WorldWideScience

Sample records for extreme weather patterns

  1. A multivariate extreme wave and storm surge climate emulator based on weather patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rueda, A.; Camus, P.; Tomás, A.; Vitousek, S.; Méndez, F. J.

    2016-08-01

    Coastal floods often coincide with large waves, storm surge and tides. Thus, joint probability methods are needed to properly characterize extreme sea levels. This work introduces a statistical downscaling framework for multivariate extremes that relates the non-stationary behavior of coastal flooding events to the occurrence probability of daily weather patterns. The proposed method is based on recently-developed weather-type methods to predict extreme events (e.g., significant wave height, mean wave period, surge level) from large-scale sea-level pressure fields. For each weather type, variables of interest are modeled using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions and a Gaussian copula for modelling the interdependence between variables. The statistical dependence between consecutive days is addressed by defining a climate-based extremal index for each weather type. This work allows attribution of extreme events to specific weather conditions, enhancing the knowledge of climate-driven coastal flooding.

  2. Evaluation of a compound distribution based on weather pattern subsampling for extreme rainfall in Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanchet, J.; Touati, J.; Lawrence, D.; Garavaglia, F.; Paquet, E.

    2015-12-01

    Simulation methods for design flood analyses require estimates of extreme precipitation for simulating maximum discharges. This article evaluates the multi-exponential weather pattern (MEWP) model, a compound model based on weather pattern classification, seasonal splitting and exponential distributions, for its suitability for use in Norway. The MEWP model is the probabilistic rainfall model used in the SCHADEX method for extreme flood estimation. Regional scores of evaluation are used in a split sample framework to compare the MEWP distribution with more general heavy-tailed distributions, in this case the Multi Generalized Pareto Weather Pattern (MGPWP) distribution. The analysis shows the clear benefit obtained from seasonal and weather pattern-based subsampling for extreme value estimation. The MEWP distribution is found to have an overall better performance as compared with the MGPWP, which tends to overfit the data and lacks robustness. Finally, we take advantage of the split sample framework to present evidence for an increase in extreme rainfall in the southwestern part of Norway during the period 1979-2009, relative to 1948-1978.

  3. Evaluation of a compound distribution based on weather pattern subsampling for extreme rainfall in Norway

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Blanchet

    2015-12-01

    SCHADEX method for extreme flood estimation. Regional scores of evaluation are used in a split sample framework to compare the MEWP distribution with more general heavy-tailed distributions, in this case the Multi Generalized Pareto Weather Pattern (MGPWP distribution. The analysis shows the clear benefit obtained from seasonal and weather pattern-based subsampling for extreme value estimation. The MEWP distribution is found to have an overall better performance as compared with the MGPWP, which tends to overfit the data and lacks robustness. Finally, we take advantage of the split sample framework to present evidence for an increase in extreme rainfall in the southwestern part of Norway during the period 1979–2009, relative to 1948–1978.

  4. Evaluation of a compound distribution based on weather patterns subsampling for extreme rainfall in Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanchet, J.; Touati, J.; Lawrence, D.; Garavaglia, F.; Paquet, E.

    2015-06-01

    Simulation methods for design flood analyses require estimates of extreme precipitation for simulating maximum discharges. This article evaluates the MEWP model, a compound model based on weather pattern classification, seasonal splitting and exponential distributions, for its suitability for use in Norway. The MEWP model is the probabilistic rainfall model used in the SCHADEX method for extreme flood estimation. Regional scores of evaluation are used in a split sample framework to compare the MEWP distribution with more general heavy-tailed distributions, in this case the Multi Generalized Pareto Weather Pattern (MGPWP) distribution. The analysis shows the clear benefit obtained from seasonal and weather pattern-based subsampling for extreme value estimation. The MEWP distribution is found to have an overall better performance as compared with the MGPWP, which tends to overfit the data and lacks robustness. Finally, we take advantage of the split sample framework to present evidence for an increase in extreme rainfall in the south-western part of Norway during the period 1979-2009, relative to 1948-1978.

  5. Recent Weather Extremes and Impacts on Agricultural Production and Vector-Borne Disease Outbreak Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-03-21

    emergence or re-emergence of disease vectors and pathogens of global public health relevance such as West Nile virus, malaria, dengue virus, cholera , Murray... Diseases (ProMED-mail), World Organiza- tion for Animal Health (OIE) (http://www.oie.int/) and US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention data records...Recent Weather Extremes and Impacts on Agricultural Production and Vector-Borne Disease Outbreak Patterns Assaf Anyamba1,4*, Jennifer L. Small1,5

  6. Weather patterns and hydro-climatological precursors of extreme floods in Switzerland since 1868

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Stucki

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The generation of 24 extreme floods in large catchments of the central Alps is analyzed from instrumental and documentary data, newly digitized observations of precipitation (DigiHom and 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR data. Extreme floods are determined by the 95th percentile of differences between an annual flood and a defined contemporary flood. For a selection of six events between 1868 and 1910, we describe preconditioning elements such as precipitation, temperature, and snow cover anomalies. Specific weather patterns are assessed through a subjective analysis of three-dimensional atmospheric circulation. A focus is placed on synoptic-scale features including mid-tropospheric ascent, low-level moisture transport, propagation of cyclones, and temperature anomalies. We propose a hydro-meteorological classification of all 24 investigated events according to flood-generating weather conditions. Key elements of the upper-level synoptic-scale flow are summarized by five types: (i pivoting cut-off lows, (ii elongated cut-off lows, (iii elongated troughs, (iv waves (with a kink, and (v approximately zonal flow over the Alpine region. We found that the most extreme floods (as above, but ≥ 98th percentile in Switzerland since 1868 were caused by the interaction of severe hydro-climatologic conditions with a flood-inducing weather situation. The 20CR data provide plausible synoptic-scale meteorological patterns leading to heavy precipitation. The proposed catalogue of weather patterns and hydro-climatologic precursors can give direction when anticipating the possibility of severe floods in the Alpine region.

  7. Recent Weather Extremes and Impacts on Agricultural Production and Vector-Borne Disease Outbreak Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anyamba, Assaf; Small, Jennifer L.; Britch, Seth C.; Tucker, Compton J.; Pak, Edwin W.; Reynolds, Curt A.; Crutchfield, James; Linthicum, Kenneth J.

    2014-01-01

    We document significant worldwide weather anomalies that affected agriculture and vector-borne disease outbreaks during the 2010-2012 period. We utilized 2000-2012 vegetation index and land surface temperature data from NASA's satellite-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to map the magnitude and extent of these anomalies for diverse regions including the continental United States, Russia, East Africa, Southern Africa, and Australia. We demonstrate that shifts in temperature and/or precipitation have significant impacts on vegetation patterns with attendant consequences for agriculture and public health. Weather extremes resulted in excessive rainfall and flooding as well as severe drought, which caused,10 to 80% variation in major agricultural commodity production (including wheat, corn, cotton, sorghum) and created exceptional conditions for extensive mosquito-borne disease outbreaks of dengue, Rift Valley fever, Murray Valley encephalitis, and West Nile virus disease. Analysis of MODIS data provided a standardized method for quantifying the extreme weather anomalies observed during this period. Assessments of land surface conditions from satellite-based systems such as MODIS can be a valuable tool in national, regional, and global weather impact determinations.

  8. Recent weather extremes and impacts on agricultural production and vector-borne disease outbreak patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anyamba, Assaf; Small, Jennifer L; Britch, Seth C; Tucker, Compton J; Pak, Edwin W; Reynolds, Curt A; Crutchfield, James; Linthicum, Kenneth J

    2014-01-01

    We document significant worldwide weather anomalies that affected agriculture and vector-borne disease outbreaks during the 2010-2012 period. We utilized 2000-2012 vegetation index and land surface temperature data from NASA's satellite-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to map the magnitude and extent of these anomalies for diverse regions including the continental United States, Russia, East Africa, Southern Africa, and Australia. We demonstrate that shifts in temperature and/or precipitation have significant impacts on vegetation patterns with attendant consequences for agriculture and public health. Weather extremes resulted in excessive rainfall and flooding as well as severe drought, which caused ∼10 to 80% variation in major agricultural commodity production (including wheat, corn, cotton, sorghum) and created exceptional conditions for extensive mosquito-borne disease outbreaks of dengue, Rift Valley fever, Murray Valley encephalitis, and West Nile virus disease. Analysis of MODIS data provided a standardized method for quantifying the extreme weather anomalies observed during this period. Assessments of land surface conditions from satellite-based systems such as MODIS can be a valuable tool in national, regional, and global weather impact determinations.

  9. Extreme weather events and infectious disease outbreaks

    OpenAIRE

    McMichael, Anthony J.

    2015-01-01

    Human-driven climatic changes will fundamentally influence patterns of human health, including infectious disease clusters and epidemics following extreme weather events. Extreme weather events are projected to increase further with the advance of human-driven climate change. Both recent and historical experiences indicate that infectious disease outbreaks very often follow extreme weather events, as microbes, vectors and reservoir animal hosts exploit the disrupted social and environmental c...

  10. Extreme weather events and infectious disease outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMichael, Anthony J

    2015-01-01

    Human-driven climatic changes will fundamentally influence patterns of human health, including infectious disease clusters and epidemics following extreme weather events. Extreme weather events are projected to increase further with the advance of human-driven climate change. Both recent and historical experiences indicate that infectious disease outbreaks very often follow extreme weather events, as microbes, vectors and reservoir animal hosts exploit the disrupted social and environmental conditions of extreme weather events. This review article examines infectious disease risks associated with extreme weather events; it draws on recent experiences including Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the 2010 Pakistan mega-floods, and historical examples from previous centuries of epidemics and 'pestilence' associated with extreme weather disasters and climatic changes. A fuller understanding of climatic change, the precursors and triggers of extreme weather events and health consequences is needed in order to anticipate and respond to the infectious disease risks associated with human-driven climate change. Post-event risks to human health can be constrained, nonetheless, by reducing background rates of persistent infection, preparatory action such as coordinated disease surveillance and vaccination coverage, and strengthened disaster response. In the face of changing climate and weather conditions, it is critically important to think in ecological terms about the determinants of health, disease and death in human populations.

  11. Extreme wind speed regime and weather patterns in the Barents Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surkova, Galina; Krylov, Aleksey

    2016-04-01

    The synoptic patterns of extreme wind events over the Barents Sea during 1981-2010 are studied on the base of ERA-Interim reanalysis data (6-hours, 0.75x0.75 degrees of latitude and longitude). Frequency of events was defined after analysis of 50, 95, 99, 99.9 percentiles (V(0.50), V(0.95), V(0.99), V(0.999)) of wind speed probability distribution function over the central part of the sea where wind speed is the highest. First part of the study was devoted to the features of seasonal and interannual variability of the surface (10 m) wind speed. Results showed very slow and statistically almost insignificant decreasing of wind speed for all percentile speed values during 1981-2010. The highest standard deviation for annual percentile speed values were derived for the most seldom events, V(0.999). Mean values for the central part of the Barents Sea are V(0.95)=14.3 m/s, V(0.99)=17.2 m/s, V(0.999)=20.3 m/s. At the next stage the calendar of extreme events with wind speed more the threshold value V(0.99) was extracted. Sea level pressure (SLP) fields for these extreme events were classified by cluster analysis. Formal detection of typical SLP fields accompanying by storm winds allows to evaluate their frequency in different time periods. It is more reliable then use of wind speed data because the accuracy of SLP simulation in re-analysis and climate models is higher than that for the wind speed. The progress of the work is seen as further development of climate projection of extreme events on the base of CMIP5 scenarios through the projection of synoptic situations that create these events as it was shown in our previous works. Developed methodology allows to assess the frequency of synoptic events accompanying by hazards, not only in the past, but in the future. The study was supported by the Russian Science Foundation (project no. 14-37-00038).

  12. Typical patterns of smallholder vulnerability to weather extremes with regard to food security in the Peruvian Altiplano

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sietz, D.; Mamani Choque, S.E.; Lûdeke, M.K.B.

    2012-01-01

    Smallholder livelihoods in the Peruvian Altiplano are frequently threatened by weather extremes, including droughts, frosts and heavy rainfall. Given the persistence of significant undernourishment despite regional development efforts, we propose a cluster approach to evaluate smallholders’ vulnerab

  13. Extreme Weather and Natural Disasters

    CERN Document Server

    Healey, Justin

    2012-01-01

    Australia is a vast land in which weather varies significantly in different parts of the continent. Recent extreme weather events in Australia, such as the Queensland floods and Victorian bushfires, are brutal reminders of nature's devastating power. Is global warming increasing the rate of natural disasters? What part do La Niña and El Niño play in the extreme weather cycle? Cyclones, floods, severe storms, bushfires, landslides, earthquakes, tsunamis - what are the natural and man-made causes of these phenomena, how predictable are they, and how prepared are we for the impacts of natural dis

  14. Weather and Climate Extremes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-09-01

    Antarctica’s highest (New Zealand Antarctic Society, 1974). This extreme exceeded the record of 58°F (14.4°C) that occurred on 20 October 1956 at Esperanza ... Esperanza (also known as Bahia Esperanza , Hope Bay) was in operation from 1945 through the early 1960s. Meteorological/Climatological Factors: This extreme...cm) Location: Grand Ilet, La R’eunion Island [21°00’S, 55°30’E] Date: 26 January 1980 WORLD’S GREATEST 24-HOUR RAINFALL 72 in (182.5 cm

  15. Extreme Geophysical and Weather Related Disasters in the First Decade of the XXI Century - How do the Patterns of these Two Groups of Perils Differ?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoeppe, P.; Faust, E.; Bove, M.

    2011-12-01

    The first decade of the 21st century saw natural disasters with an unprecedent level of losses, such as the costliest natural disaster ever, the earthquake and tsunami disaster of March 2011 in Japan (US 210bn in direct economic losses), or Hurricane Katrina in 2005 (US 125bn in direct economic losses). In the first half year of 2011, a fierce tornado season occurred in the US with record-breaking thunderstorm-related losses (US$ 24bn in direct economic losses). Analysing drivers of increasing losses, the most prominent one is increasing and more than ever spatially concentrated destroyable wealth in course of urban sprawl, where loss amplifying factors such as increasingly interwoven streams of goods and services across regions or knock-on catastrophes contribute to recently observed very large losses. Looking at longer time series of annually aggregated numbers and losses of geophysical and weather-related disasters, we find regional indications for the hypothesis that besides socioeconomic changes in wealth and development patterns also natural variability and climate change are already involved in the specific time series patterns of the weather-related proportion. This has to be seen against the background of scientific studies demonstrating an interrelation of anthropogenic climate change and weather extremes.

  16. Pushing the Envelope of Extreme Space Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesnell, W. D.

    2014-12-01

    Extreme Space Weather events are large solar flares or geomagnetic storms, which can cost billions of dollars to recover from. We have few examples of such events; the Carrington Event (the solar superstorm) is one of the few that had superlatives in three categories: size of solar flare, drop in Dst, and amplitude of aa. Kepler observations show that stars similar to the Sun can have flares releasing millions of times more energy than an X-class flare. These flares and the accompanying coronal mass ejections could strongly affect the atmosphere surrounding a planet. What level of solar activity would be necessary to strongly affect the atmosphere of the Earth? Can we map out the envelope of space weather along the evolution of the Sun? What would space weather look like if the Sun stopped producing a magnetic field? To what extreme should Space Weather go? These are the extremes of Space Weather explored in this talk.

  17. Weather Extremes Around the World

    Science.gov (United States)

    1974-04-01

    or ever has occurred. According to M. A. Arkin, "... record extremes must be taken with a grain of salt .... Ř He explains that news of an extreme...the edge of the Danakil Depression, a salt desert. By averaging the annual mean daily maximum temperature of 106°F36 atid the annual mean daily...increased by orographic lifting.1" Asa result of these monsoon disturbances, which are still not fully understood, the eastern Himalayan 105 106

  18. Insurance adaptation to extreme weather

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wakeford, C. [Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction, Toronto, ON (Canada)

    2005-07-01

    This paper examined the role of climate change as a catalyst for specific changes in insurance practices. The presentation addressed how insurance companies are adapting behaviours in response to increasing climate variability and growth in severe weather damage. It discussed ancient examples of insurance as well as more modern insurance practices. Statistics on the number of disasters, global natural disaster economic and insured losses and infrastructure spending are presented. Internal adaptation such as prospective underwriting and incentives and external adaptation such as working with governments and organizations and individuals were also discussed. It was concluded that directions for the future include continued research, heightened awareness and more resilient communities. 3 tabs.

  19. Climate change and extreme events in weather

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshKumar, M.R.

    monsoon and b) tropical cyclones. Basically the climate of India is domi- nated by the south west monsoon season which accounts for about 75% of the annual rainfall. The extreme weather events occur over India are: Floods, Droughts, Tropical Cyclones..., Heat Waves and Cold Waves, Storms Surges, Hail Storms, Thunderstorms, Dust Storms. Floods, droughts and tropical cyclones have specific significance a far as India is concerned. Floods and droughts are the two sides of the weather phenomena...

  20. Detection and attribution of extreme weather disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huggel, Christian; Stone, Dáithí; Hansen, Gerrit

    2014-05-01

    Single disasters related to extreme weather events have caused loss and damage on the order of up to tens of billions US dollars over the past years. Recent disasters fueled the debate about whether and to what extent these events are related to climate change. In international climate negotiations disaster loss and damage is now high on the agenda, and related policy mechanisms have been discussed or are being implemented. In view of funding allocation and effective risk reduction strategies detection and attribution to climate change of extreme weather events and disasters is a key issue. Different avenues have so far been taken to address detection and attribution in this context. Physical climate sciences have developed approaches, among others, where variables that are reasonably sampled over climatically relevant time periods and related to the meteorological characteristics of the extreme event are examined. Trends in these variables (e.g. air or sea surface temperatures) are compared between observations and climate simulations with and without anthropogenic forcing. Generally, progress has been made in recent years in attribution of changes in the chance of some single extreme weather events to anthropogenic climate change but there remain important challenges. A different line of research is primarily concerned with losses related to the extreme weather events over time, using disaster databases. A growing consensus is that the increase in asset values and in exposure are main drivers of the strong increase of economic losses over the past several decades, and only a limited number of studies have found trends consistent with expectations from climate change. Here we propose a better integration of existing lines of research in detection and attribution of extreme weather events and disasters by applying a risk framework. Risk is thereby defined as a function of the probability of occurrence of an extreme weather event, and the associated consequences

  1. Weather extremes could affect agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balcerak, Ernie

    2012-05-01

    As Earth's climate warms, agricultural producers will need to adapt. Changes, especially increases in extreme events, are already having an impact on food production, according to speakers at a 1 May session on agriculture and food security at the AGU Science Policy Conference. Christopher Field, director of the Department of Global Ecology at the Carnegie Institution for Science of Washington, D. C., pointed out the complex factors that come into play in understanding food security, including spatially varying controls and stresses, incomplete models, and the potential for threshold responses. Factors that are likely to cause problems include increasing population; increasing preference for meat, which needs more land and energy inputs to produce; climate change; and increasing use of agricultural lands for biomass energy.

  2. Extreme Convective Weather in Future Decades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gadian, Alan; Burton, Ralph; Groves, James; Blyth, Alan; Warner, James; Holland, Greg; Bruyere, Cindy; Done, James; Thielen, Jutta

    2016-04-01

    WISER (Weather Climate Change Impact Study at Extreme Resolution) is a project designed to analyse changes in extreme weather events in a future climate, using a weather model (WRF) which is able to resolve small scale processes. Use of a weather model is specifically designed to look at convection which is of a scale which cannot be resolved by climate models. The regional meso-scale precipitation events, which are critical in understanding climate change impacts will be analysed. A channel domain outer model, with a resolution of ~ 20km in the outer domain drives an inner domain of ~ 3 km resolution. Results from 1989-1994 and 2020-2024 and 2030-2034 will be presented to show the effects of extreme convective events over Western Europe. This presentation will provide details of the project. It will present data from the 1989-1994 ERA-interim and CCSM driven simulations, with analysis of the future years as defined above. The representation of pdfs of extreme precipitation, Outgoing Longwave Radiation and wind speeds, with preliminary comparison with observations will be discussed. It is also planned to use the output to drive the EFAS (European Flood model) to examine the predicted changes in quantity and frequency of severe and hazardous convective rainfall events and leading to the frequency of flash flooding due to heavy convective precipitation.

  3. Understanding relations between breeding bird species and extreme weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allstadt, A.; Bateman, B.; Pidgeon, A. M.; Radeloff, V.; Vavrus, S. J.; Keuler, N.; Clayton, M.; Albright, T.; Thogmartin, W.; Heglund, P.

    2013-12-01

    Extreme weather events are increasing in frequency due to climate change. Extreme weather events like periods of drought or cold snaps may impose hardship on many animal and plant populations. However, little is known about biotic response to extreme events. For example, some species experience population size changes in association with extreme weather, and some do not. However the mechanisms responsible for observed declines in avian abundance following heat waves and drought are not clear. Our goal was to characterize the population changes of North American bird species in relation to temperature and precipitation extremes using North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data. We derived standardized measures of extreme precipitation and air temperature based on phase 2 NASA Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2), an hourly 1/8 degree resolution land surface forcing dataset, and modeled population responses, during the breeding season, of 363 bird species. Of those species in which a change was observed, many demonstrated decreases in total population size, suggesting either mortality or reproductive failure (or both) are the causative mechanisms of this decline. A greater proportion of population changes were associated with extreme conditions in the same year than in the previous year. Some species exhibited population decreases in areas of extreme weather and increases in areas with environmental conditions more favorable to breeding while overall abundance remained relatively constant, which might indicate movement. The patterns of bird population changes in relation to extreme weather events provide insight for planners as they consider modifications to our national protected area network that will limit threats posed by climate change to bird populations.

  4. Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas, Katherine [National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC (United States)

    2016-03-31

    A report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine concludes it is now possible to estimate the influence of climate change on some types of extreme events. The science of extreme event attribution has advanced rapidly in recent years, giving new insight to the ways that human-caused climate change can influence the magnitude or frequency of some extreme weather events. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities. Confidence is strongest in attributing types of extreme events that are influenced by climate change through a well-understood physical mechanism, such as, the more frequent heat waves that are closely connected to human-caused global temperature increases, the report finds. Confidence is lower for other types of events, such as hurricanes, whose relationship to climate change is more complex and less understood at present. For any extreme event, the results of attribution studies hinge on how questions about the event's causes are posed, and on the data, modeling approaches, and statistical tools chosen for the analysis.

  5. Extreme weather and climate in Europe

    OpenAIRE

    van der Linden, Paul; Dempsey, Peter; Dunn, Robert; Caesar, John; KURNIK Blaz; Dankers, Rutger; Jol, Andre; Kunz, Michael; van Lanen, Henny; Benestad, Rasmus; Parry, Simon; Hilden, Mikael; Marx, Andreas; Mysiak, Jaroslav; Kendon, Lizzie

    2015-01-01

    This report describes the current scientific knowledge of extreme weather and climate events in Europe for the following variables: temperature, precipitation, hail, and drought (with the following types of drought: meteorological, hydrological and soil moisture). The content summarises key literature drawn from peer reviewed journals and other sources (business and government reports), and builds upon the synthesised results presented in international assessments such as IPCC reports. It des...

  6. The role of planetary waves in weather extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmstorf, Stefan; Coumou, Dim; Petoukhov, Vladimir

    2014-05-01

    The recent decade has seen an exceptional number of high-impact weather extremes in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, such as the European heat wave 2003, the Russian heat wave and the Indus river flood in Pakistan in 2010, the heat waves in the United States and southern Europe and catastrophic floods in China and Japan in 2012, the heat wave in the United States and the severe flooding in central Europe in 2013. Many of these events were associated with anomalous jet stream circulation patterns. Recently, a novel mechanism, involving the amplification of quasi-stationary Rossby waves by resonance with thermal and orographic forcing patterns, has been proposed that could explain many of these boreal summer extremes (1). We discuss the evidence linking planetary wave resonance to extreme weather events and present new analysis on temporal changes in the occurrence of wave resonance events. 1. Petoukhov, V., S. Rahmstorf, S. Petri, and H. J. Schellnhuber, 2013: Quasiresonant amplification of planetary waves and recent Northern Hemisphere weather extremes. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 110, 5336-5341

  7. Extreme weather: Subtropical floods and tropical cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaevitz, Daniel A.

    Extreme weather events have a large effect on society. As such, it is important to understand these events and to project how they may change in a future, warmer climate. The aim of this thesis is to develop a deeper understanding of two types of extreme weather events: subtropical floods and tropical cyclones (TCs). In the subtropics, the latitude is high enough that quasi-geostrophic dynamics are at least qualitatively relevant, while low enough that moisture may be abundant and convection strong. Extratropical extreme precipitation events are usually associated with large-scale flow disturbances, strong ascent, and large latent heat release. In the first part of this thesis, I examine the possible triggering of convection by the large-scale dynamics and investigate the coupling between the two. Specifically two examples of extreme precipitation events in the subtropics are analyzed, the 2010 and 2014 floods of India and Pakistan and the 2015 flood of Texas and Oklahoma. I invert the quasi-geostrophic omega equation to decompose the large-scale vertical motion profile to components due to synoptic forcing and diabatic heating. Additionally, I present model results from within the Column Quasi-Geostrophic framework. A single column model and cloud-revolving model are forced with the large-scale forcings (other than large-scale vertical motion) computed from the quasi-geostrophic omega equation with input data from a reanalysis data set, and the large-scale vertical motion is diagnosed interactively with the simulated convection. It is found that convection was triggered primarily by mechanically forced orographic ascent over the Himalayas during the India/Pakistan flood and by upper-level Potential Vorticity disturbances during the Texas/Oklahoma flood. Furthermore, a climate attribution analysis was conducted for the Texas/Oklahoma flood and it is found that anthropogenic climate change was responsible for a small amount of rainfall during the event but the

  8. Weather pattern climatology of the United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barchet, W.R.; Davis, W.E.

    1984-01-01

    In this study the geographic domain covered the 48 conterminous states of the United States. The daily synoptic weather pattern was classified into nine types for the 10-year period January 1, 1969 to December 31, 1978. Weather pattern types were defined relative to the classical polar front model of a mid-latitude cyclonic storm system and its associated air masses. Guidelines for classifying weather patterns on an operational basis were developed. These were applied to 3652 daily surface weather maps to produce a time series of weather pattern type at 120 grid points of a 160 point, 3/sup 0/ latitude by 4/sup 0/ longitude array over the United States. Statistics on the frequency of occurrence, persistence and alternation of weather patterns were calculated for each grid point. Summary statistics for the entire grid and for six regions were also presented. Frequency of occurrence and persistence were found to depend on the size and speed of movement of the weather pattern. Large, slow moving air masses had higher frequency of occurrence and longer persistence than small (fronts) or rapidly moving (or changing) features (fronts, storm centers). Some types showed distinct regional preferences. The subtropical maritime high occurred mainly in the south central and southeast. An indeterminate weather pattern type accounted for those weather patterns that did not fit the polar front model or were too disorganized to be classified. The intermountain thermal low of the desert southwest was one such feature that dominated both frequency of occurrence and persistence in this region. Alternation from one weather pattern to another followed the polar front model of a moving cyclonic storm. The tendency for anticyclonic weather patterns to become disorganized as they weakened was seen in the high percentage of these patterns that changed to an indeterminate pattern as they aged.

  9. Scaling a Survey Course in Extreme Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samson, P. J.

    2013-12-01

    "Extreme Weather" is a survey-level course offered at the University of Michigan that is broadcast via the web and serves as a research testbed to explore best practices for large class conduct. The course has led to the creation of LectureTools, a web-based student response and note-taking system that has been shown to increase student engagement dramatically in multiple courses by giving students more opportunities to participate in class. Included in this is the capacity to pose image-based questions (see image where question was "Where would you expect winds from the south") as well as multiple choice, ordered list, free response and numerical questions. Research in this class has also explored differences in learning outcomes from those who participate remotely versus those who physically come to class and found little difference. Moreover the technologies used allow instructors to conduct class from wherever they are while the students can still answer questions and engage in class discussion from wherever they are. This presentation will use LectureTools to demonstrate its features. Attendees are encouraged to bring a mobile device to the session to participate.

  10. Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, and Human Health Implications in the Asia Pacific Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashim, Jamal Hisham; Hashim, Zailina

    2016-03-01

    The Asia Pacific region is regarded as the most disaster-prone area of the world. Since 2000, 1.2 billion people have been exposed to hydrometeorological hazards alone through 1215 disaster events. The impacts of climate change on meteorological phenomena and environmental consequences are well documented. However, the impacts on health are more elusive. Nevertheless, climate change is believed to alter weather patterns on the regional scale, giving rise to extreme weather events. The impacts from extreme weather events are definitely more acute and traumatic in nature, leading to deaths and injuries, as well as debilitating and fatal communicable diseases. Extreme weather events include heat waves, cold waves, floods, droughts, hurricanes, tropical cyclones, heavy rain, and snowfalls. Globally, within the 20-year period from 1993 to 2012, more than 530 000 people died as a direct result of almost 15 000 extreme weather events, with losses of more than US$2.5 trillion in purchasing power parity.

  11. Public perceptions of climate change and extreme weather events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruine de Bruin, W.; Dessai, S.; Morgan, G.; Taylor, A.; Wong-Parodi, G.

    2013-12-01

    Climate experts face a serious communication challenge. Public debate about climate change continues, even though at the same time people seem to complain about extreme weather events becoming increasingly common. As compared to the abstract concept of ';climate change,' (changes in) extreme weather events are indeed easier to perceive, more vivid, and personally relevant. Public perception research in different countries has suggested that people commonly expect that climate change will lead to increases in temperature, and that unseasonably warm weather is likely to be interpreted as evidence of climate change. However, relatively little is known about whether public concerns about climate change may also be driven by changes in other types of extreme weather events, such as exceptional amounts of precipitation or flooding. We therefore examined how perceptions of and personal experiences with changes in these specific weather events are related to public concerns about climate change. In this presentation, we will discuss findings from two large public perception surveys conducted in flood-prone Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (US) and with a national sample in the UK, where extreme flooding has recently occurred across the country. Participants completed questions about their perceptions of and experiences with specific extreme weather events, and their beliefs about climate change. We then conducted linear regressions to predict individual differences in climate-change beliefs, using perceptions of and experiences with specific extreme weather events as predictors, while controlling for demographic characteristics. The US study found that people (a) perceive flood chances to be increasing over the decades, (b) believe climate change to play a role in increases in future flood chances, and (c) would interpret future increases in flooding as evidence for climate change. The UK study found that (a) UK residents are more likely to perceive increases in ';wet' events such

  12. Crop Diversiifcation in Coping with Extreme Weather Events in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HUANG Ji-kun; JIANG Jing; WANG Jin-xia; HOU Ling-ling

    2014-01-01

    Apart from the long-term effects of climate change, the frequency and severity of extreme weather events have been increasing. Given the risks posed by climate change, particularly the changes in extreme weather events, the question of how to adapt to these changes and mitigate their negative impacts has received great attention from policy makers. The overall goals of this study are to examine whether farmers adapt to extreme weather events through crop diversiifcation and which factors inlfuence farmers’ decisions on crop diversiifcation against extreme weather events in China. To limit the scope of this study, we focus on drought and lfood events only. Based on a unique large-scale household survey in nine provinces, this study ifnds that farmers respond to extreme weather events by increasing crop diversiifcation. Their decision to diversify crops is significantly influenced by their experiences of extreme weather events in the previous year. Such results are understandable because farmers’ behaviors are normally based on their expectations. Moreover, household characteristics also affect farmers’ decisions on crop diversiifcation strategy, and their effects differ by farmers’ age and gender. This paper concludes with several policy implications.

  13. Extreme water-related weather events and waterborne disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cann, K F; Thomas, D Rh; Salmon, R L; Wyn-Jones, A P; Kay, D

    2013-04-01

    Global climate change is expected to affect the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme water-related weather events such as excessive precipitation, floods, and drought. We conducted a systematic review to examine waterborne outbreaks following such events and explored their distribution between the different types of extreme water-related weather events. Four medical and meteorological databases (Medline, Embase, GeoRef, PubMed) and a global electronic reporting system (ProMED) were searched, from 1910 to 2010. Eighty-seven waterborne outbreaks involving extreme water-related weather events were identified and included, alongside 235 ProMED reports. Heavy rainfall and flooding were the most common events preceding outbreaks associated with extreme weather and were reported in 55·2% and 52·9% of accounts, respectively. The most common pathogens reported in these outbreaks were Vibrio spp. (21·6%) and Leptospira spp. (12·7%). Outbreaks following extreme water-related weather events were often the result of contamination of the drinking-water supply (53·7%). Differences in reporting of outbreaks were seen between the scientific literature and ProMED. Extreme water-related weather events represent a risk to public health in both developed and developing countries, but impact will be disproportionate and likely to compound existing health disparities.

  14. The relationship between extreme weather events and crop losses in central Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Li-Wei

    2017-09-01

    The frequency of extreme weather events, which cause severe crop losses, is increasing. This study investigates the relationship between crop losses and extreme weather events in central Taiwan from 2003 to 2015 and determines the main factors influencing crop losses. Data regarding the crop loss area and meteorological information were obtained from government agencies. The crops were categorised into the following five groups: `grains', `vegetables', `fruits', `flowers' and `other crops'. The extreme weather events and their synoptic weather patterns were categorised into six and five groups, respectively. The data were analysed using the z score, correlation coefficient and stepwise regression model. The results show that typhoons had the highest frequency of all extreme weather events (58.3%). The largest crop loss area (4.09%) was caused by two typhoons and foehn wind in succession. Extreme wind speed coupled with heavy rainfall is an important factor affecting the losses in the grain and vegetable groups. Extreme wind speed is a common variable that affects the loss of `grains', `vegetables', `fruits' and `flowers'. Consecutive extreme weather events caused greater crop losses than individual events. Crops with long production times suffered greater losses than those with short production times. This suggests that crops with physical structures that can be easily damaged and long production times would benefit from protected cultivation to maintain food security.

  15. Extreme weather caused by concurrent cyclone, front and thunderstorm occurrences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowdy, Andrew J.; Catto, Jennifer L.

    2017-01-01

    Phenomena such as cyclones, fronts and thunderstorms can cause extreme weather in various regions throughout the world. Although these phenomena have been examined in numerous studies, they have not all been systematically examined in combination with each other, including in relation to extreme precipitation and extreme winds throughout the world. Consequently, the combined influence of these phenomena represents a substantial gap in the current understanding of the causes of extreme weather events. Here we present a systematic analysis of cyclones, fronts and thunderstorms in combination with each other, as represented by seven different types of storm combinations. Our results highlight the storm combinations that most frequently cause extreme weather in various regions of the world. The highest risk of extreme precipitation and extreme wind speeds is found to be associated with a triple storm type characterized by concurrent cyclone, front and thunderstorm occurrences. Our findings reveal new insight on the relationships between cyclones, fronts and thunderstorms and clearly demonstrate the importance of concurrent phenomena in causing extreme weather.

  16. Composite circulation index of weather extremes (the example for Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zbigniew Ustrnul

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the implementation of a composite circulation index of weather extremes (CIE. The new index informs about the synoptic conditions favoring the occurrence of extremes on a regional scale. It was evaluated for temperature and precipitation extremes for Poland. Daily homogenized data obtained from 14 weather stations, which cover most of the country, were used. The data used cover the 60-year period from 1951 to 2010. The index is based on relationships between extremes and mesoscale circulation conditions. The core material also included data describing circulation types for the study period. Three different calendars were used (Grosswetterlagen, by Lity?ski, by Nied?wied?. The conditional probability of the occurrence of extremes for particular types was calculated independently using partial indices (Partial Index of weather Extremes ? PIE. The higher the index values, the more favorable the synoptic situation for the occurrence of extremes. The results were grouped by describing the probability of temperature and precipitation extremes on the IPCC likelihood scale. Three thresholds corresponding to the frequency of an occurrence were identified via a seasonal approach. The CIE was validated using basic correlation coefficients as well as contingency tables based on feature-displacement criteria and Bayesian Probability Methods. The results confirmed the significance of atmospheric circulation in the formation of temperature and precipitation extremes in Poland. The CIE proved the relationship by trying to estimate the probability of temperature and precipitation extremes occurrence depending on the circulation type forecasted.

  17. Extreme weather-year sequences have non-additive effects on environmental nitrogen losses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iqbal, Javed; Necpalova, Magdalena; Archontoulis, Sotirios V; Anex, Robert P; Bourguignon, Marie; Herzmann, Daryl; Mitchell, David C; Sawyer, John E; Zhu, Qing; Castellano, Michael J

    2017-08-14

    The frequency and intensity of extreme weather years, characterized by abnormal precipitation and temperature, are increasing. In isolation, these years have disproportionately large effects on environmental N losses. However, the sequence of extreme weather years (e.g., wet-dry vs. dry-wet) may affect cumulative N losses. We calibrated and validated the DAYCENT ecosystem process model with a comprehensive set of biogeophysical measurements from a corn-soybean rotation managed at three N fertilizer inputs with and without a winter cover crop in Iowa, USA. Our objectives were to determine: i) how two-year sequences of extreme weather affect two-year cumulative N losses across the crop rotation, and ii) if N fertilizer management and the inclusion of a winter cover crop between corn and soybean mitigate the effect of extreme weather on N losses. Using historical weather (1951-2013), we created nine two-year scenarios with all possible combinations of the driest ('dry'), wettest ('wet'), and average ('normal') weather years. We analyzed the effects of these scenarios following several consecutive years of relatively normal weather. Compared to the normal-normal two-year weather scenario, two-year extreme weather scenarios affected two-year cumulative NO3(-) leaching (range: -93 to +290%) more than N2 O emissions (range: -49 to +18%). The two-year weather scenarios had non-additive effects on N losses: compared to the normal-normal scenario, the dry-wet sequence decreased two-year cumulative N2 O emissions while the wet-dry sequence increased two-year cumulative N2 O emissions. Although dry weather decreased NO3(-) leaching and N2 O emissions in isolation, two-year cumulative N losses from the wet-dry scenario were greater than the dry-wet scenario. Cover crops reduced the effects of extreme weather on NO3(-) leaching but had a lesser effect on N2 O emissions. As the frequency of extreme weather is expected to increase, these data suggest that the sequence of inter

  18. A Statistical Framework to Evaluate Extreme Weather Definitions from A Health Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaidyanathan, Ambarish; Kegler, scott R.; Saha, Shubhayu S.; Mulholland, James A.

    2017-01-01

    A statistical framework for evaluating definitions of extreme weather phenomena can help weather agencies and health departments identify the definition(s) most applicable for alerts nd other preparedness operations related to extreme weather episodes. PMID:28883666

  19. Daily Weather and Children's Physical Activity Patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remmers, Teun; Thijs, Carel; Timperio, Anna; Salmon, J O; Veitch, Jenny; Kremers, Stef P J; Ridgers, Nicola D

    2017-05-01

    Understanding how the weather affects physical activity (PA) may help in the design, analysis, and interpretation of future studies, especially when investigating PA across diverse meteorological settings and with long follow-up periods. The present longitudinal study first aims to examine the influence of daily weather elements on intraindividual PA patterns among primary school children across four seasons, reflecting day-to-day variation within each season. Second, we investigate whether the influence of weather elements differs by day of the week (weekdays vs weekends), gender, age, and body mass index. PA data were collected by ActiGraph accelerometers for 1 wk in each of four school terms that reflect each season in southeast Australia. PA data from 307 children (age range 8.7-12.8 yr) were matched to daily meteorological variables obtained from the Australian Government's Bureau of Meteorology (maximum temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation, day length, and rainfall). Daily PA patterns and their association with weather elements were analyzed using multilevel linear mixed models. Temperature was the strongest predictor of moderate and vigorous PA, followed by solar radiation and humidity. The relation with temperature was curvilinear, showing optimum PA levels at temperatures between 20°C and 22°C. Associations between weather elements on PA did not differ by gender, child's age, or body mass index. This novel study focused on the influence of weather elements on intraindividual PA patterns in children. As weather influences cannot be controlled, knowledge of its effect on individual PA patterns may help in the design of future studies, interpretation of their results, and translation into PA promotion.

  20. An extreme value model for maximum wave heights based on weather types

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rueda, Ana; Camus, Paula; Méndez, Fernando J.; Tomás, Antonio; Luceño, Alberto

    2016-02-01

    Extreme wave heights are climate-related events. Therefore, special attention should be given to the large-scale weather patterns responsible for wave generation in order to properly understand wave climate variability. We propose a classification of weather patterns to statistically downscale daily significant wave height maxima to a local area of interest. The time-dependent statistical model obtained here is based on the convolution of the stationary extreme value model associated to each weather type. The interdaily dependence is treated by a climate-related extremal index. The model's ability to reproduce different time scales (daily, seasonal, and interannual) is presented by means of its application to three locations in the North Atlantic: Mayo (Ireland), La Palma Island, and Coruña (Spain).

  1. Influence of extreme weather disasters on global crop production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lesk, Corey; Rowhani, Pedram; Ramankutty, Navin

    2016-01-07

    In recent years, several extreme weather disasters have partially or completely damaged regional crop production. While detailed regional accounts of the effects of extreme weather disasters exist, the global scale effects of droughts, floods and extreme temperature on crop production are yet to be quantified. Here we estimate for the first time, to our knowledge, national cereal production losses across the globe resulting from reported extreme weather disasters during 1964-2007. We show that droughts and extreme heat significantly reduced national cereal production by 9-10%, whereas our analysis could not identify an effect from floods and extreme cold in the national data. Analysing the underlying processes, we find that production losses due to droughts were associated with a reduction in both harvested area and yields, whereas extreme heat mainly decreased cereal yields. Furthermore, the results highlight ~7% greater production damage from more recent droughts and 8-11% more damage in developed countries than in developing ones. Our findings may help to guide agricultural priorities in international disaster risk reduction and adaptation efforts.

  2. Extreme weather impacts on European networks of transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leviakangas, P.

    2012-04-01

    The EWENT project addresses the European Union (EU) policies and strategies related to climate change, with a particular focus on extreme weather impacts on the EU transportation system. This project is funded by the Seventh Framework Programme (Transports, call ID FPT7-TPT-2008-RTD-1). EWENT Work Package 1 (WP1) focuses particularly on identification and definition of extreme weather events within the European transport system. In the context of the EWENT project, the following definition for extreme weather events related to transport systems was used: "Extreme events are generally rare events. The events cause the exceeding of maximum values and/or pre-existing (measured) high (low) thresholds of certain weather parameters and generate impacts that are harmful to any part of the transport system (infrastructures, operations, vehicles, passengers or cargo)". Weather has major impacts on transportation. EWENT WP1 used three different approaches to assess the impacts and consequences extreme weather phenomena cause to the transport system. Firstly, an extensive traditional review of the professional literature has been carried out. Secondly, media mining has been done in order to obtain more empirical data and assess which transport modes in different parts of Europe seem to be most affected. Thirdly, a compilation of specific case studies on past extreme incidents has been prepared, helping to assess the specific consequences of certain phenomena. EWENT WP1 introduces a review of extreme weather phenomena and identifies their impacts and consequences on European transport system. All modes of transport are covered. Critical threshold values for most relevant weather phenomena that affect different transport modes have been established. The related impacts and consequences result in deterioration in the service level of transportation system. A dozen different impact mechanisms have been charted. The collaborators in the team for this part of the EWENT Project are

  3. Measuring the effects of extreme weather events on yields

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.P. Powell

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Extreme weather events are expected to increase worldwide, therefore, anticipating and calculating their effects on crop yields is important for topics ranging from food security to the economic viability of biomass products. Given the local nature of weather, particularly precipitation, effects are best measured at a local level. This paper analyzes weather events at the level of the farm for a specific crop, winter wheat. Once it has been established that extreme events are expected to continue occurring at historically high levels for farming locations throughout the Netherlands, the effects of those events on wheat yields are estimated while controlling for the other major input factors affecting yields. Econometric techniques are applied to an unbalanced panel data set of 334 farms for a period of up to 12 years. Analyzes show that the number of days with extreme high temperatures in Dutch wheat growing regions has significantly increased since the early 1900s, while the number of extreme low temperature events has fallen over that same period. The effects of weather events on wheat yields were found to be time specific in that the week in which an event occurred determined its effect on yields. High temperature events and precipitation events were found to significantly decrease yields.

  4. Extreme Weather Risk Assessment: The Case of Jiquilisco, El Salvador

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melendez, Karla; Ceppi, Claudia; Molero, Juanjo; Rios Insua, David

    2014-05-01

    All major climate models predict increases in both global and regional mean temperatures throughout this century, under different scenarios concerning future trends in population growth or economic and technological development. This consistency of results across models has strengthened the evidence about global warming. Despite the convincing facts and findings of climate researchers, there is still a great deal of skepticism around climate change. There is somewhat less consensus about some of the consequences of climate change, for example in reference to extreme weather changes, in particular as regards more local scales. However, such changes seem to have already considerable impact in many regions across the world in terms of lives, economic losses, and required changes in lifestyles. This may demand appropriate policy responses both at national and local levels. Our work provides a framework for extreme weather multithreat risk management, based on probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). This may be useful in comparing the effectiveness of different actions to manage risks and inform judgment concerning the appropriate resource allocation to mitigate the risks. The methodology has been applied to the case study of the "El Marillo II" community, located in the municipality of Jiquilisco in El Salvador. There, the main problem related with extreme weather conditions are the frequent floods caused by rainfall, hurricanes , and water increases in the Lempa river nearby located. However, droughts are also very relevant. Based on several sources like SNET, newspapers, field visits to the region and interviews, we have built a detailed database that comprises extreme weather daily data from January 1971 until December 2011. Forecasting models for floods and droughts were built suggesting the need to properly manage the risks. We subsequently obtained the optimal portfolio of countermeasures, given the budget constraints. KEYWORDS: CLIMATE CHANGE, EXTREME WEATHER, RISK

  5. Predicting and mitigating impacts of extreme space weather (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, D. N.

    2010-12-01

    Vulnerability of society to extreme space weather is an issue of increasing worldwide concern. For example, electric power networks connecting widely separated geographic areas may incur devastating damage induced by geomagnetic storms. Also, the miniaturization of electronic components in spacecraft systems makes them potentially much more susceptible to damage during space weather disturbances. The conclusion of a recent National Academy of Sciences report was that severe space weather events can cause tens of millions to many billions of dollars of damage to space and ground-based assets during major solar storms. The most extreme events could cause months-long power outages and could cost >1$ trillion. In this presentation, we discuss broad socioeconomic impacts of space weather and also discuss the immense potential benefits of improved space weather forecasts. Such forecasts take advantage of our increased understanding of the Earth’s space environmental conditions and the causative solar drivers. We consider scenarios of how forecasts could be used most effectively by policy makers and management officials.

  6. How to assess extreme weather impacts - case European transport network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leviäkangas, P.

    2010-09-01

    To assess the impacts of climate change and preparing for impacts is a process. This process we must understand and learn to apply. EWENT (Extreme Weather impacts on European Networks of Transport) will be a test bench for one prospective approach. It has the following main components: 1) identifying what is "extreme", 2) assessing the change in the probabilities, 3) constructing the causal impact models, 4) finding appropriate methods of pricing and costing, 5) finding alternative strategy option, 6) assessing the efficiency of strategy option. This process follows actually the steps of standardized risk management process. Each step is challenging, but if EWENT project succeeds to assess the extreme weather impacts on European transport networks, it is one possible benchmark how to carry out similar analyses in other regions and on country level. EWENT approach could particularly useful for weather and climate information service providers, offering tools for transport authorities and financiers to assess weather risks, and then rationally managing the risks. EWENT project is financed by the European Commission and participated by met-service organisations and transport research institutes from different parts of Europe. The presentation will explain EWENT approach in detail and bring forth the findings of the first work packages.

  7. Extreme Space Weather Impact: An Emergency Management Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacAlester, Mark H.; Murtagh, William

    2014-08-01

    In 2010, the Department of Homeland Security's Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) partnered with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) to investigate the potential for extreme space weather conditions to impact National Security/Emergency Preparedness communications—those communications vital to a functioning government and to emergency and disaster response—in the United States. Given the interdependencies of modern critical infrastructure, the initial systematic review of academic research on space weather effects on communications expanded to other critical infrastructure sectors, federal agencies, and private sector organizations. While the effort is ongoing, and despite uncertainties inherent with this hazard, FEMA and the SWPC did draw some conclusions. If electric power remains available, an extreme space weather event will result in the intermittent loss of HF and similar sky wave radio systems, minimal direct impact to public safety line-of-sight radio and commercial cellular services, a relatively small loss of satellite services as a percentage of the total satellite fleet, interference or intermittent loss of satellite communications and GPS navigation and timing signals, and no first-order impact to consumer electronic devices. Vulnerability of electric power to an extreme geomagnetic storm remains the primary concern from an emergency management perspective, but actual impact is not well understood at present. A discussion of potential impacts to infrastructure from the loss of electric power from any hazard is provided using the 2011 record tornado outbreak in Alabama as an example.

  8. Tools in Support of Planning for Weather and Climate Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Done, J.; Bruyere, C. L.; Hauser, R.; Holland, G. J.; Tye, M. R.

    2016-12-01

    A major limitation to planning for weather and climate extremes is the lack of maintained and readily available tools that can provide robust and well-communicated predictions and advice on their impacts. The National Center for Atmospheric Research is facilitating a collaborative international program to develop and support such tools within its Capacity Center for Climate and Weather Extremes aimed at improving community resilience planning and reducing weather and climate impacts. A Global Risk, Resilience and Impacts Toolbox is in development and will provide: A portable web-based interface to process work requests from a variety of users and locations; A sophisticated framework that enables specialized community tools to access a comprehensive database (public and private) of geo-located hazard, vulnerability, exposure, and loss data; A community development toolkit that enables and encourages community tool developments geared towards specific user man­agement and planning needs, and A comprehensive community sup­port facilitated by NCAR utilizing tutorials and a help desk. A number of applications are in development, built off the latest climate science, and in collaboration with private industry and local and state governments. Example applications will be described, including a hurricane damage tool in collaboration with the reinsurance sector, and a weather management tool for the construction industry. These examples will serve as starting points to discuss the broader potential of the toolbox.

  9. Observations and Impact Assessments of Extreme Space Weather Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, D. N.

    2007-05-01

    "Space weather" refers to conditions on the Sun, in the solar wind, and in Earth`s magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere. Activity on the Sun such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections can lead to high levels of radiation in space and can cause major magnetic storms at the Earth. Space radiation can come as energetic particles or as electromagnetic emissions. Adverse conditions in the near-Earth space environment can cause disruption of satellite operations, communications, navigation, and electric power distribution grids. This can lead to a variety of socioeconomic losses. Astronauts and airline passengers exposed to high levels of radiation are also at risk. Society`s vulnerability to space weather effects is an issue of increasing concern. We are dependent on technological systems that are becoming more susceptible to space weather disturbances. We also have a permanent human presence in space with the International Space Station and the President and NASA have expressed a desire to expand our human space activities with missions to the moon and Mars. This will make space weather of even greater concern in the future. In this talk I will describe many space weather effects and will describe some of the societal and economic impacts that extreme events have had.

  10. Inferences on weather extremes and weather-related disasters: a review of statistical methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Visser

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The study of weather extremes and their impacts, such as weather-related disasters, plays an important role in research of climate change. Due to the great societal consequences of extremes – historically, now and in the future – the peer-reviewed literature on this theme has been growing enormously since the 1980s. Data sources have a wide origin, from century-long climate reconstructions from tree rings to relatively short (30 to 60 yr databases with disaster statistics and human impacts.

    When scanning peer-reviewed literature on weather extremes and its impacts, it is noticeable that many different methods are used to make inferences. However, discussions on these methods are rare. Such discussions are important since a particular methodological choice might substantially influence the inferences made. A calculation of a return period of once in 500 yr, based on a normal distribution will deviate from that based on a Gumbel distribution. And the particular choice between a linear or a flexible trend model might influence inferences as well.

    In this article, a concise overview of statistical methods applied in the field of weather extremes and weather-related disasters is given. Methods have been evaluated as to stationarity assumptions, the choice for specific probability density functions (PDFs and the availability of uncertainty information. As for stationarity assumptions, the outcome was that good testing is essential. Inferences on extremes may be wrong if data are assumed stationary while they are not. The same holds for the block-stationarity assumption. As for PDF choices it was found that often more than one PDF shape fits to the same data. From a simulation study the conclusion can be drawn that both the generalized extreme value (GEV distribution and the log-normal PDF fit very well to a variety of indicators. The application of the normal and Gumbel distributions is more limited. As for uncertainty, it is

  11. Inferences on weather extremes and weather-related disasters: a review of statistical methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Visser

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The study of weather extremes and their impacts, such as weather-related disasters, plays an important role in climate-change research. Due to the great societal consequences of extremes – historically, now and in the future – the peer-reviewed literature on this theme has been growing enormously since the 1980s. Data sources have a wide origin, from century-long climate reconstructions from tree rings to short databases with disaster statistics and human impacts (30 to 60 yr.

    In scanning the peer-reviewed literature on weather extremes and impacts thereof we noticed that many different methods are used to make inferences. However, discussions on methods are rare. Such discussions are important since a particular methodological choice might substantially influence the inferences made. A calculation of a return period of once in 500 yr, based on a normal distribution will deviate from that based on a Gumbel distribution. And the particular choice between a linear or a flexible trend model might influence inferences as well.

    In this article we give a concise overview of statistical methods applied in the field of weather extremes and weather-related disasters. Methods have been evaluated as to stationarity assumptions, the choice for specific probability density functions (PDFs and the availability of uncertainty information. As for stationarity we found that good testing is essential. Inferences on extremes may be wrong if data are assumed stationary while they are not. The same holds for the block-stationarity assumption. As for PDF choices we found that often more than one PDF shape fits to the same data. From a simulation study we conclude that both the generalized extreme value (GEV distribution and the log-normal PDF fit very well to a variety of indicators. The application of the normal and Gumbel distributions is more limited. As for uncertainty it is advised to test conclusions on extremes for assumptions underlying

  12. A comparative assessment of statistical methods for extreme weather analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlögl, Matthias; Laaha, Gregor

    2017-04-01

    Extreme weather exposure assessment is of major importance for scientists and practitioners alike. We compare different extreme value approaches and fitting methods with respect to their value for assessing extreme precipitation and temperature impacts. Based on an Austrian data set from 25 meteorological stations representing diverse meteorological conditions, we assess the added value of partial duration series over the standardly used annual maxima series in order to give recommendations for performing extreme value statistics of meteorological hazards. Results show the merits of the robust L-moment estimation, which yielded better results than maximum likelihood estimation in 62 % of all cases. At the same time, results question the general assumption of the threshold excess approach (employing partial duration series, PDS) being superior to the block maxima approach (employing annual maxima series, AMS) due to information gain. For low return periods (non-extreme events) the PDS approach tends to overestimate return levels as compared to the AMS approach, whereas an opposite behavior was found for high return levels (extreme events). In extreme cases, an inappropriate threshold was shown to lead to considerable biases that may outperform the possible gain of information from including additional extreme events by far. This effect was neither visible from the square-root criterion, nor from standardly used graphical diagnosis (mean residual life plot), but from a direct comparison of AMS and PDS in synoptic quantile plots. We therefore recommend performing AMS and PDS approaches simultaneously in order to select the best suited approach. This will make the analyses more robust, in cases where threshold selection and dependency introduces biases to the PDS approach, but also in cases where the AMS contains non-extreme events that may introduce similar biases. For assessing the performance of extreme events we recommend conditional performance measures that focus

  13. Impacts of Amazon deforestation on regional weather and climate extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medvigy, D.; Walko, R. L.; Avissar, R.

    2010-12-01

    Recent deforestation projections estimate that 40% of the Amazon rainforest will be deforested by 2050. Many modeling studies have indicated that deforestation will reduce average rainfall in the Amazon. However, very few studies have investigated the potential for deforestation to change the frequency and intensity of extreme climate and weather events. To fill this gap in our understanding, we use a variable-resolution GCM to investigate how precipitation and temperature extremes throughout South America respond to deforestation. The model’s grid mesh is set up to cover South America and nearby oceans at mesoscale (25 km) resolution, and then to gradually coarsen and cover the rest of the world at 200 km resolution. This approach differs from the two most common current approaches: (1) to use a GCM with too coarse of a resolution to evaluate regional climate extremes, or (2) to use a regional atmospheric model that requires lateral boundary conditions from a GCM or reanalysis. We find that deforestation induces large changes in winter (June-July-August) climate throughout much of South America. Extreme cold events become much more common along the eastern slopes of the Andes. The largest changes were in the western Amazon and, surprisingly, in Argentina, far from the actual deforested area. We also find shifts in precipitation extremes, especially in September-October-November. Such changes in temperature and precipitation extremes have important consequences for agriculture, natural ecosystems, and human society.

  14. Climate Central World Weather Attribution (WWA) project: Real-time extreme weather event attribution analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haustein, Karsten; Otto, Friederike; Uhe, Peter; Allen, Myles; Cullen, Heidi

    2015-04-01

    Extreme weather detection and attribution analysis has emerged as a core theme in climate science over the last decade or so. By using a combination of observational data and climate models it is possible to identify the role of climate change in certain types of extreme weather events such as sea level rise and its contribution to storm surges, extreme heat events and droughts or heavy rainfall and flood events. These analyses are usually carried out after an extreme event has occurred when reanalysis and observational data become available. The Climate Central WWA project will exploit the increasing forecast skill of seasonal forecast prediction systems such as the UK MetOffice GloSea5 (Global seasonal forecasting system) ensemble forecasting method. This way, the current weather can be fed into climate models to simulate large ensembles of possible weather scenarios before an event has fully emerged yet. This effort runs along parallel and intersecting tracks of science and communications that involve research, message development and testing, staged socialization of attribution science with key audiences, and dissemination. The method we employ uses a very large ensemble of simulations of regional climate models to run two different analyses: one to represent the current climate as it was observed, and one to represent the same events in the world that might have been without human-induced climate change. For the weather "as observed" experiment, the atmospheric model uses observed sea surface temperature (SST) data from GloSea5 (currently) and present-day atmospheric gas concentrations to simulate weather events that are possible given the observed climate conditions. The weather in the "world that might have been" experiments is obtained by removing the anthropogenic forcing from the observed SSTs, thereby simulating a counterfactual world without human activity. The anthropogenic forcing is obtained by comparing the CMIP5 historical and natural simulations

  15. On the Probability of Occurrence of Extreme Space Weather Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riley, Pete

    2012-01-01

    By virtue of their rarity, extreme space weather events, such as the Carrington event of 1859, are difficult to study, their rates of occurrence are difficult to estimate, and prediction of a specific future event is virtually impossible. Additionally, events may be extreme relative to one parameter but normal relative to others. In this study, we analyze several measures of the severity of space weather events (flare intensity, coronal mass ejection speeds, Dst, and greater than 30 MeV proton fluences as inferred from nitrate records) to estimate the probability of occurrence of extreme events. By showing that the frequency of occurrence scales as an inverse power of the severity of the event, and assuming that this relationship holds at higher magnitudes, we are able to estimate the probability that an event larger than some criteria will occur within a certain interval of time in the future. For example, the probability of another Carrington event (based on Dst less than - 850 nT) occurring within the next decade is approximately 12%. We also identify and address several limitations with this approach. In particular, we assume time stationarity, and thus, the effects of long-term space climate change are not considered. While this technique cannot be used to predict specific events, it may ultimately be useful for probabilistic forecasting.

  16. On the Probability of Occurrence of Extreme Space Weather Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riley, Pete

    2012-01-01

    By virtue of their rarity, extreme space weather events, such as the Carrington event of 1859, are difficult to study, their rates of occurrence are difficult to estimate, and prediction of a specific future event is virtually impossible. Additionally, events may be extreme relative to one parameter but normal relative to others. In this study, we analyze several measures of the severity of space weather events (flare intensity, coronal mass ejection speeds, Dst, and greater than 30 MeV proton fluences as inferred from nitrate records) to estimate the probability of occurrence of extreme events. By showing that the frequency of occurrence scales as an inverse power of the severity of the event, and assuming that this relationship holds at higher magnitudes, we are able to estimate the probability that an event larger than some criteria will occur within a certain interval of time in the future. For example, the probability of another Carrington event (based on Dst less than - 850 nT) occurring within the next decade is approximately 12%. We also identify and address several limitations with this approach. In particular, we assume time stationarity, and thus, the effects of long-term space climate change are not considered. While this technique cannot be used to predict specific events, it may ultimately be useful for probabilistic forecasting.

  17. No evidence of the effect of extreme weather events on annual occurrence of four groups of ectothermic species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agnieszka H Malinowska

    Full Text Available Weather extremes may have strong effects on biodiversity, as known from theoretical and modelling studies. Predicted negative effects of increased weather variation are found only for a few species, mostly plants and birds in empirical studies. Therefore, we investigated correlations between weather variability and patterns in occupancy, local colonisations and local extinctions (metapopulation metrics across four groups of ectotherms: Odonata, Orthoptera, Lepidoptera, and Reptilia. We analysed data of 134 species on a 1×1 km-grid base, collected in the last 20 years from the Netherlands, combining standardised data and opportunistic data. We applied dynamic site-occupancy models and used the results as input for analyses of (i trends in distribution patterns, (ii the effect of temperature on colonisation and persistence probability, and (iii the effect of years with extreme weather on all the three metapopulation metrics. All groups, except butterflies, showed more positive than negative trends in metapopulation metrics. We did not find evidence that the probability of colonisation or persistence increases with temperature nor that extreme weather events are reflected in higher extinction risks. We could not prove that weather extremes have visible and consistent negative effects on ectothermic species in temperate northern hemisphere. These findings do not confirm the general prediction that increased weather variability imperils biodiversity. We conclude that weather extremes might not be ecologically relevant for the majority of species. Populations might be buffered against weather variation (e.g. by habitat heterogeneity, or other factors might be masking the effects (e.g. availability and quality of habitat. Consequently, we postulate that weather extremes have less, or different, impact in real world metapopulations than theory and models suggest.

  18. Quasiresonant amplification of planetary waves and recent Northern Hemisphere weather extremes

    OpenAIRE

    Petoukhov, Vladimir; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Petri, Stefan; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

    2013-01-01

    In recent years, the Northern Hemisphere has suffered several devastating regional summer weather extremes, such as the European heat wave in 2003, the Russian heat wave and the Indus river flood in Pakistan in 2010, and the heat wave in the United States in 2011. Here, we propose a common mechanism for the generation of persistent longitudinal planetary-scale high-amplitude patterns of the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. Those patterns—with zonal wave numbers...

  19. High resolution simulations of extreme weather event in south Sardinia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dessy, C.

    2010-05-01

    In the last decade, like most region of Mediterranean Europe, Sardinia has experienced severe precipitation events generating flash floods resulting in loss of lives and large economic damage. A numerical meteorological operational set-up is applied in the local weather service with the aim to improve the operational short range weather forecast of the Service with particular attention to intense, mostly rare and potentially severe, events. On the early hours of 22 October 2008 an intense and almost stationary mesoscale convective system interested particularly the south of Sardinia, heavy precipitation caused a flash flood with fatalities and numerous property damages. The event was particularly intense: about 400 mm of rain in 12 hours (a peak of 150 mm in an hour) were misured by the regional network of weather stations and these values appear extremely meaningfulls since those are about seven times the climatological monthly rainfall for that area and nearly the climatological annual rainfall. With the aim to improve significantly quantitative precipitation forecasting, it was evaluated a different set-up of a high resolution convection resolving model (MM5) initialised with different initial and boundary conditions (ECMWF and NCAR). In this paper it is discussed the meteorological system related to the mentioned event by using different numerical weather models (GCM and LAM) combined with conventional data, radar Doppler and Meteosat images. Preliminary results say that a different set-up of a non hydrostatic model can forecast severe convection events in advance of about one day and produce more realistic rainfall than that current operational and also improve the weather forecasts to respect the ECMWF-GCM. So it could drive an operational alert system in order to limit the risks associated with heavy precipitation events.

  20. Extreme weather and experience influence reproduction in an endangered bird

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichert, Brian E.; Cattau, Christopher E.; Fletcher, Robert J.; Kendall, William L.; Kitchens, Wiley M.

    2012-01-01

    Extreme weather events, such as droughts and heat waves, are expected to become more severe and more frequent in the coming years, and understanding their impacts on demographic rates is of increasing interest to both evolutionary ecologists and conservation practitioners. An individual's breeding probability can be a sensitive indicator of the decision to initiate reproductive behavior under varying environmental conditions, has strong fitness consequences, and can be considered the first step in a life history trade-off between allocating resources for breeding activities or self-survival.

  1. Impacts of extreme weather events on transport infrastructure in Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frauenfelder, Regula; Solheim, Anders; Isaksen, Ketil; Romstad, Bård; Dyrrdal, Anita V.; Ekseth, Kristine H. H.; Gangstø Skaland, Reidun; Harbitz, Alf; Harbitz, Carl B.; Haugen, Jan E.; Hygen, Hans O.; Haakenstad, Hilde; Jaedicke, Christian; Jónsson, Árni; Klæboe, Ronny; Ludvigsen, Johanna; Meyer, Nele K.; Rauken, Trude; Sverdrup-Thygeson, Kjetil

    2016-04-01

    With the latest results on expected future increase in air temperature and precipitation changes reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the climate robustness of important infrastructure is of raising concern in Norway, as well as in the rest of Europe. Economic consequences of natural disasters have increased considerably since 1950. In addition to the effect of demographic changes such as population growth, urbanization and more and more concentration of valuable assets, this increase is also related to an augmenting frequency of extreme events, such as storms, flooding, drought, and landslides. This change is also observable in Norway, where the increased frequency of strong precipitation has led to frequent flooding and landslide events during the last 20 years. A number of studies show that climate change causes an increase in both frequency and intensity of several types of extreme weather, especially when it comes to precipitation. Such extreme weather events greatly affect the transport infrastructure, with numerous and long closures of roads and railroads, in addition to damage and repair costs. Frequent closures of railroad and roads lead to delay or failure in delivery of goods, which again may lead to a loss of customers and/or - eventually - markets. Much of the Norwegian transport infrastructure is more than 50 years old and therefore not adequately dimensioned, even for present climatic conditions. In order to assess these problems and challenges posed to the Norwegian transport infrastructure from present-day and future extreme weather events, the project "Impacts of extreme weather events on infrastructure in Norway (InfraRisk)" was performed under the research Council of Norway program 'NORKLIMA', between 2009 and 2013. The main results of the project are: - Moderate to strong precipitation events have become more frequent and more intense in Norway over the last 50 years, and this trend continues throughout the 21st

  2. Extreme weather and experience influence reproduction in an endangered bird.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichert, Brian E; Cattau, Christopher E; Fletcher, Robert J; Kendall, William L; Kitchens, Wiley M

    2012-12-01

    Extreme weather events, such as droughts and heat waves, are expected to become more severe and more frequent in the coming years, and understanding their impacts on demographic rates is of increasing interest to both evolutionary ecologists and conservation practitioners. An individual's breeding probability can be a sensitive indicator of the decision to initiate reproductive behavior under varying environmental conditions, has strong fitness consequences, and can be considered the first step in a life history trade-off between allocating resources for breeding activities or self-survival. Using a 14-year time series spanning large variation in climatic conditions and the entirety of a population's breeding range, we estimated the effects of extreme weather conditions (drought) on the state-specific probabilities of breeding and survival of an endangered bird, the Florida Snail Kite (Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus). Our analysis accounted for uncertainty in breeding status assignment, a common source of uncertainty that is often ignored when states are based on field observations. Breeding probabilities in adult kites (> 1 year of age) decreased during droughts, whereas the probability of breeding in young kites (1 year of age) tended to increase. Individuals attempting to breed showed no evidence of reduced future survival. Although population viability analyses of this species and other species often implicitly assume that all adults will attempt to breed, we find that breeding probabilities were significantly reproductive effort may be constrained by an individual's quality and/or despotic behavior among individuals attempting to breed.

