WorldWideScience

Sample records for factor analysis reliability

  1. Reliability estimation in a multilevel confirmatory factor analysis framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geldhof, G John; Preacher, Kristopher J; Zyphur, Michael J

    2014-03-01

    Scales with varying degrees of measurement reliability are often used in the context of multistage sampling, where variance exists at multiple levels of analysis (e.g., individual and group). Because methodological guidance on assessing and reporting reliability at multiple levels of analysis is currently lacking, we discuss the importance of examining level-specific reliability. We present a simulation study and an applied example showing different methods for estimating multilevel reliability using multilevel confirmatory factor analysis and provide supporting Mplus program code. We conclude that (a) single-level estimates will not reflect a scale's actual reliability unless reliability is identical at each level of analysis, (b) 2-level alpha and composite reliability (omega) perform relatively well in most settings, (c) estimates of maximal reliability (H) were more biased when estimated using multilevel data than either alpha or omega, and (d) small cluster size can lead to overestimates of reliability at the between level of analysis. We also show that Monte Carlo confidence intervals and Bayesian credible intervals closely reflect the sampling distribution of reliability estimates under most conditions. We discuss the estimation of credible intervals using Mplus and provide R code for computing Monte Carlo confidence intervals.

  2. MULTIDIMENSIONAL RELIABILITY OF INSTRUMENT STUDENTS’ SATISFACTION USING CONFIRMATORY FACTOR ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaguk Margono

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to compare unidimensional reliability and multidimensional reliability of instrument students’ satisfaction as an internal costumer. Multidimensional reliability measurement is rarely used in the field of research. Multidimensional reliability is estimated by using Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA on the Structural Equation Model (SEM. Measurements and calculations are described in this article using instrument students’ satisfaction as an internal costumer. Survey method used in this study and sampling used simple random sampling. This instrument has been tried out to 173 students. The result is concluded that the measuringinstrument of students’ satisfaction as an internal costumer by using multidimensional reliability coefficient has higher accuracy when compared with a unidimensional reliability coefficient. Expected in advanced research used another formula multidimensional reliability, including when using SEM.

  3. Human Reliability Analysis for Design: Using Reliability Methods for Human Factors Issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ronald Laurids Boring

    2010-11-01

    This paper reviews the application of human reliability analysis methods to human factors design issues. An application framework is sketched in which aspects of modeling typically found in human reliability analysis are used in a complementary fashion to the existing human factors phases of design and testing. The paper provides best achievable practices for design, testing, and modeling. Such best achievable practices may be used to evaluate and human system interface in the context of design safety certifications.

  4. Spinal appearance questionnaire: factor analysis, scoring, reliability, and validity testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carreon, Leah Y; Sanders, James O; Polly, David W; Sucato, Daniel J; Parent, Stefan; Roy-Beaudry, Marjolaine; Hopkins, Jeffrey; McClung, Anna; Bratcher, Kelly R; Diamond, Beverly E

    2011-08-15

    Cross sectional. This study presents the factor analysis of the Spinal Appearance Questionnaire (SAQ) and its psychometric properties. Although the SAQ has been administered to a large sample of patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) treated surgically, its psychometric properties have not been fully evaluated. This study presents the factor analysis and scoring of the SAQ and evaluates its psychometric properties. The SAQ and the Scoliosis Research Society-22 (SRS-22) were administered to AIS patients who were being observed, braced or scheduled for surgery. Standard demographic data and radiographic measures including Lenke type and curve magnitude were also collected. Of the 1802 patients, 83% were female; with a mean age of 14.8 years and mean initial Cobb angle of 55.8° (range, 0°-123°). From the 32 items of the SAQ, 15 loaded on two factors with consistent and significant correlations across all Lenke types. There is an Appearance (items 1-10) and an Expectations factor (items 12-15). Responses are summed giving a range of 5 to 50 for the Appearance domain and 5 to 20 for the Expectations domain. The Cronbach's α was 0.88 for both domains and Total score with a test-retest reliability of 0.81 for Appearance and 0.91 for Expectations. Correlations with major curve magnitude were higher for the SAQ Appearance and SAQ Total scores compared to correlations between the SRS Appearance and SRS Total scores. The SAQ and SRS-22 Scores were statistically significantly different in patients who were scheduled for surgery compared to those who were observed or braced. The SAQ is a valid measure of self-image in patients with AIS with greater correlation to curve magnitude than SRS Appearance and Total score. It also discriminates between patients who require surgery from those who do not.

  5. Exploratory factor analysis and reliability analysis with missing data: A simple method for SPSS users

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    Bruce Weaver

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Missing data is a frequent problem for researchers conducting exploratory factor analysis (EFA or reliability analysis. The SPSS FACTOR procedure allows users to select listwise deletion, pairwise deletion or mean substitution as a method for dealing with missing data. The shortcomings of these methods are well-known. Graham (2009 argues that a much better way to deal with missing data in this context is to use a matrix of expectation maximization (EM covariances(or correlations as input for the analysis. SPSS users who have the Missing Values Analysis add-on module can obtain vectors ofEM means and standard deviations plus EM correlation and covariance matrices via the MVA procedure. But unfortunately, MVA has no /MATRIX subcommand, and therefore cannot write the EM correlations directly to a matrix dataset of the type needed as input to the FACTOR and RELIABILITY procedures. We describe two macros that (in conjunction with an intervening MVA command carry out the data management steps needed to create two matrix datasets, one containing EM correlations and the other EM covariances. Either of those matrix datasets can then be used asinput to the FACTOR procedure, and the EM correlations can also be used as input to RELIABILITY. We provide an example that illustrates the use of the two macros to generate the matrix datasets and how to use those datasets as input to the FACTOR and RELIABILITY procedures. We hope that this simple method for handling missing data will prove useful to both students andresearchers who are conducting EFA or reliability analysis.

  6. Reliability Analysis of Jacket Platforms in Malaysia-Environmental Load Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nelson J. Cossa

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, there has been a significant trend for adoption of the ISO-19902 standards for design of fixed steel offshore structures. The implementation of this standard aims to provide a harmonized international framework of design. Unlike, the traditional and currently used, WSD-method, the ISO-19902, follows the LRFD-method, that consists of both partial load and resistance factors. These partial factors are usually calibrated through reliability analysis. In these analyses, the performance of a structure is defined by the limit state function for the critical mode of failure. This paper, focuses mainly on the ultimate (strength limit state which is directly related to the (highest environmental loading. The partial environmental load factors contained in the ISO 19902, were calibrated for the Gulf of Mexico and UK's North Sea conditions, which are relatively harsh than those in Malaysia. The study presents the steps taken for the determination of the environmental load factor for tubular members of jacket platforms in Malaysia. The factor was determined such that the reliability of tubular members of jacket designed as per the LRFD-method is at the level of target reliability obtained by the WSD-method.

  7. Validity, reliability and factor analysis of Persian version of schizophrenia quality of life scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masaeli, Nasrin; Omranifard, Victoria; Maracy, Mohammad Reza; Kheirabadi, Gholam Reza; Khedri, Anahita

    2016-01-01

    Exact measurement of quality of life (QOL) in schizophrenia patients for evaluation of the patient's deterioration and also to assess the efficacy of therapeutic Interventions has become a daily task, which requires accurate assessment tools. This study was aimed to assess the psychometric properties of a Persian version of schizophrenia QOL scale (SQLS) as a common transcultural instrument. One hundred and fifty schizophrenia patients who referred to Psychiatric Clinic in Noor Hospital (Isfahan, Iran) have been selected using simple sampling method. Aside with SQLS, short form-36 general health (SF-36) and World Health Organization QOL-brief-26 (WHOQOL-BREF-26). Questionnaires were completed by the cases for determination of correlation coefficients. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, factor analysis, Cronbach's coefficient alpha, Pearson correlation coefficient by Statistical Package for Social Sciences software, version 18 (SPSS-18). Total reliability of the questionnaire was reported by using Cronbach's coefficient alpha 0.84, reliability of individual relationships subscales was 0.91, signs 0/87, symptoms 0/72 and motivation/energy 0/61. Correlation coefficients of SF-36 with a total scale of SQLS and correlation coefficient of WHOQOL-BREF-26 with a total scale of SQLS were acceptable. Exploratory factor analysis using varimax rotation identified four principle components (interpersonal relationship, symptoms, signs, motivation, and energy), which will determine QOL at 52.7% variance. Persian version of the SQLS can be used as a simple, reliable and valid tool in Iranian population.

  8. Development and application of spaceflight performance shaping factors for human reliability analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mindock, Jennifer

    The ability of crewmembers to perform various critical functions during spacecraft operations is widely recognized as being essential to mission success. This necessity motivates the desire to better characterize factors that can influence crewmember performance so that those with positive effects can be enhanced, while those with negative impacts can be minimized. Established Human Reliability Analysis methods exist for analyzing performance within the context of myriad terrestrial scenarios. Many of the existing methods have their roots in nuclear power plant operations. While perhaps similar, the factors influencing performance traditionally used in these methods do not take into account the unique conditions encountered during spaceflight. Therefore, this research has identified a tailored set of factors that influence human task performance during space missions. This thesis describes an organizational scheme developed to aid in classifying and communicating the factors across disciplines and organizations. Definitions of identified factors are given for the spaceflight-specific context. A visual display of the factors, called the Contributing Factor Map, is presented and its use as a risk communication tool is discussed. The Bayesian Network is discussed as a quantification approach allowing relationships between factors, in addition to the factor relationships to performance outcomes, to be modeled. A method for determining a network structure was developed for domains such as human spaceflight, in which a global set of data for analysis is not available. This method applied the Analytic Hierarchy Process, and causal latency concepts from the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System in a novel way to guide choices for modeling the dominant set of factors and relationships in a simplified Bayesian Network structure. In addition, an approach for modeling the factors as statistical variables in a Bayesian Network making use of existing design

  9. Study on Performance Shaping Factors (PSFs) Quantification Method in Human Reliability Analysis (HRA)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Ar Ryum; Jang, Inseok Jang; Seong, Poong Hyun [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejon (Korea, Republic of); Park, Jinkyun [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Jong Hyun [KEPCO, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    The purpose of HRA implementation is 1) to achieve the human factor engineering (HFE) design goal of providing operator interfaces that will minimize personnel errors and 2) to conduct an integrated activity to support probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). For these purposes, various HRA methods have been developed such as technique for human error rate prediction (THERP), simplified plant analysis risk human reliability assessment (SPAR-H), cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) and so on. In performing HRA, such conditions that influence human performances have been represented via several context factors called performance shaping factors (PSFs). PSFs are aspects of the human's individual characteristics, environment, organization, or task that specifically decrements or improves human performance, thus respectively increasing or decreasing the likelihood of human errors. Most HRA methods evaluate the weightings of PSFs by expert judgment and explicit guidance for evaluating the weighting is not provided. It has been widely known that the performance of the human operator is one of the critical factors to determine the safe operation of NPPs. HRA methods have been developed to identify the possibility and mechanism of human errors. In performing HRA methods, the effect of PSFs which may increase or decrease human error should be investigated. However, the effect of PSFs were estimated by expert judgment so far. Accordingly, in order to estimate the effect of PSFs objectively, the quantitative framework to estimate PSFs by using PSF profiles is introduced in this paper.

  10. Reliability Analysis of a Composite Blade Structure Using the Model Correction Factor Method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dimitrov, Nikolay Krasimiroy; Friis-Hansen, Peter; Berggreen, Christian

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a reliability analysis of a composite blade profile. The so-called Model Correction Factor technique is applied as an effective alternate approach to the response surface technique. The structural reliability is determined by use of a simplified idealised analytical model which...... in a probabilistic sense is model corrected so that it, close to the design point, represents the same structural behaviour as a realistic FE model. This approach leads to considerable improvement of computational efficiency over classical response surface methods, because the numerically “cheap” idealistic model...... is used as the response surface, while the time-consuming detailed model is called only a few times until the simplified model is calibrated to the detailed model....

  11. Dimensionality and reliability of the self-care of heart failure index scales: further evidence from confirmatory factor analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbaranelli, Claudio; Lee, Christopher S; Vellone, Ercole; Riegel, Barbara

    2014-12-01

    The Self-Care of Heart Failure Index (SCHFI) is used widely, but issues with reliability have been evident. Cronbach alpha coefficient is usually used to assess reliability, but this approach assumes a unidimensional scale. The purpose of this article is to address the dimensionality and internal consistency reliability of the SCHFI. This was a secondary analysis of data from 629 adults with heart failure enrolled in three separate studies conducted in the northeastern and northwestern United States. Following testing for scale dimensionality using confirmatory factor analysis, reliability was tested using coefficient alpha and alternative options. Confirmatory factor analysis demonstrated that: (a) the Self-Care Maintenance Scale has a multidimensional four-factor structure; (b) the Self-Care Management Scale has a two-factor structure, but the primary factors loaded on a common higher-order factor; and (c) the Self-Care Confidence Scale is unidimensional. Reliability estimates for the three scales, obtained with methods compatible with each scale's dimensionality, were adequate or high. The results of the analysis demonstrate that issues of dimensionality and reliability cannot be separated. Appropriate estimates of reliability that are consistent with the dimensionality of the scale must be used. In the case of the SCHFI, coefficient alpha should not be used to assess reliability of the self-care maintenance and the self-care management scales, due to their multidimensionality. When performing psychometric evaluations, we recommend testing dimensionality before assessing reliability, as well using multiple indices of reliability, such as model-based internal consistency, composite reliability, and omega and maximal reliability coefficients. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. The Application of the Model Correction Factor Method to a Reliability Analysis of a Composite Blade Structure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dimitrov, Nikolay Krasimiroy; Friis-Hansen, Peter; Berggreen, Christian

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a reliability analysis of a composite blade profile. The so-called Model Correction Factor technique is applied as an effective alternate approach to the response surface technique. The structural reliability is determined by use of a simplified idealised analytical model which...

  13. How Many Performance Shaping Factors are Necessary for Human Reliability Analysis?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ronald L. Boring

    2010-06-01

    It has been argued that human reliability analysis (HRA) has expended considerable energy on creating detailed representations of human performance through an increasingly long list of performance shaping factors (PSFs). It is not clear, however, to what extent this refinement and expansion of PSFs has enhanced the quality of HRA. Indeed, there is considerable range in the number of PSFs provided by individual HRA methods, ranging from single factor models such as time-reliability curves, up to 50 or more PSFs in some current HRA models. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission advocates 15 PSFs in its HRA Good Practices (NUREG-1792), while its SPAR-H method (NUREG/CR-6883) espouses the use of eight PSFs and its ATHEANA method (NUREG-1624) features an open-ended number of PSFs. The apparent differences in the optimal number of PSFs can be explained in terms of the diverse functions of PSFs in HRA. The purpose of this paper is to explore the role of PSFs across different stages of HRA, including identification of potential human errors, modeling of these errors into an overall probabilistic risk assessment, quantifying errors, and preventing errors.

  14. Reliability Analysis of a Composite Wind Turbine Blade Section Using the Model Correction Factor Method: Numerical Study and Validation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dimitrov, Nikolay Krasimirov; Friis-Hansen, Peter; Berggreen, Christian

    2013-01-01

    Reliability analysis of fiber-reinforced composite structures is a relatively unexplored field, and it is therefore expected that engineers and researchers trying to apply such an approach will meet certain challenges until more knowledge is accumulated. While doing the analyses included...... in the present paper, the authors have experienced some of the possible pitfalls on the way to complete a precise and robust reliability analysis for layered composites. Results showed that in order to obtain accurate reliability estimates it is necessary to account for the various failure modes described...... by the composite failure criteria. Each failure mode has been considered in a separate component reliability analysis, followed by a system analysis which gives the total probability of failure of the structure. The Model Correction Factor method used in connection with FORM (First-Order Reliability Method) proved...

  15. Power electronics reliability analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Mark A.; Atcitty, Stanley

    2009-12-01

    This report provides the DOE and industry with a general process for analyzing power electronics reliability. The analysis can help with understanding the main causes of failures, downtime, and cost and how to reduce them. One approach is to collect field maintenance data and use it directly to calculate reliability metrics related to each cause. Another approach is to model the functional structure of the equipment using a fault tree to derive system reliability from component reliability. Analysis of a fictitious device demonstrates the latter process. Optimization can use the resulting baseline model to decide how to improve reliability and/or lower costs. It is recommended that both electric utilities and equipment manufacturers make provisions to collect and share data in order to lay the groundwork for improving reliability into the future. Reliability analysis helps guide reliability improvements in hardware and software technology including condition monitoring and prognostics and health management.

  16. Correlation Relationship of Performance Shaping Factors (PSFs) for Human Reliability Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bheka, M. Khumalo; Kim, Jonghyun [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-10-15

    At TMI-2, operators permitted thousands of gallons of water to escape from the reactor plant before realizing that the coolant pumps were behaving abnormally. The coolant pumps were then turned off, which in turn led to the destruction of the reactor itself as cooling was completely lost within the core. Human also plays a role in many aspects of complex systems e.g. in design and manufacture of hardware, interface between human and system and also in maintaining such systems as well as for coping with unusual events that place the NPP system at a risk. This is why human reliability analysis (HRA) - an aspect of risk assessments which systematically identifies and analyzes the causes and consequences of human decisions and actions - is important in nuclear power plant operations. It either upgrades or degrades human performance; therefore it has an impact on the possibility of error. These PSFs can be used in various HRA methods to estimate Human Error Probabilities (HEPs). There are many current HRA methods who propose sets of PSFs for normal operation mode of NPP. Some of these PSFs in the sets have some degree of dependency and overlap. Overlapping PSFs introduce error in HEP evaluations due to the fact that some elements are counted more than once in data; this skews the relationship amongst PSF and masks the way that the elements interact to affect performance. This study uses a causal model that represents dependencies and relationships amongst PSFs for HEP evaluation during normal NPP operational states. The model is built taking into consideration the dependencies among PSFs and thus eliminating overlap. The use of an interdependent model of PSFs is expected to produce more accurate HEPs compared to other current methods. PSF sets produced in this study can be further used as nodes (variables) and directed arcs (causal influence between nodes) in HEP evaluation methods such as Bayesian belief (BN) networks. This study was done to estimate the relationships

  17. Confirmatory Factor Analysis for Testing Validity and Reliability of Traditional Knowledge Scale to Measure University Students' Attitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ugulu, Ilker

    2013-01-01

    This study focuses on the confirmatory factor analysis for testing validity and reliability of Traditional Knowledge Attitude Scale (TKAS) to measure university students' attitudes. The items in the TKAS were developed initially from the responses to two open-ended items by 30 university students and literature review on traditional…

  18. Multidisciplinary System Reliability Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahadevan, Sankaran; Han, Song; Chamis, Christos C. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The objective of this study is to develop a new methodology for estimating the reliability of engineering systems that encompass multiple disciplines. The methodology is formulated in the context of the NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis code, developed under the leadership of NASA Glenn Research Center. The NESSUS code has been successfully applied to the reliability estimation of a variety of structural engineering systems. This study examines whether the features of NESSUS could be used to investigate the reliability of systems in other disciplines such as heat transfer, fluid mechanics, electrical circuits etc., without considerable programming effort specific to each discipline. In this study, the mechanical equivalence between system behavior models in different disciplines are investigated to achieve this objective. A new methodology is presented for the analysis of heat transfer, fluid flow, and electrical circuit problems using the structural analysis routines within NESSUS, by utilizing the equivalence between the computational quantities in different disciplines. This technique is integrated with the fast probability integration and system reliability techniques within the NESSUS code, to successfully compute the system reliability of multidisciplinary systems. Traditional as well as progressive failure analysis methods for system reliability estimation are demonstrated, through a numerical example of a heat exchanger system involving failure modes in structural, heat transfer and fluid flow disciplines.

  19. Tampa Scale of Kinesiophobia for Heart Turkish Version Study: cross-cultural adaptation, exploratory factor analysis, and reliability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Acar S

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Serap Acar,1 Sema Savci,1 Pembe Keskinoğlu,2 Bahri Akdeniz,3 Ebru Özpelit,3 Buse Özcan Kahraman,1 Didem Karadibak,1 Can Sevinc4 1School of Physical Therapy and Rehabilitation, 2Department of Biostatistics, Faculty of Medicine, 3Department of Cardiology, Faculty of Medicine, 4Department of Chest Disease, Faculty of Medicine, Dokuz Eylul University, İzmir, Turkey Purpose: Individuals with cardiac problems avoid physical activity and exercise because they expect to feel shortness of breath, dizziness, or chest pain. Assessing kinesiophobia related to heart problems is important in terms of cardiac rehabilitation. The Tampa Scale of Kinesiophobia Swedish Version for the Heart (TSK-SV Heart is reliable and has been validated for cardiac diseases in the Swedish population. The aim of this study was to investigate the reliability, parallel-form validity, and exploratory factor analysis of the TSK for the Heart Turkish Version (TSK Heart Turkish Version for evaluating kinesiophobia in patients with heart failure and pulmonary arterial hypertension.Methods: This cross-sectional study involved translation, back translation, and cross-cultural adaptation (localization. Forty-three pulmonary arterial hypertension and 32 heart failure patients were evaluated using the TSK Heart Turkish Version. The 17-item scale, originally composed for the Swedish population, has four factors: perceived danger for heart problem, avoidance of exercise, fear of injury, and dysfunctional self. Cronbach’s alpha (internal ­consistency and exploratory factor analysis were used to assess the questionnaire’s reliability. Results of the patients in the 6-minute walk test, International Physical Activity Questionnaire, and Nottingham Health Profile were analyzed by Pearson’s correlation analysis with the TSK Heart Turkish Version to indicate the convergent validity.Results: Cronbach’s alpha for the TSK Heart Turkish Version was 0.75, indicating acceptable internal

  20. System Reliability Analysis: Foundations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-07-01

    performance formulas for systems subject to pre- ventive maintenance are given. V * ~, , 9 D -2 SYSTEM RELIABILITY ANALYSIS: FOUNDATIONS Richard E...reliability in this case is V P{s can communicate with the terminal t = h(p) Sp2(((((p p)p) p)p)gp) + p(l -p)(((pL p)p)(p 2 JLp)) + p(l -p)((p(p p...For undirected networks, the basic reference is A. Satyanarayana and Kevin Wood (1982). For directed networks, the basic reference is Avinash

  1. ATLAS reliability analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bartsch, R.R.

    1995-09-01

    Key elements of the 36 MJ ATLAS capacitor bank have been evaluated for individual probabilities of failure. These have been combined to estimate system reliability which is to be greater than 95% on each experimental shot. This analysis utilizes Weibull or Weibull-like distributions with increasing probability of failure with the number of shots. For transmission line insulation, a minimum thickness is obtained and for the railgaps, a method for obtaining a maintenance interval from forthcoming life tests is suggested.

  2. Development of Physical Activity-Related Parenting Practices Scales for Urban Chinese Parents of Preschoolers: Confirmatory Factor Analysis and Reliability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suen, Yi-Nam; Cerin, Ester; Barnett, Anthony; Huang, Wendy Y J; Mellecker, Robin R

    2017-09-01

    Valid instruments of parenting practices related to children's physical activity (PA) are essential to understand how parents affect preschoolers' PA. This study developed and validated a questionnaire of PA-related parenting practices for Chinese-speaking parents of preschoolers in Hong Kong. Parents (n = 394) completed a questionnaire developed using findings from formative qualitative research and literature searches. Test-retest reliability was determined on a subsample (n = 61). Factorial validity was assessed using confirmatory factor analysis. Subscale internal consistency was determined. The scale of parenting practices encouraging PA comprised 2 latent factors: Modeling, structure and participatory engagement in PA (23 items), and Provision of appropriate places for child's PA (4 items). The scale of parenting practices discouraging PA scale encompassed 4 latent factors: Safety concern/overprotection (6 items), Psychological/behavioral control (5 items), Promoting inactivity (4 items), and Promoting screen time (2 items). Test-retest reliabilities were moderate to excellent (0.58 to 0.82), and internal subscale reliabilities were acceptable (0.63 to 0.89). We developed a theory-based questionnaire for assessing PA-related parenting practices among Chinese-speaking parents of Hong Kong preschoolers. While some items were context and culture specific, many were similar to those previously found in other populations, indicating a degree of construct generalizability across cultures.

  3. Reliability assessment of offshore platforms exposed to wave-in-deck loading. Appendix F: Reliability analysis of offshore jacket structures with wave load on deck using the model correction factor method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dalsgaard Soerensen, J. [Aalborg Univ., Aalborg (Denmark); Friis-Hansen, P. [Technical Univ. Denmark, Lyngby (Denmark); Bloch, A.; Svejgaard Nielsen, J. [Ramboell, Esbjerg (Denmark)

    2004-08-01

    Different simple stochastic models for failure related to pushover collapse are investigated. Next, a method is proposed to estimate the reliability of real offshore jacket structures. The method is based on the Model Correction Factor Method and can be used to very efficiently to estimate the reliability for total failure/collapse of jacket type platforms with wave in deck loads. A realistic example is evaluated and it is seen that it is possible to perform probabilistic reliability analysis for collapse of a jacket type platform using the model correction factor method. The total number of deterministic, complicated, non-linear (RONJA) analysis is typically as low as 10. Such reliability analyses are recommended to be used in practical applications, especially for cases with wave in deck load, where the traditional RSR analyses give poor measures of the structural reliability. (au)

  4. Human reliability guidance - How to increase the synergies between human reliability, human factors, and system design and engineering. Phase 2: The American Point of View - Insights of how the US nuclear industry works with human reliability analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oxstrand, J. (Vattenfall Ringhals AB, Stockholm (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    The main goal of this Nordic Nuclear Safety Research Council (NKS) project is to produce guidance for how to use human reliability analysis (HRA) to strengthen overall safety. The project consists of two substudies: The Nordic Point of View - A User Needs Analysis, and The American Point of View - Insights of How the US Nuclear Industry Works with HRA. The purpose of the Nordic Point of View study was a user needs analysis that aimed to survey current HRA practices in the Nordic nuclear industry, with the main focus being to connect HRA to system design. In this study, 26 Nordic (Swedish and Finnish) nuclear power plant specialists with research, practitioner, and regulatory expertise in HRA, PRA, HSI, and human performance were interviewed. This study was completed in 2009. This study concludes that HRA is an important tool when dealing with human factors in control room design or modernizations. The Nordic Point of View study showed areas where the use of HRA in the Nordic nuclear industry could be improved. To gain more knowledge about how these improvements could be made, and what improvements to focus on, the second study was conducted. The second study is focused on the American nuclear industry, which has many more years of experience with risk assessment and human reliability than the Nordic nuclear industry. Interviews were conducted to collect information to help the author understand the similarities and differences between the American and the Nordic nuclear industries, and to find data regarding the findings from the first study. The main focus of this report is to identify potential HRA improvements based on the data collected in the American Point of View survey. (Author)

  5. Reliability Analysis of Sensor Networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JIN Yan; YANG Xiao-zong; WANG Ling

    2005-01-01

    To Integrate the capacity of sensing, communication, computing, and actuating, one of the compelling technological advances of these years has been the appearance of distributed wireless sensor network (DSN) for information gathering tasks. In order to save the energy, multi-hop routing between the sensor nodes and the sink node is necessary because of limited resource. In addition, the unpredictable conditional factors make the sensor nodes unreliable. In this paper, the reliability of routing designed for sensor network and some dependability issues of DSN, such as MTTF(mean time to failure) and the probability of connectivity between the sensor nodes and the sink node are analyzed.Unfortunately, we could not obtain the accurate result for the arbitrary network topology, which is # P-hard problem.And the reliability analysis of restricted topologies clustering-based is given. The method proposed in this paper will show us a constructive idea about how to place energyconstrained sensor nodes in the network efficiently from the prospective of reliability.

  6. Reliability Sensitivity Analysis for Location Scale Family

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    洪东跑; 张海瑞

    2011-01-01

    Many products always operate under various complex environment conditions. To describe the dynamic influence of environment factors on their reliability, a method of reliability sensitivity analysis is proposed. In this method, the location parameter is assumed as a function of relevant environment variables while the scale parameter is assumed as an un- known positive constant. Then, the location parameter function is constructed by using the method of radial basis function. Using the varied environment test data, the log-likelihood function is transformed to a generalized linear expression by de- scribing the indicator as Poisson variable. With the generalized linear model, the maximum likelihood estimations of the model coefficients are obtained. With the reliability model, the reliability sensitivity is obtained. An instance analysis shows that the method is feasible to analyze the dynamic variety characters of reliability along with environment factors and is straightforward for engineering application.

  7. Portuguese version of the PTSD Checklist-Military Version (PCL-M)-I: Confirmatory Factor Analysis and reliability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho, Teresa; Cunha, Marina; Pinto-Gouveia, José; Duarte, Joana

    2015-03-30

    The PTSD Checklist-Military Version (PCL-M) is a brief self-report instrument widely used to assess Post-traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) symptomatology in war Veterans, according to DSM-IV. This study sought out to explore the factor structure and reliability of the Portuguese version of the PCL-M. A sample of 660 Portuguese Colonial War Veterans completed the PCL-M. Several Confirmatory Factor Analyses were conducted to test different structures for PCL-M PTSD symptoms. Although the respecified first-order four-factor model based on King et al.'s model showed the best fit to the data, the respecified first and second-order models based on the DSM-IV symptom clusters also presented an acceptable fit. In addition, the PCL-M showed adequate reliability. The Portuguese version of the PCL-M is thus a valid and reliable measure to assess the severity of PTSD symptoms as described in DSM-IV. Its use with Portuguese Colonial War Veterans may ease screening of possible PTSD cases, promote more suitable treatment planning, and enable monitoring of therapeutic outcomes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. The stability safety factor calibration based on the reliability index

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Tong Xiaolong; Fang Zhi

    2014-01-01

    When the bridge structure stability safety factor of the first type is 4,the research that whether the structure reliability index will reach target reliability index under the more-likely-to-happen collapse situation of the second type is necessary. The stability calculations of the first and the second type are made respectively for single layer and single span rigid frame bridge. Based on the critical load obtained from the stability calculation of the first type,the stability safety factor of the first type is taken as 4,and the first order reliability method is used to program and calculate the reliability index. Then,the load effect under the stability reliability index cal-culation of the first type and the critical load of the second type are employed to calculate the reliability index of the second type. The evaluation of structure stability safety factor is discussed according to reliability index. Based on the discussion above,parameter analysis of the stable critical loads of two types is made,and the in-fluence of critical load change on reliability index is researched. The result shows that stability analysis should identify collapse state;when the stability safety factor of the first type is 4,but the structure has the collapse of the second type,the reliability index cannot be ensured to reach the target reliability index under certain condi-tions.

  9. The stability safety factor calibration pased on the reliability index

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Tong Xiaolong; Fang Zhi

    2014-01-01

    When the bridge structure stability safety factor of the first type is 4, the research that whether the structure reliability index will reach target reliability index under the more-likely-to-happen collapse situation of the second type is necessary. The stability calculations of the first and the second type are made respectively for single layer and single span rigid frame bridge. Based on the critical load obtained from the stability calculation of the first type, the stability safety factor of the first type is taken as 4, and the first order reliability method is used to program and calculate the reliability index. Then, the load effect under the stability reliability index cal- culation of the first type and the critical load of the second type are employed to calculate the reliability index of the second type. The evaluation of structure stability safety factor is discussed according to reliability index. Based on the discussion above, parameter analysis of the stable critical loads of two types is made, and the in- fluence of critical load change on reliability index is researched. The result shows that stability analysis should identify collapse state; when the stability safety factor of the first type is 4, but the structure has the collapse of the second type, the reliability index cannot be ensured to reach the target reliability index under certain condi- tions.

  10. Reliability Analysis of Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toft, Henrik Stensgaard; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2008-01-01

    In order to minimise the total expected life-cycle costs of a wind turbine it is important to estimate the reliability level for all components in the wind turbine. This paper deals with reliability analysis for the tower and blades of onshore wind turbines placed in a wind farm. The limit states...... consideres are in the ultimate limit state (ULS) extreme conditions in the standstill position and extreme conditions during operating. For wind turbines, where the magnitude of the loads is influenced by the control system, the ultimate limit state can occur in both cases. In the fatigue limit state (FLS......) the reliability level for a wind turbine placed in a wind farm is considered, and wake effects from neighbouring wind turbines is taken into account. An illustrative example with calculation of the reliability for mudline bending of the tower is considered. In the example the design is determined according...

  11. Reliability analysis in intelligent machines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcinroy, John E.; Saridis, George N.

    1990-01-01

    Given an explicit task to be executed, an intelligent machine must be able to find the probability of success, or reliability, of alternative control and sensing strategies. By using concepts for information theory and reliability theory, new techniques for finding the reliability corresponding to alternative subsets of control and sensing strategies are proposed such that a desired set of specifications can be satisfied. The analysis is straightforward, provided that a set of Gaussian random state variables is available. An example problem illustrates the technique, and general reliability results are presented for visual servoing with a computed torque-control algorithm. Moreover, the example illustrates the principle of increasing precision with decreasing intelligence at the execution level of an intelligent machine.

  12. Investigating the Reliability and Factor Structure of Kalichman's "Survey 2

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm, Søren; Hofmann, Bjørn

    2017-01-01

    A precondition for reducing scientific misconduct is evidence about scientists' attitudes. We need reliable survey instruments, and this study investigates the reliability of Kalichman's "Survey 2: research misconduct" questionnaire. The study is a post hoc analysis of data from three surveys among...... biomedical doctoral students in Scandinavia (2010-2015). We perform reliability analysis, and exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis using a split-sample design as a partial validation. The results indicate that a reliable 13-item scale can be formed (Cronbach's α = .705), and factor analysis indicates...... that there are four reliable subscales each tapping a different construct: (a) general attitude to misconduct (α = .768), (b) attitude to personal misconduct (α = .784), (c) attitude to whistleblowing (α = .841), and (d) attitude to blameworthiness/punishment (α = .877). A full validation of the questionnaire...

  13. Confirmatory factor analysis and reliability of the Chinese version of the Maslach Burnout Inventory among guidance teachers in Hong Kong.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuen, Mantak; Lau, Patrick S Y; Shek, Daniel T L; Lam, Man-Ping

    2002-12-01

    In 1995 Chan and Hui examined the responses of a sample of Chinese teachers on the Maslach Burnout Inventory and recommended a possible 2-factor rather than the original 3-factor model for the assessment of burnout among Chinese teachers. In the present study, the factor structure of responses to the Chinese version of the Maslach Burnout Inventory in a sample of 1,398 Chinese secondary school guidance teachers was examined using the EQS approach to confirmatory factor analysis. The results showed that a 3-factor model (Emotional Exhaustion, Depersonalization, and Personal Accomplishment) provided the best fit, with the first two factors highly correlated (r = .80). Internal consistencies for the subscales ranged from .80 to .88.

  14. Reliability Analysis of High Rockfill Dam Stability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ping Yi

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A program 3DSTAB combining slope stability analysis and reliability analysis is developed and validated. In this program, the limit equilibrium method is utilized to calculate safety factors of critical slip surfaces. The first-order reliability method is used to compute reliability indexes corresponding to critical probabilistic surfaces. When derivatives of the performance function are calculated by finite difference method, the previous iteration’s critical slip surface is saved and used. This sequential approximation strategy notably improves efficiency. Using this program, the stability reliability analyses of concrete faced rockfill dams and earth core rockfill dams with different heights and different slope ratios are performed. The results show that both safety factors and reliability indexes decrease as the dam’s slope increases at a constant height and as the dam’s height increases at a constant slope. They decrease dramatically as the dam height increases from 100 m to 200 m while they decrease slowly once the dam height exceeds 250 m, which deserves attention. Additionally, both safety factors and reliability indexes of the upstream slope of earth core rockfill dams are higher than that of the downstream slope. Thus, the downstream slope stability is the key failure mode for earth core rockfill dams.

  15. Hybrid reliability model for fatigue reliability analysis of steel bridges

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    曹珊珊; 雷俊卿

    2016-01-01

    A kind of hybrid reliability model is presented to solve the fatigue reliability problems of steel bridges. The cumulative damage model is one kind of the models used in fatigue reliability analysis. The parameter characteristics of the model can be described as probabilistic and interval. The two-stage hybrid reliability model is given with a theoretical foundation and a solving algorithm to solve the hybrid reliability problems. The theoretical foundation is established by the consistency relationships of interval reliability model and probability reliability model with normally distributed variables in theory. The solving process is combined with the definition of interval reliability index and the probabilistic algorithm. With the consideration of the parameter characteristics of theS−N curve, the cumulative damage model with hybrid variables is given based on the standards from different countries. Lastly, a case of steel structure in the Neville Island Bridge is analyzed to verify the applicability of the hybrid reliability model in fatigue reliability analysis based on the AASHTO.

  16. Sensitivity Analysis of Component Reliability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZhenhuaGe

    2004-01-01

    In a system, Every component has its unique position within system and its unique failure characteristics. When a component's reliability is changed, its effect on system reliability is not equal. Component reliability sensitivity is a measure of effect on system reliability while a component's reliability is changed. In this paper, the definition and relative matrix of component reliability sensitivity is proposed, and some of their characteristics are analyzed. All these will help us to analyse or improve the system reliability.

  17. Reliability analysis of offshore jacket structures with wave load on deck using the Model Correction Factor Method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Friis-Hansen, P.; Nielsen, J.S.

    2007-01-01

    Traditionally, deterministic pushover analyses are performed for steel-jacket offshore platforms in order to calculate RSR (Reserve Strength Ratio) values as the representative reliability measure for the total collapse of the structure. In this paper, reliability analyses are performed for total...

  18. Reliability Analysis of Offshore Jacket Structures with Wave Load on Deck using the Model Correction Factor Method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2006-01-01

    Traditionally deterministic push-over analyses are performed for steel-jacket offshore platforms in order to calculate RSR (Reserve Strength Ratio) values as the representative reliability measure for total collapse of the structure. In this paper reliability analyses are performed for total...

  19. Culture Representation in Human Reliability Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    David Gertman; Julie Marble; Steven Novack

    2006-12-01

    Understanding human-system response is critical to being able to plan and predict mission success in the modern battlespace. Commonly, human reliability analysis has been used to predict failures of human performance in complex, critical systems. However, most human reliability methods fail to take culture into account. This paper takes an easily understood state of the art human reliability analysis method and extends that method to account for the influence of culture, including acceptance of new technology, upon performance. The cultural parameters used to modify the human reliability analysis were determined from two standard industry approaches to cultural assessment: Hofstede’s (1991) cultural factors and Davis’ (1989) technology acceptance model (TAM). The result is called the Culture Adjustment Method (CAM). An example is presented that (1) reviews human reliability assessment with and without cultural attributes for a Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system attack, (2) demonstrates how country specific information can be used to increase the realism of HRA modeling, and (3) discusses the differences in human error probability estimates arising from cultural differences.

  20. Validity, reliability, and factor analysis of Persian version of quality of life questionnaire for irritable bowel syndrome (IBS-QOL-34

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nasrine Masaeli

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Quality of life (QOL improvement is the main objective of treating patients with irritable bowel syndrome (IBS. This study aimed to assess the validity, reliability, and factor analysis of IBS-QOL-34 questionnaire as a common transcultural instrument for Iranian IBS patients. Materials and Methods: Two hundred and forty patients with IBS (based on gastroenterologists′ diagnosis according to ROM III criteria were referred to Digestive Health Clinic in Psychosomatic Research Center have been selected in this study. Aside with IBS-QOL-34, MOS 36-item short-form health survey (SF-36 and IBS severity index (IBSSI questionnaires were completed by the cases for determination of correlation coefficients; the data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, factor analysis, Cronbach′s alpha, Pearson correlation coefficient by Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS software, version 18. Results: Total reliability of the questionnaire was reported by using Cronbach′s alpha as 0.95, ranging from 0.65 to 0.90. Correlation coefficients of concurrent implementation of IBS-QOL with SF-36 and IBSSI resulted in −0.61 and 0.64, respectively. Exploratory factor analysis using varimax rotation identified eight principle components, which will determine QOL at 67% variance. Conclusion: According to the results, IBS-QOL-34 questionnaire has good psychometric properties in the research community and can be safely used as a valid tool to assess QOL of patients with IBS for healthcare and therapeutic purposes.

  1. Factors associated with the impossibility to obtain reliable liver stiffness measurements by means of Acoustic Radiation Force Impulse (ARFI) elastography—Analysis of a cohort of 1031 subjects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bota, Simona, E-mail: bota_simona1982@yahoo.com; Sporea, Ioan, E-mail: isporea@umft.ro; Sirli, Roxana, E-mail: roxanasirli@gmail.com; Popescu, Alina, E-mail: alinamircea.popescu@gmail.com; Danila, Mirela, E-mail: mireladanila@gmail.com; Jurchis, Ana, E-mail: ana.jurchis@yahoo.com; Gradinaru-Tascau, Oana, E-mail: bluonmyown@yahoo.com

    2014-02-15

    Introduction: Acoustic Radiation Force Impulse (ARFI) elastography is a non-invasive technique for liver fibrosis assessment. Aim: To assess the feasibility of ARFI elastography in a large cohort of subjects and to identify factors associated with impossibility to obtain reliable liver stiffness (LS) measurements by means of this technique. Methods: Our retrospective study included 1031 adult subjects with or without chronic liver disease. In each subject LS was assessed by means of ARFI elastography. Failure of ARFI measurements was defined if no valid measurement was obtained after at least 10 shots and unreliable in the following situations: fewer than 10 valid shots; or median value of 10 valid measurements with a success rate (SR) < 60% and/or an interquartile range interval (IQR) ≥ 30%. Results: Failure of LS measurements by means of ARFI was observed in 4 subjects (0.3%), unreliable measurements in 66 subjects (6.4%), so reliable measurements were obtained in 961 subjects (93.3%). In univariant analysis, the following risk factors were associated with failed and unreliable measurements: age over 58 years (OR = 0.49; 95% CI 0.30–0.80, p = 0.005), male gender (OR = 0.58; 95% CI 0.34–0.94, p = 0.04), BMI > 27.7 kg/m{sup 2} (OR = 0.23, 95% CI 0.13–0.41, p < 0.0001). In multivariate analysis all the factors mentioned above were independently associated with the risk of failed and unreliable measurements. Conclusions: Reliable LS measurements by means of ARFI elastography were obtained in 93.3% of cases. Older age, higher BMI and male gender were associated with the risk of failed and unreliable measurements, but their influence is limited as compared with Transient Elastography.

  2. Lower bounds to the reliabilities of factor score estimators

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hessen, D.J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/256041717

    2017-01-01

    Under the general common factor model, the reliabilities of factor score estimators might be of more interest than the reliability of the total score (the unweighted sum of item scores). In this paper, lower bounds to the reliabilities of Thurstone’s factor score estimators, Bartlett’s factor score

  3. Creep-rupture reliability analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peralta-Duran, A.; Wirsching, P. H.

    1985-01-01

    A probabilistic approach to the correlation and extrapolation of creep-rupture data is presented. Time temperature parameters (TTP) are used to correlate the data, and an analytical expression for the master curve is developed. The expression provides a simple model for the statistical distribution of strength and fits neatly into a probabilistic design format. The analysis focuses on the Larson-Miller and on the Manson-Haferd parameters, but it can be applied to any of the TTP's. A method is developed for evaluating material dependent constants for TTP's. It is shown that optimized constants can provide a significant improvement in the correlation of the data, thereby reducing modelling error. Attempts were made to quantify the performance of the proposed method in predicting long term behavior. Uncertainty in predicting long term behavior from short term tests was derived for several sets of data. Examples are presented which illustrate the theory and demonstrate the application of state of the art reliability methods to the design of components under creep.

  4. Assessing Burnout in Portuguese Health Care Workers who Care for the Dying: Validity and Reliability of a Burnout Scale Using Exploratory Factor Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carol Gouveia Melo

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Aims: The aim of this study was to develop an effective instrument to measure levels of burnout in Health Care Workers (HCWs who care for dying patients and confirm the validity and reliability of the scale. The Burnout scale for workers who care for dying patients was created in 2005, by Gouveia Melo, using items from the Maslach Burnout Inventory (Human Services Survey (Maslach, Jackson, & Leiter, 1997, the Burnout Test (Service Fields (Jerabek, 2001 and items specifically designed for burnout in end-of-life care. Method: The scale was validated with 280 HCWs working in oncology hospitals and in community home care in different parts of the country. The psychometric methods used were exploratory factor analysis using principal components analysis (PCA, Cronbach’s α coefficients, and intra-class correlation coefficients. Results: The initial 40 items were submitted to analysis for suitability of the data and 38 items were chosen for PCA. Results showed 3 main components with 36 items explaining a total of 34.29% of the variance. These factors were emotional exhaustion (15 items, professional fulfillment (14 items and depersonalization (7 items. Cronbach’s α coefficients were .86 for emotional exhaustion, .83 for professional fulfillment and .63 for depersonalization. Pearson bivariate correlations were performed on the 150 participants, with an interval of 4 months for test-retest purposes with intra-class correlations from .55 to .59 in each domain. Convergent and divergent validation showed significant correlations. Conclusions: The validity and reliability of this scale was established, enabling it to be used within the Portuguese population.

  5. On Bayesian System Reliability Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soerensen Ringi, M.

    1995-05-01

    The view taken in this thesis is that reliability, the probability that a system will perform a required function for a stated period of time, depends on a person`s state of knowledge. Reliability changes as this state of knowledge changes, i.e. when new relevant information becomes available. Most existing models for system reliability prediction are developed in a classical framework of probability theory and they overlook some information that is always present. Probability is just an analytical tool to handle uncertainty, based on judgement and subjective opinions. It is argued that the Bayesian approach gives a much more comprehensive understanding of the foundations of probability than the so called frequentistic school. A new model for system reliability prediction is given in two papers. The model encloses the fact that component failures are dependent because of a shared operational environment. The suggested model also naturally permits learning from failure data of similar components in non identical environments. 85 refs.

  6. Reliability Analysis of Money Habitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delgadillo, Lucy M.; Bushman, Brittani S.

    2015-01-01

    Use of the Money Habitudes exercise has gained popularity among various financial professionals. This article reports on the reliability of this resource. A survey administered to young adults at a western state university was conducted, and each Habitude or "domain" was analyzed using Cronbach's alpha procedures. Results showed all six…

  7. Reliability Analysis of Money Habitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delgadillo, Lucy M.; Bushman, Brittani S.

    2015-01-01

    Use of the Money Habitudes exercise has gained popularity among various financial professionals. This article reports on the reliability of this resource. A survey administered to young adults at a western state university was conducted, and each Habitude or "domain" was analyzed using Cronbach's alpha procedures. Results showed all six…

  8. RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF POWER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Popescu V.S.

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Power distribution systems are basic parts of power systems and reliability of these systems at present is a key issue for power engineering development and requires special attention. Operation of distribution systems is accompanied by a number of factors that produce random data a large number of unplanned interruptions. Research has shown that the predominant factors that have a significant influence on the reliability of distribution systems are: weather conditions (39.7%, defects in equipment(25% and unknown random factors (20.1%. In the article is studied the influence of random behavior and are presented estimations of reliability of predominantly rural electrical distribution systems.

  9. HUMAN RELIABILITY ANALYSIS FOR COMPUTERIZED PROCEDURES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ronald L. Boring; David I. Gertman; Katya Le Blanc

    2011-09-01

    This paper provides a characterization of human reliability analysis (HRA) issues for computerized procedures in nuclear power plant control rooms. It is beyond the scope of this paper to propose a new HRA approach or to recommend specific methods or refinements to those methods. Rather, this paper provides a review of HRA as applied to traditional paper-based procedures, followed by a discussion of what specific factors should additionally be considered in HRAs for computerized procedures. Performance shaping factors and failure modes unique to computerized procedures are highlighted. Since there is no definitive guide to HRA for paper-based procedures, this paper also serves to clarify the existing guidance on paper-based procedures before delving into the unique aspects of computerized procedures.

  10. Advancing Usability Evaluation through Human Reliability Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ronald L. Boring; David I. Gertman

    2005-07-01

    This paper introduces a novel augmentation to the current heuristic usability evaluation methodology. The SPAR-H human reliability analysis method was developed for categorizing human performance in nuclear power plants. Despite the specialized use of SPAR-H for safety critical scenarios, the method also holds promise for use in commercial off-the-shelf software usability evaluations. The SPAR-H method shares task analysis underpinnings with human-computer interaction, and it can be easily adapted to incorporate usability heuristics as performance shaping factors. By assigning probabilistic modifiers to heuristics, it is possible to arrive at the usability error probability (UEP). This UEP is not a literal probability of error but nonetheless provides a quantitative basis to heuristic evaluation. When combined with a consequence matrix for usability errors, this method affords ready prioritization of usability issues.

  11. Combination of structural reliability and interval analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhiping Qiu; Di Yang; saac Elishakoff

    2008-01-01

    In engineering applications,probabilistic reliability theory appears to be presently the most important method,however,in many cases precise probabilistic reliability theory cannot be considered as adequate and credible model of the real state of actual affairs.In this paper,we developed a hybrid of probabilistic and non-probabilistic reliability theory,which describes the structural uncertain parameters as interval variables when statistical data are found insufficient.By using the interval analysis,a new method for calculating the interval of the structural reliability as well as the reliability index is introduced in this paper,and the traditional probabilistic theory is incorporated with the interval analysis.Moreover,the new method preserves the useful part of the traditional probabilistic reliability theory,but removes the restriction of its strict requirement on data acquisition.Example is presented to demonstrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed theory.

  12. Integrated Methodology for Software Reliability Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marian Pompiliu CRISTESCU

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The most used techniques to ensure safety and reliability of the systems are applied together as a whole, and in most cases, the software components are usually overlooked or to little analyzed. The present paper describes the applicability of fault trees analysis software system, analysis defined as Software Fault Tree Analysis (SFTA, fault trees are evaluated using binary decision diagrams, all of these being integrated and used with help from Java library reliability.

  13. Task Decomposition in Human Reliability Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boring, Ronald Laurids [Idaho National Laboratory; Joe, Jeffrey Clark [Idaho National Laboratory

    2014-06-01

    In the probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs) used in the nuclear industry, human failure events (HFEs) are determined as a subset of hardware failures, namely those hardware failures that could be triggered by human action or inaction. This approach is top-down, starting with hardware faults and deducing human contributions to those faults. Elsewhere, more traditionally human factors driven approaches would tend to look at opportunities for human errors first in a task analysis and then identify which of those errors is risk significant. The intersection of top-down and bottom-up approaches to defining HFEs has not been carefully studied. Ideally, both approaches should arrive at the same set of HFEs. This question remains central as human reliability analysis (HRA) methods are generalized to new domains like oil and gas. The HFEs used in nuclear PSAs tend to be top-down— defined as a subset of the PSA—whereas the HFEs used in petroleum quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) are more likely to be bottom-up—derived from a task analysis conducted by human factors experts. The marriage of these approaches is necessary in order to ensure that HRA methods developed for top-down HFEs are also sufficient for bottom-up applications.

  14. Space Mission Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The purpose of this project is to extend current ground-based Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) techniques to a long-duration, space-based tool to more effectively...

  15. Production Facility System Reliability Analysis Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dale, Crystal Buchanan [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Klein, Steven Karl [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-10-06

    This document describes the reliability, maintainability, and availability (RMA) modeling of the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) design for the Closed Loop Helium Cooling System (CLHCS) planned for the NorthStar accelerator-based 99Mo production facility. The current analysis incorporates a conceptual helium recovery system, beam diagnostics, and prototype control system into the reliability analysis. The results from the 1000 hr blower test are addressed.

  16. Structural reliability analysis and reliability-based design optimization: Recent advances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, ZhiPing; Huang, Ren; Wang, XiaoJun; Qi, WuChao

    2013-09-01

    We review recent research activities on structural reliability analysis, reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) and applications in complex engineering structural design. Several novel uncertainty propagation methods and reliability models, which are the basis of the reliability assessment, are given. In addition, recent developments on reliability evaluation and sensitivity analysis are highlighted as well as implementation strategies for RBDO.

  17. The Eysenck Personality Questionnaire Brief Version: factor structure and reliability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, Toru

    2005-11-01

    The short scale of the Eysenck Personality Questionnaire-Revised (EPQR-S; H. J. Eysenck & S. B. G. Eysenck, 1992) is a 48-item personality questionnaire primarily designed to measure an individual's level of extraversion (vs. introversion) and neuroticism. Although L. J. Francis, L. B. Brown, and R. Philipchalk (1992) created the Eysenck Personality Questionnaire Revised-Abbreviated (EPQR-A), an even briefer version of the EPQR-S, the reliability coefficients of some of the measures have been less than satisfactory (S. Forrest, C. A. Lewis, & M. Shevlin, 2000). Because brevity and reliability are both extremely important, the author of the present study created a briefer version of the EPQR-S, more reliable than the EPQR-A, by making slight alterations in the item content as well as the response format of the EPQR-S. Two hundred and sixty eight participants completed the original EPQR-S and the 24-item newly revised briefer version of the EPQR-S (EPQ-BV) twice. The findings revealed that the EPQ-BV has good internal consistency, test-retest reliability, and concurrent validity. A principal component analysis revealed a solution with factor loadings that accurately reflected the primary measures of the EPQR-S. These findings are discussed in relation to the psychometric properties of the EPQR-A and the original version of the EPQR-S.

  18. Multi-Disciplinary System Reliability Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahadevan, Sankaran; Han, Song

    1997-01-01

    The objective of this study is to develop a new methodology for estimating the reliability of engineering systems that encompass multiple disciplines. The methodology is formulated in the context of the NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis code developed under the leadership of NASA Lewis Research Center. The NESSUS code has been successfully applied to the reliability estimation of a variety of structural engineering systems. This study examines whether the features of NESSUS could be used to investigate the reliability of systems in other disciplines such as heat transfer, fluid mechanics, electrical circuits etc., without considerable programming effort specific to each discipline. In this study, the mechanical equivalence between system behavior models in different disciplines are investigated to achieve this objective. A new methodology is presented for the analysis of heat transfer, fluid flow, and electrical circuit problems using the structural analysis routines within NESSUS, by utilizing the equivalence between the computational quantities in different disciplines. This technique is integrated with the fast probability integration and system reliability techniques within the NESSUS code, to successfully compute the system reliability of multi-disciplinary systems. Traditional as well as progressive failure analysis methods for system reliability estimation are demonstrated, through a numerical example of a heat exchanger system involving failure modes in structural, heat transfer and fluid flow disciplines.

  19. Reliability Analysis of DOOF for Weibull Distribution

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈文华; 崔杰; 樊小燕; 卢献彪; 相平

    2003-01-01

    Hierarchical Bayesian method for estimating the failure probability under DOOF by taking the quasi-Beta distribution as the prior distribution is proposed in this paper. The weighted Least Squares Estimate method was used to obtain the formula for computing reliability distribution parameters and estimating the reliability characteristic values under DOOF. Taking one type of aerospace electrical connector as an example, the correctness of the above method through statistical analysis of electrical connector accelerated life test data was verified.

  20. Human reliability, error, and human factors in power generation

    CERN Document Server

    Dhillon, B S

    2014-01-01

    Human reliability, error, and human factors in the area of power generation have been receiving increasing attention in recent years. Each year billions of dollars are spent in the area of power generation to design, construct/manufacture, operate, and maintain various types of power systems around the globe, and such systems often fail due to human error. This book compiles various recent results and data into one volume, and eliminates the need to consult many diverse sources to obtain vital information.  It enables potential readers to delve deeper into a specific area, providing the source of most of the material presented in references at the end of each chapter. Examples along with solutions are also provided at appropriate places, and there are numerous problems for testing the reader’s comprehension.  Chapters cover a broad range of topics, including general methods for performing human reliability and error analysis in power plants, specific human reliability analysis methods for nuclear power pl...

