Sample records for extremely cold weather

  1. Public Perception of Extreme Cold Weather-Related Health Risk in a Cold Area of Northeast China. (United States)

    Ban, Jie; Lan, Li; Yang, Chao; Wang, Jian; Chen, Chen; Huang, Ganlin; Li, Tiantian


    A need exists for public health strategies regarding extreme weather disasters, which in recent years have become more frequent. This study aimed to understand the public's perception of extreme cold and its related health risks, which may provide detailed information for public health preparedness during an extreme cold weather event. To evaluate public perceptions of cold-related health risk and to identify vulnerable groups, we collected responses from 891 participants in a face-to-face survey in Harbin, China. Public perception was measured by calculating the score for each perception question. Locals perceived that extreme cold weather and related health risks were serious, but thought they could not avoid these risks. The significant difference in perceived acceptance level between age groups suggested that the elderly are a "high health risk, low risk perception" group, meaning that they are relatively more vulnerable owing to their high susceptibility and low awareness of the health risks associated with extreme cold weather. The elderly should be a priority in risk communication and health protective interventions. This study demonstrated that introducing risk perception into the public health field can identify vulnerable groups with greater needs, which may improve the decision-making of public health intervention strategies. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;11:417-421).

  2. Evaluation of the National Weather Service Extreme Cold Warning Experiment in North Dakota. (United States)

    Chiu, Cindy H; Vagi, Sara J; Wolkin, Amy F; Martin, John Paul; Noe, Rebecca S


    Dangerously cold weather threatens life and property. During periods of extreme cold due to wind chill, the National Weather Service (NWS) issues wind chill warnings to prompt the public to take action to mitigate risks. Wind chill warnings are based on ambient temperatures and wind speeds. Since 2010, NWS has piloted a new extreme cold warning issued for cold temperatures in wind and nonwind conditions. The North Dakota Department of Health, NWS, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention collaborated in conducting household surveys in Burleigh County, North Dakota, to evaluate this new warning. The objectives of the evaluation were to assess whether residents heard the new warning and to determine if protective behaviors were prompted by the warning. This was a cross-sectional survey design using the Community Assessment for Public Health Emergency Response (CASPER) methodology to select a statistically representative sample of households from Burleigh County. From 10 to 11 April 2012, 188 door-to-door household interviews were completed. The CASPER methodology uses probability sampling with weighted analysis to estimate the number and percentage of households with a specific response within Burleigh County. The majority of households reported having heard both the extreme cold and wind chill warnings, and both warnings prompted protective behaviors. These results suggest this community heard the new warning and took protective actions after hearing the warning.

  3. Weakened cyclones, intensified anticyclones and recent extreme cold winter weather events in Eurasia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Xiangdong; Lu Chuhan; Guan Zhaoyong


    Extreme cold winter weather events over Eurasia have occurred more frequently in recent years in spite of a warming global climate. To gain further insight into this regional mismatch with the global mean warming trend, we analyzed winter cyclone and anticyclone activities, and their interplay with the regional atmospheric circulation pattern characterized by the semi-permanent Siberian high. We found a persistent weakening of both cyclones and anticyclones between the 1990s and early 2000s, and a pronounced intensification of anticyclone activity afterwards. It is suggested that this intensified anticyclone activity drives the substantially strengthening and northwestward shifting/expanding Siberian high, and explains the decreased midlatitude Eurasian surface air temperature and the increased frequency of cold weather events. The weakened tropospheric midlatitude westerlies in the context of the intensified anticyclones would reduce the eastward propagation speed of Rossby waves, favoring persistence and further intensification of surface anticyclone systems. (letter)

  4. Trends in Cold Extremes and Winter Weather for the SPTC Region (United States)


    Extreme weather poses multifaceted hazards to transportation. There is now increased awareness of the threats of climate variability and change on transportation safety and state of good repair. In particular, a non-stationary climate will potentiall...

  5. Cold-Weather Sports (United States)

    ... Videos for Educators Search English Español Cold-Weather Sports KidsHealth / For Teens / Cold-Weather Sports What's in this article? What to Do? Classes ... weather. What better time to be outdoors? Winter sports can help you burn calories, increase your cardiovascular ...

  6. Risk of hospitalization for fire-related burns during extreme cold weather. (United States)

    Ayoub, Aimina; Kosatsky, Tom; Smargiassi, Audrey; Bilodeau-Bertrand, Marianne; Auger, Nathalie


    Environmental factors are important predictors of fires, but no study has examined the association between outdoor temperature and fire-related burn injuries. We sought to investigate the relationship between extremely cold outdoor temperatures and the risk of hospitalization for fire-related burns. We carried out a time-stratified case-crossover study of 2470 patients hospitalized for fire-related burn injuries during cold months between 1989 and 2014 in Quebec, Canada. The main exposure was the minimum outdoor temperature on the day of and the day before the burn. We computed odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) to evaluate the relationship between minimum temperature and fire-related burns, and assessed how associations varied across sex and age. Exposure to extreme cold temperature was associated with a significantly higher risk of hospitalization for fire-related burns. Compared with 0°C, exposure to a minimum temperature of -30°C was associated with an OR of 1.51 (95% CI 1.22-1.87) for hospitalization for fire-related burns. The associations were somewhat stronger for women, youth, and the elderly. Compared with 0°C, a minimum temperature of -30°C was associated with an OR for fire-related burn hospitalization of 1.65 for women (95% CI 1.13-2.40), 1.60 for age fire-related burns. Measures to prevent fires should be implemented prior to the winter season, and enhanced during extreme cold. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Cold Weather and Cardiovascular Disease (United States)

    ... Venous Thromboembolism Aortic Aneurysm More Cold Weather and Cardiovascular Disease Updated:Sep 16,2015 Th is winter ... and procedures related to heart disease and stroke. Cardiovascular Conditions • Conditions Home • Arrhythmia and Atrial Fibrillation • Cardiac ...

  8. Mountain Warfare and Cold Weather Operations (United States)


    is important to determine whether the bottom is composed of sand, gravel, silt, clay , or rock and in what proportions. For more information see ATP...these planning factors by about two quarts per individual. 6-22. Water increases in viscosity in extreme cold weather, and therefore moves slower...In arctic conditions, fuel spilled on flesh can cause instant frostbite if the proper gloves are not worn. 6-32. Multi- viscosity oil (15W-40) is

  9. World Weather Extremes. Revision, (United States)


    Ext r-,ncs, Weekl Weather and Crop Bull, Vol. 43, No. 9, pp. 6-8, 27 Feb 56. 21A. ntoli, La Piu Alta Temperatura del Mondo," [The HiLhest Temperi... Temperatura in Libia", Boll Soc Geogr Ita’iana, ser. 8, Vol. 7, pp. 59-71, 1954. 23J. Gentilli, "Libyan Climate", Geograph Rev, V0 l. 45, No. 2, p. 269 S" Apr

  10. A decade of weather extremes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Coumou, Dim; Rahmstorf, Stefan

    The ostensibly large number of recent extreme weather events has triggered intensive discussions, both in- and outside the scientific community, on whether they are related to global warming. Here, we review the evidence and argue that for some types of extreme - notably heatwaves, but also

  11. Climate change & extreme weather vulnerability assessment framework. (United States)


    The Federal Highway Administrations (FHWAs) Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability : Assessment Framework is a guide for transportation agencies interested in assessing their vulnerability : to climate change and extreme weather event...

  12. The greenhouse effect and extreme weather

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groenaas, Sigbjoern; Kvamstoe, Nils Gunnar


    The article asserts that an anthropogenic global warming is occurring. This greenhouse effect is expected to cause more occurrences of extreme weather. It is extremely difficult, however, to relate specific weather catastrophes to global warming with certainty, since such extreme weather conditions are rare historically. The subject is controversial. The article also discusses the public debate and the risk of floods

  13. Extreme weather events and infectious disease outbreaks. (United States)

    McMichael, Anthony J


    Human-driven climatic changes will fundamentally influence patterns of human health, including infectious disease clusters and epidemics following extreme weather events. Extreme weather events are projected to increase further with the advance of human-driven climate change. Both recent and historical experiences indicate that infectious disease outbreaks very often follow extreme weather events, as microbes, vectors and reservoir animal hosts exploit the disrupted social and environmental conditions of extreme weather events. This review article examines infectious disease risks associated with extreme weather events; it draws on recent experiences including Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the 2010 Pakistan mega-floods, and historical examples from previous centuries of epidemics and 'pestilence' associated with extreme weather disasters and climatic changes. A fuller understanding of climatic change, the precursors and triggers of extreme weather events and health consequences is needed in order to anticipate and respond to the infectious disease risks associated with human-driven climate change. Post-event risks to human health can be constrained, nonetheless, by reducing background rates of persistent infection, preparatory action such as coordinated disease surveillance and vaccination coverage, and strengthened disaster response. In the face of changing climate and weather conditions, it is critically important to think in ecological terms about the determinants of health, disease and death in human populations.

  14. Pushing the Envelope of Extreme Space Weather (United States)

    Pesnell, W. D.


    Extreme Space Weather events are large solar flares or geomagnetic storms, which can cost billions of dollars to recover from. We have few examples of such events; the Carrington Event (the solar superstorm) is one of the few that had superlatives in three categories: size of solar flare, drop in Dst, and amplitude of aa. Kepler observations show that stars similar to the Sun can have flares releasing millions of times more energy than an X-class flare. These flares and the accompanying coronal mass ejections could strongly affect the atmosphere surrounding a planet. What level of solar activity would be necessary to strongly affect the atmosphere of the Earth? Can we map out the envelope of space weather along the evolution of the Sun? What would space weather look like if the Sun stopped producing a magnetic field? To what extreme should Space Weather go? These are the extremes of Space Weather explored in this talk.

  15. Sensitivity of European wheat to extreme weather

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mäkinen, H; Kaseva, J; Trnka, M


    The frequency and intensity of extreme weather is increasing concomitant with changes in the global climate change. Although wheat is the most important food crop in Europe, there is currently no comprehensive empirical information available regarding the sensitivity of European wheat to extreme...... weather. In this study, we assessed the sensitivity of European wheat yields to extreme weather related to phenology (sowing, heading) in cultivar trials across Europe (latitudes 37.21° to 61.34° and longitudes −6.02° to 26.24°) during the period 1991–2014. All the observed agro-climatic extremes (≥31 °C...... wheat cultivars that responded positively (+10%) to drought after sowing, or frost during winter (−15 °C and −20 °C). Positive responses to extremes were often shown by cultivars associated with specific regions, such as good performance under high temperatures by southern-origin cultivars. Consequently...

  16. Extreme Weather and Climate: Workshop Report (United States)

    Sobel, Adam; Camargo, Suzana; Debucquoy, Wim; Deodatis, George; Gerrard, Michael; Hall, Timothy; Hallman, Robert; Keenan, Jesse; Lall, Upmanu; Levy, Marc; hide


    Extreme events are the aspects of climate to which human society is most sensitive. Due to both their severity and their rarity, extreme events can challenge the capacity of physical, social, economic and political infrastructures, turning natural events into human disasters. Yet, because they are low frequency events, the science of extreme events is very challenging. Among the challenges is the difficulty of connecting extreme events to longer-term, large-scale variability and trends in the climate system, including anthropogenic climate change. How can we best quantify the risks posed by extreme weather events, both in the current climate and in the warmer and different climates to come? How can we better predict them? What can we do to reduce the harm done by such events? In response to these questions, the Initiative on Extreme Weather and Climate has been created at Columbia University in New York City (extreme This Initiative is a University-wide activity focused on understanding the risks to human life, property, infrastructure, communities, institutions, ecosystems, and landscapes from extreme weather events, both in the present and future climates, and on developing solutions to mitigate those risks. In May 2015,the Initiative held its first science workshop, entitled Extreme Weather and Climate: Hazards, Impacts, Actions. The purpose of the workshop was to define the scope of the Initiative and tremendously broad intellectual footprint of the topic indicated by the titles of the presentations (see Table 1). The intent of the workshop was to stimulate thought across disciplinary lines by juxtaposing talks whose subjects differed dramatically. Each session concluded with question and answer panel sessions. Approximately, 150 people were in attendance throughout the day. Below is a brief synopsis of each presentation. The synopses collectively reflect the variety and richness of the emerging extreme event research agenda.

  17. Cold weather oil spill response training

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Solsberg, L.B.; Owens, E.H.


    In April 2000, a three-day oil spill response training program was conducted on Alaska's North Slope. The unique hands-on program was specifically developed for Chevron Corporation's world-wide response team. It featured a combination of classroom and outdoor sessions that helped participants to learn and apply emergency measures in a series of field exercises performed in very cold weather conditions. Temperatures remained below minus 20 degrees C and sometimes reached minus 40 degrees C throughout the training. The classroom instructions introduced participants to the Emergency Prevention Preparedness and Response (EPPR) Working Group's Field Guide for Spill Response in Arctic Waters. This guide provides response strategies specific to the Arctic, including open water, ice and snow conditions. The sessions also reviewed the Alaska Clean Seas Tactics Manual which addresses spill containment and recovery, storage, tracking, burning and disposal. The issues that were emphasized throughout the training program were cold weather safety and survival. During the training sessions, participants were required to set up weather ports and drive snowmobiles and all terrain vehicles. Their mission was to detect oil with infra-red and hand-held devices. They were required to contain the oil by piling snow into snow banks, and by augering, trenching and slotting ice. Oil was removed by trimming operations on solid ice, snow melting, snow blowing, skimming and pumping. In-situ burning was also performed. Other sessions were also conducted develop skills in site characterization and treating oiled shorelines. The successfully conducted field sessions spanned all phases of a cleanup operation in cold weather. 5 refs., 7 figs

  18. Detection and attribution of extreme weather disasters (United States)

    Huggel, Christian; Stone, Dáithí; Hansen, Gerrit


    Single disasters related to extreme weather events have caused loss and damage on the order of up to tens of billions US dollars over the past years. Recent disasters fueled the debate about whether and to what extent these events are related to climate change. In international climate negotiations disaster loss and damage is now high on the agenda, and related policy mechanisms have been discussed or are being implemented. In view of funding allocation and effective risk reduction strategies detection and attribution to climate change of extreme weather events and disasters is a key issue. Different avenues have so far been taken to address detection and attribution in this context. Physical climate sciences have developed approaches, among others, where variables that are reasonably sampled over climatically relevant time periods and related to the meteorological characteristics of the extreme event are examined. Trends in these variables (e.g. air or sea surface temperatures) are compared between observations and climate simulations with and without anthropogenic forcing. Generally, progress has been made in recent years in attribution of changes in the chance of some single extreme weather events to anthropogenic climate change but there remain important challenges. A different line of research is primarily concerned with losses related to the extreme weather events over time, using disaster databases. A growing consensus is that the increase in asset values and in exposure are main drivers of the strong increase of economic losses over the past several decades, and only a limited number of studies have found trends consistent with expectations from climate change. Here we propose a better integration of existing lines of research in detection and attribution of extreme weather events and disasters by applying a risk framework. Risk is thereby defined as a function of the probability of occurrence of an extreme weather event, and the associated consequences

  19. Climate change and extreme events in weather

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshKumar, M.R.

    reported that the climate based extreme weather event is increasing throughout the world. One of the major chal- lenges before the scientists is to determine whether the ob- served change in extreme weather events exceeds the vari- ability expected through... was recorded in July 1943 on the hills of Mewar and Merwara. Unprecedent flood in Ajmer and Merwara devasted 50 villages and took a toll of 5000 lives (De et al., 2005). Severe Floods occurred to Godavari and Tungabhadra rivers in the last week of August...

  20. Weather extremes could affect agriculture (United States)

    Balcerak, Ernie


    As Earth's climate warms, agricultural producers will need to adapt. Changes, especially increases in extreme events, are already having an impact on food production, according to speakers at a 1 May session on agriculture and food security at the AGU Science Policy Conference. Christopher Field, director of the Department of Global Ecology at the Carnegie Institution for Science of Washington, D. C., pointed out the complex factors that come into play in understanding food security, including spatially varying controls and stresses, incomplete models, and the potential for threshold responses. Factors that are likely to cause problems include increasing population; increasing preference for meat, which needs more land and energy inputs to produce; climate change; and increasing use of agricultural lands for biomass energy.

  1. Sensitivity of European wheat to extreme weather

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Mäkinen, H.; Kaseva, J.; Trnka, Miroslav; Balek, Jan; Kersebaum, K. C.; Nendel, C.; Gobin, A.; Olesen, J. E.; Bindi, M.; Ferrise, R.; Moriondo, M.; Rodríguez, A.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Takáč, J.; Bezák, P.; Ventrella, D.; Ruget, F.; Capellades, G.; Kahiluoto, H.


    Roč. 222, jun (2018), s. 209-217 ISSN 0378-4290 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LO1415; GA MZe(CZ) QJ1610072 Institutional support: RVO:86652079 Keywords : Climate change * Cultivar * European wheat * Extreme * Weather * Yield response Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences Impact factor: 3.048, year: 2016

  2. Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas, Katherine [National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC (United States)


    A report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine concludes it is now possible to estimate the influence of climate change on some types of extreme events. The science of extreme event attribution has advanced rapidly in recent years, giving new insight to the ways that human-caused climate change can influence the magnitude or frequency of some extreme weather events. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities. Confidence is strongest in attributing types of extreme events that are influenced by climate change through a well-understood physical mechanism, such as, the more frequent heat waves that are closely connected to human-caused global temperature increases, the report finds. Confidence is lower for other types of events, such as hurricanes, whose relationship to climate change is more complex and less understood at present. For any extreme event, the results of attribution studies hinge on how questions about the event's causes are posed, and on the data, modeling approaches, and statistical tools chosen for the analysis.

  3. Cold weather effects on Dresden Unit 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anagnostopoulos, H. [Commonwealth Edison Co., Morris, IL (United States)


    Dresden Unit 1 is in the final stages of a decommissioning effort directed at preparing the unit to enter a SAFSTOR status. Following an extended sub-zero cold wave, about 55,000 gallons of water were discovered in the lowest elevation of the spherical reactor enclosure. Cold weather had caused the freezing and breaking of several service water lines that had not been completely isolated. Two days later, at a regularly scheduled decommissioning meeting, the event was communicated to the decommissioning team, who quickly recognized the potential for freezing of a 42 inches diameter Fuel Transfer Tube that connects the sphere to the Spent Fuel Pool. The team directed that the pool gates between the adjacent Spent Fuel Pool and the Fuel Transfer Pool be installed, and a portable source of heat was installed on the Fuel Transfer Tube. It was later determined that, with the fuel pool gates removed, and with a worst case freeze break at the 502 elevation on the Fuel Transfer Tube (in the Sphere), the fuel in the Spent Fuel Pool could be uncovered to a level 3 below the top of active fuel.

  4. Age and Ethnic Differences in Cold Weather and Contagion Theories of Colds and Flu (United States)

    Sigelman, Carol K.


    Age and ethnic group differences in cold weather and contagion or germ theories of infectious disease were explored in two studies. A cold weather theory was frequently invoked to explain colds and to a lesser extent flu but became less prominent with age as children gained command of a germ theory of disease. Explanations of how contact with…

  5. Extreme weather-related health needs of people who are homeless. (United States)

    Cusack, Lynette; van Loon, Antonia; Kralik, Debbie; Arbon, Paul; Gilbert, Sandy


    To identify the extreme weather-related health needs of homeless people and the response by homeless service providers in Adelaide, South Australia, a five-phased qualitative interpretive study was undertaken. (1) Literature review, followed by semi-structured interviews with 25 homeless people to ascertain health needs during extreme weather events. (2) Identification of homeless services. (3) Semi-structured interviews with 16 homeless service providers regarding their response to the health needs of homeless people at times of extreme weather. (4) Gap analysis. (5) Suggestions for policy and planning. People experiencing homelessness describe adverse health impacts more from extreme cold, than extreme hot weather. They considered their health suffered more, because of wet bedding, clothes and shoes. They felt more depressed and less able to keep themselves well during cold, wet winters. However, homeless service providers were more focussed on planning for extra service responses during times of extreme heat rather than extreme cold. Even though a city may be considered to have a temperate climate with a history of very hot summers, primary homeless populations have health needs during winter months. The experiences and needs of homeless people should be considered in extreme weather policy and when planning responses.

  6. Cold Stress (United States)

    ... Publications and Products Programs Contact NIOSH NIOSH COLD STRESS Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Workers who ... cold environments may be at risk of cold stress. Extreme cold weather is a dangerous situation that ...

  7. Extreme weather is increasing flood-related damage along ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)


    Jun 8, 2016 ... IDRC-supported researchers have found changes in weather patterns and in the intensity of extreme weather events are resulting in the ... the design of adaptation policies and risk management scenarios. ... Related articles ...

  8. Extreme weather: Subtropical floods and tropical cyclones (United States)

    Shaevitz, Daniel A.

    Extreme weather events have a large effect on society. As such, it is important to understand these events and to project how they may change in a future, warmer climate. The aim of this thesis is to develop a deeper understanding of two types of extreme weather events: subtropical floods and tropical cyclones (TCs). In the subtropics, the latitude is high enough that quasi-geostrophic dynamics are at least qualitatively relevant, while low enough that moisture may be abundant and convection strong. Extratropical extreme precipitation events are usually associated with large-scale flow disturbances, strong ascent, and large latent heat release. In the first part of this thesis, I examine the possible triggering of convection by the large-scale dynamics and investigate the coupling between the two. Specifically two examples of extreme precipitation events in the subtropics are analyzed, the 2010 and 2014 floods of India and Pakistan and the 2015 flood of Texas and Oklahoma. I invert the quasi-geostrophic omega equation to decompose the large-scale vertical motion profile to components due to synoptic forcing and diabatic heating. Additionally, I present model results from within the Column Quasi-Geostrophic framework. A single column model and cloud-revolving model are forced with the large-scale forcings (other than large-scale vertical motion) computed from the quasi-geostrophic omega equation with input data from a reanalysis data set, and the large-scale vertical motion is diagnosed interactively with the simulated convection. It is found that convection was triggered primarily by mechanically forced orographic ascent over the Himalayas during the India/Pakistan flood and by upper-level Potential Vorticity disturbances during the Texas/Oklahoma flood. Furthermore, a climate attribution analysis was conducted for the Texas/Oklahoma flood and it is found that anthropogenic climate change was responsible for a small amount of rainfall during the event but the

  9. Extreme climate, not extreme weather: the summer of 1816 in Geneva, Switzerland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Auchmann


    Full Text Available We analyze weather and climate during the "Year without Summer" 1816 using sub-daily data from Geneva, Switzerland, representing one of the climatically most severely affected regions. The record includes twice daily measurements and observations of air temperature, pressure, cloud cover, wind speed, and wind direction as well as daily measurements of precipitation. Comparing 1816 to a contemporary reference period (1799–1821 reveals that the coldness of the summer of 1816 was most prominent in the afternoon, with a shift of the entire distribution function of temperature anomalies by 3–4 °C. Early morning temperature anomalies show a smaller change for the mean, a significant decrease in the variability, and no changes in negative extremes. Analyzing cloudy and cloud-free conditions separately suggests that an increase in the number of cloudy days was to a significant extent responsible for these features. A daily weather type classification based on pressure, pressure tendency, and wind direction shows extremely anomalous frequencies in summer 1816, with only one day (compared to 20 in an average summer classified as high-pressure situation but a tripling of low-pressure situations. The afternoon temperature anomalies expected from only a change in weather types was much stronger negative in summer 1816 than in any other year. For precipitation, our analysis shows that the 80% increase in summer precipitation compared to the reference period can be explained by 80% increase in the frequency of precipitation, while no change could be found neither in the average intensity of precipitation nor in the frequency distribution of extreme precipitation. In all, the analysis shows that the regional circulation and local cloud cover played a dominant role. It also shows that the summer of 1816 was an example of extreme climate, not extreme weather.

  10. Economics of extreme weather events: Terminology and regional impact models


    Jahn, Malte


    Impacts of extreme weather events are relevant for regional (in the sense of subnational) economies and in particular cities in many aspects. Cities are the cores of economic activity and the amount of people and assets endangered by extreme weather events is large, even under the current climate. A changing climate with changing extreme weather patterns and the process of urbanization will make the whole issue even more relevant in the future. In this paper, definitions and terminology in th...

  11. Scaling a Survey Course in Extreme Weather (United States)

    Samson, P. J.


    "Extreme Weather" is a survey-level course offered at the University of Michigan that is broadcast via the web and serves as a research testbed to explore best practices for large class conduct. The course has led to the creation of LectureTools, a web-based student response and note-taking system that has been shown to increase student engagement dramatically in multiple courses by giving students more opportunities to participate in class. Included in this is the capacity to pose image-based questions (see image where question was "Where would you expect winds from the south") as well as multiple choice, ordered list, free response and numerical questions. Research in this class has also explored differences in learning outcomes from those who participate remotely versus those who physically come to class and found little difference. Moreover the technologies used allow instructors to conduct class from wherever they are while the students can still answer questions and engage in class discussion from wherever they are. This presentation will use LectureTools to demonstrate its features. Attendees are encouraged to bring a mobile device to the session to participate.

  12. Spatially explicit modelling of extreme weather and climate events ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The reality of climate change continues to influence the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, floods, and landslides. The impacts of the cumulative interplay of these extreme weather and climate events variation continue to perturb governments causing a scramble into formation ...

  13. Attribution of extreme weather and climate-related events. (United States)

    Stott, Peter A; Christidis, Nikolaos; Otto, Friederike E L; Sun, Ying; Vanderlinden, Jean-Paul; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Vautard, Robert; von Storch, Hans; Walton, Peter; Yiou, Pascal; Zwiers, Francis W


    Extreme weather and climate-related events occur in a particular place, by definition, infrequently. It is therefore challenging to detect systematic changes in their occurrence given the relative shortness of observational records. However, there is a clear interest from outside the climate science community in the extent to which recent damaging extreme events can be linked to human-induced climate change or natural climate variability. Event attribution studies seek to determine to what extent anthropogenic climate change has altered the probability or magnitude of particular events. They have shown clear evidence for human influence having increased the probability of many extremely warm seasonal temperatures and reduced the probability of extremely cold seasonal temperatures in many parts of the world. The evidence for human influence on the probability of extreme precipitation events, droughts, and storms is more mixed. Although the science of event attribution has developed rapidly in recent years, geographical coverage of events remains patchy and based on the interests and capabilities of individual research groups. The development of operational event attribution would allow a more timely and methodical production of attribution assessments than currently obtained on an ad hoc basis. For event attribution assessments to be most useful, remaining scientific uncertainties need to be robustly assessed and the results clearly communicated. This requires the continuing development of methodologies to assess the reliability of event attribution results and further work to understand the potential utility of event attribution for stakeholder groups and decision makers. WIREs Clim Change 2016, 7:23-41. doi: 10.1002/wcc.380 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.

  14. Study of Extreme Weather Hazards Using GRACE (United States)

    Zhang, Y.; Shum, C. K.; Shang, K.; Guo, J.; Schwartz, F. W.; Akyılmaz, O.; Feng, W.; Forootan, E.; LIU, G.; Zhong, M.


    Extreme weather events significantly affect humans and economics in the region. Synoptic and timely observations of these abrupt meteoro-hydrological hazards would benefit disaster management and improve storm forecasting. Contemporary processing of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) twin-satellite data at monthly sampling would miss or under-sample abrupt events such as large ice storms with durations much shorter than a month. Here, we employ the energy balance approach processing GRACE Level 1 data, which is flexible to allow sub-monthly solutions at daily sampling covering the genesis and evolution of large winter storms. We studied the 2008 Southeast China snow and ice storm, which lasted from mid-January to mid-February, and affected 21 out of China's 34 provinces with heavy snows, ice and freezing rains, caused extensive damage and transportation disruption, displaced nearly 1.7 million people, and claimed 129 lives. We also investigated the devastating North America blizzard which occurred during late January through mid-February 2010. The massive accumulations of snow and ice in both storms slightly changed the gravity field of the Earth, and were sensitive to the GRACE satellite measurements, manifested as transient terrestrial water storage (TWS) change. We compared our solutions with other available high temporal frequency GRACE solutions. The GRACE observed total storage change for both storms are in good agreement with in situ precipitation measurements, and with GRACE observations clearly show the complex genesis, decline, strengthening and melting phases depicting the detailed evolution of these example large snow storms.

  15. Impacts of extreme weather events on transport infrastructure in Norway (United States)

    Frauenfelder, Regula; Solheim, Anders; Isaksen, Ketil; Romstad, Bård; Dyrrdal, Anita V.; Ekseth, Kristine H. H.; Gangstø Skaland, Reidun; Harbitz, Alf; Harbitz, Carl B.; Haugen, Jan E.; Hygen, Hans O.; Haakenstad, Hilde; Jaedicke, Christian; Jónsson, Árni; Klæboe, Ronny; Ludvigsen, Johanna; Meyer, Nele K.; Rauken, Trude; Sverdrup-Thygeson, Kjetil


    century. The increase, both in total precipitation, and in the frequency and intensity of extreme events, is greatest in the west and southwest, and in parts of northern Norway, areas with the highest present precipitation. - Snowfall will increase due to increased precipitation in cold areas inland and at high elevations. In lower lying parts of the country, and along the coast, more precipitation as rain will replace snowfall. - The frequency of near-zero events, with freeze-thaw cycles, which can trigger rock falls, will decrease due to the generally increased temperatures. - The greatest uncertainties in the weather trends are linked to uncertainties in climate and emission scenarios, and to the downscaling. - More than 30% of the total length of road and railroads in Norway is exposed to snow avalanche and rock fall/slide hazard. As an example, one of the most exposed railroads, Raumabanen, has an annual probability of 1/3 to be hit by snow avalanches. - Total costs of geohazard impact on the road infrastructure (major roads only) were estimated to be roughly 100 mill. NOK per year, of which the costs of road closures comprise 70%. The numbers are unevenly distributed throughout the country, reflecting the topographic and climatic variability in Norway.

  16. Extreme weather events in Iran under a changing climate (United States)

    Alizadeh-Choobari, Omid; Najafi, M. S.


    Observations unequivocally show that Iran has been rapidly warming over recent decades, which in sequence has triggered a wide range of climatic impacts. Meteorological records of several ground stations across Iran with daily temporal resolution for the period 1951-2013 were analyzed to investigate the climate change and its impact on some weather extremes. Iran has warmed by nearly 1.3 °C during the period 1951-2013 (+0.2 °C per decade), with an increase of the minimum temperature at a rate two times that of the maximum. Consequently, an increase in the frequency of heat extremes and a decrease in the frequency of cold extremes have been observed. The annual precipitation has decreased by 8 mm per decade, causing an expansion of Iran's dry zones. Previous studies have pointed out that warming is generally associated with more frequent heavy precipitation because a warmer air can hold more moisture. Nevertheless, warming in Iran has been associated with more frequent light precipitation, but less frequent moderate, heavy and extremely heavy precipitation. This is because in the subtropical dry zones, a longer time is required to recharge the atmosphere with water vapour in a warmer climate, causing more water vapour to be transported from the subtropics to high latitudes before precipitations forms. In addition, the altitude of the condensation level increases in a warmer climate in subtropical regions, causing an overall decrease of precipitation. We argue that changing in the frequency of heavy precipitation in response to warming varies depending on the geographical location. Warming over the dry subtropical regions is associated with a decrease in the frequency of heavy precipitation, while an increase is expected over both subpolar and tropical regions. The warmer climate has also led to the increase in the frequency of both thunderstorms (driven by convective heating) and dust events over Iran.

  17. The waviness of the extratropical jet and daily weather extremes (United States)

    Röthlisberger, Matthias; Martius, Olivia; Pfahl, Stephan


    In recent years the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes have experienced a large number of weather extremes with substantial socio-economic impact, such as the European and Russian heat waves in 2003 and 2010, severe winter floods in the United Kingdom in 2013/2014 and devastating winter storms such as Lothar (1999) and Xynthia (2010) in Central Europe. These have triggered an engaged debate within the scientific community on the role of human induced climate change in the occurrence of such extremes. A key element of this debate is the hypothesis that the waviness of the extratropical jet is linked to the occurrence of weather extremes, with a wavier jet stream favouring more extremes. Previous work on this topic is expanded in this study by analyzing the linkage between a regional measure of jet waviness and daily temperature, precipitation and wind gust extremes. We show that indeed such a linkage exists in many regions of the world, however this waviness-extremes linkage varies spatially in strength and sign. Locally, it is strong only where the relevant weather systems, in which the extremes occur, are affected by the jet waviness. Its sign depends on how the frequency of occurrence of the relevant weather systems is correlated with the occurrence of high and low jet waviness. These results go beyond previous studies by noting that also a decrease in waviness could be associated with an enhanced number of some weather extremes, especially wind gust and precipitation extremes over western Europe.

  18. Event-adjusted evaluation of weather and climate extremes

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Müller, Miloslav; Kašpar, Marek


    Roč. 14, č. 2 (2014), s. 473-483 ISSN 1561-8633 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP209/11/1990 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : weather extreme * climate extreme * extremity evaluation * return period * generalized extreme value distribution * region of influence Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.735, year: 2014 http://www.nat-hazards- earth

  19. Public perceptions of climate change and extreme weather events (United States)

    Bruine de Bruin, W.; Dessai, S.; Morgan, G.; Taylor, A.; Wong-Parodi, G.


    Climate experts face a serious communication challenge. Public debate about climate change continues, even though at the same time people seem to complain about extreme weather events becoming increasingly common. As compared to the abstract concept of ';climate change,' (changes in) extreme weather events are indeed easier to perceive, more vivid, and personally relevant. Public perception research in different countries has suggested that people commonly expect that climate change will lead to increases in temperature, and that unseasonably warm weather is likely to be interpreted as evidence of climate change. However, relatively little is known about whether public concerns about climate change may also be driven by changes in other types of extreme weather events, such as exceptional amounts of precipitation or flooding. We therefore examined how perceptions of and personal experiences with changes in these specific weather events are related to public concerns about climate change. In this presentation, we will discuss findings from two large public perception surveys conducted in flood-prone Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (US) and with a national sample in the UK, where extreme flooding has recently occurred across the country. Participants completed questions about their perceptions of and experiences with specific extreme weather events, and their beliefs about climate change. We then conducted linear regressions to predict individual differences in climate-change beliefs, using perceptions of and experiences with specific extreme weather events as predictors, while controlling for demographic characteristics. The US study found that people (a) perceive flood chances to be increasing over the decades, (b) believe climate change to play a role in increases in future flood chances, and (c) would interpret future increases in flooding as evidence for climate change. The UK study found that (a) UK residents are more likely to perceive increases in ';wet' events such

  20. Extreme weather events: Should drinking water quality management systems adapt to changing risk profiles? (United States)

    Khan, Stuart J; Deere, Daniel; Leusch, Frederic D L; Humpage, Andrew; Jenkins, Madeleine; Cunliffe, David


    Among the most widely predicted and accepted consequences of global climate change are increases in both the frequency and severity of a variety of extreme weather events. Such weather events include heavy rainfall and floods, cyclones, droughts, heatwaves, extreme cold, and wildfires, each of which can potentially impact drinking water quality by affecting water catchments, storage reservoirs, the performance of water treatment processes or the integrity of distribution systems. Drinking water guidelines, such as the Australian Drinking Water Guidelines and the World Health Organization Guidelines for Drinking-water Quality, provide guidance for the safe management of drinking water. These documents present principles and strategies for managing risks that may be posed to drinking water quality. While these principles and strategies are applicable to all types of water quality risks, very little specific attention has been paid to the management of extreme weather events. We present a review of recent literature on water quality impacts of extreme weather events and consider practical opportunities for improved guidance for water managers. We conclude that there is a case for an enhanced focus on the management of water quality impacts from extreme weather events in future revisions of water quality guidance documents. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, and Human Health Implications in the Asia Pacific Region. (United States)

    Hashim, Jamal Hisham; Hashim, Zailina


    The Asia Pacific region is regarded as the most disaster-prone area of the world. Since 2000, 1.2 billion people have been exposed to hydrometeorological hazards alone through 1215 disaster events. The impacts of climate change on meteorological phenomena and environmental consequences are well documented. However, the impacts on health are more elusive. Nevertheless, climate change is believed to alter weather patterns on the regional scale, giving rise to extreme weather events. The impacts from extreme weather events are definitely more acute and traumatic in nature, leading to deaths and injuries, as well as debilitating and fatal communicable diseases. Extreme weather events include heat waves, cold waves, floods, droughts, hurricanes, tropical cyclones, heavy rain, and snowfalls. Globally, within the 20-year period from 1993 to 2012, more than 530 000 people died as a direct result of almost 15 000 extreme weather events, with losses of more than US$2.5 trillion in purchasing power parity. © 2015 APJPH.

  2. Warm Arctic episodes linked with increased frequency of extreme winter weather in the United States. (United States)

    Cohen, Judah; Pfeiffer, Karl; Francis, Jennifer A


    Recent boreal winters have exhibited a large-scale seesaw temperature pattern characterized by an unusually warm Arctic and cold continents. Whether there is any physical link between Arctic variability and Northern Hemisphere (NH) extreme weather is an active area of research. Using a recently developed index of severe winter weather, we show that the occurrence of severe winter weather in the United States is significantly related to anomalies in pan-Arctic geopotential heights and temperatures. As the Arctic transitions from a relatively cold state to a warmer one, the frequency of severe winter weather in mid-latitudes increases through the transition. However, this relationship is strongest in the eastern US and mixed to even opposite along the western US. We also show that during mid-winter to late-winter of recent decades, when the Arctic warming trend is greatest and extends into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, severe winter weather-including both cold spells and heavy snows-became more frequent in the eastern United States.

  3. Case report of cold-weather-induced radiation recall dermatitis after chemoradiotherapy with cisplatin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kindts, Isabelle; Stellamans, Karin; Planckaert, Nikie; Goethals, Laurence; Bonny, Michiel


    The radiation recall reaction (RRR) is an inflammatory reaction that occurs in previously irradiated areas. The phenomenon is probably due to an idiosyncratic hypersensitivity reaction, in which a second agent can recall the inflammatory reaction. This case report documents a cold-weather-induced radiation recall dermatitis (RRD). We observed a severe RRD in a patient after chemoradiotherapy treatment with cisplatin for a nasopharyngeal carcinoma, precipitated by cold temperatures, which developed 9 days after completion of therapy. In the medical literature, RRD following extreme cold temperatures seems to be a peculiar event. Until further information on the interaction is available, future studies on combined chemotherapy with cisplatin should be carefully monitored and any side effects clearly documented. This case suggests that environmental conditions may play a contributing role in the development of RRD. This case also implies that neither fraction size nor total radiation dose is a determining factor in the development of the dermatologic reaction. (orig.) [de

  4. Study on cold weather concreting using low-heat cement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hama, Yukio; Ryu Koto; Tomosawa, Fuminori


    In this paper, properties of frost damage at early age and strength development and thermal crack were studied, for purposes of application to the mass concrete of low-heat cement in cold weather, by means of concrete experiments and temperature analysis by finite element method. The experiments and the analysis result showed that the strength for resistance to frost damage at early age was 5N/mm 2 , the concrete strength correction value in terms of curing temperature was calculated approximately, and was effective in the resistance of thermal crack. And then, the application ranges of construction procedures were investigated. (author)

  5. CBR Operations in Cold Weather: A Bibliography. Volume 1 (United States)



  6. Extreme Weather Impacts on Maize Yield: The Case of Shanxi Province in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taoyuan Wei


    Full Text Available Extreme weather can have negative impacts on crop production. In this study, we statistically estimate the impacts of dry days, heat waves, and cold days on maize yield based on household survey data from 1993 to 2011 in ten villages of Shanxi province, China. Our results show that dry days, heat waves, and cold days have negative effects on maize yield, although these effects are marginal if these extreme events do not increase dramatically. Specifically, a one percent increase in extreme-heat-degree-days and consecutive-dry-days results in a maize yield declines of 0.2% and 0.07%, respectively. Maize yield also is reduced by 0.3% for cold days occurring during the growing season from May to September. However, these extreme events can increase dramatically in a warmer world and result in considerable reduction in maize yields. If all the historical temperatures in the villages are shifted up by 2 degrees Celsius, total impacts of these extreme events would lead to a reduction of maize yield by over 30 percent. The impacts may be underestimated since we did not exclude the offset effect of adaptation measures adopted by farmers to combat these extreme events.

  7. Extreme Space Weather Events: From Cradle to Grave (United States)

    Riley, Pete; Baker, Dan; Liu, Ying D.; Verronen, Pekka; Singer, Howard; Güdel, Manuel


    Extreme space weather events, while rare, can have a substantial impact on our technologically-dependent society. And, although such events have only occasionally been observed, through careful analysis of a wealth of space-based and ground-based observations, historical records, and extrapolations from more moderate events, we have developed a basic picture of the components required to produce them. Several key issues, however, remain unresolved. For example, what limits are imposed on the maximum size of such events? What are the likely societal consequences of a so-called "100-year" solar storm? In this review, we summarize our current scientific understanding about extreme space weather events as we follow several examples from the Sun, through the solar corona and inner heliosphere, across the magnetospheric boundary, into the ionosphere and atmosphere, into the Earth's lithosphere, and, finally, its impact on man-made structures and activities, such as spacecraft, GPS signals, radio communication, and the electric power grid. We describe preliminary attempts to provide probabilistic forecasts of extreme space weather phenomena, and we conclude by identifying several key areas that must be addressed if we are better able to understand, and, ultimately, predict extreme space weather events.

  8. Influences of extreme weather, climate and pesticide use on invertebrates in cereal fields over 42 years. (United States)

    Ewald, Julie A; Wheatley, Christopher J; Aebischer, Nicholas J; Moreby, Stephen J; Duffield, Simon J; Crick, Humphrey Q P; Morecroft, Michael B


    Cereal fields are central to balancing food production and environmental health in the face of climate change. Within them, invertebrates provide key ecosystem services. Using 42 years of monitoring data collected in southern England, we investigated the sensitivity and resilience of invertebrates in cereal fields to extreme weather events and examined the effect of long-term changes in temperature, rainfall and pesticide use on invertebrate abundance. Of the 26 invertebrate groups examined, eleven proved sensitive to extreme weather events. Average abundance increased in hot/dry years and decreased in cold/wet years for Araneae, Cicadellidae, adult Heteroptera, Thysanoptera, Braconidae, Enicmus and Lathridiidae. The average abundance of Delphacidae, Cryptophagidae and Mycetophilidae increased in both hot/dry and cold/wet years relative to other years. The abundance of all 10 groups usually returned to their long-term trend within a year after the extreme event. For five of them, sensitivity to cold/wet events was lowest (translating into higher abundances) at locations with a westerly aspect. Some long-term trends in invertebrate abundance correlated with temperature and rainfall, indicating that climate change may affect them. However, pesticide use was more important in explaining the trends, suggesting that reduced pesticide use would mitigate the effects of climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. How to assess extreme weather impacts - case European transport network (United States)

    Leviäkangas, P.


    To assess the impacts of climate change and preparing for impacts is a process. This process we must understand and learn to apply. EWENT (Extreme Weather impacts on European Networks of Transport) will be a test bench for one prospective approach. It has the following main components: 1) identifying what is "extreme", 2) assessing the change in the probabilities, 3) constructing the causal impact models, 4) finding appropriate methods of pricing and costing, 5) finding alternative strategy option, 6) assessing the efficiency of strategy option. This process follows actually the steps of standardized risk management process. Each step is challenging, but if EWENT project succeeds to assess the extreme weather impacts on European transport networks, it is one possible benchmark how to carry out similar analyses in other regions and on country level. EWENT approach could particularly useful for weather and climate information service providers, offering tools for transport authorities and financiers to assess weather risks, and then rationally managing the risks. EWENT project is financed by the European Commission and participated by met-service organisations and transport research institutes from different parts of Europe. The presentation will explain EWENT approach in detail and bring forth the findings of the first work packages.

  10. Spontaneous De-Icing Phenomena on Extremely Cold Surfaces (United States)

    Song, Dong; Choi, Chang-Hwan


    Freezing of droplets on cold surfaces is universal phenomenon, while the mechanisms are still inadequately understood. Here we report spontaneous de-icing phenomena of an impacting droplet which occur on extreme cold surfaces. When a droplet impacts on cold surfaces lower than -80°, it takes more than two times longer for the droplet to freeze than the ones at -50°. Moreover, the frozen droplet below -80° breaks up into several large parts spontaneously in the end. When a droplet impacts on the extreme cold surfaces, evaporation and condensation occur immediately as the droplet approaches the substrate. A thick layer of frost forms between the droplet and substrate, decreasing the contact area of the droplet with substrate. It leads to impede the heat transfer and hence extends the freezing time significantly. On the extremely cold substrate, the droplet freezes from the center to the edge area, in contrast to a typical case freezing from the bottom to the top. This novel from-center-to-edge freezing process changes the internal tension of the frozen droplet and results in the instantaneous breakup and release eventually, which can be taken advantage of for effective deicing mechanisms.

  11. Climate Central World Weather Attribution (WWA) project: Real-time extreme weather event attribution analysis (United States)

    Haustein, Karsten; Otto, Friederike; Uhe, Peter; Allen, Myles; Cullen, Heidi


    Extreme weather detection and attribution analysis has emerged as a core theme in climate science over the last decade or so. By using a combination of observational data and climate models it is possible to identify the role of climate change in certain types of extreme weather events such as sea level rise and its contribution to storm surges, extreme heat events and droughts or heavy rainfall and flood events. These analyses are usually carried out after an extreme event has occurred when reanalysis and observational data become available. The Climate Central WWA project will exploit the increasing forecast skill of seasonal forecast prediction systems such as the UK MetOffice GloSea5 (Global seasonal forecasting system) ensemble forecasting method. This way, the current weather can be fed into climate models to simulate large ensembles of possible weather scenarios before an event has fully emerged yet. This effort runs along parallel and intersecting tracks of science and communications that involve research, message development and testing, staged socialization of attribution science with key audiences, and dissemination. The method we employ uses a very large ensemble of simulations of regional climate models to run two different analyses: one to represent the current climate as it was observed, and one to represent the same events in the world that might have been without human-induced climate change. For the weather "as observed" experiment, the atmospheric model uses observed sea surface temperature (SST) data from GloSea5 (currently) and present-day atmospheric gas concentrations to simulate weather events that are possible given the observed climate conditions. The weather in the "world that might have been" experiments is obtained by removing the anthropogenic forcing from the observed SSTs, thereby simulating a counterfactual world without human activity. The anthropogenic forcing is obtained by comparing the CMIP5 historical and natural simulations

  12. Extreme weather and experience influence reproduction in an endangered bird (United States)

    Reichert, Brian E.; Cattau, Christopher E.; Fletcher, Robert J.; Kendall, William L.; Kitchens, Wiley M.


    Extreme weather events, such as droughts and heat waves, are expected to become more severe and more frequent in the coming years, and understanding their impacts on demographic rates is of increasing interest to both evolutionary ecologists and conservation practitioners. An individual's breeding probability can be a sensitive indicator of the decision to initiate reproductive behavior under varying environmental conditions, has strong fitness consequences, and can be considered the first step in a life history trade-off between allocating resources for breeding activities or self-survival.

  13. Atmospheric conditions and weather regimes associated with extreme winter dry spells over the Mediterranean basin (United States)

    Raymond, Florian; Ullmann, Albin; Camberlin, Pierre; Oueslati, Boutheina; Drobinski, Philippe


    Very long dry spell events occurring during winter are natural hazards to which the Mediterranean region is extremely vulnerable, because they can lead numerous impacts for environment and society. Four dry spell patterns have been identified in a previous work. Identifying the main associated atmospheric conditions controlling the dry spell patterns is key to better understand their dynamics and their evolution in a changing climate. Except for the Levant region, the dry spells are generally associated with anticyclonic blocking conditions located about 1000 km to the Northwest of the affected area. These anticyclonic conditions are favourable to dry spell occurrence as they are associated with subsidence of cold and dry air coming from boreal latitudes which bring low amount of water vapour and non saturated air masses, leading to clear sky and absence of precipitation. These extreme dry spells are also partly related to the classical four Euro-Atlantic weather regimes are: the two phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Scandinavian "blocking" or "East-Atlantic", and the "Atlantic ridge". Only the The "East-Atlantic", "Atlantic ridge" and the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation are frequently associated with extremes dry spells over the Mediterranean basin but they do not impact the four dry spell patterns equally. Finally long sequences of those weather regimes are more favourable to extreme dry spells than short sequences. These long sequences are associated with the favourable prolonged and reinforced anticyclonic conditions

  14. Extreme weather and climate events with ecological relevance: a review. (United States)

    Ummenhofer, Caroline C; Meehl, Gerald A


    Robust evidence exists that certain extreme weather and climate events, especially daily temperature and precipitation extremes, have changed in regard to intensity and frequency over recent decades. These changes have been linked to human-induced climate change, while the degree to which climate change impacts an individual extreme climate event (ECE) is more difficult to quantify. Rapid progress in event attribution has recently been made through improved understanding of observed and simulated climate variability, methods for event attribution and advances in numerical modelling. Attribution for extreme temperature events is stronger compared with other event types, notably those related to the hydrological cycle. Recent advances in the understanding of ECEs, both in observations and their representation in state-of-the-art climate models, open new opportunities for assessing their effect on human and natural systems. Improved spatial resolution in global climate models and advances in statistical and dynamical downscaling now provide climatic information at appropriate spatial and temporal scales. Together with the continued development of Earth System Models that simulate biogeochemical cycles and interactions with the biosphere at increasing complexity, these make it possible to develop a mechanistic understanding of how ECEs affect biological processes, ecosystem functioning and adaptation capabilities. Limitations in the observational network, both for physical climate system parameters and even more so for long-term ecological monitoring, have hampered progress in understanding bio-physical interactions across a range of scales. New opportunities for assessing how ECEs modulate ecosystem structure and functioning arise from better scientific understanding of ECEs coupled with technological advances in observing systems and instrumentation.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events

  15. Future intensification of hydro-meteorological extremes: downscaling using the weather research and forecasting model

    KAUST Repository

    El-Samra, R.


    A set of ten downscaling simulations at high spatial resolution (3 km horizontally) were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to generate future climate projections of annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation changes over the Eastern Mediterranean (with a focus on Lebanon). The model was driven with the High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM), running over the whole globe at a resolution of 25 km, under the conditions of two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) (4.5 and 8.5). Each downscaling simulation spanned one year. Two past years (2003 and 2008), also forced by HiRAM without data assimilation, were simulated to evaluate the model’s ability to capture the cold and wet (2003) and hot and dry (2008) extremes. The downscaled data were in the range of recent observed climatic variability, and therefore corrected for the cold bias of HiRAM. Eight future years were then selected based on an anomaly score that relies on the mean annual temperature and accumulated precipitation to identify the worst year per decade from a water resources perspective. One hot and dry year per decade, from 2011 to 2050, and per scenario was simulated and compared to the historic 2008 reference. The results indicate that hot and dry future extreme years will be exacerbated and the study area might be exposed to a significant decrease in annual precipitation (rain and snow), reaching up to 30% relative to the current extreme conditions.

  16. Climate Variability and Weather Extremes: Model-Simulated and Historical Data. Chapter 9 (United States)

    Schubert, Siegfried D.; Lim, Young-Kwon


    Extremes in weather and climate encompass a wide array of phenomena including tropical storms, mesoscale convective systems, snowstorms, floods, heat waves, and drought. Understanding how such extremes might change in the future requires an understanding of their past behavior including their connections to large-scale climate variability and trends. Previous studies suggest that the most robust findings concerning changes in short-term extremes are those that can be most directly (though not completely) tied to the increase in the global mean temperatures. These include the findings that (IPCC 2007): There has been a widespread reduction in the number of frost days in mid-latitude regions in recent decades, an increase in the number of warm extremes, particularly warm nights, and a reduction in the number of cold extremes, particularly cold nights. For North America in particular (CCSP SAP 3.3, 2008): There are fewer unusually cold days during the last few decades. The last 10 years have seen a lower number of severe cold waves than for any other 10-year period in the historical record that dates back to 1895. There has been a decrease in the number of frost days and a lengthening of the frost-free season, particularly in the western part of North America. Other aspects of extremes such as the changes in storminess have a less clear signature of long term change, with considerable interannual, and decadal variability that can obscure any climate change signal. Nevertheless, regarding extratropical storms (CCSP SAP 3.3, 2008): The balance of evidence suggests that there has been a northward shift in the tracks of strong low pressure systems (storms) in both the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins. For North America: Regional analyses suggest that there has been a decrease in snowstorms in the South and lower Midwest of the United States, and an increase in snowstorms in the upper Midwest and Northeast. Despite the progress already made, our understanding of the

  17. The other side of the coin: urban heat islands as shields from extreme cold (United States)

    Yang, J.; Bou-Zeid, E.


    Extensive studies focusing on urban heat islands (UHIs) during hot periods create a perception that UHIs are invariably hazardous to human health and the sustainability of cities. Consequently, cities have invested substantial resources to try to mitigate UHIs. These urban policies can have serious repercussions since the health risks associated with cold weather are in fact higher than for heat episodes, yet wintertime UHIs have hardly been explored. We combine ground observations from 12 U.S. cities and high-resolution simulations to show that UHIs not only warm urban areas in the winter, but also further intensify during cold waves by up to 1.32 ± 0.78 oC (mean ± standard deviation) at night. Urban heat islands serve as shelters against extreme colds and provide invaluable benefits of reducing health risks and heating demand. More importantly, our simulations indicate that standard UHI mitigation measures such as green or cool roofs reduce these cold time amenities to different extents. Cities, particularly in cool and cold temperate climates, should hence revisit policies and efforts that are only desgined for hot periods. A paradigm shift is urgently needed to give an equal weight to the wintertime benefits of UHIs in the sustainability and resilience blueprints of cities.

  18. Spatial extreme value analysis to project extremes of large-scale indicators for severe weather. (United States)

    Gilleland, Eric; Brown, Barbara G; Ammann, Caspar M


    Concurrently high values of the maximum potential wind speed of updrafts ( W max ) and 0-6 km wind shear (Shear) have been found to represent conducive environments for severe weather, which subsequently provides a way to study severe weather in future climates. Here, we employ a model for the product of these variables (WmSh) from the National Center for Atmospheric Research/United States National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis over North America conditioned on their having extreme energy in the spatial field in order to project the predominant spatial patterns of WmSh. The approach is based on the Heffernan and Tawn conditional extreme value model. Results suggest that this technique estimates the spatial behavior of WmSh well, which allows for exploring possible changes in the patterns over time. While the model enables a method for inferring the uncertainty in the patterns, such analysis is difficult with the currently available inference approach. A variation of the method is also explored to investigate how this type of model might be used to qualitatively understand how the spatial patterns of WmSh correspond to extreme river flow events. A case study for river flows from three rivers in northwestern Tennessee is studied, and it is found that advection of WmSh from the Gulf of Mexico prevails while elsewhere, WmSh is generally very low during such extreme events. © 2013 The Authors. Environmetrics published by JohnWiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. Case report of cold-weather-induced radiation recall dermatitis after chemoradiotherapy with cisplatin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kindts, Isabelle; Stellamans, Karin; Planckaert, Nikie; Goethals, Laurence [AZ Groeninge Hospital, Department of Radiation Oncology, Kortrijk (Belgium); Bonny, Michiel [AZ Groeninge Hospital, Department of Dermatology, Kortrijk (Belgium)


    The radiation recall reaction (RRR) is an inflammatory reaction that occurs in previously irradiated areas. The phenomenon is probably due to an idiosyncratic hypersensitivity reaction, in which a second agent can recall the inflammatory reaction. This case report documents a cold-weather-induced radiation recall dermatitis (RRD). We observed a severe RRD in a patient after chemoradiotherapy treatment with cisplatin for a nasopharyngeal carcinoma, precipitated by cold temperatures, which developed 9 days after completion of therapy. In the medical literature, RRD following extreme cold temperatures seems to be a peculiar event. Until further information on the interaction is available, future studies on combined chemotherapy with cisplatin should be carefully monitored and any side effects clearly documented. This case suggests that environmental conditions may play a contributing role in the development of RRD. This case also implies that neither fraction size nor total radiation dose is a determining factor in the development of the dermatologic reaction. (orig.) [German] Die ''Radiation-Recall-Reaktion'' (RRR) ist eine Entzuendungsreaktion, die in zuvor bestrahlten Bereichen auftritt. Das Phaenomen wird wahrscheinlich durch eine spezifische Ueberempfindlichkeitsreaktion verursacht, bei der ein zweites Agens die Entzuendungsreaktion hervorruft. Dieser Fallbericht beschreibt eine kaltwetterinduzierte RR-Hautentzuendung. Wir beobachteten bei dem Patienten nach einer Radiochemotherapie mit Cisplatin aufgrund eines Nasopharynxkarzinoms eine heftige RR-Dermatitis (RRD) aufgrund kalter Temperaturen, die sich 9 Tage nach Therapiebeendigung entwickelte. In der medizinischen Literatur scheint eine RRD infolge extrem kalter Temperaturen ein besonderes Ereignis. Bis weitere Informationen zu der Interaktion verfuegbar sind, sollten zukuenftige Studien zur Kombinationstherapie mit Cisplatin sorgfaeltig ueberwacht und Nebenwirkungen eindeutig dokumentiert

  20. Triticale in the years with extreme weather conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nožinić Miloš


    Full Text Available Unlike other grain crops, the area under triticale in the Republic of Srpska has been expanding every year. Since the introduction of this plant species in the broad production began a few years ago, the finding of the optimal variety agrotechnique in different environmental conditions has great importance. This paper deals with the results of the trials from seven locations in two very extreme vegetation seasons (2002/03, 2006/07. High yield of triticale on the location Banja Luka (150 m alt. with five triticale varieties in four sowing rates in the replication trial in very unfavorable weather conditions in 2003, points to emphasized triticale tolerance to high temperatures and drought. High grain yield of triticale in the trials on the locations Banja Luka, Butmir (460 m alt. and Živince (230 m alt. was obtained in 2007 too, when all vegetation months had higher mean temperature than long term average, what is a unique appearance in the entire 'meteorological history'. In the paper the appearance of the earliest triticale heading is described and explained. It happened at one production trial on Manjača (250 m alt. in the first decade of March in 2007. On the another location on Manjača (450 m alt., in the macrotrial, rye showed much higher tolerance to extreme soil acidity, than triticale. Obtained results and unusual appearances on triticale are helpful for the further research of the stability and adaptability of more important triticale traits. .

  1. Frequent extreme cold exposure and brown fat and cold-induced thermogenesis: A study in a monozygotic twin

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.J. Vosselman (Maarten J.); G.H.E.J. Vijgen (Guy H. E. J.); B.R.M. Kingma (Boris R. M.); B. Brans (Boudewijn); W.D. Van Marken Lichtenbelt (Wouter D.)


    textabstractIntroduction: Mild cold acclimation is known to increase brown adipose tissue (BAT) activity and cold-induced thermogenesis (CIT) in humans. We here tested the effect of a lifestyle with frequent exposure to extreme cold on BAT and CIT in a Dutch man known as 'the Iceman', who has

  2. Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hansen, Brage B; Isaksen, Ketil; Benestad, Rasmus E; Kohler, Jack; Pedersen, Åshild Ø; Loe, Leif E; Coulson, Stephen J; Larsen, Jan Otto; Varpe, Øystein


    One predicted consequence of global warming is an increased frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, or heavy rainfalls. In parts of the Arctic, extreme warm spells and heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) events in winter are already more frequent. How these weather events impact snow-pack and permafrost characteristics is rarely documented empirically, and the implications for wildlife and society are hence far from understood. Here we characterize and document the effects of an extreme warm spell and ROS event that occurred in High Arctic Svalbard in January–February 2012, during the polar night. In this normally cold semi-desert environment, we recorded above-zero temperatures (up to 7 °C) across the entire archipelago and record-breaking precipitation, with up to 98 mm rainfall in one day (return period of >500 years prior to this event) and 272 mm over the two-week long warm spell. These precipitation amounts are equivalent to 25 and 70% respectively of the mean annual total precipitation. The extreme event caused significant increase in permafrost temperatures down to at least 5 m depth, induced slush avalanches with resultant damage to infrastructure, and left a significant ground-ice cover (∼5–20 cm thick basal ice). The ground-ice not only affected inhabitants by closing roads and airports as well as reducing mobility and thereby tourism income, but it also led to high starvation-induced mortality in all monitored populations of the wild reindeer by blocking access to the winter food source. Based on empirical-statistical downscaling of global climate models run under the moderate RCP4.5 emission scenario, we predict strong future warming with average mid-winter temperatures even approaching 0 °C, suggesting increased frequency of ROS. This will have far-reaching implications for Arctic ecosystems and societies through the changes in snow-pack and permafrost properties. (letter)

  3. Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic (United States)

    Hansen, Brage B.; Isaksen, Ketil; Benestad, Rasmus E.; Kohler, Jack; Pedersen, Åshild Ø.; Loe, Leif E.; Coulson, Stephen J.; Larsen, Jan Otto; Varpe, Øystein


    One predicted consequence of global warming is an increased frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, or heavy rainfalls. In parts of the Arctic, extreme warm spells and heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) events in winter are already more frequent. How these weather events impact snow-pack and permafrost characteristics is rarely documented empirically, and the implications for wildlife and society are hence far from understood. Here we characterize and document the effects of an extreme warm spell and ROS event that occurred in High Arctic Svalbard in January-February 2012, during the polar night. In this normally cold semi-desert environment, we recorded above-zero temperatures (up to 7 °C) across the entire archipelago and record-breaking precipitation, with up to 98 mm rainfall in one day (return period of >500 years prior to this event) and 272 mm over the two-week long warm spell. These precipitation amounts are equivalent to 25 and 70% respectively of the mean annual total precipitation. The extreme event caused significant increase in permafrost temperatures down to at least 5 m depth, induced slush avalanches with resultant damage to infrastructure, and left a significant ground-ice cover (˜5-20 cm thick basal ice). The ground-ice not only affected inhabitants by closing roads and airports as well as reducing mobility and thereby tourism income, but it also led to high starvation-induced mortality in all monitored populations of the wild reindeer by blocking access to the winter food source. Based on empirical-statistical downscaling of global climate models run under the moderate RCP4.5 emission scenario, we predict strong future warming with average mid-winter temperatures even approaching 0 °C, suggesting increased frequency of ROS. This will have far-reaching implications for Arctic ecosystems and societies through the changes in snow-pack and permafrost properties.

