacts of these discharges to the receiving streams, a study plan was developed to perform in-stream assessments of the fish assemblages, macroinvertebrate assemblages, and habitats of the receiving streams. These studies were designed to detect biological impacts due to point source discharges. Sampling was initially conducted between November 1997 and July 1998 and was repeated in the summer and fall of 2000. A total of 18 locations were sampled (Table 1, Figure 1). Sampling locations for fish and macroinvertebrates were generally the same. However, different locations were sampled for fish (Road A-2) and macroinvertebrates (Road C) in the lower portion of Upper Three Runs, to avoid interference with ongoing fisheries studies at Road C. Also, fish were sampled in Fourmile Branch at Road 4 rather than at Road F because the stream at Road F was too narrow and shallow to support many fish. Sampling locations and parameters are detailed in Sections 2 and 3 of this report. In general, sampling locations were selected that would permit comparisons upstream and downstream of NPDES outfalls. In instances where this approach was not feasible because effluents discharge into the headwaters of a stream, appropriate unimpacted reference were used for comparison purposes. This report summarizes the results of the sampling that was conducted in 2000 and also compares these data to the data that were collected in 1997 and 1998

  5. Acute poisoning with psychoactive substances in the 1990-2000 period of socioeconomic transition and crisis in Plovdiv region, Bulgaria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Illiev, Y; Akabaliev, V

    2002-06-01

    The "opening" of the post-totalitarian societies of Eastern Europe increased the illegal spread of psychoactive substances (PAS) in the past decade. We studied psychoactive substance acute poisoning (PAS AP)--types of toxic agents involved, incidence rates, and their changes--as indirect indicators of the characteristics, magnitude and development of the problem in Bulgaria during the 1990-2000 period of socioeconomic transition and crisis after collapse of communism. The study analyzed retrospectively the caseload of all 571 PAS acute poisonings that occurred in the territory: 417 men (73%) and 154 women (27%); mean age 24.07y (range 10-75). The number of all AP and PAS AP showed a marked increase during the last 3years of the studied period, especially in 2000. The average PAS AP incidence rate for 1998-2000 (13.50/100,000) compared to the mean value for the preceding period 1990-1997 (5.76/100,000) showed a 2.34 fold increase. Acute alcohol intoxication was 62.7%, of all PASAP; the opioid 15.2% (heroin 11.0%, other opioids 4.2%); prescribed and over the counter drugs 12.6%; inhalants 1.1%; cannabis 1.1%; and cocaine 0.7%. Amphetamine (or amphetamine-like), hallucinogens and phencyclidine (or phencyclidine-like) AP were not encountered. The average percentage of alcohol AP for 1998-2000 compared to the preceding 1990-1997 dropped from 78.12% to 44.72% (1.75 fold), while that of opioids rose from 6.59% to 26.47% (4.02 fold), and that of the other drugs group from 12.22% to 21.78% (1.78 fold increase). The new non-alcoholic PAS AP (heroin, cocaine, inhalants and cannabis AP, as indirect indicators of narcotic exposure) showed a rapid increase. The data showed they are expanding and catching up with alcohol as a new cause of substance-related problems, thus becoming one of the important health and social problems of post-totalitarian society.

  6. 1997 Progress report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cecchini, M.; Crescentini, L.; Ghezzi, L. [ENEA, Centro Ricerche Frascati, Rome (Italy). Nuclear fusion division

    1997-12-31

    1997 was another year of intense activity for the ENEA Nuclear Fusion Division in the evolving scenario of fusion research. With respect to the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER), a major review process has started, originate by the wide perception that the difficult financial situation affecting some of the parties would make it very difficult, practically impossible, to secure funding for the project as it stands. To scale down the size and cost of the machine by reducing the technical objectives, while keeping to the programmatic goal of constructing a demonstration reactor (DEMO) as the following step, appears achievable. Progress in physics was substantial during 1997. Analysis of the huge existing database, complemented by the latest results, had led to a better, more accurate scaling for the confinement time on which to base extrapolation to ITER. Studies of the very promising advanced regimes have been pursued on many tokamaks. The Frascati Tokamak Upgrade (FTU) is well placed in this respect since it is equipped with the right tools, lower hybrid and electron cyclotron radiofrequency heating and current drive systems, to explore the new promised land of low transport from the plasma core. The main highlights of FTU operation in 1997 were related to providing information relevant to these future developments. Transient production of low transport regimes with electron temperatures of 8-9 keV at the plasma center was obtained by taking advantage of the plasma skin effect and precise electron cyclotron power deposition. High-efficiency current drive at high density using lower hybrid waves was demonstrated. High-confinement pellet-enhanced modes of operation and good ion Bernstein wave coupling through the waveguide-type coupler were also achieved. Concerning the IGNITOR experiment, funds were made available only for continuation of the engineering design activities, and nothing has been released so far for manufacturing the additional

  7. 1997 Progress report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cecchini, M.; Crescentini, L.; Ghezzi, L.

    1997-01-01

    1997 was another year of intense activity for the ENEA Nuclear Fusion Division in the evolving scenario of fusion research. With respect to the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER), a major review process has started, originate by the wide perception that the difficult financial situation affecting some of the parties would make it very difficult, practically impossible, to secure funding for the project as it stands. To scale down the size and cost of the machine by reducing the technical objectives, while keeping to the programmatic goal of constructing a demonstration reactor (DEMO) as the following step, appears achievable. Progress in physics was substantial during 1997. Analysis of the huge existing database, complemented by the latest results, had led to a better, more accurate scaling for the confinement time on which to base extrapolation to ITER. Studies of the very promising advanced regimes have been pursued on many tokamaks. The Frascati Tokamak Upgrade (FTU) is well placed in this respect since it is equipped with the right tools, lower hybrid and electron cyclotron radiofrequency heating and current drive systems, to explore the new promised land of low transport from the plasma core. The main highlights of FTU operation in 1997 were related to providing information relevant to these future developments. Transient production of low transport regimes with electron temperatures of 8-9 keV at the plasma center was obtained by taking advantage of the plasma skin effect and precise electron cyclotron power deposition. High-efficiency current drive at high density using lower hybrid waves was demonstrated. High-confinement pellet-enhanced modes of operation and good ion Bernstein wave coupling through the waveguide-type coupler were also achieved. Concerning the IGNITOR experiment, funds were made available only for continuation of the engineering design activities, and nothing has been released so far for manufacturing the additional

  8. 1997 Progress report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cecchini, M; Crescentini, L; Ghezzi, L [ENEA, Centro Ricerche Frascati, Rome (Italy). Nuclear fusion division

