WorldWideScience

Sample records for extreme wave events

  1. Spectral characteristics of the nearshore waves off Paradip, India during monsoon and extreme events

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Aboobacker, V.M.; Vethamony, P.; Sudheesh, K.; Rupali, S.P.

    and directional wave energy spectra distinctly separate out the wave conditions that prevailed off Paradip in the monsoon, fair weather and extreme weather events during the above period. Frequency-energy spectra during extreme events are single peaked...

  2. Roadmap on optical rogue waves and extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akhmediev, Nail; Kibler, Bertrand; Baronio, Fabio; Belić, Milivoj; Zhong, Wei-Ping; Zhang, Yiqi; Chang, Wonkeun; Soto-Crespo, Jose M.; Vouzas, Peter; Grelu, Philippe; Lecaplain, Caroline; Hammani, K.; Rica, S.; Picozzi, A.; Tlidi, Mustapha; Panajotov, Krassimir; Mussot, Arnaud; Bendahmane, Abdelkrim; Szriftgiser, Pascal; Genty, Goery; Dudley, John; Kudlinski, Alexandre; Demircan, Ayhan; Morgner, Uwe; Amiraranashvili, Shalva; Bree, Carsten; Steinmeyer, Günter; Masoller, C.; Broderick, Neil G. R.; Runge, Antoine F. J.; Erkintalo, Miro; Residori, S.; Bortolozzo, U.; Arecchi, F. T.; Wabnitz, Stefan; Tiofack, C. G.; Coulibaly, S.; Taki, M.

    2016-06-01

    The pioneering paper ‘Optical rogue waves’ by Solli et al (2007 Nature 450 1054) started the new subfield in optics. This work launched a great deal of activity on this novel subject. As a result, the initial concept has expanded and has been enriched by new ideas. Various approaches have been suggested since then. A fresh look at the older results and new discoveries has been undertaken, stimulated by the concept of ‘optical rogue waves’. Presently, there may not by a unique view on how this new scientific term should be used and developed. There is nothing surprising when the opinion of the experts diverge in any new field of research. After all, rogue waves may appear for a multiplicity of reasons and not necessarily only in optical fibers and not only in the process of supercontinuum generation. We know by now that rogue waves may be generated by lasers, appear in wide aperture cavities, in plasmas and in a variety of other optical systems. Theorists, in turn, have suggested many other situations when rogue waves may be observed. The strict definition of a rogue wave is still an open question. For example, it has been suggested that it is defined as ‘an optical pulse whose amplitude or intensity is much higher than that of the surrounding pulses’. This definition (as suggested by a peer reviewer) is clear at the intuitive level and can be easily extended to the case of spatial beams although additional clarifications are still needed. An extended definition has been presented earlier by N Akhmediev and E Pelinovsky (2010 Eur. Phys. J. Spec. Top. 185 1-4). Discussions along these lines are always useful and all new approaches stimulate research and encourage discoveries of new phenomena. Despite the potentially existing disagreements, the scientific terms ‘optical rogue waves’ and ‘extreme events’ do exist. Therefore coordination of our efforts in either unifying the concept or in introducing alternative definitions must be continued. From

  3. Subsurface signatures and timing of extreme wave events along the ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The diagnostic event signatures include the extent and elevation of the deposits, as well as morphologic similarity ... Historical archives of the origin, timing, and impact of tsunamis, storms, and floods along the mar- gins of ... High-resolution GPR studies (by the IIT Madras group) of erosional signatures from the beach ridge.

  4. Catalogue of extreme wave events in Ireland: revised and updated for 14 680 BP to 2017

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Laura; Renzi, Emiliano; Dudley, John M.; Clancy, Colm; Dias, Frédéric

    2018-03-01

    This paper aims to extend and update the survey of extreme wave events in Ireland that was previously carried out by O'Brien et al. (2013). The original catalogue highlighted the frequency of such events dating back as far as the turn of the last ice age and as recent as 2012. Ireland's marine territory extends far beyond its coastline and is one of the largest seabed territories in Europe. It is therefore not surprising that extreme waves have continued to occur regularly since 2012, particularly considering the severity of weather during the winters of 2013-2014 and 2015-2016. In addition, a large number of storm surges have been identified since the publication of the original catalogue. This paper updates the O'Brien et al. (2013) catalogue to include events up to the end of 2017. Storm surges are included as a new category and events are categorised into long waves (tsunamis and storm surges) and short waves (storm and rogue waves). New results prior to 2012 are also included and some of the events previously documented are reclassified. Important questions regarding public safety, services and the influence of climate change are also highlighted. An interactive map has been created to allow the reader to navigate through events: https://drive.google.com/open?id=19cZ59pDHfDnXKYIziYAVWV6AfoE&usp=sharing" target="_blank">https://drive.google.com/open?id=19cZ59pDHfDnXKYIziYAVWV6AfoE&usp=sharing.

  5. Prediction of a thermodynamic wave train from the monsoon to the Arctic following extreme rainfall events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnamurti, T. N.; Kumar, Vinay

    2017-04-01

    This study addresses numerical prediction of atmospheric wave trains that provide a monsoonal link to the Arctic ice melt. The monsoonal link is one of several ways that heat is conveyed to the Arctic region. This study follows a detailed observational study on thermodynamic wave trains that are initiated by extreme rain events of the northern summer south Asian monsoon. These wave trains carry large values of heat content anomalies, heat transports and convergence of flux of heat. These features seem to be important candidates for the rapid melt scenario. This present study addresses numerical simulation of the extreme rains, over India and Pakistan, and the generation of thermodynamic wave trains, simulations of large heat content anomalies, heat transports along pathways and heat flux convergences, potential vorticity and the diabatic generation of potential vorticity. We compare model based simulation of many features such as precipitation, divergence and the divergent wind with those evaluated from the reanalysis fields. We have also examined the snow and ice cover data sets during and after these events. This modeling study supports our recent observational findings on the monsoonal link to the rapid Arctic ice melt of the Canadian Arctic. This numerical modeling suggests ways to interpret some recent episodes of rapid ice melts that may require a well-coordinated field experiment among atmosphere, ocean, ice and snow cover scientists. Such a well-coordinated study would sharpen our understanding of this one component of the ice melt, i.e. the monsoonal link, which appears to be fairly robust.

  6. Cold fronts in the Colombian Caribbean Sea and their relationship to extreme wave events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz-Royero, J. C.; Otero, L. J.; Restrepo, J. C.; Ruiz, J.; Cadena, M.

    2013-11-01

    Extreme ocean waves in the Caribbean Sea are commonly related to the effects of storms and hurricanes during the months of June through November. The collapse of 200 m of the Puerto Colombia pier in March 2009 revealed the effects of meteorological phenomena other than storms and hurricanes that may be influencing the extreme wave regime in the Colombian Caribbean. The marked seasonality of these atmospheric fronts was established by analyzing the meteorological-marine reports of the Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales of Colombia (IDEAM, based on its initials in Spanish) and the Centro de Investigación en Oceanografía y Meteorología of Colombia (CIOH, based on its initials in Spanish) during the last 16 yr. The highest number of cold fronts was observed during the months of January, February, and March, with 6 fronts occurring per year. An annual trend was observed and the highest number of fronts occurred in 2010 (20 in total); moreover, an annual strong relationship between the maximum average wave values and the cold fronts in the central zone of the Colombian Caribbean during the first three months of the year was established. In addition, the maximum values of the significant height produced by the passage of cold fronts during the last 16 yr were identified. Although the Colombian Caribbean has been affected by storms and hurricanes in the past, this research allows us to conclude that there is a strong relationship between cold fronts and the largest waves in the Colombian Caribbean during the last 16 yr, which have caused damage to coastal infrastructure. We verified that the passage of a cold front corresponded to the most significant extreme wave event of the last two decades in the Colombian Caribbean, which caused the structural collapse of the Puerto Colombia pier, located near the city of Barranquilla, between 5 and 10 March 2009. This information is invaluable when evaluating average and extreme wave regimes for the

  7. A Temporal Assessment of Barrier Island Vulnerability to Extreme Wave Events, Virginia Coast Reserve

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oster, D. J.; Moore, L. J.; Doran, K. J.; Stockdon, H. F.

    2010-12-01

    Barrier island vulnerability to storm-generated waves is directly related to interactions between shoreface morphology and surf-zone dynamics. During storms, the seaward-most dune often limits the landward extent of wave energy; however, if maximum wave run-up exceeds the elevation of the top of the dune, overwash or inundation may occur. The ‘Storm Impact Scale’ presented by Sallenger (2000) classifies barrier beach vulnerability to individual storm events based on the elevation of the frontal dune crest and toe relative to maximum wave run-up. Changes to the dune and beachface can occur over a range of time scales, altering local vulnerability to extreme waves from storms, even as a storm is occurring. As sea level continues to rise, barrier beaches will become increasingly vulnerable to overwash and inundation from a greater number of storms. Our objective is to assess temporal trends in barrier island vulnerability while also exploring island-chain-wide response and recovery from two notably different storm events (Nor’Ida and Hurricane Bonnie) along the undeveloped barrier islands of the Virginia Coast Reserve (VCR). We compare shoreline position and elevations of the frontal dune crest (DHIGH) and dune toe (DLOW) across four lidar data sets collected between 1998-2010. Observed significant wave height and period from the National Data Buoy Center and the Duck, NC Field Research Facility for the time period between 1985 and 2009 are classified to represent one-year, five-year, and ten-year storm events that serve as the basis for comparison of island vulnerability through time to a range of storm severity. Initial results reveal significant spatial and temporal variation in barrier island vulnerability to storms throughout the VCR. Despite the range of variability, all three beach features (i.e., shoreline position, DHIGH and DLOW), have moved landward indicating large-scale, widespread migration, or narrowing, of VCR barrier island landforms over the

  8. Boulder accumulations related to extreme wave events on the eastern coast of Malta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biolchi, Sara; Furlani, Stefano; Antonioli, Fabrizio; Baldassini, Niccoló; Causon Deguara, Joanna; Devoto, Stefano; Di Stefano, Agata; Evans, Julian; Gambin, Timothy; Gauci, Ritienne; Mastronuzzi, Giuseppe; Monaco, Carmelo; Scicchitano, Giovanni

    2016-03-01

    The accumulation of large boulders related to waves generated by either tsunamis or extreme storm events have been observed in different areas of the Mediterranean Sea. Along the eastern low-lying rocky coasts of Malta, five sites with large boulder deposits have been investigated, measured and mapped. These boulders have been detached and moved from the nearshore and the lowest parts of the coast by sea wave action. In the Sicily-Malta channel, heavy storms are common and originate from the NE and NW winds. Conversely, few tsunamis have been recorded in historical documents to have reached the Maltese archipelago. We present a multi-disciplinary study, which aims to define the characteristics of these boulder accumulations, in order to assess the coastal geo-hazard implications triggered by the sheer ability of extreme waves to detach and move large rocky blocks inland. The wave heights required to transport 77 coastal boulders were calculated using various hydrodynamic equations. Particular attention was given to the quantification of the input parameters required in the workings of these equations, such as size, density and distance from the coast. In addition, accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) 14C ages were determined from selected samples of marine organisms encrusted on some of the coastal boulders. The combination of the results obtained both by the hydrodynamic equations, which provided values comparable with those observed and measured during the storms, and radiocarbon dating suggests that the majority of the boulders have been detached and moved by intense storm waves. These boulders testify to the existence of a real hazard for the coasts of Malta, i.e. that of very high storm waves, which, during exceptional storms, are able to detach large blocks of volumes exceeding 10 m3 from the coastal edge and the nearshore bottom, and also to transport them inland. Nevertheless, the occurrence of one or more tsunami events cannot be ruled out, since

  9. Experimental modelling of wave amplification over irregular bathymetry for investigations of boulder transport by extreme wave events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Boyle, Louise; Whittaker, Trevor; Cox, Ronadh; Elsäßer, Björn

    2017-04-01

    nearshore multibeam sonar survey. Water surface elevation is recorded using twin-wire resistance type wave probes along a shore-normal bathymetry transect as the waves shoal. Variations in significant wave height and maximum elevation are presented for both regular and irregular bathymetry and for a number of typical North Atlantic sea states. These results are significant for calibration of numerical wave propagation models over irregular bathymetry and for those seeking to understand the magnitude of nearshore extreme wave events. References [1] Met Éireann, 2014, Winter 2013/2014: Monthly Weather Bulletin, December issue, p. 1-5. http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/winterstorms13_14.pdf. [2] Cox, R. et. al., 2016, Movement of boulders and megagravel by storm waves Vol. 18, EGU2016-10535, 2016 EGU General Assembly 2016

  10. A long record of extreme wave events in coastal Lake Hamana, Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boes, Evelien; Yokoyama, Yusuke; Schmidt, Sabine; Riedesel, Svenja; Fujiwara, Osamu; Nakamura, Atsunori; Garrett, Ed; Heyvaert, Vanessa; Brückner, Helmut; De Batist, Marc

    2017-04-01

    Coastal Lake Hamana is located near the convergent tectonic boundary of the Nankai-Suruga Trough, along which the Philippine Sea slab is subducted underneath the Eurasian Plate, giving rise to repeated tsunamigenic megathrust earthquakes (Mw ≥ 8). A good understanding of the earthquake- and tsunami-triggering mechanisms is crucial in order to better estimate the complexity of seismic risks. Thanks to its accommodation space, Lake Hamana may represent a good archive for past events, such as tsunamis and tropical storms (typhoons), also referred to as "extreme wave" events. Characteristic event layers, consisting of sediment entrained by these extreme waves and their backwash, are witnesses of past marine incursions. By applying a broad range of surveying methods (reflection-seismic profiling, gravity coring, piston coring), sedimentological analyses (CT-scanning, XRF-scanning, multi-sensor core logging, grain size, microfossils etc.) and dating techniques (210Pb/137Cs, 14C, OSL, tephrochronology), we attempt to trace extreme wave event deposits in a multiproxy approach. Seismic imagery shows a vertical stacking of stronger reflectors, interpreted to be coarser-grained sheets deposited by highly energetic waves. Systematic sampling of lake bottom sediments along a transect from ocean-proximal to ocean-distal sites enables us to evaluate vertical and lateral changes in stratigraphy. Ocean-proximal, we observe a sequence of eight sandy units separated by silty background sediments, up to a depth of 8 m into the lake bottom. These sand layers quickly thin out and become finer-grained land-inward. Seismic-to-core correlations show a good fit between the occurrence of strong reflectors and sandy deposits, hence confirming presumptions based on acoustic imagery alone. Sand-rich intervals typically display a higher magnetic susceptibility, density and stronger X-ray attenuation. However, based on textural and structural differences, we can make the distinction between

  11. The North Atlantic Oscillation Influence on the Wave Regime in Portugal: An Extreme Wave Event Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-03-01

    picture at 22/00Z.............50 x Figure 24. Case 5 – wave parameters........................51 Figure 25. Evolution of energy density (arrow...equation or energy balance equation: . in nl ds F v F S S S S t ∂ + ∇ = ≡ + + ∂ r (1) where ( , ; , )F f x tθ r is the two dimensional...collected from an offshore directional Seawatch buoy, in the vicinity of Cape Silleiro, Rayo Silleiro 19 (“E1”), (Figure 3), was provided by the

  12. Control of extreme events in the bubbling onset of wave turbulence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galuzio, P P; Viana, R L; Lopes, S R

    2014-04-01

    We show the existence of an intermittent transition from temporal chaos to turbulence in a spatially extended dynamical system, namely, the forced and damped one-dimensional nonlinear Schrödinger equation. For some values of the forcing parameter, the system dynamics intermittently switches between ordered states and turbulent states, which may be seen as extreme events in some contexts. In a Fourier phase space, the intermittency takes place due to the loss of transversal stability of unstable periodic orbits embedded in a low-dimensional subspace. We mapped these transversely unstable regions and perturbed the system in order to significantly reduce the occurrence of extreme events of turbulence.

  13. Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, Michael E; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Kornhuber, Kai; Steinman, Byron A; Miller, Sonya K; Coumou, Dim

    2017-03-27

    Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been shown to be associated with the presence of high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves within a particular wavelength range (zonal wavenumber 6-8). The underlying mechanistic relationship involves the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) of synoptic-scale waves with that wavenumber range becoming trapped within an effective mid-latitude atmospheric waveguide. Recent work suggests an increase in recent decades in the occurrence of QRA-favorable conditions and associated extreme weather, possibly linked to amplified Arctic warming and thus a climate change influence. Here, we isolate a specific fingerprint in the zonal mean surface temperature profile that is associated with QRA-favorable conditions. State-of-the-art ("CMIP5") historical climate model simulations subject to anthropogenic forcing display an increase in the projection of this fingerprint that is mirrored in multiple observational surface temperature datasets. Both the models and observations suggest this signal has only recently emerged from the background noise of natural variability.

  14. Management adaptation of invertebrate fisheries to an extreme marine heat wave event at a global warming hot spot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caputi, Nick; Kangas, Mervi; Denham, Ainslie; Feng, Ming; Pearce, Alan; Hetzel, Yasha; Chandrapavan, Arani

    2016-06-01

    An extreme marine heat wave which affected 2000 km of the midwest coast of Australia occurred in the 2010/11 austral summer, with sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies of 2-5°C above normal climatology. The heat wave was influenced by a strong Leeuwin Current during an extreme La Niña event at a global warming hot spot in the Indian Ocean. This event had a significant effect on the marine ecosystem with changes to seagrass/algae and coral habitats, as well as fish kills and southern extension of the range of some tropical species. The effect has been exacerbated by above-average SST in the following two summers, 2011/12 and 2012/13. This study examined the major impact the event had on invertebrate fisheries and the management adaption applied. A 99% mortality of Roei abalone ( Haliotis roei ) and major reductions in recruitment of scallops ( Amusium balloti ), king ( Penaeus latisulcatus ) and tiger ( P. esculentus ) prawns, and blue swimmer crabs were detected with management adapting with effort reductions or spatial/temporal closures to protect the spawning stock and restocking being evaluated. This study illustrates that fisheries management under extreme temperature events requires an early identification of temperature hot spots, early detection of abundance changes (preferably using pre-recruit surveys), and flexible harvest strategies which allow a quick response to minimize the effect of heavy fishing on poor recruitment to enable protection of the spawning stock. This has required researchers, managers, and industry to adapt to fish stocks affected by an extreme environmental event that may become more frequent due to climate change.

  15. Evolution caused by extreme events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Peter R; Grant, B Rosemary; Huey, Raymond B; Johnson, Marc T J; Knoll, Andrew H; Schmitt, Johanna

    2017-06-19

    Extreme events can be a major driver of evolutionary change over geological and contemporary timescales. Outstanding examples are evolutionary diversification following mass extinctions caused by extreme volcanism or asteroid impact. The evolution of organisms in contemporary time is typically viewed as a gradual and incremental process that results from genetic change, environmental perturbation or both. However, contemporary environments occasionally experience strong perturbations such as heat waves, floods, hurricanes, droughts and pest outbreaks. These extreme events set up strong selection pressures on organisms, and are small-scale analogues of the dramatic changes documented in the fossil record. Because extreme events are rare, almost by definition, they are difficult to study. So far most attention has been given to their ecological rather than to their evolutionary consequences. We review several case studies of contemporary evolution in response to two types of extreme environmental perturbations, episodic (pulse) or prolonged (press). Evolution is most likely to occur when extreme events alter community composition. We encourage investigators to be prepared for evolutionary change in response to rare events during long-term field studies.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  16. Analysis of extreme events

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Khuluse, S

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available ) determination of the distribution of the damage and (iii) preparation of products that enable prediction of future risk events. The methodology provided by extreme value theory can also be a powerful tool in risk analysis...

  17. Characterization and effects of cold fronts in the Colombian Caribbean Coast and their relationship to extreme wave events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz-Royero, J. C.; Otero, L. J.; Restrepo, J. C.; Ruiz, J.; Cadena, M.

    2013-07-01

    Extreme ocean waves in the Caribbean Sea are commonly related to the effects of storms and hurricanes during the months of June through November. The collapse of 200 m of the Puerto Colombia pier in March 2009 revealed the effects of meteorological phenomena other than storms and hurricanes that may be influencing the extreme wave regime in the Colombian Caribbean. The marked seasonality of these atmospheric fronts was established by analyzing the meteorological-marine reports of Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales of Colombia (IDEAM, based on its initials in Spanish) and Centro de Investigación en Oceanografía y Meteorología of Colombia (CIOH, based on its initials in Spanish). The highest occurrences were observed during the months of January, February, and March, with 6 fronts occurring per year. An annual trend was not observed, although the highest number of fronts occurred in 2010 (20 in total). An annual strong relationship between the maximum average wave values and the cold fronts, in the central zone of the Colombian Caribbean during the first three months of the year was established. In addition, the maximum values of the significant height produced by the passage of cold fronts during the last 16 yr were identified. Although the Colombian Caribbean has been affected by storms and hurricanes in the past, this research allows us to conclude that, there is a strong relationship between cold fronts and the largest waves in the Colombian Caribbean during the last 16 yr, which have caused damage to coastal infrastructure. We verified that the passage of a cold front corresponded to the most significant extreme wave event of the last two decades in the Colombian Caribbean, which caused the structural collapse of the Puerto Colombia pier, located near the city of Barranquilla, between 5 and 10 March 2009. This information is invaluable when evaluating average and extreme wave regimes for the purpose of informing the design of

  18. The Spanish tourist sector facing extreme climate events: a case study of domestic tourism in the heat wave of 2003

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-Martín, M. Belén; Armesto-López, Xosé A.; Martínez-Ibarra, Emilio

    2014-07-01

    This research explores, by means of a questionnaire-based survey, public knowledge and perception as well as the behaviour of young Spanish tourists before, during and after the summer holiday period affected by an episode of extreme heat in 2003. The survey was administered between November and December 2004. The extraordinary heat wave of the summer of 2003 can be seen as an example of a normal episode in terms of the predicted intensity and duration of European summers towards the end of the twenty-first century. It can therefore be used as the laboratory setting for this study. In this context, the use of the climate analogue approach allows us to obtain novel perspectives regarding the future impact that this type of event could have on tourist demand, based on a real experience. Likewise, such an approach allows the strategies of adaptation implemented by the different elements in the tourist system in order to cope with the atmospheric episode to be evaluated. Such strategies could prove useful in reducing vulnerability when faced with similar episodes in the future. The main results indicate that Spanish tourists (young segment market) are flexible in adapting to episodes of extremely high temperatures. Their personal perception of the phenomenon, their behaviour and the adaptation measures implemented to a greater or lesser extent before that time, reduce the vulnerability of the sector when faced with this type of event, at least from the point of view of this young segment of the internal national market. In Spain, the episode of extreme heat of 2003 has led to the implementation or improvement of some adaptive measures after the event, especially in the fields of management, policy and education.

  19. A joint analysis of wave and surge conditions for past and present extrem events in the south-western Baltic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groll, Nikolaus; Gaslikova, Lidia

    2017-04-01

    Extreme marine events in the south-western Baltic Sea like the historic storm in 1872 are rare, but have large impacts on human safety and coastal infrastructure. The aforementioned extreme storm event of 1872 and has cost over 250 human lives, left severely damaged infrastructure and caused land loss due to coastal erosion. Recent extreme events also result in drastic impacts to coastal regions. Using results from numerical wave and hydrodynamic model simulations we will present a joint analysis of wave and water level conditions for selected extreme events. For the historic event the numerical models have been forced by reconstructed wind and pressure fields from pressure readings. Simulated atmospheric conditions from reanalysis have been used for the more recent events. The height of the water level due to the possible previous inflow of water masses in the Baltic Sea basin, as well as possible seiches and swell effects have been incorporated in the simulations. We will discuss similarities and differences between the historic and the more recent marine hazard events.

  20. Patterns of megaclasts along the coast of Eastern Samar (Philippines) - Implications for Holocene extreme-wave events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, Max; Boesl, Fabian; Narod Eco, Rodrigo; Galang, Jam Albert; Gonzalo, Lia Anne; Llanes, Francesca; Quix, Eva; Schroeder-Ritzrau, Andrea; Frank, Norbert; Mahar Lagmay, Alfredo; Brückner, Helmut

    2017-04-01

    The Eastern Visayas region in the Philippines is hit by some of the most violent tropical cyclones on Earth on a regular basis, exemplified by Typhoon Haiyan, 7-9 November 2013, and a number of other category 4 and 5 events during the last decades. Moreover, strong earthquakes along the Philippine Trench have triggered several tsunamis in the historical past. Coastal flooding through extreme waves associated with these events represents a significant hazard for communities along the eastern coasts of Samar. However, not much is known about frequency-magnitude relationships of coastal flooding events and the maximum magnitude on centennial and millennial scales, which can be derived from geological traces and which have to be considered in a coastal hazard management process. We investigated a large boulder field in Eastern Samar distributed over an elevated, intertidal palaeo-reef platform in order to understand mechanisms of boulder transport and to derive implications for the maximum spatial extent, height, and velocity of coastal flooding. In the field, we recorded location, shape, morphological features as well as length and orientation of the main axes of more than 250 boulders, the a-axes of which were between 1.5 and 10.7 m. Eight samples were taken for Th/U dating of post-depositional, secondary calcite flowstones and pre-depostional coral, and four samples were taken for radiocarbon dating of pre-depositional, sessil organisms attached to the boulders. We 3D-mapped the most important parts of the boulder field using an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and created structure-from-motion (SfM) models of the most prominent boulders, which will be used for inverse modelling of transport flows. Samples of the most common coralline lithofacies were taken for density estimations. We used interviews with elders of the local community as well as multi-temporal analysis of satellite images to reconstruct recent flooding patterns and boulder movement during recent events

  1. Extreme Energy Events Monitoring report

    CERN Document Server

    Baimukhamedova, Nigina

    2015-01-01

    Following paper reflects the progress I made on Summer Student Program within Extreme Energy Events Monitor project I was working on. During 8 week period I managed to build a simple detector system that is capable of triggering events similar to explosions (sudden change in sound levels) and measuring approximate location of the event. Source codes are available upon request and settings described further.

  2. Book review: Extreme ocean waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geist, Eric L.

    2011-01-01

    ‘‘Extreme Ocean Waves’’ is a collection of ten papers edited by Efim Pelinovsky and Christian Kharif that followed the April 2007 meeting of the General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union. A note on terminology: extreme waves in this volume broadly encompass different types of waves, includ- ing deep-water and shallow-water rogue waves (alternatively termed freak waves), storm surges from cyclones, and internal waves. Other types of waves such as tsunamis or rissaga (meteotsunamis) are not discussed in this volume. It is generally implied that ‘‘extreme’’ has a statistical connotation relative to the average or significant wave height specific to each type of wave. Throughout the book, in fact, the reader will find a combination of theoretical and statistical/ empirical treatment necessary for the complete examination of this subject. In the introduction, the editors underscore the importance of studying extreme waves, documenting several dramatic instances of damaging extreme waves that occurred in 2007. 

  3. Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas, Katherine [National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC (United States)

    2016-03-31

    A report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine concludes it is now possible to estimate the influence of climate change on some types of extreme events. The science of extreme event attribution has advanced rapidly in recent years, giving new insight to the ways that human-caused climate change can influence the magnitude or frequency of some extreme weather events. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities. Confidence is strongest in attributing types of extreme events that are influenced by climate change through a well-understood physical mechanism, such as, the more frequent heat waves that are closely connected to human-caused global temperature increases, the report finds. Confidence is lower for other types of events, such as hurricanes, whose relationship to climate change is more complex and less understood at present. For any extreme event, the results of attribution studies hinge on how questions about the event's causes are posed, and on the data, modeling approaches, and statistical tools chosen for the analysis.

  4. Overview of the biology of extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutschick, V. P.; Bassirirad, H.

    2008-12-01

    Extreme events have, variously, meteorological origins as in heat waves or precipitation extremes, or biological origins as in pest and disease eruptions (or tectonic, earth-orbital, or impact-body origins). Despite growing recognition that these events are changing in frequency and intensity, a universal model of ecological responses to these events is slow to emerge. Extreme events, negative and positive, contrast with normal events in terms of their effects on the physiology, ecology, and evolution of organisms, hence also on water, carbon, and nutrient cycles. They structure biogeographic ranges and biomes, almost surely more than mean values often used to define biogeography. They are challenging to study for obvious reasons of field-readiness but also because they are defined by sequences of driving variables such as temperature, not point events. As sequences, their statistics (return times, for example) are challenging to develop, as also from the involvement of multiple environmental variables. These statistics are not captured well by climate models. They are expected to change with climate and land-use change but our predictive capacity is currently limited. A number of tools for description and analysis of extreme events are available, if not widely applied to date. Extremes for organisms are defined by their fitness effects on those organisms, and are specific to genotypes, making them major agents of natural selection. There is evidence that effects of extreme events may be concentrated in an extended recovery phase. We review selected events covering ranges of time and magnitude, from Snowball Earth to leaf functional loss in weather events. A number of events, such as the 2003 European heat wave, evidence effects on water and carbon cycles over large regions. Rising CO2 is the recent extreme of note, for its climatic effects and consequences for growing seasons, transpiration, etc., but also directly in its action as a substrate of photosynthesis

  5. Projected sea level rise and changes in extreme storm surge and wave events during the 21st century in the region of Singapore

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cannaby, Heather; Palmer, Matthew D.; Howard, Tom; Bricheno, Lucy; Calvert, Daley; Krijnen, Justin; Wood, Richard; Tinker, Jonathan; Bunney, Chris; Harle, James; Saulter, Andrew; O'Neill, Clare; Bellingham, Clare; Lowe, Jason

    2016-05-01

    Singapore is an island state with considerable population, industries, commerce and transport located in coastal areas at elevations less than 2 m making it vulnerable to sea level rise. Mitigation against future inundation events requires a quantitative assessment of risk. To address this need, regional projections of changes in (i) long-term mean sea level and (ii) the frequency of extreme storm surge and wave events have been combined to explore potential changes to coastal flood risk over the 21st century. Local changes in time-mean sea level were evaluated using the process-based climate model data and methods presented in the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5). Regional surge and wave solutions extending from 1980 to 2100 were generated using ˜ 12 km resolution surge (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean - NEMO) and wave (WaveWatchIII) models. Ocean simulations were forced by output from a selection of four downscaled ( ˜ 12 km resolution) atmospheric models, forced at the lateral boundaries by global climate model simulations generated for the IPCC AR5. Long-term trends in skew surge and significant wave height were then assessed using a generalised extreme value model, fit to the largest modelled events each year. An additional atmospheric solution downscaled from the ERA-Interim global reanalysis was used to force historical ocean model simulations extending from 1980 to 2010, enabling a quantitative assessment of model skill. Simulated historical sea-surface height and significant wave height time series were compared to tide gauge data and satellite altimetry data, respectively. Central estimates of the long-term mean sea level rise at Singapore by 2100 were projected to be 0.52 m (0.74 m) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)4.5 (8.5) scenarios. Trends in surge and significant wave height 2-year return levels were found to be statistically insignificant and/or physically

  6. Nutrition security under extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, A.

    2017-12-01

    Nutrition security under extreme events. Zero hunger being one of the Sustainable Development Goal from the United Nations, food security has become a trending research topic. However extreme events impact on global food security is not yet 100% understood and there is a lack of comprehension of the underlying mechanisms of global food trade and nutrition security to improve countries resilience to extreme events. In a globalized world, food is still a highly regulated commodity and a strategic resource. A drought happening in a net food-exporter will have little to no effect on its own population but the repercussion on net food-importers can be extreme. In this project, we propose a methodology to describe and quantify the impact of a local drought to human health at a global scale. For this purpose, nutrition supply and global trade data from FAOSTAT have been used with domestic food production from national agencies and FAOSTAT, global precipitation from the Climate Research Unit and health data from the World Health Organization. A modified Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) has been developed to measure the level of resilience of one country to a drought happening in another country. This index describes how a country is dependent of importation and how diverse are its importation. Losses of production and exportation due to extreme events have been calculated using yield data and a simple food balance at country scale. Results show that countries the most affected by global droughts are the one with the highest dependency to one exporting country. Changes induced by droughts also disturbed their domestic proteins, fat and calories supply resulting most of the time in a higher intake of calories or fat over proteins.

  7. Attribution of climate extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trenberth, Kevin E.; Fasullo, John T.; Shepherd, Theodore G.

    2015-08-01

    There is a tremendous desire to attribute causes to weather and climate events that is often challenging from a physical standpoint. Headlines attributing an event solely to either human-induced climate change or natural variability can be misleading when both are invariably in play. The conventional attribution framework struggles with dynamically driven extremes because of the small signal-to-noise ratios and often uncertain nature of the forced changes. Here, we suggest that a different framing is desirable, which asks why such extremes unfold the way they do. Specifically, we suggest that it is more useful to regard the extreme circulation regime or weather event as being largely unaffected by climate change, and question whether known changes in the climate system's thermodynamic state affected the impact of the particular event. Some examples briefly illustrated include 'snowmaggedon' in February 2010, superstorm Sandy in October 2012 and supertyphoon Haiyan in November 2013, and, in more detail, the Boulder floods of September 2013, all of which were influenced by high sea surface temperatures that had a discernible human component.

  8. On causality of extreme events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Massimiliano Zanin

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Multiple metrics have been developed to detect causality relations between data describing the elements constituting complex systems, all of them considering their evolution through time. Here we propose a metric able to detect causality within static data sets, by analysing how extreme events in one element correspond to the appearance of extreme events in a second one. The metric is able to detect non-linear causalities; to analyse both cross-sectional and longitudinal data sets; and to discriminate between real causalities and correlations caused by confounding factors. We validate the metric through synthetic data, dynamical and chaotic systems, and data representing the human brain activity in a cognitive task. We further show how the proposed metric is able to outperform classical causality metrics, provided non-linear relationships are present and large enough data sets are available.

  9. Spatially explicit modelling of extreme weather and climate events ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The reality of climate change continues to influence the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, floods, and landslides. The impacts of the cumulative interplay of these extreme weather and climate events variation continue to perturb governments causing a scramble into formation ...

  10. On the Extreme Wave Height Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Burcharth, H. F.; Liu, Zhou

    1994-01-01

    The determination of the design wave height is usually based on the statistical analysis of long-term extreme wave height measurements. After an introduction to the procedure of the extreme wave height analysis, the paper presents new development concerning various aspects of the extreme wave...... height analysis. Finally, the paper gives a practical example based on a data set of the hindcasted wave heights for a deep water location in the Mediterranean Sea....

  11. Extreme Events in Nature and Society

    CERN Document Server

    Albeverio, Sergio; Kantz, Holger

    2006-01-01

    Significant, and usually unwelcome, surprises, such as floods, financial crisis, epileptic seizures, or material rupture, are the topics of Extreme Events in Nature and Society. The book, authored by foremost experts in these fields, reveals unifying and distinguishing features of extreme events, including problems of understanding and modelling their origin, spatial and temporal extension, and potential impact. The chapters converge towards the difficult problem of anticipation: forecasting the event and proposing measures to moderate or prevent it. Extreme Events in Nature and Society will interest not only specialists, but also the general reader eager to learn how the multifaceted field of extreme events can be viewed as a coherent whole.

  12. An integrated wave modelling framework for extreme and rare events for climate change in coastal areas – the case of Rethymno, Crete

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vasiliki K. Tsoukala

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Coastal floods are regarded as among the most dangerous and harmful of all natural disasters affecting urban areas adjacent to the shorelines. Rapid urbanization combined with climate change and poor governance often results in significant increase of flood risk, especially for coastal communities. Wave overtopping and wave run-up are the key mechanisms for monitoring the results of coastal flooding and as such, significant efforts are currently focusing on their predicting. In this paper, an integrated methodology is proposed, accounting for wave overtopping and wave run-up under extreme wave scenarios caused by storm surges. By taking advantage of past and future climatic projections of wind data, a downscaling approach is proposed, utilizing a number of appropriate numerical models than can simulate the wave propagation from offshore up to the swash zone. The coastal zone of Rethymno in Greece is selected as a case study area and simulations of wave characteristics with the model SWAN for the period 1960–2100 in the offshore region are presented. These data are given as boundary conditions to further numerical models (MIKE21 PMS and HD in order to investigate the spatial evolution of the wave and the hydrodynamic field in intermediate and shallow waters. Finally, the calculated wave height serves as input to empirical formulas and time dependent wave propagation models (MIKE21 BW to estimate the wave run-up and wave overtopping (EurOtop. It is suggested that the proposed procedure is generic enough to be applicable to any similar region.

  13. Controlling extreme events on complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yu-Zhong; Huang, Zi-Gang; Lai, Ying-Cheng

    2014-08-01

    Extreme events, a type of collective behavior in complex networked dynamical systems, often can have catastrophic consequences. To develop effective strategies to control extreme events is of fundamental importance and practical interest. Utilizing transportation dynamics on complex networks as a prototypical setting, we find that making the network ``mobile'' can effectively suppress extreme events. A striking, resonance-like phenomenon is uncovered, where an optimal degree of mobility exists for which the probability of extreme events is minimized. We derive an analytic theory to understand the mechanism of control at a detailed and quantitative level, and validate the theory numerically. Implications of our finding to current areas such as cybersecurity are discussed.

  14. Extreme weather events and infectious disease outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMichael, Anthony J

    2015-01-01

    Human-driven climatic changes will fundamentally influence patterns of human health, including infectious disease clusters and epidemics following extreme weather events. Extreme weather events are projected to increase further with the advance of human-driven climate change. Both recent and historical experiences indicate that infectious disease outbreaks very often follow extreme weather events, as microbes, vectors and reservoir animal hosts exploit the disrupted social and environmental conditions of extreme weather events. This review article examines infectious disease risks associated with extreme weather events; it draws on recent experiences including Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the 2010 Pakistan mega-floods, and historical examples from previous centuries of epidemics and 'pestilence' associated with extreme weather disasters and climatic changes. A fuller understanding of climatic change, the precursors and triggers of extreme weather events and health consequences is needed in order to anticipate and respond to the infectious disease risks associated with human-driven climate change. Post-event risks to human health can be constrained, nonetheless, by reducing background rates of persistent infection, preparatory action such as coordinated disease surveillance and vaccination coverage, and strengthened disaster response. In the face of changing climate and weather conditions, it is critically important to think in ecological terms about the determinants of health, disease and death in human populations.

  15. Extreme waves at Filyos, southern Black Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Bilyay

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available A wave measurement project was carried out for a new port planned in Filyos, in the Western Black Sea region of Turkey. The measurement at a depth of 12.5 m lasted for a period of two years and 7949 records were obtained. During the analysis, it was noticed that there were 209 records in which H/Hs ratio was higher than 2.0. These higher waves in a record are called extreme waves in this study. Although the purpose of wave measurement is not to investigate extreme waves, it is believed that studying these unexpected waves could be interesting. Therefore, detailed statistical and spectral analyses on the extreme waves were done for the records. The analyses results show that the distribution of surface profiles of the records containing extreme waves deviates from Gaussian distribution with the negative skewness changing between –0.01 and –0.4 and with the high kurtosis in the range of 3.1–4.2. Although the probability of occurrence of the extreme waves is over-predicted by the Rayleigh distribution, a higher ratio of Hsrms indicates that the wave height distribution can be represented by Rayleigh. The average value of the slope of the frequency spectrum at the high frequency range is proportional to f–9 which is much steeper than the typical wind-wave frequency power law, f–4, –5. The directional spreading is measured with the parameter Smax and it is in the range of 5–70 for the extreme wave records. The wave and current interaction was also investigated and it was found that in most cases, extreme waves occur when the wave and the current are almost aligned. Furthermore, it is observed that extreme waves appear within a group of high waves.

  16. SMOS data and extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerr, Yann; Wigneron, Jean-Pierre; Ferrazzoli, Paolo; Mahmoodi, Ali; Al-Yaari, Amen; Parrens, Marie; Bitar, Ahmad Al; Rodriguez-Fernandez, Nemesio; Bircher, Simone; Molero-rodenas, Beatriz; Drusch, Matthias; Mecklenburg, Susanne

    2017-04-01

    The SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) satellite was successfully launched in November 2009. This ESA led mission for Earth Observation is dedicated to provide soil moisture over continental surface (with an accuracy goal of 0.04 m3/m3), vegetation water content over land, and ocean salinity. These geophysical features are important as they control the energy balance between the surface and the atmosphere. Their knowledge at a global scale is of interest for climatic and weather researches, and in particular in improving model forecasts. The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity mission has now been collecting data for over 7 years. The whole data set has been reprocessed (Version 620 for levels 1 and 2 and version 3 for level 3 CATDS) while operational near real time soil moisture data is now available and assimilation of SMOS data in NWP has proved successful. After 7 years it seems important to start using data for having a look at anomalies and see how they can relate to large scale events. We have also produced a 15 year soil moisture data set by merging SMOS and AMSR using a neural network approach. The purpose of this communication is to present the mission results after more than seven years in orbit in a climatic trend perspective, as through such a period anomalies can be detected. Thereby we benefit from consistent datasets provided through the latest reprocessing using most recent algorithm enhancements. Using the above mentioned products it is possible to follow large events such as the evolution of the droughts in North America, or water fraction evolution over the Amazonian basin. In this occasion we will focus on the analysis of SMOS and ancillary products anomalies to reveal two climatic trends, the temporal evolution of water storage over the Indian continent in relation to rainfall anomalies, and the global impact of El Nino types of events on the general water storage distribution. This presentation shows in detail the use of long term data sets

  17. Extreme events monitoring from space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerr, Yann; Bitar, Ahmad Al; Mahmoodi, Ali; Richaume, Philippe; Al-Yaari, Amen; Wigneron, Jean-Pierre

    2016-04-01

    The SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) satellite was successfully launched in November 2009. This ESA led mission for Earth Observation is dedicated to provide soil moisture over continental surface (with an accuracy goal of 0.04 m3/m3), vegetation water content over land, and ocean salinity. These geophysical features are important as they control the energy balance between the surface and the atmosphere. Their knowledge at a global scale is of interest for climatic and weather researches, and in particular in improving model forecasts. The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity mission has now been collecting data for 6 years. The whole data set has just been reprocessed (Version 620 for levels 1 and 2 and version 3 for level 3 CATDS). After 6 years it seems important to start using data for having a look at anomalies and see how they can relate to large scale events The purpose of this communication is to present the mission results after more than six years in orbit in a climatic trend perspective, as through such a period anomalies can be detected. Thereby we benefit from consistent datasets provided through the latest reprocessing using most recent algorithm enhancements. Using the above mentioned products it is possible to follow large events such as the evolution of the droughts in North America, or water fraction evolution over the Amazonian basin. In this occasion we will focus on the analysis of SMOS and ancillary products anomalies to reveal two climatic trends, the temporal evolution of water storage over the Indian continent in relation to rainfall anomalies, and the global impact of El Nino types of events on the general water storage distribution. This presentation shows in detail the use of long term data sets of L-band microwave radiometry in two specific cases, namely droughts and water budget over a large basin. Several other analyses are under way currently. Obviously, vegetation water content, but also dielectric constant, are carrying a wealth

  18. Probabilistic analysis of extreme wind events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chaviaropoulos, P.K. [Center for Renewable Energy Sources (CRES), Pikermi Attikis (Greece)

    1997-12-31

    A vital task in wind engineering and meterology is to understand, measure, analyse and forecast extreme wind conditions, due to their significant effects on human activities and installations like buildings, bridges or wind turbines. The latest version of the IEC standard (1996) pays particular attention to the extreme wind events that have to be taken into account when designing or certifying a wind generator. Actually, the extreme wind events within a 50 year period are those which determine the ``static`` design of most of the wind turbine components. The extremes which are important for the safety of wind generators are those associated with the so-called ``survival wind speed``, the extreme operating gusts and the extreme wind direction changes. A probabilistic approach for the analysis of these events is proposed in this paper. Emphasis is put on establishing the relation between extreme values and physically meaningful ``site calibration`` parameters, like probability distribution of the annual wind speed, turbulence intensity and power spectra properties. (Author)

  19. Climate change impacts on extreme events in the United States: an uncertainty analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves, droughts and severe precipitation events, have substantial impacts on ecosystems and the economy. However, future climate simulations display large uncertainty in mean changes. As a result, the uncertainty in future changes ...

  20. Gravitational shock waves and extreme magnetomaterial shock waves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lichnerowicz, Andre.

    1975-01-01

    Within an astrophysical context corresponding to high densities, a self-gravitating model is studied, which is the set of an extreme material medium of infinite conductivity and of a magnetic field. Corresponding shock waves generate necessarily, in general, gravitational shock waves [fr

  1. Climate change and extreme events in weather

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshKumar, M.R.

    reported that the climate based extreme weather event is increasing throughout the world. One of the major chal- lenges before the scientists is to determine whether the ob- served change in extreme weather events exceeds the vari- ability expected through... was recorded in July 1943 on the hills of Mewar and Merwara. Unprecedent flood in Ajmer and Merwara devasted 50 villages and took a toll of 5000 lives (De et al., 2005). Severe Floods occurred to Godavari and Tungabhadra rivers in the last week of August...

  2. A Fourier analysis of extreme events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mikosch, Thomas Valentin; Zhao, Yuwei

    2014-01-01

    The extremogram is an asymptotic correlogram for extreme events constructed from a regularly varying stationary sequence. In this paper, we define a frequency domain analog of the correlogram: a periodogram generated from a suitable sequence of indicator functions of rare events. We derive basic ...... properties of the periodogram such as the asymptotic independence at the Fourier frequencies and use this property to show that weighted versions of the periodogram are consistent estimators of a spectral density derived from the extremogram....

  3. The National Extreme Events Data and Research Center (NEED)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulledge, J.; Kaiser, D. P.; Wilbanks, T. J.; Boden, T.; Devarakonda, R.

    2014-12-01

    The Climate Change Science Institute at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is establishing the National Extreme Events Data and Research Center (NEED), with the goal of transforming how the United States studies and prepares for extreme weather events in the context of a changing climate. NEED will encourage the myriad, distributed extreme events research communities to move toward the adoption of common practices and will develop a new database compiling global historical data on weather- and climate-related extreme events (e.g., heat waves, droughts, hurricanes, etc.) and related information about impacts, costs, recovery, and available research. Currently, extreme event information is not easy to access and is largely incompatible and inconsistent across web sites. NEED's database development will take into account differences in time frames, spatial scales, treatments of uncertainty, and other parameters and variables, and leverage informatics tools developed at ORNL (i.e., the Metadata Editor [1] and Mercury [2]) to generate standardized, robust documentation for each database along with a web-searchable catalog. In addition, NEED will facilitate convergence on commonly accepted definitions and standards for extreme events data and will enable integrated analyses of coupled threats, such as hurricanes/sea-level rise/flooding and droughts/wildfires. Our goal and vision is that NEED will become the premiere integrated resource for the general study of extreme events. References: [1] Devarakonda, Ranjeet, et al. "OME: Tool for generating and managing metadata to handle BigData." Big Data (Big Data), 2014 IEEE International Conference on. IEEE, 2014. [2] Devarakonda, Ranjeet, et al. "Mercury: reusable metadata management, data discovery and access system." Earth Science Informatics 3.1-2 (2010): 87-94.

  4. On Extreme Events in Banking and Finance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.R.C. Oordt (Maarten)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractUncertainty and new developments spread at an astonishing speed across the globe in financial markets. The recent extreme events in banking and finance triggered many new questions among academics, policy makers and the general public. Is global diversification at financial

  5. Variability of extreme wet events over Malawi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Libanda Brigadier

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Adverse effects of extreme wet events are well documented by several studies around the world. These effects are exacerbated in developing countries like Malawi that have insufficient risk reduction strategies and capacity to cope with extreme wet weather. Ardent monitoring of the variability of extreme wet events over Malawi is therefore imperative. The use of the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI has been recommended by many studies as an effective way of quantifying extreme wet events. In this study, ETCCDI indices were used to examine the number of heavy, very heavy, and extremely heavy rainfall days; daily and five-day maximum rainfall; very wet and extremely wet days; annual wet days and simple daily intensity. The Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT was employed at 5% significance level before any statistical test was done. Trend analysis was done using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall statistical test. All stations were found to be homogeneous apart from Mimosa. Trend results show high temporal and spatial variability with the only significant results being: increase in daily maximum rainfall (Rx1day over Karonga and Bvumbwe, increase in five-day maximum rainfall (Rx5day over Bvumbwe. Mzimba and Chileka recorded a significant decrease in very wet days (R95p while a significant increase was observed over Thyolo. Chileka was the only station which observed a significant trend (decrease in extremely wet rainfall (R99p. Mzimba was the only station that reported a significant trend (decrease in annual wet-day rainfall total (PRCPTOT and Thyolo was the only station that reported a significant trend (increase in simple daily intensity (SDII. Furthermore, the findings of this study revealed that, during wet years, Malawi is characterised by an anomalous convergence of strong south-easterly and north-easterly winds. This convergence is the main rain bringing mechanism to Malawi.

  6. Probabilistic attribution of individual unprecedented extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diffenbaugh, N. S.

    2016-12-01

    The last decade has seen a rapid increase in efforts to understand the influence of global warming on individual extreme climate events. Although trends in the distributions of climate observations have been thoroughly analyzed, rigorously quantifying the contribution of global-scale warming to individual events that are unprecedented in the observed record presents a particular challenge. This paper describes a method for leveraging observations and climate model ensembles to quantify the influence of historical global warming on the severity and probability of unprecedented events. This approach uses formal inferential techniques to quantify four metrics: (1) the contribution of the observed trend to the event magnitude, (2) the contribution of the observed trend to the event probability, (3) the probability of the observed trend in the current climate and a climate without human influence, and (4) the probability of the event magnitude in the current climate and a climate without human influence. Illustrative examples are presented, spanning a range of climate variables, timescales, and regions. These examples illustrate that global warming can influence the severity and probability of unprecedented extremes. In some cases - particularly high temperatures - this change is indicated by changes in the mean. However, changes in probability do not always arise from changes in the mean, suggesting that global warming can alter the frequency with which complex physical conditions co-occur. Because our framework is transparent and highly generalized, it can be readily applied to a range of climate events, regions, and levels of climate forcing.

  7. GLOBAL SIMULATION OF AN EXTREME ULTRAVIOLET IMAGING TELESCOPE WAVE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmidt, J. M.; Ofman, L.

    2010-01-01

    We use the observation of an Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) wave in the lower solar corona, seen with the two Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) spacecraft in extreme ultraviolet light on 2007 May 19, to model the same event with a three-dimensional (3D) time-depending magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) code that includes solar coronal magnetic fields derived with Wilcox Solar Observatory magnetogram data, and a solar wind outflow accelerated with empirical heating functions. The model includes a coronal mass ejection (CME) of Gibson and Low flux rope type above the reconstructed active region with parameters adapted from observations to excite the EIT wave. We trace the EIT wave running as circular velocity enhancement around the launching site of the CME in the direction tangential to the sphere produced by the wave front, and compute the phase velocities of the wave front. We find that the phase velocities are in good agreement with theoretical values for a fast magnetosonic wave, derived with the physical parameters of the model, and with observed phase speeds of an incident EIT wave reflected by a coronal hole and running at about the same location. We also produce in our 3D MHD model the observed reflection of the EIT wave at the coronal hole boundary, triggered by the magnetic pressure difference between the wave front hitting the hole and the boundary magnetic fields of the coronal hole, and the response of the coronal hole, which leads to the generation of secondary reflected EIT waves radiating away in different directions than the incident EIT wave. This is the first 3D MHD model of an EIT wave triggered by a CME that includes realistic solar magnetic field, with results comparing favorably to STEREO Extreme Ultraviolet Imager observations.

  8. Invited Article: Visualisation of extreme value events in optical communications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derevyanko, Stanislav; Redyuk, Alexey; Vergeles, Sergey; Turitsyn, Sergei

    2018-06-01

    Fluctuations of a temporal signal propagating along long-haul transoceanic scale fiber links can be visualised in the spatio-temporal domain drawing visual analogy with ocean waves. Substantial overlapping of information symbols or use of multi-frequency signals leads to strong statistical deviations of local peak power from an average signal power level. We consider long-haul optical communication systems from this unusual angle, treating them as physical systems with a huge number of random statistical events, including extreme value fluctuations that potentially might affect the quality of data transmission. We apply the well-established concepts of adaptive wavefront shaping used in imaging through turbid medium to detect the detrimental phase modulated sequences in optical communications that can cause extreme power outages (rare optical waves of ultra-high amplitude) during propagation down the ultra-long fiber line. We illustrate the concept by a theoretical analysis of rare events of high-intensity fluctuations—optical freak waves, taking as an example an increasingly popular optical frequency division multiplexing data format where the problem of high peak to average power ratio is the most acute. We also show how such short living extreme value spikes in the optical data streams are affected by nonlinearity and demonstrate the negative impact of such events on the system performance.

  9. Occurrence of 1 ka-old corals on an uplifted reef terrace in west Luzon, Philippines: Implications for a prehistoric extreme wave event in the South China Sea region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, Noelynna T.; Maxwell, Kathrine V.; Tsutsumi, Hiroyuki; Chou, Yu-Chen; Duan, Fucai; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Satake, Kenji

    2017-12-01

    Recent 230Th dating of fossil corals in west Luzon has provided new insights on the emergence of late Quaternary marine terraces that fringe west Luzon Island facing the Manila Trench. Apart from regional sea level changes, accumulated uplift from aseismic and seismic processes may have influenced the emergence of sea level indicators such as coral terraces and notches. Varied elevations of middle-to-late Holocene coral terraces along the west Luzon coasts reveal the differential uplift that is probably associated with the movement of local onland faults or upper-plate structures across the Manila Trench forearc basin. In Badoc Island, offshore west of Luzon mainland, we found notably young fossil corals, dated at 945.1 ± 4.6 years BP and 903.1 ± 3.9 years BP, on top of a 5-m-high reef platform. To constrain the mechanism of emergence or emplacement of these fossil corals, we use field geomorphic data and wave inundation models to constrain an extreme wave event that affected west Luzon about 1000 years ago. Our preliminary tectonic and tsunami models show that a megathrust rupture will likely lead to subsidence of a large part of the west Luzon coast, while permanent coastal uplift is attributed to an offshore upper-plate rupture in the northern Manila Trench forearc region. The modeled source fault ruptures and tsunami lead to a maximum wave height of more than 3 m and inundation distance as far as 2 km along the coasts of western and northern Luzon. While emplacement of coral boulders by an unusually strong typhoon is also likely, modeled storm surge heights along west Luzon do not exceed 2 m even with Typhoon Haiyan characteristics. Whether tsunami or unusually strong typhoon, the occurrence of a prehistoric extreme wave event in west Luzon remains an important issue in future studies of coastal hazards in the South China Sea region.

  10. Meteorological Drivers of Extreme Air Pollution Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horton, D. E.; Schnell, J.; Callahan, C. W.; Suo, Y.

    2017-12-01

    The accumulation of pollutants in the near-surface atmosphere has been shown to have deleterious consequences for public health, agricultural productivity, and economic vitality. Natural and anthropogenic emissions of ozone and particulate matter can accumulate to hazardous concentrations when atmospheric conditions are favorable, and can reach extreme levels when such conditions persist. Favorable atmospheric conditions for pollutant accumulation include optimal temperatures for photochemical reaction rates, circulation patterns conducive to pollutant advection, and a lack of ventilation, dispersion, and scavenging in the local environment. Given our changing climate system and the dual ingredients of poor air quality - pollutants and the atmospheric conditions favorable to their accumulation - it is important to characterize recent changes in favorable meteorological conditions, and quantify their potential contribution to recent extreme air pollution events. To facilitate our characterization, this study employs the recently updated Schnell et al (2015) 1°×1° gridded observed surface ozone and particulate matter datasets for the period of 1998 to 2015, in conjunction with reanalysis and climate model simulation data. We identify extreme air pollution episodes in the observational record and assess the meteorological factors of primary support at local and synoptic scales. We then assess (i) the contribution of observed meteorological trends (if extant) to the magnitude of the event, (ii) the return interval of the meteorological event in the observational record, simulated historical climate, and simulated pre-industrial climate, as well as (iii) the probability of the observed meteorological trend in historical and pre-industrial climates.

  11. Changes in Extreme Events and the Potential Impacts on National Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, J.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme weather and climate events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socio-economic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for changes in the future. Some of the extreme events that have already changed are heat waves, droughts, wildfires, flooding rains, coastal flooding, storm surge, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local intricacies of societal and environmental factors that influences the level of exposure. The goal of this presentation is to discuss the national security implications of changes in extreme weather events and demonstrate how changes in extremes can lead to a host cascading issues. To illustrate this point, this presentation will provide examples of the various pathways that extreme events can increase disease burden and cause economic stress.

  12. Earth's portfolio of extreme sediment transport events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korup, Oliver

    2012-05-01

    Quantitative estimates of sediment flux and the global cycling of sediments from hillslopes to rivers, estuaries, deltas, continental shelves, and deep-sea basins have a long research tradition. In this context, extremely large and commensurately rare sediment transport events have so far eluded a systematic analysis. To start filling this knowledge gap I review some of the highest reported sediment yields in mountain rivers impacted by volcanic eruptions, earthquake- and storm-triggered landslide episodes, and catastrophic dam breaks. Extreme specific yields, defined here as those exceeding the 95th percentile of compiled data, are ~ 104 t km- 2 yr- 1 if averaged over 1 yr. These extreme yields vary by eight orders of magnitude, but systematically decay with reference intervals from minutes to millennia such that yields vary by three orders of magnitude for a given reference interval. Sediment delivery from natural dam breaks and pyroclastic eruptions dominate these yields for a given reference interval. Even if averaged over 102-103 yr, the contribution of individual disturbances may remain elevated above corresponding catchment denudation rates. I further estimate rates of sediment (re-)mobilisation by individual giant terrestrial and submarine mass movements. Less than 50 postglacial submarine mass movements have involved an equivalent of ~ 10% of the contemporary annual global flux of fluvial sediment to Earth's oceans, while mobilisation rates by individual events rival the decadal-scale sediment discharge from tectonically active orogens such as Taiwan or New Zealand. Sediment flushing associated with catastrophic natural dam breaks is non-stationary and shows a distinct kink at the last glacial-interglacial transition, owing to the drainage of very large late Pleistocene ice-marginal lakes. Besides emphasising the contribution of high-magnitude and low-frequency events to the global sediment cascade, these findings stress the importance of sediment storage

  13. Extreme Wave Analysis by Integrating Model and Wave Buoy Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabio Dentale

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Estimating the extreme values of significant wave height (HS, generally described by the HS return period TR function HS(TR and by its confidence intervals, is a necessity in many branches of coastal science and engineering. The availability of indirect wave data generated by global and regional wind and wave model chains have brought radical changes to the estimation procedures of such probability distribution—weather and wave modeling systems are routinely run all over the world, and HS time series for each grid point are produced and published after assimilation (analysis of the ground truth. However, while the sources of such indirect data are numerous, and generally of good quality, many aspects of their procedures are hidden to the users, who cannot evaluate the reliability and the limits of the HS(TR deriving from such data. In order to provide a simple engineering tool to evaluate the probability of extreme sea-states as well as the quality of such estimates, we propose here a procedure based on integrating HS time series generated by model chains with those recorded by wave buoys in the same area.

  14. Stream Response to an Extreme Defoliation Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gold, A.; Loffredo, J.; Addy, K.; Bernhardt, E. S.; Berdanier, A. B.; Schroth, A. W.; Inamdar, S. P.; Bowden, W. B.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme climatic events are known to profoundly impact stream flow and stream fluxes. These events can also exert controls on insect outbreaks, which may create marked changes in stream characteristics. The invasive Gypsy Moth (Lymantria dispar dispar) experiences episodic infestations based on extreme climatic conditions within the northeastern U.S. In most years, gypsy moth populations are kept in check by diseases. In 2016 - after successive years of unusually warm, dry spring and summer weather -gypsy moth caterpillars defoliated over half of Rhode Island's 160,000 forested ha. No defoliation of this magnitude had occurred for more than 30 years. We examined one RI headwater stream's response to the defoliation event in 2016 compared with comparable data in 2014 and 2015. Stream temperature and flow was gauged continuously by USGS and dissolved oxygen (DO) was measured with a YSI EXO2 sonde every 30 minutes during a series of deployments in the spring, summer and fall from 2014-2016. We used the single station, open channel method to estimate stream metabolism metrics. We also assessed local climate and stream temperature data from 2009-2016. We observed changes in stream responses during the defoliation event that suggest changes in ET, solar radiation and heat flux. Although the summer of 2016 had more drought stress (PDSI) than previous years, stream flow occurred throughout the summer, in contrast to several years with lower drought stress when stream flow ceased. Air temperature in 2016 was similar to prior years, but stream temperature was substantially higher than the prior seven years, likely due to the loss of canopy shading. DO declined dramatically in 2016 compared to prior years - more than the rising stream temperatures would indicate. Gross Primary Productivity was significantly higher during the year of the defoliation, indicating more total fixation of inorganic carbon from photo-autotrophs. In 2016, Ecosystem Respiration was also higher and Net

  15. Maximum Redshift of Gravitational Wave Merger Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koushiappas, Savvas M.; Loeb, Abraham

    2017-12-01

    Future generations of gravitational wave detectors will have the sensitivity to detect gravitational wave events at redshifts far beyond any detectable electromagnetic sources. We show that if the observed event rate is greater than one event per year at redshifts z ≥40 , then the probability distribution of primordial density fluctuations must be significantly non-Gaussian or the events originate from primordial black holes. The nature of the excess events can be determined from the redshift distribution of the merger rate.

  16. Long-term decline of the canopy-forming algae Gelidium corneum, associated to extreme wave events and reduced sunlight hours, in the southeastern Bay of Biscay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borja, Angel; Chust, Guillem; Fontán, Almudena; Garmendia, Joxe Mikel; Uyarra, María C.

    2018-05-01

    Canopy-forming macroalgae are experiencing large biogeographical shifts due to climate change. One of them (Gelidium corneum) has shown a dramatic decline in biomass in northern Spain, in the past 20 years. We investigate here two most plausible hypotheses to explain its decline: (i) a combination of increasing wave energy and decrease of irradiance in the growth season; and (ii) a combination of increasing light in summer and decreasing nutrient concentration. Using a dataset of biomass and environmental variables (1993-2016), in three sectors and three water depths, we have determined that the variables explaining more biomass variability were: suspended solids, nitrate, sunlight hours, significant wave height threshold exceedances (Hs5m), temperature, silicate, and nitrite. When undertaking multiple regression analyses for the whole depth range, only the model including sunlight hours with Hs5m was selected, being highly significant (p algae from the substratum during the growth season. The decline rate in biomass with time, at each sector and depth, was highly correlated (p < 0.001) to the wave energy flux received at each depth, which was higher at 5 m in all sectors, decreasing with depth. In turn, nutrients, instead of decreasing, have increased, and only nitrate presented a significant negative correlation with G. corneum biomass, which was not significant after detrending. The significant (p = 0.001) increase in rainfall over the studied period can explain the increase of those nutrients. Hence, we question whether the effect of nutrients is such, as already described. The most likely factor explaining the decline of this macroalga was the combination of sunlight hours decrease and Hs5m increase.

  17. A pentatonic classification of extreme events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eliazar, Iddo; Cohen, Morrel H.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we present a classification of the extreme events – very small and very large outcomes – of positive-valued random variables. The classification distinguishes five different categories of randomness, ranging from the very ‘mild’ to the very ‘wild’. In analogy with the common five-tone musical scale we term the classification ‘pentatonic’. The classification is based on the analysis of the inherent Gibbsian ‘forces’ and ‘temperatures’ existing on the logarithmic scale of the random variables under consideration, and provides a statistical-physics insight regarding the nature of these random variables. The practical application of the pentatonic classification is remarkably straightforward, it can be performed by non-experts, and it is demonstrated via an array of examples

  18. Expected impacts of climate change on extreme climate events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Planton, S.; Deque, M.; Chauvin, F.; Terray, L.

    2008-01-01

    An overview of the expected change of climate extremes during this century due to greenhouse gases and aerosol anthropogenic emissions is presented. The most commonly used methodologies rely on the dynamical or statistical down-scaling of climate projections, performed with coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Either of dynamical or of statistical type, down-scaling methods present strengths and weaknesses, but neither their validation on present climate conditions, nor their potential ability to project the impact of climate change on extreme event statistics allows one to give a specific advantage to one of the two types. The results synthesized in the last IPCC report and more recent studies underline a convergence for a very likely increase in heat wave episodes over land surfaces, linked to the mean warming and the increase in temperature variability. In addition, the number of days of frost should decrease and the growing season length should increase. The projected increase in heavy precipitation events appears also as very likely over most areas and also seems linked to a change in the shape of the precipitation intensity distribution. The global trends for drought duration are less consistent between models and down-scaling methodologies, due to their regional variability. The change of wind-related extremes is also regionally dependent, and associated to a poleward displacement of the mid-latitude storm tracks. The specific study of extreme events over France reveals the high sensitivity of some statistics of climate extremes at the decadal time scale as a consequence of regional climate internal variability. (authors)

  19. Extreme Events and Energy Providers: Science and Innovation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yiou, P.; Vautard, R.

    2012-04-01

    Most socio-economic regulations related to the resilience to climate extremes, from infrastructure or network design to insurance premiums, are based on a present-day climate with an assumption of stationarity. Climate extremes (heat waves, cold spells, droughts, storms and wind stilling) affect in particular energy production, supply, demand and security in several ways. While national, European or international projects have generated vast amounts of climate projections for the 21st century, their practical use in long-term planning remains limited. Estimating probabilistic diagnostics of energy user relevant variables from those multi-model projections will help the energy sector to elaborate medium to long-term plans, and will allow the assessment of climate risks associated to those plans. The project "Extreme Events for Energy Providers" (E3P) aims at filling a gap between climate science and its practical use in the energy sector and creating in turn favourable conditions for new business opportunities. The value chain ranges from addressing research questions directly related to energy-significant climate extremes to providing innovative tools of information and decision making (including methodologies, best practices and software) and climate science training for the energy sector, with a focus on extreme events. Those tools will integrate the scientific knowledge that is developed by scientific communities, and translate it into a usable probabilistic framework. The project will deliver projection tools assessing the probabilities of future energy-relevant climate extremes at a range of spatial scales varying from pan-European to local scales. The E3P project is funded by the Knowledge and Innovation Community (KIC Climate). We will present the mechanisms of interactions between academic partners, SMEs and industrial partners for this project. Those mechanisms are elementary bricks of a climate service.