  4. A Meteorological Supersite for Aviation and Cold Weather Applications (United States)

    Gultepe, Ismail; Agelin-Chaab, M.; Komar, J.; Elfstrom, G.; Boudala, F.; Zhou, B.


    The goal of this study is to better understand atmospheric boundary layer processes and parameters, and to evaluate physical processes for aviation applications using data from a supersite observing site. Various meteorological sensors, including a weather and environmental unmanned aerial vehicle (WE-UAV), and a fog and snow tower (FSOS) observations are part of the project. The PanAm University of Ontario Institute of Technology (UOIT) Meteorological Supersite (PUMS) observations are being collected from April 2015 to date. The FSOS tower gathers observations related to rain, snow, fog, and visibility, aerosols, solar radiation, and wind and turbulence, as well as surface and sky temperature. The FSOSs are located at three locations at about 450-800 m away from the PUMS supersite. The WE-UAV measurements representing aerosol, wind speed and direction, as well as temperature (T) and relative humidity (RH) are provided during clear weather conditions. Other measurements at the PUMS site include cloud backscattering profiles from CL51 ceilometer, MWR observations of liquid water content (LWC), T, and RH, and Microwave Rain Radar (MRR) reflectivity profile, as well as the present weather type, snow water depth, icing rate, 3D-ultrasonic wind and turbulence, and conventional meteorological observations from compact weather stations, e.g., WXTs. The results based on important weather event studies, representing fog, snow, rain, blowing snow, wind gust, planetary boundary layer (PBL) wind research for UAV, and icing conditions are given. The microphysical parameterizations and analysis processes for each event are provided, but the results should not be generalized for all weather events and be used cautiously. Results suggested that integrated observing systems based on data from a supersite as well as satellite sites can provide better information applicable to aviation meteorology, including PBL weather research, validation of numerical weather model predictions, and

  5. Taking Extreme Space Weather to the Milky Way (United States)

    Pesnell, W. Dean


    Extreme Space Weather events are large solar flares or geomagnetic storms, which can cause economic damage that cost billions of dollars to recover from. We have few examples of such events; only the Carrington Event (the solar superstorm) has superlatives in three categories: size of solar flare, drop in Dst, and amplitude of aa. Kepler observations show that stars similar to the Sun can have flares releasing thousands of times more energy than an X-class flare. These flares would strongly affect the atmosphere surrounding a planet orbiting such a star. Particle and magnetic field outflows from these stars could also be present. We are investigating the level of solar activity that is necessary to strongly affect the atmosphere of terrestrial planets. We assume that a habitable planet requires an atmosphere with a temperature and composition that is stable in time. Can we then extrapolate results from our solar system to determine a space of stellar parameters in which habitable planets can exist?

  6. Communicating adaptation with emotions : the role of intense experiences for concern about extreme weather

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vasileiadou, E.; Botzen, W.


    Adaptation to extreme weather is often considered as having a low urgency and being a low priority governance option, even though the intensity of extreme weather events is expected to increase as a result of climate change. An important issue is how to raise an adequate level of concern among

  7. Pricing Weather Index Insurance Based on Artificial Controlled Experiment - A Case Study of Cold Temperature for Early Rice in Jiangxi, China (United States)

    SUN, Q.; Yang, Z.


    The growth of early rice is often threated by a phenomenon known as Grain Buds Cold, a period of anomalously cold temperature that occurs during the booting and flowering stage. Therefore, quantifying the impact of weather on crop yield is a core issue in design of weather index insurance. A high yield loss will lead to an increasing premium rate. In this paper, we explored a new way to investigate the relationship between yield loss rate and cold temperature durations. A two-year artificial controlled experiment was used to build logarithm and linear yield loss model. Moreover, an information diffusion model was applied to calculate the probability of different durations which lasting for 3-20 days. The results show that pure premium rates of logarithm yield loss model had better premium rates performance than that of linear yield loss model. The premium rates of Grain Buds Cold Weather Index Insurance fluctuated between 7.085% and 10.151% in Jiangxi Province. Compared with common statistical methods, the artificial controlled experiment provides an easier and more robust way to determine the relationship between yield and single meteorological factor. Meanwhile, this experiment would be very important for some regions where were lacking in historical yield data and climate data and could help farmers cope with extreme cold weather risks under varying weather conditions.

  8. The impact of winter cold weather on acute myocardial infarctions in Portugal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasconcelos, João; Freire, Elisabete; Almendra, Ricardo


    Mortality due to cardiovascular diseases shows a seasonal trend that can be associated with cold weather. Portugal is the European country with the highest excess winter mortality, but nevertheless, the relationship between cold weather and health is yet to be assessed. The main aim of this study is to identify the contribution of cold weather to cardiovascular diseases within Portugal. Poisson regression analysis based on generalized additive models was applied to estimate the influence of a human-biometeorological index (PET) on daily hospitalizations for myocardial infarction. The main results revealed a negative effect of cold weather on acute myocardial infarctions in Portugal. For every degree fall in PET during winter, there was an increase of up to 2.2% (95% CI = 0.9%; 3.3%) in daily hospital admissions. This paper shows the need for public policies that will help minimize or, indeed, prevent exposure to cold. -- Highlights: ► We model the relationship between daily hospitalizations due to myocardial infarctions and cold weather in Portugal. ► We use Physiological Equivalent temperature (PET) as main explanatory variable. ► We adjust the models to confounding factors such as influenza and air pollution. ► Daily hospitalizations increased up to 2.2% per degree fall of PET during winter. ► Exposure to cold weather has a negative impact on human health in Portugal. -- There is an increase of up to 2.2% in daily hospitalizations due to acute myocardial infarctions per degree fall of thermal index during the winter months in Portugal

  9. Cause and Properties of the Extreme Space Weather Event of 2012 July 23 (United States)

    Liu, Y. D.; Luhmann, J. G.; Kajdic, P.; Kilpua, E.; Lugaz, N.; Nitta, N.; Lavraud, B.; Bale, S. D.; Farrugia, C. J.; Galvin, A. B.


    Extreme space weather refers to extreme conditions in space driven by solar eruptions and subsequent disturbances in interplanetary space, or otherwise called solar superstorms. Understanding extreme space weather events is becoming ever more vital, as the vulnerability of our society and its technological infrastructure to space weather has increased dramatically. Instances of extreme space weather, however, are very rare by definition and therefore are difficult to study. Here we report and investigate an extreme event, which occurred on 2012 July 23 with a maximum speed of about 3050 km/s near the Sun. This event, with complete modern remote sensing and in situ observations from multiple vantage points, provides an unprecedented opportunity to study the cause and consequences of extreme space weather. It produced a superfast shock with a peak solar wind speed of 2246 km/s and a superstrong magnetic cloud with a peak magnetic field of 109 nT observed near 1 AU at STEREO A. The record solar wind speed and magnetic field would produce a record geomagnetic storm since the space era with a minimum Dst of -1200 - -600 nT, if this event hit the Earth. We demonstrate how successive coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can be enhanced into a solar superstorm as they interact en route from the Sun to 1 AU. These results not only provide a benchmark for studies of extreme space weather, but also present a new view of how an extreme space weather event can be generated from usual solar eruptions.

  10. Prevention and Management of Cold-Weather Injuries (United States)


    49 d. After an initial stimulation of respiration with mild hypothermia (leading to respiratory alkalosis ), there is a progressive decrease...nonevaporated sweat will reduce clothing insulation and possibly form ice crystals. Breathing cold air can slightly exacerbate respiratory water loss... Respiratory . (1) Upper airway temperatures, which normally remain unchanged during exercise under temperate conditions, can decrease substantially

  11. Impact of extreme weather events and climate change for health and social care systems. (United States)

    Curtis, Sarah; Fair, Alistair; Wistow, Jonathan; Val, Dimitri V; Oven, Katie


    This review, commissioned by the Research Councils UK Living With Environmental Change (LWEC) programme, concerns research on the impacts on health and social care systems in the United Kingdom of extreme weather events, under conditions of climate change. Extreme weather events considered include heatwaves, coldwaves and flooding. Using a structured review method, we consider evidence regarding the currently observed and anticipated future impacts of extreme weather on health and social care systems and the potential of preparedness and adaptation measures that may enhance resilience. We highlight a number of general conclusions which are likely to be of international relevance, although the review focussed on the situation in the UK. Extreme weather events impact the operation of health services through the effects on built, social and institutional infrastructures which support health and health care, and also because of changes in service demand as extreme weather impacts on human health. Strategic planning for extreme weather and impacts on the care system should be sensitive to within country variations. Adaptation will require changes to built infrastructure systems (including transport and utilities as well as individual care facilities) and also to institutional and social infrastructure supporting the health care system. Care sector organisations, communities and individuals need to adapt their practices to improve resilience of health and health care to extreme weather. Preparedness and emergency response strategies call for action extending beyond the emergency response services, to include health and social care providers more generally.

  12. Extinction of an introduced warm-climate alien species, Xenopus laevis, by extreme weather events. (United States)

    Tinsley, Richard C; Stott, Lucy C; Viney, Mark E; Mable, Barbara K; Tinsley, Matthew C

    Invasive, non-native species represent a major threat to biodiversity worldwide. The African amphibian Xenopus laevis is widely regarded as an invasive species and a threat to local faunas. Populations originating at the Western Cape, South Africa, have been introduced on four continents, mostly in areas with a similar Mediterranean climate. Some introduced populations are also established in cooler environments where persistence for many decades suggests a capacity for long-term adaptation. In these cases, recent climate warming might enhance invasion ability, favouring range expansion, population growth and negative effects on native faunas. In the cool temperate UK, populations have been established for about 50 years in Wales and for an unknown period, probably >20 years, in England (Lincolnshire). Our field studies over 30 and 10 years, respectively, show that in favourable conditions there may be good recruitment, fast individual growth rates and large body size; maximum longevity exceeds 23 years. Nevertheless, areas of distribution remained limited, with numbers extinct. The winters of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 experienced extreme cold and drought (December 2010 was the coldest in 120 years and the third driest in 100 years). The extinction of X. laevis in these areas indicates that even relatively long-established alien species remain vulnerable to rare extreme weather conditions.

  13. Climatology of extreme rainfall from rain gauges and weather radar

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Overeem, A.


    Extreme neerslaggebeurtenissen hebben een grote invloed op de maatschappij en kunnen leiden tot materi¨ele schade en slachtoffers. Daarom is een betrouwbare klimatologie van extreme neerslag belangrijk, bijvoorbeeld voor het ontwerp van afvoersystemen. Een dergelijke klimatologie kan worden

  14. Modeling extreme (Carrington-type) space weather events using three-dimensional MHD code simulations (United States)

    Ngwira, C. M.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Glocer, A.


    There is growing concern over possible severe societal consequences related to adverse space weather impacts on man-made technological infrastructure and systems. In the last two decades, significant progress has been made towards the modeling of space weather events. Three-dimensional (3-D) global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) models have been at the forefront of this transition, and have played a critical role in advancing our understanding of space weather. However, the modeling of extreme space weather events is still a major challenge even for existing global MHD models. In this study, we introduce a specially adapted University of Michigan 3-D global MHD model for simulating extreme space weather events that have a ground footprint comparable (or larger) to the Carrington superstorm. Results are presented for an initial simulation run with ``very extreme'' constructed/idealized solar wind boundary conditions driving the magnetosphere. In particular, we describe the reaction of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system and the associated ground induced geoelectric field to such extreme driving conditions. We also discuss the results and what they might mean for the accuracy of the simulations. The model is further tested using input data for an observed space weather event to verify the MHD model consistence and to draw guidance for future work. This extreme space weather MHD model is designed specifically for practical application to the modeling of extreme geomagnetically induced electric fields, which can drive large currents in earth conductors such as power transmission grids.

  15. Numerical Modeling of the Severe Cold Weather Event over Central Europe (January 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Hari Prasad


    Full Text Available Cold waves commonly occur in higher latitudes under prevailing high pressure systems especially during winter season which cause serious economical loss and cold related death. Accurate prediction of such severe weather events is important for decision making by administrators and for mitigation planning. An Advanced high resolution Weather Research and Forecasting mesoscale model is used to simulate a severe cold wave event occurred during January 2006 over Europe. The model is integrated for 31 days starting from 00UTC of 1 January 2006 with 30 km horizontal resolution. Comparison of the model derived area averaged daily mean temperatures at 2m height from different zones over the central Europe with observations indicates that the model is able to simulate the occurrence of the cold wave with the observed time lag of 1 to 3days but with lesser intensity. The temperature, winds, surface pressure and the geopential heights at 500 hPa reveal that the cold wave development associates with the southward progression of a high pressure system and cold air advection. The results have good agreement with the analysis fields indicates that the model has the ability to reproduce the time evolution of the cold wave event.

  16. Properties of early-stage concrete with setting-accelerating tablet in cold weather

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ryou, Jae-Suk; Lee, Yong-Soo


    Highlights: ► Tablets were used as accelerators, which have a merit in cold weather. ► Tablets are almost not used at all as construction materials (powdered admixtures). ► 0.5 and 1.0% tablets satisfied workability and strength for early-frost prevention. ► It was found that it is possible for the 0.5 and 1.0% tablets in cold weather. - Abstract: Various methods are used at the early stages to control setting-time and strength of concrete, when cold-weather concrete is utilized. Among these methods is one that involves the use of an accelerator. Although economical, accelerators have difficulty securing workability because their early hydration makes them react rapidly. Therefore, how to make a tablet for cold-weather concrete, as with the existing medicines and foods, is discussed in this study, including the following items: mortar setting-time, workability by elapsed time, early strength to assure the development of adequate strength, and freezing–thawing resistance. As a result, both the 0.5 and 1.0% tablets were found to be superior. Thus, workability can be secured, as well as the development of early strength to prevent early frost.

  17. Thermodynamic Study on the Effects of Minor Constituents on Cold Weather Performance of Biodiesel (United States)

    Biodiesel is an alternative diesel fuel made from vegetable oils, animal fats and other lipid feedstocks. Fuel properties and performance of biodiesel during cold weather are influenced by factors related to its feedstock, namely fatty acid composition and trace concentrations of monoacylglycerols,...

  18. The relationship between extreme weather events and crop losses in central Taiwan (United States)

    Lai, Li-Wei


    The frequency of extreme weather events, which cause severe crop losses, is increasing. This study investigates the relationship between crop losses and extreme weather events in central Taiwan from 2003 to 2015 and determines the main factors influencing crop losses. Data regarding the crop loss area and meteorological information were obtained from government agencies. The crops were categorised into the following five groups: `grains', `vegetables', `fruits', `flowers' and `other crops'. The extreme weather events and their synoptic weather patterns were categorised into six and five groups, respectively. The data were analysed using the z score, correlation coefficient and stepwise regression model. The results show that typhoons had the highest frequency of all extreme weather events (58.3%). The largest crop loss area (4.09%) was caused by two typhoons and foehn wind in succession. Extreme wind speed coupled with heavy rainfall is an important factor affecting the losses in the grain and vegetable groups. Extreme wind speed is a common variable that affects the loss of `grains', `vegetables', `fruits' and `flowers'. Consecutive extreme weather events caused greater crop losses than individual events. Crops with long production times suffered greater losses than those with short production times. This suggests that crops with physical structures that can be easily damaged and long production times would benefit from protected cultivation to maintain food security.

  19. Transportation system resilience, extreme weather and climate change : a thought leadership series (United States)


    This report summarizes key findings from the Transportation System Resilience, Extreme Weather and Climate Change thought leadership series held at Volpe, the National Transportation Systems Center from fall 2013 to spring 2014.

  20. Projections of future extreme weather losses under changes in climate and exposure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouwer, L.M.


    Many attempts are made to assess future changes in extreme weather events due to anthropogenic climate change, but few studies have estimated the potential change in economic losses from such events. Projecting losses is more complex as it requires insight into the change in the weather hazard but

  1. Extreme weather-year sequences have nonadditive effects on environmental nitrogen losses. (United States)

    Iqbal, Javed; Necpalova, Magdalena; Archontoulis, Sotirios V; Anex, Robert P; Bourguignon, Marie; Herzmann, Daryl; Mitchell, David C; Sawyer, John E; Zhu, Qing; Castellano, Michael J


    The frequency and intensity of extreme weather years, characterized by abnormal precipitation and temperature, are increasing. In isolation, these years have disproportionately large effects on environmental N losses. However, the sequence of extreme weather years (e.g., wet-dry vs. dry-wet) may affect cumulative N losses. We calibrated and validated the DAYCENT ecosystem process model with a comprehensive set of biogeophysical measurements from a corn-soybean rotation managed at three N fertilizer inputs with and without a winter cover crop in Iowa, USA. Our objectives were to determine: (i) how 2-year sequences of extreme weather affect 2-year cumulative N losses across the crop rotation, and (ii) if N fertilizer management and the inclusion of a winter cover crop between corn and soybean mitigate the effect of extreme weather on N losses. Using historical weather (1951-2013), we created nine 2-year scenarios with all possible combinations of the driest ("dry"), wettest ("wet"), and average ("normal") weather years. We analyzed the effects of these scenarios following several consecutive years of relatively normal weather. Compared with the normal-normal 2-year weather scenario, 2-year extreme weather scenarios affected 2-year cumulative NO 3 - leaching (range: -93 to +290%) more than N 2 O emissions (range: -49 to +18%). The 2-year weather scenarios had nonadditive effects on N losses: compared with the normal-normal scenario, the dry-wet sequence decreased 2-year cumulative N 2 O emissions while the wet-dry sequence increased 2-year cumulative N 2 O emissions. Although dry weather decreased NO 3 - leaching and N 2 O emissions in isolation, 2-year cumulative N losses from the wet-dry scenario were greater than the dry-wet scenario. Cover crops reduced the effects of extreme weather on NO 3 - leaching but had a lesser effect on N 2 O emissions. As the frequency of extreme weather is expected to increase, these data suggest that the sequence of interannual weather

  2. Improving the health forecasting alert system for cold weather and heat-waves in England: a case-study approach using temperature-mortality relationships (United States)

    Masato, Giacomo; Cavany, Sean; Charlton-Perez, Andrew; Dacre, Helen; Bone, Angie; Carmicheal, Katie; Murray, Virginia; Danker, Rutger; Neal, Rob; Sarran, Christophe


    The health forecasting alert system for cold weather and heatwaves currently in use in the Cold Weather and Heatwave plans for England is based on 5 alert levels, with levels 2 and 3 dependent on a forecast or actual single temperature action trigger. Epidemiological evidence indicates that for both heat and cold, the impact on human health is gradual, with worsening impact for more extreme temperatures. The 60% risk of heat and cold forecasts used by the alerts is a rather crude probabilistic measure, which could be substantially improved thanks to the state-of-the-art forecast techniques. In this study a prototype of a new health forecasting alert system is developed, which is aligned to the approach used in the Met Office's (MO) National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS). This is in order to improve information available to responders in the health and social care system by linking temperatures more directly to risks of mortality, and developing a system more coherent with other weather alerts. The prototype is compared to the current system in the Cold Weather and Heatwave plans via a case-study approach to verify its potential advantages and shortcomings. The prototype health forecasting alert system introduces an "impact vs likelihood matrix" for the health impacts of hot and cold temperatures which is similar to those used operationally for other weather hazards as part of the NSWWS. The impact axis of this matrix is based on existing epidemiological evidence, which shows an increasing relative risk of death at extremes of outdoor temperature beyond a threshold which can be identified epidemiologically. The likelihood axis is based on a probability measure associated with the temperature forecast. The new method is tested for two case studies (one during summer 2013, one during winter 2013), and compared to the performance of the current alert system. The prototype shows some clear improvements over the current alert system. It allows for a much greater

  3. Report 3: Guidance document on practices to model and implement Extreme Weather hazards in extended PSA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alzbutas, R.; Ostapchuk, S.; Borysiewicz, M.; Decker, K.; Kumar, Manorma; Haeggstroem, A.; Nitoi, M.; Groudev, P.; Parey, S.; Potempski, S.; Raimond, E.; Siklossy, T.


    The goal of this report is to provide guidance on practices to model Extreme Weather hazards and implement them in extended level 1 PSA. This report is a joint deliverable of work package 21 (WP21) and work package 22 (WP22). The general objective of WP21 is to provide guidance on all of the individual hazards selected at the End Users Workshop. This guidance is focusing on extreme weather hazards, namely: extreme wind, extreme temperature and snow pack. Other hazards, however, are considered in cases where they are correlated/ associated with the hazard under discussion. Guidance developed refers to existing guidance whenever possible. As it was recommended by end users this guidance covers questions of developing integrated and/or separated extreme weathers PSA models. (authors)

  4. Quantifying the impact of weather extremes on global food security: A spatial bio-economic approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sika Gbegbelegbe


    Full Text Available This study uses a spatial bio-economic modelling framework to estimate the impact of the 2012 weather extreme in the USA on food security in the developing world. The study also quantifies the potential effects of a similar weather extreme occurring in 2050 under climate change. The study results indicate that weather extremes that affect maize productivity in key grain baskets can negatively affect food security in vulnerable countries. The 2012 weather extreme which occurred in the USA reduced US and global maize production by 29% compared to trend; maize consumption in the country decreased by 5% only and this resulted in less surplus maize for exports from the largest maize exporter in the world. Global maize production decreased by 6% compared to trend. The decrease in global maize production coupled with a reduction in the volume of global maize exports worsened food insecurity in eastern Africa, the Caribbean and Central America and India. The effects of the weather extreme on global food security would be worse, if the latter were to occur under climate change in 2050, assuming no climate change adaptation worldwide over the years. In addition, the hardest-hit regions would remain the same, whether the weather extreme occurs in 2012 instead of 2050: Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA, South Asia and the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC region. However, sustained growth in per capita income across world economies between 2000 and 2050 would allow few countries in SSA and the LAC region to virtually eliminate hunger within their borders. In these countries, per capita income would be high enough by 2050 to completely offset the negative effect of the weather extreme. The study results are also consistent with USDA׳s estimates on US and global maize production and consumption in 2012 after the weather extreme. Some discrepancy is found on the volume of global maize trade; this implies that the bio-economic model likely overestimates the effect of the

  5. Ionospheric Response to Extremes in the Space Environment: Establishing Benchmarks for the Space Weather Action Plan. (United States)

    Viereck, R. A.; Azeem, S. I.


    One of the goals of the National Space Weather Action Plan is to establish extreme event benchmarks. These benchmarks are estimates of environmental parameters that impact technologies and systems during extreme space weather events. Quantitative assessment of anticipated conditions during these extreme space weather event will enable operators and users of affected technologies to develop plans for mitigating space weather risks and improve preparedness. The ionosphere is one of the most important regions of space because so many applications either depend on ionospheric space weather for their operation (HF communication, over-the-horizon radars), or can be deleteriously affected by ionospheric conditions (e.g. GNSS navigation and timing, UHF satellite communications, synthetic aperture radar, HF communications). Since the processes that influence the ionosphere vary over time scales from seconds to years, it continues to be a challenge to adequately predict its behavior in many circumstances. Estimates with large uncertainties, in excess of 100%, may result in operators of impacted technologies over or under preparing for such events. The goal of the next phase of the benchmarking activity is to reduce these uncertainties. In this presentation, we will focus on the sources of uncertainty in the ionospheric response to extreme geomagnetic storms. We will then discuss various research efforts required to better understand the underlying processes of ionospheric variability and how the uncertainties in ionospheric response to extreme space weather could be reduced and the estimates improved.

  6. Aurorasaurus: Citizen Scientists Experiencing Extremes of Space Weather (United States)

    MacDonald, E.; Hall, M.; Tapia, A.


    Aurorasaurus is a new citizen science mapping platform to nowcast the visibility of the Northern Lights for the public in the current solar maximum, the first with social media. As a recently funded NSF INSPIRE program, we have joint goals among three research disciplines: space weather forecasting, the study of human-computer interactions, and informal science education. We will highlight results from the prototype and outline future efforts to motivate online participants and crowdsource viable data. Our citizen science effort is unique among space programs as it includes both reporting observations and data analysis activities to engage the broadest participant network possible. In addition, our efforts to improve space weather nowcasting by including real-time mapping of ground truth observers for rare, sporadic events are a first in the field.

  7. Capability of LOFT vital batteries to supply emergency power demands during severe cold weather conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yeates, J.A.


    This study evaluates the capability of the vital batteries (PPS) to provide electrical power via the vital DC-AC motor generator sets to the LOFT PPS loads during severe cold weather conditions. It is concluded that these batteries while at a temperature of 5 0 F will supply the necessary PPS electrical loads for a time in excess of the one hour permitted to start the diesel generators and are, therefore, adequate at this temperature. This Revision B of the LTR includes revised, more recent, and complete technical data relating to MG set efficiency, battery operating procedures and cold temperature derating. Revision B supersedes and replaces all previous issues

  8. Dynamics of 2013 Sudden Stratospheric Warming event and its impact on cold weather over Eurasia: Role of planetary wave reflection. (United States)

    Nath, Debashis; Chen, Wen; Zelin, Cai; Pogoreltsev, Alexander Ivanovich; Wei, Ke


    In the present study, we investigate the impact of stratospheric planetary wave reflection on tropospheric weather over Central Eurasia during the 2013 Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event. We analyze EP fluxes and Plumb wave activity fluxes to study the two and three dimensional aspects of wave propagation, respectively. The 2013 SSW event is excited by the combined influence of wavenumber 1 (WN1) and wavenumber 2 (WN2) planetary waves, which makes the event an unusual one and seems to have significant impact on tropospheric weather regime. We observe an extraordinary development of a ridge over the Siberian Tundra and the North Pacific during first development stage (last week of December 2012) and later from the North Atlantic in the second development stage (first week of January 2013), and these waves appear to be responsible for the excitation of the WN2 pattern during the SSW. The wave packets propagated upward and were then reflected back down to central Eurasia due to strong negative wind shear in the upper stratospheric polar jet, caused by the SSW event. Waves that propagated downward led to the formation of a deep trough over Eurasia and brought extreme cold weather over Kazakhstan, the Southern part of Russia and the Northwestern part of China during mid-January 2013.

  9. Large reptiles and cold temperatures: Do extreme cold spells set distributional limits for tropical reptiles in Florida? (United States)

    Mazzotti, Frank J.; Cherkiss, Michael S.; Parry, Mark; Beauchamp, Jeff; Rochford, Mike; Smith, Brian J.; Hart, Kristen M.; Brandt, Laura A.


    Distributional limits of many tropical species in Florida are ultimately determined by tolerance to low temperature. An unprecedented cold spell during 2–11 January 2010, in South Florida provided an opportunity to compare the responses of tropical American crocodiles with warm-temperate American alligators and to compare the responses of nonnative Burmese pythons with native warm-temperate snakes exposed to prolonged cold temperatures. After the January 2010 cold spell, a record number of American crocodiles (n = 151) and Burmese pythons (n = 36) were found dead. In contrast, no American alligators and no native snakes were found dead. American alligators and American crocodiles behaved differently during the cold spell. American alligators stopped basking and retreated to warmer water. American crocodiles apparently continued to bask during extreme cold temperatures resulting in lethal body temperatures. The mortality of Burmese pythons compared to the absence of mortality for native snakes suggests that the current population of Burmese pythons in the Everglades is less tolerant of cold temperatures than native snakes. Burmese pythons introduced from other parts of their native range may be more tolerant of cold temperatures. We documented the direct effects of cold temperatures on crocodiles and pythons; however, evidence of long-term effects of cold temperature on their populations within their established ranges remains lacking. Mortality of crocodiles and pythons outside of their current established range may be more important in setting distributional limits.

  10. Modeling extreme "Carrington-type" space weather events using three-dimensional global MHD simulations (United States)

    Ngwira, Chigomezyo M.; Pulkkinen, Antti; Kuznetsova, Maria M.; Glocer, Alex


    There is a growing concern over possible severe societal consequences related to adverse space weather impacts on man-made technological infrastructure. In the last two decades, significant progress has been made toward the first-principles modeling of space weather events, and three-dimensional (3-D) global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) models have been at the forefront of this transition, thereby playing a critical role in advancing our understanding of space weather. However, the modeling of extreme space weather events is still a major challenge even for the modern global MHD models. In this study, we introduce a specially adapted University of Michigan 3-D global MHD model for simulating extreme space weather events with a Dst footprint comparable to the Carrington superstorm of September 1859 based on the estimate by Tsurutani et. al. (2003). Results are presented for a simulation run with "very extreme" constructed/idealized solar wind boundary conditions driving the magnetosphere. In particular, we describe the reaction of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system and the associated induced geoelectric field on the ground to such extreme driving conditions. The model setup is further tested using input data for an observed space weather event of Halloween storm October 2003 to verify the MHD model consistence and to draw additional guidance for future work. This extreme space weather MHD model setup is designed specifically for practical application to the modeling of extreme geomagnetically induced electric fields, which can drive large currents in ground-based conductor systems such as power transmission grids. Therefore, our ultimate goal is to explore the level of geoelectric fields that can be induced from an assumed storm of the reported magnitude, i.e., Dst˜=-1600 nT.

  11. Introduction to the special issue: Observed and projected changes in weather and climate extremes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John E. Hay


    Full Text Available This Special Issue documents not only the more recent progress made in detecting and attributing changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the observational record, but also in projecting changes in such extremes at regional and local scales. It also deals with the impacts and other consequences and implications of both the historic and anticipated changes in extreme weather and climate events. Impact assessments using both dynamical downscaling and statistical modelling for two tropical cyclones are reported, as well as for storm surge and extreme wave changes. The Special Issue concludes with a consideration of some policy implications and practical applications arising from our relatively robust understanding of how the build up of greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere affects weather and climate extremes.

  12. Constructing and screening a metagenomic library of a cold and alkaline extreme environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Glaring, Mikkel Andreas; Vester, Jan Kjølhede; Stougaard, Peter


    Natural cold or alkaline environments are common on Earth. A rare combination of these two extremes is found in the permanently cold (less than 6 °C) and alkaline (pH above 10) ikaite columns in the Ikka Fjord in Southern Greenland. Bioprospecting efforts have established the ikaite columns...

  13. A low cost, high precision extreme/harsh cold environment, autonomous sensor data gathering and transmission platform. (United States)

    Chetty, S.; Field, L. A.


    SWIMS III, is a low cost, autonomous sensor data gathering platform developed specifically for extreme/harsh cold environments. Arctic ocean's continuing decrease of summer-time ice is related to rapidly diminishing multi-year ice due to the effects of climate change. Ice911 Research aims to develop environmentally inert materials that when deployed will increase the albedo, enabling the formation and/preservation of multi-year ice. SWIMS III's sophisticated autonomous sensors are designed to measure the albedo, weather, water temperature and other environmental parameters. This platform uses low cost, high accuracy/precision sensors, extreme environment command and data handling computer system using satellite and terrestrial wireless solution. The system also incorporates tilt sensors and sonar based ice thickness sensors. The system is light weight and can be deployed by hand by a single person. This presentation covers the technical, and design challenges in developing and deploying these platforms.

  14. Frequent extreme cold exposure and brown fat and cold-induced thermogenesis: a study in a monozygotic twin.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maarten J Vosselman

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Mild cold acclimation is known to increase brown adipose tissue (BAT activity and cold-induced thermogenesis (CIT in humans. We here tested the effect of a lifestyle with frequent exposure to extreme cold on BAT and CIT in a Dutch man known as 'the Iceman', who has multiple world records in withstanding extreme cold challenges. Furthermore, his monozygotic twin brother who has a 'normal' sedentary lifestyle without extreme cold exposures was measured. METHODS: The Iceman (subject A and his brother (subject B were studied during mild cold (13°C and thermoneutral conditions (31°C. Measurements included BAT activity and respiratory muscle activity by [18F]FDG-PET/CT imaging and energy expenditure through indirect calorimetry. In addition, body temperatures, cardiovascular parameters, skin perfusion, and thermal sensation and comfort were measured. Finally, we determined polymorphisms for uncoupling protein-1 and β3-adrenergic receptor. RESULTS: Subjects had comparable BAT activity (A: 1144 SUVtotal and B: 1325 SUVtotal, within the range previously observed in young adult men. They were genotyped with the polymorphism for uncoupling protein-1 (G/G. CIT was relatively high (A: 40.1% and B: 41.9%, but unlike during our previous cold exposure tests in young adult men, here both subjects practiced a g-Tummo like breathing technique, which involves vigorous respiratory muscle activity. This was confirmed by high [18F]FDG-uptake in respiratory muscle. CONCLUSION: No significant differences were found between the two subjects, indicating that a lifestyle with frequent exposures to extreme cold does not seem to affect BAT activity and CIT. In both subjects, BAT was not higher compared to earlier observations, whereas CIT was very high, suggesting that g-Tummo like breathing during cold exposure may cause additional heat production by vigorous isometric respiratory muscle contraction. The results must be interpreted with caution given the

  15. Local health and social care responses to implementing the national cold weather plan. (United States)

    Heffernan, C; Jones, L; Ritchie, B; Erens, B; Chalabi, Zaid; Mays, N


    The Cold Weather Plan (CWP) for England was launched by the Department of Health in 2011 to prevent avoidable harm to health by cold weather by enabling individuals to prepare and respond appropriately. This study sought the views of local decision makers involved in the implementation of the CWP in the winter of 2012/13 to establish the effects of the CWP on local planning. It was part of a multi-component independent evaluation of the CWP. Ten LA areas were purposively sampled which varied in level of deprivation and urbanism. Fifty-two semi-structured interviews were held with health and social care managers involved in local planning between November 2012 and May 2013. Thematic analysis revealed that the CWP was considered a useful framework to formalize working arrangements between agencies though local leadership varied across localities. There were difficulties in engaging general practitioners, differences in defining vulnerable individuals and a lack of performance monitoring mechanisms. The CWP was welcomed by local health and social care managers, and improved proactive winter preparedness. Areas for improvement include better integration with general practice, and targeting resources at socially isolated individuals in cold homes with specific interventions aimed at reducing social isolation and building community resilience. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail:

  16. Weather extremes and the Romans - A marine palynological perspective on Italian temperature and precipitation between 200 BC and 500 AD (United States)

    Zonneveld, Karin; Clotten, Caroline; Chen, Liang


    Sediments of a tephra-dated marine sediment core located at the distal part of the Po-river discharge plume (southern Italy) have been studied with a three annual resolution. Based on the variability in the dinoflagellate cyst content detailed reconstructions have been established of variability in precipitation related river discharge rates and local air temperature. Furthermore about the variability in distort water quality has been reconstructed. We show that both precipitation and temperature signals vary in tune with cyclic changes in solar insolation. On top of these cyclic changes, short term extremes in temperature and precipitation can be observed that can be interpreted to reflect periods of local weather extremes. Comparison of our reconstructions with historical information suggest that times of high temperatures and maximal precipitation corresponds to the period of maximal expansion of the Roman Empire. We have strong indications that at this time discharge waters might have contained higher nutrient concentrations compared to previous and later time intervals suggesting anthropogenic influence of the water quality. First pilot-results suggest that the decrease in temperature reconstructed just after the "Roman Optimum" corresponds to an increase in numbers of armored conflicts between the Roman and German cultures. Furthermore we observe a resemblance in timing of short-term intervals with cold weather spells during the early so called "Dark-Age-Period" to correspond to epidemic/pandemic events in Europe.

  17. The impact of extreme weather conditions on the life of settlers in the Central Russia in X - XVI centuries (United States)

    Graves, Irina; Nizovtsev, Viacheslav; Erman, Natalia


    A special place in the reconstruction of climate dynamics takes an analysis of extraordinary meteorological phenomena. These extreme weather events in the first place impact the functioning of, the rhythm and dynamics of the landscapes and determine not only the features of economy, but also certain aspects of historical development. In the analysis of primary chronicles and published data, along with the direct climatic characteristics (hot, warm, cold, wet, dry, etc.) a lot of attention was paid to abnormal (extreme) natural phenomena and indirect indications of climate variability (floods, crop failures, hunger years, epidemics, etc.). As a result, tables were compiled reflecting climatic basic characteristics and extremes for each year since 900 BC. X-XI centuries was a period of minor climatic optimum - the climate was warmer and drier than the modern one. In addition to higher temperatures (up to 1-3C above than mordern), during this period there were no severe winters. A small amount of summer rainfall has led to a reduction in the number of small water reservoirs and flooding rivers. This is evidenced by Slavic settlements on floodplains of a number of rivers in the Moscow region. It is in this favorable climatic time the way "from the Vikings to the Greeks" was open. Catastrophic natural events had a minimum repeatability. For example, during the X century the Russian chronicles mentioned 41 extreme event, but for the XIII century - 102. Most of the villages and towns were located on the low floodplain terraces of rivers. The main farmland was concentrated there as well. In the "period of contrasts" (XIII - XIV centuries) there was an increase of intra-seasonal climate variability, humidity and widespread reduction in summer temperatures by 1-2C. The number of extreme weather events increased: cold prolonged winters, long rains in summers, cold weather returns in the early summer, early frosts in late summer - early autumn. Such conditions often

  18. Quantifying the daily economic impact of extreme space weather due to failure in electricity transmission infrastructure (United States)

    Oughton, Edward J.; Skelton, Andrew; Horne, Richard B.; Thomson, Alan W. P.; Gaunt, Charles T.


    Extreme space weather due to coronal mass ejections has the potential to cause considerable disruption to the global economy by damaging the transformers required to operate electricity transmission infrastructure. However, expert opinion is split between the potential outcome being one of a temporary regional blackout and of a more prolonged event. The temporary blackout scenario proposed by some is expected to last the length of the disturbance, with normal operations resuming after a couple of days. On the other hand, others have predicted widespread equipment damage with blackout scenarios lasting months. In this paper we explore the potential costs associated with failure in the electricity transmission infrastructure in the U.S. due to extreme space weather, focusing on daily economic loss. This provides insight into the direct and indirect economic consequences of how an extreme space weather event may affect domestic production, as well as other nations, via supply chain linkages. By exploring the sensitivity of the blackout zone, we show that on average the direct economic cost incurred from disruption to electricity represents only 49% of the total potential macroeconomic cost. Therefore, if indirect supply chain costs are not considered when undertaking cost-benefit analysis of space weather forecasting and mitigation investment, the total potential macroeconomic cost is not correctly represented. The paper contributes to our understanding of the economic impact of space weather, as well as making a number of key methodological contributions relevant for future work. Further economic impact assessment of this threat must consider multiday, multiregional events.

  19. Restoring surface fire stabilizes forest carbon under extreme fire weather in the Sierra Nevada (United States)

    Daniel J. Krofcheck; Matthew D. Hurteau; Robert M. Scheller; E. Louise Loudermilk


    Climate change in the western United States has increased the frequency of extreme fire weather events and is projected to increase the area burned by wildfire in the coming decades. This changing fire regime, coupled with increased high-severity fire risk from a legacy of fire exclusion, could destabilize forest carbon (C), decrease net ecosystem exchange (...

  20. Increasing occurrence of cold and warm extremes during the recent global warming slowdown. (United States)

    Johnson, Nathaniel C; Xie, Shang-Ping; Kosaka, Yu; Li, Xichen


    The recent levelling of global mean temperatures after the late 1990s, the so-called global warming hiatus or slowdown, ignited a surge of scientific interest into natural global mean surface temperature variability, observed temperature biases, and climate communication, but many questions remain about how these findings relate to variations in more societally relevant temperature extremes. Here we show that both summertime warm and wintertime cold extreme occurrences increased over land during the so-called hiatus period, and that these increases occurred for distinct reasons. The increase in cold extremes is associated with an atmospheric circulation pattern resembling the warm Arctic-cold continents pattern, whereas the increase in warm extremes is tied to a pattern of sea surface temperatures resembling the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These findings indicate that large-scale factors responsible for the most societally relevant temperature variations over continents are distinct from those of global mean surface temperature.

  1. Evaluation of a compound distribution based on weather pattern subsampling for extreme rainfall in Norway

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Blanchet


    SCHADEX method for extreme flood estimation. Regional scores of evaluation are used in a split sample framework to compare the MEWP distribution with more general heavy-tailed distributions, in this case the Multi Generalized Pareto Weather Pattern (MGPWP distribution. The analysis shows the clear benefit obtained from seasonal and weather pattern-based subsampling for extreme value estimation. The MEWP distribution is found to have an overall better performance as compared with the MGPWP, which tends to overfit the data and lacks robustness. Finally, we take advantage of the split sample framework to present evidence for an increase in extreme rainfall in the southwestern part of Norway during the period 1979–2009, relative to 1948–1978.

  2. Review on the Strength Development Required for the Concrete Structure of Nuclear Power Plant under Cold Weather Conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koh, Kyung Teak; Park, Chun Jin; Ryu, Gum Sung; Kim, Do Gyeum; Lee, Jang Hwa [Korea Institute of Construction Technology, Goyang (Korea, Republic of)


    As a part of a Department of Energy-Nuclear According to the specifications for the construction execution for a nuclear power plant (NPP), the cold weather concrete should be facilitated that comply with the regulations of ACI-306R. Here, in terms of the standards applied to the cold weather concrete, such concrete should be applied in the case where the daily average temperature is 5 .deg. C or less. So, according to the analysis on the average temperature in winter over the last one year at each NPP construction area, it was found that such had lowered by about 0.5 - 2 .deg. C as compared to the temperature during the normal years (the last ten years) and the number of days applied to the cold weather concrete according to the ACI regulations was shown as 83, so as around 1/4 of year falls into the cold weather conditions and furthermore the recent weather is getting severe, it is necessary to perform the appropriate insulation curing for the cold weather concrete. On the other hand, according to the regulations with regards to the curing conditions for cold weather concrete, the insulation curing of such should be appropriately performed under an environment of 5 .deg. C or greater until the strength of 3.5 MPa (500 Psi) develops. Likewise, according to the regulations regarding the cold weather concrete in the domestic concrete specifications, the insulation curing should be performed until a strength development of 5 MPa (715 Psi) considering the safety factor indicated to the ACI regulation under the temperature of 5 .deg. C or greater. According to the above-mentioned regulations, the NPP structure is required to develop a minimum strength of 5 MPa or greater, and to maintain such important qualities, including strength development, early anti-freezing and duality under cold weather conditions. However, even though the early strength of 5 MPa or greater is secured under the recent abnormal weather conditions and cold weather conditions, if the structure is

  3. Landslides in West Coast Metropolitan Areas: The Role of Extreme Weather Events (United States)

    Biasutti, Michela; Seager, Richard; Kirschbaum, Dalia B.


    Rainfall-induced landslides represent a pervasive issue in areas where extreme rainfall intersects complex terrain. A farsighted management of landslide risk requires assessing how landslide hazard will change in coming decades and thus requires, inter alia, that we understand what rainfall events are most likely to trigger landslides and how global warming will affect the frequency of such weather events. We take advantage of 9 years of landslide occurrence data compiled by collating Google news reports and of a high-resolution satellite-based daily rainfall data to investigate what weather triggers landslide along the West Coast US. We show that, while this landslide compilation cannot provide consistent and widespread monitoring everywhere, it captures enough of the events in the major urban areas that it can be used to identify the relevant relationships between landslides and rainfall events in Puget Sound, the Bay Area, and greater Los Angeles. In all these regions, days that recorded landslides have rainfall distributions that are skewed away from dry and low-rainfall accumulations and towards heavy intensities. However, large daily accumulation is the main driver of enhanced hazard of landslides only in Puget Sound. There, landslide are often clustered in space and time and major events are primarily driven by synoptic scale variability, namely "atmospheric rivers" of high humidity air hitting anywhere along the West Coast, and the interaction of frontal system with the coastal orography. The relationship between landslide occurrences and daily rainfall is less robust in California, where antecedent precipitation (in the case of the Bay area) and the peak intensity of localized downpours at sub-daily time scales (in the case of Los Angeles) are key factors not captured by the same-day accumulations. Accordingly, we suggest that the assessment of future changes in landslide hazard for the entire the West Coast requires consideration of future changes in the

  4. Analysis of farmers’ adaptation to weather extremes in West African Sudan Savanna

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Boansi


    Full Text Available There have been recent incidences of weather extremes in the West African Sudan Savanna and farmers have responded through implementation of relevant adaptation strategies. For a deeper insight into farmers’ adaptation to climatic shocks, this study documents farmers’ perception of recent changes in the local climate, and identifies factors that influence the number and choice of strategies implemented. Interdependencies among strategies are explored and joint and marginal probabilities of adoption estimated. Upper East Ghana and Southwest Burkina Faso are used as the case study regions. These regions were selected due to extreme reliance of inhabitants on agriculture for sustenance, and their recent exposure to weather extremes. Through estimation of a Poisson regression and multivariate probit model to identify the major factors that influence the number and choice of strategies adopted, we discover that, limited access to credit, markets, and extension services, smaller cropland area, and low level of mechanization could impede effective adaptation to weather extremes. To enhance farmers’ adaptive capacity, policy makers and various stakeholders need to contribute towards improving farmers’ access to credit, markets, and extension services, and implement measures to promote mechanization.

  5. Hatching delays in great tits and blue tits in response to an extreme cold spell: a long-term study (United States)

    Glądalski, Michał; Bańbura, Mirosława; Kaliński, Adam; Markowski, Marcin; Skwarska, Joanna; Wawrzyniak, Jarosław; Zieliński, Piotr; Bańbura, Jerzy


    Variation in ambient temperature affects various life stages of organisms. It has been suggested that climate change not only implies higher global temperatures but also more unpredictable weather and more frequent extreme weather events. Temperature has a major influence on the optimal laying-incubation-hatching dates of insectivorous passerines, because it poses energetic constraints and affects the timing of food abundance. We have been studying breeding characteristics of great tits Parus major and blue tits Cyanistes caeruleus in two areas, an urban parkland and a deciduous forest, around the city of Łódź since 2002. During the egg-laying period in 2017, both tit species at both study areas faced an unusual cold spell as reflected by a sudden decrease in the mean ambient temperature to ca. 2-3 °C for about 5 days, which caused mean hatching delays of up to 6 days. Since flexibility of behavior plays a major role in adjusting to unpredictable weather conditions, examining its limits may be an important goal for future research.

  6. Constructing and Screening a Metagenomic Library of a Cold and Alkaline Extreme Environment. (United States)

    Glaring, Mikkel A; Vester, Jan K; Stougaard, Peter


    Natural cold or alkaline environments are common on Earth. A rare combination of these two extremes is found in the permanently cold (less than 6 °C) and alkaline (pH above 10) ikaite columns in the Ikka Fjord in Southern Greenland. Bioprospecting efforts have established the ikaite columns as a source of bacteria and enzymes adapted to these conditions. They have also highlighted the limitations of cultivation-based methods in this extreme environment and metagenomic approaches may provide access to novel extremophilic enzymes from the uncultured majority of bacteria. Here, we describe the construction and screening of a metagenomic library of the prokaryotic community inhabiting the ikaite columns.

  7. Technology-derived storage solutions for stabilizing insulin in extreme weather conditions I: the ViViCap-1 device. (United States)

    Pfützner, Andreas; Pesach, Gidi; Nagar, Ron


    Injectable life-saving drugs should not be exposed to temperatures 30°C/86°F. Frequently, weather conditions exceed these temperature thresholds in many countries. Insulin is to be kept at 4-8°C/~ 39-47°F until use and once opened, is supposed to be stable for up to 31 days at room temperature (exception: 42 days for insulin levemir). Extremely hot or cold external temperature can lead to insulin degradation in a very short time with loss of its glucose-lowering efficacy. Combined chemical and engineering solutions for heat protection are employed in ViViCap-1 for disposable insulin pens. The device works based on vacuum insulation and heat consumption by phase-change material. Laboratory studies with exposure of ViViCap-1 to hot outside conditions were performed to evaluate the device performance. ViViCap-1 keeps insulin at an internal temperature phase-change process and 'recharges' the device for further use. ViViCap-1 performed within its specifications. The small and convenient device maintains the efficacy and safety of using insulin even when carried under hot weather conditions.

  8. Providing the Larger Climate Context During Extreme Weather - Lessons from Local Television News (United States)

    Woods, M.; Cullen, H. M.


    Local television weathercasters, in their role as Station Scientists, are often called upon to educate viewers about the science and impacts of climate change. Climate Central supports these efforts through its Climate Matters program. Launched in 2010 with support from the National Science Foundation, the program has grown into a network that includes more than 245 weathercasters from across the country and provides localized information on climate and ready-to-use, broadcast quality graphics and analyses in both English and Spanish. This presentation will focus on discussing best practices for integrating climate science into the local weather forecast as well as advances in the science of extreme event attribution. The Chief Meteorologist at News10 (Sacramento, CA) will discuss local news coverage of the ongoing California drought, extreme weather and climate literacy.

  9. Recent Weather Extremes and Impacts on Agricultural Production and Vector-Borne Disease Outbreak Patterns (United States)

    Anyamba, Assaf; Small, Jennifer L.; Britch, Seth C.; Tucker, Compton J.; Pak, Edwin W.; Reynolds, Curt A.; Crutchfield, James; Linthicum, Kenneth J.


    We document significant worldwide weather anomalies that affected agriculture and vector-borne disease outbreaks during the 2010-2012 period. We utilized 2000-2012 vegetation index and land surface temperature data from NASA's satellite-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to map the magnitude and extent of these anomalies for diverse regions including the continental United States, Russia, East Africa, Southern Africa, and Australia. We demonstrate that shifts in temperature and/or precipitation have significant impacts on vegetation patterns with attendant consequences for agriculture and public health. Weather extremes resulted in excessive rainfall and flooding as well as severe drought, which caused,10 to 80% variation in major agricultural commodity production (including wheat, corn, cotton, sorghum) and created exceptional conditions for extensive mosquito-borne disease outbreaks of dengue, Rift Valley fever, Murray Valley encephalitis, and West Nile virus disease. Analysis of MODIS data provided a standardized method for quantifying the extreme weather anomalies observed during this period. Assessments of land surface conditions from satellite-based systems such as MODIS can be a valuable tool in national, regional, and global weather impact determinations.

  10. Recent weather extremes and impacts on agricultural production and vector-borne disease outbreak patterns.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Assaf Anyamba

    Full Text Available We document significant worldwide weather anomalies that affected agriculture and vector-borne disease outbreaks during the 2010-2012 period. We utilized 2000-2012 vegetation index and land surface temperature data from NASA's satellite-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS to map the magnitude and extent of these anomalies for diverse regions including the continental United States, Russia, East Africa, Southern Africa, and Australia. We demonstrate that shifts in temperature and/or precipitation have significant impacts on vegetation patterns with attendant consequences for agriculture and public health. Weather extremes resulted in excessive rainfall and flooding as well as severe drought, which caused ∼10 to 80% variation in major agricultural commodity production (including wheat, corn, cotton, sorghum and created exceptional conditions for extensive mosquito-borne disease outbreaks of dengue, Rift Valley fever, Murray Valley encephalitis, and West Nile virus disease. Analysis of MODIS data provided a standardized method for quantifying the extreme weather anomalies observed during this period. Assessments of land surface conditions from satellite-based systems such as MODIS can be a valuable tool in national, regional, and global weather impact determinations.

  11. Numerical tools to predict the environmental loads for offshore structures under extreme weather conditions (United States)

    Wu, Yanling


    In this paper, the extreme waves were generated using the open source computational fluid dynamic (CFD) tools — OpenFOAM and Waves2FOAM — using linear and nonlinear NewWave input. They were used to conduct the numerical simulation of the wave impact process. Numerical tools based on first-order (with and without stretching) and second-order NewWave are investigated. The simulation to predict force loading for the offshore platform under the extreme weather condition is implemented and compared.

  12. Extreme weather events in developing countries and related injuries and mental health disorders - a systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisabeth Rataj


    Full Text Available Abstract Background Due to climate change, extreme weather events have an incremental impact on human health. Injuries and mental health disorders are a particular burden of disease, which is broadly investigated in high income countries. Most distressed populations are, however, those in developing countries. Therefore, this study investigates mental and physical health impacts arising from extreme weather events in these populations. Method Post-traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD, injury [primary outcomes], anxiety and depressive disorders [secondary outcomes], caused by weather extremes were systematically analyzed in people of developing countries. A systematic review of observational studies was conducted searching six databases, complemented by hand search, and utilizing two search engines. Review processing was done independently by two reviewers. Prevalence rates were analyzed in a pre/post design; an additional semi-structured search was conducted, to provide reference data for studies not incorporating reference values. Results All 17 identified studies (70,842 individuals indicate a disease increase, compared to the reference data. Increase ranges from 0.7–52.6 % for PTSD, and from 0.3–37.3 % for injury. No studies on droughts and heatwaves were identified. All studies were conducted in South America and Asia. Conclusion There is an increased burden of psychological diseases and injury. This finding needs to be incorporated into activities of prevention, preparedness and general health care of those developing countries increasingly experiencing extreme weather events. There is also a gap in research in Africa (in quantity and quality of studies in this field and a predominant heterogeneity of health assessment tools. PROSPERO registration no.: CRD42014009109

  13. Modernizing Distribution System Restoration to Achieve Grid Resiliency Against Extreme Weather Events: An Integrated Solution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Chen; Wang, Jianhui; Ton, Dan


    Recent severe power outages caused by extreme weather hazards have highlighted the importance and urgency of improving the resilience of the electric power grid. As the distribution grids still remain vulnerable to natural disasters, the power industry has focused on methods of restoring distribution systems after disasters in an effective and quick manner. The current distribution system restoration practice for utilities is mainly based on predetermined priorities and tends to be inefficient and suboptimal, and the lack of situational awareness after the hazard significantly delays the restoration process. As a result, customers may experience an extended blackout, which causes large economic loss. On the other hand, the emerging advanced devices and technologies enabled through grid modernization efforts have the potential to improve the distribution system restoration strategy. However, utilizing these resources to aid the utilities in better distribution system restoration decision-making in response to extreme weather events is a challenging task. Therefore, this paper proposes an integrated solution: a distribution system restoration decision support tool designed by leveraging resources developed for grid modernization. We first review the current distribution restoration practice and discuss why it is inadequate in response to extreme weather events. Then we describe how the grid modernization efforts could benefit distribution system restoration, and we propose an integrated solution in the form of a decision support tool to achieve the goal. The advantages of the solution include improving situational awareness of the system damage status and facilitating survivability for customers. The paper provides a comprehensive review of how the existing methodologies in the literature could be leveraged to achieve the key advantages. The benefits of the developed system restoration decision support tool include the optimal and efficient allocation of repair crews

  14. Simulation of the 23 July 2012 Extreme Space Weather Event: What if This Extremely Rare CME Was Earth Directed? (United States)

    Ngwira, Chigomezyo M.; Pulkkinen, Antti; Mays, M. Leila; Kuznetsova, Maria M.; Galvin, A. B.; Simunac, Kristin; Baker, Daniel N.; Li, Xinlin; Zheng, Yihua; Glocer, Alex


    Extreme space weather events are known to cause adverse impacts on critical modern day technological infrastructure such as high-voltage electric power transmission grids. On 23 July 2012, NASA's Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory-Ahead (STEREO-A) spacecraft observed in situ an extremely fast coronal mass ejection (CME) that traveled 0.96 astronomical units (approx. 1 AU) in about 19 h. Here we use the SpaceWeather Modeling Framework (SWMF) to perform a simulation of this rare CME.We consider STEREO-A in situ observations to represent the upstream L1 solar wind boundary conditions. The goal of this study is to examine what would have happened if this Rare-type CME was Earth-bound. Global SWMF-generated ground geomagnetic field perturbations are used to compute the simulated induced geoelectric field at specific ground-based active INTERMAGNET magnetometer sites. Simulation results show that while modeled global SYM-H index, a high-resolution equivalent of the Dst index, was comparable to previously observed severe geomagnetic storms such as the Halloween 2003 storm, the 23 July CME would have produced some of the largest geomagnetically induced electric fields, making it very geoeffective. These results have important practical applications for risk management of electrical power grids.

  15. Semi-supervised tracking of extreme weather events in global spatio-temporal climate datasets (United States)

    Kim, S. K.; Prabhat, M.; Williams, D. N.


    Deep neural networks have been successfully applied to solve problem to detect extreme weather events in large scale climate datasets and attend superior performance that overshadows all previous hand-crafted methods. Recent work has shown that multichannel spatiotemporal encoder-decoder CNN architecture is able to localize events in semi-supervised bounding box. Motivated by this work, we propose new learning metric based on Variational Auto-Encoders (VAE) and Long-Short-Term-Memory (LSTM) to track extreme weather events in spatio-temporal dataset. We consider spatio-temporal object tracking problems as learning probabilistic distribution of continuous latent features of auto-encoder using stochastic variational inference. For this, we assume that our datasets are i.i.d and latent features is able to be modeled by Gaussian distribution. In proposed metric, we first train VAE to generate approximate posterior given multichannel climate input with an extreme climate event at fixed time. Then, we predict bounding box, location and class of extreme climate events using convolutional layers given input concatenating three features including embedding, sampled mean and standard deviation. Lastly, we train LSTM with concatenated input to learn timely information of dataset by recurrently feeding output back to next time-step's input of VAE. Our contribution is two-fold. First, we show the first semi-supervised end-to-end architecture based on VAE to track extreme weather events which can apply to massive scaled unlabeled climate datasets. Second, the information of timely movement of events is considered for bounding box prediction using LSTM which can improve accuracy of localization. To our knowledge, this technique has not been explored neither in climate community or in Machine Learning community.

  16. Weather patterns and hydro-climatological precursors of extreme floods in Switzerland since 1868

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stucki, Peter; Rickli, Ralph; Broennimann, Stefan; Martius, Olivia; Wanner, Heinz; Bern Univ.; Grebner, Dietmar; Luterbacher, Juerg


    The generation of 24 extreme floods in large catchments of the central Alps is analyzed from instrumental and documentary data, newly digitized observations of precipitation (DigiHom) and 20 th Century Reanalysis (20CR) data. Extreme floods are determined by the 95 th percentile of differences between an annual flood and a defined contemporary flood. For a selection of six events between 1868 and 1910, we describe preconditioning elements such as precipitation, temperature, and snow cover anomalies. Specific weather patterns are assessed through a subjective analysis of three-dimensional atmospheric circulation. A focus is placed on synoptic-scale features including mid-tropospheric ascent, low-level moisture transport, propagation of cyclones, and temperature anomalies. We propose a hydro-meteorological classification of all 24 investigated events according to flood-generating weather conditions. Key elements of the upper-level synoptic-scale flow are summarized by five types: (i) pivoting cut-off lows, (ii) elongated cut-off lows, (iii) elongated troughs, (iv) waves (with a kink), and (v) approximately zonal flow over the Alpine region. We found that the most extreme floods (as above, but ≥ 98 th percentile) in Switzerland since 1868 were caused by the interaction of severe hydro-climatologic conditions with a flood-inducing weather situation. The 20CR data provide plausible synoptic-scale meteorological patterns leading to heavy precipitation. The proposed catalogue of weather patterns and hydro-climatologic precursors can give direction when anticipating the possibility of severe floods in the Alpine region. (orig.)

  17. Living with extreme weather events - perspectives from climatology, geomorphological analysis, chronicles and opinion polls (United States)

    Auer, I.; Kirchengast, A.; Proske, H.


    The ongoing climate change debate focuses more and more on changing extreme events. Information on past events can be derived from a number of sources, such as instrumental data, residual impacts in the landscape, but also chronicles and people's memories. A project called "A Tale of Two Valleys” within the framework of the research program "proVision” allowed to study past extreme events in two inner-alpine valleys from the sources mentioned before. Instrumental climate time series provided information for the past 200 years, however great attention had to be given to the homogeneity of the series. To derive homogenized time series of selected climate change indices methods like HOCLIS and Vincent have been applied. Trend analyses of climate change indices inform about increase or decrease of extreme events. Traces of major geomorphodynamic processes of the past (e.g. rockfalls, landslides, debris flows) which were triggered or affected by extreme weather events are still apparent in the landscape and could be evaluated by geomorphological analysis using remote sensing and field data. Regional chronicles provided additional knowledge and covered longer periods back in time, however compared to meteorological time series they enclose a high degree of subjectivity and intermittent recordings cannot be obviated. Finally, questionnaires and oral history complemented our picture of past extreme weather events. People were differently affected and have different memories of it. The joint analyses of these four data sources showed agreement to some extent, however also showed some reasonable differences: meteorological data are point measurements only with a sometimes too coarse temporal resolution. Due to land-use changes and improved constructional measures the impact of an extreme meteorological event may be different today compared to earlier times.

