WorldWideScience

Sample records for factorization scale uncertainty

  1. Defining distinct negative beliefs about uncertainty: validating the factor structure of the Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sexton, Kathryn A; Dugas, Michel J

    2009-06-01

    This study examined the factor structure of the English version of the Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale (IUS; French version: M. H. Freeston, J. Rhéaume, H. Letarte, M. J. Dugas, & R. Ladouceur, 1994; English version: K. Buhr & M. J. Dugas, 2002) using a substantially larger sample than has been used in previous studies. Nonclinical undergraduate students and adults from the community (M age = 23.74 years, SD = 6.36; 73.0% female and 27.0% male) who participated in 16 studies in the Anxiety Disorders Laboratory at Concordia University in Montreal, Canada were randomly assigned to 2 datasets. Exploratory factor analysis with the 1st sample (n = 1,230) identified 2 factors: the beliefs that "uncertainty has negative behavioral and self-referent implications" and that "uncertainty is unfair and spoils everything." This 2-factor structure provided a good fit to the data (Bentler-Bonett normed fit index = .96, comparative fit index = .97, standardized root-mean residual = .05, root-mean-square error of approximation = .07) upon confirmatory factor analysis with the 2nd sample (n = 1,221). Both factors showed similarly high correlations with pathological worry, and Factor 1 showed stronger correlations with generalized anxiety disorder analogue status, trait anxiety, somatic anxiety, and depressive symptomatology. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved).

  2. Uncertainties in scaling factors for ab initio vibrational zero-point energies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irikura, Karl K.; Johnson, Russell D.; Kacker, Raghu N.; Kessel, Rüdiger

    2009-03-01

    Vibrational zero-point energies (ZPEs) determined from ab initio calculations are often scaled by empirical factors. An empirical scaling factor partially compensates for the effects arising from vibrational anharmonicity and incomplete treatment of electron correlation. These effects are not random but are systematic. We report scaling factors for 32 combinations of theory and basis set, intended for predicting ZPEs from computed harmonic frequencies. An empirical scaling factor carries uncertainty. We quantify and report, for the first time, the uncertainties associated with scaling factors for ZPE. The uncertainties are larger than generally acknowledged; the scaling factors have only two significant digits. For example, the scaling factor for B3LYP/6-31G(d) is 0.9757±0.0224 (standard uncertainty). The uncertainties in the scaling factors lead to corresponding uncertainties in predicted ZPEs. The proposed method for quantifying the uncertainties associated with scaling factors is based upon the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement, published by the International Organization for Standardization. We also present a new reference set of 60 diatomic and 15 polyatomic "experimental" ZPEs that includes estimated uncertainties.

  3. Toward a definition of intolerance of uncertainty: a review of factor analytical studies of the Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birrell, Jane; Meares, Kevin; Wilkinson, Andrew; Freeston, Mark

    2011-11-01

    Since its emergence in the early 1990s, a narrow but concentrated body of research has developed examining the role of intolerance of uncertainty (IU) in worry, and yet we still know little about its phenomenology. In an attempt to clarify our understanding of this construct, this paper traces the way in which our understanding and definition of IU have evolved throughout the literature. This paper also aims to further our understanding of IU by exploring the latent variables measures by the Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale (IUS; Freeston, Rheaume, Letarte, Dugas & Ladouceur, 1994). A review of the literature surrounding IU confirmed that the current definitions are categorical and lack specificity. A critical review of existing factor analytic studies was carried out in order to determine the underlying factors measured by the IUS. Systematic searches yielded 9 papers for review. Two factors with 12 consistent items emerged throughout the exploratory studies, and the stability of models containing these two factors was demonstrated in subsequent confirmatory studies. It is proposed that these factors represent (i) desire for predictability and an active engagement in seeking certainty, and (ii) paralysis of cognition and action in the face of uncertainty. It is suggested that these factors may represent approach and avoidance responses to uncertainty. Further research is required to confirm the construct validity of these factors and to determine the stability of this structure within clinical samples. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Characterization factors for terrestrial acidification at the global scale: a systematic analysis of spatial variability and uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Pierre-Olivier; Azevedo, Ligia B; Margni, Manuele; van Zelm, Rosalie; Deschênes, Louise; Huijbregts, Mark A J

    2014-12-01

    Characterization factors (CFs) are used in life cycle assessment (LCA) to quantify the potential impact per unit of emission. CFs are obtained from a characterization model which assess the environmental mechanisms along the cause-effect chain linking an emission to its potential damage on a given area of protection, such as loss in ecosystem quality. Up to now, CFs for acidifying emissions did not cover the global scale and were only representative of their characterization model geographical scope. Consequently, current LCA practices implicitly assume that all emissions from a global supply chain occur within the continent referring to the characterization method geographical scope. This paper provides worldwide 2°×2.5° spatially-explicit CFs, representing the change in relative loss of terrestrial vascular plant species due to an emission change of nitrogen oxides (NOx), ammonia (NH3) and sulfur dioxide (SO2). We found that spatial variability in the CFs is much larger compared to statistical uncertainty (six orders of magnitude vs. two orders of magnitude). Spatial variability is mainly caused by the atmospheric fate factor and soil sensitivity factor, while the ecological effect factor is the dominant contributor to the statistical uncertainty. The CFs provided in our study allow the worldwide spatially explicit evaluation of life cycle impacts related to acidifying emissions. This opens the door to evaluate regional life cycle emissions of different products in a global economy. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. SCALE-6 Sensitivity/Uncertainty Methods and Covariance Data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, Mark L.; Rearden, Bradley T.

    2008-01-01

    Computational methods and data used for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis within the SCALE nuclear analysis code system are presented. The methodology used to calculate sensitivity coefficients and similarity coefficients and to perform nuclear data adjustment is discussed. A description is provided of the SCALE-6 covariance library based on ENDF/B-VII and other nuclear data evaluations, supplemented by 'low-fidelity' approximate covariances. SCALE (Standardized Computer Analyses for Licensing Evaluation) is a modular code system developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to perform calculations for criticality safety, reactor physics, and radiation shielding applications. SCALE calculations typically use sequences that execute a predefined series of executable modules to compute particle fluxes and responses like the critical multiplication factor. SCALE also includes modules for sensitivity and uncertainty (S/U) analysis of calculated responses. The S/U codes in SCALE are collectively referred to as TSUNAMI (Tools for Sensitivity and UNcertainty Analysis Methodology Implementation). SCALE-6-scheduled for release in 2008-contains significant new capabilities, including important enhancements in S/U methods and data. The main functions of TSUNAMI are to (a) compute nuclear data sensitivity coefficients and response uncertainties, (b) establish similarity between benchmark experiments and design applications, and (c) reduce uncertainty in calculated responses by consolidating integral benchmark experiments. TSUNAMI includes easy-to-use graphical user interfaces for defining problem input and viewing three-dimensional (3D) geometries, as well as an integrated plotting package.

  6. Jet Energy Scale Uncertainties in ATLAS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barillari, Teresa

    2012-01-01

    The first proton-proton collisions at a centre of mass energy of √s = 7TeV have been used by the ATLAS experiment to achieve an accuracy of the jet energy measurement between 2% and 4% for jets transverse momenta between 20 GeV and 2TeV and in the absolute pseudorapidity range up to 4.5. The jet energy scale uncertainty is derived from measurements in situ of the calorimeter single response to hadrons together with systematic variations in the Monte Carlo simulation. The transverse momentum balance between a central and a forward jet in events with two high transverse momenta jets is used to set the jet energy uncertainty in the forward region. The obtained uncertainty is confirmed by in-situ measurements. Jets in the TeV energy range have been tested using a system of well calibrated jets at low transverse momenta against high transverse momenta jets. A further reduction of the jet energy scale uncertainty between 1% and 2% for jets transverse momenta above 30 GeV has been achieved using data from the 2011 run based on an integrated luminosity of 5 fb −1 .

  7. Uncertainty of the calibration factor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    According to present definitions, an error is the difference between a measured value and the ''true'' value. Thus an error has both a numerical value and a sign. In contrast, the uncertainly associated with a measurement is a parameter that characterizes the dispersion of the values ''that could reasonably be attributed to the measurand''. This parameter is normally an estimated standard deviation. An uncertainty, therefore, has no known sign and is usually assumed to be symmetrical. It is a measure of our lack of exact knowledge, after all recognized ''systematic'' effects have been eliminated by applying appropriate corrections. If errors were known exactly, the true value could be determined and there would be no problem left. In reality, errors are estimated in the best possible way and corrections made for them. Therefore, after application of all known corrections, errors need no further consideration (their expectation value being zero) and the only quantities of interest are uncertainties. 3 refs, 2 figs

  8. Jet Energy Scale Uncertainties in ATLAS

    CERN Document Server

    Barillari, T; The ATLAS collaboration

    2012-01-01

    About one year after the first proton-proton collisions at a centre of mass energy of $sqrt(s) = 7,TeV$, the ATLAS experiment has achieved an accuracy of the jet energy measurement between $2-4%$ for jet transverse momenta from $20,GeV$ to $2,TeV$ in the pseudorapidity range up to $4.5$. The jet energy scale uncertainty is derived from in-situ single hadron response measurement along with systematic variations in the Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, the transverse momentum balance between a central and a forward jet in events with only two jets at high transverse momentum is used to set the jet energy uncertainty in the forward region. The obtained uncertainty is confirmed by in-situ measurements exploiting the transverse momentum balance between a jet and a well measured reference object like the photon transverse momentum in photon-jet events. Jets in the TeV-energy regime were tested using a system of well calibrated jets at low transverse momenta against a high-pt jet. Preliminary results from the 201...

  9. New uncertainties in QCD–QED rescaling factors using quadrature ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    mf ). This is true for heavier quarks ... mass scale down to the physical quark mass scale is parametrised by the QCD–. QED rescaling factors ηf ... It will be an important numerical exercise to estimate the uncertainties in ηf using the quadrature ...

  10. Investment Decisions with Two-Factor Uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Compernolle, T.; Huisman, Kuno; Kort, Peter; Lavrutich, Maria; Nunes, Claudia; Thijssen, J.J.J.

    2018-01-01

    This paper considers investment problems in real options with non-homogeneous two-factor uncertainty. It shows that, despite claims made in the literature, the method used to derive an analytical solution in one dimensional problems cannot be straightforwardly extended to problems with two

  11. CSAU (Code Scaling, Applicability and Uncertainty)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, G.E.; Boyack, B.E.

    1989-01-01

    Best Estimate computer codes have been accepted by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission as an optional tool for performing safety analysis related to the licensing and regulation of current nuclear reactors producing commercial electrical power, providing their uncertainty is quantified. In support of this policy change, the NRC and its contractors and consultants have developed and demonstrated an uncertainty quantification methodology called CSAU. The primary use of the CSAU methodology is to quantify safety margins for existing designs; however, the methodology can also serve an equally important role in advanced reactor research for plants not yet built. This paper describes the CSAU methodology, at the generic process level, and provides the general principles whereby it may be applied to evaluations of advanced reactor designs

  12. Reducing, Maintaining, or Escalating Uncertainty? The Development and Validation of Four Uncertainty Preference Scales Related to Cancer Information Seeking and Avoidance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carcioppolo, Nick; Yang, Fan; Yang, Qinghua

    2016-09-01

    Uncertainty is a central characteristic of many aspects of cancer prevention, screening, diagnosis, and treatment. Brashers's (2001) uncertainty management theory details the multifaceted nature of uncertainty and describes situations in which uncertainty can both positively and negatively affect health outcomes. The current study extends theory on uncertainty management by developing four scale measures of uncertainty preferences in the context of cancer. Two national surveys were conducted to validate the scales and assess convergent and concurrent validity. Results support the factor structure of each measure and provide general support across multiple validity assessments. These scales can advance research on uncertainty and cancer communication by providing researchers with measures that address multiple aspects of uncertainty management.

  13. Appropriatie spatial scales to achieve model output uncertainty goals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Booij, Martijn J.; Melching, Charles S.; Chen, Xiaohong; Chen, Yongqin; Xia, Jun; Zhang, Hailun

    2008-01-01

    Appropriate spatial scales of hydrological variables were determined using an existing methodology based on a balance in uncertainties from model inputs and parameters extended with a criterion based on a maximum model output uncertainty. The original methodology uses different relationships between

  14. Scaling with known uncertainty: a synthesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jianguo Wu; Harbin Li; K. Bruce Jones; Orie L. Loucks

    2006-01-01

    Scale is a fundamental concept in ecology and all sciences (Levin 1992, Wu and Loucks 1995, Barenblatt 1996), which has received increasing attention in recent years. The previous chapters have demonstrated an immerse diversity of scaling issues present in different areas of ecology, covering species distribution, population dynamics, ecosystem processes, and...

  15. Effects of input uncertainty on cross-scale crop modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waha, Katharina; Huth, Neil; Carberry, Peter

    2014-05-01

    The quality of data on climate, soils and agricultural management in the tropics is in general low or data is scarce leading to uncertainty in process-based modeling of cropping systems. Process-based crop models are common tools for simulating crop yields and crop production in climate change impact studies, studies on mitigation and adaptation options or food security studies. Crop modelers are concerned about input data accuracy as this, together with an adequate representation of plant physiology processes and choice of model parameters, are the key factors for a reliable simulation. For example, assuming an error in measurements of air temperature, radiation and precipitation of ± 0.2°C, ± 2 % and ± 3 % respectively, Fodor & Kovacs (2005) estimate that this translates into an uncertainty of 5-7 % in yield and biomass simulations. In our study we seek to answer the following questions: (1) are there important uncertainties in the spatial variability of simulated crop yields on the grid-cell level displayed on maps, (2) are there important uncertainties in the temporal variability of simulated crop yields on the aggregated, national level displayed in time-series, and (3) how does the accuracy of different soil, climate and management information influence the simulated crop yields in two crop models designed for use at different spatial scales? The study will help to determine whether more detailed information improves the simulations and to advise model users on the uncertainty related to input data. We analyse the performance of the point-scale crop model APSIM (Keating et al., 2003) and the global scale crop model LPJmL (Bondeau et al., 2007) with different climate information (monthly and daily) and soil conditions (global soil map and African soil map) under different agricultural management (uniform and variable sowing dates) for the low-input maize-growing areas in Burkina Faso/West Africa. We test the models' response to different levels of input

  16. Uncertainties in the simulation of groundwater recharge at different scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Bogena

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Digital spatial data always imply some kind of uncertainty. The source of this uncertainty can be found in their compilation as well as the conceptual design that causes a more or less exact abstraction of the real world, depending on the scale under consideration. Within the framework of hydrological modelling, in which numerous data sets from diverse sources of uneven quality are combined, the various uncertainties are accumulated. In this study, the GROWA model is taken as an example to examine the effects of different types of uncertainties on the calculated groundwater recharge. Distributed input errors are determined for the parameters' slope and aspect using a Monte Carlo approach. Landcover classification uncertainties are analysed by using the conditional probabilities of a remote sensing classification procedure. The uncertainties of data ensembles at different scales and study areas are discussed. The present uncertainty analysis showed that the Gaussian error propagation method is a useful technique for analysing the influence of input data on the simulated groundwater recharge. The uncertainties involved in the land use classification procedure and the digital elevation model can be significant in some parts of the study area. However, for the specific model used in this study it was shown that the precipitation uncertainties have the greatest impact on the total groundwater recharge error.

  17. The uncertainty of reference standards--a guide to understanding factors impacting uncertainty, uncertainty calculations, and vendor certifications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gates, Kevin; Chang, Ning; Dilek, Isil; Jian, Huahua; Pogue, Sherri; Sreenivasan, Uma

    2009-10-01

    Certified solution standards are widely used in forensic toxicological, clinical/diagnostic, and environmental testing. Typically, these standards are purchased as ampouled solutions with a certified concentration. Vendors present concentration and uncertainty differently on their Certificates of Analysis. Understanding the factors that impact uncertainty and which factors have been considered in the vendor's assignment of uncertainty are critical to understanding the accuracy of the standard and the impact on testing results. Understanding these variables is also important for laboratories seeking to comply with ISO/IEC 17025 requirements and for those preparing reference solutions from neat materials at the bench. The impact of uncertainty associated with the neat material purity (including residual water, residual solvent, and inorganic content), mass measurement (weighing techniques), and solvent addition (solution density) on the overall uncertainty of the certified concentration is described along with uncertainty calculations.

  18. Characterizing Sources of Uncertainty in Item Response Theory Scale Scores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Ji Seung; Hansen, Mark; Cai, Li

    2012-01-01

    Traditional estimators of item response theory scale scores ignore uncertainty carried over from the item calibration process, which can lead to incorrect estimates of the standard errors of measurement (SEMs). Here, the authors review a variety of approaches that have been applied to this problem and compare them on the basis of their statistical…

  19. Uncertainty in Analyzed Water and Energy Budgets at Continental Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosilovich, Michael G.; Robertson, F. R.; Mocko, D.; Chen, J.

    2011-01-01

    Operational analyses and retrospective-analyses provide all the physical terms of mater and energy budgets, guided by the assimilation of atmospheric observations. However, there is significant reliance on the numerical models, and so, uncertainty in the budget terms is always present. Here, we use a recently developed data set consisting of a mix of 10 analyses (both operational and retrospective) to quantify the uncertainty of analyzed water and energy budget terms for GEWEX continental-scale regions, following the evaluation of Dr. John Roads using individual reanalyses data sets.

  20. Uncertainty Quantification for Large-Scale Ice Sheet Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ghattas, Omar [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States)

    2016-02-05

    This report summarizes our work to develop advanced forward and inverse solvers and uncertainty quantification capabilities for a nonlinear 3D full Stokes continental-scale ice sheet flow model. The components include: (1) forward solver: a new state-of-the-art parallel adaptive scalable high-order-accurate mass-conservative Newton-based 3D nonlinear full Stokes ice sheet flow simulator; (2) inverse solver: a new adjoint-based inexact Newton method for solution of deterministic inverse problems governed by the above 3D nonlinear full Stokes ice flow model; and (3) uncertainty quantification: a novel Hessian-based Bayesian method for quantifying uncertainties in the inverse ice sheet flow solution and propagating them forward into predictions of quantities of interest such as ice mass flux to the ocean.

  1. Psychometric Properties of the Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale (IUS in a Lithuanian-speaking population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Augustinas Rotomskis

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Research suggests that intolerance of uncertainty may be important in understanding worry and may play a key role in the etiology and maintenance of worry. Intolerance of uncertainty is measured using the Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale (IUS, which has been shown to be reliable and valid in many studies. The aim of the present study was to develop a Lithuanian version of this instrument. 228 university students completed the scale. The Lithuanian version of the IUS was found to have good psychometric properties. The IUS showed high internal consistency and good test-retest reliability over a five-week period, and good convergent and divergent validity when assessed with measures of trait anxiety, situational anxiety, and depression. Factor analysis indicated that the IUS has a two-factor structure that represents the beliefs that “uncertainty about the future is unfair” and that “uncertainty has negative behavioral and self-referent implications”. In conclusion, it was found that the Lithuanian version of the IUS is a sound scale for assessing intolerance of uncertainty.

  2. Innovative supply chain optimization models with multiple uncertainty factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Choi, Tsan Ming; Govindan, Kannan; Li, Xiang

    2017-01-01

    Uncertainty is an inherent factor that affects all dimensions of supply chain activities. In today’s business environment, initiatives to deal with one specific type of uncertainty might not be effective since other types of uncertainty factors and disruptions may be present. These factors relate...... to supply chain competition and coordination. Thus, to achieve a more efficient and effective supply chain requires the deployment of innovative optimization models and novel methods. This preface provides a concise review of critical research issues regarding innovative supply chain optimization models...

  3. Validation and cultural adaptation of a German version of the Physicians' Reactions to Uncertainty scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joest Katharina

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The aim of the study was to examine the validity of a translated and culturally adapted version of the Physicians' Reaction to Uncertainty scales (PRU in primary care physicians. Methods In a structured process, the original questionnaire was translated, culturally adapted and assessed after administering it to 93 GPs. Test-retest reliability was tested by sending the questionnaire to the GPs again after two weeks. Results The principal factor analysis confirmed the postulated four-factor structure underlying the 15 items. In contrast to the original version, item 5 achieved a higher loading on the 'concern about bad outcomes' scale. Consequently, we rearranged the scales. Good item-scale correlations were obtained, with Pearson's correlation coefficient ranging from 0.56–0.84. As regards the item-discriminant validity between the scales 'anxiety due to uncertainty' and 'concern about bad outcomes', partially high correlations (Pearson's correlation coefficient 0.02–0.69; p Conclusion Dealing with uncertainty is an important issue in daily practice. The psychometric properties of the rearranged German version of the PRU are satisfying. The revealed floor effects do not limit the significance of the questionnaire. Thus, the German version of the PRU could contribute to the further evaluation of the impact of uncertainty in primary care physicians.

  4. Final Report: Quantification of Uncertainty in Extreme Scale Computations (QUEST)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marzouk, Youssef [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States); Conrad, Patrick [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States); Bigoni, Daniele [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States); Parno, Matthew [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States)

    2017-06-09

    QUEST (\\url{www.quest-scidac.org}) is a SciDAC Institute that is focused on uncertainty quantification (UQ) in large-scale scientific computations. Our goals are to (1) advance the state of the art in UQ mathematics, algorithms, and software; and (2) provide modeling, algorithmic, and general UQ expertise, together with software tools, to other SciDAC projects, thereby enabling and guiding a broad range of UQ activities in their respective contexts. QUEST is a collaboration among six institutions (Sandia National Laboratories, Los Alamos National Laboratory, the University of Southern California, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the University of Texas at Austin, and Duke University) with a history of joint UQ research. Our vision encompasses all aspects of UQ in leadership-class computing. This includes the well-founded setup of UQ problems; characterization of the input space given available data/information; local and global sensitivity analysis; adaptive dimensionality and order reduction; forward and inverse propagation of uncertainty; handling of application code failures, missing data, and hardware/software fault tolerance; and model inadequacy, comparison, validation, selection, and averaging. The nature of the UQ problem requires the seamless combination of data, models, and information across this landscape in a manner that provides a self-consistent quantification of requisite uncertainties in predictions from computational models. Accordingly, our UQ methods and tools span an interdisciplinary space across applied math, information theory, and statistics. The MIT QUEST effort centers on statistical inference and methods for surrogate or reduced-order modeling. MIT personnel have been responsible for the development of adaptive sampling methods, methods for approximating computationally intensive models, and software for both forward uncertainty propagation and statistical inverse problems. A key software product of the MIT QUEST effort is the MIT

  5. Psychometric properties of the parent́s perception uncertainty in illness scale, spanish version.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suarez-Acuña, C E; Carvajal-Carrascal, G; Serrano-Gómez, M E

    2018-03-27

    To analyze the psychometric properties of the Parents' Perception of Uncertainty in Illness Scale, parents/children, adapted to Spanish. A descriptive methodological study involving the translation into Spanish of the Parents' Perception of Uncertainty in Illness Scale, parents/children, and analysis of their face validity, content validity, construct validity and internal consistency. The original version of the scale in English was translated into Spanish, and approved by its author. Six face validity items with comprehension difficulty were reported; which were reviewed and adapted, keeping its structure. The global content validity index with expert appraisal was 0.94. In the exploratory analysis of factors, 3 dimensions were identified: ambiguity and lack of information, unpredictability and lack of clarity, with a KMO=0.846, which accumulated 91.5% of the explained variance. The internal consistency of the scale yielded a Cronbach alpha of 0.86 demonstrating a good level of correlation between items. The Spanish version of "Parent's Perception of Uncertainty in Illness Scale" is a valid and reliable tool that can be used to determine the level of uncertainty of parents facing the illness of their children. Copyright © 2018 Sociedad Española de Enfermería Intensiva y Unidades Coronarias (SEEIUC). Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  6. Pore-scale uncertainty quantification with multilevel Monte Carlo

    KAUST Repository

    Icardi, Matteo

    2014-01-06

    Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of pore-scale transport processes in porous media have recently gained large popularity. However the geometrical details of the pore structures can be known only in a very low number of samples and the detailed flow computations can be carried out only on a limited number of cases. The explicit introduction of randomness in the geometry and in other setup parameters can be crucial for the optimization of pore-scale investigations for random homogenization. Since there are no generic ways to parametrize the randomness in the porescale structures, Monte Carlo techniques are the most accessible to compute statistics. We propose a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) technique to reduce the computational cost of estimating quantities of interest within a prescribed accuracy constraint. Random samples of pore geometries with a hierarchy of geometrical complexities and grid refinements, are synthetically generated and used to propagate the uncertainties in the flow simulations and compute statistics of macro-scale effective parameters.

  7. Mapping neighborhood scale survey responses with uncertainty metrics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles Robert Ehlschlaeger

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a methodology of mapping population-centric social, infrastructural, and environmental metrics at neighborhood scale. This methodology extends traditional survey analysis methods to create cartographic products useful in agent-based modeling and geographic information analysis. It utilizes and synthesizes survey microdata, sub-upazila attributes, land use information, and ground truth locations of attributes to create neighborhood scale multi-attribute maps. Monte Carlo methods are employed to combine any number of survey responses to stochastically weight survey cases and to simulate survey cases' locations in a study area. Through such Monte Carlo methods, known errors from each of the input sources can be retained. By keeping individual survey cases as the atomic unit of data representation, this methodology ensures that important covariates are retained and that ecological inference fallacy is eliminated. These techniques are demonstrated with a case study from the Chittagong Division in Bangladesh. The results provide a population-centric understanding of many social, infrastructural, and environmental metrics desired in humanitarian aid and disaster relief planning and operations wherever long term familiarity is lacking. Of critical importance is that the resulting products have easy to use explicit representation of the errors and uncertainties of each of the input sources via the automatically generated summary statistics created at the application's geographic scale.

  8. Sustainability Risk Evaluation for Large-Scale Hydropower Projects with Hybrid Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weiyao Tang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available As large-scale hydropower projects are influenced by many factors, risk evaluations are complex. This paper considers a hydropower project as a complex system from the perspective of sustainability risk, and divides it into three subsystems: the natural environment subsystem, the eco-environment subsystem and the socioeconomic subsystem. Risk-related factors and quantitative dimensions of each subsystem are comprehensively analyzed considering uncertainty of some quantitative dimensions solved by hybrid uncertainty methods, including fuzzy (e.g., the national health degree, the national happiness degree, the protection of cultural heritage, random (e.g., underground water levels, river width, and fuzzy random uncertainty (e.g., runoff volumes, precipitation. By calculating the sustainability risk-related degree in each of the risk-related factors, a sustainable risk-evaluation model is built. Based on the calculation results, the critical sustainability risk-related factors are identified and targeted to reduce the losses caused by sustainability risk factors of the hydropower project. A case study at the under-construction Baihetan hydropower station is presented to demonstrate the viability of the risk-evaluation model and to provide a reference for the sustainable risk evaluation of other large-scale hydropower projects.

  9. Evaluation of peaking factors uncertainty for CASMO-3

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Kang Suk; Song, Jae Seung; Kim, Yong Rae; Ji, Seong Kyun [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    1996-02-01

    This document evaluates the pin-to-box factor uncertainty based on using the CASMO-3 with 40-group J-library. Five CE criticals performed by Westinghouse, two by B and W and four RPI criticals were analyzed, using cross sections by CASMO-3. DOT was used for the core calculation. THis is one hof series of efforts to verify ADONIS procedure which is a new core design package under development by KAERI. The expected outcome of this analysis is CASMO-3 pin peak uncertainty applicable to CE type fuel assembly design. The evaluated uncertainty of peaking factors for CASMO-3 was 1.863%. 21 tabs., 23 figs., 12 refs. (Author) .new.

  10. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of fission gas behavior in engineering-scale fuel modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pastore, Giovanni, E-mail: Giovanni.Pastore@inl.gov [Fuel Modeling and Simulation, Idaho National Laboratory, P.O. Box 1625, Idaho Falls, ID 83415-3840 (United States); Swiler, L.P., E-mail: LPSwile@sandia.gov [Optimization and Uncertainty Quantification, Sandia National Laboratories, P.O. Box 5800, Albuquerque, NM 87185-1318 (United States); Hales, J.D., E-mail: Jason.Hales@inl.gov [Fuel Modeling and Simulation, Idaho National Laboratory, P.O. Box 1625, Idaho Falls, ID 83415-3840 (United States); Novascone, S.R., E-mail: Stephen.Novascone@inl.gov [Fuel Modeling and Simulation, Idaho National Laboratory, P.O. Box 1625, Idaho Falls, ID 83415-3840 (United States); Perez, D.M., E-mail: Danielle.Perez@inl.gov [Fuel Modeling and Simulation, Idaho National Laboratory, P.O. Box 1625, Idaho Falls, ID 83415-3840 (United States); Spencer, B.W., E-mail: Benjamin.Spencer@inl.gov [Fuel Modeling and Simulation, Idaho National Laboratory, P.O. Box 1625, Idaho Falls, ID 83415-3840 (United States); Luzzi, L., E-mail: Lelio.Luzzi@polimi.it [Politecnico di Milano, Department of Energy, Nuclear Engineering Division, via La Masa 34, I-20156 Milano (Italy); Van Uffelen, P., E-mail: Paul.Van-Uffelen@ec.europa.eu [European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Transuranium Elements, Hermann-von-Helmholtz-Platz 1, D-76344 Karlsruhe (Germany); Williamson, R.L., E-mail: Richard.Williamson@inl.gov [Fuel Modeling and Simulation, Idaho National Laboratory, P.O. Box 1625, Idaho Falls, ID 83415-3840 (United States)

    2015-01-15

    The role of uncertainties in fission gas behavior calculations as part of engineering-scale nuclear fuel modeling is investigated using the BISON fuel performance code with a recently implemented physics-based model for fission gas release and swelling. Through the integration of BISON with the DAKOTA software, a sensitivity analysis of the results to selected model parameters is carried out based on UO{sub 2} single-pellet simulations covering different power regimes. The parameters are varied within ranges representative of the relative uncertainties and consistent with the information in the open literature. The study leads to an initial quantitative assessment of the uncertainty in fission gas behavior predictions with the parameter characterization presently available. Also, the relative importance of the single parameters is evaluated. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis is carried out based on simulations of a fuel rod irradiation experiment, pointing out a significant impact of the considered uncertainties on the calculated fission gas release and cladding diametral strain. The results of the study indicate that the commonly accepted deviation between calculated and measured fission gas release by a factor of 2 approximately corresponds to the inherent modeling uncertainty at high fission gas release. Nevertheless, significantly higher deviations may be expected for values around 10% and lower. Implications are discussed in terms of directions of research for the improved modeling of fission gas behavior for engineering purposes.

  11. Uncertainties in modeling and scaling in the prediction of fuel stored energy and thermal response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wulff, W.

    1987-01-01

    The steady-state temperature distribution and the stored energy in nuclear fuel elements are computed by analytical methods and used to rank, in the order of importance, the effects on stored energy from statistical uncertainties in modeling parameters, in boundary and in operating conditions. An integral technique is used to calculate the transient fuel temperature and to estimate the uncertainties in predicting the fuel thermal response and the peak clad temperature during a large-break loss of coolant accident. The uncertainty analysis presented here is an important part of evaluating the applicability, the uncertainties and the scaling capabilities of computer codes for nuclear reactor safety analyses. The methods employed in this analysis merit general attention because of their simplicity. It is shown that the blowdown peak is dominated by fuel stored energy alone or, equivalently, by linear heating rate. Gap conductance, peaking factors and fuel thermal conductivity are the three most important fuel modeling parameters affecting peak clad temperature uncertainty. 26 refs., 10 figs., 6 tabs

  12. Achieving 95% probability level using best estimate codes and the code scaling, applicability and uncertainty (CSAU) [Code Scaling, Applicability and Uncertainty] methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, G.E.; Boyack, B.E.; Duffey, R.B.; Griffith, P.; Katsma, K.R.; Lellouche, G.S.; Rohatgi, U.S.; Wulff, W.; Zuber, N.

    1988-01-01

    Issue of a revised rule for loss of coolant accident/emergency core cooling system (LOCA/ECCS) analysis of light water reactors will allow the use of best estimate (BE) computer codes in safety analysis, with uncertainty analysis. This paper describes a systematic methodology, CSAU (Code Scaling, Applicability and Uncertainty), which will provide uncertainty bounds in a cost effective, auditable, rational and practical manner. 8 figs., 2 tabs

  13. Development of Risk Uncertainty Factors from Historical NASA Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amer, Tahani R.

    2011-01-01

    NASA is a good investment of federal funds and strives to provide the best value to the nation. NASA has consistently budgeted to unrealistic cost estimates, which are evident in the cost growth in many of its programs. In this investigation, NASA has been using available uncertainty factors from the Aerospace Corporation, Air Force, and Booz Allen Hamilton to develop projects risk posture. NASA has no insight into the developmental of these factors and, as demonstrated here, this can lead to unrealistic risks in many NASA Programs and projects (P/p). The primary contribution of this project is the development of NASA missions uncertainty factors, from actual historical NASA projects, to aid cost-estimating as well as for independent reviews which provide NASA senior management with information and analysis to determine the appropriate decision regarding P/p. In general terms, this research project advances programmatic analysis for NASA projects.

  14. Sources of errors and uncertainties in the assessment of forest soil carbon stocks at different scales

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vanguelova, E. I.; Bonifacio, E.; De Vos, B.

    2016-01-01

    temporal changes and spatial differences in SOC. This requires sufficiently detailed data to predict SOC stocks at appropriate scales within the required accuracy so that only significant changes are accounted for. When designing sampling campaigns, taking into account factors influencing SOC spatial...... and temporal distribution (such as soil type, topography, climate and vegetation) are needed to optimise sampling depths and numbers of samples, thereby ensuring that samples accurately reflect the distribution of SOC at a site. Furthermore, the appropriate scales related to the research question need...... to be defined: profile, plot, forests, catchment, national or wider. Scaling up SOC stocks from point sample to landscape unit is challenging, and thus requires reliable baseline data. Knowledge of the associated uncertainties related to SOC measures at each particular scale and how to reduce them is crucial...

  15. Simulating space-time uncertainty in continental-scale gridded precipitation fields for agrometeorological modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wit, de A.J.W.; Bruin, de S.

    2006-01-01

    Previous analyses of the effects of uncertainty in precipitation fields on the output of EU Crop Growth Monitoring System (CGMS) demonstrated that the influence on simulated crop yield was limited at national scale, but considerable at local and regional scales. We aim to propagate uncertainty due

  16. Uncertainty analysis for a field-scale P loss model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Models are often used to predict phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural fields. While it is commonly recognized that model predictions are inherently uncertain, few studies have addressed prediction uncertainties using P loss models. In this study we assessed the effect of model input error on predic...

  17. Uncertainties

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    To reflect this uncertainty in the climate scenarios, the use of AOGCMs that explicitly simulate the carbon cycle and chemistry of all the substances are needed. The Hadley Centre has developed a version of the climate model that allows the effect of climate change on the carbon cycle and its feedback into climate, to be ...

  18. Uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, T.A. da

    1988-01-01

    The comparison between the uncertainty method recommended by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the and the International Weight and Measure Commitee (CIPM) are showed, for the calibration of clinical dosimeters in the secondary standard Dosimetry Laboratory (SSDL). (C.G.C.) [pt

  19. On the predictivity of pore-scale simulations: estimating uncertainties with multilevel Monte Carlo

    KAUST Repository

    Icardi, Matteo

    2016-02-08

    A fast method with tunable accuracy is proposed to estimate errors and uncertainties in pore-scale and Digital Rock Physics (DRP) problems. The overall predictivity of these studies can be, in fact, hindered by many factors including sample heterogeneity, computational and imaging limitations, model inadequacy and not perfectly known physical parameters. The typical objective of pore-scale studies is the estimation of macroscopic effective parameters such as permeability, effective diffusivity and hydrodynamic dispersion. However, these are often non-deterministic quantities (i.e., results obtained for specific pore-scale sample and setup are not totally reproducible by another “equivalent” sample and setup). The stochastic nature can arise due to the multi-scale heterogeneity, the computational and experimental limitations in considering large samples, and the complexity of the physical models. These approximations, in fact, introduce an error that, being dependent on a large number of complex factors, can be modeled as random. We propose a general simulation tool, based on multilevel Monte Carlo, that can reduce drastically the computational cost needed for computing accurate statistics of effective parameters and other quantities of interest, under any of these random errors. This is, to our knowledge, the first attempt to include Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in pore-scale physics and simulation. The method can also provide estimates of the discretization error and it is tested on three-dimensional transport problems in heterogeneous materials, where the sampling procedure is done by generation algorithms able to reproduce realistic consolidated and unconsolidated random sphere and ellipsoid packings and arrangements. A totally automatic workflow is developed in an open-source code [2015. https://bitbucket.org/micardi/porescalemc.], that include rigid body physics and random packing algorithms, unstructured mesh discretization, finite volume solvers

  20. A Comparison of the 27-Item and 12-Item Intolerance of Uncertainty Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khawaja, Nigar G.; Yu, Lai Ngo Heidi

    2010-01-01

    The 27-item Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale (IUS) has become one of the most frequently used measures of Intolerance of Uncertainty. More recently, an abridged, 12-item version of the IUS has been developed. The current research used clinical (n = 50) and non-clinical (n = 56) samples to examine and compare the psychometric properties of both…

  1. Developing scales measuring disorder-specific intolerance of uncertainty (DSIU) : a new perspective on transdiagnostic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thibodeau, Michel A; Carleton, R Nicholas; McEvoy, Peter M; Zvolensky, Michael J; Brandt, Charles P; Boelen, Paul A; Mahoney, Alison E J; Deacon, Brett J; Asmundson, Gordon J G

    Intolerance of uncertainty (IU) is a construct of growing prominence in literature on anxiety disorders and major depressive disorder. Existing measures of IU do not define the uncertainty that respondents perceive as distressing. To address this limitation, we developed eight scales measuring

  2. Uncertainty Quantification in Scale-Dependent Models of Flow in Porous Media: SCALE-DEPENDENT UQ

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tartakovsky, A. M. [Computational Mathematics Group, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Panzeri, M. [Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile e Ambientale, Politecnico di Milano, Milano Italy; Tartakovsky, G. D. [Hydrology Group, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Guadagnini, A. [Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile e Ambientale, Politecnico di Milano, Milano Italy

    2017-11-01

    Equations governing flow and transport in heterogeneous porous media are scale-dependent. We demonstrate that it is possible to identify a support scale $\\eta^*$, such that the typically employed approximate formulations of Moment Equations (ME) yield accurate (statistical) moments of a target environmental state variable. Under these circumstances, the ME approach can be used as an alternative to the Monte Carlo (MC) method for Uncertainty Quantification in diverse fields of Earth and environmental sciences. MEs are directly satisfied by the leading moments of the quantities of interest and are defined on the same support scale as the governing stochastic partial differential equations (PDEs). Computable approximations of the otherwise exact MEs can be obtained through perturbation expansion of moments of the state variables in orders of the standard deviation of the random model parameters. As such, their convergence is guaranteed only for the standard deviation smaller than one. We demonstrate our approach in the context of steady-state groundwater flow in a porous medium with a spatially random hydraulic conductivity.

  3. Quantification of Uncertainty in Extreme Scale Computations (QUEST)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ghanem, Roger [Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States)

    2017-04-18

    QUEST was a SciDAC Institute comprising Sandia National Laboratories, Los Alamos National Laboratory, the University of Southern California, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the University of Texas at Austin, and Duke University. The mission of QUEST is to: (1) develop a broad class of uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods/tools, and (2) provide UQ expertise and software to other SciDAC projects, thereby enabling/guiding their UQ activities. The USC effort centered on the development of reduced models and efficient algorithms for implementing various components of the UQ pipeline. USC personnel were responsible for the development of adaptive bases, adaptive quadrature, and reduced models to be used in estimation and inference.

  4. Scaling of the local quantum uncertainty at quantum phase transitions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coulamy, I.B.; Warnes, J.H.; Sarandy, M.S.; Saguia, A.

    2016-01-01

    We investigate the local quantum uncertainty (LQU) between a block of L qubits and one single qubit in a composite system of n qubits driven through a quantum phase transition (QPT). A first-order QPT is analytically considered through a Hamiltonian implementation of the quantum search. In the case of second-order QPTs, we consider the transverse-field Ising chain via a numerical analysis through density matrix renormalization group. For both cases, we compute the LQU for finite-sizes as a function of L and of the coupling parameter, analyzing its pronounced behavior at the QPT. - Highlights: • LQU is suitable for the analysis of block correlations. • LQU exhibits pronounced behavior at quantum phase transitions. • LQU exponentially saturates in the quantum search. • Concavity of LQU indicates criticality in the Ising chain.

  5. Renormalisation scale uncertainty in the DIS 2+1 jet cross-section

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ingelman, G.

    1994-05-01

    The Deep Inelastic Scattering 2+1 jet cross-section is a useful observable for precision tests of QCD, e.g. measuring the strong coupling constant α s . A consistent analysis requires a good understanding of the theoretical uncertainties and one of the fundamental ones in QCD is due to the renormalisation scheme and scale ambiguity. Different methods, which have been proposed to resolve the scale ambiguity, are applied to the 2+1 jet cross-section and the uncertainty is estimated. It is shown that the uncertainty can be made smaller by choosing the jet definition in a suitable way. (orig.)

  6. Quantifying the uncertainties of China's emission inventory for industrial sources: From national to provincial and city scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yu; Zhou, Yaduan; Qiu, Liping; Zhang, Jie

    2017-09-01

    A comprehensive uncertainty analysis was conducted on emission inventories for industrial sources at national (China), provincial (Jiangsu), and city (Nanjing) scales for 2012. Based on various methods and data sources, Monte-Carlo simulation was applied at sector level for national inventory, and at plant level (whenever possible) for provincial and city inventories. The uncertainties of national inventory were estimated at -17-37% (expressed as 95% confidence intervals, CIs), -21-35%, -19-34%, -29-40%, -22-47%, -21-54%, -33-84%, and -32-92% for SO2, NOX, CO, TSP (total suspended particles), PM10, PM2.5, black carbon (BC), and organic carbon (OC) emissions respectively for the whole country. At provincial and city levels, the uncertainties of corresponding pollutant emissions were estimated at -15-18%, -18-33%, -16-37%, -20-30%, -23-45%, -26-50%, -33-79%, and -33-71% for Jiangsu, and -17-22%, -10-33%, -23-75%, -19-36%, -23-41%, -28-48%, -45-82%, and -34-96% for Nanjing, respectively. Emission factors (or associated parameters) were identified as the biggest contributors to the uncertainties of emissions for most source categories except iron & steel production in the national inventory. Compared to national one, uncertainties of total emissions in the provincial and city-scale inventories were not significantly reduced for most species with an exception of SO2. For power and other industrial boilers, the uncertainties were reduced, and the plant-specific parameters played more important roles to the uncertainties. Much larger PM10 and PM2.5 emissions for Jiangsu were estimated in this provincial inventory than other studies, implying the big discrepancies on data sources of emission factors and activity data between local and national inventories. Although the uncertainty analysis of bottom-up emission inventories at national and local scales partly supported the ;top-down; estimates using observation and/or chemistry transport models, detailed investigations and

  7. Sensitivity, Error and Uncertainty Quantification: Interfacing Models at Different Scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krstic, Predrag S.

    2014-01-01

    Discussion on accuracy of AMO data to be used in the plasma modeling codes for astrophysics and nuclear fusion applications, including plasma-material interfaces (PMI), involves many orders of magnitude of energy, spatial and temporal scales. Thus, energies run from tens of K to hundreds of millions of K, temporal and spatial scales go from fs to years and from nm’s to m’s and more, respectively. The key challenge for the theory and simulation in this field is the consistent integration of all processes and scales, i.e. an “integrated AMO science” (IAMO). The principal goal of the IAMO science is to enable accurate studies of interactions of electrons, atoms, molecules, photons, in many-body environment, including complex collision physics of plasma-material interfaces, leading to the best decisions and predictions. However, the accuracy requirement for a particular data strongly depends on the sensitivity of the respective plasma modeling applications to these data, which stresses a need for immediate sensitivity analysis feedback of the plasma modeling and material design communities. Thus, the data provision to the plasma modeling community is a “two-way road” as long as the accuracy of the data is considered, requiring close interactions of the AMO and plasma modeling communities.

  8. Sampling based uncertainty analysis of 10% hot leg break LOCA in large scale test facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sengupta, Samiran; Kraina, V.; Dubey, S. K.; Rao, R. S.; Gupta, S. K.

    2010-01-01

    Sampling based uncertainty analysis was carried out to quantify uncertainty in predictions of best estimate code RELAP5/MOD3.2 for a thermal hydraulic test (10% hot leg break LOCA) performed in the Large Scale Test Facility (LSTF) as a part of an IAEA coordinated research project. The nodalisation of the test facility was qualified for both steady state and transient level by systematically applying the procedures led by uncertainty methodology based on accuracy extrapolation (UMAE); uncertainty analysis was carried out using the Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) method to evaluate uncertainty for ten input parameters. Sixteen output parameters were selected for uncertainty evaluation and uncertainty band between 5 th and 95 th percentile of the output parameters were evaluated. It was observed that the uncertainty band for the primary pressure during two phase blowdown is larger than that of the remaining period. Similarly, a larger uncertainty band is observed relating to accumulator injection flow during reflood phase. Importance analysis was also carried out and standard rank regression coefficients were computed to quantify the effect of each individual input parameter on output parameters. It was observed that the break discharge coefficient is the most important uncertain parameter relating to the prediction of all the primary side parameters and that the steam generator (SG) relief pressure setting is the most important parameter in predicting the SG secondary pressure

  9. Planning under uncertainty solving large-scale stochastic linear programs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Infanger, G. [Stanford Univ., CA (United States). Dept. of Operations Research]|[Technische Univ., Vienna (Austria). Inst. fuer Energiewirtschaft

    1992-12-01

    For many practical problems, solutions obtained from deterministic models are unsatisfactory because they fail to hedge against certain contingencies that may occur in the future. Stochastic models address this shortcoming, but up to recently seemed to be intractable due to their size. Recent advances both in solution algorithms and in computer technology now allow us to solve important and general classes of practical stochastic problems. We show how large-scale stochastic linear programs can be efficiently solved by combining classical decomposition and Monte Carlo (importance) sampling techniques. We discuss the methodology for solving two-stage stochastic linear programs with recourse, present numerical results of large problems with numerous stochastic parameters, show how to efficiently implement the methodology on a parallel multi-computer and derive the theory for solving a general class of multi-stage problems with dependency of the stochastic parameters within a stage and between different stages.

  10. How uncertainty in socio-economic variables affects large-scale transport model forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzo, Stefano; Nielsen, Otto Anker; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2015-01-01

    A strategic task assigned to large-scale transport models is to forecast the demand for transport over long periods of time to assess transport projects. However, by modelling complex systems transport models have an inherent uncertainty which increases over time. As a consequence, the longer...... the period forecasted the less reliable is the forecasted model output. Describing uncertainty propagation patterns over time is therefore important in order to provide complete information to the decision makers. Among the existing literature only few studies analyze uncertainty propagation patterns over...

  11. Account of the uncertainty factor in forecasting nuclear power development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chernavskij, S.Ya.

    1979-01-01

    Minimization of total discounted costs for linear constraints is commonly used in forecasting nuclear energy growth. This approach is considered inadequate due to the uncertainty of exogenous variables of the model. A method of forecasting that takes into account the presence of uncertainty is elaborated. An example that demonstrates the expediency of the method and its advantage over the conventional approximation method used for taking uncertainty into account is given. In the framework of the example, the optimal strategy for nuclear energy growth over period of 500 years is determined

  12. Using Large-Scale Cooperative Control to Manage Operational Uncertainties for Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaxa-Rozen, M.; Rostampour, V.; Kwakkel, J. H.; Bloemendal, M.

    2017-12-01

    Seasonal Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES) technology can help reduce the demand of energy for heating and cooling in buildings, and has become a popular option for larger buildings in northern Europe. However, the larger-scale deployment of this technology has evidenced some issues of concern for policymakers; in particular, recent research shows that operational uncertainties contribute to inefficient outcomes under current planning methods for ATES. For instance, systems in the Netherlands typically use less than half of their permitted pumping volume on an annual basis. This overcapacity gives users more flexibility to operate their systems in response to the uncertainties which drive building energy demand; these include short-term operational factors such as weather and occupancy, and longer-term, deeply uncertain factors such as changes in climate and aquifer conditions over the lifespan of the buildings. However, as allocated subsurface volume remains unused, this situation limits the adoption of the technology in dense areas. Previous work using coupled agent-based/geohydrological simulation has shown that the cooperative operation of neighbouring ATES systems can support more efficient spatial planning, by dynamically managing thermal interactions in response to uncertain operating conditions. An idealized case study with centralized ATES control thus showed significant improvements in the energy savings which could obtained per unit of allocated subsurface volume, without degrading the recovery performance of systems. This work will extend this cooperative approach for a realistic case study of ATES planning in the city of Utrecht, in the Netherlands. This case was previously simulated under different scenarios for individual ATES operation. The poster will compare these results with a cooperative case under which neighbouring systems can coordinate their operation to manage interactions. Furthermore, a cooperative game-theoretical framework will be

  13. Validation and cultural adaptation of a German version of the Physicians' Reactions to Uncertainty scales.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schneider, A.; Szecsenyi, J.; Barie, S.; Joest, K.; Rosemann, T.J.

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The aim of the study was to examine the validity of a translated and culturally adapted version of the Physicians' Reaction to Uncertainty scales (PRU) in primary care physicians. METHODS: In a structured process, the original questionnaire was translated, culturally adapted and assessed

  14. Uncertainty in soil physical data at river basin scale – a review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. van der Keur

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available For hydrological modelling studies at the river basin scale, decision makers need guidance in assessing the implications of uncertain data used by modellers as an input to modelling tools. Simulated solute transport through the unsaturated zone is associated with uncertainty due to spatial variability of soil hydraulic properties and derived hydraulic model parameters. In general for modelling studies at the river basin scale spatially available data at various scales must be aggregated to an appropriate scale. Estimating soil properties at unsampled points by means of geostatistical techniques require reliable information on the spatial structure of soil data. In this paper this information is assessed by reviewing current developments in the field of soil physical data uncertainty and adopting a classification system. Then spatial variability and structure is inspected by reviewing experimental work on determining spatial length scales for soil physical (and soil chemical data. Available literature on spatial length scales for soil physical- and chemical properties is reviewed and their use in facilitating change of spatial support discussed. Uncertainty associated to the derivation of hydraulic properties from soil physical properties in this context is also discussed.

  15. High-pT Jet Energy Scale Uncertainty from single hadron response with the ATLAS detector

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(INSPIRE)INSPIRE-00534683; The ATLAS collaboration

    2016-01-01

    The jet energy scale (JES) uncertainty is estimated using different methods at different p$_\\text{T}$ ranges. In-situ techniques exploiting the p$_\\text{T}$ balance between a jet and a reference object (e.g. Z or gamma) are used at lower p$_\\text{T}$, but at very high p$_\\text{T}$ (> 2.5 TeV) there is not enough statistics for such in-situ techniques. A low JES uncertainty at high-p$_\\text{T}$ is important in several searches for new phenomena, e.g. the dijet resonance and angular searches. In the highest p$_\\text{T}$ range, the JES uncertainty is estimated using the calorimeter response to single hadrons. In this method, jets are treated as a superposition of energy depositions of single particles. An uncertainty is applied to each energy deposition belonging to the particles within the jet, and propagated to the final jet energy scale. This poster presents the JES uncertainty found with this method at sqrt(s) = 8 TeV and its developments.

  16. Evaluating uncertainties in regional climate simulations over South America at the seasonal scale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Solman, Silvina A. [Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera CIMA/CONICET-UBA, DCAO/FCEN, UMI-IFAECI/CNRS, CIMA-Ciudad Universitaria, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Pessacg, Natalia L. [Centro Nacional Patagonico (CONICET), Puerto Madryn, Chubut (Argentina)

    2012-07-15

    This work focuses on the evaluation of different sources of uncertainty affecting regional climate simulations over South America at the seasonal scale, using the MM5 model. The simulations cover a 3-month period for the austral spring season. Several four-member ensembles were performed in order to quantify the uncertainty due to: the internal variability; the definition of the regional model domain; the choice of physical parameterizations and the selection of physical parameters within a particular cumulus scheme. The uncertainty was measured by means of the spread among individual members of each ensemble during the integration period. Results show that the internal variability, triggered by differences in the initial conditions, represents the lowest level of uncertainty for every variable analyzed. The geographic distribution of the spread among ensemble members depends on the variable: for precipitation and temperature the largest spread is found over tropical South America while for the mean sea level pressure the largest spread is located over the southeastern Atlantic Ocean, where large synoptic-scale activity occurs. Using nudging techniques to ingest the boundary conditions reduces dramatically the internal variability. The uncertainty due to the domain choice displays a similar spatial pattern compared with the internal variability, except for the mean sea level pressure field, though its magnitude is larger all over the model domain for every variable. The largest spread among ensemble members is found for the ensemble in which different combinations of physical parameterizations are selected. The perturbed physics ensemble produces a level of uncertainty slightly larger than the internal variability. This study suggests that no matter what the source of uncertainty is, the geographical distribution of the spread among members of the ensembles is invariant, particularly for precipitation and temperature. (orig.)

  17. Large-Scale Transport Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis: Distributed Sources in Complex Hydrogeologic Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sig Drellack, Lance Prothro

    2007-01-01

    simulations are challenged by the distributed sources in each of the Corrective Action Units, by complex mass transfer processes, and by the size and complexity of the field-scale flow models. An efficient methodology utilizing particle tracking results and convolution integrals provides in situ concentrations appropriate for Monte Carlo analysis. Uncertainty in source releases and transport parameters including effective porosity, fracture apertures and spacing, matrix diffusion coefficients, sorption coefficients, and colloid load and mobility are considered. With the distributions of input uncertainties and output plume volumes, global analysis methods including stepwise regression, contingency table analysis, and classification tree analysis are used to develop sensitivity rankings of parameter uncertainties for each model considered, thus assisting a variety of decisions

  18. Multi-Scale Fusion of Information for Uncertainty Quantification and Management in Large-Scale Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-12-02

    of completely new nonlinear Malliavin calculus . This type of calculus is important for the analysis and simulation of stationary and/or “causal...been limited by the fact that it requires the solution of an optimization problem with noisy gradients . When using deterministic optimization schemes...under uncertainty. We tested new developments on nonlinear Malliavin calculus , combining reduced basis methods with ANOVA, model validation, on

  19. Deterministic sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for large-scale computer models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worley, B.A.; Pin, F.G.; Oblow, E.M.; Maerker, R.E.; Horwedel, J.E.; Wright, R.Q.

    1988-01-01

    This paper presents a comprehensive approach to sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of large-scale computer models that is analytic (deterministic) in principle and that is firmly based on the model equations. The theory and application of two systems based upon computer calculus, GRESS and ADGEN, are discussed relative to their role in calculating model derivatives and sensitivities without a prohibitive initial manpower investment. Storage and computational requirements for these two systems are compared for a gradient-enhanced version of the PRESTO-II computer model. A Deterministic Uncertainty Analysis (DUA) method that retains the characteristics of analytically computing result uncertainties based upon parameter probability distributions is then introduced and results from recent studies are shown. 29 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab

  20. Jet energy scale uncertainty correlations between ATLAS and CMS at 8 TeV

    CERN Document Server

    CMS and ATLAS Collaborations

    2015-01-01

    An evaluation of the correlations between ATLAS and CMS jet energy scale uncertainties is presented for $\\sqrt{s}=8$ TeV $pp$ collisions recorded in 2012. Uncertainties within each experiment are grouped based on the general type of systematic effect they are intended to cover and the means by which they are derived. Inter-experimental correlation value ranges are established for each corresponding group of uncertainty components. This correlation range is intended to cover the possible correlation values when performing combinations between the two experiments, where the most conservative value obtained from scanning over the correlation range should be used for the final combined measurement. The procedure described here is primarily aimed at single-observable analyses, and has limitations when applied to multi-observable measurements.

  1. Radar subpixel-scale rainfall variability and uncertainty: lessons learned from observations of a dense rain-gauge network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Peleg

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Runoff and flash flood generation are very sensitive to rainfall's spatial and temporal variability. The increasing use of radar and satellite data in hydrological applications, due to the sparse distribution of rain gauges over most catchments worldwide, requires furthering our knowledge of the uncertainties of these data. In 2011, a new super-dense network of rain gauges containing 14 stations, each with two side-by-side gauges, was installed within a 4 km2 study area near Kibbutz Galed in northern Israel. This network was established for a detailed exploration of the uncertainties and errors regarding rainfall variability within a common pixel size of data obtained from remote sensing systems for timescales of 1 min to daily. In this paper, we present the analysis of the first year's record collected from this network and from the Shacham weather radar, located 63 km from the study area. The gauge–rainfall spatial correlation and uncertainty were examined along with the estimated radar error. The nugget parameter of the inter-gauge rainfall correlations was high (0.92 on the 1 min scale and increased as the timescale increased. The variance reduction factor (VRF, representing the uncertainty from averaging a number of rain stations per pixel, ranged from 1.6% for the 1 min timescale to 0.07% for the daily scale. It was also found that at least three rain stations are needed to adequately represent the rainfall (VRF < 5% on a typical radar pixel scale. The difference between radar and rain gauge rainfall was mainly attributed to radar estimation errors, while the gauge sampling error contributed up to 20% to the total difference. The ratio of radar rainfall to gauge-areal-averaged rainfall, expressed by the error distribution scatter parameter, decreased from 5.27 dB for 3 min timescale to 3.21 dB for the daily scale. The analysis of the radar errors and uncertainties suggest that a temporal scale of at least 10 min should be used for

  2. The method of belief scales as a means for dealing with uncertainty in tough regulatory decisions.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pilch, Martin M.

    2005-10-01

    Modeling and simulation is playing an increasing role in supporting tough regulatory decisions, which are typically characterized by variabilities and uncertainties in the scenarios, input conditions, failure criteria, model parameters, and even model form. Variability exists when there is a statistically significant database that is fully relevant to the application. Uncertainty, on the other hand, is characterized by some degree of ignorance. A simple algebraic problem was used to illustrate how various risk methodologies address variability and uncertainty in a regulatory context. These traditional risk methodologies include probabilistic methods (including frequensic and Bayesian perspectives) and second-order methods where variabilities and uncertainties are treated separately. Representing uncertainties with (subjective) probability distributions and using probabilistic methods to propagate subjective distributions can lead to results that are not logically consistent with available knowledge and that may not be conservative. The Method of Belief Scales (MBS) is developed as a means to logically aggregate uncertain input information and to propagate that information through the model to a set of results that are scrutable, easily interpretable by the nonexpert, and logically consistent with the available input information. The MBS, particularly in conjunction with sensitivity analyses, has the potential to be more computationally efficient than other risk methodologies. The regulatory language must be tailored to the specific risk methodology if ambiguity and conflict are to be avoided.

  3. Impact of measurement uncertainty from experimental load distribution factors on bridge load rating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gangone, Michael V.; Whelan, Matthew J.

    2018-03-01

    Load rating and testing of highway bridges is important in determining the capacity of the structure. Experimental load rating utilizes strain transducers placed at critical locations of the superstructure to measure normal strains. These strains are then used in computing diagnostic performance measures (neutral axis of bending, load distribution factor) and ultimately a load rating. However, it has been shown that experimentally obtained strain measurements contain uncertainties associated with the accuracy and precision of the sensor and sensing system. These uncertainties propagate through to the diagnostic indicators that in turn transmit into the load rating calculation. This paper will analyze the effect that measurement uncertainties have on the experimental load rating results of a 3 span multi-girder/stringer steel and concrete bridge. The focus of this paper will be limited to the uncertainty associated with the experimental distribution factor estimate. For the testing discussed, strain readings were gathered at the midspan of each span of both exterior girders and the center girder. Test vehicles of known weight were positioned at specified locations on each span to generate maximum strain response for each of the five girders. The strain uncertainties were used in conjunction with a propagation formula developed by the authors to determine the standard uncertainty in the distribution factor estimates. This distribution factor uncertainty is then introduced into the load rating computation to determine the possible range of the load rating. The results show the importance of understanding measurement uncertainty in experimental load testing.

  4. Evaluating Uncertainties in Sap Flux Scaled Estimates of Forest Transpiration, Canopy Conductance and Photosynthesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, E. J.; Bell, D. M.; Clark, J. S.; Kim, H.; Oren, R.

    2009-12-01

    Thermal dissipation probes (TDPs) are a common method for estimating forest transpiration and canopy conductance from sap flux rates in trees, but their implementation is plagued by uncertainties arising from missing data and variability in the diameter and canopy position of trees, as well as sapwood conductivity within individual trees. Uncertainties in estimates of canopy conductance also translate into uncertainties in carbon assimilation in models such as the Canopy Conductance Constrained Carbon Assimilation (4CA) model that combine physiological and environmental data to estimate photosynthetic rates. We developed a method to propagate these uncertainties in the scaling and imputation of TDP data to estimates of canopy transpiration and conductance using a state-space Jarvis-type conductance model in a hierarchical Bayesian framework. This presentation will focus on the impact of these uncertainties on estimates of water and carbon fluxes using 4CA and data from the Duke Free Air Carbon Enrichment (FACE) project, which incorporates both elevated carbon dioxide and soil nitrogen treatments. We will also address the response of canopy conductance to vapor pressure deficit, incident radiation and soil moisture, as well as the effect of treatment-related stand structure differences in scaling TDP measurements. Preliminary results indicate that in 2006, a year of normal precipitation (1127 mm), canopy transpiration increased in elevated carbon dioxide ~8% on a ground area basis. In 2007, a year with a pronounced drought (800 mm precipitation), this increase was only present in the combined carbon dioxide and fertilization treatment. The seasonal dynamics of water and carbon fluxes will be discussed in detail.

  5. Potential for improved radiation thermometry measurement uncertainty through implementing a primary scale in an industrial laboratory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willmott, Jon R.; Lowe, David; Broughton, Mick; White, Ben S.; Machin, Graham

    2016-09-01

    A primary temperature scale requires realising a unit in terms of its definition. For high temperature radiation thermometry in terms of the International Temperature Scale of 1990 this means extrapolating from the signal measured at the freezing temperature of gold, silver or copper using Planck’s radiation law. The difficulty in doing this means that primary scales above 1000 °C require specialist equipment and careful characterisation in order to achieve the extrapolation with sufficient accuracy. As such, maintenance of the scale at high temperatures is usually only practicable for National Metrology Institutes, and calibration laboratories have to rely on a scale calibrated against transfer standards. At lower temperatures it is practicable for an industrial calibration laboratory to have its own primary temperature scale, which reduces the number of steps between the primary scale and end user. Proposed changes to the SI that will introduce internationally accepted high temperature reference standards might make it practicable to have a primary high temperature scale in a calibration laboratory. In this study such a scale was established by calibrating radiation thermometers directly to high temperature reference standards. The possible reduction in uncertainty to an end user as a result of the reduced calibration chain was evaluated.

  6. Uncertainty of relative sensitivity factors in glow discharge mass spectrometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meija, Juris; Methven, Brad; Sturgeon, Ralph E.

    2017-10-01

    The concept of the relative sensitivity factors required for the correction of the measured ion beam ratios in pin-cell glow discharge mass spectrometry is examined in detail. We propose a data-driven model for predicting the relative response factors, which relies on a non-linear least squares adjustment and analyte/matrix interchangeability phenomena. The model provides a self-consistent set of response factors for any analyte/matrix combination of any element that appears as either an analyte or matrix in at least one known response factor.

  7. Extreme-Scale Bayesian Inference for Uncertainty Quantification of Complex Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Biros, George [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States)

    2018-01-12

    Uncertainty quantification (UQ)—that is, quantifying uncertainties in complex mathematical models and their large-scale computational implementations—is widely viewed as one of the outstanding challenges facing the field of CS&E over the coming decade. The EUREKA project set to address the most difficult class of UQ problems: those for which both the underlying PDE model as well as the uncertain parameters are of extreme scale. In the project we worked on these extreme-scale challenges in the following four areas: 1. Scalable parallel algorithms for sampling and characterizing the posterior distribution that exploit the structure of the underlying PDEs and parameter-to-observable map. These include structure-exploiting versions of the randomized maximum likelihood method, which aims to overcome the intractability of employing conventional MCMC methods for solving extreme-scale Bayesian inversion problems by appealing to and adapting ideas from large-scale PDE-constrained optimization, which have been very successful at exploring high-dimensional spaces. 2. Scalable parallel algorithms for construction of prior and likelihood functions based on learning methods and non-parametric density estimation. Constructing problem-specific priors remains a critical challenge in Bayesian inference, and more so in high dimensions. Another challenge is construction of likelihood functions that capture unmodeled couplings between observations and parameters. We will create parallel algorithms for non-parametric density estimation using high dimensional N-body methods and combine them with supervised learning techniques for the construction of priors and likelihood functions. 3. Bayesian inadequacy models, which augment physics models with stochastic models that represent their imperfections. The success of the Bayesian inference framework depends on the ability to represent the uncertainty due to imperfections of the mathematical model of the phenomena of interest. This is a

  8. Quantification of structural uncertainties in multi-scale models; case study of the Lublin Basin, Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Małolepszy, Zbigniew; Szynkaruk, Ewa

    2015-04-01

    The multiscale static modeling of regional structure of the Lublin Basin is carried on in the Polish Geological Institute, in accordance with principles of integrated 3D geological modelling. The model is based on all available geospatial data from Polish digital databases and analogue archives. Mapped regional structure covers the area of 260x80 km located between Warsaw and Polish-Ukrainian border, along NW-SE-trending margin of the East European Craton. Within the basin, the Paleozoic beds with coalbearing Carboniferous and older formations containing hydrocarbons and unconventional prospects are covered unconformably by Permo-Mesozoic and younger rocks. Vertical extent of the regional model is set from topographic surface to 6000 m ssl and at the bottom includes some Proterozoic crystalline formations of the craton. The project focuses on internal consistency of the models built at different scales - from basin (small) scale to field-scale (large-scale). The models, nested in the common structural framework, are being constructed with regional geological knowledge, ensuring smooth transition in the 3D model resolution and amount of geological detail. Major challenge of the multiscale approach to subsurface modelling is the assessment and consistent quantification of various types of geological uncertainties tied to those various scale sub-models. Decreasing amount of information with depth and, particularly, very limited data collected below exploration targets, as well as accuracy and quality of data, all have the most critical impact on the modelled structure. In deeper levels of the Lublin Basin model, seismic interpretation of 2D surveys is sparsely tied to well data. Therefore time-to-depth conversion carries one of the major uncertainties in the modeling of structures, especially below 3000 m ssl. Furthermore, as all models at different scales are based on the same dataset, we must deal with different levels of generalization of geological structures. The

  9. Crossing Science-Policy-Societal Boundaries to Reduce Scientific and Institutional Uncertainty in Small-Scale Fisheries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutton, Abigail M.; Rudd, Murray A.

    2016-10-01

    The governance of small-scale fisheries (SSF) is challenging due to the uncertainty, complexity, and interconnectedness of social, political, ecological, and economical processes. Conventional SSF management has focused on a centralized and top-down approach. A major criticism of conventional management is the over-reliance on `expert science' to guide decision-making and poor consideration of fishers' contextually rich knowledge. That is thought to exacerbate the already low governance potential of SSF. Integrating scientific knowledge with fishers' knowledge is increasingly popular and is often assumed to help reduce levels of biophysical and institutional uncertainties. Many projects aimed at encouraging knowledge integration have, however, been unsuccessful. Our objective in this research was to assess factors that influence knowledge integration and the uptake of integrated knowledge into policy-making. We report results from 54 semi-structured interviews with SSF researchers and practitioners from around the globe. Our analysis is framed in terms of scientific credibility, societal legitimacy, and policy saliency, and we discuss cases that have been partially or fully successful in reducing uncertainty via push-and-pull-oriented boundary crossing initiatives. Our findings suggest that two important factors affect the science-policy-societal boundary: a lack of consensus among stakeholders about what constitutes credible knowledge and institutional uncertainty resulting from shifting policies and leadership change. A lack of training for scientific leaders and an apparent `shelf-life' for community organizations highlight the importance of ongoing institutional support for knowledge integration projects. Institutional support may be enhanced through such investments, such as capacity building and specialized platforms for knowledge integration.