    1998-12-31

    1997 was another year of intense activity for the ENEA Nuclear Fusion Division in the evolving scenario of fusion research. With respect to the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER), a major review process has started, originate by the wide perception that the difficult financial situation affecting some of the parties would make it very difficult, practically impossible, to secure funding for the project as it stands. To scale down the size and cost of the machine by reducing the technical objectives, while keeping to the programmatic goal of constructing a demonstration reactor (DEMO) as the following step, appears achievable. Progress in physics was substantial during 1997. Analysis of the huge existing database, complemented by the latest results, had led to a better, more accurate scaling for the confinement time on which to base extrapolation to ITER. Studies of the very promising advanced regimes have been pursued on many tokamaks. The Frascati Tokamak Upgrade (FTU) is well placed in this respect since it is equipped with the right tools, lower hybrid and electron cyclotron radiofrequency heating and current drive systems, to explore the new promised land of low transport from the plasma core. The main highlights of FTU operation in 1997 were related to providing information relevant to these future developments. Transient production of low transport regimes with electron temperatures of 8-9 keV at the plasma center was obtained by taking advantage of the plasma skin effect and precise electron cyclotron power deposition. High-efficiency current drive at high density using lower hybrid waves was demonstrated. High-confinement pellet-enhanced modes of operation and good ion Bernstein wave coupling through the waveguide-type coupler were also achieved. Concerning the IGNITOR experiment, funds were made available only for continuation of the engineering design activities, and nothing has been released so far for manufacturing the additional

  9. Flow-like Features On Europa

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-01-01

    This image shows features on Jupiter's moon Europa that may be 'flows' from ice volcanoes. It was taken by the Galileo spacecraft solid state imaging (CCD) system during its seventh orbit around Jupiter. North is to the top of the image. The sun illuminates the scene from the left, showing features with shapes similar to lava flows on Earth. Two such features can be seen in the northwest corner of the image. The southern feature appears to have flowed over a ridge along its western edge. Scientists use these types of relationships to determine which feature formed first. In this case, the ridge probably formed before the flow-like feature that covers it.The image, centered at 22.6 degrees north latitude and 106.7 degrees west longitude, covers an area of 180 by 215 kilometers (112 by 134 miles). The smallest distinguishable features in the image are about 1.1 kilometers (0.7 miles) across. This image was obtained on April 28, 1997, when Galileo was 27,590 kilometers (16,830 miles) from Europa.The Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA manages the Galileo mission for NASA's Office of Space Science, Washington, DC. JPL is an operating division of California Institute of Technology (Caltech).This image and other images and data received from Galileo are posted on the World Wide Web, on the Galileo mission home page at URL http://galileo.jpl.nasa.gov. Background information and educational context for the images can be found at URL http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/galileo/sepo

  10. Growth and Structural Transformation in Viet Nam during the 2000s

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thu Hoai, Dang Thi; Tarp, Finn; van Seventer, Dirk

    the period 2000–12, while moving from primary production (agriculture) towards more value adding manufacturing activities. This transformation has been broad-based and in large measure driven by external demand. We conclude that it will be challenging to sustain growth without bold moves in technological......We study structural transformation and change in the Vietnamese economy using two Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs), one for the year 2000 and a recently compiled SAM for the year 2012. This period is of particular interest as it features an important shift in terms of more economic integration...

  11. Changes in atmospheric rivers and moisture transport over the Northeast Pacific and western North America in response to ENSO diversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hye-Mi; Zhou, Yang; Alexander, Michael A.

    2017-03-01

    The year-to-year changes in atmospheric rivers (ARs) and moisture transport over the northeast Pacific and western North America are investigated during December to February (DJF) from 1979/80 to 2015/16. Changes in AR frequency, intensity, and landfall characteristics are compared between three ENSO phases: central Pacific El Niño (CPEN), eastern Pacific El Niño (EPEN), and La Niña (NINA). During EPEN events, the subtropical jet extends to the south and east with an anomalous cyclonic flow around a deeper Aleutian Low. More moisture is transported towards North America and AR frequency is increased over western North America. In CPEN events, the Aleutian low shifts further southward relative to its position in EPEN, resulting in an increase in the frequency and intensity of landfalling ARs over the southwestern US. In NINA events, the landfalling AR frequency is reduced associated with anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the eastern North Pacific. We diagnose the contribution of multiple factors to the seasonal mean moisture transport using moisture budgets. During the three ENSO phases, the change in low-frequency circulation (dynamical process) is the leading contributor to the seasonal mean moisture flux divergence, while the contributions of the synoptic anomalies and the change in moisture anomaly (thermodynamic process) are not significant along the west coast of North America.

  12. Savannah River Site Environmental Report for 1997 Summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnett, M.

    1998-01-01

    The Savannah River Site (SRS) publishes an environmental report each year to provide environmental monitoring and surveillance results to the U. S. Department of Energy (DOE), the public, Congress, state and federal regulators, universities, local governments, the news media, and environmental and civic groups. The Savannah River Site Environmental Report for 1997 (WSRC-TR-97-00322) contains detailed information on site operations, environmental monitoring and surveillance programs, environmental compliance activities, and special projects for the calendar year 1997. The purpose of this documents is to give a brief overview of the site and its activities, to summarize the site environmental report and the impact of 1997 SRS operations on the environment and the public, and to provide a brief explanation of radiation and dose.The data used to compile the annual environmental report and this summary can be found in Savannah River Site Environmental Data for 1997 (WSRC-TR-97-00324)

  13. Síndrome pulmonar por hantavirus en población infantil. Chile: Regiones IX y X. 1998-2000

    OpenAIRE

    SOZA C., GUILLERMO; LORCA O., PEDRO; PUEBLA M., SERGIO; WENZEL M., MARISOL; NAVARRETE C., MARITZA; VILLAGRA C., ELIECER; MORA R., JUDITH; LEVIS C., SILVANA; AVILES A., GABRIELA

    2000-01-01

    El síndrome pulmonar por hantavirus (SPH) ha estado presente en Chile desde 1993 y ha sido detectado desde 1997 en la IX Región. Es una grave zoonosis con alta mortalidad, que afecta a gente joven incluyendo niños. Se ha estimado oportuno dar a conocer nuestra experiencia en la atención de 6 pacientes pediátricos, atendidos en las unidades de Cuidados Intensivos y Aislamiento en el Hospital Regional de Temuco, entre enero de 1998 y enero de 2000 mediante un estudio descriptivo de la experienc...

  14. Health Reform in Mexico City, 2000-2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asa Cristina Laurell

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available With the goal of fully guaranteeing the constitutional right to health protection, Mexico City’s leftist administration (2000-2006 undertook a reform to provide health services to people without insurance. The reform had four components: free medicine and health services; the introduction of a new service model (MAS; the strengthening, expansion, and improvement of services, and legislation to ensure that the city government become guarantor of this constitutional right. The reform resulted in 95% of eligible families being enrolled in free care; expansion of health care infrastructure with the construction of five new health care centers and a 1/3 increase in the number of public hospital beds in impoverished and disadvantaged areas; increased access to and use of health services particularly by the poor and for expensive interventions; and the legal guarantee of the continuity of this policy. The implementation of this new policy was made possible through an 80% budget increase, improvements in efficiency, and a successful fight against corruption. The health impact of the reform was seen in decline of mortality rates in all age groups between 1997 and 2005 (22% for child mortality, 11% for economically active age groups, and 7.9% for retired age groups and by a 16% decline in AIDS related mortality between 2000 and 2005. This reform contrasts with the health care reform promoted by the right wing Federal government in the rest of the country; the latter was based on voluntary health insurance, cost-sharing by families, access to a limited package of services, and gradual enrollment of the population

  15. 1997 annual report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1999-12-31

