Ultra-short period X-ray mirrors: Production and investigation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bibishkin, M.S.; Chkhalo, N.I.; Fraerman, A.A.; Pestov, A.E.; Prokhorov, K.A.; Salashchenko, N.N.; Vainer, Yu.A.

2005-01-01

Technological problems that deal with manufacturing of highly effective ultra-short (d=0.7-3.2 nm) period X-ray multilayer mirrors (MLM) are discussed in the article. In an example of Cr/Sc and W/B 4 C MLM it is experimentally shown, that the problem of periodicity and selectivity for multilayer dispersive X-ray elements has been generally solved by now. However, the problem of short-period MLM reflectivity increase related to existing of transitive borders between layers in structures remains rather urgent. The new technique of tungsten deposition using the RF source in order to decrease roughness in borders is discussed and tested. The results of measurements on wavelengths of 0.154, 0.834 and 1.759 nm are given. The RbAP crystals ordinary used in experiments and short-period W/B 4 C MLM produced are compared. The specular and non-specular characteristics of scattering on the 0.154 nm wavelengths are also measured in order to study transitive borders structures

Southern hemisphere searches for short period pulsars

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Manchester, R.N.

1984-01-01

Two searches of the southern sky for short period pulsars are briefly described. The first, made using the 64-m telescope at Parkes, is sensitive to pulsars with periods greater than about 10 ms and the second, made using the Molonglo radio telescope, has sensitivity down to periods of about 1.5 ms. Four pulsars were found in the Parkes survey and none in the Molonglo survey, although analysis of the latter is as yet incomplete. 10 references, 1 figure, 2 tables

Early and late hot extremes, and elongation of the warm period over Greece

Science.gov (United States)

Founda, Dimitra; Giannakopoulos, Christos; Pierros, Fragiskos

2017-04-01

The eastern Mediterranean has been assigned as one of the most responsive areas in climate change, mainly with respect to the occurrence of warmer and drier conditions. In Greece in particular, observations suggest prominent increases in the summer air temperature which in some areas amount to approximately 1 0C/decade since the mid 1970s, while Regional Climate Models simulate further increases in the near and distant future. These changes are coupled with simultaneous increase in the occurrence of hot extremes. In addition to changes in the frequency and intensity of hot extrems, timing of occurrence is also of special interest. Early heat waves in particular, have been found to increase thermal risk in humans. The study explores variations and trends in timing, namely the date of first and last occurrence of hot extremes within the year, and subsequently the hot extremes period (season), defined as the time interval (number of days) between first and last hot extremes occurrence, over Greece. A case study for the area of Athens covering a longer than 100-years period (1897-2015) was conducted first, which will be extended to other Greek areas. Several heat related climatic indices were used, based either on predefined temperature thresholds such as 'tropical days' (daily maximum air temperature, Tmax >30 0C), 'tropical nights' (daily minimum air temperature, Tmin >20 0C), 'hot days' (Tmax >35 0C), or on local climate statistics such as days with Tmax (or Tmin) > 95th percentile. The analysis revealed significant changes in the period of hot extremes and specifically elongation of the period, attributed to early rather than late hot extremes occurrence. An earlier shift of the first tropical day and the first tropical night occurrence by approximately 2 days/decade was found over the study period. An overall elongation of the 'hot days' season by 2.6 days/decade was also observed, which is more prominent since the early 1980s. Over the last three decades, earlier

Planetary perturbations and the origins of short-period comets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Quinn, T.; Tremaine, S.; Duncan, M.

1990-01-01

To investigate the dynamical plausibility of possible sources for the short-period comets, a representative sample of comet orbits in the field of the sun and the giant planets was integrated, with the aim to determine whether the distribution of orbits from a proposed source that reach observable perihelia (q less than 2.5 AU) matches the observed distribution of short-period orbits. It is found that the majority of the short-period comets, those with orbital period P less than 20 yr (the Jupiter family), cannot arise from isotropic orbits with perihelia near Jupiter's orbit, because the resulting observable comet orbits have the wrong distribution in period, inclination, and argument of perihelion. The simulations also show that Jupiter-family comets cannot arise from isotropic orbits with perihelia in the Uranus-Neptune region. On the other hand, a source of low-inclination Neptune-crossing orbits yields a distribution of observable Jupiter-family comets that is consistent with the data in all respects. These results imply that the Jupiter-family comets arise from a disk source in the outer solar system rather than from the Oort comet cloud. 30 refs

Design issues for cryogenic cooling of short period superconducting undulators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Green, M.A.; Dietderich, D.R.; Marks, S.; Prestemon, S.O.; Schlueter, R.D.

2003-01-01

Superconducting insertion devices, which produce periodic magnetic fields, have been built and installed in a number of synchrotron-light source storage-rings. For the most part, these devices have been wigglers, which have relatively long period lengths. This report concerns itself with the special cryogenic issues associated with short period undulators. The motivation for considering the incorporation of superconducting technology in insertion device designs is to achieve higher magnetic fields than can be achieved with more conventional permanent magnet technology. Since the peak field decreases sharply with increased magnet gap to period ratio, the cryogenic design of the magnet system is crucial. In particular, the insulation required for a warm vacuum bore device is impractical for short period undulators. This report describes the issues that are related to a cold bore (∼4 K) and an intermediate temperature bore (30 to 70 K) designs. The criteria for the use of small cryocoolers for cooling a short period undulator are presented. The problems associated with connecting small coolers to an undulator at 4.2 K are discussed

WRF model sensitivity to land surface model and cumulus parameterization under short-term climate extremes over the southern Great Plains of the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Lisi Pei; Nathan Moore; Shiyuan Zhong; Lifeng Luo; David W. Hyndman; Warren E. Heilman; Zhiqiu. Gao

2014-01-01

Extreme weather and climate events, especially short-term excessive drought and wet periods over agricultural areas, have received increased attention. The Southern Great Plains (SGP) is one of the largest agricultural regions in North America and features the underlying Ogallala-High Plains Aquifer system worth great economic value in large part due to production...

Extreme Temperature Exceedances Change more Rapidly Under Future Warming in Regions of non-Gaussian Short Temperature Distribution Tails

Science.gov (United States)

Loikith, P. C.; Neelin, J. D.; Meyerson, J.

2017-12-01

Regions of shorter-than-Gaussian warm and cold side temperature distribution tails are shown to occur in spatially coherent patterns in the current climate. Under such conditions, warming may be manifested in more complex ways than if the underlying distribution were close to Gaussian. For example, under a uniform warm shift, the simplest prototype for future warming, a location with a short warm side tail would experience a greater increase in extreme warm exceedances compared to if the distribution were Gaussian. Similarly, for a location with a short cold side tail, a uniform warm shift would result in a rapid decrease in extreme cold exceedances. Both scenarios carry major societal and environmental implications including but not limited to negative impacts on human and ecosystem health, agriculture, and the economy. It is therefore important for climate models to be able to realistically reproduce short tails in simulations of historical climate in order to boost confidence in projections of future temperature extremes. Overall, climate models contributing to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project capture many of the principal observed regions of short tails. This suggests the underlying dynamics and physics occur on scales resolved by the models, and helps build confidence in model projections of extremes. Furthermore, most GCMs show more rapid changes in exceedances of extreme temperature thresholds in regions of short tails. Results therefore suggest that the shape of the tails of the underlying temperature distribution is an indicator of how rapidly a location will experience changes to extreme temperature occurrence under future warming.

Effect of short-term subaerial exposure on the cauliflower coral, Pocillopora damicornis, during a simulated extreme low-tide event

KAUST Repository

Castrillón-Cifuentes, Ana Lucia

2017-02-06

There is increased interest in understanding how stress reduces coral resistance to disturbances and how acclimatization increases the ability of corals to resist future stress. Most extreme low tides at Gorgona Island, which expose reef flats to air, do not appear to negatively affect corals because corals usually do not undergo lethal bleaching during such events. However, coral physiology and fitness may be impacted by this phenomenon. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether corals exposed to air have modified biological functions to resist bleaching. To test this, an extreme low-tide event was simulated in the field. Colonies of Pocillopora damicornis were exposed to air for 15 or 40 min over the course of one, two, or three consecutive days. This procedure was repeated for one to three months. Colonies of P. damicornis exposed to air had reduced fecundity, decreased zooxanthellae density, and changed color from darker to lighter. However, the growth rate of exposed corals was similar to that of non-exposed colonies. We conclude that short periods of subaerial exposure during extreme low tides are not lethal to P. damicornis, but negatively affect sexual reproduction, which might have deleterious effects at the population level. The periodic occurrence of extreme low tides in the tropical eastern Pacific may be one factor responsible for the high rate of asexual reproduction (e.g., fragmentation) in pocilloporid corals of this region.

Effect of short-term subaerial exposure on the cauliflower coral, Pocillopora damicornis, during a simulated extreme low-tide event

KAUST Repository

Castrilló n-Cifuentes, Ana Lucia; Lozano-Corté s, Diego; Zapata, Fernando A.

2017-01-01

There is increased interest in understanding how stress reduces coral resistance to disturbances and how acclimatization increases the ability of corals to resist future stress. Most extreme low tides at Gorgona Island, which expose reef flats to air, do not appear to negatively affect corals because corals usually do not undergo lethal bleaching during such events. However, coral physiology and fitness may be impacted by this phenomenon. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether corals exposed to air have modified biological functions to resist bleaching. To test this, an extreme low-tide event was simulated in the field. Colonies of Pocillopora damicornis were exposed to air for 15 or 40 min over the course of one, two, or three consecutive days. This procedure was repeated for one to three months. Colonies of P. damicornis exposed to air had reduced fecundity, decreased zooxanthellae density, and changed color from darker to lighter. However, the growth rate of exposed corals was similar to that of non-exposed colonies. We conclude that short periods of subaerial exposure during extreme low tides are not lethal to P. damicornis, but negatively affect sexual reproduction, which might have deleterious effects at the population level. The periodic occurrence of extreme low tides in the tropical eastern Pacific may be one factor responsible for the high rate of asexual reproduction (e.g., fragmentation) in pocilloporid corals of this region.

Effect of short-term subaerial exposure on the cauliflower coral, Pocillopora damicornis, during a simulated extreme low-tide event

Science.gov (United States)

Castrillón-Cifuentes, Ana Lucia; Lozano-Cortés, Diego F.; Zapata, Fernando A.

2017-06-01

There is increased interest in understanding how stress reduces coral resistance to disturbances and how acclimatization increases the ability of corals to resist future stress. Most extreme low tides at Gorgona Island, which expose reef flats to air, do not appear to negatively affect corals because corals usually do not undergo lethal bleaching during such events. However, coral physiology and fitness may be impacted by this phenomenon. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether corals exposed to air have modified biological functions to resist bleaching. To test this, an extreme low-tide event was simulated in the field. Colonies of Pocillopora damicornis were exposed to air for 15 or 40 min over the course of one, two, or three consecutive days. This procedure was repeated for one to three months. Colonies of P. damicornis exposed to air had reduced fecundity, decreased zooxanthellae density, and changed color from darker to lighter. However, the growth rate of exposed corals was similar to that of non-exposed colonies. We conclude that short periods of subaerial exposure during extreme low tides are not lethal to P. damicornis, but negatively affect sexual reproduction, which might have deleterious effects at the population level. The periodic occurrence of extreme low tides in the tropical eastern Pacific may be one factor responsible for the high rate of asexual reproduction (e.g., fragmentation) in pocilloporid corals of this region.

Existence of extremal periodic solutions for quasilinear parabolic equations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Siegfried Carl

1997-01-01

bounded domain under periodic Dirichlet boundary conditions. Our main goal is to prove the existence of extremal solutions among all solutions lying in a sector formed by appropriately defined upper and lower solutions. The main tools used in the proof of our result are recently obtained abstract results on nonlinear evolution equations, comparison and truncation techniques and suitably constructed special testfunction.

Nonlinear propagation of vector extremely short pulses in a medium of symmetric and asymmetric molecules

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sazonov, S. V., E-mail: sazonov.sergey@gmail.com [National Research Centre “Kurchatov Institute,” (Russian Federation); Ustinov, N. V., E-mail: n-ustinov@mail.ru [Moscow State University of Railways, Kaliningrad Branch (Russian Federation)

2017-02-15

The nonlinear propagation of extremely short electromagnetic pulses in a medium of symmetric and asymmetric molecules placed in static magnetic and electric fields is theoretically studied. Asymmetric molecules differ in that they have nonzero permanent dipole moments in stationary quantum states. A system of wave equations is derived for the ordinary and extraordinary components of pulses. It is shown that this system can be reduced in some cases to a system of coupled Ostrovsky equations and to the equation intagrable by the method for an inverse scattering transformation, including the vector version of the Ostrovsky–Vakhnenko equation. Different types of solutions of this system are considered. Only solutions representing the superposition of periodic solutions are single-valued, whereas soliton and breather solutions are multivalued.

Short-Period Surface Wave Based Seismic Event Relocation

Science.gov (United States)

White-Gaynor, A.; Cleveland, M.; Nyblade, A.; Kintner, J. A.; Homman, K.; Ammon, C. J.

2017-12-01

Accurate and precise seismic event locations are essential for a broad range of geophysical investigations. Superior location accuracy generally requires calibration with ground truth information, but superb relative location precision is often achievable independently. In explosion seismology, low-yield explosion monitoring relies on near-source observations, which results in a limited number of observations that challenges our ability to estimate any locations. Incorporating more distant observations means relying on data with lower signal-to-noise ratios. For small, shallow events, the short-period (roughly 1/2 to 8 s period) fundamental-mode and higher-mode Rayleigh waves (including Rg) are often the most stable and visible portion of the waveform at local distances. Cleveland and Ammon [2013] have shown that teleseismic surface waves are valuable observations for constructing precise, relative event relocations. We extend the teleseismic surface wave relocation method, and apply them to near-source distances using Rg observations from the Bighorn Arche Seismic Experiment (BASE) and the Earth Scope USArray Transportable Array (TA) seismic stations. Specifically, we present relocation results using short-period fundamental- and higher-mode Rayleigh waves (Rg) in a double-difference relative event relocation for 45 delay-fired mine blasts and 21 borehole chemical explosions. Our preliminary efforts are to explore the sensitivity of the short-period surface waves to local geologic structure, source depth, explosion magnitude (yield), and explosion characteristics (single-shot vs. distributed source, etc.). Our results show that Rg and the first few higher-mode Rayleigh wave observations can be used to constrain the relative locations of shallow low-yield events.

Extreme value analysis of meterological parameters observed at Narora during the period 1989-2001

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Varakhedkar, V.K.; Dube, B.; Gurg, R.P.

2002-08-01

The design of engineering structures requires an understanding of extreme weather conditions that may occur at the site of interest, which is very essential, so that the structures can be designed to withstand weather stresses. In this report an analysis of extreme values of meteorological parameters observed at Narora for the period 1989- 2001 is described. The parameters considered are maximum and minimum air temperature, minimum relative humidity, maximum wind speed, maximum rainfall in a day and month, and annual rainfall. The extreme value analysis reveals that the variables such as annual maximum air temperature, minimum relative humidity and monthly maximum rainfall obey Fisher -Tippet Type -I extreme value distribution where as annual minimum air temperature, maximum hourly wind speed, daily maximum rainfall and maximum and minimum annual rainfall, obey Fisher -Tippet Type -2 extreme value distribution function. Various distribution function parameters for each variable are determined. Extreme values corresponding to return periods of 50 years and 100 years are worked out. These derived extreme values are particularly useful for arriving at suitable design values to ensure the safety of any civil structure in Narora area with respect to stresses due to weather conditions. (author)

Trends and periodicity of daily temperature and precipitation extremes during 1960-2013 in Hunan Province, central south China

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Ajiao; He, Xinguang; Guan, Huade; Cai, Yi

2018-04-01

In this study, the trends and periodicity in climate extremes are examined in Hunan Province over the period 1960-2013 on the basis of 27 extreme climate indices calculated from daily temperature and precipitation records at 89 meteorological stations. The results show that in the whole province, temperature extremes exhibit a warming trend with more than 50% stations being statistically significant for 7 out of 16 temperature indices, and the nighttime temperature increases faster than the daytime temperature at the annual scale. The changes in most extreme temperature indices show strongly coherent spatial patterns. Moreover, the change rates of almost all temperature indices in north Hunan are greater than those of other regions. However, the statistically significant changes in indices of extreme precipitation are observed at fewer stations than in extreme temperature indices, forming less spatially coherent patterns. Positive trends in indices of extreme precipitation show that the amount and intensity of extreme precipitation events are generally increasing in both annual and seasonal scales, whereas the significant downward trend in consecutive wet days indicates that the precipitation becomes more even over the study period. Analysis of changes in probability distributions of extreme indices for 1960-1986 and 1987-2013 also demonstrates a remarkable shift toward warmer condition and increasing tendency in the amount and intensity of extreme precipitation during the past decades. The variations in extreme climate indices exhibit inconstant frequencies in the wavelet power spectrum. Among the 16 temperature indices, 2 of them show significant 1-year periodic oscillation and 7 of them exhibit significant 4-year cycle during some certain periods. However, significant periodic oscillations can be found in all of the precipitation indices. Wet-day precipitation and three absolute precipitation indices show significant 1-year cycle and other seven provide

A survey for very short-period planets in the Kepler data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jackson, Brian; Stark, Christopher C.; Chambers, John [Carnegie Institution for Science, 5241 Broad Branch Road NW, Washington, DC 20015 (United States); Adams, Elisabeth R. [Planetary Science Institute, 1700 East Fort Lowell, Suite 106, Tucson, AZ 85719 (United States); Deming, Drake, E-mail: bjackson@dtm.ciw.edu [Department of Astronomy, University of Maryland at College Park, College Park, MD 20742 (United States)

2013-12-20

We conducted a search for very short-period transiting objects in the publicly available Kepler data set. Our preliminary survey has revealed four planetary candidates, all with orbital periods less than 12 hr. We have analyzed the data for these candidates using photometric models that include transit light curves, ellipsoidal variations, and secondary eclipses to constrain the candidates' radii, masses, and effective temperatures. Even with masses of only a few Earth masses, the candidates' short periods mean that they may induce stellar radial velocity signals (a few m s{sup –1}) detectable by currently operating facilities. The origins of such short-period planets are unclear, but we discuss the possibility that they may be the remnants of disrupted hot Jupiters. Whatever their origins, if confirmed as planets, these candidates would be among the shortest-period planets ever discovered. Such planets would be particularly amenable to discovery by the planned TESS mission.

A survey for very short-period planets in the Kepler data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jackson, Brian; Stark, Christopher C.; Chambers, John; Adams, Elisabeth R.; Deming, Drake

2013-01-01

We conducted a search for very short-period transiting objects in the publicly available Kepler data set. Our preliminary survey has revealed four planetary candidates, all with orbital periods less than 12 hr. We have analyzed the data for these candidates using photometric models that include transit light curves, ellipsoidal variations, and secondary eclipses to constrain the candidates' radii, masses, and effective temperatures. Even with masses of only a few Earth masses, the candidates' short periods mean that they may induce stellar radial velocity signals (a few m s –1 ) detectable by currently operating facilities. The origins of such short-period planets are unclear, but we discuss the possibility that they may be the remnants of disrupted hot Jupiters. Whatever their origins, if confirmed as planets, these candidates would be among the shortest-period planets ever discovered. Such planets would be particularly amenable to discovery by the planned TESS mission.

Short period tidal variations of earth rotation

Science.gov (United States)

Yoder, C. F.; Williams, J. G.; Parke, M. E.; Dickey, J. O.

1981-01-01

It is explained that the tidal deformation of the earth's polar moment of inertia by the moon and sun cause periodic variations in rotation. The short period oscillations give rise to a meter-sized, diurnal signature in the lunar laser ranging data obtained at McDonald Observatory. A solution is given for the scale parameter k/C at fortnightly and monthly tidal frequencies. The results are compared with those obtained by other investigators and with a theoretical estimate which includes the effect of oceans and a decoupled fluid core.

On the short periods oscillation in relativistic stars

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aquilano, R.; Morales, S.; Navone, H.; Sevilla, D.; Zorzi, A.

2009-01-01

We expand the study of neutron and strange matter stars with general relativistic formalism. We analyze the correlation with the observational data short periods oscillations in these stars, and we intend to discriminate between them.

Preferred Hosts for Short-Period Exoplanets

Science.gov (United States)

Kohler, Susanna

2015-12-01

In an effort to learn more about how planets form around their host stars, a team of scientists has analyzed the population of Kepler-discovered exoplanet candidates, looking for trends in where theyre found.Planetary OccurrenceSince its launch in 2009, Kepler has found thousands of candidate exoplanets around a variety of star types. Especially intriguing is the large population of super-Earths and mini-Neptunes planets with masses between that of Earth and Neptune that have short orbital periods. How did they come to exist so close to their host star? Did they form in situ, or migrate inwards, or some combination of both processes?To constrain these formation mechanisms, a team of scientists led by Gijs Mulders (University of Arizona and NASAs NExSS coalition) analyzed the population of Kepler planet candidates that have orbital periods between 2 and 50 days.Mulders and collaborators used statistical reconstructions to find the average number of planets, within this orbital range, around each star in the Kepler field. They then determined how this planet occurrence rate changed for different spectral types and therefore the masses of the host stars: do low-mass M-dwarf stars host more or fewer planets than higher-mass, main-sequence F, G, or K stars?Challenging ModelsAuthors estimates for the occurrence rate for short-period planets of different radii around M-dwarfs (purple) and around F, G, and K-type stars (blue). [Mulders et al. 2015]The team found that M dwarfs, compared to F, G, or K stars, host about half as many large planets with orbital periods of P 50 days. But, surprisingly, they host significantly more small planets, racking up an average of 3.5 times the number of planets in the size range of 12.8 Earth-radii.Could it be that M dwarfs have a lower total mass of planets, but that mass is distributed into more, smaller planets? Apparently not: the authors show that the mass of heavy elements trapped in short-orbital-period planets is higher for M

Evolution of extreme temperature events in short term climate projection for Iberian Peninsula.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodriguez, Alfredo; Tarquis, Ana M.; Sanchez, Enrique; Dosio, Alessandro; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita

2014-05-01

Extreme events of maximum and minimum temperatures are a main hazard for agricultural production in Iberian Peninsula. For this purpose, in this study we analyze projections of their evolution that could be valid for the next decade, represented in this study by the 30-year period 2004-2034 (target period). For this purpose two kinds of data were used in this study: 1) observations from the station network of AEMET (Spanish National Meteorological Agency) for five Spanish locations, and 2) simulated data at a resolution of 50 ×50 km horizontal grid derived from the outputs of twelve Regional Climate Models (RCMs) taken from project ENSEMBLES (van der Linden and Mitchell, 2009), with a bias correction (Dosio and Paruolo, 2011; Dosio et al., 2012) regarding the observational dataset Spain02 (Herrera et al., 2012). To validate the simulated climate, the available period of observations was compared to a baseline period (1964-1994) of simulated climate for all locations. Then, to analyze the changes for the present/very next future, probability of extreme temperature events for 2004-2034 were compared to that of the baseline period. Although only minor changes are expected, small variations in variability may have a significant impact in crop performance. The objective of the work is to evaluate the utility of these short term projections for potential users, as for instance insurance companies. References Dosio A. and Paruolo P., 2011. Bias correction of the ENSEMBLES high-resolution climate change projections for use by impact models: Evaluation on the present climate. Journal of Geophysical Research, VOL. 116,D16106, doi:10.1029/2011JD015934 Dosio A., Paruolo P. and Rojas R., 2012. Bias correction of the ENSEMBLES high resolution climate change projections for use by impact models: Analysis of the climate change signal. Journal of Geophysical Research,Volume 117, D17, doi: 0.1029/2012JD017968 Herrera et. al. (2012) Development and Analysis of a 50 year high

The effect of short recovery period investment on least-cost generation system expansion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yiqun He; David, A.K.; Fernando, P.N.

1995-01-01

The effect of the short recovery period of private investment on least-cost generation system expansion is analysed, and a trade-off method for generation system expansion, which gives consideration to both the least-cost strategy and the short recovery period of private investment, is presented. First, the optimal mix of generation units under a standard recovery period for all units is established, and then the surcharge, due to the difference between the short recovery period and the standard recovery period, is calculated and shared between all units. The former is an optimization to make best use of natural resources, and the latter is a trade-off method to spread the surcharge throughout the system. (Author)

Effects of age, gender, and stimulus presentation period on visual short-term memory.

Science.gov (United States)

Kunimi, Mitsunobu

2016-01-01

This study focused on age-related changes in visual short-term memory using visual stimuli that did not allow verbal encoding. Experiment 1 examined the effects of age and the length of the stimulus presentation period on visual short-term memory function. Experiment 2 examined the effects of age, gender, and the length of the stimulus presentation period on visual short-term memory function. The worst memory performance and the largest performance difference between the age groups were observed in the shortest stimulus presentation period conditions. The performance difference between the age groups became smaller as the stimulus presentation period became longer; however, it did not completely disappear. Although gender did not have a significant effect on d' regardless of the presentation period in the young group, a significant gender-based difference was observed for stimulus presentation periods of 500 ms and 1,000 ms in the older group. This study indicates that the decline in visual short-term memory observed in the older group is due to the interaction of several factors.

Response of phytoplankton assemblages isolated for short periods ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The response of phytoplankton assemblages isolated in enclosures for short periods of time was examined in hyper-eutrophic Lake Chivero (Harare, Zimbabwe), to determine the factors that influenced the structure of the phytoplankton community, after noticing a marked decline in the dominance of Microcystis aeruginosa ...

PLANET HUNTERS: ASSESSING THE KEPLER INVENTORY OF SHORT-PERIOD PLANETS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schwamb, Megan E.; Lintott, Chris J.; Lynn, Stuart; Smith, Arfon M.; Simpson, Robert J.; Fischer, Debra A.; Giguere, Matthew J.; Brewer, John M.; Parrish, Michael; Schawinski, Kevin

2012-01-01

We present the results from a search of data from the first 33.5 days of the Kepler science mission (Quarter 1) for exoplanet transits by the Planet Hunters citizen science project. Planet Hunters enlists members of the general public to visually identify transits in the publicly released Kepler light curves via the World Wide Web. Over 24,000 volunteers reviewed the Kepler Quarter 1 data set. We examine the abundance of ≥2 R ⊕ planets on short-period ( ⊕ Planet Hunters ≥85% efficient at identifying transit signals for planets with periods less than 15 days for the Kepler sample of target stars. Our high efficiency rate for simulated transits along with recovery of the majority of Kepler ≥4 R ⊕ planets suggests that the Kepler inventory of ≥4 R ⊕ short-period planets is nearly complete.

Patterns and singular features of extreme fluctuational paths of a periodically driven system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Zhen; Liu, Xianbin

2016-01-01

Large fluctuations of an overdamped periodically driven oscillating system are investigated theoretically and numerically in the limit of weak noise. Optimal paths fluctuating to certain point are given by statistical analysis using the concept of prehistory probability distribution. The validity of statistical results is verified by solutions of boundary value problem. Optimal paths are found to change topologically when terminating points lie at opposite side of a switching line. Patterns of extreme paths are plotted through a proper parameterization of Lagrangian manifold having complicated structures. Several extreme paths to the same point are obtained by multiple solutions of boundary value solutions. Actions along various extreme paths are calculated and associated analysis is performed in relation to the singular features of the patterns. - Highlights: • Both extreme and optimal paths are obtained by various methods. • Boundary value problems are solved to ensure the validity of statistical results. • Topological structure of Lagrangian manifold is considered. • Singularities of the pattern of extreme paths are studied.

Short-term Periodization Models: Effects on Strength and Speed-strength Performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Hartmann, Hagen; Wirth, Klaus; Keiner, Michael; Mickel, Christoph; Sander, Andre; Szilvas, Elena

2015-10-01

avoided because it does not provide an adequate training stimulus for gains in muscle cross-sectional area and strength performance. High-volume circuit strength training performed over 2 years negatively affected the development of the power output and maximal strength of the upper extremities in professional rugby players. Indeed, meta-analyses and results with weightlifters, American Football players, and throwers confirm the necessity of the habitual use of ≥80% 1 RM: (1) to improve maximal strength during the off-season and in-season in American Football, (2) to reach peak performance in maximal strength and vertical jump power during tapering in track-and-field, and (3) to produce hypertrophy and strength improvements in advanced athletes. The integration and extent of hypertrophy strength training in in-season conditioning depend on the duration of the contest period, the frequency of the contests, and the proportion of the conditioning program. Based on the literature, 72 h between hypertrophy strength training and strength-power training should be provided to allow for adequate regeneration times and therefore maximal stimulus intensities in training. This conclusion is only valid if the muscle is not trained otherwise during this regeneration phase. Thus, rotating hypertrophy and strength-power sessions in a microcycle during the season is a viable option. Comparative studies in competitive athletes who integrated strength training during pre-season conditioning confirm a tendency for gains in explosive strength and statistically significant improvements in medicine ball throw through SPP but not through daily undulating periodization. These findings indicate that to maximize the speed-strength in the short term (peaking), elite athletes should perform strength-power training twice per week. It is possible to perform a single strength-power session with the method of maximum explosive strength actions moving high-weight loads (90% 1 repetition maximum [RM]) at

Self-reflection of extremely short light pulses in nonlinear optical waveguides

Science.gov (United States)

Kurasov, Alexander E.; Kozlov, Sergei A.

2004-07-01

An equation describing the generation of reflected radiation during the propagation of high-intensity extremely short pulses in a nonlinear optical waveguide is derived. The phenomena taking place during the strong self-inducted changes of the temporal structure of the forward wave are studied. It is shown that the duration of the backward pulse is much greater than the duration of the forward pulse and that the main part of the energy of the backward wave is carried by lower frequencies than the central frequency of the forward wave.

A Search for Exoplanets in Short-Period Binary Star Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ronald Kaitchuck

2012-03-01

Full Text Available This paper reports the progress of a search for exoplanets with S-type orbits in short-period binary star systems. The selected targets have stellar orbital periods of just a few days. These systems are eclipsing binaries so that exoplanet transits, if planets exist, will be highly likely. We report the results for seven binary star systems.

Measuring risk of crude oil at extreme quantiles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saša Žiković

2011-06-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to investigate the performance of VaR models at measuring risk for WTI oil one-month futures returns. Risk models, ranging from industry standards such as RiskMetrics and historical simulation to conditional extreme value model, are used to calculate commodity market risk at extreme quantiles: 0.95, 0.99, 0.995 and 0.999 for both long and short trading positions. Our results show that out of the tested fat tailed distributions, generalised Pareto distribution provides the best fit to both tails of oil returns although tails differ significantly, with the right tail having a higher tail index, indicative of more extreme events. The main conclusion is that, in the analysed period, only extreme value theory based models provide a reasonable degree of safety while widespread VaR models do not provide adequate risk coverage and their performance is especially weak for short position in oil.

A passive method for the determination of the equilibrium factor between radon gas and its short period progeny

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lopez, Fabio O.; Canoba, Analia C.

2001-01-01

Due to the radiological importance of 222 Rn gas and its progeny of short period it is extremely necessary to count with an adequate methodology for the determination of its concentration in the different atmospheres in which human activity is developed. In this work a method was developed to determine the concentration of 222 Rn gas and the equilibrium factor between the concentration of the gas and its descendants, by means of a single device that has two Makrofol passive tracks detector. This device is completely passive and integrating, conditions that make it very appropriate to be used in any atmospheres in which human activity is developed, for example in houses, schools, places of work, underground mines, etc. (author)

Coherent Phonon Dynamics in Short-Period InAs/GaSb Superlattices

OpenAIRE

Noe, G. T.; Haugan, H. J.; Brown, G. J.; Sanders, G. D.; Stanton, C. J.; Kono, J.

2011-01-01

We have performed ultrafast pump-probe spectroscopy studies on a series of InAs/GaSb-based short-period superlattice (SL) samples with periods ranging from 46 \\AA to 71 \\AA. We observe two types of oscillations in the differential reflectivity with fast ($\\sim$ 1- 2 ps) and slow ($\\sim$ 24 ps) periods. The period of the fast oscillations changes with the SL period and can be explained as coherent acoustic phonons generated from carriers photoexcited within the SL. This mode provides an accura...

Absence of a Metallicity Effect for Ultra-short-period Planets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Winn, Joshua N.; Sanchis-Ojeda, Roberto; Isaacson, Howard; Marcy, Geoffrey W.; Rogers, Leslie; Petigura, Erik A.; Howard, Andrew W.; Schlaufman, Kevin C.; Cargile, Phillip; Hebb, Leslie

2017-01-01

Ultra-short-period (USP) planets are a newly recognized class of planets with periods shorter than one day and radii smaller than about 2  R ⊕ . It has been proposed that USP planets are the solid cores of hot Jupiters that have lost their gaseous envelopes due to photo-evaporation or Roche lobe overflow. We test this hypothesis by asking whether USP planets are associated with metal-rich stars, as has long been observed for hot Jupiters. We find the metallicity distributions of USP-planet and hot-Jupiter hosts to be significantly different ( p = 3 × 10 −4 ) based on Keck spectroscopy of Kepler stars. Evidently, the sample of USP planets is not dominated by the evaporated cores of hot Jupiters. The metallicity distribution of stars with USP planets is indistinguishable from that of stars with short-period planets with sizes between 2 and 4  R ⊕ . Thus, it remains possible that the USP planets are the solid cores of formerly gaseous planets that are smaller than Neptune.

Absence of a Metallicity Effect for Ultra-short-period Planets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Winn, Joshua N. [Department of Astrophysical Sciences, Princeton University, 4 Ivy Lane, Princeton, NJ 08540 (United States); Sanchis-Ojeda, Roberto; Isaacson, Howard; Marcy, Geoffrey W. [Department of Astronomy, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States); Rogers, Leslie [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of Chicago, 5640 South Ellis Avenue, Chicago, IL 60637 (United States); Petigura, Erik A.; Howard, Andrew W. [Department of Astronomy, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Schlaufman, Kevin C. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States); Cargile, Phillip [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Hebb, Leslie [Hobart and William Smith Colleges, Geneva, NY 14456 (United States)

2017-08-01

Ultra-short-period (USP) planets are a newly recognized class of planets with periods shorter than one day and radii smaller than about 2  R {sub ⊕}. It has been proposed that USP planets are the solid cores of hot Jupiters that have lost their gaseous envelopes due to photo-evaporation or Roche lobe overflow. We test this hypothesis by asking whether USP planets are associated with metal-rich stars, as has long been observed for hot Jupiters. We find the metallicity distributions of USP-planet and hot-Jupiter hosts to be significantly different ( p = 3 × 10{sup −4}) based on Keck spectroscopy of Kepler stars. Evidently, the sample of USP planets is not dominated by the evaporated cores of hot Jupiters. The metallicity distribution of stars with USP planets is indistinguishable from that of stars with short-period planets with sizes between 2 and 4  R {sub ⊕}. Thus, it remains possible that the USP planets are the solid cores of formerly gaseous planets that are smaller than Neptune.

Long-period and short-period variations of ionospheric parameters studied from complex observations performed on Cuba

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Laso, B; Lobachevskii, L A; Potapova, N I; Freizon, I A; Shapiro, B S

1980-09-01

Cuban data from 1978 are used to study long-period (i.e., diurnal) variations of Doppler shift on a 3000 km path at frequencies of 10 and 15 MHz these variations are related to variations of parameters on the ionospheric path. Short-period variations were also studied on the basis of Doppler shift data and vertical sounding data in the 0.000111-0.00113 Hz frequency range. The relation between the observed variations and internal gravity waves are discussed.

Beamline front end for in-vacuum short period undulator at the photon factory storage ring

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Miyauchi, Hiroshi, E-mail: hiroshi.miyauchi@kek.jp [Accelerator Laboratory, High Energy Accelerator Research Organization (KEK), 1-1 Oho, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0801 (Japan); Department of Accelerator Science, School of High Energy Accelerator Science, SOKENDAI (The Graduate University for Advanced Studies), 1-1 Oho, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0801 (Japan); Tahara, Toshihiro, E-mail: ttahara@post.kek.jp; Asaoka, Seiji, E-mail: seiji.asaoka@kek.jp [Accelerator Laboratory, High Energy Accelerator Research Organization (KEK), 1-1 Oho, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0801 (Japan)

2016-07-27

The straight-section upgrade project of the Photon Factory created four new short straight sections capable of housing in-vacuum short period undulators. The first to fourth short period undulators SGU#17, SGU#03, SGU#01 and SGU#15 were installed at the 2.5-GeV Photon Factory storage ring in 2005, 2006, 2009 and 2013, respectively. The beamline front end for SGU#15 is described in this paper.

Evaluation of short-period rainfall estimates from Kalpana-1 satellite

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

The INSAT Multispectral Rainfall Algorithm (IMSRA) technique for rainfall estimation, has recently been developed to meet the shortcomings of the Global Precipitation Index (GPI) technique of rainfall estimation from the data of geostationary satellites; especially for accurate short period rainfall estimates. This study ...

Staggered and short-period solutions of the saturable discrete nonlinear Schrodinger equation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Khare, A.; Rasmussen, K.O.; Samuelsen, Mogens Rugholm

2009-01-01

We point out that the nonlinear Schrodinger lattice with a saturable nonlinearity also admits staggered periodic aswell as localized pulse-like solutions. Further, the same model also admits solutions with a short period. We examine the stability of these solutions and find that the staggered as ...

Short interval overnight laser scanning suggest sub-circadian periodicity of tree turgor

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zlinszky, Andras; Barfod, Anders

2018-01-01

in amplitude and 2-6hour periodicity. Sub-circadian process dynamics of plants were so far not in focus of research, but here we compare the findings with other published cases of short-term periodicity in leaf turgor, sap flow and especially trunk diameter. Several authors have noted overnight variations...

Short interval overnight laser scanning suggests sub-circadian periodicity of tree turgor

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zlinszky, Andras; Barfod, Anders

2018-01-01

in amplitude and 2-6hour periodicity. Sub-circadian process dynamics of plants were so far not in focus of research, but here we compare the findings with other published cases of short-term periodicity in leaf turgor, sap flow and especially trunk diameter. Several authors have noted overnight variations...

New serial time codes for seismic short period and long period data acquisition systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kolvankar, V.G.; Rao, D.S.

1988-01-01

This paper discusses a new time code for time indexing multichannel short period (1 to 25 hz) seismic event data recorded on a single track of magnetic tape in digital format and discusses its usefulness in contrast to Vela time code used in continuous analog multichannel data recording system on multitrack instrumentation tape deck. This paper also discusses another time code, used for time indexing of seismic long period (DC to 2.5 seconds) multichannel data recorded on a single track of magnetic tape in digital format. The time code decoding and display system developed to provide quick access to any desired portion of the tape in both data recording and repro duce system is also discussed. (author). 7 figs

The role of extreme orbits in the global organization of periodic regions in parameter space for one dimensional maps

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Costa, Diogo Ricardo da, E-mail: diogo_cost@hotmail.com [Departamento de Física, UNESP – Universidade Estadual Paulista, Av. 24A, 1515, Bela Vista, 13506-900, Rio Claro, SP (Brazil); Hansen, Matheus [Departamento de Física, UNESP – Universidade Estadual Paulista, Av. 24A, 1515, Bela Vista, 13506-900, Rio Claro, SP (Brazil); Instituto de Física, Univ. São Paulo, Rua do Matão, Cidade Universitária, 05314-970, São Paulo – SP (Brazil); Guarise, Gustavo [Departamento de Física, UNESP – Universidade Estadual Paulista, Av. 24A, 1515, Bela Vista, 13506-900, Rio Claro, SP (Brazil); Medrano-T, Rene O. [Departamento de Ciências Exatas e da Terra, UNIFESP – Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Rua São Nicolau, 210, Centro, 09913-030, Diadema, SP (Brazil); Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom); Leonel, Edson D. [Departamento de Física, UNESP – Universidade Estadual Paulista, Av. 24A, 1515, Bela Vista, 13506-900, Rio Claro, SP (Brazil); Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics, Strada Costiera 11, 34151 Trieste (Italy)

2016-04-22

We show that extreme orbits, trajectories that connect local maximum and minimum values of one dimensional maps, play a major role in the parameter space of dissipative systems dictating the organization for the windows of periodicity, hence producing sets of shrimp-like structures. Here we solve three fundamental problems regarding the distribution of these sets and give: (i) their precise localization in the parameter space, even for sets of very high periods; (ii) their local and global distributions along cascades; and (iii) the association of these cascades to complicate sets of periodicity. The extreme orbits are proved to be a powerful indicator to investigate the organization of windows of periodicity in parameter planes. As applications of the theory, we obtain some results for the circle map and perturbed logistic map. The formalism presented here can be extended to many other different nonlinear and dissipative systems. - Highlights: • Extreme orbits and the organization of periodic regions in parameter space. • One-dimensional dissipative mappings. • The circle map and also a time perturbed logistic map were studied.

The role of extreme orbits in the global organization of periodic regions in parameter space for one dimensional maps

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Costa, Diogo Ricardo da; Hansen, Matheus; Guarise, Gustavo; Medrano-T, Rene O.; Leonel, Edson D.

2016-01-01

We show that extreme orbits, trajectories that connect local maximum and minimum values of one dimensional maps, play a major role in the parameter space of dissipative systems dictating the organization for the windows of periodicity, hence producing sets of shrimp-like structures. Here we solve three fundamental problems regarding the distribution of these sets and give: (i) their precise localization in the parameter space, even for sets of very high periods; (ii) their local and global distributions along cascades; and (iii) the association of these cascades to complicate sets of periodicity. The extreme orbits are proved to be a powerful indicator to investigate the organization of windows of periodicity in parameter planes. As applications of the theory, we obtain some results for the circle map and perturbed logistic map. The formalism presented here can be extended to many other different nonlinear and dissipative systems. - Highlights: • Extreme orbits and the organization of periodic regions in parameter space. • One-dimensional dissipative mappings. • The circle map and also a time perturbed logistic map were studied.

Extreme value analysis of meteorological parameters observed during the period 1994-2001 at Kakrapar Atomic Power Station

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ramkumar, S.; Dole, M.L.; Nankar, D.P.; Rajan, M.P.; Gurg, R.P.

2003-01-01

In the design of engineering structures, an understanding of extreme weather conditions that may occur at the site of interest is very essential, so that the structures can be designed to withstand such situations. In this report an analysis of extreme values of meteorological parameters observed at Kakrapar Atomic Power Station site for the period 1994 -2001 is described. The parameters considered are maximum and minimum air temperature, maximum wind speed and gust, and maximum rainfall in a month, in a day, in an hour and annual rainfall. The extreme value analysis reveals that annual rainfall, maximum monthly rainfall, minimum air temperature and maximum wind speed at 10 m obey Fisher-Tippet Type -1 distribution whereas maximum daily rainfall, maximum hourly rainfall, maxinlum air temperature and maximum wind speed at 30 m obey Fisher-Tippet Type -2 distribution function. There is no difference in correlation coefficients and fit both extreme value distribution function. Co-efficients of the distribution functions for each variable are established. Extreme values of parameters corresponding to return periods of 50 and 100 years are derived. These derived extreme values are particularly useful for arriving at suitable design basis values to ensure the safety of any civil structure in and around Kakrapar Atomic Power Station site with respect to stresses due to weather conditions. (author)

Design of a short-period superconducting undulator at KEK-PF

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ohmi, K.; Ikeda, N.; Ishii, S.

1998-06-01

A short-period undulator using a superconducting magnet is proposed. This undulator has been designed to install in the KEK-Photon Factory 2.5-GeV or 6.5-GeV storage ring. The idea of a staggered wiggler, developed in Stanford university, is used in this undulator. The target of the period and K value of the undulator are set to be 1 cm and 1, respectively. We can obtain monochromatic photons with an energy of {approx} 5keV or {approx} 40 keV by using the undulator. (author)

Observation of short period fluctuation of CygX-1 with balloon

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakagawa, Michio; Sakurai, Takahisa; Uchida, Masayoshi

1977-01-01

CygX-1 presents very complex short period fluctuation of X-ray, therefore the hard X-ray was especially observed in 1972 and 1973 with large balloons, and the data were analyzed. This short period fluctuation and energy spectra of CygX-1 in the normal and flare time bands were compared. The observing apparatuses consisted of the 3 in diameter NaI detector and a high pressure proportional counter. The observing method is to turn the gondora alternately to the directions of source (ON) and background (OFF). As for the data analysis, the events at ON and OFF in the observation data in 1972 and 1973 were plotted for time interval. The background component is in agreement with Poisson's distribution, but source component is not. This difference for Poisson's distribution means the behavior of CygX-1. The power spectrum was analyzed, and the strong power density was observed at 5.4 x 10 -2 Hz in ON, but such power density was not observed in OFF. Accordingly this is presumed to be caused by CygX-1. The events for time interval in flare time are shown. The rise of about 2.9 σ exists at 80 msec. The count rates were compared for photon energy in the normal and flare times. The short period fluctuation of hard X-ray from CygX-1 deviates from Poisson's distribution and is different in the normal and flare times. (Nakai, Y.)

A short period undulator for MAX

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahola, H.; Meinander, T.

1992-01-01

A hybrid undulator for generation of high brilliance synchrotron radiation in the photon energy range of 60--600 eV at the 550 MeV electron storage ring MAX in Lund, Sweden has been designed and built at the Technical Research Centre of Finland in close collaboration with MAX-lab of Lund University. At the rather modest electron energy of MAX this photon energy range can be reached only by an undulator featuring a fairly short period and the smallest possible magnetic gap. Even then, higher harmonics (up to the 13th) of the radiation spectrum must be utilized. An optimization of the magnetic design resulted in a hybrid configuration of NdFeB magnets and soft iron poles with a period of 24 mm and a minimum magnetic gap of 7--10 mm. A variable-gap vacuum chamber allows reduction of the vacuum gap from a maximum of 20 mm, needed for injection, down to 6 mm during stored beam operation. A special design of this chamber permits a magnetic gap between pole tips that is only 1 mm larger than the vacuum gap. Adequate field uniformity was ensured by calibration of magnets to equal strength at their true operating point and verification of the homogeneity of their magnetization. Magnetic measurements included Hall probe scans of the undulator field and flip coil evaluations of the field integral

Biotic and Abiotic factors governing nestling-period length in the ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapilla)

Science.gov (United States)

Eric Stodola; David Buehler; Daniel Kim; Kathleen Franzreb; Daniel Linder

2010-01-01

In many songbirds, the nesting period for a breeding attempt is extremely short, often lasting only a few weeks. Breeding adults can shorten this period by decreasing the number of eggs laid or reducing the length of the nestling period. Nestling-period length has received little attention in the literature but could have profound effects on annual fecundity, because...

Production of well-matured compost from night-soil sludge by an extremely short period of thermophilic composting.

Science.gov (United States)

Nakasaki, Kiyohiko; Ohtaki, Akihito; Takemoto, Minoru; Fujiwara, Shunrokuro

2011-03-01

The effect of various operational conditions on the decomposition of organic material during the composting of night-soil treatment sludge was quantitatively examined. The optimum composting conditions were found to be a temperature of ca. 60°C and an initial pH value of 8. Rapid decomposition of organic matter ceased by the sixth day of composting under these optimum conditions, and the final value of the cumulative emission of carbon (E(C)), which represents the degree of organic matter decomposition, was less than 40%, indicating that the sludge contained only a small amount of easily degradable organic material. A plant growth assay using Komatsuna (Brassica campestris L. var. rapiferafroug) in a 1/5000a standard cultivation pot was then conducted for the compost at various degrees of organic matter decomposition: the raw composting material, the final compost obtained on day 6, and the 2 intermediate compost products (i.e., E(C)=10% and 20%). It was found that the larger the E(C), the greater the yield of Komatsuna growth. It was also found that 6 days of composting is sufficient to promote Komatsuna growth at the standard loading level, which is equivalent to a 1.5 g N/pot, since the promotion effect was as high as that obtained using chemical fertilizer. It can therefore be concluded that well-matured compost could be obtained in a short period of time (i.e., as early as 6 days), when night-soil sludge is composted under optimum conditions. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Born dry in the photoevaporation desert: Kepler's ultra-short-period planets formed water-poor

Science.gov (United States)

Lopez, Eric D.

2017-11-01

Recent surveys have uncovered an exciting new population of ultra-short-period (USP) planets with orbital periods less than a day. These planets typically have radii ≲1.5 R⊕, indicating that they likely have rocky compositions. This stands in contrast to the overall distribution of planets out to ∼100 d, which is dominated by low-density sub-Neptunes above 2 R⊕, which must have gaseous envelopes to explain their size. However, on the USP orbits, planets are bombarded by intense levels of photoionizing radiation and consequently gaseous sub-Neptunes are extremely vulnerable to losing their envelopes to atmospheric photoevaporation. Using models of planet evolution, I show that the rocky USP planets can easily be produced as the evaporated remnants of sub-Neptunes with H/He envelopes and that we can therefore understand the observed dearth of USP sub-Neptunes as a natural consequence of photoevaporation. Critically however, planets on USP orbits could often retain their envelopes if they are formed with very high-metallicity water-dominated envelopes. Such water-rich planets would commonly be ≳2 R⊕ today, which is inconsistent with the observed evaporation desert, indicating that most USP planets likely formed from water-poor material within the snow-line. Finally, I examine the special case of 55 Cancri e and its possible composition in the light of recent observations, and discuss the prospects for further characterizing this population with future observations.

Retrospective cohort clinical investigation of a dental implant with a narrow diameter and short length for the partial rehabilitation of extremely atrophic jaws.

Science.gov (United States)

Maló, Paulo S; de Araújo Nobre, Miguel A; Lopes, Armando V; Ferro, Ana S

2017-01-01

We investigated the short-term clinical outcomes of narrow-diameter short-length implants for the fixed-prosthetic partial rehabilitation of extremely resorbed jaws. Twenty-three patients requiring partial rehabilitations with narrow-platform short-length implants in any jaw were included in this study. In total, 30 implants 3.3 mm in diameter and 7 (n = 15 implants) or 8.5 (n = 15 implants) mm in length were inserted. The primary outcome measure was implant cumulative survival rate (CSR); the secondary outcome measures were marginal bone resorption at 1 and 3 years and the incidence of biologic and mechanical complications. Five patients (21.7%) with six implants (20%) were lost to follow-up. Two implants failed in two patients, yielding a CSR at 3 years of follow-up of 93.4%. The average (standard deviation) marginal bone resorption was 1.34 mm (0.95 mm) after the first year and 1.38 mm (0.78 mm) after the third year. Biologic complications occurred in three patients; mechanical complications occurred in three patients. Despite the limitations of the study, our findings show that the use of new narrow-diameter short-length implants for the rehabilitation of extremely atrophic regions is viable in the short-term, and can be considered a treatment alternative in extremely resorbed jaws.

SOHO/SWAN OBSERVATIONS OF SHORT-PERIOD SPACECRAFT TARGET COMETS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Combi, M. R.; Lee, Y.; Patel, T. S.; Maekinen, J. T. T.; Bertaux, J.-L.; Quemerais, E.

2011-01-01

SWAN, the Solar Wind ANisotropies all-sky hydrogen Lyα camera on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory spacecraft that makes all-sky images of interplanetary neutral hydrogen, has an ongoing campaign to make special observations of comets, both short- and long-period ones, in addition to the serendipitous observations of comets as part of the all-sky monitoring program. We report here on a study of several short-period comets that were detected by SWAN: 21P/Giacobini-Zinner (1998 and 2005 apparitions), 19P/Borrelly (2001 apparition), 81P/Wild 2 (1997 apparition), and 103P/Hartley 2 (1997 apparition). SWAN observes comets over long continuous stretches of their visible apparitions and therefore provides excellent temporal coverage of the water production. For some of the observations we are also able to analyze an entire sequence of images over many days to several weeks/months using our time-resolved model and extract daily average water production rates over continuous periods of several days to months. The short-term (outburst) and long-term behavior can be correlated with other observations. The overall long-term variation is examined in light of seasonal effects seen in the pre- to post-perihelion differences. For 21P/Giacobini-Zinner and 81P/Wild 2 the activity variations over each apparition were more continuously monitored but nonetheless consistent with previous observations. For 19P/Borrelly we found a very steep variation of water production rates, again consistent with some previous observations, and a variation over six months around perihelion that was reasonably consistent with the spin-axis model of Schleicher et al. and the illumination of the main active areas. During the 1997-1998 apparition of 103P/Hartley 2, the target comet of the EPOXI mission (the Deep Impact extended mission), we found a variation with heliocentric distance (∼r -3.6 ) that was almost as steep as 19P/Borrelly and, given the small measured radius near aphelion, this places

Anomalous short period geomagnetic variations at two stations in Sri Lanka

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kunaratnam, K.

1986-08-01

An analysis of the rates of change in the geomagnetic field components in the period range 20-600 sec recorded at Kondavil and Hikkaduwa, two stations in the equatorial electrojet belt near the northern and south western coasts respectively of Sri Lanka, shows anomalous variations. The results confirm induced current concentration in the Palk Strait and deflection of induced currents around the southerncoast of Sri Lanka postulated by earlier workers from observations of SSC and Bay events at Indian stations and from analogue and numerical model studies. At Kondavil, which is situated close to the geomagnetic equator, no appreciable difference in the night-time and day-time values of ΔZ/ΔH and ΔD/ΔH ratios was noticed while at Hikkaduwa, a station situated under the edge of the equatorial electrojet belt, a day-time enhancement of ΔZ/ΔH ratios was found at all periods in the observed range. An enhancement of the H component at Colombo over that at Hikkaduwa was also found at short periods, the enhancement being greater at day-time. The day-time enhancement in the ΔZ/ΔH ratios at Hikkaduwa and in the ratio of the H components at Colombo and Hikkaduwa could be due to the effect of the equatorial electrojet on the short period variations. (author)

A Hybrid Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction Model Based on Singular Spectrum Analysis and Kernel Extreme Learning Machine.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qiang Shang

Full Text Available Short-term traffic flow prediction is one of the most important issues in the field of intelligent transport system (ITS. Because of the uncertainty and nonlinearity, short-term traffic flow prediction is a challenging task. In order to improve the accuracy of short-time traffic flow prediction, a hybrid model (SSA-KELM is proposed based on singular spectrum analysis (SSA and kernel extreme learning machine (KELM. SSA is used to filter out the noise of traffic flow time series. Then, the filtered traffic flow data is used to train KELM model, the optimal input form of the proposed model is determined by phase space reconstruction, and parameters of the model are optimized by gravitational search algorithm (GSA. Finally, case validation is carried out using the measured data of an expressway in Xiamen, China. And the SSA-KELM model is compared with several well-known prediction models, including support vector machine, extreme learning machine, and single KLEM model. The experimental results demonstrate that performance of the proposed model is superior to that of the comparison models. Apart from accuracy improvement, the proposed model is more robust.

Hydrometeorological extremes and their impacts derived from taxation records for south-eastern Moravia (Czech Republic) in the period 1751-1900

Science.gov (United States)

Chromá, K.; Brázdil, R.; Valášek, H.; Dolák, L.

2012-04-01

Hydrometeorological extremes always influenced human activities and caused great material damage or even loss of human lives. In the Czech Lands (recently the Czech Republic), systematic meteorological and hydrological observations started generally in the latter half of the 19th century. In order to create long-term series of hydrometeorological extremes, it is necessary to search for other sources of information for their study before 1850. In this study, written records associated with tax relief at ten estates located in south-eastern Moravia are used for the study of hydrometeorological extremes and their impacts during the period 1751-1900. The taxation system in Moravia allowed farmers to request tax relief if their crop yields had been negatively affected by hydrological and meteorological extremes. The documentation involved contains information about the type of extreme event and the date of its occurrence, and the impacts on crops may often be derived. A total of 175 extreme events resulting in some kind of damage is documented for 1751-1900, with the highest concentration between 1811 and 1860. The nature of events leading to damage (of a possible 272 types) include hailstorm (25.7%), torrential rain (21.7%), and flood (21.0%), followed by thunderstorm, flash flood, late frost and windstorm. The four most outstanding events, affecting the highest number of settlements, were thunderstorms with hailstorms (25 June 1825, 20 May 1847 and 29 June 1890) and flooding of the River Morava (mid-June 1847). Hydrometeorological extremes in the 1816-1855 period are compared with those occurring during the recent 1961-2000 period. The results obtained are inevitably influenced by uncertainties related to taxation records, such as their temporal and spatial incompleteness, the limits of the period of outside agricultural work (i.e. mainly May-August) and the purpose for which they were originally collected (primarily tax alleviation, i.e. information about

Return period curves for extreme 5-min rainfall amounts at the Barcelona urban network

Science.gov (United States)

Lana, X.; Casas-Castillo, M. C.; Serra, C.; Rodríguez-Solà, R.; Redaño, A.; Burgueño, A.; Martínez, M. D.

2018-03-01

Heavy rainfall episodes are relatively common in the conurbation of Barcelona and neighbouring cities (NE Spain), usually due to storms generated by convective phenomena in summer and eastern and south-eastern advections in autumn. Prevention of local flood episodes and right design of urban drainage have to take into account the rainfall intensity spread instead of a simple evaluation of daily rainfall amounts. The database comes from 5-min rain amounts recorded by tipping buckets in the Barcelona urban network along the years 1994-2009. From these data, extreme 5-min rain amounts are selected applying the peaks-over-threshold method for thresholds derived from both 95% percentile and the mean excess plot. The return period curves are derived from their statistical distribution for every gauge, describing with detail expected extreme 5-min rain amounts across the urban network. These curves are compared with those derived from annual extreme time series. In this way, areas in Barcelona submitted to different levels of flood risk from the point of view of rainfall intensity are detected. Additionally, global time trends on extreme 5-min rain amounts are quantified for the whole network and found as not statistically significant.

The spatial return level of aggregated hourly extreme rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Shaffie, Mardhiyyah; Eli, Annazirin; Wan Zin, Wan Zawiah; Jemain, Abdul Aziz

2015-07-01

This paper is intended to ascertain the spatial pattern of extreme rainfall distribution in Peninsular Malaysia at several short time intervals, i.e., on hourly basis. Motivation of this research is due to historical records of extreme rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia, whereby many hydrological disasters at this region occur within a short time period. The hourly periods considered are 1, 2, 3, 6, 12, and 24 h. Many previous hydrological studies dealt with daily rainfall data; thus, this study enables comparison to be made on the estimated performances between daily and hourly rainfall data analyses so as to identify the impact of extreme rainfall at a shorter time scale. Return levels based on the time aggregate considered are also computed. Parameter estimation using L-moment method for four probability distributions, namely, the generalized extreme value (GEV), generalized logistic (GLO), generalized Pareto (GPA), and Pearson type III (PE3) distributions were conducted. Aided with the L-moment diagram test and mean square error (MSE) test, GLO was found to be the most appropriate distribution to represent the extreme rainfall data. At most time intervals (10, 50, and 100 years), the spatial patterns revealed that the rainfall distribution across the peninsula differ for 1- and 24-h extreme rainfalls. The outcomes of this study would provide additional information regarding patterns of extreme rainfall in Malaysia which may not be detected when considering only a higher time scale such as daily; thus, appropriate measures for shorter time scales of extreme rainfall can be planned. The implementation of such measures would be beneficial to the authorities to reduce the impact of any disastrous natural event.

Toward 2D Seismic Wavefield Monitoring: Seismic Gradiometry for Long-Period Seismogram and Short-Period Seismogram Envelope applied to the Hi-net Array

Science.gov (United States)

Maeda, T.; Nishida, K.; Takagi, R.; Obara, K.

2015-12-01

The high-sensitive seismograph network Japan (Hi-net) operated by National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) has about 800 stations with average separation of 20 km. We can observe long-period seismic wave propagation as a 2D wavefield with station separations shorter than wavelength. In contrast, short-period waves are quite incoherent at stations, however, their envelope shapes resemble at neighbor stations. Therefore, we may be able to extract seismic wave energy propagation by seismogram envelope analysis. We attempted to characterize seismic waveform at long-period and its envelope at short-period as 2D wavefield by applying seismic gradiometry. We applied the seismic gradiometry to a synthetic long-period (20-50s) dataset prepared by numerical simulation in realistic 3D medium at the Hi-net station layout. Wave amplitude and its spatial derivatives are estimated by using data at nearby stations. The slowness vector, the radiation pattern and the geometrical spreading are extracted from estimated velocity, displacement and its spatial derivatives. For short-periods at shorter than 1 s, seismogram envelope shows temporal and spatial broadening through scattering by medium heterogeneity. It is expected that envelope shape may be coherent among nearby stations. Based on this idea, we applied the same method to the time-integration of seismogram envelope to estimate its spatial derivatives. Together with seismogram envelope, we succeeded in estimating the slowness vector from the seismogram envelope as well as long-period waveforms by synthetic test, without using phase information. Our preliminarily results show that the seismic gradiometry suits the Hi-net to extract wave propagation characteristics both at long and short periods. This method is appealing that it can estimate waves at homogeneous grid to monitor seismic wave as a wavefield. It is promising to obtain phase velocity variation from direct waves, and to grasp wave

Short-period oscillations in photoemission from thin films of Cr(100)

Science.gov (United States)

Vyalikh, Denis V.; Zahn, Peter; Richter, Manuel; Dedkov, Yu. S.; Molodtsov, S. L.

2005-07-01

Angle-resolved photoemission (PE) study of thin films of Cr grown on Fe(100) reveals thickness-dependent short-period oscillations of the PE intensity close to the Fermi energy at k‖˜0 . The oscillations are assigned to quantum-well states (QWS) caused by the nesting between the Fermi-surface sheets around the Γ and the X points in the Brillouin zone of antiferromagnetic Cr. The experimental data are confirmed by density-functional calculations applying a screened Korringa-Kohn-Rostoker Green’s function method. The period of the experimentally observed QWS oscillations amounts to about 2.6 monolayers and is larger than the fundamental 2-monolayer period of antiferromagnetic coupling in Cr.

A superconducting short period undulator for a harmonic generation FEL experiment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ingold, G.; Solomon, L.; Ben-Zvi, I.; Krinsky, S.; Li, D.; Lynch, D.; Sheehan, J.; Woodle, M.; Qiu, X.Z.; Yu, L.H.

1993-01-01

A three stage superconducting (SC) undulator for a high gain harmonic generation (HGE) FEL experiment in the infrared is under construction at the NSLS in collaboration with Grumman Corporation. A novel undulator technology suitable for short period (6-40mm) undulators will be employed for all three stages, the modulator, the dispersive section and the radiator. The undulator triples the frequency of a 10.4μm CO 2 seed laser. So far a 27 period (one third of the final radiator) prototype radiator has been designed, built and tested

Medical and psychosocial implications of adolescent extreme obesity - acceptance and effects of structured care, short: Youth with Extreme Obesity Study (YES).