  10. Crossing Science-Policy-Societal Boundaries to Reduce Scientific and Institutional Uncertainty in Small-Scale Fisheries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutton, Abigail M; Rudd, Murray A

    2016-10-01

    The governance of small-scale fisheries (SSF) is challenging due to the uncertainty, complexity, and interconnectedness of social, political, ecological, and economical processes. Conventional SSF management has focused on a centralized and top-down approach. A major criticism of conventional management is the over-reliance on 'expert science' to guide decision-making and poor consideration of fishers' contextually rich knowledge. That is thought to exacerbate the already low governance potential of SSF. Integrating scientific knowledge with fishers' knowledge is increasingly popular and is often assumed to help reduce levels of biophysical and institutional uncertainties. Many projects aimed at encouraging knowledge integration have, however, been unsuccessful. Our objective in this research was to assess factors that influence knowledge integration and the uptake of integrated knowledge into policy-making. We report results from 54 semi-structured interviews with SSF researchers and practitioners from around the globe. Our analysis is framed in terms of scientific credibility, societal legitimacy, and policy saliency, and we discuss cases that have been partially or fully successful in reducing uncertainty via push-and-pull-oriented boundary crossing initiatives. Our findings suggest that two important factors affect the science-policy-societal boundary: a lack of consensus among stakeholders about what constitutes credible knowledge and institutional uncertainty resulting from shifting policies and leadership change. A lack of training for scientific leaders and an apparent 'shelf-life' for community organizations highlight the importance of ongoing institutional support for knowledge integration projects. Institutional support may be enhanced through such investments, such as capacity building and specialized platforms for knowledge integration.

  11. Sustainable water management under future uncertainty with eco-engineering decision scaling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poff, N. Leroy; Brown, Casey M.; Grantham, Theodore E.; Matthews, John H.; Palmer, Margaret A.; Spence, Caitlin M.; Wilby, Robert L.; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Mendoza, Guillermo F.; Dominique, Kathleen C.; Baeza, Andres

    2016-01-01

    Managing freshwater resources sustainably under future climatic and hydrological uncertainty poses novel challenges. Rehabilitation of ageing infrastructure and construction of new dams are widely viewed as solutions to diminish climate risk, but attaining the broad goal of freshwater sustainability will require expansion of the prevailing water resources management paradigm beyond narrow economic criteria to include socially valued ecosystem functions and services. We introduce a new decision framework, eco-engineering decision scaling (EEDS), that explicitly and quantitatively explores trade-offs in stakeholder-defined engineering and ecological performance metrics across a range of possible management actions under unknown future hydrological and climate states. We illustrate its potential application through a hypothetical case study of the Iowa River, USA. EEDS holds promise as a powerful framework for operationalizing freshwater sustainability under future hydrological uncertainty by fostering collaboration across historically conflicting perspectives of water resource engineering and river conservation ecology to design and operate water infrastructure for social and environmental benefits.

  12. Sustainable water management under future uncertainty with eco-engineering decision scaling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poff, N LeRoy; Brown, Casey M; Grantham, Theodore E.; Matthews, John H; Palmer, Margaret A.; Spence, Caitlin M; Wilby, Robert L.; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Mendoza, Guillermo F; Dominique, Kathleen C; Baeza, Andres

    2015-01-01

    Managing freshwater resources sustainably under future climatic and hydrological uncertainty poses novel challenges. Rehabilitation of ageing infrastructure and construction of new dams are widely viewed as solutions to diminish climate risk, but attaining the broad goal of freshwater sustainability will require expansion of the prevailing water resources management paradigm beyond narrow economic criteria to include socially valued ecosystem functions and services. We introduce a new decision framework, eco-engineering decision scaling (EEDS), that explicitly and quantitatively explores trade-offs in stakeholder-defined engineering and ecological performance metrics across a range of possible management actions under unknown future hydrological and climate states. We illustrate its potential application through a hypothetical case study of the Iowa River, USA. EEDS holds promise as a powerful framework for operationalizing freshwater sustainability under future hydrological uncertainty by fostering collaboration across historically conflicting perspectives of water resource engineering and river conservation ecology to design and operate water infrastructure for social and environmental benefits.

  13. Accounting for uncertainty factors in biodiversity impact assessment: lessons from a case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geneletti, D.; Beinat, E.; Chung, C.F.; Fabbri, A.G.; Scholten, H.J.

    2003-01-01

    For an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) to effectively contribute to decision-making, it must include one crucial step: the estimation of the uncertainty factors affecting the impact evaluation and of their effect on the evaluation results. Knowledge of the uncertainties better orients the strategy of the decision-makers and underlines the most critical data or methodological steps of the procedure. Accounting for uncertainty factors is particularly relevant when dealing with ecological impacts, whose forecasts are typically affected by a high degree of simplification. By means of a case study dealing with the evaluation of road alternatives, this paper explores and discusses the main uncertainties that are related to the typical stages of a biodiversity impact assessment: uncertainty in the data that are used, in the methodologies that are applied, and in the value judgments provided by the experts. Subsequently, the effects of such uncertainty factors are tracked back to the result of the evaluation, i.e., to the relative performance of the project alternatives under consideration. This allows to test the sensitivity of the results, and consequently to provide a more informative ranking of the alternatives. The papers concludes by discussing the added-value for decision-making provided by uncertainty analysis within EIA

  14. Uncertainty of the thyroid dose conversion factor for inhalation intakes of 131I and its parametric uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harvey, R. P.; Hamby, D. M.; Palmer, T. S.

    2006-01-01

    Inhalation exposures of 131 I may occur in the physical form of a gas as well as a particulate. The physical characteristics pertaining to these different types of releases influence the intake and subsequent dose to an exposed individual. The thyroid dose received is influenced by the route through which 131 I enters the body and its subsequent clearance, absorption and movement throughout the body. The radioactive iodine taken up in the gas-exchange tissues is cleared to other tissues or absorbed into the bloodstream of the individual and transferred to other organs. Iodine in the circulatory system is then taken up by the thyroid gland with resulting dose to that tissue. The magnitude of and uncertainty in the thyroid dose is important to the assessment of individuals exposed to airborne releases of radioiodine. Age- and gender-specific modelling parameters have resulted in significant differences between gas uptake, particulate deposition and inhalation dose conversion factors for each age and gender group. Inhalation dose conversion factors and their inherent uncertainty are markedly affected by the type of iodine intake. These differences are expected due to the modelling of particulate deposition versus uptake of gas in the respiratory tract. Inhalation dose estimates via iodine gases are very similar and separate classifications may not be necessarily based on this assessment. (authors)

  15. Significant uncertainty in global scale hydrological modeling from precipitation data errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sperna Weiland, Frederiek C.; Vrugt, Jasper A.; van Beek, Rens (L.) P. H.; Weerts, Albrecht H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

    2015-10-01

    In the past decades significant progress has been made in the fitting of hydrologic models to data. Most of this work has focused on simple, CPU-efficient, lumped hydrologic models using discharge, water table depth, soil moisture, or tracer data from relatively small river basins. In this paper, we focus on large-scale hydrologic modeling and analyze the effect of parameter and rainfall data uncertainty on simulated discharge dynamics with the global hydrologic model PCR-GLOBWB. We use three rainfall data products; the CFSR reanalysis, the ERA-Interim reanalysis, and a combined ERA-40 reanalysis and CRU dataset. Parameter uncertainty is derived from Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) using monthly discharge data from five of the largest river systems in the world. Our results demonstrate that the default parameterization of PCR-GLOBWB, derived from global datasets, can be improved by calibrating the model against monthly discharge observations. Yet, it is difficult to find a single parameterization of PCR-GLOBWB that works well for all of the five river basins considered herein and shows consistent performance during both the calibration and evaluation period. Still there may be possibilities for regionalization based on catchment similarities. Our simulations illustrate that parameter uncertainty constitutes only a minor part of predictive uncertainty. Thus, the apparent dichotomy between simulations of global-scale hydrologic behavior and actual data cannot be resolved by simply increasing the model complexity of PCR-GLOBWB and resolving sub-grid processes. Instead, it would be more productive to improve the characterization of global rainfall amounts at spatial resolutions of 0.5° and smaller.

  16. Determining the minimal length scale of the generalized uncertainty principle from the entropy-area relationship

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Wontae; Oh, John J.

    2008-01-01

    We derive the formula of the black hole entropy with a minimal length of the Planck size by counting quantum modes of scalar fields in the vicinity of the black hole horizon, taking into account the generalized uncertainty principle (GUP). This formula is applied to some intriguing examples of black holes - the Schwarzschild black hole, the Reissner-Nordstrom black hole, and the magnetically charged dilatonic black hole. As a result, it is shown that the GUP parameter can be determined by imposing the black hole entropy-area relationship, which has a Planck length scale and a universal form within the near-horizon expansion

  17. Evaluation of measurement uncertainty for purity of a monoterpenic acid by small-scale coulometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norte, L. C.; de Carvalho, E. M.; Tappin, M. R. R.; Borges, P. P.

    2018-03-01

    Purity of the perylic acid (HPe) which is a monoterpenic acid from natural product (NP) with anti-inflammatory and anticancer properties was analyzed by small-scale coulometry (SSC), due to the low availability of HPe on the pharmaceutic market and its high cost. This work aims to present the evaluation of the measurements uncertainty from the purity of HPe by using SSC. Coulometric mean of purity obtained from 5 replicates resulted in 94.23% ± 0.88% (k = 2.06, for an approximately 95% confidence level). These studies aim in the future to develop the production of certified reference materials from NPs.

  18. Deterministic methods for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis in large-scale computer models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worley, B.A.; Oblow, E.M.; Pin, F.G.; Maerker, R.E.; Horwedel, J.E.; Wright, R.Q.; Lucius, J.L.

    1987-01-01

    The fields of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis are dominated by statistical techniques when large-scale modeling codes are being analyzed. This paper reports on the development and availability of two systems, GRESS and ADGEN, that make use of computer calculus compilers to automate the implementation of deterministic sensitivity analysis capability into existing computer models. This automation removes the traditional limitation of deterministic sensitivity methods. The paper describes a deterministic uncertainty analysis method (DUA) that uses derivative information as a basis to propagate parameter probability distributions to obtain result probability distributions. The paper demonstrates the deterministic approach to sensitivity and uncertainty analysis as applied to a sample problem that models the flow of water through a borehole. The sample problem is used as a basis to compare the cumulative distribution function of the flow rate as calculated by the standard statistical methods and the DUA method. The DUA method gives a more accurate result based upon only two model executions compared to fifty executions in the statistical case

  19. Application of code scaling applicability and uncertainty methodology to the large break loss of coolant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Young, M.Y.; Bajorek, S.M.; Nissley, M.E.

    1998-01-01

    In the late 1980s, after completion of an extensive research program, the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) amended its regulations (10CFR50.46) to allow the use of realistic physical models to analyze the loss of coolant accident (LOCA) in a light water reactors. Prior to this time, the evaluation of this accident was subject to a prescriptive set of rules (appendix K of the regulations) requiring conservative models and assumptions to be applied simultaneously, leading to very pessimistic estimates of the impact of this accident on the reactor core. The rule change therefore promised to provide significant benefits to owners of power reactors, allowing them to increase output. In response to the rule change, a method called code scaling, applicability and uncertainty (CSAU) was developed to apply realistic methods, while properly taking into account data uncertainty, uncertainty in physical modeling and plant variability. The method was claimed to be structured, traceable, and practical, but was met with some criticism when first demonstrated. In 1996, the USNRC approved a methodology, based on CSAU, developed by a group led by Westinghouse. The lessons learned in this application of CSAU will be summarized. Some of the issues raised concerning the validity and completeness of the CSAU methodology will also be discussed. (orig.)

  20. Evaluation and uncertainty analysis of regional-scale CLM4.5 net carbon flux estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Post, Hanna; Hendricks Franssen, Harrie-Jan; Han, Xujun; Baatz, Roland; Montzka, Carsten; Schmidt, Marius; Vereecken, Harry

    2018-01-01

    Modeling net ecosystem exchange (NEE) at the regional scale with land surface models (LSMs) is relevant for the estimation of regional carbon balances, but studies on it are very limited. Furthermore, it is essential to better understand and quantify the uncertainty of LSMs in order to improve them. An important key variable in this respect is the prognostic leaf area index (LAI), which is very sensitive to forcing data and strongly affects the modeled NEE. We applied the Community Land Model (CLM4.5-BGC) to the Rur catchment in western Germany and compared estimated and default ecological key parameters for modeling carbon fluxes and LAI. The parameter estimates were previously estimated with the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach DREAM(zs) for four of the most widespread plant functional types in the catchment. It was found that the catchment-scale annual NEE was strongly positive with default parameter values but negative (and closer to observations) with the estimated values. Thus, the estimation of CLM parameters with local NEE observations can be highly relevant when determining regional carbon balances. To obtain a more comprehensive picture of model uncertainty, CLM ensembles were set up with perturbed meteorological input and uncertain initial states in addition to uncertain parameters. C3 grass and C3 crops were particularly sensitive to the perturbed meteorological input, which resulted in a strong increase in the standard deviation of the annual NEE sum (σ ∑ NEE) for the different ensemble members from ˜ 2 to 3 g C m-2 yr-1 (with uncertain parameters) to ˜ 45 g C m-2 yr-1 (C3 grass) and ˜ 75 g C m-2 yr-1 (C3 crops) with perturbed forcings. This increase in uncertainty is related to the impact of the meteorological forcings on leaf onset and senescence, and enhanced/reduced drought stress related to perturbation of precipitation. The NEE uncertainty for the forest plant functional type (PFT) was considerably lower (σ ∑ NEE ˜ 4.0-13.5 g C

  1. Reducing uncertainty in Climate Response Time Scale by Bayesian Analysis of the 8.2 ka event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenz, A.; Held, H.; Bauer, E.; Schneider von Deimling, T.

    2009-04-01

    We analyze the possibility of uncertainty reduction in Climate Response Time Scale by utilizing Greenland ice-core data that contain the 8.2 ka event within a Bayesian model-data intercomparison with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER-2.3. Within a stochastic version of the model it has been possible to mimic the 8.2 ka event within a plausible experimental setting and with relatively good accuracy considering the timing of the event in comparison to other modeling exercises [1]. The simulation of the centennial cold event is effectively determined by the oceanic cooling rate which depends largely on the ocean diffusivity described by diffusion coefficients of relatively wide uncertainty ranges. The idea now is to discriminate between the different values of diffusivities according to their likelihood to rightly represent the duration of the 8.2 ka event and thus to exploit the paleo data to constrain uncertainty in model parameters in analogue to [2]. Implementing this inverse Bayesian Analysis with this model the technical difficulty arises to establish the related likelihood numerically in addition to the uncertain model parameters: While mainstream uncertainty analyses can assume a quasi-Gaussian shape of likelihood, with weather fluctuating around a long term mean, the 8.2 ka event as a highly nonlinear effect precludes such an a priori assumption. As a result of this study [3] the Bayesian Analysis showed a reduction of uncertainty in vertical ocean diffusivity parameters of factor 2 compared to prior knowledge. This learning effect on the model parameters is propagated to other model outputs of interest; e.g. the inverse ocean heat capacity, which is important for the dominant time scale of climate response to anthropogenic forcing which, in combination with climate sensitivity, strongly influences the climate systems reaction for the near- and medium-term future. 1 References [1] E. Bauer, A. Ganopolski, M. Montoya: Simulation of the

  2. Local scale multiple quantitative risk assessment and uncertainty evaluation in a densely urbanised area (Brescia, Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Lari

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The study of the interactions between natural and anthropogenic risks is necessary for quantitative risk assessment in areas affected by active natural processes, high population density and strong economic activities.

    We present a multiple quantitative risk assessment on a 420 km2 high risk area (Brescia and surroundings, Lombardy, Northern Italy, for flood, seismic and industrial accident scenarios. Expected economic annual losses are quantified for each scenario and annual exceedance probability-loss curves are calculated. Uncertainty on the input variables is propagated by means of three different methodologies: Monte-Carlo-Simulation, First Order Second Moment, and point estimate.

    Expected losses calculated by means of the three approaches show similar values for the whole study area, about 64 000 000 € for earthquakes, about 10 000 000 € for floods, and about 3000 € for industrial accidents. Locally, expected losses assume quite different values if calculated with the three different approaches, with differences up to 19%.

    The uncertainties on the expected losses and their propagation, performed with the three methods, are compared and discussed in the paper. In some cases, uncertainty reaches significant values (up to almost 50% of the expected loss. This underlines the necessity of including uncertainty in quantitative risk assessment, especially when it is used as a support for territorial planning and decision making. The method is developed thinking at a possible application at a regional-national scale, on the basis of data available in Italy over the national territory.

  3. Managing Risk and Uncertainty in Large-Scale University Research Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Sharlissa; Shangraw, R. F., Jr.

    2011-01-01

    Both publicly and privately funded research projects managed by universities are growing in size and scope. Complex, large-scale projects (over $50 million) pose new management challenges and risks for universities. This paper explores the relationship between project success and a variety of factors in large-scale university projects. First, we…

  4. Landscape Change in the Southern Piedmont: Challenges, Solutions, and Uncertainty Across Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael J. Conroy

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available The southern Piedmont of the southeastern United States epitomizes the complex and seemingly intractable problems and hard decisions that result from uncontrolled urban and suburban sprawl. Here we consider three recurrent themes in complicated problems involving complex systems: (1 scale dependencies and cross-scale, often nonlinear relationships; (2 resilience, in particular the potential for complex systems to move to alternate stable states with decreased ecological and/or economic value; and (3 uncertainty in the ability to understand and predict outcomes, perhaps particularly those that occur as a result of human impacts. We consider these issues in the context of landscape-level decision making, using as an example water resources and lotic systems in the Piedmont region of the southeastern United States.

  5. Landscape change in the Southern Piedmont: Challenges, solutions and uncertainty across scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conroy, M.J.; Allen, Craig R.; Peterson, J.T.; Pritchard, L.; Moore, C.T.

    2003-01-01

    The southern Piedmont of the southeastern United States epitomizes the complex and seemingly intractable problems and hard decisions that result from uncontrolled urban and suburban sprawl. Here we consider three recurrent themes in complicated problems involving complex systems: (1) scale dependencies and cross-scale, often nonlinear relationships; (2) resilience, in particular the potential for complex systems to move to alternate stable states with decreased ecological and/or economic value; and (3) uncertainty in the ability to understand and predict outcomes, perhaps particularly those that occur as a result of human impacts. We consider these issues in the context of landscape-level decision making, using as an example water resources and lotic systems in the Piedmont region of the southeastern United States. Copyright ?? 2003 by the author(s). Published here under licence by The Resilience Alliance.

  6. Sources of uncertainty in hydrological climate impact assessment: a cross-scale study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hattermann, F. F.; Vetter, T.; Breuer, L.; Su, Buda; Daggupati, P.; Donnelly, C.; Fekete, B.; Flörke, F.; Gosling, S. N.; Hoffmann, P.; Liersch, S.; Masaki, Y.; Motovilov, Y.; Müller, C.; Samaniego, L.; Stacke, T.; Wada, Y.; Yang, T.; Krysnaova, V.

    2018-01-01

    Climate change impacts on water availability and hydrological extremes are major concerns as regards the Sustainable Development Goals. Impacts on hydrology are normally investigated as part of a modelling chain, in which climate projections from multiple climate models are used as inputs to multiple impact models, under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, which result in different amounts of global temperature rise. While the goal is generally to investigate the relevance of changes in climate for the water cycle, water resources or hydrological extremes, it is often the case that variations in other components of the model chain obscure the effect of climate scenario variation. This is particularly important when assessing the impacts of relatively lower magnitudes of global warming, such as those associated with the aspirational goals of the Paris Agreement. In our study, we use ANOVA (analyses of variance) to allocate and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in the hydrological impact modelling chain. In turn we determine the statistical significance of different sources of uncertainty. We achieve this by using a set of five climate models and up to 13 hydrological models, for nine large scale river basins across the globe, under four emissions scenarios. The impact variable we consider in our analysis is daily river discharge. We analyze overall water availability and flow regime, including seasonality, high flows and low flows. Scaling effects are investigated by separately looking at discharge generated by global and regional hydrological models respectively. Finally, we compare our results with other recently published studies. We find that small differences in global temperature rise associated with some emissions scenarios have mostly significant impacts on river discharge—however, climate model related uncertainty is so large that it obscures the sensitivity of the hydrological system.

  7. Scaling Factor Estimation Using an Optimized Mass Change Strategy, Part 1: Theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aenlle, Manuel López; Fernández, Pelayo Fernández; Brincker, Rune

    2007-01-01

    In natural input modal analysis, only un-scaled mode shapes can be obtained. The mass change method is, in many cases, the simplest way to estimate the scaling factors, which involves repeated modal testing after changing the mass in different points of the structure where the mode shapes are known....... The scaling factors are determined using the natural frequencies and mode shapes of both the modified and the unmodified structure. However, the uncertainty on the scaling factor estimation depends on the modal analysis and the mass change strategy (number, magnitude and location of the masses) used to modify...

  8. Estimation of Peaking Factor Uncertainty due to Manufacturing Tolerance using Statistical Sampling Method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Kyung Hoon; Park, Ho Jin; Lee, Chung Chan; Cho, Jin Young [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    The purpose of this paper is to study the effect on output parameters in the lattice physics calculation due to the last input uncertainty such as manufacturing deviations from nominal value for material composition and geometric dimensions. In a nuclear design and analysis, the lattice physics calculations are usually employed to generate lattice parameters for the nodal core simulation and pin power reconstruction. These lattice parameters which consist of homogenized few-group cross-sections, assembly discontinuity factors, and form-functions can be affected by input uncertainties which arise from three different sources: 1) multi-group cross-section uncertainties, 2) the uncertainties associated with methods and modeling approximations utilized in lattice physics codes, and 3) fuel/assembly manufacturing uncertainties. In this paper, data provided by the light water reactor (LWR) uncertainty analysis in modeling (UAM) benchmark has been used as the manufacturing uncertainties. First, the effect of each input parameter has been investigated through sensitivity calculations at the fuel assembly level. Then, uncertainty in prediction of peaking factor due to the most sensitive input parameter has been estimated using the statistical sampling method, often called the brute force method. For our analysis, the two-dimensional transport lattice code DeCART2D and its ENDF/B-VII.1 based 47-group library were used to perform the lattice physics calculation. Sensitivity calculations have been performed in order to study the influence of manufacturing tolerances on the lattice parameters. The manufacturing tolerance that has the largest influence on the k-inf is the fuel density. The second most sensitive parameter is the outer clad diameter.

  9. Uncertainty Evaluation of the SFR Subchannel Thermal-Hydraulic Modeling Using a Hot Channel Factors Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Sun Rock; Cho, Chung Ho; Kim, Sang Ji

    2011-01-01

    In an SFR core analysis, a hot channel factors (HCF) method is most commonly used to evaluate uncertainty. It was employed to the early design such as the CRBRP and IFR. In other ways, the improved thermal design procedure (ITDP) is able to calculate the overall uncertainty based on the Root Sum Square technique and sensitivity analyses of each design parameters. The Monte Carlo method (MCM) is also employed to estimate the uncertainties. In this method, all the input uncertainties are randomly sampled according to their probability density functions and the resulting distribution for the output quantity is analyzed. Since an uncertainty analysis is basically calculated from the temperature distribution in a subassembly, the core thermal-hydraulic modeling greatly affects the resulting uncertainty. At KAERI, the SLTHEN and MATRA-LMR codes have been utilized to analyze the SFR core thermal-hydraulics. The SLTHEN (steady-state LMR core thermal hydraulics analysis code based on the ENERGY model) code is a modified version of the SUPERENERGY2 code, which conducts a multi-assembly, steady state calculation based on a simplified ENERGY model. The detailed subchannel analysis code MATRA-LMR (Multichannel Analyzer for Steady-State and Transients in Rod Arrays for Liquid Metal Reactors), an LMR version of MATRA, was also developed specifically for the SFR core thermal-hydraulic analysis. This paper describes comparative studies for core thermal-hydraulic models. The subchannel analysis and a hot channel factors based uncertainty evaluation system is established to estimate the core thermofluidic uncertainties using the MATRA-LMR code and the results are compared to those of the SLTHEN code

  10. Quantification of variability and uncertainty in lawn and garden equipment NOx and total hydrocarbon emission factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frey, H Christopher; Bammi, Sachin

    2002-04-01

    Variability refers to real differences in emissions among multiple emission sources at any given time or over time for any individual emission source. Variability in emissions can be attributed to variation in fuel or feedstock composition, ambient temperature, design, maintenance, or operation. Uncertainty refers to lack of knowledge regarding the true value of emissions. Sources of uncertainty include small sample sizes, bias or imprecision in measurements, nonrepresentativeness, or lack of data. Quantitative methods for characterizing both variability and uncertainty are demonstrated and applied to case studies of emission factors for lawn and garden (L&G) equipment engines. Variability was quantified using empirical and parametric distributions. Bootstrap simulation was used to characterize confidence intervals for the fitted distributions. The 95% confidence intervals for the mean grams per brake horsepower/hour (g/hp-hr) emission factors for two-stroke engine total hydrocarbon (THC) and NOx emissions were from -30 to +41% and from -45 to +75%, respectively. The confidence intervals for four-stroke engines were from -33 to +46% for THCs and from -27 to +35% for NOx. These quantitative measures of uncertainty convey information regarding the quality of the emission factors and serve as a basis for calculation of uncertainty in emission inventories (EIs).

  11. Deterministic sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for large-scale computer models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worley, B.A.; Pin, F.G.; Oblow, E.M.; Maerker, R.E.; Horwedel, J.E.; Wright, R.Q.

    1988-01-01

    The fields of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis have traditionally been dominated by statistical techniques when large-scale modeling codes are being analyzed. These methods are able to estimate sensitivities, generate response surfaces, and estimate response probability distributions given the input parameter probability distributions. Because the statistical methods are computationally costly, they are usually applied only to problems with relatively small parameter sets. Deterministic methods, on the other hand, are very efficient and can handle large data sets, but generally require simpler models because of the considerable programming effort required for their implementation. The first part of this paper reports on the development and availability of two systems, GRESS and ADGEN, that make use of computer calculus compilers to automate the implementation of deterministic sensitivity analysis capability into existing computer models. This automation removes the traditional limitation of deterministic sensitivity methods. This second part of the paper describes a deterministic uncertainty analysis method (DUA) that uses derivative information as a basis to propagate parameter probability distributions to obtain result probability distributions. This paper is applicable to low-level radioactive waste disposal system performance assessment

  12. Single hadron response measurement and calorimeter jet energy scale uncertainty with the ATLAS detector at the LHC

    CERN Document Server

    Aad, Georges; Abdallah, Jalal; Abdelalim, Ahmed Ali; Abdesselam, Abdelouahab; Abdinov, Ovsat; Abi, Babak; Abolins, Maris; AbouZeid, Ossama; Abramowicz, Halina; Abreu, Henso; Acerbi, Emilio; Acharya, Bobby Samir; Adamczyk, Leszek; Adams, David; Addy, Tetteh; Adelman, Jahred; Aderholz, Michael; Adomeit, Stefanie; Adragna, Paolo; Adye, Tim; Aefsky, Scott; Aguilar-Saavedra, Juan Antonio; Aharrouche, Mohamed; Ahlen, Steven; Ahles, Florian; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Ahsan, Mahsana; Aielli, Giulio; Akdogan, Taylan; Åkesson, Torsten Paul Ake; Akimoto, Ginga; Akimov, Andrei; Akiyama, Kunihiro; Alam, Mohammad; Alam, Muhammad Aftab; Albert, Justin; Albrand, Solveig; Aleksa, Martin; Aleksandrov, Igor; Alessandria, Franco; Alexa, Calin; Alexander, Gideon; Alexandre, Gauthier; Alexopoulos, Theodoros; Alhroob, Muhammad; Aliev, Malik; Alimonti, Gianluca; Alison, John; Aliyev, Magsud; Allbrooke, Benedict; Allport, Phillip; Allwood-Spiers, Sarah; Almond, John; Aloisio, Alberto; Alon, Raz; Alonso, Alejandro; Alvarez Gonzalez, Barbara; Alviggi, Mariagrazia; Amako, Katsuya; Amaral, Pedro; Amelung, Christoph; Ammosov, Vladimir; Amorim, Antonio; Amorós, Gabriel; Amram, Nir; Anastopoulos, Christos; Ancu, Lucian Stefan; Andari, Nansi; Andeen, Timothy; Anders, Christoph Falk; Anders, Gabriel; Anderson, Kelby; Andreazza, Attilio; Andrei, George Victor; Andrieux, Marie-Laure; Anduaga, Xabier; Angerami, Aaron; Anghinolfi, Francis; Anisenkov, Alexey; Anjos, Nuno; Annovi, Alberto; Antonaki, Ariadni; Antonelli, Mario; Antonov, Alexey; Antos, Jaroslav; Anulli, Fabio; Aoun, Sahar; Aperio Bella, Ludovica; Apolle, Rudi; Arabidze, Giorgi; Aracena, Ignacio; Arai, Yasuo; Arce, Ayana; Arfaoui, Samir; Arguin, Jean-Francois; Arik, Engin; Arik, Metin; Armbruster, Aaron James; Arnaez, Olivier; Arnault, Christian; Artamonov, Andrei; Artoni, Giacomo; Arutinov, David; Asai, Shoji; Asfandiyarov, Ruslan; Ask, Stefan; Åsman, Barbro; Asquith, Lily; Assamagan, Ketevi; Astbury, Alan; Astvatsatourov, Anatoli; Aubert, Bernard; Auge, Etienne; Augsten, Kamil; Aurousseau, Mathieu; Avolio, Giuseppe; Avramidou, Rachel Maria; Axen, David; Ay, Cano; Azuelos, Georges; Azuma, Yuya; Baak, Max; Baccaglioni, Giuseppe; Bacci, Cesare; Bach, Andre; Bachacou, Henri; Bachas, Konstantinos; Backes, Moritz; Backhaus, Malte; Badescu, Elisabeta; Bagnaia, Paolo; Bahinipati, Seema; Bai, Yu; Bailey, David; Bain, Travis; Baines, John; Baker, Oliver Keith; Baker, Mark; Baker, Sarah; Banas, Elzbieta; Banerjee, Piyali; Banerjee, Swagato; Banfi, Danilo; Bangert, Andrea Michelle; Bansal, Vikas; Bansil, Hardeep Singh; Barak, Liron; Baranov, Sergei; Barashkou, Andrei; Barbaro Galtieri, Angela; Barber, Tom; Barberio, Elisabetta Luigia; Barberis, Dario; Barbero, Marlon; Bardin, Dmitri; Barillari, Teresa; Barisonzi, Marcello; Barklow, Timothy; Barlow, Nick; Barnett, Bruce; Barnett, Michael; Baroncelli, Antonio; Barone, Gaetano; Barr, Alan; Barreiro, Fernando; Barreiro Guimarães da Costa, João; Barrillon, Pierre; Bartoldus, Rainer; Barton, Adam Edward; Bartsch, Valeria; Bates, Richard; Batkova, Lucia; Batley, Richard; Battaglia, Andreas; Battistin, Michele; Bauer, Florian; Bawa, Harinder Singh; Beale, Steven; Beau, Tristan; Beauchemin, Pierre-Hugues; Beccherle, Roberto; Bechtle, Philip; Beck, Hans Peter; Becker, Sebastian; Beckingham, Matthew; Becks, Karl-Heinz; Beddall, Andrew; Beddall, Ayda; Bedikian, Sourpouhi; Bednyakov, Vadim; Bee, Christopher; Begel, Michael; Behar Harpaz, Silvia; Behera, Prafulla; Beimforde, Michael; Belanger-Champagne, Camille; Bell, Paul; Bell, William; Bella, Gideon; Bellagamba, Lorenzo; Bellina, Francesco; Bellomo, Massimiliano; Belloni, Alberto; Beloborodova, Olga; Belotskiy, Konstantin; Beltramello, Olga; Ben Ami, Sagi; Benary, Odette; Benchekroun, Driss; Benchouk, Chafik; Bendel, Markus; Benekos, Nektarios; Benhammou, Yan; Benhar Noccioli, Eleonora; Benitez Garcia, Jorge-Armando; Benjamin, Douglas; Benoit, Mathieu; Bensinger, James; Benslama, Kamal; Bentvelsen, Stan; Berge, David; Bergeaas Kuutmann, Elin; Berger, Nicolas; Berghaus, Frank; Berglund, Elina; Beringer, Jürg; Bernat, Pauline; Bernhard, Ralf; Bernius, Catrin; Berry, Tracey; Bertella, Claudia; Bertin, Antonio; Bertinelli, Francesco; Bertolucci, Federico; Besana, Maria Ilaria; Besson, Nathalie; Bethke, Siegfried; Bhimji, Wahid; Bianchi, Riccardo-Maria; Bianco, Michele; Biebel, Otmar; Bieniek, Stephen Paul; Bierwagen, Katharina; Biesiada, Jed; Biglietti, Michela; Bilokon, Halina; Bindi, Marcello; Binet, Sebastien; Bingul, Ahmet; Bini, Cesare; Biscarat, Catherine; Bitenc, Urban; Black, Kevin; Blair, Robert; Blanchard, Jean-Baptiste; Blanchot, Georges; Blazek, Tomas; Blocker, Craig; Blocki, Jacek; Blondel, Alain; Blum, Walter; Blumenschein, Ulrike; Bobbink, Gerjan; Bobrovnikov, Victor; Bocchetta, Simona Serena; Bocci, Andrea; Boddy, Christopher Richard; Boehler, Michael; Boek, Jennifer; Boelaert, Nele; Bogaerts, Joannes Andreas; Bogdanchikov, Alexander; Bogouch, Andrei; Bohm, Christian; Boisvert, Veronique; Bold, Tomasz; Boldea, Venera; Bolnet, Nayanka Myriam; Bona, Marcella; Bondarenko, Valery; Bondioli, Mario; Boonekamp, Maarten; Booth, Chris; Bordoni, Stefania; Borer, Claudia; Borisov, Anatoly; Borissov, Guennadi; Borjanovic, Iris; Borri, Marcello; Borroni, Sara; Bortolotto, Valerio; Bos, Kors; Boscherini, Davide; Bosman, Martine; Boterenbrood, Hendrik; Botterill, David; Bouchami, Jihene; Boudreau, Joseph; Bouhova-Thacker, Evelina Vassileva; Boumediene, Djamel Eddine; Bourdarios, Claire; Bousson, Nicolas; Boveia, Antonio; Boyd, James; Boyko, Igor; Bozhko, Nikolay; Bozovic-Jelisavcic, Ivanka; Bracinik, Juraj; Braem, André; Branchini, Paolo; Brandenburg, George; Brandt, Andrew; Brandt, Gerhard; Brandt, Oleg; Bratzler, Uwe; Brau, Benjamin; Brau, James; Braun, Helmut; Brelier, Bertrand; Bremer, Johan; Brenner, Richard; Bressler, Shikma; Britton, Dave; Brochu, Frederic; Brock, Ian; Brock, Raymond; Brodbeck, Timothy; Brodet, Eyal; Broggi, Francesco; Bromberg, Carl; Bronner, Johanna; Brooijmans, Gustaaf; Brooks, William; Brown, Gareth; Brown, Heather; Bruckman de Renstrom, Pawel; Bruncko, Dusan; Bruneliere, Renaud; Brunet, Sylvie; Bruni, Alessia; Bruni, Graziano; Bruschi, Marco; Buanes, Trygve; Buat, Quentin; Bucci, Francesca; Buchanan, James; Buchanan, Norman; Buchholz, Peter; Buckingham, Ryan; Buckley, Andrew; Buda, Stelian Ioan; Budagov, Ioulian; Budick, Burton; Büscher, Volker; Bugge, Lars; Bulekov, Oleg; Bunse, Moritz; Buran, Torleiv; Burckhart, Helfried; Burdin, Sergey; Burgard, Carsten Daniel; Burgess, Thomas; Burke, Stephen; Busato, Emmanuel; Bussey, Peter; Buszello, Claus-Peter; Butin, François; Butler, Bart; Butler, John; Buttar, Craig; Butterworth, Jonathan; Buttinger, William; Cabrera Urbán, Susana; Caforio, Davide; Cakir, Orhan; Calafiura, Paolo; Calderini, Giovanni; Calfayan, Philippe; Calkins, Robert; Caloba, Luiz; Caloi, Rita; Calvet, David; Calvet, Samuel; Camacho Toro, Reina; Camarri, Paolo; Cambiaghi, Mario; Cameron, David; Caminada, Lea Michaela; Campana, Simone; Campanelli, Mario; Canale, Vincenzo; Canelli, Florencia; Canepa, Anadi; Cantero, Josu; 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Charlton, Dave; Chavda, Vikash; Chavez Barajas, Carlos Alberto; Cheatham, Susan; Chekanov, Sergei; Chekulaev, Sergey; Chelkov, Gueorgui; Chelstowska, Magda Anna; Chen, Chunhui; Chen, Hucheng; Chen, Shenjian; Chen, Tingyang; Chen, Xin; Cheng, Shaochen; Cheplakov, Alexander; Chepurnov, Vladimir; Cherkaoui El Moursli, Rajaa; Chernyatin, Valeriy; Cheu, Elliott; Cheung, Sing-Leung; Chevalier, Laurent; Chiefari, Giovanni; Chikovani, Leila; Childers, John Taylor; Chilingarov, Alexandre; Chiodini, Gabriele; Chisholm, Andrew; Chizhov, Mihail; Choudalakis, Georgios; Chouridou, Sofia; Christidi, Illectra-Athanasia; Christov, Asen; Chromek-Burckhart, Doris; Chu, Ming-Lee; Chudoba, Jiri; Ciapetti, Guido; Ciba, Krzysztof; Ciftci, Abbas Kenan; Ciftci, Rena; Cinca, Diane; Cindro, Vladimir; Ciobotaru, Matei Dan; Ciocca, Claudia; Ciocio, Alessandra; Cirilli, Manuela; Citterio, Mauro; Ciubancan, Mihai; Clark, Allan G; Clark, Philip James; Cleland, Bill; Clemens, Jean-Claude; Clement, Benoit; Clement, Christophe; Clifft, Roger; Coadou, Yann; Cobal, Marina; Coccaro, Andrea; Cochran, James H; Coe, Paul; Cogan, Joshua Godfrey; Coggeshall, James; Cogneras, Eric; Colas, Jacques; Colijn, Auke-Pieter; Collard, Caroline; Collins, Neil; Collins-Tooth, Christopher; Collot, Johann; Colon, German; Conde Muiño, Patricia; Coniavitis, Elias; Conidi, Maria Chiara; Consonni, Michele; Consorti, Valerio; Constantinescu, Serban; Conta, Claudio; Conventi, Francesco; Cook, James; Cooke, Mark; Cooper, Ben; Cooper-Sarkar, Amanda; Copic, Katherine; Cornelissen, Thijs; Corradi, Massimo; Corriveau, Francois; Cortes-Gonzalez, Arely; Cortiana, Giorgio; Costa, Giuseppe; Costa, María José; Costanzo, Davide; Costin, Tudor; Côté, David; Coura Torres, Rodrigo; Courneyea, Lorraine; Cowan, Glen; Cowden, Christopher; Cox, Brian; Cranmer, Kyle; Crescioli, Francesco; Cristinziani, Markus; Crosetti, Giovanni; Crupi, Roberto; Crépé-Renaudin, Sabine; Cuciuc, Constantin-Mihai; Cuenca Almenar, Cristóbal; Cuhadar Donszelmann, Tulay; Curatolo, Maria; Curtis, Chris; Cuthbert, Cameron; Cwetanski, Peter; Czirr, Hendrik; Czodrowski, Patrick; Czyczula, Zofia; D'Auria, Saverio; D'Onofrio, Monica; D'Orazio, Alessia; Da Silva, Paulo Vitor; Da Via, Cinzia; Dabrowski, Wladyslaw; Dai, Tiesheng; Dallapiccola, Carlo; Dam, Mogens; Dameri, Mauro; Damiani, Daniel; Danielsson, Hans Olof; Dannheim, Dominik; Dao, Valerio; Darbo, Giovanni; Darlea, Georgiana Lavinia; Davey, Will; Davidek, Tomas; Davidson, Nadia; Davidson, Ruth; Davies, Eleanor; Davies, Merlin; Davison, Adam; Davygora, Yuriy; Dawe, Edmund; Dawson, Ian; Dawson, John; Daya, Rozmin; De, Kaushik; de Asmundis, Riccardo; De Castro, Stefano; De Castro Faria Salgado, Pedro; De Cecco, Sandro; de Graat, Julien; De Groot, Nicolo; de Jong, Paul; De La Taille, Christophe; De la Torre, Hector; De Lotto, Barbara; de Mora, Lee; De Nooij, Lucie; De Pedis, Daniele; De Salvo, Alessandro; De Sanctis, Umberto; De Santo, Antonella; De Vivie De Regie, Jean-Baptiste; Dean, Simon; Dearnaley, William James; Debbe, Ramiro; Debenedetti, Chiara; Dedovich, Dmitri; Degenhardt, James; Dehchar, Mohamed; Del Papa, Carlo; Del Peso, Jose; Del Prete, Tarcisio; Delemontex, Thomas; Deliyergiyev, Maksym; Dell'Acqua, Andrea; Dell'Asta, Lidia; Della Pietra, Massimo; della Volpe, Domenico; Delmastro, Marco; Delruelle, Nicolas; Delsart, Pierre-Antoine; Deluca, Carolina; Demers, Sarah; Demichev, Mikhail; Demirkoz, Bilge; Deng, Jianrong; Denisov, Sergey; Derendarz, Dominik; Derkaoui, Jamal Eddine; Derue, Frederic; Dervan, Paul; Desch, Klaus Kurt; Devetak, Erik; Deviveiros, Pier-Olivier; Dewhurst, Alastair; DeWilde, Burton; Dhaliwal, Saminder; Dhullipudi, Ramasudhakar; Di Ciaccio, Anna; Di Ciaccio, Lucia; Di Girolamo, Alessandro; Di Girolamo, Beniamino; Di Luise, Silvestro; Di Mattia, Alessandro; Di Micco, Biagio; Di Nardo, Roberto; Di Simone, Andrea; Di Sipio, Riccardo; Diaz, Marco Aurelio; Diblen, Faruk; Diehl, Edward; Dietrich, Janet; Dietzsch, Thorsten; Diglio, Sara; Dindar Yagci, Kamile; Dingfelder, Jochen; Dionisi, Carlo; Dita, Petre; Dita, Sanda; Dittus, Fridolin; Djama, Fares; Djobava, Tamar; Barros do Vale, Maria Aline; Do Valle Wemans, André; Doan, Thi Kieu Oanh; Dobbs, Matt; Dobinson, Robert; Dobos, Daniel; Dobson, Ellie; Dobson, Marc; Dodd, Jeremy; Doglioni, Caterina; Doherty, Tom; Doi, Yoshikuni; Dolejsi, Jiri; Dolenc, Irena; Dolezal, Zdenek; Dolgoshein, Boris; Dohmae, Takeshi; Donadelli, Marisilvia; Donega, Mauro; Donini, Julien; Dopke, Jens; Doria, Alessandra; Dos Anjos, Andre; Dosil, Mireia; Dotti, Andrea; Dova, Maria-Teresa; Dowell, John; Doxiadis, Alexander; Doyle, Tony; Drasal, Zbynek; Drees, Jürgen; Dressnandt, Nandor; Drevermann, Hans; Driouichi, Chafik; Dris, Manolis; Dubbert, Jörg; Dube, Sourabh; Duchovni, Ehud; Duckeck, Guenter; Dudarev, Alexey; Dudziak, Fanny; Dührssen, Michael; Duerdoth, Ian; Duflot, Laurent; Dufour, Marc-Andre; Dunford, Monica; Duran Yildiz, Hatice; Duxfield, Robert; Dwuznik, Michal; Dydak, Friedrich; Düren, Michael; Ebenstein, William; Ebke, Johannes; Eckweiler, Sebastian; Edmonds, Keith; Edwards, Clive; Edwards, Nicholas Charles; Ehrenfeld, Wolfgang; Ehrich, Thies; Eifert, Till; Eigen, Gerald; Einsweiler, Kevin; Eisenhandler, Eric; Ekelof, Tord; El Kacimi, Mohamed; Ellert, Mattias; Elles, Sabine; Ellinghaus, Frank; Ellis, Katherine; Ellis, Nicolas; Elmsheuser, Johannes; Elsing, Markus; Emeliyanov, Dmitry; Engelmann, Roderich; Engl, Albert; Epp, Brigitte; Eppig, Andrew; Erdmann, Johannes; Ereditato, Antonio; Eriksson, Daniel; Ernst, Jesse; Ernst, Michael; Ernwein, Jean; Errede, Deborah; Errede, Steven; Ertel, Eugen; Escalier, Marc; Escobar, Carlos; Espinal Curull, Xavier; Esposito, Bellisario; Etienne, Francois; Etienvre, Anne-Isabelle; Etzion, Erez; Evangelakou, Despoina; Evans, Hal; Fabbri, Laura; Fabre, Caroline; Fakhrutdinov, Rinat; Falciano, Speranza; Fang, Yaquan; Fanti, Marcello; Farbin, Amir; Farilla, Addolorata; Farley, Jason; Farooque, Trisha; Farrington, Sinead; Farthouat, Philippe; Fassnacht, Patrick; Fassouliotis, Dimitrios; Fatholahzadeh, Baharak; Favareto, Andrea; Fayard, Louis; Fazio, Salvatore; Febbraro, Renato; Federic, Pavol; Fedin, Oleg; Fedorko, Woiciech; Fehling-Kaschek, Mirjam; Feligioni, Lorenzo; Fellmann, Denis; Feng, Cunfeng; Feng, Eric; Fenyuk, Alexander; Ferencei, Jozef; Ferland, Jonathan; Fernando, Waruna; Ferrag, Samir; Ferrando, James; Ferrara, Valentina; Ferrari, Arnaud; Ferrari, Pamela; Ferrari, Roberto; Ferreira de Lima, Danilo Enoque; Ferrer, Antonio; Ferrer, Maria Lorenza; Ferrere, Didier; Ferretti, Claudio; Ferretto Parodi, Andrea; Fiascaris, Maria; Fiedler, Frank; Filipčič, Andrej; Filippas, Anastasios; Filthaut, Frank; Fincke-Keeler, Margret; Fiolhais, Miguel; Fiorini, Luca; Firan, Ana; Fischer, Gordon; Fischer, Peter; Fisher, Matthew; Flechl, Martin; Fleck, Ivor; Fleckner, Johanna; Fleischmann, Philipp; Fleischmann, Sebastian; Flick, Tobias; Floderus, Anders; Flores Castillo, Luis; Flowerdew, Michael; Fokitis, Manolis; Fonseca Martin, Teresa; Forbush, David Alan; Formica, Andrea; Forti, Alessandra; Fortin, Dominique; Foster, Joe; Fournier, Daniel; Foussat, Arnaud; Fowler, Andrew; Fowler, Ken; Fox, Harald; Francavilla, Paolo; Franchino, Silvia; Francis, David; Frank, Tal; Franklin, Melissa; Franz, Sebastien; Fraternali, Marco; Fratina, Sasa; French, Sky; Friedrich, Felix; Froeschl, Robert; Froidevaux, Daniel; Frost, James; Fukunaga, Chikara; Fullana Torregrosa, Esteban; Fuster, Juan; Gabaldon, Carolina; Gabizon, Ofir; Gadfort, Thomas; Gadomski, Szymon; Gagliardi, Guido; Gagnon, Pauline; Galea, Cristina; Gallas, Elizabeth; Gallo, Valentina Santina; Gallop, Bruce; Gallus, Petr; Gan, KK; Gao, Yongsheng; Gapienko, Vladimir; Gaponenko, Andrei; Garberson, Ford; Garcia-Sciveres, Maurice; García, Carmen; García Navarro, José Enrique; Gardner, Robert; Garelli, Nicoletta; Garitaonandia, Hegoi; Garonne, Vincent; Garvey, John; Gatti, Claudio; Gaudio, Gabriella; Gaur, Bakul; Gauthier, Lea; Gavrilenko, Igor; Gay, Colin; Gaycken, Goetz; Gayde, Jean-Christophe; Gazis, Evangelos; Ge, Peng; Gee, Norman; Geerts, Daniël Alphonsus Adrianus; Geich-Gimbel, Christoph; Gellerstedt, Karl; Gemme, Claudia; Gemmell, Alistair; Genest, Marie-Hélène; Gentile, Simonetta; George, Matthias; George, Simon; Gerlach, Peter; Gershon, Avi; Geweniger, Christoph; Ghazlane, Hamid; Ghodbane, Nabil; Giacobbe, Benedetto; Giagu, Stefano; Giakoumopoulou, Victoria; Giangiobbe, Vincent; Gianotti, Fabiola; Gibbard, Bruce; Gibson, Adam; Gibson, Stephen; Gilbert, Laura; Gilewsky, Valentin; Gillberg, Dag; Gillman, Tony; Gingrich, Douglas; Ginzburg, Jonatan; Giokaris, Nikos; Giordani, MarioPaolo; Giordano, Raffaele; Giorgi, Francesco Michelangelo; Giovannini, Paola; Giraud, Pierre-Francois; Giugni, Danilo; Giunta, Michele; Giusti, Paolo; Gjelsten, Børge Kile; Gladilin, Leonid; Glasman, Claudia; Glatzer, Julian; Glazov, Alexandre; Glitza, Karl-Walter; Glonti, George; Goddard, Jack Robert; Godfrey, Jennifer; Godlewski, Jan; Goebel, Martin; Göpfert, Thomas; Goeringer, Christian; Gössling, Claus; Göttfert, Tobias; Goldfarb, Steven; Golling, Tobias; Gomes, Agostinho; Gomez Fajardo, Luz Stella; Gonçalo, Ricardo; Goncalves Pinto Firmino Da Costa, Joao; Gonella, Laura; Gonidec, Allain; Gonzalez, Saul; González de la Hoz, Santiago; Gonzalez Parra, Garoe; Gonzalez Silva, Laura; Gonzalez-Sevilla, Sergio; Goodson, Jeremiah Jet; Goossens, Luc; Gorbounov, Petr Andreevich; Gordon, Howard; Gorelov, Igor; Gorfine, Grant; Gorini, Benedetto; Gorini, Edoardo; Gorišek, Andrej; Gornicki, Edward; Gorokhov, Serguei; Goryachev, Vladimir; Gosdzik, Bjoern; Gosselink, Martijn; Gostkin, Mikhail Ivanovitch; Gough Eschrich, Ivo; Gouighri, Mohamed; Goujdami, Driss; Goulette, Marc Phillippe; Goussiou, Anna; Goy, Corinne; Gozpinar, Serdar; Grabowska-Bold, Iwona; Grafström, Per; Grahn, Karl-Johan; Grancagnolo, Francesco; Grancagnolo, Sergio; Grassi, Valerio; Gratchev, Vadim; Grau, Nathan; Gray, Heather; Gray, Julia Ann; Graziani, Enrico; Grebenyuk, Oleg; Greenshaw, Timothy; Greenwood, Zeno Dixon; Gregersen, Kristian; Gregor, Ingrid-Maria; Grenier, Philippe; Griffiths, Justin; Grigalashvili, Nugzar; Grillo, Alexander; Grinstein, Sebastian; Grishkevich, Yaroslav; Grivaz, Jean-Francois; Groh, Manfred; Gross, Eilam; Grosse-Knetter, Joern; Groth-Jensen, Jacob; Grybel, Kai; Guarino, Victor; Guest, Daniel; Guicheney, Christophe; Guida, Angelo; Guindon, Stefan; Guler, Hulya; Gunther, Jaroslav; Guo, Bin; Guo, Jun; Gupta, Ambreesh; Gusakov, Yury; Gushchin, Vladimir; Gutierrez, Phillip; Guttman, Nir; Gutzwiller, Olivier; Guyot, Claude; Gwenlan, Claire; Gwilliam, Carl; Haas, Andy; Haas, Stefan; Haber, Carl; Hackenburg, Robert; Hadavand, Haleh Khani; Hadley, David; Haefner, Petra; Hahn, Ferdinand; Haider, Stefan; Hajduk, Zbigniew; Hakobyan, Hrachya; Hall, David; Haller, Johannes; Hamacher, Klaus; Hamal, Petr; Hamer, Matthias; Hamilton, Andrew; Hamilton, Samuel; Han, Hongguang; Han, Liang; Hanagaki, Kazunori; Hanawa, Keita; Hance, Michael; Handel, Carsten; Hanke, Paul; Hansen, John Renner; Hansen, Jørgen Beck; Hansen, Jorn Dines; Hansen, Peter Henrik; Hansson, Per; Hara, Kazuhiko; Hare, Gabriel; Harenberg, Torsten; Harkusha, Siarhei; Harper, Devin; Harrington, Robert; Harris, Orin; Harrison, Karl; Hartert, Jochen; Hartjes, Fred; Haruyama, Tomiyoshi; Harvey, Alex; Hasegawa, Satoshi; Hasegawa, Yoji; Hassani, Samira; Hatch, Mark; Hauff, Dieter; Haug, Sigve; Hauschild, Michael; Hauser, Reiner; Havranek, Miroslav; Hawes, Brian; Hawkes, Christopher; Hawkings, Richard John; Hawkins, Anthony David; Hawkins, Donovan; Hayakawa, Takashi; Hayashi, Takayasu; Hayden, Daniel; Hayward, Helen; Haywood, Stephen; Hazen, Eric; He, Mao; Head, Simon; Hedberg, Vincent; Heelan, Louise; Heim, Sarah; Heinemann, Beate; Heisterkamp, Simon; Helary, Louis; Heller, Claudio; Heller, Matthieu; Hellman, Sten; Hellmich, Dennis; Helsens, Clement; Henderson, Robert; Henke, Michael; Henrichs, Anna; Henriques Correia, Ana Maria; Henrot-Versille, Sophie; Henry-Couannier, Frédéric; Hensel, Carsten; Henß, Tobias; Medina Hernandez, Carlos; Hernández Jiménez, Yesenia; Herrberg, Ruth; Hershenhorn, Alon David; Herten, Gregor; Hertenberger, Ralf; Hervas, Luis; Hesketh, Gavin Grant; Hessey, Nigel; Higón-Rodriguez, Emilio; Hill, Daniel; Hill, John; Hill, Norman; Hiller, Karl Heinz; Hillert, Sonja; Hillier, Stephen; Hinchliffe, Ian; Hines, Elizabeth; Hirose, Minoru; Hirsch, Florian; Hirschbuehl, Dominic; Hobbs, John; Hod, Noam; Hodgkinson, Mark; Hodgson, Paul; Hoecker, Andreas; Hoeferkamp, Martin; Hoffman, Julia; Hoffmann, Dirk; Hohlfeld, Marc; Holder, Martin; Holmgren, Sven-Olof; Holy, Tomas; Holzbauer, Jenny; Homma, Yasuhiro; Hong, Tae Min; Hooft van Huysduynen, Loek; Horazdovsky, Tomas; Horn, Claus; Horner, Stephan; Hostachy, Jean-Yves; Hou, Suen; Houlden, Michael; Hoummada, Abdeslam; Howarth, James; Howell, David; Hristova, Ivana; Hrivnac, Julius; Hruska, Ivan; Hryn'ova, Tetiana; Hsu, Pai-hsien Jennifer; Hsu, Shih-Chieh; Huang, Guang Shun; Hubacek, Zdenek; Hubaut, Fabrice; Huegging, Fabian; Huettmann, Antje; Huffman, Todd Brian; Hughes, Emlyn; Hughes, Gareth; Hughes-Jones, Richard; Huhtinen, Mika; Hurst, Peter; Hurwitz, Martina; Husemann, Ulrich; Huseynov, Nazim; Huston, Joey; Huth, John; Iacobucci, Giuseppe; Iakovidis, Georgios; Ibbotson, Michael; Ibragimov, Iskander; Ichimiya, Ryo; Iconomidou-Fayard, Lydia; Idarraga, John; Iengo, Paolo; Igonkina, Olga; Ikegami, Yoichi; Ikeno, Masahiro; Ilchenko, Yuri; Iliadis, Dimitrios; Ilic, Nikolina; Imori, Masatoshi; Ince, Tayfun; Inigo-Golfin, Joaquin; Ioannou, Pavlos; Iodice, Mauro; Ippolito, Valerio; Irles Quiles, Adrian; Isaksson, Charlie; Ishikawa, Akimasa; Ishino, Masaya; Ishmukhametov, Renat; Issever, Cigdem; Istin, Serhat; Ivashin, Anton; Iwanski, Wieslaw; Iwasaki, Hiroyuki; Izen, Joseph; Izzo, Vincenzo; Jackson, Brett; Jackson, John; Jackson, Paul; Jaekel, Martin; Jain, Vivek; Jakobs, Karl; Jakobsen, Sune; Jakubek, Jan; Jana, Dilip; Jankowski, Ernest; Jansen, Eric; Jansen, Hendrik; Jantsch, Andreas; Janus, Michel; Jarlskog, Göran; Jeanty, Laura; Jelen, Kazimierz; Jen-La Plante, Imai; Jenni, Peter; Jeremie, Andrea; Jež, Pavel; Jézéquel, Stéphane; Jha, Manoj Kumar; Ji, Haoshuang; Ji, Weina; Jia, Jiangyong; Jiang, Yi; Jimenez Belenguer, Marcos; Jin, Ge; Jin, Shan; Jinnouchi, Osamu; Joergensen, Morten Dam; Joffe, David; Johansen, Lars; Johansen, Marianne; Johansson, Erik; Johansson, Per; Johnert, Sebastian; Johns, Kenneth; Jon-And, Kerstin; Jones, Graham; Jones, Roger; Jones, Tegid; Jones, Tim; Jonsson, Ove; Joram, Christian; Jorge, Pedro; Joseph, John; Jovicevic, Jelena; Jovin, Tatjana; Ju, Xiangyang; Jung, Christian; Jungst, Ralph Markus; Juranek, Vojtech; Jussel, Patrick; Juste Rozas, Aurelio; Kabachenko, Vasily; Kabana, Sonja; Kaci, Mohammed; Kaczmarska, Anna; Kadlecik, Peter; Kado, Marumi; Kagan, Harris; Kagan, Michael; Kaiser, Steffen; Kajomovitz, Enrique; Kalinin, Sergey; Kalinovskaya, Lidia; Kama, Sami; Kanaya, Naoko; Kaneda, Michiru; Kaneti, Steven; Kanno, Takayuki; Kantserov, Vadim; Kanzaki, Junichi; Kaplan, Benjamin; Kapliy, Anton; Kaplon, Jan; Kar, Deepak; Karagoz, Muge; Karnevskiy, Mikhail; Karr, Kristo; Kartvelishvili, Vakhtang; Karyukhin, Andrey; Kashif, Lashkar; Kasieczka, Gregor; Kasmi, Azzedine; Kass, Richard; Kastanas, Alex; Kataoka, Mayuko; Kataoka, Yousuke; Katsoufis, Elias; Katzy, Judith; Kaushik, Venkatesh; Kawagoe, Kiyotomo; Kawamoto, Tatsuo; Kawamura, Gen; Kayl, Manuel; Kazanin, Vassili; Kazarinov, Makhail; Keeler, Richard; Kehoe, Robert; Keil, Markus; Kekelidze, George; Kennedy, John; Kenney, Christopher John; Kenyon, Mike; Kepka, Oldrich; Kerschen, Nicolas; Kerševan, Borut Paul; Kersten, Susanne; Kessoku, Kohei; Keung, Justin; Khakzad, Mohsen; Khalil-zada, Farkhad; Khandanyan, Hovhannes; Khanov, Alexander; Kharchenko, Dmitri; Khodinov, Alexander; Kholodenko, Anatoli; Khomich, Andrei; Khoo, Teng Jian; Khoriauli, Gia; Khoroshilov, Andrey; Khovanskiy, Nikolai; Khovanskiy, Valery; Khramov, Evgeniy; Khubua, Jemal; Kim, Hyeon Jin; Kim, Min Suk; Kim, Shinhong; Kimura, Naoki; Kind, Oliver; King, Barry; King, Matthew; King, Robert Steven Beaufoy; Kirk, Julie; Kirsch, Lawrence; Kiryunin, Andrey; Kishimoto, Tomoe; Kisielewska, Danuta; Kittelmann, Thomas; Kiver, Andrey; Kladiva, Eduard; Klaiber-Lodewigs, Jonas; Klein, Max; Klein, Uta; Kleinknecht, Konrad; Klemetti, Miika; Klier, Amit; Klimek, Pawel; Klimentov, Alexei; Klingenberg, Reiner; Klinger, Joel Alexander; Klinkby, Esben; Klioutchnikova, Tatiana; Klok, Peter; Klous, Sander; Kluge, Eike-Erik; Kluge, Thomas; Kluit, Peter; Kluth, Stefan; Knecht, Neil; Kneringer, Emmerich; Knobloch, Juergen; Knoops, Edith; Knue, Andrea; Ko, Byeong Rok; Kobayashi, Tomio; Kobel, Michael; Kocian, Martin; Kodys, Peter; Köneke, Karsten; König, Adriaan; Koenig, Sebastian; Köpke, Lutz; Koetsveld, Folkert; Koevesarki, Peter; Koffas, Thomas; Koffeman, Els; Kogan, Lucy Anne; Kohn, Fabian; Kohout, Zdenek; Kohriki, Takashi; Koi, Tatsumi; Kokott, Thomas; Kolachev, Guennady; Kolanoski, Hermann; Kolesnikov, Vladimir; Koletsou, Iro; Koll, James; Kollefrath, Michael; Kolya, Scott; Komar, Aston; Komori, Yuto; Kondo, Takahiko; Kono, Takanori; Kononov, Anatoly; Konoplich, Rostislav; Konstantinidis, Nikolaos; Kootz, Andreas; Koperny, Stefan; Korcyl, Krzysztof; Kordas, Kostantinos; Koreshev, Victor; Korn, Andreas; Korol, Aleksandr; Korolkov, Ilya; Korolkova, Elena; Korotkov, Vladislav; Kortner, Oliver; Kortner, Sandra; Kostyukhin, Vadim; Kotamäki, Miikka Juhani; Kotov, Sergey; Kotov, Vladislav; Kotwal, Ashutosh; Kourkoumelis, Christine; Kouskoura, Vasiliki; Koutsman, Alex; Kowalewski, Robert Victor; Kowalski, Tadeusz; Kozanecki, Witold; Kozhin, Anatoly; Kral, Vlastimil; Kramarenko, Viktor; Kramberger, Gregor; Krasny, Mieczyslaw Witold; Krasznahorkay, Attila; Kraus, James; Kraus, Jana; Kreisel, Arik; Krejci, Frantisek; Kretzschmar, Jan; Krieger, Nina; Krieger, Peter; Kroeninger, Kevin; Kroha, Hubert; Kroll, Joe; Kroseberg, Juergen; Krstic, Jelena; Kruchonak, Uladzimir; Krüger, Hans; Kruker, Tobias; Krumnack, Nils; Krumshteyn, Zinovii; Kruth, Andre; Kubota, Takashi; Kuday, Sinan; Kuehn, Susanne; Kugel, Andreas; Kuhl, Thorsten; Kuhn, Dietmar; Kukhtin, Victor; Kulchitsky, Yuri; Kuleshov, Sergey; Kummer, Christian; Kuna, Marine; Kundu, Nikhil; Kunkle, Joshua; Kupco, Alexander; Kurashige, Hisaya; Kurata, Masakazu; Kurochkin, Yurii; Kus, Vlastimil; Kuwertz, Emma Sian; Kuze, Masahiro; Kvita, Jiri; Kwee, Regina; La Rosa, Alessandro; La Rotonda, Laura; Labarga, Luis; Labbe, Julien; Lablak, Said; Lacasta, Carlos; Lacava, Francesco; Lacker, Heiko; Lacour, Didier; Lacuesta, Vicente Ramón; Ladygin, Evgueni; Lafaye, Remi; Laforge, Bertrand; Lagouri, Theodota; Lai, Stanley; Laisne, Emmanuel; Lamanna, Massimo; Lampen, Caleb; Lampl, Walter; Lancon, Eric; Landgraf, Ulrich; Landon, Murrough; Lane, Jenna; Lange, Clemens; Lankford, Andrew; Lanni, Francesco; Lantzsch, Kerstin; Laplace, Sandrine; Lapoire, Cecile; Laporte, Jean-Francois; Lari, Tommaso; Larionov, Anatoly; Larner, Aimee; Lasseur, Christian; Lassnig, Mario; Laurelli, Paolo; Lavorini, Vincenzo; Lavrijsen, Wim; Laycock, Paul; Lazarev, Alexandre; Le Dortz, Olivier; Le Guirriec, Emmanuel; Le Maner, Christophe; Le Menedeu, Eve; Lebel, Céline; LeCompte, Thomas; Ledroit-Guillon, Fabienne Agnes Marie; Lee, Hurng-Chun; Lee, Jason; Lee, Shih-Chang; Lee, Lawrence; Lefebvre, Michel; Legendre, Marie; Leger, Annie; LeGeyt, Benjamin; Legger, Federica; Leggett, Charles; Lehmacher, Marc; Lehmann Miotto, Giovanna; Lei, Xiaowen; Leite, Marco Aurelio Lisboa; Leitner, Rupert; Lellouch, Daniel; Leltchouk, Mikhail; Lemmer, Boris; Lendermann, Victor; Leney, Katharine; Lenz, Tatiana; Lenzen, Georg; Lenzi, Bruno; Leonhardt, Kathrin; Leontsinis, Stefanos; Leroy, Claude; Lessard, Jean-Raphael; Lesser, Jonas; Lester, Christopher; Leung Fook Cheong, Annabelle; Levêque, Jessica; Levin, Daniel; Levinson, Lorne; Levitski, Mikhail; Lewis, Adrian; Lewis, George; Leyko, Agnieszka; Leyton, Michael; Li, Bo; Li, Haifeng; Li, Shu; Li, Xuefei; Liang, Zhijun; Liao, Hongbo; Liberti, Barbara; Lichard, Peter; Lichtnecker, Markus; Lie, Ki; Liebig, Wolfgang; Lifshitz, Ronen; Lilley, Joseph; Limbach, Christian; Limosani, Antonio; Limper, Maaike; Lin, Simon; Linde, Frank; Linnemann, James; Lipeles, Elliot; Lipinsky, Lukas; Lipniacka, Anna; Liss, Tony; Lissauer, David; Lister, Alison; Litke, Alan; Liu, Chuanlei; Liu, Dong; Liu, Hao; Liu, Jianbei; Liu, Minghui; Liu, Yanwen; Livan, Michele; Livermore, Sarah; Lleres, Annick; Llorente Merino, Javier; Lloyd, Stephen; Lobodzinska, Ewelina; Loch, Peter; Lockman, William; Loddenkoetter, Thomas; Loebinger, Fred; Loginov, Andrey; Loh, Chang Wei; Lohse, Thomas; Lohwasser, Kristin; Lokajicek, Milos; Loken, James; Lombardo, Vincenzo Paolo; Long, Robin Eamonn; Lopes, Lourenco; Lopez Mateos, David; Lorenz, Jeanette; Lorenzo Martinez, Narei; Losada, Marta; Loscutoff, Peter; Lo Sterzo, Francesco; Losty, Michael; Lou, Xinchou; Lounis, Abdenour; Loureiro, Karina; Love, Jeremy; Love, Peter; Lowe, Andrew; Lu, Feng; Lubatti, Henry; Luci, Claudio; Lucotte, Arnaud; Ludwig, Andreas; Ludwig, Dörthe; Ludwig, Inga; Ludwig, Jens; Luehring, Frederick; Luijckx, Guy; Lumb, Debra; Luminari, Lamberto; Lund, Esben; Lund-Jensen, Bengt; Lundberg, Björn; Lundberg, Johan; Lundquist, Johan; Lungwitz, Matthias; Lutz, Gerhard; Lynn, David; Lys, Jeremy; Lytken, Else; Ma, Hong; Ma, Lian Liang; Macana Goia, Jorge Andres; Maccarrone, Giovanni; Macchiolo, Anna; Maček, Boštjan; Machado Miguens, Joana; Mackeprang, Rasmus; Madaras, Ronald; Mader, Wolfgang; Maenner, Reinhard; Maeno, Tadashi; Mättig, Peter; Mättig, Stefan; Magnoni, Luca; Magradze, Erekle; Mahalalel, Yair; Mahboubi, Kambiz; Mahout, Gilles; Maiani, Camilla; Maidantchik, Carmen; Maio, Amélia; Majewski, Stephanie; Makida, Yasuhiro; Makovec, Nikola; Mal, Prolay; Malaescu, Bogdan; Malecki, Pawel; Malecki, Piotr; Maleev, Victor; Malek, Fairouz; Mallik, Usha; Malon, David; Malone, Caitlin; Maltezos, Stavros; Malyshev, Vladimir; Malyukov, Sergei; Mameghani, Raphael; Mamuzic, Judita; Manabe, Atsushi; Mandelli, Luciano; Mandić, Igor; Mandrysch, Rocco; Maneira, José; Mangeard, Pierre-Simon; Manhaes de Andrade Filho, Luciano; Manjavidze, Ioseb; Mann, Alexander; Manning, Peter; Manousakis-Katsikakis, Arkadios; Mansoulie, Bruno; Manz, Andreas; Mapelli, Alessandro; Mapelli, Livio; March, Luis; Marchand, Jean-Francois; Marchese, Fabrizio; Marchiori, Giovanni; Marcisovsky, Michal; Marin, Alexandru; Marino, Christopher; Marroquim, Fernando; Marshall, Robin; Marshall, Zach; Martens, Kalen; Marti-Garcia, Salvador; Martin, Andrew; Martin, Brian; Martin, Brian Thomas; Martin, Franck Francois; Martin, Jean-Pierre; Martin, Philippe; Martin, Tim; Martin, Victoria Jane; Martin dit Latour, Bertrand; Martin-Haugh, Stewart; Martinez, Mario; Martinez Outschoorn, Verena; Martyniuk, Alex; Marx, Marilyn; Marzano, Francesco; Marzin, Antoine; Masetti, Lucia; Mashimo, Tetsuro; Mashinistov, Ruslan; Masik, Jiri; Maslennikov, Alexey; Massa, Ignazio; Massaro, Graziano; Massol, Nicolas; Mastrandrea, Paolo; Mastroberardino, Anna; Masubuchi, Tatsuya; Mathes, Markus; Matricon, Pierre; Matsumoto, Hiroshi; Matsunaga, Hiroyuki; Matsushita, Takashi; Mattravers, Carly; Maugain, Jean-Marie; Maurer, Julien; Maxfield, Stephen; Maximov, Dmitriy; May, Edward; Mayne, Anna; Mazini, Rachid; Mazur, Michael; Mazzanti, Marcello; Mazzoni, Enrico; Mc Kee, Shawn Patrick; McCarn, Allison; McCarthy, Robert; McCarthy, Tom; McCubbin, Norman; McFarlane, Kenneth; Mcfayden, Josh; McGlone, Helen; Mchedlidze, Gvantsa; McLaren, Robert Andrew; Mclaughlan, Tom; McMahon, Steve; McPherson, Robert; Meade, Andrew; Mechnich, Joerg; Mechtel, Markus; Medinnis, Mike; Meera-Lebbai, Razzak; Meguro, Tatsuma; Mehdiyev, Rashid; Mehlhase, Sascha; Mehta, Andrew; Meier, Karlheinz; Meirose, Bernhard; Melachrinos, Constantinos; Mellado Garcia, Bruce Rafael; Mendoza Navas, Luis; Meng, Zhaoxia; Mengarelli, Alberto; Menke, Sven; Menot, Claude; Meoni, Evelin; Mercurio, Kevin Michael; Mermod, Philippe; Merola, Leonardo; Meroni, Chiara; Merritt, Frank; Merritt, Hayes; Messina, Andrea; Metcalfe, Jessica; Mete, Alaettin Serhan; Meyer, Carsten; Meyer, Christopher; Meyer, Jean-Pierre; Meyer, Jochen; Meyer, Joerg; Meyer, Thomas Christian; Meyer, W Thomas; Miao, Jiayuan; Michal, Sebastien; Micu, Liliana; Middleton, Robin; Migas, Sylwia; Mijović, Liza; Mikenberg, Giora; Mikestikova, Marcela; Mikuž, Marko; Miller, David; Miller, Robert; Mills, Bill; Mills, Corrinne; Milov, Alexander; Milstead, David; Milstein, Dmitry; Minaenko, Andrey; Miñano Moya, Mercedes; Minashvili, Irakli; Mincer, Allen; Mindur, Bartosz; Mineev, Mikhail; Ming, Yao; Mir, Lluisa-Maria; Mirabelli, Giovanni; Miralles Verge, Lluis; Misiejuk, Andrzej; Mitrevski, Jovan; Mitrofanov, Gennady; Mitsou, Vasiliki A; Mitsui, Shingo; Miyagawa, Paul; Miyazaki, Kazuki; Mjörnmark, Jan-Ulf; Moa, Torbjoern; Mockett, Paul; Moed, Shulamit; Moeller, Victoria; Mönig, Klaus; Möser, Nicolas; Mohapatra, Soumya; Mohr, Wolfgang; Mohrdieck-Möck, Susanne; Moisseev, Artemy; Moles-Valls, Regina; Molina-Perez, Jorge; Monk, James; Monnier, Emmanuel; Montesano, Simone; Monticelli, Fernando; Monzani, Simone; Moore, Roger; Moorhead, Gareth; Mora Herrera, Clemencia; Moraes, Arthur; Morange, Nicolas; Morel, Julien; Morello, Gianfranco; Moreno, Deywis; Moreno Llácer, María; Morettini, Paolo; Morgenstern, Marcus; Morii, Masahiro; Morin, Jerome; Morley, Anthony Keith; Mornacchi, Giuseppe; Morozov, Sergey; Morris, John; Morvaj, Ljiljana; Moser, Hans-Guenther; Mosidze, Maia; Moss, Josh; Mount, Richard; Mountricha, Eleni; Mouraviev, Sergei; Moyse, Edward; Mudrinic, Mihajlo; Mueller, Felix; Mueller, James; Mueller, Klemens; Müller, Thomas; Mueller, Timo; Muenstermann, Daniel; Muir, Alex; Munwes, Yonathan; Murray, Bill; Mussche, Ido; Musto, Elisa; Myagkov, Alexey; Nadal, Jordi; Nagai, Koichi; Nagano, Kunihiro; Nagarkar, Advait; Nagasaka, Yasushi; Nagel, Martin; Nairz, Armin Michael; Nakahama, Yu; Nakamura, Koji; Nakamura, Tomoaki; Nakano, Itsuo; Nanava, Gizo; Napier, Austin; Narayan, Rohin; Nash, Michael; Nation, Nigel; Nattermann, Till; Naumann, Thomas; Navarro, Gabriela; Neal, Homer; Nebot, Eduardo; Nechaeva, Polina; Neep, Thomas James; Negri, Andrea; Negri, Guido; Nektarijevic, Snezana; Nelson, Andrew; Nelson, Silke; Nelson, Timothy Knight; Nemecek, Stanislav; Nemethy, Peter; Nepomuceno, Andre Asevedo; Nessi, Marzio; Neubauer, Mark; Neusiedl, Andrea; Neves, Ricardo; Nevski, Pavel; Newman, Paul; Nguyen Thi Hong, Van; Nickerson, Richard; Nicolaidou, Rosy; Nicolas, Ludovic; Nicquevert, Bertrand; Niedercorn, Francois; Nielsen, Jason; Niinikoski, Tapio; Nikiforou, Nikiforos; Nikiforov, Andriy; Nikolaenko, Vladimir; Nikolaev, Kirill; Nikolic-Audit, Irena; Nikolics, Katalin; Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos; Nilsen, Henrik; Nilsson, Paul; Ninomiya, Yoichi; Nisati, Aleandro; Nishiyama, Tomonori; Nisius, Richard; Nodulman, Lawrence; Nomachi, Masaharu; Nomidis, Ioannis; Nordberg, Markus; Nordkvist, Bjoern; Norton, Peter; Novakova, Jana; Nozaki, Mitsuaki; Nozka, Libor; Nugent, Ian Michael; Nuncio-Quiroz, Adriana-Elizabeth; Nunes Hanninger, Guilherme; Nunnemann, Thomas; Nurse, Emily; O'Brien, Brendan Joseph; O'Neale, Steve; O'Neil, Dugan; O'Shea, Val; Oakes, Louise Beth; Oakham, Gerald; Oberlack, Horst; Ocariz, Jose; Ochi, Atsuhiko; Oda, Susumu; 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Zaitsev, Alexander; Zajacova, Zuzana; Zanello, Lucia; Zarzhitsky, Pavel; Zaytsev, Alexander; Zeitnitz, Christian; Zeller, Michael; Zeman, Martin; Zemla, Andrzej; Zendler, Carolin; Zenin, Oleg; Ženiš, Tibor; Zenonos, Zenonas; Zenz, Seth; Zerwas, Dirk; Zevi della Porta, Giovanni; Zhan, Zhichao; Zhang, Dongliang; Zhang, Huaqiao; Zhang, Jinlong; Zhang, Xueyao; Zhang, Zhiqing; Zhao, Long; Zhao, Tianchi; Zhao, Zhengguo; Zhemchugov, Alexey; Zheng, Shuchen; Zhong, Jiahang; Zhou, Bing; Zhou, Ning; Zhou, Yue; Zhu, Cheng Guang; Zhu, Hongbo; Zhu, Junjie; Zhu, Yingchun; Zhuang, Xuai; Zhuravlov, Vadym; Zieminska, Daria; Zimmermann, Robert; Zimmermann, Simone; Zimmermann, Stephanie; Ziolkowski, Michael; Zitoun, Robert; Živković, Lidija; Zmouchko, Viatcheslav; Zobernig, Georg; Zoccoli, Antonio; Zolnierowski, Yves; Zsenei, Andras; zur Nedden, Martin; Zutshi, Vishnu; Zwalinski, Lukasz