  1. Reliability analysis of flood defence systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steenbergen, H.M.G.M.; Lassing, B.L.; Vrouwenvelder, A.C.W.M.; Waarts, P.H.

    2004-01-01

    In recent years an advanced program for the reliability analysis of flood defence systems has been under development. This paper describes the global data requirements for the application and the setup of the models. The analysis generates the probability of system failure and the contribution of ea

  2. Factor analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Gorsuch, Richard L

    2013-01-01

    Comprehensive and comprehensible, this classic covers the basic and advanced topics essential for using factor analysis as a scientific tool in psychology, education, sociology, and related areas. Emphasizing the usefulness of the techniques, it presents sufficient mathematical background for understanding and sufficient discussion of applications for effective use. This includes not only theory but also the empirical evaluations of the importance of mathematical distinctions for applied scientific analysis.

  3. RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF RING, AGENT AND CLUSTER BASED DISTRIBUTED SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R.SEETHALAKSHMI

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The introduction of pervasive devices and mobile devices has led to immense growth of real time distributed processing. In such context reliability of the computing environment is very important. Reliability is the probability that the devices, links, processes, programs and files work efficiently for the specified period of time and in the specified condition. Distributed systems are available as conventional ring networks, clusters and agent based systems. Reliability of such systems is focused. These networks are heterogeneous and scalable in nature. There are several factors, which are to be considered for reliability estimation. These include the application related factors like algorithms, data-set sizes, memory usage pattern, input-output, communication patterns, task granularity and load-balancing. It also includes the hardware related factors like processor architecture, memory hierarchy, input-output configuration and network. The software related factors concerning reliability are operating systems, compiler, communication protocols, libraries and preprocessor performance. In estimating the reliability of a system, the performance estimation is an important aspect. Reliability analysis is approached using probability.

  4. Analysis on Operation Reliability of Generating Units in 2009

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhou

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents the data on operation reliability indices and relevant analyses toward China's conventional power generating units in 2009. The units brought into the statistical analysis include 100-MW or above thermal generating units, 40-MW or above hydro generating units, and all nuclear generating units. The reliability indices embodied include utilization hours, times and hours of scheduled outages, times and hours of unscheduled outages, equivalent forced outage rate and equivalent availability factor.

  5. Evaluation of the reliability concerning the identification of human factors as contributing factors by a computer supported event analysis (CEA); Einfluss des Menschen auf die Sicherheit von Kernkraftwerken - Bewertung der Zuverlaessigkeit einer computergestuetzten Ereignisanalyse (CEA) in der Kernindustrie

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilpert, B.; Maimer, H.; Loroff, C.

    2000-05-01

    The project's objectives are the evaluation of the reliability concerning the identification of Human Factors as contributing factors by a computer supported event analysis (CEA). CEA is a computer version of SOL (Safety through Organizational Learning). Parts of the first step were interviews with experts from the nuclear power industry and the evaluation of existing computer supported event analysis methods. This information was combined to a requirement profile for the CEA software. The next step contained the implementation of the software in an iterative process of evaluation. The completion of this project was the testing of the CEA software. As a result the testing demonstrated that it is possible to identify contributing factors with CEA validly. In addition, CEA received a very positive feedback from the experts. (orig.) [German] Ziel des Vorhabens ist die Entwicklung und Bewertung der Zuverlaessigkeit einer computergestuetzten Ereignisanalyse (CEA) in der Kernindustrie. CEA stellt eine Umsetzung des Ursachenanalyseverfahrens SOL (Sicherheit durch Organisationales Lernen) in eine Computerversion dar. In diesem Zusammenhang wurde ein an der Praxis orientiertes Anforderungsprofil an die Software erstellt. Grundlage bildeten hierfuer Interviews mit Experten aus der Kerntechnik und die Betrachtung bereits vorhandener computergestuetzter Verfahren. In einem iterativen Verbesserungsprozess wurde die Software erstellt. Den Abschluss bildete die Erprobung der Software. Es liess sich feststellen, dass mit CEA valide kontribuierende Faktoren identifiziert werden. Auch das Feedback der Experten zu CEA war ausnahmslos positiv. (orig.)

  6. Reliability of journal impact factor rankings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Greenwood Darren C

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Journal impact factors and their ranks are used widely by journals, researchers, and research assessment exercises. Methods Based on citations to journals in research and experimental medicine in 2005, Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods were used to estimate the uncertainty associated with these journal performance indicators. Results Intervals representing plausible ranges of values for journal impact factor ranks indicated that most journals cannot be ranked with great precision. Only the top and bottom few journals could place any confidence in their rank position. Intervals were wider and overlapping for most journals. Conclusion Decisions placed on journal impact factors are potentially misleading where the uncertainty associated with the measure is ignored. This article proposes that caution should be exercised in the interpretation of journal impact factors and their ranks, and specifically that a measure of uncertainty should be routinely presented alongside the point estimate.

  7. RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF BENDING ELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    eobe

    performance of any structural system be eva ... by the Joint crete slabs, bending, shear, deflection, reliability, design codes. ement such as ... could be sensitive to this distribution. Table 1: ..... Ang, A. H-S and Tang, W. H. Probability Concepts in.

  8. Reliability Analysis of a Steel Frame

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Sýkora

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available A steel frame with haunches is designed according to Eurocodes. The frame is exposed to self-weight, snow, and wind actions. Lateral-torsional buckling appears to represent the most critical criterion, which is considered as a basis for the limit state function. In the reliability analysis, the probabilistic models proposed by the Joint Committee for Structural Safety (JCSS are used for basic variables. The uncertainty model coefficients take into account the inaccuracy of the resistance model for the haunched girder and the inaccuracy of the action effect model. The time invariant reliability analysis is based on Turkstra's rule for combinations of snow and wind actions. The time variant analysis describes snow and wind actions by jump processes with intermittencies. Assuming a 50-year lifetime, the obtained values of the reliability index b vary within the range from 3.95 up to 5.56. The cross-profile IPE 330 designed according to Eurocodes seems to be adequate. It appears that the time invariant reliability analysis based on Turkstra's rule provides considerably lower values of b than those obtained by the time variant analysis.

  9. Event/Time/Availability/Reliability-Analysis Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viterna, L. A.; Hoffman, D. J.; Carr, Thomas

    1994-01-01

    ETARA is interactive, menu-driven program that performs simulations for analysis of reliability, availability, and maintainability. Written to evaluate performance of electrical power system of Space Station Freedom, but methodology and software applied to any system represented by block diagram. Program written in IBM APL.

  10. Reliability analysis of DOOF for Weibull distribution

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈文华; 崔杰; 樊晓燕; 卢献彪; 相平

    2003-01-01

    Hierarchical Bayesian method for estimating the failure probability Pi under DOOF by taking the quasi-Beta distribution B(pi-1 , 1,1, b ) as the prior distribution is proposed in this paper. The weighted Least Squares Estimate method was used to obtain the formula for computing reliability distribution parameters and estimating the reliability characteristic values under DOOF. Taking one type of aerospace electrical connectoras an example, the correctness of the above method through statistical analysis of electrical connector acceler-ated life test data was verified.

  11. SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINE FOR STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY ANALYSIS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Hong-shuang; L(U) Zhen-zhou; YUE Zhu-feng

    2006-01-01

    Support vector machine (SVM) was introduced to analyze the reliability of the implicit performance function, which is difficult to implement by the classical methods such as the first order reliability method (FORM) and the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). As a classification method where the underlying structural risk minimization inference rule is employed, SVM possesses excellent learning capacity with a small amount of information and good capability of generalization over the complete data. Hence,two approaches, i.e., SVM-based FORM and SVM-based MCS, were presented for the structural reliability analysis of the implicit limit state function. Compared to the conventional response surface method (RSM) and the artificial neural network (ANN), which are widely used to replace the implicit state function for alleviating the computation cost,the more important advantages of SVM are that it can approximate the implicit function with higher precision and better generalization under the small amount of information and avoid the "curse of dimensionality". The SVM-based reliability approaches can approximate the actual performance function over the complete sampling data with the decreased number of the implicit performance function analysis (usually finite element analysis), and the computational precision can satisfy the engineering requirement, which are demonstrated by illustrations.

  12. Recent advances in computational structural reliability analysis methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thacker, Ben H.; Wu, Y.-T.; Millwater, Harry R.; Torng, Tony Y.; Riha, David S.

    1993-01-01

    The goal of structural reliability analysis is to determine the probability that the structure will adequately perform its intended function when operating under the given environmental conditions. Thus, the notion of reliability admits the possibility of failure. Given the fact that many different modes of failure are usually possible, achievement of this goal is a formidable task, especially for large, complex structural systems. The traditional (deterministic) design methodology attempts to assure reliability by the application of safety factors and conservative assumptions. However, the safety factor approach lacks a quantitative basis in that the level of reliability is never known and usually results in overly conservative designs because of compounding conservatisms. Furthermore, problem parameters that control the reliability are not identified, nor their importance evaluated. A summary of recent advances in computational structural reliability assessment is presented. A significant level of activity in the research and development community was seen recently, much of which was directed towards the prediction of failure probabilities for single mode failures. The focus is to present some early results and demonstrations of advanced reliability methods applied to structural system problems. This includes structures that can fail as a result of multiple component failures (e.g., a redundant truss), or structural components that may fail due to multiple interacting failure modes (e.g., excessive deflection, resonate vibration, or creep rupture). From these results, some observations and recommendations are made with regard to future research needs.

  13. Human reliability analysis of control room operators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, Isaac J.A.L.; Carvalho, Paulo Victor R.; Grecco, Claudio H.S. [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2005-07-01

    Human reliability is the probability that a person correctly performs some system required action in a required time period and performs no extraneous action that can degrade the system Human reliability analysis (HRA) is the analysis, prediction and evaluation of work-oriented human performance using some indices as human error likelihood and probability of task accomplishment. Significant progress has been made in the HRA field during the last years, mainly in nuclear area. Some first-generation HRA methods were developed, as THERP (Technique for human error rate prediction). Now, an array of called second-generation methods are emerging as alternatives, for instance ATHEANA (A Technique for human event analysis). The ergonomics approach has as tool the ergonomic work analysis. It focus on the study of operator's activities in physical and mental form, considering at the same time the observed characteristics of operator and the elements of the work environment as they are presented to and perceived by the operators. The aim of this paper is to propose a methodology to analyze the human reliability of the operators of industrial plant control room, using a framework that includes the approach used by ATHEANA, THERP and the work ergonomics analysis. (author)

  14. Model correction factor method for reliability problems involving integrals of non-Gaussian random fields

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Franchin, P.; Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager; Kiureghian, Armen Der

    2002-01-01

    The model correction factor method (MCFM) is used in conjunction with the first-order reliability method (FORM) to solve structural reliability problems involving integrals of non-Gaussian random fields. The approach replaces the limit-state function with an idealized one, in which the integrals...... are considered to be Gaussian. Conventional FORM analysis yields the linearization point of the idealized limit-state surface. A model correction factor is then introduced to push the idealized limit-state surface onto the actual limit-state surface. A few iterations yield a good approximation of the reliability...... reliability method; Model correction factor method; Nataf field integration; Non-Gaussion random field; Random field integration; Structural reliability; Pile foundation reliability...

  15. Reliability Analysis of Elasto-Plastic Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    1984-01-01

    . Failure of this type of system is defined either as formation of a mechanism or by failure of a prescribed number of elements. In the first case failure is independent of the order in which the elements fail, but this is not so by the second definition. The reliability analysis consists of two parts...... are described and the two definitions of failure can be used by the first formulation, but only the failure definition based on formation of a mechanism by the second formulation. The second part of the reliability analysis is an estimate of the failure probability for the structure on the basis...... are obtained if the failure mechanisms are used. Lower bounds can be calculated on the basis of series systems where the elements are the non-failed elements in a non-failed structure (see Augusti & Baratta [3])....

  16. Bridging Resilience Engineering and Human Reliability Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ronald L. Boring

    2010-06-01

    There has been strong interest in the new and emerging field called resilience engineering. This field has been quick to align itself with many existing safety disciplines, but it has also distanced itself from the field of human reliability analysis. To date, the discussion has been somewhat one-sided, with much discussion about the new insights afforded by resilience engineering. This paper presents an attempt to address resilience engineering from the perspective of human reliability analysis (HRA). It is argued that HRA shares much in common with resilience engineering and that, in fact, it can help strengthen nascent ideas in resilience engineering. This paper seeks to clarify and ultimately refute the arguments that have served to divide HRA and resilience engineering.

  17. Reliability analysis of wastewater treatment plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira, Sílvia C; Von Sperling, Marcos

    2008-02-01

    This article presents a reliability analysis of 166 full-scale wastewater treatment plants operating in Brazil. Six different processes have been investigated, comprising septic tank+anaerobic filter, facultative pond, anaerobic pond+facultative pond, activated sludge, upflow anaerobic sludge blanket (UASB) reactors alone and UASB reactors followed by post-treatment. A methodology developed by Niku et al. [1979. Performance of activated sludge process and reliability-based design. J. Water Pollut. Control Assoc., 51(12), 2841-2857] is used for determining the coefficients of reliability (COR), in terms of the compliance of effluent biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD), total suspended solids (TSS), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP) and fecal or thermotolerant coliforms (FC) with discharge standards. The design concentrations necessary to meet the prevailing discharge standards and the expected compliance percentages have been calculated from the COR obtained. The results showed that few plants, under the observed operating conditions, would be able to present reliable performances considering the compliance with the analyzed standards. The article also discusses the importance of understanding the lognormal behavior of the data in setting up discharge standards, in interpreting monitoring results and compliance with the legislation.

  18. Reliability analysis and initial requirements for FC systems and stacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Åström, K.; Fontell, E.; Virtanen, S.

    In the year 2000 Wärtsilä Corporation started an R&D program to develop SOFC systems for CHP applications. The program aims to bring to the market highly efficient, clean and cost competitive fuel cell systems with rated power output in the range of 50-250 kW for distributed generation and marine applications. In the program Wärtsilä focuses on system integration and development. System reliability and availability are key issues determining the competitiveness of the SOFC technology. In Wärtsilä, methods have been implemented for analysing the system in respect to reliability and safety as well as for defining reliability requirements for system components. A fault tree representation is used as the basis for reliability prediction analysis. A dynamic simulation technique has been developed to allow for non-static properties in the fault tree logic modelling. Special emphasis has been placed on reliability analysis of the fuel cell stacks in the system. A method for assessing reliability and critical failure predictability requirements for fuel cell stacks in a system consisting of several stacks has been developed. The method is based on a qualitative model of the stack configuration where each stack can be in a functional, partially failed or critically failed state, each of the states having different failure rates and effects on the system behaviour. The main purpose of the method is to understand the effect of stack reliability, critical failure predictability and operating strategy on the system reliability and availability. An example configuration, consisting of 5 × 5 stacks (series of 5 sets of 5 parallel stacks) is analysed in respect to stack reliability requirements as a function of predictability of critical failures and Weibull shape factor of failure rate distributions.

  19. Representative Sampling for reliable data analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Lars; Esbensen, Kim Harry

    2005-01-01

    regime in order to secure the necessary reliability of: samples (which must be representative, from the primary sampling onwards), analysis (which will not mean anything outside the miniscule analytical volume without representativity ruling all mass reductions involved, also in the laboratory) and data...... analysis (“data” do not exist in isolation of their provenance). The Total Sampling Error (TSE) is by far the dominating contribution to all analytical endeavours, often 100+ times larger than the Total Analytical Error (TAE).We present a summarizing set of only seven Sampling Unit Operations (SUOs...

  20. The quantitative failure of human reliability analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bennett, C.T.

    1995-07-01

    This philosophical treatise argues the merits of Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) in the context of the nuclear power industry. Actually, the author attacks historic and current HRA as having failed in informing policy makers who make decisions based on risk that humans contribute to systems performance. He argues for an HRA based on Bayesian (fact-based) inferential statistics, which advocates a systems analysis process that employs cogent heuristics when using opinion, and tempers itself with a rational debate over the weight given subjective and empirical probabilities.

  1. Reliability of photographic posture analysis of adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazar, Zeynep; Karabicak, Gul Oznur; Tiftikci, Ugur

    2015-10-01

    [Purpose] Postural problems of adolescents needs to be evaluated accurately because they may lead to greater problems in the musculoskeletal system as they develop. Although photographic posture analysis has been frequently used, more simple and accessible methods are still needed. The purpose of this study was to investigate the inter- and intra-rater reliability of photographic posture analysis using MB-ruler software. [Subjects and Methods] Subjects were 30 adolescents (15 girls and 15 boys, mean age: 16.4±0.4 years, mean height 166.3±6.7 cm, mean weight 63.8±15.1 kg) and photographs of their habitual standing posture photographs were taken in the sagittal plane. For the evaluation of postural angles, reflective markers were placed on anatomical landmarks. For angular measurements, MB-ruler (Markus Bader- MB Software Solutions, triangular screen ruler) was used. Photographic evaluations were performed by two observers with a repetition after a week. Test-retest and inter-rater reliability evaluations were calculated using intra-class correlation coefficients (ICC). [Results] Inter-rater (ICC>0.972) and test-retest (ICC>0.774) reliability were found to be in the range of acceptable to excellent. [Conclusion] Reference angles for postural evaluation were found to be reliable and repeatable. The present method was found to be an easy and non-invasive method and it may be utilized by researchers who are in search of an alternative method for photographic postural assessments.

  2. Representative Sampling for reliable data analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Lars; Esbensen, Kim Harry

    2005-01-01

    The Theory of Sampling (TOS) provides a description of all errors involved in sampling of heterogeneous materials as well as all necessary tools for their evaluation, elimination and/or minimization. This tutorial elaborates on—and illustrates—selected central aspects of TOS. The theoretical...... regime in order to secure the necessary reliability of: samples (which must be representative, from the primary sampling onwards), analysis (which will not mean anything outside the miniscule analytical volume without representativity ruling all mass reductions involved, also in the laboratory) and data...

  3. Reliability Analysis of Adhesive Bonded Scarf Joints

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kimiaeifar, Amin; Toft, Henrik Stensgaard; Lund, Erik;

    2012-01-01

    A probabilistic model for the reliability analysis of adhesive bonded scarfed lap joints subjected to static loading is developed. It is representative for the main laminate in a wind turbine blade subjected to flapwise bending. The structural analysis is based on a three dimensional (3D) finite...... the FEA model, and a sensitivity analysis on the influence of various geometrical parameters and material properties on the maximum stress is conducted. Because the yield behavior of many polymeric structural adhesives is dependent on both deviatoric and hydrostatic stress components, different ratios...... of the compressive to tensile adhesive yield stresses in the failure criterion are considered. It is shown that the chosen failure criterion, the scarf angle and the load are significant for the assessment of the probability of failure....

  4. Online cognition: factors facilitating reliable online neuropsychological test results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feenstra, Heleen E M; Vermeulen, Ivar E; Murre, Jaap M J; Schagen, Sanne B

    2017-01-01

    Online neuropsychological test batteries could allow for large-scale cognitive data collection in clinical studies. However, the few online neuropsychological test batteries that are currently available often still require supervision or lack proper psychometric evaluation. In this paper, we have outlined prerequisites for proper development and use of online neuropsychological tests, with the focus on reliable measurement of cognitive function in an unmonitored setting. First, we identified several technical, contextual, and psychological factors that should be taken into account in order to facilitate reliable test results of online tests in the unmonitored setting. Second, we outlined a methodology of quality assurance needed in order to obtain reliable cognitive data in the long run. Based on factors that distinguish the online unmonitored test setting from the traditional face-to-face setting, we provide a set of basic requirements and suggestions for optimal development and use of unmonitored online neuropsychological tests, including suggestions on acquiring reliability, validity, and norm scores. When properly addressing factors that could hamper reliable test results during development and use, online neuropsychological tests could aid large-scale data collection for clinical studies in the future. Investment in both proper development of online neuropsychological test platforms and the performance of accompanying psychometric studies is currently required.

  5. RELAV - RELIABILITY/AVAILABILITY ANALYSIS PROGRAM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowerman, P. N.

    1994-01-01

    RELAV (Reliability/Availability Analysis Program) is a comprehensive analytical tool to determine the reliability or availability of any general system which can be modeled as embedded k-out-of-n groups of items (components) and/or subgroups. Both ground and flight systems at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory have utilized this program. RELAV can assess current system performance during the later testing phases of a system design, as well as model candidate designs/architectures or validate and form predictions during the early phases of a design. Systems are commonly modeled as System Block Diagrams (SBDs). RELAV calculates the success probability of each group of items and/or subgroups within the system assuming k-out-of-n operating rules apply for each group. The program operates on a folding basis; i.e. it works its way towards the system level from the most embedded level by folding related groups into single components. The entire folding process involves probabilities; therefore, availability problems are performed in terms of the probability of success, and reliability problems are performed for specific mission lengths. An enhanced cumulative binomial algorithm is used for groups where all probabilities are equal, while a fast algorithm based upon "Computing k-out-of-n System Reliability", Barlow & Heidtmann, IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON RELIABILITY, October 1984, is used for groups with unequal probabilities. Inputs to the program include a description of the system and any one of the following: 1) availabilities of the items, 2) mean time between failures and mean time to repairs for the items from which availabilities are calculated, 3) mean time between failures and mission length(s) from which reliabilities are calculated, or 4) failure rates and mission length(s) from which reliabilities are calculated. The results are probabilities of success of each group and the system in the given configuration. RELAV assumes exponential failure distributions for

  6. Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Russell, K D; McKay, M K; Sattison, M.B. Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S T [EG and G Idaho, Inc., Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Rasmuson, D M [Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States)

    1992-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 4.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 4.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance.

  7. Reliability Analysis of Tubular Joints in Offshore Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thoft-Christensen, Palle; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    1987-01-01

    Reliability analysis of single tubular joints and offshore platforms with tubular joints is" presented. The failure modes considered are yielding, punching, buckling and fatigue failure. Element reliability as well as systems reliability approaches are used and illustrated by several examples....... Finally, optimal design of tubular.joints with reliability constraints is discussed and illustrated by an example....

  8. Software Architecture Reliability Analysis using Failure Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tekinerdogan, B.; Sözer, Hasan; Aksit, Mehmet

    With the increasing size and complexity of software in embedded systems, software has now become a primary threat for the reliability. Several mature conventional reliability engineering techniques exist in literature but traditionally these have primarily addressed failures in hardware components

  9. Development and Validation of a Coping with Discrimination Scale: Factor Structure, Reliability, and Validity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Meifen; Alvarez, Alvin N.; Ku, Tsun-Yao; Russell, Daniel W.; Bonett, Douglas G.

    2010-01-01

    Four studies were conducted to develop and validate the Coping With Discrimination Scale (CDS). In Study 1, an exploratory factor analysis (N = 328) identified 5 factors: Education/Advocacy, Internalization, Drug and Alcohol Use, Resistance, and Detachment, with internal consistency reliability estimates ranging from 0.72 to 0.90. In Study 2, a…

  10. Human Reliability Analysis for Small Modular Reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ronald L. Boring; David I. Gertman

    2012-06-01

    Because no human reliability analysis (HRA) method was specifically developed for small modular reactors (SMRs), the application of any current HRA method to SMRs represents tradeoffs. A first- generation HRA method like THERP provides clearly defined activity types, but these activity types do not map to the human-system interface or concept of operations confronting SMR operators. A second- generation HRA method like ATHEANA is flexible enough to be used for SMR applications, but there is currently insufficient guidance for the analyst, requiring considerably more first-of-a-kind analyses and extensive SMR expertise in order to complete a quality HRA. Although no current HRA method is optimized to SMRs, it is possible to use existing HRA methods to identify errors, incorporate them as human failure events in the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), and quantify them. In this paper, we provided preliminary guidance to assist the human reliability analyst and reviewer in understanding how to apply current HRA methods to the domain of SMRs. While it is possible to perform a satisfactory HRA using existing HRA methods, ultimately it is desirable to formally incorporate SMR considerations into the methods. This may require the development of new HRA methods. More practicably, existing methods need to be adapted to incorporate SMRs. Such adaptations may take the form of guidance on the complex mapping between conventional light water reactors and small modular reactors. While many behaviors and activities are shared between current plants and SMRs, the methods must adapt if they are to perform a valid and accurate analysis of plant personnel performance in SMRs.

  11. Development of the Italian version of the Pain Stages of Change Questionnaire in patients with chronic low back pain: cross-cultural adaptation, confirmatory factor analysis, reliability and validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monticone, Marco; Ferrante, Simona; Ferrari, Silvano; Mugnai, Raffaele; Pillastrini, Paolo; Rocca, Barbara; Vanti, Carla; Foti, Calogero

    2014-09-01

    Translating, culturally adapting and validating the Italian version of the Pain Stages of Change Questionnaire (PSOCQ-I) to allow its use with Italian-speaking patients with low back pain. The PSOCQ-I was developed by forward-backward translation, a final review by an expert committee and a test of the prefinal version to establish its correspondence with the original English version. Psychometric testing included confirmatory factor analysis, reliability by internal consistency (Cronbach's α) and test-retest reliability (intraclass coefficient correlation), and construct validity by comparing PSOCQ-I with the Pain Catastrophising Scale (PCS), the Tampa Scale of Kinesiophobia (TSK), the Roland Morris Disability Scale (RMDQ), a pain Numerical Rating Scale (NRS), and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (Pearson's correlation). The questionnaire was administered to 308 patients with chronic low back pain. Factor analysis confirmed a four-factor solution (namely, Precontemplation, Contemplation, Action, and Maintenance), achieving an acceptable data-model fit. Internal consistency (α=0.91-93) and test-retest reliability (intraclass coefficient correlation=0.74-0.81) were satisfactory. Construct validity showed moderate correlations between Precontemplation and PCS (r=0.318), TSK (r=0.385), RMDQ (r=0.320) and NRS (r=0.335); low correlations were found between the other PSOCQ subscales and PCS (r=-0.062; 0.039), TSK (r=-0.164; 0.024), RMDQ (r=-0.073; 0.004) and NRS (r=-0.170; 0.020). Low correlations were found between the PSOCQ-I subscales and anxiety (r=-0.132; 0.150) and depression (r=-0.113; 0.186). The PSOCQ was translated successfully into Italian, and proved to have a good factorial structure and psychometric properties that replicated the results of other versions. Its use is recommended for research purposes.

  12. UCLA Loneliness Scale (Version 3): reliability, validity, and factor structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, D W

    1996-02-01

    In this article I evaluated the psychometric properties of the UCLA Loneliness Scale (Version 3). Using data from prior studies of college students, nurses, teachers, and the elderly, analyses of the reliability, validity, and factor structure of this new version of the UCLA Loneliness Scale were conducted. Results indicated that the measure was highly reliable, both in terms of internal consistency (coefficient alpha ranging from .89 to .94) and test-retest reliability over a 1-year period (r = .73). Convergent validity for the scale was indicated by significant correlations with other measures of loneliness. Construct validity was supported by significant relations with measures of the adequacy of the individual's interpersonal relationships, and by correlations between loneliness and measures of health and well-being. Confirmatory factor analyses indicated that a model incorporating a global bipolar loneliness factor along with two method factor reflecting direction of item wording provided a very good fit to the data across samples. Implications of these results for future measurement research on loneliness are discussed.

  13. [Qualitative analysis: theory, steps and reliability].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minayo, Maria Cecília de Souza

    2012-03-01

    This essay seeks to conduct in-depth analysis of qualitative research, based on benchmark authors and the author's own experience. The hypothesis is that in order for an analysis to be considered reliable, it needs to be based on structuring terms of qualitative research, namely the verbs 'comprehend' and 'interpret', and the nouns 'experience', 'common sense' and 'social action'. The 10 steps begin with the construction of the scientific object by its inclusion on the national and international agenda; the development of tools that make the theoretical concepts tangible; conducting field work that involves the researcher empathetically with the participants in the use of various techniques and approaches, making it possible to build relationships, observations and a narrative with perspective. Finally, the author deals with the analysis proper, showing how the object, which has already been studied in all the previous steps, should become a second-order construct, in which the logic of the actors in their diversity and not merely their speech predominates. The final report must be a theoretic, contextual, concise and clear narrative.

  14. Reliability analysis method for slope stability based on sample weight

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhi-gang YANG

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The single safety factor criteria for slope stability evaluation, derived from the rigid limit equilibrium method or finite element method (FEM, may not include some important information, especially for steep slopes with complex geological conditions. This paper presents a new reliability method that uses sample weight analysis. Based on the distribution characteristics of random variables, the minimal sample size of every random variable is extracted according to a small sample t-distribution under a certain expected value, and the weight coefficient of each extracted sample is considered to be its contribution to the random variables. Then, the weight coefficients of the random sample combinations are determined using the Bayes formula, and different sample combinations are taken as the input for slope stability analysis. According to one-to-one mapping between the input sample combination and the output safety coefficient, the reliability index of slope stability can be obtained with the multiplication principle. Slope stability analysis of the left bank of the Baihetan Project is used as an example, and the analysis results show that the present method is reasonable and practicable for the reliability analysis of steep slopes with complex geological conditions.

  15. Semantic Web for Reliable Citation Analysis in Scholarly Publishing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruben Tous

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Analysis of the impact of scholarly artifacts is constrained by current unreliable practices in cross-referencing, citation discovering, and citation indexing and analysis, which have not kept pace with the technological advances that are occurring in several areas like knowledge management and security. Because citation analysis has become the primary component in scholarly impact factor calculation, and considering the relevance of this metric within both the scholarly publishing value chain and (especially important the professional curriculum evaluation of scholarly professionals, we defend that current practices need to be revised. This paper describes a reference architecture that aims to provide openness and reliability to the citation-tracking lifecycle. The solution relies on the use of digitally signed semantic metadata in the different stages of the scholarly publishing workflow in such a manner that authors, publishers, repositories, and citation-analysis systems will have access to independent reliable evidences that are resistant to forgery, impersonation, and repudiation. As far as we know, this is the first paper to combine Semantic Web technologies and public-key cryptography to achieve reliable citation analysis in scholarly publishing

  16. ANALYSIS OF AVAILABILITY AND RELIABILITY IN RHIC OPERATIONS.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    PILAT, F.; INGRASSIA, P.; MICHNOFF, R.

    2006-06-26

    RHIC has been successfully operated for 5 years as a collider for different species, ranging from heavy ions including gold and copper, to polarized protons. We present a critical analysis of reliability data for RHIC that not only identifies the principal factors limiting availability but also evaluates critical choices at design times and assess their impact on present machine performance. RHIC availability data are typical when compared to similar high-energy colliders. The critical analysis of operations data is the basis for studies and plans to improve RHIC machine availability beyond the 50-60% typical of high-energy colliders.

  17. Reliability analysis of an associated system

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈长杰; 魏一鸣; 蔡嗣经

    2002-01-01

    Based on engineering reliability of large complex system and distinct characteristic of soft system, some new conception and theory on the medium elements and the associated system are created. At the same time, the reliability logic model of associated system is provided. In this paper, through the field investigation of the trial operation, the engineering reliability of the paste fill system in No.2 mine of Jinchuan Non-ferrous Metallic Corporation is analyzed by using the theory of associated system.

  18. Sensitivity Analysis for the System Reliability Function

    Science.gov (United States)

    1987-12-01

    reliabilities. The unique feature of the approach is that stunple data collected on K inde-ndent replications using a specified component reliability % v &:•r...Carlo method. The polynomial time algorithm of Agrawaw Pad Satyanarayana (104) fIr the exact reliability computaton for seres- allel systems exemplifies...consideration. As an example for the s-t connectedness problem, let denote -7- edge-disjoint minimal s-t paths of G and let V , denote edge-disjoint

  19. A Novel Two-Terminal Reliability Analysis for MANET

    OpenAIRE

    Xibin Zhao; Zhiyang You; Hai Wan

    2013-01-01

    Mobile ad hoc network (MANET) is a dynamic wireless communication network. Because of the dynamic and infrastructureless characteristics, MANET is vulnerable in reliability. This paper presents a novel reliability analysis for MANET. The node mobility effect and the node reliability based on a real MANET platform are modeled and analyzed. An effective Monte Carlo method for reliability analysis is proposed. A detailed evaluation is performed in terms of the experiment results.

  20. A Novel Two-Terminal Reliability Analysis for MANET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xibin Zhao

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Mobile ad hoc network (MANET is a dynamic wireless communication network. Because of the dynamic and infrastructureless characteristics, MANET is vulnerable in reliability. This paper presents a novel reliability analysis for MANET. The node mobility effect and the node reliability based on a real MANET platform are modeled and analyzed. An effective Monte Carlo method for reliability analysis is proposed. A detailed evaluation is performed in terms of the experiment results.

  1. Solving reliability analysis problems in the polar space

    OpenAIRE

    Ghasem Ezzati; Musa Mammadov; Siddhivinayak Kulkarni

    2014-01-01

    An optimization model that is widely used in engineering problems is Reliability-Based Design Optimization (RBDO). Input data of the RBDO is non-deterministic and constraints are probabilistic. The RBDO aims at minimizing cost ensuring that reliability is at least an accepted level. Reliability analysis is an important step in two-level RBDO approaches. Although many methods have been introduced to apply in reliability analysis loop of the RBDO, there are still many drawbacks in their efficie...

  2. Reliability Analysis and Optimal Design of Monolithic Vertical Wall Breakwaters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Burcharth, Hans F.; Christiani, E.

    1994-01-01

    Reliability analysis and reliability-based design of monolithic vertical wall breakwaters are considered. Probabilistic models of the most important failure modes, sliding failure, failure of the foundation and overturning failure are described . Relevant design variables are identified and relia......Reliability analysis and reliability-based design of monolithic vertical wall breakwaters are considered. Probabilistic models of the most important failure modes, sliding failure, failure of the foundation and overturning failure are described . Relevant design variables are identified...

  3. The Development and Inter-Rater Reliability of the Department of Defense Human Factors Analysis and Classification System, Version 7.0

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-04-09

    human factors ” are causal in a majority of military mishaps. This report also reports on a Department of Defense (DoD) effort to improve the system...used to categorize causal and contributing human factors . Specifically, recent attempts to improve coding methods with the goal of achieving better...only as causal . Factor – Any deviation, out-of-the-ordinary, or deficient action or condition discovered in the course of a mishap investigation

  4. Reliability in Cross-National Content Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter, Jochen; Lauf, Edmund

    2002-01-01

    Investigates how coder characteristics such as language skills, political knowledge, coding experience, and coding certainty affected inter-coder and coder-training reliability. Shows that language skills influenced both reliability types. Suggests that cross-national researchers should pay more attention to cross-national assessments of…

  5. Software architecture reliability analysis using failure scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tekinerdogan, Bedir; Sozer, Hasan; Aksit, Mehmet

    2008-01-01

    With the increasing size and complexity of software in embedded systems, software has now become a primary threat for the reliability. Several mature conventional reliability engineering techniques exist in literature but traditionally these have primarily addressed failures in hardware components a

  6. A reliability analysis of the revised competitiveness index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Paul B; Houston, John M

    2010-06-01

    This study examined the reliability of the Revised Competitiveness Index by investigating the test-retest reliability, interitem reliability, and factor structure of the measure based on a sample of 280 undergraduates (200 women, 80 men) ranging in age from 18 to 28 years (M = 20.1, SD = 2.1). The findings indicate that the Revised Competitiveness Index has high test-retest reliability, high inter-item reliability, and a stable factor structure. The results support the assertion that the Revised Competitiveness Index assesses competitiveness as a stable trait rather than a dynamic state.

  7. Software reliability experiments data analysis and investigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, J. Leslie; Caglayan, Alper K.

    1991-01-01

    The objectives are to investigate the fundamental reasons which cause independently developed software programs to fail dependently, and to examine fault tolerant software structures which maximize reliability gain in the presence of such dependent failure behavior. The authors used 20 redundant programs from a software reliability experiment to analyze the software errors causing coincident failures, to compare the reliability of N-version and recovery block structures composed of these programs, and to examine the impact of diversity on software reliability using subpopulations of these programs. The results indicate that both conceptually related and unrelated errors can cause coincident failures and that recovery block structures offer more reliability gain than N-version structures if acceptance checks that fail independently from the software components are available. The authors present a theory of general program checkers that have potential application for acceptance tests.

  8. Reliability Analysis of Slope Stability by Central Point Method

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Chunge; WU Congliang

    2015-01-01

    Given uncertainty and variability of the slope stability analysis parameter, the paper proceed from the perspective of probability theory and statistics based on the reliability theory. Through the central point method of reliability analysis, performance function about the reliability of slope stability analysis is established. What’s more, the central point method and conventional limit equilibrium methods do comparative analysis by calculation example. The approach’s numerical ...

  9. Individual Differences in Human Reliability Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeffrey C. Joe; Ronald L. Boring

    2014-06-01

    While human reliability analysis (HRA) methods include uncertainty in quantification, the nominal model of human error in HRA typically assumes that operator performance does not vary significantly when they are given the same initiating event, indicators, procedures, and training, and that any differences in operator performance are simply aleatory (i.e., random). While this assumption generally holds true when performing routine actions, variability in operator response has been observed in multiple studies, especially in complex situations that go beyond training and procedures. As such, complexity can lead to differences in operator performance (e.g., operator understanding and decision-making). Furthermore, psychological research has shown that there are a number of known antecedents (i.e., attributable causes) that consistently contribute to observable and systematically measurable (i.e., not random) differences in behavior. This paper reviews examples of individual differences taken from operational experience and the psychological literature. The impact of these differences in human behavior and their implications for HRA are then discussed. We propose that individual differences should not be treated as aleatory, but rather as epistemic. Ultimately, by understanding the sources of individual differences, it is possible to remove some epistemic uncertainty from analyses.

  10. Factor Structure and Reliability of the Revised Conflict Tactics Scales' (CTS2) 10-Factor Model in a Community-Based Female Sample

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yun, Sung Hyun

    2011-01-01

    The present study investigated the factor structure and reliability of the revised Conflict Tactics Scales' (CTS2) 10-factor model in a community-based female sample (N = 261). The underlying factor structure of the 10-factor model was tested by the confirmatory multiple group factor analysis, which demonstrated complex factor cross-loadings…

  11. Reliability Analysis on English Writing Test of SHSEE in Shanghai

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    黄玉麒; 黄芳

    2014-01-01

    As a subjective test, the validity of writing test is acceptable. What about the reliability? Writing test occupies a special position in the senior high school entrance examination (SHSEE for short). It is important to ensure its reliability. By the analysis of recent years’English writing items in SHSEE, the author offer suggestions on how to guarantee the reliability of writing tests.

  12. Fifty Years of THERP and Human Reliability Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ronald L. Boring

    2012-06-01

    In 1962 at a Human Factors Society symposium, Alan Swain presented a paper introducing a Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP). This was followed in 1963 by a Sandia Laboratories monograph outlining basic human error quantification using THERP and, in 1964, by a special journal edition of Human Factors on quantification of human performance. Throughout the 1960s, Swain and his colleagues focused on collecting human performance data for the Sandia Human Error Rate Bank (SHERB), primarily in connection with supporting the reliability of nuclear weapons assembly in the US. In 1969, Swain met with Jens Rasmussen of Risø National Laboratory and discussed the applicability of THERP to nuclear power applications. By 1975, in WASH-1400, Swain had articulated the use of THERP for nuclear power applications, and the approach was finalized in the watershed publication of the NUREG/CR-1278 in 1983. THERP is now 50 years old, and remains the most well known and most widely used HRA method. In this paper, the author discusses the history of THERP, based on published reports and personal communication and interviews with Swain. The author also outlines the significance of THERP. The foundations of human reliability analysis are found in THERP: human failure events, task analysis, performance shaping factors, human error probabilities, dependence, event trees, recovery, and pre- and post-initiating events were all introduced in THERP. While THERP is not without its detractors, and it is showing signs of its age in the face of newer technological applications, the longevity of THERP is a testament of its tremendous significance. THERP started the field of human reliability analysis. This paper concludes with a discussion of THERP in the context of newer methods, which can be seen as extensions of or departures from Swain’s pioneering work.

  13. Analysis on Some of Software Reliability Models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    Software reliability & maintainability evaluation tool (SRMET 3.0) is introducted in detail in this paper,which was developed by Software Evaluation and Test Center of China Aerospace Mechanical Corporation. SRMET 3.0is supported by seven soft ware reliability models and four software maintainability models. Numerical characteristicsfor all those models are deeply studied in this paper, and corresponding numerical algorithms for each model are alsogiven in the paper.

  14. 核电厂传统人员可靠性分析方法中引入班组因素的研究%Integrating Team Factor Into Current Human Reliability Analysis of Nuclear Power Plant

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    赵军; 童节娟; 刘涛; 玉宇

    2011-01-01

    In large complex systems such as nuclear power plants (NPPs), most people work in teams or groups. However, the current human reliability analysis (HRA) methods used in probability safety assessment (PSA) of NPPs are generally focused on the assessment of individual performance. The technique for human error rate prediction (THERP) and human cognitive reliability (HCR) are the most widely used human reliability analysis methods. Therefore, the limitations will exist consequentially when we use the current HRA methods to quantify the actual human performance situation in the control room of NPPs. In this paper, a new performance shaping factor (PSF) named team performance shaping factor (TPSF) was defined and a qualitative framework used to integrate the TPSF into THERP method and HCR model respectively in accordance with the existing architectures was proposed. The process for evaluating the grade ofTPSF was put forward, and the question that should be solved in order to accomplish the quantitative analysis was discussed. The result shows that integrating team factor into current HRA will enhance the ability and validity in modeling the human performance in team context.%在核电厂等大型复杂系统中,人员干预行为通常以班组的协作来完成,而目前核电厂概率安全评价(PSA)采用的以人的失误率预测技术(THERP)和人的认知可靠性(HCR)方法为代表的人员可靠性分析(HRA)方法主要关注对个人绩效的影响,它们在评估核电厂主控室班组绩效时存在一定局限.本文定义一种新的绩效形成因子“班组绩效形成因子(TPSF)”,并将其合理地引入THERP和HCR方法的定量化体系中,使它们可在一定程度上体现班组环境对人员绩效的影响.文章提出了TPSF等级的评价方法及将其引入THERP和HCR方法的定性实施框架.结果证明,合理地将班组因素引入传统HRA方法能改进它们对班组环境下人员绩效模化的合理性.

  15. Feelings about culture scales: development, factor structure, reliability, and validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maffini, Cara S; Wong, Y Joel

    2015-04-01

    Although measures of cultural identity, values, and behavior exist in the multicultural psychological literature, there is currently no measure that explicitly assesses ethnic minority individuals' positive and negative affect toward culture. Therefore, we developed 2 new measures called the Feelings About Culture Scale--Ethnic Culture and Feelings About Culture Scale--Mainstream American Culture and tested their psychometric properties. In 6 studies, we piloted the measures, conducted factor analyses to clarify their factor structure, and examined reliability and validity. The factor structure revealed 2 dimensions reflecting positive and negative affect for each measure. Results provided evidence for convergent, discriminant, criterion-related, and incremental validity as well as the reliability of the scales. The Feelings About Culture Scales are the first known measures to examine both positive and negative affect toward an individual's ethnic culture and mainstream American culture. The focus on affect captures dimensions of psychological experiences that differ from cognitive and behavioral constructs often used to measure cultural orientation. These measures can serve as a valuable contribution to both research and counseling by providing insight into the nuanced affective experiences ethnic minority individuals have toward culture.

  16. Reliability Analysis of a Mono-Tower Platform

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Enevoldsen, I.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard;

    In this paper a reliability analysis of a Mono-tower platform is presented. The failure modes, considered, are yelding in the tube cross-sections, and fatigue failure in the butt welds. The fatigue failure mode is investigated with a fatigue model, where the fatigue strength is expressed through SN...... for the fatigue limit state is a significant failure mode for the Mono.tower platform. Further, it is shown for the fatigue failure mode the the largest contributions to the overall uncertainty are due to the damping ratio, the inertia coefficient, the stress concentration factor, the model uncertainties...

  17. Reliability Analysis of a Mono-Tower Platform

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Enevoldsen, I.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard;

    1990-01-01

    In this paper, a reliability analysis of a Mono-tower platform is presented. Te failure modes considered are yielding in the tube cross sections and fatigue failure in the butts welds. The fatigue failrue mode is investigated with a fatigue model, where the fatigue strength is expressed through SN...... that the fatigue limit state is a significant failure mode for the Mono-tower platform. Further, it is shown for the fatigue failure mode that the largest contributions to the overall uncertainty are due to the damping ratio, the inertia coefficient, the stress concentration factor, the model uncertainties...

  18. System reliability analysis for kinematic performance of planar mechanisms

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG YiMin; HUANG XianZhen; ZHANG XuFang; HE XiangDong; WEN BangChun

    2009-01-01

    Based on the reliability and mechanism kinematic accuracy theories, we propose a general methodology for system reliability analysis of kinematic performance of planar mechanisms. The loop closure equations are used to estimate the kinematic performance errors of planar mechanisms. Reliability and system reliability theories are introduced to develop the limit state functions (LSF) for failure of kinematic performance qualities. The statistical fourth moment method and the Edgeworth series technique are used on system reliability analysis for kinematic performance of planar mechanisms, which relax the restrictions of probability distribution of design variables. Finally, the practicality, efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method are demonstrated by numerical examples.

  19. Estimating reliability coefficients with heterogeneous item weightings using Stata: A factor based approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boermans, M.A.; Kattenberg, M.A.C.

    2011-01-01

    We show how to estimate a Cronbach's alpha reliability coefficient in Stata after running a principal component or factor analysis. Alpha evaluates to what extent items measure the same underlying content when the items are combined into a scale or used for latent variable. Stata allows for testing

  20. Reliability Analysis for Tunnel Supports System by Using Finite Element Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Bukaçi

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Reliability analysis is a method that can be used in almost any geotechnical engineering problem. Using this method requires the knowledge of parameter uncertainties, which can be expressed by their standard deviation value. By performing reliability analysis to tunnel supports design, can be obtained a range of safety factors and by using them, probability of failure can be calculated. Problem becomes more complex when this analysis is performed for numerical methods, such as Finite Element Method. This paper gives a solution to how reliability analysis can be performed to design tunnel supports, by using Point Estimate Method to calculate reliability index. As a case study, is chosen one of the energy tunnels at Fan Hydropower plant, in Rrëshen Albania. As results, values of factor of safety and probability of failure are calculated. Also some suggestions using reliability analysis with numerical methods are given.

  1. Analysis on testing and operational reliability of software

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHAO Jing; LIU Hong-wei; CUI Gang; WANG Hui-qiang

    2008-01-01

    Software reliability was estimated based on NHPP software reliability growth models. Testing reliability and operational reliability may be essentially different. On the basis of analyzing similarities and differences of the testing phase and the operational phase, using the concept of operational reliability and the testing reliability, different forms of the comparison between the operational failure ratio and the predicted testing failure ratio were conducted, and the mathematical discussion and analysis were performed in detail. Finally, software optimal release was studied using software failure data. The results show that two kinds of conclusions can be derived by applying this method, one conclusion is to continue testing to meet the required reliability level of users, and the other is that testing stops when the required operational reliability is met, thus the testing cost can be reduced.

  2. Human Factors Analysis in Software Engineering

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xu Ren-zuo; Ma Ruo-feng; Liu Li-na; Xiong Zhong-wei

    2004-01-01

    The general human factors analysis analyzes human functions, effects and influence in a system. But in a narrow sense, it analyzes human influence upon the reliability of a system, it includes traditional human reliability analysis, human error analysis, man-machine interface analysis, human character analysis, and others. A software development project in software engineering is successful or not to be completely determined by human factors. In this paper, we discuss the human factors intensions, declare the importance of human factors analysis for software engineering by listed some instances. At last, we probe preliminarily into the mentality that a practitioner in software engineering should possess.

  3. IDHEAS – A NEW APPROACH FOR HUMAN RELIABILITY ANALYSIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    G. W. Parry; J.A Forester; V.N. Dang; S. M. L. Hendrickson; M. Presley; E. Lois; J. Xing

    2013-09-01

    This paper describes a method, IDHEAS (Integrated Decision-Tree Human Event Analysis System) that has been developed jointly by the US NRC and EPRI as an improved approach to Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) that is based on an understanding of the cognitive mechanisms and performance influencing factors (PIFs) that affect operator responses. The paper describes the various elements of the method, namely the performance of a detailed cognitive task analysis that is documented in a crew response tree (CRT), and the development of the associated time-line to identify the critical tasks, i.e. those whose failure results in a human failure event (HFE), and an approach to quantification that is based on explanations of why the HFE might occur.

  4. Mechanical reliability analysis of tubes intended for hydrocarbons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nahal, Mourad; Khelif, Rabia [Badji Mokhtar University, Annaba (Algeria)

    2013-02-15

    Reliability analysis constitutes an essential phase in any study concerning reliability. Many industrialists evaluate and improve the reliability of their products during the development cycle - from design to startup (design, manufacture, and exploitation) - to develop their knowledge on cost/reliability ratio and to control sources of failure. In this study, we obtain results for hardness, tensile, and hydrostatic tests carried out on steel tubes for transporting hydrocarbons followed by statistical analysis. Results obtained allow us to conduct a reliability study based on resistance request. Thus, index of reliability is calculated and the importance of the variables related to the tube is presented. Reliability-based assessment of residual stress effects is applied to underground pipelines under a roadway, with and without active corrosion. Residual stress has been found to greatly increase probability of failure, especially in the early stages of pipe lifetime.

  5. Analysis of Reliability of CET Band4

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王铁琳

    2005-01-01

    CET Band 4 has been carried out for more than a decade. It becomes so large- scaled, so popular and so influential that many testing experts and foreign language teachers are willing to do research on it. In this paper, I will mainly analyse its reliability from the perspective of writing test and speaking test.

  6. Bypassing BDD Construction for Reliability Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Williams, Poul Frederick; Nikolskaia, Macha; Rauzy, Antoine

    2000-01-01

    In this note, we propose a Boolean Expression Diagram (BED)-based algorithm to compute the minimal p-cuts of boolean reliability models such as fault trees. BEDs make it possible to bypass the Binary Decision Diagram (BDD) construction, which is the main cost of fault tree assessment....

  7. Reliability Analysis of an Offshore Structure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Thoft-Christensen, Palle; Rackwitz, R.

    1992-01-01

    A jacket type offshore structure from the North Sea is considered. The time variant reliability is estimated for failure defined as brittie fradure and crack through the tubular roerober walls. The stochastic modeiling is described. The hot spot stress speetral moments as fundion of the stochastic...

  8. Reliability sensitivity-based correlation coefficient calculation in structural reliability analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Zhou; Zhang, Yimin; Zhang, Xufang; Huang, Xianzhen

    2012-05-01

    The correlation coefficients of random variables of mechanical structures are generally chosen with experience or even ignored, which cannot actually reflect the effects of parameter uncertainties on reliability. To discuss the selection problem of the correlation coefficients from the reliability-based sensitivity point of view, the theory principle of the problem is established based on the results of the reliability sensitivity, and the criterion of correlation among random variables is shown. The values of the correlation coefficients are obtained according to the proposed principle and the reliability sensitivity problem is discussed. Numerical studies have shown the following results: (1) If the sensitivity value of correlation coefficient ρ is less than (at what magnitude 0.000 01), then the correlation could be ignored, which could simplify the procedure without introducing additional error. (2) However, as the difference between ρ s, that is the most sensitive to the reliability, and ρ R , that is with the smallest reliability, is less than 0.001, ρ s is suggested to model the dependency of random variables. This could ensure the robust quality of system without the loss of safety requirement. (3) In the case of | E abs|>0.001 and also | E rel|>0.001, ρ R should be employed to quantify the correlation among random variables in order to ensure the accuracy of reliability analysis. Application of the proposed approach could provide a practical routine for mechanical design and manufactory to study the reliability and reliability-based sensitivity of basic design variables in mechanical reliability analysis and design.

  9. Tailoring a Human Reliability Analysis to Your Industry Needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMott, D. L.

    2016-01-01

    Companies at risk of accidents caused by human error that result in catastrophic consequences include: airline industry mishaps, medical malpractice, medication mistakes, aerospace failures, major oil spills, transportation mishaps, power production failures and manufacturing facility incidents. Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) is used to analyze the inherent risk of human behavior or actions introducing errors into the operation of a system or process. These assessments can be used to identify where errors are most likely to arise and the potential risks involved if they do occur. Using the basic concepts of HRA, an evolving group of methodologies are used to meet various industry needs. Determining which methodology or combination of techniques will provide a quality human reliability assessment is a key element to developing effective strategies for understanding and dealing with risks caused by human errors. There are a number of concerns and difficulties in "tailoring" a Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) for different industries. Although a variety of HRA methodologies are available to analyze human error events, determining the most appropriate tools to provide the most useful results can depend on industry specific cultures and requirements. Methodology selection may be based on a variety of factors that include: 1) how people act and react in different industries, 2) expectations based on industry standards, 3) factors that influence how the human errors could occur such as tasks, tools, environment, workplace, support, training and procedure, 4) type and availability of data, 5) how the industry views risk & reliability, and 6) types of emergencies, contingencies and routine tasks. Other considerations for methodology selection should be based on what information is needed from the assessment. If the principal concern is determination of the primary risk factors contributing to the potential human error, a more detailed analysis method may be employed

  10. Reliability analysis of ceramic matrix composite laminates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, David J.; Wetherhold, Robert C.

    1991-01-01

    At a macroscopic level, a composite lamina may be considered as a homogeneous orthotropic solid whose directional strengths are random variables. Incorporation of these random variable strengths into failure models, either interactive or non-interactive, allows for the evaluation of the lamina reliability under a given stress state. Using a non-interactive criterion for demonstration purposes, laminate reliabilities are calculated assuming previously established load sharing rules for the redistribution of load as the failure of laminae occur. The matrix cracking predicted by ACK theory is modeled to allow a loss of stiffness in the fiber direction. The subsequent failure in the fiber direction is controlled by a modified bundle theory. Results using this modified bundle model are compared with previous models which did not permit separate consideration of matrix cracking, as well as to results obtained from experimental data.

  11. DFTCalc: Reliability centered maintenance via fault tree analysis (tool paper)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Guck, Dennis; Spel, Jip; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette; Butler, Michael; Conchon, Sylvain; Zaïdi, Fatiha

    2015-01-01

    Reliability, availability, maintenance and safety (RAMS) analysis is essential in the evaluation of safety critical systems like nuclear power plants and the railway infrastructure. A widely used methodology within RAMS analysis are fault trees, representing failure propagations throughout a system.

  12. DFTCalc: reliability centered maintenance via fault tree analysis (tool paper)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Guck, Dennis; Spel, Jip; Stoelinga, Mariëlle; Butler, Michael; Conchon, Sylvain; Zaïdi, Fatiha

    2015-01-01

    Reliability, availability, maintenance and safety (RAMS) analysis is essential in the evaluation of safety critical systems like nuclear power plants and the railway infrastructure. A widely used methodology within RAMS analysis are fault trees, representing failure propagations throughout a system.