  3. Processes Prior and during the Early 18th Century Irish Famines—Weather Extremes and Migration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven Engler

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper advances the current debates on famine and famine history, with a focus on the first half of the 18th century in Ireland. Ireland was often hit by severe famines and two of them, specifically the famines of 1728–1729 and 1740–1741, are at the center of this article. The analysis of those famines will show the relevance of weather extremes as one driver in the functional chain of famines. Analyzing the linkage between weather extremes and social, political and economic vulnerabilities of the society further enhances the debate on past famines. Additionally, this paper focuses on the migration flows in the context of both Irish famines. These migration flows lay the foundation for the migration patterns during the “Great Irish Famine” of 1845–1852.

  4. Extreme weather and climate events with ecological relevance: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ummenhofer, Caroline C; Meehl, Gerald A

    2017-06-19

    Robust evidence exists that certain extreme weather and climate events, especially daily temperature and precipitation extremes, have changed in regard to intensity and frequency over recent decades. These changes have been linked to human-induced climate change, while the degree to which climate change impacts an individual extreme climate event (ECE) is more difficult to quantify. Rapid progress in event attribution has recently been made through improved understanding of observed and simulated climate variability, methods for event attribution and advances in numerical modelling. Attribution for extreme temperature events is stronger compared with other event types, notably those related to the hydrological cycle. Recent advances in the understanding of ECEs, both in observations and their representation in state-of-the-art climate models, open new opportunities for assessing their effect on human and natural systems. Improved spatial resolution in global climate models and advances in statistical and dynamical downscaling now provide climatic information at appropriate spatial and temporal scales. Together with the continued development of Earth System Models that simulate biogeochemical cycles and interactions with the biosphere at increasing complexity, these make it possible to develop a mechanistic understanding of how ECEs affect biological processes, ecosystem functioning and adaptation capabilities. Limitations in the observational network, both for physical climate system parameters and even more so for long-term ecological monitoring, have hampered progress in understanding bio-physical interactions across a range of scales. New opportunities for assessing how ECEs modulate ecosystem structure and functioning arise from better scientific understanding of ECEs coupled with technological advances in observing systems and instrumentation.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events

  5. Extreme Rivers for Future Climates - Simulation Using Spatial Weather Generator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuchar, Leszek; Kosierb, Ryszard; Iwański, Sławomir; Jelonek, Leszek

    2014-05-01

    In this paper an application of spatial weather generator for estimation of probability distributions changes of river flows for selected climate change scenarios and different time horizons are presented. The main studies for the Kaczawa river basin located in Southwest region of Poland are carried out. For the estimation of probability distribution river flow, daily data of SR solar radiation, maximum and minimum air temperature, and total precipitation were obtained for sixteen stations of hydrological network from Institute of Meteorology and Water Management. In addition, daily data of flows from 6 closing water-gauges (partial catchments) were collected. Idea of flow simulation in the Kaczawa river catchment for future climate conditions given by different scenario shall be presented in the paper. First, on the basis of 25-years data series (1981-2005) for 16 stations of meteorological network within or around the Kaczawa river catchment basic climatology characteristics required by weather generator are computed. Then, spatial correlations between variables and stations are added to the characteristics. Next, on the basis of information coming from three climate change scenarios (GISS, GFDL and CCCM) for years 2040, 2060 and 2080 basic climatology characteristics are modified. Then, spatial weather generator SWGEN is used to produce 500 years of synthetic data for 16 stations, given time horizon and scenario. The year 2000 as the background of potential changes in river flow is used together with 500 years of synthetic data. Next, generated data are applied to hydrological model Mike SHE to simulate daily flows for closing water-gauges. The flow are evaluated with different temporal step and characterized by pdf functions. The application of spatial weather generator SWGEN combined with hydrological rainfall-runoff model (Mike SHE Ed. 2008) and climate change scenario, gives various possibilities to study changes in the river catchment coming up to 60

  6. Observational Simulation of Icing in Extreme Weather Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gultepe, Ismail; Heymsfield, Andrew; Agelin-Chaab, Martin; Komar, John; Elfstrom, Garry; Baumgardner, Darrel

    2017-04-01

    Observations and prediction of icing in extreme weather conditions are important for aviation, transportation, and shipping applications, and icing adversely affects the economy. Icing environments can be studied either in the outdoor atmosphere or in the laboratory. There have been several aircraft based in-situ studies related to weather conditions affecting aviation operations, transportation, and marine shipping that includes icing, wind, and turbulence. However, studying severe weather conditions from aircraft observations are limited due to safety and sampling issues, instrumental uncertainties, and even the possibility of aircraft producing its own physical and dynamical effects. Remote sensing based techniques (e.g. retrieval techniques) for studying severe weather conditions represent usually a volume that cannot characterize the important scales and also represents indirect observations. Therefore, laboratory simulations of atmospheric processes can help us better understand the interactions among microphysical and dynamical processes. The Climatic Wind Tunnel (CWT) in ACE at the University of Ontario Institute of Technology (UOIT) has a large semi-open jet test chamber with flow area 7-13 m2 that can precisely control temperatures down to -40°C, and up to 250 km hr-1 wind speeds, for heavy or dry snow conditions with low visibility, similar to ones observed in the Arctic and cold climate regions, or at high altitude aeronautical conditions. In this study, the ACE CWT employed a spray nozzle array suspended in its settling chamber and fed by pressurized water, creating various particle sizes from a few microns up to mm size range. This array, together with cold temperature and high wind speed, enabled simulation of severe weather conditions, including icing, visibility, strong wind and turbulence, ice fog and frost, freezing fog, heavy snow and blizzard conditions. In this study, the test results will be summarized, and their application to aircraft

  7. Examining Projected Changes in Weather & Air Quality Extremes Between 2000 & 2030 using Dynamical Downscaling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change may alter regional weather extremes resulting in a range of environmental impacts including changes in air quality, water quality and availability, energy demands, agriculture, and ecology. Dynamical downscaling simulations were conducted with the Weather Research...

  8. Quasiresonant amplification of planetary waves and recent Northern Hemisphere weather extremes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petoukhov, Vladimir; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Petri, Stefan; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

    2013-04-01

    In recent years, the Northern Hemisphere has suffered several devastating regional summer weather extremes, such as the European heat wave in 2003, the Russian heat wave and the Indus river flood in Pakistan in 2010, and the heat wave in the United States in 2011. Here, we propose a common mechanism for the generation of persistent longitudinal planetary-scale high-amplitude patterns of the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. Those patterns--with zonal wave numbers m = 6, 7, or 8--are characteristic of the above extremes. We show that these patterns might result from trapping within midlatitude waveguides of free synoptic waves with zonal wave numbers k ≈ m. Usually, the quasistationary dynamical response with the above wave numbers m to climatological mean thermal and orographic forcing is weak. Such midlatitude waveguides, however, may favor a strong magnification of that response through quasiresonance.

  9. The Extreme Climate Index: a novel and multi-hazard index for extreme weather events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucchi, Marco; Petitta, Marcello; Calmanti, Sandro

    2017-04-01

    In this presentation we introduce the Extreme Climate Index (ECI): an objective, multi-hazard index capable of tracking changes in the frequency or magnitude of extreme weather events in African countries, thus indicating that a shift to a new climate regime is underway in a particular area. This index has been developed in the context of XCF (eXtreme Climate Facilities) project lead by ARC (African Risk Capacity, specialised agency of the African Union), and will be used in the payouts triggering mechanism of an insurance programme against risks related to the increase of frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events due to climate regimes' changes. The main hazards covered by ECI will be extreme dry, wet and heat events, with the possibility of adding region-specific risk events such as tropical cyclones for the most vulnerable areas. It will be based on data coming from consistent, sufficiently long, high quality historical records and will be standardized across broad geographical regions, so that extreme events occurring under different climatic regimes in Africa can be comparable. The first step to construct such an index is to define single hazard indicators. In this first study we focused on extreme dry/wet and heat events, using for their description respectively the well-known SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) and an index developed by us, called SHI (Standardized Heat-waves Index). The second step consists in the development of a computational strategy to combine these, and possibly other indices, so that the ECI can describe, by means of a single indicator, different types of climatic extremes. According to the methodology proposed in this paper, the ECI is defined by two statistical components: the ECI intensity, which indicates whether an event is extreme or not; the angular component, which represent the contribution of each hazard to the overall intensity of the index. The ECI can thus be used to identify "extremes" after defining a

  10. Extreme weather events in Iran under a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alizadeh-Choobari, Omid; Najafi, M. S.

    2017-03-01

    Observations unequivocally show that Iran has been rapidly warming over recent decades, which in sequence has triggered a wide range of climatic impacts. Meteorological records of several ground stations across Iran with daily temporal resolution for the period 1951-2013 were analyzed to investigate the climate change and its impact on some weather extremes. Iran has warmed by nearly 1.3° C during the period 1951-2013 (+0.2° per decade), with an increase of the minimum temperature at a rate two times that of the maximum. Consequently, an increase in the frequency of heat extremes and a decrease in the frequency of cold extremes have been observed. The annual precipitation has decreased by 8 mm per decade, causing an expansion of Iran's dry zones. Previous studies have pointed out that warming is generally associated with more frequent heavy precipitation because a warmer air can hold more moisture. Nevertheless, warming in Iran has been associated with more frequent light precipitation, but less frequent moderate, heavy and extremely heavy precipitation. This is because in the subtropical dry zones, a longer time is required to recharge the atmosphere with water vapour in a warmer climate, causing more water vapour to be transported from the subtropics to high latitudes before precipitations forms. In addition, the altitude of the condensation level increases in a warmer climate in subtropical regions, causing an overall decrease of precipitation. We argue that changing in the frequency of heavy precipitation in response to warming varies depending on the geographical location. Warming over the dry subtropical regions is associated with a decrease in the frequency of heavy precipitation, while an increase is expected over both subpolar and tropical regions. The warmer climate has also led to the increase in the frequency of both thunderstorms (driven by convective heating) and dust events over Iran.

  11. Triticale in the years with extreme weather conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nožinić Miloš

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Unlike other grain crops, the area under triticale in the Republic of Srpska has been expanding every year. Since the introduction of this plant species in the broad production began a few years ago, the finding of the optimal variety agrotechnique in different environmental conditions has great importance. This paper deals with the results of the trials from seven locations in two very extreme vegetation seasons (2002/03, 2006/07. High yield of triticale on the location Banja Luka (150 m alt. with five triticale varieties in four sowing rates in the replication trial in very unfavorable weather conditions in 2003, points to emphasized triticale tolerance to high temperatures and drought. High grain yield of triticale in the trials on the locations Banja Luka, Butmir (460 m alt. and Živince (230 m alt. was obtained in 2007 too, when all vegetation months had higher mean temperature than long term average, what is a unique appearance in the entire 'meteorological history'. In the paper the appearance of the earliest triticale heading is described and explained. It happened at one production trial on Manjača (250 m alt. in the first decade of March in 2007. On the another location on Manjača (450 m alt., in the macrotrial, rye showed much higher tolerance to extreme soil acidity, than triticale. Obtained results and unusual appearances on triticale are helpful for the further research of the stability and adaptability of more important triticale traits. .

  12. Large Scale Meteorological Pattern of Extreme Rainfall in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuswanto, Heri; Grotjahn, Richard; Rachmi, Arinda; Suhermi, Novri; Oktania, Erma; Wijaya, Yosep

    2014-05-01

    Extreme Weather Events (EWEs) cause negative impacts socially, economically, and environmentally. Considering these facts, forecasting EWEs is crucial work. Indonesia has been identified as being among the countries most vulnerable to the risk of natural disasters, such as floods, heat waves, and droughts. Current forecasting of extreme events in Indonesia is carried out by interpreting synoptic maps for several fields without taking into account the link between the observed events in the 'target' area with remote conditions. This situation may cause misidentification of the event leading to an inaccurate prediction. Grotjahn and Faure (2008) compute composite maps from extreme events (including heat waves and intense rainfall) to help forecasters identify such events in model output. The composite maps show large scale meteorological patterns (LSMP) that occurred during historical EWEs. Some vital information about the EWEs can be acquired from studying such maps, in addition to providing forecaster guidance. Such maps have robust mid-latitude meteorological patterns (for Sacramento and California Central Valley, USA EWEs). We study the performance of the composite approach for tropical weather condition such as Indonesia. Initially, the composite maps are developed to identify and forecast the extreme weather events in Indramayu district- West Java, the main producer of rice in Indonesia and contributes to about 60% of the national total rice production. Studying extreme weather events happening in Indramayu is important since EWEs there affect national agricultural and fisheries activities. During a recent EWE more than a thousand houses in Indramayu suffered from serious flooding with each home more than one meter underwater. The flood also destroyed a thousand hectares of rice plantings in 5 regencies. Identifying the dates of extreme events is one of the most important steps and has to be carried out carefully. An approach has been applied to identify the

  13. Evaluating infrastructure resilience to extreme weather – the case of the Dutch electricity transmission network

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bollinger, L.A.; Dijkema, G.P.J.

    2016-01-01

    This paper reports the development and results of a model exploring the resilience of the Dutch electricity transmission infrastructure to extreme weather events. Climate change is anticipated to result in an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events over the coming decades.

  14. Evaluating infrastructure resilience to extreme weather - the case of the Dutch electricity transmission network

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bollinger, L. Andrew; Dijkema, Gerard P. J.

    2016-01-01

    This paper reports the development and results of a model exploring the resilience of the Dutch electricity transmission infrastructure to extreme weather events. Climate change is anticipated to result in an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events over the coming decades.

  15. Taking Extreme Space Weather to the Milky Way

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesnell, W. Dean

    2014-06-01

    Extreme Space Weather events are large solar flares or geomagnetic storms, which can cause economic damage that cost billions of dollars to recover from. We have few examples of such events; only the Carrington Event (the solar superstorm) has superlatives in three categories: size of solar flare, drop in Dst, and amplitude of aa. Kepler observations show that stars similar to the Sun can have flares releasing thousands of times more energy than an X-class flare. These flares would strongly affect the atmosphere surrounding a planet orbiting such a star. Particle and magnetic field outflows from these stars could also be present. We are investigating the level of solar activity that is necessary to strongly affect the atmosphere of terrestrial planets. We assume that a habitable planet requires an atmosphere with a temperature and composition that is stable in time. Can we then extrapolate results from our solar system to determine a space of stellar parameters in which habitable planets can exist?

  16. Extreme precipitation patterns reduced terrestrial ecosystem production across biomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Y.; Moran, S. M.; Nearing, M.; Ponce Campos, G. E.; Huete, A. R.; Buda, A. R.; Bosch, D. D.; Gunter, S. A.; Kitchen, S. G.; McNab, W.; Morgan, J. A.; McClaran, M. P.; Montoya, D. S.; Peters, D. P.; Starks, P. J.

    2012-12-01

    Precipitation regimes are predicted to shift to more extreme patterns that are characterized by more intense rainfall events and longer dry intervals, yet their ecological impacts on vegetation production remain uncertain across biomes in natural climatic conditions. This in situ study investigated the effects of novel climatic conditions on aboveground net primary production (ANPP) by combining a greenness index from satellite measurements and climatic records during 2000 to 2009 from 11 long-term experimental sites in multiple biomes and climates. Results showed that extreme precipitation patterns decreased the sensitivity of ANPP to total annual precipitation (PT), at the regional and decadal scales, leading to a mean 20% decrease in rain-use efficiency across biomes. Relative decreases in ANPP were greatest for arid grassland (16%) and Mediterranean forest (20%), and less for mesic grassland and temperate forest (3%). The co-occurrence of more heavy rainfall events and longer dry intervals caused greater water stress that resulted in reduced vegetation production. A new generalized model was developed to improve predictions of the ANPP response to changes in extreme precipitation patterns by using a function of both PT and an index of precipitation extremes. These findings suggest that extreme precipitation patterns have more substantial and complex effects on vegetation production across biomes, and are as important as total annual precipitation in understanding vegetation processes. With predictions of more extreme weather events, forecasts of ecosystem production should consider these non-linear responses to altered precipitation patterns associated with climate change. Figure. Relation of production across precipitation gradients for 11 sites for two groups (Low: R95p% definitions. The relations were significantly different for the two groups (F2, 106 = 18.51, P < 0.0001).

  17. Evidence linking rapid Arctic warming to mid-latitude weather patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francis, Jennifer; Skific, Natasa

    2015-07-13

    The effects of rapid Arctic warming and ice loss on weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere is a topic of active research, lively scientific debate and high societal impact. The emergence of Arctic amplification--the enhanced sensitivity of high-latitude temperature to global warming--in only the last 10-20 years presents a challenge to identifying statistically robust atmospheric responses using observations. Several recent studies have proposed and demonstrated new mechanisms by which the changing Arctic may be affecting weather patterns in mid-latitudes, and these linkages differ fundamentally from tropics/jet-stream interactions through the transfer of wave energy. In this study, new metrics and evidence are presented that suggest disproportionate Arctic warming-and resulting weakening of the poleward temperature gradient-is causing the Northern Hemisphere circulation to assume a more meridional character (i.e. wavier), although not uniformly in space or by season, and that highly amplified jet-stream patterns are occurring more frequently. Further analysis based on self-organizing maps supports this finding. These changes in circulation are expected to lead to persistent weather patterns that are known to cause extreme weather events. As emissions of greenhouse gases continue unabated, therefore, the continued amplification of Arctic warming should favour an increased occurrence of extreme events caused by prolonged weather conditions.

  18. Amplified mid-latitude planetary waves favour particular regional weather extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Screen, James A.; Simmonds, Ian

    2014-08-01

    There has been an ostensibly large number of extreme weather events in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes during the past decade. An open question that is critically important for scientists and policy makers is whether any such increase in weather extremes is natural or anthropogenic in origin. One mechanism proposed to explain the increased frequency of extreme weather events is the amplification of mid-latitude atmospheric planetary waves. Disproportionately large warming in the northern polar regions compared with mid-latitudes--and associated weakening of the north-south temperature gradient--may favour larger amplitude planetary waves, although observational evidence for this remains inconclusive. A better understanding of the role of planetary waves in causing mid-latitude weather extremes is essential for assessing the potential environmental and socio-economic impacts of future planetary wave changes. Here we show that months of extreme weather over mid-latitudes are commonly accompanied by significantly amplified quasi-stationary mid-tropospheric planetary waves. Conversely, months of near-average weather over mid-latitudes are often accompanied by significantly attenuated waves. Depending on geographical region, certain types of extreme weather (for example, hot, cold, wet, dry) are more strongly related to wave amplitude changes than others. The findings suggest that amplification of quasi-stationary waves preferentially increases the probabilities of heat waves in western North America and central Asia, cold outbreaks in eastern North America, droughts in central North America, Europe and central Asia, and wet spells in western Asia.

  19. Extreme weather-related health needs of people who are homeless.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cusack, Lynette; van Loon, Antonia; Kralik, Debbie; Arbon, Paul; Gilbert, Sandy

    2013-01-01

    To identify the extreme weather-related health needs of homeless people and the response by homeless service providers in Adelaide, South Australia, a five-phased qualitative interpretive study was undertaken. (1) Literature review, followed by semi-structured interviews with 25 homeless people to ascertain health needs during extreme weather events. (2) Identification of homeless services. (3) Semi-structured interviews with 16 homeless service providers regarding their response to the health needs of homeless people at times of extreme weather. (4) Gap analysis. (5) Suggestions for policy and planning. People experiencing homelessness describe adverse health impacts more from extreme cold, than extreme hot weather. They considered their health suffered more, because of wet bedding, clothes and shoes. They felt more depressed and less able to keep themselves well during cold, wet winters. However, homeless service providers were more focussed on planning for extra service responses during times of extreme heat rather than extreme cold. Even though a city may be considered to have a temperate climate with a history of very hot summers, primary homeless populations have health needs during winter months. The experiences and needs of homeless people should be considered in extreme weather policy and when planning responses.

  20. Quantifying the impact of weather extremes on global food security: A spatial bio-economic approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sika Gbegbelegbe

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This study uses a spatial bio-economic modelling framework to estimate the impact of the 2012 weather extreme in the USA on food security in the developing world. The study also quantifies the potential effects of a similar weather extreme occurring in 2050 under climate change. The study results indicate that weather extremes that affect maize productivity in key grain baskets can negatively affect food security in vulnerable countries. The 2012 weather extreme which occurred in the USA reduced US and global maize production by 29% compared to trend; maize consumption in the country decreased by 5% only and this resulted in less surplus maize for exports from the largest maize exporter in the world. Global maize production decreased by 6% compared to trend. The decrease in global maize production coupled with a reduction in the volume of global maize exports worsened food insecurity in eastern Africa, the Caribbean and Central America and India. The effects of the weather extreme on global food security would be worse, if the latter were to occur under climate change in 2050, assuming no climate change adaptation worldwide over the years. In addition, the hardest-hit regions would remain the same, whether the weather extreme occurs in 2012 instead of 2050: Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA, South Asia and the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC region. However, sustained growth in per capita income across world economies between 2000 and 2050 would allow few countries in SSA and the LAC region to virtually eliminate hunger within their borders. In these countries, per capita income would be high enough by 2050 to completely offset the negative effect of the weather extreme. The study results are also consistent with USDA׳s estimates on US and global maize production and consumption in 2012 after the weather extreme. Some discrepancy is found on the volume of global maize trade; this implies that the bio-economic model likely overestimates the effect of the

  1. Extremely compliant and highly stretchable patterned graphene

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhu, Shuze; Huang, Yinjun; Li, Teng, E-mail: LiT@umd.edu [Department of Mechanical Engineering and Maryland NanoCenter, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland 20742 (United States)

    2014-04-28

    Graphene is intrinsically ultra-stiff in its plane. Its huge mechanical mismatch when interfacing with ultra-compliant biological tissues and elastomers (7–9 orders of magnitude difference in stiffness) poses significant challenge in its application to functional devices such as epidermal electronics and sensing prosthesis. We offer a feasible and promising solution to this significant challenge by suitably patterning graphene into a nanomesh. Through systematic coarse-grained simulations, we show that graphene nanomesh can be made extremely compliant with nearly zero stiffness up to about 20% elongation and then remain highly compliant up to about 50% elongation.

  2. Aurorasaurus: Citizen Scientists Experiencing Extremes of Space Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacDonald, E.; Hall, M.; Tapia, A.

    2013-12-01

    Aurorasaurus is a new citizen science mapping platform to nowcast the visibility of the Northern Lights for the public in the current solar maximum, the first with social media. As a recently funded NSF INSPIRE program, we have joint goals among three research disciplines: space weather forecasting, the study of human-computer interactions, and informal science education. We will highlight results from the prototype www.aurorasaurus.org and outline future efforts to motivate online participants and crowdsource viable data. Our citizen science effort is unique among space programs as it includes both reporting observations and data analysis activities to engage the broadest participant network possible. In addition, our efforts to improve space weather nowcasting by including real-time mapping of ground truth observers for rare, sporadic events are a first in the field.

  3. Soil biotic legacy effects of extreme weather events influence plant invasiveness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meisner, A.; De Deyn, G.B.; De Boer, W.; Van der Putten, W.H.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is expected to increase future abiotic stresses on ecosystems through extreme weather events leading to more extreme drought and rainfall incidences [Jentsch A, et al. (2007) Front Ecol Environ 5(7):365–374]. These fluctuations in precipitation may affect soil biota, soil processes [E

  4. Adaptation to extreme weather: identifying different societal perspectives in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vasileiadou, E.; Hisschemoller, M.; Petersen, A.C.; Hazeleger, W.; Betgen, C.; Hoog, de I.; Min, E.

    2014-01-01

    The intensity and occurrence of extreme weather events are expected to change with climate change. This change necessitates adaptive responses to extreme events, which need to take into account different societal perspectives, in order to be robust. In this paper, we explore the perspectives of diff

  5. Communicating adaptation with emotions: the role of intense experiences in raising concern about extreme weather.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleftheria Vasileiadou

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Adaptation to extreme weather is often considered as having a low urgency and being a low priority governance option, even though the intensity of extreme weather events is expected to increase as a result of climate change. An important issue is how to raise an adequate level of concern among individuals, policy makers, and broader decision makers in companies and organizations so that adaptation to extreme events becomes mainstream practice. We conducted 40 indepth interviews with individuals from different sectors in The Netherlands to identify the different types of experiences with extreme events, as well as the relationship between such experiences and the level of concern about extreme weather. Our results indicate that individuals who have experienced an intense, life-threatening event have a significantly higher level of concern than those without such an experience. Professional experience and secondhand experience through participating in information events do not significantly affect the level of concern about extreme events. This suggests limited intervention possibilities for communication of adaptation, as well as for raising support for adaptation measures. Framing adaptation measures in relation to personal circumstances and emotions during extreme events could help raise concern about extreme weather events, as well as societal support for adaptation measures.

  6. Economic Growth in the Face of Weather and Climate Extremes: A Call for Better Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pendleton, Linwood; Karl, Thomas R.; Mills, Evan

    2013-06-01

    The U.S. economy has grown to be the world's largest, even in the face of the most varied and costly weather and climate extremes on the planet (see http://www.munichreamerica.com/webinars/2013_01_natcatreview/MunichRe_III_NatCat01032013.pdf). Nevertheless, these extremes continue to take a toll on the nation, diverting public and private funds while limiting economic growth and jobs and threatening the well-being of Americans. Extreme weather events affect every state and manifest differently by region (see Figure 1 in Supporting Information in the online version of this Forum and http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/summary-stats).

  7. Extreme weather events and related disasters in the Philippines, 2004-08: a sign of what climate change will mean?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yumul, Graciano P; Cruz, Nathaniel A; Servando, Nathaniel T; Dimalanta, Carla B

    2011-04-01

    Being an archipelagic nation, the Philippines is susceptible and vulnerable to the ill-effects of weather-related hazards. Extreme weather events, which include tropical cyclones, monsoon rains and dry spells, have triggered hazards (such as floods and landslides) that have turned into disasters. Financial resources that were meant for development and social services have had to be diverted in response, addressing the destruction caused by calamities that beset different regions of the country. Changing climatic patterns and weather-related occurrences over the past five years (2004-08) may serve as an indicator of what climate change will mean for the country. Early recognition of this possibility and the implementation of appropriate action and measures, through disaster risk management, are important if loss of life and property is to be minimised, if not totally eradicated. This is a matter of urgent concern given the geographical location and geological characteristics of the Philippines.

  8. An end-to-end assessment of extreme weather impacts on food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chavez, Erik; Conway, Gordon; Ghil, Michael; Sadler, Marc

    2015-11-01

    Both governments and the private sector urgently require better estimates of the likely incidence of extreme weather events, their impacts on food crop production and the potential consequent social and economic losses. Current assessments of climate change impacts on agriculture mostly focus on average crop yield vulnerability to climate and adaptation scenarios. Also, although new-generation climate models have improved and there has been an exponential increase in available data, the uncertainties in their projections over years and decades, and at regional and local scale, have not decreased. We need to understand and quantify the non-stationary, annual and decadal climate impacts using simple and communicable risk metrics that will help public and private stakeholders manage the hazards to food security. Here we present an `end-to-end’ methodological construct based on weather indices and machine learning that integrates current understanding of the various interacting systems of climate, crops and the economy to determine short- to long-term risk estimates of crop production loss, in different climate and adaptation scenarios. For provinces north and south of the Yangtze River in China, we have found that risk profiles for crop yields that translate climate into economic variability follow marked regional patterns, shaped by drivers of continental-scale climate. We conclude that to be cost-effective, region-specific policies have to be tailored to optimally combine different categories of risk management instruments.

  9. Effects of extreme weather on reproductive success in a temperate-breeding songbird.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pipoly, Ivett; Bókony, Veronika; Seress, Gábor; Szabó, Krisztián; Liker, András

    2013-01-01

    The frequency of extreme meteorological events such as heat waves and rainstorms is predicted to increase with climate change. However, there is still little information about how extreme weather influences reproduction in animals. It may not only affect breeding success but might also alter offspring sex ratio if males and females are differentially sensitive to meteorological conditions during development. We investigated the relationship between meteorological conditions and reproductive success over 6 years in a house sparrow population in central Europe. We found that hatching success increased with the number of extremely hot days (daily maximum >31°C) and decreased with the number of extremely cold days (success was unrelated to weather variables. However, the frequency of extremely hot days had a negative effect on fledglings' body mass and tarsus length, although both of these traits were positively related to average temperature. Additionally, fledglings' body mass increased with the length of period without rainfall before fledging. Male to female ratio among fledglings did not differ from 1:1 and did not vary with weather variables. The magnitude of the effects of extreme meteorological events was usually small, although in some cases comparable to those of ecologically relevant predictors of reproductive success. Our results indicate that meteorological conditions have complex effects on breeding success, as the effects of extreme weather can differ between different aspects of reproduction and also from the effects of overall meteorological conditions.

  10. Extreme weather events: Should drinking water quality management systems adapt to changing risk profiles?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Stuart J; Deere, Daniel; Leusch, Frederic D L; Humpage, Andrew; Jenkins, Madeleine; Cunliffe, David

    2015-11-15

    Among the most widely predicted and accepted consequences of global climate change are increases in both the frequency and severity of a variety of extreme weather events. Such weather events include heavy rainfall and floods, cyclones, droughts, heatwaves, extreme cold, and wildfires, each of which can potentially impact drinking water quality by affecting water catchments, storage reservoirs, the performance of water treatment processes or the integrity of distribution systems. Drinking water guidelines, such as the Australian Drinking Water Guidelines and the World Health Organization Guidelines for Drinking-water Quality, provide guidance for the safe management of drinking water. These documents present principles and strategies for managing risks that may be posed to drinking water quality. While these principles and strategies are applicable to all types of water quality risks, very little specific attention has been paid to the management of extreme weather events. We present a review of recent literature on water quality impacts of extreme weather events and consider practical opportunities for improved guidance for water managers. We conclude that there is a case for an enhanced focus on the management of water quality impacts from extreme weather events in future revisions of water quality guidance documents.

  11. WEATHER AND CLIMATE EXTREMES IN LIGHT OF THE IPCC SREX (2011 AND BEYOND

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JÁNOS MIKA

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Weather and climate extremes in light of the IPCC SREX (2011 and beyond. The recent IPCC Special Report (IPCC SREX, 2011 provides a comprehensive overview of meteorological (i.e. weather and climate extremes and their various aspects. The present paper reflects the core concepts of the Report, clarifying the relations of the natural and anthropogenic factors causing meteorological extremes, as well, as condition determining the risks and general ways of response by the society. The paper can only add some recent statistics to this scheme on various aspects of meteorological and non-meteorological reasons of natural disasters. The paper argues, however, the still unclear definition of the extremes and their classification as weather and climate extremes. We also dedicate a sub-Section to the statistical and physical considerations on how the extremes may change parallel to the global warming. Another sub-Section refers to further difficulties that hamper the empirical establishment of the trends in the meteorological extremes. Finally we overview the IPCC AR4 (2007 conclusions on some meteorological extremes, since the detailed Chapters of the IPCC SREX (2011 Report were not available by the time of writing the paper, but from its SPM no difference in the statements and even its uncertainties can be established since the AR4.

  12. Adapting rail and road networks to weather extremes: case studies for southern Germany and Austria

    OpenAIRE

    Doll, Claus; Trinks, Christian; Sedlacek, Norbert; Pelikan, Verena; Comes, Tina; Schultmann, Frank

    2013-01-01

    The assessment of the current impacts of extreme weather conditions on transport systems reveals high costs in specific locations. Prominent examples for Europe are the economic consequences of the harsh winter periods 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 and the floods in Austria, Eastern Europe, Germany and the United Kingdom in 2005 and 2007. Departing from the EC-funded project WEATHER, this paper delves into the subject of adaptation strategies by revisiting the project’s general findings on adaptati...

  13. Local finite-amplitude wave activity as an objective diagnostic of midlatitude extreme weather

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Gang; Lu, Jian; Burrows, Alex D.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2015-12-28

    Midlatitude extreme weather events are responsible for a large part of climate related damage, yet our understanding of these extreme events is limited, partly due to the lack of a theoretical basis for midlatitude extreme weather. In this letter, the local finite-amplitude wave activity (LWA) of Huang and Nakamura [2015] is introduced as a diagnostic of the 500-hPa geopotential height (Z500) to characterizing midlatitude weather events. It is found that the LWA climatology and its variability associated with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) agree broadly with the previously reported blocking frequency in literature. There is a strong seasonal and spatial dependence in the trend13 s of LWA in recent decades. While there is no observational evidence for a hemispheric-scale increase in wave amplitude, robust trends in wave activity can be identified at the regional scales, with important implications for regional climate change.

  14. Linking Quasi- Resonant Amplification of Planetary Waves to Weather Extremes in Northern and Southern Hemisphere.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kornhuber, K.; Coumou, D.; Petoukhov, V.; Petri, S.; Karoly, D. J.; Rahmstorf, S.

    2015-12-01

    Several recent Northern Hemisphere (NH) summer heat extremes have been linked to persistent high-amplitude planetary wave patterns (e.g. heat waves in Europe 2003, Russia 2010 and in the US 2011, Floods in Pakistan 2010 and Europe 2013) with large-scale circulation patterns characterized by persistent longitudinal planetary-scale high-amplitude waves of relative high wavenumber (6-8). Based on atmospheric wave dynamics, Petoukhov et al. (2013) proposed a so called quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) mechanism that, in case certain conditions in the NH circulation are fulfilled, can lead to such situations. Key requirements for the amplification of a slow moving (quasi stationary) synoptic wave of wavenumber 6 - 8 are i.) the formation of a waveguide to prevent meridional dissipation of their energy and ii.)a reasonable strong thermal and orographic forcing for the respective wavenumber. By casting these conditions into a script, we implemented an automated detection scheme to scan reanalysis data for QRA events. By employing this more objective approach, we were able to analyze duration and occurrence of QRA, investigate its role during summer extremes and put prior results to the test. In accordance with earlier studies we identify a rise of long lasting QRA events over the last decade, primarily attributed to an increase of wave 7 QRA episodes many of them coinciding with extreme weather in the mid-latitudes. During those periods a double jet flow regime is identified as the prevalent circulation pattern. Detected events include the summers of the record breaking heat extremes of 2003 and 2010. We employ these examples as case studies to explain evolution and effect of the QRA mechanism in detail. In a complementary study we adapted the detection scheme to the Southern Hemisphere (SH) to investigate if the mechanism is a general feature of mid-latitude circulation or whether specific conditions are needed which might only be fulfilled in the NH. We present

  15. Processes Prior and during the Early 18th Century Irish Famines—Weather Extremes and Migration

    OpenAIRE

    Steven Engler; Johannes P. Werner

    2015-01-01

    This paper advances the current debates on famine and famine history, with a focus on the first half of the 18th century in Ireland. Ireland was often hit by severe famines and two of them, specifically the famines of 1728–1729 and 1740–1741, are at the center of this article. The analysis of those famines will show the relevance of weather extremes as one driver in the functional chain of famines. Analyzing the linkage between weather extremes and social, political and economic vulnerabiliti...

  16. Climate change and health in Israel: adaptation policies for extreme weather events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Manfred S; Pri-Or, Noemie Groag; Capeluto, Guedi; Epstein, Yoram; Paz, Shlomit

    2013-01-01

    Climatic changes have increased the world-wide frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves, cold spells, floods, storms and droughts. These extreme events potentially affect the health status of millions of people, increasing disease and death. Since mitigation of climate change is a long and complex process, emphasis has recently been placed on the measures required for adaptation. Although the principles underlying these measures are universal, preparedness plans and policies need to be tailored to local conditions. In this paper, we conducted a review of the literature on the possible health consequences of extreme weather events in Israel, where the conditions are characteristic of the Mediterranean region. Strong evidence indicates that the frequency and duration of several types of extreme weather events are increasing in the Mediterranean Basin, including Israel. We examined the public health policy implications for adaptation to climate change in the region, and proposed public health adaptation policy options. Preparedness for the public health impact of increased extreme weather events is still relatively limited and clear public health policies are urgently needed. These include improved early warning and monitoring systems, preparedness of the health system, educational programs and the living environment. Regional collaboration should be a priority.

  17. Army Corps of Engineers: Efforts to Assess the Impact of Extreme Weather Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-07-01

    southern California dam, which allowed the Corps to retain rainwater to help respond to the state’s extreme drought conditions . The Corps has assessed...anticipate, prepare for, respond to, and adapt to changing conditions and to withstand and recover rapidly from disruptions with minimal damage. As directed... Extreme Weather Events in the Planning Process Page 16 GAO-15-660 Army Corps of Engineers adapting projects to this projected change.27

  18. Research on Trends in Extreme Weather Events and their Effects on Grapevine in Romanian Viticulture

    OpenAIRE

    Georgeta Mihaela Bucur; Anca Cristina Babes

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this work was to investigate the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in various centers from Romania’s viticultural regions: winter frost, extreme temperatures during the growing season and summer droughts. Winter frost damaging the vine is a significant risk to grape production, mainly in the plains and lowlands to the foothills. The frequency of winter frost damaging the vine has increased during the last decades, in the context of climate change. Also, there has be...

  19. Quantifying the daily economic impact of extreme space weather due to failure in electricity transmission infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oughton, Edward J.; Skelton, Andrew; Horne, Richard B.; Thomson, Alan W. P.; Gaunt, Charles T.

    2017-01-01

    Extreme space weather due to coronal mass ejections has the potential to cause considerable disruption to the global economy by damaging the transformers required to operate electricity transmission infrastructure. However, expert opinion is split between the potential outcome being one of a temporary regional blackout and of a more prolonged event. The temporary blackout scenario proposed by some is expected to last the length of the disturbance, with normal operations resuming after a couple of days. On the other hand, others have predicted widespread equipment damage with blackout scenarios lasting months. In this paper we explore the potential costs associated with failure in the electricity transmission infrastructure in the U.S. due to extreme space weather, focusing on daily economic loss. This provides insight into the direct and indirect economic consequences of how an extreme space weather event may affect domestic production, as well as other nations, via supply chain linkages. By exploring the sensitivity of the blackout zone, we show that on average the direct economic cost incurred from disruption to electricity represents only 49% of the total potential macroeconomic cost. Therefore, if indirect supply chain costs are not considered when undertaking cost-benefit analysis of space weather forecasting and mitigation investment, the total potential macroeconomic cost is not correctly represented. The paper contributes to our understanding of the economic impact of space weather, as well as making a number of key methodological contributions relevant for future work. Further economic impact assessment of this threat must consider multiday, multiregional events.

  20. An Ensemble Approach to Extreme Space Weather Event Probability -- A First Look

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonas, S.; Fronczyk, K.; McCarron, E.; Pratt, L. M.

    2015-12-01

    An extreme space weather event has the potential to disrupt or damage infrastructure systems and technologies that many societies rely on for economic and social wellbeing. Space weather events occur regularly, but extreme events occur less frequently with only several historical examples over the last 160 years. During the past decade, published works have (1) forensically examined the physical characteristics of the extreme historical events; and (2) discussed the probability or return rate of select extreme geomagnetic disturbances, including the 1859 Carrington event. Here we present an analysis of several of these studies. We created a unified statistical framework to visualize previous analyses, and developed a model from an ensemble using statistical methods. We look at geomagnetic disturbance probability across multiple return periods. We discuss what the most likely 100-year extreme event (a parameter of interest to policy makers and planners) and the return period for other extreme historical events. We discuss the current state of these analyses, their utility to policy makers and planners, the current limitations (in data and understanding) when compared to other hazards, and the gaps that need to be filled to enhance space weather risk assessments.

  1. The Relation between Extreme Weather Events and the Solar Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battinelli, P.; di Fazio, A.; Torelli, M.

    The oscillating part of the solar irradiance drives the cyclic component of the variations of the terrestrial atmosphere's thermodynamic state. In particular, the average temperature, and thus the turbulent atmospheric fuxes, are influenced. Reliable temperature data exist from ~220,000 years, while accurate solar irradiance space measurements (not affected by the atmosphere's absorption) are available only since 1979. Actually, there is a rather long data-set regarding solar activity, indicated by the Wolf number, which is found to be well correlated with the total solar flux. Thus, we use the Wolf number as a quantitative proxy of the incident flux, even in the interval before the space-based measurements. The fraction of solar energy trapped in the atmosphere due to the re-absorption of the infrared radiation by the greenhouse gases is an increasing function of time (in the latter 150-160 years). Over this interval, we spectrally analyzed the time series of both the Wolf number and the frequencies of extreme meteorological events, isolating and removing in the latter the cyclic components due to the periodic part of the radiative forcing exherted by the Sun. We were thus able to determine the time trend in the data regarding the observed frequencies of the U.S. continental tornadoes (National Center for Atmospheric Research) and of the global cyclones (hurricanes and tropical storms on all ocean basins, National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration). We find, for both the data sets an exponential behaviour, with e-folding times: for the cyclones tau ~= 110 years, and for the tornadoes tau ~= 70 years. We are happy to have given --through this work-- a contribution to the interdisciplinary scientific process coordinated by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) through the ICSU (International Council of Scientific Unions) which takes place a latere of the international negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

  2. Changes in weather extremes over East Asia due to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Min-Hee; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Kim, Jinwon; Song, Chang-Geun

    2010-05-01

    The changes in weather extremes due to the global warming induced by the emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases have received growing attention in climate research community. In this study, the authors introduce new indices that assess changes in extreme vulnerability over East Asia for the periods of past 100 years and future 100 years. Observed temperatures and precipitation at 895 meteorological stations in Korea, China, and Japan have been analyzed for 1960s-2000s. In addition, we examined data from a global climate model simulation using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model for 1900-2099. The observations show increasing trends in warm and dry extremes, and decreases in cold extremes, particularly in northern East Asia. A notable regional anomaly is the increase in wet extremes over the Korean Peninsula. The temperature extremes in the model simulations are similar to the observed features in the same region during the for the 20th and 21st century periods.

  3. Effects of extreme weather on reproductive success in a temperate-breeding songbird.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivett Pipoly

    Full Text Available The frequency of extreme meteorological events such as heat waves and rainstorms is predicted to increase with climate change. However, there is still little information about how extreme weather influences reproduction in animals. It may not only affect breeding success but might also alter offspring sex ratio if males and females are differentially sensitive to meteorological conditions during development. We investigated the relationship between meteorological conditions and reproductive success over 6 years in a house sparrow population in central Europe. We found that hatching success increased with the number of extremely hot days (daily maximum >31°C and decreased with the number of extremely cold days (<16°C during incubation, although the latter effect held only for clutches with relatively short incubation periods. Fledging success was unrelated to weather variables. However, the frequency of extremely hot days had a negative effect on fledglings' body mass and tarsus length, although both of these traits were positively related to average temperature. Additionally, fledglings' body mass increased with the length of period without rainfall before fledging. Male to female ratio among fledglings did not differ from 1:1 and did not vary with weather variables. The magnitude of the effects of extreme meteorological events was usually small, although in some cases comparable to those of ecologically relevant predictors of reproductive success. Our results indicate that meteorological conditions have complex effects on breeding success, as the effects of extreme weather can differ between different aspects of reproduction and also from the effects of overall meteorological conditions.

  4. A comparative study of European insurance schemes for extreme weather risks and incentives for risk reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Ruiter, Marleen; Hudson, Paul; de Ruig, Lars; Kuik, Onno; Botzen, Wouter

    2017-04-01

    This paper provides an analysis of the insurance schemes that cover extreme weather events in twelve different EU countries and the risk reduction incentives offered by these schemes. Economic impacts of extreme weather events in many regions in Europe and elsewhere are on the rise due to climate change and increasing exposure as driven by urban development. In an attempt to manage impacts from extreme weather events, natural disaster insurance schemes can provide incentives for taking measures that limit weather-related risks. Insurance companies can influence public risk management policies and risk-reducing behaviour of policyholders by "rewarding behaviour that reduces risks and potential damages" (Botzen and Van den Bergh, 2008, p. 417). Examples of insurance market systems that directly or indirectly aim to incentivize risk reduction with varying degrees of success are: the U.S. National Flood Insurance Programme; the French Catastrophes Naturelles system; and the U.K. Flood Re program which requires certain levels of protection standards for properties to be insurable. In our analysis, we distinguish between four different disaster types (i.e. coastal and fluvial floods, droughts and storms) and three different sectors (i.e. residential, commercial and agriculture). The selected case studies also provide a wide coverage of different insurance market structures, including public, private and public-private insurance provision, and different methods of coping with extreme loss events, such as re-insurance, governmental aid and catastrophe bonds. The analysis of existing mechanisms for risk reduction incentives provides recommendations about incentivizing adaptive behaviour, in order to assist policy makers and other stakeholders in designing more effective insurance schemes for extreme weather risks.

  5. No evidence of the effect of extreme weather events on annual occurrence of four groups of ectothermic species

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Malinowska, A.H.; Strien, van A.J.; Verboom, J.; Wallis de Vries, M.F.; Opdam, P.

    2014-01-01

    Weather extremes may have strong effects on biodiversity, as known from theoretical and modelling studies. Predicted negative effects of increased weather variation are found only for a few species, mostly plants and birds in empirical studies. Therefore, we investigated correlations between weather

  6. Extreme Space Weather Events and Charging Hazard Assessments in Lunar Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minow, Joseph I.; Parker, Linda N.; Blackwell, William C., Jr.

    2008-01-01

    The sunlit lunar surface charges to positive potentials with mean values of a few tens of volts where photoelectron currents dominate the charging process. In contrast, surfaces in darkness may charge to negative potentials on the order of a few hundred volts when the charging process is dominated by hot electron populations in the absence of solar photons. Recently, observations of electron beams measured by instruments on spacecraft in low lunar orbit have been interpreted as evidence for extreme lunar surface potentials exceeding a few kilovolts suggesting that lunar orbital and surface plasma environments may contain charging risks similar to geostationary orbit during extreme space weather conditions. Space system design for successful operation in a wide range of lunar environments will therefore require evaluation of charging hazards during extreme space weather conditions. We present results from a study of space weather environments conducted to obtained credible extreme charging environments for use in charging hazard assessments for lunar missions including extreme conditions encountered when the Moon is in the solar wind, the magnetosheath, and the Earth's magnetotail.

  7. Characterising the relationship between weather extremes in Europe and synoptic circulation features

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Pfahl

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Extreme weather events in Europe are closely linked to anomalies of the atmospheric circulation and in particular to circulation features like cyclones and atmospheric blocking. In this study, this linkage is systematically characterised with the help of conditional cyclone and blocking frequencies during precipitation, wind gust and temperature extremes at various locations in Europe. Such conditional frequency fields can serve as a dynamical fingerprint of the extreme events and yield insights into their most important physical driving mechanisms. Precipitation extremes over the ocean and over flat terrain are shown to be closely related to cyclones in the vicinity and the associated dynamical lifting. For extreme precipitation over complex terrain, cyclone anomalies are found at more remote locations, favouring the flow of moist air towards the topography. Wind gust extremes are associated with cyclone and blocking anomalies in opposite directions, with the cyclones occurring mostly over the North and Baltic Seas for extreme events in central Europe. This setting is associated with pronounced surface pressure gradients and thus high near-surface wind velocities. Hot temperature extremes in northern and central Europe typically occur in the vicinity of a blocking anticyclone, where subsidence and radiative forcing are strong. Over southern Europe, blocking anomalies are shifted more to the north or northeast, indicating a more important role of warm air advection. Large-scale flow conditions for cold extremes are similar at many locations in Europe, with blocking anomalies over the North Atlantic and northern Europe and cyclone anomalies southeast of the cold extreme, both contributing to the advection of cold air masses. This characterisation of synoptic-scale forcing mechanisms can be helpful for better understanding and anticipating weather extremes and their long-term changes.

  8. Holistic view to integrated climate change assessment and extreme weather adaptation in the Lake Victoria Basin East Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mutua, F.; Koike, T.

    2013-12-01

    Extreme weather events have been the leading cause of disasters and damage all over the world.The primary ingredient to these disasters especially floods is rainfall which over the years, despite advances in modeling, computing power and use of new data and technologies, has proven to be difficult to predict. Also, recent climate projections showed a pattern consistent with increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme events in the East African region.We propose a holistic integrated approach to climate change assessment and extreme event adaptation through coupling of analysis techniques, tools and data. The Lake Victoria Basin (LVB) in East Africa supports over three million livelihoods and is a valuable resource to five East African countries as a source of water and means of transport. However, with a Mesoscale weather regime driven by land and lake dynamics,extreme Mesoscale events have been prevalent and the region has been on the receiving end during anomalously wet years in the region. This has resulted in loss of lives, displacements, and food insecurity. In the LVB, the effects of climate change are increasingly being recognized as a significant contributor to poverty, by its linkage to agriculture, food security and water resources. Of particular importance are the likely impacts of climate change in frequency and intensity of extreme events. To tackle this aspect, this study adopted an integrated regional, mesoscale and basin scale approach to climate change assessment. We investigated the projected changes in mean climate over East Africa, diagnosed the signals of climate change in the atmosphere, and transferred this understanding to mesoscale and basin scale. Changes in rainfall were analyzed and similar to the IPCC AR4 report; the selected three General Circulation Models (GCMs) project a wetter East Africa with intermittent dry periods in June-August. Extreme events in the region are projected to increase; with the number of wet days

  9. Rainfall extremes, weather and climatic characterization over complex terrain: A data-driven approach based on signal enhancement methods and extreme value modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pineda, Luis E.; Willems, Patrick

    2017-04-01

    Weather and climatic characterization of rainfall extremes is both of scientific and societal value for hydrometeorogical risk management, yet discrimination of local and large-scale forcing remains challenging in data-scarce and complex terrain environments. Here, we present an analysis framework that separate weather (seasonal) regimes and climate (inter-annual) influences using data-driven process identification. The approach is based on signal-to-noise separation methods and extreme value (EV) modeling of multisite rainfall extremes. The EV models use a semi-automatic parameter learning [1] for model identification across temporal scales. At weather scale, the EV models are combined with a state-based hidden Markov model [2] to represent the spatio-temporal structure of rainfall as persistent weather states. At climatic scale, the EV models are used to decode the drivers leading to the shift of weather patterns. The decoding is performed into a climate-to-weather signal subspace, built via dimension reduction of climate model proxies (e.g. sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation) We apply the framework to the Western Andean Ridge (WAR) in Ecuador and Peru (0-6°S) using ground data from the second half of the 20th century. We find that the meridional component of winds is what matters for the in-year and inter-annual variability of high rainfall intensities alongside the northern WAR (0-2.5°S). There, low-level southerly winds are found as advection drivers for oceanic moist of the normal-rainy season and weak/moderate the El Niño (EN) type; but, the strong EN type and its unique moisture surplus is locally advected at lowlands in the central WAR. Moreover, the coastal ridges, south of 3°S dampen meridional airflows, leaving local hygrothermal gradients to control the in-year distribution of rainfall extremes and their anomalies. Overall, we show that the framework, which does not make any prior assumption on the explanatory power of the weather

  10. The Weather of the Future: Heat Waves, Extreme Storms, and Other Scenes from a Climate-Changed Planet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cullen, H. M.

    2010-12-01

    In The Weather of the Future, Dr. Heidi Cullen puts a vivid face on climate change, offering a new way of seeing this phenomenon not just as an event set to happen in the distant future but as something happening right now in our own backyards. Arguing that we must connect the weather of today with the climate change of tomorrow, Cullen combines the latest research from scientists on the ground with state-of-the-art climate model projections to create climate-change scenarios for seven of the most at-risk locations around the world. From the Central Valley of California, where coming droughts will jeopardize the entire state’s water supply, to Greenland, where warmer temperatures will give access to mineral wealth buried beneath ice sheets for millennia, Cullen illustrates how, if left unabated, climate change will transform every corner of the world by midcentury. What emerges is a mosaic of changing weather patterns that collectively spell out the range of risks posed by global warming—whether it’s New York City, whose infrastructure is extremely vulnerable even to a relatively weak Category 3 hurricane or to Bangladesh, a country so low-lying that millions of people could become climate refugees thanks to rising sea levels. The Weather of the Future makes climate change local, showing how no two regions of the country or the world will be affected in quite the same way and demonstrating that melting ice is just the beginning.

  11. Socio-economic hazards and impacts of space weather: the important range between mild and extreme

    CERN Document Server

    Schrijver, Carolus J

    2015-01-01

    Society needs to prepare for more severe space weather than it has experienced in the modern technological era. To enable that, we must both quantify extreme-event characteristics and analyze impacts of lesser events that are frequent yet severe enough to be informative. Exploratory studies suggest that economic impacts of a century-level space hurricane and of a century of lesser space-weather "gales" may turn out to be of the same order of magnitude. The economic benefits of effective mitigation of the impacts of space gales may substantially exceed the required investments, even as these investments provide valuable information to prepare for the worst possible storms.

  12. Analysis of farmers’ adaptation to weather extremes in West African Sudan Savanna

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Boansi

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available There have been recent incidences of weather extremes in the West African Sudan Savanna and farmers have responded through implementation of relevant adaptation strategies. For a deeper insight into farmers’ adaptation to climatic shocks, this study documents farmers’ perception of recent changes in the local climate, and identifies factors that influence the number and choice of strategies implemented. Interdependencies among strategies are explored and joint and marginal probabilities of adoption estimated. Upper East Ghana and Southwest Burkina Faso are used as the case study regions. These regions were selected due to extreme reliance of inhabitants on agriculture for sustenance, and their recent exposure to weather extremes. Through estimation of a Poisson regression and multivariate probit model to identify the major factors that influence the number and choice of strategies adopted, we discover that, limited access to credit, markets, and extension services, smaller cropland area, and low level of mechanization could impede effective adaptation to weather extremes. To enhance farmers’ adaptive capacity, policy makers and various stakeholders need to contribute towards improving farmers’ access to credit, markets, and extension services, and implement measures to promote mechanization.

  13. Extreme weather and air pollution effects on cardiovascular and respiratory hospital admissions in Cyprus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsangari, H; Paschalidou, A K; Kassomenos, A P; Vardoulakis, S; Heaviside, C; Georgiou, K E; Yamasaki, E N

    2016-01-15

    In many regions of the world, climatic change is associated with increased extreme temperatures, which can have severe effects on mortality and morbidity. In this study, we examine the effect of extreme weather on hospital admissions in Cyprus, for inland and coastal areas, through the use of synoptic weather classifications (air mass types). In addition, the effect of particulate air pollution (PM10) on morbidity is examined. Our results show that two air mass types, namely (a) warm, rainy days with increased levels of water vapour in the atmosphere and (b) cold, cloudy days with increased levels of precipitation, were associated with increased morbidity in the form of hospital admissions. This was true both for cardiovascular and respiratory conditions, for all age groups, but particularly for the elderly, aged over 65. Particulate air pollution was also associated with increased morbidity in Cyprus, where the effect was more pronounced for cardiovascular diseases.

  14. Providing the Larger Climate Context During Extreme Weather - Lessons from Local Television News

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woods, M.; Cullen, H. M.

    2015-12-01

    Local television weathercasters, in their role as Station Scientists, are often called upon to educate viewers about the science and impacts of climate change. Climate Central supports these efforts through its Climate Matters program. Launched in 2010 with support from the National Science Foundation, the program has grown into a network that includes more than 245 weathercasters from across the country and provides localized information on climate and ready-to-use, broadcast quality graphics and analyses in both English and Spanish. This presentation will focus on discussing best practices for integrating climate science into the local weather forecast as well as advances in the science of extreme event attribution. The Chief Meteorologist at News10 (Sacramento, CA) will discuss local news coverage of the ongoing California drought, extreme weather and climate literacy.

  15. Weather extremes in very large, high-resolution ensembles: the weatherathome experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, M. R.; Rosier, S.; Massey, N.; Rye, C.; Bowery, A.; Miller, J.; Otto, F.; Jones, R.; Wilson, S.; Mote, P.; Stone, D. A.; Yamazaki, Y. H.; Carrington, D.

    2011-12-01

    Resolution and ensemble size are often seen as alternatives in climate modelling. Models with sufficient resolution to simulate many classes of extreme weather cannot normally be run often enough to assess the statistics of rare events, still less how these statistics may be changing. As a result, assessments of the impact of external forcing on regional climate extremes must be based either on statistical downscaling from relatively coarse-resolution models, or statistical extrapolation from 10-year to 100-year events. Under the weatherathome experiment, part of the climateprediction.net initiative, we have compiled the Met Office Regional Climate Model HadRM3P to run on personal computer volunteered by the general public at 25 and 50km resolution, embedded within the HadAM3P global atmosphere model. With a global network of about 50,000 volunteers, this allows us to run time-slice ensembles of essentially unlimited size, exploring the statistics of extreme weather under a range of scenarios for surface forcing and atmospheric composition, allowing for uncertainty in both boundary conditions and model parameters. Current experiments, developed with the support of Microsoft Research, focus on three regions, the Western USA, Europe and Southern Africa. We initially simulate the period 1959-2010 to establish which variables are realistically simulated by the model and on what scales. Our next experiments are focussing on the Event Attribution problem, exploring how the probability of various types of extreme weather would have been different over the recent past in a world unaffected by human influence, following the design of Pall et al (2011), but extended to a longer period and higher spatial resolution. We will present the first results of the unique, global, participatory experiment and discuss the implications for the attribution of recent weather events to anthropogenic influence on climate.

  16. Modernizing Distribution System Restoration to Achieve Grid Resiliency Against Extreme Weather Events: An Integrated Solution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Chen; Wang, Jianhui; Ton, Dan

    2017-07-01

    Recent severe power outages caused by extreme weather hazards have highlighted the importance and urgency of improving the resilience of the electric power grid. As the distribution grids still remain vulnerable to natural disasters, the power industry has focused on methods of restoring distribution systems after disasters in an effective and quick manner. The current distribution system restoration practice for utilities is mainly based on predetermined priorities and tends to be inefficient and suboptimal, and the lack of situational awareness after the hazard significantly delays the restoration process. As a result, customers may experience an extended blackout, which causes large economic loss. On the other hand, the emerging advanced devices and technologies enabled through grid modernization efforts have the potential to improve the distribution system restoration strategy. However, utilizing these resources to aid the utilities in better distribution system restoration decision-making in response to extreme weather events is a challenging task. Therefore, this paper proposes an integrated solution: a distribution system restoration decision support tool designed by leveraging resources developed for grid modernization. We first review the current distribution restoration practice and discuss why it is inadequate in response to extreme weather events. Then we describe how the grid modernization efforts could benefit distribution system restoration, and we propose an integrated solution in the form of a decision support tool to achieve the goal. The advantages of the solution include improving situational awareness of the system damage status and facilitating survivability for customers. The paper provides a comprehensive review of how the existing methodologies in the literature could be leveraged to achieve the key advantages. The benefits of the developed system restoration decision support tool include the optimal and efficient allocation of repair

  17. Estimating dew formation in rice, using seasonally averaged diel patterns of weather variables

    OpenAIRE

    Luo, W.; Goudriaan, J.

    2004-01-01

    If dew formation cannot be measured it has to be estimated. Available simulation models for estimating dew formation require hourly weather data as input. However, such data are not available for places without an automatic weather station. In such cases the diel pattern of weather variables might be used to run the simulation model. To investigate the possibility of using diel patterns of weather variables to estimate dew formation, a field experiment was carried out from February to April 1...

  18. Simulation of the 23 July 2012 Extreme Space Weather Event: What if This Extremely Rare CME Was Earth Directed?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngwira, Chigomezyo M.; Pulkkinen, Antti; Mays, M. Leila; Kuznetsova, Maria M.; Galvin, A. B.; Simunac, Kristin; Baker, Daniel N.; Li, Xinlin; Zheng, Yihua; Glocer, Alex

    2013-01-01

    Extreme space weather events are known to cause adverse impacts on critical modern day technological infrastructure such as high-voltage electric power transmission grids. On 23 July 2012, NASA's Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory-Ahead (STEREO-A) spacecraft observed in situ an extremely fast coronal mass ejection (CME) that traveled 0.96 astronomical units (approx. 1 AU) in about 19 h. Here we use the SpaceWeather Modeling Framework (SWMF) to perform a simulation of this rare CME.We consider STEREO-A in situ observations to represent the upstream L1 solar wind boundary conditions. The goal of this study is to examine what would have happened if this Rare-type CME was Earth-bound. Global SWMF-generated ground geomagnetic field perturbations are used to compute the simulated induced geoelectric field at specific ground-based active INTERMAGNET magnetometer sites. Simulation results show that while modeled global SYM-H index, a high-resolution equivalent of the Dst index, was comparable to previously observed severe geomagnetic storms such as the Halloween 2003 storm, the 23 July CME would have produced some of the largest geomagnetically induced electric fields, making it very geoeffective. These results have important practical applications for risk management of electrical power grids.

  19. The heat wave of August 2012 in the Czech Republic: Evaluation using the Weather Extremity Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holtanová, Eva; Valeriánová, Anna; Crhová, Lenka

    2014-05-01

    We present an analysis of the summer heat wave of August 2012 in the Czech Republic. We use and compare results of two different approaches to heat wave evaluation. The Weather Extremity Index evaluates the extremity and spatial extent of the meteorological extreme event of interest. The second method is based on the duration of daily maximum air temperature above specific thresholds. In August 2012, the high air temperature in the Czech Republic lasted from 18/8 to 24/8. It was connected with the inflow of hot air from northern Africa between the low pressure trough over the eastern Atlantic and the region of high pressure in central Europe. The heat wave culminated on 20/8 when the maximum air temperature was higher than 30°C in the whole area of the Czech Republic and the highest daily maximum air temperature on record in the Czech Republic with value of 40.4°C was observed at Dobřichovice station. Our results demonstrate that the studied heat wave was quite extraordinary, occurring so late in the summer with a relatively large areal extent and extremity of detected maximum air temperature. Furthermore, the Weather Extremity Index was found useful for identification of really extreme high air temperature events and facilitated inter-comparison in terms of extremity and spatial extent. However, it cannot be used for detection of all heat waves that could have severe impacts on both human activities and natural ecosystems. The work has been supported by the grant P209/11/1990 funded by the Czech Science Foundation.

  20. Weather patterns, food security and humanitarian response in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haile, Menghestab

    2005-11-29

    Although considerable achievements in the global reduction of hunger and poverty have been made, progress in Africa so far has been very limited. At present, a third of the African population faces widespread hunger and chronic malnutrition and is exposed to a constant threat of acute food crisis and famine. The most affected are rural households whose livelihood is heavily dependent on traditional rainfed agriculture. Rainfall plays a major role in determining agricultural production and hence the economic and social well being of rural communities. The rainfall pattern in sub-Saharan Africa is influenced by large-scale intra-seasonal and inter-annual climate variability including occasional El Niño events in the tropical Pacific resulting in frequent extreme weather event such as droughts and floods that reduce agricultural outputs resulting in severe food shortages. Households and communities facing acute food shortages are forced to adopt coping strategies to meet the immediate food requirements of their families. These extreme responses may have adverse long-term, impacts on households' ability to have sustainable access to food as well as the environment. The HIV/AIDS crisis has also had adverse impacts on food production activities on the continent. In the absence of safety nets and appropriate financial support mechanisms, humanitarian aid is required to enable households effectively cope with emergencies and manage their limited resources more efficiently. Timely and appropriate humanitarian aid will provide households with opportunities to engage in productive and sustainable livelihood strategies. Investments in poverty reduction efforts would have better impact if complemented with timely and predictable response mechanisms that would ensure the protection of livelihoods during crisis periods whether weather or conflict-related. With an improved understanding of climate variability including El Niño, the implications of weather patterns for the food

  1. Sustainable Arctic observing network for predicting weather extremes in mid-latitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inoue, J.; Sato, K.; Yamazaki, A.

    2016-12-01

    Routine atmospheric observations within and over the Arctic Ocean are very expensive and difficult to conduct because of factors such as logistics and the harsh environment. Nevertheless, the great benefit of such observations is their contribution to an improvement of skills of weather predictions over the Arctic and mid-latitudes. The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) from mid-2017 to mid-2019 proposed by the World Weather Research Programme - Polar Prediction Project (WWRP-PPP) would be the best opportunity to address the issues. The combination of observations and data assimilation is an effective way to understand the predictability of weather extremes in mid-latitudes. This talk presents the current activities related to PPP based on international special radiosonde observing network in the Arctic, and challenges toward YOPP. Comparing with summer and winter cases, the additional observations over the Arctic during winter were more effective for improving the predicting skills of weather extremes because the impact of the observations would be carried toward the mid-latitudes by the stronger jet stream and its frequent meanderings. During summer, on the other hand, the impact of extra observations was localized over the Arctic region but still important for precise weather forecasts over the Arctic Ocean, contributing to safe navigation along the Northern Sea Route. To consolidate the sustainable Arctic radiosonde observing network, increasing the frequency of observations at Arctic coastal stations, instead of commissioning special observations from ships and ice camps, would be a feasible way. In fact, several existing stations facing the Arctic Ocean have already increased the frequency of observations during winter and/or summer.

  2. Extreme weather event in spring 2013 delayed breeding time of Great Tit and Blue Tit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glądalski, Michał; Bańbura, Mirosława; Kaliński, Adam; Markowski, Marcin; Skwarska, Joanna; Wawrzyniak, Jarosław; Zieliński, Piotr; Bańbura, Jerzy

    2014-12-01

    The impact of climatic changes on life cycles by re-scheduling the timing of reproduction is an important topic in studies of biodiversity. Global warming causes and will probably cause in the future not only raising temperatures but also an increasing frequency of extreme weather events. In 2013, the winter in central and north Europe ended late, with low temperatures and long-retained snow cover--this extreme weather phenomenon acted in opposition to the increasing temperature trend. In 2013, thermal conditions measured by the warmth sum in the period 15 March–15 April, a critical time for early breeding passerines, went far beyond the range of the warmth sums for at least 40 preceding years. Regardless of what was the reason for the extreme early spring 2013 and assuming that there is a potential for more atypical years because of climate change, we should look closely at every extreme phenomenon and its consequences for the phenology of organisms. In this paper, we report that the prolonged occurrence of winter conditions during the time that is crucial for Blue Tit (Cyanistes caeruleus) and Great Tit (Parus major) reproduction caused a substantial delay in the onset of egg laying in comparison with typical springs.