    2013-03-02

    The uncertainty on the calorimeter energy response to jets of particles is derived for the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). First, the calorimeter response to single isolated charged hadrons is measured and compared to the Monte Carlo simulation using proton-proton collisions at centre-of-mass energies of $\\sqrt{s}$ = 900 GeV and 7 TeV collected during 2009 and 2010. Then, using the decay of K_s and Lambda particles, the calorimeter response to specific types of particles (positively and negatively charged pions, protons, and anti-protons) is measured and compared to the Monte Carlo predictions. Finally, the jet energy scale uncertainty is determined by propagating the response uncertainty for single charged and neutral particles to jets. The response uncertainty is 2-5% for central isolated hadrons and 1-3% for the final calorimeter jet energy scale.

  13. Inventory calculation and nuclear data uncertainty propagation on light water reactor fuel using ALEPH-2 and SCALE 6.2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fiorito, L.; Piedra, D.; Cabellos, O.; Diez, C.J.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We performed burnup calculations of PWR and BWR benchmarks using ALEPH and SCALE. • We propagated nuclear data uncertainty and correlations using different procedures and code. • Decay data uncertainties have negligible impact on nuclide densities. • Uncorrelated fission yields play a major role on the uncertainties of fission products. • Fission yields impact is strongly reduced by the introduction of correlations. - Abstract: Two fuel assemblies, one belonging to the Takahama-3 PWR and the other to the Fukushima-Daini-2 BWR, were modelled and the fuel irradiation was simulated with the TRITON module of SCALE 6.2 and with the ALEPH-2 code. Our results were compared to the experimental measurements of four samples: SF95-4 and SF96-4 were taken from the Takahama-3 reactor, while samples SF98-6 and SF99-6 belonged to the Fukushima-Daini-2. Then, we propagated the uncertainties coming from the nuclear data to the isotopic inventory of sample SF95-4. We used the ALEPH-2 adjoint procedure to propagate the decay constant uncertainties. The impact was inappreciable. The cross-section covariance information was propagated with the SAMPLER module of the beta3 version of SCALE 6.2. This contribution mostly affected the uncertainties of the actinides. Finally, the uncertainties of the fission yields were propagated both through ALEPH-2 and TRITON with a Monte Carlo sampling approach and appeared to have the largest impact on the uncertainties of the fission products. However, the lack of fission yield correlations results is a serious overestimation of the response uncertainties

  14. Sources of uncertainties in modelling black carbon at the global scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Vignati

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Our understanding of the global black carbon (BC cycle is essentially qualitative due to uncertainties in our knowledge of its properties. This work investigates two source of uncertainties in modelling black carbon: those due to the use of different schemes for BC ageing and its removal rate in the global Transport-Chemistry model TM5 and those due to the uncertainties in the definition and quantification of the observations, which propagate through to both the emission inventories, and the measurements used for the model evaluation.

    The schemes for the atmospheric processing of black carbon that have been tested with the model are (i a simple approach considering BC as bulk aerosol and a simple treatment of the removal with fixed 70% of in-cloud black carbon concentrations scavenged by clouds and removed when rain is present and (ii a more complete description of microphysical ageing within an aerosol dynamics model, where removal is coupled to the microphysical properties of the aerosol, which results in a global average of 40% in-cloud black carbon that is scavenged in clouds and subsequently removed by rain, thus resulting in a longer atmospheric lifetime. This difference is reflected in comparisons between both sets of modelled results and the measurements. Close to the sources, both anthropogenic and vegetation fire source regions, the model results do not differ significantly, indicating that the emissions are the prevailing mechanism determining the concentrations and the choice of the aerosol scheme does not influence the levels. In more remote areas such as oceanic and polar regions the differences can be orders of magnitude, due to the differences between the two schemes. The more complete description reproduces the seasonal trend of the black carbon observations in those areas, although not always the magnitude of the signal, while the more simplified approach underestimates black carbon concentrations by orders of

  15. Methods for Quantifying the Uncertainties of LSIT Test Parameters, Test Results, and Full-Scale Mixing Performance Using Models Developed from Scaled Test Data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piepel, Gregory F.; Cooley, Scott K.; Kuhn, William L.; Rector, David R.; Heredia-Langner, Alejandro

    2015-01-01

    This report discusses the statistical methods for quantifying uncertainties in 1) test responses and other parameters in the Large Scale Integrated Testing (LSIT), and 2) estimates of coefficients and predictions of mixing performance from models that relate test responses to test parameters. Testing at a larger scale has been committed to by Bechtel National, Inc. and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to ''address uncertainties and increase confidence in the projected, full-scale mixing performance and operations'' in the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP).

  16. Methods for Quantifying the Uncertainties of LSIT Test Parameters, Test Results, and Full-Scale Mixing Performance Using Models Developed from Scaled Test Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piepel, Gregory F. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Cooley, Scott K. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Kuhn, William L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rector, David R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Heredia-Langner, Alejandro [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-05-01

    This report discusses the statistical methods for quantifying uncertainties in 1) test responses and other parameters in the Large Scale Integrated Testing (LSIT), and 2) estimates of coefficients and predictions of mixing performance from models that relate test responses to test parameters. Testing at a larger scale has been committed to by Bechtel National, Inc. and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to “address uncertainties and increase confidence in the projected, full-scale mixing performance and operations” in the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP).

  17. Analysis of convergence of uncertainty and important factors affecting uncertainty in level 1 PSA for pressurized water reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimada, Yoshio

    2002-01-01

    We analyzed how the convergence of mean core damage frequency (CDF) depends on the number of minimal cut sets, the sampling method and the random seed, using level 1 PSA models for Surry 1 and a Japanese 4 loop PWR plant. As a result, the followings were clarified: the good convergence efficiency of the latin hypercube sampling (LHS), the relationship between number of minimal cut sets and mean CDF, as well as the standard deviation and the easy method of judgment for mean CDF convergence. In addition, it was seen that the relationship between the number of probability variables (i.e. the number of basic events) and the number of samplings needed to converge for mean CDF. Analysis of important factors affecting uncertainty was also performed. As a result, it was found that the initiating events (especially loss of coolant accidents) were the dominant important factors. Finally, comparisons were made for the 95% confidence interval of the calculated results from the operating experience of the worldwide nuclear power plants with (1) the mean core damage frequency by PSA for 108 US plants and 51 Japanese plants and (2) the 95% confidence interval of the US and the Japanese Plant PSA model used in this research. As a result, it was clarified that the mean core damage frequency of almost all US pressurized and boiling light water reactors in the US was in the 90% confidence interval calculated from the operating experience of the nuclear power plants (PWRs and BWRs) in the world, but that of those reactors in Japan was smaller then that level. (author)

  18. Analysis of convergence of uncertainty and important factors affecting uncertainty in level 1 PSA for pressurized water reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shimada, Yoshio [Inst. of Nuclear Safety System Inc., Mihama, Fukui (Japan)

    2002-09-01

    We analyzed how the convergence of mean core damage frequency (CDF) depends on the number of minimal cut sets, the sampling method and the random seed, using level 1 PSA models for Surry 1 and a Japanese 4 loop PWR plant. As a result, the followings were clarified: the good convergence efficiency of the latin hypercube sampling (LHS), the relationship between number of minimal cut sets and mean CDF, as well as the standard deviation and the easy method of judgment for mean CDF convergence. In addition, it was seen that the relationship between the number of probability variables (i.e. the number of basic events) and the number of samplings needed to converge for mean CDF. Analysis of important factors affecting uncertainty was also performed. As a result, it was found that the initiating events (especially loss of coolant accidents) were the dominant important factors. Finally, comparisons were made for the 95% confidence interval of the calculated results from the operating experience of the worldwide nuclear power plants with (1) the mean core damage frequency by PSA for 108 US plants and 51 Japanese plants and (2) the 95% confidence interval of the US and the Japanese Plant PSA model used in this research. As a result, it was clarified that the mean core damage frequency of almost all US pressurized and boiling light water reactors in the US was in the 90% confidence interval calculated from the operating experience of the nuclear power plants (PWRs and BWRs) in the world, but that of those reactors in Japan was smaller then that level. (author)

  19. Dynamic Simulation, Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of a Demonstration Scale Lignocellulosic Enzymatic Hydrolysis Process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prunescu, Remus Mihail; Sin, Gürkan

    2014-01-01

    This study presents the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a lignocellulosic enzymatic hydrolysis model considering both model and feed parameters as sources of uncertainty. The dynamic model is parametrized for accommodating various types of biomass, and different enzymatic complexes...

  20. Uncertainties in the correction factors as the dose polarization and recombination at different energies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alejo Luque, L.; Rodriguez Romero, R.; Castro Tejero, P.; Fandino Lareo, J. M.

    2011-01-01

    This paper discusses the measures and uncertainties of the correction factors for dose-polarization (k, 1) and recombination (k,) of different ionization chambers plane-parallel and cylindrical. The values ??have been obtained using photon and electron beams of various energies generated by linear accelerators nominal Varian 21EX CLJNAC Tomotherapy Hi-Art and JI. We study the cases in which you can avoid the application of the factors obtained, according to the criteria proposed

  1. Scaling Factor Estimation Using Optimized Mass Change Strategy, Part 2: Experimental Results

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fernández, Pelayo Fernández; Aenlle, Manuel López; Garcia, Luis M. Villa

    2007-01-01

    The mass change method is used to estimate the scaling factors, the uncertainty is reduced when, for each mode, the frequency shift is maximized and the changes in the mode shapes are minimized, which in turn, depends on the mass change strategy chosen to modify the dynamic behavior of the struct...

  2. Calibration sets and the accuracy of vibrational scaling factors: A case study with the X3LYP hybrid functional

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teixeira, Filipe; Melo, André; Cordeiro, M. Natália D. S.

    2010-09-01

    A linear least-squares methodology was used to determine the vibrational scaling factors for the X3LYP density functional. Uncertainties for these scaling factors were calculated according to the method devised by Irikura et al. [J. Phys. Chem. A 109, 8430 (2005)]. The calibration set was systematically partitioned according to several of its descriptors and the scaling factors for X3LYP were recalculated for each subset. The results show that the scaling factors are only significant up to the second digit, irrespective of the calibration set used. Furthermore, multivariate statistical analysis allowed us to conclude that the scaling factors and the associated uncertainties are independent of the size of the calibration set and strongly suggest the practical impossibility of obtaining vibrational scaling factors with more than two significant digits.

  3. Low energy peripheral scaling in nucleon-nucleon scattering and uncertainty quantification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz Simo, I.; Amaro, J. E.; Ruiz Arriola, E.; Navarro Pérez, R.

    2018-03-01

    We analyze the peripheral structure of the nucleon-nucleon interaction for LAB energies below 350 MeV. To this end we transform the scattering matrix into the impact parameter representation by analyzing the scaled phase shifts (L + 1/2) δ JLS (p) and the scaled mixing parameters (L + 1/2)ɛ JLS (p) in terms of the impact parameter b = (L + 1/2)/p. According to the eikonal approximation, at large angular momentum L these functions should become an universal function of b, independent on L. This allows to discuss in a rather transparent way the role of statistical and systematic uncertainties in the different long range components of the two-body potential. Implications for peripheral waves obtained in chiral perturbation theory interactions to fifth order (N5LO) or from the large body of NN data considered in the SAID partial wave analysis are also drawn from comparing them with other phenomenological high-quality interactions, constructed to fit scattering data as well. We find that both N5LO and SAID peripheral waves disagree more than 5σ with the Granada-2013 statistical analysis, more than 2σ with the 6 statistically equivalent potentials fitting the Granada-2013 database and about 1σ with the historical set of 13 high-quality potentials developed since the 1993 Nijmegen analysis.

  4. Environmental impact and risk assessments and key factors contributing to the overall uncertainties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salbu, Brit

    2016-01-01

    There is a significant number of nuclear and radiological sources that have contributed, are still contributing, or have the potential to contribute to radioactive contamination of the environment in the future. To protect the environment from radioactive contamination, impact and risk assessments are performed prior to or during a release event, short or long term after deposition or prior and after implementation of countermeasures. When environmental impact and risks are assessed, however, a series of factors will contribute to the overall uncertainties. To provide environmental impact and risk assessments, information on processes, kinetics and a series of input variables is needed. Adding problems such as variability, questionable assumptions, gaps in knowledge, extrapolations and poor conceptual model structures, a series of factors are contributing to large and often unacceptable uncertainties in impact and risk assessments. Information on the source term and the release scenario is an essential starting point in impact and risk models; the source determines activity concentrations and atom ratios of radionuclides released, while the release scenario determine the physico-chemical forms of released radionuclides such as particle size distribution, structure and density. Releases will most often contain other contaminants such as metals, and due to interactions, contaminated sites should be assessed as a multiple stressor scenario. Following deposition, a series of stressors, interactions and processes will influence the ecosystem transfer of radionuclide species and thereby influence biological uptake (toxicokinetics) and responses (toxicodynamics) in exposed organisms. Due to the variety of biological species, extrapolation is frequently needed to fill gaps in knowledge e.g., from effects to no effects, from effects in one organism to others, from one stressor to mixtures. Most toxtests are, however, performed as short term exposure of adult organisms

  5. Scalable multi-objective control for large scale water resources systems under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giuliani, Matteo; Quinn, Julianne; Herman, Jonathan; Castelletti, Andrea; Reed, Patrick

    2016-04-01

    The use of mathematical models to support the optimal management of environmental systems is rapidly expanding over the last years due to advances in scientific knowledge of the natural processes, efficiency of the optimization techniques, and availability of computational resources. However, undergoing changes in climate and society introduce additional challenges for controlling these systems, ultimately motivating the emergence of complex models to explore key causal relationships and dependencies on uncontrolled sources of variability. In this work, we contribute a novel implementation of the evolutionary multi-objective direct policy search (EMODPS) method for controlling environmental systems under uncertainty. The proposed approach combines direct policy search (DPS) with hierarchical parallelization of multi-objective evolutionary algorithms (MOEAs) and offers a threefold advantage: the DPS simulation-based optimization can be combined with any simulation model and does not add any constraint on modeled information, allowing the use of exogenous information in conditioning the decisions. Moreover, the combination of DPS and MOEAs prompts the generation or Pareto approximate set of solutions for up to 10 objectives, thus overcoming the decision biases produced by cognitive myopia, where narrow or restrictive definitions of optimality strongly limit the discovery of decision relevant alternatives. Finally, the use of large-scale MOEAs parallelization improves the ability of the designed solutions in handling the uncertainty due to severe natural variability. The proposed approach is demonstrated on a challenging water resources management problem represented by the optimal control of a network of four multipurpose water reservoirs in the Red River basin (Vietnam). As part of the medium-long term energy and food security national strategy, four large reservoirs have been constructed on the Red River tributaries, which are mainly operated for hydropower

  6. Environmental impact and risk assessments and key factors contributing to the overall uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salbu, Brit

    2016-01-01

    There is a significant number of nuclear and radiological sources that have contributed, are still contributing, or have the potential to contribute to radioactive contamination of the environment in the future. To protect the environment from radioactive contamination, impact and risk assessments are performed prior to or during a release event, short or long term after deposition or prior and after implementation of countermeasures. When environmental impact and risks are assessed, however, a series of factors will contribute to the overall uncertainties. To provide environmental impact and risk assessments, information on processes, kinetics and a series of input variables is needed. Adding problems such as variability, questionable assumptions, gaps in knowledge, extrapolations and poor conceptual model structures, a series of factors are contributing to large and often unacceptable uncertainties in impact and risk assessments. Information on the source term and the release scenario is an essential starting point in impact and risk models; the source determines activity concentrations and atom ratios of radionuclides released, while the release scenario determine the physico-chemical forms of released radionuclides such as particle size distribution, structure and density. Releases will most often contain other contaminants such as metals, and due to interactions, contaminated sites should be assessed as a multiple stressor scenario. Following deposition, a series of stressors, interactions and processes will influence the ecosystem transfer of radionuclide species and thereby influence biological uptake (toxicokinetics) and responses (toxicodynamics) in exposed organisms. Due to the variety of biological species, extrapolation is frequently needed to fill gaps in knowledge e.g., from effects to no effects, from effects in one organism to others, from one stressor to mixtures. Most toxtests are, however, performed as short term exposure of adult organisms

  7. Variability and uncertainty in Swedish exposure factors for use in quantitative exposure assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filipsson, Monika; Öberg, Tomas; Bergbäck, Bo

    2011-01-01

    Information of exposure factors used in quantitative risk assessments has previously been compiled and reported for U.S. and European populations. However, due to the advancement of science and knowledge, these reports are in continuous need of updating with new data. Equally important is the change over time of many exposure factors related to both physiological characteristics and human behavior. Body weight, skin surface, time use, and dietary habits are some of the most obvious examples covered here. A wealth of data is available from literature not primarily gathered for the purpose of risk assessment. Here we review a number of key exposure factors and compare these factors between northern Europe--here represented by Sweden--and the United States. Many previous compilations of exposure factor data focus on interindividual variability and variability between sexes and age groups, while uncertainty is mainly dealt with in a qualitative way. In this article variability is assessed along with uncertainty. As estimates of central tendency and interindividual variability, mean, standard deviation, skewness, kurtosis, and multiple percentiles were calculated, while uncertainty was characterized using 95% confidence intervals for these parameters. The presented statistics are appropriate for use in deterministic analyses using point estimates for each input parameter as well as in probabilistic assessments. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. Communicating Climate Uncertainties: Challenges and Opportunities Related to Spatial Scales, Extreme Events, and the Warming 'Hiatus'

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casola, J. H.; Huber, D.

    2013-12-01

    makers can arrive at invalid conclusions from a seemingly valid scientific messages. Honest discussion of uncertainties, and recognition of the spatial and time scales associated with decision making, can work to combat this potential confusion.

  9. A scaling approach to project regional sea level rise and its uncertainties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Perrette

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change causes global mean sea level to rise due to thermal expansion of seawater and loss of land ice from mountain glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets. Locally, sea level can strongly deviate from the global mean rise due to changes in wind and ocean currents. In addition, gravitational adjustments redistribute seawater away from shrinking ice masses. However, the land ice contribution to sea level rise (SLR remains very challenging to model, and comprehensive regional sea level projections, which include appropriate gravitational adjustments, are still a nascent field (Katsman et al., 2011; Slangen et al., 2011. Here, we present an alternative approach to derive regional sea level changes for a range of emission and land ice melt scenarios, combining probabilistic forecasts of a simple climate model (MAGICC6 with the new CMIP5 general circulation models. The contribution from ice sheets varies considerably depending on the assumptions for the ice sheet projections, and thus represents sizeable uncertainties for future sea level rise. However, several consistent and robust patterns emerge from our analysis: at low latitudes, especially in the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific, sea level will likely rise more than the global mean (mostly by 10–20%. Around the northeastern Atlantic and the northeastern Pacific coasts, sea level will rise less than the global average or, in some rare cases, even fall. In the northwestern Atlantic, along the American coast, a strong dynamic sea level rise is counteracted by gravitational depression due to Greenland ice melt; whether sea level will be above- or below-average will depend on the relative contribution of these two factors. Our regional sea level projections and the diagnosed uncertainties provide an improved basis for coastal impact analysis and infrastructure planning for adaptation to climate change.

  10. Scale factor duality for conformal cyclic cosmologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silva, University Camara da; Lima, A.L. Alves; Sotkov, G.M. [Departamento de Física - CCE,Universidade Federal de Espirito Santo, 29075-900, Vitoria ES (Brazil)

    2016-11-16

    The scale factor duality is a symmetry of dilaton gravity which is known to lead to pre-big-bang cosmologies. A conformal time version of the scale factor duality (SFD) was recently implemented as a UV/IR symmetry between decelerated and accelerated phases of the post-big-bang evolution within Einstein gravity coupled to a scalar field. The problem investigated in the present paper concerns the employment of the conformal time SFD methods to the construction of pre-big-bang and cyclic extensions of these models. We demonstrate that each big-bang model gives rise to two qualitatively different pre-big-bang evolutions: a contraction/expansion SFD model and Penrose’s Conformal Cyclic Cosmology (CCC). A few examples of SFD symmetric cyclic universes involving certain gauged Kähler sigma models minimally coupled to Einstein gravity are studied. We also describe the specific SFD features of the thermodynamics and the conditions for validity of the generalized second law in the case of Gauss-Bonnet (GB) extension of these selected CCC models.

  11. Scale factor duality for conformal cyclic cosmologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, University Camara da; Lima, A.L. Alves; Sotkov, G.M.

    2016-01-01

    The scale factor duality is a symmetry of dilaton gravity which is known to lead to pre-big-bang cosmologies. A conformal time version of the scale factor duality (SFD) was recently implemented as a UV/IR symmetry between decelerated and accelerated phases of the post-big-bang evolution within Einstein gravity coupled to a scalar field. The problem investigated in the present paper concerns the employment of the conformal time SFD methods to the construction of pre-big-bang and cyclic extensions of these models. We demonstrate that each big-bang model gives rise to two qualitatively different pre-big-bang evolutions: a contraction/expansion SFD model and Penrose’s Conformal Cyclic Cosmology (CCC). A few examples of SFD symmetric cyclic universes involving certain gauged Kähler sigma models minimally coupled to Einstein gravity are studied. We also describe the specific SFD features of the thermodynamics and the conditions for validity of the generalized second law in the case of Gauss-Bonnet (GB) extension of these selected CCC models.

  12. Final Technical Report: Quantification of Uncertainty in Extreme Scale Computations (QUEST)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knio, Omar M. [Duke Univ., Durham, NC (United States). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering and Materials Science

    2017-06-06

    QUEST is a SciDAC Institute comprising Sandia National Laboratories, Los Alamos National Laboratory, University of Southern California, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, University of Texas at Austin, and Duke University. The mission of QUEST is to: (1) develop a broad class of uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods/tools, and (2) provide UQ expertise and software to other SciDAC projects, thereby enabling/guiding their UQ activities. The Duke effort focused on the development of algorithms and utility software for non-intrusive sparse UQ representations, and on participation in the organization of annual workshops and tutorials to disseminate UQ tools to the community, and to gather input in order to adapt approaches to the needs of SciDAC customers. In particular, fundamental developments were made in (a) multiscale stochastic preconditioners, (b) gradient-based approaches to inverse problems, (c) adaptive pseudo-spectral approximations, (d) stochastic limit cycles, and (e) sensitivity analysis tools for noisy systems. In addition, large-scale demonstrations were performed, namely in the context of ocean general circulation models.

  13. Trajectory Reconstruction and Uncertainty Analysis Using Mars Science Laboratory Pre-Flight Scale Model Aeroballistic Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lugo, Rafael A.; Tolson, Robert H.; Schoenenberger, Mark

    2013-01-01

    As part of the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) trajectory reconstruction effort at NASA Langley Research Center, free-flight aeroballistic experiments of instrumented MSL scale models was conducted at Aberdeen Proving Ground in Maryland. The models carried an inertial measurement unit (IMU) and a flush air data system (FADS) similar to the MSL Entry Atmospheric Data System (MEADS) that provided data types similar to those from the MSL entry. Multiple sources of redundant data were available, including tracking radar and on-board magnetometers. These experimental data enabled the testing and validation of the various tools and methodologies that will be used for MSL trajectory reconstruction. The aerodynamic parameters Mach number, angle of attack, and sideslip angle were estimated using minimum variance with a priori to combine the pressure data and pre-flight computational fluid dynamics (CFD) data. Both linear and non-linear pressure model terms were also estimated for each pressure transducer as a measure of the errors introduced by CFD and transducer calibration. Parameter uncertainties were estimated using a "consider parameters" approach.

  14. Uncertainty Quantification Analysis of Both Experimental and CFD Simulation Data of a Bench-scale Fluidized Bed Gasifier

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shahnam, Mehrdad [National Energy Technology Lab. (NETL), Morgantown, WV (United States). Research and Innovation Center, Energy Conversion Engineering Directorate; Gel, Aytekin [ALPEMI Consulting, LLC, Phoeniz, AZ (United States); Subramaniyan, Arun K. [GE Global Research Center, Niskayuna, NY (United States); Musser, Jordan [National Energy Technology Lab. (NETL), Morgantown, WV (United States). Research and Innovation Center, Energy Conversion Engineering Directorate; Dietiker, Jean-Francois [West Virginia Univ. Research Corporation, Morgantown, WV (United States)

    2017-10-02

    Adequate assessment of the uncertainties in modeling and simulation is becoming an integral part of the simulation based engineering design. The goal of this study is to demonstrate the application of non-intrusive Bayesian uncertainty quantification (UQ) methodology in multiphase (gas-solid) flows with experimental and simulation data, as part of our research efforts to determine the most suited approach for UQ of a bench scale fluidized bed gasifier. UQ analysis was first performed on the available experimental data. Global sensitivity analysis performed as part of the UQ analysis shows that among the three operating factors, steam to oxygen ratio has the most influence on syngas composition in the bench-scale gasifier experiments. An analysis for forward propagation of uncertainties was performed and results show that an increase in steam to oxygen ratio leads to an increase in H2 mole fraction and a decrease in CO mole fraction. These findings are in agreement with the ANOVA analysis performed in the reference experimental study. Another contribution in addition to the UQ analysis is the optimization-based approach to guide to identify next best set of additional experimental samples, should the possibility arise for additional experiments. Hence, the surrogate models constructed as part of the UQ analysis is employed to improve the information gain and make incremental recommendation, should the possibility to add more experiments arise. In the second step, series of simulations were carried out with the open-source computational fluid dynamics software MFiX to reproduce the experimental conditions, where three operating factors, i.e., coal flow rate, coal particle diameter, and steam-to-oxygen ratio, were systematically varied to understand their effect on the syngas composition. Bayesian UQ analysis was performed on the numerical results. As part of Bayesian UQ analysis, a global sensitivity analysis was performed based on the simulation results, which shows

  15. Account for uncertainties of control measurements in the assessment of design margin factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dementiev, V. G.; Sidorenko, V. D.; Shishkov, L. K.

    2011-01-01

    The paper discusses the feasibility of accounting for uncertainties of control measurements in estimation of design margin factors. The feasibility is also taken into consideration proceeding from the fact how much the processed measured data were corrected by a priori calculated data of measurable parameters. The possibility and feasibility of such data correction is demonstrated by the authors with the help of Bayes theorem famous in mathematical statistics. (Authors)

  16. Validation and evaluation of epistemic uncertainty in rainfall thresholds for regional scale landslide forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Brunetti, Maria Teresa; Iovine, Giulio; Melillo, Massimo; Peruccacci, Silvia; Terranova, Oreste Giuseppe; Vennari, Carmela; Guzzetti, Fausto

    2015-04-01

    Prediction of rainfall-induced landslides can rely on empirical rainfall thresholds. These are obtained from the analysis of past rainfall events that have (or have not) resulted in slope failures. Accurate prediction requires reliable thresholds, which need to be validated before their use in operational landslide warning systems. Despite the clear relevance of validation, only a few studies have addressed the problem, and have proposed and tested robust validation procedures. We propose a validation procedure that allows for the definition of optimal thresholds for early warning purposes. The validation is based on contingency table, skill scores, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. To establish the optimal threshold, which maximizes the correct landslide predictions and minimizes the incorrect predictions, we propose an index that results from the linear combination of three weighted skill scores. Selection of the optimal threshold depends on the scope and the operational characteristics of the early warning system. The choice is made by selecting appropriately the weights, and by searching for the optimal (maximum) value of the index. We discuss weakness in the validation procedure caused by the inherent lack of information (epistemic uncertainty) on landslide occurrence typical of large study areas. When working at the regional scale, landslides may have occurred and may have not been reported. This results in biases and variations in the contingencies and the skill scores. We introduce two parameters to represent the unknown proportion of rainfall events (above and below the threshold) for which landslides occurred and went unreported. We show that even a very small underestimation in the number of landslides can result in a significant decrease in the performance of a threshold measured by the skill scores. We show that the variations in the skill scores are different for different uncertainty of events above or below the threshold. This

  17. Estimation of high-pT Jet Energy Scale Uncertainty from single hadron response with the ATLAS detector

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(INSPIRE)INSPIRE-00534683; The ATLAS collaboration

    2016-01-01

    The jet energy scale (JES) uncertainty is estimated using different methods at different pT ranges. In situ techniques exploiting the pT balance between a jet and a reference object (e.g. Z or gamma) are used at lower pT, but at very high pT (> 2.5 TeV) there is not enough statistics for in-situ techniques. The JES uncertainty at high-pT is important in several searches for new phenomena, e.g. the dijet resonance and angular searches. In the highest pT range, the JES uncertainty is estimated using the calorimeter response to single hadrons. In this method, jets are treated as a superposition of energy depositions of single particles. An uncertainty is applied to each energy depositions belonging to the particles within the jet, and propagated to the final jet energy scale. This poster presents the JES uncertainty found with this method at sqrt(s) = 8 TeV and its developments.

  18. Model parameter uncertainty analysis for annual field-scale P loss model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phosphorous (P) loss models are important tools for developing and evaluating conservation practices aimed at reducing P losses from agricultural fields. All P loss models, however, have an inherent amount of uncertainty associated with them. In this study, we conducted an uncertainty analysis with ...

  19. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for a field-scale P loss model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Models are often used to predict phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural fields. While it is commonly recognized that there are inherent uncertainties with model predictions, limited studies have addressed model prediction uncertainty. In this study we assess the effect of model input error on predict...

  20. Estimating the magnitude of prediction uncertainties for field-scale P loss models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Models are often used to predict phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural fields. While it is commonly recognized that model predictions are inherently uncertain, few studies have addressed prediction uncertainties using P loss models. In this study, an uncertainty analysis for the Annual P Loss Estima...

  1. Model parameter uncertainty analysis for an annual field-scale phosphorus loss model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phosphorous (P) loss models are important tools for developing and evaluating conservation practices aimed at reducing P losses from agricultural fields. All P loss models, however, have an inherent amount of uncertainty associated with them. In this study, we conducted an uncertainty analysis with ...

  2. Uncertainty propagation analysis of an N2O emission model at the plot and landscape scale

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nol, L.; Heuvelink, G.B.M.; Veldkamp, A.; Vries, de W.; Kros, J.

    2010-01-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) emission from agricultural land is an important component of the total annual greenhouse gas (GHG) budget. In addition, uncertainties associated with agricultural N2O emissions are large. The goals of this work were (i) to quantify the uncertainties of modelled N2O emissions

  3. Sources of uncertainties in modelling black carbon at the global scale

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vignati, E.; Karl, M.; Krol, M.C.; Wilson, J.; Stier, P.; Cavalli, F.

    2010-01-01

    Our understanding of the global black carbon (BC) cycle is essentially qualitative due to uncertainties in our knowledge of its properties. This work investigates two source of uncertainties in modelling black carbon: those due to the use of different schemes for BC ageing and its removal rate in

  4. Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: a global-scale model comparison.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prestele, Reinhard; Alexander, Peter; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Arneth, Almut; Calvin, Katherine; Doelman, Jonathan; Eitelberg, David A; Engström, Kerstin; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Jain, Atul K; Krisztin, Tamás; Kyle, Page; Meiyappan, Prasanth; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald D; Schaldach, Rüdiger; Schüngel, Jan; Stehfest, Elke; Tabeau, Andrzej; Van Meijl, Hans; Van Vliet, Jasper; Verburg, Peter H

    2016-12-01

    Model-based global projections of future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios, we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g., boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process and improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches, and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC

  5. Large-scale determinants of diversity across Spanish forest habitats: accounting for model uncertainty in compositional and structural indicators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martin-Quller, E.; Torras, O.; Alberdi, I.; Solana, J.; Saura, S.

    2011-07-01

    An integral understanding of forest biodiversity requires the exploration of the many aspects it comprises and of the numerous potential determinants of their distribution. The landscape ecological approach provides a necessary complement to conventional local studies that focus on individual plots or forest ownerships. However, most previous landscape studies used equally-sized cells as units of analysis to identify the factors affecting forest biodiversity distribution. Stratification of the analysis by habitats with a relatively homogeneous forest composition might be more adequate to capture the underlying patterns associated to the formation and development of a particular ensemble of interacting forest species. Here we used a landscape perspective in order to improve our understanding on the influence of large-scale explanatory factors on forest biodiversity indicators in Spanish habitats, covering a wide latitudinal and attitudinal range. We considered six forest biodiversity indicators estimated from more than 30,000 field plots in the Spanish national forest inventory, distributed in 213 forest habitats over 16 Spanish provinces. We explored biodiversity response to various environmental (climate and topography) and landscape configuration (fragmentation and shape complexity) variables through multiple linear regression models (built and assessed through the Akaike Information Criterion). In particular, we took into account the inherent model uncertainty when dealing with a complex and large set of variables, and considered different plausible models and their probability of being the best candidate for the observed data. Our results showed that compositional indicators (species richness and diversity) were mostly explained by environmental factors. Models for structural indicators (standing deadwood and stand complexity) had the worst fits and selection uncertainties, but did show significant associations with some configuration metrics. In general

  6. SFR inverse modelling Part 2. Uncertainty factors of predicted flow in deposition tunnels and uncertainty in distribution of flow paths from deposition tunnels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmen, Johan

    2007-10-01

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co (SKB) is operating the SFR repository for low- and intermediate-level nuclear waste. An update of the safety analysis of SFR was carried out by SKB as the SAFE project (Safety Assessment of Final Disposal of Operational Radioactive Waste). The aim of the project was to update the safety analysis and to produce a safety report. The safety report has been submitted to the Swedish authorities. This study is a continuation of the SAFE project, and concerns the hydrogeological modelling of the SFR repository, which was carried out as part of the SAFE project, it describes the uncertainty in the tunnel flow and distributions of flow paths from the storage tunnels. Uncertainty factors are produced for two different flow situations, corresponding to 2,000 AD (the sea covers the repository) and 4,000 AD (the sea has retreated form the repository area). Uncertainty factors are produced for the different deposition tunnels. The uncertainty factors are discussed in Chapter 2 and two lists (matrix) of uncertainty factors have been delivered as a part of this study. Flow paths are produced for two different flow situations, corresponding to 2,000 AD (the sea covers the repository) and 5,000 AD (the sea has retreated form the repository area). Flow paths from the different deposition tunnels have been simulated, considering the above discussed base case and the 60 realisation that passed all tests of this base case. The flow paths are presented and discussed in Chapter 3 and files presenting the results of the flow path analyses have been delivered as part of this study. The uncertainty factors (see Chapter 2) are not independent from the flow path data (see Chapter 3). When stochastic calculations are performed by use of a transport model and the data presented in this study is used as input to such calculations, the corresponding uncertainty factors and flow path data should be used. This study also includes a brief discussion of

  7. Jet energy scale uncertainty correlations between ATLAS and CMS at $\\sqrt{s}=8$ TeV

    CERN Document Server

    The ATLAS collaboration

    2015-01-01

    An evaluation of the correlations between ATLAS and CMS jet energy scale uncertainties is presented for $\\sqrt{s}=8\\,\\mathrm{TeV}$ $pp$ collisions recorded in 2012. Uncertainties within each experiment are grouped based on the general type of systematic effect they are intended to cover and the means by which they are derived. Inter-experimental correlation value ranges are established for each corresponding group of uncertainty components. This correlation range is intended to cover the possible correlation values when performing combinations between the two experiments, where the most conservative value obtained from scanning over the correlation range should be used for the final combined measurement. The procedure described here is primarily aimed at single-observable analyses, and has limitations when applied to multi-observable measurements.

  8. Estimation of radon progeny equilibrium factors and their uncertainty bounds using solid state nuclear track detectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eappen, K.P.; Mayya, Y.S.; Patnaik, R.L.; Kushwaha, H.S.

    2006-01-01

    For the assessment of inhalation doses due to radon and its progeny to uranium mine workers, it is necessary to have information on the time integrated gas concentrations and equilibrium factors. Passive single cup dosimeters using solid state nuclear track detectors (SSNTD) are best suited for this purpose. These generally contain two SSNTDs, one placed inside the cup to measure only the radon gas concentration and other outside the cup for recording tracks due to both radon gas and the progeny species. However, since one obtains only two numbers by this method whereas information on four quantities is required for an unambiguous estimation of dose, there is a need for developing an optimal methodology for extracting information on the equilibrium factors. Several techniques proposed earlier have essentially been based on deterministic approaches, which do not fully take into account all the possible uncertainties in the environmental parameters. Keeping this in view, a simple 'mean of bounds' methodology is proposed to extract equilibrium factors based on their absolute bounds and the associated uncertainties as obtained from general arguments of radon progeny disequilibrium. This may be considered as reasonable estimates of the equilibrium factors in the absence of a knowledge of fluctuation in the environmental variables. The results are compared with those from direct measurements both in the laboratory and in real field situations. In view of the good agreement found between these, it is proposed that the simple mean of bounds estimate may be useful for practical applications in inhalation dosimetry of mine workers

  9. A Confirmatory Factor Analysis of Reilly's Role Overload Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiagarajan, Palaniappan; Chakrabarty, Subhra; Taylor, Ronald D.

    2006-01-01

    In 1982, Reilly developed a 13-item scale to measure role overload. This scale has been widely used, but most studies did not assess the unidimensionality of the scale. Given the significance of unidimensionality in scale development, the current study reports a confirmatory factor analysis of the 13-item scale in two samples. Based on the…

  10. Introduction of risk size in the determination of uncertainty factor UFL in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xue Jinling; Lu Yun; Velasquez, Natalia; Hu Hongying; Yu Ruozhen; Liu Zhengtao; Meng Wei

    2012-01-01

    The methodology for using uncertainty factors in health risk assessment has been developed for several decades. A default value is usually applied for the uncertainty factor UF L , which is used to extrapolate from LOAEL (lowest observed adverse effect level) to NAEL (no adverse effect level). Here, we have developed a new method that establishes a linear relationship between UF L and the additional risk level at LOAEL based on the dose–response information, which represents a very important factor that should be carefully considered. This linear formula makes it possible to select UF L properly in the additional risk range from 5.3% to 16.2%. Also the results remind us that the default value 10 may not be conservative enough when the additional risk level at LOAEL exceeds 16.2%. Furthermore, this novel method not only provides a flexible UF L instead of the traditional default value, but also can ensure a conservative estimation of the UF L with fewer errors, and avoid the benchmark response selection involved in the benchmark dose method. These advantages can improve the estimation of the extrapolation starting point in the risk assessment. (letter)

  11. Lidar aboveground vegetation biomass estimates in shrublands: Prediction, uncertainties and application to coarser scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Aihua; Dhakal, Shital; Glenn, Nancy F.; Spaete, Luke P.; Shinneman, Douglas; Pilliod, David S.; Arkle, Robert; McIlroy, Susan

    2017-01-01

    Our study objectives were to model the aboveground biomass in a xeric shrub-steppe landscape with airborne light detection and ranging (Lidar) and explore the uncertainty associated with the models we created. We incorporated vegetation vertical structure information obtained from Lidar with ground-measured biomass data, allowing us to scale shrub biomass from small field sites (1 m subplots and 1 ha plots) to a larger landscape. A series of airborne Lidar-derived vegetation metrics were trained and linked with the field-measured biomass in Random Forests (RF) regression models. A Stepwise Multiple Regression (SMR) model was also explored as a comparison. Our results demonstrated that the important predictors from Lidar-derived metrics had a strong correlation with field-measured biomass in the RF regression models with a pseudo R2 of 0.76 and RMSE of 125 g/m2 for shrub biomass and a pseudo R2 of 0.74 and RMSE of 141 g/m2 for total biomass, and a weak correlation with field-measured herbaceous biomass. The SMR results were similar but slightly better than RF, explaining 77–79% of the variance, with RMSE ranging from 120 to 129 g/m2 for shrub and total biomass, respectively. We further explored the computational efficiency and relative accuracies of using point cloud and raster Lidar metrics at different resolutions (1 m to 1 ha). Metrics derived from the Lidar point cloud processing led to improved biomass estimates at nearly all resolutions in comparison to raster-derived Lidar metrics. Only at 1 m were the results from the point cloud and raster products nearly equivalent. The best Lidar prediction models of biomass at the plot-level (1 ha) were achieved when Lidar metrics were derived from an average of fine resolution (1 m) metrics to minimize boundary effects and to smooth variability. Overall, both RF and SMR methods explained more than 74% of the variance in biomass, with the most important Lidar variables being associated with vegetation structure

  12. Predicting the performance uncertainty of a 1-MW pilot-scale carbon capture system after hierarchical laboratory-scale calibration and validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Zhijie; Lai, Canhai; Marcy, Peter William; Dietiker, Jean-François; Li, Tingwen; Sarkar, Avik; Sun, Xin

    2017-05-01

    A challenging problem in designing pilot-scale carbon capture systems is to predict, with uncertainty, the adsorber performance and capture efficiency under various operating conditions where no direct experimental data exist. Motivated by this challenge, we previously proposed a hierarchical framework in which relevant parameters of physical models were sequentially calibrated from different laboratory-scale carbon capture unit (C2U) experiments. Specifically, three models of increasing complexity were identified based on the fundamental physical and chemical processes of the sorbent-based carbon capture technology. Results from the corresponding laboratory experiments were used to statistically calibrate the physical model parameters while quantifying some of their inherent uncertainty. The parameter distributions obtained from laboratory-scale C2U calibration runs are used in this study to facilitate prediction at a larger scale where no corresponding experimental results are available. In this paper, we first describe the multiphase reactive flow model for a sorbent-based 1-MW carbon capture system then analyze results from an ensemble of simulations with the upscaled model. The simulation results are used to quantify uncertainty regarding the design’s predicted efficiency in carbon capture. In particular, we determine the minimum gas flow rate necessary to achieve 90% capture efficiency with 95% confidence.

  13. The Effects of Uncertainty in Speed-Flow Curve Parameters on a Large-Scale Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzo, Stefano; Nielsen, Otto Anker; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2014-01-01

    -delay functions express travel time as a function of traffic flows and the theoretical capacity of the modeled facility. The U.S. Bureau of Public Roads (BPR) formula is one of the most extensively applied volume delay functions in practice. This study investigated uncertainty in the BPR parameters. Initially......-stage Danish national transport model. The results clearly highlight the importance to modeling purposes of taking into account BPR formula parameter uncertainty, expressed as a distribution of values rather than assumed point values. Indeed, the model output demonstrates a noticeable sensitivity to parameter...

  14. INFLUENCE OF UNCERTAINTY FACTOR ON DEVELOPMENT OF ECONOMIC CRISIS IN RUSSIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. A. Rudyakov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Observing development of the crisis in the Russian economy, it appears that one of the reasons for the decline in the economic development is an increasing degree of uncertainty. The situation affects investment processes and multiplies itself in a growing deficiency of national income. High uncertainty blocks investments in capital-intensive and specific assets and makes economic entities transfer their resources into financial sector and, most often, outside the economy. 49 % of fixed industrial assets depreciation is an indirect proof of this situation. Depreciation of the Russian fixed assets in mining operations is 53.2 %, which includes 22.9 % of fully depreciated assets. At present, when the coefficient of renewal in this branch of ndustry is a little more than 6 and the coefficient of retirement is 0.9, the situation seems to be disastrous. There are a lot of reasons for such situation, especially in the economic sphere. One of them is that within the neoliberal ideology dominating in the economic science with its emphasis on the automatic spontaneous adaptation there is actually no place for development of recommendations for a willful increase in efficiency of adaptation to uncertainty. After all, if we consider that the market leads the entire system to the most optimum equilibrium state, a need for such development simply does not arise. The main objective of this work is to show how the uncertainty factor increases recessionary trends in the Russian economy. Applying Keynesian analysis technique and dividing all savings into investment and hoarding ones, the author proves that Russia has a very low level of adaptive efficiency which reflects long-term ability of the economy to adjust successfully to changing internal and external conditions without any detriment to the implementation of the intended targets and tasks. It is a low level of adaptive efficiency that makes the current crisis so severe. The application of different

  15. Safety assessment of boron by application of new uncertainty factors and their subdivision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasegawa, Ryuichi; Hirata-Koizumi, Mutsuko; Dourson, Michael L; Parker, Ann; Ono, Atsushi; Hirose, Akihiko

    2013-02-01

    The available toxicity information for boron was reevaluated and four appropriate toxicity studies were selected in order to derive a tolerable daily intake (TDI) using newly proposed uncertainty factors (UFs) presented in Hasegawa et al. (2010). No observed adverse effect levels (NOAELs) of 17.5 and 8.8 mgB/kg/day for the critical effect of testicular toxicity were found in 2-year rat and dog feeding studies. Also, the 95% lower confidence limit of the benchmark doses for 5% reduction of fetal body weight (BMDL(05)) was calculated as 44.9 and 10.3 mgB/kg/day in mouse and rat developmental toxicity studies, respectively. Measured values available for differences in boron clearance between rats and humans and variability in the glomerular filtration rate (GFR) in pregnant women were used to derive chemical specific UFs. For the remaining uncertainty, newly proposed default UFs, which were derived from the latest applicable information with a probabilistic approach, and their subdivided factors for toxicokinetic and toxicodynamic variability were applied. Finally, overall UFs were calculated as 68 for rat testicular toxicity, 40 for dog testicular toxicity, 247 for mouse developmental toxicity and 78 for rat developmental toxicity. It is concluded that 0.13 mgB/kg/day is the most appropriate TDI for boron, based on rat developmental toxicity. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Novel patch modelling method for efficient simulation and prediction uncertainty analysis of multi-scale groundwater flow and transport processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sreekanth, J.; Moore, Catherine

    2018-04-01

    The application of global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis techniques to groundwater models of deep sedimentary basins are typically challenged by large computational burdens combined with associated numerical stability issues. The highly parameterized approaches required for exploring the predictive uncertainty associated with the heterogeneous hydraulic characteristics of multiple aquifers and aquitards in these sedimentary basins exacerbate these issues. A novel Patch Modelling Methodology is proposed for improving the computational feasibility of stochastic modelling analysis of large-scale and complex groundwater models. The method incorporates a nested groundwater modelling framework that enables efficient simulation of groundwater flow and transport across multiple spatial and temporal scales. The method also allows different processes to be simulated within different model scales. Existing nested model methodologies are extended by employing 'joining predictions' for extrapolating prediction-salient information from one model scale to the next. This establishes a feedback mechanism supporting the transfer of information from child models to parent models as well as parent models to child models in a computationally efficient manner. This feedback mechanism is simple and flexible and ensures that while the salient small scale features influencing larger scale prediction are transferred back to the larger scale, this does not require the live coupling of models. This method allows the modelling of multiple groundwater flow and transport processes using separate groundwater models that are built for the appropriate spatial and temporal scales, within a stochastic framework, while also removing the computational burden associated with live model coupling. The utility of the method is demonstrated by application to an actual large scale aquifer injection scheme in Australia.

  17. Dispelling urban myths about default uncertainty factors in chemical risk assessment--sufficient protection against mixture effects?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Olwenn V; Martin, Scholze; Kortenkamp, Andreas

    2013-07-01

    Assessing the detrimental health effects of chemicals requires the extrapolation of experimental data in animals to human populations. This is achieved by applying a default uncertainty factor of 100 to doses not found to be associated with observable effects in laboratory animals. It is commonly assumed that the toxicokinetic and toxicodynamic sub-components of this default uncertainty factor represent worst-case scenarios and that the multiplication of those components yields conservative estimates of safe levels for humans. It is sometimes claimed that this conservatism also offers adequate protection from mixture effects. By analysing the evolution of uncertainty factors from a historical perspective, we expose that the default factor and its sub-components are intended to represent adequate rather than worst-case scenarios. The intention of using assessment factors for mixture effects was abandoned thirty years ago. It is also often ignored that the conservatism (or otherwise) of uncertainty factors can only be considered in relation to a defined level of protection. A protection equivalent to an effect magnitude of 0.001-0.0001% over background incidence is generally considered acceptable. However, it is impossible to say whether this level of protection is in fact realised with the tolerable doses that are derived by employing uncertainty factors. Accordingly, it is difficult to assess whether uncertainty factors overestimate or underestimate the sensitivity differences in human populations. It is also often not appreciated that the outcome of probabilistic approaches to the multiplication of sub-factors is dependent on the choice of probability distributions. Therefore, the idea that default uncertainty factors are overly conservative worst-case scenarios which can account both for the lack of statistical power in animal experiments and protect against potential mixture effects is ill-founded. We contend that precautionary regulation should provide an

  18. Dispelling urban myths about default uncertainty factors in chemical risk assessment – sufficient protection against mixture effects?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Assessing the detrimental health effects of chemicals requires the extrapolation of experimental data in animals to human populations. This is achieved by applying a default uncertainty factor of 100 to doses not found to be associated with observable effects in laboratory animals. It is commonly assumed that the toxicokinetic and toxicodynamic sub-components of this default uncertainty factor represent worst-case scenarios and that the multiplication of those components yields conservative estimates of safe levels for humans. It is sometimes claimed that this conservatism also offers adequate protection from mixture effects. By analysing the evolution of uncertainty factors from a historical perspective, we expose that the default factor and its sub-components are intended to represent adequate rather than worst-case scenarios. The intention of using assessment factors for mixture effects was abandoned thirty years ago. It is also often ignored that the conservatism (or otherwise) of uncertainty factors can only be considered in relation to a defined level of protection. A protection equivalent to an effect magnitude of 0.001-0.0001% over background incidence is generally considered acceptable. However, it is impossible to say whether this level of protection is in fact realised with the tolerable doses that are derived by employing uncertainty factors. Accordingly, it is difficult to assess whether uncertainty factors overestimate or underestimate the sensitivity differences in human populations. It is also often not appreciated that the outcome of probabilistic approaches to the multiplication of sub-factors is dependent on the choice of probability distributions. Therefore, the idea that default uncertainty factors are overly conservative worst-case scenarios which can account both for the lack of statistical power in animal experiments and protect against potential mixture effects is ill-founded. We contend that precautionary regulation should provide an

  19. Factors and uncertainties in the profitability of using nuclear energy in desalination of water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thiriet, L.; Lievre, P.

    1969-01-01

    One of the economic advantages of nuclear energy consists of the small proportional element in its cost structure. Economies of scale favour the nuclear station as compared with the conventional thermal one, and when the demand for electricity and heat, in particular for desalination, are sufficient, nuclear energy may, subject to certain conditions, prove advantageous. The object of this paper is to discuss the validity of the conclusions reached according to the hypotheses adopted. In the first part, the different kind of uncertainties connected with technical, economic and financial data (the various transmission coefficients, the life of equipment according to the choice of materials, changes in prices, the form of price functions and interest rates), and with the various constraints, are examined and discussed. In the second part the uncertainties connected with the method of optimisation used and the criterion of selection adopted are examined and discussed. It is shown thereby that it is usually extremely difficult to assume absolutely the competitiveness, or conversely the non-competitiveness, of using nuclear energy in the desalination of water, and that a large number of aspects have to be carefully examined. (author) [fr

  20. Estimation of a Reactor Core Power Peaking Factor Using Support Vector Regression and Uncertainty Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bae, In Ho; Naa, Man Gyun; Lee, Yoon Joon; Park, Goon Cherl

    2009-01-01

    The monitoring of detailed 3-dimensional (3D) reactor core power distribution is a prerequisite in the operation of nuclear power reactors to ensure that various safety limits imposed on the LPD and DNBR, are not violated during nuclear power reactor operation. The LPD and DNBR should be calculated in order to perform the two major functions of the core protection calculator system (CPCS) and the core operation limit supervisory system (COLSS). The LPD at the hottest part of a hot fuel rod, which is related to the power peaking factor (PPF, F q ), is more important than the LPD at any other position in a reactor core. The LPD needs to be estimated accurately to prevent nuclear fuel rods from melting. In this study, support vector regression (SVR) and uncertainty analysis have been applied to estimation of reactor core power peaking factor

  1. Quantifying reactor safety margins: Part 1: An overview of the code scaling, applicability, and uncertainty evaluation methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boyack, B.E.; Duffey, R.B.; Griffith, P.

    1988-01-01

    In August 1988, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) approved the final version of a revised rule on the acceptance of emergency core cooling systems (ECCS) entitled ''Emergency Core Cooling System; Revisions to Acceptance Criteria.'' The revised rule states an alternate ECCS performance analysis, based on best-estimate methods, may be used to provide more realistic estimates of plant safety margins, provided the licensee quantifies the uncertainty of the estimates and included that uncertainty when comparing the calculated results with prescribed acceptance limits. To support the revised ECCS rule, the NRC and its contractors and consultants have developed and demonstrated a method called the Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty (CSAU) evaluation methodology. It is an auditable, traceable, and practical method for combining quantitative analyses and expert opinions to arrive at computed values of uncertainty. This paper provides an overview of the CSAU evaluation methodology and its application to a postulated cold-leg, large-break loss-of-coolant accident in a Westinghouse four-loop pressurized water reactor with 17 /times/ 17 fuel. The code selected for this demonstration of the CSAU methodology was TRAC-PF1/MOD1, Version 14.3. 23 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab

  2. Uncertainties in modelling and scaling of critical flows and pump model in TRAC-PF1/MOD1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rohatgi, U.S.; Yu, Wen-Shi.

    1987-01-01

    The USNRC has established a Code Scalability, Applicability and Uncertainty (CSAU) evaluation methodology to quantify the uncertainty in the prediction of safety parameters by the best estimate codes. These codes can then be applied to evaluate the Emergency Core Cooling System (ECCS). The TRAC-PF1/MOD1 version was selected as the first code to undergo the CSAU analysis for LBLOCA applications. It was established through this methodology that break flow and pump models are among the top ranked models in the code affecting the peak clad temperature (PCT) prediction for LBLOCA. The break flow model bias or discrepancy and the uncertainty were determined by modelling the test section near the break for 12 Marviken tests. It was observed that the TRAC-PF1/MOD1 code consistently underpredicts the break flow rate and that the prediction improved with increasing pipe length (larger L/D). This is true for both subcooled and two-phase critical flows. A pump model was developed from Westinghouse (1/3 scale) data. The data represent the largest available test pump relevant to Westinghouse PWRs. It was then shown through the analysis of CE and CREARE pump data that larger pumps degrade less and also that pumps degrade less at higher pressures. Since the model developed here is based on the 1/3 scale pump and on low pressure data, it is conservative and will overpredict the degradation when applied to PWRs

  3. Systematic uncertainties in the Monte Carlo calculation of ion chamber replacement correction factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, L. L. W.; La Russa, D. J.; Rogers, D. W. O. [Ottawa Carleton Institute of Physics, Carleton University, Campus Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario KIS 5B6 (Canada)

    2009-05-15

    In a previous study [Med. Phys. 35, 1747-1755 (2008)], the authors proposed two direct methods of calculating the replacement correction factors (P{sub repl} or p{sub cav}p{sub dis}) for ion chambers by Monte Carlo calculation. By ''direct'' we meant the stopping-power ratio evaluation is not necessary. The two methods were named as the high-density air (HDA) and low-density water (LDW) methods. Although the accuracy of these methods was briefly discussed, it turns out that the assumption made regarding the dose in an HDA slab as a function of slab thickness is not correct. This issue is reinvestigated in the current study, and the accuracy of the LDW method applied to ion chambers in a {sup 60}Co photon beam is also studied. It is found that the two direct methods are in fact not completely independent of the stopping-power ratio of the two materials involved. There is an implicit dependence of the calculated P{sub repl} values upon the stopping-power ratio evaluation through the choice of an appropriate energy cutoff {Delta}, which characterizes a cavity size in the Spencer-Attix cavity theory. Since the {Delta} value is not accurately defined in the theory, this dependence on the stopping-power ratio results in a systematic uncertainty on the calculated P{sub repl} values. For phantom materials of similar effective atomic number to air, such as water and graphite, this systematic uncertainty is at most 0.2% for most commonly used chambers for either electron or photon beams. This uncertainty level is good enough for current ion chamber dosimetry, and the merits of the two direct methods of calculating P{sub repl} values are maintained, i.e., there is no need to do a separate stopping-power ratio calculation. For high-Z materials, the inherent uncertainty would make it practically impossible to calculate reliable P{sub repl} values using the two direct methods.

  4. Two-stage stochastic programming model for the regional-scale electricity planning under demand uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Yun-Hsun; Wu, Jung-Hua; Hsu, Yu-Ju

    2016-01-01

    Traditional electricity supply planning models regard the electricity demand as a deterministic parameter and require the total power output to satisfy the aggregate electricity demand. But in today's world, the electric system planners are facing tremendously complex environments full of uncertainties, where electricity demand is a key source of uncertainty. In addition, electricity demand patterns are considerably different for different regions. This paper developed a multi-region optimization model based on two-stage stochastic programming framework to incorporate the demand uncertainty. Furthermore, the decision tree method and Monte Carlo simulation approach are integrated into the model to simplify electricity demands in the form of nodes and determine the values and probabilities. The proposed model was successfully applied to a real case study (i.e. Taiwan's electricity sector) to show its applicability. Detail simulation results were presented and compared with those generated by a deterministic model. Finally, the long-term electricity development roadmap at a regional level could be provided on the basis of our simulation results. - Highlights: • A multi-region, two-stage stochastic programming model has been developed. • The decision tree and Monte Carlo simulation are integrated into the framework. • Taiwan's electricity sector is used to illustrate the applicability of the model. • The results under deterministic and stochastic cases are shown for comparison. • Optimal portfolios of regional generation technologies can be identified.

  5. CSAU (code scaling, applicability and uncertainty), a tool to prioritize advanced reactor research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, G.E.; Boyack, B.E.

