WorldWideScience

Sample records for faulty flood statistics

  1. Statistical analysis of the uncertainty related to flood hazard appraisal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Notaro, Vincenza; Freni, Gabriele

    2015-12-01

    The estimation of flood hazard frequency statistics for an urban catchment is of great interest in practice. It provides the evaluation of potential flood risk and related damage and supports decision making for flood risk management. Flood risk is usually defined as function of the probability, that a system deficiency can cause flooding (hazard), and the expected damage, due to the flooding magnitude (damage), taking into account both the exposure and the vulnerability of the goods at risk. The expected flood damage can be evaluated by an a priori estimation of potential damage caused by flooding or by interpolating real damage data. With regard to flood hazard appraisal several procedures propose to identify some hazard indicator (HI) such as flood depth or the combination of flood depth and velocity and to assess the flood hazard corresponding to the analyzed area comparing the HI variables with user-defined threshold values or curves (penalty curves or matrixes). However, flooding data are usually unavailable or piecemeal allowing for carrying out a reliable flood hazard analysis, therefore hazard analysis is often performed by means of mathematical simulations aimed at evaluating water levels and flow velocities over catchment surface. As results a great part of the uncertainties intrinsic to flood risk appraisal can be related to the hazard evaluation due to the uncertainty inherent to modeling results and to the subjectivity of the user defined hazard thresholds applied to link flood depth to a hazard level. In the present work, a statistical methodology was proposed for evaluating and reducing the uncertainties connected with hazard level estimation. The methodology has been applied to a real urban watershed as case study.

  2. Statistical approach to flood disaster management and risks ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In the past four decades, economic losses due to flood have increased tremendously and resulted in major loss of human lives and livelihoods, the destruction of economic and social infrastructure, as well as environmental damage. This study focuses on flood disaster management through the establishment of a flood ...

  3. A statistical approach to evaluate flood risk at the regional level: an application to Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossi, Mauro; Marchesini, Ivan; Salvati, Paola; Donnini, Marco; Guzzetti, Fausto; Sterlacchini, Simone; Zazzeri, Marco; Bonazzi, Alessandro; Carlesi, Andrea

    2016-04-01

    Floods are frequent and widespread in Italy, causing every year multiple fatalities and extensive damages to public and private structures. A pre-requisite for the development of mitigation schemes, including financial instruments such as insurance, is the ability to quantify their costs starting from the estimation of the underlying flood hazard. However, comprehensive and coherent information on flood prone areas, and estimates on the frequency and intensity of flood events, are not often available at scales appropriate for risk pooling and diversification. In Italy, River Basins Hydrogeological Plans (PAI), prepared by basin administrations, are the basic descriptive, regulatory, technical and operational tools for environmental planning in flood prone areas. Nevertheless, such plans do not cover the entire Italian territory, having significant gaps along the minor hydrographic network and in ungauged basins. Several process-based modelling approaches have been used by different basin administrations for the flood hazard assessment, resulting in an inhomogeneous hazard zonation of the territory. As a result, flood hazard assessments expected and damage estimations across the different Italian basin administrations are not always coherent. To overcome these limitations, we propose a simplified multivariate statistical approach for the regional flood hazard zonation coupled with a flood impact model. This modelling approach has been applied in different Italian basin administrations, allowing a preliminary but coherent and comparable estimation of the flood hazard and the relative impact. Model performances are evaluated comparing the predicted flood prone areas with the corresponding PAI zonation. The proposed approach will provide standardized information (following the EU Floods Directive specifications) on flood risk at a regional level which can in turn be more readily applied to assess flood economic impacts. Furthermore, in the assumption of an appropriate

  4. Efficient pan-European river flood hazard modelling through a combination of statistical and physical models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paprotny, D.; Morales Napoles, O.; Jonkman, S.N.

    2017-01-01

    Flood hazard is currently being researched on continental and global scales, using models of increasing complexity. In this paper we investigate a different, simplified approach, which combines statistical and physical models in place of conventional rainfall-run-off models to carry out flood

  5. Best Statistical Distribution of flood variables for Johor River in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salarpour Goodarzi, M.; Yusop, Z.; Yusof, F.

    2012-12-01

    A complex flood event is always characterized by a few characteristics such as flood peak, flood volume, and flood duration, which might be mutually correlated. This study explored the statistical distribution of peakflow, flood duration and flood volume at Rantau Panjang gauging station on the Johor River in Malaysia. Hourly data were recorded for 45 years. The data were analysed based on water year (July - June). Five distributions namely, Log Normal, Generalize Pareto, Log Pearson, Normal and Generalize Extreme Value (GEV) were used to model the distribution of all the three variables. Anderson-Darling and Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit tests were used to evaluate the best fit. Goodness-of-fit tests at 5% level of significance indicate that all the models can be used to model the distribution of peakflow, flood duration and flood volume. However, Generalize Pareto distribution is found to be the most suitable model when tested with the Anderson-Darling test and the, Kolmogorov-Smirnov suggested that GEV is the best for peakflow. The result of this research can be used to improve flood frequency analysis. Comparison between Generalized Extreme Value, Generalized Pareto and Log Pearson distributions in the Cumulative Distribution Function of peakflow

  6. A look at the links between drainage density and flood statistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Montanari

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the links between the drainage density of a river basin and selected flood statistics, namely, mean, standard deviation, coefficient of variation and coefficient of skewness of annual maximum series of peak flows. The investigation is carried out through a three-stage analysis. First, a numerical simulation is performed by using a spatially distributed hydrological model in order to highlight how flood statistics change with varying drainage density. Second, a conceptual hydrological model is used in order to analytically derive the dependence of flood statistics on drainage density. Third, real world data from 44 watersheds located in northern Italy were analysed. The three-level analysis seems to suggest that a critical value of the drainage density exists for which a minimum is attained in both the coefficient of variation and the absolute value of the skewness coefficient. Such minima in the flood statistics correspond to a minimum of the flood quantile for a given exceedance probability (i.e., recurrence interval. Therefore, the results of this study may provide useful indications for flood risk assessment in ungauged basins.

  7. Investigation of flood pattern using ANOVA statistic and remote sensing in Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ya'acob, Norsuzila; Ismail, Nor Syazwani; Mustafa, Norfazira; Yusof, Azita Laily

    2014-01-01

    Flood is an overflow or inundation that comes from river or other body of water and causes or threatens damages. In Malaysia, there are no formal categorization of flood but often broadly categorized as monsoonal, flash or tidal floods. This project will be focus on flood causes by monsoon. For the last few years, the number of extreme flood was occurred and brings great economic impact. The extreme weather pattern is the main sector contributes for this phenomenon. In 2010, several districts in the states of Kedah neighbour-hoods state have been hit by floods and it is caused by tremendous weather pattern. During this tragedy, the ratio of the rainfalls volume was not fixed for every region, and the flood happened when the amount of water increase rapidly and start to overflow. This is the main objective why this project has been carried out, and the analysis data has been done from August until October in 2010. The investigation was done to find the possibility correlation pattern parameters related to the flood. ANOVA statistic was used to calculate the percentage of parameters was involved and Regression and correlation calculate the strength of coefficient among parameters related to the flood while remote sensing image was used for validation between the calculation accuracy. According to the results, the prediction is successful as the coefficient of relation in flood event is 0.912 and proved by Terra-SAR image on 4th November 2010. The rates of change in weather pattern give the impact to the flood

  8. Flood statistics of simple and multiple scaling; Invarianza di scala del regime di piena

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosso, Renzo; Mancini, Marco; Burlando, Paolo; De Michele, Carlo [Milan, Politecnico Univ. (Italy). DIIAR; Brath, Armando [Bologna, Univ. (Italy). DISTART

    1996-09-01

    The variability of flood probabilities throughout the river network is investigated by introducing the concepts of simple and multiple scaling. Flood statistics and quantiles as parametrized by drainage area are considered, and a distributed geomorphoclimatic model is used to analyze in detail their scaling properties for two river basins in Thyrrhenian Liguria (North-Western Italy). Although temporal storm precipitation and spatial runoff production are not scaling, the resulting flood flows do not display substantial deviations from statistical self-similarity or simple scaling. This result has a wide potential in order to assess the concept of hydrological homogeneity, also indicating a new route towards establishing physically-based procedures for flood frequency regionalization.

  9. Statistics and Analysis of the Relations between Rainstorm Floods and Earthquakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baodeng Hou

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The frequent occurrence of geophysical disasters under climate change has drawn Chinese scholars to pay their attention to disaster relations. If the occurrence sequence of disasters could be identified, long-term disaster forecast could be realized. Based on the Earth Degassing Effect (EDE which is valid, this paper took the magnitude, epicenter, and occurrence time of the earthquake, as well as the epicenter and occurrence time of the rainstorm floods as basic factors to establish an integrated model to study the correlation between rainstorm floods and earthquakes. 2461 severe earthquakes occurred in China or within 3000 km from China and the 169 heavy rainstorm floods occurred in China over the past 200+ years as the input data of the model. The computational results showed that although most of the rainstorm floods have nothing to do with the severe earthquakes from a statistical perspective, some floods might relate to earthquakes. This is especially true when the earthquakes happen in the vapor transmission zone where rainstorms lead to abundant water vapors. In this regard, earthquakes are more likely to cause big rainstorm floods. However, many cases of rainstorm floods could be found after severe earthquakes with a large extent of uncertainty.

  10. Floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Floods are common in the United States. Weather such as heavy rain, thunderstorms, hurricanes, or tsunamis can ... is breached, or when a dam breaks. Flash floods, which can develop quickly, often have a dangerous ...

  11. Flash Flood Hazard Susceptibility Mapping Using Frequency Ratio and Statistical Index Methods in Coalmine Subsidence Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Cao

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This study focused on producing flash flood hazard susceptibility maps (FFHSM using frequency ratio (FR and statistical index (SI models in the Xiqu Gully (XQG of Beijing, China. First, a total of 85 flash flood hazard locations (n = 85 were surveyed in the field and plotted using geographic information system (GIS software. Based on the flash flood hazard locations, a flood hazard inventory map was built. Seventy percent (n = 60 of the flooding hazard locations were randomly selected for building the models. The remaining 30% (n = 25 of the flooded hazard locations were used for validation. Considering that the XQG used to be a coal mining area, coalmine caves and subsidence caused by coal mining exist in this catchment, as well as many ground fissures. Thus, this study took the subsidence risk level into consideration for FFHSM. The ten conditioning parameters were elevation, slope, curvature, land use, geology, soil texture, subsidence risk area, stream power index (SPI, topographic wetness index (TWI, and short-term heavy rain. This study also tested different classification schemes for the values for each conditional parameter and checked their impacts on the results. The accuracy of the FFHSM was validated using area under the curve (AUC analysis. Classification accuracies were 86.61%, 83.35%, and 78.52% using frequency ratio (FR-natural breaks, statistical index (SI-natural breaks and FR-manual classification schemes, respectively. Associated prediction accuracies were 83.69%, 81.22%, and 74.23%, respectively. It was found that FR modeling using a natural breaks classification method was more appropriate for generating FFHSM for the Xiqu Gully.

  12. FATIGUE AND FAULTY POSTURE CONNECTION AMONG CHILDREN, DIAGNOSED WITH DYSARTHRIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrejeva Julija

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Purpose : To analyze spastic dysarthria form in children population dependency of fatigue and faulty posture relationship. Methods: Research performed with the permission of the bioethics committee (RE-BK-063. The Dutch Fatigue Scale (DUFS. Posture in standing was assessed by Hoeger and Kendall. Research subjects n=40. n=20 children diagnosed with spastic dysarthria and n=20 of children without dysarthria. Their age was 10±2.1years. Boys were n=20 and girls - n=20.Results were statistically significant at p<0.05. Microsoft Office 2013, Excel package were used to count a research results. Results: For children with dysarthria fatigue level is more significant that for children without dysarthria; results were statistically significant, p<0.05. Posture disorder for children with dysarthria was statistically significant higher than among children without dysarthria, p<0.05. Conclusions: For children with dysarthria fatigue level is higher than for healthy children, thus for the girls fatigue level is higher than for the boys. Spastic form dysarthria has an impact to a child posture, by creating a direct dependency between posture deformation and skeletal muscle system disease, which decreases muscle power and increasing fatigue for a child. To correct faulty posture thus to decrease fatigue the tight collaboration needed between rehabilitation team members.

  13. Fatigue and faulty posture connection among children, diagnosed with dysarthria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julija Andrejeva

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Purpose : To analyze spastic dysarthria form in children population dependency of fatigue and faulty posture relationship. Methods: Research performed with the permission of the bioethics committee (RE-BK-063. The Dutch Fatigue Scale (DUFS. Posture in standing was assessed by Hoeger and Kendall. Research subjects n=40. n=20 children diagnosed with spastic dysarthria and n=20 of children without dysarthria. Their age was 10±2.1years. Boys were n=20 and girls - n=20.Results were statistically significant at p<0.05. Microsoft Office 2013, Excel package were used to count a research results. Results: For children with dysarthria fatigue level is more significant that for children without dysarthria; results were statistically significant, p<0.05. Posture disorder for children with dysarthria was statistically significant higher than among children without dysarthria, p<0.05. Conclusions: For children with dysarthria fatigue level is higher than for healthy children, thus for the girls fatigue level is higher than for the boys. Spastic form dysarthria has an impact to a child posture, by creating a direct dependency between posture deformation and skeletal muscle system disease, which decreases muscle power and increasing fatigue for a child. To correct faulty posture thus to decrease fatigue the tight collaboration needed between rehabilitation team members.

  14. The importance of vegetation change in the prediction of future tropical cyclone flood statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irish, J. L.; Resio, D.; Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Weiss, R.

    2015-12-01

    Global sea level rise is a near certainty over the next century (e.g., Stocker et al. 2013 [IPCC] and references therein). With sea level rise, coastal topography and land cover (hereafter "landscape") is expected to change and tropical cyclone flood hazard is expected to accelerate (e.g., Irish et al. 2010 [Ocean Eng], Woodruff et al. 2013 [Nature], Bilskie et al. 2014 [Geophys Res Lett], Ferreira et al. 2014 [Coast Eng], Passeri et al. 2015 [Nat Hazards]). Yet, the relative importance of sea-level rise induced landscape change on future tropical cyclone flood hazard assessment is not known. In this paper, idealized scenarios are used to evaluate the relative impact of one class of landscape change on future tropical cyclone extreme-value statistics in back-barrier regions: sea level rise induced vegetation migration and loss. The joint probability method with optimal sampling (JPM-OS) (Resio et al. 2009 [Nat Hazards]) with idealized surge response functions (e.g., Irish et al. 2009 [Nat Hazards]) is used to quantify the present-day and future flood hazard under various sea level rise scenarios. Results are evaluated in terms of their impact on the flood statistics (a) when projected flood elevations are included directly in the JPM analysis (Figure 1) and (b) when represented as additional uncertainty within the JPM integral (Resio et al. 2013 [Nat Hazards]), i.e., as random error. Findings are expected to aid in determining the level of effort required to reasonably account for future landscape change in hazard assessments, namely in determining when such processes are sufficiently captured by added uncertainty and when sea level rise induced vegetation changes must be considered dynamically, via detailed modeling initiatives. Acknowledgements: This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. CMMI-1206271 and by the National Sea Grant College Program of the U.S. Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and

  15. A generalized Grubbs-Beck test statistic for detecting multiple potentially influential low outliers in flood series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohn, T.A.; England, J.F.; Berenbrock, C.E.; Mason, R.R.; Stedinger, J.R.; Lamontagne, J.R.

    2013-01-01

    he Grubbs-Beck test is recommended by the federal guidelines for detection of low outliers in flood flow frequency computation in the United States. This paper presents a generalization of the Grubbs-Beck test for normal data (similar to the Rosner (1983) test; see also Spencer and McCuen (1996)) that can provide a consistent standard for identifying multiple potentially influential low flows. In cases where low outliers have been identified, they can be represented as “less-than” values, and a frequency distribution can be developed using censored-data statistical techniques, such as the Expected Moments Algorithm. This approach can improve the fit of the right-hand tail of a frequency distribution and provide protection from lack-of-fit due to unimportant but potentially influential low flows (PILFs) in a flood series, thus making the flood frequency analysis procedure more robust.

  16. High-resolution marine flood modelling coupling overflow and overtopping processes: framing the hazard based on historical and statistical approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolae Lerma, Alexandre; Bulteau, Thomas; Elineau, Sylvain; Paris, François; Durand, Paul; Anselme, Brice; Pedreros, Rodrigo

    2018-01-01

    A modelling chain was implemented in order to propose a realistic appraisal of the risk in coastal areas affected by overflowing as well as overtopping processes. Simulations are performed through a nested downscaling strategy from regional to local scale at high spatial resolution with explicit buildings, urban structures such as sea front walls and hydraulic structures liable to affect the propagation of water in urban areas. Validation of the model performance is based on hard and soft available data analysis and conversion of qualitative to quantitative information to reconstruct the area affected by flooding and the succession of events during two recent storms. Two joint probability approaches (joint exceedance contour and environmental contour) are used to define 100-year offshore conditions scenarios and to investigate the flood response to each scenario in terms of (1) maximum spatial extent of flooded areas, (2) volumes of water propagation inland and (3) water level in flooded areas. Scenarios of sea level rise are also considered in order to evaluate the potential hazard evolution. Our simulations show that for a maximising 100-year hazard scenario, for the municipality as a whole, 38 % of the affected zones are prone to overflow flooding and 62 % to flooding by propagation of overtopping water volume along the seafront. Results also reveal that for the two kinds of statistic scenarios a difference of about 5 % in the forcing conditions (water level, wave height and period) can produce significant differences in terms of flooding like +13.5 % of water volumes propagating inland or +11.3 % of affected surfaces. In some areas, flood response appears to be very sensitive to the chosen scenario with differences of 0.3 to 0.5 m in water level. The developed approach enables one to frame the 100-year hazard and to characterize spatially the robustness or the uncertainty over the results. Considering a 100-year scenario with mean sea level rise (0.6 m), hazard

  17. THE ASSESSMENT OF FLOODS WITHIN COŞUŞTEA RIVER BASIN, ROMANIA (2000 - 2012. A STATISTICAL AND CONDITIONAL APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MOROȘANU GABRIELA ADINA

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The research aims to analyze the floods that occurred between 2000 and 2012 in the Coșuștea river basin, Romania. The study area has 449 km2 and it is extended over the north-western part of Getic Piedmont (lower sector, as well as on Mehedinti Plateau and Mountains, in its upper sector. To achieve the objectives, hydrological data from two hydrometric stations, Corcova (downstream, located in the piedmont area and Șișești (upstream to the outlet of karstic upper section were used, in order to identify trends, employing statistical methods and graphical representations. We also verified the existence of extraordinary levels, respectively conditions responsible for the differences in the maximum flows, their frequency and duration in the two measured sections of the river basin. Thus, the results include: the statistical treatment of hydrologic data on floods between 2000 and 2012 and contributing factors that may result in different values of flood elements at the two hydrometric stations.

  18. Detecting SYN flood attacks via statistical monitoring charts: A comparative study

    KAUST Repository

    Bouyeddou, Benamar

    2017-12-14

    Accurate detection of cyber-attacks plays a central role in safeguarding computer networks and information systems. This paper addresses the problem of detecting SYN flood attacks, which are the most popular Denial of Service (DoS) attacks. Here, we compare the detection capacity of three commonly monitoring charts namely, a Shewhart chart, a Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) control chart and exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) chart, in detecting SYN flood attacks. The comparison study is conducted using the publicly available benchmark datasets: the 1999 DARPA Intrusion Detection Evaluation Datasets.

  19. Detecting SYN flood attacks via statistical monitoring charts: A comparative study

    KAUST Repository

    Bouyeddou, Benamar; Harrou, Fouzi; Sun, Ying; Kadri, Benamar

    2017-01-01

    Accurate detection of cyber-attacks plays a central role in safeguarding computer networks and information systems. This paper addresses the problem of detecting SYN flood attacks, which are the most popular Denial of Service (DoS) attacks. Here, we

  20. Flood probability quantification for road infrastructure: Data-driven spatial-statistical approach and case study applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalantari, Zahra; Cavalli, Marco; Cantone, Carolina; Crema, Stefano; Destouni, Georgia

    2017-03-01

    Climate-driven increase in the frequency of extreme hydrological events is expected to impose greater strain on the built environment and major transport infrastructure, such as roads and railways. This study develops a data-driven spatial-statistical approach to quantifying and mapping the probability of flooding at critical road-stream intersection locations, where water flow and sediment transport may accumulate and cause serious road damage. The approach is based on novel integration of key watershed and road characteristics, including also measures of sediment connectivity. The approach is concretely applied to and quantified for two specific study case examples in southwest Sweden, with documented road flooding effects of recorded extreme rainfall. The novel contributions of this study in combining a sediment connectivity account with that of soil type, land use, spatial precipitation-runoff variability and road drainage in catchments, and in extending the connectivity measure use for different types of catchments, improve the accuracy of model results for road flood probability. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. The european flood alert system EFAS – Part 2: Statistical skill assessment of probabilistic and deterministic operational forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Bartholmes

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Since 2005 the European Flood Alert System (EFAS has been producing probabilistic hydrological forecasts in pre-operational mode at the Joint Research Centre (JRC of the European Commission. EFAS aims at increasing preparedness for floods in trans-national European river basins by providing medium-range deterministic and probabilistic flood forecasting information, from 3 to 10 days in advance, to national hydro-meteorological services.

    This paper is Part 2 of a study presenting the development and skill assessment of EFAS. In Part 1, the scientific approach adopted in the development of the system has been presented, as well as its basic principles and forecast products. In the present article, two years of existing operational EFAS forecasts are statistically assessed and the skill of EFAS forecasts is analysed with several skill scores. The analysis is based on the comparison of threshold exceedances between proxy-observed and forecasted discharges. Skill is assessed both with and without taking into account the persistence of the forecasted signal during consecutive forecasts.

    Skill assessment approaches are mostly adopted from meteorology and the analysis also compares probabilistic and deterministic aspects of EFAS. Furthermore, the utility of different skill scores is discussed and their strengths and shortcomings illustrated. The analysis shows the benefit of incorporating past forecasts in the probability analysis, for medium-range forecasts, which effectively increases the skill of the forecasts.

  2. Eviction of Misbehaving and Faulty Nodes in Vehicular Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Raya, Maxim; Papadimitratos, Panagiotis; Aad, Imad; Jungels, Daniel; Hubaux, Jean-Pierre

    2007-01-01

    Vehicular Networks (VNs) are emerging, among civilian applications, as a convincing instantiation of the mobile networking technology. However, security is a critical factor and a significant challenge to be met. Misbehaving or faulty network nodes have to be detected and prevented from disrupting network operation, a problem particularly hard to address in the life-critical VN environment. Existing networks rely mainly on node certificate revocation for attacker eviction, but the lack of an ...

  3. Implementation and Evaluation of the Streamflow Statistics (StreamStats) Web Application for Computing Basin Characteristics and Flood Peaks in Illinois

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishii, Audrey L.; Soong, David T.; Sharpe, Jennifer B.

    2010-01-01

    Illinois StreamStats (ILSS) is a Web-based application for computing selected basin characteristics and flood-peak quantiles based on the most recently (2010) published (Soong and others, 2004) regional flood-frequency equations at any rural stream location in Illinois. Limited streamflow statistics including general statistics, flow durations, and base flows also are available for U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-gaging stations. ILSS can be accessed on the Web at http://streamstats.usgs.gov/ by selecting the State Applications hyperlink and choosing Illinois from the pull-down menu. ILSS was implemented for Illinois by obtaining and projecting ancillary geographic information system (GIS) coverages; populating the StreamStats database with streamflow-gaging station data; hydroprocessing the 30-meter digital elevation model (DEM) for Illinois to conform to streams represented in the National Hydrographic Dataset 1:100,000 stream coverage; and customizing the Web-based Extensible Markup Language (XML) programs for computing basin characteristics for Illinois. The basin characteristics computed by ILSS then were compared to the basin characteristics used in the published study, and adjustments were applied to the XML algorithms for slope and basin length. Testing of ILSS was accomplished by comparing flood quantiles computed by ILSS at a an approximately random sample of 170 streamflow-gaging stations computed by ILSS with the published flood quantile estimates. Differences between the log-transformed flood quantiles were not statistically significant at the 95-percent confidence level for the State as a whole, nor by the regions determined by each equation, except for region 1, in the northwest corner of the State. In region 1, the average difference in flood quantile estimates ranged from 3.76 percent for the 2-year flood quantile to 4.27 percent for the 500-year flood quantile. The total number of stations in region 1 was small (21) and the mean

  4. PWR cold-leg small break loca with faulty HPI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumamaru, H.; Kukita, Y.

    1991-01-01

    The ROSA-IV Large Scale Test Facility (LSTF) is a 1/48 volumetrically-scaled model of a pressurized water reactor (PWR). At the LSTF are performed cold-leg small-break loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) tests with faulty high pressure injection (HPI) system for break areas from 0.5% to 10% and an intentional primary system depressurization test following a small-break LOCA test. A simple prediction model is proposed for prediction of times of major events. Test data and calculations show that intentional primary system depressurization with use of the pressurizer power-operated relief valves (PORVs) is effective for break areas of approximately 0.5% or less, is unnecessary for breaks of 5% or more, and is insufficient for intermediate break areas to maintain adequate core cooling. (author)

  5. The effect of faulty local detectors on a detection network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mirjalily, G.; Emadi, S.

    2002-01-01

    Distributed detection theory has received increasing attention recently. Development of multiple sensors for signal detection results in improved performance and increased reliability. in a detection network, each local sensor decides locally whether a signal is detected or not. The local decisions are sent to the fusion center, where the final decision is made. In this paper, a theoretic approach is considered to data fusion when one of the sensors is faulty. If the fusion center does not have any knowledge of this fault, the performance of the system is different than its normal performance. The changes in the error probabilities depend on the type of the fault and on the threshold value of the fission center test. We derived some expressions of the changes in the values of error probabilities. For some type of faults, the system false alarm probability increases significantly, whereas for some other faults, the system detection probability decreases significantly. To illustrate the results, a numerical example is also given

  6. Poor knowledge and faulty thinking regarding hemolysis and potassium elevation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawkins, Robert C

    2005-01-01

    A questionnaire to assess knowledge of the expected elevation in serum K measurement with different grades of hemolysis was administered to medical technologists working in biochemistry laboratories, hospital physicians and nurses. The questions involved different grades of hemolysis (mild, 1.0, moderate, 2.5 and severe, 5.0 g/L) and different final K measurements (2.9, 4.0, 5.2 and 8.2 mmol/L). Subjects estimated the K concentration in a non-hemolyzed sample for each scenario. Adjustment values (difference between final hemolyzed K concentration and subject's response) were calculated. For the 132 respondees, the mean correct score was 1.7/12. Mean adjustment values were: mild, 0.43 mmol/L (K 2.9), 0.55 (4.0), 0.88 (5.2) and 1.53 (8.2); moderate, 0.85 (2.9), 0.92 (4.0), 1.33 (5.2) and 2.50 (8.2); and severe, 0.93 (2.9), 1.48 (4.0), 1.96 (5.2), 2.96 (8.2). Correct adjustments were: mild, 0.28; moderate, 0.70; and severe, 1.40 mmol/L. Healthcare staff overestimated the effect of hemolysis on potassium measurement and used an incorrect proportional adjustment approach to the problem. Such poor knowledge and faulty thinking could lead to diagnostic delays or misdiagnoses. There is potential for such faulty thinking in all areas of laboratory medicine, and laboratories should review their educational responsibilities and reporting practices in light of this.

  7. Floods and Flash Flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Floods and flash flooding Now is the time to determine your area’s flood risk. If you are not sure whether you ... If you are in a floodplain, consider buying flood insurance. Do not drive around barricades. If your ...

  8. ICUD-0147 Extreme event statistics of urban pluvial floods – Return period assessment and rainfall variability impacts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tuyls, Damian Murla; Nielsen, Rasmus; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke

    2017-01-01

    A return period assessment of urban flood has been performed and its adhered impact of rainfall variability studied over a urban drainage catchment area in Aalborg, Denmark. Recorded rainfall from 7 rain gauges has been used, located in a range of 7.5Km and for a period varying form 18-37 years....... Return period of rainfall and flood at catchment and local scale has been estimated, its derived ambiguities analysed and the variability of rain gauge based rainfall investigated regarding to flood estimation results. Results show a clear contrast between rainfall and flood return period estimates...

  9. Flooding and Flood Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, K.N.; Fallon, J.D.; Lorenz, D.L.; Stark, J.R.; Menard, Jason; Easter, K.W.; Perry, Jim

    2011-01-01

    Floods result in great human disasters globally and nationally, causing an average of $4 billion of damages each year in the United States. Minnesota has its share of floods and flood damages, and the state has awarded nearly $278 million to local units of government for flood mitigation projects through its Flood Hazard Mitigation Grant Program. Since 1995, flood mitigation in the Red River Valley has exceeded $146 million. Considerable local and state funding has been provided to manage and mitigate problems of excess stormwater in urban areas, flooding of farmlands, and flood damages at road crossings. The cumulative costs involved with floods and flood mitigation in Minnesota are not known precisely, but it is safe to conclude that flood mitigation is a costly business. This chapter begins with a description of floods in Minneosta to provide examples and contrasts across the state. Background material is presented to provide a basic understanding of floods and flood processes, predication, and management and mitigation. Methods of analyzing and characterizing floods are presented because they affect how we respond to flooding and can influence relevant practices. The understanding and perceptions of floods and flooding commonly differ among those who work in flood forecasting, flood protection, or water resource mamnagement and citizens and businesses affected by floods. These differences can become magnified following a major flood, pointing to the need for better understanding of flooding as well as common language to describe flood risks and the uncertainty associated with determining such risks. Expectations of accurate and timely flood forecasts and our ability to control floods do not always match reality. Striving for clarity is important in formulating policies that can help avoid recurring flood damages and costs.

  10. Faulty judgment, expert opinion, and decision-making capacity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silberfeld, M; Checkland, D

    1999-08-01

    An assessment of decision-making capacity is the accepted procedure for determining when a person is not competent. An inferential gap exists between the criteria for capacity specific abilities and the legal requirements to understand relevant information and appreciate the consequences of a decision. This gap extends to causal influences on a person's capacity to decide. Using a published case of depression, we illustrate that assessors' uses of diagnostic information is frequently not up to the task of bridging this inferential gap in a justifiable way. We then describe cases of faulty judgement which challenge the understanding of diagnostic causal influences. These cases help to clarify the nature of the expertise required for capacity assessments. In practice, the requirements of decision-making capacity are often abandoned to other considerations due to a lack of requisite expertise. The legal policy supporting decision-making capacity as a means to protective intervention is justified only if the requisite expertise is developed. We propose the requisite expertise to be developed in the long term as a distinct multidisciplinary endeavour.

  11. Targeting Faulty Bearings for an Ocean Turbine Dynamometer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David J. Vendittis

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A real-time, vibrations-based condition monitoring method used to detect, localize, and identify a faulty bearing in an ocean turbine electric motor is presented in this paper. The electric motor is installed in a dynamometer emulating the functions of the actual ocean turbine. High frequency modal analysis and power trending are combined to assess the operational health of the dynamometer’s bearings across an array of accelerometers. Once a defect has been detected, envelope analysis is used to identify the exact bearing containing the defect. After a brief background on bearing fault detection, this paper introduces a simplified mathematical model of the bearing fault, followed with the signal processing approach used to detect, locate, and identify the fault. In the results section, effectiveness of the methods of bearing fault detection presented in this paper is demonstrated through processing data collected, first, from a controlled lathe setup and, second, from the dynamometer. By mounting a bearing containing a defect punched into its inner raceway to a lathe and placing an array of accelerometers along the length of lathe, the bearing fault is clearly detected, localized, and identified as an inner raceway defect. Through retroactively trending the data leading to the near-failure of one of the electric motors in the dynamometer, the authors identified a positive trend in energy levels for a specific frequency band present across the array of accelerometers and identify two bearings as possible sources of the fault.

  12. A limited area model intercomparison on the 'Montserrat-2000' flash-flood event using statistical and deterministic methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Mariani

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available In the scope of the European project Hydroptimet, INTERREG IIIB-MEDOCC programme, limited area model (LAM intercomparison of intense events that produced many damages to people and territory is performed. As the comparison is limited to single case studies, the work is not meant to provide a measure of the different models' skill, but to identify the key model factors useful to give a good forecast on such a kind of meteorological phenomena. This work focuses on the Spanish flash-flood event, also known as 'Montserrat-2000' event. The study is performed using forecast data from seven operational LAMs, placed at partners' disposal via the Hydroptimet ftp site, and observed data from Catalonia rain gauge network. To improve the event analysis, satellite rainfall estimates have been also considered. For statistical evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs, several non-parametric skill scores based on contingency tables have been used. Furthermore, for each model run it has been possible to identify Catalonia regions affected by misses and false alarms using contingency table elements. Moreover, the standard 'eyeball' analysis of forecast and observed precipitation fields has been supported by the use of a state-of-the-art diagnostic method, the contiguous rain area (CRA analysis. This method allows to quantify the spatial shift forecast error and to identify the error sources that affected each model forecasts. High-resolution modelling and domain size seem to have a key role for providing a skillful forecast. Further work is needed to support this statement, including verification using a wider observational data set.

  13. Real-time management of faulty electrodes in electrical impedance tomography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartinger, Alzbeta E; Guardo, Robert; Adler, Andy; Gagnon, Hervé

    2009-02-01

    Completely or partially disconnected electrodes are a fairly common occurrence in many electrical impedance tomography (EIT) clinical applications. Several factors can contribute to electrode disconnection: patient movement, perspiration, manipulations by clinical staff, and defective electrode leads or electronics. By corrupting several measurements, faulty electrodes introduce significant image artifacts. In order to properly manage faulty electrodes, it is necessary to: 1) account for invalid data in image reconstruction algorithms and 2) automatically detect faulty electrodes. This paper presents a two-part approach for real-time management of faulty electrodes based on the principle of voltage-current reciprocity. The first part allows accounting for faulty electrodes in EIT image reconstruction without a priori knowledge of which electrodes are at fault. The method properly weights each measurement according to its compliance with the principle of voltage-current reciprocity. Results show that the algorithm is able to automatically determine the valid portion of the data and use it to calculate high-quality images. The second part of the approach allows automatic real-time detection of at least one faulty electrode with 100% sensitivity and two faulty electrodes with 80% sensitivity enabling the clinical staff to fix the problem as soon as possible to minimize data loss.

  14. System and method for detecting a faulty object in a system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunnels, John A.; Gustavson, Fred Gehrung; Engle, Robert Daniel

    2010-12-14

    A method (and system) for detecting at least one faulty object in a system including a plurality of objects in communication with each other in an n-dimensional architecture, includes probing a first plane of objects in the n-dimensional architecture and probing at least one other plane of objects in the n-dimensional architecture which would result in identifying a faulty object in the system.

  15. Statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Hayslett, H T

    1991-01-01

    Statistics covers the basic principles of Statistics. The book starts by tackling the importance and the two kinds of statistics; the presentation of sample data; the definition, illustration and explanation of several measures of location; and the measures of variation. The text then discusses elementary probability, the normal distribution and the normal approximation to the binomial. Testing of statistical hypotheses and tests of hypotheses about the theoretical proportion of successes in a binomial population and about the theoretical mean of a normal population are explained. The text the

  16. Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Links to sources of cancer-related statistics, including the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program, SEER-Medicare datasets, cancer survivor prevalence data, and the Cancer Trends Progress Report.

  17. El Niño-Southern Oscillation-based index insurance for floods: Statistical risk analyses and application to Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalil, Abedalrazq F.; Kwon, Hyun-Han; Lall, Upmanu; Miranda, Mario J.; Skees, Jerry

    2007-10-01

    Index insurance has recently been advocated as a useful risk transfer tool for disaster management situations where rapid fiscal relief is desirable and where estimating insured losses may be difficult, time consuming, or subject to manipulation and falsification. For climate-related hazards, a rainfall or temperature index may be proposed. However, rainfall may be highly spatially variable relative to the gauge network, and in many locations, data are inadequate to develop an index because of short time series and the spatial dispersion of stations. In such cases, it may be helpful to consider a climate proxy index as a regional rainfall index. This is particularly useful if a long record is available for the climate index through an independent source and it is well correlated with the regional rainfall hazard. Here El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related climate indices are explored for use as a proxy to extreme rainfall in one of the districts of Peru, Piura. The ENSO index insurance product may be purchased by banks or microfinance institutions to aid agricultural damage relief in Peru. Crop losses in the region are highly correlated with floods but are difficult to assess directly. Beyond agriculture, many other sectors suffer as well. Basic infrastructure is destroyed during the most severe events. This disrupts trade for many microenterprises. The reliability and quality of the local rainfall data are variable. Averaging the financial risk across the region is desirable. Some issues with the implementation of the proxy ENSO index are identified and discussed. Specifically, we explore (1) the reliability of the index at different levels of probability of exceedance of maximum seasonal rainfall, (2) the effect of sampling uncertainties and the strength of the proxy's association to local outcome, (3) the potential for clustering of payoffs, (4) the potential that the index could be predicted with some lead time prior to the flood season, and (5) evidence

  18. Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    For the years 2004 and 2005 the figures shown in the tables of Energy Review are partly preliminary. The annual statistics published in Energy Review are presented in more detail in a publication called Energy Statistics that comes out yearly. Energy Statistics also includes historical time-series over a longer period of time (see e.g. Energy Statistics, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 2004.) The applied energy units and conversion coefficients are shown in the back cover of the Review. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in GDP, energy consumption and electricity consumption, Carbon dioxide emissions from fossile fuels use, Coal consumption, Consumption of natural gas, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices in heat production, Fuel prices in electricity production, Price of electricity by type of consumer, Average monthly spot prices at the Nord pool power exchange, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Supplies and total consumption of electricity GWh, Energy imports by country of origin in January-June 2003, Energy exports by recipient country in January-June 2003, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Price of natural gas by type of consumer, Price of electricity by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Energy taxes, precautionary stock fees and oil pollution fees

  19. Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    For the year 2000, part of the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are preliminary or estimated. The annual statistics of the Energy Review appear in more detail from the publication Energiatilastot - Energy Statistics issued annually, which also includes historical time series over a longer period (see e.g. Energiatilastot 1999, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 2000, ISSN 0785-3165). The inside of the Review's back cover shows the energy units and the conversion coefficients used for them. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in the volume of GNP and energy consumption, Changes in the volume of GNP and electricity, Coal consumption, Natural gas consumption, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices for heat production, Fuel prices for electricity production, Carbon dioxide emissions from the use of fossil fuels, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Electricity supply, Energy imports by country of origin in 2000, Energy exports by recipient country in 2000, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Average electricity price by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Energy taxes and precautionary stock fees on oil products

  20. Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    For the year 1999 and 2000, part of the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are preliminary or estimated. The annual statistics of the Energy Review appear in more detail from the publication Energiatilastot - Energy Statistics issued annually, which also includes historical time series over a longer period (see e.g., Energiatilastot 1998, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 1999, ISSN 0785-3165). The inside of the Review's back cover shows the energy units and the conversion coefficients used for them. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in the volume of GNP and energy consumption, Changes in the volume of GNP and electricity, Coal consumption, Natural gas consumption, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices for heat production, Fuel prices for electricity production, Carbon dioxide emissions, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Electricity supply, Energy imports by country of origin in January-March 2000, Energy exports by recipient country in January-March 2000, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Average electricity price by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Energy taxes and precautionary stock fees on oil products

  1. Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-01-01

    For the year 1998 and the year 1999, part of the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are preliminary or estimated. The annual statistics of the Energy Review appear in more detail from the publication Energiatilastot - Energy Statistics issued annually, which also includes historical time series over a longer period (see e.g. Energiatilastot 1998, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 1999, ISSN 0785-3165). The inside of the Review's back cover shows the energy units and the conversion coefficients used for them. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in the volume of GNP and energy consumption, Changes in the volume of GNP and electricity, Coal consumption, Natural gas consumption, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices for heat production, Fuel prices for electricity production, Carbon dioxide emissions, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Electricity supply, Energy imports by country of origin in January-June 1999, Energy exports by recipient country in January-June 1999, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Average electricity price by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Energy taxes and precautionary stock fees on oil products

  2. Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    For the year 2002, part of the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are partly preliminary. The annual statistics of the Energy Review also includes historical time-series over a longer period (see e.g. Energiatilastot 2001, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 2002). The applied energy units and conversion coefficients are shown in the inside back cover of the Review. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in GDP, energy consumption and electricity consumption, Carbon dioxide emissions from fossile fuels use, Coal consumption, Consumption of natural gas, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices in heat production, Fuel prices in electricity production, Price of electricity by type of consumer, Average monthly spot prices at the Nord pool power exchange, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Supply and total consumption of electricity GWh, Energy imports by country of origin in January-June 2003, Energy exports by recipient country in January-June 2003, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Price of natural gas by type of consumer, Price of electricity by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Excise taxes, precautionary stock fees on oil pollution fees on energy products

  3. Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    For the year 2003 and 2004, the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are partly preliminary. The annual statistics of the Energy Review also includes historical time-series over a longer period (see e.g. Energiatilastot, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 2003, ISSN 0785-3165). The applied energy units and conversion coefficients are shown in the inside back cover of the Review. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in GDP, energy consumption and electricity consumption, Carbon dioxide emissions from fossile fuels use, Coal consumption, Consumption of natural gas, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices in heat production, Fuel prices in electricity production, Price of electricity by type of consumer, Average monthly spot prices at the Nord pool power exchange, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Supplies and total consumption of electricity GWh, Energy imports by country of origin in January-March 2004, Energy exports by recipient country in January-March 2004, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Price of natural gas by type of consumer, Price of electricity by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Excise taxes, precautionary stock fees on oil pollution fees

  4. Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    For the year 1999 and 2000, part of the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are preliminary or estimated. The annual statistics of the Energy also includes historical time series over a longer period (see e.g., Energiatilastot 1999, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 2000, ISSN 0785-3165). The inside of the Review's back cover shows the energy units and the conversion coefficients used for them. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in the volume of GNP and energy consumption, Changes in the volume of GNP and electricity, Coal consumption, Natural gas consumption, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices for heat production, Fuel prices for electricity production, Carbon dioxide emissions, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Electricity supply, Energy imports by country of origin in January-June 2000, Energy exports by recipient country in January-June 2000, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Average electricity price by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Energy taxes and precautionary stock fees on oil products

  5. Method for estimating potential wetland extent by utilizing streamflow statistics and flood-inundation mapping techniques: Pilot study for land along the Wabash River near Terre Haute, Indiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Moon H.; Ritz, Christian T.; Arvin, Donald V.

    2012-01-01

    Potential wetland extents were estimated for a 14-mile reach of the Wabash River near Terre Haute, Indiana. This pilot study was completed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS). The study showed that potential wetland extents can be estimated by analyzing streamflow statistics with the available streamgage data, calculating the approximate water-surface elevation along the river, and generating maps by use of flood-inundation mapping techniques. Planning successful restorations for Wetland Reserve Program (WRP) easements requires a determination of areas that show evidence of being in a zone prone to sustained or frequent flooding. Zone determinations of this type are used by WRP planners to define the actively inundated area and make decisions on restoration-practice installation. According to WRP planning guidelines, a site needs to show evidence of being in an "inundation zone" that is prone to sustained or frequent flooding for a period of 7 consecutive days at least once every 2 years on average in order to meet the planning criteria for determining a wetland for a restoration in agricultural land. By calculating the annual highest 7-consecutive-day mean discharge with a 2-year recurrence interval (7MQ2) at a streamgage on the basis of available streamflow data, one can determine the water-surface elevation corresponding to the calculated flow that defines the estimated inundation zone along the river. By using the estimated water-surface elevation ("inundation elevation") along the river, an approximate extent of potential wetland for a restoration in agricultural land can be mapped. As part of the pilot study, a set of maps representing the estimated potential wetland extents was generated in a geographic information system (GIS) application by combining (1) a digital water-surface plane representing the surface of inundation elevation that sloped in the downstream

  6. A statistical forecast model using the time-scale decomposition technique to predict rainfall during flood period over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Yijia; Zhong, Zhong; Zhu, Yimin; Ha, Yao

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, a statistical forecast model using the time-scale decomposition method is established to do the seasonal prediction of the rainfall during flood period (FPR) over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley (MLYRV). This method decomposites the rainfall over the MLYRV into three time-scale components, namely, the interannual component with the period less than 8 years, the interdecadal component with the period from 8 to 30 years, and the interdecadal component with the period larger than 30 years. Then, the predictors are selected for the three time-scale components of FPR through the correlation analysis. At last, a statistical forecast model is established using the multiple linear regression technique to predict the three time-scale components of the FPR, respectively. The results show that this forecast model can capture the interannual and interdecadal variation of FPR. The hindcast of FPR during 14 years from 2001 to 2014 shows that the FPR can be predicted successfully in 11 out of the 14 years. This forecast model performs better than the model using traditional scheme without time-scale decomposition. Therefore, the statistical forecast model using the time-scale decomposition technique has good skills and application value in the operational prediction of FPR over the MLYRV.

  7. Vitamin-caused faulty perinatal hormonal imprinting and its consequences in adult age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Csaba, G

    2017-09-01

    Lipid-soluble vitamins (vitamins A, D, E, and K) are actually hormones (exohormones), as they can be directly bound by hormone receptors or are in connection with molecules, which influence hormone receptors. Vitamin D is a transition between endo- and exohormones and the possibility of similar situation in case of other lipid-soluble hormones is discussed. The perinatal exposition with these "vitamins" can cause faulty perinatal hormonal imprinting with similar consequences as the faulty imprinting by the synthetic endohormones, members of the same hormone family or industrial, communal, or medical endocrine disruptors. The faulty imprinting leads to late (lifelong) consequences with altered hormone binding by receptors, altered sexuality, brain function, immunity, bone development, and fractures, etc. In addition, as hormonal imprinting is an epigenetic process, the effect of a single exposure by fat-soluble vitamins is inherited to the progeny generations. As vitamins are handled differently from hormones; however, perinatal treatments take place frequently and sometimes it is forced, the negative late effect of faulty perinatal vitamin-caused hormonal imprinting must be considered.

  8. Meta-heuristic cuckoo search algorithm for the correction of faulty array antenna

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khan, S.U.; Qureshi, I.M.

    2015-01-01

    In this article, we introduce a CSA (Cuckoo Search Algorithm) for compensation of faulty array antenna. It is assumed that the faulty elemental location is also known. When the sensor fails, it disturbs the power pattern, owing to which its SLL (Sidelobe Level) raises and nulls are shifted from their required positions. In this approach, the CSA optimizes the weights of the active elements for the reduction of SLL and null position in the desired direction. The meta-heuristic CSA is used for the control of SLL and steering of nulls at their required positions. The CSA is based on the necessitated kids bloodsucking behavior of cuckoo sort in arrangement with the Levy flight manners. The fitness function is used to reduce the error between the preferred and probable pattern along with null constraints. Imitational consequences for various scenarios are given to exhibit the validity and presentation of the proposed method. (author)

  9. Development of a faulty reactivity detection system applying a digital H∞ estimator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzuki, Katsuo; Suzudo, Tomoaki; Nabeshima, Kunihiko

    2004-01-01

    This paper concerns an application of digital optimal H ∞ estimator to the detection of faulty reactivity in real-time. The detection system, fundamentally based on the reactivity balance method, is composed of three modules, i.e. the net reactivity estimator, the feedback reactivity estimator and the reactivity balance circuit. H ∞ optimal filters are used for these two reactivity estimators, and the nonlinear neutronics are taken into consideration especially for the design of the net reactivity estimator. A series of performance test of the detection system are conducted by using numerical simulations of reactor dynamics with the insertion of a faulty reactivity for an experimental fast breeder reactor JOYO. The system detects the typical artificial reactivity insertions during a few seconds with no stationary offset and the accuracy of 0.1 cent, and is satisfactory for its practical use. (author)

  10. Fuzzy Pattern Classification Based Detection of Faulty Electronic Fuel Control (EFC Valves Used in Diesel Engines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Umut Tugsal

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we develop mathematical models of a rotary Electronic Fuel Control (EFC valve used in a Diesel engine based on dynamic performance test data and system identification methodology in order to detect the faulty EFC valves. The model takes into account the dynamics of the electrical and mechanical portions of the EFC valves. A recursive least squares (RLS type system identification methodology has been utilized to determine the transfer functions of the different types of EFC valves that were investigated in this study. Both in frequency domain and time domain methods have been utilized for this purpose. Based on the characteristic patterns exhibited by the EFC valves, a fuzzy logic based pattern classification method was utilized to evaluate the residuals and identify faulty EFC valves from good ones. The developed methodology has been shown to provide robust diagnostics for a wide range of EFC valves.

  11. The Effects of Faulty or Potentially Harmful Products on Brand Reputation and Social Responsibility of Business

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudiu-Cătălin Munteanu

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Building a strong brand requires a good management of brand reputation over time. Social responsibility of business is a key factor in evoking a positive brand reputation. Both the product itself and brand related actions and communications define brand reputation in the eyes of consumers, thus influencing perceived corporate social responsibility. As a consequence, it can be easily hindered or endangered by many product related issues such as faulty products or potentially harmful products. The purpose of this article is to provide an insight on the link between brand reputation and social responsibility in order to help organizations provide better services and protection for consumers. We examined how brand reputation is influenced by the negative bias generated by brand related communications regarding potentially harmful products. This study also analyzes how under normal consumption circumstances, consumers' experiences related to faulty products can influence brand reputation. To investigate this, we propose a model based on perceptual brand constructs and possible outcomes of brand reputation. In both circumstances, negative spillover effects are highlighted using structural equation modeling. The findings reveal that both faulty products and potentially harmful products have a negative bias on brand reputation, but affected perceptual brand constructs are different.

  12. Flash-flood potential assessment and mapping by integrating the weights-of-evidence and frequency ratio statistical methods in GIS environment - case study: Bâsca Chiojdului River catchment (Romania)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costache, Romulus; Zaharia, Liliana

    2017-06-01

    Given the significant worldwide human and economic losses caused due to floods annually, reducing the negative consequences of these hazards is a major concern in development strategies at different spatial scales. A basic step in flood risk management is identifying areas susceptible to flood occurrences. This paper proposes a methodology allowing the identification of areas with high potential of accelerated surface run-off and consequently, of flash-flood occurrences. The methodology involves assessment and mapping in GIS environment of flash flood potential index (FFPI), by integrating two statistical methods: frequency ratio and weights-of-evidence. The methodology was applied for Bâsca Chiojdului River catchment (340 km2), located in the Carpathians Curvature region (Romania). Firstly, the areas with torrential phenomena were identified and the main factors controlling the surface run-off were selected (in this study nine geographical factors were considered). Based on the features of the considered factors, many classes were set for each of them. In the next step, the weights of each class/category of the considered factors were determined, by identifying their spatial relationships with the presence or absence of torrential phenomena. Finally, the weights for each class/category of geographical factors were summarized in GIS, resulting the FFPI values for each of the two statistical methods. These values were divided into five classes of intensity and were mapped. The final results were used to estimate the flash-flood potential and also to identify the most susceptible areas to this phenomenon. Thus, the high and very high values of FFPI characterize more than one-third of the study catchment. The result validation was performed by (i) quantifying the rate of the number of pixels corresponding to the torrential phenomena considered for the study (training area) and for the results' testing (validating area) and (ii) plotting the ROC (receiver operating

  13. Provision of faultiness of technical objects on the computerized simulation base of their elements replacements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muzdybaev, M.S.; Kul'seitov, A.Zh.

    2002-01-01

    It is noted, that on the base of technical system reliability analysis items of replacements (repair) of a good's parts are considered. It is shown, that one of the way of a good reliability task solution is formation of groups of a good parts joint replacements. Advantages which under similar approach are first of al revealing both the high faultiness level and the system work ability. It is determined, that it is purposively parts limiting of a good reliability joint in groups of its joint replacements, at that its amount it is necessary to achieving a minimum

  14. Theory of Mind Deficit versus Faulty Procedural Memory in Autism Spectrum Disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romero-Munguía, Miguel Ángel

    2013-01-01

    Individuals with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) have impairments in social interaction, communicative capacity, and behavioral flexibility (core triad). Three major cognitive theories (theory of mind deficit, weak central coherence, and executive dysfunction) seem to explain many of these impairments. Currently, however, the empathizing-systemizing (a newer version of the theory of mind deficit account) and mnesic imbalance theories are the only ones that attempt to explain all these core triadic symptoms of ASD On the other hand, theory of mind deficit in empathizing-systemizing theory is the most influential account for ASD, but its counterpart in the mnesic imbalance theory, faulty procedural memory, seems to occur earlier in development; consequently, this might be a better solution to the problem of the etiology of ASD, if it truly meets the precedence criterion. Hence, in the present paper I review the reasoning in favor of the theory of mind deficit but with a new interpretation based on the mnesic imbalance theory, which posits that faulty procedural memory causes deficits in several cognitive skills, resulting in poor performance in theory of mind tasks.

  15. Theory of Mind Deficit versus Faulty Procedural Memory in Autism Spectrum Disorders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel Ángel Romero-Munguía

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Individuals with autism spectrum disorders (ASD have impairments in social interaction, communicative capacity, and behavioral flexibility (core triad. Three major cognitive theories (theory of mind deficit, weak central coherence, and executive dysfunction seem to explain many of these impairments. Currently, however, the empathizing-systemizing (a newer version of the theory of mind deficit account and mnesic imbalance theories are the only ones that attempt to explain all these core triadic symptoms of ASD On the other hand, theory of mind deficit in empathizing-systemizing theory is the most influential account for ASD, but its counterpart in the mnesic imbalance theory, faulty procedural memory, seems to occur earlier in development; consequently, this might be a better solution to the problem of the etiology of ASD, if it truly meets the precedence criterion. Hence, in the present paper I review the reasoning in favor of the theory of mind deficit but with a new interpretation based on the mnesic imbalance theory, which posits that faulty procedural memory causes deficits in several cognitive skills, resulting in poor performance in theory of mind tasks.

  16. The faulty Master Events Controller is carried away from STS-99 Endeavour

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000-01-01

    Workers carry away the faulty Enhanced Main Events Controller (E- MEC) from Shuttle Endeavour at Launch Pad 39A. The E-MEC became suspect during the Jan. 31 launch countdown and mission STS-99 was delayed when NASA managers decided to replace it. Each Shuttle carries two enhanced master events controllers (E-MECs), which provide relays for onboard flight computers to send signals to arm and fire pyrotechnics that separate the solid rockets and external tank during assent. Both E-MECs are needed for the Shuttle to be cleared for flight. Currently Endeavour and Columbia are the only two orbiters with the E-MECs. Built by Rockwell's Satellite Space Electronics Division, Anaheim, Calif., each unit weighs 65 pounds and is approximately 20 inches long, 13 inches wide and 8 inches tall. Previously, three Shuttle flights have been scrubbed or delayed due to faulty MECs: STS-73, STS-49 and STS-41-D. The next scheduled date for launch of STS-99 is Feb. 11 at 12:30 p.m. EST.

  17. The faulty Master Events Controller is removed from STS-99 Endeavour

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000-01-01

    Technicians remove a faulty Enhanced Main Events Controller (E- MEC) from Shuttle Endeavour at Launch Pad 39A. The E-MEC became suspect during the Jan. 31 launch countdown and mission STS-99 was delayed when NASA managers decided to replace it. Each Shuttle carries two enhanced master events controllers (E-MECs), which provide relays for onboard flight computers to send signals to arm and fire pyrotechnics that separate the solid rockets and external tank during assent. Both E-MECs are needed for the Shuttle to be cleared for flight. Currently Endeavour and Columbia are the only two orbiters with the E-MECs. Built by Rockwell's Satellite Space Electronics Division, Anaheim, Calif., each unit weighs 65 pounds and is approximately 20 inches long, 13 inches wide and 8 inches tall. Previously, three Shuttle flights have been scrubbed or delayed due to faulty MECs: STS-73, STS-49 and STS-41-D. The next scheduled date for launch of STS-99 is Feb. 11 at 12:30 p.m. EST.

  18. PENENTUAN FAKTOR YANG BERPENGARUH DALAM FAULTY BEHAVIOR RISK MELALUI PENDEKATAN METODE FUZZY ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rizal Irfan Fuadi

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Manajemen keselamatan merupakan pengorganisasian, sumber daya manusia, kebijakan dan prosedur interaktif yang bertujuan untuk mengurangi kemungkinan kerusakan dan kerugian di tempat kerja. Salah satu cara untuk memperbaiki manajemen keselamatan di perusahaan adalah dengan melakukan penelitian mengenai faktor yang berpengaruh dalam risiko kesalahan perilaku. Secara umum, faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi keselamatan kerja tidak memiliki struktur fisik. Untuk itu, maka masalah pada kondisi nyata dapat direpresentasikan dengan cara yang lebih baik menggunakan angka fuzzy untuk mengevaluasi faktor-faktor ini. Pada penelitian ini, pendekatan Fuzzy AHP bertujuan untuk menentukan tingkat Faulty Behavior Risk (FBR pada sistem kerja.Penentuan faktor yang berpengaruh dalam Faulty Behavior Risk (FBR/risiko dari perilaku yang salah dimulai dengan menentukan responden, penyusunan kuesioner, uji validitas dan reliabilitas, hasil dari kuesioner dijadikan inputan dalam pengolahan data dengan metode FuzzyAnalytic Hierachy Process (FAHP. Kuesioner ini dibuat berdasarkan konsep safety management yang terdiri dari 4 faktor, yaitu faktor organisasi, faktor pribadi, faktor pekerjaan dan faktor lingkungan. Penelitian ini dilakukan pada Bay 2.1 yang memproduksi panel dan bay 7.1 yang memproduksi finning. Berdasarkan perhitungan FBR pada bay 2.1 menunjukkan nilai 0,4793 yang berarti risiko kesalahan perilaku di antara batas bawah (0,25 dan batas atas (0,50. Sedangkan pada bay 7.1 sebesar 0,5317 yang berarti risiko kesalahan perilaku memiliki potensi tinggi karena berada di atas batas atas. Dari hasil penentuan FBR didapatkan nilai  pada bay 2.1 yang memiliki risiko penyebab tertinggi terdapat pada sub faktor kurang persiapan (0,0788 sedangkan pada bay 7.1 dengan nilai FBR sebesar 0,5317 yang memiliki risiko tertinggi terdapat pada sub faktor kelelahan kerja (0,0970. Melalui penelitian ini, faktor penyebab kesalahan perilaku kerja dapat diketahui dan diberikan

  19. Risk analysis of the LHC underground area fire risk due to faulty electrical equipment

    CERN Document Server

    Harrison, A

    2007-01-01

    The European Organisation for Nuclear Research (CERN) in Geneva, Switzerland, is currently building the latest generation of particle accelerators, the LHC (Large Hadron Collider). The machine is housed in a circular tunnel of 27 km of circumference and is situated approximately 100 metres beneath the surface astride the Franco-Swiss border. Electrically induced fires in the LHC are a major concern, since an incident could present a threat to CERN personnel as well as the public. Moreover, the loss of equipment would result in significant costs and downtime. However, the amount of electrical equipment in the underground area required for operation, supervision and control of the machine is essential. Thus the present thesis is assessing the risk of fire due to faulty electrical equipment in both a qualitative as well as quantitative way. The recommendations following the qualitative analysis suggest the introduction of fire protection zones for the areas with the highest risk of fire due to a combination of p...

  20. The impact of faulty response of overload protection systems on the reliability of electricity supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schweigert, J.; Schnuerer, G.

