WorldWideScience

Sample records for extreme solar storms

  1. The extreme solar storm of May 1921: observations and a complex topological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Lundstedt

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A complex solid torus model was developed in order to be able to study an extreme solar storm, the so-called "Great Storm" or "New York Railroad Storm" of May 1921, when neither high spatial and time resolution magnetic field measurements, solar flare nor coronal mass ejection observations were available. We suggest that a topological change happened in connection with the occurrence of the extreme solar storm. The solar storm caused one of the most severe space weather effects ever.

  2. SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE 2012 JULY 23 EXTREME SOLAR STORM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhu, Bei; Liu, Ying D.; Hu, Huidong; Wang, Rui; Yang, Zhongwei [State Key Laboratory of Space Weather, National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Luhmann, Janet G., E-mail: liuxying@spaceweather.ac.cn [Space Sciences Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States)

    2016-08-20

    We study the solar energetic particle (SEP) event associated with the 2012 July 23 extreme solar storm, for which Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) and the spacecraft at L1 provide multi-point remote sensing and in situ observations. The extreme solar storm, with a superfast shock and extremely enhanced ejecta magnetic fields observed near 1 au at STEREO A , was caused by the combination of successive coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Meanwhile, energetic particles were observed by STEREO and near-Earth spacecraft such as the Advanced Composition Explorer and SOlar and Heliospheric Observatory , suggesting a wide longitudinal spread of the particles at 1 au. Combining the SEP observations with in situ plasma and magnetic field measurements, we investigate the longitudinal distribution of the SEP event in connection with the associated shock and CMEs. Our results underscore the complex magnetic configuration of the inner heliosphere formed by solar eruptions. Examination of particle intensities, proton anisotropy distributions, element abundance ratios, magnetic connectivity, and spectra also gives important clues for particle acceleration, transport, and distribution.

  3. Extreme Geomagnetic Storms – 1868–2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vennerstrøm, Susanne; Lefèvre, L.; Dumbović, M.

    2016-01-01

    presents our investigation of the corresponding solar eventsand their characteristics. The storms were selected based on their intensity in the aa index,which constitutes the longest existing continuous series of geomagnetic activity. They areanalyzed statistically in the context of more well...... occurring in May 1921 and the Quebec storm from March 1989. We identifykey characteristics of the storms by combining several different available data sources, listsof storm sudden commencements (SSCs) signifying occurrence of interplanetary shocks,solar wind in-situ measurements, neutron monitor data...... %), Forbushdecreases (100 %), and energetic solar proton events (70 %). A quantitative comparison ofthese associations relative to less intense storms is also presented. Most notably, we findthat most often the extreme storms are characterized by a complexity that is associated with multiple, often interacting, solar...

  4. Solar storms; Tormentas solares

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Collaboration: Pereira Cuesta, S.; Pereira Pagan, B.

    2016-08-01

    Solar storms begin with an explosion, or solar flare, on the surface of the sun. The X-rays and extreme ultraviolet radiation from the flare reach the Earths orbit minutes later-travelling at light speed. The ionization of upper layers of our atmosphere could cause radio blackouts and satellite navigation errors (GPS). Soon after, a wave of energetic particles, electrons and protons accelerated by the explosion crosses the orbit of the Earth, and can cause real and significant damage. (Author)

  5. On the statistics of the largest geomagnetic storms per solar cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siscoe, G.L.

    1976-01-01

    The theory of extreme value statistics is applied to the first, second, and third largest geomagnetic storms in nine solar cycles measured by the average half-daily aa indices compiled by Mayaud. Analytic expressions giving the probability of the extremes per solar cycle as a contour function of storm magnitude are obtained by least squares fitting of the observations to the appropriate theoretical extreme value probability functions. The results are used to obtain the statistical characteristics (mode, median, mean, and standard deviation) for the extreme values. The results are applied to find the expected range of extreme values in a set as a function of the number of solar cycles in the set. We find that the expected range of the largest storm is quite narrow and is larger for the second and third largest storms. The observed range of the extreme half-daily aa index for the nine solar cycles is 354--546 γ. In a set of 100 cycles the range is expanded esentially to 311--680γ, an increase of only 39% in the range. The result supports the argument for a change in solar cycle statistics in the latter part of the Seventeenth Century (the Maunder minimum)

  6. STATISTICAL STUDY OF STRONG AND EXTREME GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES AND SOLAR CYCLE CHARACTERISTICS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kilpua, E. K. J.; Olspert, N.; Grigorievskiy, A.; Käpylä, M. J.; Tanskanen, E. I.; Pelt, J.; Miyahara, H.; Kataoka, R.; Liu, Y. D.

    2015-01-01

    We study the relation between strong and extreme geomagnetic storms and solar cycle characteristics. The analysis uses an extensive geomagnetic index AA data set spanning over 150 yr complemented by the Kakioka magnetometer recordings. We apply Pearson correlation statistics and estimate the significance of the correlation with a bootstrapping technique. We show that the correlation between the storm occurrence and the strength of the solar cycle decreases from a clear positive correlation with increasing storm magnitude toward a negligible relationship. Hence, the quieter Sun can also launch superstorms that may lead to significant societal and economic impact. Our results show that while weaker storms occur most frequently in the declining phase, the stronger storms have the tendency to occur near solar maximum. Our analysis suggests that the most extreme solar eruptions do not have a direct connection between the solar large-scale dynamo-generated magnetic field, but are rather associated with smaller-scale dynamo and resulting turbulent magnetic fields. The phase distributions of sunspots and storms becoming increasingly in phase with increasing storm strength, on the other hand, may indicate that the extreme storms are related to the toroidal component of the solar large-scale field

  7. STATISTICAL STUDY OF STRONG AND EXTREME GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES AND SOLAR CYCLE CHARACTERISTICS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kilpua, E. K. J. [Department of Physics, University Helsinki (Finland); Olspert, N.; Grigorievskiy, A.; Käpylä, M. J.; Tanskanen, E. I.; Pelt, J. [ReSoLVE Centre of Excellence, Department of Computer Science, P.O. Box 15400, FI-00076 Aalto Univeristy (Finland); Miyahara, H. [Musashino Art University, 1-736 Ogawa-cho, Kodaira-shi, Tokyo 187-8505 (Japan); Kataoka, R. [National Institute of Polar Research, 10-3 Midori-cho, Tachikawa, Tokyo 190-8518 (Japan); Liu, Y. D. [State Key Laboratory of Space Weather, National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China)

    2015-06-20

    We study the relation between strong and extreme geomagnetic storms and solar cycle characteristics. The analysis uses an extensive geomagnetic index AA data set spanning over 150 yr complemented by the Kakioka magnetometer recordings. We apply Pearson correlation statistics and estimate the significance of the correlation with a bootstrapping technique. We show that the correlation between the storm occurrence and the strength of the solar cycle decreases from a clear positive correlation with increasing storm magnitude toward a negligible relationship. Hence, the quieter Sun can also launch superstorms that may lead to significant societal and economic impact. Our results show that while weaker storms occur most frequently in the declining phase, the stronger storms have the tendency to occur near solar maximum. Our analysis suggests that the most extreme solar eruptions do not have a direct connection between the solar large-scale dynamo-generated magnetic field, but are rather associated with smaller-scale dynamo and resulting turbulent magnetic fields. The phase distributions of sunspots and storms becoming increasingly in phase with increasing storm strength, on the other hand, may indicate that the extreme storms are related to the toroidal component of the solar large-scale field.

  8. Solar noise storms

    CERN Document Server

    Elgaroy, E O

    2013-01-01

    Solar Noise Storms examines the properties and features of solar noise storm phenomenon. The book also presents some theories that can be used to gain a better understanding of the phenomenon. The coverage of the text includes topics that cover the features and behavior of noise storms, such as the observable features of noise storms; the relationship between noise storms and the observable features on the sun; and ordered behavior of storm bursts in the time-frequency plane. The book also covers the spectrum, polarization, and directivity of noise storms. The text will be of great use to astr

  9. Examine Precipitation Extremes in Terms of Storm Properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, P.; Yu, Z.; Chen, L.; Gautam, M. R.; Acharya, K.

    2017-12-01

    The increasing potential of the extreme precipitation is of significant societal concern. Changes in precipitation extremes have been mostly examined using extreme precipitation indices or Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) analyses, which often fail to reveal the characteristics of an integrated precipitation event. In this study, we will examine the precipitation extremes in terms of storm properties including storm duration, storm intensity, total storm precipitation, and within storm pattern. Single storm event will be identified and storm properties will be determined based on the hourly precipitation time series in the selected locations in southwest United States. Three types of extreme precipitation event will be recognized using the criteria as (1) longest storm duration; (2) Highest storm intensity; and (3) largest total precipitation over a storm. The trend and variation of extreme precipitation events will be discussed for each criterion. Based on the comparisons of the characteristics of extreme precipitation events identified using different criteria, we will provide guidelines for choosing proper criteria for extreme precipitation analysis in specific location.

  10. Detailed Analysis of Solar Data Related to Historical Extreme Geomagnetic Storms: 1868 – 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lefèvre, Laure; Vennerstrøm, Susanne; Dumbović, Mateja

    2016-01-01

    An analysis of historical Sun–Earth connection events in the context of the most extreme space weather events of the last ∼ 150 years is presented. To identify the key factors leading to these extreme events, a sample of the most important geomagnetic storms was selected based mainly on the well-...

  11. Nuclear magnetohydrodynamic EMP, solar storms, and substorms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rabinowitz, M.; Meliopoulous, A.P.S.; Glytsis, E.N.

    1992-01-01

    In addition to a fast electromagnetic pulse (EMP), a high altitude nuclear burst produces a relatively slow magnetohydrodynamic EMP (MHD EMP), whose effects are like those from solar storm geomagnetically induced currents (SS-GIC). The MHD EMP electric field E approx-lt 10 - 1 V/m and lasts approx-lt 10 2 sec, whereas for solar storms E approx-gt 10 - 2 V/m and lasts approx-gt 10 3 sec. Although the solar storm electric field is lower than MHD EMP, the solar storm effects are generally greater due to their much longer duration. Substorms produce much smaller effects than SS-GIC, but occur much more frequently. This paper describes the physics of such geomagnetic disturbances and analyzes their effects

  12. The structure of the big magnetic storms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mihajlivich, J. Spomenko; Chop, Rudi; Palangio, Paolo

    2010-01-01

    The records of geomagnetic activity during Solar Cycles 22 and 23 (which occurred from 1986 to 2006) indicate several extremely intensive A-class geomagnetic storms. These were storms classified in the category of the Big Magnetic Storms. In a year of maximum solar activity during Solar Cycle 23, or more precisely, during a phase designated as a post-maximum phase in solar activity (PPM - Phase Post maximum), near the autumn equinox, on 29, October 2003, an extremely strong and intensive magnetic storm was recorded. In the first half of November 2004 (7, November 2004) an intensive magnetic storm was recorded (the Class Big Magnetic Storm). The level of geomagnetic field variations which were recorded for the selected Big Magnetic Storms, was ΔD st=350 nT. For the Big Magnetic Storms the indicated three-hour interval indices geomagnetic activity was Kp = 9. This study presents the spectral composition of the Di - variations which were recorded during magnetic storms in October 2003 and November 2004. (Author)

  13. Solar wind drivers of geomagnetic storms during more than four solar cycles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richardson Ian G.

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Using a classification of the near-Earth solar wind into three basic flow types: (1 High-speed streams associated with coronal holes at the Sun; (2 Slow, interstream solar wind; and (3 Transient flows originating with coronal mass ejections (CMEs at the Sun, including interplanetary CMEs and the associated upstream shocks and post-shock regions, we determine the drivers of geomagnetic storms of various size ranges based on the Kp index and the NOAA “G” criteria since 1964, close to the beginning of the space era, to 2011, encompassing more than four solar cycles (20–23. We also briefly discuss the occurrence of storms since the beginning of the Kp index in 1932, in the minimum before cycle 17. We note that the extended low level of storm activity during the minimum following cycle 23 is without precedent in this 80-year interval. Furthermore, the “typical” numbers of storm days/cycle quoted in the standard NOAA G storm table appear to be significantly higher than those obtained from our analysis, except for the strongest (G5 storms, suggesting that they should be revised downward.

  14. On the Reduced Geoeffectiveness of Solar Cycle 24: A Moderate Storm Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selvakumaran, R.; Veenadhari, B.; Akiyama, S.; Pandya, Megha; Gopalswamy, N,; Yashiro, S.; Kumar, Sandeep; Makela, P.; Xie, H.

    2016-01-01

    The moderate and intense geomagnetic storms are identified for the first 77 months of solar cycles 23 and 24. The solar sources responsible for the moderate geomagnetic storms are indentified during the same epoch for both the cycles. Solar cycle 24 has shown nearly 80% reduction in the occurrence of intense storms whereas it is only 40% in case of moderate storms when compared to previous cycle. The solar and interplanetary characteristics of the moderate storms driven by coronal mass ejection (CME) are compared for solar cycles 23 and 24 in order to see reduction in geoeffectiveness has anything to do with the occurrence of moderate storm. Though there is reduction in the occurrence of moderate storms, the Dst distribution does not show much difference. Similarly, the solar source parameters like CME speed, mass, and width did not show any significant variation in the average values as well as the distribution. The correlation between VBz and Dst is determined, and it is found to be moderate with value of 0.68 for cycle 23 and 0.61 for cycle 24. The magnetospheric energy flux parameter epsilon (epsilon) is estimated during the main phase of all moderate storms during solar cycles 23 and 24. The energy transfer decreased in solar cycle 24 when compared to cycle 23. These results are significantly different when all geomagnetic storms are taken into consideration for both the solar cycles.

  15. Solar cycle effect on geomagnetic storms caused by interplanetary magnetic clouds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C.-C. Wu

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available We investigated geomagnetic activity which was induced by interplanetary magnetic clouds during the past four solar cycles, 1965–1998. We have found that the intensity of such geomagnetic storms is more severe in solar maximum than in solar minimum. In addition, we affirm that the average solar wind speed of magnetic clouds is faster in solar maximum than in solar minimum. In this study, we find that solar activity level plays a major role on the intensity of geomagnetic storms. In particular, some new statistical results are found and listed as follows. (1 The intensity of a geomagnetic storm in a solar active period is stronger than in a solar quiet period. (2 The magnitude of negative Bzmin is larger in a solar active period than in a quiet period. (3 Solar wind speed in an active period is faster than in a quiet period. (4 VBsmax in an active period is much larger than in a quiet period. (5 Solar wind parameters, Bzmin, Vmax and VBsmax are correlated well with geomagnetic storm intensity, Dstmin during a solar active period. (6 Solar wind parameters, Bzmin, and VBsmax are not correlated well (very poorly for Vmax with geomagnetic storm intensity during a solar quiet period. (7 The speed of the solar wind plays a key role in the correlation of solar wind parameters vs. the intensity of a geomagnetic storm. (8 More severe storms with Dstmin≤−100 nT caused by MCs occurred in the solar active period than in the solar quiet period.

  16. Great magnetic storms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsurutani, B.T.; Yen Te Lee; Tang, F.; Gonzalez, W.D.

    1992-01-01

    The five largest magnetic storms that occurred between 1971 and 1986 are studied to determine their solar and interplanetary causes. All of the events are found to be associated with high speed solar wind streams led by collisionless shocks. The high speed streams are clearly related to identifiable solar flares. It is found that (1) it is the extreme values of the southward interplanetary magnetic fields rather than solar wind speeds that are the primary causes of great magnetic storms, (2) shocked and draped sheath fields preceding the driver gas (magnetic cloud) are at least as effective in causing the onset of great magnetic storms (3 of 5 events ) as the strong fields within the driver gas itself, and (3) precursor southward fields ahead of the high speed streams allow the shock compression mechanism (item 2) to be particularly geoeffective

  17. The dichotomous response of flood and storm extremes to rising global temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, A.; Wasko, C.

    2017-12-01

    Rising temperature have resulted in increases in short-duration rainfall extremes across the world. Additionally it has been shown (doi:10.1038/ngeo2456) that storms will intensify, causing derived flood peaks to rise even more. This leads us to speculate that flood peaks will increase as a result, complying with the storyline presented in past IPCC reports. This talk, however, shows that changes in flood extremes are much more complex. Using global data on extreme flow events, the study conclusively shows that while the very extreme floods may be rising as a result of storm intensification, the more frequent flood events are decreasing in magnitude. The study argues that changes in the magnitude of floods are a function of changes in storm patterns and as well as pre-storm or antecedent conditions. It goes on to show that while changes in storms dominate for the most extreme events and over smaller, more urbanised catchments, changes in pre-storm conditions are the driving factor in modulating flood peaks in large rural catchments. The study concludes by providing recommendations on how future flood design should proceed, arguing that current practices (or using a design storm to estimate floods) are flawed and need changing.

  18. The impact of solar flares and magnetic storms on humans

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joselyn, J.A. (NOAA, Space Environment Laboratory, Boulder, CO (United States))

    1992-03-01

    Three classes of solar emanations, namely, photon radiation from solar flares, solar energetic particles, and inhomogeneities in the solar wind that drive magnetic storms, are examined, and their effects on humans and technological systems are discussed. Solar flares may disrupt radio communications in the HF and VLF ranges. Energetic particles pose a special hazard at low-earth orbit and above, where they can penetrate barriers such as spacesuits and aluminum and destroy cells and solid state electronics. Energetic solar particles also influence terrestrial radio waves propagating through polar regions. Magnetic storms may disturb the operation of navigation instruments, power lines and pipelines, and satellites; they give rise to ionospheric storms which affect radio communication at all latitudes. There is also a growing body of evidence that changes in the geomagnetic field affect biological systems. 3 refs.

  19. The impact of solar flares and magnetic storms on humans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joselyn, J.A.

    1992-01-01

    Three classes of solar emanations, namely, photon radiation from solar flares, solar energetic particles, and inhomogeneities in the solar wind that drive magnetic storms, are examined, and their effects on humans and technological systems are discussed. Solar flares may disrupt radio communications in the HF and VLF ranges. Energetic particles pose a special hazard at low-earth orbit and above, where they can penetrate barriers such as spacesuits and aluminum and destroy cells and solid state electronics. Energetic solar particles also influence terrestrial radio waves propagating through polar regions. Magnetic storms may disturb the operation of navigation instruments, power lines and pipelines, and satellites; they give rise to ionospheric storms which affect radio communication at all latitudes. There is also a growing body of evidence that changes in the geomagnetic field affect biological systems. 3 refs

  20. Solar wind-magnetosphere coupling during intense magnetic storms (1978-1979)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez, Walter D.; Gonzalez, Alicia L. C.; Tsurutani, Bruce T.; Smith, Edward J.; Tang, Frances

    1989-01-01

    The solar wind-magnetosphere coupling problem during intense magnetic storms was investigated for ten intense magnetic storm events occurring between August 16, 1978 to December 28, 1979. Particular attention was given to the dependence of the ring current energization on the ISEE-measured solar-wind parameters and the evolution of the ring current during the main phase of the intense storms. Several coupling functions were tested as energy input, and several sets of the ring current decay time-constant were searched for the best correlation with the Dst response. Results indicate that a large-scale magnetopause reconnection operates during an intense storm event and that the solar wind ram pressure plays an important role in the energization of the ring current.

  1. Coronal mass ejections and disturbances in solar wind plasma parameters in relation with geomagnetic storms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verma, P L; Singh, Puspraj; Singh, Preetam

    2014-01-01

    Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are the drastic solar events in which huge amount of solar plasma materials are ejected into the heliosphere from the sun and are mainly responsible to generate large disturbances in solar wind plasma parameters and geomagnetic storms in geomagnetic field. We have studied geomagnetic storms, (Dst ≤-75 nT) observed during the period of 1997-2007 with Coronal Mass Ejections and disturbances in solar wind plasma parameters (solar wind temperature, velocity, density and interplanetary magnetic field) .We have inferred that most of the geomagnetic storms are associated with halo and partial halo Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs).The association rate of halo and partial halo coronal mass ejections are found 72.37 % and 27.63 % respectively. Further we have concluded that geomagnetic storms are closely associated with the disturbances in solar wind plasma parameters. We have determined positive co-relation between magnitudes of geomagnetic storms and magnitude of jump in solar wind plasma temperature, jump in solar wind plasma density, jump in solar wind plasma velocity and jump in average interplanetary magnetic field with co-relation co-efficient 0 .35 between magnitude of geomagnetic storms and magnitude of jump in solar wind plasma temperature, 0.19 between magnitude of geomagnetic storms and magnitude of jump in solar wind density, 0.34 between magnitude of geomagnetic storms and magnitude of jump in solar wind plasma velocity, 0.66 between magnitude of geomagnetic storms and magnitude of jump in average interplanetary magnetic field respectively. We have concluded that geomagnetic storms are mainly caused by Coronal Mass Ejections and disturbances in solar wind plasma parameters that they generate.

  2. The analysis of dependence between extreme rainfall and storm surge in the coastal zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, F.; Westra, S.

    2012-12-01

    Flooding in coastal catchments can be caused by runoff generated by an extreme rainfall event, elevated sea levels due to an extreme storm surge event, or the combination of both processes occurring simultaneously or in close succession. Dependence in extreme rainfall and storm surge arises because common meteorological forcings often drive both variables; for example, cyclonic systems may produce extreme rainfall, strong onshore winds and an inverse barometric effect simultaneously, which the former factor influencing catchment discharge and the latter two factors influencing storm surge. Nevertheless there is also the possibility that only one of the variables is extreme at any given time, so that the dependence between rainfall and storm surge is not perfect. Quantification of the strength of dependence between these processes is critical in evaluating the magnitude of flood risk in the coastal zone. This may become more important in the future as the majority of the coastal areas are threatened by the sea level rise due to the climate change. This research uses the most comprehensive record of rainfall and storm surge along the coastline of Australia collected to-date to investigate the strength of dependence between the extreme rainfall and storm surge along the Australia coastline. A bivariate logistic threshold-excess model was employed to this end to carry out the dependence analysis. The strength of the estimated dependence is then evaluated as a function of several factors including: the distance between the tidal gauge and the rain gauge; the lag between the extreme precipitation event and extreme surge event; and the duration of the maximum storm burst. The results show that the dependence between the extreme rainfall and storm surge along the Australia coastline is statistically significant, although some locations clearly exhibit stronger dependence than others. We hypothesize that this is due to a combination of large-scale meteorological effects as

  3. The 2015 Summer Solstice Storm: One of the Major Geomagnetic Storms of Solar Cycle 24 Observed at Ground Level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Augusto, C. R. A.; Navia, C. E.; de Oliveira, M. N.; Nepomuceno, A. A.; Raulin, J. P.; Tueros, E.; de Mendonça, R. R. S.; Fauth, A. C.; Vieira de Souza, H.; Kopenkin, V.; Sinzi, T.

    2018-05-01

    We report on the 22 - 23 June 2015 geomagnetic storm that occurred at the summer solstice. There have been fewer intense geomagnetic storms during the current solar cycle, Solar Cycle 24, than in the previous cycle. This situation changed after mid-June 2015, when one of the largest solar active regions (AR 12371) of Solar Cycle 24 that was located close to the central meridian, produced several coronal mass ejections (CMEs) associated with M-class flares. The impact of these CMEs on the Earth's magnetosphere resulted in a moderate to severe G4-class geomagnetic storm on 22 - 23 June 2015 and a G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storm on 24 June. The G4 solstice storm was the second largest (so far) geomagnetic storm of Cycle 24. We highlight the ground-level observations made with the New-Tupi, Muonca, and the CARPET El Leoncito cosmic-ray detectors that are located within the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) region. These observations are studied in correlation with data obtained by space-borne detectors (ACE, GOES, SDO, and SOHO) and other ground-based experiments. The CME designations are taken from the Computer Aided CME Tracking (CACTus) automated catalog. As expected, Forbush decreases (FD) associated with the passing CMEs were recorded by these detectors. We note a peculiar feature linked to a severe geomagnetic storm event. The 21 June 2015 CME 0091 (CACTus CME catalog number) was likely associated with the 22 June summer solstice FD event. The angular width of CME 0091 was very narrow and measured {˜} 56° degrees seen from Earth. In most cases, only CME halos and partial halos lead to severe geomagnetic storms. We perform a cross-check analysis of the FD events detected during the rise phase of Solar Cycle 24, the geomagnetic parameters, and the CACTus CME catalog. Our study suggests that narrow angular-width CMEs that erupt in a westward direction from the Sun-Earth line can lead to moderate and severe geomagnetic storms. We also report on the strong solar proton

  4. Solar Wind Charge Exchange During Geomagnetic Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Ina P.; Cravens, Thomas E.; Sibeck, David G.; Collier, Michael R.; Kuntz, K. D.

    2012-01-01

    On March 31st. 2001, a coronal mass ejection pushed the subsolar magnetopause to the vicinity of geosynchronous orbit at 6.6 RE. The NASA/GSFC Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMe) employed a global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model to simulate the solar wind-magnetosphere interaction during the peak of this geomagnetic storm. Robertson et aL then modeled the expected 50ft X-ray emission due to solar wind charge exchange with geocoronal neutrals in the dayside cusp and magnetosheath. The locations of the bow shock, magnetopause and cusps were clearly evident in their simulations. Another geomagnetic storm took place on July 14, 2000 (Bastille Day). We again modeled X-ray emission due to solar wind charge exchange, but this time as observed from a moving spacecraft. This paper discusses the impact of spacecraft location on observed X-ray emission and the degree to which the locations of the bow shock and magnetopause can be detected in images.

  5. Use of historical information in extreme storm surges frequency analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamdi, Yasser; Duluc, Claire-Marie; Deville, Yves; Bardet, Lise; Rebour, Vincent

    2013-04-01

    The prevention of storm surge flood risks is critical for protection and design of coastal facilities to very low probabilities of failure. The effective protection requires the use of a statistical analysis approach having a solid theoretical motivation. Relating extreme storm surges to their frequency of occurrence using probability distributions has been a common issue since 1950s. The engineer needs to determine the storm surge of a given return period, i.e., the storm surge quantile or design storm surge. Traditional methods for determining such a quantile have been generally based on data from the systematic record alone. However, the statistical extrapolation, to estimate storm surges corresponding to high return periods, is seriously contaminated by sampling and model uncertainty if data are available for a relatively limited period. This has motivated the development of approaches to enlarge the sample extreme values beyond the systematic period. The nonsystematic data occurred before the systematic period is called historical information. During the last three decades, the value of using historical information as a nonsystematic data in frequency analysis has been recognized by several authors. The basic hypothesis in statistical modeling of historical information is that a perception threshold exists and that during a giving historical period preceding the period of tide gauging, all exceedances of this threshold have been recorded. Historical information prior to the systematic records may arise from high-sea water marks left by extreme surges on the coastal areas. It can also be retrieved from archives, old books, earliest newspapers, damage reports, unpublished written records and interviews with local residents. A plotting position formula, to compute empirical probabilities based on systematic and historical data, is used in this communication paper. The objective of the present work is to examine the potential gain in estimation accuracy with the

  6. Solar wind-magnetosphere coupling during intense magnetic storms (1978--1979)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez, W.D.; Tsurutani, B.T.; Gonzalez, A.L.C.; Smith, E.J.; Tang, F.; Akasofu, S.

    1989-01-01

    The solar wind-magnetosphere coupling problem is investigated for the ten intense magnetic storms (Dst <-100 nT) that occurred during the 500 days (August 16, 1978 to December 28, 1979) studied by Gonzalez and Tsurutani [1987]. This investigation concentrates on the ring current energization in terms of solar wind parameters, in order to explain the | -Dst | growth observed during these storms. Thus several coupling functions are tested as energy input and several sets of the ring current decay time-constant τ are searched to find best correlations with the Dst response. From the fairly large correlation coefficients found in this study, there is strong evidence that large scale magnetopause reconnection operates during such intense storm events and that the solar wind ram pressure plays an important role in the ring current energization. Thus a ram pressure correction factor is suggested for expressions concerning the reconnection power during time intervals with large ram pressure variations

  7. ARkStorm@Tahoe: Stakeholder perspectives on vulnerabilities and preparedness for an extreme storm event in the greater Lake Tahoe, Reno, and Carson City region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albano, Christine M.; Cox, Dale A.; Dettinger, Michael; Shaller, Kevin; Welborn, Toby L.; McCarthy, Maureen

    2014-01-01

    Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are strongly linked to extreme winter precipitation events in the Western U.S., accounting for 80 percent of extreme floods in the Sierra Nevada and surrounding lowlands. In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey developed the ARkStorm extreme storm scenario for California to quantify risks from extreme winter storms and to allow stakeholders to better explore and mitigate potential impacts. To explore impacts on natural resources and communities in montane and adjacent environments, we downscaled the scenario to the greater Lake Tahoe, Reno and Carson City region of northern Nevada and California. This ArkStorm@Tahoe scenario was presented at six stakeholder meetings, each with a different geographic and subject matter focus. Discussions were facilitated by the ARkStorm@Tahoe team to identify social and ecological vulnerabilities to extreme winter storms, science and information needs, and proactive measures that might minimize impacts from this type of event. Information collected in these meetings was used to develop a tabletop emergency response exercise and set of recommendations for increasing resilience to extreme winter storm events in both Tahoe and the downstream communities of Northern Nevada.Over 300 individuals participated in ARkStorm@Tahoe stakeholder meetings and the emergency response exercise, including representatives from emergency response, natural resource and ecosystem management, health and human services, public utilities, and businesses. Interruption of transportation, communications, and lack of power and backup fuel supplies were identified as the most likely and primary points of failure across multiple sectors and geographies, as these interruptions have cascading effects on natural and human systems by impeding emergency response efforts. Other key issues that arose in discussions included contamination risks to water supplies and aquatic ecosystems, especially in the Tahoe Basin and Pyramid Lake, interagency

  8. A synoptic study of geomagnetic storms and related solar phenomena during 1976 through 1978

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marubashi, K.