  3. Links between Synoptic Weather Types and Extreme Wet Events in the Arabian Peninsula (1960-2100)

    KAUST Repository

    El Kenawy, Ahmed M.

    2014-05-01

    In this work, an automated version of the Lamb weather type classification scheme was applied to classify daily weather types in the Arabian Peninsula. The output catalogue included ten basic weather types, which describe the direction and vorticity of airflow in the peninsula (i.e., cyclonic, anticyclonic and directional). These large-scale patterns were first defined for the observed climate (1960-2013), allowing for an assessment of the spatial and temporal variations in circulation-rainfall relationships over the peninsula using rainfall data from 209 weather observatories. The same methodology was then applied to assess how the defined weather types will be presented in future climate simulations (under RCP45 and RCP85 emission scenarios) and to explore their probable dependency with rainfall characteristics. In this regard, daily simulated SLP derived from an ensemble of 12 climate models within the CMIP5 project were used for two future time-slices (2035-2060 and 2075-2100). Our findings indicate that the cyclonic (C) type represented the most frequent classification with 69.2% of days, followed by SE directional flows (21%). It was also found that the main circulation features influencing winter (spring) rainfall across the peninsula are the strong influence of the anticyclonic (easterly and southeasterly) air masses. Generally, the role of airflows originating from the Indian Ocean is larger than those of the Mediterranean and the Red Seas. The trend results of defined weather types show that the cyclonic (anticyclonic) conditions tend to decrease (increase). This picture is likely to continue during the 21st century. The only exception corresponds to the summer season. Here, understanding the association between atmospheric circulation patterns and rainfall in the Arabian Peninsula can be important for the understanding of climatic variability and thus developing circulation-based downscaling methods in this region.

  4. Economic Evaluations of the Health Impacts of Weather-Related Extreme Events: A Scoping Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmitt, Laetitia H M; Graham, Hilary M; White, Piran C L

    2016-11-08

    The frequency and severity of extreme events is expected to increase under climate change. There is a need to understand the economic consequences of human exposure to these extreme events, to underpin decisions on risk reduction. We undertook a scoping review of economic evaluations of the adverse health effects from exposure to weather-related extreme events. We searched PubMed, Embase and Web of Science databases with no restrictions to the type of evaluations. Twenty studies were included, most of which were recently published. Most studies have been undertaken in the U.S. (nine studies) or Asia (seven studies), whereas we found no studies in Africa, Central and Latin America nor the Middle East. Extreme temperatures accounted for more than a third of the pool of studies (seven studies), closely followed by flooding (six studies). No economic study was found on drought. Whilst studies were heterogeneous in terms of objectives and methodology, they clearly indicate that extreme events will become a pressing public health issue with strong welfare and distributional implications. The current body of evidence, however, provides little information to support decisions on the allocation of scarce resources between risk reduction options. In particular, the review highlights a significant lack of research attention to the potential cost-effectiveness of interventions that exploit the capacity of natural ecosystems to reduce our exposure to, or ameliorate the consequences of, extreme events.

  5. Economic Evaluations of the Health Impacts of Weather-Related Extreme Events: A Scoping Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laetitia H. M. Schmitt

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The frequency and severity of extreme events is expected to increase under climate change. There is a need to understand the economic consequences of human exposure to these extreme events, to underpin decisions on risk reduction. We undertook a scoping review of economic evaluations of the adverse health effects from exposure to weather-related extreme events. We searched PubMed, Embase and Web of Science databases with no restrictions to the type of evaluations. Twenty studies were included, most of which were recently published. Most studies have been undertaken in the U.S. (nine studies or Asia (seven studies, whereas we found no studies in Africa, Central and Latin America nor the Middle East. Extreme temperatures accounted for more than a third of the pool of studies (seven studies, closely followed by flooding (six studies. No economic study was found on drought. Whilst studies were heterogeneous in terms of objectives and methodology, they clearly indicate that extreme events will become a pressing public health issue with strong welfare and distributional implications. The current body of evidence, however, provides little information to support decisions on the allocation of scarce resources between risk reduction options. In particular, the review highlights a significant lack of research attention to the potential cost-effectiveness of interventions that exploit the capacity of natural ecosystems to reduce our exposure to, or ameliorate the consequences of, extreme events.

  6. Predicting and Mitigating Socioeconomic Impacts of Extreme Space Weather: Benefits of Improved Forecasts (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanekal, S. G.; Baker, D. N.

    2013-12-01

    Vulnerability of society to severe space weather is an issue of increasing worldwide concern. A notable example is that electric power networks connecting widely separated geographic areas may incur debilitating damage induced by geomagnetic storms. The conclusion of a recent National Research Council report was that harsh space weather events can cause tens of millions to many billions of dollars of damage to space and ground-based assets during major solar storms. The most extreme events could cause months-long power outages and could cost in excess of one trillion dollars. In this presentation, we discuss broad socioeconomic impacts of space weather and also discuss the immense potential benefits of improved space weather forecasts. Such forecasts would be based on continuous observations of disturbances on the Sun and would take advantage of our increased understanding of the Earth's space environmental conditions and the causative solar drivers. We consider scenarios of how such observation-based forecasts could be used most effectively by policy makers and technology management officials.

  7. Estimating dew formation in rice, using seasonally averaged diel patterns of weather variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Luo, W.; Goudriaan, J.

    2004-01-01

    If dew formation cannot be measured it has to be estimated. Available simulation models for estimating dew formation require hourly weather data as input. However, such data are not available for places without an automatic weather station. In such cases the diel pattern of weather variables might

  8. Some traits of low temperature germplasm wheat under extremely unfavorable weather conditions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张嵩午; 王长发; 冯佰利; 苗芳; 周春菊; 张荣萍

    2001-01-01

    Through a long-term observation on the canopy temperature and some traits of wheat the temperature germplasm of wheat was found to result in the wheats having either a high or a low plant temperature. Under normal weather conditions, the wheat having a low temperature germplasm (LTG) demonstrated several advantageous physiologi-cal and agronomic traits than those having a high temperature germplasm (HTG). Under the extremely unfavorableweather conditions, such as rainy weather or severe drought, LTG wheat still could maintain its superiority to HTG wheat in physiological and agronomic traits including leaf functional duration, chlorophyll content, malondialdehyde content, transpiration rate, net photosynthesis rate, root vitality and kernel plumpness. The wide adaptability of LTG wheat to awide range of meteoro-ecological conditions could provide a valuable germplasm in breeding of good strains with broad-spectrum stress resistance.

  9. Influences of extreme weather, climate and pesticide use on invertebrates in cereal fields over 42 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ewald, Julie A; Wheatley, Christopher J; Aebischer, Nicholas J; Moreby, Stephen J; Duffield, Simon J; Crick, Humphrey Q P; Morecroft, Michael B

    2015-11-01

    Cereal fields are central to balancing food production and environmental health in the face of climate change. Within them, invertebrates provide key ecosystem services. Using 42 years of monitoring data collected in southern England, we investigated the sensitivity and resilience of invertebrates in cereal fields to extreme weather events and examined the effect of long-term changes in temperature, rainfall and pesticide use on invertebrate abundance. Of the 26 invertebrate groups examined, eleven proved sensitive to extreme weather events. Average abundance increased in hot/dry years and decreased in cold/wet years for Araneae, Cicadellidae, adult Heteroptera, Thysanoptera, Braconidae, Enicmus and Lathridiidae. The average abundance of Delphacidae, Cryptophagidae and Mycetophilidae increased in both hot/dry and cold/wet years relative to other years. The abundance of all 10 groups usually returned to their long-term trend within a year after the extreme event. For five of them, sensitivity to cold/wet events was lowest (translating into higher abundances) at locations with a westerly aspect. Some long-term trends in invertebrate abundance correlated with temperature and rainfall, indicating that climate change may affect them. However, pesticide use was more important in explaining the trends, suggesting that reduced pesticide use would mitigate the effects of climate change.

  10. Trends in Temperature Extremes in Association with Weather-Intraseasonal Fluctuations in Eastern China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    QIAN Cheng; YAN Zhongwei; Zhaohua WU; FU Congbin; TU Kai

    2011-01-01

    Trends in the frequencies of four temperature extremes (the occurrence of warm days, cold days, warm nights and cold nights) with respect to a modulated annual cycle (MAC), and those associated exclusively with weather-intraseasonal fluctuations (WIF) in eastern China were investigated based on an updated homogenized daily maximum and minimum temperature dataset for 1960-2008. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) method was used to isolate the WIF, MAC, and longer-term components from the temperature series. The annual, winter and summer occurrences of warm (cold) nights were found to have increased (decreased) significantly almost everywhere, while those of warm (cold) days have increased (decreased) in northern China (north of 40°N). However, the four temperature extremes associated exclusively with WIF for winter have decreased almost everywhere, while those for summer have decreased in the north but increased in the south. These characteristics agree with changes in the amplitude of WIF. In particular, winter WIF of maximum temperature tended to weaken almost everywhere, especially in eastern coastal areas (by 10%-20%); summer WIF tended to intensify in southern China by 10%-20%. It is notable that in northern China, the occurrence of warm days has increased, even where that associated with WIF has decreased significantly. This suggests that the recent increasing frequency of warm extremes is due to a considerable rise in the mean temperature level, which surpasses the effect of the weakening weather fluctuations in northern China.

  11. Extremely Severe Space Weather and Geomagnetically Induced Currents in Regions with Locally Heterogeneous Ground Resistivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujita, Shigeru; Kataoka, Ryuho; Pulkkinen, Antti; Watari, Shinichi

    2016-01-01

    Large geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) triggered by extreme space weather events are now regarded as one of the serious natural threats to the modern electrified society. The risk is described in detail in High-Impact, Low-Frequency Event Risk, A Jointly-Commissioned Summary Report of the North American Electric Reliability Corporation and the US Department of Energy's November 2009 Workshop, June 2010. For example, the March 13-14,1989 storm caused a large-scale blackout affecting about 6 million people in Quebec, Canada, and resulting in substantial economic losses in Canada and the USA (Bolduc 2002). Therefore, European and North American nations have invested in GIC research such as the Solar Shield project in the USA (Pulkkinen et al. 2009, 2015a). In 2015, the Japanese government (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, METI) acknowledged the importance of GIC research in Japan. After reviewing the serious damages caused by the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, METI recognized the potential risk to the electric power grid posed by extreme space weather. During extreme events, GICs can be concerning even in mid- and low-latitude countries and have become a global issue.

  12. Using a Six Sigma Fishbone Analysis Approach To Evaluate the Effect of Extreme Weather Events on Salmonella Positives in Young Chicken Slaughter Establishments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linville, John W; Schumann, Douglas; Aston, Christopher; Defibaugh-Chavez, Stephanie; Seebohm, Scott; Touhey, Lucy

    2016-12-01

    A six sigma fishbone analysis approach was used to develop a machine learning model in SAS, Version 9.4, by using stepwise linear regression. The model evaluated the effect of a wide variety of variables, including slaughter establishment operational measures, normal (30-year average) weather, and extreme weather events on the rate of Salmonella -positive carcasses in young chicken slaughter establishments. Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) verification carcass sampling data, as well as corresponding data from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration and the Federal Emergency Management Agency, from September 2011 through April 2015, were included in the model. The results of the modeling show that in addition to basic establishment operations, normal weather patterns, differences from normal and disaster events, including time lag weather and disaster variables, played a role in explaining the Salmonella percent positive that varied by slaughter volume quartile. Findings show that weather and disaster events should be considered as explanatory variables when assessing pathogen-related prevalence analysis or research and slaughter operational controls. The apparent significance of time lag weather variables suggested that at least some of the impact on Salmonella rates occurred after the weather events, which may offer opportunities for FSIS or the poultry industry to implement interventions to mitigate those effects.

  13. Assessing the impact of science communication in the development of resilient cities to extreme weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vicari, Rosa; Gires, Auguste; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel

    2014-05-01

    The combined effects of climate change and increasing urbanisation call for new solutions to achieve urban resiliency to extreme weather. The research projects carried out by the HM&Co team (LEESU & Chair 'Hydrology for Resilient Cities' sponsored by Veolia) need to be supported by communication activities aimed to support community capacity building and cooperation between scientists and their partners and stakeholders. While outreach activities are becoming an integral part of many research projects on climate adaptation, their evaluation is scarce, rather optional, very limited. This work aims to develop quantitative and qualitative evaluation of science communication and to design corresponding assessment tools. It will be examined how evaluation can eventually improve the quality, efficiency and impact of communication activities in enhancing collaboration between scientists, professionals (e.g. water managers, urban planners) and beneficiaries (e.g. concerned citizens, policy makers). The research takes hold on several case studies on projects and programs aiming to increase the resiliency of cities to extreme weather: French projects and programmes such as RadX@IdF and Chair "Hydrology for a resilient city", European projects such as Climate KIC Blue Green Dream and Interreg NWE IVB RainGain and worldwide collaborations (e.g. TOMACS). The evaluation techniques and tools developed in the framework of this work are intended to become a useful support for engineers and researchers involved in projects on urban hydrology where resilience to extreme weather events relies also on effective communication processes between the above mentioned social actors. In particular, one of the purposes of this work is to highlight how auto-evaluation can improve on-going communication activities and create a virtuous circle of planning/implementation/evaluation. This research has links with those on the development of exploration techniques of the unstructured social big data

  14. Temporal Fluctuations in Weather and Climate Extremes That Cause Economic and Human Health Impacts: A Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Pielke, Roger A., Jr.; Changnon, Stanley A.

    1999-06-01

    This paper reviews recent work on trends during this century in societal impacts (direct economic losses and fatalities) in the United States from extreme weather conditions and compares those with trends of associated atmospheric phenomena. Most measures of the economic impacts of weather and climate extremes over the past several decades reveal increasing losses. But trends in most related weather and climate extremes do not show comparable increases with time. This suggests that increasing losses are primarily due to increasing vulnerability arising from a variety of societal changes, including a growing population in higher risk coastal areas and large cities, more property subject to damage, and lifestyle and demographic changes subjecting lives and property to greater exposure.Flood damages and fatalities have generally increased in the last 25 years. While some have speculated that this may be due in part to a corresponding increase in the frequency of heavy rain events, the climate contribution to the observed impacts trends remains to be quantified. There has been a steady increase in hurricane losses. However, when changes in population, inflation, and wealth are considered, there is instead a downward trend. This is consistent with observations of trends in hurricane frequency and intensity. Increasing property losses due to thunderstorm-related phenomena (winds, hail, tornadoes) are explained entirely by changes in societal factors, consistent with the observed trends in the thunderstorm phenomena. Winter storm damages have increased in the last 10-15 years and this appears to be partially due to increases in the frequency of intense nor'easters. There is no evidence of changes in drought-related losses (although data are poor) and no apparent trend in climatic drought frequency. There is also no evidence of changes in the frequency of intense heat or cold waves.

  15. Impact of extreme weather on critical infrastructure: the EU-INTACT risk framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tagg Andrew

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Resilience of critical infrastructure (CI to extreme weather events, such as heavy rainfall, high temperatures and winter storms, is one of the most demanding challenges for governments and society. Recent experiences have highlighted the economic and societal reliance on a dependable and resilient infrastructure, and the far-reaching impacts that outages or malfunctions can have. Growing scientific evidence indicates that more severe and frequent extreme weather events are likely. The EU-funded INTACT project addresses these CI challenges and attempts to bring together cutting-edge knowledge and experience from across Europe to inform the development of best practice approaches in planning, crisis response and recovery capabilities. The project considers the options for mitigating the extreme weather impacts. A key component of the INTACT project is the development of a risk management structure to support decision-making in the case studies. This structure forms part of the overall INTACT Wiki: the main output of the project. It comprises a risk ‘framework’ that sets out how information and guidance can be accessed by CI owners and operators. Within this there is a step-wise risk assessment process based on best practice from the IEC. The risk framework and process presents: structures for models and data requirements for decision making; identifies tools and methods that support decision making; supports analysis of measures to protect CI through simulation; and indicates gaps in modelling and data availability. This paper outlines the components of the risk framework and process, and illustrates its use in a case study dealing with electricity supply and winter storms.

  16. Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Brage B.; Isaksen, Ketil; Benestad, Rasmus E.; Kohler, Jack; Pedersen, Åshild Ø.; Loe, Leif E.; Coulson, Stephen J.; Larsen, Jan Otto; Varpe, Øystein

    2014-11-01

    One predicted consequence of global warming is an increased frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, or heavy rainfalls. In parts of the Arctic, extreme warm spells and heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) events in winter are already more frequent. How these weather events impact snow-pack and permafrost characteristics is rarely documented empirically, and the implications for wildlife and society are hence far from understood. Here we characterize and document the effects of an extreme warm spell and ROS event that occurred in High Arctic Svalbard in January-February 2012, during the polar night. In this normally cold semi-desert environment, we recorded above-zero temperatures (up to 7 °C) across the entire archipelago and record-breaking precipitation, with up to 98 mm rainfall in one day (return period of >500 years prior to this event) and 272 mm over the two-week long warm spell. These precipitation amounts are equivalent to 25 and 70% respectively of the mean annual total precipitation. The extreme event caused significant increase in permafrost temperatures down to at least 5 m depth, induced slush avalanches with resultant damage to infrastructure, and left a significant ground-ice cover (˜5-20 cm thick basal ice). The ground-ice not only affected inhabitants by closing roads and airports as well as reducing mobility and thereby tourism income, but it also led to high starvation-induced mortality in all monitored populations of the wild reindeer by blocking access to the winter food source. Based on empirical-statistical downscaling of global climate models run under the moderate RCP4.5 emission scenario, we predict strong future warming with average mid-winter temperatures even approaching 0 °C, suggesting increased frequency of ROS. This will have far-reaching implications for Arctic ecosystems and societies through the changes in snow-pack and permafrost properties.

  17. Extreme weather exposure identification for road networks - a comparative assessment of statistical methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlögl, Matthias; Laaha, Gregor

    2017-04-01

    The assessment of road infrastructure exposure to extreme weather events is of major importance for scientists and practitioners alike. In this study, we compare the different extreme value approaches and fitting methods with respect to their value for assessing the exposure of transport networks to extreme precipitation and temperature impacts. Based on an Austrian data set from 25 meteorological stations representing diverse meteorological conditions, we assess the added value of partial duration series (PDS) over the standardly used annual maxima series (AMS) in order to give recommendations for performing extreme value statistics of meteorological hazards. Results show the merits of the robust L-moment estimation, which yielded better results than maximum likelihood estimation in 62 % of all cases. At the same time, results question the general assumption of the threshold excess approach (employing PDS) being superior to the block maxima approach (employing AMS) due to information gain. For low return periods (non-extreme events) the PDS approach tends to overestimate return levels as compared to the AMS approach, whereas an opposite behavior was found for high return levels (extreme events). In extreme cases, an inappropriate threshold was shown to lead to considerable biases that may outperform the possible gain of information from including additional extreme events by far. This effect was visible from neither the square-root criterion nor standardly used graphical diagnosis (mean residual life plot) but rather from a direct comparison of AMS and PDS in combined quantile plots. We therefore recommend performing AMS and PDS approaches simultaneously in order to select the best-suited approach. This will make the analyses more robust, not only in cases where threshold selection and dependency introduces biases to the PDS approach but also in cases where the AMS contains non-extreme events that may introduce similar biases. For assessing the performance of

  18. Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, Michael E.; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Kornhuber, Kai; Steinman, Byron A.; Miller, Sonya K.; Coumou, Dim

    2017-01-01

    Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been shown to be associated with the presence of high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves within a particular wavelength range (zonal wavenumber 6–8). The underlying mechanistic relationship involves the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) of synoptic-scale waves with that wavenumber range becoming trapped within an effective mid-latitude atmospheric waveguide. Recent work suggests an increase in recent decades in the occurrence of QRA-favorable conditions and associated extreme weather, possibly linked to amplified Arctic warming and thus a climate change influence. Here, we isolate a specific fingerprint in the zonal mean surface temperature profile that is associated with QRA-favorable conditions. State-of-the-art (“CMIP5”) historical climate model simulations subject to anthropogenic forcing display an increase in the projection of this fingerprint that is mirrored in multiple observational surface temperature datasets. Both the models and observations suggest this signal has only recently emerged from the background noise of natural variability. PMID:28345645

  19. Reduced CO2 fertilization effect in temperate C3 grasslands under more extreme weather conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obermeier, W. A.; Lehnert, L. W.; Kammann, C. I.; Müller, C.; Grünhage, L.; Luterbacher, J.; Erbs, M.; Moser, G.; Seibert, R.; Yuan, N.; Bendix, J.

    2016-12-01

    The increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations from anthropogenic activities is the major driver of recent global climate change. The stimulation of plant photosynthesis due to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations ([CO2]) is widely assumed to increase the net primary productivity (NPP) of C3 plants--the CO2 fertilization effect (CFE). However, the magnitude and persistence of the CFE under future climates, including more frequent weather extremes, are controversial. Here we use data from 16 years of temperate grassland grown under `free-air carbon dioxide enrichment’ conditions to show that the CFE on above-ground biomass is strongest under local average environmental conditions. The observed CFE was reduced or disappeared under wetter, drier and/or hotter conditions when the forcing variable exceeded its intermediate regime. This is in contrast to predictions of an increased CO2 fertilization effect under drier and warmer conditions. Such extreme weather conditions are projected to occur more intensely and frequently under future climate scenarios. Consequently, current biogeochemical models might overestimate the future NPP sink capacity of temperate C3 grasslands and hence underestimate future atmospheric [CO2] increase.

  20. Reduced CO2 fertilization effect in temperate C3 grasslands under more extreme weather conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obermeier, W. A.; Lehnert, L. W.; Kammann, C. I.; Müller, C.; Grünhage, L.; Luterbacher, J.; Erbs, M.; Moser, G.; Seibert, R.; Yuan, N.; Bendix, J.

    2017-02-01

    The increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations from anthropogenic activities is the major driver of recent global climate change. The stimulation of plant photosynthesis due to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations ([CO2]) is widely assumed to increase the net primary productivity (NPP) of C3 plants--the CO2 fertilization effect (CFE). However, the magnitude and persistence of the CFE under future climates, including more frequent weather extremes, are controversial. Here we use data from 16 years of temperate grassland grown under `free-air carbon dioxide enrichment’ conditions to show that the CFE on above-ground biomass is strongest under local average environmental conditions. The observed CFE was reduced or disappeared under wetter, drier and/or hotter conditions when the forcing variable exceeded its intermediate regime. This is in contrast to predictions of an increased CO2 fertilization effect under drier and warmer conditions. Such extreme weather conditions are projected to occur more intensely and frequently under future climate scenarios. Consequently, current biogeochemical models might overestimate the future NPP sink capacity of temperate C3 grasslands and hence underestimate future atmospheric [CO2] increase.

  1. Future projections of extreme precipitation using Advanced Weather Generator (AWE-GEN) over Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syafrina, A. H.; Zalina, M. D.; Juneng, L.

    2014-09-01

    A stochastic downscaling methodology known as the Advanced Weather Generator, AWE-GEN, has been tested at four stations in Peninsular Malaysia using observations available from 1975 to 2005. The methodology involves a stochastic downscaling procedure based on a Bayesian approach. Climate statistics from a multi-model ensemble of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs were calculated and factors of change were derived to produce the probability distribution functions (PDF). New parameters were obtained to project future climate time series. A multi-model ensemble was used in this study. The projections of extreme precipitation were based on the RCP 6.0 scenario (2081-2100). The model was able to simulate both hourly and 24-h extreme precipitation, as well as wet spell durations quite well for almost all regions. However, the performance of GCM models varies significantly in all regions showing high variability of monthly precipitation for both observed and future periods. The extreme precipitation for both hourly and 24-h seems to increase in future, while extreme of wet spells remain unchanged, up to the return periods of 10-40 years.

  2. Climate change, extreme weather events, air pollution and respiratory health in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Sario, M; Katsouyanni, K; Michelozzi, P

    2013-09-01

    Due to climate change and other factors, air pollution patterns are changing in several urbanised areas of the world, with a significant effect on respiratory health both independently and synergistically with weather conditions; climate scenarios show Europe as one of the most vulnerable regions. European studies on heatwave episodes have consistently shown a synergistic effect of air pollution and high temperatures, while the potential weather-air pollution interaction during wildfires and dust storms is unknown. Allergen patterns are also changing in response to climate change, and air pollution can modify the allergenic potential of pollens, especially in the presence of specific weather conditions. The underlying mechanisms of all these interactions are not well known; the health consequences vary from decreases in lung function to allergic diseases, new onset of diseases, exacerbation of chronic respiratory diseases, and premature death. These multidimensional climate-pollution-allergen effects need to be taken into account in estimating both climate and air pollution-related respiratory effects, in order to set up adequate policy and public health actions to face both the current and future climate and pollution challenges.

  3. Uranium isotope composition of a laterite profile during extreme weathering of basalt in Guangdong, South China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, J.; Zhou, Z.; Gong, Y.; Lundstrom, C.; Huang, F.

    2015-12-01

    Rock weathering and soil formation in the critical zone are important for material cycle from the solid Earth to superficial system. Laterite is a major type of soil in South China forming at hot-humid climate, which has strong effect on the global uranium cycle. Uranium is closely related to the environmental redox condition because U is stable at U(Ⅳ) in anoxic condition and U(Ⅵ) as soluble uranyl ion (UO22+) under oxic circumstance. In order to understand the behavior of U isotopes during crust weathering, here we report uranium isotopic compositions of soil and base rock samples from a laterite profile originated from extreme weathering of basalt in Guangdong, South China. The uranium isotopic data were measured on a Nu Plasma MC-ICP-MS at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign using the double spike method. The δ238U of BCR-1 is -0.29±0.03‰ (relative to the international standard CRM-112A), corresponding to a 238U/235U ratio of 137.911±0.004. Our result of BCR-1 agrees with previous analyses (e.g., -0.28‰ in Weyer et al. 2008) [1]. U contents of the laterite profile decrease from 1.9 ppm to 0.9 ppm with depth, and peak at 160 - 170 cm (2.3 ppm), much higher than the U content of base rocks (~0.5 ppm). In contrary, U/Th of laterites is lower than that of base rock (0.27) except the peak at the depth of 160-170 cm (0.38), indicating significant U loss during weathering. Notably, U isotope compositions of soils show a small variation from -0.38 to -0.28‰, consistent with the base rock within analytical error (0.05‰ to 0.08‰, 2sd). Such small variation can be explained by a "rind effect" (Wang et al., 2015) [2], by which U(Ⅳ) can be completely oxidized to U(VI) layer by layer during basalt weathering by dissolved oxygen. Therefore, our study indicates that U loss during basalt weathering at the hot-humid climate does not change U isotope composition of superficial water system. [1] Weyer S. et al. (2008) Natural fractionation of 238U/235

  4. Interpreting Climate Model Projections of Extreme Weather Events for Decision Makers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vavrus, S. J.; Notaro, M.

    2014-12-01

    The proliferation of output from climate model ensembles, such as CMIP3 and CMIP5, has greatly expanded access to future projections, but there is no accepted blueprint for how this data should be interpreted. Decision makers are thus faced with difficult questions when trying to utilize such information: How reliable are the multi-model mean projections? How should the changes simulated by outlier models be treated? How can raw projections of temperature and precipitation be translated into probabilities? The multi-model average is often regarded as the most accurate single estimate of future conditions, but higher-order moments representing the variance and skewness of the distribution of projections provide important information about uncertainty. We have analyzed a set of statistically downscaled climate model projections from the CMIP3 archive to conduct an assessment of extreme weather events at a level designed to be relevant for decision makers. Our analysis uses the distribution of 13 GCM projections to derive the inter-model standard deviation (and coefficient of variation, COV), skewness, and percentile ranges for simulated changes in extreme heat, cold, and precipitation during the middle and late 21st century for the A1B emissions scenario. These metrics help to establish the overall confidence level across the entire range of projections (via the inter-model COV), relative confidence in the simulated high-end versus low-end changes (via skewness), and probabilistic uncertainty bounds derived from a bootstrapping technique. Over our analysis domain centered on the United States Midwest, some primary findings include: (1) Greater confidence in projections of less extreme cold than more extreme heat and intense precipitation, (2) Greater confidence in the low-end than high-end projections of extreme heat, and (3) Higher spatial and temporal variability in the confidence of projected increases of heavy precipitation. In addition, our bootstrapping

  5. Climate Variability and Weather Extremes: Model-Simulated and Historical Data. Chapter 9

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schubert, Siegfried D.; Lim, Young-Kwon

    2012-01-01

    Extremes in weather and climate encompass a wide array of phenomena including tropical storms, mesoscale convective systems, snowstorms, floods, heat waves, and drought. Understanding how such extremes might change in the future requires an understanding of their past behavior including their connections to large-scale climate variability and trends. Previous studies suggest that the most robust findings concerning changes in short-term extremes are those that can be most directly (though not completely) tied to the increase in the global mean temperatures. These include the findings that (IPCC 2007): There has been a widespread reduction in the number of frost days in mid-latitude regions in recent decades, an increase in the number of warm extremes, particularly warm nights, and a reduction in the number of cold extremes, particularly cold nights. For North America in particular (CCSP SAP 3.3, 2008): There are fewer unusually cold days during the last few decades. The last 10 years have seen a lower number of severe cold waves than for any other 10-year period in the historical record that dates back to 1895. There has been a decrease in the number of frost days and a lengthening of the frost-free season, particularly in the western part of North America. Other aspects of extremes such as the changes in storminess have a less clear signature of long term change, with considerable interannual, and decadal variability that can obscure any climate change signal. Nevertheless, regarding extratropical storms (CCSP SAP 3.3, 2008): The balance of evidence suggests that there has been a northward shift in the tracks of strong low pressure systems (storms) in both the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins. For North America: Regional analyses suggest that there has been a decrease in snowstorms in the South and lower Midwest of the United States, and an increase in snowstorms in the upper Midwest and Northeast. Despite the progress already made, our understanding of the

  6. Analysis of weather patterns for attribution of changes in floods to anthropogenic climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murawski, Aline; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Merz, Bruno

    2015-04-01

    Detection of changes in the frequency and/or magnitude of floods has been extensively carried out for many river basins worldwide. However, little effort has been made so far to attribute these changes to certain drivers such as climate change, changes in land use, catchment properties, or river training. The knowledge of reasons behind observed changes is essential in order to better quantify related risks and to be able to adapt to changing flood risks or to take action to reduce them. As climate change is assumed to be a significant driver of changes in the past decades and near future, the contribution of climate change to changes in floods is of great interest. To quantify the flood risk attributable to climate change, a hydrological model can be run with different climate input - weather time series representing the observed climate or a climate without the influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (non-GHG). These two different states of the climate system are assumed to be represented in the occurrence of weather patterns. Each weather pattern can be linked to an individual distribution of values of weather variables (e.g. precipitation, temperature, etc.). This link can be established by first applying a weather pattern classification scheme to large-scale gridded observations, and secondly deriving the distribution of values of weather variables that were observed locally during the same weather pattern occurrence. After applying the weather pattern classification scheme to the GCM output as well, values for weather variables can be drawn from the derived distributions, resulting in new weather time series for local stations. The derivation of weather patterns and establishment of a link to local weather variables is presented in this contribution.

  7. Mitigation Efforts in Rural Communities after Extreme Weather Events - New Insights for Stakeholders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vesela Radovic

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Global climate changes are undoubtedly course of the increasing frequency of extreme whether events all over the world. Rural communities belong to the “group of victims” which is greatly jeopardized by consequences of the extreme weather events. Having in mind limited capacities for the preparedness, response and recovery after any kind of emergency it is clear that the rural community mostly needs external help. That is the point of this paper: to make new insights about this important issue, and to discuss: “how to provide adequate help in the rural communities and build adequate adaptive and response capacities”. In many countries agriculture and rural tourism are main economic activities in the rural area and its interruption could be the obstacle for implementation of sustainable development. Various stakeholders omit to be aware of this issue. Emergency agencies and many others have to make the comprehensive plan for rural communities (having in mind all its limitations. In the Republic of Serbia rural communities do not have enough capacity for recovery and usually it takes many years after an event. A minimum of an economic recovery standard has to be created for the rural community. It also has to be a specific contingency plan in the future reorganizations of emergency services in Serbia and at the Western Balkan region. It should be one of the priority issues for stakeholders in the near future in disaster risk reduction. Providing equal access to resources to population in the rural community after the extreme weather event has to be the priority task for policy makers and all actors in emergency management.

  8. Generating extreme weather event sets from very large ensembles of regional climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massey, Neil; Guillod, Benoit; Otto, Friederike; Allen, Myles; Jones, Richard; Hall, Jim

    2015-04-01

    Generating extreme weather event sets from very large ensembles of regional climate models Neil Massey, Benoit P. Guillod, Friederike E. L. Otto, Myles R. Allen, Richard Jones, Jim W. Hall Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK Extreme events can have large impacts on societies and are therefore being increasingly studied. In particular, climate change is expected to impact the frequency and intensity of these events. However, a major limitation when investigating extreme weather events is that, by definition, only few events are present in observations. A way to overcome this issue it to use large ensembles of model simulations. Using the volunteer distributed computing (VDC) infrastructure of weather@home [1], we run a very large number (10'000s) of RCM simulations over the European domain at a resolution of 25km, with an improved land-surface scheme, nested within a free-running GCM. Using VDC allows many thousands of climate model runs to be computed. Using observations for the GCM boundary forcings we can run historical "hindcast" simulations over the past 100 to 150 years. This allows us, due to the chaotic variability of the atmosphere, to ascertain how likely an extreme event was, given the boundary forcings, and to derive synthetic event sets. The events in these sets did not actually occur in the observed record but could have occurred given the boundary forcings, with an associated probability. The event sets contain time-series of fields of meteorological variables that allow impact modellers to assess the loss the event would incur. Projections of events into the future are achieved by modelling projections of the sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice boundary forcings, by combining the variability of the SST in the observed record with a range of warming signals derived from the varying responses of SSTs in the CMIP5 ensemble to elevated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in three RCP scenarios. Simulating the future with a

  9. An Urban Resilience to Extreme Weather Events Framework for Development of Post Event Learning and Transformative Adaptation in Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solecki, W. D.; Friedman, E. S.; Breitzer, R.

    2016-12-01

    Increasingly frequent extreme weather events are becoming an immediate priority for urban coastal practitioners and stakeholders, adding complexity to decisions concerning risk management for short-term action and long-term needs of city climate stakeholders. The conflict between the prioritization of short versus long-term events by decision-makers creates disconnect between climate science and its applications. The Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast (CCRUN), a NOAA RISA team, is developing a set of mechanisms to help bridge this gap. The mechanisms are designed to promote the application of climate science on extreme weather events and their aftermath. It is in the post event policy window where significant opportunities for science-policy linkages exist. In particular, CCRUN is interested in producing actionable and useful information for city managers to use in decision-making processes surrounding extreme weather events and climate change. These processes include a sector specific needs assessment survey instrument and two tools for urban coastal practitioners and stakeholders. The tools focus on post event learning and connections between resilience and transformative adaptation. Elements of the two tools are presented. Post extreme event learning supports urban coastal practitioners and decision-makers concerned about maximizing opportunities for knowledge transfer and assimilation, and policy initiation and development following an extreme weather event. For the urban U.S. Northeast, post event learning helps coastal stakeholders build the capacity to adapt to extreme weather events, and inform and develop their planning capacity through analysis of past actions and steps taken in response to Hurricane Sandy. Connecting resilience with transformative adaptation is intended to promote resilience in urban Northeast coastal settings to the long-term negative consequences of extreme weather events. This is done through a knowledge co

  10. Future intensification of hydro-meteorological extremes: downscaling using the weather research and forecasting model

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Samra, R.; Bou-Zeid, E.; Bangalath, H. K.; Stenchikov, G.; El-Fadel, M.

    2017-02-01

    A set of ten downscaling simulations at high spatial resolution (3 km horizontally) were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to generate future climate projections of annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation changes over the Eastern Mediterranean (with a focus on Lebanon). The model was driven with the High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM), running over the whole globe at a resolution of 25 km, under the conditions of two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) (4.5 and 8.5). Each downscaling simulation spanned one year. Two past years (2003 and 2008), also forced by HiRAM without data assimilation, were simulated to evaluate the model's ability to capture the cold and wet (2003) and hot and dry (2008) extremes. The downscaled data were in the range of recent observed climatic variability, and therefore corrected for the cold bias of HiRAM. Eight future years were then selected based on an anomaly score that relies on the mean annual temperature and accumulated precipitation to identify the worst year per decade from a water resources perspective. One hot and dry year per decade, from 2011 to 2050, and per scenario was simulated and compared to the historic 2008 reference. The results indicate that hot and dry future extreme years will be exacerbated and the study area might be exposed to a significant decrease in annual precipitation (rain and snow), reaching up to 30% relative to the current extreme conditions.

  11. Future intensification of hydro-meteorological extremes: downscaling using the weather research and forecasting model

    KAUST Repository

    El-Samra, R.

    2017-02-15

    A set of ten downscaling simulations at high spatial resolution (3 km horizontally) were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to generate future climate projections of annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation changes over the Eastern Mediterranean (with a focus on Lebanon). The model was driven with the High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM), running over the whole globe at a resolution of 25 km, under the conditions of two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) (4.5 and 8.5). Each downscaling simulation spanned one year. Two past years (2003 and 2008), also forced by HiRAM without data assimilation, were simulated to evaluate the model’s ability to capture the cold and wet (2003) and hot and dry (2008) extremes. The downscaled data were in the range of recent observed climatic variability, and therefore corrected for the cold bias of HiRAM. Eight future years were then selected based on an anomaly score that relies on the mean annual temperature and accumulated precipitation to identify the worst year per decade from a water resources perspective. One hot and dry year per decade, from 2011 to 2050, and per scenario was simulated and compared to the historic 2008 reference. The results indicate that hot and dry future extreme years will be exacerbated and the study area might be exposed to a significant decrease in annual precipitation (rain and snow), reaching up to 30% relative to the current extreme conditions.

  12. The characteristics of clusters of weather and extreme climate events in China during the past 50 years

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yang Ping; Hou Wei; Feng Guo-Lin

    2012-01-01

    The pick-up algorithm by the k-th order cluster for the closest distance is used in the fields of weather and climactic events,and the technical terms clustered index and high clustered region are defined to investigate their temporal and spatial distribution characteristics in China during the past 50 years.The results show that the contribution of extreme high-temperature event clusters changed in the period from the 1960s to the 1970s,and its strength was enhanced.On the other hand,the decreasing trend in the clusters of low-temperature extremes can be taken as a signal for warmer winters to follow in the decadal time scale.Torrential rain and heavy rainfall clusters have both been lessened in the past 50 years,and have different cluster characteristics because of their definitions.Regions with high clustered indexes are concentrated in southern China.The spatial evolution of the heavy rainfall clusters reveals that clustered heavy rainfall has played an important role in the rain-belt pattern over China during the last 50 years.

  13. Helicopter Emergency Medical Service Simulation Training in the Extreme: Simulation-based Training in a Mountain Weather Chamber.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pietsch, Urs; Ney, Ludwig; Kreuzer, Oliver; Berner, Armin; Lischke, Volker

    Mountain rescue operations often confront crews with extreme weather conditions. Extremely cold temperatures make standard treatment sometimes difficult or even impossible. It is well-known that most manual tasks, including those involved in mountain rescue operations, are slowed by extremely cold weather. To lessen and improve the decrement in performance of emergency medical treatment caused by cold-induced manual impairment and inadequate medical equipment and supplies, simulation training in a weather chamber, which can produce wind and temperatures up to -22°C, was developed. It provides a promising tool to train the management of complex multidisciplinary settings, thus reducing the occurrence of fatal human and technical errors and increasing the safety for both the patient and the mountain emergency medical service crew. Copyright © 2017 Air Medical Journal Associates. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. EU-INTACT-case studies: Impact of extreme weather on critical Infrastructure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    van Ruiten Kees

    2016-01-01

    One of the case studies is located in the Netherlands and deals with the port of Rotterdam. The situation in Rotterdam is representative for many other main ports in Europe. These ports are all situated in a delta area, near the sea and rivers or canals. Also, these ports are close to urban areas and industrial complexes. Finally, these ports have a multimodal transport infrastructure to and from its hinterland, which is also vulnerable for extreme weather events. The case study is not only significant for the development of methods and tools, but also of direct interest for the region itself. The combination of the National Water safety policy and the best practices from the INTACT cases offer challenges to create better adaptation options and coping capacity to these relatively unforeseen and unexpected impacts based on climate change scenario’s and socio-economic megatrends.

  15. A twenty-first century California observing network for monitoring extreme weather events

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, A.B.; Anderson, M.L.; Dettinger, M.D.; Ralph, F.M.; Hinojosa, A.; Cayan, D.R.; Hartman, R.K.; Reynolds, D.W.; Johnson, L.E.; Schneider, T.L.; Cifelli, R.; Toth, Z.; Gutman, S.I.; King, C.W.; Gehrke, F.; Johnston, P.E.; Walls, C.; Mann, Dorte; Gottas, D.J.; Coleman, T.

    2013-01-01

    During Northern Hemisphere winters, the West Coast of North America is battered by extratropical storms. The impact of these storms is of paramount concern to California, where aging water supply and flood protection infrastructures are challenged by increased standards for urban flood protection, an unusually variable weather regime, and projections of climate change. Additionally, there are inherent conflicts between releasing water to provide flood protection and storing water to meet requirements for water supply, water quality, hydropower generation, water temperature and flow for at-risk species, and recreation. In order to improve reservoir management and meet the increasing demands on water, improved forecasts of precipitation, especially during extreme events, is required. Here we describe how California is addressing their most important and costliest environmental issue – water management – in part, by installing a state-of-the-art observing system to better track the area’s most severe wintertime storms.

  16. Ambulance call-outs and response times in Birmingham and the impact of extreme weather and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornes, John Edward; Fisher, Paul Anthony; Rayment-Bishop, Tracy; Smith, Christopher

    2014-03-01

    Although there has been some research on the impact of extreme weather on the number of ambulance call-out incidents, especially heat waves, there has been very little research on the impact of cold weather on ambulance call-outs and response times. In the UK, there is a target response rate of 75% of life threatening incidents (Category A) that must be responded to within 8 min. This paper compares daily air temperature data with ambulance call-out data for Birmingham over a 5-year period (2007-2011). A significant relationship between extreme weather and increased ambulance call-out and response times can clearly be shown. Both hot and cold weather have a negative impact on response times. During the heat wave of August 2003, the number of ambulance call-outs increased by up to a third. In December 2010 (the coldest December for more than 100 years), the response rate fell below 50% for 3 days in a row (18 December-20 December 2010) with a mean response time of 15 min. For every reduction of air temperature by 1°C there was a reduction of 1.3% in performance. Improved weather forecasting and the take up of adaptation measures, such as the use of winter tyres, are suggested for consideration as management tools to improve ambulance response resilience during extreme weather. Also it is suggested that ambulance response times could be used as part of the syndromic surveillance system at the Health Protection Agency.

  17. Assessing communication as one of the drivers of urban resilience to weather extremes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vicari, Rosa; Schertzer, Daniel

    2016-04-01

    The quality of science and technology communication has become more challenging due to the fact that access to information has hugely increased in terms of variety and quantity. This is a consequence of different factors, among others the development of public relations by research institutes and the pervasive role of digital media (Bucchi 2013; Trench 2008). A key question is how can we objectively assess science and technology communication? Relatively few studies have been dedicated to the definition of pertinent indicators and standards (Neresini and Bucchi 2011). This research aims to understand how communication strategies, addressed to the general public, can optimise the impact of research findings in hydrology for resilient cities and how this can be assessed. Indeed urban resilience to extreme weather events relies both on engineering solutions and increased awareness of urban communities as it was highlighted by the FP7 SMARTesT project and the experiences carried out in the framework of TOMACS (Tokyo Metropolitan Area Convective Studies for Resilient Cities) and CASA (Engineering Research Center for Collaborative Adaptative Sensing of the Atmosphere, supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation). Communication assessment should be included in an alternative approach to evaluate urban resilience to weather extremes. Various qualitative and quantitative methods to monitor communication exist. According to this study, resilience indicators shouldn't only consider communication infrastructures but should also assess communication processes and their interactions with other resilience drivers; furthermore quantitative variables are considered as particularly relevant. Last, but not least, interesting inputs are provided by those case studies that exploit resilience assessment campaigns as an opportunity to practice participatory communication. This research is being led in the framework of the Chair Hydrology for Resilient Cities, co-founded by Veolia

  18. Anomalous, extreme weather disrupts obligate seed dispersal mutualism: snow in a subtropical forest ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Youbing; Newman, Chris; Chen, Jin; Xie, Zongqiang; Macdonald, David W

    2013-09-01

    Ongoing global climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events, impacting population dynamics and community structure. There is, however, a critical lack of case studies considering how climatic perturbations affect biotic interactions. Here, we document how an obligate seed dispersal mutualism was disrupted by a temporally anomalous and meteorologically extreme interlude of unseasonably frigid weather, with accompanying snowstorms, in subtropical China, during January-February 2008. Based on the analysis of 5892 fecal samples (representing six mammalian seed dispersers), this event caused a substantial disruption to the relative seed dispersal function for the raisin tree Hovenia dulcis from prestorm 6.29 (2006) and 11.47 (2007), down to 0.35 during the storm (2008). Crucially, this was due to impacts on mammalian seed dispersers and not due to a paucity of fruit, where 4.63 fruit per branch were available in January 2008, vs. 3.73 in 2006 and 3.58 in 2007. An induced dietary shift occurred among omnivorous carnivores during this event, from the consumption fruit to small mammals and birds, reducing their role in seed dispersal substantially. Induced range shift extinguished the functionality of herbivorous mammals completely, however, seed dispersal function was compensated in part by three omnivorous carnivores during poststorm years, and thus while the mutualism remained intact it was enacted by a narrower assemblage of species, rendering the system more vulnerable to extrinsic perturbations. The storm's extended effects also had anthropogenic corollaries - migrating ungulates becoming exposed to heightened levels of illegal hunting - causing long-term modification to the seed dispersal community and mutualism dynamics. Furthermore, degraded forests proved especially vulnerable to the storm's effects. Considering increasing climate variability and anthropogenic disturbance, the impacts of such massive, aberrant

  19. Outbreaks of Yuzu Dieback in Goheung Area: Possible Causes Deduced from Weather Extremes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kwang-Hyung Kim

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Starting in 2012, severe diebacks usually accompanied by abundant gum exudation have occurred on yuzu trees in Goheung-gun, Jeonnam Province, where severely affected trees were occasionally killed. On-farm surveys were conducted at 30 randomly-selected orchards located at Pungyang-myeon, Goheung-gun, and the resulting disease incidences were 18.5% and 39.6% for dieback and gumming symptoms, respectively. Black spots on branches and leaves also appeared on infected trees showing a typical dieback symptom. Morphological and molecular identifications of the isolated fungal organisms from lesions on the symptomatic leaves and branches revealed that they are identical to Phomopsis citri, known to cause gummosis. In order to find the reason for this sudden epidemic, we investigated the weather conditions that are exclusively distinct from previous years, hypothesizing that certain weather extremes might have caused the severe induction of pre-existing disease for yuzu. There were two extreme temperature drops beyond the yuzu’s cold hardiness limit right after an abnormally-warm-temperature-rise during the winter of 2011–12, which could cause severe frost damage resulting in mechanical injuries and physiological weakness to the affected trees. Furthermore, there was an increased frequency of strong wind events, seven times in 2012 compared to only a few times in the previous years, that could also lead to extensive injuries on branches. In conclusion, we estimated that the possible damages by severe frost and frequent strong wind events during 2012 could cause the yuzu trees to be vulnerable to subsequent fungal infection by providing physical entries and increasing plant susceptibility to infections.

  20. Outbreaks of Yuzu Dieback in Goheung Area: Possible Causes Deduced from Weather Extremes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kwang-Hyung; Kim, Gyoung Hee; Son, Kyeong In; Koh, Young Jin

    2015-09-01

    Starting in 2012, severe diebacks usually accompanied by abundant gum exudation have occurred on yuzu trees in Goheung-gun, Jeonnam Province, where severely affected trees were occasionally killed. On-farm surveys were conducted at 30 randomly-selected orchards located at Pungyang-myeon, Goheung-gun, and the resulting disease incidences were 18.5% and 39.6% for dieback and gumming symptoms, respectively. Black spots on branches and leaves also appeared on infected trees showing a typical dieback symptom. Morphological and molecular identifications of the isolated fungal organisms from lesions on the symptomatic leaves and branches revealed that they are identical to Phomopsis citri, known to cause gummosis. In order to find the reason for this sudden epidemic, we investigated the weather conditions that are exclusively distinct from previous years, hypothesizing that certain weather extremes might have caused the severe induction of pre-existing disease for yuzu. There were two extreme temperature drops beyond the yuzu's cold hardiness limit right after an abnormally-warm-temperature-rise during the winter of 2011-12, which could cause severe frost damage resulting in mechanical injuries and physiological weakness to the affected trees. Furthermore, there was an increased frequency of strong wind events, seven times in 2012 compared to only a few times in the previous years, that could also lead to extensive injuries on branches. In conclusion, we estimated that the possible damages by severe frost and frequent strong wind events during 2012 could cause the yuzu trees to be vulnerable to subsequent fungal infection by providing physical entries and increasing plant susceptibility to infections.

  1. AgroClimate: Simulating and Monitoring the Risk of Extreme Weather Events from a Crop Phenology Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraisse, C.; Pequeno, D.; Staub, C. G.; Perry, C.

    2016-12-01

    Climate variability, particularly the occurrence of extreme weather conditions such as dry spells and heat stress during sensitive crop developmental phases can substantially increase the prospect of reduced crop yields. Yield losses or crop failure risk due to stressful weather conditions vary mainly due to stress severity and exposure time and duration. The magnitude of stress effects is also crop specific, differing in terms of thresholds and adaptation to environmental conditions. To help producers in the Southeast USA mitigate and monitor the risk of crop losses due to extreme weather events we developed a web-based tool that evaluates the risk of extreme weather events during the season taking into account the crop development stages. Producers can enter their plans for the upcoming season in a given field (e.g. crop, variety, planting date, acreage etc.), select or not a specific El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase, and will be presented with the probabilities (ranging from 0 -100%) of extreme weather events occurring during sensitive phases of the growing season for the selected conditions. The DSSAT models CERES-Maize, CROPGRO-Soybean, CROPGRO-Cotton, and N-Wheat phenology models have been translated from FORTRAN to a standalone versions in R language. These models have been tested in collaboration with Extension faculty and producers during the 2016 season and their usefulness for risk mitigation and monitoring evaluated. A companion AgroClimate app was also developed to help producers track and monitor phenology development during the cropping season.

  2. Social Experiments in Tokyo Metropolitan Area Convection Study for Extreme Weather Resilient Cities(TOMACS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsuyoshi, Nakatani; Nakamura, Isao; MIsumi, Ryohei; Shoji, Yoshinori

    2015-04-01

    Introduction TOMACS research project has been started since 2010 July in order to develop the elementary technologies which are required for the adaptation of societies to future global warming impacts that cannot be avoided by the reduction of greenhouse gases. In collaboration with related government institutions, local governments, private companies, and residents, more than 25 organizations and over 100 people are participated. TOMACS consists of the following three research themes: Theme 1: Studies on extreme weather with dense meteorological observations Theme 2: Development of the extreme weather early detection and prediction system Theme 3: Social experiments on extreme weather resilient cities Theme 1 aims to understand the initiation, development, and dissipation processes of convective precipitation in order to clarify the mechanism of localized heavy rainfall which are potential causes of flooding and landslides. Theme 2 aims to establish the monitoring and prediction system of extreme phenomena which can process real-time data from dense meteorological observation networks, advanced X-band radar network systems and predict localized heavy rainfalls and strong winds. Through social experiments, theme 3 aims to establish a method to use information obtained by the monitoring system of extreme phenomena to disaster prevention operations in order to prevent disasters and reduce damage. Social Experiments Toyo University is the core university for the social experiments accomplishment. And following organizations are participating in this research theme: NIED, the Tokyo Metropolitan Research Institute for Environmental Protection (TMRIEP), University of Tokyo, Tokyo Fire Department (TFD), Edogawa Ward in Tokyo, Yokohama City, Fujisawa City and Minamiashigara City in Kanagawa, East Japan Railway Company, Central Japan Railway Company, Obayashi Corporation, and Certified and Accredited Meteorologists of Japan(CAMJ). The social experiments have carried out

  3. The CAULDRON game: Helping decision makers understand extreme weather event attribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walton, P.; Otto, F. E. L.

    2014-12-01

    There is a recognition from academics and stakeholders that climate science has a fundamental role to play in the decision making process, but too frequently there is still uncertainty about what, when, how and why to use it. Stakeholders suggest that it is because the science is presented in an inaccessible manner, while academics suggest it is because the stakeholders do not have the scientific knowledge to understand and apply the science appropriately. What is apparent is that stakeholders need support, and that there is an onus on academia to provide it. This support is even more important with recent developments in climate science, such as extreme weather event attribution. We are already seeing the impacts of extreme weather events around the world causing lost of life and damage to property and infrastructure with current research suggesting that these events could become more frequent and more intense. If this is to be the case then a better understanding of the science will be vital in developing robust adaptation and business planning. The use of games, role playing and simulations to aid learning has long been understood in education but less so as a tool to support stakeholder understanding of climate science. Providing a 'safe' space where participants can actively engage with concepts, ideas and often emotions, can lead to deep understanding that is not possible through more passive mechanisms such as papers and web sites. This paper reports on a game that was developed through a collaboration led by the Red Cross/Red Crescent, University of Oxford and University of Reading to help stakeholders understand the role of weather event attribution in the decision making process. The game has already been played successfully at a number of high profile events including COP 19 and the African Climate Conference. It has also been used with students as part of a postgraduate environmental management course. As well as describing the design principles of the

  4. Future frequencies of extreme weather events in the National Wildlife Refuges of the conterminous U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinuzzi, Sebastian; Allstadt, Andrew J.; Bateman, Brooke L.; Heglund, Patricia J.; Pidgeon, Anna M.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Vavrus, Stephen J.; Radeloff, Volker C.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is a major challenge for managers of protected areas world-wide, and managers need information about future climate conditions within protected areas. Prior studies of climate change effects in protected areas have largely focused on average climatic conditions. However, extreme weather may have stronger effects on wildlife populations and habitats than changes in averages. Our goal was to quantify future changes in the frequency of extreme heat, drought, and false springs, during the avian breeding season, in 415 National Wildlife Refuges in the conterminous United States. We analyzed spatially detailed data on extreme weather frequencies during the historical period (1950–2005) and under different scenarios of future climate change by mid- and late-21st century. We found that all wildlife refuges will likely experience substantial changes in the frequencies of extreme weather, but the types of projected changes differed among refuges. Extreme heat is projected to increase dramatically in all wildlife refuges, whereas changes in droughts and false springs are projected to increase or decrease on a regional basis. Half of all wildlife refuges are projected to see increases in frequency (> 20% higher than the current rate) in at least two types of weather extremes by mid-century. Wildlife refuges in the Southwest and Pacific Southwest are projected to exhibit the fastest rates of change, and may deserve extra attention. Climate change adaptation strategies in protected areas, such as the U.S. wildlife refuges, may need to seriously consider future changes in extreme weather, including the considerable spatial variation of these changes.

  5. Water-borne diseases and extreme weather events in Cambodia: review of impacts and implications of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Grace I; McIver, Lachlan; Kim, Yoonhee; Hashizume, Masahiro; Iddings, Steven; Chan, Vibol

    2014-12-23

    Cambodia is prone to extreme weather events, especially floods, droughts and typhoons. Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of such events. The Cambodian population is highly vulnerable to the impacts of these events due to poverty; malnutrition; agricultural dependence; settlements in flood-prone areas, and public health, governance and technological limitations. Yet little is known about the health impacts of extreme weather events in Cambodia. Given the extremely low adaptive capacity of the population, this is a crucial knowledge gap. A literature review of the health impacts of floods, droughts and typhoons in Cambodia was conducted, with regional and global information reviewed where Cambodia-specific literature was lacking. Water-borne diseases are of particular concern in Cambodia, in the face of extreme weather events and climate change, due to, inter alia, a high pre-existing burden of diseases such as diarrhoeal illness and a lack of improved sanitation infrastructure in rural areas. A time-series analysis under quasi-Poisson distribution was used to evaluate the association between floods and diarrhoeal disease incidence in Cambodian children between 2001 and 2012 in 16 Cambodian provinces. Floods were significantly associated with increased diarrhoeal disease in two provinces, while the analysis conducted suggested a possible protective effect from toilets and piped water. Addressing the specific, local pre-existing vulnerabilities is vital to promoting population health resilience and strengthening adaptive capacity to extreme weather events and climate change in Cambodia.

  6. Water-Borne Diseases and Extreme Weather Events in Cambodia: Review of Impacts and Implications of Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grace I. Davies

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Cambodia is prone to extreme weather events, especially floods, droughts and typhoons. Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of such events. The Cambodian population is highly vulnerable to the impacts of these events due to poverty; malnutrition; agricultural dependence; settlements in flood-prone areas, and public health, governance and technological limitations. Yet little is known about the health impacts of extreme weather events in Cambodia. Given the extremely low adaptive capacity of the population, this is a crucial knowledge gap. A literature review of the health impacts of floods, droughts and typhoons in Cambodia was conducted, with regional and global information reviewed where Cambodia-specific literature was lacking. Water-borne diseases are of particular concern in Cambodia, in the face of extreme weather events and climate change, due to, inter alia, a high pre-existing burden of diseases such as diarrhoeal illness and a lack of improved sanitation infrastructure in rural areas. A time-series analysis under quasi-Poisson distribution was used to evaluate the association between floods and diarrhoeal disease incidence in Cambodian children between 2001 and 2012 in 16 Cambodian provinces. Floods were significantly associated with increased diarrhoeal disease in two provinces, while the analysis conducted suggested a possible protective effect from toilets and piped water. Addressing the specific, local pre-existing vulnerabilities is vital to promoting population health resilience and strengthening adaptive capacity to extreme weather events and climate change in Cambodia.

  7. Impact of radiosonde data over the Arctic ice on forecasting winter extreme weather over mid latitude

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, Kazutoshi; Inoue, Jun; Yamazaki, Akira; Kim, Joo-hong; Maturilli, Marion; Dethloff, Klaus; Hudson, Stephen

    2016-04-01

    In February 2015, the Arctic air outbreak caused extreme cold events and heavy snowfall over the mid latitude, in particular over the North America. During the winter, special radiosonde observations were made on the Norwegian RV Lance around the north of Svalbard under the N-ICE2015 project. We investigated the impact of the radiosonde data on forecasting of a cold extreme event over the eastern North America using the AFES-LETKF experimental ensemble reanalysis version2 (ALERA2) data set. ALERA2 was used as the reference reanalysis (CTL) while the observing-system experiment (OSE) assimilated the same observational data set, except for the radiosonde data obtained by the RV Lance. Using these two reanalysis data as initial values, ensemble forecasting experiments were conducted. Comparing these ensemble forecasts, there were large differences in the position and depth of a predicted tropopause polar vortex. The CTL forecast well predicted the southward intrusion of the polar vortex which pushed a cold air over the eastern North America from the Canadian Archipelago. In the OSE forecast, in contrast, the trough associated with southward intrusion of the polar vortex was weak, which prevented a cold outbreak from Arctic. This result suggested that the radiosonde observations over the central Arctic would improve the skill of weather forecasts during winter.

  8. Research on Trends in Extreme Weather Events and their Effects on Grapevine in Romanian Viticulture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgeta Mihaela Bucur

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this work was to investigate the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in various centers from Romania’s viticultural regions: winter frost, extreme temperatures during the growing season and summer droughts. Winter frost damaging the vine is a significant risk to grape production, mainly in the plains and lowlands to the foothills. The frequency of winter frost damaging the vine has increased during the last decades, in the context of climate change. Also, there has been found a significant increase in the number of hot days (Tmax > 30°C and very hot days (Tmax > 35°C. The evolution of these extreme events was followed in Craiova, Constanta, Bucharest, Timisoara, Cluj-Napoca, Oradea and Iasi, between 1977 and 2015. The long term study (18 years conducted in the experimental plantation of the University of Agronomic Sciences and Veterinary Medicine Bucharest revealed their influence on vine. During the last two decades, there has been registered a trend of increasing the frequency and intensity of winter frost, damaging vine (Tmin 30°C and > 35°C and droughts that adversely affect viticulture, production and quality of grapes and wine. The highest warming trends were observed for northern viticultural regions (Transylvania and Moldavia and for the seaside. Although the intensification of heat waves increases sugar accumulation in the berries, they trigger a significant reduction in grape production and in titrable acidity, requiring corrections and resulting in unbalanced wines. Meanwhile, droughts trigger production decrease. To avoid negative effects on vine, it is necessary to take measures, both on a short, medium and long term.

  9. The potential impacts of climate variability and change on health impacts of extreme weather events in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenough, G; McGeehin, M; Bernard, S M; Trtanj, J; Riad, J; Engelberg, D

    2001-05-01

    Extreme weather events such as precipitation extremes and severe storms cause hundreds of deaths and injuries annually in the United States. Climate change may alter the frequency, timing, intensity, and duration of these events. Increases in heavy precipitation have occurred over the past century. Future climate scenarios show likely increases in the frequency of extreme precipitation events, including precipitation during hurricanes, raising the risk of floods. Frequencies of tornadoes and hurricanes cannot reliably be projected. Injury and death are the direct health impacts most often associated with natural disasters. Secondary effects, mediated by changes in ecologic systems and public health infrastructure, also occur. The health impacts of extreme weather events hinge on the vulnerabilities and recovery capacities of the natural environment and the local population. Relevant variables include building codes, warning systems, disaster policies, evacuation plans, and relief efforts. There are many federal, state, and local government agencies and nongovernmental organizations involved in planning for and responding to natural disasters in the United States. Future research on health impacts of extreme weather events should focus on improving climate models to project any trends in regional extreme events and as a result improve public health preparedness and mitigation. Epidemiologic studies of health effects beyond the direct impacts of disaster will provide a more accurate measure of the full health impacts and will assist in planning and resource allocation.

  10. Communicating and managing change during extreme weather events: promising practices for responding to urgent and emergent climate threats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinker, Tim L

    2013-01-01

    Large-scale weather events in the USA such as hurricanes Sandy, Isaac and Katrina challenge traditional approaches to change communication and management (CCM) before during and after crises. A major challenge (as well as opportunity) is addressing change from the 'whole-community' perspective affecting a spectrum of people, policies, processes, behaviours and outcomes. When CCM is used effectively, one of its fundamental advantages is creating a sense of urgency. This paper looks at optimising communication during extreme weather events, engaging stakeholders, harnessing the power of social media and change, and correlating organisational and individual behaviours and actions. The strategic blend of change management and crisis communication strategies and tactics in CCM is a central feature in the response to the full range of extreme weather scenarios.

  11. Spatial analysis and modeling to assess and map current vulnerability to extreme weather events in the Grijalva - Usumacinta watershed, Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lopez L, D, E-mail: dlopez@centrogeo.org.m [Centro de Investigacion en GeografIa y Geomatica, Ing. Jorge L. Tamayo A.C., Contoy 137, col. Lomas de Padierna, del Tlalpan, Maxico D.F (Mexico)

    2009-11-01

    One of the major concerns over a potential change in climate is that it will cause an increase in extreme weather events. In Mexico, the exposure factors as well as the vulnerability to the extreme weather events have increased during the last three or four decades. In this study spatial analysis and modeling were used to assess and map settlement and crop systems vulnerability to extreme weather events in the Grijalva - Usumacinta watershed. Sensitivity and coping adaptive capacity maps were constructed using decision models; these maps were then combined to produce vulnerability maps. The most vulnerable area in terms of both settlement and crop systems is the highlands, where the sensitivity is high and the adaptive capacity is low. In lowlands, despite the very high sensitivity, the higher adaptive capacity produces only moderate vulnerability. I conclude that spatial analysis and modeling are powerful tools to assess and map vulnerability. These preliminary results can guide the formulation of adaptation policies to an increasing risk of extreme weather events.

  12. Understanding Adaptive Capacity in Real Estate and the Built Environment: Climate Change and Extreme Weather in New York City

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keenan, J.M.

    2016-01-01

    With climate change well underway, cities worldwide are struggling to develop and apply knowledge that will help advance social, environmental and economic adaptation to extreme weather and changing ecologies. Nowhere is this need more pressing than in the design, development and management of the b

  13. Evidence of fuels management and fire weather influencing fire severity in an extreme fire event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lydersen, Jamie M; Collins, Brandon M.; Brooks, Matthew L.; Matchett, John R.; Shive, Kristen L.; Povak, Nicholas A.; Kane, Van R.; Smith, Douglas F.

    2017-01-01

    Following changes in vegetation structure and pattern, along with a changing climate, large wildfire incidence has increased in forests throughout the western U.S. Given this increase there is great interest in whether fuels treatments and previous wildfire can alter fire severity patterns in large wildfires. We assessed the relative influence of previous fuels treatments (including wildfire), fire weather, vegetation and water balance on fire severity in the Rim Fire of 2013. We did this at three different spatial scales to investigate whether the influences on fire severity changed across scales. Both fuels treatments and previous low to moderate severity wildfire reduced the prevalence of high severity fire. In general, areas without recent fuels treatments and areas that previously burned at high severity tended to have a greater proportion of high severity fire in the Rim Fire. Areas treated with prescribed fire, especially when combined with thinning, had the lowest proportions of high severity. Proportion of the landscape burned at high severity was most strongly influenced by fire weather and proportional area previously treated for fuels or burned by low to moderate severity wildfire. The proportion treated needed to effectively reduce the amount of high fire severity fire varied by spatial scale of analysis, with smaller spatial scales requiring a greater proportion treated to see an effect on fire severity. When moderate and high severity fire encountered a previously treated area, fire severity was significantly reduced in the treated area relative to the adjacent untreated area. Our results show that fuels treatments and low to moderate severity wildfire can reduce fire severity in a subsequent wildfire, even when burning under fire growth conditions. These results serve as further evidence that both fuels treatments and lower severity wildfire can increase forest resilience.