    1988-01-01

    Protection equipment of the engineered safety system which is to prevent the triggering of actions via signals from the reactor protection system is to be made so reliable that it has no impact on the non-availability of the supplied systems. Design and functional mode of the various overload protection equipment and the relevant switching device and combinations are explained together with the requirements such as choice, design, and adjustment of the protection equipment, followed by a survey of possible causes of faulty response of overload protection device and of the means and measures available for improvement. The now presented version of September 1987 of the 'overload protection report deals basically with all main topics of the Juli 1985 version, but has been updated and extended by material taking into account practice-oriented data on the new developments in convoy power plant design. (orig./HP) [de

  1. Numerical Modeling of Methane Leakage from a Faulty Natural Gas Well into Fractured Tight Formations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moortgat, Joachim; Schwartz, Franklin W; Darrah, Thomas H

    2018-03-01

    Horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing have enabled hydrocarbon recovery from unconventional reservoirs, but led to natural gas contamination of shallow groundwaters. We describe and apply numerical models of gas-phase migration associated with leaking natural gas wells. Three leakage scenarios are simulated: (1) high-pressure natural gas pulse released into a fractured aquifer; (2) continuous slow leakage into a tilted fractured formation; and (3) continuous slow leakage into an unfractured aquifer with fluvial channels, to facilitate a generalized evaluation of natural gas transport from faulty natural gas wells. High-pressure pulses of gas leakage into sparsely fractured media are needed to produce the extensive and rapid lateral spreading of free gas previously observed in field studies. Transport in fractures explains how methane can travel vastly different distances and directions laterally away from a leaking well, which leads to variable levels of methane contamination in nearby groundwater wells. Lower rates of methane leakage (≤1 Mcf/day) produce shorter length scales of gas transport than determined by the high-pressure scenario or field studies, unless aquifers have low vertical permeabilities (≤1 millidarcy) and fractures and bedding planes have sufficient tilt (∼10°) to allow a lateral buoyancy component. Similarly, in fractured rock aquifers or where permeability is controlled by channelized fluvial deposits, lateral flow is not sufficiently developed to explain fast-developing gas contamination (0-3 months) or large length scales (∼1 km) documented in field studies. Thus, current efforts to evaluate the frequency, mechanism, and impacts of natural gas leakage from faulty natural gas wells likely underestimate contributions from small-volume, low-pressure leakage events. © 2018, National Ground Water Association.

  2. Identification of flood-rich and flood-poor periods in flood series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mediero, Luis; Santillán, David; Garrote, Luis

    2015-04-01

    Recently, a general concern about non-stationarity of flood series has arisen, as changes in catchment response can be driven by several factors, such as climatic and land-use changes. Several studies to detect trends in flood series at either national or trans-national scales have been conducted. Trends are usually detected by the Mann-Kendall test. However, the results of this test depend on the starting and ending year of the series, which can lead to different results in terms of the period considered. The results can be conditioned to flood-poor and flood-rich periods located at the beginning or end of the series. A methodology to identify statistically significant flood-rich and flood-poor periods is developed, based on the comparison between the expected sampling variability of floods when stationarity is assumed and the observed variability of floods in a given series. The methodology is applied to a set of long series of annual maximum floods, peaks over threshold and counts of annual occurrences in peaks over threshold series observed in Spain in the period 1942-2009. Mediero et al. (2014) found a general decreasing trend in flood series in some parts of Spain that could be caused by a flood-rich period observed in 1950-1970, placed at the beginning of the flood series. The results of this study support the findings of Mediero et al. (2014), as a flood-rich period in 1950-1970 was identified in most of the selected sites. References: Mediero, L., Santillán, D., Garrote, L., Granados, A. Detection and attribution of trends in magnitude, frequency and timing of floods in Spain, Journal of Hydrology, 517, 1072-1088, 2014.

  3. Effects of Flood Control Strategies on Flood Resilience Under Sociohydrological Disturbances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sung, Kyungmin; Jeong, Hanseok; Sangwan, Nikhil; Yu, David J.

    2018-04-01

    A community capacity to cope with flood hazards, or community flood resilience, emerges from the interplay of hydrological and social processes. This interplay can be significantly influenced by the flood control strategy adopted by a society, i.e., how a society sets its desired flood protection level and strives to achieve this goal. And this interplay can be further complicated by rising land-sea level differences, seasonal water level fluctuations, and economic change. But not much research has been done on how various forms of flood control strategies affect human-flood interactions under these disturbances and therefore flood resilience in the long run. The current study is an effort to address these issues by developing a conceptual model of human-flood interaction mediated by flood control strategies. Our model extends the existing model of Yu et al. (2017), who investigated the flood resilience of a community-based flood protection system in coastal Bangladesh. The major extensions made in this study are inclusions of various forms of flood control strategies (both adaptive and nonadaptive ones), the challenge of rising land-sea level differences, and various high tide level scenarios generated from modifying the statistical variances and averages. Our results show that adaptive forms of flood control strategies tend to outperform nonadaptive ones for maintaining the model community's flood protection system. Adaptive strategies that dynamically adjust target flood protection levels through close monitoring of flood damages and social memories of flood risk can help the model community deal with various disturbances.

  4. Modeling and rotor field-oriented control of a faulty three-phase induction motor based on GSA for tuning of PI controllers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jannati, Mohammad; Monadi, Ali; Nik Idris, Nik Rumzi

    2016-01-01

    This paper discusses the d-q model and winding function method (WFM) for modeling and a rotor eld-oriented control (RFOC) system for controlling a faulty three-phase induction motor (three-phase IM when one of the phases is disconnected). In the adapted scheme for controlling the faulty IM...

  5. Recent advances in flood forecasting and flood risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Arduino

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent large floods in Europe have led to increased interest in research and development of flood forecasting systems. Some of these events have been provoked by some of the wettest rainfall periods on record which has led to speculation that such extremes are attributable in some measure to anthropogenic global warming and represent the beginning of a period of higher flood frequency. Whilst current trends in extreme event statistics will be difficult to discern, conclusively, there has been a substantial increase in the frequency of high floods in the 20th century for basins greater than 2x105 km2. There is also increasing that anthropogenic forcing of climate change may lead to an increased probability of extreme precipitation and, hence, of flooding. There is, therefore, major emphasis on the improvement of operational flood forecasting systems in Europe, with significant European Community spending on research and development on prototype forecasting systems and flood risk management projects. This Special Issue synthesises the most relevant scientific and technological results presented at the International Conference on Flood Forecasting in Europe held in Rotterdam from 3-5 March 2003. During that meeting 150 scientists, forecasters and stakeholders from four continents assembled to present their work and current operational best practice and to discuss future directions of scientific and technological efforts in flood prediction and prevention. The papers presented at the conference fall into seven themes, as follows.

  6. Assessment of MPPT Techniques During the Faulty Conditions of PV System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bhukya Krishna Naick

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The contribution of Distributed Generation (DG systems like wind energy systems and solar Photovoltaic (PV systems on the generation of electricity has increased. Out of these DG systems, the PV systems have gained wide popularity, because of the availability of solar energy throughout the day. Depending on the size of PV installations, a large number of PV modules can be interconnected in the form of series and parallel connection. Since a large number of modules are interconnected, it is possible for the faults in a PV array to occur due to the failure of protection system, which can cause damage to the PV module and also the decrease in the output power. This paper presents the tracking of a maximum power point under the faulty conditions of 12x5 PV array. The fault conditions that have been considered in the PV array are open circuit fault, line to ground, line to line and failure of bypass diodes. Perturb and observe, incremental conductance and fuzzy logic controller are the maximum power point tracking techniques that have been implemented. For each of the fault conditions, the results have been presented in terms of the maximum power tracked, tracking time and tracking efficiency.

  7. Methods to detect faulty splices in the superconducting magnet system of the LHC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bailey, R.; Bellesia, B.; Lasheras, N.Catalan; Dahlerup-Petersen, K.; Denz, R.; Robles, C.; Koratzinos, M.; Pojer, M.; Ponce, L.; Saban, R.; Schmidt, R.

    2009-01-01

    The incident of 19 September 2008 at the LHC was caused by a faulty inter-magnet splice of about 200 n(Omega) resistance. Cryogenic and electrical techniques have been developed to detect other abnormal splices, either between or inside the magnets. The existing quench protection system can be used to detect internal splices with R > 20 n(Omega). Since this system does not cover the bus between magnets, the cryogenic system is used to measure the rate of temperature rise due to ohmic heating. Accuracy of a few mK/h, corresponding to a few Watts, has been achieved, allowing detection of excess resistance, if it is more than 40 n(Omega) in a cryogenic subsector (two optical cells). Follow-up electrical measurements are made in regions identified by the cryogenic system. These techniques have detected two abnormal internal magnet splices of 100 n(Omega) and 50 n(Omega) respectively. In 2009, this ad hoc system will be replaced with a permanent one to monitor all splices at the n(Omega) level

  8. Methods to detect faulty splices in the superconducting magnet system of the LHC

    CERN Document Server

    Bailey, R; Catalan Lasheras, N; Dahlerup-Petersen, K; Denz, R; Robles, C; Koratzinos, M; Pojer, M; Ponce, L; Saban, R; Schmidt, R; Siemko, A; Solfaroli Camillocci, M; Thiesen, H; Vergara Fernandez, A; Flora, R H; Charifoulline, Z; Bednarek, M; Górnicki, E; Jurkiewicz, P; Kapusta, P; Strait, J

    2010-01-01

    The incident of 19 September 2008 at the LHC was caused by a faulty inter-magnet splice of about 200 nΩ resistance. Cryogenic and electrical techniques have been developed to detect other abnormal splices, either between or inside the magnets. The existing quench protection system can be used to detect internal splices with R>20 nΩ. Since this system does not cover the bus between magnets, the cryogenic system is used to measure the rate of temperature rise due to ohmic heating. Accuracy of a few mK/h, corresponding to a few Watts, has been achieved, allowing detection of excess resistance, if it is more than 40 nΩ in a cryogenic subsector (two optical cells). Follow-up electrical measurements are made in regions identified by the cryogenic system. These techniques have detected two abnormal internal magnet splices of 100 nΩ and 50 nΩ respectively. In 2009, this ad hoc system will be replaced with a permanent one to monitor all splices at the nΩ level.

  9. Design and Analysis of Adaptive Message Coding on LDPC Decoder with Faulty Storage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangjun Ge

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Unreliable message storage severely degrades the performance of LDPC decoders. This paper discusses the impacts of message errors on LDPC decoders and schemes improving the robustness. Firstly, we develop a discrete density evolution analysis for faulty LDPC decoders, which indicates that protecting the sign bits of messages is effective enough for finite-precision LDPC decoders. Secondly, we analyze the effects of quantization precision loss for static sign bit protection and propose an embedded dynamic coding scheme by adaptively employing the least significant bits (LSBs to protect the sign bits. Thirdly, we give a construction of Hamming product code for the adaptive coding and present low complexity decoding algorithms. Theoretic analysis indicates that the proposed scheme outperforms traditional triple modular redundancy (TMR scheme in decoding both threshold and residual errors, while Monte Carlo simulations show that the performance loss is less than 0.2 dB when the storage error probability varies from 10-3 to 10-4.

  10. Synchronization of faulty processors in coarse-grained TMR protected partially reconfigurable FPGA designs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kretzschmar, U.; Gomez-Cornejo, J.; Astarloa, A.; Bidarte, U.; Ser, J. Del

    2016-01-01

    The expansion of FPGA technology in numerous application fields is a fact. Single Event Effects (SEE) are a critical factor for the reliability of FPGA based systems. For this reason, a number of researches have been studying fault tolerance techniques to harden different elements of FPGA designs. Using Partial Reconfiguration (PR) in conjunction with Triple Modular Redundancy (TMR) is an emerging approach in recent publications dealing with the implementation of fault tolerant processors on SRAM-based FPGAs. While these works pay great attention to the repair of erroneous instances by means of reconfiguration, the essential step of synchronizing the repaired processors is insufficiently addressed. In this context, this paper poses four different synchronization approaches for soft core processors, which balance differently the trade-off between synchronization speed and hardware overhead. All approaches are assessed in practice by synchronizing TMR protected PicoBlaze processors implemented on a Virtex-5 FPGA. Nevertheless all methods are of a general nature and can be applied for different processor architectures in a straightforward fashion. - Highlights: • Four different synchronization methods for faulty processors are proposed. • The methods balance between synchronization speed and hardware overhead. • They can be applied to TMR-protected reconfigurable FPGA designs. • The proposed schemes are implemented and tested in real hardware.

  11. Glaucoma patients demonstrate faulty autoregulation of ocular blood flow during posture change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, D.; Harris, A.; Garrett, M.; Chung, H. S.; Kagemann, L.

    1999-01-01

    BACKGROUND/AIMS—Autoregulation of blood flow during posture change is important to ensure consistent organ circulation. The purpose of this study was to compare the change in retrobulbar ocular blood flow in glaucoma patients with normal subjects during supine and upright posture.
METHODS—20 open angle glaucoma patients and 20 normal subjects, similar in age and sex distribution, were evaluated. Blood pressure, intraocular pressure, and retrobulbar blood velocity were tested after 30 minutes of sitting and again after 30 minutes of lying. Retrobulbar haemodynamic measures of peak systolic velocity (PSV), end diastolic velocity (EDV), and resistance index (RI) were obtained in the ophthalmic and central retinal arteries using colour Doppler imaging (CDI).
RESULTS—When changing from the upright to supine posture, normal subjects demonstrated a significant increase in OA EDV (p = 0.016) and significant decrease in OA RI (p = 0.0006) and CRA RI (p = 0.016). Glaucoma patients demonstrated similar changes in OA measures of EDV (p = 0.02) and RI (p = 0.04), but no change in CRA measures.
CONCLUSION—Glaucoma patients exhibit faulty autoregulation of central retinal artery blood flow during posture change.

 PMID:10381668

  12. Floods in Serbia in the 1999-2009 period: Hydrological analysis and flood protection measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milanović Ana

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The review on greatest floods recorded in Vojvodina and central Serbia within the period from 1999 to 2009 is given in this paper. For 13 hydrological stations, that recorded the greatest floods for the present period, probability of occurrence of these floods has been accomplished. Based on analysis of time series of discharge and water level maximum, performed by applying probability theory and mathematical statistics, and calculated theoretical probability distribution function of floods, probability of occurrence of flood has been obtained. Most often the best agreement with the empirical distribution function had a Log-Pearson III, Pearson III distribution. These results can be used for dimensioning of hydro-technical objects for flood protection. The most significant causes for floods recorded in this period were melting of snow and intensive rainfall. In this paper the current situation of flood protection and future development of flood protection measures were also presented. .

  13. NWS Weather Fatality, Injury and Damage Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Weather Awareness Floods, Wind Chill, Tornadoes, Heat... Education Weather Terms, Teachers, Statistics government web resources and services. Natural Hazard Statistics Statistics U.S. Summaries 78-Year List of Severe Weather Fatalities Preliminary Hazardous Weather Statistics for 2017 Now

  14. Design basis flood for nuclear power plants on river sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    The Guide presents techniques for determining the design basis flood (DBF) to be used for siting nuclear power plants at or near non-tidal reaches of rivers and for protecting nuclear power plants against floods. Since flooding of a nuclear power plant can have repercussions on safety, the DBF is always chosen to have a very low probability of exceedance per annum. The DBF may result from one or more of the following causes: (1) Precipitation, snowmelt; (2) Failure of water control structures, either from seismic or hydrological causes or from faulty operation of these structures; (3) Channel obstruction such as landslide, ice effects, log or debris jams, and effects of vulcanism. Normally the DBF is not less than any recorded or historical flood occurrence. For flood evaluation two types of methods are discussed in this Guide: probabilistic and deterministic. Simple probabilistic methods to determine floods of such low exceedance probability have a great degree of uncertainty and are presented for use only during the site survey. However, the more sophisticated probabilistic methods, the so-called stochastic methods, may give an acceptable result, as outlined in this Guide. The preferred method of evaluating the component of the DBF due to precipitation, as described in this Guide, is the deterministic one, based on the concept of a limit to the probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and on the unit hydrograph technique. Dam failures may generate a flood substantially more severe than that due to precipitation. The methodology for evaluating these types of floods is therefore presented in this Guide. Making allowance for the possible simultaneous occurrence of two or more important flood-producing events is also discussed here. The Guide does not deal with floods caused by sabotage

  15. Impacts of climate change and socio-economic scenarios on flow and water quality of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM) river systems: low flow and flood statistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitehead, P G; Barbour, E; Futter, M N; Sarkar, S; Rodda, H; Caesar, J; Butterfield, D; Jin, L; Sinha, R; Nicholls, R; Salehin, M

    2015-06-01

    The potential impacts of climate change and socio-economic change on flow and water quality in rivers worldwide is a key area of interest. The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) is one of the largest river basins in the world serving a population of over 650 million, and is of vital concern to India and Bangladesh as it provides fresh water for people, agriculture, industry, conservation and for the delta system downstream. This paper seeks to assess future changes in flow and water quality utilising a modelling approach as a means of assessment in a very complex system. The INCA-N model has been applied to the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna river systems to simulate flow and water quality along the rivers under a range of future climate conditions. Three model realisations of the Met Office Hadley Centre global and regional climate models were selected from 17 perturbed model runs to evaluate a range of potential futures in climate. In addition, the models have also been evaluated using socio-economic scenarios, comprising (1) a business as usual future, (2) a more sustainable future, and (3) a less sustainable future. Model results for the 2050s and the 2090s indicate a significant increase in monsoon flows under the future climates, with enhanced flood potential. Low flows are predicted to fall with extended drought periods, which could have impacts on water and sediment supply, irrigated agriculture and saline intrusion. In contrast, the socio-economic changes had relatively little impact on flows, except under the low flow regimes where increased irrigation could further reduce water availability. However, should large scale water transfers upstream of Bangladesh be constructed, these have the potential to reduce flows and divert water away from the delta region depending on the volume and timing of the transfers. This could have significant implications for the delta in terms of saline intrusion, water supply, agriculture and maintaining crucial ecosystems such

  16. Characterising Record Flooding in the United Kingdom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, A.; Bates, P. D.; Smith, J. A.

    2017-12-01

    Though the most notable floods in history have been carefully explained, there remains a lack of literature that explores the nature of record floods as a whole in the United Kingdom. We characterise the seasonality, statistical and spatial distribution, and meteorological causes of peak river flows for 521 gauging stations spread across the British Isles. We use annual maximum data from the National River Flow Archive, catchment descriptors from the Flood Estimation Handbook, and historical records of large floods. What we aim to find is in what ways, if any, the record flood for a station is different from more 'typical' floods. For each station, we calculate two indices: the seasonal anomaly and the flood index. Broadly, the seasonal anomaly is the degree to which a station's record flood happens at a different time of year compared to typical floods at that site, whilst the flood index is a station's record flood discharge divided by the discharge of the 1-in-10-year return period event. We find that while annual maximum peaks are dominated by winter frontal rainfall, record floods are disproportionately caused by summer convective rainfall. This analysis also shows that the larger the seasonal anomaly, the higher the flood index. Additionally, stations across the country have record floods that occur in the summer with no notable spatial pattern, yet the most seasonally anomalous record events are concentrated around the south and west of the British Isles. Catchment descriptors tell us little about the flood index at a particular station, but generally areas with lower mean annual precipitation have a higher flood index. The inclusion of case studies from recent and historical examples of notable floods across the UK supplements our analysis and gives insight into how typical these events are, both statistically and meteorologically. Ultimately, record floods in general happen at relatively unexpected times and with unpredictable magnitudes, which is a

  17. Flood Response System—A Case Study

    OpenAIRE

    Yogesh Kumar Singh; Upasana Dutta; T. S. Murugesh Prabhu; I. Prabu; Jitendra Mhatre; Manoj Khare; Sandeep Srivastava; Subasisha Dutta

    2017-01-01

    Flood Response System (FRS) is a network-enabled solution developed using open-source software. The system has query based flood damage assessment modules with outputs in the form of spatial maps and statistical databases. FRS effectively facilitates the management of post-disaster activities caused due to flood, like displaying spatial maps of area affected, inundated roads, etc., and maintains a steady flow of information at all levels with different access rights depending upon the critica...

  18. Assessment of a pressurizer spray valve faulty opening transient at Asco Nuclear Power Plant with RELAP5/MOD2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reventos, F.; Baptista, J.S.; Navas, A.P.; Moreno, P.

    1993-12-01

    The Asociacion Nuclear Asco has prepared a model of Asco NPP using RELAP5/MOD2. This model, which include thermalhydraulics, kinetics and protection and controls, has been qualified in previous calculations of several actual plant transients. One of the transients of the qualification process is a ''Pressurizer spray valve faulty opening'' presented in this report. It consists in a primary coolant depressurization that causes the reactor trip by overtemperature and later on the actuation of the safety injection. The results are in close agreement with plant data

  19. Composite Flood Risk for Virgin Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Composite Flood Risk layer combines flood hazard datasets from Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood zones, NOAA's Shallow Coastal Flooding, and the National Hurricane Center SLOSH model for Storm Surge inundation for category 1, 2, and 3 hurricanes.Geographic areas are represented by a grid of 10 by 10 meter cells and each cell has a ranking based on variation in exposure to flooding hazards: Moderate, High and Extreme exposure. Geographic areas in each input layers are ranked based on their probability of flood risk exposure. The logic was such that areas exposed to flooding on a more frequent basis were given a higher ranking. Thus the ranking incorporates the probability of the area being flooded. For example, even though a Category 3 storm surge has higher flooding elevations, the likelihood of the occurrence is lower than a Category 1 storm surge and therefore the Category 3 flood area is given a lower exposure ranking. Extreme exposure areas are those areas that are exposed to relatively frequent flooding.The ranked input layers are then converted to a raster for the creation of the composite risk layer by using cell statistics in spatial analysis. The highest exposure ranking for a given cell in any of the three input layers is assigned to the corresponding cell in the composite layer.For example, if an area (a cell) is rank as medium in the FEMA layer, moderate in the SLOSH layer, but extreme in the SCF layer, the cell will be considere

  20. Flood model for Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palán, Ladislav; Punčochář, Petr

    2017-04-01

    Looking on the impact of flooding from the World-wide perspective, in last 50 years flooding has caused over 460,000 fatalities and caused serious material damage. Combining economic loss from ten costliest flood events (from the same period) returns a loss (in the present value) exceeding 300bn USD. Locally, in Brazil, flood is the most damaging natural peril with alarming increase of events frequencies as 5 out of the 10 biggest flood losses ever recorded have occurred after 2009. The amount of economic and insured losses particularly caused by various flood types was the key driver of the local probabilistic flood model development. Considering the area of Brazil (being 5th biggest country in the World) and the scattered distribution of insured exposure, a domain covered by the model was limited to the entire state of Sao Paolo and 53 additional regions. The model quantifies losses on approx. 90 % of exposure (for regular property lines) of key insurers. Based on detailed exposure analysis, Impact Forecasting has developed this tool using long term local hydrological data series (Agencia Nacional de Aguas) from riverine gauge stations and digital elevation model (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística). To provide most accurate representation of local hydrological behaviour needed for the nature of probabilistic simulation, a hydrological data processing focused on frequency analyses of seasonal peak flows - done by fitting appropriate extreme value statistical distribution and stochastic event set generation consisting of synthetically derived flood events respecting realistic spatial and frequency patterns visible in entire period of hydrological observation. Data were tested for homogeneity, consistency and for any significant breakpoint occurrence in time series so the entire observation or only its subparts were used for further analysis. The realistic spatial patterns of stochastic events are reproduced through the innovative use of d-vine copula

  1. Faulty node detection in wireless sensor networks using a recurrent neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atiga, Jamila; Mbarki, Nour Elhouda; Ejbali, Ridha; Zaied, Mourad

    2018-04-01

    The wireless sensor networks (WSN) consist of a set of sensors that are more and more used in surveillance applications on a large scale in different areas: military, Environment, Health ... etc. Despite the minimization and the reduction of the manufacturing costs of the sensors, they can operate in places difficult to access without the possibility of reloading of battery, they generally have limited resources in terms of power of emission, of processing capacity, data storage and energy. These sensors can be used in a hostile environment, such as, for example, on a field of battle, in the presence of fires, floods, earthquakes. In these environments the sensors can fail, even in a normal operation. It is therefore necessary to develop algorithms tolerant and detection of defects of the nodes for the network of sensor without wires, therefore, the faults of the sensor can reduce the quality of the surveillance if they are not detected. The values that are measured by the sensors are used to estimate the state of the monitored area. We used the Non-linear Auto- Regressive with eXogeneous (NARX), the recursive architecture of the neural network, to predict the state of a node of a sensor from the previous values described by the functions of time series. The experimental results have verified that the prediction of the State is enhanced by our proposed model.

  2. A Hybrid Approach for Evaluating Faulty Behavior Risk of High-Risk Operations Using ANP and Evidence Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xia-Zhong Zheng

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Hydropower project construction is a high-risk operation, where accidents occur frequently. Moreover, the factors leading to accidents are often human factors, so safety evaluation of these factors for the hydropower projects’ work system is very significant. The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS framework is applied to build evaluation system. In the evaluation process, correlation analysis is used to form the intercriteria analysis matrix that helps the decision makers to build impact relation matrix. Factor weights are calculated by the Analytic Network Process (ANP. In the index value determination step, the evidence theory is used to eliminate the conflicts of three decision makers and the index values are then calculated. The faulty behavior risk (FBR assessment value is finally obtained. The proposed method is practical and its applicability is proved by an example.

  3. Flood Response System—A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yogesh Kumar Singh

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Flood Response System (FRS is a network-enabled solution developed using open-source software. The system has query based flood damage assessment modules with outputs in the form of spatial maps and statistical databases. FRS effectively facilitates the management of post-disaster activities caused due to flood, like displaying spatial maps of area affected, inundated roads, etc., and maintains a steady flow of information at all levels with different access rights depending upon the criticality of the information. It is designed to facilitate users in managing information related to flooding during critical flood seasons and analyzing the extent of damage. The inputs to FRS are provided using two components: (1 a semi-automated application developed indigenously, to delineate inundated areas for Near-Real Time Flood Monitoring using Active Microwave Remote Sensing data and (2 a two-dimensional (2D hydrodynamic river model generated outputs for water depth and velocity in flooded areas for an embankment breach scenario. The 2D Hydrodynamic model, CCHE2D (Center for Computational Hydroscience and Engineering Two-Dimensional model, was used to simulate an area of 600 km2 in the flood-prone zone of the Brahmaputra basin. The resultant inundated area from the model was found to be 85% accurate when validated with post-flood optical satellite data.

  4. Flaws and fallacies in statistical thinking

    CERN Document Server

    Campbell, Stephen K

    2004-01-01

    This book was written with a dual purpose: first, the author was motivated to relieve his distress over the faulty conclusions drawn from the frequent misuse of relatively simple statistical tools such as percents, graphs, and averages. Second, his objective was to create a nontechnical book that would help people make better-informed decisions by increasing their ability to judge the quality of statistical evidence. This volume achieves both, serving as a supplemental text for students taking their first course in statistics, and as a self-help guide for anyone wishing to evaluate statistica

  5. Flooding and Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Clearinghouse for Educational Facilities, 2011

    2011-01-01

    According to the Federal Emergency Management Agency, flooding is the nation's most common natural disaster. Some floods develop slowly during an extended period of rain or in a warming trend following a heavy snow. Flash floods can occur quickly, without any visible sign of rain. Catastrophic floods are associated with burst dams and levees,…

  6. Identification and classification of Serbia's historic floods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prohaska Stevan

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available River flooding in Serbia is a natural phenomenon which largely exceeds the scope of water management and hydraulic engineering, and has considerable impact on the development of Serbian society. Today, the importance and value of areas threatened by floods are among the key considerations of sustainable development. As a result, flood protection techniques and procedures need to be continually refined and updated, following innovations in the fields of science and technology. Knowledge of high flows is key for sizing hydraulic structures and for gauging the cost-effectiveness and safety of the component structures of flood protection systems. However, sizing of hydraulic structures based on computed high flows does not ensure absolute safety; there is a residual flood risk and a risk of structural failure, if a flood exceeds computed levels. In hydrological practice, such floods are often referred to as historic/loads. The goal of this paper is to present a calculation procedure for the objective identification of historic floods, using long, multiple-year series of data on high flows of natural watercourses in Serbia. At its current stage of development, the calculation procedure is based on maximum annual discharges recorded at key monitoring stations of the Hydro-Meteorological Service of Serbia (HMS Serbia. When applied, the procedure results in the identification of specific historic maximum stages/floods (if any at all gauge sites included in the analysis. The probabilistic theory is then applied to assess the statistical significance of each identified historic flood and to classify the historic flood, as appropriate. At the end of the paper, the results of the applied methodology are shown in tabular and graphic form for various Serbian rivers. All identified historic floods are ranked based on their probability of occurrence (i.e., return period.

  7. Floods and climate: emerging perspectives for flood risk assessment and management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Merz, B.; Aerts, J.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2014-01-01

    context of floods. We come to the following conclusions: (1) extending the traditional system boundaries (local catchment, recent decades, hydrological/hydraulic processes) opens up exciting possibilities for better understanding and improved tools for flood risk assessment and management. (2) Statistical......, and this variation may be partially quantifiable and predictable, with the perspective of dynamic, climate-informed flood risk management. (4) Efforts are needed to fully account for factors that contribute to changes in all three risk components (hazard, exposure, vulnerability) and to better understand......Flood estimation and flood management have traditionally been the domain of hydrologists, water resources engineers and statisticians, and disciplinary approaches abound. Dominant views have been shaped; one example is the catchment perspective: floods are formed and influenced by the interaction...

  8. Flood-rich and flood-poor periods in Spain in 1942-2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mediero, Luis; Santillán, David; Garrote, Luis

    2016-04-01

    Several studies to detect trends in flood series at either national or trans-national scales have been conducted. Mediero et al. (2015) studied flood trends by using the longest streamflow records available in Europe. They found a decreasing trend in the Atlantic, Continental and Scandinavian regions. More specifically, Mediero et al. (2014) found a general decreasing trend in flood series in Spain in the period 1959-2009. Trends in flood series are usually detected by the Mann-Kendall test applied to a given period. However, the result of the Mann-Kendall test can change in terms of the starting and ending year of the series. Flood oscillations can occur and flood-rich and flood-poor periods could condition the results, especially when they are located at the beginning or end of the series. A methodology to identify statistically significant flood-rich and flood-poor periods is developed, based on the comparison between the expected sampling variability of floods when stationarity is assumed and the observed variability of floods in a given series. The methodology is applied to the longest series of annual maximum floods, peaks over threshold and counts of annual occurrences in peaks over threshold series observed in Spain in the period 1942-2009. A flood-rich period in 1950-1970 and a flood-poor period in 1970-1990 are identified in most of the selected sites. The generalised decreasing trend in flood series found by Mediero et al. (2014) could be explained by a flood-rich period placed at the beginning of the series and a flood-poor period located at the end of the series. References: Mediero, L., Kjeldsen, T.R., Macdonald, N., Kohnova, S., Merz, B., Vorogushyn, S., Wilson, D., Alburquerque, T., Blöschl, G., Bogdanowicz, E., Castellarin, A., Hall, J., Kobold, M., Kriauciuniene, J., Lang, M., Madsen, H., Onuşluel Gül, G., Perdigão, R.A.P., Roald, L.A., Salinas, J.L., Toumazis, A.D., Veijalainen, N., Óðinn Þórarinsson. Identification of coherent flood

  9. Social media for disaster response during floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eilander, D.; van de Vries, C.; Baart, F.; van Swol, R.; Wagemaker, J.; van Loenen, A.

    2015-12-01

    During floods it is difficult to obtain real-time accurate information about the extent and severity of the hazard. This information is very important for disaster risk reduction management and crisis relief organizations. Currently, real-time information is derived from few sources such as field reports, traffic camera's, satellite images and areal images. However, getting a real-time and accurate picture of the situation on the ground remains difficult. At the same time, people affected by natural hazards increasingly share their observations and their needs through digital media. Unlike conventional monitoring systems, Twitter data contains a relatively large number of real-time ground truth observations representing both physical hazard characteristics and hazard impacts. In the city of Jakarta, Indonesia, the intensity of unique flood related tweets during a flood event, peaked at almost 900 tweets per minute during floods in early 2015. Flood events around the world in 2014/2015 yielded large numbers of flood related tweets: from Philippines (85.000) to Pakistan (82.000) to South-Korea (50.000) to Detroit (20.000). The challenge here is to filter out useful content from this cloud of data, validate these observations and convert them to readily usable information. In Jakarta, flood related tweets often contain information about the flood depth. In a pilot we showed that this type of information can be used for real-time mapping of the flood extent by plotting these observations on a Digital Elevation Model. Uncertainties in the observations were taken into account by assigning a probability to each observation indicating its likelihood to be correct based on statistical analysis of the total population of tweets. The resulting flood maps proved to be correct for about 75% of the neighborhoods in Jakarta. Further cross-validation of flood related tweets against (hydro-) meteorological data is to likely improve the skill of the method.

  10. Flood frequency analysis of historical flood data under stationary and non-stationary modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machado, M. J.; Botero, B. A.; López, J.; Francés, F.; Díez-Herrero, A.; Benito, G.

    2015-06-01

    Historical records are an important source of information on extreme and rare floods and fundamental to establish a reliable flood return frequency. The use of long historical records for flood frequency analysis brings in the question of flood stationarity, since climatic and land-use conditions can affect the relevance of past flooding as a predictor of future flooding. In this paper, a detailed 400 yr flood record from the Tagus River in Aranjuez (central Spain) was analysed under stationary and non-stationary flood frequency approaches, to assess their contribution within hazard studies. Historical flood records in Aranjuez were obtained from documents (Proceedings of the City Council, diaries, chronicles, memoirs, etc.), epigraphic marks, and indirect historical sources and reports. The water levels associated with different floods (derived from descriptions or epigraphic marks) were computed into discharge values using a one-dimensional hydraulic model. Secular variations in flood magnitude and frequency, found to respond to climate and environmental drivers, showed a good correlation between high values of historical flood discharges and a negative mode of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Over the systematic gauge record (1913-2008), an abrupt change on flood magnitude was produced in 1957 due to constructions of three major reservoirs in the Tagus headwaters (Bolarque, Entrepeñas and Buendia) controlling 80% of the watershed surface draining to Aranjuez. Two different models were used for the flood frequency analysis: (a) a stationary model estimating statistical distributions incorporating imprecise and categorical data based on maximum likelihood estimators, and (b) a time-varying model based on "generalized additive models for location, scale and shape" (GAMLSS) modelling, which incorporates external covariates related to climate variability (NAO index) and catchment hydrology factors (in this paper a reservoir index; RI). Flood frequency

  11. Towards Multimodal Error Management:Experimental Evaluation of User Strategies in Event of Faulty Application Behavior in Automotive Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregor McGlaun

    2004-10-01

    Full Text Available In this work, we present the results of a study analyzing the reactions of subjects on simulated errors of a dedicated in-car interface for controlling infotainment and communication services. The test persons could operate the system, using different input modalities, such as natural or command speech as well as head and hand gestures, or classical tactile paradigms. In various situational contexts, we scrutinized the interaction patterns the test participants applied to overcome different operation tasks. Moreover, we evaluated individual user behavior concerning modality transitions and individual fallback strategies in case of system errors. Two different error types (Hidden System Errors and Apparent System Errors were provoked. As a result, we found out that initially, i.e. with the system working properly, most users prefer tactile or speech interaction. In case of Hidden System Errors, mostly changes from speech to tactile interaction and vice versa occurred. Concerning Apparent System Errors, 87% of the subjects automatically interrupted or cancelled their input procedure. 73% of all test persons who continued interaction, when the reason for the faulty system behavior was gone, strictly kept the selected modality. Regarding the given input vocabulary, none of the subjects selected head or hand gesture input as the leading fallback modality.

  12. The index-flood and the GRADEX methods combination for flood frequency analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuentes, Diana; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Quesada, Beatriz; Xu, Chong-Yu; Halldin, Sven; Beven, Keith

    2017-04-01

    Flood frequency analysis is used in many applications, including flood risk management, design of hydraulic structures, and urban planning. However, such analysis requires of long series of observed discharge data which are often not available in many basins around the world. In this study, we tested the usefulness of combining regional discharge and local precipitation data to estimate the event flood volume frequency curve for 63 catchments in Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean. This was achieved by combining two existing flood frequency analysis methods, the regionalization index-flood approach with the GRADEX method. For up to 10-years return period, similar shape of the scaled flood frequency curve for catchments with similar flood behaviour was assumed from the index-flood approach. For return periods larger than 10-years the probability distribution of rainfall and discharge volumes were assumed to be asymptotically and exponential-type functions with the same scale parameter from the GRADEX method. Results showed that if the mean annual flood (MAF), used as index-flood, is known, the index-flood approach performed well for up to 10 years return periods, resulting in 25% mean relative error in prediction. For larger return periods the prediction capability decreased but could be improved by the use of the GRADEX method. As the MAF is unknown at ungauged and short-period measured basins, we tested predicting the MAF using catchments climate-physical characteristics, and discharge statistics, the latter when observations were available for only 8 years. Only the use of discharge statistics resulted in acceptable predictions.

  13. Assessment of Three Flood Hazard Mapping Methods: A Case Study of Perlis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azizat, Nazirah; Omar, Wan Mohd Sabki Wan

    2018-03-01

    Flood is a common natural disaster and also affect the all state in Malaysia. Regarding to Drainage and Irrigation Department (DID) in 2007, about 29, 270 km2 or 9 percent of region of the country is prone to flooding. Flood can be such devastating catastrophic which can effected to people, economy and environment. Flood hazard mapping can be used is an important part in flood assessment to define those high risk area prone to flooding. The purposes of this study are to prepare a flood hazard mapping in Perlis and to evaluate flood hazard using frequency ratio, statistical index and Poisson method. The six factors affecting the occurrence of flood including elevation, distance from the drainage network, rainfall, soil texture, geology and erosion were created using ArcGIS 10.1 software. Flood location map in this study has been generated based on flooded area in year 2010 from DID. These parameters and flood location map were analysed to prepare flood hazard mapping in representing the probability of flood area. The results of the analysis were verified using flood location data in year 2013, 2014, 2015. The comparison result showed statistical index method is better in prediction of flood area rather than frequency ratio and Poisson method.

  14. Flood Hazard Area

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — The National Flood Hazard Layer (NFHL) data incorporates all Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map(DFIRM) databases published by FEMA, and any Letters Of Map Revision...

  15. Flood Hazard Boundaries

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — The National Flood Hazard Layer (NFHL) data incorporates all Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map(DFIRM) databases published by FEMA, and any Letters Of Map Revision...

  16. Base Flood Elevation

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — The National Flood Hazard Layer (NFHL) data incorporates all Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map(DFIRM) databases published by FEMA, and any Letters Of Map Revision...

  17. Changes in the timing and magnitude of floods in Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cunderlik, J.M.; Ouarda, T.B.M.J.

    2008-01-01

    It is expected that the global climate change will have significant impacts on the regime of hydrologic extremes. An increase in both the frequency and magnitude of hydrologic extremes is anticipated in the near future. As a consequence, the design and operation of water resource systems will have to adapt to the changing regime of hydrologic extremes. This study explores trends in the timing and magnitude of floods in natural streamflow gauging stations in Canada. The seasonality of floods is analyzed and the selected streamflow stations grouped into five flood seasonality regions. A common 30-year long observation period from 1974 to 2003 is used in the analysis to eliminate the effect of hydro-climatic variability in the timing and magnitude of floods resulting from different observation periods. The timing of floods is described in terms of directional statistics. A method is developed for analyzing trends in directional dates of flood occurrence that is not affected by the choice of zero direction. The magnitude of floods is analyzed by the annual maximum and peak-over-threshold methods. Trends in the timing and magnitude of floods are identified in each flood seasonality region using the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test, with a modification for auto-correlated data. The results show a good correspondence between the identified flood seasonality regions and the main terrestrial zones in Canada. Significant changes in the timing and magnitude of floods are found in the flood seasonality regions. (author)

  18. Flood Risk Regional Flood Defences : Technical report

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kok, M.; Jonkman, S.N.; Lendering, K.T.

    2015-01-01

    Historically the Netherlands have always had to deal with the threat of flooding, both from the rivers and the sea as well as from heavy rainfall. The country consists of a large amount of polders, which are low lying areas of land protected from flooding by embankments. These polders require an

  19. Effect of catchment properties and flood generation regime on copula selection for bivariate flood frequency analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filipova, Valeriya; Lawrence, Deborah; Klempe, Harald

    2018-02-01

    Applying copula-based bivariate flood frequency analysis is advantageous because the results provide information on both the flood peak and volume. More data are, however, required for such an analysis, and it is often the case that only data series with a limited record length are available. To overcome this issue of limited record length, data regarding climatic and geomorphological properties can be used to complement statistical methods. In this paper, we present a study of 27 catchments located throughout Norway, in which we assess whether catchment properties, flood generation processes and flood regime have an effect on the correlation between flood peak and volume and, in turn, on the selection of copulas. To achieve this, the annual maximum flood events were first classified into events generated primarily by rainfall, snowmelt or a combination of these. The catchments were then classified into flood regime, depending on the predominant flood generation process producing the annual maximum flood events. A contingency table and Fisher's exact test were used to determine the factors that affect the selection of copulas in the study area. The results show that the two-parameter copulas BB1 and BB7 are more commonly selected in catchments with high steepness, high mean annual runoff and rainfall flood regime. These findings suggest that in these types of catchments, the dependence structure between flood peak and volume is more complex and cannot be modeled effectively using a one-parameter copula. The results illustrate that by relating copula types to flood regime and catchment properties, additional information can be supplied for selecting copulas in catchments with limited data.

  20. Fragmented patterns of flood change across the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Archfield, Stacey A.; Hirsch, Robert M.; Viglione, A.; Blöschl, G.

    2016-01-01

    Trends in the peak magnitude, frequency, duration, and volume of frequent floods (floods occurring at an average of two events per year relative to a base period) across the United States show large changes; however, few trends are found to be statistically significant. The multidimensional behavior of flood change across the United States can be described by four distinct groups, with streamgages experiencing (1) minimal change, (2) increasing frequency, (3) decreasing frequency, or (4) increases in all flood properties. Yet group membership shows only weak geographic cohesion. Lack of geographic cohesion is further demonstrated by weak correlations between the temporal patterns of flood change and large-scale climate indices. These findings reveal a complex, fragmented pattern of flood change that, therefore, clouds the ability to make meaningful generalizations about flood change across the United States.

  1. Consistency of extreme flood estimation approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felder, Guido; Paquet, Emmanuel; Penot, David; Zischg, Andreas; Weingartner, Rolf

    2017-04-01

    Estimations of low-probability flood events are frequently used for the planning of infrastructure as well as for determining the dimensions of flood protection measures. There are several well-established methodical procedures to estimate low-probability floods. However, a global assessment of the consistency of these methods is difficult to achieve, the "true value" of an extreme flood being not observable. Anyway, a detailed comparison performed on a given case study brings useful information about the statistical and hydrological processes involved in different methods. In this study, the following three different approaches for estimating low-probability floods are compared: a purely statistical approach (ordinary extreme value statistics), a statistical approach based on stochastic rainfall-runoff simulation (SCHADEX method), and a deterministic approach (physically based PMF estimation). These methods are tested for two different Swiss catchments. The results and some intermediate variables are used for assessing potential strengths and weaknesses of each method, as well as for evaluating the consistency of these methods.

  2. Assessment of flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirano, J.; Dairaku, K.

    2013-12-01

    Flood is one of the most significant natural hazards in Japan. The Tokyo metropolitan area has been affected by several large flood disasters. Therefore, investigating potential flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area is important for development of adaptation strategy for future climate change. We aim to develop a method for evaluating flood risk in Tokyo Metropolitan area by considering effect of historical land use and land cover change, socio-economic change, and climatic change. Ministry of land, infrastructure, transport and tourism in Japan published 'Statistics of flood', which contains data for flood causes, number of damaged houses, area of wetted surface, and total amount of damage for each flood at small municipal level. By using these flood data, we estimated damage by inundation inside a levee for each prefecture based on a statistical method. On the basis of estimated damage, we developed flood risk curves in the Tokyo metropolitan area, representing relationship between damage and exceedance probability of flood for the period 1976-2008 for each prefecture. Based on the flood risk curve, we attempted evaluate potential flood risk in the Tokyo metropolitan area and clarify the cause for regional difference of flood risk. By analyzing flood risk curves, we found out regional differences of flood risk. We identified high flood risk in Tokyo and Saitama prefecture. On the other hand, flood risk was relatively low in Ibaraki and Chiba prefecture. We found that these regional differences of flood risk can be attributed to spatial distribution of entire property value and ratio of damaged housing units in each prefecture.We also attempted to evaluate influence of climate change on potential flood risk by considering variation of precipitation amount and precipitation intensity in the Tokyo metropolitan area. Results shows that we can evaluate potential impact of precipitation change on flood risk with high accuracy by using our methodology. Acknowledgments

  3. Métodos estadísticos para manejar el riesgo de inundaciones y cambio climático/Statistical Methods for Assessing Flood Risk and the Climate Change Challenge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jery R. Stedinger

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available El cambio climático real y potencial y la variabilidad del clima se convertirán en un desafío cada vez mayor para los hidrólogos, ingenieros civiles, y planeadores interesadosen los riesgos de inundación. En general, no conocemos el riesgo de inundación existente en áreas particulares debido a que los registros tienden a ser limitados. Hay mayor incertidumbre en cuanto a nuestros estimadores cuantiles de inundación –de lo que la gente se imagina–. Si además, para nuestros análisis, tenemos en cuenta la variabilidad climática histórica y el cambio climático, entonces lo que sabemos es aún menos. En muchos casos, ni siquiera está claro si el calentamiento global va a incrementar o a disminuir el riesgo de inundación. Así que el desafío es usar toda la información que tenemos sobre inundaciones pasadas y el clima futuro, junto con una profunda comprensión acerca de los procesos hidrológicos, para predecir los riesgos de inundación en el futuro.Actual and potential effects of climate change and climate variability will increasingly challenge hydrologists, civilengineers and planners concerned with flood risk. In general, it is difficult to understand flood risk in particularareas as available records tend to be limited. Our flood quantile estimators are more uncertain than people realize. If we recognize historical climate variability and climate change in our analyses, we will learn that we know even less. In many cases, it is not even clear whether global warming will increase or decrease flood risk. So the challenge is to use all the information available on past floods and future climate, along with a deep understanding of hydrologic processes, to forecast flood risk in the future.

  4. A robust predictive current controller for healthy and open-circuit faulty conditions of five-phase BLDC drives applicable for wind generators and electric vehicles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salehi Arashloo, Ramin; Salehifar, Mehdi; Romeral, Luis; Sala, Vicent

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Model predictive deadbeat control of generator stator phase currents. • Fault tolerant control of five-phase BLDC generator. • Control of stator phase currents under normal and open-circuit faulty conditions. • MATLAB simulation and experimental verification of proposed control method. • Verification of robustness and fast respond of proposed controlling method. - Abstract: Fault tolerant control of five-phase brushless direct current (BLDC) machines is gaining more importance in high-safety applications such as offshore wind generators and automotive industries. In many applications, traditional controllers (such as PI controllers) are used to control the stator currents under faulty conditions. These controllers have good performance with dc signals. However, in the case of missing one or two of the phases, appropriate reference currents of these machines have oscillatory dynamics both in phase- and synchronous-reference frames. Non-constant nature of these reference values requires the implication of fast current controllers. In this paper, model predictive deadbeat controllers are proposed to control the stator currents of five-phase BLDC machines under normal and faulty conditions. Open circuit fault is considered for both one and two stator phases, and the behaviour of proposed controlling method is evaluated. This evaluation is generally focused on first, sensitivity of proposed controlling method and second, its speed in following reference current values under transient states. Proposed method is simulated and is verified experimentally on a five-phase BLDC drive

  5. Efficiency Evaluation of Five-Phase Outer-Rotor Fault-Tolerant BLDC Drives under Healthy and Open-Circuit Faulty Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ARASHLOO, R. S.

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Fault tolerant motor drives are an interesting subject for many applications such as automotive industries and wind power generation. Among different configurations of these systems, five-phase BLDC drives are gaining more importance which is because of their compactness and high efficiency. Due to replacement of field windings by permanent magnets in their rotor structure, the main sources of power losses in these drives are iron (core losses, copper (winding losses, and inverter unit (semiconductor losses. Although low amplitude of power losses in five-phase BLDC drives is an important aspect for many applications, but their efficiency under faulty conditions is not considered in previous studies. In this paper, the efficiency of an outer-rotor five phase BLDC drive is evaluated under normal and different faulty conditions. Open-circuit fault is considered for one, two adjacent and two non-adjacent faulty phases. Iron core losses are calculated via FEM simulations in Flux-Cedrat software, and moreover, inverter losses and winding copper losses are simulated in MATLAB� environment. Experimental evaluations are conducted to evaluate the efficiency of the entire BLDC drive which verifies the theoretical developments.

  6. Urban pluvial flood prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk; Jensen, David Getreuer

    2016-01-01

    Flooding produced by high-intensive local rainfall and drainage system capacity exceedance can have severe impacts in cities. In order to prepare cities for these types of flood events – especially in the future climate – it is valuable to be able to simulate these events numerically both...... historically and in real-time. There is a rather untested potential in real-time prediction of urban floods. In this paper radar data observations with different spatial and temporal resolution, radar nowcasts of 0–2 h lead time, and numerical weather models with lead times up to 24 h are used as inputs...... to an integrated flood and drainage systems model in order to investigate the relative difference between different inputs in predicting future floods. The system is tested on a small town Lystrup in Denmark, which has been flooded in 2012 and 2014. Results show it is possible to generate detailed flood maps...

  7. FLOOD MENACE IN KADUNA METROPOLIS: IMPACTS ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dr A.B.Ahmed

    damage, causes of flooding, human response to flooding and severity of ... from moving out. Source of ... Man responds to flood hazards through adjustment, flood abatement ... action to minimize or ameliorate flood hazards; flood abatement.

  8. Understanding Statistics - Cancer Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Annual reports of U.S. cancer statistics including new cases, deaths, trends, survival, prevalence, lifetime risk, and progress toward Healthy People targets, plus statistical summaries for a number of common cancer types.

  9. Real-time flood extent maps based on social media

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eilander, Dirk; van Loenen, Arnejan; Roskam, Ruud; Wagemaker, Jurjen

    2015-04-01

    information, we project the water depth observations in tweets on a digital elevation model using a flood-fill algorithm. Based on statistical methods we combine the large numbers of observations in order to create time series of flood extent maps. Early results indicate this method is very promising.

  10. FEH Local: improving flood estimates using historical data

    OpenAIRE

    Prosdocimi, Ilaria; Stewart, Lisa; Faulkner, Duncan; Mitchell, Chrissy

    2016-01-01

    The traditional approach to design flood estimation (for example, to derive the 100-year flood) is to apply a statistical model to time series of peak river flow measured by gauging stations. Such records are typically not very long, for example in the UK only about 10% of the stations have records that are more than 50 years in length. Along-explored way to augment the data available from a gauging station is to derive information about historical flood events and paleo-floods, which can be ...

  11. Statistic methods for searching inundated radioactive entities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dubasov, Yu.V.; Krivokhatskij, A.S.; Khramov, N.N.

    1993-01-01

    The problem of searching flooded radioactive object in a present area was considered. Various models of the searching route plotting are discussed. It is shown that spiral route by random points from the centre of the area examined is the most efficient one. The conclusion is made that, when searching flooded radioactive objects, it is advisable to use multidimensional statistical methods of classification

  12. Predicting the impact of urban flooding using open data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tkachenko, Nataliya; Procter, Rob; Jarvis, Stephen

    2016-05-01

    This paper aims to explore whether there is a relationship between search patterns for flood risk information on the Web and how badly localities have been affected by flood events. We hypothesize that localities where people stay more actively informed about potential flooding experience less negative impact than localities where people make less effort to be informed. Being informed, of course, does not hold the waters back; however, it may stimulate (or serve as an indicator of) such resilient behaviours as timely use of sandbags, relocation of possessions from basements to upper floors and/or temporary evacuation from flooded homes to alternative accommodation. We make use of open data to test this relationship empirically. Our results demonstrate that although aggregated Web search reflects average rainfall patterns, its eigenvectors predominantly consist of locations with similar flood impacts during 2014-2015. These results are also consistent with statistically significant correlations of Web search eigenvectors with flood warning and incident reporting datasets.

  13. Has the magnitude of floods across the USA changed with global CO2 levels?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirsch, Robert M.; Ryberg, Karen R.

    2012-01-01

    Statistical relationships between annual floods at 200 long-term (85–127 years of record) streamgauges in the coterminous United States and the global mean carbon dioxide concentration (GMCO2) record are explored. The streamgauge locations are limited to those with little or no regulation or urban development. The coterminous US is divided into four large regions and stationary bootstrapping is used to evaluate if the patterns of these statistical associations are significantly different from what would be expected under the null hypothesis that flood magnitudes are independent of GMCO2. In none of the four regions defined in this study is there strong statistical evidence for flood magnitudes increasing with increasing GMCO2. One region, the southwest, showed a statistically significant negative relationship between GMCO2 and flood magnitudes. The statistical methods applied compensate both for the inter-site correlation of flood magnitudes and the shorter-term (up to a few decades) serial correlation of floods.

  14. Unexpected flood loss correlations across Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, Naomi; Boyd, Jessica

    2017-04-01

    Floods don't observe country borders, as highlighted by major events across Europe that resulted in heavy economic and insured losses in 1999, 2002, 2009 and 2013. Flood loss correlations between some countries occur along multi-country river systems or between neighbouring nations affected by the same weather systems. However, correlations are not so obvious and whilst flooding in multiple locations across Europe may appear independent, for a re/insurer providing cover across the continent, these unexpected correlations can lead to high loss accumulations. A consistent, continental-scale method that allows quantification and comparison of losses, and identifies correlations in loss between European countries is therefore essential. A probabilistic model for European river flooding was developed that allows estimation of potential losses to pan-European property portfolios. By combining flood hazard and exposure information in a catastrophe modelling platform, we can consider correlations between river basins across Europe rather than being restricted to country boundaries. A key feature of the model is its statistical event set based on extreme value theory. Using historical river flow data, the event set captures spatial and temporal patterns of flooding across Europe and simulates thousands of events representing a full range of possible scenarios. Some known correlations were identified, such as between neighbouring Belgium and Luxembourg where 28% of events that affect either country produce a loss in both. However, our model identified some unexpected correlations including between Austria and Poland, and Poland and France, which are geographically distant. These correlations in flood loss may be missed by traditional methods and are key for re/insurers with risks in multiple countries. The model also identified that 46% of European river flood events affect more than one country. For more extreme events with a return period higher than 200 years, all events

  15. Discover Floods Educators Guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Project WET Foundation, 2009

    2009-01-01

    Now available as a Download! This valuable resource helps educators teach students about both the risks and benefits of flooding through a series of engaging, hands-on activities. Acknowledging the different roles that floods play in both natural and urban communities, the book helps young people gain a global understanding of this common--and…

  16. Design flood hydrographs from the relationship between flood peak and volume

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Mediero

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Hydrological frequency analyses are usually focused on flood peaks. Flood volumes and durations have not been studied as extensively, although there are many practical situations, such as when designing a dam, in which the full hydrograph is of interest. A flood hydrograph may be described by a multivariate function of the peak, volume and duration. Most standard bivariate and trivariate functions do not produce univariate three-parameter functions as marginal distributions, however, three-parameter functions are required to fit highly skewed data, such as flood peak and flood volume series. In this paper, the relationship between flood peak and hydrograph volume is analysed to overcome this problem. A Monte Carlo experiment was conducted to generate an ensemble of hydrographs that maintain the statistical properties of marginal distributions of the peaks, volumes and durations. This ensemble can be applied to determine the Design Flood Hydrograph (DFH for a reservoir, which is not a unique hydrograph, but rather a curve in the peak-volume space. All hydrographs on that curve have the same return period, which can be understood as the inverse of the probability to exceed a certain water level in the reservoir in any given year. The procedure can also be applied to design the length of the spillway crest in terms of the risk of exceeding a given water level in the reservoir.

  17. Modeling of Flood Risk for the Continental United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lohmann, D.; Li, S.; Katz, B.; Goteti, G.; Kaheil, Y. H.; Vojjala, R.

    2011-12-01

    The science of catastrophic risk modeling helps people to understand the physical and financial implications of natural catastrophes (hurricanes, flood, earthquakes, etc.), terrorism, and the risks associated with changes in life expectancy. As such it depends on simulation techniques that integrate multiple disciplines such as meteorology, hydrology, structural engineering, statistics, computer science, financial engineering, actuarial science, and more in virtually every field of technology. In this talk we will explain the techniques and underlying assumptions of building the RMS US flood risk model. We especially will pay attention to correlation (spatial and temporal), simulation and uncertainty in each of the various components in the development process. Recent extreme floods (e.g. US Midwest flood 2008, US Northeast flood, 2010) have increased the concern of flood risk. Consequently, there are growing needs to adequately assess the flood risk. The RMS flood hazard model is mainly comprised of three major components. (1) Stochastic precipitation simulation module based on a Monte-Carlo analogue technique, which is capable of producing correlated rainfall events for the continental US. (2) Rainfall-runoff and routing module. A semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model was developed to properly assess the antecedent conditions, determine the saturation area and runoff. The runoff is further routed downstream along the rivers by a routing model. Combined with the precipitation model, it allows us to correlate the streamflow and hence flooding from different rivers, as well as low and high return-periods across the continental US. (3) Flood inundation module. It transforms the discharge (output from the flow routing) into water level, which is further combined with a two-dimensional off-floodplain inundation model to produce comprehensive flood hazard map. The performance of the model is demonstrated by comparing to the observation and published data. Output from

  18. Frequency and seasonality of flash floods in Slovenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trobec Tajan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to assess and analyse the dynamics of flash flooding events in Slovenia. The paper examines in particular the frequency of flash floods and their seasonal distribution. The methodology is based on the analysis of historical records and modern flood data. The results of a long-term frequency analysis of 138 flash floods that occurred between 1550 and 2015 are presented. Because of the lack of adequate historical flood data prior to 1950 the main analysis is based on data for the periodbetween1951 and2015, while the analysis of data for the period between1550 and1950 is added as a supplement to the main analysis. Analysis of data for the period after 1950 shows that on average 1.3 flash floods occur each year in Slovenia. The linear trend for the number of flash floods is increasing but is not statistically significant. Despite the fact that the majority of Slovenian rivers have one of the peaks in spring and one of the lows in summer, 90% of flash floods actually occur during meteorological summer or autumn - i.e. between June and November, which shows that discharge regimes and flood regimes are not necessarily related. Because of the lack of flood records from the more distant past as well as the large variability of flash flood events in the last several decades, we cannot provide a definitive answer to the question about possible changes in their frequency and seasonality by relying solely on the detected trends. Nevertheless, considering the results of analysis and future climate change scenarios the frequency of flash floods in Slovenia could increase while the period of flash flood occurrence could be extended.

  19. Flood action plans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slopek, R.J.

    1995-01-01

    Safe operating procedures developed by TransAlta Utilities for dealing with flooding, resulting from upstream dam failures or extreme rainfalls, were presented. Several operating curves developed by Monenco AGRA were described, among them the No Overtopping Curve (NOC), the Safe Filling Curve (SFC), the No Spill Curve (NSC) and the Guaranteed Fill Curve (GFC). The concept of an operational comfort zone was developed and defined. A flood action plan for all operating staff was created as a guide in case of a flooding incident. Staging of a flood action plan workshop was described. Dam break scenarios pertinent to the Bow River were developed for subsequent incorporation into a Flood Action Plan Manual. Evaluation of the technical presentations made during workshops were found them to have been effective in providing operating staff with a better understanding of the procedures that they would perform in an emergency. 8 figs

  20. Distillation Column Flooding Predictor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    George E. Dzyacky

    2010-11-23

    The Flooding Predictor™ is a patented advanced control technology proven in research at the Separations Research Program, University of Texas at Austin, to increase distillation column throughput by over 6%, while also increasing energy efficiency by 10%. The research was conducted under a U. S. Department of Energy Cooperative Agreement awarded to George Dzyacky of 2ndpoint, LLC. The Flooding Predictor™ works by detecting the incipient flood point and controlling the column closer to its actual hydraulic limit than historical practices have allowed. Further, the technology uses existing column instrumentation, meaning no additional refining infrastructure is required. Refiners often push distillation columns to maximize throughput, improve separation, or simply to achieve day-to-day optimization. Attempting to achieve such operating objectives is a tricky undertaking that can result in flooding. Operators and advanced control strategies alike rely on the conventional use of delta-pressure instrumentation to approximate the column’s approach to flood. But column delta-pressure is more an inference of the column’s approach to flood than it is an actual measurement of it. As a consequence, delta pressure limits are established conservatively in order to operate in a regime where the column is never expected to flood. As a result, there is much “left on the table” when operating in such a regime, i.e. the capacity difference between controlling the column to an upper delta-pressure limit and controlling it to the actual hydraulic limit. The Flooding Predictor™, an innovative pattern recognition technology, controls columns at their actual hydraulic limit, which research shows leads to a throughput increase of over 6%. Controlling closer to the hydraulic limit also permits operation in a sweet spot of increased energy-efficiency. In this region of increased column loading, the Flooding Predictor is able to exploit the benefits of higher liquid

  1. Iowa Flood Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demir, I.; Krajewski, W. F.; Goska, R.; Mantilla, R.; Weber, L. J.; Young, N.