    1979-01-01

    An attempt has been made to identify the causes of geomagnetic storms which occurred during the three year period from 1976 through 1978. Of the 114 storms with D sub(st) = 25 investigated in this paper, 52 storms are found to be caused by corotating streams, 16 storms by solar flares, and 19 storms by compound effects of both corotating streams and flares. The causes of the remaining 27 storms could not be identified. By examining the characteristics of those solar flares which were taken to be responsible for geomagnetic storms, a semiquantitative conclusion has been obtained about the criteria for the flares which can produce magnetic storms. In addition, clear semiannual variation has been found in geomagnetic activity caused by flare-free corotating streams. (author)

  9. Morphology of geomagnetic storms, recorded at Hurbanovo, and its relation to solar activity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ochabova, P.; Psenakova, M.

    1977-01-01

    The morphological structure of geomagnetic storms was investigated using the data on 414 storms, recorded in the years 1949 to 1968 at the Geomagnetic Observatory of Hurbanovo (phi=47.9 deg N, lambda=18.2 deg E). These data also formed a suitable basis for investigating the effect of the solar activity on the characteristic features of storms. The storm-time variation of the geomagnetic field was considered after the Sq-variation had been eliminated. The sets of storms, i.e. 263 storms recorded at a time of high sunspot activity and 151 storms recorded at a time of low activity, were divided into 7 groups, depending on the duration of their initial phase. In 92% of the investigated storms the increase in the horizontal component lasted from 0 to 15 hrs. The effect of the solar activity was markedly reflected in the occurrence of very severe storms, as well as in the maximum decrease in the H-component in the main phase. This can also be seen in the rate at which the storms recover. (author)

  10. Two-Step Forecast of Geomagnetic Storm Using Coronal Mass Ejection and Solar Wind Condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, R.-S.; Moon, Y.-J.; Gopalswamy, N.; Park, Y.-D.; Kim, Y.-H.

    2014-01-01

    To forecast geomagnetic storms, we had examined initially observed parameters of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and introduced an empirical storm forecast model in a previous study. Now we suggest a two-step forecast considering not only CME parameters observed in the solar vicinity but also solar wind conditions near Earth to improve the forecast capability. We consider the empirical solar wind criteria derived in this study (Bz = -5 nT or Ey = 3 mV/m for t = 2 h for moderate storms with minimum Dst less than -50 nT) (i.e. Magnetic Field Magnitude, B (sub z) less than or equal to -5 nanoTeslas or duskward Electrical Field, E (sub y) greater than or equal to 3 millivolts per meter for time greater than or equal to 2 hours for moderate storms with Minimum Disturbance Storm Time, Dst less than -50 nanoTeslas) and a Dst model developed by Temerin and Li (2002, 2006) (TL [i.e. Temerin Li] model). Using 55 CME-Dst pairs during 1997 to 2003, our solar wind criteria produce slightly better forecasts for 31 storm events (90 percent) than the forecasts based on the TL model (87 percent). However, the latter produces better forecasts for 24 nonstorm events (88 percent), while the former correctly forecasts only 71 percent of them. We then performed the two-step forecast. The results are as follows: (i) for 15 events that are incorrectly forecasted using CME parameters, 12 cases (80 percent) can be properly predicted based on solar wind conditions; (ii) if we forecast a storm when both CME and solar wind conditions are satisfied (n, i.e. cap operator - the intersection set that is comprised of all the elements that are common to both), the critical success index becomes higher than that from the forecast using CME parameters alone, however, only 25 storm events (81 percent) are correctly forecasted; and (iii) if we forecast a storm when either set of these conditions is satisfied (?, i.e. cup operator - the union set that is comprised of all the elements of either or both

  11. Distant Tail Behavior During High Speed Solar Wind Streams and Magnetic Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, C. M.; Tsurutani, B. T.

    1997-01-01

    We have examined the ISEE 3 distant tail data during three intense magnetic storms and have identified the tail response to high-speed solar wind streams, interplanetary magnetic clouds, and near-Earth storms.

  12. Storms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, Keizo; Melrose, D.B.; Suzuki, S.

    1985-01-01

    At metre and decametre wavelengths long-lasting solar radio emission, consisting of thousands of short-lived spikes superimposed on a slowly varying continuum, is observed. This type of storm emission may continue for periods ranging from a few hours to several days; the long duration is one of the characteristics which distinguish storms from other types of solar radio emission. These events are called storms or noise storms by analogy with geomagnetic storms. (author)

  13. Variation of Magnetic Field (By , Bz) Polarity and Statistical Analysis of Solar Wind Parameters during the Magnetic Storm Period

    OpenAIRE

    Ga-Hee Moon

    2011-01-01

    It is generally believed that the occurrence of a magnetic storm depends upon the solar wind conditions, particularly the southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) component. To understand the relationship between solar wind parameters and magnetic storms, variations in magnetic field polarity and solar wind parameters during magnetic storms are examined. A total of 156 storms during the period of 1997~2003 are used. According to the interplanetary driver, magnetic storms are ...

  14. 76 FR 74776 - Forum-Trends in Extreme Winds, Waves, and Extratropical Storms Along the Coasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-01

    ... Winds, Waves, and Extratropical Storms Along the Coasts AGENCY: National Environmental Satellite, Data...-extratropical-storms/home . FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Brooke Stewart, National Climatic Data Center, 151.../noaa.gov/extreme-winds-waves-extratropical-storms/home . Topics To Be Addressed This forum will address...

  15. SOLAR RADIO TYPE-I NOISE STORM MODULATED BY CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iwai, K.; Tsuchiya, F.; Morioka, A.; Misawa, H.; Miyoshi, Y.; Masuda, S.; Shimojo, M.; Shiota, D.; Inoue, S.

    2012-01-01

    The first coordinated observations of an active region using ground-based radio telescopes and the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) satellites from different heliocentric longitudes were performed to study solar radio type-I noise storms. A type-I noise storm was observed between 100 and 300 MHz during a period from 2010 February 6 to 7. During this period the two STEREO satellites were located approximately 65° (ahead) and –70° (behind) from the Sun-Earth line, which is well suited to observe the earthward propagating coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The radio flux of the type-I noise storm was enhanced after the preceding CME and began to decrease before the subsequent CME. This time variation of the type-I noise storm was directly related to the change of the particle acceleration processes around its source region. Potential-field source-surface extrapolation from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Michelson Doppler Imager (SOHO/MDI) magnetograms suggested that there was a multipolar magnetic system around the active region from which the CMEs occurred around the magnetic neutral line of the system. From our observational results, we suggest that the type-I noise storm was activated at a side-lobe reconnection region that was formed after eruption of the preceding CME. This magnetic structure was deformed by a loop expansion that led to the subsequent CME, which then suppressed the radio burst emission.

  16. Significantly Increased Extreme Precipitation Expected in Europe and North America from Extratropical Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawcroft, M.; Hodges, K.; Walsh, E.; Zappa, G.

    2017-12-01

    For the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, changes in circulation are key to determining the impacts of climate warming. The mechanisms governing these circulation changes are complex, leading to the well documented uncertainty in projections of the future location of the mid-latitude storm tracks simulated by climate models. These storms are the primary source of precipitation for North America and Europe and generate many of the large-scale precipitation extremes associated with flooding and severe economic loss. Here, we show that in spite of the uncertainty in circulation changes, by analysing the behaviour of the storms themselves, we find entirely consistent and robust projections across an ensemble of climate models. In particular, we find that projections of change in the most intensely precipitating storms (above the present day 99th percentile) in the Northern Hemisphere are substantial and consistent across models, with large increases in the frequency of both summer (June-August, +226±68%) and winter (December-February, +186±34%) extreme storms by the end of the century. Regionally, both North America (summer +202±129%, winter +232±135%) and Europe (summer +390±148%, winter +318±114%) are projected to experience large increases in the frequency of intensely precipitating storms. These changes are thermodynamic and driven by surface warming, rather than by changes in the dynamical behaviour of the storms. Such changes in storm behaviour have the potential to have major impacts on society given intensely precipitating storms are responsible for many large-scale flooding events.

  17. Polarization reversal during the solar noise storm activity of August 1971

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kurihara, Masahiro

    1975-01-01

    Reversals of the sense of circular polarization of solar radio emission were observed for active type I storms in August 1971. Observations with a 160-MHz interferometer revealed that the reversals were caused by sudden growth and decay of a secondary storm source whose sense of polarization was opposite to that of the long-lasting main source. The time variations of both the associated S-component sources and sunspots are compared with that of the storm sources. The role of the magnetic field, which presumably connects the storm sources, the S-component sources, and the sunspots, is discussed in relation to the origin of the storm activity. (author)

  18. Variation of Magnetic Field (By , Bz Polarity and Statistical Analysis of Solar Wind Parameters during the Magnetic Storm Period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ga-Hee Moon

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available It is generally believed that the occurrence of a magnetic storm depends upon the solar wind conditions, particularly the southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF component. To understand the relationship between solar wind parameters and magnetic storms, variations in magnetic field polarity and solar wind parameters during magnetic storms are examined. A total of 156 storms during the period of 1997~2003 are used. According to the interplanetary driver, magnetic storms are divided into three types, which are coronal mass ejection (CME-driven storms, co-rotating interaction region (CIR-driven storms, and complicated type storms. Complicated types were not included in this study. For this purpose, the manner in which the direction change of IMF By and Bz components (in geocentric solar magnetospheric coordinate system coordinate during the main phase is related with the development of the storm is examined. The time-integrated solar wind parameters are compared with the time-integrated disturbance storm time (Dst index during the main phase of each magnetic storm. The time lag with the storm size is also investigated. Some results are worth noting: CME-driven storms, under steady conditions of Bz < 0, represent more than half of the storms in number. That is, it is found that the average number of storms for negative sign of IMF Bz (T1~T4 is high, at 56.4%, 53.0%, and 63.7% in each storm category, respectively. However, for the CIR-driven storms, the percentage of moderate storms is only 29.2%, while the number of intense storms is more than half (60.0% under the Bz < 0 condition. It is found that the correlation is highest between the time-integrated IMF Bz and the time-integrated Dst index for the CME-driven storms. On the other hand, for the CIR-driven storms, a high correlation is found, with the correlation coefficient being 0.93, between time-integrated Dst index and time-integrated solar wind speed, while a low correlation, 0.51, is

  19. Average profiles of the solar wind and outer radiation belt during the extreme flux enhancement of relativistic electrons at geosynchronous orbit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Kataoka

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available We report average profiles of the solar wind and outer radiation belt during the extreme flux enhancement of relativistic electrons at geosynchronous orbit (GEO. It is found that seven of top ten extreme events at GEO during solar cycle 23 are associated with the magnetosphere inflation during the storm recovery phase as caused by the large-scale solar wind structure of very low dynamic pressure (<1.0 nPa during rapid speed decrease from very high (>650 km/s to typical (400–500 km/s in a few days. For the seven events, the solar wind parameters, geomagnetic activity indices, and relativistic electron flux and geomagnetic field at GEO are superposed at the local noon period of GOES satellites to investigate the physical cause. The average profiles support the "double inflation" mechanism that the rarefaction of the solar wind and subsequent magnetosphere inflation are one of the best conditions to produce the extreme flux enhancement at GEO because of the excellent magnetic confinement of relativistic electrons by reducing the drift loss of trapped electrons at dayside magnetopause.

  20. Time Delay Between Dst Index and Magnetic Storm Related Structure in the Solar Wind

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osherovich, Vladimir A.; Fainberg, Joseph

    2015-01-01

    Benson et al. (2015, this volume) selected 10 large magnetic storms, with associated Dst minimum values less than or equal to -100 nT, for which high-latitude topside ionospheric electron density profiles are available from topside-sounder satellites. For these 10 storms, we performed a superposition of Dst and interplanetary parameters B, v, N(sub p) and T(sub p). We have found that two interplanetary parameters, namely B and v, are sufficient to reproduce Dst with correlation coefficient cc approximately 0.96 provided that the interplanetary parameter times are taken 0.15 days earlier than the associated Dst times. Thus we have found which part of the solar wind is responsible for each phase of the magnetic storm. This result is also verified for individual storms as well. The total duration of SRS (storm related structure in the solar wind) is 4 - 5 days which is the same as the associated Dst interval of the magnetic storm.

  1. Solar Wind Features Responsible for Magnetic Storms and Substorms During the Declining Phase of the Solar Cycle: 197

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsurutani, B.; Arballo, J.

    1994-01-01

    We examine interplanetary data and geomagnetic activity indices during 1974 when two long-lasting solar wind corotating streams existed. We find that only 3 major storms occurred during 1974, and all were associated with coronal mass ejections. Each high speed stream was led by a shock, so the three storms had sudden commencements. Two of the 1974 major storms were associated with shock compression of preexisting southward fields and one was caused by southward fields within a magnetic cloud. Corotating streams were responsible for recurring moderate to weak magnetic storms.

  2. What is the Relationship between the Solar Wind and Storms/Substorms?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fairfield, D. H.; Burlaga, L. F.

    1999-01-01

    The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) carried past the Earth by the solar wind has long been known to be the principal quantity that controls geomagnetic storms and substorms. Intervals of strong southward IMF with durations of at least a significant fraction of a day produce storms, while more typical, shorter intervals of less-intense southward fields produce substorms. The strong, long-duration southward fields are generally associated with coronal mass ejections and magnetic clouds or else they are produced by interplanetary dynamics initiated by fast solar wind flows that compress preexisting southward fields. Smaller, short-duration southward fields that occur on most days are related to long period waves, turbulence, or random variations in the IMF. Southward IMF enhances dayside reconnection between the IMF and the Earth's dipole with the reconnected field lines supplementing open field lines of the geomagnetic tail and producing an expanded polar cap and increased tail energy. Although the frequent storage of solar wind energy and its release during substorms is the most common mode of solar wind/magnetosphere interaction, under certain circumstances, steady southward IMF seems to produce intervals of relatively steady magnetosphere convection without substorms. During these latter times, the inner magnetosphere remains in a stressed tail-like state while the more distant magnetotail has larger northward field and more dipolar-like field lines. Recent evidence suggests that enhanced magnetosphere particle densities associated with enhanced solar wind densities allow more particles to be accelerated for the ring current, thus creating larger storms.

  3. (abstract) The Distant Tail Behavior During High Speed Solar Wind Streams and Magnetic Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, C. M.; Tsurutani, B. T.

    1996-01-01

    We have examined the ISEE-3 distant tail data during three intense magnetic storms and have identified the tail response to high speed solar wind streams, interplanetary magnetic clouds, and near-Earth storms.

  4. Space storms as natural hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. I. Dorman

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Eruptive activity of the Sun produces a chain of extreme geophysical events: high-speed solar wind, magnetic field disturbances in the interplanetary space and in the geomagnetic field and also intense fluxes of energetic particles. Space storms can potentially destroy spacecrafts, adversely affect astronauts and airline crew and human health on the Earth, lead to pipeline breaking, melt electricity transformers, and discontinue transmission. In this paper we deal with two consequences of space storms: (i rise in failures in the operation of railway devices and (ii rise in myocardial infarction and stroke incidences.

  5. Statistical uncertainty of extreme wind storms over Europe derived from a probabilistic clustering technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walz, Michael; Leckebusch, Gregor C.

    2016-04-01

    Extratropical wind storms pose one of the most dangerous and loss intensive natural hazards for Europe. However, due to only 50 years of high quality observational data, it is difficult to assess the statistical uncertainty of these sparse events just based on observations. Over the last decade seasonal ensemble forecasts have become indispensable in quantifying the uncertainty of weather prediction on seasonal timescales. In this study seasonal forecasts are used in a climatological context: By making use of the up to 51 ensemble members, a broad and physically consistent statistical base can be created. This base can then be used to assess the statistical uncertainty of extreme wind storm occurrence more accurately. In order to determine the statistical uncertainty of storms with different paths of progression, a probabilistic clustering approach using regression mixture models is used to objectively assign storm tracks (either based on core pressure or on extreme wind speeds) to different clusters. The advantage of this technique is that the entire lifetime of a storm is considered for the clustering algorithm. Quadratic curves are found to describe the storm tracks most accurately. Three main clusters (diagonal, horizontal or vertical progression of the storm track) can be identified, each of which have their own particulate features. Basic storm features like average velocity and duration are calculated and compared for each cluster. The main benefit of this clustering technique, however, is to evaluate if the clusters show different degrees of uncertainty, e.g. more (less) spread for tracks approaching Europe horizontally (diagonally). This statistical uncertainty is compared for different seasonal forecast products.

  6. Geomagnetic storm forecasting service StormFocus: 5 years online

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podladchikova, Tatiana; Petrukovich, Anatoly; Yermolaev, Yuri

    2018-04-01

    Forecasting geomagnetic storms is highly important for many space weather applications. In this study, we review performance of the geomagnetic storm forecasting service StormFocus during 2011-2016. The service was implemented in 2011 at SpaceWeather.Ru and predicts the expected strength of geomagnetic storms as measured by Dst index several hours ahead. The forecast is based on L1 solar wind and IMF measurements and is updated every hour. The solar maximum of cycle 24 is weak, so most of the statistics are on rather moderate storms. We verify quality of selection criteria, as well as reliability of real-time input data in comparison with the final values, available in archives. In real-time operation 87% of storms were correctly predicted while the reanalysis running on final OMNI data predicts successfully 97% of storms. Thus the main reasons for prediction errors are discrepancies between real-time and final data (Dst, solar wind and IMF) due to processing errors, specifics of datasets.

  7. Design and quantification of an extreme winter storm scenario for emergency preparedness and planning exercises in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, M.D.; Martin, Ralph F.; Hughes, M.; Das, T.; Neiman, P.; Cox, D.; Estes, G.; Reynolds, D.; Hartman, R.; Cayan, D.; Jones, L.

    2012-01-01

    The USGS Multihazards Project is working with numerous agencies to evaluate and plan for hazards and damages that could be caused by extreme winter storms impacting California. Atmospheric and hydrological aspects of a hypothetical storm scenario have been quantified as a basis for estimation of human, infrastructure, economic, and environmental impacts for emergency-preparedness and flood-planning exercises. In order to ensure scientific defensibility and necessary levels of detail in the scenario description, selected historical storm episodes were concatentated to describe a rapid arrival of several major storms over the state, yielding precipitation totals and runoff rates beyond those occurring during the individual historical storms. This concatenation allowed the scenario designers to avoid arbitrary scalings and is based on historical occasions from the 19th and 20th Centuries when storms have stalled over the state and when extreme storms have arrived in rapid succession. Dynamically consistent, hourly precipitation, temperatures, barometric pressures (for consideration of storm surges and coastal erosion), and winds over California were developed for the so-called ARkStorm scenario by downscaling the concatenated global records of the historical storm sequences onto 6- and 2-km grids using a regional weather model of January 1969 and February 1986 storm conditions. The weather model outputs were then used to force a hydrologic model to simulate ARkStorm runoff, to better understand resulting flooding risks. Methods used to build this scenario can be applied to other emergency, nonemergency and non-California applications. ?? 2011 The Author(s).

  8. The Ring Current Response to Solar and Interplanetary Storm Drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mouikis, C.; Kistler, L. M.; Bingham, S.; Kronberg, E. A.; Gkioulidou, M.; Huang, C. L.; Farrugia, C. J.

    2014-12-01

    The ring current responds differently to the different solar and interplanetary storm drivers such as coronal mass injections, (CME's), corotating interaction regions (CIR's), high-speed streamers and other structures. The resulting changes in the ring current particle pressure, in turn, change the global magnetic field, controlling the transport of the radiation belts. To quantitatively determine the field changes during a storm throughout the magnetosphere, it is necessary to understand the transport, sources and losses of the particles that contribute to the ring current. Because the measured ring current energy spectra depend not only on local processes, but also on the history of the ions along their entire drift path, measurements of ring current energy spectra at two or more locations can be used to strongly constrain the time dependent magnetic and electric fields. In this study we use data predominantly from the Cluster and the Van Allen Probes, covering more than a full solar cycle (from 2001 to 2014). For the period 2001-2012, the Cluster CODIF and RAPID measurements of the inner magnetosphere are the primary data set used to monitor the storm time ring current variability. After 2012, the Cluster data set complements the data from the Van Allen Probes HOPE and RBSPICE instruments, providing additional measurements from different MLT and L shells. Selected storms from this periods, allow us to study the ring current dynamics and pressure changes, as a function of L shell, magnetic local time, and the type of interplanetary disturbances.

  9. Low-dimensionality and predictability of solar wind and global magnetosphere during magnetic storms

    OpenAIRE

    Zivkovic, Tatjana; Rypdal, Kristoffer

    2011-01-01

    This article is part of Tatjana Živkovics' doctoral thesis. Available in Munin at http://hdl.handle.net/10037/3231 The storm index SYM-H, the solar wind velocity v, and interplanetary magnetic field Bz show no signatures of low-dimensional dynamics in quiet periods, but tests for determinism in the time series indicate that SYM-H exhibits a significant low-dimensional component during storm time, suggesting that self-organization takes place during magnetic storms. Even though our analysis...

  10. Overview of on-board measurements during solar storm periods

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Beck, P.; Dyer, C.; Fuller, N.; Hands, A.; Latocha, M.; Rollet, S.; Spurný, František

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 136, č. 4 (2009), s. 297-303 ISSN 0144-8420 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/09/0171 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10480505 Keywords : solar storm * aircraft crew * cosmic radiation Subject RIV: BG - Nuclear, Atomic and Molecular Physics, Colliders Impact factor: 0.707, year: 2009

  11. Long-Term Geomagnetically Induced Current Observations From New Zealand: Peak Current Estimates for Extreme Geomagnetic Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodger, Craig J.; Mac Manus, Daniel H.; Dalzell, Michael; Thomson, Alan W. P.; Clarke, Ellen; Petersen, Tanja; Clilverd, Mark A.; Divett, Tim

    2017-11-01

    Geomagnetically induced current (GIC) observations made in New Zealand over 14 years show induction effects associated with a rapidly varying horizontal magnetic field (dBH/dt) during geomagnetic storms. This study analyzes the GIC observations in order to estimate the impact of extreme storms as a hazard to the power system in New Zealand. Analysis is undertaken of GIC in transformer number six in Islington, Christchurch (ISL M6), which had the highest observed currents during the 6 November 2001 storm. Using previously published values of 3,000 nT/min as a representation of an extreme storm with 100 year return period, induced currents of 455 A were estimated for Islington (with the 95% confidence interval range being 155-605 A). For 200 year return periods using 5,000 nT/min, current estimates reach 755 A (confidence interval range 155-910 A). GIC measurements from the much shorter data set collected at transformer number 4 in Halfway Bush, Dunedin, (HWB T4), found induced currents to be consistently a factor of 3 higher than at Islington, suggesting equivalent extreme storm effects of 460-1,815 A (100 year return) and 460-2,720 A (200 year return). An estimate was undertaken of likely failure levels for single-phase transformers, such as HWB T4 when it failed during the 6 November 2001 geomagnetic storm, identifying that induced currents of 100 A can put such transformer types at risk of damage. Detailed modeling of the New Zealand power system is therefore required to put this regional analysis into a global context.

  12. The Distant Tail Behavior During High Speed Solar Wind Streams and Magnetic Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, C. M.; Tsurutani, B. T.

    1996-01-01

    We have examined the ISEE-3 distant tail data during three intense (Dststorms and have identified the tail response to high speed solar wind streams, interplanetary magnetic clouds, and near-Earth storms. The three storms have a peak Dst ranging from -150 to -220 nT, and occur on Jan. 9, Feb. 4, and Aug. 8, 1993.

  13. Solar flare effects and storm sudden commencement even in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    1998-05-08

    Variations in the three components of geomagnetic field were observed at the twenty-two geomagnetic Euro-African Observatories during the solar flare that occurred on the 6 May, 1998 at 0080UT and storm sudden commencement that took place on May 8, 1998 at 15.00 UT. The geomagnetic field on 6 May, 1998 was ...

  14. Current understanding of magnetic storms: Storm-substorm relationships

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kamide, Y.; Gonzalez, W.D.; Baumjohann, W.; Daglis, I.A.; Grande, M.; Joselyn, J.A.; Singer, H.J.; McPherron, R.L.; Phillips, J.L.; Reeves, E.G.; Rostoker, G.; Sharma, A.S.; Tsurutani, B.T.

    1998-01-01

    This paper attempts to summarize the current understanding of the storm/substorm relationship by clearing up a considerable amount of controversy and by addressing the question of how solar wind energy is deposited into and is dissipated in the constituent elements that are critical to magnetospheric and ionospheric processes during magnetic storms. (1) Four mechanisms are identified and discussed as the primary causes of enhanced electric fields in the interplanetary medium responsible for geomagnetic storms. It is pointed out that in reality, these four mechanisms, which are not mutually exclusive, but interdependent, interact differently from event to event. Interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and corotating interaction regions (CIRs) are found to be the primary phenomena responsible for the main phase of geomagnetic storms. The other two mechanisms, i.e., HILDCAA (high-intensity, long-duration, continuous auroral electrojet activity) and the so-called Russell-McPherron effect, work to make the ICME and CIR phenomena more geoeffective. The solar cycle dependence of the various sources in creating magnetic storms has yet to be quantitatively understood. (2) A serious controversy exists as to whether the successive occurrence of intense substorms plays a direct role in the energization of ring current particles or whether the enhanced electric field associated with southward IMF enhances the effect of substorm expansions. While most of the Dst variance during magnetic storms can be solely reproduced by changes in the large-scale electric field in the solar wind and the residuals are uncorrelated with substorms, recent satellite observations of the ring current constituents during the main phase of magnetic storms show the importance of ionospheric ions. This implies that ionospheric ions, which are associated with the frequent occurrence of intense substorms, are accelerated upward along magnetic field lines, contributing to the energy density of the

  15. Assessment of vulnerability to extreme flash floods in design storms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Eung Seok; Choi, Hyun Il

    2011-07-01

    There has been an increase in the occurrence of sudden local flooding of great volume and short duration caused by heavy or excessive rainfall intensity over a small area, which presents the greatest potential danger threat to the natural environment, human life, public health and property, etc. Such flash floods have rapid runoff and debris flow that rises quickly with little or no advance warning to prevent flood damage. This study develops a flash flood index through the average of the same scale relative severity factors quantifying characteristics of hydrographs generated from a rainfall-runoff model for the long-term observed rainfall data in a small ungauged study basin, and presents regression equations between rainfall characteristics and the flash flood index. The aim of this study is to develop flash flood index-duration-frequency relation curves by combining the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relation and the flash flood index from probability rainfall data in order to evaluate vulnerability to extreme flash floods in design storms. This study is an initial effort to quantify the flash flood severity of design storms for both existing and planned flood control facilities to cope with residual flood risks due to extreme flash floods that have ocurred frequently in recent years.

  16. Dynamics of the Solar Wind Electromagnetic Energy Transmission Into Magnetosphere during Large Geomagnetic Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuznetsova, Tamara; Laptukhov, Alexej; Petrov, Valery

    Causes of the geomagnetic activity (GA) in the report are divided into temporal changes of the solar wind parameters and the changes of the geomagnetic moment orientation relative directions of the solar wind electric and magnetic fields. Based on our previous study we concluded that a reconnection based on determining role of mutual orientation of the solar wind electric field and geomagnetic moment taking into account effects of the Earth's orbital and daily motions is the most effective compared with existing mechanisms. At present a reconnection as paradigma that has applications in broad fields of physics needs analysis of experimental facts to be developed. In terms of reconnection it is important not only mutual orientation of vectors describing physics of interaction region but and reconnection rate which depends from rate of energy flux to those regions where the reconnection is permitted. Applied to magnetosphere these regions first of all are dayside magnetopause and polar caps. Influence of rate of the energy flux to the lobe magnetopause (based on calculations of the Poyting electromagnetic flux component controlling the reconnection rate along the solar wind velocity Pv) on planetary GA (Dst, Kp indices) is investigated at different phases of geomagnetic storms. We study also the rate of energy flux to the polar caps during storms (based on calculations of the Poyting flux vector component along the geomagnetic moment Pm) and its influence on magnetic activity in the polar ionosphere: at the auroral zone (AU,AL indices). Results allow to evaluate contributions of high and low latitude sources of electromagnetic energy to the storm development and also to clear mechanism of the electromagnetic energy transmission from the solar wind to the magnetosphere. We evaluate too power of the solar wind electromagnetic energy during well-known large storms and compare result with power of the energy sources of other geophysical processes (atmosphere, ocean

  17. A Short-term ESPERTA-based Forecast Tool for Moderate-to-extreme Solar Proton Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laurenza, M.; Alberti, T.; Cliver, E. W.

    2018-04-01

    The ESPERTA (Empirical model for Solar Proton Event Real Time Alert) forecast tool has a Probability of Detection (POD) of 63% for all >10 MeV events with proton peak intensity ≥10 pfu (i.e., ≥S1 events, S1 referring to minor storms on the NOAA Solar Radiation Storms scale), from 1995 to 2014 with a false alarm rate (FAR) of 38% and a median (minimum) warning time (WT) of ∼4.8 (0.4) hr. The NOAA space weather scale includes four additional categories: moderate (S2), strong (S3), severe (S4), and extreme (S5). As S1 events have only minor impacts on HF radio propagation in the polar regions, the effective threshold for significant space radiation effects appears to be the S2 level (100 pfu), above which both biological and space operation impacts are observed along with increased effects on HF propagation in the polar regions. We modified the ESPERTA model to predict ≥S2 events and obtained a POD of 75% (41/55) and an FAR of 24% (13/54) for the 1995–2014 interval with a median (minimum) WT of ∼1.7 (0.2) hr based on predictions made at the time of the S1 threshold crossing. The improved performance of ESPERTA for ≥S2 events is a reflection of the big flare syndrome, which postulates that the measures of the various manifestations of eruptive solar flares increase as one considers increasingly larger events.