  18. Economic Evaluations of the Health Impacts of Weather-Related Extreme Events: A Scoping Review (United States)

    Schmitt, Laetitia H. M.; Graham, Hilary M.; White, Piran C. L.


    The frequency and severity of extreme events is expected to increase under climate change. There is a need to understand the economic consequences of human exposure to these extreme events, to underpin decisions on risk reduction. We undertook a scoping review of economic evaluations of the adverse health effects from exposure to weather-related extreme events. We searched PubMed, Embase and Web of Science databases with no restrictions to the type of evaluations. Twenty studies were included, most of which were recently published. Most studies have been undertaken in the U.S. (nine studies) or Asia (seven studies), whereas we found no studies in Africa, Central and Latin America nor the Middle East. Extreme temperatures accounted for more than a third of the pool of studies (seven studies), closely followed by flooding (six studies). No economic study was found on drought. Whilst studies were heterogeneous in terms of objectives and methodology, they clearly indicate that extreme events will become a pressing public health issue with strong welfare and distributional implications. The current body of evidence, however, provides little information to support decisions on the allocation of scarce resources between risk reduction options. In particular, the review highlights a significant lack of research attention to the potential cost-effectiveness of interventions that exploit the capacity of natural ecosystems to reduce our exposure to, or ameliorate the consequences of, extreme events. PMID:27834843

  19. Economic Evaluations of the Health Impacts of Weather-Related Extreme Events: A Scoping Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laetitia H. M. Schmitt


    Full Text Available The frequency and severity of extreme events is expected to increase under climate change. There is a need to understand the economic consequences of human exposure to these extreme events, to underpin decisions on risk reduction. We undertook a scoping review of economic evaluations of the adverse health effects from exposure to weather-related extreme events. We searched PubMed, Embase and Web of Science databases with no restrictions to the type of evaluations. Twenty studies were included, most of which were recently published. Most studies have been undertaken in the U.S. (nine studies or Asia (seven studies, whereas we found no studies in Africa, Central and Latin America nor the Middle East. Extreme temperatures accounted for more than a third of the pool of studies (seven studies, closely followed by flooding (six studies. No economic study was found on drought. Whilst studies were heterogeneous in terms of objectives and methodology, they clearly indicate that extreme events will become a pressing public health issue with strong welfare and distributional implications. The current body of evidence, however, provides little information to support decisions on the allocation of scarce resources between risk reduction options. In particular, the review highlights a significant lack of research attention to the potential cost-effectiveness of interventions that exploit the capacity of natural ecosystems to reduce our exposure to, or ameliorate the consequences of, extreme events.

  20. No evidence of the effect of extreme weather events on annual occurrence of four groups of ectothermic species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agnieszka H Malinowska

    Full Text Available Weather extremes may have strong effects on biodiversity, as known from theoretical and modelling studies. Predicted negative effects of increased weather variation are found only for a few species, mostly plants and birds in empirical studies. Therefore, we investigated correlations between weather variability and patterns in occupancy, local colonisations and local extinctions (metapopulation metrics across four groups of ectotherms: Odonata, Orthoptera, Lepidoptera, and Reptilia. We analysed data of 134 species on a 1×1 km-grid base, collected in the last 20 years from the Netherlands, combining standardised data and opportunistic data. We applied dynamic site-occupancy models and used the results as input for analyses of (i trends in distribution patterns, (ii the effect of temperature on colonisation and persistence probability, and (iii the effect of years with extreme weather on all the three metapopulation metrics. All groups, except butterflies, showed more positive than negative trends in metapopulation metrics. We did not find evidence that the probability of colonisation or persistence increases with temperature nor that extreme weather events are reflected in higher extinction risks. We could not prove that weather extremes have visible and consistent negative effects on ectothermic species in temperate northern hemisphere. These findings do not confirm the general prediction that increased weather variability imperils biodiversity. We conclude that weather extremes might not be ecologically relevant for the majority of species. Populations might be buffered against weather variation (e.g. by habitat heterogeneity, or other factors might be masking the effects (e.g. availability and quality of habitat. Consequently, we postulate that weather extremes have less, or different, impact in real world metapopulations than theory and models suggest.

  1. Typical patterns of smallholder vulnerability to weather extremes with regard to food security in the Peruvian Altiplano

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sietz, D.; Mamani Choque, S.E.; Lûdeke, M.K.B.


    Smallholder livelihoods in the Peruvian Altiplano are frequently threatened by weather extremes, including droughts, frosts and heavy rainfall. Given the persistence of significant undernourishment despite regional development efforts, we propose a cluster approach to evaluate smallholders’

  2. Impacts of cold weather on all-cause and cause-specific mortality in Texas, 1990-2011. (United States)

    Chen, Tsun-Hsuan; Li, Xiao; Zhao, Jing; Zhang, Kai


    Cold weather was estimated to account for more than half of weather-related deaths in the U.S. during 2006-2010. Studies have shown that cold-related excessive mortality is especially relevant with decreasing latitude or in regions with mild winter. However, only limited studies have been conducted in the southern U.S. The purpose of our study is to examine impacts of cold weather on mortality in 12 major Texas Metropolitan Areas (MSAs) for the 22-year period, 1990-2011. Our study used a two-stage approach to examine the cold-mortality association. We first applied distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) to 12 major MSAs to estimate cold effects for each area. A random effects meta-analysis was then used to estimate pooled effects. Age-stratified and cause-specific mortalities were modeled separately for each MSA. Most of the MSAs were associated with an increased risk in mortality ranging from 0.1% to 5.0% with a 1 °C decrease in temperature below the cold thresholds. Higher increased mortality risks were generally observed in MSAs with higher average daily mean temperatures and lower latitudes. Pooled effect estimate was 1.58% (95% Confidence Interval (CI) [0.81, 2.37]) increase in all-cause mortality risk with a 1 °C decrease in temperature. Cold wave effects in Texas were also examined, and several MSAs along the Texas Gulf Coast showed statistically significant cold wave-mortality associations. Effects of cold on all-cause mortality were highest among people over 75 years old (1.86%, 95% CI [1.09, 2.63]). Pooled estimates for cause-specific mortality were strongest in myocardial infarction (4.30%, 95% CI [1.18, 7.51]), followed by respiratory diseases (3.17%, 95% CI [0.26, 6.17]) and ischemic heart diseases (2.54%, 95% CI [1.08, 4.02]). In conclusion, cold weather generally increases mortality risk significantly in Texas, and the cold effects vary with MSAs, age groups, and cause-specific deaths. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. When Siberia comes to the Netherlands : The response of continental black-tailed godwits to extreme spring weather

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Senner, N. R.; Verhoeven, M.; Zwart, L.; Tibbitts, T. L.; Gutierrez, J.; Abad, J. M.; Piersma, Theunis


    Many migratory bird species are able to anticipate weather conditions along their migration routes and adjust their progress and behavior accordingly, but there are numerous instances of extreme weather events surprising birds mid−migration. These occurrences can act as strong selection events and

  4. Extremely Severe Space Weather and Geomagnetically Induced Currents in Regions with Locally Heterogeneous Ground Resistivity (United States)

    Fujita, Shigeru; Kataoka, Ryuho; Pulkkinen, Antti; Watari, Shinichi


    Large geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) triggered by extreme space weather events are now regarded as one of the serious natural threats to the modern electrified society. The risk is described in detail in High-Impact, Low-Frequency Event Risk, A Jointly-Commissioned Summary Report of the North American Electric Reliability Corporation and the US Department of Energy's November 2009 Workshop, June 2010. For example, the March 13-14,1989 storm caused a large-scale blackout affecting about 6 million people in Quebec, Canada, and resulting in substantial economic losses in Canada and the USA (Bolduc 2002). Therefore, European and North American nations have invested in GIC research such as the Solar Shield project in the USA (Pulkkinen et al. 2009, 2015a). In 2015, the Japanese government (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, METI) acknowledged the importance of GIC research in Japan. After reviewing the serious damages caused by the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, METI recognized the potential risk to the electric power grid posed by extreme space weather. During extreme events, GICs can be concerning even in mid- and low-latitude countries and have become a global issue.

  5. Committed Vulnerability to Extreme Weather Events in the United States (Invited) (United States)

    Preston, B. L.


    Despite improvements in disaster risk management in the United States, a trend toward increasing economic losses from extreme weather events has been observed. This trend has been attributed to growth in socioeconomic exposure to extremes driven by the concentration of population and wealth on hazardous landscapes. As geographic patterns of demography and economic development are associated with strong path dependence, the United States is ';locked-in' to future increases in exposure and associated economic losses in the decades ahead, irrespective of the influence of climate change. To understand the influence of path dependence on past and future losses, an index of potential socioeconomic exposure was developed at the U.S. county level based upon population size and inflation-adjusted wealth proxies. Since 1960, exposure has increased preferentially in the U.S. Southeast, particularly coastal and urban counties and Southwest relative to the Great Plains and Northeast. Projected changes in exposure from 2009 to 2054 based upon scenarios of future demographic and economic change suggest a long-term commitment to increasing, but spatially heterogeneous, exposure to extremes, independent of climate change. The implications of this path dependence are examined in the context of several natural hazards. Annualized county-level losses from 1960-2008 for five climate-related natural hazards were normalized to 2009 values and then scaled based upon projected changes in exposure and two different estimates of the exposure elasticity of losses. Results indicate that losses from extreme events will grow by a factor of 1.3-1.7 and 1.8-3.9 by 2025 and 2050, respectively, with the exposure elasticity representing a major source of uncertainty. At more local scales, however, such as rapidly growing metropolitan areas, losses are anticipated to grow more rapidly. As such, improving understanding of the societal implications of the extreme weather events of the future

  6. Intra-seasonal risk of agriculturally-relevant weather extremes in West African Sudan Savanna (United States)

    Boansi, David; Tambo, Justice A.; Müller, Marc


    Using household survey data and historical daily climate data for 29 communities across Upper East Ghana and Southwest Burkina Faso, we document climatic conditions deemed major threat to farming in the West African Sudan Savanna and assess risks posed by such conditions over the period 1997-2014. Based on farmers' perception, it is found that drought, low rainfall, intense precipitation, flooding, erratic rainfall pattern, extremely high temperatures, delayed rains, and early cessation of rains are the major threats farmers face. Using first-order Markov chain model and relevant indices for monitoring weather extremes, it is discovered that climatic risk is a general inherent attribute of the rainy season in the study area. Due to recent changes in onset of rains and length of the rainy season, some farmers have either resorted to early planting of drought-hardy crops, late planting of drought-sensitive crops, or spreading of planting across the first 3 months of the season to moderate harm. Each of these planting decisions however has some risk implications. The months of May, June, and October are found to be more susceptible to relatively longer duration of dry and hot spells, while July, August, and September are found to be more susceptible to intense precipitation and flooding. To moderate harm from anticipated weather extremes, farmers need to adjust their cropping calendar, adopt appropriate crop varieties, and implement soil and water management practices. For policy makers and other stakeholders, we recommend the supply of timely and accurate weather forecasts to guide farmers in their seasonal cropping decisions and investment in/installation of low cost irrigation facilities to enhance the practice of supplemental irrigation.

  7. Extreme groundwater levels caused by extreme weather conditions - the highest ever measured groundwater levels in Middle Germany and their management (United States)

    Reinstorf, F.; Kramer, S.; Koch, T.; Pfützner, B.


    Extreme weather conditions during the years 2009 - 2011 in combination with changes in the regional water management led to maximum groundwater levels in large areas of Germany in 2011. This resulted in extensive water logging, with problems especially in urban areas near rivers, where water logging produced huge problems for buildings and infrastructure. The acute situation still exists in many areas and requires the development of solution concepts. Taken the example of the Elbe-Saale-Region in the Federal State of Saxony-Anhalt, were a pilot research project was carried out, the analytical situation, the development of a management tool and the implementation of a groundwater management concept are shown. The central tool is a coupled water budget - groundwater flow model. In combination with sophisticated multi-scale parameter estimation, a high-resolution groundwater level simulation was carried out. A decision support process with an intensive stakeholder interaction combined with high-resolution simulations enables the development of a management concept for extreme groundwater situations in consideration of sustainable and environmentally sound solutions mainly on the base of passive measures.

  8. Element mobilization and redistribution under extreme tropical weathering of basalts from the Hainan Island, South China (United States)

    Jiang, Ke; Qi, Hua-Wen; Hu, Rui-Zhong


    and formation of secondary phosphates. Our findings highlight the importance of secondary phosphates in the redistribution of transition metals, and in the possible Mg, Cu, and Ni isotopic fractionation under extreme weathering of basalt in tropic climate.

  9. Powertrain preheating system of tracked hybrid electric vehicle in cold weather

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Rui; Wang, Yichun; Feng, Chaoqing; Zhang, Xilong


    In order to make sure that the heavy duty tracked vehicle can work in various conditions, especially severe cold weather, preheating system of powertrain should be adopted, and a novel preheating system is presented for the tracked hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) in which heat is generated by the low-speed drive motor. The new preheating system can meet the need of cold start without adding any additional device. The characteristic of heat generation by motor is tested when the rotor of motor is rotated in very low speed. The heat loss from power cabin to external environment has been simulated, and the relevant test has been done to verify the simulation results. Combining the characteristic of heat generation and heat loss situation about preheating system, the heat transfer model of preheating system was implemented by MATLAB. The total energy required for preheating in different ambient temperature was calculated by this model. The results showed that: the minimum heating power was 70 kW and energy required was about 180 MJ when the HEV worked in −46 °C. If lithium ferrous phosphate (LFP) battery was used in power system, the minimum battery capacity is about 290 A h. - Highlights: • A novel preheating method was proposed for heavy duty tracked HEV. • Thermal energy in preheating system is produced by the PMSM in driving system. • This method can achieve preheating target by its own components without any adding. • Analyzing low temperature performance of power battery and select its capacity.

  10. Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events. (United States)

    Mann, Michael E; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Kornhuber, Kai; Steinman, Byron A; Miller, Sonya K; Coumou, Dim


    Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been shown to be associated with the presence of high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves within a particular wavelength range (zonal wavenumber 6-8). The underlying mechanistic relationship involves the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) of synoptic-scale waves with that wavenumber range becoming trapped within an effective mid-latitude atmospheric waveguide. Recent work suggests an increase in recent decades in the occurrence of QRA-favorable conditions and associated extreme weather, possibly linked to amplified Arctic warming and thus a climate change influence. Here, we isolate a specific fingerprint in the zonal mean surface temperature profile that is associated with QRA-favorable conditions. State-of-the-art ("CMIP5") historical climate model simulations subject to anthropogenic forcing display an increase in the projection of this fingerprint that is mirrored in multiple observational surface temperature datasets. Both the models and observations suggest this signal has only recently emerged from the background noise of natural variability.

  11. Future projections of extreme precipitation using Advanced Weather Generator (AWE-GEN over Peninsular Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. H. Syafrina


    Full Text Available A stochastic downscaling methodology known as the Advanced Weather Generator, AWE-GEN, has been tested at four stations in Peninsular Malaysia using observations available from 1975 to 2005. The methodology involves a stochastic downscaling procedure based on a Bayesian approach. Climate statistics from a multi-model ensemble of General Circulation Model (GCM outputs were calculated and factors of change were derived to produce the probability distribution functions (PDF. New parameters were obtained to project future climate time series. A multi-model ensemble was used in this study. The projections of extreme precipitation were based on the RCP 6.0 scenario (2081–2100. The model was able to simulate both hourly and 24-h extreme precipitation, as well as wet spell durations quite well for almost all regions. However, the performance of GCM models varies significantly in all regions showing high variability of monthly precipitation for both observed and future periods. The extreme precipitation for both hourly and 24-h seems to increase in future, while extreme of wet spells remain unchanged, up to the return periods of 10–40 years.

  12. Future projections of extreme precipitation using Advanced Weather Generator (AWE-GEN) over Peninsular Malaysia (United States)

    Syafrina, A. H.; Zalina, M. D.; Juneng, L.


    A stochastic downscaling methodology known as the Advanced Weather Generator, AWE-GEN, has been tested at four stations in Peninsular Malaysia using observations available from 1975 to 2005. The methodology involves a stochastic downscaling procedure based on a Bayesian approach. Climate statistics from a multi-model ensemble of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs were calculated and factors of change were derived to produce the probability distribution functions (PDF). New parameters were obtained to project future climate time series. A multi-model ensemble was used in this study. The projections of extreme precipitation were based on the RCP 6.0 scenario (2081-2100). The model was able to simulate both hourly and 24-h extreme precipitation, as well as wet spell durations quite well for almost all regions. However, the performance of GCM models varies significantly in all regions showing high variability of monthly precipitation for both observed and future periods. The extreme precipitation for both hourly and 24-h seems to increase in future, while extreme of wet spells remain unchanged, up to the return periods of 10-40 years.

  13. On the nonlinearity of spatial scales in extreme weather attribution statements (United States)

    Angélil, Oliver; Stone, Daíthí; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah; Alexander, Lisa V.; Wehner, Michael; Shiogama, Hideo; Wolski, Piotr; Ciavarella, Andrew; Christidis, Nikolaos


    In the context of ongoing climate change, extreme weather events are drawing increasing attention from the public and news media. A question often asked is how the likelihood of extremes might have changed by anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions. Answers to the question are strongly influenced by the model used, duration, spatial extent, and geographic location of the event—some of these factors often overlooked. Using output from four global climate models, we provide attribution statements characterised by a change in probability of occurrence due to anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions, for rainfall and temperature extremes occurring at seven discretised spatial scales and three temporal scales. An understanding of the sensitivity of attribution statements to a range of spatial and temporal scales of extremes allows for the scaling of attribution statements, rendering them relevant to other extremes having similar but non-identical characteristics. This is a procedure simple enough to approximate timely estimates of the anthropogenic contribution to the event probability. Furthermore, since real extremes do not have well-defined physical borders, scaling can help quantify uncertainty around attribution results due to uncertainty around the event definition. Results suggest that the sensitivity of attribution statements to spatial scale is similar across models and that the sensitivity of attribution statements to the model used is often greater than the sensitivity to a doubling or halving of the spatial scale of the event. The use of a range of spatial scales allows us to identify a nonlinear relationship between the spatial scale of the event studied and the attribution statement.

  14. Uranium isotope composition of a laterite profile during extreme weathering of basalt in Guangdong, South China (United States)

    Huang, J.; Zhou, Z.; Gong, Y.; Lundstrom, C.; Huang, F.


    Rock weathering and soil formation in the critical zone are important for material cycle from the solid Earth to superficial system. Laterite is a major type of soil in South China forming at hot-humid climate, which has strong effect on the global uranium cycle. Uranium is closely related to the environmental redox condition because U is stable at U(Ⅳ) in anoxic condition and U(Ⅵ) as soluble uranyl ion (UO22+) under oxic circumstance. In order to understand the behavior of U isotopes during crust weathering, here we report uranium isotopic compositions of soil and base rock samples from a laterite profile originated from extreme weathering of basalt in Guangdong, South China. The uranium isotopic data were measured on a Nu Plasma MC-ICP-MS at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign using the double spike method. The δ238U of BCR-1 is -0.29±0.03‰ (relative to the international standard CRM-112A), corresponding to a 238U/235U ratio of 137.911±0.004. Our result of BCR-1 agrees with previous analyses (e.g., -0.28‰ in Weyer et al. 2008) [1]. U contents of the laterite profile decrease from 1.9 ppm to 0.9 ppm with depth, and peak at 160 - 170 cm (2.3 ppm), much higher than the U content of base rocks (~0.5 ppm). In contrary, U/Th of laterites is lower than that of base rock (0.27) except the peak at the depth of 160-170 cm (0.38), indicating significant U loss during weathering. Notably, U isotope compositions of soils show a small variation from -0.38 to -0.28‰, consistent with the base rock within analytical error (0.05‰ to 0.08‰, 2sd). Such small variation can be explained by a "rind effect" (Wang et al., 2015) [2], by which U(Ⅳ) can be completely oxidized to U(VI) layer by layer during basalt weathering by dissolved oxygen. Therefore, our study indicates that U loss during basalt weathering at the hot-humid climate does not change U isotope composition of superficial water system. [1] Weyer S. et al. (2008) Natural fractionation of 238U/235

  15. The Impact of Tarsal Tunnel Syndrome on Cold Sensation in the Pedal Extremities. (United States)

    Kokubo, Rinko; Kim, Kyongsong; Isu, Toyohiko; Morimoto, Daijiro; Iwamoto, Naotaka; Kobayashi, Shiro; Morita, Akio


    Tarsal tunnel syndrome (TTS) is an entrapment neuropathy of the posterior tibial nerve in the tarsal tunnel. It is not known whether vascular or neuropathic factors are implicated in the cause of a cold sensation experienced by patients. Therefore, we studied the cold sensation in the pedal extremities of patients who did or did not undergo TTS surgery. Our study population comprised 20 patients with TTS (38 feet); 1 foot was affected in 2 patients and both feet in 18 patients. We acquired the toe-brachial pressure index to evaluate perfusion of the sole and toe perfusion under 4 conditions: the at-rest position (condition 1); the at-rest position with compression of the foot dorsal artery (condition 2); the Kinoshita foot position (condition 3); and the Kinoshita foot position with foot dorsal artery compression (condition 4). Patients who reported abatement in the cold sensation during surgery underwent intraoperative reocclusion of the tibial artery to check for the return of the cold sensation. The toe-brachial pressure index for conditions 1 and 3 averaged 0.82 ± 0.09 and 0.81 ± 0.11, respectively; for conditions 2 and 4, it averaged 0.70 ± 0.11 and 0.71 ± 0.09, respectively. Among the 16 operated patients, the cold sensation in 7 feet improved intraoperatively; transient reocclusion of the tibial artery did not result in the reappearance of the cold sensation. Our findings suggest that the cold sensation in the feet of our patients with TTS was associated with neuropathic rather than vascular factors. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Mitigation Efforts in Rural Communities after Extreme Weather Events - New Insights for Stakeholders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vesela Radovic


    Full Text Available Global climate changes are undoubtedly course of the increasing frequency of extreme whether events all over the world. Rural communities belong to the “group of victims” which is greatly jeopardized by consequences of the extreme weather events. Having in mind limited capacities for the preparedness, response and recovery after any kind of emergency it is clear that the rural community mostly needs external help. That is the point of this paper: to make new insights about this important issue, and to discuss: “how to provide adequate help in the rural communities and build adequate adaptive and response capacities”. In many countries agriculture and rural tourism are main economic activities in the rural area and its interruption could be the obstacle for implementation of sustainable development. Various stakeholders omit to be aware of this issue. Emergency agencies and many others have to make the comprehensive plan for rural communities (having in mind all its limitations. In the Republic of Serbia rural communities do not have enough capacity for recovery and usually it takes many years after an event. A minimum of an economic recovery standard has to be created for the rural community. It also has to be a specific contingency plan in the future reorganizations of emergency services in Serbia and at the Western Balkan region. It should be one of the priority issues for stakeholders in the near future in disaster risk reduction. Providing equal access to resources to population in the rural community after the extreme weather event has to be the priority task for policy makers and all actors in emergency management.

  17. Weather model performance on extreme rainfall events simulation's over Western Iberian Peninsula (United States)

    Pereira, S. C.; Carvalho, A. C.; Ferreira, J.; Nunes, J. P.; Kaiser, J. J.; Rocha, A.


    This study evaluates the performance of the WRF-ARW numerical weather model in simulating the spatial and temporal patterns of an extreme rainfall period over a complex orographic region in north-central Portugal. The analysis was performed for the December month of 2009, during the Portugal Mainland rainy season. The heavy rainfall to extreme heavy rainfall periods were due to several low surface pressure's systems associated with frontal surfaces. The total amount of precipitation for December exceeded, in average, the climatological mean for the 1971-2000 time period in +89 mm, varying from 190 mm (south part of the country) to 1175 mm (north part of the country). Three model runs were conducted to assess possible improvements in model performance: (1) the WRF-ARW is forced with the initial fields from a global domain model (RunRef); (2) data assimilation for a specific location (RunObsN) is included; (3) nudging is used to adjust the analysis field (RunGridN). Model performance was evaluated against an observed hourly precipitation dataset of 15 rainfall stations using several statistical parameters. The WRF-ARW model reproduced well the temporal rainfall patterns but tended to overestimate precipitation amounts. The RunGridN simulation provided the best results but model performance of the other two runs was good too, so that the selected extreme rainfall episode was successfully reproduced.

  18. Cold fronts in the Colombian Caribbean Sea and their relationship to extreme wave events (United States)

    Ortiz-Royero, J. C.; Otero, L. J.; Restrepo, J. C.; Ruiz, J.; Cadena, M.


    Extreme ocean waves in the Caribbean Sea are commonly related to the effects of storms and hurricanes during the months of June through November. The collapse of 200 m of the Puerto Colombia pier in March 2009 revealed the effects of meteorological phenomena other than storms and hurricanes that may be influencing the extreme wave regime in the Colombian Caribbean. The marked seasonality of these atmospheric fronts was established by analyzing the meteorological-marine reports of the Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales of Colombia (IDEAM, based on its initials in Spanish) and the Centro de Investigación en Oceanografía y Meteorología of Colombia (CIOH, based on its initials in Spanish) during the last 16 yr. The highest number of cold fronts was observed during the months of January, February, and March, with 6 fronts occurring per year. An annual trend was observed and the highest number of fronts occurred in 2010 (20 in total); moreover, an annual strong relationship between the maximum average wave values and the cold fronts in the central zone of the Colombian Caribbean during the first three months of the year was established. In addition, the maximum values of the significant height produced by the passage of cold fronts during the last 16 yr were identified. Although the Colombian Caribbean has been affected by storms and hurricanes in the past, this research allows us to conclude that there is a strong relationship between cold fronts and the largest waves in the Colombian Caribbean during the last 16 yr, which have caused damage to coastal infrastructure. We verified that the passage of a cold front corresponded to the most significant extreme wave event of the last two decades in the Colombian Caribbean, which caused the structural collapse of the Puerto Colombia pier, located near the city of Barranquilla, between 5 and 10 March 2009. This information is invaluable when evaluating average and extreme wave regimes for the

  19. Links between Synoptic Weather Types and Extreme Wet Events in the Arabian Peninsula (1960-2100)

    KAUST Repository

    El Kenawy, Ahmed M.; McCabe, Matthew; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Raj, Jerry


    In this work, an automated version of the Lamb weather type classification scheme was applied to classify daily weather types in the Arabian Peninsula. The output catalogue included ten basic weather types, which describe the direction and vorticity

  20. Future weather types and their influence on mean and extreme climate indices for precipitation and temperature in Central Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulf Riediger


    Full Text Available In Central Europe, the spatial and temporal distributions of precipitation and temperature are determined by the occurrence of major weather types. In this paper, we examine climate indices (i.e. mean values or hot, cold, wet and dry days for different weather types in a recent (1971–2000 and future climate (2070–2099. The weather types are classified objectively for the control run and for the A1B scenario with an ensemble of eight global climate simulations (GCM to be compared with different reanalyses. To derive climate indices, the high-resolution, regionalized reference dataset HYRAS and an ensemble of nine regional climate simulations (RCM are used. Firstly, the reliability of simulated weather patterns and their climate indices are tested in the control period. The reanalyses circulation climatology can be reproduced well by the GCM ensemble mean. For temperature and precipitation, each climate index is characterized and evaluated in terms of defined weather patterns. The comparison of HYRAS and RCM data show reliable mean temperature values with differences between weather classes by +2$+2$ to -6$-6$ °C during winter (13 to 19 °C in summer. The analysis of observed and simulated precipitation reveal that mean winter precipitation is significantly influenced by the direction of air flow, while in summer, mesoscale atmospheric patterns of cyclonic rotation play a larger role. Secondly, the analysis of potential future changes simulated by the RCM ensemble were able to demonstrate that weather type changes, superior climate trends (such as mean warming and their interaction lead to major changes for precipitation and temperature in Central Europe. While temperature differences between cold and warm weather types are nearly stable over time, the ensemble temperature changes (with a range of +2$+2$ to +4$+4$ °C reinforce warm/hot conditions in the future winter and summer. Milder, wetter winters can be explained by an increased

  1. A twenty-first century California observing network for monitoring extreme weather events (United States)

    White, A.B.; Anderson, M.L.; Dettinger, M.D.; Ralph, F.M.; Hinojosa, A.; Cayan, D.R.; Hartman, R.K.; Reynolds, D.W.; Johnson, L.E.; Schneider, T.L.; Cifelli, R.; Toth, Z.; Gutman, S.I.; King, C.W.; Gehrke, F.; Johnston, P.E.; Walls, C.; Mann, Dorte; Gottas, D.J.; Coleman, T.


    During Northern Hemisphere winters, the West Coast of North America is battered by extratropical storms. The impact of these storms is of paramount concern to California, where aging water supply and flood protection infrastructures are challenged by increased standards for urban flood protection, an unusually variable weather regime, and projections of climate change. Additionally, there are inherent conflicts between releasing water to provide flood protection and storing water to meet requirements for water supply, water quality, hydropower generation, water temperature and flow for at-risk species, and recreation. In order to improve reservoir management and meet the increasing demands on water, improved forecasts of precipitation, especially during extreme events, is required. Here we describe how California is addressing their most important and costliest environmental issue – water management – in part, by installing a state-of-the-art observing system to better track the area’s most severe wintertime storms.

  2. EU-INTACT-case studies: Impact of extreme weather on critical Infrastructure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    van Ruiten Kees


    One of the case studies is located in the Netherlands and deals with the port of Rotterdam. The situation in Rotterdam is representative for many other main ports in Europe. These ports are all situated in a delta area, near the sea and rivers or canals. Also, these ports are close to urban areas and industrial complexes. Finally, these ports have a multimodal transport infrastructure to and from its hinterland, which is also vulnerable for extreme weather events. The case study is not only significant for the development of methods and tools, but also of direct interest for the region itself. The combination of the National Water safety policy and the best practices from the INTACT cases offer challenges to create better adaptation options and coping capacity to these relatively unforeseen and unexpected impacts based on climate change scenario’s and socio-economic megatrends.

  3. Web processing service for climate impact and extreme weather event analyses. Flyingpigeon (Version 1.0) (United States)

    Hempelmann, Nils; Ehbrecht, Carsten; Alvarez-Castro, Carmen; Brockmann, Patrick; Falk, Wolfgang; Hoffmann, Jörg; Kindermann, Stephan; Koziol, Ben; Nangini, Cathy; Radanovics, Sabine; Vautard, Robert; Yiou, Pascal


    Analyses of extreme weather events and their impacts often requires big data processing of ensembles of climate model simulations. Researchers generally proceed by downloading the data from the providers and processing the data files ;at home; with their own analysis processes. However, the growing amount of available climate model and observation data makes this procedure quite awkward. In addition, data processing knowledge is kept local, instead of being consolidated into a common resource of reusable code. These drawbacks can be mitigated by using a web processing service (WPS). A WPS hosts services such as data analysis processes that are accessible over the web, and can be installed close to the data archives. We developed a WPS named 'flyingpigeon' that communicates over an HTTP network protocol based on standards defined by the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC), to be used by climatologists and impact modelers as a tool for analyzing large datasets remotely. Here, we present the current processes we developed in flyingpigeon relating to commonly-used processes (preprocessing steps, spatial subsets at continent, country or region level, and climate indices) as well as methods for specific climate data analysis (weather regimes, analogues of circulation, segetal flora distribution, and species distribution models). We also developed a novel, browser-based interactive data visualization for circulation analogues, illustrating the flexibility of WPS in designing custom outputs. Bringing the software to the data instead of transferring the data to the code is becoming increasingly necessary, especially with the upcoming massive climate datasets.

  4. An end-to-end assessment of extreme weather impacts on food security (United States)

    Chavez, Erik; Conway, Gordon; Ghil, Michael; Sadler, Marc


    Both governments and the private sector urgently require better estimates of the likely incidence of extreme weather events, their impacts on food crop production and the potential consequent social and economic losses. Current assessments of climate change impacts on agriculture mostly focus on average crop yield vulnerability to climate and adaptation scenarios. Also, although new-generation climate models have improved and there has been an exponential increase in available data, the uncertainties in their projections over years and decades, and at regional and local scale, have not decreased. We need to understand and quantify the non-stationary, annual and decadal climate impacts using simple and communicable risk metrics that will help public and private stakeholders manage the hazards to food security. Here we present an `end-to-end’ methodological construct based on weather indices and machine learning that integrates current understanding of the various interacting systems of climate, crops and the economy to determine short- to long-term risk estimates of crop production loss, in different climate and adaptation scenarios. For provinces north and south of the Yangtze River in China, we have found that risk profiles for crop yields that translate climate into economic variability follow marked regional patterns, shaped by drivers of continental-scale climate. We conclude that to be cost-effective, region-specific policies have to be tailored to optimally combine different categories of risk management instruments.

  5. Changing Weather Extremes Call for Early Warning of Potential for Catastrophic Fire (United States)

    Boer, Matthias M.; Nolan, Rachael H.; Resco De Dios, Víctor; Clarke, Hamish; Price, Owen F.; Bradstock, Ross A.


    Changing frequencies of extreme weather events and shifting fire seasons call for enhanced capability to forecast where and when forested landscapes switch from a nonflammable (i.e., wet fuel) state to the highly flammable (i.e., dry fuel) state required for catastrophic forest fires. Current forest fire danger indices used in Europe, North America, and Australia rate potential fire behavior by combining numerical indices of fuel moisture content, potential rate of fire spread, and fire intensity. These numerical rating systems lack the physical basis required to reliably quantify forest flammability outside the environments of their development or under novel climate conditions. Here, we argue that exceedance of critical forest flammability thresholds is a prerequisite for major forest fires and therefore early warning systems should be based on a reliable prediction of fuel moisture content plus a regionally calibrated model of how forest fire activity responds to variation in fuel moisture content. We demonstrate the potential of this approach through a case study in Portugal. We use a physically based fuel moisture model with historical weather and fire records to identify critical fuel moisture thresholds for forest fire activity and then show that the catastrophic June 2017 forest fires in central Portugal erupted shortly after fuels in the region dried out to historically unprecedented levels.

  6. Assessing communication as one of the drivers of urban resilience to weather extremes. (United States)

    Vicari, Rosa; Schertzer, Daniel


    The quality of science and technology communication has become more challenging due to the fact that access to information has hugely increased in terms of variety and quantity. This is a consequence of different factors, among others the development of public relations by research institutes and the pervasive role of digital media (Bucchi 2013; Trench 2008). A key question is how can we objectively assess science and technology communication? Relatively few studies have been dedicated to the definition of pertinent indicators and standards (Neresini and Bucchi 2011). This research aims to understand how communication strategies, addressed to the general public, can optimise the impact of research findings in hydrology for resilient cities and how this can be assessed. Indeed urban resilience to extreme weather events relies both on engineering solutions and increased awareness of urban communities as it was highlighted by the FP7 SMARTesT project and the experiences carried out in the framework of TOMACS (Tokyo Metropolitan Area Convective Studies for Resilient Cities) and CASA (Engineering Research Center for Collaborative Adaptative Sensing of the Atmosphere, supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation). Communication assessment should be included in an alternative approach to evaluate urban resilience to weather extremes. Various qualitative and quantitative methods to monitor communication exist. According to this study, resilience indicators shouldn't only consider communication infrastructures but should also assess communication processes and their interactions with other resilience drivers; furthermore quantitative variables are considered as particularly relevant. Last, but not least, interesting inputs are provided by those case studies that exploit resilience assessment campaigns as an opportunity to practice participatory communication. This research is being led in the framework of the Chair Hydrology for Resilient Cities, co-founded by Veolia

  7. Extreme weather impacts on tropical mangrove forests in the Eastern Brazil Marine Ecoregion. (United States)

    Servino, Ricardo Nogueira; Gomes, Luiz Eduardo de Oliveira; Bernardino, Angelo Fraga


    Extreme weather events are likely to become more frequent in the 21st century bringing significant impacts to coastal ecosystems. However, the capacity to detect and measure those impacts are still limited, with effects largely unstudied. In June 2016, a hailstorm with wind gusts of over 100 km·h -1 caused an unprecedented mangrove dieback on Eastern Brazil. To quantify the scale of impact and short-term recovery of mangroves (15-mo), we used satellite imagery and field sampling to evaluate changes in forest structure in control and impacted areas after the hailstorm. Satellite imagery revealed mangrove dieback in over 500 ha, corresponding to 29.3% of the total forest area suddenly impacted after the hailstorm. Fifteen months after the hailstorm, some impacted areas show an initial recovery, while others continued to degrade. The El Niño years of 2014-2016 created mild drought conditions in Eastern Brazil. As observed in wetlands of semi-arid regions during the same period, mangrove recovery may have been impaired by continued physiological stress and climate change effects. Economic losses in the study site from typical mangrove ecosystem services including food provision, climate regulation, raw materials and nurseries are estimated to at least US$ 792,624 yr -1 . This is the first evidence of an extreme weather impact on mangroves in Brazil that typically provide unique ecological and economic subsistence to coastal populations. Our results reveal that there is a pressing need for long-term monitoring and climate change adaptation actions for coastal wetlands in Brazil, and to provide broad estimates of ecosystem values associated with these ecosystems given many areas are already experiencing chronic stress from local impacts, drought and high temperatures. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Anomalous, extreme weather disrupts obligate seed dispersal mutualism: snow in a subtropical forest ecosystem. (United States)

    Zhou, Youbing; Newman, Chris; Chen, Jin; Xie, Zongqiang; Macdonald, David W


    Ongoing global climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events, impacting population dynamics and community structure. There is, however, a critical lack of case studies considering how climatic perturbations affect biotic interactions. Here, we document how an obligate seed dispersal mutualism was disrupted by a temporally anomalous and meteorologically extreme interlude of unseasonably frigid weather, with accompanying snowstorms, in subtropical China, during January-February 2008. Based on the analysis of 5892 fecal samples (representing six mammalian seed dispersers), this event caused a substantial disruption to the relative seed dispersal function for the raisin tree Hovenia dulcis from prestorm 6.29 (2006) and 11.47 (2007), down to 0.35 during the storm (2008). Crucially, this was due to impacts on mammalian seed dispersers and not due to a paucity of fruit, where 4.63 fruit per branch were available in January 2008, vs. 3.73 in 2006 and 3.58 in 2007. An induced dietary shift occurred among omnivorous carnivores during this event, from the consumption fruit to small mammals and birds, reducing their role in seed dispersal substantially. Induced range shift extinguished the functionality of herbivorous mammals completely, however, seed dispersal function was compensated in part by three omnivorous carnivores during poststorm years, and thus while the mutualism remained intact it was enacted by a narrower assemblage of species, rendering the system more vulnerable to extrinsic perturbations. The storm's extended effects also had anthropogenic corollaries - migrating ungulates becoming exposed to heightened levels of illegal hunting - causing long-term modification to the seed dispersal community and mutualism dynamics. Furthermore, degraded forests proved especially vulnerable to the storm's effects. Considering increasing climate variability and anthropogenic disturbance, the impacts of such massive, aberrant

  9. An impact of deforestation by extreme weather events on Sphagnum peatland ecosystem (United States)

    Slowinski, M. M.; Łuców, D.; Kołaczek, P.; Tjallingii, R.; Lane, C. S.; Slowinska, S.; Tyszkowski, S.; Łokas, E.; Theuerkauf, M.; Brauer, A.; Lamentowicz, M.


    An increase in extreme weather phenomena has been observed over the last decades as a result of global climate warming. Terrestrial ecosystems are influenced by different types of disturbances such as e.g. deforestation, land-use, fragmentation, fire, floods or storms. Disturbance triggers may be natural or anthropogenic, but usually we observe negative feedback loops and interconnected causal factors. Here we investigate the effects of a tornado event on the peatland ecosystem of the Tuchola Pinewoods, Northern Poland. Deforestation by tornado events can cause severe perturbations of the hydrology and erosion that, in turn, affects adjacent lakes and peatlands. Martwe peatland provide an exceptional opportunity to study the impact of such extreme events, as it was struck by a tornado in 2012. Our research is focused on lake-peatland ecosystems that were directly affected by this tornado, and we consider the general transformation of the vegetation (mainly forests) over the last 150 years. Extensive clearing of the forest occurred in the nineteenth century due to human activity, and we compare this with the impact of the 2012 tornado. Accurate reconstructions will rely on a broad range of palaeoecological techniques such as pollen, macro-remains and testate amoebae, but also on geochemistry, i.e. μXRF scanning. The chronology of the records is based on 210Pb and radiocarbon dating and will incorporate correlations using (crypto)tephra markers of the Eyjafjöll (2010) and Askja (1875) eruptions. We expect to observe that disturbance (tornado-induced deforestation) affects the short-term changes in peatland productivity and biodiversity, through a cascading "top-down" effect. This research addresses the emerging issue of the impact of extreme phenomena and more general climate changes on peatland ecosystems, which will potentially help to inform adaptations to the environmental consequences of extreme events in the future. This project is funded by the Polish

  10. Social Experiments in Tokyo Metropolitan Area Convection Study for Extreme Weather Resilient Cities(TOMACS) (United States)

    Tsuyoshi, Nakatani; Nakamura, Isao; MIsumi, Ryohei; Shoji, Yoshinori


    Introduction TOMACS research project has been started since 2010 July in order to develop the elementary technologies which are required for the adaptation of societies to future global warming impacts that cannot be avoided by the reduction of greenhouse gases. In collaboration with related government institutions, local governments, private companies, and residents, more than 25 organizations and over 100 people are participated. TOMACS consists of the following three research themes: Theme 1: Studies on extreme weather with dense meteorological observations Theme 2: Development of the extreme weather early detection and prediction system Theme 3: Social experiments on extreme weather resilient cities Theme 1 aims to understand the initiation, development, and dissipation processes of convective precipitation in order to clarify the mechanism of localized heavy rainfall which are potential causes of flooding and landslides. Theme 2 aims to establish the monitoring and prediction system of extreme phenomena which can process real-time data from dense meteorological observation networks, advanced X-band radar network systems and predict localized heavy rainfalls and strong winds. Through social experiments, theme 3 aims to establish a method to use information obtained by the monitoring system of extreme phenomena to disaster prevention operations in order to prevent disasters and reduce damage. Social Experiments Toyo University is the core university for the social experiments accomplishment. And following organizations are participating in this research theme: NIED, the Tokyo Metropolitan Research Institute for Environmental Protection (TMRIEP), University of Tokyo, Tokyo Fire Department (TFD), Edogawa Ward in Tokyo, Yokohama City, Fujisawa City and Minamiashigara City in Kanagawa, East Japan Railway Company, Central Japan Railway Company, Obayashi Corporation, and Certified and Accredited Meteorologists of Japan(CAMJ). The social experiments have carried out

  11. Warfighter Physiological Status Monitoring (WPSM): Energy Balance and Thermal Status During a 10-Day Cold Weather U.S. Marine Corps Infantry Officer Course Field Exercise

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hoyt, Reed


    ...) during a 10-day field exercise (FEX) at Quantico, VA. Question: Does intense physical activity, limited sleep, and restricted rations, combined with cold/damp weather, result in excessively negative energy balance and hypothermia? Methods...

  12. The CAULDRON game: Helping decision makers understand extreme weather event attribution (United States)

    Walton, P.; Otto, F. E. L.


    There is a recognition from academics and stakeholders that climate science has a fundamental role to play in the decision making process, but too frequently there is still uncertainty about what, when, how and why to use it. Stakeholders suggest that it is because the science is presented in an inaccessible manner, while academics suggest it is because the stakeholders do not have the scientific knowledge to understand and apply the science appropriately. What is apparent is that stakeholders need support, and that there is an onus on academia to provide it. This support is even more important with recent developments in climate science, such as extreme weather event attribution. We are already seeing the impacts of extreme weather events around the world causing lost of life and damage to property and infrastructure with current research suggesting that these events could become more frequent and more intense. If this is to be the case then a better understanding of the science will be vital in developing robust adaptation and business planning. The use of games, role playing and simulations to aid learning has long been understood in education but less so as a tool to support stakeholder understanding of climate science. Providing a 'safe' space where participants can actively engage with concepts, ideas and often emotions, can lead to deep understanding that is not possible through more passive mechanisms such as papers and web sites. This paper reports on a game that was developed through a collaboration led by the Red Cross/Red Crescent, University of Oxford and University of Reading to help stakeholders understand the role of weather event attribution in the decision making process. The game has already been played successfully at a number of high profile events including COP 19 and the African Climate Conference. It has also been used with students as part of a postgraduate environmental management course. As well as describing the design principles of the

  13. Decision Making and Risk Evaluation Frameworks for Extreme Space Weather Events (United States)

    Uritskaya, O.; Robinson, R. M.; Pulkkinen, A. A.


    Extreme Space Weather events (ESWE) are in the spotlight nowadays because they can produce a significant impact not only due to their intensity and broad geographical scope, but also because of the widespread levels and the multiple sectors of the economy that could be involved. In the task of evaluation of the ESWE consequences, the most problematic and vulnerable aspect is the determination and calculation of the probability of statistically infrequent events and the subsequent assessment of the economic risks. In this work, we conduct a detailed analysis of the available frameworks of the general Decision-Making Theory in the presence of uncertainty, in the context of their applicability for the numerical estimation of the risks and losses associated with ESWE. The results of our study demonstrate that, unlike the Multiple-criteria decision analysis or Minimax approach to modeling of the possible scenarios for the ESWE effects, which prevail in the literature, the most suitable concept is the Games Against Nature (GAN). It enables an evaluation of every economically relevant aspect of space weather conditions and obtain more detailed results. Choosing the appropriate methods for solving GAN models, i.e. determining the most optimal strategy with a given level of uncertainty, requires estimating the conditional probabilities of Space Weather events for each outcome of possible scenarios of this natural disaster. Due to the specifics of complex natural and economic systems, with which we are dealing in this case, this problem remains unsolved, mainly because of inevitable loss of information at every stage of the decision-making process. The analysis is illustrated by deregulated electricity markets of the USA and Canada, whose power grid systems are known to be perceptive to ESWE. The GAN model is more appropriate in identifying potential risks in economic systems. The proposed approach, when applied to the existing database of Space Weather observations and

  14. Future frequencies of extreme weather events in the National Wildlife Refuges of the conterminous U.S. (United States)

    Martinuzzi, Sebastian; Allstadt, Andrew J.; Bateman, Brooke L.; Heglund, Patricia J.; Pidgeon, Anna M.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Vavrus, Stephen J.; Radeloff, Volker C.


    Climate change is a major challenge for managers of protected areas world-wide, and managers need information about future climate conditions within protected areas. Prior studies of climate change effects in protected areas have largely focused on average climatic conditions. However, extreme weather may have stronger effects on wildlife populations and habitats than changes in averages. Our goal was to quantify future changes in the frequency of extreme heat, drought, and false springs, during the avian breeding season, in 415 National Wildlife Refuges in the conterminous United States. We analyzed spatially detailed data on extreme weather frequencies during the historical period (1950–2005) and under different scenarios of future climate change by mid- and late-21st century. We found that all wildlife refuges will likely experience substantial changes in the frequencies of extreme weather, but the types of projected changes differed among refuges. Extreme heat is projected to increase dramatically in all wildlife refuges, whereas changes in droughts and false springs are projected to increase or decrease on a regional basis. Half of all wildlife refuges are projected to see increases in frequency (> 20% higher than the current rate) in at least two types of weather extremes by mid-century. Wildlife refuges in the Southwest and Pacific Southwest are projected to exhibit the fastest rates of change, and may deserve extra attention. Climate change adaptation strategies in protected areas, such as the U.S. wildlife refuges, may need to seriously consider future changes in extreme weather, including the considerable spatial variation of these changes.

  15. The effect of ethnicity on the vascular responses to cold exposure of the extremities


    Maley, Matthew J.; Eglin, Clare M.; House, James R.; Tipton, Michael J.


    Purpose Cold injuries are more prevalent in individuals of African descent (AFD). Therefore, we investigated the effect of extremity cooling on skin blood flow (SkBF) and temperature (T sk) between ethnic groups. Methods Thirty males [10 Caucasian (CAU), 10 Asian (ASN), 10 AFD] undertook three tests in 30 °C air whilst digit T sk and SkBF were measured: (i) vasomotor threshold (VT) test—arm immersed in 35 °C water progressively cooled to 10 °C and rewarmed to 35 °C to identify vasoconstrictio...

  16. Water-Borne Diseases and Extreme Weather Events in Cambodia: Review of Impacts and Implications of Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grace I. Davies


    Full Text Available Cambodia is prone to extreme weather events, especially floods, droughts and typhoons. Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of such events. The Cambodian population is highly vulnerable to the impacts of these events due to poverty; malnutrition; agricultural dependence; settlements in flood-prone areas, and public health, governance and technological limitations. Yet little is known about the health impacts of extreme weather events in Cambodia. Given the extremely low adaptive capacity of the population, this is a crucial knowledge gap. A literature review of the health impacts of floods, droughts and typhoons in Cambodia was conducted, with regional and global information reviewed where Cambodia-specific literature was lacking. Water-borne diseases are of particular concern in Cambodia, in the face of extreme weather events and climate change, due to, inter alia, a high pre-existing burden of diseases such as diarrhoeal illness and a lack of improved sanitation infrastructure in rural areas. A time-series analysis under quasi-Poisson distribution was used to evaluate the association between floods and diarrhoeal disease incidence in Cambodian children between 2001 and 2012 in 16 Cambodian provinces. Floods were significantly associated with increased diarrhoeal disease in two provinces, while the analysis conducted suggested a possible protective effect from toilets and piped water. Addressing the specific, local pre-existing vulnerabilities is vital to promoting population health resilience and strengthening adaptive capacity to extreme weather events and climate change in Cambodia.

  17. Water-borne diseases and extreme weather events in Cambodia: review of impacts and implications of climate change. (United States)

    Davies, Grace I; McIver, Lachlan; Kim, Yoonhee; Hashizume, Masahiro; Iddings, Steven; Chan, Vibol


    Cambodia is prone to extreme weather events, especially floods, droughts and typhoons. Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of such events. The Cambodian population is highly vulnerable to the impacts of these events due to poverty; malnutrition; agricultural dependence; settlements in flood-prone areas, and public health, governance and technological limitations. Yet little is known about the health impacts of extreme weather events in Cambodia. Given the extremely low adaptive capacity of the population, this is a crucial knowledge gap. A literature review of the health impacts of floods, droughts and typhoons in Cambodia was conducted, with regional and global information reviewed where Cambodia-specific literature was lacking. Water-borne diseases are of particular concern in Cambodia, in the face of extreme weather events and climate change, due to, inter alia, a high pre-existing burden of diseases such as diarrhoeal illness and a lack of improved sanitation infrastructure in rural areas. A time-series analysis under quasi-Poisson distribution was used to evaluate the association between floods and diarrhoeal disease incidence in Cambodian children between 2001 and 2012 in 16 Cambodian provinces. Floods were significantly associated with increased diarrhoeal disease in two provinces, while the analysis conducted suggested a possible protective effect from toilets and piped water. Addressing the specific, local pre-existing vulnerabilities is vital to promoting population health resilience and strengthening adaptive capacity to extreme weather events and climate change in Cambodia.

  18. Synergistic effects of an extreme weather event and habitat fragmentation on a specialised insect herbivore. (United States)

    Piessens, Katrien; Adriaens, Dries; Jacquemyn, Hans; Honnay, Olivier


    Habitat fragmentation is considered to be one of the main causes of population decline and species extinction worldwide. Furthermore, habitat fragmentation can decrease the ability of populations to resist and to recover from environmental disturbances such as extreme weather events, which are expected to occur at an increasing rate as a result of climate change. In this study, we investigated how calcareous grassland fragmentation affected the impact of the climatically extreme summer of 2003 on egg deposition rates, population size variation and survival of the blue butterfly Cupido minimus, a specialist herbivore of Anthyllis vulneraria. Immediately after the 2003 summer heat wave, populations of the host plant declined in size; this was paralleled with decreases in population size of the herbivore and altered egg deposition rates. In 2006 at the end of the monitoring period, however, most A. vulneraria populations had recovered and only one population went extinct. In contrast, several butterfly populations had gone extinct between 2003 and 2006. Extinction probability was significantly related to initial population size, with small populations having a higher risk of extinction than large populations. These results support the prediction that species of higher trophic levels are more susceptible to extinction due to habitat fragmentation and severe disturbances.

  19. The effect of ethnicity on the vascular responses to cold exposure of the extremities. (United States)

    Maley, Matthew J; Eglin, Clare M; House, James R; Tipton, Michael J


    Cold injuries are more prevalent in individuals of African descent (AFD). Therefore, we investigated the effect of extremity cooling on skin blood flow (SkBF) and temperature (T sk) between ethnic groups. Thirty males [10 Caucasian (CAU), 10 Asian (ASN), 10 AFD] undertook three tests in 30 °C air whilst digit T sk and SkBF were measured: (i) vasomotor threshold (VT) test--arm immersed in 35 °C water progressively cooled to 10 °C and rewarmed to 35 °C to identify vasoconstriction and vasodilatation; (ii) cold-induced vasodilatation (CIVD) test--hand immersed in 8 °C water for 30 min followed by spontaneous warming; (iii) cold sensitivity (CS) test--foot immersed in 15 °C water for 2 min followed by spontaneous warming. Cold sensory thresholds of the forearm and finger were also assessed. In the VT test, vasoconstriction and vasodilatation occurred at a warmer finger T sk in AFD during cooling [21.2 (4.4) vs. 17.0 (3.1) °C, P = 0.034] and warming [22.0 (7.9) vs. 12.1 (4.1) °C, P = 0.002] compared with CAU. In the CIVD test, average SkBF during immersion was greater in CAU [42 (24) %] than ASN [25 (8) %, P = 0.036] and AFD [24 (13) %, P = 0.023]. Following immersion, SkBF was higher and rewarming faster in CAU [3.2 (0.4) °C min(-1)] compared with AFD [2.5 (0.7) °C min(-1), P = 0.037], but neither group differed from ASN [3.0 (0.6) °C min(-1)]. Responses to the CS test and cold sensory thresholds were similar between groups. AFD experienced a more intense protracted finger vasoconstriction than CAU during hand immersion, whilst ASN experienced an intermediate response. This greater sensitivity to cold may explain why AFD are more susceptible to cold injuries.

  20. The potential impacts of climate variability and change on health impacts of extreme weather events in the United States. (United States)

    Greenough, G; McGeehin, M; Bernard, S M; Trtanj, J; Riad, J; Engelberg, D


    Extreme weather events such as precipitation extremes and severe storms cause hundreds of deaths and injuries annually in the United States. Climate change may alter the frequency, timing, intensity, and duration of these events. Increases in heavy precipitation have occurred over the past century. Future climate scenarios show likely increases in the frequency of extreme precipitation events, including precipitation during hurricanes, raising the risk of floods. Frequencies of tornadoes and hurricanes cannot reliably be projected. Injury and death are the direct health impacts most often associated with natural disasters. Secondary effects, mediated by changes in ecologic systems and public health infrastructure, also occur. The health impacts of extreme weather events hinge on the vulnerabilities and recovery capacities of the natural environment and the local population. Relevant variables include building codes, warning systems, disaster policies, evacuation plans, and relief efforts. There are many federal, state, and local government agencies and nongovernmental organizations involved in planning for and responding to natural disasters in the United States. Future research on health impacts of extreme weather events should focus on improving climate models to project any trends in regional extreme events and as a result improve public health preparedness and mitigation. Epidemiologic studies of health effects beyond the direct impacts of disaster will provide a more accurate measure of the full health impacts and will assist in planning and resource allocation.

  1. Exploring the Intersection of Beliefs toward Outdoor Play and Cold Weather among Northeast Minnesota's Formal Education and Non-Formal EE Communities (United States)

    Hughes, Amy Christine; Zak, Kevin; Ernst, Julie; Meyer, Rebecca


    In a notoriously cold-seasoned region, this paper explored how our formal education and non-formal environmental education (EE) gatekeepers of Northeastern Minnesota regard the importance of outdoor play and cold weather for young students. This research study explored the relationship between participant gatekeepers' beliefs of the benefits…

  2. Communicating and managing change during extreme weather events: promising practices for responding to urgent and emergent climate threats. (United States)

    Tinker, Tim L


    Large-scale weather events in the USA such as hurricanes Sandy, Isaac and Katrina challenge traditional approaches to change communication and management (CCM) before during and after crises. A major challenge (as well as opportunity) is addressing change from the 'whole-community' perspective affecting a spectrum of people, policies, processes, behaviours and outcomes. When CCM is used effectively, one of its fundamental advantages is creating a sense of urgency. This paper looks at optimising communication during extreme weather events, engaging stakeholders, harnessing the power of social media and change, and correlating organisational and individual behaviours and actions. The strategic blend of change management and crisis communication strategies and tactics in CCM is a central feature in the response to the full range of extreme weather scenarios.

  3. Spatial analysis and modeling to assess and map current vulnerability to extreme weather events in the Grijalva - Usumacinta watershed, Mexico

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopez L, D


    One of the major concerns over a potential change in climate is that it will cause an increase in extreme weather events. In Mexico, the exposure factors as well as the vulnerability to the extreme weather events have increased during the last three or four decades. In this study spatial analysis and modeling were used to assess and map settlement and crop systems vulnerability to extreme weather events in the Grijalva - Usumacinta watershed. Sensitivity and coping adaptive capacity maps were constructed using decision models; these maps were then combined to produce vulnerability maps. The most vulnerable area in terms of both settlement and crop systems is the highlands, where the sensitivity is high and the adaptive capacity is low. In lowlands, despite the very high sensitivity, the higher adaptive capacity produces only moderate vulnerability. I conclude that spatial analysis and modeling are powerful tools to assess and map vulnerability. These preliminary results can guide the formulation of adaptation policies to an increasing risk of extreme weather events.

  4. Spatial analysis and modeling to assess and map current vulnerability to extreme weather events in the Grijalva - Usumacinta watershed, Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lopez L, D, E-mail: [Centro de Investigacion en GeografIa y Geomatica, Ing. Jorge L. Tamayo A.C., Contoy 137, col. Lomas de Padierna, del Tlalpan, Maxico D.F (Mexico)


    One of the major concerns over a potential change in climate is that it will cause an increase in extreme weather events. In Mexico, the exposure factors as well as the vulnerability to the extreme weather events have increased during the last three or four decades. In this study spatial analysis and modeling were used to assess and map settlement and crop systems vulnerability to extreme weather events in the Grijalva - Usumacinta watershed. Sensitivity and coping adaptive capacity maps were constructed using decision models; these maps were then combined to produce vulnerability maps. The most vulnerable area in terms of both settlement and crop systems is the highlands, where the sensitivity is high and the adaptive capacity is low. In lowlands, despite the very high sensitivity, the higher adaptive capacity produces only moderate vulnerability. I conclude that spatial analysis and modeling are powerful tools to assess and map vulnerability. These preliminary results can guide the formulation of adaptation policies to an increasing risk of extreme weather events.

  5. Evaluation of a variable speed limit system for wet and extreme weather conditions : phase 1 report. (United States)


    Weather presents considerable challenges to the highway system, both in terms of safety and operations. From a safety standpoint, weather (i.e. precipitation in the form of rain, snow or ice) reduces pavement friction, thus increasing the potential f...

  6. Basalt Weathering in a Cold and Icy Climate: Three Sisters, Oregon as an Analog for Early Mars (United States)

    Rampe, E. B.; Horgan, B.; Smith, R. J.; Scudder, N. A.; Rutledge, A. M.; Bamber, E.; Morris, R. V.


    There is abundant evidence for liquid water on early Mars, but the debate remains whether early Mars was warm and wet or cold and icy with punctuated periods of melting. To further investigate the hypothesis of a cold and icy early Mars, we collected rocks and sediments from the Collier and Diller glacial valleys in the Three Sisters volcanic complex in Oregon. We analyzed rocks and sediments with X-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning and transmission electron microscopies with energy dispersive spectroscopy (SEM, TEM, EDS), and visible, short-wave infrared (VSWIR) and thermal-IR (TIR) spectroscopies to characterize chemical weathering and sediment transport through the valleys. Here, we focus on the composition and mineralogy of the weathering products and how they compare to those identified on the martian surface. Phyllosilicates (smectite), zeolites, and poorly crystalline phases were discovered in pro- and supra-glacial sediments, whereas Si-rich regelation films were found on hand samples and boulders in the proglacial valleys. Most phyllosilicates and zeolites are likely detrital, originating from hydrothermally altered units on North Sister. TEM-EDS analyses of the flour samples demonstrate a variety of poorly crystalline (i.e., no long-range crystallographic order) phases: iron oxides, devitrified volcanic glass, and Fe-Si-Al phases. The CheMin XRD on the Curiosity rover in Gale crater has identified significant amounts of X-ray amorphous materials in all samples measured to date. The amorphous component is likely a combination of silicates, iron oxides, and sulfates. Although we have not yet observed amorphous sulfate in the samples from Three Sisters, the variety of poorly crystalline weathering products found at this site is consistent with the variable composition of the X-ray amorphous component identified by CheMin. We suggest that these amorphous phases on Mars could have formed in a similarly cold and icy environment.

  7. Role of Acclimatization in Weather-Related Human Mortality During the Transition Seasons of Autumn and Spring in a Thermally Extreme Mid-Latitude Continental Climate (United States)

    de Freitas, Christopher R.; Grigorieva, Elena A.