  20. Defining Extreme Events: A Cross-Disciplinary Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    McPhillips, Lauren E.; Chang, Heejun; Chester, Mikhail V.; Depietri, Yaella; Friedman, Erin; Grimm, Nancy B.; Kominoski, John S.; McPhearson, Timon; Méndez-Lázaro, Pablo; Rosi, Emma J.; Shafiei Shiva, Javad

    2018-03-01

    Extreme events are of interest worldwide given their potential for substantial impacts on social, ecological, and technical systems. Many climate-related extreme events are increasing in frequency and/or magnitude due to anthropogenic climate change, and there is increased potential for impacts due to the location of urbanization and the expansion of urban centers and infrastructures. Many disciplines are engaged in research and management of these events. However, a lack of coherence exists in what constitutes and defines an extreme event across these fields, which impedes our ability to holistically understand and manage these events. Here, we review 10 years of academic literature and use text analysis to elucidate how six major disciplines—climatology, earth sciences, ecology, engineering, hydrology, and social sciences—define and communicate extreme events. Our results highlight critical disciplinary differences in the language used to communicate extreme events. Additionally, we found a wide range in definitions and thresholds, with more than half of examined papers not providing an explicit definition, and disagreement over whether impacts are included in the definition. We urge distinction between extreme events and their impacts, so that we can better assess when responses to extreme events have actually enhanced resilience. Additionally, we suggest that all researchers and managers of extreme events be more explicit in their definition of such events as well as be more cognizant of how they are communicating extreme events. We believe clearer and more consistent definitions and communication can support transdisciplinary understanding and management of extreme events.

  1. Extreme scattering events towards two young pulsars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerr, M.; Coles, W. A.; Ward, C. A.; Johnston, S.; Tuntsov, A. V.; Shannon, R. M.

    2018-03-01

    We have measured the scintillation properties of 151 young, energetic pulsars with the Parkes radio telescope and have identified two extreme scattering events (ESEs). Towards PSR J1057-5226, we discovered a 3 yr span of strengthened scattering during which the variability in flux density and the scintillation bandwidth decreased markedly. The transverse size of the scattering region is ˜23 au, and strong flux density enhancement before and after the ESE may arise from refractive focusing. Long observations reveal scintillation arcs characteristic of interference between rays scattered at large angles, and the clearest arcs appear during the ESE. The arcs suggest scattering by a screen 100-200 pc from the Earth, perhaps ionized filamentary structure associated with the boundary of the local bubble(s). Towards PSR J1740-3015, we observed a `double dip' in the measured flux density similar to ESEs observed towards compact extragalactic radio sources. The observed shape is consistent with that produced by a many-au scale diverging plasma lens with electron density ˜500 cm-3. The continuing ESE is at least 1500 d long, making it the longest detected event to date. These detections, with materially different observational signatures, indicate that well-calibrated pulsar monitoring is a keen tool for ESE detection and interstellar medium (ISM) diagnostics. They illustrate the strong role au-scale non-Kolmogorov density fluctuations and the local ISM structure play in such events and are key to understanding both their intrinsic physics and their impact on other phenomena, particularly fast radio bursts.

  2. Possible future changes in extreme events over Northern Eurasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, Erwan; Sokolov, Andrei; Scott, Jeffery

    2013-04-01

    In this study, we investigate possible future climate change over Northern Eurasia and its impact on extreme events. Northern Eurasia is a major player in the global carbon budget because of boreal forests and peatlands. Circumpolar boreal forests alone contain more than five times the amount of carbon of temperate forests and almost double the amount of carbon of the world's tropical forests. Furthermore, severe permafrost degradation associated with climate change could result in peatlands releasing large amounts of carbon dioxide and methane. Meanwhile, changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events, such as extreme precipitation, heat waves or frost days are likely to have substantial impacts on Northern Eurasia ecosystems. For this reason, it is very important to quantify the possible climate change over Northern Eurasia under different emissions scenarios, while accounting for the uncertainty in the climate response and changes in extreme events. For several decades, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change has been investigating uncertainty in climate change using the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework, an integrated assessment model that couples an earth system model of intermediate complexity (with a 2D zonal-mean atmosphere) to a human activity model. In this study, regional change is investigated using the MIT IGSM-CAM framework that links the IGSM to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). New modules were developed and implemented in CAM to allow climate parameters to be changed to match those of the IGSM. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-equivalent stabilization, which are similar to, respectively, the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios. Values of climate sensitivity and net aerosol

  3. Correlation between Space and Atmospheric March 2012 Extreme Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anagnostopoulos, Georgios C.

    2015-04-01

    Previous studies have provided statistical evidence of a solar cycle correlation between space weather and meteorological phenomena. In this study we present a case study, the March 2012 events, with a strong evidence of such a correlation between space and atmospheric extreme events. March 2012 phenomena, beside a great CME (March 7) and a following superstorm, has been most known in the scientific community as well as in the public from the historic heat wave in USA. This event was not anticipated by solely atmospheric models (called a "black swan event":http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/csi/events/2012/marchheatwave/anticipation.html). Furthermore, various extreme phenomena as high temperatures, intense rainfalls and ice extent at middle and high latitudes followed the March 7, 2012 CME all over the globe (USA, Europe, Australia, Antartic), while unusual measurements of various atmospheric and ionospheric quantities were observed by a series of satellites (TIMED, MODIS, NOAA etc.) In this study we concentrate to (a) the unusual high maximum of temperature in north-east USA (highest values since 1910) and (b) intense winds, rainfalls and fluctuating (>1500 V/m) geolectric fields in South East Europe (Greece). These events were observed almost simultaneously with geomagnetic storms and unusual radiation belt electron precipitation (RBEP) events on days 6-9, 10-12 and 26-28.3.2012 (two CMEs and one CIR). The most striking result is the time coincidence of variations of several space and meteorological measurements, which, for instance, most probably suggests a direct influence of the RBEP on the intense rainfalls observed in Greece. It is also possible that the RBEP at polar latitudes was responsible for the positive North Atlantic Oscillation effect evaluated at those times, which contributed to the global middle and high latitude weather variations. Our study provides an example of possible space weather utility to the atmospheric models, and, therefore, to the

  4. Projections of extreme water level events for atolls in the western Tropical Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merrifield, M. A.; Becker, J. M.; Ford, M.; Yao, Y.

    2014-12-01

    Conditions that lead to extreme water levels and coastal flooding are examined for atolls in the Republic of the Marshall Islands based on a recent field study of wave transformations over fringing reefs, tide gauge observations, and wave model hindcasts. Wave-driven water level extremes pose the largest threat to atoll shorelines, with coastal levels scaling as approximately one-third of the incident breaking wave height. The wave-driven coastal water level is partitioned into a mean setup, low frequency oscillations associated with cross-reef quasi-standing modes, and wind waves that reach the shore after undergoing high dissipation due to breaking and bottom friction. All three components depend on the water level over the reef; however, the sum of the components is independent of water level due to cancelling effects. Wave hindcasts suggest that wave-driven water level extremes capable of coastal flooding are infrequent events that require a peak wave event to coincide with mid- to high-tide conditions. Interannual and decadal variations in sea level do not change the frequency of these events appreciably. Future sea-level rise scenarios significantly increase the flooding threat associated with wave events, with a nearly exponential increase in flooding days per year as sea level exceeds 0.3 to 1.0 m above current levels.

  5. PULSAR OBSERVATIONS OF EXTREME SCATTERING EVENTS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coles, W. A.; Kerr, M.; Shannon, R. M.; Hobbs, G. B.; Manchester, R. N.; Dai, S.; Ravi, V.; Reardon, D.; Toomey, L.; Zhu, X. J.; You, X.-P.; Bailes, M.; Straten, W. van; Bhat, N. D. R.; Burke-Spolaor, S.; Keith, M. J.; Levin, Y.; Osłowski, S.; Wang, J. B.; Wen, L.

    2015-01-01

    Extreme scattering events (ESEs) in the interstellar medium (ISM) were first observed in regular flux measurements of compact extragalactic sources. They are characterized by a flux variation over a period of weeks, suggesting the passage of a “diverging plasma lens” across the line of sight (LOS). Modeling the refraction of such a lens indicates that the structure size must be of the order of AU and the electron density of the order of 10s of cm −3 . Similar structures have been observed in measurements of pulsar intensity scintillation and group delay. Here we report observations of two ESEs, showing increases in both intensity scintillation and dispersion made with the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array. These allow us to make more complete models of the ESE, including an estimate of the “outer-scale” of the turbulence in the plasma lens. These observations clearly show that the ESE structure is fully turbulent on an AU scale. They provide some support for the idea that the structures are extended along the LOS, such as would be the case for a scattering shell. The dispersion measurements also show a variety of AU scale structures that would not be called ESEs, yet involve electron density variations typical of ESEs and likely have the same origin

  6. Pulsar Observations of Extreme Scattering Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coles, W. A.; Kerr, M.; Shannon, R. M.; Hobbs, G. B.; Manchester, R. N.; You, X.-P.; Bailes, M.; Bhat, N. D. R.; Burke-Spolaor, S.; Dai, S.; Keith, M. J.; Levin, Y.; Osłowski, S.; Ravi, V.; Reardon, D.; Toomey, L.; van Straten, W.; Wang, J. B.; Wen, L.; Zhu, X. J.

    2015-08-01

    Extreme scattering events (ESEs) in the interstellar medium (ISM) were first observed in regular flux measurements of compact extragalactic sources. They are characterized by a flux variation over a period of weeks, suggesting the passage of a “diverging plasma lens” across the line of sight (LOS). Modeling the refraction of such a lens indicates that the structure size must be of the order of AU and the electron density of the order of 10s of cm-3. Similar structures have been observed in measurements of pulsar intensity scintillation and group delay. Here we report observations of two ESEs, showing increases in both intensity scintillation and dispersion made with the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array. These allow us to make more complete models of the ESE, including an estimate of the “outer-scale” of the turbulence in the plasma lens. These observations clearly show that the ESE structure is fully turbulent on an AU scale. They provide some support for the idea that the structures are extended along the LOS, such as would be the case for a scattering shell. The dispersion measurements also show a variety of AU scale structures that would not be called ESEs, yet involve electron density variations typical of ESEs and likely have the same origin.

  7. PULSAR OBSERVATIONS OF EXTREME SCATTERING EVENTS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coles, W. A. [ECE Department, University of California at San Diego, La Jolla, CA, 92093-0407 (United States); Kerr, M.; Shannon, R. M.; Hobbs, G. B.; Manchester, R. N.; Dai, S.; Ravi, V.; Reardon, D.; Toomey, L.; Zhu, X. J. [ATNF, CSIRO Astronomy and Space Science, P.O. Box 76, Epping, NSW 1710 (Australia); You, X.-P. [Southwest University, Chongqing (China); Bailes, M.; Straten, W. van [Centre for Astrophysics and Supercomputing, Swinburne University of Technology, P.O. Box 218, Hawthorn, VIC 3122 (Australia); Bhat, N. D. R. [International Centre for Radio Astronomy Research, Curtin University, Bentley, WA 6102 (Australia); Burke-Spolaor, S. [California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, 1200 E California Boulevard, CA 91125 (United States); Keith, M. J. [Jodrell Bank Centre for Astrophysics, School of Physics and Astronomy, The University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL (United Kingdom); Levin, Y. [Monash Center for Astrophysics, School of Physics and Astronomy, Monash University, Vic 3800 (Australia); Osłowski, S. [Max-Planck-Institut für Radioastronomie, Auf dem Hügel 69, D-53121 Bonn (Germany); Wang, J. B. [Xinjiang Astronomical Observatory, Chinese Academy of Science, 150 Science 1-Street, Urumqi, Xinjiang, 830011 (China); Wen, L., E-mail: bcoles@ucsd.edu [University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, WA 6009 (Australia)

    2015-08-01

    Extreme scattering events (ESEs) in the interstellar medium (ISM) were first observed in regular flux measurements of compact extragalactic sources. They are characterized by a flux variation over a period of weeks, suggesting the passage of a “diverging plasma lens” across the line of sight (LOS). Modeling the refraction of such a lens indicates that the structure size must be of the order of AU and the electron density of the order of 10s of cm{sup −3}. Similar structures have been observed in measurements of pulsar intensity scintillation and group delay. Here we report observations of two ESEs, showing increases in both intensity scintillation and dispersion made with the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array. These allow us to make more complete models of the ESE, including an estimate of the “outer-scale” of the turbulence in the plasma lens. These observations clearly show that the ESE structure is fully turbulent on an AU scale. They provide some support for the idea that the structures are extended along the LOS, such as would be the case for a scattering shell. The dispersion measurements also show a variety of AU scale structures that would not be called ESEs, yet involve electron density variations typical of ESEs and likely have the same origin.

  8. An Extreme-ultraviolet Wave Generating Upward Secondary Waves in a Streamer-like Solar Structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Ruisheng; Chen, Yao; Feng, Shiwei; Wang, Bing; Song, Hongqiang

    2018-05-01

    Extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) waves, spectacular horizontally propagating disturbances in the low solar corona, always trigger horizontal secondary waves (SWs) when they encounter the ambient coronal structure. We present the first example of upward SWs in a streamer-like structure after the passing of an EUV wave. This event occurred on 2017 June 1. The EUV wave happened during a typical solar eruption including a filament eruption, a coronal mass ejection (CME), and a C6.6 flare. The EUV wave was associated with quasi-periodic fast propagating (QFP) wave trains and a type II radio burst that represented the existence of a coronal shock. The EUV wave had a fast initial velocity of ∼1000 km s‑1, comparable to high speeds of the shock and the QFP wave trains. Intriguingly, upward SWs rose slowly (∼80 km s‑1) in the streamer-like structure after the sweeping of the EUV wave. The upward SWs seemed to originate from limb brightenings that were caused by the EUV wave. All of the results show that the EUV wave is a fast-mode magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) shock wave, likely triggered by the flare impulses. We suggest that part of the EUV wave was probably trapped in the closed magnetic fields of the streamer-like structure, and upward SWs possibly resulted from the release of slow-mode trapped waves. It is believed that the interplay of the strong compression of the coronal shock and the configuration of the streamer-like structure is crucial for the formation of upward SWs.

  9. Recent Extreme Marine Events at Southern Coast of Black Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozyurt Tarakcioglu, Gulizar; Cevdet Yalciner, Ahmet; Kirezci, Cagil; Baykal, Cuneyt; Gokhan Guler, Hasan; Erol, Onur; Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey

    2015-04-01

    The utilization at the coastal areas of Black Sea basin has increased in the recent years with the projects such as large commercial ports, international transportation hubs, gas and petrol pipelines, touristic and recreational infrastructures both along surrounding shoreline. Although Black Sea is a closed basin, extreme storms and storm surges have also been observed with an increasing frequency in the recent years. Among those events, February 1999, March 2013 and September 2014 storms impacted Southern coast of Black sea have clearly shown that the increasing economic value at the coastal areas caused the increasing cost of damages and loss of property by natural hazards. The storm occurred on February 19-20, 1999 is one of the most destructive storm in the last decades. The 1999 event (1999 Southern Black sea storm) caused destruction at all harbors and coastal protection structures along the Black Sea coast of Turkey. The complete damage of the breakwater of Giresun Harbor and damage on the harbor structures and cargo handling equipment were the major impacts of the 1999 Southern Black sea storm. Similar coastal impact have also been observed during the September 24, 2014 storm at 500m East of Giresun harbor. Although there are considerable number of destructive storms observed at southern coast of Black sea recently, data on these events are limited and vastly scattered. In this study the list of recent extreme marine events at South coast of the Black sea compiled and related data such as wind speed, wave height, period, and type of damages are cataloged. Particular attention is focused on the 1999 and 2014 storm events. The meteorological and morphological characteristics which may be considered as the reasons of the generation and coastal amplification of these storms are discussed. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: This study is partly supported by Turkish Russian Joint Research Grant Program by TUBITAK (Turkey) and RFBR (Russia), and TUBITAK 213M534 Research Project.

  10. Observations and estimates of wave-driven water level extremes at the Marshall Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merrifield, M. A.; Becker, J. M.; Ford, M.; Yao, Y.

    2014-10-01

    Wave-driven extreme water levels are examined for coastlines protected by fringing reefs using field observations obtained in the Republic of the Marshall Islands. The 2% exceedence water level near the shoreline due to waves is estimated empirically for the study sites from breaking wave height at the outer reef and by combining separate contributions from setup, sea and swell, and infragravity waves, which are estimated based on breaking wave height and water level over the reef flat. Although each component exhibits a tidal dependence, they sum to yield a 2% exceedence level that does not. A hindcast based on the breaking wave height parameterization is used to assess factors leading to flooding at Roi-Namur caused by an energetic swell event during December 2008. Extreme water levels similar to December 2008 are projected to increase significantly with rising sea level as more wave and tide events combine to exceed inundation threshold levels.

  11. Energy Infrastructure and Extreme Events (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wakimoto, R. M.

    2013-12-01

    The country's energy infrastructure is sensitive to the environment, especially extreme events. Increasing global temperatures, intense storms, and space weather have the potential to disrupt energy production and transport. It can also provide new opportunities as illustrated by the opening of the Northwest Passage. The following provides an overview of some of the high impacts of major geophysical events on energy production and transport. Future predictions of hurricanes suggest that we can expect fewer storms but they will be associated with stronger winds and more precipitation. The winds and storm surge accompanying hurricane landfall along the Gulf States has had a major impact on the coastal energy infrastructure and the oil/natural gas platforms. The impact of these surges will increase with predicted sea level rise. Hurricane Katrina caused damage to crude oil pipelines and refineries that reduced oil production by 19% for the year. The disruption that can occur is not necessarily linked with the maximum winds of the tropical storm as recently shown by Hurricane Sandy which was classified as a ';post-tropical cyclone' during landfall. Another intense circulation, the tornado, can also cause power outages and network breaks from high winds that can topple power poles or damage power lines from fallen trees. Fortunately, the Moore tornado, rated EF5, did not have a major impact on the oil and gas infrastructure in Oklahoma. The impact of earthquakes and tsunamis on energy was illustrated in Japan in 2011 with the shutdown of the Fukushima Daiichi plant. Other studies have suggested that there are areas in the United States where the energy services are highly vulnerable to major earthquakes that would disrupt electrical and gas networks for extended periods of time. Seismic upgrades to the energy infrastructure would help mitigate the impact. In 1859, a coronal mass ejection triggered a geomagnetic storm that disrupted communication wires around the world

  12. A Fourier analysis of extremal events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Yuwei

    is the extremal periodogram. The extremal periodogram shares numerous asymptotic properties with the periodogram of a linear process in classical time series analysis: the asymptotic distribution of the periodogram ordinates at the Fourier frequencies have a similar form and smoothed versions of the periodogram...

  13. Extreme wave impacts on monopiles: Re-analysis of experimental data by a coupled CFD solver

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ghadirian, Amin; Bredmose, Henrik; Schløer, Signe

    2017-01-01

    Two different numerical models, OceanWave3D and a coupled solver, OceanWave3D-OpenFOAM (Waves2Foam), are used to reproduce extreme events in one sea state. The events are chosen as, the measured event that generates the largest peak moment (exceedance probability of 0.05%) and one event with a sl...... agreement with the measurements. The secondary load cycles are observed in the measured force and bending moment time series and the reproduced times series using OpenFOAM....

  14. Alternative measures of risk of extreme events in decision trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frohwein, H.I.; Lambert, J.H.; Haimes, Y.Y.

    1999-01-01

    A need for a methodology to control the extreme events, defined as low-probability, high-consequence incidents, in sequential decisions is identified. A variety of alternative and complementary measures of the risk of extreme events are examined for their usability as objective functions in sequential decisions, represented as single- or multiple-objective decision trees. Earlier work had addressed difficulties, related to non-separability, with the minimization of some measures of the risk of extreme events in sequential decisions. In an extension of these results, it is shown how some non-separable measures of the risk of extreme events can be interpreted in terms of separable constituents of risk, thereby enabling a wider class of measures of the risk of extreme events to be handled in a straightforward manner in a decision tree. Also for extreme events, results are given to enable minimax- and Hurwicz-criterion analyses in decision trees. An example demonstrates the incorporation of different measures of the risk of extreme events in a multi-objective decision tree. Conceptual formulations for optimizing non-separable measures of the risk of extreme events are identified as an important area for future investigation

  15. Extreme temperature events affecting the electricity distribution system of the metropolitan area of Buenos Aires (1971–2013)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santágata, Daniela M.; Castesana, Paula; Rössler, Cristina E.; Gómez, Darío R.

    2017-01-01

    We studied the role of cold waves and heat waves on major power outages in the metropolitan area of Buenos Aires. Impacts of events occurring in the tails of distributions were assessed estimating deviations of minimum temperature, maximum temperature and hourly electricity consumption with respect to statistically derived thresholds and using three sets of data: temperature observations (1911–2013); major power outages reported in a disaster database (1971–2013) and hourly electricity consumption (2006–2013). These deviations (exceedances) proved to be adequate indicators of the stress posed by extreme temperature events to the electricity distribution system leading to major blackouts. Based on these indicators, we found that the electricity distribution system was under similar stress during cold waves or heat waves, but it was much more vulnerable to heat waves (three blackouts under cold waves against 20 under heat waves between 2006 and 2013). For heat waves, the results of a binomial regression logistic model provided an adequate description of the probability of disastrous supply interruptions in terms of exceedances in extreme temperatures and electricity consumption stress. This approach may be of use for other cities wishing to evaluate the effects of extreme temperature events on the electricity distribution infrastructure. - Highlights: • The linkage between extreme temperatures and disastrous power outages is analyzed. • Exceedance in extreme temperature and electricity consumption are stress indicators. • Extreme temperatures pose moderate to extreme impacts to electricity distribution. • Electricity distribution is more vulnerable to heat waves than cold waves.

  16. Economics of extreme weather events: Terminology and regional impact models

    OpenAIRE

    Jahn, Malte

    2015-01-01

    Impacts of extreme weather events are relevant for regional (in the sense of subnational) economies and in particular cities in many aspects. Cities are the cores of economic activity and the amount of people and assets endangered by extreme weather events is large, even under the current climate. A changing climate with changing extreme weather patterns and the process of urbanization will make the whole issue even more relevant in the future. In this paper, definitions and terminology in th...

  17. Numerical modelling of extreme waves by Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. H. Dao

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available The impact of extreme/rogue waves can lead to serious damage of vessels as well as marine and coastal structures. Such extreme waves in deep water are characterized by steep wave fronts and an energetic wave crest. The process of wave breaking is highly complex and, apart from the general knowledge that impact loadings are highly impulsive, the dynamics of the breaking and impact are still poorly understood. Using an advanced numerical method, the Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics enhanced with parallel computing is able to reproduce well the extreme waves and their breaking process. Once the waves and their breaking process are modelled successfully, the dynamics of the breaking and the characteristics of their impact on offshore structures could be studied. The computational methodology and numerical results are presented in this paper.

  18. Changes in extreme events and the potential impacts on human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Jesse E; Brown, Claudia Langford; Conlon, Kathryn; Herring, Stephanie; Kunkel, Kenneth E; Lawrimore, Jay; Luber, George; Schreck, Carl; Smith, Adam; Uejio, Christopher

    2018-04-01

    Extreme weather and climate-related events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, dust storms, flooding rains, coastal flooding, storm surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden. More information is needed about the impacts of climate change on public health and economies to effectively plan for and adapt to climate change. This paper describes some of the ways extreme events are changing and provides examples of the potential impacts on human health and infrastructure. It also identifies key research gaps to be addressed to improve the resilience of public health to extreme events in the future. Extreme weather and climate events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, flooding rains, coastal flooding, surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden.

  19. Coping with extreme climate events: Institutional flocking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koppen, van C.S.A.; Mol, A.P.J.; Tatenhove, van J.P.M.

    2010-01-01

    The article explores the governance structures that would be needed to cope with extreme and unpredictable climate change. The impacts on the Netherlands of a Gulf Stream collapse in the Northern Atlantic are taken as a case. This hypothetical situation of serious risks and high uncertainties

  20. Modelling extreme climatic events in Guadalquivir Estuary ( Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delgado, Juan; Moreno-Navas, Juan; Pulido, Antoine; García-Lafuente, Juan; Calero Quesada, Maria C.; García, Rodrigo

    2017-04-01

    Extreme climatic events, such as heat waves and severe storms are predicted to increase in frequency and magnitude as a consequence of global warming but their socio-ecological effects are poorly understood, particularly in estuarine ecosystems. The Guadalquivir Estuary has been anthropologically modified several times, the original salt marshes have been transformed to grow rice and cotton and approximately one-fourth of the total surface of the estuary is now part of two protected areas, one of them is a UNESCO, MAB Biosphere Reserve. The climatic events are most likely to affect Europe in forthcoming decades and a further understanding how these climatic disturbances drive abrupt changes in the Guadalquivir estuary is needed. A barotropic model has been developed to study how severe storm events affects the estuary by conducting paired control and climate-events simulations. The changes in the local wind and atmospheric pressure conditions in the estuary have been studied in detail and several scenarios are obtained by running the model under control and real storm conditions. The model output has been validated with in situ water elevation and good agreement between modelled and real measurements have been obtained. Our preliminary results show that the model demonstrated the capability describe of the tide-surge levels in the estuary, opening the possibility to study the interaction between climatic events and the port operations and food production activities. The barotropic hydrodynamic model provide spatially explicit information on the key variables governing the tide dynamics of estuarine areas under severe climatic scenarios . The numerical model will be a powerful tool in future climate change mitigation and adaptation programs in a complex socio-ecological system.

  1. Extreme events, intrinsic landforms and humankind: Post-tsunami scenario along Nagore–Velankanni coast, Tamil Nadu, India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mascarenhas, A.

    , destruction of shorefront dwellings, formation of inlets and new water bodies. Extreme events confirmed that sand dunes and dense forests possess an innate capacity of attenuating wave up-rush, evidenced respectively by negligible overwash, and by modest...

  2. Extreme meteorological events and nuclear facilities safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Almeida, Patricia Moco Princisval

    2006-01-01

    An External Event is an event that originates outside the site and whose effects on the Nuclear Power Plants (NPP) should be considered. Such events could be of natural or human induced origin and should be identified and selected for design purposes during the site evaluation process. This work shows that the subtropics and mid latitudes of South America east of the Andes Mountain Range have been recognized as prone to severe convective weather. In Brazil, the events of tornadoes are becoming frequent; however there is no institutionalized procedure for a systematic documentation of severe weather. The information is done only for some scientists and by the newspapers. Like strong wind can affect the structural integrity of buildings or the pressure differential can affect the ventilation system, our concern is the safety of NPP and for this purpose the recommendations of International Atomic Energy Agency, Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Comissao Nacional de Energia Nuclear are showed and also a data base of tornadoes in Brazil is done. (author)

  3. Remote Sensing of Surficial Process Responses to Extreme Meteorological Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brakenridge, G. Robert

    1997-01-01

    Changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme meteorological events are associated with changing environmental means. Such events are important in human affairs, and can also be investigated by orbital remote sensing. During the course of this project, we applied ERS-1, ERS-2, Radarsat, and an airborne sensor (AIRSAR-TOPSAR) to measure flood extents, flood water surface profiles, and flood depths. We established a World Wide Web site (the Dartmouth Flood Observatory) for publishing remote sensing-based maps of contemporary floods worldwide; this is also an online "active archive" that presently constitutes the only global compilation of extreme flood events. We prepared an article for EOS concerning SAR imaging of the Mississippi Valley flood; an article for the International Journal of Remote Sensing on measurement of a river flood wave using ERS-2, began work on an article (since completed and published) on the Flood Observatory for a Geoscience Information Society Proceedings volume, and presented lectures at several Geol. Soc. of America Natl. Meetings, an Assoc. of Amer. Geographers Natl. Meeting, and a Binghamton Geomorphology Symposium (all on SAR remote sensing of the Mississippi Valley flood). We expanded in-house modeling capabilities by installing the latest version of the Army Corps of Engineers RMA two-dimensional hydraulics software and BYU Engineering Graphics Lab's Surface Water Modeling System (finite elements based pre- and post-processors for RMA work) and also added watershed modeling software. We are presently comparing the results of the 2-d flow models with SAR image data. The grant also supported several important upgrades of pc-based remote sensing infrastructure at Dartmouth. During work on this grant, we collaborated with several workers at the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Remote Sensing/GIS laboratory (for flood inundation mapping and modeling; particularly of the Illinois River using the AIRSAR/TOPSAR/ERS-2 combined data), with Dr

  4. Effects of Extreme Events on Arsenic Cycling in Salt Marshes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Northrup, Kristy; Capooci, Margaret; Seyfferth, Angelia L.

    2018-03-01

    Extreme events such as storm surges, intense precipitation, and supermoons cause anomalous and large fluctuations in water level in tidal salt marshes, which impacts the sediment biogeochemistry that dictates arsenic (As) cycling. In addition to changes in water level, which impacts soil redox potential, these extreme events may also change salinity due to freshwater inputs from precipitation or saltwater inputs due to surge. It is currently unknown how As mobility in tidal salt marshes will be impacted by extreme events, as fluctuations in salinity and redox potential may act synergistically to mobilize As. To investigate impacts of extreme events on As cycling in tidal salt marshes, we conducted a combined laboratory and field investigation. We monitored pore water and soil samples before, during, and after two extreme events: a supermoon lunar eclipse followed by a storm surge and precipitation induced by Hurricane Joaquin in fall 2015 at the St. Jones Reserve in Dover, Delaware, a representative tidal salt marsh in the Mid-Atlantic United States. We also conducted soil incubations of marsh sediments in batch and in flow-through experiments in which redox potential and/or salinity were manipulated. Field investigations showed that pore water As was inversely proportional to redox potential. During the extreme events, a distinct pulse of As was observed in the pore water with maximum salinity. Combined field and laboratory investigations revealed that this As pulse is likely due to rapid changes in salinity. These results have implications for As mobility in the face of extreme weather variability.

  5. Sovereign Default Analysis through Extreme Events Identification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vasile George MARICA

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates contagion in international credit markets through the use of a novel jump detection technique proposed by Chan and Maheuin (2002. This econometrical methodology is preferred because it is non-linear by definition and not a subject to volatility bias. Also, the identified jumps in CDS premiums are considered as outliers positioned beyond any stochastic movement that can and is already modelled through well-known linear analysis. Though contagion is hard to define, we show that extreme discrete movements in default probabilities inferred from CDS premiums can lead to sound economic conclusions about the risk profile of sovereign nations in international bond markets. We find evidence of investor sentiment clustering for countries with unstable political regimes or that are engaged in armed conflict. Countries that have in their recent history faced currency or financial crises are less vulnerable to external unexpected shocks. First we present a brief history of sovereign defaults with an emphasis on their increased frequency and geographical reach, as financial markets become more and more integrated. We then pass to a literature review of the most important definitions for contagion, and discuss what quantitative methods are available to detect the presence of contagion. The paper continues with the details for the methodology of jump detection through non-linear modelling and its use in the field of contagion identification. In the last sections we present the estimation results for simultaneous jumps between emerging markets CDS and draw conclusions on the difference of behavior in times of extreme movement versus tranquil periods.

  6. Investigation of the relationship between hurricane waves and extreme runup

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, D. M.; Stockdon, H. F.

    2006-12-01

    In addition to storm surge, the elevation of wave-induced runup plays a significant role in forcing geomorphic change during extreme storms. Empirical formulations for extreme runup, defined as the 2% exceedence level, are dependent on some measure of significant offshore wave height. Accurate prediction of extreme runup, particularly during hurricanes when wave heights are large, depends on selecting the most appropriate measure of wave height that provides energy to the nearshore system. Using measurements from deep-water wave buoys results in an overprediction of runup elevation. Under storm forcing these large waves dissipate across the shelf through friction, whitecapping and depth-limited breaking before reaching the beach and forcing swash processes. The use of a local, shallow water wave height has been shown to provide a more accurate estimate of extreme runup elevation (Stockdon, et. al. 2006); however, a specific definition of this local wave height has yet to be defined. Using observations of nearshore waves from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Field Research Facility (FRF) in Duck, NC during Hurricane Isabel, the most relevant measure of wave height for use in empirical runup parameterizations was examined. Spatial and temporal variability of the hurricane wave field, which made landfall on September 18, 2003, were modeled using SWAN. Comparisons with wave data from FRF gages and deep-water buoys operated by NOAA's National Data Buoy Center were used for model calibration. Various measures of local wave height (breaking, dissipation-based, etc.) were extracted from the model domain and used as input to the runup parameterizations. Video based observations of runup collected at the FRF during the storm were used to ground truth modeled values. Assessment of the most appropriate measure of wave height can be extended over a large area through comparisons to observations of storm- induced geomorphic change.

  7. Extreme Hurricane-Generated Waves in Gulf of Mexico

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Alberto, Carlos; Fernandes, Santos

    2005-01-01

    .... Although WaveWatchIII (WW3) is used by many operational forecasting centers around the world, there is a lack of field studies to evaluate its accuracy in regional applications and under extreme conditions, such as Hurricanes...

  8. Evaluation of climate change impact on extreme hydrological event ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Changes in hydrological extremes will have implications on the design of future hydraulic structures, flood plain development, and water resource management. This study assesses the potential impact of climate change on extreme hydrological events in the Akaki River catchment area in and around Addis Ababa city.

  9. Public perceptions of climate change and extreme weather events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruine de Bruin, W.; Dessai, S.; Morgan, G.; Taylor, A.; Wong-Parodi, G.

    2013-12-01

    Climate experts face a serious communication challenge. Public debate about climate change continues, even though at the same time people seem to complain about extreme weather events becoming increasingly common. As compared to the abstract concept of ';climate change,' (changes in) extreme weather events are indeed easier to perceive, more vivid, and personally relevant. Public perception research in different countries has suggested that people commonly expect that climate change will lead to increases in temperature, and that unseasonably warm weather is likely to be interpreted as evidence of climate change. However, relatively little is known about whether public concerns about climate change may also be driven by changes in other types of extreme weather events, such as exceptional amounts of precipitation or flooding. We therefore examined how perceptions of and personal experiences with changes in these specific weather events are related to public concerns about climate change. In this presentation, we will discuss findings from two large public perception surveys conducted in flood-prone Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (US) and with a national sample in the UK, where extreme flooding has recently occurred across the country. Participants completed questions about their perceptions of and experiences with specific extreme weather events, and their beliefs about climate change. We then conducted linear regressions to predict individual differences in climate-change beliefs, using perceptions of and experiences with specific extreme weather events as predictors, while controlling for demographic characteristics. The US study found that people (a) perceive flood chances to be increasing over the decades, (b) believe climate change to play a role in increases in future flood chances, and (c) would interpret future increases in flooding as evidence for climate change. The UK study found that (a) UK residents are more likely to perceive increases in ';wet' events such

  10. Stochastic procedures for extreme wave induced responses in flexible ships

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jørgen Juncher; Andersen, Ingrid Marie Vincent; Seng, Sopheak

    2014-01-01

    Different procedures for estimation of the extreme global wave hydroelastic responses in ships are discussed. Firstly, stochastic procedures for application in detailed numerical studies (CFD) are outlined. The use of the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) to generate critical wave episodes...

  11. Operational early warning platform for extreme meteorological events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mühr, Bernhard; Kunz, Michael

    2015-04-01

    Operational early warning platform for extreme meteorological events Most natural disasters are related to extreme weather events (e.g. typhoons); weather conditions, however, are also highly relevant for humanitarian and disaster relief operations during and after other natural disaster like earthquakes. The internet service "Wettergefahren-Frühwarnung" (WF) provides various information on extreme weather events, especially when these events are associated with a high potential for large damage. The main focus of the platform is on Central Europe, but major events are also monitored worldwide on a daily routine. WF provides high-resolution forecast maps for many weather parameters which allow detailed and reliable predictions about weather conditions during the next days in the affected areas. The WF service became operational in February 2004 and is part of the Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM) since 2007. At the end of 2011, CEDIM embarked a new type of interdisciplinary disaster research termed as forensic disaster analysis (FDA) in near real time. In case of an imminent extreme weather event WF plays an important role in CEDIM's FDA group. It provides early and precise information which are always available and updated several times during a day and gives advice and assists with articles and reports on extreme events.

  12. Extreme event statistics in a drifting Markov chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kindermann, Farina; Hohmann, Michael; Lausch, Tobias; Mayer, Daniel; Schmidt, Felix; Widera, Artur

    2017-07-01

    We analyze extreme event statistics of experimentally realized Markov chains with various drifts. Our Markov chains are individual trajectories of a single atom diffusing in a one-dimensional periodic potential. Based on more than 500 individual atomic traces we verify the applicability of the Sparre Andersen theorem to our system despite the presence of a drift. We present detailed analysis of four different rare-event statistics for our system: the distributions of extreme values, of record values, of extreme value occurrence in the chain, and of the number of records in the chain. We observe that, for our data, the shape of the extreme event distributions is dominated by the underlying exponential distance distribution extracted from the atomic traces. Furthermore, we find that even small drifts influence the statistics of extreme events and record values, which is supported by numerical simulations, and we identify cases in which the drift can be determined without information about the underlying random variable distributions. Our results facilitate the use of extreme event statistics as a signal for small drifts in correlated trajectories.

  13. Future Extreme Event Vulnerability in the Rural Northeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter, J.; Bowen, F. L.; Partridge, T.; Chipman, J. W.

    2017-12-01

    Future climate change impacts on humans will be determined by the convergence of evolving physical climate and socioeconomic systems. Of particular concern is the intersection of extreme events and vulnerable populations. Rural areas of the Northeastern United States have experienced increased temperature and precipitation extremes, especially over the past three decades, and face unique challenges due to their physical isolation, natural resources dependent economies, and high poverty rates. To explore the impacts of future extreme events on vulnerable, rural populations in the Northeast, we project extreme events and vulnerability indicators to identify where changes in extreme events and vulnerable populations coincide. Specifically, we analyze future (2046-2075) maximum annual daily temperature, minimum annual daily temperature, maximum annual daily precipitation, and maximum consecutive dry day length for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 using four global climate models (GCM) and a gridded observational dataset. We then overlay those projections with estimates of county-level population and relative income for 2060 to calculate changes in person-events from historical (1976-2005), with a focus on Northeast counties that have less than 250,000 people and are in the bottom income quartile. We find that across the rural Northeast for RCP4.5, heat person-events per year increase tenfold, far exceeding decreases in cold person-events and relatively small changes in precipitation and drought person-events. Counties in the bottom income quartile have historically (1976-2005) experienced a disproportionate number of heat events, and counties in the bottom two income quartiles are projected to experience a greater heat event increase by 2046-2075 than counties in the top two income quartiles. We further explore the relative contributions of event frequency, population, and income changes to the total and geographic distribution of climate change

  14. Attribution of extreme weather and climate-related events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stott, Peter A; Christidis, Nikolaos; Otto, Friederike E L; Sun, Ying; Vanderlinden, Jean-Paul; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Vautard, Robert; von Storch, Hans; Walton, Peter; Yiou, Pascal; Zwiers, Francis W

    2016-01-01

    Extreme weather and climate-related events occur in a particular place, by definition, infrequently. It is therefore challenging to detect systematic changes in their occurrence given the relative shortness of observational records. However, there is a clear interest from outside the climate science community in the extent to which recent damaging extreme events can be linked to human-induced climate change or natural climate variability. Event attribution studies seek to determine to what extent anthropogenic climate change has altered the probability or magnitude of particular events. They have shown clear evidence for human influence having increased the probability of many extremely warm seasonal temperatures and reduced the probability of extremely cold seasonal temperatures in many parts of the world. The evidence for human influence on the probability of extreme precipitation events, droughts, and storms is more mixed. Although the science of event attribution has developed rapidly in recent years, geographical coverage of events remains patchy and based on the interests and capabilities of individual research groups. The development of operational event attribution would allow a more timely and methodical production of attribution assessments than currently obtained on an ad hoc basis. For event attribution assessments to be most useful, remaining scientific uncertainties need to be robustly assessed and the results clearly communicated. This requires the continuing development of methodologies to assess the reliability of event attribution results and further work to understand the potential utility of event attribution for stakeholder groups and decision makers. WIREs Clim Change 2016, 7:23-41. doi: 10.1002/wcc.380 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.

  15. Wind and waves in extreme hurricanes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Holthuijsen, L.H.; Powell, M.D.; Pietrzak, J.D.

    2012-01-01

    Waves breaking at the ocean surface are important to the dynamical, chemical and biological processes at the air-sea interface. The traditional view is that the white capping and aero-dynamical surface roughness increase with wind speed up to a limiting value. This view is fundamental to hurricane

  16. Statistical analysis on extreme wave height

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Teena, N.V.; SanilKumar, V.; Sudheesh, K.; Sajeev, R.

    -294. • WAFO (2000) – A MATLAB toolbox for analysis of random waves and loads, Lund University, Sweden, homepage http://www.maths.lth.se/matstat/wafo/,2000. 15    Table 1: Statistical results of data and fitted distribution for cumulative distribution...

  17. Numerical simulation of floating bodies in extreme free surface waves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Z. Hu

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we use the in-house Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD flow code AMAZON-SC as a numerical wave tank (NWT to study wave loading on a wave energy converter (WEC device in heave motion. This is a surface-capturing method for two fluid flows that treats the free surface as contact surface in the density field that is captured automatically without special provision. A time-accurate artificial compressibility method and high resolution Godunov-type scheme are employed in both fluid regions (air/water. The Cartesian cut cell method can provide a boundary-fitted mesh for a complex geometry with no requirement to re-mesh globally or even locally for moving geometry, requiring only changes to cut cell data at the body contour. Extreme wave boundary conditions are prescribed in an empty NWT and compared with physical experiments prior to calculations of extreme waves acting on a floating Bobber-type device. The validation work also includes the wave force on a fixed cylinder compared with theoretical and experimental data under regular waves. Results include free surface elevations, vertical displacement of the float, induced vertical velocity and heave force for a typical Bobber geometry with a hemispherical base under extreme wave conditions.

  18. Methodology for featuring and assessing extreme climatic events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malleron, N.; Bernardara, P.; Benoit, M.; Parey, S.; Perret, C.

    2013-01-01

    The setting up of a nuclear power plant on a particular site requires the assessment of risks linked to extreme natural events like flooding or earthquakes. As a consequence of the Fukushima accident EDF proposes to take into account even rarer events in order to improve the robustness of the facility all over its operating life. This article presents the methodology used by EDF to analyse a set of data in a statistical way in order to extract extreme values. This analysis is based on the theory of extreme values and is applied to the extreme values of the flow rate in the case of a river overflowing. This methodology is made of 6 steps: 1) selection of the event, of its featuring parameter and of its probability, for instance the question is what is the flow rate of a flooding that has a probability of 10 -3 to happen, 2) to collect data over a long period of time (or to recover data from past periods), 3) to extract extreme values from the data, 4) to find an adequate statistical law that fits the spreading of the extreme values, 5) the selected statistical law must be validated through visual or statistical tests, and 6) the computation of the flow rate of the event itself. (A.C.)

  19. Modelling of Performance of Caisson Type Breakwaters under Extreme Waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Güney Doǧan, Gözde; Özyurt Tarakcıoǧlu, Gülizar; Baykal, Cüneyt

    2016-04-01

    Many coastal structures are designed without considering loads of tsunami-like waves or long waves although they are constructed in areas prone to encounter these waves. Performance of caisson type breakwaters under extreme swells is tested in Middle East Technical University (METU) Coastal and Ocean Engineering Laboratory. This paper presents the comparison of pressure measurements taken along the surface of caisson type breakwaters and obtained from numerical modelling of them using IH2VOF as well as damage behavior of the breakwater under the same extreme swells tested in a wave flume at METU. Experiments are conducted in the 1.5 m wide wave flume, which is divided into two parallel sections (0.74 m wide each). A piston type of wave maker is used to generate the long wave conditions located at one end of the wave basin. Water depth is determined as 0.4m and kept constant during the experiments. A caisson type breakwater is constructed to one side of the divided flume. The model scale, based on the Froude similitude law, is chosen as 1:50. 7 different wave conditions are applied in the tests as the wave period ranging from 14.6 s to 34.7 s, wave heights from 3.5 m to 7.5 m and steepness from 0.002 to 0.015 in prototype scale. The design wave parameters for the breakwater were 5m wave height and 9.5s wave period in prototype. To determine the damage of the breakwater which were designed according to this wave but tested under swell waves, video and photo analysis as well as breakwater profile measurements before and after each test are performed. Further investigations are carried out about the acting wave forces on the concrete blocks of the caisson structures via pressure measurements on the surfaces of these structures where the structures are fixed to the channel bottom minimizing. Finally, these pressure measurements will be compared with the results obtained from the numerical study using IH2VOF which is one of the RANS models that can be applied to simulate

  20. Extreme inflow events and synoptic forcing in Sydney catchments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pepler, Acacia S; Rakich, Clinton S

    2010-01-01

    The Sydney catchment region encompasses over 16,000km 2 , supplying water to over 4 million inhabitants. However, few studies have investigated the synoptic and climatic influences on inflow in this region, which are crucial for understanding the vulnerability of water supply in a changing climate. This study identifies extremely high and low inflow events between 1960 and 2008 based on catchment averages. The focus of the study is an analysis of the synoptic cause/s of each extreme inflow event. The events are evaluated to identify any trends and also to determine the concurrent significant climatic influences on rainfall over the catchments. Relationships between catchment inflow, rainfall, tropical SST indices, and other influencing factors such as observed wind and temperatures are investigated. Our results show that East Coast Lows and anomalously easterly flow are the drivers of high inflow events, with low inflow events dominated by westerly wind patterns and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation.

  1. Extreme wave and wind response predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jørgen Juncher; Olsen, Anders S.; Mansour, Alaa E.

    2011-01-01

    codes and the short duration of the time domain simulations needed (typically 60–300s to cover the hydro- and aerodynamic memory effects in the response) the calculation of the mean out-crossing rates of a given response is fast. Thus non-linear effects can be included. Furthermore, the FORM analysis...... also identifies the most probable wave episodes leading to given responses.Because of the linearization of the failure surface in the FORM procedure the results are only asymptotically exact and thus MCS often also needs to be performed. In the present paper a scaling property inherent in the FORM...

  2. The Damage To The Armour Layer Due To Extreme Waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oztunali Ozbahceci, Berguzar; Ergin, Aysen; Takayama, Tomotsuka

    2010-05-01

    The sea waves are not regular but random and chaotic. In order to understand this randomness, it is common to make individual wave analysis in time domain or spectral analysis in frequency domain. Characteristic wave heights like Hmax, H%2,H1-10, H1-3, Hmean are obtained through individual wave analysis in time domain. These characteristic wave heights are important because they are used in the design of different type of coastal structures. It is common to use significant wave height, H1-3,for the design of rubble mound structures. Therefore, only spectrally derived or zero-crossing significant wave height is usually reported for the rubble mound breakwaters without any information on larger waves. However, even the values of H1-3are similar; some train of irregular waves may exhibit a large fluctuation of instantaneous wave energy, while another train may not show such a fluctuation (Goda, 1998). Moreover, freak or rogue wave, simply defined as the wave exceeding at least twice the significant wave height may also occur. Those larger waves were called as extreme waves in this study and the effect of extreme waves on the damage to the armour layer of rubble mound breakwaters was investigated by means of hydraulic model experiment. Rock armored rubble mound breakwater model with 1:1.5 slope was constructed in the wave channel of Hydraulics Laboratory of the Disaster Prevention Research Institute of Kyoto University, Japan. The model was consisted of a permeable core layer, a filter and armour layer with two stones thicknesses. Size of stones were same for both of the slopes as Dn50(armour)=0.034m, Dn50(filter)=0.021m and Dn50(core)=0.0148m for armour, filter and core layers, respectively. Time series which are approximately equal to 1000 waves, with similar significant wave height but different extreme wave height cases were generated. In order to generate necessary time series in the wave channel, they were firstly computed by numerically. For the numerical

  3. Characterization and prediction of extreme events in turbulence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fonda, Enrico; Iyer, Kartik P.; Sreenivasan, Katepalli R.

    2017-11-01

    Extreme events in Nature such as tornadoes, large floods and strong earthquakes are rare but can have devastating consequences. The predictability of these events is very limited at present. Extreme events in turbulence are the very large events in small scales that are intermittent in character. We examine events in energy dissipation rate and enstrophy which are several tens to hundreds to thousands of times the mean value. To this end we use our DNS database of homogeneous and isotropic turbulence with Taylor Reynolds numbers spanning a decade, computed with different small scale resolutions and different box sizes, and study the predictability of these events using machine learning. We start with an aggressive data augmentation to virtually increase the number of these rare events by two orders of magnitude and train a deep convolutional neural network to predict their occurrence in an independent data set. The goal of the work is to explore whether extreme events can be predicted with greater assurance than can be done by conventional methods (e.g., D.A. Donzis & K.R. Sreenivasan, J. Fluid Mech. 647, 13-26, 2010).

  4. Stochastic Procedures for Extreme Wave Load Predictions- Wave Bending Moment in Ships

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jørgen Juncher

    2009-01-01

    A discussion of useful stochastic procedures for stochastic wave load problems is given, covering the range from slightly linear to strongly non-linear (bifurcation) problems. The methods are: Hermite transformation, Critical wave episodes and the First Order Reliability Method (FORM). The proced......). The procedures will be illustrated by results for the extreme vertical wave bending moment in ships....

  5. Laws of small numbers extremes and rare events

    CERN Document Server

    Falk, Michael; Hüsler, Jürg

    2004-01-01

    Since the publication of the first edition of this seminar book in 1994, the theory and applications of extremes and rare events have enjoyed an enormous and still increasing interest. The intention of the book is to give a mathematically oriented development of the theory of rare events underlying various applications. This characteristic of the book was strengthened in the second edition by incorporating various new results on about 130 additional pages. Part II, which has been added in the second edition, discusses recent developments in multivariate extreme value theory. Particularly notable is a new spectral decomposition of multivariate distributions in univariate ones which makes multivariate questions more accessible in theory and practice. One of the most innovative and fruitful topics during the last decades was the introduction of generalized Pareto distributions in the univariate extreme value theory. Such a statistical modelling of extremes is now systematically developed in the multivariate fram...

  6. Extreme Space Weather Events: From Cradle to Grave

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riley, Pete; Baker, Dan; Liu, Ying D.; Verronen, Pekka; Singer, Howard; Güdel, Manuel

    2018-02-01

    Extreme space weather events, while rare, can have a substantial impact on our technologically-dependent society. And, although such events have only occasionally been observed, through careful analysis of a wealth of space-based and ground-based observations, historical records, and extrapolations from more moderate events, we have developed a basic picture of the components required to produce them. Several key issues, however, remain unresolved. For example, what limits are imposed on the maximum size of such events? What are the likely societal consequences of a so-called "100-year" solar storm? In this review, we summarize our current scientific understanding about extreme space weather events as we follow several examples from the Sun, through the solar corona and inner heliosphere, across the magnetospheric boundary, into the ionosphere and atmosphere, into the Earth's lithosphere, and, finally, its impact on man-made structures and activities, such as spacecraft, GPS signals, radio communication, and the electric power grid. We describe preliminary attempts to provide probabilistic forecasts of extreme space weather phenomena, and we conclude by identifying several key areas that must be addressed if we are better able to understand, and, ultimately, predict extreme space weather events.

  7. Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, and Human Health Implications in the Asia Pacific Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashim, Jamal Hisham; Hashim, Zailina

    2016-03-01

    The Asia Pacific region is regarded as the most disaster-prone area of the world. Since 2000, 1.2 billion people have been exposed to hydrometeorological hazards alone through 1215 disaster events. The impacts of climate change on meteorological phenomena and environmental consequences are well documented. However, the impacts on health are more elusive. Nevertheless, climate change is believed to alter weather patterns on the regional scale, giving rise to extreme weather events. The impacts from extreme weather events are definitely more acute and traumatic in nature, leading to deaths and injuries, as well as debilitating and fatal communicable diseases. Extreme weather events include heat waves, cold waves, floods, droughts, hurricanes, tropical cyclones, heavy rain, and snowfalls. Globally, within the 20-year period from 1993 to 2012, more than 530 000 people died as a direct result of almost 15 000 extreme weather events, with losses of more than US$2.5 trillion in purchasing power parity. © 2015 APJPH.

  8. Statistical Analysis of Wave Climate Data Using Mixed Distributions and Extreme Wave Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Li

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The investigation of various aspects of the wave climate at a wave energy test site is essential for the development of reliable and efficient wave energy conversion technology. This paper presents studies of the wave climate based on nine years of wave observations from the 2005–2013 period measured with a wave measurement buoy at the Lysekil wave energy test site located off the west coast of Sweden. A detailed analysis of the wave statistics is investigated to reveal the characteristics of the wave climate at this specific test site. The long-term extreme waves are estimated from applying the Peak over Threshold (POT method on the measured wave data. The significant wave height and the maximum wave height at the test site for different return periods are also compared. In this study, a new approach using a mixed-distribution model is proposed to describe the long-term behavior of the significant wave height and it shows an impressive goodness of fit to wave data from the test site. The mixed-distribution model is also applied to measured wave data from four other sites and it provides an illustration of the general applicability of the proposed model. The methodologies used in this paper can be applied to general wave climate analysis of wave energy test sites to estimate extreme waves for the survivability assessment of wave energy converters and characterize the long wave climate to forecast the wave energy resource of the test sites and the energy production of the wave energy converters.

  9. Extreme localization of light with femtosecond subwavelength rogue waves

    KAUST Repository

    Liu, Changxu

    2015-01-01

    By using theory and experiments, we investigate a new mechanism based on spontaneous synchronization of random waves which generates ultrafast subwavelength rare events in integrated photonic chips. © 2014 Optical Society of America.

  10. Extreme wildfire events are linked to global-change-type droughts in the northern Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruffault, Julien; Curt, Thomas; Martin-StPaul, Nicolas K.; Moron, Vincent; Trigo, Ricardo M.

    2018-03-01

    Increasing drought conditions under global warming are expected to alter the frequency and distribution of large and high-intensity wildfires. However, our understanding of the impact of increasing drought on extreme wildfires events remains incomplete. Here, we analyzed the weather conditions associated with the extreme wildfires events that occurred in Mediterranean France during the exceptionally dry summers of 2003 and 2016. We identified that these fires were related to two distinct shifts in the fire weather space towards fire weather conditions that had not been explored before and resulting from specific interactions between different types of drought and different fire weather types. In 2016, a long-lasting press drought intensified wind-driven fires. In 2003, a hot drought combining a heat wave with a press drought intensified heat-induced fires. Our findings highlight that increasing drought conditions projected by climate change scenarios might affect the dryness of fuel compartments and lead to a higher frequency of extremes wildfires events.

  11. Extreme wave phenomena in down-stream running modulated waves

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Andonowati, A.; Karjanto, N.; van Groesen, Embrecht W.C.

    Modulational, Benjamin-Feir, instability is studied for the down-stream evolution of surface gravity waves. An explicit solution, the soliton on finite background, of the NLS equation in physical space is used to study various phenomena in detail. It is shown that for sufficiently long modulation

  12. Laws of small numbers extremes and rare events

    CERN Document Server

    Falk, Michael; Reiss, Rolf-Dieter

    2011-01-01

    Since the publication of the first edition of this seminar book in 1994, the theory and applications of extremes and rare events have enjoyed an enormous and still increasing interest. The intention of the book is to give a mathematically oriented development of the theory of rare events underlying various applications. This characteristic of the book was strengthened in the second edition by incorporating various new results. In this third edition, the dramatic change of focus of extreme value theory has been taken into account: from concentrating on maxima of observations it has shifted to l

  13. Extreme climatic events: reducing ecological and social systems vulnerabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Decamps, H.; Amatore, C.; Bach, J.F.; Baccelli, F.; Balian, R.; Carpentier, A.; Charnay, P.; Cuzin, F.; Davier, M.; Dercourt, J.; Dumas, C.; Encrenaz, P.; Jeannerod, M.; Kahane, J.P.; Meunier, B.; Rebut, P.H.; Salencon, J.; Spitz, E.; Suquet, P.; Taquet, P.; Valleron, A.J.; Yoccoz, J.C.; Chapron, J.Y.; Fanon, J.; Andre, J.C.; Auger, P.; Bourrelier, P.H.; Combes, C.; Derrida, B.; Laubier, L.; Laval, K.; Le Maho, Y.; Marsily, G. De; Petit, M.; Schmidt-Laine, C.; Birot, Y.; Peyron, J.L.; Seguin, B.; Barles, S.; Besancenot, J.P.; Michel-Kerjan, E.; Hallegatte, S.; Dumas, P.; Ancey, V.; Requier-Desjardins, M.; Ducharnes, A.; Ciais, P.; Peylin, P.; Kaniewski, D.; Van Campo, E.; Planton, S.; Manuguerra, J.C.; Le Bars, Y.; Lagadec, P.; Kessler, D.; Pontikis, C.; Nussbaum, R.

    2010-01-01

    The Earth has to face more and more devastating extreme events. Between 1970 and 2009, at the worldwide scale, the 25 most costly catastrophes all took place after 1987, and for more than half of them after 2001. Among these 25 catastrophes, 23 were linked to climate conditions. France was not spared: the December 1999 storms led to 88 deaths, deprived 3.5 million households of electricity and costed more than 9 billion euros. The 2003 heat wave led to about 15000 supernumerary deaths between August 1 and August 20. The recent Xynthia storm, with its flood barrier ruptures, provoked 53 deaths in addition to many other tragedies that took place in areas liable to flooding. In the present day context of climate change, we know that we must be prepared to even more dangerous events, sometimes unexpected before. These events can have amplified effects because of the urban development, the overpopulation of coastal areas and the anthropization of natural environments. They represent real 'poverty traps' for the poorest countries of the Earth. The anticipation need is real but is our country ready to answer it? Does it have a sufficient contribution to international actions aiming at reducing risks? Is his scientific information suitable? France is not less vulnerable than other countries. It must reinforce its prevention, its response and resilience capacities in the framework of integrated policies of catastrophes risk management as well as in the framework of climate change adaptation plans. This reinforcement supposes the development of vigilance systems with a better risk coverage and benefiting by the advances gained in the meteorology and health domains. It supposes a town and country planning allowing to improve the viability of ecological and social systems - in particular by protecting their diversity. Finally, this reinforcement requires inciting financial coverage solutions for catastrophes prevention and for their management once they have taken place. A

  14. Extreme weather and climate events with ecological relevance: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ummenhofer, Caroline C; Meehl, Gerald A

    2017-06-19

    Robust evidence exists that certain extreme weather and climate events, especially daily temperature and precipitation extremes, have changed in regard to intensity and frequency over recent decades. These changes have been linked to human-induced climate change, while the degree to which climate change impacts an individual extreme climate event (ECE) is more difficult to quantify. Rapid progress in event attribution has recently been made through improved understanding of observed and simulated climate variability, methods for event attribution and advances in numerical modelling. Attribution for extreme temperature events is stronger compared with other event types, notably those related to the hydrological cycle. Recent advances in the understanding of ECEs, both in observations and their representation in state-of-the-art climate models, open new opportunities for assessing their effect on human and natural systems. Improved spatial resolution in global climate models and advances in statistical and dynamical downscaling now provide climatic information at appropriate spatial and temporal scales. Together with the continued development of Earth System Models that simulate biogeochemical cycles and interactions with the biosphere at increasing complexity, these make it possible to develop a mechanistic understanding of how ECEs affect biological processes, ecosystem functioning and adaptation capabilities. Limitations in the observational network, both for physical climate system parameters and even more so for long-term ecological monitoring, have hampered progress in understanding bio-physical interactions across a range of scales. New opportunities for assessing how ECEs modulate ecosystem structure and functioning arise from better scientific understanding of ECEs coupled with technological advances in observing systems and instrumentation.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events

  15. Extreme heat event projections for a coastal megacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz, L. E.; Gonzalez, J.

    2017-12-01

    As summers become warmer, extreme heat events are expected to increase in intensity, frequency, and duration. Large urban centers may affect these projections by introducing feedbacks between the atmosphere and the built environment through processes involving anthropogenic heat, wind modification, radiation blocking, and others. General circulation models are often run with spatial resolutions in the order of 100 km, limiting their skill at resolving local scale processes and highly spatially varying features such as cities' heterogeneous landscape and mountain topography. This study employs climate simulations using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model coupled with a modified multi-layer urban canopy and building energy model to downscale CESM1 at 1 km horizontal resolution across three time slices (2006-2010, 2075-2079, and 2095-2099) and two projections (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). New York City Metropolitan area, with a population of over 20 million and a complex urban canopy, is used as a case study. The urban canopy model of WRF was modified to include a drag coefficient as a function of the building plant area fraction and the introduction of evaporative cooling systems at building roofs to reject the anthropogenic heat from the buildings, with urban canopy parameters computed from the New York City Property Land-Use Tax-lot Output (PLUTO). Model performance is evaluated against the input model and historical records from airport stations, showing improvement in the statistical characteristics in the downscaled model output. Projection results are presented as spatially distributed anomalies in heat wave frequency, duration, and maximum intensity from the 2006-2010 benchmark period. Results show that local sea-breeze circulations mitigate heat wave impacts, following a positive gradient with increasing distance from the coastline. However, end of century RCP 8.5 projections show the possibility of reversal of this pattern, sea surface temperatures increase

  16. Impacts of Extreme Events on Human Health. Chapter 4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Jesse E.; Herring, Stephanie C.; Jantarasami, Lesley; Adrianopoli, Carl; Benedict, Kaitlin; Conlon, Kathryn; Escobar, Vanessa; Hess, Jeremy; Luvall, Jeffrey; Garcia-Pando, Carlos Perez; hide

    2016-01-01

    Increased Exposure to Extreme Events Key Finding 1: Health impacts associated with climate-related changes in exposure to extreme events include death, injury, or illness; exacerbation of underlying medical conditions; and adverse effects on mental health[High Confidence]. Climate change will increase exposure risk in some regions of the United States due to projected increases in the frequency and/or intensity of drought, wildfires, and flooding related to extreme precipitation and hurricanes [Medium Confidence].Disruption of Essential Infrastructure Key Finding 2: Many types of extreme events related to climate change cause disruption of infrastructure, including power, water, transportation, and communication systems, that are essential to maintaining access to health care and emergency response services and safeguarding human health [High Confidence].Vulnerability to Coastal Flooding Key Finding 3: Coastal populations with greater vulnerability to health impacts from coastal flooding include persons with disabilities or other access and functional needs, certain populations of color, older adults, pregnant women and children, low-income populations, and some occupational groups [High Confidence].Climate change will increase exposure risk to coastal flooding due to increases in extreme precipitation and in hurricane intensity and rainfall rates, as well as sea level rise and the resulting increases in storm surge.

  17. Numerical Simulation of Floating Bodies in Extreme Free Surface Waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Zheng Zheng; Causon, Derek; Mingham, Clive; Qiang, Ling

    2010-05-01

    A task of the EPSRC funded research project 'Extreme Wave loading on Offshore Wave Energy Devices: a Hierarchical Team Approach' is to investigate the survivability of two wave energy converter (WEC) devices Pelamis and the Manchester Bobber using different CFD approaches. Both devices float on the water surface, generating the electricity from the motion of the waves. In this paper, we describe developments of the AMAZON-SC 3D numerical wave tank (NWT) to study extreme wave loading of a fixed or floating (in Heave motion) structure. The extreme wave formulation as an inlet condition is due to Dalzell (1999) and Ning et. al. (2009) in which a first or second-order Stokes focused wave can be prescribed. The AMAZON-SC 3D code (see e.g. Hu et al. (2009)) uses a cell centred finite volume method of the Godunov-type for the space discretization of the Euler and Navier Stokes equations. The computational domain includes both air and water regions with the air/water boundary captured as a discontinuity in the density field thereby admitting the break up and recombination of the free surface. Temporal discretisation uses the artificial compressibility method and a dual time stepping strategy to maintain a divergence free velocity field. Cartesian cut cells are used to provide a fully boundary-fitted gridding capability on an regular background Cartesian grid. Solid objects are cut out of the background mesh leaving a set of irregularly shaped cells fitted to the boundary. The advantages of the cut cell approach have been outlined previously by Causon et al. (2000, 2001) including its flexibility for dealing with complex geometries whether stationary or in relative motion. The field grid does not need to be recomputed globally or even locally for moving body cases; all that is necessary is to update the local cut cell data at the body contour for as long as the motion continues. The handing of numerical wave paddles and device motion in a NWT is therefore straightforward

  18. Past and future changes in extreme sea levels and waves

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Lawe, J.A.; Woodworth, P.L.; Knutson, T.; McDonald, R.E.; Mclnnes, K.L.; Woth, K.; Von Storch, H.; Wolf, J.; Swail, V.; Bernier, N.B.; Gulev, S.; Horsburgh, K.J.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.; Hunter, J.R.; Weisse, R.

    of Extreme Sea Level 11.3.1 An Introduction to Storms Both mid-latitude and tropical storms are associated with extremes of sea level. Storm surges are generated by low atmospheric pressure and intense winds over the ocean. The latter also cause high wave... timescales, extremes and mean-sea-level change are both major factors in determining coastal evolution including the development of coastal ecosystems. It will be seen below that, although it is difficult to determine how mean sea level has changed...