  13. Foundations of factor analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Mulaik, Stanley A

    2009-01-01

    Introduction Factor Analysis and Structural Theories Brief History of Factor Analysis as a Linear Model Example of Factor AnalysisMathematical Foundations for Factor Analysis Introduction Scalar AlgebraVectorsMatrix AlgebraDeterminants Treatment of Variables as Vectors Maxima and Minima of FunctionsComposite Variables and Linear Transformations Introduction Composite Variables Unweighted Composite VariablesDifferentially Weighted Composites Matrix EquationsMulti

  14. Reliability analysis of PLC safety equipment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, J.; Kim, J. Y. [Chungnam Nat. Univ., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2006-06-15

    FMEA analysis for Nuclear Safety Grade PLC, failure rate prediction for nuclear safety grade PLC, sensitivity analysis for components failure rate of nuclear safety grade PLC, unavailability analysis support for nuclear safety system.

  15. Reliability and risk analysis data base development: an historical perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fragola, Joseph R

    1996-02-01

    Collection of empirical data and data base development for use in the prediction of the probability of future events has a long history. Dating back at least to the 17th century, safe passage events and mortality events were collected and analyzed to uncover prospective underlying classes and associated class attributes. Tabulations of these developed classes and associated attributes formed the underwriting basis for the fledgling insurance industry. Much earlier, master masons and architects used design rules of thumb to capture the experience of the ages and thereby produce structures of incredible longevity and reliability (Antona, E., Fragola, J. and Galvagni, R. Risk based decision analysis in design. Fourth SRA Europe Conference Proceedings, Rome, Italy, 18-20 October 1993). These rules served so well in producing robust designs that it was not until almost the 19th century that the analysis (Charlton, T.M., A History Of Theory Of Structures In The 19th Century, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1982) of masonry voussoir arches, begun by Galileo some two centuries earlier (Galilei, G. Discorsi e dimostrazioni mathematiche intorno a due nuove science, (Discourses and mathematical demonstrations concerning two new sciences, Leiden, The Netherlands, 1638), was placed on a sound scientific basis. Still, with the introduction of new materials (such as wrought iron and steel) and the lack of theoretical knowledge and computational facilities, approximate methods of structural design abounded well into the second half of the 20th century. To this day structural designers account for material variations and gaps in theoretical knowledge by employing factors of safety (Benvenuto, E., An Introduction to the History of Structural Mechanics, Part II: Vaulted Structures and Elastic Systems, Springer-Verlag, NY, 1991) or codes of practice (ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code, ASME, New York) originally developed in the 19th century (Antona, E., Fragola, J. and

  16. Earth slope reliability analysis under seismic loadings using neural network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    PENG Huai-sheng; DENG Jian; GU De-sheng

    2005-01-01

    A new method was proposed to cope with the earth slope reliability problem under seismic loadings. The algorithm integrates the concepts of artificial neural network, the first order second moment reliability method and the deterministic stability analysis method of earth slope. The performance function and its derivatives in slope stability analysis under seismic loadings were approximated by a trained multi-layer feed-forward neural network with differentiable transfer functions. The statistical moments calculated from the performance function values and the corresponding gradients using neural network were then used in the first order second moment method for the calculation of the reliability index in slope safety analysis. Two earth slope examples were presented for illustrating the applicability of the proposed approach. The new method is effective in slope reliability analysis. And it has potential application to other reliability problems of complicated engineering structure with a considerably large number of random variables.

  17. The Obsessive Compulsive Cocaine Scale: assessment of factor structure, reliability, and validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jardin, Bianca F; Larowe, Steven D; Hall, Brian J; Malcolm, Robert J

    2011-12-01

    The present study assessed the factor structure, reliability, test retest, convergent validity, and predictive validity of the Obsessive Compulsive Cocaine Scale (OCCS), a newly developed questionnaire adapted from the Obsessive Compulsive Drinking Scale (OCDS). The questionnaire was administered to 189 cocaine-dependent individuals participating in two medication treatment trials for cocaine dependence. Confirmatory factor analysis of this measure revealed that it primarily assesses two factors, obsessions and compulsions. In addition, the data provided strong support for the internal consistency, test-retest reliability, predictive validity, and convergent validity of this two-factor measure. Overall, the data provide support for the psychometric strength of a modified version of the OCDS specifically designed to assess obsessive and compulsive cocaine use among those with cocaine dependence. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Design and Analysis for Reliability of Wireless Sensor Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongxian Song

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Reliability is an important performance indicator of wireless sensor network, to some application fields, which have high demands in terms of reliability, it is particularly important to ensure reliability of network. At present, the reliability research findings of wireless sensor network are much more at home and abroad, but they mainly improve network reliability from the networks topology, reliable protocol and application layer fault correction and so on, and reliability of network is comprehensive considered from hardware and software aspects is much less. This paper adopts bionic hardware to implement bionic reconfigurable of wireless sensor network nodes, so as to the nodes have able to change their structure and behavior autonomously and dynamically, in the cases of the part hardware are failure, and the nodes can realize bionic self-healing. Secondly, Markov state diagram and probability analysis method are adopted to realize solution of functional model for reliability, establish the relationship between reliability and characteristic parameters for sink nodes, analyze sink nodes reliability model, so as to determine the reasonable parameters of the model and ensure reliability of sink nodes.

  19. Reliability-Analysis of Offshore Structures using Directional Loads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Bloch, Allan; Sterndorff, M. J.

    2000-01-01

    Reliability analyses of offshore structures such as steel jacket platforms are usually performed using stochastic models for the wave loads based on the omnidirectional wave height. However, reliability analyses with respect to structural failure modes such as total collapse of a structure...... heights from the central part of the North Sea. It is described how the stochastic model for the directional wave heights can be used in a reliability analysis where total collapse of offshore steel jacket platforms is considered....

  20. Statistical analysis on reliability and serviceability of caterpillar tractor

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Jinwu; LIU Jiafu; XU Zhongxiang

    2007-01-01

    For further understanding reliability and serviceability of tractor and to furnish scientific and technical theories, based on the promotion and application of it, the following experiments and statistical analysis on reliability (reliability and MTBF) serviceability (service and MTTR) of Donfanghong-1002 and Dongfanghong-802 were conducted. The result showed that the intervals of average troubles of these two tractors were 182.62 h and 160.2 h, respectively, and the weakest assembly of them was engine part.

  1. Inclusion of fatigue effects in human reliability analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Griffith, Candice D. [Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN (United States); Mahadevan, Sankaran, E-mail: sankaran.mahadevan@vanderbilt.edu [Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN (United States)

    2011-11-15

    The effect of fatigue on human performance has been observed to be an important factor in many industrial accidents. However, defining and measuring fatigue is not easily accomplished. This creates difficulties in including fatigue effects in probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) of complex engineering systems that seek to include human reliability analysis (HRA). Thus the objectives of this paper are to discuss (1) the importance of the effects of fatigue on performance, (2) the difficulties associated with defining and measuring fatigue, (3) the current status of inclusion of fatigue in HRA methods, and (4) the future directions and challenges for the inclusion of fatigue, specifically sleep deprivation, in HRA. - Highlights: >We highlight the need for fatigue and sleep deprivation effects on performance to be included in human reliability analysis (HRA) methods. Current methods do not explicitly include sleep deprivation effects. > We discuss the difficulties in defining and measuring fatigue. > We review sleep deprivation research, and discuss the limitations and future needs of the current HRA methods.

  2. Modified Bayesian Kriging for Noisy Response Problems for Reliability Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    surrogate model is used to do the MCS prediction for the reliability analysis for the sampling- based reliability-based design optimization ( RBDO ) method...D., Choi, K. K., Noh, Y., & Zhao, L. (2011). Sampling-based stochastic sensitivity analysis using score functions for RBDO problems with correlated...K., and Zhao, L., (2011). Sampling- based RBDO using the stochastic sensitivity analysis and dynamic Kriging method. Structural and

  3. Reliability analysis of large, complex systems using ASSIST

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Sally C.

    1988-01-01

    The SURE reliability analysis program is discussed as well as the ASSIST model generation program. It is found that semi-Markov modeling using model reduction strategies with the ASSIST program can be used to accurately solve problems at least as complex as other reliability analysis tools can solve. Moreover, semi-Markov analysis provides the flexibility needed for modeling realistic fault-tolerant systems.

  4. Temporal reliability of cytokines and growth factors in EDTA plasma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marrangoni Adele M

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cytokines are involved in the development of chronic diseases, including cancer. It is important to evaluate the temporal reproducibility of cytokines in plasma prior to conducting epidemiologic studies utilizing these markers. Findings We assessed the temporal reliability of CRP, 22 cytokines and their soluble receptors (IL-1α, IL-1β, IL-1RA, IL-2, sIL-2R, IL-4, IL-5, IL-6, sIL-6R, IL-7, IL-8, IL-10, IL-12p40, IL-12p70, IL-13, IL-15, IL-17, TNFα, sTNF-R1, sTNF-R2, IFNα, IFNγ and eight growth factors (GM-CSF, EGF, bFGF, G-CSF, HGF, VEGF, EGFR, ErbB2 in repeated EDTA plasma samples collected an average of two years apart from 18 healthy women (age range: 42-62 enrolled in a prospective cohort study. We also estimated the correlation between serum and plasma biomarker levels using 18 paired clinical samples from postmenopausal women (age range: 75-86. Twenty-six assays were able to detect their analytes in at least 70% of samples. Of those 26 assays, we observed moderate to high intra-class correlation coefficients (ICCs(ranging from 0.53-0.89 for 22 assays, and low ICCs (0-0.47 for four assays. Serum and plasma levels were highly correlated (r > 0.6 for most markers, except for seven assays (r Conclusions For 22 of the 31 biomarkers, a single plasma measurement is a reliable estimate of a woman's average level over a two-year period.

  5. Evaluating some Reliability Analysis Methodologies in Seismic Design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. E. Ghoulbzouri

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Accounting for uncertainties that are present in geometric and material data of reinforced concrete buildings is performed in this study within the context of performance based seismic engineering design. Approach: Reliability of the expected performance state is assessed by using various methodologies based on finite element nonlinear static pushover analysis and specialized reliability software package. Reliability approaches that were considered included full coupling with an external finite element code and surface response based methods in conjunction with either first order reliability method or importance sampling method. Various types of probability distribution functions that model parameters uncertainties were introduced. Results: The probability of failure according to the used reliability analysis method and to the selected distribution of probabilities was obtained. Convergence analysis of the importance sampling method was performed. The required duration of analysis as function of the used reliability method was evaluated. Conclusion/Recommendations: It was found that reliability results are sensitive to the used reliability analysis method and to the selected distribution of probabilities. Durations of analysis for coupling methods were found to be higher than those associated to surface response based methods; one should however include time needed to derive these lasts. For the reinforced concrete building considered in this study, it was found that significant variations exist between all the considered reliability methodologies. The full coupled importance sampling method is recommended, but the first order reliability method applied on a surface response model can be used with good accuracy. Finally, the distributions of probabilities should be carefully identified since giving the mean and the standard deviation were found to be insufficient.

  6. Reliability Distribution of Numerical Control Lathe Based on Correlation Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiaoyan Qi; Guixiang Shen; Yingzhi Zhang; Shuguang Sun; Bingkun Chen

    2016-01-01

    Combined Reliability distribution with correlation analysis, a new method has been proposed to make Reliability distribution where considering the elements about structure correlation and failure correlation of subsystems. Firstly, we make a sequence for subsystems by means of TOPSIS which comprehends the considerations of Reliability allocation, and introducing a Copula connecting function to set up a distribution model based on structure correlation, failure correlation and target correlation, and then acquiring reliability target area of all subsystems by Matlab. In this method, not only the traditional distribution considerations are concerned, but also correlation influences are involved, to achieve supplementing information and optimizing distribution.

  7. Reliability and safety analysis of redundant vehicle management computer system

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Shi Jian; Meng Yixuan; Wang Shaoping; Bian Mengmeng; Yan Dungong

    2013-01-01

    Redundant techniques are widely adopted in vehicle management computer (VMC) to ensure that VMC has high reliability and safety. At the same time, it makes VMC have special char-acteristics, e.g., failure correlation, event simultaneity, and failure self-recovery. Accordingly, the reliability and safety analysis to redundant VMC system (RVMCS) becomes more difficult. Aimed at the difficulties in RVMCS reliability modeling, this paper adopts generalized stochastic Petri nets to establish the reliability and safety models of RVMCS. Then this paper analyzes RVMCS oper-ating states and potential threats to flight control system. It is verified by simulation that the reli-ability of VMC is not the product of hardware reliability and software reliability, and the interactions between hardware and software faults can reduce the real reliability of VMC obviously. Furthermore, the failure undetected states and false alarming states inevitably exist in RVMCS due to the influences of limited fault monitoring coverage and false alarming probability of fault mon-itoring devices (FMD). RVMCS operating in some failure undetected states will produce fatal threats to the safety of flight control system. RVMCS operating in some false alarming states will reduce utility of RVMCS obviously. The results abstracted in this paper can guide reliable VMC and efficient FMD designs. The methods adopted in this paper can also be used to analyze other intelligent systems’ reliability.

  8. Seismic reliability analysis of large electric power systems

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    何军; 李杰

    2004-01-01

    Based on the De. Morgan laws and Boolean simplification, a recursive decomposition method is introduced in this paper to identity the main exclusive safe paths and failed paths of a network. The reliability or the reliability bound of a network can be conveniently expressed as the summation of the joint probabilities of these paths. Under the multivariate normal distribution assumption, a conditioned reliability index method is developed to evaluate joint probabilities of various exclusive safe paths and failed paths, and, finally, the seismic reliability or the reliability bound of an electric power system.Examples given in thc paper show that the method is very simple and provides accurate results in the seismic reliability analysis.

  9. Non-probabilistic fuzzy reliability analysis of pile foundation stability by interval theory

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    Randomness and fuzziness are among the attributes of the influential factors for stability assessment of pile foundation.According to these two characteristics, the triangular fuzzy number analysis approach was introduced to determine the probability-distributed function of mechanical parameters. Then the functional function of reliability analysis was constructed based on the study of bearing mechanism of pile foundation, and the way to calculate interval values of the functional function was developed by using improved interval-truncation approach and operation rules of interval numbers. Afterwards, the non-probabilistic fuzzy reliability analysis method was applied to assessing the pile foundation, from which a method was presented for nonprobabilistic fuzzy reliability analysis of pile foundation stability by interval theory. Finally, the probability distribution curve of nonprobabilistic fuzzy reliability indexes of practical pile foundation was concluded. Its failure possibility is 0.91%, which shows that the pile foundation is stable and reliable.

  10. Reliability Analysis of Structural Timber Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Hoffmeyer, P.

    2000-01-01

    characteristics of the load-bearing capacity is estimated in the form of a characteristic value and a coefficient of variation. These two values are of primary importance for codes of practice based on the partial safety factor format since the partial safety factor is closely related to the coefficient...... the above stochastic models, statistical characteristics (distribution function, 5% quantile and coefficient of variation) are determined. Generally, the results show that taking the system effects into account the characteristic load bearing capacity can be increased and the partial safety factor decreased...... of variation. In the paper a stochastic model is described for the strength of a single piece of timber taking into account the stochastic variation of the strength and stiffness with length. Also stochastic models for different types of loads are formulated. First, simple representative systems with different...

  11. Simulation Approach to Mission Risk and Reliability Analysis Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — It is proposed to develop and demonstrate an integrated total-system risk and reliability analysis approach that is based on dynamic, probabilistic simulation. This...

  12. Partial Safety Factors and Target Reliability Level in Danish Structural Codes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Hansen, J. O.; Nielsen, T. A.

    2001-01-01

    The partial safety factors in the newly revised Danish structural codes have been derived using a reliability-based calibration. The calibrated partial safety factors result in the same average reliability level as in the previous codes, but a much more uniform reliability level has been obtained...

  13. A survey on reliability and safety analysis techniques of robot systems in nuclear power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eom, H.S.; Kim, J.H.; Lee, J.C.; Choi, Y.R.; Moon, S.S

    2000-12-01

    The reliability and safety analysis techniques was surveyed for the purpose of overall quality improvement of reactor inspection system which is under development in our current project. The contents of this report are : 1. Reliability and safety analysis techniques suvey - Reviewed reliability and safety analysis techniques are generally accepted techniques in many industries including nuclear industry. And we selected a few techniques which are suitable for our robot system. They are falut tree analysis, failure mode and effect analysis, reliability block diagram, markov model, combinational method, and simulation method. 2. Survey on the characteristics of robot systems which are distinguished from other systems and which are important to the analysis. 3. Survey on the nuclear environmental factors which affect the reliability and safety analysis of robot system 4. Collection of the case studies of robot reliability and safety analysis which are performed in foreign countries. The analysis results of this survey will be applied to the improvement of reliability and safety of our robot system and also will be used for the formal qualification and certification of our reactor inspection system.

  14. Reliability analysis of ship structure system with multi-defects

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    This paper analyzes the influence of multi-defects including the initial distortions,welding residual stresses,cracks and local dents on the ultimate strength of the plate element,and has worked out expressions of reliability calculation and sensitivity analysis of the plate element.Reliability analysis is made for the system with multi-defects plate elements.Failure mechanism,failure paths and the calculating approach to global reliability index are also worked out.After plate elements with multi-defects fail,the formula of reverse node forces which affect the residual structure is deduced,so are the sensitivity expressions of the system reliability index.This ensures calculating accuracy and rationality for reliability analysis,and makes it convenient to find weakness plate elements which affect the reliability of the structure system.Finally,for the validity of the approach proposed,we take the numerical example of a ship cabin to compare and contrast the reliability and the sensitivity analysis of the structure system with multi-defects with those of the structure system with no defects.The approach has implications for the structure design,rational maintenance and renewing strategy.

  15. Reliability Analysis and Modeling of ZigBee Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Cheng-Min

    The architecture of ZigBee networks focuses on developing low-cost, low-speed ubiquitous communication between devices. The ZigBee technique is based on IEEE 802.15.4, which specifies the physical layer and medium access control (MAC) for a low rate wireless personal area network (LR-WPAN). Currently, numerous wireless sensor networks have adapted the ZigBee open standard to develop various services to promote improved communication quality in our daily lives. The problem of system and network reliability in providing stable services has become more important because these services will be stopped if the system and network reliability is unstable. The ZigBee standard has three kinds of networks; star, tree and mesh. The paper models the ZigBee protocol stack from the physical layer to the application layer and analyzes these layer reliability and mean time to failure (MTTF). Channel resource usage, device role, network topology and application objects are used to evaluate reliability in the physical, medium access control, network, and application layers, respectively. In the star or tree networks, a series system and the reliability block diagram (RBD) technique can be used to solve their reliability problem. However, a division technology is applied here to overcome the problem because the network complexity is higher than that of the others. A mesh network using division technology is classified into several non-reducible series systems and edge parallel systems. Hence, the reliability of mesh networks is easily solved using series-parallel systems through our proposed scheme. The numerical results demonstrate that the reliability will increase for mesh networks when the number of edges in parallel systems increases while the reliability quickly drops when the number of edges and the number of nodes increase for all three networks. More use of resources is another factor impact on reliability decreasing. However, lower network reliability will occur due to

  16. Reliability Modeling and Analysis of SCI Topological Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongzhe Xu

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The problem of reliability modeling on the Scalable Coherent Interface (SCI rings and topological network is studied. The reliability models of three SCI rings are developed and the factors which influence the reliability of SCI rings are studied. By calculating the shortest path matrix and the path quantity matrix of different types SCI network topology, the communication characteristics of SCI network are obtained. For the situations of the node-damage and edge-damage, the survivability of SCI topological network is studied.

  17. Requalification of offshore structures. Reliability analysis of platform

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bloch, A.; Dalsgaard Soerensen, J. [Aalborg Univ. (Denmark)

    1999-03-01

    A preliminary reliability analysis has been performed for an example platform. In order to model the structural response such that it is possible to calculate reliability indices, approximate quadratic response surfaces have been determined for cross-sectional forces. Based on a deterministic, code-based analysis the elements and joints which can be expected to be the most critical are selected and response surfaces are established for the cross-sectional forces in those. A stochastic model is established for the uncertain variables. The reliability analysis shows that with this stochastic model the smallest reliability indices for elements are about 3.9. The reliability index for collapse (pushover) is estimated to 6.7 and the reliability index for fatigue failure using a crude model is for the expected most critical detail estimated to 3.2, corresponding to the accumulated damage during the design lifetime of the platform. These reliability indices are considered to be reasonable compared with values recommended by e.g. ISO. The most important stochastic variables are found to be the wave height and the drag coefficient (including the model uncertainty related to estimation of wave forces on the platform). (au)

  18. Maritime shipping as a high reliability industry: A qualitative analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mannarelli, T.; Roberts, K.; Bea, R.

    1994-10-01

    The maritime oil shipping industry has great public demands for safe and reliable organizational performance. Researchers have identified a set of organizations and industries that operate at extremely high levels of reliability, and have labelled them High Reliability Organizations (HRO). Following the Exxon Valdez oil spill disaster of 1989, public demands for HRO-level operations were placed on the oil industry. It will be demonstrated that, despite enormous improvements in safety and reliability, maritime shipping is not operating as an HRO industry. An analysis of the organizational, environmental, and cultural history of the oil industry will help to provide justification and explanation. The oil industry will be contrasted with other HRO industries and the differences will inform the shortfalls maritime shipping experiences with regard to maximizing reliability. Finally, possible solutions for the achievement of HRO status will be offered.

  19. Reliability Analysis of OMEGA Network and Its Variants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suman Lata

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The performance of a computer system depends directly on the time required to perform a basic operation and the number of these basic operations that can be performed concurrently. High performance computing systems can be designed using parallel processing. Parallel processing is achieved by using more than one processors or computers together they communicate with each other to solve a givenproblem. MINs provide better way for the communication between different processors or memory modules with less complexity, fast communication, good fault tolerance, high reliability and low cost. Reliability of a system is the probability that it will successfully perform its intended operations for a given time under stated operating conditions. From the reliability analysis it has beenobserved that addition of one stage to Omega networks provide higher reliability in terms of terminal reliability than the addition of two stages in the corresponding network.

  20. Discrete event simulation versus conventional system reliability analysis approaches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kozine, Igor

    2010-01-01

    Discrete Event Simulation (DES) environments are rapidly developing and appear to be promising tools for building reliability and risk analysis models of safety-critical systems and human operators. If properly developed, they are an alternative to the conventional human reliability analysis models...... and systems analysis methods such as fault and event trees and Bayesian networks. As one part, the paper describes briefly the author’s experience in applying DES models to the analysis of safety-critical systems in different domains. The other part of the paper is devoted to comparing conventional approaches...

  1. Seismic reliability analysis of urban water distribution network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Li Jie; Wei Shulin; Liu Wei

    2006-01-01

    An approach to analyze the seismic reliability of water distribution networks by combining a hydraulic analysis with a first-order reliability method (FORM), is proposed in this paper.The hydraulic analysis method for normal conditions is modified to accommodate the special conditions necessary to perform a seismic hydraulic analysis. In order to calculate the leakage area and leaking flow of the pipelines in the hydraulic analysis method, a new leakage model established from the seismic response analysis of buried pipelines is presented. To validate the proposed approach, a network with 17 nodes and 24 pipelines is investigated in detail. The approach is also applied to an actual project consisting of 463 nodes and 767pipelines. Thee results show that the proposed approach achieves satisfactory results in analyzing the seismic reliability of large-scale water distribution networks.

  2. Reliability analysis and risk-based methods for planning of operation & maintenance of offshore wind turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2017-01-01

    for extreme and fatigue limit states are presented. Operation & Maintenance planning often follows corrective and preventive strategies based on information from condition monitoring and structural health monitoring systems. A reliability- and riskbased approach is presented where a life-cycle approach......Reliability analysis and probabilistic models for wind turbines are considered with special focus on structural components and application for reliability-based calibration of partial safety factors. The main design load cases to be considered in design of wind turbine components are presented...... including the effects of the control system and possible faults due to failure of electrical / mechanical components. Considerations are presented on the target reliability level for wind turbine structural components. Application is shown for reliability-based calibrations of partial safety factors...

  3. Using a Hybrid Cost-FMEA Analysis for Wind Turbine Reliability Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nacef Tazi

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA has been proven to be an effective methodology to improve system design reliability. However, the standard approach reveals some weaknesses when applied to wind turbine systems. The conventional criticality assessment method has been criticized as having many limitations such as the weighting of severity and detection factors. In this paper, we aim to overcome these drawbacks and develop a hybrid cost-FMEA by integrating cost factors to assess the criticality, these costs vary from replacement costs to expected failure costs. Then, a quantitative comparative study is carried out to point out average failure rate, main cause of failure, expected failure costs and failure detection techniques. A special reliability analysis of gearbox and rotor-blades are presented.

  4. A Passive System Reliability Analysis for a Station Blackout

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brunett, Acacia; Bucknor, Matthew; Grabaskas, David; Sofu, Tanju; Grelle, Austin

    2015-05-03

    The latest iterations of advanced reactor designs have included increased reliance on passive safety systems to maintain plant integrity during unplanned sequences. While these systems are advantageous in reducing the reliance on human intervention and availability of power, the phenomenological foundations on which these systems are built require a novel approach to a reliability assessment. Passive systems possess the unique ability to fail functionally without failing physically, a result of their explicit dependency on existing boundary conditions that drive their operating mode and capacity. Argonne National Laboratory is performing ongoing analyses that demonstrate various methodologies for the characterization of passive system reliability within a probabilistic framework. Two reliability analysis techniques are utilized in this work. The first approach, the Reliability Method for Passive Systems, provides a mechanistic technique employing deterministic models and conventional static event trees. The second approach, a simulation-based technique, utilizes discrete dynamic event trees to treat time- dependent phenomena during scenario evolution. For this demonstration analysis, both reliability assessment techniques are used to analyze an extended station blackout in a pool-type sodium fast reactor (SFR) coupled with a reactor cavity cooling system (RCCS). This work demonstrates the entire process of a passive system reliability analysis, including identification of important parameters and failure metrics, treatment of uncertainties and analysis of results.

  5. Reliability Analysis of Dynamic Stability in Waves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søborg, Anders Veldt

    2004-01-01

    exhibit sufficient characteristics with respect to slope at zero heel (GM value), maximum leverarm, positive range of stability and area below the leverarm curve. The rule-based requirements to calm water leverarm curves are entirely based on experience obtained from vessels in operation and recorded......-4 per ship year such brute force Monte-Carlo simulations are not always feasible due to the required computational resources. Previous studies of dynamic stability of ships in waves typically focused on the capsizing event. In this study the objective is to establish a procedure that can identify...... the distribution of the exceedance probability may be established by an estimation of the out-crossing rate of the "safe set" defined by the utility function. This out-crossing rate will be established using the so-called Madsen's Formula. A bi-product of this analysis is a set of short wave time series...

  6. Reliability Analysis of Fatigue Fracture of Wind Turbine Drivetrain Components

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berzonskis, Arvydas; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2016-01-01

    in the volume of the casted ductile iron main shaft, on the reliability of the component. The probabilistic reliability analysis conducted is based on fracture mechanics models. Additionally, the utilization of the probabilistic reliability for operation and maintenance planning and quality control is discussed....... of operation and maintenance. The manufacturing of casted drivetrain components, like the main shaft of the wind turbine, commonly result in many smaller defects through the volume of the component with sizes that depend on the manufacturing method. This paper considers the effect of the initial defect present...

  7. Factor Structure and Reliability of the Malay Version of the Perceived Stress Scale among Malaysian Medical Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Dubai, Sami Abdo Radman; Alshagga, Mustafa Ahmed; Rampal, Krishna Gopal; Sulaiman, Nik Aziz

    2012-01-01

    Background: The Perceived Stress Scale 10 (PSS-10) is a validated and reliable instrument to measure global levels of perceived stress. This study aims to assess the internal consistency, reliability, and factor structure of the Malay version of the PSS-10 for use among medical students. Methods: The original English version of the PSS-10 was translated and back-translated into Malay language. The Malay version was distributed to 242 Bachelor of Medical Science students in a private university in Malaysia. Test–retest reliability was assessed in 70 students. An exploratory principal component factor analysis with varimax rotation was performed. Reliability was tested using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). Results: All 242 students participated in the initial questionnaire study (validity and factor structure), and 70 students participated in the test–retest reliability of the study. Exploratory factor analysis yielded 2 factors that accounted for 57.8% of the variance. Cronbach’s alpha coefficients for the 2 factors were 0.85 and 0.70, respectively. The reliability test showed an ICC of 0.82 (95% CI: 0.70, 0.89). Conclusion: The Malay version of the PSS-10 showed adequate psychometric properties. It is a useful instrument for measuring stress among medical students in Malaysia. PMID:23785249

  8. Portuguese validation of the Short Health Anxiety Inventory: Factor structure, reliability, and factor invariance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales, Alexandra; Reis, Sibília; Espada, José P; Orgilés, Mireia

    2016-09-01

    The Short Health Anxiety Inventory is a brief instrument to assess health anxiety widely used across countries; however, no validated version is available for Portuguese-speaking population. Factorial structure, reliability, and equivalency factor with the Spanish version were analyzed with Portuguese adolescents aged 14-18 years. A Portuguese adolescent cohort ( N = 629) and a comparative Spanish adolescent cohort ( N = 1502) were evaluated. The original two-factor version was the best fitting model for the Portuguese version. The reliability was excellent. Complete measurement invariance across both countries was supported. The Portuguese version of the Short Health Anxiety Inventory is a valid screening inventory to assess health anxiety in adolescents.

  9. Reliability analysis of a wastewater treatment plant using fault tree analysis and Monte Carlo simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taheriyoun, Masoud; Moradinejad, Saber

    2015-01-01

    The reliability of a wastewater treatment plant is a critical issue when the effluent is reused or discharged to water resources. Main factors affecting the performance of the wastewater treatment plant are the variation of the influent, inherent variability in the treatment processes, deficiencies in design, mechanical equipment, and operational failures. Thus, meeting the established reuse/discharge criteria requires assessment of plant reliability. Among many techniques developed in system reliability analysis, fault tree analysis (FTA) is one of the popular and efficient methods. FTA is a top down, deductive failure analysis in which an undesired state of a system is analyzed. In this study, the problem of reliability was studied on Tehran West Town wastewater treatment plant. This plant is a conventional activated sludge process, and the effluent is reused in landscape irrigation. The fault tree diagram was established with the violation of allowable effluent BOD as the top event in the diagram, and the deficiencies of the system were identified based on the developed model. Some basic events are operator's mistake, physical damage, and design problems. The analytical method is minimal cut sets (based on numerical probability) and Monte Carlo simulation. Basic event probabilities were calculated according to available data and experts' opinions. The results showed that human factors, especially human error had a great effect on top event occurrence. The mechanical, climate, and sewer system factors were in subsequent tier. Literature shows applying FTA has been seldom used in the past wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) risk analysis studies. Thus, the developed FTA model in this study considerably improves the insight into causal failure analysis of a WWTP. It provides an efficient tool for WWTP operators and decision makers to achieve the standard limits in wastewater reuse and discharge to the environment.

  10. Coverage Modeling and Reliability Analysis Using Multi-state Function

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    Fault tree analysis is an effective method for predicting the reliability of a system. It gives a pictorial representation and logical framework for analyzing the reliability. Also, it has been used for a long time as an effective method for the quantitative and qualitative analysis of the failure modes of critical systems. In this paper, we propose a new general coverage model (GCM) based on hardware independent faults. Using this model, an effective software tool can be constructed to detect, locate and recover fault from the faulty system. This model can be applied to identify the key component that can cause the failure of the system using failure mode effect analysis (FMEA).

  11. Reliability analysis of flood defence systems in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lassing, B.L.; Vrouwenvelder, A.C.W.M.; Waarts, P.H.

    2003-01-01

    In recent years an advanced program for reliability analysis of dike systems has been under de-velopment in the Netherlands. This paper describes the global data requirements for application and the set-up of the models in the Netherlands. The analysis generates an estimate of the probability of sys

  12. Reliability importance analysis of Markovian systems at steady state using perturbation analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Phuc Do Van [Institut Charles Delaunay - FRE CNRS 2848, Systems Modeling and Dependability Group, Universite de technologie de Troyes, 12, rue Marie Curie, BP 2060-10010 Troyes cedex (France); Barros, Anne [Institut Charles Delaunay - FRE CNRS 2848, Systems Modeling and Dependability Group, Universite de technologie de Troyes, 12, rue Marie Curie, BP 2060-10010 Troyes cedex (France)], E-mail: anne.barros@utt.fr; Berenguer, Christophe [Institut Charles Delaunay - FRE CNRS 2848, Systems Modeling and Dependability Group, Universite de technologie de Troyes, 12, rue Marie Curie, BP 2060-10010 Troyes cedex (France)

    2008-11-15

    Sensitivity analysis has been primarily defined for static systems, i.e. systems described by combinatorial reliability models (fault or event trees). Several structural and probabilistic measures have been proposed to assess the components importance. For dynamic systems including inter-component and functional dependencies (cold spare, shared load, shared resources, etc.), and described by Markov models or, more generally, by discrete events dynamic systems models, the problem of sensitivity analysis remains widely open. In this paper, the perturbation method is used to estimate an importance factor, called multi-directional sensitivity measure, in the framework of Markovian systems. Some numerical examples are introduced to show why this method offers a promising tool for steady-state sensitivity analysis of Markov processes in reliability studies.

  13. On reliability analysis of multi-categorical forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Bröcker

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Reliability analysis of probabilistic forecasts, in particular through the rank histogram or Talagrand diagram, is revisited. Two shortcomings are pointed out: Firstly, a uniform rank histogram is but a necessary condition for reliability. Secondly, if the forecast is assumed to be reliable, an indication is needed how far a histogram is expected to deviate from uniformity merely due to randomness. Concerning the first shortcoming, it is suggested that forecasts be grouped or stratified along suitable criteria, and that reliability is analyzed individually for each forecast stratum. A reliable forecast should have uniform histograms for all individual forecast strata, not only for all forecasts as a whole. As to the second shortcoming, instead of the observed frequencies, the probability of the observed frequency is plotted, providing and indication of the likelihood of the result under the hypothesis that the forecast is reliable. Furthermore, a Goodness-Of-Fit statistic is discussed which is essentially the reliability term of the Ignorance score. The discussed tools are applied to medium range forecasts for 2 m-temperature anomalies at several locations and lead times. The forecasts are stratified along the expected ranked probability score. Those forecasts which feature a high expected score turn out to be particularly unreliable.

  14. Multi-Unit Considerations for Human Reliability Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    St. Germain, S.; Boring, R.; Banaseanu, G.; Akl, Y.; Chatri, H.

    2017-03-01

    This paper uses the insights from the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk-Human Reliability Analysis (SPAR-H) methodology to help identify human actions currently modeled in the single unit PSA that may need to be modified to account for additional challenges imposed by a multi-unit accident as well as identify possible new human actions that might be modeled to more accurately characterize multi-unit risk. In identifying these potential human action impacts, the use of the SPAR-H strategy to include both errors in diagnosis and errors in action is considered as well as identifying characteristics of a multi-unit accident scenario that may impact the selection of the performance shaping factors (PSFs) used in SPAR-H. The lessons learned from the Fukushima Daiichi reactor accident will be addressed to further help identify areas where improved modeling may be required. While these multi-unit impacts may require modifications to a Level 1 PSA model, it is expected to have much more importance for Level 2 modeling. There is little currently written specifically about multi-unit HRA issues. A review of related published research will be presented. While this paper cannot answer all issues related to multi-unit HRA, it will hopefully serve as a starting point to generate discussion and spark additional ideas towards the proper treatment of HRA in a multi-unit PSA.

  15. The development of a reliable amateur boxing performance analysis template.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, Edward; Lamb, Kevin; Nicholas, Ceri

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study was to devise a valid performance analysis system for the assessment of the movement characteristics associated with competitive amateur boxing and assess its reliability using analysts of varying experience of the sport and performance analysis. Key performance indicators to characterise the demands of an amateur contest (offensive, defensive and feinting) were developed and notated using a computerised notational analysis system. Data were subjected to intra- and inter-observer reliability assessment using median sign tests and calculating the proportion of agreement within predetermined limits of error. For all performance indicators, intra-observer reliability revealed non-significant differences between observations (P > 0.05) and high agreement was established (80-100%) regardless of whether exact or the reference value of ±1 was applied. Inter-observer reliability was less impressive for both analysts (amateur boxer and experienced analyst), with the proportion of agreement ranging from 33-100%. Nonetheless, there was no systematic bias between observations for any indicator (P > 0.05), and the proportion of agreement within the reference range (±1) was 100%. A reliable performance analysis template has been developed for the assessment of amateur boxing performance and is available for use by researchers, coaches and athletes to classify and quantify the movement characteristics of amateur boxing.

  16. Reliability analysis of cluster-based ad-hoc networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cook, Jason L. [Quality Engineering and System Assurance, Armament Research Development Engineering Center, Picatinny Arsenal, NJ (United States); Ramirez-Marquez, Jose Emmanuel [School of Systems and Enterprises, Stevens Institute of Technology, Castle Point on Hudson, Hoboken, NJ 07030 (United States)], E-mail: Jose.Ramirez-Marquez@stevens.edu

    2008-10-15

    The mobile ad-hoc wireless network (MAWN) is a new and emerging network scheme that is being employed in a variety of applications. The MAWN varies from traditional networks because it is a self-forming and dynamic network. The MAWN is free of infrastructure and, as such, only the mobile nodes comprise the network. Pairs of nodes communicate either directly or through other nodes. To do so, each node acts, in turn, as a source, destination, and relay of messages. The virtue of a MAWN is the flexibility this provides; however, the challenge for reliability analyses is also brought about by this unique feature. The variability and volatility of the MAWN configuration makes typical reliability methods (e.g. reliability block diagram) inappropriate because no single structure or configuration represents all manifestations of a MAWN. For this reason, new methods are being developed to analyze the reliability of this new networking technology. New published methods adapt to this feature by treating the configuration probabilistically or by inclusion of embedded mobility models. This paper joins both methods together and expands upon these works by modifying the problem formulation to address the reliability analysis of a cluster-based MAWN. The cluster-based MAWN is deployed in applications with constraints on networking resources such as bandwidth and energy. This paper presents the problem's formulation, a discussion of applicable reliability metrics for the MAWN, and illustration of a Monte Carlo simulation method through the analysis of several example networks.

  17. Reliability Analysis of Wireless Sensor Networks Using Markovian Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin Zhu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates reliability analysis of wireless sensor networks whose topology is switching among possible connections which are governed by a Markovian chain. We give the quantized relations between network topology, data acquisition rate, nodes' calculation ability, and network reliability. By applying Lyapunov method, sufficient conditions of network reliability are proposed for such topology switching networks with constant or varying data acquisition rate. With the conditions satisfied, the quantity of data transported over wireless network node will not exceed node capacity such that reliability is ensured. Our theoretical work helps to provide a deeper understanding of real-world wireless sensor networks, which may find its application in the fields of network design and topology control.

  18. Reliability analysis of common hazardous waste treatment processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waters, R.D. [Vanderbilt Univ., Nashville, TN (United States)

    1993-05-01

    Five hazardous waste treatment processes are analyzed probabilistically using Monte Carlo simulation to elucidate the relationships between process safety factors and reliability levels. The treatment processes evaluated are packed tower aeration, reverse osmosis, activated sludge, upflow anaerobic sludge blanket, and activated carbon adsorption.

  19. Reliability of the Emergency Severity Index: Meta-analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir Mirhaghi

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: Although triage systems based on the Emergency Severity Index (ESI have many advantages in terms of simplicity and clarity, previous research has questioned their reliability in practice. Therefore, the aim of this meta-analysis was to determine the reliability of ESI triage scales. Methods: This metaanalysis was performed in March 2014. Electronic research databases were searched and articles conforming to the Guidelines for Reporting Reliability and Agreement Studies were selected. Two researchers independently examined selected abstracts. Data were extracted in the following categories: version of scale (latest/older, participants (adult/paediatric, raters (nurse, physician or expert, method of reliability (intra/inter-rater, reliability statistics (weighted/unweighted kappa and the origin and publication year of the study. The effect size was obtained by the Z-transformation of reliability coefficients. Data were pooled with random-effects models and a meta-regression was performed based on the method of moments estimator. Results: A total of 19 studies from six countries were included in the analysis. The pooled coefficient for the ESI triage scales was substantial at 0.791 (95% confidence interval: 0.787‒0.795. Agreement was higher with the latest and adult versions of the scale and among expert raters, compared to agreement with older and paediatric versions of the scales and with other groups of raters, respectively. Conclusion: ESI triage scales showed an acceptable level of overall reliability. However, ESI scales require more development in order to see full agreement from all rater groups. Further studies concentrating on other aspects of reliability assessment are needed.

  20. Analysis on Operation Reliability of Generating Units in 2005

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zuo Xiaowen; Chu Xue

    2007-01-01

    @@ The weighted average equivalent availability factor of thermal power units in 2005 was 92.34%, an increase of 0.64 percentage points as compared to that in 2004. The average equivalent availability factor in 2005 was 92.22%, a decrease of 0.95 percentage points as compared to that in 2004. The nationwide operation reliability of generating units in 2005 was analyzed completely in this paper.

  1. Reliability-based structural optimization using response surface approximations and probabilistic sufficiency factor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qu, Xueyong

    Uncertainties exist practically everywhere from structural design to manufacturing, product lifetime service, and maintenance. Uncertainties can be introduced by errors in modeling and simulation; by manufacturing imperfections (such as variability in material properties and structural geometric dimensions); and by variability in loading. Structural design by safety factors using nominal values without considering uncertainties may lead to designs that are either unsafe, or too conservative and thus not efficient. The focus of this dissertation is reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) of composite structures. Uncertainties are modeled by the probabilistic distributions of random variables. Structural reliability is evaluated in term of the probability of failure. RBDO minimizes cost such as structural weight subject to reliability constraints. Since engineering structures usually have multiple failure modes, Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) was used employed to calculate the system probability of failure. Response surface (RS) approximation techniques were used to solve the difficulties associated with MCS. The high computational cost of a large number of MCS samples was alleviated by analysis RS, and numerical noise in the results of MCS was filtered out by design RS. RBDO of composite laminates is investigated for use in hydrogen tanks in cryogenic environments. The major challenge is to reduce the large residual strains developed due to thermal mismatch between matrix and fibers while maintaining the load carrying capacity. RBDO is performed to provide laminate designs, quantify the effects of uncertainties on the optimum weight, and identify those parameters that have the largest influence on optimum design. Studies of weight and reliability tradeoffs indicate that the most cost-effective measure for reducing weight and increasing reliability is quality control. A probabilistic sufficiency factor (PSF) approach was developed to improve the computational

  2. Factor structure and reliability of the depression, anxiety and stress scales in a large Portuguese community sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasconcelos-Raposo, José; Fernandes, Helder Miguel; Teixeira, Carla M

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of the present study was to assess the factor structure and reliability of the Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scales (DASS-21) in a large Portuguese community sample. Participants were 1020 adults (585 women and 435 men), with a mean age of 36.74 (SD = 11.90) years. All scales revealed good reliability, with Cronbach's alpha values between .80 (anxiety) and .84 (depression). The internal consistency of the total score was .92. Confirmatory factor analysis revealed that the best-fitting model (*CFI = .940, *RMSEA = .038) consisted of a latent component of general psychological distress (or negative affectivity) plus orthogonal depression, anxiety and stress factors. The Portuguese version of the DASS-21 showed good psychometric properties (factorial validity and reliability) and thus can be used as a reliable and valid instrument for measuring depression, anxiety and stress symptoms.

  3. Statistical models and methods for reliability and survival analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Couallier, Vincent; Huber-Carol, Catherine; Mesbah, Mounir; Huber -Carol, Catherine; Limnios, Nikolaos; Gerville-Reache, Leo

    2013-01-01

    Statistical Models and Methods for Reliability and Survival Analysis brings together contributions by specialists in statistical theory as they discuss their applications providing up-to-date developments in methods used in survival analysis, statistical goodness of fit, stochastic processes for system reliability, amongst others. Many of these are related to the work of Professor M. Nikulin in statistics over the past 30 years. The authors gather together various contributions with a broad array of techniques and results, divided into three parts - Statistical Models and Methods, Statistical

  4. Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon; Kelly, Dana; Smith, Curtis; Vedros, Kurt; Galyean, William

    2009-01-01

    This document, Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis, is intended to provide guidelines for the collection and evaluation of risk and reliability-related data. It is aimed at scientists and engineers familiar with risk and reliability methods and provides a hands-on approach to the investigation and application of a variety of risk and reliability data assessment methods, tools, and techniques. This document provides both: A broad perspective on data analysis collection and evaluation issues. A narrow focus on the methods to implement a comprehensive information repository. The topics addressed herein cover the fundamentals of how data and information are to be used in risk and reliability analysis models and their potential role in decision making. Understanding these topics is essential to attaining a risk informed decision making environment that is being sought by NASA requirements and procedures such as 8000.4 (Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements), NPR 8705.05 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects), and the System Safety requirements of NPR 8715.3 (NASA General Safety Program Requirements).

  5. Notes on numerical reliability of several statistical analysis programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landwehr, J.M.; Tasker, Gary D.

    1999-01-01

    This report presents a benchmark analysis of several statistical analysis programs currently in use in the USGS. The benchmark consists of a comparison between the values provided by a statistical analysis program for variables in the reference data set ANASTY and their known or calculated theoretical values. The ANASTY data set is an amendment of the Wilkinson NASTY data set that has been used in the statistical literature to assess the reliability (computational correctness) of calculated analytical results.

  6. Bayesian Exploratory Factor Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Conti, Gabriella; Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Heckman, James J.;

    2014-01-01

    This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor, and the corr......This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor......, and the corresponding factor loadings. Classical identification criteria are applied and integrated into our Bayesian procedure to generate models that are stable and clearly interpretable. A Monte Carlo study confirms the validity of the approach. The method is used to produce interpretable low dimensional aggregates...

  7. Factor analysis of the Caregiver Quality of Life Index-Cancer (CQOLC scale for Chinese cancer caregivers: a preliminary reliability and validity study of the CQOLC-Chinese version.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiaobo Duan

    Full Text Available The English version of the Caregiver Quality of Life Index-Cancer (CQOLC was translated into simplified Chinese (CQOLC-C, following cultural translation, back-translation and pretest steps. Three hundred and sixty one cancer caregivers participated in this study. Cronbach's alpha was used to assess CQOLC-C reliability. Exploratory factor analyses (EFA was used to generate two models of the measure's factor structure, and confirmatory factor analyses (CFA were used to test each model, such that the best model to explain the latent structure of the CQOLC-C was identified. EFA using different factor extraction methods yielded two models including four and eight factors. According to the CFA results, model 2 was better fit for the original study data, based on the RMSEA criterion [0.058(90% CI = 0.051-0.065], χ2 (531 = 853.92, p < 0.0001; CFI (0.96, NNFI (0.96, IFI (0.97, and NFI (0.92. We also examined the effect of removing three items on the CQOLC-C factor structure and discuss the resulting differences from other versions. These results indicate that the CQOLC-C's factor structure does not fully fit the original theorized model. This study provides preliminary support for further use of the CQOLC-C. However, the present work provides only partial support for the relevance and construct validity of the scale for Chinese caregivers.

  8. Windfarm Generation Assessment for Reliability Analysis of Power Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barberis Negra, Nicola; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte; Holmstrøm, O.

    2007-01-01

    Due to the fast development of wind generation in the past ten years, increasing interest has been paid to techniques for assessing different aspects of power systems with a large amount of installed wind generation. One of these aspects concerns power system reliability. Windfarm modelling plays...... in a reliability model and the generation of a windfarm is evaluated by means of sequential Monte Carlo simulation. Results are used to analyse how each mentioned Factor influences the assessment, and why and when they should be included in the model....

  9. Windfarm Generation Assessment for ReliabilityAnalysis of Power Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Negra, Nicola Barberis; Holmstrøm, Ole; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2007-01-01

    Due to the fast development of wind generation in the past ten years, increasing interest has been paid to techniques for assessing different aspects of power systems with a large amount of installed wind generation. One of these aspects concerns power system reliability. Windfarm modelling plays...... in a reliability model and the generation of a windfarm is evaluated by means of sequential Monte Carlo simulation. Results are used to analyse how each mentioned Factor influences the assessment, and why and when they should be included in the model....

  10. Finite State Machine Based Evaluation Model for Web Service Reliability Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    M, Thirumaran; Abarna, S; P, Lakshmi

    2011-01-01

    Now-a-days they are very much considering about the changes to be done at shorter time since the reaction time needs are decreasing every moment. Business Logic Evaluation Model (BLEM) are the proposed solution targeting business logic automation and facilitating business experts to write sophisticated business rules and complex calculations without costly custom programming. BLEM is powerful enough to handle service manageability issues by analyzing and evaluating the computability and traceability and other criteria of modified business logic at run time. The web service and QOS grows expensively based on the reliability of the service. Hence the service provider of today things that reliability is the major factor and any problem in the reliability of the service should overcome then and there in order to achieve the expected level of reliability. In our paper we propose business logic evaluation model for web service reliability analysis using Finite State Machine (FSM) where FSM will be extended to analy...

  11. Distribution System Reliability Analysis for Smart Grid Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aljohani, Tawfiq Masad

    Reliability of power systems is a key aspect in modern power system planning, design, and operation. The ascendance of the smart grid concept has provided high hopes of developing an intelligent network that is capable of being a self-healing grid, offering the ability to overcome the interruption problems that face the utility and cost it tens of millions in repair and loss. To address its reliability concerns, the power utilities and interested parties have spent extensive amount of time and effort to analyze and study the reliability of the generation and transmission sectors of the power grid. Only recently has attention shifted to be focused on improving the reliability of the distribution network, the connection joint between the power providers and the consumers where most of the electricity problems occur. In this work, we will examine the effect of the smart grid applications in improving the reliability of the power distribution networks. The test system used in conducting this thesis is the IEEE 34 node test feeder, released in 2003 by the Distribution System Analysis Subcommittee of the IEEE Power Engineering Society. The objective is to analyze the feeder for the optimal placement of the automatic switching devices and quantify their proper installation based on the performance of the distribution system. The measures will be the changes in the reliability system indices including SAIDI, SAIFI, and EUE. The goal is to design and simulate the effect of the installation of the Distributed Generators (DGs) on the utility's distribution system and measure the potential improvement of its reliability. The software used in this work is DISREL, which is intelligent power distribution software that is developed by General Reliability Co.

  12. Reliability Index for Reinforced Concrete Frames using Nonlinear Pushover and Dynamic Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad A. Fallah

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available In the conventional design and analysis methods affecting parameters loads, materials' strength, etc are not set as probable variables. Safety factors in the current Codes and Standards are usually obtained on the basis of judgment and experience, which may be improper or uneconomical. In technical literature, a method based on nonlinear static analysis is suggested to set Reliability Index on strength of structural systems. In this paper, a method based on Nonlinear Dynamic analysis with rising acceleration (or Incremental Dynamic Analysis is introduced, the results of which are compared with those of the previous (Static Pushover Analysis method and two concepts namely Redundancy Strength and Redundancy Variations are proposed as an index to these impacts. The Redundancy Variation Factor and Redundancy Strength Factor indices for reinforced concrete frames with varying number of bays and stories and different ductility potentials are computed and ultimately, Reliability Index is determined using these two indices.

  13. Reliability analysis of retaining walls with multiple failure modes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张道兵; 孙志彬; 朱川曲

    2013-01-01

    In order to reduce the errors of the reliability of the retaining wall structure in the establishment of function, in the estimation of parameter and algorithm, firstly, two new reliability and stability models of anti-slipping and anti-overturning based on the upper-bound theory of limit analysis were established, and two kinds of failure modes were regarded as a series of systems with multiple correlated failure modes. Then, statistical characteristics of parameters of the retaining wall structure were inferred by maximal entropy principle. At last, the structural reliabilities of single failure mode and multiple failure modes were calculated by Monte Carlo method in MATLAB and the results were compared and analyzed on the sensitivity. It indicates that this method, with a high precision, is not only easy to program and quick in calculation, but also without the limit of nonlinear functions and non-normal random variables. And the results calculated by this method which applies both the limit analysis theory, maximal entropy principle and Monte Carlo method into analyzing the reliability of the retaining wall structures is more scientific, accurate and reliable, in comparison with those calculated by traditional method.

  14. Security and Reliability Analysis of Multi-factor Composite Environment Simulation Medical Module%多因素复合环境模拟医学科学实验舱的安全可靠性分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈浩宇; 黄孝胜; 安源

    2012-01-01

    Objective To expound the insecurity in the altitude chamber operation process and propose the improvement measures. Methods The security and reliability of the persons working in the altitude chamber and the experimental data were analyzed. Results The safety of the persons working in the altitude chamber was influenced by the factors such as low pressure, high or low temperature, harmful gas, electrical safety, etc. The accuracy of the simulating experimental data was influenced by the reliability of data collection process and the instrument. Conclusion Only the knowledge for the security and reliability of experimental module is enough and appropriate precautions are adopted, the experimental data will be safe and reliable.[Chinese Medical Equipment Journal,2012,33(5) :108-109]%目的:阐述低压舱运行过程中的不安全性,提出相应的改进措施.方法:分析低压舱实验过程中受试人员及实验数据的安全可靠性.结果:低压、高低温、有害气体、电气安全等会影响到受试人员的安全;数据采集过程及仪器仪表的可靠性则影响到模拟实验数据的准确性.结论:只有对实验舱的安全可靠性有足够的认识及采取适当的防范措施,实验数据才会安全可靠.

  15. Reliability Analysis of a Green Roof Under Different Storm Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    William, R. K.; Stillwell, A. S.

    2015-12-01

    Urban environments continue to face the challenges of localized flooding and decreased water quality brought on by the increasing amount of impervious area in the built environment. Green infrastructure provides an alternative to conventional storm sewer design by using natural processes to filter and store stormwater at its source. However, there are currently few consistent standards available in North America to ensure that installed green infrastructure is performing as expected. This analysis offers a method for characterizing green roof failure using a visual aid commonly used in earthquake engineering: fragility curves. We adapted the concept of the fragility curve based on the efficiency in runoff reduction provided by a green roof compared to a conventional roof under different storm scenarios. We then used the 2D distributed surface water-groundwater coupled model MIKE SHE to model the impact that a real green roof might have on runoff in different storm events. We then employed a multiple regression analysis to generate an algebraic demand model that was input into the Matlab-based reliability analysis model FERUM, which was then used to calculate the probability of failure. The use of reliability analysis as a part of green infrastructure design code can provide insights into green roof weaknesses and areas for improvement. It also supports the design of code that is more resilient than current standards and is easily testable for failure. Finally, the understanding of reliability of a single green roof module under different scenarios can support holistic testing of system reliability.

  16. Semigroup Method for a Mathematical Model in Reliability Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Geni Gupur; LI Xue-zhi

    2001-01-01

    The system which consists of a reliable machine, an unreliable machine and a storage buffer with infinite many workpieces has been studied. The existence of a unique positive time-dependent solution of the model corresponding to the system has been obtained by using C0-semigroup theory of linear operators in functional analysis.

  17. Reliability-Based Robustness Analysis for a Croatian Sports Hall

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Čizmar, Dean; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2011-01-01

    . A complex timber structure with a large number of failure modes is modelled with only a few dominant failure modes. First, a component based robustness analysis is performed based on the reliability indices of the remaining elements after the removal of selected critical elements. The robustness...