    Human mortality is closely related to natural climate-determined levels of thermal environmental stress and the resulting thermophysiological strain. Most climate-mortality research has focused on seasonal extremes during winter and summer when mortality is the highest, while relatively little attention has been paid to mortality during the transitional seasons of autumn and spring. The body acclimatizes to heat in the summer and cold in winter and readjusts through acclimatization during the transitions between the two during which time the body experiences the thermophysiological strain of readjustment. To better understand the influences of weather on mortality through the acclimatization process, the aim here is to examine the periods that link very cold and very warms seasons. The study uses the Acclimatization Thermal Strain Index (ATSI), which is a comparative measure of short-term thermophysiological impact on the body. ATSI centers on heat exchange with the body’s core via the respiratory system, which cannot be protected. The analysis is based on data for a major city in the climatic region of the Russian Far East characterized by very hot summers and extremely cold winters. The results show that although mortality peaks in winter (January) and is at its lowest in summer (August), there is not a smooth rise through autumn nor a smooth decline through spring. A secondary peak occurs in autumn (October) with a smaller jump in May. This suggests the acclimatization from warm-to-cold produces more thermophysiological strain than the transition from cold-to-warm. The study shows that ATSI is a useful metric for quantifying the extent to which biophysical adaptation plays a role in increased strain on the body during re-acclimatization and for this reason is a more appropriate climatic indictor than air temperature alone. The work gives useful bioclimatic information on risks involved in transitional seasons in regions characterized by climatic extremes. This

  8. Weather Impacts on Natural, Social and Economic Systems (WISE). Part 2. Individual Perception of Climate Extremes in Italy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galeotti, M.; Goria, A.; Spantidaki, E.; Mombrini, P.


    This paper focuses on the results of the research work carried out by Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) within the WISE project. This project aims at investigating the effects and the impacts of extreme weather events, particularly very warm summers, mild winters and storms, on the socio-economic systems of European countries. The output consists of a series of empirical studies, both of quantitative and qualitative descriptive nature. The work of FEEM in the WISE project covers the quantitative analysis of the impacts of climate extremes on the socio-economic system in Italy and the analysis of individuals' perception of climate extremes based on results from individuals' surveys. In this paper is considered the study of the perception of weather impacts through questionnaire survey to the general public. With regard to the individuals' perception survey, a sample of 300 individuals were interviewed by telephone: 150 extracted from the North of Italy and 150 from the South of Italy. Individuals were asked general questions about their perception of climate extremes, and about the impacts of weather extremes on their daily habits at work, at home, in their leisure activities, on their transport patterns, on their health and tourism choices

  9. Climate control: United States weather modification in the cold war and beyond. (United States)

    Harper, Kristine C


    Rainmaking, hail busting, fog lifting, snowpack enhancing, lightning suppressing, hurricane control. At the lunatic fringe of scientific discussion in the early twentieth century--and the subject of newspaper articles with tones ranging from skeptical titters to awestruck wonder--weather modification research became more serious after World War II. In the United States, the 'seeds' of silver iodide and dry ice purported to enhance rainfall and bust hailstorms soon became seeds of controversy from which sprouted attempts by federal, state and local government to control the controllers and exploit 'designer weather' for their own purposes.

  10. The Impact of Extreme Weather Events on Dissolved Organic Matter and Microbial Biomass of chernozem soils (United States)

    Müller, Ann-Christin; Blagodatskaya, Evgenia


    The aim of this experiment was to study the impact of the extreme weather events freezing-thawing and drying-rewetting on C-, N- and P-dynamics in dissolved organic matter and microbial biomass. The three variants of a chernozem soil (Voronezh region, Russia) are (1) fertilized maize cropping, (2) unfertilized maize cropping and (3) a bare fallow. After both abiotic perturbations the respiration rates were generally lower in the freezing-thawing than in the drying-rewetting treatment, due to the lower temperature. The elevated respiration came along with the decay of organic matter, which was also manifested in increased mineralization of C, N and P immediately after rewetting. However, freezing-thawing had significantly less impact on C-, N- and P-mobilization. We conclude that drying-rewetting leads to an initially increased mobilization of C, N and P, which becomes obvious as increased amounts of DOM immediately after rewetting. Freezing-thawing does not affect mobilization in the same way. There, only an increased mobilization of C can be observed. Especially concerning N and P, the reaction is dependent on the form of use/cropping in both treatments.

  11. Insurance as an adaptation strategy for extreme weather events indeveloping countries and economies in transition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mills, Evan


    thisperiod, insurance covered four percent of total costs of weather-relateddisasters in emerging markets compared to 40 percent in high-incomecountries. While relatively small, insurance payments to people inemerging markets associated with these losses were three-times themagnitude of international aid. The potential for changes in weatherpatterns, including both average conditions and extreme events, wouldlikely raise the demand for insurance whether the changes area resultnatural variability or human-induced climate change. At the same time,increases in weather-related damage create uncertainties and challengeinsurers ability and willingness to assume or affordably price these newrisks. Sustainable development can contribute to managing and maintainingthe insurability of these risks and thereby reduce the need forindividuals and governments to absorb the costs.Because of themulti-national structure of the insurance a

  12. Forest bat population dynamics over 14 years at a climate refuge: Effects of timber harvesting and weather extremes. (United States)

    Law, Bradley S; Chidel, Mark; Law, Peter R


    Long-term data are needed to explore the interaction of weather extremes with habitat alteration; in particular, can 'refugia' buffer population dynamics against climate change and are they robust to disturbances such as timber harvesting. Because forest bats are good indicators of ecosystem health, we used 14 years (1999-2012) of mark-recapture data from a suite of small tree-hollow roosting bats to estimate survival, abundance and body condition in harvested and unharvested forest and over extreme El Niño and La Niña weather events in southeastern Australia. Trapping was replicated within an experimental forest, located in a climate refuge, with different timber harvesting treatments. We trapped foraging bats and banded 3043 with a 32% retrap rate. Mark-recapture analyses allowed for dependence of survival on time, species, sex, logging treatment and for transients. A large portion of the population remained resident, with a maximum time to recapture of nine years. The effect of logging history (unlogged vs 16-30 years post-logging regrowth) on apparent survival was minor and species specific, with no detectable effect for two species, a positive effect for one and negative for the other. There was no effect of logging history on abundance or body condition for any of these species. Apparent survival of residents was not strongly influenced by weather variation (except for the smallest species), unlike previous studies outside of refugia. Despite annual variation in abundance and body condition across the 14 years of the study, no relationship with extreme weather was evident. The location of our study area in a climate refuge potentially buffered bat population dynamics from extreme weather. These results support the value of climate refugia in mitigating climate change impacts, though the lack of an external control highlights the need for further studies on the functioning of climate refugia. Relatively stable population dynamics were not compromised by

  13. Predictability of extreme weather events for NE U.S.: improvement of the numerical prediction using a Bayesian regression approach (United States)

    Yang, J.; Astitha, M.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Hartman, B.; Kallos, G. B.


    Weather prediction accuracy has become very important for the Northeast U.S. given the devastating effects of extreme weather events in the recent years. Weather forecasting systems are used towards building strategies to prevent catastrophic losses for human lives and the environment. Concurrently, weather forecast tools and techniques have evolved with improved forecast skill as numerical prediction techniques are strengthened by increased super-computing resources. In this study, we examine the combination of two state-of-the-science atmospheric models (WRF and RAMS/ICLAMS) by utilizing a Bayesian regression approach to improve the prediction of extreme weather events for NE U.S. The basic concept behind the Bayesian regression approach is to take advantage of the strengths of two atmospheric modeling systems and, similar to the multi-model ensemble approach, limit their weaknesses which are related to systematic and random errors in the numerical prediction of physical processes. The first part of this study is focused on retrospective simulations of seventeen storms that affected the region in the period 2004-2013. Optimal variances are estimated by minimizing the root mean square error and are applied to out-of-sample weather events. The applicability and usefulness of this approach are demonstrated by conducting an error analysis based on in-situ observations from meteorological stations of the National Weather Service (NWS) for wind speed and wind direction, and NCEP Stage IV radar data, mosaicked from the regional multi-sensor for precipitation. The preliminary results indicate a significant improvement in the statistical metrics of the modeled-observed pairs for meteorological variables using various combinations of the sixteen events as predictors of the seventeenth. This presentation will illustrate the implemented methodology and the obtained results for wind speed, wind direction and precipitation, as well as set the research steps that will be

  14. The structure and large-scale organization of extreme cold waves over the conterminous United States (United States)

    Xie, Zuowei; Black, Robert X.; Deng, Yi


    Extreme cold waves (ECWs) occurring over the conterminous United States (US) are studied through a systematic identification and documentation of their local synoptic structures, associated large-scale meteorological patterns (LMPs), and forcing mechanisms external to the US. Focusing on the boreal cool season (November-March) for 1950‒2005, a hierarchical cluster analysis identifies three ECW patterns, respectively characterized by cold surface air temperature anomalies over the upper midwest (UM), northwestern (NW), and southeastern (SE) US. Locally, ECWs are synoptically organized by anomalous high pressure and northerly flow. At larger scales, the UM LMP features a zonal dipole in the mid-tropospheric height field over North America, while the NW and SE LMPs each include a zonal wave train extending from the North Pacific across North America into the North Atlantic. The Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) in general simulates the three ECW patterns quite well and successfully reproduces the observed enhancements in the frequency of their associated LMPs. La Niña and the cool phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) favor the occurrence of NW ECWs, while the warm PDO phase, low Arctic sea ice extent and high Eurasian snow cover extent (SCE) are associated with elevated SE-ECW frequency. Additionally, high Eurasian SCE is linked to increases in the occurrence likelihood of UM ECWs.

  15. Assessing the Implications of Changing Extreme Value Distributions of Weather on Carbon and Water Cycling in Grasslands (United States)

    Brunsell, N. A.; Nippert, J. B.


    As the climate warms, it is generally acknowledged that the number and magnitude of extreme weather events will increase. We examined an ecophysiological model's responses to precipitation and temperature anomalies in relation to the mean and variance of annual precipitation along a pronounced precipitation gradient from eastern to western Kansas. This natural gradient creates a template of potential responses for both the mean and variance of annual precipitation to compare the timescales of carbon and water fluxes. Using data from several Ameriflux sites (KZU and KFS) and a third eddy covariance tower (K4B) along the gradient, BIOME-BGC was used to characterize water and carbon cycle responses to extreme weather events. Changes in the extreme value distributions were based on SRES A1B and A2 scenarios using an ensemble mean of 21 GCMs for the region, downscaled using a stochastic weather generator. We focused on changing the timing and magnitude of precipitation and altering the diurnal and seasonal temperature ranges. Biome-BGC was then forced with daily output from the stochastic weather generator, and we examined how potential changes in these extreme value distributions impact carbon and water cycling at the sites across the Kansas precipitation gradient at time scales ranging from daily to interannual. To decompose the time scales of response, we applied a wavelet based information theory analysis approach. Results indicate impacts in soil moisture memory and carbon allocation processes, which vary in response to both the mean and variance of precipitation along the precipitation gradient. These results suggest a more pronounced focus ecosystem responses to extreme events across a range of temporal scales in order to fully characterize the water and carbon cycle responses to global climate change.

  16. Extreme weather events in southern Germany - Climatological risk and development of a large-scale identification procedure (United States)

    Matthies, A.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Rohlfing, G.; Ulbrich, U.


    Extreme weather events such as thunderstorms, hail and heavy rain or snowfall can pose a threat to human life and to considerable tangible assets. Yet there is a lack of knowledge about present day climatological risk and its economic effects, and its changes due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations. Therefore, parts of economy particularly sensitve to extreme weather events such as insurance companies and airports require regional risk-analyses, early warning and prediction systems to cope with such events. Such an attempt is made for southern Germany, in close cooperation with stakeholders. Comparing ERA40 and station data with impact records of Munich Re and Munich Airport, the 90th percentile was found to be a suitable threshold for extreme impact relevant precipitation events. Different methods for the classification of causing synoptic situations have been tested on ERA40 reanalyses. An objective scheme for the classification of Lamb's circulation weather types (CWT's) has proved to be most suitable for correct classification of the large-scale flow conditions. Certain CWT's have been turned out to be prone to heavy precipitation or on the other side to have a very low risk of such events. Other large-scale parameters are tested in connection with CWT's to find out a combination that has the highest skill to identify extreme precipitation events in climate model data (ECHAM5 and CLM). For example vorticity advection in 700 hPa shows good results, but assumes knowledge of regional orographic particularities. Therefore ongoing work is focused on additional testing of parameters that indicate deviations of a basic state of the atmosphere like the Eady Growth Rate or the newly developed Dynamic State Index. Evaluation results will be used to estimate the skill of the regional climate model CLM concerning the simulation of frequency and intensity of the extreme weather events. Data of the A1B scenario (2000-2050) will be examined for a possible climate change

  17. Impacts of extreme weather events on highly eutrophic marine ecosystem (Rogoznica Lake, Adriatic coast) (United States)

    Ciglenečki, I.; Janeković, I.; Marguš, M.; Bura-Nakić, E.; Carić, M.; Ljubešić, Z.; Batistić, M.; Hrustić, E.; Dupčić, I.; Garić, R.


    Rogoznica Lake is highly eutrophic marine system located on the Eastern Adriatic coast (43°32‧N, 15°58‧E). Because of the relatively small size (10,276 m2) and depth (15 m) it experiences strong natural and indirect anthropogenic influences. Dynamics within the lake is characterized by the extreme and highly variable environmental conditions (seasonal variations in salinity and temperature, water stratification and mixing, redox and euxinic conditions, concentrations of nutrients) which significantly influence the biology inside the lake. Due to the high phytoplankton activity, the upper part of the water column is well oxygenated, while hypoxia/anoxia usually occurs in the bottom layers. Anoxic part of the water column is characterized with high concentrations of sulfide (up to 5 mM) and nutrients (NH4+ up to 315 μM; PO43- up to 53 μM; SiO44- up to 680 μM) indicating the pronounced remineralization of the allochthonous organic matter, produced in the surface waters. The mixolimnion varies significantly within a season feeling effects of the Adriatic atmospheric and ocean dynamics (temperature, wind, heat fluxes, rainfall) which all affect the vertical stability and possibly induce vertical mixing and/or turnover. Seasonal vertical mixing usually occurs during the autumn/winter upon the breakdown of the stratification, injecting oxygen-rich water from the surface into the deeper layers. Depending on the intensity and duration of the vertical dynamics (slower diffusion and/or faster turnover of the water layers) anoxic conditions could developed within the whole water column. Extreme weather events such as abrupt change in the air temperature accompanied with a strong wind and consequently heat flux are found to be a key triggering mechanism for the fast turnover, introducing a large amount of nutrients and sulfur species from deeper parts to the surface. Increased concentration of nutrients, especially ammonium, phosphate, and silicates persisting for

  18. Influence of Mascarene High and Indian Ocean dipole on East African extreme weather events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ogwang Bob Alex


    Full Text Available Extreme weather and climate events such as floods and droughts are common in East Africa, causing huge socio-economic losses. This study links the east African October-December (OND rainfall, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD and Mascarene High (MH.Correlation analysis is applied to quantify the relationship between the index of IOD (Dipole Mode Index (DMI and OND rainfall. Results show that there exists a significant correlation between OND rainfall and DMI, with a correlation coefficient of 0.6. During dry years, MH is observed to intensify and align itself in the southeast-northwest orientation, stretching up to the continent, which in turn inhibits the influx of moisture from Indian Ocean into East Africa. During wet years, MH weakens, shifts to the east and aligns itself in the zonal orientation. Moisture from Indian Ocean is freely transported into east Africa during wet years. Analysis of the drought and flood years with respect to the different variables including wind, velocity potential and divergence/ convergence revealed that the drought (flood years were characterized by divergence (convergence in the lower troposphere and convergence (divergence at the upper level, implying sinking (rising motion, especially over the western Indian Ocean and the study area. Convergence at low level gives rise to vertical stretching, whereas divergence results in vertical shrinking, which suppresses convection due to subsidence. Positive IOD (Negative IOD event results into flood (drought in the region. The evolution of these phenomena can thus be keenly observed for utilization in the update of seasonal forecasts.

  19. Decision-support tools for Extreme Weather and Climate Events in the Northeast United States (United States)

    Kumar, S.; Lowery, M.; Whelchel, A.


    Decision-support tools were assessed for the 2013 National Climate Assessment technical input document, "Climate Change in the Northeast, A Sourcebook". The assessment included tools designed to generate and deliver actionable information to assist states and highly populated urban and other communities in assessment of climate change vulnerability and risk, quantification of effects, and identification of adaptive strategies in the context of adaptation planning across inter-annual, seasonal and multi-decadal time scales. State-level adaptation planning in the Northeast has generally relied on qualitative vulnerability assessments by expert panels and stakeholders, although some states have undertaken initiatives to develop statewide databases to support vulnerability assessments by urban and local governments, and state agencies. The devastation caused by Superstorm Sandy in October 2012 has raised awareness of the potential for extreme weather events to unprecedented levels and created urgency for action, especially in coastal urban and suburban communities that experienced pronounced impacts - especially in New Jersey, New York and Connecticut. Planning approaches vary, but any adaptation and resiliency planning process must include the following: - Knowledge of the probable change in a climate variable (e.g., precipitation, temperature, sea-level rise) over time or that the climate variable will attain a certain threshold deemed to be significant; - Knowledge of intensity and frequency of climate hazards (past, current or future events or conditions with potential to cause harm) and their relationship with climate variables; - Assessment of climate vulnerabilities (sensitive resources, infrastructure or populations exposed to climate-related hazards); - Assessment of relative risks to vulnerable resources; - Identification and prioritization of adaptive strategies to address risks. Many organizations are developing decision-support tools to assist in the urban

  20. Impact of phytopathogen infection and extreme weather stress on internalization of Salmonella Typhimurium in lettuce. (United States)

    Ge, Chongtao; Lee, Cheonghoon; Nangle, Ed; Li, Jianrong; Gardner, David; Kleinhenz, Matthew; Lee, Jiyoung


    Internalization of human pathogens, common in many types of fresh produce, is a threat to human health since the internalized pathogens cannot be fully inactivated/removed by washing with water or sanitizers. Given that pathogen internalization can be affected by many environmental factors, this study was conducted to investigate the influence of two types of plant stress on the internalization of Salmonella Typhimurium in iceberg lettuce during pre-harvest. The stresses were: abiotic (water stress induced by extreme weather events) and biotic (phytopathogen infection by lettuce mosaic virus [LMV]). Lettuce with and without LMV infection were purposefully contaminated with green fluorescence protein-labeled S. Typhimurium on the leaf surfaces. Lettuce was also subjected to water stress conditions (drought and storm) which were simulated by irrigating with different amounts of water. The internalized S. Typhimurium in the different parts of the lettuce were quantified by plate count and real-time quantitative PCR and confirmed with a laser scanning confocal microscope. Salmonella internalization occurred under the conditions outlined above; however internalization levels were not significantly affected by water stress alone. In contrast, the extent of culturable S. Typhimurium internalized in the leafy part of the lettuce decreased when infected with LMV under water stress conditions and contaminated with high levels of S. Typhimurium. On the other hand, LMV-infected lettuce showed a significant increase in the levels of culturable bacteria in the roots. In conclusion, internalization was observed under all experimental conditions when the lettuce surface was contaminated with S. Typhimurium. However, the extent of internalization was only affected by water stress when lettuce was infected with LMV. © 2013.

  1. Assessment of the Suitability of High Resolution Numerical Weather Model Outputs for Hydrological Modelling in Mountainous Cold Regions (United States)

    Rasouli, K.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Hayashi, M.; Fang, X.; Gutmann, E. D.; Li, Y.


    The hydrology of mountainous cold regions has a large spatial variability that is driven both by climate variability and near-surface process variability associated with complex terrain and patterns of vegetation, soils, and hydrogeology. There is a need to downscale large-scale atmospheric circulations towards the fine scales that cold regions hydrological processes operate at to assess their spatial variability in complex terrain and quantify uncertainties by comparison to field observations. In this research, three high resolution numerical weather prediction models, namely, the Intermediate Complexity Atmosphere Research (ICAR), Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), and Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) models are used to represent spatial and temporal patterns of atmospheric conditions appropriate for hydrological modelling. An area covering high mountains and foothills of the Canadian Rockies was selected to assess and compare high resolution ICAR (1 km × 1 km), WRF (4 km × 4 km), and GEM (2.5 km × 2.5 km) model outputs with station-based meteorological measurements. ICAR with very low computational cost was run with different initial and boundary conditions and with finer spatial resolution, which allowed an assessment of modelling uncertainty and scaling that was difficult with WRF. Results show that ICAR, when compared with WRF and GEM, performs very well in precipitation and air temperature modelling in the Canadian Rockies, while all three models show a fair performance in simulating wind and humidity fields. Representation of local-scale atmospheric dynamics leading to realistic fields of temperature and precipitation by ICAR, WRF, and GEM makes these models suitable for high resolution cold regions hydrological predictions in complex terrain, which is a key factor in estimating water security in western Canada.

  2. Desensitization of menthol-activated cold receptors in lower extremities during local cooling in young women with a cold constitution. (United States)

    Yamazaki, Fumio; Sone, Ryoko


    To test the hypothesis that topical menthol-induced reactivity of cold sensation and cutaneous vasoconstriction to local cooling is augmented in individuals with a cold constitution, we examined thermal sensation and cutaneous vasoconstrictor responses at menthol-treated and untreated sites in the legs during local skin cooling in young women complaining of chilliness (C group) and young women with no complaint as a normal control group (N group). During local skin cooling, the sensitivity to cold sensation was greater in the C group than in the N group. The application of menthol enhanced the cold sensation at a low temperature in the N group, but not in the C group. Cutaneous vasoconstrictor responses to local skin cooling were not altered by menthol treatment in either of the two groups. These findings suggest the desensitization of menthol-activated cold receptors in the legs of C group subjects, and a minor role of cold receptor activity in cutaneous vasoconstrictor response to local cooling.

  3. De Novo Transcriptome Sequencing and the Hypothetical Cold Response Mode of Saussurea involucrata in Extreme Cold Environments. (United States)

    Li, Jin; Liu, Hailiang; Xia, Wenwen; Mu, Jianqiang; Feng, Yujie; Liu, Ruina; Yan, Panyao; Wang, Aiying; Lin, Zhongping; Guo, Yong; Zhu, Jianbo; Chen, Xianfeng


    Saussurea involucrata grows in high mountain areas covered by snow throughout the year. The temperature of this habitat can change drastically in one day. To gain a better understanding of the cold response signaling pathways and molecular metabolic reactions involved in cold stress tolerance, genome-wide transcriptional analyses were performed using RNA-Seq technologies. A total of 199,758 transcripts were assembled, producing 138,540 unigenes with 46.8 Gb clean data. Overall, 184,416 (92.32%) transcripts were successfully annotated. The 365 transcription factors identified (292 unigenes) belonged to 49 transcription factor families associated with cold stress responses. A total of 343 transcripts on the signal transduction (132 upregulated and 212 downregulated in at least any one of the conditions) were strongly affected by cold temperature, such as the CBL-interacting serine/threonine-protein kinase ( CIPKs ), receptor-like protein kinases , and protein kinases . The circadian rhythm pathway was activated by cold adaptation, which was necessary to endure the severe temperature changes within a day. There were 346 differentially expressed genes (DEGs) related to transport, of which 138 were upregulated and 22 were downregulated in at least any one of the conditions. Under cold stress conditions, transcriptional regulation, molecular transport, and signal transduction were involved in the adaptation to low temperature in S. involucrata . These findings contribute to our understanding of the adaptation of plants to harsh environments and the survival traits of S. involucrata . In addition, the present study provides insight into the molecular mechanisms of chilling and freezing tolerance.

  4. Designing Resilient and Productive Grasses with Plasticity to Extreme Weather Events (United States)

    Loka, D.; Humphreys, M.; Gwyn Jones, D.; Scullion, J.; Doonan, J.; Gasior, D.; Harper, J.; Farrell, M.; Kingston-Smith, A.; Dodd, R.; Chadwick, D.; Hill, P.; Robinson, D.; Jones, D.


    Grasslands occupy more than 70% of the world's agricultural land and are major providers of healthy feed for livestock and for ecosystem services. Global warming is projected to increase the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events such as drought and flooding and will reduce persistency of currently productive but stress sensitive forage grass varieties, thereby challenging global food security and compromising on their existing ecosystem functionality. New perennial grass varieties, tolerant to the onsets of more than one abiotic stresses, are required in order to achieve sustainable grassland production and function over years under adverse environmental conditions. Identifying and selecting reliable morphological and physiological traits associated with increased resistance to multiple stress conditions is a prerequisite to ensure future grasslands resilience. The objectives of our study were to select from diverse and novel Festulolium (ryegrass spp. x fescue spp. hybrids) grass populations capable of providing optimal combinations of good forage production together with resilience to multiple stresses and to monitor morphological and physiological responses under multiple stress conditions. The grasses were: Festulolium variety Prior (L. perenne x F. pratensis), shown to alter soil structure and hydrology to mitigate run-off and flooding; two advanced breeding populations of diploid L. perenne with genes for drought tolerance derived from the Mediterranean fescue species F. arundinacea and F. glaucescens; two tetraploid hybrid populations involving L. perenne in combination with F. glaucescens and F. mairei (from North Africa), respectively. As controls, Festulolium variety AberNiche and L. perenne variety AberWolf varieties, were used. Treatments consisted of: A) Control; plants maintained at optimum conditions, B) Flood; plants were flooded for 6 weeks followed by a 4-week recovery, C) Drought; plants received limited quantity of water for 12 weeks

  5. A Novel Ice Storm Experiment for Evaluating the Ecological Impacts of These Extreme Weather Events (United States)

    Driscoll, C. T.; Campbell, J. L.; Rustad, L.; Fahey, T.; Fahey, R. T.; Garlick, S.; Groffman, P.; Hawley, G. J.; Schaberg, P. G.


    Ice storms are among the most destructive natural disturbances in some regions of the world, and are an example of an extreme weather event that can profoundly disrupt ecosystem function. Despite potential dire consequences of ice storms on ecosystems and society, we are poorly positioned to predict responses because severe ice storms are infrequent and understudied. Since it is difficult to determine when and where ice storms will occur, most previous research has consisted of ad hoc attempts to characterize impacts in the wake of major icing events. To evaluate ice storm effects in a more controlled manner, we conducted a novel ice storm manipulation experiment at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire. Water was sprayed above the forest canopy in sub-freezing conditions to simulate a glaze ice event. Treatments included replicate plots that received three levels of radial ice thickness (6, 13, and 19 mm) and reference plots that were not sprayed. Additionally, two of the mid-level treatment plots received ice applications in back-to-back years to evaluate effects associated with ice storm frequency. Measures of the forest canopy, including hemispherical photography, photosynthetically active radiation, and ground-based LiDAR, indicated that the ice loads clearly damaged vegetation and opened up the canopy, allowing more light to penetrate. These changes in the canopy were reflected in measurements of fine and coarse woody debris that were commensurate with the level of icing. Soil respiration declined in the most heavily damaged plots, which we attribute to changes in root activity. Although soil solution nitrogen showed clear seasonal patterns, there was no treatment response. These results differ from the severe regional natural ice storm of 1998, which caused large leaching losses of nitrate in soil solutions and stream water during the growing season after the event, due to lack of uptake by damaged vegetation. It is not yet clear why there

  6. Mountain and Cold Weather Warfighting: Critical Capability for the 21st Century (United States)


    guidance, and sage advice. His extensive and detailed understanding of mountain warfare, the former Soviet Union and Afghanistan, and his knowledge ...not brooding about the grimness of nature, they are apt to exult in their mastery of it…Most adults are excellent cross-country skiers . Even apparatus had not prepared them for such conditions. The Finns moved well cross-country in the snow and cold. They were proficient skiers

  7. Projected changes of extreme weather events in the eastern United States based on a high resolution climate modeling system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao, Y; Fu, J S; Drake, J B; Liu, Y; Lamarque, J-F


    This study is the first evaluation of dynamical downscaling using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model on a 4 km × 4 km high resolution scale in the eastern US driven by the new Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM v1.0). First we examined the global and regional climate model results, and corrected an inconsistency in skin temperature during the downscaling process by modifying the land/sea mask. In comparison with observations, WRF shows statistically significant improvement over CESM in reproducing extreme weather events, with improvement for heat wave frequency estimation as high as 98%. The fossil fuel intensive scenario Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 was used to study a possible future mid-century climate extreme in 2057–9. Both the heat waves and the extreme precipitation in 2057–9 are more severe than the present climate in the Eastern US. The Northeastern US shows large increases in both heat wave intensity (3.05 °C higher) and annual extreme precipitation (107.3 mm more per year). (letter)

  8. Forest bat population dynamics over 14 years at a climate refuge: Effects of timber harvesting and weather extremes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bradley S Law

    Full Text Available Long-term data are needed to explore the interaction of weather extremes with habitat alteration; in particular, can 'refugia' buffer population dynamics against climate change and are they robust to disturbances such as timber harvesting. Because forest bats are good indicators of ecosystem health, we used 14 years (1999-2012 of mark-recapture data from a suite of small tree-hollow roosting bats to estimate survival, abundance and body condition in harvested and unharvested forest and over extreme El Niño and La Niña weather events in southeastern Australia. Trapping was replicated within an experimental forest, located in a climate refuge, with different timber harvesting treatments. We trapped foraging bats and banded 3043 with a 32% retrap rate. Mark-recapture analyses allowed for dependence of survival on time, species, sex, logging treatment and for transients. A large portion of the population remained resident, with a maximum time to recapture of nine years. The effect of logging history (unlogged vs 16-30 years post-logging regrowth on apparent survival was minor and species specific, with no detectable effect for two species, a positive effect for one and negative for the other. There was no effect of logging history on abundance or body condition for any of these species. Apparent survival of residents was not strongly influenced by weather variation (except for the smallest species, unlike previous studies outside of refugia. Despite annual variation in abundance and body condition across the 14 years of the study, no relationship with extreme weather was evident. The location of our study area in a climate refuge potentially buffered bat population dynamics from extreme weather. These results support the value of climate refugia in mitigating climate change impacts, though the lack of an external control highlights the need for further studies on the functioning of climate refugia. Relatively stable population dynamics were not

  9. Transportation System Vulnerability and Resilience to Extreme Weather Events and Other Natural Hazards : Final Results of Vulnerability Assessment of National Highway System for All KYTC Districts (United States)


    Recent federal legislation and the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) have directed state transportation agencies to identify potential vulnerabilities associated with extreme weather events and climate change, develop a risk-based asset managemen...

  10. Links between Synoptic Weather Types and Extreme Wet Events in the Arabian Peninsula (1960-2100)

    KAUST Repository

    El Kenawy, Ahmed M.


    In this work, an automated version of the Lamb weather type classification scheme was applied to classify daily weather types in the Arabian Peninsula. The output catalogue included ten basic weather types, which describe the direction and vorticity of airflow in the peninsula (i.e., cyclonic, anticyclonic and directional). These large-scale patterns were first defined for the observed climate (1960-2013), allowing for an assessment of the spatial and temporal variations in circulation-rainfall relationships over the peninsula using rainfall data from 209 weather observatories. The same methodology was then applied to assess how the defined weather types will be presented in future climate simulations (under RCP45 and RCP85 emission scenarios) and to explore their probable dependency with rainfall characteristics. In this regard, daily simulated SLP derived from an ensemble of 12 climate models within the CMIP5 project were used for two future time-slices (2035-2060 and 2075-2100). Our findings indicate that the cyclonic (C) type represented the most frequent classification with 69.2% of days, followed by SE directional flows (21%). It was also found that the main circulation features influencing winter (spring) rainfall across the peninsula are the strong influence of the anticyclonic (easterly and southeasterly) air masses. Generally, the role of airflows originating from the Indian Ocean is larger than those of the Mediterranean and the Red Seas. The trend results of defined weather types show that the cyclonic (anticyclonic) conditions tend to decrease (increase). This picture is likely to continue during the 21st century. The only exception corresponds to the summer season. Here, understanding the association between atmospheric circulation patterns and rainfall in the Arabian Peninsula can be important for the understanding of climatic variability and thus developing circulation-based downscaling methods in this region.

  11. Has dry/cold weather an impact on the skin condition of cleanroom workers? (United States)

    Weistenhöfer, Wobbeke; Uter, Wolfgang; Drexler, Hans


    In previous epidemiological studies irritant skin changes were reported significantly more frequently under dry/cold ambient air conditions. The aim of this study was to assess whether a similar effect might be observed in cleanroom workers, occupationally exposed to strictly controlled ambient conditions. This investigation examined 690 employees of a semiconductor production company in Germany, one half in winter (n = 358) and the other half in spring (n = 332). In both waves, both cleanroom workers, who used occlusive gloves predominantly during the entire shift, and employees in the administration, serving as the control group, were included. Ambient outdoor temperature and relative humidity (RH) were measured and absolute humidity (AH) was calculated. Hands were dermatologically examined with quantitative clinical skin score HEROS, supplemented by transepidermal water loss (TEWL) and stratum corneum hydration measurements. Temperature ranged from -5.41 to 6.51°C in winter (RH 71.04-92.38%; AH 2.85-6.7 g/m 3 ) and from 6.35 to 10.26°C in spring (RH 76.17-82.79%; AH 5.66-7.92 g/m 3 ). Regarding HEROS, TEWL, and corneometry, no marked consistent pattern regarding an enhanced or decreased risk of irritant skin changes was found. Work in a strictly controlled environment with prolonged wearing of occlusive gloves, with clean hands and without exposure to additional hazardous substances, did not seem to negatively affect the skin. In this particular setting, meteorological conditions also did not appear to adversely affect the skin. It is conceivable that wearing of gloves and air conditioning in the plant protect skin of the hands from adverse effects due to dry and cold air encountered when not working.

  12. U. S. Energy Sector Vulnerabilities to Climate Change and Extreme Weather (United States)


    Almost three million people and businesses lost power due to the complexes of thunderstorms coupled with strong winds, also known as a derecho , NOAA. 2012e. “NWS (National Weather Service) Baltimore/Washington: The Derecho of June 29, 2012.” National Oceanic

  13. Learning from today's extreme weather events to increase our resilience to climate change (United States)

    Ruin, I.; Lutoff, C.; Borga, M.; Creutin, J.-D.; Anquetin, S.; Gruntfest, E.; Scolobig, A.


    reflecting individuals and community responses to the crisis. Most of the time this information is hard to gather as no methodology has been developed for it. Social impacts of extreme weather event are related by public media during and shortly after the event. The impacts are documented by public agencies such as rescue services, medical care facilities, insurance companies in the limit of their respective missions and of their means. It appears during exceptional crises, the reporting, routinely done by these institutions, is made very difficult because the pace of rescue operations is too great (for example, almost 3000 people were rescued in one night during the September 2002 event). Social consequences are also partially summarized in the framework of official investigations led by state institutions after the crisis (see, for instance the report of Huet et al. (2003) in French). All in all, the resulting information appears to be fragmented and too heterogeneous to be used for statistical analysis and for monitoring long-term evolution of social vulnerability and adaptive capacity. The behavioral data collection is only possible in the framework of an organized partnership between scientists from different disciplines and operational services as national and European civil protection structures. An opportunity for settling this type of collaboration maybe find through existing structures as research observatories like the "Cévennes-Vivarais Mediterranean Hydrometeorological Observatory" (OHM-CV) located in Southern France and the "North-eastern Italy Hydrometeorological Observatory", located in NE Italy. These natural observatories stem from a research initiative aiming to understand intense Mediterranean storms that lead to devastating flash floods. A primary objective is to bring together the skills of meteorologists and hydrologists, model designers and experimentalists, researchers and practitioners to cope with these events that are so difficult to predict

  14. Development of heat and drought related extreme weather events and their effect on winter wheat yields in Germany (United States)

    Lüttger, Andrea B.; Feike, Til


    Climate change constitutes a major challenge for high productivity in wheat, the most widely grown crop in Germany. Extreme weather events including dry spells and heat waves, which negatively affect wheat yields, are expected to aggravate in the future. It is crucial to improve the understanding of the spatiotemporal development of such extreme weather events and the respective crop-climate relationships in Germany. Thus, the present study is a first attempt to evaluate the historic development of relevant drought and heat-related extreme weather events from 1901 to 2010 on county level (NUTS-3) in Germany. Three simple drought indices and two simple heat stress indices were used in the analysis. A continuous increase in dry spells over time was observed over the investigated periods from 1901-1930, 1931-1960, 1961-1990 to 2001-2010. Short and medium dry spells, i.e., precipitation-free periods longer than 5 and 8 days, respectively, increased more strongly compared to longer dry spells (longer than 11 days). The heat-related stress indices with maximum temperatures above 25 and 28 °C during critical wheat growth phases showed no significant increase over the first three periods but an especially sharp increase in the final 1991-2010 period with the increases being particularly pronounced in parts of Southwestern Germany. Trend analysis over the entire 110-year period using Mann-Kendall test revealed a significant positive trend for all investigated indices except for heat stress above 25 °C during flowering period. The analysis of county-level yield data from 1981 to 2010 revealed declining spatial yield variability and rather constant temporal yield variability over the three investigated (1981-1990, 1991-2000, and 2001-2010) decades. A clear spatial gradient manifested over time with variability in the West being much smaller than in the east of Germany. Correlating yield variability with the previously analyzed extreme weather indices revealed strong

  15. A 24-year-old male with a painful and cold lower extremity. (United States)

    Robinson, Eric A; Khalpey, Zain I; Janardhanan, Rajesh


    A 24-year-old male presented to the emergency department with intense pain in his right lower extremity. He has a medical history significant for systemic lupus erythematosus and antiphospholipid syndrome. He also had four prior episodes of deep venous thromboses on rivaroxaban. The patient stated that early in the morning, he started to feel intense pain that started from his knee and progressed to his calf, with associated numbness and paraesthesia. On physical examination, the limb felt cold with absent right popliteal and dorsalis pedis pulses. He was immediately taken for embolectomy after discovery of a distal common femoral artery occlusion. The patient's blood cultures remained negative. X-plane imaging on real-time three-dimensional transoesophageal echocardiography (RT-3DTEE) of the aortic valve (figure 1A) and colour Doppler (figure 1B) are shown. What is the diagnosis and management for this patient (assuming the patient will stay anticoagulated for life)? Infective endocarditis (IE); antibiotics and valve replacementLibman-Sacks endocarditis; corticosteroidsIE; antibiotics onlyLibman-Sacks endocarditis; valve replacementLibman-Sacks endocarditis; continuing anticoagulation only heartjnl;103/10/765/HEARTJNL2016310872F1F1HEARTJNL2016310872F1Figure 1Visualisation of the aortic valve on (A) X-plane imaging on real-time three-dimensional transoesophageal echocardiography (RT-3DTEE) and (B) colour Doppler. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to

  16. Study on the effectiveness of Extreme Cold Mist MQL system on turning process of stainless steel AISI 316 (United States)

    Jamaludin, A. S.; Hosokawa, A.; Furumoto, T.; Koyano, T.; Hashimoto, Y.


    Cutting process of difficult-to-cut material such as stainless steel, generates immensely excessive heat, which is one of the major causes related to shortening tool life and lower quality of surface finish. It is proven that application of cutting fluid during the cutting process of difficult-to-cut material is able to improve the cutting performance, but excessive application of cutting fluid leads to another problem such as increasing processing cost and environmental hazardous pollution of workplace. In the study, Extreme Cold Mist system is designed and tested along with various Minimum Quantity Lubrication (MQL) systems on turning process of stainless steel AISI 316. In the study, it is obtained that, Extreme Cold Mist system is able to reduce cutting force up to 60N and improve the surface roughness of the machined surface significantly.

  17. Future intensification of hydro-meteorological extremes: downscaling using the weather research and forecasting model

    KAUST Repository

    El-Samra, R.; Bou-Zeid, E.; Bangalath, Hamza Kunhu; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; El-Fadel, M.


    Pathways (RCP) (4.5 and 8.5). Each downscaling simulation spanned one year. Two past years (2003 and 2008), also forced by HiRAM without data assimilation, were simulated to evaluate the model’s ability to capture the cold and wet (2003) and hot and dry

  18. The effect of extreme cold temperatures on the risk of death in the two major Portuguese cities (United States)

    Antunes, Liliana; Silva, Susana Pereira; Marques, Jorge; Nunes, Baltazar; Antunes, Sílvia


    It is well known that meteorological conditions influence the comfort and human health. Southern European countries, including Portugal, show the highest mortality rates during winter, but the effects of extreme cold temperatures in Portugal have never been estimated. The objective of this study was the estimation of the effect of extreme cold temperatures on the risk of death in Lisbon and Oporto, aiming the production of scientific evidence for the development of a real-time health warning system. Poisson regression models combined with distributed lag non-linear models were applied to assess the exposure-response relation and lag patterns of the association between minimum temperature and all-causes mortality and between minimum temperature and circulatory and respiratory system diseases mortality from 1992 to 2012, stratified by age, for the period from November to March. The analysis was adjusted for over dispersion and population size, for the confounding effect of influenza epidemics and controlled for long-term trend, seasonality and day of the week. Results showed that the effect of cold temperatures in mortality was not immediate, presenting a 1-2-day delay, reaching maximum increased risk of death after 6-7 days and lasting up to 20-28 days. The overall effect was generally higher and more persistent in Lisbon than in Oporto, particularly for circulatory and respiratory mortality and for the elderly. Exposure to cold temperatures is an important public health problem for a relevant part of the Portuguese population, in particular in Lisbon.

  19. Influenza epidemics, seasonality, and the effects of cold weather on cardiac mortality (United States)


    Background More people die in the winter from cardiac disease, and there are competing hypotheses to explain this. The authors conducted a study in 48 US cities to determine how much of the seasonal pattern in cardiac deaths could be explained by influenza epidemics, whether that allowed a more parsimonious control for season than traditional spline models, and whether such control changed the short term association with temperature. Methods The authors obtained counts of daily cardiac deaths and of emergency hospital admissions of the elderly for influenza during 1992–2000. Quasi-Poisson regression models were conducted estimating the association between daily cardiac mortality, and temperature. Results Controlling for influenza admissions provided a more parsimonious model with better Generalized Cross-Validation, lower residual serial correlation, and better captured Winter peaks. The temperature-response function was not greatly affected by adjusting for influenza. The pooled estimated increase in risk for a temperature decrease from 0 to −5°C was 1.6% (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1-2.1%). Influenza accounted for 2.3% of cardiac deaths over this period. Conclusions The results suggest that including epidemic data explained most of the irregular seasonal pattern (about 18% of the total seasonal variation), allowing more parsimonious models than when adjusting for seasonality only with smooth functions of time. The effect of cold temperature is not confounded by epidemics. PMID:23025494

  20. Extreme Weather and Civil War in Somalia: Does Drought Fuel Conflict through Livestock Price Shocks?


    Maystadt, Jean-Francois; Ecker, Olivier; Mabiso, Athur


    Climate change leads to more frequent and more intense droughts in Somalia. In a global context, weather shocks have been found to perpetuate poverty and fuel civil conflict. By relating regional and temporal variations in violent conflict outbreaks with drought incidence and severity, we show that this causality is valid also for Somalia at the local level. We find that livestock price shocks drive drought-induced conflicts through reducing the opportunity costs of conflict participation. Ou...

  1. Extreme weather events and related disasters in the Philippines, 2004-08: a sign of what climate change will mean? (United States)

    Yumul, Graciano P; Cruz, Nathaniel A; Servando, Nathaniel T; Dimalanta, Carla B


    Being an archipelagic nation, the Philippines is susceptible and vulnerable to the ill-effects of weather-related hazards. Extreme weather events, which include tropical cyclones, monsoon rains and dry spells, have triggered hazards (such as floods and landslides) that have turned into disasters. Financial resources that were meant for development and social services have had to be diverted in response, addressing the destruction caused by calamities that beset different regions of the country. Changing climatic patterns and weather-related occurrences over the past five years (2004-08) may serve as an indicator of what climate change will mean for the country. Early recognition of this possibility and the implementation of appropriate action and measures, through disaster risk management, are important if loss of life and property is to be minimised, if not totally eradicated. This is a matter of urgent concern given the geographical location and geological characteristics of the Philippines. © 2011 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2011.

  2. Climate change, extreme weather events, air pollution and respiratory health in Europe. (United States)

    De Sario, M; Katsouyanni, K; Michelozzi, P


    Due to climate change and other factors, air pollution patterns are changing in several urbanised areas of the world, with a significant effect on respiratory health both independently and synergistically with weather conditions; climate scenarios show Europe as one of the most vulnerable regions. European studies on heatwave episodes have consistently shown a synergistic effect of air pollution and high temperatures, while the potential weather-air pollution interaction during wildfires and dust storms is unknown. Allergen patterns are also changing in response to climate change, and air pollution can modify the allergenic potential of pollens, especially in the presence of specific weather conditions. The underlying mechanisms of all these interactions are not well known; the health consequences vary from decreases in lung function to allergic diseases, new onset of diseases, exacerbation of chronic respiratory diseases, and premature death. These multidimensional climate-pollution-allergen effects need to be taken into account in estimating both climate and air pollution-related respiratory effects, in order to set up adequate policy and public health actions to face both the current and future climate and pollution challenges.

  3. Monitoring the impacts of weather and climate extremes on global agricultural production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Johansson


    Full Text Available The World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB, under the direction of the Department of Agriculture's Office of the Chief Economist, employs a staff of agricultural meteorologists whose mission is to monitor and assess the impacts of weather and climate on crops in key growing areas throughout the world. The results of those analyses contribute to the deliberations conducted by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees (ICEC led by analysts at the World Agricultural Outlook Board. The results of those deliberations can be found in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE report, one of the designated Principle Federal Economic Indicators issued monthly by the Federal Government (White House (Office of Management and Budget, 2015. The process used to develop those estimates each month requires the integration of an assessment of the current climatic conditions with knowledge of the agricultural practices and market conditions of a particular country. Weather and climate data are used in conjunction with information on when and where crops are planted, production practices including irrigation, which varieties are best suited for that particular climate, and what naturally occurring hazards can be expected in any given year. Being able to closely compare current conditions to historic observations of weather and realized output on a fine scale, temporally and geographically, is a key component of the international estimates in the WASDE process.

  4. The Acoustic Emission in the Nest of the Honey Bee Depending on the Extreme Weather Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaromír Tlačbaba


    Full Text Available The vibroacoustic signals are an important part of communication in the honey bees (Apis mellifera L.. The aim of this study was to observe the acoustic emission that varies in a bee colony during different weather phenomena (strong winds and hailstorms and to estimate the nature and the extent of the reactions of the colony by the analysis of the obtained data. Experiments were carried out in the volume-reduced hives. The specific weather phenomena were followed by significant (P < 0.0001 increasing of the intensity of the acoustic emission in the colony in comparison with acoustic emission before or after the phenomena. Close linear positive relationship was confirmed between the intensity of wind gusts and intensity of acoustic emission (r = 0.72; P < 0.001. With the increase in the maximum gust of 1 km·h−1, the intensity of acoustic emission increased by 0.1466 mV. The character and degree of reaction of the colony can be estimated with analysis of the measured data. Permeability of vibration signals directly induced weather phenomena through the construction of the experimental hive and the stress in the colony are discussed. Observation of the acoustic emission distributed within the colony is one of the methodical alternatives for research of the vibroacoustic communication in the colony.

  5. Defining Population Health Vulnerability Following an Extreme Weather Event in an Urban Pacific Island Environment: Honiara, Solomon Islands (United States)

    Natuzzi, Eileen S.; Joshua, Cynthia; Shortus, Matthew; Reubin, Reginald; Dalipanda, Tenneth; Ferran, Karen; Aumua, Audrey; Brodine, Stephanie


    Extreme weather events are common and increasing in intensity in the southwestern Pacific region. Health impacts from cyclones and tropical storms cause acute injuries and infectious disease outbreaks. Defining population vulnerability to extreme weather events by examining a recent flood in Honiara, Solomon Islands, can help stakeholders and policymakers adapt development to reduce future threats. The acute and subacute health impacts following the April 2014 floods were defined using data obtained from hospitals and clinics, the Ministry of Health and in-country World Health Organization office in Honiara. Geographical information system (GIS) was used to assess morbidity and mortality, and vulnerability of the health system infrastructure and households in Honiara. The April flash floods were responsible for 21 acute deaths, 33 injuries, and a diarrhea outbreak that affected 8,584 people with 10 pediatric deaths. A GIS vulnerability assessment of the location of the health system infrastructure and households relative to rivers and the coastline identified 75% of the health infrastructure and over 29% of Honiara's population as vulnerable to future hydrological events. Honiara, Solomon Islands, is a rapidly growing, highly vulnerable urban Pacific Island environment. Evaluation of the mortality and morbidity from the April 2014 floods as well as the infectious disease outbreaks that followed allows public health specialists and policy makers to understand the health system and populations vulnerability to future shocks. Understanding the negative impacts natural disaster have on people living in urban Pacific environments will help the government as well as development partners in crafting resilient adaptation development. PMID:27091867

  6. Detection and Attribution of Climate Change : From global mean temperature change to climate extremes and high impact weather.

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva


    This talk will describe how evidence has grown in recent years for a human influence on climate and explain how the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that it is extremely likely (>95% probability) that human influence on climate has been the dominant cause of the observed global-mean warming since the mid-20th century. The fingerprint of human activities has also been detected in warming of the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, and in changes in some climate extremes. The strengthening of evidence for the effects of human influence on climate extremes is in line with long-held basic understanding of the consequences of mean warming for temperature extremes and for atmospheric moisture. Despite such compelling evidence this does not mean that every instance of high impact weather can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change, because climate variability is often a major factor in many locations, especially for rain...

  7. Evaluation of high resolution spatio-temporal precipitation extremes from a stochastic weather generator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørup, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen; Christensen, O. B.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten


    Spatio-temporal rainfall is modelled for the North-Eastern part of Zealand (Denmark) using the Spatio-Temporal Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulses model as implemented in the RainSim software. Hourly precipitation series for fitting the model are obtained from a dense network of tipping bucket rain...... gauges in the model area. The spatiotemporal performance of the model with respect to precipitation extremes is evaluated in the points of a 2x2 km regular grid covering the full model area. The model satisfactorily reproduces the extreme behaviour of the observed precipitation with respect to event...... intensity levels and unconditional spatial correlation when evaluated using an event based ranking approach at point scale and an advanced spatiotemporal coupling of extreme events. Prospectively the model can be used as a tool to evaluate the impact of climate change without relying on precipitation output...

  8. Evaluation of high resolution spatio-temporal precipitation extremes from a stochastic weather generator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørup, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen; Christensen, O. B.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    gauges in the model area. The spatio-temporal performance of the model with respect to precipitation extremes is evaluated in the points of a 2x2 km regular grid covering the full model area. The model satisfactorily reproduces the extreme behaviour of the observed precipitation with respect to event...... intensity levels and unconditional spatial correlation when evaluated using an event based ranking approach at point scale and an advanced spatio-temporal coupling of extreme events. Prospectively the model can be used as a tool to evaluate the impact of climate change without relying onprecipitation output......Spatio-temporal rainfall is modelled for the North-Eastern part of Zealand (Denmark) using the Spatio-Temporal Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulses model as implemented in the RainSim software. Hourly precipitation series for fitting the model are obtained from a dense network of tipping bucket rain...

  9. Using Weather Types to Understand and Communicate Weather and Climate Impacts (United States)

    Prein, A. F.; Hale, B.; Holland, G. J.; Bruyere, C. L.; Done, J.; Mearns, L.


    A common challenge in atmospheric research is the translation of scientific advancements and breakthroughs to decision relevant and actionable information. This challenge is central to the mission of NCAR's Capacity Center for Climate and Weather Extremes (C3WE, C3WE advances our understanding of weather and climate impacts and integrates these advances with distributed information technology to create tools that promote a global culture of resilience to weather and climate extremes. Here we will present an interactive web-based tool that connects historic U.S. losses and fatalities from extreme weather and climate events to 12 large-scale weather types. Weather types are dominant weather situations such as winter high-pressure systems over the U.S. leading to very cold temperatures or summertime moist humid air masses over the central U.S. leading to severe thunderstorms. Each weather type has a specific fingerprint of economic losses and fatalities in a region that is quantified. Therefore, weather types enable a direct connection of observed or forecasted weather situation to loss of life and property. The presented tool allows the user to explore these connections, raise awareness of existing vulnerabilities, and build resilience to weather and climate extremes.

  10. Exploring regional stakeholder needs and requirements in terms of Extreme Weather Event Attribution (United States)

    Schwab, M.; Meinke, I.; Vanderlinden, J. P.; Touili, N.; Von Storch, H.


    Extreme event attribution has increasingly received attention in the scientific community. It may also serve decision-making at the regional level where much of the climate change impact mitigation takes place. Nevertheless, there is, to date, little known about the requirements of regional actors in terms of extreme event attribution. We have therefore analysed these at the example of regional decision-makers for climate change-related activities and/or concerned with storm surge risks at the German Baltic Sea and heat wave risks in the Greater Paris area. In order to explore if stakeholders find scientific knowledge from extreme event attribution useful and how this information might be relevant to their decision-making, we consulted a diverse set of actors engaged in the assessment, mitigation and communication of storm surge, heat wave, and climate change-related risks. Extreme event attribution knowledge was perceived to be most useful to public and political awareness-raising, but was of little or no relevance for the consulted stakeholders themselves. It was not acknowledged that it would support adaptation planning as sometimes argued in the literature. The consulted coastal protection, health, and urban adaptation planners rather needed reliable statements about possible future changes in extreme events than causal statements about past events. To enhance salience, a suitable product of event attribution should be linked to regional problems, vulnerabilities, and impacts of climate change. Given that the tolerance of uncertainty is rather low, most of the stakeholders also claimed that a suitable product of event attribution is to be received from a trusted "honest broker" and published rather later, but with smaller uncertainties than vice versa. Institutional mechanisms, like regional climate services, which enable and foster communication, translation and mediation across the boundaries between knowledge and action can help fulfill such requirements

  11. Evidence of fuels management and fire weather influencing fire severity in an extreme fire event. (United States)

    Lydersen, Jamie M; Collins, Brandon M; Brooks, Matthew L; Matchett, John R; Shive, Kristen L; Povak, Nicholas A; Kane, Van R; Smith, Douglas F


    Following changes in vegetation structure and pattern, along with a changing climate, large wildfire incidence has increased in forests throughout the western United States. Given this increase, there is great interest in whether fuels treatments and previous wildfire can alter fire severity patterns in large wildfires. We assessed the relative influence of previous fuels treatments (including wildfire), fire weather, vegetation, and water balance on fire-severity in the Rim Fire of 2013. We did this at three different spatial scales to investigate whether the influences on fire severity changed across scales. Both fuels treatments and previous low to moderate-severity wildfire reduced the prevalence of high-severity fire. In general, areas without recent fuels treatments and areas that previously burned at high severity tended to have a greater proportion of high-severity fire in the Rim Fire. Areas treated with prescribed fire, especially when combined with thinning, had the lowest proportions of high severity. The proportion of the landscape burned at high severity was most strongly influenced by fire weather and proportional area previously treated for fuels or burned by low to moderate severity wildfire. The proportion treated needed to effectively reduce the amount of high severity fire varied by spatial scale of analysis, with smaller spatial scales requiring a greater proportion treated to see an effect on fire severity. When moderate and high-severity fire encountered a previously treated area, fire severity was significantly reduced in the treated area relative to the adjacent untreated area. Our results show that fuels treatments and low to moderate-severity wildfire can reduce fire severity in a subsequent wildfire, even when burning under fire growth conditions. These results serve as further evidence that both fuels treatments and lower severity wildfire can increase forest resilience. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

  12. Effect of cold water and inverse lighting on growth performance of broiler chickens under extreme heat stress. (United States)

    Park, Sang-oh; Park, Byung-sung; Hwangbo, Jong


    The present study was carried out to investigate the effect of provision of extreme heat stress diet (EHD), inverse lighting, cold water on growth performance of broiler chickens exposed to extreme heat stress. The chickens were divided into four treatment groups, (T1, T2, T3, T4) as given below: Ti (EHD 1, 10:00-19:00 dark, 19:00-10:00 light, cool water 9 degrees C); T2 (EHD 2, 10:00-19:00 dark, 19:00-10:00 light, cool water 9 degrees C); T3 (EHD 1, 09:00-18:00 dark, 18:00-09:00 light, cool water 141C); T4 (EHD 2, 09:00-18:00 dark, 18:00-09:00 light, cool water 14 degrees C. EHD 1 contained soybean oil, molasses, methionine and lysine; EHD 2 contained the same ingredients as EHD 1 with addition of vitamin C. Groups T1 and T2 were given cooler water than the othertwo groups, and displayed higher body weight increase and diet intake as compared to T3 and T4 (pstress diet, inverse lighting (10:00-19:00 dark, 19:00-10:00 light) with cold water at 9 degrees C under extreme heat stress could enhance growth performance of broiler chickens.

  13. A study of weather types at Athens and Thessaloniki and their relationship to circulation types for the cold-wet period, part II: discriminant analysis (United States)

    Michailidou, C.; Maheras, P.; Arseni-Papadimititriou, A.; Kolyva-Machera, F.; Anagnostopoulou, C.


    A discriminant analysis is applied in order to determine the relationships between circulation types in the middle troposphere and prevailing weather types over two major Greek cities, Athens and Thessaloniki. In order to describe the synoptic conditions, an automatic classification scheme for the Greek region is used. For each circulation type identified (14 in total), several meteorological parameters at the 500 hPa level are calculated such as geopotential heights and their anomalies, temperature and relative vorticity. Weather group-types that reflect the conditions at the surface, were previously defined using a two-step cluster analysis. These types result from a combination of five meteorological parameters—maximum temperature, precipitation amount, relative humidity, wind velocity and sunshine duration. The study period is 43 years long (1958-2000) and is restricted to the cold and wet period of the year, from December until March. For Athens, six weather types are developed, whereas for Thessaloniki five are produced. By means of a stepwise discriminant analysis (DA) model, the most important variables from the 500 hPa level are found and are used to generate the necessary functions that can discriminate weather types over the two stations. The aim of the present study is first to discriminate weather types effectively and to identify the most important discriminating variables, and second, to connect these weather types to elements of the prevailing synoptic pattern, through mathematical functions provided by DA. The results of the evaluation of the aforementioned procedure are considered to be very satisfactory.

  14. Thermal discomfort with cold extremities in relation to age, gender, and body mass index in a random sample of a Swiss urban population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orgül Selim


    Full Text Available Abstract Background The aim of this epidemiological study was to investigate the relationship of thermal discomfort with cold extremities (TDCE to age, gender, and body mass index (BMI in a Swiss urban population. Methods In a random population sample of Basel city, 2,800 subjects aged 20-40 years were asked to complete a questionnaire evaluating the extent of cold extremities. Values of cold extremities were based on questionnaire-derived scores. The correlation of age, gender, and BMI to TDCE was analyzed using multiple regression analysis. Results A total of 1,001 women (72.3% response rate and 809 men (60% response rate returned a completed questionnaire. Statistical analyses revealed the following findings: Younger subjects suffered more intensely from cold extremities than the elderly, and women suffered more than men (particularly younger women. Slimmer subjects suffered significantly more often from cold extremities than subjects with higher BMIs. Conclusions Thermal discomfort with cold extremities (a relevant symptom of primary vascular dysregulation occurs at highest intensity in younger, slimmer women and at lowest intensity in elderly, stouter men.

  15. Projected Changes in Persistent Extreme Warm-Season Weather Events: The Role of Quasi-Resonant Amplification (United States)

    Mann, M. E.; Rahmstorf, S.; Kornhuber, K.; Steinman, B. A.; Miller, S. K.; Coumou, D.


    Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer are typically associated with high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves with zonal wavenumbers. Such disturbances are favoured by the phenomenon of Quasi-Resonant Amplification (QRA). A fingerprint for the occurrence of QRA can be defined in terms of the zonally-averaged surface temperature field. Examining future state-of-the-art (CMIP5) climate model projections we find that such events are likely to increase by 50% over the next century under business-as-usual carbon emissions, but there is considerable variation among climate models, with some models predicting a near tripling of QRA events by the end of the century. These results are strongly dependent on assumptions regarding the prominence of changes in radiative forcing associated with anthropogenic aerosols over the next century.