  18. Microstructured extremely thin absorber solar cells

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Biancardo, Matteo; Krebs, Frederik C

    2007-01-01

    In this paper we present the realization of extremely thin absorber (ETA) solar cells employing conductive glass substrates functionalized with TiO2 microstructures produced by embossing. Nanocrystalline or compact TiO2 films on Indium doped tin oxide (ITO) glass substrates were embossed by press......In this paper we present the realization of extremely thin absorber (ETA) solar cells employing conductive glass substrates functionalized with TiO2 microstructures produced by embossing. Nanocrystalline or compact TiO2 films on Indium doped tin oxide (ITO) glass substrates were embossed...

  19. Uplift of Ionospheric Oxygen Ions During Extreme Magnetic Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsurutani, Bruce T.; Mannucci, Anthony J.; Verkhoglyadova, Olga P.; Huba, Joseph; Lakhina, Gurbax S.

    2013-01-01

    Research reported earlier in literature was conducted relating to estimation of the ionospheric electrical field, which may have occurred during the September 1859 Carrington geomagnetic storm event, with regard to modern-day consequences. In this research, the NRL SAMI2 ionospheric code has been modified and applied the estimated electric field to the dayside ionosphere. The modeling was done at 15-minute time increments to track the general ionospheric changes. Although it has been known that magnetospheric electric fields get down into the ionosphere, it has been only in the last ten years that scientists have discovered that intense magnetic storm electric fields do also. On the dayside, these dawn-to-dusk directed electric fields lift the plasma (electrons and ions) up to higher altitudes and latitudes. As plasma is removed from lower altitudes, solar UV creates new plasma, so the total plasma in the ionosphere is increased several-fold. Thus, this complex process creates super-dense plasmas at high altitudes (from 700 to 1,000 km and higher).

  20. Spatial and temporal analysis of extreme sea level and storm surge events around the coastline of the UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haigh, Ivan D; Wadey, Matthew P; Wahl, Thomas; Ozsoy, Ozgun; Nicholls, Robert J; Brown, Jennifer M; Horsburgh, Kevin; Gouldby, Ben

    2016-12-06

    In this paper we analyse the spatial footprint and temporal clustering of extreme sea level and skew surge events around the UK coast over the last 100 years (1915-2014). The vast majority of the extreme sea level events are generated by moderate, rather than extreme skew surges, combined with spring astronomical high tides. We distinguish four broad categories of spatial footprints of events and the distinct storm tracks that generated them. There have been rare events when extreme levels have occurred along two unconnected coastal regions during the same storm. The events that occur in closest succession (sea level events from happening within 4-8 days. Finally, the 2013/14 season was highly unusual in the context of the last 100 years from an extreme sea level perspective.

  1. Solar sources of interplanetary southward B/sub z/ events responsible for major magnetic storms (1978--1979)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang, F.; Tsurutani, B.T.; Gonzalez, W.D.; Akasofu, S.I.; Smith, E.J.

    1989-01-01

    Tsurutani et al. [1988] analyzed the 10 intense interplanetary southward B/sub z/ events that led to major magnetic storms (Dst 3.0) are associated with prominence eruptions. For three of the five southward B/sub z/ events in which the driver gases are the causes of the intense southward field leading to magnetic storms, the photospheric fields of the solar sources have no dominant southward component, indicating the driver gas fields do not always result from a simple outward convection of solar magnetic fields. Finally we compare the solar events and their resulting interplanetary shocks and find that the standard solar parameters do not correlate with the strengths of the resulting shocks at 1 AU. The implications are discussed. copyright American Geophysical Union 1989

  2. Inclined Zenith Aurora over Kyoto on 17 September 1770: Graphical Evidence of Extreme Magnetic Storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kataoka, Ryuho; Iwahashi, Kiyomi

    2017-10-01

    Red auroras were observed in Japan during an extreme magnetic storm that occurred on 17 September 1770. We show new evidence that the red aurora extended toward the zenith of Kyoto around midnight. The basic appearance of the historical painting of the red aurora is geometrically reproduced based on the inclination of the local magnetic field and a detailed description in a newly discovered diary. The presence of the inclined zenith aurora over Kyoto suggests that the intensity of the September 1770 magnetic storm is comparable to, or slightly larger than that of the September 1859 Carrington storm.

  3. EFFECTS OF ALFVEN WAVES ON ELECTRON CYCLOTRON MASER EMISSION IN CORONAL LOOPS AND SOLAR TYPE I RADIO STORMS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhao, G. Q.; Chen, L.; Wu, D. J. [Purple Mountain Observatory, CAS, Nanjing 210008 (China); Yan, Y. H., E-mail: djwu@pmo.ac.cn [Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, CAS, Beijing 100012 (China)

    2013-06-10

    Solar type I radio storms are long-lived radio emissions from the solar atmosphere. It is believed that these type I storms are produced by energetic electrons trapped within a closed magnetic structure and are characterized by a high ordinary (O) mode polarization. However, the microphysical nature of these emissions is still an open problem. Recently, Wu et al. found that Alfven waves (AWs) can significantly influence the basic physics of wave-particle interactions by modifying the resonant condition. Taking the effects of AWs into account, this work investigates electron cyclotron maser emission driven by power-law energetic electrons with a low-energy cutoff distribution, which are trapped in coronal loops by closed solar magnetic fields. The results show that the emission is dominated by the O mode. It is proposed that this O mode emission may possibly be responsible for solar type I radio storms.

  4. A European precipitation index for extreme rain-storm and flash flood early warning

    OpenAIRE

    ALFIERI LORENZO; THIELEN DEL POZO Jutta

    2012-01-01

    Extreme rain-storms are known for triggering devastating flash floods in various regions of Europe and particularly along the Mediterranean coasts. Despite recent notable advances in weather forecasting, most operational early warning systems for extreme rainstorms and flash floods are based on rainfall estimation, rather than on forecasts. As a result, warning lead times are bounded to few hours and warnings are usually issued when the event is already taking place. This work proposes a n...

  5. The solar wind control of electron fluxes in geostationary orbit during magnetic storms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Popov, G.V.; Degtyarev, V.I.; Sheshukov, S.S.; Chudnenko, S.E.

    1999-01-01

    The dynamics of electron fluxes (with energies from 30 to 1360 keV) in geostationary orbit during magnetic storms was investigated on the basis of LANL spacecraft 1976-059 and 1977-007 data. Thirty-seven magnetic storms with distinct onsets from the time interval July 1976-December 1978 were used in the analysis. A treatment of experimental data involved the moving averaging and the overlapping epoch method. The smoothed component of electron fluxes represents mainly trapped electrons and shows their strong dependence on the solar wind velocity. The time lag between a smoothed electron flux and the solar wind velocity increases with electron energy reflecting dynamics of the inner magnetosphere filling with trapped energetic electrons originating from substorm injection regions located not far outside geostationary orbit

  6. Exceptional winter storms affecting Western Iberia and extremes: diagnosis, modelling and multi-model ensemble projection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liberato, M. L. R.; Pinto, J. G.; Gil, V.; Ramos, A. M.; Trigo, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    Extratropical cyclones dominate autumn and winter weather over Western Europe and particularly over the Iberian Peninsula. Intense, high-impact storms are one of the major weather risks in the region, mostly due to the simultaneous occurrence of high winds and extreme precipitation events. These intense extratropical cyclones may result in windstorm damage, flooding and coastal storm surges, with large societal impacts. In Portugal, due to the extensive human use of coastal areas, the natural and built coastal environments have been amongst the most affected. In this work several historical winter storms that adversely affected the Western Iberian Peninsula are studied in detail in order to contribute to an improved assessment of the characteristics of these events. The diagnosis has been performed based on instrumental daily precipitation and wind records, on satellite images, on reanalysis data and through model simulations. For several examples the synoptic evolution and upper-level dynamics analysis of physical processes controlling the life cycle of extratropical storms associated with the triggering of the considered extreme events has also been accomplished. Furthermore, the space-time variability of the exceptionally severe storms affecting Western Iberia over the last century and under three climate scenarios (the historical simulation, the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios) is presented. These studies contribute to improving the knowledge of atmospheric dynamics controlling the life cycle of midlatitude storms associated to severe weather (precipitation and wind) in the Iberian Peninsula. AcknowledgementsThis work is supported by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT), Portugal, through project UID/GEO/50019/2013 - Instituto Dom Luiz. A. M. Ramos is also supported by a FCT postdoctoral grant (FCT/DFRH/SFRH/BPD/84328/2012).

  7. Extreme coastal erosion enhanced by anomalous extratropical storm wave direction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harley, Mitchell D; Turner, Ian L; Kinsela, Michael A; Middleton, Jason H; Mumford, Peter J; Splinter, Kristen D; Phillips, Matthew S; Simmons, Joshua A; Hanslow, David J; Short, Andrew D

    2017-07-20

    Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are the primary driver of large-scale episodic beach erosion along coastlines in temperate regions. However, key drivers of the magnitude and regional variability in rapid morphological changes caused by ETCs at the coast remain poorly understood. Here we analyze an unprecedented dataset of high-resolution regional-scale morphological response to an ETC that impacted southeast Australia, and evaluate the new observations within the context of an existing long-term coastal monitoring program. This ETC was characterized by moderate intensity (for this regional setting) deepwater wave heights, but an anomalous wave direction approximately 45 degrees more counter-clockwise than average. The magnitude of measured beach volume change was the largest in four decades at the long-term monitoring site and, at the regional scale, commensurate with that observed due to extreme North Atlantic hurricanes. Spatial variability in morphological response across the study region was predominantly controlled by alongshore gradients in storm wave energy flux and local coastline alignment relative to storm wave direction. We attribute the severity of coastal erosion observed due to this ETC primarily to its anomalous wave direction, and call for greater research on the impacts of changing storm wave directionality in addition to projected future changes in wave heights.

  8. Predicting the occurrence of super-storms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Srivastava

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available A comparative study of five super-storms (Dst<-300 nT of the current solar cycle after the launch of SoHO, to identify solar and interplanetary variables that influence the magnitude of resulting geomagnetic storms, is described. Amongst solar variables, the initial speed of a CME is considered the most reliable predictor of the strength of the associated geomagnetic storm because fast mass ejections are responsible for building up the ram pressure at the Earth's magnetosphere. However, although most of the super-storms studied were associated with high speed CMEs, the Dst index of the resulting geomagnetic storms varied between -300 to -472 nT. The most intense storm of 20 November 2003, (Dst ~ -472 nT had its source in a comparatively smaller active region and was associated with a relatively weaker, M-class flare while all other super-storms had their origins in large active regions and were associated with strong X-class flares. However, this superstorm did not show any associated extraordinary solar and interplanetary characteristics. The study also reveals the challenge in the reliable prediction of the magnitude of a geomagnetic storm from solar and interplanetary variables.

  9. The solar activity, magnetic storms and their effects on biological systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salakhitdinova, M.K.; Yusupov, A.A.

    2004-01-01

    In the present time much attention is spent on the electromagnetic waves, solar radiation and magnetic storms on biological systems, including on person. However, there are few publications describing the mechanism of these influences on human. First of all it is necessary to point out that electromagnetic waves, the flow of particles in space and magnetic storms, acting on person human-all is connected with biophysical processes. So approach to influence of these factors on organism follows the processes of influence of these waves on bio system. Magnetic storms are phenomena continuously connected with solar activity. Investigation of cosmic space has intensified the practical importance of the problem of interaction with natural factors of external ambience. Much attention deserves the cosmic radiation, geomagnetic field, elements of climate and weathers. However the mechanism of bio tropic action of these factors is not enough studied. Beginning XXI century was already signified the successes in investigation of Mars. The Space shuttles 'Spirit' and 'Opportunity' successfully have carried out some work on examining and finding of water on Mars. A flight of person to Mars is being considered. One of the important mechanisms of influence on human organism is, in our opinion, the rising of the resonance at coincidence of frequencies and their more important factor is a phenomena of electromagnetic induction and forming the radicals in the organism. (author)

  10. Pushing the Envelope of Extreme Space Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesnell, W. D.

    2014-12-01

    Extreme Space Weather events are large solar flares or geomagnetic storms, which can cost billions of dollars to recover from. We have few examples of such events; the Carrington Event (the solar superstorm) is one of the few that had superlatives in three categories: size of solar flare, drop in Dst, and amplitude of aa. Kepler observations show that stars similar to the Sun can have flares releasing millions of times more energy than an X-class flare. These flares and the accompanying coronal mass ejections could strongly affect the atmosphere surrounding a planet. What level of solar activity would be necessary to strongly affect the atmosphere of the Earth? Can we map out the envelope of space weather along the evolution of the Sun? What would space weather look like if the Sun stopped producing a magnetic field? To what extreme should Space Weather go? These are the extremes of Space Weather explored in this talk.

  11. A dynamic system to forecast ionospheric storm disturbances based on solar wind conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. R. Cander

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available For the reliable performance of technologically advanced radio communications systems under geomagnetically disturbed conditions, the forecast and modelling of the ionospheric response during storms is a high priority. The ionospheric storm forecasting models that are currently in operation have shown a high degree of reliability during quiet conditions, but they have proved inadequate during storm events. To improve their prediction accuracy, we have to take advantage of the deeper understanding in ionospheric storm dynamics that is currently available, indicating a correlation between the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF disturbances and the qualitative signature of ionospheric storm disturbances at middle latitude stations. In this paper we analyse observations of the foF2 critical frequency parameter from one mid-latitude European ionospheric station (Chilton in conjunction with observations of IMF parameters (total magnitude, Bt and Bz-IMF component from the ACE spacecraft mission for eight storm events. The determination of the time delay in the ionospheric response to the interplanetary medium disturbances leads to significant results concerning the forecast of the ionospheric storms onset and their development during the first 24 h. In this way the real-time ACE observations of the solar wind parameters may be used in the development of a real-time dynamic ionospheric storm model with adequate accuracy.

  12. NARX neural network Prediction of SYMH and ASYH indices for geomagnetic storms of solar cycle 24 including recent St. Patrick's day, 2015 storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhaskar, A. T.; Vichare, G.

    2017-12-01

    Here, an attempt is made to develop a prediction model for SYMH and ASYH geomagnetic indices using Artificial Neural Network (ANN). SYMH and ASYH indices represent longitudinal symmetric and asymmetric component of the ring current. The ring current state depends on its past conditions therefore, it is necessary to consider its history for prediction. To account this effect Nonlinear Autoregressive Network with eXogenous inputs (NARX) is implemented. This network considers input history of 30 minutes and output feedback of 120 minutes. Solar wind parameters mainly velocity, density and interplanetary magnetic field are used as inputs. SYMH and ASYH indices during geomagnetic storms of 1998-2013, having minimum SYMH training two independent networks. We present the prediction of SYMH and ASYH indices during 9 geomagnetic storms of solar cycle 24 including the recent largest storm occurred on St. Patrick's day, 2015. The present prediction model reproduces the entire time profile of SYMH and ASYH indices along with small variations of 10-30 minutes to good extent within noise level, indicating significant contribution of interplanetary sources and past state of the magnetosphere. However, during the main phase of major storms, residuals (observed-modeled) are found to be large, suggesting influence of internal factors such as magnetospheric processes.

  13. Predicting the occurrence of super-storms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Srivastava

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available A comparative study of five super-storms (Dst<-300 nT of the current solar cycle after the launch of SoHO, to identify solar and interplanetary variables that influence the magnitude of resulting geomagnetic storms, is described. Amongst solar variables, the initial speed of a CME is considered the most reliable predictor of the strength of the associated geomagnetic storm because fast mass ejections are responsible for building up the ram pressure at the Earth's magnetosphere. However, although most of the super-storms studied were associated with high speed CMEs, the Dst index of the resulting geomagnetic storms varied between -300 to -472 nT. The most intense storm of 20 November 2003, (Dst ~ -472 nT had its source in a comparatively smaller active region and was associated with a relatively weaker, M-class flare while all other super-storms had their origins in large active regions and were associated with strong X-class flares. However, this superstorm did not show any associated extraordinary solar and interplanetary characteristics. The study also reveals the challenge in the reliable prediction of the magnitude of a geomagnetic storm from solar and interplanetary variables.

  14. NASA seeks to revive lost probe that traced solar storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voosen, Paul

    2018-02-01

    NASA's Imager for Magnetopause-to-Aurora Global Exploration (IMAGE), a satellite that failed in 2005, was recently discovered to be reactivated by an amateur astronomer. Until its demise, IMAGE provided unparalleled views of solar storms crashing into Earth's magnetosphere, a capability that has not been replaced since. The amateur astronomer was on the search for Zuma, a classified U.S. satellite that's believed to have failed after launch. He instead discovered IMAGE, broadcasting again, likely thanks to a reboot that occurred after its batteries drained during a past solar eclipse. NASA scientists are now working to communicate with the satellite in the hopes of reviving its six scientific instruments.

  15. XBeach-G: a tool for predicting gravel barrier response to extreme storm conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masselink, Gerd; Poate, Tim; McCall, Robert; Roelvink, Dano; Russell, Paul; Davidson, Mark

    2014-05-01

    Gravel beaches protect low-lying back-barrier regions from flooding during storm events and their importance to society is widely acknowledged. Unfortunately, breaching and extensive storm damage has occurred at many gravel sites and this is likely to increase as a result of sea-level rise and enhanced storminess due to climate change. Limited scientific guidance is currently available to provide beach managers with operational management tools to predict the response of gravel beaches to storms. The New Understanding and Prediction of Storm Impacts on Gravel beaches (NUPSIG) project aims to improve our understanding of storm impacts on gravel coastal environments and to develop a predictive capability by modelling these impacts. The NUPSIG project uses a 5-pronged approach to address its aim: (1) analyse hydrodynamic data collected during a proto-type laboratory experiment on a gravel beach; (2) collect hydrodynamic field data on a gravel beach under a range of conditions, including storm waves with wave heights up to 3 m; (3) measure swash dynamics and beach response on 10 gravel beaches during extreme wave conditions with wave heights in excess of 3 m; (4) use the data collected under 1-3 to develop and validate a numerical model to model hydrodynamics and morphological response of gravel beaches under storm conditions; and (5) develop a tool for end-users, based on the model formulated under (4), for predicting storm response of gravel beaches and barriers. The aim of this presentation is to present the key results of the NUPSIG project and introduce the end-user tool for predicting storm response on gravel beaches. The model is based on the numerical model XBeach, and different forcing scenarios (wave and tides), barrier configurations (dimensions) and sediment characteristics are easily uploaded for model simulations using a Graphics User Interface (GUI). The model can be used to determine the vulnerability of gravel barriers to storm events, but can also be

  16. 3DCORE: Forward modeling of solar storm magnetic flux ropes for space weather prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Möstl, C.; Amerstorfer, T.; Palmerio, E.; Isavnin, A.; Farrugia, C. J.; Lowder, C.; Winslow, R. M.; Donnerer, J. M.; Kilpua, E. K. J.; Boakes, P. D.

    2018-05-01

    3DCORE forward models solar storm magnetic flux ropes called 3-Dimensional Coronal Rope Ejection (3DCORE). The code is able to produce synthetic in situ observations of the magnetic cores of solar coronal mass ejections sweeping over planets and spacecraft. Near Earth, these data are taken currently by the Wind, ACE and DSCOVR spacecraft. Other suitable spacecraft making these kind of observations carrying magnetometers in the solar wind were MESSENGER, Venus Express, MAVEN, and even Helios.

  17. Coastal flooding: impact of waves on storm surge during extremes – a case study for the German Bight

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Staneva

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available This study addresses the impact of wind, waves, tidal forcing and baroclinicity on the sea level of the German Bight during extreme storm events. The role of wave-induced processes, tides and baroclinicity is quantified, and the results are compared with in situ measurements and satellite data. A coupled high-resolution modelling system is used to simulate wind waves, the water level and the three-dimensional hydrodynamics. The models used are the wave model WAM and the circulation model GETM. The two-way coupling is performed via the OASIS3-MCT coupler. The effects of wind waves on sea level variability are studied, accounting for wave-dependent stress, wave-breaking parameterization and wave-induced effects on vertical mixing. The analyses of the coupled model results reveal a closer match with observations than for the stand-alone circulation model, especially during the extreme storm Xaver in December 2013. The predicted surge of the coupled model is significantly enhanced during extreme storm events when considering wave–current interaction processes. This wave-dependent approach yields a contribution of more than 30 % in some coastal areas during extreme storm events. The contribution of a fully three-dimensional model compared with a two-dimensional barotropic model showed up to 20 % differences in the water level of the coastal areas of the German Bight during Xaver. The improved skill resulting from the new developments justifies further use of the coupled-wave and three-dimensional circulation models in coastal flooding predictions.

  18. Statistical Characteristics of Solar Wind Dynamic Pressure Enhancements During Geomagnetic Storms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C.-R. Choi

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Solar wind dynamic pressure enhancements are known to cause various types of disturbances to the magnetosphere. In particular, dynamic pressure enhancements may affect the evolution of magnetic storms when they occur during storm times. In this paper, we have investigated the statistical significance and features of dynamic pressure enhancements during magnetic storm times. For the investigation, we have used a total of 91 geomagnetic storms for 2001-2003, for which the Dst minimum (Dst_min is below -50 nT. Also, we have imposed a set of selection criteria for a pressure enhancement to be considered an event: The main selection criterion is that the pressure increases by ≥50% or ≥3nPa within 30 min and remains to be elevated for 10 min or longer. For our statistical analysis, we define the storm time to be the interval from the main Dst decrease, through Dst_min, to the point where the Dst index recovers by 50%. Our main results are summarized as follows. (i ~81% of the studied storms indicate at least one event of pressure enhancements. When averaged over all the 91 storms, the occurrence rate is 4.5 pressure enhancement events per storm and 0.15 pressure enhancement events per hour. (ii The occurrence rate of the pressure enhancements is about three times higher for CME-driven storm times than for CIR-driven storm times. (iii Only 21.1% of the pressure enhancements show a clear association with an interplanetary shock. (iv A large number of the pressure enhancement events are accompanied with a simultaneous change of IMF By and/or Bz: For example, 73.5% of the pressure enhancement events are associated with an IMF change of either |∆Bz|>2nT or |∆By|>2nT. This last finding suggests that one should consider possible interplay effects between the simultaneous pressure and IMF changes in many situations.

  19. Substorms during different storm phases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Partamies

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available After the deep solar minimum at the end of the solar cycle 23, a small magnetic storm occurred on 20–26 January 2010. The Dst (disturbance storm time index reached the minimum of −38 nT on 20 January and the prolonged recovery that followed the main phase that lasted for about 6 days. In this study, we concentrate on three substorms that took place (1 just prior to the storm, (2 during the main phase of the storm, and (3 at the end of the recovery of the storm. We analyse the solar wind conditions from the solar wind monitoring spacecraft, the duration and intensity of the substorm events as well as the behaviour of the electrojet currents from the ground magnetometer measurements. We compare the precipitation characteristics of the three substorms. The results show that the F-region electron density enhancements and dominant green and red auroral emission of the substorm activity during the storm recovery resembles average isolated substorm precipitation. However, the energy dissipated, even at the very end of a prolonged storm recovery, is very large compared to the typical energy content of isolated substorms. In the case studied here, the dissipation of the excess energy is observed over a 3-h long period of several consecutive substorm intensifications. Our findings suggest that the substorm energy dissipation varies between the storm phases.

  20. The Future of Geomagnetic Storm Predictions: Implications from Recent Solar and Interplanetary Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsurutani, B. T.; Gonzalez, W. D.

    1995-01-01

    Within the last 7-8 years, there has been a substantial growth in out knowledge of the solar and interplanetary causes of geomagnetic storms at Earth. This review article will not attempt to cover all of the work done during this period. This can be found elsewhere. Our emphasis here will be on recent efforts that expose important, presently unanswered questions that must be addressed and solved before true predictability of storms can be possible. Hopefully, this article will encourage some readers to join this effort and perhaps make major contributions to the field.

  1. Increasing frequency of extremely severe cyclonic storms over the Arabian Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murakami, Hiroyuki; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Underwood, Seth

    2017-12-01

    In 2014 and 2015, post-monsoon extremely severe cyclonic storms (ESCS)—defined by the WMO as tropical storms with lifetime maximum winds greater than 46 m s-1—were first observed over the Arabian Sea (ARB), causing widespread damage. However, it is unknown to what extent this abrupt increase in post-monsoon ESCSs can be linked to anthropogenic warming, natural variability, or stochastic behaviour. Here, using a suite of high-resolution global coupled model experiments that accurately simulate the climatological distribution of ESCSs, we show that anthropogenic forcing has likely increased the probability of late-season ECSCs occurring in the ARB since the preindustrial era. However, the specific timing of observed late-season ESCSs in 2014 and 2015 was likely due to stochastic processes. It is further shown that natural variability played a minimal role in the observed increase of ESCSs. Thus, continued anthropogenic forcing will further amplify the risk of cyclones in the ARB, with corresponding socio-economic implications.

  2. Storm surge climatology report

    OpenAIRE

    Horsburgh, Kevin; Williams, Joanne; Cussack, Caroline

    2017-01-01

    Any increase in flood frequency or severity due to sea level rise or changes in storminess would adversely impact society. It is crucial to understand the physical drivers of extreme storm surges to have confidence in the datasets used for extreme sea level statistics. We will refine and improve methods to the estimation of extreme sea levels around Europe and more widely. We will do so by developing a comprehensive world picture of storm surge distribution (including extremes) for both tropi...

  3. Interplanetary radio storms. II - Emission levels and solar wind speed in the range 0.05-0.8 AU

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bougeret, J.-L.; Fainberg, J.; Stone, R. G.

    1984-01-01

    Storms of interplanetary type III radio bursts (IP storms) are commonly observed in the interplanetary medium by the ISEE-3 radio instrument. This instrument has the capability of accurately determining the arrival direction of the radio emission. At each observing frequency, the storm radio sources are tracked as they cross the line-of-sight to the sun. Using a simple model, the emission levels are determined at a number of radio frequencies for four separate storms. The IP storm radiation is found to occur in regions of enhanced density at levels of 0.05 to 0.8 AU. The density in these enhancements falls off faster than R(-2). The solar wind speed in the storm region is also measured. The analysis is consistent with steady conditions in the storm region during a few days around the III storm burst radio emission at the harmonic of the local plasma frequency.

  4. Energetics of small electron acceleration episodes in the solar corona from radio noise storm observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Tomin; Subramanian, Prasad

    2018-05-01

    Observations of radio noise storms can act as sensitive probes of nonthermal electrons produced in small acceleration events in the solar corona. We use data from noise storm episodes observed jointly by the Giant Metrewave Radio Telescope (GMRT) and the Nancay Radioheliograph (NRH) to study characteristics of the nonthermal electrons involved in the emission. We find that the electrons carry 1021 to 1024 erg/s, and that the energy contained in the electrons producing a representative noise storm burst ranges from 1020 to 1023 ergs. These results are a direct probe of the energetics involved in ubiquitous, small-scale electron acceleration episodes in the corona, and could be relevant to a nanoflare-like scenario for coronal heating.

  5. Beyond Traditional Extreme Value Theory Through a Metastatistical Approach: Lessons Learned from Precipitation, Hurricanes, and Storm Surges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marani, M.; Zorzetto, E.; Hosseini, S. R.; Miniussi, A.; Scaioni, M.

    2017-12-01

    The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution is widely adopted irrespective of the properties of the stochastic process generating the extreme events. However, GEV presents several limitations, both theoretical (asymptotic validity for a large number of events/year or hypothesis of Poisson occurrences of Generalized Pareto events), and practical (fitting uses just yearly maxima or a few values above a high threshold). Here we describe the Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution (MEVD, Marani & Ignaccolo, 2015), which relaxes asymptotic or Poisson/GPD assumptions and makes use of all available observations. We then illustrate the flexibility of the MEVD by applying it to daily precipitation, hurricane intensity, and storm surge magnitude. Application to daily rainfall from a global raingauge network shows that MEVD estimates are 50% more accurate than those from GEV when the recurrence interval of interest is much greater than the observational period. This makes MEVD suited for application to satellite rainfall observations ( 20 yrs length). Use of MEVD on TRMM data yields extreme event patterns that are in better agreement with surface observations than corresponding GEV estimates.Applied to the HURDAT2 Atlantic hurricane intensity dataset, MEVD significantly outperforms GEV estimates of extreme hurricanes. Interestingly, the Generalized Pareto distribution used for "ordinary" hurricane intensity points to the existence of a maximum limit wind speed that is significantly smaller than corresponding physically-based estimates. Finally, we applied the MEVD approach to water levels generated by tidal fluctuations and storm surges at a set of coastal sites spanning different storm-surge regimes. MEVD yields accurate estimates of large quantiles and inferences on tail thickness (fat vs. thin) of the underlying distribution of "ordinary" surges. In summary, the MEVD approach presents a number of theoretical and practical advantages, and outperforms traditional

  6. Geomagnetic storms and their sources on the sun:the rising phase of the sunspot cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takao Saito

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Solar phenomena, including solar flares and coronal holes, are considered in the context of a NEWS coordinate system, obtained by application of the heliographic and heliomagnetic coordinate systems to the solar latitude and longitude, respectively. By expressing the occurrence of solar phenomena in terms of NEWS coordinates, we discovered that solar flares tend to converge in the NE and SW quadrants of the solar disk, where they act as sources of sporadic storms. Meanwhile, coronal holes converge to solar longitudes of 0° and 180°, where they are sources of recurrent storms. Because of their concentration in the NE- and SW-quadrants, this correlation is referred to as the 'NEWS law'. The neutral line of the source surface shows a beautiful single wave in its declining phase, while it tends to show a double wave in the rising phase. Solar rotation numbers 2118 to 2119, where the neutral line exhibited two complicated asymmetric waves in both the N-S and S-W directions, were chosen for detailed analysis. Notwithstanding such an extremely complicated case, the NEWS law is satisfied when the double wave is separated into its two single-wave parts.