  18. Reliability-Based Robustness Analysis for a Croatian Sports Hall

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Čizmar, Dean; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard;

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a probabilistic approach for structural robustness assessment for a timber structure built a few years ago. The robustness analysis is based on a structural reliability based framework for robustness and a simplified mechanical system modelling of a timber truss system. A comp...

  19. System Reliability Analysis Capability and Surrogate Model Application in RAVEN

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rabiti, Cristian; Alfonsi, Andrea; Huang, Dongli; Gleicher, Frederick; Wang, Bei; Adbel-Khalik, Hany S.; Pascucci, Valerio; Smith, Curtis L.

    2015-11-01

    This report collect the effort performed to improve the reliability analysis capabilities of the RAVEN code and explore new opportunity in the usage of surrogate model by extending the current RAVEN capabilities to multi physics surrogate models and construction of surrogate models for high dimensionality fields.

  20. Test-retest reliability of trunk accelerometric gait analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Marius; Lund, Hans; Moe-Nilssen, R

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the test-retest reliability of a trunk accelerometric gait analysis in healthy subjects. Accelerations were measured during walking using a triaxial accelerometer mounted on the lumbar spine of the subjects. Six men and 14 women (mean age 35.2; range 18...

  1. Windfarm Generation Assessment for Reliability Analysis of Power Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barberis Negra, Nicola; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte; Holmstrøm, O.

    2007-01-01

    a significant role in this assessment and different models have been created for it, but a representation which includes all of them has not been developed yet. This paper deals with this issue. First, a list of nine influencing Factors is presented and discussed. Secondly, these Factors are included...... in a reliability model and the generation of a windfarm is evaluated by means of sequential Monte Carlo simulation. Results are used to analyse how each mentioned Factor influences the assessment, and why and when they should be included in the model....

  2. Windfarm Generation Assessment for ReliabilityAnalysis of Power Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Negra, Nicola Barberis; Holmstrøm, Ole; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2007-01-01

    a significant role in this assessment and different models have been created for it, but a representation which includes all of them has not been developed yet. This paper deals with this issue. First, a list of nine influencing Factors is presented and discussed. Secondly, these Factors are included...... in a reliability model and the generation of a windfarm is evaluated by means of sequential Monte Carlo simulation. Results are used to analyse how each mentioned Factor influences the assessment, and why and when they should be included in the model....

  3. 综采工作面安全可靠性影响因素分析%Analysis of Safety and Reliability Influencing Factors in the Fully Mechanized Face

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘有哲

    2012-01-01

    综采工作面是煤矿生产系统的重要组成部分,其系统安全可靠性直接影响着煤矿生产效率。通过对煤矿综采工作面安全可靠性进行了分析,将其视为由人、机和环境组成的逻辑系统,并从这3个组成要素出发对综采工作面的安全可靠性进行了详细探讨。分析认为,应当对造成综采系统灾害主要因素的人因失误进行影响分析,需要全面考虑个人因素和组织管理因素。同时,设备故障事故以及环境影响因素也会导致综采出现安全隐患。综合考虑人机环境关联特性,可以确保综采工作面高效安全生产。%The fully mechanized mining face is an indispensable part of the coal mine production system and the safety and reliability of the system has a direct influence on the production efficiency of coal mine. This paper regards the fully mechanized face of coal mine as a logical system composed of man, machine and environment factors, and discusses the safety and reliability of the fully - mechanized face from the three elements in detail. It is thought that the human mistakes of the main factors caused the mechanized mining systems disasters should be analyzed, and the personal factor and the organization management factor should be considered comprehensively. At the same time, the equipment failure accidents and environmental impact factors can lead to reliability inadequate disasters of mecha- nized mining. Comprehensive consideration of the man - machine - environment related characteristics, the efficient and safety produc- tion of fully mechanized mining face can be achieved.

  4. Human Reliability Analysis for Digital Human-Machine Interfaces

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ronald L. Boring

    2014-06-01

    This paper addresses the fact that existing human reliability analysis (HRA) methods do not provide guidance on digital human-machine interfaces (HMIs). Digital HMIs are becoming ubiquitous in nuclear power operations, whether through control room modernization or new-build control rooms. Legacy analog technologies like instrumentation and control (I&C) systems are costly to support, and vendors no longer develop or support analog technology, which is considered technologically obsolete. Yet, despite the inevitability of digital HMI, no current HRA method provides guidance on how to treat human reliability considerations for digital technologies.

  5. Modelling application for cognitive reliability and error analysis method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabio De Felice

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The automation of production systems has delegated to machines the execution of highly repetitive and standardized tasks. In the last decade, however, the failure of the automatic factory model has led to partially automated configurations of production systems. Therefore, in this scenario, centrality and responsibility of the role entrusted to the human operators are exalted because it requires problem solving and decision making ability. Thus, human operator is the core of a cognitive process that leads to decisions, influencing the safety of the whole system in function of their reliability. The aim of this paper is to propose a modelling application for cognitive reliability and error analysis method.

  6. Classification using least squares support vector machine for reliability analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhi-wei GUO; Guang-chen BAI

    2009-01-01

    In order to improve the efficiency of the support vector machine (SVM) for classification to deal with a large amount of samples,the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) for classification methods is introduced into the reliability analysis.To reduce the computational cost,the solution of the SVM is transformed from a quadratic programming to a group of linear equations.The numerical results indicate that the reliability method based on the LSSVM for classification has higher accuracy and requires less computational cost than the SVM method.

  7. Tensile reliability analysis for gravity dam foundation surface based on FEM and response surface method

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Tong-chun LI; Dan-dan LI; Zhi-qiang WANG

    2010-01-01

    In this study,the limit state equation for tensile reliability analysis of the foundation surface of a gravity dam was established.The possible crack length was set as the action effect and allowable crack length was set as the resistance in the limit state.The nonlinear FEM was used to obtain the crack length of the foundation surface of the gravity dam,and the linear response surface method based on the orthogonal test design method was used to calculate the reliability,providing a reasonable and simple method for calculating the reliability of the serviceability limit state.The Longtan RCC gravity dam was chosen as an example.An orthogonal test,including eleven factors and two levels,was conducted,and the tensile reliability was calculated.The analysis shows that this method is reasonable.

  8. Accident Sequence Evaluation Program: Human reliability analysis procedure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Swain, A.D.

    1987-02-01

    This document presents a shortened version of the procedure, models, and data for human reliability analysis (HRA) which are presented in the Handbook of Human Reliability Analysis With emphasis on Nuclear Power Plant Applications (NUREG/CR-1278, August 1983). This shortened version was prepared and tried out as part of the Accident Sequence Evaluation Program (ASEP) funded by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and managed by Sandia National Laboratories. The intent of this new HRA procedure, called the ''ASEP HRA Procedure,'' is to enable systems analysts, with minimal support from experts in human reliability analysis, to make estimates of human error probabilities and other human performance characteristics which are sufficiently accurate for many probabilistic risk assessments. The ASEP HRA Procedure consists of a Pre-Accident Screening HRA, a Pre-Accident Nominal HRA, a Post-Accident Screening HRA, and a Post-Accident Nominal HRA. The procedure in this document includes changes made after tryout and evaluation of the procedure in four nuclear power plants by four different systems analysts and related personnel, including human reliability specialists. The changes consist of some additional explanatory material (including examples), and more detailed definitions of some of the terms. 42 refs.

  9. Strength Reliability Analysis of Turbine Blade Using Surrogate Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Duan

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available There are many stochastic parameters that have an effect on the reliability of steam turbine blades performance in practical operation. In order to improve the reliability of blade design, it is necessary to take these stochastic parameters into account. In this study, a variable cross-section twisted blade is investigated and geometrical parameters, material parameters and load parameters are considered as random variables. A reliability analysis method as a combination of a Finite Element Method (FEM, a surrogate model and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS, is applied to solve the blade reliability analysis. Based on the blade finite element parametrical model and the experimental design, two kinds of surrogate models, Polynomial Response Surface (PRS and Artificial Neural Network (ANN, are applied to construct the approximation analytical expressions between the blade responses (including maximum stress and deflection and random input variables, which act as a surrogate of finite element solver to drastically reduce the number of simulations required. Then the surrogate is used for most of the samples needed in the Monte Carlo method and the statistical parameters and cumulative distribution functions of the maximum stress and deflection are obtained by Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, the probabilistic sensitivities analysis, which combines the magnitude of the gradient and the width of the scatter range of the random input variables, is applied to evaluate how much the maximum stress and deflection of the blade are influenced by the random nature of input parameters.

  10. Generating function approach to reliability analysis of structural systems

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    The generating function approach is an important tool for performance assessment in multi-state systems. Aiming at strength reliability analysis of structural systems, generating function approach is introduced and developed. Static reliability models of statically determinate, indeterminate systems and fatigue reliability models are built by constructing special generating functions, which are used to describe probability distributions of strength (resistance), stress (load) and fatigue life, by defining composite operators of generating functions and performance structure functions thereof. When composition operators are executed, computational costs can be reduced by a big margin by means of collecting like terms. The results of theoretical analysis and numerical simulation show that the generating function approach can be widely used for probability modeling of large complex systems with hierarchical structures due to the unified form, compact expression, computer program realizability and high universality. Because the new method considers twin loads giving rise to component failure dependency, it can provide a theoretical reference and act as a powerful tool for static, dynamic reliability analysis in civil engineering structures and mechanical equipment systems with multi-mode damage coupling.

  11. Identifying Sources of Difference in Reliability in Content Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elizabeth Murphy

    2005-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper reports on a case study which identifies and illustrates sources of difference in agreement in relation to reliability in a context of quantitative content analysis of a transcript of an online asynchronous discussion (OAD. Transcripts of 10 students in a month-long online asynchronous discussion were coded by two coders using an instrument with two categories, five processes, and 19 indicators of Problem Formulation and Resolution (PFR. Sources of difference were identified in relation to: coders; tasks; and students. Reliability values were calculated at the levels of categories, processes, and indicators. At the most detailed level of coding on the basis of the indicator, findings revealed that the overall level of reliability between coders was .591 when measured with Cohen’s kappa. The difference between tasks at the same level ranged from .349 to .664, and the difference between participants ranged from .390 to .907. Implications for training and research are discussed.

  12. Reliability Analysis of Free Jet Scour Below Dams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuanqi Li

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Current formulas for calculating scour depth below of a free over fall are mostly deterministic in nature and do not adequately consider the uncertainties of various scouring parameters. A reliability-based assessment of scour, taking into account uncertainties of parameters and coefficients involved, should be performed. This paper studies the reliability of a dam foundation under the threat of scour. A model for calculating the reliability of scour and estimating the probability of failure of the dam foundation subjected to scour is presented. The Maximum Entropy Method is applied to construct the probability density function (PDF of the performance function subject to the moment constraints. Monte Carlo simulation (MCS is applied for uncertainty analysis. An example is considered, and there liability of its scour is computed, the influence of various random variables on the probability failure is analyzed.

  13. Modeling and Analysis of Component Faults and Reliability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Le Guilly, Thibaut; Olsen, Petur; Ravn, Anders Peter;

    2016-01-01

    that are automatically generated. The stochastic information on the faults is used to estimate the reliability of the fault affected system. The reliability is given with respect to properties of the system state space. We illustrate the process on a concrete example using the Uppaal model checker for validating...... the ideal system model and the fault modeling. Then the statistical version of the tool, UppaalSMC, is used to find reliability estimates.......This chapter presents a process to design and validate models of reactive systems in the form of communicating timed automata. The models are extended with faults associated with probabilities of occurrence. This enables a fault tree analysis of the system using minimal cut sets...

  14. Reliability analysis of two unit parallel repairable industrial system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohit Kumar Kakkar

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this work is to present a reliability and profit analysis of a two-dissimilar parallel unit system under the assumption that operative unit cannot fail after post repair inspection and replacement and there is only one repair facility. Failure and repair times of each unit are assumed to be uncorrelated. Using regenerative point technique various reliability characteristics are obtained which are useful to system designers and industrial managers. Graphical behaviors of mean time to system failure (MTSF and profit function have also been studied. In this paper, some important measures of reliability characteristics of a two non-identical unit standby system model with repair, inspection and post repair are obtained using regenerative point technique.

  15. Analysis of the Reliability of the "Alternator- Alternator Belt" System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Mavrin

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Before starting and also during the exploitation of va1ioussystems, it is vety imp011ant to know how the system and itsparts will behave during operation regarding breakdowns, i.e.failures. It is possible to predict the service behaviour of a systemby determining the functions of reliability, as well as frequencyand intensity of failures.The paper considers the theoretical basics of the functionsof reliability, frequency and intensity of failures for the twomain approaches. One includes 6 equal intetvals and the other13 unequal intetvals for the concrete case taken from practice.The reliability of the "alternator- alternator belt" system installedin the buses, has been analysed, according to the empiricaldata on failures.The empitical data on failures provide empirical functionsof reliability and frequency and intensity of failures, that arepresented in tables and graphically. The first analysis perfO!med by dividing the mean time between failures into 6 equaltime intervals has given the forms of empirical functions of fa ilurefrequency and intensity that approximately cotTespond totypical functions. By dividing the failure phase into 13 unequalintetvals with two failures in each interval, these functions indicateexplicit transitions from early failure inte1val into the randomfailure interval, i.e. into the ageing intetval. Functions thusobtained are more accurate and represent a better solution forthe given case.In order to estimate reliability of these systems with greateraccuracy, a greater number of failures needs to be analysed.

  16. Reliability and maintainability analysis of electrical system of drum shearers

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SEYED Hadi Hoseinie; MOHAMMAD Ataei; REZA Khalokakaie; UDAY Kumar

    2011-01-01

    The reliability and maintainability of electrical system of drum shearer at Parvade.l Coal Mine in central Iran was analyzed. The maintenance and failure data were collected during 19 months of shearer operation. According to trend and serial correlation tests, the data were independent and identically distributed (iid) and therefore the statistical techniques were used for modeling. The data analysis show that the time between failures (TBF) and time to repair (TTR) data obey the lognormal and Weibull 3 parameters distribution respectively. Reliability-based preventive maintenance time intervals for electrical system of the drum shearer were calculated with regard to reliability plot. The reliability-based maintenance intervals for 90%, 80%, 70% and 50% reliability level are respectively 9.91, 17.96, 27.56 and 56.1 h. Also the calculations show that time to repair (TTR) of this system varies in range 0.17-4 h with 1.002 h as mean time to repair (MTTR). There is a 80% chance that the electrical system of shearer of Parvade.l mine repair will be accomplished within 1.45 h.

  17. Bayesian Exploratory Factor Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Conti, Gabriella; Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Heckman, James J.

    2014-01-01

    This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor......, and the corresponding factor loadings. Classical identification criteria are applied and integrated into our Bayesian procedure to generate models that are stable and clearly interpretable. A Monte Carlo study confirms the validity of the approach. The method is used to produce interpretable low dimensional aggregates...

  18. The Revised Child Anxiety and Depression Scale: A systematic review and reliability generalization meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piqueras, Jose A; Martín-Vivar, María; Sandin, Bonifacio; San Luis, Concepción; Pineda, David

    2017-08-15

    Anxiety and depression are among the most common mental disorders during childhood and adolescence. Among the instruments for the brief screening assessment of symptoms of anxiety and depression, the Revised Child Anxiety and Depression Scale (RCADS) is one of the more widely used. Previous studies have demonstrated the reliability of the RCADS for different assessment settings and different versions. The aims of this study were to examine the mean reliability of the RCADS and the influence of the moderators on the RCADS reliability. We searched in EBSCO, PsycINFO, Google Scholar, Web of Science, and NCBI databases and other articles manually from lists of references of extracted articles. A total of 146 studies were included in our meta-analysis. The RCADS showed robust internal consistency reliability in different assessment settings, countries, and languages. We only found that reliability of the RCADS was significantly moderated by the version of RCADS. However, these differences in reliability between different versions of the RCADS were slight and can be due to the number of items. We did not examine factor structure, factorial invariance across gender, age, or country, and test-retest reliability of the RCADS. The RCADS is a reliable instrument for cross-cultural use, with the advantage of providing more information with a low number of items in the assessment of both anxiety and depression symptoms in children and adolescents. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  19. A Reliability-Based Analysis of Bicyclist Red-Light Running Behavior at Urban Intersections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mei Huan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the red-light running behavior of bicyclists at urban intersections based on reliability analysis approach. Bicyclists’ crossing behavior was collected by video recording. Four proportional hazard models by the Cox, exponential, Weibull, and Gompertz distributions were proposed to analyze the covariate effects on safety crossing reliability. The influential variables include personal characteristics, movement information, and situation factors. The results indicate that the Cox hazard model gives the best description of bicyclists’ red-light running behavior. Bicyclists’ safety crossing reliabilities decrease as their waiting times increase. There are about 15.5% of bicyclists with negligible waiting times, who are at high risk of red-light running and very low safety crossing reliabilities. The proposed reliability models can capture the covariates’ effects on bicyclists’ crossing behavior at signalized intersections. Both personal characteristics and traffic conditions have significant effects on bicyclists’ safety crossing reliability. A bicyclist is more likely to have low safety crossing reliability and high violation risk when more riders are crossing against the red light, and they wait closer to the motorized lane. These findings provide valuable insights in understanding bicyclists’ violation behavior; and their implications in assessing bicyclists’ safety crossing reliability were discussed.

  20. Reliability test and failure analysis of high power LED packages*

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chen Zhaohui; Zhang Qin; Wang Kai; Luo Xiaobing; Liu Sheng

    2011-01-01

    A new type application specific light emitting diode (LED) package (ASLP) with freeform polycarbonate lens for street lighting is developed, whose manufacturing processes are compatible with a typical LED packaging process. The reliability test methods and failure criterions from different vendors are reviewed and compared. It is found that test methods and failure criterions are quite different. The rapid reliability assessment standards are urgently needed for the LED industry. 85 ℃/85 RH with 700 mA is used to test our LED modules with three other vendors for 1000 h, showing no visible degradation in optical performance for our modules, with two other vendors showing significant degradation. Some failure analysis methods such as C-SAM, Nano X-ray CT and optical microscope are used for LED packages. Some failure mechanisms such as delaminations and cracks are detected in the LED packages after the accelerated reliability testing. The finite element simulation method is helpful for the failure analysis and design of the reliability of the LED packaging. One example is used to show one currently used module in industry is vulnerable and may not easily pass the harsh thermal cycle testing.

  1. Strategic planning decision making using fuzzy SWOT-TOPSIS with reliability factor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohamad, Daud; Afandi, Nur Syamimi; Kamis, Nor Hanimah

    2015-10-01

    Strategic planning is a process of decision making and action for long-term activities in an organization. The Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) analysis has been commonly used to help organizations in strategizing their future direction by analyzing internal and external environment. However, SWOT analysis has some limitations as it is unable to prioritize appropriately the multiple alternative strategic decisions. Some efforts have been made to solve this problem by incorporating Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods. Nevertheless, another important aspect has raised concerns on obtaining the decision that is the reliability of the information. Decision makers evaluate differently depending on their level of confidence or sureness in the evaluation. This study proposes a decision making procedure for strategic planning using SWOT-TOPSIS method by incorporating the reliability factor of the evaluation based on Z-number. An example using a local authority in the east coast of Malaysia is illustrated to determine the strategic options ranking and to prioritize factors in each SWOT category.

  2. Factor Structure and Reliability of the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire and Prevalence Estimates of Trauma for Male and Female Street Youth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forde, David R.; Baron, Stephen W.; Scher, Christine D.; Stein, Murray B.

    2012-01-01

    This study examines the psychometric properties of the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire short form (CTQ-SF) with street youth who have run away or been expelled from their homes (N = 397). Internal reliability coefficients for the five clinical scales ranged from 0.65 to 0.95. Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) was used to test the five-factor…

  3. A Most Probable Point-Based Method for Reliability Analysis, Sensitivity Analysis and Design Optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Gene J.-W.; Gumbert, Clyde R.; Newman, Perry A.

    2004-01-01

    A major step in a most probable point (MPP)-based method for reliability analysis is to determine the MPP. This is usually accomplished by using an optimization search algorithm. The optimal solutions associated with the MPP provide measurements related to safety probability. This study focuses on two commonly used approximate probability integration methods; i.e., the Reliability Index Approach (RIA) and the Performance Measurement Approach (PMA). Their reliability sensitivity equations are first derived in this paper, based on the derivatives of their respective optimal solutions. Examples are then provided to demonstrate the use of these derivatives for better reliability analysis and Reliability-Based Design Optimization (RBDO).

  4. Fatigue Reliability Analysis of a Mono-Tower Platform

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Brincker, Rune

    1991-01-01

    In this paper, a fatigue reliability analysis of a Mono-tower platform is presented. The failure mode, fatigue failure in the butt welds, is investigated with two different models. The one with the fatigue strength expressed through SN relations, the other with the fatigue strength expressed thro...... of the natural period, damping ratio, current, stress spectrum and parameters describing the fatigue strength. Further, soil damping is shown to be significant for the Mono-tower.......In this paper, a fatigue reliability analysis of a Mono-tower platform is presented. The failure mode, fatigue failure in the butt welds, is investigated with two different models. The one with the fatigue strength expressed through SN relations, the other with the fatigue strength expressed...

  5. Analysis of Gumbel Model for Software Reliability Using Bayesian Paradigm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raj Kumar

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we have illustrated the suitability of Gumbel Model for software reliability data. The model parameters are estimated using likelihood based inferential procedure: classical as well as Bayesian. The quasi Newton-Raphson algorithm is applied to obtain the maximum likelihood estimates and associated probability intervals. The Bayesian estimates of the parameters of Gumbel model are obtained using Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC simulation method in OpenBUGS(established software for Bayesian analysis using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. The R functions are developed to study the statistical properties, model validation and comparison tools of the model and the output analysis of MCMC samples generated from OpenBUGS. Details of applying MCMC to parameter estimation for the Gumbel model are elaborated and a real software reliability data set is considered to illustrate the methods of inference discussed in this paper.

  6. Reliability analysis method applied in slope stability: slope prediction and forecast on stability analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wenjuan ZHANG; Li CHEN; Ning QU; Hai'an LIANG

    2006-01-01

    Landslide is one kind of geologic hazards that often happens all over the world. It brings huge losses to human life and property; therefore, it is very important to research it. This study focused in combination between single and regional landslide, traditional slope stability analysis method and reliability analysis method. Meanwhile, methods of prediction of slopes and reliability analysis were discussed.

  7. Reliability analysis based on the losses from failures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todinov, M T

    2006-04-01

    The conventional reliability analysis is based on the premise that increasing the reliability of a system will decrease the losses from failures. On the basis of counterexamples, it is demonstrated that this is valid only if all failures are associated with the same losses. In case of failures associated with different losses, a system with larger reliability is not necessarily characterized by smaller losses from failures. Consequently, a theoretical framework and models are proposed for a reliability analysis, linking reliability and the losses from failures. Equations related to the distributions of the potential losses from failure have been derived. It is argued that the classical risk equation only estimates the average value of the potential losses from failure and does not provide insight into the variability associated with the potential losses. Equations have also been derived for determining the potential and the expected losses from failures for nonrepairable and repairable systems with components arranged in series, with arbitrary life distributions. The equations are also valid for systems/components with multiple mutually exclusive failure modes. The expected losses given failure is a linear combination of the expected losses from failure associated with the separate failure modes scaled by the conditional probabilities with which the failure modes initiate failure. On this basis, an efficient method for simplifying complex reliability block diagrams has been developed. Branches of components arranged in series whose failures are mutually exclusive can be reduced to single components with equivalent hazard rate, downtime, and expected costs associated with intervention and repair. A model for estimating the expected losses from early-life failures has also been developed. For a specified time interval, the expected losses from early-life failures are a sum of the products of the expected number of failures in the specified time intervals covering the

  8. A Sensitivity Analysis on Component Reliability from Fatigue Life Computations

    Science.gov (United States)

    1992-02-01

    AD-A247 430 MTL TR 92-5 AD A SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS ON COMPONENT RELIABILITY FROM FATIGUE LIFE COMPUTATIONS DONALD M. NEAL, WILLIAM T. MATTHEWS, MARK G...HAGI OR GHANI NUMBI:H(s) Donald M. Neal, William T. Matthews, Mark G. Vangel, and Trevor Rudalevige 9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS lU...Technical Information Center, Cameron Station, Building 5, 5010 Duke Street, Alexandria, VA 22304-6145 2 ATTN: DTIC-FDAC I MIAC/ CINDAS , Purdue

  9. THE INVESTMENT RELIABILITY ANALYSIS FOR A SURFACE MINE

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    彭世济; 卢明银; 张达贤

    1990-01-01

    It is stipulated in the China national document, named"The Economical Appraisal Methods for Construction Projects" that dynamic analysis should dominate the project economical appraisal methods.This paper has set up a dynamic investment forecast model for Yuanbaoshan Surface Coal Mine. Based on this model, the investment reliability using simulation and analytic methods has been analysed, anti the probability that the designed internal rate of return can reach 8.4%, from economic points of view, have been also studied.

  10. Asymptotic Sampling for Reliability Analysis of Adhesive Bonded Stepped Lap Composite Joints

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kimiaeifar, Amin; Lund, Erik; Thomsen, Ole Thybo

    2013-01-01

    Reliability analysis coupled with finite element analysis (FEA) of composite structures is computationally very demanding and requires a large number of simulations to achieve an accurate prediction of the probability of failure with a small standard error. In this paper Asymptotic Sampling, which....... Three dimensional (3D) FEA is used for the structural analysis together with a design equation that is associated with a deterministic code-based design equation where reliability is secured by partial safety factors. The Tsai-Wu and the maximum principal stress failure criteria are used to predict...... failure in the composite and adhesive layers, respectively, and the results are compared with the target reliability level implicitly used in the wind turbine standard IEC 61400-1. The accuracy and efficiency of Asymptotic Sampling is investigated by comparing the results with predictions obtained using...

  11. Reliability analysis for new technology-based transmitters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brissaud, Florent, E-mail: florent.brissaud.2007@utt.f [Institut National de l' Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS), Parc Technologique Alata, BP 2, 60550 Verneuil-en-Halatte (France); Universite de Technologie de Troyes (UTT), Institut Charles Delaunay (ICD) and STMR UMR CNRS 6279, 12 rue Marie Curie, BP 2060, 10010 Troyes cedex (France); Barros, Anne; Berenguer, Christophe [Universite de Technologie de Troyes (UTT), Institut Charles Delaunay (ICD) and STMR UMR CNRS 6279, 12 rue Marie Curie, BP 2060, 10010 Troyes cedex (France); Charpentier, Dominique [Institut National de l' Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS), Parc Technologique Alata, BP 2, 60550 Verneuil-en-Halatte (France)

    2011-02-15

    The reliability analysis of new technology-based transmitters has to deal with specific issues: various interactions between both material elements and functions, undefined behaviours under faulty conditions, several transmitted data, and little reliability feedback. To handle these particularities, a '3-step' model is proposed, based on goal tree-success tree (GTST) approaches to represent both the functional and material aspects, and includes the faults and failures as a third part for supporting reliability analyses. The behavioural aspects are provided by relationship matrices, also denoted master logic diagrams (MLD), with stochastic values which represent direct relationships between system elements. Relationship analyses are then proposed to assess the effect of any fault or failure on any material element or function. Taking these relationships into account, the probabilities of malfunction and failure modes are evaluated according to time. Furthermore, uncertainty analyses tend to show that even if the input data and system behaviour are not well known, these previous results can be obtained in a relatively precise way. An illustration is provided by a case study on an infrared gas transmitter. These properties make the proposed model and corresponding reliability analyses especially suitable for intelligent transmitters (or 'smart sensors').

  12. Analysis and Reliability Performance Comparison of Different Facial Image Features

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Madhavan

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This study performs reliability analysis on the different facial features with weighted retrieval accuracy on increasing facial database images. There are many methods analyzed in the existing papers with constant facial databases mentioned in the literature review. There were not much work carried out to study the performance in terms of reliability and also how the method will perform on increasing the size of the database. In this study certain feature extraction methods were analyzed on the regular performance measure and also the performance measures are modified to fit the real time requirements by giving weight ages for the closer matches. In this study four facial feature extraction methods are performed, they are DWT with PCA, LWT with PCA, HMM with SVD and Gabor wavelet with HMM. Reliability of these methods are analyzed and reported. Among all these methods Gabor wavelet with HMM gives more reliability than other three methods performed. Experiments are carried out to evaluate the proposed approach on the Olivetti Research Laboratory (ORL face database.

  13. Preventive Replacement Decisions for Dragline Components Using Reliability Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nuray Demirel

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Reliability-based maintenance policies allow qualitative and quantitative evaluation of system downtimes via revealing main causes of breakdowns and discussing required preventive activities against failures. Application of preventive maintenance is especially important for mining machineries since production is highly affected from machinery breakdowns. Overburden stripping operations are one of the integral parts in surface coal mine productions. Draglines are extensively utilized in overburden stripping operations and they achieve earthmoving activities with bucket capacities up to 168 m3. The massive structure and operational severity of these machines increase the importance of performance awareness for individual working components. Research on draglines is rarely observed in the literature and maintenance studies for these earthmovers have been generally ignored. On this basis, this paper offered a comprehensive reliability assessment for two draglines currently operating in the Tunçbilek coal mine and discussed preventive replacement for wear-out components of the draglines considering cost factors.

  14. Reliability Factors for Electronic Components in a Storage Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    1977-09-01

    Dump storage is usually necessary when an Army must operate under mobile circumstances or in a new location outside the United States. In addition, the...Uthe, "Variables Affecting Weld Quality in Ultrasonic Aluminum Wire Bonding", Solid State Technoilogy , 12, 72 (1969). 45. C. W. Wirsing, Solid State...is related to the ionic mobility . Factors which are important to the build-up of surface-ion induced inversion layers are the moisture levels 4n the

  15. Using functional analysis diagrams to improve product reliability and cost

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ioannis Michalakoudis

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Failure mode and effects analysis and value engineering are well-established methods in the manufacturing industry, commonly applied to optimize product reliability and cost, respectively. Both processes, however, require cross-functional teams to identify and evaluate the product/process functions and are resource-intensive, hence their application is mostly limited to large organizations. In this article, we present a methodology involving the concurrent execution of failure mode and effects analysis and value engineering, assisted by a set of hierarchical functional analysis diagram models, along with the outcomes of a pilot application in a UK-based manufacturing small and medium enterprise. Analysis of the results indicates that this new approach could significantly enhance the resource efficiency and effectiveness of both failure mode and effects analysis and value engineering processes.

  16. Mutation Analysis Approach to Develop Reliable Object-Oriented Software

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monalisa Sarma

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In general, modern programs are large and complex and it is essential that they should be highly reliable in applications. In order to develop highly reliable software, Java programming language developer provides a rich set of exceptions and exception handling mechanisms. Exception handling mechanisms are intended to help developers build robust programs. Given a program with exception handling constructs, for an effective testing, we are to detect whether all possible exceptions are raised and caught or not. However, complex exception handling constructs make it tedious to trace which exceptions are handled and where and which exceptions are passed on. In this paper, we address this problem and propose a mutation analysis approach to develop reliable object-oriented programs. We have applied a number of mutation operators to create a large set of mutant programs with different type of faults. We then generate test cases and test data to uncover exception related faults. The test suite so obtained is applied to the mutant programs measuring the mutation score and hence verifying whether mutant programs are effective or not. We have tested our approach with a number of case studies to substantiate the efficacy of the proposed mutation analysis technique.

  17. Strength Reliability Analysis of Stiffened Cylindrical Shells Considering Failure Correlation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xu Bai; Liping Sun; Wei Qin; Yongkun Lv

    2014-01-01

    The stiffened cylindrical shell is commonly used for the pressure hull of submersibles and the legs of offshore platforms. There are various failure modes because of uncertainty with the structural size and material properties, uncertainty of the calculation model and machining errors. Correlations among failure modes must be considered with the structural reliability of stiffened cylindrical shells. However, the traditional method cannot consider the correlations effectively. The aim of this study is to present a method of reliability analysis for stiffened cylindrical shells which considers the correlations among failure modes. Firstly, the joint failure probability calculation formula of two related failure modes is derived through use of the 2D joint probability density function. Secondly, the full probability formula of the tandem structural system is given with consideration to the correlations among failure modes. At last, the accuracy of the system reliability calculation is verified through use of the Monte Carlo simulation. Result of the analysis shows the failure probability of stiffened cylindrical shells can be gained through adding the failure probability of each mode.

  18. Reliability Analysis of Penetration Systems Using Nondeterministic Methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    FIELD JR.,RICHARD V.; PAEZ,THOMAS L.; RED-HORSE,JOHN R.

    1999-10-27

    Device penetration into media such as metal and soil is an application of some engineering interest. Often, these devices contain internal components and it is of paramount importance that all significant components survive the severe environment that accompanies the penetration event. In addition, the system must be robust to perturbations in its operating environment, some of which exhibit behavior which can only be quantified to within some level of uncertainty. In the analysis discussed herein, methods to address the reliability of internal components for a specific application system are discussed. The shock response spectrum (SRS) is utilized in conjunction with the Advanced Mean Value (AMV) and Response Surface methods to make probabilistic statements regarding the predicted reliability of internal components. Monte Carlo simulation methods are also explored.

  19. Analytical reliability analysis of soil-water characteristic curve

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johari A.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The Soil Water Characteristic Curve (SWCC, also known as the soil water-retention curve, is an important part of any constitutive relationship for unsaturated soils. Deterministic assessment of SWCC has received considerable attention in the past few years. However the uncertainties of the parameters which affect SWCC dictate that the problem is of a probabilistic nature rather than being deterministic. In this research, a Gene Expression Programming (GEP-based SWCC model is employed to assess the reliability of SWCC. For this purpose, the Jointly Distributed Random Variables (JDRV method is used as an analytical method for reliability analysis. All input parameters of the model which are initial void ratio, initial water content, silt and clay contents are set to be stochastic and modelled using truncated normal probability density functions. The results are compared with those of the Monte Carlo (MC simulation. It is shown that the initial water content is the most effective parameter in SWCC.

  20. Optimization Based Efficiencies in First Order Reliability Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peck, Jeffrey A.; Mahadevan, Sankaran

    2003-01-01

    This paper develops a method for updating the gradient vector of the limit state function in reliability analysis using Broyden's rank one updating technique. In problems that use commercial code as a black box, the gradient calculations are usually done using a finite difference approach, which becomes very expensive for large system models. The proposed method replaces the finite difference gradient calculations in a standard first order reliability method (FORM) with Broyden's Quasi-Newton technique. The resulting algorithm of Broyden updates within a FORM framework (BFORM) is used to run several example problems, and the results compared to standard FORM results. It is found that BFORM typically requires fewer functional evaluations that FORM to converge to the same answer.

  1. Issues in benchmarking human reliability analysis methods : a literature review.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lois, Erasmia (US Nuclear Regulatory Commission); Forester, John Alan; Tran, Tuan Q. (Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID); Hendrickson, Stacey M. Langfitt; Boring, Ronald L. (Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID)

    2008-04-01

    There is a diversity of human reliability analysis (HRA) methods available for use in assessing human performance within probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). Due to the significant differences in the methods, including the scope, approach, and underlying models, there is a need for an empirical comparison investigating the validity and reliability of the methods. To accomplish this empirical comparison, a benchmarking study is currently underway that compares HRA methods with each other and against operator performance in simulator studies. In order to account for as many effects as possible in the construction of this benchmarking study, a literature review was conducted, reviewing past benchmarking studies in the areas of psychology and risk assessment. A number of lessons learned through these studies are presented in order to aid in the design of future HRA benchmarking endeavors.

  2. POSSIBILITY AND EVIDENCE-BASED RELIABILITY ANALYSIS AND DESIGN OPTIMIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong-Zhong Huang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Engineering design under uncertainty has gained considerable attention in recent years. A great multitude of new design optimization methodologies and reliability analysis approaches are put forth with the aim of accommodating various uncertainties. Uncertainties in practical engineering applications are commonly classified into two categories, i.e., aleatory uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty. Aleatory uncertainty arises because of unpredictable variation in the performance and processes of systems, it is irreducible even adding more data or knowledge. On the other hand, epistemic uncertainty stems from lack of knowledge of the system due to limited data, measurement limitations, or simplified approximations in modeling system behavior and it can be reduced by obtaining more data or knowledge. More specifically, aleatory uncertainty is naturally represented by a statistical distribution and its associated parameters can be characterized by sufficient data. If, however, the data is limited and can be quantified in a statistical sense, epistemic uncertainty can be considered as an alternative tool in such a situation. Of the several optional treatments for epistemic uncertainty, possibility theory and evidence theory have proved to be the most computationally efficient and stable for reliability analysis and engineering design optimization. This study first attempts to provide a better understanding of uncertainty in engineering design by giving a comprehensive overview of its classifications, theories and design considerations. Then a review is conducted of general topics such as the foundations and applications of possibility theory and evidence theory. This overview includes the most recent results from theoretical research, computational developments and performance improvement of possibility theory and evidence theory with an emphasis on revealing the capability and characteristics of quantifying uncertainty from different perspectives

  3. Reliability analysis of production ships with emphasis on load combination and ultimate strength

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Xiaozhi

    1995-05-01

    This thesis deals with ultimate strength and reliability analysis of offshore production ships, accounting for stochastic load combinations, using a typical North Sea production ship for reference. A review of methods for structural reliability analysis is presented. Probabilistic methods are established for the still water and vertical wave bending moments. Linear stress analysis of a midships transverse frame is carried out, four different finite element models are assessed. Upon verification of the general finite element code ABAQUS with a typical ship transverse girder example, for which test results are available, ultimate strength analysis of the reference transverse frame is made to obtain the ultimate load factors associated with the specified pressure loads in Det norske Veritas Classification rules for ships and rules for production vessels. Reliability analysis is performed to develop appropriate design criteria for the transverse structure. It is found that the transverse frame failure mode does not seem to contribute to the system collapse. Ultimate strength analysis of the longitudinally stiffened panels is performed, accounting for the combined biaxial and lateral loading. Reliability based design of the longitudinally stiffened bottom and deck panels is accomplished regarding the collapse mode under combined biaxial and lateral loads. 107 refs., 76 refs., 37 tabs.

  4. Factor structure and internal reliability of an exercise health belief model scale in a Mexican population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villar, Oscar Armando Esparza-Del; Montañez-Alvarado, Priscila; Gutiérrez-Vega, Marisela; Carrillo-Saucedo, Irene Concepción; Gurrola-Peña, Gloria Margarita; Ruvalcaba-Romero, Norma Alicia; García-Sánchez, María Dolores; Ochoa-Alcaraz, Sergio Gabriel

    2017-03-01

    Mexico is one of the countries with the highest rates of overweight and obesity around the world, with 68.8% of men and 73% of women reporting both. This is a public health problem since there are several health related consequences of not exercising, like having cardiovascular diseases or some types of cancers. All of these problems can be prevented by promoting exercise, so it is important to evaluate models of health behaviors to achieve this goal. Among several models the Health Belief Model is one of the most studied models to promote health related behaviors. This study validates the first exercise scale based on the Health Belief Model (HBM) in Mexicans with the objective of studying and analyzing this model in Mexico. Items for the scale called the Exercise Health Belief Model Scale (EHBMS) were developed by a health research team, then the items were applied to a sample of 746 participants, male and female, from five cities in Mexico. The factor structure of the items was analyzed with an exploratory factor analysis and the internal reliability with Cronbach's alpha. The exploratory factor analysis reported the expected factor structure based in the HBM. The KMO index (0.92) and the Barlett's sphericity test (p factor loadings, ranging from 0.31 to 0.92, and the internal consistencies of the factors were also acceptable, with alpha values ranging from 0.67 to 0.91. The EHBMS is a validated scale that can be used to measure exercise based on the HBM in Mexican populations.

  5. Factor Analysis and AIC.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akaike, Hirotugu

    1987-01-01

    The Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) was introduced to extend the method of maximum likelihood to the multimodel situation. Use of the AIC in factor analysis is interesting when it is viewed as the choice of a Bayesian model; thus, wider applications of AIC are possible. (Author/GDC)

  6. RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF URBAN RAINWATER HARVESTING FOR THREE TEXAS CITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dustin Lawrence

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to inform decision makers at state and local levels, as well as property owners about the amount of water that can be supplied by rainwater harvesting systems in Texas so that it may be included in any future planning. Reliability of a rainwater tank is important because people want to know that a source of water can be depended on. Performance analyses were conducted on rainwater harvesting tanks for three Texas cities under different rainfall conditions and multiple scenarios to demonstrate the importance of optimizing rainwater tank design. Reliability curves were produced and reflect the percentage of days in a year that water can be supplied by a tank. Operational thresholds were reached in all scenarios and mark the point at which reliability increases by only 2% or less with an increase in tank size. A payback period analysis was conducted on tank sizes to estimate the amount of time it would take to recoup the cost of installing a rainwater harvesting system.

  7. A Bayesian Framework for Reliability Analysis of Spacecraft Deployments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, John W.; Gallo, Luis; Kaminsky, Mark

    2012-01-01

    Deployable subsystems are essential to mission success of most spacecraft. These subsystems enable critical functions including power, communications and thermal control. The loss of any of these functions will generally result in loss of the mission. These subsystems and their components often consist of unique designs and applications for which various standardized data sources are not applicable for estimating reliability and for assessing risks. In this study, a two stage sequential Bayesian framework for reliability estimation of spacecraft deployment was developed for this purpose. This process was then applied to the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) Sunshield subsystem, a unique design intended for thermal control of the Optical Telescope Element. Initially, detailed studies of NASA deployment history, "heritage information", were conducted, extending over 45 years of spacecraft launches. This information was then coupled to a non-informative prior and a binomial likelihood function to create a posterior distribution for deployments of various subsystems uSing Monte Carlo Markov Chain sampling. Select distributions were then coupled to a subsequent analysis, using test data and anomaly occurrences on successive ground test deployments of scale model test articles of JWST hardware, to update the NASA heritage data. This allowed for a realistic prediction for the reliability of the complex Sunshield deployment, with credibility limits, within this two stage Bayesian framework.

  8. A Research Roadmap for Computation-Based Human Reliability Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boring, Ronald [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Mandelli, Diego [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Joe, Jeffrey [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Smith, Curtis [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Groth, Katrina [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-08-01

    The United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) is sponsoring research through the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program to extend the life of the currently operating fleet of commercial nuclear power plants. The Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) research pathway within LWRS looks at ways to maintain and improve the safety margins of these plants. The RISMC pathway includes significant developments in the area of thermalhydraulics code modeling and the development of tools to facilitate dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). PRA is primarily concerned with the risk of hardware systems at the plant; yet, hardware reliability is often secondary in overall risk significance to human errors that can trigger or compound undesirable events at the plant. This report highlights ongoing efforts to develop a computation-based approach to human reliability analysis (HRA). This computation-based approach differs from existing static and dynamic HRA approaches in that it: (i) interfaces with a dynamic computation engine that includes a full scope plant model, and (ii) interfaces with a PRA software toolset. The computation-based HRA approach presented in this report is called the Human Unimodels for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER) and incorporates in a hybrid fashion elements of existing HRA methods to interface with new computational tools developed under the RISMC pathway. The goal of this research effort is to model human performance more accurately than existing approaches, thereby minimizing modeling uncertainty found in current plant risk models.

  9. Reliability and risk analysis using artificial neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robinson, D.G. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1995-12-31

    This paper discusses preliminary research at Sandia National Laboratories into the application of artificial neural networks for reliability and risk analysis. The goal of this effort is to develop a reliability based methodology that captures the complex relationship between uncertainty in material properties and manufacturing processes and the resulting uncertainty in life prediction estimates. The inputs to the neural network model are probability density functions describing system characteristics and the output is a statistical description of system performance. The most recent application of this methodology involves the comparison of various low-residue, lead-free soldering processes with the desire to minimize the associated waste streams with no reduction in product reliability. Model inputs include statistical descriptions of various material properties such as the coefficients of thermal expansion of solder and substrate. Consideration is also given to stochastic variation in the operational environment to which the electronic components might be exposed. Model output includes a probabilistic characterization of the fatigue life of the surface mounted component.

  10. Assessment of family functioning in Caucasian and Hispanic Americans: reliability, validity, and factor structure of the Family Assessment Device.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aarons, Gregory A; McDonald, Elizabeth J; Connelly, Cynthia D; Newton, Rae R

    2007-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the factor structure, reliability, and validity of the Family Assessment Device (FAD) among a national sample of Caucasian and Hispanic American families receiving public sector mental health services. A confirmatory factor analysis conducted to test model fit yielded equivocal findings. With few exceptions, indices of model fit, reliability, and validity were poorer for Hispanic Americans compared with Caucasian Americans. Contrary to our expectation, an exploratory factor analysis did not result in a better fitting model of family functioning. Without stronger evidence supporting a reformulation of the FAD, we recommend against such a course of action. Findings highlight the need for additional research on the role of culture in measurement of family functioning.

  11. Reliability Equivalence Factors of a System with 2 Non-identical Mixed Lifetimes and Delayed Time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdelfattah Mustafa

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: In reliability theory and operations research, there are many methods and techniques to improve the performance of a system. The aim of this study is to generalize reliability equivalence technique to apply it to a mixed failure lifetimes system f1 (t, f2 (t with delayed time. Approach: We shall improve the system by using some reliability techniques: (i reducing the failure for some lifetimes; (ii add hot duplication components; (iii add cold duplication components; (iv add cold duplication components with imperfect switches. We start by establishing two different types of reliability equivalence factors, the Survival Reliability Equivalence (SRE and Mean Reliability Equivalence (MRE factors. Also, we introduced some numerical results. Results: The system reliability function and mean time to failure will be used as reference of the system performances. For this reason, we obtain the reliability functions and mean time to failures of the original and improved systems using each improving methods. Conclusion: The results can be used to distinguish between the original and improved systems performances and calculate the equivalent between different cases of improving methods.

  12. Investigation for Ensuring the Reliability of the MELCOR Analysis Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sung, Joonyoung; Maeng, Yunhwan; Lee, Jaeyoung [Handong Global Univ., Pohang (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    Flow rate could be also main factor to be proven because it is in charge of a role which takes thermal balance through heat transfer in inner side of fuel assembly. Some problems about a reliability of MELCOR results could be posed in the 2{sup nd} technical report of NSRC project. In order to confirm whether MELCOR results are dependable, experimental data of Sandia Fuel Project 1 phase were used to be compared to be a reference. In Spent Fuel Pool (SFP) severe accident, especially in case of boil-off, partial loss of coolant accident, and complete loss of coolant accident; heat source and flow rate could be main points to analyze the MELCOR results. Heat source might be composed as decay heat and oxidation heat. Because heat source makes it possible to lead a zirconium fire situation if it is satisfied that heat accumulates in spent fuel rod and then cladding temperature could be raised continuously to be generated an oxidation heat, this might be a main factor to be confirmed. This work was proposed to investigate reliability of MELCOR results in order to confirm physical phenomena if SFP severe accident is occurred. Almost results showed that MELCOR results were significantly different by minute change of main parameter in identical condition. Therefore it could be necessary that oxidation coefficients have to be chosen as value to delineate real phenomena as possible.

  13. Reliability and Robustness Analysis of the Masinga Dam under Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hayden Postle-Floyd

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Kenya’s water abstraction must meet the projected growth in municipal and irrigation demand by the end of 2030 in order to achieve the country’s industrial and economic development plan. The Masinga dam, on the Tana River, is the key to meeting this goal to satisfy the growing demands whilst also continuing to provide hydroelectric power generation. This study quantitatively assesses the reliability and robustness of the Masinga dam system under uncertain future supply and demand using probabilistic climate and population projections, and examines how long-term planning may improve the longevity of the dam. River flow and demand projections are used alongside each other as inputs to the dam system simulation model linked to an optimisation engine to maximise water availability. Water availability after demand satisfaction is assessed for future years, and the projected reliability of the system is calculated for selected years. The analysis shows that maximising power generation on a short-term year-by-year basis achieves 80%, 50% and 1% reliability by 2020, 2025 and 2030 onwards, respectively. Longer term optimal planning, however, has increased system reliability to up to 95% in 2020, 80% in 2025, and more than 40% in 2030 onwards. In addition, increasing the capacity of the reservoir by around 25% can significantly improve the robustness of the system for all future time periods. This study provides a platform for analysing the implication of different planning and management of Masinga dam and suggests that careful consideration should be given to account for growing municipal needs and irrigation schemes in both the immediate and the associated Tana River basin.

  14. Human Performance Modeling for Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boring, Ronald Laurids [Idaho National Laboratory; Joe, Jeffrey Clark [Idaho National Laboratory; Mandelli, Diego [Idaho National Laboratory

    2015-08-01

    Part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Light Water Reac- tor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Charac- terization (RISMC) Pathway develops approaches to estimating and managing safety margins. RISMC simulations pair deterministic plant physics models with probabilistic risk models. As human interactions are an essential element of plant risk, it is necessary to integrate human actions into the RISMC risk framework. In this paper, we review simulation based and non simulation based human reliability analysis (HRA) methods. This paper summarizes the founda- tional information needed to develop a feasible approach to modeling human in- teractions in RISMC simulations.

  15. Fault Diagnosis and Reliability Analysis Using Fuzzy Logic Method

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Miao Zhinong; Xu Yang; Zhao Xiangyu

    2006-01-01

    A new fuzzy logic fault diagnosis method is proposed. In this method, fuzzy equations are employed to estimate the component state of a system based on the measured system performance and the relationship between component state and system performance which is called as "performance-parameter" knowledge base and constructed by expert. Compared with the traditional fault diagnosis method, this fuzzy logic method can use humans intuitive knowledge and dose not need a precise mapping between system performance and component state. Simulation proves its effectiveness in fault diagnosis. Then, the reliability analysis is performed based on the fuzzy logic method.

  16. Improving Predictions with Reliable Extrapolation Schemes and Better Understanding of Factorization

    CERN Document Server

    More, Sushant N

    2016-01-01

    We investigate two distinct sources of uncertainty in low-energy nuclear physics calculations and develop ways to account for them. Harmonic oscillator basis expansions are widely used in ab-initio nuclear structure calculations. Finite computational resources usually require that the basis be truncated before observables are fully converged, necessitating reliable extrapolation schemes. We show that a finite oscillator basis effectively imposes a hard-wall boundary condition. We accurately determine the position of the hard-wall as a function of oscillator space parameters, derive extrapolation formulas for the energy and other observables, and discuss the extension of this approach to higher angular momentum. Nucleon knockout reactions have been widely used to study and understand nuclear properties. Such an analysis implicitly assumes that the effects of the probe can be separated from the physics of the target nucleus. This factorization between nuclear structure and reaction components depends on the ren...

  17. Spatial reliability analysis of a wind turbine blade cross section subjected to multi-axial extreme loading

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dimitrov, Nikolay Krasimirov; Bitsche, Robert; Blasques, José Pedro Albergaria Amaral

    2017-01-01

    properties, progressive material failure, and system reliability effects. An example analysis of reliability against material failure is demonstrated for a blade cross section. Based on the study we discuss the implications of using a system reliability approach, the effect of spatial correlation length......This paper presents a methodology for structural reliability analysis of wind turbine blades. The study introduces several novel elements by taking into account loading direction using a multiaxial probabilistic load model, considering random material strength, spatial correlation between material......, type of material degradation algorithm, and reliability methods on the system failure probability, as well as the main factors that have an influence on the reliability. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved....

  18. Integration of human reliability analysis into the high consequence process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Houghton, F.K.; Morzinski, J.

    1998-12-01

    When performing a hazards analysis (HA) for a high consequence process, human error often plays a significant role in the hazards analysis. In order to integrate human error into the hazards analysis, a human reliability analysis (HRA) is performed. Human reliability is the probability that a person will correctly perform a system-required activity in a required time period and will perform no extraneous activity that will affect the correct performance. Even though human error is a very complex subject that can only approximately be addressed in risk assessment, an attempt must be made to estimate the effect of human errors. The HRA provides data that can be incorporated in the hazard analysis event. This paper will discuss the integration of HRA into a HA for the disassembly of a high explosive component. The process was designed to use a retaining fixture to hold the high explosive in place during a rotation of the component. This tool was designed as a redundant safety feature to help prevent a drop of the explosive. This paper will use the retaining fixture to demonstrate the following HRA methodology`s phases. The first phase is to perform a task analysis. The second phase is the identification of the potential human, both cognitive and psychomotor, functions performed by the worker. During the last phase the human errors are quantified. In reality, the HRA process is an iterative process in which the stages overlap and information gathered in one stage may be used to refine a previous stage. The rationale for the decision to use or not use the retaining fixture and the role the HRA played in the decision will be discussed.

  19. Assessing the Reliability, Factor Structure, and Validity of the African Self-Consciousness Scale in a General Population of African Americans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stokes, Julie E.; And Others

    1994-01-01

    This paper investigates the psychometric properties of the African Self-Consciousness (ASC) Scale in a noncollege heterogeneous population of 147 African Americans to determine the reliability and validity of the ASC Scale. Based on analysis of the scale's reliability, factor structure, and construct validity, the study shows the ASC Scale to be a…

  20. Human reliability analysis of the Tehran research reactor using the SPAR-H method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barati Ramin

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to cover human reliability analysis of the Tehran research reactor using an appropriate method for the representation of human failure probabilities. In the present work, the technique for human error rate prediction and standardized plant analysis risk-human reliability methods have been utilized to quantify different categories of human errors, applied extensively to nuclear power plants. Human reliability analysis is, indeed, an integral and significant part of probabilistic safety analysis studies, without it probabilistic safety analysis would not be a systematic and complete representation of actual plant risks. In addition, possible human errors in research reactors constitute a significant part of the associated risk of such installations and including them in a probabilistic safety analysis for such facilities is a complicated issue. Standardized plant analysis risk-human can be used to address these concerns; it is a well-documented and systematic human reliability analysis system with tables for human performance choices prepared in consultation with experts in the domain. In this method, performance shaping factors are selected via tables, human action dependencies are accounted for, and the method is well designed for the intended use. In this study, in consultations with reactor operators, human errors are identified and adequate performance shaping factors are assigned to produce proper human failure probabilities. Our importance analysis has revealed that human action contained in the possibility of an external object falling on the reactor core are the most significant human errors concerning the Tehran research reactor to be considered in reactor emergency operating procedures and operator training programs aimed at improving reactor safety.

  1. Analysis of the Kinematic Accuracy Reliability of a 3-DOF Parallel Robot Manipulator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guohua Cui

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Kinematic accuracy reliability is an important performance index in the evaluation of mechanism quality. By using a 3- DOF 3-PUU parallel robot manipulator as the research object, the position and orientation error model was derived by mapping the relation between the input and output of the mechanism. Three error sensitivity indexes that evaluate the kinematic accuracy of the parallel robot manipulator were obtained by adapting the singular value decomposition of the error translation matrix. Considering the influence of controllable and uncontrollable factors on the kinematic accuracy, the mathematical model of reliability based on random probability was employed. The measurement and calculation method for the evaluation of the mechanism’s kinematic reliability level was also provided. By analysing the mechanism’s errors and reliability, the law of surface error sensitivity for the location and structure parameters was obtained. The kinematic reliability of the parallel robot manipulator was statistically computed on the basis of the Monte Carlo simulation method. The reliability analysis of kinematic accuracy provides a theoretical basis for design optimization and error compensation.