    This reports presents the activities and accomplishments of Philippine Nuclear Research Institute (PNRI) for the calendar year 1997. The highlights of the accomplishment is about the nuclear and allied services, research development, nuclear safety and regulations, and the general administration and linkages. Also, the opening of atomic energy week as the special S and T events

  16. 1997 annual report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-01-01

    This reports presents the activities and accomplishments of Philippine Nuclear Research Institute (PNRI) for the calendar year 1997. The highlights of the accomplishment is about the nuclear and allied services, research development, nuclear safety and regulations, and the general administration and linkages. Also, the opening of atomic energy week as the special S and T events

  17. Evolución de los niveles de inmisión de contaminación atmosférica en una ciudad industrial (Alcoy desde 1989 a 2000 Evolution of the emission levels of atmospheric pollution in an industrial city (Alcoy, Spain from 1989 to 2000

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Carratalá Giménez

    2002-06-01

    Full Text Available Este trabajo presenta la evolución de los niveles de contaminantes atmosféricos medidos en la ciudad de Alcoy en las estaciones de la red manual (SO2 y Humos negros desde el año 1989 al año 2000 y de las estaciones de la red automática (SO2, NO2 y partículas en suspensión totales desde el año 1995 al año 2000. El análisis de las series de datos permiten detectar el paralelismo de los dos sistemas de medida y la mejora de la calidad del aire, acusado descenso de los niveles de SO2 y humos negros, registrada por el cambio de combustible a gas natural a partir de 1997. Así mismo, el análisis de los patrones de evolución diaria en las series de las estaciones automáticas junto con las características topográficas permiten interpretar las variaciones de las diferencias espaciales encontradas.This work presents the evolution of the levels of atmospheric contaminants measured in the city of Alcoy (Spain in the stations of the manual network (SO2 and Black smokes from the year 1989 till 2000; as well as in the stations of the automatic network (SO2, NO2 and suspended particles between the years 1995 and 2000. The analysis of these data series allow to detect the parallel existing between the two measuring systems and the improvement of the air quality: a significant decrease in the levels of SO2 and Black smokes coinciding with the change from Diesel to natural gas in the heating systems of the region in 1997. At the same time, the analysis of the patterns of daily evolution in the series obtained in the automatic network, together with the topographic characteristics, has allowed to interpret the spatial variations found.

  18. Evolución de las desigualdades según la clase social en el control del embarazo en Barcelona (1994-97 frente a 2000-03 Trends in social inequalities in pregnancy care in Barcelona (Spain, 1994-97 versus 2000-03

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angelina Roig

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available Objetivo: Describir y comparar las desigualdades según la clase social en el control del embarazo en Barcelona durante 2 períodos. Métodos: Se comparan 2 cuatrienios: 1994-1997 y 2000-2003. La población de estudio son las gestantes de Barcelona y la muestra los controles del Registro de Defectos Congénitos de Barcelona (n = 905 en 1994-1997; n = 927 en 2000-2003. Las fuentes de información son las historias hospitalarias y una encuesta realizada a las madres. Las variables dependientes son: planificación del embarazo, ingesta de ácido fólico antes del embarazo, consumo de tabaco, número de visitas al obstetra, trimestre de primera visita, número de ecografías, ecografía del quinto mes, prueba invasiva y abandono del tabaco. Las variables independientes son la edad y la clase social. Se ajustaron modelos de regresión logística para cada variable dependiente según la clase social y se compararon los resultados entre cuatrienios. Resultados: Tanto las gestantes de clases de ocupación manual como las de no manual presentan mejorías en el segundo cuatrienio en 7 de los 10 indicadores (no son exactamente los mismos en ambas clases. Sin embargo, cuando comparamos las variaciones interclase entre los 2 cuatrienios se registran diferencias en 8 de los 10 indicadores, 7 a favor de las clases más favorecidas y uno a favor de las menos favorecidas. Conclusiones: Excepto para una de las situaciones analizadas (hacer más de 3 ecografías, las clases menos favorecidas presentan peores resultados que las más favorecidas al comparar la tendencia de los indicadores entre los 2 períodos. La distancia entre clases en el ámbito del control de la gestación se acentúa con el tiempo.Objective: To describe and compare social inequalities in pregnancy care among pregnant women living in Barcelona (Spain in 2 periods. Methods: Two 4-year periods were compared: 1994-1997 and 2000-2003. The study population consisted of pregnant women living in

  19. The Absence of Remotely Triggered Seismicity in Japan from 1997 to 2002

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wakefield, R. H.; Brodsky, E. E.

    2003-12-01

    Observations of increased seismicity following the Landers, Hector Mine, Izmit, and the Denali, earthquakes suggests remote seismic triggering occurs in geothermal locations as far as 3150 km. This study attempts to determine if the same effects occur in Japan, a geothermal region of high seismicity. For the period of 1997 to 2002, we searched for significant increases in the seismicity levels following earthquakes with Mw >= 6.5 at distances larger than conventionally associated with aftershocks. Additionally, we examined available waveform data in order to detect uncataloged events hidden by the coda of the mainshock. Five events had associated waveform data: March 24, 2001 Geiyo, Mw = 6.8; March 28, 2000 Volcano Islands, Mw = 7.6; July 30, 2000 Honshu, Mw = 6.5; October 6, 2000 Tottori, Mw = 6.7; and the January 28, 1999 Kuril Islands, Mw = 6.8 earthquake. Located 260 km from the Geiyo epicenter, station TKO recorded one possible triggered event within 65 km during the hour following the mainshock. However, the TKO data contains many anomalous spikes, and we are not confident the record is clear enough to differentiate small local events from noise. An ambiguous, two-day, regional seismicity increase followed the Volcano Islands event. We interpret the swarm associated with the signal as coincidental because no similar swarms occurred at the same location following Tottori or Geiyo, both of which had an order of magnitude larger shaking. Both waveforms and cataloged events indicate no triggering occurred following the Honshu, Tottori and Kuril Islands mainshocks. We do not interpret the one indefinite local event recorded by TKO as evidence for mid range dynamic triggering, implying that the 2.5 cm/s shaking at TKO did not exceed the local triggering threshold. Additionally, the lack of triggering following Honshu, Tottori, and Kuril Islands suggests that the 1, 2.5 and 2.6 cm/s shaking at distances of 182, 238, and 267 km, respectively, creates lower bounds for

  20. Response of O2 and pH to ENSO in the California Current System in a high-resolution global climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turi, Giuliana; Alexander, Michael; Lovenduski, Nicole S.; Capotondi, Antonietta; Scott, James; Stock, Charles; Dunne, John; John, Jasmin; Jacox, Michael

    2018-02-01

    Coastal upwelling systems, such as the California Current System (CalCS), naturally experience a wide range of O2 concentrations and pH values due to the seasonality of upwelling. Nonetheless, changes in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have been shown to measurably affect the biogeochemical and physical properties of coastal upwelling regions. In this study, we use a novel, high-resolution global climate model (GFDL-ESM2.6) to investigate the influence of warm and cold ENSO events on variations in the O2 concentration and the pH of the CalCS coastal waters. An assessment of the CalCS response to six El Niño and seven La Niña events in ESM2.6 reveals significant variations in the response between events. However, these variations overlay a consistent physical and biogeochemical (O2 and pH) response in the composite mean. Focusing on the mean response, our results demonstrate that O2 and pH are affected rather differently in the euphotic zone above ˜ 100 m. The strongest O2 response reaches up to several hundreds of kilometers offshore, whereas the pH signal occurs only within a ˜ 100 km wide band along the coast. By splitting the changes in O2 and pH into individual physical and biogeochemical components that are affected by ENSO variability, we found that O2 variability in the surface ocean is primarily driven by changes in surface temperature that affect the O2 solubility. In contrast, surface pH changes are predominantly driven by changes in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), which in turn is affected by upwelling, explaining the confined nature of the pH signal close to the coast. Below ˜ 100 m, we find conditions with anomalously low O2 and pH, and by extension also anomalously low aragonite saturation, during La Niña. This result is consistent with findings from previous studies and highlights the stress that the CalCS ecosystem could periodically undergo in addition to impacts due to climate change.