    1990-01-01

    Best Estimate computer codes have been accepted by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission as an optional tool for performing safety analysis related to the licensing and regulation of current nuclear reactors producing commercial electrical power, providing their uncertainty is quantified. In support of this policy change, the NRC and its contractors and consultants have developed and demonstrated an uncertainty quantification methodology called CSAU. At the process level, the method is generic to any application which relies on best estimate computer code simulations to determine safe operating margins. The primary use of the CSAU methodology is to quantify safety margins for existing designs; however, the methodology can also serve an equally important role in advanced reactor research for plants not yet built. Applied early, during the period when alternate designs are being evaluated, the methodology can identify the relative importance of the sources of uncertainty in the knowledge of each plant behavior and, thereby, help prioritize the research needed to bring the new designs to fruition. This paper describes the CSAU methodology, at the generic process level, and provides the general principles whereby it may be applied to evaluations of advanced reactor designs. 9 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

  6. Probabilistic Approach to Enable Extreme-Scale Simulations under Uncertainty and System Faults. Final Technical Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knio, Omar [Duke Univ., Durham, NC (United States). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering and Materials Science

    2017-05-05

    The current project develops a novel approach that uses a probabilistic description to capture the current state of knowledge about the computational solution. To effectively spread the computational effort over multiple nodes, the global computational domain is split into many subdomains. Computational uncertainty in the solution translates into uncertain boundary conditions for the equation system to be solved on those subdomains, and many independent, concurrent subdomain simulations are used to account for this bound- ary condition uncertainty. By relying on the fact that solutions on neighboring subdomains must agree with each other, a more accurate estimate for the global solution can be achieved. Statistical approaches in this update process make it possible to account for the effect of system faults in the probabilistic description of the computational solution, and the associated uncertainty is reduced through successive iterations. By combining all of these elements, the probabilistic reformulation allows splitting the computational work over very many independent tasks for good scalability, while being robust to system faults.

  7. Modeling and solving a large-scale generation expansion planning problem under uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jin, Shan; Ryan, Sarah M. [Iowa State University, Department of Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering, Ames (United States); Watson, Jean-Paul [Sandia National Laboratories, Discrete Math and Complex Systems Department, Albuquerque (United States); Woodruff, David L. [University of California Davis, Graduate School of Management, Davis (United States)

    2011-11-15

    We formulate a generation expansion planning problem to determine the type and quantity of power plants to be constructed over each year of an extended planning horizon, considering uncertainty regarding future demand and fuel prices. Our model is expressed as a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer program, which we use to compute solutions independently minimizing the expected cost and the Conditional Value-at-Risk; i.e., the risk of significantly larger-than-expected operational costs. We introduce stochastic process models to capture demand and fuel price uncertainty, which are in turn used to generate trees that accurately represent the uncertainty space. Using a realistic problem instance based on the Midwest US, we explore two fundamental, unexplored issues that arise when solving any stochastic generation expansion model. First, we introduce and discuss the use of an algorithm for computing confidence intervals on obtained solution costs, to account for the fact that a finite sample of scenarios was used to obtain a particular solution. Second, we analyze the nature of solutions obtained under different parameterizations of this method, to assess whether the recommended solutions themselves are invariant to changes in costs. The issues are critical for decision makers who seek truly robust recommendations for generation expansion planning. (orig.)

  8. Uncertainties in coupled thermal-hydrological processes associated with the drift scale test at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mukhopadhyay, Sumitra; Tsang, Y.W.

    2002-01-01

    Understanding thermally driven coupled hydrological, mechanical, and chemical processes in unsaturated fractured tuff is essential for evaluating the performance of the potential radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The Drift Scale Test (DST), intended for acquiring such an understanding of these processes, has generated a huge volume of temperature and moisture redistribution data. Sophisticated thermal hydrological (TH) conceptual models have yielded a good fit between simulation results and those measured data. However, some uncertainties in understanding the TH processes associated with the DST still exist. This paper evaluates these uncertainties and provides quantitative estimates of the range of these uncertainties. Of particular interest for the DST are the uncertainties resulting from the unmonitored loss of vapor through an open bulkhead of the test. There was concern that the outcome from the test might have been significantly altered by these losses. Using alternative conceptual models, we illustrate that predicted mean temperatures from the DST are within 1 degree C of the measured mean temperatures through the first two years of heating. The simulated spatial and temporal evolution of drying and condensation fronts is found to be qualitatively consistent with measured saturation data. Energy and mass balance computation shows that no more than 13 percent of the input energy is lost because of vapor leaving the test domain through the bulkhead. The change in average saturation in fractures is also relatively small. For a hypothetical situation in which no vapor is allowed to exit through the bulkhead, the simulated average fracture saturation is not qualitatively different enough to be discerned by measured moisture redistribution data. This leads us to conclude that the DST, despite the uncertainties associated with open field testing, has provided an excellent understanding of the TH processes

  9. Identification of the Uncertainties for the Calibration of the Partial Safety Factors for Load in Tidal Turbines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaizka Zarraonandia Simeón

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Tidal energy is nowadays one of the fastest growing types of marine renewable energy. In particular, Horizontal Axis Tidal Turbines (HATTs are the most advanced designs and the most appropriate for standardization. This paper presents a review of actual design criteria focusing on the identification of the uncertainties that technology developers need to address during the design process. Key environmental parameters like turbine inflow conditions or predictions of extreme values are still grey areas due to the lack of site measurements and the uncertainty in metocean model predictions. A comparison of turbulence intensity characterization using different tools and at different points in time shows the uncertainty in the prediction of this parameter. Numerical models of HATTs are still quite uncertain, often dependent on experience of the people running them. In the reliability-based calibration of partial safety factors, the uncertainties need to be reflected on the limit state formulation. This paper analyses the different types of uncertainties present in the limit state equation. These uncertainties are assessed in terms of stochastic variables in the limit state equation. In some cases, advantage can be taken from the experience from offshore wind and oil and gas industries. Tidal turbines have a mixture of the uncertainties present in both industries with regard to partial safety factor calibration.

  10. A generalized Levene's scale test for variance heterogeneity in the presence of sample correlation and group uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soave, David; Sun, Lei

    2017-09-01

    We generalize Levene's test for variance (scale) heterogeneity between k groups for more complex data, when there are sample correlation and group membership uncertainty. Following a two-stage regression framework, we show that least absolute deviation regression must be used in the stage 1 analysis to ensure a correct asymptotic χk-12/(k-1) distribution of the generalized scale (gS) test statistic. We then show that the proposed gS test is independent of the generalized location test, under the joint null hypothesis of no mean and no variance heterogeneity. Consequently, we generalize the recently proposed joint location-scale (gJLS) test, valuable in settings where there is an interaction effect but one interacting variable is not available. We evaluate the proposed method via an extensive simulation study and two genetic association application studies. © 2017 The Authors Biometrics published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Biometric Society.

  11. Uncertainty quantification of fast sodium current steady-state inactivation for multi-scale models of cardiac electrophysiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pathmanathan, Pras; Shotwell, Matthew S; Gavaghan, David J; Cordeiro, Jonathan M; Gray, Richard A

    2015-01-01

    Perhaps the most mature area of multi-scale systems biology is the modelling of the heart. Current models are grounded in over fifty years of research in the development of biophysically detailed models of the electrophysiology (EP) of cardiac cells, but one aspect which is inadequately addressed is the incorporation of uncertainty and physiological variability. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the identification and characterisation of the uncertainty in model parameters derived from experimental data, and the computation of the resultant uncertainty in model outputs. It is a necessary tool for establishing the credibility of computational models, and will likely be expected of EP models for future safety-critical clinical applications. The focus of this paper is formal UQ of one major sub-component of cardiac EP models, the steady-state inactivation of the fast sodium current, INa. To better capture average behaviour and quantify variability across cells, we have applied for the first time an 'individual-based' statistical methodology to assess voltage clamp data. Advantages of this approach over a more traditional 'population-averaged' approach are highlighted. The method was used to characterise variability amongst cells isolated from canine epi and endocardium, and this variability was then 'propagated forward' through a canine model to determine the resultant uncertainty in model predictions at different scales, such as of upstroke velocity and spiral wave dynamics. Statistically significant differences between epi and endocardial cells (greater half-inactivation and less steep slope of steady state inactivation curve for endo) was observed, and the forward propagation revealed a lack of robustness of the model to underlying variability, but also surprising robustness to variability at the tissue scale. Overall, the methodology can be used to: (i) better analyse voltage clamp data; (ii) characterise underlying population variability; (iii) investigate

  12. Uncertainty analysis of multiple canister repository model by large-scale calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsujimoto, K.; Okuda, H.; Ahn, J.

    2007-01-01

    A prototype uncertainty analysis has been made by using the multiple-canister radionuclide transport code, VR, for performance assessment for the high-level radioactive waste repository. Fractures in the host rock determine main conduit of groundwater, and thus significantly affect the magnitude of radionuclide release rates from the repository. In this study, the probability distribution function (PDF) for the number of connected canisters in the same fracture cluster that bears water flow has been determined in a Monte-Carlo fashion by running the FFDF code with assumed PDFs for fracture geometry. The uncertainty for the release rate of 237 Np from a hypothetical repository containing 100 canisters has been quantitatively evaluated by using the VR code with PDFs for the number of connected canisters and the near field rock porosity. The calculation results show that the mass transport is greatly affected by (1) the magnitude of the radionuclide source determined by the number of connected canisters by the fracture cluster, and (2) the canister concentration effect in the same fracture network. The results also show the two conflicting tendencies that the more fractures in the repository model space, the greater average value but the smaller uncertainty of the peak fractional release rate is. To perform a vast amount of calculation, we have utilized the Earth Simulator and SR8000. The multi-level hybrid programming method is applied in the optimization to exploit high performance of the Earth Simulator. The Latin Hypercube Sampling has been utilized to reduce the number of samplings in Monte-Carlo calculation. (authors)

  13. Factor Structure of the Exercise Self-Efficacy Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornick, Jessica E.

    2015-01-01

    The current study utilized exercise self-efficacy ratings from undergraduate students to assess the factor structure of the Self-Efficacy to Regulate Exercise Scale (Bandura, 1997, 2006). An exploratory factor analysis (n = 759) indicated a two-factor model solution and three separate confirmatory factor analyses (n = 1,798) supported this…

  14. Multi-fidelity uncertainty quantification in large-scale predictive simulations of turbulent flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geraci, Gianluca; Jofre-Cruanyes, Lluis; Iaccarino, Gianluca

    2017-11-01

    The performance characterization of complex engineering systems often relies on accurate, but computationally intensive numerical simulations. It is also well recognized that in order to obtain a reliable numerical prediction the propagation of uncertainties needs to be included. Therefore, Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) plays a fundamental role in building confidence in predictive science. Despite the great improvement in recent years, even the more advanced UQ algorithms are still limited to fairly simplified applications and only moderate parameter dimensionality. Moreover, in the case of extremely large dimensionality, sampling methods, i.e. Monte Carlo (MC) based approaches, appear to be the only viable alternative. In this talk we describe and compare a family of approaches which aim to accelerate the convergence of standard MC simulations. These methods are based on hierarchies of generalized numerical resolutions (multi-level) or model fidelities (multi-fidelity), and attempt to leverage the correlation between Low- and High-Fidelity (HF) models to obtain a more accurate statistical estimator without introducing additional HF realizations. The performance of these methods are assessed on an irradiated particle laden turbulent flow (PSAAP II solar energy receiver). This investigation was funded by the United States Department of Energy's (DoE) National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) under the Predicitive Science Academic Alliance Program (PSAAP) II at Stanford University.

  15. Scale changes in air quality modelling and assessment of associated uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Korsakissok, Irene

    2009-01-01

    After an introduction of issues related to a scale change in the field of air quality (existing scales for emissions, transport, turbulence and loss processes, hierarchy of data and models, methods of scale change), the author first presents Gaussian models which have been implemented within the Polyphemus modelling platform. These models are assessed by comparison with experimental observations and with other commonly used Gaussian models. The second part reports the coupling of the puff-based Gaussian model with the Eulerian Polair3D model for the sub-mesh processing of point sources. This coupling is assessed at the continental scale for a passive tracer, and at the regional scale for photochemistry. Different statistical methods are assessed

  16. Can we do better than the grid survey: Optimal synoptic surveys in presence of variable uncertainty and decorrelation scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frolov, Sergey; Garau, Bartolame; Bellingham, James

    2014-08-01

    Regular grid ("lawnmower") survey is a classical strategy for synoptic sampling of the ocean. Is it possible to achieve a more effective use of available resources if one takes into account a priori knowledge about variability in magnitudes of uncertainty and decorrelation scales? In this article, we develop and compare the performance of several path-planning algorithms: optimized "lawnmower," a graph-search algorithm (A*), and a fully nonlinear genetic algorithm. We use the machinery of the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE) to quantify the ability of a vehicle fleet to synoptically map distribution of phytoplankton off the central California coast. We used satellite and in situ data to specify covariance information required by the BLUE estimator. Computational experiments showed that two types of sampling strategies are possible: a suboptimal space-filling design (produced by the "lawnmower" and the A* algorithms) and an optimal uncertainty-aware design (produced by the genetic algorithm). Unlike the space-filling designs that attempted to cover the entire survey area, the optimal design focused on revisiting areas of high uncertainty. Results of the multivehicle experiments showed that fleet performance predictors, such as cumulative speed or the weight of the fleet, predicted the performance of a homogeneous fleet well; however, these were poor predictors for comparing the performance of different platforms.

  17. The Lesbian, Gay, and Bisexual Identity Scale: Factor Analytic Evidence and Associations with Health and Well-Being

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cramer, Robert J.; Burks, Alixandra C.; Golom, Frank D.; Stroud, Caroline H.; Graham, James L.

    2017-01-01

    We tested the psychometric properties of the Lesbian, Gay, and Bisexual Identity Scale. Findings included (1) a three-factor structure (i.e., Negative Identity, Identity Uncertainty, Identity Superiority); (2) less positive identities among HIV-positive persons, African Americans, males, and bisexuals; and (3) convergent patterns with subjective…

  18. Conversion factor and uncertainty estimation for quantification of towed gamma-ray detector measurements in Tohoku coastal waters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohnishi, S.; Thornton, B.; Kamada, S.; Hirao, Y.; Ura, T.; Odano, N.

    2016-01-01

    Factors to convert the count rate of a NaI(Tl) scintillation detector to the concentration of radioactive cesium in marine sediments are estimated for a towed gamma-ray detector system. The response of the detector against a unit concentration of radioactive cesium is calculated by Monte Carlo radiation transport simulation considering the vertical profile of radioactive material measured in core samples. The conversion factors are acquired by integrating the contribution of each layer and are normalized by the concentration in the surface sediment layer. At the same time, the uncertainty of the conversion factors are formulated and estimated. The combined standard uncertainty of the radioactive cesium concentration by the towed gamma-ray detector is around 25 percent. The values of uncertainty, often referred to as relative root mean squat errors in other works, between sediment core sampling measurements and towed detector measurements were 16 percent in the investigation made near the Abukuma River mouth and 5.2 percent in Sendai Bay, respectively. Most of the uncertainty is due to interpolation of the conversion factors between core samples and uncertainty of the detector's burial depth. The results of the towed measurements agree well with laboratory analysed sediment samples. Also, the concentrations of radioactive cesium at the intersection of each survey line are consistent. The consistency with sampling results and between different lines' transects demonstrate the availability and reproducibility of towed gamma-ray detector system.

  19. Uncertainty Evaluation of the Thermal Expansion of Gd2O3-ZrO2 with a System Calibration Factor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Chang Je; Kang, Kweon Ho; Na, Sang Ho; Song, Kee Chan

    2007-01-01

    Both gadolinia (Gd 2 O 3 ) and zirconia (ZrO 2 ) are widely used in the nuclear industry, including a burnable absorber and additives in the fabrication of a simulated fuel. Thermal expansions of a mixture of gadolinia (Gd 2 O 3 ) 20 mol% and zirconia (ZrO 2 ) 80 mol% were measured by using a dilatometer (DIL402C) from room temperature to 1500 .deg. C. Uncertainties in the measurement should be quantified based on statistics. Referring to the ISO (International Organization for Standardization) guide, the uncertainties of the thermal expansion were quantified for three parts - the initial length, the length variation, and the system calibration factor. The whole system, the dilatometer, is composed of many complex sub-systems and in fact it is difficult to consider all the uncertainties of the sub-systems. Thus, the system calibration factor was introduced with a standard material for the uncertainty evaluation. In this study, a new system calibration factor was formulated in a multiplicative way. Further, the effect of calibration factor with random deviation was investigated for the uncertainty evaluation of a thermal expansion

  20. Conversion factor and uncertainty estimation for quantification of towed gamma-ray detector measurements in Tohoku coastal waters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ohnishi, S., E-mail: ohnishi@nmri.go.jp [National Maritime Research Institute, 6-38-1, Shinkawa, Mitaka, Tokyo 181-0004 (Japan); Thornton, B. [Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, 4-6-1, Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 153-8505 (Japan); Kamada, S.; Hirao, Y.; Ura, T.; Odano, N. [National Maritime Research Institute, 6-38-1, Shinkawa, Mitaka, Tokyo 181-0004 (Japan)

    2016-05-21

    Factors to convert the count rate of a NaI(Tl) scintillation detector to the concentration of radioactive cesium in marine sediments are estimated for a towed gamma-ray detector system. The response of the detector against a unit concentration of radioactive cesium is calculated by Monte Carlo radiation transport simulation considering the vertical profile of radioactive material measured in core samples. The conversion factors are acquired by integrating the contribution of each layer and are normalized by the concentration in the surface sediment layer. At the same time, the uncertainty of the conversion factors are formulated and estimated. The combined standard uncertainty of the radioactive cesium concentration by the towed gamma-ray detector is around 25 percent. The values of uncertainty, often referred to as relative root mean squat errors in other works, between sediment core sampling measurements and towed detector measurements were 16 percent in the investigation made near the Abukuma River mouth and 5.2 percent in Sendai Bay, respectively. Most of the uncertainty is due to interpolation of the conversion factors between core samples and uncertainty of the detector's burial depth. The results of the towed measurements agree well with laboratory analysed sediment samples. Also, the concentrations of radioactive cesium at the intersection of each survey line are consistent. The consistency with sampling results and between different lines' transects demonstrate the availability and reproducibility of towed gamma-ray detector system.

  1. On the predictivity of pore-scale simulations: estimating uncertainties with multilevel Monte Carlo

    KAUST Repository

    Icardi, Matteo; Boccardo, Gianluca; Tempone, Raul

    2016-01-01

    heterogeneity, computational and imaging limitations, model inadequacy and not perfectly known physical parameters. The typical objective of pore-scale studies is the estimation of macroscopic effective parameters such as permeability, effective diffusivity

  2. Uncertainty propagation applied to multi-scale thermal-hydraulics coupled codes. A step towards validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Geffray, Clotaire Clement

    2017-03-20

    The work presented here constitutes an important step towards the validation of the use of coupled system thermal-hydraulics and computational fluid dynamics codes for the simulation of complex flows in liquid metal cooled pool-type facilities. First, a set of methods suited for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis and validation activities with regards to the specific constraints of the work with coupled and expensive-to-run codes is proposed. Then, these methods are applied to the ATHLET - ANSYS CFX model of the TALL-3D facility. Several transients performed at this latter facility are investigated. The results are presented, discussed and compared to the experimental data. Finally, assessments of the validity of the selected methods and of the quality of the model are offered.

  3. Stochastic multi-scale analysis of homogenised properties considering uncertainties in cellular solid microstructures using a first-order perturbation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khairul Salleh Basaruddin

    Full Text Available Randomness in the microstructure due to variations in microscopic properties and geometrical information is used to predict the stochastically homogenised properties of cellular media. Two stochastic problems at the micro-scale level that commonly occur due to fabrication inaccuracies, degradation mechanisms or natural heterogeneity were analysed using a stochastic homogenisation method based on a first-order perturbation. First, the influence of Young's modulus variation in an adhesive on the macroscopic properties of an aluminium-adhesive honeycomb structure was investigated. The fluctuations in the microscopic properties were then combined by varying the microstructure periodicity in a corrugated-core sandwich plate to obtain the variation of the homogenised property. The numerical results show that the uncertainties in the microstructure affect the dispersion of the homogenised property. These results indicate the importance of the presented stochastic multi-scale analysis for the design and fabrication of cellular solids when considering microscopic random variation.

  4. Understanding uncertainties in non-linear population trajectories: a Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical approach to large-scale surveys of coral cover.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julie Vercelloni

    Full Text Available Recently, attempts to improve decision making in species management have focussed on uncertainties associated with modelling temporal fluctuations in populations. Reducing model uncertainty is challenging; while larger samples improve estimation of species trajectories and reduce statistical errors, they typically amplify variability in observed trajectories. In particular, traditional modelling approaches aimed at estimating population trajectories usually do not account well for nonlinearities and uncertainties associated with multi-scale observations characteristic of large spatio-temporal surveys. We present a Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical model for simultaneously quantifying uncertainties associated with model structure and parameters, and scale-specific variability over time. We estimate uncertainty across a four-tiered spatial hierarchy of coral cover from the Great Barrier Reef. Coral variability is well described; however, our results show that, in the absence of additional model specifications, conclusions regarding coral trajectories become highly uncertain when considering multiple reefs, suggesting that management should focus more at the scale of individual reefs. The approach presented facilitates the description and estimation of population trajectories and associated uncertainties when variability cannot be attributed to specific causes and origins. We argue that our model can unlock value contained in large-scale datasets, provide guidance for understanding sources of uncertainty, and support better informed decision making.

  5. Uncertainty in projected climate change arising from uncertain fossil-fuel emission factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quilcaille, Y.; Gasser, T.; Ciais, P.; Lecocq, F.; Janssens-Maenhout, G.; Mohr, S.

    2018-04-01

    Emission inventories are widely used by the climate community, but their uncertainties are rarely accounted for. In this study, we evaluate the uncertainty in projected climate change induced by uncertainties in fossil-fuel emissions, accounting for non-CO2 species co-emitted with the combustion of fossil-fuels and their use in industrial processes. Using consistent historical reconstructions and three contrasted future projections of fossil-fuel extraction from Mohr et al we calculate CO2 emissions and their uncertainties stemming from estimates of fuel carbon content, net calorific value and oxidation fraction. Our historical reconstructions of fossil-fuel CO2 emissions are consistent with other inventories in terms of average and range. The uncertainties sum up to a ±15% relative uncertainty in cumulative CO2 emissions by 2300. Uncertainties in the emissions of non-CO2 species associated with the use of fossil fuels are estimated using co-emission ratios varying with time. Using these inputs, we use the compact Earth system model OSCAR v2.2 and a Monte Carlo setup, in order to attribute the uncertainty in projected global surface temperature change (ΔT) to three sources of uncertainty, namely on the Earth system’s response, on fossil-fuel CO2 emission and on non-CO2 co-emissions. Under the three future fuel extraction scenarios, we simulate the median ΔT to be 1.9, 2.7 or 4.0 °C in 2300, with an associated 90% confidence interval of about 65%, 52% and 42%. We show that virtually all of the total uncertainty is attributable to the uncertainty in the future Earth system’s response to the anthropogenic perturbation. We conclude that the uncertainty in emission estimates can be neglected for global temperature projections in the face of the large uncertainty in the Earth system response to the forcing of emissions. We show that this result does not hold for all variables of the climate system, such as the atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 and the

  6. A continental-scale hydrology and water quality model for Europe: Calibration and uncertainty of a high-resolution large-scale SWAT model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbaspour, K. C.; Rouholahnejad, E.; Vaghefi, S.; Srinivasan, R.; Yang, H.; Kløve, B.

    2015-05-01

    A combination of driving forces are increasing pressure on local, national, and regional water supplies needed for irrigation, energy production, industrial uses, domestic purposes, and the environment. In many parts of Europe groundwater quantity, and in particular quality, have come under sever degradation and water levels have decreased resulting in negative environmental impacts. Rapid improvements in the economy of the eastern European block of countries and uncertainties with regard to freshwater availability create challenges for water managers. At the same time, climate change adds a new level of uncertainty with regard to freshwater supplies. In this research we build and calibrate an integrated hydrological model of Europe using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) program. Different components of water resources are simulated and crop yield and water quality are considered at the Hydrological Response Unit (HRU) level. The water resources are quantified at subbasin level with monthly time intervals. Leaching of nitrate into groundwater is also simulated at a finer spatial level (HRU). The use of large-scale, high-resolution water resources models enables consistent and comprehensive examination of integrated system behavior through physically-based, data-driven simulation. In this article we discuss issues with data availability, calibration of large-scale distributed models, and outline procedures for model calibration and uncertainty analysis. The calibrated model and results provide information support to the European Water Framework Directive and lay the basis for further assessment of the impact of climate change on water availability and quality. The approach and methods developed are general and can be applied to any large region around the world.

  7. Modeling a production scale milk drying process: parameter estimation, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ferrari, A.; Gutierrez, S.; Sin, Gürkan

    2016-01-01

    A steady state model for a production scale milk drying process was built to help process understanding and optimization studies. It involves a spray chamber and also internal/external fluid beds. The model was subjected to a comprehensive statistical analysis for quality assurance using...

  8. Large scale applicability of a Fully Adaptive Non-Intrusive Spectral Projection technique: Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of a transient

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perkó, Zoltán; Lathouwers, Danny; Kloosterman, Jan Leen; Hagen, Tim van der

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Grid and basis adaptive Polynomial Chaos techniques are presented for S and U analysis. • Dimensionality reduction and incremental polynomial order reduce computational costs. • An unprotected loss of flow transient is investigated in a Gas Cooled Fast Reactor. • S and U analysis is performed with MC and adaptive PC methods, for 42 input parameters. • PC accurately estimates means, variances, PDFs, sensitivities and uncertainties. - Abstract: Since the early years of reactor physics the most prominent sensitivity and uncertainty (S and U) analysis methods in the nuclear community have been adjoint based techniques. While these are very effective for pure neutronics problems due to the linearity of the transport equation, they become complicated when coupled non-linear systems are involved. With the continuous increase in computational power such complicated multi-physics problems are becoming progressively tractable, hence affordable and easily applicable S and U analysis tools also have to be developed in parallel. For reactor physics problems for which adjoint methods are prohibitive Polynomial Chaos (PC) techniques offer an attractive alternative to traditional random sampling based approaches. At TU Delft such PC methods have been studied for a number of years and this paper presents a large scale application of our Fully Adaptive Non-Intrusive Spectral Projection (FANISP) algorithm for performing the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of a Gas Cooled Fast Reactor (GFR) Unprotected Loss Of Flow (ULOF) transient. The transient was simulated using the Cathare 2 code system and a fully detailed model of the GFR2400 reactor design that was investigated in the European FP7 GoFastR project. Several sources of uncertainty were taken into account amounting to an unusually high number of stochastic input parameters (42) and numerous output quantities were investigated. The results show consistently good performance of the applied adaptive PC

  9. Development of radionuclide inventory estimation method using scaling factor for the Korean NPPs: scope and status

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, Ki Ha; Lee, Sang Chul; Kang, Sang Hee; Lee, Kun Jai; Jeong, Chan Woo; Ahn, Sang Myeon; Kim, Tae Wook; Kim, Kyoung Doek; Herr, Y. H.

    2003-01-01

    Regulations and guidelines for radionuclide waste disposal require detailed information about the characteristics of radioactive waste drums prior to the transport to the disposal sites. Therefore, it is important to know the accurate radionuclide inventory of radioactive waste. However, estimation of radionuclide concentrations on drummed radioactive waste is difficult and unreliable. In order to overcome these difficulties, scaling factors have been used to assess the activities of radionuclides which could not be directly analyzed. A radionuclides assay system has been operated at Korean nuclear power plant (KORI site) since 1996 and consolidated scaling factor concept has played a dominant role in determination of radionuclides concentrations. For corrosion product radionuclides, generic scaling factors were used due to the similar trend and better-characterized properties of Korean analyzed data compared to the worldwide database. It is not easy to use the generic scaling factors for fission product and TRU radionuclides. Thus simple model reflecting the history of the operation of power plant and nuclear fuel condition is applied. However, some problems are still remained. For examples, disparity between the actual and ideal correlation pairs, inaccuracy of analyzed sample values, uncertainty in representative of derived scaling factor values and so on. As a result, the correlation ratios are somewhat dispersive. So it is planned to establish an assay system using more improved scaling factors. In this study, the scope of research is expanded and planned such as following. 1) Considering more assay target nuclides, 2) Considering more target NPPs, 3) More reliable sampling and measurement techniques, 4) Improvement of accuracy and representativeness of derived scaling factor values and 5) Conformation of correlation pairs based on Korean analyzed data. As this study progresses, it is possible to get more accurate and reliable prediction for the information of

  10. Assessing risks for integrated water resource management: coping with uncertainty and the human factor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. J. Polo

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment for water resource planning must deal with the uncertainty associated with excess/scarcity situations and their costs. The projected actions for increasing water security usually involve an indirect "call-effect": the territory occupation/water use is increased following the achieved protection. In this work, flood and water demand in a mountainous semi-arid watershed in southern Spain are assessed by means of the stochastic simulation of extremes, when this human factor is/is not considered. The results show how not including this call-effect induced an underestimation of flood risk after protecting the floodplain of between 35 and 78 % in a 35-year planning horizon. Similarly, the pursued water availability of a new reservoir resulted in a 10-year scarcity risk increase up to 38 % when the trend of expanding the irrigated area was included in the simulations. These results highlight the need for including this interaction in the decision-making assessment.

  11. Quantifying uncertainties in radar forward models through a comparison between CloudSat and SPartICus reflectivity factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mascio, Jeana; Mace, Gerald G.

    2017-02-01

    Interpretations of remote sensing measurements collected in sample volumes containing ice-phase hydrometeors are very sensitive to assumptions regarding the distributions of mass with ice crystal dimension, otherwise known as mass-dimensional or m-D relationships. How these microphysical characteristics vary in nature is highly uncertain, resulting in significant uncertainty in algorithms that attempt to derive bulk microphysical properties from remote sensing measurements. This uncertainty extends to radar reflectivity factors forward calculated from model output because the statistics of the actual m-D in nature is not known. To investigate the variability in m-D relationships in cirrus clouds, reflectivity factors measured by CloudSat are combined with particle size distributions (PSDs) collected by coincident in situ aircraft by using an optimal estimation-based (OE) retrieval of the m-D power law. The PSDs were collected by 12 flights of the Stratton Park Engineering Company Learjet during the Small Particles in Cirrus campaign. We find that no specific habit emerges as preferred, and instead, we find that the microphysical characteristics of ice crystal populations tend to be distributed over a continuum-defying simple categorization. With the uncertainties derived from the OE algorithm, the uncertainties in forward-modeled backscatter cross section and, in turn, radar reflectivity is calculated by using a bootstrapping technique, allowing us to infer the uncertainties in forward-modeled radar reflectivity that would be appropriately applied to remote sensing simulator algorithms.

  12. Calculation of the Power Peaking Factor Using CFNN and Its Uncertainty Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Back, Ju Hyun; Kim, Dong Yeong; Yoo, Kwae Hwan; Choi, Geon Pil; Na, Man Gyun [Chosun University, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    The local power density (LPD) and DNBR must be calculated in order to perform the main functions of the core protection calculator (CPC) and the core operation limit supervisory system (COLSS). CPC and COLSS play a role in the protection and monitoring systems of the optimized power reactor 1000 (OPR1000) and the advanced power reactor 1400 (APR1400). LPD should be estimated accurately to prevent fuel rods from melting. LPD at the hottest part of the core is called the power peaking factor (PPF, F{sub q} ). LPD at the hottest part of the core is more important than LPD at any other position in a reactor core. DNBR and PPF are the most important factors that must be continuously monitored from a safety aspect. The aim of the study is to calculate PPF in a reactor core by a cascaded fuzzy neural networks (CFNN) model according to operating conditions. The operation condition is reactor power, core inlet temperature, pressurizer pressure, mass flowrate, axial shape index (ASI), and variety of control rod position. The proposed CFNN model that is a PPF estimation algorithm is verified by using the nuclear and thermal data acquired from numerical simulations of OPR1000. The CFNN regression models were optimized by using the data set prepared as training data and tested by using verification data. The developed CFNN models were applied to the OPR 1000. As a result, the RMS error of the estimated PPF values is below 0.05%. In addition, their uncertainty was analyzed by a bootstrap method using 100 sampled development data sets.

  13. Dither Gyro Scale Factor Calibration: GOES-16 Flight Experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reth, Alan D.; Freesland, Douglas C.; Krimchansky, Alexander

    2018-01-01

    This poster is a sequel to a paper presented at the 34th Annual AAS Guidance and Control Conference in 2011, which first introduced dither-based calibration of gyro scale factors. The dither approach uses very small excitations, avoiding the need to take instruments offline during gyro scale factor calibration. In 2017, the dither calibration technique was successfully used to estimate gyro scale factors on the GOES-16 satellite. On-orbit dither calibration results were compared to more traditional methods using large angle spacecraft slews about each gyro axis, requiring interruption of science. The results demonstrate that the dither technique can estimate gyro scale factors to better than 2000 ppm during normal science observations.

  14. Validity and factor structure of the bodybuilding dependence scale

    OpenAIRE

    Smith, D; Hale, B

    2004-01-01

    Objectives: To investigate the factor structure, validity, and reliability of the bodybuilding dependence scale and to investigate differences in bodybuilding dependence between men and women and competitive and non-competitive bodybuilders.

  15. FACTOR STRUCTURE OF THE BRIEF NEGATIVE SYMPTOM SCALE

    OpenAIRE

    Strauss, Gregory P.; Hong, L. Elliot; Gold, James M.; Buchanan, Robert W.; McMahon, Robert P.; Keller, William R.; Fischer, Bernard A.; Catalano, Lauren T.; Culbreth, Adam J.; Carpenter, William T.; Kirkpatrick, Brian

    2012-01-01

    The current study examined the factor structure of the Brief Negative Symptom Scale (BNSS), a next-generation negative symptom rating instrument developed in response to the NIMH-sponsored Consensus Development Conference on Negative Symptoms. Participants included 146 individuals with a DSM-IV diagnosis of schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder. Principal axis factoring indicated two distinct factors explaining 68.7% of the variance. Similar to previous findings, the factors reflected mot...

  16. A Factor Analytic Study of the Internet Usage Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monetti, David M.; Whatley, Mark A.; Hinkle, Kerry T.; Cunningham, Kerry T.; Breneiser, Jennifer E.; Kisling, Rhea

    2011-01-01

    This study developed an Internet Usage Scale (IUS) for use with adolescent populations. The IUS is a 26-item scale that measures participants' beliefs about how their Internet usage impacts their behavior. The sample for this study consisted of 947 middle school students. An exploratory factor analysis with varimax rotation was conducted on the…

  17. An uncertainty principle for star formation - II. A new method for characterising the cloud-scale physics of star formation and feedback across cosmic history

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kruijssen, J. M. Diederik; Schruba, Andreas; Hygate, Alexander P. S.; Hu, Chia-Yu; Haydon, Daniel T.; Longmore, Steven N.

    2018-05-01

    The cloud-scale physics of star formation and feedback represent the main uncertainty in galaxy formation studies. Progress is hampered by the limited empirical constraints outside the restricted environment of the Local Group. In particular, the poorly-quantified time evolution of the molecular cloud lifecycle, star formation, and feedback obstructs robust predictions on the scales smaller than the disc scale height that are resolved in modern galaxy formation simulations. We present a new statistical method to derive the evolutionary timeline of molecular clouds and star-forming regions. By quantifying the excess or deficit of the gas-to-stellar flux ratio around peaks of gas or star formation tracer emission, we directly measure the relative rarity of these peaks, which allows us to derive their lifetimes. We present a step-by-step, quantitative description of the method and demonstrate its practical application. The method's accuracy is tested in nearly 300 experiments using simulated galaxy maps, showing that it is capable of constraining the molecular cloud lifetime and feedback time-scale to <0.1 dex precision. Access to the evolutionary timeline provides a variety of additional physical quantities, such as the cloud-scale star formation efficiency, the feedback outflow velocity, the mass loading factor, and the feedback energy or momentum coupling efficiencies to the ambient medium. We show that the results are robust for a wide variety of gas and star formation tracers, spatial resolutions, galaxy inclinations, and galaxy sizes. Finally, we demonstrate that our method can be applied out to high redshift (z≲ 4) with a feasible time investment on current large-scale observatories. This is a major shift from previous studies that constrained the physics of star formation and feedback in the immediate vicinity of the Sun.

  18. Confirmatory Factor Analysis of the Procrastination Assessment Scale for Students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ronald D. Yockey

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The relative fit of one- and two-factor models of the Procrastination Assessment Scale for Students (PASS was investigated using confirmatory factor analysis on an ethnically diverse sample of 345 participants. The results indicated that although the two-factor model provided better fit to the data than the one-factor model, neither model provided optimal fit. However, a two-factor model which accounted for common item theme pairs used by Solomon and Rothblum in the creation of the scale provided good fit to the data. In addition, a significant difference by ethnicity was also found on the fear of failure subscale of the PASS, with Whites having significantly lower scores than Asian Americans or Latino/as. Implications of the results are discussed and recommendations made for future work with the scale.

  19. ARIANNE. Analytical uncertainties. Simulation of influential factors in the inventory of the final web cam

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morales Prieto, M.; Ortega Saiz, P.

    2011-01-01

    Analysis of analytical uncertainties of the methodology of simulation of processes for obtaining isotopic ending inventory of spent fuel, the ARIANE experiment explores the part of simulation of burning.

  20. Internal and external quasicrystal inflation center and their scaling factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masakova, Z.; Patera, J.; Pelantova, E.

    1998-01-01

    The properties of quasicrystals of the cut and project type - namely, self-similarities or so-called inflation properties - are studied. A complete description is given for centers of the scaling symmetry of a quasicrystal, and the relevant scaling factors are determined for each 'inflation center'. If the center is a quasicrystal point, it is called an 'internal inflation center'; otherwise, it is an 'external' one. It turns out that, for any quasicrystal point u, the set of appropriate scaling factors is a u-dependent one-dimensional quasicrystal. There are infinitely many scaling factors common to all internal inflation centers. The description of external inflation centers, which are plentiful in any quasicrystal, is a slight modification of a similar description for the interval ones

  1. Quantifying Uncertainties in Mass-Dimensional Relationships Through a Comparison Between CloudSat and SPartICus Reflectivity Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mascio, J.; Mace, G. G.

    2015-12-01

    CloudSat and CALIPSO, two of the satellites in the A-Train constellation, use algorithms to calculate the scattering properties of small cloud particles, such as the T-matrix method. Ice clouds (i.e. cirrus) cause problems with these cloud property retrieval algorithms because of their variability in ice mass as a function of particle size. Assumptions regarding the microphysical properties, such as mass-dimensional (m-D) relationships, are often necessary in retrieval algorithms for simplification, but these assumptions create uncertainties of their own. Therefore, ice cloud property retrieval uncertainties can be substantial and are often not well known. To investigate these uncertainties, reflectivity factors measured by CloudSat are compared to those calculated from particle size distributions (PSDs) to which different m-D relationships are applied. These PSDs are from data collected in situ during three flights of the Small Particles in Cirrus (SPartICus) campaign. We find that no specific habit emerges as preferred and instead we conclude that the microphysical characteristics of ice crystal populations tend to be distributed over a continuum and, therefore, cannot be categorized easily. To quantify the uncertainties in the mass-dimensional relationships, an optimal estimation inversion was run to retrieve the m-D relationship per SPartICus flight, as well as to calculate uncertainties of the m-D power law.

  2. Success Factors of Large Scale ERP Implementation in Thailand

    OpenAIRE

    Rotchanakitumnuai; Siriluck

    2010-01-01

    The objectives of the study are to examine the determinants of ERP implementation success factors of ERP implementation. The result indicates that large scale ERP implementation success consist of eight factors: project management competence, knowledge sharing, ERP system quality , understanding, user involvement, business process re-engineering, top management support, organization readiness.

  3. Predicted risk of cobalt deficiency in grazing sheep from a geochemical survey; communicating uncertainty with the IPCC verbal scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lark, R. M.; Ander, E. L.; Cave, M. R.; Knights, K. V.; Glennon, M. M.; Scanlon, R. P.

    2014-05-01

    Deficiency or excess of certain trace elements in the soil causes problems for agriculture, including disorders of grazing ruminants. Farmers and their advisors in Ireland use index values for the concentration of total soil cobalt and manganese to identify where grazing sheep are at risk of cobalt deficiency. We used cokriging with topsoil data from a regional geochemical survey across six counties of Ireland to form local cokriging predictions of cobalt and manganese concentrations with an attendant distribution which reflects the joint uncertainty of these predictions. From this distribution we then computed conditional probabilities for different combinations of cobalt and manganese index values, and so for the corresponding inferred risk to sheep of cobalt deficiency and the appropriateness of different management interventions. The challenge is to communicate these results effectively to an audience comprising, inter alia, farmers, agronomists and veterinarians. Numerical probabilities are not generally well-understood by non-specialists. For this reason we presented our results as maps using a verbal scale to communicate the probability that a deficiency is indicated by local soil conditions, or that a particular intervention is indicated. In the light of recent research on the effectiveness of the verbal scale used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to communicate probabilistic information we reported the geostatistical predictions as follows. First, we use the basic IPCC scale with intensifiers, but we also indicate the corresponding probabilities (as percentages) as recommended by Budescu et al. (2009). Second, we make it clear that the source of uncertainty in these predictions is the spatial variability of soil Co and Mn. The outcome under consideration is therefore that a particular soil management scenario would be indicated if the soil properties were known without error, possible uncertainty about the implications of particular soil

  4. Quantifying reactor safety margins: Application of code scaling, applicability, and uncertainty evaluation methodology to a large-break, loss-of-coolant accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boyack, B.; Duffey, R.; Wilson, G.; Griffith, P.; Lellouche, G.; Levy, S.; Rohatgi, U.; Wulff, W.; Zuber, N.

    1989-12-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has issued a revised rule for loss-of-coolant accident/emergency core cooling system (ECCS) analysis of light water reactors to allow the use of best-estimate computer codes in safety analysis as an option. A key feature of this option requires the licensee to quantify the uncertainty of the calculations and include that uncertainty when comparing the calculated results with acceptance limits provided in 10 CFR Part 50. To support the revised ECCS rule and illustrate its application, the NRC and its contractors and consultants have developed and demonstrated an uncertainty evaluation methodology called code scaling, applicability, and uncertainty (CSAU). The CSAU methodology and an example application described in this report demonstrate that uncertainties in complex phenomena can be quantified. The methodology is structured, traceable, and practical, as is needed in the regulatory arena. The methodology is systematic and comprehensive as it addresses and integrates the scenario, experiments, code, and plant to resolve questions concerned with: (a) code capability to scale-up processes from test facility to full-scale nuclear power plants; (b) code applicability to safety studies of a postulated accident scenario in a specified nuclear power plant; and (c) quantifying uncertainties of calculated results. 127 refs., 55 figs., 40 tabs

  5. Factor structure of the Body Appreciation Scale among Malaysian women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swami, Viren; Chamorro-Premuzic, Tomas

    2008-12-01

    The present study examined the factor structure of a Malay version of the Body Appreciation Scale (BAS), a recently developed scale for the assessment of positive body image that has been shown to have a unidimensional structure in Western settings. Results of exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses based on data from community sample of 591 women in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, failed to support a unidimensional structure for the Malay BAS. Results of a confirmatory factor analysis suggested two stable factors, which were labelled 'General Body Appreciation' and 'Body Image Investment'. Multi-group analysis showed that the two-factor structure was invariant for both Malaysian Malay and Chinese women, and that there were no significant ethnic differences on either factor. Results also showed that General Body Appreciation was significant negatively correlated with participants' body mass index. These results are discussed in relation to possible cross-cultural differences in positive body image.

  6. Updating Environmental Media Concentration Limits and Uncertainty factors in the ERICA Tool

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, J.E.; Hosseini, A. [Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority, P.O. Box 55, N-1332 Oesteraas (Norway); Alfonso, B.; Avila, R. [Facilia AB, S-167 51 Bromma (Sweden); Beresford, N.A. [Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, CEH-Lancaster, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg, Lancaster LA 1 4AP (United Kingdom); Copplestone, D. [Dept. Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Stirling, Stirling, FK9 4LA (United Kingdom)

    2014-07-01

    Tiered approaches have become a standard means of structuring information in the process of conducting environmental risk assessments. For cases involving the assessment of impacts on wildlife from ionising radiation, the ERICA integrated approach and its supporting software (The ERICA Tool) provides such a structure, splitting the system into two generic screening tiers and a third site-specific tier. The first Tier is very simple, based around Environmental Media Concentration Limits, EMCLs, and requires minimal input from the assessor. The second Tier, although still a screening tier, calculates dose rates and requires more detailed input from the assessor allowing for scrutiny and editing of default parameters in the process. A key element of Tier 2 involves the application of Uncertainty Factors, UFs. Such factors reflect our knowledge concerning probability distribution functions and provide a way of incorporating conservatism into the assessment by considering high percentile values in underlying parameters. Following its launch in 2007, there have been significant developments regarding certain components of the ERICA integrated approach. Most notably, an extended international collation of concentration ratio data has precipitated the need to update parameter values in the Tools databases. In addition, more considered guidance has been developed with regards to filling knowledge gaps in the absence of transfer data. Furthermore, the efficacy of the methods used in assigning probability distribution functions has been questioned leading to an acknowledgement from the developers that the methods were not described in enough detail nor were the justifications for applying the selected approach provided in a convincing way. This has implications for the EMCL values which are derived probabilistically using parameters including concentration ratios. Furthermore, there are implications for UF derivation that relies upon a robust consideration of underlying

  7. Climate change - An uncertainty factor in risk analysis of contaminated land

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Augustsson, Anna; Filipsson, Monika; Oberg, Tomas; Bergbaeck, Bo

    2011-01-01

    Metals frequently occur at contaminated sites, where their potential toxicity and persistence require risk assessments that consider possible long-term changes. Changes in climate are likely to affect the speciation, mobility, and risks associated with metals. This paper provides an example of how the climate effect can be inserted in a commonly used exposure model, and how the exposure then changes compared to present conditions. The comparison was made for cadmium (Cd) exposure to 4-year-old children at a highly contaminated iron and steel works site in southeastern Sweden. Both deterministic and probabilistic approaches (through probability bounds analysis, PBA) were used in the exposure assessment. Potential climate-sensitive variables were determined by a literature review. Although only six of the total 39 model variables were assumed to be sensitive to a change in climate (groundwater infiltration, hydraulic conductivity, soil moisture, soil:water distribution, and two bioconcentration factors), the total exposure was clearly affected. For example, by altering the climate-sensitive variables in the order of 15% to 20%, the deterministic estimate of exposure increased by 27%. Similarly, the PBA estimate of the reasonable maximum exposure (RME, defined as the upper bound of the 95th percentile) increased by almost 20%. This means that sites where the exposure in present conditions is determined to be slightly below guideline values may in the future exceed these guidelines, and risk management decisions could thus be affected. The PBA, however, showed that there is also a possibility of lower exposure levels, which means that the changes assumed for the climate-sensitive variables increase the total uncertainty in the probabilistic calculations. This highlights the importance of considering climate as a factor in the characterization of input data to exposure assessments at contaminated sites. The variable with the strongest influence on the result was the

  8. Complexities and uncertainties in transitioning small-scale coral reef fisheries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierre eLeenhardt

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Coral reef fisheries support the development of local and national economies and are the basis of important cultural practices and worldviews. Transitioning economies, human development and environmental stress can harm this livelihood. Here we focus on a transitioning social-ecological system as case study (Moorea, French Polynesia. We review fishing practices and three decades of effort and landing estimates with the broader goal of informing management. Fishery activities in Moorea are quite challenging to quantify because of the diversity of gears used, the lack of centralized access points or markets, the high participation rates of the population in the fishery, and the overlapping cultural and economic motivations to catch fish. Compounding this challenging diversity, we lack a basic understanding of the complex interplay between the cultural, subsistence, and commercial use of Moorea's reefs. In Moorea, we found an order of magnitude gap between estimates of fishery yield produced by catch monitoring methods (~2 t km-2 year-1 and estimates produced using consumption or participatory socioeconomic consumer surveys (~24 t km-2 year-1. Several lines of evidence suggest reef resources may be overexploited and stakeholders have a diversity of opinions as to whether trends in the stocks are a cause for concern. The reefs, however, remain ecologically resilient. The relative health of the reef is striking given the socio-economic context. Moorea has a relatively high population density, a modern economic system linked into global flows of trade and travel, and the fishery has little remaining traditional or customary management. Other islands in the Pacific that continue to develop economically may have small-scale fisheries that increasingly resemble Moorea. Therefore, understanding Moorea's reef fisheries may provide insight into their future.

  9. Factor structure of the Brief Negative Symptom Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strauss, Gregory P; Hong, L Elliot; Gold, James M; Buchanan, Robert W; McMahon, Robert P; Keller, William R; Fischer, Bernard A; Catalano, Lauren T; Culbreth, Adam J; Carpenter, William T; Kirkpatrick, Brian

    2012-12-01

    The current study examined the factor structure of the Brief Negative Symptom Scale (BNSS), a next-generation negative symptom rating instrument developed in response to the NIMH-sponsored Consensus Development Conference on Negative Symptoms. Participants included 146 individuals with a DSM-IV diagnosis of schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder. Principal axis factoring indicated two distinct factors explaining 68.7% of the variance. Similar to previous findings, the factors reflected motivation and pleasure and emotional expressivity. These findings provide further support for the construct validity of the BNSS, and for the existence of these two negative symptom factors. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. The factor structure of the Social Interaction Anxiety Scale and the Social Phobia Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heidenreich, Thomas; Schermelleh-Engel, Karin; Schramm, Elisabeth; Hofmann, Stefan G; Stangier, Ulrich

    2011-05-01

    The Social Interaction Anxiety Scale (SIAS) and the Social Phobia Scale (SPS) are two compendium measures that have become some of the most popular self-report scales of social anxiety. Despite their popularity, it remains unclear whether it is necessary to maintain two separate scales of social anxiety. The primary objective of the present study was to examine the factor analytic structure of both measures to determine the factorial validity of each scale. For this purpose, we administered both scales to 577 patients at the beginning of outpatient treatment. Analyzing both scales simultaneously, a CFA with two correlated factors showed a better fit to the data than a single factor model. An additional EFA with an oblique rotation on all 40 items using the WLSMV estimator further supported the two factor solution. These results suggest that the SIAS and SPS measure similar, but not identical facets of social anxiety. Thus, our findings provide support to retain the SIAS and SPS as two separate scales. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Factoring uncertainty into restoration modeling of in-situ leach uranium mines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Raymond H.; Friedel, Michael J.

    2009-01-01

    Postmining restoration is one of the greatest concerns for uranium in-situ leach (ISL) mining operations. The ISL-affected aquifer needs to be returned to conditions specified in the mining permit (either premining or other specified conditions). When uranium ISL operations are completed, postmining restoration is usually achieved by injecting reducing agents into the mined zone. The objective of this process is to restore the aquifer to premining conditions by reducing the solubility of uranium and other metals in the ground water. Reactive transport modeling is a potentially useful method for simulating the effectiveness of proposed restoration techniques. While reactive transport models can be useful, they are a simplification of reality that introduces uncertainty through the model conceptualization, parameterization, and calibration processes. For this reason, quantifying the uncertainty in simulated temporal and spatial hydrogeochemistry is important for postremedial risk evaluation of metal concentrations and mobility. Quantifying the range of uncertainty in key predictions (such as uranium concentrations at a specific location) can be achieved using forward Monte Carlo or other inverse modeling techniques (trial-and-error parameter sensitivity, calibration constrained Monte Carlo). These techniques provide simulated values of metal concentrations at specified locations that can be presented as nonlinear uncertainty limits or probability density functions. Decisionmakers can use these results to better evaluate environmental risk as future metal concentrations with a limited range of possibilities, based on a scientific evaluation of uncertainty.

  12. Scale factor measure method without turntable for angular rate gyroscope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Fangyi; Han, Xuefei; Yao, Yanqing; Xiong, Yuting; Huang, Yuqiong; Wang, Hua

    2018-03-01

    In this paper, a scale factor test method without turntable is originally designed for the angular rate gyroscope. A test system which consists of test device, data acquisition circuit and data processing software based on Labview platform is designed. Taking advantage of gyroscope's sensitivity of angular rate, a gyroscope with known scale factor, serves as a standard gyroscope. The standard gyroscope is installed on the test device together with a measured gyroscope. By shaking the test device around its edge which is parallel to the input axis of gyroscope, the scale factor of the measured gyroscope can be obtained in real time by the data processing software. This test method is fast. It helps test system miniaturized, easy to carry or move. Measure quarts MEMS gyroscope's scale factor multi-times by this method, the difference is less than 0.2%. Compare with testing by turntable, the scale factor difference is less than 1%. The accuracy and repeatability of the test system seems good.

  13. Data replicating the factor structure and reliability of commonly used measures of resilience: The Connor–Davidson Resilience Scale, Resilience Scale, and Scale of Protective Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.N. Madewell

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The data presented in this article are related to the article entitled “Assessing Resilience in Emerging Adulthood: The Resilience Scale (RS, Connor Davidson Resilience Scale (CD-RISC, and Scale of Protective Factors (SPF” (Madewell and Ponce-Garcia, 2016 [1]. The data were collected from a sample of 451 college students from three universities located in the Southwestern region of the United States: 374 from a large public university and 67 from two smaller regional universities. The data from the three universities did not significantly differ in terms of demographics. The data represent participant responses on six measurements to include the Resilience Scale-25 (RS-25, Resilience Scale-14 (RS-14, Connor Davidson Resilience Scale-25 (CD-RISC-25, Connor Davidson Resilience Scale-10 (CD-RISC-10, Scale of Protective Factors-24 (SPF-24, and the Life Stressor Checklist Revised (LSC-R. Keywords: Scale of Protective Factors, Resilience Scale, Connor–Davidson Resilience Scale, Emerging adulthood, Confirmatory factor analysis

  14. INVESTIGATING THE FACTOR STRUCTURE OF THE BLOG ATTITUDE SCALE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zahra SHAHSAVAR

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Due to the wide application of advanced technology in education, many attitude scales have been developed to evaluate learners’ attitudes toward educational tools. However, with the rapid development of emerging technologies, using blogs as one of the Web 2.0 tools is still in its infancy and few blog attitude scales have been developed yet. In view of this need, a lot of researchers like to design a new scale based on their conceptual and theoretical framework of their own study rather than using available scales. The present study reports the design and development of a blog attitude scale (BAS. The researchers developed a pool of items to capture the complexity of the blog attitude trait, selected 29 items in the content analysis, and assigned the scale comprising 29 items to 216 undergraduate students to explore the underlying structure of the BAS. In exploratory factor analysis, three factors were discovered: blog anxiety, blog desirability, and blog self-efficacy; 14 items were excluded. The extracted items were subjected to a confirmatory factor analysis which lent further support to the BAS underpinning structure.

  15. Scaling of nuclear modification factors for hadrons and light nuclei

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, C.S. [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai Institute of Applied Physics, Shanghai (China); University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China); Ma, Y.G. [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai Institute of Applied Physics, Shanghai (China); ShanghaiTech University, Shanghai (China); Zhang, S. [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai Institute of Applied Physics, Shanghai (China)

    2016-12-15

    The number of constituent quarks (NCQ) scaling for hadrons and the number of constituent nucleons (NCN) scaling for light nuclei are proposed for nuclear modification factors (R{sub cp}) of hadrons and light nuclei, respectively, according to the experimental investigations in relativistic heavy-ion collisions. Based on the coalescence mechanism the scalings are performed for pions and protons at the quark level, and for light nuclei d(anti d) and {sup 3}He at the nucleonic level, respectively, formed in Au+Au and Pb+Pb collisions, and a nice scaling behaviour emerges. The NCQ or NCN scaling law of R{sub cp} can be, respectively, taken as a probe for the quark or nucleon coalescence mechanism for the formation of hadron or light nuclei in relativistic heavy-ion collisions. (orig.)

  16. Using the Karolinska Scales of Personality on male juvenile delinquents: relationships between scales and factor structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dåderman, Anna M; Hellström, Ake; Wennberg, Peter; Törestad, Bertil

    2005-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to investigate relationships between scales from the Karolinska Scales of Personality (KSP) and the factor structure of the KSP in a sample of male juvenile delinquents. The KSP was administered to a group of male juvenile delinquents (n=55, mean age 17 years; standard deviation=1.2) from four Swedish national correctional institutions for serious offenders. As expected, the KSP showed appropriate correlations between the scales. Factor analysis (maximum likelihood) arrived at a four-factor solution in this sample, which is in line with previous research performed in a non-clinical sample of Swedish males. More research is needed in a somewhat larger sample of juvenile delinquents in order to confirm the present results regarding the factor solution.

  17. Renormalization and factorization scale analysis of b-barb production in antiproton-proton collisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chyla, Jiri

    2003-01-01

    There is a sizable and systematic discrepancy between experimental data on the b-barb production in , p-barp, γp and γγ collisions and existing theoretical calculations within perturbative QCD. Before interpreting this discrepancy as a signal of new physics, it is important to understand quantitatively the ambiguities of conventional calculations. In this paper the uncertainty coming from renormalization and factorization scale dependence of finite order perturbation calculations of the total cross section of b-barb production in p-barp collisions is discussed in detail. It is shown that the mentioned discrepancy is reduced significantly if these scales are fixed via the Principle of Minimal Sensitivity. (author)

  18. Strategic Factor Markets Scale Free Resources and Economic Performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Geisler Asmussen, Christian

    2015-01-01

    This paper analyzes how scale free resources, which can be acquired by multiple firms simultaneously and deployed against one another in product market competition, will be priced in strategic factor markets, and what the consequences are for the acquiring firms' performance. Based on a game-theo...

  19. Rosenberg's Self-Esteem Scale: Two Factors or Method Effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomas, Jose M.; Oliver, Amparo

    1999-01-01

    Results of a study with 640 Spanish high school students suggest the existence of a global self-esteem factor underlying responses to Rosenberg's (M. Rosenberg, 1965) Self-Esteem Scale, although the inclusion of method effects is needed to achieve a good model fit. Method effects are associated with item wording. (SLD)

  20. Work related injuries and associated factors among small scale ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objective: This study aims to assess the magnitude of work related injury and associated factors among small scale industrial workers in Mizan-Aman town, Bench Maji Zone, Southwest Ethiopia. Method: A cross-sectional study design was conducted from February to May, 2016. Data was collected using a structured face to ...

  1. Orographic precipitation at global and regional scales: Observational uncertainty and evaluation of 25-km global model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiemann, Reinhard; Roberts, Charles J.; Bush, Stephanie; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Strachan, Jane; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Mizielinski, Matthew S.; Roberts, Malcolm J.

    2015-04-01

    Precipitation over land exhibits a high degree of variability due to the complex interaction of the precipitation generating atmospheric processes with coastlines, the heterogeneous land surface, and orography. Global general circulation models (GCMs) have traditionally had very limited ability to capture this variability on the mesoscale (here ~50-500 km) due to their low resolution. This has changed with recent investments in resolution and ensembles of multidecadal climate simulations of atmospheric GCMs (AGCMs) with ~25 km grid spacing are becoming increasingly available. Here, we evaluate the mesoscale precipitation distribution in one such set of simulations obtained in the UPSCALE (UK on PrACE - weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk) modelling campaign with the HadGEM-GA3 AGCM. Increased model resolution also poses new challenges to the observational datasets used to evaluate models. Global gridded data products such as those provided by the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) are invaluable for assessing large-scale features of the precipitation distribution but may not sufficiently resolve mesoscale structures. In the absence of independent estimates, the intercomparison of different observational datasets may be the only way to get some insight into the uncertainties associated with these observations. Here, we focus on mid-latitude continental regions where observations based on higher-density gauge networks are available in addition to the global data sets: Europe/the Alps, South and East Asia, and the continental US. The ability of GCMs to represent mesoscale variability is of interest in its own right, as climate information on this scale is required by impact studies. An additional motivation for the research proposed here arises from continuing efforts to quantify the components of the global radiation budget and water cycle. Recent estimates based on radiation measurements suggest that the global mean

  2. Feelings about culture scales: development, factor structure, reliability, and validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maffini, Cara S; Wong, Y Joel

    2015-04-01

    Although measures of cultural identity, values, and behavior exist in the multicultural psychological literature, there is currently no measure that explicitly assesses ethnic minority individuals' positive and negative affect toward culture. Therefore, we developed 2 new measures called the Feelings About Culture Scale--Ethnic Culture and Feelings About Culture Scale--Mainstream American Culture and tested their psychometric properties. In 6 studies, we piloted the measures, conducted factor analyses to clarify their factor structure, and examined reliability and validity. The factor structure revealed 2 dimensions reflecting positive and negative affect for each measure. Results provided evidence for convergent, discriminant, criterion-related, and incremental validity as well as the reliability of the scales. The Feelings About Culture Scales are the first known measures to examine both positive and negative affect toward an individual's ethnic culture and mainstream American culture. The focus on affect captures dimensions of psychological experiences that differ from cognitive and behavioral constructs often used to measure cultural orientation. These measures can serve as a valuable contribution to both research and counseling by providing insight into the nuanced affective experiences ethnic minority individuals have toward culture. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  3. Optimization of Korean energy planning for sustainability considering uncertainties in learning rates and external factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Seunghyok; Koo, Jamin; Lee, Chang Jun; Yoon, En Sup

    2012-01-01

    During the last few decades, energy planning has focused on meeting domestic demand at lower total costs. However, global warming and the shared recognition of it have transformed the problem of energy planning into a more complex task with a greater number of issues to be considered. Since the key issue is to reduce greenhouse effects, governments around the world have begun to make investments in renewable energy systems (e.g., hydro, wind, solar, and/or biomass power). The relatively high costs of renewable energy systems and the uncertain outlook of their rate of diffusion in the market make it difficult to heavily rely on them. The uncertain variations in production cost over time are especially challenging. To handle uncertainties, the concept of the learning rate was adopted in this study so as to compute the costs of energy systems in the future and Monte Carlo simulation was performed. The aim of this study was to optimize plans of conventional and prospective renewable energy systems with respect to production cost. The production cost included capital, fixed, variable, and external costs. For the case study, the energy situation in South Korea was used. The results of the case study where the proposed methodology was applied could provide useful insights economically and strategies of sustainable energy management for ambiguous environments. -- Highlights: ► We propose energy planning method for sustainability. ► We consider uncertainties such as learning rate, fuel prices, and CO 2 prices. ► We consider the possibility of CO 2 trading. ► The proposed method is applied to South Korea case. ► The added capacities of energy systems depend on uncertainties.

  4. N2O emission hotspots at different spatial scales and governing factors for small scale hotspots

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heuvel, R.N. van den; Hefting, M.M.; Tan, N.C.G.; Jetten, M.S.M.; Verhoeven, J.T.A.

    2009-01-01

    Chronically nitrate-loaded riparian buffer zones show high N 2 O emissions. Often, a large part of the N 2 O is emitted from small surface areas, resulting in high spatial variability in these buffer zones. These small surface areas with high N 2 O emissions (hotspots) need to be investigated to generate knowledge on the factors governing N 2 O emissions. In this study the N 2 O emission variability was investigated at different spatial scales. Therefore N 2 O emissions from three 32 m 2 grids were determined in summer and winter. Spatial variation and total emission were determined on three different scales (0.3 m 2 , 0.018 m 2 and 0.0013 m 2 ) at plots with different levels of N 2 O emissions. Spatial variation was high at all scales determined and highest at the smallest scale. To test possible factors inducing small scale hotspots, soil samples were collected for slurry incubation to determine responses to increased electron donor/acceptor availability. Acetate addition did increase N 2 O production, but nitrate addition failed to increase total denitrification or net N 2 O production. N 2 O production was similar in all soil slurries, independent of their origin from high or low emission soils, indicating that environmental conditions (including physical factors like gas diffusion) rather than microbial community composition governed N 2 O emission rates

  5. Uncertainties of the B → D transition form factor from the D-meson leading-twist distribution amplitude

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Yi; Zhong, Tao; Li, Ke [Henan Normal University, College of Physics and Materials Science, Xinxiang (China); Wu, Xing-Gang [Chongqing University, Department of Physics, Chongqing (China); Fu, Hai-Bing [Guizhou Minzu University, School of Science, Guiyang (China); Huang, Tao [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institute of High Energy Physics and Theoretical Physics Center for Science Facilities, Beijing (China)

    2018-01-15

    The B → D transition form factor (TFF) f{sub +}{sup B→D}(q{sup 2}) is determined mainly by the D-meson leading-twist distribution amplitude (DA), φ{sub 2;D}, if the proper chiral current correlation function is adopted within the light-cone QCD sum rules. It is therefore significant to make a comprehensive study of DA φ{sub 2;D} and its impact on f{sub +}{sup B→D}(q{sup 2}). In this paper, we calculate the moments of φ{sub 2;D} with the QCD sum rules under the framework of the background field theory. New sum rules for the leading-twist DA moments left angle ξ{sup n} right angle {sub D} up to fourth order and up to dimension-six condensates are presented. At the scale μ = 2 GeV, the values of the first four moments are: left angle ξ{sup 1} right angle {sub D} = -0.418{sup +0.021}{sub -0.022}, left angle ξ{sup 2} right angle {sub D} = 0.289{sup +0.023}{sub -0.022}, left angle ξ{sup 3} right angle {sub D} = -0.178 ± 0.010 and left angle ξ{sup 4} right angle {sub D} = 0.142{sup +0.013}{sub -0.012}. Basing on the values of left angle ξ{sup n} right angle {sub D} (n = 1, 2, 3, 4), a better model of φ{sub 2;D} is constructed. Applying this model for the TFF f{sub +}{sup B→D}(q{sup 2}) under the light cone sum rules, we obtain f{sub +}{sup B→D}(0) = 0.673{sup +0.038}{sub -0.041} and f{sub +}{sup B→D}(q{sup 2}{sub max}) = 1.117{sup +0.051}{sub -0.054}. The uncertainty of f{sub +}{sup B→D}(q{sup 2}) from φ{sub 2;D} is estimated and we find its impact should be taken into account, especially in low and central energy region. The branching ratio B(B → Dl anti ν{sub l}) is calculated, which is consistent with experimental data. (orig.)

  6. Local Management Practices for Dealing with Change and Uncertainty: A Cross-scale Comparison of Cases in Sweden and Tanzania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Tengö

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available We investigated and compared management practices for dealing with uncertainty in agroecosystem dynamics in two cases of smallholder farming in different parts of the world: northeast Tanzania and east-central Sweden. Qualitative research methods were applied to map farmers' practices related to agroecosystem management. The practices are clustered according to a framework of ecosystem services relevant for agricultural production and discussed using a theoretical model of ecosystem dynamics. Almost half of the identified practices were found to be similar in both cases, with similar approaches for adjusting to and dealing with local variability and disturbance. Practices that embraced the ecological roles of wild as well as domesticated flora and fauna and the use of qualitative biological indicators are identified as tools that built insurance capital for change and enhanced the capacity to respond to changing agroecosystem dynamics. Diversification in time and space, as well as more specific practices for mitigating pest outbreaks and temporary droughts, can limit the effects of disturbance. In both Sweden and Tanzania, we identified social mechanisms for the protection of species that served important functions in the agroecosystem. We also found examples of how old practices served as a source of adaptations for dealing with new conditions and that new knowledge was adjusted to local conditions. The study shows that comparing management practices across scales and in different cultural settings can reveal insights into the capacity of farmers to adjust, respond to, and shape ecosystem dynamics. We emphasize the importance of continuous learning for developing the sustainable management of complex agroecosystems and securing agricultural production for the future.