  2. Reliability of a Tissue Microarray in Detecting Thyroid Transcription Factor-1 Protein in Lung Carcinomas

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiaoyan Bai; Hong Shen

    2007-01-01

    OBJECTIVE To compare the expression of the thyroid transcription factor-1 (TTF-1) in human normal adult type Ⅱ alveolar epithelial cells,embryonic pneumocytes and cancer cells of lung carcinoma and metastatic lymph nodes using a tissue microarray (TMA) along with paired conventional full sections.and to jnvestigate the reliability of tissue microarrays in detecting protein expression in lung carcinoma.METHODS A lung carcinoma TMA including 765 cores was constructed.TTF-1 protein expression in both TMA and paired conventional full sections were detected by yhe immunohistochemical SP method using a monoclonal antibody to TTF-1.A PU (Positive Unit) of TTF-1 protein was assessed quantitatively by the Leica Q500MC image analysis system with results from the paired conventional full sections as controls.RESULTS There was no signifcance between TMA and paired conven tional full sections in TTF-1 expression in difierent nuclei of the lung tissue.CONCLUSION TTF-1 protein expression in lung carcinoma detected by TMA was highly concordanl with that of paired full sections.TMA is a reliable method in detecting protein expression.

  3. Fatigue Reliability Analysis of Wind Turbine Cast Components

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hesam Mirzaei Rafsanjani

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The fatigue life of wind turbine cast components, such as the main shaft in a drivetrain, is generally determined by defects from the casting process. These defects may reduce the fatigue life and they are generally distributed randomly in components. The foundries, cutting facilities and test facilities can affect the verification of properties by testing. Hence, it is important to have a tool to identify which foundry, cutting and/or test facility produces components which, based on the relevant uncertainties, have the largest expected fatigue life or, alternatively, have the largest reliability to be used for decision-making if additional cost considerations are added. In this paper, a statistical approach is presented based on statistical hypothesis testing and analysis of covariance (ANCOVA which can be applied to compare different groups (manufacturers, suppliers, test facilities, etc. and to quantify the relevant uncertainties using available fatigue tests. Illustrative results are presented as obtained by statistical analysis of a large set of fatigue data for casted test components typically used for wind turbines. Furthermore, the SN curves (fatigue life curves based on applied stress for fatigue assessment are estimated based on the statistical analyses and by introduction of physical, model and statistical uncertainties used for the illustration of reliability assessment.

  4. Reliability-based Calibration of Fatigue Safety Factors for Offshore Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes reliability-based investigations on the required safety factors / Fatigue Design Factors (FDF) values to be used for fatigue design of steel substructures for offshore wind turbines. Design and limit state equations are formulated and stochastic models for the uncertain...

  5. Current Human Reliability Analysis Methods Applied to Computerized Procedures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ronald L. Boring

    2012-06-01

    Computerized procedures (CPs) are an emerging technology within nuclear power plant control rooms. While CPs have been implemented internationally in advanced control rooms, to date no US nuclear power plant has implemented CPs in its main control room (Fink et al., 2009). Yet, CPs are a reality of new plant builds and are an area of considerable interest to existing plants, which see advantages in terms of enhanced ease of use and easier records management by omitting the need for updating hardcopy procedures. The overall intent of this paper is to provide a characterization of human reliability analysis (HRA) issues for computerized procedures. It is beyond the scope of this document to propose a new HRA approach or to recommend specific methods or refinements to those methods. Rather, this paper serves as a review of current HRA as it may be used for the analysis and review of computerized procedures.

  6. Transient Reliability Analysis Capability Developed for CARES/Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nemeth, Noel N.

    2001-01-01

    The CARES/Life software developed at the NASA Glenn Research Center provides a general-purpose design tool that predicts the probability of the failure of a ceramic component as a function of its time in service. This award-winning software has been widely used by U.S. industry to establish the reliability and life of a brittle material (e.g., ceramic, intermetallic, and graphite) structures in a wide variety of 21st century applications.Present capabilities of the NASA CARES/Life code include probabilistic life prediction of ceramic components subjected to fast fracture, slow crack growth (stress corrosion), and cyclic fatigue failure modes. Currently, this code can compute the time-dependent reliability of ceramic structures subjected to simple time-dependent loading. For example, in slow crack growth failure conditions CARES/Life can handle sustained and linearly increasing time-dependent loads, whereas in cyclic fatigue applications various types of repetitive constant-amplitude loads can be accounted for. However, in real applications applied loads are rarely that simple but vary with time in more complex ways such as engine startup, shutdown, and dynamic and vibrational loads. In addition, when a given component is subjected to transient environmental and or thermal conditions, the material properties also vary with time. A methodology has now been developed to allow the CARES/Life computer code to perform reliability analysis of ceramic components undergoing transient thermal and mechanical loading. This means that CARES/Life will be able to analyze finite element models of ceramic components that simulate dynamic engine operating conditions. The methodology developed is generalized to account for material property variation (on strength distribution and fatigue) as a function of temperature. This allows CARES/Life to analyze components undergoing rapid temperature change in other words, components undergoing thermal shock. In addition, the capability has

  7. Productivity enhancement and reliability through AutoAnalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garetto, Anthony; Rademacher, Thomas; Schulz, Kristian

    2015-09-01

    The decreasing size and increasing complexity of photomask features, driven by the push to ever smaller technology nodes, places more and more challenges on the mask house, particularly in terms of yield management and cost reduction. Particularly challenging for mask shops is the inspection, repair and review cycle which requires more time and skill from operators due to the higher number of masks required per technology node and larger nuisance defect counts. While the measurement throughput of the AIMS™ platform has been improved in order to keep pace with these trends, the analysis of aerial images has seen little advancement and remains largely a manual process. This manual analysis of aerial images is time consuming, dependent on the skill level of the operator and significantly contributes to the overall mask manufacturing process flow. AutoAnalysis, the first application available for the FAVOR® platform, offers a solution to these problems by providing fully automated analysis of AIMS™ aerial images. Direct communication with the AIMS™ system allows automated data transfer and analysis parallel to the measurements. User defined report templates allow the relevant data to be output in a manner that can be tailored to various internal needs and support the requests of your customers. Productivity is significantly improved due to the fast analysis, operator time is saved and made available for other tasks and reliability is no longer a concern as the most defective region is always and consistently captured. In this paper the concept and approach of AutoAnalysis will be presented as well as an update to the status of the project. The benefits arising from the use of AutoAnalysis will be discussed in more detail and a study will be performed in order to demonstrate.

  8. ERP Reliability Analysis (ERA) Toolbox: An open-source toolbox for analyzing the reliability of event-related brain potentials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clayson, Peter E; Miller, Gregory A

    2017-01-01

    Generalizability theory (G theory) provides a flexible, multifaceted approach to estimating score reliability. G theory's approach to estimating score reliability has important advantages over classical test theory that are relevant for research using event-related brain potentials (ERPs). For example, G theory does not require parallel forms (i.e., equal means, variances, and covariances), can handle unbalanced designs, and provides a single reliability estimate for designs with multiple sources of error. This monograph provides a detailed description of the conceptual framework of G theory using examples relevant to ERP researchers, presents the algorithms needed to estimate ERP score reliability, and provides a detailed walkthrough of newly-developed software, the ERP Reliability Analysis (ERA) Toolbox, that calculates score reliability using G theory. The ERA Toolbox is open-source, Matlab software that uses G theory to estimate the contribution of the number of trials retained for averaging, group, and/or event types on ERP score reliability. The toolbox facilitates the rigorous evaluation of psychometric properties of ERP scores recommended elsewhere in this special issue.

  9. Reliability analysis and updating of deteriorating systems with subset simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schneider, Ronald; Thöns, Sebastian; Straub, Daniel

    2017-01-01

    Bayesian updating of the system deterioration model. The updated system reliability is then obtained through coupling the updated deterioration model with a probabilistic structural model. The underlying high-dimensional structural reliability problems are solved using subset simulation, which...

  10. Suitability Analysis of Continuous-Use Reliability Growth Projection Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-26

    exists for all types, shapes, and sizes. The primary focus of this study is a comparison of reliability growth projection models designed for...requirements to use reliability growth models, recent studies have noted trends in reliability failures throughout the DoD. In [14] Dr. Michael Gilmore...so a strict exponential distribu- tion was used to stay within their assumptions. In reality, however, reliability growth models often must be used

  11. Meeting Human Reliability Requirements through Human Factors Design, Testing, and Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    R. L. Boring

    2007-06-01

    In the design of novel systems, it is important for the human factors engineer to work in parallel with the human reliability analyst to arrive at the safest achievable design that meets design team safety goals and certification or regulatory requirements. This paper introduces the System Development Safety Triptych, a checklist of considerations for the interplay of human factors and human reliability through design, testing, and modeling in product development. This paper also explores three phases of safe system development, corresponding to the conception, design, and implementation of a system.

  12. Reliability-Based Calibration of Load Duration Factors for Timber Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Svensson, Staffan; Stang, Birgitte Friis Dela

    2005-01-01

    states and stochastic models for timber structures, load duration factors are calibrated using probabilistic methods. Load duration e.ects are estimated on basis of simulation of realizations of wind, snow and imposed loads in accordance with the load models in the Danish structural codes. Three damage...... is evaluated using representative short- and long-term limit states, and the load duration factor k mod is estimated using the probabilistic model such that equivalent reliability levels are obtained using short- and long-term design equations. Time variant reliability aspect is considered using a simple...

  13. A model for reliability analysis and calculation applied in an example from chemical industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pejović Branko B.

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The subject of the paper is reliability design in polymerization processes that occur in reactors of a chemical industry. The designed model is used to determine the characteristics and indicators of reliability, which enabled the determination of basic factors that result in a poor development of a process. This would reduce the anticipated losses through the ability to control them, as well as enabling the improvement of the quality of production, which is the major goal of the paper. The reliability analysis and calculation uses the deductive method based on designing of a scheme for fault tree analysis of a system based on inductive conclusions. It involves the use standard logical symbols and rules of Boolean algebra and mathematical logic. The paper eventually gives the results of the work in the form of quantitative and qualitative reliability analysis of the observed process, which served to obtain complete information on the probability of top event in the process, as well as objective decision making and alternative solutions.

  14. New Mathematical Derivations Applicable to Safety and Reliability Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cooper, J.A.; Ferson, S.

    1999-04-19

    Boolean logic expressions are often derived in safety and reliability analysis. Since the values of the operands are rarely exact, accounting for uncertainty with the tightest justifiable bounds is important. Accurate determination of result bounds is difficult when the inputs have constraints. One example of a constraint is that an uncertain variable that appears multiple times in a Boolean expression must always have the same value, although the value cannot be exactly specified. A solution for this repeated variable problem is demonstrated for two Boolean classes. The classes, termed functions with unate variables (including, but not limited to unate functions), and exclusive-or functions, frequently appear in Boolean equations for uncertain outcomes portrayed by logic trees (event trees and fault trees).

  15. Applicability of simplified human reliability analysis methods for severe accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boring, R.; St Germain, S. [Idaho National Lab., Idaho Falls, Idaho (United States); Banaseanu, G.; Chatri, H.; Akl, Y. [Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission, Ottawa, Ontario (Canada)

    2016-03-15

    Most contemporary human reliability analysis (HRA) methods were created to analyse design-basis accidents at nuclear power plants. As part of a comprehensive expansion of risk assessments at many plants internationally, HRAs will begin considering severe accident scenarios. Severe accidents, while extremely rare, constitute high consequence events that significantly challenge successful operations and recovery. Challenges during severe accidents include degraded and hazardous operating conditions at the plant, the shift in control from the main control room to the technical support center, the unavailability of plant instrumentation, and the need to use different types of operating procedures. Such shifts in operations may also test key assumptions in existing HRA methods. This paper discusses key differences between design basis and severe accidents, reviews efforts to date to create customized HRA methods suitable for severe accidents, and recommends practices for adapting existing HRA methods that are already being used for HRAs at the plants. (author)

  16. Time-dependent reliability analysis and condition assessment of structures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ellingwood, B.R. [Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD (United States)

    1997-01-01

    Structures generally play a passive role in assurance of safety in nuclear plant operation, but are important if the plant is to withstand the effect of extreme environmental or abnormal events. Relative to mechanical and electrical components, structural systems and components would be difficult and costly to replace. While the performance of steel or reinforced concrete structures in service generally has been very good, their strengths may deteriorate during an extended service life as a result of changes brought on by an aggressive environment, excessive loading, or accidental loading. Quantitative tools for condition assessment of aging structures can be developed using time-dependent structural reliability analysis methods. Such methods provide a framework for addressing the uncertainties attendant to aging in the decision process.

  17. Reliability analysis for the quench detection in the LHC machine

    CERN Document Server

    Denz, R; Vergara-Fernández, A

    2002-01-01

    The Large Hadron Collider (LHC) will incorporate a large amount of superconducting elements that require protection in case of a quench. Key elements in the quench protection system are the electronic quench detectors. Their reliability will have an important impact on the down time as well as on the operational cost of the collider. The expected rates of both false and missed quenches have been computed for several redundant detection schemes. The developed model takes account of the maintainability of the system to optimise the frequency of foreseen checks, and evaluate their influence on the performance of different detection topologies. Seen the uncertainty of the failure rate of the components combined with the LHC tunnel environment, the study has been completed with a sensitivity analysis of the results. The chosen detection scheme and the maintainability strategy for each detector family are given.

  18. Statistical Degradation Models for Reliability Analysis in Non-Destructive Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chetvertakova, E. S.; Chimitova, E. V.

    2017-04-01

    In this paper, we consider the application of the statistical degradation models for reliability analysis in non-destructive testing. Such models enable to estimate the reliability function (the dependence of non-failure probability on time) for the fixed critical level using the information of the degradation paths of tested items. The most widely used models are the gamma and Wiener degradation models, in which the gamma or normal distributions are assumed as the distribution of degradation increments, respectively. Using the computer simulation technique, we have analysed the accuracy of the reliability estimates, obtained for considered models. The number of increments can be enlarged by increasing the sample size (the number of tested items) or by increasing the frequency of measuring degradation. It has been shown, that the sample size has a greater influence on the accuracy of the reliability estimates in comparison with the measuring frequency. Moreover, it has been shown that another important factor, influencing the accuracy of reliability estimation, is the duration of observing degradation process.

  19. Probabilistic durability assessment of concrete structures in marine environments: Reliability and sensitivity analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Bo; Ning, Chao-lie; Li, Bing

    2017-03-01

    A probabilistic framework for durability assessment of concrete structures in marine environments was proposed in terms of reliability and sensitivity analysis, which takes into account the uncertainties under the environmental, material, structural and executional conditions. A time-dependent probabilistic model of chloride ingress was established first to consider the variations in various governing parameters, such as the chloride concentration, chloride diffusion coefficient, and age factor. Then the Nataf transformation was adopted to transform the non-normal random variables from the original physical space into the independent standard Normal space. After that the durability limit state function and its gradient vector with respect to the original physical parameters were derived analytically, based on which the first-order reliability method was adopted to analyze the time-dependent reliability and parametric sensitivity of concrete structures in marine environments. The accuracy of the proposed method was verified by comparing with the second-order reliability method and the Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, the influences of environmental conditions, material properties, structural parameters and execution conditions on the time-dependent reliability of concrete structures in marine environments were also investigated. The proposed probabilistic framework can be implemented in the decision-making algorithm for the maintenance and repair of deteriorating concrete structures in marine environments.

  20. Efficient Approximate Method of Global Reliability Analysis for Offshore Platforms in the Ice Zone

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Ice load is the dominative load in the design of offshore platforms in the ice zone, and the extreme ice load is the key factor that affects the safety of platforms. The present paper studies the statistical properties of the global resistance and the extreme responses of the jacket platforms in Bohai Bay, considering the randomness of ice load, dead load, steel elastic modulus, yield strength and structural member dimensions. Then, based on the above results, an efficient approximate method of the global reliability analysis for the offshore platforms is proposed, which converts the implicit nonlinear performance function in the conventional reliability analysis to linear explicit one. Finally, numerical examples of JZ20-2 MSW, JZ20-2NW and JZ20-2 MUQ offshore jacket platforms in the Bohai Bay demonstrate the satisfying efficiency, accuracy and applicability of the proposed method.

  1. Reliability-Based Calibration of Partial Safety Factors for Wind Turbine Blades

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toft, Henrik Stensgaard; Branner, Kim; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2011-01-01

    The reliability of a wind turbine blade can be estimated using a response surface technique, the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) and Monte Carlo simulation. The response surface is here estimated based on nonlinear finite element analysis by which nonlinear failure modes due to e.g. buckling...... of the unidirectional laminas. For this failure mode the reliability is estimated along the centreline of the main spar cap. The results show significant variations in the reliability along the blade length....... can be taken into account. Stochastic models for the material properties and the load-effect are formulated in order to take physical, model and statistical uncertainties into account. The blade fails due to buckling of the main spar cap which results in high stresses in the transverse direction...

  2. Reliability-Based Calibration of Partial Safety Factors for Wind Turbine Blades

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toft, Henrik Stensgaard; Branner, Kim; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2011-01-01

    The reliability of a wind turbine blade can be estimated using a response surface technique, the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) and Monte Carlo simulation. The response surface is here estimated based on nonlinear finite element analysis by which nonlinear failure modes due to e.g. buckling...... can be taken into account. Stochastic models for the material properties and the load-effect are formulated in order to take physical, model and statistical uncertainties into account. The blade fails due to buckling of the main spar cap which results in high stresses in the transverse direction...... of the unidirectional laminas. For this failure mode the reliability is estimated along the centreline of the main spar cap. The results show significant variations in the reliability along the blade length....

  3. Reliability-Based Calibration of Partial Safety Factors for Wind Turbine Blades

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toft, Henrik Stensgaard; Branner, Kim; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard;

    2011-01-01

    The reliability of a wind turbine blade can be estimated using a response surface technique, the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) and Monte Carlo simulation. The response surface is here estimated based on nonlinear finite element analysis by which nonlinear failure modes due to e.g. buckling...... of the unidirectional laminas. For this failure mode the reliability is estimated along the centreline of the main spar cap. The results show significant variations in the reliability along the blade length....... can be taken into account. Stochastic models for the material properties and the load-effect are formulated in order to take physical, model and statistical uncertainties into account. The blade fails due to buckling of the main spar cap which results in high stresses in the transverse direction...

  4. Reliability and factor validity of a Farsi version of The Positive and Negative Perfectionism Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Besharat, Mohammad Ali

    2009-08-01

    This study investigated reliability and factor validity of a Farsi version of the Positive and Negative Perfectionism Scale in 606 undergraduate students (257 men, 349 women) from the University of Tehran. All participants were asked to complete the scale, along with the General Health Questionnaire (Goldberg, 1972) and the Coopersmith Self-Esteem Inventory (Coopersmith, 1967). Findings indicated good internal consistency, test-retest reliability, and construct validity of the two-factor structure of the Farsi version of the Positive and Negative Perfectionism Scale. These factors were similar to the factors found in previous studies and were accordingly labeled Positive Perfectionism and Negative Perfectionism. The results provide evidence for applicability of the scale and its cross-cultural validity.

  5. Reliability analysis of stochastic structural system considering static strength, stiffness and fatigue

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    AN WeiGuang; ZHAO WeiTao; AN Hai

    2007-01-01

    Multi-failures are possible to appear in the process of using the structural system,such as dead load failure, fatigue failure and stiffness failure. The expression of residual resistance is given based on the impact of random crack propagation induced by the fatigue load on the critical limit stress and section modulus in this paper. The failure modes of every element of the structural system are analyzed under dead and fatigue loads, and the influence of the correlation of failure modes on reliability of the element is considered. Failure mechanism and the correlation of failure modes under dead and fatigue loads are discussed, and the method of reliability analysis considering static strength, fatigue and stiffness is given. A numerical example is analyzed, which indicates that the failure probability is different for different use life and the influence of dead and fatigue loads on reliability of the structural system is different as well. This method of reliability analysis, in the paper, is better than the method only considering a single factor (or static strength, or fatigue, or stiffness, etc.) in the case of practical engineering.

  6. Reliability-Based Load and Resistance Factors Design for Offshore Jacket Platforms in the Bohai Bay: Calibration on Design Factors

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JIN Wei-liang; HU Qi-zhong; SHEN Zhao-wei; SHI Zhong-min

    2009-01-01

    For the fulfillment of the probability-based structural design for the offshore jacket platforms in the Bohai Bay, the design factors of loads, resistance and load combinations are much necessary to be calibrated according to the proposed target reliability index. Firstly, the limit states function for the offshore jacket platforms is introduced. Then, four ap-proaches to calibrate the factors of load and resistance are presented and compared. Afterwards, the methods to calibrate the load combination factors are developed. Finally, the factors of load, resistance and load combination for the offshore jacket platforms in the Bohai Bay are calibrated and the corresponding design formulae are recommended. The results are proved to be rational in practice, and also illustrate that the proposed target reliability index for offshore jacket platforms in the Bohai Bay is also appropriate.

  7. Failure Analysis towards Reliable Performance of Aero-Engines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Jayakumar

    1999-10-01

    Full Text Available Aero-engines are critical components whose reliable performance decides the primary safety of anaircrafthelicopter. This is met by rigorous maintenance schedule with periodic inspection/nondestructive testingof various engine components. In spite of these measures, failure of areo-engines do occur rather frequentlyin comparison to failure of other components. Systematic failure analysis helps one to identify root causeof the failure, thus enabling remedial measures to prevent recurrence of such failures. Turbine blades madeof nickel or cobalt-based alloys are used in aero-engines. These blades are subjected to complex loadingconditions at elevated temperatures. The main causes of failure of blades are attributed to creep, thermalfatigue and hot corrosion. Premature failure of blades in the combustion zone was reported in one of theaero-engines. The engine had both the compressor and the free-turbine in a common shaft. Detailedfailure analysis revealed the presence of creep voids in the blades that failed. Failure of turbine bladeswas also detected in another aero-engine operating in a coastal environment. In this failure, the protectivecoating on the blades was cracked at many locations. Grain boundary spikes were observed on these locations.The primary cause of this failure was the hot corrosion followed by creep damage

  8. Fuzzy Reliability Analysis of the Shaft of a Steam Turbine

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    Field surveying shows that the failure of the steam turbine's coupling is due to fatigue that is caused by compound stress. Fuzzy mathematics was applied to get the membership function of the fatigue strength rule. A formula of fuzzy reliability of the coupling was derived and a theory of coupling's fuzzy reliability is set up. The calculating method of the fuzzy reliability is explained by an illustrative example.

  9. Classifying Open-Ended Reports: Factors Affecting the Reliability of Occupation Codes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Conrad Frederick G.

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available A source of survey processing error that has received insufficient study to date is the misclassification of open-ended responses. We report on efforts to understand the misclassification of open occupation descriptions in the Current Population Survey (CPS. We analyzed double-coded CPS descriptions to identify which features vary with intercoder reliability. One factor strongly related to reliability was the length of the occupation description: longer descriptions were less reliably coded than shorter ones. This effect was stronger for particular occupation terms. We then carried out an experiment to examine the joint effects of description length and classification “difficulty” of particular occupation terms. For easy occupation terms longer descriptions were less reliably coded, but for difficult occupation terms longer descriptions were slightly more reliably coded than short descriptions. Finally, we observed as coders provided verbal reports on their decision making. One practice, evident in coders’ verbal reports, is their use of informal coding rules based on superficial features of the description. Such rules are likely to promote reliability, though not necessarily validity, of coding. To the extent that coders use informal rules for long descriptions involving difficult terms, this could help explain the observed relationship between description length and difficulty of coding particular terms.

  10. STUDY OF FACTORS AFFECTING PROFESSIONAL RELIABILITY SPECIALISTS OF SEARCH-AND-RESCUE SERVICES

    OpenAIRE

    Лещенко Геннадій Анатолійович

    2015-01-01

    The article deals with the issues of the professional activity of future specialists of aviation emergency service and safety. It’s being proved that the subject’s ability to resist the negative factors of professional activity and to perform effectively the professional functions characterize the resistance of the action, provided by the professional reliability. The factors that positively influence the quality of the specialist’s functioning are defined.

  11. Reliability of videotaped observational gait analysis in patients with orthopedic impairments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brunnekreef, J.J.; Uden, C. van; Moorsel, S. van; Kooloos, J.G.M.

    2005-01-01

    BACKGROUND: In clinical practice, visual gait observation is often used to determine gait disorders and to evaluate treatment. Several reliability studies on observational gait analysis have been described in the literature and generally showed moderate reliability. However, patients with orthopedic

  12. Wind energy Computerized Maintenance Management System (CMMS) : data collection recommendations for reliability analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peters, Valerie A.; Ogilvie, Alistair; Veers, Paul S.

    2009-09-01

    This report addresses the general data requirements for reliability analysis of fielded wind turbines and other wind plant equipment. The report provides a list of the data needed to support reliability and availability analysis, and gives specific recommendations for a Computerized Maintenance Management System (CMMS) to support automated analysis. This data collection recommendations report was written by Sandia National Laboratories to address the general data requirements for reliability analysis of fielded wind turbines. This report is intended to help the reader develop a basic understanding of what data are needed from a Computerized Maintenance Management System (CMMS) and other data systems, for reliability analysis. The report provides: (1) a list of the data needed to support reliability and availability analysis; and (2) specific recommendations for a CMMS to support automated analysis. Though written for reliability analysis of wind turbines, much of the information is applicable to a wider variety of equipment and a wider variety of analysis and reporting needs.

  13. Advanced multiple response surface method of sensitivity analysis for turbine blisk reliability with multi-physics coupling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Chunyi

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available To reasonably implement the reliability analysis and describe the significance of influencing parameters for the multi-failure modes of turbine blisk, advanced multiple response surface method (AMRSM was proposed for multi-failure mode sensitivity analysis for reliability. The mathematical model of AMRSM was established and the basic principle of multi-failure mode sensitivity analysis for reliability with AMRSM was given. The important parameters of turbine blisk failures are obtained by the multi-failure mode sensitivity analysis of turbine blisk. Through the reliability sensitivity analyses of multiple failure modes (deformation, stress and strain with the proposed method considering fluid–thermal–solid interaction, it is shown that the comprehensive reliability of turbine blisk is 0.9931 when the allowable deformation, stress and strain are 3.7 × 10−3 m, 1.0023 × 109 Pa and 1.05 × 10−2 m/m, respectively; the main impact factors of turbine blisk failure are gas velocity, gas temperature and rotational speed. As demonstrated in the comparison of methods (Monte Carlo (MC method, traditional response surface method (RSM, multiple response surface method (MRSM and AMRSM, the proposed AMRSM improves computational efficiency with acceptable computational accuracy. The efforts of this study provide the AMRSM with high precision and efficiency for multi-failure mode reliability analysis, and offer a useful insight for the reliability optimization design of multi-failure mode structure.

  14. Advanced multiple response surface method of sensitivity analysis for turbine blisk reliability with multi-physics coupling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhang Chunyi; Song Lukai; Fei Chengwei; Lu Cheng; Xie Yongmei

    2016-01-01

    To reasonably implement the reliability analysis and describe the significance of influenc-ing parameters for the multi-failure modes of turbine blisk, advanced multiple response surface method (AMRSM) was proposed for multi-failure mode sensitivity analysis for reliability. The mathematical model of AMRSM was established and the basic principle of multi-failure mode sen-sitivity analysis for reliability with AMRSM was given. The important parameters of turbine blisk failures are obtained by the multi-failure mode sensitivity analysis of turbine blisk. Through the reli-ability sensitivity analyses of multiple failure modes (deformation, stress and strain) with the pro-posed method considering fluid–thermal–solid interaction, it is shown that the comprehensive reliability of turbine blisk is 0.9931 when the allowable deformation, stress and strain are 3.7 × 10-3 m, 1.0023 × 109 Pa and 1.05 × 10-2 m/m, respectively; the main impact factors of tur-bine blisk failure are gas velocity, gas temperature and rotational speed. As demonstrated in the comparison of methods (Monte Carlo (MC) method, traditional response surface method (RSM), multiple response surface method (MRSM) and AMRSM), the proposed AMRSM improves computational efficiency with acceptable computational accuracy. The efforts of this study provide the AMRSM with high precision and efficiency for multi-failure mode reliability analysis, and offer a useful insight for the reliability optimization design of multi-failure mode structure.

  15. Reliable Classification of Geologic Surfaces Using Texture Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foil, G.; Howarth, D.; Abbey, W. J.; Bekker, D. L.; Castano, R.; Thompson, D. R.; Wagstaff, K.

    2012-12-01

    Communication delays and bandwidth constraints are major obstacles for remote exploration spacecraft. Due to such restrictions, spacecraft could make use of onboard science data analysis to maximize scientific gain, through capabilities such as the generation of bandwidth-efficient representative maps of scenes, autonomous instrument targeting to exploit targets of opportunity between communications, and downlink prioritization to ensure fast delivery of tactically-important data. Of particular importance to remote exploration is the precision of such methods and their ability to reliably reproduce consistent results in novel environments. Spacecraft resources are highly oversubscribed, so any onboard data analysis must provide a high degree of confidence in its assessment. The TextureCam project is constructing a "smart camera" that can analyze surface images to autonomously identify scientifically interesting targets and direct narrow field-of-view instruments. The TextureCam instrument incorporates onboard scene interpretation and mapping to assist these autonomous science activities. Computer vision algorithms map scenes such as those encountered during rover traverses. The approach, based on a machine learning strategy, trains a statistical model to recognize different geologic surface types and then classifies every pixel in a new scene according to these categories. We describe three methods for increasing the precision of the TextureCam instrument. The first uses ancillary data to segment challenging scenes into smaller regions having homogeneous properties. These subproblems are individually easier to solve, preventing uncertainty in one region from contaminating those that can be confidently classified. The second involves a Bayesian approach that maximizes the likelihood of correct classifications by abstaining from ambiguous ones. We evaluate these two techniques on a set of images acquired during field expeditions in the Mojave Desert. Finally, the

  16. Effectiveness and reliability analysis of emergency measures for flood prevention

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lendering, K.T.; Jonkman, S.N.; Kok, M.

    2014-01-01

    During flood events emergency measures are used to prevent breaches in flood defences. However, there is still limited insight in their reliability and effectiveness. The objective of this paper is to develop a method to determine the reliability and effectiveness of emergency measures for flood

  17. Effectiveness and reliability analysis of emergency measures for flood prevention

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lendering, K.T.; Jonkman, S.N.; Kok, M.

    2014-01-01

    During flood events emergency measures are used to prevent breaches in flood defences. However, there is still limited insight in their reliability and effectiveness. The objective of this paper is to develop a method to determine the reliability and effectiveness of emergency measures for flood def

  18. Modeling the City Distribution System Reliability with Bayesian Networks to Identify Influence Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hao Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Under the increasingly uncertain economic environment, the research on the reliability of urban distribution system has great practical significance for the integration of logistics and supply chain resources. This paper summarizes the factors that affect the city logistics distribution system. Starting from the research of factors that influence the reliability of city distribution system, further construction of city distribution system reliability influence model is built based on Bayesian networks. The complex problem is simplified by using the sub-Bayesian network, and an example is analyzed. In the calculation process, we combined the traditional Bayesian algorithm and the Expectation Maximization (EM algorithm, which made the Bayesian model able to lay a more accurate foundation. The results show that the Bayesian network can accurately reflect the dynamic relationship among the factors affecting the reliability of urban distribution system. Moreover, by changing the prior probability of the node of the cause, the correlation degree between the variables that affect the successful distribution can be calculated. The results have significant practical significance on improving the quality of distribution, the level of distribution, and the efficiency of enterprises.

  19. Procedure for conducting a human-reliability analysis for nuclear power plants. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bell, B.J.; Swain, A.D.

    1983-05-01

    This document describes in detail a procedure to be followed in conducting a human reliability analysis as part of a probabilistic risk assessment when such an analysis is performed according to the methods described in NUREG/CR-1278, Handbook for Human Reliability Analysis with Emphasis on Nuclear Power Plant Applications. An overview of the procedure describing the major elements of a human reliability analysis is presented along with a detailed description of each element and an example of an actual analysis. An appendix consists of some sample human reliability analysis problems for further study.

  20. Wind turbine reliability : a database and analysis approach.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Linsday, James (ARES Corporation); Briand, Daniel; Hill, Roger Ray; Stinebaugh, Jennifer A.; Benjamin, Allan S. (ARES Corporation)

    2008-02-01

    The US wind Industry has experienced remarkable growth since the turn of the century. At the same time, the physical size and electrical generation capabilities of wind turbines has also experienced remarkable growth. As the market continues to expand, and as wind generation continues to gain a significant share of the generation portfolio, the reliability of wind turbine technology becomes increasingly important. This report addresses how operations and maintenance costs are related to unreliability - that is the failures experienced by systems and components. Reliability tools are demonstrated, data needed to understand and catalog failure events is described, and practical wind turbine reliability models are illustrated, including preliminary results. This report also presents a continuing process of how to proceed with controlling industry requirements, needs, and expectations related to Reliability, Availability, Maintainability, and Safety. A simply stated goal of this process is to better understand and to improve the operable reliability of wind turbine installations.

  1. Factor Validity and Reliability for the Aberrant Behavior Checklist-Community in a Japanese Population with Mental Retardation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ono, Yoshiro

    1996-01-01

    Evaluation of the factor validity and reliability of the Aberrant Behavior Checklist (Japanese version) with 322 subjects (mean age 30) with moderate to profound mental retardation found most items loading on the same factors as in the original factor solution, high coefficient alphas across 5 subscales, high test-retest reliability, and…

  2. Advanced response surface method for mechanical reliability analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    L(U) Zhen-zhou; ZHAO Jie; YUE Zhu-feng

    2007-01-01

    Based on the classical response surface method (RSM), a novel RSM using improved experimental points (EPs) is presented for reliability analysis. Two novel points are included in the presented method. One is the use of linear interpolation, from which the total EPs for determining the RS are selected to be closer to the actual failure surface;the other is the application of sequential linear interpolation to control the distance between the surrounding EPs and the center EP, by which the presented method can ensure that the RS fits the actual failure surface in the region of maximum likelihood as the center EPs converge to the actual most probable point (MPP). Since the fitting precision of the RS to the actual failure surface in the vicinity of the MPP, which has significant contribution to the probability of the failure surface being exceeded, is increased by the presented method, the precision of the failure probability calculated by RS is increased as well. Numerical examples illustrate the accuracy and efficiency of the presented method.

  3. Tackling reliability and construct validity: the systematic development of a qualitative protocol for skill and incident analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savage, Trevor Nicholas; McIntosh, Andrew Stuart

    2017-03-01

    It is important to understand factors contributing to and directly causing sports injuries to improve the effectiveness and safety of sports skills. The characteristics of injury events must be evaluated and described meaningfully and reliably. However, many complex skills cannot be effectively investigated quantitatively because of ethical, technological and validity considerations. Increasingly, qualitative methods are being used to investigate human movement for research purposes, but there are concerns about reliability and measurement bias of such methods. Using the tackle in Rugby union as an example, we outline a systematic approach for developing a skill analysis protocol with a focus on improving objectivity, validity and reliability. Characteristics for analysis were selected using qualitative analysis and biomechanical theoretical models and epidemiological and coaching literature. An expert panel comprising subject matter experts provided feedback and the inter-rater reliability of the protocol was assessed using ten trained raters. The inter-rater reliability results were reviewed by the expert panel and the protocol was revised and assessed in a second inter-rater reliability study. Mean agreement in the second study improved and was comparable (52-90% agreement and ICC between 0.6 and 0.9) with other studies that have reported inter-rater reliability of qualitative analysis of human movement.

  4. Improving Predictions with Reliable Extrapolation Schemes and Better Understanding of Factorization

    Science.gov (United States)

    More, Sushant N.

    New insights into the inter-nucleon interactions, developments in many-body technology, and the surge in computational capabilities has led to phenomenal progress in low-energy nuclear physics in the past few years. Nonetheless, many calculations still lack a robust uncertainty quantification which is essential for making reliable predictions. In this work we investigate two distinct sources of uncertainty and develop ways to account for them. Harmonic oscillator basis expansions are widely used in ab-initio nuclear structure calculations. Finite computational resources usually require that the basis be truncated before observables are fully converged, necessitating reliable extrapolation schemes. It has been demonstrated recently that errors introduced from basis truncation can be taken into account by focusing on the infrared and ultraviolet cutoffs induced by a truncated basis. We show that a finite oscillator basis effectively imposes a hard-wall boundary condition in coordinate space. We accurately determine the position of the hard-wall as a function of oscillator space parameters, derive infrared extrapolation formulas for the energy and other observables, and discuss the extension of this approach to higher angular momentum and to other localized bases. We exploit the duality of the harmonic oscillator to account for the errors introduced by a finite ultraviolet cutoff. Nucleon knockout reactions have been widely used to study and understand nuclear properties. Such an analysis implicitly assumes that the effects of the probe can be separated from the physics of the target nucleus. This factorization between nuclear structure and reaction components depends on the renormalization scale and scheme, and has not been well understood. But it is potentially critical for interpreting experiments and for extracting process-independent nuclear properties. We use a class of unitary transformations called the similarity renormalization group (SRG) transformations to

  5. Extending Failure Modes and Effects Analysis Approach for Reliability Analysis at the Software Architecture Design Level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sozer, Hasan; Tekinerdogan, Bedir; Aksit, Mehmet; Lemos, de Rogerio; Gacek, Cristina

    2007-01-01

    Several reliability engineering approaches have been proposed to identify and recover from failures. A well-known and mature approach is the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) method that is usually utilized together with Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) to analyze and diagnose the causes of failures.

  6. Using the De Jong Gierveld Loneliness Scale With Early Adolescents: Factor Structure, Reliability, Stability, and External Validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grygiel, Paweł; Humenny, Grzegorz; Rębisz, Sławomir

    2016-12-08

    The present investigation is the first examination of the factor structures, reliability, external validity, longitudinal invariance, and stability of the De Jong Gierveld Loneliness Scale (DJGLS), as used with early adolescents. It is based on a two-wave, large, representative sample of Polish primary school pupils. The results demonstrate that the model most reflective of the factor structure of the DJGLS is the bifactor model, which assumes the occurrence of one, highly reliable, general factor (overall sense of loneliness) and two, relatively irrelevant, subfactors. Essential unidimensionality (the general factor accounting for three fourth of the common variance) suggest that the interpretation of the subfactors over and above the general factor is inappropriate. The longitudinal confirmatory factor analysis indicated that the bifactor structure of the DJGLS is invariant over time. Correlations with self-rated loneliness, sociometric acceptance/rejection, social self-efficacy, identification with class group, family structure, and gender provide support for the validity of the DJGLS. This implies that it could be used as a measure of loneliness in adolescence, which does not involve references to the school context, making it possible to conduct studies that go beyond school period and compare the intensity of the feeling of loneliness in that group with other age groups.

  7. Reliability and Security Analysis on Two-Cell Dynamic Redundant System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongsheng Su

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Based on analysis on reliability and security on three types of two-cell dynamic redundant systems which has been widely applied in modern railway signal system, whose isomorphic Markov model was established in this paper. During modeling several important factors, including common-cause failure, coverage of diagnostic systems, online maintainability, and periodic inspection maintenance, and as well as many failure modes, were considered, which made the established model more credible. Through analysis and calculation on reliability and security indexes of the three types of two-module dynamic redundant structures, the paper acquires a significant conclusion, i.e., the safety and reliability of the kind of structure possesses an upper limit, and can not be inordinately improved through the hardware and software comparison methods under the failure and repairing rate fixed. Finally, the paper performs the simulation investigations, and compares the calculation results of the three redundant systems, and analysis each advantages and disadvantages, and gives out each application scope, which provides a theoretical technical support for the railway signal equipments selection.

  8. Advanced Reactor Passive System Reliability Demonstration Analysis for an External Event

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bucknor, Matthew D.; Grabaskas, David; Brunett, Acacia J.; Grelle, Austin

    2016-01-01

    Many advanced reactor designs rely on passive systems to fulfill safety functions during accident sequences. These systems depend heavily on boundary conditions to induce a motive force, meaning the system can fail to operate as intended due to deviations in boundary conditions, rather than as the result of physical failures. Furthermore, passive systems may operate in intermediate or degraded modes. These factors make passive system operation difficult to characterize within a traditional probabilistic framework that only recognizes discrete operating modes and does not allow for the explicit consideration of time-dependent boundary conditions. Argonne National Laboratory has been examining various methodologies for assessing passive system reliability within a probabilistic risk assessment for a station blackout event at an advanced small modular reactor. This paper provides an overview of a passive system reliability demonstration analysis for an external event. Centering on an earthquake with the possibility of site flooding, the analysis focuses on the behavior of the passive reactor cavity cooling system following potential physical damage and system flooding. The assessment approach seeks to combine mechanistic and simulation-based methods to leverage the benefits of the simulation-based approach without the need to substantially deviate from conventional probabilistic risk assessment techniques. While this study is presented as only an example analysis, the results appear to demonstrate a high level of reliability for the reactor cavity cooling system (and the reactor system in general) to the postulated transient event.

  9. Advanced Reactor Passive System Reliability Demonstration Analysis for an External Event

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew Bucknor

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Many advanced reactor designs rely on passive systems to fulfill safety functions during accident sequences. These systems depend heavily on boundary conditions to induce a motive force, meaning the system can fail to operate as intended because of deviations in boundary conditions, rather than as the result of physical failures. Furthermore, passive systems may operate in intermediate or degraded modes. These factors make passive system operation difficult to characterize within a traditional probabilistic framework that only recognizes discrete operating modes and does not allow for the explicit consideration of time-dependent boundary conditions. Argonne National Laboratory has been examining various methodologies for assessing passive system reliability within a probabilistic risk assessment for a station blackout event at an advanced small modular reactor. This paper provides an overview of a passive system reliability demonstration analysis for an external event. Considering an earthquake with the possibility of site flooding, the analysis focuses on the behavior of the passive Reactor Cavity Cooling System following potential physical damage and system flooding. The assessment approach seeks to combine mechanistic and simulation-based methods to leverage the benefits of the simulation-based approach without the need to substantially deviate from conventional probabilistic risk assessment techniques. Although this study is presented as only an example analysis, the results appear to demonstrate a high level of reliability of the Reactor Cavity Cooling System (and the reactor system in general for the postulated transient event.

  10. Advanced reactor passive system reliability demonstration analysis for an external event

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bucknor, Matthew; Grabaskas, David; Brunett, Acacia J.; Grelle, Austin [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne (United States)

    2017-03-15

    Many advanced reactor designs rely on passive systems to fulfill safety functions during accident sequences. These systems depend heavily on boundary conditions to induce a motive force, meaning the system can fail to operate as intended because of deviations in boundary conditions, rather than as the result of physical failures. Furthermore, passive systems may operate in intermediate or degraded modes. These factors make passive system operation difficult to characterize within a traditional probabilistic framework that only recognizes discrete operating modes and does not allow for the explicit consideration of time-dependent boundary conditions. Argonne National Laboratory has been examining various methodologies for assessing passive system reliability within a probabilistic risk assessment for a station blackout event at an advanced small modular reactor. This paper provides an overview of a passive system reliability demonstration analysis for an external event. Considering an earthquake with the possibility of site flooding, the analysis focuses on the behavior of the passive Reactor Cavity Cooling System following potential physical damage and system flooding. The assessment approach seeks to combine mechanistic and simulation-based methods to leverage the benefits of the simulation-based approach without the need to substantially deviate from conventional probabilistic risk assessment techniques. Although this study is presented as only an example analysis, the results appear to demonstrate a high level of reliability of the Reactor Cavity Cooling System (and the reactor system in general) for the postulated transient event.

  11. System Reliability Analysis of Redundant Condition Monitoring Systems

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YI Pengxing; HU Youming; YANG Shuzi; WU Bo; CUI Feng

    2006-01-01

    The development and application of new reliability models and methods are presented to analyze the system reliability of complex condition monitoring systems. The methods include a method analyzing failure modes of a type of redundant condition monitoring systems (RCMS) by invoking failure tree model, Markov modeling techniques for analyzing system reliability of RCMS, and methods for estimating Markov model parameters. Furthermore, a computing case is investigated and many conclusions upon this case are summarized. Results show that the method proposed here is practical and valuable for designing condition monitoring systems and their maintenance.

  12. Simulation and Non-Simulation Based Human Reliability Analysis Approaches

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boring, Ronald Laurids [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Shirley, Rachel Elizabeth [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Joe, Jeffrey Clark [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Mandelli, Diego [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2014-12-01

    Part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway develops approaches to estimating and managing safety margins. RISMC simulations pair deterministic plant physics models with probabilistic risk models. As human interactions are an essential element of plant risk, it is necessary to integrate human actions into the RISMC risk model. In this report, we review simulation-based and non-simulation-based human reliability assessment (HRA) methods. Chapter 2 surveys non-simulation-based HRA methods. Conventional HRA methods target static Probabilistic Risk Assessments for Level 1 events. These methods would require significant modification for use in dynamic simulation of Level 2 and Level 3 events. Chapter 3 is a review of human performance models. A variety of methods and models simulate dynamic human performance; however, most of these human performance models were developed outside the risk domain and have not been used for HRA. The exception is the ADS-IDAC model, which can be thought of as a virtual operator program. This model is resource-intensive but provides a detailed model of every operator action in a given scenario, along with models of numerous factors that can influence operator performance. Finally, Chapter 4 reviews the treatment of timing of operator actions in HRA methods. This chapter is an example of one of the critical gaps between existing HRA methods and the needs of dynamic HRA. This report summarizes the foundational information needed to develop a feasible approach to modeling human interactions in the RISMC simulations.

  13. Handbook of human-reliability analysis with emphasis on nuclear power plant applications. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Swain, A D; Guttmann, H E

    1983-08-01

    The primary purpose of the Handbook is to present methods, models, and estimated human error probabilities (HEPs) to enable qualified analysts to make quantitative or qualitative assessments of occurrences of human errors in nuclear power plants (NPPs) that affect the availability or operational reliability of engineered safety features and components. The Handbook is intended to provide much of the modeling and information necessary for the performance of human reliability analysis (HRA) as a part of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of NPPs. Although not a design guide, a second purpose of the Handbook is to enable the user to recognize error-likely equipment design, plant policies and practices, written procedures, and other human factors problems so that improvements can be considered. The Handbook provides the methodology to identify and quantify the potential for human error in NPP tasks.

  14. Probabilistic Structural Analysis and Reliability Using NESSUS With Implemented Material Strength Degradation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bast, Callie C.; Jurena, Mark T.; Godines, Cody R.; Chamis, Christos C. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    This project included both research and education objectives. The goal of this project was to advance innovative research and education objectives in theoretical and computational probabilistic structural analysis, reliability, and life prediction for improved reliability and safety of structural components of aerospace and aircraft propulsion systems. Research and education partners included Glenn Research Center (GRC) and Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) along with the University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA). SwRI enhanced the NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) code and provided consulting support for NESSUS-related activities at UTSA. NASA funding supported three undergraduate students, two graduate students, a summer course instructor and the Principal Investigator. Matching funds from UTSA provided for the purchase of additional equipment for the enhancement of the Advanced Interactive Computational SGI Lab established during the first year of this Partnership Award to conduct the probabilistic finite element summer courses. The research portion of this report presents the cumulation of work performed through the use of the probabilistic finite element program, NESSUS, Numerical Evaluation and Structures Under Stress, and an embedded Material Strength Degradation (MSD) model. Probabilistic structural analysis provided for quantification of uncertainties associated with the design, thus enabling increased system performance and reliability. The structure examined was a Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) fuel turbopump blade. The blade material analyzed was Inconel 718, since the MSD model was previously calibrated for this material. Reliability analysis encompassing the effects of high temperature and high cycle fatigue, yielded a reliability value of 0.99978 using a fully correlated random field for the blade thickness. The reliability did not change significantly for a change in distribution type except for a change in

  15. Application of Reliability Analysis for Optimal Design of Monolithic Vertical Wall Breakwaters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Burcharth, H. F.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Christiani, E.

    1995-01-01

    Reliability analysis and reliability-based design of monolithic vertical wall breakwaters are considered. Probabilistic models of some of the most important failure modes are described. The failures are sliding and slip surface failure of a rubble mound and a clay foundation. Relevant design...... variables are identified and a reliability-based design optimization procedure is formulated. Results from an illustrative example are given....

  16. Reliability analysis of wind turbines exposed to dynamic loads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2014-01-01

    . Therefore the turbine components should be designed to have sufficient reliability with respect to both extreme and fatigue loads also not be too costly (and safe). This paper presents models for uncertainty modeling and reliability assessment of especially the structural components such as tower, blades...... the reliability of the structural components. Illustrative examples are presented considering uncertainty modeling and reliability assessment for structural wind turbine components exposed to extreme loads and fatigue, respectively.......Wind turbines are exposed to highly dynamic loads that cause fatigue and extreme load effects which are subject to significant uncertainties. Further, reduction of cost of energy for wind turbines are very important in order to make wind energy competitive compared to other energy sources...

  17. Operation of Reliability Analysis Center (FY85-87)

    Science.gov (United States)

    1988-08-01

    environmental conditions at the time of the reported failure as well as the exact nature of the failure. 4 The diskette format (FMDR-21A) contains...based upon the reliability and maintainability standards and tasks delineated in NAC R&M-STD-ROO010 (Reliability Program Requirements Seleccion ). These...characteristics, environmental conditions at the time of the reported failure, and the exact nature of the failure, which has been categorized as follows

  18. reliability reliability

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    eobe

    The design variables for the design of the sla. The design ... The presence of uncertainty in the analysis and de of engineering .... however, for certain complex elements, the methods ..... Standard BS EN 1990, CEN, European Committee for.

  19. Reliability Analysis of a Cold Standby System with Imperfect Repair and under Poisson Shocks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yutian Chen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers the reliability analysis of a two-component cold standby system with a repairman who may have vacation. The system may fail due to intrinsic factors like aging or deteriorating, or external factors such as Poisson shocks. The arrival time of the shocks follows a Poisson process with the intensity λ>0. Whenever the magnitude of a shock is larger than the prespecified threshold of the operating component, the operating component will fail. The paper assumes that the intrinsic lifetime and the repair time on the component are an extended Poisson process, the magnitude of the shock and the threshold of the operating component are nonnegative random variables, and the vacation time of the repairman obeys the general continuous probability distribution. By using the vector Markov process theory, the supplementary variable method, Laplace transform, and Tauberian theory, the paper derives a number of reliability indices: system availability, system reliability, the rate of occurrence of the system failure, and the mean time to the first failure of the system. Finally, a numerical example is given to validate the derived indices.

  20. Fatigue reliability and calibration of fatigue design factors of wave energy converters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ambühl, Simon; Ferri, Francesco; Kofoed, Jens Peter

    2015-01-01

    Target reliability levels, which are chosen dependent on the consequences in case of structural collapse, are used in this paper to calibrate partial safety factors for structural details of wave energy converters (WECs). The consequences in case of structural failure are similar for WECs...... and offshore wind turbines (no fatalities, low environmental pollution). Therefore, it can be assumed that the target reliability levels for WEC applications can be overtaken from offshore wind turbine studies. The partial safety factors cannot be directly overtaken from offshore wind turbines because the load...... is considered in order to extend and maintain a certain target safety level. This paper uses the Wavestar prototype located at Hanstholm (DK) as case study in order to calibrate FDFs for welded and bolted details in steel structures of an offshore bottom-fixed WEC with hydraulic floaters....

  1. Validity and reliability of a questionnaire on knowledge of cardiovascular risk factors for use in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Aurelio Lumertz Saffi

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Using a sample of patients with coronary artery disease, this methodological study aimed to conduct a cross-cultural adaptation and validation of a questionnaire on knowledge of cardiovascular risk factors (Q-FARCS, lifestyle changes, and treatment adherence for use in Brazil. The questionnaire has three scales: general knowledge of risk factors (RFs; specific knowledge of these RFs; and lifestyle changes achieved. Cross-cultural adaptation included translation, synthesis, back-translation, expert committee review, and pretesting. Face and content validity, reliability, and construct validity were measured. Cronbach’s alpha for the total sample (n = 240 was 0.75. Assessment of psychometric properties revealed adequate face and content validity, and the construct revealed seven components. It was concluded that the Brazilian version of Q-FARCS had adequate reliability and validity for the assessment of knowledge of cardiovascular RFs.

  2. RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF THE PRIMARY CYLINDER OF THE 10 MN HYDRAULIC PRESS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhao Jingyi; Zhuoru; Wang Yiqun

    2000-01-01

    According to the demand of high reliability of the primary cylinder of the hydraulic press,the reliability model of the primary cylinder is built after its reliability analysis.The stress of the primary cylinder is analyzed by finite element software-MARC,and the structure reliability of the cylinder based on stress-strength model is predicted,which would provide the reference to the design.

  3. Teachers’ attitude regarding the use of ICT. A factor reliability and validity study

    OpenAIRE

    Juan Pablo HERNÁNDEZ RAMOS; Fernando MARTÍNEZ ABAD; Francisco José GARCÍA-PEÑALVO; María Esperanza HERRERA GARCÍA; Rodríguez-Conde, María José

    2014-01-01

    [EN] Current research examines the need for design and validation of a unifactorial scale to measure attitudes of university teachers with regard to ICT. The main goal of this study is to achieve a simple scale, composed of a single factor contributing a clearly reliable measure with acceptable content and factorial validity. A case study is presented, which has been developed with the teaching staff of the University of Salamanca (Spain). In this case study, an expert content validation was ...

  4. RELIABILITY ANALYSIS FOR AN AERO ENGINE TURBINE DISK UNDER LOW CYCLE FATIGUE CONDITION

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    C.L. Liu; Z.Z. Lü; Y.L. Xu

    2004-01-01

    Reliability analysis methods based on the linear damage accumulation law (LDAL) and load-life interference model are studied in this paper. According to the equal probability rule, the equivalent loads are derived, and the reliability analysis method based on load-life interference model and recurrence formula is constructed. In conjunction with finite element analysis (FEA) program, the reliability of an aero engine turbine disk under low cycle fatigue (LCF) condition has been analyzed. The results show the turbine disk is safety and the above reliability analysis methods are feasible.

  5. Reliability Analysis for the Fatigue Limit State of the ASTRID Offshore Platform

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vrouwenvelder, A.C.W.M.; Gostelie, E.M.

    1986-01-01

    A reliability analysis with respect to fatigue failure was performed for a concrete gravity platform designed for the Troll field. The reliability analysis was incorporated in the practical design-loop to gain more insight into the complex fatigue problem. In the analysis several parameters relating

  6. Reliability analysis of stochastic structural system considering static strength, stiffness and fatigue

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    Multi-failures are possible to appear in the process of using the structural system, such as dead load failure, fatigue failure and stiffness failure. The expression of residual resistance is given based on the impact of random crack propagation in- duced by the fatigue load on the critical limit stress and section modulus in this paper. The failure modes of every element of the structural system are analyzed under dead and fatigue loads, and the influence of the correlation of failure modes on reliability of the element is considered. Failure mechanism and the correlation of failure modes under dead and fatigue loads are discussed, and the method of reli- ability analysis considering static strength, fatigue and stiffness is given. A nu- merical example is analyzed, which indicates that the failure probability is different for different use life and the influence of dead and fatigue loads on reliability of the structural system is different as well. This method of reliability analysis, in the pa- per, is better than the method only considering a single factor (or static strength, or fatigue, or stiffness, etc.) in the case of practical engineering.