  19. Climate Change : Behavioral Responses from Extreme Events and Delayed Damages

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ghidoni, Riccardo; Calzolari, G.; Casari, Marco

    2017-01-01

    Understanding how to sustain cooperation in the climate change global dilemma is crucial to mitigate its harmful consequences. Damages from climate change typically occurs after long delays and can take the form of more frequent realizations of extreme and random events. These features generate a

  20. Climate change : Behavioral responses from extreme events and delayed damages

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ghidoni, Riccardo; Calzolari, Giacomo; Casari, Marco

    2017-01-01

    Understanding how to sustain cooperation in the climate change global dilemma is crucial to mitigate its harmful consequences. Damages from climate change typically occur after long delays and can take the form of more frequent realizations of extreme and random events. These features generate a

  1. What is the right way to talk about extreme events?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobel, A. H.

    2013-12-01

    Extreme weather events draw the attention of the public. By demonstrating the vulnerability of human society to climate, extreme events can cause nonscientists -government leaders as well as the broader population - to take the danger posed by anthropogenic global warming more seriously than they otherwise might. An extreme event that draws media attention can become a 'teachable moment'. But extreme events are difficult to talk about in a way that honors both the strengths and weaknesses of the underlying science. No single event can be attributed to climate change, and some types of events are not even clearly influenced by it (or not in any ways our science can yet demonstrate). Strong, media-friendly statements that closely connect specific events to climate - designed to make best use of the moment's teachability - can easily overstate the case. This will raise the hackles of one's colleagues, at a minimum, and at worst, may damage the credibility of the field more broadly. Yet talking too much about the uncertainties runs the risk of understating the basic truth that global warming is real and dangerous, and may lend inadvertent support to anti-scientific denialism. I will discuss this tension in the context of my own experiences in the media after 'Superstorm' Sandy. I will address arguments I have heard, from social scientists and media consultants, to the effect that climate scientists should adopt communications strategies that lead to stronger, more media-friendly statements, and learn to suppress the tendency, bred into us during our scientific training, to emphasize the uncertainties.

  2. Extreme wind-wave modeling and analysis in the south Atlantic ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campos, R. M.; Alves, J. H. G. M.; Guedes Soares, C.; Guimaraes, L. G.; Parente, C. E.

    2018-04-01

    A set of wave hindcasts is constructed using two different types of wind calibration, followed by an additional test retuning the input source term Sin in the wave model. The goal is to improve the simulation in extreme wave events in the South Atlantic Ocean without compromising average conditions. Wind fields are based on Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR/NCEP). The first wind calibration applies a simple linear regression model, with coefficients obtained from the comparison of CFSR against buoy data. The second is a method where deficiencies of the CFSR associated with severe sea state events are remedied, whereby "defective" winds are replaced with satellite data within cyclones. A total of six wind datasets forced WAVEWATCH-III and additional three tests with modified Sin in WAVEWATCH III lead to a total of nine wave hindcasts that are evaluated against satellite and buoy data for ambient and extreme conditions. The target variable considered is the significant wave height (Hs). The increase of sea-state severity shows a progressive increase of the hindcast underestimation which could be calculated as a function of percentiles. The wind calibration using a linear regression function shows similar results to the adjustments to Sin term (increase of βmax parameter) in WAVEWATCH-III - it effectively reduces the average bias of Hs but cannot avoid the increase of errors with percentiles. The use of blended scatterometer winds within cyclones could reduce the increasing wave hindcast errors mainly above the 93rd percentile and leads to a better representation of Hs at the peak of the storms. The combination of linear regression calibration of non-cyclonic winds with scatterometer winds within the cyclones generated a wave hindcast with small errors from calm to extreme conditions. This approach led to a reduction of the percentage error of Hs from 14% to less than 8% for extreme waves, while also improving the RMSE.

  3. Extremely stable piezo mechanisms for the New Gravitational Wave Observatory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pijnenburg, J.A.C.M.; Rijnveld, N.; Hogenhuis, H.

    2012-01-01

    Detection and observation of gravitational waves requires extreme stability in the frequency range 3e-5 Hz to 1 Hz. NGO/LISA will attain this by creating a giant interferometer in space, based on free floating proof masses in three spacecrafts. To operate NGO/LISA, the following piezo mechanisms are

  4. Identifying Population Vulnerable to Extreme Heat Events in San Jose, California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivera, A. L.

    2016-12-01

    The extreme heat days not only make cities less comfortable for living but also they are associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Mapping studies have demonstrated spatial variability in heat vulnerability. A study conducted between 2000 and 2011 in New York City shows that deaths during heat waves was more likely to occur in black individuals, at home in census tracts which received greater public assistance. This map project intends to portray areas in San Jose California that are vulnerable to extreme heat events. The variables considered to build a vulnerability index are: land surface temperature, vegetated areas (NDVI), and people exposed to these area (population density).

  5. A New Integrated Threshold Selection Methodology for Spatial Forecast Verification of Extreme Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kholodovsky, V.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme weather and climate events such as heavy precipitation, heat waves and strong winds can cause extensive damage to the society in terms of human lives and financial losses. As climate changes, it is important to understand how extreme weather events may change as a result. Climate and statistical models are often independently used to model those phenomena. To better assess performance of the climate models, a variety of spatial forecast verification methods have been developed. However, spatial verification metrics that are widely used in comparing mean states, in most cases, do not have an adequate theoretical justification to benchmark extreme weather events. We proposed a new integrated threshold selection methodology for spatial forecast verification of extreme events that couples existing pattern recognition indices with high threshold choices. This integrated approach has three main steps: 1) dimension reduction; 2) geometric domain mapping; and 3) thresholds clustering. We apply this approach to an observed precipitation dataset over CONUS. The results are evaluated by displaying threshold distribution seasonally, monthly and annually. The method offers user the flexibility of selecting a high threshold that is linked to desired geometrical properties. The proposed high threshold methodology could either complement existing spatial verification methods, where threshold selection is arbitrary, or be directly applicable in extreme value theory.

  6. Diagnosing causes of extreme aerosol optical depth events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernstein, D. N.; Sullivan, R.; Crippa, P.; Thota, A.; Pryor, S. C.

    2017-12-01

    Aerosol burdens and optical properties exhibit substantial spatiotemporal variability, and simulation of current and possible future aerosol burdens and characteristics exhibits relatively high uncertainty due to uncertainties in emission estimates and in chemical and physical processes associated with aerosol formation, dynamics and removal. We report research designed to improve understanding of the causes and characteristics of extreme aerosol optical depth (AOD) at the regional scale, and diagnose and attribute model skill in simulating these events. Extreme AOD events over the US Midwest are selected by identifying all dates on which AOD in a MERRA-2 reanalysis grid cell exceeds the local seasonally computed 90th percentile (p90) value during 2004-2016 and then finding the dates on which the highest number of grid cells exceed their local p90. MODIS AOD data are subsequently used to exclude events dominated by wildfires. MERRA-2 data are also analyzed within a synoptic classification to determine in what ways the extreme AOD events are atypical and to identify possible meteorological `finger-prints' that can be detected in regional climate model simulations of future climate states to project possible changes in the occurrence of extreme AOD. Then WRF-Chem v3.6 is applied at 12-km resolution and regridded to the MERRA-2 resolution over eastern North America to quantify model performance, and also evaluated using in situ measurements of columnar AOD (AERONET) and near-surface PM2.5 (US EPA). Finally the sensitivity to (i) spin-up time (including procedure used to spin-up the chemistry), (ii) modal versus sectional aerosol schemes, (iii) meteorological nudging, (iv) chemistry initial and boundary conditions, and (v) anthropogenic emissions is quantified. Despite recent declines in mean AOD, supraregional (> 1000 km) extreme AOD events continue to occur. During these events AOD exceeds 0.6 in many Midwestern grid cells for multiple consecutive days. In all

  7. High resolution modelling of extreme precipitation events in urban areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siemerink, Martijn; Volp, Nicolette; Schuurmans, Wytze; Deckers, Dave

    2015-04-01

    The present day society needs to adjust to the effects of climate change. More extreme weather conditions are expected, which can lead to longer periods of drought, but also to more extreme precipitation events. Urban water systems are not designed for such extreme events. Most sewer systems are not able to drain the excessive storm water, causing urban flooding. This leads to high economic damage. In order to take appropriate measures against extreme urban storms, detailed knowledge about the behaviour of the urban water system above and below the streets is required. To investigate the behaviour of urban water systems during extreme precipitation events new assessment tools are necessary. These tools should provide a detailed and integral description of the flow in the full domain of overland runoff, sewer flow, surface water flow and groundwater flow. We developed a new assessment tool, called 3Di, which provides detailed insight in the urban water system. This tool is based on a new numerical methodology that can accurately deal with the interaction between overland runoff, sewer flow and surface water flow. A one-dimensional model for the sewer system and open channel flow is fully coupled to a two-dimensional depth-averaged model that simulates the overland flow. The tool uses a subgrid-based approach in order to take high resolution information of the sewer system and of the terrain into account [1, 2]. The combination of using the high resolution information and the subgrid based approach results in an accurate and efficient modelling tool. It is now possible to simulate entire urban water systems using extreme high resolution (0.5m x 0.5m) terrain data in combination with a detailed sewer and surface water network representation. The new tool has been tested in several Dutch cities, such as Rotterdam, Amsterdam and The Hague. We will present the results of an extreme precipitation event in the city of Schiedam (The Netherlands). This city deals with

  8. Can Concentration - Discharge Relationships Diagnose Material Source During Extreme Events?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karwan, D. L.; Godsey, S.; Rose, L.

    2017-12-01

    Floods can carry >90% of the basin material exported in a given year as well as alter flow pathways and material sources. In turn, sediment and solute fluxes can increase flood damages and negatively impact water quality and integrate physical and chemical weathering of landscapes and channels. Concentration-discharge (C-Q) relationships are used to both describe export patterns as well as compute them. Metrics for describing C-Q patterns and inferring their controls are vulnerable to infrequent sampling that affects how C-Q relationships are interpolated and interpreted. C-Q relationships are typically evaluated from multiple samples, but because hydrological extremes are rare, data are often unavailable for extreme events. Because solute and sediment C-Q relationships likely respond to changes in hydrologic extremes in different ways, there is a pressing need to define their behavior under extreme conditions, including how to properly sample to capture these patterns. In the absence of such knowledge, improving load estimates in extreme floods will likely remain difficult. Here we explore the use of C-Q relationships to determine when an event alters a watershed system such that it enters a new material source/transport regime. We focus on watersheds with sediment and discharge time series include low-frequency and/or extreme events. For example, we compare solute and sediment patterns in White Clay Creek in southeastern Pennsylvania across a range of flows inclusive of multiple hurricanes for which we have ample ancillary hydrochemical data. TSS is consistently mobilized during high flow events, even during extreme floods associated with hurricanes, and sediment fingerprinting indicates different sediment sources, including in-channel remobilization and landscape erosion, are active at different times. In other words, TSS mobilization in C-Q space is not sensitive to the source of material being mobilized. Unlike sediments, weathering solutes in this watershed

  9. Temporal variation of extreme precipitation events in Lithuania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Egidijus Rimkus

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Heavy precipitation events in Lithuania for the period 1961-2008 were analysed. The spatial distribution and dynamics of precipitation extremes were investigated. Positive tendencies and in some cases statistically significant trends were determined for the whole of Lithuania. Atmospheric circulation processes were derived using Hess & Brezowski's classification of macrocirculation forms. More than one third of heavy precipitation events (37% were observed when the atmospheric circulation was zonal. The location of the central part of a cyclone (WZ weather condition subtype over Lithuania is the most common synoptic situation (27% during heavy precipitation events. Climatic projections according to outputs of the CCLM model are also presented in this research. The analysis shows that the recurrence of heavy precipitation events in the 21st century will increase significantly (by up to 22% in Lithuania.

  10. The 2010 Pakistan Flood and the Russia Heat Wave: Teleconnection of Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K.; Kim, K. M.

    2010-01-01

    The Pakistan flood and the Russia heat wave/Vvild fires of the summer of2010 were two of the most extreme, and catastrophic events in the histories of the two countries occurring at about the same time. To a casual observer, the timing may just be a random coincidence of nature, because the two events were separated by long distances, and represented opposite forces of nature, i.e., flood vs. drought, and water vs. fire. In this paper, using NASA satellite and NOAA reanalysis data, we presented observation evidences that that the two events were indeed physically connected.

  11. Application of the Most Likely Extreme Response Method for Wave Energy Converters: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Quon, Eliot; Platt, Andrew; Yu, Yi-Hsiang; Lawson, Michael

    2016-07-01

    Extreme loads are often a key cost driver for wave energy converters (WECs). As an alternative to exhaustive Monte Carlo or long-term simulations, the most likely extreme response (MLER) method allows mid- and high-fidelity simulations to be used more efficiently in evaluating WEC response to events at the edges of the design envelope, and is therefore applicable to system design analysis. The study discussed in this paper applies the MLER method to investigate the maximum heave, pitch, and surge force of a point absorber WEC. Most likely extreme waves were obtained from a set of wave statistics data based on spectral analysis and the response amplitude operators (RAOs) of the floating body; the RAOs were computed from a simple radiation-and-diffraction-theory-based numerical model. A weakly nonlinear numerical method and a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) method were then applied to compute the short-term response to the MLER wave. Effects of nonlinear wave and floating body interaction on the WEC under the anticipated 100-year waves were examined by comparing the results from the linearly superimposed RAOs, the weakly nonlinear model, and CFD simulations. Overall, the MLER method was successfully applied. In particular, when coupled to a high-fidelity CFD analysis, the nonlinear fluid dynamics can be readily captured.

  12. A Metastatistical Approach to Satellite Estimates of Extreme Rainfall Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zorzetto, E.; Marani, M.

    2017-12-01

    The estimation of the average recurrence interval of intense rainfall events is a central issue for both hydrologic modeling and engineering design. These estimates require the inference of the properties of the right tail of the statistical distribution of precipitation, a task often performed using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, estimated either from a samples of annual maxima (AM) or with a peaks over threshold (POT) approach. However, these approaches require long and homogeneous rainfall records, which often are not available, especially in the case of remote-sensed rainfall datasets. We use here, and tailor it to remotely-sensed rainfall estimates, an alternative approach, based on the metastatistical extreme value distribution (MEVD), which produces estimates of rainfall extreme values based on the probability distribution function (pdf) of all measured `ordinary' rainfall event. This methodology also accounts for the interannual variations observed in the pdf of daily rainfall by integrating over the sample space of its random parameters. We illustrate the application of this framework to the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis rainfall dataset, where MEVD optimally exploits the relatively short datasets of satellite-sensed rainfall, while taking full advantage of its high spatial resolution and quasi-global coverage. Accuracy of TRMM precipitation estimates and scale issues are here investigated for a case study located in the Little Washita watershed, Oklahoma, using a dense network of rain gauges for independent ground validation. The methodology contributes to our understanding of the risk of extreme rainfall events, as it allows i) an optimal use of the TRMM datasets in estimating the tail of the probability distribution of daily rainfall, and ii) a global mapping of daily rainfall extremes and distributional tail properties, bridging the existing gaps in rain gauges networks.

  13. Extreme sea-level events in coastal regions

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Unnikrishnan, A.S.

    that the outcome of the project has been a code that is capable of predicting correct trends more often (15 out of 20) than the other ‘black box’ codes in operation at various agencies. U. N. SINHA CSIR-Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer... of the extreme climate events. Their past trends, future projections and vulnerabi- lity and adaptation to such events are discussed in the report. The report was based on the efforts of both the working groups of the IPCC, WG I, which deals with the science...

  14. Adaptation to extreme climate events at a regional scale

    OpenAIRE

    Hoffmann, Christin

    2017-01-01

    A significant increase of the frequency, the intensity and the duration of extreme climate events in Switzerland induces the need to find a strategy to deal with the damages they cause. For more than two decades, mitigation has been the main objective of climate policy. However, due to already high atmospheric carbon concentrations and the inertia of the climate system, climate change is unavoidable to some degree, even if today’s emissions were almost completely cut back. Along with the high...

  15. Exploring regional stakeholder needs and requirements in terms of Extreme Weather Event Attribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwab, M.; Meinke, I.; Vanderlinden, J. P.; Touili, N.; Von Storch, H.

    2015-12-01

    Extreme event attribution has increasingly received attention in the scientific community. It may also serve decision-making at the regional level where much of the climate change impact mitigation takes place. Nevertheless, there is, to date, little known about the requirements of regional actors in terms of extreme event attribution. We have therefore analysed these at the example of regional decision-makers for climate change-related activities and/or concerned with storm surge risks at the German Baltic Sea and heat wave risks in the Greater Paris area. In order to explore if stakeholders find scientific knowledge from extreme event attribution useful and how this information might be relevant to their decision-making, we consulted a diverse set of actors engaged in the assessment, mitigation and communication of storm surge, heat wave, and climate change-related risks. Extreme event attribution knowledge was perceived to be most useful to public and political awareness-raising, but was of little or no relevance for the consulted stakeholders themselves. It was not acknowledged that it would support adaptation planning as sometimes argued in the literature. The consulted coastal protection, health, and urban adaptation planners rather needed reliable statements about possible future changes in extreme events than causal statements about past events. To enhance salience, a suitable product of event attribution should be linked to regional problems, vulnerabilities, and impacts of climate change. Given that the tolerance of uncertainty is rather low, most of the stakeholders also claimed that a suitable product of event attribution is to be received from a trusted "honest broker" and published rather later, but with smaller uncertainties than vice versa. Institutional mechanisms, like regional climate services, which enable and foster communication, translation and mediation across the boundaries between knowledge and action can help fulfill such requirements

  16. Extreme waves from tropical cyclones and climate change in the Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Appendini, Christian M.; Pedrozo-Acuña, Adrian; Meza-Padilla, Rafael; Torres-Freyermuth, Alec; Cerezo-Mota, Ruth; López-González, José

    2017-04-01

    Tropical cyclones generate extreme waves that represent a risk to infrastructure and maritime activities. The projection of the tropical cyclones derived wave climate are challenged by the short historical record of tropical cyclones, their low occurrence, and the poor wind field resolution in General Circulation Models. In this study we use synthetic tropical cyclones to overcome such limitations and be able to characterize present and future wave climate associated with tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico. Synthetic events derived from the NCEP/NCAR atmospheric reanalysis and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models NOAA/GFDL CM3 and UK Met Office HADGEM2-ES, were used to force a third generation wave model to characterize the present and future wave climate under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 escenarios. An increase in wave activity is projected for the future climate, particularly for the GFDL model that shows less bias in the present climate, although some areas are expected to decrease the wave energy. The practical implications of determining the future wave climate is exemplified by means of the 100-year design wave, where the use of the present climate may result in under/over design of structures, since the lifespan of a structure includes the future wave climate period.

  17. Mode Conversion of a Solar Extreme-ultraviolet Wave over a Coronal Cavity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zong, Weiguo [Key Laboratory of Space Weather, National Center for Space Weather, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081 (China); Dai, Yu, E-mail: ydai@nju.edu.cn [Key Laboratory of Modern Astronomy and Astrophysics (Nanjing University), Ministry of Education, Nanjing 210023 (China)

    2017-01-10

    We report on observations of an extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) wave event in the Sun on 2011 January 13 by Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory and Solar Dynamics Observatory in quadrature. Both the trailing edge and the leading edge of the EUV wave front in the north direction are reliably traced, revealing generally compatible propagation velocities in both perspectives and a velocity ratio of about 1/3. When the wave front encounters a coronal cavity near the northern polar coronal hole, the trailing edge of the front stops while its leading edge just shows a small gap and extends over the cavity, meanwhile getting significantly decelerated but intensified. We propose that the trailing edge and the leading edge of the northward propagating wave front correspond to a non-wave coronal mass ejection component and a fast-mode magnetohydrodynamic wave component, respectively. The interaction of the fast-mode wave and the coronal cavity may involve a mode conversion process, through which part of the fast-mode wave is converted to a slow-mode wave that is trapped along the magnetic field lines. This scenario can reasonably account for the unusual behavior of the wave front over the coronal cavity.

  18. Extreme coastal erosion enhanced by anomalous extratropical storm wave direction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harley, Mitchell D; Turner, Ian L; Kinsela, Michael A; Middleton, Jason H; Mumford, Peter J; Splinter, Kristen D; Phillips, Matthew S; Simmons, Joshua A; Hanslow, David J; Short, Andrew D

    2017-07-20

    Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are the primary driver of large-scale episodic beach erosion along coastlines in temperate regions. However, key drivers of the magnitude and regional variability in rapid morphological changes caused by ETCs at the coast remain poorly understood. Here we analyze an unprecedented dataset of high-resolution regional-scale morphological response to an ETC that impacted southeast Australia, and evaluate the new observations within the context of an existing long-term coastal monitoring program. This ETC was characterized by moderate intensity (for this regional setting) deepwater wave heights, but an anomalous wave direction approximately 45 degrees more counter-clockwise than average. The magnitude of measured beach volume change was the largest in four decades at the long-term monitoring site and, at the regional scale, commensurate with that observed due to extreme North Atlantic hurricanes. Spatial variability in morphological response across the study region was predominantly controlled by alongshore gradients in storm wave energy flux and local coastline alignment relative to storm wave direction. We attribute the severity of coastal erosion observed due to this ETC primarily to its anomalous wave direction, and call for greater research on the impacts of changing storm wave directionality in addition to projected future changes in wave heights.

  19. Attributing anthropogenic impact on regional heat wave events using CAM5 model large ensemble simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, S. H.; Chen, C. T.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme heat waves have serious impacts on society. It was argued that the anthropogenic forcing might substantially increase the risk of extreme heat wave events (e.g. over western Europe in 2003 and over Russia in 2010). However, the regional dependence of such anthropogenic impact and the sensitivity of the attributed risk to the definition of heat wave still require further studies. In our research framework, the change in the frequency and severity of a heat wave event under current conditions is calculated and compared with the probability and magnitude of the event if the effects of particular external forcing, such as due to human influence, had been absent. In our research, we use the CAM5 large ensemble simulation from the CLIVAR C20C+ Detection and Attribution project (http://portal.nersc.gov/c20c/main.html, Folland et al. 2014) to detect the heat wave events occurred in both historical all forcing run and natural forcing only run. The heat wave events are identified by partial duration series method (Huth et al., 2000). We test the sensitivity of heat wave thresholds from daily maximum temperature (Tmax) in warm season (from May to September) between 1959 and 2013. We consider the anthropogenic effect on the later period (2000-2013) when the warming due to human impact is more evident. Using Taiwan and surrounding area as our preliminary research target, We found the anthropogenic effect will increase the heat wave day per year from 30 days to 75 days and make the mean starting(ending) day for heat waves events about 15-30 days earlier(later). Using the Fraction of Attribution Risk analysis to estimate the risk of frequency of heat wave day, our results show the anthropogenic forcing very likely increase the heat wave days over Taiwan by more than 50%. Further regional differences and sensitivity of the attributed risk to the definition of heat wave will be compared and discussed.

  20. Water shortages and extreme events: a call for research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carmichael, Catriona; Odams, Sue; Murray, Virginia; Sellick, Matthew; Colbourne, Jeni

    2013-09-01

    Water shortages as a result of extreme weather events, such as flooding and severe cold, have the potential to affect significant numbers of people. Therefore, the need to build robust, coordinated plans based on scientific evidence is crucial. The literature review outlined in this short communication was conducted as part of a joint Drinking Water Inspectorate and Health Protection Agency (now Public Health England) report which aimed to review the scientific evidence base on extreme events, water shortages and the resulting health impacts. A systematic literature review was undertaken to identify published literature from both peer-reviewed and grey literature sources. The retrieved literature was then assessed using the Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network quality assessment. The authors found very few scientific studies. However, a great deal of valuable grey literature was retrieved and used by the research team. In total, six main themes of importance that were identified by the review and discussed included health impacts, water quantity and quality, alternative supplies, vulnerable groups, communication with those affected and the emergency response. The authors conclude that more research needs to be conducted on health impacts and extreme events water shortages in order to build the future knowledge base and development of resilience.

  1. Satellite-Enhanced Dynamical Downscaling of Extreme Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunes, A.

    2015-12-01

    Severe weather events can be the triggers of environmental disasters in regions particularly susceptible to changes in hydrometeorological conditions. In that regard, the reconstruction of past extreme weather events can help in the assessment of vulnerability and risk mitigation actions. Using novel modeling approaches, dynamical downscaling of long-term integrations from global circulation models can be useful for risk analysis, providing more accurate climate information at regional scales. Originally developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the Regional Spectral Model (RSM) is being used in the dynamical downscaling of global reanalysis, within the South American Hydroclimate Reconstruction Project. Here, RSM combines scale-selective bias correction with assimilation of satellite-based precipitation estimates to downscale extreme weather occurrences. Scale-selective bias correction is a method employed in the downscaling, similar to the spectral nudging technique, in which the downscaled solution develops in agreement with its coarse boundaries. Precipitation assimilation acts on modeled deep-convection, drives the land-surface variables, and therefore the hydrological cycle. During the downscaling of extreme events that took place in Brazil in recent years, RSM continuously assimilated NCEP Climate Prediction Center morphing technique precipitation rates. As a result, RSM performed better than its global (reanalysis) forcing, showing more consistent hydrometeorological fields compared with more sophisticated global reanalyses. Ultimately, RSM analyses might provide better-quality initial conditions for high-resolution numerical predictions in metropolitan areas, leading to more reliable short-term forecasting of severe local storms.

  2. Distributing urban resilience to extreme precipitation events with green infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montalto, F. A.; Catalano De Sousa, M.; Yu, Z.

    2013-12-01

    New urban green spaces are being designed to manage stormwater, but their performance in a changing climate is untested. Key questions pertain to the ability of these systems to mitigate flood and sewer overflow concerns during impact of extreme events on, and to withstand (biologically and physically) increased frequency and intensity of drought and flood conditions. In this presentation, we present field data characterizing performance of a bioretention area, a stormwater treatment wetland, and a green roof under Hurricane Irene (2011), Superstorm Sandy (2012), and a variety of extreme precipitation events during the summer of 2013. Specifically, we characterize the fate and volume of incident runon and/or precipitation to the facilities during these extreme events, and compare them to long term monitored performance metrics. We also present laboratory test results documenting how vegetation in these facilities stands up to simulated flood and drought conditions. The results are discussed in the context of predicted climate change, specifically associated with the amount and timing of precipitation.

  3. Triggering extreme events at the nanoscale in photonic seas

    KAUST Repository

    Liu, Changxu; Van Der Wel, Ruben E C; Rotenberg, Nir; Kuipers, Laurens Kobus; Krauss, T. F.; Di Falco, Andrea; Fratalocchi, Andrea

    2015-01-01

    Hurricanes, tsunamis, rogue waves and tornadoes are rare natural phenomena that embed an exceptionally large amount of energy, which appears and quickly disappears in a probabilistic fashion. This makes them difficult to predict and hard to generate on demand. Here we demonstrate that we can trigger the onset of rare events akin to rogue waves controllably, and systematically use their generation to break the diffraction limit of light propagation. We illustrate this phenomenon in the case of a random field, where energy oscillates among incoherent degrees of freedom. Despite the low energy carried by each wave, we illustrate how to control a mechanism of spontaneous synchronization, which constructively builds up the spectral energy available in the whole bandwidth of the field into giant structures, whose statistics is predictable. The larger the frequency bandwidth of the random field, the larger the amplitude of rare events that are built up by this mechanism. Our system is composed of an integrated optical resonator, realized on a photonic crystal chip. Through near-field imaging experiments, we record confined rogue waves characterized by a spatial localization of 206 nm and with an ultrashort duration of 163 fs at a wavelength of 1.55 μm. Such localized energy patterns are formed in a deterministic dielectric structure that does not require nonlinear properties.

  4. Triggering extreme events at the nanoscale in photonic seas

    KAUST Repository

    Liu, Changxu

    2015-03-09

    Hurricanes, tsunamis, rogue waves and tornadoes are rare natural phenomena that embed an exceptionally large amount of energy, which appears and quickly disappears in a probabilistic fashion. This makes them difficult to predict and hard to generate on demand. Here we demonstrate that we can trigger the onset of rare events akin to rogue waves controllably, and systematically use their generation to break the diffraction limit of light propagation. We illustrate this phenomenon in the case of a random field, where energy oscillates among incoherent degrees of freedom. Despite the low energy carried by each wave, we illustrate how to control a mechanism of spontaneous synchronization, which constructively builds up the spectral energy available in the whole bandwidth of the field into giant structures, whose statistics is predictable. The larger the frequency bandwidth of the random field, the larger the amplitude of rare events that are built up by this mechanism. Our system is composed of an integrated optical resonator, realized on a photonic crystal chip. Through near-field imaging experiments, we record confined rogue waves characterized by a spatial localization of 206 nm and with an ultrashort duration of 163 fs at a wavelength of 1.55 μm. Such localized energy patterns are formed in a deterministic dielectric structure that does not require nonlinear properties.

  5. Autochthonous Chikungunya Transmission and Extreme Climate Events in Southern France.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roiz, David; Boussès, Philippe; Simard, Frédéric; Paupy, Christophe; Fontenille, Didier

    2015-06-01

    Extreme precipitation events are increasing as a result of ongoing global warming, but controversy surrounds the relationship between flooding and mosquito-borne diseases. A common view among the scientific community and public health officers is that heavy rainfalls have a flushing effect on breeding sites, which negatively affects vector populations, thereby diminishing disease transmission. During 2014 in Montpellier, France, there were at least 11 autochthonous cases of chikungunya caused by the invasive tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus in the vicinity of an imported case. We show that an extreme rainfall event increased and extended the abundance of the disease vector Ae. albopictus, hence the period of autochthonous transmission of chikungunya. We report results from close monitoring of the adult and egg population of the chikungunya vector Ae. albopictus through weekly sampling over the entire mosquito breeding season, which revealed an unexpected pattern. Statistical analysis of the seasonal dynamics of female abundance in relation to climatic factors showed that these relationships changed after the heavy rainfall event. Before the inundations, accumulated temperatures are the most important variable predicting Ae. albopictus seasonal dynamics. However, after the inundations, accumulated rainfall over the 4 weeks prior to capture predicts the seasonal dynamics of this species and extension of the transmission period. Our empirical data suggests that heavy rainfall events did increase the risk of arbovirus transmission in Southern France in 2014 by favouring a rapid rise in abundance of vector mosquitoes. Further studies should now confirm these results in different ecological contexts, so that the impact of global change and extreme climatic events on mosquito population dynamics and the risk of disease transmission can be adequately understood.

  6. Climate Extreme Events over Northern Eurasia in Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bulygina, O.; Korshunova, N. N.; Razuvaev, V. N.; Groisman, P. Y.

    2014-12-01

    During the period of widespread instrumental observations in Northern Eurasia, the annual surface air temperature has increased by 1.5°C. Close to the north in the Arctic Ocean, the late summer sea ice extent has decreased by 40% providing a near-infinite source of water vapor for the dry Arctic atmosphere in the early cold season months. The contemporary sea ice changes are especially visible in the Eastern Hemisphere All these factors affect the change extreme events. Daily and sub-daily data of 940 stations to analyze variations in the space time distribution of extreme temperatures, precipitation, and wind over Russia were used. Changing in number of days with thaw over Russia was described. The total seasonal numbers of days, when daily surface air temperatures (wind, precipitation) were found to be above (below) selected thresholds, were used as indices of climate extremes. Changing in difference between maximum and minimum temperature (DTR) may produce a variety of effects on biological systems. All values falling within the intervals ranged from the lowest percentile to the 5th percentile and from the 95th percentile to the highest percentile for the time period of interest were considered as daily extremes. The number of days, N, when daily temperatures (wind, precipitation, DTR) were within the above mentioned intervals, was determined for the seasons of each year. Linear trends in the number of days were calculated for each station and for quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. Regional analysis of extreme events was carried out using quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. Maps (climatology, trends) are presented mostly for visualization purposes. Differences in regional characteristics of extreme events are accounted for over a large extent of the Russian territory and variety of its physical and geographical conditions. The number of days with maximum temperatures higher than the 95% percentile has increased in most of Russia and decreased in Siberia in

  7. Understanding extreme rainfall events in Australia through historical data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashcroft, Linden; Karoly, David John

    2016-04-01

    Historical climate data recovery is still an emerging field in the Australian region. The majority of Australia's instrumental climate analyses begin in 1900 for rainfall and 1910 for temperature, particularly those focussed on extreme event analysis. This data sparsity for the past in turn limits our understanding of long-term climate variability, constraining efforts to predict the impact of future climate change. To address this need for improved historical data in Australia, a new network of recovered climate observations has recently been developed, centred on the highly populated southeastern Australian region (Ashcroft et al., 2014a, 2014b). The dataset includes observations from more than 39 published and unpublished sources and extends from British settlement in 1788 to the formation of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology in 1908. Many of these historical sources provide daily temperature and rainfall information, providing an opportunity to improve understanding of the multidecadal variability of Australia's extreme events. In this study we combine the historical data for three major Australian cities - Melbourne, Sydney and Adelaide - with modern observations to examine extreme rainfall variability over the past 174 years (1839-2013). We first explore two case studies, combining instrumental and documentary evidence to support the occurrence of severe storms in Sydney in 1841 and 1844. These events appear to be at least as extreme as Sydney's modern 24-hour rainfall record. Next we use a suite of rainfall indices to assess the long-term variability of rainfall in southeastern Australia. In particular, we focus on the stationarity of the teleconnection between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and extreme rainfall events. Using ENSO reconstructions derived from both palaeoclimatic and documentary sources, we determine the historical relationship between extreme rainfall in southeastern Australia and ENSO, and examine whether or not this

  8. Description of extreme-wave deposits on the northern coast of Bonaire, Netherlands Antilles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watt, Steven G.; Jaffe, Bruce E.; Morton, Robert A.; Richmond, Bruce M.; Gelfencaum, Guy

    2010-01-01

    To develop a better understanding of the origins of extreme-wave deposits and to help assess the potential risk of future overwash events, a field mapping survey was conducted in November 2006 on the northern coast of Bonaire, Netherlands Antilles. Deposits were mapped and analyzed to help develop a systematic sedimentological approach to distinguish the type of extreme-wave event (tsunamis or storms) or combination of events that formed and modified the deposits over time. Extreme-wave deposits on the northern coast of Bonaire between Boka Onima and Boka Olivia have formed sand sheets, poly-modal ridge complexes, and boulder fields on a Pleistocene limestone platform 3?8 meters above sea level. The deposits exhibit characteristics that are consistent with both large storm and tsunami processes that often overlap one another. Sand sheets occur as low-relief features underlying and incorporated with boulder field deposits. The seaward edge of ridge complexes are deposited up to 70 m from the shoreline and can extend over 200 m inland. Over 600 clasts were measured in fields and range in size from coarse gravel to fine block, weigh up to 165 metric tons, and are placed over 280 m from the shoreline. Our analyses indicate that the deposits may have been produced by a combination of hurricane and tsunami events spanning 10s to 1000s of years. Comparing the different deposit morphologies between study sites highlights the importance of shoreline orientation to the distribution of extreme-wave deposits onshore. However, further investigation is required to fully understand the processes that have produced and modified these deposits over time.

  9. Impacts of extreme weather events on transport infrastructure in Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frauenfelder, Regula; Solheim, Anders; Isaksen, Ketil; Romstad, Bård; Dyrrdal, Anita V.; Ekseth, Kristine H. H.; Gangstø Skaland, Reidun; Harbitz, Alf; Harbitz, Carl B.; Haugen, Jan E.; Hygen, Hans O.; Haakenstad, Hilde; Jaedicke, Christian; Jónsson, Árni; Klæboe, Ronny; Ludvigsen, Johanna; Meyer, Nele K.; Rauken, Trude; Sverdrup-Thygeson, Kjetil

    2016-04-01

    With the latest results on expected future increase in air temperature and precipitation changes reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the climate robustness of important infrastructure is of raising concern in Norway, as well as in the rest of Europe. Economic consequences of natural disasters have increased considerably since 1950. In addition to the effect of demographic changes such as population growth, urbanization and more and more concentration of valuable assets, this increase is also related to an augmenting frequency of extreme events, such as storms, flooding, drought, and landslides. This change is also observable in Norway, where the increased frequency of strong precipitation has led to frequent flooding and landslide events during the last 20 years. A number of studies show that climate change causes an increase in both frequency and intensity of several types of extreme weather, especially when it comes to precipitation. Such extreme weather events greatly affect the transport infrastructure, with numerous and long closures of roads and railroads, in addition to damage and repair costs. Frequent closures of railroad and roads lead to delay or failure in delivery of goods, which again may lead to a loss of customers and/or - eventually - markets. Much of the Norwegian transport infrastructure is more than 50 years old and therefore not adequately dimensioned, even for present climatic conditions. In order to assess these problems and challenges posed to the Norwegian transport infrastructure from present-day and future extreme weather events, the project "Impacts of extreme weather events on infrastructure in Norway (InfraRisk)" was performed under the research Council of Norway program 'NORKLIMA', between 2009 and 2013. The main results of the project are: - Moderate to strong precipitation events have become more frequent and more intense in Norway over the last 50 years, and this trend continues throughout the 21st

  10. Nonlinear wave-mixing processes in the extreme ultraviolet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Misoguti, L.; Christov, I. P.; Backus, S.; Murnane, M. M.; Kapteyn, H. C.

    2005-01-01

    We present data from two-color high-order harmonic generation in a hollow waveguide, that suggest the presence of a nonlinear-optical frequency conversion process driven by extreme ultraviolet light. By combining the fundamental and second harmonic of an 800 nm laser in a hollow-core fiber, with varying relative polarizations, and by observing the pressure and power scaling of the various harmonic orders, we show that the data are consistent with a picture where we drive the process of high-harmonic generation, which in turn drives four-wave frequency mixing processes in the extreme EUV. This work promises a method for extending nonlinear optics into the extreme ultraviolet region of the spectrum using an approach that has not previously been considered, and has compelling implications for generating tunable light at short wavelengths

  11. Financial market response to extreme events indicating climatic change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anttila-Hughes, J. K.

    2016-05-01

    A variety of recent extreme climatic events are considered to be strong evidence that the climate is warming, but these incremental advances in certainty often seem ignored by non-scientists. I identify two unusual types of events that are considered to be evidence of climate change, announcements by NASA that the global annual average temperature has set a new record, and the sudden collapse of major polar ice shelves, and then conduct an event study to test whether news of these events changes investors' valuation of energy companies, a subset of firms whose future performance is closely tied to climate change. I find evidence that both classes of events have influenced energy stock prices since the 1990s, with record temperature announcements on average associated with negative returns and ice shelf collapses associated with positive returns. I identify a variety of plausible mechanisms that may be driving these differential responses, discuss implications for energy markets' views on long-term regulatory risk, and conclude that investors not only pay attention to scientifically significant climate events, but discriminate between signals carrying different information about the nature of climatic change.

  12. Intraoperative adverse events associated with extremely preterm cesarean deliveries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertholdt, Charline; Menard, Sophie; Delorme, Pierre; Lamau, Marie-Charlotte; Goffinet, François; Le Ray, Camille

    2018-05-01

    At the same time as survival is increasing among premature babies born before 26 weeks of gestation, the rates of cesarean deliveries before 26 weeks is also rising. Our purpose was to compare the frequency of intraoperative adverse events during cesarean deliveries in two gestational age groups: 24-25 weeks and 26-27 weeks. This single-center retrospective cohort study included all women with cesarean deliveries performed before 28 +0 weeks from 2007 through 2015. It compared the frequency of intraoperative adverse events between two groups: those at 24-25 weeks of gestation and at 26-27 weeks. Intraoperative adverse events were a classical incision, transplacental incision, difficulty in fetal extraction (explicitly mentioned in the surgical report), postpartum hemorrhage (≥500 mL of blood loss), and injury to internal organs. A composite outcome including at least one of these events enabled us to analyze the risk factors for intraoperative adverse events with univariate and multivariable analysis. Stratified analyses by the indication for the cesarean were performed. We compared 74 cesarean deliveries at 24-25 weeks of gestation and 214 at 26-27 weeks. Intraoperative adverse events occurred at higher rates in the 24-25-week group (63.5 vs. 30.8%, p cesarean. These results should help obstetricians and women making decisions about cesarean deliveries at these extremely low gestational ages. © 2018 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

  13. Extreme Drought Events Revealed in Amazon Tree Ring Records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, H. S.; Baker, P. A.; Guilderson, T. P.

    2010-12-01

    The Amazon basin is a center of deep atmospheric convection and thus acts as a major engine for global hydrologic circulation. Yet despite its significance, a full understanding of Amazon rainfall variability remains elusive due to a poor historical record of climate. Temperate tree rings have been used extensively to reconstruct climate over the last thousand years, however less attention has been given to the application of dendrochronology in tropical regions, in large part due to a lower frequency of tree species known to produce annual rings. Here we present a tree ring record of drought extremes from the Madre de Dios region of southeastern Peru over the last 190 years. We confirm that tree ring growth in species Cedrela odorata is annual and show it to be well correlated with wet season precipitation. This correlation is used to identify extreme dry (and wet) events that have occurred in the past. We focus on drought events identified in the record as drought frequency is expected to increase over the Amazon in a warming climate. The Cedrela chronology records historic Amazon droughts of the 20th century previously identified in the literature and extends the record of drought for this region to the year 1816. Our analysis shows that there has been an increase in the frequency of extreme drought (mean recurrence interval = 5-6 years) since the turn of the 20th century and both Atlantic and Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) forcing mechanisms are implicated.

  14. Extreme events in total ozone over Arosa – Part 1: Application of extreme value theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. E. Rieder

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available In this study ideas from extreme value theory are for the first time applied in the field of stratospheric ozone research, because statistical analysis showed that previously used concepts assuming a Gaussian distribution (e.g. fixed deviations from mean values of total ozone data do not adequately address the structure of the extremes. We show that statistical extreme value methods are appropriate to identify ozone extremes and to describe the tails of the Arosa (Switzerland total ozone time series. In order to accommodate the seasonal cycle in total ozone, a daily moving threshold was determined and used, with tools from extreme value theory, to analyse the frequency of days with extreme low (termed ELOs and high (termed EHOs total ozone at Arosa. The analysis shows that the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD provides an appropriate model for the frequency distribution of total ozone above or below a mathematically well-defined threshold, thus providing a statistical description of ELOs and EHOs. The results show an increase in ELOs and a decrease in EHOs during the last decades. The fitted model represents the tails of the total ozone data set with high accuracy over the entire range (including absolute monthly minima and maxima, and enables a precise computation of the frequency distribution of ozone mini-holes (using constant thresholds. Analyzing the tails instead of a small fraction of days below constant thresholds provides deeper insight into the time series properties. Fingerprints of dynamical (e.g. ENSO, NAO and chemical features (e.g. strong polar vortex ozone loss, and major volcanic eruptions, can be identified in the observed frequency of extreme events throughout the time series. Overall the new approach to analysis of extremes provides more information on time series properties and variability than previous approaches that use only monthly averages and/or mini-holes and mini-highs.

  15. The 2010 Pakistan Flood and Russian Heat Wave: Teleconnection of Hydrometeorological Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, preliminary results are presented showing that the two record-setting extreme events during 2010 summer (i.e., the Russian heat wave-wildfires and Pakistan flood) were physically connected. It is found that the Russian heat wave was associated with the development of an extraordinarily strong and prolonged extratropical atmospheric blocking event in association with the excitation of a large-scale atmospheric Rossby wave train spanning western Russia, Kazakhstan, and the northwestern China-Tibetan Plateau region. The southward penetration of upper-level vorticity perturbations in the leading trough of the Rossby wave was instrumental in triggering anomalously heavy rain events over northern Pakistan and vicinity in mid- to late July. Also shown are evidences that the Russian heat wave was amplified by a positive feedback through changes in surface energy fluxes between the atmospheric blocking pattern and an underlying extensive land region with below-normal soil moisture. The Pakistan heavy rain events were amplified and sustained by strong anomalous southeasterly flow along the Himalayan foothills and abundant moisture transport from the Bay of Bengal in connection with the northward propagation of the monsoonal intraseasonal oscillation.

  16. Reproducing an extreme flood with uncertain post-event information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Fuentes-Andino

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Studies for the prevention and mitigation of floods require information on discharge and extent of inundation, commonly unavailable or uncertain, especially during extreme events. This study was initiated by the devastating flood in Tegucigalpa, the capital of Honduras, when Hurricane Mitch struck the city. In this study we hypothesized that it is possible to estimate, in a trustworthy way considering large data uncertainties, this extreme 1998 flood discharge and the extent of the inundations that followed from a combination of models and post-event measured data. Post-event data collected in 2000 and 2001 were used to estimate discharge peaks, times of peak, and high-water marks. These data were used in combination with rain data from two gauges to drive and constrain a combination of well-known modelling tools: TOPMODEL, Muskingum–Cunge–Todini routing, and the LISFLOOD-FP hydraulic model. Simulations were performed within the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE uncertainty-analysis framework. The model combination predicted peak discharge, times of peaks, and more than 90 % of the observed high-water marks within the uncertainty bounds of the evaluation data. This allowed an inundation likelihood map to be produced. Observed high-water marks could not be reproduced at a few locations on the floodplain. Identifications of these locations are useful to improve model set-up, model structure, or post-event data-estimation methods. Rainfall data were of central importance in simulating the times of peak and results would be improved by a better spatial assessment of rainfall, e.g. from radar data or a denser rain-gauge network. Our study demonstrated that it was possible, considering the uncertainty in the post-event data, to reasonably reproduce the extreme Mitch flood in Tegucigalpa in spite of no hydrometric gauging during the event. The method proposed here can be part of a Bayesian framework in which more events

  17. Grid Frequency Extreme Event Analysis and Modeling: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Florita, Anthony R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Clark, Kara [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Gevorgian, Vahan [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Folgueras, Maria [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Wenger, Erin [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-11-01

    Sudden losses of generation or load can lead to instantaneous changes in electric grid frequency and voltage. Extreme frequency events pose a major threat to grid stability. As renewable energy sources supply power to grids in increasing proportions, it becomes increasingly important to examine when and why extreme events occur to prevent destabilization of the grid. To better understand frequency events, including extrema, historic data were analyzed to fit probability distribution functions to various frequency metrics. Results showed that a standard Cauchy distribution fit the difference between the frequency nadir and prefault frequency (f_(C-A)) metric well, a standard Cauchy distribution fit the settling frequency (f_B) metric well, and a standard normal distribution fit the difference between the settling frequency and frequency nadir (f_(B-C)) metric very well. Results were inconclusive for the frequency nadir (f_C) metric, meaning it likely has a more complex distribution than those tested. This probabilistic modeling should facilitate more realistic modeling of grid faults.

  18. DISPELLING ILLUSIONS OF REFLECTION: A NEW ANALYSIS OF THE 2007 MAY 19 CORONAL 'WAVE' EVENT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Attrill, Gemma D. R.

    2010-01-01

    A new analysis of the 2007 May 19 coronal wave-coronal mass ejection-dimmings event is offered employing base difference extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) images. Previous work analyzing the coronal wave associated with this event concluded strongly in favor of purely an MHD wave interpretation for the expanding bright front. This conclusion was based to a significant extent on the identification of multiple reflections of the coronal wave front. The analysis presented here shows that the previously identified 'reflections' are actually optical illusions and result from a misinterpretation of the running difference EUV data. The results of this new multiwavelength analysis indicate that two coronal wave fronts actually developed during the eruption. This new analysis has implications for our understanding of diffuse coronal waves and questions the validity of the analysis and conclusions reached in previous studies.

  19. Investigating extreme event loading on coastal bridges using wireless sensor technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelineau, Douglas A.; Davis, Justin R.; Rice, Jennifer A.

    2017-04-01

    Coastal infrastructure, such as bridges, are susceptible to many forms of coastal hazards: particularly hurricane surge and wave loading. These two forms of loading can cause catastrophic damage to aging highway infrastructure. It is estimated that storm damage costs the United States about $50 Billion per year. In light of this, it is crucial that we understand the damaging forces placed on infrastructure during storm events so that we can develop safer and more resilient coastal structures. This paper presents the ongoing research to enable the efficient collection of extreme event loads acting on both the substructure and superstructure of low clearance, simple span, reinforced concrete bridges. Bridges of this type were commonly constructed during the 1950's and 60's and are particularly susceptible to deck unseating caused by hurricane surge and wave loading. The sensing technology used to capture this data must be ruggedized to survive in an extremely challenging environment, be designed to allow for redundancy in the event of sensors or other network components being lost in the storm, and be relatively low cost to allow for more bridges to be instrumented per storm event. The prototype system described in this paper includes wireless technology, rapid data transmission, and, for the sensors, self-contained power. While this specific application focuses on hurricane hazards, the framework can be extended to include other natural hazards.

  20. An extreme ultraviolet wave associated with a failed eruption observed by the Solar Dynamics Observatory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, R.; Jiang, Y.; Yang, J.; Bi, Y.; Hong, J.; Yang, B.; Yang, D.

    2012-05-01

    Aims: Taking advantage of the high temporal and spatial resolution of the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) observations, we present an extreme ultraviolet (EUV) wave associated with a failed filament eruption that generated no coronal mass ejection (CME) on 2011 March 1. We aim at understanding the nature and origin of this EUV wave. Methods: Combining the high-quality observations in the photosphere, the chromosphere, and the corona, we studied the characteristics of the wave and its relations to the associated eruption. Results: The event occurred at an ephemeral region near a small active region. The continuous magnetic flux cancelation in the ephemeral region produced pre-eruption brightenings and two EUV jets, and excited the filament eruption, accompanying it with a microflare. After the eruption, the filament material appeared far from the eruption center, and the ambient loops seemed to be intact. It was evident that the filament eruption had failed and was not associated with a CME. The wave happened just after the north jet arrived, and apparently emanated ahead of the north jet, far from the eruption center. The wave propagated at nearly constant velocities in the range of 260-350 km s-1, with a slight negative acceleration in the last phase. Remarkably, the wave continued to propagate, and a loop in its passage was intact when wave and loop met. Conclusions: Our analysis confirms that the EUV wave is a true wave, which we interpret as a fast-mode wave. In addition, the close temporal and spatial relationship between the wave and the jet provides evidence that the wave was likely triggered by the jet when the CME failed to happen. Three movies are available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

  1. Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hansen, Brage B; Isaksen, Ketil; Benestad, Rasmus E; Kohler, Jack; Pedersen, Åshild Ø; Loe, Leif E; Coulson, Stephen J; Larsen, Jan Otto; Varpe, Øystein

    2014-01-01

    One predicted consequence of global warming is an increased frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, or heavy rainfalls. In parts of the Arctic, extreme warm spells and heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) events in winter are already more frequent. How these weather events impact snow-pack and permafrost characteristics is rarely documented empirically, and the implications for wildlife and society are hence far from understood. Here we characterize and document the effects of an extreme warm spell and ROS event that occurred in High Arctic Svalbard in January–February 2012, during the polar night. In this normally cold semi-desert environment, we recorded above-zero temperatures (up to 7 °C) across the entire archipelago and record-breaking precipitation, with up to 98 mm rainfall in one day (return period of >500 years prior to this event) and 272 mm over the two-week long warm spell. These precipitation amounts are equivalent to 25 and 70% respectively of the mean annual total precipitation. The extreme event caused significant increase in permafrost temperatures down to at least 5 m depth, induced slush avalanches with resultant damage to infrastructure, and left a significant ground-ice cover (∼5–20 cm thick basal ice). The ground-ice not only affected inhabitants by closing roads and airports as well as reducing mobility and thereby tourism income, but it also led to high starvation-induced mortality in all monitored populations of the wild reindeer by blocking access to the winter food source. Based on empirical-statistical downscaling of global climate models run under the moderate RCP4.5 emission scenario, we predict strong future warming with average mid-winter temperatures even approaching 0 °C, suggesting increased frequency of ROS. This will have far-reaching implications for Arctic ecosystems and societies through the changes in snow-pack and permafrost properties. (letter)

  2. Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Brage B.; Isaksen, Ketil; Benestad, Rasmus E.; Kohler, Jack; Pedersen, Åshild Ø.; Loe, Leif E.; Coulson, Stephen J.; Larsen, Jan Otto; Varpe, Øystein

    2014-11-01

    One predicted consequence of global warming is an increased frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, or heavy rainfalls. In parts of the Arctic, extreme warm spells and heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) events in winter are already more frequent. How these weather events impact snow-pack and permafrost characteristics is rarely documented empirically, and the implications for wildlife and society are hence far from understood. Here we characterize and document the effects of an extreme warm spell and ROS event that occurred in High Arctic Svalbard in January-February 2012, during the polar night. In this normally cold semi-desert environment, we recorded above-zero temperatures (up to 7 °C) across the entire archipelago and record-breaking precipitation, with up to 98 mm rainfall in one day (return period of >500 years prior to this event) and 272 mm over the two-week long warm spell. These precipitation amounts are equivalent to 25 and 70% respectively of the mean annual total precipitation. The extreme event caused significant increase in permafrost temperatures down to at least 5 m depth, induced slush avalanches with resultant damage to infrastructure, and left a significant ground-ice cover (˜5-20 cm thick basal ice). The ground-ice not only affected inhabitants by closing roads and airports as well as reducing mobility and thereby tourism income, but it also led to high starvation-induced mortality in all monitored populations of the wild reindeer by blocking access to the winter food source. Based on empirical-statistical downscaling of global climate models run under the moderate RCP4.5 emission scenario, we predict strong future warming with average mid-winter temperatures even approaching 0 °C, suggesting increased frequency of ROS. This will have far-reaching implications for Arctic ecosystems and societies through the changes in snow-pack and permafrost properties.

  3. Acclimation responses to temperature vary with vertical stratification: implications for vulnerability of soil-dwelling species to extreme temperature events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dooremalen, van C.; Berg, M.P.; Ellers, J.

    2013-01-01

    The occurrence of summer heat waves is predicted to increase in amplitude and frequency in the near future, but the consequences of such extreme events are largely unknown, especially for belowground organisms. Soil organisms usually exhibit strong vertical stratification, resulting in more frequent

  4. Extreme Quantum Memory Advantage for Rare-Event Sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aghamohammadi, Cina; Loomis, Samuel P.; Mahoney, John R.; Crutchfield, James P.

    2018-02-01

    We introduce a quantum algorithm for memory-efficient biased sampling of rare events generated by classical memoryful stochastic processes. Two efficiency metrics are used to compare quantum and classical resources for rare-event sampling. For a fixed stochastic process, the first is the classical-to-quantum ratio of required memory. We show for two example processes that there exists an infinite number of rare-event classes for which the memory ratio for sampling is larger than r , for any large real number r . Then, for a sequence of processes each labeled by an integer size N , we compare how the classical and quantum required memories scale with N . In this setting, since both memories can diverge as N →∞ , the efficiency metric tracks how fast they diverge. An extreme quantum memory advantage exists when the classical memory diverges in the limit N →∞ , but the quantum memory has a finite bound. We then show that finite-state Markov processes and spin chains exhibit memory advantage for sampling of almost all of their rare-event classes.

  5. Extreme Quantum Memory Advantage for Rare-Event Sampling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cina Aghamohammadi

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available We introduce a quantum algorithm for memory-efficient biased sampling of rare events generated by classical memoryful stochastic processes. Two efficiency metrics are used to compare quantum and classical resources for rare-event sampling. For a fixed stochastic process, the first is the classical-to-quantum ratio of required memory. We show for two example processes that there exists an infinite number of rare-event classes for which the memory ratio for sampling is larger than r, for any large real number r. Then, for a sequence of processes each labeled by an integer size N, we compare how the classical and quantum required memories scale with N. In this setting, since both memories can diverge as N→∞, the efficiency metric tracks how fast they diverge. An extreme quantum memory advantage exists when the classical memory diverges in the limit N→∞, but the quantum memory has a finite bound. We then show that finite-state Markov processes and spin chains exhibit memory advantage for sampling of almost all of their rare-event classes.

  6. Spatial vulnerability of Australian urban populations to extreme heat events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loughnan, Margaret; Tapper, Nigel; Phan, Thu; Lynch, Kellie; McInnes, Judith

    2013-04-01

    Extreme heat events pose a risk to the health of all individuals, especially the elderly and the chronically ill, and are associated with an increased demand for healthcare services. In order to address this problem, policy makers' need information about temperatures above which mortality and morbidity of the exposed population is likely to increase, where the vulnerable groups in the community are located, and how the risks from extreme heat events are likely to change in the future. This study identified threshold temperatures for all Australian capital cities, developed a spatial index of population vulnerability, and used climate model output to predict changes in the number of days exceeding temperature thresholds in the future, as well as changes in risk related to changes in urban density and an ageing population. The study has shown that daily maximum and minimum temperatures from the Bureau of Meteorology forecasts can be used to calculate temperature thresholds for heat alert days. The key risk factors related to adverse health outcomes were found to be areas with intense urban heat islands, areas with higher proportions of older people, and areas with ethnic communities. Maps of spatial vulnerability have been developed to provide information to assist emergency managers, healthcare professionals, and ancillary services develop heatwave preparedness plans at a local scale that target vulnerable groups and address heat-related health risks. The numbers of days exceeding current heat thresholds are predicted to increase over the next 20 to 40 years in all Australian capital cities.

  7. Extreme flood events in the Bolivian Amazon wetlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Ovando

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Study region: The Amazonian wetlands of Bolivia, known as the Llanos de Moxos, are believed to play a crucial role in regulating the upper Madeira hydrological cycle, the most important southern tributary of the Amazon River. Because the area is vast and sparsely populated, the hydrological functioning of the wetlands is poorly known. Study focus: We analyzed the hydrometeorological configurations that led to the major floods of 2007, 2008 and 2014. These data, together with flood mapping derived from remote sensing images, were used to understand the dynamics of the Llanos during the three flood events. New hydrological insights for the region: The results showed that large floods are the result of the superimposition of flood waves from major sub-basins of the region. As a previous study suggested, the dynamics of the floods are controlled by an exogenous process, created by the flood wave originating in the Andes piedmont that travels through the Mamoré River; and by an endogenous process, which is the runoff originating in the Llanos. Our study showed that the first process is evident only at the initial phase of the floods, and although important for attenuating the rising flood wave, it is of lesser importance compared to the endogenous process. We conclude that the endogenous process controls the magnitude and duration of major floods. Keywords: Flood dynamics, Wetlands, Remote sensing, Llanos de Moxos

  8. The interaction of extreme waves with hull elements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galiev, Shamil; Flay, Richard

    2010-05-01

    The problem of the impact of a rogue wave onto a deformable marine structure is formulated in a few publications (see, for example, a short review in http://researchspace.auckland.ac.nz/handle/2292/4474). In this paper the results from numerical and experimental investigations of the effect of cavitation on the deformation of a hull element, loaded by a wall of water, generated by an extreme ocean surface wave are considered. The hull element is modelled as a circular metal plate with the edge of the plate rigidly clamped. The plate surface is much smaller than the surface of the wave front, so that at the initial moment of the interaction, the pressure is constant on the plate surface. At the next instant, because of the plate deformation, axisymmetric loading of the plate occurs. The influences of membrane forces and plastic deformations are ignored, and therefore, the equation of plate motion has the following classical form Eh3(wrrrr+2r -1wrrrr- r-2wrr+r-3wr) = - 121- ν2)[ρhwtt+ δ(r,t)(p+ ρ0a0wt)]. Here w is the plate displacement, subscripts t and rindicate derivatives with respect to time and the radial coordinate, PIC is the plate material density, his the plate thickness, Eis Young's modulus, PIC is Poisson's ratio and p is the pressure of the incident surface wave measured on the wall, PIC is the water density, PIC is the speed of sound in water, and PIC is the normal velocity of the plate. The term PIC takes into account the effect of the deformability of the plate. Obviously, the hull of a vessel is not rigid like a solid wall, but starts to deform and to move. This motion produces a reflected pressure wave, which travels from the hull into the water wave with a magnitude equal to PIC . The normal velocity is positive so the reflected pressure PIC is negative (tensile wave). If the fluid pressure drops below some critical value pk, the wet plate surface separates from the water, and cavitation may be generated. The function δ(r,t) takes into account

  9. Extreme events as foundation of Levy walks with varying velocity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kutner, Ryszard

    2002-01-01

    In this work we study the role of extreme events [E.W. Montroll, B.J. West, in: J.L. Lebowitz, E.W. Montrell (Eds.), Fluctuation Phenomena, SSM, vol. VII, North-Holland, Amsterdam, 1979, p. 63; J.-P. Bouchaud, M. Potters, Theory of Financial Risks from Statistical Physics to Risk Management, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2001; D. Sornette, Critical Phenomena in Natural Sciences. Chaos, Fractals, Selforganization and Disorder: Concepts and Tools, Springer, Berlin, 2000] in determining the scaling properties of Levy walks with varying velocity. This model is an extension of the well-known Levy walks one [J. Klafter, G. Zumofen, M.F. Shlesinger, in M.F. Shlesinger, G.M. Zaslavsky, U. Frisch (Eds.), Levy Flights and Related Topics ion Physics, Lecture Notes in Physics, vol. 450, Springer, Berlin, 1995, p. 196; G. Zumofen, J. Klafter, M.F. Shlesinger, in: R. Kutner, A. Pekalski, K. Sznajd-Weron (Eds.), Anomalous Diffusion. From Basics to Applications, Lecture Note in Physics, vol. 519, Springer, Berlin, 1999, p. 15] introduced in the context of chaotic dynamics where a fixed value of the walker velocity is assumed for simplicity. Such an extension seems to be necessary when the open and/or complex system is studied. The model of Levy walks with varying velocity is spanned on two coupled velocity-temporal hierarchies: the first one consisting of velocities and the second of corresponding time intervals which the walker spends between the successive turning points. Both these hierarchical structures are characterized by their own self-similar dimensions. The extreme event, which can appear within a given time interval, is defined as a single random step of the walker having largest length. By finding power-laws which describe the time-dependence of this displacement and its statistics we obtained two independent diffusion exponents, which are related to the above-mentioned dimensions and which characterize the extreme event kinetics. In this work we show the

  10. Extreme weather events in Iran under a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alizadeh-Choobari, Omid; Najafi, M. S.

    2018-01-01

    Observations unequivocally show that Iran has been rapidly warming over recent decades, which in sequence has triggered a wide range of climatic impacts. Meteorological records of several ground stations across Iran with daily temporal resolution for the period 1951-2013 were analyzed to investigate the climate change and its impact on some weather extremes. Iran has warmed by nearly 1.3 °C during the period 1951-2013 (+0.2 °C per decade), with an increase of the minimum temperature at a rate two times that of the maximum. Consequently, an increase in the frequency of heat extremes and a decrease in the frequency of cold extremes have been observed. The annual precipitation has decreased by 8 mm per decade, causing an expansion of Iran's dry zones. Previous studies have pointed out that warming is generally associated with more frequent heavy precipitation because a warmer air can hold more moisture. Nevertheless, warming in Iran has been associated with more frequent light precipitation, but less frequent moderate, heavy and extremely heavy precipitation. This is because in the subtropical dry zones, a longer time is required to recharge the atmosphere with water vapour in a warmer climate, causing more water vapour to be transported from the subtropics to high latitudes before precipitations forms. In addition, the altitude of the condensation level increases in a warmer climate in subtropical regions, causing an overall decrease of precipitation. We argue that changing in the frequency of heavy precipitation in response to warming varies depending on the geographical location. Warming over the dry subtropical regions is associated with a decrease in the frequency of heavy precipitation, while an increase is expected over both subpolar and tropical regions. The warmer climate has also led to the increase in the frequency of both thunderstorms (driven by convective heating) and dust events over Iran.

  11. Extreme Loads on the Mooring Lines and Survivability Mode for the Wave Dragon Wave Energy Converter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Parmeggiani, Stefano; Kofoed, Jens Peter; Friis-Madsen, E.

    2011-01-01

    Dragon aims at optimizing the power production by adapting the floating level to the incoming waves and by activating the hydro-turbines and regulating their working speed. In extreme conditions though, the control strategy could be changed in order to reduce the forces in the mooring system, lowering...

  12. Coastal flooding: impact of waves on storm surge during extremes – a case study for the German Bight

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Staneva

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available This study addresses the impact of wind, waves, tidal forcing and baroclinicity on the sea level of the German Bight during extreme storm events. The role of wave-induced processes, tides and baroclinicity is quantified, and the results are compared with in situ measurements and satellite data. A coupled high-resolution modelling system is used to simulate wind waves, the water level and the three-dimensional hydrodynamics. The models used are the wave model WAM and the circulation model GETM. The two-way coupling is performed via the OASIS3-MCT coupler. The effects of wind waves on sea level variability are studied, accounting for wave-dependent stress, wave-breaking parameterization and wave-induced effects on vertical mixing. The analyses of the coupled model results reveal a closer match with observations than for the stand-alone circulation model, especially during the extreme storm Xaver in December 2013. The predicted surge of the coupled model is significantly enhanced during extreme storm events when considering wave–current interaction processes. This wave-dependent approach yields a contribution of more than 30 % in some coastal areas during extreme storm events. The contribution of a fully three-dimensional model compared with a two-dimensional barotropic model showed up to 20 % differences in the water level of the coastal areas of the German Bight during Xaver. The improved skill resulting from the new developments justifies further use of the coupled-wave and three-dimensional circulation models in coastal flooding predictions.

  13. Changes in the probability of co-occurring extreme climate events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diffenbaugh, N. S.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme climate events such as floods, droughts, heatwaves, and severe storms exert acute stresses on natural and human systems. When multiple extreme events co-occur, either in space or time, the impacts can be substantially compounded. A diverse set of human interests - including supply chains, agricultural commodities markets, reinsurance, and deployment of humanitarian aid - have historically relied on the rarity of extreme events to provide a geographic hedge against the compounded impacts of co-occuring extremes. However, changes in the frequency of extreme events in recent decades imply that the probability of co-occuring extremes is also changing, and is likely to continue to change in the future in response to additional global warming. This presentation will review the evidence for historical changes in extreme climate events and the response of extreme events to continued global warming, and will provide some perspective on methods for quantifying changes in the probability of co-occurring extremes in the past and future.