    2011-12-01

    The Iowa Flood Information System (IFIS) is a web-based platform developed by the Iowa Flood Center (IFC) to provide access to flood inundation maps, real-time flood conditions, flood forecasts both short-term and seasonal, flood-related data, information and interactive visualizations for communities in Iowa. The key element of the system's architecture is the notion of community. Locations of the communities, those near streams and rivers, define basin boundaries. The IFIS provides community-centric watershed and river characteristics, weather (rainfall) conditions, and streamflow data and visualization tools. Interactive interfaces allow access to inundation maps for different stage and return period values, and flooding scenarios with contributions from multiple rivers. Real-time and historical data of water levels, gauge heights, and rainfall conditions are available in the IFIS by streaming data from automated IFC bridge sensors, USGS stream gauges, NEXRAD radars, and NWS forecasts. Simple 2D and 3D interactive visualizations in the IFIS make the data more understandable to general public. Users are able to filter data sources for their communities and selected rivers. The data and information on IFIS is also accessible through web services and mobile applications. The IFIS is optimized for various browsers and screen sizes to provide access through multiple platforms including tablets and mobile devices. The IFIS includes a rainfall-runoff forecast model to provide a five-day flood risk estimate for around 500 communities in Iowa. Multiple view modes in the IFIS accommodate different user types from general public to researchers and decision makers by providing different level of tools and details. River view mode allows users to visualize data from multiple IFC bridge sensors and USGS stream gauges to follow flooding condition along a river. The IFIS will help communities make better-informed decisions on the occurrence of floods, and will alert communities

  2. Quantification of uncertainty in flood risk assessment for flood protection planning: a Bayesian approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dittes, Beatrice; Špačková, Olga; Ebrahimian, Negin; Kaiser, Maria; Rieger, Wolfgang; Disse, Markus; Straub, Daniel

    2017-04-01

    Flood risk estimates are subject to significant uncertainties, e.g. due to limited records of historic flood events, uncertainty in flood modeling, uncertain impact of climate change or uncertainty in the exposure and loss estimates. In traditional design of flood protection systems, these uncertainties are typically just accounted for implicitly, based on engineering judgment. In the AdaptRisk project, we develop a fully quantitative framework for planning of flood protection systems under current and future uncertainties using quantitative pre-posterior Bayesian decision analysis. In this contribution, we focus on the quantification of the uncertainties and study their relative influence on the flood risk estimate and on the planning of flood protection systems. The following uncertainty components are included using a Bayesian approach: 1) inherent and statistical (i.e. limited record length) uncertainty; 2) climate uncertainty that can be learned from an ensemble of GCM-RCM models; 3) estimates of climate uncertainty components not covered in 2), such as bias correction, incomplete ensemble, local specifics not captured by the GCM-RCM models; 4) uncertainty in the inundation modelling; 5) uncertainty in damage estimation. We also investigate how these uncertainties are possibly reduced in the future when new evidence - such as new climate models, observed extreme events, and socio-economic data - becomes available. Finally, we look into how this new evidence influences the risk assessment and effectivity of flood protection systems. We demonstrate our methodology for a pre-alpine catchment in southern Germany: the Mangfall catchment in Bavaria that includes the city of Rosenheim, which suffered significant losses during the 2013 flood event.

  3. Analyzing Future Flooding under Climate Change Scenario using CMIP5 Streamflow Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parajuli, Ranjan; Nyaupane, Narayan; Kalra, Ajay

    2017-12-01

    Flooding is a severe and costlier natural hazard. The effect of climate change has intensified the scenario in recent years. Flood prevention practice along with a proper understanding of flooding event can mitigate the risk of such hazard. The floodplain mapping is one of the technique to quantify the severity of the flooding. Carson City, which is one of the agricultural areas in the desert of Nevada has experienced peak flood in the recent year. The underlying probability distribution for the area, latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) streamflow data of Carson River were analyzed for 27 different statistical distributions. The best-fitted distribution underlying was used to forecast the 100yr flood (design flood). The data from 1950-2099 derived from 31 model and total 97 projections were used to predict the future streamflow. Delta change method is adopted to quantify the amount of future (2050-2099) flood. To determine the extent of flooding 3 scenarios (i) historic design flood, (ii) 500yr flood and (iii) future 100yr flood were routed on an HEC-RAS model, prepared using available terrain data. Some of the climate projection shows an extreme increase in future design flood. This study suggests an approach to quantify the future flood and floodplain using climate model projections. The study would provide helpful information to the facility manager, design engineer, and stakeholders.

  4. Health impacts of floods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Weiwei; FitzGerald, Gerard Joseph; Clark, Michele; Hou, Xiang-Yu

    2010-01-01

    Floods are the most common hazard to cause disasters and have led to extensive morbidity and mortality throughout the world. The impact of floods on the human community is related directly to the location and topography of the area, as well as human demographics and characteristics of the built environment. The aim of this study is to identify the health impacts of disasters and the underlying causes of health impacts associated with floods. A conceptual framework is developed that may assist with the development of a rational and comprehensive approach to prevention, mitigation, and management. This study involved an extensive literature review that located >500 references, which were analyzed to identify common themes, findings, and expert views. The findings then were distilled into common themes. The health impacts of floods are wide ranging, and depend on a number of factors. However, the health impacts of a particular flood are specific to the particular context. The immediate health impacts of floods include drowning, injuries, hypothermia, and animal bites. Health risks also are associated with the evacuation of patients, loss of health workers, and loss of health infrastructure including essential drugs and supplies. In the medium-term, infected wounds, complications of injury, poisoning, poor mental health, communicable diseases, and starvation are indirect effects of flooding. In the long-term, chronic disease, disability, poor mental health, and poverty-related diseases including malnutrition are the potential legacy. This article proposes a structured approach to the classification of the health impacts of floods and a conceptual framework that demonstrates the relationships between floods and the direct and indirect health consequences.

  5. Nogales flood detention study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norman, Laura M.; Levick, Lainie; Guertin, D. Phillip; Callegary, James; Guadarrama, Jesus Quintanar; Anaya, Claudia Zulema Gil; Prichard, Andrea; Gray, Floyd; Castellanos, Edgar; Tepezano, Edgar; Huth, Hans; Vandervoet, Prescott; Rodriguez, Saul; Nunez, Jose; Atwood, Donald; Granillo, Gilberto Patricio Olivero; Ceballos, Francisco Octavio Gastellum

    2010-01-01

    Flooding in Ambos Nogales often exceeds the capacity of the channel and adjacent land areas, endangering many people. The Nogales Wash is being studied to prevent future flood disasters and detention features are being installed in tributaries of the wash. This paper describes the application of the KINEROS2 model and efforts to understand the capacity of these detention features under various flood and urbanization scenarios. Results depict a reduction in peak flow for the 10-year, 1-hour event based on current land use in tributaries with detention features. However, model results also demonstrate that larger storm events and increasing urbanization will put a strain on the features and limit their effectiveness.

  6. Development of flood index by characterisation of flood hydrographs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharya, Biswa; Suman, Asadusjjaman

    2015-04-01

    In recent years the world has experienced deaths, large-scale displacement of people, billions of Euros of economic damage, mental stress and ecosystem impacts due to flooding. Global changes (climate change, population and economic growth, and urbanisation) are exacerbating the severity of flooding. The 2010 floods in Pakistan and the 2011 floods in Australia and Thailand demonstrate the need for concerted action in the face of global societal and environmental changes to strengthen resilience against flooding. Due to climatological characteristics there are catchments where flood forecasting may have a relatively limited role and flood event management may have to be trusted upon. For example, in flash flood catchments, which often may be tiny and un-gauged, flood event management often depends on approximate prediction tools such as flash flood guidance (FFG). There are catchments fed largely by flood waters coming from upstream catchments, which are un-gauged or due to data sharing issues in transboundary catchments the flow of information from upstream catchment is limited. Hydrological and hydraulic modelling of these downstream catchments will never be sufficient to provide any required forecasting lead time and alternative tools to support flood event management will be required. In FFG, or similar approaches, the primary motif is to provide guidance by synthesising the historical data. We follow a similar approach to characterise past flood hydrographs to determine a flood index (FI), which varies in space and time with flood magnitude and its propagation. By studying the variation of the index the pockets of high flood risk, requiring attention, can be earmarked beforehand. This approach can be very useful in flood risk management of catchments where information about hydro-meteorological variables is inadequate for any forecasting system. This paper presents the development of FI and its application to several catchments including in Kentucky in the USA

  7. Floods and droughts: friends or foes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prudhomme, Christel

    2017-04-01

    Water hazards are some of the biggest threats to lives and livelihoods globally, causing serious damages to society and infrastructure. But floods and droughts are an essential part of the hydrological regime that ensures fundamental ecosystem functions, providing natural ways to bring in nutrients, flush out pollutants and enabling soils, rivers and lakes natural biodiversity to thrive. Traditionally, floods and droughts are too often considered separately, with scientific advance in process understanding, modelling, statistical characterisation and impact assessment are often done independently, possibly delaying the development of innovative methods that could be applied to both. This talk will review some of the key characteristics of floods and droughts, highlighting differences and commonalties, losses and benefits, with the aim of identifying future key research challenges faced by both current and next generation of hydrologists.

  8. Flood Forecasting in River System Using ANFIS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ullah, Nazrin; Choudhury, P.

    2010-01-01

    The aim of the present study is to investigate applicability of artificial intelligence techniques such as ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) in forecasting flood flow in a river system. The proposed technique combines the learning ability of neural network with the transparent linguistic representation of fuzzy system. The technique is applied to forecast discharge at a downstream station using flow information at various upstream stations. A total of three years data has been selected for the implementation of this model. ANFIS models with various input structures and membership functions are constructed, trained and tested to evaluate efficiency of the models. Statistical indices such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Correlation Coefficient (CORR) and Coefficient of Efficiency (CE) are used to evaluate performance of the ANFIS models in forecasting river flood. The values of the indices show that ANFIS model can accurately and reliably be used to forecast flood in a river system.

  9. Legitimizing differentiated flood protection levels

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thomas, Hartmann; Spit, Tejo

    2016-01-01

    The European flood risk management plan is a new instrument introduced by the Floods Directive. It introduces a spatial turn and a scenario approach in flood risk management, ultimately leading to differentiated flood protection levels on a catchment basis. This challenges the traditional sources of

  10. Flood-proof motors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schmitt, Marcus [AREVA NP GmbH, Erlangen (Germany)

    2013-07-01

    Even before the Fukushima event occurred some German nuclear power plants (NPP) have considered flooding scenarios. As a result of one of these studies, AREVA performed an upgrade project in NPP Isar 1 with flood-proof motors as a replacement of existing air-cooled low-voltage and high-voltage motors of the emergency cooling chain. After the Fukushima event, in which the cooling chains failed, the topic flood-proof equipment gets more and more into focus. This compact will introduce different kinds of flood-proof electrical motors which are currently installed or planned for installation into NPPs over the world. Moreover the process of qualification, as it was performed during the project in NPP Isar 1, will be shown. (orig.)

  11. Floods and Mold Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mold growth may be a problem after flooding. Excess moisture in the home is cause for concern about indoor air quality primarily because it provides breeding conditions for pests, molds and other microorganisms.

  12. FLOODPLAIN, FLOOD COUNTY, USA

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Emergency Management Agency, Department of Homeland Security — The Floodplain Mapping/Redelineation study deliverables depict and quantify the flood risks for the study area. The primary risk classifications used are the...

  13. Flood-proof motors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmitt, Marcus

    2013-01-01

    Even before the Fukushima event occurred some German nuclear power plants (NPP) have considered flooding scenarios. As a result of one of these studies, AREVA performed an upgrade project in NPP Isar 1 with flood-proof motors as a replacement of existing air-cooled low-voltage and high-voltage motors of the emergency cooling chain. After the Fukushima event, in which the cooling chains failed, the topic flood-proof equipment gets more and more into focus. This compact will introduce different kinds of flood-proof electrical motors which are currently installed or planned for installation into NPPs over the world. Moreover the process of qualification, as it was performed during the project in NPP Isar 1, will be shown. (orig.)

  14. Floods in a changing climate: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, J C R

    2002-07-15

    This paper begins with an analysis of flooding as a natural disaster for which the solutions to the environmental, social and economic problems are essentially those of identifying and overcoming hazards and vulnerability, reducing risk and damaging consequences. Long-term solutions to flooding problems, especially in a changing climate, should be sought in the wider context of developing more sustainable social organization, economics and technology. Then, developments are described of how scientific understanding, supported by practical modelling, is leading to predictions of how human-induced changes to climatic and geological conditions are likely to influence flooding over at least the next 300 years, through their influences on evaporation, precipitation, run-off, wind storm and sea-level rise. Some of the outstanding scientific questions raised by these problems are highlighted, such as the statistical and deterministic prediction of extreme events, the understanding and modelling of mechanisms that operate on varying length- and time-scales, and the complex interactions between biological, ecological and physical problems. Some options for reducing the impact of flooding by new technology include both improved prediction and monitoring with computer models, and remote sensing, flexible and focused warning systems, and permanent and temporary flood-reduction systems.

  15. Flood hazard assessment in areas prone to flash flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kvočka, Davor; Falconer, Roger A.; Bray, Michaela

    2016-04-01

    Contemporary climate projections suggest that there will be an increase in the occurrence of high-intensity rainfall events in the future. These precipitation extremes are usually the main cause for the emergence of extreme flooding, such as flash flooding. Flash floods are among the most unpredictable, violent and fatal natural hazards in the world. Furthermore, it is expected that flash flooding will occur even more frequently in the future due to more frequent development of extreme weather events, which will greatly increase the danger to people caused by flash flooding. This being the case, there will be a need for high resolution flood hazard maps in areas susceptible to flash flooding. This study investigates what type of flood hazard assessment methods should be used for assessing the flood hazard to people caused by flash flooding. Two different types of flood hazard assessment methods were tested: (i) a widely used method based on an empirical analysis, and (ii) a new, physically based and experimentally calibrated method. Two flash flood events were considered herein, namely: the 2004 Boscastle flash flood and the 2007 Železniki flash flood. The results obtained in this study suggest that in the areas susceptible to extreme flooding, the flood hazard assessment should be conducted using methods based on a mechanics-based analysis. In comparison to standard flood hazard assessment methods, these physically based methods: (i) take into account all of the physical forces, which act on a human body in floodwater, (ii) successfully adapt to abrupt changes in the flow regime, which often occur for flash flood events, and (iii) rapidly assess a flood hazard index in a relatively short period of time.

  16. Impact of Austrian hydropower plants on the flood control safety of the Hungarian Danube reach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zsuffa, I.

    1999-01-01

    Statistical analysis of daily water level data from four gauging stations along the Hungarian Danube reach has been carried out with the purpose of analysing the impact of the Austrian hydropower plants on the floods of the river. Conditional probability distribution functions of annual flood load maxima and annual number of floods were generated for the periods 1957-1976 and 1977-1996. By comparing these distribution functions, it could be shown that the flood load maxima have decreased, while the number of small and medium floods have increased during the past forty years. These changes indicate a decreased rate of flood superposition resulting from the barrages constructed in this period. The significantly decreased flood load maxima indicate that the Austrian barrage system has positive impact on the flood control safety of the Hungarian Danube reach

  17. An overview of road damages due to flooding: Case study in Kedah state, Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail, Muhd Shahril Nizam; Ghani, Abdul Naser Abdul

    2017-10-01

    Flooding occurs frequently in many countries including Malaysia. Floods in Malaysia are usually due to heavy and prolonged rainfall, uncontrolled development, and drainage systems that are not being monitored. Road damage due to flooding event can cause huge expenditures for the post-flooding rehabilitation and maintenance. The required maintenance and rehabilitation could upset the original life cycle cost estimations. Data on road statistics were obtained from the Highway Planning Division, Ministry of Works Malaysia and data on flooding was collected from the Department of Irrigation and Drainage Malaysia for events between 2012 and 2015. The pilot sites were selected based on its historical cases of floods that caused road damages in Kedah. The pilot site indicated that the impact of flooding on road infrastructures systems can be used to plan better road design and maintenances. It also revealed that it costs more than RM 1 million to reinstate roads damaged by flooding in a typical district annually.

  18. Pakistan flood damage mapped by UNOSAT at CERN

    CERN Multimedia

    Katarina Anthony

    2010-01-01

    As the waters recede, the Pakistan floods are attracting less attention in the world's media. But at the CERN-based headquarters of UNOSAT, the UN Institute for Training and Research Operational Satellite Application Programme, mapping the damage caused by the floods remains the top priority as the “emergency phase” is only now beginning to level off.   Flood analysis in Pakistan from 28 July to 16 September 2010. Credits: © UNOSAT UNOSAT uses impartial, objective data to assess the specifics of a disaster: What surface area has the flood covered? How many bridges and roads have been destroyed? How many areas are impenetrable? Although there are statistical answers to these questions, UNOSAT’s assessment of the damage caused by the Pakistan floods can be simply described in one word: catastrophic. The images used by UNOSAT are taken from a variety of different sources – commercial and scientific. Once a satellite takes an image, the owne...

  19. Timing of floods in southeastern China: Seasonal properties and potential causes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qiang; Gu, Xihui; Singh, Vijay P.; Shi, Peijun; Luo, Ming

    2017-09-01

    Flood hazards and flood risks in southeastern China have been causing increasing concerns due to dense population and highly-developed economy. This study attempted to address changes of seasonality, timing of peak floods and variability of occurrence date of peak floods using circular statistical methods and the modified Mann-Kendall trend detection method. The causes of peak flood changes were also investigated. Results indicated that: (1) floods were subject to more seasonality and temporal clustering when compared to precipitation extremes. However, seasonality of floods and extreme precipitation was subject to spatial heterogeneity in northern Guangdong. Similar changing patterns of peak floods and extreme precipitation were found in coastal regions; (2) significant increasing/decreasing seasonality, but no confirmed spatial patterns, were observed for peak floods and extreme precipitation. Peak floods in northern Guangdong province had decreasing variability, but had larger variability in coastal regions; (3) tropical cyclones had remarkable impacts on extreme precipitation changes in coastal regions of southeastern China, and peak floods as well. The landfalling of tropical cyclones was decreasing and concentrated during June-September; this is the major reason for earlier but enhanced seasonality of peak floods in coastal regions. This study sheds new light on flood behavior in coastal regions in a changing environment.

  20. Statistical thermodynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, Gyeong Hui

    2008-03-01

    This book consists of 15 chapters, which are basic conception and meaning of statistical thermodynamics, Maxwell-Boltzmann's statistics, ensemble, thermodynamics function and fluctuation, statistical dynamics with independent particle system, ideal molecular system, chemical equilibrium and chemical reaction rate in ideal gas mixture, classical statistical thermodynamics, ideal lattice model, lattice statistics and nonideal lattice model, imperfect gas theory on liquid, theory on solution, statistical thermodynamics of interface, statistical thermodynamics of a high molecule system and quantum statistics

  1. Mitigating flood exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shultz, James M; McLean, Andrew; Herberman Mash, Holly B; Rosen, Alexa; Kelly, Fiona; Solo-Gabriele, Helena M; Youngs Jr, Georgia A; Jensen, Jessica; Bernal, Oscar; Neria, Yuval

    2013-01-01

    Introduction. In 2011, following heavy winter snowfall, two cities bordering two rivers in North Dakota, USA faced major flood threats. Flooding was foreseeable and predictable although the extent of risk was uncertain. One community, Fargo, situated in a shallow river basin, successfully mitigated and prevented flooding. For the other community, Minot, located in a deep river valley, prevention was not possible and downtown businesses and one-quarter of the homes were inundated, in the city’s worst flood on record. We aimed at contrasting the respective hazards, vulnerabilities, stressors, psychological risk factors, psychosocial consequences, and disaster risk reduction strategies under conditions where flood prevention was, and was not, possible. Methods. We applied the “trauma signature analysis” (TSIG) approach to compare the hazard profiles, identify salient disaster stressors, document the key components of disaster risk reduction response, and examine indicators of community resilience. Results. Two demographically-comparable communities, Fargo and Minot, faced challenging river flood threats and exhibited effective coordination across community sectors. We examined the implementation of disaster risk reduction strategies in situations where coordinated citizen action was able to prevent disaster impact (hazard avoidance) compared to the more common scenario when unpreventable disaster strikes, causing destruction, harm, and distress. Across a range of indicators, it is clear that successful mitigation diminishes both physical and psychological impact, thereby reducing the trauma signature of the event. Conclusion. In contrast to experience of historic flooding in Minot, the city of Fargo succeeded in reducing the trauma signature by way of reducing risk through mitigation. PMID:28228985

  2. FEH Local: Improving flood estimates using historical data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prosdocimi Ilaria

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The traditional approach to design flood estimation (for example, to derive the 100-year flood is to apply a statistical model to time series of peak river flow measured by gauging stations. Such records are typically not very long, for example in the UK only about 10% of the stations have records that are more than 50 years in length. Along-explored way to augment the data available from a gauging station is to derive information about historical flood events and paleo-floods, which can be obtained from careful exploration of archives, old newspapers, flood marks or other signs of past flooding that are still discernible in the catchment, and the history of settlements. The inclusion of historical data in flood frequency estimation has been shown to substantially reduce the uncertainty around the estimated design events and is likely to provide insight into the rarest events which might have pre-dated the relatively short systematic records. Among other things, the FEH Local project funded by the Environment Agency aims to develop methods to easily incorporate historical information into the standard method of statistical flood frequency estimation in the UK. Different statistical estimation procedures are explored, namely maximum likelihood and partial probability weighted moments, and the strengths and weaknesses of each method are investigated. The project assesses the usefulness of historical data and aims to provide practitioners with useful guidelines to indicate in what circumstances the inclusion of historical data is likely to be beneficial in terms of reducing both the bias and the variability of the estimated flood frequency curves. The guidelines are based on the results of a large Monte Carlo simulation study, in which different estimation procedures and different data availability scenarios are studied. The study provides some indication of the situations under which different estimation procedures might give a better performance.

  3. Application of Flood Nomograph for Flood Forecasting in Urban Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eui Hoon Lee

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Imperviousness has increased due to urbanization, as has the frequency of extreme rainfall events by climate change. Various countermeasures, such as structural and nonstructural measures, are required to prepare for these effects. Flood forecasting is a representative nonstructural measure. Flood forecasting techniques have been developed for the prevention of repetitive flood damage in urban areas. It is difficult to apply some flood forecasting techniques using training processes because training needs to be applied at every usage. The other flood forecasting techniques that use rainfall data predicted by radar are not appropriate for small areas, such as single drainage basins. In this study, a new flood forecasting technique is suggested to reduce flood damage in urban areas. The flood nomograph consists of the first flooding nodes in rainfall runoff simulations with synthetic rainfall data at each duration. When selecting the first flooding node, the initial amount of synthetic rainfall is 1 mm, which increases in 1 mm increments until flooding occurs. The advantage of this flood forecasting technique is its simple application using real-time rainfall data. This technique can be used to prepare a preemptive response in the process of urban flood management.

  4. The Total Risk Analysis of Large Dams under Flood Hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Chen

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Dams and reservoirs are useful systems in water conservancy projects; however, they also pose a high-risk potential for large downstream areas. Flood, as the driving force of dam overtopping, is the main cause of dam failure. Dam floods and their risks are of interest to researchers and managers. In hydraulic engineering, there is a growing tendency to evaluate dam flood risk based on statistical and probabilistic methods that are unsuitable for the situations with rare historical data or low flood probability, so a more reasonable dam flood risk analysis method with fewer application restrictions is needed. Therefore, different from previous studies, this study develops a flood risk analysis method for large dams based on the concept of total risk factor (TRF used initially in dam seismic risk analysis. The proposed method is not affected by the adequacy of historical data or the low probability of flood and is capable of analyzing the dam structure influence, the flood vulnerability of the dam site, and downstream risk as well as estimating the TRF of each dam and assigning corresponding risk classes to each dam. Application to large dams in the Dadu River Basin, Southwestern China, demonstrates that the proposed method provides quick risk estimation and comparison, which can help local management officials perform more detailed dam safety evaluations for useful risk management information.

  5. Toward economic flood loss characterization via hazard simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czajkowski, Jeffrey; Cunha, Luciana K.; Michel-Kerjan, Erwann; Smith, James A.

    2016-08-01

    Among all natural disasters, floods have historically been the primary cause of human and economic losses around the world. Improving flood risk management requires a multi-scale characterization of the hazard and associated losses—the flood loss footprint. But this is typically not available in a precise and timely manner, yet. To overcome this challenge, we propose a novel and multidisciplinary approach which relies on a computationally efficient hydrological model that simulates streamflow for scales ranging from small creeks to large rivers. We adopt a normalized index, the flood peak ratio (FPR), to characterize flood magnitude across multiple spatial scales. The simulated FPR is then shown to be a key statistical driver for associated economic flood losses represented by the number of insurance claims. Importantly, because it is based on a simulation procedure that utilizes generally readily available physically-based data, our flood simulation approach has the potential to be broadly utilized, even for ungauged and poorly gauged basins, thus providing the necessary information for public and private sector actors to effectively reduce flood losses and save lives.

  6. Crowdsourcing detailed flood data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walliman, Nicholas; Ogden, Ray; Amouzad*, Shahrzhad

    2015-04-01

    Over the last decade the average annual loss across the European Union due to flooding has been 4.5bn Euros, but increasingly intense rainfall, as well as population growth, urbanisation and the rising costs of asset replacements, may see this rise to 23bn Euros a year by 2050. Equally disturbing are the profound social costs to individuals, families and communities which in addition to loss of lives include: loss of livelihoods, decreased purchasing and production power, relocation and migration, adverse psychosocial effects, and hindrance of economic growth and development. Flood prediction, management and defence strategies rely on the availability of accurate information and flood modelling. Whilst automated data gathering (by measurement and satellite) of the extent of flooding is already advanced it is least reliable in urban and physically complex geographies where often the need for precise estimation is most acute. Crowdsourced data of actual flood events is a potentially critical component of this allowing improved accuracy in situations and identifying the effects of local landscape and topography where the height of a simple kerb, or discontinuity in a boundary wall can have profound importance. Mobile 'App' based data acquisition using crowdsourcing in critical areas can combine camera records with GPS positional data and time, as well as descriptive data relating to the event. This will automatically produce a dataset, managed in ArcView GIS, with the potential for follow up calls to get more information through structured scripts for each strand. Through this local residents can provide highly detailed information that can be reflected in sophisticated flood protection models and be core to framing urban resilience strategies and optimising the effectiveness of investment. This paper will describe this pioneering approach that will develop flood event data in support of systems that will advance existing approaches such as developed in the in the UK

  7. Floods in Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Follansbee, Robert; Sawyer, Leon R.

    1948-01-01

    The first records of floods in Colorado antedated the settlement of the State by about 30 years. These were records of floods on the Arkansas and Republican Rivers in 1826. Other floods noted by traders, hunters and emigrants, some of whom were on their way to the Far West, occurred in 1844 on the Arkansas River, and by inference on the South Platte River. Other early floods were those on the Purgatoire, the Lower Arkansas, and the San Juan Rivers about 1859. The most serious flood since settlement began was that on the Arkansas River during June 1921, which caused the loss of about 100 lives and an estimated property loss of $19,000,000. Many floods of lesser magnitude have occurred, and some of these have caused loss of life and very considerable property damage. Topography is the chief factor in determining the location of storms and resulting floods. These occur most frequently on the eastern slope of the Front Range. In the mountains farther west precipitation is insufficient to cause floods except during periods of melting snow, in June. In the southwestern part of the State, where precipitation during periods of melting snow is insufficient to cause floods, the severest floods yet experienced resulted from heavy rains in September 1909 and October 1911. In the eastern foothills region, usually below an altitude of about 7,500 feet and extending for a distance of about 50 miles east of the mountains, is a zone subject to rainfalls of great intensity known as cloudbursts. These cloudbursts are of short duration and are confined to very small areas. At times the intensity is so great as to make breathing difficult for those exposed to a storm. The areas of intense rainfall are so small that Weather Bureau precipitation stations have not been located in them. Local residents, being cloudburst conscious, frequently measure the rainfall in receptacles in their yards, and such records constitute the only source of information regarding the intensity. A flood

  8. Understanding Flood Seasonality and Its Temporal Shifts within the Contiguous United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ye, Sheng [Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources, School of Civil Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China; Li, Hong-Yi [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Leung, L. Ruby [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Guo, Jiali [College of Civil and Hydropower Engineering, China Three Gorges University, Yichang, China; State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China; Ran, Qihua [Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources, School of Civil Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China; Demissie, Yonas [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Washington State University Tri-Cities, Richland, Washington; Sivapalan, Murugesu [Department of Geography and Geographic Information Science, University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, Champaign, Illinois; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, Urbana, Illinois

    2017-07-01

    Understanding the causes of flood seasonality is critical for better flood management. This study examines the seasonality of annual maximum floods (AMF) and its changes before and after 1980 at over 250 natural catchments across the contiguous United States. Using circular statistics to define a seasonality index, our analysis focuses on the variability of the flood occurrence date. Generally, catchments with more synchronized seasonal water and energy cycles largely inherit their seasonality of AMF from that of annual maximum rainfall (AMR). In contrast, the seasonality of AMF in catchments with loosely synchronized water and energy cycles are more influenced by high antecedent storage, which is responsible for the amplification of the seasonality of AMF over that of AMR. This understanding then effectively explains a statistically significant shift of flood seasonality detected in some catchments in the recent decades. Catchments where the antecedent soil water storage has increased since 1980 exhibit increasing flood seasonality while catchments that have experienced increases in storm rainfall before the floods have shifted towards floods occurring more variably across the seasons. In the eastern catchments, a concurrent widespread increase in event rainfall magnitude and reduced soil water storage have led to a more variable timing of floods. Our findings of the role of antecedent storage and event rainfall on the flood seasonality provide useful insights for understanding future changes in flood seasonality as climate models projected changes in extreme precipitation and aridity over land.

  9. Probable maximum flood control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DeGabriele, C.E.; Wu, C.L.

    1991-11-01

    This study proposes preliminary design concepts to protect the waste-handling facilities and all shaft and ramp entries to the underground from the probable maximum flood (PMF) in the current design configuration for the proposed Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigation (NNWSI) repository protection provisions were furnished by the United States Bureau of Reclamation (USSR) or developed from USSR data. Proposed flood protection provisions include site grading, drainage channels, and diversion dikes. Figures are provided to show these proposed flood protection provisions at each area investigated. These areas are the central surface facilities (including the waste-handling building and waste treatment building), tuff ramp portal, waste ramp portal, men-and-materials shaft, emplacement exhaust shaft, and exploratory shafts facility

  10. Probabilistic flood extent estimates from social media flood observations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brouwer, Tom; Eilander, Dirk; Van Loenen, Arnejan; Booij, Martijn J.; Wijnberg, Kathelijne M.; Verkade, Jan S.; Wagemaker, Jurjen

    2017-01-01

    The increasing number and severity of floods, driven by phenomena such as urbanization, deforestation, subsidence and climate change, create a growing need for accurate and timely flood maps. In this paper we present and evaluate a method to create deterministic and probabilistic flood maps from

  11. Probabilistic flood extent estimates from social media flood observations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brouwer, Tom; Eilander, Dirk; Van Loenen, Arnejan; Booij, Martijn J.; Wijnberg, Kathelijne M.; Verkade, Jan S.; Wagemaker, Jurjen

    2017-01-01

    The increasing number and severity of floods, driven by phenomena such as urbanization, deforestation, subsidence and climate change, creates a growing need for accurate and timely flood maps. This research focussed on creating flood maps using user generated content from Twitter. Twitter data has

  12. Mapping flood hazards under uncertainty through probabilistic flood inundation maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, T.; Bledsoe, B. P.; Miller, A. J.; Lee, G.

    2017-12-01

    Changing precipitation, rapid urbanization, and population growth interact to create unprecedented challenges for flood mitigation and management. Standard methods for estimating risk from flood inundation maps generally involve simulations of floodplain hydraulics for an established regulatory discharge of specified frequency. Hydraulic model results are then geospatially mapped and depicted as a discrete boundary of flood extents and a binary representation of the probability of inundation (in or out) that is assumed constant over a project's lifetime. Consequently, existing methods utilized to define flood hazards and assess risk management are hindered by deterministic approaches that assume stationarity in a nonstationary world, failing to account for spatio-temporal variability of climate and land use as they translate to hydraulic models. This presentation outlines novel techniques for portraying flood hazards and the results of multiple flood inundation maps spanning hydroclimatic regions. Flood inundation maps generated through modeling of floodplain hydraulics are probabilistic reflecting uncertainty quantified through Monte-Carlo analyses of model inputs and parameters under current and future scenarios. The likelihood of inundation and range of variability in flood extents resulting from Monte-Carlo simulations are then compared with deterministic evaluations of flood hazards from current regulatory flood hazard maps. By facilitating alternative approaches of portraying flood hazards, the novel techniques described in this presentation can contribute to a shifting paradigm in flood management that acknowledges the inherent uncertainty in model estimates and the nonstationary behavior of land use and climate.

  13. Flood Risk Management In Europe: European flood regulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hegger, D.L.T.; Bakker, M.H.; Green, C.; Driessen, Peter; Delvaux, B.; Rijswick, H.F.M.W. van; Suykens, C.; Beyers, J-C.; Deketelaere, K.; Doorn-Hoekveld, W. van; Dieperink, C.

    2013-01-01

    In Europe, water management is moving from flood defense to a risk management approach, which takes both the probability and the potential consequences of flooding into account. In this report, we will look at Directives and (non-)EU- initiatives in place to deal with flood risk in Europe indirectly

  14. Exploitation of Documented Historical Floods for Achieving Better Flood Defense

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Slobodan Kolaković

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Establishing Base Flood Elevation for a stream network corresponding to a big catchment is feasible by interdisciplinary approach, involving stochastic hydrology, river hydraulics, and computer aided simulations. A numerical model calibrated by historical floods has been exploited in this study. The short presentation of the catchment of the Tisza River in this paper is followed by the overview of historical floods which hit the region in the documented period of 130 years. Several well documented historical floods provided opportunity for the calibration of the chosen numerical model. Once established, the model could be used for investigation of different extreme flood scenarios and to establish the Base Flood Elevation. The calibration has shown that the coefficient of friction in case of the Tisza River is dependent both on the actual water level and on the preceding flood events. The effect of flood plain maintenance as well as the activation of six potential detention ponds on flood mitigation has been examined. Furthermore, the expected maximum water levels have also been determined for the case if the ever observed biggest 1888 flood hit the region again. The investigated cases of flood superposition highlighted the impact of tributary Maros on flood mitigation along the Tisza River.

  15. Improving Global Flood Forecasting using Satellite Detected Flood Extent

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Revilla Romero, B.

    2016-01-01

    Flooding is a natural global phenomenon but in many cases is exacerbated by human activity. Although flooding generally affects humans in a negative way, bringing death, suffering, and economic impacts, it also has potentially beneficial effects. Early flood warning and forecasting systems, as well

  16. The Global Flood Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, P.; Huddelston, M.; Michel, G.; Thompson, S.; Heynert, K.; Pickering, C.; Abbott Donnelly, I.; Fewtrell, T.; Galy, H.; Sperna Weiland, F.; Winsemius, H.; Weerts, A.; Nixon, S.; Davies, P.; Schiferli, D.

    2012-04-01

    Recently, a Global Flood Model (GFM) initiative has been proposed by Willis, UK Met Office, Esri, Deltares and IBM. The idea is to create a global community platform that enables better understanding of the complexities of flood risk assessment to better support the decisions, education and communication needed to mitigate flood risk. The GFM will provide tools for assessing the risk of floods, for devising mitigation strategies such as land-use changes and infrastructure improvements, and for enabling effective pre- and post-flood event response. The GFM combines humanitarian and commercial motives. It will benefit: - The public, seeking to preserve personal safety and property; - State and local governments, seeking to safeguard economic activity, and improve resilience; - NGOs, similarly seeking to respond proactively to flood events; - The insurance sector, seeking to understand and price flood risk; - Large corporations, seeking to protect global operations and supply chains. The GFM is an integrated and transparent set of modules, each composed of models and data. For each module, there are two core elements: a live "reference version" (a worked example) and a framework of specifications, which will allow development of alternative versions. In the future, users will be able to work with the reference version or substitute their own models and data. If these meet the specification for the relevant module, they will interoperate with the rest of the GFM. Some "crowd-sourced" modules could even be accredited and published to the wider GFM community. Our intent is to build on existing public, private and academic work, improve local adoption, and stimulate the development of multiple - but compatible - alternatives, so strengthening mankind's ability to manage flood impacts. The GFM is being developed and managed by a non-profit organization created for the purpose. The business model will be inspired from open source software (eg Linux): - for non-profit usage

  17. Camp Marmal Flood Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-01

    was simulated by means of a broad - crested weir built into the topography of the mesh. There is 0.5 m of freeboard and the width of the weir is 30 m...ER D C/ CH L TR -1 2- 5 Camp Marmal Flood Study Co as ta l a nd H yd ra ul ic s La bo ra to ry Jeremy A. Sharp , Steve H. Scott...Camp Marmal Flood Study Jeremy A. Sharp , Steve H. Scott, Mark R. Jourdan, and Gaurav Savant Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory U.S. Army Engineer

  18. FEMA DFIRM Base Flood Elevations

    Data.gov (United States)

    Minnesota Department of Natural Resources — The Base Flood Elevation (BFE) table is required for any digital data where BFE lines will be shown on the corresponding Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM). Normally,...

  19. 2013 FEMA Flood Hazard Boundaries

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — The National Flood Hazard Layer (NFHL) data incorporates all Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map(DFIRM) databases published by FEMA, and any Letters Of Map Revision...

  20. FEMA DFIRM Flood Hazard Areas

    Data.gov (United States)

    Minnesota Department of Natural Resources — FEMA flood hazard delineations are used by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to designate the Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) and for insurance rating...

  1. Base Flood Elevation (BFE) Lines

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — The Base Flood Elevation (BFE) table is required for any digital data where BFE lines will be shown on the corresponding Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM). Normally if...

  2. National Flood Hazard Layer (NFHL)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Emergency Management Agency, Department of Homeland Security — The National Flood Hazard Layer (NFHL) is a compilation of GIS data that comprises a nationwide digital Flood Insurance Rate Map. The GIS data and services are...

  3. FEMA 100 year Flood Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Natural Resource Agency — The Q3 Flood Data product is a digital representation of certain features of FEMA's Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) product, intended for use with desktop mapping...

  4. 2013 FEMA Flood Control Structures

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — The National Flood Hazard Layer (NFHL) data incorporates all Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map(DFIRM) databases published by FEMA, and any Letters Of Map Revision...

  5. FEMA Q3 Flood Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    Kansas Data Access and Support Center — The Q3 Flood Data are derived from the Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMS) published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The file is georeferenced to...

  6. Analysis and GIS Mapping of Flooding Hazards on 10 May 2016, Guangzhou, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hai-Min Lyu

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available On 10 May 2016, Guangdong Province, China, suffered a heavy rainstorm. This rainstorm flooded the whole city of Guangzhou. More than 100,000 people were affected by the flooding, in which eight people lost their lives. Subway stations, cars, and buses were submerged. In order to analyse the influential factors of this flooding, topographical characteristics were mapped using Digital Elevation Model (DEM by the Geographical Information System (GIS and meteorological conditions were statistically summarised at both the whole city level and the district level. To analyse the relationship between flood risk and urbanization, GIS was also adopted to map the effect of the subway system using the Multiple Buffer operator over the flooding distribution area. Based on the analyses, one of the significant influential factors of flooding was identified as the urbanization degree, e.g., construction of a subway system, which forms along flood-prone areas. The total economic loss due to flooding in city centers with high urbanization has become very serious. Based on the analyses, the traditional standard of severity of flooding hazards (rainfall intensity grade was modified. Rainfall intensity for severity flooding was decreased from 50 mm to 30 mm in urbanized city centers. In order to protect cities from flooding, a “Sponge City” planning approach is recommended to increase the temporary water storage capacity during heavy rainstorms. In addition, for future city management, the combined use of GIS and Building Information Modelling (BIM is recommended to evaluate flooding hazards.

  7. Cancer Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... What Is Cancer? Cancer Statistics Cancer Disparities Cancer Statistics Cancer has a major impact on society in ... success of efforts to control and manage cancer. Statistics at a Glance: The Burden of Cancer in ...

  8. Multivariate pluvial flood damage models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Ootegem, Luc; Verhofstadt, Elsy; Van Herck, Kristine; Creten, Tom

    2015-01-01

    Depth–damage-functions, relating the monetary flood damage to the depth of the inundation, are commonly used in the case of fluvial floods (floods caused by a river overflowing). We construct four multivariate damage models for pluvial floods (caused by extreme rainfall) by differentiating on the one hand between ground floor floods and basement floods and on the other hand between damage to residential buildings and damage to housing contents. We do not only take into account the effect of flood-depth on damage, but also incorporate the effects of non-hazard indicators (building characteristics, behavioural indicators and socio-economic variables). By using a Tobit-estimation technique on identified victims of pluvial floods in Flanders (Belgium), we take into account the effect of cases of reported zero damage. Our results show that the flood depth is an important predictor of damage, but with a diverging impact between ground floor floods and basement floods. Also non-hazard indicators are important. For example being aware of the risk just before the water enters the building reduces content damage considerably, underlining the importance of warning systems and policy in this case of pluvial floods. - Highlights: • Prediction of damage of pluvial floods using also non-hazard information • We include ‘no damage cases’ using a Tobit model. • The damage of flood depth is stronger for ground floor than for basement floods. • Non-hazard indicators are especially important for content damage. • Potential gain of policies that increase awareness of flood risks

  9. Multivariate pluvial flood damage models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Ootegem, Luc [HIVA — University of Louvain (Belgium); SHERPPA — Ghent University (Belgium); Verhofstadt, Elsy [SHERPPA — Ghent University (Belgium); Van Herck, Kristine; Creten, Tom [HIVA — University of Louvain (Belgium)

    2015-09-15

    Depth–damage-functions, relating the monetary flood damage to the depth of the inundation, are commonly used in the case of fluvial floods (floods caused by a river overflowing). We construct four multivariate damage models for pluvial floods (caused by extreme rainfall) by differentiating on the one hand between ground floor floods and basement floods and on the other hand between damage to residential buildings and damage to housing contents. We do not only take into account the effect of flood-depth on damage, but also incorporate the effects of non-hazard indicators (building characteristics, behavioural indicators and socio-economic variables). By using a Tobit-estimation technique on identified victims of pluvial floods in Flanders (Belgium), we take into account the effect of cases of reported zero damage. Our results show that the flood depth is an important predictor of damage, but with a diverging impact between ground floor floods and basement floods. Also non-hazard indicators are important. For example being aware of the risk just before the water enters the building reduces content damage considerably, underlining the importance of warning systems and policy in this case of pluvial floods. - Highlights: • Prediction of damage of pluvial floods using also non-hazard information • We include ‘no damage cases’ using a Tobit model. • The damage of flood depth is stronger for ground floor than for basement floods. • Non-hazard indicators are especially important for content damage. • Potential gain of policies that increase awareness of flood risks.

  10. Floods in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theresa K. Andersen; Marshall J. Shepherd

    2013-01-01

    Atmospheric warming and associated hydrological changes have implications for regional flood intensity and frequency. Climate models and hydrological models have the ability to integrate various contributing factors and assess potential changes to hydrology at global to local scales through the century. This survey of floods in a changing climate reviews flood...

  11. Flood damage curves for consistent global risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Moel, Hans; Huizinga, Jan; Szewczyk, Wojtek

    2016-04-01

    Assessing potential damage of flood events is an important component in flood risk management. Determining direct flood damage is commonly done using depth-damage curves, which denote the flood damage that would occur at specific water depths per asset or land-use class. Many countries around the world have developed flood damage models using such curves which are based on analysis of past flood events and/or on expert judgement. However, such damage curves are not available for all regions, which hampers damage assessments in those regions. Moreover, due to different methodologies employed for various damage models in different countries, damage assessments cannot be directly compared with each other, obstructing also supra-national flood damage assessments. To address these problems, a globally consistent dataset of depth-damage curves has been developed. This dataset contains damage curves depicting percent of damage as a function of water depth as well as maximum damage values for a variety of assets and land use classes (i.e. residential, commercial, agriculture). Based on an extensive literature survey concave damage curves have been developed for each continent, while differentiation in flood damage between countries is established by determining maximum damage values at the country scale. These maximum damage values are based on construction cost surveys from multinational construction companies, which provide a coherent set of detailed building cost data across dozens of countries. A consistent set of maximum flood damage values for all countries was computed using statistical regressions with socio-economic World Development Indicators from the World Bank. Further, based on insights from the literature survey, guidance is also given on how the damage curves and maximum damage values can be adjusted for specific local circumstances, such as urban vs. rural locations, use of specific building material, etc. This dataset can be used for consistent supra

  12. Floods characterization: from impact data to quantitative assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llasat, Maria-Carmen; Gilabert, Joan; Llasat-Botija, Montserrat; Marcos, Raül; Quintana-Seguí, Pere; Turco, Marco

    2015-04-01

    This study is based on the following flood databases from Catalonia: INUNGAMA (1900-2010) which considers 372 floods (Llasat et al, 2014), PRESSGAMA (1981-2010) and HISTOGAMA (from XIV Century on) - built as part of SPHERE project and recently updated. These databases store information about flood impacts (among others) and classify them by their severity (catastrophic, extraordinary and ordinary) by means of an indicators matrix based on other studies (i.e. Petrucci et al, 2013; Llasat et al, 2013). On this research we present a comparison between flood impacts, flow data and rainfall data on a Catalan scale and particularly for the basins of Segre, Muga, Ter and Llobregat (Western Mediterranean). From a bottom-up approach, a statistical methodology has been built (trend analysis, measures of position, cumulative distribution functions and geostatistics) in order to identify quantitative thresholds that will make possible to classify the floods. The purpose of this study is to establish generic thresholds for the whole Catalan region, for this we have selected rainfall maximums of flooding episodes stored at INUNGAMA and they have been related to flood categories by boxplot diagrams. Regarding the stream flow, we have established a relation between impacts and return periods at the day when the flow is maximum. The aim is to homogenize and compare the different drainage basins and to obtain general thresholds. It is also presented detailed analyses of relations between flooding episodes, flood classification and weather typing schemes - based in Jenkinson and Collison classification (applied to the Iberian Peninsula by Spellmann, 2000). In this way it could be analyzed whether patterns for the different types of floods exist or not. Finally, this work has pointed out the need of defining a new category for the most severe episodes.

  13. Math Fights Flooding

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Besseling, Niels; Bokhove, Onno; Kolechkina, Alla; Molenaar, Jaap; van Nooyen, Ronald; Rottschäfer, Vivi; Stein, Alfred; Stoorvogel, Anton

    2008-01-01

    Due to climate changes that are expected in the coming years, the characteristics of the rainfall will change. This can potentially cause flooding or have negative influences on agriculture and nature. In this research, we study the effects of this change in rainfall and investigate what can be done

  14. Guidelines for determining flood flow frequency—Bulletin 17C

    Science.gov (United States)

    England, John F.; Cohn, Timothy A.; Faber, Beth A.; Stedinger, Jery R.; Thomas, Wilbert O.; Veilleux, Andrea G.; Kiang, Julie E.; Mason, Robert R.

    2018-03-29

    Accurate estimates of flood frequency and magnitude are a key component of any effective nationwide flood risk management and flood damage abatement program. In addition to accuracy, methods for estimating flood risk must be uniformly and consistently applied because management of the Nation’s water and related land resources is a collaborative effort involving multiple actors including most levels of government and the private sector.Flood frequency guidelines have been published in the United States since 1967, and have undergone periodic revisions. In 1967, the U.S. Water Resources Council presented a coherent approach to flood frequency with Bulletin 15, “A Uniform Technique for Determining Flood Flow Frequencies.” The method it recommended involved fitting the log-Pearson Type III distribution to annual peak flow data by the method of moments.The first extension and update of Bulletin 15 was published in 1976 as Bulletin 17, “Guidelines for Determining Flood Flow Frequency” (Guidelines). It extended the Bulletin 15 procedures by introducing methods for dealing with outliers, historical flood information, and regional skew. Bulletin 17A was published the following year to clarify the computation of weighted skew. The next revision of the Bulletin, the Bulletin 17B, provided a host of improvements and new techniques designed to address situations that often arise in practice, including better methods for estimating and using regional skew, weighting station and regional skew, detection of outliers, and use of the conditional probability adjustment.The current version of these Guidelines are presented in this document, denoted Bulletin 17C. It incorporates changes motivated by four of the items listed as “Future Work” in Bulletin 17B and 30 years of post-17B research on flood processes and statistical methods. The updates include: adoption of a generalized representation of flood data that allows for interval and censored data types; a new method

  15. Influence of Flood Detention Capability in Flood Prevention for Flood Disaster of Depression Area

    OpenAIRE

    Chia Lin Chan; Yi Ju Yang; Chih Chin Yang

    2011-01-01

    Rainfall records of rainfall station including the rainfall potential per hour and rainfall mass of five heavy storms are explored, respectively from 2001 to 2010. The rationalization formula is to investigate the capability of flood peak duration of flood detention pond in different rainfall conditions. The stable flood detention model is also proposed by using system dynamic control theory to get the message of flood detention pond in this research. When rainfall freque...

  16. High-resolution urban flood modelling - a joint probability approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartnett, Michael; Olbert, Agnieszka; Nash, Stephen

    2017-04-01

    (Divoky et al., 2005). Nevertheless, such events occur and in Ireland alone there are several cases of serious damage due to flooding resulting from a combination of high sea water levels and river flows driven by the same meteorological conditions (e.g. Olbert et al. 2015). A November 2009 fluvial-coastal flooding of Cork City bringing €100m loss was one such incident. This event was used by Olbert et al. (2015) to determine processes controlling urban flooding and is further explored in this study to elaborate on coastal and fluvial flood mechanisms and their roles in controlling water levels. The objective of this research is to develop a methodology to assess combined effect of multiple source flooding on flood probability and severity in urban areas and to establish a set of conditions that dictate urban flooding due to extreme climatic events. These conditions broadly combine physical flood drivers (such as coastal and fluvial processes), their mechanisms and thresholds defining flood severity. The two main physical processes controlling urban flooding: high sea water levels (coastal flooding) and high river flows (fluvial flooding), and their threshold values for which flood is likely to occur, are considered in this study. Contribution of coastal and fluvial drivers to flooding and their impacts are assessed in a two-step process. The first step involves frequency analysis and extreme value statistical modelling of storm surges, tides and river flows and ultimately the application of joint probability method to estimate joint exceedence return periods for combination of surges, tide and river flows. In the second step, a numerical model of Cork Harbour MSN_Flood comprising a cascade of four nested high-resolution models is used to perform simulation of flood inundation under numerous hypothetical coastal and fluvial flood scenarios. The risk of flooding is quantified based on a range of physical aspects such as the extent and depth of inundation (Apel et al

  17. Characterisation of seasonal flood types according to timescales in mixed probability distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Svenja; Schumann, Andreas; Schulte, Markus

    2016-08-01

    When flood statistics are based on annual maximum series (AMS), the sample often contains flood peaks, which differ in their genesis. If the ratios among event types change over the range of observations, the extrapolation of a probability distribution function (pdf) can be dominated by a majority of events that belong to a certain flood type. If this type is not typical for extraordinarily large extremes, such an extrapolation of the pdf is misleading. To avoid this breach of the assumption of homogeneity, seasonal models were developed that differ between winter and summer floods. We show that a distinction between summer and winter floods is not always sufficient if seasonal series include events with different geneses. Here, we differentiate floods by their timescales into groups of long and short events. A statistical method for such a distinction of events is presented. To demonstrate their applicability, timescales for winter and summer floods in a German river basin were estimated. It is shown that summer floods can be separated into two main groups, but in our study region, the sample of winter floods consists of at least three different flood types. The pdfs of the two groups of summer floods are combined via a new mixing model. This model considers that information about parallel events that uses their maximum values only is incomplete because some of the realisations are overlaid. A statistical method resulting in an amendment of statistical parameters is proposed. The application in a German case study demonstrates the advantages of the new model, with specific emphasis on flood types.

  18. A free and open source QGIS plugin for flood risk analysis: FloodRisk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albano, Raffaele; Sole, Aurelia; Mancusi, Leonardo

    2016-04-01

    An analysis of global statistics shows a substantial increase in flood damage over the past few decades. Moreover, it is expected that flood risk will continue to rise due to the combined effect of increasing numbers of people and economic assets in risk-prone areas and the effects of climate change. In order to increase the resilience of European economies and societies, the improvement of risk assessment and management has been pursued in the last years. This results in a wide range of flood analysis models of different complexities with substantial differences in underlying components needed for its implementation, as geographical, hydrological and social differences demand specific approaches in the different countries. At present, it is emerging the need of promote the creation of open, transparent, reliable and extensible tools for a comprehensive, context-specific and applicable flood risk analysis. In this context, the free and open-source Quantum GIS (QGIS) plugin "FloodRisk" is a good starting point to address this objective. The vision of the developers of this free and open source software (FOSS) is to combine the main features of state-of-the-art science, collaboration, transparency and interoperability in an initiative to assess and communicate flood risk worldwide and to assist authorities to facilitate the quality and fairness of flood risk management at multiple scales. Among the scientific community, this type of activity can be labelled as "participatory research", intended as adopting a set of techniques that "are interactive and collaborative" and reproducible, "providing a meaningful research experience that both promotes learning and generates knowledge and research data through a process of guided discovery"' (Albano et al., 2015). Moreover, this FOSS geospatial approach can lowering the financial barriers to understanding risks at national and sub-national levels through a spatio-temporal domain and can provide better and more complete

  19. GIS Support for Flood Rescue

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liang, Gengsheng; Mioc, Darka; Anton, François

    2007-01-01

    Under flood events, the ground traffic is blocked in and around the flooded area due to damages to roads and bridges. The traditional transportation network may not always help people to make a right decision for evacuation. In order to provide dynamic road information needed for flood rescue, we...... to retrieve the shortest and safest route in Fredericton road network during flood event. It enables users to make a timely decision for flood rescue. We are using Oracle Spatial to deal with emergency situations that can be applied to other constrained network applications as well....... developed an adaptive web-based transportation network application using Oracle technology. Moreover, the geographic relationships between the road network and flood areas are taken into account. The overlay between the road network and flood polygons is computed on the fly. This application allows users...

  20. Numerical simulation of flood barriers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srb, Pavel; Petrů, Michal; Kulhavý, Petr

    This paper deals with testing and numerical simulating of flood barriers. The Czech Republic has been hit by several very devastating floods in past years. These floods caused several dozens of causalities and property damage reached billions of Euros. The development of flood measures is very important, especially for the reduction the number of casualties and the amount of property damage. The aim of flood control measures is the detention of water outside populated areas and drainage of water from populated areas as soon as possible. For new flood barrier design it is very important to know its behaviour in case of a real flood. During the development of the barrier several standardized tests have to be carried out. Based on the results from these tests numerical simulation was compiled using Abaqus software and some analyses were carried out. Based on these numerical simulations it will be possible to predict the behaviour of barriers and thus improve their design.

  1. Citizen involvement in flood risk governance: flood groups and networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Twigger-Ross Clare

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Over the past decade has been a policy shift withinUK flood risk management towards localism with an emphasis on communities taking ownership of flood risk. There is also an increased focus on resilience and, more specifically, on community resilience to flooding. This paper draws on research carried out for UK Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs to evaluate the Flood Resilience Community Pathfinder (FRCP scheme in England. Resilience is conceptualised as multidimensional and linked to exisiting capacities within a community. Creating resilience to flooding is an ongoing process of adaptation, learning from past events and preparing for future risks. This paper focusses on the development of formal and informal institutions to support improved flood risk management: institutional resilience capacity. It includes new institutions: e.g. flood groups, as well as activities that help to build inter- and intra- institutional resilience capacity e.g. community flood planning. The pathfinder scheme consisted of 13 projects across England led by local authorities aimed at developing community resilience to flood risk between 2013 – 2015. This paper discusses the nature and structure of flood groups, the process of their development, and the extent of their linkages with formal institutions, drawing out the barriers and facilitators to developing institutional resilience at the local level.

  2. The 100-year flood seems to be changing. Can we really tell?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceres, R. L., Jr.; Forest, C. E.; Keller, K.

    2017-12-01

    Widespread flooding from Hurricane Harvey greatly exceeded the Federal Emergency Management Agency's 100-year flood levels. In the US, this flood level is often used as an important line of demarcation where areas above this level are considered safe, while areas below the line are at risk and require additional flood risk mitigation. In the wake of Harvey's damage, the US media has highlighted at least two important questions. First, has the 100-year flood level changed? Second, is the 100-year flood level a good metric for determining flood risk? To address the first question, we use an Observation System Simulation Experiment of storm surge flood levels and find that gradual changes to the 100-year storm surge level may not be reliably detected over the long lifespans expected of major flood risk mitigation strategies. Additionally, we find that common extreme value analysis models lead to biased results and additional uncertainty when incorrect assumptions are used for the underlying statistical model. These incorrect assumptions can lead to examples of negative learning. Addressing the second question, these findings further challenge the validity of using simple return levels such as the 100-year flood as a decision tool for assessing flood risk. These results indicate risk management strategies must account for such uncertainties to build resilient and robust planning tools that stakeholders desperately need.

  3. The Incidence of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder After Floods: A Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Long; Liu, Aizhong

    2015-06-01

    This study analyzes the incidence of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among flood victims, between different flood intensities, and between different time points after a flood. A search of several electronic literature databases was conducted to collect data on the incidence of PTSD after a flood. Loney criteria for research quality were used to evaluate the quality of selected search results. The combined incidence of PTSD was estimated using the Freeman-Tukey double arcsine transformation method. Subgroup analyses were conducted on different trauma intensities and different time points after a flood. Sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the impact of research quality. Fourteen articles were included in this meta-analysis, including a total of 40 600 flood victims; 3862 victims were diagnosed with PTSD. The combined incidence of PTSD was 15.74%. The subgroup analyses showed that the incidence of PTSD in victims who experienced severe and moderate flood intensity was higher than that in victims who experienced mild flood intensity. The incidence of PTSD was lower at 6 or more months after a flood (11.45%) than within 6 months (16.01%) of a flood. In conclusion, the incidence of PTSD among floods of different trauma intensities was statistically significant.

  4. Effects of climate variability on global scale flood risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, P.; Dettinger, M. D.; Kummu, M.; Jongman, B.; Sperna Weiland, F.; Winsemius, H.