  14. The influence of circulation weather patterns at different spatial scales on drought variability in the Iberian Peninsula

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Cristina Russo

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Europe has suffered several extreme weather events which were responsible for considerable ecological and economic losses in the last few decades. In Southern Europe, droughts are one of the most frequent extreme weather events, causing severe damages and various fatalities.The main goal of this study is to determine the role of Circulation Weather Types (CWT on spatial and temporal variability of droughts by means the new multi-scalar Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI. This study aims also to identify the main CWTs associated with winter and summer droughts over different regions of Iberian Peninsula.During the period between 1950 and 2012, the most frequent CWTs were found to be the Anticyclonic (A, Cyclonic (C, North (N and Northeast (NE types. The trend analysis for winter season shows a clear increase of frequency CWTs associated to dry events (A, East and Southeast and a decrease of frequency of C and northern types while in summer a clear decrease of NE is observed.The spatial patterns of correlation between SPEI and CWT show large patterns of negative correlations with winter frequencies of A and eastern weather types, while the reverse occurs with C and western types. This feature is highlighted on a regional approach. The NE type presents negative correlations Central, Northwestern and Southwestern regions during winter and positive correlations in Eastern region during summer. In opposition, the West type presents positive correlations in all regions (except Eastern region during winter and does not present significant correlations during summer. In general, the predominant CWT associated to winter or summer drought conditions differs greatly between regions. The winter droughts are associated mainly with high frequency of E types and low frequency of W types for all areas, while the summer drought in eastern sectors are linked with low frequency of C type, as well as the western regions are related with the N

  15. Evaluating aerosol impacts on Numerical Weather Prediction in two extreme dust and biomass-burning events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remy, Samuel; Benedetti, Angela; Jones, Luke; Razinger, Miha; Haiden, Thomas

    2014-05-01

    The WMO-sponsored Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE) set up a project aimed at understanding the importance of aerosols for numerical weather prediction (NWP). Three cases are being investigated by several NWP centres with aerosol capabilities: a severe dust case that affected Southern Europe in April 2012, a biomass burning case in South America in September 2012, and an extreme pollution event in Beijing (China) which took place in January 2013. At ECMWF these cases are being studied using the MACC-II system with radiatively interactive aerosols. Some preliminary results related to the dust and the fire event will be presented here. A preliminary verification of the impact of the aerosol-radiation direct interaction on surface meteorological parameters such as 2m Temperature and surface winds over the region of interest will be presented. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) verification using AERONET data will also be discussed. For the biomass burning case, the impact of using injection heights estimated by a Plume Rise Model (PRM) for the biomass burning emissions will be presented.

  16. A hypothesis on nanodust as a source of energy for extreme weather events and climate changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berkovich, Simon

    2013-03-01

    There are many phenomena that attract energy, the source of which cannot be unerringly identified. Among those are: excess heat alleged to nuclear processes, sonoluminescence, wire fragmentation under high voltage pulses, diverse biophysical experiences, and some atmospheric effects, like ball lightning and terrestrial gamma rays. Destructive atmospheric events associated with intense air movements, such as hurricanes and tornadoes, expend huge amounts of energy equivalent to very many nuclear bombs. Our paper indicates a possibility for a new source of energy due to the so-called ``hot-clocking'' effect related to the holographic mechanism of the Universe that establishes the exclusive property of nonlocality. This may uncover energy in various unusual appearances, particularly, in the suspected trend of global warming as a direct contribution to the extreme weather events. The surmised clocking impacts from holographic reference beam can reveal themselves through gaseous aerosols and suspended contaminants that may have been increased with human technogenesis. According to recent EPRI report nanopowder for Ni-Pd alloys in the size range of 5-10 nm was found to cause small amounts of excess power, about 4 watt per gram. So, using a minimal norm of contamination (20 micrograms per cubic meter) as an approximate guide, we could estimate that the whole atmosphere would thus generate dozens of terawatts, a contribution comparable to that of the Sun.

  17. Rock-weathering by lichens in Antarctic:patterns and mechanisms

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    Saxicolous species of lichens are able to induce and accelerate weathering of their rocksubstrate, and effects of lichens on substrate can be attributed to both physical and chemical causes.This paper is focused on biotic weathering actions of epilithic and endolithic species on the differentrock types (sandstones and volcanogenic rocks) in Antarctica. The patterns, mechanisms, processes andneoformations of rock-weathering resulting from lichen colonization are expounded in detail.Furthermore, it is pointed out that, for a better understanding of the impacts of lichens onenvironments, the studies on the rate of biotic weathering and the comprehensive involvement of thelichen effects on weathering of natural rocks remain to be carried out in Antarctica.

  18. Insurance as an adaptation strategy for extreme weather events indeveloping countries and economies in transition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mills, Evan

    2004-06-30

    thisperiod, insurance covered four percent of total costs of weather-relateddisasters in emerging markets compared to 40 percent in high-incomecountries. While relatively small, insurance payments to people inemerging markets associated with these losses were three-times themagnitude of international aid. The potential for changes in weatherpatterns, including both average conditions and extreme events, wouldlikely raise the demand for insurance whether the changes area resultnatural variability or human-induced climate change. At the same time,increases in weather-related damage create uncertainties and challengeinsurers ability and willingness to assume or affordably price these newrisks. Sustainable development can contribute to managing and maintainingthe insurability of these risks and thereby reduce the need forindividuals and governments to absorb the costs.Because of themulti-national structure of the insurance a

  19. Predictability of extreme weather events for NE U.S.: improvement of the numerical prediction using a Bayesian regression approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, J.; Astitha, M.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Hartman, B.; Kallos, G. B.

    2015-12-01

    Weather prediction accuracy has become very important for the Northeast U.S. given the devastating effects of extreme weather events in the recent years. Weather forecasting systems are used towards building strategies to prevent catastrophic losses for human lives and the environment. Concurrently, weather forecast tools and techniques have evolved with improved forecast skill as numerical prediction techniques are strengthened by increased super-computing resources. In this study, we examine the combination of two state-of-the-science atmospheric models (WRF and RAMS/ICLAMS) by utilizing a Bayesian regression approach to improve the prediction of extreme weather events for NE U.S. The basic concept behind the Bayesian regression approach is to take advantage of the strengths of two atmospheric modeling systems and, similar to the multi-model ensemble approach, limit their weaknesses which are related to systematic and random errors in the numerical prediction of physical processes. The first part of this study is focused on retrospective simulations of seventeen storms that affected the region in the period 2004-2013. Optimal variances are estimated by minimizing the root mean square error and are applied to out-of-sample weather events. The applicability and usefulness of this approach are demonstrated by conducting an error analysis based on in-situ observations from meteorological stations of the National Weather Service (NWS) for wind speed and wind direction, and NCEP Stage IV radar data, mosaicked from the regional multi-sensor for precipitation. The preliminary results indicate a significant improvement in the statistical metrics of the modeled-observed pairs for meteorological variables using various combinations of the sixteen events as predictors of the seventeenth. This presentation will illustrate the implemented methodology and the obtained results for wind speed, wind direction and precipitation, as well as set the research steps that will be

  20. The demographic impact of extreme events: stochastic weather drives survival and population dynamics in a long-lived seabird.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frederiksen, M; Daunt, F; Harris, M P; Wanless, S

    2008-09-01

    1. Most scenarios for future climate change predict increased variability and thus increased frequency of extreme weather events. To predict impacts of climate change on wild populations, we need to understand whether this translates into increased variability in demographic parameters, which would lead to reduced population growth rates even without a change in mean parameter values. This requires robust estimates of temporal process variance, for example in survival, and identification of weather covariates linked to interannual variability. 2. The European shag Phalacrocorax aristotelis (L.) shows unusually large variability in population size, and large-scale mortality events have been linked to winter gales. We estimated first-year, second-year and adult survival based on 43 years of ringing and dead recovery data from the Isle of May, Scotland, using recent methods to quantify temporal process variance and identify aspects of winter weather linked to survival. 3. Survival was highly variable for all age groups, and for second-year and adult birds process variance declined strongly when the most extreme year was excluded. Survival in these age groups was low in winters with strong onshore winds and high rainfall. Variation in first-year survival was not related to winter weather, and process variance, although high, was less affected by extreme years. A stochastic population model showed that increasing process variance in survival would lead to reduced population growth rate and increasing probability of extinction. 4. As in other cormorants, shag plumage is only partially waterproof, presumably an adaptation to highly efficient underwater foraging. We speculate that this adaptation may make individuals vulnerable to rough winter weather, leading to boom-and-bust dynamics, where rapid population growth under favourable conditions allows recovery from periodic large-scale weather-related mortality. 5. Given that extreme weather events are predicted to become

  1. Variation of rain intensity and drop size distribution with General Weather Patterns (GWL)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghada, Wael; Buras, Allan; Lüpke, Marvin; Menzel, Annette

    2017-04-01

    Short-duration rainfall extremes may cause flash floods in certain catchments (e.g. cities or fast responding watersheds) and pose a great risk to affected communities. In order to predict their occurrence under future climate change scenarios, their link to atmospheric circulation patterns needs to be well understood. We used a comprehensive data set of meteorological data (temperature, rain gauge precipitation) and precipitation spectra measured by a disdrometer (OTT PARSIVEL) between October 2008 and June 2010 at Freising, southern Germany. For the 21 months of the study period, we integrated the disdrometer spectra over intervals of 10 minutes to correspond to the temporal resolution of the weather station data and discarded measurements with air temperatures below 0°C. Daily General Weather Patterns ("Großwetterlagen", GWL) were downloaded from the website of the German Meteorological Service. Out of the 29 GWL, 14 were included in the analysis for which we had at least 12 rain events during our study period. For the definition of a rain event, we tested different lengths of minimum inter-event times and chose 30 min as a good compromise between number and length of resulting events; rain events started when more than 0.001 mm/h (sensitivity of the disdrometer) were recorded. The length of the rain events ranged between 10 min and 28 h (median 130 min) with the maximum rain intensity recorded being 134 mm/h on 24-07-2009. Seasonal differences were identified for rain event average intensities and maximum intensities per event. The influence of GWL on rain properties such as rain intensity and drop size distribution per time step and per event was investigated based on the above mentioned rain event definition. Pairwise Wilcoxon-tests revealed that higher rain intensity and larger drops were associated with the GWL "Low over the British Isles" (TB), whereas low rain intensities and less drops per interval were associated with the GWL "High over Central Europe

  2. Hypothetical scenario exercises to improve planning and readiness for drinking water quality management during extreme weather events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deere, Daniel; Leusch, Frederic D L; Humpage, Andrew; Cunliffe, David; Khan, Stuart J

    2017-03-15

    Two hypothetical scenario exercises were designed and conducted to reflect the increasingly extreme weather-related challenges faced by water utilities as the global climate changes. The first event was based on an extreme flood scenario. The second scenario involved a combination of weather events, including a wild forest fire ('bushfire') followed by runoff due to significant rainfall. For each scenario, a panel of diverse personnel from water utilities and relevant agencies (e.g. health departments) formed a hypothetical water utility and associated regulatory body to manage water quality following the simulated extreme weather event. A larger audience participated by asking questions and contributing key insights. Participants were confronted with unanticipated developments as the simulated scenarios unfolded, introduced by a facilitator. Participants were presented with information that may have challenged their conventional experiences regarding operational procedures in order to identify limitations in current procedures, assumptions, and readily available information. The process worked toward the identification of a list of specific key lessons for each event. At the conclusion of each simulation a facilitated discussion was used to establish key lessons of value to water utilities in preparing them for similar future extreme events. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Impact of phytopathogen infection and extreme weather stress on internalization of Salmonella Typhimurium in lettuce.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Chongtao; Lee, Cheonghoon; Nangle, Ed; Li, Jianrong; Gardner, David; Kleinhenz, Matthew; Lee, Jiyoung

    2014-01-03

    Internalization of human pathogens, common in many types of fresh produce, is a threat to human health since the internalized pathogens cannot be fully inactivated/removed by washing with water or sanitizers. Given that pathogen internalization can be affected by many environmental factors, this study was conducted to investigate the influence of two types of plant stress on the internalization of Salmonella Typhimurium in iceberg lettuce during pre-harvest. The stresses were: abiotic (water stress induced by extreme weather events) and biotic (phytopathogen infection by lettuce mosaic virus [LMV]). Lettuce with and without LMV infection were purposefully contaminated with green fluorescence protein-labeled S. Typhimurium on the leaf surfaces. Lettuce was also subjected to water stress conditions (drought and storm) which were simulated by irrigating with different amounts of water. The internalized S. Typhimurium in the different parts of the lettuce were quantified by plate count and real-time quantitative PCR and confirmed with a laser scanning confocal microscope. Salmonella internalization occurred under the conditions outlined above; however internalization levels were not significantly affected by water stress alone. In contrast, the extent of culturable S. Typhimurium internalized in the leafy part of the lettuce decreased when infected with LMV under water stress conditions and contaminated with high levels of S. Typhimurium. On the other hand, LMV-infected lettuce showed a significant increase in the levels of culturable bacteria in the roots. In conclusion, internalization was observed under all experimental conditions when the lettuce surface was contaminated with S. Typhimurium. However, the extent of internalization was only affected by water stress when lettuce was infected with LMV.

  4. Decision-support tools for Extreme Weather and Climate Events in the Northeast United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, S.; Lowery, M.; Whelchel, A.

    2013-12-01

    Decision-support tools were assessed for the 2013 National Climate Assessment technical input document, "Climate Change in the Northeast, A Sourcebook". The assessment included tools designed to generate and deliver actionable information to assist states and highly populated urban and other communities in assessment of climate change vulnerability and risk, quantification of effects, and identification of adaptive strategies in the context of adaptation planning across inter-annual, seasonal and multi-decadal time scales. State-level adaptation planning in the Northeast has generally relied on qualitative vulnerability assessments by expert panels and stakeholders, although some states have undertaken initiatives to develop statewide databases to support vulnerability assessments by urban and local governments, and state agencies. The devastation caused by Superstorm Sandy in October 2012 has raised awareness of the potential for extreme weather events to unprecedented levels and created urgency for action, especially in coastal urban and suburban communities that experienced pronounced impacts - especially in New Jersey, New York and Connecticut. Planning approaches vary, but any adaptation and resiliency planning process must include the following: - Knowledge of the probable change in a climate variable (e.g., precipitation, temperature, sea-level rise) over time or that the climate variable will attain a certain threshold deemed to be significant; - Knowledge of intensity and frequency of climate hazards (past, current or future events or conditions with potential to cause harm) and their relationship with climate variables; - Assessment of climate vulnerabilities (sensitive resources, infrastructure or populations exposed to climate-related hazards); - Assessment of relative risks to vulnerable resources; - Identification and prioritization of adaptive strategies to address risks. Many organizations are developing decision-support tools to assist in the urban

  5. Evaluating effects of climate variability, extreme weather events and thinning on carbon and water exchanges in managed temperate forests in eastern Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arain, M.; Brodeur, J. J.; Trant, J.; Thorne, R.; Peichl, M.; Kula, M.; Parsaud, A.; Khader, R.

    2013-12-01

    In this study the impact of climate variability and extreme weather events on gross ecosystem productivity (GEP), ecosystem respiration (RE), net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and evapotranspiration (E) is evaluated in an age-sequence (74-, 39- and 11-years old) of temperate pine (Pinus strobus L.) forests, north of Lake Erie in southern Ontario, Canada using ten years (2003-2012) of eddy covariance flux and meteorological data. Fluxes from conifer stands are also compared with measurements made in an 80-year-old deciduous (Carolinian) forest, established in 2012. All four sites are managed forests and part of the Turkey Point Flux Station and global Fluxnet. Ten-year mean NEP values were 169 (75 to 312), 371 (305 to 456, over 2008-2012) and 141 (-10 to 420) g C/m2/year in the 74-, 39-, and 11-year-old stand, respectively, while mean NEP in the 80-year-old deciduous stand was 286 g C/m2/year in 2012. This region is affected by low frequency climate oscillations, such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The study period experienced four distinct extreme weather patterns: warm and dry springs in 2005 and 2012, extremely wet and warm summer in 2006, a summer drought in 2007 and warm summers in 2010 and 2012. In February-March 2012, the 74-year-old stand was selectively thinned and approximately 30% of trees were removed to improve light and water availability and stimulate growth of remaining trees. Thinning and warm/dry spring reduced NEP in the first post-thinning year, with mean annual NEP of 75 g C/m2/year in 2012. Increased supply of dead organic matter and warm temperatures in 2012 increased RE much more than GEP, resulting in lower annual NEP. Heat stress and drought in spring of 2005 reduced NEP of the 74-year stand to 78 g C/m2/year. The impact of this extreme weather event on NEP was similar to that observed in 2012 when stand experienced a drastic structural change, dry spring and warm temperatures throughout the

  6. A probabilistic risk assessment for the vulnerability of the European carbon cycle to weather extremes: the ecosystem perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rolinski, S.; Rammig, A.; Walz, A.; von Bloh, W.; van Oijen, M.; Thonicke, K.

    2015-03-01

    Extreme weather events are likely to occur more often under climate change and the resulting effects on ecosystems could lead to a further acceleration of climate change. But not all extreme weather events lead to extreme ecosystem response. Here, we focus on hazardous ecosystem behaviour and identify coinciding weather conditions. We use a simple probabilistic risk assessment based on time series of ecosystem behaviour and climate conditions. Given the risk assessment terminology, vulnerability and risk for the previously defined hazard are estimated on the basis of observed hazardous ecosystem behaviour. We apply this approach to extreme responses of terrestrial ecosystems to drought, defining the hazard as a negative net biome productivity over a 12-month period. We show an application for two selected sites using data for 1981-2010 and then apply the method to the pan-European scale for the same period, based on numerical modelling results (LPJmL for ecosystem behaviour; ERA-Interim data for climate). Our site-specific results demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method, using the SPEI to describe the climate condition. The site in Spain provides an example of vulnerability to drought because the expected value of the SPEI is 0.4 lower for hazardous than for non-hazardous ecosystem behaviour. In northern Germany, on the contrary, the site is not vulnerable to drought because the SPEI expectation values imply wetter conditions in the hazard case than in the non-hazard case. At the pan-European scale, ecosystem vulnerability to drought is calculated in the Mediterranean and temperate region, whereas Scandinavian ecosystems are vulnerable under conditions without water shortages. These first model-based applications indicate the conceptual advantages of the proposed method by focusing on the identification of critical weather conditions for which we observe hazardous ecosystem behaviour in the analysed data set. Application of the method to empirical time

  7. Designing Resilient and Productive Grasses with Plasticity to Extreme Weather Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loka, D.; Humphreys, M.; Gwyn Jones, D.; Scullion, J.; Doonan, J.; Gasior, D.; Harper, J.; Farrell, M.; Kingston-Smith, A.; Dodd, R.; Chadwick, D.; Hill, P.; Robinson, D.; Jones, D.

    2016-12-01

    Grasslands occupy more than 70% of the world's agricultural land and are major providers of healthy feed for livestock and for ecosystem services. Global warming is projected to increase the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events such as drought and flooding and will reduce persistency of currently productive but stress sensitive forage grass varieties, thereby challenging global food security and compromising on their existing ecosystem functionality. New perennial grass varieties, tolerant to the onsets of more than one abiotic stresses, are required in order to achieve sustainable grassland production and function over years under adverse environmental conditions. Identifying and selecting reliable morphological and physiological traits associated with increased resistance to multiple stress conditions is a prerequisite to ensure future grasslands resilience. The objectives of our study were to select from diverse and novel Festulolium (ryegrass spp. x fescue spp. hybrids) grass populations capable of providing optimal combinations of good forage production together with resilience to multiple stresses and to monitor morphological and physiological responses under multiple stress conditions. The grasses were: Festulolium variety Prior (L. perenne x F. pratensis), shown to alter soil structure and hydrology to mitigate run-off and flooding; two advanced breeding populations of diploid L. perenne with genes for drought tolerance derived from the Mediterranean fescue species F. arundinacea and F. glaucescens; two tetraploid hybrid populations involving L. perenne in combination with F. glaucescens and F. mairei (from North Africa), respectively. As controls, Festulolium variety AberNiche and L. perenne variety AberWolf varieties, were used. Treatments consisted of: A) Control; plants maintained at optimum conditions, B) Flood; plants were flooded for 6 weeks followed by a 4-week recovery, C) Drought; plants received limited quantity of water for 12 weeks

  8. Changing patterns in rainfall extremes in South Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamruzzaman, Mohammad; Beecham, Simon; Metcalfe, Andrew V.

    2017-02-01

    Daily rainfall records from seven stations in South Australia, with record lengths from 50 to 137 years and a common period of 36 years, are investigated for evidence of changes in the statistical distribution of annual total and annual average of monthly daily maxima. In addition, the monthly time series of monthly totals and monthly daily maxima are analysed for three stations for which records exceed 100 years. The monthly series show seasonality and provide evidence of a reduction in rainfall when the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is negative, which is modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). However, the monthly series do not provide any evidence of a consistent trend or of any changes in the seasonal pattern. Multivariate analyses, typically used in statistical quality control (SQC), are applied to time series of yearly totals and of averages of the 12 monthly daily maxima, during the common 36-year period. Although there are some outlying points in the charts, there is no evidence of any trend or step changes. However, some supplementary permutation tests do provide weak evidence of an increase of variability of rainfall measures. Furthermore, a factor analysis does provide some evidence of a change in the spatial structure of extremes. The variability of a factor which represents the difference between extremes in the Adelaide Hills and the plains increases in the second 18 years relative to the first 18 years. There is also some evidence that the mean of this factor has increased in absolute magnitude.

  9. Weather patterns as a downscaling tool - evaluating their skill in stratifying local climate variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murawski, Aline; Bürger, Gerd; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Merz, Bruno

    2016-04-01

    The use of a weather pattern based approach for downscaling of coarse, gridded atmospheric data, as usually obtained from the output of general circulation models (GCM), allows for investigating the impact of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on fluxes and state variables of the hydrological cycle such as e.g. on runoff in large river catchments. Here we aim at attributing changes in high flows in the Rhine catchment to anthropogenic climate change. Therefore we run an objective classification scheme (simulated annealing and diversified randomisation - SANDRA, available from the cost733 classification software) on ERA20C reanalyses data and apply the established classification to GCMs from the CMIP5 project. After deriving weather pattern time series from GCM runs using forcing from all greenhouse gases (All-Hist) and using natural greenhouse gas forcing only (Nat-Hist), a weather generator will be employed to obtain climate data time series for the hydrological model. The parameters of the weather pattern classification (i.e. spatial extent, number of patterns, classification variables) need to be selected in a way that allows for good stratification of the meteorological variables that are of interest for the hydrological modelling. We evaluate the skill of the classification in stratifying meteorological data using a multi-variable approach. This allows for estimating the stratification skill for all meteorological variables together, not separately as usually done in existing similar work. The advantage of the multi-variable approach is to properly account for situations where e.g. two patterns are associated with similar mean daily temperature, but one pattern is dry while the other one is related to considerable amounts of precipitation. Thus, the separation of these two patterns would not be justified when considering temperature only, but is perfectly reasonable when accounting for precipitation as well. Besides that, the weather patterns derived from

  10. Interaction effects between weather and space use on harvesting effort and patterns in red deer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivrud, Inger M; Meisingset, Erling L; Loe, Leif E; Mysterud, Atle

    2014-12-01

    Most cervid populations in Europe and North America are managed through selective harvesting, often with age- and sex-specific quotas, with a large influence on the population growth rate. Less well understood is how prevailing weather affects harvesting selectivity and off-take indirectly through changes in individual animal and hunter behavior. The behavior and movement patterns of hunters and their prey are expected to be influenced by weather conditions. Furthermore, habitat characteristics like habitat openness are also known to affect movement patterns and harvesting vulnerability, but how much such processes affect harvest composition has not been quantified. We use harvest data from red deer (Cervus elaphus) to investigate how weather and habitat characteristics affect behavioral decisions of red deer and their hunters throughout the hunting season. More specifically, we look at how sex and age class, temperature, precipitation, moon phase, and day of week affect the probability of being harvested on farmland (open habitat), hunter effort, and the overall harvest numbers. Moon phase and day of week were the strongest predictors of hunter effort and harvest numbers, with higher effort during full moon and weekends, and higher numbers during full moon. In general, the effect of fall weather conditions and habitat characteristics on harvest effort and numbers varied through the season. Yearlings showed the highest variation in the probability of being harvested on farmland through the season, but there was no effect of sex. Our study is among the first to highlight that weather may affect harvesting patterns and off-take indirectly through animal and hunter behavior, but the interaction effects of weather and space use on hunter behavior are complicated, and seem less important than hunter preference and quotas in determining hunter selection and harvest off-take. The consideration of hunter behavior is therefore key when forming management rules for

  11. Fluoride pollution of atmospheric precipitation and its relationship with air circulation and weather patterns (Wielkopolski National Park, Poland).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walna, Barbara; Kurzyca, Iwona; Bednorz, Ewa; Kolendowicz, Leszek

    2013-07-01

    A 2-year study (2010-2011) of fluorides in atmospheric precipitation in the open area and in throughfall in Wielkopolski National Park (west-central Poland) showed their high concentrations, reaching a maximum value of 2 mg/l under the tree crowns. These high values indicate substantial deposition of up to 52 mg/m(2)/year. In 2011, over 51% of open area precipitation was characterized by fluoride concentration higher than 0.10 mg/l, and in throughfall such concentrations were found in more than 86% of events. In 2010, a strong connection was evident between fluoride and acid-forming ions, and in 2011, a correlation between phosphate and nitrite ions was seen. Analysis of available data on F(-) concentrations in the air did not show an unequivocal effect on F(-) concentrations in precipitation. To find reasons for and source areas of high fluoride pollution, the cases of extreme fluoride concentration in rainwater were related to atmospheric circulation and weather patterns. Weather conditions on days of extreme pollution were determined by movement of weather fronts over western Poland, or by small cyclonic centers with meteorological fronts. Macroscale air advection over the sampling site originated in the western quadrant (NW, W, and SW), particularly in the middle layers of the troposphere (2,500-5,000 m a.s.l.). Such directions indicate western Poland and Germany as possible sources of the pollution. At the same time in the lower troposphere, air inflow was frequently from the north, showing short distance transport from local emitters, and from the agglomeration of Poznań.

  12. Evaluation of environmental fate and sinks of PCDD/Fs during specific extreme weather events in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chi, Kai Hsien; Lin, Chuan-Yao; Ou Yang, Chang-Feng; Hsu, Shih Chieh; Chen, Ya Fang; Luo, Shangde; Kao, Shuh Ji

    2013-11-01

    Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) are persistent organic pollutants (POPs) that are formed and released unintentionally from anthropogenic sources. The high persistence of PCDD/Fs results in the concentrations of these contaminants in environment decreasing only very slowly. Two transport pathways, air and water, carry PCDD/Fs into all regions of the world. Recently, more frequent extreme weather events, such as storms and floods, have been projected to occur as a result of global warming. Extreme weather events have a documented impact on the remobilization and subsequent bioavailability of POPs. In this study, three specific episodes, namely winter monsoon, southeast biomass burning and tropical cyclone (typhoon) events, which influence the environmental fate and transport of PCDD/Fs in Taiwan, were evaluated based on a climate change scenario. During the winter (northeast) monsoon period, the temperature and relative humidity observed in northern Taiwan decreases sharply. During this time, the quantity of PCDD/Fs adsorbed onto suspended particles, as observed at background sites, was found to increase from 300 ± 127 to 630 ± 115 pg I-TEQ g-TSP-1, which is even higher than that measured in Taipei City (438 ± 80 pg I-TEQ g-TSP-1). Hence, the winter monsoon not only brings cold air but also transports air pollutants and dust over long distances from mainland China to Taiwan. During the 2010 Southeast Asia biomass burning events (2010/3/22-3/28), the level of atmospheric PCDD/Fs were measured in central Taiwan (Mt. Lulin) and in the source region of northern Thailand (Chiang Mai); this revealed that the variations in atmospheric PCDD/F concentrations at these two sites followed a similar pattern. On 25 March 2010, the atmospheric PCDD/F concentration increased dramatically from 1.43 to 6.09 fg I-TEQ m-3 at Mt. Lulin and from 7.64 to 12.1 fg I-TEQ m-3 in northern Thailand. However, the atmospheric PCDD

  13. Sensitivities of crop models to extreme weather conditions during flowering period demonstrated for maize and winter wheat in Austria

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eitzinger, J; Thaler, S; Schmid, E;

    2013-01-01

    The objective of the present study was to compare the performance of seven different, widely applied crop models in predicting heat and drought stress effects. The study was part of a recent suite of model inter-comparisons initiated at European level and constitutes a component that has been...... lacking in the analysis of sources of uncertainties in crop models used to study the impacts of climate change. There was a specific focus on the sensitivity of models for winter wheat and maize to extreme weather conditions (heat and drought) during the short but critical period of 2 weeks after...... or minimum tillage. Since no comprehensive field experimental data sets were available, a relative comparison of simulated grain yields and soil moisture contents under defined weather scenarios with modified temperatures and precipitation was performed for a 2-week period after flowering. The results may...

  14. Decay patterns of brick wall in atmospheric environment: a possible analogue to rock weathering?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prikryl, Richard; Weishauptová, Zuzana; Přikrylová, Jiřina; Jablonský, Jakub

    2015-04-01

    This study is focused on the decay of bricks exposed in enclosing wall of the Regional maternal hospital in Prague city centre (Czech Republic). The hospital, listed as a Czech architectural monument, has been constructed from locally produced bricks in neo-Gothic style in the period of 1867-1875. The bricks of the enclosing wall show sequence of decay patterns that resemble weathering forms observable on monuments built of natural stone. This study aims to study the observed decay patterns by means of in situ mapping and by analyses of decayed material (optical microscopy, SEM/EDS, X-ray diffraction, Hg-porosimetry, water soluble salts analysis) and to interpret them based on the phase composition and other properties of bricks. Finally, the decay patterns of studied brick wall are compared to known weathering sequences on porous rocks (both on natural outcrops and on artistic monuments).

  15. Whether the weather drives patterns of endemic amphibian chytridiomycosis: a pathogen proliferation approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Kris A; Skerratt, Lee F; Garland, Stephen; Kriticos, Darren; McCallum, Hamish

    2013-01-01

    The pandemic amphibian disease chytridiomycosis often exhibits strong seasonality in both prevalence and disease-associated mortality once it becomes endemic. One hypothesis that could explain this temporal pattern is that simple weather-driven pathogen proliferation (population growth) is a major driver of chytridiomycosis disease dynamics. Despite various elaborations of this hypothesis in the literature for explaining amphibian declines (e.g., the chytrid thermal-optimum hypothesis) it has not been formally tested on infection patterns in the wild. In this study we developed a simple process-based model to simulate the growth of the pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) under varying weather conditions to provide an a priori test of a weather-linked pathogen proliferation hypothesis for endemic chytridiomycosis. We found strong support for several predictions of the proliferation hypothesis when applied to our model species, Litoria pearsoniana, sampled across multiple sites and years: the weather-driven simulations of pathogen growth potential (represented as a growth index in the 30 days prior to sampling; GI30) were positively related to both the prevalence and intensity of Bd infections, which were themselves strongly and positively correlated. In addition, a machine-learning classifier achieved ~72% success in classifying positive qPCR results when utilising just three informative predictors 1) GI30, 2) frog body size and 3) rain on the day of sampling. Hence, while intrinsic traits of the individuals sampled (species, size, sex) and nuisance sampling variables (rainfall when sampling) influenced infection patterns obtained when sampling via qPCR, our results also strongly suggest that weather-linked pathogen proliferation plays a key role in the infection dynamics of endemic chytridiomycosis in our study system. Predictive applications of the model include surveillance design, outbreak preparedness and response, climate change scenario modelling and

  16. Whether the weather drives patterns of endemic amphibian chytridiomycosis: a pathogen proliferation approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kris A Murray

    Full Text Available The pandemic amphibian disease chytridiomycosis often exhibits strong seasonality in both prevalence and disease-associated mortality once it becomes endemic. One hypothesis that could explain this temporal pattern is that simple weather-driven pathogen proliferation (population growth is a major driver of chytridiomycosis disease dynamics. Despite various elaborations of this hypothesis in the literature for explaining amphibian declines (e.g., the chytrid thermal-optimum hypothesis it has not been formally tested on infection patterns in the wild. In this study we developed a simple process-based model to simulate the growth of the pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd under varying weather conditions to provide an a priori test of a weather-linked pathogen proliferation hypothesis for endemic chytridiomycosis. We found strong support for several predictions of the proliferation hypothesis when applied to our model species, Litoria pearsoniana, sampled across multiple sites and years: the weather-driven simulations of pathogen growth potential (represented as a growth index in the 30 days prior to sampling; GI30 were positively related to both the prevalence and intensity of Bd infections, which were themselves strongly and positively correlated. In addition, a machine-learning classifier achieved ~72% success in classifying positive qPCR results when utilising just three informative predictors 1 GI30, 2 frog body size and 3 rain on the day of sampling. Hence, while intrinsic traits of the individuals sampled (species, size, sex and nuisance sampling variables (rainfall when sampling influenced infection patterns obtained when sampling via qPCR, our results also strongly suggest that weather-linked pathogen proliferation plays a key role in the infection dynamics of endemic chytridiomycosis in our study system. Predictive applications of the model include surveillance design, outbreak preparedness and response, climate change scenario

  17. Coupled hydro-meteorological modelling on a HPC platform for high-resolution extreme weather impact study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Dehua; Echendu, Shirley; Xuan, Yunqing; Webster, Mike; Cluckie, Ian

    2016-11-01

    Impact-focused studies of extreme weather require coupling of accurate simulations of weather and climate systems and impact-measuring hydrological models which themselves demand larger computer resources. In this paper, we present a preliminary analysis of a high-performance computing (HPC)-based hydrological modelling approach, which is aimed at utilizing and maximizing HPC power resources, to support the study on extreme weather impact due to climate change. Here, four case studies are presented through implementation on the HPC Wales platform of the UK mesoscale meteorological Unified Model (UM) with high-resolution simulation suite UKV, alongside a Linux-based hydrological model, Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE). The results of this study suggest that the coupled hydro-meteorological model was still able to capture the major flood peaks, compared with the conventional gauge- or radar-driving forecast, but with the added value of much extended forecast lead time. The high-resolution rainfall estimation produced by the UKV performs similarly to that of radar rainfall products in the first 2-3 days of tested flood events, but the uncertainties particularly increased as the forecast horizon goes beyond 3 days. This study takes a step forward to identify how the online mode approach can be used, where both numerical weather prediction and the hydrological model are executed, either simultaneously or on the same hardware infrastructures, so that more effective interaction and communication can be achieved and maintained between the models. But the concluding comments are that running the entire system on a reasonably powerful HPC platform does not yet allow for real-time simulations, even without the most complex and demanding data simulation part.

  18. Impacts of Extreme Hot Weather Events on Electricity Consumption in Baden-Wuerttemberg

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mimler, S.

    2009-04-01

    Changes in electricity consumption due to hot weather events were examined for the German federal state Baden-Württemberg. The analysis consists of three major steps: Firstly, an analysis of the media coverage on the hot summer of 2003 gives direct and indirect information about changes in electricity demand due to changes in consumption patterns. On the one hand there was an overall increase in electricity demand due to the more frequent use of air conditionings, fans, cooling devices and water pumps. On the other hand shifts in electricity consumption took place due to modifications in daily routines: if possible, core working times were scheduled earlier, visitor streams in gastronomy and at events shifted from noon to evening hours, a temporal shifting of purchases took place in early morning or evening hours, and an increased night-activity was documented by a higher number of police operations due to noise disturbances. In a second step, some of the findings of the media analysis were quantified for households in the city region of Karlsruhe. For the chosen electric device groups refrigerators, mini-coolers, air conditionings, fans and electric stoves the difference between the consumption on a hot summer day and a normal summer day was computed. For this purpose, assumptions had to be made on the share of affected households, affected devices or usage patterns. These assumptions were summarized into three scenarios on low, medium and high heat induced changes in electricity consumption. In total, the quantification resulted in a range of about 7.5 to 9.2 % of heat-induced over-consumption related to the average amount of electrical load that is normally provided to Karlsruhe households on a summer's day. A third analysis of summer load curves aimed at testing the following hypotheses derived from the media analysis regarding changes in every-day routines and their effects on shifts in load profiles. To test the hypotheses, correlation tests were applied. (1

  19. Identifying Patterns in the Weather of Europe for Source Term Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klampanos, Iraklis; Pappas, Charalambos; Andronopoulos, Spyros; Davvetas, Athanasios; Ikonomopoulos, Andreas; Karkaletsis, Vangelis

    2017-04-01

    During emergencies that involve the release of hazardous substances into the atmosphere the potential health effects on the human population and the environment are of primary concern. Such events have occurred in the past, most notably involving radioactive and toxic substances. Examples of radioactive release events include the Chernobyl accident in 1986, as well as the more recent Fukushima Daiichi accident in 2011. Often, the release of dangerous substances in the atmosphere is detected at locations different from the release origin. The objective of this work is the rapid estimation of such unknown sources shortly after the detection of dangerous substances in the atmosphere, with an initial focus on nuclear or radiological releases. Typically, after the detection of a radioactive substance in the atmosphere indicating the occurrence of an unknown release, the source location is estimated via inverse modelling. However, depending on factors such as the spatial resolution desired, traditional inverse modelling can be computationally time-consuming. This is especially true for cases where complex topography and weather conditions are involved and can therefore be problematic when timing is critical. Making use of machine learning techniques and the Big Data Europe platform1, our approach moves the bulk of the computation before any such event taking place, therefore allowing for rapid initial, albeit rougher, estimations regarding the source location. Our proposed approach is based on the automatic identification of weather patterns within the European continent. Identifying weather patterns has long been an active research field. Our case is differentiated by the fact that it focuses on plume dispersion patterns and these meteorological variables that affect dispersion the most. For a small set of recurrent weather patterns, we simulate hypothetical radioactive releases from a pre-known set of nuclear reactor locations and for different substance and temporal

  20. Development of heat and drought related extreme weather events and their effect on winter wheat yields in Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lüttger, Andrea B.; Feike, Til

    2017-02-01

    Climate change constitutes a major challenge for high productivity in wheat, the most widely grown crop in Germany. Extreme weather events including dry spells and heat waves, which negatively affect wheat yields, are expected to aggravate in the future. It is crucial to improve the understanding of the spatiotemporal development of such extreme weather events and the respective crop-climate relationships in Germany. Thus, the present study is a first attempt to evaluate the historic development of relevant drought and heat-related extreme weather events from 1901 to 2010 on county level (NUTS-3) in Germany. Three simple drought indices and two simple heat stress indices were used in the analysis. A continuous increase in dry spells over time was observed over the investigated periods from 1901-1930, 1931-1960, 1961-1990 to 2001-2010. Short and medium dry spells, i.e., precipitation-free periods longer than 5 and 8 days, respectively, increased more strongly compared to longer dry spells (longer than 11 days). The heat-related stress indices with maximum temperatures above 25 and 28 °C during critical wheat growth phases showed no significant increase over the first three periods but an especially sharp increase in the final 1991-2010 period with the increases being particularly pronounced in parts of Southwestern Germany. Trend analysis over the entire 110-year period using Mann-Kendall test revealed a significant positive trend for all investigated indices except for heat stress above 25 °C during flowering period. The analysis of county-level yield data from 1981 to 2010 revealed declining spatial yield variability and rather constant temporal yield variability over the three investigated (1981-1990, 1991-2000, and 2001-2010) decades. A clear spatial gradient manifested over time with variability in the West being much smaller than in the east of Germany. Correlating yield variability with the previously analyzed extreme weather indices revealed strong

  1. Learning from today's extreme weather events to increase our resilience to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruin, I.; Lutoff, C.; Borga, M.; Creutin, J.-D.; Anquetin, S.; Gruntfest, E.; Scolobig, A.

    2009-04-01

    reflecting individuals and community responses to the crisis. Most of the time this information is hard to gather as no methodology has been developed for it. Social impacts of extreme weather event are related by public media during and shortly after the event. The impacts are documented by public agencies such as rescue services, medical care facilities, insurance companies in the limit of their respective missions and of their means. It appears during exceptional crises, the reporting, routinely done by these institutions, is made very difficult because the pace of rescue operations is too great (for example, almost 3000 people were rescued in one night during the September 2002 event). Social consequences are also partially summarized in the framework of official investigations led by state institutions after the crisis (see, for instance the report of Huet et al. (2003) in French). All in all, the resulting information appears to be fragmented and too heterogeneous to be used for statistical analysis and for monitoring long-term evolution of social vulnerability and adaptive capacity. The behavioral data collection is only possible in the framework of an organized partnership between scientists from different disciplines and operational services as national and European civil protection structures. An opportunity for settling this type of collaboration maybe find through existing structures as research observatories like the "Cévennes-Vivarais Mediterranean Hydrometeorological Observatory" (OHM-CV) located in Southern France and the "North-eastern Italy Hydrometeorological Observatory", located in NE Italy. These natural observatories stem from a research initiative aiming to understand intense Mediterranean storms that lead to devastating flash floods. A primary objective is to bring together the skills of meteorologists and hydrologists, model designers and experimentalists, researchers and practitioners to cope with these events that are so difficult to predict

  2. Nutrient stoichiometry in winter wheat: Element concentration pattern reflects developmental stage and weather.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weih, M; Pourazari, F; Vico, G

    2016-10-24

    At least 16 nutrient elements are required by plants for growth and survival, but the factors affecting element concentration and their temporal evolution are poorly understood. The objective was to investigate i) element concentration pattern in winter wheat as affected by crop developmental stage and weather, and ii) whether, in the short term, element stoichiometry reflects the type of preceding crop. We assessed the temporal trajectories of element concentration pattern (N, P, K, Ca, Mg, S, Mn, Fe, Cu, Na, Zn) across the life cycle (from seed to seed) of winter wheat field-grown in cool-temperate Sweden during two years with contrasting weather and when cultivated in monoculture or after different non-wheat preceding crops. We found strong influence of developmental stage on concentration pattern, with the greatest deviation from grain concentrations found in plants at the start of stem elongation in spring. Inter-annual differences in weather affected stoichiometry, but no evidence was found for a short-term preceding-crop effect on element stoichiometry. Winter wheat element stoichiometry is similar in actively growing plant tissues and seeds. Nitrogen exerts a strong influence on the concentration pattern for all elements. Three groups of elements with concentrations changing in concert were identified.

  3. Nutrient stoichiometry in winter wheat: Element concentration pattern reflects developmental stage and weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weih, M.; Pourazari, F.; Vico, G.

    2016-10-01

    At least 16 nutrient elements are required by plants for growth and survival, but the factors affecting element concentration and their temporal evolution are poorly understood. The objective was to investigate i) element concentration pattern in winter wheat as affected by crop developmental stage and weather, and ii) whether, in the short term, element stoichiometry reflects the type of preceding crop. We assessed the temporal trajectories of element concentration pattern (N, P, K, Ca, Mg, S, Mn, Fe, Cu, Na, Zn) across the life cycle (from seed to seed) of winter wheat field-grown in cool-temperate Sweden during two years with contrasting weather and when cultivated in monoculture or after different non-wheat preceding crops. We found strong influence of developmental stage on concentration pattern, with the greatest deviation from grain concentrations found in plants at the start of stem elongation in spring. Inter-annual differences in weather affected stoichiometry, but no evidence was found for a short-term preceding–crop effect on element stoichiometry. Winter wheat element stoichiometry is similar in actively growing plant tissues and seeds. Nitrogen exerts a strong influence on the concentration pattern for all elements. Three groups of elements with concentrations changing in concert were identified.

  4. Risk from drought and extreme heat in Russian wheat production and its relation to atmospheric blocking and teleconnection patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giannakaki, Paraskevi; Calanca, Pierluigi

    2017-04-01

    Russia has become one of the leading wheat exporters worldwide. Major breakdowns in Russian wheat production induced by extreme weather events are therefore of high significance not only for the domestic but also for the global market. Wheat production in south-western Russia, the main growing area, suffers in particular from the adverse effects of drought and heat waves. For this reason knowledge of the occurrence of this type of extreme events and of the processes that lead to adverse conditions is of paramount importance for risk management. The negative impacts of heat waves and drought are particularly severe when anomalous conditions persist in time. As an example, a blocking event in summer 2010 resulted in one of the warmest and worst drought conditions in Russia's recent history. The latter caused a decline in Russian wheat production by more than 30%, which in turn prompted the Russian government to issue an export ban that lasted until summer 2011. In view of this, the question of course arises of how much of the negative variations in Russian wheat production levels can be explained by blocking events and other features of the large-scale atmospheric circulation. Specific questions are: how often are blocking events over Russia associated with extreme high temperatures and dry conditions? Which of the teleconnection patterns are correlated with drought and heat stress conditions in the area? Answering these questions can contribute to a develop strategies for agricultural risk management. In this contribution we present results of a study that aims at characterizing the occurrence of adverse weather conditions in south-western Russia in relation to atmospheric blocking and teleconnection patterns such as East Atlantic/Western Russia pattern, the Polar/Eurasia pattern, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Scandinavia pattern. The analysis relies on weather data for 1980-2014 from 130 stations distributed across the wheat production area. The account

  5. Low frequency variability of European weather patterns and its impact on power generation in northern Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masato, Giacomo; Slavov, Georgi

    2016-04-01

    It is well known that Europe is becoming increasingly reliant on the power generation from the solar and wind sources. Germany is a leader in such a trend - it is then interesting to study to what extent the low-frequency variability of the European weather patterns impacts the power production in this country. Rather than identifying such patterns starting from the weather angle, four weather regimes are identified that maximize and minimize the production of solar and wind power. The analysis of their past occurrence and trends allows us to estimate the potential amount of energy produced for any given year (assuming a constant installed capacity). It is found that the sole change in such weather regimes over the recent years is able to drive up to a 20% annual difference in power generation. This also throws an interesting challenge at the scientific community, whereby the future projection of these regimes can heavily influence both the short- and long-term Eurozone plans in terms of European renewable energy targets.

  6. Dependencies of Europe's economy on water resources outside its borders and its vulnerability to weather extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chico Zamanillo, Daniel; Chapagain, Ashok; Ercin, Ertug

    2017-04-01

    Europe's economy is dependent on water resources elsewhere in the world since many of the goods consumed in the EU are not produced domestically, but abroad. Reliance on food, energy and goods produced in regions outside of the EU may impose water related risks on different economic sectors within the EU due to vulnerability of water resources used in their production to hydrological extremes and climate change. IMPREX project addresses this economic dependency and water resources vulnerability to hydrological extremes and climate change under WP12 "Water Economy". This study presents the results of the first task of WP12, mapping current dependencies of European economy on water resources outside its borders and their vulnerability to drought and water scarcity. In our assessment, we have used water footprint, which is a measure of the appropriation of freshwater resources for human activities, and is comprised of three components - green (consumption of rainfall), blue (consumption of surface and groundwater) and grey (refers to water pollution). We first calculated virtual water import, the amount of water consumed in producing products imported to the EU, and we identified key products - those making up the largest virtual water inflows to the EU. After mapping the dependencies, we assessed water scarcity and drought severity in producing locations. Coupling this with the water footprint enabled us to map the EU's external water dependencies and to identify when and where vulnerabilities may lie, in terms of blue water scarcity and drought. Overall, external green water resources account for 41% of the total green water footprint of the EU's economy. Soybean, cocoa, coffee, oil palm, sunflower, maize and olives are identified as key products from the perspective of green virtual water import to the EU. Soybean is the crop with the largest virtual water import volume to the EU with imports coming from Argentina, Brazil and USA. Europe relies on soybean import to

  7. The May 1967 great storm and radio disruption event: Extreme space weather and extraordinary responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knipp, D. J.; Ramsay, A. C.; Beard, E. D.; Boright, A. L.; Cade, W. B.; Hewins, I. M.; McFadden, R. H.; Denig, W. F.; Kilcommons, L. M.; Shea, M. A.; Smart, D. F.

    2016-09-01

    Although listed as one of the most significant events of the last 80 years, the space weather storm of late May 1967 has been of mostly fading academic interest. The storm made its initial mark with a colossal solar radio burst causing radio interference at frequencies between 0.01 and 9.0 GHz and near-simultaneous disruptions of dayside radio communication by intense fluxes of ionizing solar X-rays. Aspects of military control and communication were immediately challenged. Within hours a solar energetic particle event disrupted high-frequency communication in the polar cap. Subsequently, record-setting geomagnetic and ionospheric storms compounded the disruptions. We explain how the May 1967 storm was nearly one with ultimate societal impact, were it not for the nascent efforts of the United States Air Force in expanding its terrestrial weather monitoring-analysis-warning-prediction efforts into the realm of space weather forecasting. An important and long-lasting outcome of this storm was more formal Department of Defense-support for current-day space weather forecasting. This story develops during the rapid rise of solar cycle 20 and the intense Cold War in the latter half of the twentieth century. We detail the events of late May 1967 in the intersecting categories of solar-terrestrial interactions and the political-military backdrop of the Cold War. This was one of the "Great Storms" of the twentieth century, despite the apparent lack of large geomagnetically induced currents. Radio disruptions like those discussed here warrant the attention of today's radio-reliant, cellular-phone and satellite-navigation enabled world.

  8. Defining Population Health Vulnerability Following an Extreme Weather Event in an Urban Pacific Island Environment: Honiara, Solomon Islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Natuzzi, Eileen S; Joshua, Cynthia; Shortus, Matthew; Reubin, Reginald; Dalipanda, Tenneth; Ferran, Karen; Aumua, Audrey; Brodine, Stephanie

    2016-08-03

    Extreme weather events are common and increasing in intensity in the southwestern Pacific region. Health impacts from cyclones and tropical storms cause acute injuries and infectious disease outbreaks. Defining population vulnerability to extreme weather events by examining a recent flood in Honiara, Solomon Islands, can help stakeholders and policymakers adapt development to reduce future threats. The acute and subacute health impacts following the April 2014 floods were defined using data obtained from hospitals and clinics, the Ministry of Health and in-country World Health Organization office in Honiara. Geographical information system (GIS) was used to assess morbidity and mortality, and vulnerability of the health system infrastructure and households in Honiara. The April flash floods were responsible for 21 acute deaths, 33 injuries, and a diarrhea outbreak that affected 8,584 people with 10 pediatric deaths. A GIS vulnerability assessment of the location of the health system infrastructure and households relative to rivers and the coastline identified 75% of the health infrastructure and over 29% of Honiara's population as vulnerable to future hydrological events. Honiara, Solomon Islands, is a rapidly growing, highly vulnerable urban Pacific Island environment. Evaluation of the mortality and morbidity from the April 2014 floods as well as the infectious disease outbreaks that followed allows public health specialists and policy makers to understand the health system and populations vulnerability to future shocks. Understanding the negative impacts natural disaster have on people living in urban Pacific environments will help the government as well as development partners in crafting resilient adaptation development.

  9. Household and Community Assets and Farmers’ Adaptation to Extreme Weather Event:the Case of Drought in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Yang-jie; HUANG Ji-kun; WANG Jin-xia

    2014-01-01

    Under climate change, rising frequency and serious extreme weather events have challenged agricultural production. Designing appropriate adaptation measures to the extreme weather events require rigorous and empirical analysis. The overall goals of this study are to understand physical adaptation measures taken by farmers and the impacts of household and community assets on farmers’ adaptation when they face drought. The analyses are based on a unique data set collected from a household survey in three provinces in China. The survey results show that though not common on annual basis, some farmers did use physical adaptation measures to ifght drought. Regression analysis reveals that both household and community assets significantly affect farmers’ adaptation behaviors. Improving households’ social capital and wealth, communities’ network and access to government’s anti-drought service can facilitate farmers’ adaptation to drought. Results indicate that community’s irrigation infrastructure and physical adaptation taken by farmers can substitute each other. Further analysis shows that the households taking adaptation measures have higher crop yields than those without taking these measures. The paper concludes with several policy implications.

  10. Detection and Attribution of Climate Change : From global mean temperature change to climate extremes and high impact weather.

    CERN Document Server

    CERN. Geneva

    2013-01-01

    This talk will describe how evidence has grown in recent years for a human influence on climate and explain how the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that it is extremely likely (>95% probability) that human influence on climate has been the dominant cause of the observed global-mean warming since the mid-20th century. The fingerprint of human activities has also been detected in warming of the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, and in changes in some climate extremes. The strengthening of evidence for the effects of human influence on climate extremes is in line with long-held basic understanding of the consequences of mean warming for temperature extremes and for atmospheric moisture. Despite such compelling evidence this does not mean that every instance of high impact weather can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change, because climate variability is often a major factor in many locations, especially for rain...

  11. Introducing a rainfall compound distribution model based on weather patterns sub-sampling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Garavaglia

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a probabilistic model for daily rainfall, using sub-sampling based on meteorological circulation. We classified eight typical but contrasted synoptic situations (weather patterns for France and surrounding areas, using a "bottom-up" approach, i.e. from the shape of the rain field to the synoptic situations described by geopotential fields. These weather patterns (WP provide a discriminating variable that is consistent with French climatology, and allows seasonal rainfall records to be split into more homogeneous sub-samples, in term of meteorological genesis.

    First results show how the combination of seasonal and WP sub-sampling strongly influences the identification of the asymptotic behaviour of rainfall probabilistic models. Furthermore, with this level of stratification, an asymptotic exponential behaviour of each sub-sample appears as a reasonable hypothesis. This first part is illustrated with two daily rainfall records from SE of France.

    The distribution of the multi-exponential weather patterns (MEWP is then defined as the composition, for a given season, of all WP sub-sample marginal distributions, weighted by the relative frequency of occurrence of each WP. This model is finally compared to Exponential and Generalized Pareto distributions, showing good features in terms of robustness and accuracy. These final statistical results are computed from a wide dataset of 478 rainfall chronicles spread on the southern half of France. All these data cover the 1953–2005 period.

  12. Extreme Heat

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Landslides & Debris Flow Nuclear Blast Nuclear Power Plants Power Outages Pandemic Radiological Dispersion Device Severe Weather Snowstorms & Extreme ... Landslides & Debris Flow Nuclear Blast Nuclear Power Plants Power Outages Pandemic Radiological Dispersion Device Severe Weather Snowstorms & Extreme ...

  13. Insurance as an adaptation strategy for extreme weather events indeveloping countries and economies in transition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mills, Evan

    2004-06-30

    The insurance industry can play a material role indecreasing the vulnerability of developing countries and economies intransition to weather-related natural disasters while simultaneouslysupporting both its own market-based objectives and the objectives ofsustainable development. Although insurance is not a "silver bullet" forthe problems posed by natural disasters in emerging markets,public-private partnerships can enhance insurance's ability to spread therisks and manage the costs of weather-related disasters as well as toincrease the pool of people who have access to coverage. (For simplicityin this report, the phrase "emerging markets" is intended to encompassdeveloping countries and economies in transition.) Promising strategiesfor emerging markets involve establishing innovative products and systemsfor delivering insurance and using technologies and practices that bothreduce vulnerability to disaster-related insurance losses and supportsustainable development (including reducing greenhouse gas emissions).These strategies can enhance sustainable development efforts and increasethe insurability of risks, making insurance markets in emerging marketsmore viable. Emerging markets are especially vulnerable to extremeweather events, which impede development by causing physical damage,compromising human and ecosystem health, diverting scarce resources todisaster relief and recovery, and deterring future investment andinsurance availability by amplifying the risks faced by foreigninterests. An average of 300 million people are affected or killed eachyear by weather-related disasters in emerging markets. Characteristics ofemerging markets contributing to their particular vulnerability incontrast to developed nations include: greater frequency of poverty;weaker lifelines (transportation, communication, utilities, emergencyresponse, and hospitals); poorer quality of construction and absence ofor deficiencies in building codes and other regulations; and

  14. Relationship Between HIMAWARI-8-DERIVED Overshooting Tops and Extreme Weather Events in Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, H. M.; Kim, M. A.; Im, J.

    2016-06-01

    Severe weathers such as heavy rainfall, floods, strong wind, and lightning are closely related with the strong convection activities of atmosphere. Overshooting tops sometimes occur by deep convection above tropopause, penetrating into the lower stratosphere. Due to its high potential energy, the detection of OT is crucial to understand the climatic phenomena. Satellite images are useful to detect the dynamics of atmospheric conditions using cloud observation. This study used machine learning methods for extracting OTs. The reference cases were built using CloudSat, CALIPSO, and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) data with Himawari-8 imagery. As reference cases, 11 OT events were detected. The aim of this study is the investigation of relationship between OTs cases and the occurrences of heavy rainfall. For investigation of OT effects, TRMM daily rain rate data (mm/hr) were collected and averaged at 25 km intervals until 250km from the center of OT cases. As the result, precipitation rate clearly coincides with the distance from the center of OT occurrence.

  15. The impact of extreme weather conditions on the life of settlers in the Central Russia in X - XVI centuries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graves, Irina; Nizovtsev, Viacheslav; Erman, Natalia

    2017-04-01

    A special place in the reconstruction of climate dynamics takes an analysis of extraordinary meteorological phenomena. These extreme weather events in the first place impact the functioning of, the rhythm and dynamics of the landscapes and determine not only the features of economy, but also certain aspects of historical development. In the analysis of primary chronicles and published data, along with the direct climatic characteristics (hot, warm, cold, wet, dry, etc.) a lot of attention was paid to abnormal (extreme) natural phenomena and indirect indications of climate variability (floods, crop failures, hunger years, epidemics, etc.). As a result, tables were compiled reflecting climatic basic characteristics and extremes for each year since 900 BC. X-XI centuries was a period of minor climatic optimum - the climate was warmer and drier than the modern one. In addition to higher temperatures (up to 1-3C above than mordern), during this period there were no severe winters. A small amount of summer rainfall has led to a reduction in the number of small water reservoirs and flooding rivers. This is evidenced by Slavic settlements on floodplains of a number of rivers in the Moscow region. It is in this favorable climatic time the way "from the Vikings to the Greeks" was open. Catastrophic natural events had a minimum repeatability. For example, during the X century the Russian chronicles mentioned 41 extreme event, but for the XIII century - 102. Most of the villages and towns were located on the low floodplain terraces of rivers. The main farmland was concentrated there as well. In the "period of contrasts" (XIII - XIV centuries) there was an increase of intra-seasonal climate variability, humidity and widespread reduction in summer temperatures by 1-2C. The number of extreme weather events increased: cold prolonged winters, long rains in summers, cold weather returns in the early summer, early frosts in late summer - early autumn. Such conditions often

  16. Risk of hospitalization for fire-related burns during extreme cold weather.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayoub, Aimina; Kosatsky, Tom; Smargiassi, Audrey; Bilodeau-Bertrand, Marianne; Auger, Nathalie

    2017-10-01

    Environmental factors are important predictors of fires, but no study has examined the association between outdoor temperature and fire-related burn injuries. We sought to investigate the relationship between extremely cold outdoor temperatures and the risk of hospitalization for fire-related burns. We carried out a time-stratified case-crossover study of 2470 patients hospitalized for fire-related burn injuries during cold months between 1989 and 2014 in Quebec, Canada. The main exposure was the minimum outdoor temperature on the day of and the day before the burn. We computed odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) to evaluate the relationship between minimum temperature and fire-related burns, and assessed how associations varied across sex and age. Exposure to extreme cold temperature was associated with a significantly higher risk of hospitalization for fire-related burns. Compared with 0°C, exposure to a minimum temperature of -30°C was associated with an OR of 1.51 (95% CI 1.22-1.87) for hospitalization for fire-related burns. The associations were somewhat stronger for women, youth, and the elderly. Compared with 0°C, a minimum temperature of -30°C was associated with an OR for fire-related burn hospitalization of 1.65 for women (95% CI 1.13-2.40), 1.60 for age fire-related burns. Measures to prevent fires should be implemented prior to the winter season, and enhanced during extreme cold. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Possible links between extreme levels of space weather changes and human health state in middle latitudes: direct and indirect indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safaraly-Oghlu Babayev, Elchin

    geomagnetic storms of the solar cycle 23 on the mentioned systems in middle-latitude location. In these studies, direct and indirect indicators of space weather influence are used: 1) Indirect indicators are essentially epidemiological data showing the temporal and spatial distribution of defined events or health disturbances involving considerable numbers of test subjects over several years. The indirect indicators used in this paper are: temporal distribution of emergency calls and hospital admissions (sudden cardiac deaths, acute myocardial infarction mortality and morbidity, so on), dynamics of traffic accidents, epidemics, etc.; 2) Direct indicators. They are physiological parameters, which can be objectively verified and which are acquired either in vivo, directly on the subject (heart rate and its variability, blood pressure, human brain's functional state, human psycho-emotional state, so on), or in vitro by laboratory diagnostics or tissue investigations. The potential co-factors, e.g. terrestrial (tropospheric) weather, seasons, demographic factor, working environment, etc., were also considered in the interpretation of the indicators. Spectral analyses have revealed certain chronobiological periodicities in the considered data. There are also provided results of daily medical-physiological experiments (acupunctural studies of conductivity of the biologically active points of human body in days with different geomagnetic activity levels) conducted in the Laboratory of Heliobiology, Baku, Azerbaijan, as a part of collaborative studies with Russian institutions such as IZMIRAN and Space Research Institute. They show on the latitudinal and longitudinal dependence of space weather influence. Our complex studies enabled to conclude that not only extremely high, but also very low levels of geomagnetic activity may have signifi- cant influence on human health state, especially, in the cardio-vascular health state and human brain's bioelectrical activity.

  18. Weathering Processes and Concentration-Discharge Patterns in Granitic Landscapes of the Critical Zone Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguirre, A. A.; Derry, L. A.; Mills, T. J.

    2015-12-01

    Concentration-discharge relationships for silica in granitic landscapes vary throughout the critical zone network. In the Rio Icacos, Puerto Rico silica concentrations show strong dilution effects (Shanley et al., 2011). At the Boulder Creek CZO the Gordon Gulch catchment shows nearly constant dissolved silica (DSi) concentrations over three orders of magnitude change in discharge (Q). A major question is what controls the range of dilution to chemostatic behavior in catchments with similar lithology. Given that anything but perfect dilution behavior implies an increase in silica flux with increasing Q, we infer that different sources of DSi may be activated at different Q. Tracer data (Ge/Si) indicate that sources of DSi do change with Q in some systems (Kurtz et al., 2011). The CZO sites at Luquillo (LCZO), Boulder (BCCZO), Southern Sierra (SSCZO) and Santa Catalina-Jemez (SCCZO) share similar granitoid bedrock composition. We want to understand how the variation in climate, hydrology and weathering have influenced their regolith development and reach a better understanding of the DSi-Q patterns. Data from the SSCZO and BCCZO sites indicate that these systems have chemostatic C-Q behavior for Si and other major weathering products. However, Ge/Si and Si relationships between sites vary drastically. At the SSCZO Ge/Si ratios are very low, but increase at lower Si concentrations. This behavior is consistent with release of Si from plagioclase weathering and strong control of DGe by clay neoformation. At BCCZO, Ge/Si increases with increasing Si. In Boulder, DSi (as defined operationally by filtering at 0.45 μm) includes transport as colloidal particles that are important under certain hydrologic states. Thus the hydrochemical mechanisms responsible for chemostatic behavior of DSi differ significantly between the two locations despite similar lithologies and climate. Current work in soil and rock samples from BCCZO and SSCZO will help elaborate how mineralogical

  19. How extreme weather events can influence the way of thinking about forest management?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziemblińska, Klaudia; Merbold, Lutz; Urbaniak, Marek; Haeni, Matthias; Olejnik, Janusz

    2014-05-01

    One third of the total area of Poland, which is covered by forests, is currently managed by "The State National Forest Holding" - the biggest organization in Europe managing forests. Common management practice is based on clear-cutting the vegetation to maintaining forests and ensuring regrowth. While sufficient information exists on the quantity of harvested biomass and particularly its economic value, little knowledge exists on the overall environmental impact of such management including the carbon budgets of forests in Poland. At the same time these forests are very vulnerable to extreme events such as wind throws. Large wind throws can be used as an experimental platform to study both, the effects of extreme events itself but also the effects of management such as clear-cuts, due to the fact that after such kind of natural disasters similar steps then following clear-cuts are implemented. These activities include the removal of whole trees, collection of branches and pulling out stems with heavy machinery, causing additional disturbance. In this study, we aim at providing information to fill the current knowledge gap of changing C budget after clear-cuts and wind throws. We hypothesize large C losses after clear-cuts and ask whether one can improve current forest management to "save" C and/or enhance C sequestration? To answer this specific question we used the eddy covariance (EC) method to adequately measure the net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide (NEE) between a deforested area and the atmosphere (treatment) and compare it to measurements from an intact forest of the same type (control). Both sites have the same soil type (brunic arenosoil - after FAO classification) which is sandy and relatively not fertile. Moreover, main species and composition were similar. The treatment area was chosen after the occurrence of a 20min-lasting tornado in July 2012 in Western Poland. The storm resulted in the destruction of more than 500 ha of 75-year old pine forest

  20. Extreme ultraviolet resist materials for sub-7 nm patterning

    KAUST Repository

    Li, Li

    2017-06-26

    Continuous ongoing development of dense integrated circuits requires significant advancements in nanoscale patterning technology. As a key process in semiconductor high volume manufacturing (HVM), high resolution lithography is crucial in keeping with Moore\\'s law. Currently, lithography technology for the sub-7 nm node and beyond has been actively investigated approaching atomic level patterning. EUV technology is now considered to be a potential alternative to HVM for replacing in some cases ArF immersion technology combined with multi-patterning. Development of innovative resist materials will be required to improve advanced fabrication strategies. In this article, advancements in novel resist materials are reviewed to identify design criteria for establishment of a next generation resist platform. Development strategies and the challenges in next generation resist materials are summarized and discussed.

  1. Spatial analysis and modeling to assess and map current vulnerability to extreme weather events in the Grijalva - Usumacinta watershed, México

    Science.gov (United States)

    López L, D.

    2009-11-01

    One of the major concerns over a potential change in climate is that it will cause an increase in extreme weather events. In Mexico, the exposure factors as well as the vulnerability to the extreme weather events have increased during the last three or four decades. In this study spatial analysis and modeling were used to assess and map settlement and crop systems vulnerability to extreme weather events in the Grijalva - Usumacinta watershed. Sensitivity and coping adaptive capacity maps were constructed using decision models; these maps were then combined to produce vulnerability maps. The most vulnerable area in terms of both settlement and crop systems is the highlands, where the sensitivity is high and the adaptive capacity is low. In lowlands, despite the very high sensitivity, the higher adaptive capacity produces only moderate vulnerability. I conclude that spatial analysis and modeling are powerful tools to assess and map vulnerability. These preliminary results can guide the formulation of adaptation policies to an increasing risk of extreme weather events.

  2. Planning support system for climate adaptation: Composing effective sets of blue-green measures to reduce urban vulnerability to extreme weather events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Voskamp, I.M.; Ven, Van de F.H.M.

    2015-01-01

    The risk of pluvial flooding, heat stress and drought is increasing due to climate change. To increase urban resilience to extreme weather events, it is essential to combine green and blue infrastructure and link enhanced storage capacity in periods of water surplus with moments of water shortage as

  3. Planning support system for climate adaptation: Composing effective sets of blue-green measures to reduce urban vulnerability to extreme weather events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Voskamp, I.M.; Ven, Van de F.H.M.