Science.gov (United States)

Wabitsch, Martin; Moss, Anja; Reinehr, Thomas; Wiegand, Susanna; Kiess, Wieland; Scherag, André; Holl, Reinhard; Holle, Rolf; Hebebrand, Johannes

2013-08-29

Prevalence rates of overweight and obesity have increased in German children and adolescents in the last three decades. Adolescents with extreme obesity represent a distinct risk group. On the basis of data obtained by the German Child and Youth Survey (KiGGS) and the German district military offices we estimate that the group of extremely obese adolescents (BMI ≥ 35 kg/m2) currently encompasses approximately 200.000 adolescents aged 14 to 21 yrs. Conventional approaches focusing on weight reduction have largely proven futile for them. In addition, only a small percentage of adolescents with extreme obesity seek actively treatment for obesity while contributing disproportionately strong to health care costs. Because of somatic and psychiatric co-morbidities and social problems adolescents with extreme obesity require special attention within the medical care system. We have initiated the project "Medical and psychosocial implications of adolescents with extreme obesity--acceptance and effects of structured care, short: 'Youths with Extreme Obesity Study (YES)'", which aims at improving the medical care and social support structures for youths with extreme obesity in Germany. We focus on identification of these subjects (baseline examination) and their acceptance of diagnostic and subsequent treatment procedures. In a randomized controlled trial (RCT) we will investigate the effectiveness of a low key group intervention not focusing on weight loss but aimed at the provision of obesity related information, alleviation of social isolation, school and vocational integration and improvement of self-esteem in comparison to a control group treated in a conventional way with focus on weight loss. Interested individuals who fulfill current recommended criteria for weight loss surgery will be provided with a structured preparation and follow-up programs. All subjects will be monitored within a long-term observational study to elucidate medical and psychosocial outcomes

QUASI-PERIODIC OSCILLATIONS AND BROADBAND VARIABILITY IN SHORT MAGNETAR BURSTS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Huppenkothen, Daniela; Watts, Anna L.; Uttley, Phil; Van der Horst, Alexander J.; Van der Klis, Michiel [Astronomical Institute ' ' Anton Pannekoek' ' , University of Amsterdam, Postbus 94249, 1090-GE Amsterdam (Netherlands); Kouveliotou, Chryssa [Office of Science and Technology, ZP12, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, AL 35812 (United States); Goegues, Ersin [Sabanc Latin-Small-Letter-Dotless-I University, Orhanl Latin-Small-Letter-Dotless-I -Tuzla, Istanbul 34956 (Turkey); Granot, Jonathan [The Open University of Israel, 1 University Road, P.O. Box 808, Ra' anana 43537 (Israel); Vaughan, Simon [X-Ray and Observational Astronomy Group, University of Leicester, Leicester LE1 7RH (United Kingdom); Finger, Mark H., E-mail: D.Huppenkothen@uva.nl [Universities Space Research Association, Huntsville, AL 35805 (United States)

2013-05-01

The discovery of quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs) in magnetar giant flares has opened up prospects for neutron star asteroseismology. However, with only three giant flares ever recorded, and only two with data of sufficient quality to search for QPOs, such analysis is seriously data limited. We set out a procedure for doing QPO searches in the far more numerous, short, less energetic magnetar bursts. The short, transient nature of these bursts requires the implementation of sophisticated statistical techniques to make reliable inferences. Using Bayesian statistics, we model the periodogram as a combination of red noise at low frequencies and white noise at high frequencies, which we show is a conservative approach to the problem. We use empirical models to make inferences about the potential signature of periodic and QPOs at these frequencies. We compare our method with previously used techniques and find that although it is on the whole more conservative, it is also more reliable in ruling out false positives. We illustrate our Bayesian method by applying it to a sample of 27 bursts from the magnetar SGR J0501+4516 observed by the Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor, and we find no evidence for the presence of QPOs in any of the bursts in the unbinned spectra, but do find a candidate detection in the binned spectra of one burst. However, whether this signal is due to a genuine quasi-periodic process, or can be attributed to unmodeled effects in the noise is at this point a matter of interpretation.

Lower-Extremity Weakness in a Teenager Due to Thyrotoxic Periodic Paralysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Thornton, Matthew D

2017-04-01

Thyrotoxic hypokalemic paralysis is the hallmark of thyrotoxic periodic paralysis (TPP). TPP is a potentially deadly complication of hyperthyroidism that occurs because of rapid and dramatic intracellular shift of potassium. This transference results in severe hypokalemia and clinically manifests itself as muscle weakness or paralysis. This condition predominantly affects males of Asian descent, and its presentation can range from mild to severe, as seen in our case. We present the case of a 15-year-old Asian-American male who presented to a tertiary-care pediatric emergency department complaining of generalized weakness and flaccid paralysis of his lower extremities. The differential for such a complaint is extremely broad, and the symptoms can result from etiologies arising from the cerebral cortex, the spinal cord, peripheral nerves, the neuromuscular junction, or even the muscles themselves. Our patient was found to have an extremely low serum potassium concentration, as well as an electrocardiogram that revealed a prolonged QT interval and right bundle branch block. The etiology of these abnormalities and the patient's symptoms was found to be undiagnosed and uncontrolled hyperthyroidism from Grave's disease, which resulted in this dramatic presentation of thyrotoxic hypokalemic paralysis. WHY SHOULD AN EMERGENCY PHYSICIAN BE AWARE OF THIS?: This entity is common in Asia but still somewhat rare in the United States and other Western countries. Our case illustrates that careful history taking and a focused diagnostic evaluation, in conjunction with having an awareness of this disease, can help expedite diagnosis and management, as well as avoid unnecessary and potential harmful testing in the emergency department setting. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The role of extreme orbits in the global organization of periodic regions in parameter space for one dimensional maps

Science.gov (United States)

da Costa, Diogo Ricardo; Hansen, Matheus; Guarise, Gustavo; Medrano-T, Rene O.; Leonel, Edson D.

2016-04-01

We show that extreme orbits, trajectories that connect local maximum and minimum values of one dimensional maps, play a major role in the parameter space of dissipative systems dictating the organization for the windows of periodicity, hence producing sets of shrimp-like structures. Here we solve three fundamental problems regarding the distribution of these sets and give: (i) their precise localization in the parameter space, even for sets of very high periods; (ii) their local and global distributions along cascades; and (iii) the association of these cascades to complicate sets of periodicity. The extreme orbits are proved to be a powerful indicator to investigate the organization of windows of periodicity in parameter planes. As applications of the theory, we obtain some results for the circle map and perturbed logistic map. The formalism presented here can be extended to many other different nonlinear and dissipative systems.

Oceanic and atmospheric patterns during spawning periods prior to extreme catches of the Brazilian sardine (Sardinella brasiliensis in the southwest Atlantic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Helena Cachanhuk Soares

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Relative maxima and minima of landings of Brazilian sardine captured in the Southeast Brazil Bight (SBB were compared with oceanic and atmospheric composites relative to the spawning period in December and January, prior to these landings. Atmospheric and oceanic variables such as wind stress, Ekman transport, mixing index, sea surface temperature (SST, precipitation, outgoing long wave radiation and geopotential height were analyzed, revealing distinct climatological patterns in the SBB for these extreme catches that have not been described before. The system could be characterized by cooler SST composite anomaly (SSTA along the SBB as a response to increased cloud cover and reduced incidence of short-wave radiation, predominating one year before the Brazilian sardine catch maxima. This system can take on a different configuration in which positive SSTA condition in the SBB is associated with a less intense South Atlantic Convergence Zone displaced southwards one year before the period of minimum catch. Our results indicate that the spatial structure of the spawning habitat is influenced by specific ocean-atmosphere interactions rather than simply resulting from the choice of a stable environment. This climatic constraint strongly affects the interannual variability of the Brazilian sardine production.

Capability of simultaneous Rayleigh LiDAR and O2 airglow measurements in exploring the short period wave characteristics

Science.gov (United States)

Taori, Alok; Raghunath, Karnam; Jayaraman, Achuthan

We use combination of simultaneous measurements made with Rayleigh lidar and O2 airglow monitoring to improve lidar investigation capability to cover a higher altitude range. We feed instantaneous O2 airglow temperatures instead the model values at the top altitude for subsequent integration method of temperature retrieval using Rayleigh lidar back scattered signals. Using this method, errors in the lidar temperature estimates converges at higher altitudes indicating better altitude coverage compared to regular methods where model temperatures are used instead of real-time measurements. This improvement enables the measurements of short period waves at upper mesospheric altitudes (~90 km). With two case studies, we show that above 60 km the few short period wave amplitude drastically increases while, some of the short period wave show either damping or saturation. We claim that by using such combined measurements, a significant and cost effective progress can be made in the understanding of short period wave processes which are important for the coupling across the different atmospheric regions.

Impact of high temperature and short period annealing on SnS films deposited by E-beam evaporation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gedi, Sreedevi; Reddy, Vasudeva Reddy Minnam; Kang, Jeong-yoon; Jeon, Chan-Wook

2017-01-01

Highlights: • Preparation SnS films using electron beam evaporation at room temperature. • SnS films were annealed at a high temperaure for different short period of times. • The films showed highly oriented (111) planes with orthorhombic crystal structure. • Surface morphology showed bigger and faceted grains embedded in orthorombic. • The TEM confirmed that big orthorombic slabs had single-crystalline nature. - Abstract: Thin films of SnS were deposited on Mo-substrate using electron beam evaporation at room temperature. As-deposited SnS films were annealed at a constant high temperaure of 860 K for different short period of times, 1 min, 3 min, and 5 min. The impact of heat treatment period on the physical properties of SnS films was investigated using appropriate characterization tools. XRD analysis revealed that the films were highly oriented along (111) plane with orthorhombic crystal structure. Surface morphology of as-deposited SnS films showed an identical leaf texture where as the annealed films showed large orthorombic slab shape grains in adidition to the leaf shape grains, which indicates the significance of short period annealing at high temperature. The transmission electron microscopy confirmed that those large orthorombic slabs had single-crystalline nature. The results emphasized that the short period annealing treatment at high temperature stimulated the growth of film towards the single crystallinity.

Impact of high temperature and short period annealing on SnS films deposited by E-beam evaporation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gedi, Sreedevi; Reddy, Vasudeva Reddy Minnam; Kang, Jeong-yoon; Jeon, Chan-Wook, E-mail: cwjeon@ynu.ac.kr

2017-04-30

Highlights: • Preparation SnS films using electron beam evaporation at room temperature. • SnS films were annealed at a high temperaure for different short period of times. • The films showed highly oriented (111) planes with orthorhombic crystal structure. • Surface morphology showed bigger and faceted grains embedded in orthorombic. • The TEM confirmed that big orthorombic slabs had single-crystalline nature. - Abstract: Thin films of SnS were deposited on Mo-substrate using electron beam evaporation at room temperature. As-deposited SnS films were annealed at a constant high temperaure of 860 K for different short period of times, 1 min, 3 min, and 5 min. The impact of heat treatment period on the physical properties of SnS films was investigated using appropriate characterization tools. XRD analysis revealed that the films were highly oriented along (111) plane with orthorhombic crystal structure. Surface morphology of as-deposited SnS films showed an identical leaf texture where as the annealed films showed large orthorombic slab shape grains in adidition to the leaf shape grains, which indicates the significance of short period annealing at high temperature. The transmission electron microscopy confirmed that those large orthorombic slabs had single-crystalline nature. The results emphasized that the short period annealing treatment at high temperature stimulated the growth of film towards the single crystallinity.

Medical and psychosocial implications of adolescent extreme obesity – acceptance and effects of structured care, short: Youth with Extreme Obesity Study (YES)

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

Background Prevalence rates of overweight and obesity have increased in German children and adolescents in the last three decades. Adolescents with extreme obesity represent a distinct risk group. On the basis of data obtained by the German Child and Youth Survey (KiGGS) and the German district military offices we estimate that the group of extremely obese adolescents (BMI ≥ 35 kg/m2) currently encompasses approximately 200.000 adolescents aged 14 to 21 yrs. Conventional approaches focusing on weight reduction have largely proven futile for them. In addition, only a small percentage of adolescents with extreme obesity seek actively treatment for obesity while contributing disproportionately strong to health care costs. Because of somatic and psychiatric co-morbidities and social problems adolescents with extreme obesity require special attention within the medical care system. We have initiated the project “Medical and psychosocial implications of adolescents with extreme obesity - acceptance and effects of structured care, short: ‘Youths with Extreme Obesity Study (YES)’”, which aims at improving the medical care and social support structures for youths with extreme obesity in Germany. Methods/Design We focus on identification of these subjects (baseline examination) and their acceptance of diagnostic and subsequent treatment procedures. In a randomized controlled trial (RCT) we will investigate the effectiveness of a low key group intervention not focusing on weight loss but aimed at the provision of obesity related information, alleviation of social isolation, school and vocational integration and improvement of self-esteem in comparison to a control group treated in a conventional way with focus on weight loss. Interested individuals who fulfill current recommended criteria for weight loss surgery will be provided with a structured preparation and follow-up programs. All subjects will be monitored within a long-term observational study to

Assessing the short-term effects of an extreme storm on Mediterranean forest raptors

Science.gov (United States)

Martínez, José E.; Jiménez-Franco, María V.; Zuberogoitia, Iñigo; León-Ortega, Mario; Calvo, José F.

2013-04-01

Different species show different responses to natural disturbances, depending on their capacity to exploit the altered environment and occupy new niches. In the case of semi-arid Mediterranean areas, there is no information available on the response of bird communities to disturbance caused by extreme weather events. Here, we evaluate the short-term effects of a heavy snowfall and strong winds on three long-lived species of forest-dwelling raptor in a semi-arid Mediterranean region situated in the south-east of Spain. The loss of nests was significantly higher in the first and second years following the disturbance than in the third year. The three species studied exhibited great tolerance to the short-term effects of the storm since we found no differences in density or reproductive parameters between the nine breeding seasons prior to the disturbance and the three which immediately followed it. We suggest that the tolerance shown by these three species to windstorms in semi-arid Mediterranean zones could be an adaptive response, resulting from the climatic and human pressures which have prevailed from the Bronze Age to the present day.

STATISTICAL MODELLING OF FDC AND RETURN PERIODS TO CHARACTERISE QDF AND DESIGN THRESHOLD OF HYDROLOGICAL EXTREMES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Charles Onyutha

2012-12-01

Full Text Available In this paper, firstly, flow duration curves (FDCs for hydrological extremes were calibrated for a range of aggregation levels and seasons to provide compressed statistical information for water resources management at selected temporal scales and seasons. Secondly, instead of the common approach of using return periods, T (years for deriving discharge duration frequency (QDF relationships, the method of using exceedance frequencies, E (% was introduced so as to provide answer to important question like, what is the streamflow at a given aggregation level and selected E (%?. Thirdly, the concept of estimated design threshold (EDT was introduced and proposed for consideration in the risk analysis for design of water resources structures. This study was based on the long daily discharge record for the period 1950 – 2008 at station 1EF01 in Kenya, on the Nzoia river with watershed area of 12,676 km2 located in the North Eastern quadrant of Lake Victoria Nile Sub Basin. In the statistical modeling of FDCs and T (years, suitable extreme value distributions (EVD were selected and calibrated to fit nearly independent high flows and low flows. The FDCs and T-curves were used to determine the EDT. The FDCs were used to model the QDF relationships. To derive QDF relationships of hydrological extremes, for a given range of aggregation levels, extreme value analysis (EVA was carried out and suitable EVD selected. Next was the calibration of parameters of the EVD and analysis of relationship between the model parameters and aggregation levels. Finally, smooth mathematical relationships were derived using little but acceptable modifications to the model parameters. Such constructed QDF relationships can be used for various applications to estimate cumulative volumes of water available during droughts or floods at various aggregation levels or E (% of hydrological extremes. The EDT when obtained for a range of aggregation levels can also be used to

STATISTICAL MODELLING OF FDC AND RETURN PERIODS TO CHARACTERISE QDF AND DESIGN THRESHOLD OF HYDROLOGICAL EXTREMES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Charles Onyutha

2012-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, firstly, flow duration curves (FDCs for hydrological extremes were calibrated for a range of aggregation levels and seasons to provide compressed statistical information for water resources management at selected temporal scales and seasons. Secondly, instead of the common approach of using return periods, T (years for deriving discharge duration frequency (QDF relationships, the method of using exceedance frequencies, E (% was introduced so as to provide answer to important question like, what is the streamflow at a given aggregation level and selected E (%? Thirdly, the concept of estimated design threshold (EDT was introduced and proposed for consideration in the risk analysis for design of water resources structures. This study was based on the long daily discharge record for the period 1950 - 2008 at station 1EF01 in Kenya, on the Nzoia river with watershed area of 12,676 km² located in the North Eastern quadrant of Lake Victoria Nile Sub Basin. In the statistical modelling of FDCs and T (years, suitable extreme value distributions (EVD were selected and calibrated to fit nearly independent high flows and low flows. The FDCs and T-curves were used to determine the EDT. The FDCs were used to model the QDF relationships. To derive QDF relationships of hydrological extremes, for a given range of aggregation levels, extreme value analysis (EVA was carried out and suitable EVD selected. Next was the calibration of parameters of the EVD and analysis of relationship between the model parameters and aggregation levels. Finally, smooth mathematical relationships were derived using little but acceptable modifications to the model parameters. Such constructed QDF relationships can be used for various applications to estimate cumulative volumes of water available during droughts or floods at various aggregation levels or E (% of hydrological extremes. The EDT when obtained for a range of aggregation levels can also be used to understand

Uncertainties of the 50-year wind from short time series using generalized extreme value distribution and generalized Pareto distribution

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Mann, Jakob; Rathmann, Ole

2015-01-01

This study examines the various sources to the uncertainties in the application of two widely used extreme value distribution functions, the generalized extreme value distribution (GEVD) and the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). The study is done through the analysis of measurements from...... as a guideline for applying GEVD and GPD to wind time series of limited length. The data analysis shows that, with reasonable choice of relevant parameters, GEVD and GPD give consistent estimates of the return winds. For GEVD, the base period should be chosen in accordance with the occurrence of the extreme wind...

Reliability of mechanisms with periodic random modal frequencies using an extreme value-based approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Savage, Gordon J.; Zhang, Xufang; Son, Young Kap; Pandey, Mahesh D.

2016-01-01

Resonance in a dynamic system is to be avoided since it often leads to impaired performance, overstressing, fatigue fracture and adverse human reactions. Thus, it is necessary to know the modal frequencies and ensure they do not coincide with any applied periodic loadings. For a rotating planar mechanism, the coefficients in the mass and stiffness matrices are periodically varying, and if the underlying geometry and material properties are treated as random variables then the modal frequencies are both position-dependent and probabilistic. The avoidance of resonance is now a complex problem. Herein, free vibration analysis helps determine ranges of modal frequencies that in turn, identify the running speeds of the mechanism to be avoided. This paper presents an efficient and accurate sample-based approach to determine probabilistic minimum and maximum extremes of the fundamental frequencies and the angular positions of their occurrence. Then, given critical lower and upper frequency constraints it is straightforward to determine reliability in terms of probability of exceedance. The novelty of the proposed approach is that the original expensive and implicit mechanistic model is replaced by an explicit meta-model that captures the tolerances of the design variables over the entire range of angular positions: position-dependent eigenvalues can be found easily and quickly. Extreme-value statistics of the modal frequencies and extreme-value statistics of the angular positions are readily computed through MCS. Limit-state surfaces that connect the frequencies to the design variables may be easily constructed. Error analysis identifies three errors and the paper presents ways to control them so the methodology can be sufficiently accurate. A numerical example of a flexible four-bar linkage shows the proposed methodology has engineering applications. The impact of the proposed methodology is two-fold: it presents a safe-side analysis based on free vibration methods to

Survival of a planet in short-period Neptunian desert under effect of photoevaporation

Science.gov (United States)

Ionov, Dmitry E.; Pavlyuchenkov, Yaroslav N.; Shematovich, Valery I.

2018-06-01

Despite the identification of a great number of Jupiter-like and Earth-like planets at close-in orbits, the number of `hot Neptunes' - the planets with 0.6-18 times of Neptune mass and orbital periods less than 3 d - turned out to be very small. The corresponding region in the mass-period distribution was assigned as the `short-period Neptunian desert'. The common explanation of this fact is that the gaseous planet with few Neptune masses would not survive in the vicinity of host star due to intensive atmosphere outflow induced by heating from stellar radiation. To check this hypothesis, we performed numerical simulations of atmosphere dynamics for a hot Neptune. We adopt the previously developed self-consistent 1D model of hydrogen-helium atmosphere with suprathermal electrons accounted. The mass-loss rates as a function of orbital distances and stellar ages are presented. We conclude that the desert of short-period Neptunes could not be entirely explained by evaporation of planet atmosphere caused by the radiation from a host star. For the less massive Neptune-like planet, the estimated upper limits of the mass-loss may be consistent with the photoevaporation scenario, while the heavier Neptune-like planets could not lose the significant mass through this mechanism. We also found the significant differences between our numerical results and widely used approximate estimates of the mass-loss.

Role of short-term dispersal on the dynamics of Zika virus in an extreme idealized environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Victor M. Moreno

2017-02-01

Full Text Available In November 2015, El Salvador reported their first case of Zika virus (ZIKV infection, an event followed by an explosive outbreak that generated over 6000 suspected cases in a period of two months. National agencies began implementing control measures that included vector control and recommending an increased use of repellents. Further, in response to the alarming and growing number of microcephaly cases in Brazil, the importance of avoiding pregnancies for two years was stressed. In this paper, we explore the role of mobility within communities characterized by extreme poverty, crime and violence. Specifically, the role of short term mobility between two idealized interconnected highly distinct communities is explored in the context of ZIKV outbreaks. We make use of a Lagrangian modeling approach within a two-patch setting in order to highlight the possible effects that short-term mobility, within highly distinct environments, may have on the dynamics of ZIKV outbreak when the overall goal is to reduce the number of cases not just in the most affluent areas but everywhere. Outcomes depend on existing mobility patterns, levels of disease risk, and the ability of federal or state public health services to invest in resource limited areas, particularly in those where violence is systemic. The results of simulations in highly polarized and simplified scenarios are used to assess the role of mobility. It quickly became evident that matching observed patterns of ZIKV outbreaks could not be captured without incorporating increasing levels of heterogeneity. The number of distinct patches and variations on patch connectivity structure required to match ZIKV patterns could not be met within the highly aggregated model that is used in the simulations. Keywords: Vector-borne diseases, Zika virus, Residence times, Multi-patch model

Global predictability of temperature extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Coughlan de Perez, Erin; van Aalst, Maarten; Bischiniotis, Konstantinos; Mason, Simon; Nissan, Hannah; Pappenberger, Florian; Stephens, Elisabeth; Zsoter, Ervin; van den Hurk, Bart

2018-05-01

Extreme temperatures are one of the leading causes of death and disease in both developed and developing countries, and heat extremes are projected to rise in many regions. To reduce risk, heatwave plans and cold weather plans have been effectively implemented around the world. However, much of the world’s population is not yet protected by such systems, including many data-scarce but also highly vulnerable regions. In this study, we assess at a global level where such systems have the potential to be effective at reducing risk from temperature extremes, characterizing (1) long-term average occurrence of heatwaves and coldwaves, (2) seasonality of these extremes, and (3) short-term predictability of these extreme events three to ten days in advance. Using both the NOAA and ECMWF weather forecast models, we develop global maps indicating a first approximation of the locations that are likely to benefit from the development of seasonal preparedness plans and/or short-term early warning systems for extreme temperature. The extratropics generally show both short-term skill as well as strong seasonality; in the tropics, most locations do also demonstrate one or both. In fact, almost 5 billion people live in regions that have seasonality and predictability of heatwaves and/or coldwaves. Climate adaptation investments in these regions can take advantage of seasonality and predictability to reduce risks to vulnerable populations.

Spectra of short-period pulsars according to the hypothesis of the two types of pulsars

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Malov, I.F.

1985-01-01

The lack of low-frequency turnovers in the spectra of PSR 0531+21 and 1937+21 may be expl ned if the generation of radio emission in these pulsars occurs near the light cylinder. Differences of high frequency cut-offs and spectral inoices for long-period pulsars and short-period ones are discussed

Local short-duration precipitation extremes in Sweden: observations, forecasts and projections

Science.gov (United States)

Olsson, Jonas; Berg, Peter; Simonsson, Lennart

2015-04-01

Local short-duration precipitation extremes (LSPEs) are a key driver of hydrological hazards, notably in steep catchments with thin soils and in urban environments. The triggered floodings, landslides, etc., have large consequences for society in terms of both economy and health. Accurate estimations of LSPEs on both climatological time-scales (past, present, future) and in real-time is thus of great importance for improved hydrological predictions as well as design of constructions and infrastructure affected by hydrological fluxes. Analysis of LSPEs is, however, associated with various limitations and uncertainties. These are to a large degree associated with the small-scale nature of the meteorological processes behind LSPEs and the associated requirements on observation sensors as well as model descriptions. Some examples of causes for the limitations involved are given in the following. - Observations: High-resolution data sets available for LSPE analyses are often limited to either relatively long series from one or a few stations or relatively short series from larger station networks. Radar data have excellent resolutions in both time and space but the estimated local precipitation intensity is still highly uncertain. New and promising techniques (e.g. microwave links) are still in their infancy. - Weather forecasts (short-range): Although forecasts with the required spatial resolution for potential generation of LSPEs (around 2-4 km) are becoming operationally available, the actual forecast precision of LSPEs is largely unknown. Forecasted LSPEs may be displaced in time or, more critically, in space which strongly affects the possibility to assess hydrological risk. - Climate projections: The spatial resolution of the current RCM generation (around 25 km) is not sufficient for proper description of LSPEs. Statistical post-processing (i.e. downscaling) is required which adds substantial uncertainty to the final result. Ensemble generation of sufficiently

Thermotolerance and Photosystem II Behaviour in Co-occuring Temperate Tree Species Exposed to Short-term Extreme Heat Waves

Science.gov (United States)

Guha, A.; Warren, J.; Cummings, C.; Han, J.

2017-12-01

Thermal stress can induce irreversible photodamage with longer consequences for plant metabolism. We focused on photosystem II (PSII) behaviour to understand how this complex responds in different co-occuring temperate trees exposed to short-term extreme heat waves. The study was designed for understanding complex heat tolerance mechanisms in trees. During manipulative heat-wave experiments, we monitored instantaneous PSII performance and tracked both transient and chronic PSII damages using chlorophyll a fluorescence characteristics. Fluorescence signals were used to simulate PSII bioenergetic processes. The light (Fv'/Fm') and dark-adapted (Fv/Fm) fluorescence traits including fast induction kinetics (OJIP), electron transport rate, PSII operating efficiency and quenching capacities were significantly affected by the heat treatments. Loss in PSII efficiency was more apparent in species like black cottonwood, yellow poplar, walnuts and conifers, whereas oaks maintained relatively better PSII functions. The post-heat recovery of Fv/Fm varied across the studied species showing differential carry over effects. PSII down-regulation was one of dominant factors for the loss in operational photosynthesis during extreme heat wave events. Both light and dark-adapted fluorescence characteristics showed loss in photo-regulatory functions and photodamage. Some resilient species showed rapid recovery from transient PSII damage, whereas fingerprints of chronic PSII damage were observed in susceptibles. Thresholds for Fv/Fm and non-photochemical quenching were identified for the studied species. PSII malfunctioning was largely associated with the observed photosynthetic down-regulation during heat wave treatments, however, its physiological recovery should be a key factor to determine species resilience to short-term extreme heat wave events.

The first orbital parameters and period variation of the short-period eclipsing binary AQ Boo

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Shuai; Zhang, Liyun; Pi, Qingfeng; Han, Xianming L.; Zhang, Xiliang; Lu, Hongpeng; Wang, Daimei; Li, TongAn

2016-10-01

We obtained the first VRI CCD light curves of the short-period contact eclipsing binary AQ Boo, which was observed on March 22 and April 19 in 2014 at Xinglong station of National Astronomical Observatories, and on January 20, 21 and February 28 in 2015 at Kunming station of Yunnan Observatories of Chinese Academy of Sciences, China. Using our six newly obtained minima and the minima that other authors obtained previously, we revised the ephemeris of AQ Boo. By fitting the O-C (observed minus calculated) values of the minima, the orbital period of AQ Boo shows a decreasing tendency P˙ = - 1.47(0.17) ×10-7 days/year. We interpret the phenomenon by mass transfer from the secondary (more massive) component to the primary (less massive) one. By using the updated Wilson & Devinney program, we also derived the photometric orbital parameters of AQ Boo for the first time. We conclude that AQ Boo is a near contact binary with a low contact factor of 14.43%, and will become an over-contact system as the mass transfer continues.

Using Annual Data to Estimate the Public Health Impact of Extreme Temperatures.

Science.gov (United States)

Goggins, William B; Yang, Chunyuh; Hokama, Tomiko; Law, Lewis S K; Chan, Emily Y Y

2015-07-01

Short-term associations between both hot and cold ambient temperatures and higher mortality have been found worldwide. Few studies have examined these associations on longer time scales. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) were calculated for 1976-2012 for Hong Kong SAR, People's Republic of China, defining "annual" time periods in 2 ways: from May through April of the following year and from November through October. Annual frequency and severity of extreme temperatures were summarized by using a degree-days approach with extreme heat expressed as annual degree-days >29.3°C and cold as annual degree-days ASMR, with adjustment for long-term trends. Increases of 10 hot or 200 cold degree-days in an annual period, the approximate interquartile ranges for these variables, were significantly (all P's ≤ 0.011) associated with 1.9% or 3.1% increases, respectively, in the annual ASMR for the May-April analyses and with 2.2% or 2.8% increases, respectively, in the November-October analyses. Associations were stronger for noncancer and elderly mortality. Mortality increases associated with extreme temperature are not simply due to short-term forward displacement of deaths that would have occurred anyway within a few weeks. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

THE SHORT ROTATION PERIOD OF HI’IAKA, HAUMEA’S LARGEST SATELLITE

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hastings, Danielle M.; Margot, Jean-Luc [University of California, Los Angeles, Department of Earth, Planetary, and Space Sciences, 595 Charles Young Drive East, Los Angeles, CA 90095 (United States); Ragozzine, Darin [Florida Institute of Technology, Department of Physics and Space Sciences, 150 West University Boulevard, Melbourne, FL 32901 (United States); Fabrycky, Daniel C. [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of Chicago, 5640 South Ellis Avenue, Chicago, IL 60637 (United States); Burkhart, Luke D.; Holman, Matthew [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Fuentes, Cesar [Departamento de Astronomía, Universidad de Chile, Camino El Observatorio 1515, Santiago (Chile); Brown, Michael E., E-mail: dhastings@g.ucla.edu [California Institute of Technology, Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, MC 150-21, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States)

2016-12-01

Hi’iaka is the larger outer satellite of the dwarf planet Haumea. Using relative photometry from the Hubble Space Telescope and Magellan and a phase dispersion minimization analysis, we have identified the rotation period of Hi’iaka to be ∼9.8 hr (double peaked). This is ∼120 times faster than its orbital period, creating new questions about the formation of this system and possible tidal evolution. The rapid rotation suggests that Hi’iaka could have a significant obliquity and spin precession that could be visible in light curves within a few years. We then turn to an investigation of what we learn about the (currently unclear) formation of the Haumea system and family based on this unexpectedly rapid rotation rate. We explore the importance of the initial semimajor axis and rotation period in tidal evolution theory and find that they strongly influence the time required to despin to synchronous rotation, relevant to understanding a wide variety of satellite and binary systems. We find that despinning tides do not necessarily lead to synchronous spin periods for Hi’iaka, even if it formed near the Roche limit. Therefore, the short rotation period of Hi’iaka does not rule out significant tidal evolution. Hi’iaka’s spin period is also consistent with formation near its current location and spin-up due to Haumea-centric impactors.

Regional frequency analysis of extreme rainfall in Belgium based on radar estimates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Goudenhoofdt

2017-10-01

Full Text Available In Belgium, only rain gauge time series have been used so far to study extreme rainfall at a given location. In this paper, the potential of a 12-year quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE from a single weather radar is evaluated. For the period 2005–2016, 1 and 24 h rainfall extremes from automatic rain gauges and collocated radar estimates are compared. The peak intensities are fitted to the exponential distribution using regression in Q-Q plots with a threshold rank which minimises the mean squared error. A basic radar product used as reference exhibits unrealistic high extremes and is not suitable for extreme value analysis. For 24 h rainfall extremes, which occur partly in winter, the radar-based QPE needs a bias correction. A few missing events are caused by the wind drift associated with convective cells and strong radar signal attenuation. Differences between radar and gauge rainfall values are caused by spatial and temporal sampling, gauge underestimations and radar errors. Nonetheless the fit to the QPE data is within the confidence interval of the gauge fit, which remains large due to the short study period. A regional frequency analysis for 1 h duration is performed at the locations of four gauges with 1965–2008 records using the spatially independent QPE data in a circle of 20 km. The confidence interval of the radar fit, which is small due to the sample size, contains the gauge fit for the two closest stations from the radar. In Brussels, the radar extremes are significantly higher than the gauge rainfall extremes, but similar to those observed by an automatic gauge during the same period. The extreme statistics exhibit slight variations related to topography. The radar-based extreme value analysis can be extended to other durations.

Critical care at extremes of temperature: effects on patients, staff and equipment.

Science.gov (United States)

Hindle, Elise M; Henning, J D

2014-12-01

Modern travel and military operations have led to a significant increase in the need to provide medical care in extreme climates. Presently, there are few data on what happens to the doctor, their drugs and equipment when exposed to these extremes. A review was undertaken to find out the effects of 'extreme heat or cold' on anaesthesia and critical care; in addition, subject matter experts were contacted directly. Both extreme heat and extreme cold can cause a marked physiological response in a critically ill patient and the doctor treating these patients may also suffer a decrement in both physical and mental functioning. Equipment can malfunction when exposed to extremes of temperature and should ideally be stored and operated in a climatically controlled environment. Many drugs have a narrow range of temperatures in which they remain useable though some have been shown to remain effective if exposed to extremes of temperature for a short period of time. All personnel embarking on an expedition to an extreme temperature zone should be of sufficient physical robustness and ideally should have a period of acclimatisation which may help mitigate against some of the physiological effects of exposure to extreme heat or extreme cold. Expedition planners should aim to provide climatic control for drugs and equipment and should have logistical plans for replenishment of drugs and medical evacuation of casualties. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Short-period AM CVn systems as optical, X-ray and gravitational-wave sources

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nelemans, G.; Yungelson, L.; Portegies Zwart, S.F.

2004-01-01

We model the population of AM CVn systems in the Galaxy and discuss the detectability of these systems with optical, X-ray and gravitational-wave detectors. We concentrate on the short-period (P < 1500 s) systems, some of which are expected to be in a phase of direct-impact accretion. Using a

Multi-band photometric study of the short-period eclipsing binary GR Boo

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Daimei; Zhang, Liyun; Han, Xianming L.; Lu, Hongpeng

2017-05-01

We present BVRI light curves with complete phase coverage for the short-period (p = 0.377day) eclipsing binary star GR Boo. We carried out the observations using the SARA 90 cm telescope located at Kitt Peak National Observatory. We obtained six new light curve minimum times. By fitting all of the available O-C minimum times, we obtained an updated ephemeris that shows the orbital period of GR Boo is decreasing at a rate of P˙ = - 2.36 ×10-7 days/year. This decrease in its period can be explained by either mass transfer from the more massive component to the less massive one, or angular momentum exchange due to magnetic activities. We also obtained a set of revised orbital parameters using the Wilson & Devinney program. And finally, we concluded that GR Boo is a contact binary with a dark spot.

Evolution of periodicity in periodical cicadas.

Science.gov (United States)

Ito, Hiromu; Kakishima, Satoshi; Uehara, Takashi; Morita, Satoru; Koyama, Takuya; Sota, Teiji; Cooley, John R; Yoshimura, Jin

2015-09-14

Periodical cicadas (Magicicada spp.) in the USA are famous for their unique prime-numbered life cycles of 13 and 17 years and their nearly perfectly synchronized mass emergences. Because almost all known species of cicada are non-periodical, periodicity is assumed to be a derived state. A leading hypothesis for the evolution of periodicity in Magicicada implicates the decline in average temperature during glacial periods. During the evolution of periodicity, the determinant of maturation in ancestral cicadas is hypothesized to have switched from size dependence to time (period) dependence. The selection for the prime-numbered cycles should have taken place only after the fixation of periodicity. Here, we build an individual-based model of cicadas under conditions of climatic cooling to explore the fixation of periodicity. In our model, under cold environments, extremely long juvenile stages lead to extremely low adult densities, limiting mating opportunities and favouring the evolution of synchronized emergence. Our results indicate that these changes, which were triggered by glacial cooling, could have led to the fixation of periodicity in the non-periodical ancestors.

THE ELM SURVEY. III. A SUCCESSFUL TARGETED SURVEY FOR EXTREMELY LOW MASS WHITE DWARFS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brown, Warren R.; Kenyon, Scott J.; Kilic, Mukremin; Allende Prieto, Carlos

2012-01-01

Extremely low mass (ELM) white dwarfs (WDs) with masses ☉ are rare objects that result from compact binary evolution. Here, we present a targeted spectroscopic survey of ELM WD candidates selected by color. The survey is 71% complete and has uncovered 18 new ELM WDs. Of the seven ELM WDs with follow-up observations, six are short-period binaries and four have merger times less than 5 Gyr. The most intriguing object, J1741+6526, likely has either a pulsar companion or a massive WD companion making the system a possible supernova Type Ia or an Ia progenitor. The overall ELM survey has now identified 19 double degenerate binaries with <10 Gyr merger times. The significant absence of short orbital period ELM WDs at cool temperatures suggests that common envelope evolution creates ELM WDs directly in short period systems. At least one-third of the merging systems are halo objects, thus ELM WD binaries continue to form and merge in both the disk and the halo.

Periodization of Carbohydrate Intake: Short-Term Effect on Performance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laurie-Anne Marquet

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Background: “Sleep-low” consists of a sequential periodization of carbohydrate (CHO availability—low glycogen recovery after “train high” glycogen-depleting interval training, followed by an overnight-fast and light intensity training (“train low” the following day. This strategy leads to an upregulation of several exercise-responsive signaling proteins, but the chronic effect on performance has received less attention. We investigated the effects of short-term exposure to this strategy on endurance performance. Methods: Following training familiarization, 11 trained cyclists were divided into two groups for a one-week intervention—one group implemented three cycles of periodized CHO intake to achieve the sleep-low strategy over six training sessions (SL, CHO intake: 6 g·kg−1·day−1, whereas the control group consumed an even distribution of CHO over the day (CON. Tests were a 2 h submaximal ride and a 20 km time trial. Results: SL improved their performance (mean: +3.2%; p < 0.05 compared to CON. The improvement was associated with a change in pacing strategy with higher power output during the second part of the test. No change in substrate utilization was observed after the training period for either group. Conclusion: Implementing the “sleep-low” strategy for one week improved performance by the same magnitude previously seen in a three-week intervention, without any significant changes in selected markers of metabolism.

Periodization of Carbohydrate Intake: Short-Term Effect on Performance

Science.gov (United States)

Marquet, Laurie-Anne; Hausswirth, Christophe; Molle, Odeline; Hawley, John A.; Burke, Louise M.; Tiollier, Eve; Brisswalter, Jeanick

2016-01-01

Background: “Sleep-low” consists of a sequential periodization of carbohydrate (CHO) availability—low glycogen recovery after “train high” glycogen-depleting interval training, followed by an overnight-fast and light intensity training (“train low”) the following day. This strategy leads to an upregulation of several exercise-responsive signaling proteins, but the chronic effect on performance has received less attention. We investigated the effects of short-term exposure to this strategy on endurance performance. Methods: Following training familiarization, 11 trained cyclists were divided into two groups for a one-week intervention—one group implemented three cycles of periodized CHO intake to achieve the sleep-low strategy over six training sessions (SL, CHO intake: 6 g·kg−1·day−1), whereas the control group consumed an even distribution of CHO over the day (CON). Tests were a 2 h submaximal ride and a 20 km time trial. Results: SL improved their performance (mean: +3.2%; p < 0.05) compared to CON. The improvement was associated with a change in pacing strategy with higher power output during the second part of the test. No change in substrate utilization was observed after the training period for either group. Conclusion: Implementing the “sleep-low” strategy for one week improved performance by the same magnitude previously seen in a three-week intervention, without any significant changes in selected markers of metabolism. PMID:27897989

Surface electron structure of short-period semiconductor superlattice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bartos, I.; Czech Academy Science, Prague,; Strasser, T.; Schattke, W.

2004-01-01

Full text: Semiconductor superlattices represent man-made crystals with unique physical properties. By means of the directed layer-by-layer molecular epitaxy growth their electric properties can be tailored (band structure engineering). Longer translational periodicity in the growth direction is responsible for opening of new electron energy gaps (minigaps) with surface states and resonances localized at superlattice surfaces. Similarly as for the electron structure of the bulk, a procedure enabling to modify the surface electron structure of superlattices is desirable. Short-period superlattice (GaAs) 2 (AlAs) 2 with unreconstructed (100) surface is investigated in detail. Theoretical description in terms of full eigenfunctions of individual components has to be used. The changes of electron surface state energies governed by the termination of a periodic crystalline potential, predicted on simple models, are confirmed for this system. Large surface state shifts are found in the lowest minigap of the superlattice when this is terminated in four different topmost layer configurations. The changes should be observable in angle resolved photoelectron spectroscopy as demonstrated in calculations based on the one step model of photoemission. Surface state in the center of the two dimensional Brillouin zone moves from the bottom of the minigap (for the superlattice terminated by two bilayers of GaAs) to its top (for the superlattice terminated by two bilayers of AlAs) where it becomes a resonance. No surface state/resonance is found for a termination with one bilayer of AlAs. The surface state bands behave similarly in the corresponding gaps of the k-resolved section of the electron band structure. The molecular beam epitaxy, which enables to terminate the superlattice growth with atomic layer precision, provides a way of tuning the superlattice surface electron structure by purely geometrical means. The work was supported by the Grant Agency of the Academy of Sciences

Estimation of return levels against different return periods of extreme annual rainfall over Baluchistan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ali, M.; Jan, B.; Iqbal, J.

2012-01-01

Unprecedented heavy monsoon rainfall began in the last week of July 2010 in the Northern part of our country, causes floods in Baluchistan and Sindh. As the high frequency rainfall events are a significant cause of current severe flooding in Pakistan and any fluctuation in the level of such events may cause huge economic losses as well as social problem, urban structures (i.e. dams, urban drainage systems and flood). Statistical distributions are used to identify extremes of annual rainfall of different cities of Baluchistan (Quetta, Sibbi, Khuzdar, Lasbella, Dalbandin and Pasni) with their return periods. Analysis predicts that Gumbel Max. (GM) Distribution is the best fitted distribution for Sibbi and Lasbella while the GEV distribution is the best fitted for Quetta, Khuzdar, Dalbandin and Pasni. The analysis also suggests that different cities of Baluchistan have 30-years return period for getting more than 90 mm average daily rainfall while they have 100-years return period for receiving more than 118 mm daily rainfall. This suggests for suitable flood forecasting and improving the river structure in Baluchistan, Pakistan. (author)

Short-Period Binary Stars: Observations, Analyses, and Results

CERN Document Server

Milone, Eugene F; Hobill, David W

2008-01-01

Short-period binaries run the gamut from widely separated stars to black-hole pairs; in between are systems that include neutron stars and white dwarfs, and partially evolved systems such as tidally distorted and over-contact systems. These objects represent stages of evolution of binary stars, and their degrees of separation provide critical clues to how their evolutionary paths differ from that of single stars. The widest and least distorted systems provide astronomers with the essential precise data needed to study all stars: mass and radius. The interactions of binary star components, on the other hand, provide a natural laboratory to observe how the matter in these stars behaves under different and often varying physical conditions. Thus, cataclysmic variables with and without overpoweringly strong magnetic fields, and stars with densities from that found in the Sun to the degenerate matter of white dwarfs and the ultra-compact states of neutron stars and black holes are all discussed. The extensive inde...

Characterization And State-Of-The-Art Modeling Of Extreme Precipitation Events Over Africa During The Historical Period

Science.gov (United States)

Gibba, P.; Sylla, M. B.

2015-12-01

The ability of the state-of-the-art climate models to reproduce the mean spatial characteristics of extreme precipitation indices over Africa is evaluated. The ensembles of eight precipitation-based indices as defined by ETCCDI were extracted from seventeen CMIP5 GCMs and twelve CORDEX RCMs simulations based on absolute and percentile (95th) thresholds and computed from the 1975 to 2004 historical period. Daily precipitation indices calculated from GPCP and TRMM satellite-derived observation datasets during the period 1997 to 2012 and 1998 to 2011 respectively were also employed in this study for model validation. Results of spatial representation of the frequency of extreme precipitation events (R1mm, CDD, CWD and R95p) highlight a generally good consistency between the two observations. Equally, in the regional analysis some similarities exist in their median and interquartile (25th and 75th percentile) spread especially for CDD, CWD and R95p for most regions. In the associated intensities (SDII, RX5day, R95 and R95ptot), results indicate large spatial differences between the two observational datasets, with finer resolution TRMM generating higher rainfall intensities than the coarser resolution GPCP. TRMM has also demonstrated higher median and interquartile range as compared to GPCP. The CORDEX RCMs and CMIP5 GCMs simulations have estimated more number of extreme precipitation events, while underestimated the intensities. The differences between the models and observations can be as large as the typical model interquartile spread of the ensembles for some indices (R1mm, CWD, SDII and R95) in some regions. Meanwhile, CORDEX estimations are generally closer to the observations than CMIP5 in reproducing the frequency of extreme rainfall indices. For the estimation of rainfall intensities, CORDEX simulations are in most cases more consistence with TRMM observations whilst the CMIP5 GCMs simulations are closer to GPCP observations.

Highly efficient periodically poled KTP-isomorphs with large apertures and extreme domain aspect-ratios

Science.gov (United States)

Canalias, Carlota; Zukauskas, Andrius; Tjörnhamman, Staffan; Viotti, Anne-Lise; Pasiskevicius, Valdas; Laurell, Fredrik

2018-02-01

Since the early 1990's, a substantial effort has been devoted to the development of quasi-phased-matched (QPM) nonlinear devices, not only in ferroelectric oxides like LiNbO3, LiTaO3 and KTiOPO4 (KTP), but also in semiconductors as GaAs, and GaP. The technology to implement QPM structures in ferroelectric oxides has by now matured enough to satisfy the most basic frequency-conversion schemes without substantial modification of the poling procedures. Here, we present a qualitative leap in periodic poling techniques that allows us to demonstrate devices and frequency conversion schemes that were deemed unfeasible just a few years ago. Thanks to our short-pulse poling and coercive-field engineering techniques, we are able to demonstrate large aperture (5 mm) periodically poled Rb-doped KTP devices with a highly-uniform conversion efficiency over the whole aperture. These devices allow parametric conversion with energies larger than 60 mJ. Moreover, by employing our coercive-field engineering technique we fabricate highlyefficient sub-µm periodically poled devices, with periodicities as short as 500 nm, uniform over 1 mm-thick crystals, which allow us to realize mirrorless optical parametric oscillators with counter-propagating signal and idler waves. These novel devices present unique spectral and tuning properties, superior to those of conventional OPOs. Furthermore, our techniques are compatible with KTA, a KTP isomorph with extended transparency in the mid-IR range. We demonstrate that our highly-efficient PPKTA is superior both for mid-IR and for green light generation - as a result of improved transmission properties in the visible range. Our KTP-isomorph poling techniques leading to highly-efficient QPM devices will be presented. Their optical performance and attractive damage thresholds will be discussed.

Hydrostatic pressure and strain effects in short period InN/GaN superlattices

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gorczyca, I.; Suski, T.; Christensen, Niels Egede

2012-01-01

The electronic structures of short-period pseudomorphically grown superlattices (SLs) of the form mInN/nGaN are calculated and the band gap variation with the well and the barrier thicknesses is discussed including hydrostatic pressure effects. The calculated band gap shows a strong dependence...... strongly on the strain conditions and SL geometry, but weakly on the applied external hydrostatic pressure....

Epitaxial nanowire formation in metamorphic GaAs/GaPAs short-period superlattices

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Nan; Ahrenkiel, S. Phillip

2017-07-01

Metamorphic growth presents routes to novel nanomaterials with unique properties that may be suitable for a range of applications. We discuss self-assembled, epitaxial nanowires formed during metalorganic chemical vapor deposition of metamorphic GaAs/GaPAs short-period superlattices. The heterostructures incorporate strain-engineered GaPAs compositional grades on 6°-B miscut GaAs substrates. Lateral diffusion within the SPS into vertically aligned, three-dimensional columns results in nanowires extending along A directions with a lateral period of 70-90 nm. The microstructure is probed by transmission electron microscopy to confirm the presence of coherent GaAs nanowires within GaPAs barriers. The compositional profile is inferred from analysis of {200} dark-field image contrast and lattice images.

Propagation of short-period gravity waves at high-latitudes during the MaCWAVE winter campaign

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Nielsen

2006-07-01

Full Text Available As part of the MaCWAVE (Mountain and Convective Waves Ascending Vertically winter campaign an all-sky monochromatic CCD imager has been used to investigate the properties of short-period mesospheric gravity waves at high northern latitudes. Sequential measurements of several nightglow emissions were made from Esrange, Sweden, during a limited period from 27–31 January 2003. Coincident wind measurements over the altitude range (~80–100 km using two meteor radar systems located at Esrange and Andenes have been used to perform a novel investigation of the intrinsic properties of five distinct wave events observed during this period. Additional lidar and MSIS model temperature data have been used to investigate their nature (i.e. freely propagating or ducted. Four of these extensive wave events were found to be freely propagating with potential source regions to the north of Scandinavia. No evidence was found for strong orographic forcing by short-period waves in the airglow emission layers. The fifth event was most unusual exhibiting an extensive, but much smaller and variable wavelength pattern that appeared to be embedded in the background wind field. Coincident wind measurements indicated the presence of a strong shear suggesting this event was probably due to a large-scale Kelvin-Helmholtz instability.

THE ELM SURVEY. III. A SUCCESSFUL TARGETED SURVEY FOR EXTREMELY LOW MASS WHITE DWARFS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brown, Warren R.; Kenyon, Scott J. [Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, 60 Garden St., Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Kilic, Mukremin [Homer L. Dodge Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Oklahoma, 440 W. Brooks St., Norman, OK 73019 (United States); Allende Prieto, Carlos, E-mail: wbrown@cfa.harvard.edu, E-mail: skenyon@cfa.harvard.edu, E-mail: kilic@ou.edu, E-mail: callende@iac.es [Instituto de Astrofisica de Canarias, E-38205, La Laguna, Tenerife (Spain)

2012-01-10

Extremely low mass (ELM) white dwarfs (WDs) with masses < 0.25 M{sub Sun} are rare objects that result from compact binary evolution. Here, we present a targeted spectroscopic survey of ELM WD candidates selected by color. The survey is 71% complete and has uncovered 18 new ELM WDs. Of the seven ELM WDs with follow-up observations, six are short-period binaries and four have merger times less than 5 Gyr. The most intriguing object, J1741+6526, likely has either a pulsar companion or a massive WD companion making the system a possible supernova Type Ia or an Ia progenitor. The overall ELM survey has now identified 19 double degenerate binaries with <10 Gyr merger times. The significant absence of short orbital period ELM WDs at cool temperatures suggests that common envelope evolution creates ELM WDs directly in short period systems. At least one-third of the merging systems are halo objects, thus ELM WD binaries continue to form and merge in both the disk and the halo.

Closeout of IE Bulletin 79-12: short-period scrams at boiling-water reactors. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

DeBevac, C.J.; Holland, R.A.

1985-03-01

IE Circular 77-07 was issued on April 14, 1977 because of the occurrence of short period scram events at Dresden Unit 2 on December 28, 1976 and at Monticello on February 23, 1977. The circular advised BWR plants to revise their control rod withdrawal sequences and operating procedures to reduce the likelihood of future short period scrams. However, similar events continued to occur. These included events at Oyster Creek on December 14, 1978; at Browns Ferry Unit 1 on January 18, 1979; and at Hatch Unit 1 on January 31, 1979. As a result of these events, IE Bulletin 79-12 was issued on May 31, 1979. This bulletin required a written response from licensees of GE-designed BWRs regarding specific actions listed in the bulletin. All of the licensees responded in a satisfactory manner. No similar events have been reported since IE Bulletin 79-12 was issued

Magnetoresistance calculations for a two-dimensional electron gas with unilateral short-period strong modulation

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Výborný, Karel; Smrčka, Ludvík

2002-01-01

Roč. 66, č. 20 (2002), s. 205318-1 - 205318-8 ISSN 0163-1829 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA202/01/0754 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1010914 Keywords : magnetoresistance * short-period superlattices * two-dimensional electron gas Subject RIV: BM - Solid Matter Physics ; Magnetism Impact factor: 3.327, year: 2002

Extremely short light pulses: generation; diagnostics, and application in attosecond spectroscopy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iakovlev, V.

2003-06-01

The scope of the thesis includes the design of chirped mirrors, as well as theoretical investigations in the fields of high-harmonic generation and laser-dressed Auger decay, the unifying aspect being the presence of extremely short light pulses and physical processes taking place on a femtosecond scale. The main results of the research are the following: 1) It was shown that efficient global optimization of chirped mirrors is possible with an adapted version of the memetic algorithm (also known as hybrid genetic algorithm). 2) The analysis of high-harmonic spectra generated by a few-cycle laser pulse can reveal the electric field of the pulse in the vicinity of its envelope peak. The method developed for this purpose can also be regarded as a method to measure the carrier-envelope phase of laser pulses, which is more robust and has a larger range of applicability compared to the simple analysis of the cut-off region of high-harmonic spectra. 3) A quantum theory of time-resolved Auger spectroscopy was developed. Based on the essential states method, closed-form expressions for probability amplitudes were derived. The theory lays the foundation for the interpretation of experiments that probe electronic motion during atomic excitation, deexcitation, and ionization. (author)

Angiography of the upper extremity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Janevski, B.K.

1982-01-01

This thesis provides a description of the technical and medical aspects of arteriography of the upper extremity and an extensive analysis of the angiographic anatomy and pathology of 750 selective studies performed in more than 500 patients. A short historical review is provided of angiography as a whole and of arteriography of the hand in particular. The method of percutaneous transfemoral catheterization of the arteries of the upper extremity and particularly the arteries of the hand is considered, discussing the problems the angiographer encounters frequently, describing the angiographic complications which may occur and emphasizing the measures to keep them to a minimum. The use of vasodilators in hand angiography is discussed. A short description of the embryological patterns persisting in the arteries of the arm is included in order to understand the congenital variations of the arteries of the upper extremity. The angiographic patterns and clinical aspects of the most common pathological processes involving the arteries of the upper extremities are presented. Special attention is paid to the correlation between angiography and pathology. (Auth.)

Seasonal precipitation extreme indices in mainland Portugal: trends and variability in the period 1941-2007

Science.gov (United States)

Santo, Fátima E.; Ramos, Alexandre M.; de Lima, M. Isabel P.; Trigo, Ricardo M.

2013-04-01

Changes in the precipitation regimes are expected to be accompanied by variations in the occurrence of extreme events, which in turn could be related to low frequency variability. The impact on the society and environment requires that the regional specificities are understood. For mainland Portugal, this work reports the results of the analysis of trends in selected precipitation indices calculated from daily precipitation data from 57 meteorological stations, recorded in the period 1941-2007; additionally we have also investigated the correlations between these indices and several modes of low frequency variability over the area. We focus on exploring regional differences and seasonal variations in the intensity, frequency and duration of extreme precipitation events. The precipitation indices were assessed at the seasonal scale and calculated at both the station and regional scales. Results sometimes highlight marked changes in seasonal precipitation and show that: i) trends in spring and autumn have opposite signals: statistically significant drying trends in the spring are accompanied by a reduction in precipitation extremes; in autumn, wetting trends are detected for all precipitation indices, although overall they are not significant at the 5% level; ii) there seems to be a tendency for a reduction in the duration of the rainy season; iii) the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the mode of variability that has the highest influence on precipitation extremes over mainland Portugal, particularly in the winter and autumn, and is one of the most important teleconnection patterns in all seasons. This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) through project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010).

Nature of short-period microtremors on the cliff-like ground. part 6; Gakechi kinbo no tanshuki bido. 6

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Maiguma, T; Kimura, Y [Waseda University, Tokyo (Japan). School of Science and Engineering; Yasui, [Toda Corp., Tokyo, (Japan)

1997-10-22

Short-period microtremors were observed on the cliff-like ground to discuss vibration characteristics of the ground. It is known that damage of an earthquake becomes especially serious in the vicinity of the cliff-like ground with steep slopes. The present investigation has performed observations on short-period microtremors in two cliff-like grounds, one with a height of about 17 m and an inclination angle of about 55 degrees, and another with a height of 11 m and an inclination angle of about 60 degrees. The areas of the investigation are the Musashino tableland of the Pleistocene era covered by the Kanto loam bed, and the Oritate area (a farm land) with the cliff-like ground which has been formed as a result of erosion of a river terrace consisted of a gravel bed. The observation was carried out with nine moving coil type vibration converters having a natural period of one second installed for horizontal movements and seven converters installed for vertical movements. The result of the investigation revealed that, at the Musashino tableland, no noticeable influence of the cliff-like ground was recognized in the short-period microtremors; at the Oritate area, the spectra of the horizontal movements vary largely with vibrating directions; and the cliff effect can be seen in microtremors with frequencies from 5 Hz to 9 Hz. 5 refs., 9 figs.

Non-radial oscillations of rotating stars and their relevance to the short-period oscillations of cataclysmic variables

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Papaloizou, J.; Pringle, J.E.

1978-01-01

The usual hypothesis, that the short-period coherent oscillations seen in cataclysmic variables are attributable to g modes in a slowly rotating white dwarf, is considered. It is shown that this hypothesis is untenable for three main reasons: (i) the observed periods are too short for reasonable white dwarf models, (ii) the observed variability of the oscillations is too rapid and (iii) the expected rotation of the white dwarf, due to accretion, invalidates the slow rotation assumption on which standard g-mode theory is based. The low-frequency spectrum of a rotating pulsating star is investigated taking the effects of rotation fully into account. In this case there are two sets of low-frequency modes, the g modes, and modes similar to Rossby waves in the Earth's atmosphere and oceans, which are designated r modes. Typical periods for such modes are 1/m times the rotation period of the white dwarfs outer layers (m is the aximuthal wavenumber). It is concluded that non-radial oscillations of rotating white dwarfs can account for the properties of the oscillations seen in dwarf novae. Application of these results to other systems is also discussed. (author)

Studying Short-Period Comets and Long-Period Comets Detected by WISE/NEOWISE

Science.gov (United States)

Kramer, Emily A.; Fernández, Yanga R.; Bauer, James M.; Stevenson, Rachel; Mainzer, Amy K.; Grav, Tommy; Masiero, Joseph; Walker, Russell G.; Lisse, Carey M.

2014-11-01

The Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) mission surveyed the sky in four infrared wavelength bands (3.4, 4.6, 12 and 22-micron) between January 2010 and February 2011 [1, 2]. During the mission, WISE serendipitously observed 160 comets, including 21 newly discovered objects. About 89 of the comets observed by WISE displayed a significant dust tail in the 12 and 22-micron (thermal emission) bands, showing a wide range of activity levels and dust morphology. Since the observed objects are a mix of both long-period comets (LPCs) and short-period comets (SPCs), differences in their activity can be used to better understand the thermal evolution that each of these populations has undergone. For the comets that displayed a significant dust tail, we have estimated the sizes and ages of the particles using dynamical models based on the Finson-Probstein method [3, 4]. For a selection of 40 comets, we have then compared these models to the data using a novel tail-fitting method that allows the best-fit model to be chosen analytically rather than subjectively. For comets that were observed multiple times by WISE, the dust tail particle properties were estimated separately, and then compared. We find that the dust tails of both LPCs and SPCs are primarily comprised of ~mm to cm sized particles, which were the result of emission that occurred several months to several years prior to the observations. The LPCs nearly all have strong dust emission close to the comet's perihelion distance, and the SPCs mostly have strong dust emission close to perihelion, but some have strong dust emission well before perihelion. Acknowledgments: This publication makes use of data products from (1) WISE, which is a joint project of UCLA and JPL/Caltech, funded by NASA; and (2) NEOWISE, which is a project of JPL/Caltech, funded by the Planetary Science Division of NASA. EK was supported by a NASA Earth and Space Sciences Fellowship. RS gratefully acknowledges support from the NASA

Short-rotation woody-crops program. Quarterly progress report for period ending August 31, 1981

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cushman, J.H.; Ranney, J.W.

1982-04-01

Progress of twenty-one projects in the Short Rotation Woody Crops Program is summarized for the period June 1 through August 31, 1981. Individual quarterly reports included from each of the projects discuss accomplishments within specific project objectives and identify recent papers and publications resulting from the research. The major program activities are species screening and genetic selection, stand establishment and cultural treatment, and harvest, collection, transportation, and storage.

Short-rotation woody-crops program. Quarterly progress report for period ending May 31, 1981

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cushman, J.H.; Ranney, J.W.

1982-04-01

Progress of twenty projects in the Short Rotation Woody Crops Program is summarized for the period March 1 through May 31, 1981. Individual quarterly reports included from each of the projects discuss accomplishments within specific project objectives and identify recent papers and publications resulting from the research. The major project activities are species screening and genetic selection, stand establishment and cultural treatment, and harvest, collection, transportation, and storage.

Short period sound speed oscillation measured by intensive XBT survey and its role on GNSS/acoustic positioning

Science.gov (United States)

Kido, M.; Matsui, R.; Imano, M.; Honsho, C.

2017-12-01

In the GNSS/acoustic measurement, sound speed in ocean plays a key role of accuracy of final positioning. We have shown than longer period sound speed undulation can be properly estimated from GNSS-A analysis itself in our previous work. In this work, we have carried out intensive XBT measurement to get temporal variation of sound speed in short period to be compared with GNSS-A derived one. In the individual temperature profile obtained by intensive XBT measurements (10 minutes interval up to 12 times of cast), clear vertical oscillation up to 20 m of amplitude in the shallow part were observed. These can be interpreted as gravitational internal wave with short-period and hence short wavelength anomaly. Kido et al. (2007) proposed that horizontal variation of the ocean structure can be considered employing five or more transponders at once if the structure is expressed by two quantities, i.e., horizontal gradient in x/y directions. However, this hypothesis requires that the variation must has a large spatial scale (> 2-5km) so that the horizontal variation can be regarded as linear within the extent of acoustic path to seafloor transponders. Therefore the wavelength of the above observed internal wave is getting important. The observed period of internal wave was 30-60 minute. However its wavelength cannot be directly measured. It must be estimate based on density profile of water column. In the comparison between sound speed change and positioning, the delay of their phases were 90 degree, which indicates that most steep horizontal slope of internal wave correspond to largest apparent positioning shift.