    2013-12-01

    In this contribution we demonstrate the influence of climate variability on flood risk. Globally, flooding is one of the worst natural hazards in terms of economic damages; Munich Re estimates global losses in the last decade to be in excess of $240 billion. As a result, scientifically sound estimates of flood risk at the largest scales are increasingly needed by industry (including multinational companies and the insurance industry) and policy communities. Several assessments of global scale flood risk under current and conditions have recently become available, and this year has seen the first studies assessing how flood risk may change in the future due to global change. However, the influence of climate variability on flood risk has as yet hardly been studied, despite the fact that: (a) in other fields (drought, hurricane damage, food production) this variability is as important for policy and practice as long term change; and (b) climate variability has a strong influence in peak riverflows around the world. To address this issue, this contribution illustrates the influence of ENSO-driven climate variability on flood risk, at both the globally aggregated scale and the scale of countries and large river basins. Although it exerts significant and widespread influences on flood peak discharges in many parts of the world, we show that ENSO does not have a statistically significant influence on flood risk once aggregated to global totals. At the scale of individual countries, though, strong relationships exist over large parts of the Earth's surface. For example, we find particularly strong anomalies of flood risk in El Niño or La Niña years (compared to all years) in southern Africa, parts of western Africa, Australia, parts of Central Eurasia (especially for El Niño), the western USA (especially for La Niña), and parts of South America. These findings have large implications for both decadal climate-risk projections and long-term future climate change

  5. ENSO impacts on flood risk at the global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Philip; Dettinger, Michael; Jongman, Brenden; Kummu, Matti; Winsemius, Hessel

    2014-05-01

    We present the impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on society and the economy, via relationships between ENSO and the hydrological cycle. We also discuss ways in which this knowledge can be used in disaster risk management and risk reduction. This contribution provides the most recent results of an ongoing 4-year collaborative research initiative to assess and map the impacts of large scale interannual climate variability on flood hazard and risk at the global scale. We have examined anomalies in flood risk between ENSO phases, whereby flood risk is expressed in terms of indicators such as: annual expected damage; annual expected affected population; annual expected affected Gross Domestic Product (GDP). We show that large anomalies in flood risk occur during El Niño or La Niña years in basins covering large parts of the Earth's surface. These anomalies reach statistical significance river basins covering almost two-thirds of the Earth's surface. Particularly strong anomalies exist in southern Africa, parts of western Africa, Australia, parts of Central Eurasia (especially for El Niño), the western USA (especially La Niña anomalies), and parts of South America. We relate these anomalies to possible causal relationships between ENSO and flood hazard, using both modelled and observed data on flood occurrence and extremity. The implications for flood risk management are many-fold. In those regions where disaster risk is strongly influenced by ENSO, the potential predictably of ENSO could be used to develop probabilistic flood risk projections with lead times up to several seasons. Such data could be used by the insurance industry in managing risk portfolios and by multinational companies for assessing the robustness of their supply chains to potential flood-related interruptions. Seasonal forecasts of ENSO influence of peak flows could also allow for improved flood early warning and regulation by dam operators, which could also reduce overall risks

  6. Flash flood modelling for ungauged catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garambois, P.-A.; Roux, H.; Larnier, K.; Dartus, D.

    2012-04-01

    hydrograph shape descriptors in order to constrain model at ungauged locations. In a multi scale point of view, regional characteristics about catchments geomorphology or rainfall fields' statistics should provide useful insight to find pertinent hydrologic response indices. These considerations with physically based distributed modelling may bring better understanding on flash floods generating mechanisms and catchment responses.

  7. Impacts of Floods Events on Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caporali, E.; Pacetti, T.; Rulli, M. C.

    2017-12-01

    The analysis of the interactions among natural disasters and food security is particularly significant for developing countries where food availability (one of the four pillars of food security together with access, utilization and stability) can be highly jeopardize by extreme events that damage the primary access to food, i.e. the agriculture. The main objective of this study is to analyze the impact of flood events on food security for two disastrous flood events in Bangladesh on 2007 and in Pakistan on 2010, selected here as case studies based on the existing literature related to extreme floods.The adopted methodology integrates remote sensing data, agricultural statistics, and water footprint values in order to (i) evaluating the potentially affected agricultural areas; (ii) converting the affected areas into crop loss; (iii) estimating the associated calories and water footprint losses. In Bangladesh, the estimated lost rice is around 12.5% of the total potential production, which implies a 5.3% calories loss with respect to the total potential energy provided by rice and 4.4% of total WF associated to national food supply. In Pakistan, the results show a crops loss of 19% for sugarcane and 40% for rice, with a related calories loss of 8.5% and a WF loss of 13.5%.The results highlight the countries vulnerability to flood, being both countries strongly dependent on local agricultural production. The 2007 flood event reflected critically upon Bangladeshi food security, almost doubling the existing food deficit. The same happened in Pakistan where an already scarce food supply has been worsened by the 2010 flood.Method results are fully repeatable; whereas, for remote sensed data the sources of data are valid worldwide and the data regarding land use and crops characteristics are strongly site specific, which need to be carefully evaluated.These case studies stress the importance of integrating different analysis approaches to carry out an assessment of the

  8. Floods and tsunamis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llewellyn, Mark

    2006-06-01

    Floods and tsunamis cause few severe injuries, but those injuries can overwhelm local areas, depending on the magnitude of the disaster. Most injuries are extremity fractures, lacerations, and sprains. Because of the mechanism of soft tissue and bone injuries, infection is a significant risk. Aspiration pneumonias are also associated with tsunamis. Appropriate precautionary interventions prevent communicable dis-ease outbreaks. Psychosocial health issues must be considered.

  9. Usage Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... this page: https://medlineplus.gov/usestatistics.html MedlinePlus Statistics To use the sharing features on this page, ... By Quarter View image full size Quarterly User Statistics Quarter Page Views Unique Visitors Oct-Dec-98 ...

  10. Flood risk on the Black sea coast of Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alekseevsky, Nikolay; Magritsky, Dmitry; Koltermann, Peter; Krylenko, Inna; Umina, Natalya; Aybulatov, Denis; Efremova, Natalya; Lebedeva, Seraphima

    2013-04-01

    coast is very high. It is proved by recent events in 1991, 2002, 2010 and 2012. Possibly, it will increase in the future, as well as number of high and destructive floods. This tendency is caused by strengthening of climatic and synoptic instability in the region and by the human activity in the watersheds and floodplains development (for example huge constructions for the Olympic Winter Games 2014 near Sochi). But this tendency statistically isn't significant yet. Decrease of flood risks will be promoted by optimization of system of hydrometeorological monitoring; detailed studying of factors and characteristics of the floods, including flood dynamic modeling and hazard zonation; development of effective methods of the forecast and the prevention of floods; increasing in channel capacity; population resettlement from especially dangerous areas. The scientific basis for these measures is created by authors within large-scale researches on a grant of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 11.G34.31.0007.

  11. Flood Risk Assessment as a Part of Integrated Flood and Drought Analysis. Case Study: Southern Thailand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prabnakorn, Saowanit; Suryadi, Fransiscus X.; de Fraiture, Charlotte

    2015-04-01

    Flood and drought are two main meteorological catastrophes that have created adverse consequences to more than 80% of total casualties universally, 50% by flood and 31% by drought. Those natural hazards have the tendency of increasing frequency and degree of severity and it is expected that climate change will exacerbate their occurrences and impacts. In addition, growing population and society interference are the other key factors that pressure on and exacerbate the adverse impacts. Consequently, nowadays, the loss from any disasters becomes less and less acceptable bringing about more people's consciousness on mitigation measures and management strategies and policies. In general, due to the difference in their inherent characteristics and time occurrences flood and drought mitigation and protection have been separately implemented, managed, and supervised by different group of authorities. Therefore, the objective of this research is to develop an integrated mitigation measure or a management policy able to surmount both problems to acceptable levels and is conveniently monitored by the same group of civil servants which will be economical in both short- and long-term. As aforementioned of the distinction of fundamental peculiarities and occurrence, the assessment processes of floods and droughts are separately performed using their own specific techniques. In the first part of the research flood risk assessment is focused in order to delineate the flood prone area. The study area is a river plain in southern Thailand where flooding is influenced by monsoon and depression. The work is mainly concentrated on physically-based computational modeling and an assortment of tools was applied for: data completion, areal rainfall interpolation, statistical distribution, rainfall-runoff analysis and flow model simulation. The outcome from the simulation can be concluded that the flood prone areas susceptible to inundation are along the riparian areas, particularly at the

  12. The development of flood map in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zakaria, Siti Fairus; Zin, Rosli Mohamad; Mohamad, Ismail; Balubaid, Saeed; Mydin, Shaik Hussein; MDR, E. M. Roodienyanto

    2017-11-01

    In Malaysia, flash floods are common occurrences throughout the year in flood prone areas. In terms of flood extent, flash floods affect smaller areas but because of its tendency to occur in densely urbanized areas, the value of damaged property is high and disruption to traffic flow and businesses are substantial. However, in river floods especially the river floods of Kelantan and Pahang, the flood extent is widespread and can extend over 1,000 square kilometers. Although the value of property and density of affected population is lower, the damage inflicted by these floods can also be high because the area affected is large. In order to combat these floods, various flood mitigation measures have been carried out. Structural flood mitigation alone can only provide protection levels from 10 to 100 years Average Recurrence Intervals (ARI). One of the economically effective non-structural approaches in flood mitigation and flood management is using a geospatial technology which involves flood forecasting and warning services to the flood prone areas. This approach which involves the use of Geographical Information Flood Forecasting system also includes the generation of a series of flood maps. There are three types of flood maps namely Flood Hazard Map, Flood Risk Map and Flood Evacuation Map. Flood Hazard Map is used to determine areas susceptible to flooding when discharge from a stream exceeds the bank-full stage. Early warnings of incoming flood events will enable the flood victims to prepare themselves before flooding occurs. Properties and life's can be saved by keeping their movable properties above the flood levels and if necessary, an early evacuation from the area. With respect to flood fighting, an early warning with reference through a series of flood maps including flood hazard map, flood risk map and flood evacuation map of the approaching flood should be able to alert the organization in charge of the flood fighting actions and the authority to

  13. Mathematical statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Pestman, Wiebe R

    2009-01-01

    This textbook provides a broad and solid introduction to mathematical statistics, including the classical subjects hypothesis testing, normal regression analysis, and normal analysis of variance. In addition, non-parametric statistics and vectorial statistics are considered, as well as applications of stochastic analysis in modern statistics, e.g., Kolmogorov-Smirnov testing, smoothing techniques, robustness and density estimation. For students with some elementary mathematical background. With many exercises. Prerequisites from measure theory and linear algebra are presented.

  14. Swiss Re Global Flood Hazard Zones: Know your flood risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinukollu, R. K.; Castaldi, A.; Mehlhorn, J.

    2012-12-01

    Floods, among all natural disasters, have a great damage potential. On a global basis, there is strong evidence of increase in the number of people affected and economic losses due to floods. For example, global insured flood losses have increased by 12% every year since 1970 and this is expected to further increase with growing exposure in the high risk areas close to rivers and coastlines. Recently, the insurance industry has been surprised by the large extent of losses, because most countries lack reliable hazard information. One example has been the 2011 Thailand floods where millions of people were affected and the total economic losses were 30 billion USD. In order to assess the flood risk across different regions and countries, the flood team at Swiss Re based on a Geomorphologic Regression approach, developed in house and patented, produced global maps of flood zones. Input data for the study was obtained from NASA's Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) elevation data, Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) and HydroSHEDS. The underlying assumptions of the approach are that naturally flowing rivers shape their channel and flood plain according to basin inherent forces and characteristics and that the flood water extent strongly depends on the shape of the flood plain. On the basis of the catchment characteristics, the model finally calculates the probability of a location to be flooded or not for a defined return period, which in the current study was set to 100 years. The data is produced at a 90-m resolution for latitudes 60S to 60N. This global product is now used in the insurance industry to inspect, inform and/or insure the flood risk across the world.

  15. Frog Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whole Frog Project and Virtual Frog Dissection Statistics wwwstats output for January 1 through duplicate or extraneous accesses. For example, in these statistics, while a POST requesting an image is as well. Note that this under-represents the bytes requested. Starting date for following statistics

  16. Public perception of flood risks, flood forecasting and mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Brilly

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available A multidisciplinary and integrated approach to the flood mitigation decision making process should provide the best response of society in a flood hazard situation including preparation works and post hazard mitigation. In Slovenia, there is a great lack of data on social aspects and public response to flood mitigation measures and information management. In this paper, two studies of flood perception in the Slovenian town Celje are represented. During its history, Celje was often exposed to floods, the most recent serious floods being in 1990 and in 1998, with a hundred and fifty return period and more than ten year return period, respectively. Two surveys were conducted in 1997 and 2003, with 157 participants from different areas of the town in the first, and 208 in the second study, aiming at finding the general attitude toward the floods. The surveys revealed that floods present a serious threat in the eyes of the inhabitants, and that the perception of threat depends, to a certain degree, on the place of residence. The surveys also highlighted, among the other measures, solidarity and the importance of insurance against floods.

  17. Detecting Flood Variations in Shanghai over 1949–2009 with Mann-Kendall Tests and a Newspaper-Based Database

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shiqiang Du

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available A valuable aid to assessing and managing flood risk lies in a reliable database of historical floods. In this study, a newspaper-based flood database for Shanghai (NFDS for the period 1949–2009 was developed through a systematic scanning of newspapers. After calibration and validation of the database, Mann-Kendall tests and correlation analysis were applied to detect possible changes in flood frequencies. The analysis was carried out for three different flood types: overbank flood, agricultural waterlogging, and urban waterlogging. The compiled NFDS registered 146 floods and 92% of them occurred in the flood-prone season from June to September. The statistical analyses showed that both the annual flood and the floods in June–August increased significantly. Urban waterlogging showed a very strong increasing trend, probably because of insufficient capacity of urban drainage system and impacts of rapid urbanization. By contrast, the decrease in overbank flooding and the slight increase in agricultural waterlogging were likely because of the construction of river levees and seawalls and the upgrade of agricultural drainage systems, respectively. This study demonstrated the usefulness of local newspapers in building a historical flood database and in assessing flood characterization.

  18. Flooding correlations in narrow channel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, S. H.; Baek, W. P.; Chang, S. H.

    1999-01-01

    Heat transfer in narrow gap is considered as important phenomena in severe accidents in nuclear power plants. Also in heat removal of electric chip. Critical heat flux(CHF) in narrow gap limits the maximum heat transfer rate in narrow channel. In case of closed bottom channel, flooding limited CHF occurrence is observed. Flooding correlations will be helpful to predict the CHF in closed bottom channel. In present study, flooding data for narrow channel geometry were collected and the work to recognize the effect of the span, w and gap size, s were performed. And new flooding correlations were suggested for high-aspect-ratio geometry. Also, flooding correlation was applied to flooding limited CHF data

  19. Flood Hazards - A National Threat

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    2006-01-01

    In the late summer of 2005, the remarkable flooding brought by Hurricane Katrina, which caused more than $200 billion in losses, constituted the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history. However, even in typical years, flooding causes billions of dollars in damage and threatens lives and property in every State. Natural processes, such as hurricanes, weather systems, and snowmelt, can cause floods. Failure of levees and dams and inadequate drainage in urban areas can also result in flooding. On average, floods kill about 140 people each year and cause $6 billion in property damage. Although loss of life to floods during the past half-century has declined, mostly because of improved warning systems, economic losses have continued to rise due to increased urbanization and coastal development.

  20. Fault tree analysis for urban flooding

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ten Veldhuis, J.A.E.; Clemens, F.H.L.R.; Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.

    2008-01-01

    Traditional methods to evaluate flood risk mostly focus on storm events as the main cause of flooding. Fault tree analysis is a technique that is able to model all potential causes of flooding and to quantify both the overall probability of flooding and the contributions of all causes of flooding to

  1. Rethinking the relationship between flood risk perception and flood management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birkholz, S; Muro, M; Jeffrey, P; Smith, H M

    2014-04-15

    Although flood risk perceptions and their concomitant motivations for behaviour have long been recognised as significant features of community resilience in the face of flooding events, there has, for some time now, been a poorly appreciated fissure in the accompanying literature. Specifically, rationalist and constructivist paradigms in the broader domain of risk perception provide different (though not always conflicting) contexts for interpreting evidence and developing theory. This contribution reviews the major constructs that have been applied to understanding flood risk perceptions and contextualises these within broader conceptual developments around risk perception theory and contemporary thinking around flood risk management. We argue that there is a need to re-examine and re-invigorate flood risk perception research, in a manner that is comprehensively underpinned by more constructivist thinking around flood risk management as well as by developments in broader risk perception research. We draw attention to an historical over-emphasis on the cognitive perceptions of those at risk to the detriment of a richer understanding of a wider range of flood risk perceptions such as those of policy-makers or of tax-payers who live outside flood affected areas as well as the linkages between these perspectives and protective measures such as state-supported flood insurance schemes. Conclusions challenge existing understandings of the relationship between risk perception and flood management, particularly where the latter relates to communication strategies and the extent to which those at risk from flooding feel responsible for taking protective actions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Flood Risk and Flood hazard maps - Visualisation of hydrological risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spachinger, Karl; Dorner, Wolfgang; Metzka, Rudolf; Serrhini, Kamal; Fuchs, Sven

    2008-01-01

    Hydrological models are an important basis of flood forecasting and early warning systems. They provide significant data on hydrological risks. In combination with other modelling techniques, such as hydrodynamic models, they can be used to assess the extent and impact of hydrological events. The new European Flood Directive forces all member states to evaluate flood risk on a catchment scale, to compile maps of flood hazard and flood risk for prone areas, and to inform on a local level about these risks. Flood hazard and flood risk maps are important tools to communicate flood risk to different target groups. They provide compiled information to relevant public bodies such as water management authorities, municipalities, or civil protection agencies, but also to the broader public. For almost each section of a river basin, run-off and water levels can be defined based on the likelihood of annual recurrence, using a combination of hydrological and hydrodynamic models, supplemented by an analysis of historical records and mappings. In combination with data related to the vulnerability of a region risk maps can be derived. The project RISKCATCH addressed these issues of hydrological risk and vulnerability assessment focusing on the flood risk management process. Flood hazard maps and flood risk maps were compiled for Austrian and German test sites taking into account existing national and international guidelines. These maps were evaluated by eye-tracking using experimental graphic semiology. Sets of small-scale as well as large-scale risk maps were presented to test persons in order to (1) study reading behaviour as well as understanding and (2) deduce the most attractive components that are essential for target-oriented risk communication. A cognitive survey asking for negative and positive aspects and complexity of each single map complemented the experimental graphic semiology. The results indicate how risk maps can be improved to fit the needs of different user

  3. Towards a Flood Severity Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kettner, A.; Chong, A.; Prades, L.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Muir, S.; Amparore, A.; Slayback, D. A.; Poungprom, R.

    2017-12-01

    Flooding is the most common natural hazard worldwide, affecting 21 million people every year. In the immediate moments following a flood event, humanitarian actors like the World Food Program need to make rapid decisions ( 72 hrs) on how to prioritize affected areas impacted by such an event. For other natural disasters like hurricanes/cyclones and earthquakes, there are industry-recognized standards on how the impacted areas are to be classified. Shake maps, quantifying peak ground motion, from for example the US Geological Survey are widely used for assessing earthquakes. Similarly, cyclones are tracked by Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS) who release storm nodes and tracks (forecasted and actual), with wind buffers and classify the event according to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. For floods, the community is usually able to acquire unclassified data of the flood extent as identified from satellite imagery. Most often no water discharge hydrograph is available to classify the event into recurrence intervals simply because there is no gauging station, or the gauging station was unable to record the maximum discharge due to overtopping or flood damage. So, the question remains: How do we methodically turn a flooded area into classified areas of different gradations of impact? Here, we present a first approach towards developing a global applicable flood severity index. The flood severity index is set up such that it considers relatively easily obtainable physical parameters in a short period of time like: flood frequency (relating the current flood to historical events) and magnitude, as well as land cover, slope, and where available pre-event simulated flood depth. The scale includes categories ranging from very minor flooding to catastrophic flooding. We test and evaluate the postulated classification scheme against a set of past flood events. Once a severity category is determined, socio

  4. Probabilistic Flood Defence Assessment Tools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Slomp Robert

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The WTI2017 project is responsible for the development of flood defence assessment tools for the 3600 km of Dutch primary flood defences, dikes/levees, dunes and hydraulic structures. These tools are necessary, as per January 1st 2017, the new flood risk management policy for the Netherlands will be implemented. Then, the seven decades old design practice (maximum water level methodology of 1958 and two decades old safety standards (and maximum hydraulic load methodology of 1996 will formally be replaced by a more risked based approach for the national policy in flood risk management. The formal flood defence assessment is an important part of this new policy, especially for flood defence managers, since national and regional funding for reinforcement is based on this assessment. This new flood defence policy is based on a maximum allowable probability of flooding. For this, a maximum acceptable individual risk was determined at 1/100 000 per year, this is the probability of life loss of for every protected area in the Netherlands. Safety standards of flood defences were then determined based on this acceptable individual risk. The results were adjusted based on information from cost -benefit analysis, societal risk and large scale societal disruption due to the failure of critical infrastructure e.g. power stations. The resulting riskbased flood defence safety standards range from a 300 to a 100 000 year return period for failure. Two policy studies, WV21 (Safety from floods in the 21st century and VNK-2 (the National Flood Risk in 2010 provided the essential information to determine the new risk based safety standards for flood defences. The WTI2017 project will provide the safety assessment tools based on these new standards and is thus an essential element for the implementation of this policy change. A major issue to be tackled was the development of user-friendly tools, as the new assessment is to be carried out by personnel of the

  5. Flood risk in a changing world - a coupled transdisciplinary modelling framework for flood risk assessment in an Alpine study area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huttenlau, Matthias; Schneeberger, Klaus; Winter, Benjamin; Pazur, Robert; Förster, Kristian; Achleitner, Stefan; Bolliger, Janine

    2017-04-01

    Devastating flood events have caused substantial economic damage across Europe during past decades. Flood risk management has therefore become a topic of crucial interest across state agencies, research communities and the public sector including insurances. There is consensus that mitigating flood risk relies on impact assessments which quantitatively account for a broad range of aspects in a (changing) environment. Flood risk assessments which take into account the interaction between the drivers climate change, land-use change and socio-economic change might bring new insights to the understanding of the magnitude and spatial characteristic of flood risks. Furthermore, the comparative assessment of different adaptation measures can give valuable information for decision-making. With this contribution we present an inter- and transdisciplinary research project aiming at developing and applying such an impact assessment relying on a coupled modelling framework for the Province of Vorarlberg in Austria. Stakeholder engagement ensures that the final outcomes of our study are accepted and successfully implemented in flood management practice. The study addresses three key questions: (i) What are scenarios of land- use and climate change for the study area? (ii) How will the magnitude and spatial characteristic of future flood risk change as a result of changes in climate and land use? (iii) Are there spatial planning and building-protection measures which effectively reduce future flood risk? The modelling framework has a modular structure comprising modules (i) climate change, (ii) land-use change, (iii) hydrologic modelling, (iv) flood risk analysis, and (v) adaptation measures. Meteorological time series are coupled with spatially explicit scenarios of land-use change to model runoff time series. The runoff time series are combined with impact indicators such as building damages and results are statistically assessed to analyse flood risk scenarios. Thus, the

  6. Temporal clustering of floods in Germany: Do flood-rich and flood-poor periods exist?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merz, Bruno; Nguyen, Viet Dung; Vorogushyn, Sergiy

    2016-10-01

    The repeated occurrence of exceptional floods within a few years, such as the Rhine floods in 1993 and 1995 and the Elbe and Danube floods in 2002 and 2013, suggests that floods in Central Europe may be organized in flood-rich and flood-poor periods. This hypothesis is studied by testing the significance of temporal clustering in flood occurrence (peak-over-threshold) time series for 68 catchments across Germany for the period 1932-2005. To assess the robustness of the results, different methods are used: Firstly, the index of dispersion, which quantifies the departure from a homogeneous Poisson process, is investigated. Further, the time-variation of the flood occurrence rate is derived by non-parametric kernel implementation and the significance of clustering is evaluated via parametric and non-parametric tests. Although the methods give consistent overall results, the specific results differ considerably. Hence, we recommend applying different methods when investigating flood clustering. For flood estimation and risk management, it is of relevance to understand whether clustering changes with flood severity and time scale. To this end, clustering is assessed for different thresholds and time scales. It is found that the majority of catchments show temporal clustering at the 5% significance level for low thresholds and time scales of one to a few years. However, clustering decreases substantially with increasing threshold and time scale. We hypothesize that flood clustering in Germany is mainly caused by catchment memory effects along with intra- to inter-annual climate variability, and that decadal climate variability plays a minor role.

  7. Statistical physics

    CERN Document Server

    Sadovskii, Michael V

    2012-01-01

    This volume provides a compact presentation of modern statistical physics at an advanced level. Beginning with questions on the foundations of statistical mechanics all important aspects of statistical physics are included, such as applications to ideal gases, the theory of quantum liquids and superconductivity and the modern theory of critical phenomena. Beyond that attention is given to new approaches, such as quantum field theory methods and non-equilibrium problems.

  8. Impacts of dyke development in flood prone areas in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta to downstream flood hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khanh Triet Nguyen, Van; Dung Nguyen, Viet; Fujii, Hideto; Kummu, Matti; Merz, Bruno; Apel, Heiko

    2016-04-01

    Chau and Chau Doc. The MK test statistic results (Z) for these stations are -0.23, -1.39 and -0.84 respectively. In contrary, significant increasing trend (at α = 1%) of annual flood peak at Can Tho and My Thuan is calculated, with the Z value are 5.20 and 4.28. A Monte Carlo experiment by adding assumed observation errors of 5%, 10% and 15% results in similar trend for these stations. After the trend analysis, a set of scenarios are generated based on various hydrological boundaries, infrastructure developments and climate change scenarios. The scenarios are simulated with the quasi-2D hydrodynamic model for the Mekong Delta (Dung, 2011; Manh, 2014) in order to separate and quantify the impacts of flood protection measures to the flood regime in the lower part of the delta in a spatially explicit manner, with a special focus on the urban and economic centers Can Tho and My Thuan. Based on these scenarios the change in flood hazard caused by the infrastructure development that has to be expected is described and possible mitigation actions are proposed.

  9. Surrogate modeling of joint flood risk across coastal watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bass, Benjamin; Bedient, Philip

    2018-03-01

    This study discusses the development and performance of a rapid prediction system capable of representing the joint rainfall-runoff and storm surge flood response of tropical cyclones (TCs) for probabilistic risk analysis. Due to the computational demand required for accurately representing storm surge with the high-fidelity ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) hydrodynamic model and its coupling with additional numerical models to represent rainfall-runoff, a surrogate or statistical model was trained to represent the relationship between hurricane wind- and pressure-field characteristics and their peak joint flood response typically determined from physics based numerical models. This builds upon past studies that have only evaluated surrogate models for predicting peak surge, and provides the first system capable of probabilistically representing joint flood levels from TCs. The utility of this joint flood prediction system is then demonstrated by improving upon probabilistic TC flood risk products, which currently account for storm surge but do not take into account TC associated rainfall-runoff. Results demonstrate the source apportionment of rainfall-runoff versus storm surge and highlight that slight increases in flood risk levels may occur due to the interaction between rainfall-runoff and storm surge as compared to the Federal Emergency Management Association's (FEMAs) current practices.

  10. Spatial Scaling of Global Rainfall and Flood Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devineni, Naresh; Lall, Upmanu; Xi, Chen; Ward, Philip

    2014-05-01

    Floods associated with severe storms are a significant source of risk for property, life and supply chains. These property losses tend to be determined as much by the duration and spatial extent of flooding as by the depth and velocity of inundation. High duration floods are typically induced by persistent rainfall (up to 30 day duration) as seen recently in Thailand, Pakistan, the Ohio and the Mississippi Rivers, France, and Germany. Events related to persistent and recurrent rainfall appear to correspond to the persistence of specific global climate patterns that may be identifiable from global, historical data fields, and also from climate models that project future conditions. In this paper, we investigate the statistical properties of the spatial manifestation of the rainfall exceedances and floods. We present the first ever results on a global analysis of the scaling characteristics of extreme rainfall and flood event duration, volumes and contiguous flooded areas as a result of large scale organization of long duration rainfall events. Results are organized by latitude and with reference to the phases of ENSO, and reveal surprising invariance across latitude. Speculation as to the potential relation to the dynamical factors is presented

  11. Flood Hazard and Risk Analysis in Urban Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Chen-Jia; Hsu, Ming-hsi; Teng, Wei-Hsien; Lin, Tsung-Hsien

    2017-04-01

    Typhoons always induce heavy rainfall during summer and autumn seasons in Taiwan. Extreme weather in recent years often causes severe flooding which result in serious losses of life and property. With the rapid industrial and commercial development, people care about not only the quality of life, but also the safety of life and property. So the impact of life and property due to disaster is the most serious problem concerned by the residents. For the mitigation of the disaster impact, the flood hazard and risk analysis play an important role for the disaster prevention and mitigation. In this study, the vulnerability of Kaohsiung city was evaluated by statistics of social development factor. The hazard factors of Kaohsiung city was calculated by simulated flood depth of six different return periods and four typhoon events which result in serious flooding in Kaohsiung city. The flood risk can be obtained by means of the flood hazard and social vulnerability. The analysis results provide authority to strengthen disaster preparedness and to set up more resources in high risk areas.

  12. Floods in the Niger basin - analysis and attribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aich, V.; Koné, B.; Hattermann, F. F.; Müller, E. N.

    2014-08-01

    This study addresses the increasing flood risk in the Niger basin and assesses the damages that arise from flooding. Statistics from three different sources (EM-DAT, Darthmouth Flood Observatory, NatCat Munich RE) on people affected by floods show positive trends for the entire basin beginning in the 1980s. An assessment of four subregions across the Niger basin indicates even exponential trends for the Sahelian and Sudanian regions. These positive trends for flooding damage match up to a time series of annual maximum discharge (AMAX): the strongest trends in AMAX are detected in the Sahelian and Sudanian regions, where the population is also increasing the fastest and vulnerability generally appears to be very high. The joint effect of these three factors can possibly explain the exponential increase in people affected by floods in these subregions. In a second step, the changes in AMAX are attributed to changes in precipitation and land use via a data-based approach within a hypothesis-testing framework. Analysis of rainfall, heavy precipitation and the runoff coefficient shows a coherent picture of a return to wet conditions in the basin, which we identify as the main driver of the increase in AMAX in the Niger basin. The analysis of flashiness (using the Richards-Baker Index) and the focus on the "Sahel Paradox" of the Sahelian region reveal an additional influence of land-use change, but it seems minor compared to the increase in precipitation.

  13. The Effects of Mitigation Measures on Flood Damage Prevention in Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheol-Hee Son

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzed the characteristics of flood damages and the effects of structural and non-structural flood damage mitigation measures in Korea. First, a theoretical discussion of the structural and non-structural measures to mitigate flood damages was used to select the variables and devise the hypotheses. An analysis was conducted using the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving-Average (ARIMA time series methodology, Korean socioeconomic data, and damage characteristics of major flood events. The effects of flood damage mitigation measures on the extent of flood damages were assessed using an intervention time series model. The major findings were that the intervention effects of structural and non-structural measures were statistically significant from 1958 to 2013 (a period of 55 years and that while the former were ineffective at mitigating flood damages, the latter were successful in doing so. Based on the above findings, policy suggestions for future flood damage mitigation measures in Korea were offered. For structural measures, the government should manage its existing facilities, recover ecosystems of damaged rivers, and devise mitigation measures for urban areas. For non-structural measures, the government should enhance its flood forecasting capacity, revise laws related to flood control and prevention, and update and rationalize land-use plans.

  14. Multiple flood vulnerability assessment approach based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and coordinated development degree model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Weichao; Xu, Kui; Lian, Jijian; Bin, Lingling; Ma, Chao

    2018-05-01

    Flood is a serious challenge that increasingly affects the residents as well as policymakers. Flood vulnerability assessment is becoming gradually relevant in the world. The purpose of this study is to develop an approach to reveal the relationship between exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity for better flood vulnerability assessment, based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method (FCEM) and coordinated development degree model (CDDM). The approach is organized into three parts: establishment of index system, assessment of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, and multiple flood vulnerability assessment. Hydrodynamic model and statistical data are employed for the establishment of index system; FCEM is used to evaluate exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity; and CDDM is applied to express the relationship of the three components of vulnerability. Six multiple flood vulnerability types and four levels are proposed to assess flood vulnerability from multiple perspectives. Then the approach is applied to assess the spatiality of flood vulnerability in Hainan's eastern area, China. Based on the results of multiple flood vulnerability, a decision-making process for rational allocation of limited resources is proposed and applied to the study area. The study shows that multiple flood vulnerability assessment can evaluate vulnerability more completely, and help decision makers learn more information about making decisions in a more comprehensive way. In summary, this study provides a new way for flood vulnerability assessment and disaster prevention decision. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Statistical optics

    CERN Document Server

    Goodman, Joseph W

    2015-01-01

    This book discusses statistical methods that are useful for treating problems in modern optics, and the application of these methods to solving a variety of such problems This book covers a variety of statistical problems in optics, including both theory and applications.  The text covers the necessary background in statistics, statistical properties of light waves of various types, the theory of partial coherence and its applications, imaging with partially coherent light, atmospheric degradations of images, and noise limitations in the detection of light. New topics have been introduced i

  16. Harmonic statistics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eliazar, Iddo, E-mail: eliazar@post.tau.ac.il

    2017-05-15

    The exponential, the normal, and the Poisson statistical laws are of major importance due to their universality. Harmonic statistics are as universal as the three aforementioned laws, but yet they fall short in their ‘public relations’ for the following reason: the full scope of harmonic statistics cannot be described in terms of a statistical law. In this paper we describe harmonic statistics, in their full scope, via an object termed harmonic Poisson process: a Poisson process, over the positive half-line, with a harmonic intensity. The paper reviews the harmonic Poisson process, investigates its properties, and presents the connections of this object to an assortment of topics: uniform statistics, scale invariance, random multiplicative perturbations, Pareto and inverse-Pareto statistics, exponential growth and exponential decay, power-law renormalization, convergence and domains of attraction, the Langevin equation, diffusions, Benford’s law, and 1/f noise. - Highlights: • Harmonic statistics are described and reviewed in detail. • Connections to various statistical laws are established. • Connections to perturbation, renormalization and dynamics are established.

  17. Harmonic statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eliazar, Iddo

    2017-01-01

    The exponential, the normal, and the Poisson statistical laws are of major importance due to their universality. Harmonic statistics are as universal as the three aforementioned laws, but yet they fall short in their ‘public relations’ for the following reason: the full scope of harmonic statistics cannot be described in terms of a statistical law. In this paper we describe harmonic statistics, in their full scope, via an object termed harmonic Poisson process: a Poisson process, over the positive half-line, with a harmonic intensity. The paper reviews the harmonic Poisson process, investigates its properties, and presents the connections of this object to an assortment of topics: uniform statistics, scale invariance, random multiplicative perturbations, Pareto and inverse-Pareto statistics, exponential growth and exponential decay, power-law renormalization, convergence and domains of attraction, the Langevin equation, diffusions, Benford’s law, and 1/f noise. - Highlights: • Harmonic statistics are described and reviewed in detail. • Connections to various statistical laws are established. • Connections to perturbation, renormalization and dynamics are established.

  18. Statistical methods

    CERN Document Server

    Szulc, Stefan

    1965-01-01

    Statistical Methods provides a discussion of the principles of the organization and technique of research, with emphasis on its application to the problems in social statistics. This book discusses branch statistics, which aims to develop practical ways of collecting and processing numerical data and to adapt general statistical methods to the objectives in a given field.Organized into five parts encompassing 22 chapters, this book begins with an overview of how to organize the collection of such information on individual units, primarily as accomplished by government agencies. This text then

  19. Histoplasmosis Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Testing Treatment & Outcomes Health Professionals Statistics More Resources Candidiasis Candida infections of the mouth, throat, and esophagus Vaginal candidiasis Invasive candidiasis Definition Symptoms Risk & Prevention Sources Diagnosis ...

  20. Reserve Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — This vector dataset depicts the 1% annual flood boundary (otherwise known as special flood hazard area or 100 year flood boundary) for its specified area. The data...

  1. Elephant Butte Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — This vector dataset depicts the 1% annual flood boundary (otherwise known as special flood hazard area or 100 year flood boundary) for its specified area. The data...

  2. The Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iceland, Charles

    2015-04-01

    As population growth and economic growth take place, and as climate change accelerates, many regions across the globe are finding themselves increasingly vulnerable to flooding. A recent OECD study of the exposure of the world's large port cities to coastal flooding found that 40 million people were exposed to a 1 in 100 year coastal flood event in 2005, and the total value of exposed assets was about US 3,000 billion, or 5% of global GDP. By the 2070s, those numbers were estimated to increase to 150 million people and US 35,000 billion, or roughly 9% of projected global GDP. Impoverished people in developing countries are particularly at risk because they often live in flood-prone areas and lack the resources to respond. WRI and its Dutch partners - Deltares, IVM-VU University Amsterdam, Utrecht University, and PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency - are in the initial stages of developing a robust set of river flood and coastal storm surge risk measures that show the extent of flooding under a variety of scenarios (both current and future), together with the projected human and economic impacts of these flood scenarios. These flood risk data and information will be accessible via an online, easy-to-use Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer. We will also investigate the viability, benefits, and costs of a wide array of flood risk reduction measures that could be implemented in a variety of geographic and socio-economic settings. Together, the activities we propose have the potential for saving hundreds of thousands of lives and strengthening the resiliency and security of many millions more, especially those who are most vulnerable. Mr. Iceland will present Version 1.0 of the Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer and provide a preview of additional elements of the Analyzer to be released in the coming years.

  3. Flood Risk, Flood Mitigation, and Location Choice: Evaluating the National Flood Insurance Program's Community Rating System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Qin; Davlasheridze, Meri

    2016-06-01

    Climate change is expected to worsen the negative effects of natural disasters like floods. The negative impacts, however, can be mitigated by individuals' adjustments through migration and relocation behaviors. Previous literature has identified flood risk as one significant driver in relocation decisions, but no prior study examines the effect of the National Flood Insurance Program's voluntary program-the Community Rating System (CRS)-on residential location choice. This article fills this gap and tests the hypothesis that flood risk and the CRS-creditable flood control activities affect residential location choices. We employ a two-stage sorting model to empirically estimate the effects. In the first stage, individuals' risk perception and preference heterogeneity for the CRS activities are considered, while mean effects of flood risk and the CRS activities are estimated in the second stage. We then estimate heterogeneous marginal willingness to pay (WTP) for the CRS activities by category. Results show that age, ethnicity and race, educational attainment, and prior exposure to risk explain risk perception. We find significant values for the CRS-creditable mitigation activities, which provides empirical evidence for the benefits associated with the program. The marginal WTP for an additional credit point earned for public information activities, including hazard disclosure, is found to be the highest. Results also suggest that water amenities dominate flood risk. Thus, high amenity values may increase exposure to flood risk, and flood mitigation projects should be strategized in coastal regions accordingly. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  4. Flooding hazards from sea extremes and subsidence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Carlo; Vognsen, Karsten; Broge, Niels

    2015-01-01

    of tide gauge records, statistics that allow also for projections of SLR, meteorological variability, and extremes with a very low probability of occurrence are provided. Land movement is researched with a focus on short term surface height variability in the groundwater-ocean interface that, together...... with longer term processes, may cause substantial subsidence and impact future water management and adaptation strategies in flood prone coastal areas. Field studies’ results from repeated precise levelling, GPS setups, and ocean and groundwater level monitoring in Thyborøn and Aarhus are integrated...

  5. Concepts of Urban Drainage and Flood Protection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harremoës, Poul

    1990-01-01

    The significance of the introduction of modern computer technology to design, analysis, operation and control of sewer systems during rain is analyzed. With new tools come new basic concepts and new engineering criteria for performance. The most significant developments are: the capability...... to calculate surcharging and flooding, rather than just relating to pipe capacity performance criteria; the capability of calculating long series of rain record in order to derive proper statistics on the pollutional load on the environment; and finally the capability of dynamically controlling the system...

  6. Extensive spatio-temporal assessment of flood events by application of pair-copulas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Schulte

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Although the consequences of floods are strongly related to their peak discharges, a statistical classification of flood events that only depends on these peaks may not be sufficient for flood risk assessments. In many cases, the flood risk depends on a number of event characteristics. In case of an extreme flood, the whole river basin may be affected instead of a single watershed, and there will be superposition of peak discharges from adjoining catchments. These peaks differ in size and timing according to the spatial distribution of precipitation and watershed-specific processes of flood formation. Thus, the spatial characteristics of flood events should be considered as stochastic processes. Hence, there is a need for a multivariate statistical approach that represents the spatial interdependencies between floods from different watersheds and their coincidences. This paper addresses the question how these spatial interdependencies can be quantified. Each flood event is not only assessed with regard to its local conditions but also according to its spatio-temporal pattern within the river basin. In this paper we characterise the coincidence of floods by trivariate Joe-copula and pair-copulas. Their ability to link the marginal distributions of the variates while maintaining their dependence structure characterizes them as an adequate method. The results indicate that the trivariate copula model is able to represent the multivariate probabilities of the occurrence of simultaneous flood peaks well. It is suggested that the approach of this paper is very useful for the risk-based design of retention basins as it accounts for the complex spatio-temporal interactions of floods.

  7. The Development of Brazilian Municipalities Flooded by Hydropower Plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araujo, N.; Moretto, E. M.; Roquetti, D. R.; Beduschi, L. C.; Praia, A.; Pulice, S.; Albiach, E.; Athayde, S.

    2016-12-01

    Hydropower plants cause negative environmental impacts during the phases of construction and operation. On the other hand, there is a general assumption that these projects also induce local development of the affected places, since there is a great influx of social and financial capital brought locally, especially during the construction phase the relationship between hydropower plant implementation s and local development has been controversial in the Environmental Impact Assessment field, and there is no empirical evidence showing how hydroelectric dam construction affects local development. Considering municipal development as a kind of local development and operationalizing the concept of human development by adopting income, longevity and education dimensions defined by Amartya Sen, this study aimed to verify empirical evidences regarding the role of hydropower plants in human development of their flooded municipalities in Brazil. For this, we considered 134 hydroelectric plants and correspondent 641 flooded municipalities, for which 155 human development indicators were obtained for the period of 2000 to 2010. Results obtained from statistical correlation analysis and their assumption tests showed that increases in the municipal flooded area and increases in the period of flooding - to which a given municipality is submitted - were associated with lower performances of human development indicators. Specifically, increases in social inequality, poverty and lower performances of longevity and education were detected for the flooded municipalities. We also found that the financial compensation was associated with better performance of municipal income and lower performances of education and longevity. Finally, approaching the growth poles theory of François Perroux and the productive linkages theory of Albert Hirschman, we suggest that the size of the flooded areas, the flooding period and the financial compensation may lead to an enclave situation in

  8. Improving Flood Predictions in Data-Scarce Basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vimal, Solomon; Zanardo, Stefano; Rafique, Farhat; Hilberts, Arno

    2017-04-01

    Flood modeling methodology at Risk Management Solutions Ltd. has evolved over several years with the development of continental scale flood risk models spanning most of Europe, the United States and Japan. Pluvial (rain fed) and fluvial (river fed) flood maps represent the basis for the assessment of regional flood risk. These maps are derived by solving the 1D energy balance equation for river routing and 2D shallow water equation (SWE) for overland flow. The models are run with high performance computing and GPU based solvers as the time taken for simulation is large in such continental scale modeling. These results are validated with data from authorities and business partners, and have been used in the insurance industry for many years. While this methodology has been proven extremely effective in regions where the quality and availability of data are high, its application is very challenging in other regions where data are scarce. This is generally the case for low and middle income countries, where simpler approaches are needed for flood risk modeling and assessment. In this study we explore new methods to make use of modeling results obtained in data-rich contexts to improve predictive ability in data-scarce contexts. As an example, based on our modeled flood maps in data-rich countries, we identify statistical relationships between flood characteristics and topographic and climatic indicators, and test their generalization across physical domains. Moreover, we apply the Height Above Nearest Drainage (HAND)approach to estimate "probable" saturated areas for different return period flood events as functions of basin characteristics. This work falls into the well-established research field of Predictions in Ungauged Basins.

  9. Interacting effects of insects and flooding on wood decomposition.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael D Ulyshen

    Full Text Available Saproxylic arthropods are thought to play an important role in wood decomposition but very few efforts have been made to quantify their contributions to the process and the factors controlling their activities are not well understood. In the current study, mesh exclusion bags were used to quantify how arthropods affect loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L. decomposition rates in both seasonally flooded and unflooded forests over a 31-month period in the southeastern United States. Wood specific gravity (based on initial wood volume was significantly lower in bolts placed in unflooded forests and for those unprotected from insects. Approximately 20.5% and 13.7% of specific gravity loss after 31 months was attributable to insect activity in flooded and unflooded forests, respectively. Importantly, minimal between-treatment differences in water content and the results from a novel test carried out separately suggest the mesh bags had no significant impact on wood mass loss beyond the exclusion of insects. Subterranean termites (Isoptera: Rhinotermitidae: Reticulitermes spp. were 5-6 times more active below-ground in unflooded forests compared to flooded forests based on wooden monitoring stakes. They were also slightly more active above-ground in unflooded forests but these differences were not statistically significant. Similarly, seasonal flooding had no detectable effect on above-ground beetle (Coleoptera richness or abundance. Although seasonal flooding strongly reduced Reticulitermes activity below-ground, it can be concluded from an insignificant interaction between forest type and exclusion treatment that reduced above-ground decomposition rates in seasonally flooded forests were due largely to suppressed microbial activity at those locations. The findings from this study indicate that southeastern U.S. arthropod communities accelerate above-ground wood decomposition significantly and to a similar extent in both flooded and unflooded forests

  10. The Influence of Flooding Risk on Infrastructure Development in Western Sydney

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alan Jeary

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Data relating to flood events in the west Sydney area of Windsor, have been re-analysed using extreme value statistics, and the analysis has shown that the risk of occurrence of the probable maximum flood is greater than previously assumed using conventional statistical methods.The response of the New South Wales Government to the perceived risk is discussed and the efficacy of their strategy of relying on passing information to local residents has been tested by the use of a survey of residents of the area.The survey of Windsor residents showed that a significant percentage of the population had no knowledge of the flood risk. Of the rest of the population there was little or no knowledge of the effects that a severe flood might have, and there was little appreciation of the yearly risk of floods that would affect the town. Overall, it was concluded that the main mitigation strategy of government has been ineffective.

  11. The Historical Flood Of July 2008 From Vaser River Basin, Romania. Causes, Effects And Flood Control Actions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sima Andrei

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Floods is an experience perceived by society as unexpected, unexplainable and traumatizing and nowadays a threat to humanity more than ever. Among the natural phenomena which negatively affect human activities, floods are the ones which usually have the most significant consequences. The research, evaluations and statistics related to these phenomena do not reveal the drama and serious consequences that come with floods. It was proven that the increase of these extreme hydrological phenomena it is closely related to the anthropic activities from the area. Vaser basin is the most significant sub-basin of Vișeu river basin, contributing with 28% from the total flow of Vișeu river. Having a strong touristic and economic potential, the basin is often threatened by flash floods which usually have devastating effects. During July 2008 there was recorded the most significant flood from the history of hydrometric activity that led to substantial damage and death among locals. The present paper aims to analyze this historical flood, identifying the causes, effects, as well as the methods to control this extreme hydric phenomenon.

  12. Floods in the Saguenay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martel, R.; Michaud, E.; Tousignant, P.M.

    1997-01-01

    Footage of a natural disaster that occurred between July 20 and 25 1996, in the Saguenay region of Quebec was documented. A heavy downpour of rain raised the water level of the Kenogami Lake reservoir beyond its capacity. This created huge pressure on its dam that upset the fragile balance between nature and rock. The dam raptured, resulting in a flood of previously unseen proportions. The Riviere au Sable in Jonquiere became an overwhelming body of water. The video showed how the shores of the river were eroded and how apartment buildings were engulfed by the torrent of water. A newly constructed electricity power plant had to be decommissioned, roads were washed away and entire neighborhoods were devastated. The devastation suffered by the cities of Chicoutimi, Jonquiere, Ville de la Baie, Ferland-Boileau, and L'Anse St-Jean was recorded. Thousands of victims of the disaster were evacuated with the help of the Canadian Armed Forces. Some of the work of reconstruction, begun even before the total retreat of the flood, involved restoration of roads, bridges and communication networks, was also shown

  13. Statistical Diversions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petocz, Peter; Sowey, Eric

    2012-01-01

    The term "data snooping" refers to the practice of choosing which statistical analyses to apply to a set of data after having first looked at those data. Data snooping contradicts a fundamental precept of applied statistics, that the scheme of analysis is to be planned in advance. In this column, the authors shall elucidate the…

  14. Statistical Diversions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petocz, Peter; Sowey, Eric

    2008-01-01

    In this article, the authors focus on hypothesis testing--that peculiarly statistical way of deciding things. Statistical methods for testing hypotheses were developed in the 1920s and 1930s by some of the most famous statisticians, in particular Ronald Fisher, Jerzy Neyman and Egon Pearson, who laid the foundations of almost all modern methods of…

  15. Scan Statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Glaz, Joseph

    2009-01-01

    Suitable for graduate students and researchers in applied probability and statistics, as well as for scientists in biology, computer science, pharmaceutical science and medicine, this title brings together a collection of chapters illustrating the depth and diversity of theory, methods and applications in the area of scan statistics.

  16. Practical Statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Lyons, L.

    2016-01-01

    Accelerators and detectors are expensive, both in terms of money and human effort. It is thus important to invest effort in performing a good statistical anal- ysis of the data, in order to extract the best information from it. This series of five lectures deals with practical aspects of statistical issues that arise in typical High Energy Physics analyses.

  17. Flood risk management in Italy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mysiak, J.; Testella, F.; Bonaiuto, M.

    2013-01-01

    Italy's recent history is punctuated with devastating flood disasters claiming high death toll and causing vast but underestimated economic, social and environmental damage. The responses to major flood and landslide disasters such as the Polesine (1951), Vajont (1963), Firenze (1966), Valtelina...

  18. Descriptive statistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nick, Todd G

    2007-01-01

    Statistics is defined by the Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) thesaurus as the science and art of collecting, summarizing, and analyzing data that are subject to random variation. The two broad categories of summarizing and analyzing data are referred to as descriptive and inferential statistics. This chapter considers the science and art of summarizing data where descriptive statistics and graphics are used to display data. In this chapter, we discuss the fundamentals of descriptive statistics, including describing qualitative and quantitative variables. For describing quantitative variables, measures of location and spread, for example the standard deviation, are presented along with graphical presentations. We also discuss distributions of statistics, for example the variance, as well as the use of transformations. The concepts in this chapter are useful for uncovering patterns within the data and for effectively presenting the results of a project.

  19. Internal flooding analyses results of Slovak NPPs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sopira, Vladimir

    2000-01-01

    The assessment of the flood risk was the objective of the internal flooding analysis for NPPs Bohunice V1, V2 and Mochovce. All important flooding sources were identified. The rooms containing safety important components were analyzed from the point of view of: Integrity of flood boundaries; Capability for drainage; Flood signalisation; Flood localization and liquidation; Vulnerability of safety system component. The redundancies of safety systems are located mostly separately and no flood can endanger more than single train. It can be concluded that NPPs with WWER-440 are very safe against the flooding initiating event

  20. The Complex Relationship Between Heavy Storms and Floods: Implication on Stormwater Drainage design and Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demissie, Y.; Mortuza, M. R.; Moges, E.; Yan, E.; Li, H. Y.

    2017-12-01

    Due to the lack of historical and future streamflow data for flood frequency analysis at or near most drainage sites, it is a common practice to directly estimate the design flood (maximum discharge or volume of stream for a given return period) based on storm frequency analysis and the resulted Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves. Such analysis assumes a direct relationship between storms and floods with, for example, the 10-year rainfall expected to produce the 10-year flood. However, in reality, a storm is just one factor among the many other hydrological and metrological factors that can affect the peak flow and hydrograph. Consequently, a heavy storm does not necessarily always lead to flooding or a flood events with the same frequency. This is evident by the observed difference in the seasonality of heavy storms and floods in most regions. In order to understand site specific causal-effect relationship between heavy storms and floods and improve the flood analysis for stormwater drainage design and management, we have examined the contributions of various factors that affect floods using statistical and information theory methods. Based on the identified dominant causal-effect relationships, hydrologic and probability analyses were conducted to develop the runoff IDF curves taking into consideration the snowmelt and rain-on-snow effect, the difference in the storm and flood seasonality, soil moisture conditions, and catchment potential for flash and riverine flooding. The approach was demonstrated using data from military installations located in different parts of the United States. The accuracy of the flood frequency analysis and the resulted runoff IDF curves were evaluated based on the runoff IDF curves developed from streamflow measurements.

  1. Developing a Malaysia flood model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haseldine, Lucy; Baxter, Stephen; Wheeler, Phil; Thomson, Tina

    2014-05-01

    Faced with growing exposures in Malaysia, insurers have a need for models to help them assess their exposure to flood losses. The need for an improved management of flood risks has been further highlighted by the 2011 floods in Thailand and recent events in Malaysia. The increasing demand for loss accumulation tools in Malaysia has lead to the development of the first nationwide probabilistic Malaysia flood model, which we present here. The model is multi-peril, including river flooding for thousands of kilometres of river and rainfall-driven surface water flooding in major cities, which may cause losses equivalent to river flood in some high-density urban areas. The underlying hazard maps are based on a 30m digital surface model (DSM) and 1D/2D hydraulic modelling in JFlow and RFlow. Key mitigation schemes such as the SMART tunnel and drainage capacities are also considered in the model. The probabilistic element of the model is driven by a stochastic event set based on rainfall data, hence enabling per-event and annual figures to be calculated for a specific insurance portfolio and a range of return periods. Losses are estimated via depth-damage vulnerability functions which link the insured damage to water depths for different property types in Malaysia. The model provides a unique insight into Malaysian flood risk profiles and provides insurers with return period estimates of flood damage and loss to property portfolios through loss exceedance curve outputs. It has been successfully validated against historic flood events in Malaysia and is now being successfully used by insurance companies in the Malaysian market to obtain reinsurance cover.

  2. Texas floods of 1940

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breeding, Seth D.

    1948-01-01

    Floods occurred in Texas during, June, July, and November 1940 that exceeded known stages on many small streams and at a few places on the larger streams. Stages at several stream-gaging stations exceeded the maximum known at those places since the collection of daily records began. A storm, haying its axis generally on a north-south line from Cameron to Victoria and extending across the Brazos, Colorado, Lavaca, and Guadalupe River Basins, caused heavy rainfall over a large part of south-central Texas. The maximum recorded rain of 22.7 inches for the 2-day period June 29-30 occurred at Engle. Of this amount, 17.5 inches fell in the 12-hour period between 8 p.m. June 29, and 8 a.m. June 30. Light rains fell at a number of places on June 28, and additional light rains fell at many places within the area from July 1 to 4. During the period June 28 to July 4 more than 20 inches of rain fell over an area of 300 square miles, more than 15 inches over 1,920 square miles, and more than 10 inches over 5,100 square miles. The average annual rainfall for the area experiencing the heaviest rainfall during this storm is about 35 inches. Farming is largely confined to the fertile flood plains in much of the area subjected to the record-breaking floods in June and July. Therefore these floods, coming at the height of the growing season, caused severe losses to crops. Much damage was done also to highways and railways. The city of Hallettsville suffered the greatest damage of any urban area. The Lavaca River at that place reached a stage 8 feet higher than ever known before, drowned several people, destroyed many homes, and submerged almost the entire business district. The maximum discharge there was 93,100 second-feet from a drainage area of 101 square miles. Dry Creek near Smithville produced a maximum discharge of 1,879 second-feet from an area of 1.48 square miles and a runoff of 11.3 inches in a 2-day period from a rainfall of 19.5 inches. The area in the Colorado River

  3. A National Assessment of Changes in Flood Exposure in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, N.; Qiang, Y.; Cai, H.; Zou, L.

    2017-12-01

    Analyzing flood exposure and its temporal trend is the first step toward understanding flood risk, flood hazard, and flood vulnerability. This presentation is based on a national, county-based study assessing the changes in population and urban areas in high-risk flood zones from 2001-2011 in the contiguous United States. Satellite land use land cover data, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)'s 100-year flood maps, and census data were used to extract the proportion of developed (urban) land in flood zones by county in the two time points, and indices of difference were calculated. Local Moran's I statistic was applied to identify hotspots of increase in urban area in flood zones, and geographically weighted regression was used to estimate the population in flood zones from the land cover data. Results show that in 2011, an estimate of about 25.3 million people (8.3% of the total population) lived in the high-risk flood zones. Nationally, the ratio of urban development in flood zones is less than the ratio of land in flood zones, implying that Americans were responsive to flood hazards by avoiding development in flood zones. However, this trend varied from place to place, with coastal counties having less urban development in flood zones than the inland counties. Furthermore, the contrast between coastal and inland counties increased during 2001-2011. Finally, several exceptions from the trend (hotspots) were detected, most notably New York City and Miami where significant increases in urban development in flood zones were found. This assessment provides important baseline information on the spatial patterns of flood exposure and their changes from 2001-2011. The study pinpoints regions that may need further investigations and better policy to reduce the overall flood risks. Methodologically, the study demonstrates that pixelated land cover data can be integrated with other natural and human data to investigate important societal problems. The same

  4. Challenges in estimating the health impact of Hurricane Sandy using macro-level flood data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lieberman-Cribbin, W.; Liu, B.; Schneider, S.; Schwartz, R.; Taioli, E.

    2016-12-01

    Background: Hurricane Sandy caused extensive physical and economic damage but the long-term health impacts are unknown. Flooding is a central component of hurricane exposure, influencing health through multiple pathways that unfold over months after flooding recedes. This study assesses concordance in Federal Emergency Management (FEMA) and self-reported flood exposure after Hurricane Sandy to elucidate discrepancies in flood exposure assessments. Methods: Three meter resolution New York State flood data was obtained from the FEMA Modeling Task Force Hurricane Sandy Impact Analysis. FEMA data was compared to self-reported flood data obtained through validated questionnaires from New York City and Long Island residents following Sandy. Flooding was defined as both dichotomous and continuous variables and analyses were performed in SAS v9.4 and ArcGIS 10.3.1. Results: There was a moderate agreement between FEMA and self-reported flooding (Kappa statistic 0.46) and continuous (Spearman's correlation coefficient 0.50) measures of flood exposure. Flooding was self-reported and recorded by FEMA in 23.6% of cases, while agreement between the two measures on no flooding was 51.1%. Flooding was self-reported but not recorded by FEMA in 8.5% of cases, while flooding was not self-reported but indicated by FEMA in 16.8% of cases. In this last instance, 84% of people (173/207; 83.6%) resided in an apartment (no flooding reported). Spatially, the most concordance resided in the interior of New York City / Long Island, while the greatest areas of discordance were concentrated in the Rockaway Peninsula and Long Beach, especially among those living in apartments. Conclusions: There were significant discrepancies between FEMA and self-reported flood data. While macro-level FEMA flood data is a relatively less expensive and faster way to provide exposure estimates spanning larger geographic areas affected by Hurricane Sandy than micro-level estimates from cohort studies, macro

  5. Semiconductor statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Blakemore, J S

    1962-01-01

    Semiconductor Statistics presents statistics aimed at complementing existing books on the relationships between carrier densities and transport effects. The book is divided into two parts. Part I provides introductory material on the electron theory of solids, and then discusses carrier statistics for semiconductors in thermal equilibrium. Of course a solid cannot be in true thermodynamic equilibrium if any electrical current is passed; but when currents are reasonably small the distribution function is but little perturbed, and the carrier distribution for such a """"quasi-equilibrium"""" co

  6. Statistical Physics

    CERN Document Server

    Wannier, Gregory Hugh

    1966-01-01

    Until recently, the field of statistical physics was traditionally taught as three separate subjects: thermodynamics, statistical mechanics, and kinetic theory. This text, a forerunner in its field and now a classic, was the first to recognize the outdated reasons for their separation and to combine the essentials of the three subjects into one unified presentation of thermal physics. It has been widely adopted in graduate and advanced undergraduate courses, and is recommended throughout the field as an indispensable aid to the independent study and research of statistical physics.Designed for

  7. Statistics Clinic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feiveson, Alan H.; Foy, Millennia; Ploutz-Snyder, Robert; Fiedler, James

    2014-01-01

    Do you have elevated p-values? Is the data analysis process getting you down? Do you experience anxiety when you need to respond to criticism of statistical methods in your manuscript? You may be suffering from Insufficient Statistical Support Syndrome (ISSS). For symptomatic relief of ISSS, come for a free consultation with JSC biostatisticians at our help desk during the poster sessions at the HRP Investigators Workshop. Get answers to common questions about sample size, missing data, multiple testing, when to trust the results of your analyses and more. Side effects may include sudden loss of statistics anxiety, improved interpretation of your data, and increased confidence in your results.