    2015-01-01

    The risk of pluvial flooding, heat stress and drought is increasing due to climate change. To increase urban resilience to extreme weather events, it is essential to combine green and blue infrastructure and link enhanced storage capacity in periods of water surplus with moments of water shortage as

  4. Assessing urban strategies for reducing the impacts of extreme weather on infrastructure networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pregnolato, Maria; Ford, Alistair; Robson, Craig; Glenis, Vassilis; Barr, Stuart; Dawson, Richard

    2016-05-01

    Critical infrastructure networks, including transport, are crucial to the social and economic function of urban areas but are at increasing risk from natural hazards. Minimizing disruption to these networks should form part of a strategy to increase urban resilience. A framework for assessing the disruption from flood events to transport systems is presented that couples a high-resolution urban flood model with transport modelling and network analytics to assess the impacts of extreme rainfall events, and to quantify the resilience value of different adaptation options. A case study in Newcastle upon Tyne in the UK shows that both green roof infrastructure and traditional engineering interventions such as culverts or flood walls can reduce transport disruption from flooding. The magnitude of these benefits depends on the flood event and adaptation strategy, but for the scenarios considered here 3-22% improvements in city-wide travel times are achieved. The network metric of betweenness centrality, weighted by travel time, is shown to provide a rapid approach to identify and prioritize the most critical locations for flood risk management intervention. Protecting just the top ranked critical location from flooding provides an 11% reduction in person delays. A city-wide deployment of green roofs achieves a 26% reduction, and although key routes still flood, the benefits of this strategy are more evenly distributed across the transport network as flood depths are reduced across the model domain. Both options should form part of an urban flood risk management strategy, but this method can be used to optimize investment and target limited resources at critical locations, enabling green infrastructure strategies to be gradually implemented over the longer term to provide city-wide benefits. This framework provides a means of prioritizing limited financial resources to improve resilience. This is particularly important as flood management investments must typically exceed

  5. Assessing urban strategies for reducing the impacts of extreme weather on infrastructure networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pregnolato, Maria; Ford, Alistair; Robson, Craig; Glenis, Vassilis; Barr, Stuart; Dawson, Richard

    2016-01-01

    Critical infrastructure networks, including transport, are crucial to the social and economic function of urban areas but are at increasing risk from natural hazards. Minimizing disruption to these networks should form part of a strategy to increase urban resilience. A framework for assessing the disruption from flood events to transport systems is presented that couples a high-resolution urban flood model with transport modelling and network analytics to assess the impacts of extreme rainfall events, and to quantify the resilience value of different adaptation options. A case study in Newcastle upon Tyne in the UK shows that both green roof infrastructure and traditional engineering interventions such as culverts or flood walls can reduce transport disruption from flooding. The magnitude of these benefits depends on the flood event and adaptation strategy, but for the scenarios considered here 3–22% improvements in city-wide travel times are achieved. The network metric of betweenness centrality, weighted by travel time, is shown to provide a rapid approach to identify and prioritize the most critical locations for flood risk management intervention. Protecting just the top ranked critical location from flooding provides an 11% reduction in person delays. A city-wide deployment of green roofs achieves a 26% reduction, and although key routes still flood, the benefits of this strategy are more evenly distributed across the transport network as flood depths are reduced across the model domain. Both options should form part of an urban flood risk management strategy, but this method can be used to optimize investment and target limited resources at critical locations, enabling green infrastructure strategies to be gradually implemented over the longer term to provide city-wide benefits. This framework provides a means of prioritizing limited financial resources to improve resilience. This is particularly important as flood management investments must typically

  6. Realities of weather extremes on daily life in urban India - How quantified impacts infer sensible adaptation options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reckien, D.

    2012-12-01

    Emerging and developing economies are currently undergoing one of the profoundest socio-spatial transitions in their history, with strong urbanization and weather extremes bringing about changes in the economy, forms of living and living conditions, but also increasing risks and altered social divides. The impacts of heat waves and strong rain events are therefore differently perceived among urban residents. Addressing the social differences of climate change impacts1 and expanding targeted adaptation options have emerged as urgent policy priorities, particularly for developing and emerging economies2. This paper discusses the perceived impacts of weather-related extreme events on different social groups in New Delhi and Hyderabad, India. Using network statistics and scenario analysis on Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) as part of a vulnerability analysis, the investigation provides quantitative and qualitative measures to compare impacts and adaptation strategies for different social groups. Impacts of rain events are stronger than those of heat in both cities and affect the lower income classes particularly. Interestingly, the scenario analysis (comparing altered networks in which the alteration represents a possible adaptation measure) shows that investments in the water infrastructure would be most meaningful and more effective than investments in, e.g., the traffic infrastructure, despite the stronger burden from traffic disruptions and the resulting concentration of planning and policy on traffic ease and investments. The method of Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping offers a link between perception and modeling, and the possibility to aggregate and analyze the views of a large number of stakeholders. Our research has shown that planners and politicians often know about many of the problems, but are often overwhelmed by the problems in their respective cities and look for a prioritization of adaptation options. FCM provides this need and identifies priority adaptation options

  7. Variability of extreme weather events over the equatorial East Africa, a case study of rainfall in Kenya and Uganda

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ongoma, Victor; Chen, Haishan; Omony, George William

    2016-10-01

    This study investigates the variability of extreme rainfall events over East Africa (EA), using indices from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The analysis was based on observed daily rainfall from 23 weather stations, with length varying within 1961 and 2010. The indices considered are: wet days (R ≥1 mm), annual total precipitation in wet days (PRCPTOT), simple daily intensity index (SDII), heavy precipitation days (R ≥ 10 mm), very heavy precipitation days (R ≥ 20 mm), and severe precipitation (R ≥ 50 mm). The non-parametric Mann-Kendall statistical analysis was carried out to identify trends in the data. Temporal precipitation distribution was different from station to station. Almost all indices considered are decreasing with time. The analysis shows that the PRCPTOT, very heavy precipitation, and severe precipitation are generally declining insignificantly at 5 % significant level. The PRCPTOT is evidently decreasing over Arid and Semi-Arid Land (ASAL) as compared to other parts of EA. The number of days that recorded heavy rainfall is generally decreasing but starts to rise in the last decade although the changes are insignificant. Both PRCPTOT and heavy precipitation show a recovery in trend starting in the 1990s. The SDII shows a reduction in most areas, especially the in ASAL. The changes give a possible indication of the ongoing climate variability and change which modify the rainfall regime of EA. The results form a basis for further research, utilizing longer datasets over the entire region to reduce the generalizations made herein. Continuous monitoring of extreme events in EA is critical, given that rainfall is projected to increase in the twenty-first century.

  8. Tooth extraction: Pattern and etiology from extreme Northwestern Nigeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taiwo, Abdurrazaq Olanrewaju; Ibikunle, Adebayo Aremu; Braimah, Ramat Oyebunmi; Sulaiman, Omotayo Amidu; Gbotolorun, Olalekan Micah

    2017-01-01

    Tooth extraction is a commonly performed procedure in dental clinics. It has been shown that the reasons for and pattern of tooth extraction vary across geographical regions. Few reports on the pattern of extraction among a semi-urban populace exist. To the best of our knowledge, there is no study on the pattern and reasons for tooth mortality from Sokoto, Northwestern Nigeria, which is a semi-urban region. A review of the records of patients that had tooth extraction at our center between January 2009 and January 2016, was done. Data such as the age, gender, type of tooth extracted, and reasons for extraction were retrieved and analyzed. Cross tabulations for age and gender were also made. The level of statistical significance was set at P extractions were performed in 984 patients. An age range of 18-107 years with a mean (±standard deviation) of 34.8 (13.3) was observed. Most of the patients were in the 21-30 years age group accounting for 35.7% of cases. Dental caries and its sequelae (DCS) (631, 54.1%) were the most common reasons for extraction, followed by periodontal disease (192, 16.5%). The difference in proportions of reasons for tooth extraction between the gender was statistically significant (P = 0.02; df = 24). The difference in the reasons for extraction among the age groups was statistically significant (P extractions. These are largely preventable causes of tooth extraction; therefore, there is a need for commencement of far-reaching preventative actions.

  9. Patterns of disease distribution of lower extremity peripheral arterial disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qian; Shi, Yang; Wang, Yutang; Li, Xiaoying

    2015-03-01

    Peripheral arterial disease (PAD) is a common manifestation of atherosclerosis that is associated with an increased risk of mortality and cardiovascular (CV) events. Peripheral arterial disease involves the arteries distal to the aortic bifurcation in a nonuniform manner. Studies have shown that symptoms and prognosis of patients with PAD vary according to the location and size of the affected artery. Several modalities have been used to identify the location of PAD, including noninvasive evaluations and invasive procedures. Peripheral arterial disease has a risk factor profile similar to that associated with coronary artery disease (ie, age, gender, diabetes, smoking, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia). Many studies have shown that the distribution, extent, and progression of PAD are influenced by CV risk factors but the findings are not consistent. Management strategies for PAD are different for proximal and distal PAD. The objective of this review is to discuss the patterns of diseases distribution in patients with PAD.

  10. Trends in atmospheric patterns conducive to seasonal precipitation and temperature extremes in California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swain, Daniel L; Horton, Daniel E; Singh, Deepti; Diffenbaugh, Noah S

    2016-04-01

    Recent evidence suggests that changes in atmospheric circulation have altered the probability of extreme climate events in the Northern Hemisphere. We investigate northeastern Pacific atmospheric circulation patterns that have historically (1949-2015) been associated with cool-season (October-May) precipitation and temperature extremes in California. We identify changes in occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns by measuring the similarity of the cool-season atmospheric configuration that occurred in each year of the 1949-2015 period with the configuration that occurred during each of the five driest, wettest, warmest, and coolest years. Our analysis detects statistically significant changes in the occurrence of atmospheric patterns associated with seasonal precipitation and temperature extremes. We also find a robust increase in the magnitude and subseasonal persistence of the cool-season West Coast ridge, resulting in an amplification of the background state. Changes in both seasonal mean and extreme event configurations appear to be caused by a combination of spatially nonuniform thermal expansion of the atmosphere and reinforcing trends in the pattern of sea level pressure. In particular, both thermal expansion and sea level pressure trends contribute to a notable increase in anomalous northeastern Pacific ridging patterns similar to that observed during the 2012-2015 California drought. Collectively, our empirical findings suggest that the frequency of atmospheric conditions like those during California's most severely dry and hot years has increased in recent decades, but not necessarily at the expense of patterns associated with extremely wet years.

  11. World Weather Extremes. Revision,

    Science.gov (United States)

    1985-12-01

    Sahara at 320 32’N.13°01’E., eleva- a International Boundary and Water Commission, United States and Mexico , "Flow of the Colorado River and Other...rainfall, 124.79 centimeters (49.13 inches), occurred during Typhoon Gloria, and it was measured in a recording 114 Ibid. 1 lbid. 116 S. Marx, ’ Uber die...from New Mexico to Alberta. This area averages more hail days, more hailstorms, more and bigger hailstones, and thus a greater hail intensity than any

  12. Mountaineering in thin air. Patterns of death and of weather at high altitude.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huey, R B; Eguskitza, X; Dillon, M

    2001-01-01

    An 8000-m peak bring challenges of extremes of hypoxia and weather as well as the normal hazards of climbing itself. These challenges have taken a severe toll: 604 mountaineers have died on those great peaks since 1950. Little is known about whether mountain height, use of supplemental oxygen, or team size might influence rates of death or of success. However, such information may provide insights not only to our understanding of the limits of human performance, but also to mountaineers in making decisions on these peaks. We present several examples from a research program that is attempting to analyze factors that potentially influence success or death rates on the 8K peaks. (1) Apparent risk of death in the notorious Khumbu Icefall on Mt. Everest has declined dramatically in recent years. This decline could reflect improved route finding and technique, but might also reflect climate warming, which has caused the Khumbu glacier to shrink and slow in recent decades. (2) Risk of death during descent from an 8000-m peak increases with the height of the peak. (3) Risk of death during descent from the summit of Everest or of K2 is elevated for climbers not using supplemental oxygen. (4) We outline some new studies that are exploring how convective heat loss, which influences wind chill, changes with altitude as well as the incidence of storms: both factors will impact the probability success and death of Himalayan mountaineers.

  13. Weather effects on the patterns of people's everyday activities: a study using GPS traces of mobile phone users.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teerayut Horanont

    Full Text Available This study explores the effects that the weather has on people's everyday activity patterns. Temperature, rainfall, and wind speed were used as weather parameters. People's daily activity patterns were inferred, such as place visited, the time this took place, the duration of the visit, based on the GPS location traces of their mobile phones overlaid upon Yellow Pages information. Our analysis of 31,855 mobile phone users allowed us to infer that people were more likely to stay longer at eateries or food outlets, and (to a lesser degree at retail or shopping areas when the weather is very cold or when conditions are calm (non-windy. When compared to people's regular activity patterns, certain weather conditions affected people's movements and activities noticeably at different times of the day. On cold days, people's activities were found to be more diverse especially after 10AM, showing greatest variations between 2PM and 6PM. A similar trend is observed between 10AM and midnight on rainy days, with people's activities found to be most diverse on days with heaviest rainfalls or on days when the wind speed was stronger than 4 km/h, especially between 10AM-1AM. Finally, we observed that different geographical areas of a large metropolis were impacted differently by the weather. Using data of urban infrastructure to characterize areas, we found strong correlations between weather conditions upon people's accessibility to trains. This study sheds new light on the influence of weather conditions on human behavior, in particular the choice of daily activities and how mobile phone data can be used to investigate the influence of environmental factors on urban dynamics.

  14. Weather effects on the patterns of people's everyday activities: a study using GPS traces of mobile phone users.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horanont, Teerayut; Phithakkitnukoon, Santi; Leong, Tuck W; Sekimoto, Yoshihide; Shibasaki, Ryosuke

    2013-01-01

    This study explores the effects that the weather has on people's everyday activity patterns. Temperature, rainfall, and wind speed were used as weather parameters. People's daily activity patterns were inferred, such as place visited, the time this took place, the duration of the visit, based on the GPS location traces of their mobile phones overlaid upon Yellow Pages information. Our analysis of 31,855 mobile phone users allowed us to infer that people were more likely to stay longer at eateries or food outlets, and (to a lesser degree) at retail or shopping areas when the weather is very cold or when conditions are calm (non-windy). When compared to people's regular activity patterns, certain weather conditions affected people's movements and activities noticeably at different times of the day. On cold days, people's activities were found to be more diverse especially after 10AM, showing greatest variations between 2PM and 6PM. A similar trend is observed between 10AM and midnight on rainy days, with people's activities found to be most diverse on days with heaviest rainfalls or on days when the wind speed was stronger than 4 km/h, especially between 10AM-1AM. Finally, we observed that different geographical areas of a large metropolis were impacted differently by the weather. Using data of urban infrastructure to characterize areas, we found strong correlations between weather conditions upon people's accessibility to trains. This study sheds new light on the influence of weather conditions on human behavior, in particular the choice of daily activities and how mobile phone data can be used to investigate the influence of environmental factors on urban dynamics.

  15. Linking ENSO and heavy rainfall events over coastal British Columbia through a weather pattern classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Brigode

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Classifications of atmospheric weather patterns (WPs are widely used for the description of the climate of a given region and are employed for many applications, such as weather forecasting, downscaling of global circulation model outputs and reconstruction of past climates. WP classifications were recently used to improve the statistical characterisation of heavy rainfall. In this context, bottom-up approaches, combining spatial distribution of heavy rainfall observations and geopotential height fields have been used to define WP classifications relevant for heavy rainfall statistical analysis. The definition of WPs at the synoptic scale creates an interesting variable which could be used as a link between the global scale of climate signals and the local scale of precipitation station measurements. We introduce here a new WP classification centred on the British Columbia (BC coastal region (Canada and based on a bottom-up approach. Five contrasted WPs composed this classification, four rainy WPs and one non-rainy WP, the anticyclonic pattern. The four rainy WPs are mainly observed in the winter months (October to March, which is the period of heavy precipitation events in coastal BC and is thus consistent with the local climatology. The combination of this WP classification with the seasonal description of rainfall is shown to be useful for splitting observed precipitation series into more homogeneous sub-samples (i.e. sub-samples constituted by days having similar atmospheric circulation patterns and thus identifying, for each station, the synoptic situations that generate the highest hazard in terms of heavy rainfall events. El Niño-Southern Oscillations (ENSO significantly influence the frequency of occurrence of two coastal BC WPs. Within each WP, ENSO seem to influence only the frequency of rainy events and not the magnitudes of heavy rainfall events. Consequently, heavy rainfall estimations do not show significant evolution of heavy

  16. Linking ENSO and heavy rainfall events over coastal British Columbia through a weather pattern classification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brigode, P.; Mićović, Z.; Bernardara, P.; Paquet, E.; Garavaglia, F.; Gailhard, J.; Ribstein, P.

    2013-04-01

    Classifications of atmospheric weather patterns (WPs) are widely used for the description of the climate of a given region and are employed for many applications, such as weather forecasting, downscaling of global circulation model outputs and reconstruction of past climates. WP classifications were recently used to improve the statistical characterisation of heavy rainfall. In this context, bottom-up approaches, combining spatial distribution of heavy rainfall observations and geopotential height fields have been used to define WP classifications relevant for heavy rainfall statistical analysis. The definition of WPs at the synoptic scale creates an interesting variable which could be used as a link between the global scale of climate signals and the local scale of precipitation station measurements. We introduce here a new WP classification centred on the British Columbia (BC) coastal region (Canada) and based on a bottom-up approach. Five contrasted WPs composed this classification, four rainy WPs and one non-rainy WP, the anticyclonic pattern. The four rainy WPs are mainly observed in the winter months (October to March), which is the period of heavy precipitation events in coastal BC and is thus consistent with the local climatology. The combination of this WP classification with the seasonal description of rainfall is shown to be useful for splitting observed precipitation series into more homogeneous sub-samples (i.e. sub-samples constituted by days having similar atmospheric circulation patterns) and thus identifying, for each station, the synoptic situations that generate the highest hazard in terms of heavy rainfall events. El Niño-Southern Oscillations (ENSO) significantly influence the frequency of occurrence of two coastal BC WPs. Within each WP, ENSO seem to influence only the frequency of rainy events and not the magnitudes of heavy rainfall events. Consequently, heavy rainfall estimations do not show significant evolution of heavy rainfall

  17. The influence of wheelchair propulsion hand pattern on upper extremity muscle power and stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slowik, Jonathan S; Requejo, Philip S; Mulroy, Sara J; Neptune, Richard R

    2016-06-14

    The hand pattern (i.e., full-cycle hand path) used during manual wheelchair propulsion is frequently classified as one of four distinct hand pattern types: arc, single loop, double loop or semicircular. Current clinical guidelines recommend the use of the semicircular pattern, which is based on advantageous levels of broad biomechanical metrics implicitly related to the demand placed on the upper extremity (e.g., lower cadence). However, an understanding of the influence of hand pattern on specific measures of upper extremity muscle demand (e.g., muscle power and stress) is needed to help make such recommendations, but these quantities are difficult and impractical to measure experimentally. The purpose of this study was to use musculoskeletal modeling and forward dynamics simulations to investigate the influence of the hand pattern used on specific measures of upper extremity muscle demand. The simulation results suggest that the double loop and semicircular patterns produce the most favorable levels of overall muscle stress and total muscle power. The double loop pattern had the lowest full-cycle and recovery-phase upper extremity demand but required high levels of muscle power during the relatively short contact phase. The semicircular pattern had the second-lowest full-cycle levels of overall muscle stress and total muscle power, and demand was more evenly distributed between the contact and recovery phases. These results suggest that in order to decrease upper extremity demand, manual wheelchair users should consider using either the double loop or semicircular pattern when propelling their wheelchairs at a self-selected speed on level ground.

  18. Boreal Atmospheric circulation patterns on the basis of the world network weather station data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melnikov, V. A.; Moskalenko, L. V.; Golenko, N. N.; Golenko, M. N.

    2012-04-01

    Due to the recent developments of various methods of data representation in meteorology, the image of the globe-scale atmospheric circulation system has appeared. Basically, the circulation assessment is based on the indirect teleconnection method and rotated principal component analysis of the sea level pressure or geopotential height fields. These methods have several constraints because of the integration of intermittent and frontal atmospheric synoptic variability.As follows from the work of prof. B.L. Dzerdzeevskii, due to the existing of Arctic blocking processes, simplified geostrophic wind concept on the basis of the low-frequency baric patterns of the permanent centers of action, should be reconsidered in more details. For this purpose, weather station direct in-situ data with the use of progressive vector diagrams for wind speed and direction time series visualization are appropriate. Wind diagrams incorporate various fluctuations with time scales from synoptic to climatic, which can be considered without any filtration applied. The subject of work is to study the long-term wind regimes in the Northern Hemisphere, with the aim to obtain atmospheric circulation patterns in the regions of interest, in particular induced by the NAO(North Atlantic oscillation), EAWR(East Atlantic-West Russia) and SH(Siberian High) centers of action at different time and space scales. The analysis is based on the standard meteorological data (including wind direction and speed) of WMO network weather stations in the period since 1998 up to the present. For intercalibration and validation, NCEP-NCAR and QuickSCAT sea winds databases were considered, as well. Basic features of the wind variability are governed by the relevant types of the large-scale synoptic atmospheric processes, which depend upon the state of the global atmospheric circulation, their large-scale gyres and separate smaller vorticity cells. All the individual wind diagrams appear as having rather simple low

  19. Linking ENSO and heavy rainfall events over Coastal British Columbia through a weather pattern classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Brigode

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Classifications of atmospheric weather patterns (WPs are widely used for the description of the climate of a given region and are employed for many applications, such as weather forecasting, downscaling of global circulation model outputs and reconstruction of past climates. WP classifications were recently used to improve the statistical characterisation of heavy rainfall. In this context, bottom-up approaches, combining spatial distribution of heavy rainfall observations and geopotential height fields have been used to define WP classifications relevant for heavy rainfall statistical analysis. The definition of WPs at the synoptic scale creates an interesting variable which could be used as a link between the global scale of climate signals and the local scale of precipitation station measurements. We introduce here a new WP classification centred on the British Columbia Coastal region (Canada and based on a bottom-up approach. Five contrasted WPs composed this classification, four rainy WPs and one non-rainy WP, the anticyclonic pattern. The four rainy WPs are mainly observed in the winter months (October to March, which is the period of heavy precipitation events in Coastal BC and is thus consistent with the local climatology. The combination of this WP classification with the seasonal description of rainfall is shown to be useful for splitting observed precipitation series into more homogeneous sub-samples and thus identifying, for each station, the synoptic situations that generate the highest hazard in terms of heavy rainfall events. El Niño Southern Oscillations significantly influence the frequency of occurrence of two Coastal BC WPs. Within each WP, ENSO seem to influence only the frequency of rainy events and not the magnitudes of heavy rainfall events. Consequently, MEWP heavy rainfall estimations do not show significant evolution of heavy rainfall behaviour between Niño and Niña winters. However, the WP approach captures the

  20. Demographic effects of extreme weather events: snow storms, breeding success, and population growth rate in a long-lived Antarctic seabird.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Descamps, Sébastien; Tarroux, Arnaud; Varpe, Øystein; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Tveraa, Torkild; Lorentsen, Svein-Håkon

    2015-01-01

    Weather extremes are one important element of ongoing climate change, but their impacts are poorly understood because they are, by definition, rare events. If the frequency and severity of extreme weather events increase, there is an urgent need to understand and predict the ecological consequences of such events. In this study, we aimed to quantify the effects of snow storms on nest survival in Antarctic petrels and assess whether snow storms are an important driver of annual breeding success and population growth rate. We used detailed data on daily individual nest survival in a year with frequent and heavy snow storms, and long term data on petrel productivity (i.e., number of chicks produced) at the colony level. Our results indicated that snow storms are an important determinant of nest survival and overall productivity. Snow storm events explained 30% of the daily nest survival within the 2011/2012 season and nearly 30% of the interannual variation in colony productivity in period 1985-2014. Snow storms are a key driver of Antarctic petrel breeding success, and potentially population dynamics. We also found state-dependent effects of snow storms and chicks in poor condition were more likely to die during a snow storm than chicks in good condition. This stresses the importance of considering interactions between individual heterogeneity and extreme weather events to understand both individual and population responses to climate change.

  1. Impacts of Multi-Scale Solar Activity on Climate.Part Ⅰ:Atmospheric Circulation Patterns and Climate Extremes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Hengyi WENG

    2012-01-01

    The impacts of solar activity on climate are explored in this two-part study.Based on the principles of atmospheric dynamics,Part Ⅰ propose an amplifying mechanism of solar impacts on winter climate extremes through changing the atmospheric circulation patterns.This mechanism is supported by data analysis of the sunspot number up to the predicted Solar Cycle 24,the historical surface temperature data,and atmospheric variables of NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis up to the February 2011 for the Northern Hemisphere winters.For low solar activity,the thermal contrast between the low- and high-latitudes is enhanced,so as the mid-latitude baroclinic ultra-long wave activity.The land-ocean thermal contrast is also enhanced,which amplifies the topographic waves.The enhanced mid-latitude waves in turn enhance the meridional heat transport from the low to high latitudes,making the atmospheric “heat engine” more efficient than normal. The jets shift southward and the polar vortex is weakened.The Northern Annular Mode (NAM) index tends to be negative.The mid-latitude surface exhibits large-scale convergence and updrafts,which favor extreme weather/climate events to occur.The thermally driven Siberian high is enhanced,which enhances the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM).For high solar activity,the mid-latitude circulation patterns are less wavy with less meridional transport.The NAM tends to be positive,and the Siberian high and the EAWM tend to be weaker than normal.Thus the extreme weather/climate events for high solar activity occur in different regions with different severity from those for low solar activity.The solar influence on the midto high-latitude surface temperature and circulations can stand out after renoving the influence from the El Ni(n)o-Southern Oscillation.The atmospheric amplifying mechanism indicates that the solar impacts on climate should not be simply estimated by the magnitude of the change in the solar radiation over solar cycles when it is compared with

  2. Weathering Patterns of Ignitable Liquids with the Advanced Distillation Curve Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruno, Thomas J; Allen, Samuel

    2013-01-01

    One can take advantage of the striking similarity of ignitable liquid vaporization (or weathering) patterns and the separation observed during distillation to predict the composition of residual compounds in fire debris. This is done with the advanced distillation curve (ADC) metrology, which separates a complex fluid by distillation into fractions that are sampled, and for which thermodynamically consistent temperatures are measured at atmospheric pressure. The collected sample fractions can be analyzed by any method that is appropriate. Analytical methods we have applied include gas chromatography (with flame ionization, mass spectrometric and sulfur chemiluminescence detection), thin layer chromatography, FTIR, Karl Fischer coulombic titrimetry, refractometry, corrosivity analysis, neutron activation analysis and cold neutron prompt gamma activation analysis. We have applied this method on product streams such as finished fuels (gasoline, diesel fuels, aviation fuels, rocket propellants), crude oils (including a crude oil made from swine manure) and waste oils streams (used automotive and transformer oils). In this paper, we present results on a variety of ignitable liquids that are not commodity fuels, chosen from the Ignitable Liquids Reference Collection (ILRC). These measurements are assembled into a preliminary database. From this selection, we discuss the significance and forensic application of the temperature data grid and the composition explicit data channel of the ADC. PMID:26401423

  3. Patterns and singular features of extreme fluctuational paths of a periodically driven system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Zhen, E-mail: czkillua@icloud.com; Liu, Xianbin, E-mail: xbliu@nuaa.edu.cn

    2016-05-20

    Large fluctuations of an overdamped periodically driven oscillating system are investigated theoretically and numerically in the limit of weak noise. Optimal paths fluctuating to certain point are given by statistical analysis using the concept of prehistory probability distribution. The validity of statistical results is verified by solutions of boundary value problem. Optimal paths are found to change topologically when terminating points lie at opposite side of a switching line. Patterns of extreme paths are plotted through a proper parameterization of Lagrangian manifold having complicated structures. Several extreme paths to the same point are obtained by multiple solutions of boundary value solutions. Actions along various extreme paths are calculated and associated analysis is performed in relation to the singular features of the patterns. - Highlights: • Both extreme and optimal paths are obtained by various methods. • Boundary value problems are solved to ensure the validity of statistical results. • Topological structure of Lagrangian manifold is considered. • Singularities of the pattern of extreme paths are studied.

  4. Characterisation of Evolving Patterns and Underlying Regimes of Hydroclimatic Extremes in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, J.; Perdigão, R. A. P.

    2015-12-01

    The dominant factors influencing hydroclimatic extreme events in Europe vary considerably across both time and space. Therefore, it is difficult to discern the dominant processes that govern floods and droughts in Europe. However, by focusing on large-scale physical processes that span beyond the catchment scale and on associated scale interactions, new insights can be gained on the resulting regional spatial patters. By assembling and thoroughly analysing a new unique database, with over 5000 discharge gauging stations in Europe, with key physical principles in mind, a better understanding of the driving processes underlying hydroclimatic extreme events is obtained. For example, by taking into account different time scales, different regimes of the extreme hydrological patterns are identified and linked to large-scale climatic controls. The improved understanding of how hydroclimatic extremes respond to their underlying controls in space and time paves the way for progress in the estimation of regimes and changes in floods and droughts.

  5. Weathering patterns of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons contained in submerged Deepwater Horizon oil spill residues when re-exposed to sunlight.

    Science.gov (United States)

    John, Gerald F; Han, Yuling; Clement, T Prabhakar

    2016-12-15

    The Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill event released a large amount of sweet crude oil into the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). An unknown portion of this oil that arrived along the Alabama shoreline interacted with nearshore sediments and sank forming submerged oil mats (SOMs). A considerable amount of hydrocarbons, including polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), were trapped within these buried SOMs. Recent studies completed using the oil spill residues collected along the Alabama shoreline have shown that several PAHs, especially higher molecular weight PAHs (four or more aromatic rings), are slowly weathering compared to the weathering levels experienced by the oil when it was floating over the GOM. In this study we have hypothesized that the weathering rates of PAHs in SOMs have slowed down because the buried oil was isolated from direct exposure to sunlight, thus hindering the photodegradation pathway. We further hypothesized that re-exposing SOMs to sunlight can reactivate various weathering reactions. Also, SOMs contain 75-95% sand (by weight) and the entrapped sand could either block direct sunlight or form large oil agglomerates with very little exposed surface area; these processes could possibly interfere with weathering reactions. To test these hypotheses, we completed controlled experiments to study the weathering patterns of PAHs in a field recovered SOM sample after re-exposing it to sunlight. Our experimental results show that the weathering levels of several higher molecular weight PAHs have slowed down primarily due to the absence of sunlight-induced photodegradation reactions. The data also show that sand particles in SOM material could potentially interfere with photodegradation reactions.

  6. Can tree-ring density data reflect summer temperature extremes and associated circulation patterns over Fennoscandia?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Peng; Ionita, Monica; Lohmann, Gerrit; Chen, Deliang; Linderholm, Hans W.

    2016-12-01

    Tree-ring maximum latewood density (MXD) records from Fennoscandia have been widely used to infer regional- and hemispheric-scale mean temperature variability. Here, we explore if MXD records can also be used to infer past variability of summer temperature extremes across Fennoscandia. The first principal component (PC1) based on 34 MXD chronologies in Fennoscandia explains 50% of the total variance in the observed warm-day extremes over the period 1901-1978. Variations in both observed summer warm-day extremes and PC1 are influenced by the frequency of anomalous anticyclonic pattern over the region, summer sea surface temperatures over the Baltic, North and Norwegian Seas, and the strength of the westerly zonal wind at 200 hPa across Fennoscandia. Both time series are associated with nearly identical atmospheric circulation and SST patterns according to composite map analysis. In a longer context, the first PC based on 3 millennium-long MXD chronologies in central and northern Fennoscandia explains 83% of the total variance of PC1 from the 34 MXD chronologies over the period 1901-1978, 48% of the total variance of the summer warm-day extreme variability over the period 1901-2006, and 36% of the total variance in the frequency of a summer anticyclonic pattern centered over eastern-central Fennoscandia in the period 1948-2006. The frequency of summer warm-day extremes in Fennoscandia is likely linked to a meridional shift of the northern mid-latitude jet stream. This study shows that the MXD network can be used to infer the variability of past summer warm-day extremes and the frequency of the associated summer anticyclonic circulation pattern over Fennoscandia.

  7. The origin of spheroidal patterns of weathering in the Pados-Tundra mafic-ultramafic complex, Kola Peninsula, Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.Y. Barkov

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available We document a new and unusual occurrence of patterns of protruding spheroidal weathering developed in a dunitic rock of the Pados-Tundra mafic-ultramafic complex of Early Proterozoic age, Kola Peninsula, Russia. It provides an example similar to that reported recently from a mineralized harzburgite in the Monchepluton layered complex in the same region. These patterns are genetically different from common results of “normal spheroidal weathering” sensu stricto. The spheroidally weathered dunite at Pados-Tundra consists of a high-Fo olivine, Ol (Fo 87. 5, which is, in fact, not altered. Accessory grains of aluminous chromite are present. Relief spheroids (1.5 to 4 cm in diameter; up to ~5 vol. % are distributed sparsely and heterogeneously. They are hosted by the olivine matrix and composed of talc, Tlc, and tremolite, Tr, (Mg# = 95-96 formed presumably at the expense of orthopyroxene, Opx, (i.e., pre-existing oikocrysts during a deuteric (autometasomatic alteration. In contrast, oikocrystic Opx (En 86.0 is quite fresh in related spheroids at Monchepluton, in which only minor deuteric alteration (Tlc + Tr are observed. We infer that (1 the ball-shaped morphology of the weathered surface is a reflection of the presence of oikocrysts of Opx, which crystallized after Ol at the magmatic stage; they were entirely replaced by the deuterically induced Tlc + Tr at Pados-Tundra. (2 Differential rates of weathering are implied for rock-forming minerals in these ultramafic rocks, with a higher resistance of Opx vs. Fo-rich Ol, and Tlc + Tr vs. Fo-rich Ol. (3 The ball-like shape of the large spheroids, produced by magmatic processes, may likely represent an additional factor of their higher stability to weathering in the superficial environment. Similar patterns can be expected in other mafic-ultramafic complexes, especially in layered intrusions.

  8. Urban development under extreme hydrologic and weather conditions for El Paso-Juarez: Recommendations resulting from hydrologic modeling, GIS, and remote sensing analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barud-Zubillaga, Alberto

    During the 2006 El Paso-Juarez flood there were many concerns regarding the capability of the existing stormwater system to handle 50- and 100-year flood events in El Paso, Texas and Juarez, Mexico area. Moreover in 2008, a considerable wet year from the normal 223 mm of annual precipitation for El Paso demonstrated that the area could very well received large amounts of precipitation at localized areas in short periods of time, representing a great flood threat to residents living in areas prone to flood. Some climate change projections for the area are exactly what had occurred over the last two decades; an increased number of torrential rainstorms over smaller concentrated pieces of land separated by longer years of drought between rainstorms. This study consisted in three projects focused on three critical regions within the El Paso-Juarez area that were greatly affected by the 2006 Flood. The goal was to identify if natural arroyos or the existent built stormwater system, could properly managed the projected precipitation patterns. The three projects described in this dissertation touch on the following points: (a) the importance of a reliable precipitation model that could accurately describes precipitation patterns in the region under extreme drought and wet climates conditions; (b) differences in land use/land cover characteristics as factors promoting or disrupting the possibility for flooding, and (c) limitations and capabilities of existent stormwater systems and natural arroyos as means to control flooding. Conclusions and recommendations are shown below, which apply not only to each particular project, but also to all study areas and similar areas in the El Paso-Juarez region. Urbanization can improve or worsen a pre-existing natural stormwater system if built under its required capacity. Such capacity should be calculated considering extreme weather conditions, based on a denser network of precipitation stations to capture the various microclimates

  9. Chronic venous insufficiency patterns in lower extremity veins detected by Doppler Ultrasound

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Özhan Özgür

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The aim of this study was to reveal patterns ofchronic venous insufficiency of lower extremity detectedby color Doppler ultrasound and clarify its clinical implicationsin the patients with varicose veins symptoms.Methods: Between 2006 to 2011, a total of 2006 patientspresented with symptoms of venous insufficiency wereincluded in study. A total of 3938 lower extremity venoussystems were examined using color Doppler US. Weclassified four patterns considering combinations of superficialand deep venous insufficiency.Results: Of 2006 patients, 966 had either single venousinsufficiency (790, 82% or combined insufficiency (176,18%. Superficial venous insufficiency was observedat the saphenoefemoral junction (SFJ in 25.5%, at theGreat Saphenous Vein (GSV in 57.6%, at the GiacominiVein in 2.4%, at the saphenopopliteal junction in 1.8% andfinally at the Small Saphenous Vein (SSV in 9.1% of thepatients. We found multilevel venous insufficiency showingconnections at the rate of 51%. We described fourpatterns as Pattern 1: SFJ insufficiency combined withGSV (97.9%, GSV branching (7.1%, and perforatingvein (20.8% insufficiency, Pattern 2: Deep venous insufficiencycombined with SFJ (63.6%, GSV (76.4%, andSSV (16.4% insufficiency, Pattern 3: SPJ insufficiencycombined with SSV insufficiency (95.5% and Pattern 4:Giacomini Vein insufficiency combined with GSV (67.9%and SSV (75% insufficiency.Conclusion: Chronic venous insufficiency may show fourdifferent patterns. Our results revealed that SFJ and GSVinsufficiency combination and deep venous insufficiencyand GSV insufficiency combinations are the most commoninsufficiency patterns seen in lower extremity.Key words: Doppler ultrasound, varicose veins, venous insufficiency

  10. Assimilation of Sentinel-1 estimates of Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV) into a Numerical Weather Model for a more accurate forecast of extreme weather events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mateus, Pedro; Nico, Giovanni; Catalao, Joao

    2017-04-01

    In the last two decades, SAR interferometry has been used to obtain maps of Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV).This maps are characterized by their high spatial resolution when compared to the currently available PWV measurements (e.g. GNSS, radiometers or radiosondes). Several previous works have shown that assimilating PWV values, mainly derived from GNSS observations, into Numerical Weather Models (NWMs) can significantly improve rainfall predictions.It is noteworthy that the PWV-derived from GNSS observations have a high temporal resolution but a low spatialone. In addition, there are many regions without any GNSS stations, where temporal and spatial distribution of PWV areonly available through satellite measurements. The first attempt to assimilate InSAR-derived maps of PWV (InSAR-PWV) into a NWM was made by Pichelli et al. [1].They used InSAR-PWV maps obtained from ENVISAT-ASAR images and the mesoscale weather prediction model MM5 over the city of Rome, Italy. The statistical indices show that the InSAR-PWVdata assimilation improves the forecast of weak to moderateprecipitation (model over the city of Lisbon, Portugal, during a light rain event not forecast by the model.Results showed that after data assimilation, there is a bias correction of the PWV field and an improvement in the forecast of the weakto moderate rainfall up to 9 h after the assimilation time. We used, for the first time, the Weather Research and Forecast Data Assimilation (WRFDA) model, at micro-scale resolutions (3 km), over the Iberian Peninsula (focusing on the southern region of Spain) and during a convective cell associated with a local heavy rainfall event, to study the impact of assimilation PWV maps obtained from SAR interferometric phase calculated using images acquired by the Sentinel-1 satellite. It's worth noting that, in this case, the model without assimilation PWV maps fails to reproduce the amount and the region of heavy rainfall. The assimilation of InSAR-PWV maps with high

  11. Spatial patterns and controls of soil chemical weathering rates along a transient hillslope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoo, K.; Mudd, S.M.; Sanderman, J.; Amundson, Ronald; Blum, A.

    2009-01-01

    Hillslopes have been intensively studied by both geomorphologists and soil scientists. Whereas geomorphologists have focused on the physical soil production and transport on hillslopes, soil scientists have been concerned with the topographic variation of soil geochemical properties. We combined these differing approaches and quantified soil chemical weathering rates along a grass covered hillslope in Coastal California. The hillslope is comprised of both erosional and depositional sections. In the upper eroding section, soil production is balanced by physical erosion and chemical weathering. The hillslope then transitions to a depositional slope where soil accumulates due to a historical reduction of channel incision at the hillslope's base. Measurements of hillslope morphology and soil thickness were combined with the elemental composition of the soil and saprolite, and interpreted through a process-based model that accounts for both chemical weathering and sediment transport. Chemical weathering of the minerals as they moved downslope via sediment transport imparted spatial variation in the geochemical properties of the soil. Inverse modeling of the field and laboratory data revealed that the long-term soil chemical weathering rates peak at 5 g m- 2 yr- 1 at the downslope end of the eroding section and decrease to 1.5 g m- 2 yr- 1 within the depositional section. In the eroding section, soil chemical weathering rates appear to be primarily controlled by the rate of mineral supply via colluvial input from upslope. In the depositional slope, geochemical equilibrium between soil water and minerals appeared to limit the chemical weathering rate. Soil chemical weathering was responsible for removing 6% of the soil production in the eroding section and 5% of colluvial influx in the depositional slope. These were among the lowest weathering rates reported for actively eroding watersheds, which was attributed to the parent material with low amount of weatherable

  12. Patterns of impact in the weatherization assistance program: A closer look

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berry, L.G.; Brown, M.A.

    1994-06-01

    In 1990, the US Department of Energy (DOE) initiated a nationwide evaluation of the Weatherization Program. The second phase of the Single-Family Study, which is the subject of this report, is part of this coordinated evaluation effort. In the first chapter the goals and overall design of the study are presented. Chapter 2 discussed methodology, the sample selection process, and data collection procedures. The following chapters (3, 4, and 5) compare the four sets of comparison groups. In Chapter 3, the results of extensive descriptions and measurements of dwelling characteristics, and of blower door, heating system efficiency, and carbon monoxide (CO) tests are compared for control, weatherized, and treated dwellings. In Chapter 4, characteristics of weatherized dwellings with especially high versus those with especially low energy savings are examined. Dwelling characteristic, the presence and amounts of specific weatherization measures, and occupant characteristics and behaviors are examined as factors that may explain variations in energy savings. Chapter 5 presents comparisons of pairs of higher- versus lower-savings agencies in each of several climate regions. These comparison examined differences in housing stocks, service delivery procedures, weatherization measures installed, and allocation of agency funds. The focus here is on the identification of more and less effective weatherization practices and of promising future directions for the Program. This report adds to the earlier one by comparing the practices of lower-savings agencies with those of the higher-saving ones. Chapter 6 compares occupant perceptions of comfort, health, safety, and energy affordability for the weatherized versus control group clients, for the high- versus low-saving dwellings, and the higher-versus lower-saving agencies. Chapter 7 summarizes this study`s findings and presents recommendations.

  13. Capturing spatial and temporal patterns of widespread, extreme flooding across Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busby, Kathryn; Raven, Emma; Liu, Ye

    2013-04-01

    Statistical characterisation of physical hazards is an integral part of probabilistic catastrophe models used by the reinsurance industry to estimate losses from large scale events. Extreme flood events are not restricted by country boundaries which poses an issue for reinsurance companies as their exposures often extend beyond them. We discuss challenges and solutions that allow us to appropriately capture the spatial and temporal dependence of extreme hydrological events on a continental-scale, which in turn enables us to generate an industry-standard stochastic event set for estimating financial losses for widespread flooding. By presenting our event set methodology, we focus on explaining how extreme value theory (EVT) and dependence modelling are used to account for short, inconsistent hydrological data from different countries, and how to make appropriate statistical decisions that best characterise the nature of flooding across Europe. The consistency of input data is of vital importance when identifying historical flood patterns. Collating data from numerous sources inherently causes inconsistencies and we demonstrate our robust approach to assessing the data and refining it to compile a single consistent dataset. This dataset is then extrapolated using a parameterised EVT distribution to estimate extremes. Our method then captures the dependence of flood events across countries using an advanced multivariate extreme value model. Throughout, important statistical decisions are explored including: (1) distribution choice; (2) the threshold to apply for extracting extreme data points; (3) a regional analysis; (4) the definition of a flood event, which is often linked with reinsurance industry's hour's clause; and (5) handling of missing values. Finally, having modelled the historical patterns of flooding across Europe, we sample from this model to generate our stochastic event set comprising of thousands of events over thousands of years. We then briefly

  14. Extremely Robust and Patternable Electrodes for Copy-Paper-Based Electronics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahn, Jaeho; Seo, Ji-Won; Lee, Tae-Ik; Kwon, Donguk; Park, Inkyu; Kim, Taek-Soo; Lee, Jung-Yong

    2016-07-27

    We propose a fabrication process for extremely robust and easily patternable silver nanowire (AgNW) electrodes on paper. Using an auxiliary donor layer and a simple laminating process, AgNWs can be easily transferred to copy paper as well as various other substrates using a dry process. Intercalating a polymeric binder between the AgNWs and the substrate through a simple printing technique enhances adhesion, not only guaranteeing high foldability of the electrodes, but also facilitating selective patterning of the AgNWs. Using the proposed process, extremely crease-tolerant electronics based on copy paper can be fabricated, such as a printed circuit board for a 7-segment display, portable heater, and capacitive touch sensor, demonstrating the applicability of the AgNWs-based electrodes to paper electronics.

  15. On Predictive Understanding of Extreme Events: Pattern Recognition Approach; Prediction Algorithms; Applications to Disaster Preparedness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keilis-Borok, V. I.; Soloviev, A.; Gabrielov, A.

    2011-12-01

    We describe a uniform approach to predicting different extreme events, also known as critical phenomena, disasters, or crises. The following types of such events are considered: strong earthquakes; economic recessions (their onset and termination); surges of unemployment; surges of crime; and electoral changes of the governing party. A uniform approach is possible due to the common feature of these events: each of them is generated by a certain hierarchical dissipative complex system. After a coarse-graining, such systems exhibit regular behavior patterns; we look among them for "premonitory patterns" that signal the approach of an extreme event. We introduce methodology, based on the optimal control theory, assisting disaster management in choosing optimal set of disaster preparedness measures undertaken in response to a prediction. Predictions with their currently realistic (limited) accuracy do allow preventing a considerable part of the damage by a hierarchy of preparedness measures. Accuracy of prediction should be known, but not necessarily high.

  16. Compressive phase-only filtering - pattern recognition at extreme compression rates

    CERN Document Server

    Pastor-Calle, David; Mikolajczyk, Michal; Kotynski, Rafal

    2016-01-01

    We introduce a compressive pattern recognition method for non-adaptive Walsh-Hadamard or discrete noiselet-based compressive measurements and show that images measured at extremely high compression rates may still contain sufficient information for pattern recognition and target localization. We report on a compressive pattern recognition experiment with a single-pixel detector with which we validate the proposed method. The correlation signals produced with the phase-only matched filter or with the pure-phase correlation are obtained from the compressive measurements through lasso optimization without the need to reconstruct the original image. This is possible owing to the two properties of phase-only filtering: such filtering is a unitary circulant transform, and the correlation plane it produces in pattern recognition applications is usually sparse.

  17. EXTREME DELTA BRUSH EEG PATTERN IN A CASE WITH ANTI-NMDA RECEPTOR ENCEPHALITIS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Söylemez, Elif; Güveli, Betül Tekin; Atakli, Dilek; Yatmazoğlu, Merve; Atay, Turan; Dayan, Cengiz

    2015-09-30

    Anti-N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor NMDA-R encephalitis is caused by antibodies against the NMDA-R and characterized by a severe encephalopathy with psychosis, epileptic seizures and autonomic disturbances. This disorder is often accompanied with malignancies, especially ovarian teratoma. Some patients' EEGs show a different pattern similar to the waveforms of premature infants and this pattern is specifically named as extreme delta brush (EDB). We report a 24-year-old female having anti-NMDA receptor encephalitis and EDB patern.

  18. Linking Satellite-Derived Fire Counts to Satellite-Derived Weather Data in Fire Prediction Models to Forecast Extreme Fires in Siberia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westberg, D. J.; Soja, A. J.; Stackhouse, P. W.

    2009-12-01

    different time scales. We spatially compare the FWI using GEOS-4 / GPCP data on a grid from 50-80 degrees latitude and 70 degrees East longitude to 170 degrees West longitude. We are covering the burning season from April through October for the years of 1999 and 2002. Extreme fires occurred in central Siberia in 2002. In contrast, minor fires occurred in central Siberia 1999. Our analysis shows a direct correlation between increased fire activity and increased FWI, independent of time or the severity of the fire season. We noticed the density of fire counts per 1-degree grid box increased with increasing FWI rating. During normal and extreme fire seasons, the percentage of 1-degree grid boxes with and without fire counts increased with increasing FWI rating. Given this analysis, we are confident large-scale weather and climate data, in this case from the GEOS reanalysis and the GPCP data sets, can be used to accurately assess future fire potential. This increases confidence in the ability of large-scale IPCC weather and climate scenarios to predict future fire regimes in boreal regions.

  19. Eye spy: the predictive value of fixation patterns in detecting subtle and extreme emotions from faces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaidya, Avinash R; Jin, Chenshuo; Fellows, Lesley K

    2014-11-01

    Successful social interaction requires recognizing subtle changes in the mental states of others. Deficits in emotion recognition are found in several neurological and psychiatric illnesses, and are often marked by disturbances in gaze patterns to faces, typically interpreted as a failure to fixate on emotionally informative facial features. However, there has been very little research on how fixations inform emotion recognition in healthy people. Here, we asked whether fixations predicted detection of subtle and extreme emotions in faces. We used a simple model to predict emotion detection scores from participants' fixation patterns. The best fit of this model heavily weighted fixations to the eyes in detecting subtle fear, disgust and surprise, with less weight, or zero weight, given to mouth and nose fixations. However, this model could not successfully predict detection of subtle happiness, or extreme emotional expressions, with the exception of fear. These findings argue that detection of most subtle emotions is best served by fixations to the eyes, with some contribution from nose and mouth fixations. In contrast, detection of extreme emotions and subtle happiness appeared to be less dependent on fixation patterns. The results offer a new perspective on some puzzling dissociations in the neuropsychological literature, and a novel analytic approach for the study of eye gaze in social or emotional settings.

  20. Evaluation of stochastic weather generators for capturing the statistics of extreme precipitation events in the Catskill Mountain watersheds, New York State

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acharya, N.; Frei, A.; Owens, E. M.; Chen, J.

    2015-12-01

    Watersheds located in the Catskill Mountains area, part of the eastern plateau climate region of New York, contributes about 90% of New York City's municipal water supply, serving 9 million New Yorkers with about 1.2 billion gallons of clean drinking water each day. The New York City Department of Environmental Protection has an ongoing series of studies to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the availability of high quality water in this water supply system. Recent studies identify increasing trends in total precipitation and in the frequency of extreme precipitation events in this region. The objectives of the present study are: to analyze the proba­bilistic structure of extreme precipitation based on historical observations: and to evaluate the abilities of stochastic weather generators (WG), statistical models that produce synthetic weather time series based on observed statistical properties at a particular location, to simulate the statistical properties of extreme precipitation events over this region. The generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) has been applied to the annual block maxima of precipitation for 60 years (1950 to 2009) observed data in order to estimate the events with return periods of 50, 75, and 100 years. These results were then used to evaluate a total of 13 WGs were : 12 parametric WGs including all combinations of three different orders of Markov chain (MC) models (1st , 2nd and 3rd) and four different probability distributions (exponential, gamma, skewed normal and mixed exponential); and one semi parametric WG based on k-nearest neighbor bootstrapping. Preliminary results suggest that three-parameter (skewed normal and mixed exponential distribution) and semi-parametric (k-nearest neighbor bootstrapping) WGs are more consistent with observations. It is also found that first order MC models perform as well as second or third order MC models.

  1. Observed variability of summer precipitation pattern and extreme events in East China associated with variations of the East Asian summer monsoon: VARIABILITY OF SUMMER PRECIPITATION AND EXTREME EVENT IN EAST CHINA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Lei [School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, China; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Qian, Yun [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Zhang, Yaocun [School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, China; Zhao, Chun [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Leung, L. Ruby [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Huang, Anning [School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, China; Xiao, Chuliang [Cooperative Institute for Limnology and Ecosystems Research, School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor MI USA

    2015-11-09

    This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of interannual and interdecadal variations of summer precipitation and precipitation-related extreme events in China associated with variations of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) from 1979-2012. A high-quality daily precipitation dataset covering 2287 weather stations in China is analyzed. Based on the precipitation pattern analysis using empirical orthogonal functions, three sub-periods of 1979-1992 (period I), 1993-1999 (period II) and 2000-2012 (period III) are identified to be representative of the precipitation variability. Similar significant variability of the extreme precipitation indices is found across four sub-regions in eastern China. The spatial patterns of summer mean precipitation, the number of days with daily rainfall exceeding 95th percentile precipitation (R95p) and the maximum number of consecutive wet days (CWD) anomalies are consistent, but opposite to that of maximum consecutive dry days (CDD) anomalies during the three sub-periods. However, the spatial patterns of hydroclimatic intensity (HY-INT) are notably different from that of the other three extreme indices, but highly correlated to the dry events. The changes of precipitation anomaly patterns are accompanied by the change of the EASM regime and the abrupt shift of the position of the west Pacific subtropical high around 1992/1993 and 1999/2000, respectively, which influence the moisture transport that contributes most to the precipitation anomalies. Lastly, the EASM intensity is linked to sea surface temperature anomaly over the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean that influences deep convection over the oceans.

  2. Rainfall Variability and the Recent Climate Extremes in Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Weather patterns affecting the country are driven by the northward and southward ... Climatic and statistical analyses were employed to investigate two extreme ... of Nigeria have suffered from inter-annual to seasonal climatic variabilities and ...

  3. Using Atmospheric Circulation Patterns to Detect and Attribute Changes in the Risk of Extreme Climate Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Horton, D. E.; Singh, D.; Swain, D. L.; Touma, D. E.; Mankin, J. S.

    2015-12-01

    Because of the high cost of extreme events and the growing evidence that global warming is likely to alter the statistical distribution of climate variables, detection and attribution of changes in the probability of extreme climate events has become a pressing topic for the scientific community, elected officials, and the public. While most of the emphasis has thus far focused on analyzing the climate variable of interest (most often temperature or precipitation, but also flooding and drought), there is an emerging emphasis on applying detection and attribution analysis techniques to the underlying physical causes of individual extreme events. This approach is promising in part because the underlying physical causes (such as atmospheric circulation patterns) can in some cases be more accurately represented in climate models than the more proximal climate variable (such as precipitation). In addition, and more scientifically critical, is the fact that the most extreme events result from a rare combination of interacting causes, often referred to as "ingredients". Rare events will therefore always have a strong influence of "natural" variability. Analyzing the underlying physical mechanisms can therefore help to test whether there have been changes in the probability of the constituent conditions of an individual event, or whether the co-occurrence of causal conditions cannot be distinguished from random chance. This presentation will review approaches to applying detection/attribution analysis to the underlying physical causes of extreme events (including both "thermodynamic" and "dynamic" causes), and provide a number of case studies, including the role of frequency of atmospheric circulation patterns in the probability of hot, cold, wet and dry events.

  4. Breeding pond selection and movement patterns by eastern spadefoot toads (Scaphiopus holbrookii) in relation to weather and edaphic conditions.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greenberg, Cathryn H. [USDA Forest Service, New Ellenton, SC (United States); Tanner, George W. [USDA Forest Service, New Ellenton, SC (United States)

    2004-08-31

    Cathryn H. Greenberg and George W. Tanner. 2004. Breeding pond selection and movement patterns by eastern spadefoot toads (Scaphiopus holbrookii) in relation to weather and edaphic conditions. J. Herp. 38(4):569-577. Abstract: Eastern Spadefoot Toads (Scaphiopus holbrookii) require fish-free, isolated, ephemeral ponds for breeding but otherwise inhabit the surrounding uplands, commonly xeric longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) wiregrass (Aristida beyrichiana). Hence both pond and upland conditions can potentially affect their breeding biology, and population persistence. Hardwood invasion due to fire suppression in sandhills could alter upland and pond suitability by higher hardwood density and increased transpiration. In this paper we explore breeding and neonatal emigration movements in relation to weather, hydrological conditions of ponds, and surrounding upland matrices. We use 9 years of data from continuous monitoring with drift fences and pitfall traps at 8 ephemeral ponds in 2 upland matrices: regularly-burned, savanna-like sandhills (n = 4), and hardwood-invaded sandhills (n = 4). Neither adult nor neonate captures differed between ponds within the 2 upland matrices, suggesting that they are tolerant of upland heterogeneity created by fire frequency. Explosive breeding occurred during 9 periods and in all seasons; adults were captured rarely otherwise. At a landscape-level rainfall, maximum change in barometric pressure, and an interaction between those 2 variables were significant predictors of explosive breeding. At a pond-level, rainfall, change in pond depth during the month prior to breeding, and days since a pond was last dry were significant predictors of adult captures. Transformation date, rather than weather, was associated with neonatal emigrations, which usually were complete within a week. Movement by first-captured adults and neonates was directional, but adult emigrations were apparently not always toward their origin. Our results suggest that

  5. Solar Weather Ice Monitoring Station (SWIMS). A low cost, extreme/harsh environment, solar powered, autonomous sensor data gathering and transmission system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chetty, S.; Field, L. A.

    2013-12-01

    The Arctic ocean's continuing decrease of summer-time ice is related to rapidly diminishing multi-year ice due to the effects of climate change. Ice911 Research aims to develop environmentally respectful materials that when deployed will increase the albedo, enhancing the formation and/preservation of multi-year ice. Small scale deployments using various materials have been done in Canada, California's Sierra Nevada Mountains and a pond in Minnesota to test the albedo performance and environmental characteristics of these materials. SWIMS is a sophisticated autonomous sensor system being developed to measure the albedo, weather, water temperature and other environmental parameters. The system (SWIMS) employs low cost, high accuracy/precision sensors, high resolution cameras, and an extreme environment command and data handling computer system using satellite and terrestrial wireless communication. The entire system is solar powered with redundant battery backup on a floating buoy platform engineered for low temperature (-40C) and high wind conditions. The system also incorporates tilt sensors, sonar based ice thickness sensors and a weather station. To keep the costs low, each SWIMS unit measures incoming and reflected radiation from the four quadrants around the buoy. This allows data from four sets of sensors, cameras, weather station, water temperature probe to be collected and transmitted by a single on-board solar powered computer. This presentation covers the technical, logistical and cost challenges in designing, developing and deploying these stations in remote, extreme environments. Image captured by camera #3 of setting sun on the SWIMS station One of the images captured by SWIMS Camera #4

  6. Synoptic Pattern and Severe Weather Associated with the Wide Convection over Southeast China During the Summer Monsoon Period

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    汪会; 罗亚丽; 张人禾

    2015-01-01

    Based on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation radar observations, wide con-vection (WC) is defi ned as contiguous convective echoes over 40 dBZ, accompanied with a near surface rainfall area exceeding 1000 km2. In Southeast China, the maximal occurrence frequency of WC takes place over the fl at land region in the central plain of East China during the summer monsoon period of 1998–2010. When WC occurs in this region, the 500-hPa atmospheric fi elds are categorized into three patterns by using an objective classifi cation method, i.e., the deep-trough-control (DTr) pattern, the subtropical-high-maintenance (STH) pattern, and the typhoon-eff ect (Typh) pattern, which respectively accounts for 20.8%, 52.8%, and 26.4%of the total WC occurrences. The DTr pattern starts to emerge the earliest (16–31 May) and occurs the most often in the second half of June;the STH pattern has a signifi cant occurrence peak in the fi rst half of July;the Typh pattern occurs mostly in July and August. Nearly all WC occurrences in this region are associated with thunderstorms, due to large convective available potential energy and abundant moisture. Among the three synoptic patterns, the DTr pattern features the driest and coldest air in the region, leading to the least occurrences of short-duration heavy rainfall. Strong winds occur the most often under the DTr pattern, probably owing to the largest diff erence in air humidity between the mid and low troposphere. Hail at the surface is rare for all occurrences of WC, which is probably related to the humid environmental air under all weather patterns and the high (>5 km) freezing level under the STH pattern.

  7. Extreme sensory processing patterns show a complex association with depression, and impulsivity, alexithymia, and hopelessness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serafini, Gianluca; Gonda, Xenia; Canepa, Giovanna; Pompili, Maurizio; Rihmer, Zoltan; Amore, Mario; Engel-Yeger, Batya

    2017-03-01

    The involvement of extreme sensory processing patterns, impulsivity, alexithymia, and hopelessness was hypothesized to contribute to the complex pathophysiology of major depression and bipolar disorder. However, the nature of the relation between these variables has not been thoroughly investigated. This study aimed to explore the association between extreme sensory processing patterns, impulsivity, alexithymia, depression, and hopelessness. We recruited 281 euthymic participants (mean age=47.4±12.1) of which 62.3% with unipolar major depression and 37.7% with bipolar disorder. All participants completed the Adolescent/Adult Sensory Profile (AASP), Toronto Alexithymia Scale (TAS-20), second version of the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI-II), Barratt Impulsivity Scale (BIS), and Beck Hopelessness Scale (BHS). Lower registration of sensory input showed a significant correlation with depression, impulsivity, attentional/motor impulsivity, and alexithymia. It was significantly more frequent among participants with elevated hopelessness, and accounted for 22% of the variance in depression severity, 15% in greater impulsivity, 36% in alexithymia, and 3% in hopelessness. Elevated sensory seeking correlated with enhanced motor impulsivity and decreased non-planning impulsivity. Higher sensory sensitivity and sensory avoiding correlated with depression, impulsivity, and alexithymia. The study was limited by the relatively small sample size and cross-sectional nature of the study. Furthermore, only self-report measures that may be potentially biased by social desirability were used. Extreme sensory processing patterns, impulsivity, alexithymia, depression, and hopelessness may show a characteristic pattern in patients with major affective disorders. The careful assessment of sensory profiles may help in developing targeted interventions and improve functional/adaptive strategies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Patterns of extremity traumas leading to amputation in lran:results of Iranian National Trauma Project

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Majid Moini; Mohammad R Rasouli; Ali Khaji; Farshad Farshidfar; Pedram Heidari

    2009-01-01

    Obiective: To determine the patterns of traumatic extremity injuries leading to amputation in Iran.Methotis: Data of Iranian National Trauma Project was used to identify patients with upper and lower extremity traumas undergoing amputation.This project was conducted in 8 major cities during 2000-2004.Results: of 17 753 traumatic Patients,164 (0.92%) had injuries to the extremities that resulted in the limb amputation.Of these,143 (87.2%) were men.The patient's mean age was 29.0 years±15.4 years and the highest incidence was seen in the age group of 21 to 30 years (34.1%).One hundred and four cases were occupational accidents (63.4%).Blunt trauma was in 54.9% of the cases.The most common reasons for amputation were respectively stabbings (37.8%) and crush injuries (31.7%).Amputation of hand fingers was the most frequent type of amputation (125 cases,76.2%).One patient died from severe associated injuries.Conclusions: This study shows the patterns of traumatic limb amputation in Iran,a developing country.Resuits of this study may be used in preventive strategic planning.

  9. Holocene Landscape Dynamics in the Ammer Rv. Catchment (Bavarian Alps) - Influence of extreme weather events and land use on soil erosion using peat bogs as geoarchives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwindt, Daniel; Manthe, Pierre; Völkel, Jörg

    2016-04-01

    Soil degradation and the loss of soil organic carbon (SOC) induced by erosion events significantly influence soils and fertility as parts of the ecosystem services and play an important role with regard to global carbon dynamics. Soil erosion is strongly correlated with anthropogenic land use since the Neolithic Revolution around 8.000 BP. Likewise the effect of extreme weather events on soil erosion is of great interest with regard to the recent climate change debate, predicting a strong increase of extreme weather events. Aim of this study is the reconstruction of the Holocene landscape dynamic as influenced by land use and climate conditions. In this study peat bogs containing layers of colluvial sediments directly correlated to soil erosion were used as geoarchives for landscape dynamics. A temporal classification of extreme erosion events was established by dating organic material via 14C within both, colluvial layers as well as their direct peat surroundings. Detection and characterization of peat bogs containing colluvial sediments was based on geomorphological mapping, the application of geophysical methods (ERT - electrical resistivity tomography, GPR - ground penetrating radar) and core soundings. Laboratory analysis included the analysis of particle sizes and the content of organic material. We investigated 16 peat bogs following the altitudinal gradient of the Ammer River from alpine and subalpine towards lowland environments. A deposition of colluvial material could be detected in 4 peat bogs, all situated in the lower parts of the catchment. The minerogenic entry into peat bogs occurred throughout the Holocene as revealed by radiocarbon dating. A distinct cluster of erosional events e.g. during the little ice age could not be detected. Therefore, soil erosion dynamics and the appearance of colluvial sediments within peat bogs must rather be regarded as an effect of land use, actually farming and crop cultivation, or small-scale morphodynamic like

  10. Interannual Arctic sea ice variability and associated winter weather patterns: A regional perspective for 1979-2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hans W.; Alley, Richard B.; Zhang, Fuqing

    2016-12-01

    Using Arctic sea ice concentration derived from passive microwave satellite observations in autumn and early winter over the 1979-2014 period, the Arctic region was objectively classified into several smaller regions based on the interannual sea ice variability through self-organizing map analyses. The trend in regional sea ice extent (RSIE) in each region was removed using an adaptive, nonlinear, and nonstationary method called Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition, which captures well the accelerating decline of Arctic RSIEs in recent decades. Although the linear trend in RSIE is negative in all regions in both seasons, there are marked differences in RSIE trends and variability between regions, with the largest negative trends found during autumn in the Beaufort Sea, the Barents-Kara Seas, and the Laptev-East Siberian Seas. Winter weather patterns associated with the nonlinearly detrended RSIEs show distinct features for different regions and tend to be better correlated with the autumn than early winter RSIE anomalies. Sea ice losses in the Beaufort Sea and the Barents-Kara Seas are both associated with a cooling of Eurasia, but in the former case the circulation anomaly is reminiscent of a Rossby wave train, whereas in the latter case the pattern projects onto the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation. These results highlight the nonuniform changes in Arctic sea ice and suggest that regional sea ice variations may play a crucial role for the winter weather patterns.

  11. Impact of synoptic weather patterns and inter-decadal climate variability on air quality in the North China Plain during 1980-2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yang; Ding, Aijun; Mao, Huiting; Nie, Wei; Zhou, Derong; Liu, Lixia; Huang, Xin; Fu, Congbin

    2016-01-01

    Potential relationships between air quality, synoptic weather patterns, and the East Asian Monsoon (EAM) over the North China Plain (NCP) were examined during the time period of 1980-2013 using a weather typing technique and ground-based air pollution index (API) data from three cities: Beijing, Tianjin and Shijiazhuang. Using the Kirchhofer method, circulation patterns during the 34-yr study period were classified into 5 categories, which were further used to understand the quantitative relationship between weather and air quality in NCP. The highest API values were associated with a stagnant weather condition when wide-spread stable conditions controlled most part of NCP, while westerly and southerly wind flowed over the northern and eastern part of this region, resulting in both the regional transport and local build-up of air pollutants. Under the continuous control of this weather pattern, API values were found to increase at a rate of 8.5 per day on average. Based on the qualitative and quantitative analysis, a significant correlation was found between the strength of EAM and inter-annual variability of frequencies of the weather patterns. The strengthening of summer/winter monsoon could increase the frequency of occurrence of cyclone/anticyclone related weather patterns. Time series of climate-induced variability in API over the 34 years were reconstructed based on the quantitative relationship between API and predominant weather patterns during 2001-2010. Significant connections between EAM and reconstructed API were found on both the inter-annual and inter-decadal scales. In winter and summer, strengthening/weakening of EAM, which was generally associated with the change of the representative circulation patterns, could improve/worsen air quality in this region.