  7. Factor structure of the Japanese Interpersonal Competence Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsudaira, Tomomi; Fukuhara, Taihei; Kitamura, Toshinori

    2008-04-01

    Assessing social competence is important for clinical and preventive interventions of depression. The aim of the present paper was to examine the factor structure of the Japanese Interpersonal Competence Scale (JICS). Exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis was performed on the survey responses of 730 participants. Simultaneous multigroup analyses were conducted to confirm factor stability across psychological health status and sex differences. Two factors, which represent Perceptive Ability and Self-Restraint, were confirmed to show a moderate correlation. Perceptive Ability involves a more cognitive aspect of social competence, while Self-Restraint involves a more behavioral aspect, both of which are considered to reflect the emotion-based relating style specific to the Japanese people: indulgent dependence (amae) and harmony (wa). In addition, Self-Restraint may be linked to social functioning. Both constructs may confound a respondent's perceived confidence. Despite its shortcomings, the JICS is a unique measure of social competence in the Japanese cultural context.

  8. Validity and factor structure of the bodybuilding dependence scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, D; Hale, B

    2004-04-01

    To investigate the factor structure, validity, and reliability of the bodybuilding dependence scale and to investigate differences in bodybuilding dependence between men and women and competitive and non-competitive bodybuilders. Seventy two male competitive bodybuilders, 63 female competitive bodybuilders, 87 male non-competitive bodybuilders, and 63 non-competitive female bodybuilders completed the bodybuilding dependence scale (BDS), the exercise dependence questionnaire (EDQ), and the muscle dysmorphia inventory (MDI). Confirmatory factor analysis of the BDS supported a three factor model of bodybuilding dependence, consisting of social dependence, training dependence, and mastery dependence (Q = 3.16, CFI = 0.98, SRMR = 0.04). Internal reliability of all three subscales was high (Cronbach's alpha = 0.92, 0.92, and 0.93 respectively). Significant (pbodybuilders scored significantly (pbodybuilders. However, there were no significant sex differences on any of the BDS subscales (p>0.05). The three factor BDS appears to be a reliable and valid measure of bodybuilding dependence. Symptoms of bodybuilding dependence are more prevalent in competitive bodybuilders than non-competitive ones, but there are no significant sex differences in bodybuilding dependence.

  9. Individualized adjustments to reference phantom internal organ dosimetry—scaling factors given knowledge of patient external anatomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wayson, Michael B.; Bolch, Wesley E.

    2018-04-01

    Internal radiation dose estimates for diagnostic nuclear medicine procedures are typically calculated for a reference individual. Resultantly, there is uncertainty when determining the organ doses to patients who are not at 50th percentile on either height or weight. This study aims to better personalize internal radiation dose estimates for individual patients by modifying the dose estimates calculated for reference individuals based on easily obtainable morphometric characteristics of the patient. Phantoms of different sitting heights and waist circumferences were constructed based on computational reference phantoms for the newborn, 10 year-old, and adult. Monoenergetic photons and electrons were then simulated separately at 15 energies. Photon and electron specific absorbed fractions (SAFs) were computed for the newly constructed non-reference phantoms and compared to SAFs previously generated for the age-matched reference phantoms. Differences in SAFs were correlated to changes in sitting height and waist circumference to develop scaling factors that could be applied to reference SAFs as morphometry corrections. A further set of arbitrary non-reference phantoms were then constructed and used in validation studies for the SAF scaling factors. Both photon and electron dose scaling methods were found to increase average accuracy when sitting height was used as the scaling parameter (~11%). Photon waist circumference-based scaling factors showed modest increases in average accuracy (~7%) for underweight individuals, but not for overweight individuals. Electron waist circumference-based scaling factors did not show increases in average accuracy. When sitting height and waist circumference scaling factors were combined, modest average gains in accuracy were observed for photons (~6%), but not for electrons. Both photon and electron absorbed doses are more reliably scaled using scaling factors computed in this study. They can be effectively scaled using sitting

  10. Individualized adjustments to reference phantom internal organ dosimetry-scaling factors given knowledge of patient external anatomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wayson, Michael B; Bolch, Wesley E

    2018-04-13

    Internal radiation dose estimates for diagnostic nuclear medicine procedures are typically calculated for a reference individual. Resultantly, there is uncertainty when determining the organ doses to patients who are not at 50th percentile on either height or weight. This study aims to better personalize internal radiation dose estimates for individual patients by modifying the dose estimates calculated for reference individuals based on easily obtainable morphometric characteristics of the patient. Phantoms of different sitting heights and waist circumferences were constructed based on computational reference phantoms for the newborn, 10 year-old, and adult. Monoenergetic photons and electrons were then simulated separately at 15 energies. Photon and electron specific absorbed fractions (SAFs) were computed for the newly constructed non-reference phantoms and compared to SAFs previously generated for the age-matched reference phantoms. Differences in SAFs were correlated to changes in sitting height and waist circumference to develop scaling factors that could be applied to reference SAFs as morphometry corrections. A further set of arbitrary non-reference phantoms were then constructed and used in validation studies for the SAF scaling factors. Both photon and electron dose scaling methods were found to increase average accuracy when sitting height was used as the scaling parameter (~11%). Photon waist circumference-based scaling factors showed modest increases in average accuracy (~7%) for underweight individuals, but not for overweight individuals. Electron waist circumference-based scaling factors did not show increases in average accuracy. When sitting height and waist circumference scaling factors were combined, modest average gains in accuracy were observed for photons (~6%), but not for electrons. Both photon and electron absorbed doses are more reliably scaled using scaling factors computed in this study. They can be effectively scaled using sitting

  11. Hydrogeological boundary settings in SR 97. Uncertainties in regional boundary settings and transfer of boundary conditions to site-scale models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Follin, S.

    1999-06-01

    The SR 97 project presents a performance assessment (PA) of the overall safety of a hypothetical deep repository at three sites in Sweden arbitrarily named Aberg, Beberg and Ceberg. One component of this PA assesses the uncertainties in the hydrogeological modelling. This study focuses on uncertainties in boundary settings (size of model domain and boundary conditions) in the regional and site-scale hydrogeological modelling of the three sites used to simulating the possible transport of radionuclides from the emplacement waste packages through the host rock to the accessible environment. Model uncertainties associated with, for instance, parameter heterogeneity and structural interpretations are addressed in other studies. This study concludes that the regional modelling of the SR 97 project addresses uncertainties in the choice of boundary conditions and size of model domain differently at each site, although the overall handling is acceptable and in accordance with common modelling practice. For example, the treatment of uncertainties with regard to the ongoing post-glacial flushing of the Baltic Shield is creditably addressed although not exhaustive from a modelling point of view. A significant contribution of the performed modelling is the study of nested numerical models, i.e., the numerical interplay between regional and site-scale numerical models. In the site-scale modelling great efforts are made to address problems associated with (i) the telescopic mesh refinement (TMR) technique with regard to the stochastic continuum approach, and (ii) the transfer of boundary conditions between variable-density flow systems and flow systems that are constrained to treat uniform density flow. This study concludes that the efforts made to handle these problems are acceptable with regards to the objectives of the SR 97 project

  12. Factor structure and concurrent validity of the world assumptions scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elklit, Ask; Shevlin, Mark; Solomon, Zahava; Dekel, Rachel

    2007-06-01

    The factor structure of the World Assumptions Scale (WAS) was assessed by means of confirmatory factor analysis. The sample was comprised of 1,710 participants who had been exposed to trauma that resulted in whiplash. Four alternative models were specified and estimated using LISREL 8.72. A correlated 8-factor solution was the best explanation of the sample data. The estimates of reliability of eight subscales of the WAS ranged from .48 to .82. Scores from five subscales correlated significantly with trauma severity as measured by the Harvard Trauma Questionnaire, although the magnitude of the correlations was low to modest, ranging from .08 to -.43. It is suggested that the WAS has adequate psychometric properties for use in both clinical and research settings.

  13. Expanded uncertainty associated with determination of isotope enrichment factors: Comparison of two point calculation and Rayleigh-plot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Julien, Maxime; Gilbert, Alexis; Yamada, Keita; Robins, Richard J; Höhener, Patrick; Yoshida, Naohiro; Remaud, Gérald S

    2018-01-01

    The enrichment factor (ε) is a common way to express Isotope Effects (IEs) associated with a phenomenon. Many studies determine ε using a Rayleigh-plot, which needs multiple data points. More recent articles describe an alternative method using the Rayleigh equation that allows the determination of ε using only one experimental point, but this method is often subject to controversy. However, a calculation method using two points (one experimental point and one at t 0 ) should lead to the same results because the calculation is derived from the Rayleigh equation. But, it is frequently asked "what is the valid domain of use of this two point calculation?" The primary aim of the present work is a systematic comparison of results obtained with these two methodologies and the determination of the conditions required for the valid calculation of ε. In order to evaluate the efficiency of the two approaches, the expanded uncertainty (U) associated with determining ε has been calculated using experimental data from three published articles. The second objective of the present work is to describe how to determine the expanded uncertainty (U) associated with determining ε. Comparative methodologies using both Rayleigh-plot and two point calculation are detailed and it is clearly demonstrated that calculation of ε using a single data point can give the same result as a Rayleigh-plot provided one strict condition is respected: that the experimental value is measured at a small fraction of unreacted substrate (f < 30%). This study will help stable isotope users to present their results in a more rigorous expression: ε ± U and therefore to define better the significance of an experimental results prior interpretation. Capsule: Enrichment factor can be determined through two different methods and the calculation of associated expanded uncertainty allows checking its significance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Factor Structure of the Conflict Tactics Scale 1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaori Baba

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: The Conflict Tactics Scale 1 (CTS1 is a widely used self-report measure of abusive attitudes of parents towards children. The factor structure of the CTS1 still remains to be clarified. The aim of this study was to examine the factor structure of the Japanese version of the CTS1 for postpartum women in community settings. Method: The data in this study came from the Okayama and Kumamoto’s study. These were part of a larger survey using longitudinal questionnaire studies conducted in Japan from 2001 to 2002 and in 2011, respectively. In both study sites, the participant mothers were asked to fill in the CTS1 one month after delivery when they attended for check-up at the out-patient clinic. Results: A total of 1,150 questionnaires were collected, excluding the participants with missing values in the CTS1. Finally, 1,078 were included in the statistical analyses. Data of 1,078 women were divided into two parts. In the first halved sample (n=578, an exploratory factor analysis was conducted for the CTS1 items after exluding nine items with extremely low prevalence. It revealed 2-factor or 3-factor models. Then, we conducted a model comparison with the second halved sample (n=500, using confirmatory factor analysis. In terms of goodness-of-fit indeces, the 2-factor model was superior. Its subscales were Reasoning and Psycholosical Aggression. Conclusion: The 2-factor model of the CTS1 consisting of Reasoning and Psychological Aggression was superior to the 3-factor model. This is not inconsistent with the original authors’ theoretical model.

  15. Management of groundwater in-situ bioremediation system using reactive transport modelling under parametric uncertainty: field scale application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verardo, E.; Atteia, O.; Rouvreau, L.

    2015-12-01

    In-situ bioremediation is a commonly used remediation technology to clean up the subsurface of petroleum-contaminated sites. Forecasting remedial performance (in terms of flux and mass reduction) is a challenge due to uncertainties associated with source properties and the uncertainties associated with contribution and efficiency of concentration reducing mechanisms. In this study, predictive uncertainty analysis of bio-remediation system efficiency is carried out with the null-space Monte Carlo (NSMC) method which combines the calibration solution-space parameters with the ensemble of null-space parameters, creating sets of calibration-constrained parameters for input to follow-on remedial efficiency. The first step in the NSMC methodology for uncertainty analysis is model calibration. The model calibration was conducted by matching simulated BTEX concentration to a total of 48 observations from historical data before implementation of treatment. Two different bio-remediation designs were then implemented in the calibrated model. The first consists in pumping/injection wells and the second in permeable barrier coupled with infiltration across slotted piping. The NSMC method was used to calculate 1000 calibration-constrained parameter sets for the two different models. Several variants of the method were implemented to investigate their effect on the efficiency of the NSMC method. The first variant implementation of the NSMC is based on a single calibrated model. In the second variant, models were calibrated from different initial parameter sets. NSMC calibration-constrained parameter sets were sampled from these different calibrated models. We demonstrate that in context of nonlinear model, second variant avoids to underestimate parameter uncertainty which may lead to a poor quantification of predictive uncertainty. Application of the proposed approach to manage bioremediation of groundwater in a real site shows that it is effective to provide support in

  16. Calculations for HFIR [High Flux Isotope Reactor] fuel plate non- bonding and fuel segregation uncertainty factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirkpatrick, J.R.

    1990-10-01

    The effects of non-bonds and of fuel segregation on the package factors of the heat flux in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) are examined. The effects of the two defects are examined both separately and together. It is concluded that the peaking factors that are used in the present HFIR thermal analysis code are conservative and thus no changes in the peaking factors are necessary to continue to ensure that HFIR is safe. A study was made of the effect of the non-bond spot diameter on the peaking factor. The conclusion is that the spot can have diameter more than three times the maximum value allowed by the specifications before the peaking factor is greater than the maximum value specified in the present HFIR thermal analysis code. 6 refs., 7 figs., 8 tabs

  17. Influence of the Factor of Uncertainty on Development and Implementation of Modern Russian Megaprojects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inna Vasilyevna Mitrofanova

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The general culture of design, planning and implementation of megaprojects in Russia is underdeveloped. Commercialization of procedures of projects’ justification and the involvement of expert community hinder an objective assessment of risks and efficiency of investment projects, while the aspiration to save money at stages of scientific justifications and skilled and experimental checks, lead often to adventurous decisions and unpredictable consequences. The article’s purpose is to reveal the identification signs of modern territorial megaprojects as important tool of the state strategic management and to reveal a complex of the various risks accompanying processes of development and implementation of large investment projects. The special attention is paid to such types of risk as competence and corruption risks. On the example of modern Russian megaprojects, such as “the Ural Industrial – the Ural Polar”, construction of Olympic objects in the city of Sochi, the authors show that these risks became either the reason of megaproject’s rebranding, or led to essential excess of the actual expenses in comparison with the planned. The authors are sure that identification of possible corruption risks at a predesign stage, accounting of reputation risks, elimination of low competences risks are an important task aimed at decrease of uncertainty of final effect from implementation of the territorial complex megaproject.

  18. Uncertainties of Large-Scale Forcing Caused by Surface Turbulence Flux Measurements and the Impacts on Cloud Simulations at the ARM SGP Site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, S.; Xie, S.; Tang, Q.; Zhang, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Two types of instruments, the eddy correlation flux measurement system (ECOR) and the energy balance Bowen ratio system (EBBR), are used at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program Southern Great Plains (SGP) site to measure surface latent and sensible fluxes. ECOR and EBBR typically sample different land surface types, and the domain-mean surface fluxes derived from ECOR and EBBR are not always consistent. The uncertainties of the surface fluxes will have impacts on the derived large-scale forcing data and further affect the simulations of single-column models (SCM), cloud-resolving models (CRM) and large-eddy simulation models (LES), especially for the shallow-cumulus clouds which are mainly driven by surface forcing. This study aims to quantify the uncertainties of the large-scale forcing caused by surface turbulence flux measurements and investigate the impacts on cloud simulations using long-term observations from the ARM SGP site.

  19. Eigenvalue sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification in SCALE6.2.1 using continuous-energy Monte Carlo Method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Labarile, A.; Barrachina, T.; Miró, R.; Verdú, G., E-mail: alabarile@iqn.upv.es, E-mail: tbarrachina@iqn.upv.es, E-mail: rmiro@iqn.upv.es, E-mail: gverdu@iqn.upv.es [Institute for Industrial, Radiophysical and Environmental Safety - ISIRYM, Valencia (Spain); Pereira, C., E-mail: claubia@nuclear.ufmg.br [Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil). Departamento de Engenharia Nuclear

    2017-07-01

    The use of Best-Estimate computer codes is one of the greatest concerns in the nuclear industry especially for licensing analysis. Of paramount importance is the estimation of the uncertainties of the whole system to establish the safety margins based on highly reliable results. The estimation of these uncertainties should be performed by applying a methodology to propagate the uncertainties from the input parameters and the models implemented in the code to the output parameters. This study employs two different approaches for the Sensitivity Analysis (SA) and Uncertainty Quantification (UQ), the adjoint-based perturbation theory of TSUNAMI-3D, and the stochastic sampling technique of SAMPLER/KENO. The cases studied are two models of Light Water Reactors in the framework of the OECD/NEA UAM-LWR benchmark, a Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) and a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). Both of them at Hot Full Power (HFP) and Hot Zero Power (HZP) conditions, with and without control rod. This work presents the results of k{sub eff} from different simulation, and discuss the comparison of the two methods employed. In particular, a list of the major contributors to the uncertainty of k{sub eff} in terms of microscopic cross sections; their sensitivity coefficients; a comparison between the results of the two modules and with reference values; statistical information from the stochastic approach, and the probability and statistical confidence reached in the simulations. The reader will find all these information discussed in this paper. (author)

  20. Water shortage risk assessment considering large-scale regional transfers: a copula-based uncertainty case study in Lunan, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Xueping; Liu, Yinzhu; Sun, Bowen

    2018-06-05

    The risk of water shortage caused by uncertainties, such as frequent drought, varied precipitation, multiple water resources, and different water demands, brings new challenges to the water transfer projects. Uncertainties exist for transferring water and local surface water; therefore, the relationship between them should be thoroughly studied to prevent water shortage. For more effective water management, an uncertainty-based water shortage risk assessment model (UWSRAM) is developed to study the combined effect of multiple water resources and analyze the shortage degree under uncertainty. The UWSRAM combines copula-based Monte Carlo stochastic simulation and the chance-constrained programming-stochastic multiobjective optimization model, using the Lunan water-receiving area in China as an example. Statistical copula functions are employed to estimate the joint probability of available transferring water and local surface water and sampling from the multivariate probability distribution, which are used as inputs for the optimization model. The approach reveals the distribution of water shortage and is able to emphasize the importance of improving and updating transferring water and local surface water management, and examine their combined influence on water shortage risk assessment. The possible available water and shortages can be calculated applying the UWSRAM, also with the corresponding allocation measures under different water availability levels and violating probabilities. The UWSRAM is valuable for mastering the overall multi-water resource and water shortage degree, adapting to the uncertainty surrounding water resources, establishing effective water resource planning policies for managers and achieving sustainable development.

  1. Factors affecting economies of scale in combined sewer systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maurer, Max; Wolfram, Martin; Anja, Herlyn

    2010-01-01

    A generic model is introduced that represents the combined sewer infrastructure of a settlement quantitatively. A catchment area module first calculates the length and size distribution of the required sewer pipes on the basis of rain patterns, housing densities and area size. These results are fed into the sewer-cost module in order to estimate the combined sewer costs of the entire catchment area. A detailed analysis of the relevant input parameters for Swiss settlements is used to identify the influence of size on costs. The simulation results confirm that an economy of scale exists for combined sewer systems. This is the result of two main opposing cost factors: (i) increased construction costs for larger sewer systems due to larger pipes and increased rain runoff in larger settlements, and (ii) lower costs due to higher population and building densities in larger towns. In Switzerland, the more or less organically grown settlement structures and limited land availability emphasise the second factor to show an apparent economy of scale. This modelling approach proved to be a powerful tool for understanding the underlying factors affecting the cost structure for water infrastructures.

  2. Factors of honeybee colony performances on sunflower at apiary scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kretzschmar André

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available An observatory of honeybee colonies (Apis mellifera, consisting of at least 200 colonies, divided into 10 apiaries of 20 colonies, was monitored for three years on sunflower honeyflow (2015–2017. The purpose of this observatory is to understand which factors control colony performance during sunflower honeyflow in south-western France. From the temporal dynamics of weight gain, statistical analysis reveals a hierarchy of factors. First, variability in apiary scale performance is an image of the effect of resource variability. But, in addition to this primordial factor, two other factors contribute very significantly to performance. On the one hand, the amount of capped brood and the number of bees at the time of the installation of the apiary: these two elements testify to the vitality of the colony. The second remarkable factor is the Varroa load, which strongly penalizes performance beyond a certain threshold. The negative effect of the Varroa load on the colony performance is minimized in case of abondant sunflower honey flow.

  3. Competitiveness of small-medium reactors. A probabilistic study on the economy of scale factor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trianni, A.; Locatelli, G.; Trucco, P.

    2009-01-01

    Smaller size reactors are able to play an important role in the worldwide nuclear renaissance. The major disadvantage of those new reactors - the unit size - would label the small-medium size reactors as not economically competitive with larger plants. But, the economy of scale law applies only if the designs are similar, which is not the case here, since the SMRs are designed with original and innovative solutions not accessible to large size reactors: the IRIS reactor is used as an example of small medium reactors (SMR), but the analyses and conclusions are applicable to the whole spectrum of SMRs. The aim of this paper is to present latest advances in the differential economical assessment of Generation Cost of SMRs compared to LRs. The international literature has started to present studies focused on the two major differential accounts of Levelized Unit Electricity Cost - Captial Costs ($/kWe) and Operation and Maintenance Costs ($/kWh) - providing deterministic values for the main cost drivers (i.e. economy of scale, multiple units, learning during construction, design characteristics and modular build, shorter construction time for CC, economy of scale location of the plant, number of units, capacity factor, learning by doing, plant obsolescence for O and M costs). Since the modern SMR market is in the early stages of development, it is necessary to consider also the uncertainties associated to current estimates of those cost drivers. When available, the uncertainty has been integrated in the Open Model assigning a probabilistic distribution to the input value of each cost driver. As Far as other cost drivers are concerned, parametric analyses are still under development and uncertainty analyses are not available: thus, conservative but realistic values for both of them have been assumed. Some reasonable future scenarios have been assumed, considering the private operator perspective for a single plant investment and postulating, among the others

  4. Single hadron response measurement and calorimeter jet energy scale uncertainty with the ATLAS detector at the LHC

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aad, G.; et al., [Unknown; Bentvelsen, S.; Berglund, E.; Bobbink, G.J.; Bos, K.; Boterenbrood, H.; Colijn, A.P.; de Jong, P.; de Nooij, L.; Deviveiros, P.O.; Doxiadis, A.D.; Ferrari, P.; Garitaonandia, H.; Geerts, D.A.A.; Gosselink, M.; Hartjes, F.; Hessey, N.P.; Igonkina, O.; Kayl, M.S.; Klous, S.; Kluit, P.; Koffeman, E.; Lee, H.; Lenz, T.; Linde, F.; Luijckx, G.; Massaro, G.; Mechnich, J.; Mussche, I.; Ottersbach, J.P.; Reichold, A.; Rijpstra, M.; Ruckstuhl, N.; Snuverink, J.; Ta, D.; Tsiakiris, M.; Turlay, E.; van der Graaf, H.; van der Kraaij, E.; van der Leeuw, R.; van der Poel, E.; van Kesteren, Z.; van Vulpen, I.; Verkerke, W.; Vermeulen, J.C.; Vranjes Milosavljevic, M.; Vreeswijk, M.

    2013-01-01

    The uncertainty on the calorimeter energy response to jets of particles is derived for the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). First, the calorimeter response to single isolated charged hadrons is measured and compared to the Monte Carlo simulation using proton-proton collisions at

  5. A 100,000 Scale Factor Radar Range.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanche, Pierre-Alexandre; Neifeld, Mark; Peyghambarian, Nasser

    2017-12-19

    The radar cross section of an object is an important electromagnetic property that is often measured in anechoic chambers. However, for very large and complex structures such as ships or sea and land clutters, this common approach is not practical. The use of computer simulations is also not viable since it would take many years of computational time to model and predict the radar characteristics of such large objects. We have now devised a new scaling technique to overcome these difficulties, and make accurate measurements of the radar cross section of large items. In this article we demonstrate that by reducing the scale of the model by a factor 100,000, and using near infrared wavelength, the radar cross section can be determined in a tabletop setup. The accuracy of the method is compared to simulations, and an example of measurement is provided on a 1 mm highly detailed model of a ship. The advantages of this scaling approach is its versatility, and the possibility to perform fast, convenient, and inexpensive measurements.

  6. Modeling sugarcane yield with a process-based model from site to continental scale: uncertainties arising from model structure and parameter values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valade, A.; Ciais, P.; Vuichard, N.; Viovy, N.; Caubel, A.; Huth, N.; Marin, F.; Martiné, J.-F.

    2014-06-01

    Agro-land surface models (agro-LSM) have been developed from the integration of specific crop processes into large-scale generic land surface models that allow calculating the spatial distribution and variability of energy, water and carbon fluxes within the soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum. When developing agro-LSM models, particular attention must be given to the effects of crop phenology and management on the turbulent fluxes exchanged with the atmosphere, and the underlying water and carbon pools. A part of the uncertainty of agro-LSM models is related to their usually large number of parameters. In this study, we quantify the parameter-values uncertainty in the simulation of sugarcane biomass production with the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS, using a multi-regional approach with data from sites in Australia, La Réunion and Brazil. In ORCHIDEE-STICS, two models are chained: STICS, an agronomy model that calculates phenology and management, and ORCHIDEE, a land surface model that calculates biomass and other ecosystem variables forced by STICS phenology. First, the parameters that dominate the uncertainty of simulated biomass at harvest date are determined through a screening of 67 different parameters of both STICS and ORCHIDEE on a multi-site basis. Secondly, the uncertainty of harvested biomass attributable to those most sensitive parameters is quantified and specifically attributed to either STICS (phenology, management) or to ORCHIDEE (other ecosystem variables including biomass) through distinct Monte Carlo runs. The uncertainty on parameter values is constrained using observations by calibrating the model independently at seven sites. In a third step, a sensitivity analysis is carried out by varying the most sensitive parameters to investigate their effects at continental scale. A Monte Carlo sampling method associated with the calculation of partial ranked correlation coefficients is used to quantify the sensitivity of harvested biomass to input

  7. Application of bias factor method with use of virtual experimental value to prediction uncertainty reduction in void reactivity worth of breeding light water reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kugo, Teruhiko; Mori, Takamasa; Kojima, Kensuke; Takeda, Toshikazu

    2007-01-01

    We have carried out the critical experiments for the MOX fueled tight lattice LWR cores using FCA facility and constructed the XXII-1 series cores. Utilizing the critical experiments carried out at FCA, we have evaluated the reduction of prediction uncertainty in the coolant void reactivity worth of the breeding LWR core based on the bias factor method with focusing on the prediction uncertainty due to cross section errors. In the present study, we have introduced a concept of a virtual experimental value into the conventional bias factor method to overcome a problem caused by the conventional bias factor method in which the prediction uncertainty increases in the case that the experimental core has the opposite reactivity worth and the consequent opposite sensitivity coefficients to the real core. To extend the applicability of the bias factor method, we have adopted an exponentiated experimental value as the virtual experimental value and formulated the prediction uncertainty reduction by the use of the bias factor method extended by the concept of the virtual experimental value. From the numerical evaluation, it has been shown that the prediction uncertainty due to cross section errors has been reduced by the use of the concept of the virtual experimental value. It is concluded that the introduction of virtual experimental value can effectively utilize experimental data and extend applicability of the bias factor method. (author)

  8. Main features and possibilities of the new scale module for calculation of sensitivity and uncertainty by sampling: SAMPLER; Principlaes caracteristicas y posibilidades del nuevo modulo de SCALE 6.2 para calculo de sensibilidad e incertidumbre por muestreo: SAMPLER

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mesado, C.; Miro, R.; Barrachina, T.; Verdu, G.

    2014-07-01

    Due to the importance of calculating sensitivity and uncertainty in the calculation of field engineering, and especially in the nuclear world, it has been decided to present the main features of the new module present in the new version of SCALE 6.2 (currently beta 3 version) called SAMPLER. This module allows the calculation of uncertainty in a wide range of effective sections, neutron parameters, composition and physical parameters. However, the calculation of sensitivity is not present in the beta 3 release. Even so, this module can be helpful for participants of the proposed Benchmark by Expert Group on Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling (UAM-LWR), as well as to analysts in general. (Author)

  9. The Relation between Cosmological Redshift and Scale Factor for Photons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tian, Shuxun, E-mail: tshuxun@mail.bnu.edu.cn [Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875 (China); Department of Physics, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072 (China)

    2017-09-10

    The cosmological constant problem has become one of the most important ones in modern cosmology. In this paper, we try to construct a model that can avoid the cosmological constant problem and have the potential to explain the apparent late-time accelerating expansion of the universe in both luminosity distance and angular diameter distance measurement channels. In our model, the core is to modify the relation between cosmological redshift and scale factor for photons. We point out three ways to test our hypothesis: the supernova time dilation; the gravitational waves and its electromagnetic counterparts emitted by the binary neutron star systems; and the Sandage–Loeb effect. All of this method is feasible now or in the near future.

  10. Large-Scale Uncertainty and Error Analysis for Time-dependent Fluid/Structure Interactions in Wind Turbine Applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alonso, Juan J. [Stanford University; Iaccarino, Gianluca [Stanford University

    2013-08-25

    The following is the final report covering the entire period of this aforementioned grant, June 1, 2011 - May 31, 2013 for the portion of the effort corresponding to Stanford University (SU). SU has partnered with Sandia National Laboratories (PI: Mike S. Eldred) and Purdue University (PI: Dongbin Xiu) to complete this research project and this final report includes those contributions made by the members of the team at Stanford. Dr. Eldred is continuing his contributions to this project under a no-cost extension and his contributions to the overall effort will be detailed at a later time (once his effort has concluded) on a separate project submitted by Sandia National Laboratories. At Stanford, the team is made up of Profs. Alonso, Iaccarino, and Duraisamy, post-doctoral researcher Vinod Lakshminarayan, and graduate student Santiago Padron. At Sandia National Laboratories, the team includes Michael Eldred, Matt Barone, John Jakeman, and Stefan Domino, and at Purdue University, we have Prof. Dongbin Xiu as our main collaborator. The overall objective of this project was to develop a novel, comprehensive methodology for uncertainty quantification by combining stochastic expansions (nonintrusive polynomial chaos and stochastic collocation), the adjoint approach, and fusion with experimental data to account for aleatory and epistemic uncertainties from random variable, random field, and model form sources. The expected outcomes of this activity were detailed in the proposal and are repeated here to set the stage for the results that we have generated during the time period of execution of this project: 1. The rigorous determination of an error budget comprising numerical errors in physical space and statistical errors in stochastic space and its use for optimal allocation of resources; 2. A considerable increase in efficiency when performing uncertainty quantification with a large number of uncertain variables in complex non-linear multi-physics problems; 3. A

  11. Novel bayes factors that capture expert uncertainty in prior density specification in genetic association studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spencer, Amy V; Cox, Angela; Lin, Wei-Yu; Easton, Douglas F; Michailidou, Kyriaki; Walters, Kevin

    2015-05-01

    Bayes factors (BFs) are becoming increasingly important tools in genetic association studies, partly because they provide a natural framework for including prior information. The Wakefield BF (WBF) approximation is easy to calculate and assumes a normal prior on the log odds ratio (logOR) with a mean of zero. However, the prior variance (W) must be specified. Because of the potentially high sensitivity of the WBF to the choice of W, we propose several new BF approximations with logOR ∼N(0,W), but allow W to take a probability distribution rather than a fixed value. We provide several prior distributions for W which lead to BFs that can be calculated easily in freely available software packages. These priors allow a wide range of densities for W and provide considerable flexibility. We examine some properties of the priors and BFs and show how to determine the most appropriate prior based on elicited quantiles of the prior odds ratio (OR). We show by simulation that our novel BFs have superior true-positive rates at low false-positive rates compared to those from both P-value and WBF analyses across a range of sample sizes and ORs. We give an example of utilizing our BFs to fine-map the CASP8 region using genotype data on approximately 46,000 breast cancer case and 43,000 healthy control samples from the Collaborative Oncological Gene-environment Study (COGS) Consortium, and compare the single-nucleotide polymorphism ranks to those obtained using WBFs and P-values from univariate logistic regression. © 2015 The Authors. *Genetic Epidemiology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Forest Conversion, Agricultural Transitions and the Influence of Multi-scale Market Factors in Southwest Cameroon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ordway, E.; Lambin, E.; Asner, G. P.

    2015-12-01

    The changing structure of demand for commodities associated with food security and energy has had a startling impact on land use change in tropical forests in recent decades. Yet, the composition of conversion in the Congo basin remains a major uncertainty, particularly with regards to the scale of drivers of change. Owing to rapid expansion of production globally and longstanding historical production locally in the Congo basin, oil palm offers a lens through which to evaluate local land use decisions across a spectrum of small- to large-scales of production as well as interactions with regional and global supply chains. We examined the effect of global commodity crop expansion on land use change in Southwest Cameroon using a mixed-methods approach to integrate remote sensing, field surveys and socioeconomic data. Southwest Cameroon (2.5 Mha) has a long history of large- and small-scale agriculture, ranging from mixed crop subsistence agriculture to large monocrop plantations of oil palm, cocoa, and rubber. Trends and spatial patterns of forest conversion and agricultural transitions were analyzed from 2000-2015 using satellite imagery. We used economic, demographic and field survey datasets to assess how regional and global market factors and local commodity crop decisions affect land use patterns. Our results show that oil palm is a major commodity crop expanding in this region, and that conversion is occurring primarily through expansion by medium-scale producers and local elites. Results also indicate that global and regional supply chain dynamics influence local land use decision making. This research contributes new information on land use patterns and dynamics in the Congo basin, an understudied region. More specifically, results from this research contribute information on recent trends of oil palm expansion in Cameroon that will be used in national land use planning strategies.

  13. A Bayesian approach to assessing the uncertainty in estimating bioconcentration factors in earthworms--the example of quinoxyfen.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fragoulis, George; Merli, Annalisa; Reeves, Graham; Meregalli, Giovanna; Stenberg, Kristofer; Tanaka, Taku; Capri, Ettore

    2011-06-01

    Quinoxyfen is a fungicide of the phenoxyquinoline class used to control powdery mildew, Uncinula necator (Schw.) Burr. Owing to its high persistence and strong sorption in soil, it could represent a risk for soil organisms if they are exposed at ecologically relevant concentrations. The objective of this paper is to predict the bioconcentration factors (BCFs) of quinoxyfen in earthworms, selected as a representative soil organism, and to assess the uncertainty in the estimation of this parameter. Three fields in each of four vineyards in southern and northern Italy were sampled over two successive years. The measured BCFs varied over time, possibly owing to seasonal changes and the consequent changes in behaviour and ecology of earthworms. Quinoxyfen did not accumulate in soil, as the mean soil concentrations at the end of the 2 year monitoring period ranged from 9.16 to 16.0 µg kg⁻¹ dw for the Verona province and from 23.9 to 37.5 µg kg⁻¹ dw for the Taranto province, with up to eight applications per season. To assess the uncertainty of the BCF in earthworms, a probabilistic approach was used, firstly by building with weighted bootstrapping techniques a generic probabilistic density function (PDF) accounting for variability and incompleteness of knowledge. The generic PDF was then used to derive prior distribution functions, which, by application of Bayes' theorem, were updated with the new measurements and a posterior distribution was finally created. The study is a good example of probabilistic risk assessment. The means of mean and SD posterior estimates of log BCFworm (2.06, 0.91) are the 'best estimate values'. Further risk assessment of quinoxyfen and other phenoxyquinoline fungicides and realistic representative scenarios for modelling exercises required for future authorization and post-authorization requirements can now use this value as input. Copyright © 2011 Society of Chemical Industry.

  14. Use of an uncertainty analysis for genome-scale models as a prediction tool for microbial growth processes in subsurface environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klier, Christine

    2012-03-06

    The integration of genome-scale, constraint-based models of microbial cell function into simulations of contaminant transport and fate in complex groundwater systems is a promising approach to help characterize the metabolic activities of microorganisms in natural environments. In constraint-based modeling, the specific uptake flux rates of external metabolites are usually determined by Michaelis-Menten kinetic theory. However, extensive data sets based on experimentally measured values are not always available. In this study, a genome-scale model of Pseudomonas putida was used to study the key issue of uncertainty arising from the parametrization of the influx of two growth-limiting substrates: oxygen and toluene. The results showed that simulated growth rates are highly sensitive to substrate affinity constants and that uncertainties in specific substrate uptake rates have a significant influence on the variability of simulated microbial growth. Michaelis-Menten kinetic theory does not, therefore, seem to be appropriate for descriptions of substrate uptake processes in the genome-scale model of P. putida. Microbial growth rates of P. putida in subsurface environments can only be accurately predicted if the processes of complex substrate transport and microbial uptake regulation are sufficiently understood in natural environments and if data-driven uptake flux constraints can be applied.

  15. Aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties in sampling based nuclear data uncertainty and sensitivity analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zwermann, W.; Krzykacz-Hausmann, B.; Gallner, L.; Klein, M.; Pautz, A.; Velkov, K.

    2012-01-01

    Sampling based uncertainty and sensitivity analyses due to epistemic input uncertainties, i.e. to an incomplete knowledge of uncertain input parameters, can be performed with arbitrary application programs to solve the physical problem under consideration. For the description of steady-state particle transport, direct simulations of the microscopic processes with Monte Carlo codes are often used. This introduces an additional source of uncertainty, the aleatoric sampling uncertainty, which is due to the randomness of the simulation process performed by sampling, and which adds to the total combined output sampling uncertainty. So far, this aleatoric part of uncertainty is minimized by running a sufficiently large number of Monte Carlo histories for each sample calculation, thus making its impact negligible as compared to the impact from sampling the epistemic uncertainties. Obviously, this process may cause high computational costs. The present paper shows that in many applications reliable epistemic uncertainty results can also be obtained with substantially lower computational effort by performing and analyzing two appropriately generated series of samples with much smaller number of Monte Carlo histories each. The method is applied along with the nuclear data uncertainty and sensitivity code package XSUSA in combination with the Monte Carlo transport code KENO-Va to various critical assemblies and a full scale reactor calculation. It is shown that the proposed method yields output uncertainties and sensitivities equivalent to the traditional approach, with a high reduction of computing time by factors of the magnitude of 100. (authors)

  16. Uncertainty analysis guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andres, T.H.

    2002-05-01

    This guide applies to the estimation of uncertainty in quantities calculated by scientific, analysis and design computer programs that fall within the scope of AECL's software quality assurance (SQA) manual. The guide weaves together rational approaches from the SQA manual and three other diverse sources: (a) the CSAU (Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty) evaluation methodology; (b) the ISO Guide,for the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement; and (c) the SVA (Systems Variability Analysis) method of risk analysis. This report describes the manner by which random and systematic uncertainties in calculated quantities can be estimated and expressed. Random uncertainty in model output can be attributed to uncertainties of inputs. The propagation of these uncertainties through a computer model can be represented in a variety of ways, including exact calculations, series approximations and Monte Carlo methods. Systematic uncertainties emerge from the development of the computer model itself, through simplifications and conservatisms, for example. These must be estimated and combined with random uncertainties to determine the combined uncertainty in a model output. This report also addresses the method by which uncertainties should be employed in code validation, in order to determine whether experiments and simulations agree, and whether or not a code satisfies the required tolerance for its application. (author)

  17. Uncertainty analysis guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andres, T.H

    2002-05-01

    This guide applies to the estimation of uncertainty in quantities calculated by scientific, analysis and design computer programs that fall within the scope of AECL's software quality assurance (SQA) manual. The guide weaves together rational approaches from the SQA manual and three other diverse sources: (a) the CSAU (Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty) evaluation methodology; (b) the ISO Guide,for the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement; and (c) the SVA (Systems Variability Analysis) method of risk analysis. This report describes the manner by which random and systematic uncertainties in calculated quantities can be estimated and expressed. Random uncertainty in model output can be attributed to uncertainties of inputs. The propagation of these uncertainties through a computer model can be represented in a variety of ways, including exact calculations, series approximations and Monte Carlo methods. Systematic uncertainties emerge from the development of the computer model itself, through simplifications and conservatisms, for example. These must be estimated and combined with random uncertainties to determine the combined uncertainty in a model output. This report also addresses the method by which uncertainties should be employed in code validation, in order to determine whether experiments and simulations agree, and whether or not a code satisfies the required tolerance for its application. (author)

  18. Fine scale spatial variability of microbial pesticide degradation in soil: scales, controlling factors, and implications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dechesne, Arnaud; Badawi, N.; Aamand, Jens

    2014-01-01

    across pesticide classes: they include some soil characteristics (pH) and some agricultural management practices (pesticide application, tillage), while other potential controlling factors have more conflicting effects depending on the site or the pesticide. Evidence demonstrating the importance......Pesticide biodegradation is a soil microbial function of critical importance for modern agriculture and its environmental impact. While it was once assumed that this activity was homogeneously distributed at the field scale, mounting evidence indicates that this is rarely the case. Here, we...... critically examine the literature on spatial variability of pesticide biodegradation in agricultural soil. We discuss the motivations, methods, and main findings of the primary literature. We found significant diversity in the approaches used to describe and quantify spatial heterogeneity, which complicates...

  19. Factor solutions of the Social Phobia Scale (SPS) and the Social Interaction Anxiety Scale (SIAS) in a Swedish population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mörtberg, Ewa; Reuterskiöld, Lena; Tillfors, Maria; Furmark, Tomas; Öst, Lars-Göran

    2017-06-01

    Culturally validated rating scales for social anxiety disorder (SAD) are of significant importance when screening for the disorder, as well as for evaluating treatment efficacy. This study examined construct validity and additional psychometric properties of two commonly used scales, the Social Phobia Scale and the Social Interaction Anxiety Scale, in a clinical SAD population (n = 180) and in a normal population (n = 614) in Sweden. Confirmatory factor analyses of previously reported factor solutions were tested but did not reveal acceptable fit. Exploratory factor analyses (EFA) of the joint structure of the scales in the total population yielded a two-factor model (performance anxiety and social interaction anxiety), whereas EFA in the clinical sample revealed a three-factor solution, a social interaction anxiety factor and two performance anxiety factors. The SPS and SIAS showed good to excellent internal consistency, and discriminated well between patients with SAD and a normal population sample. Both scales showed good convergent validity with an established measure of SAD, whereas the discriminant validity of symptoms of social anxiety and depression could not be confirmed. The optimal cut-off score for SPS and SIAS were 18 and 22 points, respectively. It is concluded that the factor structure and the additional psychometric properties of SPS and SIAS support the use of the scales for assessment in a Swedish population.

  20. A statistical study on scaling factors for radionuclide assay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahn, Sang Myun

    1993-02-01

    To comply with the classification requirements listed in 10 CFR 61, operators of nuclear power plants are recommended to identify and quantify the concentration of several nuclids in low-level radioactive wastes(LLWs). Much of the specified radionuclides can not be easily measured in routine plant analyses. Many indirect methods has been suggested to determine the radionuclide concentrations upon which the waste classification is based. Such indirect methods include the use of scaling factors which infer the concentration of one radionuclide from another which can be measured easily. In this study, correlation analysis is performed to find out the important variables. Regression equations are attempted to provide a means of indirectly determining the concentration of the difficult-to-measure nuclides based on the result of the correlation analysis. Then residual analysis and the corresponding stepwise procedure are followed to check the regression model and select the best regression equation. The regression equation whose log mean dispersion is smaller than 10 is suggested as the appropriate correlation formula. Most of the quadratic regression equations are turned out to be able to use as a correlation formula. But, TRUs show log mean dispersions which are much larger than 10. It is concluded that the mechanisms of their formation and disappearance are much more complex. And it is also difficult to select the key nuclide. In the case of TRUs, further study is required to find out the relevant correlation formula

  1. Factors influencing the decommissioning of large-scale nuclear plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Large, J.H.

    1988-01-01

    The decision-making process involving the decommissioning of the UK graphite moderated, gas-cooled nuclear power stations is complex. There are timing, engineering, waste disposal, cost and lost generation capacity factors to consider and the overall decision of when and how to proceed with decommissioning may include political and public tolerance dimensions. For the final stage of decommissioning the nuclear industry could either completely dismantle the reactor island leaving a green-field site or, alternatively, the reactor island could be maintained indefinitely with additional super- and substructure containment. At this time the first of these options, or deferred decommissioning, prevails and with this the nuclear industry has expressed considerable confidence that the technology required will become available with passing time, that acceptable radioactive waste disposal methods and facilities will be available and that the eventual costs of decommissioning will not escalate without restraint. If the deferred decommissioning strategy is wrong and it is not possible to completely dismantle the reactor islands a century into the future, then it may be too late to effect sufficient longer term containment to maintain the reactor hulks in a reliable condition. With respect to the final decommissioning of large-scale nuclear plant, it is concluded that the nuclear industry does not know quite how to do it, when it will be attempted and when it will be completed, and they do not know how much it will eventually cost. (author)

  2. Application of code scaling, applicability and uncertainty methodology to large break LOCA analysis of two loop PWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mavko, B.; Stritar, A.; Prosek, A.

    1993-01-01

    In NED 119, No. 1 (May 1990) a series of six papers published by a Technical Program Group presented a new methodology for the safety evaluation of emergency core cooling systems in nuclear power plants. This paper describes the application of that new methodology to the LB LOCA analysis of the two loop Westinghouse power plant. Results of the original work were used wherever possible, so that the analysis was finished in less than one man year of work. Steam generator plugging level and safety injection flow rate were used as additional uncertainty parameters, which had not been used in the original work. The computer code RELAP5/MOD2 was used. Response surface was generated by the regression analysis and by the artificial neural network like Optimal Statistical Estimator method. Results were compared also to the analytical calculation. (orig.)

  3. Validation of an uncertainty of illness scale adapted to use with Spanish emergency department patients and their accompanying relatives or friends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruymán Brito-Brito, Pedro; García-Tesouro, Esther; Fernández-Gutiérrez, Domingo Ángel; García-Hernández, Alfonso Miguel; Fernández-Gutiérrez, Raquel; Burillo-Putze, Guillermo

    2018-01-01

    To validate a Spanish adaptation of the Mishel Uncertainty of Illness Scale for use with emergency-department (ED) patients and their accompanying relatives or friends (the UIS-ED). We first developed a version of the questionnaire for Spanish ED situations. Next we assessed the content validity index for each of its items, revised it, and reassessed its face validity to produce a second version, which we then piloted in 20 hospital ED patients. A third revised version was then validated in a population of 320 adults (160 patients and 160 accompanying persons) who attended the ED between November 2015 and September 2016. The 12-item UIS-ED (60 points) was administered by 2 nurses while the patients and accompanying persons were in the ED. We gathered sociodemographic and clinical data as well as the subjects' perception about the information they were given. The mean (SD) uncertainty score among patients was 29 (11) points. Accompanying persons had a mean score of 36 (13) points. Factorial analysis confirmed the instrument's construct validity, finding that both dimensions of the original Mishel scale (complexity and ambiguity) were present in 6 items each. Factorial analysis explained 60% of the total variance in the patient version and 67% of the variance in the version for accompanying persons. Reliability statistics were good, with Cronbach's α values ranging from 0.912 to 0.938. Split-half reliability statistics ranged from 0.901 to 0.933. Correlations were significant in the analysis of convergent validity. The UIS-ED questionnaire may prove to be a simple, valid, and reliable way for assessing uncertainty in patients and their accompanying friends or relatives attending Spanish EDs.

  4. Collaborative Research: Quantifying the Uncertainties of Aerosol Indirect Effects and Impacts on Decadal-Scale Climate Variability in NCAR CAM5 and CESM1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nenes, Athanasios [Georgia Inst. of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States)

    2017-06-23

    The goal of this proposed project is to assess the climatic importance and sensitivity of aerosol indirect effect (AIE) to cloud and aerosol processes and feedbacks, which include organic aerosol hygroscopicity, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activation kinetics, Giant CCN, cloud-scale entrainment, ice nucleation in mixed-phase and cirrus clouds, and treatment of subgrid variability of vertical velocity. A key objective was to link aerosol, cloud microphysics and dynamics feedbacks in CAM5 with a suite of internally consistent and integrated parameterizations that provide the appropriate degrees of freedom to capture the various aspects of the aerosol indirect effect. The proposal integrated new parameterization elements into the cloud microphysics, moist turbulence and aerosol modules used by the NCAR Community Atmospheric Model version 5 (CAM5). The CAM5 model was then used to systematically quantify the uncertainties of aerosol indirect effects through a series of sensitivity tests with present-day and preindustrial aerosol emissions. New parameterization elements were developed as a result of these efforts, and new diagnostic tools & methodologies were also developed to quantify the impacts of aerosols on clouds and climate within fully coupled models. Observations were used to constrain key uncertainties in the aerosol-cloud links. Advanced sensitivity tools were developed and implements to probe the drivers of cloud microphysical variability with unprecedented temporal and spatial scale. All these results have been published in top and high impact journals (or are in the final stages of publication). This proposal has also supported a number of outstanding graduate students.

  5. Thermal properties at Aespoe HRL. Analysis of distribution and scale factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sundberg, Jan

    2003-04-01

    A thermal model for the Aespoe HRL as well as a general strategy for thermal modelling is under development. As a part of that work, thermal conductivities have been modelled from reference values of thermal conductivity of different minerals and from the mineral composition of all Aespoe samples in the Sicada database. The produced thermal conductivity database has been analysed in terms of frequency, type of distribution, spatial distribution, variogram etc. A correction factor has been estimated to compensate for discrepancies between measured and calculated values. The calculated values have been corrected according to measured values. The data has been analysed according to different rock types. However, there are uncertainties in the base material of rock classification, mainly due to problem to distinguish between Aespoe diorite and Aevroe granite, but also because of different classification systems. There is a relationship between thermal conductivity and density for the rock types at Aespoe. Equations of the relationship have been developed based on all thermal conductivity, heat capacity and density measurements. The equations have been tested on two bore holes at Aespoe with promising results. It may be possible to evaluate the spatial distribution of the thermal properties from density loggings. However, more work is needed to develop a complete model including the handling of high and low density zones. There is an insufficient knowledge in the variation of thermal properties at different scales. If the whole variation within a rock type is in the cm-m scale the thermal influence on the canister is small. This is due to the fact that the small-scale variation in thermal properties is mainly averaged out in the 5-10 m scale. If the main variation within rock types is in the 5-10 m scale there is probably a significant effect on the canister temperature. However, it is likely that the observed variation occurs in both these scales. Simulation has been

  6. Estimation of the Power Peaking Factor in a Nuclear Reactor Using Support Vector Machines and Uncertainty Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bae, In Ho; Na, Man Gyun; Lee, Yoon Joon; Park, Goon Cherl

    2009-01-01

    Knowing more about the Local Power Density (LPD) at the hottest part of a nuclear reactor core can provide more important information than knowledge of the LPD at any other position. The LPD at the hottest part needs to be estimated accurately in order to prevent the fuel rod from melting in a nuclear reactor. Support Vector Machines (SVMs) have successfully been applied in classification and regression problems. Therefore, in this paper, the power peaking factor, which is defined as the highest LPD to the average power density in a reactor core, was estimated by SVMs which use numerous measured signals of the reactor coolant system. The SVM models were developed by using a training data set and validated by an independent test data set. The SVM models' uncertainty was analyzed by using 100 sampled training data sets and verification data sets. The prediction intervals were very small, which means that the predicted values were very accurate. The predicted values were then applied to the first fuel cycle of the Yonggwang Nuclear Power Plant Unit 3. The root mean squared error was approximately 0.15%, which is accurate enough for use in LPD monitoring and for core protection that uses LPD estimation

  7. More Thoughts on AG-SG Comparisons and SG Scale Factor Determinations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crossley, David; Calvo, Marta; Rosat, Severine; Hinderer, Jacques

    2018-03-01

    We revisit a number of details that arise when doing joint AG-SG (absolute gravimeter-superconducting gravimeter) calibrations, focusing on the scale factor determination and the AG mean value that derives from the offset. When fitting SG data to AG data, the choice of which time span to use for the SG data can make a difference, as well as the inclusion of a trend that might be present in the fitting. The SG time delay has only a small effect. We review a number of options discussed recently in the literature on whether drops or sets provide the most accurate scale factor, and how to reject drops and sets to get the most consistent result. Two effects are clearly indicated by our tests, one being to smooth the raw SG 1 s (or similar sampling interval) data for times that coincide with AG drops, the other being a second pass in processing to reject residual outliers after the initial fit. Although drops can usefully provide smaller SG calibration errors compared to using set data, set values are more robust to data problems but one has to use the standard error to avoid large uncertainties. When combining scale factor determinations for the same SG at the same station, the expected gradual reduction of the error with each new experiment is consistent with the method of conflation. This is valid even when the SG data acquisition system is changed, or different AG's are used. We also find a relationship between the AG mean values obtained from SG to AG fits with the traditional short-term AG (`site') measurements usually done with shorter datasets. This involves different zero levels and corrections in the AG versus SG processing. Without using the Micro-g FG5 software it is possible to use the SG-derived corrections for tides, barometric pressure, and polar motion to convert an AG-SG calibration experiment into a site measurement (and vice versa). Finally, we provide a simple method for AG users who do not have the FG5-software to find an internal FG5 parameter that

  8. More Thoughts on AG-SG Comparisons and SG Scale Factor Determinations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crossley, David; Calvo, Marta; Rosat, Severine; Hinderer, Jacques

    2018-05-01

    We revisit a number of details that arise when doing joint AG-SG (absolute gravimeter-superconducting gravimeter) calibrations, focusing on the scale factor determination and the AG mean value that derives from the offset. When fitting SG data to AG data, the choice of which time span to use for the SG data can make a difference, as well as the inclusion of a trend that might be present in the fitting. The SG time delay has only a small effect. We review a number of options discussed recently in the literature on whether drops or sets provide the most accurate scale factor, and how to reject drops and sets to get the most consistent result. Two effects are clearly indicated by our tests, one being to smooth the raw SG 1 s (or similar sampling interval) data for times that coincide with AG drops, the other being a second pass in processing to reject residual outliers after the initial fit. Although drops can usefully provide smaller SG calibration errors compared to using set data, set values are more robust to data problems but one has to use the standard error to avoid large uncertainties. When combining scale factor determinations for the same SG at the same station, the expected gradual reduction of the error with each new experiment is consistent with the method of conflation. This is valid even when the SG data acquisition system is changed, or different AG's are used. We also find a relationship between the AG mean values obtained from SG to AG fits with the traditional short-term AG (`site') measurements usually done with shorter datasets. This involves different zero levels and corrections in the AG versus SG processing. Without using the Micro-g FG5 software it is possible to use the SG-derived corrections for tides, barometric pressure, and polar motion to convert an AG-SG calibration experiment into a site measurement (and vice versa). Finally, we provide a simple method for AG users who do not have the FG5-software to find an internal FG5 parameter that

  9. Fine scale spatial variability of microbial pesticide degradation in soil: scales, controlling factors, and implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arnaud eDechesne

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Pesticide biodegradation is a soil microbial function of critical importance for modern agriculture and its environmental impact. While it was once assumed that this activity was homogeneously distributed at the field scale, mounting evidence indicates that this is rarely the case. Here, we critically examine the literature on spatial variability of pesticide biodegradation in agricultural soil. We discuss the motivations, methods, and main findings of the primary literature. We found significant diversity in the approaches used to describe and quantify spatial heterogeneity, which complicates inter-studies comparisons. However, it is clear that the presence and activity of pesticide degraders is often highly spatially variable with coefficients of variation often exceeding 50% and frequently displays nonrandom spatial patterns. A few controlling factors have tentatively been identified across pesticide classes: they include some soil characteristics (pH and some agricultural management practices (pesticide application, tillage, while other potential controlling factors have more conflicting effects depending on the site or the pesticide. Evidence demonstrating the importance of spatial heterogeneity on the fate of pesticides in soil has been difficult to obtain but modelling and experimental systems that do not include soil’s full complexity reveal that this heterogeneity must be considered to improve prediction of pesticide biodegradation rates or of leaching risks. Overall, studying the spatial heterogeneity of pesticide biodegradation is a relatively new field at the interface of agronomy, microbial ecology, and geosciences and a wealth of novel data is being collected from these different disciplinary perspectives. We make suggestions on possible avenues to take full advantage of these investigations for a better understanding and prediction of the fate of pesticides in soil.

  10. Understanding uncertainty

    CERN Document Server

    Lindley, Dennis V

    2013-01-01

    Praise for the First Edition ""...a reference for everyone who is interested in knowing and handling uncertainty.""-Journal of Applied Statistics The critically acclaimed First Edition of Understanding Uncertainty provided a study of uncertainty addressed to scholars in all fields, showing that uncertainty could be measured by probability, and that probability obeyed three basic rules that enabled uncertainty to be handled sensibly in everyday life. These ideas were extended to embrace the scientific method and to show how decisions, containing an uncertain element, could be rationally made.

  11. On the need for a time- and location-dependent estimation of the NDSI threshold value for reducing existing uncertainties in snow cover maps at different scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Härer, Stefan; Bernhardt, Matthias; Siebers, Matthias; Schulz, Karsten

    2018-05-01

    Knowledge of current snow cover extent is essential for characterizing energy and moisture fluxes at the Earth's surface. The snow-covered area (SCA) is often estimated by using optical satellite information in combination with the normalized-difference snow index (NDSI). The NDSI thereby uses a threshold for the definition if a satellite pixel is assumed to be snow covered or snow free. The spatiotemporal representativeness of the standard threshold of 0.4 is however questionable at the local scale. Here, we use local snow cover maps derived from ground-based photography to continuously calibrate the NDSI threshold values (NDSIthr) of Landsat satellite images at two European mountain sites of the period from 2010 to 2015. The Research Catchment Zugspitzplatt (RCZ, Germany) and Vernagtferner area (VF, Austria) are both located within a single Landsat scene. Nevertheless, the long-term analysis of the NDSIthr demonstrated that the NDSIthr at these sites are not correlated (r = 0.17) and different than the standard threshold of 0.4. For further comparison, a dynamic and locally optimized NDSI threshold was used as well as another locally optimized literature threshold value (0.7). It was shown that large uncertainties in the prediction of the SCA of up to 24.1 % exist in satellite snow cover maps in cases where the standard threshold of 0.4 is used, but a newly developed calibrated quadratic polynomial model which accounts for seasonal threshold dynamics can reduce this error. The model minimizes the SCA uncertainties at the calibration site VF by 50 % in the evaluation period and was also able to improve the results at RCZ in a significant way. Additionally, a scaling experiment shows that the positive effect of a locally adapted threshold diminishes using a pixel size of 500 m or larger, underlining the general applicability of the standard threshold at larger scales.

  12. Factor Structure of Child Behavior Scale Scores in Peruvian Preschoolers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Erin L.; Schaefer, Barbara A.; Soto, Cesar Merino; Simmons, Crystal S.; Anguiano, Rebecca; Brett, Jeremy; Holman, Alea; Martin, Justin F.; Hata, Heidi K.; Roberts, Kimberly J.; Mello, Zena R.; Worrell, Frank C.

    2011-01-01

    Behavior rating scales aid in the identification of problem behaviors, as well as the development of interventions to reduce such behavior. Although scores on many behavior rating scales have been validated in the United States, there have been few such studies in other cultural contexts. In this study, the structural validity of scores on a…

  13. Confirmatory Factor Analysis of the Combined Social Phobia Scale and Social Interaction Anxiety Scale: Support for a Bifactor Model

    OpenAIRE

    Gomez, Rapson; Watson, Shaun D.

    2017-01-01

    For the Social Phobia Scale (SPS) and the Social Interaction Anxiety Scale (SIAS) together, this study examined support for a bifactor model, and also the internal consistency reliability and external validity of the factors in this model. Participants (N = 526) were adults from the general community who completed the SPS and SIAS. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) of their ratings indicated good support for the bifactor model. For this model, the loadings for all but six items were higher o...

  14. Uncertainty modelling and code calibration for composite materials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toft, Henrik Stensgaard; Branner, Kim; Mishnaevsky, Leon, Jr

    2013-01-01

    and measurement uncertainties which are introduced on the different scales. Typically, these uncertainties are taken into account in the design process using characteristic values and partial safety factors specified in a design standard. The value of the partial safety factors should reflect a reasonable balance...... to wind turbine blades are calibrated for two typical lay-ups using a large number of load cases and ratios between the aerodynamic forces and the inertia forces....

  15. Large-Scale Distributed Bayesian Matrix Factorization using Stochastic Gradient MCMC

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ahn, S.; Korattikara, A.; Liu, N.; Rajan, S.; Welling, M.

    2015-01-01

    Despite having various attractive qualities such as high prediction accuracy and the ability to quantify uncertainty and avoid ovrfitting, Bayesian Matrix Factorization has not been widely adopted because of the prohibitive cost of inference. In this paper, we propose a scalable distributed Bayesian

  16. Climate change impact on streamflow in large-scale river basins: projections and their uncertainties sourced from GCMs and RCP scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasonova, Olga N.; Gusev, Yeugeniy M.; Kovalev, Evgeny E.; Ayzel, Georgy V.

    2018-06-01

    Climate change impact on river runoff was investigated within the framework of the second phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP2) using a physically-based land surface model Soil Water - Atmosphere - Plants (SWAP) (developed in the Institute of Water Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences) and meteorological projections (for 2006-2099) simulated by five General Circulation Models (GCMs) (including GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NorESM1-M) for each of four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). Eleven large-scale river basins were used in this study. First of all, SWAP was calibrated and validated against monthly values of measured river runoff with making use of forcing data from the WATCH data set and all GCMs' projections were bias-corrected to the WATCH. Then, for each basin, 20 projections of possible changes in river runoff during the 21st century were simulated by SWAP. Analysis of the obtained hydrological projections allowed us to estimate their uncertainties resulted from application of different GCMs and RCP scenarios. On the average, the contribution of different GCMs to the uncertainty of the projected river runoff is nearly twice larger than the contribution of RCP scenarios. At the same time the contribution of GCMs slightly decreases with time.

  17. Integral emission factors for methane determined using urban flux measurements and local-scale inverse models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christen, Andreas; Johnson, Mark; Molodovskaya, Marina; Ketler, Rick; Nesic, Zoran; Crawford, Ben; Giometto, Marco; van der Laan, Mike

    2013-04-01

    The most important long-lived greenhouse gas (LLGHG) emitted during combustion of fuels is carbon dioxide (CO2), however also traces of the LLGHGs methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) are released, the quantities of which depend largely on the conditions of the combustion process. Emission factors determine the mass of LLGHGs emitted per energy used (or kilometre driven for cars) and are key inputs for bottom-up emission modelling. Emission factors for CH4 are typically determined in the laboratory or on a test stand for a given combustion system using a small number of samples (vehicles, furnaces), yet associated with larger uncertainties when scaled to entire fleets. We propose an alternative, different approach - Can integrated emission factors be independently determined using direct micrometeorological flux measurements over an urban surface? If so, do emission factors determined from flux measurements (top-down) agree with up-scaled emission factors of relevant combustion systems (heating, vehicles) in the source area of the flux measurement? Direct flux measurements of CH4 were carried out between February and May, 2012 over a relatively densely populated, urban surface in Vancouver, Canada by means of eddy covariance (EC). The EC-system consisted of an ultrasonic anemometer (CSAT-3, Campbell Scientific Inc.) and two open-path infrared gas analyzers (Li7500 and Li7700, Licor Inc.) on a tower at 30m above the surface. The source area of the EC system is characterised by a relative homogeneous morphometry (5.3m average building height), but spatially and temporally varying emission sources, including two major intersecting arterial roads (70.000 cars drive through the 50% source area per day) and seasonal heating in predominantly single-family houses (natural gas). An inverse dispersion model (turbulent source area model), validated against large eddy simulations (LES) of the urban roughness sublayer, allows the determination of the spatial area that

  18. Factor Structure of the Social Appearance Anxiety Scale in Turkish Early Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahin, Ertugrul; Topkaya, Nursel

    2015-01-01

    Although the Social Appearance Anxiety Scale (SAAS) is most often validated with the use of confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) on undergraduate students, exploratory factor analysis and multiple factor retention decision criteria necessitate the analysis of underlying factor structure to prevent over and under factoring as well as to reveal…

  19. Confirmatory Factor Analysis of the Combined Social Phobia Scale and Social Interaction Anxiety Scale: Support for a Bifactor Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez, Rapson; Watson, Shaun D.

    2017-01-01

    For the Social Phobia Scale (SPS) and the Social Interaction Anxiety Scale (SIAS) together, this study examined support for a bifactor model, and also the internal consistency reliability and external validity of the factors in this model. Participants (N = 526) were adults from the general community who completed the SPS and SIAS. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) of their ratings indicated good support for the bifactor model. For this model, the loadings for all but six items were higher on the general factor than the specific factors. The three positively worded items had negligible loadings on the general factor. The general factor explained most of the common variance in the SPS and SIAS, and demonstrated good model-based internal consistency reliability (omega hierarchical) and a strong association with fear of negative evaluation and extraversion. The practical implications of the findings for the utilization of the SPS and SIAS, and the theoretical and clinical implications for social anxiety are discussed. PMID:28210232

  20. Confirmatory Factor Analysis of the Combined Social Phobia Scale and Social Interaction Anxiety Scale: Support for a Bifactor Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez, Rapson; Watson, Shaun D

    2017-01-01

    For the Social Phobia Scale (SPS) and the Social Interaction Anxiety Scale (SIAS) together, this study examined support for a bifactor model, and also the internal consistency reliability and external validity of the factors in this model. Participants ( N = 526) were adults from the general community who completed the SPS and SIAS. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) of their ratings indicated good support for the bifactor model. For this model, the loadings for all but six items were higher on the general factor than the specific factors. The three positively worded items had negligible loadings on the general factor. The general factor explained most of the common variance in the SPS and SIAS, and demonstrated good model-based internal consistency reliability (omega hierarchical) and a strong association with fear of negative evaluation and extraversion. The practical implications of the findings for the utilization of the SPS and SIAS, and the theoretical and clinical implications for social anxiety are discussed.

  1. An inter-battery factor analysis of the comrey personality scales and the 16 personality factor questionnaire

    OpenAIRE

    Gideon P. de Bruin

    2000-01-01

    The scores of 700 Afrikaans-speaking university students on the Comrey Personality Scales and the 16 Personality Factor Questionnaire were subjected to an inter-battery factor analysis. This technique uses only the correlations between two sets of variables and reveals only the factors that they have in common. Three of the Big Five personality factors were revealed, namely Extroversion, Neuroticism and Conscientiousness. However, the Conscientiousness factor contained a relatively strong uns...

  2. Measurement Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koch, Michael

    Measurement uncertainty is one of the key issues in quality assurance. It became increasingly important for analytical chemistry laboratories with the accreditation to ISO/IEC 17025. The uncertainty of a measurement is the most important criterion for the decision whether a measurement result is fit for purpose. It also delivers help for the decision whether a specification limit is exceeded or not. Estimation of measurement uncertainty often is not trivial. Several strategies have been developed for this purpose that will shortly be described in this chapter. In addition the different possibilities to take into account the uncertainty in compliance assessment are explained.

  3. Factors Influencing Uptake of a Large Scale Curriculum Innovation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adey, Philip S.

    Educational research has all too often failed to be implemented on a large-scale basis. This paper describes the multiplier effect of a professional development program for teachers and for trainers in the United Kingdom, and how that program was developed, monitored, and evaluated. Cognitive Acceleration through Science Education (CASE) is a…

  4. Update on the jet energy scale systematic uncertainty for jets produced in proton-proton collisions at $\\sqrt{s}=7$~TeV measured with the ATLAS detector

    CERN Document Server

    The ATLAS collaboration

    2011-01-01

    An update to the jet energy scale systematic uncertainty for inclusive jets measured in the ATLAS detector and produced in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of $\\sqrt{s}=7$~TeV is described. The jet energy scale systematic uncertainty for jets reconstructed with the \\antikt~algorithm with distance parameters of $R=0.4$ and $R=0.6$ is evaluated starting from a transverse momentum of $20$~GeV and for a calorimeter coverage up to pseudo-rapidities of $|\\eta| = 4.5$. In the central detector region the jet energy scale uncertainty is obtained from the single isolated hadron response measured in-situ in proton proton collisions and in the ATLAS combined test-beam for pion momenta up to $350$~GeV. Further uncertainties are evaluated with systematic variations of Monte Carlo simulations. The uncertainty is extended to the endcap and forward detector regions exploiting the transverse momentum balance between a central and a forward jet in events where only two jets are produced. The JES uncertainty a...