  8. Improving Gas Flooding Efficiency

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reid Grigg; Robert Svec; Zheng Zeng; Alexander Mikhalin; Yi Lin; Guoqiang Yin; Solomon Ampir; Rashid Kassim

    2008-03-31

    This study focuses on laboratory studies with related analytical and numerical models, as well as work with operators for field tests to enhance our understanding of and capabilities for more efficient enhanced oil recovery (EOR). Much of the work has been performed at reservoir conditions. This includes a bubble chamber and several core flood apparatus developed or modified to measure interfacial tension (IFT), critical micelle concentration (CMC), foam durability, surfactant sorption at reservoir conditions, and pressure and temperature effects on foam systems.Carbon dioxide and N{sub 2} systems have been considered, under both miscible and immiscible conditions. The injection of CO2 into brine-saturated sandstone and carbonate core results in brine saturation reduction in the range of 62 to 82% brine in the tests presented in this paper. In each test, over 90% of the reduction occurred with less than 0.5 PV of CO{sub 2} injected, with very little additional brine production after 0.5 PV of CO{sub 2} injected. Adsorption of all considered surfactant is a significant problem. Most of the effect is reversible, but the amount required for foaming is large in terms of volume and cost for all considered surfactants. Some foams increase resistance to the value beyond what is practical in the reservoir. Sandstone, limestone, and dolomite core samples were tested. Dissolution of reservoir rock and/or cement, especially carbonates, under acid conditions of CO2 injection is a potential problem in CO2 injection into geological formations. Another potential change in reservoir injectivity and productivity will be the precipitation of dissolved carbonates as the brine flows and pressure decreases. The results of this report provide methods for determining surfactant sorption and can be used to aid in the determination of surfactant requirements for reservoir use in a CO{sub 2}-foam flood for mobility control. It also provides data to be used to determine rock permeability

  9. Challenges of Modeling Flood Risk at Large Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guin, J.; Simic, M.; Rowe, J.

    2009-04-01

    Flood risk management is a major concern for many nations and for the insurance sector in places where this peril is insured. A prerequisite for risk management, whether in the public sector or in the private sector is an accurate estimation of the risk. Mitigation measures and traditional flood management techniques are most successful when the problem is viewed at a large regional scale such that all inter-dependencies in a river network are well understood. From an insurance perspective the jury is still out there on whether flood is an insurable peril. However, with advances in modeling techniques and computer power it is possible to develop models that allow proper risk quantification at the scale suitable for a viable insurance market for flood peril. In order to serve the insurance market a model has to be event-simulation based and has to provide financial risk estimation that forms the basis for risk pricing, risk transfer and risk management at all levels of insurance industry at large. In short, for a collection of properties, henceforth referred to as a portfolio, the critical output of the model is an annual probability distribution of economic losses from a single flood occurrence (flood event) or from an aggregation of all events in any given year. In this paper, the challenges of developing such a model are discussed in the context of Great Britain for which a model has been developed. The model comprises of several, physically motivated components so that the primary attributes of the phenomenon are accounted for. The first component, the rainfall generator simulates a continuous series of rainfall events in space and time over thousands of years, which are physically realistic while maintaining the statistical properties of rainfall at all locations over the model domain. A physically based runoff generation module feeds all the rivers in Great Britain, whose total length of stream links amounts to about 60,000 km. A dynamical flow routing

  10. Image Statistics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wendelberger, Laura Jean [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-08-08

    In large datasets, it is time consuming or even impossible to pick out interesting images. Our proposed solution is to find statistics to quantify the information in each image and use those to identify and pick out images of interest.

  11. Accident Statistics

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — Accident statistics available on the Coast Guard’s website by state, year, and one variable to obtain tables and/or graphs. Data from reports has been loaded for...

  12. CMS Statistics

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The CMS Center for Strategic Planning produces an annual CMS Statistics reference booklet that provides a quick reference for summary information about health...

  13. WPRDC Statistics

    Data.gov (United States)

    Allegheny County / City of Pittsburgh / Western PA Regional Data Center — Data about the usage of the WPRDC site and its various datasets, obtained by combining Google Analytics statistics with information from the WPRDC's data portal.

  14. Multiparametric statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Serdobolskii, Vadim Ivanovich

    2007-01-01

    This monograph presents mathematical theory of statistical models described by the essentially large number of unknown parameters, comparable with sample size but can also be much larger. In this meaning, the proposed theory can be called "essentially multiparametric". It is developed on the basis of the Kolmogorov asymptotic approach in which sample size increases along with the number of unknown parameters.This theory opens a way for solution of central problems of multivariate statistics, which up until now have not been solved. Traditional statistical methods based on the idea of an infinite sampling often break down in the solution of real problems, and, dependent on data, can be inefficient, unstable and even not applicable. In this situation, practical statisticians are forced to use various heuristic methods in the hope the will find a satisfactory solution.Mathematical theory developed in this book presents a regular technique for implementing new, more efficient versions of statistical procedures. ...

  15. Gonorrhea Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Search Form Controls Cancel Submit Search the CDC Gonorrhea Note: Javascript is disabled or is not supported ... Twitter STD on Facebook Sexually Transmitted Diseases (STDs) Gonorrhea Statistics Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Gonorrhea ...

  16. Reversible Statistics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tryggestad, Kjell

    2004-01-01

    The study aims is to describe how the inclusion and exclusion of materials and calculative devices construct the boundaries and distinctions between statistical facts and artifacts in economics. My methodological approach is inspired by John Graunt's (1667) Political arithmetic and more recent work...... within constructivism and the field of Science and Technology Studies (STS). The result of this approach is here termed reversible statistics, reconstructing the findings of a statistical study within economics in three different ways. It is argued that all three accounts are quite normal, albeit...... in different ways. The presence and absence of diverse materials, both natural and political, is what distinguishes them from each other. Arguments are presented for a more symmetric relation between the scientific statistical text and the reader. I will argue that a more symmetric relation can be achieved...

  17. Vital statistics

    CERN Document Server

    MacKenzie, Dana

    2004-01-01

    The drawbacks of using 19th-century mathematics in physics and astronomy are illustrated. To continue with the expansion of the knowledge about the cosmos, the scientists will have to come in terms with modern statistics. Some researchers have deliberately started importing techniques that are used in medical research. However, the physicists need to identify the brand of statistics that will be suitable for them, and make a choice between the Bayesian and the frequentists approach. (Edited abstract).

  18. Magnitude of flood flows for selected annual exceedance probabilities in Rhode Island through 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarriello, Phillip J.; Ahearn, Elizabeth A.; Levin, Sara B.

    2012-01-01

    Heavy persistent rains from late February through March 2010 caused severe widespread flooding in Rhode Island that set or nearly set record flows and water levels at many long-term streamgages in the State. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey, in partnership with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, conducted a study to update estimates of flood magnitudes at streamgages and regional equations for estimating flood flows at ungaged locations. This report provides information needed for flood plain management, transportation infrastructure design, flood insurance studies, and other purposes that can help minimize future flood damages and risks. The magnitudes of floods were determined from the annual peak flows at 43 streamgages in Rhode Island (20 sites), Connecticut (14 sites), and Massachusetts (9 sites) using the standard Bulletin 17B log-Pearson type III method and a modification of this method called the expected moments algorithm (EMA) for 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability (AEP) floods. Annual-peak flows were analyzed for the period of record through the 2010 water year; however, records were extended at 23 streamgages using the maintenance of variance extension (MOVE) procedure to best represent the longest period possible for determining the generalized skew and flood magnitudes. Generalized least square regression equations were developed from the flood quantiles computed at 41 streamgages (2 streamgages in Rhode Island with reported flood quantiles were not used in the regional regression because of regulation or redundancy) and their respective basin characteristics to estimate magnitude of floods at ungaged sites. Of 55 basin characteristics evaluated as potential explanatory variables, 3 were statistically significant—drainage area, stream density, and basin storage. The pseudo-coefficient of determination (pseudo-R2) indicates these three explanatory variables explain 95 to 96 percent of the variance

  19. Assessing the environmental justice consequences of flood risk: a case study in Miami, Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montgomery, Marilyn C.; Chakraborty, Jayajit

    2015-09-01

    Recent environmental justice (EJ) research has emphasized the need to analyze social inequities in the distribution of natural hazards such as hurricanes and floods, and examine intra-ethnic diversity in patterns of EJ. This study contributes to the emerging EJ scholarship on exposure to flooding and ethnic heterogeneity by analyzing the racial/ethnic and socioeconomic characteristics of the population residing within coastal and inland flood risk zones in the Miami Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), Florida—one of the most ethnically diverse MSAs in the U.S. and one of the most hurricane-prone areas in the world. We examine coastal and inland flood zones separately because of differences in amenities such as water views and beach access. Instead of treating the Hispanic population as a homogenous group, we disaggregate the Hispanic category into relevant country-of-origin subgroups. Inequities in flood risk exposure are statistically analyzed using socio-demographic variables derived from the 2010 U.S. Census and 2007-2011 American Community Survey estimates, and 100-year flood risk zones from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Social vulnerability is represented with two neighborhood deprivation indices called economic insecurity and instability. We also analyze the presence of seasonal/vacation homes and proximity to public beach access sites as water-related amenity variables. Logistic regression modeling is utilized to estimate the odds of neighborhood-level exposure to coastal and inland 100-year flood risks. Results indicate that neighborhoods with greater percentages of non-Hispanic Blacks, Hispanics, and Hispanic subgroups of Colombians and Puerto Ricans are exposed to inland flood risks in areas without water-related amenities, while Mexicans are inequitably exposed to coastal flood risks. Our findings demonstrate the importance of treating coastal and inland flood risks separately while controlling for water-related amenities, and

  20. Flooding Fragility Experiments and Prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Curtis L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Tahhan, Antonio [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Muchmore, Cody [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Nichols, Larinda [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Bhandari, Bishwo [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Pope, Chad [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-09-01

    This report describes the work that has been performed on flooding fragility, both the experimental tests being carried out and the probabilistic fragility predictive models being produced in order to use the text results. Flooding experiments involving full-scale doors have commenced in the Portal Evaluation Tank. The goal of these experiments is to develop a full-scale component flooding experiment protocol and to acquire data that can be used to create Bayesian regression models representing the fragility of these components. This work is in support of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluation research and development.

  1. Climate and floods still govern California levee breaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Florsheim, J.L.; Dettinger, M.D.

    2007-01-01

    Even in heavily engineered river systems, climate still governs flood variability and thus still drives many levee breaks and geomorphic changes. We assemble a 155-year record of levee breaks for a major California river system to find that breaks occurred in 25% of years during the 20th Century. A relation between levee breaks and river discharge is present that sets a discharge threshold above which most levee breaks occurred. That threshold corresponds to small floods with recurrence intervals of ???2-3 years. Statistical analysis illustrates that levee breaks and peak discharges cycle (broadly) on a 12-15 year time scale, in time with warm-wet storm patterns in California, but more slowly or more quickly than ENSO and PDO climate phenomena, respectively. Notably, these variations and thresholds persist through the 20th Century, suggesting that historical flood-control effects have not reduced the occurrence or frequency of levee breaks. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

  2. Structural evaluation of multifunctional flood defenses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Voorendt, M.Z.; Kothuis, Baukje; Kok, Matthijs

    2017-01-01

    Flood risk reduction aims to minimize losses in low-lying areas. One of the ways to reduce flood risks is to protect land by means of flood defenses. The Netherlands has a long tradition of flood protection and, therefore, a wide variety of technical reports written

  3. Local Flood Action Groups: Governance And Resilience

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Forrest, Steven; Trell, Elen-Maarja; Woltjer, Johan; Macoun, Milan; Maier, Karel

    2015-01-01

    A diverse range of citizen groups focusing on flood risk management have been identified in several European countries. The paper discusses the role of flood action (citizen) groups in the context of flood resilience and will do this by analysing the UK and its diverse range of flood groups. These

  4. Adjustable Robust Strategies for Flood Protection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postek, Krzysztof; den Hertog, Dick; Kind, J.; Pustjens, Chris

    2016-01-01

    Flood protection is of major importance to many flood-prone regions and involves substantial investment and maintenance costs. Modern flood risk management requires often to determine a cost-efficient protection strategy, i.e., one with lowest possible long run cost and satisfying flood protection

  5. Statistical optics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodman, J. W.

    This book is based on the thesis that some training in the area of statistical optics should be included as a standard part of any advanced optics curriculum. Random variables are discussed, taking into account definitions of probability and random variables, distribution functions and density functions, an extension to two or more random variables, statistical averages, transformations of random variables, sums of real random variables, Gaussian random variables, complex-valued random variables, and random phasor sums. Other subjects examined are related to random processes, some first-order properties of light waves, the coherence of optical waves, some problems involving high-order coherence, effects of partial coherence on imaging systems, imaging in the presence of randomly inhomogeneous media, and fundamental limits in photoelectric detection of light. Attention is given to deterministic versus statistical phenomena and models, the Fourier transform, and the fourth-order moment of the spectrum of a detected speckle image.

  6. Statistical mechanics

    CERN Document Server

    Schwabl, Franz

    2006-01-01

    The completely revised new edition of the classical book on Statistical Mechanics covers the basic concepts of equilibrium and non-equilibrium statistical physics. In addition to a deductive approach to equilibrium statistics and thermodynamics based on a single hypothesis - the form of the microcanonical density matrix - this book treats the most important elements of non-equilibrium phenomena. Intermediate calculations are presented in complete detail. Problems at the end of each chapter help students to consolidate their understanding of the material. Beyond the fundamentals, this text demonstrates the breadth of the field and its great variety of applications. Modern areas such as renormalization group theory, percolation, stochastic equations of motion and their applications to critical dynamics, kinetic theories, as well as fundamental considerations of irreversibility, are discussed. The text will be useful for advanced students of physics and other natural sciences; a basic knowledge of quantum mechan...

  7. Statistical mechanics

    CERN Document Server

    Jana, Madhusudan

    2015-01-01

    Statistical mechanics is self sufficient, written in a lucid manner, keeping in mind the exam system of the universities. Need of study this subject and its relation to Thermodynamics is discussed in detail. Starting from Liouville theorem gradually, the Statistical Mechanics is developed thoroughly. All three types of Statistical distribution functions are derived separately with their periphery of applications and limitations. Non-interacting ideal Bose gas and Fermi gas are discussed thoroughly. Properties of Liquid He-II and the corresponding models have been depicted. White dwarfs and condensed matter physics, transport phenomenon - thermal and electrical conductivity, Hall effect, Magneto resistance, viscosity, diffusion, etc. are discussed. Basic understanding of Ising model is given to explain the phase transition. The book ends with a detailed coverage to the method of ensembles (namely Microcanonical, canonical and grand canonical) and their applications. Various numerical and conceptual problems ar...

  8. Statistical physics

    CERN Document Server

    Guénault, Tony

    2007-01-01

    In this revised and enlarged second edition of an established text Tony Guénault provides a clear and refreshingly readable introduction to statistical physics, an essential component of any first degree in physics. The treatment itself is self-contained and concentrates on an understanding of the physical ideas, without requiring a high level of mathematical sophistication. A straightforward quantum approach to statistical averaging is adopted from the outset (easier, the author believes, than the classical approach). The initial part of the book is geared towards explaining the equilibrium properties of a simple isolated assembly of particles. Thus, several important topics, for example an ideal spin-½ solid, can be discussed at an early stage. The treatment of gases gives full coverage to Maxwell-Boltzmann, Fermi-Dirac and Bose-Einstein statistics. Towards the end of the book the student is introduced to a wider viewpoint and new chapters are included on chemical thermodynamics, interactions in, for exam...

  9. Planning of technical flood retention measures in large river basins under consideration of imprecise probabilities of multivariate hydrological loads

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Nijssen

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available As a result of the severe floods in Europe at the turn of the millennium, the ongoing shift from safety oriented flood control towards flood risk management was accelerated. With regard to technical flood control measures it became evident that the effectiveness of flood control measures depends on many different factors, which cannot be considered with single events used as design floods for planning. The multivariate characteristics of the hydrological loads have to be considered to evaluate complex flood control measures. The effectiveness of spatially distributed flood control systems differs for varying flood events. Event-based characteristics such as the spatial distribution of precipitation, the shape and volume of the resulting flood waves or the interactions of flood waves with the technical elements, e.g. reservoirs and flood polders, result in varying efficiency of these systems. Considering these aspects a flood control system should be evaluated with a broad range of hydrological loads to get a realistic assessment of its performance under different conditions. The consideration of this variety in flood control planning design was one particular aim of this study. Hydrological loads were described by multiple criteria. A statistical characterization of these criteria is difficult, since the data base is often not sufficient to analyze the variety of possible events. Hydrological simulations were used to solve this problem. Here a deterministic-stochastic flood generator was developed and applied to produce a large quantity of flood events which can be used as scenarios of possible hydrological loads. However, these simulations imply many uncertainties. The results will be biased by the basic assumptions of the modeling tools. In flood control planning probabilities are applied to characterize uncertainties. The probabilities of the simulated flood scenarios differ from probabilities which would be derived from long time series

  10. Statistical Physics

    CERN Document Server

    Mandl, Franz

    1988-01-01

    The Manchester Physics Series General Editors: D. J. Sandiford; F. Mandl; A. C. Phillips Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Manchester Properties of Matter B. H. Flowers and E. Mendoza Optics Second Edition F. G. Smith and J. H. Thomson Statistical Physics Second Edition E. Mandl Electromagnetism Second Edition I. S. Grant and W. R. Phillips Statistics R. J. Barlow Solid State Physics Second Edition J. R. Hook and H. E. Hall Quantum Mechanics F. Mandl Particle Physics Second Edition B. R. Martin and G. Shaw The Physics of Stars Second Edition A. C. Phillips Computing for Scient

  11. Statistical inference

    CERN Document Server

    Rohatgi, Vijay K

    2003-01-01

    Unified treatment of probability and statistics examines and analyzes the relationship between the two fields, exploring inferential issues. Numerous problems, examples, and diagrams--some with solutions--plus clear-cut, highlighted summaries of results. Advanced undergraduate to graduate level. Contents: 1. Introduction. 2. Probability Model. 3. Probability Distributions. 4. Introduction to Statistical Inference. 5. More on Mathematical Expectation. 6. Some Discrete Models. 7. Some Continuous Models. 8. Functions of Random Variables and Random Vectors. 9. Large-Sample Theory. 10. General Meth

  12. AP statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Levine-Wissing, Robin

    2012-01-01

    All Access for the AP® Statistics Exam Book + Web + Mobile Everything you need to prepare for the Advanced Placement® exam, in a study system built around you! There are many different ways to prepare for an Advanced Placement® exam. What's best for you depends on how much time you have to study and how comfortable you are with the subject matter. To score your highest, you need a system that can be customized to fit you: your schedule, your learning style, and your current level of knowledge. This book, and the online tools that come with it, will help you personalize your AP® Statistics prep

  13. Statistical mechanics

    CERN Document Server

    Davidson, Norman

    2003-01-01

    Clear and readable, this fine text assists students in achieving a grasp of the techniques and limitations of statistical mechanics. The treatment follows a logical progression from elementary to advanced theories, with careful attention to detail and mathematical development, and is sufficiently rigorous for introductory or intermediate graduate courses.Beginning with a study of the statistical mechanics of ideal gases and other systems of non-interacting particles, the text develops the theory in detail and applies it to the study of chemical equilibrium and the calculation of the thermody

  14. Smoky River coal flood risk mapping study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-06-01

    The Canada-Alberta Flood Damage Reduction Program (FDRP) is designed to reduce flood damage by identifying areas susceptible to flooding and by encouraging application of suitable land use planning, zoning, and flood preparedness and proofing. The purpose of this study is to define flood risk and floodway limits along the Smoky River near the former Smoky River Coal (SRC) plant. Alberta Energy has been responsible for the site since the mine and plant closed in 2000. The study describes flooding history, available data, features of the river and valley, calculation of flood levels, and floodway determination, and includes flood risk maps. The HEC-RAS program is used for the calculations. The flood risk area was calculated using the 1:100 year return period flood as the hydrological event. 7 refs., 11 figs., 7 tabs., 3 apps.

  15. Flood Resilient Systems and their Application for Flood Resilient Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manojlovic, N.; Gabalda, V.; Antanaskovic, D.; Gershovich, I.; Pasche, E.

    2012-04-01

    Following the paradigm shift in flood management from traditional to more integrated approaches, and considering the uncertainties of future development due to drivers such as climate change, one of the main emerging tasks of flood managers becomes the development of (flood) resilient cities. It can be achieved by application of non-structural - flood resilience measures, summarised in the 4As: assistance, alleviation, awareness and avoidance (FIAC, 2007). As a part of this strategy, the key aspect of development of resilient cities - resilient built environment can be reached by efficient application of Flood Resilience Technology (FReT) and its meaningful combination into flood resilient systems (FRS). FRS are given as [an interconnecting network of FReT which facilitates resilience (including both restorative and adaptive capacity) to flooding, addressing physical and social systems and considering different flood typologies] (SMARTeST, http://www.floodresilience.eu/). Applying the system approach (e.g. Zevenbergen, 2008), FRS can be developed at different scales from the building to the city level. Still, a matter of research is a method to define and systematise different FRS crossing those scales. Further, the decision on which resilient system is to be applied for the given conditions and given scale is a complex task, calling for utilisation of decision support tools. This process of decision-making should follow the steps of flood risk assessment (1) and development of a flood resilience plan (2) (Manojlovic et al, 2009). The key problem in (2) is how to match the input parameters that describe physical&social system and flood typology to the appropriate flood resilient system. Additionally, an open issue is how to integrate the advances in FReT and findings on its efficiency into decision support tools. This paper presents a way to define, systematise and make decisions on FRS at different scales of an urban system developed within the 7th FP Project

  16. Do regional methods really help reduce uncertainties in flood frequency analyses?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cong Nguyen, Chi; Payrastre, Olivier; Gaume, Eric

    2013-04-01

    Flood frequency analyses are often based on continuous measured series at gauge sites. However, the length of the available data sets is usually too short to provide reliable estimates of extreme design floods. To reduce the estimation uncertainties, the analyzed data sets have to be extended either in time, making use of historical and paleoflood data, or in space, merging data sets considered as statistically homogeneous to build large regional data samples. Nevertheless, the advantage of the regional analyses, the important increase of the size of the studied data sets, may be counterbalanced by the possible heterogeneities of the merged sets. The application and comparison of four different flood frequency analysis methods to two regions affected by flash floods in the south of France (Ardèche and Var) illustrates how this balance between the number of records and possible heterogeneities plays in real-world applications. The four tested methods are: (1) a local statistical analysis based on the existing series of measured discharges, (2) a local analysis valuating the existing information on historical floods, (3) a standard regional flood frequency analysis based on existing measured series at gauged sites and (4) a modified regional analysis including estimated extreme peak discharges at ungauged sites. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to simulate a large number of discharge series with characteristics similar to the observed ones (type of statistical distributions, number of sites and records) to evaluate to which extent the results obtained on these case studies can be generalized. These two case studies indicate that even small statistical heterogeneities, which are not detected by the standard homogeneity tests implemented in regional flood frequency studies, may drastically limit the usefulness of such approaches. On the other hand, these result show that the valuation of information on extreme events, either historical flood events at gauged

  17. Flood Hazard Areas - High Risk

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — The S_Fld_Haz_Ar table contains information about the flood hazards within the study area. A spatial file with locational information also corresponds with this data...

  18. FEMA Flood Insurance Studies Inventory

    Data.gov (United States)

    Kansas Data Access and Support Center — This digital data set provides an inventory of Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Flood Insurance Studies (FIS) that have been conducted for communities and...

  19. Flooding characteristics of Goodloe packing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Begovich, J.M.; Watson, J.S.

    1976-08-01

    Experimental flooding data for the countercurrent flow of air and water in a 7.62-cm-diam glass column filled with Goodloe packing were compared with a correlation reported by the packing manufacturer. Flooding rates observed in this study were as low as one-half those predicted by the correlation. Rearranging the packing by inverting the column and removing some packing segments yielded results similar to the correlation for liquid-to-gas (L/G) mass flow rate ratios greater than 10, but the experimental flooding curve fell significantly below the correlation at lower L/G ratios. When the column was repacked with new packing, the results were essentially the same as those obtained in the inverted column. Thus, it is believed that a carefully packed column is more likely to yield flooding rates similar to those obtained in the new or inverted columns rather than rates predicted by the original correlation

  20. Flood Fighting Products Research Facility

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — A wave research basin at the ERDC Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory has been modified specifically for testing of temporary, barrier-type, flood fighting products....

  1. FLOOD CHARACTERISTICS AND MANAGEMENT ADAPTATIONS ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dr Osondu

    2011-10-26

    Oct 26, 2011 ... Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management Vol. ... people are estimated to be at such risk by 2080 .... SCS-CN method is based on the water balance .... and psychological burden of flood hazard often fall.

  2. Household economic and food security after the 2010 Pakistan floods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doocy, Shannon; Leidman, Eva; Aung, Tricia; Kirsch, Thomas

    2013-03-01

    The 2010 floods inundated one-fifth of Pakistan and affected more than 20 million people. To characterize the impact of the floods and subsequent humanitarian response on household economy and food security. A cross-sectional 80 x 20 cluster survey (n = 1,569 households) was conducted using probability proportional to size sampling in the four most flood-affected provinces 6 months after the floods. Analysis included both descriptive statistics and regression models, with receipt of food aid (in the first month), dietary quality, and household income at 6 months postflood as outcomes. Need for food aid was nearly ubiquitous (98.9%); however, only half of the study population ever received food aid. Displacement was not a significant predictor of food aid receipt (OR, 1.28; 95% CI, 0.83 to 1.98); however urban location (OR, 2.78; 95% CI, 2.00 to 3.86) and damage to the home (OR, 2.73; 95% CI, 1.34 to 5.60) were significantly associated. Some of the hardest-hit groups, including both farmers and day laborers, were significantly less likely to receive food aid (p floods was relatively low, and many of the most affected populations were less likely to receive aid, suggesting that targeting should be improved in future responses.

  3. Record Balkan floods of 2014 linked to planetary wave resonance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stadtherr, Lisa; Coumou, Dim; Petoukhov, Vladimir; Petri, Stefan; Rahmstorf, Stefan

    2016-04-01

    In May 2014, the Balkans were hit by a Vb-type cyclone that brought disastrous flooding and severe damage to Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, and Croatia. Vb cyclones migrate from the Mediterranean, where they absorb warm and moist air, to the north, often causing flooding in central/eastern Europe. Extreme rainfall events are increasing on a global scale, and both thermodynamic and dynamical mechanisms play a role. Where thermodynamic aspects are generally well understood, there is large uncertainty associated with current and future changes in dynamics. We study the climatic and meteorological factors that influenced the catastrophic flooding in the Balkans, where we focus on large-scale circulation. We show that the Vb cyclone was unusually stationary, bringing extreme rainfall for several consecutive days, and that this situation was likely linked to a quasi-stationary circumglobal Rossby wave train. We provide evidence that this quasi-stationary wave was amplified by wave resonance. Statistical analysis of daily spring rainfall over the Balkan region reveals significant upward trends over 1950-2014, especially in the high quantiles relevant for flooding events. These changes cannot be explained by simple thermodynamic arguments, and we thus argue that dynamical processes likely played a role in increasing flood risks over the Balkans.

  4. A Bayesian decision approach to rainfall thresholds based flood warning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. L. V. Martina

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Operational real time flood forecasting systems generally require a hydrological model to run in real time as well as a series of hydro-informatics tools to transform the flood forecast into relatively simple and clear messages to the decision makers involved in flood defense. The scope of this paper is to set forth the possibility of providing flood warnings at given river sections based on the direct comparison of the quantitative precipitation forecast with critical rainfall threshold values, without the need of an on-line real time forecasting system. This approach leads to an extremely simplified alert system to be used by non technical stakeholders and could also be used to supplement the traditional flood forecasting systems in case of system failures. The critical rainfall threshold values, incorporating the soil moisture initial conditions, result from statistical analyses using long hydrological time series combined with a Bayesian utility function minimization. In the paper, results of an application of the proposed methodology to the Sieve river, a tributary of the Arno river in Italy, are given to exemplify its practical applicability.

  5. Time-dependent reliability analysis of flood defences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buijs, F.A.; Hall, J.W.; Sayers, P.B.; Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. van

    2009-01-01

    This paper describes the underlying theory and a practical process for establishing time-dependent reliability models for components in a realistic and complex flood defence system. Though time-dependent reliability models have been applied frequently in, for example, the offshore, structural safety and nuclear industry, application in the safety-critical field of flood defence has to date been limited. The modelling methodology involves identifying relevant variables and processes, characterisation of those processes in appropriate mathematical terms, numerical implementation, parameter estimation and prediction. A combination of stochastic, hierarchical and parametric processes is employed. The approach is demonstrated for selected deterioration mechanisms in the context of a flood defence system. The paper demonstrates that this structured methodology enables the definition of credible statistical models for time-dependence of flood defences in data scarce situations. In the application of those models one of the main findings is that the time variability in the deterioration process tends to be governed the time-dependence of one or a small number of critical attributes. It is demonstrated how the need for further data collection depends upon the relevance of the time-dependence in the performance of the flood defence system.

  6. Introduction to flood control science

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Dong U; Ha, Jin Uk; Kim, Dong Ha; Shin, Hong Ryeol; Song, Seok Hwan; Kim, Jin Gyu; Moon, Heon Cheol

    2003-01-01

    This book covers introduction, industrialization disaster such as Bhopal and Chernobyl disaster, earthquake disaster, volcano disaster, avalanche disaster including loss allocation and prevention measures, and natural fire by showing California, Yellowstone park and similarity between fire and flood. It also introduces climate change and disaster, Earth's greenhouse effect and disaster due to current sea level rise, flood damage, drought disaster, famine and drought, prediction of drought, population problems, outlook of world population, and disaster prevention administration system of Korea.

  7. Elk River Watershed - Flood Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, C. C.; Byrne, J. M.; MacDonald, R. J.; Lewis, D.

    2014-12-01

    Flooding has the potential to cause significant impacts to economic activities as well as to disrupt or displace populations. Changing climate regimes such as extreme precipitation events increase flood vulnerability and put additional stresses on infrastructure. Potential flooding from just under 100 (2009 NPRI Reviewed Facility Data Release, Environment Canada) toxic tailings ponds located in Canada increase risk to human safety and the environment. One such geotechnical failure spilt billions of litres of toxic tailings into the Fraser River watershed, British Columbia, when a tailings pond dam breach occurred in August 2014. Damaged and washed out roadways cut access to essential services as seen by the extensive floods that occurred in Saskatchewan and Manitoba in July 2014, and in Southern Alberta in 2013. Recovery efforts from events such as these can be lengthy, and have substantial social and economic impacts both in loss of revenue and cost of repair. The objective of this study is to investigate existing conditions in the Elk River watershed and model potential future hydrological changes that can increase flood risk hazards. By analyzing existing hydrology, meteorology, land cover, land use, economic, and settlement patterns a baseline is established for existing conditions in the Elk River watershed. Coupling the Generate Earth Systems Science (GENESYS) high-resolution spatial hydrometeorological model with flood hazard analysis methodology, high-resolution flood vulnerability base line maps are created using historical climate conditions. Further work in 2015 will examine possible impacts for a range of climate change and land use change scenarios to define changes to future flood risk and vulnerability.

  8. Statistical Computing

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    inference and finite population sampling. Sudhakar Kunte. Elements of statistical computing are discussed in this series. ... which captain gets an option to decide whether to field first or bat first ... may of course not be fair, in the sense that the team which wins ... describe two methods of drawing a random number between 0.

  9. Statistical thermodynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Schrödinger, Erwin

    1952-01-01

    Nobel Laureate's brilliant attempt to develop a simple, unified standard method of dealing with all cases of statistical thermodynamics - classical, quantum, Bose-Einstein, Fermi-Dirac, and more.The work also includes discussions of Nernst theorem, Planck's oscillator, fluctuations, the n-particle problem, problem of radiation, much more.

  10. Cyber Surveillance for Flood Disasters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shi-Wei Lo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Regional heavy rainfall is usually caused by the influence of extreme weather conditions. Instant heavy rainfall often results in the flooding of rivers and the neighboring low-lying areas, which is responsible for a large number of casualties and considerable property loss. The existing precipitation forecast systems mostly focus on the analysis and forecast of large-scale areas but do not provide precise instant automatic monitoring and alert feedback for individual river areas and sections. Therefore, in this paper, we propose an easy method to automatically monitor the flood object of a specific area, based on the currently widely used remote cyber surveillance systems and image processing methods, in order to obtain instant flooding and waterlogging event feedback. The intrusion detection mode of these surveillance systems is used in this study, wherein a flood is considered a possible invasion object. Through the detection and verification of flood objects, automatic flood risk-level monitoring of specific individual river segments, as well as the automatic urban inundation detection, has become possible. The proposed method can better meet the practical needs of disaster prevention than the method of large-area forecasting. It also has several other advantages, such as flexibility in location selection, no requirement of a standard water-level ruler, and a relatively large field of view, when compared with the traditional water-level measurements using video screens. The results can offer prompt reference for appropriate disaster warning actions in small areas, making them more accurate and effective.

  11. Scales of Natural Flood Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholson, Alex; Quinn, Paul; Owen, Gareth; Hetherington, David; Piedra Lara, Miguel; O'Donnell, Greg

    2016-04-01

    The scientific field of Natural flood Management (NFM) is receiving much attention and is now widely seen as a valid solution to sustainably manage flood risk whilst offering significant multiple benefits. However, few examples exist looking at NFM on a large scale (>10km2). Well-implemented NFM has the effect of restoring more natural catchment hydrological and sedimentological processes, which in turn can have significant flood risk and WFD benefits for catchment waterbodies. These catchment scale improvements in-turn allow more 'natural' processes to be returned to rivers and streams, creating a more resilient system. Although certain NFM interventions may appear distant and disconnected from main stem waterbodies, they will undoubtedly be contributing to WFD at the catchment waterbody scale. This paper offers examples of NFM, and explains how they can be maximised through practical design across many scales (from feature up to the whole catchment). New tools to assist in the selection of measures and their location, and to appreciate firstly, the flooding benefit at the local catchment scale and then show a Flood Impact Model that can best reflect the impacts of local changes further downstream. The tools will be discussed in the context of our most recent experiences on NFM projects including river catchments in the north east of England and in Scotland. This work has encouraged a more integrated approach to flood management planning that can use both traditional and novel NFM strategies in an effective and convincing way.

  12. Flooding Effect on Earth Walls

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meysam Banimahd

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Earth building is a sustainable, environmentally friendly and economical method of construction that has been used worldwide for many centuries. For the past three decades, earth has seen a revival as a building material for a modern construction method due to its benefits in terms of low carbon content, low cost and energy involved during construction, as well as the fact that it is a sustainable technology of building. Climate change is influencing precipitation levels and patterns around the world, and as a consequence, flood risk is increasing rapidly. When flooding occurs, earth buildings are exposed to water by submersion, causing an increase in the degree of saturation of the earth structures and therefore a decrease of the suction between particles. This study investigated the effect of cycles of flooding (consecutive events of flooding followed by dry periods on earth walls. A series of characterization tests were carried out to obtain the physical and mechanical properties of the studied earth material. In a second stage, Flooding Simulation Tests (FST were performed to explore the earth walls’ response to repeated flooding events. The results obtained for the tested earth wall/samples with reinforced material (straw reveal hydraulic hysteresis when wall/samples are subject to cycles of wetting and drying.

  13. Pan-European stochastic flood event set

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kadlec, Martin; Pinto, Joaquim G.; He, Yi; Punčochář, Petr; Kelemen, Fanni D.; Manful, Desmond; Palán, Ladislav

    2017-04-01

    predictands. Finally, the transfer functions are applied to a large ensemble of GCM simulations with forcing corresponding to present day climate conditions to generate highly resolved stochastic time series of precipitation and temperature for several thousand years. These time series form the input for the rainfall-runoff model developed by the UEA team. It is a spatially distributed model adapted from the HBV model and will be calibrated for individual basins using historical discharge data. The calibrated model will be driven by the precipitation time series generated by the KIT team to simulate discharges at a daily time step. The uncertainties in the simulated discharges will be analysed using multiple model parameter sets. A number of statistical methods will be used to assess return periods, changes in the magnitudes, changes in the characteristics of floods such as time base and time to peak, and spatial correlations of large flood events. The Pan-European flood stochastic event set will permit a better view of flood risk for market applications.

  14. Constructing risks – Internalisation of flood risks in the flood risk management plan

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roos, Matthijs; Hartmann, T.; Spit, T.J.M.; Johann, Georg

    Traditional flood protection methods have focused efforts on different measures to keep water out of floodplains. However, the European Flood Directive challenges this paradigm (Hartmann and Driessen, 2013). Accordingly, flood risk management plans should incorporate measures brought about by

  15. State-of-the-art for evaluating the potential impact of flooding on a radioactive waste repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1980-01-01

    This report is a review of the state-of-the-art for evaluating the potential impact of flooding on a deep radioactive-waste repository, namely, for predicting the future occurrence of catastrophic flooding and for estimating the effect of such flooding on waste containment characteristics. Several detrimental effects are identified: flooding can increase groundwater seepage velocities through a repository within the framework of the existing hydrologic system and thus increase the rate of radioactive-waste leakage to the biosphere; flooding may alter repository hydrology by reversing flow gradients, relocating sources of groundwater recharge and discharge, or shortening seepage paths, thereby producing unpredictable leakage; saturation of a vadose-zone repository during flooding can increase groundwater seepage velocities by several orders of magnitude; and flooding can damage repository-media containment properties by inducing seismic or chemical instability or increasing fracture permeability in relatively shallow repository rock as a result of redistributing in-situ stresses. Short-term flooding frequency and magnitude can be predicted statistically by analyzing historical records of flooding. However, long-term flooding events that could damage a permanent repository cannot be predicted with confidence because the geologic record is neither unique nor sufficienly complete for statistical analysis. It is more important to identify parameters characterizing containment properties (such as permeability, groundwater gradient, and shortest seepage path length to the biosphere) that could be affected by future flooding, estimate the maximum magnitude of flooding that could occur within the life of the repository by examining the geologic record, and determine the impact such flooding could have on the parameter values

  16. Flood Risk Index Assessment in Johor River Basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmad Shakir Mohd Saudi; Hafizan Juahir; Azman Azid; Fazureen Azaman; Ahmad Shakir Mohd Saudi

    2015-01-01

    This study is focusing on constructing the flood risk index in the Johor river basin. The application of statistical methods such as factor analysis (FA), statistical process control (SPC) and artificial neural network (ANN) had revealed the most efficient flood risk index. The result in FA was water level has correlation coefficient of 0.738 and the most practicable variable to be used for the warning alert system. The upper control limits (UCL) for the water level in the river basin Johor is 4.423 m and the risk index for the water level has been set by this method consisting of 0-100.The accuracy of prediction has been evaluated by using ANN and the accuracy of the test result was R"2 = 0.96408 with RMSE= 2.5736. The future prediction for UCL in Johor river basin has been predicted and the value was 3.75 m. This model can shows the current and future prediction for flood risk index in the Johor river basin and can help local authorities for flood control and prevention of the state of Johor. (author)

  17. Energy Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1994-01-01

    For the years 1992 and 1993, part of the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are preliminary or estimated. The annual statistics of the Energy Review appear in more detail from the publication Energiatilastot - Energy Statistics issued annually, which also includes historical time series over a longer period. The tables and figures shown in this publication are: Changes in the volume of GNP and energy consumption; Coal consumption; Natural gas consumption; Peat consumption; Domestic oil deliveries; Import prices of oil; Price development of principal oil products; Fuel prices for power production; Total energy consumption by source; Electricity supply; Energy imports by country of origin in 1993; Energy exports by recipient country in 1993; Consumer prices of liquid fuels; Consumer prices of hard coal and natural gas, prices of indigenous fuels; Average electricity price by type of consumer; Price of district heating by type of consumer and Excise taxes and turnover taxes included in consumer prices of some energy sources

  18. Do flood risk perceptions provide useful insights for flood risk management? Findings from central Vietnam

    OpenAIRE

    Bubeck, P.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Suu, L.T.T.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

    2012-01-01

    Following the renewed attention for non-structural flood risk reduction measures implemented at the household level, there has been an increased interest in individual flood risk perceptions. The reason for this is the commonly-made assumption that flood risk perceptions drive the motivation of individuals to undertake flood risk mitigation measures, as well as the public's demand for flood protection, and therefore provide useful insights for flood risk management. This study empirically exa...

  19. Statistical Optics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodman, Joseph W.

    2000-07-01

    The Wiley Classics Library consists of selected books that have become recognized classics in their respective fields. With these new unabridged and inexpensive editions, Wiley hopes to extend the life of these important works by making them available to future generations of mathematicians and scientists. Currently available in the Series: T. W. Anderson The Statistical Analysis of Time Series T. S. Arthanari & Yadolah Dodge Mathematical Programming in Statistics Emil Artin Geometric Algebra Norman T. J. Bailey The Elements of Stochastic Processes with Applications to the Natural Sciences Robert G. Bartle The Elements of Integration and Lebesgue Measure George E. P. Box & Norman R. Draper Evolutionary Operation: A Statistical Method for Process Improvement George E. P. Box & George C. Tiao Bayesian Inference in Statistical Analysis R. W. Carter Finite Groups of Lie Type: Conjugacy Classes and Complex Characters R. W. Carter Simple Groups of Lie Type William G. Cochran & Gertrude M. Cox Experimental Designs, Second Edition Richard Courant Differential and Integral Calculus, Volume I RIchard Courant Differential and Integral Calculus, Volume II Richard Courant & D. Hilbert Methods of Mathematical Physics, Volume I Richard Courant & D. Hilbert Methods of Mathematical Physics, Volume II D. R. Cox Planning of Experiments Harold S. M. Coxeter Introduction to Geometry, Second Edition Charles W. Curtis & Irving Reiner Representation Theory of Finite Groups and Associative Algebras Charles W. Curtis & Irving Reiner Methods of Representation Theory with Applications to Finite Groups and Orders, Volume I Charles W. Curtis & Irving Reiner Methods of Representation Theory with Applications to Finite Groups and Orders, Volume II Cuthbert Daniel Fitting Equations to Data: Computer Analysis of Multifactor Data, Second Edition Bruno de Finetti Theory of Probability, Volume I Bruno de Finetti Theory of Probability, Volume 2 W. Edwards Deming Sample Design in Business Research

  20. Statistical utilitarianism

    OpenAIRE

    Pivato, Marcus

    2013-01-01

    We show that, in a sufficiently large population satisfying certain statistical regularities, it is often possible to accurately estimate the utilitarian social welfare function, even if we only have very noisy data about individual utility functions and interpersonal utility comparisons. In particular, we show that it is often possible to identify an optimal or close-to-optimal utilitarian social choice using voting rules such as the Borda rule, approval voting, relative utilitarianism, or a...

  1. Experimental statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Natrella, Mary Gibbons

    1963-01-01

    Formulated to assist scientists and engineers engaged in army ordnance research and development programs, this well-known and highly regarded handbook is a ready reference for advanced undergraduate and graduate students as well as for professionals seeking engineering information and quantitative data for designing, developing, constructing, and testing equipment. Topics include characterizing and comparing the measured performance of a material, product, or process; general considerations in planning experiments; statistical techniques for analyzing extreme-value data; use of transformations

  2. Modeled changes in 100 year Flood Risk and Asset Damages within Mapped Floodplains of the Contiguous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wobus, C. W.; Gutmann, E. D.; Jones, R.; Rissing, M.; Mizukami, N.; Lorie, M.; Mahoney, H.; Wood, A.; Mills, D.; Martinich, J.

    2017-12-01

    A growing body of recent work suggests that the extreme weather events that drive inland flooding are likely to increase in frequency and magnitude in a warming climate, thus increasing monetary damages from flooding in the future. We use hydrologic projections based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to estimate changes in the frequency of modeled 1% annual exceedance probability flood events at 57,116 locations across the contiguous United States (CONUS). We link these flood projections to a database of assets within mapped flood hazard zones to model changes in inland flooding damages throughout the CONUS over the remainder of the 21st century, under two greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios. Our model generates early 21st century flood damages that reasonably approximate the range of historical observations, and trajectories of future damages that vary substantially depending on the GHG emissions pathway. The difference in modeled flood damages between higher and lower emissions pathways approaches $4 billion per year by 2100 (in undiscounted 2014 dollars), suggesting that aggressive GHG emissions reductions could generate significant monetary benefits over the long-term in terms of reduced flood risk. Although the downscaled hydrologic data we used have been applied to flood impacts studies elsewhere, this research expands on earlier work to quantify changes in flood risk by linking future flood exposure to assets and damages at a national scale. Our approach relies on a series of simplifications that could ultimately affect damage estimates (e.g., use of statistical downscaling, reliance on a nationwide hydrologic model, and linking damage estimates only to 1% AEP floods). Although future work is needed to test the sensitivity of our results to these methodological choices, our results suggest that monetary damages from inland flooding could be substantially reduced through more aggressive GHG mitigation policies.

  3. Climate change impacts on flood risk and asset damages within mapped 100-year floodplains of the contiguous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wobus, Cameron; Gutmann, Ethan; Jones, Russell; Rissing, Matthew; Mizukami, Naoki; Lorie, Mark; Mahoney, Hardee; Wood, Andrew W.; Mills, David; Martinich, Jeremy

    2017-12-01

    A growing body of work suggests that the extreme weather events that drive inland flooding are likely to increase in frequency and magnitude in a warming climate, thus potentially increasing flood damages in the future. We use hydrologic projections based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to estimate changes in the frequency of modeled 1 % annual exceedance probability (1 % AEP, or 100-year) flood events at 57 116 stream reaches across the contiguous United States (CONUS). We link these flood projections to a database of assets within mapped flood hazard zones to model changes in inland flooding damages throughout the CONUS over the remainder of the 21st century. Our model generates early 21st century flood damages that reasonably approximate the range of historical observations and trajectories of future damages that vary substantially depending on the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions pathway. The difference in modeled flood damages between higher and lower emissions pathways approaches USD 4 billion per year by 2100 (in undiscounted 2014 dollars), suggesting that aggressive GHG emissions reductions could generate significant monetary benefits over the long term in terms of reduced flood damages. Although the downscaled hydrologic data we used have been applied to flood impacts studies elsewhere, this research expands on earlier work to quantify changes in flood risk by linking future flood exposure to assets and damages on a national scale. Our approach relies on a series of simplifications that could ultimately affect damage estimates (e.g., use of statistical downscaling, reliance on a nationwide hydrologic model, and linking damage estimates only to 1 % AEP floods). Although future work is needed to test the sensitivity of our results to these methodological choices, our results indicate that monetary damages from inland flooding could be significantly reduced through substantial GHG mitigation.

  4. Climate change impacts on flood risk and asset damages within mapped 100-year floodplains of the contiguous United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Wobus

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available A growing body of work suggests that the extreme weather events that drive inland flooding are likely to increase in frequency and magnitude in a warming climate, thus potentially increasing flood damages in the future. We use hydrologic projections based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 to estimate changes in the frequency of modeled 1 % annual exceedance probability (1 % AEP, or 100-year flood events at 57 116 stream reaches across the contiguous United States (CONUS. We link these flood projections to a database of assets within mapped flood hazard zones to model changes in inland flooding damages throughout the CONUS over the remainder of the 21st century. Our model generates early 21st century flood damages that reasonably approximate the range of historical observations and trajectories of future damages that vary substantially depending on the greenhouse gas (GHG emissions pathway. The difference in modeled flood damages between higher and lower emissions pathways approaches USD 4 billion per year by 2100 (in undiscounted 2014 dollars, suggesting that aggressive GHG emissions reductions could generate significant monetary benefits over the long term in terms of reduced flood damages. Although the downscaled hydrologic data we used have been applied to flood impacts studies elsewhere, this research expands on earlier work to quantify changes in flood risk by linking future flood exposure to assets and damages on a national scale. Our approach relies on a series of simplifications that could ultimately affect damage estimates (e.g., use of statistical downscaling, reliance on a nationwide hydrologic model, and linking damage estimates only to 1 % AEP floods. Although future work is needed to test the sensitivity of our results to these methodological choices, our results indicate that monetary damages from inland flooding could be significantly reduced through substantial GHG mitigation.

  5. Drivers of flood damage on event level

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kreibich, H.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Apel, H.

    2016-01-01

    Flood risk is dynamic and influenced by many processes related to hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Flood damage increased significantly over the past decades, however, resulting overall economic loss per event is an aggregated indicator and it is difficult to attribute causes to this increasing...... trend. Much has been learned about damaging processes during floods at the micro-scale, e.g. building level. However, little is known about the main factors determining the amount of flood damage on event level. Thus, we analyse and compare paired flood events, i.e. consecutive, similar damaging floods...... example are the 2002 and 2013 floods in the Elbe and Danube catchments in Germany. The 2002 flood caused the highest economic damage (EUR 11600 million) due to a natural hazard event in Germany. Damage was so high due to extreme flood hazard triggered by extreme precipitation and a high number...

  6. Accumulation risk assessment for the flooding hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roth, Giorgio; Ghizzoni, Tatiana; Rudari, Roberto

    2010-05-01

    One of the main consequences of the demographic and economic development and of markets and trades globalization is represented by risks cumulus. In most cases, the cumulus of risks intuitively arises from the geographic concentration of a number of vulnerable elements in a single place. For natural events, risks cumulus can be associated, in addition to intensity, also to event's extension. In this case, the magnitude can be such that large areas, that may include many regions or even large portions of different countries, are stroked by single, catastrophic, events. Among natural risks, the impact of the flooding hazard cannot be understated. To cope with, a variety of mitigation actions can be put in place: from the improvement of monitoring and alert systems to the development of hydraulic structures, throughout land use restrictions, civil protection, financial and insurance plans. All of those viable options present social and economic impacts, either positive or negative, whose proper estimate should rely on the assumption of appropriate - present and future - flood risk scenarios. It is therefore necessary to identify proper statistical methodologies, able to describe the multivariate aspects of the involved physical processes and their spatial dependence. In hydrology and meteorology, but also in finance and insurance practice, it has early been recognized that classical statistical theory distributions (e.g., the normal and gamma families) are of restricted use for modeling multivariate spatial data. Recent research efforts have been therefore directed towards developing statistical models capable of describing the forms of asymmetry manifest in data sets. This, in particular, for the quite frequent case of phenomena whose empirical outcome behaves in a non-normal fashion, but still maintains some broad similarity with the multivariate normal distribution. Fruitful approaches were recognized in the use of flexible models, which include the normal

  7. Assessing flood risk at the global scale: model setup, results, and sensitivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, Philip J; Jongman, Brenden; Weiland, Frederiek Sperna; Winsemius, Hessel C; Bouwman, Arno; Ligtvoet, Willem; Van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc F P

    2013-01-01

    Globally, economic losses from flooding exceeded $19 billion in 2012, and are rising rapidly. Hence, there is an increasing need for global-scale flood risk assessments, also within the context of integrated global assessments. We have developed and validated a model cascade for producing global flood risk maps, based on numerous flood return-periods. Validation results indicate that the model simulates interannual fluctuations in flood impacts well. The cascade involves: hydrological and hydraulic modelling; extreme value statistics; inundation modelling; flood impact modelling; and estimating annual expected impacts. The initial results estimate global impacts for several indicators, for example annual expected exposed population (169 million); and annual expected exposed GDP ($1383 billion). These results are relatively insensitive to the extreme value distribution employed to estimate low frequency flood volumes. However, they are extremely sensitive to the assumed flood protection standard; developing a database of such standards should be a research priority. Also, results are sensitive to the use of two different climate forcing datasets. The impact model can easily accommodate new, user-defined, impact indicators. We envisage several applications, for example: identifying risk hotspots; calculating macro-scale risk for the insurance industry and large companies; and assessing potential benefits (and costs) of adaptation measures. (letter)

  8. Effects of an extreme flood on river morphology (case study: Karoon River, Iran)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousefi, Saleh; Mirzaee, Somayeh; Keesstra, Saskia; Surian, Nicola; Pourghasemi, Hamid Reza; Zakizadeh, Hamid Reza; Tabibian, Sahar

    2018-03-01

    An extreme flood occurred on 14 April 2016 in the Karoon River, Iran. The occurred flood discharge was the highest discharge recorded over the last 60 years in the Karoon River. Using the OLI Landsat images taken on 8 April 2016 (before the flood) and 24 April 2016 (after the flood) the geomorphic effects were detected in different land cover types within the 155-km-long study reach. The results show that the flood significantly affected the channel width and the main effect was high mobilization of channel sediments and severe bank erosion in the meandering reaches. According to field surveys, the flood occupied the channel corridor and even the floodplain parts. However, the channel pattern was not significantly altered, although the results show that the average channel width increased from 192 to 256 m. Statistical results indicate a significant change for active channel width and sinuosity index at 99% confidence level for both indexes. The flood-induced morphological changes varied significantly for different land cover types along the Karoon River. Specifically, the channel has widened less in residential areas than in other land cover types because of the occurrence of bank protection structures. However, the value of bank retreat in residential and protected sides of the Karoon River is more than what we expected during the study of extreme flood.

  9. A Cloud-Based Global Flood Disaster Community Cyber-Infrastructure: Development and Demonstration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Zhanming; Hong, Yang; Khan, Sadiq; Gourley, Jonathan; Flamig, Zachary; Kirschbaum, Dalia; Tang, Guoqiang

    2014-01-01

    Flood disasters have significant impacts on the development of communities globally. This study describes a public cloud-based flood cyber-infrastructure (CyberFlood) that collects, organizes, visualizes, and manages several global flood databases for authorities and the public in real-time, providing location-based eventful visualization as well as statistical analysis and graphing capabilities. In order to expand and update the existing flood inventory, a crowdsourcing data collection methodology is employed for the public with smartphones or Internet to report new flood events, which is also intended to engage citizen-scientists so that they may become motivated and educated about the latest developments in satellite remote sensing and hydrologic modeling technologies. Our shared vision is to better serve the global water community with comprehensive flood information, aided by the state-of-the- art cloud computing and crowdsourcing technology. The CyberFlood presents an opportunity to eventually modernize the existing paradigm used to collect, manage, analyze, and visualize water-related disasters.

  10. Field-flood requirements for emission computed tomography with an Anger camer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogers, W.L.; Clinthorne, N.H.; Harkness, B.A.; Koral, K.F.; Keyes, J.W. Jr.

    1982-01-01

    Emission computed tomography with a rotating camera places stringent requirements on camera uniformity and the stability of camera response. In terms of clinical tomographic imaging, we have studied the statistical accuracy required for camera flood correction, the requirements for flood accuracy, the utility and validity of flood and data image smoothing to reduce random noise effects, and the magnitude and effect of camera variations as a function of angular position, energy window, and tuning. Uniformity of the corrected flood response must be held to better than 1% to eliminate image artifacts that are apparent in a million-count image of a liver slice. This requires calibration with an accurate, well-mixed flood source. Both random fluctuations and variations in camera response with rotation must be kept below 1%. To meet the statistical limit, one requires at least 30 million counts for the flod-correction image. Smoothing the flood image alone introduces unacceptable image artifacts. Smoothing both the flood image and data, however, appears to be a good approach toward reducing noise effects. Careful camera tuning and magnetic shield design provide camera stability suitable for present clinical applications

  11. Energy statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1989-01-01

    World data from the United Nation's latest Energy Statistics Yearbook, first published in our last issue, are completed here. The 1984-86 data were revised and 1987 data added for world commercial energy production and consumption, world natural gas plant liquids production, world LP-gas production, imports, exports, and consumption, world residual fuel oil production, imports, exports, and consumption, world lignite production, imports, exports, and consumption, world peat production and consumption, world electricity production, imports, exports, and consumption (Table 80), and world nuclear electric power production

  12. Flood frequency analysis and generation of flood hazard indicator maps in a semi-arid environment, case of Ourika watershed (western High Atlas, Morocco)

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Alaoui El Fels, Abdelhafid; Alaa, Noureddine; Bachnou, Ali; Rachidi, Said

    2018-05-01

    The development of the statistical models and flood risk modeling approaches have seen remarkable improvements in their productivities. Their application in arid and semi-arid regions, particularly in developing countries, can be extremely useful for better assessment and planning of flood risk in order to reduce the catastrophic impacts of this phenomenon. This study focuses on the Setti Fadma region (Ourika basin, Morocco) which is potentially threatened by floods and is subject to climatic and anthropogenic forcing. The study is based on two main axes: (i) the extreme flow frequency analysis, using 12 probability laws adjusted by Maximum Likelihood method and (ii) the generation of the flood risk indicator maps are based on the solution proposed by the Nays2DFlood solver of the Hydrodynamic model of two-dimensional Saint-Venant equations. The study is used as a spatial high-resolution digital model (Lidar) in order to get the nearest hydrological simulation of the reality. The results showed that the GEV is the most appropriate law of the extreme flows estimation for different return periods. Taking into consideration the mapping of 100-year flood area, the study revealed that the fluvial overflows extent towards the banks of Ourika and consequently, affects some living areas, cultivated fields and the roads that connects the valley to the city of Marrakech. The aim of this study is to propose new technics of the flood risk management allowing a better planning of the flooded areas.

  13. Flooding Mechanism in Vertical Flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ronny-Dwi Agussulistyo; Indarto

    2000-01-01

    This research was carried out to investigate the mechanism of flooding ina vertical liquid-gas counter current flow, along two meter length of thetube. The tube use both circular and square tube, a cross section of squaretube was made the same as a cross section of circular tube with one inchdiameter tube. The liquid enters the tube, passes through a porous wall inletand a groove inlet in a distributor and it flows downwards through a liquidoutlet in a collector. The gas is being introduced at the bottom of the tube,it flows upwards through nozzle in the collector. The results of researchshowed that the flooding occurs earlier in the circular tube than in thesquare tube, either uses a porous wall inlet or a groove inlet. In the squaretube , onset of the flooding occurs at the top of the tube, in front ofliquid injection, it is related to the formation of a film wave, just belowthe liquid feed. Whereas in the circular tube, onset of the flooding occursfrom the bottom of the tube, at the liquid outlet, it is related to theexpand of the film wave. However, in the circular tube with the groove inlet,for the higher liquid flow rate, onset of the flooding from the top, like inthe square tube. (author)

  14. Chapter 8: Droughts, Floods, and Wildfires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wehner, M. F.; Arnold, J. R.; Knutson, T.; Kunkel, K. E.; LeGrande, A. N.

    2017-01-01

    Recent droughts and associated heat waves have reached record intensity in some regions of the United States; however, by geographical scale and duration, the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s remains the benchmark drought and extreme heat event in the historical record (very high confidence). While by some measures drought has decreased over much of the continental United States in association with long-term increases in precipitation, neither the precipitation increases nor inferred drought decreases have been confidently attributed to anthropogenic forcing. The human effect on recent major U.S. droughts is complicated. Little evidence is found for a human influence on observed precipitation deficits, but much evidence is found for a human influence on surface soil moisture deficits due to increased evapotranspiration caused by higher temperatures. Future decreases in surface (top 10 cm) soil moisture from anthropogenic forcing over most of the United States are likely as the climate warms under higher scenarios. Substantial reductions in western U.S. winter and spring snowpack are projected as the climate warms. Earlier spring melt and reduced snow water equivalent have been formally attributed to human-induced warming (high confidence) and will very likely be exacerbated as the climate continues to warm (very high confidence). Under higher scenarios, and assuming no change to current water resources management, chronic, long-duration hydrological drought is increasingly possible by the end of this century. Detectable changes in some classes of flood frequency have occurred in parts of the United States and are a mix of increases and decreases. Extreme precipitation, one of the controlling factors in flood statistics, is observed to have generally increased and is projected to continue to do so across the United States in a warming atmosphere. However, formal attribution approaches have not established a significant connection of increased riverine flooding to human

  15. Use of MLCM3 Software for Flash Flood Modeling and Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Inna Pivovarova; Daria Sokolova; Artur Batyrov; Vadim Kuzmin; Ngoc Anh Tran; DinhKha Dang; Kirill V. Shemanaev

    2018-01-01

    Accurate and timely flash floods forecasting, especially, in ungauged and poorly gauged basins, is one of the most important and challenging problems to be solved by the international hydrological community. In changing climate and variable anthropogenic impact on river basins, as well as due to low density of surface hydrometeorological network, flash flood forecasting based on “traditional” physically based, or conceptual, or statistical hydrological models often becomes inefficient. Unfort...