  12. Dismounted complex blast injuries: patterns of injuries and resource utilization associated with the multiple extremity amputee.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleming, Mark; Waterman, Scott; Dunne, James; D'Alleyrand, Jean-Claude; Andersen, Romney C

    2012-01-01

    The objective of this report is to analyze the resource utilization and injury patterns of complex dismounted blast injuries. A retrospective review of U.S. service members injured in combat between 2007 and 2010 was conducted. Data analyzed included age, injury mechanism, amputated limbs, number and type of associated injuries, blood products utilized, intensive care unit length of stay (ILOS), hospital length of stay (HLOS) and the Injury Severity Score (ISS). Patients were stratified based on the number of amputations. Sixty-three patients comprised the multiple extremity amputation (MEA) group. Ninety-eight percent sustained injuries from an improvised explosive device (IED) and 96% were dismounted. The ISS, number of surgical encounters, blood products utilized and ILOS were all clinically significantly different than controls. Care of multiple extremity amputees involves the utilization of significant resources. This knowledge may better help surgeons and administrators allocate assets at hospitals, both military and civilian, who care for this complex and challenging patient population.

  13. Weather Type classification over Chile; patterns, trends, and impact in precipitation and temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frias, T.; Trigo, R. M.; Garreaud, R.

    2009-04-01

    The Andes Cordillera induces considerable disturbances on the structure and evolution of the pressure systems that influences South America. Different weather types for southern South America are derived from the daily maps of geopotential height at 850hPa corresponding to a 42 year period, spanning from 1958 to 2000. Here we have used the ECWMF ERA-40 reanalysis dataset to construct an automated version of the Lamb Weather type (WTs) classification scheme (Jones et al., 1993) developed for the UK. We have identified 8 basic WTs (Cyclonic, Anticyclonic and 6 main directional types) following a similar methodology to that previously adopted by Trigo and DaCamara, 2000 (for Iberia). This classification was applied to two regions of study (CLnorth and CLsouth) which differ 20° in latitude, so that the vast Chile territory could be covered. Then were assessed the impact of the occurrence of this weather types in precipitation in Chile, as well as in the distribution of precipitation and temperature fields (reanalysis data) in southern half of South America. The results allow to conclude that the precipitation in central region of Chile is largely linked with the class occurrence (concerning CLnorth) of cyclonic circulation and of West quadrant (SW, W and NW), despite of it's relatively low frequency. In CLsouth, for its part, it is verified that the most frequent circulation is from the west quadrant, although the associated amount of rainfall is lower than in CLnorth. There was also a general decrease of precipitation at local weather stations chosen in the considered period of study, particularly in austral winter.

  14. Climatic patterns and extreme rainfalls on coastal areas in Central Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bramati, M. C.; Tarragoni, C.

    2012-04-01

    In this paper we focus on the extreme values analysis to estimate the rainfall return levels for some Adriatic and Tyrrhenian coastal areas in central Italy. Two approaches are mainly considered: the first one is based on the maximum annual daily rainfall series (1-day, 2-day and 3-day) for which suitable probability distributions are fitted, whereas the second one is based on the series of peaks over annual thresholds (POT) for which the best fitting Generalized Pareto distribution is identified. Spectral analysis and appropriate tests for stationarity and homogeneity are run in order to verify the hypothesis under which the analysis performed is valid. From the density plots and the parameter estimates of the fitted distributions to the various annual maximum rainfall series we can conclude that there is a different pattern in the occurrence of extreme events for the western coast with respect to the eastern coast. Specifically, on the Tyrrhenian side extreme rainfalls are more likely to happen in correspondence of longer time spans (i.e. 3-day series) as the effect of cumulated stable rainfalls over time. On the opposite, for the Adriatic coast extremes are more frequent in shorter time spans (1-day). A vector autoregressive model is then estimated and through a causal ordering the identifying restrictions are set. The impulse response analysis shows a lag in the transmission of rainfall shocks of the central Adriatic coast to the Tyrrhenian one. This paper is prepared as a background paper to the SECOA N1.2 Report: Assessment of frequency-magnitude of extreme rainfall events and flooding. Project SECOA (Solutions for Environmental contrast in Coastal Areas) is funded by the EU Commission within the 7th Framework Programme (2007-2013).

  15. Assessing the impact of extreme air temperature on fruit trees by modeling weather dependent phenology with variety-specific thermal requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfieri, Silvia Maria; De Lorenzi, Francesca; Missere, Daniele; Buscaroli, Claudio; Menenti, Massimo

    2013-04-01

    Extremely high and extremely low temperature may have a terminal impact on the productivity of fruit tree if occurring at critical phases of development. Notorious examples are frost during flowering or extremely high temperature during fruit setting. The dates of occurrence of such critical phenological stages depend on the weather history from the start of the yearly development cycle in late autumn, thus the impact of climate extremes can only be evaluated correctly if the phenological development is modeled taking into account the weather history of the specific year being evaluated. Climate change impact may lead to a shift in timing of phenological stages and change in the duration of vegetative and reproductive phases. A changing climate can also exhibit a greater climatic variability producing quite large changes in the frequency of extreme climatic events. We propose a two-stage approach to evaluate the impact of predicted future climate on the productivity of fruit trees. The phenological development is modeled using phase - specific thermal times and variety specific thermal requirements for several cultivars of pear, apricot and peach. These requirements were estimated using phenological observations over several years in Emilia Romagna region and scientific literature. We calculated the dates of start and end of rest completion, bud swell, flowering, fruit setting and ripening stages , from late autumn through late summer. Then phase-specific minimum and maximum cardinal temperature were evaluated for present and future climate to estimate how frequently they occur during any critically sensitive phenological phase. This analysis has been done for past climate (1961 - 1990) and fifty realizations of a year representative of future climate (2021 - 2050). A delay in rest completion of about 10-20 days has been predicted for future climate for most of the cultivars. On the other hand the predicted rise in air temperature causes an earlier development of

  16. The Effect of an Extreme and Prolonged Population Bottleneck on Patterns of Deleterious Variation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Casper-Emil T; Lohmueller, Kirk E; Grarup, Niels;

    2016-01-01

    to a markedly more extreme distribution of allele frequencies than seen for any other human population, making the Inuit the perfect population for investigating the effect of a bottleneck on patterns of deleterious variation. When comparing proxies for genetic load that assume an additive effect of deleterious......The genetic consequences of population bottlenecks on patterns of deleterious genetic variation in human populations are of tremendous interest. Based on exome sequencing of 18 Greenlandic Inuit here we show that the Inuit have undergone a severe ~20,000 year long bottleneck. This has led...... alleles, the Inuit show, at most, a slight increase in load compared to European, East Asian, and African populations. Specifically, we observe

  17. Knowledge Discovery, Integration and Communication for Extreme Weather and Flood Resilience Using Artificial Intelligence: Flood AI Alpha

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demir, I.; Sermet, M. Y.

    2016-12-01

    Nobody is immune from extreme events or natural hazards that can lead to large-scale consequences for the nation and public. One of the solutions to reduce the impacts of extreme events is to invest in improving resilience with the ability to better prepare, plan, recover, and adapt to disasters. The National Research Council (NRC) report discusses the topic of how to increase resilience to extreme events through a vision of resilient nation in the year 2030. The report highlights the importance of data, information, gaps and knowledge challenges that needs to be addressed, and suggests every individual to access the risk and vulnerability information to make their communities more resilient. This abstracts presents our project on developing a resilience framework for flooding to improve societal preparedness with objectives; (a) develop a generalized ontology for extreme events with primary focus on flooding; (b) develop a knowledge engine with voice recognition, artificial intelligence, natural language processing, and inference engine. The knowledge engine will utilize the flood ontology and concepts to connect user input to relevant knowledge discovery outputs on flooding; (c) develop a data acquisition and processing framework from existing environmental observations, forecast models, and social networks. The system will utilize the framework, capabilities and user base of the Iowa Flood Information System (IFIS) to populate and test the system; (d) develop a communication framework to support user interaction and delivery of information to users. The interaction and delivery channels will include voice and text input via web-based system (e.g. IFIS), agent-based bots (e.g. Microsoft Skype, Facebook Messenger), smartphone and augmented reality applications (e.g. smart assistant), and automated web workflows (e.g. IFTTT, CloudWork) to open the knowledge discovery for flooding to thousands of community extensible web workflows.

  18. Resilience Design Patterns - A Structured Approach to Resilience at Extreme Scale (version 1.1)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hukerikar, Saurabh [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Engelmann, Christian [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2016-12-01

    Reliability is a serious concern for future extreme-scale high-performance computing (HPC) systems. Projections based on the current generation of HPC systems and technology roadmaps suggest the prevalence of very high fault rates in future systems. The errors resulting from these faults will propagate and generate various kinds of failures, which may result in outcomes ranging from result corruptions to catastrophic application crashes. Therefore the resilience challenge for extreme-scale HPC systems requires management of various hardware and software technologies that are capable of handling a broad set of fault models at accelerated fault rates. Also, due to practical limits on power consumption in HPC systems future systems are likely to embrace innovative architectures, increasing the levels of hardware and software complexities. As a result the techniques that seek to improve resilience must navigate the complex trade-off space between resilience and the overheads to power consumption and performance. While the HPC community has developed various resilience solutions, application-level techniques as well as system-based solutions, the solution space of HPC resilience techniques remains fragmented. There are no formal methods and metrics to investigate and evaluate resilience holistically in HPC systems that consider impact scope, handling coverage, and performance & power efficiency across the system stack. Additionally, few of the current approaches are portable to newer architectures and software environments that will be deployed on future systems. In this document, we develop a structured approach to the management of HPC resilience using the concept of resilience-based design patterns. A design pattern is a general repeatable solution to a commonly occurring problem. We identify the commonly occurring problems and solutions used to deal with faults, errors and failures in HPC systems. Each established solution is described in the form of a pattern that

  19. Application of the Hess-Brezowsky classification to the identification of weather patterns causing heavy winter rainfall in Brittany (France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Planchon

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available An accurate knowledge of the weather patterns causing winter rainfall over the Scorff watershed in western Brittany (W. France was developed prior to studies of the impact of the climate factor on land use management, and of the hydrological reponses to rain-producing weather patterns. These two studies are carried out in the context of the climate change. The identification of rainy air-circulation types was realized using the objective computational version of the 29-type Hess and Brezowsky Grosswetterlagen system of classifying European synoptic regimes, for the cold season (November-March of the 1958–2005 period at the reference weather station of Lorient, and 13 other stations located in western and southern Brittany, including a more detailed study for the wet 2000–2001 cold season for three reference stations of the Scorff watershed (Lorient, Plouay and Plouray. The precipitation proportion (including the days with rainfall ≥20 mm was calculated by major air-circulation type (GWT: see Appendix A and by individual air-circulation subtype (GWL: see Appendix A for the studied time-period. The most frequently occurrence of rainy days associated with westerly and southerly GWL confirmed well-known observations in western Europe and so justify the use of the Hess-Brezowsky classification in other areas outside Central Europe. The southern or south-western exposure of the watershed with a hilly inland area enhanced the heavy rainfall generated by the SW and S circulation types, and increased the difference between the rainfall amounts of coastal and inland stations during the wettest days.

  20. Spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation extremes in the Poyang Lake basin, China: Changing properties and causes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, M.

    2016-12-01

    Under the background of climate change, extensive attentions have been paid on the increased extreme precipitation from the public and government. To analyze the influences of large-scale climate indices on the precipitation extremes, the spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation extremes in the Poyang Lake basin have been investigated using the Bayesian hierarchical method. The seasonal maximum one-day precipitation amount (Rx1day) was used to represent the seasonal precipitation extremes. Results indicated that spring Rx1day was affected by El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a positive ENSO event in the same year tends to decrease the spring Rx1day in the northern part of Poyang Lake Basin while increase the spring Rx1day in southeastern Poyang Lake Basin, a positive NAO events in the same year tends to increase the spring Rx1day in the southwest and northwest part of Poyang Lake basin while decrease the spring Rx1day in the eastern part of Poyang Lake basin; summer Rx1day was affected by Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), positive IOD events in the same year tend to increase the summer Rx1day of northern Poyang Lake basin while decrease summer Rx1day of southern Poyang Lake basin; autumn Rx1day was affected by ENSO, positive ENSO events in the same year tend to mainly increase the autumn Rx1day in the west part of Poyang Lake basin; winter Rx1day was mainly affected by the NAO, positive NAO events in the same year tend to mainly increase the winter Rx1day of southern Poyang Lake basin, while positive NAO events in the previous year tend to mainly increase the winter Rx1day in the central and northeast part of Poyang Lake basin. It is considered that the region with the negative vertical velocity is dominated by more precipitation and vice versa. Furthermore, field patterns of 500 hPa vertical velocity anomalies related to each climate index have further corroborated the influences of climate indices on the seasonal Rx1day, and

  1. Wintertime connections between extreme wind patterns in Spain and large-scale geopotential height field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pascual, A.; Martín, M. L.; Valero, F.; Luna, M. Y.; Morata, A.

    2013-03-01

    The present study is focused on the study of the variability and the most significant wind speed patterns in Spain during the winter season analyzing as well connections between the wind speed field and the geopotential height at 1000 hPa over an Atlantic area. The daily wind speed variability is investigated by means of principal components using wind speed observations. Five main modes of variation, accounting 66% of the variance of the original data, have been identified, highlighting their differences in the Spanish wind speed behavior. Connections between the wind speeds and the large-scale atmospheric field were underlined by means of composite maps. Composite maps were built up to give an averaged atmospheric circulation associated with extreme wind speed variability in Spain. Moreover, the principal component analysis was also applied to the geopotential heights, providing relationships between the large-scale atmospheric modes and the observational local wind speeds. Such relationships are shown in terms of the cumulated frequency values of wind speed associated with the extreme scores of the obtained large-scale atmospheric modes, showing those large-scale atmospheric patterns more dominant in the wind field in Spain.

  2. Extreme sensory processing patterns and their relation with clinical conditions among individuals with major affective disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel-Yeger, Batya; Muzio, Caterina; Rinosi, Giorgio; Solano, Paola; Geoffroy, Pierre Alexis; Pompili, Maurizio; Amore, Mario; Serafini, Gianluca

    2016-02-28

    Previous studies highlighted the involvement of sensory perception in emotional processes. However, the role of extreme sensory processing patterns expressed in hyper- or hyposensitivity was not thoroughly considered. The present study, in real life conditions, examined the unique sensory processing patterns of individuals with major affective disorders and their relationship with psychiatric symptomatology. The sample consisted of 105 participants with major affective conditions ranging in age from 20 to 84 years (mean=56.7±14.6). All participants completed the Temperament Evaluation of Memphis, Pisa, Paris and San Diego (TEMPS-A), the second version of the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI-II), and Adolescent/Adult Sensory Profile (AASP). Sensory sensitivity/avoiding hypersensitivity patterns and low registration (a hyposensitivity pattern) were prevalent among our sample as compared to normative data. About seventy percent of the sample showed lower seeking tendency. Stepwise regression analyses revealed that depression and anxious/cyclothymic affective temperaments were predicted by sensory sensory/avoiding. Anxious and irritable affective temperaments were predicted by low registration. Hyperthymic affective temperament and lower severity of depression were predicted by sensation seeking. Hyposensitivity or hypersensitivity may be "trait" markers of individuals with major affective disorders. Interventions should refer to the individual unique sensory profiles and their behavioral and functional impact in the context of real life.

  3. Viability of pattern shift for defect-free extreme ultraviolet lithography photomasks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Zhengqing John; Rankin, Jed; Narita, Eisuke; Kagawa, Masayuki

    2016-04-01

    Several challenges hinder extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUVL) photomask fabrication and its readiness for high-volume manufacturing (HVM). The lack in availability of pristine defect-free blanks as well as the absence of a robust mask repair technique mandates defect mitigation through pattern shift for the production of defect-free photomasks. By using known defect locations on a blank, the mask design can be intentionally shifted to avoid patterning directly over a defect. The work presented here provides a comprehensive look at pattern shift implementation to intersect EUV HVM for the 7-nm technology node (N7). An empirical error budget to compensate for various measurement errors, based on the latest HVM inspection and write tool capabilities, is first established and then verified postpatterning. The validated error budget is applied to 20 representative EUV blanks and pattern shift is performed using fully functional N7 chip designs that were recently used to fabricate working silicon-germanium devices. Probability of defect-free masks are explored for various N7 photomask levels, including metal, contact, and gate cut layers. From these results, an assessment is made on the current viability of defect-free EUV masks and what is required to construct a complete defect-free EUV mask set.

  4. Tracking pedestrians using local spatio-temporal motion patterns in extremely crowded scenes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kratz, Louis; Nishino, Ko

    2012-05-01

    Tracking pedestrians is a vital component of many computer vision applications, including surveillance, scene understanding, and behavior analysis. Videos of crowded scenes present significant challenges to tracking due to the large number of pedestrians and the frequent partial occlusions that they produce. The movement of each pedestrian, however, contributes to the overall crowd motion (i.e., the collective motions of the scene's constituents over the entire video) that exhibits an underlying spatially and temporally varying structured pattern. In this paper, we present a novel Bayesian framework for tracking pedestrians in videos of crowded scenes using a space-time model of the crowd motion. We represent the crowd motion with a collection of hidden Markov models trained on local spatio-temporal motion patterns, i.e., the motion patterns exhibited by pedestrians as they move through local space-time regions of the video. Using this unique representation, we predict the next local spatio-temporal motion pattern a tracked pedestrian will exhibit based on the observed frames of the video. We then use this prediction as a prior for tracking the movement of an individual in videos of extremely crowded scenes. We show that our approach of leveraging the crowd motion enables tracking in videos of complex scenes that present unique difficulty to other approaches.

  5. Differential imprints of different ENSO flavors in global patterns of seasonal precipitation extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiedermann, Marc; Siegmund, Jonatan F.; Donges, Jonathan F.; Donner, Reik V.

    2017-04-01

    The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with its positive (El Nino) and negative (La Nina) phases is known to trigger climatic responses in various parts of the Earth, an effect commonly attributed to teleconnectivity. A series of studies has demonstrated that El Nino periods exhibits a relatively broad variety of spatial patterns, which can be classified into two main flavors termed East Pacific (EP, canonical) and Central Pacific (CP, Modoki) El Nino, and that both subtypes can trigger distinct climatic responses like droughts vs. precipitation increases at the regional level. More recently, a similar discrimination of La Nina periods into two different flavors has been reported, and it is reasonable to assume that these different expressions are equally accompanied by differential responses of regional climate variability in particularly affected regions. In this work, we study in great detail the imprints of both types of El Nino and La Nina periods in extremal seasonal precipitation sums during fall (SON), winter (DJF) and spring (MAM) around the peak time of the corresponding ENSO phase. For this purpose, we employ a recently developed objective classification of El Nino and La Nina periods into their two respective flavors based on global teleconnectivity patterns in daily surface air temperature anomalies as captured by the associated climate network representations (Wiedermann et al., 2016). In order to study the statistical relevance of the timing of different El Nino and La Nina types on that of seasonal precipitation extremes around the globe (according to the GPCC data set as a reference), we utilize event coincidence analysis (Donges et al., 2016), a new powerful yet conceptually simple and intuitive statistical tool that allows quantifying the degree of simultaneity of distinct events in pairs of time series. Our results provide a comprehensive overview on ENSO related imprints in regional seasonal precipitation extremes. We demonstrate that key

  6. Tendencies of extreme values on rainfall and temperature and its relationship with teleconnection patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taboada, J. J.; Cabrejo, A.; Guarin, D.; Ramos, A. M.

    2009-04-01

    It is now very well established that yearly averaged temperatures are increasing due to anthropogenic climate change. In the area of Galicia (NW Spain) this trend has also been determined. Rainfall does not show a clear tendency in its yearly accumulated values. The aim of this work is to study different extreme indices of rainfall and temperatures analysing variability and possible trends associated to climate change. Station data for the study was provided by the CLIMA database of the regional government of Galicia (NW Spain). The definition of the extreme indices was taken from the joint CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team (ET) on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) This group has defined a set of standard extreme values to simplify intercomparison of data from different regions of the world. For the temperatures in the period 1960-2006, results show a significant increase of the number of days with maximum temperatures above the 90th percentile. Furthermore, a significant decrease of the days with maximum temperatures below the 10th percentile has been found. The tendencies of minimum temperatures are reverse: fewer nights with minimum temperatures below 10th percentile, and more with minimum temperatures above 90th percentile. Those tendencies can be observed all over the year, but are more pronounced in summer. This trend is expected to continue in the next decades because of anthropogenic climate change. We have also calculated the relationship between the above mentioned extreme values and different teleconnection patterns appearing in the North Atlantic area. Results show that local tendencies are associated with trends of EA (Eastern Atlantic) and SCA (Scandinavian) patterns. NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) has also some relationship with these tendencies, but only related with cold days and nights in winter. Rainfall index do not show any clear tendency on the annual scale. Nevertheless, the count of days when precipitation is greater than 20mm (R20

  7. Trends and Extremes Analysis of Daily Weather Data from a Site in the Capitanata Plain (Southern Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Domenico Vitale

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The impacts of the climate change for agriculture is an ambitious and unresolved topic due to the complexity of the natural phenomena. The high variability of the Mediterranean basin does not allow us to generalize with enough certainty the results obtained from other researches and other locations. Therefore, a site specific analysis in Capitanata plain was conducted. The aim is to provide a detailed picture of recent change in climate regime in one of the most important agricultural area of South Italy. Climate analysis was carried out and several indices of extreme events were studied on the basis of temperature and precipitation observations registered at experimental station ‘Podere 124’ (CRA-SCA. The period under study is 1979-2008. Increasing trends were identified for the summer season with an intensification of the number of heat waves.

  8. Resilience Design Patterns - A Structured Approach to Resilience at Extreme Scale (version 1.0)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hukerikar, Saurabh [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Engelmann, Christian [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2016-10-01

    Reliability is a serious concern for future extreme-scale high-performance computing (HPC) systems. Projections based on the current generation of HPC systems and technology roadmaps suggest that very high fault rates in future systems. The errors resulting from these faults will propagate and generate various kinds of failures, which may result in outcomes ranging from result corruptions to catastrophic application crashes. Practical limits on power consumption in HPC systems will require future systems to embrace innovative architectures, increasing the levels of hardware and software complexities. The resilience challenge for extreme-scale HPC systems requires management of various hardware and software technologies that are capable of handling a broad set of fault models at accelerated fault rates. These techniques must seek to improve resilience at reasonable overheads to power consumption and performance. While the HPC community has developed various solutions, application-level as well as system-based solutions, the solution space of HPC resilience techniques remains fragmented. There are no formal methods and metrics to investigate and evaluate resilience holistically in HPC systems that consider impact scope, handling coverage, and performance & power eciency across the system stack. Additionally, few of the current approaches are portable to newer architectures and software ecosystems, which are expected to be deployed on future systems. In this document, we develop a structured approach to the management of HPC resilience based on the concept of resilience-based design patterns. A design pattern is a general repeatable solution to a commonly occurring problem. We identify the commonly occurring problems and solutions used to deal with faults, errors and failures in HPC systems. The catalog of resilience design patterns provides designers with reusable design elements. We define a design framework that enhances our understanding of the important

  9. Linked Extreme Weather Events during Winter 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 in the Context of Northern Hemisphere Circulation Anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosart, L. F.; Archambault, H. M.; Cordeira, J. M.

    2011-12-01

    /PNA phase transition was associated with an extreme weather event that brought severe and record-setting cold to parts of the U.S. and Mexico, a powerful snow and ice storm in the Central U.S., and a subsequent and spectacular warm-up east of the Rockies. The purpose of this presentation will be to present an overview of the structure and evolution of the large-scale NH circulation anomalies during the 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 winters. Emphasis will be placed on showing how individual synoptic-scale weather events (e.g., recurving and transitioning western Pacific tropical cyclones, diabatically driven upper-level outflow from organized deep convection associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and western North Atlantic storminess) contributed to the formation of significant and persistent large-scale circulation anomalies and how these large-scale circulation anomalies in turn impacted the storm tracks, regional temperature and precipitation anomalies, and the associated extreme weather.

  10. Temporal variability of CO2 and N2O emissions in an agricultural long-term field trial regarding effects of different management practices and extreme weather effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koal, Philipp; Schilling, Rolf; Gerl, Georg; Pritsch, Karin; Munch, Jean Charles

    2016-04-01

    In order to achieve a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, modern agronomic management practices need to be established. Therefore, to assess the effect of different farming practices on greenhouse gas emissions, reliable data are required. The experiment covers and compares main aspects of agricultural management for a better implementation of sustainable land use. The focus lies on the determination and interpretation of greenhouse gas emissions, where the effects of diverse tillage systems and fertilisation practices of an integrated farming system as well as the impacts of extreme weather conditions are observed. In addition, with analysis of the alterable biological, physical and chemical soil properties a link between the impact of different management systems on greenhouse gas emissions and the observed cycle of matter in the soil, especially the nitrogen and carbon cycle, is enabled. Measurements have been carried out on long-term field trials at the Research Farm Scheyern located in a Tertiary hilly landscape approximately 40 km north of Munich (South Germany). The long-term integrated farming system trial was started in 1992. Since then parcels of land (each around 0.2-0.4 ha) with a particular interior plot set-up have been conducted with the same crop rotation, tillage and fertilisation practice referring to integrated farming management. Thus, the management impacts on the soil of more than 20 years have been examined. Fluxes of CH4, N2O and CO2 have been monitored since 2007 for the integrated farming system trial using an automated system which consists of chambers (0.4 m2 area) with a motor-driven lid, an automated gas sampling unit, an on-line gas chromatographic analysis system, and a control and data logging unit. Precipitation and temperature data have been observed for the experimental field to include weather effects. The main outcomes are the analysis of temporal and spatial dynamics of greenhouse gas emissions influenced by management

  11. Extreme fire severity patterns in topographic, convective and wind-driven historical wildfires of Mediterranean pine forests.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Judit Lecina-Diaz

    Full Text Available Crown fires associated with extreme fire severity are extremely difficult to control. We have assessed fire severity using differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR from Landsat imagery in 15 historical wildfires of Pinus halepensis Mill. We have considered a wide range of innovative topographic, fuel and fire behavior variables with the purposes of (1 determining the variables that influence fire severity patterns among fires (considering the 15 wildfires together and (2 ascertaining whether different variables affect extreme fire severity within the three fire types (topographic, convective and wind-driven fires. The among-fires analysis showed that fires in less arid climates and with steeper slopes had more extreme severity. In less arid conditions there was more crown fuel accumulation and closer forest structures, promoting high vertical and horizontal fuel continuity and extreme fire severity. The analyses carried out for each fire separately (within fires showed more extreme fire severity in areas in northern aspects, with steeper slopes, with high crown biomass and in climates with more water availability. In northern aspects solar radiation was lower and fuels had less water limitation to growth which, combined with steeper slopes, produced more extreme severity. In topographic fires there was more extreme severity in northern aspects with steeper slopes and in areas with more water availability and high crown biomass; in convection-dominated fires there was also more extreme fire severity in northern aspects with high biomass; while in wind-driven fires there was only a slight interaction between biomass and water availability. This latter pattern could be related to the fact that wind-driven fires spread with high wind speed, which could have minimized the effect of other variables. In the future, and as a consequence of climate change, new zones with high crown biomass accumulated in non-common drought areas will be available to burn

  12. Extreme fire severity patterns in topographic, convective and wind-driven historical wildfires of Mediterranean pine forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lecina-Diaz, Judit; Alvarez, Albert; Retana, Javier

    2014-01-01

    Crown fires associated with extreme fire severity are extremely difficult to control. We have assessed fire severity using differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) from Landsat imagery in 15 historical wildfires of Pinus halepensis Mill. We have considered a wide range of innovative topographic, fuel and fire behavior variables with the purposes of (1) determining the variables that influence fire severity patterns among fires (considering the 15 wildfires together) and (2) ascertaining whether different variables affect extreme fire severity within the three fire types (topographic, convective and wind-driven fires). The among-fires analysis showed that fires in less arid climates and with steeper slopes had more extreme severity. In less arid conditions there was more crown fuel accumulation and closer forest structures, promoting high vertical and horizontal fuel continuity and extreme fire severity. The analyses carried out for each fire separately (within fires) showed more extreme fire severity in areas in northern aspects, with steeper slopes, with high crown biomass and in climates with more water availability. In northern aspects solar radiation was lower and fuels had less water limitation to growth which, combined with steeper slopes, produced more extreme severity. In topographic fires there was more extreme severity in northern aspects with steeper slopes and in areas with more water availability and high crown biomass; in convection-dominated fires there was also more extreme fire severity in northern aspects with high biomass; while in wind-driven fires there was only a slight interaction between biomass and water availability. This latter pattern could be related to the fact that wind-driven fires spread with high wind speed, which could have minimized the effect of other variables. In the future, and as a consequence of climate change, new zones with high crown biomass accumulated in non-common drought areas will be available to burn as extreme

  13. Spatial patterns of sediment dynamics within a medium-sized watershed over an extreme storm event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Peng; Zhang, Zhirou

    2016-08-01

    In this study, we quantified spatial patterns of sediment dynamics in a watershed of 311 km2 over an extreme storm event using watershed modeling and statistical analyses. First, we calibrated a watershed model, Dynamic Watershed Simulation Model (DWSM) by comparing the predicted with calculated hydrograph and sedigraph at the outlet for this event. Then we predicted values of event runoff volume (V), peak flow (Qpeak), and two types of event sediment yields for lumped morphological units that contain 42 overland elements and 21 channel segments within the study watershed. Two overland elements and the connected channel segment form a first-order subwatershed, several of which constitute a larger nested subwatershed. Next we examined (i) the relationships between these variables and area (A), precipitation (P), mean slope (S), soil erodibility factor, and percent of crop and pasture lands for all overland elements (i.e., the small spatial scale, SSS), and (ii) those between sediment yield, Qpeak, A, P, and event runoff depth (h) for the first-order and nested subwatersheds along two main creeks of the study watershed (i.e., the larger spatial scales, LSS). We found that at the SSS, sediment yield was nonlinearly well related to A and P, but not Qpeak and h; whereas at the LSS, linear relationships between sediment yield and Qpeak existed, so did the Qpeak-A, and Qpeak-P relationships. This linearity suggests the increased connectivity from the SSS to LSS, which was caused by ignorance of channel processes within overland elements. It also implies that sediment was transported at capacity during the extreme event. So controlling sediment supply from the most erodible overland elements may not efficiently reduce the downstream sediment load.

  14. Muscle activation patterns of the upper and lower extremity during the windmill softball pitch.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliver, Gretchen D; Plummer, Hillary A; Keeley, David W

    2011-06-01

    Fast-pitch softball has become an increasingly popular sport for female athletes. There has been little research examining the windmill softball pitch in the literature. The purpose of this study was to describe the muscle activation patterns of 3 upper extremity muscles (biceps, triceps, and rhomboids [scapular stabilizers]) and 2 lower extremity muscles (gluteus maximus and medius) during the 5 phases of the windmill softball pitch. Data describing muscle activation were collected on 7 postpubescent softball pitchers (age 17.7 ± 2.6 years; height 169 ± 5.4 cm; mass 69.1 ± 5.4 kg). Surface electromyographic data were collected using a Myopac Jr 10-channel amplifier (RUN Technologies Scientific Systems, Laguna Hills, CA, USA) synchronized with The MotionMonitor™ motion capture system (Innovative Sports Training Inc, Chicago IL, USA) and presented as a percent of maximum voluntary isometric contraction. Gluteus maximus activity reached (196.3% maximum voluntary isometric contraction [MVIC]), whereas gluteus medius activity was consistent during the single leg support of phase 3 (101.2% MVIC). Biceps brachii activity was greatest during phase 4 of the pitching motion. Triceps brachii activation was consistently >150% MVIC throughout the entire pitching motion, whereas the scapular stabilizers were most active during phase 2 (170.1% MVIC). The results of this study indicate the extent to which muscles are activated during the windmill softball pitch, and this knowledge can lead to the development of proper preventative and rehabilitative muscle strengthening programs. In addition, clinicians will be able to incorporate strengthening exercises that mimic the timing of maximal muscle activation most used during the windmill pitching phases.

  15. Winter Storms and Extreme Cold

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Landslides & Debris Flow Nuclear Blast Nuclear Power Plants Power Outages Pandemic Radiological Dispersion Device Severe Weather Snowstorms & Extreme ... Landslides & Debris Flow Nuclear Blast Nuclear Power Plants Power Outages Pandemic Radiological Dispersion Device Severe Weather Snowstorms & Extreme ...

  16. Weather types and wind patterns classification in the Po Valley, during the PEGASOS field campaign (summer 2012)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonafe', Giovanni; Morgillo, Antonella; Minguzzi, Enrico

    2014-05-01

    The Po valley in Northern Italy is a semi-closed basin surrounded by complex orography. Surface winds are very weak (average wind speed is appoximately 2 m/s), and strong temperature inversions (also in excess of 10 degrees) are often observed near the ground and in the boundary layer. Moreover, the circulation in the lower troposphere is often affected by small scale phenomena such as sea breeze, mountain breeze, katabatic winds and surface temperature inversions. Since Po Valley is a densely populated and heavily industrialised area, air pollution is a major issue, and day to day pollutant concentrations are tightly linked with meteorological conditions. To schematically characterize the complex surface wind patterns in Po Valley, two classifications are performed with cluster analysis techniques: a large scale synoptic classification of weather types (WTs), and a wind pattern (WPs) classification focused on the south-eastern Po Valley. The link between WTs and WPs is investigated, and the statistical properties of other meteorological variables and pollutant concentrations are studied in connection with WTs and WPs. The classifications of WTs and WPs are finally used to assess the representativeness in time of the data collected during the intensive observation period of project Pegasos in summer 2012.

  17. Impacts of extreme hydro-meteorological conditions on ecosystem functioning and productivity patterns across Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huete, Alfredo; Ma, Xuanlong; Xie, Zunyi; Restrepo-Coupe, Natalia; Ponce-Campos, Guillermo

    2016-04-01

    As Earth's climate continues to change, the frequency and intensity of warm droughts, extreme precipitation patterns, and heat waves will alter in potentially different ways, ecosystem structure and functioning with major impacts on carbon and water balance, and food security. The extreme hydro-meteorological conditions that are presently impacting Australia approach those anticipated with future climate change and thus provide unique opportunities to study ecological sensitivity and functional responses and cross-biome productivity changes using contemporary, in-situ and satellite observational datasets. Here, we combined satellite vegetation index products from MODIS and AVHRR, total water storage (TWS) from the GRACE twin satellites, precipitation data and in-situ tower flux measurements to characterise ecosystem sensitivity, and analyse climate change impacts on ecosystem productivity and resilience. Recent advances in eddy covariance tower flux measurements and spatially contiguous remote sensing data provide innovative and promising capabilities to extend ecosystem functioning and productivity studies from local to regional and continental scales. In general, Australia exhibited ecosystem-level shifts in water demands with water availability across wet and dry years, and over all biomes analysed (arid grasslands to humid forests). In the drier years, higher ecosystem water use efficiencies (WUEe) enabled plants to maintain higher levels of productivity than would otherwise be expected for the lower amounts of rainfall and available water. Further, there were unique, functional class-specific coping strategies to drought and water availability. With prolonged warm drought conditions, biomes became increasingly water-limited and WUEe continued to increase until reaching a 'dry edge' threshold, a cross biome maximum WUEe, that cannot be sustained with further reductions in water availability and could potentially break down ecosystem resilience and induce

  18. Extreme precipitation and temperature responses to circulation patterns in current climate: statistical approaches

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Photiadou, C.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is likely to influence the frequency of extreme extremes - temperature, precipitation and hydrological extremes, which implies increasing risks for flood and drought events in Europe. In current climate, European countries were often not sufficiently prepared to deal with the great so

  19. Role of Acclimatization in Weather-Related Human Mortality During the Transition Seasons of Autumn and Spring in a Thermally Extreme Mid-Latitude Continental Climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Freitas, Christopher R; Grigorieva, Elena A

    2015-11-26

    Human mortality is closely related to natural climate-determined levels of thermal environmental stress and the resulting thermophysiological strain. Most climate-mortality research has focused on seasonal extremes during winter and summer when mortality is the highest, while relatively little attention has been paid to mortality during the transitional seasons of autumn and spring. The body acclimatizes to heat in the summer and cold in winter and readjusts through acclimatization during the transitions between the two during which time the body experiences the thermophysiological strain of readjustment. To better understand the influences of weather on mortality through the acclimatization process, the aim here is to examine the periods that link very cold and very warms seasons. The study uses the Acclimatization Thermal Strain Index (ATSI), which is a comparative measure of short-term thermophysiological impact on the body. ATSI centers on heat exchange with the body’s core via the respiratory system, which cannot be protected. The analysis is based on data for a major city in the climatic region of the Russian Far East characterized by very hot summers and extremely cold winters. The results show that although mortality peaks in winter (January) and is at its lowest in summer (August), there is not a smooth rise through autumn nor a smooth decline through spring. A secondary peak occurs in autumn (October) with a smaller jump in May. This suggests the acclimatization from warm-to-cold produces more thermophysiological strain than the transition from cold-to-warm. The study shows that ATSI is a useful metric for quantifying the extent to which biophysical adaptation plays a role in increased strain on the body during re-acclimatization and for this reason is a more appropriate climatic indictor than air temperature alone. The work gives useful bioclimatic information on risks involved in transitional seasons in regions characterized by climatic extremes. This

  20. Long-term climate and competition explain forest mortality patterns under extreme drought.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Derek J N; Stevens, Jens T; Earles, J Mason; Moore, Jeffrey; Ellis, Adam; Jirka, Amy L; Latimer, Andrew M

    2017-01-01

    Rising temperatures are amplifying drought-induced stress and mortality in forests globally. It remains uncertain, however, whether tree mortality across drought-stricken landscapes will be concentrated in particular climatic and competitive environments. We investigated the effects of long-term average climate [i.e. 35-year mean annual climatic water deficit (CWD)] and competition (i.e. tree basal area) on tree mortality patterns, using extensive aerial mortality surveys conducted throughout the forests of California during a 4-year statewide extreme drought lasting from 2012 to 2015. During this period, tree mortality increased by an order of magnitude, typically from tens to hundreds of dead trees per km(2) , rising dramatically during the fourth year of drought. Mortality rates increased independently with average CWD and with basal area, and they increased disproportionately in areas that were both dry and dense. These results can assist forest managers and policy-makers in identifying the most drought-vulnerable forests across broad geographic areas.

  1. On the Linkage between the Extreme Drought and Pluvial Patterns in China and the Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zengxin Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available China is a nation that is affected by a multitude of natural disasters, including droughts and floods. In this paper, the variations of extreme drought and pluvial patterns and their relations to the large-scale atmospheric circulation have been analyzed based on monthly precipitation data from 483 stations during the period 1958–2010 in China. The results show the following: (1 the extreme drought and pluvial events in China increase significantly during that period. During 1959–1966 timeframe, more droughts occur in South China and more pluvial events are found in North China (DSC-PNC pattern; as for the period 1997–2003 (PSC-DNC pattern, the situation is the opposite. (2 There are good relationships among the extreme drought and pluvial events and the Western Pacific Subtropical High, meridional atmospheric moisture flux, atmospheric moisture content, and summer precipitation. (3 A cyclone atmospheric circulation anomaly occurs in North China, followed by an obvious negative height anomaly and a southern wind anomaly at 850 hPa and 500 hPa for the DSC-PNC pattern during the summer, and a massive ascending airflow from South China extends to North China at ~50∘N. As for the PSC-DNC pattern, the situation contrasts sharply with the DSC-PNC pattern.

  2. Martian Meteorology: Determination of Large Scale Weather Patterns from Surface Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, James R.; Haberle, Robert M.; Bridger, Alison F. C.

    1998-01-01

    We employed numerical modelling of the martian atmosphere, and our expertise in understanding martian atmospheric processes, to better understand the coupling between lower and upper atmosphere processes. One practical application of this work has been our involvement with the ongoing atmospheric aerobraking which the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) spacecraft is currently undergoing at Mars. Dr. Murphy is currently a member of the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Aerobraking Atmospheric Advisory Group (AAG). He was asked to participate in this activity based upon his knowledge of martian atmospheric dynamical processes. Aerobraking is a process whereby a spacecraft, in an elliptical orbit, passes through the upper layers of the atmosphere (in this instance Mars). This passage through the atmosphere 'drags'upon the spacecraft, gradually reducing its orbital velocity. This has the effect, over time, of converting the elliptical orbit to a circular orbit, which is the desired mapping orbit for MGS. Carrying out aerobraking eliminates the need for carrying large amounts of fuel on the spacecraft to execute an engine burn to achieve the desired orbit. Eliminating the mass of the fuel reduces the cost of launch. Damage to one of MGS's solar panels shortly after launch has resulted in a less aggressive extended in time aerobraking phase which will not end until March, 1999. Phase I extended from Sept. 1997 through March 1998. During this time period, Dr. Murphy participated almost daily in the AAG meetings, and beginning in December 1997 lead the meeting several times per week. The leader of each of the daily AAG meetings took the results of that meeting (current state of the atmosphere, identification of any time trends or spatial patterns in upper atmosphere densities, etc.) forward to the Aerobraking Planning Group (APG) meeting, at which time the decision was made to not change MGS orbit, to lower the orbit to reach higher densities (greater 'drag'), or raise the orbit to avoid

  3. Progress in the development of ATHAM-Fluidity: A new high-resolution atmospheric model for simulating localised extreme weather events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savre, Julien; Herzog, Michael; Percival, James; Pain, Chris

    2016-04-01

    Within the framework of the EU FP7-PEARL (Preparing for Extreme And Rare events in coastaL regions) project, a new high-resolution non hydrostatic atmospheric model is currently developed: ATHAM-Fluidity. Unlike many existing atmospheric models, ATHAM-Fluidity's dynamical core is based on a mixed finite-element discretisation designed to operate on unstructured and adaptive meshes, for an optimized use of computational power. The model is designed to simulate extreme weather conditions at local scales (on the order of 50x50 km2) and will ultimately help better understand and assess the impacts of heavy precipitation events in coastal areas. As such, ATHAM-Fluidity will constitute an important component of a suite of multi-physics models, including for example storm surge and flood modelling systems, whose role will particularly consist in producing high-resolution precipitation maps in areas of interest. A series of case studies identified within PEARL (for example Greve, Denmark, an area particularly vulnerable to floods and storm surges) will be further investigated using ATHAM-Fluidity and this integrated modelling framework. In order to successfully achieve its tasks, ATHAM-Fluidity must be equipped with a series of physical parameterisations to capture the formation and evolution of clouds and heavy precipitation. After a careful evaluation of ATHAM-Fluidity under dry atmospheric conditions [Savre et al., submitted to MWR 2015] for which the performances of the dynamical core and mesh adaptivity algorithm have been assessed, the model has recently been extended to handle moist atmospheric conditions and clouds. These new developments include the implementation of ATHAM's active tracer concept to account for atmospheric moisture and hydrometeors, as well as a warm two-moment bulk microphysics scheme to parameterise the formation and evolution of liquid clouds and precipitation. In addition, a turbulence diffusion closure, specifically designed for Large Eddy

  4. Robust inferences on climate change patterns of precipitation extremes in the Iberian Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Melo-Gonçalves, Paulo; Rocha, Alfredo; Santos, João A.

    2016-08-01

    This work presents a methodology to make statistical significant and robust inferences on climate change from an ensemble of model simulations. This methodology is used to assess climate change projections of the Iberian daily-total precipitation for a near-future (2021-2050) and a distant-future (2069-2098) climates, relatively to a reference past climate (1961-1990). Climate changes of precipitation spatial patterns are estimated for annual and seasonal values of: (i) total amount of precipitation (PRCTOT), (ii) maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD), (iii) maximum of total amount of 5-consecutive wet days (Rx5day), and (iv) percentage of total precipitation occurred in days with precipitation above the 95th percentile of the reference climate (R95T). Daily-total data were obtained from the multi-model ensemble of fifteen Regional Climate Model simulations provided by the European project ENSEMBLES. These regional models were driven by boundary conditions imposed by Global Climate Models that ran under the 20C3M conditions from 1961 to 2000, and under the A1B scenario, from 2001 to 2100, defined by the Special Report on Emission Scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Non-parametric statistical methods are used for significant climate change detection: linear trends for the entire period (1961-2098) estimated by the Theil-Sen method with a statistical significance given by the Mann-Kendall test, and climate-median differences between the two future climates and the past climate with a statistical significance given by the Mann-Whitney test. Significant inferences of climate change spatial patterns are made after these non-parametric statistics of the multi-model ensemble median, while the associated uncertainties are quantified by the spread of these statistics across the multi-model ensemble. Significant and robust climate change inferences of the spatial patterns are then obtained by building the climate change patterns using only the

  5. Pattern of learning disabilities in children with extremely low birth weight and broadly average intelligence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grunau, Ruth Eckstein; Whitfield, Michael F; Davis, Cynthia

    2002-06-01

    To examine the prevalence and pattern of specific areas of learning disability (LD) in neurologically normal children with extremely low birth weight (ELBW) (intelligence compared with full-term children with normal birth weight of comparable sociodemographic background, and to explore concurrent cognitive correlates of the specific LDs. Longitudinal follow-up; geographically defined region. Regional follow-up program. Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-Revised, Gray Oral Reading Test-Revised, Test of Written Language-Revised, Wide Range Achievement Test-Revised, Developmental Test of Visual-Motor Integration. One hundred fourteen (87%) of 131 children with ELBW born between 1982 and 1987 were seen at ages 8 to 9 years. Of the 114 children, 74, who were neurologically normal, with a Verbal or Performance IQ greater than or equal to 85, formed the study group. A group of 30 full-term children with normal birth weight and similar sociodemographic status comprised a comparison group. The children were predominantly white and middle class. Significantly more children with ELBW (65%) met criteria for LD in 1 or more areas compared with 13% of the comparison children. In the ELBW group, the most frequently affected area was written output, then arithmetic, then reading. Visuospatial and visual-motor abilities in combination with verbal functioning primarily explained performance in arithmetic and reading among children with ELBW, unlike the control children, whose scores were associated only with verbal functioning. Complex LDs in multiple academic domains are common sequelae among broadly middle class, predominantly white, neurologically normal children with ELBW compared with control peers. The developmental etiology of LDs in children with ELBW and control peers differs.

  6. The comparison of two heavy fuel oils in composition and weathering pattern, based on IR, GC-FID and GC-MS analyses: application to the Prestige wreackage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Varela, R; Andrade, J M; Muniategui, S; Prada, D; Ramírez-Villalobos, F

    2009-03-01

    This paper compares the weathering patterns of two similar fuel oils: a fuel oil spilled after a ship accident (Prestige-Nassau, off the Galician coast -NW Spain-) and a fuel designed to cope with the numerous quests for samples to carry out scientific studies (IFO). Comparative studies were made to evaluate the capability of common fingerprinting analytical techniques to differentiate the fuels, as well as their capabilities to monitor their weathering. The two products were spilled under controlled conditions during ca. four months to assess how they evolved on time. Mid-IR spectrometry and gas chromatography (flame ionization and mass spectrometry detectors) were used. IR indexes related to total aromaticity, type of substituents (branched or linear chains) and degree of aromatic substitution reflected well the differences between the fuels during weathering. Regarding the chromatographic measurements, the n-alkanes became highly reduced for both fuel oils and it was found that the PAHs of the synthetic fuel (IFO) were more resistant to weathering. Regarding biomarkers, the different profiles of the steranes, diasteranes and triaromatic steroids allowed for a simple differentiation amongst the two products. The %D2/P2 ratio differentiated both products whereas the %N3/P2 one ordered the samples according to the extent of their weathering.

  7. Linkage of cave-ice changes to weather patterns inside and outside the cave Eisriesenwelt (Tennengebirge, Austria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Schöner

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The behaviour of perennial ice masses in karst caves in relation to the outside climate is still not well understood, though a significant potential of the cave-ice for paleo-climate reconstructions could be expected. This study investigates the relationship between weather patterns inside and outside the cave Eisriesenwelt (Austrian Alps and the ice-surface changes of the ice-covered part of the cave from extensive measurements. It is shown that under recent climate the cave ice mass balance is more sensitive to winter climate for the inner parts of the cave and sensitive to winter and summer climate for the entrance near parts of the cave. For recent climate conditions ice surface changes can be well described from cave atmosphere measurements, indicating a clear annual cycle with weak mass loss in winter due to sublimation, stable ice conditions in spring until summer (autumn for the remoter parts of the cave and significant melt in late summer to autumn (for the entrance near parts of the cave. Interestingly, surface ice melt plays a minor role for ablation at the inner parts of the cave. Based on our measurements and other observations it is rather likely that sublimation was the major source for ice loss in Eisriesenwelt since the begin of the 20th century. Build-up of the ice in spring (as expected from theory was not observed as a general feature of the ice dynamics. Generally, the ice body currently appears in a quite balanced state, though the influence of show-cave management on ice mass-balance could not be clearly quantified.

  8. Upper extremity kinematics and muscle activation patterns in subjects with facioscapulohumeral dystrophy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bergsma, A.; Murgia, A.; Cup, E.H.C.; Verstegen, P.P.; Meijer, K.; Groot, I.J.M. de

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To compare the kinematics and muscle activity of subjects with facioscapulohumeral dystrophy (FSHD) and healthy control subjects during the performance of standardized upper extremity tasks. DESIGN: Exploratory case-control study. SETTING: A movement laboratory. PARTICIPANTS: Subjects

  9. Upper Extremity Kinematics and Muscle Activation Patterns in Subjects With Facioscapulohumeral Dystrophy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bergsma, Arjen; Murgia, Alessio; Cup, Edith H.; Verstegen, Paul P.; Meijer, Kenneth; de Groot, Imelda J.

    Objective: To compare the kinematics and muscle activity of subjects with facioscapulohumeral dystrophy (FSHD) and healthy control subjects during the performance of standardized upper extremity tasks. Design: Exploratory case-control study. Setting: A movement laboratory. Participants: Subjects

  10. Upper Extremity Kinematics and Muscle Activation Patterns in Subjects With Facioscapulohumeral Dystrophy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bergsma, Arjen; Murgia, Alessio; Cup, Edith H.; Verstegen, Paul P.; Meijer, Kenneth; de Groot, Imelda J.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To compare the kinematics and muscle activity of subjects with facioscapulohumeral dystrophy (FSHD) and healthy control subjects during the performance of standardized upper extremity tasks. Design: Exploratory case-control study. Setting: A movement laboratory. Participants: Subjects (N=

  11. Computer system for the assessment of radiation situation in the cases of radiological accidents and extreme weather conditions in the Chernobyl exclusion zone

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Talerko, M.; Garger, E.; Kuzmenko, A. [Institute for Safety Problems of Nuclear Power Plants (Ukraine)

    2014-07-01

    Radiation situation within the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone (ChEZ) is determined by high radionuclides contamination of the land surface formed after the 1986 accident, as well as the presence of a number of potentially hazardous objects (the 'Shelter' object, the Interim Spent Nuclear Fuel Dry Storage Facility ISF-1, radioactive waste disposal sites, radioactive waste temporary localization sites etc.). The air concentration of radionuclides over the ChEZ territory and radiation exposure of personnel are influenced by natural and anthropogenic factors: variable weather conditions, forest fires, construction and excavation activity etc. The comprehensive radiation monitoring and early warning system in the ChEZ was established under financial support of European Commission in 2011. It involves the computer system developed for assessment and prediction of radiological emergencies consequences in the ChEZ ensuring the protection of personnel and the population living near its borders. The system assesses radiation situation under both normal conditions in the ChEZ and radiological emergencies which result in considerable radionuclides emission into the air (accidents at radiation hazardous objects, extreme weather conditions). Three different types of radionuclides release sources can be considered in the software package. So it is based on a set of different models of emission, atmospheric transport and deposition of radionuclides: 1) mesoscale model of radionuclide atmospheric transport LEDI for calculations of the radionuclides emission from stacks and buildings; 2) model of atmospheric transport and deposition of radionuclides due to anthropogenic resuspension from contaminated area (area surface source model) as a result of construction and excavation activity, heavy traffic etc.; 3) model of resuspension, atmospheric transport and deposition of radionuclides during grassland and forest fires in the ChEZ. The system calculates the volume and surface

  12. Evaluation of large-scale meteorological patterns associated with temperature extremes in the NARCCAP regional climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loikith, Paul C.; Waliser, Duane E.; Lee, Huikyo; Neelin, J. David; Lintner, Benjamin R.; McGinnis, Seth; Mearns, Linda O.; Kim, Jinwon

    2015-12-01

    Large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) associated with temperature extremes are evaluated in a suite of regional climate model (RCM) simulations contributing to the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. LSMPs are characterized through composites of surface air temperature, sea level pressure, and 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies concurrent with extreme temperature days. Six of the seventeen RCM simulations are driven by boundary conditions from reanalysis while the other eleven are driven by one of four global climate models (GCMs). Four illustrative case studies are analyzed in detail. Model fidelity in LSMP spatial representation is high for cold winter extremes near Chicago. Winter warm extremes are captured by most RCMs in northern California, with some notable exceptions. Model fidelity is lower for cool summer days near Houston and extreme summer heat events in the Ohio Valley. Physical interpretation of these patterns and identification of well-simulated cases, such as for Chicago, boosts confidence in the ability of these models to simulate days in the tails of the temperature distribution. Results appear consistent with the expectation that the ability of an RCM to reproduce a realistically shaped frequency distribution for temperature, especially at the tails, is related to its fidelity in simulating LMSPs. Each ensemble member is ranked for its ability to reproduce LSMPs associated with observed warm and cold extremes, identifying systematically high performing RCMs and the GCMs that provide superior boundary forcing. The methodology developed here provides a framework for identifying regions where further process-based evaluation would improve the understanding of simulation error and help guide future model improvement and downscaling efforts.

  13. The influence of weather types on the urban heat island’s magnitude and patterns at Paranhos, Oporto : a case study from November 2003 to January 2005

    OpenAIRE

    Balkestahl, Licínia; Monteiro, Ana; Góis, Joaquim; Taesler, Roger; Quénol, Hervé

    2006-01-01

    Oporto is a medium size city on the NW coast of Portugal with approximately 300 000 inhabitants that has experienced an intense urbanization process especially after 1970. Results from daily field work from November 2003 to January 2005 show several different thermal nocturnal pattern in Paranhos, Oporto, some of which we conclude can easily be related to different weather types. Our main purpose is to demonstrate the diversity of Oporto’s climatic subsystem resolution processes under generic...

  14. Communication on urban resilience to extreme weather: challenges and achievements in the dialogue between the international scientific community and local stakeholders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vicari, Rosa; Gires, Auguste; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel

    2014-05-01

    The frequency and damages caused by pluvial floods in European cities are expected to increase as a consequence of climate change and urban development. New solutions are needed at local level to cope with extreme storm events and to reduce risks and costs on populations and infrastructures, in particular in disadvantaged urban areas. The HM&Co team (LEESU & Chair 'Hydrology for Resilient Cities' sponsored by Veolia) aims to develop resilient urban systems with the help of innovative technologies, tools and practices based in particular on the use of high-resolution data, simulations, forecasts and management. Indeed, the availability of fine-scale rainfall data, due to the improved reliability of recent low-cost weather radars, opens up prospects for new forms of local urban flood risk management, which requires exchange of information with local actors and their full cooperation with researchers. This demands a large collaboration ranging from regional to international levels, e.g. the RadX@IdF project (Regional Council of Paris Region), the RainGain project (EU Interreg programme) and Blue Green Dream project (Climate-KIC programme), TOMACS (World Meteorological Organisation). These research projects and programmes include awareness raising and capacity building activities aimed to stimulate cooperation between scientists, professionals (e.g. water managers, urban planners) and beneficiaries (e.g. concerned citizens, policy makers). A dialogue between these actors is indeed needed to bring together the know-how from different countries and areas of expertise, avoid fragmentation and link it to the needs of the local stakeholders. Without this "conductive environment", research results risk to remain unexploited. After a general description of the background communication needs, this presentation will illustrate the outreach practices that are carried out by the HM&Co team. The major challenges will be also discussed, some examples are: narrating research

  15. Indirect consequences of extreme weather and climate events and their associations with physical health in coastal Bangladesh: a cross-sectional study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dominik Beier

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: Bangladesh is one of the countries in the world which is most prone to natural disasters. The overall situation is expected to worsen, since extreme weather and climate events (EWCE are likely to increase in both frequency and intensity. Indirect consequences caused in the events’ aftermath widen the range of possible adverse health outcomes. Objective: To assess the association of indirect consequences of EWCE and physical health. Design: We used recent cross-sectional self-reported data from 16 coastal villages in Bangladesh. A total of 980 households were surveyed using a structured questionnaire. The outcome of physical health was categorized into three groups, reflecting the severity of reported diseases by the respective source of treatment as a proxy variable (hospital/clinic for severe disease, other source/no treatment for moderate disease, and no disease. The final statistical analysis was conducted using multinomial logistic regression. Results: Severe diseases were significantly associated with drinking water from open sources [odds ratio (OR: 4.26, 95% confidence interval (CI: 2.25–8.09] and tube wells (OR: 2.39, 95% CI: 1.43–4.01, moderate harm by river erosion (OR: 6.24, 95% CI: 2.76–14.11, food scarcity (OR: 1.98, 95% CI: 1.16–3.40, and the perception of increased employment problems (OR: 2.19, 95% CI: 1.18–4.07. Moderate diseases were significantly associated with moderate harm by river erosion (OR: 2.65, 95% CI: 1.28–5.48 and fully experienced food scarcity (OR: 1.75, 95% CI: 1.16–2.63. For both categories, women and the elderly had higher chances for diseases. Conclusions: Indirect consequences of EWCE were found to be associated with adverse health outcomes. Basic needs such as drinking water, food production, and employment opportunities are particularly likely to become threatened by EWCE and, thus, may lead to a higher likelihood of ill-health. Intervention strategies should concentrate on

  16. Indirect consequences of extreme weather and climate events and their associations with physical health in coastal Bangladesh: a cross-sectional study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beier, Dominik; Brzoska, Patrick; Khan, Mobarak Hossain

    2015-01-01

    Background Bangladesh is one of the countries in the world which is most prone to natural disasters. The overall situation is expected to worsen, since extreme weather and climate events (EWCE) are likely to increase in both frequency and intensity. Indirect consequences caused in the events’ aftermath widen the range of possible adverse health outcomes. Objective To assess the association of indirect consequences of EWCE and physical health. Design We used recent cross-sectional self-reported data from 16 coastal villages in Bangladesh. A total of 980 households were surveyed using a structured questionnaire. The outcome of physical health was categorized into three groups, reflecting the severity of reported diseases by the respective source of treatment as a proxy variable (hospital/clinic for severe disease, other source/no treatment for moderate disease, and no disease). The final statistical analysis was conducted using multinomial logistic regression. Results Severe diseases were significantly associated with drinking water from open sources [odds ratio (OR): 4.26, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.25–8.09] and tube wells (OR: 2.39, 95% CI: 1.43–4.01), moderate harm by river erosion (OR: 6.24, 95% CI: 2.76–14.11), food scarcity (OR: 1.98, 95% CI: 1.16–3.40), and the perception of increased employment problems (OR: 2.19, 95% CI: 1.18–4.07). Moderate diseases were significantly associated with moderate harm by river erosion (OR: 2.65, 95% CI: 1.28–5.48) and fully experienced food scarcity (OR: 1.75, 95% CI: 1.16–2.63). For both categories, women and the elderly had higher chances for diseases. Conclusions Indirect consequences of EWCE were found to be associated with adverse health outcomes. Basic needs such as drinking water, food production, and employment opportunities are particularly likely to become threatened by EWCE and, thus, may lead to a higher likelihood of ill-health. Intervention strategies should concentrate on protection and

  17. An evaluation study of WRF-ARW model with observations during a usual low pressure system over eastern Mediterranean area (Greece) and comparison of the results with an extreme weather event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emmanouil, George; Vlachogiannis, Diamanto; Sfetsos, Athanasios; Karozis, Stelios; Tasopoulou, Antonia

    2016-04-01

    The accurate simulation of weather conditions is becoming more and more an issue of increased research interest and public demand. Because of the uncertainty in forecasting such phenomena, the investigation of the choice of a proper model configuration to simulate in a satisfactory way usual weather conditions, as well as extreme events is of crucial importance. In the framework of providing reliable weather forecasting, the WRF atmospheric model was employed to simulate the weather conditions during a usual for the area low pressure system that passed over the Greek peninsula during 2015 (September, 18-24). NCEP FNL analysis data were used for model input. The model configuration was setup to include three nested domains with increasing horizontal resolution inwards (11km, 2km and 0.5km respectively), centered in Attica area. The model parameterization was concluded following a number of sensitivity tests, previously carried out for other weather events including extremes in the same area, such as the Cleopatra cyclone. The main meteorological variables were analyzed and evaluation of the results was performed against in-situ measurements by the network of the Hellenic National Meteorological Service stations. The comparison of the September low-pressure event and the Cleopatra case study model results in temperature showed good agreement with the observations in both cases. Study of the precipitation fields yielded significant improvement compared to the analysis data of the NCEP FNL and the comparison between the model results and observed values was found to be good locally at some stations. The overall conclusion was that the model parameterization and applied methodology proved to be an efficient and useful tool for studying and forecasting such events.

  18. Classification of weather patterns to study the influence of meteorological characteristics on PM2.5 concentrations in Yunlin County, Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Chia-Hua; Cheng, Fang-Yi

    2016-11-01

    Yunlin County is located in the central part of western Taiwan with major emissions from the Mailiao industrial park, the Taichung Power Plants and heavy traffic. In order to understand the influence of meteorological conditions on PM2.5 concentrations in Yunlin County, we applied a two-stage cluster analysis method using the daily averaged surface winds from four air quality monitoring stations in Yunlin County to classify the weather pattern. The study period includes 1095 days from Jan 2013 to December 2015. The classification results show that the low PM2.5 concentration occurs when the synoptic weather in Taiwan is affected by the strong southwesterly monsoonal flow. The high PM2.5 concentration occurs when Taiwan is under the influence of weak synoptic weather conditions and continental high-pressure peripheral circulation. A high PM2.5 event was studied and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorological model was performed. The result indicated that due to being blocked by the Central Mountain Range, Yunlin County, which is situated on the leeside of the mountains, exhibits low wind speed and strong subsidence behavior that favors PM2.5 accumulation.

  19. Long-term aging and degradation of microplastic particles: Comparing in situ oceanic and experimental weathering patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandon, Jennifer; Goldstein, Miriam; Ohman, Mark D

    2016-09-15

    Polypropylene, low-density polyethylene, and high-density polyethylene pre-production plastic pellets were weathered for three years in three experimental treatments: dry/sunlight, seawater/sunlight, and seawater/darkness. Changes in chemical bond structures (hydroxyl, carbonyl groups and carbon-oxygen) with weathering were measured via Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy. These indices from experimentally weathered particles were compared to microplastic particles collected from oceanic surface waters in the California Current, the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre, and the transition region between the two, in order to estimate the exposure time of the oceanic plastics. Although chemical bonds exhibited some nonlinear changes with environmental exposure, they can potentially approximate the weathering time of some plastics, especially high-density polyethylene. The majority of the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre polyethylene particles we measured have inferred exposure times>18months, with some >30months. Inferred particle weathering times are consistent with ocean circulation models suggesting a long residence time in the open ocean. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Weather Conditions, Weather Information and Car Crashes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriaan Perrels

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Road traffic safety is the result of a complex interaction of factors, and causes behind road vehicle crashes require different measures to reduce their impacts. This study assesses how strongly the variation in daily winter crash rates associates with weather conditions in Finland. This is done by illustrating trends and spatiotemporal variation in the crash rates, by showing how a GIS application can evidence the association between temporary rises in regional crash rates and the occurrence of bad weather, and with a regression model on crash rate sensitivity to adverse weather conditions. The analysis indicates that a base rate of crashes depending on non-weather factors exists, and some combinations of extreme weather conditions are able to substantially push up crash rates on days with bad weather. Some spatial causation factors, such as variation of geophysical characteristics causing systematic differences in the distributions of weather variables, exist. Yet, even in winter, non-spatial factors are normally more significant. GIS data can support optimal deployment of rescue services and enhance in-depth quantitative analysis by helping to identify the most appropriate spatial and temporal resolutions. However, the supportive role of GIS should not be inferred as existence of highly significant spatial causation.

  1. Correlating microbial diversity patterns with geochemistry in an extreme and heterogeneous environment of mine tailings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jun; Hua, Zheng-Shuang; Chen, Lin-Xing; Kuang, Jia-Liang; Li, Sheng-Jin; Shu, Wen-Sheng; Huang, Li-Nan

    2014-06-01

    Recent molecular surveys have advanced our understanding of the forces shaping the large-scale ecological distribution of microbes in Earth's extreme habitats, such as hot springs and acid mine drainage. However, few investigations have attempted dense spatial analyses of specific sites to resolve the local diversity of these extraordinary organisms and how communities are shaped by the harsh environmental conditions found there. We have applied a 16S rRNA gene-targeted 454 pyrosequencing approach to explore the phylogenetic differentiation among 90 microbial communities from a massive copper tailing impoundment generating acidic drainage and coupled these variations in community composition with geochemical parameters to reveal ecological interactions in this extreme environment. Our data showed that the overall microbial diversity estimates and relative abundances of most of the dominant lineages were significantly correlated with pH, with the simplest assemblages occurring under extremely acidic conditions and more diverse assemblages associated with neutral pHs. The consistent shifts in community composition along the pH gradient indicated that different taxa were involved in the different acidification stages of the mine tailings. Moreover, the effect of pH in shaping phylogenetic structure within specific lineages was also clearly evident, although the phylogenetic differentiations within the Alphaproteobacteria, Deltaproteobacteria, and Firmicutes were attributed to variations in ferric and ferrous iron concentrations. Application of the microbial assemblage prediction model further supported pH as the major factor driving community structure and demonstrated that several of the major lineages are readily predictable. Together, these results suggest that pH is primarily responsible for structuring whole communities in the extreme and heterogeneous mine tailings, although the diverse microbial taxa may respond differently to various environmental conditions.