  1. Framatome announces its 1997 results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-01-01

    This press dossier presents the 1997 financial year of Framatome group: turnover and key-numbers, results, sectoral analysis (nuclear engineering (nuclear realizations, fuels, services and equipments); connectors engineering (automotive, electrical, electronic, interconnection and microelectronic industries), industrial equipments). Then, the 1998 objectives are presented with the strategy of the group (Chinese, central and eastern Europe nuclear programs, French-German joint EPR project, services and nuclear fuels, connectors engineering, industrial equipments, manpower, research and development programs). This part is followed by a presentation of some 1997 events and by the text of the press conference from May 18, 1998 which presented the activities of the group, its competences and know-how in the nuclear domain. (J.S.)

  2. Annual Report 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Golnik, N.; Mika, J.R.; Wieteska, K. [eds.

    1998-12-31

    This Annual Report of the Institute of Atomic Energy describes the results of the research works carried out at the Institute at 1997. As in the preceding years the authors of the individual scientific reports published in this Annual Report are fully responsible for their content and layout. The Report contains the information on other activities of the Institute as well. (author)

  3. Annual Report 1997

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Golnik, N.; Mika, J.R.; Wieteska, K.

    1998-01-01

    This Annual Report of the Institute of Atomic Energy describes the results of the research works carried out at the Institute at 1997. As in the preceding years the authors of the individual scientific reports published in this Annual Report are fully responsible for their content and layout. The Report contains the information on other activities of the Institute as well. (author)

  4. Annual Report 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Golnik, N; Mika, J R; Wieteska, K [eds.

    1999-12-31

    This Annual Report of the Institute of Atomic Energy describes the results of the research works carried out at the Institute at 1997. As in the preceding years the authors of the individual scientific reports published in this Annual Report are fully responsible for their content and layout. The Report contains the information on other activities of the Institute as well. (author)

  5. The future of biogas in Europe 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holm-Nielsen, J B [ed.

    1997-08-01

    The European Waste to Energy network is part of the ALTENER Programme 1997. The prime objectives of the network are the development and dissemination of strategies for promotion, implementation and commercial exploration of opportunities in energy from waste and biomass resources. During 1997 special attention is paid to energy conversion from municipal solid waste, biogas production from animal manure and organic waste, and wood residuals for energy production. (au)

  6. Accountability report - fiscal year 1997

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-01-01

    This document contains the US NRC's accountability report for fiscal year 1997. Topics include uses of funds, financial condition, program performance, management accountability, and the audited financial statement

  7. Report of Activity - 1997

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hammer, Philippe

    1999-01-01

    The Report of Activity on 1997 published by Waste Management Division (Direction chargee de la Gestion des Dechets) of French Atomic Energy Authority (Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique) presents the current activity in the framework of CEA Recovery Plan for Civil Centers initiated in 1991, aiming at managing all the radioactive problems issued from its Research and Development Activities. This plan covers three principal directions: management of radioactive wastes resulting from CEA research activities, reprocessing or storing the spent or un-used fuel resulting from research or prototype reactors, recovery measures and dismantling of nuclear facilities. In the field of radioactive waste management important projects, assuring the waste processing equipment, were developed in 1997 at Saclay (STELLA Installation), Cadarache (AGATE Installation) and Marcoule (ATENA Installation). The Radioactive Waste Storage TFA was put into operation at Cadarache. In the field of out-of-use fuel, in 1997 the fuel reprocessing units CARAMEL and UNGG were finished while as temporary storage for fuels waiting to be processed the CASCAD facility at Cadarache was assigned. Finally, concerning the recovery/dismantling activities, priority was granted to recover: the Radiochemical Lab. at Fontenay, the pilot workshop and UP1 plant of COGEMA at Marcoule, the EL4 reactor (in a joint action with EDF), and the AT1 pilot workshop at Cherbourg. The report is structured on five chapters with the following content: 1. The radioactive wastes; 2. The out-of-use fuels; 3. The dismantling of the definitively stopped installations; 4. The waste management at DAM (Direction des Applications Militaires); 5. Recovery activities at Marcoule

  8. Snow cover dynamics in Andean watersheds of Chile (32.0-39.5° S) during the years 2000-2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stehr, Alejandra; Aguayo, Mauricio

    2017-10-01

    Andean watersheds present important snowfall accumulation mainly during the winter, which melts during the spring and part of the summer. The effect of snowmelt on the water balance can be critical to sustain agriculture activities, hydropower generation, urban water supplies and wildlife. In Chile, 25 % of the territory between the region of Valparaiso and Araucanía comprises areas where snow precipitation occurs. As in many other difficult-to-access regions of the world, there is a lack of hydrological data of the Chilean Andes related to discharge, snow courses, and snow depths, which complicates the analysis of important hydrological processes (e.g. water availability). Remote sensing provides a promising opportunity to enhance the assessment and monitoring of the spatial and temporal variability of snow characteristics, such as the snow cover area (SCA) and snow cover dynamic (SCD). With regards to the foregoing questions, the objective of the study is to evaluate the spatiotemporal dynamics of the SCA at five watersheds (Aconcagua, Rapel, Maule, Biobío and Toltén) located in the Chilean Andes, between latitude 32.0 and 39.5° S, and to analyse its relationship with the precipitation regime/pattern and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Those watersheds were chosen because of their importance in terms of their number of inhabitants, and economic activities depending on water resources. The SCA area was obtained from MOD10A2 for the period 2000-2016, and the SCD was analysed through a number of statistical tests to explore observed trends. In order to verify the SCA for trend analysis, a validation of the MOD10A2 product was done, consisting of the comparison of snow presence predicted by MODIS with ground observations. Results indicate that there is an overall agreement of 81 to 98 % between SCA determined from ground observations and MOD10A2, showing that the MODIS snow product can be taken as a feasible remote sensing tool for SCA estimation in

  9. Variations in the free chlorine content of the stratosphere (1991-1997): Anthropogenic, volcanic, and methane influences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Froidevaux, L.; Waters, J. W.; Read, W. G.; Connell, P. S.; Kinnison, D. E.; Russell, J. M. III