  16. Rapid enhancement of chemical weathering recorded by extremely light seawater lithium isotopes at the Permian-Triassic boundary (United States)

    Sun, He; Xiao, Yilin; Gao, Yongjun; Zhang, Guijie; Casey, John F.; Shen, Yanan


    Lithium (Li) isotope analyses of sedimentary rocks from the Meishan section in South China reveal extremely light seawater Li isotopic signatures at the Permian–Triassic boundary (PTB), which coincide with the most severe mass extinction in the history of animal life. Using a dynamic seawater lithium box model, we show that the light seawater Li isotopic signatures can be best explained by a significant influx of riverine [Li] with light δ7Li to the ocean realm. The seawater Li isotope excursion started ≥300 Ky before and persisted up to the main extinction event, which is consistent with the eruption time of the Siberian Traps. The eruption of the Siberian Traps exposed an enormous amount of fresh basalt and triggered CO2 release, rapid global warming, and acid rains, which in turn led to a rapid enhancement of continental weathering. The enhanced continental weathering delivered excessive nutrients to the oceans that could lead to marine eutrophication, anoxia, acidification, and ecological perturbation, ultimately resulting in the end-Permian mass extinction.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Usman Raheem


    Full Text Available Nigeria is a disaster prone country. The disasters which often result into environmental emergencies like flooding are worsened by the degradation of the country’s environment and natural resources. Floods, rainstorms and droughts affect households each year in Ilorin and contribute to endemic poverty in most parts of Kwara State. Anticipated increases in extreme weather events will exacerbate this. Using data from both primary and secondary sources the study examines the urban vulnerability and adaptation to climate change among flood and rainstorm victims in Ilorin, Nigeria. The primary data include questionnaire administration to victims in the affected areas of the city. The secondary data on the other hand, include data from the Kwara State Emergency Management Agency on flood victims in the State between 2002 and 2007. This study brings out the important issue of vulnerability, coping and adaptation to weather induced disasters among the urban poor. The study revealed that the indigenous coping mechanisms employed by the poor may become less effective as increasingly fragile livelihood systems struggle to withstand disaster shocks. Also, many of these long-term trends are rendering indigenous coping strategies less effective and thus are increasing the vulnerability of the poor.

  18. Effect of multiple-feedstock strategy on the economic and environmental performance of thermochemical ethanol production under extreme weather conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kou, Nannan; Zhao, Fu


    Current US transportation sector mainly relies on liquid hydrocarbons derived from petroleum and about 60% of the petroleum consumed is from areas where supply may be disturbed by regional instability. This has led to serious concerns on energy security and global warming. To address these issues, numerous alternative energy carriers have been proposed. Among them, second generation biofuel is one of the most promising technologies. Gasification-based thermochemical conversion will bring flexibility to both feedstock and production sides of a plant, thus presents an attractive technical route to address both the energy security and global warming concerns. In this paper, thermochemical ethanol production using multiple-feedstock (corn stover, municipal solid waste, and wood chips) is simulated using Aspen Plus and compared with the single-feedstock scenario, in terms of economic performances, life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and survivability under extreme weather conditions. For a hypothetical facility in southwest Indiana it is found that multiple-feedstock strategy improves the net present value by 18% compared to single-feedstock strategy. This margin is increased to 57% when effects of extreme weather conditions on feedstock supply are considered. Moreover, multiple-feedstock fuel plant has no potential risk of bankruptcy during the payback period, while single-feedstock fuel plant has a 75% chance of bankruptcy. Although the multiple-feedstock strategy has 26% more GHG emission per liter of ethanol produced than the single-feedstock strategy, the trend is reversed if feedstock supply disruption is taken into account. Thus the idea of multiple-feedstock strategy is proposed to the future thermo chemical biofuel plants.

  19. Characterization and effects of cold fronts in the Colombian Caribbean Coast and their relationship to extreme wave events (United States)

    Ortiz-Royero, J. C.; Otero, L. J.; Restrepo, J. C.; Ruiz, J.; Cadena, M.


    Extreme ocean waves in the Caribbean Sea are commonly related to the effects of storms and hurricanes during the months of June through November. The collapse of 200 m of the Puerto Colombia pier in March 2009 revealed the effects of meteorological phenomena other than storms and hurricanes that may be influencing the extreme wave regime in the Colombian Caribbean. The marked seasonality of these atmospheric fronts was established by analyzing the meteorological-marine reports of Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales of Colombia (IDEAM, based on its initials in Spanish) and Centro de Investigación en Oceanografía y Meteorología of Colombia (CIOH, based on its initials in Spanish). The highest occurrences were observed during the months of January, February, and March, with 6 fronts occurring per year. An annual trend was not observed, although the highest number of fronts occurred in 2010 (20 in total). An annual strong relationship between the maximum average wave values and the cold fronts, in the central zone of the Colombian Caribbean during the first three months of the year was established. In addition, the maximum values of the significant height produced by the passage of cold fronts during the last 16 yr were identified. Although the Colombian Caribbean has been affected by storms and hurricanes in the past, this research allows us to conclude that, there is a strong relationship between cold fronts and the largest waves in the Colombian Caribbean during the last 16 yr, which have caused damage to coastal infrastructure. We verified that the passage of a cold front corresponded to the most significant extreme wave event of the last two decades in the Colombian Caribbean, which caused the structural collapse of the Puerto Colombia pier, located near the city of Barranquilla, between 5 and 10 March 2009. This information is invaluable when evaluating average and extreme wave regimes for the purpose of informing the design of

  20. Geospatial Analysis of Extreme Weather Events in Nigeria (1985–2015 Using Self-Organizing Maps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adeoluwa Akande


    Full Text Available The explosion of data in the information age has provided an opportunity to explore the possibility of characterizing the climate patterns using data mining techniques. Nigeria has a unique tropical climate with two precipitation regimes: low precipitation in the north leading to aridity and desertification and high precipitation in parts of the southwest and southeast leading to large scale flooding. In this research, four indices have been used to characterize the intensity, frequency, and amount of rainfall over Nigeria. A type of Artificial Neural Network called the self-organizing map has been used to reduce the multiplicity of dimensions and produce four unique zones characterizing extreme precipitation conditions in Nigeria. This approach allowed for the assessment of spatial and temporal patterns in extreme precipitation in the last three decades. Precipitation properties in each cluster are discussed. The cluster closest to the Atlantic has high values of precipitation intensity, frequency, and duration, whereas the cluster closest to the Sahara Desert has low values. A significant increasing trend has been observed in the frequency of rainy days at the center of the northern region of Nigeria.

  1. Dynamical Influence and Operational Impacts of an Extreme Mediterranean Cold Surge (United States)


    in significant flooding over regions surrounding the Mediterranean Sea ( Trigo , Bigg, & Davies 2002). The cold air mass and associated cyclogenesis...119, 17–55. Trigo , I., G. Bigg, and T. Davies, 2002: Climatology of cyclogenesis mechanisms in the Mediterranean. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 549–569

  2. Public health and climate change. The example of extreme weather events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pascal, M.; Pirard, P.; Medina, S.; Viso, A.C.; Caserio-Schonemann, C.; Beaudeau, P.


    Climate change may be considered as a key factor for environmental change, exposure to health risks and pathogens, consequently impairing the state of health among populations. Health surveillance Systems can be used 1) to trigger early warning Systems, 2) to create databases which improve scientific knowledge about the health impacts of climate change, 3) to identify and prioritize needs for intervention and adaptation measures, and 4) to evaluate these measures. InVS proposed a method to identify possible health risks and to assess the needs for strengthened health surveillance Systems, taking into account environment, individual and social behaviors, demography and health state. Extreme climate events are illustrated here. These events have short, medium and long term impacts that could be reduced through efficient prevention. To better understand these impacts and orientate prevention, interdisciplinary studies will be needed. (authors)

  3. Cold Weather Entomology. (United States)

    McLure, John W.


    Suggests instructional strategies and student activities related to the study of insects during the winter. Includes possible collecting sites and classroom activities once the insects have been collected. (JN)

  4. Possible links between extreme levels of space weather changes and human health state in middle latitudes: direct and indirect indicators (United States)

    Safaraly-Oghlu Babayev, Elchin

    geomagnetic storms of the solar cycle 23 on the mentioned systems in middle-latitude location. In these studies, direct and indirect indicators of space weather influence are used: 1) Indirect indicators are essentially epidemiological data showing the temporal and spatial distribution of defined events or health disturbances involving considerable numbers of test subjects over several years. The indirect indicators used in this paper are: temporal distribution of emergency calls and hospital admissions (sudden cardiac deaths, acute myocardial infarction mortality and morbidity, so on), dynamics of traffic accidents, epidemics, etc.; 2) Direct indicators. They are physiological parameters, which can be objectively verified and which are acquired either in vivo, directly on the subject (heart rate and its variability, blood pressure, human brain's functional state, human psycho-emotional state, so on), or in vitro by laboratory diagnostics or tissue investigations. The potential co-factors, e.g. terrestrial (tropospheric) weather, seasons, demographic factor, working environment, etc., were also considered in the interpretation of the indicators. Spectral analyses have revealed certain chronobiological periodicities in the considered data. There are also provided results of daily medical-physiological experiments (acupunctural studies of conductivity of the biologically active points of human body in days with different geomagnetic activity levels) conducted in the Laboratory of Heliobiology, Baku, Azerbaijan, as a part of collaborative studies with Russian institutions such as IZMIRAN and Space Research Institute. They show on the latitudinal and longitudinal dependence of space weather influence. Our complex studies enabled to conclude that not only extremely high, but also very low levels of geomagnetic activity may have signifi- cant influence on human health state, especially, in the cardio-vascular health state and human brain's bioelectrical activity.

  5. Effect of Extreme Cold Treatment on Morphology and Behavior of Hydrogels and Microgels (Poster Session) (United States)


    capable of better managing a soldier’s comfort by regulating moisture and thermal properties • Hydrogel or microgel textile coatings are of understand the effect of cold temperature ( down to -80 ° C) on hydrogel and microgel particles properties and response to thermal stimuli • We...determine water uptake post freezing Sweat EFFECTS ON WATER UPTAKE PRELIMINARY MICROGEL THERMAL STUDIES MORPHOLOGY POST FREEZING PAA PEG PNIPAAm BEFORE AFTER

  6. Impacts of Extreme Hot Weather Events on Electricity Consumption in Baden-Wuerttemberg (United States)

    Mimler, S.


    Changes in electricity consumption due to hot weather events were examined for the German federal state Baden-Württemberg. The analysis consists of three major steps: Firstly, an analysis of the media coverage on the hot summer of 2003 gives direct and indirect information about changes in electricity demand due to changes in consumption patterns. On the one hand there was an overall increase in electricity demand due to the more frequent use of air conditionings, fans, cooling devices and water pumps. On the other hand shifts in electricity consumption took place due to modifications in daily routines: if possible, core working times were scheduled earlier, visitor streams in gastronomy and at events shifted from noon to evening hours, a temporal shifting of purchases took place in early morning or evening hours, and an increased night-activity was documented by a higher number of police operations due to noise disturbances. In a second step, some of the findings of the media analysis were quantified for households in the city region of Karlsruhe. For the chosen electric device groups refrigerators, mini-coolers, air conditionings, fans and electric stoves the difference between the consumption on a hot summer day and a normal summer day was computed. For this purpose, assumptions had to be made on the share of affected households, affected devices or usage patterns. These assumptions were summarized into three scenarios on low, medium and high heat induced changes in electricity consumption. In total, the quantification resulted in a range of about 7.5 to 9.2 % of heat-induced over-consumption related to the average amount of electrical load that is normally provided to Karlsruhe households on a summer's day. A third analysis of summer load curves aimed at testing the following hypotheses derived from the media analysis regarding changes in every-day routines and their effects on shifts in load profiles. To test the hypotheses, correlation tests were applied. (1

  7. Planning support system for climate adaptation: Composing effective sets of blue-green measures to reduce urban vulnerability to extreme weather events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Voskamp, I.M.; Ven, Van de F.H.M.


    The risk of pluvial flooding, heat stress and drought is increasing due to climate change. To increase urban resilience to extreme weather events, it is essential to combine green and blue infrastructure and link enhanced storage capacity in periods of water surplus with moments of water shortage as

  8. Assessing urban strategies for reducing the impacts of extreme weather on infrastructure networks. (United States)

    Pregnolato, Maria; Ford, Alistair; Robson, Craig; Glenis, Vassilis; Barr, Stuart; Dawson, Richard


    Critical infrastructure networks, including transport, are crucial to the social and economic function of urban areas but are at increasing risk from natural hazards. Minimizing disruption to these networks should form part of a strategy to increase urban resilience. A framework for assessing the disruption from flood events to transport systems is presented that couples a high-resolution urban flood model with transport modelling and network analytics to assess the impacts of extreme rainfall events, and to quantify the resilience value of different adaptation options. A case study in Newcastle upon Tyne in the UK shows that both green roof infrastructure and traditional engineering interventions such as culverts or flood walls can reduce transport disruption from flooding. The magnitude of these benefits depends on the flood event and adaptation strategy, but for the scenarios considered here 3-22% improvements in city-wide travel times are achieved. The network metric of betweenness centrality, weighted by travel time, is shown to provide a rapid approach to identify and prioritize the most critical locations for flood risk management intervention. Protecting just the top ranked critical location from flooding provides an 11% reduction in person delays. A city-wide deployment of green roofs achieves a 26% reduction, and although key routes still flood, the benefits of this strategy are more evenly distributed across the transport network as flood depths are reduced across the model domain. Both options should form part of an urban flood risk management strategy, but this method can be used to optimize investment and target limited resources at critical locations, enabling green infrastructure strategies to be gradually implemented over the longer term to provide city-wide benefits. This framework provides a means of prioritizing limited financial resources to improve resilience. This is particularly important as flood management investments must typically exceed

  9. Realities of weather extremes on daily life in urban India - How quantified impacts infer sensible adaptation options (United States)

    Reckien, D.


    Emerging and developing economies are currently undergoing one of the profoundest socio-spatial transitions in their history, with strong urbanization and weather extremes bringing about changes in the economy, forms of living and living conditions, but also increasing risks and altered social divides. The impacts of heat waves and strong rain events are therefore differently perceived among urban residents. Addressing the social differences of climate change impacts1 and expanding targeted adaptation options have emerged as urgent policy priorities, particularly for developing and emerging economies2. This paper discusses the perceived impacts of weather-related extreme events on different social groups in New Delhi and Hyderabad, India. Using network statistics and scenario analysis on Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) as part of a vulnerability analysis, the investigation provides quantitative and qualitative measures to compare impacts and adaptation strategies for different social groups. Impacts of rain events are stronger than those of heat in both cities and affect the lower income classes particularly. Interestingly, the scenario analysis (comparing altered networks in which the alteration represents a possible adaptation measure) shows that investments in the water infrastructure would be most meaningful and more effective than investments in, e.g., the traffic infrastructure, despite the stronger burden from traffic disruptions and the resulting concentration of planning and policy on traffic ease and investments. The method of Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping offers a link between perception and modeling, and the possibility to aggregate and analyze the views of a large number of stakeholders. Our research has shown that planners and politicians often know about many of the problems, but are often overwhelmed by the problems in their respective cities and look for a prioritization of adaptation options. FCM provides this need and identifies priority adaptation options

  10. Assessment of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for simulation of extreme rainfall events in the upper Ganga Basin (United States)

    Chawla, Ila; Osuri, Krishna K.; Mujumdar, Pradeep P.; Niyogi, Dev


    Reliable estimates of extreme rainfall events are necessary for an accurate prediction of floods. Most of the global rainfall products are available at a coarse resolution, rendering them less desirable for extreme rainfall analysis. Therefore, regional mesoscale models such as the advanced research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are often used to provide rainfall estimates at fine grid spacing. Modelling heavy rainfall events is an enduring challenge, as such events depend on multi-scale interactions, and the model configurations such as grid spacing, physical parameterization and initialization. With this background, the WRF model is implemented in this study to investigate the impact of different processes on extreme rainfall simulation, by considering a representative event that occurred during 15-18 June 2013 over the Ganga Basin in India, which is located at the foothills of the Himalayas. This event is simulated with ensembles involving four different microphysics (MP), two cumulus (CU) parameterizations, two planetary boundary layers (PBLs) and two land surface physics options, as well as different resolutions (grid spacing) within the WRF model. The simulated rainfall is evaluated against the observations from 18 rain gauges and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42RT version 7 data. From the analysis, it should be noted that the choice of MP scheme influences the spatial pattern of rainfall, while the choice of PBL and CU parameterizations influences the magnitude of rainfall in the model simulations. Further, the WRF run with Goddard MP, Mellor-Yamada-Janjic PBL and Betts-Miller-Janjic CU scheme is found to perform best in simulating this heavy rain event. The selected configuration is evaluated for several heavy to extremely heavy rainfall events that occurred across different months of the monsoon season in the region. The model performance improved through incorporation

  11. Using a Six Sigma Fishbone Analysis Approach To Evaluate the Effect of Extreme Weather Events on Salmonella Positives in Young Chicken Slaughter Establishments. (United States)

    Linville, John W; Schumann, Douglas; Aston, Christopher; Defibaugh-Chavez, Stephanie; Seebohm, Scott; Touhey, Lucy


    A six sigma fishbone analysis approach was used to develop a machine learning model in SAS, Version 9.4, by using stepwise linear regression. The model evaluated the effect of a wide variety of variables, including slaughter establishment operational measures, normal (30-year average) weather, and extreme weather events on the rate of Salmonella -positive carcasses in young chicken slaughter establishments. Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) verification carcass sampling data, as well as corresponding data from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration and the Federal Emergency Management Agency, from September 2011 through April 2015, were included in the model. The results of the modeling show that in addition to basic establishment operations, normal weather patterns, differences from normal and disaster events, including time lag weather and disaster variables, played a role in explaining the Salmonella percent positive that varied by slaughter volume quartile. Findings show that weather and disaster events should be considered as explanatory variables when assessing pathogen-related prevalence analysis or research and slaughter operational controls. The apparent significance of time lag weather variables suggested that at least some of the impact on Salmonella rates occurred after the weather events, which may offer opportunities for FSIS or the poultry industry to implement interventions to mitigate those effects.

  12. Variability of extreme weather events over the equatorial East Africa, a case study of rainfall in Kenya and Uganda (United States)

    Ongoma, Victor; Chen, Haishan; Omony, George William


    This study investigates the variability of extreme rainfall events over East Africa (EA), using indices from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The analysis was based on observed daily rainfall from 23 weather stations, with length varying within 1961 and 2010. The indices considered are: wet days ( R ≥1 mm), annual total precipitation in wet days (PRCPTOT), simple daily intensity index (SDII), heavy precipitation days ( R ≥ 10 mm), very heavy precipitation days ( R ≥ 20 mm), and severe precipitation ( R ≥ 50 mm). The non-parametric Mann-Kendall statistical analysis was carried out to identify trends in the data. Temporal precipitation distribution was different from station to station. Almost all indices considered are decreasing with time. The analysis shows that the PRCPTOT, very heavy precipitation, and severe precipitation are generally declining insignificantly at 5 % significant level. The PRCPTOT is evidently decreasing over Arid and Semi-Arid Land (ASAL) as compared to other parts of EA. The number of days that recorded heavy rainfall is generally decreasing but starts to rise in the last decade although the changes are insignificant. Both PRCPTOT and heavy precipitation show a recovery in trend starting in the 1990s. The SDII shows a reduction in most areas, especially the in ASAL. The changes give a possible indication of the ongoing climate variability and change which modify the rainfall regime of EA. The results form a basis for further research, utilizing longer datasets over the entire region to reduce the generalizations made herein. Continuous monitoring of extreme events in EA is critical, given that rainfall is projected to increase in the twenty-first century.

  13. Extreme coldness, the new frontier of petroleum companies; Les tres grands froids, nouvelle frontiere des petroliers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jemain, A.


    This brief article presents the new challenges the oil companies have to face for the exploration and production of oil and gas in extreme climatic conditions (arctic latitudes and deep offshore). The feasibility depends on the development of new, lighter and more resistant materials and on new procedures of 'flow assurance' to avoid the formation of hydrates plugs inside risers and pipes. (J.S.)

  14. Winter Weather Emergencies (United States)

    Severe winter weather can lead to health and safety challenges. You may have to cope with Cold related health problems, including ... there are no guarantees of safety during winter weather emergencies, you can take actions to protect yourself. ...

  15. Extreme weather Events

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Resulting in deaths, disease and injury due to drowning, lack of sanitation and safe drinking water and exposure to dangerous chemical contaminants. Floods and tropical cyclones have greatest impact in South Asia; and Latin America; Increased risk of diarrhoeal diseases, cholera, cryptosporidiosis,; campylobacter and ...

  16. Weather and Climate Extremes. (United States)


    Company. Fantoli, A. (1954). / valori medi della temperatura in Libia. Bulletin of the Italian Geographical Society (Italian), Series. 8, 7, 59-71...Fantoli, A. (1958). La piu aha temperatura del mondo [The highest temperature in the world]. Revue of Aeronautical Meteorology (Italian), 18(3), 53

  17. Cold-target recoil-ion momentum spectroscopy for diagnostics of high harmonics of the extreme-ultraviolet free-electron laser light source at SPring-8

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, X.-J.; Fukuzawa, H.; Pruemper, G.; Ueda, K.; Okunishi, M.; Shimada, K.; Motomura, K.; Saito, N.; Iwayama, H.; Nagaya, K.; Yao, M.; Rudenko, A.; Ullrich, J.; Foucar, L.; Czasch, A.; Schmidt-Boecking, H.; Doerner, R.; Nagasono, M.; Higashiya, A.; Yabashi, M.


    We have developed a cold-target recoil-ion momentum spectroscopy apparatus dedicated to the experiments using the extreme-ultraviolet light pulses at the free-electron laser facility, SPring-8 Compact SASE Source test accelerator, in Japan and used it to measure spatial distributions of fundamental, second, and third harmonics at the end station.

  18. Long-term monitoring reveals cold-water corals in extreme conditions off the southeast US coast (United States)

    Mienis, F.; Duineveld, G.; Davies, A. J.; Ross, S. W.; Lavaleye, M.; Van Weering, T.


    Cold-water corals are common on the SE slope of the US (SEUS) from Florida to Cape Hatteras between depths of 400-600 m. Near Cape Hatteras cold-water corals have formed mound structures that are up to 60 m high, which are mainly covered by living colonies of the coral species Lophelia pertusa. Past explorations of major reef sites of N Carolina using remote and manned submersibles have shown living Lophelia pertusa colonies on the current facing side of the mound structures and a high biodiversity of associated fauna, especially fish. The coral areas lie in the vicinity of the Gulf Stream characterized by strong currents transporting relatively warm water northwards along the SEUS slope. Thus far little is known about the environmental conditions inside the SEUS coral communities and particularly the effects of the nearby Gulf Stream. In December 2009 two autonomous benthic landers were deployed amidst Lophelia reefs off Cape Lookout (NC) for a period of 6 months to define oceanographic patterns that are relevant for the development and persistence of cold-water coral ecosystems. Landers recorded temperature, fluorescence, turbidity, and current speed and direction. Furthermore, a sediment trap was mounted on the landers that collected material at a 16-days interval. A first analysis of the lander data shows that instability of the Gulf Stream causes rapid rises in temperature, current speed and turbidity lasting for days to more than a week. Peak temperature and turbidity levels are the highest measured in coral habitats studied so far. We did not see clear cut effects of Gulf Stream instabilities on the near bed flux of phytodetritus as opposed to reports of meanders inducing upwelling and enhanced production in the photic zone. Data analyzed so far suggest that cwc habitats of Cape Lookout experience extreme and adverse conditions for prolonged periods. The findings of this study are compared with methodologically similar studies that have been conducted in

  19. Online Surface Defect Identification of Cold Rolled Strips Based on Local Binary Pattern and Extreme Learning Machine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Liu


    Full Text Available In the production of cold-rolled strip, the strip surface may suffer from various defects which need to be detected and identified using an online inspection system. The system is equipped with high-speed and high-resolution cameras to acquire images from the moving strip surface. Features are then extracted from the images and are used as inputs of a pre-trained classifier to identify the type of defect. New types of defect often appear in production. At this point the pre-trained classifier needs to be quickly retrained and deployed in seconds to meet the requirement of the online identification of all defects in the environment of a continuous production line. Therefore, the method for extracting the image features and the training for the classification model should be automated and fast enough, normally within seconds. This paper presents our findings in investigating the computational and classification performance of various feature extraction methods and classification models for the strip surface defect identification. The methods include Scale Invariant Feature Transform (SIFT, Speeded Up Robust Features (SURF and Local Binary Patterns (LBP. The classifiers we have assessed include Back Propagation (BP neural network, Support Vector Machine (SVM and Extreme Learning Machine (ELM. By comparing various combinations of different feature extraction and classification methods, our experiments show that the hybrid method of LBP for feature extraction and ELM for defect classification results in less training and identification time with higher classification accuracy, which satisfied online real-time identification.

  20. Whole-body cryotherapy (extreme cold air exposure) for preventing and treating muscle soreness after exercise in adults. (United States)

    Costello, Joseph T; Baker, Philip R A; Minett, Geoffrey M; Bieuzen, Francois; Stewart, Ian B; Bleakley, Chris


    Recovery strategies are often used with the intention of preventing or minimising muscle soreness after exercise. Whole-body cryotherapy, which involves a single or repeated exposure(s) to extremely cold dry air (below -100 °C) in a specialised chamber or cabin for two to four minutes per exposure, is currently being advocated as an effective intervention to reduce muscle soreness after exercise. To assess the effects (benefits and harms) of whole-body cryotherapy (extreme cold air exposure) for preventing and treating muscle soreness after exercise in adults. We searched the Cochrane Bone, Joint and Muscle Trauma Group Specialised Register, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, the British Nursing Index and the Physiotherapy Evidence Database. We also searched the reference lists of articles, trial registers and conference proceedings, handsearched journals and contacted experts.The searches were run in August 2015. We aimed to include randomised and quasi-randomised trials that compared the use of whole-body cryotherapy (WBC) versus a passive or control intervention (rest, no treatment or placebo treatment) or active interventions including cold or contrast water immersion, active recovery and infrared therapy for preventing or treating muscle soreness after exercise in adults. We also aimed to include randomised trials that compared different durations or dosages of WBC. Our prespecified primary outcomes were muscle soreness, subjective recovery (e.g. tiredness, well-being) and adverse effects. Two review authors independently screened search results, selected studies, assessed risk of bias and extracted and cross-checked data. Where appropriate, we pooled results of comparable trials. The random-effects model was used for pooling where there was substantial heterogeneity. We assessed the quality of the evidence using GRADE. Four laboratory-based randomised controlled trials were included. These reported results for 64

  1. Sensitivities of crop models to extreme weather conditions during flowering period demonstrated for maize and winter wheat in Austria

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Eitzinger, Josef; Thaler, S.; Schmid, E.; Strauss, F.; Ferrise, R.; Moriondo, M.; Bindi, M.; Palosuo, T.; Rötter, R.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Olesen, J. E.; Patil, R. H.; Saylan, L.; Çaldag, B.; Caylak, O.


    Roč. 151, č. 6 (2013), s. 813-835 ISSN 0021-8596 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : crop models * weather conditions * winter wheat * Austria Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 2.891, year: 2013

  2. Sensitivities of crop models to extreme weather conditions during flowering period demonstrated for maize and winter wheat in Austria

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eitzinger, J; Thaler, S; Schmid, E


    the start of flowering. Two locations in Austria, representing different agro-climatic zones and soil conditions, were included in the simulations over 2 years, 2003 and 2004, exhibiting contrasting weather conditions. In addition, soil management was modified at both sites by following either ploughing...

  3. Comparison of Cold Weather Clothing Biophysical Properties: US Army, Canadian Department of National Defence, and Norwegian Military (United States)


    Natick, MA 2 Rutgers University, School of Biomedical and Health Sciences, Newark, NJ 3 Research Support Division, USARIEM, Natick, MA 4 Toronto...issue for the U.S. military, as they routinely travel and conduct a range of physical activities around the world within the full spectrum of extreme...level of physical analysis (level 1), for example, clothing can be weighed and inspected for physical attributes. Biophysical analysis (level 2

  4. Recent Intensified Winter Coldness in the Mid-High Latitudes of Eurasia and Its Relationship with Daily Extreme Low Temperature Variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuhan Lu


    Full Text Available Observational records in recent decades show a large-scale decrease in the cold-season temperature variance in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes under continuous global warming. However, severe low temperature events in winter frequently occurred in midlatitude Eurasia (MEA in the last decade. Here, we define a new coldness intensity (CI index for the near-surface based on the amplitude of daily anomalously cold temperatures in winter to demonstrate the CI of the variability of low temperature extremes. The results show that a sign-consistent mode dominates the CI variation in MEA, with a marked intensification during the last decade via empirical orthogonal function (EOF analysis. This leading mode is significantly related to the frequency of winter extreme events. The associated circulations are characterized by a remarkable anomalous anticyclone in Northwest Eurasia, which induced substantial cold advection in MEA. The widespread intensified CI in MEA is closely linked with strong surface anticyclones and synoptic blocking in the mid-high latitudes (25°E–85°E. Coincidently, positive phase shifts of the first two leading modes of the extratropical circulation, which feature similar blocking-like anomalies in the northwestern Eurasian subarctic, jointly play an important role in the recent frequency of severe winters.

  5. The Support of Air Operations Under Extreme Hot and Cold Weather Conditions (Les Operatons Aeriennes en Environnement Extreme Chaud/Froid) (United States)


    as using huarnu data alone, Le. the predicted values abandon thei aircraft over snob terain face the biuarde outside the range of the Imarnu exposure...material’s fire 0 strength and aesthetic appeal . Increased liquid protection. transport causes more liquid to evaporate from the exterior surface; at the

  6. Evaluation of stochastic weather generators for capturing the statistics of extreme precipitation events in the Catskill Mountain watersheds, New York State (United States)

    Acharya, N.; Frei, A.; Owens, E. M.; Chen, J.


    Watersheds located in the Catskill Mountains area, part of the eastern plateau climate region of New York, contributes about 90% of New York City's municipal water supply, serving 9 million New Yorkers with about 1.2 billion gallons of clean drinking water each day. The New York City Department of Environmental Protection has an ongoing series of studies to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the availability of high quality water in this water supply system. Recent studies identify increasing trends in total precipitation and in the frequency of extreme precipitation events in this region. The objectives of the present study are: to analyze the proba­bilistic structure of extreme precipitation based on historical observations: and to evaluate the abilities of stochastic weather generators (WG), statistical models that produce synthetic weather time series based on observed statistical properties at a particular location, to simulate the statistical properties of extreme precipitation events over this region. The generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) has been applied to the annual block maxima of precipitation for 60 years (1950 to 2009) observed data in order to estimate the events with return periods of 50, 75, and 100 years. These results were then used to evaluate a total of 13 WGs were : 12 parametric WGs including all combinations of three different orders of Markov chain (MC) models (1st , 2nd and 3rd) and four different probability distributions (exponential, gamma, skewed normal and mixed exponential); and one semi parametric WG based on k-nearest neighbor bootstrapping. Preliminary results suggest that three-parameter (skewed normal and mixed exponential distribution) and semi-parametric (k-nearest neighbor bootstrapping) WGs are more consistent with observations. It is also found that first order MC models perform as well as second or third order MC models.

  7. Reaction Norms in Natural Conditions: How Does Metabolic Performance Respond to Weather Variations in a Small Endotherm Facing Cold Environments? (United States)

    Petit, Magali; Vézina, François


    Reaction norms reflect an organisms' capacity to adjust its phenotype to the environment and allows for identifying trait values associated with physiological limits. However, reaction norms of physiological parameters are mostly unknown for endotherms living in natural conditions. Black-capped chickadees (Poecile atricapillus) increase their metabolic performance during winter acclimatization and are thus good model to measure reaction norms in the wild. We repeatedly measured basal (BMR) and summit (Msum) metabolism in chickadees to characterize, for the first time in a free-living endotherm, reaction norms of these parameters across the natural range of weather variation. BMR varied between individuals and was weakly and negatively related to minimal temperature. Msum varied with minimal temperature following a Z-shape curve, increasing linearly between 24°C and −10°C, and changed with absolute humidity following a U-shape relationship. These results suggest that thermal exchanges with the environment have minimal effects on maintenance costs, which may be individual-dependent, while thermogenic capacity is responding to body heat loss. Our results suggest also that BMR and Msum respond to different and likely independent constraints. PMID:25426860

  8. The impact of reflectivity correction and accounting for raindrop size distribution variability to improve precipitation estimation by weather radar for an extreme low-land mesoscale convective system (United States)

    Hazenberg, Pieter; Leijnse, Hidde; Uijlenhoet, Remko


    Between 25 and 27 August 2010 a long-duration mesoscale convective system was observed above the Netherlands, locally giving rise to rainfall accumulations exceeding 150 mm. Correctly measuring the amount of precipitation during such an extreme event is important, both from a hydrological and meteorological perspective. Unfortunately, the operational weather radar measurements were affected by multiple sources of error and only 30% of the precipitation observed by rain gauges was estimated. Such an underestimation of heavy rainfall, albeit generally less strong than in this extreme case, is typical for operational weather radar in The Netherlands. In general weather radar measurement errors can be subdivided into two groups: (1) errors affecting the volumetric reflectivity measurements (e.g. ground clutter, radar calibration, vertical profile of reflectivity) and (2) errors resulting from variations in the raindrop size distribution that in turn result in incorrect rainfall intensity and attenuation estimates from observed reflectivity measurements. A stepwise procedure to correct for the first group of errors leads to large improvements in the quality of the estimated precipitation, increasing the radar rainfall accumulations to about 65% of those observed by gauges. To correct for the second group of errors, a coherent method is presented linking the parameters of the radar reflectivity-rain rate (Z - R) and radar reflectivity-specific attenuation (Z - k) relationships to the normalized drop size distribution (DSD). Two different procedures were applied. First, normalized DSD parameters for the whole event and for each precipitation type separately (convective, stratiform and undefined) were obtained using local disdrometer observations. Second, 10,000 randomly generated plausible normalized drop size distributions were used for rainfall estimation, to evaluate whether this Monte Carlo method would improve the quality of weather radar rainfall products. Using the

  9. Response of Land-Sea Interface in Xiamen Bay to Extreme Weather Events Observed with the Ecological Dynamic Buoy Array, a Multifunctional Sensors System (United States)

    Wu, J.; Hong, H.; Pan, W.; Zhang, C.


    Recent climate observations suggest that global climate change may result in an increase of extreme weather events (such as tropical cyclones, intense precipitation i.e. heavy rains) in frequency and/or intensity in certain world regions. Subtropical coastal regions are often densely populated areas experiencing rapid development and widespread changes to the aquatic environment. The biogeochemical and ecological responses of coastal systems to extreme weather events are of increasing concern. Enhanced river nutrients input following rain storms has been linked to the ecological responses at land-sea interface. These land-sea interactions can be studied using multifunctional sensors systems. In our study, the Ecological Dynamic Buoy Array, a monitoring system with multiple sensors, was deployed in Xiamen Bay for near real time measurements of different parameters. The Ecological Dynamic Buoy Array is a deep water net cage which functions in long-term synchronous observation of dynamic ecological characteristics with the support of an aerograph, water-watch, LOBO (Land/Ocean Biogeochemical Observatory), ADCP, CTD chain system, YSI vertical profiler, flow cytometer, sea surface camera, and "communication box". The study showed that rain storms during multiple typhoons resulted in greater fluctuations of salinity, N concentration, and other water environmental conditions, which might have been connected with algal blooms (so-called red tide) in Xiamen Bay.

  10. Solar Weather Ice Monitoring Station (SWIMS). A low cost, extreme/harsh environment, solar powered, autonomous sensor data gathering and transmission system (United States)

    Chetty, S.; Field, L. A.


    The Arctic ocean's continuing decrease of summer-time ice is related to rapidly diminishing multi-year ice due to the effects of climate change. Ice911 Research aims to develop environmentally respectful materials that when deployed will increase the albedo, enhancing the formation and/preservation of multi-year ice. Small scale deployments using various materials have been done in Canada, California's Sierra Nevada Mountains and a pond in Minnesota to test the albedo performance and environmental characteristics of these materials. SWIMS is a sophisticated autonomous sensor system being developed to measure the albedo, weather, water temperature and other environmental parameters. The system (SWIMS) employs low cost, high accuracy/precision sensors, high resolution cameras, and an extreme environment command and data handling computer system using satellite and terrestrial wireless communication. The entire system is solar powered with redundant battery backup on a floating buoy platform engineered for low temperature (-40C) and high wind conditions. The system also incorporates tilt sensors, sonar based ice thickness sensors and a weather station. To keep the costs low, each SWIMS unit measures incoming and reflected radiation from the four quadrants around the buoy. This allows data from four sets of sensors, cameras, weather station, water temperature probe to be collected and transmitted by a single on-board solar powered computer. This presentation covers the technical, logistical and cost challenges in designing, developing and deploying these stations in remote, extreme environments. Image captured by camera #3 of setting sun on the SWIMS station One of the images captured by SWIMS Camera #4

  11. The significance of climate change in the Netherlands. An analysis of historical and future trends (1901-2020) in weather conditions, weather extremes and temperature-related impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Visser, H.


    A rigorous statistical analysis reveals changes in Dutch climate that are statistically significant over the last century. Annually averaged temperatures have increased by 1.5 about 0.5 degrees Centigrade; the number of summer days has roughly doubled from 14 about 5 to 27 about 9 days; annual precipitation has increased by 120 about 100 mm; and the number of extremely wet days has increased by about 40%, from 19 about 3 to 26 about 3 days. Several other changes in Dutch climate, such as spring temperatures rising more rapidly than winter temperatures, the increase of the coldest temperature in each year by 0.9 degrees Centigrade and the annual maximum day sum of precipitation, turn out to be not (yet) statistically significant. The changes in Dutch climate have already led to several statistically significant impacts. The length of the growing season has increased by nearly a month, and the number of heating-degree days, a measure for the energy needed for the heating of houses and buildings, has decreased by 14 about 5%. Projections of future temperature increase in 2020 based on the statistical analysis closely resemble projections based on climate models: temperatures continue to increase from 10.4 about 0.4 degrees Centigrade in 2003 to 10.7 about 0.6 degrees Centigrade in 2010 and 11.1 about 1.0 degrees Centigrade in 2020. The energy needed for heating of houses and buildings is expected to decrease further. This warming effect is expected to lower projections of future Dutch greenhouse-gas emissions by 3.5 Mton CO2 equivalents, which is relevant in the context of commitments under the Kyoto Protocol. Finally, over the course of the 20th century the chance on an 'Elfstedentocht', an outdoor skating event in the Netherlands, has decreased from once every five years to once every ten years. Even though this impact change is not yet statistically significant, it resides 'on the edge' of significance: within a few years more evidence may

  12. Socio-economic and policy aspects of changes in incidence and intensity of extreme weather events. Preliminary results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dorland, C.; Maunder, W.J.; Olsthoorn, A.A.; Tol, R.S.J.; Van der Werff, P.E.; Vellinga, P.


    Climate change results in an alteration of spatial and temporal patterns of climate hazards. The trend in weather related disaster seems upward. Various socio-economic sectors are affected by these changes, e.g. the disaster reduction institutions and the insurance industry. We report about an ongoing project addressing the vulnerabilities of sectors affected and policy options in various sectors, notably 'Storms over NW-Europe', 'the insurance sector' (both as a sector impacted by change and as a mechanism to cope with risk) and 'cyclones in the South Pacific'. 5 refs

  13. Winter Weather: Indoor Safety (United States)

    ... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

  14. Winter Weather: Outdoor Safety (United States)

    ... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

  15. Winter Weather Checklists (United States)

    ... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

  16. Winter Weather: Frostbite (United States)

    ... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

  17. Regional decision-makers as potential users of Extreme Weather Event Attribution - Case studies from the German Baltic Sea coast and the Greater Paris area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Schwab


    Full Text Available Extreme Event Attribution has raised increasing attention in climate science in the last years. It means to judge the extent to which certain weather-related extreme events have changed due to human influences on climate with probabilistic statements. Extreme Event Attribution is often anticipated to spur more than just scientific ambition. It is able to provide answers to a commonly asked questions after extreme events, namely, ‘can we blame it on climate change’ and is assumed to support decision-making of various actors engaged in climate change mitigation and adaptation. More in-depth research is widely lacking about who these actors are; in which context they can make use of it; and what requirements they have, to be able to actually apply Extreme Event Attribution. We have therefore addressed these questions with two empirical case studies looking at regional decision-makers who deal with storm surge risks in the German Baltic Sea region and heat waves in the Greater Paris area. Stakeholder interviews and workshops reveal that fields of application and requirements are diverse, difficult to explicitly identify, and often clearly associated with stakeholders' specific mandate, the hazard background, and the regional socio-economic setting. Among the considered stakeholders in the Baltic Sea region, Extreme Event Attribution is perceived to be most useful to awareness-raising, in particular for climate change mitigation. They emphasised the importance of receiving understandable information - and that, rather later, but with smaller uncertainties than faster, but with higher uncertainties. In the Paris case, we typically talked to people engaged in adaptation with expertise in terms of climate science, but narrowly defined mandates which is typical for the Paris-centred political system with highly specialised public experts. The interviewees claimed that Extreme Event Attribution is most useful to political leverage and public

  18. Assessing the impact of extreme air temperature on fruit trees by modeling weather dependent phenology with variety-specific thermal requirements (United States)

    Alfieri, Silvia Maria; De Lorenzi, Francesca; Missere, Daniele; Buscaroli, Claudio; Menenti, Massimo


    Extremely high and extremely low temperature may have a terminal impact on the productivity of fruit tree if occurring at critical phases of development. Notorious examples are frost during flowering or extremely high temperature during fruit setting. The dates of occurrence of such critical phenological stages depend on the weather history from the start of the yearly development cycle in late autumn, thus the impact of climate extremes can only be evaluated correctly if the phenological development is modeled taking into account the weather history of the specific year being evaluated. Climate change impact may lead to a shift in timing of phenological stages and change in the duration of vegetative and reproductive phases. A changing climate can also exhibit a greater climatic variability producing quite large changes in the frequency of extreme climatic events. We propose a two-stage approach to evaluate the impact of predicted future climate on the productivity of fruit trees. The phenological development is modeled using phase - specific thermal times and variety specific thermal requirements for several cultivars of pear, apricot and peach. These requirements were estimated using phenological observations over several years in Emilia Romagna region and scientific literature. We calculated the dates of start and end of rest completion, bud swell, flowering, fruit setting and ripening stages , from late autumn through late summer. Then phase-specific minimum and maximum cardinal temperature were evaluated for present and future climate to estimate how frequently they occur during any critically sensitive phenological phase. This analysis has been done for past climate (1961 - 1990) and fifty realizations of a year representative of future climate (2021 - 2050). A delay in rest completion of about 10-20 days has been predicted for future climate for most of the cultivars. On the other hand the predicted rise in air temperature causes an earlier development of

  19. Knowledge Discovery, Integration and Communication for Extreme Weather and Flood Resilience Using Artificial Intelligence: Flood AI Alpha (United States)

    Demir, I.; Sermet, M. Y.


    Nobody is immune from extreme events or natural hazards that can lead to large-scale consequences for the nation and public. One of the solutions to reduce the impacts of extreme events is to invest in improving resilience with the ability to better prepare, plan, recover, and adapt to disasters. The National Research Council (NRC) report discusses the topic of how to increase resilience to extreme events through a vision of resilient nation in the year 2030. The report highlights the importance of data, information, gaps and knowledge challenges that needs to be addressed, and suggests every individual to access the risk and vulnerability information to make their communities more resilient. This abstracts presents our project on developing a resilience framework for flooding to improve societal preparedness with objectives; (a) develop a generalized ontology for extreme events with primary focus on flooding; (b) develop a knowledge engine with voice recognition, artificial intelligence, natural language processing, and inference engine. The knowledge engine will utilize the flood ontology and concepts to connect user input to relevant knowledge discovery outputs on flooding; (c) develop a data acquisition and processing framework from existing environmental observations, forecast models, and social networks. The system will utilize the framework, capabilities and user base of the Iowa Flood Information System (IFIS) to populate and test the system; (d) develop a communication framework to support user interaction and delivery of information to users. The interaction and delivery channels will include voice and text input via web-based system (e.g. IFIS), agent-based bots (e.g. Microsoft Skype, Facebook Messenger), smartphone and augmented reality applications (e.g. smart assistant), and automated web workflows (e.g. IFTTT, CloudWork) to open the knowledge discovery for flooding to thousands of community extensible web workflows.

  20. Long-term effects of extreme weather events and eutrophication on the fish community of shallow Lake Peipsi (Estonia/Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Külli Kangur


    Full Text Available The fish kill in lake Peipsi (Estonia/Russia during the extraordinarily hot summer of 2010 evoked an investigation into the effects of environmental extremes and long-term eutrophication on the fish community of the lake. Current data on lake Peipsi indicate that temperature extremes and synergistic interactions with eutrophication have led to a radical restructuring of the fish community. Commercial landings of lake smelt, Osmerus eperlanus eperlanus m. spirinchus (Pallas, the previous dominant species of the fish community, have decreased dramatically since the 1930s, these declines being coupled with summer heat waves coinciding with low water levels. Gradual decline in smelt stock and catches was significantly related to a decline of near-bottom oxygen conditions and to a decrease in water transparency. The first documented fish kill in 1959 occurred only in the southern, most shallow and eutrophic lake (lake Pihkva. Recently, summer fish kill have become more frequent, involving larger areas of the lake. In addition to the cold-water species, e.g. smelt and vendace Coregonus albula (L., the abundance of bottom-dwelling fishes such as ruffe Gymnocephalus cernuus (L. and juvenile fish have significantly decreased after the 2010 heat wave probably due to hypoxia and warm water temperatures. This study showed that fish community structure in large shallow lakes may be very vulnerable to water temperature increases, especially temperature extremes in combination with eutrophication.

  1. Climate adaption and post-fire restoration of a foundational perennial in cold desert: Insights from intraspecific variation in response to weather (United States)

    Brabec, Martha M.; Germino, Matthew; Richardson, Bryce A.


    1.The loss of foundational but fire-intolerant perennials such as sagebrush due to increases in fire size and frequency in semiarid regions has motivated efforts to restore them, often with mixed or even no success. Seeds of sagebrush Artemisia tridentata and related species must be moved considerable distances from seed source to planting sites, but such transfers have not been guided by an understanding of local climate adaptation. Initial seedling establishment and its response to weather are a key demographic bottleneck that likely varies among subspecies and populations of sagebrush. 2.We assessed differences in survival, growth, and physiological responses of sagebrush to weather among eleven seed sources that varied in subspecies, cytotype, and climates-of-origin over 18 months following outplanting. Diploid or polyploid populations of mountain, Wyoming, and basin big sagebrush (A.tridentata ssp. vaseyana, A.tridentata ssp. wyomingensis, and A.tridentata ssp. tridentata, respectively) were planted onto five burned sites that normally support A.t.wyomingensis with some A.t.tridentata. 3.A.t.wyomingensis had the most growth and survival, and tetraploid populations had greater survival and height than diploids. Seasonal timing of mortality varied among the subspecies/cytotypes and was more closely related to minimum temperatures than water deficit. 4.Temperatures required to induce ice formation were up to 6°C more negative in 4n-A.t.tridentata and A.t.wyomingensis than other subspecies/cytotypes, indicating greater freezing avoidance. In contrast, freezing resistance of photosynthesis varied only 1°C among subspecies/cytotypes, being greatest in A.t.wyomingensis and least in the subspecies normally considered most cold-adapted,A.t.vaseyana. A large spectrum of reliance on freezing-avoidance vs. freezing-tolerance was observed and corresponded to differences in post-fire survivorship among subspecies/cytotypes. Differences in water deficit

  2. Using Haines Index coupled with fire weather model predicted from high resolution LAM forecasts to asses wildfire extreme behaviour in Southern Europe. (United States)

    Gaetani, Francesco; Baptiste Filippi, Jean; Simeoni, Albert; D'Andrea, Mirko


    Haines Index (HI) was developed by USDA Forest Service to measure the atmosphere's contribution to the growth potential of a wildfire. The Haines Index combines two atmospheric factors that are known to have an effect on wildfires: Stability and Dryness. As operational tools, HI proved its ability to predict plume dominated high intensity wildfires. However, since HI does not take into account the fuel continuity, composition and moisture conditions and the effects of wind and topography on fire behaviour, its use as forecasting tool should be carefully considered. In this work we propose the use of HI, predicted from HR Limited Area Model forecasts, coupled with a Fire Weather model (i.e., RISICO system) fully operational in Italy since 2003. RISICO is based on dynamic models able to represent in space and in time the effects that environment and vegetal physiology have on fuels and, in turn, on the potential behaviour of wildfires. The system automatically acquires from remote databases a thorough data-set of input information both of in situ and spatial nature. Meteorological observations, radar data, Limited Area Model weather forecasts, EO data, and fuel data are managed by a Unified Interface able to process a wide set of different data. Specific semi-physical models are used in the system to simulate the dynamics of the fuels (load and moisture contents of dead and live fuel) and the potential fire behaviour (rate of spread and linear intensity). A preliminary validation of this approach will be provided with reference to Sardinia and Corsica Islands, two major islands of the Mediterranean See frequently affected by extreme plume dominated wildfires. A time series of about 3000 wildfires burnt in Sardinia and Corsica in 2007 and 2008 will be used to evaluate the capability of HI coupled with the outputs of the Fire Weather model to forecast the actual risk in time and in space.

  3. When truth is personally inconvenient, attitudes change: the impact of extreme weather on implicit support for green politicians and explicit climate-change beliefs. (United States)

    Rudman, Laurie A; McLean, Meghan C; Bunzl, Martin


    A naturalistic investigation of New Jersey residents, both before and after they experienced Hurricanes Irene and Sandy, examined support for politicians committed or opposed to policies designed to combat climate change. At Time 1, before both hurricanes, participants showed negative implicit attitudes toward a green politician, but at Time 2, after the hurricanes, participants drawn from the same cohort showed a reversed automatic preference. Moreover, those who were significantly affected by Hurricane Sandy were especially likely to implicitly prefer the green politician, and implicit attitudes were the best predictor of voting after the storms, whereas explicit climate-change beliefs was the best predictor before the storms. In concert, the results suggest that direct experience with extreme weather can increase pro-environmentalism, and further support conceptualizing affective experiences as a source of implicit attitudes.

  4. Impacts of extreme weather events and climate variability on carbon exchanges in an age-sequence of managed temperate pine forests from 2003 to 201 (United States)

    Arain, M. A.


    North American temperate forests are a critical component of the global carbon cycle and regional water resources. A large portion of these forests has traditionally been managed for timber production and other uses. The response of these forests, which are in different stages of development, to extreme weather events such as drought and heat stresses, climate variability and management regimes is not fully understood. In this study, eddy covariance flux measurements in an age sequence (77-, 42-, and 14-years old as of 2016) of white pine (Pinus strobus L.) plantation forests in southern Ontario, Canada are examined to determine the impact of heat and drought stresses and climate variability over a 14 year period (2003 to 2016). The mean annual net ecosystem productivity (NEP) values were 195 ± 87, 512 ±161 and 103 ± 103 g C m-2 year-1 in 77-, 42- and 14-year-old forests respectively, over the study period. The youngest forest became a net carbon sink in the fifth year of its growth. Air temperature was a dominant control on carbon fluxes and heat stress reduced photosynthesis much more as compared to ecosystem respiration in the growing season. A large decrease in annual NEP was observed during years experiencing heat waves. Drought stress had the strongest impact on the middle age forest which had the largest carbon sink and water demand. In contrast, young forest was more sensitive to heat stress, than drought. Severity of heat and drought stress impacts was highly dependent on the timing of these events. Simultaneous occurrence of heat and drought stress in the early growing season such as in 2012 and 2016 had a drastic negative impact on carbon balance in these forests due to plant-soil-atmosphere feedbacks. Future research should consider the timing of the extreme events, the stage of forest development and effects of extreme events on component fluxes. This research helps to assess the vulnerability of managed forests and their ecological and hydrological

  5. The Response of Different Audiences to Place-based Communication about the Role of Climate Change in Extreme Weather Events (United States)

    Halperin, A.; Walton, P.


    As the science of extreme event attribution grows, there is an increasing need to understand how the public responds to this type of climate change communication. Extreme event attribution has the unprecedented potential to locate the effects of climate change in the here and now, but there is little information about how different facets of the public might respond to these local framings of climate change. Drawing on theories of place attachment and psychological distance, this paper explores how people with different beliefs and values shift their willingness to mitigate and adapt to climate change in response to local or global communication of climate change impacts. Results will be presented from a recent survey of over 600 Californians who were each presented with one of three experimental conditions: 1) a local framing of the role of climate change in the California drought 2) a global framing of climate change and droughts worldwide, or 3) a control condition of no text. Participants were categorized into groups based on their prior beliefs about climate change according to the Six Americas classification scheme (Leiserowitz et al., 2011). The results from the survey in conjunction with qualitative results from follow-up interviews shed insight into the importance of place in communicating climate change for people in each of the Six Americas. Additional results examine the role of gender and political affiliation in mediating responses to climate change communication. Despite research that advocates unequivocally for local framing of climate change, this study offers a more nuanced perspective of under which circumstances extreme event attribution might be an effective tool for changing behaviors. These results could be useful for scientists who wish to gain a better understanding of how their event attribution research is perceived or for educators who want to target their message to audiences where it could have the most impact.

  6. Trends and Extremes Analysis of Daily Weather Data from a Site in the Capitanata Plain (Southern Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Domenico Vitale


    Full Text Available The impacts of the climate change for agriculture is an ambitious and unresolved topic due to the complexity of the natural phenomena. The high variability of the Mediterranean basin does not allow us to generalize with enough certainty the results obtained from other researches and other locations. Therefore, a site specific analysis in Capitanata plain was conducted. The aim is to provide a detailed picture of recent change in climate regime in one of the most important agricultural area of South Italy. Climate analysis was carried out and several indices of extreme events were studied on the basis of temperature and precipitation observations registered at experimental station ‘Podere 124’ (CRA-SCA. The period under study is 1979-2008. Increasing trends were identified for the summer season with an intensification of the number of heat waves.

  7. Development of a site specific dynamical tropical cyclone and other extreme weather early warning system for Kalpakkam

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramakrishna, S.S.V.S.; Bhaskar Rao, D.V.; Venkata Srinivas, C.; Venkatesan, R.; Srivastav, Rupa


    The project was to study the tropical cyclones over Bay of Bengal for the south east coast region in the neighbourhood of Kalpakkam, with the main objectives of developing a methodology for providing early warning of developing storms for Kalpakkam site region based on numerical methods. The main objectives of the project are to develop a numerical modeling system for the forecasting of cyclonic storms that form in the Bay of Bengal and cross the east coast of Kalpakkam. the model performance with respect to the intensity (extreme winds), rainfall and the movement of the storm will be assessed for a number of past cyclonic storms in the region and simulations will focus on the identification of proper model configuration in terms of horizontal/vertical resolutions and physics parameterizations for deriving best predictions and to implement the same for operations forecasting for the Kalpakkam site in Tamil Nadu

  8. Restructuring Big Data to Improve Data Access and Performance in Analytic Services Making Research More Efficient for the Study of Extreme Weather Events and Application User Communities (United States)

    Ostrenga, D.; Shen, S.; Vollmer, B.; Meyer, D. L.


    NASA climate reanalysis dataset from MERRA-2 contains numerous data for atmosphere, land, and ocean, that are grouped into 95 products of archived volume over 300 TB. The data files are saved as hourly-file, day-file (hourly time interval) and month-file containing up to 125 parameters. Due to the large number of data files and the sheer data volumes, it is a challenging for users, especially those in the application research community, to handle dealing with the original data files. Most of these researchers prefer to focus on a small region or single location using the hourly data for long time periods to analyze extreme weather events or say winds for renewable energy applications. At the GES DISC, we have been working closely with the science teams and the application user community to create several new value added data products and high quality services to facilitate the use of the model data for various types of research. We have tested converting hourly data from one-day per file into different data cubes, such as one-month, one-year, or whole-mission and then continued to analyze the efficiency of the accessibility of this newly structured data through various services. Initial results have shown that compared to the original file structure, the new data has significantly improved the performance for accessing long time series. It is noticed that the performance is associated to the cube size and structure, the compression method, and how the data are accessed. The optimized data cube structure will not only improve the data access, but also enable better online analytic services for doing statistical analysis and extreme events mining. Two case studies will be presented using the newly structured data and value added services, the California drought and the extreme drought of the Northeastern states of Brazil. Furthermore, data access and analysis through cloud storage capabilities will be investigated.

  9. Air-cooled LiBr-water absorption chillers for solar air conditioning in extremely hot weathers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, D.S.; Infante Ferreira, C.A.


    A low temperature-driven absorption cycle is theoretically investigated for the development of an air-cooled LiBr-water absorption chiller to be combined with low-cost flat solar collectors for solar air conditioning in hot and dry regions. The cycle works with dilute LiBr-water solutions so that risk of LiBr crystallization is less than for commercially available water-cooled LiBr-water absorption chillers even in extremely hot ambient conditions. Two-phase heat exchangers in the system were modelled taking account of the heat and mass transfer resistances in falling film flows by applying the film theory in thermal and concentration boundary layers. Both directly and indirectly air-cooled chillers were modelled by properly combining component models and boundary conditions in a matrix system and solved with an algebraic equation solver. Simulation results predict that the chillers would deliver chilled water around 7.0 deg. C with a COP of 0.37 from 90 deg. C hot water under 35 deg. C ambient condition. At 50 deg. C ambient temperature, the chillers retained about 36% of their cooling power at 35 deg. C ambient. Compared with the directly air-cooled chiller, the indirectly air-cooled chiller presented a cooling power performance reduction of about 30%

  10. Differential response of vegetation in Hulun Lake region at the northern margin of Asian summer monsoon to extreme cold events of the last deglaciation (United States)

    Zhang, Shengrui; Xiao, Jule; Xu, Qinghai; Wen, Ruilin; Fan, Jiawei; Huang, Yun; Yamagata, Hideki


    The response of vegetation to extreme cold events during the last deglaciation is important for assessing the impact of possible extreme climatic events on terrestrial ecosystems under future global warming scenarios. Here, we present a detailed record of the development of regional vegetation in the northern margin of Asian summer monsoon during the last deglaciation (16,500-11,000 cal yr BP) based on a radiocarbon-dated high-resolution pollen record from Hulun Lake, northeast China. The results show that the regional vegetation changed from subalpine meadow-desert steppe to mixed coniferous and deciduous forest-typical steppe during the last deglaciation. However, its responses to the Heinrich event 1 (H1) and the Younger Dryas event (YD) were significantly different: during the H1 event, scattered sparse forest was present in the surrounding mountains, while within the lake catchment the vegetation cover was poor and was dominated by desert steppe. In contrast, during the YD event, deciduous forest developed and the proportion of coniferous forest increased in the mountains, the lake catchment was occupied by typical steppe. We suggest that changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation and land surface conditions (ice sheets and sea level) caused temperature and monsoonal precipitation variations that contributed to the contrasting vegetation response during the two cold events. We conclude that under future global warming scenarios, extreme climatic events may cause a deterioration of the ecological environment of the Hulun Lake region, resulting in increased coniferous forest and decreased total forest cover in the surrounding mountains, and a reduction in typical steppe in the lake catchment.

  11. Global predictability of temperature extremes (United States)

    Coughlan de Perez, Erin; van Aalst, Maarten; Bischiniotis, Konstantinos; Mason, Simon; Nissan, Hannah; Pappenberger, Florian; Stephens, Elisabeth; Zsoter, Ervin; van den Hurk, Bart


    Extreme temperatures are one of the leading causes of death and disease in both developed and developing countries, and heat extremes are projected to rise in many regions. To reduce risk, heatwave plans and cold weather plans have been effectively implemented around the world. However, much of the world’s population is not yet protected by such systems, including many data-scarce but also highly vulnerable regions. In this study, we assess at a global level where such systems have the potential to be effective at reducing risk from temperature extremes, characterizing (1) long-term average occurrence of heatwaves and coldwaves, (2) seasonality of these extremes, and (3) short-term predictability of these extreme events three to ten days in advance. Using both the NOAA and ECMWF weather forecast models, we develop global maps indicating a first approximation of the locations that are likely to benefit from the development of seasonal preparedness plans and/or short-term early warning systems for extreme temperature. The extratropics generally show both short-term skill as well as strong seasonality; in the tropics, most locations do also demonstrate one or both. In fact, almost 5 billion people live in regions that have seasonality and predictability of heatwaves and/or coldwaves. Climate adaptation investments in these regions can take advantage of seasonality and predictability to reduce risks to vulnerable populations.

  12. Influence of limit-feeding and time of day of feed availability to growing calves on growth performance and feeding behavior in cold weather. (United States)

    Prezotto, L D; Gilbery, T C; Bauer, M L; Islas, A; Swanson, K C


    Objective swere to determine the effects of limit-feeding and time of feed access in cold weather on growth performance and feeding behavior of growing calves fed a corn silage-based diet. Sixty-six steers (BW = 317 ± 5.3 kg) and 30 heifers (BW = 239 ± 7.6 kg) were assigned randomly to dietary treatment: 1) ad libitum feed intake (AL), 2) limit-fed to 80% of the average DMI of the AL group on a BW basis in the daytime (0601-1759 h; LF-D), 3) limit-fed to 80% of the average DMI of the AL group on a BW basis in the nighttime (1800-0559 h; LF-N), and 4) limit-fed to 80% of the average DMI of the AL group on a BW basis, split 1/2 in the daytime and 1/2 in the nighttime (LF-S). Feed intake and feeding behavior were monitored over 84 d using the Insentec feeding system. Average daily gain, DMI, and G:F were greater ( ≤ 0.002) in the AL group compared with others. Dry matter intake was not different ( = 0.17) when comparing the LF-D with the LF-N groups. Average daily gain and G:F were greater ( ≤ 0.05) when comparing the LF-N group to the LF-D group, and were not different ( ≥ 0.51) when comparing the LF-S group with the mean of the LF-D and LF-N groups. Number of visits and meals per d was greater ( ≤ 0.001) in the LF-N than the LF-D group. Feed intake per visit was not different ( = 0.55) when comparing the AL group and others, and tended to be greater ( = 0.06) in the LF-D than the LF-N group. Feed intake per meal was greater ( Feed intake per minute (eating rate) was not influenced by treatment. In conclusion, limit-feeding at 80% of ad libitum intake decreased ADG and G:F. Limit-feeding in the nighttime as compared to limit-feeding in the daytime improves growth performance and increases feeding activity (number of visits and meals per d) which could be because of increased heat production to help maintain body temperature and thus reduce maintenance energy requirements.