  2. Correlating Microbial Diversity Patterns with Geochemistry in an Extreme and Heterogeneous Environment of Mine Tailings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jun; Hua, Zheng-Shuang; Chen, Lin-Xing; Kuang, Jia-Liang; Li, Sheng-Jin; Shu, Wen-Sheng

    2014-01-01

    Recent molecular surveys have advanced our understanding of the forces shaping the large-scale ecological distribution of microbes in Earth's extreme habitats, such as hot springs and acid mine drainage. However, few investigations have attempted dense spatial analyses of specific sites to resolve the local diversity of these extraordinary organisms and how communities are shaped by the harsh environmental conditions found there. We have applied a 16S rRNA gene-targeted 454 pyrosequencing approach to explore the phylogenetic differentiation among 90 microbial communities from a massive copper tailing impoundment generating acidic drainage and coupled these variations in community composition with geochemical parameters to reveal ecological interactions in this extreme environment. Our data showed that the overall microbial diversity estimates and relative abundances of most of the dominant lineages were significantly correlated with pH, with the simplest assemblages occurring under extremely acidic conditions and more diverse assemblages associated with neutral pHs. The consistent shifts in community composition along the pH gradient indicated that different taxa were involved in the different acidification stages of the mine tailings. Moreover, the effect of pH in shaping phylogenetic structure within specific lineages was also clearly evident, although the phylogenetic differentiations within the Alphaproteobacteria, Deltaproteobacteria, and Firmicutes were attributed to variations in ferric and ferrous iron concentrations. Application of the microbial assemblage prediction model further supported pH as the major factor driving community structure and demonstrated that several of the major lineages are readily predictable. Together, these results suggest that pH is primarily responsible for structuring whole communities in the extreme and heterogeneous mine tailings, although the diverse microbial taxa may respond differently to various environmental conditions

  3. Disturbed moving patterns when drumming - influence of extreme tempi on percussionists with and without focal dystonia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahl, Sofia; Altenmüller, Eckart

    , studying the movements of percussionists offers a promising method of comparing healthy and disturbed moving patterns for individual players. 2. AIMS: To investigate the influence of nominal tempo on movement pattern and timing variability for healthy percussionists and those suffering from focal dystonia......: At this early stage, the results should not be generalized. However, this type of research could provide valuable insights in how movement patterns change in response to more demanding playing conditions. Such knowledge would have important implications for music teaching and education....

  4. Using a weather generator to downscale spatio-temporal precipitation at urban scale

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørup, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen; Christensen, Ole Bøssing; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    /ECHAM and HIRHAM/ECHAM, A1B scenario and 25 km spatial scale) and two models run just for southern Scandinavia (both HIRHAM/EC-EARTH, rcp 4.5 and rcp 8.5 scenarios and 8 km spatial scale). All datasets are at one-hour time resolution. All models result in marked different perturbation schemes for the weather...... realistic extreme statistics. The model satisfactorily reproduces extreme statistics down to the one-hour scale and further produces realistic spatial correlation patterns at the rain event level. This is also the case for the extreme events. Furthermore, the weather generator is able to reproduce...

  5. Gait pattern and lower extremity alignment in children with Morquio syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhawale, Arjun A; Church, Chris; Henley, John; Holmes, Laurens; Thacker, Mihir M; Mackenzie, William G; Miller, Freeman

    2013-01-01

    The gait in children with Morquio syndrome (MPS IV) has not been previously described. We reviewed the charts, gait analysis reports, and radiographs of nine children with no previous lower extremity surgery. Children with MPS IV had a slower walking speed, reduced cadence, and reduced stride length as compared with normal (P<0.05). There was increased knee flexion, genu valgus, and external tibial torsion during stance (P<0.05). Kinetics showed that knee varus moment was increased (P<0.05). There was a strong correlation between genu valgus measured on gait analysis and standing radiographs (r=0.89).

  6. Linking spatio-temporal patterns in land cover dynamics with regional climate factors and recent weather: Application to the Flint Hills of Kansas and Oklahoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Henebry, G.M.; Goodin, D.G. [Kansas State Univ., Manhattan, KS (United States); Su, H. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States)] [and others

    1995-06-01

    A key obstacle to developing regional models of ecosystem dynamics is representation of spatio-temporal variation in constituent patterns and processes. Simple resealing of site-specific ecological data or simulations to broader spatial scales is unlikely to capture regional spatio-temporal dynamics. Yet logistical constraints usually require synoptic weather data to be synthesized from sparse data networks. We seek a simple top-down model that links remotely-sensed vegetation cover with antecedent meteorological forcings to generate boundary conditions for site-specific fine-resolution data and simulations of tallgrass prairie. We developed several candidate models using AVHRR NDVI maximum biweekly composites of the Flint Hills from 1990-1993 and data from a network of more than 60 weather stations across the 40,000 km2 region. Models combined parameters derived from exemplary land cover trajectories, spatial structure (lacunarity and correlation length), and running weighted sums of weather data. Spectral-temporal models were easier to fit; lacunarity was more sensitive than correlation length; compositing effects were strong.

  7. Selective Light-Induced Patterning of Carbon Nanotube/Silver Nanoparticle Composite To Produce Extremely Flexible Conductive Electrodes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Inhyuk; Woo, Kyoohee; Zhong, Zhaoyang; Lee, Eonseok; Kang, Dongwoo; Jeong, Sunho; Choi, Young-Man; Jang, Yunseok; Kwon, Sin; Moon, Jooho

    2017-02-22

    Recently, highly flexible conductive features have been widely demanded for the development of various electronic applications, such as foldable displays, deformable lighting, disposable sensors, and flexible batteries. Herein, we report for the first time a selective photonic sintering-derived, highly reliable patterning approach for creating extremely flexible carbon nanotube (CNT)/silver nanoparticle (Ag NP) composite electrodes that can tolerate severe bending (20 000 cycles at a bending radius of 1 mm). The incorporation of CNTs into a Ag NP film can enhance not only the mechanical stability of electrodes but also the photonic-sintering efficiency when the composite is irradiated by intense pulsed light (IPL). Composite electrodes were patterned on various plastic substrates by a three-step process comprising coating, selective IPL irradiation, and wiping. A composite film selectively exposed to IPL could not be easily wiped from the substrate, because interfusion induced strong adhesion to the underlying polymer substrate. In contrast, a nonirradiated film adhered weakly to the substrate and was easily removed, enabling highly flexible patterned electrodes. The potential of our flexible electrode patterns was clearly demonstrated by fabricating a light-emitting diode circuit and a flexible transparent heater with unimpaired functionality under bending, rolling, and folding.

  8. Final Results from A Pilot Project to Investigate Wake Vortex Patterns and Weather Patterns at the Atlantic City Airport by the Richard Stockton College of NJ and the FAA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trout, Joseph; Manson, J. Russell; King, David; Decicco, Nicolas; Prince, Alyssa; di Mercurio, Alexis; Rios, Manual

    2017-01-01

    Wake Vortex Turbulence is the turbulence generated by an aircraft in flight. This turbulence is created by vortices at the tips of the wing that may decay slowly and persist for several minutes after creation. These vortices and turbulence are hazardous to other aircraft in the vicinity. The strength, formation and lifetime of the turbulence and vortices are effected by many things including the weather. Here we present the final results of the pilot project to investigation of low level wind fields generated by the Weather Research and Forecasting Model and an analysis of historical data. The findings from the historical data and the data simulations were used as inputs for the computational fluid dynamics model (OpenFoam) to show that the vortices could be simulated using OpenFoam. Presented here are the updated results from a research grant, ``A Pilot Project to Investigate Wake Vortex Patterns and Weather Patterns at the Atlantic City Airport by the Stockton University and the FAA''.

  9. Biodiversity patterns of plankton assemblages at the extremes of the Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Pearman, John K.

    2016-01-07

    The diversity of microbial plankton has received limited attention in the main basin of the Red Sea. This study investigates changes in the community composition and structure of prokaryotes and eukaryotes at the extremes of the Red Sea along cross-shelf gradients and between the surface and deep chlorophyll maximum. Using molecular methods to target both the 16S and 18S rRNA genes, it was observed that the dominant prokaryotic classes were Acidimicrobiia, Alphaproteobacteria and Cyanobacteria, regardless of the region and depth. The eukaryotes Syndiniophyceae and Dinophyceae between them dominated in the north, with Bacillariophyceae and Mamiellophyceae more prominent in the southern region. Significant differences were observed for prokaryotes and eukaryotes for region, depth and distance from shore. Similarly, it was noticed that communities became less similar with increasing distance from the shore. Canonical correspondence analysis at the class level showed that Mamiellophyceae and Bacillariophyceae correlated with increased nutrients and chlorophyll a found in the southern region, which is influenced by the input of Gulf of Aden Intermediate Water.

  10. Common Patterns of Congenital Lower Extremity Shortening: Diagnosis, Classification, and Follow-up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bedoya, Maria A; Chauvin, Nancy A; Jaramillo, Diego; Davidson, Richard; Horn, B David; Ho-Fung, Victor

    2015-01-01

    Congenital lower limb shortening is a group of relatively rare, heterogeneous disorders. Proximal focal femoral deficiency (PFFD) and fibular hemimelia (FH) are the most common pathologic entities in this disease spectrum. PFFD is characterized by variable degrees of shortening or absence of the femoral head, with associated dysplasia of the acetabulum and femoral shaft. FH ranges from mild hypoplasia to complete absence of the fibula with variable shortening of the tibia. The development of the lower limb requires complex and precise gene interactions. Although the etiologies of PFFD and FH remain unknown, there is a strong association between the two disorders. Associated congenital defects in the lower extremity are found in more than 50% of patients with PFFD, ipsilateral FH being the most common. FH also has a strong association with shortening and bowing of the tibia and with foot deformities such as absence of the lateral rays of the foot. Early diagnosis and radiologic classification of these abnormalities are imperative for appropriate management and surgical planning. Plain radiography remains the main diagnostic imaging modality for both PFFD and FH, and appropriate description of the osseous abnormalities seen on radiographs allows accurate classification, prognostic evaluation, and surgical planning. Minor malformations may commonly be misdiagnosed.

  11. Extreme variation between blood and fibroblast DNA patterns in mosaic fragile X males

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dobkin, C.; Ding, S.; Nolin, S. [New York State Institute for Basic Research in Developmental Disabilities, Staten Island, NY (United States)] [and others

    1994-09-01

    The fragile X mutation is the expansion of a CGG repeat in the 5{prime} untranslated region of the FMR-1 gene to > 200 repeats. This expansion to the {open_quotes}full mutation{close_quotes} probably occurs during early embryogenesis in individuals who inherit a {open_quotes}premutation{close_quotes} allele containing >50 and <200 repeats. Analysis of blood samples from a series of 148 fragile X males showed that 40% were {open_quotes}mosaics{close_quotes} who carried a mixture of premutation and full mutation alleles. The proportion of the premutation allele varied widely which suggested that there may have been differences in the way the repeat expanded during development. We examined a subset of these affected {open_quotes}mosaic{close_quotes} males who exhibited very different mosaic DNA patterns. Southern blot analysis showed that these males had a range of approximately 10 to 80% premutation allele in their blood DNA. In fibroblast DNA, however, the premutation allele was present at less than 10% in all of these affected males. Since erythrocyte stem cell precursors appear to be established from a yolk sac lineage,earlier in development compared to skin fibroblasts, we hypothesize that this difference in the extent of mosaicism may reflect variation in the progression of the CGG expansion during development. The differences in the proportion of mosaic alleles in different tissues may also help explain the weak correlation between the mosaic DNA patterns of blood samples from mosaic males and their degree of mental retardation.

  12. Shoulder muscle recruitment patterns and related biomechanics during upper extremity sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escamilla, Rafael F; Andrews, James R

    2009-01-01

    Understanding when and how much shoulder muscles are active during upper extremity sports is helpful to physicians, therapists, trainers and coaches in providing appropriate treatment, training and rehabilitation protocols to these athletes. This review focuses on shoulder muscle activity (rotator cuff, deltoids, pectoralis major, latissimus dorsi, triceps and biceps brachii, and scapular muscles) during the baseball pitch, the American football throw, the windmill softball pitch, the volleyball serve and spike, the tennis serve and volley, baseball hitting, and the golf swing. Because shoulder electromyography (EMG) data are far more extensive for overhead throwing activities compared with non-throwing upper extremity sports, much of this review focuses on shoulder EMG during the overhead throwing motion. Throughout this review shoulder kinematic and kinetic data (when available) are integrated with shoulder EMG data to help better understand why certain muscles are active during different phases of an activity, what type of muscle action (eccentric or concentric) occurs, and to provide insight into the shoulder injury mechanism. Kinematic, kinetic and EMG data have been reported extensively during overhead throwing, such as baseball pitching and football passing. Because shoulder forces, torques and muscle activity are generally greatest during the arm cocking and arm deceleration phases of overhead throwing, it is believed that most shoulder injuries occur during these phases. During overhead throwing, high rotator cuff muscle activity is generated to help resist the high shoulder distractive forces approximately 80-120% bodyweight during the arm cocking and deceleration phases. During arm cocking, peak rotator cuff activity is 49-99% of a maximum voluntary isometric contraction (MVIC) in baseball pitching and 41-67% MVIC in football throwing. During arm deceleration, peak rotator cuff activity is 37-84% MVIC in baseball pitching and 86-95% MVIC in football

  13. Winter Weather: Indoor Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Part 3 of 3) Hot Weather Tips Heat Stress in Older Adults FAQs Extreme Heat PSAs Related Links MMWR Bibliography CDC's Program Floods Flood Readiness Personal Hygiene After a Disaster Cleanup of Flood Water After a Flood Worker Safety Educational Materials Floods ...

  14. Winter Weather: Frostbite

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Part 3 of 3) Hot Weather Tips Heat Stress in Older Adults FAQs Extreme Heat PSAs Related Links MMWR Bibliography CDC's Program Floods Flood Readiness Personal Hygiene After a Disaster Cleanup of Flood Water After a Flood Worker Safety Educational Materials Floods ...

  15. Winter Weather Checklists

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Part 3 of 3) Hot Weather Tips Heat Stress in Older Adults FAQs Extreme Heat PSAs Related Links MMWR Bibliography CDC's Program Floods Flood Readiness Personal Hygiene After a Disaster Cleanup of Flood Water After a Flood Worker Safety Educational Materials Floods ...

  16. Municipalities' Preparedness for Weather Hazards and Response to Weather Warnings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehiriz, Kaddour; Gosselin, Pierre

    2016-01-01

    The study of the management of weather-related disaster risks by municipalities has attracted little attention even though these organizations play a key role in protecting the population from extreme meteorological conditions. This article contributes to filling this gap with new evidence on the level and determinants of Quebec municipalities’ preparedness for weather hazards and response to related weather warnings. Using survey data from municipal emergency management coordinators and secondary data on the financial and demographic characteristics of municipalities, the study shows that most Quebec municipalities are sufficiently prepared for weather hazards and undertake measures to protect the population when informed of imminent extreme weather events. Significant differences between municipalities were noted though. Specifically, the level of preparedness was positively correlated with the municipalities’ capacity and population support for weather-related disaster management policies. In addition, the risk of weather-related disasters increases the preparedness level through its effect on population support. We also found that the response to weather warnings depended on the risk of weather-related disasters, the preparedness level and the quality of weather warnings. These results highlight areas for improvement in the context of increasing frequency and/or severity of such events with current climate change. PMID:27649547

  17. Contrasting extreme long-distance migration patterns in bar-tailed godwits Limosa lapponica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battley, Phil F.; Warnock, Nils; Tibbitts, T. Lee; Gill, Robert E.; Piersma, Theunis; Hassell, Chris J.; Douglas, David C.; Mulcahy, Daniel M.; Gartrell, Brett D.; Schuckard, Rob; Melville, David S.; Riegen, Adrian C.

    2012-01-01

    populations exhibit extreme flight performance, and bauerimakes the longest (southbound) and second-longest (northbound) non-stop migratory flights documented for any bird. Both subspecies essentially make single stops when moving between non-breeding and breeding sites in opposite hemispheres. This reinforces the critical importance of the intertidal habitats used by fuelling godwits in Australasia, the Yellow Sea, and Alaska.

  18. Extreme climatic events in relation to global change and their impact on life histories

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Juan MORENO; Anders Pape Mφller

    2011-01-01

    Extreme weather conditions occur at an increasing rate as evidenced by higher frequency of hurricanes and more extreme precipitation and temperature anomalies. Such extreme environmental conditions will have important implications for all living organisms through greater frequency of reproductive failure and reduced adult survival. We review examples of reproductive failure and reduced survival related to extreme weather conditions. Phenotypic plasticity may not be sufficient to allow adaptation to extreme weather for many animals. Theory predicts reduced reproductive effort as a response to increased stochasticity. We predict that patterns of natural selection will change towards truncation selection as environmental conditions become more extreme. Such changes in patterns of selection may facilitate adaptation to extreme events. However, effects of selection on reproductive effort are difficult to detect. We present a number of predictions for the effects of extreme weather conditions in need of empirical tests. Finally, we suggest a number of empirical reviews that could improve our ability to judge the effects of extreme environmental conditions on life history.

  19. Extreme climatic events in relation to global change and their impact on life histories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan MORENO, Anders Pape Møller

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Extreme weather conditions occur at an increasing rate as evidenced by higher frequency of hurricanes and more extreme precipitation and temperature anomalies. Such extreme environmental conditions will have important implications for all living organisms through greater frequency of reproductive failure and reduced adult survival. We review examples of reproductive failure and reduced survival related to extreme weather conditions. Phenotypic plasticity may not be sufficient to allow adaptation to extreme weather for many animals. Theory predicts reduced reproductive effort as a response to increased stochasticity. We predict that patterns of natural selection will change towards truncation selection as environmental conditions become more extreme. Such changes in patterns of selection may facilitate adaptation to extreme events. However, effects of selection on reproductive effort are difficult to detect. We present a number of predictions for the effects of extreme weather conditions in need of empirical tests. Finally, we suggest a number of empirical reviews that could improve our ability to judge the effects of extreme environmental conditions on life history [Current Zoology 57 (3: 375–389, 2011].

  20. Rivers as archives of paleo-precipitation patterns and extreme precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plink-Bjorklund, Piret

    2016-04-01

    Fluvial systems commonly experience hysteresis and complex signal buffering effects that complicate tracking of allogenic forcing factors and autogenic processes. This paper presents a study of 52 modern and ancient fluvial datasets where river dynamics are dominated by highly seasonal precipitation pattern, such as in monsoonal domain and the bordering subtropical arid to sub-humid climate zones. Rivers that receive significant amounts of their surface water supply from monsoon precipitation characteristically experience seasonal floods, and display seasonally highly variable discharge, controlled by the monsoon trough passage and its related cyclones. The intense summer rainfall causes high-magnitude floods, whereas rivers only transmit a low base flow during the dry winters. Also for many rivers in the sub-humid to arid subtropics, bordering the monsoon domain, the monsoon rain is the main source of surface water recharge. However, such rivers may receive monsoon rain and transmit discharge only during abnormal or strengthened monsoon seasons. This annual discharge variability or range, as compared to the mean annual discharge, distinguishes the monsoonal and subtropical rivers from the rivers in equatorial tropics and temperate perennial precipitation zones, where the annual range is relatively small compared to the annual mean discharge. The positive deviation is clearly demonstrated by comparing the Q90 values to the mean discharge values, indicating flood discharge or magnitude values of >200-400% as compared to the annual mean discharge. Moreover, Q50 values of rivers that receive their surface water supply from monsoon precipitation are less than 10% of the annual mean discharge in some such rivers, and range from 20-50% in most. In comparison, in perennial precipitation zone rivers the Q90 values are within110-160% as compared to the annual mean, and the Q50 values are very close to the annual mean discharge, within 90-98%. Even Q30 values for the

  1. Can decision rules simulate carbon allocation for years with contrasting and extreme weather conditions? A case study for three temperate beech forests

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Campioli, Matteo; Verbeeck, Hans; Van den Bossche, Joris

    2013-01-01

    The allocation of carbohydrates to different tree processes and organs is crucial to understand the overall carbon (C) cycling rate in forest ecosystems. Decision rules (DR) (e.g. functional balances and source-sink relationships) are widely used to model C allocation in forests. However, standard......) and for two contrasting sites not used for parameterisation (the beech forest of Sorø, Denmark, for 1999-2006, and Collelongo, Italy, for 2005-2006). At Hesse, 2003 was characterised by a severe and extreme drought and heat wave. The standard DR allocation scheme captured the average annual dynamics of C...... of the standard DR allocation model to simulate year-to-year variability was limited. The amended DR allocation scheme improved the annual simulations and allowed capturing the stand growth dynamics at Hesse during the extreme 2003 summer and its important lag effect on next year's wood production. Modelling...

  2. The XIV Global Warming International Conference & Expo (GWXIV)——Global extreme events

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JamesA.Roberts

    2004-01-01

    The focus of this year's conference is Global Extreme Events, characterized as large-scale climatic effects that have been increasing in magnitude and frequency. Prof. Sinyan Shen, Chairman of the GW International Program Committee, has been leading the world on Global Extreme Events and Emergency Response. In the long term climate change will cause the Earth to transit to another equilibrium state through many oscillations in climatic pattern. Global warming causes extreme events and bad weather in the near term. The immediate

  3. Modeling spatial patterns of wildfire susceptibility in southern California: Applications of MODIS remote sensing data and mesoscale numerical weather models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Philipp

    This dissertation investigates the potential of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery and mesoscale numerical weather models for mapping wildfire susceptibility in general and for improving the Fire Potential Index (FPI) in southern California in particular. The dissertation explores the use of the Visible Atmospherically Resistant Index (VARI) from MODIS data for mapping relative greenness (RG) of vegetation and subsequently for computing the FPI. VARI-based RG was validated against in situ observations of live fuel moisture. The results indicate that VARI is superior to the previously used Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for computing RG. FPI computed using VARI-based RG was found to outperform the traditional FPI when validated against historical fire detections using logistic regression. The study further investigates the potential of using Multiple Endmember Spectral Mixture Analysis (MESMA) on MODIS data for estimating live and dead fractions of vegetation. MESMA fractions were compared against in situ measurements and fractions derived from data of a high-resolution, hyperspectral sensor. The results show that live and dead fractions obtained from MODIS using MESMA are well correlated with the reference data. Further, FPI computed using MESMA-based green vegetation fraction in lieu of RG was validated against historical fire occurrence data. MESMA-based FPI performs at a comparable level to the traditional NDVI-based FPI, but can do so using a single MODIS image rather than an extensive remote sensing time series as required for the RG approach. Finally this dissertation explores the potential of integrating gridded wind speed data obtained from the MM5 mesoscale numerical weather model in the FPI. A new fire susceptibility index, the Wind-Adjusted Fire Potential Index (WAFPI), was introduced. It modifies the FPI algorithm by integrating normalized wind speed. Validating WAFPI against historical wildfire events using

  4. Extreme weather/climate events and disaster prevention and mitigation under global warming background%气候变暖背景下的极端天气气候事件与防灾减灾

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    翟盘茂; 刘静

    2012-01-01

    The definitions of extreme weather/climate events and "climate extreme" are discussed in the paper. On the basis of classifying the extreme events into four categories ( namely extremes caused by variations in a single variable, events related to weather phenomena, compound events and climate extremes) , the related extreme indices as well as their trends and corresponding impacts under the background of global warming are summarized. The results showed that intense precipitation events over mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River tend to be more frequent. Heat waves in eastern China are stronger and drought trend in northeast China and northern China, especially at the end of 20th century and at the beginning of 21 century, is increasing. Furthermore, drought events are frequent in southwest China over recent ten years. In order to minimize losses caused by the increasing meteorological disasters, it is extraordinary essential to strengthen the capability in monitoring and warning of high-impact extremes. Meanwhile, it is also necessary to strengthen engineering defense measures based on changes in extreme events to prevent flash floods and urban waterlogged disasters induced by intense precipitation as well as droughts and heat waves associated with insufficient precipitation.%首先概括极端天气气候事件以及“气候极值”的相关定义,并把极端事件分为单要素的极端事件、与天气现象有关的极端事件、多要素极端事件和极端气候事件.在此基础上,总结上述几类极端事件在气候变暖背景下的变化趋势及影响.指出气候变暖背景下我国长江中下游区域强降水事件更趋频繁,我国东部地区高温热浪天气更为明显;东北华北地区干旱趋势增加,尤其在20世纪末期和21世纪初期最为明显;近10年来西南地区干旱频繁发生.为减轻日益增加的重大气象灾害的损失,我国有必要加强高影响极端事件的监测、预警能力建设,同

  5. Long-term patterns and short-term dynamics of stream solutes and suspended sediment in a rapidly weathering tropical watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanley, James B.; McDowell, William H.; Stallard, Robert F.

    2011-01-01

    The 326 ha Río Icacos watershed in the tropical wet forest of the Luquillo Mountains, northeastern Puerto Rico, is underlain by granodiorite bedrock with weathering rates among the highest in the world. We pooled stream chemistry and total suspended sediment (TSS) data sets from three discrete periods: 1983-1987, 1991-1997, and 2000-2008. During this period three major hurricanes crossed the site: Hugo in 1989, Hortense in 1996, and Georges in 1998. Stream chemistry reflects sea salt inputs (Na, Cl, and SO4), and high weathering rates of the granodiorite (Ca, Mg, Si, and alkalinity). During rainfall, stream composition shifts toward that of precipitation, diluting 90% or more in the largest storms, but maintains a biogeochemical watershed signal marked by elevated K and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration. DOC exhibits an unusual "boomerang" pattern, initially increasing with flow but then decreasing at the highest flows as it becomes depleted and/or vigorous overland flow minimizes contact with watershed surfaces. TSS increased markedly with discharge (power function slope 1.54), reflecting the erosive power of large storms in a landslide-prone landscape. The relations of TSS and most solute concentrations with stream discharge were stable through time, suggesting minimal long-term effects from repeated hurricane disturbance. Nitrate concentration, however, increased about threefold in response to hurricanes then returned to baseline over several years following a pseudo first-order decay pattern. The combined data sets provide insight about important hydrologic pathways, a long-term perspective to assess response to hurricanes, and a framework to evaluate future climate change in tropical ecosystems.

  6. Effects of reproductive condition, roost microclimate, and weather patterns on summer torpor use by a vespertilionid bat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Joseph S; Lacki, Michael J

    2014-01-01

    A growing number of mammal species are recognized as heterothermic, capable of maintaining a high-core body temperature or entering a state of metabolic suppression known as torpor. Small mammals can achieve large energetic savings when torpid, but they are also subject to ecological costs. Studying torpor use in an ecological and physiological context can help elucidate relative costs and benefits of torpor to different groups within a population. We measured skin temperatures of 46 adult Rafinesque's big-eared bats (Corynorhinus rafinesquii) to evaluate thermoregulatory strategies of a heterothermic small mammal during the reproductive season. We compared daily average and minimum skin temperatures as well as the frequency, duration, and depth of torpor bouts of sex and reproductive classes of bats inhabiting day-roosts with different thermal characteristics. We evaluated roosts with microclimates colder (caves) and warmer (buildings) than ambient air temperatures, as well as roosts with intermediate conditions (trees and rock crevices). Using Akaike's information criterion (AIC), we found that different statistical models best predicted various characteristics of torpor bouts. While the type of day-roost best predicted the average number of torpor bouts that bats used each day, current weather variables best predicted daily average and minimum skin temperatures of bats, and reproductive condition best predicted average torpor bout depth and the average amount of time spent torpid each day by bats. Finding that different models best explain varying aspects of heterothermy illustrates the importance of torpor to both reproductive and nonreproductive small mammals and emphasizes the multifaceted nature of heterothermy and the need to collect data on numerous heterothermic response variables within an ecophysiological context.

  7. Wacky Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabarre, Amy; Gulino, Jacqueline

    2013-01-01

    What do a leaf blower, water hose, fan, and ice cubes have in common? Ask the students who participated in an integrative science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (I-STEM) education unit, "Wacky Weather," and they will tell say "fun and severe weather"--words one might not have expected! The purpose of the unit…

  8. Wacky Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabarre, Amy; Gulino, Jacqueline

    2013-01-01

    What do a leaf blower, water hose, fan, and ice cubes have in common? Ask the students who participated in an integrative science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (I-STEM) education unit, "Wacky Weather," and they will tell say "fun and severe weather"--words one might not have expected! The purpose of the unit…

  9. 2011年极端天气和气候事件及其他相关事件的概要回顾%Some Extreme Events of Weather, Climate, and Related Phenomena in 2011

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈洪滨; 范学花

    2012-01-01

    2011年世界各地极端天气事件频发.1月,朝鲜半岛经历1945年来最长的寒潮天气;同期,强暴风雪袭击美国,1亿人受影响;4月8日,持续干旱大风导致德国北部小镇遭遇沙尘暴;7~10月的季风强降水致使泰国遭遇自1942年以来最严重的洪灾;高温少雨致使东非地区、南美洲地区的古巴经历严重干旱;9月北极海冰的体积达历史最小.5~9月,我国平均高温日数为1961年以来历史同期次多,多地刷新高温历史极值;2011年我国平均年降水量创60年来最低,多地遭遇严重干旱;而华西和黄淮经历异常严重秋汛.%Extreme events of weather and climate happened frequently over the world in 2011. The longest cold snap since 1945 impacted the Korean peninsula in January. At the same time, the strong winter storm with snowy weather impacted 100 million people across the United States. Storms and heavy monsoonal rains from July to October contributed to the worst flooding in Thailand since 1942. Crippling drought gripped East Africa and Cuba in South America. A freak sandstorm driven by extremely dry conditions and strong winds swept across the town of Rostock in the northern part of Germany on 8 ApriL Arctic sea-ice volume was estimated at a new lowest record in September. The number of high temperature days in China during the period of May to September in 2011 ranked the second since 1961 and the maximum temperature records were broken in many stations. The annual precipitation is the lowest in recent 60 years, which led to the extreme drought in many regions of China. Severe autumn flood happened in western China and Huanghe River - Huaihe River basins.

  10. Vegetation patterns and nature reserve construction in an extremely-arid desert in Anxi, NW China's Gansu Province.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Hong-Yan; Xu, Li-Hong; Chen, Chang-Du; Cui, Hai-Ting; Xu, Xing-Ying

    2002-07-01

    Anxi County is located in the northwestern part of the Hexi Corridor in Gansu Province and has the sole national level nature reserve of extremely-arid desert in China. Phytosociological methods (Braun-Blanquet, 1964) are used to classify plant community types in this area. Eleven are distinguished, including six of deserts, four of cases and one transitional type between deserts and cases. Direct gradient analysis (DCA) is employed to correlate the distribution of plant communities to physiogeographic conditions. This study makes clear that water is the most important ecological factor for the distribution of plant species and communities in this area. The effects of water have been demonstrated in different ways. A vegetation gradient from lower altitude to higher altitude in the southern part of the reserve is driven by a precipitation gradient. The effects of the depth of ground water table contribute to the differentiation of vegetation from desert to oasis in the flat area. In a finer scale, the washed gullies have obviously higher species richness and also higher vegetation cover than the surround gobi surfaces, possibly caused by the effects of floods. The vegetation patterns demonstrate that the area of Anxi County is a complete landscape unit. The range of the current nature reserve is not large enough for the purpose of conserving the unique biodiversity in this area.

  11. Spatio-Temporal Patterns of the 2010–2015 Extreme Hydrological Drought across the Central Andes, Argentina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Antonio Rivera

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available During the period 2010–2015, the semi-arid Central Andes in Argentina (CAA experienced one of the most severe and long-lasting hydrological droughts on record. Since the snowmelt is the most important source of water, the reduced snowfall over the mountains propagated the drought signal through the streamflows in the adjacent foothills east of the Andes ranges. Motivated by the widespread impacts on the socio-economic activities in the region, this study aims to characterize the recent hydrological drought in terms of streamflow deficits. Based on streamflow data from 20 basins, we used the standardized streamflow index (SSI to characterize hydrological droughts during the period 1971–2016. We found that the regional extent of the 2010–2015 hydrological drought was limited to the basins located north of 38° S, with mean duration of 67 months and maximum drought severity exhibiting a heterogeneous pattern in terms of spatial distribution and time of occurrence. The drought event reached extreme conditions in 14 of the 15 basins in the CAA, being record-breaking drought in six of the basins. This condition was likely driven by a cooling in the tropical Pacific Ocean resembling La Niña conditions, which generated a decrease in snowfall over the Andes due to suppressed frontal activity.

  12. Assessing spatial patterns of extreme droughts associated to return periods from observed dataset: Case study of Segura River Basin (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    García Galiano, Sandra G.; Diego Giraldo Osorio, Juan

    2013-04-01

    In basins of South-eastern Spain, such as the Segura River Basin (SRB), a strong decrease in runoff from the end of the 1970s has been observed. In the SRB, due to intensive reforestation aimed at halting desertification and erosion, added to climate variability and change, the default assumption of stationarity in water resources systems cannot be guaranteed. Therefore there is an important need for improvement in the ability of monitoring and predicting the impacts associated with the change of hydrologic regime. It is thus necessary to apply non-stationary probabilistic models, which are able to reproduce probability density functions whose parameters vary with time. From a high-resolution daily gridded rainfall dataset of more than 50 years (1950-2007 time period), the spatial distribution of lengths of maximum dry spells for several thresholds are assessed, applying GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Models for Location Scale and Shape) models at grid site. Results reveal an intensification of extreme drought events in some headbasins of the SRB important for water supply. The identification of spatial patterns of drought hazards at basin scale, associated to return periods, contribute to designing strategies of drought contingency preparedness and recovery operations, which are the leading edge of adaptation strategies.

  13. Vegetation patterns and nature reserve construction in an extremely-arid desert in Anxi,NW China's Gansu Province

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    Anxi County is located in the northwestern part of the Hexi Corridor in Gansu Province and has the sole national level nature reserve of extremely-arid desert in China.Phytosociological methods (Braun-Blanquet,1964) are used to classify plant community types in this area.Eleven are distinguished,including six of deserts,four of oases and one transitional type between deserts and oases.Direct gradient analysis ( DCA ) is employed to correlate the distribution of plant communities to physiogeographic conditions.This study makes clear that water is the most important ecological factor for the distribution of plant species and communities in this area.The effects of water have been demonstrated in different ways.A vegetation gradient from lower altitude to higher altitude in the southern part of the reserve is driven by a precipitation gradient.The effects of the depth of ground water table contribute to the differentiation of vegetation from desert to oasis in the flat area.In a finer scale,the washed gullies have obviously higher species richness and also higher vegetation cover than the surround gobi surfaces,possibly caused by the effects of floods.The vegetation patterns demonstrate that the area of Anxi County is a complete landscape unit.The range of the current nature reserve is not large enough for the purpose of conserving the unique biodiversity in this area.

  14. Global weather and local butterflies: variable responses to a large-scale climate pattern along an elevational gradient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pardikes, Nicholas A; Shapiro, Arthur M; Dyer, Lee A; Forister, Matthew L

    2015-11-01

    Understanding the spatial and temporal scales at which environmental variation affects populations of plants and animals is an important goal for modern population biology, especially in the context of shifting climatic conditions. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) generates climatic extremes of interannual variation, and has been shown to have significant effects on the diversity and abundance of a variety of terrestrial taxa. However, studies that have investigated the influence of such large-scale climate phenomena have often been limited in spatial and taxonomic scope. We used 23 years (1988-2010) of a long-term butterfly monitoring data set to explore associations between variation in population abundance of 28 butterfly species and variation in ENSO-derived sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) across 10 sites that encompass an elevational range of 2750 m in the Sierra Nevada mountain range of California. Our analysis detected a positive, regional effect of increased SSTA on butterfly abundance (wetter and warmer years predict more butterfly observations), yet the influence of SSTA on butterfly abundances varied along the elevational gradient, and also differed greatly among the 28 species. Migratory species had the strongest relationships with ENSO-derived SSTA, suggesting that large-scale climate indices are particularly valuable for understanding biotic-abiotic relationships of the most mobile species. In general, however, the ecological effects of large-scale climatic factors are context dependent between sites and species. Our results illustrate the power of long-term data sets for revealing pervasive yet subtle climatic effects, but also caution against expectations derived from exemplar species or single locations in the study of biotic-abiotic interactions.

  15. Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauman, William H., III; Wheeler, Mark M.; Short, David A.

    2005-01-01

    This report presents a 15-year climatological study of severe weather events and related severe weather atmospheric parameters. Data sources included local forecast rules, archived sounding data, Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS) data, surface and upper air maps, and two severe weather event databases covering east-central Florida. The local forecast rules were used to set threat assessment thresholds for stability parameters that were derived from the sounding data. The severe weather events databases were used to identify days with reported severe weather and the CGLSS data was used to differentiate between lightning and non-lightning days. These data sets provided the foundation for analyzing the stability parameters and synoptic patterns that were used to develop an objective tool to aid in forecasting severe weather events. The period of record for the analysis was May - September, 1989 - 2003. The results indicate that there are certain synoptic patterns more prevalent on days with severe weather and some of the stability parameters are better predictors of severe weather days based on locally tuned threat values. The results also revealed the stability parameters that did not display any skill related to severe weather days. An interactive web-based Severe Weather Decision Aid was developed to assist the duty forecaster by providing a level of objective guidance based on the analysis of the stability parameters, CGLSS data, and synoptic-scale dynamics. The tool will be tested and evaluated during the 2005 warm season.

  16. Spatial and temporal change characteristics of extremely cold weather in Hulun Buir%呼伦贝尔市极寒天气时空分布特征

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    阴秀霞

    2016-01-01

    With extremely cold days data from 16 stations in Hulun Buir during 1960—2014,the results showed that the geographical distribution of arctic days were unevenness and decreased from north to south;the forest area was more than pastoral area and rural area was the least. Interdecadal characteristics showed that arctic days in the 1960 s and 1970 s were the most,up to the 1960 s and the number of days significantly reduced in the 1980 s,at least in the 1990 s. At the beginning of 21 century,another arctic day slightly increased.The arctic days more appered in late December to late January, up to mid-January,followed by late January and gradual decreased after the beginning of spring in February.%文章对呼伦贝尔市16个台站1960—2014年极寒日进行了统计分析,结果表明:极寒日的地域分布不均匀,由北向南逐渐减少,林区多于牧区,牧区又多于农区;年代际特征是20世纪60年代与70年代日数较多,60年代最多;到了80年代日数大幅减少,90年代最少。进入21世纪初,极寒日又有小幅增多。隆冬12月下旬至1月下旬是极寒日数多的月份,其中1月中旬最多,1月下旬次之,立春后2月份逐渐减少。

  17. Mirador - Weather

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Earth Science data access made simple. Our weather system includes the dynamics of the atmosphere and its interaction with the oceans and land. The improvement of...

  18. Anomalous Circulation Patterns in Association with Two Types of Daily Precipitation Extremes over Southeastern China during Boreal Summer

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李明刚; 管亮勇; 金大超; 韩洁; 张茜

    2016-01-01

    Based on the daily rainfall data from China Meteorological Administration, the tropical cyclone (TC) best track data from Japan Meteorological Agency, and the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data from NOAA, regional mean daily precipitation extreme (RDPE) events over southeastern China (specifically, the Fujian–Jiangxi region (FJR)) and the associated circulation anomalies are investigated. For the summers of 1979–2011, a total of 105 RDPE events are identified, among which 35 are TC-influenced (TCIn-RDPE) and 70 are TC-free events (TCFr-RDPE). Distinct differences between these two types of RDPEs are found in both their statistical features and the related circulation patterns. TCFr-RDPEs usually occur in June, while TCIn-RDPEs mainly take place during July–August. When TCFr-RDPEs happen, a center of the anomalous cyclonic circulation is observed over the FJR, with an anomalous anticyclonic circulation to the south of this region. The warm/moist air flows from the South China Sea (SCS) and western Pacific meet with colder air from the north, forming a narrow convergent belt of water vapor over the FJR. Simultaneously, positive diabatic forcing anomalies are observed over the FJR, whereas negative anomalies appear over both its south and north sides, facilitating the formation and maintenance of the cyclonic circulation anomaly, as well as the upward motion of the atmosphere, over the FJR. When TCIn-RDPEs occur, southeastern China is dominated by a TC-related stronger anomalous cyclonic circulation. An anomalous anticyclonic circulation in the mid and high latitudes north of the FJR exists in the mid and upper troposphere, opposite to the situation during TCFr-RDPE events. Abundant warm/wet air is carried into the FJR from both the Indian Ocean and the SCS, leading to a large amount of latent heat release over the FJR and inducing strong ascending motion there. Furthermore, large differences are also found in the manifestation of Rossby wave energy propagation between

  19. Patterns of megaclasts along the coast of Eastern Samar (Philippines) - Implications for Holocene extreme-wave events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, Max; Boesl, Fabian; Narod Eco, Rodrigo; Galang, Jam Albert; Gonzalo, Lia Anne; Llanes, Francesca; Quix, Eva; Schroeder-Ritzrau, Andrea; Frank, Norbert; Mahar Lagmay, Alfredo; Brückner, Helmut

    2017-04-01

    The Eastern Visayas region in the Philippines is hit by some of the most violent tropical cyclones on Earth on a regular basis, exemplified by Typhoon Haiyan, 7-9 November 2013, and a number of other category 4 and 5 events during the last decades. Moreover, strong earthquakes along the Philippine Trench have triggered several tsunamis in the historical past. Coastal flooding through extreme waves associated with these events represents a significant hazard for communities along the eastern coasts of Samar. However, not much is known about frequency-magnitude relationships of coastal flooding events and the maximum magnitude on centennial and millennial scales, which can be derived from geological traces and which have to be considered in a coastal hazard management process. We investigated a large boulder field in Eastern Samar distributed over an elevated, intertidal palaeo-reef platform in order to understand mechanisms of boulder transport and to derive implications for the maximum spatial extent, height, and velocity of coastal flooding. In the field, we recorded location, shape, morphological features as well as length and orientation of the main axes of more than 250 boulders, the a-axes of which were between 1.5 and 10.7 m. Eight samples were taken for Th/U dating of post-depositional, secondary calcite flowstones and pre-depostional coral, and four samples were taken for radiocarbon dating of pre-depositional, sessil organisms attached to the boulders. We 3D-mapped the most important parts of the boulder field using an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and created structure-from-motion (SfM) models of the most prominent boulders, which will be used for inverse modelling of transport flows. Samples of the most common coralline lithofacies were taken for density estimations. We used interviews with elders of the local community as well as multi-temporal analysis of satellite images to reconstruct recent flooding patterns and boulder movement during recent events

  20. Anomalous circulation patterns in association with two types of daily precipitation extremes over southeastern China during boreal summer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Minggang; Guan, Zhaoyong; Jin, Dachao; Han, Jie; Zhang, Qian

    2016-04-01

    Based on the daily rainfall data from China Meteorological Administration, the tropical cyclone (TC) best track data from Japan Meteorological Agency, and the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data from NOAA, regional mean daily precipitation extreme (RDPE) events over southeastern China (specifically, the Fujian-Jiangxi region (FJR)) and the associated circulation anomalies are investigated. For the summers of 1979-2011, a total of 105 RDPE events are identified, among which 35 are TC-influenced (TCIn-RDPE) and 70 are TC-free events (TCFr-RDPE). Distinct differences between these two types of RDPEs are found in both their statistical features and the related circulation patterns. TCFr-RDPEs usually occur in June, while TCIn-RDPEs mainly take place during July-August. When TCFr-RDPEs happen, a center of the anomalous cyclonic circulation is observed over the FJR, with an anomalous anticyclonic circulation to the south of this region. The warm/moist air flows from the South China Sea (SCS) and western Pacific meet with colder air from the north, forming a narrow convergent belt of water vapor over the FJR. Simultaneously, positive diabatic forcing anomalies are observed over the FJR, whereas negative anomalies appear over both its south and north sides, facilitating the formation and maintenance of the cyclonic circulation anomaly, as well as the upward motion of the atmosphere, over the FJR. When TCIn-RDPEs occur, southeastern China is dominated by a TC-related stronger anomalous cyclonic circulation. An anomalous anticyclonic circulation in the mid and high latitudes north of the FJR exists in the mid and upper troposphere, opposite to the situation during TCFr-RDPE events. Abundant warm/wet air is carried into the FJR from both the Indian Ocean and the SCS, leading to a large amount of latent heat release over the FJR and inducing strong ascending motion there. Furthermore, large differences are also found in the manifestation of Rossby wave energy propagation between these

  1. Weather conditions: a neglected factor in human salivary cortisol research?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milas, Goran; Šupe-Domić, Daniela; Drmić-Hofman, Irena; Rumora, Lada; Klarić, Irena Martinović

    2017-09-01

    There is ample evidence that environmental stressors such as extreme weather conditions affect animal behavior and that this process is in part mediated through the elevated activity of the hypothalamic pituitary adrenal axis which results in an increase in cortisol secretion. This relationship has not been extensively researched in humans, and weather conditions have not been analyzed as a potential confounder in human studies of stress. Consequently, the goal of this paper was to assess the relationship between salivary cortisol and weather conditions in the course of everyday life and to test a possible moderating effect of two weather-related variables, the climate region and timing of exposure to outdoors conditions. The sample consisted of 903 secondary school students aged 18 to 21 years from Mediterranean and Continental regions. Cortisol from saliva was sampled in naturalistic settings at three time points over the course of a single day. We found that weather conditions are related to salivary cortisol concentration and that this relationship may be moderated by both the specific climate and the anticipation of immediate exposure to outdoors conditions. Unpleasant weather conditions are predictive for the level of salivary cortisol, but only among individuals who anticipate being exposed to it in the immediate future (e.g., in students attending school in the morning shift). We also demonstrated that isolated weather conditions or their patterns may be relevant in one climate area (e.g., Continental) while less relevant in the other (e.g., Mediterranean). Results of this study draw attention to the importance of controlling weather conditions in human salivary cortisol research.

  2. Dynamical proxies of North Atlantic predictability and extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faranda, Davide; Messori, Gabriele; Yiou, Pascal

    2017-01-01

    Atmospheric flows are characterized by chaotic dynamics and recurring large-scale patterns. These two characteristics point to the existence of an atmospheric attractor defined by Lorenz as: “the collection of all states that the system can assume or approach again and again, as opposed to those that it will ultimately avoid”. The average dimension D of the attractor corresponds to the number of degrees of freedom sufficient to describe the atmospheric circulation. However, obtaining reliable estimates of D has proved challenging. Moreover, D does not provide information on transient atmospheric motions, such as those leading to weather extremes. Using recent developments in dynamical systems theory, we show that such motions can be classified through instantaneous rather than average properties of the attractor. The instantaneous properties are uniquely determined by instantaneous dimension and stability. Their extreme values correspond to specific atmospheric patterns, and match extreme weather occurrences. We further show the existence of a significant correlation between the time series of instantaneous stability and dimension and the mean spread of sea-level pressure fields in an operational ensemble weather forecast at lead times of over two weeks. Instantaneous properties of the attractor therefore provide an efficient way of evaluating and informing operational weather forecasts.

  3. The influence of weather on health-related help-seeking behavior of senior citizens in Hong Kong

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Ho Ting; Chiu, Marcus Yu Lung; Wu, Cynthia Sau Ting; Lee, Tsz Cheung

    2015-03-01

    It is believed that extreme hot and cold weather has a negative impact on general health conditions. Much research focuses on mortality, but there is relatively little community health research. This study is aimed at identifying high-risk groups who are sensitive to extreme weather conditions, in particular, very hot and cold days, through an analysis of the health-related help-seeking patterns of over 60,000 Personal Emergency Link (PE-link) users in Hong Kong relative to weather conditions. In the study, 1,659,716 PE-link calls to the help center were analyzed. Results showed that females, older elderly, people who did not live alone, non-subsidized (relatively high-income) users, and those without medical histories of heart disease, hypertension, stroke, and diabetes were more sensitive to extreme weather condition. The results suggest that using official government weather forecast reports to predict health-related help-seeking behavior is feasible. An evidence-based strategic plan could be formulated by using a method similar to that used in this study to identify high-risk groups. Preventive measures could be established for protecting the target groups when extreme weather conditions are forecasted.

  4. 2010年极端天气和气候事件及其他相关事件的概要回顾%Some Extreme Events of Weather, Climate and Related Phenomena in 2010

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈洪滨; 范学花

    2011-01-01

    2009/2010年冬季,英国等欧洲国家经历自1981年来持续时间最长的寒流;2010年2月27日,罕见强风暴“辛加(Xynthia)”袭击欧洲多国;季风季节,巴基斯坦遭遇80年来最严重的暴雨洪涝;7~8月中旬,俄罗斯的极端高温干旱引发多起森林火灾;7~9月,亚马逊部分地区经历40年来最严重的干旱;10月中旬,超强台风“鲇鱼(Megi)”给菲律宾北部及我国台湾和福建等地造成严重损失.2010年1月上中旬,我国新疆出现近60年来最严重雪灾;西南地区经历长达半年的特大干旱;6月,东北地区经历40℃极端高温天气;8月,甘肃舟曲发生特大山洪泥石流;10月,海南出现近50年同期罕见强降雨.2010年全球又经历一个极端天气和气候事件频发的年份.%The longest cold snap since 1981, as well as snowy weather, which began in December 2009 across Europe like Britain, continued into January 2010. On 27 February 2010, a strong Atlantic cyclonic depression named Xynthia tore northeastward across coastal western Europe with hurricane force winds and heavy rains. Pakistan suffered the worst flood for 80 years during the monsoon season. The extreme heat wave accompanied by severe drought led to destructive forest fires in Russia during July and August. Parts of the Amazon basin were badly affected by drought during the later part of 2010. Super typhoon Megi struck the northern Philippines, southern part of China. Xinjiang experienced the most severe snow disaster for 60 years in January 2010. Parts of southwestern China experienced severe drought through late 2009 and early 2010. The extreme high temperature hit the north-eastern part of China in June. In Zhouqu County of Gansu Province, China, several villages were leveled by landslides triggered by the heavy rainfall on 8 August. Heavy rains over Hainan Province, China led to the worst flooding in that region in nearly half a century. Extreme events of weather and climate

  5. Analysis of line-and-space resist patterns with sub-20 nm half-pitch fabricated using high-numerical-aperture exposure tool of extreme ultraviolet lithography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozawa, Takahiro; Santillan, Julius Joseph; Itani, Toshiro

    2016-09-01

    The resolution of resist processes for extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography has been steadily improved and has reached the sub-20 nm half-pitch region. Currently, the resist materials capable of resolving 11 nm half-pitch line-and-space patterns are being developed in industrial fields. In this study, the line-and-space resist patterns with sub-20 nm half-pitches were fabricated using a high-numerical-aperture (NA) EUV exposure tool and analyzed by the Monte Carlo simulation. The scanning electron microscopy (SEM) images of resist patterns after their development were compared with the latent images calculated on the basis of the sensitization and reaction mechanisms of chemically amplified EUV resists. The approximate relationship between resist patterns and latent images was clarified for the sub-20 nm half-pitch region. For the realization of 11 nm half-pitch fabrication, the suppression of the stochastic effects in the development process is an important consideration.

  6. Extreme weather: does nature keep up?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leemans, R.; Vliet, van A.J.H.

    2004-01-01

    The IPCC indicated that above a 2°C increase in global mean surface temperature the risk of adverse impacts will rapidly increase. This study suggests this level is too high. Even with small global temperature changes, there will be disproportionately large changes in the frequency and magnitude of

  7. A szélsőséges időjárási jelenségek hatásai (Effects of the Extreme Weather Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tamás Molnár

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Economist Sir Nicholas Stern warned that the global warming could cause major blow to the world economy than the two world wars and the crisis in the 1930s. But where are we in this process now and what can be expected in the near future and what opportunities we are to curb the negative effects and to slow down the global warming. The world’s population is more than 7 billion people now and we will live more than 9 billion on the planet in 2050 according to the conservative estimation because daily the number of inhabitants increases by approximitaly a quarter of a million people (National Rural Strategy, 2020. The water and ecosystem resources are diminishing due to overuse and the values of ecological footprint are very high especially in the developed countries. The increase of extreme weather events and its effects associated with the global warming have also growing impact on agricultural production. This phenomenon is important because to solve the famine and the water shortage will be much bigger problem due to climate change than today. The VAHAVA reports (change-impact-response draw also attention to the issue which is also important for experts of climate change: Is it clearly climate change and if so than what the role of the human activity in it is? It seems clear that the assumption is almost poetic as the earth sends clear messages: the concentration of greenhouse gases increased suddenly in the atmosphere (carbon-dioxide, methan, nitrous oxide, etc, the average temperature continues to rise (increasing number of hot records, the sea temperature is also rising, the area of glaciers is shrinking dramatically and prolonged drought and flood waters in some places appear. The habitats of plans and animals, routes of bird migration change. The negative effects of extreme weather events thus represent a broad problem area. The effects can be devide into several groups. Some of them have impact already relatively short-term (for

  8. Winter Weather Frequently Asked Questions

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Part 3 of 3) Hot Weather Tips Heat Stress in Older Adults FAQs Extreme Heat PSAs Related Links MMWR Bibliography CDC's Program Floods Flood Readiness Personal Hygiene After a Disaster Cleanup of Flood Water After a Flood Worker Safety Educational Materials Floods ...

  9. Identification of Extreme Events Under Climate Change Conditions Over Europe and The Northwest-atlantic Region: Spatial Patterns and Time Series Characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leckebusch, G.; Ulbrich, U.; Speth, P.

    In the context of climate change and the resulting possible impacts on socio-economic conditions for human activities it seems that due to a changed occurrence of extreme events more severe consequences have to be expected than from changes in the mean climate. These extreme events like floods, excessive heats and droughts or windstorms possess impacts on human social and economic life in different categories such as forestry, agriculture, energy use, tourism and the reinsurance business. Reinsurances are affected by nearly 70% of all insured damages over Europe in the case of wind- storms. Especially the December 1999 French windstorms caused damages about 10 billion. A new EU-founded project (MICE = Modelling the Impact of Climate Ex- tremes) will focus on these impacts caused by changed occurrences of extreme events over Europe. Based upon the output of general circulation models as well as regional climate models, investigations are carried out with regard to time series characteristics as well as the spatial patterns of extremes under climate changed conditions. After the definition of specific thresholds for climate extremes, in this talk we will focus on the results of the analysis for the different data sets (HadCM3 and CGCMII GCM's and RCM's, re-analyses, observations) with regard to windstorm events. At first the results of model outputs are validated against re-analyses and observations. Especially a comparison of the stormtrack (2.5 to 8 day bandpass filtered 500 hPa geopotential height), cyclone track, cyclone frequency and intensity is presented. Highly relevant to damages is the extreme wind near the ground level, so the 10 m wind speed will be investigated additionally. of special interest to possible impacts is the changed spatial occurrence of windspeed maxima under 2xCO2-induced climate change.

  10. Analysis of WRF extreme daily precipitation over Alaska using self-organizing maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glisan, Justin M.; Gutowski, William J.; Cassano, John J.; Cassano, Elizabeth N.; Seefeldt, Mark W.

    2016-07-01

    We analyze daily precipitation extremes from simulations of a polar-optimized version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Simulations cover 19 years and use the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) domain. We focus on Alaska because of its proximity to the Pacific and Arctic oceans; both provide large moisture fetch inland. Alaska's topography also has important impacts on orographically forced precipitation. We use self-organizing maps (SOMs) to understand circulation characteristics conducive for extreme precipitation events. The SOM algorithm employs an artificial neural network that uses an unsupervised training process, which results in finding general patterns of circulation behavior. The SOM is trained with mean sea level pressure (MSLP) anomalies. Widespread extreme events, defined as at least 25 grid points experiencing 99th percentile precipitation, are examined using SOMs. Widespread extreme days are mapped onto the SOM of MSLP anomalies, indicating circulation patterns. SOMs aid in determining high-frequency nodes, and hence, circulations are conducive to extremes. Multiple circulation patterns are responsible for extreme days, which are differentiated by where extreme events occur in Alaska. Additionally, several meteorological fields are composited for nodes accessed by extreme and nonextreme events to determine specific conditions necessary for a widespread extreme event. Individual and adjacent node composites produce more physically reasonable circulations as opposed to composites of all extremes, which include multiple synoptic regimes. Temporal evolution of extreme events is also traced through SOM space. Thus, this analysis lays the groundwork for diagnosing differences in atmospheric circulations and their associated widespread, extreme precipitation events.

  11. Stormy Weather

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2012-01-01

    Inspired by the deep abyss of the unknown; a constant source for investigation and discovery, heating and destruction, all simultaneously. Beneath the deep darkness, millions of species vibrantly thrive in another universe wholly untouched by human hands, though affected by their choices. The weathered pieces and people associated with seaside villages, the deep wrinkles that tell a story of one's life and experiences like

  12. Climate change concerns, weather expectations, and willingness to adapt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klima, K.; Bruine de Bruin, W.; Dessai, S.; Lefevre, C.; Taylor, A.

    2016-12-01

    Adaptation will become necessary as climate change causes more extreme weather worldwide. People with lower climate change concerns may be less willing to act. Yet, people who dismiss climate change may still perceive that extreme weather events are becoming more frequent or more intense. It is possible that weather perceptions and change concerns are partially independent constructs, even if they do inform each other. In this research, we ask: 1) How likely do people think that wet, windy, and hot weather events will become worse by 2050? 2) How willing are people to implement climate change adaptation? and 3) Is willingness to adapt to climate change motivated by perceptions of extreme weather, independent of concerns about climate change? To answer these questions, we surveyed two areas with different political views on climate change and extreme weather events, the United States (474 participants) and the United Kingdom (607 participants). We find expectations for extreme weather and willingness to adapt vary between countries; US residents expect hot weather to worsen the most, and for UK residents the least. Willingness to adapt varies as well. Yet, for each type of weather, weather expectations and climate change concerns independently predict willingness to adapt, in the US and the UK. Our findings have implications for communications about climate change adaptation. Willingness to prepare for extreme weather may be higher among individuals with low climate change concerns if the term `climate change' is omitted from communications.

  13. Investigating skin-to-skin care patterns with extremely preterm infants in the NICU and their effect on early cognitive and communication performance: a retrospective cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonya, Jenn; Ray, William C; Rumpf, R Wolfgang; Brock, Guy

    2017-01-01

    Objectives The primary objective of the study was to investigate how patterns of skin-to-skin care might impact infant early cognitive and communication performance. Design This was a retrospective cohort study. Setting This study took place in a level-IV all-referral neonatal intensive care unit in the Midwest USA specialising in the care of extremely preterm infants. Participants Data were collected from the electronic medical records of all extremely preterm infants (gestational age 0.05). Mothers provided the majority of skin-to-skin care with a sharp decline at 30 weeks corrected age, regardless of when extremely preterm infants were admitted. Additional exploratory network analysis suggests that medical and skin-to-skin factors play a parallel, non-synergistic role in contributing to early cognitive and communication performance as assessed through the Bayley-III. Conclusions This study suggests an association between early and frequent skin-to-skin care with extremely preterm infants and early cognitive and communication performance. PMID:28320787

  14. The New York City Operations Support Tool: Supporting Water Supply Operations for Millions in an Era of Changing Patterns in Hydrological Extreme Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matonse, A. H.; Porter, J. H.; Frei, A.

    2015-12-01

    Providing an average 1.1 billion gallons (~ 4.2 x 106 cubic meters) of drinking water per day to approximately nine million people in New York City (NYC) and four upstate counties, the NYC water supply is among the world's largest unfiltered systems. In addition to providing a reliable water supply in terms of water quantity and quality, the city has to fulfill other flow objectives to serve downstream communities. At times, such as during extreme hydrological events, water quality issues may restrict water usage for parts of the system. To support a risk-based water supply decision making process NYC has developed the Operations Support Tool (OST). OST combines a water supply systems model with reservoir water quality models, near real time data ingestion, data base management and an ensemble hydrological forecast. A number of reports have addressed the frequency and intensities of extreme hydrological events across the continental US. In the northeastern US studies have indicated an increase in the frequency of extremely large precipitation and streamflow events during the most recent decades. During this presentation we describe OST and, using case studies we demonstrate how this tool has been useful to support operational decisions. We also want to motivate a discussion about how undergoing changes in patterns of hydrological extreme events elevate the challenge faced by water supply managers and the role of the scientific community to integrate nonstationarity approaches in hydrologic forecast and modeling.

  15. Seeing is Believing? An Examination of Perceptions of Local Weather Conditions and Climate Change Among Residents in the U.S. Gulf Coast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shao, Wanyun; Goidel, Kirby

    2016-11-01

    What role do objective weather conditions play in coastal residents' perceptions of local climate shifts and how do these perceptions affect attitudes toward climate change? While scholars have increasingly investigated the role of weather and climate conditions on climate-related attitudes and behaviors, they typically assume that residents accurately perceive shifts in local climate patterns. We directly test this assumption using the largest and most comprehensive survey of Gulf Coast residents conducted to date supplemented with monthly temperature data from the U.S. Historical Climatology Network and extreme weather events data from National Climatic Data Center. We find objective conditions have limited explanatory power in determining perceptions of local climate patterns. Only the 15- and 19-year hurricane trends and decadal summer temperature trend have some effects on perceptions of these weather conditions, while the decadal trend of total number of extreme weather events and 15- and 19-year winter temperature trends are correlated with belief in climate change. Partisan affiliation, in contrast, plays a powerful role affecting individual perceptions of changing patterns of air temperatures, flooding, droughts, and hurricanes, as well as belief in the existence of climate change and concern for future consequences. At least when it comes to changing local conditions, "seeing is not believing." Political orientations rather than local conditions drive perceptions of local weather conditions and these perceptions-rather than objectively measured weather conditions-influence climate-related attitudes.

  16. Nonlinear response of mid-latitude weather to the changing Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overland, James E.; Dethloff, Klaus; Francis, Jennifer A.; Hall, Richard J.; Hanna, Edward; Kim, Seong-Joong; Screen, James A.; Shepherd, Theodore G.; Vihma, Timo

    2016-11-01

    Are continuing changes in the Arctic influencing wind patterns and the occurrence of extreme weather events in northern mid-latitudes? The chaotic nature of atmospheric circulation precludes easy answers. The topic is a major science challenge, as continued Arctic temperature increases are an inevitable aspect of anthropogenic climate change. We propose a perspective that rejects simple cause-and-effect pathways and notes diagnostic challenges in interpreting atmospheric dynamics. We present a way forward based on understanding multiple processes that lead to uncertainties in Arctic and mid-latitude weather and climate linkages. We emphasize community coordination for both scientific progress and communication to a broader public.

  17. Water-borne Infections, Weather Variability and Climate Change in Eastern Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tirrell, A.; Naumova, E. N.; Liss, A.

    2012-12-01

    For this project, a time-series analysis of existing data will be used to assess temporal and spatial associations between long-term, seasonal and short-term weather variability and water-borne infectious diseases in several Siberian municipalities. Building on these associations, we will generate estimates of future changes in infectious disease patterns based upon existing forecasts of climate change and likely increases in extreme weather events in Eastern Russia. Finally, we will contemplate the public health implications of these findings, and offer appropriate policy recommendations.

  18. Repeatability of gait pattern variables measured by use of extremity-mounted inertial measurement units in nonlame horses during trotting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz, Antonio M; Maninchedda, Ugo E; Burger, Dominik; Wanda, Sabine; Vidondo, Beatriz

    2017-09-01

    OBJECTIVE To determine repeatability of gait variables measured by use of extremity-mounted inertial measurement units (IMUs) in nonlame horses during trotting under controlled conditions of treadmill exercise. ANIMALS 10 horses. PROCEDURES Six IMUs were strapped to the metacarpal, metatarsal, and distal tibial regions of each horse. Data were collected in a standardized manner (3 measurements/d on 3 d/wk over a 3-week period) while each horse was trotted on a treadmill. Every measurement consisted of a minimum of 20 strides from which a minimum of 10 strides was selected for analysis. Spatial and temporal variables were derived from the IMUs. Repeatability coefficients based on the within-subject SD were computed for each gait analysis variable at each week. RESULTS Most of the temporal and spatial variables had high repeatability (repeatability coefficients variables, specifically the symmetry variables (which were calculated from other variables), had somewhat higher repeatability coefficients (ie, lower repeatability) only in the last week. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE With the exceptions of some symmetry variables, which may reflect individual variations during movement, the extremity-mounted IMUs provided data with high repeatability for nonlame horses trotting under controlled conditions of treadmill exercise. Repeatability was achieved for each instrumented limb segment with regard to the spatial relationship between 2 adjacent segments (joint angles) and the temporal relationship among all segments (limb phasing). Extremity-mounted IMUs could have the potential to become a method for gait analysis in horses.

  19. 极端气象条件诱发的静电火灾事故分析与防范建议%Analysis and Preventive Countermeasures for Electrostatic Fire Accidents Caused by Extreme Weather Condition

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李家启; 李黎; 黄亚敏; 秦健; 曾理

    2012-01-01

    Taking a fire accident in at a pharmacy company in Chongqing on the September 2006 as an example, the causes of the electrostatic fire accident are analyzed by using the meteorological ground observation data and water vapor content inferred from GPS/MAT data, in combination with the production processes of the company. The results show that the extreme weather condition of high temperature and low moisture (air vapour content being 0.5 g/cm3, and surface temperature above.40℃) is the precondition for the electrostatic fire; another important cause is the incorrect measures for electrostatic prevention, which made a great deal of static electricity accumulated, produced spark discharge, and then led to the burning of a large amount of volatile petroleurn aether vapour. In order to decrease the occurrences of the like electrostatic fire accidents, some precaution suggestions are given.%针对重庆一家制药厂2006年9月3日22:00发生的一起火灾,利用GPS/MAT资料反演空气水汽含量产品和气象地面观测资料,并结合制药厂生产工艺,重点分析静电火灾事故原因.结果表明:高温低湿极端气象条件(空气中水汽含量达到0.5 g/cm3、地表温度在40℃以上)是静电火灾发生的先决条件;生产工艺中防静电措施不合理,使静电产生和大量积聚,并产生火花放电,致使大量挥发的石油醚蒸汽燃烧而引发火灾,为减少类似静电火灾事故的发生,提出了相应防范建议以供参考.

  20. Operational Space Weather Activities in the US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berger, Thomas; Singer, Howard; Onsager, Terrance; Viereck, Rodney; Murtagh, William; Rutledge, Robert

    2016-07-01

    We review the current activities in the civil operational space weather forecasting enterprise of the United States. The NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center is the nation's official source of space weather watches, warnings, and alerts, working with partners in the Air Force as well as international operational forecast services to provide predictions, data, and products on a large variety of space weather phenomena and impacts. In October 2015, the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy released the National Space Weather Strategy (NSWS) and associated Space Weather Action Plan (SWAP) that define how the nation will better forecast, mitigate, and respond to an extreme space weather event. The SWAP defines actions involving multiple federal agencies and mandates coordination and collaboration with academia, the private sector, and international bodies to, among other things, develop and sustain an operational space weather observing system; develop and deploy new models of space weather impacts to critical infrastructure systems; define new mechanisms for the transition of research models to operations and to ensure that the research community is supported for, and has access to, operational model upgrade paths; and to enhance fundamental understanding of space weather through support of research models and observations. The SWAP will guide significant aspects of space weather operational and research activities for the next decade, with opportunities to revisit the strategy in the coming years through the auspices of the National Science and Technology Council.

  1. Using pattern recognition as a method for predicting extreme events in natural and socio-economic systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Intriligator, M.