Complexity analyses show two distinct types of nonlinear dynamics in short heart period variability recordings

Science.gov (United States)

Porta, Alberto; Bari, Vlasta; Marchi, Andrea; De Maria, Beatrice; Cysarz, Dirk; Van Leeuwen, Peter; Takahashi, Anielle C. M.; Catai, Aparecida M.; Gnecchi-Ruscone, Tomaso

2015-01-01

Two diverse complexity metrics quantifying time irreversibility and local prediction, in connection with a surrogate data approach, were utilized to detect nonlinear dynamics in short heart period (HP) variability series recorded in fetuses, as a function of the gestational period, and in healthy humans, as a function of the magnitude of the orthostatic challenge. The metrics indicated the presence of two distinct types of nonlinear HP dynamics characterized by diverse ranges of time scales. These findings stress the need to render more specific the analysis of nonlinear components of HP dynamics by accounting for different temporal scales. PMID:25806002

A high-average power tapered FEL amplifier at submillimeter frequencies using sheet electron beams and short-period wigglers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bidwell, S.W.; Radack, D.J.; Antonsen, T.M. Jr.; Booske, J.H.; Carmel, Y.; Destler, W.W.; Granatstein, V.L.; Levush, B.; Latham, P.E.; Zhang, Z.X.

1990-01-01

A high-average-power FEL amplifier operating at submillimeter frequencies is under development at the University of Maryland. Program goals are to produce a CW, ∼1 MW, FEL amplifier source at frequencies between 280 GHz and 560 GHz. To this end, a high-gain, high-efficiency, tapered FEL amplifier using a sheet electron beam and a short-period (superconducting) wiggler has been chosen. Development of this amplifier is progressing in three stages: (1) beam propagation through a long length (∼1 m) of short period (λ ω = 1 cm) wiggler, (2) demonstration of a proof-of-principle amplifier experiment at 98 GHz, and (3) designs of a superconducting tapered FEL amplifier meeting the ultimate design goal specifications. 17 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

Variability of extreme flap loads during turbine operation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ronold, K O [Det Norske Veritas, Hoevik (Norway); Larsen, G C [Risoe National Lab., Wind Energy and Atmospheric Physics Dept., Roskilde (Denmark)

1999-03-01

The variability of extreme flap loads is of utmost importance for design of wind-turbine rotor blades. The flap loads of interest consist of the flap-wise bendin moment response at the blade root whose variability in the short-term, for a given wind climate, can be represented by a stationary process. A model for the short-term bending moment process is presented, and the distribution of its associated maxima is derived. A model for the wind climate is given in terms of the probability distributions for the 10-minute mean wind speed and the standard deviation of the arbitrary wind speed. This is used to establish the distribution of the largest flap-wise bending moment in a specific reference period, and it is outlined how a characteristic bending moment for use in design can be extracted from this distribution. The application of the presented distribution models is demonstrated by a numerical example for a site-specific wind turbine. (au)

Waveform correlation and coherence of short-period seismic noise within Gauribidanur array with implications for event detection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bhadauria, Y.S.; Arora, S.K.

1995-01-01

In continuation with our effort to model the short-period micro seismic noise at the seismic array at Gauribidanur (GBA), we have examined in detail time-correlation and spectral coherence of the noise field within the array space. This has implications of maximum possible improvement in signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) relevant to event detection. The basis of this study is about a hundred representative wide-band noise samples collected from GBA throughout the year 1992. Both time-structured correlation as well as coherence of the noise waveforms are found to be practically independent of the inter element distances within the array, and they exhibit strong temporal and spectral stability. It turns out that the noise is largely incoherent at frequencies ranging upwards from 2 Hz; the coherency coefficient tends to increase in the lower frequency range attaining a maximum of 0.6 close to 0.5 Hz. While the maximum absolute cross-correlation also diminishes with increasing frequency, the zero-lag cross-correlation is found to be insensitive to frequency filtering regardless of the pass band. An extremely small value of -0.01 of the zero-lag correlation and a comparatively higher year-round average estimate at 0.15 of the maximum absolute time-lagged correlation yields an SNR improvement varying between a probable high of 4.1 and a low of 2.3 for the full 20-element array. 19 refs., 6 figs

THE VERY SHORT PERIOD M DWARF BINARY SDSS J001641-000925

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Davenport, James R. A.; Becker, Andrew C.; Hawley, Suzanne L.; Gunning, Heather C.; Munshi, Ferah A.; Albright, Meagan [Department of Astronomy, University of Washington, Box 351580, Seattle, WA 98195 (United States); West, Andrew A. [Astronomy Department, Boston University, 725 Commonwealth Avenue, Boston, MA 02215 (United States); Bochanski, John J. [Astronomy and Astrophysics Department, Pennsylvania State University, 525 Davey Laboratory, University Park, PA 16802 (United States); Holtzman, Jon [Department of Astronomy, New Mexico State University, Box 30001, Las Cruces, NM 88003 (United States); Hilton, Eric J., E-mail: jrad@astro.washington.edu [Department of Geology and Geophysics and Institute for Astronomy, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI 96822 (United States)

2013-02-10

We present follow-up observations and analysis of the recently discovered short period low-mass eclipsing binary, SDSS J001641-000925. With an orbital period of 0.19856 days, this system has one of the shortest known periods for an M dwarf binary system. Medium-resolution spectroscopy and multi-band photometry for the system are presented. Markov Chain Monte Carlo modeling of the light curves and radial velocities yields estimated masses for the stars of M {sub 1} = 0.54 {+-} 0.07 M {sub Sun} and M {sub 2} = 0.34 {+-} 0.04 M {sub Sun }, and radii of R {sub 1} = 0.68 {+-} 0.03 R {sub Sun} and R {sub 2} = 0.58 {+-} 0.03 R {sub Sun }, respectively. This solution places both components above the critical Roche overfill limit, providing strong evidence that SDSS J001641-000925 is the first verified M-dwarf contact binary system. Within the follow-up spectroscopy we find signatures of non-solid body rotation velocities, which we interpret as evidence for mass transfer or loss within the system. In addition, our photometry samples the system over nine years, and we find strong evidence for period decay at the rate of P-dot {approx} 8 s yr{sup -1}. Both of these signatures raise the intriguing possibility that the system is in over-contact, and actively losing angular momentum, likely through mass loss. This places SDSS J001641-000925 as not just the first M-dwarf over-contact binary, but one of the few systems of any spectral type known to be actively undergoing coalescence. Further study of SDSS J001641-000925 is ongoing to verify the nature of the system, which may prove to be a unique astrophysical laboratory.

Ultra-short-period WC/SiC multilayer coatings for x-ray applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fernández-Perea, Mónica; Pivovaroff, Mike J.; Soufli, Regina; Alameda, Jennifer; Mirkarimi, Paul; Descalle, Marie-Anne; Baker, Sherry L.; McCarville, Tom; Ziock, Klaus; Hornback, Donald; Romaine, Suzanne; Bruni, Ric; Zhong, Zhong; Honkimäki, Veijo; Ziegler, Eric; Christensen, Finn E.; Jakobsen, Anders C.

2013-01-01

Multilayer coatings enhance x-ray mirror performance at incidence angles steeper than the critical angle, allowing for improved flux, design flexibility and facilitating alignment. In an attempt to extend the use of multilayer coatings to photon energies higher than previously achieved, we have developed multilayers with ultra-short periods between 1 and 2 nm based on the material system WC/SiC. This material system was selected because it possesses very sharp and stable interfaces. In this article, we show highlights from a series of experiments performed in order to characterize the stress, microstructure and morphology of the multilayer films, as well as their reflective performance at photon energies from 8 to 384 keV

THE FREQUENCY OF LOW-MASS EXOPLANETS. III. TOWARD η+ AT SHORT PERIODS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wittenmyer, Robert A.; Tinney, C. G.; Bailey, J.; Horner, J.; Butler, R. P.; O'Toole, Simon J.; Jones, H. R. A.; Carter, B. D.

2011-01-01

Determining the occurrence rate of 'super-Earth' planets (m sin i + ) is a critically important step on the path toward determining the frequency of Earth-like planets (η + ), and hence the uniqueness of our solar system. Current radial-velocity surveys, achieving precisions of 1 m s -1 , are now able to detect super-Earths and provide meaningful estimates of their occurrence rate. We present an analysis of 67 solar-type stars from the Anglo-Australian Planet Search specifically targeted for very high precision observations. When corrected for incompleteness, we find that the planet occurrence rate increases sharply with decreasing planetary mass. Our results are consistent with those from other surveys: in periods shorter than 50 days, we find that 3.0% of stars host a giant (msin i > 100 M + ) planet, and that 17.4% of stars host a planet with msin i + . The preponderance of low-mass planets in short-period orbits is in conflict with formation simulations in which the majority of super-Earths reside at larger orbital distances. This work gives a hint as to the size of η + , but to make meaningful predictions on the frequency of terrestrial planets in longer, potentially habitable orbits, low-mass terrestrial planet searches at periods of 100-200 days must be made an urgent priority for ground-based Doppler planet searches in the years ahead.

Determination of circulation and short period fluctuation in Ilha Grande Bay (RJ, Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yoshimine Ikeda

1980-06-01

Full Text Available A mesosoale study was made of the Ilha Grande area. The local circulation described through -progressive vector diagrams showed a clochwise bottom circulation determined in June 1976, while in the upper 10 m the direction of the flow entering the Ilha Grande Bay was towards the center in the west and towards the Marambaia sandbank in the east side of the Bay. Short periods and amplitude fluctuations were evaluted using power spectral analysis, Fourier and Maximum Entropy Method, which showed that in the upper 10 m predominant periods decrease from 1.1h (A = 6.3cm sec-1 (position = 3C to 1.0h (A = 7.4 cm sec-1 (position = 2D and increase to 5.8h (A = 6.8 cm., sec-1 (position = ID, while at the bottom layer the predominant period increases from 0.4 h (A = 5.0 cm sec-1 (position = 3G to 6.4h (A = 7.0 cm sec-1 (position = 2G and to 4.4h (A = 7.9 cm sec-1 (position = 1G . From the original data it has been possible to determine an "intense pulsation" between 30-70 cm sec-1 in the upper 10 m with about 1.0h period and 10-20 min duration in all the stations.

Theoretical study of nitride short period superlattices

Science.gov (United States)

Gorczyca, I.; Suski, T.; Christensen, N. E.; Svane, A.

2018-02-01

Discussion of band gap behavior based on first principles calculations of electronic band structures for various short period nitride superlattices is presented. Binary superlattices, as InN/GaN and GaN/AlN as well as superlattices containing alloys, as InGaN/GaN, GaN/AlGaN, and GaN/InAlN are considered. Taking into account different crystallographic directions of growth (polar, semipolar and nonpolar) and different strain conditions (free-standing and pseudomorphic) all the factors influencing the band gap engineering are analyzed. Dependence on internal strain and lattice geometry is considered, but the main attention is devoted to the influence of the internal electric field and the hybridization of well and barrier wave functions. The contributions of these two important factors to band gap behavior are illustrated and estimated quantitatively. It appears that there are two interesting ranges of layer thicknesses; in one (few atomic monolayers in barriers and wells) the influence of the wave function hybridization is dominant, whereas in the other (layers thicker than roughly five to six monolayers) dependence of electric field on the band gaps is more important. The band gap behavior in superlattices is compared with the band gap dependence on composition in the corresponding ternary and quaternary alloys. It is shown that for superlattices it is possible to exceed by far the range of band gap values, which can be realized in ternary alloys. The calculated values of the band gaps are compared with the photoluminescence emission energies, when the corresponding data are available. Finally, similarities and differences between nitride and oxide polar superlattices are pointed out by comparison of wurtzite GaN/AlN and ZnO/MgO.

The Conceptual Model of Calculating the Return Period of the Costs for Creation of the Enterprise’s Economic Security Service in the Short-Term Period

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Melikhova Tetiana O.

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Determination of the return period of the costs, advanced for the creation of economic security service of enterprise during a year, involves consideration of interaction of the conditional money flow, accumulated for a certain number of months, and the constant costs. The main component of the constant costs are the annual depreciation deductions. The return period is considered as gross, net, valid, and specified. The gross (net, valid, and specified return period is the time, wherein the gross conditional money flow, equal to the advanced costs, will be accumulated. The gross return period, taking account of the effect of time factor, is proposed to be defined as the ratio of annual depreciation deductions increased by the annual compounding coefficient to the conditional average monthly gross money flow, increased by the average monthly inflation index. As for the short-term period, a relationship between the gross, net, valid, and specified return periods of the costs, advanced to the creation of the economic security service, has been identified. The net (valid, specified return period is equal to the gross period adjusted to the coefficient of excess of the gross conditional money flow, accumulated in the gross period, over the net (valid, specified conditional cash flow.

Kinetic Monte Carlo simulation of phase-precipitation versus instability behavior in short period FeCr superlattices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rodríguez-Martínez, F.J. [UCAM, Universidad Católica de Murcia, Campus de los Jerónimos, 30107 Guadalupe (Murcia) (Spain); Castejón-Mochón, J.F., E-mail: jfcastejon@ucam.edu [UCAM, Universidad Católica de Murcia, Campus de los Jerónimos, 30107 Guadalupe (Murcia) (Spain); Castrillo, P.; Berenguer-Vidal, R. [UCAM, Universidad Católica de Murcia, Campus de los Jerónimos, 30107 Guadalupe (Murcia) (Spain); Dopico, I.; Martin-Bragado, I. [IMDEA Materials Institute, Eric Kandel 2, 28906 Getafe (Madrid) (Spain)

2017-02-15

The structural evolution of FeCr superlattices has been studied using a quasi-atomistic Object Kinetic Monte Carlo model. Superlattices with different spatial periods have been simulated for anneal durations from few hours to several months at 500 °C. Relatively-long period superlattices stabilize into Fe-rich and Cr-rich layers with compositions close to those of bulk α and α′ phases. In contrast, superlattices with very short periods (4, 5, 6 nm) are observed to undergo instability and, for long annealing times, evolve into three-dimensionally decomposed regions, in qualitative agreement to recent experimental observations. The instability onset is delayed as the spatial period increases, and it occurs via interface roughness. This evolution can be explained as a minimization of the free-energy associated to the α/α′ interfaces. A comprehensive description of the evolution dynamics of FeCr-based structures is obtained with our model.

Modeling extreme PM10 concentration in Malaysia using generalized extreme value distribution

Science.gov (United States)

Hasan, Husna; Mansor, Nadiah; Salleh, Nur Hanim Mohd

2015-05-01

Extreme PM10 concentration from the Air Pollutant Index (API) at thirteen monitoring stations in Malaysia is modeled using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The data is blocked into monthly selection period. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test suggests a non-stationary model so two models are considered for the stations with trend. The likelihood ratio test is used to determine the best fitted model and the result shows that only two stations favor the non-stationary model (Model 2) while the other eleven stations favor stationary model (Model 1). The return level of PM10 concentration that is expected to exceed the maximum once within a selected period is obtained.

Combined dendro-documentary evidence of Central European hydroclimatic springtime extremes over the last millennium

Science.gov (United States)

Büntgen, Ulf; Brázdil, Rudolf; Heussner, Karl-Uwe; Hofmann, Jutta; Kontic, Raymond; Kyncl, Tomáš; Pfister, Christian; Chromá, Kateřina; Tegel, Willy

2011-12-01

A predicted rise in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and associated effects on the Earth's climate system likely imply more frequent and severe weather extremes with alternations in hydroclimatic parameters expected to be most critical for ecosystem functioning, agricultural yield, and human health. Evaluating the return period and amplitude of modern climatic extremes in light of pre-industrial natural changes is, however, limited by generally too short instrumental meteorological observations. Here we introduce and analyze 11,873 annually resolved and absolutely dated ring width measurement series from living and historical fir ( Abies alba Mill.) trees sampled across France, Switzerland, Germany, and the Czech Republic, which continuously span the AD 962-2007 period. Even though a dominant climatic driver of European fir growth was not found, ring width extremes were evidently triggered by anomalous variations in Central European April-June precipitation. Wet conditions were associated with dynamic low-pressure cells, whereas continental-scale droughts coincided with persistent high-pressure between 35 and 55°N. Documentary evidence independently confirms many of the dendro signals over the past millennium, and further provides insight on causes and consequences of ambient weather conditions related to the reconstructed extremes. A fairly uniform distribution of hydroclimatic extremes throughout the Medieval Climate Anomaly, Little Ice Age and Recent Global Warming may question the common believe that frequency and severity of such events closely relates to climate mean stages. This joint dendro-documentary approach not only allows extreme climate conditions of the industrial era to be placed against the backdrop of natural variations, but also probably helps to constrain climate model simulations over exceptional long timescales.

Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes over China as Measured by 50-yr Return Values and Periods Based on a CMIP5 Ensemble

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Ying; Gao, Xuejie; Giorgi, Filippo; Zhou, Botao; Shi, Ying; Wu, Jie; Zhang, Yongxiang

2018-04-01

Future changes in the 50-yr return level for temperature and precipitation extremes over mainland China are investigated based on a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The following indices are analyzed: TXx and TNn (the annual maximum and minimum of daily maximum and minimum surface temperature), RX5day (the annual maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation) and CDD (maximum annual number of consecutive dry days). After first validating the model performance, future changes in the 50-yr return values and return periods for these indices are investigated along with the inter-model spread. Multi-model median changes show an increase in the 50-yr return values of TXx and a decrease for TNn, more specifically, by the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5, the present day 50-yr return period of warm events is reduced to 1.2 yr, while extreme cold events over the country are projected to essentially disappear. A general increase in RX5day 50-yr return values is found in the future. By the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5, events of the present RX5day 50-yr return period are projected to reduce to China. Changes in CDD-50 show a dipole pattern over China, with a decrease in the values and longer return periods in the north, and vice versa in the south. Our study also highlights the need for further improvements in the representation of extreme events in climate models to assess the future risks and engineering design related to large-scale infrastructure in China.

Evaluation of empirical relationships between extreme rainfall and daily maximum temperature in Australia

Science.gov (United States)

Herath, Sujeewa Malwila; Sarukkalige, Ranjan; Nguyen, Van Thanh Van

2018-01-01

Understanding the relationships between extreme daily and sub-daily rainfall events and their governing factors is important in order to analyse the properties of extreme rainfall events in a changing climate. Atmospheric temperature is one of the dominant climate variables which has a strong relationship with extreme rainfall events. In this study, a temperature-rainfall binning technique is used to evaluate the dependency of extreme rainfall on daily maximum temperature. The Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relation was found to describe the relationship between daily maximum temperature and a range of rainfall durations from 6 min up to 24 h for seven Australian weather stations, the stations being located in Adelaide, Brisbane, Canberra, Darwin, Melbourne, Perth and Sydney. The analysis shows that the rainfall - temperature scaling varies with location, temperature and rainfall duration. The Darwin Airport station shows a negative scaling relationship, while the other six stations show a positive relationship. To identify the trend in scaling relationship over time the same analysis is conducted using data covering 10 year periods. Results indicate that the dependency of extreme rainfall on temperature also varies with the analysis period. Further, this dependency shows an increasing trend for more extreme short duration rainfall and a decreasing trend for average long duration rainfall events at most stations. Seasonal variations of the scale changing trends were analysed by categorizing the summer and autumn seasons in one group and the winter and spring seasons in another group. Most of 99th percentile of 6 min, 1 h and 24 h rain durations at Perth, Melbourne and Sydney stations show increasing trend for both groups while Adelaide and Darwin show decreasing trend. Furthermore, majority of scaling trend of 50th percentile are decreasing for both groups.

Injuries in an Extreme Conditioning Program

OpenAIRE

Aune, Kyle T.; Powers, Joseph M.

2016-01-01

Background: Extreme conditioning programs (ECPs) are fitness training regimens relying on aerobic, plyometric, and resistance training exercises, often with high levels of intensity for a short duration of time. These programs have grown rapidly in popularity in recent years, but science describing the safety profile of these programs is lacking. Hypothesis: The rate of injury in the extreme conditioning program is greater than the injury rate of weightlifting and the majority of injuries occ...

Short-Term Electricity-Load Forecasting Using a TSK-Based Extreme Learning Machine with Knowledge Representation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chan-Uk Yeom

2017-10-01

Full Text Available This paper discusses short-term electricity-load forecasting using an extreme learning machine (ELM with automatic knowledge representation from a given input-output data set. For this purpose, we use a Takagi-Sugeno-Kang (TSK-based ELM to develop a systematic approach to generating if-then rules, while the conventional ELM operates without knowledge information. The TSK-ELM design includes a two-phase development. First, we generate an initial random-partition matrix and estimate cluster centers for random clustering. The obtained cluster centers are used to determine the premise parameters of fuzzy if-then rules. Next, the linear weights of the TSK fuzzy type are estimated using the least squares estimate (LSE method. These linear weights are used as the consequent parameters in the TSK-ELM design. The experiments were performed on short-term electricity-load data for forecasting. The electricity-load data were used to forecast hourly day-ahead loads given temperature forecasts; holiday information; and historical loads from the New England ISO. In order to quantify the performance of the forecaster, we use metrics and statistical characteristics such as root mean squared error (RMSE as well as mean absolute error (MAE, mean absolute percent error (MAPE, and R-squared, respectively. The experimental results revealed that the proposed method showed good performance when compared with a conventional ELM with four activation functions such sigmoid, sine, radial basis function, and rectified linear unit (ReLU. It possessed superior prediction performance and knowledge information and a small number of rules.

Multifractal Conceptualisation of Hydro-Meteorological Extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Tchiguirinskaia, I.; Schertzer, D.; Lovejoy, S.

2009-04-01

Hydrology and more generally sciences involved in water resources management, technological or operational developments face a fundamental difficulty: the extreme variability of hydro-meteorological fields. It clearly appears today that this variability is a function of the observation scale and yield hydro-meteorological hazards. Throughout the world, the development of multifractal theory offers new techniques for handling such non-classical variability over wide ranges of time and space scales. The resulting stochastic simulations with a very limited number of parameters well reproduce the long range dependencies and the clustering of rainfall extremes often yielding fat tailed (i.e., an algebraic type) probability distributions. The goal of this work was to investigate the ability of using very short or incomplete data records for reliable statistical predictions of the extremes. In particular we discuss how to evaluate the uncertainty in the empirical or semi-analytical multifractal outcomes. We consider three main aspects of the evaluation, such as the scaling adequacy, the multifractal parameter estimation error and the quantile estimation error. We first use the multiplicative cascade model to generate long series of multifractal data. The simulated samples had to cover the range of the universal multifractal parameters widely available in the scientific literature for the rainfall and river discharges. Using these long multifractal series and their sub-samples, we defined a metric for parameter estimation error. Then using the sets of estimated parameters, we obtained the quantile values for a range of excedance probabilities from 5% to 0.01%. Plotting the error bars on a quantile plot enable an approximation of confidence intervals that would be particularly important for the predictions of multifractal extremes. We finally illustrate the efficiency of such concept on its application to a large database (more than 16000 selected stations over USA and

ON THE POSSIBLE EXISTENCE OF SHORT-PERIOD g-MODE INSTABILITIES POWERED BY NUCLEAR-BURNING SHELLS IN POST-ASYMPTOTIC GIANT BRANCH H-DEFICIENT (PG1159-TYPE) STARS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Corsico, A. H.; Althaus, L. G.; Miller Bertolami, M. M.; Gonzalez Perez, J. M.; Kepler, S. O.

2009-01-01

We present a pulsational stability analysis of hot post-asymptotic giant branch (AGB) H-deficient pre-white dwarf stars with active He-burning shells. The stellar models employed are state-of-the-art equilibrium structures representative of PG1159 stars derived from the complete evolution of the progenitor stars, through the thermally pulsing AGB phase and born-again episode. On the basis of fully nonadiabatic pulsation computations, we confirmed theoretical evidence for the existence of a separate PG1159 instability strip in the log T eff -log g diagram characterized by short-period g-modes excited by the ε-mechanism. This instability strip partially overlaps the already known GW Vir instability strip of intermediate/long-period g-modes destabilized by the classical κ-mechanism acting on the partial ionization of C and/or O in the envelope of PG1159 stars. We found that PG1159 stars characterized by thick He-rich envelopes and located inside this overlapping region could exhibit both short and intermediate/long periods simultaneously. As a natural application of our results, we study the particular case of VV 47, a pulsating planetary nebula nucleus (PG1159 type) that is particularly interesting because it has been reported to exhibit a rich and complex pulsation spectrum including a series of unusually short pulsation periods. We found that the long periods exhibited by VV 47 can be readily explained by the classical κ-mechanism, while the observed short-period branch below ∼300 s could correspond to modes triggered by the He-burning shell through the ε-mechanism, although more observational work is needed to confirm the reality of these short-period modes. Were the existence of short-period g-modes in this star convincingly confirmed by future observations, VV 47 could be the first known pulsating star in which both the κ-mechanism and the ε-mechanism of mode driving are simultaneously operating.

Layering of Structure in the North American Upper Mantle: Combining Short Period Constraints and Full Waveform Tomography

Science.gov (United States)

Roy, C.; Calo, M.; Bodin, T.; Romanowicz, B. A.

2016-12-01

Recent receiver function (RF) studies of the north American craton suggest the presence of layering within the cratonic lithosphere with significant lateral variations in the depth. However, the location and character of these discontinuities depends on assumptions made on a background 3D velocity model. On the other hand, the implementation of the Spectral Element Method (SEM) for the computation of the seismic wavefield in 3D structures is allowing improved resolution of volumetric structure in full waveform tomography. The corresponding computations are however very heavy and limit our ability to attain short enough periods to resolve short scale features such as the existence and lateral variations of discontinuities. In order to overcome these limitations, we have developed a methodology that combines full waveform inversion tomography and information provided by short period seismic observables. In a first step we constructed a 3D discontinuous radially anisotropic starting model combining 1D models calculated using RF and L and R wave dispersion data in a Bayesian framework using trans-dimensional MCMC inversion at a collection of 30 stations across the north American continent (Calò et al., 2016). This model was then interpolated and smoothed using a procedure based on residual homogenization (Capdeville et al. 2013) and serves as input model for full waveform tomography using a three-component waveform dataset previously collected (Yuan et al., 2014). The homogenization is necessary to avoid meshing problems and heavy SEM computations. In a second step, several iterations of the full waveform inversion are performed until convergence, using a regional SEM code for forward computations (RegSEM, Cupillard et al., 2012). Results of the inversion are volumetric velocity perturbations around the homogenized starting model, which are then added to the discontinuous 3D starting model. The final result is a multiscale discontinuous model containing both short and

Ocular discomfort responses after short periods of contact lens wear.

Science.gov (United States)

Papas, Eric; Tilia, Daniel; McNally, John; de la Jara, Percy Lazon

2015-06-01

To investigate if contact lens-related discomfort is a function of the time of day at which lenses are worn. This was a randomized, crossover, open-label clinical trial where subjective responses, with and without contact lenses, were assessed every 2 hours during five stages (A to E). Each stage began at the time when subjects would normally have inserted their contact lenses (T0). During stage A, no lenses were worn, whereas in stage B, lenses were worn continuously for 12 hours. In stages C to E, lenses were worn for only 4 hours. Contact lenses were inserted at T0 for stage C, but for stages D and E, lenses were not inserted until T0 + 4 and T0 + 8 hours, respectively. Mixed linear models were used for statistical analysis. In the absence of contact lenses, ocular comfort and dryness remained reasonably constant throughout the observation period. Ocular comfort and dryness decreased during 12 hours of continuous lens wear and became significantly worse from the 8-hour time onward compared with insertion (p 0.05) to the first 4 hours of continuous contact lens wear. Comparing the scores of each of these stages with the no-lens response at the corresponding time showed no significant differences for comfort (p > 0.23) or dryness (p > 0.37). Short periods of wear can be experienced at any time of day without significant change in ocular discomfort and dryness. This suggests that subjective responses at the end of the day are determined by the length of time lenses are in contact with the eye, rather than the time of day at which lenses are worn.

Cooperative learning combined with short periods of lecturing: A good alternative in teaching biochemistry.

Science.gov (United States)

Fernández-Santander, Ana

2008-01-01

The informal activities of cooperative learning and short periods of lecturing has been combined and used in the university teaching of biochemistry as part of the first year course of Optics and Optometry in the academic years 2004-2005 and 2005-2006. The lessons were previously elaborated by the teacher and included all that is necessary to understand the topic (text, figures, graphics, diagrams, pictures, etc.). Additionally, a questionnaire was prepared for every chapter. All lessons contained three parts: objectives, approach and development, and the assessment of the topic. Team work, responsibility, and communication skills were some of the abilities developed with this new methodology. Students worked collaboratively in small groups of two or three following the teacher's instructions with short periods of lecturing that clarified misunderstood concepts. Homework was minimized. On comparing this combined methodology with the traditional one (only lecture), students were found to exhibit a higher satisfaction with the new method. They were more involved in the learning process and had a better attitude toward the subject. The use of this new methodology showed a significant increase in the mean score of the students' academic results. The rate of students who failed the subject was significantly inferior in comparison with those who failed in the previous years when only lecturing was applied. This combined methodology helped the teacher to observe the apprenticeship process of students better and to act as a facilitator in the process of building students' knowledge. Copyright © 2008 International Union of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Inc.

Entropy method combined with extreme learning machine method for the short-term photovoltaic power generation forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tang, Pingzhou; Chen, Di; Hou, Yushuo

2016-01-01

As the world’s energy problem becomes more severe day by day, photovoltaic power generation has opened a new door for us with no doubt. It will provide an effective solution for this severe energy problem and meet human’s needs for energy if we can apply photovoltaic power generation in real life, Similar to wind power generation, photovoltaic power generation is uncertain. Therefore, the forecast of photovoltaic power generation is very crucial. In this paper, entropy method and extreme learning machine (ELM) method were combined to forecast a short-term photovoltaic power generation. First, entropy method is used to process initial data, train the network through the data after unification, and then forecast electricity generation. Finally, the data results obtained through the entropy method with ELM were compared with that generated through generalized regression neural network (GRNN) and radial basis function neural network (RBF) method. We found that entropy method combining with ELM method possesses higher accuracy and the calculation is faster.

A short period of high-intensity interval training improves skeletal muscle mitochondrial function and pulmonary oxygen uptake kinetics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Peter Møller; Jacobs, Robert A; Bonne, Thomas Christian

2016-01-01

The aim of the present study was to examine whether improvements in pulmonary V̇O2 kinetics following a short period of high-intensity training (HIT) would be associated with improved skeletal muscle mitochondrial function. Ten untrained male volunteers (age: 26 ± 2; mean ± SD) performed six HIT...

Short-term effects of upper extremity circuit resistance training on muscle strength and functional independence in patients with paraplegia.

Science.gov (United States)

Yildirim, Adem; Sürücü, Gülseren Dost; Karamercan, Ayşe; Gedik, Dilay Eken; Atci, Nermin; Dülgeroǧlu, Deniz; Özgirgin, Neşe

2016-11-21

A number of exercises to strengthen the upper extremities are recommended to increase functional independence and quality of life (QoL) in patients with paraplegia. Circuit resistance training (CRT) is a type of progressive resistive exercise performed repeatedly at fixed mechanical exercise stations. The aim of this study was to investigate the potential benefits of CRT for upper extremity muscle strength, functional independence, and QoL in patients with paraplegia. Twenty-six patients with paraplegia who were participating in a conventional rehabilitation program at a tertiary education and research hospital were enrolled in this study. The participants were randomly assigned to two groups. The exercise group participated in the CRT program, which consisted of repetitive exercises for the upper extremities performed at fixed mechanical stations 5 sessions per week for 6 weeks, in addition to conventional rehabilitation. Participants in the control group received only conventional rehabilitation over the same period. We compared the groups with respect to QoL, as well as isokinetic muscle test outcomes in the upper extremities, using the Functional Independence Measure (FIM) and Borg's scale. We observed significant increases in scores on the physical component of the FIM, Borg's scale, and QoL in both the exercise and control groups. Furthermore, the large majority of isokinetic values were significantly more improved in the exercise group compared to the control group. When post-treatment outcomes were compared between the groups, improvements in scores on the physical component of the FIM and in most isokinetic values were significantly greater in the exercise group. This study showed that CRT has positive effects on muscle strength in the upper extremities and the physical disability components of the FIM when added to conventional rehabilitation programs for paraplegic patients. However, we observed no significant improvement in QoL scores after adding CRT

A Novel Hybrid Model Based on Extreme Learning Machine, k-Nearest Neighbor Regression and Wavelet Denoising Applied to Short-Term Electric Load Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Weide Li

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Electric load forecasting plays an important role in electricity markets and power systems. Because electric load time series are complicated and nonlinear, it is very difficult to achieve a satisfactory forecasting accuracy. In this paper, a hybrid model, Wavelet Denoising-Extreme Learning Machine optimized by k-Nearest Neighbor Regression (EWKM, which combines k-Nearest Neighbor (KNN and Extreme Learning Machine (ELM based on a wavelet denoising technique is proposed for short-term load forecasting. The proposed hybrid model decomposes the time series into a low frequency-associated main signal and some detailed signals associated with high frequencies at first, then uses KNN to determine the independent and dependent variables from the low-frequency signal. Finally, the ELM is used to get the non-linear relationship between these variables to get the final prediction result for the electric load. Compared with three other models, Extreme Learning Machine optimized by k-Nearest Neighbor Regression (EKM, Wavelet Denoising-Extreme Learning Machine (WKM and Wavelet Denoising-Back Propagation Neural Network optimized by k-Nearest Neighbor Regression (WNNM, the model proposed in this paper can improve the accuracy efficiently. New South Wales is the economic powerhouse of Australia, so we use the proposed model to predict electric demand for that region. The accurate prediction has a significant meaning.

Weather extremes and the Romans - A marine palynological perspective on Italian temperature and precipitation between 200 BC and 500 AD

Science.gov (United States)

Zonneveld, Karin; Clotten, Caroline; Chen, Liang

2015-04-01

Sediments of a tephra-dated marine sediment core located at the distal part of the Po-river discharge plume (southern Italy) have been studied with a three annual resolution. Based on the variability in the dinoflagellate cyst content detailed reconstructions have been established of variability in precipitation related river discharge rates and local air temperature. Furthermore about the variability in distort water quality has been reconstructed. We show that both precipitation and temperature signals vary in tune with cyclic changes in solar insolation. On top of these cyclic changes, short term extremes in temperature and precipitation can be observed that can be interpreted to reflect periods of local weather extremes. Comparison of our reconstructions with historical information suggest that times of high temperatures and maximal precipitation corresponds to the period of maximal expansion of the Roman Empire. We have strong indications that at this time discharge waters might have contained higher nutrient concentrations compared to previous and later time intervals suggesting anthropogenic influence of the water quality. First pilot-results suggest that the decrease in temperature reconstructed just after the "Roman Optimum" corresponds to an increase in numbers of armored conflicts between the Roman and German cultures. Furthermore we observe a resemblance in timing of short-term intervals with cold weather spells during the early so called "Dark-Age-Period" to correspond to epidemic/pandemic events in Europe.

Simulation of channeling and radiation of 855 MeV electrons and positrons in a small-amplitude short-period bent crystal

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Korol, Andrei V., E-mail: korol@mbnexplorer.com [MBN Research Center, Altenhöferallee 3, 60438 Frankfurt am Main (Germany); Bezchastnov, Victor G. [A.F. Ioffe Physical-Technical Institute, Politechnicheskaya Str. 26, 194021 St. Petersburg (Russian Federation); Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, Politechnicheskaya 29, 195251 St. Petersburg (Russian Federation); Sushko, Gennady B.; Solov’yov, Andrey V. [MBN Research Center, Altenhöferallee 3, 60438 Frankfurt am Main (Germany)

2016-11-15

Channeling and radiation are studied for the relativistic electrons and positrons passing through a Si crystal periodically bent with a small amplitude and a short period. Comprehensive analysis of the channeling process for various bending amplitudes is presented on the grounds of numerical simulations. The features of the channeling are highlighted and elucidated within an analytically developed continuous potential approximation. The radiation spectra are computed and discussed.

Erosion during extreme flood events dominates Holocene canyon evolution in northeast Iceland.

Science.gov (United States)

Baynes, Edwin R C; Attal, Mikaël; Niedermann, Samuel; Kirstein, Linda A; Dugmore, Andrew J; Naylor, Mark

2015-02-24

Extreme flood events have the potential to cause catastrophic landscape change in short periods of time (10(0) to 10(3) h). However, their impacts are rarely considered in studies of long-term landscape evolution (>10(3) y), because the mechanisms of erosion during such floods are poorly constrained. Here we use topographic analysis and cosmogenic (3)He surface exposure dating of fluvially sculpted surfaces to determine the impact of extreme flood events within the Jökulsárgljúfur canyon (northeast Iceland) and to constrain the mechanisms of bedrock erosion during these events. Surface exposure ages allow identification of three periods of intense canyon cutting about 9 ka ago, 5 ka ago, and 2 ka ago during which multiple large knickpoints retreated large distances (>2 km). During these events, a threshold flow depth was exceeded, leading to the toppling and transportation of basalt lava columns. Despite continuing and comparatively large-scale (500 m(3)/s) discharge of sediment-rich glacial meltwater, there is no evidence for a transition to an abrasion-dominated erosion regime since the last erosive event because the vertical knickpoints have not diffused over time. We provide a model for the evolution of the Jökulsárgljúfur canyon through the reconstruction of the river profile and canyon morphology at different stages over the last 9 ka and highlight the dominant role played by extreme flood events in the shaping of this landscape during the Holocene.

A Bright Short Period M-M Eclipsing Binary from the KELT Survey: Magnetic Activity and the Mass-Radius Relationship for M Dwarfs

Science.gov (United States)

Lubin, Jack B.; Rodriguez, Joseph E.; Zhou, George; Conroy, Kyle E.; Stassun, Keivan G.; Collins, Karen; Stevens, Daniel J.; Labadie-Bartz, Jonathan; Stockdale, Christopher; Myers, Gordon; Colón, Knicole D.; Bento, Joao; Kehusmaa, Petri; Petrucci, Romina; Jofré, Emiliano; Quinn, Samuel N.; Lund, Michael B.; Kuhn, Rudolf B.; Siverd, Robert J.; Beatty, Thomas G.; Harlingten, Caisey; Pepper, Joshua; Gaudi, B. Scott; James, David; Jensen, Eric L. N.; Reichart, Daniel; Kedziora-Chudczer, Lucyna; Bailey, Jeremy; Melville, Graeme

2017-08-01

We report the discovery of KELT J041621-620046, a moderately bright (J ˜ 10.2) M-dwarf eclipsing binary system at a distance of 39 ± 3 pc. KELT J041621-620046 was first identified as an eclipsing binary using observations from the Kilodegree Extremely Little Telescope (KELT) survey. The system has a short orbital period of ˜1.11 days and consists of components with {M}1={0.447}+0.052-0.047 {M}⊙ and {M}2={0.399}+0.046-0.042 {M}⊙ in nearly circular orbits. The radii of the two stars are {R}1={0.540}+0.034-0.032 {R}⊙ and {\\text{}}{R}2=0.453+/- 0.017 {R}⊙ . Full system and orbital properties were determined (to ˜10% error) by conducting an EBOP (Eclipsing Binary Orbit Program) global modeling of the high precision photometric and spectroscopic observations obtained by the KELT Follow-up Network. Each star is larger by 17%-28% and cooler by 4%-10% than predicted by standard (non-magnetic) stellar models. Strong Hα emission indicates chromospheric activity in both stars. The observed radii and temperature discrepancies for both components are more consistent with those predicted by empirical relations that account for convective suppression due to magnetic activity.

Short wavelength FELS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sheffield, R.L.

1991-01-01

The generation of coherent ultraviolet and shorter wavelength light is presently limited to synchrotron sources. The recent progress in the development of brighter electron beams enables the use of much lower energy electron rf linacs to reach short-wavelengths than previously considered possible. This paper will summarize the present results obtained with synchrotron sources, review proposed short- wavelength FEL designs and then present a new design which is capable of over an order of magnitude higher power to the extreme ultraviolet. 17 refs., 10 figs

Short wavelength FELS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sheffield, R.L.

1991-01-01

The generation of coherent ultraviolet and shorter wavelength light is presently limited to synchrotron sources. The recent progress in the development of brighter electron beams enables the use of much lower energy electron rf linacs to reach short-wavelengths than previously considered possible. This paper will summarize the present results obtained with synchrotron sources, review proposed short- wavelength FEL designs and then present a new design which is capable of over an order of magnitude higher power to the extreme ultraviolet. 17 refs., 10 figs.

Short-term cropland responses to temperature extreme events during late winter

Science.gov (United States)

De Simon, G.; Alberti, G.; Delle Vedove, G.; Peressotti, A.; Zaldei, A.; Miglietta, F.

2013-08-01

In recent years, several studies have focused on terrestrial ecosystem response to extreme events. Most of this research has been conducted in natural ecosystems, but few have considered agroecosystems. In this study, we investigated the impact of a manipulated warmer or cooler late winter/early spring on the carbon budget and final harvest of a soybean crop (Glycine max (L.) Merr.). Soil temperature was altered by manipulating soil albedo by covering the soil surface with a layer of inert silica gravel. We tested three treatments - cooling (Co), warming (W), mix (M) - and control (C). An automated system continuously measured soil heterotrophic respiration (Rh), soil temperature profiles, and soil water content across the entire year in each plot. Phenological phases were periodically assessed and final harvest was measured in each plot. Results showed that treatments had only a transient effect on daily Rh rates, which did not result in a total annual carbon budget significantly different from control, even though cooling showed a significant reduction in final harvest. We also observed anticipation in emergence in both W and M treatments and a delay in emergence for Co. Moreover, plant density and growth increased in W and M and decreased in Co. In conclusion, from the results of our experiment we can assert that an increase in the frequency of both heat and cold waves is unlikely to have large effects on the overall annual carbon balance of irrigated croplands.

First Kepler results on compact pulsators - V. Slowly pulsating subdwarf B stars in short-period binaries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kawaler, Stephen D.; Reed, Michael D.; Østensen, Roy H.

2010-01-01

of sdB stars with a close M-dwarf companion with orbital periods of less than half a day. Because the orbital period is so short, the stars should be in synchronous rotation, and if so, the rotation period should imprint itself on the multiplet structure of the pulsations. However, we do not find clear......The survey phase of the Kepler Mission includes a number of hot subdwarf B (sdB) stars to search for non-radial pulsations. We present our analysis of two sdB stars that are found to be g-mode pulsators of the V1093 Her class. These two stars also display the distinct irradiation effect typical...... evidence for such rotational splitting. Though the stars do show some frequency spacings that are consistent with synchronous rotation, they also display multiplets with splittings that are much smaller. Longer-duration time series photometry will be needed to determine if those small splittings...

Exercise during Short-Term and Long-Term Continuous Exposure to Hypoxia Exacerbates Sleep-Related Periodic Breathing

Science.gov (United States)

Tellez, Helio Fernandez; Morrison, Shawnda A.; Neyt, Xavier; Mairesse, Olivier; Piacentini, Maria Francesca; Macdonald-Nethercott, Eoin; Pangerc, Andrej; Dolenc-Groselj, Leja; Eiken, Ola; Pattyn, Nathalie; Mekjavic, Igor B.; Meeusen, Romain

2016-01-01

Study Objectives: Exposure to hypoxia elevates chemosensitivity, which can lead to periodic breathing. Exercise impacts gas exchange, altering chemosensitivity; however, interactions between sleep, exercise and chronic hypoxic exposure have not been examined. This study investigated whether exercise exacerbates sleep-related periodic breathing in hypoxia. Methods: Two experimental phases. Short-Term Phase: a laboratory controlled, group-design study in which 16 active, healthy men (age: 25 ± 3 y, height: 1.79 ± 0.06 m, mass: 74 ± 8 kg) were confined to a normobaric hypoxic environment (FIO2 = 0.139 ± 0.003, 4,000 m) for 10 days, after random assignment to a sedentary (control, CON) or cycle-exercise group (EX). Long-Term Phase: conducted at the Concordia Antarctic Research Station (3,800 m equivalent at the Equator) where 14 men (age: 36 ± 9 y, height: 1.77 ± 0.09 m, mass: 75 ± 10 kg) lived for 12–14 months, continuously confined. Participants were stratified post hoc based on self-reported physical activity levels. We quantified apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) and physical activity variables. Results: Short-Term Phase: mean AHI scores were significantly elevated in the EX group compared to CON (Night1 = CON: 39 ± 51, EX: 91 ± 59; Night10 = CON: 32 ± 32, EX: 92 ± 48; P = 0.046). Long-Term Phase: AHI was correlated to mean exercise time (R2 = 0.4857; P = 0.008) and the coefficient of variation in night oxyhemoglobin saturation (SpO2; R2 = 0.3062; P = 0.049). Conclusions: Data indicate that exercise (physical activity) per se affects night SpO2 concentrations and AHI after a minimum of two bouts of moderate-intensity hypoxic exercise, while habitual physical activity in hypobaric hypoxic confinement affects breathing during sleep, up to 13+ months' duration Citation: Tellez HF, Morrison SA, Neyt X, Mairesse O, Piacentini MF, Macdonald-Nethercott E, Pangerc A, Dolenc-Groselj L, Eiken O, Pattyn N, Mekjavic IB, Meeusen R. Exercise during short-term and long

Short-period volcanic gas precursors to phreatic eruptions: Insights from Poás Volcano, Costa Rica

Science.gov (United States)

de Moor, Maarten; Aiuppa, Alessandro; Pacheco, Javier; Avard, Geoffroy; Kern, Christoph; Liuzzo, Marco; Martinez, Maria; Giudice, Gaetano; Fischer, Tobias P.

2016-01-01

Volcanic eruptions involving interaction with water are amongst the most violent and unpredictable geologic phenomena on Earth. Phreatic eruptions are exceptionally difficult to forecast by traditional geophysical techniques. Here we report on short-term precursory variations in gas emissions related to phreatic blasts at Poás volcano, Costa Rica, as measured with an in situ multiple gas analyzer that was deployed at the edge of the erupting lake. Gas emitted from this hyper-acid crater lake approaches magmatic values of SO2/CO2 1–6 days prior to eruption. The SO2 flux derived from magmatic degassing through the lake is measureable by differential optical absorption spectrometry (sporadic campaign measurements), which allows us to constrain lake gas output and input for the major gas species during eruptive and non-eruptive periods. We can further calculate power supply to the hydrothermal system using volatile mass balance and thermodynamics, which indicates that the magmatic heat flux into the shallow hydrothermal system increases from ∼27 MW during quiescence to ∼59 MW during periods of phreatic events. These transient pulses of gas and heat from the deeper magmatic system generate both phreatic eruptions and the observed short-term changes in gas composition, because at high gas flux scrubbing of sulfur by the hydrothermal system is both kinetically and thermodynamically inhibited whereas CO2gas is always essentially inert in hyperacid conditions. Thus, the SO2/CO2 of lake emissions approaches magmatic values as gas and power supply to the sub-limnic hydrothermal system increase, vaporizing fluids and priming the hydrothermal system for eruption. Our results suggest that high-frequency real-time gas monitoring could provide useful short-term eruptive precursors at volcanoes prone to phreatic explosions.

Extremely short relativistic-electron-bunch generation in the laser wakefield via novel bunch injection scheme

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. G. Khachatryan

2004-12-01

Full Text Available Recently a new electron-bunch injection scheme for the laser wakefield accelerator has been proposed [JETP Lett. 74, 371 (2001JTPLA20021-364010.1134/1.1427124; Phys. Rev. E 65, 046504 (2002PLEEE81063-651X10.1103/PhysRevE.65.046504]. In this scheme, a low energy electron bunch, sent in a plasma channel just before a high-intensity laser pulse, is trapped in the laser wakefield, considerably compressed and accelerated to an ultrarelativistic energy. In this paper we show the possibility of the generation of an extremely short (on the order of 1   μm long or a few femtoseconds in duration relativistic-electron-bunch by this mechanism. The initial electron bunch, which can be generated, for example, by a laser-driven photocathode rf gun, should have an energy of a few hundred keVs to a few MeVs, a duration in the picosecond range or less and a relatively low concentration. The trapping conditions and parameters of an accelerated bunch are investigated. The laser pulse dynamics as well as a possible experimental setup for the demonstration of the injection scheme are also considered.

Short-Selling, Leverage and Systemic Risk

OpenAIRE

Pais, Amelia; Stork, Philip A.

2013-01-01

During the Global Financial Crisis, regulators imposed short-selling bans to protect financial institutions. The rationale behind the bans was that “bear raids”, driven by short-sellers, would increase the individual and systemic risk of financial institutions, especially for institutions with high leverage. This study uses Extreme Value Theory to estimate the effect of short-selling on financial institutions’ individual and systemic risks in France, Italy and Spain; it also analyses the rela...

Extreme meteorological conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Altinger de Schwarzkopf, M.L.

1983-01-01

Different meteorological variables which may reach significant extreme values, such as the windspeed and, in particular, its occurrence through tornadoes and hurricanes that necesarily incide and wich must be taken into account at the time of nuclear power plants' installation, are analyzed. For this kind of study, it is necessary to determine the basic phenomenum of design. Two criteria are applied to define the basic values of design for extreme meteorological variables. The first one determines the expected extreme value: it is obtained from analyzing the recurence of the phenomenum in a convened period of time, wich may be generally of 50 years. The second one determines the extreme value of low probability, taking into account the nuclear power plant's operating life -f.ex. 25 years- and considering, during said lapse, the occurrence probabilities of extreme meteorological phenomena. The values may be determined either by the deterministic method, which is based on the acknowledgement of the fundamental physical characteristics of the phenomena or by the probabilistic method, that aims to the analysis of historical statistical data. Brief comments are made on the subject in relation to the Argentine Republic area. (R.J.S.) [es

POSITION AND CHARACTER (Ɖ OR X) OF ENERGY STATES IN SHORT-PERIOD (GaAs)m(AlAs)n SUPERLATTICES

OpenAIRE

Nagle , J.; Garriga , M.; Stolz , W.; Isu , T.; Ploog , K.

1987-01-01

We have grown a series of (GaAs)m(AlAs)n short period superlattices by molecular beam epitaxy including samples with m=n and m≠n. Low temperature photoluminescence, excitation spectroscopy and ellipsometry measurements have been performed to determine the positions and origins of the different electronic states.

Extreme conditions over Europe and North America: role of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability

Science.gov (United States)

Ruprich-Robert, Yohan; Msadek, Rym; Delworth, Tom

2016-04-01

The Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) is the result and possibly the source of marked modulations of the climate over many areas of the globe. For instance, the relatively warm and dry climate of North America throughout the 30-yr interval of 1931-60, during which the Dust Bowl and the 1950's drought occurred, has been linked to the concomitant warm phase of the AMV. During this period relative warm and wet conditions prevailed over Europe. After 1960, the Atlantic began to cool, and for almost three decades the North American climate turned wetter and cooler whereas Europe experienced cooler and dryer conditions. However, the shortness of the historical observations compared to the AMV period suggested by longer proxy (~60-80yr) does not allow to firmly conclude on the causal effect of the AMV. We use a model approach to isolate the causal role of the AMV on the occurrence of extreme events over Europe and North America. We present experiments based on two GFDL global climate models, a low resolution version, CM2.1 and a higher resolution model for the atmospheric component, FLOR. In both model experiments sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic sector are restored to the observed AMV pattern, while the other basins are left fully coupled. In order to explore and robustly isolate the AMV impacts on extreme events, we use large ensemble simulations (100 members for CM2.1 and 50 for FLOR) that we run for 20 years. We find that a positive phase of the AMV increases the frequency of occurrence of drought over North America and of extremely cold/warm conditions over Northern/Central Europe during winter/summer. Interestingly, we find that the AMV impacts on these extreme conditions are modulated by the Pacific response to the AMV itself. Members that develop a weak Pacific response show more extreme events over Europe whereas those that develop a strong Pacific response show more extreme events over North America.

Measuring, Predicting and Visualizing Short-Term Change in Word Representation and Usage in VKontakte Social Network

OpenAIRE

Stewart, Ian; Arendt, Dustin; Bell, Eric; Volkova, Svitlana

2017-01-01

Language in social media is extremely dynamic: new words emerge, trend and disappear, while the meaning of existing words can fluctuate over time. Such dynamics are especially notable during a period of crisis. This work addresses several important tasks of measuring, visualizing and predicting short term text representation shift, i.e. the change in a word's contextual semantics, and contrasting such shift with surface level word dynamics, or concept drift, observed in social media streams. ...

Using GRACE Satellite Gravimetry for Assessing Large-Scale Hydrologic Extremes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexander Y. Sun

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Global assessment of the spatiotemporal variability in terrestrial total water storage anomalies (TWSA in response to hydrologic extremes is critical for water resources management. Using TWSA derived from the gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE satellites, this study systematically assessed the skill of the TWSA-climatology (TC approach and breakpoint (BP detection method for identifying large-scale hydrologic extremes. The TC approach calculates standardized anomalies by using the mean and standard deviation of the GRACE TWSA corresponding to each month. In the BP detection method, the empirical mode decomposition (EMD is first applied to identify the mean return period of TWSA extremes, and then a statistical procedure is used to identify the actual occurrence times of abrupt changes (i.e., BPs in TWSA. Both detection methods were demonstrated on basin-averaged TWSA time series for the world’s 35 largest river basins. A nonlinear event coincidence analysis measure was applied to cross-examine abrupt changes detected by these methods with those detected by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI. Results show that our EMD-assisted BP procedure is a promising tool for identifying hydrologic extremes using GRACE TWSA data. Abrupt changes detected by the BP method coincide well with those of the SPI anomalies and with documented hydrologic extreme events. Event timings obtained by the TC method were ambiguous for a number of river basins studied, probably because the GRACE data length is too short to derive long-term climatology at this time. The BP approach demonstrates a robust wet-dry anomaly detection capability, which will be important for applications with the upcoming GRACE Follow-On mission.

The Very Short Period M Dwarf Binary SDSS J001641-000925

Science.gov (United States)

Davenport, James R. A.; Becker, Andrew C.; West, Andrew A.; Bochanski, John J.; Hawley, Suzanne L.; Holtzman, Jon; Gunning, Heather C.; Hilton, Eric J.; Munshi, Ferah A.; Albright, Meagan

2013-02-01

We present follow-up observations and analysis of the recently discovered short period low-mass eclipsing binary, SDSS J001641-000925. With an orbital period of 0.19856 days, this system has one of the shortest known periods for an M dwarf binary system. Medium-resolution spectroscopy and multi-band photometry for the system are presented. Markov Chain Monte Carlo modeling of the light curves and radial velocities yields estimated masses for the stars of M 1 = 0.54 ± 0.07 M ⊙ and M 2 = 0.34 ± 0.04 M ⊙, and radii of R 1 = 0.68 ± 0.03 R ⊙ and R 2 = 0.58 ± 0.03 R ⊙, respectively. This solution places both components above the critical Roche overfill limit, providing strong evidence that SDSS J001641-000925 is the first verified M-dwarf contact binary system. Within the follow-up spectroscopy we find signatures of non-solid body rotation velocities, which we interpret as evidence for mass transfer or loss within the system. In addition, our photometry samples the system over nine years, and we find strong evidence for period decay at the rate of \\dot{P}\\sim 8 s yr-1. Both of these signatures raise the intriguing possibility that the system is in over-contact, and actively losing angular momentum, likely through mass loss. This places SDSS J001641-000925 as not just the first M-dwarf over-contact binary, but one of the few systems of any spectral type known to be actively undergoing coalescence. Further study of SDSS J001641-000925 is ongoing to verify the nature of the system, which may prove to be a unique astrophysical laboratory. Based on observations obtained with the Apache Point Observatory 3.5 m telescope, which is owned and operated by the Astrophysical Research Consortium. This paper includes data gathered with the 6.5 m Magellan Telescopes located at Las Campanas Observatory, Chile. Support for the design and construction of the Magellan Echellette Spectrograph was received from the Observatories of the Carnegie Institution of Washington, the

Corresponding Relation between Warm Season Precipitation Extremes and Surface Air Temperature in South China

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

SUN; Wei; LI; Jian; YU; Ru-Cong

2013-01-01

Hourly data of 42 rain gauges over South China during 1966–2005 were used to analyze the corresponding relation between precipitation extremes and surface air temperature in the warm season(May to October).The results show that below 25℃,both daily and hourly precipitation extremes in South China increase with rising temperature.More extreme events transit to the two-time Clausius-Clapeyron(CC)relationship at lower temperatures.Daily as well as hourly precipitation extremes have a decreasing tendency nearly above 25℃,among which the decrease of hourly extremes is much more significant.In order to investigate the efects of rainfall durations,hourly precipitation extremes are presented by short duration and long duration precipitation,respectively.Results show that the dramatic decrease of hourly rainfall intensities above 25℃ is mainly caused by short duration precipitation,and long duration precipitation extremes rarely occur in South China when surface air temperature surpasses 28℃.

Extreme temperatures and out-of-hospital coronary deaths in six large Chinese cities.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Renjie; Li, Tiantian; Cai, Jing; Yan, Meilin; Zhao, Zhuohui; Kan, Haidong

2014-12-01

The seasonal trend of out-of-hospital coronary death (OHCD) and sudden cardiac death has been observed, but whether extreme temperature serves as a risk factor is rarely investigated. We therefore aimed to evaluate the impact of extreme temperatures on OHCDs in China. We obtained death records of 126,925 OHCDs from six large Chinese cities (Harbin, Beijing, Tianjin, Nanjing, Shanghai and Guangzhou) during the period 2009-2011. The short-term associations between extreme temperature and OHCDs were analysed with time-series methods in each city, using generalised additive Poisson regression models. We specified distributed lag non-linear models in studying the delayed effects of extreme temperature. We then applied Bayesian hierarchical models to combine the city-specific effect estimates. The associations between extreme temperature and OHCDs were almost U-shaped or J-shaped. The pooled relative risks (RRs) of extreme cold temperatures over the lags 0-14 days comparing the 1st and 25th centile temperatures were 1.49 (95% posterior interval (PI) 1.26-1.76); the pooled RRs of extreme hot temperatures comparing the 99th and 75th centile temperatures were 1.53 (95% PI 1.27-1.84) for OHCDs. The RRs of extreme temperature on OHCD were higher if the patients with coronary heart disease were old, male and less educated. This multicity epidemiological study suggested that both extreme cold and hot temperatures posed significant risks on OHCDs, and might have important public health implications for the prevention of OHCD or sudden cardiac death. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Event-adjusted evaluation of weather and climate extremes

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Müller, Miloslav; Kašpar, Marek

2014-01-01

Roč. 14, č. 2 (2014), s. 473-483 ISSN 1561-8633 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP209/11/1990 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : weather extreme * climate extreme * extremity evaluation * return period * generalized extreme value distribution * region of influence Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.735, year: 2014 http://www.nat-hazards- earth -syst-sci.net/14/473/2014/nhess-14-473-2014.pdf

Precessional Periods of Long and Short Foucault Pendulums

Science.gov (United States)

Soga, Michitoshi

1978-01-01

Derives the precessional period of a Foucault pendulum without using small oscillation amplitudes. Shows that if the path of the pendulum passes through the origin, the periods for differing amplitudes are essentially the same. (GA)

Effects of short term and long term Extremely Low Frequency Magnetic Field on depressive disorder in mice: Involvement of nitric oxide pathway.

Science.gov (United States)

Madjid Ansari, Alireza; Farzampour, Shahrokh; Sadr, Ali; Shekarchi, Babak; Majidzadeh-A, Keivan

2016-02-01

Previous reports on the possible effects of Extremely Low Frequency Magnetic Fields (ELF MF) on mood have been paradoxical in different settings while no study has yet been conducted on animal behavior. In addition, it was shown that ELF MF exposure makes an increase in brain nitric oxide level. Therefore, in the current study, we aimed to assess the possible effect(s) of ELF MF exposure on mice Forced Swimming Test (FST) and evaluate the probable role of the increased level of nitric oxide in the observed behavior. Male adult mice NMRI were recruited to investigate the short term and long term ELF MF exposure (0.5 mT and 50 Hz, single 2h and 2 weeks 2h a day). Locomotor behavior was assessed by using open-field test (OFT) followed by FST to evaluate the immobility time. Accordingly, NΩ-nitro-l-arginine methyl ester 30 mg/kg was used to exert anti-depressant like effect. According to the results, short term exposure did not alter the immobility time, whereas long term exposure significantly reduces immobility time (pmice, whereas short term exposure has no significant effect. Also, reversing the anti-depressant activity of L-NAME indicates a probable increase in the brain nitric oxide. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Recent and future extreme precipitation over Ukraine

Science.gov (United States)

Vyshkvarkova, Olena; Voskresenskaya, Elena

2014-05-01

of Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Typical space distribution of extreme precipitation (R95p) for seasons and for year is characterized by their southward intensity increasing from North-East and North-West. Summer precipitation extremes are characterized by quite homogeneous distribution. Linear trends of indices of precipitation extremes (R95p, R20mm and R30mm) for period 1951 - 2005 are mainly negative in winter season and positive in summer. To analyze the possible changes of extreme precipitation it was calculated the R95p index for recent climate period (1986 - 2005) and for periods 2046 - 2065 and 2081 - 2100 (as it was recommended by IPCC). Its difference between 1986 - 2005 and 2046 - 2065 shows that intensity of extreme precipitation will decrease in the north-east and increase in the south-west regions, especially in summer season. Magnitude of intensity changes of extreme precipitation will be ± 4 - 5 mm/day. The intensity changes of extreme precipitation since the recent climate period till the end of the century will be some less (2 - 3 mm/day) than in previous period, except summer months. Number of cases with precipitation extremes will be increase in southern regions of Ukraine in summer seasons. In other seasons it will be at the recent climate level.

Opacity calculations for extreme physical systems: code RACHEL

Science.gov (United States)

Drska, Ladislav; Sinor, Milan

1996-08-01

Computer simulations of physical systems under extreme conditions (high density, temperature, etc.) require the availability of extensive sets of atomic data. This paper presents basic information on a self-consistent approach to calculations of radiative opacity, one of the key characteristics of such systems. After a short explanation of general concepts of the atomic physics of extreme systems, the structure of the opacity code RACHEL is discussed and some of its applications are presented.

The Colorado Ultraviolet Transit Experiment (CUTE): Observing Mass Loss on Short-Period Exoplanets

Science.gov (United States)

Egan, Arika; Fleming, Brian; France, Kevin

2018-06-01

The Colorado Ultraviolet Transit Experiment (CUTE) is an NUV spectrograph packaged into a 6U CubeSat, designed to characterize the interaction between exoplanetary atmospheres and their host stars. CUTE will conduct a transit spectroscopy survey, gathering data over multiple transits on more than 12 short-period exoplanets with a range of masses and radii. The instrument will characterize the spectral properties of the transit light curves to atomic and molecular absorption features predicted to exist in the upper atmospheres of these planets, including Mg I, Mg II, Fe II, and OH. The shape and evolution of these spectral light curves will be used to quantify mass loss rates, the stellar drives of that mass loss, and the possible existence of exoplanetary magnetic fiends. This poster presents the science motivation for CUTE, planned observation and data analysis methods, and expected results.

Legacies from extreme drought increase ecosystem sensitivity to future extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, M. D.; Knapp, A.; Hoover, D. L.; Avolio, M. L.; Felton, A. J.; Wilcox, K. R.