  7. Changes in the High-Latitude Topside Ionospheric Vertical Electron-Density Profiles in Response to Solar-Wind Perturbations During Large Magnetic Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benson, Robert F.; Fainberg, Joseph; Osherovich, Vladimir; Truhlik, Vladimir; Wang, Yongli; Arbacher, Becca

    2011-01-01

    The latest results from an investigation to establish links between solar-wind and topside-ionospheric parameters will be presented including a case where high-latitude topside electron-density Ne(h) profiles indicated dramatic rapid changes in the scale height during the main phase of a large magnetic storm (Dst wind data obtained from the NASA OMNIWeb database indicated that the magnetic storm was due to a magnetic cloud. This event is one of several large magnetic storms being investigated during the interval from 1965 to 1984 when both solar-wind and digital topside ionograms, from either Alouette-2, ISIS-1, or ISIS-2, are potentially available.

  8. Non-storm irregular variation of the Dst index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Nakano

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The Dst index has a long-term variation that is not associated with magnetic storms. We estimated the long-term non-storm component of the Dst variation by removing the short-term variation related to magnetic storms. The results indicate that the variation of the non-storm component includes not only a seasonal variation but also an irregular variation. The irregular long-term variation is likely to be due to an anti-correlation with the long-term variation of solar-wind activity. In particular, a clear anti-correlation is observed between the non-storm component of Dst and the long-term variation of the solar-wind dynamic pressure. This means that in the long term, the Dst index tends to increase when the solar-wind dynamic pressure decreases. We interpret this anti-correlation as an indication that the long-term non-storm variation of Dst is influenced by the tail current variation. The long-term variation of the solar-wind dynamic pressure controls the plasma sheet thermal pressure, and the change of the plasma sheet thermal pressure would cause the non-storm tail current variation, resulting in the non-storm variation of Dst.

  9. IRI STORM validation over Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haralambous, Haris; Vryonides, Photos; Demetrescu, Crişan; Dobrică, Venera; Maris, Georgeta; Ionescu, Diana

    2014-05-01

    The International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model includes an empirical Storm-Time Ionospheric Correction Model (STORM) extension to account for storm-time changes of the F layer peak electron density (NmF2) during increased geomagnetic activity. This model extension is driven by past history values of the geomagnetic index ap (The magnetic index applied is the integral of ap over the previous 33 hours with a weighting function deduced from physically based modeling) and it adjusts the quiet-time F layer peak electron density (NmF2) to account for storm-time changes in the ionosphere. In this investigation manually scaled hourly values of NmF2 measured during the main and recovery phases of selected storms for the maximum solar activity period of the current solar cycle are compared with the predicted IRI-2012 NmF2 over European ionospheric stations using the STORM model option. Based on the comparison a subsequent performance evaluation of the STORM option during this period is quantified.

  10. Extreme Wind, Rain, Storm Surge, and Flooding: Why Hurricane Impacts are Difficult to Forecast?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, S. S.

    2017-12-01

    The 2017 hurricane season is estimated as one of the costliest in the U.S. history. The damage and devastation caused by Hurricane Harvey in Houston, Irma in Florida, and Maria in Puerto Rico are distinctly different in nature. The complexity of hurricane impacts from extreme wind, rain, storm surge, and flooding presents a major challenge in hurricane forecasting. A detailed comparison of the storm impacts from Harvey, Irma, and Maria will be presented using observations and state-of-the-art new generation coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean hurricane forecast model. The author will also provide an overview on what we can expect in terms of advancement in science and technology that can help improve hurricane impact forecast in the near future.

  11. Extreme fluxes in solar energetic particle events: Methodological and physical limitations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miroshnichenko, L.I.; Nymmik, R.A.

    2014-01-01

    In this study, all available data on the largest solar proton events (SPEs), or extreme solar energetic particle (SEP) events, for the period from 1561 up to now are analyzed. Under consideration are the observational, methodological and physical problems of energy-spectrum presentation for SEP fluxes (fluences) near the Earth's orbit. Special attention is paid to the study of the distribution function for extreme fluences of SEPs by their sizes. The authors present advances in at least three aspects: 1) a form of the distribution function that was previously obtained from the data for three cycles of solar activity has been completely confirmed by the data for 41 solar cycles; 2) early estimates of extremely large fluences in the past have been critically revised, and their values were found to be overestimated; and 3) extremely large SEP fluxes are shown to obey a probabilistic distribution, so the concept of an “upper limit flux” does not carry any strict physical sense although it serves as an important empirical restriction. SEP fluxes may only be characterized by the relative probabilities of their appearance, and there is a sharp break in the spectrum in the range of large fluences (or low probabilities). It is emphasized that modern observational data and methods of investigation do not allow, for the present, the precise resolution of the problem of the spectrum break or the estimation of the maximum potentialities of solar accelerator(s). This limitation considerably restricts the extrapolation of the obtained results to the past and future for application to the epochs with different levels of solar activity. - Highlights: • All available data on the largest solar proton events (SPEs) are analyzed. • Distribution function obtained for 3 last cycles is confirmed for 41 solar cycles. • Estimates of extremely large fluences in the past are found to be overestimated. • Extremely large SEP fluxes are shown to obey a probabilistic distribution.

  12. Mathematical modeling of the moderate storm on 28 February 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eroglu, Emre

    2018-04-01

    The sun is an active star with plasma-filled prominences. The sudden ejection of the solar plasma creates storms in the form of bursting or spraying. A magnetospheric storm is a typical phenomenon that lasts 1-3 days and involves all magnetosphere from the earth's ionosphere to the magnetotail. The storms are known by different categorical names such as weak, moderate, strong, intense. One of these is the moderate geomagnetic storm on February 28, 2008, which occurred in the 24th solar cycle. The reason for discussing this storm is that it is the first moderate storm in the 24th solar cycle. In this study, we investigate the storm and entered the 24th solar cycle. The correlation among the parametres has been investigated via statistics. The solar wind parameters and the zonal geomagnetic indices have been analyzed separately and then the interaction with each other has been exhibited. The author has concluded the work with two new nonlinear mathematical models. These explain the storm with 79.1% and 87.5% accuracy.

  13. Regional Risk Assessment for the analysis of the risks related to storm surge extreme events in the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizzi, Jonathan; Torresan, Silvia; Gallina, Valentina; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2013-04-01

    Europe's coast faces a variety of climate change threats from extreme high tides, storm surges and rising sea levels. In particular, it is very likely that mean sea level rise will contribute to upward trends in extreme coastal high water levels, thus posing higher risks to coastal locations currently experiencing coastal erosion and inundation processes. In 2007 the European Commission approved the Flood Directive (2007/60/EC), which has the main purpose to establish a framework for the assessment and management of flood risks for inland and coastal areas, thus reducing the adverse consequences for human health, the environment, cultural heritage and economic activities. Improvements in scientific understanding are thus needed to inform decision-making about the best strategies for mitigating and managing storm surge risks in coastal areas. The CLIMDAT project is aimed at improving the understanding of the risks related to extreme storm surge events in the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea (Italy), considering potential climate change scenarios. The project implements a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology developed in the FP7 KULTURisk project for the assessment of physical/environmental impacts posed by flood hazards and employs the DEcision support SYstem for Coastal climate change impact assessment (DESYCO) for the application of the methodology to the case study area. The proposed RRA methodology is aimed at the identification and prioritization of targets and areas at risk from water-related natural hazards in the considered region at the meso-scale. To this aim, it integrates information about extreme storm surges with bio-geophysical and socio-economic information (e.g. vegetation cover, slope, soil type, population density) of the analyzed receptors (i.e. people, economic activities, cultural heritages, natural and semi-natural systems). Extreme storm surge hazard scenarios are defined using tide gauge time series coming from 28 tide gauge

  14. Interplanetary radio storms. 2: Emission levels and solar wind speed in the range 0.05-0.8 AU

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bougeret, J. L.; Fainberg, J.; Stone, R. G.

    1982-01-01

    Storms of interplanetary type III radio bursts (IP storms) are commonly observed in the interplanetry medium by the ISEE-3 radio instrument. This instrument has the capability of accurately determining the arrival direction of the radio emission. At each observing frequency, the storm radio sources are tracked as they cross the line-of-sight to the Sun. Usng a simple model, the emission levels are determined at a number of radio frequencies for four separate storms. The IP storm radiation is found to occur in regions of enhanced density at levels of 0.05 to 0.8 AU. The density in these enhancements falls off faster than R(-2). The solar wind speed in the storm region is also measured. The analysis is consistent with steady conditions in the storm region during a few days around the central meridian passage of the storm. The comparison with average in situ density measurements compiled from the HELIOS 1-2 observations favors type III storm burst radio emission at the harmonic of the local plasma frequency.

  15. Ionospheric storms at geophysically-equivalent sites – Part 1: Storm-time patterns for sub-auroral ionospheres

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mendillo

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available The systematic study of ionospheric storms has been conducted primarily with groundbased data from the Northern Hemisphere. Significant progress has been made in defining typical morphology patterns at all latitudes; mechanisms have been identified and tested via modeling. At higher mid-latitudes (sites that are typically sub-auroral during non-storm conditions, the processes that change significantly during storms can be of comparable magnitudes, but with different time constants. These include ionospheric plasma dynamics from the penetration of magnetospheric electric fields, enhancements to thermospheric winds due to auroral and Joule heating inputs, disturbance dynamo electrodynamics driven by such winds, and thermospheric composition changes due to the changed circulation patterns. The ~12° tilt of the geomagnetic field axis causes significant longitude effects in all of these processes in the Northern Hemisphere. A complementary series of longitude effects would be expected to occur in the Southern Hemisphere. In this paper we begin a series of studies to investigate the longitudinal-hemispheric similarities and differences in the response of the ionosphere's peak electron density to geomagnetic storms. The ionosonde stations at Wallops Island (VA and Hobart (Tasmania have comparable geographic and geomagnetic latitudes for sub-auroral locations, are situated at longitudes close to that of the dipole tilt, and thus serve as our candidate station-pair choice for studies of ionospheric storms at geophysically-comparable locations. They have an excellent record of observations of the ionospheric penetration frequency (foF2 spanning several solar cycles, and thus are suitable for long-term studies. During solar cycle #20 (1964–1976, 206 geomagnetic storms occurred that had Ap≥30 or Kp≥5 for at least one day of the storm. Our analysis of average storm-time perturbations (percent deviations from the monthly means showed a remarkable

  16. Classification and quantification of solar wind driver gases leading to intense geomagnetic storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adekoya, B. J.; Chukwuma, V. U.

    2018-01-01

    Classification and quantification of the interplanetary structures causing intense geomagnetic storms (Dst ≤ -100 nT) that occurred during 1997-2016 are studied. The subject of this consists of solar wind parameters of seventy-three intense storms that are associated with the southward interplanetary magnetic field. About 30.14% of the storms were driven by a combination of the sheath and ejecta (S + E), magnetic clouds (MC) and sheath field (S) are 26% each, 10.96% by combined sheath and MCs (S + C), while 5.48% of the storms were driven by ejecta (E) alone. Therefore, we want to aver that for storms driven by: (1) S + E. The Bz is high (≥10 nT), high density (ρ) (>10 N/cm3), high plasma beta (β) (>0.8), and unspecified (i.e. high or low) structure of the plasma temperature (T) and the flow speed (V); (2) MC. The Bz is ≥10 nT, low temperature (T ≤ 400,000 K), low ρ (≤10 N/cm3), high V (≥450 km), and low β (≤0.8); (3) The structures of S + C are similar to that of MC except that the V is low (V ≤ 450 km); (4) S. The Bz is high, low T, high ρ, unspecified V, and low β; and (5) E. Is when the structures are directly opposite of the one driven by MCs except for high V. Although, westward ring current indicates intense storms, but the large intensity of geomagnetic storms is determined by the intense nature of the electric field strength and the Bz. Therefore, great storms (i.e. Dst ≤ -200 nT) are manifestation of high electric field strength (≥13 mV/m).

  17. Local drainage analyses of the Paducah and Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plants during an extreme storm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, R.O.; Wang, J.C.; Lee, D.W.

    1993-01-01

    Local drainage analyses have been performed for the Paducah and Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plants during an extreme storm having an approximate 10,000-yr recurrence interval. This review discusses the methods utilized to accomplish the analyses in accordance with US Department of Energy (DOE) design and evaluation guidelines, and summarizes trends, results, generalizations, and uncertainties applicable to other DOE facilities. Results indicate that some culverts may be undersized, and that the storm sewer system cannot drain the influx of precipitation from the base of buildings. Roofs have not been designed to sustain ponding when the primary drainage system is clogged. Some underground tunnels, building entrances, and ground level air intakes may require waterproofing

  18. Radiation From Solar Activity | Radiation Protection | US EPA

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-08-07

    Solar flares, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and geomagnetic storms from the sun can send extreme bursts of ionizing radiation and magnetic energy toward Earth. Some of this energy is in the form ionizing radiation and some of the energy is magnetic energy.

  19. A comparative study of night-time enhancement of TEC at a low latitude station on storm and quiet nights including the local time, seasonal and solar activity dependence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Unnikrishnan

    Full Text Available The main characteristics of night-time enhancements in TEC during magnetic storms are compared with those during quiet nights for different seasons and solar activity conditions at Palehua, a low latitude station during the period 1980–1989. We find that the mean amplitude has both a seasonal and solar activity dependence: in winter, the values are higher for weak storms as compared to those during quiet nights and increase with an increase in solar activity. In summer, the mean amplitude values during weak storms and quiet nights are almost equal. But during equinox, the mean amplitude values for quiet nights are greater than those during weak storms. The mean half-amplitude duration is higher during weak storms as compared to that during quiet nights in summer. However, during winter and equinox, the durations are almost equal for both quiet and weak storm nights. For the mean half-amplitude duration, the quiet night values for all the seasons and equinoctial weak storm values increase with an increase in solar activity. The occurrence frequency (in percent of TEC enhancement during weak storms is greater than during quiet nights for all seasons. The mean amplitude, the mean half-amplitude duration and the occurrence frequency (in percent of TEC enhancement values are higher during major storms as compared to those during quiet nights. The above parameters have their highest values during pre-midnight hours. From the data analysed, this behaviour is true in the case of major storms also.

    Key words. Ionosphere (ionospheric disturbances; plasma convection Magnetospheric physics (storms and substorms

  20. Spectropolarimetric Observations of Solar Noise Storms at Low Frequencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mugundhan, V.; Ramesh, R.; Kathiravan, C.; Gireesh, G. V. S.; Hegde, Aathira

    2018-03-01

    A new high-resolution radio spectropolarimeter instrument operating in the frequency range of 15 - 85 MHz has recently been commissioned at the Radio Astronomy Field Station of the Indian Institute of Astrophysics at Gauribidanur, 100 km north of Bangalore, India. We describe the design and construction of this instrument. We present observations of a solar radio noise storm associated with Active Region (AR) 12567 in the frequency range of {≈} 15 - 85 MHz during 18 and 19 July 2016, observed using this instrument in the meridian-transit mode. This is the first report that we are aware of in which both the burst and continuum properties are derived simultaneously. Spectral indices and degree of polarization of both the continuum radiation and bursts are estimated. It is found that i) Type I storm bursts have a spectral index of {≈} {+}3.5, ii) the spectral index of the background continuum is ≈+2.9, iii) the transition frequency between Type I and Type III storms occurs at ≈55 MHz, iv) Type III bursts have an average spectral index of ≈-2.7, v) the spectral index of the Type III continuum is ≈-1.6, and vi) the degree of circular polarization of all Type I (Type III) bursts is ≈90% (30%). The results obtained here indicate that the continuum emission is due to bursts occurring in rapid succession. We find that the derived parameters for Type I bursts are consistent with suprathermal electron acceleration theory and those of Type III favor fundamental plasma emission.

  1. A superposed epoch analysis of geomagnetic storms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. R. Taylor

    1994-06-01

    Full Text Available A superposed epoch analysis of geomagnetic storms has been undertaken. The storms are categorised via their intensity (as defined by the Dst index. Storms have also been classified here as either storm sudden commencements (SSCs or storm gradual commencements (SGCs, that is all storms which did not begin with a sudden commencement. The prevailing solar wind conditions defined by the parameters solar wind speed (vsw, density (ρsw and pressure (Psw and the total field and the components of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF during the storms in each category have been investigated by a superposed epoch analysis. The southward component of the IMF, appears to be the controlling parameter for the generation of small SGCs (-100 nT< minimum Dst ≤ -50 nT for ≥ 4 h, but for SSCs of the same intensity solar wind pressure is dominant. However, for large SSCs (minimum Dst ≤ -100 nT for ≥ 4 h the solar wind speed is the controlling parameter. It is also demonstrated that for larger storms magnetic activity is not solely driven by the accumulation of substorm activity, but substantial energy is directly input via the dayside. Furthermore, there is evidence that SSCs are caused by the passage of a coronal mass ejection, whereas SGCs result from the passage of a high speed/ slow speed coronal stream interface. Storms are also grouped by the sign of Bz during the first hour epoch after the onset. The sign of Bz at t = +1 h is the dominant sign of the Bz for ~24 h before the onset. The total energy released during storms for which Bz was initially positive is, however, of the same order as for storms where Bz was initially negative.

  2. Proxy records of Holocene storm events in coastal barrier systems: Storm-wave induced markers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goslin, Jérôme; Clemmensen, Lars B.

    2017-10-01

    Extreme storm events in the coastal zone are one of the main forcing agents of short-term coastal system behavior. As such, storms represent a major threat to human activities concentrated along the coasts worldwide. In order to better understand the frequency of extreme events like storms, climate science must rely on longer-time records than the century-scale records of instrumental weather data. Proxy records of storm-wave or storm-wind induced activity in coastal barrier systems deposits have been widely used worldwide in recent years to document past storm events during the last millennia. This review provides a detailed state-of-the-art compilation of the proxies available from coastal barrier systems to reconstruct Holocene storm chronologies (paleotempestology). The present paper aims (I) to describe the erosional and depositional processes caused by storm-wave action in barrier and back-barrier systems (i.e. beach ridges, storm scarps and washover deposits), (ii) to understand how storm records can be extracted from barrier and back-barrier sedimentary bodies using stratigraphical, sedimentological, micro-paleontological and geochemical proxies and (iii) to show how to obtain chronological control on past storm events recorded in the sedimentary successions. The challenges that paleotempestology studies still face in the reconstruction of representative and reliable storm-chronologies using these various proxies are discussed, and future research prospects are outlined.

  3. An ensemble study of extreme storm surge related water levels in the North Sea in a changing climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Sterl

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The height of storm surges is extremely important for a low-lying country like The Netherlands. By law, part of the coastal defence system has to withstand a water level that on average occurs only once every 10 000 years. The question then arises whether and how climate change affects the heights of extreme storm surges. Published research points to only small changes. However, due to the limited amount of data available results are usually limited to relatively frequent extremes like the annual 99%-ile. We here report on results from a 17-member ensemble of North Sea water levels spaning the period 1950–2100. It was created by forcing a surge model of the North Sea with meteorological output from a state-of-the-art global climate model which has been driven by greenhouse gas emissions following the SRES A1b scenario. The large ensemble size enables us to calculate 10 000 year return water levels with a low statistical uncertainty. In the one model used in this study, we find no statistically significant change in the 10 000 year return values of surge heights along the Dutch during the 21st century. Also a higher sea level resulting from global warming does not impact the height of the storm surges. As a side effect of our simulations we also obtain results on the interplay between surge and tide.

  4. State-shifting at the edge of resilience: River suspended sediment responses to land use change and extreme storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbott, Samantha; Julian, Jason P.; Kamarinas, Ioannis; Meitzen, Kimberly M.; Fuller, Ian C.; McColl, Samuel T.; Dymond, John R.

    2018-03-01

    The interaction of climate, geomorphology, and land use dictates catchment sediment production and associated river sediment loads. Accordingly, the resilience of catchments to disturbances can be assessed with suspended sediment regimes. This case study in the hill country of the lower North Island of New Zealand was a decade-long examination of the short- and long-term effects of an extreme storm event on sediment supply and exhaustion in the Oroua and Pohangina catchments, two catchments that have experienced intense land use changes and frequent broad-scale landslides. Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration, a program developed to characterize hydrologic regimes, was used to analyze daily suspended sediment records over a period of a decade in order to characterize sediment regimes of the Oroua and Pohangina. An aggregated data set of sediment-bearing events for the period of record was analyzed to examine the suspended sediment response of individual storms relative to runoff magnitudes. The findings of this study demonstrate that large storms that generate extreme landsliding and flooding have the ability to produce enough sediment to temporarily convert catchments from a supply-limited state to a transport-limited state. Landsliding and thus sediment supply was disproportionately high in locations where livestock grazing occurred on steep hillslopes. The timing and intensity of previous storms, or the antecedent catchment condition, was also shown to influence the response of the catchments. In both catchments, suspended sediment loads were elevated for a period of 4 years following the landslide-generating February 2004 storm. The methods and findings we present are useful for assessing the resilience of catchments exposed to frequent disturbances such as land use changes and landslides.

  5. The combined risk of extreme tropical cyclone winds and storm surges along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trepanier, J. C.; Yuan, J.; Jagger, T. H.

    2017-03-01

    Tropical cyclones, with their nearshore high wind speeds and deep storm surges, frequently strike the United States Gulf of Mexico coastline influencing millions of people and disrupting offshore economic activities. The combined risk of occurrence of tropical cyclone nearshore wind speeds and storm surges is assessed at 22 coastal cities throughout the United States Gulf of Mexico. The models used are extreme value copulas fitted with margins defined by the generalized Pareto distribution or combinations of Weibull, gamma, lognormal, or normal distributions. The statistical relationships between the nearshore wind speed and storm surge are provided for each coastal city prior to the copula model runs using Spearman's rank correlations. The strongest significant relationship between the nearshore wind speed and storm surge exists at Shell Beach, LA (ρ = 0.67), followed by South Padre Island, TX (ρ = 0.64). The extreme value Archimedean copula models for each city then provide return periods for specific nearshore wind speed and storm surge pairs. Of the 22 cities considered, Bay St. Louis, MS, has the shortest return period for a tropical cyclone with at least a 50 ms-1 nearshore wind speed and a 3 m surge (19.5 years, 17.1-23.5). The 90% confidence intervals are created by recalculating the return periods for a fixed set of wind speeds and surge levels using 100 samples of the model parameters. The results of this study can be utilized by policy managers and government officials concerned with coastal populations and economic activity in the Gulf of Mexico.

  6. Cosmic ray variations of solar origin in relation to human physiological state during the December 2006 solar extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papailiou, M.; Mavromichalaki, H.; Vassilaki, A.; Kelesidis, K. M.; Mertzanos, G. A.; Petropoulos, B.

    2009-02-01

    There is an increasing amount of evidence linking biological effects to solar and geomagnetic disturbances. A series of studies is published referring to the changes in human physiological responses at different levels of geomagnetic activity. In this study, the possible relation between the daily variations of cosmic ray intensity, measured by the Neutron Monitor at the Cosmic Ray Station of the University of Athens (http://cosray.phys.uoa.gr) and the average daily and hourly heart rate variations of persons, with no symptoms or hospital admission, monitored by Holter electrocardiogram, is considered. This work refers to a group of persons admitted to the cardiological clinic of the KAT Hospital in Athens during the time period from 4th to 24th December 2006 that is characterized by extreme solar and geomagnetic activity. A series of Forbush decreases started on 6th December and lasted until the end of the month and a great solar proton event causing a Ground Level Enhancement (GLE) of the cosmic ray intensity on 13th December occurred. A sudden decrease of the cosmic ray intensity on 15th December, when a geomagnetic storm was registered, was also recorded in Athens Neutron Monitor station (cut-off rigidity 8.53 GV) with amplitude of 4%. It is noticed that during geomagnetically quiet days the heart rate and the cosmic ray intensity variations are positively correlated. When intense cosmic ray variations, like Forbush decreases and relativistic proton events produced by strong solar phenomena occur, cosmic ray intensity and heart rate get minimum values and their variations, also, coincide. During these events the correlation coefficient of these two parameters changes and follows the behavior of the cosmic ray intensity variations. This is only a small part of an extended investigation, which has begun using data from the year 2002 and is still in progress.

  7. Flow of Energy through the Inner Magnetosphere during the March 17, 2015 solar storm as observed by the Van Allen Probes Radiation Belt Storm Probes Ion Composition Experiment (RBSPICE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manweiler, J. W.; Madanian, H.; Gerrard, A. J.; Patterson, J. D.; Mitchell, D. G.; Lanzerotti, L. J.

    2017-12-01

    On March 17, 2015, a large solar storm impacted the Earth's magnetosphere with a maximum negative Dst of -232 nT. We report on the temporal and spatial evolution of the proton energetic particle distributions in phase space during this storm, as measured by the Radiation Belt Storm Probes Ion Composition Experiment (RBSPICE) instrument on board each of the Van Allen Probes. We characterize the distribution prior to onset of the storm to provide a definition of quiet time conditions. We then show how the distribution evolves during the storm noting key changes of the distribution as a function of L and MLT and showing how the pitch angle distributions change throughout the storm. These observations displayed a number of interesting features of the storm including high beta plasma conditions and multiple injections of protons into the inner magnetosphere. We present the radial changes of the distribution at storm onset and following the evolution of the distribution during storm recovery. We compare observations of the East/West asymmetry in the proton distribution before versus after onset using both Van Allen Probes A and B spacecraft observations. Finally, we note interesting changes in the distribution showing an anomalous dropout in mid-energies of the distribution and observe an outward radial propagation of this dropout during recovery.

  8. Energetic evaluation of the largest geomagnetic storms of solar cycle 24 on March 17, 2015 and September 8, 2017 during solar maximum and minimum, respectively

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tomova, Dimitrinka; Velinov, Peter; Tassev, Yordan; Tomova, Dimitrinka

    2018-01-01

    Some of the most powerful Earth’s directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from the current 24 solar cycle have been investigated. These are CMEs on March 15, 2015 and on September 4 and 6, 2017. As a result of these impacts of Sun on Earth, the highest intensity of the geomagnetic storms for the 24th solar cycle is observed. These G4 – Severe geomagnetic storms are in the periods March 17÷19, 2015 and September 7÷10, 2017. We use the solar wind parameters (velocity V, density or concentration N , temperature T p and intensity of the magnetic field B) from measurements by WIND, ACE and SOHO space crafts in the Lagrange equilibrium point L1 between Sun and Earth. We make calculations for the kinetic (dynamic) energy density E k , thermal energy density E t and magnetic energy density E m during the investigated periods May 10÷24, 2015 and September 2÷16, 2017. Both the energy densities for the individual events and the cumulative energy for each of them are evaluated. The quantitative analysis shows that not always the size of the geomagnetic reaction is commensurate with the density of the energy flux reaching the magnetosphere. In both studied periods, the energy densities have different behaviour over time. But for both periods, we can talk about the prognostic effect – with varying degrees of increase of the dynamic and thermal energies. Such an effect is not observed in the density of magnetic energy. An inverse relationship between the magnitude of the density of energies and the effect of Forbush decrease of the galactic cosmic rays is established. Key words: solar activity, flares, coronal mass ejection (CME), G4 –Severe geomagnetic storms, energy density of the solar wind, space weather

  9. Thermospheric response observed over Fritz peak, Colorado, during two large geomagnetic storms near solar cycle maximum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hernandez, G.; Roble, R.G.; Ridley, E.C.; Allen, J.H.

    1982-01-01

    Nightime thermospheric winds and temperatures have been measured over Fritz Peak Observatory, Colorado (39.9 0 N, 105.5 0 W), with a high resolution Fabry-Perot spectrometer. The winds and temperatures are obtained from the Doppler shifts and line profiles of the (O 1) 15,867K (630 nm) line emission. Measurements made during two large geomagnetic storm periods near solar cycle maximum reveal a thermospheric response to the heat and momentum sources associated with these storms that is more complex than the ones measured near solar cycle minimum. In the earlier measurements made during solar cycle minimum, the winds to the north of Fritz Peak Observatory had an enhanced equatorward component and the winds to the south were also equatorward, usually with smaller velocities. The winds measured to the east and west of the observatory both had an enhanced westward wind component. For the two large storms near the present solar cycle maximum period converging winds are observed in each of the cardinal directions from Fritz Peak Observatory. These converging winds with speeds of hundreds of meters per second last for several hours. The measured neutral gas temperature in each of the directions also increases several hundred degrees Kelvin. Numerical experiments done with the NCAR thermospheric general circulation model (TGCM) suggest that the winds to the east and north of the station are driven by high-latitude heating and enhanced westward ion drag associated with magnetospheric convection. The cause of the enhanced poleward and eastward winds measured to the south and west of Fritz Peak Observatory, respectively, is not known. During geomagnetic quiet conditions the circulation is typically from the soutwest toward the northeast in the evening hours

  10. Simulation of the 23 July 2012 Extreme Space Weather Event: What if This Extremely Rare CME Was Earth Directed?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngwira, Chigomezyo M.; Pulkkinen, Antti; Mays, M. Leila; Kuznetsova, Maria M.; Galvin, A. B.; Simunac, Kristin; Baker, Daniel N.; Li, Xinlin; Zheng, Yihua; Glocer, Alex

    2013-01-01

    Extreme space weather events are known to cause adverse impacts on critical modern day technological infrastructure such as high-voltage electric power transmission grids. On 23 July 2012, NASA's Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory-Ahead (STEREO-A) spacecraft observed in situ an extremely fast coronal mass ejection (CME) that traveled 0.96 astronomical units (approx. 1 AU) in about 19 h. Here we use the SpaceWeather Modeling Framework (SWMF) to perform a simulation of this rare CME.We consider STEREO-A in situ observations to represent the upstream L1 solar wind boundary conditions. The goal of this study is to examine what would have happened if this Rare-type CME was Earth-bound. Global SWMF-generated ground geomagnetic field perturbations are used to compute the simulated induced geoelectric field at specific ground-based active INTERMAGNET magnetometer sites. Simulation results show that while modeled global SYM-H index, a high-resolution equivalent of the Dst index, was comparable to previously observed severe geomagnetic storms such as the Halloween 2003 storm, the 23 July CME would have produced some of the largest geomagnetically induced electric fields, making it very geoeffective. These results have important practical applications for risk management of electrical power grids.