  13. Temporal Changes in Mortality Related to Extreme Temperatures for 15 Cities in Northeast Asia: Adaptation to Heat and Maladaptation to Cold. (United States)

    Chung, Yeonseung; Noh, Heesang; Honda, Yasushi; Hashizume, Masahiro; Bell, Michelle L; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Kim, Ho


    Understanding how the temperature-mortality association worldwide changes over time is crucial to addressing questions of human adaptation under climate change. Previous studies investigated the temporal changes in the association over a few discrete time frames or assumed a linear change. Also, most studies focused on attenuation of heat-related mortality and studied the United States or Europe. This research examined continuous temporal changes (potentially nonlinear) in mortality related to extreme temperature (both heat and cold) for 15 cities in Northeast Asia (1972-2009). We used a generalized linear model with splines to simultaneously capture 2 types of nonlinearity: nonlinear association between temperature and mortality and nonlinear change over time in the association. We combined city-specific results to generate country-specific results using Bayesian hierarchical modeling. Cold-related mortality remained roughly constant over decades and slightly increased in the late 2000s, with a larger increase for cardiorespiratory deaths than for deaths from other causes. Heat-related mortality rates have decreased continuously over time, with more substantial decrease in earlier decades, for older populations and for cardiorespiratory deaths. Our findings suggest that future assessment of health effects of climate change should account for the continuous changes in temperature-related health risk and variations by factors such as age, cause of death, and location. © Crown copyright 2017.

  14. Extreme winter warming events more negatively impact small rather than large soil fauna: shift in community composition explained by traits not taxa.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bokhorst, S.F.; Phoenix, G.K.; Bjerke, J.W.; Callaghan, T.V.; Huyer-Brugman, F.A.; Berg, M.P.


    Extreme weather events can have negative impacts on species survival and community structure when surpassing lethal thresholds. Extreme winter warming events in the Arctic rapidly melt snow and expose ecosystems to unseasonably warm air (2-10 °C for 2-14 days), but returning to cold winter climate

  15. Tales of future weather

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hazeleger, W.; Van den Hurk, B.J.J.M.; Min, E.; Van Oldenborgh, G.J.; Petersen, A.C.; Stainforth, D.A.; Vasileiadou, E.; Smith, L.A.


    Society is vulnerable to extreme weather events and, by extension, to human impacts on future events. As climate changes weather patterns will change. The search is on for more effective methodologies to aid decision-makers both in mitigation to avoid climate change and in adaptation to changes. The

  16. Winter Weather Frequently Asked Questions (United States)

    ... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

  17. The influence of weather on health-related help-seeking behavior of senior citizens in Hong Kong (United States)

    Wong, Ho Ting; Chiu, Marcus Yu Lung; Wu, Cynthia Sau Ting; Lee, Tsz Cheung


    It is believed that extreme hot and cold weather has a negative impact on general health conditions. Much research focuses on mortality, but there is relatively little community health research. This study is aimed at identifying high-risk groups who are sensitive to extreme weather conditions, in particular, very hot and cold days, through an analysis of the health-related help-seeking patterns of over 60,000 Personal Emergency Link (PE-link) users in Hong Kong relative to weather conditions. In the study, 1,659,716 PE-link calls to the help center were analyzed. Results showed that females, older elderly, people who did not live alone, non-subsidized (relatively high-income) users, and those without medical histories of heart disease, hypertension, stroke, and diabetes were more sensitive to extreme weather condition. The results suggest that using official government weather forecast reports to predict health-related help-seeking behavior is feasible. An evidence-based strategic plan could be formulated by using a method similar to that used in this study to identify high-risk groups. Preventive measures could be established for protecting the target groups when extreme weather conditions are forecasted.

  18. “100 percent fun”: A case study of benefits from cold water surfing in Jæren, Norway


    Elmahdy, Yasmine Mounir


    Master's thesis in International hotel and tourism management Norway is steadily progressing towards being a popular cold-water surf destination. The long Norwegian coastline is attracting an increasing number of surfers who surf year round in extreme weather conditions. The aim of this research is to identify the benefits acquired by Norwegian surfers surfing in cold water along the Jæren coast, south the city of Stavanger in Norway. This research adopted a phenomenological approach and q...

  19. Computer system for the assessment of radiation situation in the cases of radiological accidents and extreme weather conditions in the Chernobyl exclusion zone

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Talerko, M.; Garger, E.; Kuzmenko, A. [Institute for Safety Problems of Nuclear Power Plants (Ukraine)


    Radiation situation within the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone (ChEZ) is determined by high radionuclides contamination of the land surface formed after the 1986 accident, as well as the presence of a number of potentially hazardous objects (the 'Shelter' object, the Interim Spent Nuclear Fuel Dry Storage Facility ISF-1, radioactive waste disposal sites, radioactive waste temporary localization sites etc.). The air concentration of radionuclides over the ChEZ territory and radiation exposure of personnel are influenced by natural and anthropogenic factors: variable weather conditions, forest fires, construction and excavation activity etc. The comprehensive radiation monitoring and early warning system in the ChEZ was established under financial support of European Commission in 2011. It involves the computer system developed for assessment and prediction of radiological emergencies consequences in the ChEZ ensuring the protection of personnel and the population living near its borders. The system assesses radiation situation under both normal conditions in the ChEZ and radiological emergencies which result in considerable radionuclides emission into the air (accidents at radiation hazardous objects, extreme weather conditions). Three different types of radionuclides release sources can be considered in the software package. So it is based on a set of different models of emission, atmospheric transport and deposition of radionuclides: 1) mesoscale model of radionuclide atmospheric transport LEDI for calculations of the radionuclides emission from stacks and buildings; 2) model of atmospheric transport and deposition of radionuclides due to anthropogenic resuspension from contaminated area (area surface source model) as a result of construction and excavation activity, heavy traffic etc.; 3) model of resuspension, atmospheric transport and deposition of radionuclides during grassland and forest fires in the ChEZ. The system calculates the volume and surface

  20. The genomic sequence of Exiguobacterium chiriqhucha str. N139 reveals a species that thrives in cold waters and extreme environmental conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Gutiérrez-Preciado


    Full Text Available We report the genome sequence of Exiguobacterium chiriqhucha str. N139, isolated from a high-altitude Andean lake. Comparative genomic analyses of the Exiguobacterium genomes available suggest that our strain belongs to the same species as the previously reported E. pavilionensis str. RW-2 and Exiguobacterium str. GIC 31. We describe this species and propose the chiriqhucha name to group them. ‘Chiri qhucha’ in Quechua means ‘cold lake’, which is a common origin of these three cosmopolitan Exiguobacteria. The 2,952,588-bp E. chiriqhucha str. N139 genome contains one chromosome and three megaplasmids. The genome analysis of the Andean strain suggests the presence of enzymes that confer E. chiriqhucha str. N139 the ability to grow under multiple environmental extreme conditions, including high concentrations of different metals, high ultraviolet B radiation, scavenging for phosphorous and coping with high salinity. Moreover, the regulation of its tryptophan biosynthesis suggests that novel pathways remain to be discovered, and that these pathways might be fundamental in the amino acid metabolism of the microbial community from Laguna Negra, Argentina.

  1. Evaluating the quality and usability of crowdsourced weather data (United States)

    Koole, Martijn; Siegmund, Peter


    In April 2015 the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) launched the Weather Observations Website (WOW-NL, in the Netherlands in cooperation with the UK Met Office, who launched a similar WOW-UK website in 2011. WOW-NL functions as a platform to collect weather data that is measured by amateurs or organizations who own an automatic weather station. Such data can be used to increase the spatial and temporal resolution of existing observation networks. This can be meaningful for better understanding of e.g. urban climate (urban heat islands) and the occurrence of extreme meteorological events. In November 2015 the number of Dutch participants of WOW-NL was approximately 250. The following meteorological parameters are uploaded to the website every 10 minutes: air temperature, air pressure, rainfall rate, humidity, wind speed and wind direction. To get an idea about the location and environment at which the weather stations are placed, participants are asked to rate their station based on exposure, type of devices used and the level of urbanization. They can also specify the elevation and add a short description of the equipment that is used. This study examines the quality of the crowd-sourced weather data by using interpolated weather data that is measured at official weather stations that are operated by KNMI. Measurements at amateur stations are compared with the interpolated measurements and differences are explained using the metadata that the participants specified. A number of days is selected where interesting meteorological situations occurred, such as extremely hot weather, cold fronts, rain fronts or heavy winds. Based on this, recommendations are presented about possible applications of crowd-sourced weather data with respect to the quality level.

  2. Butterflies, Black swans and Dragon kings: How to use the Dynamical Systems Theory to build a "zoology" of mid-latitude circulation atmospheric extremes? (United States)

    Faranda, D.; Yiou, P.; Alvarez-Castro, M. C. M.


    A combination of dynamical systems and statistical techniques allows for a robust assessment of the dynamical properties of the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation. Extremes at different spatial and time scales are not only associated to exceptionally intense weather structures (e.g. extra-tropical cyclones) but also to rapid changes of circulation regimes (thunderstorms, supercells) or the extreme persistence of weather structure (heat waves, cold spells). We will show how the dynamical systems theory of recurrence combined to the extreme value theory can take into account the spatial and temporal dependence structure of the mid-latitude circulation structures and provide information on the statistics of extreme events.

  3. Communication on urban resilience to extreme weather: challenges and achievements in the dialogue between the international scientific community and local stakeholders (United States)

    Vicari, Rosa; Gires, Auguste; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel


    The frequency and damages caused by pluvial floods in European cities are expected to increase as a consequence of climate change and urban development. New solutions are needed at local level to cope with extreme storm events and to reduce risks and costs on populations and infrastructures, in particular in disadvantaged urban areas. The HM&Co team (LEESU & Chair 'Hydrology for Resilient Cities' sponsored by Veolia) aims to develop resilient urban systems with the help of innovative technologies, tools and practices based in particular on the use of high-resolution data, simulations, forecasts and management. Indeed, the availability of fine-scale rainfall data, due to the improved reliability of recent low-cost weather radars, opens up prospects for new forms of local urban flood risk management, which requires exchange of information with local actors and their full cooperation with researchers. This demands a large collaboration ranging from regional to international levels, e.g. the RadX@IdF project (Regional Council of Paris Region), the RainGain project (EU Interreg programme) and Blue Green Dream project (Climate-KIC programme), TOMACS (World Meteorological Organisation). These research projects and programmes include awareness raising and capacity building activities aimed to stimulate cooperation between scientists, professionals (e.g. water managers, urban planners) and beneficiaries (e.g. concerned citizens, policy makers). A dialogue between these actors is indeed needed to bring together the know-how from different countries and areas of expertise, avoid fragmentation and link it to the needs of the local stakeholders. Without this "conductive environment", research results risk to remain unexploited. After a general description of the background communication needs, this presentation will illustrate the outreach practices that are carried out by the HM&Co team. The major challenges will be also discussed, some examples are: narrating research

  4. The More Extreme Nature of North American Monsoon Precipitation in the Southwestern United States as Revealed by a Historical Climatology of Simulated Severe Weather Events

    KAUST Repository

    Luong, Thang M.; Castro, Christopher L.; Chang, Hsin-I; Lahmers, Timothy; Adams, David K.; Ochoa-Moya, Carlos A.


    Long-term changes in North American monsoon (NAM) precipitation intensity in the southwestern United States are evaluated through the use of convective-permitting model simulations of objectively identified severe weather events during

  5. The More Extreme Nature of North American Monsoon Precipitation in the Southwestern United States as Revealed by a Historical Climatology of Simulated Severe Weather Events

    KAUST Repository

    Luong, Thang M.


    Long-term changes in North American monsoon (NAM) precipitation intensity in the southwestern United States are evaluated through the use of convective-permitting model simulations of objectively identified severe weather events during

  6. Extreme Weather Years Drive Episodic Acidification and Brownification in Lakes in the Northeast US: Implications for Long-term Shifts in Dissolved Organic Carbon, Water Clarity, and Thermal Structure (United States)

    Strock, K.; Saros, J. E.


    Interannual climate variability is expected to increase over the next century, but the extent to which hydroclimatic variability influences biogeochemical processes is unclear. To determine the effects of extreme weather on surface water chemistry, a 30-year record of surface water geochemistry for 84 lakes in the northeastern U.S. was combined with landscape data and watershed-specific weather data. With these data, responses in sulfate and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations were characterized during extreme wet and extreme dry conditions. Episodic acidification during drought and episodic brownification (increased DOC) during wet years were detected broadly across the northeastern U.S. Episodic chemical response was linearly related to wetland coverage in lake watersheds only during extreme wet years. The results of a redundancy analysis suggest that topographic features also need to be considered and that the interplay between wetlands and their degree of connectivity to surface waters could be driving episodic acidification in this region. A subset of lakes located in Acadia National Park, Maine U.S.A. were studied to better understand the implications of regional increases of DOC in lakes. Water transparency declined across six study sites since 1995 as DOC increased. As clarity declined, some lakes experienced reduced epilimnion thickness. The degree to which transparency changed across the lakes was dependent on DOC concentration, with a larger decline in transparency occurring in clear water lakes than brown water lakes. The results presented here help to clarify the variability observed in long-term recovery from acidification and regional increases in DOC. Specifically, an increased frequency of extreme wet years may be contributing to a recent acceleration in the recovery of lake ecosystems from acidification; however, increased frequency of wet years may also lead to reduced water clarity and altered physical lake habitat. Clarifying the

  7. Weather elements, chemical air pollutants and airborne pollen influencing asthma emergency room visits in Szeged, Hungary: performance of two objective weather classifications. (United States)

    Makra, László; Puskás, János; Matyasovszky, István; Csépe, Zoltán; Lelovics, Enikő; Bálint, Beatrix; Tusnády, Gábor


    Weather classification approaches may be useful tools in modelling the occurrence of respiratory diseases. The aim of the study is to compare the performance of an objectively defined weather classification and the Spatial Synoptic Classification (SSC) in classifying emergency department (ED) visits for acute asthma depending from weather, air pollutants, and airborne pollen variables for Szeged, Hungary, for the 9-year period 1999-2007. The research is performed for three different pollen-related periods of the year and the annual data set. According to age and gender, nine patient categories, eight meteorological variables, seven chemical air pollutants, and two pollen categories were used. In general, partly dry and cold air and partly warm and humid air aggravate substantially the symptoms of asthmatics. Our major findings are consistent with this establishment. Namely, for the objectively defined weather types favourable conditions for asthma ER visits occur when an anticyclonic ridge weather situation happens with near extreme temperature and humidity parameters. Accordingly, the SSC weather types facilitate aggravating asthmatic conditions if warm or cool weather occur with high humidity in both cases. Favourable conditions for asthma attacks are confirmed in the extreme seasons when atmospheric stability contributes to enrichment of air pollutants. The total efficiency of the two classification approaches is similar in spite of the fact that the methodology for derivation of the individual types within the two classification approaches is completely different.

  8. Weather In Some Islands

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)



    There are four seasons in a year. When spring comes, the weather is mild(温和的). Summer comes after spring. Summer is the hottest season of the year. Autumn follows summer. It is the best season of the year. Winter is the coldest season of the year. Some islands(岛) have their own particular(特别的) seasons because their weather is very much affected(影响) by the oceans(海洋) around them. In Britain, winter is not very cold and summer is not very hot.

  9. The impact of reflectivity correction and conversion methods to improve precipitation estimation by weather radar for an extreme low-land Mesoscale Convective System (United States)

    Hazenberg, Pieter; Leijnse, Hidde; Uijlenhoet, Remko


    Between 25 and 27 August 2010 a long-duration mesoscale convective system was observed above the Netherlands. For most of the country this led to over 15 hours of near-continuous precipitation, which resulted in total event accumulations exceeding 150 mm in the eastern part of the Netherlands. Such accumulations belong to the largest sums ever recorded in this country and gave rise to local flooding. Measuring precipitation by weather radar within such mesoscale convective systems is known to be a challenge, since measurements are affected by multiple sources of error. For the current event the operational weather radar rainfall product only estimated about 30% of the actual amount of precipitation as measured by rain gauges. In the current presentation we will try to identify what gave rise to such large underestimations. In general weather radar measurement errors can be subdivided into two different groups: 1) errors affecting the volumetric reflectivity measurements taken, and 2) errors related to the conversion of reflectivity values in rainfall intensity and attenuation estimates. To correct for the first group of errors, the quality of the weather radar reflectivity data was improved by successively correcting for 1) clutter and anomalous propagation, 2) radar calibration, 3) wet radome attenuation, 4) signal attenuation and 5) the vertical profile of reflectivity. Such consistent corrections are generally not performed by operational meteorological services. Results show a large improvement in the quality of the precipitation data, however still only ~65% of the actual observed accumulations was estimated. To further improve the quality of the precipitation estimates, the second group of errors are corrected for by making use of disdrometer measurements taken in close vicinity of the radar. Based on these data the parameters of a normalized drop size distribution are estimated for the total event as well as for each precipitation type separately (convective

  10. Assessing the role of farm-level adaptation in limiting the local economic impacts of more frequent extreme weather events in Dutch arable farming systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Diogo, V.; Reidsma, P.; Schaap, B.; Koomen, E.; Fodor, Nándor


    The expected increase in extreme events frequency is likely to considerably affect future crop productivity. Appropriate adaptation measures in agricultural systems should be identified according to the main climate risks expected in a region and taking into account the role of decisions made at the

  11. Increasing weather-related impacts on European population under climate and demographic change (United States)

    Forzieri, Giovanni; Cescatti, Alessandro; Batista e Silva, Filipe; Kovats, Sari R.; Feyen, Luc


    Over the last three decades the overwhelming majority of disasters have been caused by weather-related events. The observed rise in weather-related disaster losses has been largely attributed to increased exposure and to a lesser degree to global warming. Recent studies suggest an intensification in the climatology of multiple weather extremes in Europe over the coming decades in view of climate change, while urbanization continues. In view of these pressures, understanding and quantifying the potential impacts of extreme weather events on future societies is imperative in order to identify where and to what extent their livelihoods will be at risk in the future, and develop timely and effective adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies. Here we show a comprehensive assessment of single- and multi-hazard impacts on the European population until the year 2100. For this purpose, we developed a novel methodology that quantifies the human impacts as a multiplicative function of hazard, exposure and population vulnerability. We focus on seven of the most impacting weather-related hazards - including heat and cold waves, wildfires, droughts, river and coastal floods and windstorms - and evaluated their spatial and temporal variations in intensity and frequency under a business-as-usual climate scenario. Long-term demographic dynamics were modelled to assess exposure developments under a corresponding middle-of-the-road scenario. Vulnerability of humans to weather extremes was appraised based on more than 2300 records of weather-related disasters. The integration of these elements provides a range of plausible estimates of extreme weather-related risks for future European generations. Expected impacts on population are quantified in terms of fatalities and number of people exposed. We find a staggering rise in fatalities from extreme weather events, with the projected death toll by the end of the century amounting to more than 50 times the present number of people

  12. Municipalities' Preparedness for Weather Hazards and Response to Weather Warnings. (United States)

    Mehiriz, Kaddour; Gosselin, Pierre


    The study of the management of weather-related disaster risks by municipalities has attracted little attention even though these organizations play a key role in protecting the population from extreme meteorological conditions. This article contributes to filling this gap with new evidence on the level and determinants of Quebec municipalities' preparedness for weather hazards and response to related weather warnings. Using survey data from municipal emergency management coordinators and secondary data on the financial and demographic characteristics of municipalities, the study shows that most Quebec municipalities are sufficiently prepared for weather hazards and undertake measures to protect the population when informed of imminent extreme weather events. Significant differences between municipalities were noted though. Specifically, the level of preparedness was positively correlated with the municipalities' capacity and population support for weather-related disaster management policies. In addition, the risk of weather-related disasters increases the preparedness level through its effect on population support. We also found that the response to weather warnings depended on the risk of weather-related disasters, the preparedness level and the quality of weather warnings. These results highlight areas for improvement in the context of increasing frequency and/or severity of such events with current climate change.

  13. Long-Term Climate Trends and Extreme Events in Northern Fennoscandia (1914–2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonja Kivinen


    Full Text Available We studied climate trends and the occurrence of rare and extreme temperature and precipitation events in northern Fennoscandia in 1914–2013. Weather data were derived from nine observation stations located in Finland, Norway, Sweden and Russia. The results showed that spring and autumn temperatures and to a lesser extent summer temperatures increased significantly in the study region, the observed changes being the greatest for daily minimum temperatures. The number of frost days declined both in spring and autumn. Rarely cold winter, spring, summer and autumn seasons had a low occurrence and rarely warm spring and autumn seasons a high occurrence during the last 20-year interval (1994–2013, compared to the other 20-year intervals. That period was also characterized by a low number of days with extremely low temperature in all seasons (4–9% of all extremely cold days and a high number of April and October days with extremely high temperature (36–42% of all extremely warm days. A tendency of exceptionally high daily precipitation sums to grow even higher towards the end of the study period was also observed. To summarize, the results indicate a shortening of the cold season in northern Fennoscandia. Furthermore, the results suggest significant declines in extremely cold climate events in all seasons and increases in extremely warm climate events particularly in spring and autumn seasons.

  14. The effect of inclement weather on trauma orthopaedic workload.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cashman, J P


    BACKGROUND: Climate change models predict increasing frequency of extreme weather. One of the challenges hospitals face is how to make sure they have adequate staffing at various times of the year. AIMS: The aim of this study was to examine the effect of this severe inclement weather on hospital admissions, operative workload and cost in the Irish setting. We hypothesised that there is a direct relationship between cold weather and workload in a regional orthopaedic trauma unit. METHODS: Trauma orthopaedic workload in a regional trauma unit was examined over 2 months between December 2009 and January 2010. This corresponded with a period of severe inclement weather. RESULTS: We identified a direct correlation between the drop in temperature and increase in workload, with a corresponding increase in demand on resources. CONCLUSIONS: Significant cost savings could be made if these injuries were prevented. While the information contained in this study is important in the context of resource planning and staffing of hospital trauma units, it also highlights the vulnerability of the Irish population to wintery weather.

  15. Identification of large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation in the US northeast (United States)

    Agel, Laurie; Barlow, Mathew; Feldstein, Steven B.; Gutowski, William J.


    Patterns of daily large-scale circulation associated with Northeast US extreme precipitation are identified using both k-means clustering (KMC) and Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) applied to tropopause height. The tropopause height provides a compact representation of the upper-tropospheric potential vorticity, which is closely related to the overall evolution and intensity of weather systems. Extreme precipitation is defined as the top 1% of daily wet-day observations at 35 Northeast stations, 1979-2008. KMC is applied on extreme precipitation days only, while the SOM algorithm is applied to all days in order to place the extreme results into the overall context of patterns for all days. Six tropopause patterns are identified through KMC for extreme day precipitation: a summertime tropopause ridge, a summertime shallow trough/ridge, a summertime shallow eastern US trough, a deeper wintertime eastern US trough, and two versions of a deep cold-weather trough located across the east-central US. Thirty SOM patterns for all days are identified. Results for all days show that 6 SOM patterns account for almost half of the extreme days, although extreme precipitation occurs in all SOM patterns. The same SOM patterns associated with extreme precipitation also routinely produce non-extreme precipitation; however, on extreme precipitation days the troughs, on average, are deeper and the downstream ridges more pronounced. Analysis of other fields associated with the large-scale patterns show various degrees of anomalously strong moisture transport preceding, and upward motion during, extreme precipitation events.

  16. A possible cause of the AO polarity reversal from winter to summer in 2010 and its relation to hemispheric extreme summer weather (United States)

    Otomi, Yuriko; Tachibana, Yoshihiro; Nakamura, Tetsu


    In 2010, the Northern Hemisphere, in particular Russia and Japan, experienced an abnormally hot summer characterized by record-breaking warm temperatures and associated with a strongly positive Arctic Oscillation (AO), that is, low pressure in the Arctic and high pressure in the midlatitudes. In contrast, the AO index the previous winter and spring (2009/2010) was record-breaking negative. The AO polarity reversal that began in summer 2010 can explain the abnormally hot summer. The winter sea surface temperatures (SST) in the North Atlantic Ocean showed a tripolar anomaly pattern—warm SST anomalies over the tropics and high latitudes and cold SST anomalies over the midlatitudes—under the influence of the negative AO. The warm SST anomalies continued into summer 2010 because of the large oceanic heat capacity. A model simulation strongly suggested that the AO-related summertime North Atlantic oceanic warm temperature anomalies remotely caused blocking highs to form over Europe, which amplified the positive summertime AO. Thus, a possible cause of the AO polarity reversal might be the "memory" of the negative winter AO in the North Atlantic Ocean, suggesting an interseasonal linkage of the AO in which the oceanic memory of a wintertime negative AO induces a positive AO in the following summer. Understanding of this interseasonal linkage may aid in the long-term prediction of such abnormal summer events.

  17. Trends in extremes of temperature, dew point, and precipitation from long instrumental series from central Europe (United States)

    Kürbis, K.; Mudelsee, M.; Tetzlaff, G.; Brázdil, R.


    For the analysis of trends in weather extremes, we introduce a diagnostic index variable, the exceedance product, which combines intensity and frequency of extremes. We separate trends in higher moments from trends in mean or standard deviation and use bootstrap resampling to evaluate statistical significances. The application of the concept of the exceedance product to daily meteorological time series from Potsdam (1893 to 2005) and Prague-Klementinum (1775 to 2004) reveals that extremely cold winters occurred only until the mid-20th century, whereas warm winters show upward trends. These changes were significant in higher moments of the temperature distribution. In contrast, trends in summer temperature extremes (e.g., the 2003 European heatwave) can be explained by linear changes in mean or standard deviation. While precipitation at Potsdam does not show pronounced trends, dew point does exhibit a change from maximum extremes during the 1960s to minimum extremes during the 1970s.

  18. Wacky Weather (United States)

    Sabarre, Amy; Gulino, Jacqueline


    What do a leaf blower, water hose, fan, and ice cubes have in common? Ask the students who participated in an integrative science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (I-STEM) education unit, "Wacky Weather," and they will tell say "fun and severe weather"--words one might not have expected! The purpose of the unit…

  19. Weather Instruments. (United States)

    Brantley, L. Reed, Sr.; Demanche, Edna L.; Klemm, E. Barbara; Kyselka, Will; Phillips, Edwin A.; Pottenger, Francis M.; Yamamoto, Karen N.; Young, Donald B.

    This booklet presents some activities to measure various weather phenomena. Directions for constructing a weather station are included. Instruments including rain gauges, thermometers, wind vanes, wind speed devices, humidity devices, barometers, atmospheric observations, a dustfall jar, sticky-tape can, detection of gases in the air, and pH of…

  20. Cold-Weather Sports and Your Family (United States)

    ... Another good place to check is your state tourism bureau; these agencies usually have free brochures that ... site. Note: All information on KidsHealth® is for educational purposes only. For specific medical advice, diagnoses, and ...

  1. Impacts of Extreme Space Weather Events on Power Grid Infrastructure: Physics-Based Modelling of Geomagnetically-Induced Currents (GICs) During Carrington-Class Geomagnetic Storms (United States)

    Henderson, M. G.; Bent, R.; Chen, Y.; Delzanno, G. L.; Jeffery, C. A.; Jordanova, V. K.; Morley, S.; Rivera, M. K.; Toth, G.; Welling, D. T.; Woodroffe, J. R.; Engel, M.


    Large geomagnetic storms can have devastating effects on power grids. The largest geomagnetic storm ever recorded - called the Carrington Event - occurred in 1859 and produced Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) strong enough to set fires in telegraph offices. It has been estimated that if such a storm occurred today, it would have devastating, long-lasting effects on the North American power transmission infrastructure. Acutely aware of this imminent threat, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) was recently instructed to establish requirements for transmission system performance during geomagnetic disturbance (GMD) events and, although the benchmarks adopted were based on the best available data at the time, they suffer from a severely limited physical understanding of the behavior of GMDs and the resulting GICs for strong events. To rectify these deficiencies, we are developing a first-of-its-kind data-informed modelling capability that will provide transformational understanding of the underlying physical mechanisms responsible for the most harmful intense localized GMDs and their impacts on real power transmission networks. This work is being conducted in two separate modes of operation: (1) using historical, well-observed large storm intervals for which robust data-assimilation can be performed, and (2) extending the modelling into a predictive realm in order to assess impacts of poorly and/or never-before observed Carrington-class events. Results of this work are expected to include a potential replacement for the current NERC benchmarking methodology and the development of mitigation strategies in real power grid networks. We report on progress to date and show some preliminary results of modeling large (but not yet extreme) events.

  2. Effects of Extreme Temperatures on Cause-Specific Cardiovascular Mortality in China. (United States)

    Wang, Xuying; Li, Guoxing; Liu, Liqun; Westerdahl, Dane; Jin, Xiaobin; Pan, Xiaochuan


    Limited evidence is available for the effects of extreme temperatures on cause-specific cardiovascular mortality in China. We collected data from Beijing and Shanghai, China, during 2007-2009, including the daily mortality of cardiovascular disease, cerebrovascular disease, ischemic heart disease and hypertensive disease, as well as air pollution concentrations and weather conditions. We used Poisson regression with a distributed lag non-linear model to examine the effects of extremely high and low ambient temperatures on cause-specific cardiovascular mortality. For all cause-specific cardiovascular mortality, Beijing had stronger cold and hot effects than those in Shanghai. The cold effects on cause-specific cardiovascular mortality reached the strongest at lag 0-27, while the hot effects reached the strongest at lag 0-14. The effects of extremely low and high temperatures differed by mortality types in the two cities. Hypertensive disease in Beijing was particularly susceptible to both extremely high and low temperatures; while for Shanghai, people with ischemic heart disease showed the greatest relative risk (RRs = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.34) to extremely low temperature. People with hypertensive disease were particularly susceptible to extremely low and high temperatures in Beijing. People with ischemic heart disease in Shanghai showed greater susceptibility to extremely cold days.

  3. Effects of Extreme Temperatures on Cause-Specific Cardiovascular Mortality in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuying Wang


    Full Text Available Objective: Limited evidence is available for the effects of extreme temperatures on cause-specific cardiovascular mortality in China. Methods: We collected data from Beijing and Shanghai, China, during 2007–2009, including the daily mortality of cardiovascular disease, cerebrovascular disease, ischemic heart disease and hypertensive disease, as well as air pollution concentrations and weather conditions. We used Poisson regression with a distributed lag non-linear model to examine the effects of extremely high and low ambient temperatures on cause-specific cardiovascular mortality. Results: For all cause-specific cardiovascular mortality, Beijing had stronger cold and hot effects than those in Shanghai. The cold effects on cause-specific cardiovascular mortality reached the strongest at lag 0–27, while the hot effects reached the strongest at lag 0–14. The effects of extremely low and high temperatures differed by mortality types in the two cities. Hypertensive disease in Beijing was particularly susceptible to both extremely high and low temperatures; while for Shanghai, people with ischemic heart disease showed the greatest relative risk (RRs = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.34 to extremely low temperature. Conclusion: People with hypertensive disease were particularly susceptible to extremely low and high temperatures in Beijing. People with ischemic heart disease in Shanghai showed greater susceptibility to extremely cold days.

  4. Impacts of temperature extremes on cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in the Czech Republic (United States)

    Davídkovová, H.; Kyselý, J.; Plavcová, E.; Urban, A.; Kriz, B.; Kyncl, J.


    Elevated mortality associated with high ambient temperatures in summer represents one of the main impacts of weather extremes on human society. Increases in cardiovascular mortality during heat waves have been reported in many European countries; much less is known about which particular cardiovascular disorders are most affected during heat waves, and whether similar patterns are found for morbidity (hospital admissions). Relatively less understood is also cold-related mortality and morbidity in winter, when the relationships between weather and human health are more complex, less direct, and confounded by other factors such as epidemics of influenza/acute respiratory infections. The present study analyses relationships between temperature extremes and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. We make use of the datasets on hospital admissions and daily mortality in the population of the Czech Republic (about 10.3 million) over 1994-2009. The data have been standardized to remove the effects of the long-term trend and the seasonal and weekly cycles. Periods when the morbidity/mortality data were affected by epidemics of influenza and other acute respiratory infections have been removed from the analysis. We use analogous definitions for hot and cold spells based on quantiles of daily average temperature anomalies, which allows for a comparison of the findings for summer hot spells and winter cold spells. The main aims of the study are (i) to identify deviations of mortality and morbidity from the baseline associated with hot and cold spells, (ii) to compare the hot- and cold-spell effects for individual cardiovascular diseases (e.g. ischaemic heart disease I20-I25, cerebrovascular disease I60-I69, hypertension I10, aterosclerosis I70) and to identify those diagnoses that are most closely linked to temperature extremes, (iii) to identify population groups most vulnerable to temperature extremes, and (iv) to compare the links to temperature extremes for morbidity and

  5. Weather forecast

    CERN Document Server

    Courtier, P


    Weather prediction is performed using the numerical model of the atmosphere evolution.The evolution equations are derived from the Navier Stokes equation for the adiabatic part but the are very much complicated by the change of phase of water, the radiation porocess and the boundary layer.The technique used operationally is described. Weather prediction is an initial value problem and accurate initial conditions need to be specified. Due to the small number of observations available (105 ) as compared to the dimension of the model state variable (107),the problem is largely underdetermined. Techniques of optimal control and inverse problems are used and have been adapted to the large dimension of our problem. our problem.The at mosphere is a chaotic system; the implication for weather prediction is discussed. Ensemble prediction is used operationally and the technique for generating initial conditions which lead to a numerical divergence of the subsequent forecasts is described.

  6. The state of the warm and cold gas in the extreme starburst at the core of the Phoenix galaxy cluster (SPT-CLJ2344-4243)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDonald, Michael; Bautz, Marshall W.; Swinbank, Mark; Edge, Alastair C.; Hogan, Michael T.; Wilner, David J.; Bayliss, Matthew B.; Veilleux, Sylvain; Benson, Bradford A.; Marrone, Daniel P.; McNamara, Brian R.; Wei, Lisa H.


    We present new optical integral field spectroscopy (Gemini South) and submillimeter spectroscopy (Submillimeter Array) of the central galaxy in the Phoenix cluster (SPT-CLJ2344-4243). This cluster was previously reported to have a massive starburst (∼800 M ☉ yr –1 ) in the central, brightest cluster galaxy, most likely fueled by the rapidly cooling intracluster medium. These new data reveal a complex emission-line nebula, extending for >30 kpc from the central galaxy, detected at [O II]λλ3726, 3729, [O III]λλ4959, 5007, Hβ, Hγ, Hδ, [Ne III]λ3869, and He II λ4686. The total Hα luminosity, assuming Hα/Hβ = 2.85, is L Hα = 7.6 ± 0.4 ×10 43 erg s –1 , making this the most luminous emission-line nebula detected in the center of a cool core cluster. Overall, the relative fluxes of the low-ionization lines (e.g., [O II], Hβ) to the UV continuum are consistent with photoionization by young stars. In both the center of the galaxy and in a newly discovered highly ionized plume to the north of the galaxy, the ionization ratios are consistent with both shocks and active galactic nucleus (AGN) photoionization. We speculate that this extended plume may be a galactic wind, driven and partially photoionized by both the starburst and central AGN. Throughout the cluster we measure elevated high-ionization line ratios (e.g., He II/Hβ, [O III]/Hβ), coupled with an overall high-velocity width (FWHM ≳ 500 km s –1 ), suggesting that shocks are likely important throughout the interstellar medium of the central galaxy. These shocks are most likely driven by a combination of stellar winds from massive young stars, core-collapse supernovae, and the central AGN. In addition to the warm, ionized gas, we detect a substantial amount of cold, molecular gas via the CO(3-2) transition, coincident in position with the galaxy center. We infer a molecular gas mass of M H 2 = 2.2 ± 0.6 × 10 10 M ☉ , which implies that the starburst will consume its fuel in ∼30 Myr if

  7. Relationships between Long-Term Demography and Weather in a Sub-Arctic Population of Common Eider.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jón Einar Jónsson

    Full Text Available Effects of local weather on individuals and populations are key drivers of wildlife responses to climatic changes. However, studies often do not last long enough to identify weather conditions that influence demographic processes, or to capture rare but extreme weather events at appropriate scales. In Iceland, farmers collect nest down of wild common eider Somateria mollissima and many farmers count nests within colonies annually, which reflects annual variation in the number of breeding females. We collated these data for 17 colonies. Synchrony in breeding numbers was generally low between colonies. We evaluated 1 demographic relationships with weather in nesting colonies of common eider across Iceland during 1900-2007; and 2 impacts of episodic weather events (aberrantly cold seasons or years on subsequent breeding numbers. Except for episodic events, breeding numbers within a colony generally had no relationship to local weather conditions in the preceding year. However, common eider are sexually mature at 2-3 years of age and we found a 3-year time lag between summer weather and breeding numbers for three colonies, indicating a positive effect of higher pressure, drier summers for one colony, and a negative effect of warmer, calmer summers for two colonies. These findings may represent weather effects on duckling production and subsequent recruitment. Weather effects were mostly limited to a few aberrant years causing reductions in breeding numbers, i.e. declines in several colonies followed severe winters (1918 and some years with high NAO (1992, 1995. In terms of life history, adult survival generally is high and stable and probably only markedly affected by inclement weather or aberrantly bad years. Conversely, breeding propensity of adults and duckling production probably do respond more to annual weather variations; i.e. unfavorable winter conditions for adults increase probability of death or skipped breeding, whereas favorable summers

  8. Burden and Risk Factors for Cold-Related Illness and Death in New York City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathryn Lane


    Full Text Available Exposure to cold weather can cause cold-related illness and death, which are preventable. To understand the current burden, risk factors, and circumstances of exposure for illness and death directly attributed to cold, we examined hospital discharge, death certificate, and medical examiner data during the cold season from 2005 to 2014 in New York City (NYC, the largest city in the United States. On average each year, there were 180 treat-and-release emergency department visits (average annual rate of 21.6 per million and 240 hospital admissions (29.6 per million for cold-related illness, and 15 cold-related deaths (1.8 per million. Seventy-five percent of decedents were exposed outdoors. About half of those exposed outdoors were homeless or suspected to be homeless. Of the 25% of decedents exposed indoors, none had home heat and nearly all were living in single-family or row homes. The majority of deaths and illnesses occurred outside of periods of extreme cold. Unsheltered homeless individuals, people who use substances and become incapacitated outdoors, and older adults with medical and psychiatric conditions without home heat are most at risk. This information can inform public health prevention strategies and interventions.

  9. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) about Extreme Heat (United States)

    ... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

  10. A szélsőséges időjárási jelenségek hatásai (Effects of the Extreme Weather Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tamás Molnár


    Full Text Available Economist Sir Nicholas Stern warned that the global warming could cause major blow to the world economy than the two world wars and the crisis in the 1930s. But where are we in this process now and what can be expected in the near future and what opportunities we are to curb the negative effects and to slow down the global warming. The world’s population is more than 7 billion people now and we will live more than 9 billion on the planet in 2050 according to the conservative estimation because daily the number of inhabitants increases by approximitaly a quarter of a million people (National Rural Strategy, 2020. The water and ecosystem resources are diminishing due to overuse and the values of ecological footprint are very high especially in the developed countries. The increase of extreme weather events and its effects associated with the global warming have also growing impact on agricultural production. This phenomenon is important because to solve the famine and the water shortage will be much bigger problem due to climate change than today. The VAHAVA reports (change-impact-response draw also attention to the issue which is also important for experts of climate change: Is it clearly climate change and if so than what the role of the human activity in it is? It seems clear that the assumption is almost poetic as the earth sends clear messages: the concentration of greenhouse gases increased suddenly in the atmosphere (carbon-dioxide, methan, nitrous oxide, etc, the average temperature continues to rise (increasing number of hot records, the sea temperature is also rising, the area of glaciers is shrinking dramatically and prolonged drought and flood waters in some places appear. The habitats of plans and animals, routes of bird migration change. The negative effects of extreme weather events thus represent a broad problem area. The effects can be devide into several groups. Some of them have impact already relatively short-term (for

  11. Cold plate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marroquin, Christopher M.; O' Connell, Kevin M.; Schultz, Mark D.; Tian, Shurong


    A cold plate, an electronic assembly including a cold plate, and a method for forming a cold plate are provided. The cold plate includes an interface plate and an opposing plate that form a plenum. The cold plate includes a plurality of active areas arranged for alignment over respective heat generating portions of an electronic assembly, and non-active areas between the active areas. A cooling fluid flows through the plenum. The plenum, at the non-active areas, has a reduced width and/or reduced height relative to the plenum at the active areas. The reduced width and/or height of the plenum, and exterior dimensions of cold plate, at the non-active areas allow the non-active areas to flex to accommodate surface variations of the electronics assembly. The reduced width and/or height non-active areas can be specifically shaped to fit between physical features of the electronics assembly.

  12. High Latitude Corals Tolerate Severe Cold Spell

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chenae A. Tuckett


    Full Text Available Climatically extreme weather events often drive long-term ecological responses of ecosystems. By disrupting the important symbiosis with zooxanthellae, Marine Cold Spells (MCS can cause bleaching and mortality in tropical and subtropical scleractinian corals. Here we report on the effects of a severe MCS on high latitude corals, where we expected to find bleaching and mortality. The MCS took place off the coast of Perth (32°S, Western Australia in 2016. Bleaching was assessed before (2014 and after (2017 the MCS from surveys of permanent plots, and with timed bleaching searches. Temperature data was recorded with in situ loggers. During the MCS temperatures dipped to the coldest recorded in ten years (15.3°C and periods of <17°C lasted for up to 19 days. Only 4.3% of the surveyed coral colonies showed signs of bleaching. Bleaching was observed in 8 species where those most affected were Plesiastrea versipora and Montipora mollis. These findings suggest that high latitude corals in this area are tolerant of cold stress and are not persisting near a lethal temperature minimum. It has not been established whether other environmental conditions are limiting these species, and if so, what the implications are for coral performance on these reefs in a warmer future.

  13. Proceedings of the cold climate construction conference and expo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)



    This conference provided a forum to present innovative technologies in engineering, construction, energy efficiency, workforce productivity and several other aspects affecting cold regions. The session on winter construction featured tools techniques and technologies that maximize winter construction, with reference to the latest in cold weather construction techniques and lessons learned from the far north and south. It featured lessons on building on ice, frozen ground and permafrost. The session on sustainability addressed issues regarding sustainable design; solar, wind and geothermal systems; building envelopes that work in cold climates; and energy efficient products and techniques. The session on workforce productivity presented methods to keep the workforce warm and healthy in cold conditions; attracting and preparing foreign workers for the far north; worker productivity in a cold environment; tools, techniques and clothing to minimize the effects of cold weather; and cold weather equipment operations. Three presentations from the conference have been catalogued separately for inclusion in this database. refs., tabs., figs.

  14. National Weather Service (United States)

    ... GIS International Weather Cooperative Observers Storm Spotters Tsunami Facts and Figures National Water Center WEATHER SAFETY NOAA Weather Radio StormReady Heat Lightning Hurricanes Thunderstorms Tornadoes Rip Currents Floods Winter Weather ...

  15. Cold injuries. (United States)

    Kruse, R J


    There are two categories of cold injury. The first is hypothermia, which is a systemic injury to cold, and the second is frostbite, which is a local injury. Throughout history, entire armies, from George Washington to the Germans on the Russian Front in World War II, have fallen prey to prolonged cold exposure. Cold injury is common and can occur in all seasons if ambient temperature is lower than the core body temperature. In the 1985 Boston Marathon, even though it was 76 degrees and sunny, there were 75 runners treated for hypothermia. In general, humans adapt poorly to cold exposure. Children are at particular risk because of their relatively greater surface area/body mass ratio, causing them to cool even more rapidly than adults. Because of this, the human's best defense against cold injury is to limit his/her exposure to cold and to dress appropriately. If cold injury has occurred and is mild, often simple passive rewarming such as dry blankets and a warm room are sufficient treatment.

  16. Further outlooks: extremely uncomfortable; Die weiteren Aussichten: extrem ungemuetlich

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Resenhoeft, T.


    Climate is changing extremely in the last decades. Scientists dealing with extreme weather, should not only stare at computer simulations. They have also to turn towards psyche, seriously personal experiences, knowing statistics, relativise supposed sensational reports and last not least collecting more data. (GL)

  17. Combining traditional weather forecasting, science in Kenya | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)


    Feb 24, 2012 ... Kenyan farmers have relied on the indigenous weather prediction methods of the Nganyi rainmakers for generations. But extreme weather caused by climate change is affecting the natural signs that rainmakers use to predict weather. Many fear traditional methods are therefore becoming redundant and ...

  18. Combining traditional weather forecasting, science in Kenya | CRDI ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    24 févr. 2012 ... Kenyan farmers have relied on the indigenous weather prediction methods of the Nganyi rainmakers for generations. But extreme weather caused by climate change is affecting the natural signs that rainmakers use to predict weather. Many fear traditional methods are therefore becoming redundant and ...

  19. Insurance against weather risk : use of heating degree-days from non-local stations for weather derivatives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.


    Weather derivatives enable policy-holders to safeguard themselves against extreme weather conditions. The effectiveness and the efficiency of the risk transfer is determined by the spatial risk basis, which is the stochastic dependency of the local weather outcome being insured and the outcome of

  20. Cold Sore (United States)

    ... may reduce how often they return. Symptoms A cold sore usually passes through several stages: Tingling and itching. Many people feel an itching, burning or tingling sensation around their lips for a day or so ...

  1. Weather and Tourism: Thermal Comfort and Zoological Park Visitor Attendance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David R. Perkins


    Full Text Available Weather events have the potential to greatly impact business operations and profitability, especially in outdoor-oriented economic sectors such as Tourism, Recreation, and Leisure (TRL. Although a substantive body of work focuses on the macroscale impacts of climate change, less is known about how daily weather events influence attendance decisions, particularly relating to the physiological thermal comfort levels of each visitor. To address this imbalance, this paper focuses on ambient thermal environments and visitor behavior at the Phoenix and Atlanta zoos. Daily visitor attendances at each zoo from September 2001 to June 2011, were paired with the Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET to help measure the thermal conditions most likely experienced by zoo visitors. PET was calculated using hourly atmospheric variables of temperature, humidity, wind speed, and cloud cover from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. at each zoological park location and then classified based on thermal comfort categories established by the American Society of Heating and Air Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE. The major findings suggested that in both Phoenix and Atlanta, optimal thermal regimes for peak attendance occurred within “slightly warm” and “warm” PET-based thermal categories. Additionally, visitors seemed to be averse to the most commonly occurring thermal extreme since visitors appeared to avoid the zoo on excessively hot days in Phoenix and excessively cold days in Atlanta. Finally, changes in the daily weather impacted visitor attendance as both zoos experienced peak attendance on days with dynamic changes in the thermal regimes and depressed attendances on days with stagnant thermal regimes. Building a better understanding of how weather events impact visitor demand can help improve our assessments of the potential impacts future climate change may have on tourism.

  2. Extreme climate in China. Facts, simulation and projection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Hui-Jun; Sun, Jian-Qi; Chen, Huo-Po; Zhu, Ya-Li; Zhang, Ying; Jiang, Da-Bang; Lang, Xian-Mei; Fan, Ke; Yu, En-Tao [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). Inst. of Atmospheric Physics; Yang, Song [NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States)


    In this paper, studies on extreme climate in China including extreme temperature and precipitation, dust weather activity, tropical cyclone activity, intense snowfall and cold surge activity, floods, and droughts are reviewed based on the peer-reviewed publications in recent decades. The review is focused first on the climatological features, variability, and trends in the past half century and then on simulations and projections based on global and regional climate models. As the annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) increased throughout China, heat wave intensity and frequency overall increased in the past half century, with a large rate after the 1980s. The daily or yearly minimum SAT increased more significantly than the mean or maximum SAT. The long-term change in precipitation is predominantly characterized by the so-called southern flood and northern drought pattern in eastern China and by the overall increase over Northwest China. The interdecadal variation of monsoon, represented by the monsoon weakening in the end of 1970s, is largely responsible for this change in mean precipitation. Precipitation-related extreme events (e.g., heavy rainfall and intense snowfall) have become more frequent and intense generally over China in the recent years, with large spatial features. Dust weather activity, however, has become less frequent over northern China in the recent years, as result of weakened cold surge activity, reinforced precipitation, and improved vegetation condition. State-of-the-art climate models are capable of reproducing some features of the mean climate and extreme climate events. However, discrepancies among models in simulating and projecting the mean and extreme climate are also demonstrated by many recent studies. Regional models with higher resolutions often perform better than global models. To predict and project climate variations and extremes, many new approaches and schemes based on dynamical models, statistical methods, or their

  3. Weather Augmented Risk Determination (WARD) System (United States)

    Niknejad, M.; Mazdiyasni, O.; Momtaz, F.; AghaKouchak, A.


    Extreme climatic events have direct and indirect impacts on society, economy and the environment. Based on the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data, over one third of the U.S. GDP can be considered as weather-sensitive involving some degree of weather risk. This expands from a local scale concrete foundation construction to large scale transportation systems. Extreme and unexpected weather conditions have always been considered as one of the probable risks to human health, productivity and activities. The construction industry is a large sector of the economy, and is also greatly influenced by weather-related risks including work stoppage and low labor productivity. Identification and quantification of these risks, and providing mitigation of their effects are always the concerns of construction project managers. In addition to severe weather conditions' destructive effects, seasonal changes in weather conditions can also have negative impacts on human health. Work stoppage and reduced labor productivity can be caused by precipitation, wind, temperature, relative humidity and other weather conditions. Historical and project-specific weather information can improve better project management and mitigation planning, and ultimately reduce the risk of weather-related conditions. This paper proposes new software for project-specific user-defined data analysis that offers (a) probability of work stoppage and the estimated project length considering weather conditions; (b) information on reduced labor productivity and its impacts on project duration; and (c) probabilistic information on the project timeline based on both weather-related work stoppage and labor productivity. The software (WARD System) is designed such that it can be integrated into the already available project management tools. While the system and presented application focuses on the construction industry, the developed software is general and can be used for any application that involves

  4. Spectral characteristics of the nearshore waves off Paradip, India during monsoon and extreme events

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Aboobacker, V.M.; Vethamony, P.; Sudheesh, K.; Rupali, S.P.

    and directional wave energy spectra distinctly separate out the wave conditions that prevailed off Paradip in the monsoon, fair weather and extreme weather events during the above period. Frequency-energy spectra during extreme events are single peaked...

  5. Surface Weather, Signal Service and Weather Bureau (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface Weather, Signal Service and Weather Bureau (SWSSWB) Records primarily created by the United States Army Signal Service from 1819 until the paid and voluntary...

  6. Monthly Weather Review (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Supplements to the Monthly Weather Review publication. The Weather Bureau published the Monthly weather review Supplement irregularly from 1914 to 1949. The...

  7. Weathering and landscape evolution (United States)

    Turkington, Alice V.; Phillips, Jonathan D.; Campbell, Sean W.


    In recognition of the fundamental control exerted by weathering on landscape evolution and topographic development, the 35th Binghamton Geomorphology Symposium was convened under the theme of Weathering and Landscape Evolution. The papers and posters presented at the conference imparted the state-of-the-art in weathering geomorphology, tackled the issue of scale linkage in geomorphic studies and offered a vehicle for interdisciplinary communication on research into weathering and landscape evolution. The papers included in this special issue are encapsulated here under the general themes of weathering mantles, weathering and relative dating, weathering and denudation, weathering processes and controls and the 'big picture'.

  8. Tips to Protect Workers in Cold Environments (United States)

    ... Z Index | Newsroom | Contact Us | FAQs | About OSHA OSHA ... health problems such as trench foot, frostbite and hypothermia. In extreme cases, including cold water immersion, exposure can lead to ...

  9. Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe (United States)

    Vautard, Robert; Christidis, Nikolaos; Ciavarella, Andrew; Alvarez-Castro, Carmen; Bellprat, Omar; Christiansen, Bo; Colfescu, Ioana; Cowan, Tim; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Eden, Jonathan; Hauser, Mathias; Hegerl, Gabriele; Hempelmann, Nils; Klehmet, Katharina; Lott, Fraser; Nangini, Cathy; Orth, René; Radanovics, Sabine; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Stott, Peter; Tett, Simon; Wilcox, Laura; Yiou, Pascal


    A detailed analysis is carried out to assess the HadGEM3-A global atmospheric model skill in simulating extreme temperatures, precipitation and storm surges in Europe in the view of their attribution to human influence. The analysis is performed based on an ensemble of 15 atmospheric simulations forced with observed sea surface temperature of the 54 year period 1960-2013. These simulations, together with dual simulations without human influence in the forcing, are intended to be used in weather and climate event attribution. The analysis investigates the main processes leading to extreme events, including atmospheric circulation patterns, their links with temperature extremes, land-atmosphere and troposphere-stratosphere interactions. It also compares observed and simulated variability, trends and generalized extreme value theory parameters for temperature and precipitation. One of the most striking findings is the ability of the model to capture North-Atlantic atmospheric weather regimes as obtained from a cluster analysis of sea level pressure fields. The model also reproduces the main observed weather patterns responsible for temperature and precipitation extreme events. However, biases are found in many physical processes. Slightly excessive drying may be the cause of an overestimated summer interannual variability and too intense heat waves, especially in central/northern Europe. However, this does not seem to hinder proper simulation of summer temperature trends. Cold extremes appear well simulated, as well as the underlying blocking frequency and stratosphere-troposphere interactions. Extreme precipitation amounts are overestimated and too variable. The atmospheric conditions leading to storm surges were also examined in the Baltics region. There, simulated weather conditions appear not to be leading to strong enough storm surges, but winds were found in very good agreement with reanalyses. The performance in reproducing atmospheric weather patterns

  10. Space Weather Research: Indian perspective (United States)

    Bhardwaj, Anil; Pant, Tarun Kumar; Choudhary, R. K.; Nandy, Dibyendu; Manoharan, P. K.


    Space weather, just like its meteorological counterpart, is of extreme importance when it comes to its impact on terrestrial near- and far-space environments. In recent years, space weather research has acquired an important place as a thrust area of research having implications both in space science and technology. The presence of satellites and other technological systems from different nations in near-Earth space necessitates that one must have a comprehensive understanding not only of the origin and evolution of space weather processes but also of their impact on technology and terrestrial upper atmosphere. To address this aspect, nations across the globe including India have been investing in research concerning Sun, solar processes and their evolution from solar interior into the interplanetary space, and their impact on Earth's magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere system. In India, over the years, a substantial amount of work has been done in each of these areas by various agencies/institutions. In fact, India has been, and continues to be, at the forefront of space research and has ambitious future programs concerning these areas encompassing space weather. This review aims at providing a glimpse of this Indian perspective on space weather research to the reader and presenting an up-to-date status of the same.

  11. Graphical tools for TV weather presentation (United States)

    Najman, M.


    Contemporary meteorology and its media presentation faces in my opinion following key tasks: - Delivering the meteorological information to the end user/spectator in understandable and modern fashion, which follows industry standard of video output (HD, 16:9) - Besides weather icons show also the outputs of numerical weather prediction models, climatological data, satellite and radar images, observed weather as actual as possible. - Does not compromise the accuracy of presented data. - Ability to prepare and adjust the weather show according to actual synoptic situtation. - Ability to refocus and completely adjust the weather show to actual extreme weather events. - Ground map resolution weather data presentation need to be at least 20 m/pixel to be able to follow the numerical weather prediction model resolution. - Ability to switch between different numerical weather prediction models each day, each show or even in the middle of one weather show. - The graphical weather software need to be flexible and fast. The graphical changes nee to be implementable and airable within minutes before the show or even live. These tasks are so demanding and the usual original approach of custom graphics could not deal with it. It was not able to change the show every day, the shows were static and identical day after day. To change the content of the weather show daily was costly and most of the time impossible with the usual approach. The development in this area is fast though and there are several different options for weather predicting organisations such as national meteorological offices and private meteorological companies to solve this problem. What are the ways to solve it? What are the limitations and advantages of contemporary graphical tools for meteorologists? All these questions will be answered.

  12. Probability assessment for the incidence of extreme events due to the climatic change. Focus Germany; Berechnung der Wahrscheinlichkeiten fuer das Eintreten von Extremereignissen durch Klimaaenderungen. Schwerpunkt Deutschland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jonas, Martin; Staeger, Tim; Schoenwiese, Christian-Dietrich [Frankfurt Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Atmosphaere und Umwelt, Arbeitsgruppe Klimaforschung


    The study on the probability of occurrence of extreme weather events in Germany is based on compiled data covering ground-level temperature, precipitation and wind during the time period 1901 to 2000. The data processing approach is based on two methodologies: a time-gliding extreme value analysis and a structure-oriented time-series analysis. The results show a significant increase of very hot months and at the same time a decrease of extreme cold months within the 20th century. In the time period after 1951 the probability of very high daily maximum temperatures increased for all seasons. Concerning the precipitation the increase of extreme values and higher variabilities are observed for the winter period. The results concerning the wind are not so clear. Summarizing the extreme behavior of temperature and precipitation has shown strong variations during the last century.

  13. Superfluorescence with cold trapped neon atoms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zachorowski, Jerzy


    A method for observation of superfluorescence in a cloud of cold metastable Ne atoms is proposed. Means of achieving a cold sample of trapped metastable atoms are discussed. The feasibility of obtaining conditions for a superfluorescence pulse is studied. The paper also discusses the prospects for obtaining intense pulses of extreme ultraviolet radiation

  14. Sensitivity of UK butterflies to local climatic extremes: which life stages are most at risk? (United States)

    McDermott Long, Osgur; Warren, Rachel; Price, Jeff; Brereton, Tom M; Botham, Marc S; Franco, Aldina M A


    There is growing recognition as to the importance of extreme climatic events (ECEs) in determining changes in species populations. In fact, it is often the extent of climate variability that determines a population's ability to persist at a given site. This study examined the impact of ECEs on the resident UK butterfly species (n = 41) over a 37-year period. The study investigated the sensitivity of butterflies to four extremes (drought, extreme precipitation, extreme heat and extreme cold), identified at the site level, across each species' life stages. Variations in the vulnerability of butterflies at the site level were also compared based on three life-history traits (voltinism, habitat requirement and range). This is the first study to examine the effects of ECEs at the site level across all life stages of a butterfly, identifying sensitive life stages and unravelling the role life-history traits play in species sensitivity to ECEs. Butterfly population changes were found to be primarily driven by temperature extremes. Extreme heat was detrimental during overwintering periods and beneficial during adult periods and extreme cold had opposite impacts on both of these life stages. Previously undocumented detrimental effects were identified for extreme precipitation during the pupal life stage for univoltine species. Generalists were found to have significantly more negative associations with ECEs than specialists. With future projections of warmer, wetter winters and more severe weather events, UK butterflies could come under severe pressure given the findings of this study. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2016 British Ecological Society.

  15. Cold fusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koster, J.


    In this contribution the author the phenomenom of so-called cold fusion, inspired by the memorable lecture of Moshe Gai on his own search for this effect. Thus much of what follows was presented by Dr. Gai; the rest is from independent reading. What is referred to as cold fusion is of course the observation of possible products of deuteron-deuteron (d-d) fusion within deuterium-loaded (dentended) electrodes. The debate over the two vanguard cold fusion experiments has raged under far more public attention than usually accorded new scientific phenomena. The clamor commenced with the press conference of M. Fleishmann and S. Pons on March 23, 1989 and the nearly simultaneous wide circulation of a preprint of S. Jones and collaborators. The majority of work attempting to confirm these observations has at the time of this writing yet to appear in published form, but contributions to conferences and electronic mail over computer networks were certainly filled with preliminary results. To keep what follows to a reasonable length the author limit this discussion to the searches for neutron (suggested by ref. 2) or for excessive heat production (suggested by ref. 1), following a synopsis of the hypotheses of cold fusion

  16. Project COLD. (United States)

    Kazanjian, Wendy C.


    Describes Project COLD (Climate, Ocean, Land, Discovery) a scientific study of the Polar Regions, a collection of 35 modules used within the framework of existing subjects: oceanography, biology, geology, meterology, geography, social science. Includes a partial list of topics and one activity (geodesic dome) from a module. (Author/SK)

  17. Cold fusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seo, Suk Yong; You, Jae Jun


    Nearly every technical information is chased in the world. All of them are reviewed and analyzed. Some of them are chosen to study further more to review every related documents. And a probable suggestion about the excitonic process in deuteron absorbed condensed matter is proposed a way to cold fusion. 8 refs. (Author)

  18. Cold fusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suh, Suk Yong; Sung, Ki Woong; Kang, Joo Sang; Lee, Jong Jik


    So called 'cold fusion phenomena' are not confirmed yet. Excess heat generation is very delicate one. Neutron generation is most reliable results, however, the records are erratic and the same results could not be repeated. So there is no reason to exclude the malfunction of testing instruments. The same arguments arise in recording 4 He, 3 He, 3 H, which are not rich in quantity basically. An experiment where plenty of 4 He were recorded is attached in appendix. The problem is that we are trying to search cold fusion which is permitted by nature or not. The famous tunneling effect in quantum mechanics will answer it, however, the most fusion rate is known to be negligible. The focus of this project is on the theme that how to increase that negligible fusion rate. 6 figs, 4 tabs, 1512 refs. (Author)

  19. Cold fusion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suh, Suk Yong; Sung, Ki Woong; Kang, Joo Sang; Lee, Jong Jik [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)


    So called `cold fusion phenomena` are not confirmed yet. Excess heat generation is very delicate one. Neutron generation is most reliable results, however, the records are erratic and the same results could not be repeated. So there is no reason to exclude the malfunction of testing instruments. The same arguments arise in recording {sup 4}He, {sup 3}He, {sup 3}H, which are not rich in quantity basically. An experiment where plenty of {sup 4}He were recorded is attached in appendix. The problem is that we are trying to search cold fusion which is permitted by nature or not. The famous tunneling effect in quantum mechanics will answer it, however, the most fusion rate is known to be negligible. The focus of this project is on the theme that how to increase that negligible fusion rate. 6 figs, 4 tabs, 1512 refs. (Author).