2016-12-01

Climate extremes, such as drought, are increasing in frequency and intensity, and the ecological consequences of these extreme events can be substantial and widespread. Although there is still much to be learned about how ecosystems will respond to an intensification of drought, even less is known about the factors that determine post-drought recovery of ecosystem function. Such knowledge is particularly important because post-drought recovery periods can be protracted depending on the extent to which key plant populations, community structure and biogeochemical processes are affected. These drought legacies may alter ecosystem function for many years post-drought and may impact future sensitivity to climate extremes. We experimentally imposed two extreme growing season droughts in a central US grassland to assess the impacts of repeated droughts on ecosystem resistance (response) and resilience (recovery). We found that this grassland was not resistant to the first extreme drought due to reduced productivity and differential sensitivity of the co-dominant C4 grass (Andropogon gerardii) and C3 forb (Solidago canadensis) species. This differential sensitivity led to a reordering of species abundances within the plant community. Yet, despite this large shift in plant community composition, which persisted post-drought, the grassland was highly resilient post-drought, due to increased abundance of the dominant C4 grass. Because of this shift to increased C4 grass dominance, we expected that previously-droughted grassland would be more resistant to a second extreme drought. However, contrary to these expectations, previously droughted grassland was more sensitive to drought than grassland that had not experienced drought. Thus, our result suggest that legacies of drought (shift in community composition) may increase ecosystem sensitivity to future extreme events.

Extreme climate, not extreme weather: the summer of 1816 in Geneva, Switzerland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Auchmann

2012-02-01

Full Text Available We analyze weather and climate during the "Year without Summer" 1816 using sub-daily data from Geneva, Switzerland, representing one of the climatically most severely affected regions. The record includes twice daily measurements and observations of air temperature, pressure, cloud cover, wind speed, and wind direction as well as daily measurements of precipitation. Comparing 1816 to a contemporary reference period (1799–1821 reveals that the coldness of the summer of 1816 was most prominent in the afternoon, with a shift of the entire distribution function of temperature anomalies by 3–4 °C. Early morning temperature anomalies show a smaller change for the mean, a significant decrease in the variability, and no changes in negative extremes. Analyzing cloudy and cloud-free conditions separately suggests that an increase in the number of cloudy days was to a significant extent responsible for these features. A daily weather type classification based on pressure, pressure tendency, and wind direction shows extremely anomalous frequencies in summer 1816, with only one day (compared to 20 in an average summer classified as high-pressure situation but a tripling of low-pressure situations. The afternoon temperature anomalies expected from only a change in weather types was much stronger negative in summer 1816 than in any other year. For precipitation, our analysis shows that the 80% increase in summer precipitation compared to the reference period can be explained by 80% increase in the frequency of precipitation, while no change could be found neither in the average intensity of precipitation nor in the frequency distribution of extreme precipitation. In all, the analysis shows that the regional circulation and local cloud cover played a dominant role. It also shows that the summer of 1816 was an example of extreme climate, not extreme weather.

Probabilistic analysis of extreme wind events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chaviaropoulos, P.K. [Center for Renewable Energy Sources (CRES), Pikermi Attikis (Greece)

1997-12-31

A vital task in wind engineering and meterology is to understand, measure, analyse and forecast extreme wind conditions, due to their significant effects on human activities and installations like buildings, bridges or wind turbines. The latest version of the IEC standard (1996) pays particular attention to the extreme wind events that have to be taken into account when designing or certifying a wind generator. Actually, the extreme wind events within a 50 year period are those which determine the ``static`` design of most of the wind turbine components. The extremes which are important for the safety of wind generators are those associated with the so-called ``survival wind speed``, the extreme operating gusts and the extreme wind direction changes. A probabilistic approach for the analysis of these events is proposed in this paper. Emphasis is put on establishing the relation between extreme values and physically meaningful ``site calibration`` parameters, like probability distribution of the annual wind speed, turbulence intensity and power spectra properties. (Author)

A Conceptual Model for Calculating the Return of Costs Invested in the Creation of an Economic Security Service, During a Short-Term Period

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Melikhova Tetiana O.

2018-02-01

Full Text Available The article is aimed at suggesting methods for calculating the short-term period of return of costs invested in creation of an economic security service. The article considers approaches to calculation of the period of return of costs, advanced at the level of enterprise, which build the methodical basis for definition of such period. At the level of structural subdivisions of enterprise, which do not produce products, it is suggested to use conditional money flow as a source of financing advanced costs. The calculation of the short-term return on investment at the enterprise level provides for: allocation of expenses for the permanent and the replacement parts during the year; determination of the production of money flow and the money flow accumulated during the year. Annual depreciation payments are the basis of fixed costs. Methods of determination of the gross, net, valid, and specified periods of return of costs, advanced during the year for introduction of an economic security service at enterprise, have been suggested.

Towards a Fundamental Understanding of Short Period Eclipsing Binary Systems Using Kepler Data

Science.gov (United States)

Prsa, Andrej

Kepler's ultra-high precision photometry is revolutionizing stellar astrophysics. We are seeing intrinsic phenomena on an unprecedented scale, and interpreting them is both a challenge and an exciting privilege. Eclipsing binary stars are of particular significance for stellar astrophysics because precise modeling leads to fundamental parameters of the orbiting components: masses, radii, temperatures and luminosities to better than 1-2%. On top of that, eclipsing binaries are ideal physical laboratories for studying other physical phenomena, such as asteroseismic properties, chromospheric activity, proximity effects, mass transfer in close binaries, etc. Because of the eclipses, the basic geometry is well constrained, but a follow-up spectroscopy is required to get the dynamical masses and the absolute scale of the system. A conjunction of Kepler photometry and ground- based spectroscopy is a treasure trove for eclipsing binary star astrophysics. This proposal focuses on a carefully selected set of 100 short period eclipsing binary stars. The fundamental goal of the project is to study the intrinsic astrophysical effects typical of short period binaries in great detail, utilizing Kepler photometry and follow-up spectroscopy to devise a robust and consistent set of modeling results. The complementing spectroscopy is being secured from 3 approved and fully funded programs: the NOAO 4-m echelle spectroscopy at Kitt Peak (30 nights; PI Prsa), the 10- m Hobby-Eberly Telescope high-resolution spectroscopy (PI Mahadevan), and the 2.5-m Sloan Digital Sky Survey III spectroscopy (PI Mahadevan). The targets are prioritized by the projected scientific yield. Short period detached binaries host low-mass (K- and M- type) components for which the mass-radius relationship is sparsely populated and still poorly understood, as the radii appear up to 20% larger than predicted by the population models. We demonstrate the spectroscopic detection viability in the secondary

Feature selection in wind speed prediction systems based on a hybrid coral reefs optimization – Extreme learning machine approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salcedo-Sanz, S.; Pastor-Sánchez, A.; Prieto, L.; Blanco-Aguilera, A.; García-Herrera, R.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • A novel approach for short-term wind speed prediction is presented. • The system is formed by a coral reefs optimization algorithm and an extreme learning machine. • Feature selection is carried out with the CRO to improve the ELM performance. • The method is tested in real wind farm data in USA, for the period 2007–2008. - Abstract: This paper presents a novel approach for short-term wind speed prediction based on a Coral Reefs Optimization algorithm (CRO) and an Extreme Learning Machine (ELM), using meteorological predictive variables from a physical model (the Weather Research and Forecast model, WRF). The approach is based on a Feature Selection Problem (FSP) carried out with the CRO, that must obtain a reduced number of predictive variables out of the total available from the WRF. This set of features will be the input of an ELM, that finally provides the wind speed prediction. The CRO is a novel bio-inspired approach, based on the simulation of reef formation and coral reproduction, able to obtain excellent results in optimization problems. On the other hand, the ELM is a new paradigm in neural networks’ training, that provides a robust and extremely fast training of the network. Together, these algorithms are able to successfully solve this problem of feature selection in short-term wind speed prediction. Experiments in a real wind farm in the USA show the excellent performance of the CRO–ELM approach in this FSP wind speed prediction problem

On the use of volumetric strain meters to infer additional characteristics of short-period seismic radiation

Science.gov (United States)

Borcherdt, R.D.; Johnston, M.J.S.; Glassmoyer, G.

1989-01-01

Volumetric strain meters (Sacks-Evertson design) are installed at 15 sites along the San Andreas fault system, to monitor long-term strain changes for earthquake prediction. Deployment of portable broadband, high-resolution digital recorders (GEOS) at several of the sites extends the detection band for volumetric strain to periods shorter than 5 ?? 10-2 sec and permits the simultaneous observation of seismic radiation fields using conventional short-period pendulum seismometers. Recordings of local and regional earthquakes indicate that dilatometers respond to P energy but not direct shear energy and that straingrams can be used to resolve superimposed reflect P and S waves for inference of wave characteristics not permitted by either sensor alone. Simultaneous measurements of incident P- and S-wave amplitudes are used to introduce a technique for single-station estimates of wave field inhomogeneity, free-surface reflection coefficients and local material P velocity. -from Authors

Textured dysprosium and gadolinium poles for high-field, short-period hybrid undulators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murokh, Alex; Solovyov, Vyacheslav; Agustsson, Ron; O'Shea, Finn H.; Chubar, Oleg; Chen, Yung; Grandsaert, Thomas

2014-01-01

We discuss the feasibility of enhancement of the gap field in a short-period hybrid undulator by using pole inserts with the saturation inductance B s , over that of iron, 2 T. Dysprosium metal, with the saturation inductance of 3.4 T below 90 K, and Gadolinium with B s =2.7 T, appear as good candidates as the optimized pole material. However, due to the high magnetic anisotropy of Dy, such a high level of magnetization can only be realized when the external field lies in the basal plane. This implies that the pole has to be single-crystalline or highly textured. Considering that growing large, >10mm, Dy single crystals is difficult, we propose secondary recrystallization as a method to induce the required texture in thin Dy and Gd foils. The textured foils can be stacked to produce pole inserts of the desired geometry and orientation. Results of small-scale processing and magnetic measurements of thin (20–60 μ) foils provide evidence that the required texture quality can be achieved by a relatively simple sequence of heat-treatments and cold rolling. The advantage of textured Dy and Gd poles is demonstrated in a several period test undulator. -- Highlights: • Textured rare-earth materials for use as undulator pole materials. • We measure the development of texture in Dy and Gd. • We compare the rare-earth materials with high saturation steel in undulators. • Thin sheets of Dy and Gd materials perform similar to single crystals

Exercise following a short immobilization period is detrimental to tendon properties and joint mechanics in a rat rotator cuff injury model.

Science.gov (United States)

Peltz, Cathryn D; Sarver, Joseph J; Dourte, Leann M; Würgler-Hauri, Carola C; Williams, Gerald R; Soslowsky, Louis J

2010-07-01

Rotator cuff tears are a common clinical problem that can result in pain and disability. Previous studies in a rat model showed enhanced tendon to bone healing with postoperative immobilization. The objective of this study was to determine the effect of postimmobilization activity level on insertion site properties and joint mechanics in a rat model. Our hypothesis was that exercise following a short period of immobilization will cause detrimental changes in insertion site properties compared to cage activity following the same period of immobilization, but that passive shoulder mechanics will not be affected. We detached and repaired the supraspinatus tendon of 22 Sprague-Dawley rats, and the injured shoulder was immobilized postoperatively for 2 weeks. Following immobilization, rats were prescribed cage activity or exercise for 12 weeks. Passive shoulder mechanics were determined, and following euthanasia, tendon cross-sectional area and mechanical properties were measured. Exercise following immobilization resulted in significant decreases compared to cage activity in range of motion, tendon stiffness, modulus, percent relaxation, and several parameters from both a structurally based elastic model and a quasi-linear viscoelastic model. Therefore, we conclude that after a short period of immobilization, increased activity is detrimental to both tendon mechanical properties and shoulder joint mechanics, presumably due to increased scar production. (c) 2010 Orthopaedic Research Society. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc

X-RAY AND EUV OBSERVATIONS OF SIMULTANEOUS SHORT AND LONG PERIOD OSCILLATIONS IN HOT CORONAL ARCADE LOOPS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kumar, Pankaj; Cho, Kyung-Suk; Nakariakov, Valery M.

2015-01-01

We report decaying quasi-periodic intensity oscillations in the X-ray (6–12 keV) and extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) channels (131, 94, 1600, 304 Å) observed by the Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor and Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA), respectively, during a C-class flare. The estimated periods of oscillation and decay time in the X-ray channel (6–12 keV) were about 202 and 154 s, respectively. A similar oscillation period was detected at the footpoint of the arcade loops in the AIA 1600 and 304 Å channels. Simultaneously, AIA hot channels (94 and 131 Å) reveal propagating EUV disturbances bouncing back and forth between the footpoints of the arcade loops. The period of the oscillation and decay time were about 409 and 1121 s, respectively. The characteristic phase speed of the wave is about 560 km s −1 for about 115 Mm of loop length, which is roughly consistent with the sound speed at the temperature about 10–16 MK (480–608 km s −1 ). These EUV oscillations are consistent with the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Solar Ultraviolet Measurement of Emitted Radiation Doppler-shift oscillations interpreted as the global standing slow magnetoacoustic wave excited by a flare. The flare occurred at one of the footpoints of the arcade loops, where the magnetic topology was a 3D fan-spine with a null-point. Repetitive reconnection at this footpoint could have caused the periodic acceleration of non-thermal electrons that propagated to the opposite footpoint along the arcade and that are precipitating there, causing the observed 202 s periodicity. Other possible interpretations, e.g., the second harmonics of the slow mode, are also discussed

X-RAY AND EUV OBSERVATIONS OF SIMULTANEOUS SHORT AND LONG PERIOD OSCILLATIONS IN HOT CORONAL ARCADE LOOPS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kumar, Pankaj; Cho, Kyung-Suk [Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI), Daejeon, 305-348 (Korea, Republic of); Nakariakov, Valery M., E-mail: pankaj@kasi.re.kr [Centre for Fusion, Space and Astrophysics, Department of Physics, University of Warwick, CV4 7AL (United Kingdom)

2015-05-01

We report decaying quasi-periodic intensity oscillations in the X-ray (6–12 keV) and extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) channels (131, 94, 1600, 304 Å) observed by the Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor and Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA), respectively, during a C-class flare. The estimated periods of oscillation and decay time in the X-ray channel (6–12 keV) were about 202 and 154 s, respectively. A similar oscillation period was detected at the footpoint of the arcade loops in the AIA 1600 and 304 Å channels. Simultaneously, AIA hot channels (94 and 131 Å) reveal propagating EUV disturbances bouncing back and forth between the footpoints of the arcade loops. The period of the oscillation and decay time were about 409 and 1121 s, respectively. The characteristic phase speed of the wave is about 560 km s{sup −1} for about 115 Mm of loop length, which is roughly consistent with the sound speed at the temperature about 10–16 MK (480–608 km s{sup −1}). These EUV oscillations are consistent with the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Solar Ultraviolet Measurement of Emitted Radiation Doppler-shift oscillations interpreted as the global standing slow magnetoacoustic wave excited by a flare. The flare occurred at one of the footpoints of the arcade loops, where the magnetic topology was a 3D fan-spine with a null-point. Repetitive reconnection at this footpoint could have caused the periodic acceleration of non-thermal electrons that propagated to the opposite footpoint along the arcade and that are precipitating there, causing the observed 202 s periodicity. Other possible interpretations, e.g., the second harmonics of the slow mode, are also discussed.

The Discovery and Mass Measurement of a New Ultra-short-period Planet: K2-131b

Science.gov (United States)

Dai, Fei; Winn, Joshua N.; Gandolfi, Davide; Wang, Sharon X.; Teske, Johanna K.; Burt, Jennifer; Albrecht, Simon; Barragán, Oscar; Cochran, William D.; Endl, Michael; Fridlund, Malcolm; Hatzes, Artie P.; Hirano, Teruyuki; Hirsch, Lea A.; Johnson, Marshall C.; Justesen, Anders Bo; Livingston, John; Persson, Carina M.; Prieto-Arranz, Jorge; Vanderburg, Andrew; Alonso, Roi; Antoniciello, Giuliano; Arriagada, Pamela; Butler, R. P.; Cabrera, Juan; Crane, Jeffrey D.; Cusano, Felice; Csizmadia, Szilárd; Deeg, Hans; Dieterich, Sergio B.; Eigmüller, Philipp; Erikson, Anders; Everett, Mark E.; Fukui, Akihiko; Grziwa, Sascha; Guenther, Eike W.; Henry, Gregory W.; Howell, Steve B.; Johnson, John Asher; Korth, Judith; Kuzuhara, Masayuki; Narita, Norio; Nespral, David; Nowak, Grzegorz; Palle, Enric; Pätzold, Martin; Rauer, Heike; Montañés Rodríguez, Pilar; Shectman, Stephen A.; Smith, Alexis M. S.; Thompson, Ian B.; Van Eylen, Vincent; Williamson, Michael W.; Wittenmyer, Robert A.

2017-12-01

We report the discovery of a new ultra-short-period planet and summarize the properties of all such planets for which the mass and radius have been measured. The new planet, K2-131b, was discovered in K2 Campaign 10. It has a radius of {1.81}-0.12+0.16 {R}\\oplus and orbits a G dwarf with a period of 8.9 hr. Radial velocities obtained with Magellan/PFS and TNG/HARPS-N show evidence for stellar activity along with orbital motion. We determined the planetary mass using two different methods: (1) the “floating chunk offset” method, based only on changes in velocity observed on the same night; and (2) a Gaussian process regression based on both the radial velocity and photometric time series. The results are consistent and lead to a mass measurement of 6.5+/- 1.6 {M}\\oplus and a mean density of {6.0}-2.7+3.0 g cm-3.

Recent and future warm extreme events and high-mountain slope stability.

Science.gov (United States)

Huggel, C; Salzmann, N; Allen, S; Caplan-Auerbach, J; Fischer, L; Haeberli, W; Larsen, C; Schneider, D; Wessels, R

2010-05-28

The number of large slope failures in some high-mountain regions such as the European Alps has increased during the past two to three decades. There is concern that recent climate change is driving this increase in slope failures, thus possibly further exacerbating the hazard in the future. Although the effects of a gradual temperature rise on glaciers and permafrost have been extensively studied, the impacts of short-term, unusually warm temperature increases on slope stability in high mountains remain largely unexplored. We describe several large slope failures in rock and ice in recent years in Alaska, New Zealand and the European Alps, and analyse weather patterns in the days and weeks before the failures. Although we did not find one general temperature pattern, all the failures were preceded by unusually warm periods; some happened immediately after temperatures suddenly dropped to freezing. We assessed the frequency of warm extremes in the future by analysing eight regional climate models from the recently completed European Union programme ENSEMBLES for the central Swiss Alps. The models show an increase in the higher frequency of high-temperature events for the period 2001-2050 compared with a 1951-2000 reference period. Warm events lasting 5, 10 and 30 days are projected to increase by about 1.5-4 times by 2050 and in some models by up to 10 times. Warm extremes can trigger large landslides in temperature-sensitive high mountains by enhancing the production of water by melt of snow and ice, and by rapid thaw. Although these processes reduce slope strength, they must be considered within the local geological, glaciological and topographic context of a slope.

The probability distribution of extreme precipitation

Science.gov (United States)

Korolev, V. Yu.; Gorshenin, A. K.

2017-12-01

On the basis of the negative binomial distribution of the duration of wet periods calculated per day, an asymptotic model is proposed for distributing the maximum daily rainfall volume during the wet period, having the form of a mixture of Frechet distributions and coinciding with the distribution of the positive degree of a random variable having the Fisher-Snedecor distribution. The method of proving the corresponding result is based on limit theorems for extreme order statistics in samples of a random volume with a mixed Poisson distribution. The adequacy of the models proposed and methods of their statistical analysis is demonstrated by the example of estimating the extreme distribution parameters based on real data.

Atmospheric circulation over the Bolivian Altiplano during dry and wet periods and extreme phases of the Southern Oscillation

Science.gov (United States)

Vuille, M.

1999-11-01

The atmospheric circulation over the Bolivian Altiplano during composite WET and DRY periods and during HIGH and LOW index phases of the Southern Oscillation was investigated using daily radiosonde data from Antofagasta (Chile), Salta (Argentina), Lima (Peru) and La Paz (Bolivia), daily precipitation data from the Bolivian/Chilean border between 18° and 19°S and monthly NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) reanalysis data between 1960 and 1998. In austral summer (DJF) the atmosphere during WET periods is characterized by easterly wind anomalies in the middle and upper troposphere over the Altiplano, resulting in increased moisture influx from the interior of the continent near the Altiplano surface. The Bolivian High is intensified and displaced southward. On the other hand, westerly winds usually prevail during DRY summer periods, preventing the moisture transport from the east from reaching the western Altiplano. Precipitation tends to be deficient over the western Bolivian Altiplano during LOW index summers and above average during HIGH and LOW+1 summers, but the relation is weak and statistically insignificant. LOW summers feature broadly similar atmospheric circulation anomalies as DRY periods and can be regarded as an extended DRY period or as a summer with increased occurrence of DRY episodes. HIGH summers, and to a lesser degree LOW+1 summers, are characterized by broadly opposite atmospheric characteristics, featuring a more pronounced Bolivian High located significantly further south, and easterly wind anomalies over the Altiplano. In winter (JJA) precipitation events are rare; these are associated with increased northerly and westerly wind components, reduced pressure and temperature, and increased specific humidity over the entire Altiplano. Atmospheric circulation anomalies during LOW periods are less pronounced in austral winter (JJA) than in summer, but generally feature similar changes (increased temperatures and a vertically

Ultrawide spectral broadening and compression of single extremely short pulses in the visible, uv-vuv, and middle infrared by high-order stimulated Raman scattering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kalosha, V. P.; Herrmann, J.

2003-01-01

We present the results of a comprehensive analytical and numerical study of ultrawide spectral broadening and compression of isolated extremely short visible, uv-vuv and middle infrared (MIR) pulses by high-order stimulated Raman scattering in hollow waveguides. Spectral and temporal characteristics of the output pulses and the mechanism of pulse compression using dispersion of the gas filling and output glass window are investigated without the slowly varying envelope approximation. Physical limitations due to phase mismatch, velocity walk off, and pump-pulse depletion as well as improvements through the use of pump-pulse sequences and dispersion control are studied. It is shown that phase-locked pulses as short as ∼2 fs in the visible and uv-vuv, and 6.5 fs in the MIR can be generated by coherent scattering in impulsively excited Raman media without the necessity of external phase control. Using pump-pulse sequences, shortest durations in the range of about 1 fs for visible and uv-vuv probe pulses are predicted

Quantifying the consequences of changing hydroclimatic extremes on protection levels for the Rhine

Science.gov (United States)

Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; Hegnauer, Mark; Buiteveld, Hendrik; Lammersen, Rita; van den Boogaard, Henk; Beersma, Jules

2017-04-01

The Dutch method for quantifying the magnitude and frequency of occurrence of discharge extremes in the Rhine basin and the potential influence of climate change hereon are presented. In the Netherlands flood protection design requires estimates of discharge extremes for return periods of 1000 up to 100,000 years. Observed discharge records are too short to derive such extreme return discharges, therefore extreme value assessment is based on very long synthetic discharge time-series generated with the Generator of Rainfall And Discharge Extremes (GRADE). The GRADE instrument consists of (1) a stochastic weather generator based on time series resampling of historical f rainfall and temperature and (2) a hydrological model optimized following the GLUE methodology and (3) a hydrodynamic model to simulate the propagation of flood waves based on the generated hydrological time-series. To assess the potential influence of climate change, the four KNMI'14 climate scenarios are applied. These four scenarios represent a large part of the uncertainty provided by the GCMs used for the IPCC 5th assessment report (the CMIP5 GCM simulations under different climate forcings) and are for this purpose tailored to the Rhine and Meuse river basins. To derive the probability distributions of extreme discharges under climate change the historical synthetic rainfall and temperature series simulated with the weather generator are transformed to the future following the KNMI'14 scenarios. For this transformation the Advanced Delta Change method, which allows that the changes in the extremes differ from those in the means, is used. Subsequently the hydrological model is forced with the historical and future (i.e. transformed) synthetic time-series after which the propagation of the flood waves is simulated with the hydrodynamic model to obtain the extreme discharge statistics both for current and future climate conditions. The study shows that both for 2050 and 2085 increases in discharge

PG 0308 + 096 and PG 1026 + 002 - Two new short period binary stars resulting from common-envelope evolution

Science.gov (United States)

Saffer, Rex A.; Wade, Richard A.; Liebert, James; Green, Richard F.; Sion, Edward M.; Bechtold, J.; Foss, Diana; Kidder, K.

1993-01-01

Ultraviolet spectroscopy, optical spectroscopy, and spectrophotometry have been used to study the excess UV stars PG 0308 + 096 and PG 1026 + 002. Both objects are short-period binary systems, each containing a DA white dwarf star and a dM star. Orbital periods of approximately 0.284 day for PG 0308 + 096, and aproximately 0.597 day for PG 1026, have been found by spectroscopic analysis of the H-alpha emission line. Ly-alpha and Balmer line profile fitting were used to estimate the mass of white dwarf stars; mass estimates for the dM stars are based on their spectral types. The orbital inclinations are derived from these masses, the periods, and amplitudes of the H-alpha radial velocity curves. The equivalent width of the H-alpha emission line, in each binary system, varies with the orbital phase in such a manner as to imply that it arises, in large part at least, from the hemisphere of the M star that faces the white dwarf star.

A neutral network based technique for short-term forecasting of anomalous load periods

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sforna, M [ENEL, s.p.a, Italian Power Company (Italy); Lamedica, R; Prudenzi, A [Rome Univ. ` La Sapienza` , Rome (Italy); Caciotta, M; Orsolini Cencelli, V [Rome Univ. III, Rome (Italy)

1995-01-01

The paper illustrates a part of the research activity conducted by authors in the field of electric Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN) architectures. Previous experiences with basic ANN architectures have shown that, even though these architecture provide results comparable with those obtained by human operators for most normal days, they evidence some accuracy deficiencies when applied to `anomalous` load conditions occurring during holidays and long weekends. For these periods a specific procedure based upon a combined (unsupervised/supervised) approach has been proposed. The unsupervised stage provides a preventive classification of the historical load data by means of a Kohonen`s Self Organizing Map (SOM). The supervised stage, performing the proper forecasting activity, is obtained by using a multi-layer percept ron with a back propagation learning algorithm similar to the ones above mentioned. The unconventional use of information deriving from the classification stage permits the proposed procedure to obtain a relevant enhancement of the forecast accuracy for anomalous load situations.

Risk assessment of precipitation extremes in northern Xinjiang, China

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Jun; Pei, Ying; Zhang, Yanwei; Ge, Quansheng

2018-05-01

This study was conducted using daily precipitation records gathered at 37 meteorological stations in northern Xinjiang, China, from 1961 to 2010. We used the extreme value theory model, generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD), statistical distribution function to fit outputs of precipitation extremes with different return periods to estimate risks of precipitation extremes and diagnose aridity-humidity environmental variation and corresponding spatial patterns in northern Xinjiang. Spatiotemporal patterns of daily maximum precipitation showed that aridity-humidity conditions of northern Xinjiang could be well represented by the return periods of the precipitation data. Indices of daily maximum precipitation were effective in the prediction of floods in the study area. By analyzing future projections of daily maximum precipitation (2, 5, 10, 30, 50, and 100 years), we conclude that the flood risk will gradually increase in northern Xinjiang. GEV extreme value modeling yielded the best results, proving to be extremely valuable. Through example analysis for extreme precipitation models, the GEV statistical model was superior in terms of favorable analog extreme precipitation. The GPD model calculation results reflect annual precipitation. For most of the estimated sites' 2 and 5-year T for precipitation levels, GPD results were slightly greater than GEV results. The study found that extreme precipitation reaching a certain limit value level will cause a flood disaster. Therefore, predicting future extreme precipitation may aid warnings of flood disaster. A suitable policy concerning effective water resource management is thus urgently required.

Contribution of large-scale circulation anomalies to changes in extreme precipitation frequency in the United States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu, Lejiang; Zhong, Shiyuan; Pei, Lisi; Bian, Xindi; Heilman, Warren E

2016-01-01

The mean global climate has warmed as a result of the increasing emission of greenhouse gases induced by human activities. This warming is considered the main reason for the increasing number of extreme precipitation events in the US. While much attention has been given to extreme precipitation events occurring over several days, which are usually responsible for severe flooding over a large region, little is known about how extreme precipitation events that cause flash flooding and occur at sub-daily time scales have changed over time. Here we use the observed hourly precipitation from the North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 forcing datasets to determine trends in the frequency of extreme precipitation events of short (1 h, 3 h, 6 h, 12 h and 24 h) duration for the period 1979–2013. The results indicate an increasing trend in the central and eastern US. Over most of the western US, especially the Southwest and the Intermountain West, the trends are generally negative. These trends can be largely explained by the interdecadal variability of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), with the AMO making a greater contribution to the trends in both warm and cold seasons. (letter)

Phenological response of an Arizona dryland forest to short-term climatic extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Walker, Jessica; de Beurs, Kirsten; Wynne, Randolph

2015-01-01

Baseline information about dryland forest phenology is necessary to accurately anticipate future ecosystem shifts. The overarching goal of our study was to investigate the variability of vegetation phenology across a dryland forest landscape in response to climate alterations. We analyzed the influence of site characteristics and climatic conditions on the phenological patterns of an Arizona, USA, ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forest during a five-year period (2005 to 2009) that encompassed extreme wet and dry precipitation regimes. We assembled 80 synthetic Landsat images by applying the spatial and temporal adaptive reflectance fusion method (STARFM) to 500 m MODIS and 30 m Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper (TM) data. We tested relationships between site characteristics and the timing of peak Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to assess the effect of climatic stress on the green-up of individual pixels during or after the summer monsoon. Our results show that drought-induced stress led to a fragmented phenological response that was highly dependent on microsite parameters, as both the spatial autocorrelation of peak timing and the number of significant site variables increased during the drought year. Pixels at lower elevations and with higher proportions of herbaceous vegetation were more likely to exhibit dynamic responses to changes in precipitation conditions. Our study demonstrates the complexity of responses within dryland forest ecosystems and highlights the need for standardized monitoring of phenology trends in these areas. The spatial and temporal variability of phenological signals may provide a quantitative solution to the problem of how to evaluate dryland land surface trends across time.

Phenological Response of an Arizona Dryland Forest to Short-Term Climatic Extremes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jessica Walker

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Baseline information about dryland forest phenology is necessary to accurately anticipate future ecosystem shifts. The overarching goal of our study was to investigate the variability of vegetation phenology across a dryland forest landscape in response to climate alterations. We analyzed the influence of site characteristics and climatic conditions on the phenological patterns of an Arizona, USA, ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa forest during a five-year period (2005 to 2009 that encompassed extreme wet and dry precipitation regimes. We assembled 80 synthetic Landsat images by applying the spatial and temporal adaptive reflectance fusion method (STARFM to 500 m MODIS and 30 m Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper (TM data. We tested relationships between site characteristics and the timing of peak Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI to assess the effect of climatic stress on the green-up of individual pixels during or after the summer monsoon. Our results show that drought-induced stress led to a fragmented phenological response that was highly dependent on microsite parameters, as both the spatial autocorrelation of peak timing and the number of significant site variables increased during the drought year. Pixels at lower elevations and with higher proportions of herbaceous vegetation were more likely to exhibit dynamic responses to changes in precipitation conditions. Our study demonstrates the complexity of responses within dryland forest ecosystems and highlights the need for standardized monitoring of phenology trends in these areas. The spatial and temporal variability of phenological signals may provide a quantitative solution to the problem of how to evaluate dryland land surface trends across time.

The relative kicking frequency of infants born full-term and preterm during learning and short-term and long-term memory periods of the mobile paradigm.

Science.gov (United States)

Heathcock, Jill C; Bhat, Anjana N; Lobo, Michele A; Galloway, James C

2005-01-01

Infants born preterm differ in their spontaneous kicking, as well as their learning and memory abilities in the mobile paradigm, compared with infants born full-term. In the mobile paradigm, a supine infant's ankle is tethered to a mobile so that leg kicks cause a proportional amount of mobile movement. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relative kicking frequency of the tethered (right) and nontethered (left) legs in these 2 groups of infants. Ten infants born full-term and 10 infants born preterm (infants participated in the study. The relative kicking frequencies of the tethered and nontethered legs were analyzed during learning and short-term and long-term memory periods of the mobile paradigm. Infants born full-term showed an increase in the relative kicking frequency of the tethered leg during the learning period and the short-term memory period but not for the long-term memory period. Infants born preterm did not show a change in kicking pattern for learning or memory periods, and consistently kicked both legs in relatively equal amounts. Infants born full-term adapted their baseline kicking frequencies in a task-specific manner to move the mobile and then retained this adaptation for the short-term memory period. In contrast, infants born preterm showed no adaptation, suggesting a lack of purposeful leg control. This lack of control may reflect a general decrease in the ability of infants born preterm to use their limb movements to interact with their environment. As such, the mobile paradigm may be clinically useful in the early assessment and intervention of infants born preterm and at risk for future impairment.

Factors affecting the thermal environment of Agassiz’s Desert Tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) cover sites in the Central Mojave Desert during periods of temperature extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Mack, Jeremy S.; Berry, Kristin H.; Miller, David; Carlson, Andrea S.

2015-01-01

Agassiz's Desert Tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) spend >95% of their lives underground in cover sites that serve as thermal buffers from temperatures, which can fluctuate >40°C on a daily and seasonal basis. We monitored temperatures at 30 active tortoise cover sites within the Soda Mountains, San Bernardino County, California, from February 2004 to September 2006. Cover sites varied in type and structural characteristics, including opening height and width, soil cover depth over the opening, aspect, tunnel length, and surficial geology. We focused our analyses on periods of extreme temperature: in summer, between July 1 and September 1, and winter, between November 1 and February 15. With the use of multivariate regression tree analyses, we found cover-site temperatures were influenced largely by tunnel length and subsequently opening width and soil cover. Linear regression models further showed that increasing tunnel length increased temperature stability and dampened seasonal temperature extremes. Climate change models predict increased warming for southwestern North America. Cover sites that buffer temperature extremes and fluctuations will become increasingly important for survival of tortoises. In planning future translocation projects and conservation efforts, decision makers should consider habitats with terrain and underlying substrate that sustain cover sites with long tunnels and expanded openings for tortoises living under temperature extremes similar to those described here or as projected in the future.

Development of heat and drought related extreme weather events and their effect on winter wheat yields in Germany

Science.gov (United States)

Lüttger, Andrea B.; Feike, Til

2018-04-01

Climate change constitutes a major challenge for high productivity in wheat, the most widely grown crop in Germany. Extreme weather events including dry spells and heat waves, which negatively affect wheat yields, are expected to aggravate in the future. It is crucial to improve the understanding of the spatiotemporal development of such extreme weather events and the respective crop-climate relationships in Germany. Thus, the present study is a first attempt to evaluate the historic development of relevant drought and heat-related extreme weather events from 1901 to 2010 on county level (NUTS-3) in Germany. Three simple drought indices and two simple heat stress indices were used in the analysis. A continuous increase in dry spells over time was observed over the investigated periods from 1901-1930, 1931-1960, 1961-1990 to 2001-2010. Short and medium dry spells, i.e., precipitation-free periods longer than 5 and 8 days, respectively, increased more strongly compared to longer dry spells (longer than 11 days). The heat-related stress indices with maximum temperatures above 25 and 28 °C during critical wheat growth phases showed no significant increase over the first three periods but an especially sharp increase in the final 1991-2010 period with the increases being particularly pronounced in parts of Southwestern Germany. Trend analysis over the entire 110-year period using Mann-Kendall test revealed a significant positive trend for all investigated indices except for heat stress above 25 °C during flowering period. The analysis of county-level yield data from 1981 to 2010 revealed declining spatial yield variability and rather constant temporal yield variability over the three investigated (1981-1990, 1991-2000, and 2001-2010) decades. A clear spatial gradient manifested over time with variability in the West being much smaller than in the east of Germany. Correlating yield variability with the previously analyzed extreme weather indices revealed strong

The Short Selling Regulation in the EU: Assessing the Authorization Granted for ESMA to Prohibit Short Selling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matias Huhtilainen

2017-07-01

Full Text Available The paper discusses the renewed short selling regulation (Regulation (EU No 236/2012 in the European Union. The focus is on the provisions that deal with prohibiting short selling in exceptional market circumstances. The Regulation further enforces certain obligations to report and disclose short positions. It is concluded that banning short selling is not an effective tool to contain extreme price volatility. The difference-in-differences regression and repeated measures GLM were used to test whether short selling bans were successful in containing volatility of those Spanish and Italian stocks that were subject to two back-to-back prohibitions during the years 2011-2013. The results are consistent with the majority of previous research, suggesting that the effectiveness of short sale constraints in reducing volatility is limited at best. Furthermore, there are evidence of counterproductive effects: constraints on short selling may actually increase volatility as well as deteriorate liquidity. However, based on theory and previous studies, reporting and disclosure requirements shall be favored provided they improve market efficiency as well as supervisory work of regulatory bodies.This paper discusses the renewed short selling regulation (Regulation (EU No 236/2012 in the European Union. The focus is on the provisions that deal with prohibiting short selling in exceptional market circumstances. The Regulation further enforces certain obligations to report and disclose short positions. It is concluded that banning short selling is not an effective tool to contain extreme price volatility. The difference-in-differences regression and repeated measures GLM were used to test whether short selling bans were successful in containing volatility of those Spanish and Italian stocks that were subject to two back-to-back prohibitions during the years 2011-2013. The results are consistent with the majority of previous research, suggesting that the

Near-extreme system condition and near-extreme remaining useful time for a group of products

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Hai-Kun; Li, Yan-Feng; Huang, Hong-Zhong; Jin, Tongdan

2017-01-01

When a group of identical products is operating in field, the aggregation of failures is a catastrophe to engineers and customers who strive to develop reliable and safe products. In order to avoid a swarm of failures in a short time, it is essential to measure the degree of dispersion from different failure times in a group of products to the first failure time. This phenomenon is relevant to the crowding of system conditions near the worst one among a group of products. The group size in this paper represents a finite number of products, instead of infinite number or a single product. We evaluate the reliability of the product fleet from two aspects. First, we define near-extreme system condition and near-extreme failure time for offline solutions, which means no online observations. Second, we apply them to a continuous degradation system that breaks down when it reaches a soft failure threshold. By using particle filtering in the framework of prognostics and health management for a group of products, we aim to estimate near-extreme system condition and further predict the remaining useful life (RUL) using online solutions. Numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. - Highlights: • The aggregation of failures is measured for a group of identical products. • The crowding of failures is quantitated by the near-extreme evaluations. • Near-extreme system condition are given for offline solutions. • Near-extreme remaining useful time are provided for online solutions.

Extreme hypoxia tolerance of naked mole-rat brain.

Science.gov (United States)

Larson, John; Park, Thomas J

2009-12-09

Mammalian brains have extremely high levels of aerobic metabolism and typically suffer irreversible damage after brief periods of oxygen deprivation such as occur during stroke or cardiac arrest. Here we report that brain tissue from naked mole-rats, rodents that live in a chronically low-oxygen environment, is remarkably resistant to hypoxia: naked mole-rat neurons maintain synaptic transmission much longer than mouse neurons and can recover from periods of anoxia exceeding 30 min. We suggest that brain tolerance to hypoxia may result from slowed or arrested brain development in these extremely long-lived animals.

Censored rainfall modelling for estimation of fine-scale extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Cross, David; Onof, Christian; Winter, Hugo; Bernardara, Pietro

2018-01-01

Reliable estimation of rainfall extremes is essential for drainage system design, flood mitigation, and risk quantification. However, traditional techniques lack physical realism and extrapolation can be highly uncertain. In this study, we improve the physical basis for short-duration extreme rainfall estimation by simulating the heavy portion of the rainfall record mechanistically using the Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulse (BLRP) model. Mechanistic rainfall models have had a tendency to underestimate rainfall extremes at fine temporal scales. Despite this, the simple process representation of rectangular pulse models is appealing in the context of extreme rainfall estimation because it emulates the known phenomenology of rainfall generation. A censored approach to Bartlett-Lewis model calibration is proposed and performed for single-site rainfall from two gauges in the UK and Germany. Extreme rainfall estimation is performed for each gauge at the 5, 15, and 60 min resolutions, and considerations for censor selection discussed.

The Long and the Short of It

Science.gov (United States)

2006-01-01

Gamma-Ray bursts, the extreme explosions that mark the birth of black holes, come in two flavors, long bursts lasting a few seconds or more, and short bursts lasting for less than a second. The mechanisms giving rise to these two types of bursts were, for a long time, unknown to astronomers. But a series of breakthroughs starting with BeppoSAX, HETE, and Swift gave astronomers some clues and confidence about the nature of long and short bursts. Long bursts mark the collapse of a young, extremely massive star into a black hole; short bursts mark the formation of a black hole by a merger of neutron stars (or perhaps a neutron star with a black hole to form a larger black hole). But a new observation has clouded this clear dichotomy. The picture above is an X-ray image of a gamma-ray burst, GRB 060614, taken by Swift's X-ray Telescope. This burst lasted more than 100 seconds, clearly showing that it's a long burst. But follow-up observations of the burst did not show the tell-tale signatures of a supernova explosion which should be produced by the collapse of a large star. Furthermore this burst occurred in a galaxy which has very few extremely massive stars. Does this hybrid burst represent an entirely new mechanism behind these titanic explosions? The hunt is on.

Compound summer temperature and precipitation extremes over central Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Sedlmeier, Katrin; Feldmann, H.; Schädler, G.

2018-02-01

Reliable knowledge of the near-future climate change signal of extremes is important for adaptation and mitigation strategies. Especially compound extremes, like heat and drought occurring simultaneously, may have a greater impact on society than their univariate counterparts and have recently become an active field of study. In this paper, we use a 12-member ensemble of high-resolution (7 km) regional climate simulations with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM over central Europe to analyze the climate change signal and its uncertainty for compound heat and drought extremes in summer by two different measures: one describing absolute (i.e., number of exceedances of absolute thresholds like hot days), the other relative (i.e., number of exceedances of time series intrinsic thresholds) compound extreme events. Changes are assessed between a reference period (1971-2000) and a projection period (2021-2050). Our findings show an increase in the number of absolute compound events for the whole investigation area. The change signal of relative extremes is more region-dependent, but there is a strong signal change in the southern and eastern parts of Germany and the neighboring countries. Especially the Czech Republic shows strong change in absolute and relative extreme events.

DISCOVERY OF PULSATIONS, INCLUDING POSSIBLE PRESSURE MODES, IN TWO NEW EXTREMELY LOW MASS, He-CORE WHITE DWARFS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hermes, J. J.; Montgomery, M. H.; Winget, D. E.; Bell, Keaton J.; Harrold, Samuel T. [Department of Astronomy, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712 (United States); Brown, Warren R.; Kenyon, Scott J. [Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Gianninas, A.; Kilic, Mukremin, E-mail: jjhermes@astro.as.utexas.edu [Homer L. Dodge Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Oklahoma, 440 W. Brooks Street, Norman, OK 73019 (United States)

2013-03-10

We report the discovery of the second and third pulsating extremely low mass (ELM) white dwarfs (WDs), SDSS J111215.82+111745.0 (hereafter J1112) and SDSS J151826.68+065813.2 (hereafter J1518). Both have masses < 0.25 M{sub Sun} and effective temperatures below 10, 000 K, establishing these putatively He-core WDs as a cooler class of pulsating hydrogen-atmosphere WDs (DAVs, or ZZ Ceti stars). The short-period pulsations evidenced in the light curve of J1112 may also represent the first observation of acoustic (p-mode) pulsations in any WD, which provide an exciting opportunity to probe this WD in a complimentary way compared to the long-period g-modes that are also present. J1112 is a T{sub eff} =9590 {+-} 140 K and log g =6.36 {+-} 0.06 WD. The star displays sinusoidal variability at five distinct periodicities between 1792 and 2855 s. In this star, we also see short-period variability, strongest at 134.3 s, well short of the expected g-modes for such a low-mass WD. The other new pulsating WD, J1518, is a T{sub eff} =9900 {+-} 140 K and log g =6.80 {+-} 0.05 WD. The light curve of J1518 is highly non-sinusoidal, with at least seven significant periods between 1335 and 3848 s. Consistent with the expectation that ELM WDs must be formed in binaries, these two new pulsating He-core WDs, in addition to the prototype SDSS J184037.78+642312.3, have close companions. However, the observed variability is inconsistent with tidally induced pulsations and is so far best explained by the same hydrogen partial-ionization driving mechanism at work in classic C/O-core ZZ Ceti stars.

Periodic variations of cosmic ray intensity with period of -37 minute observed on April 25th, 1984

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sakai, Takasuke; Kato, Masahito; Takei, Ryoji; Tamai, Eiji

1985-01-01

Existence of cosmic ray variation with period ranging from a few hours to seconds during geomagnetically quiet and perturb period at different altitude with different detector, was reported previously. As short period variation is thought to be transient with small amplitude fluctuation, consequently high counting rate of cosmic ray and appropriate method for finding short periodicity, is required. Further, there is similar phenomenon in which short variation, followed by storm sudden commencement (SSC) and/or Forbush decrease (FD) occurs. In 1979, Kato et al. used 3 minutes data at Mt. Norikura and obtained -6 x 10 5 count/min, and tried to find out short periodicity of cosmic ray around SSC, but no clear conclusion was obtained. T. Sakai, et al., used plastic scintillation counter of Akeno observatory, following their preceding work. The counter has an area about 154 m 2 . High counting rate of -2 x 10 6 counts/min. was observed at Akeno which revealed the existence of -37 minute periodical oscillation with an amplitude of 0.1 % in p-p during the time period of 1300 - 1900 UT on April 25th 1984, one day before FD. Observed periodical oscillation of cosmic ray counting rate may be the result of the changes in magnetic field. But, it must be noted that there remains possibility of oscillation of cosmic ray intensity in the interplanetary space during the period, independent of geomagnetic field. (author)

Short periodic oscillations of the dwarf nova VW Hydri

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haefner, R.; Schoembs, R.

1977-01-01

A coherent oscillation of approximately 88 s period and 0.m005 amplitude was detected during the decline stage at the end of the long eruption of VW Hyi in December 1975. The period changed erratically between 86 and 90 s during eight nights. There are indications that the amplitude depends on the phase of the orbital revolution. The new period favours models in which such oscillations are caused by the orbital motion of inhomogeneities in the disc. (orig.) [de

Identification of Climate Change with Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) Distribution Approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rahayu, Anita

2013-01-01

Some events are difficult to avoid and gives considerable influence to humans and the environment is extreme weather and climate change. Many of the problems that require knowledge about the behavior of extreme values and one of the methods used are the Extreme Value Theory (EVT). EVT used to draw up reliable systems in a variety of conditions, so as to minimize the risk of a major disaster. There are two methods for identifying extreme value, Block Maxima with Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution approach and Peaks over Threshold (POT) with Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) approach. This research in Indramayu with January 1961-December 2003 period, the method used is Block Maxima with GEV distribution approach. The result showed that there is no climate change in Indramayu with January 1961-December 2003 period.

Modelling of spatio-temporal precipitation relevant for urban hydrology with focus on scales, extremes and climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørup, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen

-correlation lengths for sub-daily extreme precipitation besides having too low intensities. Especially the wrong spatial correlation structure is disturbing from an urban hydrological point of view as short-term extremes will cover too much ground if derived directly from bias corrected regional climate model output...... of precipitation are compared and used to rank climate models with respect to performance metrics. The four different observational data sets themselves are compared at daily temporal scale with respect to climate indices for mean and extreme precipitation. Data density seems to be a crucial parameter for good...... happening in summer and most of the daily extremes in fall. This behaviour is in good accordance with reality where short term extremes originate in convective precipitation cells that occur when it is very warm and longer term extremes originate in frontal systems that dominate the fall and winter seasons...

Mortality impact of extreme winter temperatures

Science.gov (United States)

Díaz, Julio; García, Ricardo; López, César; Linares, Cristina; Tobías, Aurelio; Prieto, Luis

2005-01-01

During the last few years great attention has been paid to the evaluation of the impact of extreme temperatures on human health. This paper examines the effect of extreme winter temperature on mortality in Madrid for people older than 65, using ARIMA and GAM models. Data correspond to 1,815 winter days over the period 1986 1997, during which time a total of 133,000 deaths occurred. The daily maximum temperature (Tmax) was shown to be the best thermal indicator of the impact of climate on mortality. When total mortality was considered, the maximum impact occured 7 8 days after a temperature extreme; for circulatory diseases the lag was between 7 and 14 days. When respiratory causes were considered, two mortality peaks were evident at 4 5 and 11 days. When the impact of winter extreme temperatures was compared with that associated with summer extremes, it was found to occur over a longer term, and appeared to be more indirect.

Extreme Sea Conditions in Shallow Water: Estimation based on in-situ measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Le Crom, Izan; Saulnier, Jean-Baptiste

2013-04-01

The design of marine renewable energy devices and components is based, among others, on the assessment of the environmental extreme conditions (winds, currents, waves, and water level) that must be combined together in order to evaluate the maximal loads on a floating/fixed structure, and on the anchoring system over a determined return period. Measuring devices are generally deployed at sea over relatively short durations (a few months to a few years), typically when describing water free surface elevation, and extrapolation methods based on hindcast data (and therefore on wave simulation models) have to be used. How to combine, in a realistic way, the action of the different loads (winds and waves for instance) and which correlation of return periods should be used are highly topical issues. However, the assessment of the extreme condition itself remains a not-fully-solved, crucial, and sensitive task. Above all in shallow water, extreme wave height, Hmax, is the most significant contribution in the dimensioning process of EMR devices. As a case study, existing methodologies for deep water have been applied to SEMREV, the French marine energy test site. The interest of this study, especially at this location, goes beyond the simple application to SEMREV's WEC and floating wind turbines deployment as it could also be extended to the Banc de Guérande offshore wind farm that are planned close by. More generally to pipes and communication cables as it is a redundant problematic. The paper will first present the existing measurements (wave and wind on site), the prediction chain that has been developed via wave models, the extrapolation methods applied to hindcast data, and will try to formulate recommendations for improving this assessment in shallow water.

Effects of feeding strategy during a short finishing period on performance, carcass and meat quality in previously-grazed young bulls.

Science.gov (United States)

Cerdeño, A; Vieira, C; Serrano, E; Lavín, P; Mantecón, A R

2006-04-01

Twenty-one Brown Swiss×Limousin young bulls reared on pasture were housed for a short finishing period (60 days). CA group (concentrate-ad libitum group) received concentrate and straw ad libitum for the whole finishing period. CR group (concentrate-restricted group) received 4kg of concentrate/animal per day and ad libitum alfalfa hay throughout the 60days. CRA group (concentrate-restricted/ad libitum group) received the same diet as CR group for the first 30days and the same diet as CA group for the last 30days. CA and CRA groups presented higher fatness values. Myoglobin concentration in muscle was highest in CA group (P0.05). It is concluded that, in this type of young animal, 4kg concentrate plus ad libitum alfalfa hay for a 60-day finishing period, despite lower fatness, provides carcasses and meat with acceptable quality characteristics, similar to those obtained from ad libitum fed animals for the same period.

Methodology for featuring and assessing extreme climatic events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Malleron, N.; Bernardara, P.; Benoit, M.; Parey, S.; Perret, C.

2013-01-01

The setting up of a nuclear power plant on a particular site requires the assessment of risks linked to extreme natural events like flooding or earthquakes. As a consequence of the Fukushima accident EDF proposes to take into account even rarer events in order to improve the robustness of the facility all over its operating life. This article presents the methodology used by EDF to analyse a set of data in a statistical way in order to extract extreme values. This analysis is based on the theory of extreme values and is applied to the extreme values of the flow rate in the case of a river overflowing. This methodology is made of 6 steps: 1) selection of the event, of its featuring parameter and of its probability, for instance the question is what is the flow rate of a flooding that has a probability of 10 -3 to happen, 2) to collect data over a long period of time (or to recover data from past periods), 3) to extract extreme values from the data, 4) to find an adequate statistical law that fits the spreading of the extreme values, 5) the selected statistical law must be validated through visual or statistical tests, and 6) the computation of the flow rate of the event itself. (A.C.)

Raman analysis of phonon modes in a short period AlN/GaN superlattice

Science.gov (United States)

Sarkar, Ketaki; Datta, Debopam; Gosztola, David J.; Shi, Fengyuan; Nicholls, Alan; Stroscio, Michael A.; Dutta, Mitra

2018-03-01

AlN/GaN-based optoelectronic devices have been the subject of intense research underlying the commercialization of efficient devices. Areas of considerable interest are the study of their lattice dynamics, phonon transport, and electron-phonon interactions specific to the interface of these heterostructures which results in additional optical phonon modes known as interface phonon modes. In this study, the framework of the dielectric continuum model (DCM) has been used to compare and analyze the optical phonon modes obtained from experimental Raman scattering measurements on AlN/GaN short-period superlattices. We have observed the localized E2(high), A1(LO) and the E1(TO) modes in superlattice measurements at frequencies shifted from their bulk values. To the best of our knowledge, the nanostructures used in these studies are among the smallest yielding useful Raman signatures for the interface modes. In addition, we have also identified an additional spread of interface phonon modes in the TO range resulting from the superlattice periodicity. The Raman signature contribution from the underlying AlxGa1-xN ternary has also been observed and analyzed. A temperature calibration was done based on Stokes/anti-Stokes ratio of A1(LO) using Raman spectroscopy in a broad operating temperature range. Good agreement between the experimental results and theoretically calculated calibration plot predicted using Bose-Einstein statistics was obtained.

High-energy, short-pulse, carbon-dioxide lasers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fenstermacher, C.A.

1979-01-01

Lasers for fusion application represent a special class of short-pulse generators; not only must they generate extremely short temporal pulses of high quality, but they must do this at ultra-high powers and satisfy other stringent requirements by this application. This paper presents the status of the research and development of carbon-dioxide laser systems at the Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory, vis-a-vis the fusion requirements

Influence of temperature of the short-period heat treatment on mechanical properties of the NiTi alloy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jaroslav Čapek

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The equiatomic alloy of nickel and titanium, known as nitinol, possesses unique properties such as superelasticity, pseudoplasticity, shape memory, while maintaining good corrosion resistance and sufficient biocompatibility. Therefore it is used for production of various devices including surgery implants. Heat treatment of nickel-rich NiTi alloys can result in precipitation of nickel-rich phases, which strongly influence tensile and fatigue behaviour of the material.In this work we have studied influence of short-period heat treatment on tensile behaviour and fatigue life of the NiTi (50.9 at. % Ni wire intended for fabrication of surgery stents.

Attenuation of short-period P, PcP, ScP, and pP waves in the earth's mantle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bock, G.; Clements, J.R.

1982-01-01

The parameter t* (ratio of body wave travel time to the average quality factor Q) was estimated under various assumptions of the nature of the earthquake sources for short-period P, PcP, and ScP phases originating from earthquakes in the Fiji-Tonga region and recorded at the Warramunga Seismic Array at Tennant Creek (Northern Territory, Australia). Spectral ratios were calculated for the amplitudes of PcP to P and of pP to P. The data reveal a laterally varying Q structure in the Fiji-Tonga region. The high-Q lithosphere descending beneath the Tonga Island arc is overlain above 350 km depth by a wedgelike zone of high attenuation with an average Q/sub α/ between 120 and 200 at short periods. The upper mantle farther to the west of the Tonga island arc is less attenuating, with Q/sub α/, between 370 and 560. Q/sub α/ is about 500 in the upper mantle on the oceanic side of the subduction zone. The t* estimates of this study are much smaller than estimates from the free oscillation model SL8. This can be partly explained by regional variations of Q in the upper mantle. If no lateral Q variations occur in the lower mantle, a frequency-dependent Q can make the PcP and ScP observations consistent with model SL8. Adopting the absorption band model to describe the frequency dependence of Q, the parameter tau 2 , the cut-off period of the high-frequency end of the absorption band, was determined. For different source models with finite corner frequencies, the average tau 2 for the mantle is between 0.01 and 0.10 s (corresponding to frequencies between 16 and 1.6 Hz) as derived from the PcP data, and between 0.06 and 0.12 s (2.7 and 1.3 Hz), as derived from the ScP data

Results of a prospective randomized controlled trial of early ambulation for patients with lower extremity autografts.

Science.gov (United States)

Lorello, David John; Peck, Michael; Albrecht, Marlene; Richey, Karen J; Pressman, Melissa A

2014-01-01

It is common practice to keep those patients with lower extremity autografts immobile until post-operative day (POD) 5. There is however inherent risks associated with even short periods of immobility. As of now there are no randomized controlled trials looking at early ambulation of patients with lower extremity autografts in the burn community.The objective of this study was to show that patients who begin ambulation within 24 hours of lower extremity autografting will have no increased risk of graft failure than those patients who remain immobile until POD 5. Thirty-one subjects who received autografts to the lower extremity were randomized after surgery into either the early ambulation group (EAG;17 subjects) or the standard treatment group (STG;14 subjects). Those subjects randomized to the EAG began ambulating with physical therapy on POD 1. Subjects in the STG maintained bed rest until POD 5. There was no difference in the number of patients with graft loss in either the EAG or STG on POD 5, and during any of the follow-up visits. No subjects required regrafting. There was a significant difference in the mean minutes of ambulation, with the EAG ambulating longer than the STG (EAG 23.4 minutes [SD 12.03], STG 14.1 [SD 9.00], P=.0235) on POD 5. Burn patients with lower extremity autografts can safely ambulate on POD 1 without fear of graft failure compared with those patients that remain on bed rest for 5 days.

Anterior corpectomy via the mini-open, extreme lateral, transpsoas approach combined with short-segment posterior fixation for single-level traumatic lumbar burst fractures: analysis of health-related quality of life outcomes and patient satisfaction.

Science.gov (United States)

Theologis, Alexander A; Tabaraee, Ehsan; Toogood, Paul; Kennedy, Abbey; Birk, Harjus; McClellan, R Trigg; Pekmezci, Murat

2016-01-01

The authors present clinical outcome data and satisfaction of patients who underwent minimally invasive vertebral body corpectomy and cage placement via a mini-open, extreme lateral, transpsoas approach and posterior short-segment instrumentation for lumbar burst fractures. Patients with unstable lumbar burst fractures who underwent corpectomy and anterior column reconstruction via a mini-open, extreme lateral, transpsoas approach with short-segment posterior fixation were reviewed retrospectively. Demographic information, operative parameters, perioperative radiographic measurements, and complications were analyzed. Patient-reported outcome instruments (Oswestry Disability Index [ODI], 12-Item Short Form Health Survey [SF-12]) and an anterior scar-specific patient satisfaction questionnaire were recorded at the latest follow-up. Twelve patients (7 men, 5 women, average age 42 years, range 22-68 years) met the inclusion criteria. Lumbar corpectomies with anterior column support were performed (L-1, n = 8; L-2, n = 2; L-3, n = 2) and supplemented with short-segment posterior instrumentation (4 open, 8 percutaneous). Four patients had preoperative neurological deficits, all of which improved after surgery. No new neurological complications were noted. The anterior incision on average was 6.4 cm (range 5-8 cm) in length, caused mild pain and disability, and was aesthetically acceptable to the large majority of patients. Three patients required chest tube placement for pleural violation, and 1 patient required reoperation for cage subsidence/hardware failure. Average clinical follow-up was 38 months (range 16-68 months), and average radiographic follow-up was 37 months (range 6-68 months). Preoperative lumbar lordosis and focal lordosis were significantly improved/maintained after surgery. Patients were satisfied with their outcomes, had minimal/moderate disability (average ODI score 20, range 0-52), and had good physical (SF-12 physical component score 41.7% ± 10

Typologies of extreme longevity myths.

Science.gov (United States)

Young, Robert D; Desjardins, Bertrand; McLaughlin, Kirsten; Poulain, Michel; Perls, Thomas T

2010-01-01

Purpose. Political, national, religious, and other motivations have led the media and even scientists to errantly accept extreme longevity claims prima facie. We describe various causes of false claims of extraordinary longevity. Design and Methods. American Social Security Death Index files for the period 1980-2009 were queried for individuals with birth and death dates yielding ages 110+ years of age. Frequency was compared to a list of age-validated supercentenarians maintained by the Gerontology Research Group who died during the same time period. Age claims of 110+ years and the age validation experiences of the authors facilitated a list of typologies of false age claims. Results. Invalid age claim rates increase with age from 65% at age 110-111 to 98% by age 115 to 100% for 120+ years. Eleven typologies of false claims were: Religious Authority Myth, Village Elder Myth, Fountain of Youth Myth (substance), Shangri-La Myth (geographic), Nationalist Pride, Spiritual Practice, Familial Longevity, Individual and/or Family Notoriety, Military Service, Administrative Entry Error, and Pension-Social Entitlement Fraud. Conclusions. Understanding various causes of false extreme age claims is important for placing current, past, and future extreme longevity claims in context and for providing a necessary level of skepticism.

Typologies of Extreme Longevity Myths

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert D. Young

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose. Political, national, religious, and other motivations have led the media and even scientists to errantly accept extreme longevity claims prima facie. We describe various causes of false claims of extraordinary longevity. Design and Methods. American Social Security Death Index files for the period 1980–2009 were queried for individuals with birth and death dates yielding ages 110+ years of age. Frequency was compared to a list of age-validated supercentenarians maintained by the Gerontology Research Group who died during the same time period. Age claims of 110+ years and the age validation experiences of the authors facilitated a list of typologies of false age claims. Results. Invalid age claim rates increase with age from 65% at age 110-111 to 98% by age 115 to 100% for 120+ years. Eleven typologies of false claims were: Religious Authority Myth, Village Elder Myth, Fountain of Youth Myth (substance, Shangri-La Myth (geographic, Nationalist Pride, Spiritual Practice, Familial Longevity, Individual and/or Family Notoriety, Military Service, Administrative Entry Error, and Pension-Social Entitlement Fraud. Conclusions. Understanding various causes of false extreme age claims is important for placing current, past, and future extreme longevity claims in context and for providing a necessary level of skepticism.

Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017

OpenAIRE

Van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Van Der Wiel, Karin; Sebastian, A.G.; Singh, Roop; Arrighi, Julie; Otto, Friederike; Haustein, Karsten; Li, Sihan; Vecchi, Gabriel; Cullen, Heidi

2017-01-01

During August 25-30, 2017, Hurricane Harvey stalled over Texas and caused extreme precipitation, particularly over Houston and the surrounding area on August 26-28. This resulted in extensive flooding with over 80 fatalities and large economic costs. It was an extremely rare event: the return period of the highest observed three-day precipitation amount, 1043.4 mm 3dy-1 at Baytown, is more than 9000 years (97.5% one-sided confidence interval) and return periods exceeded 1000 yr (750 mm 3dy-1)...

Temperature extremes: Effect on plant growth and development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jerry L. Hatfield

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Temperature is a primary factor affecting the rate of plant development. Warmer temperatures expected with climate change and the potential for more extreme temperature events will impact plant productivity. Pollination is one of the most sensitive phenological stages to temperature extremes across all species and during this developmental stage temperature extremes would greatly affect production. Few adaptation strategies are available to cope with temperature extremes at this developmental stage other than to select for plants which shed pollen during the cooler periods of the day or are indeterminate so flowering occurs over a longer period of the growing season. In controlled environment studies, warm temperatures increased the rate of phenological development; however, there was no effect on leaf area or vegetative biomass compared to normal temperatures. The major impact of warmer temperatures was during the reproductive stage of development and in all cases grain yield in maize was significantly reduced by as much as 80−90% from a normal temperature regime. Temperature effects are increased by water deficits and excess soil water demonstrating that understanding the interaction of temperature and water will be needed to develop more effective adaptation strategies to offset the impacts of greater temperature extreme events associated with a changing climate.