  16. Feasibility of estimating generalized extreme-value distribution of floods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferreira de Queiroz, Manoel Moises

    2004-01-01

    Flood frequency analysis by generalized extreme-value probability distribution (GEV) has found increased application in recent years, given its flexibility in dealing with the three asymptotic forms of extreme distribution derived from different initial probability distributions. Estimation of higher quantiles of floods is usually accomplished by extrapolating one of the three inverse forms of GEV distribution fitted to the experimental data for return periods much higher than those actually observed. This paper studies the feasibility of fitting GEV distribution by moments of linear combinations of higher order statistics (LH moments) using synthetic annual flood series with varying characteristics and lengths. As the hydrologic events in nature such as daily discharge occur with finite values, their annual maximums are expected to follow the asymptotic form of the limited GEV distribution. Synthetic annual flood series were thus obtained from the stochastic sequences of 365 daily discharges generated by Monte Carlo simulation on the basis of limited probability distribution underlying the limited GEV distribution. The results show that parameter estimation by LH moments of this distribution, fitted to annual flood samples of less than 100-year length derived from initial limited distribution, may indicate any form of extreme-value distribution, not just the limited form as expected, and with large uncertainty in fitted parameters. A frequency analysis, on the basis of GEV distribution and LH moments, of annual flood series of lengths varying between 13 and 73 years observed at 88 gauge stations on Parana River in Brazil, indicated all the three forms of GEV distribution.(Author)

  17. Comparing flood loss models of different complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schröter, Kai; Kreibich, Heidi; Vogel, Kristin; Riggelsen, Carsten; Scherbaum, Frank; Merz, Bruno

    2013-04-01

    Any deliberation on flood risk requires the consideration of potential flood losses. In particular, reliable flood loss models are needed to evaluate cost-effectiveness of mitigation measures, to assess vulnerability, for comparative risk analysis and financial appraisal during and after floods. In recent years, considerable improvements have been made both concerning the data basis and the methodological approaches used for the development of flood loss models. Despite of that, flood loss models remain an important source of uncertainty. Likewise the temporal and spatial transferability of flood loss models is still limited. This contribution investigates the predictive capability of different flood loss models in a split sample cross regional validation approach. For this purpose, flood loss models of different complexity, i.e. based on different numbers of explaining variables, are learned from a set of damage records that was obtained from a survey after the Elbe flood in 2002. The validation of model predictions is carried out for different flood events in the Elbe and Danube river basins in 2002, 2005 and 2006 for which damage records are available from surveys after the flood events. The models investigated are a stage-damage model, the rule based model FLEMOps+r as well as novel model approaches which are derived using data mining techniques of regression trees and Bayesian networks. The Bayesian network approach to flood loss modelling provides attractive additional information concerning the probability distribution of both model predictions and explaining variables.

  18. 2011 floods of the central United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    2013-01-01

    The Central United States experienced record-setting flooding during 2011, with floods that extended from headwater streams in the Rocky Mountains, to transboundary rivers in the upper Midwest and Northern Plains, to the deep and wide sand-bedded lower Mississippi River. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), as part of its mission, collected extensive information during and in the aftermath of the 2011 floods to support scientific analysis of the origins and consequences of extreme floods. The information collected for the 2011 floods, combined with decades of past data, enables scientists and engineers from the USGS to provide syntheses and scientific analyses to inform emergency managers, planners, and policy makers about life-safety, economic, and environmental-health issues surrounding flood hazards for the 2011 floods and future floods like it. USGS data, information, and scientific analyses provide context and understanding of the effect of floods on complex societal issues such as ecosystem and human health, flood-plain management, climate-change adaptation, economic security, and the associated policies enacted for mitigation. Among the largest societal questions is "How do we balance agricultural, economic, life-safety, and environmental needs in and along our rivers?" To address this issue, many scientific questions have to be answered including the following: * How do the 2011 weather and flood conditions compare to the past weather and flood conditions and what can we reasonably expect in the future for flood magnitudes?

  19. Flood Water Segmentation from Crowdsourced Images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, J. K.; Minsker, B. S.

    2017-12-01

    In the United States, 176 people were killed by flooding in 2015. Along with the loss of human lives is the economic cost which is estimated to be $4.5 billion per flood event. Urban flooding has become a recent concern due to the increase in population, urbanization, and global warming. As more and more people are moving into towns and cities with infrastructure incapable of coping with floods, there is a need for more scalable solutions for urban flood management.The proliferation of camera-equipped mobile devices have led to a new source of information for flood research. In-situ photographs captured by people provide information at the local level that remotely sensed images fail to capture. Applications of crowdsourced images to flood research required understanding the content of the image without the need for user input. This paper addresses the problem of how to automatically segment a flooded and non-flooded region in crowdsourced images. Previous works require two images taken at similar angle and perspective of the location when it is flooded and when it is not flooded. We examine three different algorithms from the computer vision literature that are able to perform segmentation using a single flood image without these assumptions. The performance of each algorithm is evaluated on a collection of labeled crowdsourced flood images. We show that it is possible to achieve a segmentation accuracy of 80% using just a single image.

  20. Flood monitoring and damage assessment using water indices: A case study of Pakistan flood-2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akhtar Ali Memon

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper uses Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI of McFeeters (1996, Water Index (WI introduced by Rogers and Kearney (2004, referred to as Red and Short Wave Infra-Red (RSWIR and WI suggested as the best by Ji et al. (2009, referred to as Green and Short Wave Infra-Red (GSWIR for delineating and mapping of surface water using MODIS (Terra near real time images during 2012 floods in Pakistan. The results from above indices have been compared with Landsat ETM+ classified images aiming to assess the accuracy of the indices. Accuracy assessment has been performed using spatial statistical techniques and found NDWI, RSWIR and GSWIR with kappa coefficient (κ of 46.66%, 70.80% and 60.61% respectively. It has been observed using statistical analysis and visual interpretation (expert knowledge gained by past experience that the NDWI and GSWIR have tendencies to underestimate and overestimate respectively the inundated area. Keeping in view the above facts, RSWIR has proved to be the best of the three indices. In addition, assessment of the damages has been carried out considering accumulated flood extent obtained from RSWIR. The information derived proved to be essential and valuable for disaster management plan and rehabilitation.

  1. Collecting data for quantitative research on pluvial flooding

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spekkers, M.H.; Ten Veldhuis, J.A.E.; Clemens, F.H.L.R.

    2011-01-01

    Urban pluvial flood management requires detailed spatial and temporal information on flood characteristics and damaging consequences. There is lack of quantitative field data on pluvial flooding resulting in large uncertainties in urban flood model calculations and ensuing decisions for investments

  2. Keurbooms Estuary floods and sedimentation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eckart H. Schumann

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The Keurbooms Estuary at Plettenberg Bay lies on a wave-dominated, microtidal coast. It has a dune-topped sandy barrier, or barrier dune, almost 4 km long, with a narrow back-barrier lagoon connected to its source rivers, the Keurbooms and Bitou. The estuary exits to the sea through this barrier dune, and it is the geomorphology and mouth position in relation to floods, which is the subject of this paper. Measurements of rainfall, water level, waves and high- and low-tide water lines were used to analyse the mouth variability over the years 2006–2012. Two major floods occurred during this time, with the first in November 2007 eroding away more than 500 000 m3 of sediment. The new mouth was established at the Lookout Rocks limit – the first time since 1915. The second flood occurred in July 2012 and opened up a new mouth about 1 km to the north-east; high waves also affected the position of the breach. The mouth has a tendency to migrate southwards against the longshore drift, but at any stage this movement can be augmented or reversed. The effectiveness of floods in breaching a new mouth through the barrier dune depends on the flood size and the nature of the exit channel in the back-barrier lagoon. Other factors such as ocean waves, sea level, vegetative state of the dune and duration of the flood are also important and can determine where the breach occurs, and if the new mouth will dominate the old mouth.

  3. Statistical fault diagnosis of wind turbine drivetrain applied to a 5MW floating wind turbine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ghane, Mahdi; Nejad, Amir R.; Blanke, Mogens

    2016-01-01

    to prevent them to develop into failure, statistical change detection is used in this paper. The Cumulative Sum Method (CUSUM) is employed to detect possible defects in the downwind main bearing. A high fidelity gearbox model on a 5-MW spar-type wind turbine is used to generate data for fault-free and faulty...... conditions of the bearing at the rated wind speed and the associated wave condition. Acceleration measurements are utilized to find residuals used to indirectly detect damages in the bearing. Residuals are found to be nonGaussian, following a t-distribution with multivariable characteristic parameters...

  4. Flood risk governance arrangements in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matczak, P.; Lewandowski, J.; Choryński, A.; Szwed, M.; Kundzewicz, Z. W.

    2015-06-01

    The STAR-FLOOD (Strengthening and Redesigning European Flood Risk Practices Towards Appropriate and Resilient Flood Risk Governance Arrangements) project, funded by the European Commission, investigates strategies for dealing with flood risk in six European countries: Belgium, the UK, France, the Netherlands, Poland and Sweden and in 18 vulnerable urban regions in these countries. The project aims to describe, analyse, explain, and evaluate the main similarities and differences between the selected EU Member States in terms of development and performance of flood risk governance arrangements. It also discusses the scientific and societal importance of these similarities and differences. Attention is paid to identification and characterization of shifts in flood risk governance arrangements and in flood risk management strategies and to determination of triggering factors and restraining factors. An assessment of a change of resilience and appropriateness (legitimacy, effectiveness, efficiency) of flood risk governance arrangements in Poland is presented and comparison with other European countries is offered.

  5. Rhine Cities - Urban Flood Integration (UFI)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Redeker, C.

    2013-01-01

    While agglomerations along the Rhine are confronted with the uncertainties of an increasing flood risk due to climate change, different programs are claiming urban river front sites. Simultaneously, urban development, flood management, as well as navigation and environmental protection are

  6. Flood Insurance Rate Map, Scott County, USA

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Emergency Management Agency, Department of Homeland Security — The Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map (DFIRM) Database depicts flood risk information and supporting data used to develop the risk data. The primary risk...

  7. DIGITAL FLOOD INSURANCE RATE MAP DATABASE,

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Emergency Management Agency, Department of Homeland Security — The Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map (DFIRM) Database depicts flood risk Information And supporting data used to develop the risk data. The primary risk;...

  8. Sept 2013 NFHL Flood Hazard Boundaries

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — The National Flood Hazard Layer (NFHL) data incorporates all Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map(DFIRM) databases published by FEMA, and any Letters Of Map Revision...

  9. Seismic risks posed by mine flooding

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Goldbach, OD

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available are allowed to flood. Such flooding-induced seismicity can have significant environmental, social and economic consequences, and may endanger neighbouring mines and surface communities. While fluid-induced seismicity has been observed in other settings (e...

  10. Flood risk governance arrangements in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Matczak

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The STAR-FLOOD (Strengthening and Redesigning European Flood Risk Practices Towards Appropriate and Resilient Flood Risk Governance Arrangements project, funded by the European Commission, investigates strategies for dealing with flood risk in six European countries: Belgium, the UK, France, the Netherlands, Poland and Sweden and in 18 vulnerable urban regions in these countries. The project aims to describe, analyse, explain, and evaluate the main similarities and differences between the selected EU Member States in terms of development and performance of flood risk governance arrangements. It also discusses the scientific and societal importance of these similarities and differences. Attention is paid to identification and characterization of shifts in flood risk governance arrangements and in flood risk management strategies and to determination of triggering factors and restraining factors. An assessment of a change of resilience and appropriateness (legitimacy, effectiveness, efficiency of flood risk governance arrangements in Poland is presented and comparison with other European countries is offered.

  11. DIGITAL FLOOD INSURANCE RATE MAP DATABASE, , USA

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Emergency Management Agency, Department of Homeland Security — The Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map (DFIRM) Database depicts flood risk Information And supporting data used to develop the risk data. The primary risk;...

  12. Water NOT wanted - Coastal Floods and Flooding Protection in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Carlo Sass

    2016-01-01

    vulnerability towards coastal flooding, the country has experienced severe storm surges throughout history, and hitherto safe areas will become increasingly at risk this century as the climate changes. Historically a seafarers’ nation, Denmark has always been connected with the sea. From medieval time ports...

  13. Field note from Pakistan floods: Preventing future flood disasters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcus Oxley

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Unusually heavy monsoon rains in Northern Pakistan have caused disproportionate levels of extreme flooding and unprecedented flood losses across the entire Indus River basin. Extensive land use changes and environmental degradation in the uplands and lowlands of the river basin together with the construction of a “built environment” out of balance with the functioning, capacities, scale and limits of the local ecosystems have exposed millions of people to an increased risk of extreme #ooding. The catastrophic nature of the August #ooding provides a unique opportunity to fundamentally change Pakistan’s current socio-economic development path by incorporating disaster risk reduction and climate change measures into the post-disaster recovery process to rebuild a safer, more resilient nation. In January 2005 one hundred and sixty-eight nations adopted the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA2005-2015 to bring about a “substantial reduction in disaster losses” by 2015. Despite this global initiative a series of major disasters, including the recent flooding in Pakistan, all indicate that we are not on track to achieve the substantial reduction of disaster losses. The following fieldnote considers what can be done to accelerate progress towards implementation of the Hyogo Framework, drawing on insights and lessons learnt from the August flooding to understand how Pakistan and neighbouring countries can prevent a repeat of such catastrophic disasters in future years.

  14. Combined fluvial and pluvial urban flood hazard analysis: method development and application to Can Tho City, Mekong Delta, Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apel, H.; Trepat, O. M.; Hung, N. N.; Chinh, D. T.; Merz, B.; Dung, N. V.

    2015-08-01

    Many urban areas experience both fluvial and pluvial floods, because locations next to rivers are preferred settlement areas, and the predominantly sealed urban surface prevents infiltration and facilitates surface inundation. The latter problem is enhanced in cities with insufficient or non-existent sewer systems. While there are a number of approaches to analyse either fluvial or pluvial flood hazard, studies of combined fluvial and pluvial flood hazard are hardly available. Thus this study aims at the analysis of fluvial and pluvial flood hazard individually, but also at developing a method for the analysis of combined pluvial and fluvial flood hazard. This combined fluvial-pluvial flood hazard analysis is performed taking Can Tho city, the largest city in the Vietnamese part of the Mekong Delta, as example. In this tropical environment the annual monsoon triggered floods of the Mekong River can coincide with heavy local convective precipitation events causing both fluvial and pluvial flooding at the same time. Fluvial flood hazard was estimated with a copula based bivariate extreme value statistic for the gauge Kratie at the upper boundary of the Mekong Delta and a large-scale hydrodynamic model of the Mekong Delta. This provided the boundaries for 2-dimensional hydrodynamic inundation simulation for Can Tho city. Pluvial hazard was estimated by a peak-over-threshold frequency estimation based on local rain gauge data, and a stochastic rain storm generator. Inundation was simulated by a 2-dimensional hydrodynamic model implemented on a Graphical Processor Unit (GPU) for time-efficient flood propagation modelling. All hazards - fluvial, pluvial and combined - were accompanied by an uncertainty estimation considering the natural variability of the flood events. This resulted in probabilistic flood hazard maps showing the maximum inundation depths for a selected set of probabilities of occurrence, with maps showing the expectation (median) and the uncertainty by

  15. Flood Label for buildings : a tool for more flood-resilient cities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartmann, T.; Scheibel, Marc

    2016-01-01

    River floods are among the most expensive natural disasters in Europe. Traditional flood protection methods are not sufficient anymore. It is widely acknowledged in the scholarly debate and in practice of flood risk management that traditional flood protection measures such as dikes need to be

  16. Effectiveness of flood damage mitigation measures: Empirical evidence from French flood disasters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Poussin, J.K.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

    2015-01-01

    Recent destructive flood events and projected increases in flood risks as a result of climate change in many regions around the world demonstrate the importance of improving flood risk management. Flood-proofing of buildings is often advocated as an effective strategy for limiting damage caused by

  17. Flooding in imagination vs flooding in vivo: A comparison with agoraphobics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Emmelkamp, Paul M.G.; Wessels, Hemmy

    In this investigation of agoraphobic patients, 3 different flooding procedures were compared: (1) prolonged exposure in vivo, (2) flooding in the imagination by a ‘live’ therapist and (3) a combination of flooding in the imagination and flooding in vivo. After an intermediate-test all clients were

  18. Why are decisions in flood disaster management so poorly supported by information from flood models?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leskens, Anne; Brugnach, Marcela Fabiana; Hoekstra, Arjen Ysbert; Schuurmans, W.

    2014-01-01

    Flood simulation models can provide practitioners of Flood Disaster Management with sophisticated estimates of floods. Despite the advantages that flood simulation modeling may provide, experiences have proven that these models are of limited use. Until now, this problem has mainly been investigated

  19. National Statistical Commission and Indian Official Statistics*

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    IAS Admin

    a good collection of official statistics of that time. With more .... statistical agencies and institutions to provide details of statistical activities .... ing several training programmes. .... ful completion of Indian Statistical Service examinations, the.

  20. Economic optimisation of flood risk management projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tsimopoulou, V.

    2015-01-01

    The Netherlands has developed a flood risk management policy based on an economic rationale. After the flood disaster of 1953, when a large area of the south-western part of the country was flooded and more than 1800 people lost their lives, the so-called Delta Committee was installed, whose main

  1. Exploring logistics aspects of flood emergency measures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Leeuw, S.L.J.M.; Vis, I.F.A.; Jonkman, S.N.

    2012-01-01

    Floods are often preceded by warnings such as heavy rain that may make preparatory activities possible in order to prevent flooding from actually happening. However, flood emergency preparedness lacks insight in logistical aspects. This paper develops a framework of logistical aspects of emergency

  2. Exploring Logistics Aspects of Flood Emergency Measures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Leeuw, Sander; Vis, Iris F. A.; Jonkman, Sebastiaan N.

    Floods are often preceded by warnings such as heavy rain that may make preparatory activities possible in order to prevent flooding from actually happening. However, flood emergency preparedness lacks insight in logistical aspects. This paper develops a framework of logistical aspects of emergency

  3. Application of RUNTA code in flood analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perez Martin, F.; Benitez Fonzalez, F.

    1994-01-01

    Flood probability analyses carried out to date indicate the need to evaluate a large number of flood scenarios. This necessity is due to a variety of reasons, the most important of which include: - Large number of potential flood sources - Wide variety of characteristics of flood sources - Large possibility of flood-affected areas becoming inter linked, depending on the location of the potential flood sources - Diversity of flood flows from one flood source, depending on the size of the rupture and mode of operation - Isolation times applicable - Uncertainties in respect of the structural resistance of doors, penetration seals and floors - Applicable degrees of obstruction of floor drainage system Consequently, a tool which carries out the large number of calculations usually required in flood analyses, with speed and flexibility, is considered necessary. The RUNTA Code enables the range of possible scenarios to be calculated numerically, in accordance with all those parameters which, as a result of previous flood analyses, it is necessary to take into account in order to cover all the possible floods associated with each flood area

  4. Flood Progression Modelling and Impact Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mioc, Darka; Anton, François; Nickerson, B.

    People living in the lower valley of the St. John River, New Brunswick, Canada, frequently experience flooding when the river overflows its banks during spring ice melt and rain. To better prepare the population of New Brunswick for extreme flooding, we developed a new flood prediction model...

  5. Interconnected ponds operation for flood hazard distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putra, S. S.; Ridwan, B. W.

    2016-05-01

    The climatic anomaly, which comes with extreme rainfall, will increase the flood hazard in an area within a short period of time. The river capacity in discharging the flood is not continuous along the river stretch and sensitive to the flood peak. This paper contains the alternatives on how to locate the flood retention pond that are physically feasible to reduce the flood peak. The flood ponds were designed based on flood curve number criteria (TR-55, USDA) with the aim of rapid flood peak capturing and gradual flood retuning back to the river. As a case study, the hydrologic condition of upper Ciliwung river basin with several presumed flood pond locations was conceptually designed. A fundamental tank model that reproducing the operation of interconnected ponds was elaborated to achieve the designed flood discharge that will flows to the downstream area. The flood hazard distribution status, as the model performance criteria, will be computed within Ciliwung river reach in Manggarai Sluice Gate spot. The predicted hazard reduction with the operation of the interconnected retention area result had been bench marked with the normal flow condition.

  6. The European Flood Risk Directive and Ethics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mostert, E.; Doorn, N.

    2012-01-01

    The European Flood risk directive (2007/60/EC) requires EU Member States to review their system of flood risk management. In doing so, they will have to face ethical issues inherent in flood risk management. This paper discusses three such issues, using examples from the Netherlands. These issues

  7. 33 CFR 385.37 - Flood protection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Flood protection. 385.37 Section... DEFENSE PROGRAMMATIC REGULATIONS FOR THE COMPREHENSIVE EVERGLADES RESTORATION PLAN Ensuring Protection of... Flood protection. (a) General. In accordance with section 601 of WRDA 2000, flood protection, consistent...

  8. 46 CFR 28.580 - Unintentional flooding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Unintentional flooding. 28.580 Section 28.580 Shipping... INDUSTRY VESSELS Stability § 28.580 Unintentional flooding. (a) Applicability. Except for an open boat that... survive the assumed damage and unintentional flooding described in paragraphs (d) and (e) of this section...

  9. Extending flood damage assessment methodology to include ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Optimal and sustainable flood plain management, including flood control, can only be achieved when the impacts of flood control measures are considered for both the man-made and natural environments, and the sociological aspects are fully considered. Until now, methods/models developed to determine the influences ...

  10. Mapping flood and flooding potential indices: a methodological approach to identifying areas susceptible to flood and flooding risk. Case study: the Prahova catchment (Romania)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaharia, Liliana; Costache, Romulus; Prăvălie, Remus; Ioana-Toroimac, Gabriela

    2017-04-01

    Given that floods continue to cause yearly significant worldwide human and material damages, flood risk mitigation is a key issue and a permanent challenge in developing policies and strategies at various spatial scales. Therefore, a basic phase is elaborating hazard and flood risk maps, documents which are an essential support for flood risk management. The aim of this paper is to develop an approach that allows for the identification of flash-flood and flood-prone susceptible areas based on computing and mapping of two indices: FFPI (Flash-Flood Potential Index) and FPI (Flooding Potential Index). These indices are obtained by integrating in a GIS environment several geographical variables which control runoff (in the case of the FFPI) and favour flooding (in the case of the FPI). The methodology was applied in the upper (mountainous) and middle (hilly) catchment of the Prahova River, a densely populated and socioeconomically well-developed area which has been affected repeatedly by water-related hazards over the past decades. The resulting maps showing the spatialization of the FFPI and FPI allow for the identification of areas with high susceptibility to flashfloods and flooding. This approach can provide useful mapped information, especially for areas (generally large) where there are no flood/hazard risk maps. Moreover, the FFPI and FPI maps can constitute a preliminary step for flood risk and vulnerability assessment.

  11. Continental and global scale flood forecasting systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Emerton, Rebecca E.; Stephens, Elisabeth M.; Pappenberger, Florian; Pagano, Thomas P.; Weerts, A.H.; Wood, A.; Salamon, Peter; Brown, James D.; Hjerdt, Niclas; Donnelly, Chantal; Baugh, Calum A.; Cloke, Hannah L.

    2016-01-01

    Floods are the most frequent of natural disasters, affecting millions of people across the globe every year. The anticipation and forecasting of floods at the global scale is crucial to preparing for severe events and providing early awareness where local flood models and warning services may not

  12. Flood Risk Management in the People’s Republic of China: Learning to Live with Flood Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)

    2012-01-01

    This publication presents a shift in the People’s Republic of China from flood control depending on structural measures to integrated flood management using both structural and non-structural measures. The core of the new concept of integrated flood management is flood risk management. Flood risk management is based on an analysis of flood hazard, exposure to flood hazard, and vulnerability of people and property to danger. It is recommended that people learn to live with flood risks, gaining...

  13. Hot wet spots of Swiss buildings - detecting clusters of flood exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Röthlisberger, Veronika; Zischg, Andreas; Keiler, Margreth

    2016-04-01

    Where are the hotspots of flood exposure in Switzerland? There is no single answer but rather a wide range of findings depending on the databases and methods used. In principle, the analysis of flood exposure is the overlay of two spatial datasets, one on flood hazard and one on assets, e.g. buildings. The presented study aims to test a new developed approach which is based on public available Swiss data. On the hazard side, these are two different types of flood hazard maps each representing a similar return period beyond the dimensioning of structural protection systems. When it comes to assets we use nationwide harmonized data on building, namely a complete dataset of building polygons to which we assign features as volume, residents and monetary value. For the latter we apply findings of multivariate analyses of insurance data. By overlaying building polygons with the flood hazard map we identify the exposed buildings. We analyse the resulting spatial distribution of flood exposure at different levels of scales (local to regional) using administrative units (e.g. municipalities) but also artificial grids with a corresponding size (e.g. 5 000 m). The presentation focuses on the identification of hotspots highlighting the influence of the applied data and methods, e.g. local scan statistics testing intensities within and without potential clusters or log relative exposure surfaces based on kernel intensity estimates. We find a major difference of identified hotspots between absolute values and normalized values of exposure. Whereas the hotspots of flood exposure in absolute figures mirrors the underlying distribution of buildings, the hotspots of flood exposure ratios show very different pictures. We conclude that findings on flood exposure vary depending on the data and moreover the methods used and therefore need to be communicated carefully and appropriate to different stakeholders who may use the information for decision making on flood risk management.

  14. Modelling dynamic roughness during floods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paarlberg, Andries; Dohmen-Janssen, Catarine M.; Hulscher, Suzanne J.M.H.; Termes, A.P.P.

    2007-01-01

    In this paper, we present a dynamic roughness model to predict water levels during floods. Hysteresis effects of dune development are explicitly included. It is shown that differences between the new dynamic roughness model, and models where the roughness coefficient is calibrated, are most

  15. A Fair Approach to Flooding

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Doorn, N.

    2017-01-01

    Floods can be some of the most unexpected and devastating natural phenomena. Reducing their risks everywhere is near impossible, whether due to financial reasons or more physical obstacles. Dr Neelke Doorn at Delft University of Technology is working to improve policies related to water, with the

  16. Influences on flood frequency distributions in Irish river catchments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Ahilan

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This study explores influences on flood frequency distributions in Irish rivers. A Generalised Extreme Value (GEV type I distribution is recommended in Ireland for estimating flood quantiles in a single site flood frequency analysis. This paper presents the findings of an investigation that identified the GEV statistical distributions that best fit the annual maximum (AM data series extracted from 172 gauging stations of 126 rivers in Ireland. Analysis of these data was undertaken to explore hydraulic and hydro-geological factors that influence flood frequency distributions. A hierarchical approach of increasing statistical power that used probability plots, moment and L-moment diagrams, the Hosking goodness of fit algorithm and a modified Anderson-Darling (A-D statistical test was followed to determine whether a type I, type II or type III distribution was valid. Results of the Hosking et al. method indicated that of the 143 stations with flow records exceeding 25 yr, data for 95 (67% was best represented by GEV type I distributions and a further 9 (6% and 39 (27% stations followed type II and type III distributions respectively. Type I, type II and type III distributions were determined for 83 (58%, 16 (11% and 34 (24% stations respectively using the modified A-D method (data from 10 stations was not represented by GEV family distributions. The influence of karst terrain on these flood frequency distributions was assessed by incorporating results on an Arc-GIS platform showing karst features and using Monte Carlo simulations to assess the significance of the number and clustering of the observed distributions. Floodplain effects were identified by using two-sample t-tests to identify statistical correlations between the distributions and catchment properties that are indicative of strong floodplain activity. The data reveals that type I distributions are spatially well represented throughout the country. While also well represented throughout

  17. Interdisciplinary Approach for Assessment of Continental River Flood Risk: A Case Study of the Czech Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ushiyama, Tomoki; Kwak, Youngjoo; Ledvinka, Ondřej; Iwami, Yoichi; Danhelka, Jan

    2017-04-01

    In this research, GIS-based hydrological model-driven approach produces the distribution of continent-level flood risk based on national-level GIS data. In order to reveal flood hazard, exposure, and vulnerability in a large river basin, the system employs the simplified model such as GFiD2M (Global Flood inundation Depth 2-dimension Model) to calculate the differential inundation depth and the economic loss by pixel-based statistical processing, considering climate and socioeconomic scenarios, the representative concentration pathways emissions and the shared socioeconomic pathways, despite current limitations of data collections and poor data availability. We need new approaches to seek the possibility of its national-scale application, so that the framework can bring (1) improved flood inundation map (i.e., discharge, depth, velocity) using rainfall runoff inundation model, based on the in-situ data (rain-gauge and water level), validated with Earth Observation data, i.e., MODIS, (2) advanced flood forecasting using radar and satellite observed rainfall for national-level operational hydrological observations, (3) potential economic impact with the effect of flood hazard and risk under climate and socioeconomic changes based on rainfall from general circulation model. The preliminary examinations showed the better possibility of a nation-wide application for integrated flood risk management. At the same time, the hazard and risk model were also validated against event-based flood inundation of a national-level flood in the Czech Republic. Within the Czech Republic, although radar rainfall data have been used in operational hydrology for some time, there are also other products capable of warning us about the potential risk of floods. For instance, images from Europe's Sentinel satellites have not been evaluated for their use in Czech hydrology. This research is at the very beginning of a validation and its evaluation, focusing mainly on heavy rainfall and

  18. Stupid statistics!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tellinghuisen, Joel

    2008-01-01

    The method of least squares is probably the most powerful data analysis tool available to scientists. Toward a fuller appreciation of that power, this work begins with an elementary review of statistics fundamentals, and then progressively increases in sophistication as the coverage is extended to the theory and practice of linear and nonlinear least squares. The results are illustrated in application to data analysis problems important in the life sciences. The review of fundamentals includes the role of sampling and its connection to probability distributions, the Central Limit Theorem, and the importance of finite variance. Linear least squares are presented using matrix notation, and the significance of the key probability distributions-Gaussian, chi-square, and t-is illustrated with Monte Carlo calculations. The meaning of correlation is discussed, including its role in the propagation of error. When the data themselves are correlated, special methods are needed for the fitting, as they are also when fitting with constraints. Nonlinear fitting gives rise to nonnormal parameter distributions, but the 10% Rule of Thumb suggests that such problems will be insignificant when the parameter is sufficiently well determined. Illustrations include calibration with linear and nonlinear response functions, the dangers inherent in fitting inverted data (e.g., Lineweaver-Burk equation), an analysis of the reliability of the van't Hoff analysis, the problem of correlated data in the Guggenheim method, and the optimization of isothermal titration calorimetry procedures using the variance-covariance matrix for experiment design. The work concludes with illustrations on assessing and presenting results.

  19. Feedback on flood risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreau, K.; Roumagnac, A.

    2009-09-01

    For several years, as floods were increasing in South of France, local communities felt deprive to assume their mission of protection and information of citizens, and were looking for assistance in flood management. In term of flood disaster, the fact is that physical protection is necessary but inevitably limited. Tools and structures of assistance to anticipation remain slightly developed. To manage repeated crisis, local authorities need to be able to base their policy against flood on prevention, warnings, post-crisis analysis and feedback from former experience. In this objective, after 3 years of test and improvement since 2003, the initiative Predict-Services was developped in South of France: it aims at helping communities and companies to face repeated flood crisis. The principle is to prepare emergency plans, to organize crisis management and reduce risks; to help and assist communities and companies during crisis to activate and adapt their emergency plans with enough of anticipation; and to analyse floods effects and improve emergency plans afterwards. In order to reduce risks, and to keep the benefits of such an initiative, local communities and companies have to maintain the awareness of risk of the citizens and employees. They also have to maintain their safety plans to keep them constantly operational. This is a part of the message relayed. Companies, Local communities, local government authorities and basin stakeholders are the decision makers. Companies and local communities have to involve themselves in the elaboration of safety plans. They are also completely involved in their activation that is their own responsability. This applies to other local government authorities, like districts one's and basin stakeholders, which participle in the financing community safety plans and adminitrative district which are responsible of the transmission of meteorological alert and of rescue actions. In the crossing of the géo-information stemming from the

  20. Combining empirical approaches and error modelling to enhance predictive uncertainty estimation in extrapolation for operational flood forecasting. Tests on flood events on the Loire basin, France.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berthet, Lionel; Marty, Renaud; Bourgin, François; Viatgé, Julie; Piotte, Olivier; Perrin, Charles

    2017-04-01

    An increasing number of operational flood forecasting centres assess the predictive uncertainty associated with their forecasts and communicate it to the end users. This information can match the end-users needs (i.e. prove to be useful for an efficient crisis management) only if it is reliable: reliability is therefore a key quality for operational flood forecasts. In 2015, the French flood forecasting national and regional services (Vigicrues network; www.vigicrues.gouv.fr) implemented a framework to compute quantitative discharge and water level forecasts and to assess the predictive uncertainty. Among the possible technical options to achieve this goal, a statistical analysis of past forecasting errors of deterministic models has been selected (QUOIQUE method, Bourgin, 2014). It is a data-based and non-parametric approach based on as few assumptions as possible about the forecasting error mathematical structure. In particular, a very simple assumption is made regarding the predictive uncertainty distributions for large events outside the range of the calibration data: the multiplicative error distribution is assumed to be constant, whatever the magnitude of the flood. Indeed, the predictive distributions may not be reliable in extrapolation. However, estimating the predictive uncertainty for these rare events is crucial when major floods are of concern. In order to improve the forecasts reliability for major floods, an attempt at combining the operational strength of the empirical statistical analysis and a simple error modelling is done. Since the heteroscedasticity of forecast errors can considerably weaken the predictive reliability for large floods, this error modelling is based on the log-sinh transformation which proved to reduce significantly the heteroscedasticity of the transformed error in a simulation context, even for flood peaks (Wang et al., 2012). Exploratory tests on some operational forecasts issued during the recent floods experienced in

  1. Drivers of flood damage on event level

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kreibich, H.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Apel, H.

    2016-01-01

    example are the 2002 and 2013 floods in the Elbe and Danube catchments in Germany. The 2002 flood caused the highest economic damage (EUR 11600 million) due to a natural hazard event in Germany. Damage was so high due to extreme flood hazard triggered by extreme precipitation and a high number......-level mitigation measures, 3) more effective early warning and improved coordination of disaster response and 4) a more targeted maintenance of flood defence systems and their deliberate relocation. Thus, despite higher hydrological severity damage due to the 2013 flood was significantly lower than in 2002. In our...

  2. Urban sprawl and flooding in southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rantz, S.E.

    1970-01-01

    The floods of January 1969 in south-coastal California provide a timely example of the effect of urban sprawl on flood damage. Despite recordbreaking, or near recordbreaking, stream discharges, damage was minimal in the older developed areas that are protected against inundation and debris damage by carefully planned flood-control facilities, including debris basins and flood-conveyance channels. By contrast, heavy damage occurred in areas of more recent urban sprawl, where the hazards of inundation and debris or landslide damage have not been taken into consideration, and where the improvement and development of drainage or flood-control facilities have not kept pace with expanding urbanization.

  3. Top flooding modeling with MAAP4 code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brunet-Thibault, E.; Marguet, S.

    2006-01-01

    An engineering top flooding model was developed in MAAP4.04d.4, the severe accident code used in EDF, to simulate the thermal-hydraulic phenomena that should take place if emergency core cooling (ECC) water was injected in hot leg during quenching. In the framework of the ISTC (International Science and Technology Centre), a top flooding test was proposed in the PARAMETER facility (Podolsk, Russia). The MAAP calculation of the PARAMETER top flooding test is presented in this paper. A comparison between top and bottom flooding was made on the bundle test geometry. According to this study, top flooding appears to cool quickly and effectively the upper plenum internals. (author)

  4. Combining information from multiple flood projections in a hierarchical Bayesian framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Vine, Nataliya

    2016-04-01

    This study demonstrates, in the context of flood frequency analysis, the potential of a recently proposed hierarchical Bayesian approach to combine information from multiple models. The approach explicitly accommodates shared multimodel discrepancy as well as the probabilistic nature of the flood estimates, and treats the available models as a sample from a hypothetical complete (but unobserved) set of models. The methodology is applied to flood estimates from multiple hydrological projections (the Future Flows Hydrology data set) for 135 catchments in the UK. The advantages of the approach are shown to be: (1) to ensure adequate "baseline" with which to compare future changes; (2) to reduce flood estimate uncertainty; (3) to maximize use of statistical information in circumstances where multiple weak predictions individually lack power, but collectively provide meaningful information; (4) to diminish the importance of model consistency when model biases are large; and (5) to explicitly consider the influence of the (model performance) stationarity assumption. Moreover, the analysis indicates that reducing shared model discrepancy is the key to further reduction of uncertainty in the flood frequency analysis. The findings are of value regarding how conclusions about changing exposure to flooding are drawn, and to flood frequency change attribution studies.

  5. Merging information from multi-model flood projections in a hierarchical Bayesian framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Vine, Nataliya

    2016-04-01

    Multi-model ensembles are becoming widely accepted for flood frequency change analysis. The use of multiple models results in large uncertainty around estimates of flood magnitudes, due to both uncertainty in model selection and natural variability of river flow. The challenge is therefore to extract the most meaningful signal from the multi-model predictions, accounting for both model quality and uncertainties in individual model estimates. The study demonstrates the potential of a recently proposed hierarchical Bayesian approach to combine information from multiple models. The approach facilitates explicit treatment of shared multi-model discrepancy as well as the probabilistic nature of the flood estimates, by treating the available models as a sample from a hypothetical complete (but unobserved) set of models. The advantages of the approach are: 1) to insure an adequate 'baseline' conditions with which to compare future changes; 2) to reduce flood estimate uncertainty; 3) to maximize use of statistical information in circumstances where multiple weak predictions individually lack power, but collectively provide meaningful information; 4) to adjust multi-model consistency criteria when model biases are large; and 5) to explicitly consider the influence of the (model performance) stationarity assumption. Moreover, the analysis indicates that reducing shared model discrepancy is the key to further reduction of uncertainty in the flood frequency analysis. The findings are of value regarding how conclusions about changing exposure to flooding are drawn, and to flood frequency change attribution studies.

  6. Effects of the july 1997 floods in the Czech Republic on cardiac mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obrová, Jana; Sovová, Eliška; Ivanová, Kateřina; Táborský, Miloš; Loyka, Svatopluk

    2014-12-01

    An excess of deaths from cardiac causes are reported after many natural disasters. Despite the fact that floods are the most common and most destructive natural disaster worldwide, little is known about their effect on human health. We analyzed the influence of the greatest floods in the Czech Republic on cardiac mortality in the affected area. This was a retrospective case-control study. We analyzed persons whose autopsies proved they had died of cardiac causes during the month of the flood, 2 months before the flood, 1 month after the flood, and during the same period in the 3 previous years. A total of 207 of 985 autopsy reports met the criteria for inclusion in the study. There were no significant differences in the proportions of men and women (P=0.819) or in age (P=0.577). During the month of the flood, an increase in cardiac mortality was observed; however, the increase was not statistically significant (P=0.088). According to our findings, the 1997 Central European flood did not significantly affect cardiac mortality.

  7. Flood loss assessment in the Kota Tinggi

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tam, T H; Ibrahim, A L; Rahman, M Z A; Mazura, Z

    2014-01-01

    Malaysia is free from several destructive and widespread natural disasters but frequently affected by floods, which caused massive flood damage. In 2006 and 2007, an extreme rainfall occured in many parts of Peninsular Malaysia, which caused severe flooding in several major cities. Kota Tinggi was chosen as study area as it is one the seriously affected area in Johor state. The aim of this study is to estimate potential flood damage to physical elements in Kota Tinggi. The flood damage map contains both qualitative and quantitative information which corresponds to the consequences of flooding. This study only focuses on physical elements. Three different damage functions were adopted to calculate the potential flood damage and flood depth is considered as the main parameter. The adopted functions are United States, the Netherlands and Malaysia. The estimated flood damage for housing using United States, the Netherlands and Malaysia was RM 350/m 2 RM 200/m 2 and RM 100/m 2 respectively. These results successfully showed the average flood damage of physical element. Such important information needed by local authority and government for urban spatial planning and aiming to reduce flood risk

  8. Coping with Pluvial Floods by Private Households

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viktor Rözer

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Pluvial floods have caused severe damage to urban areas in recent years. With a projected increase in extreme precipitation as well as an ongoing urbanization, pluvial flood damage is expected to increase in the future. Therefore, further insights, especially on the adverse consequences of pluvial floods and their mitigation, are needed. To gain more knowledge, empirical damage data from three different pluvial flood events in Germany were collected through computer-aided telephone interviews. Pluvial flood awareness as well as flood experience were found to be low before the respective flood events. The level of private precaution increased considerably after all events, but is mainly focused on measures that are easy to implement. Lower inundation depths, smaller potential losses as compared with fluvial floods, as well as the fact that pluvial flooding may occur everywhere, are expected to cause a shift in damage mitigation from precaution to emergency response. However, an effective implementation of emergency measures was constrained by a low dissemination of early warnings in the study areas. Further improvements of early warning systems including dissemination as well as a rise in pluvial flood preparedness are important to reduce future pluvial flood damage.

  9. Improving Flash Flood Prediction in Multiple Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broxton, P. D.; Troch, P. A.; Schaffner, M.; Unkrich, C.; Goodrich, D.; Wagener, T.; Yatheendradas, S.

    2009-12-01

    Flash flooding is a major concern in many fast responding headwater catchments . There are many efforts to model and to predict these flood events, though it is not currently possible to adequately predict the nature of flash flood events with a single model, and furthermore, many of these efforts do not even consider snow, which can, by itself, or in combination with rainfall events, cause destructive floods. The current research is aimed at broadening the applicability of flash flood modeling. Specifically, we will take a state of the art flash flood model that is designed to work with warm season precipitation in arid environments, the KINematic runoff and EROSion model (KINEROS2), and combine it with a continuous subsurface flow model and an energy balance snow model. This should improve its predictive capacity in humid environments where lateral subsurface flow significantly contributes to streamflow, and it will make possible the prediction of flooding events that involve rain-on-snow or rapid snowmelt. By modeling changes in the hydrologic state of a catchment before a flood begins, we can also better understand the factors or combination of factors that are necessary to produce large floods. Broadening the applicability of an already state of the art flash flood model, such as KINEROS2, is logical because flash floods can occur in all types of environments, and it may lead to better predictions, which are necessary to preserve life and property.

  10. Integrating Entropy-Based Naïve Bayes and GIS for Spatial Evaluation of Flood Hazard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Rui; Chen, Yun; Wu, Jianping; Gao, Lei; Barrett, Damian; Xu, Tingbao; Li, Xiaojuan; Li, Linyi; Huang, Chang; Yu, Jia

    2017-04-01

    Regional flood risk caused by intensive rainfall under extreme climate conditions has increasingly attracted global attention. Mapping and evaluation of flood hazard are vital parts in flood risk assessment. This study develops an integrated framework for estimating spatial likelihood of flood hazard by coupling weighted naïve Bayes (WNB), geographic information system, and remote sensing. The north part of Fitzroy River Basin in Queensland, Australia, was selected as a case study site. The environmental indices, including extreme rainfall, evapotranspiration, net-water index, soil water retention, elevation, slope, drainage proximity, and density, were generated from spatial data representing climate, soil, vegetation, hydrology, and topography. These indices were weighted using the statistics-based entropy method. The weighted indices were input into the WNB-based model to delineate a regional flood risk map that indicates the likelihood of flood occurrence. The resultant map was validated by the maximum inundation extent extracted from moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery. The evaluation results, including mapping and evaluation of the distribution of flood hazard, are helpful in guiding flood inundation disaster responses for the region. The novel approach presented consists of weighted grid data, image-based sampling and validation, cell-by-cell probability inferring and spatial mapping. It is superior to an existing spatial naive Bayes (NB) method for regional flood hazard assessment. It can also be extended to other likelihood-related environmental hazard studies. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  11. Towards a better understanding of flood generation and surface water inundation mechanisms using NASA remote sensing data products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucey, J.; Reager, J. T., II; Lopez, S. R.

    2017-12-01

    Floods annually cause several weather-related fatalities and financial losses. According to NOAA and FEMA, there were 43 deaths and 18 billion dollars paid out in flood insurance policies during 2005. The goal of this work is to improve flood prediction and flood risk assessment by creating a general model of predictability of extreme runoff generation using various NASA products. Using satellite-based flood inundation observations, we can relate surface water formation processes to changes in other hydrological variables, such as precipitation, storage and soil moisture, and understand how runoff generation response to these forcings is modulated by local topography and land cover. Since it is known that a flood event would cause an abnormal increase in surface water, we examine these underlying physical relationships in comparison with the Dartmouth Flood Observatory archive of historic flood events globally. Using ground water storage observations (GRACE), precipitation (TRMM or GPCP), land use (MODIS), elevation (SRTM) and surface inundation levels (SWAMPS), an assessment of geological and climate conditions can be performed for any location around the world. This project utilizes multiple linear regression analysis evaluating the relationship between surface water inundation, total water storage anomalies and precipitation values, grouped by average slope or land use, to determine their statistical relationships and influences on inundation data. This research demonstrates the potential benefits of using global data products for early flood prediction and will improve our understanding of runoff generation processes.

  12. A comparative assessment of decision trees algorithms for flash flood susceptibility modeling at Haraz watershed, northern Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khosravi, Khabat; Pham, Binh Thai; Chapi, Kamran; Shirzadi, Ataollah; Shahabi, Himan; Revhaug, Inge; Prakash, Indra; Tien Bui, Dieu

    2018-06-15

    Floods are one of the most damaging natural hazards causing huge loss of property, infrastructure and lives. Prediction of occurrence of flash flood locations is very difficult due to sudden change in climatic condition and manmade factors. However, prior identification of flood susceptible areas can be done with the help of machine learning techniques for proper timely management of flood hazards. In this study, we tested four decision trees based machine learning models namely Logistic Model Trees (LMT), Reduced Error Pruning Trees (REPT), Naïve Bayes Trees (NBT), and Alternating Decision Trees (ADT) for flash flood susceptibility mapping at the Haraz Watershed in the northern part of Iran. For this, a spatial database was constructed with 201 present and past flood locations and eleven flood-influencing factors namely ground slope, altitude, curvature, Stream Power Index (SPI), Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), land use, rainfall, river density, distance from river, lithology, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Statistical evaluation measures, the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, and Freidman and Wilcoxon signed-rank tests were used to validate and compare the prediction capability of the models. Results show that the ADT model has the highest prediction capability for flash flood susceptibility assessment, followed by the NBT, the LMT, and the REPT, respectively. These techniques have proven successful in quickly determining flood susceptible areas. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Can we predict the next urban flood?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk; Jensen, David Getreuer

    2015-01-01

    Flooding produced by high-intensive local rainfall and drainage system capacity exceedance can have severe impacts in cities. In order to prepare cities for these types of flood events – especially in the future climate – it is valuable to be able to simulate these events numericallyboth...... historically and in real-time. There is a rather untested potential in real-time prediction of urban floods. In this paper radar data observations with different spatial and temporal resolution, radar nowcasts of 0-2 hours leadtime, and numerical weather models with leadtimes up to 24 h are used as inputs...... to an integrated flood and drainage systems model with the purpose to investigate the potential for predicting future floods. The system is tested on a small town Lystrup in Denmark, which has been recently flooded. Results show that it is possible to generate detailed flood maps in real-time with high resolution...

  14. Betwixt Droughts and Floods: Flood Management Politics in Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naila Maier-Knapp

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Attempting to create greater understanding of the political dynamics that influence domestic disaster relief and management (DRM in Thailand, this article takes a closer look at these dynamics by outlining the main actors involved in flood-related DRM. It acknowledges the importance of international and military actors but emphasises the role of national and subnational authorities. The article then identifies the central issues of DRM governance as capacity and bureaucracy and discusses these through a chronological assessment of the flood crisis in Thailand in 2011, interweaving the colourful domestic politics with various political cleavages and dichotomies, and thereby distinguishing between three main dichotomies which it considers as the central drivers of the political dynamics and institutional development of DRM. These issues can be summarised as old versus new institutions, technocracy versus bureaucracy and centralised (but with direct people-orientation through greater channels of citizenry participation versus decentralised bureaucracy with an indirect orientation towards people.

  15. Sobre inundaciones y anegamientos / Reflections on floods and flooding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ferrando A., Francisco J.

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Respecto a anegamientos e inundaciones, el autor realiza algunas precisiones conceptuales que afectan la gestión de acciones preventivas, la planificación y el ordenamiento territorial; además se ofrece una sistematización del quehacer sobre las inundaciones./ The author punctualizes the concepts regarding preventive actions and territorial planning. Also the article includes a systematized list of actions related to flood management.

  16. Improving the flash flood frequency analysis applying dendrogeomorphological evidences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Villanueva, V.; Ballesteros, J. A.; Bodoque, J. M.; Stoffel, M.; Bollschweiler, M.; Díez-Herrero, A.

    2009-09-01

    .) influenced by flash flood events were sampled using an increment borer. For each tree sampled, additional information were recorded including the geographical position (GPS measure), the geomorphological situation based on a detailed geomorphological map, the social position within neighbouring trees, a description of the external disturbances and information on tree diameter, tree height and the position of the cores extracted. 265 cores were collected. In the laboratory, the 265 samples were analyzed using the standard methods: surface preparation, counting of tree rings as well as measuring of ring widths using a digital LINTAB positioning table and TSAP 4.6 software. Increment curves of the disturbed trees were then crossdated with a reference chronology in order to correct faulty tree-ring series derived from disturbed samples and to determine initiation of abrupt growth suppression or release. The age of the trees in this field site is between 50 and 100 years old. In the field most of the trees were tilted (93 %) and showed exposed roots (64 %). In the laboratory, growth suppressions were detected in 165 samples. Based on the number of trees showing disturbances, the intensity of the disturbance and the spatial distribution of the trees in the field, seven well represented events were dated for the last 50 years: 2005, 2000, 1996, 1976, 1973, 1966 and 1963. The second field site was a reach of 2 km length along the Arenal River, where the stream is channelized. Here stumps from previously felled trees could be analyzed directly in the field. 100 Alnus glutinosa (L.) Gaertn. and Fraxinus angustifolia (Vahl.) cross sections were investigated in order to date internal wounds. Different carpenter tools, sanding paper and magnifying glasses were used to count tree rings and to date the wounds in the field. In addition to the dating in the field, 22 cross sections were sampled and analyzed in the laboratory using the standard methods. The age of the trees ranges between 30

  17. Combined fluvial and pluvial urban flood hazard analysis: concept development and application to Can Tho city, Mekong Delta, Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apel, Heiko; Martínez Trepat, Oriol; Nghia Hung, Nguyen; Thi Chinh, Do; Merz, Bruno; Viet Dung, Nguyen

    2016-04-01

    Many urban areas experience both fluvial and pluvial floods, because locations next to rivers are preferred settlement areas and the predominantly sealed urban surface prevents infiltration and facilitates surface inundation. The latter problem is enhanced in cities with insufficient or non-existent sewer systems. While there are a number of approaches to analyse either a fluvial or pluvial flood hazard, studies of a combined fluvial and pluvial flood hazard are hardly available. Thus this study aims to analyse a fluvial and a pluvial flood hazard individually, but also to develop a method for the analysis of a combined pluvial and fluvial flood hazard. This combined fluvial-pluvial flood hazard analysis is performed taking Can Tho city, the largest city in the Vietnamese part of the Mekong Delta, as an example. In this tropical environment the annual monsoon triggered floods of the Mekong River, which can coincide with heavy local convective precipitation events, causing both fluvial and pluvial flooding at the same time. The fluvial flood hazard was estimated with a copula-based bivariate extreme value statistic for the gauge Kratie at the upper boundary of the Mekong Delta and a large-scale hydrodynamic model of the Mekong Delta. This provided the boundaries for 2-dimensional hydrodynamic inundation simulation for Can Tho city. The pluvial hazard was estimated by a peak-over-threshold frequency estimation based on local rain gauge data and a stochastic rainstorm generator. Inundation for all flood scenarios was simulated by a 2-dimensional hydrodynamic model implemented on a Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) for time-efficient flood propagation modelling. The combined fluvial-pluvial flood scenarios were derived by adding rainstorms to the fluvial flood events during the highest fluvial water levels. The probabilities of occurrence of the combined events were determined assuming independence of the two flood types and taking the seasonality and probability of

  18. Flood of April 1975 at Williamston, Michigan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knutilla, R.L.; Swallow, L.A.

    1975-01-01

    On April 18 between 5 p.m. and 12 p.m. the city of Williamston experienced an intense rain storm that caused the Red Cedar River and the many small streams in the area to overflow their banks and resulted in the most devastating flood since at least 1904. Local officials estimated a loss of \\$775,000 in property damage. Damage from flooding by the Red Cedar River was caused primarily by inundation, rather than by water moving at high velocity, as is common when many streams are flooded. During the flood of April 1975 many basements were flooded as well as the lower floors of some homes in the flood plain. Additional damage occurred in places when sewers backed up and flooded basements, and when ground water seeped through basement walls and floors—situations that affected many homes including those that were well outside of the flood plain.During the time of flooding the U.S. Geological Survey obtained aerial photography and data on a streamflow to document the disaster. This report shows on a photomosaic base map the extent of flooding along the Red Cedar River at Williamston, during the flood. It also presents data obtained at stream-gaging stations near Williamston, as well as the results of peak-flow discharge measurements made on the Red Cedar River at Michigan State Highway M-52 east of the city. Information on the magnitude of the flood can guide in making decisions pertaining to the use of flood-plains in the area. It is one of a series of reports on the April 1975 flood in the Lansing metropolitan area.

  19. Aquatic chemistry of flood events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klavins, Maris; Rodinov, Valery

    2015-04-01

    During flood events a major discharge of water and dissolved substances happens. However flood waters very much differs from water composition during low-water events. Aquatic chemistry of flood waters also is of importance at the calculation of loadings as well as they might have major impact on water quality in receiving water bodies (lakes, coastal waters and seas). Further flood regime of rivers is subjected to changes due to climate change and growing impact of human activities. The aim of this study is to analyse water chemical composition changes during flood events in respect to low water periods, character of high-water events and characteristics of the corresponding basin. Within this study, the concentrations of major dissolved substances in the major rivers of Latvia have been studied using monitoring data as well as field studies during high water/ low water events. As territories of studies flows of substances in river basins/subbasins with different land-use character and different anthropogenic impacts has been studied to calculate export values depending on the land-use character. Impact of relations between dissolved substances and relations in respect to budgets has been calculated. The dynamics of DOC, nutrient and major dissolved substance flows depending on landuse pattern and soil properties in Latvia has been described, including emissions by industrial and agricultural production. In these changes evidently climate change signals can be identified. The water chemistry of a large number of rivers during flood events has been determined and the possible impact of water chemical composition on DOC and nutrient flows has been evaluated. Long-term changes (1977-2013) of concentrations of dissolved substances do not follow linear trends but rather show oscillating patterns, indicating impact of natural factors, e.g. changing hydrological and climatic conditions. There is a positive correlation between content of inert dissolved substances and

  20. Lightning activity, rainfall and flash flooding – occasional or interrelated events? A case study in the island of Crete

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. G. Koutroulis

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The majority of cyclones passing over Crete in late autumn to early winter originate from southwest, west and northwest and are of varying size and intensity. A number of these cyclones cause flash floods. The present study reports the possible relationships between lighting activity and high precipitation related to flash flood events. In this study an attempt was made to correlate the lightning number and location, recorded by the ZEUS lightning detection system, with the rainfall characteristics for sixteen rain events (4 flood and 12 non-flood events on the island of Crete, during the period 2008–2009. Spatiotemporal analysis of rain and rain rate with flash count was performed with respect to distance (radius of flashes from raingauge location at various temporal scales, in order to examine the correlation of accumulated rainfall and lightning activity. The maximum attained statistical significant correlation was obtained within a circular area of an average radius of 15 km around the raingauge, and an average time lag of flash count prior precipitation accumulation of 15 min. The maximum correlation between the lightning and rainfall data is obtained for shorter time lags for the flood events (15 min than the non-flood events (25 min, that could reflect the faster propagation of flood triggering storms due to high convective activity. Results show increased lightning activity occurring during flood triggering storms, by an average of four times higher. Furthermore, there is evidence that the number of flashes that occur during a precipitation event is related to precipitation depth when the latter is adequate to produce a flood event. Differences between flood and non-flood producing storms need to be further assessed by analyzing more independent parameters, including the synoptic conditions and dominant flash flood hydrological generating processes.

  1. Application of fuzzy weight of evidence and data mining techniques in construction of flood susceptibility map of Poyang County, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Haoyuan; Tsangaratos, Paraskevas; Ilia, Ioanna; Liu, Junzhi; Zhu, A-Xing; Chen, Wei

    2018-06-01

    In China, floods are considered as the most frequent natural disaster responsible for severe economic losses and serious damages recorded in agriculture and urban infrastructure. Based on the international experience prevention of flood events may not be completely possible, however identifying susceptible and vulnerable areas through prediction models is considered as a more visible task with flood susceptibility mapping being an essential tool for flood mitigation strategies and disaster preparedness. In this context, the present study proposes a novel approach to construct a flood susceptibility map in the Poyang County, JiangXi Province, China by implementing fuzzy weight of evidence (fuzzy-WofE) and data mining methods. The novelty of the presented approach is the usage of fuzzy-WofE that had a twofold purpose. Firstly, to create an initial flood susceptibility map in order to identify non-flood areas and secondly to weight the importance of flood related variables which influence flooding. Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machines (SVM) were implemented considering eleven flood related variables, namely: lithology, soil cover, elevation, slope angle, aspect, topographic wetness index, stream power index, sediment transport index, plan curvature, profile curvature and distance from river network. The efficiency of this new approach was evaluated using area under curve (AUC) which measured the prediction and success rates. According to the outcomes of the performed analysis, the fuzzy WofE-SVM model was the model with the highest predictive performance (AUC value, 0.9865) which also appeared to be statistical significant different from the other predictive models, fuzzy WofE-RF (AUC value, 0.9756) and fuzzy WofE-LR (AUC value, 0.9652). The proposed methodology and the produced flood susceptibility map could assist researchers and local governments in flood mitigation strategies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Evolving flood patterns in a Mediterranean region (1301-2012) and climatic factors - the case of Catalonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrera-Escoda, A.; Llasat, M. C.

    2015-01-01

    Data on flood occurrence and flood impacts for the last seven centuries in the northeastern Iberian Peninsula have been analysed in order to characterise long-term trends, anomalous periods and their relationship with different climatic factors such as precipitation, general circulation and solar activity. Catastrophic floods (those that produce complete or partial destruction of infrastructure close to the river, and major damages in the overflowed area, including some zones away from the channels) do not present a statistically significant trend, whereas extraordinary floods (the channel is overflowed and some punctual severe damages can be produced in the infrastructures placed in the rivercourse or near it, but usually damages are slight) have seen a significant rise, especially from 1850 on, and were responsible for the total increase in flooding in the region. This rise can be mainly attributed to small coastal catchments, which have experienced a marked increase in developed land and population, resulting in changes in land use and greater vulnerability. Changes in precipitation alone cannot explain the variation in flood patterns, although a certain increase was shown in late summer-early autumn, when extraordinary floods are most frequently recorded. The relationship between the North Atlantic circulation and floods is not as strong, due to the important role of mesoscale factors in heavy precipitation in the northwest of the Mediterranean region. However, it can explain the variance to some extent, mainly in relation to the catastrophic floods experienced during the autumn. Solar activity has some impact on changes in catastrophic floods, with cycles related to the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the Gleissberg solar cycle. In addition, anomalous periods of high flood frequency in autumn generally occurred during periods of increased solar activity. The physical influence of the latter in general circulation patterns, the high troposphere and the

  3. Use of documentary sources on past flood events for flood risk management and land planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cœur, Denis; Lang, Michel

    2008-09-01

    The knowledge of past catastrophic events can improve flood risk mitigation policy, with a better awareness against risk. As such historical information is usually available in Europe for the past five centuries, historians are able to understand how past society dealt with flood risk, and hydrologists can include information on past floods into an adapted probabilistic framework. In France, Flood Risk Mitigation Maps are based either on the largest historical known flood event or on the 100-year flood event if it is greater. Two actions can be suggested in terms of promoting the use of historical information for flood risk management: (1) the development of a regional flood data base, with both historical and current data, in order to get a good feedback on recent events and to improve the flood risk education and awareness; (2) the commitment to keep a persistent/perennial management of a reference network of hydrometeorological observations for climate change studies.