  20. The Rapid Arctic Warming and Its Impact on East Asian Winter Weather in Recent Decade (United States)

    Kim, S. J.; Kim, B. M.; Kim, J. H.


    The Arctic is warming much more rapidly than the lower latitudes. In contrast to the rapid Arctic warming, in winters of the recent decade, the cold-air outbreaks over East Asia occur more frequently and stronger than in 1990s. By accompanying the snow over East Asia, the strong cold surges have led to a severe socio-economic impact. Such severe cold surges in recent decade over east Asia is consistent with the more dominant negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), that may be attributed by the Arctic amplification. In both observation-based reanalysis and numerical model experiments, the Arctic sea ice melting leads to the weakening of the AO polarity by reducing the meridional temperature gradient through a heat flux feedback. The Arctic warming and associated sea ice melting over the Kara-Barents area in late fall and early winter first release a lot of heat to the atmosphere from the ocean by a strong contrast in temperature and moisture and higher height anomaly is developed over the Kara/Barents and the Ural mountains The anomalous anticyclonic anomaly over the Arctic strengthen the Siberian High and at the same time the east Asian trough is developed over the western coast of the North Pacific. Through the passage between the margin of the Siberian High and east Asian tough, an extremely cold air is transported from east Siberia to east Asia for sometimes more than a week. Such a severe sold air brings about the moisture from nearby ocean, largely influencing the daily lives and economy in north East China, Korea, and Japan. The recent Arctic and associated sea ice melting is not only contributed to the local climate and weather, but also a severe weather in mid-latitudes through a modulation in polar vortex.

  1. The impact of cold spells on mortality and effect modification by cold spell characteristics (United States)

    Wang, Lijun; Liu, Tao; Hu, Mengjue; Zeng, Weilin; Zhang, Yonghui; Rutherford, Shannon; Lin, Hualiang; Xiao, Jianpeng; Yin, Peng; Liu, Jiangmei; Chu, Cordia; Tong, Shilu; Ma, Wenjun; Zhou, Maigeng


    In China, the health impact of cold weather has received little attention, which limits our understanding of the health impacts of climate change. We collected daily mortality and meteorological data in 66 communities across China from 2006 to 2011. Within each community, we estimated the effect of cold spell exposure on mortality using a Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model (DLNM). We also examined the modification effect of cold spell characteristics (intensity, duration, and timing) and individual-specific factors (causes of death, age, gender and education). Meta-analysis method was finally used to estimate the overall effects. The overall cumulative excess risk (CER) of non-accidental mortality during cold spell days was 28.2% (95% CI: 21.4%, 35.3%) compared with non-cold spell days. There was a significant increase in mortality when the cold spell duration and intensity increased or occurred earlier in the season. Cold spell effects and effect modification by cold spell characteristics were more pronounced in south China. The elderly, people with low education level and those with respiratory diseases were generally more vulnerable to cold spells. Cold spells statistically significantly increase mortality risk in China, with greater effects in southern China. This effect is modified by cold spell characteristics and individual-level factors.

  2. Adverse Weather Evokes Nostalgia. (United States)

    van Tilburg, Wijnand A P; Sedikides, Constantine; Wildschut, Tim


    Four studies examined the link between adverse weather and the palliative role of nostalgia. We proposed and tested that (a) adverse weather evokes nostalgia (Hypothesis 1); (b) adverse weather causes distress, which predicts elevated nostalgia (Hypothesis 2); (c) preventing nostalgia exacerbates weather-induced distress (Hypothesis 3); and (d) weather-evoked nostalgia confers psychological benefits (Hypothesis 4). In Study 1, participants listened to recordings of wind, thunder, rain, and neutral sounds. Adverse weather evoked nostalgia. In Study 2, participants kept a 10-day diary recording weather conditions, distress, and nostalgia. We also obtained meteorological data. Adverse weather perceptions were positively correlated with distress, which predicted higher nostalgia. Also, adverse natural weather was associated with corresponding weather perceptions, which predicted elevated nostalgia. (Results were mixed for rain.) In Study 3, preventing nostalgia (via cognitive load) increased weather-evoked distress. In Study 4, weather-evoked nostalgia was positively associated with psychological benefits. The findings pioneer the relevance of nostalgia as source of comfort in adverse weather.

  3. Verification of Space Weather Forecasts using Terrestrial Weather Approaches (United States)

    Henley, E.; Murray, S.; Pope, E.; Stephenson, D.; Sharpe, M.; Bingham, S.; Jackson, D.


    The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) provides a range of 24/7 operational space weather forecasts, alerts, and warnings, which provide valuable information on space weather that can degrade electricity grids, radio communications, and satellite electronics. Forecasts issued include arrival times of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and probabilistic forecasts for flares, geomagnetic storm indices, and energetic particle fluxes and fluences. These forecasts are produced twice daily using a combination of output from models such as Enlil, near-real-time observations, and forecaster experience. Verification of forecasts is crucial for users, researchers, and forecasters to understand the strengths and limitations of forecasters, and to assess forecaster added value. To this end, the Met Office (in collaboration with Exeter University) has been adapting verification techniques from terrestrial weather, and has been working closely with the International Space Environment Service (ISES) to standardise verification procedures. We will present the results of part of this work, analysing forecast and observed CME arrival times, assessing skill using 2x2 contingency tables. These MOSWOC forecasts can be objectively compared to those produced by the NASA Community Coordinated Modelling Center - a useful benchmark. This approach cannot be taken for the other forecasts, as they are probabilistic and categorical (e.g., geomagnetic storm forecasts give probabilities of exceeding levels from minor to extreme). We will present appropriate verification techniques being developed to address these forecasts, such as rank probability skill score, and comparing forecasts against climatology and persistence benchmarks. As part of this, we will outline the use of discrete time Markov chains to assess and improve the performance of our geomagnetic storm forecasts. We will also discuss work to adapt a terrestrial verification visualisation system to space weather, to help


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Botos Horia Mircea


    Full Text Available This paper approaches the subject of Weather Derivatives, more exactly their basic element the weather index. The weather index has two forms, the Heating Degree Day (HDD and the Cooling Degree Day (CDD. We will try to explain their origin, use and the relationship between the two forms of the index. In our research we started from the analysis of the weather derivatives and what they are based on. After finding out about weather index, we were interested in understanding exactly how they work and how they influence the value of the contract. On the national level the research in the field is scares, but foreign materials available. The study for this paper was based firstly on reading about Weather Derivative, and then going in the meteorogical field and determining the way by which the indices were determined. After this, we went to the field with interest in the indices, such as the energy and gas industries, and figured out how they determined the weather index. For the examples we obtained data from the weather index database, and calculated the value for the period. The study is made on a period of five years, in 8 cities of the European Union. The result of this research is that we can now understand better the importance of the way the indices work and how they influence the value of the Weather Derivatives. This research has an implication on the field of insurance, because of the fact that weather derivative are at the convergence point of the stock markets and the insurance market. The originality of the paper comes from the personal touch given to the theoretical aspect and through the analysis of the HDD and CDD index in order to show their general behaviour and relationship.

  5. Mandelbrot's Extremism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beirlant, J.; Schoutens, W.; Segers, J.J.J.


    In the sixties Mandelbrot already showed that extreme price swings are more likely than some of us think or incorporate in our models.A modern toolbox for analyzing such rare events can be found in the field of extreme value theory.At the core of extreme value theory lies the modelling of maxima

  6. Surface Weather Observations (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Surface Weather Observation Collection consists primarily of hourly, synoptic, daily, and monthly forms submitted to the archive by the National Weather Service...

  7. Mariners Weather Log (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Mariners Weather Log (MWL) is a publication containing articles, news and information about marine weather events and phenomena, worldwide environmental impact...

  8. National Convective Weather Diagnostic (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Current convective hazards identified by the National Convective Weather Detection algorithm. The National Convective Weather Diagnostic (NCWD) is an automatically...

  9. Pilot Weather Reports (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Aviation weather reports relayed from pilots to FAA air traffic controllers or National Weather Service personnel. Elements include sky cover, turbulence, wind...

  10. Weather Radar Stations (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — These data represent Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) and Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) weather radar stations within the US. The NEXRAD radar stations are...

  11. Daily Weather Records (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These daily weather records were compiled from a subset of stations in the Global Historical Climatological Network (GHCN)-Daily dataset. A weather record is...

  12. Surface Weather Observations Hourly (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Standard hourly observations taken at Weather Bureau/National Weather Service offices and airports throughout the United States. Hourly observations began during the...

  13. Radar Weather Observation (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Radar Weather Observation is a set of archived historical manuscripts stored on microfiche. The primary source of these radar weather observations manuscript records...

  14. Land Surface Weather Observations (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — METAR is the international standard code format for hourly surface weather observations. The acronym roughly translates from French as Aviation Routine Weather...

  15. Internet Weather Source (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Weather Service (NWS) National Telecommunications Gateway provides weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States, its...

  16. Natural Weathering Exposure Station (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Corps of Engineers' Treat Island Natural Weathering Exposure Station is a long-term natural weathering facility used to study concrete durability. Located on the...

  17. Space Weather in Operation (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The “Space Weather in Operations” effort will provide on-demand and near-real time space weather event information to the Data Access Toolkit (DAT), which is the...

  18. Prevalence of weather sensitivity in Germany and Canada (United States)

    Mackensen, Sylvia; Hoeppe, Peter; Maarouf, Abdel; Tourigny, Pierre; Nowak, Dennis


    Several studies have shown that atmospheric conditions can affect well-being or disease, and that some individuals seem to be more sensitive to weather than others. Since epidemiological data on the prevalence of weather-related health effects are lacking, two representative weather sensitivity (WS) surveys were conducted independently in Germany and Canada. The objectives of this paper are: (1) to identify the prevalence of WS in Germany and Canada, (2) to describe weather-related symptoms and the corresponding weather conditions, and (3) to compare the findings in the two countries. In Germany 1,064 citizens (age >16 years) were interviewed in January 2001, and in Canada 1,506 persons (age >18 years) were interviewed in January 1994. The results showed that 19.2% of the German population thought that weather affected their health “to a strong degree,” 35.3% that weather had “some influence on their health” (sum of both = 54.5% weather sensitive), whereas the remaining 45.5% did not consider that weather had an effect on their health status. In Canada 61% of the respondents considered themselves to be sensitive to the weather. The highest prevalence of WS (high + some influence) in Germans was found in the age group older than 60 years (68%), which was almost identical in the Canadian population (69%). The highest frequencies of weather-related symptoms were reported in Germany for stormy weather (30%) and when it became colder (29%). In Canada mainly cold weather (46%), dampness (21%) and rain (20%) were considered to affect health more than other weather types. The most frequent symptoms reported in Germany were headache/migraine (61%), lethargy (47%), sleep disturbances (46%), fatigue (42%), joint pain (40%), irritation (31%), depression (27%), vertigo (26%), concentration problems (26%) and scar pain (23%). Canadian weather-sensitive persons reported colds (29%), psychological effects (28%) and painful joints, muscles or arthritis (10%). In Germany 32

  19. An abridged history of federal involvement in space weather forecasting (United States)

    Caldwell, Becaja; McCarron, Eoin; Jonas, Seth


    Public awareness of space weather and its adverse effects on critical infrastructure systems, services, and technologies (e.g., the electric grid, telecommunications, and satellites) has grown through recent media coverage and scientific research. However, federal interest and involvement in space weather dates back to the decades between World War I and World War II when the National Bureau of Standards led efforts to observe, forecast, and provide warnings of space weather events that could interfere with high-frequency radio transmissions. The efforts to observe and predict space weather continued through the 1960s during the rise of the Cold War and into the present with U.S. government efforts to prepare the nation for space weather events. This paper provides a brief overview of the history of federal involvement in space weather forecasting from World War II, through the Apollo Program, and into the present.

  20. Weather conditions associated with autumn migration by mule deer in Wyoming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chadwick D. Rittenhouse


    Full Text Available Maintaining ecological integrity necessitates a proactive approach of identifying and acquiring lands to conserve unfragmented landscapes, as well as evaluating existing mitigation strategies to increase connectivity in fragmented landscapes. The increased use of highway underpasses and overpasses to restore connectivity for wildlife species offers clear conservation benefits, yet also presents a unique opportunity to understand how weather conditions may impact movement of wildlife species. We used remote camera observations (19,480 from an existing wildlife highway underpass in Wyoming and daily meteorological observations to quantify weather conditions associated with autumn migration of mule deer in 2009 and 2010. We identified minimal daily temperature and snow depth as proximate cues associated with mule deer migration to winter range. These weather cues were consistent across does and bucks, but differed slightly by year. Additionally, extreme early season snow depth or cold temperature events appear to be associated with onset of migration. This information will assist wildlife managers and transportation officials as they plan future projects to maintain and enhance migration routes for mule deer.

  1. Aspects of cold intrusions over Greece during autumn (United States)

    Mita, Constantina; Marinaki, Aggeliki; Zeini, Konstantina; Konstantara, Metaxia


    This study is focused on the description of atmospheric disturbances that caused intense cold intrusions over Greece during autumn for a period of 25 years (1982-2006). The study was based on data analysis from the meteorological station network of the Hellenic National Meteorological Service (HNMS) and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Initially, the days with temperature at the isobaric surface of 850 hPa less or equal to the mean temperature for the 10-day period the day under investigation belongs to are isolated, composing a new confined data set which was further used. An event of intense cold intrusion is identified based on a subjective set of criteria, considering the temperature decrease at the level of 850 hPa and its duration. In particular, the criteria that were used to identify a cold intrusion were: temperature variation between two successive days at the isobaric level of 850 hPa being equal or greater than 50 C at least once during the event and duration of the event of at least two successive days with continuous temperature decrease. Additionally, the synoptic analysis of the atmospheric disturbances involved using weather charts from ECMWF, revealed that all cases were related to low pressure systems at the level of 500 hPa, accompanied by cold air masses. Moreover, a methodology proposed to classify the cold intrusions based on general circulation characteristics of the atmosphere, resulted in seven major categories. More than half of the events belong in two categories, originated northwest of the greater Greek area (Greece and parts of neighbouring countries), between 400 and 600 N. Further analysis indicated that the frequency of events increases from September to November and the majority of the events lasted two to three days. Additionally, the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was used for the investigation of the statistical significance of the trends appearing in the results. The tests revealed that over

  2. Validation of standard ASTM F2732 and comparison with ISO 11079 with respect to comfort temperature ratings for cold protective clothing. (United States)

    Gao, Chuansi; Lin, Li-Yen; Halder, Amitava; Kuklane, Kalev; Holmér, Ingvar


    American standard ASTM F2732 estimates the lowest environmental temperature for thermal comfort for cold weather protective clothing. International standard ISO 11079 serves the same purpose but expresses cold stress in terms of required clothing insulation for a given cold climate. The objective of this study was to validate and compare the temperature ratings using human subject tests at two levels of metabolic rates (2 and 4 MET corresponding to 116.4 and 232.8 W/m(2)). Nine young and healthy male subjects participated in the cold exposure at 3.4 and -30.6 °C. The results showed that both standards predict similar temperature ratings for an intrinsic clothing insulation of 1.89 clo and for 2 MET activity. The predicted temperature rating for 2 MET activity is consistent with test subjects' thermophysiological responses, perceived thermal sensation and thermal comfort. For 4 MET activity, however, the whole body responses were on the cold side, particularly the responses of the extremities. ASTM F2732 is also limited due to its omission and simplification of three climatic variables (air velocity, radiant temperature and relative humidity) and exposure time in the cold which are of practical importance. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

  3. Water shortages and extreme events: a call for research. (United States)

    Carmichael, Catriona; Odams, Sue; Murray, Virginia; Sellick, Matthew; Colbourne, Jeni


    Water shortages as a result of extreme weather events, such as flooding and severe cold, have the potential to affect significant numbers of people. Therefore, the need to build robust, coordinated plans based on scientific evidence is crucial. The literature review outlined in this short communication was conducted as part of a joint Drinking Water Inspectorate and Health Protection Agency (now Public Health England) report which aimed to review the scientific evidence base on extreme events, water shortages and the resulting health impacts. A systematic literature review was undertaken to identify published literature from both peer-reviewed and grey literature sources. The retrieved literature was then assessed using the Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network quality assessment. The authors found very few scientific studies. However, a great deal of valuable grey literature was retrieved and used by the research team. In total, six main themes of importance that were identified by the review and discussed included health impacts, water quantity and quality, alternative supplies, vulnerable groups, communication with those affected and the emergency response. The authors conclude that more research needs to be conducted on health impacts and extreme events water shortages in order to build the future knowledge base and development of resilience.

  4. Temperature extremes in Europe: mechanisms and responses to climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cattiaux, Julien


    Europe witnessed a spate of record-breaking warm seasons during the 2000's. As illustrated by the devastating heat-wave of the summer 2003, these episodes induced strong societal and environmental impacts. Such occurrence of exceptional events over a relatively short time period raised up many questionings in the present context of climate change. In particular, can recent temperature extremes be considered as 'previews' of future climate conditions? Do they result from an increasing temperature variability? These questions constitute the main motivations of this thesis. Thus, our work aims to contribute to the understanding of physical mechanisms responsible for seasonal temperature extremes in Europe, in order to anticipate their future statistical characteristics. Involved processes are assessed by both statistical data-analysis of observations and climate projections and regional modeling experiments. First we show that while the inter-annual European temperature variability appears driven by disturbances in the North-Atlantic dynamics, the recent warming is likely to be dissociated with potential circulation changes. This inconsistency climaxes during the exceptionally mild autumn of 2006, whose temperature anomaly is only half explained by the atmospheric flow. Recent warm surface conditions in the North-Atlantic ocean seem to substantially contribute to the European warming in autumn-winter, through the establishment of advective and radiative processes. In spring-summer, since both advection by the westerlies and Atlantic warming are reduced, more local processes appear predominant (e.g. soil moisture, clouds, aerosols). Then the issue of future evolution of the relationship between North-Atlantic dynamics and European temperatures is addressed, based on climate projections of the International Panel on Climate Change. Multi-model analysis, using both flow-analogues and weather regimes methods, show that the inconsistency noticed over recent decades is

  5. Effects of intraday weather changes on asset returns and volatilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyein Shim


    Full Text Available Analyzing the intraday dataset on weather and market information with the use of the extended GJR-GARCH framework, this study explores in depth the weather effects on the asset returns and volatilities of the Korean stock and derivatives markets. Our intraday analyses contribute to the existing literature by going beyond the attempt of prior studies to capture the weather effects using the average daily observations alone. The empirical results document a modest presence of the weather effect on the returns and volatilities, though the significance of its impact is found to vary across different market conditions and indices. We also find that the return and volatility respond asymmetrically to extremely good and bad weather conditions. The intraday analyses show that the weather effect on the returns and volatilities is more statistically significant at the beginning of the working day or the lunch break, indicating the intraday weather effects on the financial market.

  6. Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program - Weatherization Assistance Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)



    The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Weatherization Assistance Program reduces energy costs for low-income households by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes, while ensuring their health and safety.

  7. Weather impacts on natural, social and economic systems. German report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flechsig, M; Gerlinger, K; Herrmann, N; Klein, R J.T.; Schneider, M; Sterr, H; Schellnhuber, H J


    The EU project Weather Impacts on Natural, Social and Economic Systems (WISE) has analysed impacts of current climate variability to evaluate the sensitivity of today's society to extreme weather. Unlike studies of anticipated impacts of climate change, WISE did not rely on scenarios and projections, but on existing and newly collected data. The research involved (i) the statistical modelling of meteorological and sectoral time series, aimed at quantifying the impacts of changing weather variables on sector output, (ii) a population survey, aimed at investigating public perception of and behavioural response to unusually hot and dry summers and mild winters, and (iii) a management survey, aimed at obtaining insight into managers' awareness and perception of the importance of extreme weather on their operations. The three activities revealed a wealth of data and information, providing relevant insights into Germany's sensitivity to and perception of extreme weather events. Sectors that were analysed included agriculture, outdoor fire, water supply, human health, electricity and gas consumption and tourism. It appears from the statistical modelling that extreme weather can have impressive impacts on all sectors, especially when expressed in monetary terms. However, weather variability is generally considered a manageable risk, to which sectors in Germany appear reasonably well-adapted. The population and management surveys reveal both positive and negative impacts of extreme weather. People generally respond to these impacts by adjusting their activities. The utilities (electricity, gas and water) indicate that they are robsut to the current level of weather variability and do not consider climate change an important threat to their operations. The tourism sector experiences impacts but typically takes a reactive approach to adaptation, although it is also developing weather-insensitive products. (orig.)

  8. Weather impacts on natural, social and economic systems. German report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flechsig, M.; Gerlinger, K.; Herrmann, N.; Klein, R.J.T.; Schneider, M.; Sterr, H.; Schellnhuber, H.J.


    The EU project Weather Impacts on Natural, Social and Economic Systems (WISE) has analysed impacts of current climate variability to evaluate the sensitivity of today's society to extreme weather. Unlike studies of anticipated impacts of climate change, WISE did not rely on scenarios and projections, but on existing and newly collected data. The research involved (i) the statistical modelling of meteorological and sectoral time series, aimed at quantifying the impacts of changing weather variables on sector output, (ii) a population survey, aimed at investigating public perception of and behavioural response to unusually hot and dry summers and mild winters, and (iii) a management survey, aimed at obtaining insight into managers' awareness and perception of the importance of extreme weather on their operations. The three activities revealed a wealth of data and information, providing relevant insights into Germany's sensitivity to and perception of extreme weather events. Sectors that were analysed included agriculture, outdoor fire, water supply, human health, electricity and gas consumption and tourism. It appears from the statistical modelling that extreme weather can have impressive impacts on all sectors, especially when expressed in monetary terms. However, weather variability is generally considered a manageable risk, to which sectors in Germany appear reasonably well-adapted. The population and management surveys reveal both positive and negative impacts of extreme weather. People generally respond to these impacts by adjusting their activities. The utilities (electricity, gas and water) indicate that they are robsut to the current level of weather variability and do not consider climate change an important threat to their operations. The tourism sector experiences impacts but typically takes a reactive approach to adaptation, although it is also developing weather-insensitive products. (orig.)

  9. Thermal stress analysis of reactor containment building considering severe weather condition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Yun; Kim, Yun-Yong; Hyun, Jung-Hwan; Kim, Do-Gyeum


    Highlights: • We examine that through-wall crack risk in cold weather is high. • It is predicted that cracking in concrete wall will not happen in hot region. • Cracking due to hydration heat can be controlled by appropriate curing condition. • Temperature differences between inner and outer face is relatively small in hot weather. - Abstract: Prediction of concrete cracking due to hydration heat in mass concrete such as reactor containment building (RCB) in nuclear power plant is a crucial issue in construction site. In this study, the numerical analysis for heat transfer and stress development is performed for the containment wall in RCB by considering the severe weather conditions. Finally, concrete cracking risk in hot and cold weather is discussed based on analysis results. In analyses considering severe weather conditions, it is found that the through-wall cracking risk in cold weather is high due to the abrupt temperature difference between inside concrete and the ambient air in cold region. In hot weather, temperature differences between inner and outer face is relatively small, and accordingly the relevant cracking risk is relatively low in contrast with cold weather

  10. Weather, Climate and Food Security (United States)

    Beer, T.


    To climatologists food security is dominated by the impacts of weather and climate on food systems. But the link between the atmosphere and food security is more complex. Extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones impact directly on agriculture, but they also impact on the logistical distribution of food and can thus disrupt the food supply chain, especially in urban areas. Drought affects human life and health as well as impacting dramatically on the sustainable development of society. It represents a pending danger for vulnerable agricultural systems that depend on the rainfall, water supply and reservoirs. Developed countries are affected, but the impact is disproportionate within the developing world. Drought, especially when it results in famine, can change the life and economic development of developing nations and stifle their development for decades. A holistic approach is required to understand the phenomena, to forecast catastrophic events such as drought and famine and to predict their societal consequences. In the Food Security recommendations of the Rio+20 Forum on Science, Technology and Innovation for Sustainable Development it states that it is important "To understand fully how to measure, assess and reduce the impacts of production on the natural environment including climate change, recognizing that different measures of impact (e.g. water, land, biodiversity, carbon and other greenhouse gases, etc) may trade-off against each other..." This talk will review the historical link between weather, climate, drought and food supplies; examine the international situation; and summarise the response of the scientific community

  11. Cough & Cold Medicine Abuse (United States)

    ... Videos for Educators Search English Español Cough & Cold Medicine Abuse KidsHealth / For Teens / Cough & Cold Medicine Abuse ... resfriado Why Do People Use Cough and Cold Medicines to Get High? There's an ingredient in many ...

  12. Costs and benefits of cold acclimation in field released Drosophila

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Torsten N; Hoffmann, Ary A; Overgaard, Johannes


    -acclimated were up to 36 times more likely to find food than the cold-acclimated flies when temperatures were warm. Such costs and strong benefits were not evident in laboratory tests where we found no reduction in heat survival of the cold-acclimated flies. Field release studies, therefore, reveal costs of cold......One way animals can counter the effects of climatic extremes is via physiological acclimation, but acclimating to one extreme might decrease performance under different conditions. Here, we use field releases of Drosophila melanogaster on two continents across a range of temperatures to test...... for costs and benefits of developmental or adult cold acclimation. Both types of cold acclimation had enormous benefits at low temperatures in the field; in the coldest releases only cold-acclimated flies were able to find a resource. However, this advantage came at a huge cost; flies that had not been cold...

  13. Comparing regional precipitation and temperature extremes in climate model and reanalysis products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oliver Angélil


    Full Text Available A growing field of research aims to characterise the contribution of anthropogenic emissions to the likelihood of extreme weather and climate events. These analyses can be sensitive to the shapes of the tails of simulated distributions. If tails are found to be unrealistically short or long, the anthropogenic signal emerges more or less clearly, respectively, from the noise of possible weather. Here we compare the chance of daily land-surface precipitation and near-surface temperature extremes generated by three Atmospheric Global Climate Models typically used for event attribution, with distributions from six reanalysis products. The likelihoods of extremes are compared for area-averages over grid cell and regional sized spatial domains. Results suggest a bias favouring overly strong attribution estimates for hot and cold events over many regions of Africa and Australia, and a bias favouring overly weak attribution estimates over regions of North America and Asia. For rainfall, results are more sensitive to geographic location. Although the three models show similar results over many regions, they do disagree over others. Equally, results highlight the discrepancy amongst reanalyses products. This emphasises the importance of using multiple reanalysis and/or observation products, as well as multiple models in event attribution studies.

  14. Cold fusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bush, R.T.


    The transmission resonance model (TRM) is combined with some electrochemistry of the cathode surface and found to provide a good fit to new data on excess heat. For the first time, a model for cold fusion not only fits calorimetric data but also predicts optimal trigger points. This suggests that the model is meaningful and that the excess heat phenomenon claimed by Fleischmann and Pons is genuine. A crucial role is suggested for the overpotential and, in particular, for the concentration overpotential, i.e., the hydrogen overvoltage. Self-similar geometry, or scale invariance, i.e., a fractal nature, is revealed by the relative excess power function. Heat bursts are predicted with a scale invariance in time, suggesting a possible link between the TRM and chaos theory. The model describes a near-surface phenomenon with an estimated excess power yield of ∼1 kW/cm 3 Pd, as compared to 50 W/cm 3 of reactor core for a good fission reactor. Transmission resonance-induced nuclear transmutation, a new type of nuclear reaction, is strongly suggested with two types emphasized: transmission resonance-induced neutron transfer reactions yielding essentially the same end result as Teller's hypothesized catalytic neutron transfer and a three-body reaction promoted by standing de Broglie waves. In this paper suggestions for the anomalous production of heat, particles, and radiation are given

  15. Space Weather Laboratory (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Space Weather Computational Laboratory is a Unix and PC based modeling and simulation facility devoted to research analysis of naturally occurring electrically...

  16. Cockpit weather information needs (United States)

    Scanlon, Charles H.


    The primary objective is to develop an advanced pilot weather interface for the flight deck and to measure its utilization and effectiveness in pilot reroute decision processes, weather situation awareness, and weather monitoring. Identical graphical weather displays for the dispatcher, air traffic control (ATC), and pilot crew should also enhance the dialogue capabilities for reroute decisions. By utilizing a broadcast data link for surface observations, forecasts, radar summaries, lightning strikes, and weather alerts, onboard weather computing facilities construct graphical displays, historical weather displays, color textual displays, and other tools to assist the pilot crew. Since the weather data is continually being received and stored by the airborne system, the pilot crew has instantaneous access to the latest information. This information is color coded to distinguish degrees of category for surface observations, ceiling and visibilities, and ground radar summaries. Automatic weather monitoring and pilot crew alerting is accomplished by the airborne computing facilities. When a new weather information is received, the displays are instantaneously changed to reflect the new information. Also, when a new surface or special observation for the intended destination is received, the pilot crew is informed so that information can be studied at the pilot's discretion. The pilot crew is also immediately alerted when a severe weather notice, AIRMET or SIGMET, is received. The cockpit weather display shares a multicolor eight inch cathode ray tube and overlaid touch panel with a pilot crew data link interface. Touch sensitive buttons and areas are used for pilot selection of graphical and data link displays. Time critical ATC messages are presented in a small window that overlays other displays so that immediate pilot alerting and action can be taken. Predeparture and reroute clearances are displayed on the graphical weather system so pilot review of weather along

  17. Extreme cosmos

    CERN Document Server

    Gaensler, Bryan


    The universe is all about extremes. Space has a temperature 270°C below freezing. Stars die in catastrophic supernova explosions a billion times brighter than the Sun. A black hole can generate 10 million trillion volts of electricity. And hypergiants are stars 2 billion kilometres across, larger than the orbit of Jupiter. Extreme Cosmos provides a stunning new view of the way the Universe works, seen through the lens of extremes: the fastest, hottest, heaviest, brightest, oldest, densest and even the loudest. This is an astronomy book that not only offers amazing facts and figures but also re

  18. Zeolite Formation and Weathering Processes in Dry Valleys of Antartica: Martian Analogs (United States)

    Gibson, E. K., Jr.; Wentworth, S. J.; McKay, D. S.; Socki, R. A.


    Terrestrial weathering processes in cold-desert climates such as the Dry Valleys of Antarctica may provide an excellent analog to chemical weathering and diagenesis of soils on Mars. Detailed studies of soil development and the chemical and mineralogical alterations occurring within soil columns in Wright Valley, Antarctica show incredible complexity in the upper meter of soil. Previous workers noted the ice-free Dry Valleys are the best terrestrial approximations to contemporary Mars. Images returned from the Pathfinder and Spirit landers show similarities to surfaces observed within the Dry Valleys. Similarities to Mars that exist in these valleys are: mean temperatures always below freezing (-20 C), no rainfall, sparse snowfall-rapidly removed by sublimation, desiccating winds, diurnal freeze-thaw cycles (even during daylight hours), low humidity, oxidative environment, relatively high solar radiation and low magnetic fields . The Dry Valley soils contain irregular distributions and low abundances of soil microorganisms that are somewhat unusual on Earth. Physical processes-such as sand abrasion-are dominant mechanisms of rock weathering in Antarctica. However, chemical weathering is also an important process even in such extreme climates. For example, ionic migration occurs even in frozen soils along liquid films on individual soil particles. It has also been shown that water with liquid-like properties is present in soils at temperatures on the order of approx.-80 C and it has been observed that the percentage of oxidized iron increases with increasing soil age and enrichments in oxidized iron occurs toward the surface. The presence of evaporates is evident and appear similar to "evaporite sites" within the Pathfinder and Spirit sites. Evaporites indicate ionic migration and chemical activity even in the permanently frozen zone. The presence of evaporates indicates that chemical weathering of rocks and possibly soils has been active. Authogenic zeolites have

  19. Weather and emotional state (United States)

    Spasova, Z.


    Introduction Given the proven effects of weather on the human organism, an attempt to examine its effects on a psychic and emotional level has been made. Emotions affect the bio-tonus, working ability and concentration, hence their significance in various domains of economic life, such as health care, education, transportation, tourism, etc. Data and methods The research has been made in Sofia City within a period of 8 months, using 5 psychological methods (Eysenck Personality Questionnaire (EPQ), State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI), Test for Self-assessment of the emotional state (developed by Wessman and Ricks), Test for evaluation of moods and Test "Self-confidence - Activity - Mood" (developed by the specialists from the Military Academy in Saint Petersburg). The Fiodorov-Chubukov's complex-climatic method was used to characterize meteorological conditions because of the purpose to include in the analysis a maximal number of meteorological elements. 16 weather types are defined in dependence of the meteorological elements values according to this method. Abrupt weather changes from one day to another, defined by the same method, were considered as well. Results and discussions The results obtained by t-test show that the different categories of weather lead to changes in the emotional status, which indicates a character either positive or negative for the organism. The abrupt weather changes, according to expectations, have negative effect on human emotions but only when a transition to the cloudy weather or weather type, classified as "unfavourable" has been realized. The relationship between weather and human emotions is rather complicated since it depends on individual characteristics of people. One of these individual psychological characteristics, marked by the dimension "neuroticism", has a strong effect on emotional reactions in different weather conditions. Emotionally stable individuals are more "protected" to the weather influence on their emotions

  20. Effect of Postsowing Compaction on Cold and Frost Tolerance of North China Plain Winter Wheat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caiyun Lu


    Full Text Available Improper postsowing compaction negatively affects soil temperature and thereby cold and frost tolerance, particularly in extreme cold weather. In North China Plain, the temperature falls to 5 degrees below zero, even lower in winter, which is period for winter wheat growing. Thus improving temperature to promote wheat growth is important in this area. A field experiment from 2013 to 2016 was conducted to evaluate effects of postsowing compaction on soil temperature and plant population of wheat at different stages during wintering period. The effect of three postsowing compaction methods—(1 compacting wheel (CW, (2 crosskill roller (CR, and (3 V-shaped compacting roller after crosskill roller (VCRCR—on winter soil temperatures and relation to wheat shoot growth parameters were measured. Results showed that the highest soil midwinter temperature was in the CW treatment. In the 20 cm and 40 cm soil layer, soil temperatures were ranked in the following order of CW > VCRCR > CR. Shoot numbers under CW, CR, and VCRCR treatments were statistically 12.40% and 8.18% higher under CW treatment compared to CR or VCRCR treatments at the end of wintering period. The higher soil temperature under CW treatment resulted in higher shoot number at the end of wintering period, apparently due to reduced shoot death by cold and frost damage.

  1. Fabulous Weather Day (United States)

    Marshall, Candice; Mogil, H. Michael


    Each year, first graders at Kensington Parkwood Elementary School in Kensington, Maryland, look forward to Fabulous Weather Day. Students learn how meteorologists collect data about the weather, how they study wind, temperature, precipitation, basic types/characteristics of clouds, and how they forecast. The project helps the students grow in…

  2. Designing a Weather Station (United States)

    Roman, Harry T.


    The collection and analysis of weather data is crucial to the location of alternate energy systems like solar and wind. This article presents a design challenge that gives students a chance to design a weather station to collect data in advance of a large wind turbine installation. Data analysis is a crucial part of any science or engineering…

  3. KSC Weather and Research (United States)

    Maier, Launa; Huddleston, Lisa; Smith, Kristin


    This briefing outlines the history of Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Weather organization, past research sponsored or performed, current organization, responsibilities, and activities, the evolution of weather support, future technologies, and an update on the status of the buoys located offshore of Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and KSC.

  4. Weather and road capacity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Thomas Christian


    The paper presents estimations of the effect of bad weather on the observed speed on a Danish highway section; Køge Bugt Motorvejen. The paper concludes that weather, primarily precipitation and snow, has a clear negative effect on speed when the road is not in hypercongestion mode. Furthermore...

  5. Weathering and weathering rates of natural stone (United States)

    Winkler, Erhard M.


    Physical and chemical weathering were studied as separate processes in the past. Recent research, however, shows that most processes are physicochemical in nature. The rates at which calcite and silica weather by dissolution are dependent on the regional and local climatic environment. The weathering of silicate rocks leaves discolored margins and rinds, a function of the rocks' permeability and of the climatic parameters. Salt action, the greatest disruptive factor, is complex and not yet fully understood in all its phases, but some of the causes of disruption are crystallization pressure, hydration pressure, and hygroscopic attraction of excess moisture. The decay of marble is complex, an interaction between disolution, crack-corrosion, and expansion-contraction cycies triggered by the release of residual stresses. Thin spalls of granites commonly found near the street level of buildings are generally caused by a combination of stress relief and salt action. To study and determine weathering rates of a variety of commercial stones, the National Bureau of Standards erected a Stone Exposure Test Wall in 1948. Of the many types of stone represented, only a few fossiliferous limestones permit a valid measurement of surface reduction in a polluted urban environment.

  6. Fair weather atmospheric electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harrison, R G


    Not long after Franklin's iconic studies, an atmospheric electric field was discovered in 'fair weather' regions, well away from thunderstorms. The origin of the fair weather field was sought by Lord Kelvin, through development of electrostatic instrumentation and early data logging techniques, but was ultimately explained through the global circuit model of C.T.R. Wilson. In Wilson's model, charge exchanged by disturbed weather electrifies the ionosphere, and returns via a small vertical current density in fair weather regions. New insights into the relevance of fair weather atmospheric electricity to terrestrial and planetary atmospheres are now emerging. For example, there is a possible role of the global circuit current density in atmospheric processes, such as cloud formation. Beyond natural atmospheric processes, a novel practical application is the use of early atmospheric electrostatic investigations to provide quantitative information on past urban air pollution.

  7. Cold-Weather Engineering, Chapters 1 to 5 (United States)


    Ranger .Station-,, Wyoming in Yellowstone - Park •On 9. February 1933-the reputation of tbe Arc- tic for-a-chilly climate begins" to be seen ia There...ät or heart, shot x» pre- -mscu. — •*• ***** - —~~x~ ^- - - — —-— ferable* , ’ ^ Fig1, ä. •*-• Mountain Qoat, ’ wolves

  8. Natural ventilation in organic poultry houses in cold weather (United States)

    This topic was suggested as a way to address concerns with winter ventilation and temperature control. The suggestion came with a request that the presentation cover “proper management in cooler ambient temps. The broad issue is most organic egg production is brown and these birds have an easy abil...

  9. Cold weather hydrogen generation system and method of operation (United States)

    Dreier, Ken Wayne; Kowalski, Michael Thomas; Porter, Stephen Charles; Chow, Oscar Ken; Borland, Nicholas Paul; Goyette, Stephen Arthur


    A system for providing hydrogen gas is provided. The system includes a hydrogen generator that produces gas from water. One or more heat generation devices are arranged to provide heating of the enclosure during different modes of operation to prevent freezing of components. A plurality of temperature sensors are arranged and coupled to a controller to selectively activate a heat source if the temperature of the component is less than a predetermined temperature.

  10. Cold weather damages promising species in the Wind River Arboretum. (United States)

    R.W. Steele


    Before an introduced tree species is. recommended for wide-scale forest planting, its adaption to the local climate and soil should be carefully checked over a long period of years. This need has been clearly demonstrated at the Wind River Arboretum where many introduced species are being evaluated for possible use in plantations. The purpose of this note is to call...

  11. A Human Factors Evaluation of Cold Weather Headgear (United States)


    done in which the hood was replaced by a balaclava-type helmet and the parka was modified by the addition of a standup collar with alpaca facing...checked. Whl ern h il ake ihlnradete f h aswt afasdw 2and fastened in front of the chin, the subject was asked to drink water from a glass and was...permitted to smoke. The subject was asked if he experienced any difficulty drinking the water and if he would find it difficult to blow his nose or eat

  12. Detection of trends in precipitation extremes in Zhejiang, east China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tian, Ye; Xu, YuePing; Booij, Martijn J.; Lin, Shengji; Zhang, Qingqing; Lou, Zhanghua


    Extreme weather exerts a huge impact on human beings and it is of vital importance to study the regular pattern of meteorological and hydrological factors. In this paper, a selection of seven extreme indices is used to analyze the trend of precipitation extremes of 18 meteorological stations located

  13. The Engineering for Climate Extremes Partnership (United States)

    Holland, G. J.; Tye, M. R.


    Hurricane Sandy and the recent floods in Thailand have demonstrated not only how sensitive the urban environment is to the impact of severe weather, but also the associated global reach of the ramifications. These, together with other growing extreme weather impacts and the increasing interdependence of global commercial activities point towards a growing vulnerability to weather and climate extremes. The Engineering for Climate Extremes Partnership brings academia, industry and government together with the goals encouraging joint activities aimed at developing new, robust, and well-communicated responses to this increasing vulnerability. Integral to the approach is the concept of 'graceful failure' in which flexible designs are adopted that protect against failure by combining engineering or network strengths with a plan for efficient and rapid recovery if and when they fail. Such an approach enables optimal planning for both known future scenarios and their assessed uncertainty.

  14. Aircraft Weather Mitigation for the Next Generation Air Transportation System (United States)

    Stough, H. Paul, III


    Atmospheric effects on aviation are described by Mahapatra (1999) as including (1) atmospheric phenomena involving air motion - wind shear and turbulence; (2) hydrometeorological phenomena - rain, snow and hail; (3) aircraft icing; (4) low visibility; and (5) atmospheric electrical phenomena. Aircraft Weather Mitigation includes aircraft systems (e.g. airframe, propulsion, avionics, controls) that can be enacted (by a pilot, automation or hybrid systems) to suppress and/or prepare for the effects of encountered or unavoidable weather or to facilitate a crew operational decision-making process relative to weather. Aircraft weather mitigation can be thought of as a continuum (Figure 1) with the need to avoid all adverse weather at one extreme and the ability to safely operate in all weather conditions at the other extreme. Realistic aircraft capabilities fall somewhere between these two extremes. The capabilities of small general aviation aircraft would be expected to fall closer to the "Avoid All Adverse Weather" point, and the capabilities of large commercial jet transports would fall closer to the "Operate in All Weather Conditions" point. The ability to safely operate in adverse weather conditions is dependent upon the pilot s capabilities (training, total experience and recent experience), the airspace in which the operation is taking place (terrain, navigational aids, traffic separation), the capabilities of the airport (approach guidance, runway and taxiway lighting, availability of air traffic control), as well as the capabilities of the airplane. The level of mitigation may vary depending upon the type of adverse weather. For example, a small general aviation airplane may be equipped to operate "in the clouds" without outside visual references, but not be equipped to prevent airframe ice that could be accreted in those clouds.

  15. Sun, weather, and climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herman, J.R.; Goldberg, R.A.


    The general field of sun-weather/climate relationships that is, apparent weather and climate responses to solar activity is introduced and theoretical and experimental suggestions for further research to identify and investigate the unknown casual mechanisms are provided. Topics of discussion include: (1) solar-related correlation factors and energy sources; (2) long-term climate trends; (3) short-term meteorological correlations; (4) miscellaneous obscuring influences; (5) physical processes and mechanisms; (6) recapitulation of sun-weather relationships; and (7) guidelines for experiments. 300 references

  16. Grooved cold moderator tests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inoue, K.; Kiyanagi, Y.; Iwasa, H.; Watanabe, N.; Ikeda, S.; Carpenter, J.M.; Ishikawa, Y.


    We performed some grooved cold moderator experiments for methane at 20 K by using the Hokkaido University linac to obtain information to be used in the planning of the KENS-I' project. Cold neutron gains, spatial distribution of emitted beams and time distribution of the neutrons in the grooved cold moderator were measured. Furthermore, we assessed the effects of the grooved cold moderator on the performances of the spectrometers presently installed at the KENS-I cold source. We concluded that the grooved cold moderator benefited appreciably the performances of the spectrometers

  17. Finishing of the cold mass assembly

    CERN Multimedia

    Patrice Loïez


    Photo 1 Technicians are putting in order the instrumentation wires. The prototype magnets were equipped with numerous sensors to monitor key parameters during the performance tests at cold conditions. Photo 2 The cold mass assembly is resting on special supports in order to allow the finishing operations. Technicians are putting in order the instrumentation wires. The prototype magnets were equipped with numerous sensors to monitor key parameters during the performance tests at cold conditions. Photo 3 View of the lyre-side end of the active part assembly. The extremity of the shrinking cylinder has been bevelled in view of welding the end cover. Photo 4 General view of the finishing station showing the special supporting structures (blue and yellow structures) needed for the geometric measurements and for the alignment operations. One can also see the light building surrounding the finishing station, which purpose is to isolate the laser measuring machines from disturbances. Photo 5 The extremity of the shri...

  18. Weathering and genesis of Soils from Ellsworth Mountains, East Antarctica (United States)

    Karoline Delpupo Souza, Katia; Schaefer, Carlos Ernesto; Michel, Roberto; Monari, Julia; Machado, Vania


    Knowledge on Antarctic soils from the Ellsworth Mountains (EM) are patchy comparatively with Dry Valleys soils from the Transantartic Mountains, and could help understand the genesis of cryogenic soils under extreme dry, cold desert conditions. The EM are a slightly arcuate 350-km-long north-northwest-trending mountain chain is bordered on the west by the polar plateau of West Antarctica and on the east by Ronne Ice Shelf. The range is as much as 90 km wide and constitutes one of the largest areas of exposed bedrock in West Antarctica. The stratigraphic succession in the EM includes strata from Cambriam to Permian in age. The objective of this study is to analyze the properties of soils from EM in order to identify the main factors and processes involved in soil formation under cold desert conditions in Antarctica. The sampling design aimed to represent the different geological substrates (marble-clast conglomerate, graywacke, argillite, conglomerate, black shale, marble and quartzite) as well as altitudinal levels and landforms within the same substrate. We characterized soils from EM regarding their morphological, physics and chemical properties. Soil samples were air dried and passed through 2 mm sieves. After removal of water soluble salts, the samples were submitted to chemical and physical analyses such as: pH in water, potential acidity (H + Al), exchangeable bases, total organic carbon, electric conductivity, soil texture and color. The soils classify, for the most part, in weathering stages 1 to 2. Only in the upper parts of ridges were there traces of soils at weathering stage 3. This indicates that much of the present icefree topography has been overridden by ice within the last few hundred thousand years. Cryoturbation is a widespread phenomenon in this area resulting in intense cryoclastic weathering and patterned ground, forming sorted circles, stripes and gelifluxion lobes. The soil show low horizontation, discrete patches of salt on the surface, and

  19. Using mobile, internet connected deep sea crawlers for spatial and temporal analysis of cold seep ecosystems and the collection of real-time classroom data for extreme environment education. (United States)

    Purser, Autun; Kwasnitschka, Tom; Duda, Alexander; Schwendner, Jakob; Bamberg, Marlene; Sohl, Frank; Doya, Carol; Aguzzi, Jacopo; Best, Mairi; Llovet, Neus Campanya I.; Scherwath, Martin; Thomsen, Laurenz


    Cabled internet and power connectivity with the deep sea allow instruments to operate in the deep sea at higher temporal resolutions than was possible historically, with the reliance on battery life and data storage capacities. In addition to the increase in sensor temporal frequency, cabled infrastructures now allow remote access to and control of mobile platforms on the seafloor. Jacobs University Bremen, in combination with collaborators from the Robotic Exploration of Extreme Environments (ROBEX) project, CSIC Barcelona and Ocean Networks Canada have been operating tracked deep sea crawler vehicles at ~890 m depth at the dynamic Barkley Canyon methane seep site, Pacific Canada during the last ~4 years. The vehicle has been able to explore an area of ~50 m radius, allowing repeated visits to numerous microhabitats. Mounting a range of sensors, including temperature, pressure, conductivity, fluorescence, turbidity, flow and methane concentration sensors, as well as various camera systems a large dataset has been compiled. Several methane pockmarks are present in the survey area, and geological, biological and oceanographic changes have been monitored over a range of timescales. Several publications have been produced, and in this presentation we introduce further data currently under analysis. Cabled internet connectivity further allows mobile platforms to be used directly in education. As part of the ROBEX project, researchers and students from both terrestrial and planetary sciences are using the crawler in an ongoing study project. Students are introduced to statistical methods from both fields during the course and in later stages they can plan their own research using the in-situ crawler, and follow the progress of their investigations live, then analyse the collected data using the techniques introduced during the course. Cabled infrastructures offer a unique facility for spatial investigation of extreme ecosystems over time, and for the 'hands on

  20. The 2009–2010 Arctic stratospheric winter – general evolution, mountain waves and predictability of an operational weather forecast model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Dörnbrack


    Full Text Available The relatively warm 2009–2010 Arctic winter was an exceptional one as the North Atlantic Oscillation index attained persistent extreme negative values. Here, selected aspects of the Arctic stratosphere during this winter inspired by the analysis of the international field experiment RECONCILE are presented. First of all, and as a kind of reference, the evolution of the polar vortex in its different phases is documented. Special emphasis is put on explaining the formation of the exceptionally cold vortex in mid winter after a sequence of stratospheric disturbances which were caused by upward propagating planetary waves. A major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW occurring near the end of January 2010 concluded the anomalous cold vortex period. Wave ice polar stratospheric clouds were frequently observed by spaceborne remote-sensing instruments over the Arctic during the cold period in January 2010. Here, one such case observed over Greenland is analysed in more detail and an attempt is made to correlate flow information of an operational numerical weather prediction model to the magnitude of the mountain-wave induced temperature fluctuations. Finally, it is shown that the forecasts of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system for the onset of the major SSW were very skilful and the ensemble spread was very small. However, the ensemble spread increased dramatically after the major SSW, displaying the strong non-linearity and internal variability involved in the SSW event.

  1. Uruguay - Surface Weather Observations (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface weather observation forms for 26 stations in Uruguay. Period of record 1896-2005, with two to eight observations per day. Files created through a...

  2. Weather Information Processing (United States)


    Science Communications International (SCI), formerly General Science Corporation, has developed several commercial products based upon experience acquired as a NASA Contractor. Among them are METPRO, a meteorological data acquisition and processing system, which has been widely used, RISKPRO, an environmental assessment system, and MAPPRO, a geographic information system. METPRO software is used to collect weather data from satellites, ground-based observation systems and radio weather broadcasts to generate weather maps, enabling potential disaster areas to receive advance warning. GSC's initial work for NASA Goddard Space Flight Center resulted in METPAK, a weather satellite data analysis system. METPAK led to the commercial METPRO system. The company also provides data to other government agencies, U.S. embassies and foreign countries.

  3. Oil Rig Weather Observations (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather observations taken at offshore platforms along the United States coastlines. The majority are located in oil-rich areas of the Gulf of Mexico, Gulf of...

  4. Waste glass weathering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bates, J.K.; Buck, E.C.


    The weathering of glass is reviewed by examining processes that affect the reaction of commercial, historical, natural, and nuclear waste glass under conditions of contact with humid air and slowly dripping water, which may lead to immersion in nearly static solution. Radionuclide release data from weathered glass under conditions that may exist in an unsaturated environment are presented and compared to release under standard leaching conditions. While the comparison between the release under weathering and leaching conditions is not exact, due to variability of reaction in humid air, evidence is presented of radionuclide release under a variety of conditions. These results suggest that both the amount and form of radionuclide release can be affected by the weathering of glass

  5. Cape Kennedy Weather Data (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Digitized data taken from original weather observations taken at Cape Kennedy Air Force Station, Florida. Elements recorded are wind speed and direction,...

  6. Winter weather demand considerations. (United States)


    Winter weather has varied effects on travel behavior. Using 418 survey responses from the Northern Virginia : commuting area of Washington, D.C. and binary logit models, this study examines travel related changes under : different types of winter wea...

  7. NOAA Weather Radio (United States)

    del tiempo incluido. Si eres quieres ser avisado de las advertencias y relojes de día o de noche, un Weather Radio relojes son independientes o basadas en el Condado (parroquia basados en Luisiana), aunque

  8. Space Weather Products (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Collection includes a variety of space weather datasets from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and from the World Data Service for Geophysics,...

  9. Daily Weather Maps (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Several different government offices have published the Daily weather maps over its history. The publication has also gone by different names over time. The U.S....

  10. Surface Weather Observations Monthly (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface Weather Observation 1001 Forms is a set of historical manuscript records for the period 1893-1948. The collection includes two very similar form types: Form...

  11. Cold atoms close to surfaces

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krüger, Peter; Wildermuth, Stephan; Hofferberth, Sebastian


    Microscopic atom optical devices integrated on atom chips allow to precisely control and manipulate ultra-cold (T atoms and Bose-Einstein condensates (BECs) close to surfaces. The relevant energy scale of a BEC is extremely small (down to ... be utilized as a sensor for variations of the potential energy of the atoms close to the surface. Here we describe how to use trapped atoms as a measurement device and analyze the performance and flexibility of the field sensor. We demonstrate microscopic magnetic imaging with simultaneous high spatial...

  12. Cold rolling precision forming of shaft parts theory and technologies

    CERN Document Server

    Song, Jianli; Li, Yongtang


    This book presents in detail the theory, processes and equipment involved in cold rolling precision forming technologies, focusing on spline and thread shaft parts. The main topics discussed include the status quo of research on cold rolling precision forming technologies; the design and calculation of process parameters; the numerical simulation of cold rolling forming processes; and the equipment used in cold rolling forming. The mechanism of cold rolling forming is extremely complex, and research on the processes, theory and mechanical analysis of spline cold rolling forming has remained very limited to date. In practice, the forming processes and production methods used are mainly chosen on the basis of individual experience. As such, there is a marked lack of both systematic, theory-based guidelines, and of specialized books covering theoretical analysis, numerical simulation, experiments and equipment used in spline cold rolling forming processes – all key points that are included in this book and ill...

  13. Conceptualizing Cold Disasters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauta, Kristian Cedervall; Dahlberg, Rasmus; Vendelø, Morten Thanning


    In the present article, we explore in more depth the particular circumstances and characteristics of governing what we call ‘cold disasters’, and thereby, the paper sets out to investigate how disasters in cold contexts distinguish themselves from other disasters, and what the implications hereof...... are for the conceptualization and governance of cold disasters. Hence, the paper can also be viewed as a response to Alexander’s (2012a) recent call for new theory in the field of disaster risk reduction. The article is structured in four overall parts. The first part, Cold Context, provides an overview of the specific...... conditions in a cold context, exemplified by the Arctic, and zooms in on Greenland to provide more specific background for the paper. The second part, Disasters in Cold Contexts, discusses “cold disasters” in relation to disaster theory, in order to, elucidate how cold disasters challenge existing...

  14. Working in the Cold

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    During the winter, many workers are outdoors, working in cold, wet, icy, or snowy conditions. Learn how to identify symptoms that tell you there may be a problem and protect yourself from cold stress.

  15. Colds and the Flu (United States)

    ... disease (COPD). What medicines can I give my child? There is no cure for the cold or the flu, and antibiotics do not work against the viruses that cause colds and the flu. Pain relievers such as ...

  16. Cold knife cone biopsy (United States)

    ... biopsy; Pap smear - cone biopsy; HPV - cone biopsy; Human papilloma virus - cone biopsy; Cervix - cone biopsy; Colposcopy - cone biopsy Images Female reproductive anatomy Cold cone biopsy Cold cone removal References Baggish ...

  17. Cold medicines and children (United States)

    ... ingredient. Avoid giving more than one OTC cold medicine to your child. It may cause an overdose with severe side ... the dosage instructions strictly while giving an OTC medicine to your child. When giving OTC cold medicines to your child: ...

  18. Temporal associations between weather and headache: analysis by empirical mode decomposition.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Albert C Yang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Patients frequently report that weather changes trigger headache or worsen existing headache symptoms. Recently, the method of empirical mode decomposition (EMD has been used to delineate temporal relationships in certain diseases, and we applied this technique to identify intrinsic weather components associated with headache incidence data derived from a large-scale epidemiological survey of headache in the Greater Taipei area. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The study sample consisted of 52 randomly selected headache patients. The weather time-series parameters were detrended by the EMD method into a set of embedded oscillatory components, i.e. intrinsic mode functions (IMFs. Multiple linear regression models with forward stepwise methods were used to analyze the temporal associations between weather and headaches. We found no associations between the raw time series of weather variables and headache incidence. For decomposed intrinsic weather IMFs, temperature, sunshine duration, humidity, pressure, and maximal wind speed were associated with headache incidence during the cold period, whereas only maximal wind speed was associated during the warm period. In analyses examining all significant weather variables, IMFs derived from temperature and sunshine duration data accounted for up to 33.3% of the variance in headache incidence during the cold period. The association of headache incidence and weather IMFs in the cold period coincided with the cold fronts. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Using EMD analysis, we found a significant association between headache and intrinsic weather components, which was not detected by direct comparisons of raw weather data. Contributing weather parameters may vary in different geographic regions and different seasons.

  19. “It Was Raining All the Time!”: Ex Post Tourist Weather Perceptions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Gössling


    Full Text Available The importance of weather for tourism is now widely recognized. However, no research has so far addressed weather events from retrospective viewpoints, and, in particular, the role of “extreme” events in longer-term holiday memories. To better understand the character of ex post weather experiences and their importance in destination image perceptions and future travel planning behavior, this exploratory study addressed a sample of 50 tourists from three globally important source markets: Austria, Germany and Switzerland. Results indicate that weather events do not dominate long-term memories of tourist experiences. Yet, weather events are important in shaping destination image, with “rain” being the single most important weather variable negatively influencing perceptions. Results also suggest that weather events perceived as extreme can involve considerable emotions. The study of ex post traveler memories consequently makes a valuable contribution to the understanding of the complexity of “extreme weather” events for tourist demand responses.

  20. Cold-Adapted Enzymes (United States)

    Georlette, D.; Bentahir, M.; Claverie, P.; Collins, T.; D'amico, S.; Delille, D.; Feller, G.; Gratia, E.; Hoyoux, A.; Lonhienne, T.; Meuwis, M.-a.; Zecchinon, L.; Gerday, Ch.

    In the last few years, increased attention has been focused on enzymes produced by cold-adapted micro-organisms. It has emerged that psychrophilic enzymes represent an extremely powerful tool in both protein folding investigations and for biotechnological purposes. Such enzymes are characterised by an increased thermosensitivity and, most of them, by a higher catalytic efficiency at low and moderate temperatures, when compared to their mesophilic counterparts. The high thermosensitivity probably originates from an increased flexibility of either a selected area of the molecular edifice or the overall protein structure, providing enhanced abilities to undergo conformational changes during catalysis at low temperatures. Structure modelling and recent crystallographic data have allowed to elucidate the structural parameters that could be involved in this higher resilience. It was demonstrated that each psychrophilic enzyme adopts its own adaptive strategy. It appears, moreover, that there is a continuum in the strategy of protein adaptation to temperature, as the previously mentioned structural parameters are implicated in the stability of thermophilic proteins. Additional 3D crystal structures, site-directed and random mutagenesis experiments should now be undertaken to further investigate the stability-flexibility-activity relationship.

  1. Extreme Heat: A Prevention Guide to Promote Your Personal Health and Safety (United States)

    ... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

  2. Rainfall Variability and the Recent Climate Extremes in Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Recently, large and extended weather and climate extremes were recorded in different parts of the country, causing significant socio-economic impacts. Weather patterns affecting the country are driven by the northward and southward movement of the Inter-Tropical Discontinuity (ITD) as well as developments within the ...

  3. The effects of synoptic weather on influenza infection incidences: a retrospective study utilizing digital disease surveillance (United States)

    Zhao, Naizhuo; Cao, Guofeng; Vanos, Jennifer K.; Vecellio, Daniel J.


    The environmental drivers and mechanisms of influenza dynamics remain unclear. The recent development of influenza surveillance-particularly the emergence of digital epidemiology-provides an opportunity to further understand this puzzle as an area within applied human biometeorology. This paper investigates the short-term weather effects on human influenza activity at a synoptic scale during cold seasons. Using 10 years (2005-2014) of municipal level influenza surveillance data (an adjustment of the Google Flu Trends estimation from the Centers for Disease Control's virologic surveillance data) and daily spatial synoptic classification weather types, we explore and compare the effects of weather exposure on the influenza infection incidences in 79 cities across the USA. We find that during the cold seasons the presence of the polar [i.e., dry polar (DP) and moist polar (MP)] weather types is significantly associated with increasing influenza likelihood in 62 and 68% of the studied cities, respectively, while the presence of tropical [i.e., dry tropical (DT) and moist tropical (MT)] weather types is associated with a significantly decreasing occurrence of influenza in 56 and 43% of the cities, respectively. The MP and the DP weather types exhibit similar close positive correlations with influenza infection incidences, indicating that both cold-dry and cold-moist air provide favorable conditions for the occurrence of influenza in the cold seasons. Additionally, when tropical weather types are present, the humid (MT) and the dry (DT) weather types have similar strong impacts to inhibit the occurrence of influenza. These findings suggest that temperature is a more dominating atmospheric factor than moisture that impacts the occurrences of influenza in cold seasons.