  7. Statistics and Analysis on Reliability of HVDC Transmission Systems of SGCC

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xu

    2010-01-01

    Reliability level of HVDC power transmission systems becomes an important factor impacting the entire power grid. The author analyzes the reliability of HVDC power transmission systems owned by SGCC since 2003 in respect of forced outage times, forced energy unavailability, scheduled energy unavailability and energy utilization efficiency. The results show that the reliability level of HVDC power transmission systems owned by SGCC is improving. By analyzing different reliability indices of HVDC power transmission system, the maximum asset benefits of power grid can be achieved through building a scientific and reasonable reliability evaluation system.

  8. Waste Feed Delivery System Phase 1 Preliminary Reliability and Availability and Maintainability Analysis [SEC 1 and 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    CARLSON, A.B.

    1999-11-11

    The document presents updated results of the preliminary reliability, availability, maintainability analysis performed for delivery of waste feed from tanks 241-AZ-101 and 241-AN-105 to British Nuclear Fuels Limited, inc. under the Tank Waste Remediation System Privatization Contract. The operational schedule delay risk is estimated and contributing factors are discussed.

  9. Methods for communication-network reliability analysis - Probabilistic graph reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shooman, Andrew M.; Kershenbaum, Aaron

    The authors have designed and implemented a graph-reduction algorithm for computing the k-terminal reliability of an arbitrary network with possibly unreliable nodes. The two contributions of the present work are a version of the delta-y transformation for k-terminal reliability and an extension of Satyanarayana and Wood's polygon to chain transformations to handle graphs with imperfect vertices. The exact algorithm is faster than or equal to that of Satyanarayana and Wood and the simple algorithm without delta-y and polygon to chain transformations for every problem considered. The exact algorithm runs in linear time on series-parallel graphs and is faster than the above-stated algorithms for huge problems which run in exponential time. The approximate algorithms reduce the computation time for the network reliability problem by two to three orders of magnitude for large problems, while providing reasonably accurate answers in most cases.

  10. Reliability Analysis of Random Vibration Transmission Path Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Zhao

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The vibration transmission path systems are generally composed of the vibration source, the vibration transfer path, and the vibration receiving structure. The transfer path is the medium of the vibration transmission. Moreover, the randomness of transfer path influences the transfer reliability greatly. In this paper, based on the matrix calculus, the generalized second moment technique, and the stochastic finite element theory, the effective approach for the transfer reliability of vibration transfer path systems was provided. The transfer reliability of vibration transfer path system with uncertain path parameters including path mass and path stiffness was analyzed theoretically and computed numerically, and the correlated mathematical expressions were derived. Thus, it provides the theoretical foundation for the dynamic design of vibration systems in practical project, so that most random path parameters can be considered to solve the random problems for vibration transfer path systems, which can avoid the system resonance failure.

  11. Technical information report: Plasma melter operation, reliability, and maintenance analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hendrickson, D.W. [ed.

    1995-03-14

    This document provides a technical report of operability, reliability, and maintenance of a plasma melter for low-level waste vitrification, in support of the Hanford Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Low-Level Waste (LLW) Vitrification Program. A process description is provided that minimizes maintenance and downtime and includes material and energy balances, equipment sizes and arrangement, startup/operation/maintence/shutdown cycle descriptions, and basis for scale-up to a 200 metric ton/day production facility. Operational requirements are provided including utilities, feeds, labor, and maintenance. Equipment reliability estimates and maintenance requirements are provided which includes a list of failure modes, responses, and consequences.

  12. Reliability modeling and analysis of smart power systems

    CERN Document Server

    Karki, Rajesh; Verma, Ajit Kumar

    2014-01-01

    The volume presents the research work in understanding, modeling and quantifying the risks associated with different ways of implementing smart grid technology in power systems in order to plan and operate a modern power system with an acceptable level of reliability. Power systems throughout the world are undergoing significant changes creating new challenges to system planning and operation in order to provide reliable and efficient use of electrical energy. The appropriate use of smart grid technology is an important drive in mitigating these problems and requires considerable research acti

  13. Embedded mechatronic systems 1 analysis of failures, predictive reliability

    CERN Document Server

    El Hami, Abdelkhalak

    2015-01-01

    In operation, mechatronics embedded systems are stressed by loads of different causes: climate (temperature, humidity), vibration, electrical and electromagnetic. These stresses in components which induce failure mechanisms should be identified and modeled for better control. AUDACE is a collaborative project of the cluster Mov'eo that address issues specific to mechatronic reliability embedded systems. AUDACE means analyzing the causes of failure of components of mechatronic systems onboard. The goal of the project is to optimize the design of mechatronic devices by reliability. The projec

  14. The development of the Metacognition Assessment interview: instrument description, factor structure and reliability in a non-clinical sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semerari, Antonio; Cucchi, Michele; Dimaggio, Giancarlo; Cavadini, Daniele; Carcione, Antonino; Battelli, Vittoria; Nicolò, Giuseppe; Pedone, Roberto; Siccardi, Tomaso; D'Angerio, Stefania; Ronchi, Paolo; Maffei, Cesare; Smeraldi, Enrico

    2012-12-30

    Metacognition is a multi-facet psychological construct; deficits in metacognitive abilities are associated to low social functioning, low quality of life, psychopathology, and symptoms. The aim of this study was to describe and develop a valid and reliable interview for assessing metacognition. The semi-structured interview, based on the author's theory model of the metacognition construct, is described. The Metacognition Assessment Interview (MAI) is an adaptation of the Metacognition Assessment Scale (MAS) and evaluates how the subject is interviewed used metacognition during his own real life experiences elicited by the interviewer. A user manual was developed to assist the interview and scoring procedure. Exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis revealed preliminary evidence of a two factor-hierarchical structure, with two lower-order scales, representing the two main theoretical domains of the metacognitive function, "the Self" and "the Other", and one single higher-order scale that we labelled metacognition. Contrary to the authors' prediction the existence of the four distinct dimensions under the two domains was not confirmed. The MAI and its two domains demonstrated acceptable levels of inter-rater reliability and internal consistency. The MAI appears to be a promising instrument for assessing metacognition. Future psychometric validation steps and clinical directions are discussed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Fatigue Reliability and Calibration of Fatigue Design Factors for Offshore Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dominguez, Sergio Marquez; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2012-01-01

    Consequences of failure of offshore wind turbines (OWTs) are in general lower than consequences of failure of, e.g., oil & gas platforms. It is reasonable that lower fatigue design factors can be applied for fatigue design of OWTs when compared to other fixed offshore structures. Calibration...... is discussed and results are presented for calibrated optimal fatigue design factors. Further, the influence of inspections is considered in order to extend and maintain a given target safety level....... of appropriate partial safety factors/Fatigue Design Factors (FDF) for steel substructures for OWTs is the scope of this paper. A reliability-based approach is used and a probabilistic model has been developed, where design and limit state equations are established for fatigue failure. The strength and load...

  16. Factor structure and reliability of the 12-item Sinhala version of General Health Questionnaire

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chrishantha Abeysena

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The General Health Questionnaire (GHQ is widely used to detect common psychiatric disorders. Even though the GHQ 12 has been validated for many countries, psychometric properties in relation to the Sinhala speaking Sri Lankan population lack conclusive evidence. Objective: To determine the factor structure and the reliability of the Sinhala version of GHQ 12. Methods: This was a descriptive study including 385 patients with in the age range of 18 to 75 years, attending the Out Patient Department of Colombo North Teaching Hospital, Ragama, Sri Lanka, between June 2009 to September 2010. Sinhala version of GHQ-12 was completed by the participants. Each item of the GHQ was rated on a four-point scale (0-1-2-3. Factor analyses were performed by applying Generalized Least Squares method using oblimin rotation. The internal consistency was assessed by calculating Cronbach’s α coefficient.Results: Median age of the study population was 32.5 years (IQR= 21years and the median GHQ score was 9 (IQR=7. The GHQ 12 yielded two factor solutions. Factor I (Depression and Anxiety accounted for 88% of the total explained variance and Factor II (Social dysfunction 12%. Forty five percent (45% of the total variance could be explained by the two extracted factors. There was a clear distinction between the items that loaded on the two factors. The correlation coefficient between the factors I and II was 0.65. The Cronbach's alpha of GHQ 12 was 0.88, which indicated satisfactory internal consistency. Conclusions: GHQ 12 displays adequate reliability and validity for use in the Sinhala speaking primary care attendees of Colombo North Teaching Hospital for assessing psychiatric disorders.

  17. Architecture-Based Reliability Analysis of Web Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmani, Cobra Mariam

    2012-01-01

    In a Service Oriented Architecture (SOA), the hierarchical complexity of Web Services (WS) and their interactions with the underlying Application Server (AS) create new challenges in providing a realistic estimate of WS performance and reliability. The current approaches often treat the entire WS environment as a black-box. Thus, the sensitivity…

  18. Windfarm generation assessment for reliability analysis of power systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Negra, N.B.; Holmstrøm, O.; Bak-Jensen, B.;

    2007-01-01

    Due to the fast development of wind generation in the past ten years, increasing interest has been paid to techniques for assessing different aspects of power systems with a large amount of installed wind generation. One of these aspects concerns power system reliability. Windfarm modelling plays...

  19. Fiber Access Networks: Reliability Analysis and Swedish Broadband Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wosinska, Lena; Chen, Jiajia; Larsen, Claus Popp

    Fiber access network architectures such as active optical networks (AONs) and passive optical networks (PONs) have been developed to support the growing bandwidth demand. Whereas particularly Swedish operators prefer AON, this may not be the case for operators in other countries. The choice depends on a combination of technical requirements, practical constraints, business models, and cost. Due to the increasing importance of reliable access to the network services, connection availability is becoming one of the most crucial issues for access networks, which should be reflected in the network owner's architecture decision. In many cases protection against failures is realized by adding backup resources. However, there is a trade off between the cost of protection and the level of service reliability since improving reliability performance by duplication of network resources (and capital expenditures CAPEX) may be too expensive. In this paper we present the evolution of fiber access networks and compare reliability performance in relation to investment and management cost for some representative cases. We consider both standard and novel architectures for deployment in both sparsely and densely populated areas. While some recent works focused on PON protection schemes with reduced CAPEX the current and future effort should be put on minimizing the operational expenditures (OPEX) during the access network lifetime.

  20. Statistical Analysis of Human Reliability of Armored Equipment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Wei-ping; CAO Wei-guo; REN Jing

    2007-01-01

    Human errors of seven types of armored equipment, which occur during the course of field test, are statistically analyzed. The human error-to-armored equipment failure ratio is obtained. The causes of human errors are analyzed. The distribution law of human errors is acquired. The ratio of human errors and human reliability index are also calculated.

  1. Test-retest reliability of a questionnaire to assess physical environmental factors pertaining to physical activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    McGinn Aileen P

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Despite the documented benefits of physical activity, many adults do not obtain the recommended amounts. Barriers to physical activity occur at multiple levels, including at the individual, interpersonal, and environmental levels. Only until more recently has there been a concerted focus on how the physical environment might affect physical activity behavior. With this new area of study, self-report measures should be psychometrically tested before use in research studies. Therefore the objective of this study was to document the test-retest reliability of a questionnaire designed to assess physical environmental factors that might be associated with physical activity in a diverse adult population. Methods Test and retest surveys were conducted over the telephone with 106 African American and White women and men living in either Forsyth County, North Carolina or Jackson, Mississippi. Reliability of self-reported environmental factors across four domains (e.g., access to facilities and destinations, functionality and safety, aesthetics, natural environment was determined using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC overall and separately by gender and race. Results Generally items displayed moderate and sometimes substantial reliability (ICC between 0.4 to 0.8, with a few differences by gender or race, across each of the domains. Conclusion This study provides some psychometric evidence for the use of many of these questions in studies examining the effect of self-reported physical environmental measures on physical activity behaviors, among African American and White women and men.

  2. Screen for child anxiety related emotional disorders: are subscale scores reliable? A bifactor model analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeSousa, Diogo Araújo; Zibetti, Murilo Ricardo; Trentini, Clarissa Marceli; Koller, Silvia Helena; Manfro, Gisele Gus; Salum, Giovanni Abrahão

    2014-12-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the utility of creating and scoring subscales for the self-report version of the Screen for Child Anxiety Related Emotional Disorders (SCARED) by examining whether subscale scores provide reliable information after accounting for a general anxiety factor in a bifactor model analysis. A total of 2420 children aged 9-18 answered the SCARED in their schools. Results suggested adequate fit of the bifactor model. The SCARED score variance was hardly influenced by the specific domains after controlling for the common variance in the general factor. The explained common variance (ECV) for the general factor was large (63.96%). After accounting for the general total score (ωh=.83), subscale scores provided very little reliable information (ωh ranged from .005 to .04). Practitioners that use the SCARED should be careful when scoring and interpreting the instrument subscales since there is more common variance to them than specific variance. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Fatigue Reliability and Calibration of Fatigue Design Factors for Offshore Wind Turbines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio Márquez-Domínguez

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Consequences of failure of offshore wind turbines (OWTs is in general lower than consequences of failure of, e.g., oil & gas platforms. It is reasonable that lower fatigue design factors can be applied for fatigue design of OWTs when compared to other fixed offshore structures. Calibration of appropriate partial safety factors/Fatigue Design Factors (FDF for steel substructures for OWTs is the scope of this paper. A reliability-based approach is used and a probabilistic model has been developed, where design and limit state equations are established for fatigue failure. The strength and load uncertainties are described by stochastic variables. SN and fracture mechanics approaches are considered for to model the fatigue life. Further, both linear and bi-linear SN-curves are formulated and various approximations are investigated. The acceptable reliability level for fatigue failure of OWTs is discussed and results are presented for calibrated optimal fatigue design factors. Further, the influence of inspections is considered in order to extend and maintain a given target safety level.

  4. An Evaluation of the Reliability, Construct Validity, and Factor Structure of the Static-2002R.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Sandy; Ennis, Liam; Hermann, Chantal A; Pham, Anna T; Choy, Alberto L; Corabian, Gabriela; Hook, Tarah

    2017-03-01

    The fundamental psychometric properties of the subscales found in the Static-2002R, an actuarial measure of sexual recidivism risk, were evaluated in the current study. Namely, the reliability, concurrent and construct validity, and factor structure of the Static-2002R subscales were examined with a sample of 372 adult male sex offenders. In addition to using validated measures of sexual violence risk to examine concurrent validity, construct-related measures taken from extant risk measures and psychometric tests were correlated with three of the subscales to assess overall construct validity. Moderate support was found for the reliability of the Static-2002R. The concurrent and construct validity of the General Criminality, Persistence of Sexual Offending, and Deviant Sexual Interest subscales were supported. Generally, these findings further support the Static-2002R as a valid sex offender risk appraisal instrument that encompasses multiple distinct, clinically relevant, risk domains.

  5. Reliability and construct validity of factors underlying the emotional intelligence of Iranian EFL teachers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ebrahim Khodadady

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Home Journal Archive V1N3A8Reliability and construct validity of factors underlying the emotional intelligence of Iranian EFL teachers   Ebrahim Khodadady Ferdowsi University of Mashhad Saaber Andargani TabrizFerdowsi University of MashhadInternational Branch, Mashhad, Iran    ABSTRACT The 133-item Emotional Quotient Inventory (EQ-i designed by Bar-On (1997 and translated by Dehshiry (2003 was revised and modified by removing the response validity items, changing reverse indicators into positively worded statements and revising the remaining 117 Persian indicators on the basis of schema theory. It was administered to 669 instructors most of whom were teaching English as a foreign language (EFL in national branches of Iran Language Institute in 15 cities. The application of the Principal Axis Factoring to the data and rotating the extracted factors via Varimax with Kaiser Normalization yielded 15 latent variables (LVs called Humanistic, Self-Satisfying, Self-Confident, Self-Aware, Self-Controlled, Research-Oriented, Content, Sociable, Empathetic, Tolerant, Flexible, Realistic, Independent, Emotional and Happy in this study. Not only did the modified Persian EQ-I proved to be more reliable than its original version, but also its thirteen LVs reached very high and acceptable levels of reliability. With the exception of the last, all the LVs also correlated significantly with each other and thus established the EI as a multifactorial construct whose constituting LVs are closely related to each other. The findings question correlating the so-called competences of EI and offer employing the factorially valid LVs as the best factors to explore the relationship between EI and variables involved in teaching and learning EFL.

  6. Electric Power quality Analysis in research reactor: Impacts on nuclear safety assessment and electrical distribution reliability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Touati, Said; Chennai, Salim; Souli, Aissa [Nuclear Research Centre of Birine, Ain Oussera, Djelfa Province (Algeria)

    2015-07-01

    The increased requirements on supervision, control, and performance in modern power systems make power quality monitoring a common practise for utilities. Large databases are created and automatic processing of the data is required for fast and effective use of the available information. Aim of the work presented in this paper is the development of tools for analysis of monitoring power quality data and in particular measurements of voltage and currents in various level of electrical power distribution. The study is extended to evaluate the reliability of the electrical system in nuclear plant. Power Quality is a measure of how well a system supports reliable operation of its loads. A power disturbance or event can involve voltage, current, or frequency. Power disturbances can originate in consumer power systems, consumer loads, or the utility. The effect of power quality problems is the loss power supply leading to severe damage to equipments. So, we try to track and improve system reliability. The assessment can be focused on the study of impact of short circuits on the system, harmonics distortion, power factor improvement and effects of transient disturbances on the Electrical System during motor starting and power system fault conditions. We focus also on the review of the Electrical System design against the Nuclear Directorate Safety Assessment principles, including those extended during the last Fukushima nuclear accident. The simplified configuration of the required system can be extended from this simple scheme. To achieve these studies, we have used a demo ETAP power station software for several simulations. (authors)

  7. Factor analysis of multivariate data

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Fernandes, A.A.; Mahadevan, R.

    A brief introduction to factor analysis is presented. A FORTRAN program, which can perform the Q-mode and R-mode factor analysis and the singular value decomposition of a given data matrix is presented in Appendix B. This computer program, uses...

  8. Factor Analysis of Intern Effectiveness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Womack, Sid T.; Hannah, Shellie Louise; Bell, Columbus David

    2012-01-01

    Four factors in teaching intern effectiveness, as measured by a Praxis III-similar instrument, were found among observational data of teaching interns during the 2010 spring semester. Those factors were lesson planning, teacher/student reflection, fairness & safe environment, and professionalism/efficacy. This factor analysis was as much of a…

  9. Factor analysis and missing data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kamakura, WA; Wedel, M

    2000-01-01

    The authors study the estimation of factor models and the imputation of missing data and propose an approach that provides direct estimates of factor weights without the replacement of missing data with imputed values. First, the approach is useful in applications of factor analysis in the presence

  10. Reliability Analysis and Standardization of Spacecraft Command Generation Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meshkat, Leila; Grenander, Sven; Evensen, Ken

    2011-01-01

    center dot In order to reduce commanding errors that are caused by humans, we create an approach and corresponding artifacts for standardizing the command generation process and conducting risk management during the design and assurance of such processes. center dot The literature review conducted during the standardization process revealed that very few atomic level human activities are associated with even a broad set of missions. center dot Applicable human reliability metrics for performing these atomic level tasks are available. center dot The process for building a "Periodic Table" of Command and Control Functions as well as Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) models is demonstrated. center dot The PRA models are executed using data from human reliability data banks. center dot The Periodic Table is related to the PRA models via Fault Links.

  11. Factor Structure, Validity and Reliability of the Revised Version of Skin Picking Scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehdi Rabiei

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: The purpose of this study was to examine the factor structure, validity and reliability of the Skin Picking Scale-Revised Version. Materials and Methods: In this descriptive and validation study, participants were 550 (250 male and 300 female of the University of Isfahan were selected randomly from 15000 students. In order to examine the factor structure of the SPS-R we conducted both exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses and Cronbach's alpha. Results: Convergent validity of SPS-R with YBOCS-BDD, OCI-R and DASS 21-item were r=0.45, r=0.51 and r=0.70 (p<0.001. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses revealed two factors, one assessing impairment and the other symptom severity (4 items each. These factors could determine 58.1% of the variance. The Cronbach's alpha for the two factors were above 0.88. Also, results were shown to possess good psychometric properties, as well as discriminant validity and classification accuracy, in both clinical and community populations. Conclusion: It can be concluded that this instrument is a useful measure for assess skin-picking disorder symptoms in clinical assessment.

  12. A New Method for System Reliability Analysis of Tailings Dam Stability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, X.; Tang, H.; Xiong, C.; Ni, W.

    2012-12-01

    For the purpose of stability evaluation, a tailings dam can be considered as an artificial slope made of special soil materials which mainly come from mine tailings. As a particular engineering project, a tailings dam generally has experienced multi-loop hydraulic sediments as well as a long-term consolidation in the process of construction. The characteristics of sediment and consolidation result in a unique distribution of the soil layers with significant uncertainties, which come from both nature development and various human activities, and thus cause the discrete and the variability of the physical-mechanical properties dramatically greater than the natural geo-materials. Therefore, the location of critical slip surface (CSS) of the dam usually presents a notable drift. So, it means that the reliability evaluation task for a tailings dam is a system reliability problem indeed. Unfortunately, the previous research of reliability of tailings dam was mainly confined to the limit equilibrium method (LEM), which has three obvious drawbacks. First, it just focused on the variability along the slip surface rather than the whole space of the dam. Second, a fixed CSS, instead of variable one, was concerned in most cases. Third, the shape of the CSS was usually simplified to a circular. The present paper tried to construct a new reliability analysis model combined with several advanced techniques involving finite difference method (FDM), Monte Carlo simulation (MCS), support vector machine (SVM) and particle swarm optimization (PSO). The new framework was consisted of four modules. The first one is the limit equilibrium finite difference mode, which employed the FLAC3D code to generate stress fields and then used PSO algorithm to search the location of CSS and corresponding minimum factor of safety (FOS). The most value of this module was that each realization of stress field would lead to a particular CSS and its FOS. In other words, the consideration of the drift of

  13. Reliability Analysis of Bearing Capacity of Large-Diameter Piles under Osterberg Test

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Nie

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available This study gives the reliability analysis of bearing capacity of large-diameter piles under osterberg test. The limit state equation of dimensionless random variables is utilized in the reliability analysis of vertical bearing capacity of large-diameter piles based on Osterberg loading tests. And the reliability index and the resistance partial coefficient under the current specifications are calculated using calibration method. The results show: the reliable index of large-diameter piles is correlated with the load effect ratio and is smaller than the ordinary piles; resistance partial coefficient of 1.53 is proper in design of large-diameter piles.

  14. Analysis of Syetem Reliability in Manufacturing Cell Based on Triangular Fuzzy Number

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Caibo; HAN Botang; SUN Changsen; XU Chunjie

    2006-01-01

    Due to lacking of test-data and field-data in reliability research during the design stage of manufacturing cell system. The degree of manufacturing cell system reliability research is increased. In order to deal with the deficient data and the uncertainty occurred from analysis and judgment, the paper discussed a method for studying reliability of manufacturing cell system through the analysis of fuzzy fault tree, which was based on triangular fuzzy number. At last, calculation case indicated that it would have great significance for ascertaining reliability index, maintenance and establishing keeping strategy towards manufacturing cell system.

  15. Reliability and construct validity of factors underlying the emotional intelligence of Iranian EFL teachers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ebrahim Khodadady

    2013-06-01

    The 133-item Emotional Quotient Inventory (EQ-i designed by Bar-On (1997 and translated by Dehshiry (2003 was revised and modified by removing the response validity items, changing reverse indicators into positively worded statements and revising the remaining 117 Persian indicators on the basis of schema theory. It was administered to 669 instructors most of whom were teaching English as a foreign language (EFL in national branches of Iran Language Institute in 15 cities. The application of the Principal Axis Factoring to the data and rotating the extracted factors via Varimax with Kaiser Normalization yielded 15 latent variables (LVs called Humanistic, Self-Satisfying, Self-Confident, Self-Aware, Self-Controlled, Research-Oriented, Content, Sociable, Empathetic, Tolerant, Flexible, Realistic, Independent, Emotional and Happy in this study. Not only did the modified Persian EQ-I proved to be more reliable than its original version, but also its thirteen LVs reached very high and acceptable levels of reliability. With the exception of the last, all the LVs also correlated significantly with each other and thus established the EI as a multifactorial construct whose constituting LVs are closely related to each other. The findings question correlating the so-called competences of EI and offer employing the factorially valid LVs as the best factors to explore the relationship between EI and variables involved in teaching and learning EFL.

  16. A Reliability Generalization Meta-Analysis of Coefficient Alpha for the Maslach Burnout Inventory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Denna L.; Vassar, Matt; Worley, Jody A.; Barnes, Laura L. B.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to synthesize internal consistency reliability for the subscale scores on the Maslach Burnout Inventory (MBI). The authors addressed three research questions: (a) What is the mean subscale score reliability for the MBI across studies? (b) What factors are associated with observed variance in MBI subscale score…

  17. A Reliability Generalization Meta-Analysis of Coefficient Alpha for the Maslach Burnout Inventory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Denna L.; Vassar, Matt; Worley, Jody A.; Barnes, Laura L. B.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to synthesize internal consistency reliability for the subscale scores on the Maslach Burnout Inventory (MBI). The authors addressed three research questions: (a) What is the mean subscale score reliability for the MBI across studies? (b) What factors are associated with observed variance in MBI subscale score…

  18. Human reliability analysis data obtainment through fuzzy logic in nuclear plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nascimento, C.S. do, E-mail: claudio.souza@ctmsp.mar.mil.br [Centro Tecnologico da Marinha em Sao Paulo (CTMSP), Av. Professor Lineu Prestes 2468, 05508-000 Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Mesquita, R.N. de, E-mail: rnavarro@ipen.br [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN - SP), Av. Professor Lineu Prestes 2242, 05508-000 Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2012-09-15

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Human Error Probability estimates from operator's reactions to emergency situations. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Human Reliability Analysis input data obtainment through fuzzy logic inference. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Performance Shaping Factors evaluation influence level onto the operator's actions. - Abstract: Human error has been recognized as an important factor for many industrial and nuclear accidents occurrence. Human error data is scarcely available for different reasons among which, lapses in historical database registry methodology is an important one. Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is an usual tool employed to estimate the probability that an operator will reasonably perform a system required task in required time without degrading the system. This meta-analysis requires specific Human Error Probability estimates for most of its procedure. This work obtains Human Error Probability (HEP) estimates from operator's actions in response to emergency situations hypothesis on Research Reactor IEA-R1 from IPEN, Brazil. Through this proposed methodology HRA should be able to be performed even with shortage of related human error statistical data. A Performance Shaping Factors (PSF's) evaluation in order to classify and estimate their influence level onto the operator's actions and to determine their actual state over the plant was also done. Both HEP estimation and PSF evaluation were done based on expert judgment using interviews and questionnaires. Expert group was established based on selected IEA-R1 operators, and their evaluation were put into a knowledge representation system which used linguistic variables and group evaluation values that were obtained through Fuzzy Logic and Fuzzy Set theory. HEP obtained values show good agreement with literature published data corroborating the proposed methodology as a good alternative to be used on HRA.

  19. Adapting Human Reliability Analysis from Nuclear Power to Oil and Gas Applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boring, Ronald Laurids [Idaho National Laboratory

    2015-09-01

    ABSTRACT: Human reliability analysis (HRA), as currently used in risk assessments, largely derives its methods and guidance from application in the nuclear energy domain. While there are many similarities be-tween nuclear energy and other safety critical domains such as oil and gas, there remain clear differences. This paper provides an overview of HRA state of the practice in nuclear energy and then describes areas where refinements to the methods may be necessary to capture the operational context of oil and gas. Many key distinctions important to nuclear energy HRA such as Level 1 vs. Level 2 analysis may prove insignifi-cant for oil and gas applications. On the other hand, existing HRA methods may not be sensitive enough to factors like the extensive use of digital controls in oil and gas. This paper provides an overview of these con-siderations to assist in the adaptation of existing nuclear-centered HRA methods to the petroleum sector.

  20. Acquisition and statistical analysis of reliability data for I and C parts in plant protection system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lim, T. J.; Byun, S. S.; Han, S. H.; Lee, H. J.; Lim, J. S.; Oh, S. J.; Park, K. Y.; Song, H. S. [Soongsil Univ., Seoul (Korea)

    2001-04-01

    This project has been performed in order to construct I and C part reliability databases for detailed analysis of plant protection system and to develop a methodology for analysing trip set point drifts. Reliability database for the I and C parts of plant protection system is required to perform the detailed analysis. First, we have developed an electronic part reliability prediction code based on MIL-HDBK-217F. Then we have collected generic reliability data for the I and C parts in plant protection system. Statistical analysis procedure has been developed to process the data. Then the generic reliability database has been constructed. We have also collected plant specific reliability data for the I and C parts in plant protection system for YGN 3,4 and UCN 3,4 units. Plant specific reliability database for I and C parts has been developed by the Bayesian procedure. We have also developed an statistical analysis procedure for set point drift, and performed analysis of drift effects for trip set point. The basis for the detailed analysis can be provided from the reliability database for the PPS I and C parts. The safety of the KSNP and succeeding NPPs can be proved by reducing the uncertainty of PSA. Economic and efficient operation of NPP can be possible by optimizing the test period to reduce utility's burden. 14 refs., 215 figs., 137 tabs. (Author)

  1. Model correction factor method for system analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager; Johannesen, Johannes M.

    2000-01-01

    The Model Correction Factor Method is an intelligent response surface method based on simplifiedmodeling. MCFM is aimed for reliability analysis in case of a limit state defined by an elaborate model. Herein it isdemonstrated that the method is applicable for elaborate limit state surfaces on which...... severallocally most central points exist without there being a simple geometric definition of the corresponding failuremodes such as is the case for collapse mechanisms in rigid plastic hinge models for frame structures. Taking as simplifiedidealized model a model of similarity with the elaborate model...... surface than existing in the idealized model....

  2. Study on Performance Influencing Factors in Computer Simulation of Team Reliability Analysis%计算机仿真事故响应中的班组绩效影响因子研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    廖可兵; 刘爱群; 赵军

    2011-01-01

    Under the emergency of nuclear power plant, the information, decision, and action in crew context (IDAC) model for HRA can be used to predict the error response probabilities of operating crew in control room by computer simulation. To quantify the error mechanism of human's cognitive psychological process, PIF is adopted to calculate team error probability. Firstly, PIF is defined, classified and quantified. Then the relation between the error mechanism of human's cognitive psychological process and PIF is described, and team error probability is predicted. Some important factors in 50 PIFs are expounded, among which the PIF in each group are independent, but the PIF in different groups may be dependent. This paper intends to reasonably select out PIF, based on psychological observation and influence path of HRA method, so as to fulfill the quantification of human error probability in dynamic probabilistic risk assessment.%在核电站应急事件的工况下,用计算机仿真的人的班组行为模型(IDAC模型)可以预计主控室操作班组人员(决策者、操作者和咨询者组成)的失误概率,为了量化事件过程中人的认知心理活动发生的机理,采用绩效影响因子(PIF)计算班组人员发生失误的概率.讨论PIF的定义、分类以及量化值的确定,描述人的认知心理活动的失误机理与PIF的关系,预计班组失误事件发生的概率.对50个PIFs中的一些重因子进行描述,每组中的PIF都是独立于其他组的,但是不同组中的PIF可能存在从属关系.试图基于心理学观察以及各种人的可靠性分析方法的影响路径,合理有效地选择PIF,以实现动态概率风险评价中的人误事件发生概率的量化.

  3. Structural Reliability Analysis for Implicit Performance with Legendre Orthogonal Neural Network Method

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Lirong Sha; Tongyu Wang

    2016-01-01

    In order to evaluate the failure probability of a complicated structure, the structural responses usually need to be estimated by some numerical analysis methods such as finite element method ( FEM) . The response surface method ( RSM) can be used to reduce the computational effort required for reliability analysis when the performance functions are implicit. However, the conventional RSM is time⁃consuming or cumbersome if the number of random variables is large. This paper proposes a Legendre orthogonal neural network ( LONN)⁃based RSM to estimate the structural reliability. In this method, the relationship between the random variables and structural responses is established by a LONN model. Then the LONN model is connected to a reliability analysis method, i.e. first⁃order reliability methods (FORM) to calculate the failure probability of the structure. Numerical examples show that the proposed approach is applicable to structural reliability analysis, as well as the structure with implicit performance functions.

  4. Reliability and Sensitivity Analysis of Cast Iron Water Pipes for Agricultural Food Irrigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanling Ni

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to investigate the reliability and sensitivity of cast iron water pipes for agricultural food irrigation. The Monte Carlo simulation method is used for fracture assessment and reliability analysis of cast iron pipes for agricultural food irrigation. Fracture toughness is considered as a limit state function for corrosion affected cast iron pipes. Then the influence of failure mode on the probability of pipe failure has been discussed. Sensitivity analysis also is carried out to show the effect of changing basic parameters on the reliability and life time of the pipe. The analysis results show that the applied methodology can consider different random variables for estimating of life time of the pipe and it can also provide scientific guidance for rehabilitation and maintenance plans for agricultural food irrigation. In addition, the results of the failure and reliability analysis in this study can be useful for designing of more reliable new pipeline systems for agricultural food irrigation.

  5. Vitamin E profile as a reliable authenticity discrimination factor between chestnut (Castanea sativa Mill.) cultivars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barreira, João C M; Alves, Rita C; Casal, Susana; Ferreira, Isabel C F R; Oliveira, M Beatriz P P; Pereira, José Alberto

    2009-06-24

    In this study, the profile of tocopherols and tocotrienols in chestnut ( Castanea sativa Mill.) kernel oil was evaluated. Four Portuguese chestnut varieties were selected: Aveleira, Boaventura, Judia, and Longal. The vitamin E determination had already been applied to similar matrices, but, to the authors' knowledge, it is the first time that chestnut kernel oil has been evaluated. The prevalent vitamer was gamma-tocopherol, often present in trace amounts in other natural products. Due to the high commercial value of chestnut, a statistical analysis of the obtained results was also conducted to define the tocopherol and tocotrienol profile as a reliable indicator of a specific chestnut variety. To achieve this objective, an analysis of variance was performed to evaluate the accuracy of the method as well as the uniformity of results for each variety. A discriminant analysis was also carried out revealing quite satisfactory results. Four varieties were clustered in four individual groups through the definition of two discriminant analysis dimensions.

  6. Reliability of the ATD Angle in Dermatoglyphic Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunson, Emily K; Hohnan, Darryl J; Giovas, Christina M

    2015-09-01

    The "ATD" angle is a dermatoglyphic trait formed by drawing lines between the triradii below the first and last digits and the most proximal triradius on the hypothenar region of the palm. This trait has been widely used in dermatoglyphic studies, but several researchers have questioned its utility, specifically whether or not it can be measured reliably. The purpose of this research was to examine the measurement reliability of this trait. Finger and palm prints were taken using the carbon paper and tape method from the right and left hands of 100 individuals. Each "ATD" angle was read twice, at different times, by Reader A, using a goniometer and a magnifying glass, and three times by a Reader B, using Adobe Photoshop. Inter-class correlation coefficients were estimated for the intra- and inter-reader measurements of the "ATD" angles. Reader A was able to quantify ATD angles on 149 out of 200 prints (74.5%), and Reader B on 179 out of 200 prints (89.5%). Both readers agreed on whether an angle existed on a print 89.8% of the time for the right hand and 78.0% for the left. Intra-reader correlations were 0.97 or greater for both readers. Inter-reader correlations for "ATD" angles measured by both readers ranged from 0.92 to 0.96. These results suggest that the "ATD" angle can be measured reliably, and further imply that measurement using a software program may provide an advantage over other methods.

  7. Construct Validity and Reliability of the Adult Rejection Sensitivity Questionnaire: A Comparison of Three Factor Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Innamorati

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives and Methods. The aim of the study was to investigate the construct validity of the ARSQ. Methods. The ARSQ and self-report measures of depression, anxiety, and hopelessness were administered to 774 Italian adults, aged 18 to 64 years. Results. Structural equation modeling indicated that the factor structure of the ARSQ can be represented by a bifactor model: a general rejection sensitivity factor and two group factors, expectancy of rejection and rejection anxiety. Reliability of observed scores was not satisfactory: only 44% of variance in observed total scores was due to the common factors. The analyses also indicated different correlates for the general factor and the group factors. Limitations. We administered an Italian version of the ARSQ to a nonclinical sample of adults, so that studies which use clinical populations or the original version of the ARSQ could obtain different results from those presented here. Conclusion. Our results suggest that the construct validity of the ARSQ is disputable and that rejection anxiety and expectancy could bias individuals to readily perceive and strongly react to cues of rejection in different ways.

  8. Reliability Analysis of Timber Structures through NDT Data Upgrading

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sousa, Hélder; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning

    for reliability calculation. In chapter 4, updating methods are conceptualized and defined. Special attention is drawn upon Bayesian methods and its implementation. Also a topic for updating based in inspection of deterioration is provided. State of the art definitions and proposed measurement indices......The first part of this document presents, in chapter 2, a description of timber characteristics and common used NDT and MDT for timber elements. Stochastic models for timber properties and damage accumulation models are also referred. According to timber’s properties a framework is proposed...

  9. A disjoint algorithm for seismic reliability analysis of lifeline networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    The algorithm is based on constructing a disjoin kg t set of the minimal paths in a network system. In this paper,cubic notation was used to describe the logic function of a network in a well-balanced state, and then the sharp-product operation was used to construct the disjoint minimal path set of the network. A computer program has been developed, and when combined with decomposition technology, the reliability of a general lifeline network can be effectively and automatically calculated.

  10. Reliability and maintenance analysis of the CERN PS booster

    CERN Document Server

    Staff, P S B

    1977-01-01

    The PS Booster Synchrotron being a complex accelerator with four superposed rings and substantial additional equipment for beam splitting and recombination, doubts were expressed at the time of project authorization as to its likely operational reliability. For 1975 and 1976, the average down time was 3.2% (at least one ring off) or 1.5% (all four rings off). The items analysed are: operational record, design features, maintenance, spare parts policy, operating temperature, effects of thunderstorms, fault diagnostics, role of operations staff and action by experts. (15 refs).

  11. Inter- and intra-examiner reliability of footprint pattern analysis obtained from diabetics using the Harris mat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cisneros, Lígia de Loiola; Fonseca, Tiago H S; Abreu, Vivianni C

    2010-01-01

    High plantar pressure is a proven risk factor for ulceration among individuals with diabetes mellitus. The Harris and Beath footprinting mat is one of the tools used in screening for foot ulceration risk among these subjects. There are no reports in the literature on the reliability of footprint analysis using print pattern criteria. The aim of this study was to evaluate the inter- and intra-examiner reliability of the analysis of footprint patterns obtained using the Harris and Beath footprinting mat. Footprints were taken from 41 subjects using the footprinting mat. The images were subjected to analysis by three independent examiners. To investigate the intra-examiner reliability, the analysis was repeated by one of the examiners one week later. The weighted kappa coefficient was excellent (K(w) > 0.80) for the inter- and intra-examiner analyses for most of the points studied on both feet. The criteria for analyzing footprint patterns obtained using the Harris and Beath footprinting mat presented good reliability and high to excellent inter- and intra-examiner agreement. This method is reliable for analyses involving one or more examiners. Article registered in the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR) under the number ACTRN12609000693224.

  12. Reliability and Concurrent Validation of the IPIP Big-Five Factor Markers in China: Consistencies in Factor Structure between Internet-Obtained Heterosexual and Homosexual Samples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Lijun; Goldberg, Lewis R.; Zheng, Yong; Zhao, Yufang; Tang, Yonglong; Liu, Li

    2010-01-01

    Previous studies have suggested the cross-cultural generalizability of a 5-factor structure for personality traits. In this article, we analyzed the utility of 2 versions (100-item and 50-item) of the IPIP Big-Five factor markers in both heterosexual (N = 633) and homosexual (N = 437) samples in China. Factor analysis within versions showed that both versions of these IPIP measures showed clear 5-factor orthogonal structures that were nearly identical to the American structure in both subject samples. The reliabilities of the five factors were quite high except for the 50-item measure of Agreeableness. The part-whole correlations between the 100-item and 50-item factors were high, as were the factor congruence coefficients between the heterosexual and the homosexual samples. Both versions of the IPIP Big-Five factor markers were strongly correlated with the scales from the Big Five Inventory (BFI: John, Donahue & Kentle, 1991), thus providing some concurrent validation in a Chinese context. PMID:20383283

  13. Inter-rater reliability and factor analysis of the Brazilian version of the Schedule for the Assessment of Insight: Expanded Version (SAI-E Estudo de confiabilidade entre avaliadores e análise fatorial da versão brasileira do Schedule for the Assessment of Insight: Expanded Version (SAI-E

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clarissa de Rosalmeida Dantas

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: The Schedule for the Assessment of Insight - Expanded Version consists of 11 items that encompass: awareness of having a mental illness, ability to rename psychotic phenomena as abnormal, and compliance with treatment. The objective of the study was to evaluate the inter-rater reliability and to study the factorial structure of the Brazilian version of the instrument. METHOD: The Brazilian version of the Schedule for the Assessment of Insight - Expanded Version was used for the assessment of insight of 109 psychotic inpatients, 60 of whom had the interview tape-recorded in order to be scored by an independent evaluator. Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC was adopted as the inter-rater reliability coefficient. In the factor analysis, principal components analysis and Varimax rotation were adopted. RESULTS: Inter-rater reliability coefficients from good to excellent were found for the individual items of the Schedule for the Assessment of Insight - Expanded Version with ICC values ranging from 0.54 to 0.82. Regarding the total score, inter-rater reliability was excellent, with ICC = 0.90. A factorial structure similar to the one obtained by the original version of the Schedule for the Assessment of Insight - Expanded Version was found, with 3 factors accounting for 71.72% of variance. CONCLUSION: In the Brazilian context, the Schedule for the Assessment of Insight - Expanded Version presented good inter-rater reliability and factorial structure compatible to the insight dimensions that are intended to be evaluated.OBJETIVOS: O Schedule for the Assessment of Insight - Expanded Version é constituído por 11 itens que abordam: reconhecimento de se ter um transtorno mental, capacidade de renomear fenômenos psicóticos como anormais e adesão ao tratamento. O objetivo do estudo foi avaliar a confiabilidade entre avaliadores e estudar a estrutura fatorial da versão brasileira do Schedule for the Assessment of Insight - Expanded

  14. Reliability analysis of the bulk cargo loading system including dependent components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blokus-Roszkowska, Agnieszka

    2016-06-01

    In the paper an innovative approach to the reliability analysis of multistate series-parallel systems assuming their components' dependency is presented. The reliability function of a multistate series system with components dependent according to the local load sharing rule is determined. Linking these results for series systems with results for parallel systems with independent components, we obtain the reliability function of a multistate series-parallel system assuming dependence of components' departures from the reliability states subsets in series subsystem and assuming independence between these subsystems. As a particular case, the reliability function of a multistate series-parallel system composed of dependent components having exponential reliability functions is fixed. Theoretical results are applied practically to the reliability evaluation of a bulk cargo transportation system, which main area is to load bulk cargo on board the ships. The reliability function and other reliability characteristics of the loading system are determined in case its components have exponential reliability functions with interdependent departures rates from the subsets of their reliability states. Finally, the obtained results are compared with results for the bulk cargo transportation system composed of independent components.

  15. Reliability analysis on a shell and tube heat exchanger

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lingeswara, S.; Omar, R.; Mohd Ghazi, T. I.

    2016-06-01

    A shell and tube heat exchanger reliability was done in this study using past history data from a carbon black manufacturing plant. The heat exchanger reliability study is vital in all related industries as inappropriate maintenance and operation of the heat exchanger will lead to major Process Safety Events (PSE) and loss of production. The overall heat exchanger coefficient/effectiveness (Uo) and Mean Time between Failures (MTBF) were analyzed and calculated. The Aspen and down time data was taken from a typical carbon black shell and tube heat exchanger manufacturing plant. As a result of the Uo calculated and analyzed, it was observed that the Uo declined over a period caused by severe fouling and heat exchanger limitation. This limitation also requires further burn out period which leads to loss of production. The MTBF calculated is 649.35 hours which is very low compared to the standard 6000 hours for the good operation of shell and tube heat exchanger. The guidelines on heat exchanger repair, preventive and predictive maintenance was identified and highlighted for better heat exchanger inspection and repair in the future. The fouling of heat exchanger and the production loss will be continuous if proper heat exchanger operation and repair using standard operating procedure is not followed.

  16. Analysis of Parking Reliability Guidance of Urban Parking Variable Message Sign System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhenyu Mei

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Operators of parking guidance and information systems (PGIS often encounter difficulty in determining when and how to provide reliable car park availability information to drivers. Reliability has become a key factor to ensure the benefits of urban PGIS. The present paper is the first to define the guiding parking reliability of urban parking variable message signs (VMSs. By analyzing the parking choice under guiding and optional parking lots, a guiding parking reliability model was constructed. A mathematical program was formulated to determine the guiding parking reliability of VMS. The procedures were applied to a numerical example, and the factors that affect guiding reliability were analyzed. The quantitative changes of the parking berths and the display conditions of VMS were found to be the most important factors influencing guiding reliability. The parking guiding VMS achieved the best benefit when the parking supply was close to or was less than the demand. The combination of a guiding parking reliability model and parking choice behavior offers potential for PGIS operators to reduce traffic congestion in central city areas.

  17. Measuring help-seeking behaviors: factor structure, reliability, and validity among youth with disabilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pham, Yen K; McWhirter, Ellen Hawley; Murray, Christopher

    2014-04-01

    Existing measures of help-seeking focus on assessing attitudes and beliefs, rather than specific behaviors, toward help-seeking. This study described the development of a self-report measure of informal help-seeking behaviors (HSB). Participants were 228 high school students (148 males, 80 females) with disabilities from four states. Factor analyses revealed three underlying factors, each addressing a different source of help: parent, peer, and teacher. The HSB had good internal reliability and moderate validity. Results from regression analyses suggested that help-seeking behaviors toward parents and teachers contributed uniquely to students' self-ratings of school bonding, life satisfaction, and career outcome expectations. Help-seeking behaviors toward peers was a negative predictor of career outcome expectations. The value of the HSB as a research instrument was discussed. Copyright © 2014 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Number of iterations needed in Monte Carlo Simulation using reliability analysis for tunnel supports

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Bukaçi

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available There are many methods in geotechnical engineering which could take advantage of Monte Carlo Simulation to establish probability of failure, since closed form solutions are almost impossible to use in most cases. The problem that arises with using Monte Carlo Simulation is the number of iterations needed for a particular simulation.This article will show why it’s important to calculate number of iterations needed for Monte Carlo Simulation used in reliability analysis for tunnel supports using convergence – confinement method. Number if iterations needed will be calculated with two methods. In the first method, the analyst has to accept a distribution function for the performance function. The other method suggested by this article is to calculate number of iterations based on the convergence of the factor the analyst is interested in the calculation. Reliability analysis will be performed for the diversion tunnel in Rrëshen, Albania, by using both methods mentioned and results will be confronted

  19. Reliability Analysis of Production System of Fully-Mechanized Face Based on Output Statistic

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CAI Qing-xiang; LI Nai-liang

    2005-01-01

    Production system of fully-mechanized face is a complicated system composed of human, machine and environment, meantime influenced by various random factors. Analyzing the reliability of system needs plentiful data by means of system faults statistic. Based on the viewpoint that shift output of fully-mechanized face is the result of various random factors' synthetical influence, the process of how to analyze its reliability was deduced by using probability theory, symbolic statistics theory and systematic reliability theory combined with the concrete case study in this paper. And it has been proved that this method is feasible and valuable.

  20. Methodology for reliability allocation based on fault tree analysis and dualistic contrast

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    TONG Lili; CAO Xuewu

    2008-01-01

    Reliability allocation is a difficult multi-objective optimization problem.This paper presents a methodology for reliability allocation that can be applied to determine the reliability characteristics of reactor systems or subsystems.The dualistic contrast,known as one of the most powerful tools for optimization problems,is applied to the reliability allocation model of a typical system in this article.And the fault tree analysis,deemed to be one of the effective methods of reliability analysis,is also adopted.Thus a failure rate allocation model based on the fault tree analysis and dualistic contrast is achieved.An application on the emergency diesel generator in the nuclear power plant is given to illustrate the proposed method.

  1. Reliablity analysis of gravity dams by response surface method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humar, Nina; Kryžanowski, Andrej; Brilly, Mitja; Schnabl, Simon

    2013-04-01

    A dam failure is one of the most important problems in dam industry. Since the mechanical behavior of dams is usually a complex phenomenon existing classical mathematical models are generally insufficient to adequately predict the dam failure and thus the safety of dams. Therefore, numerical reliability methods are often used to model such a complex mechanical phenomena. Thus, the main purpose of the present paper is to present the response surface method as a powerful mathematical tool used to study and foresee the dam safety considering a set of collected monitoring data. The derived mathematical model is applied to a case study, the Moste dam, which is the highest concrete gravity dam in Slovenia. Based on the derived model, the ambient/state variables are correlated with the dam deformation in order to gain a forecasting tool able to define the critical thresholds for dam management.

  2. Reliability of three-dimensional gait analysis in cervical spondylotic myelopathy.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    McDermott, Ailish

    2010-10-01

    Gait impairment is one of the primary symptoms of cervical spondylotic myelopathy (CSM). Detailed assessment is possible using three-dimensional gait analysis (3DGA), however the reliability of 3DGA for this population has not been established. The aim of this study was to evaluate the test-retest reliability of temporal-spatial, kinematic and kinetic parameters in a CSM population.

  3. RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF A SYSTEM OF BOILER USED IN READYMADE GARMENT INDUSTRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R.K. Agnihotri

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The present paper deals with the reliability analysis of a system of boiler used in garment industry.The system consists of a single unit of boiler which plays an important role in garment industry. Usingregenerative point technique with Markov renewal process various reliability characteristics of interest areobtained.

  4. Convergence among Data Sources, Response Bias, and Reliability and Validity of a Structured Job Analysis Questionnaire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jack E.; Hakel, Milton D.

    1979-01-01

    Examined are questions pertinent to the use of the Position Analysis Questionnaire: Who can use the PAQ reliably and validly? Must one rely on trained job analysts? Can people having no direct contact with the job use the PAQ reliably and validly? Do response biases influence PAQ responses? (Author/KC)

  5. Risk and reliability analysis theory and applications : in honor of Prof. Armen Der Kiureghian

    CERN Document Server

    2017-01-01

    This book presents a unique collection of contributions from some of the foremost scholars in the field of risk and reliability analysis. Combining the most advanced analysis techniques with practical applications, it is one of the most comprehensive and up-to-date books available on risk-based engineering. All the fundamental concepts needed to conduct risk and reliability assessments are covered in detail, providing readers with a sound understanding of the field and making the book a powerful tool for students and researchers alike. This book was prepared in honor of Professor Armen Der Kiureghian, one of the fathers of modern risk and reliability analysis.

  6. Original article Reliability, factor structure, and construct validity of the Polish version of the sport imagery ability measure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dagmara Budnik-Przybylska

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Background An important component of mental training in sport is the utilization of positive imagery. The “human brain cannot distinguish between an imagined experience and a real experience. The same areas of the brain light up in an imagined experience or imagined performance as in a real experience or performance. For that reason, positive performance imagery has enormous potential” (Orlick, 2008, p. 101. Imagery “has been described as a centre pillar of applied sport psychology” research (Morris, Spittle, & Perry, 2004, p. 344. The aim of the present study was to examine reliability and validity characteristics of the Polish language version of the Sport Imagery Ability Measure (SIAM. Participants and procedure Polish athletes (N = 316 from a range of sports and competitive levels completed the 48 item SIAM. The participants (163 male, 153 female were aged between 12 and 57 years (M = 22.15, SD = 8.25. Results Results indicated that the SIAM had sound internal consistency and maintained good stability over a 3-week period. Confirmatory factor analysis demonstrated that the a priori 3-factor structure of the SIAM resulted in a set of acceptable and poor fit indices (CFI = .91, NFI = .90, RMSEA = .12. Finally, differences in athletes’ imagery abilities were examined in relation to competitive level, gender, and age. Conclusions Overall, results generally supported the reliability and construct validity of the Polish version of the SIAM.

  7. Analysis of C-17 Departure Reliability and Maintenance Metrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-01

    regression output ....................................................................... 32 Figure 17: VIF output...32 Table 6: VIF guidelines...variance inflation factor ( VIF ) from the best model equation of the forward selection procedure is evaluated. VIF indicates the extent to which

  8. Reliability analysis of repairable systems using system dynamics modeling and simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srinivasa Rao, M.; Naikan, V. N. A.

    2014-07-01

    Repairable standby system's study and analysis is an important topic in reliability. Analytical techniques become very complicated and unrealistic especially for modern complex systems. There have been attempts in the literature to evolve more realistic techniques using simulation approach for reliability analysis of systems. This paper proposes a hybrid approach called as Markov system dynamics (MSD) approach which combines the Markov approach with system dynamics simulation approach for reliability analysis and to study the dynamic behavior of systems. This approach will have the advantages of both Markov as well as system dynamics methodologies. The proposed framework is illustrated for a standby system with repair. The results of the simulation when compared with that obtained by traditional Markov analysis clearly validate the MSD approach as an alternative approach for reliability analysis.

  9. RELIABILITY-BASED DESIGN AND ANALYSIS ON HYDRAULIC SYSTEM FOR SYNTHETIC RUBBER PRESS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yao Chengyu; Zhao Jingyi

    2005-01-01

    To overcome the design limitations of traditional hydraulic control system for synthetic rubber press and such faults as high fault rate, low reliability, high energy-consuming and which always led to shutting down of post-treatment product line for synthetic rubber, brand-new hydraulic system combining with PC control and two-way cartridge valves for the press is developed, whose reliability is analyzed, reliability model of the hydraulic system for the press is established by analyzing processing steps, and reliability simulation of each step and the whole system is carried out by software MATLAB, which is verified through reliability test. The fixed time test has proved not that theory analysis is sound, but the system has characteristics of reasonable design and high reliability,and can lower the required power supply and operational energy cost.

  10. Low Carbon-Oriented Optimal Reliability Design with Interval Product Failure Analysis and Grey Correlation Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yixiong Feng

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The problem of large amounts of carbon emissions causes wide concern across the world, and it has become a serious threat to the sustainable development of the manufacturing industry. The intensive research into technologies and methodologies for green product design has significant theoretical meaning and practical value in reducing the emissions of the manufacturing industry. Therefore, a low carbon-oriented product reliability optimal design model is proposed in this paper: (1 The related expert evaluation information was prepared in interval numbers; (2 An improved product failure analysis considering the uncertain carbon emissions of the subsystem was performed to obtain the subsystem weight taking the carbon emissions into consideration. The interval grey correlation analysis was conducted to obtain the subsystem weight taking the uncertain correlations inside the product into consideration. Using the above two kinds of subsystem weights and different caution indicators of the decision maker, a series of product reliability design schemes is available; (3 The interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IVIFSs were employed to select the optimal reliability and optimal design scheme based on three attributes, namely, low carbon, correlation and functions, and economic cost. The case study of a vertical CNC lathe proves the superiority and rationality of the proposed method.