  14. Crop insurance evaluation in response to extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moriondo, Marco; Ferrise, Roberto; Bindi, Marco

    2013-04-01

    Crop yield insurance has been indicated as a tool to manage the uncertainties of crop yields (Sherrick et al., 2004) but the changes in crop yield variability as expected in the near future should be carefully considered for a better quantitative assessment of farmer's revenue risk and insurance values in a climatic change regime (Moriondo et al., 2011). Under this point of view, mechanistic crop growth models coupled to the output of General/Regional Circulation Models (GCMs, RCMs) offer a valuable tool to evaluate crop responses to climatic change and this approach has been extensively used to describe crop yield distribution in response to climatic change considering changes in both mean climate and variability. In this work, we studied the effect of a warmer climate on crop yield distribution of durum wheat (Triticum turgidum L. subsp durum) in order to assess the economic significance of climatic change in a risk decision context. Specifically, the outputs of 6 RCMs (Tmin, Tmax, Rainfall, Global Radiation) (van der Linden and Mitchell 2009) have been statistically downscaled by a stochastic weather generator over eight sites across the Mediterranean basin and used to feed the crop growth model Sirius Quality. Three time slices were considered i) the present period PP (average of the period 1975-1990, [CO2]=350 ppm), 2020 (average of the period 2010-2030, SRES scenario A1b, [CO2]=415 ppm) and 2040 (average of the period 2030-2050, SRES scenario A1b, [CO2]=480 ppm). The effect of extreme climate events (i.e. heat stress at anthesis stage) was also considered. The outputs of these simulations were used to estimate the expected payout per hectare from insurance triggered when yields fall below a specific threshold defined as "the insured yield". For each site, the threshold was calculated as a fraction (70%) of the median of yield distribution under PP that represents the percentage of median yield above which indemnity payments are triggered. The results

  15. Management of the Extreme Events: Countering International Terrorism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr. Cristian Barna

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available After the terrorism attacks of September 11, 2001, there is recognition by both the public and private sectors that one needs to rethink our strategy for dealing with these low probability but extreme consequence events. September 11, 2001 attacks against the United States raised numerous questions related to counter-terrorism, foreign policy, as well as national security in the United States and abroad. They also raised the fundamental question of who should pay for losses due to terrorism.The question of who should pay for terrorism risk prevention and sustainable coverage within a country is likely to be seen first as a matter of collective responsibility that each country has to consider – a societal choice

  16. J Waves for Predicting Cardiac Events in Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsuda, Toyonobu; Hayashi, Kenshi; Konno, Tetsuo; Sakata, Kenji; Fujita, Takashi; Hodatsu, Akihiko; Nagata, Yoji; Teramoto, Ryota; Nomura, Akihiro; Tanaka, Yoshihiro; Furusho, Hiroshi; Takamura, Masayuki; Kawashiri, Masa-Aki; Fujino, Noboru; Yamagishi, Masakazu

    2017-10-01

    This study sought to investigate whether the presence of J waves was associated with cardiac events in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). It has been uncertain whether the presence of J waves predicts life-threatening cardiac events in patients with HCM. This study evaluated consecutive 338 patients with HCM (207 men; age 61 ± 17 years of age). A J-wave was defined as J-point elevation >0.1 mV in at least 2 contiguous inferior and/or lateral leads. Cardiac events were defined as sudden cardiac death, ventricular fibrillation or sustained ventricular tachycardia, or appropriate implantable cardiac defibrillator therapy. The study also investigated whether adding the J-wave in a conventional risk model improved a prediction of cardiac events. J waves were seen in 46 (13.6%) patients at registration. Cardiac events occurred in 31 patients (9.2%) during median follow-up of 4.9 years (interquartile range: 2.6 to 7.1 years). In a Cox proportional hazards model, the presence of J waves was significantly associated with cardiac events (adjusted hazard ratio: 4.01; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.78 to 9.05; p = 0.001). Compared with the conventional risk model, the model using J waves in addition to conventional risks better predicted cardiac events (net reclassification improvement, 0.55; 95% CI: 0.20 to 0.90; p = 0.002). The presence of J waves was significantly associated with cardiac events in HCM. Adding J waves to conventional cardiac risk factors improved prediction of cardiac events. Further confirmatory studies are needed before considering J-point elevation as a marker of risk for use in making management decisions regarding risk in patients with HCM. Copyright © 2017 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Statistical lamb wave localization based on extreme value theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harley, Joel B.

    2018-04-01

    Guided wave localization methods based on delay-and-sum imaging, matched field processing, and other techniques have been designed and researched to create images that locate and describe structural damage. The maximum value of these images typically represent an estimated damage location. Yet, it is often unclear if this maximum value, or any other value in the image, is a statistically significant indicator of damage. Furthermore, there are currently few, if any, approaches to assess the statistical significance of guided wave localization images. As a result, we present statistical delay-and-sum and statistical matched field processing localization methods to create statistically significant images of damage. Our framework uses constant rate of false alarm statistics and extreme value theory to detect damage with little prior information. We demonstrate our methods with in situ guided wave data from an aluminum plate to detect two 0.75 cm diameter holes. Our results show an expected improvement in statistical significance as the number of sensors increase. With seventeen sensors, both methods successfully detect damage with statistical significance.

  18. Finite energy wave signals of extremal amplitude in the spatial NLS-dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Groesen, Embrecht W.C.; Andonowati, A.

    2006-01-01

    With the aim to find extremal properties of extreme waves, we consider waves of maximal crest (and wave) height in the model of the spatial NLS-dynamics. Using the two motion invariants momentum and Hamiltonian as constraints, we show that so-called cornered solitons provide the maximal crest

  19. Estimation of initiating event frequency for external flood events by extreme value theorem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chowdhury, Sourajyoti; Ganguly, Rimpi; Hari, Vibha

    2017-01-01

    External flood is an important common cause initiating event in nuclear power plants (NPPs). It may potentially lead to severe core damage (SCD) by first causing the failure of the systems required for maintaining the heat sinks and then by contributing to failures of engineered systems designed to mitigate such failures. The sample NPP taken here is twin 220 MWe Indian standard pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) situated inland. A comprehensive in-house Level-1 internal event PSA for full power had already been performed. External flood assessment was further conducted in area of external hazard risk assessment in response to post-Fukushima measures taken in nuclear industries. The present paper describes the methodology to calculate initiating event (IE) frequency for external flood events for the sample inland Indian NPP. General extreme value (GEV) theory based on maximum likelihood method (MLM) and order statistics approach (OSA) is used to analyse the rainfall data for the site. Thousand-year return level and necessary return periods for extreme rainfall are evaluated. These results along with plant-specific topographical calculations quantitatively establish that external flooding resulting from upstream dam break, river flooding and heavy rainfall (flash flood) would be unlikely for the sample NPP in consideration.

  20. Wave induced extreme hull girder loads on containerships

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jørgen Juncher; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup; Shi, Bill

    2009-01-01

    This paper provides simple but rational procedures for prediction of extreme wave – induced sectional hull girder forces with reasonable engineering accuracy. The procedures take into account main ship hull characteristics such as: length, breadth, draught, block coefficient, bow flare coefficient......, forward speed and hull flexibility. The vertical hull girder loads are evaluated for specific operational profiles. Firstly a quadratic strip theory is presented which can give separate predictions for the hogging and sagging bending moments and shear forces and for hull girder loads. Then this procedure...... is based on rational methods it can be applied for novel single hull ship types not presently covered by the rules of the classification societies or to account for specific operational profiles....

  1. Weakened cyclones, intensified anticyclones and recent extreme cold winter weather events in Eurasia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Xiangdong; Lu Chuhan; Guan Zhaoyong

    2012-01-01

    Extreme cold winter weather events over Eurasia have occurred more frequently in recent years in spite of a warming global climate. To gain further insight into this regional mismatch with the global mean warming trend, we analyzed winter cyclone and anticyclone activities, and their interplay with the regional atmospheric circulation pattern characterized by the semi-permanent Siberian high. We found a persistent weakening of both cyclones and anticyclones between the 1990s and early 2000s, and a pronounced intensification of anticyclone activity afterwards. It is suggested that this intensified anticyclone activity drives the substantially strengthening and northwestward shifting/expanding Siberian high, and explains the decreased midlatitude Eurasian surface air temperature and the increased frequency of cold weather events. The weakened tropospheric midlatitude westerlies in the context of the intensified anticyclones would reduce the eastward propagation speed of Rossby waves, favoring persistence and further intensification of surface anticyclone systems. (letter)

  2. Transient phenomena in cosmic ray intensity during extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agarwal, Rekha; Mishra, Rajesh K.

    2008-04-01

    In the present work an analysis has been made of the extreme events occurring during July 2005. Specifically, a rather intense Forbush decrease was observed at different neutron monitors all over the world during 16 July 2005. An effort has been made to study the effect of this unusual event on cosmic ray intensity as well as various solar and interplanetary plasma parameters. It is noteworthy that during 11 to 18 July 2005 the solar activity ranged from low to very active. Especially low levels occurred on 11, 15, and 17 July whereas high levels took place on 14 and 16 July 2005. The Sun is observed to be active during 11 to 18 July 2005, the interplanetary magnetic field intensity lies within 15 nT, and solar wind velocity was limited to ˜500 kms-1. The geomagnetic activity during this period remains very quiet, the Kp index did not exceed 5, the disturbance storm time Dst index remains ˜-70 nT and no sudden storm commencement has been detected during this period. It is noted that for the majority of the hours, the north/south component of the interplanetary magnetic field, Bz, remains negative, and the cosmic ray intensity increases and shows good/high correlation with Bz, as the polarity of Bz tends to shift from negative to positive values, the intensity decreases and shows good/high anti-correlation with Bz. The cosmic ray intensity tends to decrease with increase of interplanetary magnetic field strength (B) and shows anti-correlation for the majority of the days.

  3. Evaluation of extreme temperature events in northern Spain based on process control charts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villeta, M.; Valencia, J. L.; Saá, A.; Tarquis, A. M.

    2018-02-01

    Extreme climate events have recently attracted the attention of a growing number of researchers because these events impose a large cost on agriculture and associated insurance planning. This study focuses on extreme temperature events and proposes a new method for their evaluation based on statistical process control tools, which are unusual in climate studies. A series of minimum and maximum daily temperatures for 12 geographical areas of a Spanish region between 1931 and 2009 were evaluated by applying statistical process control charts to statistically test whether evidence existed for an increase or a decrease of extreme temperature events. Specification limits were determined for each geographical area and used to define four types of extreme anomalies: lower and upper extremes for the minimum and maximum anomalies. A new binomial Markov extended process that considers the autocorrelation between extreme temperature events was generated for each geographical area and extreme anomaly type to establish the attribute control charts for the annual fraction of extreme days and to monitor the occurrence of annual extreme days. This method was used to assess the significance of changes and trends of extreme temperature events in the analysed region. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of an attribute control chart for evaluating extreme temperature events. For example, the evaluation of extreme maximum temperature events using the proposed statistical process control charts was consistent with the evidence of an increase in maximum temperatures during the last decades of the last century.

  4. Event-adjusted evaluation of weather and climate extremes

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Müller, Miloslav; Kašpar, Marek

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 14, č. 2 (2014), s. 473-483 ISSN 1561-8633 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP209/11/1990 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : weather extreme * climate extreme * extremity evaluation * return period * generalized extreme value distribution * region of influence Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.735, year: 2014 http://www.nat-hazards- earth -syst-sci.net/14/473/2014/nhess-14-473-2014.pdf

  5. Impacts of Anthropogenic Aerosols on Regional Climate: Extreme Events, Stagnation, and the United States Warming Hole

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mascioli, Nora R.

    Extreme temperatures, heat waves, heavy rainfall events, drought, and extreme air pollution events have adverse effects on human health, infrastructure, agriculture and economies. The frequency, magnitude and duration of these events are expected to change in the future in response to increasing greenhouse gases and decreasing aerosols, but future climate projections are uncertain. A significant portion of this uncertainty arises from uncertainty in the effects of aerosol forcing: to what extent were the effects from greenhouse gases masked by aerosol forcing over the historical observational period, and how much will decreases in aerosol forcing influence regional and global climate over the remainder of the 21st century? The observed frequency and intensity of extreme heat and precipitation events have increased in the U.S. over the latter half of the 20th century. Using aerosol only (AER) and greenhouse gas only (GHG) simulations from 1860 to 2005 in the GFDL CM3 chemistry-climate model, I parse apart the competing influences of aerosols and greenhouse gases on these extreme events. I find that small changes in extremes in the "all forcing" simulations reflect cancellations between the effects of increasing anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases. In AER, extreme high temperatures and the number of days with temperatures above the 90th percentile decline over most of the U.S., while in GHG high temperature extremes increase over most of the U.S. The spatial response patterns in AER and GHG are significantly anti-correlated, suggesting a preferred regional mode of response that is largely independent of the type of forcing. Extreme precipitation over the eastern U.S. decreases in AER, particularly in winter, and increases over the eastern and central U.S. in GHG, particularly in spring. Over the 21 st century under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario, the patterns of extreme temperature and precipitation change associated with greenhouse gas forcing dominate. The

  6. The influence of hydrologic residence time on lake carbon cycling dynamics following extreme precipitation events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacob A. Zwart; Stephen D. Sebestyen; Christopher T. Solomon; Stuart E. Jones

    2016-01-01

    The frequency and magnitude of extreme events are expected to increase in the future, yet little is known about effects of such events on ecosystem structure and function. We examined how extreme precipitation events affect exports of terrestrial dissolved organic carbon (t-DOC) from watersheds to lakes as well as in-lake heterotrophy in three north-temperate lakes....

  7. Occurrence of energetic extreme oceanic events in the Colombian Caribbean coasts and some approaches to assess their impact on ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernal, G.; Osorio, A. F.; Urrego, L.; Peláez, D.; Molina, E.; Zea, S.; Montoya, R. D.; Villegas, N.

    2016-12-01

    Above-normal meteorological and oceanographic conditions that generate damage on coastal ecosystems and associated human communities are called extreme oceanic events. Accurate data are needed to predict their occurrence and to understand their effects. We analyzed available data from four localities in the Colombian Caribbean to study the effect of wave-related extreme events (hurricanes, surges) in three coastal ecosystems, i.e., mangroves, beaches, and reefs. Three localities were continental (Portete Bay mangroves at the Guajira Peninsula, Bocagrande Public Beach at Cartagena City, Tayrona Natural Park reefs near Santa Marta City), and one was oceanic (Old Providence Island reefs in the San Andres and Old Providence Archipelago, SW Caribbean). We gathered data on ocean surface winds (1978-2011) for the four locations, then modeled significant wave heights, then identified extreme events, and finally tried to identify effects on the ecosystems, directly or from published literature. Wave-related extreme surges were also compiled from Colombian press news (1970-2008). Modeled wave maximums (> 5 m significant wave height) and press-reported events coincided with hurricanes, extreme dry season, mid-summer drought and northern hemisphere winter cold fronts, with neither a relationship to ENSO events, nor a temporal trend of increase, excepting Portete Bay, with a marked increase after 1995. Changes in Portete Bay mangroves were analyzed from aerial photographs before and after Tropical Storm Cesar (1996). In the 38 years before Cesar there was mangrove inland colonization, with some loss associated to beach erosion, while during the 8 years following the storm there were localized retreats and important changes in vegetation composition related to the falling of large trees and subsequent recolonization by species that are faster colonizers, and changes in soil composition brought about by inundation. Cartagena's Bocagrande Beach was followed between 2009 and 2011

  8. LISA extreme-mass-ratio inspiral events as probes of the black hole mass function

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gair, Jonathan R.; Tang, Christopher; Volonteri, Marta

    2010-01-01

    One of the sources of gravitational waves for the proposed space-based gravitational wave detector, the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA), are the inspirals of compact objects into supermassive black holes in the centers of galaxies--extreme-mass-ratio inspirals (EMRIs). Using LISA observations, we will be able to measure the parameters of each EMRI system detected to very high precision. However, the statistics of the set of EMRI events observed by LISA will be more important in constraining astrophysical models than extremely precise measurements for individual systems. The black holes to which LISA is most sensitive are in a mass range that is difficult to probe using other techniques, so LISA provides an almost unique window onto these objects. In this paper we explore, using Bayesian techniques, the constraints that LISA EMRI observations can place on the mass function of black holes at low redshift. We describe a general framework for approaching inference of this type--using multiple observations in combination to constrain a parametrized source population. Assuming that the scaling of the EMRI rate with the black-hole mass is known and taking a black-hole distribution given by a simple power law, dn/dlnM=A 0 (M/M * ) α 0 , we find that LISA could measure the parameters to a precision of Δ(lnA 0 )∼0.08, and Δ(α 0 )∼0.03 for a reference model that predicts ∼1000 events. Even with as few as 10 events, LISA should constrain the slope to a precision ∼0.3, which is the current level of observational uncertainty in the low-mass slope of the black-hole mass function. We also consider a model in which A 0 and α 0 evolve with redshift, but find that EMRI observations alone do not have much power to probe such an evolution.

  9. Vulnerability of solar energy infrastructure and output to extreme events: Climate change implications (Conference paper)

    OpenAIRE

    Patt, A.; Pfenninger, S.; Lilliestam, J.

    2010-01-01

    This paper explores the potential vulnerability of solar energy systems to future extreme event risks as a consequence of climate change. We describe the three main technologies likely to be used to harness sunlight -- thermal heating, photovoltaic (PV), and concentrating solar power (CSP) -- and identify critical extreme event vulnerabilities for each one. We then compare these vulnerabilities with assessments of future changes in extreme event risk levels. We do not identify any vulnerabili...

  10. Estimating the impact of extreme events on crude oil price. An EMD-based event analysis method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Xun; Wang, Shouyang; Yu, Lean; Lai, Kin Keung

    2009-01-01

    The impact of extreme events on crude oil markets is of great importance in crude oil price analysis due to the fact that those events generally exert strong impact on crude oil markets. For better estimation of the impact of events on crude oil price volatility, this study attempts to use an EMD-based event analysis approach for this task. In the proposed method, the time series to be analyzed is first decomposed into several intrinsic modes with different time scales from fine-to-coarse and an average trend. The decomposed modes respectively capture the fluctuations caused by the extreme event or other factors during the analyzed period. It is found that the total impact of an extreme event is included in only one or several dominant modes, but the secondary modes provide valuable information on subsequent factors. For overlapping events with influences lasting for different periods, their impacts are separated and located in different modes. For illustration and verification purposes, two extreme events, the Persian Gulf War in 1991 and the Iraq War in 2003, are analyzed step by step. The empirical results reveal that the EMD-based event analysis method provides a feasible solution to estimating the impact of extreme events on crude oil prices variation. (author)

  11. Estimating the impact of extreme events on crude oil price. An EMD-based event analysis method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Xun; Wang, Shouyang [Institute of Systems Science, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); School of Mathematical Sciences, Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Yu, Lean [Institute of Systems Science, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Lai, Kin Keung [Department of Management Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon (China)

    2009-09-15

    The impact of extreme events on crude oil markets is of great importance in crude oil price analysis due to the fact that those events generally exert strong impact on crude oil markets. For better estimation of the impact of events on crude oil price volatility, this study attempts to use an EMD-based event analysis approach for this task. In the proposed method, the time series to be analyzed is first decomposed into several intrinsic modes with different time scales from fine-to-coarse and an average trend. The decomposed modes respectively capture the fluctuations caused by the extreme event or other factors during the analyzed period. It is found that the total impact of an extreme event is included in only one or several dominant modes, but the secondary modes provide valuable information on subsequent factors. For overlapping events with influences lasting for different periods, their impacts are separated and located in different modes. For illustration and verification purposes, two extreme events, the Persian Gulf War in 1991 and the Iraq War in 2003, are analyzed step by step. The empirical results reveal that the EMD-based event analysis method provides a feasible solution to estimating the impact of extreme events on crude oil prices variation. (author)

  12. Identifying Changes in the Probability of High Temperature, High Humidity Heat Wave Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballard, T.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

    2016-12-01

    Understanding how heat waves will respond to climate change is critical for adequate planning and adaptation. While temperature is the primary determinant of heat wave severity, humidity has been shown to play a key role in heat wave intensity with direct links to human health and safety. Here we investigate the individual contributions of temperature and specific humidity to extreme heat wave conditions in recent decades. Using global NCEP-DOE Reanalysis II daily data, we identify regional variability in the joint probability distribution of humidity and temperature. We also identify a statistically significant positive trend in humidity over the eastern U.S. during heat wave events, leading to an increased probability of high humidity, high temperature events. The extent to which we can expect this trend to continue under climate change is complicated due to variability between CMIP5 models, in particular among projections of humidity. However, our results support the notion that heat wave dynamics are characterized by more than high temperatures alone, and understanding and quantifying the various components of the heat wave system is crucial for forecasting future impacts.

  13. Climate Resiliency Planning: Making Extreme Event Science Useful for Managers and Planners in Northern Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarthy, M.; Kenneston, A.; Wall, T. U.; Brown, T. J.; Redmond, K. T.

    2014-12-01

    Effective climate resiliency planning at the regional level requires extensive interactive dialogue among climate scientists, emergency managers, public health officials, urban planners, social scientists, and policy makers. Engaging federal, tribal, state, local governments and private sector business and infrastructure owners/operators in defining, assessing and characterizing the impacts of extreme events allows communities to understand how different events "break the system" forcing local communities to seek support and resources from state/federal governments and/or the private sector and what actions can be taken proactively to mitigate consequences and accelerate recovery. The Washoe County Regional Resiliency Study was prepared in response to potential climate variability related impacts specific to the Northern Nevada Region. The last several decades have seen dramatic growth in the region, coupled with increased resource demands that have forced local governments to consider how those impacts will affect the region and may, in turn, impact the region's ability to provide essential services. The Western Regional Climate Center of the Desert Research Institute provided a synthesis of climate studies with predictions regarding plausible changes in the local climate of Northern California and Nevada for the next 50 years. In general, these predictions indicate that the region's climate is undergoing a gradual shift, which will primarily affect the frequency, amount, and form of precipitation in the Sierra Nevada and Great Basin. Changes in water availability and other extreme events may have serious and long lasting effects in the Northern Nevada Region, and create a variety of social, environmental and economic concerns. A range of extreme events were considered including Adverse Air Quality, Droughts, Floods, Heat Waves, High Wind, Structure Fires, Wildland Fires, and Major Winter Storms. Due to the complexity of our climate systems, and the difficulty in

  14. Short-Period Surface Wave Based Seismic Event Relocation

    Science.gov (United States)

    White-Gaynor, A.; Cleveland, M.; Nyblade, A.; Kintner, J. A.; Homman, K.; Ammon, C. J.

    2017-12-01

    Accurate and precise seismic event locations are essential for a broad range of geophysical investigations. Superior location accuracy generally requires calibration with ground truth information, but superb relative location precision is often achievable independently. In explosion seismology, low-yield explosion monitoring relies on near-source observations, which results in a limited number of observations that challenges our ability to estimate any locations. Incorporating more distant observations means relying on data with lower signal-to-noise ratios. For small, shallow events, the short-period (roughly 1/2 to 8 s period) fundamental-mode and higher-mode Rayleigh waves (including Rg) are often the most stable and visible portion of the waveform at local distances. Cleveland and Ammon [2013] have shown that teleseismic surface waves are valuable observations for constructing precise, relative event relocations. We extend the teleseismic surface wave relocation method, and apply them to near-source distances using Rg observations from the Bighorn Arche Seismic Experiment (BASE) and the Earth Scope USArray Transportable Array (TA) seismic stations. Specifically, we present relocation results using short-period fundamental- and higher-mode Rayleigh waves (Rg) in a double-difference relative event relocation for 45 delay-fired mine blasts and 21 borehole chemical explosions. Our preliminary efforts are to explore the sensitivity of the short-period surface waves to local geologic structure, source depth, explosion magnitude (yield), and explosion characteristics (single-shot vs. distributed source, etc.). Our results show that Rg and the first few higher-mode Rayleigh wave observations can be used to constrain the relative locations of shallow low-yield events.

  15. Research frontiers in climate change: Effects of extreme meteorological events on ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jentsch, A.; Jentsch, A.; Beierkuhnlein, C.

    2008-01-01

    Climate change will increase the recurrence of extreme weather events such as drought and heavy rainfall. Evidence suggests that modifications in extreme weather events pose stronger threats to ecosystem functioning than global trends and shifts in average conditions. As ecosystem functioning is connected with ecological services, this has far-reaching effects on societies in the 21. century. Here, we: (i) present the rationale for the increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events in the near future; (ii) discuss recent findings on meteorological extremes and summarize their effects on ecosystems and (iii) identify gaps in current ecological climate change research. (authors)

  16. The Peculiar Light Curve of J1415+1320: A Case Study in Extreme Scattering Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vedantham, H. K.; Readhead, A. C. S.; Hovatta, T.; Koopmans, L. V. E.; Pearson, T. J.; Blandford, R. D.; Gurwell, M. A.; Lähteenmäki, A.; Max-Moerbeck, W.; Pavlidou, V.; Ravi, V.; Reeves, R. A.; Richards, J. L.; Tornikoski, M.; Zensus, J. A.

    2017-08-01

    The radio light curve of J1415+1320 (PKS 1413+135) shows time-symmetric and recurring U-shaped features across the centimeter-wave and millimeter-wave bands. The symmetry of these features points to lensing by an intervening object as the cause. U-shaped events in radio light curves in the centimeter-wave band have previously been attributed to Extreme scattering events (ESE). ESEs are thought to be the result of lensing by compact plasma structures in the Galactic interstellar medium, but the precise nature of these plasma structures remains unknown. Since the strength of a plasma lens evolves with wavelength λ as {λ }2, the presence of correlated variations at over a wide wavelength range casts doubt on the canonical ESE interpretation for J1415+1320. In this paper, we critically examine the evidence for plasma lensing in J1415+1320. We compute limits on the lensing strength and the associated free-free opacity of the putative plasma lenses. We compare the observed and model ESE light curves, and also derive a lower limit on the lens distance based on the effects of parallax due to the Earth’s orbit around the Sun. We conclude that plasma lensing is not a viable interpretation for J1415+1320's light curves and that symmetric U-shaped features in the radio light curves of extragalactic sources do not present prima facie evidence for ESEs. The methodology presented here is generic enough to be applicable to any plasma-lensing candidate.

  17. Impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The analysis of the frequency of rainy days, rain days and heavy rainfall days as well as one-day extreme rainfall and return period has been carried out in this study to observe the impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk in India. The frequency of heavy rainfall events are decreasing in major parts ...

  18. Extreme Waves in Svåheia SSG Location

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Margheritini, Lucia; Kofoed, Jens Peter

    The present report is the written documentation of the work carried under a consultancy project agreement between WaveEnergy AS and Aalborg University (AAU). The purpose of the study is to define maximum wave heights and related waves loading acting on the SSG in Svaheia, Norway and to provide th...

  19. Prevention through policy: Urban macroplastic leakages to the marine environment during extreme rainfall events

    OpenAIRE

    Axelsson, Charles; van Sebille, Erik

    2017-01-01

    The leakage of large plastic litter (macroplastics) into the ocean is a major environmental problem. A significant fraction of this leakage originates from coastal cities, particularly during extreme rainfall events. As coastal cities continue to grow, finding ways to reduce this macroplastic leakage is extremely pertinent. Here, we explore why and how coastal cities can reduce macroplastic leakages during extreme rainfall events. Using nine global cities as a basis, we establish that while c...

  20. Predicting the extreme 2015/16 El Nino event

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Mpheshea, LE

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available A strong El Niño phenomenon is expected to develop during the austral summer. This study seeks to address the two main questions. 1) How strong will the 2016 event be? 2) With how much skill and confidence can a really strong event be predicted? A...

  1. Planetary wave-gravity wave interactions during mesospheric inversion layer events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramesh, K.; Sridharan, S.; Raghunath, K.; Vijaya Bhaskara Rao, S.; Bhavani Kumar, Y.

    2013-07-01

    lidar temperature observations over Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E) show a few mesospheric inversion layer (MIL) events during 20-25 January 2007. The zonal mean removed SABER temperature shows warm anomalies around 50°E and 275°E indicating the presence of planetary wave of zonal wave number 2. The MIL amplitudes in SABER temperature averaged for 10°N-15°N and 70°E-90°E show a clear 2 day wave modulation during 20-28 January 2007. Prior to 20 January 2007, a strong 2day wave (zonal wave number 2) is observed in the height region of 80-90 km and it gets largely suppressed during 20-26 January 2007 as the condition for vertical propagation is not favorable, though it prevails at lower heights. The 10 day mean zonal wind over Tirunelveli (8.7°N, 77.8°E) shows deceleration of eastward winds indicating the westward drag due to wave dissipation. The nightly mean MF radar observed zonal winds show the presence of alternating eastward and westward winds during the period of 20-26 January 2007. The two dimensional spectrum of Rayleigh lidar temperature observations available for the nights of 20, 22, and 24 January 2007 shows the presence of gravity wave activity with periods 18 min, 38 min, 38 min, and vertical wavelengths 6.4 km, 4.0 km, 6.4 km respectively. From the dispersion relation of gravity waves, it is inferred that these waves are internal gravity waves rather than inertia gravity waves with the horizontal phase speeds of ~40 m/s, ~37 m/s, and ~50 m/s respectively. Assuming the gravity waves are eastward propagating waves, they get absorbed only in the eastward local wind fields of the planetary wave thereby causing turbulence and eddy diffusion which can be inferred from the estimation of large drag force due to the breaking of gravity wave leading to the formation of large amplitude inversion events in alternate nights. The present study shows that, the mesospheric temperature inversion is caused mainly due to the gravity wave breaking and the inversion

  2. Modelling Extreme Events (Hurricanes) at the Seafloor in the Gulf of Mexico:

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syvitski, J. P.; Jenkins, C. J.; Meiburg, E. H.; Radhakrishnan, S.; Harris, C. K.; Arango, H.; Kniskern, T. A.; Hutton, E.; Auad, G.

    2016-02-01

    The subsea infrastructure of the N Gulf of Mexico is exposed to risks of seabed failure and flowage under extreme storm events. Numerical assessments of the likelihood, location and severity of those phenomena would help in planning. A project under BOEM, couples advanced modelling modules in order to begin such a system. The period 2008-10 was used for test data, covering hurricanes Gustav and Ike in the Mississippi to De Soto Canyons region. Currents, tides and surface waves were computed using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) and river discharges from WBMsed. The Community Sediment Transport Model (CSTMS) calculated the concurrent sediment erosion-transport-deposition. Local sediment properties were from the dbSEABED database. The preferred paths of near-bottom sediment flows were based on a stream analysis of the bathymetry. Locations and timings of suspended sediment gravity flow were identified by applying energy flow ignition criterea. Wave-induced mass failure and subbottom liquefaction were assessed using a bevy of marine geotechnical models. The persistence, densities and velocities of turbidity flows yielded by the disruption of the sediment masses were calculated using high-Reynolds Number adaptations of LES/RANS-TURBINS models (Large-Eddy Simulation / Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes). A valuable experience in the project was devising workflows and linkages between these advanced, but independent models. We thank H Arango, T Kniskern, J Birchler and S Radhakrishnan for their help in this. Results: as known, much of the shelf sediment mantle is suspended and/or moved during hurricanes. Many short-lived gravity-flow ignitions happen on the shelf; only those at the shelf edge will ignite into fast, erosive currents. Sediment patchiness and vagaries of hurricane path mean that the pattern alters from event to event. To understand the impacts on infrastructure, a numerical process-based modelling approach will be essential - along the lines we

  3. Ultimate design load analysis of planetary gearbox bearings under extreme events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gallego Calderon, Juan Felipe; Natarajan, Anand; Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio

    2017-01-01

    This paper investigates the impact of extreme events on the planet bearings of a 5 MW gearbox. The system is simulated using an aeroelastic tool, where the turbine structure is modeled, and MATLAB/Simulink, where the drivetrain (gearbox and generator) are modeled using a lumped-parameter approach....... Three extreme events are assessed: low-voltage ride through, emergency stop and normal stop. The analysis is focused on finding which event has the most negative impact on the bearing extreme radial loads. The two latter events are carried out following the guidelines of the International...

  4. Directional Considerations for Extreme Wind Climatic Events in the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper takes a look at the importance and role of probability concepts structural design of transmission line. The reliability of transmission structure is clearly a function of the maximum loads that may be imposed over the useful life of the structure. These loads are, more often than not, caused by the extreme atmospheric ...

  5. Projected changes of extreme weather events in the eastern United States based on a high resolution climate modeling system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao, Y; Fu, J S; Drake, J B; Liu, Y; Lamarque, J-F

    2012-01-01

    This study is the first evaluation of dynamical downscaling using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model on a 4 km × 4 km high resolution scale in the eastern US driven by the new Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM v1.0). First we examined the global and regional climate model results, and corrected an inconsistency in skin temperature during the downscaling process by modifying the land/sea mask. In comparison with observations, WRF shows statistically significant improvement over CESM in reproducing extreme weather events, with improvement for heat wave frequency estimation as high as 98%. The fossil fuel intensive scenario Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 was used to study a possible future mid-century climate extreme in 2057–9. Both the heat waves and the extreme precipitation in 2057–9 are more severe than the present climate in the Eastern US. The Northeastern US shows large increases in both heat wave intensity (3.05 °C higher) and annual extreme precipitation (107.3 mm more per year). (letter)

  6. Extreme climatic events: reducing ecological and social systems vulnerabilities; Evenements climatiques extremes: reduire les vulnerabilites des systemes ecologiques et sociaux

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Decamps, H.; Amatore, C.; Bach, J.F.; Baccelli, F.; Balian, R.; Carpentier, A.; Charnay, P.; Cuzin, F.; Davier, M.; Dercourt, J.; Dumas, C.; Encrenaz, P.; Jeannerod, M.; Kahane, J.P.; Meunier, B.; Rebut, P.H.; Salencon, J.; Spitz, E.; Suquet, P.; Taquet, P.; Valleron, A.J.; Yoccoz, J.C.; Chapron, J.Y.; Fanon, J.; Andre, J.C.; Auger, P.; Bourrelier, P.H.; Combes, C.; Derrida, B.; Laubier, L.; Laval, K.; Le Maho, Y.; Marsily, G. De; Petit, M.; Schmidt-Laine, C.; Birot, Y.; Peyron, J.L.; Seguin, B.; Barles, S.; Besancenot, J.P.; Michel-Kerjan, E.; Hallegatte, S.; Dumas, P.; Ancey, V.; Requier-Desjardins, M.; Ducharnes, A.; Ciais, P.; Peylin, P.; Kaniewski, D.; Van Campo, E.; Planton, S.; Manuguerra, J.C.; Le Bars, Y.; Lagadec, P.; Kessler, D.; Pontikis, C.; Nussbaum, R.

    2010-07-01

    The Earth has to face more and more devastating extreme events. Between 1970 and 2009, at the worldwide scale, the 25 most costly catastrophes all took place after 1987, and for more than half of them after 2001. Among these 25 catastrophes, 23 were linked to climate conditions. France was not spared: the December 1999 storms led to 88 deaths, deprived 3.5 million households of electricity and costed more than 9 billion euros. The 2003 heat wave led to about 15000 supernumerary deaths between August 1 and August 20. The recent Xynthia storm, with its flood barrier ruptures, provoked 53 deaths in addition to many other tragedies that took place in areas liable to flooding. In the present day context of climate change, we know that we must be prepared to even more dangerous events, sometimes unexpected before. These events can have amplified effects because of the urban development, the overpopulation of coastal areas and the anthropization of natural environments. They represent real 'poverty traps' for the poorest countries of the Earth. The anticipation need is real but is our country ready to answer it? Does it have a sufficient contribution to international actions aiming at reducing risks? Is his scientific information suitable? France is not less vulnerable than other countries. It must reinforce its prevention, its response and resilience capacities in the framework of integrated policies of catastrophes risk management as well as in the framework of climate change adaptation plans. This reinforcement supposes the development of vigilance systems with a better risk coverage and benefiting by the advances gained in the meteorology and health domains. It supposes a town and country planning allowing to improve the viability of ecological and social systems - in particular by protecting their diversity. Finally, this reinforcement requires inciting financial coverage solutions for catastrophes prevention and for their management once they have taken

  7. Detecting impacts of extreme events with ecological in situ monitoring networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. D. Mahecha

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Extreme hydrometeorological conditions typically impact ecophysiological processes on land. Satellite-based observations of the terrestrial biosphere provide an important reference for detecting and describing the spatiotemporal development of such events. However, in-depth investigations of ecological processes during extreme events require additional in situ observations. The question is whether the density of existing ecological in situ networks is sufficient for analysing the impact of extreme events, and what are expected event detection rates of ecological in situ networks of a given size. To assess these issues, we build a baseline of extreme reductions in the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR, identified by a new event detection method tailored to identify extremes of regional relevance. We then investigate the event detection success rates of hypothetical networks of varying sizes. Our results show that large extremes can be reliably detected with relatively small networks, but also reveal a linear decay of detection probabilities towards smaller extreme events in log–log space. For instance, networks with  ≈  100 randomly placed sites in Europe yield a  ≥  90 % chance of detecting the eight largest (typically very large extreme events; but only a  ≥  50 % chance of capturing the 39 largest events. These findings are consistent with probability-theoretic considerations, but the slopes of the decay rates deviate due to temporal autocorrelation and the exact implementation of the extreme event detection algorithm. Using the examples of AmeriFlux and NEON, we then investigate to what degree ecological in situ networks can capture extreme events of a given size. Consistent with our theoretical considerations, we find that today's systematically designed networks (i.e. NEON reliably detect the largest extremes, but that the extreme event detection rates are not higher than would

  8. Assessing uncertainty in extreme events: Applications to risk-based decision making in interdependent infrastructure sectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barker, Kash; Haimes, Yacov Y.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based decision making often relies upon expert probability assessments, particularly in the consequences of disruptive events and when such events are extreme or catastrophic in nature. Naturally, such expert-elicited probability distributions can be fraught with errors, as they describe events which occur very infrequently and for which only sparse data exist. This paper presents a quantitative framework, the extreme event uncertainty sensitivity impact method (EE-USIM), for measuring the sensitivity of extreme event consequences to uncertainties in the parameters of the underlying probability distribution. The EE-USIM is demonstrated with the Inoperability input-output model (IIM), a model with which to evaluate the propagation of inoperability throughout an interdependent set of economic and infrastructure sectors. The EE-USIM also makes use of a two-sided power distribution function generated by expert elicitation of extreme event consequences

  9. Synergistic effects of an extreme weather event and habitat fragmentation on a specialised insect herbivore.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piessens, Katrien; Adriaens, Dries; Jacquemyn, Hans; Honnay, Olivier

    2009-02-01

    Habitat fragmentation is considered to be one of the main causes of population decline and species extinction worldwide. Furthermore, habitat fragmentation can decrease the ability of populations to resist and to recover from environmental disturbances such as extreme weather events, which are expected to occur at an increasing rate as a result of climate change. In this study, we investigated how calcareous grassland fragmentation affected the impact of the climatically extreme summer of 2003 on egg deposition rates, population size variation and survival of the blue butterfly Cupido minimus, a specialist herbivore of Anthyllis vulneraria. Immediately after the 2003 summer heat wave, populations of the host plant declined in size; this was paralleled with decreases in population size of the herbivore and altered egg deposition rates. In 2006 at the end of the monitoring period, however, most A. vulneraria populations had recovered and only one population went extinct. In contrast, several butterfly populations had gone extinct between 2003 and 2006. Extinction probability was significantly related to initial population size, with small populations having a higher risk of extinction than large populations. These results support the prediction that species of higher trophic levels are more susceptible to extinction due to habitat fragmentation and severe disturbances.

  10. A Floating Offshore Wind Turbine in Extreme Wave Conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wehmeyer, Christof

    in order to include non-linear irregular incident waves as well as non-linear irregular incident waves with an embedded Stream-function wave. A linear background sea state into which a Stream-function wave was embedded was assumed no longer appropriate. Therefore a 2nd order sea state model was developed...... and served as well as the background sea state in which the Stream-function wave was embedded. The combined sea state was then applied in the numerical model in order to investigate the bow tendon responses of the FOWT TLP. A comparison of measured bow mooring responses and the numerically predicted bow......The PhD work evaluated the performance of engineering procedures, used in the design of bottom fixed offshore wind turbines, for the hydrodynamic ULS analysis of a FOWT tension leg platform (TLP). Dynamically sensitive topsides have been included and water depths were considered, where wave shapes...

  11. Wave Extremes in the Northeast Atlantic from Ensemble Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breivik, Øyvind; Aarnes, Ole Johan; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond; Carrasco, Ana; Saetra, Øyvind

    2013-10-01

    A method for estimating return values from ensembles of forecasts at advanced lead times is presented. Return values of significant wave height in the North-East Atlantic, the Norwegian Sea and the North Sea are computed from archived +240-h forecasts of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS) from 1999 to 2009. We make three assumptions: First, each forecast is representative of a six-hour interval and collectively the data set is then comparable to a time period of 226 years. Second, the model climate matches the observed distribution, which we confirm by comparing with buoy data. Third, the ensemble members are sufficiently uncorrelated to be considered independent realizations of the model climate. We find anomaly correlations of 0.20, but peak events (>P97) are entirely uncorrelated. By comparing return values from individual members with return values of subsamples of the data set we also find that the estimates follow the same distribution and appear unaffected by correlations in the ensemble. The annual mean and variance over the 11-year archived period exhibit no significant departures from stationarity compared with a recent reforecast, i.e., there is no spurious trend due to model upgrades. EPS yields significantly higher return values than ERA-40 and ERA-Interim and is in good agreement with the high-resolution hindcast NORA10, except in the lee of unresolved islands where EPS overestimates and in enclosed seas where it is biased low. Confidence intervals are half the width of those found for ERA-Interim due to the magnitude of the data set.

  12. Climate extremes in urban area and their impact on human health: the summer heat waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldi, Marina

    2014-05-01

    In the period 1951-2012 the average global land and ocean temperature has increased by approximately 0.72°C [0.49-0.89] when described by a linear trend, and is projected to rapidly increase. Each of the past three decades has been warmer than all the previous decades, with the decade of the 2000's as the warmest, and, since 1880, nine of the ten warmest years are in the 21st century, the only exception being 1998, which was warmed by the strongest El Niño event of the past century. In parallel an increase in the frequency and intensity of extremely hot days is detected with differences at different scales, which represent an health risk specially in largely populated areas as documented for several regions in the world including the Euro-Mediterranean region. If it is still under discussion if heat wave episodes are a direct result of the warming of the lower troposphere, or if, more likely, they are a regional climate event, however heat episodes have been studied in order to define their correlation with large scale atmospheric patterns and with changes in the regional circulation. Whatever the causes and the spatio-temporal extension of the episodes, epidemiological studies show that these conditions pose increasing health risks inducing heat-related diseases including hyperthermia and heat stress, cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses in susceptible individuals with a significant increase in morbidity and mortality especially in densely populated urban areas. In several Mediterranean cities peaks of mortality associated with extremely high temperature (with simultaneous high humidity levels) have been documented showing that, in some cases, a large increase in daily mortality has been reached compared to the average for the period. The number of fatalities during the summer 2003 heat wave in Europe was estimated to largely exceed the average value of some between 22000 and 50000 cases. In the same summer it was also unusually hot across much of Asia, and

  13. A wave parameters and directional spectrum analysis for extreme winds

    OpenAIRE

    Montoya Ramírez, Rubén Darío; Osorio Arias, Andres Fernando; Ortiz Royero, Juan Carlos; Ocampo-Torres, Francisco Javier

    2013-01-01

    In this research a comparison between two of the most popular ocean wave models, WAVEWATCH III™ and SWAN, was performed using data from hurricane Katrina in the Gulf of Mexico. The numerical simulation of sea surface directional wave spectrum and other wave parameters for several parameter- izations and its relation with the drag coefficient was carried out. The simulated data were compared with in-situ NOAA buoy data. For most of the buoys, WAVEWATCH III™ presented the best statistical compar...

  14. A climate-based multivariate extreme emulator of met-ocean-hydrological events for coastal flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camus, Paula; Rueda, Ana; Mendez, Fernando J.; Tomas, Antonio; Del Jesus, Manuel; Losada, Iñigo J.

    2015-04-01

    Atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) are useful to analyze large-scale climate variability (long-term historical periods, future climate projections). However, applications such as coastal flood modeling require climate information at finer scale. Besides, flooding events depend on multiple climate conditions: waves, surge levels from the open-ocean and river discharge caused by precipitation. Therefore, a multivariate statistical downscaling approach is adopted to reproduce relationships between variables and due to its low computational cost. The proposed method can be considered as a hybrid approach which combines a probabilistic weather type downscaling model with a stochastic weather generator component. Predictand distributions are reproduced modeling the relationship with AOGCM predictors based on a physical division in weather types (Camus et al., 2012). The multivariate dependence structure of the predictand (extreme events) is introduced linking the independent marginal distributions of the variables by a probabilistic copula regression (Ben Ayala et al., 2014). This hybrid approach is applied for the downscaling of AOGCM data to daily precipitation and maximum significant wave height and storm-surge in different locations along the Spanish coast. Reanalysis data is used to assess the proposed method. A commonly predictor for the three variables involved is classified using a regression-guided clustering algorithm. The most appropriate statistical model (general extreme value distribution, pareto distribution) for daily conditions is fitted. Stochastic simulation of the present climate is performed obtaining the set of hydraulic boundary conditions needed for high resolution coastal flood modeling. References: Camus, P., Menéndez, M., Méndez, F.J., Izaguirre, C., Espejo, A., Cánovas, V., Pérez, J., Rueda, A., Losada, I.J., Medina, R. (2014b). A weather-type statistical downscaling framework for ocean wave climate. Journal of

  15. Analyzing phenological extreme events over the past five decades in Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schleip, Christoph; Menzel, Annette; Estrella, Nicole; Graeser, Philipp

    2010-05-01

    As climate change may alter the frequency and intensity of extreme temperatures, we analysed whether warming of the last 5 decades has already changed the statistics of phenological extreme events. In this context, two extreme value statistical concepts are discussed and applied to existing phenological datasets of German Weather Service (DWD) in order to derive probabilities of occurrence for extreme early or late phenological events. We analyse four phenological groups; "begin of flowering, "leaf foliation", "fruit ripening" and "leaf colouring" as well as DWD indicator phases of the "phenological year". Additionally we put an emphasis on a between-species analysis; a comparison of differences in extreme onsets between three common northern conifers. Furthermore we conducted a within-species analysis with different phases of horse chestnut throughout a year. The first statistical approach fits data to a Gaussian model using traditional statistical techniques, and then analyses the extreme quantile. The key point of this approach is the adoption of an appropriate probability density function (PDF) to the observed data and the assessment of the PDF parameters change in time. The full analytical description in terms of the estimated PDF for defined time steps of the observation period allows probability assessments of extreme values for e.g. annual or decadal time steps. Related with this approach is the possibility of counting out the onsets which fall in our defined extreme percentiles. The estimation of the probability of extreme events on the basis of the whole data set is in contrast to analyses with the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV). The second approach deals with the extreme PDFs itself and fits the GEV distribution to annual minima of phenological series to provide useful estimates about return levels. For flowering and leaf unfolding phases exceptionally early extremes are seen since the mid 1980s and especially for the single years 1961

  16. The Coincident Coherence of Extreme Doppler Velocity Events with p-mode Patches in the Solar Photosphere.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClure, Rachel Lee

    2018-06-01

    Observations of the solar photosphere show many spatially compact Doppler velocity events with short life spans and extreme values. In the IMaX spectropolarimetric inversion data of the first flight of the SUNRISE balloon in 2009 these striking flashes in the intergranule lanes and complementary outstanding values in the centers of granules have line of sight Doppler velocity values in excess of 4 sigma from the mean. We conclude that values outside 4 sigma are a result from the superposition of the granulation flows and the p-modes.To determine how granulation and p-modes contribute to these outstanding Doppler events, I separate the two components using the Fast Fourier Transform. I produce the power spectrum of the spatial wave frequencies and their corresponding frequency in time for each image, and create a k-omega filter to separate the two components. Using the filtered data, test the hypothesis that extreme events occur because of strict superposition between the p-mode Doppler velocities and the granular velocities. I compare event counts from the observational data to those produced by random superposition of the two flow components and find that the observational event counts are consistent with the model event counts in the limit of small number statistics. Poisson count probabilities of event numbers observed are consistent with expected model count probability distributions.

  17. Evidence for Alfvén Waves in Source Flares of Impulsive Solar Energetic Particle Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bucik, R.; Innes, D.; Mason, G. M.; Wiedenbeck, M. E.; Gomez-Herrero, R.; Nitta, N.

    2017-12-01

    Impulsive solar energetic particle events, characterised by a peculiar elemental composition with the rare elements like 3He and ultra-heavy ions enhanced by factors up to ten thousand above their thermal abundance, have been puzzling for almost 50 years. The solar sources of these events have been commonly associated with coronal jets, believed to be a signature of magnetic reconnection involving field lines open to interplanetary space. Here we present some of the most intense events, highly enriched in both 3He and heavier ions. The corresponding high-resolution, extreme-ultraviolet imaging observations have revealed for the first time a helical structure in the source flare with a jet-like shape. A mini-filament at the base of the jet appears to trigger these events. The events were observed with the two Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatories on the backside of the Sun, during the period of increased solar activity in 2014. During the last decade, it has been established that the helical motions in coronal jets represent propagating Alfvén waves. Revealing such magnetic-untwisting waves in the solar sources of highly enriched events in this study is consistent with a stochastic acceleration mechanism. An examination of jets in previously reported impulsive solar energetic particle events indicates that they tend to be large-scale blowout jets, sometimes cleanly showing a twisted configuration.The work of R. Bucik is supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft grant BU 3115/2-1.

  18. A Floating Offshore Wind Turbine in Extreme Wave Conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wehmeyer, Christof

    is an expected maximum wave in accordance with a Rayleigh distribution. The maximum waves are numerically represented by embedded Stream-function waves. The author compares the resulting bow tendon loading of the hybrid model to the measured responses, as a key performance indicator. 90% to 95% of the loads show...... a satisfying match, though the hybrid model over predicts the remaining 5% to 10% maximum loads by 32%, 34% and 29% for a linear irregular sea state, a nonlinear irregular sea state and a nonlinear irregular sea state with an embedded Stream-function wave, respectively. The limited number of sea states during...... important aspects, which make them non-conservative in use for FOWT: (A) The offshore wind industry intends to install floating structures at much lower water depth (from 50m onwards), than the offshore oil & gas industry (from 300m onwards). In such cases a linear wave theory approach might...

  19. (When and where) Do extreme climate events trigger extreme ecosystem responses? - Development and initial results of a holistic analysis framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauber, Eva K.; Donner, Reik V.

    2015-04-01

    In the context of ongoing climate change, extremes are likely to increase in magnitude and frequency. One of the most important consequences of these changes is that the associated ecological risks and impacts are potentially rising as well. In order to better anticipate and understand these impacts, it therefore becomes more and more crucial to understand the general connection between climate extremes and the response and functionality of ecosystems. Among other region of the world, Europe presents an excellent test case for studies concerning the interaction between climate and biosphere, since it lies in the transition region between cold polar and warm tropical air masses and thus covers a great variety of different climatic zones and associated terrestrial ecosystems. The large temperature differences across the continent make this region particularly interesting for investigating the effects of climate change on biosphere-climate interactions. However, previously used methods for defining an extreme event typically disregard the necessity of taking seasonality as well as seasonal variance appropriately into account. Furthermore, most studies have focused on the impacts of individual extreme events instead of considering a whole inventory of extremes with their respective spatio-temporal extents. In order to overcome the aforementioned research gaps, this work introduces a new approach to studying climate-biosphere interactions associated with extreme events, which comprises three consecutive steps: (1) Since Europe exhibits climatic conditions characterized by marked seasonality, a novel method is developed to define extreme events taking into account the seasonality in all quantiles of the probability distribution of the respective variable of interest. This is achieved by considering kernel density estimates individually for each observation date during the year, including the properly weighted information from adjacent dates. By this procedure, we obtain

  20. Communicating Climate Uncertainties: Challenges and Opportunities Related to Spatial Scales, Extreme Events, and the Warming 'Hiatus'

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casola, J. H.; Huber, D.

    2013-12-01

    Many media, academic, government, and advocacy organizations have achieved sophistication in developing effective messages based on scientific information, and can quickly translate salient aspects of emerging climate research and evolving observations. However, there are several ways in which valid messages can be misconstrued by decision makers, leading them to inaccurate conclusions about the risks associated with climate impacts. Three cases will be discussed: 1) Issues of spatial scale in interpreting climate observations: Local climate observations may contradict summary statements about the effects of climate change on larger regional or global spatial scales. Effectively addressing these differences often requires communicators to understand local and regional climate drivers, and the distinction between a 'signal' associated with climate change and local climate 'noise.' Hydrological statistics in Missouri and California are shown to illustrate this case. 2) Issues of complexity related to extreme events: Climate change is typically invoked following a wide range of damaging meteorological events (e.g., heat waves, landfalling hurricanes, tornadoes), regardless of the strength of the relationship between anthropogenic climate change and the frequency or severity of that type of event. Examples are drawn from media coverage of several recent events, contrasting useful and potentially confusing word choices and frames. 3) Issues revolving around climate sensitivity: The so-called 'pause' or 'hiatus' in global warming has reverberated strongly through political and business discussions of climate change. Addressing the recent slowdown in warming yields an important opportunity to raise climate literacy in these communities. Attempts to use recent observations as a wedge between climate 'believers' and 'deniers' is likely to be counterproductive. Examples are drawn from Congressional testimony and media stories. All three cases illustrate ways that decision

  1. Proxy records of Holocene storm events in coastal barrier systems: Storm-wave induced markers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goslin, Jérôme; Clemmensen, Lars B.

    2017-10-01

    Extreme storm events in the coastal zone are one of the main forcing agents of short-term coastal system behavior. As such, storms represent a major threat to human activities concentrated along the coasts worldwide. In order to better understand the frequency of extreme events like storms, climate science must rely on longer-time records than the century-scale records of instrumental weather data. Proxy records of storm-wave or storm-wind induced activity in coastal barrier systems deposits have been widely used worldwide in recent years to document past storm events during the last millennia. This review provides a detailed state-of-the-art compilation of the proxies available from coastal barrier systems to reconstruct Holocene storm chronologies (paleotempestology). The present paper aims (I) to describe the erosional and depositional processes caused by storm-wave action in barrier and back-barrier systems (i.e. beach ridges, storm scarps and washover deposits), (ii) to understand how storm records can be extracted from barrier and back-barrier sedimentary bodies using stratigraphical, sedimentological, micro-paleontological and geochemical proxies and (iii) to show how to obtain chronological control on past storm events recorded in the sedimentary successions. The challenges that paleotempestology studies still face in the reconstruction of representative and reliable storm-chronologies using these various proxies are discussed, and future research prospects are outlined.

  2. Climate variations and changes in extreme climate events in Russia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bulygina, O N; Razuvaev, V N; Korshunova, N N; Groisman, P Ya

    2007-01-01

    Daily temperature (mean, minimum and maximum) and atmospheric precipitation data from 857 stations are used to analyze variations in the space-time distribution of extreme temperatures and precipitation across Russia during the past six decades. The seasonal numbers of days (N) when daily air temperatures (diurnal temperature range, precipitation) were higher or lower than selected thresholds are used as indices of climatic extremes. Linear trends in N are calculated for each station for the time period of interest. The seasonal numbers of days (for each season) with maximum temperatures higher than the 95th percentile have increased over most of Russia, with minimum temperatures lower than the 5th percentile having decreased. A tendency for the decrease in the number of days with abnormally high diurnal temperature range is observed over most of Russia. In individual regions of Russia, however, a tendency for an increasing number of days with a large diurnal amplitude is found. The largest tendency for increasing number of days with heavy precipitation is observed in winter in Western Siberia and Yakutia

  3. Cause and Properties of the Extreme Space Weather Event of 2012 July 23

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Y. D.; Luhmann, J. G.; Kajdic, P.; Kilpua, E.; Lugaz, N.; Nitta, N.; Lavraud, B.; Bale, S. D.; Farrugia, C. J.; Galvin, A. B.

    2013-12-01

    Extreme space weather refers to extreme conditions in space driven by solar eruptions and subsequent disturbances in interplanetary space, or otherwise called solar superstorms. Understanding extreme space weather events is becoming ever more vital, as the vulnerability of our society and its technological infrastructure to space weather has increased dramatically. Instances of extreme space weather, however, are very rare by definition and therefore are difficult to study. Here we report and investigate an extreme event, which occurred on 2012 July 23 with a maximum speed of about 3050 km/s near the Sun. This event, with complete modern remote sensing and in situ observations from multiple vantage points, provides an unprecedented opportunity to study the cause and consequences of extreme space weather. It produced a superfast shock with a peak solar wind speed of 2246 km/s and a superstrong magnetic cloud with a peak magnetic field of 109 nT observed near 1 AU at STEREO A. The record solar wind speed and magnetic field would produce a record geomagnetic storm since the space era with a minimum Dst of -1200 - -600 nT, if this event hit the Earth. We demonstrate how successive coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can be enhanced into a solar superstorm as they interact en route from the Sun to 1 AU. These results not only provide a benchmark for studies of extreme space weather, but also present a new view of how an extreme space weather event can be generated from usual solar eruptions.

  4. The relationship between extreme weather events and crop losses in central Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Li-Wei

    2017-09-01

    The frequency of extreme weather events, which cause severe crop losses, is increasing. This study investigates the relationship between crop losses and extreme weather events in central Taiwan from 2003 to 2015 and determines the main factors influencing crop losses. Data regarding the crop loss area and meteorological information were obtained from government agencies. The crops were categorised into the following five groups: `grains', `vegetables', `fruits', `flowers' and `other crops'. The extreme weather events and their synoptic weather patterns were categorised into six and five groups, respectively. The data were analysed using the z score, correlation coefficient and stepwise regression model. The results show that typhoons had the highest frequency of all extreme weather events (58.3%). The largest crop loss area (4.09%) was caused by two typhoons and foehn wind in succession. Extreme wind speed coupled with heavy rainfall is an important factor affecting the losses in the grain and vegetable groups. Extreme wind speed is a common variable that affects the loss of `grains', `vegetables', `fruits' and `flowers'. Consecutive extreme weather events caused greater crop losses than individual events. Crops with long production times suffered greater losses than those with short production times. This suggests that crops with physical structures that can be easily damaged and long production times would benefit from protected cultivation to maintain food security.

  5. Uncertainty related to Environmental Data and Estimated Extreme Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Burcharth, H. F.

    The design loads on rubble mound breakwaters are almost entirely determined by the environmental conditions, i.e. sea state, water levels, sea bed characteristics, etc. It is the objective of sub-group B to identify the most important environmental parameters and evaluate the related uncertainties...... including those corresponding to extreme estimates typically used for design purposes. Basically a design condition is made up of a set of parameter values stemming from several environmental parameters. To be able to evaluate the uncertainty related to design states one must know the corresponding joint....... Consequently this report deals mainly with each parameter separately. Multi parameter problems are briefly discussed in section 9. It is important to notice that the quantified uncertainties reported in section 7.7 represent what might be regarded as typical figures to be used only when no more qualified...

  6. Wave Refraction During the May 2002 Rarefaction Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, C. W.; Mullan, D. J.; Ness, N. F.; Skoug, R. M.

    2002-12-01

    In previous work [Smith et al., 2001] we examined IMF wave refraction during the May 1999 rarefaction interval known as ``The Day The Solar Wind Disappeared.'' On that day, Alfvén speeds remained elevated over an extended region. Analysis of the recorded ACE fields and plasma data revealed depressed magnetic fluctuation levels, reduced compression in the fluctuations, and a reduced wave-like component within the region of elevated Alfvén speed, all consistent with wave refraction. The May 2002 event provides a third such period (the second identified event occured 2 weeks prior to the May 1999 period) and it again demonstrates properties which are consistent with refraction. Smith, C.~W., D.~J. Mullan, N.~F. Ness, R.~M. Skoug, and J.~Steinberg, Day the solar wind almost disappeared: Magnetic field fluctuations, wave refraction and dissipation, J. Geophys. Res., A106, 18,625--18,634, 2001. Efforts at the Bartol Research Institute were supported by CIT subcontract PC251439 under NASA grant NAG5-6912 for support of the ACE magnetic field experiment and by the NASA Delaware Space College Grant. Work at Los Alamos was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy with financial support from the NASA ACE program.

  7. Extreme-event geoelectric hazard maps: Chapter 9

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, Jeffrey J.; Bedrosian, Paul A.

    2018-01-01

    Maps of geoelectric amplitude covering about half the continental United States are presented that will be exceeded, on average, once per century in response to an extreme-intensity geomagnetic disturbance. These maps are constructed using an empirical parameterization of induction: convolving latitude-dependent statistical maps of extreme-value geomagnetic disturbances, obtained from decades of 1-minute magnetic observatory data, with local estimates of Earth-surface impedance obtained at discrete geographic sites from magnetotelluric surveys. Geoelectric amplitudes are estimated for geomagnetic waveforms having a 240-s (and 1200-s) sinusoidal period and amplitudes over 10 min (1 h) that exceed a once-per-century threshold. As a result of the combination of geographic differences in geomagnetic variation and Earth-surface impedance, once-per-century geoelectric amplitudes span more than two orders of magnitude and are a highly granular function of location. Specifically for north-south 240-s induction, once-per-century geoelectric amplitudes across large parts of the United States have a median value of 0.34 V/km; for east-west variation, they have a median value of 0.23 V/km. In Northern Minnesota, amplitudes exceed 14.00 V/km for north-south geomagnetic variation (23.34 V/km for east-west variation), while just over 100 km away, amplitudes are only 0.08 V/km (0.02 V/km). At some sites in the northern-central United States, once-per-century geoelectric amplitudes exceed the 2 V/km realized in Québec during the March 1989 storm.

  8. PROJECTION EFFECTS IN CORONAL DIMMINGS AND ASSOCIATED EUV WAVE EVENT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dissauer, K.; Temmer, M.; Veronig, A. M.; Vanninathan, K. [IGAM/Institute of Physics, University of Graz, Universitätsplatz 5/II, A-8010 Graz (Austria); Magdalenić, J., E-mail: karin.dissauer@uni-graz.at [Solar-Terrestrial Center of Excellence-SIDC, Royal Observatory of Belgium, Av. Circulaire 3, B-1180 Brussels (Belgium)

    2016-10-20

    We investigate the high-speed ( v > 1000 km s{sup −1}) extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) wave associated with an X1.2 flare and coronal mass ejection (CME) from NOAA active region 11283 on 2011 September 6 (SOL2011-09-06T22:12). This EUV wave features peculiar on-disk signatures; in particular, we observe an intermittent “disappearance” of the front for 120 s in Solar Dynamics Observatory ( SDO )/AIA 171, 193, 211 Å data, whereas the 335 Å filter, sensitive to hotter plasmas ( T ∼ 2.5 MK), shows a continuous evolution of the wave front. The eruption was also accompanied by localized coronal dimming regions. We exploit the multi-point quadrature position of SDO and STEREO-A , to make a thorough analysis of the EUV wave evolution, with respect to its kinematics and amplitude evolution and reconstruct the SDO line-of-sight (LOS) direction of the identified coronal dimming regions in STEREO-A . We show that the observed intensities of the dimming regions in SDO /AIA depend on the structures that are lying along their LOS and are the combination of their individual intensities, e.g., the expanding CME body, the enhanced EUV wave, and the CME front. In this context, we conclude that the intermittent disappearance of the EUV wave in the AIA 171, 193, and 211 Å filters, which are channels sensitive to plasma with temperatures below ∼2 MK is also caused by such LOS integration effects. These observations clearly demonstrate that single-view image data provide us with limited insight to correctly interpret coronal features.

  9. Characteristics of offshore extreme wind-waves detected by surface drifters with a low-cost GPS wave sensor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komatsu, Kosei

    Wind-generated waves have been recognized as one of the most important factors of the sea surface roughness which plays crucial roles in various air-sea interactions such as energy, mo-mentum, heat and gas exchanges. At the same time, wind waves with extreme wave heights representatively called as freak or rogue waves have been a matter of great concern for many people involved in shipping, fishing, constracting, surfing and other marine activities, because such extreme waves frequently affect on the marine activities and sometimes cause serious dis-asters. Nevertheless, investigations of actual conditions for the evolution of wind waves in the offshore region are less and sparse in contrast to dense monitoring networks in the coastal re-gions because of difficulty of offshore observation with high accuracy. Recently accurate in situ observation of offshore wind waves is getting possible at low cost owing to a wave height and di-rection sensor developed by Harigae et al. (2004) by installing a point-positioning GPS receiver on a surface drifting buoy. The point-positioning GPS sensor can extract three dimensional movements of the buoy excited by ocean waves with minimizing effects of GPS point-positioning errors through the use of a high-pass filter. Two drifting buoys equipped with the GPS-based wave sensor charged by solar cells were drifted in the western North Pacific and one of them continued to observe wind waves during 16 months from Sep. 2007. The RMSE of the GPS-based wave sensor was less than 10cm in significant wave height and about 1s in significant wave period in comparison with other sensors, i.e. accelerometers installed on drifting buoys of Japan Meteorological Agency, ultrasonic sensors placed at the Hiratsuka observation station of the University of Tokyo and altimeter of the JASON-1. The GPS-based wave buoys enabled us to detect freak waves defined as waves whose height is more than twice the significant wave height. The observation conducted by

  10. Simulating the Impacts of Climate Extremes Across Sectors: The Case of the 2003 European Heat Wave

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schewe, J.; Zhao, F.; Reyer, C.; Breuer, L.; Coll, M.; Deryng, D.; Eddy, T.; Elliott, J. W.; Francois, L. M.; Friend, A. D.; Gerten, D.; Gosling, S.; Gudmundsson, L.; Huber, V.; Kim, H.; Lotze, H. K.; Orth, R.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Tittensor, D.; Vautard, R.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Wada, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Increased occurrence of extreme climate or weather events is one of the most damaging consequences of global climate change today and in the future. Estimating the impacts of such extreme events across different human and natural systems is crucial for quantifying overall risks from climate change. Are current models fit for this task? Here we use the 2003 European heat wave and drought (EHW) as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, and evaluate how accurately its impacts are reproduced by a multi-sectoral "super-ensemble" of state-of-the-art impacts models. Our study combines, for the first time, impacts on agriculture, freshwater resources, terrestrial and marine ecosystems, energy, and human health in a consistent multi-model framework. We identify key impacts of the 2003 EHW reported in the literature and/or recorded in publicly available databases, and examine how closely the models reproduce those impacts, applying the same measure of impact magnitude across different sectors. Preliminary results are mixed: While the EHW's impacts on water resources (streamflow) are reproduced well by most global hydrological models, not all crop and natural vegetation models reproduce the magnitude of impacts on agriculture and ecosystem productivity, respectively, and their performance varies by country or region. A hydropower capacity model matches reported hydropower generation anomalies only in some countries, and estimates of heat-related excess mortality from a set of statistical models are consistent with literature reports only for some of the cities investigated. We present a synthesis of simulated and observed impacts across sectors, and reflect on potential improvements in modeling and analyzing cross-sectoral impacts.