    2000-01-01

    Remote sensing of chlorine monoxide (ClO) by the Microwave Limb Sounder experiment aboard the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) has provided global measurements of variations in stratospheric free chlorine for 1991-1997. Linear trends were obtained from a multiple regression analysis of this data set at low latitudes and midlatitudes. ClO increases in the upper stratosphere (2 hPa) are significantly larger than expected from trends in chlorine source gases alone. Much of the upper stratospheric ClO variability can be explained by changes in CH 4 , as measured by the UARS Halogen Occultation Experiment. Decreasing ClO in the lower stratosphere is consistent with a relaxation from a chemically perturbed state attributed to the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption. (c) 2000 American Geophysical Union

  10. Southwestern Power Administration annual site environmental report CY 1997

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-01-01

    This report provides a synopsis of Southwestern Power Administration's (Southwestern's) effectiveness in managing its operations in an environmentally responsible manner. In CY 1997, the Office of Environmental, Safety, and Health was reorganized and incorporated into the Division of Acquisition and Property. The Division of Acquisition, Property, and Environmental Management maintains responsibility for development, oversight, and implementation of environmental programs. Senior Management at Southwestern has taken actions to increase environmental awareness throughout the organization. During CY 1997, (Southwestern) was not involved in any known programs or activities that had adverse impacts on the environment. The 1997 Environmental Appraisal, a portion of Southwestern's Self-Assessment and Appraisal Program, indicated approximately 90% compliance with Southwestern's written environmental programs. Southwestern continued to function throughout CY 1997 in an operations and maintenance posture with minor substation projects

  11. Nuclear Safety. 1997; Surete Nucleaire. 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-01-19

    A quick review of the nuclear safety at EDF may be summarized as follows: - the nuclear safety at EDF maintains at a rather good standard; - none of the incidents that took place has had any direct impact upon safety; - the availability remained good; - initiation of the floor 4 reactor generation (N4 unit - 1450 MW) ensued without major difficulties (the Civaux 1 NPP has been coupled to the power network at 24 december 1997); - the analysis of the incidents interesting from the safety point of view presents many similarities with earlier ones. Significant progress has been recorded in promoting actively and directly a safe operation by making visible, evident and concrete the exertion of the nuclear operation responsibility and its control by the hierarchy. The report develops the following chapters and subjects: 1. An overview on 1997; 1.1. The technical issues of the nuclear sector; 1.2. General performances in safety; 1.3. The main incidents; 1.4. Wastes and radiation protection; 2. Nuclear safety management; 2.1. Dynamics and results; 2.2. Ameliorations to be consolidated; 3. Other important issues in safety; 3.1. Probabilistic safety studies; 3.2. Approach for safety re-evaluation; 3.3. The network safety; 3.4. Crisis management; 3.5. The Lifetime program; 3.6. PWR; 3.7. Documentation; 3.8. Competence; 4. Safety management in the future; 4.1. An open future; 4.2. The fast neutron NPP at Creys-Malville; 4.3. Stabilization of the PWR reference frame; 4.4. Implementing the EURATOM directive regarding the radiation protection standards; 4.5. Development of biomedical research and epidemiological studies; 4.6. New regulations concerning the liquid and gaseous effluents; 5. Visions of an open future; 5.1. Alternative views upon safety ay EDF; 5.2. Safety authority; 5.3. International considerations; 5.4. What happens abroad; 5.5. References from non-nuclear domain. Four appendices are added referring to policy of safety management, policy of human factors in NPPs

  12. The leading mode of observed and CMIP5 ENSO-residual sea surface temperatures and associated changes in Indo-Pacific climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Christopher C.; Hoell. Andrew,

    2015-01-01

    SSTs in the western Pacific Ocean have tracked closely with CMIP5 simulations despite recent hiatus cooling in the eastern Pacific. This paper quantifies these similarities and associated circulation and precipitation variations using the first global 1900–2012 ENSO-residual empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of 35 variables: observed SSTs; 28 CMIP5 SST simulations; Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) 25-, 70-, and 171-m ocean temperatures and sea surface heights (SSHs); and Twentieth Century Reanalysis, version 2 (20CRv2), surface winds and precipitation.

  13. Houston Pre-Freshman Enrichment Program (Houston PREP). Final report, June 9, 1997--July 25, 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-10-01

    The 1997 Houston Pre-Freshman Enrichment Program (PREP) was conducted at the campus of the University of Houston-Downtown from June 9 to July 25, 1997. Program participants were recruited from the Greater Houston Area. All participants were identified as high-achieving students with an interest in learning about the engineering and science professions. The goal of the program was to better prepare our pre-college youth prior to entering college as mathematics, science and engineering majors. The program participants were middle school and high school students from the Aldine, Alief, Channel View, Clear Creek, Cypress-Fairbanks, Fort Bend, Galena Park, Houston, Humble, Katy, Klein, North Forest, Pasadena, Private, and Spring Branch Independent School Districts. Of the 194 students starting the program, 165 students were from economically and socially disadvantage groups under-represented in the engineering and science professions, and 118 of the 194 were women. Our First Year group for 1997 composed of 96% minority and women students. Second and Third Year students combined were 96% minority or women. With financial support from the Center for Computational Sciences and Advanced Distributed Simulation, the Fourth Year Program was added to PREP this year. Twelve students completed the program (83% minority or women).

  14. Accountability report - fiscal year 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-04-01

    This document contains the US NRC`s accountability report for fiscal year 1997. Topics include uses of funds, financial condition, program performance, management accountability, and the audited financial statement.

  15. ANALISIS SITIRAN JURNAL PSIKOLOGI UGM TAHUN 1997-2006 Citation Analysis of Gadjah Mada University Psychology Journal dating from 1997 to 2006.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pergola Irianti

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The study aims: (1 to discover the foreign journal referred by the Gadjah Mada University Psychology Journal dating from 1997 to 2006, (2 to know the percentage of use of the subscribed foreign journal by the Faculty Library of Psychology, Gadjah Mada University founded in Gadjah Mada University Psychology Journal from 1997 to 2006, (3 to know the relevancy and use of foreign journal by the scientific article in the Gadjah Mada University Psychology Journal dating from 1997 to 2006, (4 to know the currency of the foreign journal referred by Gadjah Mada University Psychology Journal dating from 1997 to 2006. The study is a descriptive research with the Gadjah Mada University Psychology Journal by 1997-2006 as a subject, and the foreign journals referred in Gadjah Mada University Psychology Journal by 1997-2006 as an object. Documentation, and interview are used as methods of collecting data, and citation analysis as an data analysis. The result of study: (1 There are 148 titles offoreign journal cited in Gadjah Mada University Journal of Psychology dating from 1997-2006, including 14 titles of the journal subscribed by Faculty Library of Gadjah Mada University, (2 The freguence of the citation of the 14 titles was that: Journal of Personality and Social Psychology by 68 times (39,76%, Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology by 23 (13,45%, Journal of Applied Psychology by 21 (12,28%, Psychological Bulletin by 11 (6,43%, Journal of Abnormal Psychology and Journal of Counseling Psychology by 9 respectively ( 5,26%, Journal of Educational Psychology by 8 (4,67%, Developmental Psychology by 7 (4,09%, Journal of Occupational Psychology by 5 (2,92%, Journal of Cross Cultural Psychology and Psychological Review by 3 respectively (1,75%, Journal of Experimental Psychology by 2 (1,16%, American Psychologist and Health Psychology by 1 each (0,58%. (3 There are also a relevancy between the scientific article and the foreign journal referred, in the