  11. Bridging Human Reliability Analysis and Psychology, Part 2: A Cognitive Framework to Support HRA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    April M. Whaley; Stacey M. L. Hendrickson; Ronald L. Boring; Jing Xing

    2012-06-01

    This is the second of two papers that discuss the literature review conducted as part of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) effort to develop a hybrid human reliability analysis (HRA) method in response to Staff Requirements Memorandum (SRM) SRM-M061020. This review was conducted with the goal of strengthening the technical basis within psychology, cognitive science and human factors for the hybrid HRA method being proposed. An overview of the literature review approach and high-level structure is provided in the first paper, whereas this paper presents the results of the review. The psychological literature review encompassed research spanning the entirety of human cognition and performance, and consequently produced an extensive list of psychological processes, mechanisms, and factors that contribute to human performance. To make sense of this large amount of information, the results of the literature review were organized into a cognitive framework that identifies causes of failure of macrocognition in humans, and connects those proximate causes to psychological mechanisms and performance influencing factors (PIFs) that can lead to the failure. This cognitive framework can serve as a tool to inform HRA. Beyond this, however, the cognitive framework has the potential to also support addressing human performance issues identified in Human Factors applications.

  12. Top-down and bottom-up definitions of human failure events in human reliability analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boring, Ronald Laurids [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2014-10-01

    In the probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) used in the nuclear industry, human failure events (HFEs) are determined as a subset of hardware failures, namely those hardware failures that could be triggered by human action or inaction. This approach is top-down, starting with hardware faults and deducing human contributions to those faults. Elsewhere, more traditionally human factors driven approaches would tend to look at opportunities for human errors first in a task analysis and then identify which of those errors is risk significant. The intersection of top-down and bottom-up approaches to defining HFEs has not been carefully studied. Ideally, both approaches should arrive at the same set of HFEs. This question is crucial, however, as human reliability analysis (HRA) methods are generalized to new domains like oil and gas. The HFEs used in nuclear PRAs tend to be top-down—defined as a subset of the PRA—whereas the HFEs used in petroleum quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) often tend to be bottom-up—derived from a task analysis conducted by human factors experts. The marriage of these approaches is necessary in order to ensure that HRA methods developed for top-down HFEs are also sufficient for bottom-up applications.

  13. Reliability of self-reported health risk factors and chronic conditions questions collected using the telephone in South Australia, Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dal Grande Eleonora

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Accurate monitoring of health conditions and behaviours, and health service usage in the population, using an effective and economical method is important for planning and evaluation. This study examines the reliability of questions asked in a telephone survey by conducting a test/retest analysis of a range of questions covering demographic variables, health risk factors and self-reported chronic conditions among people aged 16 years and over. Methods A Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI survey on health issues of South Australians was re-administered to a random sub-sample of 154 respondents between 13-35 days (mean 17 after the original survey. Reliability between questions was assessed using Cohen’s kappa and intraclass correlation coefficients. Results Demographic questions (age, gender, number of adults and children in the household, country of birth showed extremely high reliability (0.97 to 1.00. Health service use (ICC = 0.90 95% CI 0.86-0.93 and overall health status (Kappa = 0.60 95% CI 0.46-0.75 displayed moderate agreement. Questions relating to self-reported risk factors such as smoking (Kappa = 0.81 95% CI 0.72-0.89 and alcohol drinking (ICC 0.75 = 95% CI 0.63-0.83 behaviour showed good to excellent agreement, while questions relating to self-reported risk factors such as time spent walking for physical activity (ICC 0.47 = 95% CI 0.27-0.61, fruit (Kappaw = 0.60 95% CI 0.45-0.76 and vegetable consumption (Kappaw = 0.50 95% CI 0.32-0.69 showed only moderate agreement. Self-reported chronic conditions displayed substantial to almost perfect agreement (0.72 to 1.00 with the exception of moderate agreement for heart disease (Kappa = 0.82 95% CI 0.57-0.99. Conclusion These results show the questions assessed to be reliable in South Australia for estimating health conditions and monitoring health related behaviours using a CATI survey.

  14. First course in factor analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Comrey, Andrew L

    2013-01-01

    The goal of this book is to foster a basic understanding of factor analytic techniques so that readers can use them in their own research and critically evaluate their use by other researchers. Both the underlying theory and correct application are emphasized. The theory is presented through the mathematical basis of the most common factor analytic models and several methods used in factor analysis. On the application side, considerable attention is given to the extraction problem, the rotation problem, and the interpretation of factor analytic results. Hence, readers are given a background of

  15. Reactor scram experience for shutdown system reliability analysis. [BWR; PWR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edison, G.E.; Pugliese, S.L.; Sacramo, R.F.

    1976-06-01

    Scram experience in a number of operating light water reactors has been reviewed. The date and reactor power of each scram was compiled from monthly operating reports and personal communications with the operating plant personnel. The average scram frequency from ''significant'' power (defined as P/sub trip//P/sub max greater than/ approximately 20 percent) was determined as a function of operating life. This relationship was then used to estimate the total number of reactor trips from above approximately 20 percent of full power expected to occur during the life of a nuclear power plant. The shape of the scram frequency vs. operating life curve resembles a typical reliability bathtub curve (failure rate vs. time), but without a rising ''wearout'' phase due to the lack of operating data near the end of plant design life. For this case the failures are represented by ''bugs'' in the plant system design, construction, and operation which lead to scram. The number of scrams would appear to level out at an average of around three per year; the standard deviations from the mean value indicate an uncertainty of about 50 percent. The total number of scrams from significant power that could be expected in a plant designed for a 40-year life would be about 130 if no wearout phase develops near the end of life.

  16. Intraobserver and intermethod reliability for using two different computer programs in preoperative lower limb alignment analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Kenawey

    2016-12-01

    Conclusion: Computer assisted lower limb alignment analysis is reliable whether using graphics editing program or specialized planning software. However slight higher variability for angles away from the knee joint can be expected.

  17. Reliability of 3D upper limb motion analysis in children with obstetric brachial plexus palsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahon, Judy; Malone, Ailish; Kiernan, Damien; Meldrum, Dara

    2017-03-01

    Kinematics, measured by 3D upper limb motion analysis (3D-ULMA), can potentially increase understanding of movement patterns by quantifying individual joint contributions. Reliability in children with obstetric brachial plexus palsy (OBPP) has not been established.

  18. A survey on the human reliability analysis methods for the design of Korean next generation reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Yong Hee; Lee, J. W.; Park, J. C.; Kwack, H. Y.; Lee, K. Y.; Park, J. K.; Kim, I. S.; Jung, K. W

    2000-03-01

    Enhanced features through applying recent domestic technologies may characterize the safety and efficiency of KNGR(Korea Next Generation Reactor). Human engineered interface and control room environment are expected to be beneficial to the human aspects of KNGR design. However, since the current method for human reliability analysis is not up to date after THERP/SHARP, it becomes hard to assess the potential of human errors due to both of the positive and negative effect of the design changes in KNGR. This is a state of the art report on the human reliability analysis methods that are potentially available for the application to the KNGR design. We surveyed every technical aspects of existing HRA methods, and compared them in order to obtain the requirements for the assessment of human error potentials within KNGR design. We categorized the more than 10 methods into the first and the second generation according to the suggestion of Dr. Hollnagel. THERP was revisited in detail. ATHEANA proposed by US NRC for an advanced design and CREAM proposed by Dr. Hollnagel were reviewed and compared. We conclude that the key requirements might include the enhancement in the early steps for human error identification and the quantification steps with considerations of more extended error shaping factors over PSFs(performance shaping factors). The utilization of the steps and approaches of ATHEANA and CREAM will be beneficial to the attainment of an appropriate HRA method for KNGR. However, the steps and data from THERP will be still maintained because of the continuity with previous PSA activities in KNGR design.

  19. Analysis methods for structure reliability of piping components

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schimpfke, T.; Grebner, H.; Sievers, J. [Gesellschaft fuer Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) mbH, Koeln (Germany)

    2004-07-01

    In the frame of the German reactor safety research program of the Federal Ministry of Economics and Labour (BMWA) GRS has started to develop an analysis code named PROST (PRObabilistic STructure analysis) for estimating the leak and break probabilities of piping systems in nuclear power plants. The long-term objective of this development is to provide failure probabilities of passive components for probabilistic safety analysis of nuclear power plants. Up to now the code can be used for calculating fatigue problems. The paper mentions the main capabilities and theoretical background of the present PROST development and presents some of the results of a benchmark analysis in the frame of the European project NURBIM (Nuclear Risk Based Inspection Methodologies for Passive Components). (orig.)

  20. Use of Fault Tree Analysis for Automotive Reliability and Safety Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lambert, H

    2003-09-24

    Fault tree analysis (FTA) evolved from the aerospace industry in the 1960's. A fault tree is deductive logic model that is generated with a top undesired event in mind. FTA answers the question, ''how can something occur?'' as opposed to failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) that is inductive and answers the question, ''what if?'' FTA is used in risk, reliability and safety assessments. FTA is currently being used by several industries such as nuclear power and chemical processing. Typically the automotive industries uses failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) such as design FMEAs and process FMEAs. The use of FTA has spread to the automotive industry. This paper discusses the use of FTA for automotive applications. With the addition automotive electronics for various applications in systems such as engine/power control, cruise control and braking/traction, FTA is well suited to address failure modes within these systems. FTA can determine the importance of these failure modes from various perspectives such as cost, reliability and safety. A fault tree analysis of a car starting system is presented as an example.

  1. Uncertainty analysis with reliability techniques of fluvial hydraulic simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oubennaceur, K.; Chokmani, K.; Nastev, M.

    2016-12-01

    Flood inundation models are commonly used to simulate hydraulic and floodplain inundation processes, prerequisite to successful floodplain management and preparation of appropriate flood risk mitigation plans. Selecting statistically significant ranges of the variables involved in the inundation modelling is crucial for the model performance. This involves various levels of uncertainty, which due to the cumulative nature can lead to considerable uncertainty in the final results. Therefore, in addition to the validation of the model results, there is a need for clear understanding and identifying sources of uncertainty and for measuring the model uncertainty. A reliability approach called Point-Estimate Method is presented to quantify uncertainty effects of the input data and to calculate the propagation of uncertainty in the inundation modelling process. The Point Estimate Method is a special case of numerical quadrature based on orthogonal polynomials. It allows to evaluate the low order of performance functions of independent random variables such the water depth. The variables considered in the analyses include elevation data, flow rate and Manning's coefficient n given with their own probability distributions. The approach is applied to a 45 km reach of the Richelieu River, Canada, between Rouses point and Fryers Rapids. The finite element hydrodynamic model H2D2 was used to solve the shallow water equations (SWE) and provide maps of expected water depths associated spatial distributions of standard deviations as a measure of uncertainty. The results indicate that for the simulated flow rates of 1113, 1206, and 1282, the uncertainties in water depths have a range of 25 cm, 30cm, and 60 cm, respectively. This kind of information is useful information for decision-making framework risk management in the context flood risk assessment.

  2. Parametric and semiparametric models with applications to reliability, survival analysis, and quality of life

    CERN Document Server

    Nikulin, M; Mesbah, M; Limnios, N

    2004-01-01

    Parametric and semiparametric models are tools with a wide range of applications to reliability, survival analysis, and quality of life. This self-contained volume examines these tools in survey articles written by experts currently working on the development and evaluation of models and methods. While a number of chapters deal with general theory, several explore more specific connections and recent results in "real-world" reliability theory, survival analysis, and related fields.

  3. Enabling More than Moore: Accelerated Reliability Testing and Risk Analysis for Advanced Electronics Packaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghaffarian, Reza; Evans, John W.

    2014-01-01

    For five decades, the semiconductor industry has distinguished itself by the rapid pace of improvement in miniaturization of electronics products-Moore's Law. Now, scaling hits a brick wall, a paradigm shift. The industry roadmaps recognized the scaling limitation and project that packaging technologies will meet further miniaturization needs or ak.a "More than Moore". This paper presents packaging technology trends and accelerated reliability testing methods currently being practiced. Then, it presents industry status on key advanced electronic packages, factors affecting accelerated solder joint reliability of area array packages, and IPC/JEDEC/Mil specifications for characterizations of assemblies under accelerated thermal and mechanical loading. Finally, it presents an examples demonstrating how Accelerated Testing and Analysis have been effectively employed in the development of complex spacecraft thereby reducing risk. Quantitative assessments necessarily involve the mathematics of probability and statistics. In addition, accelerated tests need to be designed which consider the desired risk posture and schedule for particular project. Such assessments relieve risks without imposing additional costs. and constraints that are not value added for a particular mission. Furthermore, in the course of development of complex systems, variances and defects will inevitably present themselves and require a decision concerning their disposition, necessitating quantitative assessments. In summary, this paper presents a comprehensive view point, from technology to systems, including the benefits and impact of accelerated testing in offsetting risk.

  4. Reliability centered maintenance (RCM: quantitative analysis of an induction electric furnace

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego Santos Cerveira

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to define a maintenance strategy for an electric induction furnace, installed on a special steels Foundry. The research method was the quantitative modeling. The proposed method is based on Reliability-Centered Maintenance (RCM, applied to industrial equipment. Quantitative analysis of reliability, availability and maintainability were used as support the definition of the maintenance strategy of the equipment. For research, historical data were collected from time-to-repair (TTR and time between failures (TBF of the equipment under consideration. Supported by ProConf 2000 software, most appropriate distributions have been identified and modeled to TTR (lognormal and TBF (Weibull. With the results, availability of equipment Av = 98,18% and form factor g = 1 of the Weibull distribution were calculated. It was possible to find a position for the equipment on the bathtub curve, in the maturity phase and define the best maintenance strategy for this case, the predictive maintenance. Finally, the current strategy was discussed and development suggestions were presented to this strategy.

  5. Reliability Analysis of Fatigue Failure of Cast Components for Wind Turbines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hesam Mirzaei Rafsanjani

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Fatigue failure is one of the main failure modes for wind turbine drivetrain components made of cast iron. The wind turbine drivetrain consists of a variety of heavily loaded components, like the main shaft, the main bearings, the gearbox and the generator. The failure of each component will lead to substantial economic losses such as cost of lost energy production and cost of repairs. During the design lifetime, the drivetrain components are exposed to variable loads from winds and waves and other sources of loads that are uncertain and have to be modeled as stochastic variables. The types of loads are different for offshore and onshore wind turbines. Moreover, uncertainties about the fatigue strength play an important role in modeling and assessment of the reliability of the components. In this paper, a generic stochastic model for fatigue failure of cast iron components based on fatigue test data and a limit state equation for fatigue failure based on the SN-curve approach and Miner’s rule is presented. The statistical analysis of the fatigue data is performed using the Maximum Likelihood Method which also gives an estimate of the statistical uncertainties. Finally, illustrative examples are presented with reliability analyses depending on various stochastic models and partial safety factors.

  6. Reliability analysis of flood embankments taking into account a stochastic distribution of hydraulic loading

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amabile Alessia

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Flooding is a worldwide phenomenon. Over the last few decades the world has experienced a rising number of devastating flood events and the trend in such natural disasters is increasing. Furthermore, escalations in both the probability and magnitude of flood hazards are expected as a result of climate change. Flood defence embankments are one of the major flood defence measures and reliability assessment for these structures is therefore a very important process. Routine hydro-mechanical models for the stability of flood embankments are based on the assumptions of steady-state through-flow and zero pore-pressures above the phreatic surface, i.e. negative capillary pressure (suction is ignored. Despite common belief, these assumptions may not always lead to conservative design. In addition, hydraulic loading is stochastic in nature and flood embankment stability should therefore be assessed in probabilistic terms. This cannot be accommodated by steady-state flow models. The paper presents an approach for reliability analysis of flood embankment taking into account the transient water through-flow. The factor of safety of the embankment is assessed in probabilistic terms based on a stochastic distribution for the hydraulic loading. Two different probabilistic approaches are tested to compare and validate the results.

  7. Numerical simulation of soldered joints and reliability analysis of PLCC components with J-shape leads

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhang Liang; Xue Songbai; Lu Fangyan; Han Zongjie; Wang Jianxin

    2008-01-01

    This paper deals with a study on SnPb and lead-free soldered joint reliability of PLCC devices with different lead counts under three kinds of temperature cycle profiles, which is based on non-linear finite element method. By analyzing the stress of soldered joints, it is found that the largest stress is at the area between the soldered joints and the leads, and analysis results indicate that the von Mises stress at the location slightly increases with the increase of lead counts. For PLCC with 84 leads the soldered joints was modeled for three typical loading (273-398 K, 218-398 K and 198-398 K) in order to study the influence of acceleration factors on the reliability of soldered joints. And the estimation of equivalent plastic strain of three different lead-free solder alloys (Sn3.8Ag0.7Cu, Sn3.5Ag and Sn37Pb) was also carried out.

  8. Reliability analysis of a gravity-based foundation for wind turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vahdatirad, Mohammad Javad; Griffiths, D. V.; Andersen, Lars Vabbersgaard

    2014-01-01

    Deterministic code-based designs proposed for wind turbine foundations, are typically biased on the conservative side, and overestimate the probability of failure which can lead to higher than necessary construction cost. In this study reliability analysis of a gravity-based foundation concerning...... technique to perform the reliability analysis. The calibrated code-based design approach leads to savings of up to 20% in the concrete foundation volume, depending on the target annual reliability level. The study can form the basis for future optimization on deterministic-based designs for wind turbine...... foundations....

  9. Task analysis and computer aid development for human reliability analysis in nuclear power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoon, W. C.; Kim, H.; Park, H. S.; Choi, H. H.; Moon, J. M.; Heo, J. Y.; Ham, D. H.; Lee, K. K.; Han, B. T. [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Taejeon (Korea)

    2001-04-01

    Importance of human reliability analysis (HRA) that predicts the error's occurrence possibility in a quantitative and qualitative manners is gradually increased by human errors' effects on the system's safety. HRA needs a task analysis as a virtue step, but extant task analysis techniques have the problem that a collection of information about the situation, which the human error occurs, depends entirely on HRA analyzers. The problem makes results of the task analysis inconsistent and unreliable. To complement such problem, KAERI developed the structural information analysis (SIA) that helps to analyze task's structure and situations systematically. In this study, the SIA method was evaluated by HRA experts, and a prototype computerized supporting system named CASIA (Computer Aid for SIA) was developed for the purpose of supporting to perform HRA using the SIA method. Additionally, through applying the SIA method to emergency operating procedures, we derived generic task types used in emergency and accumulated the analysis results in the database of the CASIA. The CASIA is expected to help HRA analyzers perform the analysis more easily and consistently. If more analyses will be performed and more data will be accumulated to the CASIA's database, HRA analyzers can share freely and spread smoothly his or her analysis experiences, and there by the quality of the HRA analysis will be improved. 35 refs., 38 figs., 25 tabs. (Author)

  10. A Review: Passive System Reliability Analysis – Accomplishments and Unresolved Issues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ARUN KUMAR NAYAK

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Reliability assessment of passive safety systems is one of the important issues, since safety of advanced nuclear reactors rely on several passive features. In this context, a few methodologies such as Reliability Evaluation of Passive Safety System (REPAS, Reliability Methods for Passive Safety Functions (RMPS and Analysis of Passive Systems ReliAbility (APSRA have been developed in the past. These methodologies have been used to assess reliability of various passive safety systems. While these methodologies have certain features in common, but they differ in considering certain issues; for example, treatment of model uncertainties, deviation of geometric and process parameters from their nominal values, etc. This paper presents the state of the art on passive system reliability assessment methodologies, the accomplishments and remaining issues. In this review three critical issues pertaining to passive systems performance and reliability have been identified. The first issue is, applicability of best estimate codes and model uncertainty. The best estimate codes based phenomenological simulations of natural convection passive systems could have significant amount of uncertainties, these uncertainties must be incorporated in appropriate manner in the performance and reliability analysis of such systems. The second issue is the treatment of dynamic failure characteristics of components of passive systems. REPAS, RMPS and APSRA methodologies do not consider dynamic failures of components or process, which may have strong influence on the failure of passive systems. The influence of dynamic failure characteristics of components on system failure probability is presented with the help of a dynamic reliability methodology based on Monte Carlo simulation. The analysis of a benchmark problem of Hold-up tank shows the error in failure probability estimation by not considering the dynamism of components. It is thus suggested that dynamic reliability

  11. Dependence assessment in human reliability analysis based on D numbers and AHP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Xinyi; Deng, Xinyang [School of Computer and Information Science, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715 (China); Deng, Yong, E-mail: ydeng@swu.edu.cn [School of Computer and Information Science, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715 (China); Institute of Fundamental and Frontier Sciences, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, Sichuan 610054 (China); Mahadevan, Sankaran [School of Engineering, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN 37235 (United States)

    2017-03-15

    Highlights: • D numbers and AHP are combined to implement dependence assessment in HRA. • A new tool, called D numbers, is used to deal with the uncertainty in HRA. • The proposed method can well address the fuzziness and subjectivity in linguistic assessment. • The proposed method is well applicable in dependence assessment which inherently has a linguistic assessment process. - Abstract: Since human errors always cause heavy loss especially in nuclear engineering, human reliability analysis (HRA) has attracted more and more attention. Dependence assessment plays a vital role in HRA, measuring the dependence degree of human errors. Many researches have been done while still have improvement space. In this paper, a dependence assessment model based on D numbers and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is proposed. Firstly, identify the factors used to measure the dependence level of two human operations. Besides, in terms of the suggested dependence level, determine and quantify the anchor points for each factor. Secondly, D numbers and AHP are adopted in model. Experts evaluate the dependence level of human operations for each factor. Then, the evaluation results are presented as D numbers and fused by D number’s combination rule that can obtain the dependence probability of human operations for each factor. The weights of factors can be determined by AHP. Thirdly, based on the dependence probability for each factor and its corresponding weight, the dependence probability of two human operations and its confidence can be obtained. The proposed method can well address the fuzziness and subjectivity in linguistic assessment. The proposed method is well applicable to assess the dependence degree of human errors in HRA which inherently has a linguistic assessment process.

  12. Stochastic Response and Reliability Analysis of Hysteretic Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mørk, Kim Jørgensen

    During the last 30 years response analysis of structures under random excitation has been studied in detail. These studies are motivated by the fact that most of natures excitations, such as earthquakes, wind and wave loads exhibit randomly fluctuating characters. For safety reasons this randomness...

  13. reliability analysis of a two span floor designed according to ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    The Structural analysis and design of the timber floor system was carried out using deterministic approach ... The cell structure of hardwoods is more complex than ..... [12] BS EN -1-1: Eurocode 5: Design of Timber Structures, Part. 1-1.

  14. System reliability analysis of layered soil slopes using fully specified slip surfaces and genetic algorithms

    OpenAIRE

    Zeng, Peng; Jiménez Rodríguez, Rafael; Jurado Piña, Rafael

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach to identify the fully specified representative slip surfaces (RSSs) of layered soil slopes and to compute their system probability of failure, Pf,s. Spencer's method is used to compute the factors of safety of trial slip surfaces, and the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) is employed to efficiently evaluate their reliability. A custom-designed Genetic Algorithm (GA) is developed to search all the RSSs in only one GA optimization. Taking advantage of the ...

  15. Reliability analysis of the control system of large-scale vertical mixing equipment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    The control system of vertical mixing equipment is a concentrate distributed monitoring system (CDMS).A reliability analysis model was built and its analysis was conducted based on reliability modeling theories such as the graph theory,Markov process,and redundancy theory.Analysis and operational results show that the control system can meet all technical requirements for high energy composite solid propellant manufacturing.The reliability performance of the control system can be considerably improved by adopting a control strategy combined with the hot spared redundancy of the primary system and the cold spared redundancy of the emergent one.The reliability performance of the control system can be also improved by adopting the redundancy strategy or improving the quality of each component and cable of the system.

  16. Structured information analysis for human reliability analysis of emergency tasks in nuclear power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, Won Dea; Kim, Jae Whan; Park, Jin Kyun; Ha, Jae Joo [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejeon (Korea)

    2000-02-01

    More than twenty HRA (Human Reliability Analysis) methodologies have been developed and used for the safety analysis in nuclear field during the past two decades. However, no methodology appears to have universally been accepted, as various limitations have been raised for more widely used ones. One of the most important limitations of conventional HRA is insufficient analysis of the task structure and problem space. To resolve this problem, we suggest SIA (Structured Information Analysis) for HRA. The proposed SIA consists of three parts. The first part is the scenario analysis that investigates the contextual information related to the given task on the basis of selected scenarios. The second is the goals-means analysis to define the relations between the cognitive goal and task steps. The third is the cognitive function analysis module that identifies the cognitive patterns and information flows involved in the task. Through the three-part analysis, systematic investigation is made possible from the macroscopic information on the tasks to the microscopic information on the specific cognitive processes. It is expected that analysts can attain a structured set of information that helps to predict the types and possibility of human error in the given task. 48 refs., 12 figs., 11 tabs. (Author)

  17. Structured information analysis for human reliability analysis of emergency tasks in nuclear power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, Won Dea; Kim, Jae Whan; Park, Jin Kyun; Ha, Jae Joo [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejeon (Korea)

    2000-02-01

    More than twenty HRA (Human Reliability Analysis) methodologies have been developed and used for the safety analysis in nuclear field during the past two decades. However, no methodology appears to have universally been accepted, as various limitations have been raised for more widely used ones. One of the most important limitations of conventional HRA is insufficient analysis of the task structure and problem space. To resolve this problem, we suggest SIA (Structured Information Analysis) for HRA. The proposed SIA consists of three parts. The first part is the scenario analysis that investigates the contextual information related to the given task on the basis of selected scenarios. The second is the goals-means analysis to define the relations between the cognitive goal and task steps. The third is the cognitive function analysis module that identifies the cognitive patterns and information flows involved in the task. Through the three-part analysis, systematic investigation is made possible from the macroscopic information on the tasks to the microscopic information on the specific cognitive processes. It is expected that analysts can attain a structured set of information that helps to predict the types and possibility of human error in the given task. 48 refs., 12 figs., 11 tabs. (Author)

  18. Dependence Assessment in Human Reliability Analysis Using Evidence Theory and AHP.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Xiaoyan; Mahadevan, Sankaran; Xu, Peida; Deng, Yong

    2015-07-01

    Dependence assessment among human errors in human reliability analysis (HRA) is an important issue. Many of the dependence assessment methods in HRA rely heavily on the expert's opinion, thus are subjective and may sometimes cause inconsistency. In this article, we propose a computational model based on the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory (DSET) and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method to handle dependence in HRA. First, dependence influencing factors among human tasks are identified and the weights of the factors are determined by experts using the AHP method. Second, judgment on each factor is given by the analyst referring to anchors and linguistic labels. Third, the judgments are represented as basic belief assignments (BBAs) and are integrated into a fused BBA by weighted average combination in DSET. Finally, the CHEP is calculated based on the fused BBA. The proposed model can deal with ambiguity and the degree of confidence in the judgments, and is able to reduce the subjectivity and improve the consistency in the evaluation process.

  19. Multidisciplinary Inverse Reliability Analysis Based on Collaborative Optimization with Combination of Linear Approximations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin-Jia Meng

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Multidisciplinary reliability is an important part of the reliability-based multidisciplinary design optimization (RBMDO. However, it usually has a considerable amount of calculation. The purpose of this paper is to improve the computational efficiency of multidisciplinary inverse reliability analysis. A multidisciplinary inverse reliability analysis method based on collaborative optimization with combination of linear approximations (CLA-CO is proposed in this paper. In the proposed method, the multidisciplinary reliability assessment problem is first transformed into a problem of most probable failure point (MPP search of inverse reliability, and then the process of searching for MPP of multidisciplinary inverse reliability is performed based on the framework of CLA-CO. This method improves the MPP searching process through two elements. One is treating the discipline analyses as the equality constraints in the subsystem optimization, and the other is using linear approximations corresponding to subsystem responses as the replacement of the consistency equality constraint in system optimization. With these two elements, the proposed method realizes the parallel analysis of each discipline, and it also has a higher computational efficiency. Additionally, there are no difficulties in applying the proposed method to problems with nonnormal distribution variables. One mathematical test problem and an electronic packaging problem are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  20. Automated migration analysis based on cell texture: method & reliability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chittenden Thomas W

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In this paper, we present and validate a way to measure automatically the extent of cell migration based on automated examination of a series of digital photographs. It was designed specifically to identify the impact of Second Hand Smoke (SHS on endothelial cell migration but has broader applications. The analysis has two stages: (1 preprocessing of image texture, and (2 migration analysis. Results The output is a graphic overlay that indicates the front lines of cell migration superimposed on each original image, with automated reporting of the distance traversed vs. time. Expert preference compares to manual placement of leading edge shows complete equivalence of automated vs. manual leading edge definition for cell migration measurement. Conclusion Our method is indistinguishable from careful manual determinations of cell front lines, with the advantages of full automation, objectivity, and speed.

  1. Sensitivity analysis for reliable design verification of nuclear turbosets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zentner, Irmela, E-mail: irmela.zentner@edf.f [Lamsid-Laboratory for Mechanics of Aging Industrial Structures, UMR CNRS/EDF, 1, avenue Du General de Gaulle, 92141 Clamart (France); EDF R and D-Structural Mechanics and Acoustics Department, 1, avenue Du General de Gaulle, 92141 Clamart (France); Tarantola, Stefano [Joint Research Centre of the European Commission-Institute for Protection and Security of the Citizen, T.P. 361, 21027 Ispra (Italy); Rocquigny, E. de [Ecole Centrale Paris-Applied Mathematics and Systems Department (MAS), Grande Voie des Vignes, 92 295 Chatenay-Malabry (France)

    2011-03-15

    In this paper, we present an application of sensitivity analysis for design verification of nuclear turbosets. Before the acquisition of a turbogenerator, energy power operators perform independent design assessment in order to assure safe operating conditions of the new machine in its environment. Variables of interest are related to the vibration behaviour of the machine: its eigenfrequencies and dynamic sensitivity to unbalance. In the framework of design verification, epistemic uncertainties are preponderant. This lack of knowledge is due to inexistent or imprecise information about the design as well as to interaction of the rotating machinery with supporting and sub-structures. Sensitivity analysis enables the analyst to rank sources of uncertainty with respect to their importance and, possibly, to screen out insignificant sources of uncertainty. Further studies, if necessary, can then focus on predominant parameters. In particular, the constructor can be asked for detailed information only about the most significant parameters.

  2. A Reliable Method for Rhythm Analysis during Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Ayala

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Interruptions in cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR compromise defibrillation success. However, CPR must be interrupted to analyze the rhythm because although current methods for rhythm analysis during CPR have high sensitivity for shockable rhythms, the specificity for nonshockable rhythms is still too low. This paper introduces a new approach to rhythm analysis during CPR that combines two strategies: a state-of-the-art CPR artifact suppression filter and a shock advice algorithm (SAA designed to optimally classify the filtered signal. Emphasis is on designing an algorithm with high specificity. The SAA includes a detector for low electrical activity rhythms to increase the specificity, and a shock/no-shock decision algorithm based on a support vector machine classifier using slope and frequency features. For this study, 1185 shockable and 6482 nonshockable 9-s segments corrupted by CPR artifacts were obtained from 247 patients suffering out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. The segments were split into a training and a test set. For the test set, the sensitivity and specificity for rhythm analysis during CPR were 91.0% and 96.6%, respectively. This new approach shows an important increase in specificity without compromising the sensitivity when compared to previous studies.

  3. A Reliable Method for Rhythm Analysis during Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayala, U.; Irusta, U.; Ruiz, J.; Eftestøl, T.; Kramer-Johansen, J.; Alonso-Atienza, F.; Alonso, E.; González-Otero, D.

    2014-01-01

    Interruptions in cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) compromise defibrillation success. However, CPR must be interrupted to analyze the rhythm because although current methods for rhythm analysis during CPR have high sensitivity for shockable rhythms, the specificity for nonshockable rhythms is still too low. This paper introduces a new approach to rhythm analysis during CPR that combines two strategies: a state-of-the-art CPR artifact suppression filter and a shock advice algorithm (SAA) designed to optimally classify the filtered signal. Emphasis is on designing an algorithm with high specificity. The SAA includes a detector for low electrical activity rhythms to increase the specificity, and a shock/no-shock decision algorithm based on a support vector machine classifier using slope and frequency features. For this study, 1185 shockable and 6482 nonshockable 9-s segments corrupted by CPR artifacts were obtained from 247 patients suffering out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. The segments were split into a training and a test set. For the test set, the sensitivity and specificity for rhythm analysis during CPR were 91.0% and 96.6%, respectively. This new approach shows an important increase in specificity without compromising the sensitivity when compared to previous studies. PMID:24895621

  4. Probability maps as a measure of reliability for indivisibility analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joksić Dušan

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Digital terrain models (DTMs represent segments of spatial data bases related to presentation of terrain features and landforms. Square grid elevation models (DEMs have emerged as the most widely used structure during the past decade because of their simplicity and simple computer implementation. They have become an important segment of Topographic Information Systems (TIS, storing natural and artificial landscape in forms of digital models. This kind of a data structure is especially suitable for morph metric terrain evaluation and analysis, which is very important in environmental and urban planning and Earth surface modeling applications. One of the most often used functionalities of Geographical information systems software packages is indivisibility or view shed analysis of terrain. Indivisibility determination from analog topographic maps may be very exhausting, because of the large number of profiles that have to be extracted and compared. Terrain representation in form of the DEMs databases facilitates this task. This paper describes simple algorithm for terrain view shed analysis by using DEMs database structures, taking into consideration the influence of uncertainties of such data to the results obtained thus far. The concept of probability maps is introduced as a mean for evaluation of results, and is presented as thematic display.

  5. Reliability analysis of M/G/1 queues with general retrial times and server breakdowns

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Jinting

    2006-01-01

    This paper concerns the reliability issues as well as queueing analysis of M/G/1 retrial queues with general retrial times and server subject to breakdowns and repairs. We assume that the server is unreliable and customers who find the server busy or down are queued in the retrial orbit in accordance with a first-come-first-served discipline. Only the customer at the head of the orbit queue is allowed for access to the server. The necessary and sufficient condition for the system to be stable is given. Using a supplementary variable method, we obtain the Laplace-Stieltjes transform of the reliability function of the server and a steady state solution for both queueing and reliability measures of interest. Some main reliability indexes, such as the availability, failure frequency, and the reliability function of the server, are obtained.

  6. Fatigue damage reliability analysis for Nanjing Yangtze river bridge using structural health monitoring data

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HE Xu-hui; CHEN Zheng-qing; YU Zhi-wu; HUANG Fang-lin

    2006-01-01

    To evaluate the fatigue damage reliability of critical members of the Nanjing Yangtze river bridge, according to the stress-number curve and Miner's rule, the corresponding expressions for calculating the structural fatigue damage reliability were derived. Fatigue damage reliability analysis of some critical members of the Nanjing Yangtze river bridge was carried out by using the strain-time histories measured by the structural health monitoring system of the bridge. The corresponding stress spectra were obtained by the real-time rain-flow counting method.Results of fatigue damage were calculated respectively by the reliability method at different reliability and compared with Miner's rule. The results show that the fatigue damage of critical members of the Nanjing Yangtze river bridge is very small due to its low live-load stress level.

  7. Quality Metrics and Reliability Analysis of Laser Communication System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Arockia Bazil Raj

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Beam wandering is the main cause for major power loss in laser communication. To analyse this prerequisite at our environment, a 155 Mbps data transmission experimental setup is built with necessary optoelectronic components for the link range of 0.5 km at an altitude of 15.25 m. A neuro-controller is developed inside the FPGA and used to stabilise the received beam at the centre of detector plane. The Q-factor and bit error rate variation profiles are calculated using the signal statistics obtained from the eye-diagram. The performance improvements on the laser communication system due to the incorporation of beam wandering mitigation control are investigated and discussed in terms of various communication quality assessment key parameters.Defence Science Journal, Vol. 66, No. 2, March 2016, pp. 175-185, DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.14429/dsj.66.9707

  8. Strategy for Synthesis of Flexible Heat Exchanger Networks Embedded with System Reliability Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YI Dake; HAN Zhizhong; WANG Kefeng; YAO Pingjing

    2013-01-01

    System reliability can produce a strong influence on the performance of the heat exchanger network (HEN).In this paper,an optimization method with system reliability analysis for flexible HEN by genetic/simulated annealing algorithms (GA/SA) is presented.Initial flexible arrangements of HEN is received by pseudo-temperature enthalpy diagram.For determining system reliability of HEN,the connections of heat exchangers(HEXs) and independent subsystems in the HEN are analyzed by the connection sequence matrix(CSM),and the system reliability is measured by the independent subsystem including maximum number of HEXs in the HEN.As for the HEN that did not meet system reliability,HEN decoupling is applied and the independent subsystems in the HEN are changed by removing decoupling HEX,and thus the system reliability is elevated.After that,heat duty redistribution based on the relevant elements of the heat load loops and HEX areas are optimized in GA/SA.Then,the favorable network configuration,which matches both the most economical cost and system reliability criterion,is located.Moreover,particular features belonging to suitable decoupling HEX are extracted from calculations.Corresponding numerical example is presented to verify that the proposed strategy is effective to formulate optimal flexible HEN with system reliability measurement.

  9. The rate of force development scaling factor (RFD-SF): protocol, reliability, and muscle comparisons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellumori, Maria; Jaric, Slobodan; Knight, Christopher A

    2011-07-01

    Performing a set of isometric muscular contractions to varied amplitudes with instructions to generate force most rapidly reveals a strong linear relationship between peak forces (PF) achieved and corresponding peak rates of force development (RFD). The slope of this relationship, termed the RFD scaling factor (RFD-SF), quantifies the extent to which RFD scales with contraction amplitude. Such scaling allows relative invariance in the time required to reach PF regardless of contraction size. Considering the increasing use of this relationship to study quickness and consequences of slowness in older adults and movement disorders, our purpose was to further develop the protocol to measure RFD-SF. Fifteen adults (19-28 years) performed 125 rapid isometric contractions to a variety of force levels in elbow extensors, index finger abductors, and knee extensors, on 2 days. Data were used to determine (1) how the number of pulses affects computation of the RFD-SF, (2) day-to-day reliability of the RFD-SF, and (3) the nature of RFD-SF differences between diverse muscle groups. While sensitive to the number of pulses used in its computation (P50 pulses (ICC>.7) and more so with 100-125 pulses (ICC=.8-.92). Despite differences in size and function across muscles, RFD-SF was generally similar (i.e., only 8.5% greater in elbow extensors than in index finger abductors and knee extensors; P=.049). Results support this protocol as a reliable means to assess how RFD scales with PF in rapid isometric contractions as well as a simple, non-invasive probe into neuromuscular health.

  10. Application of response surface method for contact fatigue reliability analysis of spur gear with consideration of EHL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    胡贇; 刘少军; 丁晟; 廖雅诗

    2015-01-01

    In order to consider the effects of elastohydrodynamic lubrication (EHL) on contact fatigue reliability of spur gear, an accurate and efficient method that combines with response surface method (RSM) and first order second moment method (FOSM) was developed for estimating the contact fatigue reliability of spur gear under EHL. The mechanical model of contact stress analysis of spur gear under EHL was established, in which the oil film pressure was mapped into hertz contact zone. Considering the randomness of EHL, material properties and fatigue strength correction factors, the proposed method was used to analyze the contact fatigue reliability of spur gear under EHL. Compared with the results of 1.5×105 by traditional Monte-Carlo, the difference between the two failure probability results calculated by the above mentioned methods is 2.2×10−4,the relative error of the failure probability results is 26.8%, and time-consuming only accounts for 0.14% of the traditional Monte-Carlo method (MCM). Sensitivity analysis results are in very good agreement with practical cognition. Analysis results show that the proposed method is precise and efficient, and could correctly reflect the influence of EHL on contact fatigue reliability of spur gear.

  11. Report on the analysis of field data relating to the reliability of solar hot water systems.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Menicucci, David F. (Building Specialists, Inc., Albuquerque, NM)

    2011-07-01

    Utilities are overseeing the installations of thousand of solar hot water (SHW) systems. Utility planners have begun to ask for quantitative measures of the expected lifetimes of these systems so that they can properly forecast their loads. This report, which augments a 2009 reliability analysis effort by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), addresses this need. Additional reliability data have been collected, added to the existing database, and analyzed. The results are presented. Additionally, formal reliability theory is described, including the bathtub curve, which is the most common model to characterize the lifetime reliability character of systems, and for predicting failures in the field. Reliability theory is used to assess the SNL reliability database. This assessment shows that the database is heavily weighted with data that describe the reliability of SHW systems early in their lives, during the warranty period. But it contains few measured data to describe the ends of SHW systems lives. End-of-life data are the most critical ones to define sufficiently the reliability of SHW systems in order to answer the questions that the utilities pose. Several ideas are presented for collecting the required data, including photometric analysis of aerial photographs of installed collectors, statistical and neural network analysis of energy bills from solar homes, and the development of simple algorithms to allow conventional SHW controllers to announce system failures and record the details of the event, similar to how aircraft black box recorders perform. Some information is also presented about public expectations for the longevity of a SHW system, information that is useful in developing reliability goals.

  12. Reliability and life-cycle analysis of deteriorating systems

    CERN Document Server

    Sánchez-Silva, Mauricio

    2016-01-01

    This book compiles and critically discusses modern engineering system degradation models and their impact on engineering decisions. In particular, the authors focus on modeling the uncertain nature of degradation considering both conceptual discussions and formal mathematical formulations. It also describes the basics concepts and the various modeling aspects of life-cycle analysis (LCA).  It highlights the role of degradation in LCA and defines optimum design and operation parameters. Given the relationship between operational decisions and the performance of the system’s condition over time, maintenance models are also discussed. The concepts and models presented have applications in a large variety of engineering fields such as Civil, Environmental, Industrial, Electrical and Mechanical engineering. However, special emphasis is given to problems related to large infrastructure systems. The book is intended to be used both as a reference resource for researchers and practitioners and as an academic text ...

  13. Reliability Analysis of Repairable Systems Using Stochastic Point Processes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    TAN Fu-rong; JIANG Zhi-bin; BAI Tong-shuo

    2008-01-01

    In order to analyze the failure data from repairable systems, the homogeneous Poisson process(HPP) is usually used. In general, HPP cannot be applied to analyze the entire life cycle of a complex, re-pairable system because the rate of occurrence of failures (ROCOF) of the system changes over time rather thanremains stable. However, from a practical point of view, it is always preferred to apply the simplest methodto address problems and to obtain useful practical results. Therefore, we attempted to use the HPP model toanalyze the failure data from real repairable systems. A graphic method and the Laplace test were also usedin the analysis. Results of numerical applications show that the HPP model may be a useful tool for the entirelife cycle of repairable systems.

  14. Transforming Rubrics Using Factor Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baryla, Ed; Shelley, Gary; Trainor, William

    2012-01-01

    Student learning and program effectiveness is often assessed using rubrics. While much time and effort may go into their creation, it is equally important to assess how effective and efficient the rubrics actually are in terms of measuring competencies over a number of criteria. This study demonstrates the use of common factor analysis to identify…

  15. Reliability analysis of onboard laser ranging systems for control systems by movement of spacecraft

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. I. Starovoitov

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to study and find the ways to improve the reliability of onboard laser ranging system (LRS used to control the spacecraft rendezvous and descent. The onboard LRS can be implemented with optical-mechanical scanner and without it. The paper analyses the key factors, which influence on the reliability of both LRS. Reliability of LRS is pretty much defined by the reliability of the laser source and its radiation mode. Solid-state diode-pumped lasers are primarily used as a radiation source. The radiation mode, which is defined by requirements for measurement errors of range and speed affect their reliability. The basic assumption is that the resource of solid state lasers is determined by the number pulses of pumping diodes. The paper investigates the influence of radiation mode of solid-state laser on the reliability function when measuring a passive spacecraft rendezvous dosing velocity using a differential method. With the measurement error, respectively, 10 m for range and 0.6 m/s for velocity a reliability function of 0.99 has been achieved. Reducing the measurement error of velocity to 0.5 m/s either results in reduced reliability function <0.99 or it is necessary to reduce the initial error of measurement range up to 3.5...5 m to correspond to the reliability function ≥ 0.995. For the optomechanical scanner-based LRS the maximum pulse repetition frequency versus the range has been obtained. This dependence has been used as a basis to define the reliability function. The paper investigates the influence of moving parts on the reliability of scanning LRS with sealed or unsealed optomechanical unit. As a result, it has been found that the exception of moving parts is justified provided that manufacturing the sealed optomechanical LRS unit is impossible. In this case, the reliability function increases from 0.99 to 0.9999. When sealing the opto-mechanical unit, the same increase in reliability is achieved through

  16. A Validation of the French Version of the Attitudes to Aging Questionnaire (AAQ: Factor Structure, Reliability and Validity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manon Marquet

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The Attitudes to Aging Questionnaire (AAQ was developed to measure attitudes toward the aging process as a personal experience from the perspective of older people. The present study aimed to validate the French version of the AAQ. Participants and methods: This study examined factor structure, acceptability, reliability and validity of the AAQ’s French version in 238 Belgian adults aged 60 years or older. In addition, participants provided information on demographics, self-perception of their mental and physical health (single items, quality of life (WHOQOL-OLD and social desirability (DS-36.  Results: Exploratory Factor Analysis produced a three-factor solution accounting for 36.9% of the variance. No floor or ceiling effects were found. The internal consistency, measured by Cronbach’s alpha coefficients for the AAQ subscales were 0.62 (Physical Change, 0.74 (Psychological Growth, and 0.75 (Psychosocial Loss. A priori expected associations were found between AAQ subscales, self-reported health and quality of life, indicating good convergent validity. The scale also showed a good ability to discriminate between people with lower and higher education levels, supporting adequate known-groups validity. Finally, we confirmed the need to control for social desirability biases when assessing self-reported attitudes toward one’s own aging. Conclusion: The data support the usefulness of the French version of the AAQ for the assessment of attitudes toward their own aging in older people.

  17. Mechanical system reliability analysis using a combination of graph theory and Boolean function

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tang, J

    2001-04-01

    A new method based on graph theory and Boolean function for assessing reliability of mechanical systems is proposed. The procedure for this approach consists of two parts. By using the graph theory, the formula for the reliability of a mechanical system that considers the interrelations of subsystems or components is generated. Use of the Boolean function to examine the failure interactions of two particular elements of the system, followed with demonstrations of how to incorporate such failure dependencies into the analysis of larger systems, a constructive algorithm for quantifying the genuine interconnections between the subsystems or components is provided. The combination of graph theory and Boolean function provides an effective way to evaluate the reliability of a large, complex mechanical system. A numerical example demonstrates that this method an effective approaches in system reliability analysis.

  18. Analysis and Application of Mechanical System Reliability Model Based on Copula Function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    An Hai

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available There is complicated correlations in mechanical system. By using the advantages of copula function to solve the related issues, this paper proposes the mechanical system reliability model based on copula function. And makes a detailed research for the serial and parallel mechanical system model and gets their reliability function respectively. Finally, the application research is carried out for serial mechanical system reliability model to prove its validity by example. Using Copula theory to make mechanical system reliability modeling and its expectation, studying the distribution of the random variables (marginal distribution of the mechanical product’ life and associated structure of variables separately, can reduce the difficulty of multivariate probabilistic modeling and analysis to make the modeling and analysis process more clearly.

  19. Technology development of maintenance optimization and reliability analysis for safety features in nuclear power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Tae Woon; Choi, Seong Soo; Lee, Dong Gue; Kim, Young Il

    1999-12-01

    The reliability data management system (RDMS) for safety systems of PHWR type plants has been developed and utilized in the reliability analysis of the special safety systems of Wolsong Unit 1,2 with plant overhaul period lengthened. The RDMS is developed for the periodic efficient reliability analysis of the safety systems of Wolsong Unit 1,2. In addition, this system provides the function of analyzing the effects on safety system unavailability if the test period of a test procedure changes as well as the function of optimizing the test periods of safety-related test procedures. The RDMS can be utilized in handling the requests of the regulatory institute actively with regard to the reliability validation of safety systems. (author)

  20. Methodological Approach for Performing Human Reliability and Error Analysis in Railway Transportation System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabio De Felice

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Today, billions of dollars are being spent annually world wide to develop, manufacture, and operate transportation system such trains, ships, aircraft, and motor vehicles. Around 70 to 90 percent oftransportation crashes are, directly or indirectly, the result of human error. In fact, with the development of technology, system reliability has increased dramatically during the past decades, while human reliability has remained unchanged over the same period. Accordingly, human error is now considered as the most significant source of accidents or incidents in safety-critical systems. The aim of the paper is the proposal of a methodological approach to improve the transportation system reliability and in particular railway transportation system. The methodology presented is based on Failure Modes, Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA and Human Reliability Analysis (HRA.

  1. Analysis of whisker-toughened CMC structural components using an interactive reliability model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duffy, Stephen F.; Palko, Joseph L.

    1992-01-01

    Realizing wider utilization of ceramic matrix composites (CMC) requires the development of advanced structural analysis technologies. This article focuses on the use of interactive reliability models to predict component probability of failure. The deterministic William-Warnke failure criterion serves as theoretical basis for the reliability model presented here. The model has been implemented into a test-bed software program. This computer program has been coupled to a general-purpose finite element program. A simple structural problem is presented to illustrate the reliability model and the computer algorithm.

  2. Reliability analysis of tunnel surrounding rock stability by Monte-Carlo method

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XI Jia-mi; YANG Geng-she

    2008-01-01

    Discussed advantages of improved Monte-Carlo method and feasibility aboutproposed approach applying in reliability analysis for tunnel surrounding rock stability. Onthe basis of deterministic parsing for tunnel surrounding rock, reliability computing methodof surrounding rock stability was derived from improved Monte-Carlo method. The com-puting method considered random of related parameters, and therefore satisfies relativityamong parameters. The proposed method can reasonably determine reliability of sur-rounding rock stability. Calculation results show that this method is a scientific method indiscriminating and checking surrounding rock stability.

  3. Latency Analysis of Systems with Multiple Interfaces for Ultra-Reliable M2M Communication

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jimmy Jessen; Popovski, Petar

    2016-01-01

    One of the ways to satisfy the requirements of ultra-reliable low latency communication for mission critical Machine-type Communications (MTC) applications is to integrate multiple communication interfaces. In order to estimate the performance in terms of latency and reliability...... of such an integrated communication system, we propose an analysis framework that combines traditional reliability models with technology-specific latency probability distributions. In our proposed model we demonstrate how failure correlation between technologies can be taken into account. We show for the considered...

  4. Reliability and error analysis on xenon/CT CBF

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Z. [Diversified Diagnostic Products, Inc., Houston, TX (United States)

    2000-02-01

    This article provides a quantitative error analysis of a simulation model of xenon/CT CBF in order to investigate the behavior and effect of different types of errors such as CT noise, motion artifacts, lower percentage of xenon supply, lower tissue enhancements, etc. A mathematical model is built to simulate these errors. By adjusting the initial parameters of the simulation model, we can scale the Gaussian noise, control the percentage of xenon supply, and change the tissue enhancement with different kVp settings. The motion artifact will be treated separately by geometrically shifting the sequential CT images. The input function is chosen from an end-tidal xenon curve of a practical study. Four kinds of cerebral blood flow, 10, 20, 50, and 80 cc/100 g/min, are examined under different error environments and the corresponding CT images are generated following the currently popular timing protocol. The simulated studies will be fed to a regular xenon/CT CBF system for calculation and evaluation. A quantitative comparison is given to reveal the behavior and effect of individual error resources. Mixed error testing is also provided to inspect the combination effect of errors. The experiment shows that CT noise is still a major error resource. The motion artifact affects the CBF results more geometrically than quantitatively. Lower xenon supply has a lesser effect on the results, but will reduce the signal/noise ratio. The lower xenon enhancement will lower the flow values in all areas of brain. (author)

  5. Reliability of Foundation Pile Based on Settlement and a Parameter Sensitivity Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Shujun Zhang; Luo Zhong; Zhijun Xu

    2016-01-01

    Based on the uncertainty analysis to calculation model of settlement, the formula of reliability index of foundation pile is derived. Based on this formula, the influence of coefficient of variation of the calculated settlement at pile head, coefficient of variation of the permissible limit of the settlement, coefficient of variation of the measured settlement, safety coefficient, and the mean value of calculation model coefficient on reliability is analyzed. The results indicate that (1) hig...

  6. Investigation of Common Symptoms of Cancer and Reliability Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    Objective: To identify cancer distribution and treatment requirements, a questionnaire on cancer patients was conducted. It was our objective to validate a series of symptoms commonly used in traditional Chinese medicine (TCM). Methods: The M. D. Anderson Symptom Assessment Inventory (MDASI) was used with 10 more TCM items added. Questions regarding TCM application requested in cancer care were also asked. A multi-center, cross-sectional study was conducted in 340 patients from 4 hospitals in Beijing and Dalian. SPSS and Excel software were adopted for statistical analysis. The questionnaire was self-evaluated with the Cronbach's alpha score. Results: The most common symptoms were fatigue 89.4%, sleep disturbance 74.4%, dry mouth 72.9%, poor appetite 72.9%, and difficulty remembering 71.2%. These symptoms affected work (89.8%), mood (82.6%),and activity (76.8%), resulting in poor quality of life. Eighty percent of the patients wanted to regulate the body with TCM. Almost 100% of the patients were interested in acquiring knowledge regarding the integrated traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) and Western medicine (WM) in the treatment and rehabilitation of cancer. Cronbach's alpha score indicated that there was acceptable internal consistency within both the MDASI and TCM items, 0.86 for MDASI, 0.78 for TCM, and 0.90 for MDASI-TCM (23 items). Conclusions: Fatigue, sleep disturbance, dry mouth, poor appetite, and difficulty remembering are the most common symptoms in cancer patients. These greatly affect the quality of life for these patients. Patients expressed a strong desire for TCM holistic regulation. The MDASI and its TCM-adapted model could be a critical tool for the quantitative study of TCM symptoms.

  7. Reliability analysis of diesel engine crankshaft based on 2D stress strength interference model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    A 2D stress strength interference model (2D-SSIM) considering that the fatigue reliability of engineering structural components has close relationship to load asymmetric ratio and its variability to some extent is put forward. The principle, geometric schematic and limit state equation of this model are presented. Reliability evaluation for a kind of diesel engine crankshaft was made based on this theory, in which multi-axial loading fatigue criteria was employed. Because more important factors, i.e.stress asymmetric ratio and its variability, are considered, it theoretically can make more accurate evaluation for structural component reliability than the traditional interference model. Correspondingly, a Monte-Carlo Method simulation solution is also given. The computation suggests that this model can yield satisfactory reliability evaluation.

  8. Reliability and Validity of Quantitative Video Analysis of Baseball Pitching Motion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oyama, Sakiko; Sosa, Araceli; Campbell, Rebekah; Correa, Alexandra

    2017-02-01

    Video recordings are used to quantitatively analyze pitchers' techniques. However, reliability and validity of such analysis is unknown. The purpose of the study was to investigate the reliability and validity of joint and segment angles identified during a pitching motion using video analysis. Thirty high school baseball pitchers participated. The pitching motion was captured using 2 high-speed video cameras and a motion capture system. Two raters reviewed the videos to digitize the body segments to calculate 2-dimensional angles. The corresponding 3-dimensional angles were calculated from the motion capture data. Intrarater reliability, interrater reliability, and validity of the 2-dimensional angles were determined. The intrarater and interrater reliability of the 2-dimensional angles were high for most variables. The trunk contralateral flexion at maximum external rotation was the only variable with high validity. Trunk contralateral flexion at ball release, trunk forward flexion at foot contact and ball release, shoulder elevation angle at foot contact, and maximum shoulder external rotation had moderate validity. Two-dimensional angles at the shoulder, elbow, and trunk could be measured with high reliability. However, the angles are not necessarily anatomically correct, and thus use of quantitative video analysis should be limited to angles that can be measured with good validity.