  4. Modeling Flood Hazard Zones at the Sub-District Level with the Rational Model Integrated with GIS and Remote Sensing Approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Asare-Kyei

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Robust risk assessment requires accurate flood intensity area mapping to allow for the identification of populations and elements at risk. However, available flood maps in West Africa lack spatial variability while global datasets have resolutions too coarse to be relevant for local scale risk assessment. Consequently, local disaster managers are forced to use traditional methods such as watermarks on buildings and media reports to identify flood hazard areas. In this study, remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS techniques were combined with hydrological and statistical models to delineate the spatial limits of flood hazard zones in selected communities in Ghana, Burkina Faso and Benin. The approach involves estimating peak runoff concentrations at different elevations and then applying statistical methods to develop a Flood Hazard Index (FHI. Results show that about half of the study areas fall into high intensity flood zones. Empirical validation using statistical confusion matrix and the principles of Participatory GIS show that flood hazard areas could be mapped at an accuracy ranging from 77% to 81%. This was supported with local expert knowledge which accurately classified 79% of communities deemed to be highly susceptible to flood hazard. The results will assist disaster managers to reduce the risk to flood disasters at the community level where risk outcomes are first materialized.

  5. A coupled hydrological-hydraulic flood inundation model calibrated using post-event measurements and integrated uncertainty analysis in a poorly gauged Mediterranean basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hdeib, Rouya; Abdallah, Chadi; Moussa, Roger; Colin, Francois

    2017-04-01

    Developing flood inundation maps of defined exceedance probabilities is required to provide information on the flood hazard and the associated risk. A methodology has been developed to model flood inundation in poorly gauged basins, where reliable information on the hydrological characteristics of floods are uncertain and partially captured by the traditional rain-gauge networks. Flood inundation is performed through coupling a hydrological rainfall-runoff (RR) model (HEC-HMS) with a hydraulic model (HEC-RAS). The RR model is calibrated against the January 2013 flood event in the Awali River basin, Lebanon (300 km2), whose flood peak discharge was estimated by post-event measurements. The resulting flows of the RR model are defined as boundary conditions of the hydraulic model, which is run to generate the corresponding water surface profiles and calibrated against 20 post-event surveyed cross sections after the January-2013 flood event. An uncertainty analysis is performed to assess the results of the models. Consequently, the coupled flood inundation model is simulated with design storms and flood inundation maps are generated of defined exceedance probabilities. The peak discharges estimated by the simulated RR model were in close agreement with the results from different empirical and statistical methods. This methodology can be extended to other poorly gauged basins facing common stage-gauge failure or characterized by floods with a stage exceeding the gauge measurement level, or higher than that defined by the rating curve.

  6. Comparing the index-flood and multiple-regression methods using L-moments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malekinezhad, H.; Nachtnebel, H. P.; Klik, A.

    In arid and semi-arid regions, the length of records is usually too short to ensure reliable quantile estimates. Comparing index-flood and multiple-regression analyses based on L-moments was the main objective of this study. Factor analysis was applied to determine main influencing variables on flood magnitude. Ward’s cluster and L-moments approaches were applied to several sites in the Namak-Lake basin in central Iran to delineate homogeneous regions based on site characteristics. Homogeneity test was done using L-moments-based measures. Several distributions were fitted to the regional flood data and index-flood and multiple-regression methods as two regional flood frequency methods were compared. The results of factor analysis showed that length of main waterway, compactness coefficient, mean annual precipitation, and mean annual temperature were the main variables affecting flood magnitude. The study area was divided into three regions based on the Ward’s method of clustering approach. The homogeneity test based on L-moments showed that all three regions were acceptably homogeneous. Five distributions were fitted to the annual peak flood data of three homogeneous regions. Using the L-moment ratios and the Z-statistic criteria, GEV distribution was identified as the most robust distribution among five candidate distributions for all the proposed sub-regions of the study area, and in general, it was concluded that the generalised extreme value distribution was the best-fit distribution for every three regions. The relative root mean square error (RRMSE) measure was applied for evaluating the performance of the index-flood and multiple-regression methods in comparison with the curve fitting (plotting position) method. In general, index-flood method gives more reliable estimations for various flood magnitudes of different recurrence intervals. Therefore, this method should be adopted as regional flood frequency method for the study area and the Namak-Lake basin

  7. Flood quantile estimation at ungauged sites by Bayesian networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mediero, L.; Santillán, D.; Garrote, L.

    2012-04-01

    stochastic generator of synthetic data was developed. Synthetic basin characteristics were randomised, keeping the statistical properties of observed physical and climatic variables in the homogeneous region. The synthetic flood quantiles were stochastically generated taking the regression equation as basis. The learnt Bayesian network was validated by the reliability diagram, the Brier Score and the ROC diagram, which are common measures used in the validation of probabilistic forecasts. Summarising, the flood quantile estimations through Bayesian networks supply information about the prediction uncertainty as a probability distribution function of discharges is given as result. Therefore, the Bayesian network model has application as a decision support for water resources and planning management.

  8. Modelling Inland Flood Events for Hazard Maps in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, S.; Nzerem, K.; Sassi, M.; Hilberts, A.; Assteerawatt, A.; Tillmanns, S.; Mathur, P.; Mitas, C.; Rafique, F.

    2015-12-01

    . Major historical flood events have been successfully simulated along with spatial patterns of flows. Comparison of stochastic discharge statistics w.r.t. observed ones from Hydrological Year Books of Taiwan over all recorded years are also in good agreement.

  9. Forecasting characteristics of flood effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khamutova, M. V.; Rezchikov, A. F.; Kushnikov, V. A.; Ivaschenko, V. A.; Bogomolov, A. S.; Filimonyuk, L. Yu; Dolinina, O. N.; Kushnikova, E. V.; Shulga, T. E.; Tverdokhlebov, V. A.; Fominykh, D. S.

    2018-05-01

    The article presents the development of a mathematical model of the system dynamics. Mathematical model allows forecasting the characteristics of flood effects. Model is based on a causal diagram and is presented by a system of nonlinear differential equations. Simulated characteristics are the nodes of the diagram, and edges define the functional relationships between them. The numerical solution of the system of equations using the Runge-Kutta method was obtained. Computer experiments to determine the characteristics on different time interval have been made and results of experiments have been compared with real data of real flood. The obtained results make it possible to assert that the developed model is valid. The results of study are useful in development of an information system for the operating and dispatching staff of the Ministry of the Russian Federation for Civil Defence, Emergencies and Elimination of Consequences of Natural Disasters (EMERCOM).

  10. Bangladesh floods, cyclones and ENSO

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choudhury, A.M.

    1994-04-01

    It has been found that in general there is a reduction of rainfall in all the regions of Bangladesh in all the seasons - premonsoon, monsoon and post monsoon during El Nino years. It has also been observed that in strong El Nino year Bangladesh is not hit by a catastrophic flood or a catastrophic cyclone. In the past, occurrence of famines in this region of the world coincided with El Nino years. The years of weak El Nino or when the El Nino index is positive seem to be favourable for the occurrence of floods and cyclones in Bangladesh. A theory of the modulation of the monsoon in Bangladesh by the Walker circulation has been described in the paper. (author). 14 refs, 7 figs, 1 tab

  11. Contaminated sediment transport during floods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fontaine, T.A.

    1992-01-01

    Over the past 48 years, operations and waste disposal activities at Oak Ridge National Laboratory have resulted in the contamination of parts of the White Oak Creek catchment. The contaminants presenting the highest risk to human health and the environment are particle reactive and are associated with the soils and sediments in the White Oak Creek drainage system. The erosion of these sediments during floods can result in the transport of contaminants both within the catchment and off-site into the Clinch River. A data collection program and a modeling investigation are being used to evaluate the probability of contaminated sediment transport during floods and to develop strategies for controlling off-site transport under present and future conditions

  12. Computerized evaluation of flood impact

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gagnon, J.; Quach, T.T.; Marche, C.; Lessard, G.

    1998-01-01

    A computerized evaluation process for assessing the economic impacts of a potential dam failure is described. The DOMINO software, which was developed by Hydro-Quebec, takes into account flow data from dam break simulations of floods, the territory involved, plus the economic evaluations of the real estate and infrastructures affected. Some examples of software applications and impact evaluations are presented. The principal elements involved in estimating economic or other types of impacts induced by natural flooding or dam failure, are: (1) flow forecasting, (2) defining the contour of the involved territory, and (3) accounting for the various impacts identified in the affected zone. Owing to its wide range of functions and utilities, DOMINO has proven to be a very useful, user-friendly and portable decision-making tool. 5 refs., 6 tabs

  13. Dynamics of the flood response to slow-fast landscape-climate feedbacks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. A. P. Perdigão

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The dynamical evolution of the flood response to landscape-climate feedbacks is evaluated in a joint nonlinear statistical-dynamical approach. For that purpose, a spatiotemporal sensitivity analysis is conducted on hydrological data from 1976–2008 over 804 catchments throughout Austria, and a general, data-independent nonlinear dynamical model is built linking floods with climate (via precipitation, landscape (via elevation and their feedbacks. These involve nonlinear scale interactions, with landform evolution processes taking place at the millennial scale (slow dynamics, and climate adjusting in years to decades (fast dynamics. The results show that floods are more responsive to spatial (regional than to temporal (decadal variability. Catchments from dry lowlands and high wetlands exhibit similarity between the spatial and temporal sensitivities (spatiotemporal symmetry and low landscape-climate codependence, suggesting they are not coevolving significantly. However, intermediate regions show differences between those sensitivities (symmetry breaks and higher landscape-climate codependence, suggesting undergoing coevolution. The break of symmetry is an emergent behaviour from nonlinear feedbacks within the system. A new coevolution index is introduced relating spatiotemporal symmetry with relative characteristic celerities, which need to be taken into account in hydrological space-time trading. Coevolution is expressed here by the interplay between slow and fast dynamics, represented respectively by spatial and temporal characteristics. The dynamical model captures emerging features of the flood dynamics and nonlinear landscape-climate feedbacks, supporting the nonlinear statistical assessment of spatiotemporally asymmetric flood change. Moreover, it enables the dynamical estimation of flood changes in space and time from the given knowledge at different spatiotemporal conditions. This study ultimately brings to light emerging signatures of

  14. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of flood risk management decisions based on stationary and nonstationary model choices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rehan Balqis M.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Current practice in flood frequency analysis assumes that the stochastic properties of extreme floods follow that of stationary conditions. As human intervention and anthropogenic climate change influences in hydrometeorological variables are becoming evident in some places, there have been suggestions that nonstationary statistics would be better to represent the stochastic properties of the extreme floods. The probabilistic estimation of non-stationary models, however, is surrounded with uncertainty related to scarcity of observations and modelling complexities hence the difficulty to project the future condition. In the face of uncertain future and the subjectivity of model choices, this study attempts to demonstrate the practical implications of applying a nonstationary model and compares it with a stationary model in flood risk assessment. A fully integrated framework to simulate decision makers’ behaviour in flood frequency analysis is thereby developed. The framework is applied to hypothetical flood risk management decisions and the outcomes are compared with those of known underlying future conditions. Uncertainty of the economic performance of the risk-based decisions is assessed through Monte Carlo simulations. Sensitivity of the results is also tested by varying the possible magnitude of future changes. The application provides quantitative and qualitative comparative results that satisfy a preliminary analysis of whether the nonstationary model complexity should be applied to improve the economic performance of decisions. Results obtained from the case study shows that the relative differences of competing models for all considered possible future changes are small, suggesting that stationary assumptions are preferred to a shift to nonstationary statistics for practical application of flood risk management. Nevertheless, nonstationary assumption should also be considered during a planning stage in addition to stationary assumption

  15. Projections of Flood Risk using Credible Climate Signals in the Ohio River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlef, K.; Robertson, A. W.; Brown, C.

    2017-12-01

    Estimating future hydrologic flood risk under non-stationary climate is a key challenge to the design of long-term water resources infrastructure and flood management strategies. In this work, we demonstrate how projections of large-scale climate patterns can be credibly used to create projections of long-term flood risk. Our study area is the northwest region of the Ohio River Basin in the United States Midwest. In the region, three major teleconnections have been previously demonstrated to affect synoptic patterns that influence extreme precipitation and streamflow: the El Nino Southern Oscillation, the Pacific North American pattern, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. These teleconnections are strongest during the winter season (January-March), which also experiences the greatest number of peak flow events. For this reason, flood events are defined as the maximum daily streamflow to occur in the winter season. For each gage in the region, the location parameter of a log Pearson type 3 distribution is conditioned on the first principal component of the three teleconnections to create a statistical model of flood events. Future projections of flood risk are created by forcing the statistical model with projections of the teleconnections from general circulation models selected for skill. We compare the results of our method to the results of two other methods: the traditional model chain (i.e., general circulation model projections to downscaling method to hydrologic model to flood frequency analysis) and that of using the historic trend. We also discuss the potential for developing credible projections of flood events for the continental United States.

  16. A Fresh Start for Flood Estimation in Ungauged Basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woods, R. A.

    2017-12-01

    The two standard methods for flood estimation in ungauged basins, regression-based statistical models and rainfall-runoff models using a design rainfall event, have survived relatively unchanged as the methods of choice for more than 40 years. Their technical implementation has developed greatly, but the models' representation of hydrological processes has not, despite a large volume of hydrological research. I suggest it is time to introduce more hydrology into flood estimation. The reliability of the current methods can be unsatisfactory. For example, despite the UK's relatively straightforward hydrology, regression estimates of the index flood are uncertain by +/- a factor of two (for a 95% confidence interval), an impractically large uncertainty for design. The standard error of rainfall-runoff model estimates is not usually known, but available assessments indicate poorer reliability than statistical methods. There is a practical need for improved reliability in flood estimation. Two promising candidates to supersede the existing methods are (i) continuous simulation by rainfall-runoff modelling and (ii) event-based derived distribution methods. The main challenge with continuous simulation methods in ungauged basins is to specify the model structure and parameter values, when calibration data are not available. This has been an active area of research for more than a decade, and this activity is likely to continue. The major challenges for the derived distribution method in ungauged catchments include not only the correct specification of model structure and parameter values, but also antecedent conditions (e.g. seasonal soil water balance). However, a much smaller community of researchers are active in developing or applying the derived distribution approach, and as a result slower progress is being made. A change in needed: surely we have learned enough about hydrology in the last 40 years that we can make a practical hydrological advance on our methods for

  17. Peak discharge, flood frequency, and peak stage of floods on Big Cottonwood Creek at U.S. Highway 50 near Coaldale, Colorado, and Fountain Creek below U.S. Highway 24 in Colorado Springs, Colorado, 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohn, Michael S.; Stevens, Michael R.; Mommandi, Amanullah; Khan, Aziz R.

    2017-12-14

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Colorado Department of Transportation, determined the peak discharge, annual exceedance probability (flood frequency), and peak stage of two floods that took place on Big Cottonwood Creek at U.S. Highway 50 near Coaldale, Colorado (hereafter referred to as “Big Cottonwood Creek site”), on August 23, 2016, and on Fountain Creek below U.S. Highway 24 in Colorado Springs, Colorado (hereafter referred to as “Fountain Creek site”), on August 29, 2016. A one-dimensional hydraulic model was used to estimate the peak discharge. To define the flood frequency of each flood, peak-streamflow regional-regression equations or statistical analyses of USGS streamgage records were used to estimate annual exceedance probability of the peak discharge. A survey of the high-water mark profile was used to determine the peak stage, and the limitations and accuracy of each component also are presented in this report. Collection and computation of flood data, such as peak discharge, annual exceedance probability, and peak stage at structures critical to Colorado’s infrastructure are an important addition to the flood data collected annually by the USGS.The peak discharge of the August 23, 2016, flood at the Big Cottonwood Creek site was 917 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) with a measurement quality of poor (uncertainty plus or minus 25 percent or greater). The peak discharge of the August 29, 2016, flood at the Fountain Creek site was 5,970 ft3/s with a measurement quality of poor (uncertainty plus or minus 25 percent or greater).The August 23, 2016, flood at the Big Cottonwood Creek site had an annual exceedance probability of less than 0.01 (return period greater than the 100-year flood) and had an annual exceedance probability of greater than 0.005 (return period less than the 200-year flood). The August 23, 2016, flood event was caused by a precipitation event having an annual exceedance probability of 1.0 (return

  18. Climate Change Adaptation Decision Making for Glacial Lake Outburst Floods From Palcacocha Lake in Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuellar, A. D.; McKinney, D. C.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change has accelerated glacial retreat in high altitude glaciated regions of Peru leading to the growth and formation of glacier lakes. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) are sudden events triggered by an earthquake, avalanche into the lake or other shock that causes a sudden outflow of water. These floods are catastrophic because of their sudden onset, the difficulty predicting them, and enormous quantity of water and debris rapidly flooding downstream areas. Palcacocha Lake in the Peruvian Andes has experienced accelerated growth since it burst in 1941 and threatens the major city of Huaraz and surrounding communities. Since the 1941 flood stakeholders have advocated for projects to adapt to the increasing threat posed by Palcacocha Lake. Nonetheless, discussions surrounding projects for Palcacocha have not included a rigorous analysis of the potential consequences of a flood, probability of an event, or costs of mitigation projects. This work presents the first step to rationally analyze the risks posed by Palcacocha Lake and the various adaptation projects proposed. In this work the authors use decision analysis to asses proposed adaptation measures that would mitigate damage in downstream communities from a GLOF. We use an existing hydrodynamic model of the at-risk area to determine how adaptation projects will affect downstream flooding. Flood characteristics are used in the HEC-FIA software to estimate fatalities and injuries from an outburst flood, which we convert to monetary units using the value of a statistical life. We combine the monetary consequences of a GLOF with the cost of the proposed projects and a diffuse probability distribution for the likelihood of an event to estimate the expected cost of the adaptation plans. From this analysis we found that lowering the lake level by 15 meters has the least expected cost of any proposal despite uncertainty in the effect of lake lowering on flooding downstream.

  19. Floods and human health: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alderman, Katarzyna; Turner, Lyle R; Tong, Shilu

    2012-10-15

    Floods are the most common type of disaster globally, responsible for almost 53,000 deaths in the last decade alone (23:1 low- versus high-income countries). This review assessed recent epidemiological evidence on the impacts of floods on human health. Published articles (2004-2011) on the quantitative relationship between floods and health were systematically reviewed. 35 relevant epidemiological studies were identified. Health outcomes were categorized into short- and long-term and were found to depend on the flood characteristics and people's vulnerability. It was found that long-term health effects are currently not well understood. Mortality rates were found to increase by up to 50% in the first year post-flood. After floods, it was found there is an increased risk of disease outbreaks such as hepatitis E, gastrointestinal disease and leptospirosis, particularly in areas with poor hygiene and displaced populations. Psychological distress in survivors (prevalence 8.6% to 53% two years post-flood) can also exacerbate their physical illness. There is a need for effective policies to reduce and prevent flood-related morbidity and mortality. Such steps are contingent upon the improved understanding of potential health impacts of floods. Global trends in urbanization, burden of disease, malnutrition and maternal and child health must be better reflected in flood preparedness and mitigation programs. Crown Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Structural master plan of flood mitigation measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Heidari

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Flood protection is one of the practical methods in damage reduction. Although it not possible to be completely protected from flood disaster but major part of damages can be reduced by mitigation plans. In this paper, the optimum flood mitigation master plan is determined by economic evaluation in trading off between the construction costs and expected value of damage reduction as the benefits. Size of the certain mitigation alternative is also be obtained by risk analysis by accepting possibility of flood overtopping. Different flood mitigation alternatives are investigated from various aspects in the Dez and Karun river floodplain areas as a case study in south west of IRAN. The results show that detention dam and flood diversion are the best alternatives of flood mitigation methods as well as enforcing the flood control purpose of upstream multipurpose reservoirs. Dyke and levees are not mostly justifiable because of negative impact on down stream by enhancing routed flood peak discharge magnitude and flood damages as well.

  1. Predicting floods with Flickr tags.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tkachenko, Nataliya; Jarvis, Stephen; Procter, Rob

    2017-01-01

    Increasingly, user generated content (UGC) in social media postings and their associated metadata such as time and location stamps are being used to provide useful operational information during natural hazard events such as hurricanes, storms and floods. The main advantage of these new sources of data are twofold. First, in a purely additive sense, they can provide much denser geographical coverage of the hazard as compared to traditional sensor networks. Second, they provide what physical sensors are not able to do: By documenting personal observations and experiences, they directly record the impact of a hazard on the human environment. For this reason interpretation of the content (e.g., hashtags, images, text, emojis, etc) and metadata (e.g., keywords, tags, geolocation) have been a focus of much research into social media analytics. However, as choices of semantic tags in the current methods are usually reduced to the exact name or type of the event (e.g., hashtags '#Sandy' or '#flooding'), the main limitation of such approaches remains their mere nowcasting capacity. In this study we make use of polysemous tags of images posted during several recent flood events and demonstrate how such volunteered geographic data can be used to provide early warning of an event before its outbreak.

  2. Bayesian flood forecasting methods: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Shasha; Coulibaly, Paulin

    2017-08-01

    Over the past few decades, floods have been seen as one of the most common and largely distributed natural disasters in the world. If floods could be accurately forecasted in advance, then their negative impacts could be greatly minimized. It is widely recognized that quantification and reduction of uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecast is of great importance for flood estimation and rational decision making. Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) offers an ideal theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification that can be developed for probabilistic flood forecasting via any deterministic hydrologic model. It provides suitable theoretical structure, empirically validated models and reasonable analytic-numerical computation method, and can be developed into various Bayesian forecasting approaches. This paper presents a comprehensive review on Bayesian forecasting approaches applied in flood forecasting from 1999 till now. The review starts with an overview of fundamentals of BFS and recent advances in BFS, followed with BFS application in river stage forecasting and real-time flood forecasting, then move to a critical analysis by evaluating advantages and limitations of Bayesian forecasting methods and other predictive uncertainty assessment approaches in flood forecasting, and finally discusses the future research direction in Bayesian flood forecasting. Results show that the Bayesian flood forecasting approach is an effective and advanced way for flood estimation, it considers all sources of uncertainties and produces a predictive distribution of the river stage, river discharge or runoff, thus gives more accurate and reliable flood forecasts. Some emerging Bayesian forecasting methods (e.g. ensemble Bayesian forecasting system, Bayesian multi-model combination) were shown to overcome limitations of single model or fixed model weight and effectively reduce predictive uncertainty. In recent years, various Bayesian flood forecasting approaches have been

  3. Modeling of the solid-solution partitioning of heavy metals and arsenic in embanked flood plain soils of the rivers Rhine and Meuse

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schröder, T.J.; Hiemstra, T.; Vink, J.P.M.

    2005-01-01

    The aim of this study is to predict the solid-solution partitioning of heavy metals in river flood plain soils. We compared mechanistic geochemical modeling with a statistical approach. To characterize the heavy metal contamination of embanked river flood plain soils in The Netherlands, we collected

  4. Going beyond the flood insurance rate map: insights from flood hazard map co-production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Luke

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Flood hazard mapping in the United States (US is deeply tied to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP. Consequently, publicly available flood maps provide essential information for insurance purposes, but they do not necessarily provide relevant information for non-insurance aspects of flood risk management (FRM such as public education and emergency planning. Recent calls for flood hazard maps that support a wider variety of FRM tasks highlight the need to deepen our understanding about the factors that make flood maps useful and understandable for local end users. In this study, social scientists and engineers explore opportunities for improving the utility and relevance of flood hazard maps through the co-production of maps responsive to end users' FRM needs. Specifically, two-dimensional flood modeling produced a set of baseline hazard maps for stakeholders of the Tijuana River valley, US, and Los Laureles Canyon in Tijuana, Mexico. Focus groups with natural resource managers, city planners, emergency managers, academia, non-profit, and community leaders refined the baseline hazard maps by triggering additional modeling scenarios and map revisions. Several important end user preferences emerged, such as (1 legends that frame flood intensity both qualitatively and quantitatively, and (2 flood scenario descriptions that report flood magnitude in terms of rainfall, streamflow, and its relation to an historic event. Regarding desired hazard map content, end users' requests revealed general consistency with mapping needs reported in European studies and guidelines published in Australia. However, requested map content that is not commonly produced included (1 standing water depths following the flood, (2 the erosive potential of flowing water, and (3 pluvial flood hazards, or flooding caused directly by rainfall. We conclude that the relevance and utility of commonly produced flood hazard maps can be most improved by illustrating

  5. Going beyond the flood insurance rate map: insights from flood hazard map co-production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luke, Adam; Sanders, Brett F.; Goodrich, Kristen A.; Feldman, David L.; Boudreau, Danielle; Eguiarte, Ana; Serrano, Kimberly; Reyes, Abigail; Schubert, Jochen E.; AghaKouchak, Amir; Basolo, Victoria; Matthew, Richard A.

    2018-04-01

    Flood hazard mapping in the United States (US) is deeply tied to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Consequently, publicly available flood maps provide essential information for insurance purposes, but they do not necessarily provide relevant information for non-insurance aspects of flood risk management (FRM) such as public education and emergency planning. Recent calls for flood hazard maps that support a wider variety of FRM tasks highlight the need to deepen our understanding about the factors that make flood maps useful and understandable for local end users. In this study, social scientists and engineers explore opportunities for improving the utility and relevance of flood hazard maps through the co-production of maps responsive to end users' FRM needs. Specifically, two-dimensional flood modeling produced a set of baseline hazard maps for stakeholders of the Tijuana River valley, US, and Los Laureles Canyon in Tijuana, Mexico. Focus groups with natural resource managers, city planners, emergency managers, academia, non-profit, and community leaders refined the baseline hazard maps by triggering additional modeling scenarios and map revisions. Several important end user preferences emerged, such as (1) legends that frame flood intensity both qualitatively and quantitatively, and (2) flood scenario descriptions that report flood magnitude in terms of rainfall, streamflow, and its relation to an historic event. Regarding desired hazard map content, end users' requests revealed general consistency with mapping needs reported in European studies and guidelines published in Australia. However, requested map content that is not commonly produced included (1) standing water depths following the flood, (2) the erosive potential of flowing water, and (3) pluvial flood hazards, or flooding caused directly by rainfall. We conclude that the relevance and utility of commonly produced flood hazard maps can be most improved by illustrating pluvial flood hazards

  6. Sustainable flood memories, lay knowledges and the development of community resilience to future flood risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    McEwen Lindsey

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Shifts to devolved flood risk management in the UK pose questions about how the changing role of floodplain residents in community-led adaptation planning can be supported and strengthened. This paper shares insights from an interdisciplinary research project that has proposed the concept of ‘sustainable flood memory’ in the context of effective flood risk management. The research aimed to increase understanding of whether and how flood memories from the UK Summer 2007 extreme floods provide a platform for developing lay knowledges and flood resilience. The project investigated what factors link flood memory and lay knowledges of flooding, and how these connect and disconnect during and after flood events. In particular, and relation to flood governance directions, we sought to explore how such memories might play a part in individual and community resilience. The research presented here explores some key themes drawn from semi-structured interviews with floodplain residents with recent flood experiences in contrasting demographic and physical settings in the lower River Severn catchment. These include changing practices in making flood memories and materialising flood knowledge and the roles of active remembering and active forgetting.

  7. Estimation of flood environmental effects using flood zone mapping techniques in Halilrood Kerman, Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boudaghpour, Siamak; Bagheri, Majid; Bagheri, Zahra

    2014-01-01

    High flood occurrences with large environmental damages have a growing trend in Iran. Dynamic movements of water during a flood cause different environmental damages in geographical areas with different characteristics such as topographic conditions. In general, environmental effects and damages caused by a flood in an area can be investigated from different points of view. The current essay is aiming at detecting environmental effects of flood occurrences in Halilrood catchment area of Kerman province in Iran using flood zone mapping techniques. The intended flood zone map was introduced in four steps. Steps 1 to 3 pave the way to calculate and estimate flood zone map in the understudy area while step 4 determines the estimation of environmental effects of flood occurrence. Based on our studies, wide range of accuracy for estimating the environmental effects of flood occurrence was introduced by using of flood zone mapping techniques. Moreover, it was identified that the existence of Jiroft dam in the study area can decrease flood zone from 260 hectares to 225 hectares and also it can decrease 20% of flood peak intensity. As a result, 14% of flood zone in the study area can be saved environmentally.

  8. Capturing spatial and temporal patterns of widespread, extreme flooding across Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busby, Kathryn; Raven, Emma; Liu, Ye

    2013-04-01

    Statistical characterisation of physical hazards is an integral part of probabilistic catastrophe models used by the reinsurance industry to estimate losses from large scale events. Extreme flood events are not restricted by country boundaries which poses an issue for reinsurance companies as their exposures often extend beyond them. We discuss challenges and solutions that allow us to appropriately capture the spatial and temporal dependence of extreme hydrological events on a continental-scale, which in turn enables us to generate an industry-standard stochastic event set for estimating financial losses for widespread flooding. By presenting our event set methodology, we focus on explaining how extreme value theory (EVT) and dependence modelling are used to account for short, inconsistent hydrological data from different countries, and how to make appropriate statistical decisions that best characterise the nature of flooding across Europe. The consistency of input data is of vital importance when identifying historical flood patterns. Collating data from numerous sources inherently causes inconsistencies and we demonstrate our robust approach to assessing the data and refining it to compile a single consistent dataset. This dataset is then extrapolated using a parameterised EVT distribution to estimate extremes. Our method then captures the dependence of flood events across countries using an advanced multivariate extreme value model. Throughout, important statistical decisions are explored including: (1) distribution choice; (2) the threshold to apply for extracting extreme data points; (3) a regional analysis; (4) the definition of a flood event, which is often linked with reinsurance industry's hour's clause; and (5) handling of missing values. Finally, having modelled the historical patterns of flooding across Europe, we sample from this model to generate our stochastic event set comprising of thousands of events over thousands of years. We then briefly

  9. A new automatic SAR-based flood mapping application hosted on the European Space Agency's grid processing on demand fast access to imagery environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hostache, Renaud; Chini, Marco; Matgen, Patrick; Giustarini, Laura

    2013-04-01

    There is a clear need for developing innovative processing chains based on earth observation (EO) data to generate products supporting emergency response and flood management at a global scale. Here an automatic flood mapping application is introduced. The latter is currently hosted on the Grid Processing on Demand (G-POD) Fast Access to Imagery (Faire) environment of the European Space Agency. The main objective of the online application is to deliver flooded areas using both recent and historical acquisitions of SAR data in an operational framework. It is worth mentioning that the method can be applied to both medium and high resolution SAR images. The flood mapping application consists of two main blocks: 1) A set of query tools for selecting the "crisis image" and the optimal corresponding pre-flood "reference image" from the G-POD archive. 2) An algorithm for extracting flooded areas using the previously selected "crisis image" and "reference image". The proposed method is a hybrid methodology, which combines histogram thresholding, region growing and change detection as an approach enabling the automatic, objective and reliable flood extent extraction from SAR images. The method is based on the calibration of a statistical distribution of "open water" backscatter values inferred from SAR images of floods. Change detection with respect to a pre-flood reference image helps reducing over-detection of inundated areas. The algorithms are computationally efficient and operate with minimum data requirements, considering as input data a flood image and a reference image. Stakeholders in flood management and service providers are able to log onto the flood mapping application to get support for the retrieval, from the rolling archive, of the most appropriate pre-flood reference image. Potential users will also be able to apply the implemented flood delineation algorithm. Case studies of several recent high magnitude flooding events (e.g. July 2007 Severn River flood

  10. Flood hazards for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yen, B.C.

    1988-01-01

    Flooding hazards for nuclear power plants may be caused by various external geophysical events. In this paper the hydrologic hazards from flash floods, river floods and heavy rain at the plant site are considered. Depending on the mode of analysis, two types of hazard evaluation are identified: 1) design hazard which is the probability of flooding over an expected service period, and 2) operational hazard which deals with real-time forecasting of the probability of flooding of an incoming event. Hazard evaluation techniques using flood frequency analysis can only be used for type 1) design hazard. Evaluation techniques using rainfall-runoff simulation or multi-station correlation can be used for both types of hazard prediction. (orig.)

  11. Evaluation of internal flooding in a BWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shiu, K.; Papazoglou, I.A.; Sun, Y.H.; Anavim, E.; Ilberg, D.

    1985-01-01

    Flooding inside a nuclear power station is capable of concurrently disabling redundant safety systems. This paper presents the results of a recent review study performed on internally-generated floods inside a boiling water reactor (BWR) reactor building. The study evaluated the flood initiator frequency due to either maintenance or ruptures using Markovian models. A time phased event tree approach was adopted to quantify the core damage frequency based on the flood initiator frequency. It is found in the study that the contribution to the total core damage due to internal flooding events is not insignificant and is comparable to other transient contributors. The findings also indicate that the operator plays an important role in the prevention as well as the mitigation of a flooding event

  12. [Climate changes, floods, and health consequences].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michelozzi, Paola; de' Donato, Francesca

    2014-02-01

    In the European Region, floods are the most common natural disaster, causing extensive damage and disruption. In Italy, it has been estimated that over 68% of municipalities are at high hydrogeological risk and with the recent intense rainfall events local populations have been facing severe disruptions. The health consequences of floods are wide ranging and are dependent upon the vulnerability of the environment and the local population. Health effects can be a direct or indirect consequence of flooding. The immediate health impacts of floods include drowning, heart attacks, injuries and hypothermia. The indirect effects include, injuries and infections, water-borne infectious disease, mental health problems, respiratory disease and allergies in both the medium and long term after a flood. Future efforts should be addressed to integrate health preparedness and prevention measures into emergency flood plans and hydrological warning systems.

  13. 44 CFR 78.6 - Flood Mitigation Plan approval process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Flood Mitigation Plan..., DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program FLOOD MITIGATION ASSISTANCE § 78.6 Flood Mitigation Plan approval process. The State POC will forward all Flood...

  14. 44 CFR 78.5 - Flood Mitigation Plan development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Flood Mitigation Plan..., DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program FLOOD MITIGATION ASSISTANCE § 78.5 Flood Mitigation Plan development. A Flood Mitigation Plan will articulate a...

  15. 78 FR 52955 - Changes in Flood Hazard Determinations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-27

    ... community that the Deputy Associate Administrator for Mitigation reconsider the changes. The flood hazard...; Internal Agency Docket No. FEMA-B-1349] Changes in Flood Hazard Determinations AGENCY: Federal Emergency... modification of Base Flood Elevations (BFEs), base flood depths, Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) boundaries or...

  16. Structural master plan of flood mitigation measures

    OpenAIRE

    A. Heidari

    2009-01-01

    Flood protection is one of the practical methods in damage reduction. Although it not possible to be completely protected from flood disaster but major part of damages can be reduced by mitigation plans. In this paper, the optimum flood mitigation master plan is determined by economic evaluation in trading off between the construction costs and expected value of damage reduction as the benefits. Size of the certain mitigation alternative is also be obtained by risk analysis by accepting possi...

  17. Using cost-benefit concepts in design floods improves communication of uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganora, Daniele; Botto, Anna; Laio, Francesco; Claps, Pierluigi

    2017-04-01

    Flood frequency analysis, i.e. the study of the relationships between the magnitude and the rarity of high flows in a river, is the usual procedure adopted to assess flood hazard, preliminary to the plan/design of flood protection measures. It grounds on the fit of a probability distribution to the peak discharge values recorded in gauging stations and the final estimates over a region are thus affected by uncertainty, due to the limited sample availability and of the possible alternatives in terms of the probabilistic model and the parameter estimation methods used. In the last decade, the scientific community dealt with this issue by developing a number of methods to quantify such uncertainty components. Usually, uncertainty is visually represented through confidence bands, which are easy to understand, but are not yet demonstrated to be useful for design purposes: they usually disorient decision makers, as the design flood is no longer univocally defined, making the decision process undetermined. These considerations motivated the development of the uncertainty-compliant design flood estimator (UNCODE) procedure (Botto et al., 2014) that allows one to select meaningful flood design values accounting for the associated uncertainty by considering additional constraints based on cost-benefit criteria. This method suggests an explicit multiplication factor that corrects the traditional (without uncertainty) design flood estimates to incorporate the effects of uncertainty in the estimate at the same safety level. Even though the UNCODE method was developed for design purposes, it can represent a powerful and robust tool to help clarifying the effects of the uncertainty in statistical estimation. As the process produces increased design flood estimates, this outcome demonstrates how uncertainty leads to more expensive flood protection measures, or insufficiency of current defenses. Moreover, the UNCODE approach can be used to assess the "value" of data, as the costs

  18. Reconstruction of the 1945 Wieringermeer Flood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoes, O. A. C.; Hut, R. W.; van de Giesen, N. C.; Boomgaard, M.

    2013-03-01

    The present state-of-the-art in flood risk assessment focuses on breach models, flood propagation models, and economic modelling of flood damage. However, models need to be validated with real data to avoid erroneous conclusions. Such reference data can either be historic data, or can be obtained from controlled experiments. The inundation of the Wieringermeer polder in the Netherlands in April 1945 is one of the few examples for which sufficient historical information is available. The objective of this article is to compare the flood simulation with flood data from 1945. The context, the breach growth process and the flood propagation are explained. Key findings for current flood risk management addresses the importance of the drainage canal network during the inundation of a polder, and the uncertainty that follows from not knowing the breach growth parameters. This case study shows that historical floods provide valuable data for the validation of models and reveal lessons that are applicable in current day flood risk management.

  19. Lessons Learned from Southeast Asian Floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osti, R.; Tanaka, S.

    2009-04-01

    At certain scales, flood has always been the lifeline of many people from Southeast Asian countries. People are traditionally accustomed to living with such floods and their livelihood is adjusted accordingly to optimize the benefits from the floods. However, large scale flood occasionally turns into the disaster and causes massive destruction not only in terms of human causalities but also damage to economic, ecological and social harmonies in the region. Although economic growth is prevailing in a relative term, the capacity of people to cope with such extreme events is weakening therefore the flood disaster risk is increasing in time. Recent examples of flood disaster in the region clearly show the increasing severity of disaster impact. This study reveals that there are many factors, which directly or indirectly influence the change. This paper considers the most prominent natural and socio-economic factors and analyzes their trend with respect to flood disasters in each country's context. A regional scale comparative analysis further helps to exchange the know how and to determine what kind of strategy and policy are lacking to manage the floods in a long run. It is also helpful in identifying the critical sectors that should be addressed first to mitigate the potential damage from the floods.

  20. Polders as active element of flood control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zilavy, M.

    2004-01-01

    In this presentation author deals with use of the polders as active element of flood control on the example Kysuca River and Podluzianka River (Slovakia). It was concluded that it is necessary: - dense network of rain gauge stations; - network of water level recorders; revision of design process for hydraulic objects - degree of safety; changes in legislation - permission for construction in flood-plains; maintenance of channel capacity; early flood forecasting - forecasting and warning service; river training works and maintenance; design of retention areas; preparation of retention areas prior to flood propagation

  1. After the flood is before the next flood - post event review of the Central European Floods of June 2013. Insights, recommendations and next steps for future flood prevention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szoenyi, Michael; Mechler, Reinhard; McCallum, Ian

    2015-04-01

    In early June 2013, severe flooding hit Central and Eastern Europe, causing extensive damage, in particular along the Danube and Elbe main watersheds. The situation was particularly severe in Eastern Germany, Austria, Hungary and the Czech Republic. Based on the Post Event Review Capability (PERC) approach, developed by Zurich Insurance's Flood Resilience Program to provide independent review of large flood events, we examine what has worked well (best practice) and opportunities for further improvement. The PERC overall aims to thoroughly examine aspects of flood resilience, flood risk management and catastrophe intervention in order to help build back better after events and learn for future events. As our research from post event analyses shows a lot of losses are in fact avoidable by taking the right measures pre-event and these measures are economically - efficient with a return of 4 Euro on losses saved for every Euro invested in prevention on average (Wharton/IIASA flood resilience alliance paper on cost benefit analysis, Mechler et al. 2014) and up to 10 Euros for certain countries. For the 2013 flood events we provide analysis on the following aspects and in general identify a number of factors that worked in terms of reducing the loss and risk burden. 1. Understanding risk factors of the Central European Floods 2013 We review the precursors leading up to the floods in June, with an extremely wet May 2013 and an atypical V-b weather pattern that brought immense precipitation in a very short period to the watersheds of Elbe, Donau and partially the Rhine in the D-A-CH countries and researched what happened during the flood and why. Key questions we asked revolve around which protection and risk reduction approaches worked well and which did not, and why. 2. Insights and recommendations from the post event review The PERC identified a number of risk factors, which need attention if risk is to be reduced over time. • Yet another "100-year flood" - risk

  2. Flood forecasting and warning systems in Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali Awan, Shaukat

    2004-01-01

    Meteorologically, there are two situations which may cause three types of floods in Indus Basin in Pakistan: i) Meteorological Situation for Category-I Floods when the seasonal low is a semi permanent weather system situated over south eastern Balochistan, south western Punjab, adjoining parts of Sindh get intensified and causes the moisture from the Arabian Sea to be brought up to upper catchments of Chenab and Jhelum rivers. (ii) Meteorological Situation for Category-11 and Category-111 Floods, which is linked with monsoon low/depression. Such monsoon systems originate in Bay of Bengal region and then move across India in general west/north westerly direction arrive over Rajasthan or any of adjoining states of India. Flood management in Pakistan is multi-functional process involving a number of different organizations. The first step in the process is issuance of flood forecast/warning, which is performed by Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) utilizing satellite cloud pictures and quantitative precipitation measurement radar data, in addition to the conventional weather forecasting facilities. For quantitative flood forecasting, hydrological data is obtained through the Provincial Irrigation Department and WAPDA. Furthermore, improved rainfall/runoff and flood routing models have been developed to provide more reliable and explicit flood information to a flood prone population.(Author)

  3. Simulating Catchment Scale Afforestation for Mitigating Flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, M. S.; Bathurst, J. C.; Quinn, P. F.; Birkinshaw, S.

    2016-12-01

    After the 2013-14, and the more recent 2015-16, winter floods in the UK there were calls to 'forest the uplands' as a solution to reducing flood risk across the nation. However, the role of forests as a natural flood management practice remains highly controversial, due to a distinct lack of robust evidence into its effectiveness in reducing flood risk during extreme events. This project aims to improve the understanding of the impacts of upland afforestation on flood risk at the sub-catchment and full catchment scales. This will be achieved through an integrated fieldwork and modelling approach, with the use of a series of process based hydrological models to scale up and examine the effects forestry can have on flooding. Furthermore, there is a need to analyse the extent to which land management practices, catchment system engineering and the installation of runoff attenuation features (RAFs), such as engineered log jams, in headwater catchments can attenuate flood-wave movement, and potentially reduce downstream flood risk. Additionally, the proportion of a catchment or riparian reach that would need to be forested in order to achieve a significant impact on reducing downstream flooding will be defined. The consequential impacts of a corresponding reduction in agriculturally productive farmland and the potential decline of water resource availability will also be considered in order to safeguard the UK's food security and satisfy the global demand on water resources.

  4. Flood Foresight: A near-real time flood monitoring and forecasting tool for rapid and predictive flood impact assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Revilla-Romero, Beatriz; Shelton, Kay; Wood, Elizabeth; Berry, Robert; Bevington, John; Hankin, Barry; Lewis, Gavin; Gubbin, Andrew; Griffiths, Samuel; Barnard, Paul; Pinnell, Marc; Huyck, Charles

    2017-04-01

    The hours and days immediately after a major flood event are often chaotic and confusing, with first responders rushing to mobilise emergency responders, provide alleviation assistance and assess loss to assets of interest (e.g., population, buildings or utilities). Preparations in advance of a forthcoming event are becoming increasingly important; early warning systems have been demonstrated to be useful tools for decision markers. The extent of damage, human casualties and economic loss estimates can vary greatly during an event, and the timely availability of an accurate flood extent allows emergency response and resources to be optimised, reduces impacts, and helps prioritise recovery. In the insurance sector, for example, insurers are under pressure to respond in a proactive manner to claims rather than waiting for policyholders to report losses. Even though there is a great demand for flood inundation extents and severity information in different sectors, generating flood footprints for large areas from hydraulic models in real time remains a challenge. While such footprints can be produced in real time using remote sensing, weather conditions and sensor availability limit their ability to capture every single flood event across the globe. In this session, we will present Flood Foresight (www.floodforesight.com), an operational tool developed to meet the universal requirement for rapid geographic information, before, during and after major riverine flood events. The tool provides spatial data with which users can measure their current or predicted impact from an event - at building, basin, national or continental scales. Within Flood Foresight, the Screening component uses global rainfall predictions to provide a regional- to continental-scale view of heavy rainfall events up to a week in advance, alerting the user to potentially hazardous situations relevant to them. The Forecasting component enhances the predictive suite of tools by providing a local

  5. Childhood Cancer Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Watchdog Ratings Feedback Contact Select Page Childhood Cancer Statistics Home > Cancer Resources > Childhood Cancer Statistics Childhood Cancer Statistics – Graphs and Infographics Number of Diagnoses Incidence Rates ...

  6. Operational flood forecasting, warning and response for multi-scale flood risks in developing cities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rogelis Prada, M.C.

    2016-01-01

    Flood early warning systems are recognized as one of the most effective flood risk management instruments when correctly embedded in comprehensive flood risk management strategies and policies. Many efforts around the world are being put in place to advance the components that determine the

  7. Do flood risk perceptions provide useful insights for flood risk management? Findings from central Vietnam

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bubeck, P.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Suu, L.T.T.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

    2012-01-01

    Following the renewed attention for non-structural flood risk reduction measures implemented at the household level, there has been an increased interest in individual flood risk perceptions. The reason for this is the commonly-made assumption that flood risk perceptions drive the motivation of

  8. Floods and climate: emerging perspectives for flood risk assessment and management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Merz, B.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K.; Baldi, M.; Becker, A.; Bichet, A.; Blöschl, G.; Bouwer, L.M.; Brauer, A.; Cioffi, F.; Delgado, J.M.; Gocht, M.; Guzetti, F.; Harrigan, S.; Hirschboeck, K.; Kilsby, C.; Kron, W.; Kwon, H. -H.; Lall, U.; Merz, R.; Nissen, K.; Salvatti, P.; Swierczynski, T.; Ulbrich, U.; Viglione, A.; Ward, P.J.; Weiler, M.; Wilhelm, B.; Nied, M.

    2014-01-01

    Flood estimation and flood management have traditionally been the domain of hydrologists, water resources engineers and statisticians, and disciplinary approaches abound. Dominant views have been shaped; one example is the catchment perspective: floods are formed and influenced by the interaction of

  9. Adaptation to flood risk: Results of international paired flood event studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kreibich, Heidi; Di Baldassarre, G.; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Aerts, J.C.J.H.; Apel, H.; Aronica, G.T.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K.; Bouwer, L.; Bubeck, P.; Caloiero, Tommaso; Chinh, Do. T.; Cortès, Maria; Gain, A.K.; Giampá, Vincenzo; Kuhlicke, C; Kundzewicz, Z.W.; Carmen Llasat, M; Mård, Johanna; Matczak, Piotr; Mazzoleni, Maurizio; Molinari, Daniela; Dung, N.V.; Petrucci, Olga; Schröter, Kai; Slager, Kymo; Thieken, A.H.; Ward, P.J.; Merz, B.

    2017-01-01

    As flood impacts are increasing in large parts of the world, understanding the primary drivers of changes in risk is essential for effective adaptation. To gain more knowledge on the basis of empirical case studies, we analyze eight paired floods, that is, consecutive flood events that occurred in

  10. Development of Integrated Flood Analysis System for Improving Flood Mitigation Capabilities in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moon, Young-Il; Kim, Jong-suk

    2016-04-01

    Recently, the needs of people are growing for a more safety life and secure homeland from unexpected natural disasters. Flood damages have been recorded every year and those damages are greater than the annual average of 2 trillion won since 2000 in Korea. It has been increased in casualties and property damages due to flooding caused by hydrometeorlogical extremes according to climate change. Although the importance of flooding situation is emerging rapidly, studies related to development of integrated management system for reducing floods are insufficient in Korea. In addition, it is difficult to effectively reduce floods without developing integrated operation system taking into account of sewage pipe network configuration with the river level. Since the floods result in increasing damages to infrastructure, as well as life and property, structural and non-structural measures should be urgently established in order to effectively reduce the flood. Therefore, in this study, we developed an integrated flood analysis system that systematized technology to quantify flood risk and flood forecasting for supporting synthetic decision-making through real-time monitoring and prediction on flash rain or short-term rainfall by using radar and satellite information in Korea. Keywords: Flooding, Integrated flood analysis system, Rainfall forecasting, Korea Acknowledgments This work was carried out with the support of "Cooperative Research Program for Agriculture Science & Technology Development (Project No. PJ011686022015)" Rural Development Administration, Republic of Korea

  11. Development of Probabilistic Flood Inundation Mapping For Flooding Induced by Dam Failure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, C.; Yeh, J. J. J.

    2017-12-01

    A primary function of flood inundation mapping is to forecast flood hazards and assess potential losses. However, uncertainties limit the reliability of inundation hazard assessments. Major sources of uncertainty should be taken into consideration by an optimal flood management strategy. This study focuses on the 20km reach downstream of the Shihmen Reservoir in Taiwan. A dam failure induced flood herein provides the upstream boundary conditions of flood routing. The two major sources of uncertainty that are considered in the hydraulic model and the flood inundation mapping herein are uncertainties in the dam break model and uncertainty of the roughness coefficient. The perturbance moment method is applied to a dam break model and the hydro system model to develop probabilistic flood inundation mapping. Various numbers of uncertain variables can be considered in these models and the variability of outputs can be quantified. The probabilistic flood inundation mapping for dam break induced floods can be developed with consideration of the variability of output using a commonly used HEC-RAS model. Different probabilistic flood inundation mappings are discussed and compared. Probabilistic flood inundation mappings are hoped to provide new physical insights in support of the evaluation of concerning reservoir flooded areas.

  12. “Expect More Floods In 2013”: An analysis of flood preparedness in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In 2013, the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) issued a prediction of heavy rainfall with consequent flooding in some major cities of Nigeria particularly Ibadan. In light of the country's previous flood experiences, citizens and government were promptly alerted and advised to be fully prepared for imminent floods.

  13. Applying the Flood Vulnerability Index as a Knowledge base for flood risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Balica, S-F.

    2012-01-01

    Floods are one of the most common and widely distributed natural risks to life and property worldwide. An important part of modern flood risk management is to evaluate vulnerability to floods. This evaluation can be done only by using a parametric approach. Worldwide there is a need to enhance our

  14. 44 CFR 65.14 - Remapping of areas for which local flood protection systems no longer provide base flood protection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... local flood protection systems no longer provide base flood protection. 65.14 Section 65.14 Emergency... § 65.14 Remapping of areas for which local flood protection systems no longer provide base flood... process of restoring a flood protection system that was: (i) Constructed using Federal funds; (ii...

  15. Deriving Design Flood Hydrograph Based on Conditional Distribution: A Case Study of Danjiangkou Reservoir in Hanjiang Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Changjiang Xu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Design flood hydrograph (DFH for a dam is the flood of suitable probability and magnitude adopted to ensure safety of the dam in accordance with appropriate design standards. Estimated quantiles of peak discharge and flood volumes are necessary for deriving the DFH, which are mutually correlated and need to be described by multivariate analysis methods. The joint probability distributions of peak discharge and flood volumes were established using copula functions. Then the general formulae of conditional most likely composition (CMLC and conditional expectation composition (CEC methods that consider the inherent relationship between flood peak and volumes were derived for estimating DFH. The Danjiangkou reservoir in Hanjiang basin was selected as a case study. The design values of flood volumes and 90% confidence intervals with different peak discharges were estimated by the proposed methods. The performance of CMLC and CEC methods was also compared with conventional flood frequency analysis, and the results show that CMLC method performs best for both bivariate and trivariate distributions which has the smallest relative error and root mean square error. The proposed CMLC method has strong statistical basis with unique design flood composition scheme and provides an alternative way for deriving DFH.

  16. PARTICULIARITIES OF FLOODS ON RIVERS IN THE TRANSYLVANIAN SUBCARPATHIANS AND THE NEIGHBOURING MOUNTAINOUS REGION BETWEEN TÂRNAVA MARE AND NIRAJ

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. RADULY

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available In the first part of the paper are presented the general characteristics of the high waters and floods, emphasizing that the difference is mainly related to the flood wave characteristics (duration and form and not the water volume. Then we present the geography of the study area and the main geographic characteristics which influence flood waves. We analyzed the monthly and seasonal frequency of flood waves highlighting the similarities and differences between the mountain and the neighboring areas, regarding the formation and development of floods. In the last part we analyzed statistically how many times did the areas hydrometric stations record values which were higher than the three threshold defense levels (attention, flood, danger.

  17. Zinc fertilization of flooded rice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1981-02-01

    Local scientists studied Zn fertilization of flooded rice soils in Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, the Republic of Korea, Egypt, the Philippines, Thailand and Turkey. Diagnosis of Zn deficiency was carried out for submerged rice soils. Soil maps were prepared, designating areas as low, medium and high in Zn, based on Zn extraction with DTPA and HCl solutions and on rice leaf analysis. The effectiveness of various Zn fertilizer sources and methods of application in field and greenhouse experiments was measured, using 65 Zn. The percent Zn derived from fertilizer was shown to be a much more sensitive measure of efficiency than yield or total uptake

  18. Flood warning level forecasting for ungauged catchments by means of a combined API storage concept

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lehmann, T; Holzmann, H

    2008-01-01

    The knowledge of the expected dimension of the flood peak is of major importance for security and warning services to take preventive measures. In this paper the authors want to introduce the concept of the Antecedent Precipitation Index (API) as a possible variable to estimate runoff warning classes. The aim was (a) to define API warning classes which correspond to runoff warning classes at a certain runoff gauge and (b) apply the method to ungauged basins. To consider time and state dependant rainfall losses a spatially distributed linear storage concept was applied to intercept the actual rainfall. The 3-parameter API function was fitted to several flood events at observed gauges within the district of lower Austria and lead to a set of optimized parameters. Through extreme value statistics the 1, 5 and 30 years API extremes were derived and set into correlation to the corresponding flood events. These API extremes together with the optimized API parameters were spatially interpolated and thus transferred to ungauged basins. The calculated flood events had the tendency to underestimate the smaller flood frequencies whereas the extreme flood classes could be reliably performed.

  19. Community perceptions and response to flood risks in Nyando District, Western Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hellen Nyakundi

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available In Kenya, the ability of local people to resist the impact of disasters has not been given adequate attention. A descriptive cross sectional study sought to investigate community perceptions and responses to flood risks in low and high risk areas of the Nyando District, Western Kenya. A total of 528 households, six government officials and have project managers of Community Based Organizations (CBOs and Non Governmental Organizations (NGOs were interviewed. Additionally, seven Focus Group Discussions(FGDs involving three women, two male and two teacher groups were conducted. Data were analysed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS Program. The Chi-square test was used to determine associations and di'erences between variables. In the study, 83% of the respondents were aware of Traditional Flood Knowledge (TFK and 80% acknowledged its use. Perception of the risk is influenced by several variables, most notably past experience of major floods and having survived them. Residents in the high risk areas had signfficantly higher levels of awareness and use of traditional flood knowledge. they were more aware of the nature of the flood related health risks they were exposed to and appeared better prepared for future flood risk. They were, however, more dependent on external aid. On the other hand, residents living in the low risk area reported better success with their response mechanisms.

  20. Estimation of initiating event frequency for external flood events by extreme value theorem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chowdhury, Sourajyoti; Ganguly, Rimpi; Hari, Vibha

    2017-01-01

    External flood is an important common cause initiating event in nuclear power plants (NPPs). It may potentially lead to severe core damage (SCD) by first causing the failure of the systems required for maintaining the heat sinks and then by contributing to failures of engineered systems designed to mitigate such failures. The sample NPP taken here is twin 220 MWe Indian standard pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) situated inland. A comprehensive in-house Level-1 internal event PSA for full power had already been performed. External flood assessment was further conducted in area of external hazard risk assessment in response to post-Fukushima measures taken in nuclear industries. The present paper describes the methodology to calculate initiating event (IE) frequency for external flood events for the sample inland Indian NPP. General extreme value (GEV) theory based on maximum likelihood method (MLM) and order statistics approach (OSA) is used to analyse the rainfall data for the site. Thousand-year return level and necessary return periods for extreme rainfall are evaluated. These results along with plant-specific topographical calculations quantitatively establish that external flooding resulting from upstream dam break, river flooding and heavy rainfall (flash flood) would be unlikely for the sample NPP in consideration.

  1. Regional Risk Evaluation of Flood Disasters for the Trunk-Highway in Shaanxi, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong-Liang Qi

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Due to the complicated environment there are various types of highway disasters in Shaanxi Province (China. The damages caused are severe, losses are heavy, and have rapidly increased over the years, especially those caused by flood disasters along the rivers in mountainous areas. Therefore, research on risk evaluations, which play important roles in the prevention and mitigation of highway disasters are very important. An evaluation model was established based on the superposition theory of regional influencing factors to highway flood disasters. Based on the formation mechanism and influencing factors of highway flood disasters, the main influencing factors were selected. These factors include rainstorms, terrain slopes, soil types, vegetation coverage and regional river density, which are based on evaluation indexes from climate conditions and underlying surface of the basin. A regional risk evaluation of highway flood disasters in Shaanxi was established using GIS. The risk index was divided into five levels using statistical methods, in accordance with the regional characteristics of highway flood disasters. Considering the difference in upfront investments, road grade, etc, between expressways and trunk-highways in China, a regional risk evaluation of trunk-highway flood disasters was completed. The evaluation results indicate that the risk evaluation is consistent with the actual situation.

  2. Policy learning for flood mitigation: a longitudinal assessment of the community rating system in Florida.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brody, Samuel D; Zahran, Sammy; Highfield, Wesley E; Bernhardt, Sarah P; Vedlitz, Arnold

    2009-06-01

    Floods continue to inflict the most damage upon human communities among all natural hazards in the United States. Because localized flooding tends to be spatially repetitive over time, local decisionmakers often have an opportunity to learn from previous events and make proactive policy adjustments to reduce the adverse effects of a subsequent storm. Despite the importance of understanding the degree to which local jurisdictions learn from flood risks and under what circumstances, little if any empirical, longitudinal research has been conducted along these lines. This article addresses the research gap by examining the change in local flood mitigation policies in Florida from 1999 to 2005. We track 18 different mitigation activities organized into four series of activities under the Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA) Community Rating System (CRS) for every local jurisdiction in Florida participating in the FEMA program on a yearly time step. We then identify the major factors contributing to policy changes based on CRS scores over the seven-year study period. Using multivariate statistical models to analyze both natural and social science data, we isolate the effects of several variables categorized into the following groups: hydrologic conditions, flood disaster history, socioeconomic and human capital controls. Results indicate that local jurisdictions do in fact learn from histories of flood risk and this process is expedited under specific conditions.

  3. Flood Modeling Using a Synthesis of Multi-Platform LiDAR Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryan M. Csontos

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available This study examined the utility of a high resolution ground-based (mobile and terrestrial Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR dataset (0.2 m point-spacing supplemented with a coarser resolution airborne LiDAR dataset (5 m point-spacing for use in a flood inundation analysis. The techniques for combining multi-platform LiDAR data into a composite dataset in the form of a triangulated irregular network (TIN are described, and quantitative comparisons were made to a TIN generated solely from the airborne LiDAR dataset. For example, a maximum land surface elevation difference of 1.677 m and a mean difference of 0.178 m were calculated between the datasets based on sample points. Utilizing the composite and airborne LiDAR-derived TINs, a flood inundation comparison was completed using a one-dimensional steady flow hydraulic modeling analysis. Quantitative comparisons of the water surface profiles and depth grids indicated an underestimation of flooding extent, volume, and maximum flood height using the airborne LiDAR data alone. A 35% increase in maximum flood height was observed using the composite LiDAR dataset. In addition, the extents of the water surface profiles generated from the two datasets were found to be statistically significantly different. The urban and mountainous characteristics of the study area as well as the density (file size of the high resolution ground based LiDAR data presented both opportunities and challenges for flood modeling analyses.