  11. COMPARATIVE EVALUATION OF THE INFLUENCING EFFECTS OF GEOMAGNETIC SOLAR STORMS ON EARTHQUAKES IN ANATOLIAN PENINSULA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yesugey Sadik Cengiz

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Earthquakes are tectonic events that take place within the fractures of the earth's crust, namely faults. Above certain scale, earthquakes can result in widespread fatalities and substantial financial loss. In addition to the movement of tectonic plates relative to each other, it is widely discussed that there are other external influences originate outside earth that can trigger earthquakes. These influences are called "triggering effects". The purpose of this article is to present a statistical view to elaborate if the solar geomagnetic storms trigger earthquakes.As a model, the research focuses on the Anatolian peninsula, presenting 41 years of historical data on magnetic storms and earthquakes collated from national and international resources. As a result of the comparative assessment of the data, it is concluded that the geomagnetic storms do not trigger earthquakes.

  12. A Novel Ice Storm Experiment for Evaluating the Ecological Impacts of These Extreme Weather Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Driscoll, C. T.; Campbell, J. L.; Rustad, L.; Fahey, T.; Fahey, R. T.; Garlick, S.; Groffman, P.; Hawley, G. J.; Schaberg, P. G.

    2017-12-01

    Ice storms are among the most destructive natural disturbances in some regions of the world, and are an example of an extreme weather event that can profoundly disrupt ecosystem function. Despite potential dire consequences of ice storms on ecosystems and society, we are poorly positioned to predict responses because severe ice storms are infrequent and understudied. Since it is difficult to determine when and where ice storms will occur, most previous research has consisted of ad hoc attempts to characterize impacts in the wake of major icing events. To evaluate ice storm effects in a more controlled manner, we conducted a novel ice storm manipulation experiment at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire. Water was sprayed above the forest canopy in sub-freezing conditions to simulate a glaze ice event. Treatments included replicate plots that received three levels of radial ice thickness (6, 13, and 19 mm) and reference plots that were not sprayed. Additionally, two of the mid-level treatment plots received ice applications in back-to-back years to evaluate effects associated with ice storm frequency. Measures of the forest canopy, including hemispherical photography, photosynthetically active radiation, and ground-based LiDAR, indicated that the ice loads clearly damaged vegetation and opened up the canopy, allowing more light to penetrate. These changes in the canopy were reflected in measurements of fine and coarse woody debris that were commensurate with the level of icing. Soil respiration declined in the most heavily damaged plots, which we attribute to changes in root activity. Although soil solution nitrogen showed clear seasonal patterns, there was no treatment response. These results differ from the severe regional natural ice storm of 1998, which caused large leaching losses of nitrate in soil solutions and stream water during the growing season after the event, due to lack of uptake by damaged vegetation. It is not yet clear why there

  13. From pre-storm activity to magnetic storms: a transition described in terms of fractal dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Balasis

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available We show that distinct changes in scaling parameters of the Dst index time series occur as an intense magnetic storm approaches, revealing a gradual reduction in complexity. The remarkable acceleration of energy release – manifested in the increase in susceptibility – couples to the transition from anti-persistent (negative feedback to persistent (positive feedback behavior and indicates that the occurence of an intense magnetic storm is imminent. The main driver of the Dst index, the VBSouth electric field component, does not reveal a similar transition to persistency prior to the storm. This indicates that while the magnetosphere is mostly driven by the solar wind the critical feature of persistency in the magnetosphere is the result of a combination of solar wind and internal magnetospheric activity rather than solar wind variations alone. Our results suggest that the development of an intense magnetic storm can be studied in terms of "intermittent criticality" that is of a more general character than the classical self-organized criticality phenomena, implying the predictability of the magnetosphere.

  14. Characteristics of storms that contribute to extreme precipitation events over the Iberian Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trigo, Ricardo; Ramos, Alexandre M.; Ordoñez, Paulina; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Trigo, Isabel F.

    2014-05-01

    Floods correspond to one of the most deadly natural disasters in the Iberian Peninsula during the last century. Quite often these floods are associated to intense low pressure systems with an Atlantic origin. In recent years a number of episodes have been evaluated on a case-by-case approach, with a clear focus on extreme events, thus lacking a systematic assessment. In this study we focus on the characteristics of storms for the extended winter season (October to March) that are responsible for the most extreme rainfall events over large areas of the Iberian Peninsula. An objective method for ranking daily precipitation events during the extended winter is used based on the most comprehensive database of high resolution (0.2º latitude by 0.2º longitude) gridded daily precipitation dataset available for the Iberian Peninsula. The magnitude of an event is obtained after considering the total area affected as well as its intensity in every grid point (taking into account the daily normalised departure from climatology). Different precipitation rankings are studied considering the entire Iberian Peninsula, Portugal and also the six largest river basins in the Iberian Peninsula (Duero, Ebro, Tagus, Minho, Guadiana and Guadalquivir). Using an objective cyclone detecting and tracking scheme [Trigo, 2006] the storm track and characteristics of the cyclones were obtained using the ERA-Interim reanalyses for the 1979-2008 period. The spatial distribution of extratropical cyclone positions when the precipitation extremes occur will be analysed over the considered sub-domains (Iberia, Portugal, major river basins). In addition, we distinguish the different cyclone characteristics (lifetime, direction, minimum pressure, position, velocity, vorticity and radius) with significant impacts in precipitation over the different domains in the Iberian Peninsula. This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa

  15. A comparison of the ground magnetic responses during the 2013 and 2015 St. Patrick's Day geomagnetic storms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xu, Z.; Hartinger, M. D.; Clauer, Robert C.

    2017-01-01

    The magnetosphere-ionosphere system response to extreme solar wind driving conditions depends on both the driving conditions and ionospheric conductivity. Since extreme driving conditions are rare, there are few opportunities to control for one parameter or another. The 17 March 2013 and 17 March...... 2015 geomagnetic storms driven by coronal mass ejections (CME) provide one such opportunity. The two events occur during the same solar illumination conditions; in particular, both occur near equinox on the same day of the year leading to similar ionospheric conductivity profiles. Moreover, both CMEs...... systems. There are dramatic differences between the intensity, onset time and occurrence, duration, and spatial structure of the current systems in each case. For example, differing solar wind driving conditions lead to interhemispheric asymmetries in the high-latitude ground magnetic response during...

  16. Dependence of regular background noise of VLF radiation and thunder-storm activity on solar wind proton density

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sobolev, A.V.; Kozlov, V.I.

    1997-01-01

    Correlation of the intensity of slowly changing regular background noise within 9.7 kHz frequency in Yakutsk (L = 3) and of the solar wind density protons was determined. This result explains the reverse dependence of the intensity of the regular background noise on the solar activity, 27-day frequency, increase before and following geomagnetic storms, absence of relation with K p index of geomagnetic activity. Conclusion is made that growth of density of the solar wind protons results in increase of the regular background noise and thunderstorm activity

  17. Cause and Properties of the Extreme Space Weather Event of 2012 July 23

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Y. D.; Luhmann, J. G.; Kajdic, P.; Kilpua, E.; Lugaz, N.; Nitta, N.; Lavraud, B.; Bale, S. D.; Farrugia, C. J.; Galvin, A. B.

    2013-12-01

    Extreme space weather refers to extreme conditions in space driven by solar eruptions and subsequent disturbances in interplanetary space, or otherwise called solar superstorms. Understanding extreme space weather events is becoming ever more vital, as the vulnerability of our society and its technological infrastructure to space weather has increased dramatically. Instances of extreme space weather, however, are very rare by definition and therefore are difficult to study. Here we report and investigate an extreme event, which occurred on 2012 July 23 with a maximum speed of about 3050 km/s near the Sun. This event, with complete modern remote sensing and in situ observations from multiple vantage points, provides an unprecedented opportunity to study the cause and consequences of extreme space weather. It produced a superfast shock with a peak solar wind speed of 2246 km/s and a superstrong magnetic cloud with a peak magnetic field of 109 nT observed near 1 AU at STEREO A. The record solar wind speed and magnetic field would produce a record geomagnetic storm since the space era with a minimum Dst of -1200 - -600 nT, if this event hit the Earth. We demonstrate how successive coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can be enhanced into a solar superstorm as they interact en route from the Sun to 1 AU. These results not only provide a benchmark for studies of extreme space weather, but also present a new view of how an extreme space weather event can be generated from usual solar eruptions.

  18. Predicting geomagnetic storms from solar-wind data using time-delay neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Gleisner

    1996-07-01

    Full Text Available We have used time-delay feed-forward neural networks to compute the geomagnetic-activity index Dst one hour ahead from a temporal sequence of solar-wind data. The input data include solar-wind density n, velocity V and the southward component Bz of the interplanetary magnetic field. Dst is not included in the input data. The networks implement an explicit functional relationship between the solar wind and the geomagnetic disturbance, including both direct and time-delayed non-linear relations. In this study we especially consider the influence of varying the temporal size of the input-data sequence. The networks are trained on data covering 6600 h, and tested on data covering 2100 h. It is found that the initial and main phases of geomagnetic storms are well predicted, almost independent of the length of the input-data sequence. However, to predict the recovery phase, we have to use up to 20 h of solar-wind input data. The recovery phase is mainly governed by the ring-current loss processes, and is very much dependent on the ring-current history, and thus also the solar-wind history. With due consideration of the time history when optimizing the networks, we can reproduce 84% of the Dst variance.

  19. Type 2 solar radio burst with the reverse frequency drift on the background of a noise storm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Korolev, O.S.; Fomichev, V.V.; Chertok, I.M.

    1979-01-01

    Discussed are the main peculiarities of solar radio burst of the 2nd type recorded on November, 19, 1975 in 11sup(h)02sup(m)-11sup(h)06sup(m)UT in the 45-90 MHz range. The burst considered occurred at the background of the developed noise storm with continuum radiation chearacteristic of it and narrow band. Short-term burst of the first type. The burst band drift was accompanied by the successive cessation of noise storm radiation at frequencies of 50-70 MHz. This phenomenon is interpreted as the result of the interaction between the shock wave spreading in the direction of increasing electron density, and the source of noise storm in coronal plasma. Estimated is the shock wave rate and the paremeters of coronal plasma in the direction of its spreading. A mechanism of interaction between the shock wave and the noise storm source is studied. The observed cessation of noise storm generation is explained by violation of conditions of development of instabilities, in particular, with the isotropization of electrons in the radiation source

  20. Extreme storms, sea level rise, and coastal change: implications for infrastructure reliability in the Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anarde, K.; Kameshwar, S.; Irza, N.; Lorenzo-Trueba, J.; Nittrouer, J. A.; Padgett, J.; Bedient, P. B.

    2016-12-01

    Predicting coastal infrastructure reliability during hurricane events is important for risk-based design and disaster planning, such as delineating viable emergency response routes. Previous research has focused on either infrastructure vulnerability to coastal flooding or the impact of changing sea level and landforms on surge dynamics. Here we investigate the combined impact of sea level, morphology, and coastal flooding on the reliability of highway bridges - the only access points between barrier islands and mainland communities - during future extreme storms. We forward model coastal flooding for static projections of geomorphic change using ADCIRC+SWAN. First-order parameters that are adjusted include sea level and elevation. These are varied for each storm simulation to evaluate relative impact on the reliability of bridges surrounding Freeport, TX. Simulated storms include both synthetic and historical events, which are classified by intensity using the storm's integrated kinetic energy, a metric for surge generation potential. Reliability is estimated through probability of failure - given wave and surge loads - and time inundated. Findings include that: 1) bridge reliability scales inversely with surge height, and 2) sea level rise reduces bridge reliability due to a monotonic increase in surge height. The impact of a shifting landscape on bridge reliability is more complex: barrier island rollback can increase or decrease inundation times for storms of different intensity due to changes in wind-setup and back-barrier bay interactions. Initial storm surge readily inundates the coastal landscape during large intensity storms, however the draining of inland bays following storm passage is significantly impeded by the barrier. From a coastal engineering standpoint, we determine that to protect critical infrastructure, efforts now implemented that nourish low-lying barriers may be enhanced by also armoring back-bay coastlines and elevating bridge approach

  1. Storm-time radiation belt electron dynamics: Repeatability in the outer radiation belt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, K. R.; Mann, I. R.; Rae, J.; Watt, C.; Boyd, A. J.; Turner, D. L.; Claudepierre, S. G.; Baker, D. N.; Spence, H. E.; Reeves, G. D.; Blake, J. B.; Fennell, J. F.

    2017-12-01

    During intervals of enhanced solar wind driving the outer radiation belt becomes extremely dynamic leading to geomagnetic storms. During these storms the flux of energetic electrons can vary by over 4 orders of magnitude. Despite recent advances in understanding the nature of competing storm-time electron loss and acceleration processes the dynamic behavior of the outer radiation belt remains poorly understood; the outer radiation belt can exhibit either no change, an enhancement, or depletion in radiation belt electrons. Using a new analysis of the total radiation belt electron content, calculated from the Van Allen probes phase space density (PSD), we statistically analyze the time-dependent and global response of the outer radiation belt during storms. We demonstrate that by removing adiabatic effects there is a clear and repeatable sequence of events in storm-time radiation belt electron dynamics. Namely, the relativistic (μ=1000 MeV/G) and ultra-relativistic (μ=4000 MeV/G) electron populations can be separated into two phases; an initial phase dominated by loss followed by a second phase dominated by acceleration. At lower energies, the radiation belt seed population of electrons (μ=150 MeV/G) shows no evidence of loss but rather a net enhancement during storms. Further, we investigate the dependence of electron dynamics as a function of the second adiabatic invariant, K. These results demonstrate a global coherency in the dynamics of the source, relativistic and ultra-relativistic electron populations as function of the second adiabatic invariant K. This analysis demonstrates two key aspects of storm-time radiation belt electron dynamics. First, the radiation belt responds repeatably to solar wind driving during geomagnetic storms. Second, the response of the radiation belt is energy dependent, relativistic electrons behaving differently than lower energy seed electrons. These results have important implications in radiation belt research. In particular

  2. Solar storm effects during Saint Patrick's Days in 2013 and 2015 on the Schumann resonances measured by the ELF station at Sierra Nevada (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salinas, A.; Toledo-Redondo, S.; Navarro, E. A.; Fornieles-Callejón, J.; Portí, J. A.

    2016-12-01

    The effects of solar storms occurring during the days 17 to 19 March 2013 and 2015, St. Patrick's Day intervals, on Schumann resonances (SRs) have been studied. To do this, the experimental data recorded by the Juan Antonio Morente extremely low frequency station located at Sierra Nevada, Spain, have been processed in order to obtain hourly averaged information on the first three resonance modes. Results are compared with monthly averages of the SR data for each hour to detect deviations from the regular behavior. Evidence of significant changes in the peak amplitudes and frequencies of the SRs have been identified in the station's measurements and related to the coronal mass ejection impact in the magnetosphere, detected by in situ plasma measurements onboard spacecraft in the solar wind. However, the complicated nature of the Schumann resonances, dependent on multiple variables and subject to multiple unavoidable interferences (e.g., lightning or human radio sources), in conjunction with the complex magnetosphere-ionosphere-atmosphere coupling processes, makes it difficult to conclude that the observed deviations are exclusively due to the solar events mentioned. Results extracted from only two solar events cannot be considered as conclusive, and therefore, independent comparison with results reported by other research would seem advisable in future works on this subject.

  3. Jupiter's Spot Seen Glowing - Scientists Get First Look at Weather Inside the Solar System's Biggest Storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-01

    New ground-breaking thermal images obtained with ESO's Very Large Telescope and other powerful ground-based telescopes show swirls of warmer air and cooler regions never seen before within Jupiter's Great Red Spot, enabling scientists to make the first detailed interior weather map of the giant storm system linking its temperature, winds, pressure and composition with its colour. "This is our first detailed look inside the biggest storm of the Solar System," says Glenn Orton, who led the team of astronomers that made the study. "We once thought the Great Red Spot was a plain old oval without much structure, but these new results show that it is, in fact, extremely complicated." The observations reveal that the reddest colour of the Great Red Spot corresponds to a warm core within the otherwise cold storm system, and images show dark lanes at the edge of the storm where gases are descending into the deeper regions of the planet. The observations, detailed in a paper appearing in the journal Icarus, give scientists a sense of the circulation patterns within the solar system's best-known storm system. Sky gazers have been observing the Great Red Spot in one form or another for hundreds of years, with continuous observations of its current shape dating back to the 19th century. The spot, which is a cold region averaging about -160 degrees Celsius, is so wide that about three Earths could fit inside its boundaries. The thermal images were mostly obtained with the VISIR [1] instrument attached to ESO's Very Large Telescope in Chile, with additional data coming from the Gemini South telescope in Chile and the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan's Subaru Telescope in Hawaii. The images have provided an unprecedented level of resolution and extended the coverage provided by NASA's Galileo spacecraft in the late 1990s. Together with observations of the deep cloud structure by the 3-metre NASA Infrared Telescope Facility in Hawaii, the level of thermal detail observed

  4. Tree species traits but not diversity mitigate stem breakage in a subtropical forest following a rare and extreme ice storm.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karin Nadrowski

    Full Text Available Future climates are likely to include extreme events, which in turn have great impacts on ecological systems. In this study, we investigated possible effects that could mitigate stem breakage caused by a rare and extreme ice storm in a Chinese subtropical forest across a gradient of forest diversity. We used Bayesian modeling to correct stem breakage for tree size and variance components analysis to quantify the influence of taxon, leaf and wood functional traits, and stand level properties on the probability of stem breakage. We show that the taxon explained four times more variance in individual stem breakage than did stand level properties; trees with higher specific leaf area (SLA were less susceptible to breakage. However, a large part of the variation at the taxon scale remained unexplained, implying that unmeasured or undefined traits could be used to predict damage caused by ice storms. When aggregated at the plot level, functional diversity and wood density increased after the ice storm. We suggest that for the adaption of forest management to climate change, much can still be learned from looking at functional traits at the taxon level.

  5. Relative outflow enhancements during major geomagnetic storms – Cluster observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Schillings

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The rate of ion outflow from the polar ionosphere is known to vary by orders of magnitude, depending on the geomagnetic activity. However, the upper limit of the outflow rate during the largest geomagnetic storms is not well constrained due to poor spatial coverage during storm events. In this paper, we analyse six major geomagnetic storms between 2001 and 2004 using Cluster data. The six major storms fulfil the criteria of Dst  < −100 nT or Kp  > 7+. Since the shape of the magnetospheric regions (plasma mantle, lobe and inner magnetosphere are distorted during large magnetic storms, we use both plasma beta (β and ion characteristics to define a spatial box where the upward O+ flux scaled to an ionospheric reference altitude for the extreme event is observed. The relative enhancement of the scaled outflow in the spatial boxes as compared to the data from the full year when the storm occurred is estimated. Only O+ data were used because H+ may have a solar wind origin. The storm time data for most cases showed up as a clearly distinguishable separate peak in the distribution toward the largest fluxes observed. The relative enhancement in the outflow region during storm time is 1 to 2 orders of magnitude higher compared to less disturbed time. The largest relative scaled outflow enhancement is 83 (7 November 2004 and the highest scaled O+ outflow observed is 2  ×  1014 m−2 s−1 (29 October 2003.

  6. The differences between storms driven by helmet streamer CIRs and storms driven by pseudostreamer CIRs

    OpenAIRE

    Borovsky, Joseph E.; Denton, Michael

    2013-01-01

    A corotating interaction region (CIR) is formed when fast coronal hole origin solar wind overtakes slow solar wind and forms a region of compressed plasma and magnetic field. The slow wind upstream of the coronal hole fast wind can be either of helmet streamer origin or pseudostreamer origin. For a collection of 125 CIR-driven geomagnetic storms, the slow wind ahead of each CIR is examined; for those storm not containing ejecta, each CIR is categorized as a helmet streamer CIR (74 of the 125 ...

  7. Statistics of the largest sunspot and facular areas per solar cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Willis, D.M.; Kabasakal Tulunay, Y.

    1979-01-01

    The statistics of extreme values is used to investigate the statistical properties of the largest areas sunspots and photospheric faculae per solar cycle. The largest values of the synodic-solar-rotation mean areas of umbrae, whole spots and faculae, which have been recorded for nine solar cycles, are each shown to comply with the general form of the extreme value probability function. Empirical expressions are derived for the three extreme value populations from which the characteristic statistical parameters, namely the mode, median, mean and standard deviation, can be calculated for each population. These three extreme value populations are also used to find the expected ranges of the extreme areas in a group of solar cycles as a function of the number of cycles in the group. The extreme areas of umbrae and whole spots have a dispersion comparable to that found by Siscoe for the extreme values of sunspot number, whereas the extreme areas of faculae have a smaller dispersion which is comparable to that found by Siscoe for the largest geomagnetic storm per solar cycle. The expected range of the largest sunspot area per solar cycle for a group of one hundred cycles appears to be inconsistent with the existence of the prolonged periods of sunspot minima that have been inferred from the historical information on solar variability. This inconsistency supports the contention that there are temporal changes of solar-cycle statistics during protracted periods of sunspot minima (or maxima). Indeed, without such temporal changes, photospheric faculae should have been continually observable throughout the lifetime of the Sun. (orig.)

  8. Credible occurrence probabilities for extreme geophysical events: earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, magnetic storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, Jeffrey J.

    2012-01-01

    Statistical analysis is made of rare, extreme geophysical events recorded in historical data -- counting the number of events $k$ with sizes that exceed chosen thresholds during specific durations of time $\\tau$. Under transformations that stabilize data and model-parameter variances, the most likely Poisson-event occurrence rate, $k/\\tau$, applies for frequentist inference and, also, for Bayesian inference with a Jeffreys prior that ensures posterior invariance under changes of variables. Frequentist confidence intervals and Bayesian (Jeffreys) credibility intervals are approximately the same and easy to calculate: $(1/\\tau)[(\\sqrt{k} - z/2)^{2},(\\sqrt{k} + z/2)^{2}]$, where $z$ is a parameter that specifies the width, $z=1$ ($z=2$) corresponding to $1\\sigma$, $68.3\\%$ ($2\\sigma$, $95.4\\%$). If only a few events have been observed, as is usually the case for extreme events, then these "error-bar" intervals might be considered to be relatively wide. From historical records, we estimate most likely long-term occurrence rates, 10-yr occurrence probabilities, and intervals of frequentist confidence and Bayesian credibility for large earthquakes, explosive volcanic eruptions, and magnetic storms.

  9. On the possible relations between solar activities and global seismicity in the solar cycle 20 to 23

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herdiwijaya, Dhani, E-mail: dhani@as.itb.ac.id [Astronomy Research Division and Bosscha Observatory, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Bandung Institute of Technology, Ganesha 10, Bandung, Indonesia 40132 (Indonesia); Arif, Johan [Geology Research Division, Faculty of Earth Sciences and Technology, Bandung Institute of Technology, Ganesha 10, Bandung, Indonesia 40132 (Indonesia); Nurzaman, Muhamad Zamzam; Astuti, Isna Kusuma Dewi [Astronomy Study Program, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Bandung Institute of Technology, Ganesha 10, Bandung, Indonesia 40132 (Indonesia)

    2015-09-30

    Solar activities consist of high energetic particle streams, electromagnetic radiation, magnetic and orbital gravitational forces. The well-know solar activity main indicator is the existence of sunspot which has mean variation in 11 years, named by solar cycle, allow for the above fluctuations. Solar activities are also related to the space weather affecting all planetary atmospheric variability, moreover to the Earth’s climate variability. Large extreme space and geophysical events (high magnitude earthquakes, explosive volcanic eruptions, magnetic storms, etc.) are hazards for humankind, infrastructure, economies, technology and the activities of civilization. With a growing world population, and with modern reliance on delicate technological systems, human society is becoming increasingly vulnerable to natural hazardous events. The big question arises to the relation between solar forcing energy to the Earth’s global seismic activities. Estimates are needed for the long term occurrence-rate probabilities of these extreme natural hazardous events. We studied connectivity from yearly seismic activities that refer to and sunspot number within the solar cycle 20 to 23 of year 1960 to 2013 (53 years). We found clear evidences that in general high magnitude earthquake events and their depth were related to the low solar activity.

  10. On the possible relations between solar activities and global seismicity in the solar cycle 20 to 23

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herdiwijaya, Dhani; Arif, Johan; Nurzaman, Muhamad Zamzam; Astuti, Isna Kusuma Dewi

    2015-09-01

    Solar activities consist of high energetic particle streams, electromagnetic radiation, magnetic and orbital gravitational forces. The well-know solar activity main indicator is the existence of sunspot which has mean variation in 11 years, named by solar cycle, allow for the above fluctuations. Solar activities are also related to the space weather affecting all planetary atmospheric variability, moreover to the Earth's climate variability. Large extreme space and geophysical events (high magnitude earthquakes, explosive volcanic eruptions, magnetic storms, etc.) are hazards for humankind, infrastructure, economies, technology and the activities of civilization. With a growing world population, and with modern reliance on delicate technological systems, human society is becoming increasingly vulnerable to natural hazardous events. The big question arises to the relation between solar forcing energy to the Earth's global seismic activities. Estimates are needed for the long term occurrence-rate probabilities of these extreme natural hazardous events. We studied connectivity from yearly seismic activities that refer to and sunspot number within the solar cycle 20 to 23 of year 1960 to 2013 (53 years). We found clear evidences that in general high magnitude earthquake events and their depth were related to the low solar activity.

  11. Extreme Space Weather Events: From Cradle to Grave

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riley, Pete; Baker, Dan; Liu, Ying D.; Verronen, Pekka; Singer, Howard; Güdel, Manuel

    2018-02-01

    Extreme space weather events, while rare, can have a substantial impact on our technologically-dependent society. And, although such events have only occasionally been observed, through careful analysis of a wealth of space-based and ground-based observations, historical records, and extrapolations from more moderate events, we have developed a basic picture of the components required to produce them. Several key issues, however, remain unresolved. For example, what limits are imposed on the maximum size of such events? What are the likely societal consequences of a so-called "100-year" solar storm? In this review, we summarize our current scientific understanding about extreme space weather events as we follow several examples from the Sun, through the solar corona and inner heliosphere, across the magnetospheric boundary, into the ionosphere and atmosphere, into the Earth's lithosphere, and, finally, its impact on man-made structures and activities, such as spacecraft, GPS signals, radio communication, and the electric power grid. We describe preliminary attempts to provide probabilistic forecasts of extreme space weather phenomena, and we conclude by identifying several key areas that must be addressed if we are better able to understand, and, ultimately, predict extreme space weather events.

  12. New forecasting methods of the intensity and time development of geomagnetic and ionospheric storms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akasofu, S.I.

    1981-01-01

    The main phase of a geomagnetic storm develops differently from one storm to another. A description is given of the solar wind quantity which controls directly the development of the main phase of geomagnetic storms. The parameters involved include the solar wind speed, the magnetic field intensity, and the polar angle of the solar wind magnetic field projected onto the dawn-dusk plane. A redefinition of geomagnetic storm and auroral activity is given. It is pointed out that geomagnetic disturbances are caused by the magnetic fields of electric currents which are generated by the solar wind-magnetosphere dynamo. Attention is given to approaches for forecasting the occurrence and intensity of geomagnetic storms and ionospheric disturbances

  13. Taking Extreme Space Weather to the Milky Way

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesnell, W. Dean

    2014-06-01

    Extreme Space Weather events are large solar flares or geomagnetic storms, which can cause economic damage that cost billions of dollars to recover from. We have few examples of such events; only the Carrington Event (the solar superstorm) has superlatives in three categories: size of solar flare, drop in Dst, and amplitude of aa. Kepler observations show that stars similar to the Sun can have flares releasing thousands of times more energy than an X-class flare. These flares would strongly affect the atmosphere surrounding a planet orbiting such a star. Particle and magnetic field outflows from these stars could also be present. We are investigating the level of solar activity that is necessary to strongly affect the atmosphere of terrestrial planets. We assume that a habitable planet requires an atmosphere with a temperature and composition that is stable in time. Can we then extrapolate results from our solar system to determine a space of stellar parameters in which habitable planets can exist?