Physiological Responses of Bambara Groundnut (Vigna subterranea L. Verdc) to Short Periods of Water Stress During Different Developmental Stages

OpenAIRE

R. Vurayai; V. Emongor and B. Moseki

2011-01-01

The study was conducted to evaluate the responses of bambara groundnut (Vigna subterranea L. Verdc) to short periods of water stress imposed at different growth stages, and the recuperative ability of the species from drought stress. A major problem associated with Bambara groundnut production is its very low yields due to intra-seasonal and inter-seasonal variability in rainfall in semi-arid regions. The response pattern of physiological processes to water stress imposed at different growth ...

Nonlinear wave-mixing processes in the extreme ultraviolet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Misoguti, L.; Christov, I. P.; Backus, S.; Murnane, M. M.; Kapteyn, H. C.

2005-01-01

We present data from two-color high-order harmonic generation in a hollow waveguide, that suggest the presence of a nonlinear-optical frequency conversion process driven by extreme ultraviolet light. By combining the fundamental and second harmonic of an 800 nm laser in a hollow-core fiber, with varying relative polarizations, and by observing the pressure and power scaling of the various harmonic orders, we show that the data are consistent with a picture where we drive the process of high-harmonic generation, which in turn drives four-wave frequency mixing processes in the extreme EUV. This work promises a method for extending nonlinear optics into the extreme ultraviolet region of the spectrum using an approach that has not previously been considered, and has compelling implications for generating tunable light at short wavelengths

Estimation of the impact of climate change-induced extreme precipitation events on floods

Science.gov (United States)

Hlavčová, Kamila; Lapin, Milan; Valent, Peter; Szolgay, Ján; Kohnová, Silvia; Rončák, Peter

2015-09-01

In order to estimate possible changes in the flood regime in the mountainous regions of Slovakia, a simple physically-based concept for climate change-induced changes in extreme 5-day precipitation totals is proposed in the paper. It utilizes regionally downscaled scenarios of the long-term monthly means of the air temperature, specific air humidity and precipitation projected for Central Slovakia by two regional (RCM) and two global circulation models (GCM). A simplified physically-based model for the calculation of short-term precipitation totals over the course of changing air temperatures, which is used to drive a conceptual rainfall-runoff model, was proposed. In the paper a case study of this approach in the upper Hron river basin in Central Slovakia is presented. From the 1981-2010 period, 20 events of the basin's most extreme average of 5-day precipitation totals were selected. Only events with continual precipitation during 5 days were considered. These 5-day precipitation totals were modified according to the RCM and GCM-based scenarios for the future time horizons of 2025, 2050 and 2075. For modelling runoff under changed 5-day precipitation totals, a conceptual rainfall-runoff model developed at the Slovak University of Technology was used. Changes in extreme mean daily discharges due to climate change were compared with the original flood events and discussed.

Trends in utilization: has extremity MR imaging replaced diagnostic arthroscopy?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Glynn, Nicole; Morrison, William B.; Parker, Laurence; Schweitzer, Mark E.; Carrino, John A.

2004-01-01

To examine the relative change in utilization of magnetic resonance (MR) imaging of the extremities versus diagnostic and therapeutic arthroscopy. Using the 1993, 1996, and 1999 nationwide Medicare Part B databases, utilization rates (per 100,000) were determined for upper and lower extremity MR imaging, diagnostic arthroscopy and therapeutic arthroscopy using CPT-4 codes. Utilization of extremity MR imaging was compared with that of diagnostic and therapeutic arthroscopy in 10 geographic regions of the United States and tracked over time. Combined lower and upper extremity MR imaging utilization per 100,000 increased from 393 to 1,056 in 1999 (+168.7%). Utilization of diagnostic arthroscopy of the extremities decreased from 18 in 1993 to 8 in 1999 (-55.6%); therapeutic arthroscopy rates increased from 461 in 1993 to 636 in 1999 (+40.0%). Specifically, from 1993 to 1999, utilization of lower extremity MR imaging increased from 270 to 661 (+144.8%). Utilization of diagnostic arthroscopy of the knee over the same time period decreased from 11 to 5 (-54.5%); therapeutic arthroscopy increased from 394 to 501 (+27.2%). Similarly, utilization rates for upper extremity MR imaging increased from 123 to 395 (+221.1%). Utilization of diagnostic arthroscopy of the shoulder over the same time period decreased from 7 to 2 (-71.4%); therapeutic arthroscopy increased from 44 to 104 (+136.4%). No specific geographic trends were ascertained. The utilization of MR imaging of the extremities has markedly increased from 1993 to 1999. During the same time period the utilization of diagnostic arthroscopy has decreased and that of therapeutic arthroscopy has increased. These findings support the hypothesis that there is increased reliance of clinical practitioners on the diagnostic information provided by MR imaging in preoperative clinical decision-making. (orig.)

Spatial dependence of extreme rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Radi, Noor Fadhilah Ahmad; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Satari, Siti Zanariah; Azman, Muhammad Az-zuhri

2017-05-01

This study aims to model the spatial extreme daily rainfall process using the max-stable model. The max-stable model is used to capture the dependence structure of spatial properties of extreme rainfall. Three models from max-stable are considered namely Smith, Schlather and Brown-Resnick models. The methods are applied on 12 selected rainfall stations in Kelantan, Malaysia. Most of the extreme rainfall data occur during wet season from October to December of 1971 to 2012. This period is chosen to assure the available data is enough to satisfy the assumption of stationarity. The dependence parameters including the range and smoothness, are estimated using composite likelihood approach. Then, the bootstrap approach is applied to generate synthetic extreme rainfall data for all models using the estimated dependence parameters. The goodness of fit between the observed extreme rainfall and the synthetic data is assessed using the composite likelihood information criterion (CLIC). Results show that Schlather model is the best followed by Brown-Resnick and Smith models based on the smallest CLIC's value. Thus, the max-stable model is suitable to be used to model extreme rainfall in Kelantan. The study on spatial dependence in extreme rainfall modelling is important to reduce the uncertainties of the point estimates for the tail index. If the spatial dependency is estimated individually, the uncertainties will be large. Furthermore, in the case of joint return level is of interest, taking into accounts the spatial dependence properties will improve the estimation process.

Marketing strategies and tactics in a period of recession

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

George J. Avlonitis

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Recession is an extremely difficult period for most companies. Especially when a recession has universal dimensions, many companies find themselves unprepared to face great challenges. While marketing in good times has a long-term focus, a broad scope, it is benefits- and opportunities-driven and proactive, in bad times it has a short-term focus, limited and narrow scope, it is cost-and sales-driven and reactive. Panic is not the right reaction. Such difficult times should be overcome through methodical and well planned actions. After all, research has shown that those companies that take a proactive stance and treat the recession as an opportunity are likely to come out of the crisis stronger than before. Specific marketing activities have been proved to be beneficial to companies during a downturn. Below we analyze, ten marketing survival strategies and tactics.

Climate change, climatic variation and extreme biological responses.

Science.gov (United States)

Palmer, Georgina; Platts, Philip J; Brereton, Tom; Chapman, Jason W; Dytham, Calvin; Fox, Richard; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Roy, David B; Hill, Jane K; Thomas, Chris D

2017-06-19

Extreme climatic events could be major drivers of biodiversity change, but it is unclear whether extreme biological changes are (i) individualistic (species- or group-specific), (ii) commonly associated with unusual climatic events and/or (iii) important determinants of long-term population trends. Using population time series for 238 widespread species (207 Lepidoptera and 31 birds) in England since 1968, we found that population 'crashes' (outliers in terms of species' year-to-year population changes) were 46% more frequent than population 'explosions'. (i) Every year, at least three species experienced extreme changes in population size, and in 41 of the 44 years considered, some species experienced population crashes while others simultaneously experienced population explosions. This suggests that, even within the same broad taxonomic groups, species are exhibiting individualistic dynamics, most probably driven by their responses to different, short-term events associated with climatic variability. (ii) Six out of 44 years showed a significant excess of species experiencing extreme population changes (5 years for Lepidoptera, 1 for birds). These 'consensus years' were associated with climatically extreme years, consistent with a link between extreme population responses and climatic variability, although not all climatically extreme years generated excess numbers of extreme population responses. (iii) Links between extreme population changes and long-term population trends were absent in Lepidoptera and modest (but significant) in birds. We conclude that extreme biological responses are individualistic, in the sense that the extreme population changes of most species are taking place in different years, and that long-term trends of widespread species have not, to date, been dominated by these extreme changes.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'. © 2017 The Authors.

Ultra-short-period W/B₄C multilayers for x-ray optics-microstructure limits on reflectivity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Walton, Christopher Charles [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States). Dept. of Materials Science and Mineral Engineering

1997-12-01

Multilayer thin films are used as Bragg reflectors for soft x-rays in the energy range 50eV < E < 1000eV in many x-ray optics applications such as x-ray microscopes and telescopes, reducing optics for extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography, and x-ray polarizers and phase retarders. Applications often depend critically on reflectivity, which has not been systematically characterized for multilayer periods below 20Å. For this study, W/B₄C multilayers were fabricated by magnetron sputtering on Si(111), with periods from 48Å to as little as 4.7Å. The x-ray reflectivity measured at λ = 1.54Å and at 45° incidence (289 eV < E < 860 eV) was found to decrease sharply for multilayer periods less than 15-20Å. Examination by high-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM) showed an expansion of the thickness of the W-rich layers of 30-40% from the nominal values, consistent with intermixture of the two materials during sputter growth, and discontinuous W-rich layers for multilayer periods below about 15Å. The experimental data for the specular reflectivity in the hard and soft x-ray regimes and the diffuse scattering fit well to a model of multilayer roughness. The model is expressed as a power-law dependence of roughness on spatial frequency. Analysis of small-angle scattering in transmission from multilayers grown on freestanding Si₃N₄ membranes confirms the onset of discontinuity at periods between 14Å and 22Å. Spectroscopy studies by x-ray absorption (NEXAFS) and electron energy loss (EELS) at the boron K-edge (188eV) are consistent with changes in the average boron bonding environment, as the multilayer period decreases and the W-rich layers are increasingly thin and dispersed. A discrete W-rich phase is present for periods at least as small as 6.3Å.

Simulated Extreme Prepitation Indices over Northeast Brasil in Current Climate and Future Scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5

Science.gov (United States)

Wender Santiago Marinho, Marcos; Araújo Costa, Alexandre; Cassain Sales, Domingo; Oliveira Guimarães, Sullyandro; Mariano da Silva, Emerson; das Chagas Vasconcelos Júnior, Francisco

2013-04-01

In this study, we analyzed extreme precipitation indices, for present and future modeled climates over Northeast of Brazil (NEB), from CORDEX simulations over the domain of Tropical Americas. The period for the model validation was from 1989-2007, using data from the European Center (ECWMF) Reanalysis, ERA-INTERIM, as input to drive the regional model (RAMS 6.0). Reanalysis data were assimilated via both lateral boundaries and the entire domain (a much weaker "central nudging"). Six indices of extreme precipitation were calculated over NEB: the average number of days above 10, 20 and 30 mm in one year (R10, R20, R30), the number of consecutive dry days (CDD), the number of consecutive wet days (CWD) and the maximum rainfall in five consecutive days (RX5). Those indices were compared against two independent databases: MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications) and TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission). After validation, climate simulations were performed for the present climate (1985-2005) and short-term (2015-2035), mid-term (2045-2065) and long-term (2079 to 2099) future climates for two scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, nesting RAMS into HadGEM2-ES global model (a participant of CMIP5). Along with the indices, we also calculated Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) to study the behavior of daily precipitation in the present and by the end of the 21st century (2079 to 2099) to assess possible changes under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. The regional model is capable of representing relatively well the extreme precipitation indices for current climate, but there is some difficulties in performing a proper validation since the observed databases disagree significantly. Future projections show significant changes in most extreme indices. Rnn generally tend to increase, especially under RCP8.5. More significant changes are projected for the long-term period, under RCP8.5, which shows a pronounced R30 enhancement over northern states. CDD tends

Quasi-periodic luminosity variations in dwarf novae

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Robinson, E.L.; Nather, R.E.

1979-01-01

We have identified quasi-periodic oscillations in the light curves of five dwarf novae--U Gem, SS Cyg, RU Peg, KT Per, and VW Hyi-- and in the light curve of the quasi-periodic X-ray source Sco X-1. The mean periods of the quasi-periodic oscillations range from 32 s in SS Cyg to 147 s in KT Per and 165 s in Sco X-l. Their amplitudes are typically 0.005--0.0l mag. The properties of the quasi-periodic oscillations are represented well by a second-order autoregressive process. Use of this representation shows that the length of time over which the quasi-periodic oscillations maintain coherence is very short, typically 3--5 cycles of the oscillations. Thus the quasi-periodic oscillations can be distinguished from the short-period coherent oscillations in dwarf novae, which are usually interpreted as white dwarf pulsations, because t the periods of the quasi-periodic oscillations are 3--4 times longer and their coherence time is much shorter. The quasi-periodic oscillations occur in dwarf novae only during their eruptions and occur in Sco X-l only when the system is bright. The presence of the oscillations does not depend on the subclass to which a dwarf nova belongs or on the morphology of the individual eruptions. We argue that their short periods, their short coherence times, and their presence in Sco X-l require that the quasi-periodic oscillations be produced by the accretion disk, and not by the stars or by the boundary between the a accretion disk and its central star

Sensitivity of European wheat to extreme weather

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mäkinen, H; Kaseva, J; Trnka, M

2018-01-01

The frequency and intensity of extreme weather is increasing concomitant with changes in the global climate change. Although wheat is the most important food crop in Europe, there is currently no comprehensive empirical information available regarding the sensitivity of European wheat to extreme...... weather. In this study, we assessed the sensitivity of European wheat yields to extreme weather related to phenology (sowing, heading) in cultivar trials across Europe (latitudes 37.21° to 61.34° and longitudes −6.02° to 26.24°) during the period 1991–2014. All the observed agro-climatic extremes (≥31 °C...... wheat cultivars that responded positively (+10%) to drought after sowing, or frost during winter (−15 °C and −20 °C). Positive responses to extremes were often shown by cultivars associated with specific regions, such as good performance under high temperatures by southern-origin cultivars. Consequently...

Sensitivity of Rainfall Extremes Under Warming Climate in Urban India

Science.gov (United States)

Ali, H.; Mishra, V.

2017-12-01

Extreme rainfall events in urban India halted transportation, damaged infrastructure, and affected human lives. Rainfall extremes are projected to increase under the future climate. We evaluated the relationship (scaling) between rainfall extremes at different temporal resolutions (daily, 3-hourly, and 30 minutes), daily dewpoint temperature (DPT) and daily air temperature at 850 hPa (T850) for 23 urban areas in India. Daily rainfall extremes obtained from Global Surface Summary of Day Data (GSOD) showed positive regression slopes for most of the cities with median of 14%/K for the period of 1979-2013 for DPT and T850, which is higher than Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) rate ( 7%). Moreover, sub-daily rainfall extremes are more sensitive to both DPT and T850. For instance, 3-hourly rainfall extremes obtained from Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM 3B42 V7) showed regression slopes more than 16%/K aginst DPT and T850 for the period of 1998-2015. Half-hourly rainfall extremes from the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals (IMERGE) of Global precipitation mission (GPM) also showed higher sensitivity against changes in DPT and T850. The super scaling of rainfall extremes against changes in DPT and T850 can be attributed to convective nature of precipitation in India. Our results show that urban India may witness non-stationary rainfall extremes, which, in turn will affect stromwater designs and frequency and magniture of urban flooding.

Periodic orbits near the particle resonance in galaxies

CERN Document Server

Contopoulos, George

1978-01-01

Near the particle resonance of a spiral galaxy the almost circular periodic orbits that exist inside the resonance (direct) or outside it (retrograde) are replaced by elongated trapped orbits around the maxima of the potential L/sub 4/ and L/sub 5/. These are the long- period trapped periodic orbits. The long-period orbits shrink to the points L/sub 4/, L/sub 5/ for a critical value of the Hamiltonian h. For still larger h, a family of short-period trapped orbits appears, with continuously growing size. The evolution of the periodic orbits with h is followed, theoretically and numerically, from the untrapped orbits to the long-periodic orbits and then to the short-periodic orbits, mainly in the case of a bar. In a tight spiral case an explanation of the asymmetric periodic and banana orbits is given, and an example of short-period orbits not surrounding L/sub 4/ or L/sub 5/ is provided. Another family of periodic orbits reaching corotation is trapped at the inner Lindblad resonance. (5 refs).

Effects of Pre - Season Short - Term Daily Undulating Periodized Training on Muscle Strength and Sprint Performance of Under - 20 Soccer Players

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Charles Ricardo L OPES

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of daily undulating training periodization designed for maximal lower limb muscle strength and sprint performance in under - 20 soccer players. Twenty - four male athletes (age = 19.1 ± 1.2 yr; mass = 71.1 ± 6. 8 kg; height = 178.0 ± 0.1 cm participated in four weeks of a daily undulating periodized (DUP training soccer program. During the pre - and post - training periods the subjects performed a one repetition maximum (1 RM half back squat test and a 15 - meter s print. Significant training - induced changes were observed in sprint times (pre = 2.38 ± 0.01 s; post = 2.31 ± 0.02 s and 1 RM tests (pre = 107.0 ± 2.0 kg; post = 128.0 ± 2.2 kg. These results indicate that a DUP program is efficient in promoting positive neuromuscular adaptations in soccer players, even with a short - term preseason training period.

Features of Physical and Neuro-Psychological Development of Children with Low, Very Low and Extremely Low Birth Weight in Different Age Periods of Life

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. A. Deev

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Analysis of features of physical and neuro-psychological development of children with low, very low and extremely low birth weight in different age periods is carried out according to cohort studies of newborns with different gestational age and birth weight, presented in electronic databases PubMed and Medscape. It is revealed that the overwhelming number of children with low, very low and extremely low birth weight, gain physical and neuro- psychological development impairments, hearing and vision disorders of varying severity, violation of motor function, intelligence and cognitive skills infringement in an older age. In this regard, it is actual not only to develop new neonatal reanimation and intensive care technologies, but also to ensure adequate prevention of preterm birth in the group of women with a high degree of perinatal risk. All this will further allow preventing increase in children with disabling conditions number among premature infants.

Extreme temperature events on Greenland in observations and the MAR regional climate model

Science.gov (United States)

Leeson, Amber A.; Eastoe, Emma; Fettweis, Xavier

2018-03-01

Meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet contributed 1.7-6.12 mm to global sea level between 1993 and 2010 and is expected to contribute 20-110 mm to future sea level rise by 2100. These estimates were produced by regional climate models (RCMs) which are known to be robust at the ice sheet scale but occasionally miss regional- and local-scale climate variability (e.g. Leeson et al., 2017; Medley et al., 2013). To date, the fidelity of these models in the context of short-period variability in time (i.e. intra-seasonal) has not been fully assessed, for example their ability to simulate extreme temperature events. We use an event identification algorithm commonly used in extreme value analysis, together with observations from the Greenland Climate Network (GC-Net), to assess the ability of the MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) RCM to reproduce observed extreme positive-temperature events at 14 sites around Greenland. We find that MAR is able to accurately simulate the frequency and duration of these events but underestimates their magnitude by more than half a degree Celsius/kelvin, although this bias is much smaller than that exhibited by coarse-scale Era-Interim reanalysis data. As a result, melt energy in MAR output is underestimated by between 16 and 41 % depending on global forcing applied. Further work is needed to precisely determine the drivers of extreme temperature events, and why the model underperforms in this area, but our findings suggest that biases are passed into MAR from boundary forcing data. This is important because these forcings are common between RCMs and their range of predictions of past and future ice sheet melting. We propose that examining extreme events should become a routine part of global and regional climate model evaluation and that addressing shortcomings in this area should be a priority for model development.

Identification of extreme motor phenotypes in Huntington's disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Braisch, Ulrike; Hay, Birgit; Muche, Rainer; Rothenbacher, Dietrich; Landwehrmeyer, G Bernhard; Long, Jeffrey D; Orth, Michael

2017-04-01

The manifestation of motor signs in Huntington's disease (HD) has a well-known inverse relationship with HTT CAG repeat length, but the prediction is far from perfect. The probability of finding disease modifiers is enhanced in individuals with extreme HD phenotypes. We aimed to identify extreme HD motor phenotypes conditional on CAG and age, such as patients with very early or very late onset of motor manifestation. Retrospective data were available from 1,218 healthy controls and 9,743 HD participants with CAG repeats ≥40, and a total of about 30,000 visits. Boundaries (2.5% and 97.5% quantiles) for extreme motor phenotypes (UHDRS total motor score (TMS) and motor age-at-onset) were estimated using quantile regression for longitudinal data. More than 15% of HD participants had an extreme TMS phenotype for at least one visit. In contrast, only about 4% of participants were consistent TMS extremes at two or more visits. Data from healthy controls revealed an upper cut-off of 13 for the TMS representing the extreme of motor ratings for a normal aging population. In HD, boundaries of motor age-at-onset based on diagnostic confidence or derived from the TMS data cut-off in controls were similar. In summary, a UHDRS TMS of more than 13 in an individual carrying the HD mutation indicates a high likelihood of motor manifestations of HD irrespective of CAG repeat length or age. The identification of motor phenotype extremes can be useful in the search for disease modifiers, for example, genetic or environmental such as medication. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Genome variability of foot-and-mouth disease virus during the short period of the 2010 epidemic in Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Nishi, Tatsuya; Yamada, Manabu; Fukai, Katsuhiko; Shimada, Nobuaki; Morioka, Kazuki; Yoshida, Kazuo; Sakamoto, Kenichi; Kanno, Toru; Yamakawa, Makoto

2017-02-01

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is highly contagious and has a high mutation rate, leading to extensive genetic variation. To investigate how FMDV genetically evolves over a short period of an epidemic after initial introduction into an FMD-free area, whole L-fragment sequences of 104 FMDVs isolated from the 2010 epidemic in Japan, which continued for less than three months were determined and phylogenetically and comparatively analyzed. Phylogenetic analysis of whole L-fragment sequences showed that these isolates were classified into a single group, indicating that FMDV was introduced into Japan in the epidemic via a single introduction. Nucleotide sequences of 104 virus isolates showed more than 99.56% pairwise identity rates without any genetic deletion or insertion, although no sequences were completely identical with each other. These results indicate that genetic substitutions of FMDV occurred gradually and constantly during the epidemic and generation of an extensive mutant virus could have been prevented by rapid eradication strategy. From comparative analysis of variability of each FMDV protein coding region, VP4 and 2C regions showed the highest average identity rates and invariant rates, and were confirmed as highly conserved. In contrast, the protein coding regions VP2 and VP1 were confirmed to be highly variable regions with the lowest average identity rates and invariant rates, respectively. Our data demonstrate the importance of rapid eradication strategy in an FMD epidemic and provide valuable information on the genome variability of FMDV during the short period of an epidemic. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Probability distribution of extreme share returns in Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Zin, Wan Zawiah Wan; Safari, Muhammad Aslam Mohd; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Yie, Wendy Ling Shin

2014-09-01

The objective of this study is to investigate the suitable probability distribution to model the extreme share returns in Malaysia. To achieve this, weekly and monthly maximum daily share returns are derived from share prices data obtained from Bursa Malaysia over the period of 2000 to 2012. The study starts with summary statistics of the data which will provide a clue on the likely candidates for the best fitting distribution. Next, the suitability of six extreme value distributions, namely the Gumbel, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Generalized Logistic (GLO) and Generalized Pareto (GPA), the Lognormal (GNO) and the Pearson (PE3) distributions are evaluated. The method of L-moments is used in parameter estimation. Based on several goodness of fit tests and L-moment diagram test, the Generalized Pareto distribution and the Pearson distribution are found to be the best fitted distribution to represent the weekly and monthly maximum share returns in Malaysia stock market during the studied period, respectively.

Transient nanobubbles in short-time electrolysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Svetovoy, Vitaly; Sanders, Remco G.P.; Elwenspoek, Michael Curt

2013-01-01

Water electrolysis in a microsystem is observed and analyzed on a short-time scale of ∼10 μs. The very unusual properties of the process are stressed. An extremely high current density is observed because the process is not limited by the diffusion of electroactive species. The high current is

Lithospheric layering in the North American craton revealed by including Short Period Constraints in Full Waveform Tomography

Science.gov (United States)

Roy, C.; Calo, M.; Bodin, T.; Romanowicz, B. A.

2017-12-01

Recent receiver function studies of the North American craton suggest the presence of significant layering within the cratonic lithosphere, with significant lateral variations in the depth of the velocity discontinuities. These structural boundaries have been confirmed recently using a transdimensional Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach (TMCMC), inverting surface wave dispersion data and converted phases simultaneously (Calò et al., 2016; Roy and Romanowicz 2017). The lateral resolution of upper mantle structure can be improved with a high density of broadband seismic stations, or with a sparse network using full waveform inversion based on numerical wavefield computation methods such as the Spectral Element Method (SEM). However, inverting for discontinuities with strong topography such as MLDS's or LAB, presents challenges in an inversion framework, both computationally, due to the short periods required, and from the point of view of stability of the inversion. To overcome these limitations, and to improve resolution of layering in the upper mantle, we are developing a methodology that combines full waveform inversion tomography and information provided by short period seismic observables. We have extended the 30 1D radially anisotropic shear velocity profiles of Calò et al. 2016 to several other stations, for which we used a recent shear velocity model (Clouzet et al., 2017) as constraint in the modeling. These 1D profiles, including both isotropic and anisotropic discontinuities in the upper mantle (above 300 km depth) are then used to build a 3D starting model for the full waveform tomographic inversion. This model is built after 1) homogenization of the layered 1D models and 2) interpolation between the 1D smooth profiles and the model of Clouzet et al. 2017, resulting in a smooth 3D starting model. Waveforms used in the inversion are filtered at periods longer than 30s. We use the SEM code "RegSEM" for forward computations and a quasi-Newton inversion

A NEW CLASS OF NASCENT ECLIPSING BINARIES WITH EXTREME MASS RATIOS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moe, Maxwell; Stefano, Rosanne Di, E-mail: mmoe@cfa.harvard.edu [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, MS-10, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States)

2015-03-10

Early B-type main-sequence (MS) stars (M {sub 1} ≈ 5-16 M {sub ☉}) with closely orbiting low-mass stellar companions (q = M {sub 2}/M {sub 1} < 0.25) can evolve to produce Type Ia supernovae, low-mass X-ray binaries, and millisecond pulsars. However, the formation mechanism and intrinsic frequency of such close extreme mass-ratio binaries have been debated, especially considering none have hitherto been detected. Utilizing observations of the Large Magellanic Cloud galaxy conducted by the Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment, we have discovered a new class of eclipsing binaries in which a luminous B-type MS star irradiates a closely orbiting low-mass pre-MS companion that has not yet fully formed. The primordial pre-MS companions have large radii and discernibly reflect much of the light they intercept from the B-type MS primaries (ΔI {sub refl} ≈ 0.02-0.14 mag). For the 18 definitive MS + pre-MS eclipsing binaries in our sample with good model fits to the observed light-curves, we measure short orbital periods P = 3.0-8.5 days, young ages τ ≈ 0.6-8 Myr, and small secondary masses M {sub 2} ≈ 0.8-2.4 M {sub ☉} (q ≈ 0.07-0.36). The majority of these nascent eclipsing binaries are still associated with stellar nurseries, e.g., the system with the deepest eclipse ΔI {sub 1} = 2.8 mag and youngest age τ = 0.6 ± 0.4 Myr is embedded in the bright H II region 30 Doradus. After correcting for selection effects, we find that (2.0 ± 0.6)% of B-type MS stars have companions with short orbital periods P = 3.0-8.5 days and extreme mass ratios q ≈ 0.06-0.25. This is ≈10 times greater than that observed for solar-type MS primaries. We discuss how these new eclipsing binaries provide invaluable insights, diagnostics, and challenges for the formation and evolution of stars, binaries, and H II regions.

Study of short-period RS Canum Venaticorum and W Ursae Majoris binary systems: The global nature of Hα

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barden, S.C.

1985-01-01

I present the rotation versus emission characteristics of the Hα line for several short-period (P -5 ) and the Rossby number (the ratio between the rotational period and the convective time scale) is seen for those components showing emission. Such a correlation suggests that the Hα line is a good diagnostic for the study of the magnetic-related activity in late-type stellar systems. Plotting the L/sub Halpha//L/sub bol/ against a measure of the tidal amplitude of Scharlemann shows that the activity of the W UMa secondary components may be shut off by the tidal forces of the primaries. The shut-off appears in those components having a tidal amplitude > or approx. =0.02. It is, however, unclear whether the tidal damping of the differential rotation is the sole mechanism responsible for the shut-off of the Hα emission, as the activity damping may also be attributable to the contact nature of the W UMa systems

Delivery of the extremely low-birth- weight vertex-presenting baby ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2010-12-02

Dec 2, 2010 ... rise in the caesarean section rate.1 This rise has been disproportionate to ... a possible extremely low-birth-weight infant the risks of mortality and short- and .... the US Health Statistics data from 1999 to 2000 using multivariate ...

Quasi-periodic oscillations in short recurring bursts of the soft gamma repeater J1550–5418

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Huppenkothen, D.; D' Angelo, C.; Watts, A. L.; Heil, L.; Van der Klis, M.; Van der Horst, A. J. [Astronomical Institute " Anton Pannekoek," University of Amsterdam, Postbus 94249, 1090 GE Amsterdam (Netherlands); Kouveliotou, C. [Astrophysics Office, ZP 12, NASA-Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, AL 35812 (United States); Baring, M. G. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Rice University, MS-108, P.O. Box 1892, Houston, TX 77251 (United States); Göğüş, E.; Kaneko, Y. [SabancıUniversity, Orhanlı-Tuzla, İstanbul 34956 (Turkey); Granot, J. [Department of Natural Sciences, The Open University of Israel, 1 University Road, P.O. Box 808, Ra' anana 43537 (Israel); Lin, L. [François Arago Centre, APC, 10 rue Alice Domon et Léonie Duquet, F-75205 Paris (France); Von Kienlin, A. [Max-Planck-Institut für extraterrestrische Physik, Giessenbachstrasse 1, D-85748 Garching (Germany); Younes, G., E-mail: D.Huppenkothen@uva.nl [NSSTC, 320 Sparkman Drive, Huntsville, AL 35805 (United States)

2014-06-01

The discovery of quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs) in magnetar giant flares has opened up prospects for neutron star asteroseismology. The scarcity of giant flares makes a search for QPOs in the shorter, far more numerous bursts from soft gamma repeaters (SGRs) desirable. In Huppenkothen et al., we developed a Bayesian method for searching for QPOs in short magnetar bursts, taking into account the effects of the complicated burst structure, and have shown its feasibility on a small sample of bursts. Here we apply the same method to a much larger sample from a burst storm of 286 bursts from SGR J1550–5418. We report a candidate signal at 260 Hz in a search of the individual bursts, which is fairly broad. We also find two QPOs at ∼93 Hz, and one at 127 Hz, when averaging periodograms from a number of bursts in individual triggers, at frequencies close to QPOs previously observed in magnetar giant flares. Finally, for the first time, we explore the overall burst variability in the sample and report a weak anti-correlation between the power-law index of the broadband model characterizing aperiodic burst variability and the burst duration: shorter bursts have steeper power-law indices than longer bursts. This indicates that longer bursts vary over a broader range of timescales and are not simply longer versions of the short bursts.

Glacial vs. Interglacial Period Contrasts in Midlatitude Fluvial Systems, with Examples from Western Europe and the Texas Coastal Plain

Science.gov (United States)

Blum, M.

2001-12-01

Mixed bedrock-alluvial valleys are the conveyor belts for sediment delivery to passive continental margins. Mapping, stratigraphic and sedimentologic investigations, and development of geochronological frameworks for large midlatitude rivers of this type, in Western Europe and the Texas Coastal Plain, provide for evaluation of fluvial responses to climate change over the last glacial-interglacial period, and the foundations for future quantitative evaluation of long profile evolution, changes through time in flood magnitude, and changes in storage and flux of sediments. This paper focuses on two issues. First, glacial vs. interglacial period fluvial systems are fundamentally different in terms of channel geometry, depositional style, and patterns of sediment storage. Glacial-period systems were dominated by coarse-grained channel belts (braided channels in Europe, large-wavelength meandering in Texas), and lacked fine-grained flood-plain deposits, whereas Holocene units, especially those of late Holocene age, contain appreciable thicknesses of flood-plain facies. Hence, extreme overbank flooding was not significant during the long glacial period, most flood events were contained within bankfull channel perimeters, and fine sediments were bypassed through the system to marine basins. By contrast, extreme overbank floods have been increasingly important during the relatively short Holocene, and a significant volume of fine sediment is sequestered in flood-plain settings. Second, glacial vs. interglacial systems exhibit different amplitudes and frequencies of fluvial adjustment to climate change. High-amplitude but low-frequency adjustments characterized the long glacial period, with 2-3 extended periods of lateral migration and sediment storage puncuated by episodes of valley incision. Low-amplitude but high-frequency adjustments have been more typical of the short Holocene, when there has been little net valley incision or net changes in sediment storage, but

PHOTOMETRIC STUDIES OF THREE NEGLECTED SHORT-PERIOD CONTACT BINARIES GN BOOTIS, BL LEONIS, AND V1918 CYGNI

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Y.-G.; Dai, H.-F.; Qian, S.-B.

2013-01-01

We present new photometry for three short-period contact binaries, GN Boo, BL Leo, and V1918 Cyg, observed from 2008 December to 2012 April using several small telescopes in China. Photometric models were deduced from new observations using the updated Wilson-Devinney Code. The results show that GN Boo and BL Leo are W-type contact binaries, while V1918 Cyg is an A-type one. The mass ratios and fill-out factors are q = 0.320(± 0.002) and f = 5.8(± 0.1)% for GN Boo, q = 0.476(± 0.005) and f = 21.3(± 1.1)% for BL Leo, q = 0.264(± 0.002), and f = 49.7(± 0.7)% for V1918 Cyg, respectively. From the (O – C) curves, it is discovered that the orbital periods of three binaries have varied in a complicated way, i.e., cyclic oscillation for GN Boo, long-term period decrease for BL Leo, and both for V1918 Cyg. The cyclic variations for GN Boo and V1918 Cyg may probably be attributed to the magnetic activity of the primary component or light-time effect due to the third body. Meanwhile, the secular period decreases for BL Leo and V1918 Cyg may result from mass transfer from the primary to the secondary, accompanying the mass and angular momentum loss from the central system. Finally, GN Boo, BL Leo, and V1918 Cyg will evolve into deep contact binaries. Additionally, a statistical study of 37 contact binaries with decreasing periods is given. We obtained the relations of q – f and q – dln P/dt, and preliminarily determined the mass loss rate of dln M/dt from the binary system.

Influence of the interface on growth rates in AlN/GaN short period superlattices via metal organic vapor phase epitaxy

Science.gov (United States)

Rodak, L. E.; Korakakis, D.

2011-11-01

AlN/GaN short period superlattices are well suited for a number of applications including, but not limited to, digital alloys, intersubband devices, and emitters. In this work, AlN/GaN superlattices with periodicities ranging from 10 to 20 Å have been grown via metal organic vapor phase epitaxy in order to investigate the influence of the interface on the binary alloy growth rates. The GaN growth rate at the interface was observed to decrease with increasing GaN thickness while the AlN growth rate remained constant. This has been attributed to a decrease in the decomposition rate of GaN at the hetero-interface as seen in other III-V hetero-structures.

Trends in extreme temperature and precipitation in Muscat, Oman

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. N. Gunawardhana

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Changes in frequency and intensity of weather events often result in more frequent and intensive disasters such as flash floods and persistent droughts. In Oman, changes in precipitation and temperature have already been detected, although a comprehensive analysis to determine long-term trends is yet to be conducted. We analysed daily precipitation and temperature records in Muscat, the capital city of Oman, mainly focusing on extremes. A set of climate indices, defined in the RClimDex software package, were derived from the longest available daily series (precipitation over the period 1977–2011 and temperature over the period 1986–2011. Results showed significant changes in temperature extremes associated with cooling. Annual maximum value of daily maximum temperature (TX, on average, decreased by 1°C (0.42°C/10 year. Similarly, the annual minimum value of daily minimum temperature (TN decreased by 1.5°C (0.61°C/10 year, which, on average, cooled at a faster rate than the maximum temperature. Consequently, the annual count of days when TX > 45°C (98th percentile decreased from 8 to 3, by 5 days. Similarly, the annual count of days when TN < 15°C (2nd percentile increased from 5 to 15, by 10 days. Annual total precipitation averaged over the period 1977–2011 is 81 mm, which shows a tendency toward wetter conditions with a 6 mm/10 year rate. There is also a significant tendency for stronger precipitation extremes according to many indices. The contribution from very wet days to the annual precipitation totals steadily increases with significance at 75% level. When The General Extreme Value (GEV probability distribution is fitted to annual maximum 1-day precipitation, the return level of a 10-year return period in 1995–2011 was estimated to be 95 mm. This return level in the recent decade is about 70% higher than the return level for the period of 1977–1994. These results indicate that the long-term wetting signal apparent in total

Correlation dimension and phase space contraction via extreme value theory

Science.gov (United States)

Faranda, Davide; Vaienti, Sandro

2018-04-01

We show how to obtain theoretical and numerical estimates of correlation dimension and phase space contraction by using the extreme value theory. The maxima of suitable observables sampled along the trajectory of a chaotic dynamical system converge asymptotically to classical extreme value laws where: (i) the inverse of the scale parameter gives the correlation dimension and (ii) the extremal index is associated with the rate of phase space contraction for backward iteration, which in dimension 1 and 2, is closely related to the positive Lyapunov exponent and in higher dimensions is related to the metric entropy. We call it the Dynamical Extremal Index. Numerical estimates are straightforward to obtain as they imply just a simple fit to a univariate distribution. Numerical tests range from low dimensional maps, to generalized Henon maps and climate data. The estimates of the indicators are particularly robust even with relatively short time series.

Predicting Malaysian palm oil price using Extreme Value Theory

OpenAIRE

Chuangchid, K; Sriboonchitta, S; Rahman, S; Wiboonpongse, A

2013-01-01

This paper uses the extreme value theory (EVT) to predict extreme price events of Malaysian palm oil in the future, based on monthly futures price data for a 25 year period (mid-1986 to mid-2011). Model diagnostic has confirmed non-normal distribution of palm oil price data, thereby justifying the use of EVT. Two principal approaches to model extreme values – the Block Maxima (BM) and Peak-Over- Threshold (POT) models – were used. Both models revealed that the palm oil price will peak at ...

Donor of winter rye short stem (Secale cereale L. Gnom 1

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

В. В. Скорик

2013-08-01

Full Text Available The article proves that the genetic cluster analysis using of parents – offspring system at the period of 38 generations of directional intentional selection to short stem, the height of winter rye plants has been reduced less than 90 cm with simultaneously productivity integral components increasing. Directional selection on parent plants short stem has revealed pleiotropic effects to increasing averages of productivity yield capacity, spike length, flowers number, grains, and short stem and simultaneously its productivity reducing, plant and weight reducing of 100 direct descendants grains. Plant height donor of short stem Gnome 1 has been controlled prevailing by genetic factors and has been less influenced by environmental conditions. Selection by enlargement of elite plants grains has predetermined genetically increasing of the average height of families in the next generation without the concept selection requirements satisfaction. Therefore, the directed selections, by the structural analysis results, are annually held in two phases, first – to the expressed short stem and then among of them – to the high weight of 100 grains per plant and desirable productivity elements. A creative dominant short stem donor with stems up to 90 cm and a weight of 100 grains per plant more than 4.0 g has been made. A short stem spike shortness donor Dwarf 1possesses a significant reserve of common genetic mutation of quantitative characteristics, which can be used by direct and indirect selection. This population has been represented by its large amount, in order to enhance capabilities of directional selection plants short stem providing with the desired productivity components during the studying. Informative additive genetic cluster analysis is high. Plants productivity is considered to be extremely complicated selection characteristics, including many component constituents parts related genetically. One of these traits changing inevitably causes

Return Period of a Sea Storm with at Least Two Waves Higher than a Fixed Threshold

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Felice Arena

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Practical applications in ocean engineering require the long-term analysis for prediction of extreme waves, that identify design conditions. If extreme individual waves are investigated, we need to combine long-term statistical analysis of ocean waves with short-term statistics. The former considers the distribution of standard deviation of free surface displacement in the considered location in a long-time span, of order of 10 years or more. The latter analyzes the distribution of individual wave heights in a sea state, which is a Gaussian process in time domain. Recent advanced approaches enable the combination of the two analyses. In the paper the analytical solution is obtained for the return period of a sea storm with at least two individual waves higher than a fixed level. This solution is based on the application of the Equivalent Triangular Storm model for the representation of actual storms. One of the corollaries of the solution gives the exact expression for the probability that at least two waves higher than fixed level are produced during the lifetime of a structure. The previous solution of return period and the relative probability of exceedance may be effectively applied for the risk analysis of ocean structures.

Technical note: Space-time analysis of rainfall extremes in Italy: clues from a reconciled dataset

Science.gov (United States)

Libertino, Andrea; Ganora, Daniele; Claps, Pierluigi

2018-05-01

Like other Mediterranean areas, Italy is prone to the development of events with significant rainfall intensity, lasting for several hours. The main triggering mechanisms of these events are quite well known, but the aim of developing rainstorm hazard maps compatible with their actual probability of occurrence is still far from being reached. A systematic frequency analysis of these occasional highly intense events would require a complete countrywide dataset of sub-daily rainfall records, but this kind of information was still lacking for the Italian territory. In this work several sources of data are gathered, for assembling the first comprehensive and updated dataset of extreme rainfall of short duration in Italy. The resulting dataset, referred to as the Italian Rainfall Extreme Dataset (I-RED), includes the annual maximum rainfalls recorded in 1 to 24 consecutive hours from more than 4500 stations across the country, spanning the period between 1916 and 2014. A detailed description of the spatial and temporal coverage of the I-RED is presented, together with an exploratory statistical analysis aimed at providing preliminary information on the climatology of extreme rainfall at the national scale. Due to some legal restrictions, the database can be provided only under certain conditions. Taking into account the potentialities emerging from the analysis, a description of the ongoing and planned future work activities on the database is provided.

Extreme Achalasia Presenting as Anorexia Nervosa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. J. Goldsmith

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Background. Achalasia may lead to cachexia if not diagnosed in an early stage. Surgery in cachectic patients is hazardous and complications may result in a protracted recovery or even death. Different treatment options have been described. In this paper, we report a stepwise surgical laparoscopic approach which appears to be safe and effective. Methods. Over a one-year period, a patient with a body mass index (BMI below 17 being treated for anorexia nervosa was referred with dysphagia. Because of the extreme cachexia, a laparoscopic feeding jejunostomy (LFJ was fashioned to enable long-term home enteral feeding. The patient underwent a laparoscopic Heller myotomy (LHM when the BMI was normal. Results. The patient recovered well following this stepwise approach. Conclusion. Patients with advanced achalasia usually present with extreme weight loss. In this small group of patients, a period of home enteral nutrition (HEN via a laparoscopically placed feeding jejunostomy allows weight gain prior to safe definitive surgery.

Optical properties of spontaneous lateral composition modulation in AlAs/InAs short-period superlattices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Francoeur, S.; Zhang, Yong; Norman, A. G.; Alsina, F.; Mascarenhas, A.; Reno, J. L.; Jones, E. D.; Lee, S. R.; Follstaedt, D. M.

2000-01-01

The effect of lateral composition modulation, spontaneously generated during the epitaxial growth of an AlAs/InAs short-period superlattice, on the electronic band structure is investigated using phototransmission and photoluminescence spectroscopy. Compared with uniform layers of identical average composition, the presence of the composition modulation considerably reduces the band-gap energy and produces strongly polarized emission and absorption spectra. We demonstrate that the dominant polarization direction can selectively be aligned along the [1(bar sign)10] or [010] crystallographic directions. In compressively strained samples, the use of (001) InP substrates slightly miscut toward (111)A or (101) resulted in modulation directions along [110] or [100], respectively, and dominant polarization directions along a direction orthogonal to the respective composition modulation. Band-gap reductions as high as 350 and 310 meV are obtained for samples with composition modulation along [110] and [100], respectively. Ratios of polarized intensities up to 26 are observed in transmission spectra. (c) 2000 American Institute of Physics

Estimates of extremes in the best of all possible worlds

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Van Nooyen, R.R.P.; Kolechkina, A.G.

2012-01-01

In applied hydrology the question of the probability of exceeding a certain value occurs regularly. Often it is in a context where extrapolation from a relatively short time series is needed. It is well known that in its simplest form extreme value theory applies to independent identically

Comparative outcome of bomb explosion injuries versus high-powered gunshot injuries of the upper extremity in a civilian setting.

Science.gov (United States)

Luria, Shai; Rivkin, Gurion; Avitzour, Malka; Liebergall, Meir; Mintz, Yoav; Mosheiff, Ram

2013-03-01

Explosion injuries to the upper extremity have specific clinical characteristics that differ from injuries due to other mechanisms. To evaluate the upper extremity injury pattern of attacks on civilian targets, comparing bomb explosion injuries to gunshot injuries and their functional recovery using standard outcome measures. Of 157 patients admitted to the hospital between 2000 and 2004, 72 (46%) sustained explosion injuries and 85 (54%) gunshot injuries. The trauma registry files were reviewed and the patients completed the DASH Questionnaire (Disabilities of Arm, Shoulder and Hand) and SF-12 (Short Form-12) after a minimum period of 1 year. Of the 157 patients, 72 (46%) had blast injuries and 85 (54%) had shooting injuries. The blast casualties had higher Injury Severity Scores (47% vs. 22% with a score of > 16, P = 0.02) and higher percent of patients treated in intensive care units (47% vs. 28%, P = 0.02). Although the Abbreviated Injury Scale score of the upper extremity injury was similar in the two groups, the blast casualties were found to have more bilateral and complex soft tissue injuries and were treated surgically more often. No difference was found in the SF-12 or DASH scores between the groups at follow up. The casualties with upper extremity blast injuries were more severely injured and sustained more bilateral and complex soft tissue injuries to the upper extremity. However, the rating of the local injury to the isolated limb is similar, as was the subjective functional recovery.

Coherent harmonics generated by a super-short electron pulse

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ding Wu

1996-01-01

A novel mechanism generating superradiance harmonics is found. In this superradiance harmonics, the temporal width of harmonics is extremely short, the ratio of high harmonic fundamental wave is much higher than the known superradiance harmonics

Response of Aspergillus niger Inoculated on Tomatoes Exposed to Vapor Phase Mustard Essential Oil for Short or Long Periods and Sensory Evaluation of Treated Tomatoes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ana Elena Aguilar-González

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The inhibitory effect of mustard essential oil (EO in vapor phase against Aspergillus niger was evaluated in vitro and in vivo (in tomatoes. Mold response in tomatoes exposed for short or long periods to selected concentrations of mustard EO was also evaluated. Furthermore, a sensory evaluation was also performed among treated tomatoes and compared with nontreated ones. Minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC for the studied EO was determined by the inverted Petri dish method. MIC for the in vitro and in vivo tests for mustard EO was of 3.08 μL/Lair. In vitro and in vivo results demonstrate the effectiveness of vapors of mustard EO against A. niger. The studied EO contains highly volatile organic compounds with strong inhibitory effects, even when applied for short periods, and can consequently be considered a good alternative to traditional synthetic antimicrobials without detriment of selected sensory attributes.

CSI 2264: CHARACTERIZING YOUNG STARS IN NGC 2264 WITH SHORT-DURATION PERIODIC FLUX DIPS IN THEIR LIGHT CURVES

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stauffer, John; Cody, Ann Marie; Rebull, Luisa; Plavchan, Peter; Carey, Sean [Spitzer Science Center, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); McGinnis, Pauline; Alencar, Silvia H. P. [Departamento de Física—ICEx—UFMG, Av. Antônio Carlos, 6627, 30270-901, Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil); Hillenbrand, Lynne A.; Carpenter, John [Astronomy Department, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Turner, Neal J. [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109 (United States); Terebey, Susan [Department of Physics and Astronomy, 5151 State University Drive, California State University at Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90032 (United States); Morales-Calderón, María [Centro de Astrobiología, Dpto. de Astrofísica, INTA-CSIC, PO BOX 78, E-28691, ESAC Campus, Villanueva de la Cañada, Madrid (Spain); Bouvier, Jerome; Venuti, Laura [Université de Grenoble, Institut de Planétologie et d’Astrophysique de Grenoble (IPAG), F-38000 Grenoble (France); CNRS, IPAG, F-38000 Grenoble (France); Hartmann, Lee; Calvet, Nuria [Department of Astronomy, University of Michigan, 500 Church Street, Ann Arbor, MI 48105 (United States); Micela, Giusi; Flaccomio, Ettore [INAF—Osservatorio Astronomico di Palermo, Piazza del Parlamento 1, I-90134, Palermo (Italy); Song, Inseok [Department of Physics and Astronomy, The University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602–2451 (United States); Gutermuth, Rob, E-mail: stauffer@ipac.caltech.edu [Department of Astronomy, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003 (United States); and others

2015-04-15

We identify nine young stellar objects (YSOs) in the NGC 2264 star-forming region with optical CoRoT light curves exhibiting short-duration, shallow periodic flux dips. All of these stars have infrared excesses that are consistent with their having inner disk walls near the Keplerian co-rotation radius. The repeating photometric dips have FWHMs generally less than 1 day, depths almost always less than 15%, and periods (3 < P < 11 days) consistent with dust near the Keplerian co-rotation period. The flux dips vary considerably in their depth from epoch to epoch, but usually persist for several weeks and, in two cases, were present in data collected in successive years. For several of these stars, we also measure the photospheric rotation period and find that the rotation and dip periods are the same, as predicted by standard “disk-locking” models. We attribute these flux dips to clumps of material in or near the inner disk wall, passing through our line of sight to the stellar photosphere. In some cases, these dips are also present in simultaneous Spitzer IRAC light curves at 3.6 and 4.5 microns. We characterize the properties of these dips, and compare the stars with light curves exhibiting this behavior to other classes of YSOs in NGC 2264. A number of physical mechanisms could locally increase the dust scale height near the inner disk wall, and we discuss several of those mechanisms; the most plausible mechanisms are either a disk warp due to interaction with the stellar magnetic field or dust entrained in funnel-flow accretion columns arising near the inner disk wall.

CSI 2264: CHARACTERIZING YOUNG STARS IN NGC 2264 WITH SHORT-DURATION PERIODIC FLUX DIPS IN THEIR LIGHT CURVES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stauffer, John; Cody, Ann Marie; Rebull, Luisa; Plavchan, Peter; Carey, Sean; McGinnis, Pauline; Alencar, Silvia H. P.; Hillenbrand, Lynne A.; Carpenter, John; Turner, Neal J.; Terebey, Susan; Morales-Calderón, María; Bouvier, Jerome; Venuti, Laura; Hartmann, Lee; Calvet, Nuria; Micela, Giusi; Flaccomio, Ettore; Song, Inseok; Gutermuth, Rob

2015-01-01

We identify nine young stellar objects (YSOs) in the NGC 2264 star-forming region with optical CoRoT light curves exhibiting short-duration, shallow periodic flux dips. All of these stars have infrared excesses that are consistent with their having inner disk walls near the Keplerian co-rotation radius. The repeating photometric dips have FWHMs generally less than 1 day, depths almost always less than 15%, and periods (3 < P < 11 days) consistent with dust near the Keplerian co-rotation period. The flux dips vary considerably in their depth from epoch to epoch, but usually persist for several weeks and, in two cases, were present in data collected in successive years. For several of these stars, we also measure the photospheric rotation period and find that the rotation and dip periods are the same, as predicted by standard “disk-locking” models. We attribute these flux dips to clumps of material in or near the inner disk wall, passing through our line of sight to the stellar photosphere. In some cases, these dips are also present in simultaneous Spitzer IRAC light curves at 3.6 and 4.5 microns. We characterize the properties of these dips, and compare the stars with light curves exhibiting this behavior to other classes of YSOs in NGC 2264. A number of physical mechanisms could locally increase the dust scale height near the inner disk wall, and we discuss several of those mechanisms; the most plausible mechanisms are either a disk warp due to interaction with the stellar magnetic field or dust entrained in funnel-flow accretion columns arising near the inner disk wall

Improving Modeling of Extreme Events using Generalized Extreme Value Distribution or Generalized Pareto Distribution with Mixing Unconditional Disturbances

OpenAIRE

Suarez, R

2001-01-01

In this paper an alternative non-parametric historical simulation approach, the Mixing Unconditional Disturbances model with constant volatility, where price paths are generated by reshuffling disturbances for S&P 500 Index returns over the period 1950 - 1998, is used to estimate a Generalized Extreme Value Distribution and a Generalized Pareto Distribution. An ordinary back-testing for period 1999 - 2008 was made to verify this technique, providing higher accuracy returns level under upper ...

Extreme event statistics in a drifting Markov chain

Science.gov (United States)

Kindermann, Farina; Hohmann, Michael; Lausch, Tobias; Mayer, Daniel; Schmidt, Felix; Widera, Artur

2017-07-01

We analyze extreme event statistics of experimentally realized Markov chains with various drifts. Our Markov chains are individual trajectories of a single atom diffusing in a one-dimensional periodic potential. Based on more than 500 individual atomic traces we verify the applicability of the Sparre Andersen theorem to our system despite the presence of a drift. We present detailed analysis of four different rare-event statistics for our system: the distributions of extreme values, of record values, of extreme value occurrence in the chain, and of the number of records in the chain. We observe that, for our data, the shape of the extreme event distributions is dominated by the underlying exponential distance distribution extracted from the atomic traces. Furthermore, we find that even small drifts influence the statistics of extreme events and record values, which is supported by numerical simulations, and we identify cases in which the drift can be determined without information about the underlying random variable distributions. Our results facilitate the use of extreme event statistics as a signal for small drifts in correlated trajectories.

Assessing spatial patterns of extreme droughts associated to return periods from observed dataset: Case study of Segura River Basin (Spain)

Science.gov (United States)

García Galiano, Sandra G.; Diego Giraldo Osorio, Juan

2013-04-01

In basins of South-eastern Spain, such as the Segura River Basin (SRB), a strong decrease in runoff from the end of the 1970s has been observed. In the SRB, due to intensive reforestation aimed at halting desertification and erosion, added to climate variability and change, the default assumption of stationarity in water resources systems cannot be guaranteed. Therefore there is an important need for improvement in the ability of monitoring and predicting the impacts associated with the change of hydrologic regime. It is thus necessary to apply non-stationary probabilistic models, which are able to reproduce probability density functions whose parameters vary with time. From a high-resolution daily gridded rainfall dataset of more than 50 years (1950-2007 time period), the spatial distribution of lengths of maximum dry spells for several thresholds are assessed, applying GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Models for Location Scale and Shape) models at grid site. Results reveal an intensification of extreme drought events in some headbasins of the SRB important for water supply. The identification of spatial patterns of drought hazards at basin scale, associated to return periods, contribute to designing strategies of drought contingency preparedness and recovery operations, which are the leading edge of adaptation strategies.

The development of personality extremity from childhood to adolescence: relations to internalizing and externalizing problems.

Science.gov (United States)

Van den Akker, Alithe L; Prinzie, Peter; Deković, Maja; De Haan, Amaranta D; Asscher, Jessica J; Widiger, Thomas

2013-12-01

This study investigated the development of personality extremity (deviation of an average midpoint of all 5 personality dimensions together) across childhood and adolescence, as well as relations between personality extremity and adjustment problems. For 598 children (mean age at Time 1 = 7.5 years), mothers and fathers reported the Big Five personality dimensions 4 times across 8 years. Children's vector length in a 5-dimensional configuration of the Big Five dimensions represented personality extremity. Mothers, fathers, and teachers reported children's internalizing and externalizing problems at the 1st and final measurement. In a cohort-sequential design, we modeled personality extremity in children and adolescents from ages 6 to 17 years. Growth mixture modeling revealed a similar solution for both mother and father reports: a large group with relatively short vectors that were stable over time (mother reports: 80.3%; father reports: 84.7%) and 2 smaller groups with relatively long vectors (i.e., extreme personality configuration). One group started out relatively extreme and decreased over time (mother reports: 13.2%; father reports: 10.4%), whereas the other group started out only slightly higher than the short vector group but increased across time (mother reports: 6.5%; father reports: 4.9%). Children who belonged to the increasingly extreme class experienced more internalizing and externalizing problems in late adolescence, controlling for previous levels of adjustment problems and the Big Five personality dimensions. Personality extremity may be important to consider when identifying children at risk for adjustment problems. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Future Precipitation Extremes in China Under Climate Change and Their Possible Mechanisms by Regional Climate Model and Earth System Model Simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Qin, P.; Xie, Z.

2017-12-01

Future precipitation extremes in China for the mid and end of 21st century were detected with six simulations using the regional climate model RegCM4 (RCM) and 17 global climate models (GCM) participated in the coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Prior to understanding the future changes in precipitation extremes, we overviewed the performance of precipitation extremes simulated by the CMIP5s and RCMs, and found both CMIP5s and RCMs could capture the temporal and spatial pattern of the historical precipitation extremes in China. In the mid-future period 2039-2058 (MF) and far-future 2079-2098 (FF), more wet precipitation extremes will occur in most area of China relative to the present period 1982-2001 (RF). We quantified the rates of the changes in precipitation extremes in China with the changes in air surface temperature (T2M) for the MF and FF period. Changes in precipitation extremes R95p were found around 5% K-1 for the MF period and 10% K-1 for the FF period, and changes in maximum 5 day precipitation (Rx5day) were detected around 4% K-1 for the MF period and 7% K-1 for the FF period, respectively. Finally, the possible physical mechanisms behind the changes in precipitation extremes in China were also discussed through the changes in specific humidity and vertical wind.

An Ultra-short Period Rocky Super-Earth with a Secondary Eclipse and a Neptune-like Companion around K2-141

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Malavolta, Luca; Mayo, Andrew W.; Louden, Tom

2018-01-01

of USP planets, and it is therefore extremely important to increase the still limited sample of USP planets with precise and accurate mass and density measurements. We report here the characterization of a USP planet with a period of 0.28 days around K2-141 (EPIC 246393474), and the validation...... of an outer planet with a period of 7.7 days in a grazing transit configuration. We derived the radii of the planets from the K2 light curve and used high-precision radial velocities gathered with the HARPS-N spectrograph for mass measurements. For K2-141b, we thus inferred a radius of 1.51 ± 0.05 R......⊕ and a mass of 5.08 ± 0.41 M ⊕, consistent with a rocky composition and lack of a thick atmosphere. K2-141c is likely a Neptune-like planet, although due to the grazing transits and the non-detection in the RV data set, we were not able to put a strong constraint on its density. We also report the detection...

Mask Materials and Designs for Extreme Ultra Violet Lithography

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Jung Sik; Ahn, Jinho

2018-03-01

Extreme ultra violet lithography (EUVL) is no longer a future technology but is going to be inserted into mass production of semiconductor devices of 7 nm technology node in 2018. EUVL is an extension of optical lithography using extremely short wavelength (13.5 nm). This short wavelength requires major modifications in the optical systems due to the very strong absorption of EUV light by materials. Refractive optics can no longer be used, and reflective optics is the only solution to transfer image from mask to wafer. This is why we need the multilayer (ML) mirror-based mask as well as an oblique incident angle of light. This paper discusses the principal theory on the EUV mask design and its component materials including ML reflector and EUV absorber. Mask shadowing effect (or mask 3D effect) is explained and its technical solutions like phase shift mask is reviewed. Even though not all the technical issues on EUV mask are handled in this review paper, you will be able to understand the principles determining the performance of EUV masks.

Statistical distributions of extreme dry spell in Peninsular Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Zin, Wan Zawiah Wan; Jemain, Abdul Aziz

2010-11-01

Statistical distributions of annual extreme (AE) series and partial duration (PD) series for dry-spell event are analyzed for a database of daily rainfall records of 50 rain-gauge stations in Peninsular Malaysia, with recording period extending from 1975 to 2004. The three-parameter generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto (GP) distributions are considered to model both series. In both cases, the parameters of these two distributions are fitted by means of the L-moments method, which provides a robust estimation of them. The goodness-of-fit (GOF) between empirical data and theoretical distributions are then evaluated by means of the L-moment ratio diagram and several goodness-of-fit tests for each of the 50 stations. It is found that for the majority of stations, the AE and PD series are well fitted by the GEV and GP models, respectively. Based on the models that have been identified, we can reasonably predict the risks associated with extreme dry spells for various return periods.

Extremely high concentration of folates in premature newborns.

Science.gov (United States)

Zikavska, T; Brucknerova, I

2014-01-01

Extremely high concentration of folates in premature newborns: case reports. Folates are a group of water soluble compounds, which are important for metabolic processes in human body. These are important during periods of rapid cell growth. The most accurate indicator of long-term folate level status in the body is the determination of red blood cell (RBC) folate concentrations. The optimal level of RBC folate is not known in neonatal period. Authors discuss the reasons for extremely high level of RBC folate concentrations. In our work we present the cases of two premature newborns with extremely high level of RBC folate concentrations, which were analyzed immunochemically on the first day of life and after six weeks of life. In both cases we measured RBC folate concentrations on the 1st day of life. After 6 weeks we found extremely high RBC folate concentration level (5516.67 ng/ml) in the first case after RBC transfusions. In second case after two months of life the RBC folate concentration level was doubled (2335.1 ng/ml) until 24 hours after RBC transfusion compared to levels after birth. The normal range of RBC folate values vary in newborns. The upper limit of daily dose of folic acid in pregnancy and neonatal period is not known. On the other hand it is an easily excreted water-soluble vitamin but in premature newborn it can lead to the disruption of metabolic balance and slow its degradation. Some factors can have an impact on RBC folate concentration. Blood transfusion can be one of the main influences on RBC folate concentration. To clarify these mechanisms further studies are required (Ref. 29).

Wind and wave extremes over the world oceans from very large ensembles

Science.gov (United States)

Breivik, Øyvind; Aarnes, Ole Johan; Abdalla, Saleh; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond; Janssen, Peter A. E. M.

2014-07-01

Global return values of marine wind speed and significant wave height are estimated from very large aggregates of archived ensemble forecasts at +240 h lead time. Long lead time ensures that the forecasts represent independent draws from the model climate. Compared with ERA-Interim, a reanalysis, the ensemble yields higher return estimates for both wind speed and significant wave height. Confidence intervals are much tighter due to the large size of the data set. The period (9 years) is short enough to be considered stationary even with climate change. Furthermore, the ensemble is large enough for nonparametric 100 year return estimates to be made from order statistics. These direct return estimates compare well with extreme value estimates outside areas with tropical cyclones. Like any method employing modeled fields, it is sensitive to tail biases in the numerical model, but we find that the biases are moderate outside areas with tropical cyclones.