  5. A stochastic mathematical model to locate field hospitals under disruption uncertainty for large-scale disaster preparedness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nezir Aydin

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we consider field hospital location decisions for emergency treatment points in response to large scale disasters. Specifically, we developed a two-stage stochastic model that determines the number and locations of field hospitals and the allocation of injured victims to these field hospitals. Our model considers the locations as well as the failings of the existing public hospitals while deciding on the location of field hospitals that are anticipated to be opened. The model that we developed is a variant of the P-median location model and it integrates capacity restrictions both on field hospitals that are planned to be opened and the disruptions that occur in existing public hospitals. We conducted experiments to demonstrate how the proposed model can be utilized in practice in a real life problem case scenario. Results show the effects of the failings of existing hospitals, the level of failure probability and the capacity of projected field hospitals to deal with the assessment of any given emergency treatment system’s performance. Crucially, it also specifically provides an assessment on the average distance within which a victim needs to be transferred in order to be treated properly and then from this assessment, the proportion of total satisfied demand is then calculated.

  6. Experimental Approach for the Uncertainty Assessment of 3D Complex Geometry Dimensional Measurements Using Computed Tomography at the mm and Sub-mm Scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiménez, Roberto; Torralba, Marta; Yagüe-Fabra, José A; Ontiveros, Sinué; Tosello, Guido

    2017-05-16

    The dimensional verification of miniaturized components with 3D complex geometries is particularly challenging. Computed Tomography (CT) can represent a suitable alternative solution to micro metrology tools based on optical and tactile techniques. However, the establishment of CT systems' traceability when measuring 3D complex geometries is still an open issue. In this work, an alternative method for the measurement uncertainty assessment of 3D complex geometries by using CT is presented. The method is based on the micro-CT system Maximum Permissible Error (MPE) estimation, determined experimentally by using several calibrated reference artefacts. The main advantage of the presented method is that a previous calibration of the component by a more accurate Coordinate Measuring System (CMS) is not needed. In fact, such CMS would still hold all the typical limitations of optical and tactile techniques, particularly when measuring miniaturized components with complex 3D geometries and their inability to measure inner parts. To validate the presented method, the most accepted standard currently available for CT sensors, the Verein Deutscher Ingenieure/Verband Deutscher Elektrotechniker (VDI/VDE) guideline 2630-2.1 is applied. Considering the high number of influence factors in CT and their impact on the measuring result, two different techniques for surface extraction are also considered to obtain a realistic determination of the influence of data processing on uncertainty. The uncertainty assessment of a workpiece used for micro mechanical material testing is firstly used to confirm the method, due to its feasible calibration by an optical CMS. Secondly, the measurement of a miniaturized dental file with 3D complex geometry is carried out. The estimated uncertainties are eventually compared with the component's calibration and the micro manufacturing tolerances to demonstrate the suitability of the presented CT calibration procedure. The 2U/T ratios resulting from the

  7. Reduced uncertainty of regional scale CLM predictions of net carbon fluxes and leaf area indices with estimated plant-specific parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Post, Hanna; Hendricks Franssen, Harrie-Jan; Han, Xujun; Baatz, Roland; Montzka, Carsten; Schmidt, Marius; Vereecken, Harry

    2016-04-01

    Reliable estimates of carbon fluxes and states at regional scales are required to reduce uncertainties in regional carbon balance estimates and to support decision making in environmental politics. In this work the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5-BGC) was applied at a high spatial resolution (1 km2) for the Rur catchment in western Germany. In order to improve the model-data consistency of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and leaf area index (LAI) for this study area, five plant functional type (PFT)-specific CLM4.5-BGC parameters were estimated with time series of half-hourly NEE data for one year in 2011/2012, using the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach. The parameters were estimated separately for four different plant functional types (needleleaf evergreen temperate tree, broadleaf deciduous temperate tree, C3-grass and C3-crop) at four different sites. The four sites are located inside or close to the Rur catchment. We evaluated modeled NEE for one year in 2012/2013 with NEE measured at seven eddy covariance sites in the catchment, including the four parameter estimation sites. Modeled LAI was evaluated by means of LAI derived from remotely sensed RapidEye images of about 18 days in 2011/2012. Performance indices were based on a comparison between measurements and (i) a reference run with CLM default parameters, and (ii) a 60 instance CLM ensemble with parameters sampled from the DREAM posterior probability density functions (pdfs). The difference between the observed and simulated NEE sum reduced 23% if estimated parameters instead of default parameters were used as input. The mean absolute difference between modeled and measured LAI was reduced by 59% on average. Simulated LAI was not only improved in terms of the absolute value but in some cases also in terms of the timing (beginning of vegetation onset), which was directly related to a substantial improvement of the NEE estimates in

  8. Uncertainty analysis in seismic tomography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owoc, Bartosz; Majdański, Mariusz

    2017-04-01

    Velocity field from seismic travel time tomography depends on several factors like regularization, inversion path, model parameterization etc. The result also strongly depends on an initial velocity model and precision of travel times picking. In this research we test dependence on starting model in layered tomography and compare it with effect of picking precision. Moreover, in our analysis for manual travel times picking the uncertainty distribution is asymmetric. This effect is shifting the results toward faster velocities. For calculation we are using JIVE3D travel time tomographic code. We used data from geo-engineering and industrial scale investigations, which were collected by our team from IG PAS.

  9. The factor structure of the self-directed learning readiness scale | de ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The factor structure of the Self-Directed Learning Readiness Scale (SDLRS) was investigated for Afrikaans and English-speaking first-year university students. Five factors were extracted and rotated to oblique simple structure for both groups. Four of the five factors were satisfactorily replicated. The fifth factor appeared to ...

  10. International training program: 3D S.UN.COP - Scaling, uncertainty and 3D thermal-hydraulics/neutron-kinetics coupled codes seminar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petruzzi, A.; D'Auria, F.; Bajs, T.; Reventos, F.

    2006-01-01

    Thermal-hydraulic system computer codes are extensively used worldwide for analysis of nuclear facilities by utilities, regulatory bodies, nuclear power plant designers and vendors, nuclear fuel companies, research organizations, consulting companies, and technical support organizations. The computer code user represents a source of uncertainty that can influence the results of system code calculations. This influence is commonly known as the 'user effect' and stems from the limitations embedded in the codes as well as from the limited capability of the analysts to use the codes. Code user training and qualification is an effective means for reducing the variation of results caused by the application of the codes by different users. This paper describes a systematic approach to training code users who, upon completion of the training, should be able to perform calculations making the best possible use of the capabilities of best estimate codes. In other words, the program aims at contributing towards solving the problem of user effect. The 3D S.UN.COP 2005 (Scaling, Uncertainty and 3D COuPled code calculations) seminar has been organized by University of Pisa and University of Zagreb as follow-up of the proposal to IAEA for the Permanent Training Course for System Code Users (D'Auria, 1998). It was recognized that such a course represented both a source of continuing education for current code users and a means for current code users to enter the formal training structure of a proposed 'permanent' stepwise approach to user training. The seminar-training was successfully held with the participation of 19 persons coming from 9 countries and 14 different institutions (universities, vendors, national laboratories and regulatory bodies). More than 15 scientists were involved in the organization of the seminar, presenting theoretical aspects of the proposed methodologies and holding the training and the final examination. A certificate (LA Code User grade) was released

  11. Development of scaling factor prediction method for radionuclide composition in low-level radioactive waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Jin Beak

    1995-02-01

    Low-level radioactive waste management require the knowledge of the natures and quantities of radionuclides in the immobilized or packaged waste. U. S. NRC rules require programs that measure the concentrations of all relevant nuclides either directly or indirectly by relating difficult-to-measure radionuclides to other easy-to-measure radionuclides with application of scaling factors. Scaling factors previously developed through statistical approach can give only generic ones and have many difficult problem about sampling procedures. Generic scaling factors can not take into account for plant operation history. In this study, a method to predict plant-specific and operational history dependent scaling factors is developed. Realistic and detailed approach are taken to find scaling factors at reactor coolant. This approach begin with fission product release mechanisms and fundamental release properties of fuel-source nuclide such as fission product and transuranic nuclide. Scaling factors at various waste streams are derived from the predicted reactor coolant scaling factors with the aid of radionuclide retention and build up model. This model make use of radioactive material balance within the radioactive waste processing systems. Scaling factors at reactor coolant and waste streams which can include the effects of plant operation history have been developed according to input parameters of plant operation history

  12. Factor Stability of Primary Scales of the General Organization Questionnaire

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-10-01

    leadership , climate , and processes function optimally. The Leadership and Organizational Effectiveness Work Unit re- searches personal, small-group...the Litwin and Stringer (1968) Organizational Climate Questionnaire found a factor structure that was dif- ferent from the a priori structure...number) General Organization Questionnaire (GOQ) Organizational climate Organizational effectiveness 20. ATRACT (Cnm N eriwem7 d Iderntify by block numbst

  13. Strategic Factor Markets Scale Free Resources and Economic Performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Geisler Asmussen, Christian

    2015-01-01

    -theoretic model, it shows how the impact of strategic factor markets on economic profits is influenced by product market rivalry, preexisting competitive (dis)advantages, and the interaction of acquired resources with those preexisting asymmetries. New insights include the result that resource suppliers will aim...

  14. Uncertainty evaluation of EnPIs in industrial applications as a key factor in setting improvement actions

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Emilia, G.; Di Gasbarro, D.; Gaspari, A.; Natale, E.

    2015-11-01

    A methodology is proposed assuming high-level Energy Performance Indicators (EnPIs) uncertainty as quantitative indicator of the evolution of an Energy Management System (EMS). Motivations leading to the selection of the EnPIs, uncertainty evaluation techniques and criteria supporting decision-making are discussed, in order to plan and pursue reliable measures for energy performance improvement. In this paper, problems, priorities, operative possibilities and reachable improvement limits are examined, starting from the measurement uncertainty assessment. Two different industrial cases are analysed with reference to the following aspects: absence/presence of energy management policy and action plans; responsibility level for the energy issues; employees’ training and motivation in respect of the energy problems; absence/presence of adequate infrastructures for monitoring and sharing of energy information; level of standardization and integration of methods and procedures linked to the energy activities; economic and financial resources for the improvement of energy efficiency. A critic and comparative analysis of the obtained results is realized. The methodology, experimentally validated, allows developing useful considerations for effective, realistic and economically feasible improvement plans, depending on the specific situation. Recursive application of the methodology allows getting reliable and resolved assessment of the EMS status, also in dynamic industrial contexts.

  15. Examination of factor structure for the consumers' responses to the Value Consciousness Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conrad, C A; Williams, J R

    2000-12-01

    The psychometric properties of the Value Consciousness Scale developed by Lichtenstein, Netemeyer, and Burton in 1990 were examined in a retail grocery study (N = 497). Original assessment of scale properties was undertaken using two convenience samples in a nonretail setting and additional scale performance has been documented by the scale authors. This study furthers previous research by (1) examining performance on the items in the retail grocery setting and (2) utilizing an appropriately rigorous sampling procedure. A confirmatory factor analysis indicated that the Value Consciousness Scale does not exhibit unidimensional properties, and one must be cautious if this scale is used in applications of market segmentation until further clarification can be provided.

  16. Climate pattern-scaling set for an ensemble of 22 GCMs – adding uncertainty to the IMOGEN version 2.0 impact system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Zelazowski

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Global circulation models (GCMs are the best tool to understand climate change, as they attempt to represent all the important Earth system processes, including anthropogenic perturbation through fossil fuel burning. However, GCMs are computationally very expensive, which limits the number of simulations that can be made. Pattern scaling is an emulation technique that takes advantage of the fact that local and seasonal changes in surface climate are often approximately linear in the rate of warming over land and across the globe. This allows interpolation away from a limited number of available GCM simulations, to assess alternative future emissions scenarios. In this paper, we present a climate pattern-scaling set consisting of spatial climate change patterns along with parameters for an energy-balance model that calculates the amount of global warming. The set, available for download, is derived from 22 GCMs of the WCRP CMIP3 database, setting the basis for similar eventual pattern development for the CMIP5 and forthcoming CMIP6 ensemble. Critically, it extends the use of the IMOGEN (Integrated Model Of Global Effects of climatic aNomalies framework to enable scanning across full uncertainty in GCMs for impact studies. Across models, the presented climate patterns represent consistent global mean trends, with a maximum of 4 (out of 22 GCMs exhibiting the opposite sign to the global trend per variable (relative humidity. The described new climate regimes are generally warmer, wetter (but with less snowfall, cloudier and windier, and have decreased relative humidity. Overall, when averaging individual performance across all variables, and without considering co-variance, the patterns explain one-third of regional change in decadal averages (mean percentage variance explained, PVE, 34.25 ± 5.21, but the signal in some models exhibits much more linearity (e.g. MIROC3.2(hires: 41.53 than in others (GISS_ER: 22.67. The two most often

  17. Climate pattern-scaling set for an ensemble of 22 GCMs - adding uncertainty to the IMOGEN version 2.0 impact system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zelazowski, Przemyslaw; Huntingford, Chris; Mercado, Lina M.; Schaller, Nathalie

    2018-02-01

    Global circulation models (GCMs) are the best tool to understand climate change, as they attempt to represent all the important Earth system processes, including anthropogenic perturbation through fossil fuel burning. However, GCMs are computationally very expensive, which limits the number of simulations that can be made. Pattern scaling is an emulation technique that takes advantage of the fact that local and seasonal changes in surface climate are often approximately linear in the rate of warming over land and across the globe. This allows interpolation away from a limited number of available GCM simulations, to assess alternative future emissions scenarios. In this paper, we present a climate pattern-scaling set consisting of spatial climate change patterns along with parameters for an energy-balance model that calculates the amount of global warming. The set, available for download, is derived from 22 GCMs of the WCRP CMIP3 database, setting the basis for similar eventual pattern development for the CMIP5 and forthcoming CMIP6 ensemble. Critically, it extends the use of the IMOGEN (Integrated Model Of Global Effects of climatic aNomalies) framework to enable scanning across full uncertainty in GCMs for impact studies. Across models, the presented climate patterns represent consistent global mean trends, with a maximum of 4 (out of 22) GCMs exhibiting the opposite sign to the global trend per variable (relative humidity). The described new climate regimes are generally warmer, wetter (but with less snowfall), cloudier and windier, and have decreased relative humidity. Overall, when averaging individual performance across all variables, and without considering co-variance, the patterns explain one-third of regional change in decadal averages (mean percentage variance explained, PVE, 34.25 ± 5.21), but the signal in some models exhibits much more linearity (e.g. MIROC3.2(hires): 41.53) than in others (GISS_ER: 22.67). The two most often considered variables

  18. Factor validation of the portuguese version of the social skills scale of the Preschool and Kindergarten Behavior Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria João Seabra-Santos

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The assessment of preschoolers’ social skills represents a topic of growing importance in research recently developed in the field. The purpose of this article is to present confirmatory factor analyses studies for the Social Skills scale of the Preschool and Kindergarten Behavior Scales – Second Edition (PKBS-2, a behavior rating scale that evaluates social skills and problem behaviors, adapted and validated for Portuguese preschool children. The 34 items of the Social Skills scale, distributed on three subscales (Social Cooperation/Adjustment, Social Interaction/Empathy and Social Independence/Assertiveness, were grouped into item-parcels. Model adjustment was analyzed for the total sample (N = 2000 and the analyses were replicated for the subsamples collected in the home (n = 1000 and school settings (n = 1000. The factor structure was very stable for the three samples, with high internal consistency levels and correlations between parcels/scales. The results highlight the utility/validity of the Social Skills scale of the PKBS-2 (Portuguese version.

  19. Uncertainty theory

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Baoding

    2015-01-01

    When no samples are available to estimate a probability distribution, we have to invite some domain experts to evaluate the belief degree that each event will happen. Perhaps some people think that the belief degree should be modeled by subjective probability or fuzzy set theory. However, it is usually inappropriate because both of them may lead to counterintuitive results in this case. In order to rationally deal with belief degrees, uncertainty theory was founded in 2007 and subsequently studied by many researchers. Nowadays, uncertainty theory has become a branch of axiomatic mathematics for modeling belief degrees. This is an introductory textbook on uncertainty theory, uncertain programming, uncertain statistics, uncertain risk analysis, uncertain reliability analysis, uncertain set, uncertain logic, uncertain inference, uncertain process, uncertain calculus, and uncertain differential equation. This textbook also shows applications of uncertainty theory to scheduling, logistics, networks, data mining, c...

  20. Identification of the underlying factor structure of the Derriford Appearance Scale 24

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy P. Moss

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Background. The Derriford Appearance Scale24 (DAS24 is a widely used measure of distress and dysfunction in relation to self-consciousness of appearance. It has been used in clinical and research settings, and translated into numerous European and Asian languages. Hitherto, no study has conducted an analysis to determine the underlying factor structure of the scale.Methods. A large (n = 1,265 sample of community and hospital patients with a visible difference were recruited face to face or by post, and completed the DAS24.Results. A two factor solution was generated. An evaluation of the congruence of the factor solutions on each of the the hospital and the community samples using Tucker’s Coefficient of Congruence (rc = .979 and confirmatory factor analysis, which demonstrated a consistent factor structure. A main factor, general self consciousness (GSC, was represented by 18 items. Six items comprised a second factor, sexual and body self-consciousness (SBSC. The SBSC scale demonstrated greater sensitivity and specificity in identifying distress for sexually significant areas of the body.Discussion. The factor structure of the DAS24 facilitates a more nuanced interpretation of scores using this scale. Two conceptually and statistically coherent sub-scales were identified. The SBSC sub-scale offers a means of identifying distress and dysfunction around sexually significant areas of the body not previously possible with this scale.

  1. A two-step combination of top-down and bottom-up fire emission estimates at regional and global scales: strengths and main uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sofiev, Mikhail; Soares, Joana; Kouznetsov, Rostislav; Vira, Julius; Prank, Marje

    2016-04-01

    Top-down emission estimation via inverse dispersion modelling is used for various problems, where bottom-up approaches are difficult or highly uncertain. One of such areas is the estimation of emission from wild-land fires. In combination with dispersion modelling, satellite and/or in-situ observations can, in principle, be used to efficiently constrain the emission values. This is the main strength of the approach: the a-priori values of the emission factors (based on laboratory studies) are refined for real-life situations using the inverse-modelling technique. However, the approach also has major uncertainties, which are illustrated here with a few examples of the Integrated System for wild-land Fires (IS4FIRES). IS4FIRES generates the smoke emission and injection profile from MODIS and SEVIRI active-fire radiative energy observations. The emission calculation includes two steps: (i) initial top-down calibration of emission factors via inverse dispersion problem solution that is made once using training dataset from the past, (ii) application of the obtained emission coefficients to individual-fire radiative energy observations, thus leading to bottom-up emission compilation. For such a procedure, the major classes of uncertainties include: (i) imperfect information on fires, (ii) simplifications in the fire description, (iii) inaccuracies in the smoke observations and modelling, (iv) inaccuracies of the inverse problem solution. Using examples of the fire seasons 2010 in Russia, 2012 in Eurasia, 2007 in Australia, etc, it is pointed out that the top-down system calibration performed for a limited number of comparatively moderate cases (often the best-observed ones) may lead to errors in application to extreme events. For instance, the total emission of 2010 Russian fires is likely to be over-estimated by up to 50% if the calibration is based on the season 2006 and fire description is simplified. Longer calibration period and more sophisticated parameterization

  2. Uncertainties in the correction factors as the dose polarization and recombination at different energies; Incertidumbres en la medida de factores de correccion a la dosis por polarizacion y recombinacion a diferentes energias

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alejo Luque, L.; Rodriguez Romero, R.; Castro Tejero, P.; Fandino Lareo, J. M.

    2011-07-01

    This paper discusses the measures and uncertainties of the correction factors for dose-polarization (k, 1) and recombination (k,) of different ionization chambers plane-parallel and cylindrical. The values ??have been obtained using photon and electron beams of various energies generated by linear accelerators nominal Varian 21EX CLJNAC Tomotherapy Hi-Art and JI. We study the cases in which you can avoid the application of the factors obtained, according to the criteria proposed.

  3. Modified stress intensity factor as a crack growth parameter applicable under large scale yielding conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yasuoka, Tetsuo; Mizutani, Yoshihiro; Todoroki, Akira

    2014-01-01

    High-temperature water stress corrosion cracking has high tensile stress sensitivity, and its growth rate has been evaluated using the stress intensity factor, which is a linear fracture mechanics parameter. Stress corrosion cracking mainly occurs and propagates around welded metals or heat-affected zones. These regions have complex residual stress distributions and yield strength distributions because of input heat effects. The authors previously reported that the stress intensity factor becomes inapplicable when steep residual stress distributions or yield strength distributions occur along the crack propagation path, because small-scale yielding conditions deviate around those distributions. Here, when the stress intensity factor is modified by considering these distributions, the modified stress intensity factor may be used for crack growth evaluation for large-scale yielding. The authors previously proposed a modified stress intensity factor incorporating the stress distribution or yield strength distribution in front of the crack using the rate of change of stress intensity factor and yield strength. However, the applicable range of modified stress intensity factor for large-scale yielding was not clarified. In this study, the range was analytically investigated by comparison with the J-integral solution. A three-point bending specimen with parallel surface crack was adopted as the analytical model and the stress intensity factor, modified stress intensity factor and equivalent stress intensity factor derived from the J-integral were calculated and compared under large-scale yielding conditions. The modified stress intensity was closer to the equivalent stress intensity factor when compared with the stress intensity factor. If deviation from the J-integral solution is acceptable up to 2%, the modified stress intensity factor is applicable up to 30% of the J-integral limit, while the stress intensity factor is applicable up to 10%. These results showed that

  4. Ecological factors affect the level and scaling of avian BMR.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNab, Brian Keith

    2009-01-01

    The basal rate of metabolism (BMR) in 533 species of birds, when examined with ANCOVA, principally correlates with body mass, most of the residual variation correlating with food habits, climate, habitat, a volant or flightless condition, use or not of torpor, and a highland or lowland distribution. Avian BMR also correlates with migratory habits, if climate and a montane distribution is excluded from the analysis, and with an occurrence on small islands if a flightless condition and migration are excluded. Residual variation correlates with membership in avian orders and families principally because these groups are behaviorally and ecologically distinctive. However, the distinction between passerines and other birds remains a significant correlate of avian BMR, even after six ecological factors are included, with other birds having BMRs that averaged 74% of the passerine mean. This combination of factors accounts for 97.7% of the variation in avian BMR. Yet, migratory species that belong to Anseriformes, Charadriiformes, Pelecaniformes, and Procellariiformes and breed in temperate or polar environments have mass-independent basal rates equal to those found in passerines. In contrast, penguins belong to an order of polar, aquatic birds that have basal rates lower than passerines because their flightless condition depresses basal rate. Passerines dominate temperate, terrestrial environments and the four orders of aquatic birds dominate temperate and polar aquatic environments because their high BMRs facilitate reproduction and migration. The low BMRs of tropical passerines may reflect a sedentary lifestyle as much as a life in a tropical climate. Birds have BMRs that are 30-40% greater than mammals because of the commitment of birds to an expensive and expansive form of flight.

  5. Causal inference between bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors in a large-scale region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Yuqiong; Du, Qingyun; Wang, Qi; Yu, Huanyun; Liu, Jianfeng; Tian, Yu; Chang, Chunying; Lei, Jing

    2017-01-01

    The causation between bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors are generally obtained from field experiments at local scales at present, and lack sufficient evidence from large scales. However, inferring causation between bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors across large-scale regions is challenging. Because the conventional correlation-based approaches used for causation assessments across large-scale regions, at the expense of actual causation, can result in spurious insights. In this study, a general approach framework, Intervention calculus when the directed acyclic graph (DAG) is absent (IDA) combined with the backdoor criterion (BC), was introduced to identify causation between the bioavailability of heavy metals and the potential environmental factors across large-scale regions. We take the Pearl River Delta (PRD) in China as a case study. The causal structures and effects were identified based on the concentrations of heavy metals (Zn, As, Cu, Hg, Pb, Cr, Ni and Cd) in soil (0–20 cm depth) and vegetable (lettuce) and 40 environmental factors (soil properties, extractable heavy metals and weathering indices) in 94 samples across the PRD. Results show that the bioavailability of heavy metals (Cd, Zn, Cr, Ni and As) was causally influenced by soil properties and soil weathering factors, whereas no causal factor impacted the bioavailability of Cu, Hg and Pb. No latent factor was found between the bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors. The causation between the bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors at field experiments is consistent with that on a large scale. The IDA combined with the BC provides a powerful tool to identify causation between the bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors across large-scale regions. Causal inference in a large system with the dynamic changes has great implications for system-based risk management. - Causation between the

  6. A EU simulation platform for nuclear reactor safety: multi-scale and multi-physics calculations, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis (NURESIM project)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chauliac, Christian; Bestion, Dominique; Crouzet, Nicolas; Aragones, Jose-Maria; Cacuci, Dan Gabriel; Weiss, Frank-Peter; Zimmermann, Martin A.

    2010-01-01

    The NURESIM project, the numerical simulation platform, is developed in the frame of the NURISP European Collaborative Project (FP7), which includes 22 organizations from 14 European countries. NURESIM intends to be a reference platform providing high quality software tools, physical models, generic functions and assessment results. The NURESIM platform provides an accurate representation of the physical phenomena by promoting and incorporating the latest advances in core physics, two-phase thermal-hydraulics and fuel modelling. It includes multi-scale and multi-physics features, especially for coupling core physics and thermal-hydraulics models for reactor safety. Easy coupling of the different codes and solvers is provided through the use of a common data structure and generic functions (e.g., for interpolation between non-conforming meshes). More generally, the platform includes generic pre-processing, post-processing and supervision functions through the open-source SALOME software, in order to make the codes more user-friendly. The platform also provides the informatics environment for testing and comparing different codes. The contribution summarizes the achievements and ongoing developments of the simulation platform in core physics, thermal-hydraulics, multi-physics, uncertainties and code integration

  7. Personality Assessment Inventory scale characteristics and factor structure in the assessment of alcohol dependency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schinka, J A

    1995-02-01

    Individual scale characteristics and the inventory structure of the Personality Assessment Inventory (PAI; Morey, 1991) were examined by conducting internal consistency and factor analyses of item and scale score data from a large group (N = 301) of alcohol-dependent patients. Alpha coefficients, mean inter-item correlations, and corrected item-total scale correlations for the sample paralleled values reported by Morey for a large clinical sample. Minor differences in the scale factor structure of the inventory from Morey's clinical sample were found. Overall, the findings support the use of the PAI in the assessment of personality and psychopathology of alcohol-dependent patients.

  8. The Columbia Impairment Scale: Factor Analysis Using a Community Mental Health Sample

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singer, Jonathan B.; Eack, Shaun M.; Greeno, Catherine M.

    2011-01-01

    Objective: The objective of this study was to test the factor structure of the parent version of the Columbia Impairment Scale (CIS) in a sample of mothers who brought their children for community mental health (CMH) services (n = 280). Method: Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was used to test the fit of the hypothesized four-factor structure…

  9. A Confirmatory Factor Analysis of the Academic Motivation Scale with Black College Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cokley, Kevin

    2015-01-01

    The factor structure of the Academic Motivation Scale (AMS) was examined with a sample of 578 Black college students. A confirmatory factor analysis of the AMS was conducted. Results indicated that the hypothesized seven-factor model did not fit the data. Implications for future research with the AMS are discussed.

  10. Iranian Version of the Mini-Mental Adjustment to Cancer Scale: Factor Structure and Psychometric Properties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patoo, Mozhgan; Allahyari, Abbas Ali; Moradi, Ali Reza; Payandeh, Mehrdad

    2015-01-01

    Mental adjustment to cancer is known as a psychological, physical, and psychological health variable among cancer patients. The present study examines the factor structure and psychometric properties of the Mini-Mental Adjustment to Cancer scale (Mini-MAC) in a sample of Iranian adults who suffer from cancer. The sample consists of 320 cancer patients selected through non-random convenient sampling procedure from the hospitals and clinics in the cities of Kermanshah and Shiraz in Iran, using the Mini-MAC scale. One hundred of these patients also completed the Hospital Anxiety and Depression scale. Statistical methods used to analyze the data included confirmatory and exploratory factor analysis, discriminate validity, and Cronbach alpha coefficients for internal consistency. Factor analysis confirms five factors in the Mini-MAC. The values of fit indices are within the acceptable range. Significant correlations between the Mini-MAC and other measures also show that this scale has discriminate validity. Alpha coefficients for the subscales are Helplessness/Hopelessness,.94; Cognitive Avoidance.76; Anxious Preoccupation,.90; Fatalism,.77; Fighting Spirit.80; and total scale.84, respectively. The results confirm the five-factor structure of the Persian Mini-MAC scale and also prove that it is a reliable and valid scale. They show that this scale has sufficient power to measure different aspects of mental adjustment in patients with cancer.

  11. International training program in support of safety analysis. 3D S.UN.COP-scaling uncertainty and 3D thermal-hydraulics/neutron-kinetics coupled codes seminars

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petruzzi, Alessandro; D'Auria, Francesco; Bajs, Tomislav; Reventos, Francesc; Hassan, Yassin

    2007-01-01

    Thermal-hydraulic system computer codes are extensively used worldwide for analysis of nuclear facilities by utilities, regulatory bodies, nuclear power plant designers and vendors, nuclear fuel companies, research organizations, consulting companies, and technical support organizations. The computer code user represents a source of uncertainty that can influence the results of system code calculations. This influence is commonly known as the user effect' and stems from the limitations embedded in the codes as well as from the limited capability of the analysis to use the codes. Code user training and qualification is an effective means for reducing the variation of results caused by the application of the codes by different users. This paper describes a systematic approach to training code users who, upon completion of the training, should be able to perform calculations making the best possible use of the capabilities of best estimate codes. In other words, the program aims at contributing towards solving the problem of user effect. The 3D S.UN.COP (Scaling, Uncertainty and 3D COuPled code calculations) seminars have been organized as follow-up of the proposal to IAEA for the Permanent Training Course for System Code Users. Six seminars have been held at University of Pisa (2003, 2004), at The Pennsylvania State University (2004), at University of Zagreb (2005), at the School of Industrial Engineering of Barcelona (January-February 2006) and in Buenos Aires, Argentina (October 2006), being this last one requested by ARN (Autoridad Regulatoria Nuclear), NA-SA (Nucleoelectrica Argentina S.A) and CNEA (Comision Nacional de Energia Atomica). It was recognized that such courses represented both a source of continuing education for current code users and a mean for current code users to enter the formal training structure of a proposed 'permanent' stepwise approach to user training. The 3D S.UN.COP 2006 in Barcelona was successfully held with the attendance of 33

  12. International Training Program in Support of Safety Analysis: 3D S.UN.COP-Scaling, Uncertainty and 3D Thermal-Hydraulics/Neutron-Kinetics Coupled Codes Seminars

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petruzzi, Alessandro; D'Auria, Francesco; Bajs, Tomislav; Reventos, Francesc

    2006-01-01

    Thermal-hydraulic system computer codes are extensively used worldwide for analysis of nuclear facilities by utilities, regulatory bodies, nuclear power plant designers and vendors, nuclear fuel companies, research organizations, consulting companies, and technical support organizations. The computer code user represents a source of uncertainty that can influence the results of system code calculations. This influence is commonly known as the 'user effect' and stems from the limitations embedded in the codes as well as from the limited capability of the analysts to use the codes. Code user training and qualification is an effective means for reducing the variation of results caused by the application of the codes by different users. This paper describes a systematic approach to training code users who, upon completion of the training, should be able to perform calculations making the best possible use of the capabilities of best estimate codes. In other words, the program aims at contributing towards solving the problem of user effect. The 3D S.UN.COP (Scaling, Uncertainty and 3D COuPled code calculations) seminars have been organized as follow-up of the proposal to IAEA for the Permanent Training Course for System Code Users [1]. Five seminars have been held at University of Pisa (2003, 2004), at The Pennsylvania State University (2004), at University of Zagreb (2005) and at the School of Industrial Engineering of Barcelona (2006). It was recognized that such courses represented both a source of continuing education for current code users and a mean for current code users to enter the formal training structure of a proposed 'permanent' stepwise approach to user training. The 3D S.UN.COP 2006 was successfully held with the attendance of 33 participants coming from 18 countries and 28 different institutions (universities, vendors, national laboratories and regulatory bodies). More than 30 scientists (coming from 13 countries and 23 different institutions) were

  13. International Training Program: 3D S. Un. Cop - Scaling, Uncertainty and 3D Thermal-Hydraulics/Neutron-Kinetics Coupled Codes Seminar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pertuzzi, A.; D'Auria, F.; Bajs, T.; Reventos, F.

    2006-01-01

    Thermal-hydraulic system computer codes are extensively used worldwide for analysis of nuclear facilities by utilities, regulatory bodies, nuclear power plant designers and vendors, nuclear fuel companies, research organizations, consulting companies, and technical support organizations. The computer code user represents a source of uncertainty that can influence the results of system code calculations. This influence is commonly known as the 'user effect' and stems from the limitations embedded in the codes as well as from the limited capability of the analysts to use the codes. Code user training and qualification is an effective means for reducing the variation of results caused by the application of the codes by different users. This paper describes a systematic approach to training code users who, upon completion of the training, should be able to perform calculations making the best possible use of the capabilities of best estimate codes. In other words, the program aims at contributing towards solving the problem of user effect. The 3D S.UN.COP (Scaling, Uncertainty and 3D COuPled code calculations) seminars have been organized as follow-up of the proposal to IAEA for the Permanent Training Course for System Code Users (D'Auria, 1998). Four seminars have been held at University of Pisa (2003, 2004), at The Pennsylvania State University (2004) and at University of Zagreb (2005). It was recognized that such courses represented both a source of continuing education for current code users and a mean for current code users to enter the formal training structure of a proposed 'permanent' stepwise approach to user training. The 3D S.UN.COP 2005 was successfully held with the participation of 19 persons coming from 9 countries and 14 different institutions (universities, vendors, national laboratories and regulatory bodies). More than 15 scientists were involved in the organization of the seminar, presenting theoretical aspects of the proposed methodologies and

  14. Disentangling Wording and Substantive Factors in the Spiritual Well-Being Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Aja L; Johnson, Wendy; Gow, Alan J; Deary, Ian J

    2015-05-01

    We evaluated the extent to which the Spiritual Well-Being Scale (SWBS) may help to meet the need for multidimensional, psychometrically sophisticated measures of spiritual and religious traits. Although the various forms of validity of the scale have, for the most part, been supported by psychometric studies, conflicting evidence surrounding its dimensionality has called into question its structural validity. Specifically, numerous authors have suggested that a more appropriate factor structure for the SWBS includes further substantive factors in addition to the 2 factors that the scale was originally intended to measure. In the current study, we attempted to resolve these debates using a combination of exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis based investigations in the Lothian Birth Cohort, 1921 study. Our analyses suggested that the additional factors suggested in previous studies may not have reflected substantive constructs; but rather, common variance due to methodological factors.

  15. Probabilistic Physics of Failure-based framework for fatigue life prediction of aircraft gas turbine discs under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, Shun-Peng; Huang, Hong-Zhong; Peng, Weiwen; Wang, Hai-Kun; Mahadevan, Sankaran

    2016-01-01

    A probabilistic Physics of Failure-based framework for fatigue life prediction of aircraft gas turbine discs operating under uncertainty is developed. The framework incorporates the overall uncertainties appearing in a structural integrity assessment. A comprehensive uncertainty quantification (UQ) procedure is presented to quantify multiple types of uncertainty using multiplicative and additive UQ methods. In addition, the factors that contribute the most to the resulting output uncertainty are investigated and identified for uncertainty reduction in decision-making. A high prediction accuracy of the proposed framework is validated through a comparison of model predictions to the experimental results of GH4133 superalloy and full-scale tests of aero engine high-pressure turbine discs. - Highlights: • A probabilistic PoF-based framework for fatigue life prediction is proposed. • A comprehensive procedure forquantifyingmultiple types of uncertaintyis presented. • The factors that contribute most to the resulting output uncertainty are identified. • The proposed frameworkdemonstrates high prediction accuracybyfull-scale tests.

  16. Factor structure, reliability, and validity of the Levenson's Locus of Control Scale in Iranian infertile people.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maroufizadeh, Saman; Omani Samani, Reza; Amini, Payam; Navid, Behnaz

    2016-09-01

    This study examined psychometric properties of the Levenson's Locus of Control Scale among Iranian infertile patients. In all, 312 infertile patients completed the Levenson's Locus of Control Scale and Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale. The confirmatory factor analysis indicated that the original three-factor model of Levenson's Locus of Control Scale was adequate ( χ 2 / df = 2.139; goodness-of-fit index = 0.88; root mean square error of approximation = 0.061; and standardized root mean square residual = 0.076). The Cronbach's alpha of the subscales ranged from 0.56 to 0.67. The Levenson's Locus of Control Scale subscales significantly correlated with anxiety and depression, showing an acceptable convergent validity. In conclusion, the Levenson's Locus of Control Scale has adequate reliability and validity and can be used to measure locus of control orientation in Iranian infertile patients.

  17. A confirmatory factor analysis of the Utrecht Work Engagement Scale for Students in a Chinese sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Lina; Jin, Yi

    2017-02-01

    Educational institutions play an important role in encouraging students' engagement with course work. Educators are finding instruments to measure students' engagement in order to develop strategies to improve it. Little is known about the factor structure of the Utrecht Work Engagement Scale for Students among Chinese nursing students. The aim of this research was to examine the factor structure of the Utrecht Work Engagement Scale for Students via confirmatory factor analysis. The study used a cross-sectional design. A sample of 480 students from a nursing school in one Chinese university completed the Utrecht Work Engagement Scale for Students. Factor analysis was used to analyze the resulting data. The overall results of internal consistency reliability and confirmatory factor analysis provided evidence supporting the reliability and three-factor structure of the Utrecht Work Engagement Scale for Students. The total internal consistency reliability coefficients were 0.91. Model comparison tests indicated that an oblique factors model that permitted correlations between pairs of error terms fitted the data better than other first-order models. In addition, due to the three strongly intercorrelated factors, a second-order model was found to fit the data well, providing support for the factorial structure of the Utrecht Work Engagement Scale for Students. The findings of confirmatory factor analysis provided evidence supporting the reliability and three-factor structure of the Utrecht Work Engagement Scale for Students when evaluated with a Chinese nursing student sample in this study. Thus, it is appropriate to use The Utrecht Work Engagement Scale for Students in for assessing the engagement among Chinese nursing students. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Causal inference between bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors in a large-scale region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yuqiong; Du, Qingyun; Wang, Qi; Yu, Huanyun; Liu, Jianfeng; Tian, Yu; Chang, Chunying; Lei, Jing

    2017-07-01

    The causation between bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors are generally obtained from field experiments at local scales at present, and lack sufficient evidence from large scales. However, inferring causation between bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors across large-scale regions is challenging. Because the conventional correlation-based approaches used for causation assessments across large-scale regions, at the expense of actual causation, can result in spurious insights. In this study, a general approach framework, Intervention calculus when the directed acyclic graph (DAG) is absent (IDA) combined with the backdoor criterion (BC), was introduced to identify causation between the bioavailability of heavy metals and the potential environmental factors across large-scale regions. We take the Pearl River Delta (PRD) in China as a case study. The causal structures and effects were identified based on the concentrations of heavy metals (Zn, As, Cu, Hg, Pb, Cr, Ni and Cd) in soil (0-20 cm depth) and vegetable (lettuce) and 40 environmental factors (soil properties, extractable heavy metals and weathering indices) in 94 samples across the PRD. Results show that the bioavailability of heavy metals (Cd, Zn, Cr, Ni and As) was causally influenced by soil properties and soil weathering factors, whereas no causal factor impacted the bioavailability of Cu, Hg and Pb. No latent factor was found between the bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors. The causation between the bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors at field experiments is consistent with that on a large scale. The IDA combined with the BC provides a powerful tool to identify causation between the bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors across large-scale regions. Causal inference in a large system with the dynamic changes has great implications for system-based risk management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All

  19. Examining the factor structure of MUIS-C scale among baby boomers with hepatitis C.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reinoso, Humberto; Türegün, Mehmet

    2016-11-01

    Baby boomers account for two out of every three cases of hepatitis C infection in the U.S. To conduct an exploratory factor analysis directed at supporting the use of the MUIS-C as a reliable instrument in measuring illness uncertainty among baby boomers with hepatitis C. The steps of conducting a typical principal component analysis (PCA) with an oblique rotation were used on a sample of 146 participants, the sampling adequacy of items was examined via the Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO) measure, and the Bartlett's sphericity test was used for appropriateness of conducting a factor analysis. A two-factor structure was obtained by using Horn's parallel analysis method. The two factors explained a cumulative total of 45.8% of the variance. The results of the analyses indicated that the MUIS-C was a valid and reliable instrument and potentially suitable for use in baby boomer population diagnosed with hepatitis C. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  20. Macroecological factors explain large-scale spatial population patterns of ancient agriculturalists

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Xu, C.; Chen, B.; Abades, S.; Reino, L.; Teng, S.; Ljungqvist, F.C.; Huang, Z.Y.X.; Liu, X.

    2015-01-01

    Aim: It has been well demonstrated that the large-scale distribution patterns of numerous species are driven by similar macroecological factors. However, understanding of this topic remains limited when applied to our own species. Here we take a large-scale look at ancient agriculturalist

  1. Agri-Environmental Resource Management by Large-Scale Collective Action: Determining KEY Success Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uetake, Tetsuya

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: Large-scale collective action is necessary when managing agricultural natural resources such as biodiversity and water quality. This paper determines the key factors to the success of such action. Design/Methodology/Approach: This paper analyses four large-scale collective actions used to manage agri-environmental resources in Canada and…

  2. Determination of vibration amplitudes and neutron-mechanical scale factors in the PWR nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kostic, Lj.; Heidemann, P.; Runkel, J.

    1997-01-01

    Displacements of vibrating reactor components which can not be measured by other means during normal reactor operation can be determined through the scale factors from the neutron spectra of signals measured by the standard in-core neutron instrumentation. Neutron-mechanical scale factors are determined for the vibrations of fuel assemblies and reactor pressure vessel/core barrel system using the signals of in-core neutron detectors and accelerometers. (author)

  3. The Euler anomaly and scale factors in Liouville/Toda CFTs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Balasubramanian, Aswin [Theory Group, Department of Physics, University of Texas at Austin,2515 Speedway Stop C1608, Austin, TX 78712-1197 (United States)

    2014-04-22

    The role played by the Euler anomaly in the dictionary relating sphere partition functions of four dimensional theories of class S and two dimensional non rational CFTs is clarified. On the two dimensional side, this involves a careful treatment of scale factors in Liouville/Toda correlators. Using ideas from tinkertoy constructions for Gaiotto duality, a framework is proposed for evaluating these scale factors. The representation theory of Weyl groups plays a critical role in this framework.

  4. Teaching Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duerdoth, Ian

    2009-01-01

    The subject of uncertainties (sometimes called errors) is traditionally taught (to first-year science undergraduates) towards the end of a course on statistics that defines probability as the limit of many trials, and discusses probability distribution functions and the Gaussian distribution. We show how to introduce students to the concepts of…

  5. Calibration uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heydorn, Kaj; Anglov, Thomas

    2002-01-01

    Methods recommended by the International Standardization Organisation and Eurachem are not satisfactory for the correct estimation of calibration uncertainty. A novel approach is introduced and tested on actual calibration data for the determination of Pb by ICP-AES. The improved calibration...

  6. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Cacuci, Dan G; Navon, Ionel Michael

    2005-01-01

    As computer-assisted modeling and analysis of physical processes have continued to grow and diversify, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses have become indispensable scientific tools. Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis. Volume I: Theory focused on the mathematical underpinnings of two important methods for such analyses: the Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure and the Global Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure. This volume concentrates on the practical aspects of performing these analyses for large-scale systems. The applications addressed include two-phase flow problems, a radiative c

  7. A Second-Order Confirmatory Factor Analysis of the Moral Distress Scale-Revised for Nurses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharif Nia, Hamid; Shafipour, Vida; Allen, Kelly-Ann; Heidari, Mohammad Reza; Yazdani-Charati, Jamshid; Zareiyan, Armin

    2017-01-01

    Moral distress is a growing problem for healthcare professionals that may lead to dissatisfaction, resignation, or occupational burnout if left unattended, and nurses experience different levels of this phenomenon. This study aims to investigate the factor structure of the Persian version of the Moral Distress Scale-Revised in intensive care and general nurses. This methodological research was conducted with 771 nurses from eight hospitals in the Mazandaran Province of Iran in 2017. Participants completed the Moral Distress Scale-Revised, data collected, and factor structure assessed using the construct, convergent, and divergent validity methods. The reliability of the scale was assessed using internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha, Theta, and McDonald's omega coefficients) and construct reliability. Ethical considerations: This study was approved by the Ethics Committee of Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences. The exploratory factor analysis ( N = 380) showed that the Moral Distress Scale-Revised has five factors: lack of professional competence at work, ignoring ethical issues and patient conditions, futile care, carrying out the physician's orders without question and unsafe care, and providing care under personal and organizational pressures, which explained 56.62% of the overall variance. The confirmatory factor analysis ( N = 391) supported the five-factor solution and the second-order latent factor model. The first-order model did not show a favorable convergent and divergent validity. Ultimately, the Moral Distress Scale-Revised was found to have a favorable internal consistency and construct reliability. The Moral Distress Scale-Revised was found to be a multidimensional construct. The data obtained confirmed the hypothesis of the factor structure model with a latent second-order variable. Since the convergent and divergent validity of the scale were not confirmed in this study, further assessment is necessary in future studies.

  8. Self-Compassion Scale: IRT Psychometric Analysis, Validation, and Factor Structure – Slovak Translation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Júlia Halamová

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The present study verifies the psychometric properties of the Slovak version of the Self-Compassion Scale through item response theory, factor-analysis, validity analyses and norm development. The surveyed sample consisted of 1,181 participants (34% men and 66% women with a mean age of 30.30 years (SD = 12.40. Two general factors (Self-compassionate responding and Self-uncompassionate responding were identified, whereas there was no support for a single general factor of the scale and six subscales. The results of the factor analysis were supported by an independent sample of 676 participants. Therefore, the use of total score for the whole scale would be inappropriate. In Slovak language the Self-Compassion Scale should be used in the form of two general subscales (Self-compassionate responding and Self-uncompassionate responding. In line with our theoretical assumptions, we obtained relatively high Spearman’s correlation coefficients between the Self-Compassion Scale and related external variables, demonstrating construct validity for the scale. To sum up, the Slovak translation of The Self-Compassion Scale is a reliable and valid instrument that measures Self-compassionate responding and Self-uncompassionate responding.

  9. Factors associated with metabolic syndrome and related medical costs by the scale of enterprise in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Hyung-Sik; Lee, Kang-Sook; Yim, Eun-Shil; Lee, Seon-Young; Cho, Hyun-Young; Lee, Bin Na; Park, Jee Young

    2013-10-21

    The purpose of this study was to identify the risk factors of metabolic syndrome (MS) and to analyze the relationship between the risk factors of MS and medical cost of major diseases related to MS in Korean workers, according to the scale of the enterprise. Data was obtained from annual physical examinations, health insurance qualification and premiums, and health insurance benefits of 4,094,217 male and female workers who underwent medical examinations provided by the National Health Insurance Corporation in 2009. Logistic regression analyses were used to the identify risk factors of MS and multiple regression was used to find factors associated with medical expenditures due to major diseases related to MS. The study found that low-income workers were more likely to work in small-scale enterprises. The prevalence rate of MS in males and females, respectively, was 17.2% and 9.4% in small-scale enterprises, 15.9% and 8.9% in medium-scale enterprises, and 15.9% and 5.5% in large-scale enterprises. The risks of MS increased with age, lower income status, and smoking in small-scale enterprise workers. The medical costs increased in workers with old age and past smoking history. There was also a gender difference in the pattern of medical expenditures related to MS. Health promotion programs to manage metabolic syndrome should be developed to focus on workers who smoke, drink, and do little exercise in small scale enterprises.

  10. Zooming in and out: Scale dependence of extrinsic and intrinsic factors affecting salt marsh erosion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Heng; van der Wal, Daphne; Li, Xiangyu; van Belzen, Jim; Herman, Peter M. J.; Hu, Zhan; Ge, Zhenming; Zhang, Liquan; Bouma, Tjeerd J.

    2017-07-01

    Salt marshes are valuable ecosystems that provide important ecosystem services. Given the global scale of marsh loss due to climate change and coastal squeeze, there is a pressing need to identify the critical extrinsic (wind exposure and foreshore morphology) and intrinsic factors (soil and vegetation properties) affecting the erosion of salt marsh edges. In this study, we quantified rates of cliff lateral retreat (i.e., the eroding edge of a salt marsh plateau) using a time series of aerial photographs taken over four salt marsh sites in the Westerschelde estuary, the Netherlands. In addition, we experimentally quantified the erodibility of sediment cores collected from the marsh edge of these four marshes using wave tanks. Our results revealed the following: (i) at the large scale, wind exposure and the presence of pioneer vegetation in front of the cliff were the key factors governing cliff retreat rates; (ii) at the intermediate scale, foreshore morphology was partially related to cliff retreat; (iii) at the local scale, the erodibility of the sediment itself at the marsh edge played a large role in determining the cliff retreat rate; and (iv) at the mesocosm scale, cliff erodibility was determined by soil properties and belowground root biomass. Thus, both extrinsic and intrinsic factors determined the fate of the salt marsh but at different scales. Our study highlights the importance of understanding the scale dependence of the factors driving the evolution of salt marsh landscapes.

  11. A Confirmatory Factor Analysis on the Attitude Scale of Constructivist Approach for Science Teachers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Evrekli

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Underlining the importance of teachers for the constructivist approach, the present study attempts to develop “Attitude Scale of Construc¬tivist Approach for Science Teachers (ASCAST”. The pre-applications of the scale were administered to a total of 210 science teachers; however, the data obtained from 5 teachers were excluded from the analysis. As a result of the analysis of the data obtained from the pre-applications, it was found that the scale could have a single factor structure, which was tested using the confir¬matory factor analysis. As a result of the initial confirmatory factor analysis, the values of fit were examined and found to be low. Subsequently, by exam¬ining the modification indices, error covariance was added between items 23 and 24 and the model was tested once again. The added error covariance led to a significant improvement in the model, producing values of fit suitable for limit values. Thus, it was concluded that the scale could be employed with a single factor. The explained variance value for the scale developed with a sin¬gle factor structure was calculated to be 50.43% and its reliability was found to be .93. The results obtained suggest that the scale possesses reliable-valid characteristics and could be used in further studies.

  12. Factor Structure of the Acute Stress Disorder Scale in a Sample of Hurricane Katrina Evacuees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edmondson, Donald; Mills, Mary Alice; Park, Crystal L.

    2010-01-01

    Acute stress disorder (ASD) is a poorly understood and controversial diagnosis (A. G. Harvey & R. A. Bryant, 2002). The present study used confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) to test the factor structure of the most widely used self-report measure of ASD, the Acute Stress Disorder Scale (R. A. Bryant, M. L. Moulds, & R. M. Guthrie, 2000),…

  13. Factor Structure and Psychometric Properties of the Injection Phobia Scale-Anxiety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olatunji, Bunmi O.; Sawchuk, Craig N.; Moretz, Melanie W.; David, Bieke; Armstrong, Thomas; Ciesielski, Bethany G.

    2010-01-01

    The present investigation examined the factor structure and psychometric properties of the Injection Phobia Scale-Anxiety (IPS-Anx). Principal components analysis of IPS-Anx items in Study 1 (n = 498) revealed a 2-factor structure consisting of Distal Fear and Contact Fear. However, CFA results in Study 2 (n = 567) suggest that a 1-factor…

  14. Structure of Rosenberg’s Self-Esteem Scale: Three-factor solution

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Blatný, Marek; Urbánek, Tomáš; Osecká, Terezie

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 48, č. 4 (2006), s. 371-378 ISSN 0039-3320 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70250504 Keywords : Rosenberg Self - Esteem Scale * confirmatory factor analysis * adolescents Subject RIV: AN - Psychology Impact factor: 0.410, year: 2006

  15. Validation of the Social Appearance Anxiety Scale: Factor, Convergent, and Divergent Validity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levinson, Cheri A.; Rodebaugh, Thomas L.

    2011-01-01

    The Social Appearance Anxiety Scale (SAAS) was created to assess fear of overall appearance evaluation. Initial psychometric work indicated that the measure had a single-factor structure and exhibited excellent internal consistency, test-retest reliability, and convergent validity. In the current study, the authors further examined the factor,…

  16. Confirming the Three-Factor Structure of the Disgust Scale-Revised in Eight Countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Olatunji, Bunmi O.; Moretz, Melanie W.; Mckay, Dean; Bjorklund, Fredrik; de Jong, Peter J.; Haidt, Jonathan; Hursti, Timo J.; Imada, Sumio; Koller, Silvia; Mancini, Francesco; Page, Andrew C.; Schienle, Anne

    The current study evaluates the factor structure of the Disgust Scale-Revised (DS-R) in eight countries: Australia, Brazil, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, and the United States (N = 2,606). Confirmatory factor analysis is used to compare two different models of the DS-R and to

  17. Comparison of cadmium and chromium bioconcentration factors between scaled and scale less fish species: common carp and sutchi (striped catfish

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sideh Zainab Abedi

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: Water-borne, indissoluble heavy metals are bioaccumulated in fish (human food source. In this research, chromium (Cr and cadmium (Cd bioconcentration factors (BCFs in the skin, gills, scales, livers and muscles of two widely-consumed fish species, scaled common carp Cyprinus carpio and scaleless catfish Pangasius hypophthalmus were compared. Material and Methods: Lethal concentrations of Cd and Cr (64.89 & 7.46, and 84.8 & 17.05 mg/L for the catfish and carp, respectively were determined during 96 hrs (96 h LC50, and the fishes were exposed for 15 days. Then the tissue samples were chemically digested and the contents of Cd and Cr were determined using atomic absorption. Results: Total contents of Cr and Cd in the catfish's tissues were 2286.11 & 360.73, and those of Cr & Cd in carp were 734.71 & 725.67 μg/g.dw (excluding the scales, respectively. Metal concentrations in the water residues (day 15 revealed lower Cr and Cd (0.059 & 0.0036 mg/L in the catfish than those in the carp media (0.1 & 0.0412 mg/L, respectively. In common carp, BCF of Cd was as liver > skin > gills > muscle > scales, and those in the catfish marked as liver>muscle >gills >skin. The BCF of Cr in common carp ranked as gills>liver>skin>scales>muscle, and the catfish showing a BCF pattern of Cr as liver> muscle>skin>gills. Conclusion: This study signifies that small amounts of cadmium and chromium with high BCFs especially in the muscles of scale less fish (catfish threat consumers’ health.

  18. GENDER DIFFERENTIALS IN FACTORS AFFECTING PERFORMANCE OF SMALL-SCALE ENTERPRISES IN LAGOS STATE – NIGERIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yusuff Olabisi Sherifat

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available There is a lack of empirical data segregation on factors affecting gender as the variable of interest. However, previous research had indicated several factors that affect business performances among small-scale enterprise owners. Using feminist theory and a descriptive survey research design, data were collected from fifty (50 small-scale enterprise owners that were purposively chosen across the study area. The findings show that the factors that were significant for female were significantly different from male. For female small scale enterprise owners, marital status (64% Age of Children (68%, Role Model/ advisors (58% were significant factors that affect their business performance. For male small-scale enterprise owners, Friends (70%, a lack of Government support (80%, inability to display innovativeness (78% and Risk-Taking (84% were significant for male. Lack of availability of capital and finances were significant for the two. Other factors that affect performance include friends, inadequate training and business location. Adequate knowledge of factors that affect gender enterprise performance will go a long way in alleviating these problems. Small-scale enterprises should be supported for poverty alleviation, especially among women and for the nation’s economic development

  19. Testing the Scale Dependence of the Scale Factor $\\sigma_{eff}$ in Double Dijet Production at the LHC

    CERN Document Server

    Domdey, Svend; Wiedemann, Urs Achim

    2010-01-01

    The scale factor σ eff is the effective cross section used to characterize the measured rate of inclusive double dijet production in high energy hadron collisions. It is sensitive to the two-parton distributions in the hadronic projectile. In principle, the scale factor depends on the center of mass energy and on the minimal transverse energy of the jets contributing to the double dijet cross section. Here, we point out that proton-proton collisions at the LHC will provide for the first time experimental access to these scale dependences in a logarithmically wide, nominally perturbative kinematic range of minimal transverse energy between 10 GeV and 100 GeV. This constrains the dependence of two-parton distribution functions on parton momentum fractions and parton localization in impact parameter space. Novel information is to be expected about the transverse growth of hadronic distribution functions in the range of semi-hard Bjorken x (0.001 < x < 0.1) and high resolution Q^2. We discuss to what exten...

  20. Demand Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Daniel Xuyen

    This paper presents a model of trade that explains why firms wait to export and why many exporters fail. Firms face uncertain demands that are only realized after the firm enters the destination. The model retools the timing of uncertainty resolution found in productivity heterogeneity models....... This retooling addresses several shortcomings. First, the imperfect correlation of demands reconciles the sales variation observed in and across destinations. Second, since demands for the firm's output are correlated across destinations, a firm can use previously realized demands to forecast unknown demands...... in untested destinations. The option to forecast demands causes firms to delay exporting in order to gather more information about foreign demand. Third, since uncertainty is resolved after entry, many firms enter a destination and then exit after learning that they cannot profit. This prediction reconciles...

  1. Factor analysis of Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale-Revised in developmentally disabled persons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Nuovo, Santo F; Buono, Serafino

    2006-12-01

    The results of previous studies on the factorial structure of Wechsler Intelligence Scales are somewhat inconsistent across normal and pathological samples. To study specific clinical groups, such as developmentally disabled persons, it is useful to examine the factor structure in appropriate samples. A factor analysis was carried out using the principal component method and the Varimax orthogonal rotation on the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale (WAIS-R) in a sample of 203 developmentally disabled persons, with a mean age of 25 years 4 months. Developmental disability ranged from mild to moderate. Partially contrasting with previous studies on normal samples, results found a two-factor solution. Wechsler's traditional Verbal and Performance scales seems to be more appropriate for this sample than the alternative three-factor solution.

  2. Decommissioning funding: ethics, implementation, uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    This status report on Decommissioning Funding: Ethics, Implementation, Uncertainties also draws on the experience of the NEA Working Party on Decommissioning and Dismantling (WPDD). The report offers, in a concise form, an overview of relevant considerations on decommissioning funding mechanisms with regard to ethics, implementation and uncertainties. Underlying ethical principles found in international agreements are identified, and factors influencing the accumulation and management of funds for decommissioning nuclear facilities are discussed together with the main sources of uncertainties of funding systems. (authors)

  3. The Uncertainty of Measurement Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ambrus, A. [Hungarian Food Safety Office, Budapest (Hungary)

    2009-07-15

    Factors affecting the uncertainty of measurement are explained, basic statistical formulae given, and the theoretical concept explained in the context of pesticide formulation analysis. Practical guidance is provided on how to determine individual uncertainty components within an analytical procedure. An extended and comprehensive table containing the relevant mathematical/statistical expressions elucidates the relevant underlying principles. Appendix I provides a practical elaborated example on measurement uncertainty estimation, above all utilizing experimental repeatability and reproducibility laboratory data. (author)

  4. Geological-structural models used in SR 97. Uncertainty analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saksa, P.; Nummela, J. [FINTACT Oy (Finland)

    1998-10-01

    The uncertainty of geological-structural models was studied for the three sites in SR 97, called Aberg, Beberg and Ceberg. The evaluation covered both regional and site scale models, the emphasis being placed on fracture zones in the site scale. Uncertainty is a natural feature of all geoscientific investigations. It originates from measurements (errors in data, sampling limitations, scale variation) and conceptualisation (structural geometries and properties, ambiguous geometric or parametric solutions) to name the major ones. The structures of A-, B- and Ceberg are fracture zones of varying types. No major differences in the conceptualisation between the sites were noted. One source of uncertainty in the site models is the non-existence of fracture and zone information in the scale from 10 to 300 - 1000 m. At Aberg the development of the regional model has been performed very thoroughly. At the site scale one major source of uncertainty is that a clear definition of the target area is missing. Structures encountered in the boreholes are well explained and an interdisciplinary approach in interpretation have taken place. Beberg and Ceberg regional models contain relatively large uncertainties due to the investigation methodology and experience available at that time. In site scale six additional structures were proposed both to Beberg and Ceberg to variant analysis of these sites. Both sites include uncertainty in the form of many non-interpreted fractured sections along the boreholes. Statistical analysis gives high occurrences of structures for all three sites: typically 20 - 30 structures/km{sup 3}. Aberg has highest structural frequency, Beberg comes next and Ceberg has the lowest. The borehole configuration, orientations and surveying goals were inspected to find whether preferences or factors causing bias were present. Data from Aberg supports the conclusion that Aespoe sub volume would be an anomalously fractured, tectonised unit of its own. This means that

  5. Geological-structural models used in SR 97. Uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saksa, P.; Nummela, J.

    1998-10-01

    The uncertainty of geological-structural models was studied for the three sites in SR 97, called Aberg, Beberg and Ceberg. The evaluation covered both regional and site scale models, the emphasis being placed on fracture zones in the site scale. Uncertainty is a natural feature of all geoscientific investigations. It originates from measurements (errors in data, sampling limitations, scale variation) and conceptualisation (structural geometries and properties, ambiguous geometric or parametric solutions) to name the major ones. The structures of A-, B- and Ceberg are fracture zones of varying types. No major differences in the conceptualisation between the sites were noted. One source of uncertainty in the site models is the non-existence of fracture and zone information in the scale from 10 to 300 - 1000 m. At Aberg the development of the regional model has been performed very thoroughly. At the site scale one major source of uncertainty is that a clear definition of the target area is missing. Structures encountered in the boreholes are well explained and an interdisciplinary approach in interpretation have taken place. Beberg and Ceberg regional models contain relatively large uncertainties due to the investigation methodology and experience available at that time. In site scale six additional structures were proposed both to Beberg and Ceberg to variant analysis of these sites. Both sites include uncertainty in the form of many non-interpreted fractured sections along the boreholes. Statistical analysis gives high occurrences of structures for all three sites: typically 20 - 30 structures/km 3 . Aberg has highest structural frequency, Beberg comes next and Ceberg has the lowest. The borehole configuration, orientations and surveying goals were inspected to find whether preferences or factors causing bias were present. Data from Aberg supports the conclusion that Aespoe sub volume would be an anomalously fractured, tectonised unit of its own. This means that the

  6. Beyond factor analysis: Multidimensionality and the Parkinson's Disease Sleep Scale-Revised.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria E Pushpanathan

    Full Text Available Many studies have sought to describe the relationship between sleep disturbance and cognition in Parkinson's disease (PD. The Parkinson's Disease Sleep Scale (PDSS and its variants (the Parkinson's disease Sleep Scale-Revised; PDSS-R, and the Parkinson's Disease Sleep Scale-2; PDSS-2 quantify a range of symptoms impacting sleep in only 15 items. However, data from these scales may be problematic as included items have considerable conceptual breadth, and there may be overlap in the constructs assessed. Multidimensional measurement models, accounting for the tendency for items to measure multiple constructs, may be useful more accurately to model variance than traditional confirmatory factor analysis. In the present study, we tested the hypothesis that a multidimensional model (a bifactor model is more appropriate than traditional factor analysis for data generated by these types of scales, using data collected using the PDSS-R as an exemplar. 166 participants diagnosed with idiopathic PD participated in this study. Using PDSS-R data, we compared three models: a unidimensional model; a 3-factor model consisting of sub-factors measuring insomnia, motor symptoms and obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA and REM sleep behaviour disorder (RBD symptoms; and, a confirmatory bifactor model with both a general factor and the same three sub-factors. Only the confirmatory bifactor model achieved satisfactory model fit, suggesting that PDSS-R data are multidimensional. There were differential associations between factor scores and patient characteristics, suggesting that some PDSS-R items, but not others, are influenced by mood and personality in addition to sleep symptoms. Multidimensional measurement models may also be a helpful tool in the PDSS and the PDSS-2 scales and may improve the sensitivity of these instruments.

  7. Uncertainty, joint uncertainty, and the quantum uncertainty principle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narasimhachar, Varun; Poostindouz, Alireza; Gour, Gilad

    2016-01-01

    Historically, the element of uncertainty in quantum mechanics has been expressed through mathematical identities called uncertainty relations, a great many of which continue to be discovered. These relations use diverse measures to quantify uncertainty (and joint uncertainty). In this paper we use operational information-theoretic principles to identify the common essence of all such measures, thereby defining measure-independent notions of uncertainty and joint uncertainty. We find that most existing entropic uncertainty relations use measures of joint uncertainty that yield themselves to a small class of operational interpretations. Our notion relaxes this restriction, revealing previously unexplored joint uncertainty measures. To illustrate the utility of our formalism, we derive an uncertainty relation based on one such new measure. We also use our formalism to gain insight into the conditions under which measure-independent uncertainty relations can be found. (paper)

  8. Confirmatory Factor Analysis of the Delirium Rating Scale Revised-98 (DRS-R98).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thurber, Steven; Kishi, Yasuhiro; Trzepacz, Paula T; Franco, Jose G; Meagher, David J; Lee, Yanghyun; Kim, Jeong-Lan; Furlanetto, Leticia M; Negreiros, Daniel; Huang, Ming-Chyi; Chen, Chun-Hsin; Kean, Jacob; Leonard, Maeve

    2015-01-01

    Principal components analysis applied to the Delirium Rating Scale-Revised-98 contributes to understanding the delirium construct. Using a multisite pooled international delirium database, the authors applied confirmatory factor analysis to Delirium Rating Scale-Revised-98 scores from 859 adult patients evaluated by delirium experts (delirium, N=516; nondelirium, N=343). Confirmatory factor analysis found all diagnostic features and core symptoms (cognitive, language, thought process, sleep-wake cycle, motor retardation), except motor agitation, loaded onto factor 1. Motor agitation loaded onto factor 2 with noncore symptoms (delusions, affective lability, and perceptual disturbances). Factor 1 loading supports delirium as a single construct, but when accompanied by psychosis, motor agitation's role may not be solely as a circadian activity indicator.

  9. A Global Analysis of the Strange Vector and Axial Form Factors of the Nucleon and their Uncertainties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schaub, John [New Mexico State Univ., Las Cruces, NM (United States); Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (TJNAF), Newport News, VA (United States)

    2010-07-01

    We studied the strange contributions to the elastic vector and axial form factors of the nucleon using all available elastic electroweak scattering data. Specifically, we combine elastic nu-p and nubar-p scattering cross-section data from the Brookhaven E734 experiment with elastic ep and quasi-elastic ed and e-4He scattering parity-violating asymmetry data from the SAMPLE, HAPPEx, PVA4 and G0 experiments. We not only determined these form factors at individual values of momentum-transfer (Q2), as other groups have done recently, but also fit the Q2-dependence of these form factors using simple functional forms. I present an overview of the G0 backward-angle experiment as well as the results of these fits using existing data, along with some expectations of how we can improve our knowledge of these form factors if the MicroBooNE collaboration completes their experiment.