  16. Portsmouth annual environmental report for 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-09-01

    The Portsmouth plant is one of two US Department of Energy (DOE)-owned, contractor-managed uranium enrichment facilities in operation. As of July 1, 1993, responsibility for implementing environmental compliance at the facility was split between DOE, as site owner, and the US Enrichment Corporation (USEC), a government-owned corporation formed by the Energy Policy Act of 1992, to operate the nation`s uranium enrichment business. The management contractor for DOE in 1997 was Lockheed Martin Energy Systems, which was responsible for environmental restoration, waste management, removal of highly enriched uranium, and operation of nonleased facilities at the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant (DOE/PORTS). A new 5 1/2-year management and integration contract was awarded by DOE to Bechtel Jacobs Company LLC on December 18, 1997. Bechtel Jacobs Company officially assumed management responsibilities on April 1, 1998, when the Lockheed Martin Energy Systems contract expired. Lockheed Martin Utility Services provides management services for USEC. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission assumed direct oversight of USEC operations, formerly a DOE function, in March 1997.

  17. Portsmouth annual environmental report for 1997

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-09-01

    The Portsmouth plant is one of two US Department of Energy (DOE)-owned, contractor-managed uranium enrichment facilities in operation. As of July 1, 1993, responsibility for implementing environmental compliance at the facility was split between DOE, as site owner, and the US Enrichment Corporation (USEC), a government-owned corporation formed by the Energy Policy Act of 1992, to operate the nation's uranium enrichment business. The management contractor for DOE in 1997 was Lockheed Martin Energy Systems, which was responsible for environmental restoration, waste management, removal of highly enriched uranium, and operation of nonleased facilities at the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant (DOE/PORTS). A new 5 1/2-year management and integration contract was awarded by DOE to Bechtel Jacobs Company LLC on December 18, 1997. Bechtel Jacobs Company officially assumed management responsibilities on April 1, 1998, when the Lockheed Martin Energy Systems contract expired. Lockheed Martin Utility Services provides management services for USEC. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission assumed direct oversight of USEC operations, formerly a DOE function, in March 1997

  18. Summaries of FY 1997 engineering research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-09-01

    This report documents the Basic Energy Sciences (BES) Engineering Research Program for fiscal year 1997, it provides a summary for each of the program projects in addition to a brief program overview. The report is intended to provide staff of Congressional committees, other executive departments, and other DOE offices with substantive program information so as to facilitate governmental overview and coordination of Federal research programs. Of equal importance, its availability facilitates communication of program information to interested research engineers and scientists. The individual project summaries follow the program overview. The summaries are ordered alphabetically by name of institution; the table of contents lists all the institutions at which projects were sponsored in fiscal year 1997. Each project entry begins with an institutional-departmental heading. The names of investigators are listed immediately below the title. The funding level for fiscal year 1997 appears to the right of address. The summary description of the project completes the entry. A separate index of Principal Investigators includes phone number, fax number and e-main address, where available.

  19. How has alcohol advertising in traditional and online media in Australia changed? Trends in advertising expenditure 1997-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Victoria; Faulkner, Agatha; Coomber, Kerri; Azar, Denise; Room, Robin; Livingston, Michael; Chikritzhs, Tanya; Wakefield, Melanie

    2015-06-19

    The aim of this study was to determine changes in advertising expenditures across eight media channels for the four main alcohol beverage types and alcohol retailers in Australia. Yearly advertising expenditures between January 1997 and December 2011 obtained from a leading media-monitoring company. Media channels assessed were: free-to-air television, newspapers, magazines, radio, outdoors (billboards), cinema, direct mail (from 2005) and online (from 2008). Data were categorised into alcohol retailers (e.g. supermarkets, off-licences) or four alcoholic beverage types (beer, wine, spirits, premixed spirits/cider). Regression analyses examined associations between year and expenditure. Total alcohol advertising expenditure peaked in 2007, then declined to 2011 (P = 0.02). Television advertising expenditure declined between 2000 and 2011 (P advertising expenditure increased between 1997 and 2007. Alcohol retailers' advertising expenditure increased over time (P advertising expenditure declined over time (beer: P advertising expenditure increased (beer: P advertised beer (P advertising alcohol. As our study excluded non-traditional advertising media (e.g. sponsorships, in-store) we cannot determine whether declines in television advertising have been offset by increases in advertising in newer media channels. However, our findings that media channels used for alcohol advertising have changed over time highlights the need for adequate controls on alcohol advertising in all media channels. [White V, Faulkner A, Coomber K, Azar D, Room R, Livingston M, Chikritzhs T, Wakefield M. How has alcohol advertising in traditional and online media in Australia changed? Trends in advertising expenditure 1997-2011. Drug Alcohol Rev 2015]. © 2015 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

  20. Efficient JPEG 2000 Image Compression Scheme for Multihop Wireless Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Halim Sghaier

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available When using wireless sensor networks for real-time data transmission, some critical points should be considered. Restricted computational power, reduced memory, narrow bandwidth and energy supplied present strong limits in sensor nodes. Therefore, maximizing network lifetime and minimizing energy consumption are always optimization goals. To overcome the computation and energy limitation of individual sensor nodes during image transmission, an energy efficient image transport scheme is proposed, taking advantage of JPEG2000 still image compression standard using MATLAB and C from Jasper. JPEG2000 provides a practical set of features, not necessarily available in the previous standards. These features were achieved using techniques: the discrete wavelet transform (DWT, and embedded block coding with optimized truncation (EBCOT. Performance of the proposed image transport scheme is investigated with respect to image quality and energy consumption. Simulation results are presented and show that the proposed scheme optimizes network lifetime and reduces significantly the amount of required memory by analyzing the functional influence of each parameter of this distributed image compression algorithm.

  1. Atomic energy in Lithuania: Nuclear safety in 1997

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kutas, S.; Krenevichius, R.; Chiuchelis, R.; Demchenko, M.

    1998-01-01

    Annual report of VATESI - Lithuanian Nuclear Safety Authority's activity in 1997 is presented. According to the prescribed responsibilities by the Law on Nuclear Energy and by the statute, VATESI's main fields of activities in 1997 were evaluation of the safety of Ignalina NPP, supervision of Ignalina NPP's operational safety, control of the implementation of safety improvement program SIP-2 in Ignalina NPP, preparation for the licensing of the unit No.1 of Ignalina NPP, accountancy and control of nuclear materials, regulation of radioactive waste management. Detailed description of all these activities is provided in the report. Important role of international assistance and cooperation is emphasized also. Year 1997 was safe for the operation of Ignalina NPP: there were no safety significant events according to the INES scale, only three events received qualification as level 1 events. In 1997 there was completed SAR of Ignalina NPP, its review report RSR and those were presented to the authorities. Taking into account all recommendations of SAR and RSR a new safety improvement program SIP-2 was made and started implemented

  2. 1997 Savannah River Site annual epidemiologic surveillance report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2000-06-01

    This report provides a summary of epidemiologic surveillance data collected from Savannah River Site from January 1, 1997 through December 31, 1997. The data were collected by a coordinator at Savannah River Site and submitted to the Epidemiologic Surveillance Data Center located at Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education, where quality control procedures and preliminary data analyses were carried out. The analyses were interpreted and the final report prepared by the DOE Office of Epidemiologic Studies. The information in this report provides highlights of the data analyses conducted on the 1997 data collected from Savannah River Site. The main sections of the report include: work force characteristics; absences due to injury or illness lasting 5 or more consecutive workdays; workplace illnesses, injuries, and deaths that were reportable to the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (''OSHA-recordable'' events); and disabilities and deaths among current workers. The 199 7 report includes a section on time trends that provides comparative information on the health of the work force from 1994 through 1997.