  4. Regional Risk Evaluation of Flood Disasters for the Trunk-Highway in Shaanxi, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Hong-Liang; Tian, Wei-Ping; Li, Jia-Chun

    2015-10-29

    Due to the complicated environment there are various types of highway disasters in Shaanxi Province (China). The damages caused are severe, losses are heavy, and have rapidly increased over the years, especially those caused by flood disasters along the rivers in mountainous areas. Therefore, research on risk evaluations, which play important roles in the prevention and mitigation of highway disasters are very important. An evaluation model was established based on the superposition theory of regional influencing factors to highway flood disasters. Based on the formation mechanism and influencing factors of highway flood disasters, the main influencing factors were selected. These factors include rainstorms, terrain slopes, soil types, vegetation coverage and regional river density, which are based on evaluation indexes from climate conditions and underlying surface of the basin. A regional risk evaluation of highway flood disasters in Shaanxi was established using GIS. The risk index was divided into five levels using statistical methods, in accordance with the regional characteristics of highway flood disasters. Considering the difference in upfront investments, road grade, etc, between expressways and trunk-highways in China, a regional risk evaluation of trunk-highway flood disasters was completed. The evaluation results indicate that the risk evaluation is consistent with the actual situation.

  5. Flood protection as a key-component of the environmental restoration of Canal del Dique, Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sokolewicz Marius

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Canal del Dique is a man-made distributary of Rio Magdalena. After its widening in 1980’s environmental degradation caused by abundant sediment load and changes to hydrology took a catastrophic form. In 2010, the Canal’s dike breached and 35,000 ha of land were flooded. In 2013 a huge effort to restore the environment in the Canal del Dique system and to flood-proof the villages was started. An integrated approach was adopted to provide an optimal solution for flood control, environment, fresh water supply and navigation. In order to prepare restoration plans, an extensive hydrologic and hydraulic assessment was carried out. 1D, 2D and 3D numerical models were developed to answer different questions, to evaluate different alternatives and to enable selection of optimal solutions. To assess the flood risk, a hindcast of 2010 flood was carried out. A solution was designed in which the inlet of water from the Magdalena River is regulated by a control structure, managed by an automated system based on SCADA and Delft-FEWS flood forecasting software and advanced statistics.

  6. Downscaling Global Weather Forecast Outputs Using ANN for Flood Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nam Do Hoai

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Downscaling global weather prediction model outputs to individual locations or local scales is a common practice for operational weather forecast in order to correct the model outputs at subgrid scales. This paper presents an empirical-statistical downscaling method for precipitation prediction which uses a feed-forward multilayer perceptron (MLP neural network. The MLP architecture was optimized by considering physical bases that determine the circulation of atmospheric variables. Downscaled precipitation was then used as inputs to the super tank model (runoff model for flood prediction. The case study was conducted for the Thu Bon River Basin, located in Central Vietnam. Study results showed that the precipitation predicted by MLP outperformed that directly obtained from model outputs or downscaled using multiple linear regression. Consequently, flood forecast based on the downscaled precipitation was very encouraging. It has demonstrated as a robust technology, simple to implement, reliable, and universal application for flood prediction through the combination of downscaling model and super tank model.

  7. Modeling Waves and Coastal Flooding along the Connecticut Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cifuentes-Lorenzen, A.; Howard-Strobel, M. M.; Fake, T.; McCardell, G.; O'Donnell, J.; Asthita, M.

    2015-12-01

    We have used a hydrodynamic- wave coupled numerical model (FVCOM-SWAVE) to simulate flooding at the Connecticut coastline during severe storms. The model employed a one-way nesting scheme and an unstructured grid. The parent domain spanned most of the southern New England shelf and the fine resolution grid covered Long Island Sound (LIS) and extended across the Connecticut coast to the 10m elevation contour. The model results for sea level, current and wave statistics from the parent grid have been tested with data from several field campaigns at different locations spanning the western, central and eastern portions of LIS. Waves are fetch limited and improvements to the model-data comparison required modifications to spectral coefficients in the wave model. Finally, the nested results were validated with two field campaigns in shallow water environments (i.e. New Haven and Old Saybrook). To assess the spatial variability of storm wave characteristics the domain was forced with the hindcast winds obtained from meteorological models (NAM and WRF) for 13 severe weather events that affected LIS in the past 15 years. We have also forced the system with a simulation of Superstorm Sandy in a warmer climate to assess the impact a climate change on the character of flooding. The nested grid is currently being used to map flooding risks under severe weather events including the effects of precipitation on river flow and discharge.

  8. Analysis of flood-magnitude and flood-frequency data for streamflow-gaging stations in the Delaware and North Branch Susquehanna River Basins in Pennsylvania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roland, Mark A.; Stuckey, Marla H.

    2007-01-01

    The Delaware and North Branch Susquehanna River Basins in Pennsylvania experienced severe flooding as a result of intense rainfall during June 2006. The height of the flood waters on the rivers and tributaries approached or exceeded the peak of record at many locations. Updated flood-magnitude and flood-frequency data for streamflow-gaging stations on tributaries in the Delaware and North Branch Susquehanna River Basins were analyzed using data through the 2006 water year to determine if there were any major differences in the flood-discharge data. Flood frequencies for return intervals of 2, 5, 10, 50, 100, and 500 years (Q2, Q5, Q10, Q50, Q100, and Q500) were determined from annual maximum series (AMS) data from continuous-record gaging stations (stations) and were compared to flood discharges obtained from previously published Flood Insurance Studies (FIS) and to flood frequencies using partial-duration series (PDS) data. A Wilcoxon signed-rank test was performed to determine any statistically significant differences between flood frequencies computed from updated AMS station data and those obtained from FIS. Percentage differences between flood frequencies computed from updated AMS station data and those obtained from FIS also were determined for the 10, 50, 100, and 500 return intervals. A Mann-Kendall trend test was performed to determine statistically significant trends in the updated AMS peak-flow data for the period of record at the 41 stations. In addition to AMS station data, PDS data were used to determine flood-frequency discharges. The AMS and PDS flood-frequency data were compared to determine any differences between the two data sets. An analysis also was performed on AMS-derived flood frequencies for four stations to evaluate the possible effects of flood-control reservoirs on peak flows. Additionally, flood frequencies for three stations were evaluated to determine possible effects of urbanization on peak flows. The results of the Wilcoxon signed

  9. Vulnerability of United States Bridges to Potential Increases in Flooding from Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    This study assesses the potential impacts of increased river flooding from climate change on bridges in the continental United States. Daily precipitation statistics from four climate models and three greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios (A2, A1B, and B1) are used to capture ...

  10. MQSA National Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Standards Act and Program MQSA Insights MQSA National Statistics Share Tweet Linkedin Pin it More sharing options ... but should level off with time. Archived Scorecard Statistics 2018 Scorecard Statistics 2017 Scorecard Statistics 2016 Scorecard ...

  11. State Transportation Statistics 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-15

    The Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) presents State Transportation Statistics 2014, a statistical profile of transportation in the 50 states and the District of Columbia. This is the 12th annual edition of State Transportation Statistics, a ...

  12. An assessment of flood vulnerability on physical development along ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Mohammad

    Key words: Drainage channel, flood, risk assessment, vulnerability. INTRODUCTION ... hydraulic and other control structures.” The effects of floods are always ..... An application of Geographic Information System in mapping flood risk zones in ...

  13. Truth or Consequences Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — This vector dataset depicts the 1% annual flood boundary (otherwise known as special flood hazard area or 100 year flood boundary) for its specified area. The data...

  14. Hydrochemical aspects of the Aue pit flooding

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyer, J.; Jenk, U.; Schuppan, W.; Knappik, R.

    1998-01-01

    WISMUT is conducting controlled flooding of underground mines at the Schlema-Alberoda and Poehla sites. Flooding of the Poehla mine lasted from January 1992 through September 1995. Flooding at the Niederschlema-Alberoda site began in July 1990 and will continue to approximately 2002. In mid-1998 the flood level had reached the - 420 m level which is about 1,400 m above the lowest mine level. Only ground waters with low mineral and pollutant content are used for flooding purposes. Typically, the flooding process results in elevated levels of mineral salts and of uranium, radium, arsenic, iron, and manganese in flooding waters. However, the mobilised part of these contaminants represents only a small fraction of potential concentrations contained in the surrounding rock. Geochemical and hydrochemical conditions at both mines are characterised by the presence of carbonate buffers and by neutral pH and intermediate to low Eh. Decrease due to oxidation of sulphides in the long term is unlikely. Environmentally relevant metals in flooding waters may be dissolved, colloidal, or suspended solids with uranium present as uranyl carbonate complexes. Intensity of mobilisation is primarily a function of kinetic processes. Post flooding conditions at the Poehla subsite exhibit specific hydrochemical phenomena such as extremely reduced SO 4 concentrations and an increase in Ra concentrations over time. Continued flood monitoring will provide the basis for more in-depth interpretation and prognosis of contaminant mobilisation. Current investigations focus on technically feasible in situ control of mine flooding at the Schlema-Alberoda site to reduce contaminant mobilisation. At both sites water treatment plants are either on stream or under construction. (orig.)

  15. Flood mapping with multitemporal MODIS data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Son, Nguyen-Thanh; Chen, Chi-Farn; Chen, Cheng-Ru

    2014-05-01

    Flood is one of the most devastating and frequent disasters resulting in loss of human life and serve damage to infrastructure and agricultural production. Flood is phenomenal in the Mekong River Delta (MRD), Vietnam. It annually lasts from July to November. Information on spatiotemporal flood dynamics is thus important for planners to devise successful strategies for flood monitoring and mitigation of its negative effects. The main objective of this study is to develop an approach for weekly mapping flood dynamics with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data in MRD using the water fraction model (WFM). The data processed for 2009 comprises three main steps: (1) data pre-processing to construct smooth time series of the difference in the values (DVLE) between land surface water index (LSWI) and enhanced vegetation index (EVI) using the empirical mode decomposition (EMD), (2) flood derivation using WFM, and (3) accuracy assessment. The mapping results were compared with the ground reference data, which were constructed from Envisat Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) data. As several error sources, including mixed-pixel problems and low-resolution bias between the mapping results and ground reference data, could lower the level of classification accuracy, the comparisons indicated satisfactory results with the overall accuracy of 80.5% and Kappa coefficient of 0.61, respectively. These results were reaffirmed by a close correlation between the MODIS-derived flood area and that of the ground reference map at the provincial level, with the correlation coefficients (R2) of 0.93. Considering the importance of remote sensing for monitoring floods and mitigating the damage caused by floods to crops and infrastructure, this study eventually leads to the realization of the value of using time-series MODIS DVLE data for weekly flood monitoring in MRD with the aid of EMD and WFM. Such an approach that could provide quantitative information on

  16. Floods of Selected Streams in Arkansas, Spring 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funkhouser, Jaysson E.; Eng, Ken

    2009-01-01

    States in cooperation with other Federal, State, and local government agencies. In Arkansas, the major supporters of the streamflow-gaging network are the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Arkansas Natural Resources Commission, Arkansas Department of Environmental Quality, and Arkansas Geological Survey. Many other Federal, State, and local government entities provide additional support for streamflow-gaging stations. It is the combined support of the USGS and all funding partners that make it possible to maintain an adequate streamflow-gaging network in Arkansas. Data collected over the years at streamflow-gaging stations can be used to characterize the relative magnitude of flood events and their statistical frequency of occurrence. These analyses provide water-resource managers with accurate and reliable hydrologic information based on present and historical flow conditions. Continued collection of streamflow data, with consideration of changes in land use, agricultural practices, and climate change, will help scientists to more accurately characterize the magnitude of extreme floods in the future.

  17. Integration of climate change in flood prediction: application to the Somme river (France)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinault, J.-L.; Amraoui, N.; Noyer, M.-L.

    2003-04-01

    Exceptional floods that have occurred for the last two years in western and central Europe were very unlikely. The concomitance of such rare events shows that they might be imputable to climate change. The statistical analysis of long rainfall series confirms that both the cumulated annual height and the temporal variability have increased for the last decade. This paper is devoted to the analysis of climate change impact on flood prediction applied to the Somme river. The exceptional pluviometry that occurred from October 2000 to April 2001, about the double of the mean value, entailed catastrophic flood between the high Somme and Abbeville. The flow reached a peak at the beginning of May 2001, involving damages in numerous habitations and communication routes, and economical activity of the region had been flood-bound for more than 2 months. The flood caught unaware the population and caused deep traumas in France since it was the first time such a sudden event was recognized as resulting from groundwater discharge. Mechanisms of flood generation were studied tightly in order to predict the behavior of the Somme catchment and other urbanized basins when the pluviometry is exceptional in winter or in spring, which occurs more and more frequently in the northern part of Europe. The contribution of groundwater in surface water flow was calculated by inverse modeling from piezometers that are representative of aquifers in valleys. They were found on the slopes and near the edge of plateaus in order to characterize the drainage processes of the watertable to the surface water network. For flood prediction, a stochastic process is used, consisting in the generation of both rainfall and PET time series. The precipitation generator uses Markov chain Monte Carlo and simulated annealing from the Hastings -- Metropolis algorithm. Coupling of rainfall and PET generators with transfer enables a new evaluation of the probability of occurrence of floods, taking into account

  18. Uncertainty Analysis of A Flood Risk Mapping Procedure Applied In Urban Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krause, J.; Uhrich, S.; Bormann, H.; Diekkrüger, B.

    In the framework of IRMA-Sponge program the presented study was part of the joint research project FRHYMAP (flood risk and hydrological mapping). A simple con- ceptual flooding model (FLOODMAP) has been developed to simulate flooded areas besides rivers within cities. FLOODMAP requires a minimum of input data (digital el- evation model (DEM), river line, water level plain) and parameters and calculates the flood extent as well as the spatial distribution of flood depths. of course the simulated model results are affected by errors and uncertainties. Possible sources of uncertain- ties are the model structure, model parameters and input data. Thus after the model validation (comparison of simulated water to observed extent, taken from airborne pictures) the uncertainty of the essential input data set (digital elevation model) was analysed. Monte Carlo simulations were performed to assess the effect of uncertain- ties concerning the statistics of DEM quality and to derive flooding probabilities from the set of simulations. The questions concerning a minimum resolution of a DEM re- quired for flood simulation and concerning the best aggregation procedure of a given DEM was answered by comparing the results obtained using all available standard GIS aggregation procedures. Seven different aggregation procedures were applied to high resolution DEMs (1-2m) in three cities (Bonn, Cologne, Luxembourg). Basing on this analysis the effect of 'uncertain' DEM data was estimated and compared with other sources of uncertainties. Especially socio-economic information and monetary transfer functions required for a damage risk analysis show a high uncertainty. There- fore this study helps to analyse the weak points of the flood risk and damage risk assessment procedure.

  19. Flood-risk mapping: contributions towards an enhanced assessment of extreme events and associated risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Büchele

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Currently, a shift from classical flood protection as engineering task towards integrated flood risk management concepts can be observed. In this context, a more consequent consideration of extreme events which exceed the design event of flood protection structures and failure scenarios such as dike breaches have to be investigated. Therefore, this study aims to enhance existing methods for hazard and risk assessment for extreme events and is divided into three parts. In the first part, a regionalization approach for flood peak discharges was further developed and substantiated, especially regarding recurrence intervals of 200 to 10 000 years and a large number of small ungauged catchments. Model comparisons show that more confidence in such flood estimates for ungauged areas and very long recurrence intervals may be given as implied by statistical analysis alone. The hydraulic simulation in the second part is oriented towards hazard mapping and risk analyses covering the whole spectrum of relevant flood events. As the hydrodynamic simulation is directly coupled with a GIS, the results can be easily processed as local inundation depths for spatial risk analyses. For this, a new GIS-based software tool was developed, being presented in the third part, which enables estimations of the direct flood damage to single buildings or areas based on different established stage-damage functions. Furthermore, a new multifactorial approach for damage estimation is presented, aiming at the improvement of damage estimation on local scale by considering factors like building quality, contamination and precautionary measures. The methods and results from this study form the base for comprehensive risk analyses and flood management strategies.

  20. Flood frequency matters: Why climate change degrades deep-water quality of peri-alpine lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fink, Gabriel; Wessels, Martin; Wüest, Alfred

    2016-09-01

    Sediment-laden riverine floods transport large quantities of dissolved oxygen into the receiving deep layers of lakes. Hence, the water quality of deep lakes is strongly influenced by the frequency of riverine floods. Although flood frequency reflects climate conditions, the effects of climate variability on the water quality of deep lakes is largely unknown. We quantified the effects of climate variability on the potential shifts in the flood regime of the Alpine Rhine, the main catchment of Lake Constance, and determined the intrusion depths of riverine density-driven underflows and the subsequent effects on water exchange rates in the lake. A simplified hydrodynamic underflow model was developed and validated with observed river inflow and underflow events. The model was implemented to estimate underflow statistics for different river inflow scenarios. Using this approach, we integrated present and possible future flood frequencies to underflow occurrences and intrusion depths in Lake Constance. The results indicate that more floods will increase the number of underflows and the intensity of deep-water renewal - and consequently will cause higher deep-water dissolved oxygen concentrations. Vice versa, fewer floods weaken deep-water renewal and lead to lower deep-water dissolved oxygen concentrations. Meanwhile, a change from glacial nival regime (present) to a nival pluvial regime (future) is expected to decrease deep-water renewal. While flood frequencies are not expected to change noticeably for the next decades, it is most likely that increased winter discharge and decreased summer discharge will reduce the number of deep density-driven underflows by 10% and favour shallower riverine interflows in the upper hypolimnion. The renewal in the deepest layers is expected to be reduced by nearly 27%. This study underlines potential consequences of climate change on the occurrence of deep river underflows and water residence times in deep lakes.

  1. Potential increase in floods in California's Sierra Nevada under future climate projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, T.; Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Hidalgo, H.G.

    2011-01-01

    California's mountainous topography, exposure to occasional heavily moisture-laden storm systems, and varied communities and infrastructures in low lying areas make it highly vulnerable to floods. An important question facing the state-in terms of protecting the public and formulating water management responses to climate change-is "how might future climate changes affect flood characteristics in California?" To help address this, we simulate floods on the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada Mountains, the state's primary catchment, based on downscaled daily precipitation and temperature projections from three General Circulation Models (GCMs). These climate projections are fed into the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, and the VIC-simulated streamflows and hydrologic conditions, from historical and from projected climate change runs, allow us to evaluate possible changes in annual maximum 3-day flood magnitudes and frequencies of floods. By the end of the 21st Century, all projections yield larger-than-historical floods, for both the Northern Sierra Nevada (NSN) and for the Southern Sierra Nevada (SSN). The increases in flood magnitude are statistically significant (at p models, while under the third scenario, GFDL CM2. 1, frequencies remain constant or decline slightly, owing to an overall drying trend. These increases appear to derive jointly from increases in heavy precipitation amount, storm frequencies, and days with more precipitation falling as rain and less as snow. Increases in antecedent winter soil moisture also play a role in some areas. Thus, a complex, as-yet unpredictable interplay of several different climatic influences threatens to cause increased flood hazards in California's complex western Sierra landscapes. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  2. On the link between extreme floods and excess monsoon epochs in South Asia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kale, Vishwas [University of Pune, Department of Geography, Pune (India)

    2012-09-15

    This paper provides a synoptic view of extreme monsoon floods on all the nine large rivers of South Asia and their association with the excess (above-normal) monsoon rainfall periods. Annual maximum flood series for 18 gauging stations spread over four countries (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal) and long-term monsoon rainfall data were analyzed to ascertain whether the extreme floods were clustered in time and whether they coincided with multi-decade excess monsoon rainfall epochs at the basin level. Simple techniques, such as the Cramer's t-test, regression and Mann-Kendall (MK) tests and Hurst method were used to evaluate the trends and patterns of the flood and rainfall series. MK test reveals absence of any long-term tendency in all the series. However, the Cramer's t test and Hurst-Mandelbrot rescaled range statistic provide evidence that both rainfall and flood time series are persistent. Using the Cramer's t-test the excess monsoon epochs for each basin were identified. The excess monsoon periods for different basins were found to be highly asynchronous with respect to duration as well as the beginning and end. Three main conclusions readily emerge from the analyses. Extreme floods (>90th percentile) in South Asia show a tendency to cluster in time. About three-fourth of the extreme floods have occurred during the excess monsoon periods between {proportional_to}1840 and 2000 AD, implying a noteworthy link between the two. The frequency of large floods was higher during the post-1940 period in general and during three decades (1940s, 1950s and 1980s) in particular. (orig.)

  3. A long-term, continuous simulation approach for large-scale flood risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falter, Daniela; Schröter, Kai; Viet Dung, Nguyen; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa; Kreibich, Heidi; Apel, Heiko; Merz, Bruno

    2014-05-01

    The Regional Flood Model (RFM) is a process based model cascade developed for flood risk assessments of large-scale basins. RFM consists of four model parts: the rainfall-runoff model SWIM, a 1D channel routing model, a 2D hinterland inundation model and the flood loss estimation model for residential buildings FLEMOps+r. The model cascade was recently undertaken a proof-of-concept study at the Elbe catchment (Germany) to demonstrate that flood risk assessments, based on a continuous simulation approach, including rainfall-runoff, hydrodynamic and damage estimation models, are feasible for large catchments. The results of this study indicated that uncertainties are significant, especially for hydrodynamic simulations. This was basically a consequence of low data quality and disregarding dike breaches. Therefore, RFM was applied with a refined hydraulic model setup for the Elbe tributary Mulde. The study area Mulde catchment comprises about 6,000 km2 and 380 river-km. The inclusion of more reliable information on overbank cross-sections and dikes considerably improved the results. For the application of RFM for flood risk assessments, long-term climate input data is needed to drive the model chain. This model input was provided by a multi-site, multi-variate weather generator that produces sets of synthetic meteorological data reproducing the current climate statistics. The data set comprises 100 realizations of 100 years of meteorological data. With the proposed continuous simulation approach of RFM, we simulated a virtual period of 10,000 years covering the entire flood risk chain including hydrological, 1D/2D hydrodynamic and flood damage estimation models. This provided a record of around 2.000 inundation events affecting the study area with spatially detailed information on inundation depths and damage to residential buildings on a resolution of 100 m. This serves as basis for a spatially consistent, flood risk assessment for the Mulde catchment presented in

  4. Flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... and soil contamination from burial. Typical methods of recycling and solid waste disposal in sanitary landfills often ... rid of standing water in rain gutters, old tires, buckets, plastic covers, toys, pools, or any other ...

  5. Quasi-continuous stochastic simulation framework for flood modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moustakis, Yiannis; Kossieris, Panagiotis; Tsoukalas, Ioannis; Efstratiadis, Andreas

    2017-04-01

    Typically, flood modelling in the context of everyday engineering practices is addressed through event-based deterministic tools, e.g., the well-known SCS-CN method. A major shortcoming of such approaches is the ignorance of uncertainty, which is associated with the variability of soil moisture conditions and the variability of rainfall during the storm event.In event-based modeling, the sole expression of uncertainty is the return period of the design storm, which is assumed to represent the acceptable risk of all output quantities (flood volume, peak discharge, etc.). On the other hand, the varying antecedent soil moisture conditions across the basin are represented by means of scenarios (e.g., the three AMC types by SCS),while the temporal distribution of rainfall is represented through standard deterministic patterns (e.g., the alternative blocks method). In order to address these major inconsistencies,simultaneously preserving the simplicity and parsimony of the SCS-CN method, we have developed a quasi-continuous stochastic simulation approach, comprising the following steps: (1) generation of synthetic daily rainfall time series; (2) update of potential maximum soil moisture retention, on the basis of accumulated five-day rainfall; (3) estimation of daily runoff through the SCS-CN formula, using as inputs the daily rainfall and the updated value of soil moisture retention;(4) selection of extreme events and application of the standard SCS-CN procedure for each specific event, on the basis of synthetic rainfall.This scheme requires the use of two stochastic modelling components, namely the CastaliaR model, for the generation of synthetic daily data, and the HyetosMinute model, for the disaggregation of daily rainfall to finer temporal scales. Outcomes of this approach are a large number of synthetic flood events, allowing for expressing the design variables in statistical terms and thus properly evaluating the flood risk.

  6. Concurrency and climate change signal in Scottish flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harding, A. E.; Butler, A.; Goody, N.; Bertram, D.; Baggaley, N.; Tett, S. F.

    2013-12-01

    The Scottish Environment Protection Agency maintains a database of river gauging stations and intensity rain-gauges with a 3-hourly resolution that covers the majority of Scotland. Both SEPA and a number of other Scottish agencies are invested in climate change attribution in this data set. SEPA's main interest lies in trend detection and changes in river level (';stage') data throughout Scotland. Emergency response teams are more concerned with the concurrency of multiple flood events that might stretch their ability to respond effectively. Unfortunately, much of the rainfall signal within SEPA's river-gauge data is altered by land use changes, modified by artificial interventions such as reservoirs, compromised by tidal flow, or obscured by measurement issues. Data reduction techniques, indices of extreme rainfall, and hydrology-driven discrimination have been employed to produce a reduced set of flood-relevant information for 24-hour ';flashy' events. Links between this set and North Atlantic circulation have been explored, as have patterns of mutual occurrence across Scotland and location- and seasonally- dependent trends through time. Both frontal systems and summer convective storms have been characterised in terms of subsequent flood-inducing flow regime, their changing behaviour over the last fifty years, and their spatial extent. This is the first stage of an ongoing project that will intelligently expand to take less robust river and rain-gauge stations into account through statistical analysis and hydrological modelling. It is also the first study of its type to analyse a nation-scale dataset of both rainfall and river flow from multiple catchments for flood event concurrency. As rainfall events are expected to intensify across much of Europe, this kind of research is likely to have an increasing degree of relevance for policy-makers. This project demonstrates that productive, policy-relevant and mutually-rewarding partnerships are already underway.

  7. Flood early warning system: sensors and internet

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pengel, B.E.; Krzhizhanovskaya, V.V.; Melnikova, N.B.; Shirshov, G.S.; Koelewijn, A.R.; Pyayt, A.L.; Mokhov, I.I.; Chavoshian, A.; Takeuchi, K.

    2013-01-01

    The UrbanFlood early warning system (EWS) is designed to monitor data from very large sensornetworks in flood defences such as embankments, dikes, levees, and dams. The EWS, based on the internet, uses real-time sensor information and Artificial Intelligence (AI) to immediately calculate the

  8. Stakeholder initiatives in flood risk management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Edelenbos, Jurian; Buuren, Van Arwin; Roth, Dik; Winnubst, Madelinde

    2017-01-01

    In recent years stakeholder participation has become a popular topic in flood management. Little is known about how and under which circumstances local stakeholders initiate and develop successful flood management strategies and how governmental actors respond to them. Drawing on theories of

  9. 76 FR 58436 - Proposed Flood Elevation Determinations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-21

    ... +725 feet upstream of the U.S. Route 50 West exit ramp. Dickerson Creek Tributary 1......... At the... Flooding Approximately 1,025 None 2 Hawaii County. feet west of the intersection of Waikoloa Beach Drive... intersection of West Kawailani Street and Launa Street. Shallow Flooding Approximately 3.6 miles None 1 Hawaii...

  10. Survey of September 1987 Natal floods

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Badenhorst, P

    1989-01-01

    Full Text Available During the September 1987 floods in Natal various organisations collaborated by observing the effects of the floods. The efforts of the CSIR in Stellenbosch and Durban, and the Geology Departments of the Universities of Natal and Port Elizabeth were...

  11. Flooding Capability for River-based Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Curtis L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Prescott, Steven [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Ryan, Emerald [Idaho State Univ., Pocatello, ID (United States); Calhoun, Donna [Boise State Univ., ID (United States); Sampath, Ramprasad [Centroid Labs., Los Angeles, CA (United States); Anderson, S. Danielle [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Casteneda, Cody [Boise State Univ., ID (United States)

    2015-10-01

    This report describes the initial investigation into modeling and simulation tools for application of riverine flooding representation as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluations. The report provides examples of different flooding conditions and scenarios that could impact river and watershed systems. Both 2D and 3D modeling approaches are described.

  12. Unstructured mesh adaptivity for urban flooding modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, R.; Fang, F.; Salinas, P.; Pain, C. C.

    2018-05-01

    Over the past few decades, urban floods have been gaining more attention due to their increase in frequency. To provide reliable flooding predictions in urban areas, various numerical models have been developed to perform high-resolution flood simulations. However, the use of high-resolution meshes across the whole computational domain causes a high computational burden. In this paper, a 2D control-volume and finite-element flood model using adaptive unstructured mesh technology has been developed. This adaptive unstructured mesh technique enables meshes to be adapted optimally in time and space in response to the evolving flow features, thus providing sufficient mesh resolution where and when it is required. It has the advantage of capturing the details of local flows and wetting and drying front while reducing the computational cost. Complex topographic features are represented accurately during the flooding process. For example, the high-resolution meshes around the buildings and steep regions are placed when the flooding water reaches these regions. In this work a flooding event that happened in 2002 in Glasgow, Scotland, United Kingdom has been simulated to demonstrate the capability of the adaptive unstructured mesh flooding model. The simulations have been performed using both fixed and adaptive unstructured meshes, and then results have been compared with those published 2D and 3D results. The presented method shows that the 2D adaptive mesh model provides accurate results while having a low computational cost.

  13. 13 CFR 120.170 - Flood insurance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Flood insurance. 120.170 Section 120.170 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS LOANS Policies Applying to All Business Loans Requirements Imposed Under Other Laws and Orders § 120.170 Flood insurance...

  14. Flooding and its Effect on Trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephen Bratkovich; Lisa Burban; Steven Katovich; Craig Locey; Jill Pokorny; Richard Wiest

    1993-01-01

    The 1993 floods along the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers and their tributaries have caused tremendous losses in terms of human life, homes, businesses and crop production. Bottomland areas have been under water for many weeks. Landowners, homeowners, foresters, park managers, and others are concerned about the long-term effect of the flooding on the forests of the...

  15. Freight economic vulnerabilities due to flooding events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-12-01

    Extreme weather events, and flooding in particular, have been occurring more often and with increased severity over the past decade, and there is reason to expect this trend will continue in the future due to a changing climate. Flooding events can u...

  16. Managing flood risks in the Mekong Delta

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoang, Long Phi; Biesbroek, Robbert; Tri, Van Pham Dang; Kummu, Matti; Vliet, van Michelle T.H.; Leemans, Rik; Kabat, Pavel; Ludwig, Fulco

    2018-01-01

    Climate change and accelerating socioeconomic developments increasingly challenge flood-risk management in the Vietnamese Mekong River Delta—a typical large, economically dynamic and highly vulnerable delta. This study identifies and addresses the emerging challenges for flood-risk management.

  17. Assessing infrastructure vulnerability to major floods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jenssen, Lars

    1998-12-31

    This thesis proposes a method for assessing the direct effects of serious floods on a physical infrastructure or utility. This method should be useful in contingency planning and in the design of structures likely to be damaged by flooding. A review is given of (1) methods of floodplain management and strategies for mitigating floods, (2) methods of risk analysis that will become increasingly important in flood management, (3) methods for hydraulic computations, (4) a variety of scour assessment methods and (5) applications of geographic information systems (GIS) to the analysis of flood vulnerability. Three computer codes were developed: CULVCAP computes the headwater level for circular and box culverts, SCOUR for assessing riprap stability and scour depths, and FASTFLOOD prepares input rainfall series and input files for the rainfall-runoff model used in the case study. A road system in central Norway was chosen to study how to analyse the flood vulnerability of an infrastructure. Finally, the thesis proposes a method for analysing the flood vulnerability of physical infrastructure. The method involves a general stage that will provide data on which parts of the infrastructure are potentially vulnerable to flooding and how to analyse them, and a specific stage which is concerned with analysing one particular kind of physical infrastructure in a study area. 123 refs., 59 figs., 17 tabs= .

  18. 77 FR 46994 - Proposed Flood Elevation Determinations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-07

    ..., it addresses the following flooding sources: Jones Bayou, Mississippi River, and Porter Bayou. DATES... Incorporated Areas'' addressed the following flooding sources: Jones Bayou, Mississippi River, and Porter Bayou.... Approximately 8.1 miles None +162 upstream of the Arkansas River confluence. Porter Bayou Approximately 0.8 mile...

  19. Impact of stream restoration on flood waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sholtes, J.; Doyle, M.

    2008-12-01

    Restoration of channelized or incised streams has the potential to reduce downstream flooding via storing and dissipating the energy of flood waves. Restoration design elements such as restoring meanders, reducing slope, restoring floodplain connectivity, re-introducing in-channel woody debris, and re-vegetating banks and the floodplain have the capacity to attenuate flood waves via energy dissipation and channel and floodplain storage. Flood discharge hydrographs measured up and downstream of several restored reaches of varying stream order and located in both urban and rural catchments are coupled with direct measurements of stream roughness at various stages to directly measure changes to peak discharge, flood wave celerity, and dispersion. A one-dimensional unsteady flow routing model, HEC-RAS, is calibrated and used to compare attenuation characteristics between pre and post restoration conditions. Modeled sensitivity results indicate that a restoration project placed on a smaller order stream demonstrates the highest relative reduction in peak discharge of routed flood waves compared to one of equal length on a higher order stream. Reductions in bed slope, extensions in channel length, and increases in channel and floodplain roughness follow restoration placement with the watershed in relative importance. By better understanding how design, scale, and location of restored reaches within a catchment hydraulically impact flood flows, this study contributes both to restoration design and site decision making. It also quantifies the effect of reach scale stream restoration on flood wave attenuation.

  20. Flood risk management in Flanders: from flood risk objectives to appropriate measures through state assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Verbeke Sven

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In compliance with the EU Flood Directive to reduce flood risk, flood risk management objectives are indispensable for the delineation of necessary measures. In Flanders, flood risk management objectives are part of the environmental objectives which are judicially integrated by the Decree on Integrated Water Policy. Appropriate objectives were derived by supporting studies and extensive consultation on a local, regional and policy level. Under a general flood risk objective sub-objectives are formulated for different aspects: water management and safety, shipping, ecology, and water supply. By developing a risk matrix, it is possible to assess the current state of flood risk and to judge where action is needed to decrease the risk. Three different states of flood risk are distinguished: a acceptable risk, where no action is needed, b intermediate risk where the risk should be reduced by cost efficient actions, and c unacceptable risk, where action is necessary. For each particular aspect, the severity of the consequences of flooding is assessed by quantifiable indicators, such as economic risk, people at risk and ecological flood tolerance. The framework also allows evaluating the effects of the implemented measures and the autonomous development such as climate change and land use change. This approach gives a quantifiable assessment of state, and enables a prioritization of flood risk measures for the reduction of flood risk in a cost efficient and sustainable way.

  1. Challenges estimating the return period of extreme floods for reinsurance applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raven, Emma; Busby, Kathryn; Liu, Ye

    2013-04-01

    Mapping and modelling extreme natural events is fundamental within the insurance and reinsurance industry for assessing risk. For example, insurers might use a 1 in 100-year flood hazard map to set the annual premium of a property, whilst a reinsurer might assess the national scale loss associated with the 1 in 200-year return period for capital and regulatory requirements. Using examples from a range of international flood projects, we focus on exploring how to define what the n-year flood looks like for predictive uses in re/insurance applications, whilst considering challenges posed by short historical flow records and the spatial and temporal complexities of flood. First, we shall explore the use of extreme value theory (EVT) statistics for extrapolating data beyond the range of observations in a marginal analysis. In particular, we discuss how to estimate the return period of historical flood events and explore the impact that a range of statistical decisions have on these estimates. Decisions include: (1) selecting which distribution type to apply (e.g. generalised Pareto distribution (GPD) vs. generalised extreme value distribution (GEV)); (2) if former, the choice of the threshold above which the GPD is fitted to the data; and (3) the necessity to perform a cluster analysis to group flow peaks to temporally represent individual flood events. Second, we summarise a specialised multivariate extreme value model, which combines the marginal analysis above with dependence modelling to generate industry standard event sets containing thousands of simulated, equi-probable floods across a region/country. These events represent the typical range of anticipated flooding across a region and can be used to estimate the largest or most widespread events that are expected to occur. Finally, we summarise how a reinsurance catastrophe model combines the event set with detailed flood hazard maps to estimate the financial cost of floods; both the full event set and also

  2. Renyi statistics in equilibrium statistical mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parvan, A.S.; Biro, T.S.

    2010-01-01

    The Renyi statistics in the canonical and microcanonical ensembles is examined both in general and in particular for the ideal gas. In the microcanonical ensemble the Renyi statistics is equivalent to the Boltzmann-Gibbs statistics. By the exact analytical results for the ideal gas, it is shown that in the canonical ensemble, taking the thermodynamic limit, the Renyi statistics is also equivalent to the Boltzmann-Gibbs statistics. Furthermore it satisfies the requirements of the equilibrium thermodynamics, i.e. the thermodynamical potential of the statistical ensemble is a homogeneous function of first degree of its extensive variables of state. We conclude that the Renyi statistics arrives at the same thermodynamical relations, as those stemming from the Boltzmann-Gibbs statistics in this limit.

  3. Sampling, Probability Models and Statistical Reasoning Statistical

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 1; Issue 5. Sampling, Probability Models and Statistical Reasoning Statistical Inference. Mohan Delampady V R Padmawar. General Article Volume 1 Issue 5 May 1996 pp 49-58 ...

  4. Return period assessment of urban pluvial floods through modelling of rainfall–flood response

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tuyls, Damian Murla; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Rasmussen, Michael Robdrup

    2018-01-01

    Intense rainfall in urban areas can often generate severe flood impacts. Consequently, it is crucial to design systems to minimize potential flood damages. Traditional, simple design of urban drainage systems assumes agreement between rainfall return period and its consequent flood return period......; however, this does not always apply. Hydraulic infrastructures found in urban drainage systems can increase system heterogeneity and perturb the impact of severe rainfall response. In this study, a surface flood return period assessment was carried out at Lystrup (Denmark), which has received the impact...... of flooding in recent years. A 35 years' rainfall dataset together with a coupled 1D/2D surface and network model was used to analyse and assess flood return period response. Results show an ambiguous relation between rainfall and flood return periods indicating that linear rainfall–runoff relationships will...

  5. Flood frequency approach in a Mediterranean Flash Flood basin. A case study in the Besòs catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velasco, D.; Zanon, F.; Corral, C.; Sempere-Torres, D.; Borga, M.

    2009-04-01

    Flash floods are one of the most devastating natural disasters in the Mediterranean areas. In particular, the region of Catalonia (North-East Spain) is one of the most affected by flash floods in the Iberian Peninsula. The high rainfall intensities generating these events, the specific terrain characteristics giving rise to very fast hydrological responses and the high variability in space and time of both rain and land surface, are the main features of FF and also the main cause of their extreme complexity. Distributed hydrological models have been developed to increase the flow forecast resolution in order to implement effective operational warning systems. Some studies have shown how the distributed-models accuracy is highly sensitive to reduced computational grid scale, so, hydrological model uncertainties must be studied. In these conditions, an estimation of the modeling uncertainty (whatever the accuracy is) becomes highly valuable information to enhance our ability to predict the occurrence of flash flooding. The statistical-distributed modeling approach (Reed, 2004) is proposed in the present study to simulate floods on a small basin and account for hydrologic modeling uncertainty. The Besòs catchment (1020 km2), near Barcelona, has been selected in this study to apply the proposed flood frequency methodology. Hydrometeorological data is available for 11 rain-gauges and 6 streamflow gauges in the last 12 years, and a total of 9 flood events have been identified and analyzed in this study. The DiCHiTop hydrological model (Corral, 2004) was developed to fit operational requirements in the Besòs catchment: distributed, robust and easy to implement. It is a grid-based model that works at a given resolution (here at 1 × 1 km2, the hydrological cell), defining a simplified drainage system at this scale. A loss function is applied at the hydrological cell resolution, provided by a coupled storage model between the SCS model (Mockus, 1957) in urban areas and

  6. Floods and droughts on the lower Vistula

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marzenna Sztobryn

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The study analyses floods and droughts on the lower Vistula based on the data (water levels and flow rates recorded in stations of the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute (IMGW-PIB in Warsaw, Kępa Polska, Toruń and Tczew. It also includes the causes of flooding and drought in the lower Vistula with the hydrological characteristics from the years 1951–2010. The variability in maximum and minimum annual and monthly flow rates has been analysed for the aforementioned period as well. In addition, the authors have analysed changes in the shape of the flood wave after passing through the reservoir and cascade in Włocławek based on the hydrograph of May and June 2010. It has been found that the flood wave is flattened and extended. This phenomenon is favourable from the point of view of flood actions.

  7. Characterization of remarkable floods in France, a transdisciplinary approach applied on generalized floods of January 1910

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boudou, Martin; Lang, Michel; Vinet, Freddy; Coeur, Denis

    2014-05-01

    The 2007 Flood Directive promotes the integration and valorization of historical and significant floods in flood risk management (Flood Directive Text, chapter II, and article 4). Taking into account extreme past floods analysis seems necessary in the mitigation process of vulnerability face to flooding risk. In France, this aspect of the Directive was carried out through the elaboration of Preliminary Flood Risk Assessment (PFRA) and the establishment of a 2000 floods list. From this first list, a sample of 176 floods, considered as remarkable has been selected. These floods were compiled in discussion with local authorities in charge of flood management (Lang et al., 2012) and have to be integrated in priority in local risk management policies. However, a consideration emerges about this classification: how a remarkable flood can be defined? According which criteria can it be considered as remarkable? To answer these questions, a methodology has been established by building an evaluation grid of remarkable floods in France. The primary objective of this grid is to analyze the remarkable flood's characteristics (hydrological and meteorological characteristics, sociological- political and economic impacts), and secondly to propose a classification of significant floods selected in the 2011 PFRA. To elaborate this evaluation grid, several issues had to be taken into account. First, the objective is to allow the comparison of events from various periods. These temporal disparities include the integration of various kinds of data and point out the importance of historical hydrology. It is possible to evaluate accurately the characteristics of recent floods by interpreting quantitative data (for example hydrological records. However, for floods that occurred before the 1960's it is necessary resorting to qualitative information such as written sources is necessary (Coeur, Lang, 2008). In a second part the evaluation grid requires equitable criteria in order not to

  8. Effect of Urban Green Spaces and Flooded Area Type on Flooding Probability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyomin Kim

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Countermeasures to urban flooding should consider long-term perspectives, because climate change impacts are unpredictable and complex. Urban green spaces have emerged as a potential option to reduce urban flood risks, and their effectiveness has been highlighted in notable urban water management studies. In this study, flooded areas in Seoul, Korea, were divided into four flooded area types by cluster analysis based on topographic and physical characteristics and verified using discriminant analysis. After division by flooded area type, logistic regression analysis was performed to determine how the flooding probability changes with variations in green space area. Type 1 included regions where flooding occurred in a drainage basin that had a flood risk management infrastructure (FRMI. In Type 2, the slope was steep; the TWI (Topographic Wetness Index was relatively low; and soil drainage was favorable. Type 3 represented the gentlest sloping areas, and these were associated with the highest TWI values. In addition, these areas had the worst soil drainage. Type 4 had moderate slopes, imperfect soil drainage and lower than average TWI values. We found that green spaces exerted a considerable influence on urban flooding probabilities in Seoul, and flooding probabilities could be reduced by over 50% depending on the green space area and the locations where green spaces were introduced. Increasing the area of green spaces was the most effective method of decreasing flooding probability in Type 3 areas. In Type 2 areas, the maximum hourly precipitation affected the flooding probability significantly, and the flooding probability in these areas was high despite the extensive green space area. These findings can contribute towards establishing guidelines for urban spatial planning to respond to urban flooding.

  9. Review of the flood risk management system in Germany after the major flood in 2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annegret H. Thieken

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Widespread flooding in June 2013 caused damage costs of €6 to 8 billion in Germany, and awoke many memories of the floods in August 2002, which resulted in total damage of €11.6 billion and hence was the most expensive natural hazard event in Germany up to now. The event of 2002 does, however, also mark a reorientation toward an integrated flood risk management system in Germany. Therefore, the flood of 2013 offered the opportunity to review how the measures that politics, administration, and civil society have implemented since 2002 helped to cope with the flood and what still needs to be done to achieve effective and more integrated flood risk management. The review highlights considerable improvements on many levels, in particular (1 an increased consideration of flood hazards in spatial planning and urban development, (2 comprehensive property-level mitigation and preparedness measures, (3 more effective flood warnings and improved coordination of disaster response, and (4 a more targeted maintenance of flood defense systems. In 2013, this led to more effective flood management and to a reduction of damage. Nevertheless, important aspects remain unclear and need to be clarified. This particularly holds for balanced and coordinated strategies for reducing and overcoming the impacts of flooding in large catchments, cross-border and interdisciplinary cooperation, the role of the general public in the different phases of flood risk management, as well as a transparent risk transfer system. Recurring flood events reveal that flood risk management is a continuous task. Hence, risk drivers, such as climate change, land-use changes, economic developments, or demographic change and the resultant risks must be investigated at regular intervals, and risk reduction strategies and processes must be reassessed as well as adapted and implemented in a dialogue with all stakeholders.

  10. Misuse of statistics in the interpretation of data on low-level radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.

    1982-01-01

    Four misuses of statistics in the interpretation of data of low-level radiation are reviewed: (1) post-hoc analysis and aggregation of data leading to faulty conclusions in the reanalysis of genetic effects of the atomic bomb, and premature conclusions on the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard data; (2) inappropriate adjustment for age and ignoring differences between urban and rural areas leading to potentially spurious increase in incidence of cancer at Rocky Flats; (3) hazard of summary statistics based on ill-conditioned individual rates leading to spurious association between childhood leukemia and fallout in Utah; and (4) the danger of prematurely published preliminary work with inadequate consideration of epidemiological problems - censored data - leading to inappropriate conclusions, needless alarm at the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard, and diversion of scarce research funds

  11. Misuse of statistics in the interpretation of data on low-level radiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.

    1982-01-01

    Four misuses of statistics in the interpretation of data of low-level radiation are reviewed: (1) post-hoc analysis and aggregation of data leading to faulty conclusions in the reanalysis of genetic effects of the atomic bomb, and premature conclusions on the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard data; (2) inappropriate adjustment for age and ignoring differences between urban and rural areas leading to potentially spurious increase in incidence of cancer at Rocky Flats; (3) hazard of summary statistics based on ill-conditioned individual rates leading to spurious association between childhood leukemia and fallout in Utah; and (4) the danger of prematurely published preliminary work with inadequate consideration of epidemiological problems - censored data - leading to inappropriate conclusions, needless alarm at the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard, and diversion of scarce research funds.

  12. Probabilistic, meso-scale flood loss modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreibich, Heidi; Botto, Anna; Schröter, Kai; Merz, Bruno

    2016-04-01

    Flood risk analyses are an important basis for decisions on flood risk management and adaptation. However, such analyses are associated with significant uncertainty, even more if changes in risk due to global change are expected. Although uncertainty analysis and probabilistic approaches have received increased attention during the last years, they are still not standard practice for flood risk assessments and even more for flood loss modelling. State of the art in flood loss modelling is still the use of simple, deterministic approaches like stage-damage functions. Novel probabilistic, multi-variate flood loss models have been developed and validated on the micro-scale using a data-mining approach, namely bagging decision trees (Merz et al. 2013). In this presentation we demonstrate and evaluate the upscaling of the approach to the meso-scale, namely on the basis of land-use units. The model is applied in 19 municipalities which were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany (Botto et al. submitted). The application of bagging decision tree based loss models provide a probability distribution of estimated loss per municipality. Validation is undertaken on the one hand via a comparison with eight deterministic loss models including stage-damage functions as well as multi-variate models. On the other hand the results are compared with official loss data provided by the Saxon Relief Bank (SAB). The results show, that uncertainties of loss estimation remain high. Thus, the significant advantage of this probabilistic flood loss estimation approach is that it inherently provides quantitative information about the uncertainty of the prediction. References: Merz, B.; Kreibich, H.; Lall, U. (2013): Multi-variate flood damage assessment: a tree-based data-mining approach. NHESS, 13(1), 53-64. Botto A, Kreibich H, Merz B, Schröter K (submitted) Probabilistic, multi-variable flood loss modelling on the meso-scale with BT-FLEMO. Risk Analysis.

  13. Probabilistic Flood Mapping using Volunteered Geographical Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivera, S. J.; Girons Lopez, M.; Seibert, J.; Minsker, B. S.

    2016-12-01

    Flood extent maps are widely used by decision makers and first responders to provide critical information that prevents economic impacts and the loss of human lives. These maps are usually obtained from sensory data and/or hydrologic models, which often have limited coverage in space and time. Recent developments in social media and communication technology have created a wealth of near-real-time, user-generated content during flood events in many urban areas, such as flooded locations, pictures of flooding extent and height, etc. These data could improve decision-making and response operations as events unfold. However, the integration of these data sources has been limited due to the need for methods that can extract and translate the data into useful information for decision-making. This study presents an approach that uses volunteer geographic information (VGI) and non-traditional data sources (i.e., Twitter, Flicker, YouTube, and 911 and 311 calls) to generate/update the flood extent maps in areas where no models and/or gauge data are operational. The approach combines Web-crawling and computer vision techniques to gather information about the location, extent, and water height of the flood from unstructured textual data, images, and videos. These estimates are then used to provide an updated flood extent map for areas surrounding the geo-coordinate of the VGI through the application of a Hydro Growing Region Algorithm (HGRA). HGRA combines hydrologic and image segmentation concepts to estimate a probabilistic flooding extent along the corresponding creeks. Results obtained for a case study in Austin, TX (i.e., 2015 Memorial Day flood) were comparable to those obtained by a calibrated hydrologic model and had good spatial correlation with flooding extents estimated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).

  14. Flood impacts on a water distribution network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arrighi, Chiara; Tarani, Fabio; Vicario, Enrico; Castelli, Fabio

    2017-12-01

    Floods cause damage to people, buildings and infrastructures. Water distribution systems are particularly exposed, since water treatment plants are often located next to the rivers. Failure of the system leads to both direct losses, for instance damage to equipment and pipework contamination, and indirect impact, since it may lead to service disruption and thus affect populations far from the event through the functional dependencies of the network. In this work, we present an analysis of direct and indirect damages on a drinking water supply system, considering the hazard of riverine flooding as well as the exposure and vulnerability of active system components. The method is based on interweaving, through a semi-automated GIS procedure, a flood model and an EPANET-based pipe network model with a pressure-driven demand approach, which is needed when modelling water distribution networks in highly off-design conditions. Impact measures are defined and estimated so as to quantify service outage and potential pipe contamination. The method is applied to the water supply system of the city of Florence, Italy, serving approximately 380 000 inhabitants. The evaluation of flood impact on the water distribution network is carried out for different events with assigned recurrence intervals. Vulnerable elements exposed to the flood are identified and analysed in order to estimate their residual functionality and to simulate failure scenarios. Results show that in the worst failure scenario (no residual functionality of the lifting station and a 500-year flood), 420 km of pipework would require disinfection with an estimated cost of EUR 21 million, which is about 0.5 % of the direct flood losses evaluated for buildings and contents. Moreover, if flood impacts on the water distribution network are considered, the population affected by the flood is up to 3 times the population directly flooded.

  15. Characterization of flood and precipitation events in Southwestern Germany and stochastic simulation of extreme precipitation (Project FLORIS-SV)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Florian, Ehmele; Michael, Kunz

    2016-04-01

    Several major flood events occurred in Germany in the past 15-20 years especially in the eastern parts along the rivers Elbe and Danube. Examples include the major floods of 2002 and 2013 with an estimated loss of about 2 billion Euros each. The last major flood events in the State of Baden-Württemberg in southwest Germany occurred in the years 1978 and 1993/1994 along the rivers Rhine and Neckar with an estimated total loss of about 150 million Euros (converted) each. Flood hazard originates from a combination of different meteorological, hydrological and hydraulic processes. Currently there is no defined methodology available for evaluating and quantifying the flood hazard and related risk for larger areas or whole river catchments instead of single gauges. In order to estimate the probable maximum loss for higher return periods (e.g. 200 years, PML200), a stochastic model approach is designed since observational data are limited in time and space. In our approach, precipitation is linearly composed of three elements: background precipitation, orographically-induces precipitation, and a convectively-driven part. We use linear theory of orographic precipitation formation for the stochastic precipitation model (SPM), which is based on fundamental statistics of relevant atmospheric variables. For an adequate number of historic flood events, the corresponding atmospheric conditions and parameters are determined in order to calculate a probability density function (pdf) for each variable. This method involves all theoretically possible scenarios which may not have happened, yet. This work is part of the FLORIS-SV (FLOod RISk Sparkassen Versicherung) project and establishes the first step of a complete modelling chain of the flood risk. On the basis of the generated stochastic precipitation event set, hydrological and hydraulic simulations will be performed to estimate discharge and water level. The resulting stochastic flood event set will be used to quantify the

  16. Flash floods in Catalonia: a recurrent situation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llasat, M. C.; Lindbergh, S.; Llasat-Botija, M.; Rodríguez, A.; Zaragoza, A.

    2009-09-01

    A database with information about the social impact produced by all the flood events recorded in Catalonia between 1982 and 2007 has been built. Original information comes from the INUNGAMA database (1900-2000) presented by Barnolas and Llasat (2007), the PRESSGAMA database (1982-2007) (Llasat et al., in rev.) and information from different published works (Barriendos et al, 2003; Barriendos and Pomés, 1993). Social impact has been obtained systematically in basis to news press data and, occasionally, in basis to insurance data. Flood events have been classified in ordinary floods, extraordinary floods and catastrophic ones, following the proposal of Llasat et al (2005). However, having in mind the flash floods effects, some new categories concerning casualties and car damages have also been introduced. The spatial and temporal distribution of these flood events has been analysed. Results have been compared with those obtained for the period 1900-2000 (Barnolas and Llasat, 2007) and 1350-2000 (Barrera et al, 2006). In order to better estimate the social impact and vulnerability some indicators have been defined and analyzed for some specific cases and a specific region. Besides the indicators applied in the INUNCAT Plan to obtain a cartography of flood risk in Catalonia, other ones like the number of cars affected or the number of request received by the meteorological service, has been also taken into account. These indicators allow analyzing global and temporal trends as well as characterizing the events. The selected region has been the Maresme, which is a flood prone region with a great density of population and that experiences every year one or more flash floods. The annual number of floods shows a positive trend that cannot be justified by the rainfall trend. Both vulnerability and hazard components have been considered and a discussion about the flood prevention measures is presented. The third part of this work has been centred in the analysis and

  17. Modeling urban flood risk territories for Riga city

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piliksere, A.; Sennikovs, J.; Virbulis, J.; Bethers, U.; Bethers, P.; Valainis, A.

    2012-04-01

    the Gumbell extreme value analysis. The hydrological modelling driven by the temperature and precipitation data series from regional climate models were used for evaluation of rain event maximums in the future periods. The usage of the climate model data in hydrological models causes systematic errors; therefore the bias correction method (Sennikovs, Bethers, 2009) was applied for determination of the future rainfall intensities. SWMM model was built for the urban area. Objects of hydraulic importance (manifold, penstock, ditch, pumping station, weir, well, catchment sub-basin etc.) were included in the model. There exist pure rain sewage system and mixed rain-water/household sewage system in Riga. Sewage system with wastewater load proportional to population density was taken account and calibrated. Model system was calibrated for a real rain event against the water flux time series into sewage treatment plant of Riga. High resolution (~1.5 points per square meter) digital terrain map was used as the base for finite element mesh for the geospatial mapping of results of hydraulic calculations. Main results of study are (1) detection of the hot spots of densely populated urban areas; (2) identification of the weak chains of the melioration and sewage systems; (3) mapping the elevation of ground water mainly caused by snow melting. A.Piliksere, A.Valainis, J.Seņņikovs, (2011), A flood risk assessment for Riga city taking account climate changes, EGU, Vienna, Austria. EPA, (2004), Storm water management model. User's manual version 5.0. US Environmental Protection Agency J.Sennikovs, U.Bethers, (2009), Statistical downscaling method of regional climate model results for hydrological modelling. 18th World IMACS/MODSIM Congress, Cairns, Australia.

  18. Integrated remote sensing imagery and two-dimensional hydraulic modeling approach for impact evaluation of flood on crop yields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Huili; Liang, Zhongyao; Liu, Yong; Liang, Qiuhua; Xie, Shuguang

    2017-10-01

    The projected frequent occurrences of extreme flood events will cause significant losses to crops and will threaten food security. To reduce the potential risk and provide support for agricultural flood management, prevention, and mitigation, it is important to account for flood damage to crop production and to understand the relationship between flood characteristics and crop losses. A quantitative and effective evaluation tool is therefore essential to explore what and how flood characteristics will affect the associated crop loss, based on accurately understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of flood evolution and crop growth. Current evaluation methods are generally integrally or qualitatively based on statistic data or ex-post survey with less diagnosis into the process and dynamics of historical flood events. Therefore, a quantitative and spatial evaluation framework is presented in this study that integrates remote sensing imagery and hydraulic model simulation to facilitate the identification of historical flood characteristics that influence crop losses. Remote sensing imagery can capture the spatial variation of crop yields and yield losses from floods on a grid scale over large areas; however, it is incapable of providing spatial information regarding flood progress. Two-dimensional hydraulic model can simulate the dynamics of surface runoff and accomplish spatial and temporal quantification of flood characteristics on a grid scale over watersheds, i.e., flow velocity and flood duration. The methodological framework developed herein includes the following: (a) Vegetation indices for the critical period of crop growth from mid-high temporal and spatial remote sensing imagery in association with agricultural statistics data were used to develop empirical models to monitor the crop yield and evaluate yield losses from flood; (b) The two-dimensional hydraulic model coupled with the SCS-CN hydrologic model was employed to simulate the flood evolution process

  19. A case study on the diagnosis and consequences of flash floods in south-western Romania: The upper basin of Desnatui River

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morosanu Gabriela Adina

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper examines the flash floods that may appear in a representative river basin occupying the south-western Romania and also feature an example of the most recent flash flood from 2005-2006, more specifically, its causes and consequences. In order to accomplish the objectives, hydrological data were used to identify the characteristics of the floods. Finally, the case study of the flash flood was delivered through the field research, observational method, discussion with the authorities and investigation of the meteorological and hydrological available data. The research offers an insight on the dimension of damages triggered by a flash flood event, based on the statistical data provided by the village hall and the few remaining places preserving the traces of the floods (houses, bridges. Because we could not provide all the necessary data in order to determine the frequency and scale of such risk phenomena, the analysis is assessed on general hydrological statistics of flood events between 1964 to 2011. By leading the research, it resulted that the specific feature of the upper basin of Desnatui River is its temporary drainage and that in the periods of high flow, the capacity of the river channels is diminshed and the floods may occur. The paper succeeds to revive the insufficient scientific concerns on this kind of hydrological risks issued in the space occupied by the upper basin of Desnatui River and eventually, to supply the need for such study in the context of modern hydrological research preoccupations.

  20. Flood Damage Assessment in Pearl River Delta Rural Area Application in Huashan Town, Huadu District,Guanghzou during the 2017 5.7 Heavy Rain Storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, X.

    2017-12-01

    The Pearl River Delta (PRD) in China, the summer rain storm occurs frequently, the flood damage is very serious. Damage assessment is the basis of scientific decision-making in disaster mitigation. All approaches of flood damage analysis contain uncertainties due to the inaccuracies and generalisations used, the lack of data aggravates this problem, making methods very rough. This study presents a detailed flood damage assessment framework in Pearl River Delta rural area, using 2017 "5.7" heavy rain storm event to simulate the process and estimate the flood loss in resident building and property, agriculture production. The framework integrates four modules,1) utilize the remote sensing and statistical yearbook and so on to construct the disaster bearing bodies GIS database; 2) using hydraulics model to simulate the flood extent and depth spatial distribution;3)through field investigation to obtain the flood loss data for all kinds of hazard-affected body, using statistical analysis method to get the damage curves;4)Integrate flood scenarios, disaster bearing bodies GIS database and damage curves to calculate the flood loss estimation value. Using this methodology, in the 2017 "5.7" heavy rain storm event, Huashan Town flood damage loss is underestimate compared with the government report, because of not considering the damage of water conservancy facilities. But the disaster loss value on the spatial distribution is consistent with actual situation. In terms of aggregated values in the whole town, the model is capable of obtaining figures that are within the same order of magnitude. This study produce a flood damage assessment framework taking into account the regional characteristics of PRD rural area, provide a template for future practice. This study only considers the current impacts, the framework should be improved by taking into account socio-economic and climatic changes, as well as implementing adaptation measures to be applied to assess the potential