  10. Factor analysis of the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale in Parkinson's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broen, M P G; Moonen, A J H; Kuijf, M L; Dujardin, K; Marsh, L; Richard, I H; Starkstein, S E; Martinez-Martin, P; Leentjens, A F G

    2015-02-01

    Several studies have validated the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HAMD) in patients with Parkinson's disease (PD), and reported adequate reliability and construct validity. However, the factorial validity of the HAMD has not yet been investigated. The aim of our analysis was to explore the factor structure of the HAMD in a large sample of PD patients. A principal component analysis of the 17-item HAMD was performed on data of 341 PD patients, available from a previous cross sectional study on anxiety. An eigenvalue ≥1 was used to determine the number of factors. Factor loadings ≥0.4 in combination with oblique rotations were used to identify which variables made up the factors. Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin measure (KMO), Cronbach's alpha, Bartlett's test, communality, percentage of non-redundant residuals and the component correlation matrix were computed to assess factor validity. KMO verified the sample's adequacy for factor analysis and Cronbach's alpha indicated a good internal consistency of the total scale. Six factors had eigenvalues ≥1 and together explained 59.19% of the variance. The number of items per factor varied from 1 to 6. Inter-item correlations within each component were low. There was a high percentage of non-redundant residuals and low communality. This analysis demonstrates that the factorial validity of the HAMD in PD is unsatisfactory. This implies that the scale is not appropriate for studying specific symptom domains of depression based on factorial structure in a PD population. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. The factor structure of the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale in individuals with traumatic brain injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schönberger, Michael; Ponsford, Jennie

    2010-10-30

    There is a lack of validated scales for screening for anxiety and depression in individuals with traumatic brain injury (TBI). The purpose of this study was to examine the factor structure of the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) in individuals with TBI. A total of 294 individuals with TBI (72.1% male; mean age 37.1 years, S.D. 17.5, median post-traumatic amnesia (PTA) duration 17 days) completed the HADS 1 year post-injury. A series of confirmatory factor analyses was conducted to examine the fit of a one-, two- and three-factor solution, with and without controlling for item wording effects (Multi-Trait Multi-Method approach). The one-, two- or three-factor model fit the data only when controlling for negative item wording. The results are in support of the validity of the original anxiety and depression subscales of the HADS and demonstrate the importance of evaluating item wording effects when examining the factor structure of a questionnaire. The results would also justify the use of the HADS as a single scale of emotional distress. However, even though the three-factor solution fit the data, alternative scales should be used if the purpose of the assessment is to measure stress symptoms separately from anxiety and depression. Copyright © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Scale-Free Relationships between Social and Landscape Factors in Urban Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunzhu Wei

    2017-01-01

    anthropogenic and natural factors. Moreover, this scale-free behavior of landscape–social relationships challenges the traditional modifiable area unit problem, and provides mechanistic insight into the conflicts and compatibilities between human activities and human-induced land use change.

  13. Failure probability under parameter uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerrard, R; Tsanakas, A

    2011-05-01

    In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location-scale families (including the log-normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  14. Photometric Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Xiao-Duan; Li, Jian-Yang; Clark, Beth Ellen; Golish, Dathon

    2018-01-01

    The OSIRIS-REx spacecraft, launched in September, 2016, will study the asteroid Bennu and return a sample from its surface to Earth in 2023. Bennu is a near-Earth carbonaceous asteroid which will provide insight into the formation and evolution of the solar system. OSIRIS-REx will first approach Bennu in August 2018 and will study the asteroid for approximately two years before sampling. OSIRIS-REx will develop its photometric model (including Lommel-Seelinger, ROLO, McEwen, Minnaert and Akimov) of Bennu with OCAM and OVIRS during the Detailed Survey mission phase. The model developed during this phase will be used to photometrically correct the OCAM and OVIRS data.Here we present the analysis of the error for the photometric corrections. Based on our testing data sets, we find:1. The model uncertainties is only correct when we use the covariance matrix to calculate, because the parameters are highly correlated.2. No evidence of domination of any parameter in each model.3. And both model error and the data error contribute to the final correction error comparably.4. We tested the uncertainty module on fake and real data sets, and find that model performance depends on the data coverage and data quality. These tests gave us a better understanding of how different model behave in different case.5. L-S model is more reliable than others. Maybe because the simulated data are based on L-S model. However, the test on real data (SPDIF) does show slight advantage of L-S, too. ROLO is not reliable to use when calculating bond albedo. The uncertainty of McEwen model is big in most cases. Akimov performs unphysical on SOPIE 1 data.6. Better use L-S as our default choice, this conclusion is based mainly on our test on SOPIE data and IPDIF.

  15. Radionuclide analysis and scaling factors verification for LLRW of Taipower Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King, J.-Y.; Liu, K.-T.; Chen, S.-C.; Chang, T.-M.; Pung, T.-C.; Men, L.-C.; Wang, S.-J.

    2004-01-01

    The Atomic Energy Council of the Republic of China (CAEC) final disposal policy for Low Level Radwaste (LLRW) will be carried on in 1996. Institute of Nuclear Energy Research has the contract to develop the Radionuclide analysis method and to establish the scaling factors for LLRW of Taipower reactors. The radionuclides analyzed including: Co-60, Cs-137, Ce-144, γ-nuclides; H-3, C-14, Fe-55, Ni-59, Ni-63, Sr-90, Nb-94, Tc-99, I-129, Pu-238, Pu-239/240, Pu-241, Am-241, Cm-242, Cm-244 α, β and low energy γ nuclides. 120 samples taken from 21 waste streams were analyzed and the database was collected within 2 years. The scaling factors for different kind of waste streams were computed with weighted log-mean average method. In 1993, the scaling factors for each waste stream has been verified through actual station samples. (author)

  16. SWEET CORN FARMING: THE EFFECT OF PRODUCTION FACTOR, EFFICIENCY AND RETURN TO SCALE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dwijatenaya I.B.M.A.

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This research aims to determine the effect of production factors on the sweet corn production, the efficiency of sweet corn farming, and the return to scale of sweet corn production. The sampling technique was taken by proportionate stratified random sampling method with the sample number of 57 people while the analyzer used was the program of Frointer 4.1c. The results show that the production factors of the land farm, seed, and fertilizer have a positive and significant effect on sweet corn production. On the other hand, labor production factors have a positive but not significant effect on sweet corn production. It also found that technical efficiency, price efficiency, and economic efficiency of sweet corn farming in Muara Wis Sub-district of Kutai Kartanegara Regency are not efficient yet. The return to scale of sweet corn yield has an increasing return to scale condition.

  17. Dimensions of assertiveness: factors underlying the college self-expression scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kipper, D A; Jaffe, Y

    1978-02-01

    A total of 447 Israeli students, both males and females, from four educational institutions were administered the College Self-expression Scale, a measure of assertiveness. The obtained responses were factor analyzed using the principal axis solution and the varimax rotation method. The results showed four main factors which included 43 of the 50 items of the original scale. These factors were identified as the willingness to take risks in interpersonal interactions, the ability to communicate feelings, setting rules and rectifying injustices, and the presence or absence of a tendency to invoke a self-punitive attitude. The findings were interpreted as adding support to the validity of the scale as a measure of assertiveness.

  18. Using Uncertainty Quantification to Guide Development and Improvements of a Regional-Scale Model of the Coastal Lowlands Aquifer System Spanning Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, L. K.; Clark, B. R.; Duncan, L. L.; Tebo, D. T.; White, J.

    2017-12-01

    Several historical groundwater models exist within the Coastal Lowlands Aquifer System (CLAS), which spans the Gulf Coastal Plain in Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. The largest of these models, called the Gulf Coast Regional Aquifer System Analysis (RASA) model, has been brought into a new framework using the Newton formulation for MODFLOW-2005 (MODFLOW-NWT) and serves as the starting point of a new investigation underway by the U.S. Geological Survey to improve understanding of the CLAS and provide predictions of future groundwater availability within an uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework. The use of an UQ framework will not only provide estimates of water-level observation worth, hydraulic parameter uncertainty, boundary-condition uncertainty, and uncertainty of future potential predictions, but it will also guide the model development process. Traditionally, model development proceeds from dataset construction to the process of deterministic history matching, followed by deterministic predictions using the model. This investigation will combine the use of UQ with existing historical models of the study area to assess in a quantitative framework the effect model package and property improvements have on the ability to represent past-system states, as well as the effect on the model's ability to make certain predictions of water levels, water budgets, and base-flow estimates. Estimates of hydraulic property information and boundary conditions from the existing models and literature, forming the prior, will be used to make initial estimates of model forecasts and their corresponding uncertainty, along with an uncalibrated groundwater model run within an unconstrained Monte Carlo analysis. First-Order Second-Moment (FOSM) analysis will also be used to investigate parameter and predictive uncertainty, and guide next steps in model development prior to rigorous history matching by using PEST++ parameter estimation code.

  19. A measurement of the calorimeter response to single hadrons and determination of the jet energy scale uncertainty using LHC Run-1 pp-collision data with the ATLAS detector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aaboud, M. [Univ. Mohamed Premier et LPTPM, Oujda (Morocco). Faculte des Sciences; Aad, G. [CPPM, Aix-Marseille Univ. et CNRS/IN2P3, Marseille (France); Abbott, B. [Oklahoma Univ., Norman, OK (United States). Homer L. Dodge Dept. of Physics and Astronomy; Collaboration: ATLAS Collaboration; and others

    2017-01-15

    A measurement of the calorimeter response to isolated charged hadrons in the ATLAS detector at the LHC is presented. This measurement is performed with 3.2 nb{sup -1} of proton-proton collision data at √(s) = 7 TeV from 2010 and 0.1 nb{sup -1} of data at √(s) = 8 TeV from 2012. A number of aspects of the calorimeter response to isolated hadrons are explored. After accounting for energy deposited by neutral particles, there is a 5% discrepancy in the modelling, using various sets of Geant4 hadronic physics models, of the calorimeter response to isolated charged hadrons in the central calorimeter region. The description of the response to anti-protons at low momenta is found to be improved with respect to previous analyses. The electromagnetic and hadronic calorimeters are also examined separately, and the detector simulation is found to describe the response in the hadronic calorimeter well. The jet energy scale uncertainty and correlations in scale between jets of different momenta and pseudorapidity are derived based on these studies. The uncertainty is 2-5% for jets with transverse momenta above 2 TeV, where this method provides the jet energy scale uncertainty for ATLAS. (orig.)

  20. FACTOR ANALYSIS OF A SOCIAL SKILLS SCALE FOR HIGH SCHOOL STUDENTS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, H-Y; Lin, C-K

    2015-10-01

    The objective of this study was to develop a social skills scale for high school students in Taiwan. This study adopted stratified random sampling. A total of 1,729 high school students were included. The students ranged in age from 16 to 18 years. A Social Skills Scale was developed for this study and was designed for classroom teachers to fill out. The test-retest reliability of this scale was tested by Pearson's correlation coefficient. Exploratory factor analysis was used to determine construct validity. The Social Skills Scale had good overall test-retest reliability of .92, and the internal consistency of the five subscales was above .90. The results of the factor analysis showed that the Social Skills Scale covered the five domains of classroom learning skills, communication skills, individual initiative skills, interaction skills, and job-related social skills, and the five factors explained 68.34% of the variance. Thus, the Social Skills Scale had good reliability and validity and would be applicable to and could be promoted for use in schools.

  1. Periodic Verification of the Scaling Factor for Radwastes in Korean NPPs - 13294

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Yong Joon; Ahn, Hong Joo; Song, Byoung Chul; Song, Kyuseok [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, P.O. Box 105, Yuseong, Daejeon, 305-330 (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-07-01

    According to the acceptance criteria for a low and intermediate level radioactive waste (LILW) listed in Notice No. 2012-53 of the Nuclear Safety and Security Commission (NSSC), specific concentrations of radionuclides inside a drum has to be identified and quantified. In 5 years of effort, scaling factors were derived through destructive radiochemical analysis, and the dry active waste, spent resin, concentration bottom, spent filter, and sludge drums generated during 2004 ∼ 2008 were evaluated to identify radionuclide inventories. Eventually, only dry active waste among LILWs generated from Korean NPPs were first shipped to a permanent disposal facility on December 2010. For the LILWs generated after 2009, the radionuclides are being radiochemically quantified because the Notice clarifies that the certifications of the scaling factors should be verified biennially. During the operation of NPP, the radionuclides designated in the Notice are formed by neutron activation of primary coolant, reactor structural materials, corrosion products, and fission products released into primary coolant through defects or failures in fuel cladding. Eventually, since the radionuclides released into primary coolant are transported into the numerous auxiliary and support systems connected to primary system, the LILWs can be contaminated, and the radionuclides can have various concentration distributions. Thus, radioactive wastes, such as spent resin and dry active waste generated at various Korean NPP sites, were sampled at each site, and the activities of the regulated radionuclides present in the sample were determined using radiochemical methods. The scaling factors were driven on the basis of the activity ratios between a or β-emitting nuclides and γ-emitting nuclides. The resulting concentrations were directly compared with the established scaling factors' data using statistical methods. In conclusions, the established scaling factors were verified with a reliability

  2. Reliability of the factor structure of the Multidimensional Scale of Interpersonal Reactivity (EMRI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nilton S. Formiga

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to check the internal consistency and factor structure evaluative of the empathy scale in a high school and college sample in the state of Minas Gerais. The instruments that measure empathy can be easily found, however, of the existing, just multidimensional scale of interpersonal reactivity (Emri is the theoretical framework that has far more and better organized, and the scale that is most commonly used to assess this construct. Participated 488 subjects, male and female, with ages from 14-54 years old, distributed in primary and college levels in Patrocínio-MG composed this study sample. The subjects answered the Multidimensional Scale of Interpersonal Reactivity and socio-demographic data. From an equation analysis and structural modeling were observed psychometric indicators that assured the structural consistency of the scale, promoting in the security of the measure theoretical construct of empathy.

  3. Factor Structure of a Multidimensional Gender Identity Scale in a Sample of Chinese Elementary School Children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Yu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This study examined the factor structure of a scale based on the four-dimensional gender identity model (Egan and Perry, 2001 in 726 Chinese elementary school students. Exploratory factor analyses suggested a three-factor model, two of which corresponded to “Felt Pressure” and “Intergroup Bias” in the original model. The third factor “Gender Compatibility” appeared to be a combination of “Gender Typicality” and “Gender Contentment” in the original model. Follow-up confirmatory factor analysis (CFA indicated that, relative to the initial four-factor structure, the three-factor model fits the current Chinese sample better. These results are discussed in light of cross-cultural similarities and differences in development of gender identity.

  4. Projective synchronization of time-varying delayed neural network with adaptive scaling factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghosh, Dibakar; Banerjee, Santo

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Projective synchronization in coupled delayed neural chaotic systems with modulated delay time is introduced. • An adaptive rule for the scaling factors is introduced. • This scheme is highly applicable in secure communication. -- Abstract: In this work, the projective synchronization between two continuous time delayed neural systems with time varying delay is investigated. A sufficient condition for synchronization for the coupled systems with modulated delay is presented analytically with the help of the Krasovskii–Lyapunov approach. The effect of adaptive scaling factors on synchronization are also studied in details. Numerical simulations verify the effectiveness of the analytic results

  5. Factor Analysis of the Brazilian Version of UPPS Impulsive Behavior Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sediyama, Cristina Y. N.; Moura, Ricardo; Garcia, Marina S.; da Silva, Antonio G.; Soraggi, Carolina; Neves, Fernando S.; Albuquerque, Maicon R.; Whiteside, Setephen P.; Malloy-Diniz, Leandro F.

    2017-01-01

    Objective: To examine the internal consistency and factor structure of the Brazilian adaptation of the UPPS Impulsive Behavior Scale. Methods: UPPS is a self-report scale composed by 40 items assessing four factors of impulsivity: (a) urgency, (b) lack of premeditation; (c) lack of perseverance; (d) sensation seeking. In the present study 384 participants (278 women and 106 men), who were recruited from schools, universities, leisure centers and workplaces fulfilled the UPPS scale. An exploratory factor analysis was performed by using Varimax factor rotation and Kaiser Normalization, and we also conducted two confirmatory analyses to test the independency of the UPPS components found in previous analysis. Results: Results showed a decrease in mean UPPS total scores with age and this analysis showed that the youngest participants (below 30 years) scored significantly higher than the other groups over 30 years. No difference in gender was found. Cronbach’s alpha, results indicated satisfactory values for all subscales, with similar high values for the subscales and confirmatory factor analysis indexes also indicated a poor model fit. The results of two exploratory factor analysis were satisfactory. Conclusion: Our results showed that the Portuguese version has the same four-factor structure of the original and previous translations of the UPPS. PMID:28484414

  6. Factor Analysis of the Brazilian Version of UPPS Impulsive Behavior Scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leandro F. Malloy-Diniz

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To examine the internal consistency and factor structure of the Brazilian adaptation of the UPPS Impulsive Behavior Scale.Methods: UPPS is a self-report scale composed by 40 items assessing four factors of impulsivity: (a urgency, (b lack of premeditation; (c lack of perseverance; (d sensation seeking. In the present study 384 participants (278 women and 106 men, who were recruited from schools, universities, leisure centers and workplaces fulfilled the UPPS scale. An exploratory factor analysis was performed by using Varimax factor rotation and Kaiser Normalization, and we also conducted two confirmatory analyses to test the independency of the UPPS components found in previous analysis.Results: Results showed a decrease in mean UPPS total scores with age and this analysis showed that the youngest participants (below 30 years scored significantly higher than the other groups over 30 years. No difference in gender was found. Cronbach’s alpha, results indicated satisfactory values for all subscales, with similar high values for the subscales and confirmatory factor analysis indexes also indicated a poor model fit. The results of two exploratory factor analysis were satisfactory.Conclusion: Our results showed that the Portuguese version has the same four-factor structure of the original and previous translations of the UPPS.

  7. Factor Analysis of the Brazilian Version of UPPS Impulsive Behavior Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sediyama, Cristina Y N; Moura, Ricardo; Garcia, Marina S; da Silva, Antonio G; Soraggi, Carolina; Neves, Fernando S; Albuquerque, Maicon R; Whiteside, Setephen P; Malloy-Diniz, Leandro F

    2017-01-01

    Objective: To examine the internal consistency and factor structure of the Brazilian adaptation of the UPPS Impulsive Behavior Scale. Methods: UPPS is a self-report scale composed by 40 items assessing four factors of impulsivity: (a) urgency, (b) lack of premeditation; (c) lack of perseverance; (d) sensation seeking. In the present study 384 participants (278 women and 106 men), who were recruited from schools, universities, leisure centers and workplaces fulfilled the UPPS scale. An exploratory factor analysis was performed by using Varimax factor rotation and Kaiser Normalization, and we also conducted two confirmatory analyses to test the independency of the UPPS components found in previous analysis. Results: Results showed a decrease in mean UPPS total scores with age and this analysis showed that the youngest participants (below 30 years) scored significantly higher than the other groups over 30 years. No difference in gender was found. Cronbach's alpha, results indicated satisfactory values for all subscales, with similar high values for the subscales and confirmatory factor analysis indexes also indicated a poor model fit. The results of two exploratory factor analysis were satisfactory. Conclusion: Our results showed that the Portuguese version has the same four-factor structure of the original and previous translations of the UPPS.

  8. Uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, R.E.

    1982-03-01

    An evaluation is made of the suitability of analytical and statistical sampling methods for making uncertainty analyses. The adjoint method is found to be well-suited for obtaining sensitivity coefficients for computer programs involving large numbers of equations and input parameters. For this purpose the Latin Hypercube Sampling method is found to be inferior to conventional experimental designs. The Latin hypercube method can be used to estimate output probability density functions, but requires supplementary rank transformations followed by stepwise regression to obtain uncertainty information on individual input parameters. A simple Cork and Bottle problem is used to illustrate the efficiency of the adjoint method relative to certain statistical sampling methods. For linear models of the form Ax=b it is shown that a complete adjoint sensitivity analysis can be made without formulating and solving the adjoint problem. This can be done either by using a special type of statistical sampling or by reformulating the primal problem and using suitable linear programming software

  9. Handling uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jønsson, Jesper Bosse; Fold, Niels

    2009-01-01

    Small-scale mining supports the livelihoods of several hundred thousand rural households in Africa. Nonetheless, the understanding of the organizational dynamics of small-scale miners' activities is modest. The paper outlines the small-scale mining codes in Tanzania and contrasts them to prevalent...... organizational practices in two Tanzanian small-scale mining settlements. It is argued that there is a need to adjust the regulatory mechanisms to well-consolidated practices: If basic practices differ substantially from official prescriptions of the mining codes over an extended period of time, certain elements...... manoeuvring of local small-scale mining operators and the reasons for the variations are essential to understand for policymakers and development practitioners. By incorporating prevalent practices and context-dependent variations in some of the crucial organizational components, it is possible to design...

  10. Vibrational frequency scaling factors for correlation consistent basis sets and the methods CC2 and MP2 and their spin-scaled SCS and SOS variants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Friese, Daniel H., E-mail: daniel.h.friese@uit.no [Centre for Theoretical and Computational Chemistry CTCC, Department of Chemistry, University of Tromsø, N-9037 Tromsø (Norway); Törk, Lisa; Hättig, Christof, E-mail: christof.haettig@rub.de [Lehrstuhl für Theoretische Chemie, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, D-44801 Bochum (Germany)

    2014-11-21

    We present scaling factors for vibrational frequencies calculated within the harmonic approximation and the correlated wave-function methods coupled cluster singles and doubles model (CC2) and Møller-Plesset perturbation theory (MP2) with and without a spin-component scaling (SCS or spin-opposite scaling (SOS)). Frequency scaling factors and the remaining deviations from the reference data are evaluated for several non-augmented basis sets of the cc-pVXZ family of generally contracted correlation-consistent basis sets as well as for the segmented contracted TZVPP basis. We find that the SCS and SOS variants of CC2 and MP2 lead to a slightly better accuracy for the scaled vibrational frequencies. The determined frequency scaling factors can also be used for vibrational frequencies calculated for excited states through response theory with CC2 and the algebraic diagrammatic construction through second order and their spin-component scaled variants.

  11. Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scales are a visible peeling or flaking of outer skin layers. These layers are called the stratum ... Scales may be caused by dry skin, certain inflammatory skin conditions, or infections. Examples of disorders that ...

  12. Factor analysis and Mokken scaling of the Organizational Commitment Questionnaire in nurses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Yami, M; Galdas, P; Watson, R

    2018-03-22

    To generate an Arabic version of the Organizational Commitment Questionnaire that would be easily understood by Arabic speakers and would be sensitive to Arabic culture. The nursing workforce in Saudi Arabia is undergoing a process of Saudization but there is a need to understand the factors that will help to retain this workforce. No organizational commitment tools exist in Arabic that are specifically designed for health organizations. An Arabic version of the organizational commitment tool could aid Arabic speaking employers to understand their employees' perceptions of their organizations. Translation and back-translation followed by factor analysis (principal components analysis and confirmatory factor analysis) to test the factorial validity and item response theory (Mokken scaling). A two-factor structure was obtained for the Organizational Commitment Questionnaire comprising Factor 1: Value commitment; and Factor 2: Commitment to stay with acceptable reliability measured by internal consistency. A Mokken scale was obtained including items from both factors showing a hierarchy of items running from commitment to the organization and commitment to self. This study shows that the Arabic version of the OCQ retained the established two-factor structure of the original English-language version. Although the two factors - 'value commitment' and 'commitment to stay' - repudiate the original developers' single factor claim. A useful insight into the structure of the Organizational Commitment Questionnaire has been obtained with the novel addition of a hierarchical scale. The Organizational Commitment Questionnaire is now ready to be used with nurses in the Arab speaking world and could be used a tool to measure the contemporary commitment of nursing employees and in future interventions aimed at increasing commitment and retention of valuable nursing staff. © 2018 International Council of Nurses.

  13. Factor Structure of the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children: Fourth Edition in Children with ADHD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thaler, Nicholas S; Barchard, Kimberly A; Parke, Elyse; Jones, W Paul; Etcoff, Lewis M; Allen, Daniel N

    2015-12-01

    Recent evidence suggests that the factor structure of the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-Fourth Edition (WISC-IV) is better explained by a five-factor model rather than the four-factor model in the standardization sample. The current study examined the WISC-IV's factor structure in a sample of children with ADHD. Participants included 314 children and adolescents who were diagnosed with ADHD. Confirmatory factor analysis was conducted on the 10 core subtests of the WISC-IV, and three models were examined including two based on Cattell-Horn-Carroll (CHC) theory. A five-factor model consisting of Gc, Gf, Gv, Gsm, and Gs factors provided the best fit for the data. The Perceptual Reasoning factor identified in the original four-factor model split into the two CHC factors, Gf and Gv, and cross-loaded the Symbol Search subtest onto the Gv factor. A five-factor model based on CHC theory provided superior fit for the WISC-IV in children with ADHD, as has been found with the standardization sample. © The Author(s) 2012.

  14. On the dimensionality of the stress-related growth scale: one, three, or seven factors?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roesch, Scott C; Rowley, Anthony A; Vaughn, Allison A

    2004-06-01

    We examined the factorial validity and dimensionality of the Stress-Related Growth Scale (SRGS; Park, Cohen, & Murch, 1996) using a large multiethnic sample (n = 1,070). Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses suggested that a multidimensional representation of the SRGS fit better than a unidimensional representation. Specifically, we cross-validated both a 3-factor model and a 7-factor model using confirmatory factor analysis and were shown to be invariant across gender and ethnic groups. The 3-factor model was represented by global dimensions of growth that included rational/mature thinking, affective/emotional growth, and religious/spiritual growth. We replicated the 7-factor model of Armeli, Gunthert, and Cohen (2001) and it represented more specific components of growth such as Self-Understanding and Treatment of Others. However, some factors of the 7-factor model had questionable internal consistency and were strongly intercorrelated, suggesting redundancy. The findings support the notion that the factor structure of both the original 1-factor and revised 7-factor models are unstable and that the 3-factor model developed in this research has more reliable psychometric properties and structure.

  15. Cross-Cultural Validation of the Modified Practice Attitudes Scale: Initial Factor Analysis and a New Factor Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Heehoon; Ebesutani, Chad K; Chung, Kyong-Mee; Stanick, Cameo

    2018-01-01

    The objective of this study was to create the Korean version of the Modified Practice Attitudes Scale (K-MPAS) to measure clinicians' attitudes toward evidence-based treatments (EBTs) in the Korean mental health system. Using 189 U.S. therapists and 283 members from the Korean mental health system, we examined the reliability and validity of the MPAS scores. We also conducted the first exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis on the MPAS and compared EBT attitudes across U.S. and Korean therapists. Results revealed that the inclusion of both "reversed-worded" and "non-reversed-worded" items introduced significant method effects that compromised the integrity of the one-factor MPAS model. Problems with the one-factor structure were resolved by eliminating the "non-reversed-worded" items. Reliability and validity were adequate among both Korean and U.S. therapists. Korean therapists also reported significantly more negative attitudes toward EBTs on the MPAS than U.S. therapists. The K-MPAS is the first questionnaire designed to measure Korean service providers' attitudes toward EBTs to help advance the dissemination of EBTs in Korea. The current study also demonstrated the negative impacts that can be introduced by incorporating oppositely worded items into a scale, particularly with respect to factor structure and detecting significant group differences.

  16. Determination of the QCD color factor ratio CA/CF from the scale dependence of multiplicity in three jet events

    CERN Document Server

    Gary, J W

    2000-01-01

    I examine the determination of the QCD color factor ratio CA/CF from the scale evolution of particle multiplicity in e+e- three jet events. I fit an analytic expression for the multiplicity in three jet events to event samples generated with QCD multihadronic event generators. I demonstrate that a one parameter fit of CA/CF yields the expected result CA/CF=2.25 in the limit of asymptotically large energies if energy conservation is included in the calculation. In contrast, a two parameter fit of CA/CF and a constant offset to the gluon jet multiplicity, proposed in a recent study, does not yield CA/CF=2.25 in this limit. I apply the one parameter fit method to recently published data of the DELPHI experiment at LEP and determine the effective value of CA/CF from this technique, at the finite energy of the Z0 boson, to be 1.74+-0.03+-0.10, where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second is systematic.

  17. The self-transcendence scale: an investigation of the factor structure among nursing home patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haugan, Gørill; Rannestad, Toril; Garåsen, Helge; Hammervold, Randi; Espnes, Geir Arild

    2012-09-01

    Self-transcendence, the ability to expand personal boundaries in multiple ways, has been found to provide well-being. The purpose of this study was to examine the dimensionality of the Norwegian version of the Self-Transcendence Scale, which comprises 15 items. Reed's empirical nursing theory of self-transcendence provided the theoretical framework; self-transcendence includes an interpersonal, intrapersonal, transpersonal, and temporal dimension. Cross-sectional data were obtained from a sample of 202 cognitively intact elderly patients in 44 Norwegian nursing homes. Exploratory factor analysis revealed two and four internally consistent dimensions of self-transcendence, explaining 35.3% (two factors) and 50.7% (four factors) of the variance, respectively. Confirmatory factor analysis indicated that the hypothesized two- and four-factor models fitted better than the one-factor model (cx (2), root mean square error of approximation, standardized root mean square residual, normed fit index, nonnormed fit index, comparative fit index, goodness-of-fit index, and adjusted goodness-of-fit index). The findings indicate self-transcendence as a multifactorial construct; at present, we conclude that the two-factor model might be the most accurate and reasonable measure of self-transcendence. This research generates insights in the application of the widely used Self-Transcendence Scale by investigating its psychometric properties by applying a confirmatory factor analysis. It also generates new research-questions on the associations between self-transcendence and well-being.

  18. Consideration of the FQPA Safety Factor and Other Uncertainty Factors in Cumulative Risk Assessment of Chemicals Sharing a Common Mechanism of Toxicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    This guidance document provides OPP's current thinking on application of the provision in FFDCA about an additional safety factor for the protection of infants and children in the context of cumulative risk assessments.

  19. General Factor Loadings and Specific Effects of the Differential Ability Scales, Second Edition Composites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maynard, Jennifer L.; Floyd, Randy G.; Acklie, Teresa J.; Houston, Lawrence, III

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the "g" loadings and specific effects of the core and diagnostic composite scores from the Differential Abilities Scales, Second Edition (DAS-II; Elliott, 2007a). Scores from a subset of the DAS-II standardization sample for ages 3:6 to 17:11 were submitted to principal factor analysis. Four…

  20. Multi-Scale Factor Analysis of High-Dimensional Brain Signals

    KAUST Repository

    Ting, Chee-Ming; Ombao, Hernando; Salleh, Sh-Hussain

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we develop an approach to modeling high-dimensional networks with a large number of nodes arranged in a hierarchical and modular structure. We propose a novel multi-scale factor analysis (MSFA) model which partitions the massive

  1. The Factor Structure of the Spiritual Well-Being Scale in Veterans Experienced Chemical Weapon Exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharif Nia, Hamid; Pahlevan Sharif, Saeed; Boyle, Christopher; Yaghoobzadeh, Ameneh; Tahmasbi, Bahram; Rassool, G Hussein; Taebei, Mozhgan; Soleimani, Mohammad Ali

    2018-04-01

    This study aimed to determine the factor structure of the spiritual well-being among a sample of the Iranian veterans. In this methodological research, 211 male veterans of Iran-Iraq warfare completed the Paloutzian and Ellison spiritual well-being scale. Maximum likelihood (ML) with oblique rotation was used to assess domain structure of the spiritual well-being. The construct validity of the scale was assessed using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), convergent validity, and discriminant validity. Reliability was evaluated with Cronbach's alpha, Theta (θ), and McDonald Omega (Ω) coefficients, intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC), and construct reliability (CR). Results of ML and CFA suggested three factors which were labeled "relationship with God," "belief in fate and destiny," and "life optimism." The ICC, coefficients of the internal consistency, and CR were >.7 for the factors of the scale. Convergent validity and discriminant validity did not fulfill the requirements. The Persian version of spiritual well-being scale demonstrated suitable validity and reliability among the veterans of Iran-Iraq warfare.

  2. An Exploratory Factor Analysis of the Sexual Orientation Counselor Competency Scale: Examining the Variable of Experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Shainna; Lambie, Glenn; Bloom, Zachary D.

    2017-01-01

    The Sexual Orientation Counselor Competency Scale (SOCCS), developed by Bidell in 2005, measures counselors' levels of skills, awareness, and knowledge in assisting lesbian, gay, or bisexual (LGB) clients. In an effort to gain an increased understanding of the construct validity of the SOCCS, researchers performed an exploratory factor analysis on…

  3. Predicting the cosmological constant with the scale-factor cutoff measure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Simone, Andrea; Guth, Alan H.; Salem, Michael P.; Vilenkin, Alexander

    2008-01-01

    It is well known that anthropic selection from a landscape with a flat prior distribution of cosmological constant Λ gives a reasonable fit to observation. However, a realistic model of the multiverse has a physical volume that diverges with time, and the predicted distribution of Λ depends on how the spacetime volume is regulated. A very promising method of regulation uses a scale-factor cutoff, which avoids a number of serious problems that arise in other approaches. In particular, the scale-factor cutoff avoids the 'youngness problem' (high probability of living in a much younger universe) and the 'Q and G catastrophes' (high probability for the primordial density contrast Q and gravitational constant G to have extremely large or small values). We apply the scale-factor cutoff measure to the probability distribution of Λ, considering both positive and negative values. The results are in good agreement with observation. In particular, the scale-factor cutoff strongly suppresses the probability for values of Λ that are more than about 10 times the observed value. We also discuss qualitatively the prediction for the density parameter Ω, indicating that with this measure there is a possibility of detectable negative curvature.

  4. The Factor Structure of Preschool Learning Behaviors Scale Scores in Peruvian Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hahn, Kathryn R.; Schaefer, Barbara A.; Merino, Cesar; Worrell, Frank C.

    2009-01-01

    The factor structure of the Escala de Conductas de Aprendizaje Preescolar (ECAP), a Spanish translation of the Preschool Learning Behaviors Scale (PLBS), was examined in this study. Children aged 2 to 6 years (N = 328) enrolled in public and private preschools in the Republic of Peru were rated by classroom teachers on the frequency of observable,…

  5. An Evaluation of the Factor Structure of the Frost Multidimensional Perfectionism Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, Bronwyn; Pallant, Julie; Harvey, David

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of the study was to investigate whether the six-factor structure of the Frost Multidimensional Perfectionism Scale could be replicated in a community-based sample. A sample of 255 adult participants (55.7% female, 44.3% male) ranging in age from 18 to 78 (mean = 37.0) completed the questionnaire. Based on the screen test and parallel…

  6. Factor Analytic Study of Lecturer's Teaching Assessment Scale in Obafemi Awolowo University, Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jegede, Olu Philip; Faleye, Bamidele Abiodun; Adeyemo, Emily Oluseyi

    2015-01-01

    This study presents a validation report of the Lecturer's Teaching Assessment Scale (LTAS) developed for the assessment of lecturer's teaching effectiveness in Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria. It also examined the factor structure of the LTAS, its construct validity, and internal consistency reliability coefficients. The study adopted…

  7. Scale for positive aspects of caregiving experience: development, reliability, and factor structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kate, N; Grover, S; Kulhara, P; Nehra, R

    2012-06-01

    OBJECTIVE. To develop an instrument (Scale for Positive Aspects of Caregiving Experience [SPACE]) that evaluates positive caregiving experience and assess its psychometric properties. METHODS. Available scales which assess some aspects of positive caregiving experience were reviewed and a 50-item questionnaire with a 5-point rating was constructed. In all, 203 primary caregivers of patients with severe mental disorders were asked to complete the questionnaire. Internal consistency, test-retest reliability, cross-language reliability, split-half reliability, and face validity were evaluated. Principal component factor analysis was run to assess the factorial validity of the scale. RESULTS. The scale developed as part of the study was found to have good internal consistency, test-retest reliability, cross-language reliability, split-half reliability, and face validity. Principal component factor analysis yielded a 4-factor structure, which also had good test-retest reliability and cross-language reliability. There was a strong correlation between the 4 factors obtained. CONCLUSION. The SPACE developed as part of this study has good psychometric properties.

  8. Factor analysis of the scale of prodromal symptoms: differentiating between negative and depression symptoms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klaassen, Rianne M. C.; Velthorst, Eva; Nieman, Dorien H.; de Haan, Lieuwe; Becker, Hiske E.; Dingemans, Peter M.; van de Fliert, J. Reinaud; van der Gaag, Mark; Linszen, Don H.

    2011-01-01

    This study examines the ability of the Scale of Prodromal Symptoms (SOPS) to differentiate between negative and depression symptoms in a young help-seeking ultrahigh risk (UHR) group. SOPS data of 77 help-seeking patients at UHR for psychosis were analyzed with an exploratory factor analysis. The

  9. Factor Structure of the Restricted Academic Situation Scale: Implications for ADHD

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karama, Sherif; Amor, Leila Ben; Grizenko, Natalie; Ciampi, Antonio; Mbekou, Valentin; Ter-Stepanian, Marina; Lageix, Philippe; Baron, Chantal; Schwartz, George; Joober, Ridha

    2009-01-01

    Background: To study the factor structure of the Restricted Academic Situation Scale (RASS), a psychometric tool used to assess behavior in children with ADHD, 117 boys and 21 girls meeting "Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders" (4th ed.; "DSM-IV") criteria for ADHD and aged between 6 and 12 years were recruited. Assessments were…

  10. The Factor Structure and Screening Utility of the Social Interaction Anxiety Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodebaugh, Thomas L.; Woods, Carol M.; Heimberg, Richard G.; Liebowitz, Michael R.; Schneier, Franklin R.

    2006-01-01

    The widely used Social Interaction Anxiety Scale (SIAS; R. P. Mattick & J. C. Clarke, 1998) possesses favorable psychometric properties, but questions remain concerning its factor structure and item properties. Analyses included 445 people with social anxiety disorder and 1,689 undergraduates. Simple unifactorial models fit poorly, and models that…

  11. Factor Analytic Validation of the Ford, Wolvin, and Chung Listening Competence Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mickelson, William T.; Welch, S. A.

    2012-01-01

    This research begins to independently and quantitatively validate the Ford, Wolvin, and Chung (2000) Listening Competency Scale. Reliability and Confirmatory Factor analyses were conducted on two independent samples. The reliability estimates were found to be below those reported by Ford, Wolvin, and Chung (2000) and below acceptable levels for…

  12. Factor analysis of the hospital anxiety and depression scale among a Huntington's disease population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dale, Maria; Maltby, John; Martucci, Rossana

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Depression and anxiety are common in Huntington's disease, a genetic neurodegenerative disorder. There is a need for measurement tools of mood to be validated within a Huntington's disease population. The current study aimed to analyze the factor structure of the Hospital Anxiety...... and Depression Scale in Huntington's disease. METHODS: Data from the European Huntington's Disease Network study REGISTRY 3 were used to undertake a factor analysis of the scale among a sample of 492 Huntington's disease mutation carriers. The sample was randomly divided into two equal subsamples...... support for an eight-item version of the scale to be used as a measure of general distress within Huntington's disease populations. © 2015 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society....

  13. Exploratory factor structure of the neurological evaluation scale in black africans with first episode schizophrenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akin Ojagbemi

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available While the organization of neurological soft signs (NSS in schizophrenia into Sensory integration, Motor coordination, and Motor sequencing, is functionally ‘meaningful’, it has not been confirmed by empirical methods such as factor analysis. Data on the exploratory factor analysis of the Neurological Evaluation scale in Black Africans with first episode schizophrenia are presented in this report. Data on the confirmatory factor structure of NSS in this population as well as their interpretation can be found in the work by Ojagbemi et al. (2015 [7].

  14. Examining the Effect of Reverse Worded Items on the Factor Structure of the Need for Cognition Scale.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xijuan Zhang

    Full Text Available Reverse worded (RW items are often used to reduce or eliminate acquiescence bias, but there is a rising concern about their harmful effects on the covariance structure of the scale. Therefore, results obtained via traditional covariance analyses may be distorted. This study examined the effect of the RW items on the factor structure of the abbreviated 18-item Need for Cognition (NFC scale using confirmatory factor analysis. We modified the scale to create three revised versions, varying from no RW items to all RW items. We also manipulated the type of the RW items (polar opposite vs. negated. To each of the four scales, we fit four previously developed models. The four models included a 1-factor model, a 2-factor model distinguishing between positively worded (PW items and RW items, and two 2-factor models, each with one substantive factor and one method factor. Results showed that the number and type of the RW items affected the factor structure of the NFC scale. Consistent with previous research findings, for the original NFC scale, which contains both PW and RW items, the 1-factor model did not have good fit. In contrast, for the revised scales that had no RW items or all RW items, the 1-factor model had reasonably good fit. In addition, for the scale with polar opposite and negated RW items, the factor model with a method factor among the polar opposite items had considerably better fit than the 1-factor model.

  15. Factor structure of Bech's version of the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale in Brazilian patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.A.S. Crippa

    2002-10-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the present study was to evaluate the factor structure of Bech's version of the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS, translated into Portuguese. The BPRS was administered to a heterogeneous group of psychiatric inpatients (N = 98 and outpatients (N = 62 in a University Hospital. Each patient was evaluated from one to eight times. The interval between consecutive interviews was one week for the inpatients and one month for the outpatients. The results were submitted to factorial analysis. The internal consistency of the total scale and of each factor was also estimated. Factorial analysis followed by normalized orthogonal rotation (Varimax yielded four factors: Withdrawal-Retardation, Thinking Disorder, Anxious-Depression and Activation. Internal consistency measured by Cronbach's alpha coefficient ranged from 0.766 to 0.879. The data show that the factor structure of the present instrument is similar to that of the American version of the BPRS which contains 18 items, except for the absence of the fifth factor of the latter scale, Hostile-Suspiciousness.

  16. Asymptotic energy scale factors for pseudoscalar meson scattering and charmed meson couplings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thews, R.L.

    1977-01-01

    Energy scale factors ν 0 for PP → PP scattering amplitudes are related via absence of exotic resonances of ratios of tensor to vector coupling strengths. These same ratios are extracted from FESR's for non-exotic reactions. The scale factors obtained are all of the order of 1.0 GeV 2 or less, indepedent of quantum numbers. This contradicts the expectations of dual amplitudes in which ν 0 =1/α', and trajectory slopes are smaller for charmed mesons. Decay widths for tensor mesons are predicted. An observed SU(3) violation for the ratio A 2 → KantiK/K** → Kπ is shown to be consistent with the FESR results. Charmed meson decays are predicted to be factors of 2 to 3 larger than those predicted by SU(4). (author)

  17. Investigation of the factor structure of the mental, physical and spiritual well-being scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diane L. Green

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available The importance of mental, physical and spirituality in coping with violence is becoming increasingly recognized. As such, scales measuring these constructs are instrumental in assessment of clients from a holistic and strengths perspective, the foundation of social work. This article examines the factor structure of the Mental, Physical and Spiritual Well-being scale. The MPS is a 30 item, easy to administer, self report measure. The MPS was administered to 175 crime victims to assess whether or not the three factor structure fits the data from the sample. Exploratory statistical procedures were used to reduce data through principle component analysis identified three factors with eigenvalues greater than 1.0 and a cumulative variance of 57%. Recommendations are made for utilizing this brief self-report instrument in assessing victims of crime and training social workers and other practitioners.

  18. Modified projective synchronization with complex scaling factors of uncertain real chaos and complex chaos

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Fang-Fang; Liu Shu-Tang; Yu Wei-Yong

    2013-01-01

    To increase the variety and security of communication, we present the definitions of modified projective synchronization with complex scaling factors (CMPS) of real chaotic systems and complex chaotic systems, where complex scaling factors establish a link between real chaos and complex chaos. Considering all situations of unknown parameters and pseudo-gradient condition, we design adaptive CMPS schemes based on the speed-gradient method for the real drive chaotic system and complex response chaotic system and for the complex drive chaotic system and the real response chaotic system, respectively. The convergence factors and dynamical control strength are added to regulate the convergence speed and increase robustness. Numerical simulations verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the presented schemes. (general)

  19. Analysis on the restriction factors of the green building scale promotion based on DEMATEL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenxia, Hong; Zhenyao, Jiang; Zhao, Yang

    2017-03-01

    In order to promote the large-scale development of the green building in our country, DEMATEL method was used to classify influence factors of green building development into three parts, including green building market, green technology and macro economy. Through the DEMATEL model, the interaction mechanism of each part was analyzed. The mutual influence degree of each barrier factor that affects the green building promotion was quantitatively analysed and key factors for the development of green building in China were also finally determined. In addition, some implementation strategies of promoting green building scale development in our country were put forward. This research will show important reference value and practical value for making policies of the green building promotion.

  20. Benchmarking observational uncertainties for hydrology (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMillan, H. K.; Krueger, T.; Freer, J. E.; Westerberg, I.

    2013-12-01

    There is a pressing need for authoritative and concise information on the expected error distributions and magnitudes in hydrological data, to understand its information content. Many studies have discussed how to incorporate uncertainty information into model calibration and implementation, and shown how model results can be biased if uncertainty is not appropriately characterised. However, it is not always possible (for example due to financial or time constraints) to make detailed studies of uncertainty for every research study. Instead, we propose that the hydrological community could benefit greatly from sharing information on likely uncertainty characteristics and the main factors that control the resulting magnitude. In this presentation, we review the current knowledge of uncertainty for a number of key hydrological variables: rainfall, flow and water quality (suspended solids, nitrogen, phosphorus). We collated information on the specifics of the data measurement (data type, temporal and spatial resolution), error characteristics measured (e.g. standard error, confidence bounds) and error magnitude. Our results were primarily split by data type. Rainfall uncertainty was controlled most strongly by spatial scale, flow uncertainty was controlled by flow state (low, high) and gauging method. Water quality presented a more complex picture with many component errors. For all variables, it was easy to find examples where relative error magnitude exceeded 40%. We discuss some of the recent developments in hydrology which increase the need for guidance on typical error magnitudes, in particular when doing comparative/regionalisation and multi-objective analysis. Increased sharing of data, comparisons between multiple catchments, and storage in national/international databases can mean that data-users are far removed from data collection, but require good uncertainty information to reduce bias in comparisons or catchment regionalisation studies. Recently it has

  1. Confirmatory Factor Analysis of the French Version of the Anticipatory and Consummatory Interpersonal Pleasure Scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joséphine Chaix

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The Anticipatory and Consummatory Interpersonal Pleasure Scale (ACIPS, a measure specifically designed to assess hedonic capacity for social and interpersonal pleasure, was used to evaluate the presence of social anhedonia in patients as well as the general population. The first goal of this study was to validate the structure of the French version of the ACIPS. The second objective was to verify whether a one, two or three factor solution is most appropriate for the ACIPS scale. The French version of the ACIPS was tested on 263 French-speaking pre-graduate students or professional volunteers. For the confirmatory factor analysis, data were treated as categorical ordinal and all the models were estimated using a robust weighted least squares estimator with adjustments for the mean and variance. Three models were estimated. A one-factor model representing a general undifferentiated “pleasure” latent construct was first tested on the 17 ACIPS items. A two-factor model distinguishing anticipatory-pleasure and consummatory-pleasure was tested next. Finally, a three-factor model including subdomains of intimate social interactions, group social interactions, and social bonding was tested. The one and two-factor models showed a somewhat poor fit to the data. However, the goodness of fit of the three factor model was adequate. These results suggest that individuals who enjoyed interaction in one of these three subdomains were more likely to enjoy doing so in the two other domains. However, on the basis of the comparison between the one and three factor models, these three types of interactions may not be considered as indistinguishable. Rather, they represent distinct and theoretically meaningful dimensions. These results show the French version of the ACIPS is a useful and valid scale to measure the capacity of savoring different kinds of social relationships.

  2. Factor structure and internal reliability of an exercise health belief model scale in a Mexican population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oscar Armando Esparza-Del Villar

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mexico is one of the countries with the highest rates of overweight and obesity around the world, with 68.8% of men and 73% of women reporting both. This is a public health problem since there are several health related consequences of not exercising, like having cardiovascular diseases or some types of cancers. All of these problems can be prevented by promoting exercise, so it is important to evaluate models of health behaviors to achieve this goal. Among several models the Health Belief Model is one of the most studied models to promote health related behaviors. This study validates the first exercise scale based on the Health Belief Model (HBM in Mexicans with the objective of studying and analyzing this model in Mexico. Methods Items for the scale called the Exercise Health Belief Model Scale (EHBMS were developed by a health research team, then the items were applied to a sample of 746 participants, male and female, from five cities in Mexico. The factor structure of the items was analyzed with an exploratory factor analysis and the internal reliability with Cronbach’s alpha. Results The exploratory factor analysis reported the expected factor structure based in the HBM. The KMO index (0.92 and the Barlett’s sphericity test (p < 0.01 indicated an adequate and normally distributed sample. Items had adequate factor loadings, ranging from 0.31 to 0.92, and the internal consistencies of the factors were also acceptable, with alpha values ranging from 0.67 to 0.91. Conclusions The EHBMS is a validated scale that can be used to measure exercise based on the HBM in Mexican populations.

  3. Factor Structure and Psychometric Properties of the Work-Family Balance Scale in an Urban Chinese Sample

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Huiping; Yip, Paul S. F.; Chi, Peilian; Chan, Kinsun; Cheung, Yee Tak; Zhang, Xiulan

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to explore the factor structure of the Work-Family Balance Scale (WFBS) and examine its reliability and validity in use in the urban Chinese population. The scale was validated using a sample of 605 urban Chinese residents from 7 cities. Exploratory factor analysis identified two factors: work-family conflict and…

  4. Factor Structure and Measurement Invariance of the Need-Supportive Teaching Style Scale for Physical Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jing-Dong; Chung, Pak-Kwong

    2017-08-01

    The purpose of the current study was to examine the factor structure and measurement invariance of a scale measuring students' perceptions of need-supportive teaching (Need-Supportive Teaching Style Scale in Physical Education; NSTSSPE). We sampled 615 secondary school students in Hong Kong, 200 of whom also completed a follow-up assessment two months later. Factor structure of the scale was examined through exploratory structural equation modeling (ESEM). Further, nomological validity of the NSTSSPE was evaluated by examining the relationships between need-supportive teaching style and student satisfaction of psychological needs. Finally, four measurement models-configural, metric invariance, scalar invariance, and item uniqueness invariance-were assessed using multiple group ESEM to test the measurement invariance of the scale across gender, grade, and time. ESEM results suggested a three-factor structure of the NSTSSPE. Nomological validity was supported, and weak, strong, and strict measurement invariance of the NSTSSPE was evidenced across gender, grade, and time. The current study provides initial psychometric support for the NSTSSPE to assess student perceptions of teachers' need-supportive teaching style in physical education classes.

  5. Macroecological factors shape local-scale spatial patterns in agriculturalist settlements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, Tingting; Abades, Sebastián; Teng, Shuqing; Huang, Zheng Y X; Reino, Luís; Chen, Bin J W; Zhang, Yong; Xu, Chi; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2017-11-15

    Macro-scale patterns of human systems ranging from population distribution to linguistic diversity have attracted recent attention, giving rise to the suggestion that macroecological rules shape the assembly of human societies. However, in which aspects the geography of our own species is shaped by macroecological factors remains poorly understood. Here, we provide a first demonstration that macroecological factors shape strong local-scale spatial patterns in human settlement systems, through an analysis of spatial patterns in agriculturalist settlements in eastern mainland China based on high-resolution Google Earth images. We used spatial point pattern analysis to show that settlement spatial patterns are characterized by over-dispersion at fine spatial scales (0.05-1.4 km), consistent with territory segregation, and clumping at coarser spatial scales beyond the over-dispersion signals, indicating territorial clustering. Statistical modelling shows that, at macroscales, potential evapotranspiration and topographic heterogeneity have negative effects on territory size, but positive effects on territorial clustering. These relationships are in line with predictions from territory theory for hunter-gatherers as well as for many animal species. Our results help to disentangle the complex interactions between intrinsic spatial processes in agriculturalist societies and external forcing by macroecological factors. While one may speculate that humans can escape ecological constraints because of unique abilities for environmental modification and globalized resource transportation, our work highlights that universal macroecological principles still shape the geography of current human agricultural societies. © 2017 The Author(s).

  6. A Study on the Estimation of the Scale Factor for Precise Point Positioning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erdogan, Bahattin; Kayacik, Orhan

    2017-04-01

    Precise Point Positioning (PPP) technique is one of the most important subject in Geomatic Engineering. PPP technique needs only one GNSS receiver and users have preferred it instead of traditional relative positioning technique for several applications. Scientific software has been used for PPP solutions and the software may underestimate the formal errors of the estimated coordinates. The formal errors have major effects on statistical interpretation. Variance-Covariance (VCV) matrix derived from GNSS processing software plays important role for deformation analysis and scientists sometimes need to scale VCV matrix. In this study, 10 continuously operating reference stations have been considered for 11 days dated 2014. All points have been analyzed by Gipsy-OASIS v6.4 scientific software. The solutions were derived for different session durations as 2, 4, 6, 8, 12 and 24 hours to obtain repeatability of the coordinates and analyses were carried out in order to estimate scale factor for Gipsy-OASIS v6.4 PPP results. According to the first results scale factors slightly increase depending on the raises in respect of session duration. Keywords: Precise Point Positioning, Gipsy-OASIS v6.4, Variance-Covariance Matrix, Scale Factor

  7. Uncertainty in adaptive capacity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neil Adger, W.; Vincent, K.

    2005-01-01

    The capacity to adapt is a critical element of the process of adaptation: it is the vector of resources that represent the asset base from which adaptation actions can be made. Adaptive capacity can in theory be identified and measured at various scales, from the individual to the nation. The assessment of uncertainty within such measures comes from the contested knowledge domain and theories surrounding the nature of the determinants of adaptive capacity and the human action of adaptation. While generic adaptive capacity at the national level, for example, is often postulated as being dependent on health, governance and political rights, and literacy, and economic well-being, the determinants of these variables at national levels are not widely understood. We outline the nature of this uncertainty for the major elements of adaptive capacity and illustrate these issues with the example of a social vulnerability index for countries in Africa. (authors)

  8. Experimental verification of the statistical theories of scaling factor effect in fatigue fracture of steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Svistun, R.P.; Babej, Yu.I.; Tkachenko, N.N.

    1976-01-01

    Statistical theories of the scale effect in the fatigue failure of 40KH18N9T, 10 and 20 steels have been verified. The theories are shown to be not invariably suitable for a satisfactory exlanation of the fatigue strength of the samples with respect to their dimensions. One of the main reasons for displaying the scale effect in the process of steel fatigue is the sample self-heating, i.e. a temperature factor which in many cases overlaps a statistical one

  9. Experimental verification of the statistical theories of scaling factor effect in fatigue fracture of steel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Svistun, R P; Babei, Yu I; Tkachenko, N N [AN Ukrainskoj SSR, Lvov. Fiziko-Mekhanicheskij Inst.; L' vovskij Lesotekhnicheskij Inst. (Ukrainian SSR))

    1976-01-01

    Statistical theories of the scale effect in the fatigue failure of 40KH18N9T, 10 and 20 steels have been verified. The theories are shown to be not invariably suitable for a satisfactory exlanation of the fatigue strength of the samples with respect to their dimensions. One of the main reasons for displaying the scale effect in the process of steel fatigue is the sample self-heating, i.e. a temperature factor which in many cases overlaps a statistical one.

  10. A Confirmatory Factor Analysis of the Structure of Abbreviated Math Anxiety Scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farahman Farrokhi

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available "nObjective: The aim of this study is to explore the confirmatory factor analysis results of the Persian adaptation of Abbreviated Math Anxiety Scale (AMAS, proposed by Hopko, Mahadevan, Bare & Hunt. "nMethod: The validity and reliability assessments of the scale were performed on 298 college students chosen randomly from Tabriz University in Iran. The confirmatory factor analysis (CFA was carried out to determine the factor structures of the Persian version of AMAS. "nResults: As expected, the two-factor solution provided a better fit to the data than a single factor. Moreover, multi-group analyses showed that this two-factor structure was invariant across sex. Hence, AMAS provides an equally valid measure for use among college students. "nConclusions:  Brief AMAS demonstrates adequate reliability and validity. The AMAS scores can be used to compare symptoms of math anxiety between male and female students. The study both expands and adds support to the existing body of math anxiety literature.

  11. Factor structure of the Liebowitz Social Anxiety Scale for Children and Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storch, Eric A; Masia-Warner, Carrie; Heidgerken, Amanda D; Fisher, Paige H; Pincus, Donna B; Liebowitz, Michael R

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the factor structure of the Liebowitz Social Anxiety Scale for Children and Adolescents (LSAS-CA). The LSAS-CA was administered to 225 children and adolescents as a component of various clinical studies. In addition, other measures of psychopathology and impairment were administered to a subgroup of the sample. Confirmatory factor analyses of the social interaction and performance subscales for the anxiety and avoidance ratings yielded poor fit indices. Exploratory factor analysis supported a two-factor solution with a higher order factor for the LSAS-CA anxiety and avoidance ratings. Based on item content, factors were named Social and School Performance. The internal consistency of the factors was high and the convergent and divergent validity was supported vis-à-vis correlations with measures of depression and social anxiety, and clinician ratings of impairment and functioning. Findings suggest that the anxiety and avoidance ratings are best explained by a two-factor solution that measures social anxiety and avoidance in social and school performance interactions. This factor structure appears to be a reliable and valid framework for assessing childhood social phobia.

  12. Seizure Self-Efficacy Scale for Children with Epilepsy: Confirmatory and Exploratory Factor Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Şerife Tutar Güven

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Aim: In the past few years, the concept of self-efficacy in children with epilepsy has become increasingly important. This study aimed to analyze the psychometric aspects of the Turkish version of the Seizure Self-Efficacy Scale for Children. Materials and Methods: This is a cross-sectional survey. The study data were collected using the Seizure Self-Efficacy Scale for Children and Child Introduction Form. The study sample included 166 children who were between 9 and 17 years of age. The authors assessed the reliability and construct validity of the study data using exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses (CFA. Results: The original model was not confirmed by the CFA. The analysis tool included 15 items in two factors. Reliability analysis showed that the two factors were acceptable and valid. The tool was valid and reliable for measuring the self-efficacy of epileptic children. The factor structure was derived from and confirmed by the original tool. It was found that the Turkish version of the modified Seizure Self-Efficacy Scale for Children had excellent satisfactory psychometric aspects for a Turkish population. Conclusion: Health professionals can present a more effective drug process and nursing care by identifying and assessing seizure self-efficacy levels in children with epilepsy, and they can make a positive contribution to disease management and the way the child deals with the disease.

  13. Neighborhood street scale elements, sedentary time and cardiometabolic risk factors in inactive ethnic minority women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Rebecca E; Mama, Scherezade K; Adamus-Leach, Heather J

    2012-01-01

    Cardiometabolic risk factors such as obesity, excess percent body fat, high blood pressure, elevated resting heart rate and sedentary behavior have increased in recent decades due to changes in the environment and lifestyle. Neighborhood micro-environmental, street scale elements may contribute to health above and beyond individual characteristics of residents. To investigate the relationship between neighborhood street scale elements and cardiometabolic risk factors among inactive ethnic minority women. Women (N = 410) completed measures of BMI, percent body fat, blood pressure, resting heart rate, sedentary behavior and demographics. Trained field assessors completed the Pedestrian Environment Data Scan in participants' neighborhoods. Data were collected from 2006-2008. Multiple regression models were conducted in 2011 to estimate the effect of environmental factors on cardiometabolic risk factors. Adjusted regression models found an inverse association between sidewalk buffers and blood pressure, between traffic control devices and resting heart rate, and a positive association between presence of pedestrian crossing aids and BMI (psattractiveness and safety for walking and cycling were related to more time spent in a motor vehicle (psrelationships among micro-environmental, street scale elements that may confer important cardiometabolic benefits and risks for residents. Living in the most attractive and safe neighborhoods for physical activity may be associated with longer times spent sitting in the car.

  14. Neighborhood street scale elements, sedentary time and cardiometabolic risk factors in inactive ethnic minority women.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecca E Lee

    Full Text Available Cardiometabolic risk factors such as obesity, excess percent body fat, high blood pressure, elevated resting heart rate and sedentary behavior have increased in recent decades due to changes in the environment and lifestyle. Neighborhood micro-environmental, street scale elements may contribute to health above and beyond individual characteristics of residents.To investigate the relationship between neighborhood street scale elements and cardiometabolic risk factors among inactive ethnic minority women.Women (N = 410 completed measures of BMI, percent body fat, blood pressure, resting heart rate, sedentary behavior and demographics. Trained field assessors completed the Pedestrian Environment Data Scan in participants' neighborhoods. Data were collected from 2006-2008. Multiple regression models were conducted in 2011 to estimate the effect of environmental factors on cardiometabolic risk factors.Adjusted regression models found an inverse association between sidewalk buffers and blood pressure, between traffic control devices and resting heart rate, and a positive association between presence of pedestrian crossing aids and BMI (ps<.05. Neighborhood attractiveness and safety for walking and cycling were related to more time spent in a motor vehicle (ps<.05.Findings suggest complex relationships among micro-environmental, street scale elements that may confer important cardiometabolic benefits and risks for residents. Living in the most attractive and safe neighborhoods for physical activity may be associated with longer times spent sitting in the car.

  15. Natural recharge estimation and uncertainty analysis of an adjudicated groundwater basin using a regional-scale flow and subsidence model (Antelope Valley, California, USA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siade, Adam J.; Nishikawa, Tracy; Martin, Peter

    2015-01-01

    Groundwater has provided 50–90 % of the total water supply in Antelope Valley, California (USA). The associated groundwater-level declines have led the Los Angeles County Superior Court of California to recently rule that the Antelope Valley groundwater basin is in overdraft, i.e., annual pumpage exceeds annual recharge. Natural recharge consists primarily of mountain-front recharge and is an important component of the total groundwater budget in Antelope Valley. Therefore, natural recharge plays a major role in the Court’s decision. The exact quantity and distribution of natural recharge is uncertain, with total estimates from previous studies ranging from 37 to 200 gigaliters per year (GL/year). In order to better understand the uncertainty associated with natural recharge and to provide a tool for groundwater management, a numerical model of groundwater flow and land subsidence was developed. The transient model was calibrated using PEST with water-level and subsidence data; prior information was incorporated through the use of Tikhonov regularization. The calibrated estimate of natural recharge was 36 GL/year, which is appreciably less than the value used by the court (74 GL/year). The effect of parameter uncertainty on the estimation of natural recharge was addressed using the Null-Space Monte Carlo method. A Pareto trade-off method was also used to portray the reasonableness of larger natural recharge rates. The reasonableness of the 74 GL/year value and the effect of uncertain pumpage rates were also evaluated. The uncertainty analyses indicate that the total natural recharge likely ranges between 34.5 and 54.3 GL/year.

  16. Statistical Analysis of Instantaneous Frequency Scaling Factor as Derived From Optical Disdrometer Measurements At KQ Bands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zemba, Michael; Nessel, James; Houts, Jacquelynne; Luini, Lorenzo; Riva, Carlo

    2016-01-01

    The rain rate data and statistics of a location are often used in conjunction with models to predict rain attenuation. However, the true attenuation is a function not only of rain rate, but also of the drop size distribution (DSD). Generally, models utilize an average drop size distribution (Laws and Parsons or Marshall and Palmer. However, individual rain events may deviate from these models significantly if their DSD is not well approximated by the average. Therefore, characterizing the relationship between the DSD and attenuation is valuable in improving modeled predictions of rain attenuation statistics. The DSD may also be used to derive the instantaneous frequency scaling factor and thus validate frequency scaling models. Since June of 2014, NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) and the Politecnico di Milano (POLIMI) have jointly conducted a propagation study in Milan, Italy utilizing the 20 and 40 GHz beacon signals of the Alphasat TDP#5 Aldo Paraboni payload. The Ka- and Q-band beacon receivers provide a direct measurement of the signal attenuation while concurrent weather instrumentation provides measurements of the atmospheric conditions at the receiver. Among these instruments is a Thies Clima Laser Precipitation Monitor (optical disdrometer) which yields droplet size distributions (DSD); this DSD information can be used to derive a scaling factor that scales the measured 20 GHz data to expected 40 GHz attenuation. Given the capability to both predict and directly observe 40 GHz attenuation, this site is uniquely situated to assess and characterize such predictions. Previous work using this data has examined the relationship between the measured drop-size distribution and the measured attenuation of the link]. The focus of this paper now turns to a deeper analysis of the scaling factor, including the prediction error as a function of attenuation level, correlation between the scaling factor and the rain rate, and the temporal variability of the drop size

  17. Factor substitution, and economies of scale and utilisation in Kuwait's crude oil industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Mutairi, Naief; Burney, Nadeem A.

    2002-01-01

    The cost structure of the crude oil industry in Kuwait has been examined, with specific focus on factor substitution, and economies of scale and utilisation. This has been done by estimating translog cost functions, both long-run and short-run, using time-series data covering the period from 1976 to 1996. The results indicate that the implied production structure is non-homothetic, and the pattern of scale effect is labour saving, but capital and material using. The evidence also supports the presence of an induced exogenous technical change, which is non-neutral (labour and capital using, and material saving). The elasticity of substitution between capital and labour is positive, implying that the two inputs are substitute. The results also indicate the existence of diseconomies of scale in the production of crude oil, but no economies or diseconomies of utilisation

  18. Factor structure of the Japanese version of the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale in the postpartum period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubota, Chika; Okada, Takashi; Aleksic, Branko; Nakamura, Yukako; Kunimoto, Shohko; Morikawa, Mako; Shiino, Tomoko; Tamaji, Ai; Ohoka, Harue; Banno, Naomi; Morita, Tokiko; Murase, Satomi; Goto, Setsuko; Kanai, Atsuko; Masuda, Tomoko; Ando, Masahiko; Ozaki, Norio

    2014-01-01

    The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) is a widely used screening tool for postpartum depression (PPD). Although the reliability and validity of EPDS in Japanese has been confirmed and the prevalence of PPD is found to be about the same as Western countries, the factor structure of the Japanese version of EPDS has not been elucidated yet. 690 Japanese mothers completed all items of the EPDS at 1 month postpartum. We divided them randomly into two sample sets. The first sample set (n = 345) was used for exploratory factor analysis, and the second sample set was used (n = 345) for confirmatory factor analysis. The result of exploratory factor analysis indicated a three-factor model consisting of anxiety, depression and anhedonia. The results of confirmatory factor analysis suggested that the anxiety and anhedonia factors existed for EPDS in a sample of Japanese women at 1 month postpartum. The depression factor varies by the models of acceptable fit. We examined EPDS scores. As a result, "anxiety" and "anhedonia" exist for EPDS among postpartum women in Japan as already reported in Western countries. Cross-cultural research is needed for future research.

  19. Factor structure of the Japanese version of the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale in the postpartum period.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chika Kubota

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS is a widely used screening tool for postpartum depression (PPD. Although the reliability and validity of EPDS in Japanese has been confirmed and the prevalence of PPD is found to be about the same as Western countries, the factor structure of the Japanese version of EPDS has not been elucidated yet. METHODS: 690 Japanese mothers completed all items of the EPDS at 1 month postpartum. We divided them randomly into two sample sets. The first sample set (n = 345 was used for exploratory factor analysis, and the second sample set was used (n = 345 for confirmatory factor analysis. RESULTS: The result of exploratory factor analysis indicated a three-factor model consisting of anxiety, depression and anhedonia. The results of confirmatory factor analysis suggested that the anxiety and anhedonia factors existed for EPDS in a sample of Japanese women at 1 month postpartum. The depression factor varies by the models of acceptable fit. CONCLUSIONS: We examined EPDS scores. As a result, "anxiety" and "anhedonia" exist for EPDS among postpartum women in Japan as already reported in Western countries. Cross-cultural research is needed for future research.