  11. Impact of environmental factors on the distribution of extreme scouring (gouging) event, Canadian Beaufort shelf

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blasco, Steve [Geological Survey of Canada, Dartmouth (Canada); Carr, Erin; Campbell, Patrick [Canadian Seabed Research Ltd., Porters Lake (Canada); Shearer, Jim [Shearer Consulting, Ottawa (Canada)

    2011-07-01

    A knowledge of the presence of scours, their dimensions and their return frequencies is highly important in the development of hydrocarbon offshore structures. Mapping surveys have identified 290 extreme scour events across the Canadian Beaufort shelf. This paper investigated the impact of environmental factors on the distribution of extreme scouring events in the Canadian Beaufort shelf. This study used the NEWBASE database of new ice scours to perform an analysis of the scours appearance mechanisms. The geotechnical zonation, the bathymetry and the shelf gradient were evaluated using these data. Estimation of the surficial sediment type, the surficial sediment thickness and sea ice regime were also made. It was found that the spatial distribution of extreme scour events is controlled by sea-ice regime, bathymetry and geotechnical zonation. The results obtained from mapping surveys suggested that the key controlling environmental factors may combine to limit the depth of extreme scour events to 5 meters.

  12. Indications of an extreme event deposits along the west coast of India: evidences from GPR investigations

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Loveson, V.J.; Gujar, A.R.; Iyer, S.D.; Srivastava, P.; Tirodkar, G.; Luis, R.A.A.

    to an extreme event. Sand samples were collected from two trial pits along the GPR profiles to understand the sedimentology and mineralogy in the backshore area. These data together with beach profiles and geomorphological maps suggest that the sands were...

  13. Extreme events in the Dudetes Mountains - Their long-term geomorphic impact and possible controlling factors

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Migon, P.; Hrádek, Mojmír; Parzoch, K.

    2002-01-01

    Roč. 36, č. 36 (2002), s. 29-49 ISSN 0081-6434 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z3086906 Keywords : extreme events * debris flow * landslide-floods Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography

  14. Statistics of extreme events in Chinese stock markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu Gan-Hua; Qiu Lu; Li Xin-Li; Yang Yue; Yang Hui-Jie; Jiang Yan; Stephen Mutua

    2014-01-01

    We investigate the impact of financial factors on daily volume recurrent time intervals in the developing Chinese stock markets. The tails of probability distribution functions (PDFs) of volume recurrent intervals behave as a power-law, and the scaling exponent decreases with the increase of stock lifetime, which are similar to those in the US stock markets, and they are typical representatives of developed markets. The difference is that the power-law exponent values remain almost the same with the changes of market capitalization, mean volume, and mean trading value, respectively. These findings enrich the results for event statistics for financial markets. (interdisciplinary physics and related areas of science and technology)

  15. Power System Extreme Event Detection: The VulnerabilityFrontier

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lesieutre, Bernard C.; Pinar, Ali; Roy, Sandip

    2007-10-17

    In this work we apply graph theoretic tools to provide aclose bound on a frontier relating the number of line outages in a gridto the power disrupted by the outages. This frontier describes theboundary of a space relating the possible severity of a disturbance interms of power disruption, from zero to some maximum on the boundary, tothe number line outages involved in the event. We present the usefulnessof this analysis with a complete analysis of a 30 bus system, and presentresults for larger systems.

  16. 76 FR 74776 - Forum-Trends in Extreme Winds, Waves, and Extratropical Storms Along the Coasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-01

    ... Winds, Waves, and Extratropical Storms Along the Coasts AGENCY: National Environmental Satellite, Data...-extratropical-storms/home . FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Brooke Stewart, National Climatic Data Center, 151.../noaa.gov/extreme-winds-waves-extratropical-storms/home . Topics To Be Addressed This forum will address...

  17. Quantifying the Extremity of Windstorms for Regions Featuring Infrequent Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walz, M. A.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Kruschke, T.; Rust, H.; Ulbrich, U.

    2017-12-01

    This paper introduces the Distribution-Independent Storm Severity Index (DI-SSI). The DI-SSI represents an approach to quantify the severity of exceptional surface wind speeds of large scale windstorms that is complementary to the Storm Severity Index (SSI) introduced by Leckebusch et al. (2008). While the SSI approaches the extremeness of a storm from a meteorological and potential loss (impact) perspective, the DI-SSI defines the severity in a more climatological perspective. The idea is to assign equal index values to wind speeds of the same singularity (e.g. the 99th percentile) under consideration of the shape of the tail of the local wind speed climatology. Especially in regions at the edge of the classical storm track the DI-SSI shows more equitable severity estimates, e.g. for the extra-tropical cyclone Klaus. Here were compare the integral severity indices for several prominent windstorm in the European domain and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the respective index. In order to compare the indices, their relation with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is studied, which is one of the main large scale drivers for the intensity of European windstorms. Additionally we can identify a significant relationship between the frequency and intensity of windstorms for large parts of the European domain.

  18. Observation of two-dimensional Faraday waves in extremely shallow depth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiaochen; Yu, Zhengyue; Liao, Shijun

    2015-09-01

    A family of two-dimensional Faraday waves in extremely shallow depth (1 mm to 2 mm) of absolute ethanol are observed experimentally using a Hele-Shaw cell that vibrates vertically. The same phenomena are not observed by means of water, ethanol solution, and silicone oil. These Faraday waves are quite different from the traditional ones. These phenomena are helpful to deepen and enrich our understandings about Faraday waves, and besides provide a challenging problem for computational fluid dynamics.

  19. Extremal bounds on drift wave growth rates and transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fowler, T.K.

    1990-03-01

    A variational technique is used to obtain bounds on the growth constant γ versus wave number κ for plasma drift waves. We find, for T i = T e , γ * (1 + 3/√2 η) in usual notation. This agrees closely with dispersion---relation results that have had good success in explaining global confinement times in tokamaks based on transport coefficients of the form (γ/κ 2 ). The present method is easier to calculate and results are of such general nature as to give greater assurance that nothing has been missed. The method is based on the time behavior of a free energy function that is chosen to be a constant of motion for an idealized Maxwellian plasma without currents, and almost constant for small departures from this ideal state. The underlying premise associating the variational technique with drift waves remains conjectural. 6 refs

  20. The magnitude and effects of extreme solar particle events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiggens Piers

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The solar energetic particle (SEP radiation environment is an important consideration for spacecraft design, spacecraft mission planning and human spaceflight. Herein is presented an investigation into the likely severity of effects of a very large Solar Particle Event (SPE on technology and humans in space. Fluences for SPEs derived using statistical models are compared to historical SPEs to verify their appropriateness for use in the analysis which follows. By combining environment tools with tools to model effects behind varying layers of spacecraft shielding it is possible to predict what impact a large SPE would be likely to have on a spacecraft in Near-Earth interplanetary space or geostationary Earth orbit. Also presented is a comparison of results generated using the traditional method of inputting the environment spectra, determined using a statistical model, into effects tools and a new method developed as part of the ESA SEPEM Project allowing for the creation of an effect time series on which statistics, previously applied to the flux data, can be run directly. The SPE environment spectra is determined and presented as energy integrated proton fluence (cm−2 as a function of particle energy (in MeV. This is input into the SHIELDOSE-2, MULASSIS, NIEL, GRAS and SEU effects tools to provide the output results. In the case of the new method for analysis, the flux time series is fed directly into the MULASSIS and GEMAT tools integrated into the SEPEM system. The output effect quantities include total ionising dose (in rads, non-ionising energy loss (MeV g−1, single event upsets (upsets/bit and the dose in humans compared to established limits for stochastic (or cancer-causing effects and tissue reactions (such as acute radiation sickness in humans given in grey-equivalent and sieverts respectively.

  1. Thermotolerance and Photosystem II Behaviour in Co-occuring Temperate Tree Species Exposed to Short-term Extreme Heat Waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guha, A.; Warren, J.; Cummings, C.; Han, J.

    2017-12-01

    Thermal stress can induce irreversible photodamage with longer consequences for plant metabolism. We focused on photosystem II (PSII) behaviour to understand how this complex responds in different co-occuring temperate trees exposed to short-term extreme heat waves. The study was designed for understanding complex heat tolerance mechanisms in trees. During manipulative heat-wave experiments, we monitored instantaneous PSII performance and tracked both transient and chronic PSII damages using chlorophyll a fluorescence characteristics. Fluorescence signals were used to simulate PSII bioenergetic processes. The light (Fv'/Fm') and dark-adapted (Fv/Fm) fluorescence traits including fast induction kinetics (OJIP), electron transport rate, PSII operating efficiency and quenching capacities were significantly affected by the heat treatments. Loss in PSII efficiency was more apparent in species like black cottonwood, yellow poplar, walnuts and conifers, whereas oaks maintained relatively better PSII functions. The post-heat recovery of Fv/Fm varied across the studied species showing differential carry over effects. PSII down-regulation was one of dominant factors for the loss in operational photosynthesis during extreme heat wave events. Both light and dark-adapted fluorescence characteristics showed loss in photo-regulatory functions and photodamage. Some resilient species showed rapid recovery from transient PSII damage, whereas fingerprints of chronic PSII damage were observed in susceptibles. Thresholds for Fv/Fm and non-photochemical quenching were identified for the studied species. PSII malfunctioning was largely associated with the observed photosynthetic down-regulation during heat wave treatments, however, its physiological recovery should be a key factor to determine species resilience to short-term extreme heat wave events.

  2. Wave-mixing with high-order harmonics in extreme ultraviolet region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dao, Lap Van; Dinh, Khuong Ba; Le, Hoang Vu; Gaffney, Naylyn; Hannaford, Peter

    2015-01-01

    We report studies of the wave-mixing process in the extreme ultraviolet region with two near-infrared driving and controlling pulses with incommensurate frequencies (at 1400 nm and 800 nm). A non-collinear scheme for the two beams is used in order to spatially separate and to characterise the properties of the high-order wave-mixing field. We show that the extreme ultraviolet frequency mixing can be treated by perturbative, very high-order nonlinear optics; the modification of the wave-packet of the free electron needs to be considered in this process

  3. Temporal energy partitions of Florida extreme sea level events as a function of Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Park

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available An energy-conservative metric based on the discrete wavelet transform is applied to assess the relative energy distribution of extreme sea level events across different temporal scales. The metric is applied to coastal events at Key West and Pensacola Florida as a function of two Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO regimes. Under AMO warm conditions there is a small but significant redistribution of event energy from nearly static into more dynamic (shorter duration timescales at Key West, while at Pensacola the AMO-dependent changes in temporal event behaviour are less pronounced. Extreme events with increased temporal dynamics might be consistent with an increase in total energy of event forcings which may be a reflection of more energetic storm events during AMO warm phases. As dynamical models mature to the point of providing regional climate index predictability, coastal planners may be able to consider such temporal change metrics in planning scenarios.

  4. Large-scale Meteorological Patterns Associated with Extreme Precipitation Events over Portland, OR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aragon, C.; Loikith, P. C.; Lintner, B. R.; Pike, M.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme precipitation events can have profound impacts on human life and infrastructure, with broad implications across a range of stakeholders. Changes to extreme precipitation events are a projected outcome of climate change that warrants further study, especially at regional- to local-scales. While global climate models are generally capable of simulating mean climate at global-to-regional scales with reasonable skill, resiliency and adaptation decisions are made at local-scales where most state-of-the-art climate models are limited by coarse resolution. Characterization of large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation events at local-scales can provide climatic information without this scale limitation, thus facilitating stakeholder decision-making. This research will use synoptic climatology as a tool by which to characterize the key large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation events in the Portland, Oregon metro region. Composite analysis of meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation days, and associated watershed-specific flooding, is employed to enhance understanding of the climatic drivers behind such events. The self-organizing maps approach is then used to characterize the within-composite variability of the large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation events, allowing us to better understand the different types of meteorological conditions that lead to high-impact precipitation events and associated hydrologic impacts. A more comprehensive understanding of the meteorological drivers of extremes will aid in evaluation of the ability of climate models to capture key patterns associated with extreme precipitation over Portland and to better interpret projections of future climate at impact-relevant scales.

  5. Climate Change Extreme Events: Meeting the Information Needs of Water Resource Managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quay, R.; Garfin, G. M.; Dominguez, F.; Hirschboeck, K. K.; Woodhouse, C. A.; Guido, Z.; White, D. D.

    2013-12-01

    Information about climate has long been used by water managers to develop short term and long term plans and strategies for regional and local water resources. Inherent within longer term forecasts is an element of uncertainty, which is particularly evident in Global Climate model results for precipitation. For example in the southwest estimates in the flow of the Colorado River based on GCM results indicate changes from 120% or current flow to 60%. Many water resource managers are now using global climate model down scaled estimates results as indications of potential climate change as part of that planning. They are addressing the uncertainty within these estimates by using an anticipatory planning approach looking at a range of possible futures. One aspect of climate that is important for such planning are estimates of future extreme storm (short term) and drought (long term) events. However, the climate science of future possible changes in extreme events is less mature than general climate change science. At a recent workshop among climate scientists and water managers in the southwest, it was concluded the science of climate change extreme events is at least a decade away from being robust enough to be useful for water managers in their water resource management activities. However, it was proposed that there are existing estimates and records of past flooding and drought events that could be combined with general climate change science to create possible future events. These derived events could be of sufficient detail to be used by water resource managers until such time that the science of extreme events is able to provide more detailed estimates. Based on the results of this workshop and other work being done by the Decision Center for a Desert City at Arizona State University and the Climate Assessment for the Southwest center at University of Arizona., this article will 1) review what are the extreme event data needs of Water Resource Managers in the

  6. EVT in electricity price modeling : extreme value theory not only on the extreme events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marossy, Z.

    2007-01-01

    The extreme value theory (EVT) is commonly used in electricity and financial risk modeling. In this study, EVT was used to model the distribution of electricity prices. The model was built on the price formation in electricity auction markets. This paper reviewed the 3 main modeling approaches used to describe the distribution of electricity prices. The first approach is based on a stochastic model of the electricity price time series and uses this stochastic model to generate the given distribution. The second approach involves electricity supply and demand factors that determine the price distribution. The third approach involves agent-based models which use simulation techniques to write down the price distribution. A fourth modeling approach was then proposed to describe the distribution of electricity prices. The new approach determines the distribution of electricity prices directly without knowing anything about the data generating process or market driving forces. Empirical data confirmed that the distribution of electricity prices have a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. 8 refs., 2 tabs., 5 figs

  7. Economic Evaluations of the Health Impacts of Weather-Related Extreme Events: A Scoping Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmitt, Laetitia H. M.; Graham, Hilary M.; White, Piran C. L.

    2016-01-01

    The frequency and severity of extreme events is expected to increase under climate change. There is a need to understand the economic consequences of human exposure to these extreme events, to underpin decisions on risk reduction. We undertook a scoping review of economic evaluations of the adverse health effects from exposure to weather-related extreme events. We searched PubMed, Embase and Web of Science databases with no restrictions to the type of evaluations. Twenty studies were included, most of which were recently published. Most studies have been undertaken in the U.S. (nine studies) or Asia (seven studies), whereas we found no studies in Africa, Central and Latin America nor the Middle East. Extreme temperatures accounted for more than a third of the pool of studies (seven studies), closely followed by flooding (six studies). No economic study was found on drought. Whilst studies were heterogeneous in terms of objectives and methodology, they clearly indicate that extreme events will become a pressing public health issue with strong welfare and distributional implications. The current body of evidence, however, provides little information to support decisions on the allocation of scarce resources between risk reduction options. In particular, the review highlights a significant lack of research attention to the potential cost-effectiveness of interventions that exploit the capacity of natural ecosystems to reduce our exposure to, or ameliorate the consequences of, extreme events. PMID:27834843

  8. Economic Evaluations of the Health Impacts of Weather-Related Extreme Events: A Scoping Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laetitia H. M. Schmitt

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The frequency and severity of extreme events is expected to increase under climate change. There is a need to understand the economic consequences of human exposure to these extreme events, to underpin decisions on risk reduction. We undertook a scoping review of economic evaluations of the adverse health effects from exposure to weather-related extreme events. We searched PubMed, Embase and Web of Science databases with no restrictions to the type of evaluations. Twenty studies were included, most of which were recently published. Most studies have been undertaken in the U.S. (nine studies or Asia (seven studies, whereas we found no studies in Africa, Central and Latin America nor the Middle East. Extreme temperatures accounted for more than a third of the pool of studies (seven studies, closely followed by flooding (six studies. No economic study was found on drought. Whilst studies were heterogeneous in terms of objectives and methodology, they clearly indicate that extreme events will become a pressing public health issue with strong welfare and distributional implications. The current body of evidence, however, provides little information to support decisions on the allocation of scarce resources between risk reduction options. In particular, the review highlights a significant lack of research attention to the potential cost-effectiveness of interventions that exploit the capacity of natural ecosystems to reduce our exposure to, or ameliorate the consequences of, extreme events.

  9. Prevention through policy: Urban macroplastic leakages to the marine environment during extreme rainfall events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Axelsson, Charles; van Sebille, Erik

    2017-11-15

    The leakage of large plastic litter (macroplastics) into the ocean is a major environmental problem. A significant fraction of this leakage originates from coastal cities, particularly during extreme rainfall events. As coastal cities continue to grow, finding ways to reduce this macroplastic leakage is extremely pertinent. Here, we explore why and how coastal cities can reduce macroplastic leakages during extreme rainfall events. Using nine global cities as a basis, we establish that while cities actively create policies that reduce plastic leakages, more needs to be done. Nonetheless, these policies are economically, socially and environmentally cobeneficial to the city environment. While the lack of political engagement and economic concerns limit these policies, lacking social motivation and engagement is the largest limitation towards implementing policy. We recommend cities to incentivize citizen and municipal engagement with responsible usage of plastics, cleaning the environment and preparing for future extreme rainfall events. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  10. Short-term cropland responses to temperature extreme events during late winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Simon, G.; Alberti, G.; Delle Vedove, G.; Peressotti, A.; Zaldei, A.; Miglietta, F.

    2013-08-01

    In recent years, several studies have focused on terrestrial ecosystem response to extreme events. Most of this research has been conducted in natural ecosystems, but few have considered agroecosystems. In this study, we investigated the impact of a manipulated warmer or cooler late winter/early spring on the carbon budget and final harvest of a soybean crop (Glycine max (L.) Merr.). Soil temperature was altered by manipulating soil albedo by covering the soil surface with a layer of inert silica gravel. We tested three treatments - cooling (Co), warming (W), mix (M) - and control (C). An automated system continuously measured soil heterotrophic respiration (Rh), soil temperature profiles, and soil water content across the entire year in each plot. Phenological phases were periodically assessed and final harvest was measured in each plot. Results showed that treatments had only a transient effect on daily Rh rates, which did not result in a total annual carbon budget significantly different from control, even though cooling showed a significant reduction in final harvest. We also observed anticipation in emergence in both W and M treatments and a delay in emergence for Co. Moreover, plant density and growth increased in W and M and decreased in Co. In conclusion, from the results of our experiment we can assert that an increase in the frequency of both heat and cold waves is unlikely to have large effects on the overall annual carbon balance of irrigated croplands.

  11. Dynamics of 2013 Sudden Stratospheric Warming event and its impact on cold weather over Eurasia: Role of planetary wave reflection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nath, Debashis; Chen, Wen; Zelin, Cai; Pogoreltsev, Alexander Ivanovich; Wei, Ke

    2016-04-07

    In the present study, we investigate the impact of stratospheric planetary wave reflection on tropospheric weather over Central Eurasia during the 2013 Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event. We analyze EP fluxes and Plumb wave activity fluxes to study the two and three dimensional aspects of wave propagation, respectively. The 2013 SSW event is excited by the combined influence of wavenumber 1 (WN1) and wavenumber 2 (WN2) planetary waves, which makes the event an unusual one and seems to have significant impact on tropospheric weather regime. We observe an extraordinary development of a ridge over the Siberian Tundra and the North Pacific during first development stage (last week of December 2012) and later from the North Atlantic in the second development stage (first week of January 2013), and these waves appear to be responsible for the excitation of the WN2 pattern during the SSW. The wave packets propagated upward and were then reflected back down to central Eurasia due to strong negative wind shear in the upper stratospheric polar jet, caused by the SSW event. Waves that propagated downward led to the formation of a deep trough over Eurasia and brought extreme cold weather over Kazakhstan, the Southern part of Russia and the Northwestern part of China during mid-January 2013.

  12. A statistical methodology for the estimation of extreme wave conditions for offshore renewable applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Kalogeri, Christina; Galanis, George

    2015-01-01

    and post-process outputs from a high resolution numerical wave modeling system for extreme wave estimation based on the significant wave height. This approach is demonstrated through the data analysis at a relatively deep water site, FINO 1, as well as a relatively shallow water area, coastal site Horns...... as a characteristic index of extreme wave conditions. The results from the proposed methodology seem to be in a good agreement with the measurements at both the relatively deep, open water and the shallow, coastal water sites, providing a potentially useful tool for offshore renewable energy applications. © 2015...... Rev, which is located in the North Sea, west of Denmark. The post-processing targets at correcting the modeled time series of the significant wave height, in order to match the statistics of the corresponding measurements, including not only the conventional parameters such as the mean and standard...

  13. Extremely intense ELF magnetosonic waves: A survey of polar observations

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Tsurutani, B. T.; Falkowski, B. J.; Pickett, J. S.; Verkhoglyadova, O. P.; Santolík, Ondřej; Lakhina, G. S.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 119, č. 2 (2014), s. 964-977 ISSN 2169-9380 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP205/10/2279; GA MŠk(CZ) LH11122 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : Magneotosonic waves * plasmaspheric hiss * plasmasphere * substorm protons * mode conversion Subject RIV: BL - Plasma and Gas Discharge Physics Impact factor: 3.426, year: 2014 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013JA019284/abstract

  14. UNCOVERING THE WAVE NATURE OF THE EIT WAVE FOR THE 2010 JANUARY 17 EVENT THROUGH ITS CORRELATION TO THE BACKGROUND MAGNETOSONIC SPEED

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, X. H.; Feng, X. S.; Jiang, C. W.; Wu, S. T.; Wang, A. H.; Vourlidas, A.

    2011-01-01

    An EIT wave, which typically appears as a diffuse brightening that propagates across the solar disk, is one of the major discoveries of the Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. However, the physical nature of the so-called EIT wave continues to be debated. In order to understand the relationship between an EIT wave and its associated coronal wave front, we investigate the morphology and kinematics of the coronal mass ejection (CME)-EIT wave event that occurred on 2010 January 17. Using the observations of the SECCHI EUVI, COR1, and COR2 instruments on board the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observation-B, we track the shape and movements of the CME fronts along different radial directions to a distance of about 15 solar radii (R s ); for the EIT wave, we determine the propagation of the wave front on the solar surface along different propagating paths. The relation between the EIT wave speed, the CME speed, and the local fast-mode characteristic speed is also investigated. Our results demonstrate that the propagation of the CME front is much faster than that of the EIT wave on the solar surface, and that both the CME front and the EIT wave propagate faster than the fast-mode speed in their local environments. Specifically, we show a significant positive correlation between the EIT wave speed and the local fast-mode wave speed in the propagation paths of the EIT wave. Our findings support that the EIT wave under study is a fast-mode magnetohydrodynamic wave.

  15. Assessment of Observational Uncertainty in Extreme Precipitation Events over the Continental United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slinskey, E. A.; Loikith, P. C.; Waliser, D. E.; Goodman, A.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme precipitation events are associated with numerous societal and environmental impacts. Furthermore, anthropogenic climate change is projected to alter precipitation intensity across portions of the Continental United States (CONUS). Therefore, a spatial understanding and intuitive means of monitoring extreme precipitation over time is critical. Towards this end, we apply an event-based indicator, developed as a part of NASA's support of the ongoing efforts of the US National Climate Assessment, which assigns categories to extreme precipitation events based on 3-day storm totals as a basis for dataset intercomparison. To assess observational uncertainty across a wide range of historical precipitation measurement approaches, we intercompare in situ station data from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN), satellite-derived precipitation data from NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), gridded in situ station data from the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM), global reanalysis from NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis version 2 (MERRA 2), and regional reanalysis with gauge data assimilation from NCEP's North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). Results suggest considerable variability across the five-dataset suite in the frequency, spatial extent, and magnitude of extreme precipitation events. Consistent with expectations, higher resolution datasets were found to resemble station data best and capture a greater frequency of high-end extreme events relative to lower spatial resolution datasets. The degree of dataset agreement varies regionally, however all datasets successfully capture the seasonal cycle of precipitation extremes across the CONUS. These intercomparison results provide additional insight about observational uncertainty and the ability of a range of precipitation measurement and analysis products to capture extreme precipitation event climatology. While the event category threshold is fixed

  16. Survivability Mode and Extreme Loads on the Mooring Lines of the Wave Dragon Wave Energy Converter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Parmeggiani, Stefano; Kofoed, Jens Peter

    This report is a product of the cooperation agreement between Wave Dragon and Aalborg University regarding phase 2 of the development of the Wave Dragon Wave Energy Converter. The research is carried out by testing the 1:51.8 scale model of the Wave Dragon, aiming at the assessment of the surviva......This report is a product of the cooperation agreement between Wave Dragon and Aalborg University regarding phase 2 of the development of the Wave Dragon Wave Energy Converter. The research is carried out by testing the 1:51.8 scale model of the Wave Dragon, aiming at the assessment...... of the department of Civil Engineering at Aalborg University. The outcome of the research will be used as input for future research work aimed at the design of the mooring system and the certification of the structural design for the full scale Wave Dragon demonstrator....

  17. [Extreme Climatic Events in the Altai Republic According to Dendrochronological Data].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barinov, V V; Myglan, V S; Nazarov, A N; Vaganov, E A; Agatova, A R; Nepop, R K

    2016-01-01

    The results of dating of extreme climatic events by damage to the anatomical structure and missing tree rings of the Siberian larch in the upper forest boundary of the Altai Republic are given. An analysis of the spatial distribution of the revealed dates over seven plots (Kokcy, Chind, Ak-ha, Jelo, Tute, Tara, and Sukor) allowed us to distinguish the extreme events on interregional (1700, 1783, 1788, 1812, 1814, 1884), regional (1724, 1775, 1784, 1835, 1840, 1847, 1850, 1852, 1854, 1869, 1871, 1910, 1917, 1927, 1938, 1958, 1961), and local (1702, 1736, 1751, 1785, 1842, 1843,1874, 1885, 1886, 1919, 2007, and 2009) scales. It was shown that the events of an interregional scale correspond with the dates of major volcanic eruptions (Grimsvotn, Lakagigar, Etna, Awu, Tambora, Soufriere St. Vinsent, Mayon, and Krakatau volcanos) and extreme climatic events, crop failures, lean years, etc., registered in historical sources.

  18. Communicating natural hazards. The case of marine extreme events and the importance of the forecast's errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marone, Eduardo; Camargo, Ricardo

    2013-04-01

    Scientific knowledge has to fulfill some necessary conditions. Among them, it has to be properly communicated. Usually, scientists (mis)understand that the communication requirement is satisfied by publishing their results on peer reviewed journals. Society claims for information in other formats or languages and other tools and approaches have to be used, otherwise the scientific discoveries will not fulfill its social mean. However, scientists are not so well trained to do so. These facts are particularly relevant when the scientific work has to deal with natural hazards, which do not affect just a lab or a computer experiment, but the life and fate of human beings. We are actually working with marine extreme events related with sea level changes, waves and other coastal hazards. Primary, the work is developed on the classic scientific format, but focusing not only in the stochastic way of predicting such extreme events, but estimating the potential errors the forecasting methodologies intrinsically have. The scientific results are translated to a friendly format required by stakeholders (which are financing part of the work). Finally, we hope to produce a document prepared for the general public. Each of the targets has their own characteristics and we have to use the proper communication tools and languages. Also, when communicating such knowledge, we have to consider that stakeholders and general public have no obligation of understanding the scientific language, but scientists have the responsibility of translating their discoveries and predictions in a proper way. The information on coastal hazards is analyzed in statistical and numerical ways, departing from long term observation of, for instance, sea level. From the analysis it is possible to recognize different natural regimes and to present the return times of extreme events, while from the numerical models, properly tuned to reproduce the same past ocean behavior using hindcast approaches, it is

  19. Challenges of Tsunami Disaster and Extreme climate Events Along Coastal Region in Asia-Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaudhari, S.

    2017-12-01

    South Asia is more vulnerable to Geo disasters and impacts of climate changes in recent years. On 26 December 2004 massive waves triggered by an earthquake surged into coastal communities in Asia and East Africa with devastating force. Hitting Indonesia, Sri Lanka , Thailand and India hardest, the deadly waves swept more than 200 000 people to their deaths. Also in an another extreme climate change phenomenon during 2005 - 2006,causing heavy rains and flooding situation in the South Asia - Europe and Pacific region ,more than 100 million population in these regions are witnessing the social- economical and ecological risks and impacts due to climate changes and Geohazards. For mitigating geo-disasters, marine hazards and rehabilitation during post tsunami period, scientific knowledge is needed, requiring experienced research communities who can train the local population during tsunami rehabilitation. Several civil society institutions jointly started the initiatives on the problem identifications in management of risks in geo-disasters, tsunami rehabilitation ,Vulnerability and risk assessments for Geohazards etc., to investigate problems related to social-economic and ecological risks and management issues resulting from the December tsunami and Geo- disaster, to aid mitigation planning in affected areas and to educate scientists and local populations to form a basis for sustainable and economic solutions. The poster aims to assess the potential risk and hazard , technical issues, problems and damage arising from Tsunami in the Asia-pacific region in coastal geology, coastal ecosystems and coastal environmental systems . This poster deals with the status and issues of interactions between Human and Ocean Systems, Geo-risks, marine risks along coastal region of Asia- Pacific and also human influence on the earth system . The poster presentation focuses on capacity building of the local population, scientists and researchers for integration of human and ocean

  20. Climate Products and Services to Meet the Challenges of Extreme Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCalla, M. R.

    2008-12-01

    The 2002 Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (OFCM1)-sponsored report, Weather Information for Surface Transportation: National Needs Assessment Report, addressed meteorological needs for six core modes of surface transportation: roadway, railway, transit, marine transportation/operations, pipeline, and airport ground operations. The report's goal was to articulate the weather information needs and attendant surface transportation weather products and services for those entities that use, operate, and manage America's surface transportation infrastructure. The report documented weather thresholds and associated impacts which are critical for decision-making in surface transportation. More recently, the 2008 Climate Change Science Program's (CCSP) Synthesis and Assessment Product (SAP) 4.7 entitled, Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure: Gulf Coast Study, Phase I, included many of the impacts from the OFCM- sponsored report in Table 1.1 of this SAP.2 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that since 1950, there has been an increase in the number of heat waves, heavy precipitation events, and areas of drought. Moreover, the IPCC indicated that greater wind speeds could accompany more severe tropical cyclones.3 Taken together, the OFCM, CCSP, and IPCC reports indicate not only the significance of extreme events, but also the potential increasing significance of many of the weather thresholds and associated impacts which are critical for decision-making in surface transportation. Accordingly, there is a real and urgent need to understand what climate products and services are available now to address the weather thresholds within the surface transportation arena. It is equally urgent to understand what new climate products and services are needed to address these weather thresholds, and articulate what can be done to fill the gap between the

  1. Long-Term Climate Trends and Extreme Events in Northern Fennoscandia (1914–2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonja Kivinen

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available We studied climate trends and the occurrence of rare and extreme temperature and precipitation events in northern Fennoscandia in 1914–2013. Weather data were derived from nine observation stations located in Finland, Norway, Sweden and Russia. The results showed that spring and autumn temperatures and to a lesser extent summer temperatures increased significantly in the study region, the observed changes being the greatest for daily minimum temperatures. The number of frost days declined both in spring and autumn. Rarely cold winter, spring, summer and autumn seasons had a low occurrence and rarely warm spring and autumn seasons a high occurrence during the last 20-year interval (1994–2013, compared to the other 20-year intervals. That period was also characterized by a low number of days with extremely low temperature in all seasons (4–9% of all extremely cold days and a high number of April and October days with extremely high temperature (36–42% of all extremely warm days. A tendency of exceptionally high daily precipitation sums to grow even higher towards the end of the study period was also observed. To summarize, the results indicate a shortening of the cold season in northern Fennoscandia. Furthermore, the results suggest significant declines in extremely cold climate events in all seasons and increases in extremely warm climate events particularly in spring and autumn seasons.

  2. Impact of extreme weather events and climate change for health and social care systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis, Sarah; Fair, Alistair; Wistow, Jonathan; Val, Dimitri V; Oven, Katie

    2017-12-05

    This review, commissioned by the Research Councils UK Living With Environmental Change (LWEC) programme, concerns research on the impacts on health and social care systems in the United Kingdom of extreme weather events, under conditions of climate change. Extreme weather events considered include heatwaves, coldwaves and flooding. Using a structured review method, we consider evidence regarding the currently observed and anticipated future impacts of extreme weather on health and social care systems and the potential of preparedness and adaptation measures that may enhance resilience. We highlight a number of general conclusions which are likely to be of international relevance, although the review focussed on the situation in the UK. Extreme weather events impact the operation of health services through the effects on built, social and institutional infrastructures which support health and health care, and also because of changes in service demand as extreme weather impacts on human health. Strategic planning for extreme weather and impacts on the care system should be sensitive to within country variations. Adaptation will require changes to built infrastructure systems (including transport and utilities as well as individual care facilities) and also to institutional and social infrastructure supporting the health care system. Care sector organisations, communities and individuals need to adapt their practices to improve resilience of health and health care to extreme weather. Preparedness and emergency response strategies call for action extending beyond the emergency response services, to include health and social care providers more generally.

  3. Modeling extreme (Carrington-type) space weather events using three-dimensional MHD code simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngwira, C. M.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Glocer, A.

    2013-12-01

    There is growing concern over possible severe societal consequences related to adverse space weather impacts on man-made technological infrastructure and systems. In the last two decades, significant progress has been made towards the modeling of space weather events. Three-dimensional (3-D) global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) models have been at the forefront of this transition, and have played a critical role in advancing our understanding of space weather. However, the modeling of extreme space weather events is still a major challenge even for existing global MHD models. In this study, we introduce a specially adapted University of Michigan 3-D global MHD model for simulating extreme space weather events that have a ground footprint comparable (or larger) to the Carrington superstorm. Results are presented for an initial simulation run with ``very extreme'' constructed/idealized solar wind boundary conditions driving the magnetosphere. In particular, we describe the reaction of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system and the associated ground induced geoelectric field to such extreme driving conditions. We also discuss the results and what they might mean for the accuracy of the simulations. The model is further tested using input data for an observed space weather event to verify the MHD model consistence and to draw guidance for future work. This extreme space weather MHD model is designed specifically for practical application to the modeling of extreme geomagnetically induced electric fields, which can drive large currents in earth conductors such as power transmission grids.

  4. Analyses of Observed and Anticipated Changes in Extreme Climate Events in the Northwest Himalaya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dharmaveer Singh

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In this study, past (1970-2005 as well as future long term (2011-2099 trends in various extreme events of temperature and precipitation have been investigated over selected hydro-meteorological stations in the Sutlej river basin. The ensembles of two Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 models: third generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model and Hadley Centre Coupled Model have been used for simulation of future daily time series of temperature (maximum and minimum and precipitation under A2 emission scenario. Large scale atmospheric variables of both models and National Centre for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data sets have been downscaled using statistical downscaling technique at individual stations. A total number of 25 extreme indices of temperature (14 and precipitation (11 as specified by the Expert Team of the World Meteorological Organization and Climate Variability and Predictability are derived for the past and future periods. Trends in extreme indices are detected over time using the modified Mann-Kendall test method. The stations which have shown either decrease or no change in hot extreme events (i.e., maximum TMax, warm days, warm nights, maximum TMin, tropical nights, summer days and warm spell duration indicators for 1970–2005 and increase in cold extreme events (cool days, cool nights, frost days and cold spell duration indicators are predicted to increase and decrease respectively in the future. In addition, an increase in frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events is also predicted.

  5. An observational and modeling study of the August 2017 Florida climate extreme event.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konduru, R.; Singh, V.; Routray, A.

    2017-12-01

    A special report on the climate extremes by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) elucidates that the sole cause of disasters is due to the exposure and vulnerability of the human and natural system to the climate extremes. The cause of such a climate extreme could be anthropogenic or non-anthropogenic. Therefore, it is challenging to discern the critical factor of influence for a particular climate extreme. Such kind of perceptive study with reasonable confidence on climate extreme events is possible only if there exist any past case studies. A similar rarest climate extreme problem encountered in the case of Houston floods and extreme rainfall over Florida in August 2017. A continuum of hurricanes like Harvey and Irma targeted the Florida region and caused catastrophe. Due to the rarity of August 2017 Florida climate extreme event, it requires the in-depth study on this case. To understand the multi-faceted nature of the event, a study on the development of the Harvey hurricane and its progression and dynamics is significant. Current article focus on the observational and modeling study on the Harvey hurricane. A global model named as NCUM (The global UK Met office Unified Model (UM) operational at National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, India, was utilized to simulate the Harvey hurricane. The simulated rainfall and wind fields were compared with the observational datasets like Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission rainfall datasets and Era-Interim wind fields. The National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) automated tracking system was utilized to track the Harvey hurricane, and the tracks were analyzed statistically for different forecasts concerning the Harvey hurricane track of Joint Typhon Warning Centre. Further, the current study will be continued to investigate the atmospheric processes involved in the August 2017 Florida climate extreme event.

  6. Wave-induced extreme water levels in the Puerto Morelos fringing reef lagoon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Torres-Freyermuth

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Wave-induced extreme water levels in the Puerto Morelos fringing reef lagoon are investigated by means of a phase-resolving non-hydrostatic wave model (SWASH. This model solves the nonlinear shallow water equations including non-hydrostatic pressure. The one-dimensional version of the model is implemented in order to investigate wave transformation in fringing reefs. Firstly, the numerical model is validated with (i laboratory experiments conducted on a physical model (Demirbilek et al., 2007and (ii field observations (Coronado et al., 2007. Numerical results show good agreement with both experimental and field data. The comparison against the physical model results, for energetic wave conditions, indicates that high- and low-frequency wave transformation is well reproduced. Moreover, extreme water-level conditions measured during the passage of Hurricane Ivan in Puerto Morelos are also estimated by the numerical tool. Subsequently, the model is implemented at different along-reef locations in Puerto Morelos. Extreme water levels, wave-induced setup, and infragravity wave energy are estimated inside the reef lagoon for different storm wave conditions (Hs >2 m. The numerical results revealed a strong correlation between the offshore sea-swell wave energy and the setup. In contrast, infragravity waves are shown to be the result of a more complex pattern which heavily relies on the reef geometry. Indeed, the southern end of the reef lagoon provides evidence of resonance excitation, suggesting that the reef barrier may act as either a natural flood protection morphological feature, or as an inundation hazard enhancer depending on the incident wave conditions.

  7. Extremely frequency-widened terahertz wave generation using Cherenkov-type radiation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suizu, Koji; Koketsu, Kaoru; Shibuya, Takayuki; Tsutsui, Toshihiro; Akiba, Takuya; Kawase, Kodo

    2009-04-13

    Terahertz (THz) wave generation based on nonlinear frequency conversion is promising way for realizing a tunable monochromatic bright THz-wave source. Such a development of efficient and wide tunable THz-wave source depends on discovery of novel brilliant nonlinear crystal. Important factors of a nonlinear crystal for THz-wave generation are, 1. High nonlinearity and 2. Good transparency at THz frequency region. Unfortunately, many nonlinear crystals have strong absorption at THz frequency region. The fact limits efficient and wide tunable THz-wave generation. Here, we show that Cherenkov radiation with waveguide structure is an effective strategy for achieving efficient and extremely wide tunable THz-wave source. We fabricated MgO-doped lithium niobate slab waveguide with 3.8 microm of thickness and demonstrated difference frequency generation of THz-wave generation with Cherenkov phase matching. Extremely frequency-widened THz-wave generation, from 0.1 to 7.2 THz, without no structural dips successfully obtained. The tuning frequency range of waveguided Cherenkov radiation source was extremely widened compare to that of injection seeded-Terahertz Parametric Generator. The tuning range obtained in this work for THz-wave generation using lithium niobate crystal was the widest value in our knowledge. The highest THz-wave energy obtained was about 3.2 pJ, and the energy conversion efficiency was about 10(-5) %. The method can be easily applied for many conventional nonlinear crystals, results in realizing simple, reasonable, compact, high efficient and ultra broad band THz-wave sources.

  8. Tropospheric mid-latitude geopotential wave characteristics associated with strong wind events in the North Atlantic/European region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wild, Simon; Simmonds, Ian; Leckebusch, Gregor C.

    2015-04-01

    The variability of strong synoptic scale wind events in the mid-latitudes have long been linked to baroclinic wave activity in the mid troposphere. Previous studies have also shown that greater amplitudes of planetary waves in the mid troposphere are likely to increase the occurrence of regional extremes in temperature and precipitation. In this study we examine whether characteristics of planetary and synoptic mid-latitude waves show systematic anomalies in the North Atlantic/ European region which can be related to the occurrence of a strong surface wind event. We will mainly focus on two questions: 1) Do amplitudes for waves with different wave lengths show a systematic anomaly when a strong wind event occurs? 2) Can phases of the individual wave components be detected that favour strong wind events? In order to decompose the mid-tropospheric flow into longitudinal waves we employ the fast Fourier transform to the meridional mean of the geopotential height in 500hPa between 35° and 60°N for i) the entire latitude belt and ii) for a North Atlantic/European sector (36°W to 36°E). Our definition of strong wind events is based on the Storm Severity Index (SSI) alongside a wind tracking algorithm identifying areas of exceedances of the local 98th percentile of the 10m wind speed. First results using ERA-Interim Reanalysis from 1979 - 2014 for the extended winter season (ONDJFM) for the 50 most intense strong wind systems with respect to the SSI reveal a greater amplitude for all investigated wave numbers. Especially waves with wave lengths below 2000km show an increase of about 25% of the daily standard deviation on average. The distribution of wave phases for the different wave numbers with respect to the location of a strong wind event shows a less homogenous picture. There is however a high proportion of events that can be associated with phases around 3π/4 and 5π/4 of waves with lengths of around 6000km, equivalent to wave number 5 on a planetary scale

  9. Extreme weather events: Should drinking water quality management systems adapt to changing risk profiles?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Stuart J; Deere, Daniel; Leusch, Frederic D L; Humpage, Andrew; Jenkins, Madeleine; Cunliffe, David

    2015-11-15

    Among the most widely predicted and accepted consequences of global climate change are increases in both the frequency and severity of a variety of extreme weather events. Such weather events include heavy rainfall and floods, cyclones, droughts, heatwaves, extreme cold, and wildfires, each of which can potentially impact drinking water quality by affecting water catchments, storage reservoirs, the performance of water treatment processes or the integrity of distribution systems. Drinking water guidelines, such as the Australian Drinking Water Guidelines and the World Health Organization Guidelines for Drinking-water Quality, provide guidance for the safe management of drinking water. These documents present principles and strategies for managing risks that may be posed to drinking water quality. While these principles and strategies are applicable to all types of water quality risks, very little specific attention has been paid to the management of extreme weather events. We present a review of recent literature on water quality impacts of extreme weather events and consider practical opportunities for improved guidance for water managers. We conclude that there is a case for an enhanced focus on the management of water quality impacts from extreme weather events in future revisions of water quality guidance documents. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Living with extreme weather events - perspectives from climatology, geomorphological analysis, chronicles and opinion polls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auer, I.; Kirchengast, A.; Proske, H.

    2009-09-01

    The ongoing climate change debate focuses more and more on changing extreme events. Information on past events can be derived from a number of sources, such as instrumental data, residual impacts in the landscape, but also chronicles and people's memories. A project called "A Tale of Two Valleys” within the framework of the research program "proVision” allowed to study past extreme events in two inner-alpine valleys from the sources mentioned before. Instrumental climate time series provided information for the past 200 years, however great attention had to be given to the homogeneity of the series. To derive homogenized time series of selected climate change indices methods like HOCLIS and Vincent have been applied. Trend analyses of climate change indices inform about increase or decrease of extreme events. Traces of major geomorphodynamic processes of the past (e.g. rockfalls, landslides, debris flows) which were triggered or affected by extreme weather events are still apparent in the landscape and could be evaluated by geomorphological analysis using remote sensing and field data. Regional chronicles provided additional knowledge and covered longer periods back in time, however compared to meteorological time series they enclose a high degree of subjectivity and intermittent recordings cannot be obviated. Finally, questionnaires and oral history complemented our picture of past extreme weather events. People were differently affected and have different memories of it. The joint analyses of these four data sources showed agreement to some extent, however also showed some reasonable differences: meteorological data are point measurements only with a sometimes too coarse temporal resolution. Due to land-use changes and improved constructional measures the impact of an extreme meteorological event may be different today compared to earlier times.

  11. Developing a concept of social-ecological-technological systems to characterize resilience of urban areas and infrastructure to extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chester, M.; Grimm, N. B.; Redman, C.; Miller, T.; McPherson, T.; Munoz-Erickson, T.; Chandler, D. G.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is widely considered one of the greatest challenges to global sustainability, with extreme events being the most immediate way that people experience this phenomenon. Urban areas are particularly vulnerable to these events given their location, concentration of people, and increasingly complex and interdependent infrastructure. We are developing a conceptual framework for urban social-ecological-technological systems (SETS) that will allow researchers and practitioners to assess how infrastructure can be resilient, provide ecosystem services, improve social well being, and exploit new technologies in ways that benefit urban populations. The framework integrates the three domains of social and equity issues, environmental quality and protection, and technical/engineering aspects, to form a concept of infrastructure that occurs at the intersection of the domains. Examples show how the more common socioecological systems and socially sensitive engineering approaches that fail to incorporate the third dimension may elevate vulnerability to climate-related disaster. The SETS conceptual framework bridges currently siloed social science, environmental science, and engineering approaches to significantly advance research into the structure, function, and emergent properties of SETS. Extreme events like heat waves in Phoenix; coastal and urban flooding in the wake of superstorm Sandy and following hurricanes in Miami, FL; drought in Mexico; and urban flooding in Baltimore, Portland, San Juan PR, Syracuse, and Valdivia, Chile provide examples of the impacts of and vulnerability to extreme events that demand a new approach. The infrastructure of the future must be resilient, leverage ecosystem services, improve social well being, and exploit new technologies in ways that benefit all segments of urban populations and are appropriate to the particular urban contexts. These contexts are defined not only by the biophysical environment but also by culture and

  12. Extreme value prediction of the wave-induced vertical bending moment in large container ships

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ingrid Marie Vincent; Jensen, Jørgen Juncher

    2015-01-01

    increase the extreme hull girder response significantly. Focus in the present paper is on the influence of the hull girder flexibility on the extreme response amidships, namely the wave-induced vertical bending moment (VBM) in hogging, and the prediction of the extreme value of the same. The analysis...... in the present paper is based on time series of full scale measurements from three large container ships of 8600, 9400 and 14000 TEU. When carrying out the extreme value estimation the peak-over-threshold (POT) method combined with an appropriate extreme value distribution is applied. The choice of a proper...... threshold level as well as the statistical correlation between clustered peaks influence the extreme value prediction and are taken into consideration in the present paper....

  13. AGILE OBSERVATIONS OF THE GRAVITATIONAL-WAVE EVENT GW150914

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tavani, M.; Donnarumma, I.; Argan, A.; Monte, E. Del; Evangelista, Y.; Piano, G.; Munar-Adrover, P. [INAF-IAPS, via del Fosso del Cavaliere 100, I-00133 Roma (Italy); Pittori, C.; Verrecchia, F.; Lucarelli, F.; Antonelli, L. A. [ASI Science Data Center (ASDC), Via del Politecnico, I-00133 Roma (Italy); Bulgarelli, A.; Marisaldi, M.; Fioretti, V.; Zoli, A. [INAF-IASF-Bologna, Via Gobetti 101, I-40129 Bologna (Italy); Giuliani, A.; Caraveo, P. [INAF-IASF Milano, via E.Bassini 15, I-20133 Milano (Italy); Trois, A. [INAF, Osservatorio Astronomico di Cagliari, Poggio dei Pini, strada 54, I-09012 Capoterra (Italy); Barbiellini, G. [Dip. di Fisica, Universita’ di Trieste and INFN, Via Valerio 2, I-34127 Trieste (Italy); Cattaneo, P. W., E-mail: victor@roma2.infn.it.it [INFN-Pavia, Via Bassi 6, I-27100 Pavia (Italy); and others

    2016-07-01

    We report the results of an extensive search through the AGILE data for a gamma-ray counterpart to the LIGO gravitational-wave (GW) event GW150914. Currently in spinning mode, AGILE has the potential of cover 80% of the sky with its gamma-ray instrument, more than 100 times a day. It turns out that AGILE came within a minute of the event time of observing the accessible GW150914 localization region. Interestingly, the gamma-ray detector exposed ∼65% of this region during the 100 s time intervals centered at −100 and +300 s from the event time. We determine a 2 σ flux upper limit in the band 50 MeV–10 GeV, UL = 1.9 × 10{sup −8} erg cm{sup −2} s{sup −1}, obtained ∼300 s after the event. The timing of this measurement is the fastest ever obtained for GW150914, and significantly constrains the electromagnetic emission of a possible high-energy counterpart. We also carried out a search for a gamma-ray precursor and delayed emission over five timescales ranging from minutes to days: in particular, we obtained an optimal exposure during the interval −150/−30 s. In all these observations, we do not detect a significant signal associated with GW150914. We do not reveal the weak transient source reported by Fermi -GBM 0.4 s after the event time. However, even though a gamma-ray counterpart of the GW150914 event was not detected, the prospects for future AGILE observations of GW sources are decidedly promising.

  14. Discrete event simulation of Maglev transport considering traffic waves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moo Hyun Cha

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available A magnetically levitated vehicle (Maglev system is under commercialization as a new transportation system in Korea. The Maglev is operated by an unmanned automatic control system. Therefore, the plan of train operation should be carefully established and validated in advance. In general, when making a train operation plan, statistically predicted traffic data is used. However, a traffic wave often occurs in real train service, and demand-driven simulation technology is required to review a train operation plan and service quality considering traffic waves. We propose a method and model to simulate Maglev operation considering continuous demand changes. For this purpose, we employed a discrete event model that is suitable for modeling the behavior of railway passenger transportation. We modeled the system hierarchically using discrete event system specification (DEVS formalism. In addition, through implementation and an experiment using the DEVSim++ simulation environment, we tested the feasibility of the proposed model. Our experimental results also verified that our demand-driven simulation technology can be used for a priori review of train operation plans and strategies.

  15. Hydrodynamic modelling of extreme flood events in the Kashmir valley in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, Manoj; Parvaze, Sabah

    2017-04-01

    Floods are one of the most predominant, costly and deadly hazards of all natural vulnerabilities. Every year, floods exert a heavy toll on human life and property in many parts of the world. The prediction of river stages and discharge during flood extremes plays a vital role in planning structural and non-structural measures of flood management. The predictions are also valuable to prepare the flood inundation maps and river floodplain zoning. In the Kashmir Valley, floods occur mainly and very often in the Jhelum Basin mostly due to extreme precipitation events and rugged mountainous topography of the basin. These floods cause extreme damage to life and property in the valley from time to time. Excessive rainfall, particularly in higher sub-catchments causes the snow to melt resulting in excessive runoff downhill to the streams causing floods in the Kashmir Valley where Srinagar city is located. However, very few hydrological studies have been undertaken for the Jhelum Basin mainly due to non-availability of hydrological data due to very complex mountainous terrain. Therefore, the present study has been conducted to model the extreme flood events in the Jhelum Basin in Kashmir Valley. An integrated NAM and MIKE 11 HD model has been setup for Jhelum basin up to Ram Munshi Bagh gauging site and then four most extreme historical flood events in the time series has been analyzed separately including the most recent and most extreme flood event of 2014. In September 2014, the Kashmir Valley witnessed the most severe flood in the past 60 years due to catastrophic rainfall from 1st to 6th September wherein the valley received unprecedented rainfall of more than 650 mm in just 3 days breaking record of many decades. The MIKE 11 HD and NAM model has been calibrated using 21 years (1985-2005) data and validated using 9 years (2006-2014) data. The efficiency indices of the model for calibration and validation period is 0.749 and 0.792 respectively. The model simulated

  16. Extreme Wave-Induced Oscillation in Paradip Port Under the Resonance Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Prashant; Gulshan

    2017-12-01

    A mathematical model is constructed to analyze the long wave-induced oscillation in Paradip Port, Odisha, India under the resonance conditions to avert any extreme wave hazards. Boundary element method (BEM) with corner contribution is utilized to solve the Helmholtz equation under the partial reflection boundary conditions. Furthermore, convergence analysis is also performed for the boundary element scheme with uniform and non-uniform discretization of the boundary. The numerical scheme is also validated with analytic approximation and existing studies based on harbor resonance. Then, the amplification factor is estimated at six key record stations in the Paradip Port with multidirectional incident waves and resonance modes are also estimated at the boundary of the port. Ocean surface wave field is predicted in the interior of Paradip Port for the different directional incident wave at various resonance modes. Moreover, the safe locations in the port have been identified for loading and unloading of moored ship with different resonance modes and directional incident waves.

  17. Extreme water level and wave estimation for nearshore of Ningde City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Y. D.; Wang, E. K.; Xu, G. Q.

    2017-08-01

    The high and low design water levels are calculated by observation tidal data in sea areas of Ningde offshore wind power project from September 2010 to August 2011, with the value 318 cm and -246 cm, respectively. The extreme high and low levels are also calculated using synchronous difference ratio method based on station data from 1973 to 2005 at Sansha station. The value is 431 cm and -378 cm respectively. The design wave elements are estimated using the wave data from Beishuang Station and Pingtan station. On this basis, the SWAN wave model is applied to calculating the design wave elements in the engineering sea areas. The results show that the southern sea area is mainly affected by the wave effect on ESE, and the northern is mainly affected by the E waves. This paper is helpful and useful for design and construction of offshore and coastal engineering.

  18. Observation of gravity waves during the extreme tornado outbreak of 3 April 1974

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, R. J.; Phan, T.; Smith, R. E.

    1978-01-01

    A continuous wave-spectrum high-frequency radiowave Doppler sounder array was used to observe upper-atmospheric disturbances during an extreme tornado outbreak. The observations indicated that gravity waves with two harmonic wave periods were detected at the F-region ionospheric height. Using a group ray path computational technique, the observed gravity waves were traced in order to locate potential sources. The signals were apparently excited 1-3 hours before tornado touchdown. Reverse ray tracing indicated that the wave source was located at the aurora zone with a Kp index of 6 at the time of wave excitation. The summation of the 24-hour Kp index for the day was 36. The results agree with existing theories (Testud, 1970; Titheridge, 1971; Kato, 1976) for the excitation of large-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances associated with geomagnetic activity in the aurora zone.

  19. Ensemble reconstruction of spatio-temporal extreme low-flow events in France since 1871

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caillouet, Laurie; Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Sauquet, Eric; Devers, Alexandre; Graff, Benjamin

    2017-06-01

    The length of streamflow observations is generally limited to the last 50 years even in data-rich countries like France. It therefore offers too small a sample of extreme low-flow events to properly explore the long-term evolution of their characteristics and associated impacts. To overcome this limit, this work first presents a daily 140-year ensemble reconstructed streamflow dataset for a reference network of near-natural catchments in France. This dataset, called SCOPE Hydro (Spatially COherent Probabilistic Extended Hydrological dataset), is based on (1) a probabilistic precipitation, temperature, and reference evapotranspiration downscaling of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis over France, called SCOPE Climate, and (2) continuous hydrological modelling using SCOPE Climate as forcings over the whole period. This work then introduces tools for defining spatio-temporal extreme low-flow events. Extreme low-flow events are first locally defined through the sequent peak algorithm using a novel combination of a fixed threshold and a daily variable threshold. A dedicated spatial matching procedure is then established to identify spatio-temporal events across France. This procedure is furthermore adapted to the SCOPE Hydro 25-member ensemble to characterize in a probabilistic way unrecorded historical events at the national scale. Extreme low-flow events are described and compared in a spatially and temporally homogeneous way over 140 years on a large set of catchments. Results highlight well-known recent events like 1976 or 1989-1990, but also older and relatively forgotten ones like the 1878 and 1893 events. These results contribute to improving our knowledge of historical events and provide a selection of benchmark events for climate change adaptation purposes. Moreover, this study allows for further detailed analyses of the effect of climate variability and anthropogenic climate change on low-flow hydrology at the scale of France.

  20. Projected Changes in Persistent Extreme Warm-Season Weather Events: The Role of Quasi-Resonant Amplification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, M. E.; Rahmstorf, S.; Kornhuber, K.; Steinman, B. A.; Miller, S. K.; Coumou, D.

    2017-12-01

    Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer are typically associated with high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves with zonal wavenumbers. Such disturbances are favoured by the phenomenon of Quasi-Resonant Amplification (QRA). A fingerprint for the occurrence of QRA can be defined in terms of the zonally-averaged surface temperature field. Examining future state-of-the-art (CMIP5) climate model projections we find that such events are likely to increase by 50% over the next century under business-as-usual carbon emissions, but there is considerable variation among climate models, with some models predicting a near tripling of QRA events by the end of the century. These results are strongly dependent on assumptions regarding the prominence of changes in radiative forcing associated with anthropogenic aerosols over the next century.

  1. Unveiling non-stationary coupling between Amazon and ocean during recent extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, Antônio M. de T.; Zou, Yong; de Oliveira, Gilvan Sampaio; Kurths, Jürgen; Macau, Elbert E. N.

    2018-02-01

    The interplay between extreme events in the Amazon's precipitation and the anomaly in the temperature of the surrounding oceans is not fully understood, especially its causal relations. In this paper, we investigate the climatic interaction between these regions from 1999 until 2012 using modern tools of complex system science. We identify the time scale of the coupling quantitatively and unveil the non-stationary influence of the ocean's temperature. The findings show consistently the distinctions between the coupling in the recent major extreme events in Amazonia, such as the two droughts that happened in 2005 and 2010 and the three floods during 1999, 2009 and 2012. Interestingly, the results also reveal the influence over the anomalous precipitation of Southwest Amazon has become increasingly lagged. The analysis can shed light on the underlying dynamics of the climate network system and consequently can improve predictions of extreme rainfall events.

  2. Extreme climatic events in relation to global change and their impact on life histories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan MORENO, Anders Pape Møller

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Extreme weather conditions occur at an increasing rate as evidenced by higher frequency of hurricanes and more extreme precipitation and temperature anomalies. Such extreme environmental conditions will have important implications for all living organisms through greater frequency of reproductive failure and reduced adult survival. We review examples of reproductive failure and reduced survival related to extreme weather conditions. Phenotypic plasticity may not be sufficient to allow adaptation to extreme weather for many animals. Theory predicts reduced reproductive effort as a response to increased stochasticity. We predict that patterns of natural selection will change towards truncation selection as environmental conditions become more extreme. Such changes in patterns of selection may facilitate adaptation to extreme events. However, effects of selection on reproductive effort are difficult to detect. We present a number of predictions for the effects of extreme weather conditions in need of empirical tests. Finally, we suggest a number of empirical reviews that could improve our ability to judge the effects of extreme environmental conditions on life history [Current Zoology 57 (3: 375–389, 2011].

  3. Extreme events in the Mediterranean area: A mixed deterministic-statistical approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Speranza, A.; Tartaglione, N.

    2006-01-01

    Statistical inference suffers for severe limitations when applied to extreme meteo-climatic events. A fundamental theorem proposes a constructive theory for a universal distribution law (the Generalized Extreme Value distribution) of extremes. Use of this theorem and of its derivations is nowadays quite common. However, when applying it, the selected events should be real extremes. In practical applications a major source of errors is the fact that there is no strict criterion for selecting extremes and, in order to fatten the statistical sample very mild selection criteria are often used. The theorem in question applies to stationary processes. When a trend is introduced, inference becomes even more problematic. Experience shows that any available a priori knowledge concerning the system can play a fundamental role in the analysis, in particular if it lowers the dimensionality of the parameter space to be explored. The inference procedures serve, then, the purpose of testing the reliability of inductive hypothesis, rather than proving them. Within the above general context, analysis of the hypothesis that the frequency and/or intensity of extreme weather events in the Mediterranean area may be changing is proposed. The analysis is based on a combined deterministic-statistical approach: dynamical analysis of intense perturbations is combined with statistical techniques in order to try to formulate the problem in such a way that meaningful conclusion may be achieved

  4. Extreme Events in China under Climate Change: Uncertainty and related impacts (CSSP-FOREX)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leckebusch, Gregor C.; Befort, Daniel J.; Hodges, Kevin I.

    2016-04-01

    Suitable adaptation strategies or the timely initiation of related mitigation efforts in East Asia will strongly depend on robust and comprehensive information about future near-term as well as long-term potential changes in the climate system. Therefore, understanding the driving mechanisms associated with the East Asian climate is of major importance. The FOREX project (Fostering Regional Decision Making by the Assessment of Uncertainties of Future Regional Extremes and their Linkage to Global Climate System Variability for China and East Asia) focuses on the investigation of extreme wind and rainfall related events over Eastern Asia and their possible future changes. Here, analyses focus on the link between local extreme events and their driving weather systems. This includes the coupling between local rainfall extremes and tropical cyclones, the Meiyu frontal system, extra-tropical teleconnections and monsoonal activity. Furthermore, the relation between these driving weather systems and large-scale variability modes, e.g. NAO, PDO, ENSO is analysed. Thus, beside analysing future changes of local extreme events, the temporal variability of their driving weather systems and related large-scale variability modes will be assessed in current CMIP5 global model simulations to obtain more robust results. Beyond an overview of FOREX itself, first results regarding the link between local extremes and their steering weather systems based on observational and reanalysis data are shown. Special focus is laid on the contribution of monsoonal activity, tropical cyclones and the Meiyu frontal system on the inter-annual variability of the East Asian summer rainfall.

  5. Changes to extreme wave climates of islands within the Western Tropical Pacific throughout the 21st century under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, with implications for island vulnerability and sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shope, James B.; Storlazzi, Curt; Erikson, Li; Hegermiller, Christie

    2016-01-01

    Waves are the dominant influence on coastal morphology and ecosystem structure of tropical Pacific islands. Wave heights, periods, and directions for the 21st century were projected using near-surface wind fields from four atmosphere-ocean coupled global climate models (GCM) under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. GCM-derived wind fields forced the global WAVEWATCH-III wave model to generate hourly time-series of bulk wave parameters around 25 islands in the mid to western tropical Pacific Ocean for historical (1976–2005), mid-, and end-of-century time periods. Extreme significant wave heights decreased (~10.0%) throughout the 21st century under both climate scenarios compared to historical wave conditions and the higher radiative forcing 8.5 scenario displayed a greater and more widespread decrease in extreme significant wave heights compared to the lower forcing 4.5 scenario. An exception was for the end-of-century June–August season. Offshore of islands in the central equatorial Pacific, extreme significant wave heights displayed the largest changes from historical values. The frequency of extreme events during December–February decreased under RCP 8.5, whereas the frequency increased under RCP 4.5. Mean wave directions often rotated more than 30° clockwise at several locations during June–August, which could indicate a weakening of the trade winds’ influence on extreme wave directions and increasing dominance of Southern Ocean swell or eastern shift of storm tracks. The projected changes in extreme wave heights, directions of extreme events, and frequencies at which extreme events occur will likely result in changes to the morphology and sustainability of island nations.

  6. SPECTROSCOPIC OBSERVATIONS OF CONTINUOUS OUTFLOWS AND PROPAGATING WAVES FROM NOAA 10942 WITH EXTREME ULTRAVIOLET IMAGING SPECTROMETER/HINODE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nishizuka, N.; Hara, H.

    2011-01-01

    We focused on 'sit-and-stare' observations of an outflow region at the edge of active region NOAA 10942 on 2007 February 20 obtained by the Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Spectrometer on board Hinode. We analyzed the data above the base of the outflow and found both continuous outflows and waves, which propagate from the base of the outflow. The spectra at the base of the outflow and at higher locations show different properties. The line profiles show blue-side asymmetry at the base of the outflow where nonthermal broadening becomes large because of fast upflows generated by heating events. On the other hand, at higher locations line profiles are symmetric and the intensity disturbances vary in phase with the velocity disturbances. The correlations between the intensity and velocity disturbances become noticeable at higher locations, so this indicates evidence of (at least locally) upward propagating slow-mode waves along the outflow. We also found a transient oscillation of different period in the wavelet spectrum. This indicates that a different wave is additionally observed during a limited period. High cadence spectroscopic observations revealed intermittent signatures of nonthermal velocities. Each of them seems to correspond to the base of the propagating disturbances. Furthermore, a jet was captured by the sit-and-stare observations across the slit. The similarity of line profiles of the outflow and the jet may indicate that the flows and waves originate in unresolved explosive events in the lower atmosphere of the corona.

  7. Climate network analysis of regional precipitation extremes: The true story told by event synchronization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odenweller, Adrian; Donner, Reik V.