  14. Sediment transport and deposition during extreme sea storm events at the Salerno Bay (Tyrrhenian Sea: comparison of field data with numerical model results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Budillon

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Seismic stratigraphy and core litho-stratigraphy in the Salerno Bay inner shelf (Southern Tyrrhenian Sea reveal significant storm deposition episodes over the last 1 ky. Three major events are preserved as decimetre thick silt/sand layers bounded at their base by erosional surfaces and sealed in the muddy marine sequences between 25 and 60 m of depth. Geochronology and chrono-stratigraphy on core sediment point towards a recurrence of major sea storms between 0.1 and 0.3 ky and put the last significant event in the 19th century, when no local meteorological time series is available. A modelling of extreme sea-storms with a return period of about 0.1 ky is here proposed based on historical hindcast and aims at explaining the occurrence of such unusual deep and thick sand deposits in the northern sector of the bay. Results highlight the vulnerability of the northern coast of the Salerno Bay to the south western sea storms which can drive waves up to about 8 m high and wave period of about 13 s. With these conditions an intense combined flow current is formed and might account for winnowing fine sand down to the depth of 40 m at least. The numerical model thus confirms a possible sand transport in the bottom boundary layer due to wave-current interaction and could corroborate the interpretation of the most recent sand layers, included in the cores, as being generated under extreme sea storm conditions.

  15. Statistical Properties of Geomagnetic Activity Indices and Solar Wind Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jung-Hee Kim

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available As the prediction of geomagnetic storms is becoming an important and practical problem, conditions in the Earth’s magnetosphere have been studied rigorously in terms of those in the interplanetary space. Another approach to space weather forecast is to deal with it as a probabilistic geomagnetic storm forecasting problem. In this study, we carry out detailed statistical analysis of solar wind parameters and geomagnetic indices examining the dependence of the distribution on the solar cycle and annual variations. Our main findings are as follows: (1 The distribution of parameters obtained via the superimposed epoch method follows the Gaussian distribution. (2 When solar activity is at its maximum the mean value of the distribution is shifted to the direction indicating the intense environment. Furthermore, the width of the distribution becomes wider at its maximum than at its minimum so that more extreme case can be expected. (3 The distribution of some certain heliospheric parameters is less sensitive to the phase of the solar cycle and annual variations. (4 The distribution of the eastward component of the interplanetary electric field BV and the solar wind driving function BV2, however, appears to be all dependent on the solar maximum/minimum, the descending/ascending phases of the solar cycle and the equinoxes/solstices. (5 The distribution of the AE index and the Dst index shares statistical features closely with BV and BV2 compared with other heliospheric parameters. In this sense, BV and BV2 are more robust proxies of the geomagnetic storm. We conclude by pointing out that our results allow us to step forward in providing the occurrence probability of geomagnetic storms for space weather and physical modeling.

  16. Empirical STORM-E Model. [I. Theoretical and Observational Basis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mertens, Christopher J.; Xu, Xiaojing; Bilitza, Dieter; Mlynczak, Martin G.; Russell, James M., III

    2013-01-01

    Auroral nighttime infrared emission observed by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument onboard the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite is used to develop an empirical model of geomagnetic storm enhancements to E-region peak electron densities. The empirical model is called STORM-E and will be incorporated into the 2012 release of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI). The proxy for characterizing the E-region response to geomagnetic forcing is NO+(v) volume emission rates (VER) derived from the TIMED/SABER 4.3 lm channel limb radiance measurements. The storm-time response of the NO+(v) 4.3 lm VER is sensitive to auroral particle precipitation. A statistical database of storm-time to climatological quiet-time ratios of SABER-observed NO+(v) 4.3 lm VER are fit to widely available geomagnetic indices using the theoretical framework of linear impulse-response theory. The STORM-E model provides a dynamic storm-time correction factor to adjust a known quiescent E-region electron density peak concentration for geomagnetic enhancements due to auroral particle precipitation. Part II of this series describes the explicit development of the empirical storm-time correction factor for E-region peak electron densities, and shows comparisons of E-region electron densities between STORM-E predictions and incoherent scatter radar measurements. In this paper, Part I of the series, the efficacy of using SABER-derived NO+(v) VER as a proxy for the E-region response to solar-geomagnetic disturbances is presented. Furthermore, a detailed description of the algorithms and methodologies used to derive NO+(v) VER from SABER 4.3 lm limb emission measurements is given. Finally, an assessment of key uncertainties in retrieving NO+(v) VER is presented

  17. Coronal mass ejections and large geomagnetic storms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gosling, J.T.; Bame, S.J.; McComas, D.J.; Phillips, J.L.

    1990-01-01

    Previous work indicates that coronal mass ejection (CME) events in the solar wind at 1 AU can be identified by the presence of a flux of counterstreaming solar wind halo electrons (above about 80 eV). Using this technique to identify CMEs in 1 AU plasma data, the authors find that most large geomagnetic storms during the interval surrounding the last solar maximum (Aug. 1978-Oct. 1982) were associated with Earth-passage of interplanetary disturbances in which the Earth encountered both a shock and the CME driving the shock. However, only about one CME in six encountered by Earth was effective in causing a large geomagnetic storm. Slow CMEs which did not interact strongly with the ambient solar wind ahead were particularly ineffective in a geomagnetic sense

  18. Vulnerability of solar energy infrastructure and output to extreme events: Climate change implications (Conference paper)

    OpenAIRE

    Patt, A.; Pfenninger, S.; Lilliestam, J.

    2010-01-01

    This paper explores the potential vulnerability of solar energy systems to future extreme event risks as a consequence of climate change. We describe the three main technologies likely to be used to harness sunlight -- thermal heating, photovoltaic (PV), and concentrating solar power (CSP) -- and identify critical extreme event vulnerabilities for each one. We then compare these vulnerabilities with assessments of future changes in extreme event risk levels. We do not identify any vulnerabili...

  19. Assessing the Performance of GPS Precise Point Positioning Under Different Geomagnetic Storm Conditions during Solar Cycle 24

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaomin Luo

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The geomagnetic storm, which is an abnormal space weather phenomenon, can sometimes severely affect GPS signal propagation, thereby impacting the performance of GPS precise point positioning (PPP. However, the investigation of GPS PPP accuracy over the global scale under different geomagnetic storm conditions is very limited. This paper for the first time presents the performance of GPS dual-frequency (DF and single-frequency (SF PPP under moderate, intense, and super storms conditions during solar cycle 24 using a large data set collected from about 500 international GNSS services (IGS stations. The global root mean square (RMS maps of GPS PPP results show that stations with degraded performance are mainly distributed at high-latitude, and the degradation level generally depends on the storm intensity. The three-dimensional (3D RMS of GPS DF PPP for high-latitude during moderate, intense, and super storms are 0.393 m, 0.680 m and 1.051 m, respectively, with respect to only 0.163 m on quiet day. RMS errors of mid- and low-latitudes show less dependence on the storm intensities, with values less than 0.320 m, compared to 0.153 m on quiet day. Compared with DF PPP, the performance of GPS SF PPP is inferior regardless of quiet or disturbed conditions. The degraded performance of GPS positioning during geomagnetic storms is attributed to the increased ionospheric disturbances, which have been confirmed by our global rate of TEC index (ROTI maps. Ionospheric disturbances not only lead to the deteriorated ionospheric correction but also to the frequent cycle-slip occurrence. Statistical results show that, compared with that on quiet day, the increased cycle-slip occurrence are 13.04%, 56.52%, and 69.57% under moderate, intense, and super storms conditions, respectively.

  20. Automated detection of geomagnetic storms with heightened risk of GIC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Rachel L.; Leonhardt, Roman

    2016-06-01

    Automated detection of geomagnetic storms is of growing importance to operators of technical infrastructure (e.g., power grids, satellites), which is susceptible to damage caused by the consequences of geomagnetic storms. In this study, we compare three methods for automated geomagnetic storm detection: a method analyzing the first derivative of the geomagnetic variations, another looking at the Akaike information criterion, and a third using multi-resolution analysis of the maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform of the variations. These detection methods are used in combination with an algorithm for the detection of coronal mass ejection shock fronts in ACE solar wind data prior to the storm arrival on Earth as an additional constraint for possible storm detection. The maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform is found to be the most accurate of the detection methods. The final storm detection software, implementing analysis of both satellite solar wind and geomagnetic ground data, detects 14 of 15 more powerful geomagnetic storms over a period of 2 years.

  1. Solar-terrestrial disturbances of June-September 1982, 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumagai, Hiroshi; Ohbu, Kouji; Ouchi, Choshichi; Isobe, Takeshi; Hori, Toshihiro; Ouchi, Eiji

    1985-01-01

    The outline of the solar activity during the period from June to September 1982 is given. During this period, several extremely developed active regions appeared on the solar disk and produced severe solar-terrestrial disturbances which we had not experienced since August 1972. In June and July, significant solar activities were brought about by the active regions 3763, 3776, and 3804. These regions frequently produced large flares of the highest class of importances in both Hsub(a) and X-ray intensities. However, the geomagnetic disturbances scarcely developed in June. The 3B/X7 flare on July 12 occurred in the region 3804 and caused the largest proton event and geomagnetic storm in this solar cycle. In August and September, flare occurrences were fewer than before. The 2B/M6 and 3N/M4 flares occurred in the region 3886 on September 4, and 2B/C9 flare occurred in the region 3907 on September 19. They are considered to cause two major geomagnetic storms which started on September 5 and 21, respectively. It seems remarkable that significant flares which occurred during these periods were produced by the same active region maintaining activities for more than ten solar rotations; 3776, 3804, and 3886 belonged to the same region in different solar rotations. (author)

  2. Prediction of SYM-H index during large storms by NARX neural network from IMF and solar wind data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Cai

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Similar to the Dst index, the SYM-H index may also serve as an indicator of magnetic storm intensity, but having distinct advantage of higher time-resolution. In this study the NARX neural network has been used for the first time to predict SYM-H index from solar wind (SW and IMF parameters. In total 73 time intervals of great storm events with IMF/SW data available from ACE satellite during 1998 to 2006 are used to establish the ANN model. Out of them, 67 are used to train the network and the other 6 samples for test. Additionally, the NARX prediction model is also validated using IMF/SW data from WIND satellite for 7 great storms during 1995–1997 and 2005, as well as for the July 2000 Bastille day storm and November 2001 superstorm using Geotail and OMNI data at 1 AU, respectively. Five interplanetary parameters of IMF Bz, By and total B components along with proton density and velocity of solar wind are used as the original external inputs of the neural network to predict the SYM-H index about one hour ahead. For the 6 test storms registered by ACE including two super-storms of min. SYM-H<−200 nT, the correlation coefficient between observed and NARX network predicted SYM-H is 0.95 as a whole, even as high as 0.95 and 0.98 with average relative variance of 13.2% and 7.4%, respectively, for the two super-storms. The prediction for the 7 storms with WIND data is also satisfactory, showing averaged correlation coefficient about 0.91 and RMSE of 14.2 nT. The newly developed NARX model shows much better capability than Elman network for SYM-H prediction, which can partly be attributed to a key feedback to the input layer from the output neuron with a suitable length (about 120 min. This feedback means that nearly real information of the ring current status is effectively directed to take part in the prediction of SYM-H index by ANN. The proper history length of the output-feedback may mainly reflect

  3. Prediction of SYM-H index during large storms by NARX neural network from IMF and solar wind data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Cai

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Similar to the Dst index, the SYM-H index may also serve as an indicator of magnetic storm intensity, but having distinct advantage of higher time-resolution. In this study the NARX neural network has been used for the first time to predict SYM-H index from solar wind (SW and IMF parameters. In total 73 time intervals of great storm events with IMF/SW data available from ACE satellite during 1998 to 2006 are used to establish the ANN model. Out of them, 67 are used to train the network and the other 6 samples for test. Additionally, the NARX prediction model is also validated using IMF/SW data from WIND satellite for 7 great storms during 1995–1997 and 2005, as well as for the July 2000 Bastille day storm and November 2001 superstorm using Geotail and OMNI data at 1 AU, respectively. Five interplanetary parameters of IMF Bz, By and total B components along with proton density and velocity of solar wind are used as the original external inputs of the neural network to predict the SYM-H index about one hour ahead. For the 6 test storms registered by ACE including two super-storms of min. SYM-H<−200 nT, the correlation coefficient between observed and NARX network predicted SYM-H is 0.95 as a whole, even as high as 0.95 and 0.98 with average relative variance of 13.2% and 7.4%, respectively, for the two super-storms. The prediction for the 7 storms with WIND data is also satisfactory, showing averaged correlation coefficient about 0.91 and RMSE of 14.2 nT. The newly developed NARX model shows much better capability than Elman network for SYM-H prediction, which can partly be attributed to a key feedback to the input layer from the output neuron with a suitable length (about 120 min. This feedback means that nearly real information of the ring current status is effectively directed to take part in the prediction of SYM-H index by ANN. The proper history length of the output-feedback may mainly reflect on average the characteristic time of ring

  4. Statistical Relationship between Sawtooth Oscillations and Geomagnetic Storms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jae-Hun Kim

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available We have investigated a statistical relationship between sawtooth oscillations and geomagnetic storms during 2000-2004. First of all we selected a total of 154 geomagnetic storms based on the Dst index, and distinguished between different drivers such as Coronal Mass Ejection (CME and Co-rotating Interaction Region (CIR. Also, we identified a total of 48 sawtooth oscillation events based on geosynchronous energetic particle data for the same 2000-2004 period. We found that out of the 154 storms identified, 47 storms indicated the presence of sawtooth oscillations. Also, all but one sawtooth event identified occurred during a geomagnetic storm interval. It was also found that sawtooth oscillation events occur more frequently for storms driven by CME (˜62% than for storms driven by CIR (˜30%. In addition, sawtooth oscillations occurred mainly (˜82% in the main phase of storms for CME-driven storms while they occurred mostly (˜78% during the storm recovery phase for CIR-driven storms. Next we have examined the average characteristics of the Bz component of IMF, and solar wind speed, which were the main components for driving geomagnetic storm. We found that for most of the sawtooth events, the IMF Bz corresponds to --15 to 0 nT and the solar wind speed was in the range of 400˜700 km/s. We found that there was a weak tendency that the number of teeth for a given sawtooth event interval was proportional to the southward IMF Bz magnitude.

  5. Magnetic Storms at Mars and Earth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vennerstrøm, Susanne; Falkenberg, Thea Vilstrup

    In analogy with magnetic storms at the Earth, periods of significantly enhanced global magnetic activity also exist at Mars. The extensive database of magnetic measurements from Mars Global Surveyor (MGS), covering almost an entire solar cycle, is used in combination with geomagnetic activity...... indices at Earth to compare the occurrence of magnetic storms at Mars and Earth. Based on superposed epochs analysis the time-development of typical magnetic storms at Mars and Earth is described. In contradiction to storms at Earth, most magnetic storms at Mars are found to be associated...... with heliospheric current sheet crossings, where the IMF changes polarity. While most storms at the Earth occur due to significant southward excursions of the IMF associated with CMEs, at Mars most storms seem to be associated with the density enhancement of the heliospheric current sheet. Density enhancements...

  6. Effects on Storm-Water Management for Three Major US Cities Using Location Specific Extreme Precipitation Dynamical Downscaling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pelle, A.; Allen, M.; Fu, J. S.

    2013-12-01

    With rising population and increasing urban density, it is of pivotal importance for urban planners to plan for increasing extreme precipitation events. Climate models indicate that an increase in global mean temperature will lead to increased frequency and intensity of storms of a variety of types. Analysis of results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) has demonstrated that global climate models severely underestimate precipitation, however. Preliminary results from dynamical downscaling indicate that Philadelphia, Pennsylvania is expected to experience the greatest increase of precipitation due to an increase in annual extreme events in the US. New York City, New York and Chicago, Illinois are anticipated to have similarly large increases in annual extreme precipitation events. In order to produce more accurate results, we downscale Philadelphia, Chicago, and New York City using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). We analyze historical precipitation data and WRF output utilizing a Log Pearson Type III (LP3) distribution for frequency of extreme precipitation events. This study aims to determine the likelihood of extreme precipitation in future years and its effect on the of cost of stormwater management for these three cities.

  7. On the effects of solar storms to the decaying orbital space debris

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herdiwijaya, Dhani; Rachman, Abdul

    2014-01-01

    Any man-made object in Earth's orbit that no longer serves a useful purpose is classified as orbital debris. Debris objects come from a variety of sources. The majority is related to satellite fragmentation. Other major sources of debris are propulsion systems, and fragmentation of spent upper stages, payload and mission related debris. Serious concern about orbital debris has been growing. Knowledge of the future debris environment is important to both satellite designers, and mission planners, who need to know what hazards a satellite might encounter during the course of its mission. Therefore, it is important to know how much debris is in orbit, where it is located, and when it will decay. The debris environment is complex and dynamically evolving. Objects of different shape and size behave differently in orbit. The geoeffectiveness space environments include solar flux at 10.7 cm, solar energetic particles flux or speed, solar wind flow pressure, electric field, and geomagnetic indices. We study the decaying orbital debris from Tracking and Impact Prediction (TIP) messages in conjuction with geoeffectiveness space environments through time epoch correlation. We found that the decaying and reentry orbital debris are triggered by space environment enhancement within at least one week before reentry. It is not necessary a transient or high energetic and severe solar storm events are needed in decaying processes. We propose that the gradual enhancement processes of space environment will cause satellite surface charging due to energetic electron and enhance drag force

  8. On the effects of solar storms to the decaying orbital space debris

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herdiwijaya, Dhani, E-mail: dhani@as.itb.ac.id [Astronomy Division and Bosscha Observatory, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Bandung Institute of Technology, Ganesha 10, Bandung 40132 (Indonesia); Rachman, Abdul [Space Science Center, National Institute of Aeronautics and Space, Junjunan 133, Bandung 40173 (Indonesia)

    2014-03-24

    Any man-made object in Earth's orbit that no longer serves a useful purpose is classified as orbital debris. Debris objects come from a variety of sources. The majority is related to satellite fragmentation. Other major sources of debris are propulsion systems, and fragmentation of spent upper stages, payload and mission related debris. Serious concern about orbital debris has been growing. Knowledge of the future debris environment is important to both satellite designers, and mission planners, who need to know what hazards a satellite might encounter during the course of its mission. Therefore, it is important to know how much debris is in orbit, where it is located, and when it will decay. The debris environment is complex and dynamically evolving. Objects of different shape and size behave differently in orbit. The geoeffectiveness space environments include solar flux at 10.7 cm, solar energetic particles flux or speed, solar wind flow pressure, electric field, and geomagnetic indices. We study the decaying orbital debris from Tracking and Impact Prediction (TIP) messages in conjuction with geoeffectiveness space environments through time epoch correlation. We found that the decaying and reentry orbital debris are triggered by space environment enhancement within at least one week before reentry. It is not necessary a transient or high energetic and severe solar storm events are needed in decaying processes. We propose that the gradual enhancement processes of space environment will cause satellite surface charging due to energetic electron and enhance drag force.

  9. Observations and predictions of wave runup, extreme water levels, and medium-term dune erosion during storm conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Suanez , Serge ,; Cancouët , Romain; Floc'h , France; Blaise , Emmanuel; Ardhuin , Fabrice; Filipot , Jean-François; Cariolet , Jean-Marie; Delacourt , Christophe

    2015-01-01

    Monitoring of dune erosion and accretion on the high-energy macrotidal Vougot beach in North Brittany (France) over the past decade (2004–2014) has revealed significant morphological changes. Dune toe erosion/accretion records have been compared with extreme water level measurements, defined as the sum of (i) astronomic tide; (ii) storm surge; and (iii) vertical wave runup. Runup parameterization was conducted using swash limits, beach profiles, and hydrodynamic (Hm0, Tm0,–1, and high tide wa...

  10. Role of the lifetime of ring current particles on the solar wind-magnetosphere power transfer during the intense geomagnetic storm of 28 August 1978

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez, W.D.; Gonzalez, A.L.C.; Lee, L.C.

    1990-01-01

    For the intense magnetic storms of 28 August 1978 it is shown that the power transfer from the solar wind to the magnetosphere is well represented by the expression obtained by Vasyliunas et al. (1982, Planet. Space Sci. 30, 359) from dimensional analysis, but this representation becomes improved when such an expression is modified by a factor due to an influence of the lifetime of ring current particles as suggested by Lee and Akasofu (1984, Planet. Space Sci. 32, 1423). During a steady state regime of the ring current evolution of this storm, our study suggests that the power transfer depends on the solar wind density, the transverse component of the IMF (Interplanetary magnetic field) (with respect to the Sun-Earth line) and also, explicitly, on the time constant for ring current energy decay, but not on the solar wind speed. (author)

  11. Patterns of Storm Injury and Tree Response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin Smith; Walter Shortle; Kenneth Dudzik

    2001-01-01

    The ice storm of January 1998 in the northeastern United States and adjacent Canada was an extreme example of severe weather that injures trees every year. Broken branches, split branch forks, and snapped stems are all examples of storm injury.

  12. Assessing storm events for energy meteorology: using media and scientific reports to track a North Sea autumn storm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kettle, Anthony

    2016-04-01

    Important issues for energy meteorology are to assess meteorological conditions for normal operating conditions and extreme events for the ultimate limit state of engineering structures. For the offshore environment in northwest Europe, energy meteorology encompasses weather conditions relevant for petroleum production infrastructure and also the new field of offshore wind energy production. Autumn and winter storms are an important issue for offshore operations in the North Sea. The weather in this region is considered as challenging for extreme meteorological events as the Gulf of Mexico with its attendant hurricane risk. The rise of the Internet and proliferation of digital recording devices has placed a much greater amount of information in the public domain than was available to national meteorological agencies even 20 years ago. This contribution looks at reports of meteorology and infrastructure damage from a storm in the autumn of 2006 to trace the spatial and temporal record of meteorological events. Media reports give key information to assess the events of the storm. The storm passed over northern Europe between Oct.31-Nov. 2, 2006, and press reports from the time indicate that its most important feature was a high surge that inundated coastal areas. Sections of the Dutch and German North Sea coast were affected, and there was record flooding in Denmark and East Germany in the southern Baltic Sea. Extreme wind gusts were also reported that were strong enough to damage roofs and trees, and there was even tornado recorded near the Dutch-German border. Offshore, there were a series of damage reports from ship and platforms that were linked with sea state, and reports of rogue waves were explicitly mentioned. Many regional government authorities published summaries of geophysical information related to the storm, and these form part of a regular series of online winter storm reports that started as a public service about 15 years ago. Depending on the

  13. Statistical Analysis of Solar Events Associated with Storm Sudden Commencements over One Year of Solar Maximum During Cycle 23: Propagation from the Sun to the Earth and Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bocchialini, K.; Grison, B.; Menvielle, M.; Chambodut, A.; Cornilleau-Wehrlin, N.; Fontaine, D.; Marchaudon, A.; Pick, M.; Pitout, F.; Schmieder, B.; Régnier, S.; Zouganelis, I.

    2018-05-01

    Taking the 32 storm sudden commencements (SSCs) listed by the International Service of Geomagnetic Indices (ISGI) of the Observatory de l'Ebre during 2002 (solar activity maximum in Cycle 23) as a starting point, we performed a multi-criterion analysis based on observations (propagation time, velocity comparisons, sense of the magnetic field rotation, radio waves) to associate them with solar sources, identified their effects in the interplanetary medium, and looked at the response of the terrestrial ionized and neutral environment. We find that 28 SSCs can be related to 44 coronal mass ejections (CMEs), 15 with a unique CME and 13 with a series of multiple CMEs, among which 19 (68%) involved halo CMEs. Twelve of the 19 fastest CMEs with speeds greater than 1000 km s-1 are halo CMEs. For the 44 CMEs, including 21 halo CMEs, the corresponding X-ray flare classes are: 3 X-class, 19 M-class, and 22 C-class flares. The probability for an SSC to occur is 75% if the CME is a halo CME. Among the 500, or even more, front-side, non-halo CMEs recorded in 2002, only 23 could be the source of an SSC, i.e. 5%. The complex interactions between two (or more) CMEs and the modification of their trajectories have been examined using joint white-light and multiple-wavelength radio observations. The detection of long-lasting type IV bursts observed at metric-hectometric wavelengths is a very useful criterion for the CME-SSC events association. The events associated with the most depressed Dst values are also associated with type IV radio bursts. The four SSCs associated with a single shock at L1 correspond to four radio events exhibiting characteristics different from type IV radio bursts. The solar-wind structures at L1 after the 32 SSCs are 12 magnetic clouds (MCs), 6 interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) without an MC structure, 4 miscellaneous structures, which cannot unambiguously be classified as ICMEs, 5 corotating or stream interaction regions (CIRs/SIRs), one CIR

  14. Decadal variability of extreme wave height representing storm severity in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea since the foundation of the Royal Society

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santo, H.; Taylor, P. H.; Gibson, R.

    2016-09-01

    Long-term estimation of extreme wave height remains a key challenge because of the short duration of available wave data, and also because of the possible impact of climate variability on ocean waves. Here, we analyse storm-based statistics to obtain estimates of extreme wave height at locations in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea using the NORA10 wave hindcast (1958-2011), and use a 5 year sliding window to examine temporal variability. The decadal variability is correlated to the North Atlantic oscillation and other atmospheric modes, using a six-term predictor model incorporating the climate indices and their Hilbert transforms. This allows reconstruction of the historic extreme climate back to 1661, using a combination of known and proxy climate indices. Significant decadal variability primarily driven by the North Atlantic oscillation is observed, and this should be considered for the long-term survivability of offshore structures and marine renewable energy devices. The analysis on wave climate reconstruction reveals that the variation of the mean, 99th percentile and extreme wave climates over decadal time scales for locations close to the dominant storm tracks in the open North Atlantic are comparable, whereas the wave climates for the rest of the locations including the North Sea are rather different.

  15. Apparent Relations Between Solar Activity and Solar Tides Caused by the Planets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Ching-Cheh

    2007-01-01

    A solar storm is a storm of ions and electrons from the Sun. Large solar storms are usually preceded by solar flares, phenomena that can be characterized quantitatively from Earth. Twenty-five of the thirty-eight largest known solar flares were observed to start when one or more tide-producing planets (Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Jupiter) were either nearly above the event positions (less than 10 deg. longitude) or at the opposing side of the Sun. The probability for this to happen at random is 0.039 percent. This supports the hypothesis that the force or momentum balance (between the solar atmospheric pressure, the gravity field, and magnetic field) on plasma in the looping magnetic field lines in solar corona could be disturbed by tides, resulting in magnetic field reconnection, solar flares, and solar storms. Separately, from the daily position data of Venus, Earth, and Jupiter, an 11-year planet alignment cycle is observed to approximately match the sunspot cycle. This observation supports the hypothesis that the resonance and beat between the solar tide cycle and nontidal solar activity cycle influences the sunspot cycle and its varying magnitudes. The above relations between the unpredictable solar flares and the predictable solar tidal effects could be used and further developed to forecast the dangerous space weather and therefore reduce its destructive power against the humans in space and satellites controlling mobile phones and global positioning satellite (GPS) systems.

  16. Effects of Solar Activity and Space Environment in 2003 Oct.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyung-Seok Cho

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present a good example of extreme solar and geomagnetic activities from October to November, 2003. These activities are characterized by very large sunspot groups, X-class solar flares, strong particle events, and huge geomagnetic storms. We discuss ground-based and space-based data in terms of space weather scales. Especially, we present several solar and geomagnetic disturbance data produced in Korea : sunspots, geo-magnetograms, aurora, Ionogram, and Total Electron Content (TEC map by GPS data. Finally, we introduce some examples of the satellite orbit and communication effects caused by these activities; e.g., the disturbances of the KOMPSAT-1 operational orbit and HF communication.

  17. Impacts on coralligenous outcrop biodiversity of a dramatic coastal storm.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Núria Teixidó

    Full Text Available Extreme events are rare, stochastic perturbations that can cause abrupt and dramatic ecological change within a short period of time relative to the lifespan of organisms. Studies over time provide exceptional opportunities to detect the effects of extreme climatic events and to measure their impacts by quantifying rates of change at population and community levels. In this study, we show how an extreme storm event affected the dynamics of benthic coralligenous outcrops in the NW Mediterranean Sea using data acquired before (2006-2008 and after the impact (2009-2010 at four different sites. Storms of comparable severity have been documented to occur occasionally within periods of 50 years in the Mediterranean Sea. We assessed the effects derived from the storm comparing changes in benthic community composition at sites exposed to and sheltered from this extreme event. The sites analyzed showed different damage from severe to negligible. The most exposed and impacted site experienced a major shift immediately after the storm, represented by changes in the species richness and beta diversity of benthic species. This site also showed higher compositional variability immediately after the storm and over the following year. The loss of cover of benthic species resulted between 22% and 58%. The damage across these species (e.g. calcareous algae, sponges, anthozoans, bryozoans, tunicates was uneven, and those with fragile forms were the most impacted, showing cover losses up to 50 to 100%. Interestingly, small patches survived after the storm and began to grow slightly during the following year. In contrast, sheltered sites showed no significant changes in all the studied parameters, indicating no variations due to the storm. This study provides new insights into the responses to large and rare extreme events of Mediterranean communities with low dynamics and long-lived species, which are among the most threatened by the effects of global change.