Observed change in extreme daily rainfalls in the French Mediterranean

Science.gov (United States)

Ribes, Aurélien; Thao, Soulivanh; Vautard, Robert; Dubuisson, Brigitte; Somot, Samuel; Colin, Jeanne; Planton, Serge; Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel

2017-04-01

In spite of a relatively dry mean climate, the Mediterranean regions in Southern France use to experience heavy rainfalls over short durations - typically a few minutes to one day. Here we examine long-term trends in the historical record of extreme precipitation events occurring over the French Mediterranean area, where many long homogeneous time-series are available. Extreme events are considered in terms of their intensity, frequency, extent and precipitated volume. Changes in intensity are analysed via an original statistical approach where the annual maximum rainfall observed at each measurement station are aggregated into a univariate time-series, according to their statistical dependence. This procedure substantially enhances the signal-to-noise ratio. The mean intensity increase is significant and estimated at +22% (+7% to +39% at the 90% confidence level) over the 1961-2015 period. Given the observed warming over the considered area, this increase is consistent with a rate of about one to three times that implied by the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. Changes in frequency and other spatial features are investigated through a Generalised Linear Model. Changes in frequencies for events exceeding high thresholds (about 200mm in one day) are found to be significant, typically near a doubling of the frequency, but with large uncertainties in this risk ratio. The area affected by severe events and the water volume precipitated during those events also exhibit significant trends, with an increase by a factor of about 4 for a 200mm threshold, again with large uncertainties. All diagnoses consistently point toward an intensification of the most extreme events during the last decades. We argue that the diagnosed trends can hardly be explained without invoking the human influence on climate.

The results of bone deformity correction using a spider frame with web-based software for lower extremity long bone deformities.

Science.gov (United States)

Tekin, Ali Çağrı; Çabuk, Haluk; Dedeoğlu, Süleyman Semih; Saygılı, Mehmet Selçuk; Adaş, Müjdat; Esenyel, Cem Zeki; Büyükkurt, Cem Dinçay; Tonbul, Murat

2016-03-22

To present the functional and radiological results and evaluate the effectiveness of a computer-assisted external fixator (spider frame) in patients with lower extremity shortness and deformity. The study comprised 17 patients (14 male, 3 female) who were treated for lower extremity long bone deformity and shortness between 2012 and 2015 using a spider frame. The procedure's level of difficulty was determined preoperatively using the Paley Scale. Postoperatively, the results for the patients who underwent tibial operations were evaluated using the Paley criteria modified by ASAMI, and the results for the patients who underwent femoral operations were evaluated according to the Paley scoring system. The evaluations were made by calculating the External Fixator and Distraction indexes. The mean age of the patients was 24.58 years (range, 5-51 years). The spider frame was applied to the femur in 10 patients and to the tibia in seven. The mean follow-up period was 15 months (range, 6-31 months) from the operation day, and the mean amount of lengthening was 3.0 cm (range, 1-6 cm). The mean duration of fixator application was 202.7 days (range, 104-300 days). The mean External Fixator Index was 98 days/cm (range, 42-265 days/cm). The mean Distraction Index was 10.49 days/cm (range, 10-14 days/cm). The computer-assisted external fixator system (spider frame) achieves single-stage correction in cases of both deformity and shortness. The system can be applied easily, and because of its high-tech software, it offers the possibility of postoperative treatment of the deformity.

Regional frequency analysis of short duration rainfall extremes using gridded daily rainfall data as co-variate

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, H.; Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Rosbjerg, Dan

2017-01-01

with daily measurements. The Poisson rate is positively correlated to the mean annual precipitation for all durations considered (1 min to 48 hours). The mean intensity can be assumed constant over Denmark for durations up to 1 hour. For durations larger than 1 hour the mean intensity is significantly...... correlated to the mean extreme daily precipitation. A Generalised Pareto distribution with a regional constant shape parameter is adopted. Compared to previous regional studies in Denmark a general increase in extreme rainfall intensity for durations up to 1 hour is found, whereas for larger durations both...

Wealth distribution of simple exchange models coupled with extremal dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Bagatella-Flores, N.; Rodríguez-Achach, M.; Coronel-Brizio, H. F.; Hernández-Montoya, A. R.

2015-01-01

Punctuated Equilibrium (PE) states that after long periods of evolutionary quiescence, species evolution can take place in short time intervals, where sudden differentiation makes new species emerge and some species extinct. In this paper, we introduce and study the effect of punctuated equilibrium on two different asset exchange models: the yard sale model (YS, winner gets a random fraction of a poorer player's wealth) and the theft and fraud model (TF, winner gets a random fraction of the loser's wealth). The resulting wealth distribution is characterized using the Gini index. In order to do this, we consider PE as a perturbation with probability ρ of being applied. We compare the resulting values of the Gini index at different increasing values of ρ in both models. We found that in the case of the TF model, the Gini index reduces as the perturbation ρ increases, not showing dependence with the agents number. While for YS we observe a phase transition which happens around ρc = 0.79. For perturbations ρ <ρc the Gini index reaches the value of one as time increases (an extreme wealth condensation state), whereas for perturbations greater than or equal to ρc the Gini index becomes different to one, avoiding the system reaches this extreme state. We show that both simple exchange models coupled with PE dynamics give more realistic results. In particular for YS, we observe a power low decay of wealth distribution.

A dependence modelling study of extreme rainfall in Madeira Island

Science.gov (United States)

Gouveia-Reis, Délia; Guerreiro Lopes, Luiz; Mendonça, Sandra

2016-08-01

The dependence between variables plays a central role in multivariate extremes. In this paper, spatial dependence of Madeira Island's rainfall data is addressed within an extreme value copula approach through an analysis of maximum annual data. The impact of altitude, slope orientation, distance between rain gauge stations and distance from the stations to the sea are investigated for two different periods of time. The results obtained highlight the influence of the island's complex topography on the spatial distribution of extreme rainfall in Madeira Island.

Magneto-transport studies of InAs/GaSb short period superlattices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Broadley, Victoria Jane

2002-01-01

This thesis studies the transport properties of short period semiconducting InAs/GaSb superlattices in the presence of strong electric and magnetic fields applied parallel to the growth axis. Electrical transport parallel to the growth axis occurs through the superlattice miniband, which have widths varying from three to 30meV. Resonant scattering between confined Landau levels and Stark levels is observed at low temperatures (4.2K). In addition LO-phonon assisted scattering between Landau levels is observed in both type-I GaAs/AIAs and type-ll inAs/GaSb superlattices, which are enhanced in the type-ll system due to the strong interband coupling. K·p band structure calculations show that the interband coupling causes the superlattice miniband energy dispersion to be strongly dependent on the in-plane wavevector and the applied magnetic field. For large applied electric fields, where the miniband is split into discrete Stark levels, strong stark-cyclotron resonance (SCR) features are observed, which occur when the Landau level separation equals to the stark level separation. These resonances are enhanced when compared to SCR in type-I superlattices due to the suppression of miniband conduction in higher lying Landau levels. At low electric fields electrical transport through the superlattice miniband yields characteristic miniband transport features, which are modelled using the Esaki-Tsu miniband transport model. Strong electron - LO-phonon scattering is also observed in InAs/GaSb superlattices, where we report the first observation of miniband transport assisted via the emission of LO-phonons between stark levels in adjacent wells. Below 50K thermally activated behaviour is reported and at high magnetic fields (in the quantum limit) complete localisation of carriers is observed. In this regime LO-phonon delocalised transport in also observed. (author)

Modeling Interdependent and Periodic Real-World Action Sequences

Science.gov (United States)

Kurashima, Takeshi; Althoff, Tim; Leskovec, Jure

2018-01-01

Mobile health applications, including those that track activities such as exercise, sleep, and diet, are becoming widely used. Accurately predicting human actions in the real world is essential for targeted recommendations that could improve our health and for personalization of these applications. However, making such predictions is extremely difficult due to the complexities of human behavior, which consists of a large number of potential actions that vary over time, depend on each other, and are periodic. Previous work has not jointly modeled these dynamics and has largely focused on item consumption patterns instead of broader types of behaviors such as eating, commuting or exercising. In this work, we develop a novel statistical model, called TIPAS, for Time-varying, Interdependent, and Periodic Action Sequences. Our approach is based on personalized, multivariate temporal point processes that model time-varying action propensities through a mixture of Gaussian intensities. Our model captures short-term and long-term periodic interdependencies between actions through Hawkes process-based self-excitations. We evaluate our approach on two activity logging datasets comprising 12 million real-world actions (e.g., eating, sleep, and exercise) taken by 20 thousand users over 17 months. We demonstrate that our approach allows us to make successful predictions of future user actions and their timing. Specifically, TIPAS improves predictions of actions, and their timing, over existing methods across multiple datasets by up to 156%, and up to 37%, respectively. Performance improvements are particularly large for relatively rare and periodic actions such as walking and biking, improving over baselines by up to 256%. This demonstrates that explicit modeling of dependencies and periodicities in real-world behavior enables successful predictions of future actions, with implications for modeling human behavior, app personalization, and targeting of health interventions. PMID

Precipitation extremes and their relation to climatic indices in the Pacific Northwest USA

Science.gov (United States)

Zarekarizi, Mahkameh; Rana, Arun; Moradkhani, Hamid

2018-06-01

There has been focus on the influence of climate indices on precipitation extremes in the literature. Current study presents the evaluation of the precipitation-based extremes in Columbia River Basin (CRB) in the Pacific Northwest USA. We first analyzed the precipitation-based extremes using statistically (ten GCMs) and dynamically downscaled (three GCMs) past and future climate projections. Seven precipitation-based indices that help inform about the flood duration/intensity are used. These indices help in attaining first-hand information on spatial and temporal scales for different service sectors including energy, agriculture, forestry etc. Evaluation of these indices is first performed in historical period (1971-2000) followed by analysis of their relation to large scale tele-connections. Further we mapped these indices over the area to evaluate the spatial variation of past and future extremes in downscaled and observational data. The analysis shows that high values of extreme indices are clustered in either western or northern parts of the basin for historical period whereas the northern part is experiencing higher degree of change in the indices for future scenario. The focus is also on evaluating the relation of these extreme indices to climate tele-connections in historical period to understand their relationship with extremes over CRB. Various climate indices are evaluated for their relationship using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Singular Value Decomposition (SVD). Results indicated that, out of 13 climate tele-connections used in the study, CRB is being most affected inversely by East Pacific (EP), Western Pacific (WP), East Atlantic (EA) and North Atlaentic Oscillation (NAO).

Short-range order in alloys of nickel with the elements of group VIII of the periodic table

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khwaja, F.A.

1981-08-01

Experimental measurements of the diffuse X-ray scattering intensity were performed on alloys of Ni with Rh and Os. The atomic short-range order (SRO) parameters αsub(i) and the size-effect parameters βsub(i) were calculated from these measurements. It is established that SRO and size-effect exist in Ni-Rh and Ni-Os alloys analogously as in a few other alloys of Ni with the elements of group VIII of the periodic table. The experimental data was interpreted theoretically by calculating the interaction energies from the pseudo-potentials and the effective valencies of the individual components of the systems studied. It was found that theoretically calculated values of the interaction energies for these alloys are inconsistent with the experimentally determined sign of the SRO parameter. (author)

Spatiotemporal changes in precipitation extremes over Yangtze River basin, China, considering the rainfall shift in the late 1970s

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Tao; Xie, Lian

2016-12-01

Precipitation extremes are the dominated causes for the formation of severe flood disasters at regional and local scales under the background of global climate change. In the present study, five annual extreme precipitation events, including 1, 7 and 30 day annual maximum rainfall and 95th and 97.5th percentile threshold levels, are analyzed relating to the reference period 1960-2011 from 140 meteorological stations over Yangtze River basin (YRB). A generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is applied to fit annual and percentile extreme precipitation events at each station with return periods up to 200 years. The entire time period is divided into preclimatic (preceding climatic) period 1960-1980 and aftclimatic (after climatic) period 1981-2011 by considering distinctly abrupt shift of precipitation regime in the late 1970s across YRB. And the Mann-Kendall trend test is adopted to conduct trend analysis during pre- and aftclimatic periods, respectively, for the purpose of exploring possible increasing/decreasing patterns in precipitation extremes. The results indicate that the increasing trends for return values during aftclimatic period change significantly in time and space in terms of different magnitudes of extreme precipitation, while the stations with significantly positive trends are mainly distributed in the vicinity of the mainstream and major tributaries as well as large lakes, this would result in more tremendous flood disasters in the mid-lower reaches of YRB, especially in southeast coastal regions. The increasing/decreasing linear trends based on annual maximum precipitation are also investigated in pre- and aftclimatic periods, respectively, whereas those changes are not significantly similar to the variations of return values during both subperiods. Moreover, spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation extremes become more uneven and unstable in the second half period over YRB.

Finite-Difference Time-Domain Simulation of Light Propagation in 2D Periodic and Quasi-Periodic Photonic Structures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Dadashzadeh

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Ultra-short pulse is a promising technology for achieving ultra-high data rate transmission which is required to follow the increased demand of data transport over an optical communication system. Therefore, the propagation of such type of pulses and the effects that it may suffer during its transmission through an optical waveguide has received a great deal of attention in the recent years. We provide an overview of recent theoretical developments in a numerical modeling of Maxwell's equations to analyze the propagation of short laser pulses in photonic structures. The process of short light pulse propagation through 2D periodic and quasi-periodic photonic structures is simulated based on Finite-Difference Time-Domain calculations of Maxwell’s equations.

Extreme Energy Events Monitoring report

CERN Document Server

Baimukhamedova, Nigina

2015-01-01

Following paper reflects the progress I made on Summer Student Program within Extreme Energy Events Monitor project I was working on. During 8 week period I managed to build a simple detector system that is capable of triggering events similar to explosions (sudden change in sound levels) and measuring approximate location of the event. Source codes are available upon request and settings described further.

Emotional changes occurring in women in pregnancy, parturition and lying-in period according to factors exerting an effect on a woman during the peripartum period.

Science.gov (United States)

Pięta, Beata; Jurczyk, Mieczysława Urszula; Wszołek, Katarzyna; Opala, Tomasz

2014-01-01

Pregnancy, parturition and childcare, which are important moments in a woman's life, are connected with many emotional states of a future mother, a pregnant woman and a lying-in woman. The perinatal period is the time when the risk of psychological disorders in a pregnant woman may increase by even several times. Objective. The objective of the study was recognition of the main emotional and psychological changes in pregnant women, those in labour and lying-in, according to the factors occurring during the peripartum period. The study was conducted in the form of a survey and covered a group of 108 mothers who were hospitalized in gynaecological-obstetric and obstetric wards in the Karol Marcinkowski Gynaecological-Obstetric University Hospital in Poznań. There are a number of factors which may exert a negative effect on the emotions of women in pregnancy, parturition, and during lying-in. The study showed that there is a close relationship between the occurrence of these factors and emotional states of the mothers after giving birth. Special attention should be given to women in whom already during pregnancy factors arise which may have a negative impact on their mental state. Emotions during pregnancy, parturition and lying-in are often quite extreme, and achieve a high intensity, as well being very variable within a short period of time.

Periodic solutions of dissipative systems revisited

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Górniewicz Lech

2006-01-01

Full Text Available We reprove in an extremely simple way the classical theorem that time periodic dissipative systems imply the existence of harmonic periodic solutions, in the case of uniqueness. We will also show that, in the lack of uniqueness, the existence of harmonics is implied by uniform dissipativity. The localization of starting points and multiplicity of periodic solutions will be established, under suitable additional assumptions, as well. The arguments are based on the application of various asymptotic fixed point theorems of the Lefschetz and Nielsen type.

Periodic solutions of dissipative systems revisited

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lech Górniewicz

2006-05-01

Full Text Available We reprove in an extremely simple way the classical theorem that time periodic dissipative systems imply the existence of harmonic periodic solutions, in the case of uniqueness. We will also show that, in the lack of uniqueness, the existence of harmonics is implied by uniform dissipativity. The localization of starting points and multiplicity of periodic solutions will be established, under suitable additional assumptions, as well. The arguments are based on the application of various asymptotic fixed point theorems of the Lefschetz and Nielsen type.

Sensitivity of UK butterflies to local climatic extremes: which life stages are most at risk?

Science.gov (United States)

McDermott Long, Osgur; Warren, Rachel; Price, Jeff; Brereton, Tom M; Botham, Marc S; Franco, Aldina M A

2017-01-01

There is growing recognition as to the importance of extreme climatic events (ECEs) in determining changes in species populations. In fact, it is often the extent of climate variability that determines a population's ability to persist at a given site. This study examined the impact of ECEs on the resident UK butterfly species (n = 41) over a 37-year period. The study investigated the sensitivity of butterflies to four extremes (drought, extreme precipitation, extreme heat and extreme cold), identified at the site level, across each species' life stages. Variations in the vulnerability of butterflies at the site level were also compared based on three life-history traits (voltinism, habitat requirement and range). This is the first study to examine the effects of ECEs at the site level across all life stages of a butterfly, identifying sensitive life stages and unravelling the role life-history traits play in species sensitivity to ECEs. Butterfly population changes were found to be primarily driven by temperature extremes. Extreme heat was detrimental during overwintering periods and beneficial during adult periods and extreme cold had opposite impacts on both of these life stages. Previously undocumented detrimental effects were identified for extreme precipitation during the pupal life stage for univoltine species. Generalists were found to have significantly more negative associations with ECEs than specialists. With future projections of warmer, wetter winters and more severe weather events, UK butterflies could come under severe pressure given the findings of this study. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2016 British Ecological Society.

MARVELS-1b: A SHORT-PERIOD, BROWN DWARF DESERT CANDIDATE FROM THE SDSS-III MARVELS PLANET SEARCH

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Brian L.; Ge Jian; Fleming, Scott W.; Mahadevan, Suvrath; Sivarani, Thirupathi; Stassun, Keivan G.; Gary, Bruce; Pepper, Joshua; Gaudi, B. Scott; Eastman, Jason D.; Siverd, Robert J.; Barnes, Rory; Laws, Chris; Wisniewski, John P.; Wright, Jason; Ghezzi, Luan; Ogando, Ricardo L. C.; Maia, Marcio A. G.; Da Costa, Luiz Nicolaci; Porto de Mello, G. F.

2011-01-01

We present a new short-period brown dwarf (BD) candidate around the star TYC 1240-00945-1. This candidate was discovered in the first year of the Multi-object APO Radial Velocity Exoplanets Large-area Survey (MARVELS), which is part of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) III, and we designate the BD as MARVELS-1b. MARVELS uses the technique of dispersed fixed-delay interferometery to simultaneously obtain radial velocity (RV) measurements for 60 objects per field using a single, custom-built instrument that is fiber fed from the SDSS 2.5 m telescope. From our 20 RV measurements spread over a ∼370 day time baseline, we derive a Keplerian orbital fit with semi-amplitude K = 2.533 ± 0.025 km s -1 , period P = 5.8953 ± 0.0004 days, and eccentricity consistent with circular. Independent follow-up RV data confirm the orbit. Adopting a mass of 1.37 ± 0.11 M sun for the slightly evolved F9 host star, we infer that the companion has a minimum mass of 28.0 ± 1.5 M Jup , a semimajor axis 0.071 ± 0.002 AU assuming an edge-on orbit, and is probably tidally synchronized. We find no evidence for coherent intrinsic variability of the host star at the period of the companion at levels greater than a few millimagnitudes. The companion has an a priori transit probability of ∼14%. Although we find no evidence for transits, we cannot definitively rule them out for companion radii ∼ Jup .

Extreme Value Analysis of Induced Geoelectric Field in South Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Lotz, S. I.; Danskin, D. W.

2017-10-01

Extreme geomagnetic disturbances occur rarely but can have great impact on technological systems such as power supply networks. Long-term planning for extreme events requires the estimation of event impact for occurrence periods greater than the length of observed data. With this in mind an analysis of extreme geomagnetic events observed in South Africa (middle geomagnetic latitude) is performed over four solar cycles (1974-2015). An algorithm to identify active periods with minimum SYM-H ≤-100 nT is demonstrated. The sum of induced electric field over the course of each event is used to characterize the severity of each active period. It is found that the severity index (accumulated electric field magnitude ΣE) shares a highly linear relationship with accumulated SYM-H over each event. The index ΣE is lognormal distributed, with tail deviating greater than lognormal, confirming heavy-tailed occurrence. A general Pareto distribution is fitted to the tail of the distribution and extrapolated to calculate the return levels of extreme events. Return levels of once in 100 and once in 200 year events are estimated to be 9.4 × 104 mV/km min and 1.09 × 105 mV/km min, respectively. The top three events, in ascending order of severity, are the March 1989 storm, the events of late October 2003, and the April 1994 event—a long interval of coronal-hole driven disturbances, bookended by two intense geomagnetic storms.

Evidence of negative electrorefraction in type-II GaAs/GaAlAs short-period superlattice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shchukin, V A; Ledentsov, N N; Karachinsky, L Ya; Novikov, I I; Egorov, A Yu; Blokhin, S A; Maximov, M V; Gordeev, N Yu; Kulagina, M M; Ustinov, V M

2015-01-01

A type-II GaAs/GaAlAs short-period superlattice (SPSL) used as an electro-optic medium for the spectral range 820–850 nm is studied in a vertical microcavity geometry. SPSL is sandwiched between two GaAlAs distributed Bragg reflectors. Optical power reflectance (OR) spectra are measured as a function of applied reverse bias at different tilt angles and temperatures. All spectra reveal a blue shift of the reflectivity dip upon applied voltage which evidences a negative electrorefraction of the electro-optic medium. The shift enhances up to ∼0.6 nm once the exciton resonance is brought close to the wavelength of the reflectivity dip. As opposed to those modulators based on quantum–confined Stark effect, no increased absorption is observed at an applied bias, because the integrated intensity of the reflectivity dip in the OR spectra is virtually constant. This indicates a low absorption loss with applied bias and consequently a high potential for the increased dynamic range of the related modulator. (paper)

Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017

Science.gov (United States)

van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; van der Wiel, Karin; Sebastian, Antonia; Singh, Roop; Arrighi, Julie; Otto, Friederike; Haustein, Karsten; Li, Sihan; Vecchi, Gabriel; Cullen, Heidi

2017-12-01

During August 25-30, 2017, Hurricane Harvey stalled over Texas and caused extreme precipitation, particularly over Houston and the surrounding area on August 26-28. This resulted in extensive flooding with over 80 fatalities and large economic costs. It was an extremely rare event: the return period of the highest observed three-day precipitation amount, 1043.4 mm 3dy-1 at Baytown, is more than 9000 years (97.5% one-sided confidence interval) and return periods exceeded 1000 yr (750 mm 3dy-1) over a large area in the current climate. Observations since 1880 over the region show a clear positive trend in the intensity of extreme precipitation of between 12% and 22%, roughly two times the increase of the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere expected for 1 °C warming according to the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. This would indicate that the moisture flux was increased by both the moisture content and stronger winds or updrafts driven by the heat of condensation of the moisture. We also analysed extreme rainfall in the Houston area in three ensembles of 25 km resolution models. The first also shows 2 × CC scaling, the second 1 × CC scaling and the third did not have a realistic representation of extreme rainfall on the Gulf Coast. Extrapolating these results to the 2017 event, we conclude that global warming made the precipitation about 15% (8%-19%) more intense, or equivalently made such an event three (1.5-5) times more likely. This analysis makes clear that extreme rainfall events along the Gulf Coast are on the rise. And while fortifying Houston to fully withstand the impact of an event as extreme as Hurricane Harvey may not be economically feasible, it is critical that information regarding the increasing risk of extreme rainfall events in general should be part of the discussion about future improvements to Houston’s flood protection system.

Analysis of extreme sea level along the east coast of India

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Unnikrishnan, A.S.; Sundar, D.; Blackman, D.

the r-largest annual maximum method, the joint probability method (JPM) as well as the revised joint probability method (RJPM) was performed to estimate the return periods of extreme sea level. JPM gave an underestimate of levels for long return periods...

Assessment of the Long Term Trends in Extreme Heat Events and the Associated Health Impacts in the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Bell, J.; Rennie, J.; Kunkel, K.; Herring, S.; Cullen, H. M.

2017-12-01

Land surface air temperature products have been essential for monitoring the evolution of the climate system. Before a temperature dataset is included in such reports, it is important that non-climatic influences be removed or changed so the dataset is considered homogenous. These inhomogeneities include changes in station location, instrumentation and observing practices. While many homogenized products exist on the monthly time scale, few daily products exist, due to the complication of removing breakpoints that are truly inhomogeneous rather than solely by chance (for example, sharp changes due to synoptic conditions). Recently, a sub monthly homogenized dataset has been developed using data and software provided by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). Homogeneous daily data are useful for identification and attribution of extreme heat events over a period of time. Projections of increasing temperatures are expected to result in corresponding increases in the frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme heat events. It is also established that extreme heat events can have significant public health impacts, including short-term increases in mortality and morbidity. In addition, it can exacerbate chronic health conditions in vulnerable populations, including renal and cardiovascular issues. To understand how heat events impact a specific population, it will be important to connect observations on the duration and intensity of extreme heat events with health impacts data including insurance claims and hospital admissions data. This presentation will explain the methodology to identify extreme heat events, provide a climatology of heat event onset, length and severity, and explore a case study of an anomalous heat event with available health data.

Tools used by the insurance industry to assess risk from hydroclimatic extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Higgs, Stephanie; McMullan, Caroline

2016-04-01

Probabilistic catastrophe models are widely used within the insurance industry to assess and price the risk of natural hazards to individual residences through to portfolios of millions of properties. Over the relatively short period that catastrophe models have been available (almost 30 years), the insurance industry has built up a financial resilience to key natural hazards in certain areas (e.g. US tropical cyclone, European extra-tropical cyclone and flood). However, due the rapidly expanding global population and increase in wealth, together with uncertainties in the behaviour of meteorological phenomena introduced by climate change, the domain in which natural hazards impact society is growing. As a result, the insurance industry faces new challenges in assessing the risk and uncertainty from natural hazards. As a catastrophe modelling company, AIR Worldwide has a toolbox of options available to help the insurance industry assess extreme climatic events and their associated uncertainty. Here we discuss several of these tools: from helping analysts understand how uncertainty is inherently built in to probabilistic catastrophe models, to understanding alternative stochastic catalogs for tropical cyclone based on climate conditioning. Through the use of stochastic extreme disaster events such as those provided through AIR's catalogs or through the Lloyds of London marketplace (RDS's) to provide useful benchmarks for the loss probability exceedence and tail-at-risk metrics outputted from catastrophe models; to the visualisation of 1000+ year event footprints and hazard intensity maps. Ultimately the increased transparency of catastrophe models and flexibility of a software platform that allows for customisation of modelled and non-modelled risks will drive a greater understanding of extreme hydroclimatic events within the insurance industry.

Controls on fluvial metamorphosis during global warming at the Paleocene-Eocene boundary (56 Ma) in Spain: extreme droughts, extreme floods or both?

Science.gov (United States)

Castelltort, Sebastien; Chen, Chen; Guerit, Laure; Foreman, Brady; Paola, Chris; Adatte, Thierry

2017-04-01

How does global warming change the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events? The response to this question is partly preserved in the geological record. 56 Ma ago, global temperatures increased during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), leading to a major biotic turnover, but how this event affected the nature of extreme events remains unknown. On several continents, fluvial systems with sinuous channels within fine-grained floodplains suddenly transformed at the P-E boundary into apparently coarser-grained braid plains with frequent lateral migrations, washing their muddy floodplains to the seas. This landscape transformation has been related to aridification and intensification of precipitation allowing transport of coarser material as a result of P-E global warming, with important implications for predicting the consequences of current global change. Here we test this hypothesis by quantifying the magnitude of grain size change and flow depth at a representative P-E locality in Northern Spain. We find that the size of pebbles in transport and flow depth remained similar to, or even smaller than, pre-PETM conditions. This suggests that, if more seasonal and extreme precipitation occurred, they are not necessarily borne out in the predicted deeper flow depths and coarser grain sizes, but rather trigger a shift to multiple active channels. However, an alternative or complementary explanation may rest in pollen data found in coeval marine records and which document a dramatic vegetation shift from permanent conifer forests prior to the crisis into periodic vegetation in brief periods of rain during the hyperthermal episode. Such change induced by long periods of intense droughts, could have enhanced erodibility of channel banks by decreasing root-controlled cohesion of fine-grained floodplains and interfluves, promoting their lateral mobility and the observed fluvial metamorphosis. Thus, although water is regarded as the main agent sculpting

Improving the Statistical Modeling of the TRMM Extreme Precipitation Monitoring System

Science.gov (United States)

Demirdjian, L.; Zhou, Y.; Huffman, G. J.

2016-12-01

This project improves upon an existing extreme precipitation monitoring system based on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) daily product (3B42) using new statistical models. The proposed system utilizes a regional modeling approach, where data from similar grid locations are pooled to increase the quality and stability of the resulting model parameter estimates to compensate for the short data record. The regional frequency analysis is divided into two stages. In the first stage, the region defined by the TRMM measurements is partitioned into approximately 27,000 non-overlapping clusters using a recursive k-means clustering scheme. In the second stage, a statistical model is used to characterize the extreme precipitation events occurring in each cluster. Instead of utilizing the block-maxima approach used in the existing system, where annual maxima are fit to the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) probability distribution at each cluster separately, the present work adopts the peak-over-threshold (POT) method of classifying points as extreme if they exceed a pre-specified threshold. Theoretical considerations motivate the use of the Generalized-Pareto (GP) distribution for fitting threshold exceedances. The fitted parameters can be used to construct simple and intuitive average recurrence interval (ARI) maps which reveal how rare a particular precipitation event is given its spatial location. The new methodology eliminates much of the random noise that was produced by the existing models due to a short data record, producing more reasonable ARI maps when compared with NOAA's long-term Climate Prediction Center (CPC) ground based observations. The resulting ARI maps can be useful for disaster preparation, warning, and management, as well as increased public awareness of the severity of precipitation events. Furthermore, the proposed methodology can be applied to various other extreme climate records.

Combining Radar and Daily Precipitation Data to Estimate Meaningful Sub-daily Precipitation Extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Pegram, G. G. S.; Bardossy, A.

2016-12-01

Short duration extreme rainfalls are important for design. The purpose of this presentation is not to improve the day by day estimation of precipitation, but to obtain reasonable statistics for the subdaily extremes at gauge locations. We are interested specifically in daily and sub-daily extreme values of precipitation at gauge locations. We do not employ the common procedure of using time series of control station to determine the missing data values in a target. We are interested in individual rare events, not sequences. The idea is to use radar to disaggregate daily totals to sub-daily amounts. In South Arica, an S-band radar operated relatively continuously at Bethlehem from 1998 to 2003, whose scan at 1.5 km above ground [CAPPI] overlapped a dense (10 km spacing) set of 45 pluviometers recording in the same 6-year period. Using this valuable set of data, we are only interested in rare extremes, therefore small to medium values of rainfall depth were neglected, leaving 12 days of ranked daily maxima in each set per year, whose sum typically comprised about 50% of each annual rainfall total. The method presented here uses radar for disaggregating daily gauge totals in subdaily intervals down to 15 minutes in order to extract the maxima of sub-hourly through to daily rainfall at each of 37 selected radar pixels [1 km square in plan] which contained one of the 45 pluviometers not masked out by the radar foot-print. The pluviometer data were aggregated to daily totals, to act as if they were daily read gauges; their only other task was to help in the cross-validation exercise. The extrema were obtained as quantiles by ordering the 12 daily maxima of each interval per year. The unusual and novel goal was not to obtain the reproduction of the precipitation matching in space and time, but to obtain frequency distributions of the gauge and radar extremes, by matching their ranks, which we found to be stable and meaningful in cross-validation tests. We provide and

Effect of cause of iliac vein stenosis and extent of thrombus in the lower extremity on patency of iliac venous stent placed after catheter-directed thrombolysis of acute deep venous thrombosis in the lower extremity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jung, Sung Il; Choi, Young Ho; Yoon, Chang Jin; Lee, Min Woo; Chung, Jin Wook; Park, Jae Hyung

2003-01-01

To assess the CT findings of acute deep venous thrombosis (DVT) in a lower extremity prior to catheter-directed thrombolysis, and to evaluate their relevance to the patency of an iliac venous stent placed with the help of CT after catheter-directed thrombolysis of DVT. Fourteen patients [M:F=3:11; age, 33-68 (mean, 50.1) years] with acute symptomatic DVD of a lower extremity underwent CT before and after catheter-directed thrombolysis using an iliac venous stent. The mean duration of clinical symptoms was 5.0 (range, 1-14 days. The CT findings prior to thrombolysis were evaluated in terms of their anatomic cause and the extent of the thrombus, and in all patients, the patency of the iliac venous stent was assessed at CT performed during a follow-up period lasting 6-31 (mean, 18.9) months. All patients were assigned to the patent stent group (n=9) or the occluded stent group (n=5). In the former, the anatomic cause of patency included typical iliac vein compression (May-Thurner syndrome) (n=9), and a relatively short segmental thrombus occurring between the common iliac and the popliteal vein (n=8). Thrombi occurred in the iliac vein (n=3), between the common iliac and the femoral vein (n=3), and between the common iliac and the popliteal vein (n=2). In one case, a relatively long segmental thrombus occurred between the common iliac vein and the calf vein. In the occluded stent group, anatomic causes included atypical iliac vein compression (n=3) and a relatively long segmental thrombus between the common iliac and the calf vein (n=4). Typical iliac vein compression (May-Thurner syndrome) occurred in two cases, and a relatively short segmental thrombus between the external iliac and the common femoral vein in one. Factors which can affect the patency of an iliac venous stent positioned after catheter-directed thrombolysis are the anatomic cause of the stenosis, and the extent of a thrombus revealed at CT of acute DVT and occurring in a lower extremity prior to

Effect of cause of iliac vein stenosis and extent of thrombus in the lower extremity on patency of iliac venous stent placed after catheter-directed thrombolysis of acute deep venous thrombosis in the lower extremity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jung, Sung Il; Choi, Young Ho; Yoon, Chang Jin; Lee, Min Woo; Chung, Jin Wook; Park, Jae Hyung [College of Medicine, Seoul National Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2003-10-01

To assess the CT findings of acute deep venous thrombosis (DVT) in a lower extremity prior to catheter-directed thrombolysis, and to evaluate their relevance to the patency of an iliac venous stent placed with the help of CT after catheter-directed thrombolysis of DVT. Fourteen patients [M:F=3:11; age, 33-68 (mean, 50.1) years] with acute symptomatic DVD of a lower extremity underwent CT before and after catheter-directed thrombolysis using an iliac venous stent. The mean duration of clinical symptoms was 5.0 (range, 1-14 days. The CT findings prior to thrombolysis were evaluated in terms of their anatomic cause and the extent of the thrombus, and in all patients, the patency of the iliac venous stent was assessed at CT performed during a follow-up period lasting 6-31 (mean, 18.9) months. All patients were assigned to the patent stent group (n=9) or the occluded stent group (n=5). In the former, the anatomic cause of patency included typical iliac vein compression (May-Thurner syndrome) (n=9), and a relatively short segmental thrombus occurring between the common iliac and the popliteal vein (n=8). Thrombi occurred in the iliac vein (n=3), between the common iliac and the femoral vein (n=3), and between the common iliac and the popliteal vein (n=2). In one case, a relatively long segmental thrombus occurred between the common iliac vein and the calf vein. In the occluded stent group, anatomic causes included atypical iliac vein compression (n=3) and a relatively long segmental thrombus between the common iliac and the calf vein (n=4). Typical iliac vein compression (May-Thurner syndrome) occurred in two cases, and a relatively short segmental thrombus between the external iliac and the common femoral vein in one. Factors which can affect the patency of an iliac venous stent positioned after catheter-directed thrombolysis are the anatomic cause of the stenosis, and the extent of a thrombus revealed at CT of acute DVT and occurring in a lower extremity prior to

Liquid Water Restricts Habitability in Extreme Deserts

Science.gov (United States)

Cockell, Charles S.; Brown, Sarah; Landenmark, Hanna; Samuels, Toby; Siddall, Rebecca; Wadsworth, Jennifer

2017-04-01

Liquid water is a requirement for biochemistry, yet under some circumstances it is deleterious to life. Here, we show that liquid water reduces the upper temperature survival limit for two extremophilic photosynthetic microorganisms (Gloeocapsa and Chroococcidiopsis spp.) by greater than 40°C under hydrated conditions compared to desiccated conditions. Under hydrated conditions, thermal stress causes protein inactivation as shown by the fluorescein diacetate assay. The presence of water was also found to enhance the deleterious effects of freeze-thaw in Chroococcidiopsis sp. In the presence of water, short-wavelength UV radiation more effectively kills Gloeocapsa sp. colonies, which we hypothesize is caused by factors including the greater penetration of UV radiation into hydrated colonies compared to desiccated colonies. The data predict that deserts where maximum thermal stress or irradiation occurs in conjunction with the presence of liquid water may be less habitable to some organisms than more extreme arid deserts where organisms can dehydrate prior to being exposed to these extremes, thus minimizing thermal and radiation damage. Life in extreme deserts is poised between the deleterious effects of the presence and the lack of liquid water.

Perspectives for short timescale variability studies with Gaia

Science.gov (United States)

Roelens, M.; Eyer, L.; Mowlavi, N.; Lecoeur-Taïbi, I.; Rimoldini, L.; Blanco-Cuaresma, S.; Palaversa, L.; Süveges, M.; Charnas, J.; Wevers, T.

2017-12-01

We assess the potential of Gaia for detecting and characterizing short timescale variables, i.e. at timescale from a few seconds to a dozen hours, through extensive light-curve simulations for various short timescale variable types, including both periodic and non-periodic variability. We evidence that the variogram analysis applied to Gaia photometry should enable to detect such fast variability phenomena, down to amplitudes of a few millimagnitudes, with limited contamination from longer timescale variables or constant sources. This approach also gives valuable information on the typical timescale(s) of the considered variation, which could complement results of classical period search methods, and help prepare ground-based follow-up of the Gaia short timescale candidates.

Magnetic Activity and Period Variation Studies of the Short-period Eclipsing Binaries. II. V1101 Her, AD Phe, and NSV 455 (J011636.15-394955.7)

Science.gov (United States)

Pi, Qing-feng; Zhang, Li-yun; Bi, Shao-lan; Han, Xianming L.; Wang, Dai-mei; Lu, Hong-peng

2017-12-01

In this paper, we present new BVRI light curves of short-period contact eclipsing binaries V1101 Her and AD Phe from our observations carried out from 2014 to 2015 using the SARA KP and SARA CT telescopes. There is an eclipsing binary located at α(2000) = 01h16m36.ˢ15 and δ(2000) = -39°49‧55.″7 in the field of view of AD Phe. We derived an updated ephemeris and found there a cyclic variation overlaying a continuous period increase (V1101 Her) and decrease (AD Phe). This kind of cyclic variation may be attributed to the light time effect via the presence of the third body or magnetic activity cycle. The orbital period increase suggests that V1101 Her is undergoing a mass-transfer from the primary to the secondary component (dM 1/dt = 2.64(±0.11) × 10-6 M ⊙ yr-1) with the third body (P 3 = 13.9(±1.9) years), or 2.81(±0.07) × 10-6 M ⊙ yr-1 for an increase andmagnetic cycle (12.4(±0.5) years). The long-term period decrease suggests that AD Phe is undergoing a mass-transfer from the secondary component to the primary component at a rate of -8.04(±0.09) × 10-8 M ⊙ yr-1 for a period decrease and the third body (P 3 = 56.2(±0.8) years), or -7.11(±0.04) × 10-8 M ⊙ yr-1 for a decrease and magnetic cycle (50.3(±0.5) years). We determined their orbital and geometrical parameters. For AD Phe, we simultaneously analyzed our BVRI light curves and the spectroscopic observations obtained by Duerbeck & Rucinski. The spectral type of V1101 Her was classified as G0 ± 2V by LAMOST stellar spectra survey. The asymmetry of the R-band light curve of AD Phe obtained by McFarlane & Hilditch in 1987 is explained by a cool spot on the primary component.

Comparison on the Analysis on PM10 Data based on Average and Extreme Series

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohd Amin Nor Azrita

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The main concern in environmental issue is on extreme phenomena (catastrophic instead of common events. However, most statistical approaches are concerned primarily with the centre of a distribution or on the average value rather than the tail of the distribution which contains the extreme observations. The concept of extreme value theory affords attention to the tails of distribution where standard models are proved unreliable to analyse extreme series. High level of particulate matter (PM10 is a common environmental problem which causes various impacts to human health and material damages. If the main concern is on extreme events, then extreme value analysis provides the best result with significant evidence. The monthly average and monthly maxima PM10 data for Perlis from 2003 to 2014 were analysed. Forecasting for average data is made by Holt-Winters method while return level determine the predicted value of extreme events that occur on average once in a certain period. The forecasting from January 2015 to December 2016 for average data found that the highest forecasted value is 58.18 (standard deviation 18.45 on February 2016 while return level achieved 253.76 units for 24 months (2015-2016 return periods.

Design, fabrication, and characterization of high-efficiency extreme ultraviolet diffusers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Naulleau, Patrick P.; Liddle, J. Alexander; Salmassi, Farhad; Anderson, Erik H.; Gullikson, Eric M.

2004-02-19

As the development of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography progresses, interest grows in the extension of traditional optical components to the EUV regime. The strong absorption of EUV by most materials and its extremely short wavelength, however, makes it very difficult to implement many components that are commonplace in the longer wavelength regimes. One such example is the diffuser often implemented with ordinary ground glass in the visible light regime. Here we demonstrate the fabrication of reflective EUV diffusers with high efficiency within a controllable bandwidth. Using these techniques we have fabricated diffusers with efficiencies exceeding 10% within a moderate angular single-sided bandwidth of approximately 0.06 radians.

Impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

The analysis of the frequency of rainy days, rain days and heavy rainfall days as well as one-day extreme rainfall and return period has been carried out in this study to observe the impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk in India. The frequency of heavy rainfall events are decreasing in major parts ...

Importance of cutaneous silent period in fibromyalgia and its relationship with disease characteristics, psychological disorders and quality of life of patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Umay, Ebru; Ulas, Umit; Unlu, Ece; Akgun, Hakan; Cakci, Aytul; Odabasi, Zeki

2013-01-01

Cutaneous silent period (CSP) is an inhibitory spinal protective reflex and its afferents consist of A-delta nerve fibers. We aimed to evaluate patients with fibromyalgia (FM) and healthy controls to determine any differences between the groups in terms of CSP duration and latency, and if present, to determine whether there is any relationship with disease characteristics, psychological disorders and quality of life. Thirty-two patients with FM and 32 healthy volunteers were included in the study. The patient and control groups were compared in terms of CSP latency and duration in both upper and lower extremities. Disease characteristics, psychological disorders and quality of life of patients were assessed using the Fibromyalgia Impact Questionnaire (FIQ) and Short Form-36 (SF-36). Patients with CSP measurements equal to or lower than those of the control group were compared with those with higher values than controls in terms of disease characteristics, psychological status and quality of life. Significantly prolonged CSP latencies in both upper and lower extremities were determined in patients compared to controls. We found that prolongation of CSP latency in the lower extremity is associated with disease severity and functional disability. CSP latencies in both upper and lower extremities in patients with FM are longer than in healthy volunteers. Moreover, prolongation of CSP latency in the lower extremity is associated with disease severity and physical functional disability.

Extreme-Ultraviolet Vortices from a Free-Electron Laser

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Primož Rebernik Ribič

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Extreme-ultraviolet vortices may be exploited to steer the magnetic properties of nanoparticles, increase the resolution in microscopy, and gain insight into local symmetry and chirality of a material; they might even be used to increase the bandwidth in long-distance space communications. However, in contrast to the generation of vortex beams in the infrared and visible spectral regions, production of intense, extreme-ultraviolet and x-ray optical vortices still remains a challenge. Here, we present an in-situ and an ex-situ technique for generating intense, femtosecond, coherent optical vortices at a free-electron laser in the extreme ultraviolet. The first method takes advantage of nonlinear harmonic generation in a helical undulator, producing vortex beams at the second harmonic without the need for additional optical elements, while the latter one relies on the use of a spiral zone plate to generate a focused, micron-size optical vortex with a peak intensity approaching 10^{14}  W/cm^{2}, paving the way to nonlinear optical experiments with vortex beams at short wavelengths.

The use of historical information for regional frequency analysis of extreme skew surge

Science.gov (United States)

Frau, Roberto; Andreewsky, Marc; Bernardara, Pietro

2018-03-01

The design of effective coastal protections requires an adequate estimation of the annual occurrence probability of rare events associated with a return period up to 103 years. Regional frequency analysis (RFA) has been proven to be an applicable way to estimate extreme events by sorting regional data into large and spatially distributed datasets. Nowadays, historical data are available to provide new insight on past event estimation. The utilisation of historical information would increase the precision and the reliability of regional extreme's quantile estimation. However, historical data are from significant extreme events that are not recorded by tide gauge. They usually look like isolated data and they are different from continuous data from systematic measurements of tide gauges. This makes the definition of the duration of our observations period complicated. However, the duration of the observation period is crucial for the frequency estimation of extreme occurrences. For this reason, we introduced here the concept of credible duration. The proposed RFA method (hereinafter referenced as FAB, from the name of the authors) allows the use of historical data together with systematic data, which is a result of the use of the credible duration concept.

Temperature extremes in Europe: mechanisms and responses to climatic change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cattiaux, Julien

2010-01-01

Europe witnessed a spate of record-breaking warm seasons during the 2000's. As illustrated by the devastating heat-wave of the summer 2003, these episodes induced strong societal and environmental impacts. Such occurrence of exceptional events over a relatively short time period raised up many questionings in the present context of climate change. In particular, can recent temperature extremes be considered as 'previews' of future climate conditions? Do they result from an increasing temperature variability? These questions constitute the main motivations of this thesis. Thus, our work aims to contribute to the understanding of physical mechanisms responsible for seasonal temperature extremes in Europe, in order to anticipate their future statistical characteristics. Involved processes are assessed by both statistical data-analysis of observations and climate projections and regional modeling experiments. First we show that while the inter-annual European temperature variability appears driven by disturbances in the North-Atlantic dynamics, the recent warming is likely to be dissociated with potential circulation changes. This inconsistency climaxes during the exceptionally mild autumn of 2006, whose temperature anomaly is only half explained by the atmospheric flow. Recent warm surface conditions in the North-Atlantic ocean seem to substantially contribute to the European warming in autumn-winter, through the establishment of advective and radiative processes. In spring-summer, since both advection by the westerlies and Atlantic warming are reduced, more local processes appear predominant (e.g. soil moisture, clouds, aerosols). Then the issue of future evolution of the relationship between North-Atlantic dynamics and European temperatures is addressed, based on climate projections of the International Panel on Climate Change. Multi-model analysis, using both flow-analogues and weather regimes methods, show that the inconsistency noticed over recent decades is

Drought analysis and short-term forecast in the Aison River Basin (Greece

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Kavalieratou

2012-05-01

Full Text Available A combined regional drought analysis and forecast is elaborated and applied to the Aison River Basin (Greece. The historical frequency, duration and severity were estimated using the standardized precipitation index (SPI computed on variable time scales, while short-term drought forecast was investigated by means of 3-D loglinear models. A quasi-association model with homogenous diagonal effect was proposed to fit the observed frequencies of class transitions of the SPI values computed on the 12-month time scale. Then, an adapted submodel was selected for each data set through the backward elimination method. The analysis and forecast of the drought class transition probabilities were based on the odds of the expected frequencies, estimated by these submodels, and the respective confidence intervals of these odds. The parsimonious forecast models fitted adequately the observed data. Results gave a comprehensive insight on drought behavior, highlighting a dominant drought period (1988–1991 with extreme drought events and revealing, in most cases, smooth drought class transitions. The proposed approach can be an efficient tool in regional water resources management and short-term drought warning, especially in irrigated districts.

The results of bone deformity correction using a spider frame with web-based software for lower extremity long bone deformities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tekin Ali Çağrı

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Aim: To present the functional and radiological results and evaluate the effectiveness of a computer-assisted external fixator (spider frame in patients with lower extremity shortness and deformity. Materials and methods: The study comprised 17 patients (14 male, 3 female who were treated for lower extremity long bone deformity and shortness between 2012 and 2015 using a spider frame. The procedure’s level of difficulty was determined preoperatively using the Paley Scale. Postoperatively, the results for the patients who underwent tibial operations were evaluated using the Paley criteria modified by ASAMI, and the results for the patients who underwent femoral operations were evaluated according to the Paley scoring system. The evaluations were made by calculating the External Fixator and Distraction indexes. Results: The mean age of the patients was 24.58 years (range, 5–51 years. The spider frame was applied to the femur in 10 patients and to the tibia in seven. The mean follow-up period was 15 months (range, 6–31 months from the operation day, and the mean amount of lengthening was 3.0 cm (range, 1–6 cm. The mean duration of fixator application was 202.7 days (range, 104–300 days. The mean External Fixator Index was 98 days/cm (range, 42–265 days/cm. The mean Distraction Index was 10.49 days/cm (range, 10–14 days/cm. Conclusion: The computer-assisted external fixator system (spider frame achieves single-stage correction in cases of both deformity and shortness. The system can be applied easily, and because of its high-tech software, it offers the possibility of postoperative treatment of the deformity.

The physiological period length of the human circadian clock in vivo is directly proportional to period in human fibroblasts.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lucia Pagani

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Diurnal behavior in humans is governed by the period length of a circadian clock in the suprachiasmatic nuclei of the brain hypothalamus. Nevertheless, the cell-intrinsic mechanism of this clock is present in most cells of the body. We have shown previously that for individuals of extreme chronotype ("larks" and "owls", clock properties measured in human fibroblasts correlated with extreme diurnal behavior. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In this study, we have measured circadian period in human primary fibroblasts taken from normal individuals and, for the first time, compared it directly with physiological period measured in vivo in the same subjects. Human physiological period length was estimated via the secretion pattern of the hormone melatonin in two different groups of sighted subjects and one group of totally blind subjects, each using different methods. Fibroblast period length was measured via cyclical expression of a lentivirally delivered circadian reporter. Within each group, a positive linear correlation was observed between circadian period length in physiology and in fibroblast gene expression. Interestingly, although blind individuals showed on average the same fibroblast clock properties as sighted ones, their physiological periods were significantly longer. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We conclude that the period of human circadian behaviour is mostly driven by cellular clock properties in normal individuals and can be approximated by measurement in peripheral cells such as fibroblasts. Based upon differences among sighted and blind subjects, we also speculate that period can be modified by prolonged unusual conditions such as the total light deprivation of blindness.

Predictability of Extreme Precipitations Over the Conterminous us, 1949-2010

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, M.; Felzer, B. S.

2015-12-01

Extreme precipitation plays an important role in regulating ecosystem services. Precipitation extremes vary in magnitude and duration both spatially and temporally, making it one of the most challenging climate variables to comprehend and predict. Using information theory, we provide an attempt to improve understanding of the predictability of extreme precipitation in the conterminous U.S. over the period of 1949-2010. We define predictability as the recurrent likelihood of patterns described by the measures of constancy and contingency, with the former describing the inter-annual variability and the latter describing the seasonality. This study shows that there are clear west-east contrasts of predictability over the U.S. landscape, with a generally decreasing gradient from the Northeast to the Southwest for intensity-based extremes and a generally increasing gradient from the West to the East for duration-based extremes. We further identify spatially heterogeneous patterns of temporal changes in predictability over the investigated timeframe. Finally, it is evident that constancy plays a heavier role in regulating predictability increases for both intensity and duration-based extremes and for predictability decreases for duration-based extremes, while contingency contributes equally with constancy to determining the decreases in predictability for intensity-based extremes.

Spectral characteristics of the nearshore waves off Paradip, India during monsoon and extreme events

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Aboobacker, V.M.; Vethamony, P.; Sudheesh, K.; Rupali, S.P.

and directional wave energy spectra distinctly separate out the wave conditions that prevailed off Paradip in the monsoon, fair weather and extreme weather events during the above period. Frequency-energy spectra during extreme events are single peaked...

Arctic daily temperature and precipitation extremes: Observed and simulated physical behavior

Science.gov (United States)

Glisan, Justin Michael

Simulations using a six-member ensemble of Pan-Arctic WRF (PAW) were produced on two Arctic domains with 50-km resolution to analyze precipitation and temperature extremes for various periods. The first study used a domain developed for the Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM). Initial simulations revealed deep atmospheric circulation biases over the northern Pacific Ocean, manifested in pressure, geopotential height, and temperature fields. Possible remedies to correct these large biases, such as modifying the physical domain or using different initial/boundary conditions, were unsuccessful. Spectral (interior) nudging was introduced as a way of constraining the model to be more consistent with observed behavior. However, such control over numerical model behavior raises concerns over how much nudging may affect unforced variability and extremes. Strong nudging may reduce or filter out extreme events, since the nudging pushes the model toward a relatively smooth, large-scale state. The question then becomes---what is the minimum spectral nudging needed to correct biases while not limiting the simulation of extreme events? To determine this, we use varying degrees of spectral nudging, using WRF's standard nudging as a reference point during January and July 2007. Results suggest that there is a marked lack of sensitivity to varying degrees of nudging. Moreover, given that nudging is an artificial forcing applied in the model, an important outcome of this work is that nudging strength apparently can be considerably smaller than WRF's standard strength and still produce reliable simulations. In the remaining studies, we used the same PAW setup to analyze daily precipitation extremes simulated over a 19-year period on the CORDEX Arctic domain for winter and summer. We defined these seasons as the three-month period leading up to and including the climatological sea ice maximum and minimum, respectively. Analysis focused on four North American regions defined using

Operational experience of extreme wind penetrations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Estanqueiro, Ana [INETI/LNEG - National Laboratory for Energy and Geology, Lisbon (Portugal); Mateus, Carlos B. [Instituto de Meteorologia, Lisboa (Portugal); Pestana, Rui [Redes Energeticas Nacionais (REN), Lisboa (Portugal)

2010-07-01

This paper reports the operational experience from the Portuguese Power System during the 2009/2010 winter months when record wind penerations were observed: the instantaneous wind power penetration peaked at 70% of consumption during no-load periods and the wind energy accounted for more than 50% of the energy consumed for a large period. The regulation measures taken by the TSO are presented in the paper, together with the additional reserves operated for added system security. Information on the overall power system behavior under such extreme long-term wind power penetrations will also be addressed. (org.)

Modeling nonstationary extreme wave heights in present and future climates of Greek Seas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Panagiota Galiatsatou

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In this study the generalized extreme value (GEV distribution function was used to assess nonstationarity in annual maximum wave heights for selected locations in the Greek Seas, both in the present and future climates. The available significant wave height data were divided into groups corresponding to the present period (1951–2000, a first future period (2001–2050, and a second future period (2051–2100. For each time period, the parameters of the GEV distribution were specified as functions of time-varying covariates and estimated using the conditional density network (CDN. For each location and selected time period, a total number of 29 linear and nonlinear models were fitted to the wave data, for a given combination of covariates. The covariates used in the GEV-CDN models consisted of wind fields resulting from the Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3 developed by the International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP with a spatial resolution of 10 km × 10 km, after being processed using principal component analysis (PCA. The results obtained from the best fitted models in the present and future periods for each location were compared, revealing different patterns of relationships between wind components and extreme wave height quantiles in different parts of the Greek Seas and different periods. The analysis demonstrates an increase of extreme wave heights in the first future period as compared with the present period, causing a significant threat to Greek coastal areas in the North Aegean Sea and the Ionian Sea.

IUE spectrophotometry of the DA4 primary in the short-period white dwarf-red dwarf spectroscopic binary Case 1

Science.gov (United States)

Sion, E. M.; Guinan, E. F.; Wesemael, F.

1984-01-01

Low-resolution ultraviolet International Ultraviolet Explorer spectra of the DA white dwarf Case 1 are presented. The spectra show the presence of the 1400 A feature, already discovered in several other DA stars, and of a shallower trough in the 1550-1700 A range. A model atmosphere analysis of the ultraviolet energy distribution of the Ly-alpha red wing yields T(e) = 13,000 + or - 500 K. Possible interpretations of the 1400 A feature are reviewed. Case 1 is the coolest white dwarf found in a short-period, detached white dwarf-red dwarf binary, and its cooling time is consistent with estimates of the efficiency of angular momentum removal mechanisms in the phases subsequent to common envelope binary evolution.

Use of historical information in extreme storm surges frequency analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Hamdi, Yasser; Duluc, Claire-Marie; Deville, Yves; Bardet, Lise; Rebour, Vincent

2013-04-01

The prevention of storm surge flood risks is critical for protection and design of coastal facilities to very low probabilities of failure. The effective protection requires the use of a statistical analysis approach having a solid theoretical motivation. Relating extreme storm surges to their frequency of occurrence using probability distributions has been a common issue since 1950s. The engineer needs to determine the storm surge of a given return period, i.e., the storm surge quantile or design storm surge. Traditional methods for determining such a quantile have been generally based on data from the systematic record alone. However, the statistical extrapolation, to estimate storm surges corresponding to high return periods, is seriously contaminated by sampling and model uncertainty if data are available for a relatively limited period. This has motivated the development of approaches to enlarge the sample extreme values beyond the systematic period. The nonsystematic data occurred before the systematic period is called historical information. During the last three decades, the value of using historical information as a nonsystematic data in frequency analysis has been recognized by several authors. The basic hypothesis in statistical modeling of historical information is that a perception threshold exists and that during a giving historical period preceding the period of tide gauging, all exceedances of this threshold have been recorded. Historical information prior to the systematic records may arise from high-sea water marks left by extreme surges on the coastal areas. It can also be retrieved from archives, old books, earliest newspapers, damage reports, unpublished written records and interviews with local residents. A plotting position formula, to compute empirical probabilities based on systematic and historical data, is used in this communication paper. The objective of the present work is to examine the potential gain in estimation accuracy with the

Observation of a Short Period Quasi-periodic Pulsation in Solar X-Ray, Microwave, and EUV Emissions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kumar, Pankaj; Cho, Kyung-Suk [Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI), Daejeon, 305-348 (Korea, Republic of); Nakariakov, Valery M., E-mail: pankaj@kasi.re.kr [Centre for Fusion, Space and Astrophysics, Department of Physics, University of Warwick, CV4 7AL (United Kingdom)

2017-02-10

This paper presents the multiwavelength analysis of a 13 s quasi-periodic pulsation (QPP) observed in hard X-ray (12–300 keV) and microwave (4.9–34 GHz) emissions during a C-class flare that occurred on 2015 September 21. Atmospheric Image Assembly (AIA) 304 and 171 Å images show an emerging loop/flux tube (L1) moving radially outward, which interacts with the preexisting structures within the active region (AR). The QPP was observed during the expansion of and rising motion of L1. The Nobeyama Radioheliograph microwave images in 17/34 GHz channels reveal a single radio source that was co-spatial with a neighboring loop (L2). In addition, using AIA 304 Å images, we detected intensity oscillations in the legs of L2 with a period of about 26 s. A similar oscillation period was observed in the GOES soft X-ray flux derivative. This oscillation period seems to increase with time. We suggest that the observed QPP is most likely generated by the interaction between L2 and L3 observed in the AIA hot channels (131 and 94 Å). The merging speed of loops L2 and L3 was ∼35 km s{sup −1}. L1 was destroyed possibly by its interaction with preexisting structures in the AR, and produced a cool jet with the speed of ∼106–118 km s{sup −1} associated with a narrow CME (∼770 km s{sup −1}). Another mechanism of the QPP in terms of a sausage oscillation of the loop (L2) is also possible.

Long-Term Climate Trends and Extreme Events in Northern Fennoscandia (1914–2013

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sonja Kivinen

2017-02-01

Full Text Available We studied climate trends and the occurrence of rare and extreme temperature and precipitation events in northern Fennoscandia in 1914–2013. Weather data were derived from nine observation stations located in Finland, Norway, Sweden and Russia. The results showed that spring and autumn temperatures and to a lesser extent summer temperatures increased significantly in the study region, the observed changes being the greatest for daily minimum temperatures. The number of frost days declined both in spring and autumn. Rarely cold winter, spring, summer and autumn seasons had a low occurrence and rarely warm spring and autumn seasons a high occurrence during the last 20-year interval (1994–2013, compared to the other 20-year intervals. That period was also characterized by a low number of days with extremely low temperature in all seasons (4–9% of all extremely cold days and a high number of April and October days with extremely high temperature (36–42% of all extremely warm days. A tendency of exceptionally high daily precipitation sums to grow even higher towards the end of the study period was also observed. To summarize, the results indicate a shortening of the cold season in northern Fennoscandia. Furthermore, the results suggest significant declines in extremely cold climate events in all seasons and increases in extremely warm climate events particularly in spring and autumn seasons.

Climate Change Extreme Events: Meeting the Information Needs of Water Resource Managers

Science.gov (United States)

Quay, R.; Garfin, G. M.; Dominguez, F.; Hirschboeck, K. K.; Woodhouse, C. A.; Guido, Z.; White, D. D.