    2017-04-01

    Over the last decade, complex network methods have been frequently used for characterizing spatio-temporal patterns of climate variability from a complex systems perspective, yielding new insights into time-dependent teleconnectivity patterns and couplings between different components of the Earth climate. Among the foremost results reported, network analyses of the synchronicity of extreme events as captured by the so-called event synchronization have been proposed to be powerful tools for disentangling the spatio-temporal organization of particularly extreme rainfall events and anticipating the timing of monsoon onsets or extreme floodings. Rooted in the analysis of spike train synchrony analysis in the neurosciences, event synchronization has the great advantage of automatically classifying pairs of events arising at two distinct spatial locations as temporally close (and, thus, possibly statistically - or even dynamically - interrelated) or not without the necessity of selecting an additional parameter in terms of a maximally tolerable delay between these events. This consideration is conceptually justified in case of the original application to spike trains in electroencephalogram (EEG) recordings, where the inter-spike intervals show relatively narrow distributions at high temporal sampling rates. However, in case of climate studies, precipitation extremes defined by daily precipitation sums exceeding a certain empirical percentile of their local distribution exhibit a distinctively different type of distribution of waiting times between subsequent events. This raises conceptual concerns if event synchronization is still appropriate for detecting interlinkages between spatially distributed precipitation extremes. In order to study this problem in more detail, we employ event synchronization together with an alternative similarity measure for event sequences, event coincidence rates, which requires a manual setting of the tolerable maximum delay between two

  8. Semi-supervised tracking of extreme weather events in global spatio-temporal climate datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, S. K.; Prabhat, M.; Williams, D. N.

    2017-12-01

    Deep neural networks have been successfully applied to solve problem to detect extreme weather events in large scale climate datasets and attend superior performance that overshadows all previous hand-crafted methods. Recent work has shown that multichannel spatiotemporal encoder-decoder CNN architecture is able to localize events in semi-supervised bounding box. Motivated by this work, we propose new learning metric based on Variational Auto-Encoders (VAE) and Long-Short-Term-Memory (LSTM) to track extreme weather events in spatio-temporal dataset. We consider spatio-temporal object tracking problems as learning probabilistic distribution of continuous latent features of auto-encoder using stochastic variational inference. For this, we assume that our datasets are i.i.d and latent features is able to be modeled by Gaussian distribution. In proposed metric, we first train VAE to generate approximate posterior given multichannel climate input with an extreme climate event at fixed time. Then, we predict bounding box, location and class of extreme climate events using convolutional layers given input concatenating three features including embedding, sampled mean and standard deviation. Lastly, we train LSTM with concatenated input to learn timely information of dataset by recurrently feeding output back to next time-step's input of VAE. Our contribution is two-fold. First, we show the first semi-supervised end-to-end architecture based on VAE to track extreme weather events which can apply to massive scaled unlabeled climate datasets. Second, the information of timely movement of events is considered for bounding box prediction using LSTM which can improve accuracy of localization. To our knowledge, this technique has not been explored neither in climate community or in Machine Learning community.

  9. Towards a unified study of extreme events using universality concepts and transdisciplinary analysis methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balasis, George; Donner, Reik V.; Donges, Jonathan F.; Radebach, Alexander; Eftaxias, Konstantinos; Kurths, Jürgen

    2013-04-01

    The dynamics of many complex systems is characterized by the same universal principles. In particular, systems which are otherwise quite different in nature show striking similarities in their behavior near tipping points (bifurcations, phase transitions, sudden regime shifts) and associated extreme events. Such critical phenomena are frequently found in diverse fields such as climate, seismology, or financial markets. Notably, the observed similarities include a high degree of organization, persistent behavior, and accelerated energy release, which are common to (among others) phenomena related to geomagnetic variability of the terrestrial magnetosphere (intense magnetic storms), seismic activity (electromagnetic emissions prior to earthquakes), solar-terrestrial physics (solar flares), neurophysiology (epileptic seizures), and socioeconomic systems (stock market crashes). It is an open question whether the spatial and temporal complexity associated with extreme events arises from the system's structural organization (geometry) or from the chaotic behavior inherent to the nonlinear equations governing the dynamics of these phenomena. On the one hand, the presence of scaling laws associated with earthquakes and geomagnetic disturbances suggests understanding these events as generalized phase transitions similar to nucleation and critical phenomena in thermal and magnetic systems. On the other hand, because of the structural organization of the systems (e.g., as complex networks) the associated spatial geometry and/or topology of interactions plays a fundamental role in the emergence of extreme events. Here, a few aspects of the interplay between geometry and dynamics (critical phase transitions) that could result in the emergence of extreme events, which is an open problem, will be discussed.

  10. Vulnerability and resilience of the carbon exchange o a subarctic peatland to an extreme winter event

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Parmentier, Frans-Jan W.; Rasse, Daniel P.; Lund, Magnus

    2018-01-01

    impact of this event. Our results indicate that gross primary production (GPP) exhibited a delayed response to temperature following snowmelt. From snowmelt up to the peak of summer, this reduced carbon uptake by 14 (0-24) g Cm-2 (similar to 12% of GPP in that period)-similar to the effect of interannual......Extreme winter events that damage vegetation are considered an important climatic cause of arctic browning-a reversal of the greening trend of the region-and possibly reduce the carbon uptake of northern ecosystems. Confirmation of a reduction in CO2 uptake due to winter damage, however, remains...... event. The warm summer also increased ecosystem respiration, which limited net carbon uptake. This study shows that damage from a single extreme winter event can have an ecosystem-wide impact on CO2 uptake, and highlights the importance of including winter-induced shrub damage in terrestrial ecosystem...

  11. Experimental characterization of extreme events of inertial dissipation in a turbulent swirling flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saw, E. -W.; Kuzzay, D.; Faranda, D.; Guittonneau, A.; Daviaud, F.; Wiertel-Gasquet, C.; Padilla, V.; Dubrulle, B.

    2016-01-01

    The three-dimensional incompressible Navier–Stokes equations, which describe the motion of many fluids, are the cornerstones of many physical and engineering sciences. However, it is still unclear whether they are mathematically well posed, that is, whether their solutions remain regular over time or develop singularities. Even though it was shown that singularities, if exist, could only be rare events, they may induce additional energy dissipation by inertial means. Here, using measurements at the dissipative scale of an axisymmetric turbulent flow, we report estimates of such inertial energy dissipation and identify local events of extreme values. We characterize the topology of these extreme events and identify several main types. Most of them appear as fronts separating regions of distinct velocities, whereas events corresponding to focusing spirals, jets and cusps are also found. Our results highlight the non-triviality of turbulent flows at sub-Kolmogorov scales as possible footprints of singularities of the Navier–Stokes equation. PMID:27578459

  12. The investigation of form and processes in the coastal zone under extreme storm events - the case study of Rethymno, Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afentoulis, Vasileios; Mohammadi, Bijan; Tsoukala, Vasiliki

    2017-04-01

    Coastal zone is a significant geographical and particular region, since it gathers a wide range of social-human's activities and appears to be a complex as well as fragile system of natural variables. Coastal communities are increasingly at risk from serious coastal hazards, such as shoreline erosion and flooding related to extreme hydro-meteorological events: storm surges, heavy precipitation, tsunamis and tides. In order to investigate the impact of these extreme events on the coastal zone, it is necessary to describe the driving mechanisms which contribute to its destabilization and more precisely the interaction between the wave forces and the transport of sediment. The aim of the present study is to examine the capability of coastal zone processes simulation under extreme wave events, using numerical models, in the coastal area of Rethymno, Greece. Rethymno city is one of the eleven case study areas of PEARL (Preparing for Extreme And Rare events in coastal regions) project, an EU funded research project, which aims at developing adaptive risk management strategies for coastal communities focusing on extreme hydro-meteorological events, with a multidisciplinary approach integrating social, environmental and technical research and innovation so as to increase the resilience of coastal regions all over the world. Within this framework, three different numerical models have been used: the MIKE 21 - DHI, the XBeach model and a numerical formulation for sea bed evolution, developed by Afaf Bouharguane and Bijan Mohammadi (2013). For the determination of the wave and hydrodynamic conditions, as well as the assessment of the sediment transport components, the MIKE 21 SW and the MIKE 21 FM modules have been applied and the bathymetry of Rethymno is arranged into a 2D unstructured mesh. This method of digitalization was selected because of its ability to easily represent the complex geometry of the coastal zone. It allows smaller scale wave characteristics to be

  13. Simulation of the catastrophic floods caused by extreme rainfall events - Uh River basin case study

    OpenAIRE

    Pekárová, Pavla; Halmová, Dana; Mitková, Veronika

    2005-01-01

    The extreme rainfall events in Central and East Europe on August 2002 rise the question, how other basins would respond on such rainfall situations. Such theorisation helps us to arrange in advance the necessary activity in the basin to reduce the consequence of the assumed disaster. The aim of the study is to recognise a reaction of the Uh River basin (Slovakia, Ukraine) to the simulated catastrophic rainfall events from August 2002. Two precipitation scenarios, sc1 and sc2, were created. Th...

  14. Extrapolation of extreme response for different mooring line systems of floating wave energy converters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ambühl, Simon; Sterndorff, Martin; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2014-01-01

    Mooring systems for floating wave energy converters (WECs) are a major cost driver. Failure of mooring systems often occurs due to extreme loads. This paper introduces an extrapolation method for extreme response which accounts for the control system of a WEC that controls the loads onto...... measurements from lab-scaled WEPTOS WEC are taken. Different catenary anchor leg mooring (CALM) systems as well as single anchor legmooring (SALM)mooring systemsare implemented for a dynamic simulation with different number of mooring lines. Extreme tension loads with a return period of 50 years are assessed...... for the hawser as well as at the different mooring lines. Furthermore, the extreme load impact given failure of one mooring line is assessed and compared with extreme loads given no system failure....

  15. Extreme temperature events on Greenland in observations and the MAR regional climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leeson, Amber A.; Eastoe, Emma; Fettweis, Xavier

    2018-03-01

    Meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet contributed 1.7-6.12 mm to global sea level between 1993 and 2010 and is expected to contribute 20-110 mm to future sea level rise by 2100. These estimates were produced by regional climate models (RCMs) which are known to be robust at the ice sheet scale but occasionally miss regional- and local-scale climate variability (e.g. Leeson et al., 2017; Medley et al., 2013). To date, the fidelity of these models in the context of short-period variability in time (i.e. intra-seasonal) has not been fully assessed, for example their ability to simulate extreme temperature events. We use an event identification algorithm commonly used in extreme value analysis, together with observations from the Greenland Climate Network (GC-Net), to assess the ability of the MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) RCM to reproduce observed extreme positive-temperature events at 14 sites around Greenland. We find that MAR is able to accurately simulate the frequency and duration of these events but underestimates their magnitude by more than half a degree Celsius/kelvin, although this bias is much smaller than that exhibited by coarse-scale Era-Interim reanalysis data. As a result, melt energy in MAR output is underestimated by between 16 and 41 % depending on global forcing applied. Further work is needed to precisely determine the drivers of extreme temperature events, and why the model underperforms in this area, but our findings suggest that biases are passed into MAR from boundary forcing data. This is important because these forcings are common between RCMs and their range of predictions of past and future ice sheet melting. We propose that examining extreme events should become a routine part of global and regional climate model evaluation and that addressing shortcomings in this area should be a priority for model development.

  16. Data-assisted reduced-order modeling of extreme events in complex dynamical systems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhong Yi Wan

    Full Text Available The prediction of extreme events, from avalanches and droughts to tsunamis and epidemics, depends on the formulation and analysis of relevant, complex dynamical systems. Such dynamical systems are characterized by high intrinsic dimensionality with extreme events having the form of rare transitions that are several standard deviations away from the mean. Such systems are not amenable to classical order-reduction methods through projection of the governing equations due to the large intrinsic dimensionality of the underlying attractor as well as the complexity of the transient events. Alternatively, data-driven techniques aim to quantify the dynamics of specific, critical modes by utilizing data-streams and by expanding the dimensionality of the reduced-order model using delayed coordinates. In turn, these methods have major limitations in regions of the phase space with sparse data, which is the case for extreme events. In this work, we develop a novel hybrid framework that complements an imperfect reduced order model, with data-streams that are integrated though a recurrent neural network (RNN architecture. The reduced order model has the form of projected equations into a low-dimensional subspace that still contains important dynamical information about the system and it is expanded by a long short-term memory (LSTM regularization. The LSTM-RNN is trained by analyzing the mismatch between the imperfect model and the data-streams, projected to the reduced-order space. The data-driven model assists the imperfect model in regions where data is available, while for locations where data is sparse the imperfect model still provides a baseline for the prediction of the system state. We assess the developed framework on two challenging prototype systems exhibiting extreme events. We show that the blended approach has improved performance compared with methods that use either data streams or the imperfect model alone. Notably the improvement is more

  17. Data-assisted reduced-order modeling of extreme events in complex dynamical systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Zhong Yi; Vlachas, Pantelis; Koumoutsakos, Petros; Sapsis, Themistoklis

    2018-01-01

    The prediction of extreme events, from avalanches and droughts to tsunamis and epidemics, depends on the formulation and analysis of relevant, complex dynamical systems. Such dynamical systems are characterized by high intrinsic dimensionality with extreme events having the form of rare transitions that are several standard deviations away from the mean. Such systems are not amenable to classical order-reduction methods through projection of the governing equations due to the large intrinsic dimensionality of the underlying attractor as well as the complexity of the transient events. Alternatively, data-driven techniques aim to quantify the dynamics of specific, critical modes by utilizing data-streams and by expanding the dimensionality of the reduced-order model using delayed coordinates. In turn, these methods have major limitations in regions of the phase space with sparse data, which is the case for extreme events. In this work, we develop a novel hybrid framework that complements an imperfect reduced order model, with data-streams that are integrated though a recurrent neural network (RNN) architecture. The reduced order model has the form of projected equations into a low-dimensional subspace that still contains important dynamical information about the system and it is expanded by a long short-term memory (LSTM) regularization. The LSTM-RNN is trained by analyzing the mismatch between the imperfect model and the data-streams, projected to the reduced-order space. The data-driven model assists the imperfect model in regions where data is available, while for locations where data is sparse the imperfect model still provides a baseline for the prediction of the system state. We assess the developed framework on two challenging prototype systems exhibiting extreme events. We show that the blended approach has improved performance compared with methods that use either data streams or the imperfect model alone. Notably the improvement is more significant in

  18. Local instability driving extreme events in a pair of coupled chaotic electronic circuits

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Oliveira, Gilson F.; Di Lorenzo, Orlando; de Silans, Thierry Passerat; Chevrollier, Martine; Oriá, Marcos; Cavalcante, Hugo L. D. de Souza

    2016-06-01

    For a long time, extreme events happening in complex systems, such as financial markets, earthquakes, and neurological networks, were thought to follow power-law size distributions. More recently, evidence suggests that in many systems the largest and rarest events differ from the other ones. They are dragon kings, outliers that make the distribution deviate from a power law in the tail. Understanding the processes of formation of extreme events and what circumstances lead to dragon kings or to a power-law distribution is an open question and it is a very important one to assess whether extreme events will occur too often in a specific system. In the particular system studied in this paper, we show that the rate of occurrence of dragon kings is controlled by the value of a parameter. The system under study here is composed of two nearly identical chaotic oscillators which fail to remain in a permanently synchronized state when coupled. We analyze the statistics of the desynchronization events in this specific example of two coupled chaotic electronic circuits and find that modifying a parameter associated to the local instability responsible for the loss of synchronization reduces the occurrence of dragon kings, while preserving the power-law distribution of small- to intermediate-size events with the same scaling exponent. Our results support the hypothesis that the dragon kings are caused by local instabilities in the phase space.

  19. Erosion during extreme flood events dominates Holocene canyon evolution in northeast Iceland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baynes, Edwin R C; Attal, Mikaël; Niedermann, Samuel; Kirstein, Linda A; Dugmore, Andrew J; Naylor, Mark

    2015-02-24

    Extreme flood events have the potential to cause catastrophic landscape change in short periods of time (10(0) to 10(3) h). However, their impacts are rarely considered in studies of long-term landscape evolution (>10(3) y), because the mechanisms of erosion during such floods are poorly constrained. Here we use topographic analysis and cosmogenic (3)He surface exposure dating of fluvially sculpted surfaces to determine the impact of extreme flood events within the Jökulsárgljúfur canyon (northeast Iceland) and to constrain the mechanisms of bedrock erosion during these events. Surface exposure ages allow identification of three periods of intense canyon cutting about 9 ka ago, 5 ka ago, and 2 ka ago during which multiple large knickpoints retreated large distances (>2 km). During these events, a threshold flow depth was exceeded, leading to the toppling and transportation of basalt lava columns. Despite continuing and comparatively large-scale (500 m(3)/s) discharge of sediment-rich glacial meltwater, there is no evidence for a transition to an abrasion-dominated erosion regime since the last erosive event because the vertical knickpoints have not diffused over time. We provide a model for the evolution of the Jökulsárgljúfur canyon through the reconstruction of the river profile and canyon morphology at different stages over the last 9 ka and highlight the dominant role played by extreme flood events in the shaping of this landscape during the Holocene.

  20. Proactive modeling of water quality impacts of extreme precipitation events in a drinking water reservoir.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeznach, Lillian C; Hagemann, Mark; Park, Mi-Hyun; Tobiason, John E

    2017-10-01

    Extreme precipitation events are of concern to managers of drinking water sources because these occurrences can affect both water supply quantity and quality. However, little is known about how these low probability events impact organic matter and nutrient loads to surface water sources and how these loads may impact raw water quality. This study describes a method for evaluating the sensitivity of a water body of interest from watershed input simulations under extreme precipitation events. An example application of the method is illustrated using the Wachusett Reservoir, an oligo-mesotrophic surface water reservoir in central Massachusetts and a major drinking water supply to metropolitan Boston. Extreme precipitation event simulations during the spring and summer resulted in total organic carbon, UV-254 (a surrogate measurement for reactive organic matter), and total algae concentrations at the drinking water intake that exceeded recorded maximums. Nutrient concentrations after storm events were less likely to exceed recorded historical maximums. For this particular reservoir, increasing inter-reservoir transfers of water with lower organic matter content after a large precipitation event has been shown in practice and in model simulations to decrease organic matter levels at the drinking water intake, therefore decreasing treatment associated oxidant demand, energy for UV disinfection, and the potential for formation of disinfection byproducts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Acclimation responses to temperature vary with vertical stratification: implications for vulnerability of soil-dwelling species to extreme temperature events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Dooremalen, Coby; Berg, Matty P; Ellers, Jacintha

    2013-03-01

    The occurrence of summer heat waves is predicted to increase in amplitude and frequency in the near future, but the consequences of such extreme events are largely unknown, especially for belowground organisms. Soil organisms usually exhibit strong vertical stratification, resulting in more frequent exposure to extreme temperatures for surface-dwelling species than for soil-dwelling species. Therefore soil-dwelling species are expected to have poor acclimation responses to cope with temperature changes. We used five species of surface-dwelling and four species of soil-dwelling Collembola that habituate different depths in the soil. We tested for differences in tolerance to extreme temperatures after acclimation to warm and cold conditions. We also tested for differences in acclimation of the underlying physiology by looking at changes in membrane lipid composition. Chill coma recovery time, heat knockdown time and fatty acid profiles were determined after 1 week of acclimation to either 5 or 20 °C. Our results showed that surface-dwelling Collembola better maintained increased heat tolerance across acclimation temperatures, but no such response was found for cold tolerance. Concordantly, four of the five surface-dwelling Collembola showed up to fourfold changes in relative abundance of fatty acids after 1 week of acclimation, whereas none of the soil-dwelling species showed a significant adjustment in fatty acid composition. Strong physiological responses to temperature fluctuations may have become redundant in soil-dwelling species due to the relative thermal stability of their subterranean habitat. Based on the results of the four species studied, we expect that unless soil-dwelling species can temporarily retreat to avoid extreme temperatures, the predicted increase in heat waves under climatic change renders these soil-dwelling species more vulnerable to extinction than species with better physiological capabilities. Being able to act under a larger thermal

  2. Seasonal and Non-Seasonal Generalized Pareto Distribution to Estimate Extreme Significant Wave Height in The Banda Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nursamsiah; Nugroho Sugianto, Denny; Suprijanto, Jusup; Munasik; Yulianto, Bambang

    2018-02-01

    The information of extreme wave height return level was required for maritime planning and management. The recommendation methods in analyzing extreme wave were better distributed by Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). Seasonal variation was often considered in the extreme wave model. This research aims to identify the best model of GPD by considering a seasonal variation of the extreme wave. By using percentile 95 % as the threshold of extreme significant wave height, the seasonal GPD and non-seasonal GPD fitted. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was applied to identify the goodness of fit of the GPD model. The return value from seasonal and non-seasonal GPD was compared with the definition of return value as criteria. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test result shows that GPD fits data very well both seasonal and non-seasonal model. The seasonal return value gives better information about the wave height characteristics.

  3. Cyclones and extreme windstorm events over Europe under climate change: Global and regional climate model diagnostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leckebusch, G. C.; Ulbrich, U.

    2003-04-01

    More than any changes of the climate system mean state conditions, the development of extreme events may influence social, economic and legal aspects of our society. This linkage results from the impact of extreme climate events (natural hazards) on environmental systems which again are directly linked to human activities. Prominent examples from the recent past are the record breaking rainfall amounts of August 2002 in central Europe which produced widespread floodings or the wind storm Lothar of December 1999. Within the MICE (Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes) project framework an assessment of the impact of changes in extremes will be done. The investigation is carried out for several different impact categories as agriculture, energy use and property damage. Focus is laid on the diagnostics of GCM and RCM simulations under different climate change scenarios. In this study we concentrate on extreme windstorms and their relationship to cyclone activity in the global HADCM3 as well as in the regional HADRM3 model under two climate change scenarios (SRESA2a, B2a). In order to identify cyclones we used an objective algorithm from Murry and Simmonds which was widely tested under several different conditions. A slight increase in the occurrence of systems is identified above northern parts of central Europe for both scenarios. For more severe systems (core pressure Spain) a shift to more deep cyclones connected with an increasing number of strong wind events is found.

  4. Observed changes in seasonal heat waves and warm temperature extremes in the Romanian Carpathians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Micu, Dana; Birsan, Marius-Victor; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Cheval, Sorin

    2015-04-01

    Extreme high temperature have a large impact on environment and human activities, especially in high elevation areas particularly sensitive to the recent climate warming. The climate of the Romanian Carpathians became warmer particularly in winter, spring and summer, exibiting a significant increasing frequency of warm extremes. The paper investigates the seasonal changes in the frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves in relation to the shifts in the daily distribution of maximum temperatures over a 50-year period of meteorological observations (1961-2010). The paper uses the heat wave definition recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) and exploits the gridded daily dataset of maximum temperature at 0.1° resolution (~10 km) developed in the framework of the CarpatClim project (www.carpatclim.eu). The seasonal changes in heat waves behavior were identified using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric trend test. The results suggest an increase in heat wave frequency and a lengthening of intervals affected by warm temperature extremes all over the study region, which are explained by the shifts in the upper (extreme) tail of the daily maximum temperature distribution in most seasons. The trends are consistent across the region and are well correlated to the positive phases of the East Atlantic Oscillation. Our results are in good agreement with the previous temperature-related studies concerning the Carpathian region. This study was realized within the framework of the project GENCLIM, financed by UEFISCDI, code PN-II 151/2014.

  5. Long-term variability of extreme waves in the Caspian, Black, Azov and Baltic Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arkhipkin, Victor; Dobroliubov, Sergey

    2013-04-01

    In order to study extreme storm waves in the Caspian, Black, Azov and Baltic Sea we used the spectral wave model SWAN. Significant wave height, swell and sea height, direction of propagation, their length and period were calculated with the NCEP/NCAR (1,9°x1,9°, 4-daily) reanalysis wind forcing from 1948 to 2010 in the Caspian, Black and Baltic Seas and with the NCEP/CFSR (0,3°x0,3°, 1 hour) for the period from 1979 to 2010 in the Azov Sea. The calculations were performed on supercomputers of Lomonosov Moscow State University (MSU). The spatial resolution of the numerical grid was of order 5 km for the Caspian, Baltic and Black Seas, 2 km for the Azov Sea. These model wave hindcasts were used to calculate interannual and seasonal variability of the storm frequency, location and duration. The Initial Distribution Method and Annual Maxima Series Methods were used to study probable waves of a century reoccurrence. The long-term variability of extreme waves revealed different trends in the investigated seas. The Caspian and Azov seas decreased the storm activity, while in the Baltic Sea the number of storm cases increased and the Black Sea showed no significant trend. The of more than 12 m were observed in two centers in the middle part of the Caspian Sea and in the center of the Baltic Sea. In the Black Sea the extreme waves of the same probability of more than 14 m were found in the region to the south of the Crimean peninsula. In the Azov Sea the highest waves of a century reoccurrence do not exceed 5 m. The work was done in Natural Risk Assessment Laboratory, MSU under contract G.34.31.0007.

  6. Analysis of experimental data: The average shape of extreme wave forces on monopile foundations and the NewForce model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schløer, Signe; Bredmose, Henrik; Ghadirian, Amin

    2017-01-01

    Experiments with a stiff pile subjected to extreme wave forces typical of offshore wind farm storm conditions are considered. The exceedance probability curves of the nondimensional force peaks and crest heights are analysed. The average force time history normalised with their peak values are co...... to the average shapes. For more nonlinear wave shapes, higher order terms has to be considered in order for the NewForce model to be able to predict the expected shapes.......Experiments with a stiff pile subjected to extreme wave forces typical of offshore wind farm storm conditions are considered. The exceedance probability curves of the nondimensional force peaks and crest heights are analysed. The average force time history normalised with their peak values...... are compared across the sea states. It is found that the force shapes show a clear similarity when grouped after the values of the normalised peak force, F/(ρghR2), normalised depth h/(gT2p) and presented in a normalised time scale t/Ta. For the largest force events, slamming can be seen as a distinct ‘hat...

  7. Changes in Climate Extremes and Catastrophic Events in the Mongolian Plateau from 1951 to 2012

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Lei; Yao, Zhi-Jun; Jiang, Liguang

    2016-01-01

    The spatiotemporal changes in 21 indices of extreme temperature and precipitation for the Mongolian Plateau from 1951 to 2012 were investigated on the basis of daily temperature and precipitation data from 70 meteorological stations. Changes in catastrophic events, such as droughts, floods, and s...

  8. A spatial and nonstationary model for the frequency of extreme rainfall events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2013-01-01

    of extreme rainfall events, a statistical model is tested for this purpose. The model is built on the theory of generalized linear models and uses Poisson regression solved by generalized estimation equations. Spatial and temporal explanatory variables can be included simultaneously, and their relative...

  9. Forest operations, extreme flooding events, and considerations for hydrologic modeling in the Appalachians--A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    M.A. Eisenbies; W.M. Aust; J.A. Burger; M.B. Adams

    2007-01-01

    The connection between forests and water resources is well established, but the relationships among controlling factors are only partly understood. Concern over the effects of forestry operations, particularly harvesting, on extreme flooding events is a recurrent issue in forest and watershed management. Due to the complexity of the system, and the cost of installing...

  10. Prevention through policy : Urban macroplastic leakages to the marine environment during extreme rainfall events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Axelsson, Charles; van Sebille, Erik

    2017-01-01

    The leakage of large plastic litter (macroplastics) into the ocean is a major environmental problem. A significant fraction of this leakage originates from coastal cities, particularly during extreme rainfall events. As coastal cities continue to grow, finding ways to reduce this macroplastic

  11. Community Response and Engagement During Extreme Water Events in Saskatchewan, Canada and Queensland, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMartin, Dena W.; Sammel, Alison J.; Arbuthnott, Katherine

    2018-01-01

    Technology alone cannot address the challenges of how societies, communities, and individuals understand water accessibility, water management, and water consumption, particularly under extreme conditions like floods and droughts. At the community level, people are increasingly aware challenges related to responses to and impacts of extreme water events. This research begins with an assessment of social and political capacities of communities in two Commonwealth jurisdictions, Queensland, Australia and Saskatchewan, Canada, in response to major flooding events. The research further reviews how such capacities impact community engagement to address and mitigate risks associated with extreme water events and provides evidence of key gaps in skills, understanding, and agency for addressing impacts at the community level. Secondary data were collected using template analysis to elucidate challenges associated with education (formal and informal), social and political capacity, community ability to respond appropriately, and formal government responses to extreme water events in these two jurisdictions. The results indicate that enhanced community engagement alongside elements of an empowerment model can provide avenues for identifying and addressing community vulnerability to negative impacts of flood and drought.

  12. Controlling spatio-temporal extreme events by decreasing the localized energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Du Lin; Xu Wei; Li Zhanguo; Zhou Bingchang

    2011-01-01

    The problem of controlling extreme events in spatially extended dynamical systems is investigated in this Letter. Based on observations of the system state, the control technique we proposed locally decreases the spatial energy of the amplitude in the vicinity of the highest burst, without needs of any knowledge or prediction of the system model. Considering the specific Complex Ginzburg-Landau equation, we provide theoretical analysis for designing the localized state feedback controller. More exactly, a simple control law by varying a damping parameter at control region is chose to achieve the control. Numerical simulations and statistic analysis demonstrate that extreme events can be efficiently suppressed by our strategy. In particular, the cost of the control and the tolerant time delay in applying the control is considered in detail. - Highlights: → We propose a local control scheme to suppress spatio-temporal extreme events. → The control is address by decreasing the spatial energy of the system locally. → The detail control law is to apply localized state feedback based on observations. → The cost of the control increases with the size of the control region exponentially. → The tolerant delay of the control is about 5-6 times of lifetime of extreme events.

  13. Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events : Challenges and directions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van de Pol, Martijn; Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Cornelissen, Johannes H.C.; Visser, Marcel E.

    2017-01-01

    More extreme climatic events (ECEs) are among the most prominent consequences of climate change. Despite a long-standing recognition of the importance of ECEs by paleo-ecologists and macro-evolutionary biologists, ECEs have only recently received a strong interest in the wider ecological and

  14. Artistic Creativity and Extreme Events: The Heterogeneous Impact of War on Composers’ Production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borowiecki, Karol Jan

    2014-01-01

    The relationship between extreme events and creativity is rather ambiguous and yet of significance across several disciplines. The following study adds to the debate by analyzing the impact of war on individual artistic output by building on a global sample of 115 prominent composers born after...

  15. Hazard analysis of typhoon-related external events using extreme value theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Yo Chan; Jang, Seung Cheol [Integrated Safety Assessment Division, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lim, Tae Jin [Dept. of Industrial Information Systems Engineering, Soongsil University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-02-15

    After the Fukushima accident, the importance of hazard analysis for extreme external events was raised. To analyze typhoon-induced hazards, which are one of the significant disasters of East Asian countries, a statistical analysis using the extreme value theory, which is a method for estimating the annual exceedance frequency of a rare event, was conducted for an estimation of the occurrence intervals or hazard levels. For the four meteorological variables, maximum wind speed, instantaneous wind speed, hourly precipitation, and daily precipitation, the parameters of the predictive extreme value theory models were estimated. The 100-year return levels for each variable were predicted using the developed models and compared with previously reported values. It was also found that there exist significant long-term climate changes of wind speed and precipitation. A fragility analysis should be conducted to ensure the safety levels of a nuclear power plant for high levels of wind speed and precipitation, which exceed the results of a previous analysis.

  16. Food Security and Extreme Events: Evidence from Smallholder Farmers in Central America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saborio-Rodriguez, M.; Alpizar, F.; Harvey, C.; Martinez, R.; Vignola, R.; Viguera, B.; Capitan, T.

    2016-12-01

    Extreme weather events, which are expected to increase in magnitude and frequency due to climate change, are one of the main threats for smallholder farmers in Central America. Using a rich dataset from carefully selected subsistence farm households, we explore the determinants and severity of food insecurity resulting from extreme hydrometeorological hazards. In addition, we analyze farmerś coping strategies. Our analysis sheds light over food insecurity as an expression of vulnerability in a region that is expected to be increasingly exposed to extreme events and in a population already stressed by poverty and lack of opportunities. Regarding food insecurity, multivariate analyses indicate that education, having at least one migrant in the household, labor allocation, number of plots, and producing coffee are determinants of the probability of experiencing lack of food after an extreme weather event. Once the household is lacking food, the duration of the episode is related to access to credit, number of plots, producing coffee, ownership of land and gender of the head of the household. This results are in line with previous literature on the determinants of food insecurity in particular, and vulnerability, in general. Our dataset also allows us to analyze coping strategies. Households experiencing lack of food after an extreme weather event report mainly changes in their habits, as decreasing the amount of food consumed (54%) and modifying their diet (35%). A low proportion of household (between 10% and 15%, depending on the nature of the event) use their assets, by redirecting their savings, migrating, and selling items from the house. Asking money or food from family and friends or from an organization is reported for 4% of the households. This general results are connected to the specific coping strategies related to damages in crops, which are explored in detail. Our results indicate that there are patterns among the household experiencing lack of food

  17. Transformation of soil organics under extreme climate events: a project description

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blagodatskaya, Evgenia

    2017-04-01

    Recent climate scenarios predict not only continued global warming but also an increased frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events such as strong changes in temperature and precipitation with unusual regional dynamics. Weather anomalies at European territory of Russia are currently revealed as long-term drought and strong showers in summer and as an increased frequency of soil freezing-thawing cycles. Climate extremes totally change biogeochemical processes and elements cycling both at the ecosystem level and at the level of soil profile mainly affecting soil biota. Misbalance in these processes can cause a reduction of soil carbon stock and an increase of greenhouse gases emission. Our project aims to reveal the transformation mechanisms of soil organic matter caused by extreme weather events taking into consideration the role of biotic-abiotic interactions in regulation of formation, maintenance and turnover of soil carbon stock. Our research strategy is based on the novel concept considering extreme climatic events (showers after long-term droughts, soil flooding, freezing-thawing) as abiotic factors initiating a microbial succession. Study on stoichiometric flexibility of plants under climate extremes as well as on resulting response of soil heterotrophs on stoichiometric changes in substrate will be used for experimental prove and further development of the theory of ecological stoichiometry. The results enable us to reveal the mechanisms of biotic - abiotic interactions responsible for the balance between mobilization and stabilization of soil organic matter. Identified mechanisms will form the basis of an ecosystem model enabled to predict the effects of extreme climatic events on biogenic carbon cycle in the biosphere.

  18. Revisiting the 1993 historical extreme precipitation and damaging flood event in Central Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marahatta, S.; Adhikari, L.; Pokharel, B.

    2017-12-01

    Nepal is ranked the fourth most climate-vulnerable country in the world and it is prone to different weather-related hazards including droughts, floods, and landslides [Wang et al., 2013; Gillies et al., 2013]. Although extremely vulnerable to extreme weather events, there are no extreme weather warning system established to inform public in Nepal. Nepal has witnessed frequent drought and flood events, however, the extreme precipitation that occurred on 19-20 July 1993 created a devastating flood and landslide making it the worst weather disaster in the history of Nepal. During the second week of July, Nepal and northern India experienced abnormal dry condition due to the shifting of the monsoon trough to central India. The dry weather changed to wet when monsoon trough moved northward towards foothills of the Himalayas. Around the same period, a low pressure center was located over the south-central Nepal. The surface low was supported by the mid-, upper-level shortwave and cyclonic vorticity. A meso-scale convective system created record breaking one day rainfall (540 mm) in the region. The torrential rain impacted the major hydropower reservoir, Bagmati barrage in Karmaiya and triggered many landslides and flash floods. The region had the largest hydropower (Kulekhani hydropower, 92 MW) of the country at that time and the storm event deposited extremely large amount of sediments that reduced one-fourth (4.8 million m3) of reservoir dead storage (12 million m3). The 1-in-1000 years flood damaged the newly constructed barrage and took more than 700 lives. Major highways were damaged cutting off supply of daily needed goods, including food and gas, in the capital city, Kathmandu, for more than a month. In this presentation, the meteorological conditions of the extreme event will be diagnosed and the impact of the sedimentation due to the flood on Kulekhani reservoir and hydropower generation will be discussed.

  19. Modeling extreme "Carrington-type" space weather events using three-dimensional global MHD simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngwira, Chigomezyo M.; Pulkkinen, Antti; Kuznetsova, Maria M.; Glocer, Alex

    2014-06-01

    There is a growing concern over possible severe societal consequences related to adverse space weather impacts on man-made technological infrastructure. In the last two decades, significant progress has been made toward the first-principles modeling of space weather events, and three-dimensional (3-D) global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) models have been at the forefront of this transition, thereby playing a critical role in advancing our understanding of space weather. However, the modeling of extreme space weather events is still a major challenge even for the modern global MHD models. In this study, we introduce a specially adapted University of Michigan 3-D global MHD model for simulating extreme space weather events with a Dst footprint comparable to the Carrington superstorm of September 1859 based on the estimate by Tsurutani et. al. (2003). Results are presented for a simulation run with "very extreme" constructed/idealized solar wind boundary conditions driving the magnetosphere. In particular, we describe the reaction of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system and the associated induced geoelectric field on the ground to such extreme driving conditions. The model setup is further tested using input data for an observed space weather event of Halloween storm October 2003 to verify the MHD model consistence and to draw additional guidance for future work. This extreme space weather MHD model setup is designed specifically for practical application to the modeling of extreme geomagnetically induced electric fields, which can drive large currents in ground-based conductor systems such as power transmission grids. Therefore, our ultimate goal is to explore the level of geoelectric fields that can be induced from an assumed storm of the reported magnitude, i.e., Dst˜=-1600 nT.

  20. Vulnerability assessment of Central-East Sardinia (Italy to extreme rainfall events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Bodini

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In Sardinia (Italy, the highest frequency of extreme events is recorded in the Central-East area (3–4 events per year. The presence of high and steep mountains near the sea on the central and south-eastern coast, causes an East-West precipitation gradient in autumn especially, due to hot and moist currents coming from Africa. Soil structure and utilization make this area highly vulnerable to flash flooding and landslides. The specific purpose of this work is to provide a description of the heavy rainfall phenomenon on a statistical basis. The analysis mainly focuses on i the existence of trends in heavy rainfall and ii the characterization of the distribution of extreme events. First, to study possible trends in extreme events a few indices have been analyzed by the linear regression test. The analysis has been carried out at annual and seasonal scales. Then, extreme values analysis has been carried out by fitting a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD to the data. As far as trends are concerned, different results are obtained at the two temporal scales: significant trends are obtained at the seasonal scale which are masked at the annual scale. By combining trend analysis and GPD analysis, the vulnerability of the study area to the occurrence of heavy rainfall has been characterized. Therefore, this work might support the improvement of land use planning and the application of suitable prevention systems. Future work will consider the extension of the analysis to all Sardinia and the application of statistical methods taking into account the spatial correlation of extreme events.

  1. AP1000R design robustness against extreme external events - Seismic, flooding, and aircraft crash

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pfister, A.; Goossen, C.; Coogler, K.; Gorgemans, J.

    2012-01-01

    Both the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) require existing and new nuclear power plants to conduct plant assessments to demonstrate the unit's ability to withstand external hazards. The events that occurred at the Fukushima-Dai-ichi nuclear power station demonstrated the importance of designing a nuclear power plant with the ability to protect the plant against extreme external hazards. The innovative design of the AP1000 R nuclear power plant provides unparalleled protection against catastrophic external events which can lead to extensive infrastructure damage and place the plant in an extended abnormal situation. The AP1000 plant is an 1100-MWe pressurized water reactor with passive safety features and extensive plant simplifications that enhance construction, operation, maintenance and safety. The plant's compact safety related footprint and protection provided by its robust nuclear island structures prevent significant damage to systems, structures, and components required to safely shutdown the plant and maintain core and spent fuel pool cooling and containment integrity following extreme external events. The AP1000 nuclear power plant has been extensively analyzed and reviewed to demonstrate that it's nuclear island design and plant layout provide protection against both design basis and extreme beyond design basis external hazards such as extreme seismic events, external flooding that exceeds the maximum probable flood limit, and malicious aircraft impact. The AP1000 nuclear power plant uses fail safe passive features to mitigate design basis accidents. The passive safety systems are designed to function without safety-grade support systems (such as AC power, component cooling water, service water, compressed air or HVAC). The plant has been designed to protect systems, structures, and components critical to placing the reactor in a safe shutdown condition within the steel containment vessel which is

  2. AP1000{sup R} design robustness against extreme external events - Seismic, flooding, and aircraft crash

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pfister, A.; Goossen, C.; Coogler, K.; Gorgemans, J. [Westinghouse Electric Company LLC, 1000 Westinghouse Drive, Cranberry Township, PA 16066 (United States)

    2012-07-01

    Both the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) require existing and new nuclear power plants to conduct plant assessments to demonstrate the unit's ability to withstand external hazards. The events that occurred at the Fukushima-Dai-ichi nuclear power station demonstrated the importance of designing a nuclear power plant with the ability to protect the plant against extreme external hazards. The innovative design of the AP1000{sup R} nuclear power plant provides unparalleled protection against catastrophic external events which can lead to extensive infrastructure damage and place the plant in an extended abnormal situation. The AP1000 plant is an 1100-MWe pressurized water reactor with passive safety features and extensive plant simplifications that enhance construction, operation, maintenance and safety. The plant's compact safety related footprint and protection provided by its robust nuclear island structures prevent significant damage to systems, structures, and components required to safely shutdown the plant and maintain core and spent fuel pool cooling and containment integrity following extreme external events. The AP1000 nuclear power plant has been extensively analyzed and reviewed to demonstrate that it's nuclear island design and plant layout provide protection against both design basis and extreme beyond design basis external hazards such as extreme seismic events, external flooding that exceeds the maximum probable flood limit, and malicious aircraft impact. The AP1000 nuclear power plant uses fail safe passive features to mitigate design basis accidents. The passive safety systems are designed to function without safety-grade support systems (such as AC power, component cooling water, service water, compressed air or HVAC). The plant has been designed to protect systems, structures, and components critical to placing the reactor in a safe shutdown condition within the steel

  3. THE 2012 JULY 23 BACKSIDE ERUPTION: AN EXTREME ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENT?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gopalswamy, N. [Code 671, Solar Physics Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States); Yashiro, S.; Thakur, N.; Mäkelä, P.; Xie, H.; Akiyama, S., E-mail: nat.gopalswamy@nasa.gov [Department of Physics, The Catholic University of America, Washington, DC 20064 (United States)

    2016-12-20

    The backside coronal mass ejection (CME) of 2012 July 23 had a short Sun-to-Earth shock transit time (18.5 hr). The associated solar energetic particle (SEP) event had a >10 MeV proton flux peaking at ∼5000 pfu, and the energetic storm particle event was an order of magnitude larger, making it the most intense event in the space era at these energies. By a detailed analysis of the CME, shock, and SEP characteristics, we find that the July 23 event is consistent with a high-energy SEP event (accelerating particles to gigaelectronvolt energies). The times of maximum and fluence spectra in the range 10–100 MeV were very hard, similar to those of ground-level enhancement (GLE) events. We found a hierarchical relationship between the CME initial speeds and the fluence spectral indices: CMEs with low initial speeds had SEP events with the softest spectra, while those with the highest initial speeds had SEP events with the hardest spectra. CMEs attaining intermediate speeds result in moderately hard spectra. The July 23 event was in the group of hard-spectrum events. During the July 23 event, the shock speed (>2000 km s{sup −1}), the initial acceleration (∼1.70 km s{sup −2}), and the shock-formation height (∼1.5 solar radii) were all typical of GLE events. The associated type II burst had emission components from meter to kilometer wavelengths, suggesting a strong shock. These observations confirm that the 2012 July 23 event is likely to be an extreme event in terms of the energetic particles it accelerated.

  4. Antarctic Climate Change: Extreme Events Disrupt Plastic Phenotypic Response in Adélie Penguins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lescroël, Amélie; Ballard, Grant; Grémillet, David; Authier, Matthieu; Ainley, David G.

    2014-01-01

    In the context of predicted alteration of sea ice cover and increased frequency of extreme events, it is especially timely to investigate plasticity within Antarctic species responding to a key environmental aspect of their ecology: sea ice variability. Using 13 years of longitudinal data, we investigated the effect of sea ice concentration (SIC) on the foraging efficiency of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) breeding in the Ross Sea. A ‘natural experiment’ brought by the exceptional presence of giant icebergs during 5 consecutive years provided unprecedented habitat variation for testing the effects of extreme events on the relationship between SIC and foraging efficiency in this sea-ice dependent species. Significant levels of phenotypic plasticity were evident in response to changes in SIC in normal environmental conditions. Maximum foraging efficiency occurred at relatively low SIC, peaking at 6.1% and decreasing with higher SIC. The ‘natural experiment’ uncoupled efficiency levels from SIC variations. Our study suggests that lower summer SIC than currently observed would benefit the foraging performance of Adélie penguins in their southernmost breeding area. Importantly, it also provides evidence that extreme climatic events can disrupt response plasticity in a wild seabird population. This questions the predictive power of relationships built on past observations, when not only the average climatic conditions are changing but the frequency of extreme climatic anomalies is also on the rise. PMID:24489657

  5. Current status and issues of external event PSA for extreme natural hazards after Fukushima accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, In-Kil; Hahm, Daegi; Kim, Min Kyu

    2014-01-01

    Extreme external events is emerged as significant risk contributor to the nuclear power plants after Fukushima Daiichi accident due to the catastrophic earthquake followed by great tsunami greater than a design basis. This accident shows that the extreme external events have the potential to simultaneously affect redundant and diverse safety systems and thereby induce common cause failure or common cause initiators. The probabilistic risk assessment methodology has been used for the risk assessment and safety improvement against the extreme natural hazards. The earthquake and tsunami hazard is an important issue for the nuclear industry in Korea. In this paper, the role and application of probabilistic safety assessment for the post Fukushima action will be introduced. For the evaluation of the extreme natural hazard, probabilistic seismic and tsunami hazard analysis is being performed for the safety enhancement. The research activity on the external event PSA and its interim results will be introduced with the issues to be solved in the future for the reliability enhancement of the risk analysis results. (authors)

  6. Antarctic climate change: extreme events disrupt plastic phenotypic response in Adélie penguins.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amélie Lescroël

    Full Text Available In the context of predicted alteration of sea ice cover and increased frequency of extreme events, it is especially timely to investigate plasticity within Antarctic species responding to a key environmental aspect of their ecology: sea ice variability. Using 13 years of longitudinal data, we investigated the effect of sea ice concentration (SIC on the foraging efficiency of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae breeding in the Ross Sea. A 'natural experiment' brought by the exceptional presence of giant icebergs during 5 consecutive years provided unprecedented habitat variation for testing the effects of extreme events on the relationship between SIC and foraging efficiency in this sea-ice dependent species. Significant levels of phenotypic plasticity were evident in response to changes in SIC in normal environmental conditions. Maximum foraging efficiency occurred at relatively low SIC, peaking at 6.1% and decreasing with higher SIC. The 'natural experiment' uncoupled efficiency levels from SIC variations. Our study suggests that lower summer SIC than currently observed would benefit the foraging performance of Adélie penguins in their southernmost breeding area. Importantly, it also provides evidence that extreme climatic events can disrupt response plasticity in a wild seabird population. This questions the predictive power of relationships built on past observations, when not only the average climatic conditions are changing but the frequency of extreme climatic anomalies is also on the rise.

  7. Simulation of the 23 July 2012 Extreme Space Weather Event: What if This Extremely Rare CME Was Earth Directed?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngwira, Chigomezyo M.; Pulkkinen, Antti; Mays, M. Leila; Kuznetsova, Maria M.; Galvin, A. B.; Simunac, Kristin; Baker, Daniel N.; Li, Xinlin; Zheng, Yihua; Glocer, Alex

    2013-01-01

    Extreme space weather events are known to cause adverse impacts on critical modern day technological infrastructure such as high-voltage electric power transmission grids. On 23 July 2012, NASA's Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory-Ahead (STEREO-A) spacecraft observed in situ an extremely fast coronal mass ejection (CME) that traveled 0.96 astronomical units (approx. 1 AU) in about 19 h. Here we use the SpaceWeather Modeling Framework (SWMF) to perform a simulation of this rare CME.We consider STEREO-A in situ observations to represent the upstream L1 solar wind boundary conditions. The goal of this study is to examine what would have happened if this Rare-type CME was Earth-bound. Global SWMF-generated ground geomagnetic field perturbations are used to compute the simulated induced geoelectric field at specific ground-based active INTERMAGNET magnetometer sites. Simulation results show that while modeled global SYM-H index, a high-resolution equivalent of the Dst index, was comparable to previously observed severe geomagnetic storms such as the Halloween 2003 storm, the 23 July CME would have produced some of the largest geomagnetically induced electric fields, making it very geoeffective. These results have important practical applications for risk management of electrical power grids.

  8. Mathematical aspects of assessing extreme events for the safety of nuclear plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potempski, Slawomir; Borysiewicz, Mieczyslaw

    2015-04-01

    In the paper the review of mathematical methodologies applied for assessing low frequencies of rare natural events like earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes or tornadoes, floods (in particular flash floods and surge storms), lightning, solar flares, etc., will be given in the perspective of the safety assessment of nuclear plants. The statistical methods are usually based on the extreme value theory, which deals with the analysis of extreme deviation from the median (or the mean). In this respect application of various mathematical tools can be useful, like: the extreme value theorem of Fisher-Tippett-Gnedenko leading to possible choices of general extreme value distributions, or the Pickands-Balkema-de Haan theorem for tail fitting, or the methods related to large deviation theory. In the paper the most important stochastic distributions relevant for performing rare events statistical analysis will be presented. This concerns, for example, the analysis of the data with the annual extreme values (maxima - "Annual Maxima Series" or minima), or the peak values, exceeding given thresholds at some periods of interest ("Peak Over Threshold"), or the estimation of the size of exceedance. Despite of the fact that there is a lack of sufficient statistical data directly containing rare events, in some cases it is still possible to extract useful information from existing larger data sets. As an example one can consider some data sets available from the web sites for floods, earthquakes or generally natural hazards. Some aspects of such data sets will be also presented taking into account their usefulness for the practical assessment of risk for nuclear power plants coming from extreme weather conditions.

  9. Optimal detection of burst events in gravitational wave interferometric observatories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vicere, Andrea

    2002-01-01

    We consider the problem of detecting a burst signal of unknown shape in the data from gravitational wave interferometric detectors. We introduce a statistic which generalizes the excess power statistic proposed first by Flanagan and Hughes, and then extended by Anderson et al. to the multiple detector case. The statistic that we propose is shown to be optimal for an arbitrary noise spectral characteristic, under the two hypotheses that the noise is Gaussian, albeit colored, and that the prior for the signal is uniform. The statistic derivation is based on the assumption that a signal affects only N parallel samples in the data stream, but that no other information is a priori available, and that the value of the signal at each sample can be arbitrary. This is the main difference from previous works, where different assumptions were made, such as a signal distribution uniform with respect to the metric induced by the (inverse) noise correlation matrix. The two choices are equivalent if the noise is white, and in that limit the two statistics do indeed coincide. In the general case, we believe that the statistic we propose may be more appropriate, because it does not reflect the characteristics of the noise affecting the detector on the supposed distribution of the gravitational wave signal. Moreover, we show that the proposed statistic can be easily implemented in its exact form, combining standard time-series analysis tools which can be efficiently implemented. We generalize this version of an excess power statistic to the multiple detector case, considering first a noise uncorrelated among the different instruments, and then including the effect of correlated noise. We discuss exact and approximate forms of the statistic; the choice depends on the characteristics of the noise and on the assumed length of the burst event. As an example, we show the sensitivity of the network of interferometers to a δ-function burst

  10. A systemic approach for managing extreme risk events-dynamic financial analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ph.D.Student Rodica Ianole

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Following the Black Swan logic, it often happens that what we do not know becomes more relevant that what we (believe to know. The management of extreme risks falls under this paradigm in the sense that it cannot be limited to a static approach based only on objective and easily quantifiable variables. Making appeal to the operational tools developed primarily for the insurance industry, the present paper aims to investigate how dynamic financial analysis (DFA can be used within the framework of extreme risk events.

  11. Impacts of extreme winter warming events on plant physiology in a sub-Arctic heath community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bokhorst, Stef; Bjerke, Jarle W; Davey, Matthew P; Taulavuori, Kari; Taulavuori, Erja; Laine, Kari; Callaghan, Terry V; Phoenix, Gareth K

    2010-10-01

    Insulation provided by snow cover and tolerance of freezing by physiological acclimation allows Arctic plants to survive cold winter temperatures. However, both the protection mechanisms may be lost with winter climate change, especially during extreme winter warming events where loss of snow cover from snow melt results in exposure of plants to warm temperatures and then returning extreme cold in the absence of insulating snow. These events cause considerable damage to Arctic plants, but physiological responses behind such damage remain unknown. Here, we report simulations of extreme winter warming events using infrared heating lamps and soil warming cables in a sub-Arctic heathland. During these events, we measured maximum quantum yield of photosystem II (PSII), photosynthesis, respiration, bud swelling and associated bud carbohydrate changes and lipid peroxidation to identify physiological responses during and after the winter warming events in three dwarf shrub species: Empetrum hermaphroditum, Vaccinium vitis-idaea and Vaccinium myrtillus. Winter warming increased maximum quantum yield of PSII, and photosynthesis was initiated for E. hermaphroditum and V. vitis-idaea. Bud swelling, bud carbohydrate decreases and lipid peroxidation were largest for E. hermaphroditum, whereas V. myrtillus and V. vitis-idaea showed no or less strong responses. Increased physiological activity and bud swelling suggest that sub-Arctic plants can initiate spring-like development in response to a short winter warming event. Lipid peroxidation suggests that plants experience increased winter stress. The observed differences between species in physiological responses are broadly consistent with interspecific differences in damage seen in previous studies, with E. hermaphroditum and V. myrtillus tending to be most sensitive. This suggests that initiation of spring-like development may be a major driver in the damage caused by winter warming events that are predicted to become more

  12. Characterization of extreme flood and drought events in Singapore and investigation of their relationships with ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xin; Babovic, Vladan

    2016-04-01

    Flood and drought are hydrologic extreme events that have significant impact on human and natural systems. Characterization of flood and drought in terms of their start, duration and strength, and investigation of the impact of natural climate variability (i.e., ENSO) and anthropogenic climate change on them can help decision makers to facilitate adaptions to mitigate potential enormous economic costs. To date, numerous studies in this area have been conducted, however, they are primarily focused on extra-tropical regions. Therefore, this study presented a detailed framework to characterize flood and drought events in a tropical urban city-state (i.e., Singapore), based on daily data from 26 precipitation stations. Flood and drought events are extracted from standardized precipitation anomalies from monthly to seasonal time scales. Frequency, duration and magnitude of flood and drought at all the stations are analyzed based on crossing theory. In addition, spatial variation of flood and drought characteristics in Singapore is investigated using ordinary kriging method. Lastly, the impact of ENSO condition on flood and drought characteristics is analyzed using regional regression method. The results show that Singapore can be prone to extreme flood and drought events at both monthly and seasonal time scales. ENSO has significant influence on flood and drought characteristics in Singapore, but mainly during the South West Monsoon season. During the El Niño phase, drought can become more extreme. The results have implications for water management practices in Singapore.

  13. Environmental prediction, risk assessment and extreme events: adaptation strategies for the developing world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webster, Peter J.; Jian, Jun

    2011-01-01

    The uncertainty associated with predicting extreme weather events has serious implications for the developing world, owing to the greater societal vulnerability to such events. Continual exposure to unanticipated extreme events is a contributing factor for the descent into perpetual and structural rural poverty. We provide two examples of how probabilistic environmental prediction of extreme weather events can support dynamic adaptation. In the current climate era, we describe how short-term flood forecasts have been developed and implemented in Bangladesh. Forecasts of impending floods with horizons of 10 days are used to change agricultural practices and planning, store food and household items and evacuate those in peril. For the first time in Bangladesh, floods were anticipated in 2007 and 2008, with broad actions taking place in advance of the floods, grossing agricultural and household savings measured in units of annual income. We argue that probabilistic environmental forecasts disseminated to an informed user community can reduce poverty caused by exposure to unanticipated extreme events. Second, it is also realized that not all decisions in the future can be made at the village level and that grand plans for water resource management require extensive planning and funding. Based on imperfect models and scenarios of economic and population growth, we further suggest that flood frequency and intensity will increase in the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Yangtze catchments as greenhouse-gas concentrations increase. However, irrespective of the climate-change scenario chosen, the availability of fresh water in the latter half of the twenty-first century seems to be dominated by population increases that far outweigh climate-change effects. Paradoxically, fresh water availability may become more critical if there is no climate change. PMID:22042897

  14. Hydro-meteorological extreme events in the 18th century in Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fragoso, Marcelo; João Alcoforado, Maria; Taborda, João Paulo

    2013-04-01

    The present work is carried out in the frame of the KLIMHIST PROJECT ("Reconstruction and model simulations of past climate in Portugal using documentary and early instrumental sources, 17th-19th century)", and is devoted to the study of hydro-meteorological extreme events during the last 350 years, in order to understand how they have changed in time and compare them with current analogues. More specifically, the results selected to this presentation will focus on some hydro-meteorological extreme events of the 18th century, like severe droughts, heavy precipitation episodes and windstorms. One of the most noteworthy events was the winterstorm Bárbara (3rd to 6th December 1739), already studied in prior investigations (Taborda et al, 2004; Pfister et al, 2010), a devastating storm with strong impacts in Portugal caused by violent winds and heavy rainfall. Several other extreme events were detected by searching different documentary archives, including individual, administrative and ecclesiastic sources. Moreover, a more detailed insight to the 1783-1787 period will be made with regard the Lisbon region, taking into consideration the availability of information for daily meteorological observations as well as documentary evidences, like descriptions from Gazeta de Lisboa, the periodic with more continuous publication in the 18thcentury. Key-words: Instrumental data, Documentary data, Extreme events, Klimhist Project, Portugal References Pfister, C., Garnier, E., Alcoforado, M.J., Wheeler, D. Luterbacher, J. Nunes, M.F., Taborda, J.P. (2010) The meteorological framework and the cultural memory of three severe winter-storms in early eighteenth-century Europe, Climatic Change, 101, 1-2, 281-310 Taborda, JP; Alcoforado, MJ and Garcia, JC (2004) O Clima do Sul de Portugal no Séc.XVIII, Centro de Estudos Geográficos, Área de de Investigação de Geo-Ecologia, relatório no 2

  15. Quantifying population exposure to airborne particulate matter during extreme events in California due to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmud, A.; Hixson, M.; Kleeman, M. J.

    2012-08-01

    The effect of climate change on population-weighted concentrations of particulate matter (PM) during extreme pollution events was studied using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the UCD/CIT 3-D photochemical air quality model. A "business as usual" (B06.44) global emissions scenario was dynamically downscaled for the entire state of California between the years 2000-2006 and 2047-2053. Air quality simulations were carried out for 1008 days in each of the present-day and future climate conditions using year-2000 emissions. Population-weighted concentrations of PM0.1, PM2.5, and PM10 total mass, components species, and primary source contributions were calculated for California and three air basins: the Sacramento Valley air basin (SV), the San Joaquin Valley air basin (SJV) and the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB). Results over annual-average periods were contrasted with extreme events. The current study found that the change in annual-average population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations due to climate change between 2000 vs. 2050 within any major sub-region in California was not statistically significant. However, climate change did alter the annual-average composition of the airborne particles in the SoCAB, with notable reductions of elemental carbon (EC; -3%) and organic carbon (OC; -3%) due to increased annual-average wind speeds that diluted primary concentrations from gasoline combustion (-3%) and food cooking (-4%). In contrast, climate change caused significant increases in population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations in central California during extreme events. The maximum 24-h average PM2.5 concentration experienced by an average person during a ten-yr period in the SJV increased by 21% due to enhanced production of secondary particulate matter (manifested as NH4NO3). In general, climate change caused increased stagnation during future extreme pollution events, leading to higher exposure to diesel engines

  16. Quantifying population exposure to airborne particulate matter during extreme events in California due to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Mahmud

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The effect of climate change on population-weighted concentrations of particulate matter (PM during extreme pollution events was studied using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model and the UCD/CIT 3-D photochemical air quality model. A "business as usual" (B06.44 global emissions scenario was dynamically downscaled for the entire state of California between the years 2000–2006 and 2047–2053. Air quality simulations were carried out for 1008 days in each of the present-day and future climate conditions using year-2000 emissions. Population-weighted concentrations of PM0.1, PM2.5, and PM10 total mass, components species, and primary source contributions were calculated for California and three air basins: the Sacramento Valley air basin (SV, the San Joaquin Valley air basin (SJV and the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB. Results over annual-average periods were contrasted with extreme events.

    The current study found that the change in annual-average population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations due to climate change between 2000 vs. 2050 within any major sub-region in California was not statistically significant. However, climate change did alter the annual-average composition of the airborne particles in the SoCAB, with notable reductions of elemental carbon (EC; −3% and organic carbon (OC; −3% due to increased annual-average wind speeds that diluted primary concentrations from gasoline combustion (−3% and food cooking (−4%. In contrast, climate change caused significant increases in population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations in central California during extreme events. The maximum 24-h average PM2.5 concentration experienced by an average person during a ten-yr period in the SJV increased by 21% due to enhanced production of secondary particulate matter (manifested as NH4NO3. In general, climate

  17. Holocene extreme hydrological events and their climatic implications: evidence from the middle Satluj valley, western Himalaya, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Shubhra; Shukla, Anil; Marh, Bhupinder; Bartarya, Sukesh; Juyal, Navin

    2016-04-01

    occurred during moderate monsoon. This observation corroborates well with the chronology of the flood sequences of the middle Satluj valley. We ascribe the floods to the transient monsoon/westerlies phases in the western Himalaya. Such phases are known to modulate the temporal changes in the pattern of the Rossby waves which in turn dictate the southward penetration of the cold arctic air masses during the Arctic Oscillations (AO). Finally, a steady decrease in the flood intervals probably suggests more frequent and rapid interaction between the monsoon and mid-latitude westerlies trough over the western Himalaya. With the anticipated global warming, the extreme flood events are likely to increase both in magnitude and frequency. Hence, emphasizes on the re-evaluation of ongoing infrastructure developmental activity, particularly the river valley projects in the Satluj river.

  18. Spatial and temporal analysis of extreme sea level and storm surge events around the coastline of the UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haigh, Ivan D; Wadey, Matthew P; Wahl, Thomas; Ozsoy, Ozgun; Nicholls, Robert J; Brown, Jennifer M; Horsburgh, Kevin; Gouldby, Ben

    2016-12-06

    In this paper we analyse the spatial footprint and temporal clustering of extreme sea level and skew surge events around the UK coast over the last 100 years (1915-2014). The vast majority of the extreme sea level events are generated by moderate, rather than extreme skew surges, combined with spring astronomical high tides. We distinguish four broad categories of spatial footprints of events and the distinct storm tracks that generated them. There have been rare events when extreme levels have occurred along two unconnected coastal regions during the same storm. The events that occur in closest succession (sea level events from happening within 4-8 days. Finally, the 2013/14 season was highly unusual in the context of the last 100 years from an extreme sea level perspective.

  19. Nonhydrostatic and surfbeat model predictions of extreme wave run-up in fringing reef environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lashley, Christopher H.; Roelvink, Dano; van Dongeren, Ap R.; Buckley, Mark L.; Lowe, Ryan J.

    2018-01-01

    The accurate prediction of extreme wave run-up is important for effective coastal engineering design and coastal hazard management. While run-up processes on open sandy coasts have been reasonably well-studied, very few studies have focused on understanding and predicting wave run-up at coral reef-fronted coastlines. This paper applies the short-wave resolving, Nonhydrostatic (XB-NH) and short-wave averaged, Surfbeat (XB-SB) modes of the XBeach numerical model to validate run-up using data from two 1D (alongshore uniform) fringing-reef profiles without roughness elements, with two objectives: i) to provide insight into the physical processes governing run-up in such environments; and ii) to evaluate the performance of both modes in accurately predicting run-up over a wide range of conditions. XBeach was calibrated by optimizing the maximum wave steepness parameter (maxbrsteep) in XB-NH and the dissipation coefficient (alpha) in XB-SB) using the first dataset; and then applied to the second dataset for validation. XB-NH and XB-SB predictions of extreme wave run-up (Rmax and R2%) and its components, infragravity- and sea-swell band swash (SIG and SSS) and shoreline setup (), were compared to observations. XB-NH more accurately simulated wave transformation but under-predicted shoreline setup due to its exclusion of parameterized wave-roller dynamics. XB-SB under-predicted sea-swell band swash but overestimated shoreline setup due to an over-prediction of wave heights on the reef flat. Run-up (swash) spectra were dominated by infragravity motions, allowing the short-wave (but not wave group) averaged model (XB-SB) to perform comparably well to its more complete, short-wave resolving (XB-NH) counterpart. Despite their respective limitations, both modes were able to accurately predict Rmax and R2%.

  20. Extreme value predictions and critical wave episodes for marine structures by FORM

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jørgen Juncher

    2007-01-01

    The aim of the present paper is to advocate for a very effective stochastic procedure, based on the First Order Reliability Method (FORM), for extreme value predictions related to wave induced loads. Three different applications will be illustrated. The first deals with a jack-up rig where second...... order stochastic waves are included in the analysis. The second application is parametric roll motions of ships. Finally, the motion of a TLP floating foundation for an offshore wind turbine is analysed taking into account large motions....

  1. Extreme value predictions and critical wave episodes for marine structures by FORM

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jørgen Juncher

    2008-01-01

    The aim of the present paper is to advocate for a very effective stochastic procedure, based on the First Order Reliability Method (FORM), for extreme value predictions related to wave induced loads. Three different applications will be illustrated. The first deals with a jack-up rig where second...... order stochastic waves are included in the analysis. The second application is parametric roll motions of ships. Finally, the motion of a TLP floating foundation for an offshore wind turbine is analysed taking into account large motions....