  18. Evaluation of geomagnetic storm effects on the GPS derived Total Electron Content (TEC)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Purohit, P K; Atulkar, Roshni; Mansoori, Azad A; Khan, Parvaiz A; Bhawre, Purushottam; Tripathi, Sharad C; Khatarkar, Prakash; Bhardwaj, Shivangi; Aslam, A M; Waheed, Malik A; Gwal, A K

    2015-01-01

    The geomagnetic storm represents the most outstanding example of solar wind- magnetospheric interaction, which causes global disturbances in the geomagnetic field as well as triggers ionospheric disturbances. We study the behaviour of ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) during the geomagnetic storms. For this investigation we have selected 47 intense geomagnetic storms (Dst ≤ -100nT) that were observed during the solar cycle 23 i.e. during 1998- 2006. We then categorized these storms into four categories depending upon their solar sources like Magnetic Cloud (MC), Co-rotating Interaction Region (CIR), SH+ICME and SH+MC. We then studied the behaviour of ionospheric TEC at a mid latitude station Usuda (36.13N, 138.36E), Japan during these storm events produced by four different solar sources. During our study we found that the smooth variations in TEC are replaced by rapid fluctuations and the value of TEC is strongly enhanced during the time of these storms belonging to all the four categories. However, the greatest enhancements in TEC are produced during those geomagnetic storms which are either caused by Sheath driven Magnetic cloud (SH+MC) or Sheath driven ICME (SH+ICME). We also derived the correlation between the TEC enhancements produced during storms of each category with the minimum Dst. We found the strongest correlation exists for the SH+ICME category followed by SH+MC, MC and finally CIR. Since the most intense storms were either caused by SH+ICME or SH+MC while the least intense storms were caused by CIR, consequently the correlation was strongest with SH+ICME and SH+MC and least with CIR. (paper)

  19. Role of neutral wind and storm time electric fields inferred from the storm time ionization distribution at low latitudes: in-situ measurements by Indian satellite SROSS-C2

    OpenAIRE

    Subrahmanyam , P.; Jain , A. R.; Singh , L.; Garg , S. C.

    2005-01-01

    Recently, there has been a renewal of interest in the study of the effects of solar weather events on the ionization redistribution and irregularity generation. The observed changes at low and equatorial latitudes are rather complex and are noted to be a function of location, the time of the storm onset and its intensity, and various other characteristics of the geomagnetic storms triggered by solar weather events. At these latitudes, the effects of geomagnetic storms are basically due to (a)...

  20. Magnetic storm injection of 0.9- to 16-keV/e solar and terrestrial ions into the high-altitude magnetosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balsiger, H.; Eberhardt, P.; Geiss, J.; Young, D.T.

    1980-01-01

    The Geos 1 ion composition experiments has surveyed the plasma composition in the energy per charge range below 16 keV/e at all local times and at L=3--8. During quiet and moderately disturbed times, H + is the dominant species with a few percent of heavy (M/Q>1) ions. Substorms and storms increase the relative amount of heavy ions, and occasionally, they can become the dominant species in the outer magnetosphere. Two sources, the solar wind (characterized by 4 He ++ ) and the ionosphere (characterized by O + ), give on the average comparable contributions to storm time plasma, although in individual storms one or the other may dominate. Data presented here suggest that high-altitude thermal plasma or the plasmasphere (characterized by He + and O ++ ) must be considered as a third source. Under storm conditions with Geos in the dawn-noon local time sector we have observed a mixed composition region just inside the magnetopause where high fluxes of H + , He ++ , O + , and occasionally He + ions are present. During several storms a composition profile could be measured down to Lapprox.3. Both O + and He + increase toward low altitudes, and O + (within our energy range) can become dominant at the inner edge of the ring current. On April 30, 1978, during a storm, O + contributed > or approx. =8% to the total local energy density of the ring current particles at L=4.1. In no storm has He + been observed to be the main constituent during the recovery phase. During storm recovery, H + and O + are the dominant ions, the H + /O + ratio remaining constant or even increasing during the days following the main phase of the storms. This suggests that charge exchange is not the only loss mechanism for the storm time ring current and/or that H + is replenished during the recovery phase

  1. Eruptive prominences and long-delay geomagnetic storms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wright, C.S.

    1983-01-01

    The relationship between disappearing solar fragments and geomagnetic disturbances was investigated. It is shown that long-delay storms are associated with filaments well removed from the disc centre, and particularly in the case of large filaments and prominences, the proportion of events that produce long-delay storms increases with angular distance from the centre

  2. Solar-terrestrial disturbances in June-September 1982, 5

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ondoh, Tadanori

    1985-01-01

    The x-ray detector on the SMS-GOES satellite observed 77 solar x-ray flares (1 - 8A) with flux above 10 -5 W/m 2 in June, 1982, and 33 SIDs with importance above 2 were observed in Hiraiso, Japan. However, the geomagnetic storm with Dst above 100 nT did not occur at that time since most solar flares occurred near the east rim of the sun. These solar active regions lasted for 5 solar rotations, then, the great geomagnetic storms with Dst above 100 nT occurred on July 13 - 15, September 5 - 7 and September 21 - 23, 1982. These geomagnetic storms were preceded by the solar flares of importance above 2B occurred in the central part of the solar disc. From September 26 to 27, 1982, a great geomagnetic storm which was not accompanied by solar flare occurred. This paper summarized the studies on solar-terrestrial events from June to September, 1982, made by the space physics and aeronomy groups of the Radio Research Laboratories, Japan. The solar flares occurred on July 12, September 4 and 19, 1982, the geomagnetic storms corresponding to them, the cosmic ray storms observed on July 13 - 19, September 6 - 9 and 21 - 26, 1982, global equivalent current system and others are reported. (Kako, I.)

  3. Coronal mass ejections, interplanetary shocks in relation with forbush decreases associated with intense geomagnetic storms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verma, P L; Patel, Nand Kumar; Prajapati, Mateswari

    2014-01-01

    Coronal mass ejections (CMEs} are the most energetic solar events in which large amount of solar plasma materials are ejected from the sun into heliosphere, causing major disturbances in solar wind plasma, Interplanetary shocks, Forbush decrease(Fds) in cosmic ray intensity and geomagnetic storms. We have studied Forbush decreases associated with intense geomagnetic storms observed at Oulu super neutron monitor, during the period of May 1998-Dec 2006 with coronal mass ejections (CMEs), X-ray solar flares and interplanetary shocks. We have found that all the (100%) Forbush decreases associated with intense geomagnetic storms are associated with halo and partial halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The association rate between halo and partial halo coronal mass ejections are found 96.00%and 04.00% respectively. Most of the Forbush decreases associated with intense geomagnetic storms (96.29%) are associated with X-ray solar flares of different categories . The association rates for X-Class, M-Class, and C- Class X -ray solar flares are found 34.62%, 50.00% and 15.38% respectively .Further we have concluded that majority of the Forbush decrease associated with intense geomagnetic storms are related to interplanetary shocks (92.30 %) and the related shocks are forward shocks. We have found positive co-relation with co-relation co-efficient .7025 between magnitudes of Forbush decreases associated with intense geomagnetic storms and speed of associated coronal mass ejections. Positive co-relation with co-relation co-efficient 0.48 has also been found between magnitudes of intense geomagnetic storms and speed of associated coronal mass ejections.

  4. A study of solar and interplanetary parameters of CMEs causing major geomagnetic storms during SC 23

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Oprea

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we analyse 25 Earth-directed and strongly geoeffective interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs which occurred during solar cycle 23, using data provided by instruments on SOHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, ACE (Advanced Composition Explorer and geomagnetic stations. We also examine the in situ parameters, the energy transfer into magnetosphere, and the geomagnetic indexes. We compare observed travel times with those calculated by observed speeds projected into the plane of the sky and de-projected by a simple model. The best fit was found with the projected speeds. No correlation was found between the importance of a flare and the geomagnetic Dst (disturbance storm time index. By comparing the in situ parameters with the Dst index we find a strong connection between some of these parameters (such as Bz, Bs · V and the energy transfer into the magnetosphere with the strength of the geomagnetic storm. No correlation was found with proton density and plasma temperature. A superposed epoch analysis revealed a strong dependence of the Dst index on the southward component of interplanetary magnetic field, Bz, and to the Akasofu coupling function, which evaluates the energy transfer between the ICME and the magnetosphere. The analysis also showed that the geomagnetic field at higher latitudes is disturbed before the field around the Earth's equator.

  5. Solar PV Power Forecasting Using Extreme Learning Machine and Information Fusion

    OpenAIRE

    Le Cadre , Hélène; Aravena , Ignacio; Papavasiliou , Anthony

    2015-01-01

    International audience; We provide a learning algorithm combining distributed Extreme Learning Machine and an information fusion rule based on the ag-gregation of experts advice, to build day ahead probabilistic solar PV power production forecasts. These forecasts use, apart from the current day solar PV power production, local meteorological inputs, the most valuable of which is shown to be precipitation. Experiments are then run in one French region, Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, to evaluate ...

  6. Extreme total solar irradiance due to cloud enhancement at sea level of the NE Atlantic coast of Brazil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piacentini, Ruben D. [Instituto de Fisica Rosario (CONICET-Universidad Nacional de Rosario), 27 de Febrero 210bis, 2000 Rosario (Argentina); Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Ingenieria y Agrimensura, Universidad Nacional de Rosario, Pellegrini 250, 2000 Rosario (Argentina); Salum, Graciela M. [Instituto de Fisica Rosario (CONICET-Universidad Nacional de Rosario), 27 de Febrero 210bis, 2000 Rosario (Argentina); Facultad Regional Concepcion del Uruguay, Universidad Tecnologica Nacional, Concepcion del Uruguay (Argentina); Fraidenraich, Naum; Tiba, Chigueru [Grupo de Pesquisas em Fontes Alternativas de Energia, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Av. Prof. Luiz Freire, 1000 - 50.740-540, Recife, PE (Brazil)

    2011-01-15

    Extraterrestrial total solar irradiance, usually called Solar Constant, is attenuated by the atmosphere in different proportions, depending mainly on solar zenith angle and altitude of the measurement point. In this work, it is presented very high and extreme horizontal plane measurements of global solar irradiance that in some days overpassed the Solar Constant corrected by the actual Sun-Earth distance (CSC). They were obtained at sea level of the intertropical Atlantic coast, in the city of Recife, Brazil, in the period February 2008-January 2009. Extreme total solar irradiance values larger than CSC were measured during 3.4% of the days of the total registered period. This percentage increases to 7.4% for global solar irradiance within 95.1-100% of the CSC and to 15.3% within 90.1-95% of the CSC. The largest extreme total solar irradiance value, 1477 {+-} 30 W/m{sup 2}, was registered the 28th of March 2008 at 11:34 local time (UT - 3h). It overpassed by 7.9% the CSC value for this day (1369.4 W/m{sup 2}) and by 42.3% the estimated value of the clear sky Iqbal C radiation model (1037.7 W/m{sup 2}). The observation of extreme values should be taken into account in the study of solar radiation effects related to materials exposed to the outside, UV index and biological effects, among others. Also, the detailed knowledge of this interesting effect may contribute significantly to clarify physical aspects about the interaction of global solar radiation with the ecosystem and climate change. (author)

  7. An operational integrated short-term warning solution for solar radiation storms: introducing the Forecasting Solar Particle Events and Flares (FORSPEF) system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anastasiadis, Anastasios; Sandberg, Ingmar; Papaioannou, Athanasios; Georgoulis, Manolis; Tziotziou, Kostas; Jiggens, Piers; Hilgers, Alain

    2015-04-01

    We present a novel integrated prediction system, of both solar flares and solar energetic particle (SEP) events, which is in place to provide short-term warnings for hazardous solar radiation storms. FORSPEF system provides forecasting of solar eruptive events, such as solar flares with a projection to coronal mass ejections (CMEs) (occurrence and velocity) and the likelihood of occurrence of a SEP event. It also provides nowcasting of SEP events based on actual solar flare and CME near real-time alerts, as well as SEP characteristics (peak flux, fluence, rise time, duration) per parent solar event. The prediction of solar flares relies on a morphological method which is based on the sophisticated derivation of the effective connected magnetic field strength (Beff) of potentially flaring active-region (AR) magnetic configurations and it utilizes analysis of a large number of AR magnetograms. For the prediction of SEP events a new reductive statistical method has been implemented based on a newly constructed database of solar flares, CMEs and SEP events that covers a large time span from 1984-2013. The method is based on flare location (longitude), flare size (maximum soft X-ray intensity), and the occurrence (or not) of a CME. Warnings are issued for all > C1.0 soft X-ray flares. The warning time in the forecasting scheme extends to 24 hours with a refresh rate of 3 hours while the respective warning time for the nowcasting scheme depends on the availability of the near real-time data and falls between 15-20 minutes. We discuss the modules of the FORSPEF system, their interconnection and the operational set up. The dual approach in the development of FORPSEF (i.e. forecasting and nowcasting scheme) permits the refinement of predictions upon the availability of new data that characterize changes on the Sun and the interplanetary space, while the combined usage of solar flare and SEP forecasting methods upgrades FORSPEF to an integrated forecasting solution. This

  8. CAWSES November 7-8, 2004, Superstorm: Complex Solar and Interplanetary Features in the Post-Solar Maximum Phase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsurutani, Bruce T.; Echer, Ezequiel; Guarnieri, Fernando L.; Kozyra, J. U.

    2008-01-01

    The complex interplanetary structures during 7 to 8 Nov 2004 are analyzed to identify their properties as well as resultant geomagnetic effects and the solar origins. Three fast forward shocks, three directional discontinuities and two reverse waves were detected and analyzed in detail. The three fast forward shocks 'pump' up the interplanetary magnetic field from a value of approx.4 nT to 44 nT. However, the fields after the shocks were northward, and magnetic storms did not result. The three ram pressure increases were associated with major sudden impulses (SI + s) at Earth. A magnetic cloud followed the third forward shock and the southward Bz associated with the latter was responsible for the superstorm. Two reverse waves were detected, one at the edge and one near the center of the magnetic cloud (MC). It is suspected that these 'waves' were once reverse shocks which were becoming evanescent when they propagated into the low plasma beta MC. The second reverse wave caused a decrease in the southward component of the IMF and initiated the storm recovery phase. It is determined that flares located at large longitudinal distances from the subsolar point were the most likely causes of the first two shocks without associated magnetic clouds. It is thus unlikely that the shocks were 'blast waves' or that magnetic reconnection eroded away the two associated MCs. This interplanetary/solar event is an example of the extremely complex magnetic storms which can occur in the post-solar maximum phase.

  9. Modeling atmospheric effects of the September 1859 Solar Flare

    OpenAIRE

    Thomas, Brian; Jackman, Charles; Melott, Adrian

    2006-01-01

    We have modeled atmospheric effects, especially ozone depletion, due to a solar proton event which probably accompanied the extreme magnetic storm of 1-2 September 1859. We use an inferred proton fluence for this event as estimated from nitrate levels in Greenland ice cores. We present results showing production of odd nitrogen compounds and their impact on ozone. We also compute rainout of nitrate in our model and compare to values from ice core data.

  10. Solar filament impact on 21 January 2005: Geospace consequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozyra, J. U.; Liemohn, M. W.; Cattell, C.; De Zeeuw, D.; Escoubet, C. P.; Evans, D. S.; Fang, X.; Fok, M.-C.; Frey, H. U.; Gonzalez, W. D.; Hairston, M.; Heelis, R.; Lu, G.; Manchester, W. B.; Mende, S.; Paxton, L. J.; Rastaetter, L.; Ridley, A.; Sandanger, M.; Soraas, F.; Sotirelis, T.; Thomsen, M. W.; Tsurutani, B. T.; Verkhoglyadova, O.

    2014-07-01

    On 21 January 2005, a moderate magnetic storm produced a number of anomalous features, some seen more typically during superstorms. The aim of this study is to establish the differences in the space environment from what we expect (and normally observe) for a storm of this intensity, which make it behave in some ways like a superstorm. The storm was driven by one of the fastest interplanetary coronal mass ejections in solar cycle 23, containing a piece of the dense erupting solar filament material. The momentum of the massive solar filament caused it to push its way through the flux rope as the interplanetary coronal mass ejection decelerated moving toward 1 AU creating the appearance of an eroded flux rope (see companion paper by Manchester et al. (2014)) and, in this case, limiting the intensity of the resulting geomagnetic storm. On impact, the solar filament further disrupted the partial ring current shielding in existence at the time, creating a brief superfountain in the equatorial ionosphere—an unusual occurrence for a moderate storm. Within 1 h after impact, a cold dense plasma sheet (CDPS) formed out of the filament material. As the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) rotated from obliquely to more purely northward, the magnetotail transformed from an open to a closed configuration and the CDPS evolved from warmer to cooler temperatures. Plasma sheet densities reached tens per cubic centimeter along the flanks—high enough to inflate the magnetotail in the simulation under northward IMF conditions despite the cool temperatures. Observational evidence for this stretching was provided by a corresponding expansion and intensification of both the auroral oval and ring current precipitation zones linked to magnetotail stretching by field line curvature scattering. Strong Joule heating in the cusps, a by-product of the CDPS formation process, contributed to an equatorward neutral wind surge that reached low latitudes within 1-2 h and intensified the

  11. EIT: Solar corona synoptic observations from SOHO with an Extreme-ultraviolet Imaging Telescope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delaboudiniere, J. P.; Gabriel, A. H.; Artzner, G. E.; Michels, D. J.; Dere, K. P.; Howard, R. A.; Catura, R.; Stern, R.; Lemen, J.; Neupert, W.

    1988-01-01

    The Extreme-ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) of SOHO (solar and heliospheric observatory) will provide full disk images in emission lines formed at temperatures that map solar structures ranging from the chromospheric network to the hot magnetically confined plasma in the corona. Images in four narrow bandpasses will be obtained using normal incidence multilayered optics deposited on quadrants of a Ritchey-Chretien telescope. The EIT is capable of providing a uniform one arc second resolution over its entire 50 by 50 arc min field of view. Data from the EIT will be extremely valuable for identifying and interpreting the spatial and temperature fine structures of the solar atmosphere. Temporal analysis will provide information on the stability of these structures and identify dynamical processes. EIT images, issued daily, will provide the global corona context for aid in unifying the investigations and in forming the observing plans for SOHO coronal instruments.

  12. Interplanetary sources of magnetic storms: A statistical study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vennerstrøm, Susanne

    2001-01-01

    Magnetic storms are mainly caused by the occurrence of intense southward magnetic fields in the interplanetary medium. These fields can be formed directly either by ejection of magnetic structures from the Sun or by stream interaction processes during solar wind propagation. In the present study we...... examine 30 years of satellite measurement of the solar wind during magnetic storms, with the aim of estimating the relative importance of these two processes. We use the solar wind proton temperature relative to the temperature expected from the empirical relation to the solar wind speed T......-p/T-exp, together with the speed gradient, and the interplanetary magnetic field azimuth in the ecliptic, in order to distinguish between the two processes statistically. We find that compression due to stream interaction is at least as important as the direct effect of ejection of intense fields, and probably more...

  13. Interplanetary sources to magnetic storms - A statistical study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vennerstrøm, Susanne

    2001-01-01

    Magnetic storms are mainly caused by the occurrence of intense southward magnetic fields in the interplanetary medium. These fields can be formed directly either by ejection of magnetic structures from the Sun or by stream interaction processes during solar wind propagation. In the present study we...... examine 30 years of satellite measurement of the solar wind during magnetic storms, with the aim of estimating the relative importance of these two processes. We use the solar wind proton temperature relative to the temperature expected from the empirical relation to the solar wind speed Tp/Texp, together...... with the speed gradient, and the interplanetary magnetic field azimuth in the ecliptic, in order to distinguish between the two processes statistically. We find that compression due to stream interaction is at least as important as the direct effect of ejection of intense fields, and probably more so. Only...

  14. Extreme Value Analysis of Induced Geoelectric Field in South Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lotz, S. I.; Danskin, D. W.

    2017-10-01

    Extreme geomagnetic disturbances occur rarely but can have great impact on technological systems such as power supply networks. Long-term planning for extreme events requires the estimation of event impact for occurrence periods greater than the length of observed data. With this in mind an analysis of extreme geomagnetic events observed in South Africa (middle geomagnetic latitude) is performed over four solar cycles (1974-2015). An algorithm to identify active periods with minimum SYM-H ≤-100 nT is demonstrated. The sum of induced electric field over the course of each event is used to characterize the severity of each active period. It is found that the severity index (accumulated electric field magnitude ΣE) shares a highly linear relationship with accumulated SYM-H over each event. The index ΣE is lognormal distributed, with tail deviating greater than lognormal, confirming heavy-tailed occurrence. A general Pareto distribution is fitted to the tail of the distribution and extrapolated to calculate the return levels of extreme events. Return levels of once in 100 and once in 200 year events are estimated to be 9.4 × 104 mV/km min and 1.09 × 105 mV/km min, respectively. The top three events, in ascending order of severity, are the March 1989 storm, the events of late October 2003, and the April 1994 event—a long interval of coronal-hole driven disturbances, bookended by two intense geomagnetic storms.

  15. Interplanetary ions during an energetic storm particle event - The distribution function from solar wind thermal energies to 1.6 MeV

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gosling, J. T.; Asbridge, J. R.; Bame, S. J.; Feldman, W. C.; Zwickl, R. D.; Paschmann, G.; Sckopke, N.; Hynds, R. J.

    1981-01-01

    An ion velocity distribution function of the postshock phase of an energetic storm particle (ESP) event is obtained from data from the ISEE 2 and ISEE 3 experiments. The distribution function is roughly isotropic in the solar wind frame from solar wind thermal energies to 1.6 MeV. The ESP event studied (8/27/78) is superposed upon a more energetic particle event which was predominantly field-aligned and which was probably of solar origin. The observations suggest that the ESP population is accelerated directly out of the solar wind thermal population or its quiescent suprathermal tail by a stochastic process associated with shock wave disturbance. The acceleration mechanism is sufficiently efficient so that approximately 1% of the solar wind population is accelerated to suprathermal energies. These suprathermal particles have an energy density of approximately 290 eV cubic centimeters.

  16. Multidecadal Scale Detection Time for Potentially Increasing Atlantic Storm Surges in a Warming Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Benjamin Seiyon; Haran, Murali; Keller, Klaus

    2017-10-01

    Storm surges are key drivers of coastal flooding, which generate considerable risks. Strategies to manage these risks can hinge on the ability to (i) project the return periods of extreme storm surges and (ii) detect potential changes in their statistical properties. There are several lines of evidence linking rising global average temperatures and increasingly frequent extreme storm surges. This conclusion is, however, subject to considerable structural uncertainty. This leads to two main questions: What are projections under various plausible statistical models? How long would it take to distinguish among these plausible statistical models? We address these questions by analyzing observed and simulated storm surge data. We find that (1) there is a positive correlation between global mean temperature rise and increasing frequencies of extreme storm surges; (2) there is considerable uncertainty underlying the strength of this relationship; and (3) if the frequency of storm surges is increasing, this increase can be detected within a multidecadal timescale (≈20 years from now).

  17. A Regional GPS Receiver Network For Monitoring Mid-latitude Total Electron Content During Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vernon, A.; Cander, Lj. R.

    A regional GPS receiver network has been used for monitoring mid-latitude total elec- tron content (TEC) during ionospheric storms at the current solar maximum. Differ- ent individual storms were examined to study how the temporal patterns of changes develop and how they are related to solar and geomagnetic activity for parameter de- scriptive of plasmaspheric-ionospheric ionisation. Use is then made of computer con- touring techniques to produce snapshot maps of TEC for different study cases. Com- parisons with the local ionosonde data at different phases of the storms enable the storm developments to be studied in detail.

  18. Extreme Worlds of the Outer Solar System: Dynamic Processes on Uranus & Io

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleer, Katherine Rebecca de

    A central goal of planetary science is the creation of a framework within which the properties of each solar system body can be understood as the product of initial conditions acted on by fundamental physical processes. The solar system's extreme worlds -- those objects that lie at the far ends of the spectrum in terms of planetary environment -- bring to light our misconceptions and present us with opportunities to expand and generalize this framework. Unraveling the processes at work in diverse planetary environments contextualizes our understanding of Earth, and provides a basis for interpreting specific signatures from planets beyond our own solar system. Uranus and Io, with their unusual planetary environments, present two examples of such worlds in the outer solar system. Uranus, one of the outer solar system's ice giants, produces an anomalously low heat flow and orbits the sun on its side. Its relative lack of bright storm features and its bizarre multi-decadal seasons provide insight into the relative effects of internal heat flow and time- varying solar insolation on atmospheric dynamics, while its narrow rings composed of dark, macroscopic particles encode the history of bombardment and satellite disruption within the system. Jupiter's moon Io hosts the most extreme volcanic activity anywhere in the solar system. Its tidally-powered geological activity provides a window into this satellite's interior, permitting rare and valuable investigations into the exchange of heat and materials between interiors and surfaces. In particular, Io provides a laboratory for studying the process of tidal heating, which shapes planets and satellites in our solar system and beyond. A comparison between Earth and Io contextualizes the volcanism at work on our home planet, revealing the effects of planetary size, atmospheric density, and plate tectonics on the style and mechanisms of geological activity. This dissertation investigates the processes at work on these solar

  19. Altered dynamics of broad-leaved tree species in a Chinese subtropical montane mixed forest: the role of an anomalous extreme 2008 ice storm episode.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Jielin; Xiong, Gaoming; Wang, Zhixian; Zhang, Mi; Zhao, Changming; Shen, Guozhen; Xu, Wenting; Xie, Zongqiang

    2015-04-01

    Extreme climatic events can trigger gradual or abrupt shifts in forest ecosystems via the reduction or elimination of foundation species. However, the impacts of these events on foundation species' demography and forest dynamics remain poorly understood. Here we quantified dynamics for both evergreen and deciduous broad-leaved species groups, utilizing a monitoring permanent plot in a subtropical montane mixed forest in central China from 2001 to 2010 with particular relevance to the anomalous 2008 ice storm episode. We found that both species groups showed limited floristic alterations over the study period. For each species group, size distribution of dead individuals approximated a roughly irregular and flat shape prior to the ice storm and resembled an inverse J-shaped distribution after the ice storm. Furthermore, patterns of mortality and recruitment displayed disequilibrium behaviors with mortality exceeding recruitment for both species groups following the ice storm. Deciduous broad-leaved species group accelerated overall diameter growth, but the ice storm reduced evergreen small-sized diameter growth. We concluded that evergreen broad-leaved species were more susceptible to ice storms than deciduous broad-leaved species, and ice storm events, which may become more frequent with climate change, might potentially threaten the perpetuity of evergreen-dominated broad-leaved forests in this subtropical region in the long term. These results underscore the importance of long-term monitoring that is indispensible to elucidate causal links between forest dynamics and climatic perturbations.

  20. Effect of geomagnetic storms on VHF scintillations observed at low latitude

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, S. B.; Patel, Kalpana; Singh, A. K.

    2018-06-01

    A geomagnetic storm affects the dynamics and composition of the ionosphere and also offers an excellent opportunity to study the plasma dynamics. In the present study, we have used the VHF scintillations data recorded at low latitude Indian station Varanasi (Geomag. latitude = 14^{°}55^' }N, long. = 154^{°}E) which is radiated at 250 MHz from geostationary satellite UFO-02 during the period 2011-2012 to investigate the effects of geomagnetic storms on VHF scintillation. Various geomagnetic and solar indices such as Dst index, Kp index, IMF Bz and solar wind velocity (Vx) are used to describe the geomagnetic field variation observed during geomagnetic storm periods. These indices are very helpful to find out the proper investigation and possible interrelation between geomagnetic storms and observed VHF scintillation. The pre-midnight scintillation is sometimes observed when the main phase of geomagnetic storm corresponds to the pre-midnight period. It is observed that for geomagnetic storms for which the recovery phase starts post-midnight, the probability of occurrence of irregularities is enhanced during this time and extends to early morning hours.

  1. AI techniques in geomagnetic storm forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundstedt, Henrik

    This review deals with how geomagnetic storms can be predicted with the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques. Today many different Al techniques have been developed, such as symbolic systems (expert and fuzzy systems) and connectionism systems (neural networks). Even integrations of AI techniques exist, so called Intelligent Hybrid Systems (IHS). These systems are capable of learning the mathematical functions underlying the operation of non-linear dynamic systems and also to explain the knowledge they have learned. Very few such powerful systems exist at present. Two such examples are the Magnetospheric Specification Forecast Model of Rice University and the Lund Space Weather Model of Lund University. Various attempts to predict geomagnetic storms on long to short-term are reviewed in this article. Predictions of a month to days ahead most often use solar data as input. The first SOHO data are now available. Due to the high temporal and spatial resolution new solar physics have been revealed. These SOHO data might lead to a breakthrough in these predictions. Predictions hours ahead and shorter rely on real-time solar wind data. WIND gives us real-time data for only part of the day. However, with the launch of the ACE spacecraft in 1997, real-time data during 24 hours will be available. That might lead to the second breakthrough for predictions of geomagnetic storms.

  2. Past and future changes in extreme sea levels and waves

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Lawe, J.A.; Woodworth, P.L.; Knutson, T.; McDonald, R.E.; Mclnnes, K.L.; Woth, K.; Von Storch, H.; Wolf, J.; Swail, V.; Bernier, N.B.; Gulev, S.; Horsburgh, K.J.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.; Hunter, J.R.; Weisse, R.

    of Extreme Sea Level 11.3.1 An Introduction to Storms Both mid-latitude and tropical storms are associated with extremes of sea level. Storm surges are generated by low atmospheric pressure and intense winds over the ocean. The latter also cause high wave... timescales, extremes and mean-sea-level change are both major factors in determining coastal evolution including the development of coastal ecosystems. It will be seen below that, although it is difficult to determine how mean sea level has changed...

  3. Geoelectric hazard maps for the Mid-Atlantic United States: 100 year extreme values and the 1989 magnetic storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, Jeffrey J.; Lucas, Greg M.; Kelbert, Anna; Bedrosian, Paul A.