  3. Nonlinear response of tropical lower-stratospheric temperature and water vapor to ENSO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. I. Garfinkel

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available A series of simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry–Climate Model are analyzed in order to aid in the interpretation of observed interannual and sub-decadal variability in the tropical lower stratosphere over the past 35 years. The impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on temperature and water vapor in this region is nonlinear in boreal spring. While moderate El Niño events lead to cooling in this region, strong El Niño events lead to warming, even as the response of the large-scale Brewer–Dobson circulation appears to scale nearly linearly with El Niño. This nonlinearity is shown to arise from the response in the Indo-West Pacific to El Niño: strong El Niño events lead to tropospheric warming extending into the tropical tropopause layer and up to the cold point in this region, where it allows for more water vapor to enter the stratosphere. The net effect is that both strong La Niña and strong El Niño events lead to enhanced entry water vapor and stratospheric moistening in boreal spring and early summer. These results lead to the following interpretation of the contribution of sea surface temperatures to the decline in water vapor in the early 2000s: the very strong El Niño event in 1997/1998, followed by more than 2 consecutive years of La Niña, led to enhanced lower-stratospheric water vapor. As this period ended in early 2001, entry water vapor concentrations declined. This effect accounts for approximately one-quarter of the observed drop.

  4. Nonlinear response of tropical lower-stratospheric temperature and water vapor to ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garfinkel, Chaim I.; Gordon, Amit; Oman, Luke D.; Li, Feng; Davis, Sean; Pawson, Steven

    2018-04-01

    A series of simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model are analyzed in order to aid in the interpretation of observed interannual and sub-decadal variability in the tropical lower stratosphere over the past 35 years. The impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on temperature and water vapor in this region is nonlinear in boreal spring. While moderate El Niño events lead to cooling in this region, strong El Niño events lead to warming, even as the response of the large-scale Brewer-Dobson circulation appears to scale nearly linearly with El Niño. This nonlinearity is shown to arise from the response in the Indo-West Pacific to El Niño: strong El Niño events lead to tropospheric warming extending into the tropical tropopause layer and up to the cold point in this region, where it allows for more water vapor to enter the stratosphere. The net effect is that both strong La Niña and strong El Niño events lead to enhanced entry water vapor and stratospheric moistening in boreal spring and early summer. These results lead to the following interpretation of the contribution of sea surface temperatures to the decline in water vapor in the early 2000s: the very strong El Niño event in 1997/1998, followed by more than 2 consecutive years of La Niña, led to enhanced lower-stratospheric water vapor. As this period ended in early 2001, entry water vapor concentrations declined. This effect accounts for approximately one-quarter of the observed drop.

  5. 2000 Annual report: synthesis; 2000 Resenia de actividades

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-07-01

    This synthesis of the Annual Report 2000 present information of the main activities on the scope of the radiation protection and nuclear safety of the Nuclear Regulatory Authority (NRA) of the Argentina during 2000.

  6. Lundby revisited: first incidence of mental disorders 1947-1997

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bogren, Mats; Mattisson, Cecilia; Horstmann, Vibeke

    2007-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate how first incidence of various mental disorders changed between the periods of 1947-1972 to 1972-1997 in the Lundby cohort. METHOD: First-incidence rates of mental disorders were calculated for two 25 year periods and ten 5 year periods. RESULTS: From 1947-1972 to 1972......-1997 a decrease in almost all age- and sex-specific incidences of neurotic and organic brain disorders was observed, whereas incidence rates of psychotic disorders increased consistently in male subjects but decreased in most age intervals in female subjects. For both sexes the age-standardized 5 year period...... incidences of neurotic disorders decreased after 1972, fluctuated for psychotic disorders 1947-1997 and decreased steadily for organic disorders 1947-1997. CONCLUSIONS: The reduction in neurotic and organic brain disorder incidences may be linked to structural changes in society and medical advances...

  7. Petroleum supply annual, 1997. Volume 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-06-01

    The Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA) contains information on the supply and disposition of crude oil and petroleum products. The publication reflects data that were collected from the petroleum industry during 1997 through annual and monthly surveys. The PSA is divided into two volumes. This first volume contains three sections: Summary Statistics, Detailed Statistics, and Refinery Statistics; each with final annual data. The second volume contains final statistics for each month of 1997, and replaces data previously published in the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM). The tables in Volumes 1 and 2 are similarly numbered to facilitate comparison between them. 16 figs., 48 tabs.

  8. Petroleum supply annual, 1997. Volume 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-06-01

    The Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA) contains information on the supply and disposition of crude oil and petroleum products. The publication reflects data that were collected from the petroleum industry during 1997 through annual and monthly surveys. The PSA is divided into two volumes. This first volume contains three sections: Summary Statistics, Detailed Statistics, and Refinery Statistics; each with final annual data. The second volume contains final statistics for each month of 1997, and replaces data previously published in the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM). The tables in Volumes 1 and 2 are similarly numbered to facilitate comparison between them. 16 figs., 48 tabs

  9. Annual report 2000; Rapport annuel 2000

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2002-07-01

    This report presents the activities of the Cogema group, its reports on management and its financial situation for the year 2000: presentation of TOPCO, boards of directors, profile, main consolidated data, year 2000 highlights, group activities (mining-chemistry, enrichment, reprocessing-recycling, engineering, services, sustainable development, health and safety, quality policy, human resources, R and D, communication), organization chart of the consolidated Cogema group, financial statements, directory. (J.S.)

  10. [Tuberculosis control in the Central Health Region of Catalonia during the period 1986-2000].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miret Cuadras, P; Pina Gutiérrez, J M; López Sanmartín, J L; Sala Farré, M R

    2003-10-01

    To assess tuberculosis control in the Central Health Region, Catalonia, Spain, from the implementation of the area's Tuberculosis Control Program in 1986 until the year 2000. To study the epidemiological profile of tuberculosis and the outcome of the following control measures in sputum smear-positive patients: final outcome of treatment and monitoring, and the percentage of patients for whom a contact investigation (CI) was carried out. Tuberculosis control is considered effective if the sum of noncompliant patients, plus the cases in which treatment failed, plus the patients transferred out remains below 10% of the cohort of patients studied, and if a CI has been conducted in at least 80% of this cohort. The number of cases reported was 6326, of which 7% were retreatments. A total of 5865 new cases was detected. Of these, 5652 (96%) were patients born in Spain. The number of cases reported annually peaked in 1990 (474) and then declined continuously until 2000, when it was 54% lower (220). Foreign-born patients numbered 213 (4%), and 95% of them came from countries with a high prevalence of tuberculosis. In the cohort of patients studied between 1997 and 2000, the sum of noncompliant patients, plus cases in which treatment failed, plus the patients transferred out came to 11%. Since 1994, a CI has been carried out for over 80% of patients, and this figure reached 92% in 2000. We consider that a substantial degree of tuberculosis control has been achieved given the decline in tuberculosis morbidity among people born in Spain, the fact that the percentage of noncompliant patients, treatment failures and transfers was only slightly over 10%, and that a CI has been conducted for over 80% of patients since 1994 (92% in 2000).