  2. Do climate extreme events foster violent civil conflicts? A coincidence analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Donges, Jonathan F.; Donner, Reik V.

    2014-05-01

    Civil conflicts promoted by adverse environmental conditions represent one of the most important potential feedbacks in the global socio-environmental nexus. While the role of climate extremes as a triggering factor is often discussed, no consensus is yet reached about the cause-and-effect relation in the observed data record. Here we present results of a rigorous statistical coincidence analysis based on the Munich Re Inc. extreme events database and the Uppsala conflict data program. We report evidence for statistically significant synchronicity between climate extremes with high economic impact and violent conflicts for various regions, although no coherent global signal emerges from our analysis. Our results indicate the importance of regional vulnerability and might aid to identify hot-spot regions for potential climate-triggered violent social conflicts.

  3. Committed Vulnerability to Extreme Weather Events in the United States (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preston, B. L.

    2013-12-01

    Despite improvements in disaster risk management in the United States, a trend toward increasing economic losses from extreme weather events has been observed. This trend has been attributed to growth in socioeconomic exposure to extremes driven by the concentration of population and wealth on hazardous landscapes. As geographic patterns of demography and economic development are associated with strong path dependence, the United States is ';locked-in' to future increases in exposure and associated economic losses in the decades ahead, irrespective of the influence of climate change. To understand the influence of path dependence on past and future losses, an index of potential socioeconomic exposure was developed at the U.S. county level based upon population size and inflation-adjusted wealth proxies. Since 1960, exposure has increased preferentially in the U.S. Southeast, particularly coastal and urban counties and Southwest relative to the Great Plains and Northeast. Projected changes in exposure from 2009 to 2054 based upon scenarios of future demographic and economic change suggest a long-term commitment to increasing, but spatially heterogeneous, exposure to extremes, independent of climate change. The implications of this path dependence are examined in the context of several natural hazards. Annualized county-level losses from 1960-2008 for five climate-related natural hazards were normalized to 2009 values and then scaled based upon projected changes in exposure and two different estimates of the exposure elasticity of losses. Results indicate that losses from extreme events will grow by a factor of 1.3-1.7 and 1.8-3.9 by 2025 and 2050, respectively, with the exposure elasticity representing a major source of uncertainty. At more local scales, however, such as rapidly growing metropolitan areas, losses are anticipated to grow more rapidly. As such, improving understanding of the societal implications of the extreme weather events of the future

  4. Comparison of annual maximum series and partial duration series methods for modeling extreme hydrologic events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Rasmussen, Peter F.; Rosbjerg, Dan

    1997-01-01

    Two different models for analyzing extreme hydrologic events, based on, respectively, partial duration series (PDS) and annual maximum series (AMS), are compared. The PDS model assumes a generalized Pareto distribution for modeling threshold exceedances corresponding to a generalized extreme value......). In the case of ML estimation, the PDS model provides the most efficient T-year event estimator. In the cases of MOM and PWM estimation, the PDS model is generally preferable for negative shape parameters, whereas the AMS model yields the most efficient estimator for positive shape parameters. A comparison...... of the considered methods reveals that in general, one should use the PDS model with MOM estimation for negative shape parameters, the PDS model with exponentially distributed exceedances if the shape parameter is close to zero, the AMS model with MOM estimation for moderately positive shape parameters, and the PDS...

  5. Developing research about extreme events and impacts to support international climate policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Friederike; James, Rachel; Parker, Hannah; Boyd, Emily; Jones, Richard; Allen, Myles; Mitchell, Daniel; Cornforth, Rosalind

    2015-04-01

    Climate change is expected to have some of its most significant impacts through changes in the frequency and severity of extreme events. There is a pressing need for policy to support adaptation to changing climate risks, and to deal with residual loss and damage from climate change. In 2013, the Warsaw International Mechanism was established by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to address loss and damage in developing countries. Strategies to help vulnerable regions cope with losses from extreme events will presumably require information about the influence of anthropogenic forcing on extreme weather. But what kind of scientific evidence will be most useful for the Warsaw Mechanism? And how can the scientific communities working on extreme events and impacts develop their research to support the advance of this important policy? As climate scientists conducting probabilistic event attribution studies, we have been working with social scientists to investigate these questions. Our own research seeks to examine the role of external drivers, including greenhouse gas emissions, on the risk of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, flooding, and drought. We use large ensembles of climate models to compute the probability of occurrence of extreme events under current conditions and in a world which might have been without anthropogenic interference. In cases where the models are able to simulate extreme weather, the analysis allows for conclusions about the extent to which climate change may have increased, decreased, or made no change to the risk of the event occurring. These results could thus have relevance for the UNFCCC negotiations on loss and damage, and we have been communicating with policymakers and observers to the policy process to better understand how we can develop our research to support their work; by attending policy meetings, conducting interviews, and using a participatory game developed with the Red Cross

  6. Complex active regions as the main source of extreme and large solar proton events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishkov, V. N.

    2013-12-01

    A study of solar proton sources indicated that solar flare events responsible for ≥2000 pfu proton fluxes mostly occur in complex active regions (CARs), i.e., in transition structures between active regions and activity complexes. Different classes of similar structures and their relation to solar proton events (SPEs) and evolution, depending on the origination conditions, are considered. Arguments in favor of the fact that sunspot groups with extreme dimensions are CARs are presented. An analysis of the flare activity in a CAR resulted in the detection of "physical" boundaries, which separate magnetic structures of the same polarity and are responsible for the independent development of each structure.

  7. Climate Central World Weather Attribution (WWA) project: Real-time extreme weather event attribution analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haustein, Karsten; Otto, Friederike; Uhe, Peter; Allen, Myles; Cullen, Heidi

    2015-04-01

    Extreme weather detection and attribution analysis has emerged as a core theme in climate science over the last decade or so. By using a combination of observational data and climate models it is possible to identify the role of climate change in certain types of extreme weather events such as sea level rise and its contribution to storm surges, extreme heat events and droughts or heavy rainfall and flood events. These analyses are usually carried out after an extreme event has occurred when reanalysis and observational data become available. The Climate Central WWA project will exploit the increasing forecast skill of seasonal forecast prediction systems such as the UK MetOffice GloSea5 (Global seasonal forecasting system) ensemble forecasting method. This way, the current weather can be fed into climate models to simulate large ensembles of possible weather scenarios before an event has fully emerged yet. This effort runs along parallel and intersecting tracks of science and communications that involve research, message development and testing, staged socialization of attribution science with key audiences, and dissemination. The method we employ uses a very large ensemble of simulations of regional climate models to run two different analyses: one to represent the current climate as it was observed, and one to represent the same events in the world that might have been without human-induced climate change. For the weather "as observed" experiment, the atmospheric model uses observed sea surface temperature (SST) data from GloSea5 (currently) and present-day atmospheric gas concentrations to simulate weather events that are possible given the observed climate conditions. The weather in the "world that might have been" experiments is obtained by removing the anthropogenic forcing from the observed SSTs, thereby simulating a counterfactual world without human activity. The anthropogenic forcing is obtained by comparing the CMIP5 historical and natural simulations

  8. Credible occurrence probabilities for extreme geophysical events: earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, magnetic storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, Jeffrey J.

    2012-01-01

    Statistical analysis is made of rare, extreme geophysical events recorded in historical data -- counting the number of events $k$ with sizes that exceed chosen thresholds during specific durations of time $\\tau$. Under transformations that stabilize data and model-parameter variances, the most likely Poisson-event occurrence rate, $k/\\tau$, applies for frequentist inference and, also, for Bayesian inference with a Jeffreys prior that ensures posterior invariance under changes of variables. Frequentist confidence intervals and Bayesian (Jeffreys) credibility intervals are approximately the same and easy to calculate: $(1/\\tau)[(\\sqrt{k} - z/2)^{2},(\\sqrt{k} + z/2)^{2}]$, where $z$ is a parameter that specifies the width, $z=1$ ($z=2$) corresponding to $1\\sigma$, $68.3\\%$ ($2\\sigma$, $95.4\\%$). If only a few events have been observed, as is usually the case for extreme events, then these "error-bar" intervals might be considered to be relatively wide. From historical records, we estimate most likely long-term occurrence rates, 10-yr occurrence probabilities, and intervals of frequentist confidence and Bayesian credibility for large earthquakes, explosive volcanic eruptions, and magnetic storms.

  9. Attribution of Extreme Rainfall Events in the South of France Using EURO-CORDEX Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luu, L. N.; Vautard, R.; Yiou, P.

    2017-12-01

    The Mediterranean region regularly undergoes episodes of intense precipitation in the fall season that exceed 300mm a day. This study focuses on the role of climate change on the dynamics of the events that occur in the South of France. We used an ensemble of 10 EURO-CORDEX model simulations with two horizontal resolutions (EUR-11: 0.11° and EUR-44: 0.44°) for the attribution of extreme rainfall in the fall in the Cevennes mountain range (South of France). The biases of the simulations were corrected with simple scaling adjustment and a quantile correction (CDFt). This produces five datasets including EUR-44 and EUR-11 with and without scaling adjustment and CDFt-EUR-11, on which we test the impact of resolution and bias correction on the extremes. Those datasets, after pooling all of models together, are fitted by a stationary Generalized Extreme Value distribution for several periods to estimate a climate change signal in the tail of distribution of extreme rainfall in the Cévenne region. Those changes are then interpreted by a scaling model that links extreme rainfall with mean and maximum daily temperature. The results show that higher-resolution simulations with bias adjustment provide a robust and confident increase of intensity and likelihood of occurrence of autumn extreme rainfall in the area in current climate in comparison with historical climate. The probability (exceedance probability) of 1-in-1000-year event in historical climate may increase by a factor of 1.8 under current climate with a confident interval of 0.4 to 5.3 following the CDFt bias-adjusted EUR-11. The change of magnitude appears to follow the Clausius-Clapeyron relation that indicates a 7% increase in rainfall per 1oC increase in temperature.

  10. The role of the subtropical North Atlantic water cycle in recent US extreme precipitation events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Laifang; Schmitt, Raymond W.; Ummenhofer, Caroline C.

    2018-02-01

    The role of the oceanic water cycle in the record-breaking 2015 warm-season precipitation in the US is analyzed. The extreme precipitation started in the Southern US in the spring and propagated northward to the Midwest and the Great Lakes in the summer of 2015. This seasonal evolution of precipitation anomalies represents a typical mode of variability of US warm-season precipitation. Analysis of the atmospheric moisture flux suggests that such a rainfall mode is associated with moisture export from the subtropical North Atlantic. In the spring, excessive precipitation in the Southern US is attributable to increased moisture flux from the northwestern portion of the subtropical North Atlantic. The North Atlantic moisture flux interacts with local soil moisture which enables the US Midwest to draw more moisture from the Gulf of Mexico in the summer. Further analysis shows that the relationship between the rainfall mode and the North Atlantic water cycle has become more significant in recent decades, indicating an increased likelihood of extremes like the 2015 case. Indeed, two record-high warm-season precipitation events, the 1993 and 2008 cases, both occurred in the more recent decades of the 66 year analysis period. The export of water from the North Atlantic leaves a marked surface salinity signature. The salinity signature appeared in the spring preceding all three extreme precipitation events analyzed in this study, i.e. a saltier-than-normal subtropical North Atlantic in spring followed by extreme Midwest precipitation in summer. Compared to the various sea surface temperature anomaly patterns among the 1993, 2008, and 2015 cases, the spatial distribution of salinity anomalies was much more consistent during these extreme flood years. Thus, our study suggests that preseason salinity patterns can be used for improved seasonal prediction of extreme precipitation in the Midwest.

  11. Modelling of extreme rainfall events in Peninsular Malaysia based on annual maximum and partial duration series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zin, Wan Zawiah Wan; Shinyie, Wendy Ling; Jemain, Abdul Aziz

    2015-02-01

    In this study, two series of data for extreme rainfall events are generated based on Annual Maximum and Partial Duration Methods, derived from 102 rain-gauge stations in Peninsular from 1982-2012. To determine the optimal threshold for each station, several requirements must be satisfied and Adapted Hill estimator is employed for this purpose. A semi-parametric bootstrap is then used to estimate the mean square error (MSE) of the estimator at each threshold and the optimal threshold is selected based on the smallest MSE. The mean annual frequency is also checked to ensure that it lies in the range of one to five and the resulting data is also de-clustered to ensure independence. The two data series are then fitted to Generalized Extreme Value and Generalized Pareto distributions for annual maximum and partial duration series, respectively. The parameter estimation methods used are the Maximum Likelihood and the L-moment methods. Two goodness of fit tests are then used to evaluate the best-fitted distribution. The results showed that the Partial Duration series with Generalized Pareto distribution and Maximum Likelihood parameter estimation provides the best representation for extreme rainfall events in Peninsular Malaysia for majority of the stations studied. Based on these findings, several return values are also derived and spatial mapping are constructed to identify the distribution characteristic of extreme rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia.

  12. OCCURRENCE OF EXTREME SOLAR PARTICLE EVENTS: ASSESSMENT FROM HISTORICAL PROXY DATA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Usoskin, Ilya G.; Kovaltsov, Gennady A.

    2012-01-01

    The probability of occurrence of extreme solar particle events (SPEs) with proton fluence (>30 MeV) F 30 ≥ 10 10 cm –2 is evaluated based on data on the cosmogenic isotopes 14 C and 10 Be in terrestrial archives covering centennial-millennial timescales. Four potential candidates with F 30 = (1-1.5) × 10 10 cm –2 and no events with F 30 > 2 × 10 10 cm –2 are identified since 1400 AD in the annually resolved 10 Be data. A strong SPE related to the Carrington flare of 1859 AD is not supported by the data. For the last 11,400 years, 19 SPE candidates with F 30 = (1-3) × 10 10 cm –2 are found and clearly no event with F 30 > 5 × 10 10 cm –2 (50 times the SPE of 1956 February 23) has occurred. These values serve as observational upper limits on the strength of SPEs on the timescale of tens of millennia. Two events, ca. 780 and 1460 AD, appear in different data series making them strong candidates for extreme SPEs. We build a distribution of the occurrence probability of extreme SPEs, providing a new strict observational constraint. Practical limits can be set as F 30 ≈ 1, 2-3, and 5×10 10 cm –2 for occurrence probabilities ≈10 –2 , 10 –3 , and 10 –4 yr –1 , respectively. Because of the uncertainties, our results should be interpreted as a conservative upper limit on the SPE occurrence near Earth. The mean solar energetic particle (SEP) flux is evaluated as ≈40 (cm 2 s) –1 , in agreement with estimates from lunar rocks. On average, extreme SPEs contribute about 10% to the total SEP fluence.

  13. An impact of deforestation by extreme weather events on Sphagnum peatland ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slowinski, M. M.; Łuców, D.; Kołaczek, P.; Tjallingii, R.; Lane, C. S.; Slowinska, S.; Tyszkowski, S.; Łokas, E.; Theuerkauf, M.; Brauer, A.; Lamentowicz, M.

    2017-12-01

    An increase in extreme weather phenomena has been observed over the last decades as a result of global climate warming. Terrestrial ecosystems are influenced by different types of disturbances such as e.g. deforestation, land-use, fragmentation, fire, floods or storms. Disturbance triggers may be natural or anthropogenic, but usually we observe negative feedback loops and interconnected causal factors. Here we investigate the effects of a tornado event on the peatland ecosystem of the Tuchola Pinewoods, Northern Poland. Deforestation by tornado events can cause severe perturbations of the hydrology and erosion that, in turn, affects adjacent lakes and peatlands. Martwe peatland provide an exceptional opportunity to study the impact of such extreme events, as it was struck by a tornado in 2012. Our research is focused on lake-peatland ecosystems that were directly affected by this tornado, and we consider the general transformation of the vegetation (mainly forests) over the last 150 years. Extensive clearing of the forest occurred in the nineteenth century due to human activity, and we compare this with the impact of the 2012 tornado. Accurate reconstructions will rely on a broad range of palaeoecological techniques such as pollen, macro-remains and testate amoebae, but also on geochemistry, i.e. μXRF scanning. The chronology of the records is based on 210Pb and radiocarbon dating and will incorporate correlations using (crypto)tephra markers of the Eyjafjöll (2010) and Askja (1875) eruptions. We expect to observe that disturbance (tornado-induced deforestation) affects the short-term changes in peatland productivity and biodiversity, through a cascading "top-down" effect. This research addresses the emerging issue of the impact of extreme phenomena and more general climate changes on peatland ecosystems, which will potentially help to inform adaptations to the environmental consequences of extreme events in the future. This project is funded by the Polish

  14. Quantifying population exposure to airborne particulate matter during extreme events in California due to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    A. Mahmud; M. Hixson; M. J. Kleeman

    2012-01-01

    The effect of climate change on population-weighted concentrations of particulate matter (PM) during extreme events was studied using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the UCD/CIT 3-D photochemical air quality model. A "business as usual" (B06.44) global emissions scenario was dynamically downscaled for the entire state of California between the years 2000–2006 and 2047–2053. Air quality simulations were carried out for ...

  15. Quantifying population exposure to airborne particulate matter during extreme events in California due to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    A. Mahmud; M. Hixson; M. J. Kleeman

    2012-01-01

    The effect of climate change on population-weighted concentrations of particulate matter (PM) during extreme pollution events was studied using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the UCD/CIT 3-D photochemical air quality model. A "business as usual" (B06.44) global emissions scenario was dynamically downscaled for the entire state of California between the years 2000–2006 and 2047–2053. Air quality simulations were carried out for 1008 days ...

  16. Epicenter Location of Regional Seismic Events Using Love Wave and Rayleigh Wave Ambient Seismic Noise Green's Functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levshin, A. L.; Barmin, M. P.; Moschetti, M. P.; Mendoza, C.; Ritzwoller, M. H.

    2011-12-01

    We describe a novel method to locate regional seismic events based on exploiting Empirical Green's Functions (EGF) that are produced from ambient seismic noise. Elastic EGFs between pairs of seismic stations are determined by cross-correlating long time-series of ambient noise recorded at the two stations. The EGFs principally contain Rayleigh waves on the vertical-vertical cross-correlations and Love waves on the transverse-transverse cross-correlations. Earlier work (Barmin et al., "Epicentral location based on Rayleigh wave empirical Green's functions from ambient seismic noise", Geophys. J. Int., 2011) showed that group time delays observed on Rayleigh wave EGFs can be exploited to locate to within about 1 km moderate sized earthquakes using USArray Transportable Array (TA) stations. The principal advantage of the method is that the ambient noise EGFs are affected by lateral variations in structure similarly to the earthquake signals, so the location is largely unbiased by 3-D structure. However, locations based on Rayleigh waves alone may be biased by more than 1 km if the earthquake depth is unknown but lies between 2 km and 7 km. This presentation is motivated by the fact that group time delays for Love waves are much less affected by earthquake depth than Rayleigh waves; thus exploitation of Love wave EGFs may reduce location bias caused by uncertainty in event depth. The advantage of Love waves to locate seismic events, however, is mitigated by the fact that Love wave EGFs have a smaller SNR than Rayleigh waves. Here, we test the use of Love and Rayleigh wave EGFs between 5- and 15-sec period to locate seismic events based on the USArray TA in the western US. We focus on locating aftershocks of the 2008 M 6.0 Wells earthquake, mining blasts in Wyoming and Montana, and small earthquakes near Norman, OK and Dallas, TX, some of which may be triggered by hydrofracking or injection wells.

  17. ENERGETIC EXTREMES IN A HOSTILE HABITAT: FISH LOCOMOTION ON WAVE-SWEPT CORAL REEFS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Steffensen, John Fleng

    2010-01-01

    , and wing-like fins that generate lift-based thrust at high speed. Literally flying underwater, Stethojulis and other winged-fin species are the most abundant fish in wave-swept coral reef habitats. We discuss the extreme swimming performance of these reef fishes within the context of other non......-scombrid and scombrid fishes, and illustrate how such performance has contributed to their domination of shallow coral reef habitats worldwide....

  18. Agent Based Simulation of Group Emotions Evolution and Strategy Intervention in Extreme Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bo Li

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Agent based simulation method has become a prominent approach in computational modeling and analysis of public emergency management in social science research. The group emotions evolution, information diffusion, and collective behavior selection make extreme incidents studies a complex system problem, which requires new methods for incidents management and strategy evaluation. This paper studies the group emotion evolution and intervention strategy effectiveness using agent based simulation method. By employing a computational experimentation methodology, we construct the group emotion evolution as a complex system and test the effects of three strategies. In addition, the events-chain model is proposed to model the accumulation influence of the temporal successive events. Each strategy is examined through three simulation experiments, including two make-up scenarios and a real case study. We show how various strategies could impact the group emotion evolution in terms of the complex emergence and emotion accumulation influence in extreme events. This paper also provides an effective method of how to use agent-based simulation for the study of complex collective behavior evolution problem in extreme incidents, emergency, and security study domains.

  19. Estimation of the impact of climate change-induced extreme precipitation events on floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hlavčová, Kamila; Lapin, Milan; Valent, Peter; Szolgay, Ján; Kohnová, Silvia; Rončák, Peter

    2015-09-01

    In order to estimate possible changes in the flood regime in the mountainous regions of Slovakia, a simple physically-based concept for climate change-induced changes in extreme 5-day precipitation totals is proposed in the paper. It utilizes regionally downscaled scenarios of the long-term monthly means of the air temperature, specific air humidity and precipitation projected for Central Slovakia by two regional (RCM) and two global circulation models (GCM). A simplified physically-based model for the calculation of short-term precipitation totals over the course of changing air temperatures, which is used to drive a conceptual rainfall-runoff model, was proposed. In the paper a case study of this approach in the upper Hron river basin in Central Slovakia is presented. From the 1981-2010 period, 20 events of the basin's most extreme average of 5-day precipitation totals were selected. Only events with continual precipitation during 5 days were considered. These 5-day precipitation totals were modified according to the RCM and GCM-based scenarios for the future time horizons of 2025, 2050 and 2075. For modelling runoff under changed 5-day precipitation totals, a conceptual rainfall-runoff model developed at the Slovak University of Technology was used. Changes in extreme mean daily discharges due to climate change were compared with the original flood events and discussed.

  20. Dendroclimate evidence for extreme hydrologic events over the late Holocene in the Northeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearl, J. K.; Anchukaitis, K. J.; Pederson, N.; Donnelly, J. P.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme hydrologic events pose a present and future threat to cities and infrastructure in the densely populated coastal corridor of the northeastern United States (NE). An understanding of the potential range and return interval of storms, floods, and droughts is important for improving coastal management and hazard planning, as well as the detection and attribution of trends in regional climate phenomena. Here, we examine a suite of evidence for Common Era paleohydroclimate extreme events in the NE. Our study analyzes a network of hydroclimate sensitive trees, subfossil 'drowned' forests and co-located sediment records, using both classical and isotope dendrochronology, radiocarbon analyses, and sediment stratigraphy. Atlantic White cedar (AWC) forests grow along the NE coast and are exposed to severe coastal weather, as they are typically most successful in near-shore, glacially formed depressions. Many coastal AWC sites are ombrotrophic and contain a precipitation or drought signal in their ring widths. Sub-fossil AWC forests are found where near-shore swamps were drowned and exposed to the ocean. Additionally, the rings of coastal AWC may contain the geochemical signature of landfalling tropical cyclones, which bring with them a large influx of precipitation with distinct oxygen isotopes, which can be used to identify these large storms. Dendrochronology, radiocarbon dating, and analysis of sediment cores are used here to identify and date the occurrence of large overwash events along the coastline of the northeastern United States associated with extreme storms.

  1. Coping Strategies to Deal with Environmental Variability and Extreme Climatic Events in the Peruvian Anchovy Fishery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marilú Bouchon

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The Peruvian anchovy fishery is the largest worldwide in terms of catches. The fishery started during the mid 1950s, and since then it has been highly dependent on natural stock fluctuations, due to the sensitivity of anchovy stocks to ocean-climate variability. The main driver of anchovy stock variability is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO, and three extreme ENSO warm events were recorded in 1972–1973, 1983–1984 and 1997–1998. This study investigates the evolution of coping strategies developed by the anchovy fisheries to deal with climate variability and extreme ENSO events. Results showed eight coping strategies to reduce impacts on the fishery. These included: decentralized installation of anchovy processing factories; simultaneous ownership of fishing fleet and processing factories; use of low-cost unloading facilities; opportunistic utilization of invading fish populations; low cost intensive monitoring; rapid flexible management; reduction of fishmeal price uncertainty through controlled production based on market demand; and decoupling of fishmeal prices from those of other protein-rich feed substitutes like soybean. This research shows that there are concrete lessons to be learned from successful adaptations to cope with climate change-related extreme climatic events that impact the supply of natural resources. The lessons can contribute to improved policies for coping with climate change in the commercial fishery sector.

  2. Psychological and Physical Impacts of Extreme Events on Older Adults: Implications for Communications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClelland, Erin; Amlôt, Richard; Rogers, M Brooke; Rubin, G James; Tesh, John; Pearce, Julia M

    2017-02-01

    In recent years, a series of large-scale, high-profile natural disasters and terrorist attacks have demonstrated the need for thorough and effective disaster preparedness. While these extreme events affect communities and societies as a whole, they also carry specific risks for particular population groups. Crises such as Hurricane Katrina and the 2011 earthquake and tsunami disaster in Japan have illustrated the risk of significant and disproportionate morbidity and mortality among older adults during disasters. Age does not necessarily equate to vulnerability, but many physical and psychological consequences of the aging process can increase the risk of adverse outcomes. As the older population grows, so too does the need to ensure that adequate, practical, and appropriate measures exist to offset the specific risks from extreme events associated with this subpopulation. Effective risk and crisis communication plays a key role in mitigating the extent to which older adults are differentially affected during extreme events. By identifying the specific issues affecting older adults, this review highlights important areas for action for practitioners and policy-makers, particularly in the realm of crisis communication. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;11:127-134).

  3. Are extreme hydro-meteorological events a prerequisite for extreme water quality impacts? Exploring climate impacts on inland and coastal waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michalak, A. M.; Balaji, V.; Del Giudice, D.; Sinha, E.; Zhou, Y.; Ho, J. C.

    2017-12-01

    Questions surrounding water sustainability, climate change, and extreme events are often framed around water quantity - whether too much or too little. The massive impacts of extreme water quality impairments are equally compelling, however. Recent years have provided a host of compelling examples, with unprecedented harmful algal blooms developing along the West coast, in Utah Lake, in Lake Erie, and off the Florida coast, and huge hypoxic dead zones continuing to form in regions such as Lake Erie, the Chesapeake Bay, and the Gulf of Mexico. Linkages between climate change, extreme events, and water quality impacts are not well understood, however. Several factors explain this lack of understanding, including the relative complexity of underlying processes, the spatial and temporal scale mismatch between hydrologists and climatologists, and observational uncertainty leading to ambiguities in the historical record. Here, we draw on a number of recent studies that aim to quantitatively link meteorological variability and water quality impacts to test the hypothesis that extreme water quality impairments are the result of extreme hydro-meteorological events. We find that extreme hydro-meteorological events are neither always a necessary nor a sufficient condition for the occurrence of extreme water quality impacts. Rather, extreme water quality impairments often occur in situations where multiple contributing factors compound, which complicates both attribution of historical events and the ability to predict the future incidence of such events. Given the critical societal importance of water quality projections, a concerted program of uncertainty reduction encompassing observational and modeling components will be needed to examine situations where extreme weather plays an important, but not solitary, role in the chain of cause and effect.

  4. Evidence of Teleconnections between the Peruvian central Andes and Northeast Brazil during extreme rainfall events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulca, J. C.; Vuille, M. F.; Silva, F. Y.; Takahashi, K.

    2013-12-01

    Knowledge about changes in regional circulation and physical processes associated with extreme rainfall events in South America is limited. Here we investigate such events over the Mantaro basin (MB) located at (10°S-13°S; 73°W-76°W) in the central Peruvian Andes and Northeastern Brazil (NEB), located at (9°S-15°S; 39°W-46°W). Occasional dry and wet spells can be observed in both areas during the austral summer season. The main goal of this study is to investigate potential teleconnections between extreme rainfall events in MB and NEB during austral summer. We define wet (dry) spells as periods that last for at least 3 (5) consecutive days with rainfall above (below) the 70 (30) percentile. To identify the dates of ocurrence of these events, we used daily accumulated rainfall data from 14 climate stations located in the Mantaro basin for the period 1965 to 2002. In NEB we defined a rainfall index which is based on average daily gridded rainfall data within the region for the same period. Dry (wet spells) in the MB are associated with positive (negative) OLR anomalies which extend over much of the tropical Andes, indicating the large-scale nature of these events. At 200 hPa anomalous easterly (westerly) zonal winds aloft accompany wet (dry) spells. Composite anomalies of dry spells in MB reveal significant contemporaneous precipitation anomalies of the opposite sign over NEB, which suggest that intraseasonal precipitation variability over the two regions may be dynamically linked. Indeed upper-tropospheric circulation anomalies over the central Andes extend across South America and appear to be tied to an adjustment in the Bolivian High-Nordeste Low system. Dry (wet) spells in NEB are equally associated with a large-scale pattern of positive (negative) OLR anomalies; however, there are no related significant OLR anomalies over the MB during these events. Dry (wet) spells are associated with robust patterns of anomalous wind fields at both low and upper

  5. Modeling nonstationary extreme wave heights in present and future climates of Greek Seas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Panagiota Galiatsatou

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study the generalized extreme value (GEV distribution function was used to assess nonstationarity in annual maximum wave heights for selected locations in the Greek Seas, both in the present and future climates. The available significant wave height data were divided into groups corresponding to the present period (1951–2000, a first future period (2001–2050, and a second future period (2051–2100. For each time period, the parameters of the GEV distribution were specified as functions of time-varying covariates and estimated using the conditional density network (CDN. For each location and selected time period, a total number of 29 linear and nonlinear models were fitted to the wave data, for a given combination of covariates. The covariates used in the GEV-CDN models consisted of wind fields resulting from the Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3 developed by the International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP with a spatial resolution of 10 km × 10 km, after being processed using principal component analysis (PCA. The results obtained from the best fitted models in the present and future periods for each location were compared, revealing different patterns of relationships between wind components and extreme wave height quantiles in different parts of the Greek Seas and different periods. The analysis demonstrates an increase of extreme wave heights in the first future period as compared with the present period, causing a significant threat to Greek coastal areas in the North Aegean Sea and the Ionian Sea.

  6. Extreme events in total ozone: Spatio-temporal analysis from local to global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rieder, Harald E.; Staehelin, Johannes; Maeder, Jörg A.; Ribatet, Mathieu; di Rocco, Stefania; Jancso, Leonhardt M.; Peter, Thomas; Davison, Anthony C.

    2010-05-01

    Recently tools from extreme value theory (e.g. Coles, 2001; Ribatet, 2007) have been applied for the first time in the field of stratospheric ozone research, as statistical analysis showed that previously used concepts assuming a Gaussian distribution (e.g. fixed deviations from mean values) of total ozone data do not address the internal data structure concerning extremes adequately (Rieder et al., 2010a,b). A case study the world's longest total ozone record (Arosa, Switzerland - for details see Staehelin et al., 1998a,b) illustrates that tools based on extreme value theory are appropriate to identify ozone extremes and to describe the tails of the total ozone record. Excursions in the frequency of extreme events reveal "fingerprints" of dynamical factors such as ENSO or NAO, and chemical factors, such as cold Arctic vortex ozone losses, as well as major volcanic eruptions of the 20th century (e.g. Gunung Agung, El Chichón, Mt. Pinatubo). Furthermore, atmospheric loading in ozone depleting substances led to a continuous modification of column ozone in the northern hemisphere also with respect to extreme values (partly again in connection with polar vortex contributions). It is shown that application of extreme value theory allows the identification of many more such fingerprints than conventional time series analysis of annual and seasonal mean values. Especially, the extremal analysis shows the strong influence of dynamics, revealing that even moderate ENSO and NAO events have a discernible effect on total ozone (Rieder et al., 2010b). Overall the extremes concept provides new information on time series properties, variability, trends and the influence of dynamics and chemistry, complementing earlier analyses focusing only on monthly (or annual) mean values. Findings described above could be proven also for the total ozone records of 5 other long-term series (Belsk, Hohenpeissenberg, Hradec Kralove, Potsdam, Uccle) showing that strong influence of atmospheric

  7. Identifying evidence of climate change impact on extreme events in permeable chalk catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, A. P.; Nubert, S.

    2009-12-01

    The permeable chalk catchments of southern England are vital for the economy and well being of the UK. Not only important as a water resource, their freely draining soils support intensive agricultural production, and the rolling downs and chalk streams provide important habitants for many protected plant and animal species. Consequently, there are concerns about the potential impact of climate change on such catchments, particularly in relation to groundwater recharge. Of major concern are possible changes in extreme events, such as groundwater floods and droughts, as any increase in the frequency and/or severity of these has important consequences for water resources, ecological systems and local infrastructure. Studies of climate change impact on extreme events for such catchments have indicated that, under medium and high emissions scenarios, droughts are likely to become more severe whilst floods less so. However, given the uncertainties in such predictions and the inherent variability in historic data, producing definitive evidence of changes in flood/drought frequency/severity poses a significant challenge. Thus, there is a need for specific extreme event statistics that can be used as indicators of actual climate change in streamflow and groundwater level observations. Identifying such indicators that are sufficiently robust requires catchments with long historic time series data. One such catchment is the River Lavant, an intermittent chalk stream in West Sussex, UK. Located within this catchment is Chilgrove House, the site of the UK’s longest groundwater monitoring well (with a continuous record of water level observations of varying frequency dating back to 1836). Using a variety of meteorological datasets, the behaviour of the catchment has been modelled, from 1855 to present, using a 'leaky aquifer' conceptual model. Model calibration was based on observed daily streamflow, at a gauging station just outside the town of Chichester, from 1970. Long

  8. Methods and Model Dependency of Extreme Event Attribution: The 2015 European Drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauser, Mathias; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Orth, René; Jézéquel, Aglaé; Haustein, Karsten; Vautard, Robert; van Oldenborgh, Geert J.; Wilcox, Laura; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2017-10-01

    Science on the role of anthropogenic influence on extreme weather events, such as heatwaves or droughts, has evolved rapidly in the past years. The approach of "event attribution" compares the occurrence-probability of an event in the present, factual climate with its probability in a hypothetical, counterfactual climate without human-induced climate change. Several methods can be used for event attribution, based on climate model simulations and observations, and usually researchers only assess a subset of methods and data sources. Here, we explore the role of methodological choices for the attribution of the 2015 meteorological summer drought in Europe. We present contradicting conclusions on the relevance of human influence as a function of the chosen data source and event attribution methodology. Assessments using the maximum number of models and counterfactual climates with pre-industrial greenhouse gas concentrations point to an enhanced drought risk in Europe. However, other evaluations show contradictory evidence. These results highlight the need for a multi-model and multi-method framework in event attribution research, especially for events with a low signal-to-noise ratio and high model dependency such as regional droughts.

  9. Nitrogen accumulation and partitioning in a High Arctic tundra ecosystem from extreme atmospheric N deposition events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choudhary, Sonal, E-mail: S.Choudhary@sheffield.ac.uk [Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western Bank, Sheffield S10 2TN (United Kingdom); Management School, University of Sheffield, Conduit Road, Sheffield S10 1FL (United Kingdom); Blaud, Aimeric [Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western Bank, Sheffield S10 2TN (United Kingdom); Osborn, A. Mark [Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western Bank, Sheffield S10 2TN (United Kingdom); School of Applied Sciences, RMIT University, PO Box 71, Bundoora, VIC 3083 (Australia); Press, Malcolm C. [School of Biosciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT (United Kingdom); Manchester Metropolitan University, Manchester, M15 6BH (United Kingdom); Phoenix, Gareth K. [Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western Bank, Sheffield S10 2TN (United Kingdom)

    2016-06-01

    Arctic ecosystems are threatened by pollution from recently detected extreme atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition events in which up to 90% of the annual N deposition can occur in just a few days. We undertook the first assessment of the fate of N from extreme deposition in High Arctic tundra and are presenting the results from the whole ecosystem {sup 15}N labelling experiment. In 2010, we simulated N depositions at rates of 0, 0.04, 0.4 and 1.2 g N m{sup −2} yr{sup −1}, applied as {sup 15}NH{sub 4}{sup 15}NO{sub 3} in Svalbard (79{sup °}N), during the summer. Separate applications of {sup 15}NO{sub 3}{sup −} and {sup 15}NH{sub 4}{sup +} were also made to determine the importance of N form in their retention. More than 95% of the total {sup 15}N applied was recovered after one growing season (~ 90% after two), demonstrating a considerable capacity of Arctic tundra to retain N from these deposition events. Important sinks for the deposited N, regardless of its application rate or form, were non-vascular plants > vascular plants > organic soil > litter > mineral soil, suggesting that non-vascular plants could be the primary component of this ecosystem to undergo measurable changes due to N enrichment from extreme deposition events. Substantial retention of N by soil microbial biomass (70% and 39% of {sup 15}N in organic and mineral horizon, respectively) during the initial partitioning demonstrated their capacity to act as effective buffers for N leaching. Between the two N forms, vascular plants (Salix polaris) in particular showed difference in their N recovery, incorporating four times greater {sup 15}NO{sub 3}{sup −} than {sup 15}NH{sub 4}{sup +}, suggesting deposition rich in nitrate will impact them more. Overall, these findings show that despite the deposition rates being extreme in statistical terms, biologically they do not exceed the capacity of tundra to sequester pollutant N during the growing season. Therefore, current and future extreme events

  10. Nitrogen accumulation and partitioning in a High Arctic tundra ecosystem from extreme atmospheric N deposition events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choudhary, Sonal; Blaud, Aimeric; Osborn, A. Mark; Press, Malcolm C.; Phoenix, Gareth K.

    2016-01-01

    Arctic ecosystems are threatened by pollution from recently detected extreme atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition events in which up to 90% of the annual N deposition can occur in just a few days. We undertook the first assessment of the fate of N from extreme deposition in High Arctic tundra and are presenting the results from the whole ecosystem "1"5N labelling experiment. In 2010, we simulated N depositions at rates of 0, 0.04, 0.4 and 1.2 g N m"−"2 yr"−"1, applied as "1"5NH_4"1"5NO_3 in Svalbard (79"°N), during the summer. Separate applications of "1"5NO_3"− and "1"5NH_4"+ were also made to determine the importance of N form in their retention. More than 95% of the total "1"5N applied was recovered after one growing season (~ 90% after two), demonstrating a considerable capacity of Arctic tundra to retain N from these deposition events. Important sinks for the deposited N, regardless of its application rate or form, were non-vascular plants > vascular plants > organic soil > litter > mineral soil, suggesting that non-vascular plants could be the primary component of this ecosystem to undergo measurable changes due to N enrichment from extreme deposition events. Substantial retention of N by soil microbial biomass (70% and 39% of "1"5N in organic and mineral horizon, respectively) during the initial partitioning demonstrated their capacity to act as effective buffers for N leaching. Between the two N forms, vascular plants (Salix polaris) in particular showed difference in their N recovery, incorporating four times greater "1"5NO_3"− than "1"5NH_4"+, suggesting deposition rich in nitrate will impact them more. Overall, these findings show that despite the deposition rates being extreme in statistical terms, biologically they do not exceed the capacity of tundra to sequester pollutant N during the growing season. Therefore, current and future extreme events may represent a major source of eutrophication. - Highlights: • High Arctic tundra demonstrated a

  11. Development of heat and drought related extreme weather events and their effect on winter wheat yields in Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lüttger, Andrea B.; Feike, Til

    2018-04-01

    Climate change constitutes a major challenge for high productivity in wheat, the most widely grown crop in Germany. Extreme weather events including dry spells and heat waves, which negatively affect wheat yields, are expected to aggravate in the future. It is crucial to improve the understanding of the spatiotemporal development of such extreme weather events and the respective crop-climate relationships in Germany. Thus, the present study is a first attempt to evaluate the historic development of relevant drought and heat-related extreme weather events from 1901 to 2010 on county level (NUTS-3) in Germany. Three simple drought indices and two simple heat stress indices were used in the analysis. A continuous increase in dry spells over time was observed over the investigated periods from 1901-1930, 1931-1960, 1961-1990 to 2001-2010. Short and medium dry spells, i.e., precipitation-free periods longer than 5 and 8 days, respectively, increased more strongly compared to longer dry spells (longer than 11 days). The heat-related stress indices with maximum temperatures above 25 and 28 °C during critical wheat growth phases showed no significant increase over the first three periods but an especially sharp increase in the final 1991-2010 period with the increases being particularly pronounced in parts of Southwestern Germany. Trend analysis over the entire 110-year period using Mann-Kendall test revealed a significant positive trend for all investigated indices except for heat stress above 25 °C during flowering period. The analysis of county-level yield data from 1981 to 2010 revealed declining spatial yield variability and rather constant temporal yield variability over the three investigated (1981-1990, 1991-2000, and 2001-2010) decades. A clear spatial gradient manifested over time with variability in the West being much smaller than in the east of Germany. Correlating yield variability with the previously analyzed extreme weather indices revealed strong

  12. Vegetation Cover and Furrow Erosion due to Extreme Rain Events in Semiarid Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belén Cárceles-Rodríguez

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The conservation of the soil resource in semi-arid environments is one of the major challenges of agricultural systems, particularly in the Mediterranean region. In the present study, two types of soil management were compared: minimum tillage (ML and minimum tillage with spontaneous vegetation cover (MLVE. The comparison was conducted in a rainfed almond plantation at slope (35%, under an extraordinary event in 2015 (91.3 mm and EI30 of 2,719.89 mm ha-1 h-1. In this situation in MLVE plots, the development of furrows in contrast to ML were not recorded; the total soil loss was more than 12 times lower than that recorded in the latter. This fact demonstrated the effectiveness of the vegetal cover in the protection of the agricultural soil against the erosion during extreme events. Also, for ML management, furrow erosion represented more than 60% of the total soil loss, demonstrating the dominance of this type of erosion. Finally, it should be noted that this event represents the almost total loss of soil recorded in the experimental plots during the period 2012-2015; and this consequently shows the significant impact of extreme events on erosion rates in the Mediterranean region.

  13. Spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and attribution of extreme regional low temperature event

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feng Tai-Chen; Zhang Ke-Quan; Wang Xiao-Juan; Zhang Wen-Yu; Su Hai-Jing; Gong Zhi-Qiang

    2015-01-01

    Based on an objective identification technique for regional low temperature event (OITRLTE), the daily minimum temperature in China has been detected from 1960 to 2013. During this period, there were 60 regional extreme low temperature events (ERLTEs), which are included in the 690 regional low temperature events (RLTEs). The 60 ERLTEs are analyzed in this paper. The results show that in the last 50 years, the intensity of the ERLTEs has become weak; the number of lasted days has decreased; and, the affected area has become small. However, that situation has changed in this century. In terms of spatial distribution, the high intensity regions are mainly in Northern China while the high frequency regions concentrate in Central and Eastern China. According to the affected area of each event, the 60 ERLTEs are classified into six types. The atmospheric circulation background fields which correspond to these types are also analyzed. The results show that, influenced by stronger blocking highs of Ural and Lake Baikal, as well as stronger southward polar vortex and East Asia major trough at 500-hPa geopotential height, cold air from high latitudes is guided to move southward and abnormal northerly winds at 850 hPa makes the cold air blow into China along diverse paths, thereby forming different types of regional extreme low temperatures in winter. (paper)

  14. Extreme weather events in developing countries and related injuries and mental health disorders - a systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisabeth Rataj

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Due to climate change, extreme weather events have an incremental impact on human health. Injuries and mental health disorders are a particular burden of disease, which is broadly investigated in high income countries. Most distressed populations are, however, those in developing countries. Therefore, this study investigates mental and physical health impacts arising from extreme weather events in these populations. Method Post-traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD, injury [primary outcomes], anxiety and depressive disorders [secondary outcomes], caused by weather extremes were systematically analyzed in people of developing countries. A systematic review of observational studies was conducted searching six databases, complemented by hand search, and utilizing two search engines. Review processing was done independently by two reviewers. Prevalence rates were analyzed in a pre/post design; an additional semi-structured search was conducted, to provide reference data for studies not incorporating reference values. Results All 17 identified studies (70,842 individuals indicate a disease increase, compared to the reference data. Increase ranges from 0.7–52.6 % for PTSD, and from 0.3–37.3 % for injury. No studies on droughts and heatwaves were identified. All studies were conducted in South America and Asia. Conclusion There is an increased burden of psychological diseases and injury. This finding needs to be incorporated into activities of prevention, preparedness and general health care of those developing countries increasingly experiencing extreme weather events. There is also a gap in research in Africa (in quantity and quality of studies in this field and a predominant heterogeneity of health assessment tools. PROSPERO registration no.: CRD42014009109

  15. Evaluating sub-seasonal skill in probabilistic forecasts of Atmospheric Rivers and associated extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subramanian, A. C.; Lavers, D.; Matsueda, M.; Shukla, S.; Cayan, D. R.; Ralph, M.

    2017-12-01

    Atmospheric rivers (ARs) - elongated plumes of intense moisture transport - are a primary source of hydrological extremes, water resources and impactful weather along the West Coast of North America and Europe. There is strong demand in the water management, societal infrastructure and humanitarian sectors for reliable sub-seasonal forecasts, particularly of extreme events, such as floods and droughts so that actions to mitigate disastrous impacts can be taken with sufficient lead-time. Many recent studies have shown that ARs in the Pacific and the Atlantic are modulated by large-scale modes of climate variability. Leveraging the improved understanding of how these large-scale climate modes modulate the ARs in these two basins, we use the state-of-the-art multi-model forecast systems such as the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) database to help inform and assess the probabilistic prediction of ARs and related extreme weather events over the North American and European West Coasts. We will present results from evaluating probabilistic forecasts of extreme precipitation and AR activity at the sub-seasonal scale. In particular, results from the comparison of two winters (2015-16 and 2016-17) will be shown, winters which defied canonical El Niño teleconnection patterns over North America and Europe. We further extend this study to analyze probabilistic forecast skill of AR events in these two basins and the variability in forecast skill during certain regimes of large-scale climate modes.

  16. Regional decision-makers as potential users of Extreme Weather Event Attribution - Case studies from the German Baltic Sea coast and the Greater Paris area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Schwab

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Extreme Event Attribution has raised increasing attention in climate science in the last years. It means to judge the extent to which certain weather-related extreme events have changed due to human influences on climate with probabilistic statements. Extreme Event Attribution is often anticipated to spur more than just scientific ambition. It is able to provide answers to a commonly asked questions after extreme events, namely, ‘can we blame it on climate change’ and is assumed to support decision-making of various actors engaged in climate change mitigation and adaptation. More in-depth research is widely lacking about who these actors are; in which context they can make use of it; and what requirements they have, to be able to actually apply Extreme Event Attribution. We have therefore addressed these questions with two empirical case studies looking at regional decision-makers who deal with storm surge risks in the German Baltic Sea region and heat waves in the Greater Paris area. Stakeholder interviews and workshops reveal that fields of application and requirements are diverse, difficult to explicitly identify, and often clearly associated with stakeholders' specific mandate, the hazard background, and the regional socio-economic setting. Among the considered stakeholders in the Baltic Sea region, Extreme Event Attribution is perceived to be most useful to awareness-raising, in particular for climate change mitigation. They emphasised the importance of receiving understandable information - and that, rather later, but with smaller uncertainties than faster, but with higher uncertainties. In the Paris case, we typically talked to people engaged in adaptation with expertise in terms of climate science, but narrowly defined mandates which is typical for the Paris-centred political system with highly specialised public experts. The interviewees claimed that Extreme Event Attribution is most useful to political leverage and public

  17. A laboratory evaluation of the influence of weighing gauges performance on extreme events statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colli, Matteo; Lanza, Luca

    2014-05-01

    The effects of inaccurate ground based rainfall measurements on the information derived from rain records is yet not much documented in the literature. La Barbera et al. (2002) investigated the propagation of the systematic mechanic errors of tipping bucket type rain gauges (TBR) into the most common statistics of rainfall extremes, e.g. in the assessment of the return period T (or the related non-exceedance probability) of short-duration/high intensity events. Colli et al. (2012) and Lanza et al. (2012) extended the analysis to a 22-years long precipitation data set obtained from a virtual weighing type gauge (WG). The artificial WG time series was obtained basing on real precipitation data measured at the meteo-station of the University of Genova and modelling the weighing gauge output as a linear dynamic system. This approximation was previously validated with dedicated laboratory experiments and is based on the evidence that the accuracy of WG measurements under real world/time varying rainfall conditions is mainly affected by the dynamic response of the gauge (as revealed during the last WMO Field Intercomparison of Rainfall Intensity Gauges). The investigation is now completed by analyzing actual measurements performed by two common weighing gauges, the OTT Pluvio2 load-cell gauge and the GEONOR T-200 vibrating-wire gauge, since both these instruments demonstrated very good performance under previous constant flow rate calibration efforts. A laboratory dynamic rainfall generation system has been arranged and validated in order to simulate a number of precipitation events with variable reference intensities. Such artificial events were generated basing on real world rainfall intensity (RI) records obtained from the meteo-station of the University of Genova so that the statistical structure of the time series is preserved. The influence of the WG RI measurements accuracy on the associated extreme events statistics is analyzed by comparing the original intensity

  18. Assessment of flood Response Characteristics to Urbanization and extreme flood events-Typhoons at Cheongju, Chungbuk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, HyungJoon; Lee, Hyosang; Hwang, Myunggyu; Jang, Sukhwan

    2016-04-01

    The changes of land use influence on the flood characteristics, which depend on rainfall runoff procedures in the catchment. This study assesses the changes of flood characteristics due to land use changes between 1997 and 2012. The catchment model (HEC-HMS) is calibrated with flood events of 1990's and 2000's respectively, then the design rainfall of 100, 200, 500year return period are applied to this model, which represent the catchment in 1990's and 2000's, to assess the flood peaks. Then the extreme flood events (i.e., 6 typhoon events) are applied to assess the flood responses. The results of comparison between 1990's and 2000's show that the flood peak and level of 2000's are increasing and time to peak of 2000's is decreasing comparing to those of 1990's :3% to 78% increase in flood peak, 3% in flood level and 10.2% to 16% decrease in time to peak in 100year return period flood. It is due to decreasing of the farmland area (2.18%), mountainous area (8.88%), and increasing of the urbanization of the area (5.86%). This study also estimates the responses to extreme flood events. The results of 2000's show that the increasing of the flood peak and time to peak comparing to 1990's. It indicates that the extreme rainfall is more responsible at unurbanized catchment ( 2000's), which resulting with a 11% increasing of the peak volume. Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant (11-TI-C06) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

  19. Mitigation Efforts in Rural Communities after Extreme Weather Events - New Insights for Stakeholders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vesela Radovic

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Global climate changes are undoubtedly course of the increasing frequency of extreme whether events all over the world. Rural communities belong to the “group of victims” which is greatly jeopardized by consequences of the extreme weather events. Having in mind limited capacities for the preparedness, response and recovery after any kind of emergency it is clear that the rural community mostly needs external help. That is the point of this paper: to make new insights about this important issue, and to discuss: “how to provide adequate help in the rural communities and build adequate adaptive and response capacities”. In many countries agriculture and rural tourism are main economic activities in the rural area and its interruption could be the obstacle for implementation of sustainable development. Various stakeholders omit to be aware of this issue. Emergency agencies and many others have to make the comprehensive plan for rural communities (having in mind all its limitations. In the Republic of Serbia rural communities do not have enough capacity for recovery and usually it takes many years after an event. A minimum of an economic recovery standard has to be created for the rural community. It also has to be a specific contingency plan in the future reorganizations of emergency services in Serbia and at the Western Balkan region. It should be one of the priority issues for stakeholders in the near future in disaster risk reduction. Providing equal access to resources to population in the rural community after the extreme weather event has to be the priority task for policy makers and all actors in emergency management.

  20. The Impact of a Barrier Island Loss on Extreme Events in the Tampa Bay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marius eUlm

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Barrier islands characterize up to an eighth of the global coastlines. They buffer the mainland coastal areas from storm surge and wave energy from the open ocean. Changes in their shape or disappearance due to erosion may lead to an increased impact of sea level extremes on the mainland. A barrier island threatened by erosion is Egmont Key which is located in the mouth of the Tampa Bay estuary at the west-central coast of Florida.In this sensitivity study we investigate the impact a loss of Egmont Key would have on storm surge water levels and wind waves along the coastline of Tampa Bay. We first simulate still water levels in a control run over the years 1948-2010 using present-day bathymetry and then in a scenario run covering the same period with identical boundary conditions but with Egmont Key removed from the bathymetry. Return water levels are assessed for the control and the scenario runs using the Peak-over-threshold method along the entire Tampa Bay coastline. Egmont Key is found to have a significant influence on the return water levels in the Bay, especially in the northern, furthest inland parts where water levels associated with the 100-year return period increase between 5 cm and 15 cm.Additionally, wind wave simulations considering all 99.5th percentile threshold exceedances in the years 1980-2013 were conducted with the same control and scenario bathymetries. Assessing changes in return levels of significant wave heights due to the loss of Egmont Key revealed an increase of significant wave heights around today's location of the island.

  1. Extreme fluxes in solar energetic particle events: Methodological and physical limitations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miroshnichenko, L.I.; Nymmik, R.A.

    2014-01-01

    In this study, all available data on the largest solar proton events (SPEs), or extreme solar energetic particle (SEP) events, for the period from 1561 up to now are analyzed. Under consideration are the observational, methodological and physical problems of energy-spectrum presentation for SEP fluxes (fluences) near the Earth's orbit. Special attention is paid to the study of the distribution function for extreme fluences of SEPs by their sizes. The authors present advances in at least three aspects: 1) a form of the distribution function that was previously obtained from the data for three cycles of solar activity has been completely confirmed by the data for 41 solar cycles; 2) early estimates of extremely large fluences in the past have been critically revised, and their values were found to be overestimated; and 3) extremely large SEP fluxes are shown to obey a probabilistic distribution, so the concept of an “upper limit flux” does not carry any strict physical sense although it serves as an important empirical restriction. SEP fluxes may only be characterized by the relative probabilities of their appearance, and there is a sharp break in the spectrum in the range of large fluences (or low probabilities). It is emphasized that modern observational data and methods of investigation do not allow, for the present, the precise resolution of the problem of the spectrum break or the estimation of the maximum potentialities of solar accelerator(s). This limitation considerably restricts the extrapolation of the obtained results to the past and future for application to the epochs with different levels of solar activity. - Highlights: • All available data on the largest solar proton events (SPEs) are analyzed. • Distribution function obtained for 3 last cycles is confirmed for 41 solar cycles. • Estimates of extremely large fluences in the past are found to be overestimated. • Extremely large SEP fluxes are shown to obey a probabilistic distribution.

  2. The relative contribution of waves, tides, and nontidal residuals to extreme total water levels on U.S. West Coast sandy beaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serafin, Katherine A.; Ruggiero, Peter; Stockdon, Hilary F.

    2017-01-01

    To better understand how individual processes combine to cause flooding and erosion events, we investigate the relative contribution of tides, waves, and nontidal residuals to extreme total water levels (TWLs) at the shoreline of U.S. West Coast sandy beaches. Extreme TWLs, defined as the observed annual maximum event and the simulated 100 year return level event, peak in Washington, and are on average larger in Washington and Oregon than in California. The relative contribution of wave-induced and still water levels (SWL) to the 100 year TWL event is similar to that of the annual maximum event; however, the contribution of storm surge to the SWL doubles across events. Understanding the regional variability of TWLs will lead to a better understanding of how sea level rise, changes in storminess, and possible changes in the frequency of major El Niños may impact future coastal flooding and erosion along the U.S. West Coast and elsewhere.

  3. Vegetation response to extreme climate events on the Mongolian Plateau from 2000 to 2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    John, Ranjeet; Chen Jiquan; Ouyang Zutao; Becker, Richard; Xiao Jingfeng; Samanta, Arindam; Ganguly, Sangram; Yuan Wenping; Batkhishig, Ochirbat

    2013-01-01

    Climate change has led to more frequent extreme winters (aka, dzud) and summer droughts on the Mongolian Plateau during the last decade. Among these events, the 2000–2002 combined summer drought–dzud and 2010 dzud were the most severe on vegetation. We examined the vegetation response to these extremes through the past decade across the Mongolian Plateau as compared to decadal means. We first assessed the severity and extent of drought using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation data and the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI). We then examined the effects of drought by mapping anomalies in vegetation indices (EVI, EVI2) and land surface temperature derived from MODIS and AVHRR for the period of 2000–2010. We found that the standardized anomalies of vegetation indices exhibited positively skewed frequency distributions in dry years, which were more common for the desert biome than for grasslands. For the desert biome, the dry years (2000–2001, 2005 and 2009) were characterized by negative anomalies with peak values between −1.5 and −0.5 and were statistically different (P 2 = 65 and 60, p 2 = 53, p < 0.05). Our results showed significant differences in the responses to extreme climatic events (summer drought and dzud) between the desert and grassland biomes on the Plateau. (letter)

  4. The Chennai extreme rainfall event in 2015: The Bay of Bengal connection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyaj, Alugula; Ashok, Karumuri; Ghosh, Subimal; Devanand, Anjana; Dandu, Govardhan

    2018-04-01

    Southeast India experienced a heavy rainfall during 30 Nov-2 Dec 2015. Particularly, the Chennai city, the fourth major metropolitan city in India with a population of 5 million, experienced extreme flooding and causalities. Using various observed/reanalysed datasets, we find that the concurrent southern Bay of Bengal (BoB) sea surface temperatures (SST) were anomalously warm. Our analysis shows that BoB sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) are indeed positively, and significantly, correlated with the northeastern Indian monsoonal rainfall during this season. Our sensitivity experiments carried out with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 25 km resolution suggest that, while the strong concurrent El Niño conditions contributed to about 21.5% of the intensity of the extreme Chennai rainfall through its signals in the local SST mentioned above, the warming trend in BoB SST also contributed equally to the extremity of the event. Further, the El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) impacts on the intensity of the synoptic events in the BoB during the northeast monsoon are manifested largely through the local SST in the BoB as compared through its signature in the atmospheric circulations over the BoB.

  5. The role of extreme drought events in modelling the distribution of beech at its xeric limit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasztovits, Ervin; Berki, Imre; Eredics, Attila; Móricz, Norbert

    2014-05-01

    Context: Projections of species distribution models (SDMs) for future climate conditions are based on long term mean climate data. For management and conservation issues SDMs have been extensively used, but it is not tested whether models that are successful in predicting current distributions are equally powerful in predicting distributions under future climates. Methods: Observations after 2003 confirms that extreme drought events played an important role in driving beech mortality at low-elevation xeric limits. The objective of this study was (1) to set up a simple extreme drought event based vitality model (EDM) using sanitary logging information as a proxy of vitality response of beech and (2) to compare the spatial pattern of the predicted vitality loss provided by the EDM with the distribution limits of the SDMs for three terms (2025, 2050 and 2100) in Hungary to assess model performance. Results: Prediction for vitality loss for 2025 obtained from the EDM was in agreement with those of the SDM, but for the end of the century the EDM predicted a more serious decline in almost all regions of Hungary. Conclusion: The result of the comparison suggests that the increasing frequency and severity of extremes might play a more important role in limiting the distribution of beech in the future near to the xeric limit than long-term means.

  6. SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE 2012 JULY 23 EXTREME SOLAR STORM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhu, Bei; Liu, Ying D.; Hu, Huidong; Wang, Rui; Yang, Zhongwei [State Key Laboratory of Space Weather, National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Luhmann, Janet G., E-mail: liuxying@spaceweather.ac.cn [Space Sciences Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States)

    2016-08-20

    We study the solar energetic particle (SEP) event associated with the 2012 July 23 extreme solar storm, for which Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) and the spacecraft at L1 provide multi-point remote sensing and in situ observations. The extreme solar storm, with a superfast shock and extremely enhanced ejecta magnetic fields observed near 1 au at STEREO A , was caused by the combination of successive coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Meanwhile, energetic particles were observed by STEREO and near-Earth spacecraft such as the Advanced Composition Explorer and SOlar and Heliospheric Observatory , suggesting a wide longitudinal spread of the particles at 1 au. Combining the SEP observations with in situ plasma and magnetic field measurements, we investigate the longitudinal distribution of the SEP event in connection with the associated shock and CMEs. Our results underscore the complex magnetic configuration of the inner heliosphere formed by solar eruptions. Examination of particle intensities, proton anisotropy distributions, element abundance ratios, magnetic connectivity, and spectra also gives important clues for particle acceleration, transport, and distribution.

  7. Combining geomorphic and documentary flood evidence to reconstruct extreme events in Mediterranean basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorndycraft, V. R.; Benito, G.; Barriendos, M.; Rico, M.; Sánchez-Moya, Y.; Sopeña, A.; Casas, A.

    2009-09-01

    Palaeoflood hydrology is the reconstruction of flood magnitude and frequency using geomorphological flood evidence and is particularly valuable for extending the record of extreme floods prior to the availability of instrumental data series. This paper will provide a review of recent developments in palaeoflood hydrology and will be presented in three parts: 1) an overview of the key methodological approaches used in palaeoflood hydrology and the use of historical documentary evidence for reconstructing extreme events; 2) a summary of the Llobregat River palaeoflood case study (Catalonia, NE Spain); and 3) analysis of the AD 1617 flood and its impacts across Catalonia (including the rivers Llobregat, Ter and Segre). The key findings of the Llobregat case study were that at least eight floods occurred with discharges significantly larger than events recorded in the instrumental record, for example at the Pont de Vilomara study reach the palaeodischarges of these events were 3700-4300 m3/s compared to the 1971 flood, the largest on record, of 2300 m3/s. Five of these floods were dated to the last 3000 years and the three events directly dated by radiocarbon all occurred during cold phases of global climate. Comparison of the palaeoflood record with documentary evidence indicated that one flood, radiocarbon dated to cal. AD 1540-1670, was likely to be the AD 1617 event, the largest flood of the last 700 years. Historical records indicate that this event was caused by rainfall occurring from the 2nd to 6th November and the resultant flooding caused widespread socio-economic impacts including the destruction of at least 389 houses, 22 bridges and 17 water mills. Discharges estimated from palaeoflood records and historical flood marks indicate that the Llobregat (4680 m3/s) and Ter (2700-4500 m3/s) rivers witnessed extreme discharges in comparison to observed floods in the instrumental record (2300 and 2350 m3/s, respectively); whilst further east in the Segre River

  8. Stochastic generation of multi-site daily precipitation focusing on extreme events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Evin

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Many multi-site stochastic models have been proposed for the generation of daily precipitation, but they generally focus on the reproduction of low to high precipitation amounts at the stations concerned. This paper proposes significant extensions to the multi-site daily precipitation model introduced by Wilks, with the aim of reproducing the statistical features of extremely rare events (in terms of frequency and magnitude at different temporal and spatial scales. In particular, the first extended version integrates heavy-tailed distributions, spatial tail dependence, and temporal dependence in order to obtain a robust and appropriate representation of the most extreme precipitation fields. A second version enhances the first version using a disaggregation method. The performance of these models is compared at different temporal and spatial scales on a large region covering approximately half of Switzerland. While daily extremes are adequately reproduced at the stations by all models, including the benchmark Wilks version, extreme precipitation amounts at larger temporal scales (e.g., 3-day amounts are clearly underestimated when temporal dependence is ignored.

  9. Extreme meteorological events in nuclear power plant siting, excluding tropical cyclones

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1981-01-01

    This Safety Guide deals with the extremes of meteorological variables and the extreme meteorological phenomena in accordance with the general criteria of the Code. The Guide outlines a procedure based on the following steps: (1) The meteorological phenomena and variables are described and classified, according to their effects on safety. (2) Data sources are identified, and data are collected. (3) Meteorological variables such as air temperature are analysed to determine their design bases; and the design basis event in case of phenomena such as the design basis tornado is identified. (4) As appropriate, the design basis value for the variable, or the design basis for the phenomena (such as pressure drop and maximum wind speed of the design basis tornado), is defined. In the following sections, the general procedure for evaluating the design bases of extreme meteorological variables and phenomena is outlined. The procedure is then presented in detail for each variable or phenomenon considered. The variables characterizing the meteorological environment dealt with in this Guide are wind speed, atmospheric precipitation, and temperature. The extreme meteorological phenomena discussed here are the tornado and, briefly, the tropical cyclone, which is discussed more extensively in the Safety Guide on Design Basis Tropical Cyclone for Nuclear Power Plants (IAEA Safety Series No. 50-SG-S11B)

  10. Extreme external events in the design and assessment of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-03-01

    The analysis of feedback experience from the operation of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the past 20 years shows few cases of degradation of the plant safety initiated by external events. However, when these have occurred, the consequences have been serious, involving challenges to the defence in depth of the plant. Part of the problem involves the definition of the design basis parameters for some scenarios and differences among regulators on the methods for the protection of operational NPPs in relation to external events. This results in different engineering practices in Member States for the siting and design of NPPs. In the framework of the present revision of the IAEA safety standards on siting and design of NPPs, many initiatives have been implemented by the IAEA in recent years aimed at a systematic analysis of engineering practices in Member States. The most recent event in this connection was a Technical Committee Meeting (TCM) on Structural Safety of NPPs in Relation to Extreme External Loads, organized with the specific objective of evaluating the state of the art of NPP design in relation to external events. Such an analysis provided a technical background for the development of a common technical basis for an integrated approach in site evaluation, design and operation in relation to extreme external events. The scope included new and existing plants, as they are required to meet the same general safety principles, in spite of their peculiarities. The objective of this publication is to provide a technical background to drive regulators, plant owners and designers in the definition of a consistent strategy in selected safety issues on site evaluation, design and operation in relation to extreme external events. This publication is also of support to the IAEA in the development of safety standards since many Safety Guides dealing with related topics are under periodic review. Four major tasks were identified to comply with these general objectives

  11. The differential effects of increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme events on coral populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabina, Nicholas S; Baskett, Marissa L; Gross, Kevin

    2015-09-01

    Extreme events, which have profound ecological consequences, are changing in both frequency and magnitude with climate change. Because extreme temperatures induce coral bleaching, we can explore the relative impacts of changes in frequency and magnitude of high temperature events on coral reefs. Here, we combined climate projections and a dynamic population model to determine how changing bleaching regimes influence coral persistence. We additionally explored how coral traits and competition with macroalgae mediate changes in bleaching regimes. Our results predict that severe bleaching events reduce coral persistence more than frequent bleaching. Corals with low adult mortality and high growth rates are successful when bleaching is mild, but bleaching resistance is necessary to persist when bleaching is severe, regardless of frequency. The existence of macroalgae-dominated stable states reduces coral persistence and changes the relative importance of coral traits. Building on previous studies, our results predict that management efforts may need to prioritize protection of "weaker" corals with high adult mortality when bleaching is mild, and protection of "stronger" corals with high bleaching resistance when bleaching is severe. In summary, future reef projections and conservation targets depend on both local bleaching regimes and biodiversity.