  20. Pain anxiety differentially mediates the association of pain intensity with function depending on level of intolerance of uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischerauer, Stefan F; Talaei-Khoei, Mojtaba; Vissers, Frederique L; Chen, Neal; Vranceanu, Ana-Maria

    2018-02-01

    Uncertainty about symptom duration, cause, prognosis and treatment is common in patients who seek medical care, yet individual ability to manage this uncertainty varies. Intolerance of uncertainty is considered an important factor in the etiology and persistence of negative emotions- in particular, depression and anxiety. We explored the contribution of intolerance of uncertainty to anxiety due to pain and physical function in patients seeking care at an orthopedic medical practice. Participants (N = 105, mean age of 51 ± 17, 63% male) were administered PROMIS Physical Function v1.2 Upper Extremity CAT, Numerical Rating Scale (NRS), Pain Anxiety Symptoms Scale-short form (PASS-20), and the Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale-short version (IUS-12). Results showed that the mediating role of pain anxiety is contingent upon the level of intolerance of uncertainty. Specifically, a minimum level of intolerance of uncertainty is required for the development of pain anxiety and its effect on function, and as intolerance of uncertainty rises from low to medium to high levels, the effect of pain on function goes from being independent of the anxiety to being more and more carried by and through anxiety about pain. These findings support the contention that intolerance of uncertainty plays a crucial role in the relationship between pain, pain anxiety, and physical function. Intolerance of uncertainty appears to be a trans-diagnostic target for coping skills training. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Experimental control of calculation model of scale factor during fracture of circular samples with cracks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gnyp, I.P.; Ganulich, B.K.; Pokhmurskij, V.I.

    1982-01-01

    Reliable methods of estimation of cracking resistance of low-strength plastic materials using the notched samples acceptable for laboratory tests are analysed. Experimental data on the fracture of round notched samples for a number of steels are given. A perfect comparability of calculational and experimental data confirms the legitimacy of the proposed scheme of estimation of the scale factor effect. The necessity of taking into account the strain hardening coefficient at the choice of a sample size for determining the stress intensity factor is pointed out

  2. The reasons for betel-quid chewing scale: assessment of factor structure, reliability, and validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Little, Melissa A; Pokhrel, Pallav; Murphy, Kelle L; Kawamoto, Crissy T; Suguitan, Gil S; Herzog, Thaddeus A

    2014-06-03

    Despite the fact that betel-quid is one of the most commonly used psychoactive substances worldwide and a major risk-factor for head-and-neck cancer incidence and mortality globally, currently no standardized instrument is available to assess the reasons why individuals chew betel-quid. A measure to assess reasons for chewing betel-quid could help researchers and clinicians develop prevention and treatment strategies. In the current study, we sought to develop and evaluate a self-report instrument for assessing the reasons for chewing betel quid which contributes toward the goal of developing effective interventions to reduce betel quid chewing in vulnerable populations. The current study assessed the factor structure, reliability and convergent validity of the Reasons for Betel-quid Chewing Scale (RBCS), a newly developed 10 item measure adapted from several existing "reasons for smoking" scales. The measure was administered to 351 adult betel-quid chewers in Guam. Confirmatory factor analysis of this measure revealed a three factor structure: reinforcement, social/cultural, and stimulation. Further tests revealed strong support for the internal consistency and convergent validity of this three factor measure. The goal of designing an intervention to reduce betel-quid chewing necessitates an understanding of why chewers chew; the current study makes considerable contributions towards that objective.

  3. Multi-Scale Factor Analysis of High-Dimensional Brain Signals

    KAUST Repository

    Ting, Chee-Ming

    2017-05-18

    In this paper, we develop an approach to modeling high-dimensional networks with a large number of nodes arranged in a hierarchical and modular structure. We propose a novel multi-scale factor analysis (MSFA) model which partitions the massive spatio-temporal data defined over the complex networks into a finite set of regional clusters. To achieve further dimension reduction, we represent the signals in each cluster by a small number of latent factors. The correlation matrix for all nodes in the network are approximated by lower-dimensional sub-structures derived from the cluster-specific factors. To estimate regional connectivity between numerous nodes (within each cluster), we apply principal components analysis (PCA) to produce factors which are derived as the optimal reconstruction of the observed signals under the squared loss. Then, we estimate global connectivity (between clusters or sub-networks) based on the factors across regions using the RV-coefficient as the cross-dependence measure. This gives a reliable and computationally efficient multi-scale analysis of both regional and global dependencies of the large networks. The proposed novel approach is applied to estimate brain connectivity networks using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data. Results on resting-state fMRI reveal interesting modular and hierarchical organization of human brain networks during rest.

  4. Enabling and challenging factors in institutional reform: The case of SCALE-UP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foote, Kathleen; Knaub, Alexis; Henderson, Charles; Dancy, Melissa; Beichner, Robert J.

    2016-06-01

    While many innovative teaching strategies exist, integration into undergraduate science teaching has been frustratingly slow. This study aims to understand the low uptake of research-based instructional innovations by studying 21 successful implementations of the Student Centered Active Learning with Upside-down Pedagogies (SCALE-UP) instructional reform. SCALE-UP significantly restructures the classroom environment and pedagogy to promote highly active and interactive instruction. Although originally designed for university introductory physics courses, SCALE-UP has spread to many other disciplines at hundreds of departments around the world. This study reports findings from in-depth, open-ended interviews with 21 key contact people involved with successful secondary implementations of SCALE-UP throughout the United States. We defined successful implementations as those who restructured their pedagogy and classroom and sustained and/or spread the change. Interviews were coded to identify the most common enabling and challenging factors during reform implementation and compared to the theoretical framework of Kotter's 8-step Change Model. The most common enabling influences that emerged are documenting and leveraging evidence of local success, administrative support, interaction with outside SCALE-UP user(s), and funding. Many challenges are linked to the lack of these enabling factors including difficulty finding funding, space, and administrative and/or faculty support for reform. Our focus on successful secondary implementations meant that most interviewees were able to overcome challenges. Presentation of results is illuminated with case studies, quotes, and examples that can help secondary implementers with SCALE-UP reform efforts specifically. We also discuss the implications for policy makers, researchers, and the higher education community concerned with initiating structural change.

  5. Spatial Variation of Magnitude Scaling Factors During the 2010 Darfield and 2011 Christchurch, New Zealand, Earthquakes

    OpenAIRE

    Carter, William Lake

    2016-01-01

    Magnitude Scaling Factors (MSF) account for the durational effects of strong ground shaking on the inducement of liquefaction within the simplified liquefaction evaluation procedure which is the most commonly used approach for assessing liquefaction potential worldwide. Within the context of the simplified procedure, the spatial variation in the seismic demand imposed on the soil traditionally has been assumed to be solely a function of the spatial variation of the peak amplitude of the groun...

  6. Uncertainty in geological and hydrogeological data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Nilsson

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Uncertainty in conceptual model structure and in environmental data is of essential interest when dealing with uncertainty in water resources management. To make quantification of uncertainty possible is it necessary to identify and characterise the uncertainty in geological and hydrogeological data. This paper discusses a range of available techniques to describe the uncertainty related to geological model structure and scale of support. Literature examples on uncertainty in hydrogeological variables such as saturated hydraulic conductivity, specific yield, specific storage, effective porosity and dispersivity are given. Field data usually have a spatial and temporal scale of support that is different from the one on which numerical models for water resources management operate. Uncertainty in hydrogeological data variables is characterised and assessed within the methodological framework of the HarmoniRiB classification.

  7. FACTOR-ANALYSIS OF THE LEVEL OF EXPRESSED EMOTION SCALE, A QUESTIONNAIRE INTENDED TO MEASURE PERCEIVED EXPRESSED EMOTION

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    GERLSMA, C; VANDERLUBBE, PM; VANNIEUWENHUIZEN, C

    When the factor structure and psychometric qualities of the Level of Expressed Emotion scale, an instrument intended to assess patient's perceptions of expressed emotion, were evaluated, three moderately intercorrelated factors emerged, with good internal consistency; these were lack of emotional

  8. A New Scale Factor Adjustment Method for Magnetic Force Feedback Accelerometer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiangqing Huang

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available A new and simple method to adjust the scale factor of a magnetic force feedback accelerometer is presented, which could be used in developing a rotating accelerometer gravity gradient instrument (GGI. Adjusting and matching the acceleration-to-current transfer function of the four accelerometers automatically is one of the basic and necessary technologies for rejecting the common mode accelerations in the development of GGI. In order to adjust the scale factor of the magnetic force rebalance accelerometer, an external current is injected and combined with the normal feedback current; they are then applied together to the torque coil of the magnetic actuator. The injected current could be varied proportionally according to the external adjustment needs, and the change in the acceleration-to-current transfer function then realized dynamically. The new adjustment method has the advantages of no extra assembly and ease of operation. Changes in the scale factors range from 33% smaller to 100% larger are verified experimentally by adjusting the different external coefficients. The static noise of the used accelerometer is compared under conditions with and without the injecting current, and the experimental results find no change at the current noise level, which further confirms the validity of the presented method.

  9. A New Scale Factor Adjustment Method for Magnetic Force Feedback Accelerometer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Xiangqing; Deng, Zhongguang; Xie, Yafei; Li, Zhu; Fan, Ji; Tu, Liangcheng

    2017-10-27

    A new and simple method to adjust the scale factor of a magnetic force feedback accelerometer is presented, which could be used in developing a rotating accelerometer gravity gradient instrument (GGI). Adjusting and matching the acceleration-to-current transfer function of the four accelerometers automatically is one of the basic and necessary technologies for rejecting the common mode accelerations in the development of GGI. In order to adjust the scale factor of the magnetic force rebalance accelerometer, an external current is injected and combined with the normal feedback current; they are then applied together to the torque coil of the magnetic actuator. The injected current could be varied proportionally according to the external adjustment needs, and the change in the acceleration-to-current transfer function then realized dynamically. The new adjustment method has the advantages of no extra assembly and ease of operation. Changes in the scale factors range from 33% smaller to 100% larger are verified experimentally by adjusting the different external coefficients. The static noise of the used accelerometer is compared under conditions with and without the injecting current, and the experimental results find no change at the current noise level, which further confirms the validity of the presented method.

  10. Scaling factors for the activity determination of radioactive waste from nuclear power reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Medici, Marcela A.; Piumetti, Elsa H.

    2007-01-01

    Specific information of the total activity and activity concentration of the radionuclides contained is required for conditioning, transporting and final disposal of radioactive waste. Due to the complexity associated to alpha and beta measurements for these emitters it is worldwide used, particularly in the case of heterogeneous radioactive waste, the Scaling Factor Method. As in other cases, inputs of the results of the analysis of waste samples taking from waste streams are necessary. The Scaling Factor Method is based on the determination of averaged correlations between the activity concentrations of Difficult to Measure (DTM) nuclides (i.e. alpha and beta emitters) and the activity concentration of easy to measure nuclides (i.e. strong gamma emitters) called Key Nuclides (KN). In the application of this method two phases may be identified: in the first one the degree of correlation between averaged activities of DTM and a given KN is verified, and specific Scaling Factors are derived for every DTM radionuclide. In the second stage the total activity and the activity concentration of the selected KN is determined in each waste item and, by applying the SFs obtained previously, the activities of DTM nuclides are calculated. It is concluded that this method is appropriate and cost-effective and it is stressed that it is only applicable while the Nuclear Power Reactor is in operation. (author)

  11. Acquired experience on organizing 3D S.UN.COP: international course to support nuclear license by user training in the areas of scaling, uncertainty, and 3D thermal-hydraulics/neutron-kinetics coupled codes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petruzzi, Alessandro; D' Auria, Francesco [University of Pisa, San Piero a Grado (Italy). Nuclear Research Group San Piero a Grado (GRNSPG); Galetti, Regina, E-mail: regina@cnen.gov.b [National Commission for Nuclear Energy (CNEN), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Bajs, Tomislav [University of Zagreb (Croatia). Fac. of Electrical Engineering and Computing. Dept. of Power Systems; Reventos, Francesc [Technical University of Catalonia, Barcelona (Spain). Dept. of Physics and Nuclear Engineering

    2011-07-01

    Thermal-hydraulic system computer codes are extensively used worldwide for analysis of nuclear facilities by utilities, regulatory bodies, nuclear power plant designers, vendors, and research organizations. Computer code user represents a source of uncertainty that may significantly affect the results of system code calculations. Code user training and qualification represent an effective means for reducing the variation of results caused by the application of the codes by different users. This paper describes the experience in applying a systematic approach to training code users who, upon completion of the training, should be able to perform calculations making the best possible use of the capabilities of best estimate codes. In addition, this paper presents the organization and the main features of the 3D S.UN.COP (scaling, uncertainty, and 3D coupled code calculations) seminars during which particular emphasis is given to practical applications in connection with the licensing process of best estimate plus uncertainty methodologies, showing the designer, utility and regulatory approaches. (author)

  12. Acquired experience on organizing 3D S.UN.COP: international course to support nuclear license by user training in the areas of scaling, uncertainty, and 3D thermal-hydraulics/neutron-kinetics coupled codes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petruzzi, Alessandro; D'Auria, Francesco; Galetti, Regina; Bajs, Tomislav; Reventos, Francesc

    2011-01-01

    Thermal-hydraulic system computer codes are extensively used worldwide for analysis of nuclear facilities by utilities, regulatory bodies, nuclear power plant designers, vendors, and research organizations. Computer code user represents a source of uncertainty that may significantly affect the results of system code calculations. Code user training and qualification represent an effective means for reducing the variation of results caused by the application of the codes by different users. This paper describes the experience in applying a systematic approach to training code users who, upon completion of the training, should be able to perform calculations making the best possible use of the capabilities of best estimate codes. In addition, this paper presents the organization and the main features of the 3D S.UN.COP (scaling, uncertainty, and 3D coupled code calculations) seminars during which particular emphasis is given to practical applications in connection with the licensing process of best estimate plus uncertainty methodologies, showing the designer, utility and regulatory approaches. (author)

  13. Evaluation of accuracy and uncertainty of ELISA assays for the determination of interleukin-4, interleukin-5, interferon-gamma and tumor necrosis factor-alpha

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borg, Lone; Kristiansen, Jesper; Christensen, Jytte M

    2002-01-01

    . However, models for establishing the traceability and uncertainty of immunoassay results are lacking. Sandwich enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) were developed for determination of the human cytokines interleukin-4 (IL-4), interleukin-5 (IL-5), interferon-y (IFN-gamma) and tumor necrosis factor-alpha...... (TNF-alpha). The accuracy of each of the assays was evaluated in the ranges of 1-15 microg/l (IL-4), 0.001-1 microg/l (IL-5), 0.5-2.5 microg/l (IFN-T) and 0.14-2.2 microg/l (TNF-alpha). Other evaluated performance characteristics were the limit of detection (LOD), immunological specificity......) of the assessed ELISAs was found to be in the range of 11-18%, except for IL-5 where RSDA increased at decreasing concentrations. The LOD was 0.12 microg/l, 0.0077 microg/l, 0.0069 microg/l and 0.0063 microg/l for IL-4, IL-5, IFN-gamma and TNF-alpha, respectively. Traceability to the WHO IS was established...

  14. Factor Structure, Validity and Reliability of the Revised Version of Skin Picking Scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehdi Rabiei

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: The purpose of this study was to examine the factor structure, validity and reliability of the Skin Picking Scale-Revised Version. Materials and Methods: In this descriptive and validation study, participants were 550 (250 male and 300 female of the University of Isfahan were selected randomly from 15000 students. In order to examine the factor structure of the SPS-R we conducted both exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses and Cronbach's alpha. Results: Convergent validity of SPS-R with YBOCS-BDD, OCI-R and DASS 21-item were r=0.45, r=0.51 and r=0.70 (p<0.001. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses revealed two factors, one assessing impairment and the other symptom severity (4 items each. These factors could determine 58.1% of the variance. The Cronbach's alpha for the two factors were above 0.88. Also, results were shown to possess good psychometric properties, as well as discriminant validity and classification accuracy, in both clinical and community populations. Conclusion: It can be concluded that this instrument is a useful measure for assess skin-picking disorder symptoms in clinical assessment.

  15. Evaluating the Factor Validity of the Children's Organizational Skills Scale in Youth with ADHD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molitor, Stephen J; Langberg, Joshua M; Evans, Steven W; Dvorsky, Melissa R; Bourchtein, Elizaveta; Eddy, Laura D; Smith, Zoe R; Oddo, Lauren E

    2017-06-01

    Children and adolescents with ADHD often have difficulties with organization, time management, and planning (OTMP) skills, and these skills are a common target of intervention. A limited array of tools for measuring these abilities in youth is available, and one of the most prominent measures is the Children's Organizational Skills Scale (COSS). Although the COSS fills an important need, a replication of the COSS factor structure outside of initial measure development has not been conducted in any population. Given that the COSS is frequently used in ADHD research, the current study evaluated the factor structure of the parent-rated COSS in a sample ( N = 619) of adolescents with ADHD. Results indicated that the original factor structure could be replicated, although the use of item parcels appeared to affect model fit statistics. An alternative bi-factor model was also tested that did not require the use of parcels, with results suggesting similar model fit in comparison to the original factor structure. Exploratory validity tests indicated that the domain-general factor of the bi-factor model appears related to broad executive functioning abilities.

  16. Design of optimal input–output scaling factors based fuzzy PSS using bat algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D.K. Sambariya

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In this article, a fuzzy logic based power system stabilizer (FPSS is designed by tuning its input–output scaling factors. Two input signals to FPSS are considered as change of speed and change in power, and the output signal is considered as a correcting voltage signal. The normalizing factors of these signals are considered as the optimization problem with minimization of integral of square error in single-machine and multi-machine power systems. These factors are optimally determined with bat algorithm (BA and considered as scaling factors of FPSS. The performance of power system with such a designed BA based FPSS (BA-FPSS is compared to that of response with FPSS, Harmony Search Algorithm based FPSS (HSA-FPSS and Particle Swarm Optimization based FPSS (PSO-FPSS. The systems considered are single-machine connected to infinite-bus, two-area 4-machine 10-bus and IEEE New England 10-machine 39-bus power systems for evaluating the performance of BA-FPSS. The comparison is carried out in terms of the integral of time-weighted absolute error (ITAE, integral of absolute error (IAE and integral of square error (ISE of speed response for systems with FPSS, HSA-FPSS and BA-FPSS. The superior performance of systems with BA-FPSS is established considering eight plant conditions of each system, which represents the wide range of operating conditions.

  17. Regional-scale calculation of the LS factor using parallel processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Kai; Tang, Guoan; Jiang, Ling; Zhu, A.-Xing; Yang, Jianyi; Song, Xiaodong

    2015-05-01

    With the increase of data resolution and the increasing application of USLE over large areas, the existing serial implementation of algorithms for computing the LS factor is becoming a bottleneck. In this paper, a parallel processing model based on message passing interface (MPI) is presented for the calculation of the LS factor, so that massive datasets at a regional scale can be processed efficiently. The parallel model contains algorithms for calculating flow direction, flow accumulation, drainage network, slope, slope length and the LS factor. According to the existence of data dependence, the algorithms are divided into local algorithms and global algorithms. Parallel strategy are designed according to the algorithm characters including the decomposition method for maintaining the integrity of the results, optimized workflow for reducing the time taken for exporting the unnecessary intermediate data and a buffer-communication-computation strategy for improving the communication efficiency. Experiments on a multi-node system show that the proposed parallel model allows efficient calculation of the LS factor at a regional scale with a massive dataset.

  18. Experimental approach for the uncertainty assessment of 3D complex geometry dimensional measurements using computed tomography at the mm and sub-mm scales

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jiménez, Roberto; Torralba, Marta; Yagüe-Fabra, José A.

    2017-01-01

    The dimensional verification of miniaturized components with 3D complex geometries is particularly challenging. Computed Tomography (CT) can represent a suitable alternative solution to micro metrology tools based on optical and tactile techniques. However, the establishment of CT systems......’ traceability when measuring 3D complex geometries is still an open issue. In this work, an alternative method for the measurement uncertainty assessment of 3D complex geometries by using CT is presented. The method is based on the micro-CT system Maximum Permissible Error (MPE) estimation, determined...... experimentally by using several calibrated reference artefacts. The main advantage of the presented method is that a previous calibration of the component by a more accurate Coordinate Measuring System (CMS) is not needed. In fact, such CMS would still hold all the typical limitations of optical and tactile...

  19. Item-level factor analysis of the Self-Efficacy Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunketorp Käll, Lina

    2014-03-01

    This study explores the internal structure of the Self-Efficacy Scale (SES) using item response analysis. The SES was previously translated into Swedish and modified to encompass all types of pain, not exclusively back pain. Data on perceived self-efficacy in 47 patients with subacute whiplash-associated disorders were derived from a previously conducted randomized-controlled trial. The item-level factor analysis was carried out using a six-step procedure. To further study the item inter-relationships and to determine the underlying structure empirically, the 20 items of the SES were also subjected to principal component analysis with varimax rotation. The analyses showed two underlying factors, named 'social activities' and 'physical activities', with seven items loading on each factor. The remaining six items of the SES appeared to measure somewhat different constructs and need to be analysed further.

  20. Identification of the key ecological factors influencing vegetation degradation in semi-arid agro-pastoral ecotone considering spatial scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Yu; Wang, Qinghui; Fan, Min

    2017-11-01

    When assessing re-vegetation project performance and optimizing land management, identification of the key ecological factors inducing vegetation degradation has crucial implications. Rainfall, temperature, elevation, slope, aspect, land use type, and human disturbance are ecological factors affecting the status of vegetation index. However, at different spatial scales, the key factors may vary. Using Helin County, Inner-Mongolia, China as the study site and combining remote sensing image interpretation, field surveying, and mathematical methods, this study assesses key ecological factors affecting vegetation degradation under different spatial scales in a semi-arid agro-pastoral ecotone. It indicates that the key factors are different at various spatial scales. Elevation, rainfall, and temperature are identified as crucial for all spatial extents. Elevation, rainfall and human disturbance are key factors for small-scale quadrats of 300 m × 300 m and 600 m × 600 m, temperature and land use type are key factors for a medium-scale quadrat of 1 km × 1 km, and rainfall, temperature, and land use are key factors for large-scale quadrats of 2 km × 2 km and 5 km × 5 km. For this region, human disturbance is not the key factor for vegetation degradation across spatial scales. It is necessary to consider spatial scale for the identification of key factors determining vegetation characteristics. The eco-restoration programs at various spatial scales should identify key influencing factors according their scales so as to take effective measurements. The new understanding obtained in this study may help to explore the forces which driving vegetation degradation in the degraded regions in the world.

  1. Formation factor in Bentheimer and Fontainebleau sandstones: Theory compared with pore-scale numerical simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghanbarian, Behzad; Berg, Carl F.

    2017-09-01

    Accurate quantification of formation resistivity factor F (also called formation factor) provides useful insight into connectivity and pore space topology in fully saturated porous media. In particular the formation factor has been extensively used to estimate permeability in reservoir rocks. One of the widely applied models to estimate F is Archie's law (F = ϕ- m in which ϕ is total porosity and m is cementation exponent) that is known to be valid in rocks with negligible clay content, such as clean sandstones. In this study we compare formation factors determined by percolation and effective-medium theories as well as Archie's law with numerical simulations of electrical resistivity on digital rock models. These digital models represent Bentheimer and Fontainebleau sandstones and are derived either by reconstruction or directly from micro-tomographic images. Results show that the universal quadratic power law from percolation theory accurately estimates the calculated formation factor values in network models over the entire range of porosity. However, it crosses over to the linear scaling from the effective-medium approximation at the porosity of 0.75 in grid models. We also show that the effect of critical porosity, disregarded in Archie's law, is nontrivial, and the Archie model inaccurately estimates the formation factor in low-porosity homogeneous sandstones.

  2. The validation of the Polish version of the Posttraumatic Diagnostic Scale and its factor structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wojciech Ł. Dragan

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Background: Posttraumatic Diagnostic Scale (PDS is a self-descriptive measure developed to provide information regarding posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD diagnosis and symptom severity. Objectives: The aim of this article is to report on the validation of the Polish version of PDS and to test its factor structure with reference to two models: an original three-factor model (Reexperiencing, Avoidance, and Arousal and alternative five-factor model (Reexperiencing, Avoidance, Numbing, Dysphoric Arousal, and Anxious Arousal. Method: The validation procedure included three studies conducted on samples of separate populations: university-level students (n=507, individuals who had experienced various traumas (n=320, and treatment-seeking survivors of motor vehicle accidents (MVA (n=302. Various other measures of trauma-related psychopathology were administered to participants, as well as the PTSD module of the Structured Clinical Interview (SCID in the case of MVA patients. Results: PDS showed high internal consistency and test–retest reliability, good diagnostic agreement with SCID, good sensitivity but relatively low specificity. The satisfactory convergent validity was supported by a large number of significant correlations with other measures of trauma-related psychopathology. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA generally confirmed both the three-factor structure and the alternative five-factor structure of the questionnaire. Conclusions: The results show generally good psychometric properties of the Polish version of PDS.

  3. Confirmatory factor analysis of the Drive for Muscularity Scale-S (DMS-S) and Male Body Attitudes Scale-S (MBAS-S) among male university students in Buenos Aires.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Compte, Emilio J; Sepúlveda, Ana R; de Pellegrin, Yolanda; Blanco, Miriam

    2015-06-01

    Several studies have demonstrated that men express body dissatisfaction differently than women. Although specific instruments that address body dissatisfaction in men have been developed, only a few have been validated in Latin-American male populations. The aim of this study was to reassess the factor structure of the Spanish versions of the Drive for Muscularity Scale (DMS-S) and the Male Body Attitudes Scale (MBAS-S) in an Argentinian sample. A cross-sectional study was conducted among 423 male students to examine: the factorial structure (confirmatory factor analysis), the internal consistency reliability, and the concurrent, convergent and discriminant validity of both scales. Results replicated the two factor structures for the DMS-S and MBAS-S. Both scales showed excellent levels of internal consistency, and various measures of construct validity indicated that the DMS-S and MBAS-S were acceptable and valid instruments to assess body dissatisfaction in Argentinian males. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Human Resources Management Policies and Practices Scale (HRMPPS: Exploratory and Confirmatory Factor Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gisela Demo

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Given the strategic relevance of Human Resources Management (HRM in organizations and the lack of scientific instruments to measure employees’ perceptions about policies and practices of HRM, this study aimed to validate the Human Resources Management Policies and Practices Scale (HRMPPS through exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis using the maximum likelihood method. The study has a quantitative design, but also included qualitative analysis required for the development of a scale. Employees from various organizations composed a sample of 632 people. Scale reliability was assessed by Cronbach’s alpha and Jöreskog’s rho. A sixfactor model was generated showing high-reliability and good fit. Construct validity was provided through convergent and discriminant analyses. The factors were consistent with the literature review and explained about 58% of the construct’s total variance. This study contributes to the scientific production in the area of Human Resources Management since HRMPPS can be used not only in relational studies but also as an evaluation instrument by managers who wish to improve their employees’ well-being as well as organizational outcomes.

  5. [Perceived Autonomy in Old Age scale: Factor structure and psychometric properties of the Polish adaptation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroemeke, Aleksandra

    2015-01-01

    Sense of autonomy - the possibility to choose and decide - is one of the markers of positive and active aging. The goal of this study was to examine the Polish adaptation of the Perceived Autonomy in Old Age (PAA) scale and to determine its internal structure and psychometric properties: reliability, as well as construct and discriminant validity. 277 seniors (female=187; male=90), without cognitive function disorders aged 60 to 100 (M=77.4; SD=9.2) took part in the study. Apart from the PAA, the ADL and IADL scales (self-reliance assessment) were used, as well as the Emotional State Questionnaire (a measure for positive and negative emotions) and the WHOQoL-Brief (a measure for health-related quality of life). As a result of an exploratory and confirmation factor analysis a one-factor tool with five items was built. Reliability coefficients of the scale measured with the internal consistency method and test-retest were ≥ 0.80. Positive correlations were found with indicators in the ADL, IADL, as well as in the somatic and psychological domain of life quality, and positive emotions. Negative correlations were found for negative emotions. The obtained results indicated very high reliability and accuracy for the Polish adaptation of the SPA. The tool can be used as a predictor and/or indicator of successful aging and life quality of seniors.

  6. Meteorological and small scale internal ecosystem variability characterize the uncertainty of ecosystem level responses to elevated CO2. Insights from the Duke Forest FACE experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paschalis, A.; Katul, G. G.; Fatichi, S.; Palmroth, S.; Way, D.

    2017-12-01

    One of the open questions in climate change research is the pathway by which elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration impacts the biogeochemical and hydrological cycles at the ecosystem scale. This impact leads to significant changes in long-term carbon stocks and the potential of ecosystems to sequester CO2, partially mitigating anthropogenic emissions. While the significance of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration on instantaneous leaf-level processes such as photosynthesis and transpiration is rarely disputed, its integrated effect at the ecosystem level and at long-time scales remains a subject of debate. This debate has taken on some urgency as illustrated by differences arising between ecosystem modelling studies, and data-model comparisons using Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) sites around the world. Inherent leaf-to-leaf variability in gas exchange rates can generate such inconsistencies. This inherent variability arises from the combined effect of meteorological "temporal" variability and the "spatial" variability of the biochemical parameters regulating vegetation carbon uptake. This combined variability leads to a non-straightforward scaling of ecosystem fluxes from the leaf to ecosystems. To illustrate this scaling behaviour, we used 10 years of leaf gas exchange measurements collected at the Duke Forest FACE experiment. The internal variability of the ecosystem parameters are first quantified and then combined with three different leaf-scale stomatal conductance models and an ecosystem model. The main results are: (a) Variability of the leaf level fluxes is dependent on both the meteorological drivers and differences in leaf age, position within the canopy, nitrogen and CO2 fertilization, which can be accommodated in model parameters; (b) Meteorological variability plays the dominant role at short temporal scales while parameter variability is significant at longer temporal scales. (c) Leaf level results do not necessarily translate to similar ecosystem

  7. Uncertainty and measurement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Landsberg, P.T.

    1990-01-01

    This paper explores how the quantum mechanics uncertainty relation can be considered to result from measurements. A distinction is drawn between the uncertainties obtained by scrutinising experiments and the standard deviation type of uncertainty definition used in quantum formalism. (UK)

  8. Galaxy as fundamental calibrator of the extragalactic distance scale. I. The basic scale factors of the galaxy and two kinematic tests of the long and short distance scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    de Vaucouleurs, G.

    1983-01-01

    A new version of the oldest approach to estimating the distances of galaxies (direct comparison with our Galaxy) is proposed to relate the extragalactic distance scale to the basic metric, photometric, and kinematic scale factors of the Galaxy. These include the galactocentric distance of the Sun, R/sub sun/, the total magnitude of the Galaxy, M 0 /sub T/, and its spheroidal component, M 0 /sub I/, the galactic rotation velocity of the local standard of rest, V(R/sub sun/), the central velocity dispersion sigma/sub ν/(0) of the spheroidal component, and related parameters. The following ''most probable'' values and their mean errors are adopted from a variety of recent determinations: morphological type of galaxy, SABX(rXs)bc(T = 4 +- 0.5), R/sub sun/ = 8.5 +- 0.5 kpc, M 0 /sub T/(B) = -20.2 +- 0.15, (B-V) 0 /sub T/ = 0.53 +- 0.04, M 0 /sub I/(B) = -18.2 +- 0.3, (B-V) 0 /sub I/ = 0.65 +- 0.05, V(R/sub sun/) = 220 +- 15 km s -1 , sigma/sub ν/(0) = 130 +- 7 km s -1 . 1. The zero points of the Tully-Fisher (T-F) relations, -M 0 /sub T/(B) = a(B)+5(log V/sub M/ -2.2), in the B/sub T/ system, and -M/sup c/(H) = a(H)+10(log W 20 -2.5), in the H/sub -0.5/ system, are determined in terms of the galactocentric distance of the Sun R/sub sun/, and the galactic rotation velocity of the local standard of rest, V(R/sub sun/)equivalentV 0 roughly-equalV/sub M/, or the corresponding line width W 20 . The galactic zero point a(B) agrees within 0.1 mag with that (19.4 +- 0.15) previously derived on the short scale from 11 nearby calibrating galaxies

  9. Large-scale hydrological modeling for calculating water stress indices: implications of improved spatiotemporal resolution, surface-groundwater differentiation, and uncertainty characterization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scherer, Laura; Venkatesh, Aranya; Karuppiah, Ramkumar; Pfister, Stephan

    2015-04-21

    Physical water scarcities can be described by water stress indices. These are often determined at an annual scale and a watershed level; however, such scales mask seasonal fluctuations and spatial heterogeneity within a watershed. In order to account for this level of detail, first and foremost, water availability estimates must be improved and refined. State-of-the-art global hydrological models such as WaterGAP and UNH/GRDC have previously been unable to reliably reflect water availability at the subbasin scale. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was tested as an alternative to global models, using the case study of the Mississippi watershed. While SWAT clearly outperformed the global models at the scale of a large watershed, it was judged to be unsuitable for global scale simulations due to the high calibration efforts required. The results obtained in this study show that global assessments miss out on key aspects related to upstream/downstream relations and monthly fluctuations, which are important both for the characterization of water scarcity in the Mississippi watershed and for water footprints. Especially in arid regions, where scarcity is high, these models provide unsatisfying results.

  10. How to ask about patient satisfaction? The visual analogue scale is less vulnerable to confounding factors and ceiling effect than a symmetric Likert scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voutilainen, Ari; Pitkäaho, Taina; Kvist, Tarja; Vehviläinen-Julkunen, Katri

    2016-04-01

    To study the effects of scale type (visual analogue scale vs. Likert), item order (systematic vs. random), item non-response and patient-related characteristics (age, gender, subjective health, need for assistance with filling out the questionnaire and length of stay) on the results of patient satisfaction surveys. Although patient satisfaction is one of the most intensely studied issues in the health sciences, research information about the effects of possible instrument-related confounding factors on patient satisfaction surveys is scant. A quasi-experimental design was employed. A non-randomized sample of 150 surgical patients was gathered to minimize possible alterations in care quality. Data were collected in May-September 2014 from one tertiary hospital in Finland using the Revised Humane Caring Scale instrument. New versions of the instrument were created for the present purposes. In these versions, items were either in a visual analogue format or Likert-scaled, in systematic or random order. The data were analysed using an analysis of covariance and a paired samples t-test. The visual analogue scale items were less vulnerable to bias from confounding factors than were the Likert-scaled items. The visual analogue scale also avoided the ceiling effect better than Likert and the time needed to complete the visual analogue scale questionnaire was 28% shorter than that needed to complete the Likert-scaled questionnaire. The present results supported the use of visual analogue scale rather than Likert scaling in patient satisfaction surveys and stressed the need to account for as many potential confounding factors as possible. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Factor structure and validity of the Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scale-21 in Swedish translation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfonsson, S; Wallin, E; Maathz, P

    2017-03-01

    WHAT IS KNOWN ON THE SUBJECT?: The Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scale-21 (DASS-21) is a widely used measurement for psychological symptoms and distress. Some previous studies have shown that the DASS-21 can accurately measure symptoms of anxiety, depression and stress, while other studies have indicated that the DASS-21 mainly measures overall distress. The factor structure of the DASS-21 is important and debated since if affects interpretations of findings. WHAT DOES THIS PAPER ADD TO EXISTING KNOWLEDGE?: In this study, the DASS-21 was translated into Swedish and evaluated in three diverse samples. The DASS-21 subscales of Depression and Anxiety correlated significantly with corresponding criteria instruments. The DASS-21 Stress subscale showed more diverse associations with psychological distress. The analyses supported a bifactor model of the DASS-21 with three specific factors of depression, anxiety and stress as well as a general distress factor. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE?: The results show that the DASS-21 may be used to measure unique symptoms of depression, anxiety and, with some caveat, stress as well as overall psychological distress. This study confirms that the DASS-21 is theoretically sound instrument that is feasible for both research and clinical practice. The DASS-21 can be an accessible tool for screening and evaluation in first-line mental health services. Introduction There is a constant need for theoretically sound and valid self-report instruments for measuring psychological distress. Previous studies have shown that the Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scale-21 (DASS-21) is theoretically sound, but there have been some inconsistent results regarding its factor structure. Aims The aim of the present study was to investigate and elucidate the factor structure and convergent validity of the DASS-21. Methods A total of 624 participants recruited from student, primary care and psychotherapy populations. The factor structure of the DASS

  12. Non-climatic factors and long-term, continental-scale changes in seasonally frozen ground

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiklomanov, Nikolay I.

    2012-03-01

    ). In their recent paper entitled 'An observational 71-year history of seasonally frozen ground changes in Eurasian high latitudes', Frauenfeld and Zhang (2011) provided detailed analysis of soil temperature data to assess 1930-2000 trends in seasonal freezing depth. The data were obtained from 387 Soviet non-permafrost meteorological stations. The authors performed systematic, quality-controlled, integrative analysis over the entire former Soviet Union domain. The long-term changes in depth of seasonal freezing were discussed in relation to such forcing variables as air temperature, degree days of freezing/thawing, snow depth and summer precipitation as well as modes of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The spatially average approach adopted for the study provides a generalized continental-scale trend. The study greatly improves, expands and extends previous 1956-90 analysis of the ground thermal regime over the Eurasian high latitudes (Frauenfeld et al 2004). Although the work of Frauenfeld and Zhang (2011) is the most comprehensive assessment of the continental-scale long-term trends in seasonal freezing available to date, more detailed analysis is needed to determine the effect of climate change on seasonally frozen ground. It should be noted that, in addition to the variables considered for analysis, other non-climatic factors affect the depth of freezing propagation. Unlike the surface, which is influenced by the climate directly, the ground even at shallow depth receives a climatic signal that is substantially modified by edaphic processes, contributing to highly localized thermal sensitivities of the ground to climatic forcing. Subsurface properties, soil moisture, and snow and vegetation covers influence the depth of freezing. Topography also plays an important role in establishing the ground thermal regime. It is an important determinant of the amount of heat received by the ground surface, affects the distribution of snow and vegetation, and influences the

  13. Shallow water table effects on water, sediment, and pesticide transport in vegetative filter strips - Part 2: model coupling, application, factor importance, and uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauvernet, Claire; Muñoz-Carpena, Rafael

    2018-01-01

    Vegetative filter strips are often used for protecting surface waters from pollution transferred by surface runoff in agricultural watersheds. In Europe, they are often prescribed along the stream banks, where a seasonal shallow water table (WT) could decrease the buffer zone efficiency. In spite of this potentially important effect, there are no systematic experimental or theoretical studies on the effect of this soil boundary condition on the VFS efficiency. In the companion paper (Muñoz-Carpena et al., 2018), we developed a physically based numerical algorithm (SWINGO) that allows the representation of soil infiltration with a shallow water table. Here we present the dynamic coupling of SWINGO with VFSMOD, an overland flow and transport mathematical model to study the WT influence on VFS efficiency in terms of reductions of overland flow, sediment, and pesticide transport. This new version of VFSMOD was applied to two contrasted benchmark field studies in France (sandy-loam soil in a Mediterranean semicontinental climate, and silty clay in a temperate oceanic climate), where limited testing of the model with field data on one of the sites showed promising results. The application showed that for the conditions of the studies, VFS efficiency decreases markedly when the water table is 0 to 1.5 m from the surface. In order to evaluate the relative importance of WT among other input factors controlling VFS efficiency, global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis (GSA) was applied on the benchmark studies. The most important factors found for VFS overland flow reduction were saturated hydraulic conductivity and WT depth, added to sediment characteristics and VFS dimensions for sediment and pesticide reductions. The relative importance of WT varied as a function of soil type (most important at the silty-clay soil) and hydraulic loading (rainfall + incoming runoff) at each site. The presence of WT introduced more complex responses dominated by strong interactions in

  14. Shallow water table effects on water, sediment, and pesticide transport in vegetative filter strips – Part 2: model coupling, application, factor importance, and uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Lauvernet

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Vegetative filter strips are often used for protecting surface waters from pollution transferred by surface runoff in agricultural watersheds. In Europe, they are often prescribed along the stream banks, where a seasonal shallow water table (WT could decrease the buffer zone efficiency. In spite of this potentially important effect, there are no systematic experimental or theoretical studies on the effect of this soil boundary condition on the VFS efficiency. In the companion paper (Muñoz-Carpena et al., 2018, we developed a physically based numerical algorithm (SWINGO that allows the representation of soil infiltration with a shallow water table. Here we present the dynamic coupling of SWINGO with VFSMOD, an overland flow and transport mathematical model to study the WT influence on VFS efficiency in terms of reductions of overland flow, sediment, and pesticide transport. This new version of VFSMOD was applied to two contrasted benchmark field studies in France (sandy-loam soil in a Mediterranean semicontinental climate, and silty clay in a temperate oceanic climate, where limited testing of the model with field data on one of the sites showed promising results. The application showed that for the conditions of the studies, VFS efficiency decreases markedly when the water table is 0 to 1.5 m from the surface. In order to evaluate the relative importance of WT among other input factors controlling VFS efficiency, global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis (GSA was applied on the benchmark studies. The most important factors found for VFS overland flow reduction were saturated hydraulic conductivity and WT depth, added to sediment characteristics and VFS dimensions for sediment and pesticide reductions. The relative importance of WT varied as a function of soil type (most important at the silty-clay soil and hydraulic loading (rainfall + incoming runoff at each site. The presence of WT introduced more complex responses dominated by strong

  15. Factor structure of the Childhood Autism Rating Scale as per DSM-5.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Eun-Young; Kim, Joungmin

    2016-02-01

    The DSM-5 recently proposed new diagnostic criteria for autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Although many new or updated tools have been developed since the DSM-IV was published in 1994, the Childhood Autism Rating Scale (CARS) has been used consistently in ASD diagnosis and research due to its technical adequacy, cost-effectiveness, and practicality. Additionally, items in the CARS did not alter following the release of the revised DSM-IV because the CARS factor structure was found to be consistent with the revised criteria after factor analysis. For that reason, in this study confirmatory factor analysis was used to identify the factor structure of the CARS. Participants (n = 150) consisted of children with an ASD diagnosis or who met the criteria for broader autism or emotional/behavior disorder with comorbid disorders such as attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, bipolar disorder, intellectual or developmental disabilities. Previous studies used one-, two-, and four-factor models, all of which we examined to confirm the best-fit model on confirmatory factor analysis. Appropriate comparative fit indices and root mean square errors were obtained for all four models. The two-factor model, based on DSM-5 criteria, was the most valid and reliable. The inter-item consistency of the CARS was 0.926 and demonstrated adequate reliability, thereby supporting the validity and reliability of the two-factor model of CARS. Although CARS was developed prior to the introduction of DSM-5, its psychometric properties, conceptual relevance, and flexible administration procedures support its continued role as a screening device in the diagnostic decision-making process. © 2015 Japan Pediatric Society.

  16. Depersonalization: An exploratory factor analysis of the Italian version of the Cambridge Depersonalization Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fagioli, F; Telesforo, L; Dell'Erba, A; Consolazione, M; Migliorini, V; Patanè, M; Boldrini, T; Graziani, R; Nicoletti, F; Fiori-Nastro, P

    2015-07-01

    "Depersonalization" (DP) is a common symptom in the general population and psychiatric patients (Michal et al., 2011 [1]). DP is characterized by an alteration in the experience of the self, so that one feels detached from his or her own mental processes or body (or from the world), feeling as being an outside observer of his or her own self, and loosing the experience of unity and identity (American Psychiatric Association, 2013 [2]). We performed an exploratory factor analysis of the Cambridge Depersonalization Scale Italian version (CDS-IV). We enrolled 149 inpatients and outpatients of psychiatric services located in two Italian regions, Lazio and Campania. Patients were aged between 15 and 65 and diagnosed with schizophrenic, depressive or anxiety disorders. Four factors accounted for 97.4% of the variance. Factor 1 (10, 24, 26, 1, 13, 23, 9, 2, 5, and 11), called "Detachment from the Self", captures experiences of detachment from actions and thoughts. Factor 2 (19, 20, 27, 3, 12, 23, 22, and 11), called "Anomalous bodily experiences", refers to unusual bodily experiences. Factor 3 (7, 28, 25, 6, 9, and 2), named "Numbing", describes the dampening of affects. Factor 4 (14, 17, and 16), named "Temporal blunting", refers to the subjective experience of time. We did not find any specific factor that refers to derealization; this suggests that the constructs of depersonalization/derealization (DP/DR) were strongly related to each other. Our results show that the constructs of DP/DR subsume several psychopathological dimensions; moreover, the above mentioned factors were broadly consistent with prior literature. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  17. The Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale: a bifactor answer to a two-factor question?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKay, Michael T; Boduszek, Daniel; Harvey, Séamus A

    2014-01-01

    Despite its long-standing and widespread use, disagreement remains regarding the structure of the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale (RSES). In particular, concern remains regarding the degree to which the scale assesses self-esteem as a unidimensional or multidimensional (positive and negative self-esteem) construct. Using a sample of 3,862 high school students in the United Kingdom, 4 models were tested: (a) a unidimensional model, (b) a correlated 2-factor model in which the 2 latent variables are represented by positive and negative self-esteem, (c) a hierarchical model, and (d) a bifactor model. The totality of results including item loadings, goodness-of-fit indexes, reliability estimates, and correlations with self-efficacy measures all supported the bifactor model, suggesting that the 2 hypothesized factors are better understood as "grouping" factors rather than as representative of latent constructs. Accordingly, this study supports the unidimensionality of the RSES and the scoring of all 10 items to produce a global self-esteem score.

  18. [Development of a scale for work motivation of home care workers and influencing factors].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakatani, Yasuhisa; Sugiura, Keiko; Mikami, Hiroshi

    2009-02-01

    To develop a scale for home care workers focusing on work motivation and to determine influential underlying factors. This study was an anonymous mailed survey of home care workers who provided home help services in July 2007. We collected information in the following areas: demographics of home care workers and care-recipients, burnout, stress, job satisfaction, life satisfaction, and self-esteem (SE). Hierarchical regression analysis was performed in order to identify factors related to work motivation. Construct validity was analyzed by factor analysis. Two subscales were obtained by the analysis and designated as "positive appraisal of the current state" (9 items) and "uplift of morale" (3 items). Content validity was analyzed by good-poor and item-total, and all correlations were strongly positive. Reliability was analyzed by internal consistency. Cronbach's ? values were 0.94 and 0.77, respectively. Concurrent validity was analyzed by correlation coefficient and a significant negative correlation was seen between the two subscales and burnout (r = -0.23--0.50), while positive correlations were noted for job or life satisfaction (r= 0.24-0.49). The positive influential factors on "positive appraisal of the current state" were satisfaction in 1) relation to care-recipients, 2) work environment for skill improvement and 3) the wages. The positive influential factors on "uplift of morale" were satisfaction with relation to care-recipients and their own life. This scale has sufficient reliability and validity. "Positive appraisal of the current state" and "uplift of morale" were confirmed as appropriate work motivation subscales for home care workers. Thus, support to augment job satisfaction with the work environment and wages appears to enhance "positive appraisal of the current state" and support to augment life satisfaction appears to enhance "uplift of morale".

  19. Depression Anxiety Stress Scales (DASS-21): Factor Structure in Traumatic Brain Injury Rehabilitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randall, Diane; Thomas, Matt; Whiting, Diane; McGrath, Andrew

    To confirm the construct validity of the Depression Anxiety Stress Scales-21 (DASS-21) by investigating the fit of published factor structures in a sample of adults with moderate to severe traumatic brain injury (posttraumatic amnesia > 24 hours). Archival data from 504 patient records at the Brain Injury Rehabilitation Unit at Liverpool Hospital, Australia. Participants were aged between 16 and 71 years and were engaged in a specialist rehabilitation program. The DASS-21. Two of the 6 models had adequate fit using structural equation modeling. The data best fit Henry and Crawford's quadripartite model, which comprised a Depression, Anxiety and Stress factor, as well as a General Distress factor. The data also adequately fit Lovibond and Lovibond's original 3-factor model, and the internal consistencies of each factor were very good (α = 0.82-0.90). This study confirms the structure and construct validity of the DASS-21 and provides support for its use as a screening tool in traumatic brain injury rehabilitation.

  20. Factor Structure of Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale in Malaysian patients with coronary artery disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaur, Satpal; Zainal, Nor Zuraida; Low, Wah Yun; Ramasamy, Ravindran; Sidhu, Jaideep Singh

    2015-05-01

    The Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) is a common screening instrument used to determine the levels of anxiety and depression experienced by a patient and has been extensively used in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). This study aimed to establish the factor structure of HADS in a Malaysian sample of 189 patients with CAD. Factor analysis of HADS using principal component analysis with varimax rotation yielded 3 factors. Confirmatory factor analysis supported the use of HADS in assessing 3 distinct dimensions of psychological distress--namely, anxiety, anhedonia, and psychomotor retardation. The HADS showed good internal consistency and was found to be a valid measure of psychological distress among Malaysian patients with CAD. However, low mean scores on the original 2 factors--that is, anxiety and depression--and also on the 2 depression subscales--anhedonia and psychomotor retardation--suggests that the recommended cutoff score to screen for psychological distress among CAD patients be reevaluated. Further research to determine the generalizability and consistency for the tridimensional structure of the HADS in Malaysia is recommended. © 2014 APJPH.

  1. Development of new geomagnetic storm ground response scaling factors for utilization in hazard assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulkkinen, A. A.; Bernabeu, E.; Weigel, R. S.; Kelbert, A.; Rigler, E. J.; Bedrosian, P.; Love, J. J.

    2017-12-01

    Development of realistic storm scenarios that can be played through the exposed systems is one of the key requirements for carrying out quantitative space weather hazards assessments. In the geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) and power grids context, these scenarios have to quantify the spatiotemporal evolution of the geoelectric field that drives the potentially hazardous currents in the system. In response to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) order 779, a team of scientists and engineers that worked under the auspices of North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), has developed extreme geomagnetic storm and geoelectric field benchmark(s) that use various scaling factors that account for geomagnetic latitude and ground structure of the locations of interest. These benchmarks, together with the information generated in the National Space Weather Action Plan, are the foundation for the hazards assessments that the industry will be carrying out in response to the FERC order and under the auspices of the National Science and Technology Council. While the scaling factors developed in the past work were based on the best available information, there is now significant new information available for parts of the U.S. pertaining to the ground response to external geomagnetic field excitation. The significant new information includes the results magnetotelluric surveys that have been conducted over the past few years across the contiguous US and results from previous surveys that have been made available in a combined online database. In this paper, we distill this new information in the framework of the NERC benchmark and in terms of updated ground response scaling factors thereby allowing straightforward utilization in the hazard assessments. We also outline the path forward for improving the overall extreme event benchmark scenario(s) including generalization of the storm waveforms and geoelectric field spatial patterns.

  2. Balancing uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horton, S.G.

    1984-01-01

    The author presents a system planning perspective on how Ontario Hydro is viewing the future, and where nuclear power fits into that future. Before the 1980s Ontario experienced a steady seven percent per year growth in power demand. Shifting patterns of energy demand have made planning much more difficult. In the early 80s growth in demand fell short of predictions. It is hard to tell what level of demand to plan for in the future. With respect to any energy option, a utility planner or board of directors would want to know when it will be delivered, what it will cost when it is delivered, what it will cost to operate, how long it will last as an economic energy producer, and how all of these factors will be affected by future changes. Ontario Hydro's studies show that nuclear power continues to be the preferred option for large blocks of base load capacity. By 1996 Ontario Hydro will have saved about 10 billion 1983 dollars by using nuclear power. The utility continues to study both sides of the supply-demand equation, looking at conservation as an alternative to constructing new generating facilities and attempting to become aware of shifts in demand trends as soon as they happen

  3. Cosmological models with a hybrid scale factor in an extended gravity theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, B.; Tripathy, S. K.; Tarai, Sankarsan

    2018-03-01

    A general formalism to investigate Bianchi type V Ih universes is developed in an extended theory of gravity. A minimally coupled geometry and matter field is considered with a rescaled function of f(R,T) substituted in place of the Ricci scalar R in the geometrical action. Dynamical aspects of the models are discussed by using a hybrid scale factor (HSF) that behaves as power law in an initial epoch and as an exponential form at late epoch. The power law behavior and the exponential behavior appear as two extreme cases of the present model.

  4. Uncertainties in Nuclear Proliferation Modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Chul Min; Yim, Man-Sung; Park, Hyeon Seok

    2015-01-01

    There have been various efforts in the research community to understand the determinants of nuclear proliferation and develop quantitative tools to predict nuclear proliferation events. Such systematic approaches have shown the possibility to provide warning for the international community to prevent nuclear proliferation activities. However, there are still large debates for the robustness of the actual effect of determinants and projection results. Some studies have shown that several factors can cause uncertainties in previous quantitative nuclear proliferation modeling works. This paper analyzes the uncertainties in the past approaches and suggests future works in the view of proliferation history, analysis methods, and variable selection. The research community still lacks the knowledge for the source of uncertainty in current models. Fundamental problems in modeling will remain even other advanced modeling method is developed. Before starting to develop fancy model based on the time dependent proliferation determinants' hypothesis, using graph theory, etc., it is important to analyze the uncertainty of current model to solve the fundamental problems of nuclear proliferation modeling. The uncertainty from different proliferation history coding is small. Serious problems are from limited analysis methods and correlation among the variables. Problems in regression analysis and survival analysis cause huge uncertainties when using the same dataset, which decreases the robustness of the result. Inaccurate variables for nuclear proliferation also increase the uncertainty. To overcome these problems, further quantitative research should focus on analyzing the knowledge suggested on the qualitative nuclear proliferation studies

  5. Uncertainties in climate change scenarios for the Czech Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dubrovský, Martin; Nemešová, Ivana; Kalvová, J.

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 29, - (2005), s. 139-156 ISSN 0936-577X R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA521/02/0827; GA MŽP(CZ) SM/640/18/03 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : Climate change scenarios * Uncertainty analysis * Global climate models * Pattern scaling Subject RIV: GC - Agronomy Impact factor: 1.358, year: 2005

  6. Assessing Power System Stability Following Load Changes and Considering Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. V. Ngo

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available An increase in load capacity during the operation of a power system usually causes voltage drop and leads to system instability, so it is necessary to monitor the effect of load changes. This article presents a method of assessing the power system stability according to the load node capacity considering uncertainty factors in the system. The proposed approach can be applied to large-scale power systems for voltage stability assessment in real-time.

  7. Scaling law systematics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pfirsch, D.; Duechs, D.F.

    1985-01-01

    A number of statistical implications of empirical scaling laws in form of power products obtained by linear regression are analysed. The sensitivity of the error against a change of exponents is described by a sensitivity factor and the uncertainty of predictions by a ''range of predictions factor''. Inner relations in the statistical material is discussed, as well as the consequences of discarding variables.A recipe is given for the computations to be done. The whole is exemplified by considering scaling laws for the electron energy confinement time of ohmically heated tokamak plasmas. (author)

  8. Evaluation of uncertainties in MUF for a LWR fuel fabrication plant. Pt.2 - Pt.4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mennerdahl, D.

    1984-09-01

    MUF (Material Unaccounted For) is a parameter defined as the estimated loss of materials during a certain period of time. A suitable method for uncertainty and bias estimations has been developed. The method was specifically adjusted for a facility like the ASEA-ATOM fuel fabrication plant. Operations that are expected to contribute to the uncertainties have been compiled. Information that is required for the application of the developed method is described. Proposals for simplification of the required information without losing the accuracy are suggested. ASEA-ATOM had earlier determined uncertainty data for the scales that are used for nuclear materials. The statistical uncertainties included random errors, short-term and long-term systematic errors. Information for the determination of biases was also determined (constants and formulas). The method proposed by ASEA-ATOM for the determination of uncertainties due to the scales is compatible with the method proposed in this report. For other operations than weighing, the information from ASEA-ATOM is limited. Such operations are completely dominating the total uncertainty in MUF. Examples of calculations of uncertainties and bias are given for uranium oxide powders in large containers. Examples emphasize the differences between various statistical errors (random and systematic errors) and biases (known errors). The importance of correlations between different items in the inventories is explained. A specific correlation of great importance is the use of nominal factors (uranium concentration). A portable personal computer can be used to determine uncertainties in MUF. (author)

  9. Determinants of vegetation distribution at continental scale. The contribution of natural and anthropogenic factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Greve, Michelle; Svenning, J.-C.; Lykke, Anne Mette

    2011-01-01

    It has long been debated what determines distribution of vegetation types, though this has rarely been tested at continental scale. We thus aimed to determine which vegetation types are most accurately predicted by natural environmental factors, and which of these factors best predict current veg...... was also assessed, and found to be of some importance for most vegetation types. We conclude that, in addition to including environmental variables in predicting vegetation distribution, it is essential that human impact be considered, also in future climate change scenarios....... vegetation distribution across Africa. Vegetation types were extracted from the Global Land Cover Map for the year 2000, and the distribution of vegetation types modelled in terms of climate, soil and topography. Annual precipitation was the best predictor of the distribution of all vegetation types...

  10. The uncertainties in estimating measurement uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, J.P.; Shull, A.H.

    1994-01-01

    All measurements include some error. Whether measurements are used for accountability, environmental programs or process support, they are of little value unless accompanied by an estimate of the measurements uncertainty. This fact is often overlooked by the individuals who need measurements to make decisions. This paper will discuss the concepts of measurement, measurements errors (accuracy or bias and precision or random error), physical and error models, measurement control programs, examples of measurement uncertainty, and uncertainty as related to measurement quality. Measurements are comparisons of unknowns to knowns, estimates of some true value plus uncertainty; and are no better than the standards to which they are compared. Direct comparisons of unknowns that match the composition of known standards will normally have small uncertainties. In the real world, measurements usually involve indirect comparisons of significantly different materials (e.g., measuring a physical property of a chemical element in a sample having a matrix that is significantly different from calibration standards matrix). Consequently, there are many sources of error involved in measurement processes that can affect the quality of a measurement and its associated uncertainty. How the uncertainty estimates are determined and what they mean is as important as the measurement. The process of calculating the uncertainty of a measurement itself has uncertainties that must be handled correctly. Examples of chemistry laboratory measurement will be reviewed in this report and recommendations made for improving measurement uncertainties

  11. Modeling the Travel Behavior Impacts of Micro-Scale Land Use and Socio-Economic Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Houshmand Ebrahimpour Masoumi

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The effects of neighborhood-level land use characteristics on urban travel behavior of Iranian cities are under-researched. The present paper examines such influences in a microscopic scale. In this study the role of socio-economic factors is also studies and compared to that of urban form. Two case-study neighborhoods in west of Tehran are selected and considered, first of which is a centralized and compact neighborhood and the other is a sprawled and centerless one. A Multinomial Logit Regression model is developed to consider the effects of socio-economic and land use factors on urban travel pattern. In addition, to consider the effective factors, cross-sectional comparison between the influences of local accessibility and attractiveness of the neighborhood centers of the two case-study areas are undertaken. Also the causality relationships are considered according to the findings of the survey. The findings indicate significant effects of age and household income as socio-economic factors on transportation mode choice in neighborhoods with central structure. One the other hand, no meaningful association between socio-economic or land use variables are resulted by the model for the sprawled case. The most effective land use concept in micro-scale is considered to be satisfaction of entertainment facilities of the neighborhood. Also the descriptive findings show that the centralized neighborhood that gives more local accessibility to shops and retail generates less shopping trips. In considering the causal relations, the study shows that providing neighborhood infrastructures that increase or ease the accessibility to neighborhood amenities can lead to higher shares of sustainable transportation modes like walking, biking, or public transportation use.

  12. Subscales of the Barratt Impulsiveness Scale differentially relate to the Big Five factors of personality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lange, Florian; Wagner, Adina; Müller, Astrid; Eggert, Frank

    2017-06-01

    The place of impulsiveness in multidimensional personality frameworks is still unclear. In particular, no consensus has yet been reached with regard to the relation of impulsiveness to Neuroticism and Extraversion. We aim to contribute to a clearer understanding of these relationships by accounting for the multidimensional structure of impulsiveness. In three independent studies, we related the subscales of the Barratt Impulsiveness Scale (BIS) to the Big Five factors of personality. Study 1 investigated the associations between the BIS subscales and the Big Five factors as measured by the NEO Five-Factor Inventory (NEO-FFI) in a student sample (N = 113). Selective positive correlations emerged between motor impulsiveness and Extraversion and between attentional impulsiveness and Neuroticism. This pattern of results was replicated in Study 2 (N = 132) using a 10-item short version of the Big Five Inventory. In Study 3, we analyzed BIS and NEO-FFI data obtained from a sample of patients with pathological buying (N = 68). In these patients, the relationship between motor impulsiveness and Extraversion was significantly weakened when compared to the non-clinical samples. At the same time, the relationship between attentional impulsiveness and Neuroticism was substantially stronger in the clinical sample. Our studies highlight the utility of the BIS subscales for clarifying the relationship between impulsiveness and the Big Five personality factors. We conclude that impulsiveness might occupy multiple places in multidimensional personality frameworks, which need to be specified to improve the interpretability of impulsiveness scales. © 2017 Scandinavian Psychological Associations and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Needs of the CSAU uncertainty method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prosek, A.; Mavko, B.

    2000-01-01

    The use of best estimate codes for safety analysis requires quantification of the uncertainties. These uncertainties are inherently linked to the chosen safety analysis methodology. Worldwide, various methods were proposed for this quantification. The purpose of this paper was to identify the needs of the Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty (CSAU) methodology and then to answer the needs. The specific procedural steps were combined from other methods for uncertainty evaluation and new tools and procedures were proposed. The uncertainty analysis approach and tools were then utilized for confirmatory study. The uncertainty was quantified for the RELAP5/MOD3.2 thermalhydraulic computer code. The results of the adapted CSAU approach to the small-break loss-of-coolant accident (SB LOCA) show that the adapted CSAU can be used for any thermal-hydraulic safety analysis with uncertainty evaluation. However, it was indicated that there are still some limitations in the CSAU approach that need to be resolved. (author)

  14. Factor Analysis of the Community Balance and Mobility Scale in Individuals with Knee Osteoarthritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takacs, Judit; Krowchuk, Natasha M; Goldsmith, Charles H; Hunt, Michael A

    2017-10-01

    The clinical assessment of balance is an important first step in characterizing the risk of falls. The Community Balance and Mobility Scale (CB&M) is a test of balance and mobility that was designed to assess performance on advanced tasks necessary for independence in the community. However, other factors that can affect balancing ability may also be present during performance of the real-world tasks on the CB&M. It is important for clinicians to understand fully what other modifiable factors the CB&M may encompass. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the underlying constructs in the CB&M in individuals with knee osteoarthritis (OA). This was an observational study, with a single testing session. Participants with knee OA aged 50 years and older completed the CB&M, a clinical test of balance and mobility. Confirmatory factor analysis was then used to examine whether the tasks on the CB&M measure distinct factors. Three a priori theory-driven models with three (strength, balance, mobility), four (range of motion added) and six (pain and fear added) constructs were evaluated using multiple fit indices. A total of 131 participants (mean [SD] age 66.3 [8.5] years, BMI 27.3 [5.2] kg m -2 ) participated. A three-factor model in which all tasks loaded on these three factors explained 65% of the variance and yielded the most optimal model, as determined using scree plots, chi-squared values and explained variance. The first factor accounted for 49% of the variance and was interpreted as lower limb muscle strength. The second and third factors were interpreted as mobility and balance, respectively. The CB&M demonstrated the measurement of three distinct factors, interpreted as lower limb strength, balance and mobility, supporting the use of the CB&M with people with knee OA for evaluation of these important factors in falls risk and functional mobility. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. Benchmarking and application of the state-of-the-art uncertainty analysis methods XSUSA and SHARK-X

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aures, A.; Bostelmann, F.; Hursin, M.; Leray, O.

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Application of the uncertainty analysis methods XSUSA and SHARK-X. • Propagation of nuclear data uncertainty through PWR pin cell depletion calculation. • Uncertainty quantification of eigenvalue, nuclide densities and Doppler coefficient. • Top contributor to overall output uncertainty by sensitivity analysis. • Comparison with SAMPLER and TSUNAMI of the SCALE code package. - Abstract: This study presents collaborative work performed between GRS and PSI on benchmarking and application of the state-of-the-art uncertainty analysis methods XSUSA and SHARK-X. Applied to a PWR pin cell depletion calculation, both methods propagate input uncertainty from nuclear data to output uncertainty. The uncertainty of the multiplication factors, nuclide densities, and fuel temperature coefficients derived by both methods are compared at various burnup steps. Comparisons of these quantities are furthermore performed with the SAMPLER module of SCALE 6.2. The perturbation theory based TSUNAMI module of both SCALE 6.1 and SCALE 6.2 is additionally applied for comparisons of the reactivity coefficient.

  16. Factor structure and gender stability in the multidimensional condom attitudes scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starosta, Amy J; Berghoff, Christopher R; Earleywine, Mitch

    2015-06-01

    Sexually transmitted infections continue to trouble the United States and can be attenuated through increased condom use. Attitudes about condoms are an important multidimensional factor that can affect sexual health choices and have been successfully measured using the Multidimensional Condom Attitudes Scale (MCAS). Such attitudes have the potential to vary between men and women, yet little work has been undertaken to identify if the MCAS accurately captures attitudes without being influenced by underlying gender biases. We examined the factor structure and gender invariance on the MCAS using confirmatory factor analysis and item response theory, within-subscale differential item functioning analyses. More than 770 participants provided data via the Internet. Results of differential item functioning analyses identified three items as differentially functioning between the genders, and removal of these items is recommended. Findings confirmed the previously hypothesized multidimensional nature of condom attitudes and the five-factor structure of the MCAS even after the removal of the three problematic items. In general, comparisons across genders using the MCAS seem reasonable from a methodological standpoint. Results are discussed in terms of improving sexual health research and interventions. © The Author(s) 2014.

  17. Attitude Toward Ambiguity: Empirically Robust Factors in Self-Report Personality Scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauriola, Marco; Foschi, Renato; Mosca, Oriana; Weller, Joshua

    2016-06-01

    Two studies were conducted to examine the factor structure of attitude toward ambiguity, a broad personality construct that refers to personal reactions to perceived ambiguous stimuli in a variety of context and situations. Using samples from two countries, Study 1 mapped the hierarchical structure of 133 items from seven tolerance-intolerance of ambiguity scales (N = 360, Italy; N = 306, United States). Three major factors-Discomfort with Ambiguity, Moral Absolutism/Splitting, and Need for Complexity and Novelty-were recovered in each country with high replicability coefficients across samples. In Study 2 (N = 405, Italian community sample; N =366, English native speakers sample), we carried out a confirmatory analysis on selected factor markers. A bifactor model had an acceptable fit for each sample and reached the construct-level invariance for general and group factors. Convergent validity with related traits was assessed in both studies. We conclude that attitude toward ambiguity can be best represented a multidimensional construct involving affective (Discomfort with Ambiguity), cognitive (Moral Absolutism/Splitting), and epistemic (Need for Complexity and Novelty) components. © The Author(s) 2015.

  18. Factor structure and psychometric properties of a Romanian translation of the Body Appreciation Scale-2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swami, Viren; Tudorel, Otilia; Goian, Cosmin; Barron, David; Vintila, Mona

    2017-12-01

    We examined the psychometric properties of a Romanian translation of the 10-item Body Appreciation Scale-2 (BAS-2). A total of 453 university students from Romania completed the BAS-2, along with measures of disordered eating, self-esteem, satisfaction with life, and subjective happiness. In addition, a separate sample of university students (N=109) completed only the BAS-2 at two time-points three weeks apart. Principal-axis factor analysis indicated that BAS-2 scores had a one-dimensional factor structure in both women and men. Confirmatory factor analysis indicated that this factor structure had adequate fit, but invariance across sex was not supported. Further analyses indicated that BAS-2 scores evidenced internal consistency, convergent validity, and test-retest reliability in both women and men. These results suggest that BAS-2 scores reduce to one dimension in Romanian adults, but the lack of sex invariance may indicate that the same latent construct is not being measured in women and men. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Validation of the Social Appearance Anxiety Scale: factor, convergent, and divergent validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levinson, Cheri A; Rodebaugh, Thomas L

    2011-09-01

    The Social Appearance Anxiety Scale (SAAS) was created to assess fear of overall appearance evaluation. Initial psychometric work indicated that the measure had a single-factor str