  4. Cold and heat waves in the United States. (United States)

    Barnett, A G; Hajat, S; Gasparrini, A; Rocklöv, J


    Extreme cold and heat waves, characterized by a number of cold or hot days in succession, place a strain on people's cardiovascular and respiratory systems. The increase in deaths due to these waves may be greater than that predicted by extreme temperatures alone. We examined cold and heat waves in 99 US cities for 14 years (1987-2000) and investigated how the risk of death depended on the temperature threshold used to define a wave, and a wave's timing, duration and intensity. We defined cold and heat waves using temperatures above and below cold and heat thresholds for two or more days. We tried five cold thresholds using the first to fifth percentiles of temperature, and five heat thresholds using the 95-99 percentiles. The extra wave effects were estimated using a two-stage model to ensure that their effects were estimated after removing the general effects of temperature. The increases in deaths associated with cold waves were generally small and not statistically significant, and there was even evidence of a decreased risk during the coldest waves. Heat waves generally increased the risk of death, particularly for the hottest heat threshold. Cold waves of a colder intensity or longer duration were not more dangerous. Cold waves earlier in the cool season were more dangerous, as were heat waves earlier in the warm season. In general there was no increased risk of death during cold waves above the known increased risk associated with cold temperatures. Cold or heat waves earlier in the cool or warm season may be more dangerous because of a build up in the susceptible pool or a lack of preparedness for extreme temperatures. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Casebook on application for weather

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    This book introduces the excellent cases on application using weather at the industry, research center and public office. It lists the names and application cases in 2008 and 2009, which includes research on decease in risk by weather in the industry by Sam sung institute of safety and environment, service on weather information for people by KT, application with weather information in the flight by Korean air, use on weather information for prevention of disasters by Masan city hall, upgrade for business with weather marketing, center for river forecast in NOAA and the case using weather management for high profit margins.

  6. Villages in Nepal prepare for weather extremes | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)


    Mar 22, 2012 ... Research focus To assess the vulnerability of rural communities in Nepal's diverse ... In 2010, the Institute for Social and Environmental Transition-Nepal ... Through continuous interaction with each community, the team ...

  7. Petroleum Release Assessment and Impacts of Weather Extremes (United States)

    Contaminated ground water and vapor intrusion are two major exposure pathways of concern at petroleum release sites. EPA has recently developed a model for petroleum vapor intrusion, called PVIScreen, which incorporates variability and uncertainty in input parameters. This ap...

  8. Cold-Hearted or Cool-Headed: Physical Coldness Promotes Utilitarian Moral Judgment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hiroko eNakamura


    Full Text Available In the current study, we examine the effect of physical coldness on personal moral dilemma judgment. Previous studies have indicated that utilitarian moral judgment—sacrificing a few people to achieve the greater good for others—was facilitated when: (1 participants suppressed an initial emotional response and deliberately thought about the utility of outcomes; (2 participants had a high-level construal mindset and focused on abstract goals (e.g., save many; or (3 there was a decreasing emotional response to sacrificing a few. In two experiments, we exposed participants to extreme cold or typical room temperature and then asked them to make personal moral dilemma judgments. The results of Experiment 1 indicated that coldness prompted utilitarian judgment, but the effect of coldness was independent from deliberate thought or abstract high-level construal mindset. As Experiment 2 revealed, coldness facilitated utilitarian judgment via reduced empathic feelings. Therefore, physical coldness did not affect the cool-headed deliberate process or the abstract high-level construal mindset. Rather, coldness biased people toward being cold-hearted, reduced empathetic concern about a sacrificed victim, and facilitated utilitarian moral judgments.

  9. Temperature Variation and Heat Wave and Cold Spell Impacts on Years of Life Lost Among the Urban Poor Population of Nairobi, Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thaddaeus Egondi


    Full Text Available Weather extremes are associated with adverse health outcomes, including mortality. Studies have investigated the mortality risk of temperature in terms of excess mortality, however, this risk estimate may not be appealing to policy makers assessing the benefits expected for any interventions to be adopted. To provide further evidence of the burden of extreme temperatures, we analyzed the effect of temperature on years of life lost (YLL due to all-cause mortality among the population in two urban informal settlements. YLL was generated based on the life expectancy of the population during the study period by applying a survival analysis approach. Association between daily maximum temperature and YLL was assessed using a distributed lag nonlinear model. In addition, cold spell and heat wave effects, as defined according to different percentiles, were investigated. The exposure-response curve between temperature and YLL was J-shaped, with the minimum mortality temperature (MMT of 26 °C. An average temperature of 21 °C compared to the MMT was associated with an increase of 27.4 YLL per day (95% CI, 2.7–52.0 years. However, there was no additional effect for extended periods of cold spells, nor did we find significant associations between YLL to heat or heat waves. Overall, increased YLL from all-causes were associated with cold spells indicating the need for initiating measure for reducing health burdens.

  10. Seasonal temperature extremes in Potsdam (United States)

    Kundzewicz, Zbigniew; Huang, Shaochun


    The awareness of global warming is well established and results from the observations made on thousands of stations. This paper complements the large-scale results by examining a long time-series of high-quality temperature data from the Secular Meteorological Station in Potsdam, where observation records over the last 117 years, i.e., from January 1893 are available. Tendencies of change in seasonal temperature-related climate extremes are demonstrated. "Cold" extremes have become less frequent and less severe than in the past, while "warm" extremes have become more frequent and more severe. Moreover, the interval of the occurrence of frost has been decreasing, while the interval of the occurrence of hot days has been increasing. However, many changes are not statistically significant, since the variability of temperature indices at the Potsdam station has been very strong.

  11. Weather derivatives: Business hedge instrument from weather risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Đorđević Bojan S.


    Full Text Available In the late 1990s, a new financial market was developed - a market for weather derivatives, so that the risk managers could hedge their exposure to weather risk. After a rather slow start, the weather derivatives market had started to grow rapidly. Risk managers could no longer blame poor financial results on the weather. Weather risk could now be removed by hedging procedure. This paper will explain briefly what the weather derivatives are and will point out at some of the motives for use of derivatives. Thereafter we will look at the history of the weather risk market, how the weather derivatives market has developed in recent years and also who are the current and potential players in the weather derivatives market.

  12. Urban climate effects on extreme temperatures in Madison, Wisconsin, USA (United States)

    Schatz, Jason; Kucharik, Christopher J.


    As climate change increases the frequency and intensity of extreme heat, cities and their urban heat island (UHI) effects are growing, as are the urban populations encountering them. These mutually reinforcing trends present a growing risk for urban populations. However, we have limited understanding of urban climates during extreme temperature episodes, when additional heat from the UHI may be most consequential. We observed a historically hot summer and historically cold winter using an array of up to 150 temperature and relative humidity sensors in and around Madison, Wisconsin, an urban area of population 402 000 surrounded by lakes and a rural landscape of agriculture, forests, wetlands, and grasslands. In the summer of 2012 (third hottest since 1869), Madison’s urban areas experienced up to twice as many hours ⩾32.2 °C (90 °F), mean July TMAX up to 1.8 °C higher, and mean July TMIN up to 5.3 °C higher than rural areas. During a record setting heat wave, dense urban areas spent over four consecutive nights above the National Weather Service nighttime heat stress threshold of 26.7 °C (80 °F), while rural areas fell below 26.7 °C nearly every night. In the winter of 2013-14 (coldest in 35 years), Madison’s most densely built urban areas experienced up to 40% fewer hours ⩽-17.8 °C (0 °F), mean January TMAX up to 1 °C higher, and mean January TMIN up to 3 °C higher than rural areas. Spatially, the UHI tended to be most intense in areas with higher population densities. Temporally, both daytime and nighttime UHIs tended to be slightly more intense during more-extreme heat days compared to average summer days. These results help us understand the climates for which cities must prepare in a warming, urbanizing world.

  13. Explaining the road accident risk: weather effects. (United States)

    Bergel-Hayat, Ruth; Debbarh, Mohammed; Antoniou, Constantinos; Yannis, George


    This research aims to highlight the link between weather conditions and road accident risk at an aggregate level and on a monthly basis, in order to improve road safety monitoring at a national level. It is based on some case studies carried out in Work Package 7 on "Data analysis and synthesis" of the EU-FP6 project "SafetyNet-Building the European Road Safety Observatory", which illustrate the use of weather variables for analysing changes in the number of road injury accidents. Time series analysis models with explanatory variables that measure the weather quantitatively were used and applied to aggregate datasets of injury accidents for France, the Netherlands and the Athens region, over periods of more than 20 years. The main results reveal significant correlations on a monthly basis between weather variables and the aggregate number of injury accidents, but the magnitude and even the sign of these correlations vary according to the type of road (motorways, rural roads or urban roads). Moreover, in the case of the interurban network in France, it appears that the rainfall effect is mainly direct on motorways--exposure being unchanged, and partly indirect on main roads--as a result of changes in exposure. Additional results obtained on a daily basis for the Athens region indicate that capturing the within-the-month variability of the weather variables and including it in a monthly model highlights the effects of extreme weather. Such findings are consistent with previous results obtained for France using a similar approach, with the exception of the negative correlation between precipitation and the number of injury accidents found for the Athens region, which is further investigated. The outlook for the approach and its added value are discussed in the conclusion. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  14. How cold is cold dark matter?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Armendariz-Picon, Cristian; Neelakanta, Jayanth T.


    If cold dark matter consists of particles, these must be non-interacting and non-relativistic by definition. In most cold dark matter models however, dark matter particles inherit a non-vanishing velocity dispersion from interactions in the early universe, a velocity that redshifts with cosmic expansion but certainly remains non-zero. In this article, we place model-independent constraints on the dark matter temperature to mass ratio, whose square root determines the dark matter velocity dispersion. We only assume that dark matter particles decoupled kinetically while non-relativistic, when galactic scales had not entered the horizon yet, and that their momentum distribution has been Maxwellian since that time. Under these assumptions, using cosmic microwave background and matter power spectrum observations, we place upper limits on the temperature to mass ratio of cold dark matter today (away from collapsed structures). These limits imply that the present cold dark matter velocity dispersion has to be smaller than 54 m/s. Cold dark matter has to be quite cold, indeed

  15. Monitoring and understanding changes in heat waves, cold waves, floods, and droughts in the United States: State of knowledge (United States)

    Peterson, Thomas C.; Heim, Richard R.; Hirsch, Robert M.; Kaiser, Dale P.; Brooks, Harold; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Dole, Randall M.; Giovannettone, Jason P.; Guirguis, Kristen; Karl, Thomas R.; Katz, Richard W.; Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; McCabe, Gregory J.; Paciorek, Christopher J.; Ryberg, Karen R.; K Wolter, BS Silva; Schubert, Siegfried; Silva, Viviane B. S.; Stewart, Brooke C.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Villarini, Gabriele; Vose, Russell S.; Walsh, John; Wehner, Michael; Wolock, David; Wolter, Klaus; Woodhouse, Connie A.; Wuebbles, Donald


    Weather and climate extremes have been varying and changing on many different time scales. In recent decades, heat waves have generally become more frequent across the United States, while cold waves have been decreasing. While this is in keeping with expectations in a warming climate, it turns out that decadal variations in the number of U.S. heat and cold waves do not correlate well with the observed U.S. warming during the last century. Annual peak flow data reveal that river flooding trends on the century scale do not show uniform changes across the country. While flood magnitudes in the Southwest have been decreasing, flood magnitudes in the Northeast and north-central United States have been increasing. Confounding the analysis of trends in river flooding is multiyear and even multidecadal variability likely caused by both large-scale atmospheric circulation changes and basin-scale “memory” in the form of soil moisture. Droughts also have long-term trends as well as multiyear and decadal variability. Instrumental data indicate that the Dust Bowl of the 1930s and the drought in the 1950s were the most significant twentieth-century droughts in the United States, while tree ring data indicate that the megadroughts over the twelfth century exceeded anything in the twentieth century in both spatial extent and duration. The state of knowledge of the factors that cause heat waves, cold waves, floods, and drought to change is fairly good with heat waves being the best understood.

  16. Cockpit weather graphics using mobile satellite communications (United States)

    Seth, Shashi


    Many new companies are pushing state-of-the-art technology to bring a revolution in the cockpits of General Aviation (GA) aircraft. The vision, according to Dr. Bruce Holmes - the Assistant Director for Aeronautics at National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Langley Research Center, is to provide such an advanced flight control system that the motor and cognitive skills you use to drive a car would be very similar to the ones you would use to fly an airplane. We at ViGYAN, Inc., are currently developing a system called the Pilot Weather Advisor (PWxA), which would be a part of such an advanced technology flight management system. The PWxA provides graphical depictions of weather information in the cockpit of aircraft in near real-time, through the use of broadcast satellite communications. The purpose of this system is to improve the safety and utility of GA aircraft operations. Considerable effort is being extended for research in the design of graphical weather systems, notably the works of Scanlon and Dash. The concept of providing pilots with graphical depictions of weather conditions, overlaid on geographical and navigational maps, is extremely powerful.

  17. Attribution of climate extreme events (United States)

    Trenberth, Kevin E.; Fasullo, John T.; Shepherd, Theodore G.


    There is a tremendous desire to attribute causes to weather and climate events that is often challenging from a physical standpoint. Headlines attributing an event solely to either human-induced climate change or natural variability can be misleading when both are invariably in play. The conventional attribution framework struggles with dynamically driven extremes because of the small signal-to-noise ratios and often uncertain nature of the forced changes. Here, we suggest that a different framing is desirable, which asks why such extremes unfold the way they do. Specifically, we suggest that it is more useful to regard the extreme circulation regime or weather event as being largely unaffected by climate change, and question whether known changes in the climate system's thermodynamic state affected the impact of the particular event. Some examples briefly illustrated include 'snowmaggedon' in February 2010, superstorm Sandy in October 2012 and supertyphoon Haiyan in November 2013, and, in more detail, the Boulder floods of September 2013, all of which were influenced by high sea surface temperatures that had a discernible human component.

  18. Quantitative methods for stochastic high frequency spatio-temporal and non-linear analysis: Assessing health effects of exposure to extreme ambient temperature (United States)

    Liss, Alexander

    Extreme weather events, such as heat waves and cold spells, cause substantial excess mortality and morbidity in the vulnerable elderly population, and cost billions of dollars. The accurate and reliable assessment of adverse effects of extreme weather events on human health is crucial for environmental scientists, economists, and public health officials to ensure proper protection of vulnerable populations and efficient allocation of scarce resources. However, the methodology for the analysis of large national databases is yet to be developed. The overarching objective of this dissertation is to examine the effect of extreme weather on the elderly population of the Conterminous US (ConUS) with respect to seasonality in temperature in different climatic regions by utilizing heterogeneous high frequency and spatio-temporal resolution data. To achieve these goals the author: 1) incorporated dissimilar stochastic high frequency big data streams and distinct data types into the integrated data base for use in analytical and decision support frameworks; 2) created an automated climate regionalization system based on remote sensing and machine learning to define climate regions for the Conterminous US; 3) systematically surveyed the current state of the art and identified existing gaps in the scientific knowledge; 4) assessed the dose-response relationship of exposure to temperature extremes on human health in relatively homogeneous climate regions using different statistical models, such as parametric and non-parametric, contemporaneous and asynchronous, applied to the same data; 5) assessed seasonal peak timing and synchronization delay of the exposure and the disease within the framework of contemporaneous high frequency harmonic time series analysis and modification of the effect by the regional climate; 6) modeled using hyperbolic functional form non-linear properties of the effect of exposure to extreme temperature on human health. The proposed climate

  19. Colluvial deposits as a possible weathering reservoir in uplifting mountains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Carretier


    sparsely covered by regolith during cold periods, colluvium produces most of the simulated weathering flux for a large range of erosion parameters and precipitation rate patterns. In addition to other reservoirs such as deep fractured bedrock, colluvial deposits may help to maintain a substantial and constant weathering flux in rapidly uplifting mountains during cooling periods.

  20. Colluvial deposits as a possible weathering reservoir in uplifting mountains (United States)

    Carretier, Sébastien; Goddéris, Yves; Martinez, Javier; Reich, Martin; Martinod, Pierre


    during cold periods, colluvium produces most of the simulated weathering flux for a large range of erosion parameters and precipitation rate patterns. In addition to other reservoirs such as deep fractured bedrock, colluvial deposits may help to maintain a substantial and constant weathering flux in rapidly uplifting mountains during cooling periods.

  1. Dress for the Weather (United States)

    Glen, Nicole J.; Smetana, Lara K.


    "If someone were traveling to our area for the first time during this time of year, what would you tell them to bring to wear? Why?" This question was used to engage students in a guided-inquiry unit about how climate differs from weather. In this lesson, students explored local and national data sets to give "travelers" advice…

  2. Climate, weather, and hops (United States)

    As climate and weather become more variable, hop growers face increased uncertainty in making decisions about their crop. Given the unprecedented nature of these changes, growers may no longer have enough information and intuitive understanding to adequately assess the situation and evaluate their m...

  3. Weather and Flight Testing (United States)

    Wiley, Scott


    This viewgraph document reviews some of the weather hazards involved with flight testing. Some of the hazards reviewed are: turbulence, icing, thunderstorms and winds and windshear. Maps, pictures, satellite pictures of the meteorological phenomena and graphs are included. Also included are pictures of damaged aircraft.

  4. Cold formability of steels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lafond, G.; Leclerq, G.; Moliexe, F.; Namdar, R.; Roesch, L.; Sanz, G.


    This work was essentially aimed to the study of the following three questions. Is it possible to assess the cold formability of steels using simple material properties as criteria. What values of mechanical properties can one expect to reach in cold formed parts. Are there simple ways of characterizing the speroidization treatments carried out on steels before cold forming operations. The present report describes the results obtained during this investigation. It is logically divided into three separate parts. Experimental study of cold formability in wire drawing. Influence of metallurgical variables on mechanical properties of high carbon cold drawn wires. Contribution to the study of characterization methods of cold forming steels subjected to a spheroidization heat treatment

  5. Weatherization Works: Weatherization Assistance Program Close-Up Fact Sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    The United States demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

  6. Linking long-range weather forecasts and heat consumption as a determining factor when buying fuel chips for town heating plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rolev, A.-M.


    The aim of this study is to test whether long-range weather forecasts from the meteorological services can be used as a determining factor when buying fuel chips. In the study the fuel consumption of heating plants and the factors determining the monthly consumption are mentioned. Degree-day statistics in Denmark for the last 30 years are explained as well as the difficulties in conjunction with the prediction of long-range weather conditions. This study compares degree days in 1989-1990 month by month with the actual and theoretic chip consumption in three different heating plants the same year. The theoretic chip consumption is calculated on the basis of degree days in a ''standard year'' and the annual chip consumption of the heating plant, among other things. Furthermore, on the basis of degree-day statistics the report makes it possible to estimate the monthly chip consumption of a heating plant in a ''standard year'', in an extremely cold year (maximum degree days), and in an extremely warm year (minimum degree days). However, not everything can be predicted, and it is not yet possible to predict reliable weather forecasts for more than 5 days ahead. The study concludes that long-range weather forecasts cannot be used as a determining factor when buying fuel chips for heating plants. When buying fuel chips one must still use statistics and degree days, supplimented by figures based on experience from actual chip consumption in the individual heating plant. These figures take into consideration the different types of heating plants, as well as heat supply, chip-supplier, storing facilities, other fuels, etc. (au)

  7. Implementation of bayesian model averaging on the weather data forecasting applications utilizing open weather map (United States)

    Rahmat, R. F.; Nasution, F. R.; Seniman; Syahputra, M. F.; Sitompul, O. S.


    Weather is condition of air in a certain region at a relatively short period of time, measured with various parameters such as; temperature, air preasure, wind velocity, humidity and another phenomenons in the atmosphere. In fact, extreme weather due to global warming would lead to drought, flood, hurricane and other forms of weather occasion, which directly affects social andeconomic activities. Hence, a forecasting technique is to predict weather with distinctive output, particullary mapping process based on GIS with information about current weather status in certain cordinates of each region with capability to forecast for seven days afterward. Data used in this research are retrieved in real time from the server openweathermap and BMKG. In order to obtain a low error rate and high accuracy of forecasting, the authors use Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method. The result shows that the BMA method has good accuracy. Forecasting error value is calculated by mean square error shows (MSE). The error value emerges at minumum temperature rated at 0.28 and maximum temperature rated at 0.15. Meanwhile, the error value of minimum humidity rates at 0.38 and the error value of maximum humidity rates at 0.04. Afterall, the forecasting error rate of wind speed is at 0.076. The lower the forecasting error rate, the more optimized the accuracy is.

  8. Cold fusion, Alchemist's dream

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clayton, E.D.


    In this report the following topics relating to cold fusion are discussed: muon catalysed cold fusion; piezonuclear fusion; sundry explanations pertaining to cold fusion; cosmic ray muon catalysed cold fusion; vibrational mechanisms in excited states of D 2 molecules; barrier penetration probabilities within the hydrogenated metal lattice/piezonuclear fusion; branching ratios of D 2 fusion at low energies; fusion of deuterons into 4 He; secondary D+T fusion within the hydrogenated metal lattice; 3 He to 4 He ratio within the metal lattice; shock induced fusion; and anomalously high isotopic ratios of 3 He/ 4 He

  9. Operational early warning platform for extreme meteorological events (United States)

    Mühr, Bernhard; Kunz, Michael


    Operational early warning platform for extreme meteorological events Most natural disasters are related to extreme weather events (e.g. typhoons); weather conditions, however, are also highly relevant for humanitarian and disaster relief operations during and after other natural disaster like earthquakes. The internet service "Wettergefahren-Frühwarnung" (WF) provides various information on extreme weather events, especially when these events are associated with a high potential for large damage. The main focus of the platform is on Central Europe, but major events are also monitored worldwide on a daily routine. WF provides high-resolution forecast maps for many weather parameters which allow detailed and reliable predictions about weather conditions during the next days in the affected areas. The WF service became operational in February 2004 and is part of the Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM) since 2007. At the end of 2011, CEDIM embarked a new type of interdisciplinary disaster research termed as forensic disaster analysis (FDA) in near real time. In case of an imminent extreme weather event WF plays an important role in CEDIM's FDA group. It provides early and precise information which are always available and updated several times during a day and gives advice and assists with articles and reports on extreme events.

  10. Cold Antimatter Plasmas, and Aspirations for Cold Antihydrogen (United States)


    UNCLASSIFIED Defense Technical Information Center Compilation Part Notice ADP012494 TITLE: Cold Antimatter Plasmas, and Aspirations for Cold...part numbers comprise the compilation report: ADP012489 thru ADP012577 UNCLASSIFIED Cold Antimatter Plasmas, and Aspirations for Cold Antihydrogen G...and positrons. The antiprotons come initially from the new Antiproton Decel- erator facility at CERN. Good control of such cold antimatter plasmas is

  11. Severe Weather Data Inventory (SWDI) (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Severe Weather Data Inventory (SWDI) is an integrated database of severe weather records for the United States. SWDI enables a user to search through a variety...

  12. North America Synoptic Weather Maps (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Series of Synoptic Weather Maps. Maps contains a surface analysis comprised of plotted weather station observations, isobars indicating low and high-pressure...

  13. Geography and Weather: Mountain Meterology. (United States)

    Mogil, H. Michael; Collins, H. Thomas


    Provided are 26 ideas to help children explore the effects of mountains on the weather. Weather conditions in Nepal and Colorado are considered separately. Nine additional sources of information are listed. (CW)

  14. Changes in Indices of Daily Temperature and Precipitation Extremes ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    It's a known fact that climate change will bring about increases in the occurrence of weather extreme events such as elevated temperature, drought, and floods; most especially in areas classified as hotspots to climate change – such as northwest Nigeria. This study investigates trends in extreme temperature and ...

  15. Research frontiers in climate change: Effects of extreme meteorological events on ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jentsch, A.; Jentsch, A.; Beierkuhnlein, C.


    Climate change will increase the recurrence of extreme weather events such as drought and heavy rainfall. Evidence suggests that modifications in extreme weather events pose stronger threats to ecosystem functioning than global trends and shifts in average conditions. As ecosystem functioning is connected with ecological services, this has far-reaching effects on societies in the 21. century. Here, we: (i) present the rationale for the increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events in the near future; (ii) discuss recent findings on meteorological extremes and summarize their effects on ecosystems and (iii) identify gaps in current ecological climate change research. (authors)

  16. Cold Climate Structural Fire Danger Rating System?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria-Monika Metallinou


    Full Text Available Worldwide, fires kill 300,000 people every year. The fire season is usually recognized to be in the warmer periods of the year. Recent research has, however, demonstrated that the colder season also has major challenges regarding severe fires, especially in inhabited (heated wood-based structures in cold-climate areas. Knowledge about the effect of dry cellulose-based materials on fire development, indoor and outdoor, is a motivation for monitoring possible changes in potential fire behavior and associated fire risk. The effect of wind in spreading fires to neighboring structures points towards using weather forecasts as information on potential fire spread behavior. As modern weather forecasts include temperature and relative humidity predictions, there may already be sufficient information available to develop a structural fire danger rating system. Such a system may include the following steps: (1 Record weather forecasts and actual temperature and relative humidity inside and outside selected structures; (2 Develop a meteorology-data-based model to predict indoor relative humidity levels; (3 Perform controlled drying chamber experiments involving typical hygroscopic fire fuel; (4 Compare the results to the recorded values in selected structures; and (5 Develop the risk model involving the results from drying chamber experiments, weather forecasts, and separation between structures. Knowledge about the structures at risk and their use is also important. The benefits of an automated fire danger rating system would be that the society can better plan for potentially severe cold-climate fires and thereby limit the negative impacts of such fires.

  17. Impact of weather variability on nitrate leaching (United States)

    Richards, Karl; Premrov, Alina; Hackett, Richard; Coxon, Catherine


    The loss of nitrate (NO3 - N) to water via leaching and overland flow contributes to eutrophication of freshwaters, transitional and near coastal waters with agriculture contributing significantly to nitrogen (N) loading to these water. Environmental regulations, such as the Nitrates and Water Framework Directives, have increased constraints on farmers to improve N management in regions at risk of NO3--N loss to water. In addition, farmers also have to manage their systems within a changing climate as the imapcts of climate change begin to impact resulting in more frequent extreme events such as floods and droughts. The objective of this study was to investigate the link between weather volatility and the concentration of leached NO3--N spring barley. Leaching was quantified under spring barley grown on a well-drained, gravelly sandy soil using ceramic cup samplers over 6 drainage years under the same farming practices and treatments. Soil solution NO3--N concentrations under spring barley grown by conventional inversion ploughing and reduced tillage were compared to weather parameters over the period. Weather was recorded at a national Met Eireann weather station on site. Soil solution NO3--N varied significantly between years. Within individual years NO3--N concentrations varied over the drainage season, with peak concentrations generally observed in the autumn time, decreasing thereafter. Under both treatments there was a three-fold difference in mean annual soil solution NO3--N concentration over the 6 years with no change in the agronomic practices (crop type, tillage type and fertiliser input). Soil solution nitrate concentrations were significantly influenced by weather parameters such as rainfall, effective drainage and soil moisture deficit. The impact of climate change in Ireland could lead to increased NO3--N loss to water further exacerbating eutrophication of sensitive estuaries. The increased impact on eutrophication of waters, related to climatic

  18. Body temperature and cold sensation during and following exercise under temperate room conditions in cold-sensitive young trained females. (United States)

    Fujii, Naoto; Aoki-Murakami, Erii; Tsuji, Bun; Kenny, Glen P; Nagashima, Kei; Kondo, Narihiko; Nishiyasu, Takeshi


    We evaluated cold sensation at rest and in response to exercise-induced changes in core and skin temperatures in cold-sensitive exercise trained females. Fifty-eight trained young females were screened by a questionnaire, selecting cold-sensitive (Cold-sensitive, n  = 7) and non-cold-sensitive (Control, n  = 7) individuals. Participants rested in a room at 29.5°C for ~100 min after which ambient temperature was reduced to 23.5°C where they remained resting for 60 min. Participants then performed 30-min of moderate intensity cycling (50% peak oxygen uptake) followed by a 60-min recovery. Core and mean skin temperatures and cold sensation over the whole-body and extremities (fingers and toes) were assessed throughout. Resting core temperature was lower in the Cold-sensitive relative to Control group (36.4 ± 0.3 vs. 36.7 ± 0.2°C). Core temperature increased to similar levels at end-exercise (~37.2°C) and gradually returned to near preexercise rest levels at the end of recovery (>36.6°C). Whole-body cold sensation was greater in the Cold-sensitive relative to Control group during resting at a room temperature of 23.5°C only without a difference in mean skin temperature between groups. In contrast, cold sensation of the extremities was greater in the Cold-sensitive group prior to, during and following exercise albeit this was not paralleled by differences in mean extremity skin temperature. We show that young trained females who are sensitive to cold exhibit augmented whole-body cold sensation during rest under temperate ambient conditions. However, this response is diminished during and following exercise. In contrast, cold sensation of extremities is augmented during resting that persists during and following exercise. © 2017 The Authors. Physiological Reports published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The Physiological Society and the American Physiological Society.

  19. Cooperative Weather Observations (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly logs include a daily account of temperature extremes and precipitation, along with snow data at some locations. U.S. Cooperative Observer Program (COOP)...

  20. Working in the Cold

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts


    During the winter, many workers are outdoors, working in cold, wet, icy, or snowy conditions. Learn how to identify symptoms that tell you there may be a problem and protect yourself from cold stress.  Created: 2/8/2016 by National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH).   Date Released: 2/8/2016.

  1. Cold fusion research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    I am pleased to forward to you the Final Report of the Cold Fusion Panel. This report reviews the current status of cold fusion and includes major chapters on Calorimetry and Excess Heat, Fusion Products and Materials Characterization. In addition, the report makes a number of conclusions and recommendations, as requested by the Secretary of Energy


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. M. Strizhak


    Full Text Available The different types of cold-worked accessory are examined in the article. The necessity of development of such type of accessory in the Republic of Belarus due to requirements of market is shown. High emphasis is placed on the methods of increase of plasticity of cold-worked accessory from usual mill of RUP and CIS countries.

  3. Liquid metal cold trap

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hundal, R.


    A cold trap assembly for removing impurities from a liquid metal is described. A hole between the incoming impure liquid metal and purified outgoing liquid metal acts as a continuous bleed means and thus prevents the accumulation of cover gases within the cold trap assembly

  4. Central American Flying Weather (United States)


    CEILING; VISIBILITY; WIND, PRECIPITATIDNc’--." HAZE, SMOKE, TEMPORALE ; MOUNTAIN WAVE; MILITARY METEOROLOGY. 4k- / ’A. bstract; Asummary of~ing weather...1 The " Temporale " ....................................1 Mountain Waves ......................I...............1 Severe Thunderstorms...charts. The for any part of Central America lies in having: Tactical Pilota.e Chart series , produced by the Df -.nse Mapping Agency, is * A good, basic

  5. Weather based risks and insurances for crop production in Belgium (United States)

    Gobin, Anne


    Extreme weather events such as late frosts, droughts, heat waves and rain storms can have devastating effects on cropping systems. Damages due to extreme events are strongly dependent on crop type, crop stage, soil type and soil conditions. The perspective of rising risk-exposure is exacerbated further by limited aid received for agricultural damage, an overall reduction of direct income support to farmers and projected intensification of weather extremes with climate change. According to both the agriculture and finance sectors, a risk assessment of extreme weather events and their impact on cropping systems is needed. The impact of extreme weather events particularly during the sensitive periods of the farming calendar requires a modelling approach to capture the mixture of non-linear interactions between the crop, its environment and the occurrence of the meteorological event. The risk of soil moisture deficit increases towards harvesting, such that drought stress occurs in spring and summer. Conversely, waterlogging occurs mostly during early spring and autumn. Risks of temperature stress appear during winter and spring for chilling and during summer for heat. Since crop development is driven by thermal time and photoperiod, the regional crop model REGCROP (Gobin, 2010) enabled to examine the likely frequency, magnitude and impacts of frost, drought, heat stress and waterlogging in relation to the cropping season and crop sensitive stages. The risk profiles were subsequently confronted with yields, yield losses and insurance claims for different crops. Physically based crop models such as REGCROP assist in understanding the links between different factors causing crop damage as demonstrated for cropping systems in Belgium. Extreme weather events have already precipitated contraction of insurance coverage in some markets (e.g. hail insurance), and the process can be expected to continue if the losses or damages from such events increase in the future. Climate

  6. CrowdSourced weather reports: An implementation of the µ model for spotting weather information in Twitter

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Butgereit, L


    Full Text Available Twitter is a microblogging facility that allows people to post 140 character status updates about various topics. In times of special events (such as extreme weather, emergencies, sporting goals, etc), status updates on Twitter often give people a...

  7. Weatherization Beyond the Numbers: Case Studies of Fifteen High-performing Weatherization Agencies - Conducted May 2011 through July 2012

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tonn, Bruce Edward [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Rose, Erin M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Hawkins, Beth A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)


    The report presents fifteen individual case studies of high-performing and unique local weatherization agencies. This research was one component of the retrospective evaluation of the U.S. Department of Energy s Weatherization Assistance Program. The agencies were chosen to represent a range of contexts and approaches to weatherization. For example, the set of agencies includes a mix of urban and rural agencies, those that mainly use in-house crews to weatherize homes versus those that use contractor crews, and a mix of locations, from very cold climates to moderate to hot humid and dry climates. The case studies were mainly based on site visits to the agencies that encompassed interviews with program directors, weatherization crews, and recipients of weatherization. This information was supplemented by secondary materials. The cases document the diversity of contexts and challenges faced by the agencies and how they operate on a day-by-day basis. The cases also high common themes found throughout the agencies, such as their focus on mission and respect for their clients.

  8. Acidic weathering of carbonate building stones: experimental assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryszard Kryza


    Full Text Available Three types of carbonate rocks, travertine, limestone and marble have been studied to determine their selected technical parameters (water absorption, resistance to salt crystallization damage and reaction to experimentally modelled acid rain weathering imitating the polluted urban atmospheric conditions. The acidic agents present in natural acid rain precipitation, H2SO4, HCl, HNO3, CH3COOH and mixture of all the acids, “Acid mix”, were tested. The initial stages of acid weathering involve, apart from chemical dissolution, particularly intense physical detachment of rock particles (granular disintegration significantly contributing to the total mass loss. Travertine was found to be most prone to salt crystallization damage and to acid weathering, and these features should be taken into account especially in external architectural usage of this stone in cold climate conditions and polluted urban atmosphere.

  9. Evaluation Of Potting Materials For Use In Extreme Cold (United States)

    Acosta, Ernesto


    Tests help identify noncracking combinations of materials. Aid evaluation of potting materials for copper coils used at low temperatures to measure magnetic fields. Also determine effects of distribution of microballoons, voids, and porosity. Materials also evaluated for ease of use.

  10. NWS Weather Fatality, Injury and Damage Statistics (United States)

    ... Weather Awareness Floods, Wind Chill, Tornadoes, Heat... Education Weather Terms, Teachers, Statistics government web resources and services. Natural Hazard Statistics Statistics U.S. Summaries 78-Year List of Severe Weather Fatalities Preliminary Hazardous Weather Statistics for 2017 Now

  11. Can the Weather Affect My Child's Asthma? (United States)

    ... English Español Can the Weather Affect My Child's Asthma? KidsHealth / For Parents / Can the Weather Affect My ... Asthma? Print Can the Weather Affect My Child's Asthma? Yes. Weather conditions can bring on asthma symptoms. ...

  12. Weather based risks and insurances for agricultural production (United States)

    Gobin, Anne


    Extreme weather events such as frost, drought, heat waves and rain storms can have devastating effects on cropping systems. According to both the agriculture and finance sectors, a risk assessment of extreme weather events and their impact on cropping systems is needed. The principle of return periods or frequencies of natural hazards is adopted in many countries as the basis of eligibility for the compensation of associated losses. For adequate risk management and eligibility, hazard maps for events with a 20-year return period are often used. Damages due to extreme events are strongly dependent on crop type, crop stage, soil type and soil conditions. The impact of extreme weather events particularly during the sensitive periods of the farming calendar therefore requires a modelling approach to capture the mixture of non-linear interactions between the crop, its environment and the occurrence of the meteorological event in the farming calendar. Physically based crop models such as REGCROP (Gobin, 2010) assist in understanding the links between different factors causing crop damage. Subsequent examination of the frequency, magnitude and impacts of frost, drought, heat stress and soil moisture stress in relation to the cropping season and crop sensitive stages allows for risk profiles to be confronted with yields, yield losses and insurance claims. The methodology is demonstrated for arable food crops, bio-energy crops and fruit. The perspective of rising risk-exposure is exacerbated further by limited aid received for agricultural damage, an overall reduction of direct income support to farmers and projected intensification of weather extremes with climate change. Though average yields have risen continuously due to technological advances, there is no evidence that relative tolerance to adverse weather events has improved. The research is funded by the Belgian Science Policy Organisation (Belspo) under contract nr SD/RI/03A.

  13. Human whole body cold adaptation.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Daanen, Hein A.M.; Van Marken Lichtenbelt, Wouter D.


    Reviews on whole body human cold adaptation generally do not distinguish between population studies and dedicated acclimation studies, leading to confusing results. Population studies show that indigenous black Africans have reduced shivering thermogenesis in the cold and poor cold induced

  14. Space Weather Services of Korea (United States)

    Yoon, K.; Hong, S.; Jangsuk, C.; Dong Kyu, K.; Jinyee, C.; Yeongoh, C.


    The Korean Space Weather Center (KSWC) of the National Radio Research Agency (RRA) is a government agency which is the official source of space weather information for Korean Government and the primary action agency of emergency measure to severe space weather condition. KSWC's main role is providing alerts, watches, and forecasts in order to minimize the space weather impacts on both of public and commercial sectors of satellites, aviation, communications, navigations, power grids, and etc. KSWC is also in charge of monitoring the space weather condition and conducting research and development for its main role of space weather operation in Korea. In this study, we will present KSWC's recent efforts on development of application-oriented space weather research products and services on user needs, and introduce new international collaborative projects, such as IPS-Driven Enlil model, DREAM model estimating electron in satellite orbit, global network of DSCOVR and STEREO satellites tracking, and ARMAS (Automated Radiation Measurement for Aviation Safety).

  15. The Characteristics of Cold Air Outbreaks in the Eastern United States and the Influence of Atmospheric Circulation Patterns (United States)

    Smith, E. T.


    Periods of extreme cold impact the mid-latitudes every winter. Depending on the magnitude and duration of the occurrence, extremely cold periods may be deemed cold air outbreaks (CAOs). Atmospheric teleconnections impact the displacement of polar air, but the relationship between the primary teleconnections and the manifestation of CAOs is not fully understood. A systematic CAO index was developed from 20 surface weather stations based on a set of criteria concerning magnitude, duration, and spatial extent. Statistical analyses of the data were used to determine the overall trends in CAOs. Clusters of sea level pressure (SLP), 100mb, and 10mb geopotential height anomalies were mapped utilizing self-organizing maps (SOMs) to understand the surface, upper-tropospheric Polar Vortex (PV), and stratospheric PV patterns preceding CAOs. The Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Pacific-North American (PNA) teleconnections were used as variables to explain the magnitude and location of mid-latitude Arctic air displacement. Persistently negative SLP anomalies across the Arctic and North Atlantic were evident 1 - 2 weeks prior to the CAOs throughout the winter. The upper-tropospheric and stratospheric PV were found to be persistently weak/weakening prior to mid-winter CAOs and predominantly strong and off-centered prior to early and late season CAOs. Negative phases of the AO and NAO were favored prior to CAOs, while the PNA favored a near-neutral phase. This method of CAO and synoptic pattern characterization benefits from a continuous pattern representation and provides insight as to how specific teleconnections impact the atmospheric flow in a way that leads to CAOs in the eastern U.S.

  16. How Satellites Have Contributed to Building a Weather Ready Nation (United States)

    Lapenta, W.


    NOAA's primary mission since its inception has been to reduce the loss of life and property, as well as disruptions from, high impact weather and water-related events. In recent years, significant societal losses resulting even from well forecast extreme events have shifted attention from the forecast alone toward ensuring societal response is equal to the risks that exist for communities, businesses and the public. The responses relate to decisions ranging from coastal communities planning years in advance to mitigate impacts from rising sea level, to immediate lifesaving decisions such as a family seeking adequate shelter during a tornado warning. NOAA is committed to building a "Weather-Ready Nation" where communities are prepared for and respond appropriately to these events. The Weather-Ready Nation (WRN) strategic priority is building community resilience in the face of increasing vulnerability to extreme weather, water, climate and environmental threats. To build a Weather-Ready Nation, NOAA is enhancing Impact-Based Decision Support Services (IDSS), transitioning science and technology advances into forecast operations, applying social science research to improve the communication and usefulness of information, and expanding its dissemination efforts to achieve far-reaching readiness, responsiveness and resilience. These four components of Weather-Ready Nation are helping ensure NOAA data, products and services are fully utilized to minimize societal impacts from extreme events. Satellite data and satellite products have been important elements of the national Weather Service (NWS) operations for more than 40 years. When one examines the uses of satellite data specific to the internal forecast and warning operations of NWS, two main applications are evident. The first is the use of satellite data in numerical weather prediction models; the second is the use of satellite imagery and derived products for mesoscale and short-range weather warning and


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. D. Oleynikov


    Full Text Available Currently, due to the global climate change and increasing frequency of weather events focus is on prediction of climate extremes. Large-scale meteorological anomalies can cause long-term paralysis of social and economic infrastructure of the major mountain regions and even individual states. In winter periods, these anomalies are associated with prolonged heavy snowfalls and associated with them catastrophic avalanches which cause significant social and economic damage. The climate system maintains a certain momentum during periods of adjustment and transition to other conditions in the ratio of heat and moisture and contains a climate «signal» of the climates of the past and the future. In our view seasonal and yearly extremes perform the role of these indicators, study of which enables for a deeper understanding and appreciation of the real situation of the climate periods related to the modern ones. The paper provides an overview of the criteria for selection of extreme winters. Identification of extremely cold winters during the period of instrumental observation and assessment of their snowiness and avalanche activity done for the Elbrus region, which is a model site for study of the avalanche regime in the Central Caucasus. The studies aim to identify the extreme winters in the Greater Caucasus, assess their frequency of occurrence, characterize the scale and intensity of the avalanche formation. The data obtained can be used to identify winter-analogues in the reconstruction and long-term forecast of avalanches. 

  18. How Cities Make Their Own Weather (United States)

    Shepherd, J. Marshall


    Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Most of world's population has moved to urban areas. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is considered urban, the spatial coverage and density of cities are expected to rapidly increase in d e near future. It is estimated that by the year 2025, 60% of the world's population will live in cities. Human activity in urban environments also alters weather and climate processes. However, our understanding of urbanization on the total Earth-weather-climate system is incomplete. Recent literature continues to provide evidence that anomalies in precipitation exist over and downwind of major cities. Current and future research efforts are actively seeking to verify these literature findings and understand potential cause-effect relationships. The novelty of this study is that it utilizes rainfall data from multiple satellite data sources (e.g. TRMM precipitation radar, TRMM-geosynchronous-rain gauge merged product, and SSM/I) and ground-based measurements to identify spatial anomalies and temporal trends in precipitation for cities around the world. We will also present results from experiments using a regional atmospheric-land surface modeling system. Early results will be presented and placed within the context of weather prediction, climate assessment, and societal applications.

  19. Spring weather conditions influence breeding phenology and reproductive success in sympatric bat populations. (United States)

    Linton, Danielle M; Macdonald, David W


    Climate is known to influence breeding phenology and reproductive success in temperate-zone bats, but long-term population level studies and interspecific comparisons are rare. Investigating the extent to which intrinsic (i.e. age), and extrinsic (i.e. spring weather conditions), factors influence such key demographic parameters as the proportion of females becoming pregnant, or completing lactation, each breeding season, is vital to understanding of bat population ecology and life-history traits. Using data from 12 breeding seasons (2006-2017), encompassing the reproductive histories of 623 Myotis daubentonii and 436 Myotis nattereri adult females, we compare rates of recruitment to the breeding population and show that these species differ in their relative sensitivity to environmental conditions and climatic variation, affecting annual reproductive success at the population level. We demonstrate that (1) spring weather conditions influence breeding phenology, with warm, dry and calm conditions leading to earlier parturition dates and advanced juvenile development, whilst cold, wet and windy weather delays birth timing and juvenile growth; (2) reproductive rates in first-year females are influenced by spring weather conditions in that breeding season and in the preceding breeding season when each cohort was born. Pregnancy and lactation rates were both higher when favourable spring foraging conditions were more prevalent; (3) reproductive success increases with age in both species, but at different rates; (4) reproductive rates were consistently higher, and showed less interannual variation, in second-year and older M. daubentonii (mean 91.55% ± 0.05 SD) than M. nattereri (mean 72.74% ± 0.15 SD); (5) estimates of reproductive success at the population level were highly correlated with the size of the juvenile cohort recorded each breeding season. Improving understanding of the influence of environmental conditions, especially extreme climatic

  20. The Weather in Richmond


    Harless, William Edwin


    ABSTRACT: The Weather in Richmond is a short documentary about the Oilers, the football team at Richmond High School in downtown Richmond, California, as they struggle in 2012 with the legacy of winning no games, with the exception of a forfeit, in two years. The video documents the city of Richmond’s poverty and violence, but it also is an account of the city’s cultural diversity, of the city’s industrial history and of the hopes of some of the people who grow up there. The...

  1. Combating bad weather

    CERN Document Server

    Mukhopadhyay, Sudipta


    Every year lives and properties are lost in road accidents. About one-fourth of these accidents are due to low vision in foggy weather. At present, there is no algorithm that is specifically designed for the removal of fog from videos. Application of a single-image fog removal algorithm over each video frame is a time-consuming and costly affair. It is demonstrated that with the intelligent use of temporal redundancy, fog removal algorithms designed for a single image can be extended to the real-time video application. Results confirm that the presented framework used for the extension of the

  2. Weather Balloon Ascent Rate (United States)

    Denny, Mark


    The physics of a weather balloon is analyzed. The surprising aspect of the motion of these balloons is that they ascend to great altitudes (typically 35 km) at a more or less constant rate. Such behavior is not surprising near the ground—say for a helium-filled party balloon rising from street level to the top of the Empire State building—but it is unexpected for a balloon that rises to altitudes where the air is rarefied. We show from elementary physical laws why the ascent rate is approximately constant.

  3. The State of the Art in Cold Forging Lubrication

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bay, Niels


    The manufature of components in steel, aluminium and copper alloys by cold forging production has increased ever since the 1950's. Typical processes are forward rod extrusion and backward can extrusion, upsetting, ironing, tube extrusion and radial extrusion. The tribological conditions in cold...... forging are extremely severe due to large surface expansion and normal pressure in the tool/workpiece interface combined with elevated tool temperatures. Except for the more simple cold forging operations successful production therefore requires advanced lubrication systems. The present paper gives...... a detailed description of the state of art for lubricant systems for cold forging of C-steels and low alloy steels as well as aluminium alloys including all the basic operations such as cleaning of the slugs, application of eventual conversion coating and lubrication. As regards cold forging of steel...

  4. Human nutrition in cold and high terrestrial altitudes (United States)

    Srivastava, K. K.; Kumar, Ratan


    The calorie and nutritional requirements for a man working in an alien hostile environment of cold regions and high altitude are described and compared to those of normal requirements. Carbohydrates, fats and vitamins fulfilling the caloric and nutritional requirements are generally available in adequate amounts except under conditions of appetite loss. However, the proteins and amino acids should be provided in such a way as to meet the altered behavioral and metabolic requirements. Work in extreme cold requires fulfilling enhanced calorie needs. In high mountainous regions, cold combined with hypoxia produced loss of appetite and necessitated designing of special foods.

  5. Chilling Out With Colds (United States)

    ... and use the time to read, listen to music, or watch a movie. In other words, chill out and you might prevent a cold! Reviewed by: Patricia ... Policy Permissions Guidelines Privacy Policy & Terms of Use Notice ...

  6. Cold Vacuum Drying Facility (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — Located near the K-Basins (see K-Basins link) in Hanford's 100 Area is a facility called the Cold Vacuum Drying Facility (CVDF).Between 2000 and 2004, workers at the...

  7. NASA Space Weather Center Services: Potential for Space Weather Research (United States)

    Zheng, Yihua; Kuznetsova, Masha; Pulkkinen, Antti; Taktakishvili, A.; Mays, M. L.; Chulaki, A.; Lee, H.; Hesse, M.


    The NASA Space Weather Center's primary objective is to provide the latest space weather information and forecasting for NASA's robotic missions and its partners and to bring space weather knowledge to the public. At the same time, the tools and services it possesses can be invaluable for research purposes. Here we show how our archive and real-time modeling of space weather events can aid research in a variety of ways, with different classification criteria. We will list and discuss major CME events, major geomagnetic storms, and major SEP events that occurred during the years 2010 - 2012. Highlights of major tools/resources will be provided.

  8. A framework for standardized calculation of weather indices in Germany (United States)

    Möller, Markus; Doms, Juliane; Gerstmann, Henning; Feike, Til


    Climate change has been recognized as a main driver in the increasing occurrence of extreme weather. Weather indices (WIs) are used to assess extreme weather conditions regarding its impact on crop yields. Designing WIs is challenging, since complex and dynamic crop-climate relationships have to be considered. As a consequence, geodata for WI calculations have to represent both the spatio-temporal dynamic of crop development and corresponding weather conditions. In this study, we introduce a WI design framework for Germany, which is based on public and open raster data of long-term spatio-temporal availability. The operational process chain enables the dynamic and automatic definition of relevant phenological phases for the main cultivated crops in Germany. Within the temporal bounds, WIs can be calculated for any year and test site in Germany in a reproducible and transparent manner. The workflow is demonstrated on the example of a simple cumulative rainfall index for the phenological phase shooting of winter wheat using 16 test sites and the period between 1994 and 2014. Compared to station-based approaches, the major advantage of our approach is the possibility to design spatial WIs based on raster data characterized by accuracy metrics. Raster data and WIs, which fulfill data quality standards, can contribute to an increased acceptance and farmers' trust in WI products for crop yield modeling or weather index-based insurances (WIIs).

  9. Dence Cold Matter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stavinskiy Alexey


    Full Text Available Possible way to create dense cold baryonic matter in the laboratory is discussed. The density of this matter is comparable or even larger than the density of neutron star core. The properties of this matter can be controlled by trigger conditions. Experimental program for the study of properties of dense cold matter for light and heavy ion collisions at initial energy range √sNN~2-3GeV is proposed..

  10. Vodcasting Space Weather (United States)

    Collins Petersen, Carolyn; Erickson, P. J.; Needles, M.


    The topic of space weather is the subject of a series of vodcasts (video podcasts) produced by MIT Haystack Observatory (Westford, MA) and Loch Ness Productions (Groton, MA). This paper discusses the production and distribution of the series via Webcast, Youtube, and other avenues. It also presents preliminary evaluation of the effectiveness and outreach of the project through feedback from both formal and information education venues. The vodcast series is linked to the NASA Living With a Star Targeted Research and Technology project award "Multi-Instrument Investigation of Inner-Magnetospheric/Ionosphere Disturbances.” It is being carried out by Principal Investigator Dr. John Foster, under the auspices of NASA Grant # NNX06AB86G. The research involves using ionospheric total electron content (TEC) observations to study the location, extent, and duration of perturbations within stormtime ionospheric electric fields at mid- to low latitudes. It combines ground-based global positioning system (GPS) TEC data, incoherent scatter radar measurements of the mid-latitude ionospheric state, and DMSP satellite observations to characterize conditions which lead to severe low-latitude ionospheric perturbations. Each vodcast episode covers a certain aspect of space weather and the research program.

  11. Weatherization Apprenticeship Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watson, Eric J


    Weatherization improvement services will be provided to Native people by Native people. The proposed project will recruit, train and hire two full-time weatherization technicians who will improve the energy efficiency of homes of Alaska Natives/American Indians residing in the Indian areas, within the Cook Inlet Region of Alaska. The Region includes Anchorage as well as 8 small tribal villages: The Native Villages of Eklutna, Knik, Chickaloon, Seldovia, Ninilchik, Kenaitze, Salamatof, and Tyonek. This project will be a partnership between three entities, with Cook Inlet Tribal Council (CITC) as the lead agency: CITCA's Employment and Training Services Department, Cook Inlet Housing Authority and Alaska Works Partnership. Additionally, six of the eight tribal villages within the Cook Inlet Region of Alaska have agreed to work with the project in order to improve the energy efficiency of their tribally owned buildings and homes. The remaining three villages will be invited to participate in the establishment of an intertribal consortium through this project. Tribal homes and buildings within Anchorage fall under Cook Inlet Region, Inc. (CIRI) tribal authority.

  12. Solar weather monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-F. Hochedez


    Full Text Available Space Weather nowcasting and forecasting require solar observations because geoeffective disturbances can arise from three types of solar phenomena: coronal mass ejections (CMEs, flares and coronal holes. For each, we discuss their definition and review their precursors in terms of remote sensing and in-situ observations. The objectives of Space Weather require some specific instrumental features, which we list using the experience gained from the daily operations of the Solar Influences Data analysis Centre (SIDC at the Royal Observatory of Belgium. Nowcasting requires real-time monitoring to assess quickly and reliably the severity of any potentially geoeffective solar event. Both research and forecasting could incorporate more observations in order to feed case studies and data assimilation respectively. Numerical models will result in better predictions of geomagnetic storms and solar energetic particle (SEP events. We review the data types available to monitor solar activity and interplanetary conditions. They come from space missions and ground observatories and range from sequences of dopplergrams, magnetograms, white-light, chromospheric, coronal, coronagraphic and radio images, to irradiance and in-situ time-series. Their role is summarized together with indications about current and future solar monitoring instruments.

  13. Weathering of rock 'Ginger' (United States)


    One of the more unusual rocks at the site is Ginger, located southeast of the lander. Parts of it have the reddest color of any material in view, whereas its rounded lobes are gray and relatively unweathered. These color differences are brought out in the inset, enhanced at the upper right. In the false color image at the lower right, the shape of the visible-wavelength spectrum (related to the abundance of weathered ferric iron minerals) is indicated by the hue of the rocks. Blue indicates relatively unweathered rocks. Typical soils and drift, which are heavily weathered, are shown in green and flesh tones. The very red color in the creases in the rock surface correspond to a crust of ferric minerals. The origin of the rock is uncertain; the ferric crust may have grown underneath the rock, or it may cement pebbles together into a conglomerate. Ginger will be a target of future super-resolution studies to better constrain its origin.Mars Pathfinder is the second in NASA's Discovery program of low-cost spacecraft with highly focused science goals. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, developed and manages the Mars Pathfinder mission for NASA's Office of Space Science, Washington, D.C. The Imager for Mars Pathfinder (IMP) was developed by the University of Arizona Lunar and Planetary Laboratory under contract to JPL. Peter Smith is the Principal Investigator. JPL is an operating division of the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).

  14. Hypothermic general cold adaptation induced by local cold acclimation. (United States)

    Savourey, G; Barnavol, B; Caravel, J P; Feuerstein, C; Bittel, J H


    To study relationships between local cold adaptation of the lower limbs and general cold adaptation, eight subjects were submitted both to a cold foot test (CFT, 5 degrees C water immersion, 5 min) and to a whole-body standard cold air test (SCAT, 1 degree C, 2 h, nude at rest) before and after a local cold acclimation (LCA) of the lower limbs effected by repeated cold water immersions. The LCA induced a local cold adaptation confirmed by higher skin temperatures of the lower limbs during CFT and a hypothermic insulative general cold adaptation (decreased rectal temperature and mean skin temperature P adaptation was related to the habituation process confirmed by decreased plasma concentrations of noradrenaline (NA) during LCA (P general cold adaptation was unrelated either to local cold adaptation or to the habituation process, because an increased NA during SCAT after LCA (P syndrome" occurring during LCA.

  15. Space Weather- Physics and Effects

    CERN Document Server

    Bothmer, Volker


    This book is a state-of-the-art review on the physics of space weather and on space weather impacts on human technology, including manned spaceflight. With contributions from a team of international experts, this comprehensive work covers all aspects of space weather physical processes, and all known aspects of space hazards from humans, both in space and on Earth. Space Weather - Physics and Effects provides the first comprehensive, scientific background of space storms caused by the sun and its impact on geospace focuses on weather issues that have become vital for the development of nationwide technological infrastructures explains magnetic storms on Earth, including the effects of EUV radiation on the atmosphere is an invaluable aid in establishing real-time weather forecasts details the threat that solar effects might have on modern telecommunication systems, including national power grid systems, aircraft and manned spaceflight.

  16. Artificial changes of weather conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kozin, I.D.; Vasil'ev, I.V.; Fedulina, I.N.; Zakizhan, Z.Z.; Khalimov, R.A.


    Unfavorable weather conditions have undesirable ecological consequences, causes remarkable economical damage. In the paper authors consider physical factors and technical methods of influence on cloud formation. (author)

  17. Cold moderators at ORNL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lucas, A. T.


    The Advanced Neutron Source (ANS) cold moderators were not an 'Oak Ridge first', but would have been the largest both physically and in terms of cold neutron flux. Two cold moderators were planned each 410 mm in diameter and containing about 30L of liquid deuterium. They were to be completely independent of each other. A modular system design was used to provide greater reliability and serviceability. When the ANS was terminated, upgrading of the resident High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) was examined and an initial study was made into the feasibility of adding a cold source. Because the ANS design was modular, it was possible to use many identical design features. Sub-cooled liquid at 4 bar abs was initially chosen for the HFIR design concept, but this was subsequently changed to 15 bar abs to operate above the critical pressure. As in the ANS, the hydrogen will operate at a constant pressure throughout the temperature range and a completely closed loop with secondary containment was adopted. The heat load of 2 kW made the heat flux comparable with that of the ANS. Subsequent studies into the construction of cryogenic moderators for the proposed new Synchrotron Neutron source indicated that again many of the same design concepts could be used. By connecting the two cold sources together in series, the total heat load of 2 kW is very close to that of the HFIR allowing a very similar supercritical hydrogen system to be configured. The two hydrogen moderators of the SNS provide a comparable heat load to the HFIR moderator. It is subsequently planned to connect the two in series and operate from a single cold loop system, once again using supercritical hydrogen. The spallation source also provided an opportunity to re-examine a cold pellet solid methane moderator operating at 20K.

  18. Extremely Preterm Birth (United States)

    ... Events Advocacy For Patients About ACOG Extremely Preterm Birth Home For Patients Search FAQs Extremely Preterm Birth ... Spanish FAQ173, June 2016 PDF Format Extremely Preterm Birth Pregnancy When is a baby considered “preterm” or “ ...

  19. Synoptic weather types associated with critical fire weather (United States)

    Mark J. Schroeder; Monte Glovinsky; Virgil F. Hendricks; Frank C. Hood; Melvin K. Hull; Henry L. Jacobson; Robert Kirkpatrick; Daniel W. Krueger; Lester P. Mallory; Albert G. Oeztel; Robert H. Reese; Leo A. Sergius; Charles E. Syverson


    Recognizing that weather is an important factor in the spread of both urban and wildland fires, a study was made of the synoptic weather patterns and types which produce strong winds, low relative humidities, high temperatures, and lack of rainfall--the conditions conducive to rapid fire spread. Such historic fires as the San Francisco fire of 1906, the Berkeley fire...

  20. Weathering process in Sør Rondane Mountains, East Antarctica (United States)

    Kanamaru, T.; Suganuma, Y.; Oiwane, H.; Miura, M.; Okuno, J.; Hayakawa, H.


    Weathering process under the hyper-arid and hypothermal environment is a key to understand the geomorphogic process and landscape evolution in Antarctica and on Mars. A nunber of studies have focused on weathering process of basaltic rocks in Antarctica, however, the nature of the weathering process of plutonic type rock, a common rock type on the Earth, have been less focused and remain unclear. Here, we report the physical/chemical weathering process of the granitic rocks obtained from Dronning Maud Land in East Antarctica based on a multiplicity of petrological approaches. Loss on Ignition (LOI) and major element composition of the crust and core of the rock samples indicate that chemical weathering process in this area seems to be very limited. The microscopic observations and laser-Raman micro spectroscopy for thin sections from the crust and core indicate that goethite grains are formed mainly in the vein around the crust, which is consistent with the higher Fe3+/Fe2+ contrast from the core to crust. A negative correlation between the rock hardness and color strength index (CSI) values also indicate that crust of rock samples tend to less hard than core due to cracking of the rock samples and following goethite formation. On the other hand, EPMA analysis indicates that original Fe-Ti oxide grains in the core of rock samples are damaged by weathering, and altered to hematite, and to non-stoichiometric Fe-Ti compound associated with ilmenite grans in case of the higher relative height samples. These reveal that the weathering process of the plutonic rocks under the hyper-cold and hypothermal environment are mainly controlled by oxidation, including iron hydroxide formation in the veins formed by mechanical distraction, and Fe-Ti oxide alteration in rock interior.