  12. Necessary and sufficient conditions for big bangs, bounces, crunches, rips, sudden singularities and extremality events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cattoen, Celine; Visser, Matt

    2005-01-01

    Until recently, the physically relevant singularities occurring in FRW cosmologies had traditionally been thought to be limited to the 'big bang', and possibly a 'big crunch'. However, over the last few years, the zoo of cosmological singularities considered in the literature has become considerably more extensive, with 'big rips' and 'sudden singularities' added to the mix, as well as renewed interest in nonsingular cosmological events such as 'bounces' and 'turnarounds'. In this paper we present an extensive catalogue of such cosmological milestones, both at the kinematical and dynamical level. First, using generalized power series, purely kinematical definitions of these cosmological events are provided in terms of the behaviour of the scale factor a(t). The notion of a 'scale-factor singularity' is defined, and its relation to curvature singularities (polynomial and differential) is explored. Second, dynamical information is extracted by using the Friedmann equations (without assuming even the existence of any equation of state) to place constraints on whether or not the classical energy conditions are satisfied at the cosmological milestones. We use these considerations to derive necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of cosmological milestones such as bangs, bounces, crunches, rips, sudden singularities and extremality events. Since the classification is extremely general and, modulo certain technical assumptions, is complete, the corresponding results are to a high degree model independent: in particular, we provide a characterization of the class of bangs, crunches and sudden singularities for which the dominant energy condition is satisfied

  13. Quantifying the Influence of Global Warming on Unprecedented Extreme Climate Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Singh, Deepti; Mankin, Justin S.; Horton, Daniel E.; Swain, Daniel L.; Touma, Danielle; Charland, Allison; Liu, Yunjie; Haugen, Matz; Tsiang, Michael; hide

    2017-01-01

    Efforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global warming on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find extremely high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent.

  14. Extremely high wall-shear stress events in a turbulent boundary layer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Chong; Kwon, Yongseok

    2018-04-01

    The present work studies the fluctuating characteristics of the streamwise wall-shear stress in a DNS of a turbulent boundary layer at Re τ =1500 from a structural view. The two-dimensional field of the fluctuating friction velocity u‧ τ (x,z) is decomposed into the large- and small-scale components via a recently proposed scale separation algorithm, Quasi-bivariate Variational Mode Decomposition (QB-VMD). Both components are found to be dominated by streak-like structures, which can be regarded as the wall signature of the inner-layer streaks and the outer-layer LSMs, respectively. Extreme positive/negative wall-shear stress fluctuation events are detected in the large-scale component. The former’s occurrence frequency is nearly one order of magnitude higher than the latter; therefore, they contribute a significant portion of the long tail of the wall-shear stress distribution. Both two-point correlations and conditional averages show that these extreme positive wall-shear stress events are embedded in the large-scale positive u‧ τ streaks. They seem to be formed by near-wall ‘splatting’ process, which are related to strong finger-like sweeping (Q4) events originated from the outer-layer positive LSMs.

  15. Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Singh, Deepti; Mankin, Justin S; Horton, Daniel E; Swain, Daniel L; Touma, Danielle; Charland, Allison; Liu, Yunjie; Haugen, Matz; Tsiang, Michael; Rajaratnam, Bala

    2017-05-09

    Efforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global warming on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find extremely high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent.

  16. Preface: Impacts of extreme climate events and disturbances on carbon dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Jingfeng; Liu, Shuguang; Stoy, Paul C.

    2016-01-01

    The impacts of extreme climate events and disturbances (ECE&D) on the carbon cycle have received growing attention in recent years. This special issue showcases a collection of recent advances in understanding the impacts of ECE&D on carbon cycling. Notable advances include quantifying how harvesting activities impact forest structure, carbon pool dynamics, and recovery processes; observed drastic increases of the concentrations of dissolved organic carbon and dissolved methane in thermokarst lakes in western Siberia during a summer warming event; disentangling the roles of herbivores and fire on forest carbon dioxide flux; direct and indirect impacts of fire on the global carbon balance; and improved atmospheric inversion of regional carbon sources and sinks by incorporating disturbances. Combined, studies herein indicate several major research needs. First, disturbances and extreme events can interact with one another, and it is important to understand their overall impacts and also disentangle their effects on the carbon cycle. Second, current ecosystem models are not skillful enough to correctly simulate the underlying processes and impacts of ECE&D (e.g., tree mortality and carbon consequences). Third, benchmark data characterizing the timing, location, type, and magnitude of disturbances must be systematically created to improve our ability to quantify carbon dynamics over large areas. Finally, improving the representation of ECE&D in regional climate/earth system models and accounting for the resulting feedbacks to climate are essential for understanding the interactions between climate and ecosystem dynamics.

  17. Conjugate observations of electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves associated with traveling convection vortex events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hyomin; Clauer, C. Robert; Gerrard, Andrew J.; Engebretson, Mark J.; Hartinger, Michael D.; Lessard, Marc R.; Matzka, Jürgen; Sibeck, David G.; Singer, Howard J.; Stolle, Claudia; Weimer, Daniel R.; Xu, Zhonghua

    2017-07-01

    We report on simultaneous observations of electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves associated with traveling convection vortex (TCV) events caused by transient solar wind dynamic pressure (Pd) impulse events. The Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS) spacecraft located near the magnetopause observed radial fluctuations of the magnetopause, and the GOES spacecraft measured sudden compressions of the magnetosphere in response to sudden increases in Pd. During the transient events, EMIC waves were observed by interhemispheric conjugate ground-based magnetometer arrays as well as the GOES spacecraft. The spectral structures of the waves appear to be well correlated with the fluctuating motion of the magnetopause, showing compression-associated wave generation. In addition, the wave features are remarkably similar in conjugate hemispheres in terms of bandwidth, quasiperiodic wave power modulation, and polarization. Proton precipitation was also observed by the DMSP spacecraft during the wave events, from which the wave source region is estimated to be 72°-74° in magnetic latitude, consistent with the TCV center. The confluence of space-borne and ground instruments including the interhemispheric, high-latitude, fluxgate/induction coil magnetometer array allows us to constrain the EMIC source region while also confirming the relationship between EMIC waves and the TCV current system.

  18. Extreme precipitation events in the Iberian Peninsula and its association with Atmospheric Rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, Alexandre M.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Trigo, Ricardo M.

    2015-04-01

    Extreme precipitation events in the Iberian Peninsula during the winter half of the year have major socio-economic impacts associated with floods, landslides, extensive property damage and life losses. In recent years, a number of works have shed new light on the role played by Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) in the occurrence of extreme precipitation events in both Europe and USA. ARs are relatively narrow regions of concentrated WV responsible for horizontal transport in the lower atmosphere corresponding to the core section of the broader warm conveyor belt occurring over the oceans along the warm sector of extra-tropical cyclones. Over the North Atlantic ARs are usually W-E oriented steered by pre-frontal low level jets along the trailing cold front and subsequently feed the precipitation in the extra-tropical cyclones. It was shown that more than 90% of the meridional WV transport in the mid-latitudes occurs in the AR, although they cover less than 10% of the area of the globe. The large amount of WV that is transported can lead to heavy precipitation and floods. An automated ARs detection algorithm is used for the North Atlantic Ocean Basin allowing the identification and a comprehensive characterization of the major AR events that affected the Iberian Peninsula over the 1948-2012 period. The extreme precipitation days in the Iberian Peninsula were assessed recently by us (Ramos et al., 2014) and their association (or not) with the occurrence of AR is analyzed in detail here. The extreme precipitation days are ranked by their magnitude and are obtained after considering 1) the area affected and 2) the precipitation intensity. Different rankings are presented for the entire Iberian Peninsula, Portugal and also for the six largest Iberian river basins (Minho, Duero, Tagus, Guadiana, Guadalquivir and Ebro) covering the 1950-2008 period (Ramos et al., 2014). Results show that the association between ARs and extreme precipitation days in the western domains (Portugal

  19. Production of narrowband tunable extreme-ultraviolet radiation by noncollinear resonance-enhanced four-wave mixing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hannemann, S.; Hollenstein, U.; van Duijn, E.J.; Ubachs, W.M.G.

    2005-01-01

    Fourier-transform-limited extreme-ultraviolet (XUV) radiation (bandwidth ≲300 MHz) tunable around 91 nm is produced by use of two-photon resonance-enhanced four-wave mixing on the Kr resonance at 94 093 cm

  20. Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vautard, Robert; Christidis, Nikolaos; Ciavarella, Andrew; Alvarez-Castro, Carmen; Bellprat, Omar; Christiansen, Bo; Colfescu, Ioana; Cowan, Tim; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Eden, Jonathan; Hauser, Mathias; Hegerl, Gabriele; Hempelmann, Nils; Klehmet, Katharina; Lott, Fraser; Nangini, Cathy; Orth, René; Radanovics, Sabine; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Stott, Peter; Tett, Simon; Wilcox, Laura; Yiou, Pascal

    2018-04-01

    A detailed analysis is carried out to assess the HadGEM3-A global atmospheric model skill in simulating extreme temperatures, precipitation and storm surges in Europe in the view of their attribution to human influence. The analysis is performed based on an ensemble of 15 atmospheric simulations forced with observed sea surface temperature of the 54 year period 1960-2013. These simulations, together with dual simulations without human influence in the forcing, are intended to be used in weather and climate event attribution. The analysis investigates the main processes leading to extreme events, including atmospheric circulation patterns, their links with temperature extremes, land-atmosphere and troposphere-stratosphere interactions. It also compares observed and simulated variability, trends and generalized extreme value theory parameters for temperature and precipitation. One of the most striking findings is the ability of the model to capture North-Atlantic atmospheric weather regimes as obtained from a cluster analysis of sea level pressure fields. The model also reproduces the main observed weather patterns responsible for temperature and precipitation extreme events. However, biases are found in many physical processes. Slightly excessive drying may be the cause of an overestimated summer interannual variability and too intense heat waves, especially in central/northern Europe. However, this does not seem to hinder proper simulation of summer temperature trends. Cold extremes appear well simulated, as well as the underlying blocking frequency and stratosphere-troposphere interactions. Extreme precipitation amounts are overestimated and too variable. The atmospheric conditions leading to storm surges were also examined in the Baltics region. There, simulated weather conditions appear not to be leading to strong enough storm surges, but winds were found in very good agreement with reanalyses. The performance in reproducing atmospheric weather patterns

  1. Tambora and the mackerel year: phenology and fisheries during an extreme climate event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, Karen E.; Leavenworth, William B.; Hall, Carolyn; Mattocks, Steven; Bittner, Steven M.; Klein, Emily; Staudinger, Michelle D.; Bryan, Alexander; Rosset, Julianne; Willis, Theodore V.; Carr, Benjamin H.; Jordaan, Adrian

    2017-01-01

    Global warming has increased the frequency of extreme climate events, yet responses of biological and human communities are poorly understood, particularly for aquatic ecosystems and fisheries. Retrospective analysis of known outcomes may provide insights into the nature of adaptations and trajectory of subsequent conditions. We consider the 1815 eruption of the Indonesian volcano Tambora and its impact on Gulf of Maine (GoM) coastal and riparian fisheries in 1816. Applying complex adaptive systems theory with historical methods, we analyzed fish export data and contemporary climate records to disclose human and piscine responses to Tambora’s extreme weather at different spatial and temporal scales while also considering sociopolitical influences. Results identified a tipping point in GoM fisheries induced by concatenating social and biological responses to extreme weather. Abnormal daily temperatures selectively affected targeted fish species—alewives, shad, herring, and mackerel—according to their migration and spawning phenologies and temperature tolerances. First to arrive, alewives suffered the worst. Crop failure and incipient famine intensified fishing pressure, especially in heavily settled regions where dams already compromised watersheds. Insufficient alewife runs led fishers to target mackerel, the next species appearing in abundance along the coast; thus, 1816 became the “mackerel year.” Critically, the shift from riparian to marine fisheries persisted and expanded after temperatures moderated and alewives recovered. We conclude that contingent human adaptations to extraordinary weather permanently altered this complex system. Understanding how adaptive responses to extreme events can trigger unintended consequences may advance long-term planning for resilience in an uncertain future.

  2. Modernizing Distribution System Restoration to Achieve Grid Resiliency Against Extreme Weather Events: An Integrated Solution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Chen; Wang, Jianhui; Ton, Dan

    2017-07-07

    Recent severe power outages caused by extreme weather hazards have highlighted the importance and urgency of improving the resilience of the electric power grid. As the distribution grids still remain vulnerable to natural disasters, the power industry has focused on methods of restoring distribution systems after disasters in an effective and quick manner. The current distribution system restoration practice for utilities is mainly based on predetermined priorities and tends to be inefficient and suboptimal, and the lack of situational awareness after the hazard significantly delays the restoration process. As a result, customers may experience an extended blackout, which causes large economic loss. On the other hand, the emerging advanced devices and technologies enabled through grid modernization efforts have the potential to improve the distribution system restoration strategy. However, utilizing these resources to aid the utilities in better distribution system restoration decision-making in response to extreme weather events is a challenging task. Therefore, this paper proposes an integrated solution: a distribution system restoration decision support tool designed by leveraging resources developed for grid modernization. We first review the current distribution restoration practice and discuss why it is inadequate in response to extreme weather events. Then we describe how the grid modernization efforts could benefit distribution system restoration, and we propose an integrated solution in the form of a decision support tool to achieve the goal. The advantages of the solution include improving situational awareness of the system damage status and facilitating survivability for customers. The paper provides a comprehensive review of how the existing methodologies in the literature could be leveraged to achieve the key advantages. The benefits of the developed system restoration decision support tool include the optimal and efficient allocation of repair crews

  3. Impacts of extreme events of drought and flood on local communities of Amazon basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borma, L. D.; Roballo, S.; Zauner, M.; Nascimento, V. F.

    2013-05-01

    The analysis of drought events of 1997/98, 2005 and 2010 in terms of discharge anomalies in the Amazon region confirmed previous findings, such as: a) the influence of the El Niño in more than one hydrological year; b) the increase of the influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation of 1998, 2005 and 2010 drought events; c) the low levels of discharge observed in the 2010 drought are attributed to the association of discharge anomalies of the northern and southern tributaries of the Amazon river, and d) the 2010 drought lasted around 1 month (August to November) more than the other drought events analized here. The riverine communities located along the river banks of Solimões/Amazonas suit their economic activities to the oscillation of the water level. In general, low water periods favor the access to important sources of food such as fish and livestock, still allowing crop cultivation on fertile agricultural areas of the floodplain. Conversely, periods of drought increases the difficulties of transport and drinking water supply. During the high water, access to the main food supply (described above) are greatly hampered. However, the floods are recognized as an importance process of natural fertilization. Thus, despite the political, social and economic shortcomings, the local community has, since the pre-colonial period, learned to get the best of each season, providing local, regional and national markets with varzea products. During periods of extreme weather, however, the advantages of each season appear to be reduced, and the drawbacks increased. In fact, during flooding extremes, the access to primary sources of food is hampered by a long period of time and families find themselves forced to leave their homes, eventually losing them. Analysis of flow data to the extreme flooding of 2009, indicate a period of about 6 months of positive anomalies discharge (occurring mainly during high water). At the same time, Civil Defense data points to a

  4. Systematic survey for monitor signals to reduce fake burst events in a gravitational-wave detector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishidoshiro, Koji; Ando, Masaki; Tsubono, Kimio

    2006-01-01

    We present methods and results to reduce fake burst events induced by nonstationary noises. To reduce these fake events, we systematically surveyed monitor signals recorded with a main (or gravitational-wave) signal of a gravitational-wave detector so as to watch the detector. Our survey was to check whether or not there was a coincidence between the main and monitor signals when we found a burst event from the main signal. If there was a coincidence, we rejected this event as a fake event induced by nonstationary noises, regarding the main signal as being dominated by nonstationary noises. As a result, we succeeded to reject about 90% of the burst events of which the SNR values were larger than 10 as fake events, with an accidental probability of about 5% to reject burst-gravitational-wave candidates

  5. Intensity changes in future extreme precipitation: A statistical event-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manola, Iris; van den Hurk, Bart; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

    2017-04-01

    Short-lived precipitation extremes are often responsible for hazards in urban and rural environments with economic and environmental consequences. The precipitation intensity is expected to increase about 7% per degree of warming, according to the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. However, the observations often show a much stronger increase in the sub-daily values. In particular, the behavior of the hourly summer precipitation from radar observations with the dew point temperature (the Pi-Td relation) for the Netherlands suggests that for moderate to warm days the intensification of the precipitation can be even higher than 21% per degree of warming, that is 3 times higher than the expected CC relation. The rate of change depends on the initial precipitation intensity, as low percentiles increase with a rate below CC, the medium percentiles with 2CC and the moderate-high and high percentiles with 3CC. This non-linear statistical Pi-Td relation is suggested to be used as a delta-transformation to project how a historic extreme precipitation event would intensify under future, warmer conditions. Here, the Pi-Td relation is applied over a selected historic extreme precipitation event to 'up-scale' its intensity to warmer conditions. Additionally, the selected historic event is simulated in the high-resolution, convective-permitting weather model Harmonie. The initial and boundary conditions are alternated to represent future conditions. The comparison between the statistical and the numerical method of projecting the historic event to future conditions showed comparable intensity changes, which depending on the initial percentile intensity, range from below CC to a 3CC rate of change per degree of warming. The model tends to overestimate the future intensities for the low- and the very high percentiles and the clouds are somewhat displaced, due to small wind and convection changes. The total spatial cloud coverage in the model remains, as also in the statistical

  6. Observations of neutral winds, wind shears, and wave structure during a sporadic-E/QP event

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. F. Larsen

    2005-10-01

    Full Text Available The second Sporadic E Experiment over Kyushu (SEEK-2 was carried out on 3 August 2002, during an active sporadic-E event that also showed quasi-periodic (QP echoes. Two rockets were launched into the event from Kagoshima Space Center in southern Japan 15 min apart. Both carried a suite of instruments, but the second rocket also released a trimethyl aluminum (TMA trail to measure the neutral winds and turbulence structure. In a number of earlier measurements in similar conditions, large winds and shears that were either unstable or close to instability were observed in the altitude range where the ionization layer occurred. The SEEK-2 wind measurements showed similar vertical structure, but unlike earlier experiments, there was a significant difference between the up-leg and down-leg wind profiles. In addition, wave or billow-like fluctuations were evident in the up-leg portion of the trail, while the lower portion of the down-leg trail was found to have extremely strong turbulence that led to a rapid break-up of the trail. The large east-west gradient in the winds and the strong turbulence have not been observed before. The wind profiles and shears, as well as the qualitative characteristics of the strong turbulence are presented, along with a discussion of the implications of the dynamical features. Keywords. Ionosphere (Mid-latitude ionosphere; Ionospheric irregularities; Electric field and currents

  7. Extreme events and predictability of catastrophic failure in composite materials and in the Earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Main, I.; Naylor, M.

    2012-05-01

    Despite all attempts to isolate and predict extreme earthquakes, these nearly always occur without obvious warning in real time: fully deterministic earthquake prediction is very much a `black swan'. On the other hand engineering-scale samples of rocks and other composite materials often show clear precursors to dynamic failure under controlled conditions in the laboratory, and successful evacuations have occurred before several volcanic eruptions. This may be because extreme earthquakes are not statistically special, being an emergent property of the process of dynamic rupture. Nevertheless, probabilistic forecasting of event rate above a given size, based on the tendency of earthquakes to cluster in space and time, can have significant skill compared to say random failure, even in real-time mode. We address several questions in this debate, using examples from the Earth (earthquakes, volcanoes) and the laboratory, including the following. How can we identify `characteristic' events, i.e. beyond the power law, in model selection (do dragon-kings exist)? How do we discriminate quantitatively between stationary and non-stationary hazard models (is a dragon likely to come soon)? Does the system size (the size of the dragon's domain) matter? Are there localising signals of imminent catastrophic failure we may not be able to access (is the dragon effectively invisible on approach)? We focus on the effect of sampling effects and statistical uncertainty in the identification of extreme events and their predictability, and highlight the strong influence of scaling in space and time as an outstanding issue to be addressed by quantitative studies, experimentation and models.

  8. Daily precipitation extreme events for the Iberian Peninsula and its association with Atmospheric Rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, Alexandre M.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Liberato, Margarida LR

    2014-05-01

    Extreme precipitation events in the Iberian Peninsula during the extended winter months have major socio-economic impacts such as floods, landslides, extensive property damage and life losses. These events are usually associated with low pressure systems with Atlantic origin, although some extreme events in summer/autumn months can be linked to Mediterranean low pressure systems. Quite often these events are evaluated on a casuistic base and making use of data from relatively few stations. An objective method for ranking daily precipitation events is presented here based on the extensive use of the most comprehensive database of daily gridded precipitation available for the Iberian Peninsula (IB02) and spanning from 1950 to 2008, with a resolution of 0.2° (approximately 16 x 22 km at latitude 40°N), for a total of 1673 pixels. This database is based on a dense network of rain gauges, combining two national data sets, 'Spain02' for peninsular Spain and Balearic islands, and 'PT02' for mainland Portugal, with a total of more than two thousand stations over Spain and four hundred stations over Portugal, all quality-controlled and homogenized. Through this objective method for ranking daily precipitation events the magnitude of an event is obtained after considering the area affected as well as its intensity in every grid point and taking into account the daily precipitation normalised departure from climatology. Different precipitation rankings are presented considering the entire Iberian Peninsula, Portugal and also the six largest river basins in the Iberian Peninsula. Atmospheric Rivers (AR) are the water vapour (WV) core section of the broader warm conveyor belt occurring over the oceans along the warm sector of extra-tropical cyclones. They are usually W-E oriented steered by pre-frontal low level jets along the trailing cold front and subsequently feed the precipitation in the extra-tropical cyclones. They are relatively narrow regions of concentrated WV

  9. OCCURRENCE OF EXTREME SOLAR PARTICLE EVENTS: ASSESSMENT FROM HISTORICAL PROXY DATA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Usoskin, Ilya G. [Sodankylae Geophysical Observatory (Oulu unit) and Department of Physical Sciences, University of Oulu, FIN-90014 Oulu (Finland); Kovaltsov, Gennady A., E-mail: ilya.usoskin@oulu.fi [Ioffe Physical-Technical Institute of RAS, 194021 St. Petersburg (Russian Federation)

    2012-09-20

    The probability of occurrence of extreme solar particle events (SPEs) with proton fluence (>30 MeV) F{sub 30} {>=} 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} is evaluated based on data on the cosmogenic isotopes {sup 14}C and {sup 10}Be in terrestrial archives covering centennial-millennial timescales. Four potential candidates with F{sub 30} = (1-1.5) Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} and no events with F{sub 30} > 2 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} are identified since 1400 AD in the annually resolved {sup 10}Be data. A strong SPE related to the Carrington flare of 1859 AD is not supported by the data. For the last 11,400 years, 19 SPE candidates with F{sub 30} = (1-3) Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} are found and clearly no event with F{sub 30} > 5 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} (50 times the SPE of 1956 February 23) has occurred. These values serve as observational upper limits on the strength of SPEs on the timescale of tens of millennia. Two events, ca. 780 and 1460 AD, appear in different data series making them strong candidates for extreme SPEs. We build a distribution of the occurrence probability of extreme SPEs, providing a new strict observational constraint. Practical limits can be set as F{sub 30} Almost-Equal-To 1, 2-3, and 5 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} for occurrence probabilities Almost-Equal-To 10{sup -2}, 10{sup -3}, and 10{sup -4} yr{sup -1}, respectively. Because of the uncertainties, our results should be interpreted as a conservative upper limit on the SPE occurrence near Earth. The mean solar energetic particle (SEP) flux is evaluated as Almost-Equal-To 40 (cm{sup 2} s){sup -1}, in agreement with estimates from lunar rocks. On average, extreme SPEs contribute about 10% to the total SEP fluence.

  10. Cosmic rays Monte Carlo simulations for the Extreme Energy Events Project

    CERN Document Server

    Abbrescia, M; Aiola, S; Antolini, R; Avanzini, C; Baldini Ferroli, R; Bencivenni, G; Bossini, E; Bressan, E; Chiavassa, A; Cicalò, C; Cifarelli, L; Coccia, E; De Gruttola, D; De Pasquale, S; Di Giovanni, A; D'Incecco, M; Dreucci, M; Fabbri, F L; Frolov, V; Garbini, M; Gemme, G; Gnesi, I; Gustavino, C; Hatzifotiadou, D; La Rocca, P; Li, S; Librizzi, F; Maggiora, A; Massai, M; Miozzi, S; Panareo, M; Paoletti, R; Perasso, L; Pilo, F; Piragino, G; Regano, A; Riggi, F; Righini, G C; Sartorelli, G; Scapparone, E; Scribano, A; Selvi, M; Serci, S; Siddi, E; Spandre, G; Squarcia, S; Taiuti, M; Tosello, F; Votano, L; Williams, M C S; Yánez, G; Zichichi, A; Zuyeuski, R

    2014-01-01

    The Extreme Energy Events Project (EEE Project) is an innovative experiment to study very high energy cosmic rays by means of the detection of the associated air shower muon component. It consists of a network of tracking detectors installed inside Italian High Schools. Each tracking detector, called EEE telescope, is composed of three Multigap Resistive Plate Chambers (MRPCs). At present, 43 telescopes are installed and taking data, opening the way for the detection of far away coincidences over a total area of about 3 × 10 5 km 2 . In this paper we present the Monte Carlo simulations that have been performed to predict the expected coincidence rate between distant EEE telescopes.

  11. The impact of extreme flooding events and anthropogenic stressors on the macrobenthic communities’ dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardoso, P. G.; Raffaelli, D.; Lillebø, A. I.; Verdelhos, T.; Pardal, M. A.

    2008-02-01

    Marine and coastal environments are among the most ecologically and socio-economically important habitats on Earth. However, climate change associated with a variety of anthropogenic stressors (e.g. eutrophication) may interact to produce combined impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, which in turn will have profound implications for marine ecosystems and the economic and social systems that depend upon them. Over period 1980-2000, the environment of the Mondego estuary, Portugal, has deteriorated through eutrophication, manifested in the replacement of seagrasses by opportunistic macroalgae, degradation of water quality and increased turbidity, and the system has also experienced extreme flood events. A restoration plan was implemented in 1998 which aimed to reverse the eutrophication effects, especially to restore the original natural seagrass ( Zostera noltii) community. This paper explores the interactions between extreme weather events (e.g. intense floods) and anthropogenic stressors (e.g. eutrophication) on the dynamics of the macrobenthic assemblages and the socio-economic implications that follow. We found that during the previous decade, the intensification of extreme flooding events had significant effects on the structure and functioning of macrobenthic communities, specifically a decline in total biomass, a decline in species richness and a decline in suspension feeders. However, the earlier eutrophication process also strongly modified the macrobenthic community, seen as a decline in species richness, increase in detritivores and a decline in herbivores together with a significant increase in small deposit-feeding polychaetes. After the implementation of the management plan, macrobenthic assemblages seemed to be recovering from eutrophication, but it is argued here that those earlier impacts reduced system stability and the resilience of the macrobenthic assemblages, so that its ability to cope with other stressors was compromised. Thus

  12. Two centuries of extreme events over the Baltic Sea and North Sea regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stendel, Martin; den Besselaar Else, van; Abdel, Hannachi; Jaak, Jaagus; Elizabeth, Kent; Christiana, Lefebvre; Gudrun, Rosenhagen; Anna, Rutgersson; Frederik, Schenk; der Schrier Gerard, van; Tim, Woolings

    2017-04-01

    Two centuries of extreme events over the Baltic Sea and North Sea regions In the framework of the BACC 2 (for the Baltic Sea) and NOSCCA projects (for the North Sea region), studies of past and present variability and changes in atmospheric variables within the North Sea region over the instrumental period (roughly the past 200 years) have been investigated. Findings on trends in temperature and precipitation have already been presented. Here we focus on data homogeneity issues and examine how reliable reanalyses are in this context. Unlike most other regions in the world, there is a wealth of old observations available for the Baltic and North Sea regions, most of it in handwritten form in meteorological journals and other publications. These datasets need to be carefully digitised and homogenized. For this, a thorough quality control must be applied; otherwise the digitised datasets may prove useless or even counterproductive. We present evidence that this step cannot be conducted without human interference and thus cannot be fully automated. Furthermore, inhomogeneities due to e.g. instrumentation and station relocations need to be addressed. A wealth of reanalysis products is available, which can help detect such inhomogeneities in observed time series, but at the same time are prone to biases and/or spurious trends themselves e.g. introduced by changes in the availability and quality of the underlying assimilated data. It therefore in general remains unclear in how far we can simulate the pre-satellite era with respect to homogeneity with reanalyses based only on parts of the observing system. Extreme events and changes in extreme situations are more important and of greater (societal) significance than changes in mean climate. However, changes in extreme weather events are difficult to assess not only because they are, per definition, rare events, but also due to the homogeneity issues outlined above. Taking these into account, we present evidence for changes

  13. Historical extreme wave and landslide deposits on the Shirasuka coastal lowlands, Shizuoka Prefecture, Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrett, Ed; Riedesel, Svenja; Fujiwara, Osamu; Walstra, Jan; Deforce, Koen; Yokoyama, Yusuke; Schmidt, Sabine; Brill, Dominik; Roberts, Helen; Duller, Geoff; Brückner, Hulmut; De Batist, Marc; Heyvaert, Vanessa

    2017-04-01

    Future megathrust earthquakes and consequential tsunamis pose exceptional hazards to densely populated and highly industrialised coastlines facing the Nankai-Suruga Trough, south central Japan. Geological investigations of coastal sedimentary sequences play a key role in understanding megathrust behaviour and developing seismic and tsunami hazard assessments. In this study, we revisit a previously published palaeoseismic site at Shirasuka, located on the Enshu-nada coastline of Shizuoka Prefecture, seeking both to provide further information on past earthquakes and tsunamis and to explore the prospects and limitations of geological data with respect to assessing seismic and tsunami hazards. At Shirasuka, six closely-spaced vibrocores reveal four sand layers interbedded with organic muds. Photographs, X-ray CT scans and grain size analysis reveal a variety of sedimentary structures within these layers, including abrupt contacts, massive sands, rip-up clasts, internal mud drapes and cross bedding. Microfossil assemblages (diatoms, pollen, non-pollen palynomorphs) and optically stimulated luminescence overdispersion values of single grain feldspars highlight varying sediment sources and transport mechanisms. We suggest that the uppermost sand layer records a landslide from the landward margin of the site, while the remaining three sand layers reflect at least four extreme wave events, some of which are overprinted. We refine the published chronology using AMS radiocarbon, radionuclide and infrared stimulated luminescence approaches. Our Bayesian age models suggest that the oldest two sand layers relate to historically documented tsunamis in AD 1361 and 1498. The second youngest sand layer provides ages consistent with tsunamis in AD 1605 and 1707 and potentially also storm surges in 1680 and/or 1699. The modelled age of the landslide sand layer is consistent with the AD 1944 earthquake. The presence of a fresh scarp in US military aerial photographs from 1947 and

  14. Extreme gravity tests with gravitational waves from compact binary coalescences: (II) ringdown

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berti, Emanuele; Yagi, Kent; Yang, Huan; Yunes, Nicolás

    2018-05-01

    The LIGO/Virgo detections of binary black hole mergers marked a watershed moment in astronomy, ushering in the era of precision tests of Kerr dynamics. We review theoretical and experimental challenges that must be overcome to carry out black hole spectroscopy with present and future gravitational wave detectors. Among other topics, we discuss quasinormal mode excitation in binary mergers, astrophysical event rates, tests of black hole dynamics in modified theories of gravity, parameterized "post-Kerr" ringdown tests, exotic compact objects, and proposed data analysis methods to improve spectroscopic tests of Kerr dynamics by stacking multiple events.

  15. High resolution modelling of the extreme precipitation event over Algiers in November 2001

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Moore

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Between 18:00UTC on Friday 9th November and 12:00UTC on Saturday 10th November 2001 260mm of rainfall was recorded at Bouzareah, compared to the November average of just 96mm. This extreme rainfall resulted in landslides and flooding, causing immense damage to the Bab-el-Oued district of Algiers and affected the lives of more than 2000 people. In this paper, key results from a modelling study of this event using the UK Met Office Unified Model at global (60km, regional (20km and national (4km horizontal resolutions are described. In general, it is found that the event could be well forecast with increases in resolution leading to better predictions of both the distribution and intensity of the rainfall. The role of the local orography and latent heating are also discussed.

  16. A study of upward going particles with the Extreme Energy Events telescopes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abbrescia, M. [Museo Storico della Fisica e Centro Studi e Ricerche E. Fermi, Roma (Italy); INFN and Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Bari, Bari (Italy); Avanzini, C.; Baldini, L. [Museo Storico della Fisica e Centro Studi e Ricerche E. Fermi, Roma (Italy); INFN and Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Pisa, Pisa (Italy); Ferroli, R. Baldini [Museo Storico della Fisica e Centro Studi e Ricerche E. Fermi, Roma (Italy); INFN Laboratori Nazionali di Frascati, Frascati (RM) (Italy); Batignani, G. [Museo Storico della Fisica e Centro Studi e Ricerche E. Fermi, Roma (Italy); INFN and Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Pisa, Pisa (Italy); Bencivenni, G. [INFN Laboratori Nazionali di Frascati, Frascati (RM) (Italy); Bossini, E. [Museo Storico della Fisica e Centro Studi e Ricerche E. Fermi, Roma (Italy); INFN Gruppo Collegato di Siena and Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Siena, Siena (Italy); Chiavassa, A. [INFN and Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Torino, Torino (Italy); Cicalo, C. [Museo Storico della Fisica e Centro Studi e Ricerche E. Fermi, Roma (Italy); INFN and Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Cagliari, Cagliari (Italy); Cifarelli, L. [Museo Storico della Fisica e Centro Studi e Ricerche E. Fermi, Roma (Italy); INFN and Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Bologna, Bologna (Italy); Coccia, E. [INFN and Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Roma Tor Vergata, Roma (Italy); Corvaglia, A. [Museo Storico della Fisica e Centro Studi e Ricerche E. Fermi, Roma (Italy); INFN and Dipartimento di Matematica e Fisica, Università del Salento, Lecce (Italy); and others

    2016-04-21

    In this paper the first study of the upward going events detected by the telescopes of the Extreme Energy Event (EEE) project is reported. The EEE project consists of a detector array of Multigap Resistive Plate Chambers located at selected sites on the Italian territory. During autumn 2014 the first coordinated data taking period took place and around one billion candidate tracks were collected. Among them, of particular interest is the sample of particles which cross the telescopes from below. The results obtained demonstrate that the EEE telescopes can distinguish the electrons produced as decay products of cosmic muons stopped in the ground, or in the last chamber of the telescopes themselves, confirming the excellent performance of the system for the investigation of intriguing cosmic phenomena.

  17. Temperature sensitivity of extreme precipitation events in the south-eastern Alpine forelands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeer, Katharina; Kirchengast, Gottfried

    2016-04-01

    How will convective precipitation intensities and patterns evolve in a warming climate on a regional to local scale? Studies on the scaling of precipitation intensities with temperature are used to test observational and climate model data against the hypothesis that the change of precipitation with temperature will essentially follow the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) equation, which corresponds to a rate of increase of the water holding capacity of the atmosphere by 6-7 % per Kelvin (CC rate). A growing number of studies in various regions and with varying approaches suggests that the overall picture of the temperature-precipitation relationship is heterogeneous, with scaling rates shearing off the CC rate in both upward and downward directions. In this study we investigate the temperature scaling of extreme precipitation events in the south-eastern Alpine forelands of Austria (SEA) based on a dense rain gauge net of 188 stations, with sub-daily precipitation measurements since about 1990 used at 10-min resolution. Parts of the study region are European hot-spots for severe hailstorms and the region, which is in part densely populated and intensively cultivated, is generally vulnerable to climate extremes. Evidence on historical extremely heavy short-time and localized precipitation events of several hundred mm of rain in just a few hours, resulting in destructive flash flooding, underline these vulnerabilities. Heavy precipitation is driven by Mediterranean moisture advection, enhanced by the orographic lifting at the Alpine foothills, and hence trends in positive sea surface temperature anomalies might carry significant risk of amplifying future extreme precipitation events. In addition, observations from the highly instrumented subregion of south-eastern Styria indicate a strong and robust long-term warming trend in summer of about 0.7°C per decade over 1971-2015, concomitant with a significant increase in the annual number of heat days. The combination of these

  18. CrossRef A study of upward going particles with the Extreme Energy Events telescopes

    CERN Document Server

    Abbrescia, M; Baldini, L; Ferroli, R Baldini; Batignani, G; Bencivenni, G; Bossini, E; Chiavassa, A; Cicalo, C; Cifarelli, L; Coccia, E; Corvaglia, A; De Gruttola, D; De Pasquale, S; Di Giovanni, A; D׳Incecco, M; Dreucci, M; Fabbri, F L; Fattibene, E; Ferraro, A; Forster, R; Frolov, V; Galeotti, P; Garbini, M; Gemme, G; Gnesi, I; Grazzi, S; Gustavino, C; Hatzifotiadu, D; La Rocca, P; Maggiora, A; Maron, G; Mazziotta, M N; Miozzi, S; Nania, R; Noferini, F; Nozzoli, F; Panareo, M; Panetta, M P; Paoletti, R; Perasso, L; Pilo, F; Piragino, G; Riggi, F; Righini, G C; Rodriguez, A R; Sartorelli, G; Scapparone, E; Schioppa, M; Scribano, A; Selvi, M; Serci, S; Siddi, E; Squarcia, S; Stori, L; Taiuti, M; Terreni, G; Vistoli, M C; Votano, L; Williams, M C S; Zani, S; Zichichi, A; Zuyeuski, R

    2016-01-01

    In this paper the first study of the upward going events detected by the telescopes of the Extreme Energy Event (EEE) project is reported. The EEE project consists of a detector array of Multigap Resistive Plate Chambers located at selected sites on the Italian territory. During autumn 2014 the first coordinated data taking period took place and around one billion candidate tracks were collected. Among them, of particular interest is the sample of particles which cross the telescopes from below. The results obtained demonstrate that the EEE telescopes can distinguish the electrons produced as decay products of cosmic muons stopped in the ground, or in the last chamber of the telescopes themselves, confirming the excellent performance of the system for the investigation of intriguing cosmic phenomena.

  19. Extreme flood event analysis in Indonesia based on rainfall intensity and recharge capacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narulita, Ida; Ningrum, Widya

    2018-02-01

    Indonesia is very vulnerable to flood disaster because it has high rainfall events throughout the year. Flood is categorized as the most important hazard disaster because it is causing social, economic and human losses. The purpose of this study is to analyze extreme flood event based on satellite rainfall dataset to understand the rainfall characteristic (rainfall intensity, rainfall pattern, etc.) that happened before flood disaster in the area for monsoonal, equatorial and local rainfall types. Recharge capacity will be analyzed using land cover and soil distribution. The data used in this study are CHIRPS rainfall satellite data on 0.05 ° spatial resolution and daily temporal resolution, and GSMap satellite rainfall dataset operated by JAXA on 1-hour temporal resolution and 0.1 ° spatial resolution, land use and soil distribution map for recharge capacity analysis. The rainfall characteristic before flooding, and recharge capacity analysis are expected to become the important information for flood mitigation in Indonesia.

  20. A study of upward going particles with the Extreme Energy Events telescopes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abbrescia, M.; Avanzini, C.; Baldini, L.; Ferroli, R. Baldini; Batignani, G.; Bencivenni, G.; Bossini, E.; Chiavassa, A.; Cicalo, C.; Cifarelli, L.; Coccia, E.; Corvaglia, A.

    2016-01-01

    In this paper the first study of the upward going events detected by the telescopes of the Extreme Energy Event (EEE) project is reported. The EEE project consists of a detector array of Multigap Resistive Plate Chambers located at selected sites on the Italian territory. During autumn 2014 the first coordinated data taking period took place and around one billion candidate tracks were collected. Among them, of particular interest is the sample of particles which cross the telescopes from below. The results obtained demonstrate that the EEE telescopes can distinguish the electrons produced as decay products of cosmic muons stopped in the ground, or in the last chamber of the telescopes themselves, confirming the excellent performance of the system for the investigation of intriguing cosmic phenomena.

  1. Public health and climate change. The example of extreme weather events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pascal, M.; Pirard, P.; Medina, S.; Viso, A.C.; Caserio-Schonemann, C.; Beaudeau, P.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change may be considered as a key factor for environmental change, exposure to health risks and pathogens, consequently impairing the state of health among populations. Health surveillance Systems can be used 1) to trigger early warning Systems, 2) to create databases which improve scientific knowledge about the health impacts of climate change, 3) to identify and prioritize needs for intervention and adaptation measures, and 4) to evaluate these measures. InVS proposed a method to identify possible health risks and to assess the needs for strengthened health surveillance Systems, taking into account environment, individual and social behaviors, demography and health state. Extreme climate events are illustrated here. These events have short, medium and long term impacts that could be reduced through efficient prevention. To better understand these impacts and orientate prevention, interdisciplinary studies will be needed. (authors)

  2. Assessment of future extreme climate events over the Porto wine Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viceto, Carolina; Cardoso, Susana; Marta-Almeida, Martinho; Gorodetskaya, Irina; Rocha, Alfredo

    2017-04-01

    to be produced (Porto and Douro wine), while climate variability affects the annual productivity and quality of the grape harvest. Our study investigates changes in the extreme climate events in the future model runs, through a set of climate change indicators defined by the WRCP's Expert Team in Climate Change Detection and Indices, which uses variables such as daily maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation amounts. Furthermore, we explore heat waves and their properties (duration, intensity and recovery factor). The analysis shows an increase of the mean temperature in the DDR higher than 2°C by the mid-21st century and 4.5°C by the end of the century, relatively to the reference period. Moreover, we found a major predisposition towards higher values of minimum and maximum daily temperatures and a decrease in the total precipitation during both future periods. These preliminary results indicate increased climatic stress on the DDR wine production and increased vulnerability of the wine varieties in this region.

  3. Probing Extreme-density Matter with Gravitational-wave Observations of Binary Neutron Star Merger Remnants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Radice, David [Institute for Advanced Study, 1 Einstein Drive, Princeton, NJ 08540 (United States); Bernuzzi, Sebastiano [Department of Mathematical, Physical and Computer Sciences, University of Parma, I-43124 Parma (Italy); Pozzo, Walter Del [Dipartimento di Fisica “Enrico Fermi,” Università di Pisa, Pisa I-56127 (Italy); Roberts, Luke F. [NSCL/FRIB and Department of Physics and Astronomy, Michigan State University, 640 S Shaw Lane, East Lansing, MI 48824 (United States); Ott, Christian D. [TAPIR, Walter Burke Institute for Theoretical Physics, California Institute of Technology, 1200 E. California Boulevard, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States)

    2017-06-20

    We present a proof-of-concept study, based on numerical-relativity simulations, of how gravitational waves (GWs) from neutron star merger remnants can probe the nature of matter at extreme densities. Phase transitions and extra degrees of freedom can emerge at densities beyond those reached during the inspiral, and typically result in a softening of the equation of state (EOS). We show that such physical effects change the qualitative dynamics of the remnant evolution, but they are not identifiable as a signature in the GW frequency, with the exception of possible black hole formation effects. The EOS softening is, instead, encoded in the GW luminosity and phase and is in principle detectable up to distances of the order of several megaparsecs with advanced detectors and up to hundreds of megaparsecs with third-generation detectors. Probing extreme-density matter will require going beyond the current paradigm and developing a more holistic strategy for modeling and analyzing postmerger GW signals.

  4. Probing Extreme-density Matter with Gravitational-wave Observations of Binary Neutron Star Merger Remnants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radice, David; Bernuzzi, Sebastiano; Pozzo, Walter Del; Roberts, Luke F.; Ott, Christian D.

    2017-01-01

    We present a proof-of-concept study, based on numerical-relativity simulations, of how gravitational waves (GWs) from neutron star merger remnants can probe the nature of matter at extreme densities. Phase transitions and extra degrees of freedom can emerge at densities beyond those reached during the inspiral, and typically result in a softening of the equation of state (EOS). We show that such physical effects change the qualitative dynamics of the remnant evolution, but they are not identifiable as a signature in the GW frequency, with the exception of possible black hole formation effects. The EOS softening is, instead, encoded in the GW luminosity and phase and is in principle detectable up to distances of the order of several megaparsecs with advanced detectors and up to hundreds of megaparsecs with third-generation detectors. Probing extreme-density matter will require going beyond the current paradigm and developing a more holistic strategy for modeling and analyzing postmerger GW signals.

  5. Spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and attribution of extreme regional low temperature event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Tai-Chen; Zhang, Ke-Quan; Su, Hai-Jing; Wang, Xiao-Juan; Gong, Zhi-Qiang; Zhang, Wen-Yu

    2015-10-01

    Based on an objective identification technique for regional low temperature event (OITRLTE), the daily minimum temperature in China has been detected from 1960 to 2013. During this period, there were 60 regional extreme low temperature events (ERLTEs), which are included in the 690 regional low temperature events (RLTEs). The 60 ERLTEs are analyzed in this paper. The results show that in the last 50 years, the intensity of the ERLTEs has become weak; the number of lasted days has decreased; and, the affected area has become small. However, that situation has changed in this century. In terms of spatial distribution, the high intensity regions are mainly in Northern China while the high frequency regions concentrate in Central and Eastern China. According to the affected area of each event, the 60 ERLTEs are classified into six types. The atmospheric circulation background fields which correspond to these types are also analyzed. The results show that, influenced by stronger blocking highs of Ural and Lake Baikal, as well as stronger southward polar vortex and East Asia major trough at 500-hPa geopotential height, cold air from high latitudes is guided to move southward and abnormal northerly winds at 850 hPa makes the cold air blow into China along diverse paths, thereby forming different types of regional extreme low temperatures in winter. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41305075), the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant Nos. 2012CB955203 and 2012CB955902), and the Special Scientific Research on Public Welfare Industry, China (Grant No. GYHY201306049).

  6. Flood-risk mapping: contributions towards an enhanced assessment of extreme events and associated risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Büchele

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Currently, a shift from classical flood protection as engineering task towards integrated flood risk management concepts can be observed. In this context, a more consequent consideration of extreme events which exceed the design event of flood protection structures and failure scenarios such as dike breaches have to be investigated. Therefore, this study aims to enhance existing methods for hazard and risk assessment for extreme events and is divided into three parts. In the first part, a regionalization approach for flood peak discharges was further developed and substantiated, especially regarding recurrence intervals of 200 to 10 000 years and a large number of small ungauged catchments. Model comparisons show that more confidence in such flood estimates for ungauged areas and very long recurrence intervals may be given as implied by statistical analysis alone. The hydraulic simulation in the second part is oriented towards hazard mapping and risk analyses covering the whole spectrum of relevant flood events. As the hydrodynamic simulation is directly coupled with a GIS, the results can be easily processed as local inundation depths for spatial risk analyses. For this, a new GIS-based software tool was developed, being presented in the third part, which enables estimations of the direct flood damage to single buildings or areas based on different established stage-damage functions. Furthermore, a new multifactorial approach for damage estimation is presented, aiming at the improvement of damage estimation on local scale by considering factors like building quality, contamination and precautionary measures. The methods and results from this study form the base for comprehensive risk analyses and flood management strategies.

  7. Impacts of severe wave event to the coastal environment, east Taiwan: a case study of 2015 Typhoon Soudelor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Shao-Yi; Yen, Jiun-Yee; Wu, Bo-Lin; Kao, Yu-Hsuan; Chang, Ting-Yi

    2017-04-01

    As an island surrounded by open water bodies, Taiwan faces associated challenges of oceanic events such as tidal, current and seasonsal wave cycles. In addition to the secular variations of the adjacent oceans, researchers have raised public awareness toward extreme wave events such as tsunamis and storm surges that may cause great damage to coastal infrastructures and loss of valuable lives. The east coast of Taiwan is prone to suffer from typhoons every year and records have shown that more than 30% of the low-pressure centers took the east coastline as their landing point. In year 2015, Typhoon Soudelor attacked the east coast of Taiwan and resulted in a great number of casualties and severe damage to the infrastructures all over the island. Soudelor is not the greatest typhoon of the year yet still brought in significant influences to the coastal topography due to its path and robust structure. In order to understand the impacts of typhoons like Soudelor, we investigated the coastal areas of Hualien, east Taiwan, to document how sediments and debris are transported along the shoreline under the extreme wave condition. Four coastal areas were surveyed to extract applicable information such as local relief profiles, grain size distribution of drifted sediments/debris, maximum inundation limit and so forth. Field observation suggests that the waves displayed great capability of transporting the sediments and redistributing the beach morphology. For instance, the beach of Qixing Lake (Chishingtan) has astonishing records like maximum volume of transported boulder around 3,000,000 cm3, maximum long axis of transported boulder around 144 cm, maximum distance of boulder transportation of 70 m, and maximum inundation distance of ca. 180 m. The composition and distribution of the drifted sediments in every areas vary with local geological conditions but in general all suggest similar characteristics: 1. the transported materials size down toward inland; 2. The sediments

  8. Wind and wave extremes over the world oceans from very large ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breivik, Øyvind; Aarnes, Ole Johan; Abdalla, Saleh; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond; Janssen, Peter A. E. M.

    2014-07-01

    Global return values of marine wind speed and significant wave height are estimated from very large aggregates of archived ensemble forecasts at +240 h lead time. Long lead time ensures that the forecasts represent independent draws from the model climate. Compared with ERA-Interim, a reanalysis, the ensemble yields higher return estimates for both wind speed and significant wave height. Confidence intervals are much tighter due to the large size of the data set. The period (9 years) is short enough to be considered stationary even with climate change. Furthermore, the ensemble is large enough for nonparametric 100 year return estimates to be made from order statistics. These direct return estimates compare well with extreme value estimates outside areas with tropical cyclones. Like any method employing modeled fields, it is sensitive to tail biases in the numerical model, but we find that the biases are moderate outside areas with tropical cyclones.

  9. Extremely high Q-factor mechanical modes in quartz bulk acoustic wave resonators at millikelvin temperature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goryachev, M.; Creedon, D. L.; Ivanov, E. N.; Tobar, M. E. [ARC Centre of Excellence for Engineered Quantum Systems, University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley WA 6009 (Australia); Galliou, S.; Bourquin, R. [Department of Time and Frequency, FEMTO-ST Institute, ENSMM, 26 Chemin de l' Épitaphe, 25000, Besançon (France)

    2014-12-04

    We demonstrate that Bulk Acoustic Wave (BAW) quartz resonator cooled down to millikelvin temperatures are excellent building blocks for hybrid quantum systems with extremely long coherence times. Two overtones of the longitudinal mode at frequencies of 15.6 and 65.4 MHz demonstrate a maximum f.Q product of 7.8×10{sup 16} Hz. With this result, the Q-factor in such devices near the quantum ground state can be four orders of magnitude better than previously attained in other mechanical systems. Tested quartz resonators possess the ultra low acoustic losses crucial for electromagnetic cooling to the phonon ground state.

  10. Evolution in Intensity and Frequency of Extreme Events of Precipitation in Northeast Region and Brazilian Amazon in XXI Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fonseca, P. M.; Veiga, J. A.; Correia, F. S.; Brito, A. L.

    2013-05-01

    The aim of this research was evaluate changes in frequency and intensity of extreme events of precipitation in Brazilian Amazon and Northeast Region, doubling CO2 concentration in agreement of IPCC A2 emissions scenarios (Nakicenovic et al., 2001). For this evaluation was used ETA model (Chou et al., 2011), forced with CCSM3 Global model data (Meehl, 2006) to run 4 experiments, only for January, February and March: 1980-1990, 2000-2010, 2040-2050 and 2090-2100. Using the first decade as reference (1980-1990), was evaluated changes occurred in following decades, with a methodology to classify extremes events adapted from Frich (2002) and Gao (2006). Higher was the class, more intense is the event. An increase of 25% was observed in total precipitation in Brazilian Amazon for the end of XXI century and 12% for extreme events type 1, 9% for events type 2 and 10% for type 3. By the other hand, a 17% decrease of precipitation in Brazilian Northeast was observed, and a pronounced decay of 24% and 15% in extreme events contribution type 1 and 2 to total amount of precipitation, respectively. The difference between total normal type events was positive in this three decades compared with reference decade 1980-1990, varying positively from 4 to 6 thousand events included in normality by decade, these events was decreased in your majority of Class 1 events, which presented a decay of at least 3.500 events by each decade. This suggests an intensification of extreme events, considering that the amount of precipitation by class increased, and the number of events by class decreased. To Northeast region, an increasing in 9% of contribution to events type 3 class was observed, as well as in the frequency of this type of events (about of 700 more events). Major decreasing in number of classes extreme events occur in 2000-2010, to classes 1 and 3, with 7,2 and 5,6%, and by the end of century in class 3, with 4,5%. For the three analyzed decades a total decrease of 8.400 events was

  11. Complex Socio-Ecological Dynamics driven by extreme events in the Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinho, P. F.

    2015-12-01

    Several years with extreme floods or droughts in the past decade have caused human suffering in remote communities of the Brazilian Amazon. Despite documented local knowledge and practices for coping with the high seasonal variability characteristic of the region's hydrology (e.g. 10m change in river levels between dry and flood seasons), and despite 'civil Defense' interventions by various levels of government, the more extreme years seem to have exceeded the coping capacity of the community. In this paper, we explore whether there is a real increase in variability, whether the community perceives that recent extreme events are outside the experience which shapes their responses to 'normal' levels of variability, and what science-based policy could contribute to greater local resilience. Hydrological analyses suggest that variability is indeed increasing, in line with expectations from future climate change. However, current measures of hydrological regimes do not predict years with social hardship very well. Interviewees in two regions are able to express their strategies for dealing with 'normal' variability very well, but also identify ways in which abnormal years exceed their ability to cope. Current Civil Defense arrangements struggle to deliver emergency assistance in a sufficiently timely and locally appropriate fashion. Combining these insights in the context of social-ecological change, we suggest how better integration of science, policy and local knowledge could improve resilience to future trends, and identify some contributions science could make into such an arrangement.

  12. Overrepresentation of extreme events in decision making reflects rational use of cognitive resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lieder, Falk; Griffiths, Thomas L; Hsu, Ming

    2018-01-01

    People's decisions and judgments are disproportionately swayed by improbable but extreme eventualities, such as terrorism, that come to mind easily. This article explores whether such availability biases can be reconciled with rational information processing by taking into account the fact that decision makers value their time and have limited cognitive resources. Our analysis suggests that to make optimal use of their finite time decision makers should overrepresent the most important potential consequences relative to less important, put potentially more probable, outcomes. To evaluate this account, we derive and test a model we call utility-weighted sampling. Utility-weighted sampling estimates the expected utility of potential actions by simulating their outcomes. Critically, outcomes with more extreme utilities have a higher probability of being simulated. We demonstrate that this model can explain not only people's availability bias in judging the frequency of extreme events but also a wide range of cognitive biases in decisions from experience, decisions from description, and memory recall. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  13. Sediment transport and deposition during extreme sea storm events at the Salerno Bay (Tyrrhenian Sea: comparison of field data with numerical model results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Budillon

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Seismic stratigraphy and core litho-stratigraphy in the Salerno Bay inner shelf (Southern Tyrrhenian Sea reveal significant storm deposition episodes over the last 1 ky. Three major events are preserved as decimetre thick silt/sand layers bounded at their base by erosional surfaces and sealed in the muddy marine sequences between 25 and 60 m of depth. Geochronology and chrono-stratigraphy on core sediment point towards a recurrence of major sea storms between 0.1 and 0.3 ky and put the last significant event in the 19th century, when no local meteorological time series is available. A modelling of extreme sea-storms with a return period of about 0.1 ky is here proposed based on historical hindcast and aims at explaining the occurrence of such unusual deep and thick sand deposits in the northern sector of the bay. Results highlight the vulnerability of the northern coast of the Salerno Bay to the south western sea storms which can drive waves up to about 8 m high and wave period of about 13 s. With these conditions an intense combined flow current is formed and might account for winnowing fine sand down to the depth of 40 m at least. The numerical model thus confirms a possible sand transport in the bottom boundary layer due to wave-current interaction and could corroborate the interpretation of the most recent sand layers, included in the cores, as being generated under extreme sea storm conditions.

  14. Determination of P – wave arrival time of acoustic events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matěj Petružálek

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available The new approach to the P-wave arrival time determination based on acoustic emission data from loading experiments is tested.The algorithm used in this paper is built on the STA/LTA function computed by a convolution that speeds up the computation processvery much. The picking process makes use of shifting of temporary onset until certain conditions are fulfill and as a main decisioncriterion on the threshold exceeding of the STA/LTA derivation function is used. The P-wave onset time is determined in a selectedinterval that corresponds to the theoretical propagation of elastic wave in the rock sample. Results obtained by our algorithm werecorrelated with data acquired manually and a high order statistic software as well.

  15. Application of Data Cubes for Improving Detection of Water Cycle Extreme Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albayrak, Arif; Teng, William

    2015-01-01

    As part of an ongoing NASA-funded project to remove a longstanding barrier to accessing NASA data (i.e., accessing archived time-step array data as point-time series), for the hydrology and other point-time series-oriented communities, "data cubes" are created from which time series files (aka "data rods") are generated on-the-fly and made available as Web services from the Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). Data cubes are data as archived rearranged into spatio-temporal matrices, which allow for easy access to the data, both spatially and temporally. A data cube is a specific case of the general optimal strategy of reorganizing data to match the desired means of access. The gain from such reorganization is greater the larger the data set. As a use case of our project, we are leveraging existing software to explore the application of the data cubes concept to machine learning, for the purpose of detecting water cycle extreme events, a specific case of anomaly detection, requiring time series data. We investigate the use of support vector machines (SVM) for anomaly classification. We show an example of detection of water cycle extreme events, using data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM).

  16. Extreme Wave Runup over the Steep Rocky Cliffs of Banneg Island, France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ardhuin, F.; Dodet, G.; Leckler, F.; Suanez, S.; Filipot, J. F.

    2016-12-01

    Ocean waves are constantly shaping coastal morphology. When storm waves are combined with high water levels, the wave runup can reach unexpected elevations and become a threat for coastal populations, through dike overtopping, dune breaching or accelerated coastline erosion. Therefore, the wave runup has been largely investigated over the last decades for its key importance in coastal engineering and risk management. Although the strongly nonlinear nature of swash flows prevented theoreticians and modellers from accurately predicting its kinematics, numerous laboratory and field studies provided a means for establishing wave runup empirical formula, which are now commonly used in engineering practice. However, most of the field studies only concerned gently sloping sand beaches, and run-up formula have barely been validated against field observations in steep rocky environments, where data are still very sparse. This study presents water elevation data acquired with pressure sensors solidly fixed to the bedrock of Banneg Island, France, during winter 2013/14. Offshore wave parameters and water levels were also measured during this winter and recorded storm events with Hm0 up to 9 m in spring tide conditions, which caused flooding and boulder transports across the island. A methodology to infer R2% from the local pressure measurements was implemented. The 4-month time-series of run-up measurements at the top and at the bottom of subvertical cliff profiles (with slopes ranging from 20% to 30%) were compared with offshore wave parameters and revealed a strong dependence of R2% to the Hunt parameter (ξ.Hm0). Several period parameters based on the spectral moments were also tested to compute ξ and the best correlations were obtained with T(m0,-1). Finally, the exceptional run-up values (up to 8 m) measured at the cliff top during the major storms allowed to test the validity of existing run-up formula for a range of conditions that exceeds any other observations, to

  17. Investigating the Origins of Two Extreme Solar Particle Events: Proton Source Profile and Associated Electromagnetic Emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kocharov, Leon; Usoskin, Ilya [Sodankylä Geophysical Observatory/Oulu Unit, University of Oulu, P.O.B. 3000, Oulu FI-90014 (Finland); Pohjolainen, Silja [Tuorla Observatory, University of Turku, Piikkiö FI-21500 (Finland); Mishev, Alexander [Space Climate Research Unit, University of Oulu, Oulu FI-90014 (Finland); Reiner, Mike J. [The Catholic University of America, Washington, DC, and NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD (United States); Lee, Jeongwoo [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Seoul National University, Seoul 151-747 (Korea, Republic of); Laitinen, Timo [Jeremiah Horrocks Institute, University of Central Lancashire, Preston PR1 2HE (United Kingdom); Didkovsky, Leonid V. [University of Southern California Space Sciences Center, 835 Bloom Walk, Los Angeles CA 90089 (United States); Pizzo, Victor J. [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, CO 80305 (United States); Kim, Roksoon; Cho, Kyung-Suk [Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute, Daejeon 305-348 (Korea, Republic of); Klassen, Andreas [Institut für Experimentelle und Angewandte Physik, Christian-Albrechts-Universität, Kiel D-24118 (Germany); Karlicky, Marian [Astronomical Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Fričova 258, Ondřejov 251 65 (Czech Republic); Gary, Dale E. [Center for Solar-Terrestrial Research, New Jersey Institute of Technology, Newark NJ 07102-1982 (United States); Valtonen, Eino; Vainio, Rami [Space Research Laboratory, University of Turku, Turku FI-20014 (Finland)

    2017-04-20

    We analyze the high-energy particle emission from the Sun in two extreme solar particle events in which protons are accelerated to relativistic energies and can cause a significant signal even in the ground-based particle detectors. Analysis of a relativistic proton event is based on modeling of the particle transport and interaction, from a near-Sun source through the solar wind and the Earth’s magnetosphere and atmosphere to a detector on the ground. This allows us to deduce the time profile of the proton source at the Sun and compare it with observed electromagnetic emissions. The 1998 May 2 event is associated with a flare and a coronal mass ejection (CME), which were well observed by the Nançay Radioheliograph, thus the images of the radio sources are available. For the 2003 November 2 event, the low corona images of the CME liftoff obtained at the Mauna Loa Solar Observatory are available. Those complementary data sets are analyzed jointly with the broadband dynamic radio spectra, EUV images, and other data available for both events. We find a common scenario for both eruptions, including the flare’s dual impulsive phase, the CME-launch-associated decimetric-continuum burst, and the late, low-frequency type III radio bursts at the time of the relativistic proton injection into the interplanetary medium. The analysis supports the idea that the two considered events start with emission of relativistic protons previously accelerated during the flare and CME launch, then trapped in large-scale magnetic loops and later released by the expanding CME.

  18. An Assessment of Direct and Indirect Economic Losses of Climatic Extreme Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, C.; Willner, S. N.; Wenz, L.; Levermann, A.

    2015-12-01

    Risk of extreme weather events like storms, heat extremes, and floods has already risen due to anthropogenic climate change and is likely to increase further under future global warming. Additionally, the structure of the global economy has changed importantly in the last decades. In the process of globalization, local economies have become more and more interwoven forming a complex network. Together with a trend towards lean production, this has resulted in a strong dependency of local manufacturers on global supply and value added chains, which may render the economic network more vulnerable to climatic extremes; outages of local manufacturers trigger indirect losses, which spread along supply chains and can even outstrip direct losses. Accordingly, in a comprehensive climate risk assessment these inter-linkages should be considered. Here, we present acclimate, an agent based dynamic damage propagation model. Its agents are production and consumption sites, which are interlinked by economic flows accounting for the complexity as well as the heterogeneity of the global supply network. Assessing the economic response on the timescale of the adverse event, the model permits to study temporal and spatial evolution of indirect production losses during the disaster and in the subsequent recovery phase of the economy. In this study, we focus on the dynamic economic resilience defined here as the ratio of direct to total losses. This implies that the resilience of the system under consideration is low if the high indirect losses are high. We find and assess a nonlinear dependence of the resilience on the disaster size. Further, we analyze the influence of the network structure upon resilience and discuss the potential of warehousing as an adaptation option.

  19. The use of geoinformatic data and spatial analysis to predict faecal pollution during extreme precipitation events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Ray; Purnell, Sarah; Ebdon, James; Nnane, Daniel; Taylor, Huw

    2013-04-01

    The Water Framework Directive (WFD) regulates surface water quality standards in the European Union (EU). The Directive call for the identification and management of point and diffuse sources of pollution and requires the establishment of a 'programme of measures' for identified river basin districts, in order to achieve a "good status" by 2015. The hygienic quality of water is normally monitored using faecal indicator organisms (FIO), such as Escherichia coli, which indicate a potential risk to public health from human waterborne pathogens. Environmental factors influence the transmission of these pathogens and indicator organisms, and statistically significant relationships have been found between rainfall and outbreaks of waterborne disease. Climate change has been predicted to lead to an increase in severe weather events in many parts of Europe, including an increase in the frequency of extreme rainfall events. This in turn is likely to lead to an increase in incidents of human waterborne disease in Europe, unless measures are taken to predict and mitigate for such events. This study investigates a variety of environmental factors that influence the concentration of FIO in surface waters receiving faecal contamination from a variety of sources. Levels of FIO, including Escherichia coli, intestinal enterococci, somatic coliphage and GB124 (a human-specific microbial source tracking marker), were monitored in the Sus