    2011-12-01

    Vladimir (Volodya) Keilis-Borok has pioneered the use of pattern recognition as a technique for analyzing and forecasting developments in natural as well as socio-economic systems. Keilis-Borok's work on predicting earthquakes and landslides using this technique as a leading geophysicist has been recognized around the world. Keilis-Borok has also been a world leader in the application of pattern recognition techniques to the analysis and prediction of socio-economic systems. He worked with Allan Lichtman of American University in using such techniques to predict presidential elections in the U.S. Keilis-Borok and I have worked together with others on the use of pattern recognition techniques to analyze and to predict socio-economic systems. We have used this technique to study the pattern of macroeconomic indicators that would predict the end of an economic recession in the U.S. We have also worked with officers in the Los Angeles Police Department to use this technique to predict surges of homicides in Los Angeles.

  2. Insurance against weather risk : use of heating degree-days from non-local stations for weather derivatives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.

    2003-01-01

    Weather derivatives enable policy-holders to safeguard themselves against extreme weather conditions. The effectiveness and the efficiency of the risk transfer is determined by the spatial risk basis, which is the stochastic dependency of the local weather outcome being insured and the outcome of

  3. Are extreme rainfall intensities more frequent? Analysis of trends in rainfall patterns relevant to urban drainage systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Toffol, S; Laghari, A N; Rauch, W

    2009-01-01

    The fact that climate change is affecting the intensity and frequency of rainfall is well accepted in the scientific community. This is backed by a multitude of reports on the basis of daily rainfall series analysis; however, little research is available for short duration intensities. Due to its significant influence on the behaviour of urban drainage, it is critical to investigate the changes in short duration rainfall intensities. In this study different intensities relevant for the urban drainage and the total rainfall per rain event are analysed. The trend is investigated using the Mann-Kendall test. The rainfall series analysed are from the alpine region Tyrol. The results present differences depending on the duration of the intensity and the series considered, however an increase in the number of extreme events is detectable for short durations for the most series.

  4. Whole-genome sequencing of six Mauritian Cynomolgus macaques (Macaca fascicularis) reveals a genome-wide pattern of polymorphisms under extreme population bottleneck.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osada, Naoki; Hettiarachchi, Nilmini; Adeyemi Babarinde, Isaac; Saitou, Naruya; Blancher, Antoine

    2015-03-23

    Cynomolgus macaques (Macaca fascicularis) were introduced to the island of Mauritius by humans around the 16th century. The unique demographic history of the Mauritian cynomolgus macaques provides the opportunity to not only examine the genetic background of well-established nonhuman primates for biomedical research but also understand the effect of an extreme population bottleneck on the pattern of polymorphisms in genomes. We sequenced the whole genomes of six Mauritian cynomolgus macaques and obtained an average of 20-fold coverage of the genome sequences for each individual. The overall level of nucleotide diversity was 23% smaller than that of the Malaysian cynomolgus macaques, and a reduction of low-frequency polymorphisms was observed. In addition, we also confirmed that the Mauritian cynomolgus macaques were genetically closer to a representative of the Malaysian population than to a representative of the Indochinese population. Excess of nonsynonymous polymorphisms in low frequency, which has been observed in many other species, was not very strong in the Mauritian samples, and the proportion of heterozygous nonsynonymous polymorphisms relative to synonymous polymorphisms is higher within individuals in Mauritian than Malaysian cynomolgus macaques. Those patterns indicate that the extreme population bottleneck made purifying selection overwhelmed by the power of genetic drift in the population. Finally, we estimated the number of founding individuals by using the genome-wide site frequency spectrum of the six samples. Assuming a simple demographic scenario with a single bottleneck followed by exponential growth, the estimated number of founders (∼20 individuals) is largely consistent with previous estimates.

  5. How extreme are extremes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucchi, Marco; Petitta, Marcello; Calmanti, Sandro

    2016-04-01

    High temperatures have an impact on the energy balance of any living organism and on the operational capabilities of critical infrastructures. Heat-wave indicators have been mainly developed with the aim of capturing the potential impacts on specific sectors (agriculture, health, wildfires, transport, power generation and distribution). However, the ability to capture the occurrence of extreme temperature events is an essential property of a multi-hazard extreme climate indicator. Aim of this study is to develop a standardized heat-wave indicator, that can be combined with other indices in order to describe multiple hazards in a single indicator. The proposed approach can be used in order to have a quantified indicator of the strenght of a certain extreme. As a matter of fact, extremes are usually distributed in exponential or exponential-exponential functions and it is difficult to quickly asses how strong was an extreme events considering only its magnitude. The proposed approach simplify the quantitative and qualitative communication of extreme magnitude

  6. Weathering a Perfect Storm from Space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, Jeffrey J.

    2016-01-01

    Extreme space-weather events — intense solar and geomagnetic storms — have occurred in the past: most recently in 1859, 1921 and 1989. So scientists expect that, sooner or later, another extremely intense spaceweather event will strike Earth again. Such storms have the potential to cause widespread interference with and damage to technological systems. A National Academy of Sciences study projects that an extreme space-weather event could end up costing the American economy more than $1 trillion. The question now is whether or not we will take the actions needed to avoid such expensive consequences. Let’s assume that we do. Below is an imagined scenario of how, sometime in the future, an extreme space-weather event might play out.

  7. Evaluation of dynamically downscaled extreme temperature using a spatially-aggregated generalized extreme value (GEV) model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jiali; Han, Yuefeng; Stein, Michael L.; Kotamarthi, Veerabhadra R.; Huang, Whitney K.

    2016-11-01

    The weather research and forecast (WRF) model downscaling skill in extreme maximum daily temperature is evaluated by using the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. While the GEV distribution has been used extensively in climatology and meteorology for estimating probabilities of extreme events, accurately estimating GEV parameters based on data from a single pixel can be difficult, even with fairly long data records. This work proposes a simple method assuming that the shape parameter, the most difficult of the three parameters to estimate, does not vary over a relatively large region. This approach is applied to evaluate 31-year WRF-downscaled extreme maximum temperature through comparison with North American regional reanalysis (NARR) data. Uncertainty in GEV parameter estimates and the statistical significance in the differences of estimates between WRF and NARR are accounted for by conducting a novel bootstrap procedure that makes no assumption of temporal or spatial independence within a year, which is especially important for climate data. Despite certain biases over parts of the United States, overall, WRF shows good agreement with NARR in the spatial pattern and magnitudes of GEV parameter estimates. Both WRF and NARR show a significant increase in extreme maximum temperature over the southern Great Plains and southeastern United States in January and over the western United States in July. The GEV model shows clear benefits from the regionally constant shape parameter assumption, for example, leading to estimates of the location and scale parameters of the model that show coherent spatial patterns.

  8. Deep Learning for Climate Pattern Detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prabhat, M.; Liu, Y.; Correa, J.; Racah, E.; Oh, S. Y.; Khosrowshahi, A.; Lavers, D. A.; Wehner, M. F.; Collins, W.

    2015-12-01

    Science motivation In the era of 'Big Data', mining large observational products (satellite measurements, ground-based readings) and massive climate simulations output is key for gaining scientific insights. An important scientific goal is the characterization of extreme weather in current day, and future climate change scenarios. In this work, we consider the problem of finding extreme patterns (such as Tropical Cyclones, Extra-Tropical Cyclones, Atmospheric Rivers) in large climate archives. We present the successful application of Deep Learning, a state-of-the-art machine learning methodology, for finding spatio-temporal patterns. The results from the application of this method can be used for characterizing statistical changes in extreme weather events (both their intensity and frequency) under climate change scenarios. Methods We formulate the problem of finding patterns as a classic image classification task. We prepare labeled data (ground truth is obtained from the application of the TECA tool, a catalog of known events from the literature and hand-labeling). We utilize 8 input variables for Tropical Cyclones and 2 variables for Atmospheric Rivers. We construct a Deep Convolutional Neural Network based on the deep learning library-NEON-developed at Nervana System, in conjunction with the Spearmint package for hyperparameter optimization. Our optimal network consists of 4 layers (2 convolutional layer and 2 fully connected layers). Results We obtain good classification performance for extreme weather patterns: 99% accuracy for Tropical Cyclones, 90.5% (US Atmospheric Rivers) and 89.5% (European Atmospheric Rivers). The attached figure shows sample weather patterns correctly classified by the Deep Learning architecture.

  9. Recent results from extreme ultraviolet lithography patterned mask inspection for 11 nm half-pitch generation using projection electron microscope system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirano, Ryoichi; Iida, Susumu; Amano, Tsuyoshi; Watanabe, Hidehiro; Hatakeyama, Masahiro; Murakami, Takeshi; Suematsu, Kenichi; Terao, Kenji

    2016-05-01

    Extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUVL) is a promising technique for 1X nm half-pitch (hp) generation lithography. The inspection of patterned EUVL masks is one of the main issues that must be addressed during mask fabrication for manufacture of devices with 11 nm hp feature sizes. We have already designed projection electron microscope (PEM) optics that have been integrated into a new inspection system called Model EBEYE-V30 (where "Model EBEYE" is an EBARA's model code) and this system seems quite promising for 16 nm hp generation EUVL patterned mask inspection. The defect inspection sensitivity of this system was evaluated via capture of an electron image that was generated at the mask by focusing the image through the projection optics onto a time-delay integration (TDI) image sensor. For increased throughput and higher defect detection sensitivity, a new electron-sensitive area image sensor with a high-speed data processing unit, a bright and stable electron source, and a simultaneous deflector for the image capture area that follows the mask scanning motion have been developed. Using a combination of synchronous deflection and mask scanning, the image can be integrated into both the fixed area image sensor and the TDI image sensor. We describe our experimental results for EUV patterned mask inspection using the above system. Elements have been developed for inspection tool integration and the designed specification has been verified. The system performance demonstrates the defect detectability required for 11 nm hp generation EUVL masks.

  10. Monthly Weather Review

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Supplements to the Monthly Weather Review publication. The Weather Bureau published the Monthly weather review Supplement irregularly from 1914 to 1949. The...

  11. Weather Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacmeister, Julio T.

    Awareness of weather and concern about weather in the proximate future certainly must have accompanied the emergence of human self-consciousness. Although weather is a basic idea in human existence, it is difficult to define precisely.

  12. Identification of the non-stationarity of extreme precipitation events and correlations with large-scale ocean-atmospheric circulation patterns: A case study in the Wei River Basin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Saiyan; Huang, Shengzhi; Huang, Qiang; Xie, Yangyang; Leng, Guoyong; Luan, Jinkai; Song, Xiaoyu; Wei, Xiu; Li, Xiangyang

    2017-05-01

    The investigation of extreme precipitation events in terms of variation characteristics, stationarity, and their underlying causes is of great significance to better understand the regional response of the precipitation variability to global climate change. In this study, the Wei River Basin (WRB), a typical eco-environmentally vulnerable region of the Loess Plateau in China was selected as the study region. A set of precipitation indices was adopted to study the changing patterns of precipitation extremes and the stationarity of extreme precipitation events. Furthermore, the correlations between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)/El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and precipitation extremes were explored using the cross wavelet technique. The results indicate that: (1) extreme precipitation events in the WRB are characterized by a significant decrease of consecutive wet days (CWD) at the 95% confidence level; (2) compared with annual precipitation, daily precipitation extremes are much more sensitive to changing environments, and the assumption of stationarity of extreme precipitation in the WRB is invalid, especially in the upstream, thereby introducing large uncertainty to the design and management of water conservancy engineering; (3) both PDO and ENSO events have a strong influence on precipitation extremes in the WRB. These findings highlight the importance of examining the validity of the stationarity assumption in extreme hydrological frequency analysis, which has great implications for the prediction of extreme hydrological events.

  13. Rough weather rescue

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2002-07-01

    This report, which was commissioned by the Offshore Division of the Health and Safety Executive, reviews the type of equipment and techniques used to rescue people from the water around offshore platforms in rough weather. It also examines the limitations of the equipment in extreme conditions and reports the views of the various industry sectors (as determined by a questionnaire survey). The type of incidents covered by the report include: man overboard; helicopter ditching; and evacuation from totally enclosed motor propelled survival craft (TEMPSC) and life rafts. The report considers: the approach taken by other oil-producing countries; current escape, evacuation and rescue (EER) practices for the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS); environmental limits; methods for rescue and recovery from the water and TEMPSC; launch and recovery systems; fast rescue craft (FSC) and daughter craft; emergency response and rescue vessels; helicopters; casualty personal protection equipment; claimed versus actual equipment performance; training and practice procedures; attitudes to environmental limits; lessons learnt from incidents; mechanical recovery devices; equipment design and use in rough weather; and recommendations for improvements.

  14. Gabapentin Does Not Appear to Improve Postoperative Pain and Sleep Patterns in Patients Who Concomitantly Receive Regional Anesthesia for Lower Extremity Orthopedic Surgery: A Randomized Control Trial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amin, Shawn; Reilly, Mark C.; Shulman, Steven

    2017-01-01

    In recent years, gabapentin has gained popularity as an adjuvant therapy for the treatment of postoperative pain. Numerous studies have shown a decrease in pain score, even with immediate postoperative activity, which is significant for early post-op ambulation and regaining functionality sooner. However, studies have been in conclusive in patients undergoing lower extremity orthopedic surgery. For this reason, we hoped to study the effect of gabapentin on postoperative pain in patients undergoing total knee arthroplasty, total hip arthroplasty, or a hip fracture repair. This was done in the setting of ensuring adequate postoperative analgesia with regional blocks and opioid PCA, as is protocol at our institution. Given the sedative effects of gabapentin and the potential for improving postoperative sleep patterns, we also studied the drug's effect on this aspect of our patient's postoperative course. We utilized the Pittsburg Sleep Quality Index and Visual Analog Scale for pain to obtain a more objective standardized score amongst our study population. Our results indicate that gabapentin does not offer any additional relief in pain or improve sleep habits in patients who have received either a femoral or lumbar plexus block for lower extremity orthopedic surgery. This trial is registered with NCT01546857.

  15. Fleet size estimation for spreading operation considering road geometry, weather and traffic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven I-Jy Chien

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Extreme weather conditions(i.e. snow storm in winter time have caused significant travel disruptions and increased delay and traffic accidents. Snow plowing and salt spreading are the most common counter-measures for making our roads safer for motorists. To assist highway maintenance authorities with better planning and allocation of winter maintenance resources, this study introduces an analytical model to estimate the required number of trucks for spreading operation subjective to pre-specified service time constraints considering road geometry, weather and traffic. The complexity of the research problem lies in dealing with heterogeneous road geometry of road sections, truck capacities, spreading patterns, and traffic speeds under different weather conditions and time periods of an event. The proposed model is applied to two maintenance yards with seven road sections in New Jersey (USA, which demonstrates itself fairly practical to be implemented, considering diverse operational conditions.

  16. Extreme variation in patterns of tandem repeats in mitochondrial control region of yellow-browed tits (Sylviparus modestus, Paridae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiaoyang; Liu, Nian; Zhang, Hongli; Yang, Xiao-Jun; Huang, Yuan; Lei, Fumin

    2015-08-19

    To investigate the evolutionary pattern and origins of tandem repeats in the mitochondrial control region of the yellow-browed tit (Sylviparus modestus), the control region and another four mitochondrial loci from fifteen individuals were analyzed. A 117-bp tandem repeat unit that repeated once, twice or three times in different individuals was found, and a rarely reported arrangement for this tandem repeats region that a 5' imperfect copy at its downstream and a 3' imperfect copy at its upstream was observed. The haplotype network, phylogenetic trees, and ancestral state reconstruction of the combined dataset of five loci suggested multiple origins of the same repeat number. The turnover model via slipped-strand mispairing was introduced to interpret the results, because mispairing occurred so frequently that multiple origins of certain repeat number were observed. Insertion via recombination should be a better explanation for the origin of this tandem repeat unit, considering characteristics of the combined sequence of the 3' and 5' imperfect copy, including identification of its homolog in other passerines and its predicted secondary structure.

  17. Space Weather Research: Indian perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhardwaj, Anil; Pant, Tarun Kumar; Choudhary, R. K.; Nandy, Dibyendu; Manoharan, P. K.

    2016-12-01

    Space weather, just like its meteorological counterpart, is of extreme importance when it comes to its impact on terrestrial near- and far-space environments. In recent years, space weather research has acquired an important place as a thrust area of research having implications both in space science and technology. The presence of satellites and other technological systems from different nations in near-Earth space necessitates that one must have a comprehensive understanding not only of the origin and evolution of space weather processes but also of their impact on technology and terrestrial upper atmosphere. To address this aspect, nations across the globe including India have been investing in research concerning Sun, solar processes and their evolution from solar interior into the interplanetary space, and their impact on Earth's magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere system. In India, over the years, a substantial amount of work has been done in each of these areas by various agencies/institutions. In fact, India has been, and continues to be, at the forefront of space research and has ambitious future programs concerning these areas encompassing space weather. This review aims at providing a glimpse of this Indian perspective on space weather research to the reader and presenting an up-to-date status of the same.

  18. Weather in Your Life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kannegieter, Sandy; Wirkler, Linda

    Facts and activities related to weather and meteorology are presented in this unit. Separate sections cover the following topics: (1) the water cycle; (2) clouds; (3) the Beaufort Scale for rating the speed and force of wind; (4) the barometer; (5) weather prediction; (6) fall weather in Iowa (sleet, frost, and fog); (7) winter weather in Iowa…

  19. Benthic macrofaunal colonization patterns and preservation of laminated sediments: Observations in an extreme coastal basin environment in the lower Gulf of California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herguera, J.; Paull, C. K.; Anderson, K.; Gwiazda, R.; Lundsten, E. M.; Kundz, L.; Edwards, B. D.; McGann, M. L.

    2012-12-01

    New observations and cores obtained with the ROV Doc Ricketts operated from the RV/Western Flyer provide a glimpse into a macrofauna barren sea-floor where laminated sediments are known to accumulate on the sea-floor of Alfonso Basin. This basin, located north of La Paz Bay, Baja California, is known to be an important repository of laminated sediments due to a combination of the relatively high input of terrigenous sediments brought in by summer rains, a moderate to high export productivity from its surface waters, and the very low oxygen concentrations at depth bathed by tropical subsurface waters. These laminated sediments are unique repositories of paleoceanographic and paleoclimatic information for its very high resolution records of past conditions comparable to ice core, tree ring, coral and cave records although spanning continuously much further back in time. However, the paleoceanographic community rarely has had the opportunity to visualize the seafloor surface where these sediments are accumulating and examine the biological abundance patterns in these extreme environments. Here we will show results from ROV Doc Ricketts quantitative video transects providing benthic faunal abundance patterns on the seafloor in these highly oxygen depleted bottom waters. These observations are further compared with the underlying stratigraphy. A coring system carried on the ROV allowed us to replicate cores and to collect a transect of 5 closely spaced cores to evaluate the horizontal extent of the observed variability down-core. We will also show some preliminary results from x-radiographs showing the nature of the laminations and its sediment composition based on elemental analysis on organic carbon, carbonate and biogenic opal analysis. New XRF results from a box core will be used to calibrate its terrigenous components with the historical rainfall record and evaluate its potential to reconstruct summer precipitation patterns in this region.

  20. Whitefly (Bemisia tabaci Genn. , Stern. : Aleyrodidae) infestation patterns as influenced by cotton, weather and Heliothis: hypotheses testing by using simulation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baumgaertner, J.; Delucchi, V.; Von Arx, R.; Rubli, D.

    1986-01-01

    The whitefly Bemisia tabaci Genn. is an important pest on cotton in the Sudan Gezira. A population model based on the age-specific and time-varying life table approach has been constructed and validated for B. tabaci and the cotton variety Barac. Simulation experiments indicate that weather conditions are favourable for whitefly development until late autumn, when the bolls of early sown Barac open. Host plant quality, as measured by leaf age structure, is a very important factor in the B. tabaci life system. Reduced photosynthesis decreases and delays yield formation, but appears to have little effect on whitefly infestation levels at the time the bolls open. Simulated damage caused by Heliothis larvae to fruiting structures alters the growth of the plants, changes the age structures of the leaves and suggests increased whitefly numbers at the time of boll opening. 27 refs., 6 figs.

  1. Exploring the interannual variability of extreme wave climate in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Izaguirre, Cristina; Menéndez, Melisa; Camus, Paula; Méndez, Fernando J.; Mínguez, Roberto; Losada, Inigo J.

    2012-12-01

    The extreme wave climate is of paramount importance for: (i) off-shore and coastal engineering design, (ii) ship design and maritime transportation, or (iii) analysis of coastal processes. Identifying the synoptic patterns that produce extreme waves is necessary to understand the wave climate for a specific location. Thus, a characterization of these weather patterns may allow the study of the relationships between the magnitude and occurrence of extreme wave events and the climate system. The aim of this paper is to analyze the interannual variability of extreme wave heights. For this purpose, we present a methodological framework and its application to an area over the North East (NE) Atlantic Ocean. The climatology in the NE Atlantic is analyzed using the self-organizing maps (SOMs). The application of this clustering technique to monthly mean sea level pressure fields provides a continuum of synoptic categorizations compared with discrete realizations produced through most traditional methods. The extreme wave climate has been analyzed by means of monthly maxima of the significant wave height (SWH) in several locations over the NE Atlantic. A statistical approach based on a time-dependent generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution has been applied. The seasonal variation was characterized and, afterwards, the interannual variability was studied throughout regional pressure patterns. The anomalies of the 50-year return level estimates of SWH, due to interannual variability have been projected into the weather types of SOM. It provides a comprehensive visual representation, which relates the weather type with the positive or negative contribution to extreme waves over the selected locations.

  2. Proximate weather patterns and spring green-up phenology effect Eurasian beaver (Castor fiber) body mass and reproductive success: the implications of climate change and topography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Ruairidh D; Newman, Chris; Macdonald, David W; Rosell, Frank

    2013-04-01

    Low spring temperatures have been found to benefit mobile herbivores by reducing the rate of spring-flush, whereas high rainfall increases forage availability. Cold winters prove detrimental, by increasing herbivore thermoregulatory burdens. Here we examine the effects of temperature and rainfall variability on a temperate sedentary herbivore, the Eurasian beaver, Castor fiber, in terms of inter-annual variation in mean body weight and per territory offspring production. Data pertain to 198 individuals, over 11 years, using capture-mark-recapture. We use plant growth (tree cores) and fAPAR (a satellite-derived plant productivity index) to examine potential mechanisms through which weather conditions affect the availability and the seasonal phenology of beaver forage. Juvenile body weights were lighter after colder winters, whereas warmer spring temperatures were associated with lighter adult body weights, mediated by enhanced green-up phenology rates. Counter-intuitively, we observed a negative association between rainfall and body weight in juveniles and adults, and also with reproductive success. Alder, Alnus incana, (n = 68) growth rings (principal beaver food in the study area) exhibited a positive relationship with rainfall for trees growing at elevations >2 m above water level, but a negative relationship for trees growing water level, prone to water logging, producing poorer forage in wetter years. Unlike most other herbivores, beavers are an obligate aquatic species that utilize a restricted 'central-place' foraging range, limiting their ability to take advantage of better forage growth further from water during wetter years. With respect to anthropogenic climate change, interactions between weather variables, plant phenology and topography on forage growth are instructive, and consequently warrant examination when developing conservation management strategies for populations of medium to large herbivores. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  3. Dealing with Challenges of Extreme Weather Events --Thinking about Strengthening Cooperation and Communication Between%应对极端天气气候事件的挑战——对加强社会科学与自然科学交流合作的思考

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郑寒; 杨金涛

    2011-01-01

    Global climate change has caused multiple extreme weather events, such as severe drought, frozen, heavy rain, etc. , To deal with the occurence of extreme weather events,this paper proposes strengthening social and human sciences research in addition to t%指出了全球气候变化引发严重干旱、冰冻、暴雨等极端天气气候事件的多发,指出了应对极端天气气候事件除自然科学的研究外还应加强社会人文科学的研究,实现多学科的联合,探讨了在减灾防灾时提供人文科学的方法,将灾害的影响和损失降到最低,对学科间加强交流合作进行了思考。

  4. 燃气轮机高效空气过滤器在极端天气下的应用对策%Countermeasures of Gas Turbine High Efficiency Air Filters in Extreme Weather Conditions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李俊; 龙涛

    2015-01-01

    对燃气轮机的进气过滤系统进行了升级改造,将进气过滤系统的过滤等级由F8级提升到了H11级。改造后过滤效率明显提升,压气机长期不需要进行水洗,保持在高效率状态下运行,发电机组的平均发电效率也得以提升,经济效益非常可观。升级后的进气过滤系统在现场运行过程中遇到了多种恶劣天气工况,如沙尘、暴雨大雾天气和空气中含油性物质等。通过对过滤器的滤材及结构进行改进,最终开发和筛选出对各种恶劣大气条件适应性强的高效过滤器。同时在日常运行中,我们也积累了一些处理突发状况的经验和总结了一些合理使用高效过滤器的策略。%The level of filtration of the inlet air filtration system for gas turbine was upgraded from F8 to H11.The filtration efficiency of air intake system improved significantly after the improvement was completed.The compressor need not washing for long term, and can keep working in a high state of efficiency.The average power generation efficiency of the unit can be improved which can bring consid-erable economic benefit.The upgraded air inlet filter system run in variety of weather conditions , such as sand dust weather, rainstorm weather, foggy weather and the condition that the air always contains oil substance.We found the type of High Efficiency Particulate Air ( HEPA) filter which can be well adapted to a variety of bad weather by improving the material and structure of filers.At the same time,some deal with emergency situation experiences accumulated during daily operation and some reasonable use strategy of HEPA fil-ter is summarized.

  5. Synoptic Variability of Extreme Snowfall in the St. Elias Mountains, Yukon, Canada

    OpenAIRE

    Andin, Caroline

    2015-01-01

    Glaciers of southwestern Yukon (Canada) and southeastern Alaska (USA) are presently experiencing high rates of annual mass loss. These high melt rates have mainly been investigated with respect to regional temperature trends, but comparatively little is known about how climate variations regulate snow accumulation on these glaciers. This study examines the synoptic weather patterns and air flow trajectories associated with extreme snowfall events in the central St. Elias Mountains (Yukon). Th...

  6. Analogues of atmospheric circulation to probe extreme and rare events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yiou, P.

    2015-12-01

    Analogues of atmospheric circulation have had many applications, from weather prediction to the downscaling of climate variables. The main assumptions behind this methodology are that climate variables (such as temperature or precipitation) are linked a large-scale atmospheric predictand, which is usually taken as sea-level pressure, and that such predictands recur through time. They offer a possibility to estimate probability distributions of a climate variable, conditional to patterns of atmospheric circulation. In addition, this methodology allows the quantification of unusual weather patterns that have been observed. I will represent a way to use analogues of circulation for the detection/attribution of extreme events of precipitation and temperature. This approach will be illustrated on test cases, including the warm European winter of 2006/2007, the extremes of precipitation over Southern UK and northwestern France in January 2014, and the European summer of 2015. I will show how this analysis provides a low-cost estimate of the fraction of attributable risk (FAR) for extreme events that verify the above mentioned hypotheses. Such an analysis can be performed in continuous time with reanalysis data and meteorological observations.

  7. Autumn Weather and Winter Increase in Cerebrovascular Disease Mortality

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    McDonagh, R

    2016-11-01

    Mortality from cerebrovascular disease increases in winter but the cause is unclear. Ireland’s oceanic climate means that it infrequently experiences extremes of weather. We examined how weather patterns relate to stroke mortality in Ireland. Seasonal data for Sunshine (% of average), Rainfall (% of average) and Temperature (degrees Celsius above average) were collected for autumn (September-November) and winter (December-February) using official Irish Meteorological Office data. National cerebrovascular mortality data was obtained from Quarterly Vital Statistics. Excess winter deaths were calculated by subtracting (nadir) 3rd quarter mortality data from subsequent 1st quarter data. Data for 12 years were analysed, 2002-2014. Mean winter mortality excess was 24.7%. Winter mortality correlated with temperature (r=.60, p=0.04). Rise in winter mortality correlated strongly with the weather in the preceding autumn (Rainfall: r=-0.19 p=0.53, Temperature: r=-0.60, p=0.03, Sunshine, r=0.58, p=0.04). Winter cerebrovascular disease mortality appears higher following cool, sunny autum

  8. Investigating the association between weather conditions, calendar events and socio-economic patterns with trends in fire incidence: an Australian case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corcoran, Jonathan; Higgs, Gary; Rohde, David; Chhetri, Prem

    2011-06-01

    Fires in urban areas can cause significant economic, physical and psychological damage. Despite this, there has been a comparative lack of research into the spatial and temporal analysis of fire incidence in urban contexts. In this paper, we redress this gap through an exploration of the association of fire incidence to weather, calendar events and socio-economic characteristics in South-East Queensland, Australia using innovative technique termed the quad plot. Analysing trends in five fire incident types, including malicious false alarms (hoax calls), residential buildings, secondary (outdoor), vehicle and suspicious fires, results suggest that risk associated with all is greatly increased during school holidays and during long weekends. For all fire types the lowest risk of incidence was found to occur between one and six a.m. It was also found that there was a higher fire incidence in socially disadvantaged neighbourhoods and there was some evidence to suggest that there may be a compounding impact of high temperatures in such areas. We suggest that these findings may be used to guide the operations of fire services through spatial and temporal targeting to better utilise finite resources, help mitigate risk and reduce casualties.

  9. Patterns of shrub species richness and abundance in relation to environmental factors on the Alxa Plateau:Prerequisites for conserving shrub diversity in extreme arid desert regions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    Shrub species are considered the dominant plants in arid desert ecosystems,unlike in semiarid steppe zones or in grassland ecosystems.On the Alxa Plateau,northern China,sparse vegetation with cover ranging from 15% to 30% is characterized mainly by multifarious shrubs because herbaceous species are strongly restricted by the extreme drought climate,wind erosion,overgrazing and sand burial.Patterns in shrub species richness and species abundance in relation to environmental conditions were examined by DCA(detrended correspondence analysis) and interpreted by a biplot.The rela-tionships between species diversity and environmental factors were examined using regression analyses.Our results show that the distributions of the shrub species in response to environmental conditions can be grouped into four ecological types,corresponding with the biological traits of the shrubs and their responses to the gradients of soil texture and soil water content.Patterns in species richness and species abundance were mainly determined by the deeper soil water content,instead of the soil texture as hypothesized by numerous studies in semiarid grasslands.With exception of the deeper soil water content,soil organic matter and total N content were positively correlated with species abundance,while pH was negatively correlated with it.These findings imply that it is vital for cur-rent shrub diversity conservation to reduce agricultural water use in the middle reaches of the Heihe River,which supplies water for the lower reaches in the western parts of the plateau,and to reduce the amount of groundwater exploitation and urban and oasis water use,to increase the water supply from Helan Mountain to the eastern desert of the Alxa Plateau.

  10. Patterns of shrub species richness and abundance in relation to environmental factors on the Alxa Plateau: Prerequisites for conserving shrub diversity in extreme arid desert regions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI XinRong; TAN HuiJuan; HE MingZhu; WANG XinPing; LI XiaoJun

    2009-01-01

    Shrub species are considered the dominant plants in arid desert ecosystems, unlike in semiarid steppe zones or in grassland ecosystems. On the Alxa Plateau, northern China, sparse vegetation with cover ranging from 15% to 30% is characterized mainly by multifarious shrubs because herbaceous species are strongly restricted by the extreme drought climate, wind erosion, overgrazing and sand burial. Patterns in shrub species richness and species abundance in relation to environmental conditions were examined by DCA (detrended correspondence analysis) and interpreted by a biplot. The rela-tionships between species diversity and environmental factors were examined using regression analyses. Our results show that the distributions of the shrub species in response to environmental conditions can be grouped into four ecological types, corresponding with the biological traits of the shrubs and their responses to the gradients of soil texture and soil water content. Patterns in species richness and species abundance were mainly determined by the deeper soil water content, instead of the soil texture as hypothesized by numerous studies in semiarid grasslands. With exception of the deeper soil water content, soil organic matter and total N content were positively correlated with spe-cies abundance, while pH was negatively correlated with it. These findings imply that it is vital for cur-rent shrub diversity conservation to reduce agricultural water use in the middle reaches of the Heihe River, which supplies water for the lower reaches in the western parts of the plateau, and to reduce the amount of groundwater exploitation and urban and oasis water use, to increase the water supply from Helan Mountain to the eastern desert of the Alxa Plateau.

  11. Assessing Nonstationary Spatial Patterns of Extreme Droughts from Long-Term High-Resolution Observational Dataset on a Semiarid Basin (Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra G. Garcia Galiano

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available In basins of South-eastern Spain; such as the semiarid Segura River Basin (SRB, a strong decrease in runoff from the end of the 1970s has been observed. However, in the SRB the decreasing trend is not only related with climate variability and change, also with intensive reforestation aimed at halting desertification and erosion, whichever the reason is, the default assumption of stationarity in water resources systems cannot be guaranteed. Therefore there is an important need for improvement in the ability of monitoring and predicting the impacts associated with the change of hydrologic regimes. It is thus necessary to apply non-stationary probabilistic models, which are able to reproduce probability density functions whose parameters vary with time. From a high-resolution daily gridded rainfall dataset of more than five decades (1950−2007, the spatial distribution of lengths of maximum dry spells for several thresholds are assessed, applying Generalized Additive Models for Location Scale and Shape (GAMLSS models at the grid site. Results reveal an intensification of extreme drought events in some headbasins of the SRB important for water supply. The identification of spatial patterns of drought hazards at basin scale, associated with return periods; contribute to designing strategies of drought contingency preparedness and recovery operations, which are the leading edge of adaptation strategies.

  12. Extreme patterns of variance in small populations: placing limits on human Y-chromosome diversity through time in the Vanuatu Archipelago.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, M

    2007-05-01

    Small populations are dominated by unique patterns of variance, largely characterized by rapid drift of allele frequencies. Although the variance components of genetic datasets have long been recognized, most population genetic studies still treat all sampling locations equally despite differences in sampling and effective population sizes. Because excluding the effects of variance can lead to significant biases in historical reconstruction, variance components should be incorporated explicitly into population genetic analyses. The possible magnitude of variance effects in small populations is illustrated here via a case study of Y-chromosome haplogroup diversity in the Vanuatu Archipelago. Deme-based modelling is used to simulate allele frequencies through time, and conservative confidence bounds are placed on the accumulation of stochastic variance effects, including diachronic genetic drift and contemporary sampling error. When the information content of the dataset has been ascertained, demographic models with parameters falling outside the confidence bounds of the variance components can then be accepted with some statistical confidence. Here I emphasize how aspects of the demographic history of a population can be disentangled from stochastic variance effects, and I illustrate the extreme roles of genetic drift and sampling error for many small human population datasets.

  13. Application of computational lower extremity model to investigate different muscle activities and joint force patterns in knee osteoarthritis patients during walking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nha, Kyung Wook; Dorj, Ariunzaya; Feng, Jun; Shin, Jun Ho; Kim, Jong In; Kwon, Jae Ho; Kim, Kyungsoo; Kim, Yoon Hyuk

    2013-01-01

    Many experimental and computational studies have reported that osteoarthritis in the knee joint affects knee biomechanics, including joint kinematics, joint contact forces, and muscle activities, due to functional restriction and disability. In this study, differences in muscle activities and joint force patterns between knee osteoarthritis (OA) patients and normal subjects during walking were investigated using the inverse dynamic analysis with a lower extremity musculoskeletal model. Extensor/flexor muscle activations and torque ratios and the joint contact forces were compared between the OA and normal groups. The OA patients had higher extensor muscle forces and lateral component of the knee joint force than normal subjects as well as force and torque ratios of extensor and flexor muscles, while the other parameters had little differences. The results explained that OA patients increased the level of antagonistic cocontraction and the adduction moment on the knee joint. The presented findings and technologies provide insight into biomechanical changes in OA patients and can also be used to evaluate the postoperative functional outcomes of the OA treatments.

  14. Application of Computational Lower Extremity Model to Investigate Different Muscle Activities and Joint Force Patterns in Knee Osteoarthritis Patients during Walking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyung Wook Nha

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Many experimental and computational studies have reported that osteoarthritis in the knee joint affects knee biomechanics, including joint kinematics, joint contact forces, and muscle activities, due to functional restriction and disability. In this study, differences in muscle activities and joint force patterns between knee osteoarthritis (OA patients and normal subjects during walking were investigated using the inverse dynamic analysis with a lower extremity musculoskeletal model. Extensor/flexor muscle activations and torque ratios and the joint contact forces were compared between the OA and normal groups. The OA patients had higher extensor muscle forces and lateral component of the knee joint force than normal subjects as well as force and torque ratios of extensor and flexor muscles, while the other parameters had little differences. The results explained that OA patients increased the level of antagonistic cocontraction and the adduction moment on the knee joint. The presented findings and technologies provide insight into biomechanical changes in OA patients and can also be used to evaluate the postoperative functional outcomes of the OA treatments.

  15. Verification of Space Weather Forecasts using Terrestrial Weather Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henley, E.; Murray, S.; Pope, E.; Stephenson, D.; Sharpe, M.; Bingham, S.; Jackson, D.

    2015-12-01

    The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) provides a range of 24/7 operational space weather forecasts, alerts, and warnings, which provide valuable information on space weather that can degrade electricity grids, radio communications, and satellite electronics. Forecasts issued include arrival times of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and probabilistic forecasts for flares, geomagnetic storm indices, and energetic particle fluxes and fluences. These forecasts are produced twice daily using a combination of output from models such as Enlil, near-real-time observations, and forecaster experience. Verification of forecasts is crucial for users, researchers, and forecasters to understand the strengths and limitations of forecasters, and to assess forecaster added value. To this end, the Met Office (in collaboration with Exeter University) has been adapting verification techniques from terrestrial weather, and has been working closely with the International Space Environment Service (ISES) to standardise verification procedures. We will present the results of part of this work, analysing forecast and observed CME arrival times, assessing skill using 2x2 contingency tables. These MOSWOC forecasts can be objectively compared to those produced by the NASA Community Coordinated Modelling Center - a useful benchmark. This approach cannot be taken for the other forecasts, as they are probabilistic and categorical (e.g., geomagnetic storm forecasts give probabilities of exceeding levels from minor to extreme). We will present appropriate verification techniques being developed to address these forecasts, such as rank probability skill score, and comparing forecasts against climatology and persistence benchmarks. As part of this, we will outline the use of discrete time Markov chains to assess and improve the performance of our geomagnetic storm forecasts. We will also discuss work to adapt a terrestrial verification visualisation system to space weather, to help

  16. [Functional electrical stimulation based on a working pattern influences function of lower extremity in subjects with early stroke and effects on diffusion tensor imaging: a randomized controlled trial].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Danfeng; Yan, Tiebin; Li, Guandong; Li, Fangming; Liang, Qitang

    2014-10-14

    To explore the possible mechanisms for improving lower extremity motor function in patients with early stroke through combining magnetic resonance diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) technology and functional electrical stimulation (FES) based on human walking patterns. From August 2012 to September 2013, a total of 48 eligible patients were stratified according to age, gender, disease course, Brunnstrom staging and types of stroke. And the Minimize software was used to divided them randomly into four-channel FES group (n = 18), dual-channel FES group (n = 15) and comfort stimulation group (n = 15). For all three groups, general medication and standard rehabilitation were provided. Based on normal walking pattern design of FES treatment, four-channel FES groups received the stimulations of quadriceps, hamstring, anterior tibialis and medial gastrocnemius. For the dual-channel FES group, the stimulations of tibialis anterior, peroneus longus and peroneus brevis muscles were applied. In comfort electrical stimulation group, the electrode positions were identical to the stimulation group, but there was no current output during stimulation. Before and after 3-week treatment, three groups received weekly rehabilitation evaluations of Fugl-Meyer assessment (FMA), posture assessment of stroke scale (PASS), Brunel balance assessment (BBA), Berg balance scale (BBS) and modified Barthel index (MBI). Before and after treatment, DTI examination was performed for some patients. Among three groups, general patient profiles and pre-treatment evaluations showed no significant difference. For intra-group comparisons versus pre-treatment, at week 1, 2 and 3, the scores of PASS, BBA, BBS, FMA and MBI had statistically significant differences (P stimulation group. When dual-channel FES and comfort stimulation groups were compared, MBI had significant statistical difference [(60 ± 17) vs (47 ± 20), P stimulation group respectively. When dual-channel FES and comfort stimulation groups were

  17. Weather data analysis based on typical weather sequence analysis. Application: energy building simulation

    CERN Document Server

    David, Mathieu; Garde, Francois; Boyer, Harry

    2014-01-01

    In building studies dealing about energy efficiency and comfort, simulation software need relevant weather files with optimal time steps. Few tools generate extreme and mean values of simultaneous hourly data including correlation between the climatic parameters. This paper presents the C++ Runeole software based on typical weather sequences analysis. It runs an analysis process of a stochastic continuous multivariable phenomenon with frequencies properties applied to a climatic database. The database analysis associates basic statistics, PCA (Principal Component Analysis) and automatic classifications. Different ways of applying these methods will be presented. All the results are stored in the Runeole internal database that allows an easy selection of weather sequences. The extreme sequences are used for system and building sizing and the mean sequences are used for the determination of the annual cooling loads as proposed by Audrier-Cros (Audrier-Cros, 1984). This weather analysis was tested with the datab...

  18. 一个创新研究——大气数值模式变量的物理分解及其在极端事件预报中的应用%An innovation study on the physical decomposition of numerical model atmospheric variables and their application in weather extreme events

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    丑纪范

    2012-01-01

    Numerical weather model variables such as temperature, humidity, pressure (geo-potential height) and winds can be decomposed as four components, including the zonal time-average climate symmetric part, the time-average climate asymmetric part, the planetary-scale zonal-average transient symmetric anomaly, and the regional-scale transient asymmetric anomaly. Regional persistent extreme weather events such as drought, flood, heat wave, low temperature and freezing rain have closely relations with the present and previous planetary-scale and regional-scale atmospheric anomalies based on the numerical model output. The anomaly weather map may be a new tool to predict the extreme weather events. After a summery of innovation results from 9 papers published in this volume, some theoretical problems and applying foregrounds of variable physical decomposition are discussed in this paper.%大气温度、湿度、位势高度和风等数值模式变量可以物理分解为纬圈-时间平均的对称部分和时间平均的非对称部分,以及行星尺度瞬变扰动和天气尺度瞬变扰动等四个部分.区域持续性干旱、暴雨、热浪、低温和雨雪冰冻等极端天气事件与前期及同期数值模式中的行星尺度和天气尺度大气扰动系统之间呈现出密切的关系.瞬变扰动天气图可成为预报极端天气事件的新工具.本文在归纳本期9篇原创性文章的基础上,探讨大气变量物理分解后需要进一步研究的理论问题和应用前景.

  19. Land Surface Weather Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — METAR is the international standard code format for hourly surface weather observations. The acronym roughly translates from French as Aviation Routine Weather...

  20. Project Weather and Water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Pal J. Kirkeby

    2000-01-01

    Introduces Project Weather and Water with the goal of developing and testing ideas of how to implement weather topics and water physics in an integrated way. Discusses teacher preparation, implementation, and evaluation of this project. (ASK)

  1. Pilot Weather Reports

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Aviation weather reports relayed from pilots to FAA air traffic controllers or National Weather Service personnel. Elements include sky cover, turbulence, wind...

  2. Natural Weathering Exposure Station

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Corps of Engineers' Treat Island Natural Weathering Exposure Station is a long-term natural weathering facility used to study concrete durability. Located on the...

  3. Surface Weather Observations Hourly

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Standard hourly observations taken at Weather Bureau/National Weather Service offices and airports throughout the United States. Hourly observations began during the...

  4. Surface Weather Observing Manuals

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Manuals and instructions for taking weather observations. Includes the annual Weather Bureau 'Instructions for Preparing Meteorological Forms...' and early airways...

  5. Daily Weather Records

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These daily weather records were compiled from a subset of stations in the Global Historical Climatological Network (GHCN)-Daily dataset. A weather record is...

  6. Winter Weather Emergencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Severe winter weather can lead to health and safety challenges. You may have to cope with Cold related health problems, including ... there are no guarantees of safety during winter weather emergencies, you can take actions to protect yourself. ...

  7. National Convective Weather Diagnostic

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Current convective hazards identified by the National Convective Weather Detection algorithm. The National Convective Weather Diagnostic (NCWD) is an automatically...

  8. Internet Weather Source

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Weather Service (NWS) National Telecommunications Gateway provides weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States, its...

  9. Weather Radar Stations

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — These data represent Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) and Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) weather radar stations within the US. The NEXRAD radar stations are...

  10. Extreme cyclone events in the Arctic: Wintertime variability and trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rinke, A.; Maturilli, M.; Graham, R. M.; Matthes, H.; Handorf, D.; Cohen, L.; Hudson, S. R.; Moore, J. C.

    2017-09-01

    Typically 20-40 extreme cyclone events (sometimes called ‘weather bombs’) occur in the Arctic North Atlantic per winter season, with an increasing trend of 6 events/decade over 1979-2015, according to 6 hourly station data from Ny-Ålesund. This increased frequency of extreme cyclones is consistent with observed significant winter warming, indicating that the meridional heat and moisture transport they bring is a factor in rising temperatures in the region. The winter trend in extreme cyclones is dominated by a positive monthly trend of about 3-4 events/decade in November-December, due mainly to an increasing persistence of extreme cyclone events. A negative trend in January opposes this, while there is no significant trend in February. We relate the regional patterns of the trend in extreme cyclones to anomalously low sea-ice conditions in recent years, together with associated large-scale atmospheric circulation changes such as ‘blockinglike’ circulation patterns (e.g. Scandinavian blocking in December and Ural blocking during January-February).

  11. Effects of weather on the abundance and distribution on populations of 103 breeding bird species across the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allstadt, A. J.; Gorzo, J.; Bateman, B. L.; Heglund, P. J.; Pidgeon, A. M.; Thogmartin, W.; Vavrus, S. J.; Radeloff, V.

    2016-12-01

    Often, fewer birds are often observed in an area experiencing extreme weather, as local populations tend to leave an area (via out-migration or concentration in refugia) or experience a change in population size (via mortality or reduced fecundity). Further, weather patterns are often coherent over large areas so unsuitable weather may threaten large portions of an entire species range simultaneously. However, beyond a few iconic irruptive species, rarely have studies applied both the necessary scale and sensitivity required to assess avian population responses over entire species range. Here, we examined the effects of pre-breeding season weather on the distribution and abundances of 103 North American bird species from the late 1966-2010 using observed abundance records from the Breeding Bird Survey. We compared abundances with measures of drought and temperature over each species' range, and with three atmospheric teleconnections that describe large-scale circulation patterns influencing conditions on the ground. More than 90% of the species responded to at least one of our five weather variables. Grassland bird species tended to be most responsive to weather conditions and forest birds the least, though we found relations among all habitat types. For most species, the response was movement rather than large effects on the overall population size. Maps of these responses indicate that concentration and out-migration are both common strategies for coping with challenging weather conditions across a species range. The dynamic distribution of many bird species makes clear the need to account for temporal variability in conservation planning, as areas that are less important for a species' breeding success in most years may be very important in years with abnormal weather conditions.

  12. Weather and mortality: a 10 year retrospective analysis of the Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance System, Burkina Faso

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rainer Sauerborn

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: A growing body of evidence points to the emission of greenhouse gases from human activity as a key factor in climate change. This in turn affects human health and wellbeing through consequential changes in weather extremes. At present, little is known about the effects of weather on the health of sub-Saharan African populations, as well as the related anticipated effects of climate change partly due to scarcity of good quality data. We aimed to study the association between weather patterns and daily mortality in the Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS area during 1999–2009. Methods: Meteorological data were obtained from a nearby weather station in the Nouna HDSS area and linked to mortality data on a daily basis. Time series Poisson regression models were established to estimate the association between the lags of weather and daily population-level mortality, adjusting for time trends. The analyses were stratified by age and sex to study differential population susceptibility. Results: We found profound associations between higher temperature and daily mortality in the Nouna HDSS, Burkina Faso. The short-term direct heat effect was particularly strong on the under-five child mortality rate. We also found independent coherent effects and strong associations between rainfall events and daily mortality, particularly in elderly populations. Conclusion: Mortality patterns in the Nouna HDSS appear to be closely related to weather conditions. Further investigation on cause-specific mortality, as well as on vulnerability and susceptibility is required. Studies on local adaptation and mitigation measures to avoid health impacts from weather and climate change is also needed to reduce negative effects from weather and climate change on population health in rural areas of the sub-Saharan Africa.

  13. The power of weather

    OpenAIRE

    Christian Huurman; Francesco Ravazzolo; Chen Zhou

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the predictive power of weather for electricity prices in day ahead markets in real time. We find that next-day weather forecasts improve the forecast accuracy of Scandinavian day-ahead electricity prices substantially in terms of point forecasts, suggesting that weather forecasts can price the weather premium. This improvement strengthens the confidence in the forecasting model, which results in high center-mass predictive densities. In density forecast, such a predictive...

  14. Reliable Averages and Risky Extremes - Analysis of spatio-temporal variability in solar irradiance and persistent cloud cover patterns over Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahl, Annelen; Nguyen, Viet-Anh; Sarrasin, Karine; Lehning, Michael

    2016-04-01

    With the perspective of Switzerland's phase-out from nuclear energy, solar energy potential may take a leading role for the country's future in renewable energy. Unlike nuclear power stations, photovoltaic (PV) production is prone to intermittency as it depends on the immediate solar irradiance, which fluctuates in space and time. If a large percentage of Switzerland's electricity was to be derived from solar radiation, stochastic fluctuations pose a risk to the robust supply and healthy function of the electricity network. For most efficient PV planning and siting, it is hence imperative to understand and quantify this variability in solar radiation, in order to anticipate average production as well as worst-case scenarios. Based on 12 years of satellite derived, spatially distributed data of daily average surface incoming shortwave radiation (SIS) this work analyses standard statistics, spatial correlation patterns and extreme conditions of cloud cover over Switzerland. Having compared different irradiance products, we decided to use the SIS product captured on the Meteosat Second Generation satellites, because it provides the most reliable snow/cloud discrimination, which is essential for spatial analysis over alpine terrain. Particularly in regions with high elevation differences, correlation between cloud cover and elevation undergo an annual cycle. In winter more clouds are found in the valleys, while in summer convective clouds dominate at higher elevations. The highest average irradiance values occur in the southern parts of the country, and make the cantons of Vallais, Tessin and Grison ideal candidate locations for PV installations. Simultaneously the Tessin shows a higher risk of periods with long lasting cloud cover, which would discourage from relying too much on solar power in that area. However looking at the question of suitability by studying spatial and temporal correlations of extremes, we see that the Tessin appears to be comparably decoupled

  15. Taming the Mighty Mississippi: Integrating paleo-flood data and modeling to understand the patterns and causes of extreme floods on a major river system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munoz, Samuel; Giosan, Liviu; Jeffrey, Donnelly; Dee, Sylvia; Shen, Zhixiong

    2016-04-01

    The Mississippi River is an economic artery of the United States that is heavily managed to provide flood control and maintain a navigable shipping channel. The current system of levees and spillway structures was conceived in the early 20th century, but the ability of this system to withstand the altered hydroclimatic conditions projected for the next century is poorly understood. Here, we present initial results from a project that integrates new sedimentary records from floodplain lakes with analyses of sediment geochemistry and climate model simulations to better understand the causes of extreme floods on the lower Mississippi River. In our sedimentary paleoflood records, flood event beds are characterized by an upward fining sequence from deposition of the bedload and suspended load during overbank floods, identified here using high-resolution laser particle-size analysis and elemental composition (XRF), and dated using radioisotopes (137Cs, 210Pb, 14C) and optically-stimulated luminescence (OSL) on quartz. Grain-size descriptors and elemental ratios of Zr/Fe and Fe/Rb are highly correlated, and are used alongside historical discharge records to develop a statistical model for reconstructing flood magnitude in prehistoric contexts. Geochemical analyses of sediments from the floodplains of major tributaries of the Mississippi are used to assess the systematics of 87Sr/86Sr, 143Nd/144Nd, 206Pb/204Pb, and 208Pb/204Pb across the basin, enabling identification of the synoptic patterns of individual paleo-flood events. We investigate the dynamical drivers of past floods on the lower Mississippi using both reanalysis data and the last millennium simulation from NCAR model CESM1 to find that increased likelihoods of extreme floods on the lower Mississippi River are associated with enhanced moisture flux over midcontinental North America that is controlled by the interaction of seasonally variable soil moisture over major tributaries with inter-annual (e.g., ENSO) and

  16. Weather Fundamentals: Meteorology. [Videotape].

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998

    The videos in this educational series, for grades 4-7, help students understand the science behind weather phenomena through dramatic live-action footage, vivid animated graphics, detailed weather maps, and hands-on experiments. This episode (23 minutes) looks at how meteorologists gather and interpret current weather data collected from sources…

  17. Cold-Weather Sports

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Surgery? A Week of Healthy Breakfasts Shyness Cold-Weather Sports KidsHealth > For Teens > Cold-Weather Sports A A A What's in this article? ... Equipment Ahh, winter! Shorter days. Frigid temperatures. Foul weather. What better time to be outdoors? Winter sports ...

  18. Convective Weather Avoidance with Uncertain Weather Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karahan, Sinan; Windhorst, Robert D.

    2009-01-01

    Convective weather events have a disruptive impact on air traffic both in terminal area and in en-route airspaces. In order to make sure that the national air transportation system is safe and efficient, it is essential to respond to convective weather events effectively. Traffic flow control initiatives in response to convective weather include ground delay, airborne delay, miles-in-trail restrictions as well as tactical and strategic rerouting. The rerouting initiatives can potentially increase traffic density and complexity in regions neighboring the convective weather activity. There is a need to perform rerouting in an intelligent and efficient way such that the disruptive effects of rerouting are minimized. An important area of research is to study the interaction of in-flight rerouting with traffic congestion or complexity and developing methods that quantitatively measure this interaction. Furthermore, it is necessary to find rerouting solutions that account for uncertainties in weather forecasts. These are important steps toward managing complexity during rerouting operations, and the paper is motivated by these research questions. An automated system is developed for rerouting air traffic in order to avoid convective weather regions during the 20- minute - 2-hour time horizon. Such a system is envisioned to work in concert with separation assurance (0 - 20-minute time horizon), and longer term air traffic management (2-hours and beyond) to provide a more comprehensive solution to complexity and safety management. In this study, weather is dynamic and uncertain; it is represented as regions of airspace that pilots are likely to avoid. Algorithms are implemented in an air traffic simulation environment to support the research study. The algorithms used are deterministic but periodically revise reroutes to account for weather forecast updates. In contrast to previous studies, in this study convective weather is represented as regions of airspace that pilots

  19. Mandelbrot's Extremism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beirlant, J.; Schoutens, W.; Segers, J.J.J.

    2004-01-01

    In the sixties Mandelbrot already showed that extreme price swings are more likely than some of us think or incorporate in our models.A modern toolbox for analyzing such rare events can be found in the field of extreme value theory.At the core of extreme value theory lies the modelling of maxima

  20. Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program - Weatherization Assistance Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2010-06-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Weatherization Assistance Program reduces energy costs for low-income households by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes, while ensuring their health and safety.

  1. Early warnings of extreme winds using the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Petroliagis, Thomas I; Pinson, Pierre

    2014-01-01

    .... Overall, it becomes clear that the first indications of an extreme wind event might come from the ECMWF deterministic and/or probabilistic components capturing very intense weather systems (possible windstorms) in the medium term...

  2. Weather impacts on natural, social and economic systems. German report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flechsig, M.; Gerlinger, K.; Herrmann, N.; Klein, R.J.T.; Schneider, M.; Sterr, H.; Schellnhuber, H.J.

    2000-05-01

    The EU project Weather Impacts on Natural, Social and Economic Systems (WISE) has analysed impacts of current climate variability to evaluate the sensitivity of today's society to extreme weather. Unlike studies of anticipated impacts of climate change, WISE did not rely on scenarios and projections, but on existing and newly collected data. The research involved (i) the statistical modelling of meteorological and sectoral time series, aimed at quantifying the impacts of changing weather variables on sector output, (ii) a population survey, aimed at investigating public perception of and behavioural response to unusually hot and dry summers and mild winters, and (iii) a management survey, aimed at obtaining insight into managers' awareness and perception of the importance of extreme weather on their operations. The three activities revealed a wealth of data and information, providing relevant insights into Germany's sensitivity to and perception of extreme weather events. Sectors that were analysed included agriculture, outdoor fire, water supply, human health, electricity and gas consumption and tourism. It appears from the statistical modelling that extreme weather can have impressive impacts on all sectors, especially when expressed in monetary terms. However, weather variability is generally considered a manageable risk, to which sectors in Germany appear reasonably well-adapted. The population and management surveys reveal both positive and negative impacts of extreme weather. People generally respond to these impacts by adjusting their activities. The utilities (electricity, gas and water) indicate that they are robsut to the current level of weather variability and do not consider climate change an important threat to their operations. The tourism sector experiences impacts but typically takes a reactive approach to adaptation, although it is also developing weather-insensitive products. (orig.)

  3. Seasonal Forecasts of Extreme Conditions for Wildland Fire Management in Alaska using NMME

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhatt, U. S.; Bieniek, P.; Thoman, R.; York, A.; Ziel, R.

    2016-12-01

    The summer of 2015 was the second largest Alaska fire season since 1950 where approximately the land area of Massachusetts burned. The record fire year of 2004 resulted in 6.5 million acres burned and was costly from property loss (> 35M) and emergency personnel (> 17M). In addition to requiring significant resources, wildfire smoke impacts air quality in Alaska and downstream into North America. Fires in Alaska result from lightning strikes coupled with persistent (extreme) dry warm conditions in remote areas with limited fire management and the seasonal climate/weather determine the extent of the fire season in Alaska. Fire managers rely on weather/climate outlooks for allocating staff and resources from days to a season in advance. Though currently few tested products are available at the seasonal scale. Probabilistic forecasts of the expected seasonal climate/weather would aid tremendously in the planning process. Advanced knowledge of both lightning and fuel conditions would assist managers in planning resource allocation for the upcoming season. For fuel conditions, the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System (CFFWIS) has been used since 1992 because it better suits the Alaska fire regime than the standard US National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS). This CFFWIS is based on early afternoon values of 2-m air temperature, relative humidity, and 10-m winds and daily total precipitation. Extremes of these indices and the variables are used to calculate these indices will be defined in reference to fire weather for the boreal forest. The CFFWIS will be applied and evaluated for the NMME hindcasts. This study will evaluate the quality of the forecasts comparing the hindcast NMME CFFWIS to acres burned in Alaska. Spatial synoptic patterns in the NMME related to fire weather extremes will be constructed using self-organized maps and probabilities of occurrence will be evaluated against acres burned.

  4. Weather, Climate and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beer, T.

    2016-12-01

    To climatologists food security is dominated by the impacts of weather and climate on food systems. But the link between the atmosphere and food security is more complex. Extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones impact directly on agriculture, but they also impact on the logistical distribution of food and can thus disrupt the food supply chain, especially in urban areas. Drought affects human life and health as well as impacting dramatically on the sustainable development of society. It represents a pending danger for vulnerable agricultural systems that depend on the rainfall, water supply and reservoirs. Developed countries are affected, but the impact is disproportionate within the developing world. Drought, especially when it results in famine, can change the life and economic development of developing nations and stifle their development for decades. A holistic approach is required to understand the phenomena, to forecast catastrophic events such as drought and famine and to predict their societal consequences. In the Food Security recommendations of the Rio+20 Forum on Science, Technology and Innovation for Sustainable Development it states that it is important "To understand fully how to measure, assess and reduce the impacts of production on the natural environment including climate change, recognizing that different measures of impact (e.g. water, land, biodiversity, carbon and other greenhouse gases, etc) may trade-off against each other..." This talk will review the historical link between weather, climate, drought and food supplies; examine the international situation; and summarise the response of the scientific community

  5. The Weather and Climate Toolkit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ansari, S.; Del Greco, S.; Hankins, B.

    2010-12-01

    The Weather and Climate Toolkit (WCT) is free, platform independent software distributed from NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). The WCT allows the visualization and data export of weather and climate data, including Radar, Satellite and Model data. By leveraging the NetCDF for Java library and Common Data Model, the WCT is extremely scalable and capable of supporting many new datasets in the future. Gridded NetCDF files (regular and irregularly spaced, using Climate-Forecast (CF) conventions) are supported, along with many other formats including GRIB. The WCT provides tools for custom data overlays, Web Map Service (WMS) background maps, animations and basic filtering. The export of images and movies is provided in multiple formats. The WCT Data Export Wizard allows for data export in both vector polygon/point (Shapefile, Well-Known Text) and raster (GeoTIFF, ESRI Grid, VTK, Gridded NetCDF) formats. These data export features promote the interoperability of weather and climate information with various scientific communities and common software packages such as ArcGIS, Google Earth, MatLAB, GrADS and R. The WCT also supports an embedded, integrated Google Earth instance. The Google Earth Browser Plugin allows seamless visualization of data on a native 3-D Google Earth instance linked to the standard 2-D map. Level-II NEXRAD data for Hurricane Katrina GPCP (Global Precipitation Product), visualized in 2-D and internal Google Earth view.

  6. Extreme Associated Functions: Optimally Linking Local Extremes to Large-scale Atmospheric Circulation Structures

    CERN Document Server

    Panja, Debabrata

    2007-01-01

    We present a new statistical method to optimally link local weather extremes to large-scale atmospheric circulation structures. The method is illustrated using July-August daily mean temperature at 2m height (T2m) time-series over the Netherlands and 500 hPa geopotential height (Z500) time-series over the Euroatlantic region of the ECMWF reanalysis dataset (ERA40). The method identifies patterns in the Z500 time-series that optimally describe, in a precise mathematical sense, the relationship with local warm extremes in the Netherlands. Two patterns are identified; the most important one corresponds to a blocking high pressure system leading to subsidence and calm, dry and sunny conditions over the Netherlands. The second one corresponds to a rare, easterly flow regime bringing warm, dry air into the region. The patterns are robust; they are also identified in shorter subsamples of the total dataset. The method is generally applicable and might prove useful in evaluating the performance of climate models in s...

  7. Quantifying the spatio-temporal pattern of the ground impact of space weather events using dynamical networks formed from the SuperMAG database of ground based magnetometer stations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dods, Joe; Chapman, Sandra; Gjerloev, Jesper

    2016-04-01

    Quantitative understanding of the full spatial-temporal pattern of space weather is important in order to estimate the ground impact. Geomagnetic indices such as AE track the peak of a geomagnetic storm or substorm, but cannot capture the full spatial-temporal pattern. Observations by the ~100 ground based magnetometers in the northern hemisphere have the potential to capture the detailed evolution of a given space weather event. We present the first analysis of the full available set of ground based magnetometer observations of substorms using dynamical networks. SuperMAG offers a database containing ground station magnetometer data at a cadence of 1min from 100s stations situated across the globe. We use this data to form dynamic networks which capture spatial dynamics on timescales from the fast reconfiguration seen in the aurora, to that of the substorm cycle. Windowed linear cross-correlation between pairs of magnetometer time series along with a threshold is used to determine which stations are correlated and hence connected in the network. Variations in ground conductivity and differences in the response functions of magnetometers at individual stations are overcome by normalizing to long term averages of the cross-correlation. These results are tested against surrogate data in which phases have been randomised. The network is then a collection of connected points (ground stations); the structure of the network and its variation as a function of time quantify the detailed dynamical processes of the substorm. The network properties can be captured quantitatively in time dependent dimensionless network parameters and we will discuss their behaviour for examples of 'typical' substorms and storms. The network parameters provide a detailed benchmark to compare data with models of substorm dynamics, and can provide new insights on the similarities and differences between substorms and how they correlate with external driving and the internal state of the

  8. Development of a method to identify change in the pattern of extreme streamflow events in future climate: Application on the Bhadra reservoir inflow in India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Subbarao Pichuka

    2017-02-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: Demonstration of the proposed methodology with the inflow to Bhadra reservoir reveals that the daily extreme events are expected to increase in number with the increase in the threshold of the extreme. For a particular threshold, the average magnitude of the extreme events in the future is found to be higher as compared to the baseline period. However, for monthly totals the case is not the same − it remains almost similar. The methodology, being general in nature, can be applied to other locations in order to assess the future change in streamflow and other derived variables.

  9. Climate, not conflict, explains extreme Middle East dust storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parolari, Anthony J.; Li, Dan; Bou-Zeid, Elie; Katul, Gabriel G.; Assouline, Shmuel

    2016-11-01

    The recent dust storm in the Middle East (Sepember 2015) was publicized in the media as a sign of an impending ‘Dust Bowl.’ Its severity, demonstrated by extreme aerosol optical depth in the atmosphere in the 99th percentile compared to historical data, was attributed to the ongoing regional conflict. However, surface meteorological and remote sensing data, as well as regional climate model simulations, support an alternative hypothesis: the historically unprecedented aridity played a more prominent role, as evidenced by unusual climatic and meteorological conditions prior to and during the storm. Remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index demonstrates that vegetation cover was high in 2015 relative to the prior drought and conflict periods, suggesting that agricultural activity was not diminished during that year, thus negating the media narrative. Instead, meteorological simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model show that the storm was associated with a cyclone and ‘Shamal’ winds, typical for dust storm generation in this region, that were immediately followed by an unusual wind reversal at low levels that spread dust west to the Mediterranean Coast. These unusual meteorological conditions were aided by a significant reduction in the critical shear stress due to extreme dry and hot conditions, thereby enhancing dust availability for erosion during this storm. Concluding, unusual aridity, combined with unique synoptic weather patterns, enhanced dust emission and westward long-range transport across the region, thus generating the extreme storm.

  10. Spatial and temporal patterns in Saffron (Crocus sativus L. yield of Khorasan province and their relationship with long term weather variation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    mohamad hoseyni

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available With respect to effect of climatic changes on crop yields, study of long term trend of yields is conducted on the basis of statistical procedures that will be a suitable way to determine contribution of climatic factors affecting yield changes. As this trend of yield changes has been studied at regional and national levels in many parts of the world, conducting these studies will be necessary for Iran. So, with respect to economical importance and social aspect of saffron for Khorasan province and Iran, evaluation of yield trend of saffron in recent years and study of relationship of its changes to climatic changes have been purpose of this research. Findings show that yield reduction of saffron in Khorasan has been affected by changes in climatic indices particularly temperature and precipitation during the past ten years, so that among main cities of saffron cultivation in Khorasan 31 to 66 percent of yield variation can be explained by these climatic variables. In this research, from meteorological parameters, effect of precipitation compared with monthly temperature has been less and results show that precipitation has been effective only in Torbat-e-heidarieh while minimum and maximum monthly temperatures are considered as the most important variables affecting saffron yield. It was also concluded that temperatures of spring season and almost the first month of summer have highest effects on saffron yield. Patterns of increasing minimum and maximum temperatures of these months during the past ten years are related to trend of yield reduction in saffron, and It seems that this decreasing trend will be continued.