2013-12-01

Information about climate has long been used by water managers to develop short term and long term plans and strategies for regional and local water resources. Inherent within longer term forecasts is an element of uncertainty, which is particularly evident in Global Climate model results for precipitation. For example in the southwest estimates in the flow of the Colorado River based on GCM results indicate changes from 120% or current flow to 60%. Many water resource managers are now using global climate model down scaled estimates results as indications of potential climate change as part of that planning. They are addressing the uncertainty within these estimates by using an anticipatory planning approach looking at a range of possible futures. One aspect of climate that is important for such planning are estimates of future extreme storm (short term) and drought (long term) events. However, the climate science of future possible changes in extreme events is less mature than general climate change science. At a recent workshop among climate scientists and water managers in the southwest, it was concluded the science of climate change extreme events is at least a decade away from being robust enough to be useful for water managers in their water resource management activities. However, it was proposed that there are existing estimates and records of past flooding and drought events that could be combined with general climate change science to create possible future events. These derived events could be of sufficient detail to be used by water resource managers until such time that the science of extreme events is able to provide more detailed estimates. Based on the results of this workshop and other work being done by the Decision Center for a Desert City at Arizona State University and the Climate Assessment for the Southwest center at University of Arizona., this article will 1) review what are the extreme event data needs of Water Resource Managers in the

The joint return period analysis of natural disasters based on monitoring and statistical modeling of multidimensional hazard factors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liu, Xueqin [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875 (China); National Marine Environmental Monitoring Center, State Oceanic Administration, Dalian 116023 (China); School of Social Development and Public Policy, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875 (China); Li, Ning [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875 (China); Yuan, Shuai, E-mail: syuan@nmemc.org.cn [National Marine Environmental Monitoring Center, State Oceanic Administration, Dalian 116023 (China); Xu, Ning; Shi, Wenqin; Chen, Weibin [National Marine Environmental Monitoring Center, State Oceanic Administration, Dalian 116023 (China)

2015-12-15

As a random event, a natural disaster has the complex occurrence mechanism. The comprehensive analysis of multiple hazard factors is important in disaster risk assessment. In order to improve the accuracy of risk analysis and forecasting, the formation mechanism of a disaster should be considered in the analysis and calculation of multi-factors. Based on the consideration of the importance and deficiencies of multivariate analysis of dust storm disasters, 91 severe dust storm disasters in Inner Mongolia from 1990 to 2013 were selected as study cases in the paper. Main hazard factors from 500-hPa atmospheric circulation system, near-surface meteorological system, and underlying surface conditions were selected to simulate and calculate the multidimensional joint return periods. After comparing the simulation results with actual dust storm events in 54 years, we found that the two-dimensional Frank Copula function showed the better fitting results at the lower tail of hazard factors and that three-dimensional Frank Copula function displayed the better fitting results at the middle and upper tails of hazard factors. However, for dust storm disasters with the short return period, three-dimensional joint return period simulation shows no obvious advantage. If the return period is longer than 10 years, it shows significant advantages in extreme value fitting. Therefore, we suggest the multivariate analysis method may be adopted in forecasting and risk analysis of serious disasters with the longer return period, such as earthquake and tsunami. Furthermore, the exploration of this method laid the foundation for the prediction and warning of other nature disasters. - Highlights: • A method to estimate the multidimensional joint return periods is presented. • 2D function allows better fitting results at the lower tail of hazard factors. • Three-dimensional simulation has obvious advantages in extreme value fitting. • Joint return periods are closer to the reality

The joint return period analysis of natural disasters based on monitoring and statistical modeling of multidimensional hazard factors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Xueqin; Li, Ning; Yuan, Shuai; Xu, Ning; Shi, Wenqin; Chen, Weibin

2015-01-01

As a random event, a natural disaster has the complex occurrence mechanism. The comprehensive analysis of multiple hazard factors is important in disaster risk assessment. In order to improve the accuracy of risk analysis and forecasting, the formation mechanism of a disaster should be considered in the analysis and calculation of multi-factors. Based on the consideration of the importance and deficiencies of multivariate analysis of dust storm disasters, 91 severe dust storm disasters in Inner Mongolia from 1990 to 2013 were selected as study cases in the paper. Main hazard factors from 500-hPa atmospheric circulation system, near-surface meteorological system, and underlying surface conditions were selected to simulate and calculate the multidimensional joint return periods. After comparing the simulation results with actual dust storm events in 54 years, we found that the two-dimensional Frank Copula function showed the better fitting results at the lower tail of hazard factors and that three-dimensional Frank Copula function displayed the better fitting results at the middle and upper tails of hazard factors. However, for dust storm disasters with the short return period, three-dimensional joint return period simulation shows no obvious advantage. If the return period is longer than 10 years, it shows significant advantages in extreme value fitting. Therefore, we suggest the multivariate analysis method may be adopted in forecasting and risk analysis of serious disasters with the longer return period, such as earthquake and tsunami. Furthermore, the exploration of this method laid the foundation for the prediction and warning of other nature disasters. - Highlights: • A method to estimate the multidimensional joint return periods is presented. • 2D function allows better fitting results at the lower tail of hazard factors. • Three-dimensional simulation has obvious advantages in extreme value fitting. • Joint return periods are closer to the reality

Evidences of Significant Nonstationarity in Precipitation Extremes over Urbanizing Areas in India

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, J.; H, V.; Karmakar, S.; Ghosh, S.

2014-12-01

The statistical assumption of stationarity in hydrologic extreme time/event series has been relied heavily in frequency analysis. However, due to the analytically perceivable impacts of climate change, urbanization and concomitant land use pattern, assumption of stationarity in hydrologic time series will draw erroneous results, which inturn effects the policy and decision-making. Past studies provided sufficient evidences on changes in the characteristics of Indian monsoon rainfall extremes and further it has been attributed to climate change and urbanization, which indicates the presence of significant nonstationary in the Indian monsoon extremes. Therefore, a comprehensive nonstationary frequency analysis must be conducted all over India to obtain realistic return periods. The present study aims to conduct a nonstationary frequency analysis of the precipitation extremes over India at 1o resolution for a period of 1901-2004, with the implementation of the Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) parameters. A cluster of 74 GAMLSS models has been developed by considering nonstationary in different combinations of distribution parameters and regression techniques (families of parametric polynomials and nonparametric/smoothing cubic spline), which overcomes the limitations of the previous studies. Further, for identification of urban, urbanizing and rural grids, an population density data has been utilized. The results showed the significant differences in the stationary and nonstationary return periods for the urbanizing grids, when compared to urbanized and rural grids. The results give implications of presence of nonstationary in the precipitation extremes more prominently in urbanizing areas compare to urbanized and rural areas.

Changes in observed climate extremes in global urban areas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mishra, Vimal; Ganguly, Auroop R; Nijssen, Bart; Lettenmaier, Dennis P

2015-01-01

Climate extremes have profound implications for urban infrastructure and human society, but studies of observed changes in climate extremes over the global urban areas are few, even though more than half of the global population now resides in urban areas. Here, using observed station data for 217 urban areas across the globe, we show that these urban areas have experienced significant increases (p-value <0.05) in the number of heat waves during the period 1973–2012, while the frequency of cold waves has declined. Almost half of the urban areas experienced significant increases in the number of extreme hot days, while almost 2/3 showed significant increases in the frequency of extreme hot nights. Extreme windy days declined substantially during the last four decades with statistically significant declines in about 60% in the urban areas. Significant increases (p-value <0.05) in the frequency of daily precipitation extremes and in annual maximum precipitation occurred at smaller fractions (17 and 10% respectively) of the total urban areas, with about half as many urban areas showing statistically significant downtrends as uptrends. Changes in temperature and wind extremes, estimated as the result of a 40 year linear trend, differed for urban and non-urban pairs, while changes in indices of extreme precipitation showed no clear differentiation for urban and selected non-urban stations. (letter)

Extreme lipoprotein(a) levels and risk of myocardial infarction in the general population

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kamstrup, Pia R; Benn, Marianne; Tybjaerg-Hansen, Anne

2008-01-01

Elevated lipoprotein(a) levels are associated with myocardial infarction (MI) in some but not all studies. Limitations of previous studies include lack of risk estimates for extreme lipoprotein(a) levels, measurements in long-term frozen samples, no correction for regression dilution bias, and lack...... of absolute risk estimates in the general population. We tested the hypothesis that extreme lipoprotein(a) levels predict MI in the general population, measuring levels shortly after sampling, correcting for regression dilution bias, and calculating hazard ratios and absolute risk estimates....

Modelling of extreme minimum rainfall using generalised extreme value distribution for Zimbabwe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Delson Chikobvu

2015-09-01

Full Text Available We modelled the mean annual rainfall for data recorded in Zimbabwe from 1901 to 2009. Extreme value theory was used to estimate the probabilities of meteorological droughts. Droughts can be viewed as extreme events which go beyond and/or below normal rainfall occurrences, such as exceptionally low mean annual rainfall. The duality between the distribution of the minima and maxima was exploited and used to fit the generalised extreme value distribution (GEVD to the data and hence find probabilities of extreme low levels of mean annual rainfall. The augmented Dickey Fuller test confirmed that rainfall data were stationary, while the normal quantile-quantile plot indicated that rainfall data deviated from the normality assumption at both ends of the tails of the distribution. The maximum likelihood estimation method and the Bayesian approach were used to find the parameters of the GEVD. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling goodnessof- fit tests showed that the Weibull class of distributions was a good fit to the minima mean annual rainfall using the maximum likelihood estimation method. The mean return period estimate of a meteorological drought using the threshold value of mean annual rainfall of 473 mm was 8 years. This implies that if in the year there is a meteorological drought then another drought of the same intensity or greater is expected after 8 years. It is expected that the use of Bayesian inference may better quantify the level of uncertainty associated with the GEVD parameter estimates than with the maximum likelihood estimation method. The Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for the GEVD was applied to construct the model parameter estimates using the Bayesian approach. These findings are significant because results based on non-informative priors (Bayesian method and the maximum likelihood method approach are expected to be similar.

Emotional changes occurring in women in pregnancy, parturition and lying-in period according to factors exerting an effect on a woman during the peripartum period

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Beata Pięta

2014-09-01

Full Text Available [b]Introduction[/b]. Pregnancy, parturition and childcare, which are important moments in a woman’s life, are connected with many emotional states of a future mother, a pregnant woman and a lying-in woman. The perinatal period is the time when the risk of psychological disorders in a pregnant woman may increase by even several times. [b]Objective.[/b] The objective of the study was recognition of the main emotional and psychological changes in pregnant women, those in labour and lying-in, according to the factors occurring during the peripartum period. [b]Material and method[/b]. The study was conducted in the form of a survey and covered a group of 108 mothers who were hospitalized in gynaecological-obstetric and obstetric wards in the Karol Marcinkowski Gynaecological-Obstetric University Hospital in Poznań. [b]Results[/b]. There are a number of factors which may exert a negative effect on the emotions of women in pregnancy, parturition, and during lying-in. The study showed that there is a close relationship between the occurrence of these factors and emotional states of the mothers after giving birth. [b]Conclusion[/b]. Special attention should be given to women in whom already during pregnancy factors arise which may have a negative impact on their mental state. Emotions during pregnancy, parturition and lying-in are often quite extreme, and achieve a high intensity, as well being very variable within a short period of time.

Willow coppice systems in short rotation forestry: effects of plant spacing, rotation length and clonal composition on biomass production

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Willebrand, E.; Ledin, S.; Verwijst, T. (Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala (Sweden). Dept. of Ecology and Environmental Research)

1993-01-01

Above ground biomass production was determined for ten Salix clones grown in pure and mixed stands at a square spacing of 1 m and seven rotation periods (1 to 6 and 8 years), and of one clone grown at four square spacings (0.5, 0.6, 0.7 and 1 m), with rotation cycles of 1 to 5 years. Most clones reached a maximum mean annual increment (8 to 14 tons dry matter ha[sup -1] yr[sup -1]) under a rotation period of 4 to 5 years. Densely spaced stands exhibited a higher production than wider spacings during the first harvests under the shortest rotation periods. Neither in later harvests of short cycles (1 to 3 years) nor in any harvests of longer cycles (> 3 years) did spacing affect biomass production. Some clones suffered from leaf rust and grazing by roe deer. Clone mixtures showed a higher biomass production in the later stages due to the compensatory effect of the successful clones which, when growing in mixtures, could fill out the gaps left by individuals that suffered from impacts other than competition. We conclude that extremely short rotations (1 to 2 years) are unsuitable for Swedish conditions, and that 4- to 6-year rotations perform best. In such longer rotations, biomass production of stands with 2 x 10[sup 4] plants per hectare equals the production of denser stands. (Author)

Continuous Spatial Process Models for Spatial Extreme Values

KAUST Repository

Sang, Huiyan

2010-01-28

We propose a hierarchical modeling approach for explaining a collection of point-referenced extreme values. In particular, annual maxima over space and time are assumed to follow generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions, with parameters μ, σ, and ξ specified in the latent stage to reflect underlying spatio-temporal structure. The novelty here is that we relax the conditionally independence assumption in the first stage of the hierarchial model, an assumption which has been adopted in previous work. This assumption implies that realizations of the the surface of spatial maxima will be everywhere discontinuous. For many phenomena including, e. g., temperature and precipitation, this behavior is inappropriate. Instead, we offer a spatial process model for extreme values that provides mean square continuous realizations, where the behavior of the surface is driven by the spatial dependence which is unexplained under the latent spatio-temporal specification for the GEV parameters. In this sense, the first stage smoothing is viewed as fine scale or short range smoothing while the larger scale smoothing will be captured in the second stage of the modeling. In addition, as would be desired, we are able to implement spatial interpolation for extreme values based on this model. A simulation study and a study on actual annual maximum rainfall for a region in South Africa are used to illustrate the performance of the model. © 2009 International Biometric Society.

Classifying Returns as Extreme: European Stock and Bond Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christiansen, Charlotte

whereby a shorter sample period is needed. For the bond markets the simultaneous extreme return variable (used for analyzing integration and contagion of financial markets) is not statistically different for the two schemes. For the stock markets there are differences, but they are disappearing......I consider the stock and bond markets of 14 EU countries. I use two classification schemes for defining extreme returns: One, the existing univariate classification scheme which considers each market separately. Two, the new multivariate classification scheme that considers all the markets jointly...

A dearth of short-period massive binaries in the young massive star forming region M 17. Evidence for a large orbital separation at birth?

Science.gov (United States)

Sana, H.; Ramírez-Tannus, M. C.; de Koter, A.; Kaper, L.; Tramper, F.; Bik, A.

2017-03-01

Aims: The formation of massive stars remains poorly understood and little is known about their birth multiplicity properties. Here, we aim to quantitatively investigate the strikingly low radial-velocity dispersion measured for a sample of 11 massive pre- and near-main-sequence stars (σ1D= 5.6 ± 0.2 km s-1) in the very young massive star forming region M 17, in order to obtain first constraints on the multiplicity properties of young massive stellar objects. Methods: We compute the radial-velocity dispersion of synthetic populations of massive stars for various multiplicity properties and we compare the obtained σ1D distributions to the observed value. We specifically investigate two scenarios: a low binary fraction and a dearth of short-period binary systems. Results: Simulated populations with low binary fractions () or with truncated period distributions (Pcutoff > 9 months) are able to reproduce the low σ1D observed within their 68%-confidence intervals. Furthermore, parent populations with fbin > 0.42 or Pcutoff < 47 d can be rejected at the 5%-significance level. Both constraints are in stark contrast with the high binary fraction and plethora of short-period systems in few Myr-old, well characterized OB-type populations. To explain the difference in the context of the first scenario would require a variation of the outcome of the massive star formation process. In the context of the second scenario, compact binaries must form later on, and the cut-off period may be related to physical length-scales representative of the bloated pre-main-sequence stellar radii or of their accretion disks. Conclusions: If the obtained constraints for the M 17's massive-star population are representative of the multiplicity properties of massive young stellar objects, our results may provide support to a massive star formation process in which binaries are initially formed at larger separations, then harden or migrate to produce the typical (untruncated) power-law period

Liquid Water Restricts Habitability in Extreme Deserts.

Science.gov (United States)

Cockell, Charles S; Brown, Sarah; Landenmark, Hanna; Samuels, Toby; Siddall, Rebecca; Wadsworth, Jennifer

2017-04-01

Liquid water is a requirement for biochemistry, yet under some circumstances it is deleterious to life. Here, we show that liquid water reduces the upper temperature survival limit for two extremophilic photosynthetic microorganisms (Gloeocapsa and Chroococcidiopsis spp.) by greater than 40°C under hydrated conditions compared to desiccated conditions. Under hydrated conditions, thermal stress causes protein inactivation as shown by the fluorescein diacetate assay. The presence of water was also found to enhance the deleterious effects of freeze-thaw in Chroococcidiopsis sp. In the presence of water, short-wavelength UV radiation more effectively kills Gloeocapsa sp. colonies, which we hypothesize is caused by factors including the greater penetration of UV radiation into hydrated colonies compared to desiccated colonies. The data predict that deserts where maximum thermal stress or irradiation occurs in conjunction with the presence of liquid water may be less habitable to some organisms than more extreme arid deserts where organisms can dehydrate prior to being exposed to these extremes, thus minimizing thermal and radiation damage. Life in extreme deserts is poised between the deleterious effects of the presence and the lack of liquid water. Key Words: Deserts-Extremophiles-Stress-High temperatures-UV radiation-Desiccation. Astrobiology 17, 309-318.

State-shifting at the edge of resilience: River suspended sediment responses to land use change and extreme storms

Science.gov (United States)

Abbott, Samantha; Julian, Jason P.; Kamarinas, Ioannis; Meitzen, Kimberly M.; Fuller, Ian C.; McColl, Samuel T.; Dymond, John R.

2018-03-01

The interaction of climate, geomorphology, and land use dictates catchment sediment production and associated river sediment loads. Accordingly, the resilience of catchments to disturbances can be assessed with suspended sediment regimes. This case study in the hill country of the lower North Island of New Zealand was a decade-long examination of the short- and long-term effects of an extreme storm event on sediment supply and exhaustion in the Oroua and Pohangina catchments, two catchments that have experienced intense land use changes and frequent broad-scale landslides. Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration, a program developed to characterize hydrologic regimes, was used to analyze daily suspended sediment records over a period of a decade in order to characterize sediment regimes of the Oroua and Pohangina. An aggregated data set of sediment-bearing events for the period of record was analyzed to examine the suspended sediment response of individual storms relative to runoff magnitudes. The findings of this study demonstrate that large storms that generate extreme landsliding and flooding have the ability to produce enough sediment to temporarily convert catchments from a supply-limited state to a transport-limited state. Landsliding and thus sediment supply was disproportionately high in locations where livestock grazing occurred on steep hillslopes. The timing and intensity of previous storms, or the antecedent catchment condition, was also shown to influence the response of the catchments. In both catchments, suspended sediment loads were elevated for a period of 4 years following the landslide-generating February 2004 storm. The methods and findings we present are useful for assessing the resilience of catchments exposed to frequent disturbances such as land use changes and landslides.

Flooding hazards from sea extremes and subsidence

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Carlo; Vognsen, Karsten; Broge, Niels

2015-01-01

of tide gauge records, statistics that allow also for projections of SLR, meteorological variability, and extremes with a very low probability of occurrence are provided. Land movement is researched with a focus on short term surface height variability in the groundwater-ocean interface that, together...... with longer term processes, may cause substantial subsidence and impact future water management and adaptation strategies in flood prone coastal areas. Field studies’ results from repeated precise levelling, GPS setups, and ocean and groundwater level monitoring in Thyborøn and Aarhus are integrated...

Half-period optical pulse generation using a free-electron laser

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jaroszynski, D.A.; Chaix, P.; Piovella, N.

1995-01-01

Recently there has been growth, in interest in non-equilibrium interaction of half-period long optical pulses with matter. To date the optical pulses have been produced by chopping out a half-period long segment from a longer pulse using a semiconductor switch driven by a femtosecond laser. In this paper we present new methods for producing tunable ultra-short optical pulses as short as half an optical period using a free-electron laser driven by electron bunches with a duration a fraction of an optical period. Two different methods relying on the production of coherent spontaneous emission will be described. In the first method we show that when a train of ultra-short optical pulses as short as one half period. We present calculations which show that the small signal gain is unimportant in the early stages of radiation build up in the cavity when the startup process is dominated by coherent spontaneous emission. To support our proposed method we present encouraging experimental results from the FELIX experiment in the Netherlands which show that interference effects between the coherent spontaneous optical pulses at start-up are very important. The second proposed method relies on the fact that coherent spontaneous emission mimics the undulations of electrons as they pass through the undulator. We show that ultra-short optical pulses are produced by coherent spontaneous emission when ultra-short electron bunches pass through an ultra-short undulator. We discuss the interesting case of such undulator radiation in the presence of an optical cavity and show that the optical pulse can be open-quotes tayloredclose quotes by simply adjusting the optical cavity desynchronism. The proposed methods may be realisable using existing rf driven FELs in the far-infrared

Nitrogen fertilization and yield formation of potato during a short growing period

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. MUSTONEN

2008-12-01

Full Text Available The effects various rates of nitrogen application on accumulation of dry matter and nitrogen in potato (Solanum tuberosum L. were studied during a short growing period of 140–180 days, at MTT Agrifood Research Finland in 2000–2001. The treatments were 0, 60 and 120 kg N ha-1 and the potato cultivars tested were Van Gogh and Nicola. Four successive harvests were made during the course of the experiment to monitor changes in the accumulation of dry matter and nitrogen over the season. Applications of nitrogen substantially increased haulm dry matter accumulation and to an even greater extent their nitrogen contents. The highest dry matter values were generally registered at 120 kg N ha-1. Dry matter and nitrogen content of haulms started to decline during the later part of season and most nitrogen was relocated to tubers. The results suggest that an application of only 60 kg N ha-1 was sufficient to promote rapid canopy development and there were only small reductions in dry matter and nitrogen accumulation until late in the season when the canopy started to senesce as nitrogen supply diminished. Tuber yield, plant dry matter and nitrogen accumulation at maturity were related to crop nitrogen supply. Although application of the high rate, 120 N kg ha-1, resulted in a significant increase in dry matter accumulation, this was not reflected in the profit because the higher nitrogen application reduced dry matter content of tubers by 2.6% in 2000 and by 1.1% in 2001 relative to the use of 60 kg N ha-1. Apparent fertilizer nitrogen recovery values on a whole plant basis ranged from 53 to 75%. The proportion of fertilizer recovered in tubers clearly declined with increase in nitrogen supply.;

Towards short wavelengths FELs workshop

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ben-Zvi, I.; Winick, H.

1993-01-01

This workshop was caged because of the growing perception in the FEL source community that recent advances have made it possible to extend FEL operation to wavelengths about two orders of magnitude shorter than the 240 nm that has been achieved to date. In addition short wavelength FELs offer the possibilities of extremely high peak power (several gigawatts) and very short pulses (of the order of 100 fs). Several groups in the USA are developing plans for such short wavelength FEL facilities. However, reviewers of these plans have pointed out that it would be highly desirable to first carry out proof-of-principle experiments at longer wavelengths to increase confidence that the shorter wavelength devices will indeed perform as calculated. The need for such experiments has now been broadly accepted by the FEL community. Such experiments were the main focus of this workshop as described in the following objectives distributed to attendees: (1) Define measurements needed to gain confidence that short wavelength FELs will perform as calculated. (2) List possible hardware that could be used to carry out these measurements in the near term. (3) Define a prioritized FEL physics experimental program and suggested timetable. (4) Form collaborative teams to carry out this program

Towards short wavelengths FELs workshop

Science.gov (United States)

Ben-Zvi, I.; Winick, H.

1993-11-01

This workshop was caged because of the growing perception in the FEL source community that recent advances have made it possible to extend FEL operation to wavelengths about two orders of magnitude shorter than the 240 nm that has been achieved to date. In addition short wavelength FEL's offer the possibilities of extremely high peak power (several gigawatts) and very short pulses (of the order of 100 fs). Several groups in the USA are developing plans for such short wavelength FEL facilities. However, reviewers of these plans have pointed out that it would be highly desirable to first carry out proof-of-principle experiments at longer wavelengths to increase confidence that the shorter wavelength devices will indeed perform as calculated. The need for such experiments has now been broadly accepted by the FEL community. Such experiments were the main focus of this workshop as described in the following objectives distributed to attendees: (1) Define measurements needed to gain confidence that short wavelength FEL's will perform as calculated. (2) List possible hardware that could be used to carry out these measurements in the near term. (3) Define a prioritized FEL physics experimental program and suggested timetable. (4) Form collaborative teams to carry out this program.

Expected extreme sea levels at Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp up until year 2100

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brydsten, Lars; Engqvist, Anders; Naeslund, Jens-Ove; Lindborg, Tobias

2009-01-01

Literature data on factors that can affect the highest expected shoreline during the operational lifetime of a final repository up until ca 2100 AD have been compiled for Forsmark and Laxemar/Simpevarp. The study takes into consideration eustasy (global sea level), isostasy (isostatic rebound) and their trends, as well as regional (North Sea) and local (Baltic Sea) annual extremes of today's sea levels and those in year 2100. The most uncertain factor of these is the future global sea level change. For this factor, three possible scenarios have been included from the literature, forming an rough uncertainty interval around a case with an 'intermediate' global sea level. To this end, the study thus makes use of information on global sea level change that has been published since the IPCC's (UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) most recent report (2007). The local cumulative impact on the shoreline of the eustatic and isostatic components for both the Forsmark and Laxemar/Simpevarp coastal areas is that the maximum sea level occurs at the end of the investigation period, by year 2100. The interaction of these estimates is discussed in terms of coastal oceanographic aspects and estimated return periods for local extreme sea level-impacting events, including estimated storm surge. Maximum sea levels in year 2100 based on the sea level rise estimates by Rahmstorf are + 254 cm for Forsmark and + 297 cm for Laxemar/Simpevarp, both of these levels with an uncertainty interval of about ± 70 cm. The numbers apply for the worst possible case in regard to future sea level rise, and for occasions of short duration during heavy storms. In this context it is important to note that the data on which these estimates are based are the subject of intense research, and that revisions are therefore to be expected

Expected extreme sea levels at Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp up until year 2100

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brydsten, Lars (Umeaa Univ., Umeaa (Sweden)); Engqvist, Anders (Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden)); Naeslund, Jens-Ove; Lindborg, Tobias (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden))

2009-01-15

Literature data on factors that can affect the highest expected shoreline during the operational lifetime of a final repository up until ca 2100 AD have been compiled for Forsmark and Laxemar/Simpevarp. The study takes into consideration eustasy (global sea level), isostasy (isostatic rebound) and their trends, as well as regional (North Sea) and local (Baltic Sea) annual extremes of today's sea levels and those in year 2100. The most uncertain factor of these is the future global sea level change. For this factor, three possible scenarios have been included from the literature, forming an rough uncertainty interval around a case with an 'intermediate' global sea level. To this end, the study thus makes use of information on global sea level change that has been published since the IPCC's (UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) most recent report (2007). The local cumulative impact on the shoreline of the eustatic and isostatic components for both the Forsmark and Laxemar/Simpevarp coastal areas is that the maximum sea level occurs at the end of the investigation period, by year 2100. The interaction of these estimates is discussed in terms of coastal oceanographic aspects and estimated return periods for local extreme sea level-impacting events, including estimated storm surge. Maximum sea levels in year 2100 based on the sea level rise estimates by Rahmstorf are + 254 cm for Forsmark and + 297 cm for Laxemar/Simpevarp, both of these levels with an uncertainty interval of about +- 70 cm. The numbers apply for the worst possible case in regard to future sea level rise, and for occasions of short duration during heavy storms. In this context it is important to note that the data on which these estimates are based are the subject of intense research, and that revisions are therefore to be expected

Photoionization capable, extreme and vacuum ultraviolet emission in developing low temperature plasmas in air

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stephens, J.; Fierro, A.; Beeson, S.; Laity, G.; Trienekens, D.; Joshi, R.P.; Dickens, J.; Neuber, A.

2016-01-01

Experimental observation of photoionization capable extreme ultraviolet and vacuum ultraviolet emission from nanosecond timescale, developing low temperature plasmas (i.e. streamer discharges) in atmospheric air is presented. Applying short high voltage pulses enabled the observation of the onset of

May flood-poor periods be more dangerous than flood-rich periods?

Science.gov (United States)

Salinas, Jose Luis; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Viglione, Alberto; Kuil, Linda; Bloeschl, Guenter

2014-05-01

River floods are among the most devastating natural hazards experienced by populations that, since the earliest recorded civilisations, have settled in floodplains because they offer favourable conditions for trade, agriculture, and economic development. The occurrence of a flood may cause loss of lives and tremendous economic damages and, therefore, is rightly seen as a very negative event by the communities involved. Occurrence of many floods in a row is, of course, even more frustrating and is rightly considered a unbearable calamity. Unfortunately, the occurrence of many floods in a limited number of consecutive years is not unusual. In many places in the world, it has been observed that extreme floods do not arrive randomly but cluster in time into flood-poor and flood-rich periods consistent with the Hurst effect. If this is the case, when are the people more in danger? When should people be more scared? In flood-poor or flood-rich periods? In this work, a Socio-Hydrology model (Di Baldassarre et al., 2013; Viglione et al., 2014) is used to show that, maybe counter-intuitively, flood-poor periods may be more dangerous than flood-rich periods. The model is a conceptualisation of a hypothetical setting of a city at a river where a community evolves, making choices between flood management options on the floodplain. The most important feedbacks between the economic, political, technological and hydrological processes of the evolution of that community are represented in the model. In particular, the model also accounts in a dynamic way for the evolution of the the community awareness to flood risk. Occurrence of floods tends to increase peoples' recognition that their property is in an area that is potentially at risk of flooding, both at the scales of individuals and communities, which is one of the main reasons why flood coping actions are taken. It is shown through examples that frequent flood events may result in moderate damages because they ensure that the

Thyrotoxic periodic paralysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferreiro, J.E.; Arguelles, D.J.; Rams, H. Jr.

1986-01-01

A case of thyrotoxic periodic paralysis is reported in a Hispanic man with an unusual recurrence six weeks after radioactive iodine treatment. Thyrotoxic periodic paralysis has now been well characterized in the literature: it occurs primarily in Orientals with an overwhelming male preponderance and a higher association of specific HLA antigens. Clinical manifestations include onset after high carbohydrate ingestion or heavy exertion, with progressive symmetric weakness leading to flaccid paralysis of the extremities and other muscle groups, lasting several hours. If hypokalemia is present, potassium administration may help abort the attack. Although propranolol can be efficacious in preventing further episodes, the only definitive treatment is establishing a euthyroid state. The pathophysiology is still controversial, but reflects altered potassium and calcium dynamics as well as certain morphologic characteristics within the muscle unit itself

Impacts of short-term heatwaves on sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence(SiF) in temperate tree species

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, F.; Gu, L.; Guha, A.; Han, J.; Warren, J.

2017-12-01

The current projections for global climate change forecast an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme climatic events, such as droughts and short-term heat waves. Understanding the effects of short-term heat wave on photosynthesis process is of critical importance to predict global impacts of extreme weather event on vegetation. The diurnal and seasonal characteristics of SIF emitted from natural vegetation, e.g., forest and crop, have been studied at the ecosystem-scale, regional-scale and global-scale. However, the detailed response of SIF from different plant species under extremely weather event, especially short-term heat wave, have not been reported. The purpose of this study was to study the response of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence, gas exchange and continuous fluorescence at leaf scale for different temperate tree species. The short-term heatwave experiment was conducted using plant growth chamber (CMP6050, Conviron Inc., Canada). We developed an advanced spectral fitting method to obtain the plant SIF in the plant growth chamber. We compared SIF variation among different wavelength and chlorophyll difference among four temperate tree species. The diurnal variation of SIF signals at leaf-scales for temperate tree species are different under heat stress. The SIF response at leaf-scales and their difference for four temperate tree species are different during a cycle of short-term heatwave stress. We infer that SIF be used as a measure of heat tolerance for temperate tree species.

Vertical structure of extreme currents in the Faroe-Bank Channel

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Carollo

2005-09-01

Full Text Available Extreme currents are studied with the aim of understanding their vertical and spatial structures in the Faroe-Bank Channel. Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler time series recorded in 3 deployments in this channel were investigated. To understand the main features of extreme events, the measurements were separated into their components through filtering and tidal analysis before applying the extreme value theory to the surge component. The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV distribution and the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD were used to study the variation of surge extremes from near-surface to deep waters. It was found that this component alone is not able to explain the extremes measured in total currents, particularly below 500 m. Here the mean residual flow enhanced by tidal rectification was found to be the component feature dominating extremes. Therefore, it must be taken into consideration when applying the extreme value theory, not to underestimate the return level for total currents. Return value speeds up to 250 cm s–1 for 50/250 years return period were found for deep waters, where the flow is constrained by the topography at bearings near 300/330° It is also found that the UK Meteorological Office FOAM model is unable to reproduce either the magnitude or the form for the extremes, perhaps due to its coarse vertical and horizontal resolution, and is thus not suitable to model extremes on a regional scale. Keywords. Oceanography: Physical (Currents; General circulation; General or miscellaneous

Moderate and extreme maternal obesity.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Abdelmaboud, M O

2012-05-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of moderate and extreme obesity among an Irish obstetric population over a 10-year period, and to evaluate the obstetric features of such pregnancies. Of 31,869 women delivered during the years 2000-2009, there were 306 women in the study group, including 173 in the moderate or Class 2 obese category (BMI 35-39.9) and 133 in the extreme or Class 3 obese category (BMI > or = 40).The prevalence of obese women with BMI > or = 35 was 9.6 per 1000 (0.96%), with an upward trend observed from 2.1 per 1000 in the year 2000, to 11.8 per 1000 in the year 2009 (P = 0.001). There was an increase in emergency caesarean section (EMCS) risk for primigravida versus multigravid women, within both obese categories (P < 0.001). However, there was no significant difference in EMCS rates observed between Class 2 and Class 3 obese women, when matched for parity. The prevalence of moderate and extreme obesity reported in this population is high, and appears to be increasing. The increased rates of abdominal delivery, and the levels of associated morbidity observed, have serious implications for such women embarking on pregnancy.

Climate Variability and Weather Extremes: Model-Simulated and Historical Data. Chapter 9

Science.gov (United States)

Schubert, Siegfried D.; Lim, Young-Kwon

2012-01-01

Extremes in weather and climate encompass a wide array of phenomena including tropical storms, mesoscale convective systems, snowstorms, floods, heat waves, and drought. Understanding how such extremes might change in the future requires an understanding of their past behavior including their connections to large-scale climate variability and trends. Previous studies suggest that the most robust findings concerning changes in short-term extremes are those that can be most directly (though not completely) tied to the increase in the global mean temperatures. These include the findings that (IPCC 2007): There has been a widespread reduction in the number of frost days in mid-latitude regions in recent decades, an increase in the number of warm extremes, particularly warm nights, and a reduction in the number of cold extremes, particularly cold nights. For North America in particular (CCSP SAP 3.3, 2008): There are fewer unusually cold days during the last few decades. The last 10 years have seen a lower number of severe cold waves than for any other 10-year period in the historical record that dates back to 1895. There has been a decrease in the number of frost days and a lengthening of the frost-free season, particularly in the western part of North America. Other aspects of extremes such as the changes in storminess have a less clear signature of long term change, with considerable interannual, and decadal variability that can obscure any climate change signal. Nevertheless, regarding extratropical storms (CCSP SAP 3.3, 2008): The balance of evidence suggests that there has been a northward shift in the tracks of strong low pressure systems (storms) in both the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins. For North America: Regional analyses suggest that there has been a decrease in snowstorms in the South and lower Midwest of the United States, and an increase in snowstorms in the upper Midwest and Northeast. Despite the progress already made, our understanding of the

Modeling Spatial Dependence of Rainfall Extremes Across Multiple Durations

Science.gov (United States)

Le, Phuong Dong; Leonard, Michael; Westra, Seth

2018-03-01

Determining the probability of a flood event in a catchment given that another flood has occurred in a nearby catchment is useful in the design of infrastructure such as road networks that have multiple river crossings. These conditional flood probabilities can be estimated by calculating conditional probabilities of extreme rainfall and then transforming rainfall to runoff through a hydrologic model. Each catchment's hydrological response times are unlikely to be the same, so in order to estimate these conditional probabilities one must consider the dependence of extreme rainfall both across space and across critical storm durations. To represent these types of dependence, this study proposes a new approach for combining extreme rainfall across different durations within a spatial extreme value model using max-stable process theory. This is achieved in a stepwise manner. The first step defines a set of common parameters for the marginal distributions across multiple durations. The parameters are then spatially interpolated to develop a spatial field. Storm-level dependence is represented through the max-stable process for rainfall extremes across different durations. The dependence model shows a reasonable fit between the observed pairwise extremal coefficients and the theoretical pairwise extremal coefficient function across all durations. The study demonstrates how the approach can be applied to develop conditional maps of the return period and return level across different durations.

The relationship between extreme weather events and crop losses in central Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Lai, Li-Wei

2017-09-01

The frequency of extreme weather events, which cause severe crop losses, is increasing. This study investigates the relationship between crop losses and extreme weather events in central Taiwan from 2003 to 2015 and determines the main factors influencing crop losses. Data regarding the crop loss area and meteorological information were obtained from government agencies. The crops were categorised into the following five groups: `grains', `vegetables', `fruits', `flowers' and `other crops'. The extreme weather events and their synoptic weather patterns were categorised into six and five groups, respectively. The data were analysed using the z score, correlation coefficient and stepwise regression model. The results show that typhoons had the highest frequency of all extreme weather events (58.3%). The largest crop loss area (4.09%) was caused by two typhoons and foehn wind in succession. Extreme wind speed coupled with heavy rainfall is an important factor affecting the losses in the grain and vegetable groups. Extreme wind speed is a common variable that affects the loss of `grains', `vegetables', `fruits' and `flowers'. Consecutive extreme weather events caused greater crop losses than individual events. Crops with long production times suffered greater losses than those with short production times. This suggests that crops with physical structures that can be easily damaged and long production times would benefit from protected cultivation to maintain food security.

Investigating NARCCAP Precipitation Extremes via Bivariate Extreme Value Theory (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Weller, G. B.; Cooley, D. S.; Sain, S. R.; Bukovsky, M. S.; Mearns, L. O.

2013-12-01

We introduce methodology from statistical extreme value theory to examine the ability of reanalysis-drive regional climate models to simulate past daily precipitation extremes. Going beyond a comparison of summary statistics such as 20-year return values, we study whether the most extreme precipitation events produced by climate model simulations exhibit correspondence to the most extreme events seen in observational records. The extent of this correspondence is formulated via the statistical concept of tail dependence. We examine several case studies of extreme precipitation events simulated by the six models of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) driven by NCEP reanalysis. It is found that the NARCCAP models generally reproduce daily winter precipitation extremes along the Pacific coast quite well; in contrast, simulation of past daily summer precipitation extremes in a central US region is poor. Some differences in the strength of extremal correspondence are seen in the central region between models which employ spectral nudging and those which do not. We demonstrate how these techniques may be used to draw a link between extreme precipitation events and large-scale atmospheric drivers, as well as to downscale extreme precipitation simulated by a future run of a regional climate model. Specifically, we examine potential future changes in the nature of extreme precipitation along the Pacific coast produced by the pineapple express (PE) phenomenon. A link between extreme precipitation events and a "PE Index" derived from North Pacific sea-surface pressure fields is found. This link is used to study PE-influenced extreme precipitation produced by a future-scenario climate model run.

Analysing environmental and fishing effects on a short-lived species ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Short-lived species are extremely dependent on the seasonal and interannual variability of environmental conditions, and determining their stock status is often difficult. This study investigates the effects of environmental variability and fishing pressure on the stock of octopus Octopus vulgaris in Senegalese waters over a ...

Short-term memories with a stochastic perturbation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pontes, Jose C.A. de; Batista, Antonio M.; Viana, Ricardo L.; Lopes, Sergio R.

2005-01-01

We investigate short-term memories in linear and weakly nonlinear coupled map lattices with a periodic external input. We use locally coupled maps to present numerical results about short-term memory formation adding a stochastic perturbation in the maps and in the external input

Hydrometeorological extremes derived from taxation records for south-eastern Moravia, Czech Republic, 1751-1900 AD

Science.gov (United States)

Brázdil, R.; Chromá, K.; Valášek, H.; Dolák, L.

2012-03-01

Historical written records associated with tax relief at ten estates located in south-eastern Moravia (Czech Republic) are used for the study of hydrometeorological extremes and their impacts during the period 1751-1900 AD. At the time, the taxation system in Moravia allowed farmers to request tax relief if their crop yields had been negatively affected by hydrological and meteorological extremes. The documentation involved contains information about the type of extreme event and the date of its occurrence, while the impact on crops may often be derived. A total of 175 extreme events resulting in some kind of damage are documented for 1751-1900, with the highest concentration between 1811 and 1860 (74.9% of all events analysed). The nature of events leading to damage (of a possible 272 types) include hailstorm (25.7%), torrential rain (21.7%), flood (21.0%), followed by thunderstorm, flash flood, late frost and windstorm. The four most outstanding events, affecting the highest number of settlements, were thunderstorms with hailstorms (25 June 1825, 20 May 1847 and 29 June 1890) and flooding of the River Morava (mid-June 1847). Hydrometeorological extremes in the 1816-1855 period are compared with those occurring during the recent 1961-2000 period. The results obtained are inevitably influenced by uncertainties related to taxation records, such as their temporal and spatial incompleteness, the limits of the period of outside agricultural work (i.e. mainly May-August) and the purpose for which they were originally collected (primarily tax alleviation, i.e. information about hydrometeorological extremes was of secondary importance). Taxation records constitute an important source of data for historical climatology and historical hydrology and have a great potential for use in many European countries.

Upper-extremity phocomelia reexamined: a longitudinal dysplasia.

Science.gov (United States)

Goldfarb, Charles A; Manske, Paul R; Busa, Riccardo; Mills, Janith; Carter, Peter; Ezaki, Marybeth

2005-12-01

In contrast to longitudinal deficiencies, phocomelia is considered a transverse, intercalated segmental dysplasia. Most patients demonstrate severe, but not otherwise classifiable, upper-extremity deformities, which usually cannot be placed into one of three previously described phocomelia groups. Additionally, these phocomelic extremities do not demonstrate true segmental deficits; the limb is also abnormal proximal and distal to the segmental defect. The purpose of this investigation was to present evidence that upper-extremity abnormalities in patients previously diagnosed as having phocomelia in fact represent a proximal continuum of radial or ulnar longitudinal dysplasia. The charts and radiographs of forty-one patients (sixty extremities) diagnosed as having upper-extremity phocomelia were reviewed retrospectively. On the basis of the findings on the radiographs, the disorders were categorized into three groups: (1) proximal radial longitudinal dysplasia, which was characterized by an absent proximal part of the humerus, a nearly normal distal part of the humerus, a completely absent radius, and a radial-sided hand dysplasia; (2) proximal ulnar longitudinal dysplasia, characterized by a short one-bone upper extremity that bifurcated distally and by severe hand abnormalities compatible with ulnar dysplasia; and (3) severe combined dysplasia, with type A characterized by an absence of the forearm segment (i.e., the radius and ulna) and type B characterized by absence of the arm and forearm (i.e., the hand attached to the thorax). Twenty-nine limbs in sixteen patients could be classified as having proximal radial longitudinal dysplasia. Systemic medical conditions such as thrombocytopenia-absent radius syndrome were common in those patients, but additional musculoskeletal conditions were rare. Twenty limbs in seventeen patients could be classified as having proximal ulnar longitudinal dysplasia. Associated musculoskeletal abnormalities, such as proximal femoral

Climate Extreme Events over Northern Eurasia in Changing Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Bulygina, O.; Korshunova, N. N.; Razuvaev, V. N.; Groisman, P. Y.

2014-12-01

During the period of widespread instrumental observations in Northern Eurasia, the annual surface air temperature has increased by 1.5°C. Close to the north in the Arctic Ocean, the late summer sea ice extent has decreased by 40% providing a near-infinite source of water vapor for the dry Arctic atmosphere in the early cold season months. The contemporary sea ice changes are especially visible in the Eastern Hemisphere All these factors affect the change extreme events. Daily and sub-daily data of 940 stations to analyze variations in the space time distribution of extreme temperatures, precipitation, and wind over Russia were used. Changing in number of days with thaw over Russia was described. The total seasonal numbers of days, when daily surface air temperatures (wind, precipitation) were found to be above (below) selected thresholds, were used as indices of climate extremes. Changing in difference between maximum and minimum temperature (DTR) may produce a variety of effects on biological systems. All values falling within the intervals ranged from the lowest percentile to the 5th percentile and from the 95th percentile to the highest percentile for the time period of interest were considered as daily extremes. The number of days, N, when daily temperatures (wind, precipitation, DTR) were within the above mentioned intervals, was determined for the seasons of each year. Linear trends in the number of days were calculated for each station and for quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. Regional analysis of extreme events was carried out using quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. Maps (climatology, trends) are presented mostly for visualization purposes. Differences in regional characteristics of extreme events are accounted for over a large extent of the Russian territory and variety of its physical and geographical conditions. The number of days with maximum temperatures higher than the 95% percentile has increased in most of Russia and decreased in Siberia in

Ontogeny of sensorimotor gating and short-term memory processing throughout the adolescent period in rats

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anja A. Goepfrich

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Adolescence and puberty are highly susceptible developmental periods during which the neuronal organization and maturation of the brain is completed. The endocannabinoid (eCB system, which is well known to modulate cognitive processing, undergoes profound and transient developmental changes during adolescence. With the present study we were aiming to examine the ontogeny of cognitive skills throughout adolescence in male rats and clarify the potential modulatory role of CB1 receptor signalling. Cognitive skills were assessed repeatedly every 10th day in rats throughout adolescence. All animals were tested for object recognition memory and prepulse inhibition of the acoustic startle reflex. Although cognitive performance in short-term memory as well as sensorimotor gating abilities were decreased during puberty compared to adulthood, both tasks were found to show different developmental trajectories throughout adolescence. A low dose of the CB1 receptor antagonist/inverse agonist SR141716 was found to improve recognition memory specifically in pubertal animals while not affecting behavioral performance at other ages tested. The present findings demonstrate that the developmental trajectory of cognitive abilities does not occur linearly for all cognitive processes and is strongly influenced by pubertal maturation. Developmental alterations within the eCB system at puberty onset may be involved in these changes in cognitive processing.

Flood protection diversification to reduce probabilities of extreme losses.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Qian; Lambert, James H; Karvetski, Christopher W; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Linkov, Igor

2012-11-01

Recent catastrophic losses because of floods require developing resilient approaches to flood risk protection. This article assesses how diversification of a system of coastal protections might decrease the probabilities of extreme flood losses. The study compares the performance of portfolios each consisting of four types of flood protection assets in a large region of dike rings. A parametric analysis suggests conditions in which diversifications of the types of included flood protection assets decrease extreme flood losses. Increased return periods of extreme losses are associated with portfolios where the asset types have low correlations of economic risk. The effort highlights the importance of understanding correlations across asset types in planning for large-scale flood protection. It allows explicit integration of climate change scenarios in developing flood mitigation strategy. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Attribution of extreme weather and climate-related events.

Science.gov (United States)

Stott, Peter A; Christidis, Nikolaos; Otto, Friederike E L; Sun, Ying; Vanderlinden, Jean-Paul; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Vautard, Robert; von Storch, Hans; Walton, Peter; Yiou, Pascal; Zwiers, Francis W

2016-01-01

Extreme weather and climate-related events occur in a particular place, by definition, infrequently. It is therefore challenging to detect systematic changes in their occurrence given the relative shortness of observational records. However, there is a clear interest from outside the climate science community in the extent to which recent damaging extreme events can be linked to human-induced climate change or natural climate variability. Event attribution studies seek to determine to what extent anthropogenic climate change has altered the probability or magnitude of particular events. They have shown clear evidence for human influence having increased the probability of many extremely warm seasonal temperatures and reduced the probability of extremely cold seasonal temperatures in many parts of the world. The evidence for human influence on the probability of extreme precipitation events, droughts, and storms is more mixed. Although the science of event attribution has developed rapidly in recent years, geographical coverage of events remains patchy and based on the interests and capabilities of individual research groups. The development of operational event attribution would allow a more timely and methodical production of attribution assessments than currently obtained on an ad hoc basis. For event attribution assessments to be most useful, remaining scientific uncertainties need to be robustly assessed and the results clearly communicated. This requires the continuing development of methodologies to assess the reliability of event attribution results and further work to understand the potential utility of event attribution for stakeholder groups and decision makers. WIREs Clim Change 2016, 7:23-41. doi: 10.1002/wcc.380 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.

Upper extremity disorders in heavy industry workers in Greece.

Science.gov (United States)

Tsouvaltzidou, Thomaella; Alexopoulos, Evangelos; Fragkakis, Ioannis; Jelastopulu, Eleni

2017-06-18

To investigate the disability due to musculoskeletal disorders of the upper extremities in heavy industry workers. The population under study consisted of 802 employees, both white- and blue-collar, working in a shipyard industry in Athens, Greece. Data were collected through the distribution of questionnaires and the recording of individual and job-related characteristics during the period 2006-2009. The questionnaires used were the Quick Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand (QD) Outcome Measure, the Work Ability Index (WAI) and the Short-Form-36 (SF-36) Health Survey. The QD was divided into three parameters - movement restrictions in everyday activities, work and sports/music activities - and the SF-36 into two items, physical and emotional. Multiple linear regression analysis was performed by means of the SPSS v.22 for Windows Statistical Package. The answers given by the participants for the QD did not reveal great discomfort regarding the execution of manual tasks, with the majority of the participants scoring under 5%, meaning no disability. After conducting multiple linear regression, age revealed a positive association with the parameter of restrictions in everyday activities (b = 0.64, P = 0.000). Basic education showed a statistically significant association regarding restrictions during leisure activities, with b = 2.140 ( P = 0.029) for compulsory education graduates. WAI's final score displayed negative charging in the regression analysis of all three parameters, with b = -0.142 ( P = 0.0), b = -0.099 ( P = 0.055) and b = -0.376 ( P = 0.001) respectively, while the physical and emotional components of SF-36 associated with movement restrictions only in daily activities and work. The participants' specialty made no statistically significant associations with any of the three parameters of the QD. Increased musculoskeletal disorders of the upper extremity are associated with older age, lower basic education and physical and mental/emotional health

Order effects and vowel decay in short-term memory: the neutralization hypothesis

OpenAIRE

Karypidis, Charalampos

2007-01-01

International audience; Information stored in short-term memory decays extremely fast compared to the content of long-termmemory. The nature of this memory loss being littleknown (random or systematic), this paper examinesthe presentation order effect in the light of the neutralization hypothesis, according to which the firstvowel in a pair decays, while retained in short-termmemory, toward [er]. Twelve French listeners participated in three AX roving discrimination sessions.For each of the 1...

Extreme waves at Filyos, southern Black Sea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Bilyay

2011-03-01

Full Text Available A wave measurement project was carried out for a new port planned in Filyos, in the Western Black Sea region of Turkey. The measurement at a depth of 12.5 m lasted for a period of two years and 7949 records were obtained. During the analysis, it was noticed that there were 209 records in which H/H_s ratio was higher than 2.0. These higher waves in a record are called extreme waves in this study. Although the purpose of wave measurement is not to investigate extreme waves, it is believed that studying these unexpected waves could be interesting. Therefore, detailed statistical and spectral analyses on the extreme waves were done for the records. The analyses results show that the distribution of surface profiles of the records containing extreme waves deviates from Gaussian distribution with the negative skewness changing between –0.01 and –0.4 and with the high kurtosis in the range of 3.1–4.2. Although the probability of occurrence of the extreme waves is over-predicted by the Rayleigh distribution, a higher ratio of H_s/η_rms indicates that the wave height distribution can be represented by Rayleigh. The average value of the slope of the frequency spectrum at the high frequency range is proportional to f^–9 which is much steeper than the typical wind-wave frequency power law, f^{–4, –5}. The directional spreading is measured with the parameter S_max and it is in the range of 5–70 for the extreme wave records. The wave and current interaction was also investigated and it was found that in most cases, extreme waves occur when the wave and the current are almost aligned. Furthermore, it is observed that extreme waves appear within a group of high waves.

Superconducting cyclotron magnet coil short

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mallory, M.L.; Blosser, H.G.; Clark, D.J.; Launer, H.; Lawton, D.; Miller, P.; Resmini, F.

1982-01-01

In February 1981, a short circuit appeared in the superconducting coil of the K500 cyclotron. The short is resistive in character and therefore has no effect on steady state operation of the magnet. The resistance of the short varies, sometimes being below threshold of detection as a heat load on the cooling system and sometimes being significant. The resistance under certain conditions shows approximately cyclic phenomena with time constants in the range of seconds and other approximately cyclic phenomena which correlate with gross operating parameters of the magnet (shifting current from one coil to another at high field and lowering and raising the liquid helium level). A number of diagnostic studies of the short have been made, using 1) an array of flux sensing loops to sense the magnetic effect of the short, 2) voltage comparisons between upper and lower sections of the coil, 3) comparisons of forces in the nine member coil support system and 4) the effect of the short on the thermal charactersitics of the coil. Insulation failure or a metal chip shorting out turns have been explored in some detail but a convincing determination of the exact cause of the short may never be available, (even the extreme step of unwinding the coil having a significant probability that an imperfection with the observed characteristics would pass unnoticed). Analysis of the characteristics of the short indicated that the most serious consequence would be failure of the coils mechanical support system in the event that the magnet was quickly discharged, as in a dump or quench. To deal with this hazard, the support system has been modified by installing solid supports which prevent the coil from moving by an amount sufficient to damage the support system. We have also reexamined the data and calculations used in the original coil design and have made some additional measurements of the properties of the materials (yield strength, friction coefficient, Young's modulus) used in the

Magnetic electrospun short nanofibers wrapped graphene oxide as a promising biomaterials for guiding cellular behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Zhang-Qi; Shi, Chuanmei; Zhao, Bin; Wang, Ting

2017-12-01

Magnetic particles show extremely wide application prospects in the biomedical field, particularly in the success of cellular manipulation, drug delivery systems, magnetic hyperthermia and NRI contrast enhancement. Graphene oxide with functional groups has a promising biological effect. In this work, we develop magnetic short-fibers wrapped graphene oxide for guiding cellular behavior with the aid of high-speed shear of nanofibers fabricated through electrospinning technique. The diameter and the length of short-fibers are about 300nm and 80μm, respectively. The short-fibers exhibit superior magnetic properties (saturation magnetization value: 50.33emu/g), which has a strong response appearance to the NdFeB magnet. SEM images and laser confocal images display that there has an extremely tight adhesion between the short-fibers wrapped graphene oxide and cells. The control of cell-fibers structure behavior can be realized by applying external magnet. The results may provide an attractive perspective on the treatment of disease with magnetic field. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Vertical structure of extreme currents in the Faroe-Bank Channel

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Carollo

2005-09-01

Full Text Available Extreme currents are studied with the aim of understanding their vertical and spatial structures in the Faroe-Bank Channel. Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler time series recorded in 3 deployments in this channel were investigated. To understand the main features of extreme events, the measurements were separated into their components through filtering and tidal analysis before applying the extreme value theory to the surge component. The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV distribution and the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD were used to study the variation of surge extremes from near-surface to deep waters. It was found that this component alone is not able to explain the extremes measured in total currents, particularly below 500 m. Here the mean residual flow enhanced by tidal rectification was found to be the component feature dominating extremes. Therefore, it must be taken into consideration when applying the extreme value theory, not to underestimate the return level for total currents. Return value speeds up to 250 cm s^–1 for 50/250 years return period were found for deep waters, where the flow is constrained by the topography at bearings near 300/330° It is also found that the UK Meteorological Office FOAM model is unable to reproduce either the magnitude or the form for the extremes, perhaps due to its coarse vertical and horizontal resolution, and is thus not suitable to model extremes on a regional scale.

Keywords. Oceanography: Physical (Currents; General circulation; General or miscellaneous

Procedure for the delivering of personal short-term visitor dosimeters

CERN Document Server

2016-01-01

Update of the administrative procedure for delivering a personal short-term visitor dosimeter to associated members of CERN’s personnel.   Associated members of the CERN personnel may request a short term visitor dosimeter if working only in Supervised Radiation Areas and for a period of less than two months in a calendar year. Such a dosimeter is delivered without the need to provide the usual regular documents: radiation passport, certificate from the home institute or medical certificate. Periodic verification will ensure that holders of these personal dosimeters do not exceed the maximum allowed personal dose for this type of dosimeter, which is the same as the limit for members of the public at 1 mSv per year. From now on, the two-month period can be spread over a calendar year, offering greater flexibility to users coming to CERN for multiple short periods. Please return unused dosimeters Persons leaving CERN for a period of more than one month should return their dosimeter to the D...

Crop insurance evaluation in response to extreme events

Science.gov (United States)

Moriondo, Marco; Ferrise, Roberto; Bindi, Marco

2013-04-01

Crop yield insurance has been indicated as a tool to manage the uncertainties of crop yields (Sherrick et al., 2004) but the changes in crop yield variability as expected in the near future should be carefully considered for a better quantitative assessment of farmer's revenue risk and insurance values in a climatic change regime (Moriondo et al., 2011). Under this point of view, mechanistic crop growth models coupled to the output of General/Regional Circulation Models (GCMs, RCMs) offer a valuable tool to evaluate crop responses to climatic change and this approach has been extensively used to describe crop yield distribution in response to climatic change considering changes in both mean climate and variability. In this work, we studied the effect of a warmer climate on crop yield distribution of durum wheat (Triticum turgidum L. subsp durum) in order to assess the economic significance of climatic change in a risk decision context. Specifically, the outputs of 6 RCMs (Tmin, Tmax, Rainfall, Global Radiation) (van der Linden and Mitchell 2009) have been statistically downscaled by a stochastic weather generator over eight sites across the Mediterranean basin and used to feed the crop growth model Sirius Quality. Three time slices were considered i) the present period PP (average of the period 1975-1990, [CO2]=350 ppm), 2020 (average of the period 2010-2030, SRES scenario A1b, [CO2]=415 ppm) and 2040 (average of the period 2030-2050, SRES scenario A1b, [CO2]=480 ppm). The effect of extreme climate events (i.e. heat stress at anthesis stage) was also considered. The outputs of these simulations were used to estimate the expected payout per hectare from insurance triggered when yields fall below a specific threshold defined as "the insured yield". For each site, the threshold was calculated as a fraction (70%) of the median of yield distribution under PP that represents the percentage of median yield above which indemnity payments are triggered. The results

Plasma control for efficient extreme ultra-violet source

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Takahashi, Kensaku; Nakajima, Mitsuo; Kawamura, Tohru; Shiho, Makoto; Hotta, Eiki; Horioka, Kazuhiko

2008-01-01

To generate a high efficiency extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) source, effects of plasma shape for controlling radiative plasmas based on xenon capillary discharge are experimentally investigated. The radiation characteristics observed via tapered capillary discharge are compared with those of straight one. From the comparison, the long emission period and different plasma behaviors of tapered capillary discharge are confirmed. This means that control of the plasma geometry is effective for prolonging the EUV emission period. This result also indicates that the plasma shape control seems to have a potential for enhancing the conversion efficiency. (author)

Formation of Low-Mass X-Ray Binaries. II. Common Envelope Evolution of Primordial Binaries with Extreme Mass Ratios

Science.gov (United States)

Kalogera, Vassiliki; Webbink, Ronald F.

1998-01-01

We study the formation of low-mass X-ray binaries (LMXBs) through helium star supernovae in binary systems that have each emerged from a common envelope phase. LMXB progenitors must satisfy a large number of evolutionary and structural constraints, including survival through common envelope evolution, through the post-common envelope phase, where the precursor of the neutron star becomes a Wolf-Rayet star, and survival through the supernova event. Furthermore, the binaries that survive the explosion must reach interaction within a Hubble time and must satisfy stability criteria for mass transfer. These constraints, imposed under the assumption of a symmetric supernova explosion, prohibit the formation of short-period LMXBs transferring mass at sub-Eddington rates through any channel in which the intermediate progenitor of the neutron star is not completely degenerate. Barring accretion-induced collapse, the existence of such systems therefore requires that natal kicks be imparted to neutron stars. We use an analytical method to synthesize the distribution of nascent LMXBs over donor masses and orbital periods and evaluate their birthrate and systemic velocity dispersion. Within the limitations imposed by observational incompleteness and selection effects, and our neglect of secular evolution in the LMXB state, we compare our results with observations. However, our principal objective is to evaluate how basic model parameters (common envelope ejection efficiency, rms kick velocity, primordial mass ratio distribution) influence these results. We conclude that the characteristics of newborn LMXBs are primarily determined by age and stability constraints and the efficiency of magnetic braking and are largely independent of the primordial binary population and the evolutionary history of LMXB progenitors (except for extreme values of the average kick magnitude or of the common envelope ejection efficiency). Theoretical estimates of total LMXB birthrates are not credible

Multidecadal oscillations in rainfall and hydrological extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Willems, Patrick

2013-04-01

Many studies have anticipated a worldwide increase in the frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes and floods since the last decade(s). Natural variability by climate oscillations partly determines the observed evolution of precipitation extremes. Based on a technique for the identification and analysis of changes in extreme quantiles, it is shown that hydrological extremes have oscillatory behaviour at multidecadal time scales. Results are based on nearly independent extremes extracted from long-term historical time series of precipitation intensities and river flows. Study regions include Belgium - The Netherlands (Meuse basin), Ethiopia (Blue Nile basin) and Ecuador (Paute basin). For Belgium - The Netherlands, the past 100 years showed larger and more hydrological extremes around the 1910s, 1950-1960s, and more recently during the 1990-2000s. Interestingly, the oscillations for southwestern Europe are anti-correlated with these of northwestern Europe, thus with oscillation highs in the 1930-1940s and 1970s. The precipitation oscillation peaks are explained by persistence in atmospheric circulation patterns over the North Atlantic during periods of 10 to 15 years. References: Ntegeka V., Willems P. (2008), 'Trends and multidecadal oscillations in rainfall extremes, based on a more than 100 years time series of 10 minutes rainfall intensities at Uccle, Belgium', Water Resources Research, 44, W07402, doi:10.1029/2007WR006471 Mora, D., Willems, P. (2012), 'Decadal oscillations in rainfall and air temperature in the Paute River Basin - Southern Andes of Ecuador', Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 108(1), 267-282, doi:0.1007/s00704-011-0527-4 Taye, M.T., Willems, P. (2011). 'Influence of climate variability on representative QDF predictions of the upper Blue Nile Basin', Journal of Hydrology, 411, 355-365, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.10.019 Taye, M.T., Willems, P. (2012). 'Temporal variability of hydro-climatic extremes in the Blue Nile basin', Water

Hydrometeorological extremes derived from taxation records for south-eastern Moravia, Czech Republic, 1751–1900 AD

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Valášek

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Historical written records associated with tax relief at ten estates located in south-eastern Moravia (Czech Republic are used for the study of hydrometeorological extremes and their impacts during the period 1751–1900 AD. At the time, the taxation system in Moravia allowed farmers to request tax relief if their crop yields had been negatively affected by hydrological and meteorological extremes. The documentation involved contains information about the type of extreme event and the date of its occurrence, while the impact on crops may often be derived. A total of 175 extreme events resulting in some kind of damage are documented for 1751–1900, with the highest concentration between 1811 and 1860 (74.9% of all events analysed. The nature of events leading to damage (of a possible 272 types include hailstorm (25.7%, torrential rain (21.7%, flood (21.0%, followed by thunderstorm, flash flood, late frost and windstorm. The four most outstanding events, affecting the highest number of settlements, were thunderstorms with hailstorms (25 June 1825, 20 May 1847 and 29 June 1890 and flooding of the River Morava (mid-June 1847. Hydrometeorological extremes in the 1816–1855 period are compared with those occurring during the recent 1961–2000 period. The results obtained are inevitably influenced by uncertainties related to taxation records, such as their temporal and spatial incompleteness, the limits of the period of outside agricultural work (i.e. mainly May–August and the purpose for which they were originally collected (primarily tax alleviation, i.e. information about hydrometeorological extremes was of secondary importance. Taxation records constitute an important source of data for historical climatology and historical hydrology and have a great potential for use in many European countries.

Comparing Evaporative Sources of Terrestrial Precipitation and Their Extremes in MERRA Using Relative Entropy

Science.gov (United States)

Dirmeyer, Paul A.; Wei, Jiangfeng; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Mocko, David M.

2014-01-01

A quasi-isentropic back trajectory scheme is applied to output from the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications and a land-only replay with corrected precipitation to estimate surface evaporative sources of moisture supplying precipitation over every ice-free land location for the period 1979-2005. The evaporative source patterns for any location and time period are effectively two dimensional probability distributions. As such, the evaporative sources for extreme situations like droughts or wet intervals can be compared to the corresponding climatological distributions using the method of relative entropy. Significant differences are found to be common and widespread for droughts, but not wet periods, when monthly data are examined. At pentad temporal resolution, which is more able to isolate floods and situations of atmospheric rivers, values of relative entropy over North America are typically 50-400 larger than at monthly time scales. Significant differences suggest that moisture transport may be the key to precipitation extremes. Where evaporative sources do not change significantly, it implies other local causes may underlie the extreme events.