  9. Stochastic data-flow graph models for the reliability analysis of communication networks and computer systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, D.J.

    1988-01-01

    The literature is abundant with combinatorial reliability analysis of communication networks and fault-tolerant computer systems. However, it is very difficult to formulate reliability indexes using combinatorial methods. These limitations have led to the development of time-dependent reliability analysis using stochastic processes. In this research, time-dependent reliability-analysis techniques using Dataflow Graphs (DGF) are developed. The chief advantages of DFG models over other models are their compactness, structural correspondence with the systems, and general amenability to direct interpretation. This makes the verification of the correspondence of the data-flow graph representation to the actual system possible. Several DGF models are developed and used to analyze the reliability of communication networks and computer systems. Specifically, Stochastic Dataflow graphs (SDFG), both the discrete-time and the continuous time models are developed and used to compute time-dependent reliability of communication networks and computer systems. The repair and coverage phenomenon of communication networks is also analyzed using SDFG models.

  10. Multiobject Reliability Analysis of Turbine Blisk with Multidiscipline under Multiphysical Field Interaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chun-Yi Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available To study accurately the influence of the deformation, stress, and strain of turbine blisk on the performance of aeroengine, the comprehensive reliability analysis of turbine blisk with multiple disciplines and multiple objects was performed based on multiple response surface method (MRSM and fluid-thermal-solid coupling technique. Firstly, the basic thought of MRSM was introduced. And then the mathematical model of MRSM was established with quadratic polynomial. Finally, the multiple reliability analyses of deformation, stress, and strain of turbine blisk were completed under multiphysical field coupling by the MRSM, and the comprehensive performance of turbine blisk was evaluated. From the reliability analysis, it is demonstrated that the reliability degrees of the deformation, stress, and strain for turbine blisk are 0.9942, 0.9935, 0.9954, and 0.9919, respectively, when the allowable deformation, stress, and strain are 3.7 × 10−3 m, 1.07 × 109 Pa, and 1.12 × 10−2 m/m, respectively; besides, the comprehensive reliability degree of turbine blisk is 0.9919, which basically satisfies the engineering requirement of aeroengine. The efforts of this paper provide a promising approach method for multidiscipline multiobject reliability analysis.

  11. Segmental analysis of indocyanine green pharmacokinetics for the reliable diagnosis of functional vascular insufficiency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Yujung; Lee, Jungsul; An, Yuri; Jeon, Jongwook; Choi, Chulhee

    2011-03-01

    Accurate and reliable diagnosis of functional insufficiency of peripheral vasculature is essential since Raynaud phenomenon (RP), most common form of peripheral vascular insufficiency, is commonly associated with systemic vascular disorders. We have previously demonstrated that dynamic imaging of near-infrared fluorophore indocyanine green (ICG) can be a noninvasive and sensitive tool to measure tissue perfusion. In the present study, we demonstrated that combined analysis of multiple parameters, especially onset time and modified Tmax which means the time from onset of ICG fluorescence to Tmax, can be used as a reliable diagnostic tool for RP. To validate the method, we performed the conventional thermographic analysis combined with cold challenge and rewarming along with ICG dynamic imaging and segmental analysis. A case-control analysis demonstrated that segmental pattern of ICG dynamics in both hands was significantly different between normal and RP case, suggesting the possibility of clinical application of this novel method for the convenient and reliable diagnosis of RP.

  12. Analysis of strain gage reliability in F-100 jet engine testing at NASA Lewis Research Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holanda, R.

    1983-01-01

    A reliability analysis was performed on 64 strain gage systems mounted on the 3 rotor stages of the fan of a YF-100 engine. The strain gages were used in a 65 hour fan flutter research program which included about 5 hours of blade flutter. The analysis was part of a reliability improvement program. Eighty-four percent of the strain gages survived the test and performed satisfactorily. A post test analysis determined most failure causes. Five failures were caused by open circuits, three failed gages showed elevated circuit resistance, and one gage circuit was grounded. One failure was undetermined.

  13. Problems Related to Use of Some Terms in System Reliability Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadezda Hanusova

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with problems of using dependability terms, defined in actual standard STN IEC 50 (191: International electrotechnical dictionary, chap. 191: Dependability and quality of service (1993, in a technical systems dependability analysis. The goal of the paper is to find a relation between terms introduced in the mentioned standard and used in the technical systems dependability analysis and rules and practices used in a system analysis of the system theory. Description of a part of the system life cycle related to reliability is used as a starting point. The part of a system life cycle is described by the state diagram and reliability relevant therms are assigned.

  14. An overview of the evolution of human reliability analysis in the context of probabilistic risk assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bley, Dennis C. (Buttonwood Consulting Inc., Oakton, VA); Lois, Erasmia (U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC); Kolaczkowski, Alan M. (Science Applications International Corporation, Eugene, OR); Forester, John Alan; Wreathall, John (John Wreathall and Co., Dublin, OH); Cooper, Susan E. (U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC)

    2009-01-01

    Since the Reactor Safety Study in the early 1970's, human reliability analysis (HRA) has been evolving towards a better ability to account for the factors and conditions that can lead humans to take unsafe actions and thereby provide better estimates of the likelihood of human error for probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs). The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of recent reviews of operational events and advances in the behavioral sciences that have impacted the evolution of HRA methods and contributed to improvements. The paper discusses the importance of human errors in complex human-technical systems, examines why humans contribute to accidents and unsafe conditions, and discusses how lessons learned over the years have changed the perspective and approach for modeling human behavior in PRAs of complicated domains such as nuclear power plants. It is argued that it has become increasingly more important to understand and model the more cognitive aspects of human performance and to address the broader range of factors that have been shown to influence human performance in complex domains. The paper concludes by addressing the current ability of HRA to adequately predict human failure events and their likelihood.

  15. Conditional probability Markov chain simulation based reliability analysis method for nonnormal variables

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Based on fast Markov chain simulation for generating the samples distributed in failure region and saddlepoint approximation(SA) technique,an efficient reliability analysis method is presented to evaluate the small failure probability of non-linear limit state function(LSF) with non-normal variables.In the presented method,the failure probability of the non-linear LSF is transformed into a product of the failure probability of the introduced linear LSF and a feature ratio factor.The introduced linear LSF which approximately has the same maximum likelihood points as the non-linear LSF is constructed and its failure probability can be calculated by SA technique.The feature ratio factor,which can be evaluated on the basis of multiplicative rule of probability,exhibits the relation between the failure probability of the non-linear LSF and that of the linear LSF,and it can be fast computed by utilizing the Markov chain algorithm to directly simulate the samples distributed in the failure regions of the non-linear LSF and those of the linear LSF.Moreover,the expectation and variance of the failure probability estimate are derived.The results of several examples demonstrate that the presented method has wide applicability,can be easily implemented,and possesses high precision and high efficiency.

  16. Content Analysis in Mass Communication: Assessment and Reporting of Intercoder Reliability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lombard, Matthew; Snyder-Duch, Jennifer; Bracken, Cheryl Campanella

    2002-01-01

    Reviews the importance of intercoder agreement for content analysis in mass communication research. Describes several indices for calculating this type of reliability (varying in appropriateness, complexity, and apparent prevalence of use). Presents a content analysis of content analyses reported in communication journals to establish how…

  17. Weak Satiety Responsiveness Is a Reliable Trait Associated with Hedonic Risk Factors for Overeating among Women

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalton, Michelle; Hollingworth, Sophie; Blundell, John; Finlayson, Graham

    2015-01-01

    Some individuals exhibit a weak satiety response to food and may be susceptible to overconsumption. The current study identified women showing consistently low or high satiety responses to standardised servings of food across four separate days and compared them on behavioural, psychological and physiological risk factors for overeating and future weight gain. In a crossover design, 30 female participants (age: 28.0 ± 10.6; body mass index (BMI): 23.1 ± 3.0) recorded sensations of hunger in the post-prandial period following four graded energy level breakfasts. Satiety quotients were calculated to compare individuals on satiety responsiveness across conditions. Body composition, resting metabolic rate (RMR), energy intake, food reward and craving, and eating behaviour traits were assessed under controlled laboratory conditions. A distinct low satiety phenotype (LSP) was identified with good consistency across separate study days. These individuals had a higher RMR, greater levels of disinhibition and reported feeling lower control over food cravings. Further, they consumed more energy and exhibited greater wanting for high-fat food. The inverse pattern of characteristics was observed in those exhibiting a consistently high satiety phenotype (HSP). Weak satiety responsiveness is a reliable trait identifiable using the satiety quotient. The LSP was characterised by distinct behavioural and psychological characteristics indicating a risk for overeating, compared to HSP. PMID:26404367

  18. Weak Satiety Responsiveness Is a Reliable Trait Associated with Hedonic Risk Factors for Overeating among Women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michelle Dalton

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Some individuals exhibit a weak satiety response to food and may be susceptible to overconsumption. The current study identified women showing consistently low or high satiety responses to standardised servings of food across four separate days and compared them on behavioural, psychological and physiological risk factors for overeating and future weight gain. In a crossover design, 30 female participants (age: 28.0 ± 10.6; body mass index (BMI: 23.1 ± 3.0 recorded sensations of hunger in the post-prandial period following four graded energy level breakfasts. Satiety quotients were calculated to compare individuals on satiety responsiveness across conditions. Body composition, resting metabolic rate (RMR, energy intake, food reward and craving, and eating behaviour traits were assessed under controlled laboratory conditions. A distinct low satiety phenotype (LSP was identified with good consistency across separate study days. These individuals had a higher RMR, greater levels of disinhibition and reported feeling lower control over food cravings. Further, they consumed more energy and exhibited greater wanting for high-fat food. The inverse pattern of characteristics was observed in those exhibiting a consistently high satiety phenotype (HSP. Weak satiety responsiveness is a reliable trait identifiable using the satiety quotient. The LSP was characterised by distinct behavioural and psychological characteristics indicating a risk for overeating, compared to HSP.

  19. Weak Satiety Responsiveness Is a Reliable Trait Associated with Hedonic Risk Factors for Overeating among Women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalton, Michelle; Hollingworth, Sophie; Blundell, John; Finlayson, Graham

    2015-09-04

    Some individuals exhibit a weak satiety response to food and may be susceptible to overconsumption. The current study identified women showing consistently low or high satiety responses to standardised servings of food across four separate days and compared them on behavioural, psychological and physiological risk factors for overeating and future weight gain. In a crossover design, 30 female participants (age: 28.0 ± 10.6; body mass index (BMI): 23.1 ± 3.0) recorded sensations of hunger in the post-prandial period following four graded energy level breakfasts. Satiety quotients were calculated to compare individuals on satiety responsiveness across conditions. Body composition, resting metabolic rate (RMR), energy intake, food reward and craving, and eating behaviour traits were assessed under controlled laboratory conditions. A distinct low satiety phenotype (LSP) was identified with good consistency across separate study days. These individuals had a higher RMR, greater levels of disinhibition and reported feeling lower control over food cravings. Further, they consumed more energy and exhibited greater wanting for high-fat food. The inverse pattern of characteristics was observed in those exhibiting a consistently high satiety phenotype (HSP). Weak satiety responsiveness is a reliable trait identifiable using the satiety quotient. The LSP was characterised by distinct behavioural and psychological characteristics indicating a risk for overeating, compared to HSP.

  20. Dynamic Scapular Movement Analysis: Is It Feasible and Reliable in Stroke Patients during Arm Elevation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Baets, Liesbet; Van Deun, Sara; Desloovere, Kaat; Jaspers, Ellen

    2013-01-01

    Knowledge of three-dimensional scapular movements is essential to understand post-stroke shoulder pain. The goal of the present work is to determine the feasibility and the within and between session reliability of a movement protocol for three-dimensional scapular movement analysis in stroke patients with mild to moderate impairment, using an optoelectronic measurement system. Scapular kinematics of 10 stroke patients and 10 healthy controls was recorded on two occasions during active anteflexion and abduction from 0° to 60° and from 0° to 120°. All tasks were executed unilaterally and bilaterally. The protocol’s feasibility was first assessed, followed by within and between session reliability of scapular total range of motion (ROM), joint angles at start position and of angular waveforms. Additionally, measurement errors were calculated for all parameters. Results indicated that the protocol was generally feasible for this group of patients and assessors. Within session reliability was very good for all tasks. Between sessions, scapular angles at start position were measured reliably for most tasks, while scapular ROM was more reliable during the 120° tasks. In general, scapular angles showed higher reliability during anteflexion compared to abduction, especially for protraction. Scapular lateral rotations resulted in smallest measurement errors. This study indicates that scapular kinematics can be measured reliably and with precision within one measurement session. In case of multiple test sessions, further methodological optimization is required for this protocol to be suitable for clinical decision-making and evaluation of treatment efficacy. PMID:24244414

  1. Dynamic scapular movement analysis: is it feasible and reliable in stroke patients during arm elevation?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liesbet De Baets

    Full Text Available Knowledge of three-dimensional scapular movements is essential to understand post-stroke shoulder pain. The goal of the present work is to determine the feasibility and the within and between session reliability of a movement protocol for three-dimensional scapular movement analysis in stroke patients with mild to moderate impairment, using an optoelectronic measurement system. Scapular kinematics of 10 stroke patients and 10 healthy controls was recorded on two occasions during active anteflexion and abduction from 0° to 60° and from 0° to 120°. All tasks were executed unilaterally and bilaterally. The protocol's feasibility was first assessed, followed by within and between session reliability of scapular total range of motion (ROM, joint angles at start position and of angular waveforms. Additionally, measurement errors were calculated for all parameters. Results indicated that the protocol was generally feasible for this group of patients and assessors. Within session reliability was very good for all tasks. Between sessions, scapular angles at start position were measured reliably for most tasks, while scapular ROM was more reliable during the 120° tasks. In general, scapular angles showed higher reliability during anteflexion compared to abduction, especially for protraction. Scapular lateral rotations resulted in smallest measurement errors. This study indicates that scapular kinematics can be measured reliably and with precision within one measurement session. In case of multiple test sessions, further methodological optimization is required for this protocol to be suitable for clinical decision-making and evaluation of treatment efficacy.

  2. Reliability analysis of kinematic accuracy for the elastic slider-crank mechanism

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    TUO Yaofei; CHEN Jianjun; ZHANG Chijiang; CHEN Yongqin

    2007-01-01

    This paper deals with the static and dynamic output kinematic accuracy of a group of elastic slider-crank mechanisms with the same design parameters by taking the bar length,the joint-gaps,the mass density,and the sectional and the physical parameters as random variables.According to the principle of linear pile-up of small displacement,the static and dynamic output kinematic errors are synthesized,and the reliability model of the kinematic accuracy of the mechanism is built.Through an example,a study of the influencing factors on the reliability of the output kinematic accuracy of the mechanism is made.The results obtained reveal the following facts:with the increase of the crank's rotating speed,the dynamic elastic deformation of the mechanism becomes the principal factor that greatly affects the reliability of the output kinematic accuracy of the mechanism.

  3. Human Factors in Financial Trading: An Analysis of Trading Incidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leaver, Meghan; Reader, Tom W

    2016-09-01

    This study tests the reliability of a system (FINANS) to collect and analyze incident reports in the financial trading domain and is guided by a human factors taxonomy used to describe error in the trading domain. Research indicates the utility of applying human factors theory to understand error in finance, yet empirical research is lacking. We report on the development of the first system for capturing and analyzing human factors-related issues in operational trading incidents. In the first study, 20 incidents are analyzed by an expert user group against a referent standard to establish the reliability of FINANS. In the second study, 750 incidents are analyzed using distribution, mean, pathway, and associative analysis to describe the data. Kappa scores indicate that categories within FINANS can be reliably used to identify and extract data on human factors-related problems underlying trading incidents. Approximately 1% of trades (n = 750) lead to an incident. Slip/lapse (61%), situation awareness (51%), and teamwork (40%) were found to be the most common problems underlying incidents. For the most serious incidents, problems in situation awareness and teamwork were most common. We show that (a) experts in the trading domain can reliably and accurately code human factors in incidents, (b) 1% of trades incur error, and (c) poor teamwork skills and situation awareness underpin the most critical incidents. This research provides data crucial for ameliorating risk within financial trading organizations, with implications for regulation and policy. © 2016, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

  4. Estimating Reliability of Disturbances in Satellite Time Series Data Based on Statistical Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Z.-G.; Tang, P.; Zhou, M.

    2016-06-01

    Normally, the status of land cover is inherently dynamic and changing continuously on temporal scale. However, disturbances or abnormal changes of land cover — caused by such as forest fire, flood, deforestation, and plant diseases — occur worldwide at unknown times and locations. Timely detection and characterization of these disturbances is of importance for land cover monitoring. Recently, many time-series-analysis methods have been developed for near real-time or online disturbance detection, using satellite image time series. However, the detection results were only labelled with "Change/ No change" by most of the present methods, while few methods focus on estimating reliability (or confidence level) of the detected disturbances in image time series. To this end, this paper propose a statistical analysis method for estimating reliability of disturbances in new available remote sensing image time series, through analysis of full temporal information laid in time series data. The method consists of three main steps. (1) Segmenting and modelling of historical time series data based on Breaks for Additive Seasonal and Trend (BFAST). (2) Forecasting and detecting disturbances in new time series data. (3) Estimating reliability of each detected disturbance using statistical analysis based on Confidence Interval (CI) and Confidence Levels (CL). The method was validated by estimating reliability of disturbance regions caused by a recent severe flooding occurred around the border of Russia and China. Results demonstrated that the method can estimate reliability of disturbances detected in satellite image with estimation error less than 5% and overall accuracy up to 90%.

  5. Reliability reallocation models as a support tools in traffic safety analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bačkalić, Svetlana; Jovanović, Dragan; Bačkalić, Todor

    2014-04-01

    One of the essential questions placed before a road authority is where to act first, i.e. which road sections should be treated in order to achieve the desired level of reliability of a particular road, while this is at the same time the subject of this research. The paper shows how the reliability reallocation theory can be applied in safety analysis of a road consisting of sections. The model has been successfully tested using two apportionment techniques - ARINC and the minimum effort algorithm. The given methods were applied in the traffic safety analysis as a basic step, for the purpose of achieving a higher level of reliability. The previous methods used for selecting hazardous locations do not provide precise values for the required frequency of accidents, i.e. the time period between the occurrences of two accidents. In other words, they do not allow for the establishment of a connection between a precise demand for increased reliability (expressed as a percentage) and the selection of particular road sections for further analysis. The paper shows that reallocation models can also be applied in road safety analysis, or more precisely, as part of the measures for increasing their level of safety. A tool has been developed for selecting road sections for treatment on the basis of a precisely defined increase in the level of reliability of a particular road, i.e. the mean time between the occurrences of two accidents.

  6. Reliability analysis of supporting pressure in tunnels based on three-dimensional failure mechanism

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    罗卫华; 李闻韬

    2016-01-01

    Based on nonlinear failure criterion, a three-dimensional failure mechanism of the possible collapse of deep tunnel is presented with limit analysis theory. Support pressure is taken into consideration in the virtual work equation performed under the upper bound theorem. It is necessary to point out that the properties of surrounding rock mass plays a vital role in the shape of collapsing rock mass. The first order reliability method and Monte Carlo simulation method are then employed to analyze the stability of presented mechanism. Different rock parameters are considered random variables to value the corresponding reliability index with an increasing applied support pressure. The reliability indexes calculated by two methods are in good agreement. Sensitivity analysis was performed and the influence of coefficient variation of rock parameters was discussed. It is shown that the tensile strength plays a much more important role in reliability index than dimensionless parameter, and that small changes occurring in the coefficient of variation would make great influence of reliability index. Thus, significant attention should be paid to the properties of surrounding rock mass and the applied support pressure to maintain the stability of tunnel can be determined for a given reliability index.

  7. The Monte Carlo Simulation Method for System Reliability and Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Zio, Enrico

    2013-01-01

    Monte Carlo simulation is one of the best tools for performing realistic analysis of complex systems as it allows most of the limiting assumptions on system behavior to be relaxed. The Monte Carlo Simulation Method for System Reliability and Risk Analysis comprehensively illustrates the Monte Carlo simulation method and its application to reliability and system engineering. Readers are given a sound understanding of the fundamentals of Monte Carlo sampling and simulation and its application for realistic system modeling.   Whilst many of the topics rely on a high-level understanding of calculus, probability and statistics, simple academic examples will be provided in support to the explanation of the theoretical foundations to facilitate comprehension of the subject matter. Case studies will be introduced to provide the practical value of the most advanced techniques.   This detailed approach makes The Monte Carlo Simulation Method for System Reliability and Risk Analysis a key reference for senior undergra...

  8. A NEW TWO-POINT ADAPTIVENONLINEAR APPROXIMATION METHOD FOR RELIABILITY ANALYSIS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LiuShutian

    2004-01-01

    A two-point adaptive nonlinear approximation (referred to as TANA4) suitable for reliability analysis is proposed. Transformed and normalized random variables in probabilistic analysis could become negative and pose a challenge to the earlier developed two-point approximations; thus a suitable method that can address this issue is needed. In the method proposed, the nonlinearity indices of intervening variables are limited to integers. Then, on the basis of the present method, an improved sequential approximation of the limit state surface for reliability analysis is presented. With the gradient projection method, the data points for the limit state surface approximation are selected on the original limit state surface, which effectively represents the nature of the original response function. On the basis of this new approximation, the reliability is estimated using a first-order second-moment method. Various examples, including both structural and non-structural ones, are presented to show the effectiveness of the method proposed.

  9. An Evidential Reasoning-Based CREAM to Human Reliability Analysis in Maritime Accident Process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Bing; Yan, Xinping; Wang, Yang; Soares, C Guedes

    2017-01-09

    This article proposes a modified cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) for estimating the human error probability in the maritime accident process on the basis of an evidential reasoning approach. This modified CREAM is developed to precisely quantify the linguistic variables of the common performance conditions and to overcome the problem of ignoring the uncertainty caused by incomplete information in the existing CREAM models. Moreover, this article views maritime accident development from the sequential perspective, where a scenario- and barrier-based framework is proposed to describe the maritime accident process. This evidential reasoning-based CREAM approach together with the proposed accident development framework are applied to human reliability analysis of a ship capsizing accident. It will facilitate subjective human reliability analysis in different engineering systems where uncertainty exists in practice.

  10. Structure buckling and non-probabilistic reliability analysis of supercavitating vehicles

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    AN Wei-guang; ZHOU Ling; AN Hai

    2009-01-01

    To perform structure buckling and reliability analysis on supercavitating vehicles with high velocity in the submarine, supercavitating vehicles were simplified as variable cross section beam firstly. Then structural buckling analysis of supercavitating vehicles with or without engine thrust was conducted, and the structural buckling safety margin equation of supercavitating vehicles was established. The indefinite information was de-scribed by interval set and the structure reliability analysis was performed by using non-probabilistic reliability method. Considering interval variables as random variables which satisfy uniform distribution, the Monte-Carlo method was used to calculate the non-probabilistic failure degree. Numerical examples of supercavitating vehi-cles were presented. Under different ratios of base diameter to cavitator diameter, the change tendency of non-probabilistic failure degree of structural buckling of supereavitating vehicles with or without engine thrust was studied along with the variety of speed.

  11. The application of emulation techniques in the analysis of highly reliable, guidance and control computer systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Migneault, Gerard E.

    1987-01-01

    Emulation techniques can be a solution to a difficulty that arises in the analysis of the reliability of guidance and control computer systems for future commercial aircraft. Described here is the difficulty, the lack of credibility of reliability estimates obtained by analytical modeling techniques. The difficulty is an unavoidable consequence of the following: (1) a reliability requirement so demanding as to make system evaluation by use testing infeasible; (2) a complex system design technique, fault tolerance; (3) system reliability dominated by errors due to flaws in the system definition; and (4) elaborate analytical modeling techniques whose precision outputs are quite sensitive to errors of approximation in their input data. Use of emulation techniques for pseudo-testing systems to evaluate bounds on the parameter values needed for the analytical techniques is then discussed. Finally several examples of the application of emulation techniques are described.

  12. Reliability analysis of shoulder balance measures: comparison of the 4 available methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Jae-Young; Suh, Seung-Woo; Yang, Jae-Hyuk; Park, Si-Young; Han, Ji-Hoon

    2013-12-15

    Observational study with 3 examiners. To compare the reliability of shoulder balance measurement methods. There are several measurement methods for shoulder balance. No reliability analysis has been performed despite the clinical importance of this measurement. Whole spine posteroanterior radiographs (n = 270) were collected to compare the reliability of the 4 shoulder balance measures in patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis. Each radiograph was measured twice by each of the 3 examiners using 4 measurement methods. The data were analyzed statistically to determine the inter- and intraobserver reliability. Overall, the 4 radiographical methods showed an excellent intraclass correlation coefficient regardless of severity in intraobserver comparisons (>0.904). In addition, the mean absolute difference values in all methods were low and were comparatively similar (0.445, mean absolute difference 0.810 and >0.787, respectively) regardless of severity. In addition, the mean absolute difference values in the clavicular angle method were lower (balance measurement method clinically. 3.

  13. Reliability prediction of large fuel cell stack based on structure stress analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, L. F.; Liu, B.; Wu, C. W.

    2017-09-01

    The aim of this paper is to improve the reliability of Proton Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) stack by designing the clamping force and the thickness difference between the membrane electrode assembly (MEA) and the gasket. The stack reliability is directly determined by the component reliability, which is affected by the material property and contact stress. The component contact stress is a random variable because it is usually affected by many uncertain factors in the production and clamping process. We have investigated the influences of parameter variation coefficient on the probability distribution of contact stress using the equivalent stiffness model and the first-order second moment method. The optimal contact stress to make the component stay in the highest level reliability is obtained by the stress-strength interference model. To obtain the optimal contact stress between the contact components, the optimal thickness of the component and the stack clamping force are optimally designed. Finally, a detailed description is given how to design the MEA and gasket dimensions to obtain the highest stack reliability. This work can provide a valuable guidance in the design of stack structure for a high reliability of fuel cell stack.

  14. Exploratory matrix factorization for PET image analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kodewitz, A; Keck, I R; Tomé, A M; Lang, E W

    2010-01-01

    Features are extracted from PET images employing exploratory matrix factorization techniques such as nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF). Appropriate features are fed into classifiers such as a support vector machine or a random forest tree classifier. An automatic feature extraction and classification is achieved with high classification rate which is robust and reliable and can help in an early diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease.

  15. Kuhn-Tucker optimization based reliability analysis for probabilistic finite elements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, W. K.; Besterfield, G.; Lawrence, M.; Belytschko, T.

    1988-01-01

    The fusion of probability finite element method (PFEM) and reliability analysis for fracture mechanics is considered. Reliability analysis with specific application to fracture mechanics is presented, and computational procedures are discussed. Explicit expressions for the optimization procedure with regard to fracture mechanics are given. The results show the PFEM is a very powerful tool in determining the second-moment statistics. The method can determine the probability of failure or fracture subject to randomness in load, material properties and crack length, orientation, and location.

  16. Assessing the Reliability of Digitalized Cephalometric Analysis in Comparison with Manual Cephalometric Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farooq, Mohammed Umar; Khan, Mohd. Asadullah; Imran, Shahid; Qureshi, Arshad; Ahmed, Syed Afroz; Kumar, Sujan; Rahman, Mohd. Aziz Ur

    2016-01-01

    Introduction For more than seven decades orthodontist used cephalometric analysis as one of the main diagnostic tools which can be performed manually or by software. The use of computers in treatment planning is expected to avoid errors and make it less time consuming with effective evaluation and high reproducibility. Aim This study was done to evaluate and compare the accuracy and reliability of cephalometric measurements between computerized method of direct digital radiographs and conventional tracing. Materials and Methods Digital and conventional hand tracing cephalometric analysis of 50 patients were done. Thirty anatomical landmarks were defined on each radiograph by a single investi-gator, 5 skeletal analysis (Steiner, Wits, Tweeds, McNamara, Rakosi Jarabaks) and 28 variables were calculated. Results The variables showed consistency between the two methods except for 1-NA, Y-axis and interincisal angle measurements which were higher in manual tracing and higher facial axis angle in digital tracing. Conclusion Most of the commonly used measurements were accurate except some measurements between the digital tracing with FACAD® and manual methods. The advantages of digital imaging such as enhancement, transmission, archiving and low radiation dosages makes it to be preferred over conventional method in daily use. PMID:27891451

  17. Application of SAW method for multiple-criteria comparative analysis of the reliability of heat supply organizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akhmetova, I. G.; Chichirova, N. D.

    2016-12-01

    Heat supply is the most energy-consuming sector of the economy. Approximately 30% of all used primary fuel-and-energy resources is spent on municipal heat-supply needs. One of the key indicators of activity of heat-supply organizations is the reliability of an energy facility. The reliability index of a heat supply organization is of interest to potential investors for assessing risks when investing in projects. The reliability indices established by the federal legislation are actually reduced to a single numerical factor, which depends on the number of heat-supply outages in connection with disturbances in operation of heat networks and the volume of their resource recovery in the calculation year. This factor is rather subjective and may change in a wide range during several years. A technique is proposed for evaluating the reliability of heat-supply organizations with the use of the simple additive weighting (SAW) method. The technique for integrated-index determination satisfies the following conditions: the reliability level of the evaluated heat-supply system is represented maximum fully and objectively; the information used for the reliability-index evaluation is easily available (is located on the Internet in accordance with demands of data-disclosure standards). For reliability estimation of heat-supply organizations, the following indicators were selected: the wear of equipment of thermal energy sources, the wear of heat networks, the number of outages of supply of thermal energy (heat carrier due to technological disturbances on heat networks per 1 km of heat networks), the number of outages of supply of thermal energy (heat carrier due to technologic disturbances on thermal energy sources per 1 Gcal/h of installed power), the share of expenditures in the cost of thermal energy aimed at recovery of the resource (renewal of fixed assets), coefficient of renewal of fixed assets, and a coefficient of fixed asset retirement. A versatile program is developed

  18. Reliability analysis and prediction of mixed mode load using Markov Chain Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikabdullah, N.; Singh, S. S. K.; Alebrahim, R.; Azizi, M. A.; K, Elwaleed A.; Noorani, M. S. M.

    2014-06-01

    The aim of this paper is to present the reliability analysis and prediction of mixed mode loading by using a simple two state Markov Chain Model for an automotive crankshaft. The reliability analysis and prediction for any automotive component or structure is important for analyzing and measuring the failure to increase the design life, eliminate or reduce the likelihood of failures and safety risk. The mechanical failures of the crankshaft are due of high bending and torsion stress concentration from high cycle and low rotating bending and torsional stress. The Markov Chain was used to model the two states based on the probability of failure due to bending and torsion stress. In most investigations it revealed that bending stress is much serve than torsional stress, therefore the probability criteria for the bending state would be higher compared to the torsion state. A statistical comparison between the developed Markov Chain Model and field data was done to observe the percentage of error. The reliability analysis and prediction was derived and illustrated from the Markov Chain Model were shown in the Weibull probability and cumulative distribution function, hazard rate and reliability curve and the bathtub curve. It can be concluded that Markov Chain Model has the ability to generate near similar data with minimal percentage of error and for a practical application; the proposed model provides a good accuracy in determining the reliability for the crankshaft under mixed mode loading.

  19. Reliability analysis and prediction of mixed mode load using Markov Chain Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nikabdullah, N. [Department of Mechanical and Materials Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia and Institute of Space Science (ANGKASA), Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (Malaysia); Singh, S. S. K.; Alebrahim, R.; Azizi, M. A. [Department of Mechanical and Materials Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (Malaysia); K, Elwaleed A. [Institute of Space Science (ANGKASA), Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (Malaysia); Noorani, M. S. M. [School of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (Malaysia)

    2014-06-19

    The aim of this paper is to present the reliability analysis and prediction of mixed mode loading by using a simple two state Markov Chain Model for an automotive crankshaft. The reliability analysis and prediction for any automotive component or structure is important for analyzing and measuring the failure to increase the design life, eliminate or reduce the likelihood of failures and safety risk. The mechanical failures of the crankshaft are due of high bending and torsion stress concentration from high cycle and low rotating bending and torsional stress. The Markov Chain was used to model the two states based on the probability of failure due to bending and torsion stress. In most investigations it revealed that bending stress is much serve than torsional stress, therefore the probability criteria for the bending state would be higher compared to the torsion state. A statistical comparison between the developed Markov Chain Model and field data was done to observe the percentage of error. The reliability analysis and prediction was derived and illustrated from the Markov Chain Model were shown in the Weibull probability and cumulative distribution function, hazard rate and reliability curve and the bathtub curve. It can be concluded that Markov Chain Model has the ability to generate near similar data with minimal percentage of error and for a practical application; the proposed model provides a good accuracy in determining the reliability for the crankshaft under mixed mode loading.

  20. Application of FTA Method to Reliability Analysis of Vacuum Resin Shot Dosing Equipment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    Faults of vacuum resin shot dosing equipment are studied systematically and the fault tree of the system is constructed by using the fault tree analysis(FTA) method. Then the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the tree is carried out, respectively, and according to the results of the analysis, the measures to improve the system are worked out and implemented. As a result, the reliability of the equipment is enhanced greatly.

  1. Region of Interest Correction Factors Improve Reliability of Diffusion Imaging Measures Within and Across Scanners and Field Strengths

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venkatraman, Vijay K; Gonzalez, Christopher E.; Landman, Bennett; Goh, Joshua; Reiter, David A.; An, Yang; Resnick, Susan M.

    2017-01-01

    Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) measures are commonly used as imaging markers to investigate individual differences in relation to behavioral and health-related characteristics. However, the ability to detect reliable associations in cross-sectional or longitudinal studies is limited by the reliability of the diffusion measures. Several studies have examined reliability of diffusion measures within (i.e. intra-site) and across (i.e. inter-site) scanners with mixed results. Our study compares the test-retest reliability of diffusion measures within and across scanners and field strengths in cognitively normal older adults with a follow-up interval less than 2.25 years. Intra-class correlation (ICC) and coefficient of variation (CoV) of fractional anisotropy (FA) and mean diffusivity (MD) were evaluated in sixteen white matter and twenty-six gray matter bilateral regions. The ICC for intra-site reliability (0.32 to 0.96 for FA and 0.18 to 0.95 for MD in white matter regions; 0.27 to 0.89 for MD and 0.03 to 0.79 for FA in gray matter regions) and inter-site reliability (0.28 to 0.95 for FA in white matter regions, 0.02 to 0.86 for MD in gray matter regions) with longer follow-up intervals were similar to earlier studies using shorter follow-up intervals. The reliability of across field strengths comparisons was lower than intra- and inter-site reliability. Within and across scanner comparisons showed that diffusion measures were more stable in larger white matter regions (> 1500 mm3). For gray matter regions, the MD measure showed stability in specific regions and was not dependent on region size. Linear correction factor estimated from cross-sectional or longitudinal data improved the reliability across field strengths. Our findings indicate that investigations relating diffusion measures to external variables must consider variable reliability across the distinct regions of interest and that correction factors can be used to improve consistency of measurement across

  2. Aviation Fuel System Reliability and Fail-Safety Analysis. Promising Alternative Ways for Improving the Fuel System Reliability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. S. Shumilov

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with design requirements for an aviation fuel system (AFS, AFS basic design requirements, reliability, and design precautions to avoid AFS failure. Compares the reliability and fail-safety of AFS and aircraft hydraulic system (AHS, considers the promising alternative ways to raise reliability of fuel systems, as well as elaborates recommendations to improve reliability of the pipeline system components and pipeline systems, in general, based on the selection of design solutions.It is extremely advisable to design the AFS and AHS in accordance with Aviation Regulations АП25 and Accident Prevention Guidelines, ICAO (International Civil Aviation Association, which will reduce risk of emergency situations, and in some cases even avoid heavy disasters.ATS and AHS designs should be based on the uniform principles to ensure the highest reliability and safety. However, currently, this principle is not enough kept, and AFS looses in reliability and fail-safety as compared with AHS. When there are the examined failures (single and their combinations the guidelines to ensure the AFS efficiency should be the same as those of norm-adopted in the Regulations АП25 for AHS. This will significantly increase reliability and fail-safety of the fuel systems and aircraft flights, in general, despite a slight increase in AFS mass.The proposed improvements through the use of components redundancy of the fuel system will greatly raise reliability of the fuel system of a passenger aircraft, which will, without serious consequences for the flight, withstand up to 2 failures, its reliability and fail-safety design will be similar to those of the AHS, however, above improvement measures will lead to a slightly increasing total mass of the fuel system.It is advisable to set a second pump on the engine in parallel with the first one. It will run in case the first one fails for some reasons. The second pump, like the first pump, can be driven from the

  3. Measuring Integrated Socioemotional Guidance at School: Factor Structure and Reliability of the Socioemotional Guidance Questionnaire (SEG-Q)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs, Karen; Struyf, Elke

    2013-01-01

    Socioemotional guidance of students has recently become an integral part of education, however no instrument exists to measure integrated socioemotional guidance. This study therefore examines the factor structure and reliability of the Socioemotional Guidance Questionnaire. Psychometric properties of the Socioemotional Guidance Questionnaire and…

  4. A Validation Study of the Dutch Childhood Trauma Questionnaire-Short Form: Factor Structure, Reliability, and Known-Groups Validity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thombs, Brett D.; Bernstein, David P.; Lobbestael, Jill; Arntz, Arnoud

    2009-01-01

    Objective: The 28-item Childhood Trauma Questionnaire-Short Form (CTQ-SF) has been translated into at least 10 different languages. The validity of translated versions of the CTQ-SF, however, has generally not been examined. The objective of this study was to investigate the factor structure, internal consistency reliability, and known-groups…

  5. Investigating the Reliability and Factor Structure of the Self-Regulating Capacity in Vocabulary Learning (SRCvoc in Iranian EFL Context

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maryam Taleb Doaee

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The present study aimed to investigate the reliability and factor structure of the self-regulating capacity in vocabulary learning strategies scale (SRCvoc in the Iranian EFL context. To this end, the original (SRCvoc questionnaire (Tseng, Dornyei, & Schmitt, 2006 was translated into Persian, using a translation/back-translation procedure. Then, the Persian version of the SRCVOC was piloted to 43 high school students and showed acceptable internal consistency reliability (α = .81. In the main phase of the study, a sample of 1167 high school students (grades 9-12 from fifteen high schools in three Iranian cities completed the Persian SRCvoc. Based on the results, the Persian version of the scale demonstrated acceptable internal consistency reliability (α = 0.81. The factor structure of the translated version of the measure was investigated through a series of factor analyses. The results showed that the translated SVLSQ is composed of one dimension with five subcomponents, with a different factor structure as compared to the original questionnaire. The findings of the study suggest that the Persian version of the SVLSQ is a reliable and valid instrument for measuring self-regulatory vocabulary learning strategies in Iran.

  6. Markov Chain Modelling of Reliability Analysis and Prediction under Mixed Mode Loading

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SINGH Salvinder; ABDULLAH Shahrum; NIK MOHAMED Nik Abdullah; MOHD NOORANI Mohd Salmi

    2015-01-01

    The reliability assessment for an automobile crankshaft provides an important understanding in dealing with the design life of the component in order to eliminate or reduce the likelihood of failure and safety risks. The failures of the crankshafts are considered as a catastrophic failure that leads towards a severe failure of the engine block and its other connecting subcomponents. The reliability of an automotive crankshaft under mixed mode loading using the Markov Chain Model is studied. The Markov Chain is modelled by using a two-state condition to represent the bending and torsion loads that would occur on the crankshaft. The automotive crankshaft represents a good case study of a component under mixed mode loading due to the rotating bending and torsion stresses. An estimation of the Weibull shape parameter is used to obtain the probability density function, cumulative distribution function, hazard and reliability rate functions, the bathtub curve and the mean time to failure. The various properties of the shape parameter is used to model the failure characteristic through the bathtub curve is shown. Likewise, an understanding of the patterns posed by the hazard rate onto the component can be used to improve the design and increase the life cycle based on the reliability and dependability of the component. The proposed reliability assessment provides an accurate, efficient, fast and cost effective reliability analysis in contrast to costly and lengthy experimental techniques.

  7. Reliability Analysis of Distributed Grid-connected Photovoltaic System Monitoring Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fu Zhixin

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A large amount of distributed grid-connected Photovoltaic systems have brought new challenges to the dispatching of power network. Real-time monitoring the PV system can efficiently help improve the ability of power network to accept and control the distributed PV systems, and thus mitigate the impulse on the power network imposed by the uncertainty of its power output. To study the reliability of distributed PV monitoring network, it is of great significance to look for a method to build a highly reliable monitoring system, analyze the weak links and key nodes of its monitoring performance in improving the performance of the monitoring network. Firstly a reliability model of PV system was constructed based on WSN technology. Then, in view of the dynamic characteristics of the network’s reliability, fault tree analysis was used to judge any possible reasons that cause the failure of the network and logical relationship between them. Finally, the reliability of the monitoring network was analyzed to figure out the weak links and key nodes. This paper provides guidance to build a stable and reliable monitoring network of a distributed PV system.

  8. Reduced Expanding Load Method for Simulation-Based Structural System Reliability Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    远方; 宋丽娜; 方江生

    2004-01-01

    The current situation and difficulties of the structural system reliability analysis are mentioned. Then on the basis of Monte Carlo method and computer simulation, a new analysis method reduced expanding load method ( RELM ) is presented, which can be used to solve structural reliability problems effectively and conveniently. In this method, the uncertainties of loads, structural material properties and dimensions can be fully considered. If the statistic parameters of stochastic variables are known, by using this method, the probability of failure can be estimated rather accurately. In contrast with traditional approaches, RELM method gives a much better understanding of structural failure frequency and its reliability indexβ is more meaningful. To illustrate this new idea, a specific example is given.

  9. Vibration reliability analysis for aeroengine compressor blade based on support vector machine response surface method

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GAO Hai-feng; BAI Guang-chen

    2015-01-01

    To ameliorate reliability analysis efficiency for aeroengine components, such as compressor blade, support vector machine response surface method (SRSM) is proposed. SRSM integrates the advantages of support vector machine (SVM) and traditional response surface method (RSM), and utilizes experimental samples to construct a suitable response surface function (RSF) to replace the complicated and abstract finite element model. Moreover, the randomness of material parameters, structural dimension and operating condition are considered during extracting data so that the response surface function is more agreeable to the practical model. The results indicate that based on the same experimental data, SRSM has come closer than RSM reliability to approximating Monte Carlo method (MCM); while SRSM (17.296 s) needs far less running time than MCM (10958 s) and RSM (9840 s). Therefore, under the same simulation conditions, SRSM has the largest analysis efficiency, and can be considered a feasible and valid method to analyze structural reliability.

  10. Method and Application for Reliability Analysis of Measurement Data in Nuclear Power Plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yun, Hun; Hwang, Kyeongmo; Lee, Hyoseoung [KEPCO E and C, Seoungnam (Korea, Republic of); Moon, Seungjae [Hanyang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-02-15

    Pipe wall-thinning by flow-accelerated corrosion and various types of erosion is significant damage in secondary system piping of nuclear power plants(NPPs). All NPPs in Korea have management programs to ensure pipe integrity from degradation mechanisms. Ultrasonic test(UT) is widely used for pipe wall thickness measurement. Numerous UT measurements have been performed during scheduled outages. Wall-thinning rates are determined conservatively according to several evaluation methods developed by Electric Power Research Institute(EPRI). The issue of reliability caused by measurement error should be considered in the process of evaluation. The reliability analysis method was developed for single and multiple measurement data in the previous researches. This paper describes the application results of reliability analysis method to real measurement data during scheduled outage and proved its benefits.

  11. An Efficient Approach for the Reliability Analysis of Phased-Mission Systems with Dependent Failures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xing, Liudong; Meshkat, Leila; Donahue, Susan K.

    2006-01-01

    We consider the reliability analysis of phased-mission systems with common-cause failures in this paper. Phased-mission systems (PMS) are systems supporting missions characterized by multiple, consecutive, and nonoverlapping phases of operation. System components may be subject to different stresses as well as different reliability requirements throughout the course of the mission. As a result, component behavior and relationships may need to be modeled differently from phase to phase when performing a system-level reliability analysis. This consideration poses unique challenges to existing analysis methods. The challenges increase when common-cause failures (CCF) are incorporated in the model. CCF are multiple dependent component failures within a system that are a direct result of a shared root cause, such as sabotage, flood, earthquake, power outage, or human errors. It has been shown by many reliability studies that CCF tend to increase a system's joint failure probabilities and thus contribute significantly to the overall unreliability of systems subject to CCF.We propose a separable phase-modular approach to the reliability analysis of phased-mission systems with dependent common-cause failures as one way to meet the above challenges in an efficient and elegant manner. Our methodology is twofold: first, we separate the effects of CCF from the PMS analysis using the total probability theorem and the common-cause event space developed based on the elementary common-causes; next, we apply an efficient phase-modular approach to analyze the reliability of the PMS. The phase-modular approach employs both combinatorial binary decision diagram and Markov-chain solution methods as appropriate. We provide an example of a reliability analysis of a PMS with both static and dynamic phases as well as CCF as an illustration of our proposed approach. The example is based on information extracted from a Mars orbiter project. The reliability model for this orbiter considers

  12. Guidelines for reliability analysis of digital systems in PSA context. Phase 1 status report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Authen, S.; Larsson, J. (Risk Pilot AB, Stockholm (Sweden)); Bjoerkman, K.; Holmberg, J.-E. (VTT, Helsingfors (Finland))

    2010-12-15

    Digital protection and control systems are appearing as upgrades in older nuclear power plants (NPPs) and are commonplace in new NPPs. To assess the risk of NPP operation and to determine the risk impact of digital system upgrades on NPPs, quantitative reliability models are needed for digital systems. Due to the many unique attributes of these systems, challenges exist in systems analysis, modeling and in data collection. Currently there is no consensus on reliability analysis approaches. Traditional methods have clearly limitations, but more dynamic approaches are still in trial stage and can be difficult to apply in full scale probabilistic safety assessments (PSA). The number of PSAs worldwide including reliability models of digital I and C systems are few. A comparison of Nordic experiences and a literature review on main international references have been performed in this pre-study project. The study shows a wide range of approaches, and also indicates that no state-of-the-art currently exists. The study shows areas where the different PSAs agree and gives the basis for development of a common taxonomy for reliability analysis of digital systems. It is still an open matter whether software reliability needs to be explicitly modelled in the PSA. The most important issue concerning software reliability is proper descriptions of the impact that software-based systems has on the dependence between the safety functions and the structure of accident sequences. In general the conventional fault tree approach seems to be sufficient for modelling reactor protection system kind of functions. The following focus areas have been identified for further activities: 1. Common taxonomy of hardware and software failure modes of digital components for common use 2. Guidelines regarding level of detail in system analysis and screening of components, failure modes and dependencies 3. Approach for modelling of CCF between components (including software). (Author)

  13. Influence Factors on the Value of Reliability Estimators in Marketing Research

    OpenAIRE

    2011-01-01

    This paper is a literature review, with a conclusion that leaves open many doors for future research. In the first part are reviewed a series of qualitative and quantitative research characteristics. The second part explains briefly the reliability and validity of instruments used in qualitative and quantitative marketing research. The third part of the paper review a series of articles on the estimators of reliability, on their power, on their strengths and weaknesses. The conclusions of the...

  14. Computing the SKT Reliability of Acyclic Directed Networks Using Factoring Method

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    KONG Fanjia; WANG Guangxing

    1999-01-01

    This paper presents a factoringalgorithm for computing source-to-K terminal (SKT) reliability, the probability that a source s can send message to a specified set of terminals K, in acyclic directed networks (AD-networks) in which bothnodes and edges can fail. Based on Pivotal decomposition theorem, a newformula is derived for computing the SKT reliability of AD-networks. By establishing a topological property of AD-networks, it is shown that the SKT reliability of AD-networks can be computed by recursively applying this formula. Two new Reliability-Preserving Reductions are alsointroduced. The recursion tree generated by the presented algorithm hasat most 2(|V| - |K|- |C|) leaf nodes, where |V| and |K| are the numbers of nodes and terminals, respectively, while |C| is the number of the nodes satisfying some specified conditions. The computation complexity of the new algorithm is O (|E||V|2(|V| -|K| -|C|)) in the worst case, where |E| is the number of edges. Forsource-to-all-terminal (SAT) reliability, its computation complexity is O (|E|). Comparison of the new algorithm with the existing ones indicates that the new algorithm is more efficient for computing the SKT reliability of AD-networks.

  15. Application of Kaplan-Meier analysis in reliability evaluation of products cast from aluminium alloys

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Szymszal

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The article evaluates the reliability of AlSi17CuNiMg alloys using Kaplan-Meier-based technique, very popular as a survival estimation tool in medical science. The main object of survival analysis is a group (or groups of units for which the time of occurrence of an event (failure taking place after some time of waiting is estimated. For example, in medicine, the failure can be patient’s death. In this study, the failure was the specimen fracture during a periodical fatigue test, while the survival time was either the test duration to specimen failure (complete observations, or the test end time (censored observations. The parameters of theoretical survival function were estimated with procedures based on the method of least squares, while typical survival time distribution followed either an exponential or two-parameter Weibull distribution. The goodness of fit of a model survival function was estimated with an incremental chi-square test, based on the values of the log likelihood ratio. The effect of alloy processing history on the run of a survival function was examined. The factors shaping the alloy processing history included: mould type (sand or metal mould, alloy modification process, and heat treatment type (solution heat treatment and ageing.

  16. Hierarchical modeling for reliability analysis using Markov models. B.S./M.S. Thesis - MIT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fagundo, Arturo

    1994-01-01

    Markov models represent an extremely attractive tool for the reliability analysis of many systems. However, Markov model state space grows exponentially with the number of components in a given system. Thus, for very large systems Markov modeling techniques alone become intractable in both memory and CPU time. Often a particular subsystem can be found within some larger system where the dependence of the larger system on the subsystem is of a particularly simple form. This simple dependence can be used to decompose such a system into one or more subsystems. A hierarchical technique is presented which can be used to evaluate these subsystems in such a way that their reliabilities can be combined to obtain the reliability for the full system. This hierarchical approach is unique in that it allows the subsystem model to pass multiple aggregate state information to the higher level model, allowing more general systems to be evaluated. Guidelines are developed to assist in the system decomposition. An appropriate method for determining subsystem reliability is also developed. This method gives rise to some interesting numerical issues. Numerical error due to roundoff and integration are discussed at length. Once a decomposition is chosen, the remaining analysis is straightforward but tedious. However, an approach is developed for simplifying the recombination of subsystem reliabilities. Finally, a real world system is used to illustrate the use of this technique in a more practical context.

  17. What Are You Measuring? Dimensionality and Reliability Analysis of Ability and Speed in Medical School Didactic Examinations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, James J

    2016-01-01

    Summative didactic evaluation often involves multiple choice questions which are then aggregated into exam scores, course scores, and cumulative grade point averages. To be valid, each of these levels should have some relationship to the topic tested (dimensionality) and be sufficiently reproducible between persons (reliability) to justify student ranking. Evaluation of dimensionality is difficult and is complicated by the classic observation that didactic performance involves a generalized component (g) in addition to subtest specific factors. In this work, 183 students were analyzed over two academic years in 13 courses with 44 exams and 3352 questions for both accuracy and speed. Reliability at all levels was good (>0.95). Assessed by bifactor analysis, g effects dominated most levels resulting in essential unidimensionality. Effect sizes on predicted accuracy and speed due to nesting in exams and courses was small. There was little relationship between person ability and person speed. Thus, the hierarchical grading system appears warrented because of its g-dependence.

  18. Johnson Space Center's Risk and Reliability Analysis Group 2008 Annual Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentine, Mark; Boyer, Roger; Cross, Bob; Hamlin, Teri; Roelant, Henk; Stewart, Mike; Bigler, Mark; Winter, Scott; Reistle, Bruce; Heydorn,Dick

    2009-01-01

    The Johnson Space Center (JSC) Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA) Directorate s Risk and Reliability Analysis Group provides both mathematical and engineering analysis expertise in the areas of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), Reliability and Maintainability (R&M) analysis, and data collection and analysis. The fundamental goal of this group is to provide National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) decisionmakers with the necessary information to make informed decisions when evaluating personnel, flight hardware, and public safety concerns associated with current operating systems as well as with any future systems. The Analysis Group includes a staff of statistical and reliability experts with valuable backgrounds in the statistical, reliability, and engineering fields. This group includes JSC S&MA Analysis Branch personnel as well as S&MA support services contractors, such as Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) and SoHaR. The Analysis Group s experience base includes nuclear power (both commercial and navy), manufacturing, Department of Defense, chemical, and shipping industries, as well as significant aerospace experience specifically in the Shuttle, International Space Station (ISS), and Constellation Programs. The Analysis Group partners with project and program offices, other NASA centers, NASA contractors, and universities to provide additional resources or information to the group when performing various analysis tasks. The JSC S&MA Analysis Group is recognized as a leader in risk and reliability analysis within the NASA community. Therefore, the Analysis Group is in high demand to help the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) continue to fly safely, assist in designing the next generation spacecraft for the Constellation Program (CxP), and promote advanced analytical techniques. The Analysis Section s tasks include teaching classes and instituting personnel qualification processes to enhance the professional abilities of our analysts

  19. Reliability and Confidence Interval Analysis of a CMC Turbine Stator Vane

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Gyekenyesi, John P.; Mital, Subodh K.

    2008-01-01

    High temperature ceramic matrix composites (CMC) are being explored as viable candidate materials for hot section gas turbine components. These advanced composites can potentially lead to reduced weight, enable higher operating temperatures requiring less cooling and thus leading to increased engine efficiencies. However, these materials are brittle and show degradation with time at high operating temperatures due to creep as well as cyclic mechanical and thermal loads. In addition, these materials are heterogeneous in their make-up and various factors affect their properties in a specific design environment. Most of these advanced composites involve two- and three-dimensional fiber architectures and require a complex multi-step high temperature processing. Since there are uncertainties associated with each of these in addition to the variability in the constituent material properties, the observed behavior of composite materials exhibits scatter. Traditional material failure analyses employing a deterministic approach, where failure is assumed to occur when some allowable stress level or equivalent stress is exceeded, are not adequate for brittle material component design. Such phenomenological failure theories are reasonably successful when applied to ductile materials such as metals. Analysis of failure in structural components is governed by the observed scatter in strength, stiffness and loading conditions. In such situations, statistical design approaches must be used. Accounting for these phenomena requires a change in philosophy on the design engineer s part that leads to a reduced focus on the use of safety factors in favor of reliability analyses. The reliability approach demands that the design engineer must tolerate a finite risk of unacceptable performance. This risk of unacceptable performance is identified as a component's probability of failure (or alternatively, component reliability). The primary concern of the engineer is minimizing this risk in

  20. A continuous-time Bayesian network reliability modeling and analysis framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boudali, H.; Dugan, J.B.

    2006-01-01

    We present a continuous-time Bayesian network (CTBN) framework for dynamic systems reliability modeling and analysis. Dynamic systems exhibit complex behaviors and interactions between their components; where not only the combination of failure events matters, but so does the sequence ordering of th