  11. Resultaten meetprogramma drinkwater 1997

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonker N; Breebaart L; Velde EG van der; Ritsema R; Hogendoorn EA; Versteegh JFM; LWD

    1998-01-01

    Sampling results within the 1997 programme were obtained for several non-routine parameters: boron, molybdenum and a number of phthalates. An attempt was made as well to develop a method for determining the presence of polar pesticides in water. In this overview showing the sampling results of the

  12. ELETRONUCLEAR - Annual report - 1997

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-01-01

    The annual activities report of 1997 of ELETRONUCLEAR - Brazilian company responsible by the electric power generation from the nuclear technology - introduces the next main topics: company vision and mission; energy production and commercialization; investments in the electric power generation; economic and financial situation; social balancing; and patrimonial balancing

  13. Monthly energy review, May 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-05-01

    This is an overview of the May energy statistics by the Energy Information Administration. The contents of the report include an energy overview, US energy production, trade stocks and prices for petroleum, natural gas, oil and gas resource development, coal, electricity, nuclear energy, energy prices, and international energy. Energy production during February 1997 totaled 5.4 quadrillion Btu, a 1.9% decrease from the level of production during February 1996. Coal production increased 1.2%, natural gas production decreased 2.9%, and production of crude oil and natural gas plant liquids decreased 2.1%. All other forms of energy production combined were down 6.3% from the level of production during February 1996. Energy consumption during February 1997 totaled 7.5 quadrillion Btu, 4.0% below the level of consumption during February 1996. Consumption of petroleum products decreased 4.4%, consumption of natural gas was down 3.5%, and consumption of coal fell 2.2%. Consumption of all other forms of energy combined decreased 6.7% from the level 1 year earlier. Net imports of energy during February 1997 totaled 1.5 quadrillion Btu, 14.1% above the level of net imports 1 year earlier. Net imports of petroleum increased 12.7% and net imports of natural gas were up 7.4%. Net exports of coal fell 12.1% from the level in February 1996. 37 figs., 75 tabs.

  14. Petro-Canada 1997 annual report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-01-01

    Petro-Canada is a dominant player in the petroleum industry in Western Canada as well as on the Grand Banks offshore Newfoundland. This report presents a review of operations, provides detailed statements of the corporation's finances, and a wealth of information of interest to shareholders. The report states that in 1997 Petro-Canada achieved record financial results, following a dramatic turnaround over the past five years. Net earnings for 1997 were $306 million, a $59 million increase over 1996. The company's share price appreciated 34 per cent in 1997 and was one of the most heavily traded stocks in Canada. The company plans to maximize shareholder value by reducing its interests in conventional oil from mature fields in western Canada and by re-investing the proceeds in natural gas development. Petro-Canada is also committed to an expansion that will double production at the Syncrude oil sands plant over the next decade and has tested large in-situ oil sands resources for potential development in northeastern Alberta. On the Atlantic coast too, Petro-Canada is delivering leadership with increasing production from Hibernia, and final approvals in place to proceed with development of the Terra Nova field. International operations are also contributing to the Corporation's profitability by delivering new production from oil fields offshore Norway and from the Sahara Desert in North Africa. tabs., figs

  15. Energy Balance of the Sao Paulo State -1998 Base year 1997

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-01-01

    This energy balance of the Sao Paulo State presents the following main topics that can be outstanding: panorama of the energy matrix; supply and demand of energy by source 1983-1997; energy consumption by sector 1983/1997; economic aspects; resources and reserves energy; and balance of the transformation centers 1983/1997

  16. Progress report 1996 - 1997; Rapport d'activite 1996 - 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-07-01

    This report reviews the activities of the laboratory for the years 1996 and 1997. Laboratory's activities are driven by an important international program on particle physics and astro-particles. 9 topics are presented: 1) physics at LHC: the ATLAS experiment, 2) the search for a new physics at LEP : DELPHI experiment, 3) neutrino oscillations: NOMAD and TONIC experiments, 4) the experiments H1 at HERA, 5) CP breaking: BABAR experiment, 6) DO experiment at the Tevatron, 7) gamma radiation sources: CAT experiment, 8) supernova, and 9) the project of the AUGER observatory.

  17. Labor report 1997-1998; Informe de labores 1997-1998

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-12-01

    In agreement with the disposition in the 93 rd Article of the Mexican United States Constitution Policy, the National Institute for Nuclear Research, which is directed as decentralized public organization of the Federal Government presents its labor report corresponding to the period 1997-1998. The Institution purpose is to perform research and development in the nuclear sciences and technology fields, as well as to promote the peaceful uses of the nuclear energy and divulging the advances reached for entailing them to the economic, social, scientific and technological development of the country. (Author)

  18. The language of Evaluation: paralinguistic features as a phonological domain for appraisal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Griselda Bombelli

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we explore the relationship between the language of evaluation and the use of paralinguistic features in reading aloud, relating Eggins & Slade's (1997 categories of appraisal with Brown's (1990 taxonomy of paralinguistic features. We mainly concentrate on two categories of appraisal: (1 affect, that is the expression of emotional states, and (2 amplification, that is the reader's aloud grading of attitudes and emotions. We present an analysis of part of The Story of Tilly, a story for children beautifully read aloud by Jackie Torrence. It seems to us that this association between paralinguistic features and appraisal may constitute a phonological domain for the description of the language of evaluation beyond the lexico-grammatical level.

  19. 1997 Sacramento Inland Floodplain Lidar

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set includes data collected in October 1997 over the Sacramento, CA, floodplain. Laser mapping uses a pulsed laser ranging system mounted onboard an...

  20. Novel clinical features of nonconvulsive status epilepticus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagayama, Masao; Yang, Sunghoon; Geocadin, Romergryko G.; Kaplan, Peter W.; Hoshiyama, Eisei; Shiromaru-Sugimoto, Azusa; Kawamura, Mitsuru

    2017-01-01

    Nonconvulsive status epilepticus (NCSE) has rapidly expanded from classical features such as staring, repetitive blinking, chewing, swallowing, and automatism to include coma, prolonged apnea, cardiac arrest, dementia, and higher brain dysfunction, which were demonstrated mainly after the 2000s by us and other groups. This review details novel clinical features of NCSE as a manifestation of epilepsy, but one that is underdiagnosed, with the best available evidence. Also, we describe the new concept of epilepsy-related organ dysfunction (Epi-ROD) and a novel electrode and headset which enables prompt electroencephalography. PMID:28979770