Reliability and validity of the Chinese version of the Short Musculoskeletal Function Assessment questionnaire in patients with skeletal muscle injury of the upper or lower extremities.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Ying; He, Zehui; Lei, Lifang; Lin, Dingkun; Li, Yajie; Wang, Gang; Zhai, Huimin; Xu, Jingli; Zhang, Guangqing; Lin, Meizhen

2015-07-07

The Short Musculoskeletal Function Assessment (SMFA) questionnaire is one of the most commonly used scales to evaluate functional status and quality of life (QOL) of patients with a broad range of musculoskeletal disorders. However, a Chinese version of the SMFA questionnaire for the psychometric properties of skeletal muscle injury patients in China is still lacking. The current study translated the SMFA into Chinese and assessed its reliability and validity among Chinese patients with skeletal muscle injury of the upper or lower extremities. The original SMFA was translated from English into Chinese and culturally adapted according to cross-cultural adaptation guidelines. A multicenter cross-sectional study was conducted, comprising 339 skeletal muscle injury patients (aged 20-75 years) from 4 hospitals. The SMFA, the health survey short form (SF-36) along with a region-specific questionnaire (including the disabilities of the arm, shoulder, and hand questionnaire (DASH), the hip disability and osteoarthritis outcome score (HOOS), the knee injury and osteoarthritis outcome score (KOOS), and the foot function index (FFI)) were completed according to the region of injury. Reliability was estimated from the internal consistency using Cronbach's α and validity was assessed via convergent validity, known-groups comparison, and construct validity. Cronbach's α coefficient was over 0.75 for two subscales and four categories of the SMFA, suggesting that the internal consistency reliability of the SMFA was satisfactory. Known-groups comparison showed that the dysfunction index and the bother index of the SMFA discriminated well between patients who differed in age, gender, injury location, and operation status rather than in subgroups based on the body mass index (BMI). The convergent validity of the SMFA was good, as moderate to excellent correlations were found between the subscales of the SMFA and the four subscales of SF-36 (physical function, role-physical, bodily

Mandelbrot's Extremism

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Beirlant, J.; Schoutens, W.; Segers, J.J.J.

2004-01-01

In the sixties Mandelbrot already showed that extreme price swings are more likely than some of us think or incorporate in our models.A modern toolbox for analyzing such rare events can be found in the field of extreme value theory.At the core of extreme value theory lies the modelling of maxima

On the link between extreme floods and excess monsoon epochs in South Asia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kale, Vishwas [University of Pune, Department of Geography, Pune (India)

2012-09-15

This paper provides a synoptic view of extreme monsoon floods on all the nine large rivers of South Asia and their association with the excess (above-normal) monsoon rainfall periods. Annual maximum flood series for 18 gauging stations spread over four countries (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal) and long-term monsoon rainfall data were analyzed to ascertain whether the extreme floods were clustered in time and whether they coincided with multi-decade excess monsoon rainfall epochs at the basin level. Simple techniques, such as the Cramer's t-test, regression and Mann-Kendall (MK) tests and Hurst method were used to evaluate the trends and patterns of the flood and rainfall series. MK test reveals absence of any long-term tendency in all the series. However, the Cramer's t test and Hurst-Mandelbrot rescaled range statistic provide evidence that both rainfall and flood time series are persistent. Using the Cramer's t-test the excess monsoon epochs for each basin were identified. The excess monsoon periods for different basins were found to be highly asynchronous with respect to duration as well as the beginning and end. Three main conclusions readily emerge from the analyses. Extreme floods (>90th percentile) in South Asia show a tendency to cluster in time. About three-fourth of the extreme floods have occurred during the excess monsoon periods between {proportional_to}1840 and 2000 AD, implying a noteworthy link between the two. The frequency of large floods was higher during the post-1940 period in general and during three decades (1940s, 1950s and 1980s) in particular. (orig.)

NUSTAR and Xmm-Newton Observations of the Extreme Ultraluminous X-Ray Source NGC 5907 UlX1: A Vanishing Act

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Walton, D. J.; Harrison, F. A.; Bachetti, M.

2015-01-01

We present results obtained from two broadband X-ray observations of the extreme ultraluminous X-ray source (ULX) NGC 5907 ULX1, known to have a peak X-ray luminosity of ~5 × 1040 erg s–1. These XMM-Newton and NuSTAR observations, separated by only ~4 days, revealed an extreme level of short-term...

Progress in short period multilayer coatings for water window applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gullikson, E.M.; Salmassi, F.; Aquila, A.L.; Dollar, F.

2006-01-01

Absolute photoionization cross-section measurements for a mixture of ground and metastable states of Xe4+, Xe5+, and Xe6+ are reported in the photon energy range of 4d-nf transitions, which occur within or adjacent to the 13.5 nm window for extreme ultraviolet lithography light source development. The reported values allow the quantification of opacity effects in xenon plasmas due to these 4d-4f autoionizing states. The oscillator strengths for the 4d-4f and 4d-5f transitions in Xeq+ (q=1-6) ions are calculated using nonrelativistic Hartree-Fock and random phase approximations. These are compared with published experimental values for Xe+ to Xe3+ and with the values obtained from the present experimental cross-section measurements for Xe4+ to Xe6+. The calculations assisted in the determination of the metastable content in the ion beams for Xe5+T and Xe6+. The experiments were performed by merging a synchrotron photon beam generated by an undulator beamline of the Advanced Light Source with an ion beam produced by an electron cyclotron resonance ion source

Detecting the effect of urban land use on extreme precipitation in the Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rahimpour Golroudbary, Vahid; Zeng, Y.; Mannaerts, C.M.; Su, Z.

2017-01-01

A notable increase in heavy precipitation has been observed over the Netherlands in recent decades. The aim of this study was to assess the influences of urban land use on these extreme precipitation patterns. Significant differences between an earlier multi-decadal period and a recent period were

Extreme heat and cultural and linguistic minorities in Australia: perceptions of stakeholders.

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, Alana; Nitschke, Monika; Saniotis, Arthur; Benson, Jill; Tan, Yan; Smyth, Val; Wilson, Leigh; Han, Gil-Soo; Mwanri, Lillian; Bi, Peng

2014-06-03

Despite acclimatisation to hot weather, many individuals in Australia are adversely affected by extreme heat each summer, placing added pressure on the health sector. In terms of public health, it is therefore important to identify vulnerable groups, particularly in the face of a warming climate. International evidence points to a disparity in heat-susceptibility in certain minority groups, although it is unknown if this occurs in Australia. With cultural diversity increasing, the aim of this study was to explore how migrants from different cultural backgrounds and climate experiences manage periods of extreme heat in Australia. A qualitative study was undertaken across three Australian cities, involving interviews and focus groups with key informants including stakeholders involved in multicultural service provision and community members. Thematic analysis and a framework approach were used to analyse the data. Whilst migrants and refugees generally adapt well upon resettlement, there are sociocultural barriers encountered by some that hinder environmental adaptation to periods of extreme heat in Australia. These barriers include socioeconomic disadvantage and poor housing, language barriers to the access of information, isolation, health issues, cultural factors and lack of acclimatisation. Most often mentioned as being at risk were new arrivals, people in new and emerging communities, and older migrants. With increasing diversity within populations, it is important that the health sector is aware that during periods of extreme heat there may be disparities in the adaptive capacity of minority groups, underpinned by sociocultural and language-based vulnerabilities in migrants and refugees. These factors need to be considered by policymakers when formulating and disseminating heat health strategies.

Using Concept Maps to Teach a Nanotechnology Survey Short Course

Science.gov (United States)

Moyses, David D.; Rivet, Jennifer L.; Fahlman, Bradley D.

2010-01-01

We describe the use of concept maps within a 4-week nanotechnology survey course, designed for first-year undergraduate students. Because of the extremely short time frame of the class, students would be inundated with an overwhelming number of new concepts and definitions. Hence, we employed concept mapping to increase student retention and…

Roentgenoendovascular dilatation and recanalization of vessels of lower extremities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rabkin, I.Kh.; Matevosov, A.L.; Gotman, L.N.

1987-01-01

Advantages and disadvantages of using roentgenoendovascular dilatation (RED) of vessels of lower extremities are presented. RED is recommended in treating patients with short segmented stenoses of common and external illiac arteries and also with the similar damages of surficial femoral arteries. Dilatation is a success when there is permeability in at least one of the three central crus arteries. Success of delayed results of vessel dilatation is to a certain degree in inverse proportion to time and length of occlusion

Towards a short questionnaire for stepwise assessment of upper limb function, pain and stiffness in Duchenne muscular dystrophy.

Science.gov (United States)

Janssen, Mariska M H P; Geurts, Alexander C H; de Groot, Imelda J M

2018-04-01

Duchenne muscular dystrophy can lead to upper extremity limitations, pain and stiffness. In a previous study, these domains have been investigated using extensive questionnaires, which are too time-consuming for clinical practice. This study aimed at gaining insight into the underlying dimensions of these questionnaires, and to construct a short questionnaire that can be used for clinical assessment. Exploratory factor analysis was performed on the responses of 213 participants to a web-based survey to find the underlying dimensions in the Capabilities of Upper Extremity questionnaire, the ABILHAND questionnaire, and questionnaires regarding pain and stiffness. Based on these underlying dimensions, a stepwise approach was formulated. In addition, construct validity of the factors was investigated. In total, 14 factors were identified. All had high internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha >0.89) and explained 80-88% of the variance of the original questionnaires. Construct validity was supported, because participants in the early ambulatory stage performed significantly better (pDuchenne muscular dystrophy. Based on the factor commonalities, the Upper Limb Short Questionnaire was formulated. Implications for Rehabilitation New insights into the underlying dimensions of upper extremity function, pain and stiffness in Duchenne muscular dystrophy are gained. Fourteen factors, with good internal consistency and construct validity, are identified regarding upper extremity function, pain and stiffness in Duchenne muscular dystrophy. Based on these factors, the Upper Limb Short Questionnaire is presented. The Upper Limb Short Questionnaire can be used as an identifier of arm-hand limitations and the start of more thorough clinical investigation.

Confusion in the Periodic Table of the Elements.

Science.gov (United States)

Fernelius, W. C.; Powell, W. H.

1982-01-01

Discusses long (expanded), short (condensed), and pyramidal periodic table formats and documents events leading to a periodic table in which subgroups (families) are designated with the letters A and B, suggesting that this format is confusing for those consulting the table. (JN)

Causes of Glacier Melt Extremes in the Alps Since 1949

Science.gov (United States)

Thibert, E.; Dkengne Sielenou, P.; Vionnet, V.; Eckert, N.; Vincent, C.

2018-01-01

Recent record-breaking glacier melt values are attributable to peculiar extreme events and long-term warming trends that shift averages upward. Analyzing one of the world's longest mass balance series with extreme value statistics, we show that detrending melt anomalies makes it possible to disentangle these effects, leading to a fairer evaluation of the return period of melt extreme values such as 2003, and to characterize them by a more realistic bounded behavior. Using surface energy balance simulations, we show that three independent drivers control melt: global radiation, latent heat, and the amount of snow at the beginning of the melting season. Extremes are governed by large deviations in global radiation combined with sensible heat. Long-term trends are driven by the lengthening of melt duration due to earlier and longer-lasting melting of ice along with melt intensification caused by trends in long-wave irradiance and latent heat due to higher air moisture.

Extreme-Scale De Novo Genome Assembly

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Georganas, Evangelos [Intel Corporation, Santa Clara, CA (United States); Hofmeyr, Steven [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Joint Genome Inst.; Egan, Rob [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Computational Research Division; Buluc, Aydin [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Joint Genome Inst.; Oliker, Leonid [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Joint Genome Inst.; Rokhsar, Daniel [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Computational Research Division; Yelick, Katherine [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Joint Genome Inst.

2017-09-26

De novo whole genome assembly reconstructs genomic sequence from short, overlapping, and potentially erroneous DNA segments and is one of the most important computations in modern genomics. This work presents HipMER, a high-quality end-to-end de novo assembler designed for extreme scale analysis, via efficient parallelization of the Meraculous code. Genome assembly software has many components, each of which stresses different components of a computer system. This chapter explains the computational challenges involved in each step of the HipMer pipeline, the key distributed data structures, and communication costs in detail. We present performance results of assembling the human genome and the large hexaploid wheat genome on large supercomputers up to tens of thousands of cores.

Future projections of extreme precipitation using Advanced Weather Generator (AWE-GEN) over Peninsular Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Syafrina, A. H.; Zalina, M. D.; Juneng, L.

2014-09-01

A stochastic downscaling methodology known as the Advanced Weather Generator, AWE-GEN, has been tested at four stations in Peninsular Malaysia using observations available from 1975 to 2005. The methodology involves a stochastic downscaling procedure based on a Bayesian approach. Climate statistics from a multi-model ensemble of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs were calculated and factors of change were derived to produce the probability distribution functions (PDF). New parameters were obtained to project future climate time series. A multi-model ensemble was used in this study. The projections of extreme precipitation were based on the RCP 6.0 scenario (2081-2100). The model was able to simulate both hourly and 24-h extreme precipitation, as well as wet spell durations quite well for almost all regions. However, the performance of GCM models varies significantly in all regions showing high variability of monthly precipitation for both observed and future periods. The extreme precipitation for both hourly and 24-h seems to increase in future, while extreme of wet spells remain unchanged, up to the return periods of 10-40 years.

Short Text Messages (SMS) as an Additional Tool for Notifying Medical Staff in Case of a Hospital Mass Casualty Incident.

Science.gov (United States)

Timler, Dariusz; Bogusiak, Katarzyna; Kasielska-Trojan, Anna; Neskoromna-Jędrzejczak, Aneta; Gałązkowski, Robert; Szarpak, Łukasz

2016-02-01

The aim of the study was to verify the effectiveness of short text messages (short message service, or SMS) as an additional notification tool in case of fire or a mass casualty incident in a hospital. A total of 2242 SMS text messages were sent to 59 hospital workers divided into 3 groups (n=21, n=19, n=19). Messages were sent from a Samsung GT-S8500 Wave cell phone and Orange Poland was chosen as the telecommunication provider. During a 3-month trial period, messages were sent between 3:35 PM and midnight with no regular pattern. Employees were asked to respond by telling how much time it would take them to reach the hospital in case of a mass casualty incident. The mean reaction time (SMS reply) was 36.41 minutes. The mean declared time of arrival to the hospital was 100.5 minutes. After excluding 10% of extreme values for declared arrival time, the mean arrival time was estimated as 38.35 minutes. Short text messages (SMS) can be considered an additional tool for notifying medical staff in case of a mass casualty incident.

Theoretical growth rates, periods, and pulsation constants for long-period variables

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fox, M.W.; Wood, P.R.

1982-01-01

Theoretical values of the growth rate, period, and pulsation constant for the first three radial pulsation modes in red giants (Population II and galactic disk) and supergiants have been derived in the linear, nonadiabatic approximation. The effects of altering the surface boundary conditions, the effective temperature (or mixing length), and the opacity in the outer layers have been explored. In the standard models, the Q-value for the first overtone can be much larger (Q 1 1 roughly-equal0.04); in addition, the Q-value for the fundamental mode is reduced from previous values, as is the period ratio P 0 /P 1 . The growth rate for the fundamental mode is found to increase with luminosity on the giant branch while the growth rate for the first overtone decreases. Dynamical instabilities found in previous adiabatic models of extreme red giants do not occur when nonadiabatic effects are included in the models. In some massive, luminous models, period ratios P 0 /P 1 approx.7 occur when P 0 approx.2000--5000 days; it is suggested that the massive galactic supergiants and carbon stars which have secondary periods Papprox.2000--7000 days and primary periods Papprox.300--700 days are first-overtone pulsators in which the long secondary periods are due to excitation of the fundamental mode. Some other consequences of the present results are briefly discussed, with particular emphasis on the mode of pulsation of the Mira variables. Subject headings: stars: long-period variables: stars: pulsation: stars: supergiants

Intermittent and sustained periodic windows in networked chaotic Rössler oscillators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

He, Zhiwei; Sun, Yong; Zhan, Meng

2013-01-01

Route to chaos (or periodicity) in dynamical systems is one of fundamental problems. Here, dynamical behaviors of coupled chaotic Rössler oscillators on complex networks are investigated and two different types of periodic windows with the variation of coupling strength are found. Under a moderate coupling, the periodic window is intermittent, and the attractors within the window extremely sensitively depend on the initial conditions, coupling parameter, and topology of the network. Therefore, after adding or removing one edge of network, the periodic attractor can be destroyed and substituted by a chaotic one, or vice versa. In contrast, under an extremely weak coupling, another type of periodic window appears, which insensitively depends on the initial conditions, coupling parameter, and network. It is sustained and unchanged for different types of network structure. It is also found that the phase differences of the oscillators are almost discrete and randomly distributed except that directly linked oscillators more likely have different phases. These dynamical behaviors have also been generally observed in other networked chaotic oscillators

The dichotomous response of flood and storm extremes to rising global temperatures

Science.gov (United States)

Sharma, A.; Wasko, C.

2017-12-01

Rising temperature have resulted in increases in short-duration rainfall extremes across the world. Additionally it has been shown (doi:10.1038/ngeo2456) that storms will intensify, causing derived flood peaks to rise even more. This leads us to speculate that flood peaks will increase as a result, complying with the storyline presented in past IPCC reports. This talk, however, shows that changes in flood extremes are much more complex. Using global data on extreme flow events, the study conclusively shows that while the very extreme floods may be rising as a result of storm intensification, the more frequent flood events are decreasing in magnitude. The study argues that changes in the magnitude of floods are a function of changes in storm patterns and as well as pre-storm or antecedent conditions. It goes on to show that while changes in storms dominate for the most extreme events and over smaller, more urbanised catchments, changes in pre-storm conditions are the driving factor in modulating flood peaks in large rural catchments. The study concludes by providing recommendations on how future flood design should proceed, arguing that current practices (or using a design storm to estimate floods) are flawed and need changing.

How extreme is extreme hourly precipitation?

Science.gov (United States)

Papalexiou, Simon Michael; Dialynas, Yannis G.; Pappas, Christoforos

2016-04-01

The importance of accurate representation of precipitation at fine time scales (e.g., hourly), directly associated with flash flood events, is crucial in hydrological design and prediction. The upper part of a probability distribution, known as the distribution tail, determines the behavior of extreme events. In general, and loosely speaking, tails can be categorized in two families: the subexponential and the hyperexponential family, with the first generating more intense and more frequent extremes compared to the latter. In past studies, the focus has been mainly on daily precipitation, with the Gamma distribution being the most popular model. Here, we investigate the behaviour of tails of hourly precipitation by comparing the upper part of empirical distributions of thousands of records with three general types of tails corresponding to the Pareto, Lognormal, and Weibull distributions. Specifically, we use thousands of hourly rainfall records from all over the USA. The analysis indicates that heavier-tailed distributions describe better the observed hourly rainfall extremes in comparison to lighter tails. Traditional representations of the marginal distribution of hourly rainfall may significantly deviate from observed behaviours of extremes, with direct implications on hydroclimatic variables modelling and engineering design.

Observed and simulated temperature extremes during the recent warming hiatus

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sillmann, Jana; Donat, Markus G; Fyfe, John C; Zwiers, Francis W

2014-01-01

The discrepancy between recent observed and simulated trends in global mean surface temperature has provoked a debate about possible causes and implications for future climate change projections. However, little has been said in this discussion about observed and simulated trends in global temperature extremes. Here we assess trend patterns in temperature extremes and evaluate the consistency between observed and simulated temperature extremes over the past four decades (1971–2010) in comparison to the recent 15 years (1996–2010). We consider the coldest night and warmest day in a year in the observational dataset HadEX2 and in the current generation of global climate models (CMIP5). In general, the observed trends fall within the simulated range of trends, with better consistency for the longer period. Spatial trend patterns differ for the warm and cold extremes, with the warm extremes showing continuous positive trends across the globe and the cold extremes exhibiting a coherent cooling pattern across the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes that has emerged in the recent 15 years and is not reproduced by the models. This regional inconsistency between models and observations might be a key to understanding the recent hiatus in global mean temperature warming. (letters)

Impacts of climate extremes on gross primary production under global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williams, I N; Torn, M S; Riley, W J; Wehner, M F

2014-01-01

The impacts of historical droughts and heat-waves on ecosystems are often considered indicative of future global warming impacts, under the assumption that water stress sets in above a fixed high temperature threshold. Historical and future (RCP8.5) Earth system model (ESM) climate projections were analyzed in this study to illustrate changes in the temperatures for onset of water stress under global warming. The ESMs examined here predict sharp declines in gross primary production (GPP) at warm temperature extremes in historical climates, similar to the observed correlations between GPP and temperature during historical heat-waves and droughts. However, soil moisture increases at the warm end of the temperature range, and the temperature at which soil moisture declines with temperature shifts to a higher temperature. The temperature for onset of water stress thus increases under global warming and is associated with a shift in the temperature for maximum GPP to warmer temperatures. Despite the shift in this local temperature optimum, the impacts of warm extremes on GPP are approximately invariant when extremes are defined relative to the optimal temperature within each climate period. The GPP sensitivity to these relative temperature extremes therefore remains similar between future and present climates, suggesting that the heat- and drought-induced GPP reductions seen recently can be expected to be similar in the future, and may be underestimates of future impacts given model projections of increased frequency and persistence of heat-waves and droughts. The local temperature optimum can be understood as the temperature at which the combination of water stress and light limitations is minimized, and this concept gives insights into how GPP responds to climate extremes in both historical and future climate periods. Both cold (temperature and light-limited) and warm (water-limited) relative temperature extremes become more persistent in future climate projections

Hemolymphangioma of the lower extremities in children: two case reports

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kosmidis Ilias

2010-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background and purpose Hemo-lymphangiomas are rare benign tumors that arise from congenital malformation of the vascular system. They are usually diagnosed at birth or early in childhood. The management of hemo-lymphangiomas in children remains challenging because complete resection is often difficult to be achieved and recurrences are common. Methods We present the case of two children with a mass on their left tibia. Imaging modalities, plain radiograph, Ultrasonography and Magnetic Resonance were used to investigate the nature of the mass, the anatomical relationship to the neighboring tissues and help planning the surgical resection. The dominant diagnosis was hemo-lymphangioma. Both lesions increased in size in a short period of follow-up thus we decided to proceed to surgical excision. The diagnosis of hemo-lymphangioma was confirmed by histological examination of the surgical specimen. Post-operatively, seroma was formed to the first patient, managed by placing a drainage and immobilizing the limb on a splint. The second patient experienced no complications post-operatively. After 12 months of follow-up both patients had no complications or recurrence. Conclusions Very few cases of hemo-lymphangiomas of the extremities have been reported in the literature. Those tumors can grow slowly and remain asymptomatic for a long period of time or may become aggressive and enlarge rapidly, without invasive ability though. Radical resection is the choice of treatment offering the lowest recurrence rates. Other therapeutic methods are: aspiration and drainage, cryotherapy, injection of sclerotic agents and radiotherapy; although none of those offers better results that the surgical excision.

The time of onset of abnormal calcification in spondylometaepiphyseal dysplasia, short limb-abnormal calcification type

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tueysuez, Beyhan [Istanbul University, Department of Pediatric Genetics, Cerrahpasa Medical School, Istanbul (Turkey); Gazioglu, Nurperi [Istanbul University, Department of Neurosurgery, Cerrahpasa Medical School, Istanbul (Turkey); Uenguer, Savas [Istanbul University, Department of Pediatric Radiology, Cerrahpasa Medical School, Istanbul (Turkey); Aji, Dolly Yafet [Istanbul University, Department of Pediatrics, Cerrahpasa Medical School, Istanbul (Turkey); Tuerkmen, Seval [Istanbul University, Department of Pediatric Genetics, Cerrahpasa Medical School, Istanbul (Turkey); Universitatsklinikum Berlin, Charite Virchow-Klinik, Berlin (Germany)

2009-01-15

A 1-month-old boy with shortness of extremities on prenatal US was referred to our department with a provisional diagnosis of achondroplasia. His height was normal but he had short extremities and platyspondyly, premature carpal epiphyses on both hands, and short tubular bones with irregular metaphyses on radiographs. Re-evaluation of the patient at the age of 1 year revealed very short height and premature calcification of the costal cartilages and epiphyses. Spondylometaepiphyseal dysplasia (SMED), short limb-abnormal calcification type was diagnosed. This condition is a very rare autosomal recessively inherited disorder, and most of the patients die in early childhood due to neurological involvement. At the age of 2 years and 5 months, a CT scan showed narrowing of the cervical spinal canal. One month later he died suddenly because of spinal cord injury. In conclusion early diagnosis is very important because the recurrence risk is high and patients may die due to early neurological complications. The time of onset of abnormal calcifications, a diagnostic finding of the disease, is at the age of around 1 year in most patients. When abnormal calcifications are not yet present, but radiological changes associated with SMED are present, this rare disease must be considered. (orig.)

The time of onset of abnormal calcification in spondylometaepiphyseal dysplasia, short limb-abnormal calcification type

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tueysuez, Beyhan; Gazioglu, Nurperi; Uenguer, Savas; Aji, Dolly Yafet; Tuerkmen, Seval

2009-01-01

A 1-month-old boy with shortness of extremities on prenatal US was referred to our department with a provisional diagnosis of achondroplasia. His height was normal but he had short extremities and platyspondyly, premature carpal epiphyses on both hands, and short tubular bones with irregular metaphyses on radiographs. Re-evaluation of the patient at the age of 1 year revealed very short height and premature calcification of the costal cartilages and epiphyses. Spondylometaepiphyseal dysplasia (SMED), short limb-abnormal calcification type was diagnosed. This condition is a very rare autosomal recessively inherited disorder, and most of the patients die in early childhood due to neurological involvement. At the age of 2 years and 5 months, a CT scan showed narrowing of the cervical spinal canal. One month later he died suddenly because of spinal cord injury. In conclusion early diagnosis is very important because the recurrence risk is high and patients may die due to early neurological complications. The time of onset of abnormal calcifications, a diagnostic finding of the disease, is at the age of around 1 year in most patients. When abnormal calcifications are not yet present, but radiological changes associated with SMED are present, this rare disease must be considered. (orig.)

Making Energy-Water Nexus Scenarios more Fit-for-Purpose through Better Characterization of Extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Yetman, G.; Levy, M. A.; Chen, R. S.; Schnarr, E.

2017-12-01

Often quantitative scenarios of future trends exhibit less variability than the historic data upon which the models that generate them are based. The problem of dampened variability, which typically also entails dampened extremes, manifests both temporally and spatially. As a result, risk assessments that rely on such scenarios are in danger of producing misleading results. This danger is pronounced in nexus issues, because of the multiple dimensions of change that are relevant. We illustrate the above problem by developing alternative joint distributions of the probability of drought and of human population totals, across U.S. counties over the period 2010-2030. For the dampened-extremes case we use drought frequencies derived from climate models used in the U.S. National Climate Assessment and the Environmental Protection Agency's population and land use projections contained in its Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS). For the elevated extremes case we use an alternative spatial drought frequency estimate based on tree-ring data, covering a 555-year period (Ho et al 2017); and we introduce greater temporal and spatial extremes in the ICLUS socioeconomic projections so that they conform to observed extremes in the historical U.S. spatial census data 1790-present (National Historical Geographic Information System). We use spatial and temporal coincidence of high population and extreme drought as a proxy for energy-water nexus risk. We compare the representation of risk in the dampened-extreme and elevated-extreme scenario analysis. We identify areas of the country where using more realistic portrayals of extremes makes the biggest difference in estimate risk and suggest implications for future risk assessments. References: Michelle Ho, Upmanu Lall, Xun Sun, Edward R. Cook. 2017. Multiscale temporal variability and regional patterns in 555 years of conterminous U.S. streamflow. Water Resources Research. . doi: 10.1002/2016WR019632

Downscaling of Short-Term Precipitation from Regional Climate Models for Sustainable Urban Planning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Holger Hoppe

2012-05-01

Full Text Available A framework for downscaling precipitation from RCM projections to the high resolutions in time and space required in the urban hydrological climate change impact assessment is outlined and demonstrated. The basic approach is that of Delta Change, developed for both continuous and event-based applications. In both cases, Delta Change Factors (DCFs are calculated which represent the expected future change of some key precipitation statistics. In the continuous case, short-term precipitation from climate projections are analysed in order to estimate DCFs associated with different percentiles in the frequency distribution of non-zero intensities. The DCFs may then be applied to an observed time series, producing a realisation of a future time series. The event-based case involves downscaling of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF curves based on extreme value analysis of annual maxima using the Gumbel distribution. The resulting DCFs are expressed as a function of duration and frequency (i.e., return period and may be used to estimate future design storms. The applications are demonstrated in case studies focusing on the expected changes in short-term precipitation statistics until 2100 in the cities of Linz (Austria and Wuppertal (Germany. The downscaling framework is implemented in the climate service developed within the EU-project SUDPLAN.

Clinical application of lower extremity CTA and lower extremity perfusion CT as a method of diagnostic for lower extremity atherosclerotic obliterans

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moon, Il Bong; Dong, Kyung Rae [Dept. Radiological Technology, Gwangju Health University, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of); Goo, Eun Hoe [Dept. Radiological Science, Cheongju University, Cheongju (Korea, Republic of)

2016-11-15

The purpose of this study was to assess clinical application of lower extremity CTA and lower extremity perfusion CT as a method of diagnostic for lower extremity atherosclerotic obliterans. From January to July 2016, 30 patients (mean age, 68) were studied with lower extremity CTA and lower extremity perfusion CT. 128 channel multi-detector row CT scans were acquired with a CT scanner (SOMATOM Definition Flash, Siemens medical solution, Germany) of lower extremity perfusion CT and lower extremity CTA. Acquired images were reconstructed with 3D workstation (Leonardo, Siemens, Germany). Site of lower extremity arterial occlusive and stenosis lesions were detected superficial femoral artery 36.6%, popliteal artery 23.4%, external iliac artery 16.7%, common femoral artery 13.3%, peroneal artery 10%. The mean total DLP comparison of lower extremity perfusion CT and lower extremity CTA, 650 mGy-cm and 675 mGy-cm, respectively. Lower extremity perfusion CT and lower extremity CTA were realized that were never be two examination that were exactly the same legions. Future through the development of lower extremity perfusion CT soft ware programs suggest possible clinical applications.

Modified Inverse First Order Reliability Method (I-FORM) for Predicting Extreme Sea States.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia; Sallaberry, Cedric Jean-Marie; Dallman, Ann Renee; Neary, Vincent Sinclair

2014-09-01

Environmental contours describing extreme sea states are generated as the input for numerical or physical model simulation s as a part of the stand ard current practice for designing marine structure s to survive extreme sea states. Such environmental contours are characterized by combinations of significant wave height ( ) and energy period ( ) values calculated for a given recurrence interval using a set of data based on hindcast simulations or buoy observations over a sufficient period of record. The use of the inverse first - order reliability method (IFORM) i s standard design practice for generating environmental contours. In this paper, the traditional appli cation of the IFORM to generating environmental contours representing extreme sea states is described in detail and its merits and drawbacks are assessed. The application of additional methods for analyzing sea state data including the use of principal component analysis (PCA) to create an uncorrelated representation of the data under consideration is proposed. A reexamination of the components of the IFORM application to the problem at hand including the use of new distribution fitting techniques are shown to contribute to the development of more accurate a nd reasonable representations of extreme sea states for use in survivability analysis for marine struc tures. Keywords: In verse FORM, Principal Component Analysis , Environmental Contours, Extreme Sea State Characteri zation, Wave Energy Converters

PERIPHERAL BLOCK ANESTHESIA OF UPPER EXTREMITY AND ITS COMPLICATIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hakan Tapar

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Successful peripheral blocks and selection of appropriate technique according to surgery is possible with a good knowledge of anatomy. Regional peripheral block anesthesia of upper extremity which applied by single injection to plexus brachialis is the most recommended method of anesthesia in daily surgical procedures. The most important advantages of peripheral nerve blocks which are type of regional anesthesia according to general anesthesia and central blocks are less effect to respiration and hemodynamics and shortness of recovery time. If a plexus brachialis catheter is placed, control of pain is provided without using systemic narcotic analgesic. With these advantages; rare life threatening potential complications can be seen which are pneumothorax, hematoma, neuritis, allergy, systemic and neurologic complications. In this compilation we aimed to review again the complications of upper extremity nerve blocks according to block type. [J Contemp Med 2012; 2(3.000: 195-200

Thermodynamics of extremal rotating thin shells in an extremal BTZ spacetime and the extremal black hole entropy

Science.gov (United States)

Lemos, José P. S.; Minamitsuji, Masato; Zaslavskii, Oleg B.

2017-02-01

In a (2 +1 )-dimensional spacetime with a negative cosmological constant, the thermodynamics and the entropy of an extremal rotating thin shell, i.e., an extremal rotating ring, are investigated. The outer and inner regions with respect to the shell are taken to be the Bañados-Teitelbom-Zanelli (BTZ) spacetime and the vacuum ground state anti-de Sitter spacetime, respectively. By applying the first law of thermodynamics to the extremal thin shell, one shows that the entropy of the shell is an arbitrary well-behaved function of the gravitational area A+ alone, S =S (A+). When the thin shell approaches its own gravitational radius r+ and turns into an extremal rotating BTZ black hole, it is found that the entropy of the spacetime remains such a function of A+, both when the local temperature of the shell at the gravitational radius is zero and nonzero. It is thus vindicated by this analysis that extremal black holes, here extremal BTZ black holes, have different properties from the corresponding nonextremal black holes, which have a definite entropy, the Bekenstein-Hawking entropy S (A+)=A/+4G , where G is the gravitational constant. It is argued that for extremal black holes, in particular for extremal BTZ black holes, one should set 0 ≤S (A+)≤A/+4G;i.e., the extremal black hole entropy has values in between zero and the maximum Bekenstein-Hawking entropy A/+4 G . Thus, rather than having just two entropies for extremal black holes, as previous results have debated, namely, 0 and A/+4 G , it is shown here that extremal black holes, in particular extremal BTZ black holes, may have a continuous range of entropies, limited by precisely those two entropies. Surely, the entropy that a particular extremal black hole picks must depend on past processes, notably on how it was formed. A remarkable relation between the third law of thermodynamics and the impossibility for a massive body to reach the velocity of light is also found. In addition, in the procedure, it

Dynamically-downscaled projections of changes in temperature extremes over China

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Junhong; Huang, Guohe; Wang, Xiuquan; Li, Yongping; Lin, Qianguo

2018-02-01

In this study, likely changes in extreme temperatures (including 16 indices) over China in response to global warming throughout the twenty-first century are investigated through the PRECIS regional climate modeling system. The PRECIS experiment is conducted at a spatial resolution of 25 km and is driven by a perturbed-physics ensemble to reflect spatial variations and model uncertainties. Simulations of present climate (1961-1990) are compared with observations to validate the model performance in reproducing historical climate over China. Results indicate that the PRECIS demonstrates reasonable skills in reproducing the spatial patterns of observed extreme temperatures over the most regions of China, especially in the east. Nevertheless, the PRECIS shows a relatively poor performance in simulating the spatial patterns of extreme temperatures in the western mountainous regions, where its driving GCM exhibits more uncertainties due to lack of insufficient observations and results in more errors in climate downscaling. Future spatio-temporal changes of extreme temperature indices are then analyzed for three successive periods (i.e., 2020s, 2050s and 2080s). The projected changes in extreme temperatures by PRECIS are well consistent with the results of the major global climate models in both spatial and temporal patterns. Furthermore, the PRECIS demonstrates a distinct superiority in providing more detailed spatial information of extreme indices. In general, all extreme indices show similar changes in spatial pattern: large changes are projected in the north while small changes are projected in the south. In contrast, the temporal patterns for all indices vary differently over future periods: the warm indices, such as SU, TR, WSDI, TX90p, TN90p and GSL are likely to increase, while the cold indices, such as ID, FD, CSDI, TX10p and TN10p, are likely to decrease with time in response to global warming. Nevertheless, the magnitudes of changes in all indices tend to

Extrapolation of extreme response for different mooring line systems of floating wave energy converters

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ambühl, Simon; Sterndorff, Martin; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2014-01-01

Mooring systems for floating wave energy converters (WECs) are a major cost driver. Failure of mooring systems often occurs due to extreme loads. This paper introduces an extrapolation method for extreme response which accounts for the control system of a WEC that controls the loads onto...... measurements from lab-scaled WEPTOS WEC are taken. Different catenary anchor leg mooring (CALM) systems as well as single anchor legmooring (SALM)mooring systemsare implemented for a dynamic simulation with different number of mooring lines. Extreme tension loads with a return period of 50 years are assessed...... for the hawser as well as at the different mooring lines. Furthermore, the extreme load impact given failure of one mooring line is assessed and compared with extreme loads given no system failure....

InN/GaN short-period superlattices as ordered InGaN ternary alloys

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kusakabe, Kazuhide; Imai, Daichi; Wang, Ke; Yoshikawa, Akihiko

2016-01-01

Coherent (InN) 1 /(GaN) n short-period superlattices (SPSs) were successfully grown through dynamic atomic layer epitaxy (D-ALEp) mode by RF-plasma molecular beam epitaxy (MBE), where GaN layer thicknesses n were thinned down to 4 monolayer (ML). After this achievement, we demonstrated quasi-ternary InGaN behavior in their photoluminescence (PL) spectra for the first time. It was found interestingly that GaN layer thickness of n = 4 ML was the criterion both for structural control and continuum-band formation. Although highly lattice-mismatched InN/GaN interfaces easily introduce relaxation in (InN) 1 /(GaN) 4 SPSs during growth depending on the dynamic surface stoichiometry condition, this problem was overcome by precise control/removal of fluid-like residual In/Ga metals on the growth front with in-situ monitoring method. The (InN) 1 /(GaN) n SPSs with n ≥ 7 ML showed a constant PL peak energy around 3.2 eV at 12 K, reflecting discrete electron/hole wavefunctions. On the other hand, the (InN) 1 /(GaN) 4 SPSs indicated the red-shifted PL peak at 2.93 eV at 12 K, which was attributed to the continuum-band state with increasing in the overlap of electrons/hole wavefunctions. This result is concluded that the (InN) 1 /(GaN) 4 SPSs can be considered as ordered InGaN alloys. (copyright 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim)

Unexpected Impacts of Global warming on Extreme Warm Spells

Science.gov (United States)

Sardeshmukh, P. D.; Compo, G. P.; McColl, C.; Penland, C.

2017-12-01

It is generally presumed that the likelihood of extreme warm spells around the globe has increased, and will continue to increase, due to global warming. However, we find that this is generally not true in three very different types of global observational datasets and uncoupled atmospheric model simulations of the 1959 to 2012 period with prescribed observed global SSTs, sea ice, and radiative forcing changes. While extreme warm spells indeed became more common in many regions, in many other regions their likelihood remained almost the same or even decreased from the first half to the second half of this period. Such regions of unexpected changes covered nearly 40 percent of the globe in both winter and summer. The basic reason for this was a decrease of temperature variability in such regions that offset or even negated the effect of the mean temperature shift on extreme warm spell probabilities. The possibility of such an impact on extreme value probabilities was highlighted in a recent paper by Sardeshmukh, Compo, and Penland (Journal of Climate 2015). The consistency of the changes in extreme warm spell probabilities among the different observational datasets and model simulations examined suggests that they are robust regional aspects of global warming associated with atmospheric circulation changes. This highlights the need for climate models to represent not just the mean regional temperature signals but also the changes in subseasonal temperature variability associated with global warming. However, current climate models (both CMIP3 and CMIP5) generally underestimate the magnitude of the changes in the atmospheric circulation and associated temperature variability. A likely major cause of this is their continuing underestimation of the magnitude of the spatial variation of tropical SST trends. By generating an overly spatially bland tropical SST warming in response to changes in radiative forcing, the models spuriously mute tropically

Extreme Conditioning Programs: Potential Benefits and Potential Risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Knapik, Joseph J

2015-01-01

CrossFit, Insanity, Gym Jones, and P90X are examples of extreme conditioning programs (ECPs). ECPs typically involve high-volume and high-intensity physical activities with short rest periods between movements and use of multiple joint exercises. Data on changes in fitness with ECPs are limited to CrossFit investigations that demonstrated improvements in muscle strength, muscular endurance, aerobic fitness, and body composition. However, no study has directly compared CrossFit or other ECPs to other more traditional forms of aerobic and resistance training within the same investigation. These direct comparisons are needed to more adequately evaluate the effectiveness of ECPs. Until these studies emerge, the comparisons with available literature suggest that improvements in CrossFit, in terms of muscular endurance (push-ups, sit-ups), strength, and aerobic capacity, appear to be similar to those seen in more traditional training programs. Investigations of injuries in ECPs are limited to two observational studies that suggest that the overall injury rate is similar to that seen in other exercise programs. Several cases of rhabdomyolysis and cervical carotid artery dissections have been reported during CrossFit training. The symptoms, diagnosis, and treatment of these are reviewed here. Until more data on ECPs emerge, physical training should be aligned with US Army doctrine. If ECPs are included in exercise programs, trainers should (1) have appropriate training certifications, (2) inspect exercise equipment regularly to assure safety, (3) introduce ECPs to new participants, (4) ensure medical clearance of Soldiers with special health problems before participation in ECPs, (4) tailor ECPs to the individual Soldier, (5) adjust rest periods to optimize recovery and reduce fatigue, (6) monitor Soldiers for signs of overtraining, rhabdomyolysis, and other problems, and (7) coordinate exercise programs with other unit training activities to eliminate redundant activities

Prevalence, incidence and course of lower extremity injuries in runners during a 12-month follow-up period

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Poppel van, D.; Scholten-Peeters, G G M; van Middelkoop, M.; Verhagen, Arianne P

2014-01-01

To describe the incidence, 12-month prevalence, and course of lower extremity injuries that occurred during and after the Amgen Singelloop Breda in 2009. The design was based on a prospective cohort study with a population-based setting. In total, 3605 registered runners received a web-based

Addressing extreme precipitation change under future climates in the Upper Yangtze River Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Z.; Yuan, Z.; Gao, X.

2017-12-01

Investigating the impact of climate change on extreme precipitation accurately is of importance for application purposes such as flooding mitigation and urban drainage system design. In this paper, a systematical analysis framework to assess the impact of climate change on extreme precipitation events is developed and practiced in the Upper Yangtze River Basin (UYRB) in China. Firstly, the UYRB is gridded and five extreme precipitation indices (annual maximum 3- 5- 7- 15- and 30-day precipitation) are selected. Secondly, with observed precipitation from China's Ground Precipitation 0.5°×0.5° Gridded Dataset (V2.0) and simulated daily precipitation from ten general circulation models (GCMs) of CMIP5, A regionally efficient GCM is selected for each grid by the skill score (SS) method which maximizes the overlapped area of probability density functions of extreme precipitation indices between observations and simulations during the historical period. Then, simulations of assembled efficient GCMs are bias corrected by Equidistant Cumulative Distribution Function method. Finally, the impact of climate change on extreme precipitation is analyzed. The results show that: (1) the MRI-CGCM3 and MIROC-ESM perform better in the UYRB. There are 19.8 to 20.9% and 14.2 to 18.7% of all grids regard this two GCMs as regionally efficient GCM for the five indices, respectively. Moreover, the regionally efficient GCMs are spatially distributed. (2) The assembled GCM performs much better than any single GCM, with the SS>0.8 and SS>0.6 in more than 65 and 85 percent grids. (3) Under the RCP4.5 scenario, the extreme precipitation of 50-year and 100-year return period is projected to increase in most areas of the UYRB in the future period, with 55.0 to 61.3% of the UYRB increasing larger than 10 percent for the five indices. The changes are spatially and temporal distributed. The upstream region of the UYRB has a relatively significant increase compared to the downstream basin, while

Extreme value distributions

CERN Document Server

Ahsanullah, Mohammad

2016-01-01

The aim of the book is to give a through account of the basic theory of extreme value distributions. The book cover a wide range of materials available to date. The central ideas and results of extreme value distributions are presented. The book rwill be useful o applied statisticians as well statisticians interrested to work in the area of extreme value distributions.vmonograph presents the central ideas and results of extreme value distributions.The monograph gives self-contained of theory and applications of extreme value distributions.

A new ensemble model for short term wind power prediction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Henrik; Albu, Razvan-Daniel; Felea, Ioan

2012-01-01

As the objective of this study, a non-linear ensemble system is used to develop a new model for predicting wind speed in short-term time scale. Short-term wind power prediction becomes an extremely important field of research for the energy sector. Regardless of the recent advancements in the re-search...... of prediction models, it was observed that different models have different capabilities and also no single model is suitable under all situations. The idea behind EPS (ensemble prediction systems) is to take advantage of the unique features of each subsystem to detain diverse patterns that exist in the dataset...

Excess Mortality Attributable to Extreme Heat in New York City, 1997-2013.

Science.gov (United States)

Matte, Thomas D; Lane, Kathryn; Ito, Kazuhiko

2016-01-01

Extreme heat event excess mortality has been estimated statistically to assess impacts, evaluate heat emergency response, and project climate change risks. We estimated annual excess non-external-cause deaths associated with extreme heat events in New York City (NYC). Extreme heat events were defined as days meeting current National Weather Service forecast criteria for issuing heat advisories in NYC based on observed maximum daily heat index values from LaGuardia Airport. Outcomes were daily non-external-cause death counts for NYC residents from May through September from 1997 to 2013 (n = 337,162). The cumulative relative risk (CRR) of death associated with extreme heat events was estimated in a Poisson time-series model for each year using an unconstrained distributed lag for days 0-3 accommodating over dispersion, and adjusting for within-season trends and day of week. Attributable death counts were computed by year based on individual year CRRs. The pooled CRR per extreme heat event day was 1.11 (95%CI 1.08-1.14). The estimated annual excess non-external-cause deaths attributable to heat waves ranged from -14 to 358, with a median of 121. Point estimates of heat wave-attributable deaths were greater than 0 in all years but one and were correlated with the number of heat wave days (r = 0.81). Average excess non-external-cause deaths associated with extreme heat events were nearly 11-fold greater than hyperthermia deaths. Estimated extreme heat event-associated excess deaths may be a useful indicator of the impact of extreme heat events, but single-year estimates are currently too imprecise to identify short-term changes in risk.

Analysts forecast error : A robust prediction model and its short term trading

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Boudt, Kris; de Goeij, Peter; Thewissen, James; Van Campenhout, Geert

We examine the profitability of implementing a short term trading strategy based on predicting the error in analysts' earnings per share forecasts using publicly available information. Since large earnings surprises may lead to extreme values in the forecast error series that disrupt their smooth

Changes and Attribution of Extreme Precipitation in Climate Models: Subdaily and Daily Scales

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, W.; Villarini, G.; Scoccimarro, E.; Vecchi, G. A.

2017-12-01

Extreme precipitation events are responsible for numerous hazards, including flooding, soil erosion, and landslides. Because of their significant socio-economic impacts, the attribution and projection of these events is of crucial importance to improve our response, mitigation and adaptation strategies. Here we present results from our ongoing work.In terms of attribution, we use idealized experiments [pre-industrial control experiment (PI) and 1% per year increase (1%CO2) in atmospheric CO2] from ten general circulation models produced under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and the fraction of attributable risk to examine the CO2 effects on extreme precipitation at the sub-daily and daily scales. We find that the increased CO2 concentration substantially increases the odds of the occurrence of sub-daily precipitation extremes compared to the daily scale in most areas of the world, with the exception of some regions in the sub-tropics, likely in relation to the subsidence of the Hadley Cell. These results point to the large role that atmospheric CO2 plays in extreme precipitation under an idealized framework. Furthermore, we investigate the changes in extreme precipitation events with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) climate experiments using the scenarios consistent with the 1.5°C and 2°C temperature targets. We find that the frequency of annual extreme precipitation at a global scale increases in both 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios until around 2070, after which the magnitudes of the trend become much weaker or even negative. Overall, the frequency of global annual extreme precipitation is similar between 1.5°C and 2°C for the period 2006-2035, and the changes in extreme precipitation in individual seasons are consistent with those for the entire year. The frequency of extreme precipitation in the 2°C experiments is higher than for the 1.5°C experiment after the late 2030s, particularly for the period 2071-2100.

Use of short-radius centrifugation to augment ankle-brachial indices.

Science.gov (United States)

Grenon, S Marlene; Mateus, Jaime; Hsiang, York; Sidhu, Ravi; Young, Laurence; Gagnon, Joel

2009-06-01

Peripheral arterial disease is mainly caused by atherosclerosis and is characterized by decreased circulation, lower blood pressure, and insufficient tissue perfusion in the lower extremities. The hemodynamics of standing and altered gravity environments have been well studied relative to arm blood pressures but are less well understood for ankle pressures. Because regional blood pressure depends, in part, on the gravitational pressure gradient, we hypothesized that artificial gravity exposure on a short-arm centrifuge with the center of rotation above the head would increase blood pressure in the lower extremities. Cardiovascular parameters for 12 healthy subjects were measured during exposure to supine short-arm centrifugation at 20, 25, and 30 revolutions per minute (rpm), corresponding to centripetal accelerations of 0.94, 1.47, and 2.11 Gz at the foot level, respectively. Systolic ankle blood pressure significantly increased at all levels of centrifugation. Ankle-brachial indices (the ratio of systolic ankle to arm blood pressures) increased significantly from 1.17 +/- 0.03 to 1.58 +/- 0.03 at 0.94 Gz (P blood pressure significantly increased at 2.11 Gz, but heart rate did not change significantly. All parameters returned to normal after cessation of centrifugation. We demonstrated that short-radius centrifugation leads to an increase in ankle-brachial indices. This could have potential implications for the treatment of peripheral arterial disease.

Short Term Strategies for a Dynamic Multi-Period Routing Problem

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Angelelli, E.; Bianchessi, N.; Mansini, R.; Speranza, M. G.

2009-01-01

We consider a Dynamic Multi-Period Routing Problem (DMPRP) faced by a company which deals with on-line pick-up requests and has to serve them by a fleet of uncapacitated vehicles over a finite time horizon. When a request is issued, a deadline of a given number of days d ≤ 2 is associated to it: if

Ministers of Health: short-term tenure for long-term goals?

Science.gov (United States)

Ferraz, Marcos Bosi; Azevedo, Rafael Teixeira

2011-03-01

Healthcare investments should consider short and long-term demands. The objectives here were to compare the average tenures of ministers of health in Brazil and in another 22 countries and to evaluate the relationship between ministers' tenures and a number of indicators. Descriptive study conducted at Centro Paulista de Economia da Saúde (CPES). Twenty-two countries with the highest Human Development Indices (HDIs) and Brazil were included. The number of ministers over the past 20 years was investigated through each country's Ministry of Health website. Pearson's correlation coefficient was used to compare the number of ministers in each country with that country's indicators. The Mann-Whitney test was used to compare ministers' tenures in Brazil and other countries. The mean tenure (standard deviation, SD) of Brazilian ministers of health was 15 (12) months, a period that is statistically significantly shorter than the mean tenure of 33 (18) months in the other 22 countries (P < 0.05). There was a moderate and statistically significant positive correlation between the number of ministers and mortality rates for several conditions. The number of ministers also presented moderate and statistically significant negative correlations with per capita total healthcare expenditure (r = -0.567) and with per capita government healthcare expenditure (r = -0.530). On average, ministers of health have extremely short tenures. There is an urgent need to think and plan healthcare systems from a long-term perspective.

Interdecadal Change in Extreme Precipitation over South China and Its Mechanism

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

NING Liang; QIAN Yongfu

2009-01-01

Based on the daily precipitation data taken from 17 stations over South China during the period of 1961 2003, a sudden change in summer extreme precipitation events over South China in the early 1990s along with the possible mechanism connected with the anomalies of the latent heat flux over the South China Sea and the sensible heat flux over the Indochina peninsula are examined. The results show that both the annual and summer extreme precipitation events have obvious interdecadal variations and have increased significantly since the early 1990s. Moreover, the latent heat flux over the South China Sea and the sensible heat flux over the Indochina peninsula also have obvious interdecadal variations consistent with that of the extreme precipitation, and influence different months' extreme precipitation, respectively. Their effects are achieved by the interdecadal increases of the strengthening convection over South China through the South China Sea Summer Monsoon.

Satellite-Enhanced Dynamical Downscaling of Extreme Events

Science.gov (United States)

Nunes, A.

2015-12-01

Severe weather events can be the triggers of environmental disasters in regions particularly susceptible to changes in hydrometeorological conditions. In that regard, the reconstruction of past extreme weather events can help in the assessment of vulnerability and risk mitigation actions. Using novel modeling approaches, dynamical downscaling of long-term integrations from global circulation models can be useful for risk analysis, providing more accurate climate information at regional scales. Originally developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the Regional Spectral Model (RSM) is being used in the dynamical downscaling of global reanalysis, within the South American Hydroclimate Reconstruction Project. Here, RSM combines scale-selective bias correction with assimilation of satellite-based precipitation estimates to downscale extreme weather occurrences. Scale-selective bias correction is a method employed in the downscaling, similar to the spectral nudging technique, in which the downscaled solution develops in agreement with its coarse boundaries. Precipitation assimilation acts on modeled deep-convection, drives the land-surface variables, and therefore the hydrological cycle. During the downscaling of extreme events that took place in Brazil in recent years, RSM continuously assimilated NCEP Climate Prediction Center morphing technique precipitation rates. As a result, RSM performed better than its global (reanalysis) forcing, showing more consistent hydrometeorological fields compared with more sophisticated global reanalyses. Ultimately, RSM analyses might provide better-quality initial conditions for high-resolution numerical predictions in metropolitan areas, leading to more reliable short-term forecasting of severe local storms.

Observed variability of summer precipitation pattern and extreme events in East China associated with variations of the East Asian summer monsoon: VARIABILITY OF SUMMER PRECIPITATION AND EXTREME EVENT IN EAST CHINA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Lei [School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, China; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Qian, Yun [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Zhang, Yaocun [School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, China; Zhao, Chun [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Leung, L. Ruby [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Huang, Anning [School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, China; Xiao, Chuliang [Cooperative Institute for Limnology and Ecosystems Research, School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor MI USA

2015-11-09

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of interannual and interdecadal variations of summer precipitation and precipitation-related extreme events in China associated with variations of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) from 1979-2012. A high-quality daily precipitation dataset covering 2287 weather stations in China is analyzed. Based on the precipitation pattern analysis using empirical orthogonal functions, three sub-periods of 1979-1992 (period I), 1993-1999 (period II) and 2000-2012 (period III) are identified to be representative of the precipitation variability. Similar significant variability of the extreme precipitation indices is found across four sub-regions in eastern China. The spatial patterns of summer mean precipitation, the number of days with daily rainfall exceeding 95th percentile precipitation (R95p) and the maximum number of consecutive wet days (CWD) anomalies are consistent, but opposite to that of maximum consecutive dry days (CDD) anomalies during the three sub-periods. However, the spatial patterns of hydroclimatic intensity (HY-INT) are notably different from that of the other three extreme indices, but highly correlated to the dry events. The changes of precipitation anomaly patterns are accompanied by the change of the EASM regime and the abrupt shift of the position of the west Pacific subtropical high around 1992/1993 and 1999/2000, respectively, which influence the moisture transport that contributes most to the precipitation anomalies. Lastly, the EASM intensity is linked to sea surface temperature anomaly over the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean that influences deep convection over the oceans.

Detecting Climate Signals in Precipitation Extremes from TRMM (1998-2013) - Increasing Contrast Between Wet and Dry Extremes During the "Global Warming Hiatus"

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Huey-Tzu Jenny; Lau, William K.-M.

2016-01-01

We investigate changes in daily precipitation extremes using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data (1998-2013), which coincides with the "global warming hiatus." Results show a change in probability distribution functions of local precipitation events (LPEs) during this period consistent with previous global warming studies, indicating increasing contrast between wet and dry extremes, with more intense LPE, less moderate LPE, and more dry (no rain) days globally. Analyses for land and ocean separately reveal more complex and nuanced changes over land, characterized by a strong positive trend (+12.0% per decade, 99% confidence level (c.l.)) in frequency of extreme LPEs over the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during the wet season but a negative global trend (-6.6% per decade, 95% c.l.) during the dry season. A significant global drying trend (3.2% per decade, 99% c.l.) over land is also found during the dry season. Regions of pronounced increased dry events include western and central U.S., northeastern Asia, and Southern Europe/Mediterranean.

Future Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health over the Coterminous U.S.

Science.gov (United States)

Quattrochi, Dale A.; Crosson, William L.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.

2013-01-01

In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981- 2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a 'heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km), to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air temperatures, heat indices

Microbial ecology of extreme environments: Antarctic yeasts and growth in substrate-limited habitats

Science.gov (United States)

Vishniac, H. S.

1985-01-01

The high, dry valleys of the Ross Desert of Antarctic, characterized by extremely low temperatures, aridity and a depauperate biota, are used as an analog of the postulated extreme climates of other planetary bodies of the Solar System to test the hypothesis that if life could be supported by Ross, it might be possible where similar conditions prevail. The previously considered sterility of the Ross Desert soil ecosystem has yielded up an indigenous yeast, Cryptoccus vishniacci, which is able to resist the extremes of cold, wet and dry freezing, and long arid periods, while making minimal nutritional demands on the soil.

Extreme heat and cultural and linguistic minorities in Australia: perceptions of stakeholders

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

Background Despite acclimatisation to hot weather, many individuals in Australia are adversely affected by extreme heat each summer, placing added pressure on the health sector. In terms of public health, it is therefore important to identify vulnerable groups, particularly in the face of a warming climate. International evidence points to a disparity in heat-susceptibility in certain minority groups, although it is unknown if this occurs in Australia. With cultural diversity increasing, the aim of this study was to explore how migrants from different cultural backgrounds and climate experiences manage periods of extreme heat in Australia. Methods A qualitative study was undertaken across three Australian cities, involving interviews and focus groups with key informants including stakeholders involved in multicultural service provision and community members. Thematic analysis and a framework approach were used to analyse the data. Results Whilst migrants and refugees generally adapt well upon resettlement, there are sociocultural barriers encountered by some that hinder environmental adaptation to periods of extreme heat in Australia. These barriers include socioeconomic disadvantage and poor housing, language barriers to the access of information, isolation, health issues, cultural factors and lack of acclimatisation. Most often mentioned as being at risk were new arrivals, people in new and emerging communities, and older migrants. Conclusions With increasing diversity within populations, it is important that the health sector is aware that during periods of extreme heat there may be disparities in the adaptive capacity of minority groups, underpinned by sociocultural and language-based vulnerabilities in migrants and refugees. These factors need to be considered by policymakers when formulating and disseminating heat health strategies. PMID:24889099

Regional estimation of extreme suspended sediment concentrations using watershed characteristics

Science.gov (United States)

Tramblay, Yves; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.; St-Hilaire, André; Poulin, Jimmy

2010-01-01

SummaryThe number of stations monitoring daily suspended sediment concentration (SSC) has been decreasing since the 1980s in North America while suspended sediment is considered as a key variable for water quality. The objective of this study is to test the feasibility of regionalising extreme SSC, i.e. estimating SSC extremes values for ungauged basins. Annual maximum SSC for 72 rivers in Canada and USA were modelled with probability distributions in order to estimate quantiles corresponding to different return periods. Regionalisation techniques, originally developed for flood prediction in ungauged basins, were tested using the climatic, topographic, land cover and soils attributes of the watersheds. Two approaches were compared, using either physiographic characteristics or seasonality of extreme SSC to delineate the regions. Multiple regression models to estimate SSC quantiles as a function of watershed characteristics were built in each region, and compared to a global model including all sites. Regional estimates of SSC quantiles were compared with the local values. Results show that regional estimation of extreme SSC is more efficient than a global regression model including all sites. Groups/regions of stations have been identified, using either the watershed characteristics or the seasonality of occurrence for extreme SSC values providing a method to better describe the extreme events of SSC. The most important variables for predicting extreme SSC are the percentage of clay in the soils, precipitation intensity and forest cover.

Observation of quasi-periodic solar radio bursts associated with propagating fast-mode waves

Science.gov (United States)

Goddard, C. R.; Nisticò, G.; Nakariakov, V. M.; Zimovets, I. V.; White, S. M.

2016-10-01

Aims: Radio emission observations from the Learmonth and Bruny Island radio spectrographs are analysed to determine the nature of a train of discrete, periodic radio "sparks" (finite-bandwidth, short-duration isolated radio features) which precede a type II burst. We analyse extreme ultraviolet (EUV) imaging from SDO/AIA at multiple wavelengths and identify a series of quasi-periodic rapidly-propagating enhancements, which we interpret as a fast wave train, and link these to the detected radio features. Methods: The speeds and positions of the periodic rapidly propagating fast waves and the coronal mass ejection (CME) were recorded using running-difference images and time-distance analysis. From the frequency of the radio sparks the local electron density at the emission location was estimated for each. Using an empirical model for the scaling of density in the corona, the calculated electron density was used to obtain the height above the surface at which the emission occurs, and the propagation velocity of the emission location. Results: The period of the radio sparks, δtr = 1.78 ± 0.04 min, matches the period of the fast wave train observed at 171 Å, δtEUV = 1.7 ± 0.2 min. The inferred speed of the emission location of the radio sparks, 630 km s-1, is comparable to the measured speed of the CME leading edge, 500 km s-1, and the speeds derived from the drifting of the type II lanes. The calculated height of the radio emission (obtained from the density) matches the observed location of the CME leading edge. From the above evidence we propose that the radio sparks are caused by the quasi-periodic fast waves, and the emission is generated as they catch up and interact with the leading edge of the CME. The movie associated to Fig. 2 is available at http://www.aanda.org

A Generalized Framework for Non-Stationary Extreme Value Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Ragno, E.; Cheng, L.; Sadegh, M.; AghaKouchak, A.

2017-12-01

Empirical trends in climate variables including precipitation, temperature, snow-water equivalent at regional to continental scales are evidence of changes in climate over time. The evolving climate conditions and human activity-related factors such as urbanization and population growth can exert further changes in weather and climate extremes. As a result, the scientific community faces an increasing demand for updated appraisal of the time-varying climate extremes. The purpose of this study is to offer a robust and flexible statistical tool for non-stationary extreme value analysis which can better characterize the severity and likelihood of extreme climatic variables. This is critical to ensure a more resilient environment in a changing climate. Following the positive feedback on the first version of Non-Stationary Extreme Value Analysis (NEVA) Toolbox by Cheng at al. 2014, we present an improved version, i.e. NEVA2.0. The upgraded version herein builds upon a newly-developed hybrid evolution Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach for numerical parameters estimation and uncertainty assessment. This addition leads to a more robust uncertainty estimates of return levels, return periods, and risks of climatic extremes under both stationary and non-stationary assumptions. Moreover, NEVA2.0 is flexible in incorporating any user-specified covariate other than the default time-covariate (e.g., CO2 emissions, large scale climatic oscillation patterns). The new feature will allow users to examine non-stationarity of extremes induced by physical conditions that underlie the extreme events (e.g. antecedent soil moisture deficit, large-scale climatic teleconnections, urbanization). In addition, the new version offers an option to generate stationary and/or non-stationary rainfall Intensity - Duration - Frequency (IDF) curves that are widely used for risk assessment and infrastructure design. Finally, a Graphical User Interface (GUI) of the package is provided, making NEVA