    2018-01-01

    Maps of extreme value geoelectric field amplitude are constructed for the Mid‐Atlantic United States, a region with high population density and critically important power grid infrastructure. Geoelectric field time series for the years 1983–2014 are estimated by convolving Earth surface impedances obtained from 61 magnetotelluric survey sites across the Mid‐Atlantic with historical 1 min (2 min Nyquist) measurements of geomagnetic variation obtained from a nearby observatory. Statistical models are fitted to the maximum geoelectric amplitudes occurring during magnetic storms, and extrapolations made to estimate threshold amplitudes only exceeded, on average, once per century. For the Mid‐Atlantic region, 100 year geoelectric exceedance amplitudes have a range of almost 3 orders of magnitude (from 0.04 V/km at a site in southern Pennsylvania to 24.29 V/km at a site in central Virginia), and they have significant geographic granularity, all of which is due to site‐to‐site differences in magnetotelluric impedance. Maps of these 100 year exceedance amplitudes resemble those of the estimated geoelectric amplitudes attained during the March 1989 magnetic storm, and, in that sense, the March 1989 storm resembles what might be loosely called a “100 year” event. The geoelectric hazard maps reported here stand in stark contrast with the 100 year geoelectric benchmarks developed for the North American Electric Reliability Corporation.

  4. Geoelectric Hazard Maps for the Mid-Atlantic United States: 100 Year Extreme Values and the 1989 Magnetic Storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, Jeffrey J.; Lucas, Greg M.; Kelbert, Anna; Bedrosian, Paul A.

    2018-01-01

    Maps of extreme value geoelectric field amplitude are constructed for the Mid-Atlantic United States, a region with high population density and critically important power grid infrastructure. Geoelectric field time series for the years 1983-2014 are estimated by convolving Earth surface impedances obtained from 61 magnetotelluric survey sites across the Mid-Atlantic with historical 1 min (2 min Nyquist) measurements of geomagnetic variation obtained from a nearby observatory. Statistical models are fitted to the maximum geoelectric amplitudes occurring during magnetic storms, and extrapolations made to estimate threshold amplitudes only exceeded, on average, once per century. For the Mid-Atlantic region, 100 year geoelectric exceedance amplitudes have a range of almost 3 orders of magnitude (from 0.04 V/km at a site in southern Pennsylvania to 24.29 V/km at a site in central Virginia), and they have significant geographic granularity, all of which is due to site-to-site differences in magnetotelluric impedance. Maps of these 100 year exceedance amplitudes resemble those of the estimated geoelectric amplitudes attained during the March 1989 magnetic storm, and, in that sense, the March 1989 storm resembles what might be loosely called a "100 year" event. The geoelectric hazard maps reported here stand in stark contrast with the 100 year geoelectric benchmarks developed for the North American Electric Reliability Corporation.

  5. Solar PV power forecasting using extreme machine learning and experts advice fusion

    OpenAIRE

    Le Cadre, Hélène; Aravena Solís, Ignacio Andrés; Papavasiliou, Anthony; European Symposium on Artificial Neural Networks, Computational Intelligence and Machine Learning

    2015-01-01

    We provide a learning algorithm combining distributed Extreme Learning Machine and an information fusion rule based on the aggregation of experts advice, to build day ahead probabilistic solar PV power production forecasts. These forecasts use, apart from the current day solar PV power production, local meteorological inputs, the most valuable of which is shown to be precipitation. Experiments are then run in one French region, Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur, to evaluate the algorithm performance...

  6. High-Latitude Topside Ionospheric Vertical Electron-Density-Profile Changes in Response to Large Magnetic Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benson, Robert F.; Fainberg, Joseph; Osherovich, Vladimir A.; Truhlik, Vladimir; Wang, Yongli; Bilitza, Dieter; Fung, Shing F.

    2015-01-01

    Large magnetic-storm induced changes have been detected in high-latitude topside vertical electron-density profiles Ne(h). The investigation was based on the large database of topside Ne(h) profiles and digital topside ionograms from the International Satellites for Ionospheric Studies (ISIS) program available from the NASA Space Physics Data Facility (SPDF) at http://spdf.gsfc.nasa.gov/isis/isis-status.html. This large database enabled Ne(h) profiles to be obtained when an ISIS satellite passed through nearly the same region of space before, during, and after a major magnetic storm. A major goal was to relate the magnetic-storm induced high-latitude Ne(h) profile changes to solar-wind parameters. Thus an additional data constraint was to consider only storms where solar-wind data were available from the NASA/SPDF OMNIWeb database. Ten large magnetic storms (with Dst less than -100 nT) were identified that satisfied both the Ne(h) profile and the solar-wind data constraints. During five of these storms topside ionospheric Ne(h) profiles were available in the high-latitude northern hemisphere and during the other five storms similar ionospheric data were available in the southern hemisphere. Large Ne(h) changes were observed during each one of these storms. Our concentration in this paper is on the northern hemisphere. The data coverage was best for the northern-hemisphere winter. Here Ne(h) profile enhancements were always observed when the magnetic local time (MLT) was between 00 and 03 and Ne(h) profile depletions were always observed between 08 and 10 MLT. The observed Ne(h) deviations were compared with solar-wind parameters, with appropriate time shifts, for four storms.

  7. Large-scale coastal impact induced by a catastrophic storm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fruergaard, Mikkel; Andersen, Thorbjørn Joest; Johannessen, Peter N

    breaching. Our results demonstrate that violent, millennial-scale storms can trigger significant large-scale and long-term changes on barrier coasts, and that coastal changes assumed to take place over centuries or even millennia may occur in association with a single extreme storm event....

  8. Magnetic storm generation by large-scale complex structure Sheath/ICME

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grigorenko, E. E.; Yermolaev, Y. I.; Lodkina, I. G.; Yermolaev, M. Y.; Riazantseva, M.; Borodkova, N. L.

    2017-12-01

    We study temporal profiles of interplanetary plasma and magnetic field parameters as well as magnetospheric indices. We use our catalog of large-scale solar wind phenomena for 1976-2000 interval (see the catalog for 1976-2016 in web-side ftp://ftp.iki.rssi.ru/pub/omni/ prepared on basis of OMNI database (Yermolaev et al., 2009)) and the double superposed epoch analysis method (Yermolaev et al., 2010). Our analysis showed (Yermolaev et al., 2015) that average profiles of Dst and Dst* indices decrease in Sheath interval (magnetic storm activity increases) and increase in ICME interval. This profile coincides with inverted distribution of storm numbers in both intervals (Yermolaev et al., 2017). This behavior is explained by following reasons. (1) IMF magnitude in Sheath is higher than in Ejecta and closed to value in MC. (2) Sheath has 1.5 higher efficiency of storm generation than ICME (Nikolaeva et al., 2015). The most part of so-called CME-induced storms are really Sheath-induced storms and this fact should be taken into account during Space Weather prediction. The work was in part supported by the Russian Science Foundation, grant 16-12-10062. References. 1. Nikolaeva N.S., Y. I. Yermolaev and I. G. Lodkina (2015), Modeling of the corrected Dst* index temporal profile on the main phase of the magnetic storms generated by different types of solar wind, Cosmic Res., 53(2), 119-127 2. Yermolaev Yu. I., N. S. Nikolaeva, I. G. Lodkina and M. Yu. Yermolaev (2009), Catalog of Large-Scale Solar Wind Phenomena during 1976-2000, Cosmic Res., , 47(2), 81-94 3. Yermolaev, Y. I., N. S. Nikolaeva, I. G. Lodkina, and M. Y. Yermolaev (2010), Specific interplanetary conditions for CIR-induced, Sheath-induced, and ICME-induced geomagnetic storms obtained by double superposed epoch analysis, Ann. Geophys., 28, 2177-2186 4. Yermolaev Yu. I., I. G. Lodkina, N. S. Nikolaeva and M. Yu. Yermolaev (2015), Dynamics of large-scale solar wind streams obtained by the double superposed epoch

  9. Local time and cutoff rigidity dependences of storm time increase associated with geomagnetic storms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kudo, S.; Wada, M.; Tanskanen, P.; Kodama, M.

    1987-01-01

    The cosmic ray increases due to considerable depressions of cosmic ray cutoff rigidity during large geomagnetic storms are investigated. Data from a worldwide network of cosmic ray neutron monitors are analyzed for 17 geomagnetic storms which occurred in the quiet phase of the solar activity cycle during 1966-1978. As expected from the longitudinal asymmetry of the low-altitude geomagnetic field during large geomagnetic storms, a significant local time dependence of the increment in the cosmic ray during large geomagnetic storms, a significant local time dependence of the increment in the cosmic ray intensity is obtained. It is shown that the maximum phases of the local time dependence occur at around 1800 LT and that the amplitudes of the local time dependence are consistent with presently available theoretical estimates. The dependence of the increment on the cutoff rigidity is obtained for both the local time dependent part and the local time independent part of the storm time increase. The local time independent part, excluding the randomizing local time dependent part, shows a clear-cut dependence on cutoff rigidity which is consistent with theoretical estimates

  10. Solar radio continuum storms and a breathing magnetic field model. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1975-01-01

    Radio noise continuum emissions observed in metric and decametric wave frequencies are, in general, associated with actively varying sunspot groups accompanied by the S-component of microwave radio emissions. These continuum emission sources, often called type I storm sources, are often associated with type III burst storm activity from metric to hectometric wave frequencies. This storm activity is, therefore, closely connected with the development of these continuum emission sources. It is shown that the S-component emission in microwave frequencies generally precedes, by several days, the emission of these noise continuum storms of lower frequencies. In order for these storms to develop, the growth of sunspot groups into complex types is very important in addition to the increase of the average magnetic field intensity and area of these groups. After giving a review on the theory of these noise continuum storm emissions, a model is briefly considered to explain the relation of the emissions to the storms

  11. Energetic electron precipitation in weak to moderate corotating interaction region-driven storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ødegaard, Linn-Kristine Glesnes; Tyssøy, Hilde Nesse; Søraas, Finn; Stadsnes, Johan; Sandanger, Marit Irene

    2017-03-01

    High-energy electron precipitation from the radiation belts can penetrate deep into the mesosphere and increase the production rate of NOx and HOx, which in turn will reduce ozone in catalytic processes. The mechanisms for acceleration and loss of electrons in the radiation belts are not fully understood, and most of the measurements of the precipitating flux into the atmosphere have been insufficient for estimating the loss cone flux. In the present study the electron flux measured by the NOAA POES Medium Energy Proton and Electron Detectors 0° and 90° detectors is combined together with theory of pitch angle diffusion by wave-particle interaction to quantify the electron flux lost below 120 km altitude. Using this method, 41 weak and moderate geomagnetic storms caused by corotating interaction regions during 2006-2010 are studied. The dependence of the energetic electron precipitation fluxes upon solar wind parameters and geomagnetic indices is investigated. Nine storms give increased precipitation of >˜750 keV electrons. Nineteen storms increase the precipitation of >˜300 keV electrons, but not the >˜750 keV population. Thirteen storms either do not change or deplete the fluxes at those energies. Storms that have an increase in the flux of electrons with energy >˜300 keV are characterized by an elevated solar wind velocity for a longer period compared to the storms that do not. Storms with increased precipitation of >˜750 keV flux are distinguished by higher-energy input from the solar wind quantified by the ɛ parameter and corresponding higher geomagnetic activity.

  12. Importance of post-shock streams and sheath region as drivers of intense magnetospheric storms and high-latitude activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. E. J. Huttunen

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available Magnetic disturbances in the Earth's magnetosphere can be very different depending on the type of solar wind driver. We have determined the solar wind causes for intense magnetic storms (DstDst index was more difficult to model for a sheath region or a post-shock stream driven storm than for a storm caused by a magnetic cloud.

  13. Hydrogen escape from Mars enhanced by deep convection in dust storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heavens, Nicholas G.; Kleinböhl, Armin; Chaffin, Michael S.; Halekas, Jasper S.; Kass, David M.; Hayne, Paul O.; McCleese, Daniel J.; Piqueux, Sylvain; Shirley, James H.; Schofield, John T.

    2018-02-01

    Present-day water loss from Mars provides insight into Mars's past habitability1-3. Its main mechanism is thought to be Jeans escape of a steady hydrogen reservoir sourced from odd-oxygen reactions with near-surface water vapour2, 4,5. The observed escape rate, however, is strongly variable and correlates poorly with solar extreme-ultraviolet radiation flux6-8, which was predicted to modulate escape9. This variability has recently been attributed to hydrogen sourced from photolysed middle atmospheric water vapour10, whose vertical and seasonal distribution is only partly characterized and understood11-13. Here, we report multi-annual observational estimates of water content and dust and water transport to the middle atmosphere from Mars Climate Sounder data. We provide strong evidence that the transport of water vapour and ice to the middle atmosphere by deep convection in Martian dust storms can enhance hydrogen escape. Planet-encircling dust storms can raise the effective hygropause (where water content rapidly decreases to effectively zero) from 50 to 80 km above the areoid (the reference equipotential surface). Smaller dust storms contribute to an annual mode in water content at 40-50 km that may explain seasonal variability in escape. Our results imply that Martian atmospheric chemistry and evolution can be strongly affected by the meteorology of the lower and middle atmosphere of Mars.

  14. The Role of Ionospheric Outflow Preconditioning in Determining Storm Geoeffectiveness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welling, D. T.; Liemohn, M. W.; Ridley, A. J.

    2012-12-01

    It is now well accepted that ionospheric outflow plays an important role in the development of the plasma sheet and ring current during geomagnetic storms. Furthermore, even during quiet times, ionospheric plasma populates the magnetospheric lobes, producing a reservoir of hydrogen and oxygen ions. When the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) turns southward, this reservoir is connected to the plasma sheet and ring current through magnetospheric convection. Hence, the conditions of the ionosphere and magnetospheric lobes leading up to magnetospheric storm onset have important implications for storm development. Despite this, there has been little research on this preconditioning; most global simulations begin just before storm onset, neglecting preconditioning altogether. This work explores the role of preconditioning in determining the geoeffectiveness of storms using a coupled global model system. A model of ionospheric outflow (the Polar Wind Outflow Model, PWOM) is two-way coupled to a global magnetohydrodynamic model (the Block-Adaptive Tree Solar wind Roe-type Upwind Scheme, BATS-R-US), which in turn drives a ring current model (the Ring current Atmosphere interactions Model, RAM). This unique setup is used to simulate an idealized storm. The model is started at many different times, from 1 hour before storm onset to 12 hours before. The effects of storm preconditioning are examined by investigating the total ionospheric plasma content in the lobes just before onset, the total ionospheric contribution in the ring current just after onset, and the effects on Dst, magnetic elevation angle at geosynchronous, and total ring current energy density. This experiment is repeated for different solar activity levels as set by F10.7 flux. Finally, a synthetic double-dip storm is constructed to see how two closely spaced storms affect each other by changing the preconditioning environment. It is found that preconditioning of the magnetospheric lobes via ionospheric

  15. Avian responses to an extreme ice storm are determined by a combination of functional traits, behavioural adaptations and habitat modifications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qiang; Hong, Yongmi; Zou, Fasheng; Zhang, Min; Lee, Tien Ming; Song, Xiangjin; Rao, Jiteng

    2016-03-01

    The extent to which species' traits, behavior and habitat synergistically determine their response to extreme weather events (EWE) remains poorly understood. By quantifying bird and vegetation assemblages before and after the 2008 ice storm in China, combined with interspecific interactions and foraging behaviours, we disentangled whether storm influences avian reassembly directly via functional traits (i.e. behavioral adaptations), or indirectly via habitat variations. We found that overall species richness decreased, with 20 species detected exclusively before the storm, and eight species detected exclusively after. These shifts in bird relative abundance were linked to habitat preferences, dietary guild and flocking behaviours. For instance, forest specialists at higher trophic levels (e.g. understory-insectivores, woodpeckers and kingfishers) were especially vulnerable, whereas open-habitat generalists (e.g. bulbuls) were set to benefit from potential habitat homogenization. Alongside population fluctuations, we found that community reassembly can be rapidly adjusted via foraging plasticity (i.e. increased flocking propensity and reduced perching height). And changes in preferred habitat corresponded to a variation in bird assemblages and traits, as represented by intact canopy cover and high density of large trees. Accurate predictions of community responses to EWE are crucial to understanding ecosystem disturbances, thus linking species-oriented traits to a coherent analytical framework.

  16. NOAA Satellites Provide a Keen View of the Martin Luther King Solar Storm of January 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkinson, D. C.; Allen, J. H.

    2005-05-01

    Solar active region 0720 rotated onto the east limb on January 10th and put on a pyrotechnic display uncharacteristic for this phase of the solar cycle before disappearing beyond the west limb on January 23rd. On January 15th this region released the first of five X-class solar flares. The last of those flares, January 20th, was associated with an extraordinary ion storm whose effect reached Earth's surface. This paper highlights the record of this event made by NOAA's GOES satellites via their Space Environment Monitor (SEM) subsystems that measures X-ray, energetic particles, and the magnetic field vector at the satellite. Displays of those data are supplemented by neutron monitor data to illustrate their relationship to the January 20th Ground Level Event. GOES-12 is also equipped with the Solar X-ray Imager (SXI) that produces an image of the Sun in X-ray wavelengths once per minute. Movies created from those data perfectly illustrate the cause-and-effect relationship between intense solar activity and satellite disruptions. The flares on January 17th and 20th are closely followed by noise in the SXI telescope resulting from energetic ions penetrating SXI. Ions with sufficient velocity and atomic number can penetrate satellite components and deposit charge along their path. Sufficient charge deposition can introduce erroneous information into solid-state devices. A survey of satellites that experienced problems of this type during this event will also be presented.

  17. Thyroid storm precipitated by acute biliary pancreatitis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehrdad Karimi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Thyroid storm is an acute, life-threatening exacerbation and sudden releasing large amounts of thyroid hormone in a short period of time. Nevertheless, critical aggravation of hyperthyroidism typically resulted from concurrent disorder. Synchronous management of thyroid storm along with its precipitant, such as infection is recommended. We described the case of an acute biliary pancreatitis complicated with a thyroid storm. The patient was successfully managed with a quick surgical intervention and further critical care for thyroid storm. Although it is widely believed that pancreatitis is seldom concurrent with thyrotoxicosis, thyroid storm can be precipitated by a variety of factors, including intra-abdominal infections such as acute pancreatitis or perforated peptic ulcer. In conclusion, acute pancreatitis in patients with thyrotoxicosis seems to be extremely rare, but such patients should be managed intensively against underlying thyroid disorders as well as pancreatitis.

  18. Examples of storm impacts on barrier islands: Chapter 4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plant, Nathaniel G.; Doran, Kara; Stockdon, Hilary F.

    2017-01-01

    This chapter focuses on the morphologic variability of barrier islands and on the differences in storm response. It describes different types of barrier island response to individual storms, as well as the integrated response of barrier islands to many storms. The chapter considers case study on the Chandeleur Island chain, where a decadal time series of island elevation measurements have documented a wide range of barrier island responses to storms and long-term processes that are representative of barrier island behaviour at many other locations. These islands are low elevation, extremely vulnerable to storms and exhibit a diversity of storm responses. Additionally, this location experiences a moderately high rate of relative sea-level rise, increasing its vulnerability to the combined impacts of storms and long-term erosional processes. Understanding how natural processes, including storm impacts and intervening recovery periods interact with man-made restoration processes is also broadly relevant to understand the natural and human response to future storms.

  19. Data-based Modeling of the Dynamical Inner Magnetosphere During Strong Geomagnetic Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsyganenko, N.; Sitnov, M.

    2004-12-01

    This work builds on and extends our previous effort [Tsyganenko et al., 2003] to develop a dynamical model of the storm-time geomagnetic field in the inner magnetosphere, using space magnetometer data taken during 37 major events in 1996--2000 and concurrent observations of the solar wind and IMF. The essence of the approach is to derive from the data the temporal variation of all major current systems contributing to the geomagnetic field during the entire storm cycle, using a simple model of their growth and decay. Each principal source of the external magnetic field (magnetopause, cross-tail current sheet, axisymmetric and partial ring currents, Birkeland currents) is controlled by a separate driving variable that includes a combination of geoeffective parameters in the form Nλ Vβ Bsγ , where N, V, and Bs are the solar wind density, speed, and the magnitude of the southward component of the IMF, respectively. Each source was also assumed to have an individual relaxation timescale and residual quiet-time strength, so that its partial contribution to the total field was calculated for any moment as a time integral, taking into account the entire history of the external driving of the magnetosphere during each storm. In addition, the magnitudes of the principal field sources were assumed to saturate during extremely large storms with abnormally strong external driving. All the parameters of the model field sources, including their magnitudes, geometrical characteristics, solar wind/IMF driving functions, decay timescales, and saturation thresholds were treated as free variables, to be derived from the data by the least squares. The relaxation timescales of the individual magnetospheric field sources were found to largely differ between each other, from as large as ˜30 hours for the symmetrical ring current to only ˜50 min for the region~1 Birkeland current. The total magnitudes of the currents were also found to dramatically vary in the course of major storms

  20. Response of wave-dominated and mixed-energy barriers to storms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Masselink, G.; Heteren, S. van

    2014-01-01

    Wave-dominated and mixed-energy barriers are extremely dynamic landforms, responding to processes operating over a spectrum of time scales, ranging from daily-to-monthly fluctuations related to storm and post-storm conditions, to century-to-millennium-scale evolution driven by relative sea-level

  1. Extremely Black Vertically Aligned Carbon Nanotube Arrays for Solar Steam Generation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Zhe; Wang, Huimin; Jian, Muqiang; Li, Yanshen; Xia, Kailun; Zhang, Mingchao; Wang, Chunya; Wang, Qi; Ma, Ming; Zheng, Quan-Shui; Zhang, Yingying

    2017-08-30

    The unique structure of a vertically aligned carbon nanotube (VACNT) array makes it behave most similarly to a blackbody. It is reported that the optical absorptivity of an extremely black VACNT array is about 0.98-0.99 over a large spectral range of 200 nm-200 μm, inspiring us to explore the performance of VACNT arrays in solar energy harvesting. In this work, we report the highly efficient steam generation simply by laminating a layer of VACNT array on the surface of water to harvest solar energy. It is found that under solar illumination the temperature of upper water can significantly increase with obvious water steam generated, indicating the efficient solar energy harvesting and local temperature rise by the thin layer of VACNTs. We found that the evaporation rate of water assisted by VACNT arrays is 10 times that of bare water, which is the highest ratio for solar-thermal-steam generation ever reported. Remarkably, the solar thermal conversion efficiency reached 90%. The excellent performance could be ascribed to the strong optical absorption and local temperature rise induced by the VACNT layer, as well as the ultrafast water transport through the VACNT layer due to the frictionless wall of CNTs. Based on the above, we further demonstrated the application of VACNT arrays in solar-driven desalination.

  2. Possible mechanism of solar noise storm generation in meter wavelength

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Genkin, L.G.; Erukhimov, L.M.; Levin, B.N.

    1989-01-01

    Fluctuation plasma mechanism of noise storm generation is proposed. The sporadic formation of density irregularities in plasma (Langmuir) turbulence region is shown to be the result of thermal stratification of plasma. The noise storm type 1 bursts in their typical parameters are like radio emission due to plasma turbulence conversion on this structures

  3. Acceleration and loss of relativistic electrons during small geomagnetic storms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, B R; Millan, R M; Reeves, G D; Friedel, R H W

    2015-12-16

    Past studies of radiation belt relativistic electrons have favored active storm time periods, while the effects of small geomagnetic storms ( D s t  > -50 nT) have not been statistically characterized. In this timely study, given the current weak solar cycle, we identify 342 small storms from 1989 through 2000 and quantify the corresponding change in relativistic electron flux at geosynchronous orbit. Surprisingly, small storms can be equally as effective as large storms at enhancing and depleting fluxes. Slight differences exist, as small storms are 10% less likely to result in flux enhancement and 10% more likely to result in flux depletion than large storms. Nevertheless, it is clear that neither acceleration nor loss mechanisms scale with storm drivers as would be expected. Small geomagnetic storms play a significant role in radiation belt relativistic electron dynamics and provide opportunities to gain new insights into the complex balance of acceleration and loss processes.

  4. Transient phenomena in cosmic ray intensity during extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agarwal, Rekha; Mishra, Rajesh K.

    2008-04-01

    In the present work an analysis has been made of the extreme events occurring during July 2005. Specifically, a rather intense Forbush decrease was observed at different neutron monitors all over the world during 16 July 2005. An effort has been made to study the effect of this unusual event on cosmic ray intensity as well as various solar and interplanetary plasma parameters. It is noteworthy that during 11 to 18 July 2005 the solar activity ranged from low to very active. Especially low levels occurred on 11, 15, and 17 July whereas high levels took place on 14 and 16 July 2005. The Sun is observed to be active during 11 to 18 July 2005, the interplanetary magnetic field intensity lies within 15 nT, and solar wind velocity was limited to ˜500 kms-1. The geomagnetic activity during this period remains very quiet, the Kp index did not exceed 5, the disturbance storm time Dst index remains ˜-70 nT and no sudden storm commencement has been detected during this period. It is noted that for the majority of the hours, the north/south component of the interplanetary magnetic field, Bz, remains negative, and the cosmic ray intensity increases and shows good/high correlation with Bz, as the polarity of Bz tends to shift from negative to positive values, the intensity decreases and shows good/high anti-correlation with Bz. The cosmic ray intensity tends to decrease with increase of interplanetary magnetic field strength (B) and shows anti-correlation for the majority of the days.

  5. Toward an integrated storm surge application: ESA Storm Surge project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Boram; Donlon, Craig; Arino, Olivier

    2010-05-01

    Storm surges and their associated coastal inundation are major coastal marine hazards, both in tropical and extra-tropical areas. As sea level rises due to climate change, the impact of storm surges and associated extreme flooding may increase in low-lying countries and harbour cities. Of the 33 world cities predicted to have at least 8 million people by 2015, at least 21 of them are coastal including 8 of the 10 largest. They are highly vulnerable to coastal hazards including storm surges. Coastal inundation forecasting and warning systems depend on the crosscutting cooperation of different scientific disciplines and user communities. An integrated approach to storm surge, wave, sea-level and flood forecasting offers an optimal strategy for building improved operational forecasts and warnings capability for coastal inundation. The Earth Observation (EO) information from satellites has demonstrated high potential to enhanced coastal hazard monitoring, analysis, and forecasting; the GOCE geoid data can help calculating accurate positions of tide gauge stations within the GLOSS network. ASAR images has demonstrated usefulness in analysing hydrological situation in coastal zones with timely manner, when hazardous events occur. Wind speed and direction, which is the key parameters for storm surge forecasting and hindcasting, can be derived by using scatterometer data. The current issue is, although great deal of useful EO information and application tools exist, that sufficient user information on EO data availability is missing and that easy access supported by user applications and documentation is highly required. Clear documentation on the user requirements in support of improved storm surge forecasting and risk assessment is also needed at the present. The paper primarily addresses the requirements for data, models/technologies, and operational skills, based on the results from the recent Scientific and Technical Symposium on Storm Surges (www

  6. A Topside Equatorial Ionospheric Density and Composition Climatology During and After Extreme Solar Minimum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klenzing, J. H.; Simoes, F.; Ivanov, S.; Heelis, R. A.; Bilitza, D.; Pfaff, R. F.; Rowland, D. E.

    2011-01-01

    During the recent solar minimum, solar activity reached the lowest levels observed during the space age. This extremely low solar activity has accompanied a number of unexpected observations in the Earth's ionosphere and thermosphere when compared to previous solar minima. Among these are the fact that the ionosphere is significantly contracted beyond expectations based on empirical models. Climatological altitude profiles of ion density and composition measurements near the magnetic dip equator are constructed from the C/NOFS satellite to characterize the shape of the top side ionosphere during the recent solar minimum and into the new solar cycle. The variation of the profiles with respect to local time, season, and solar activity are compared to the IRI-2007 model. Building on initial results reported by Heelis et al. [2009], here we describe the extent of the contracted ionosphere, which is found to persist throughout 2009. The shape of the ionosphere during 2010 is found to be consistent with observations from previous solar minima.

  7. A Carrington-like geomagnetic storm observed in the 21st century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cid Consuelo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In September 1859 the Colaba observatory measured the most extreme geomagnetic disturbance ever recorded at low latitudes related to solar activity: the Carrington storm. This paper describes a geomagnetic disturbance case with a profile extraordinarily similar to the disturbance of the Carrington event at Colaba: the event on 29 October 2003 at Tihany magnetic observatory in Hungary. The analysis of the H-field at different locations during the “Carrington-like” event leads to a re-interpretation of the 1859 event. The major conclusions of the paper are the following: (a the global Dst or SYM-H, as indices based on averaging, missed the largest geomagnetic disturbance in the 29 October 2003 event and might have missed the 1859 disturbance, since the large spike in the horizontal component (H of terrestrial magnetic field depends strongly on magnetic local time (MLT; (b the main cause of the large drop in H recorded at Colaba during the Carrington storm was not the ring current but field-aligned currents (FACs; and (c the very local signatures of the H-spike imply that a Carrington-like event can occur more often than expected.

  8. Effect of hurricanes and violent storms on salt marsh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonardi, N.; Ganju, N. K.; Fagherazzi, S.

    2016-12-01

    Salt marsh losses have been documented worldwide because of land use change, wave erosion, and sea-level rise. It is still unclear how resistant salt marshes are to extreme storms and whether they can survive multiple events without collapsing. Based on a large dataset of salt marsh lateral erosion rates collected around the world, here, we determine the general response of salt marsh boundaries to wave action under normal and extreme weather conditions. As wave energy increases, salt marsh response to wind waves remains linear, and there is not a critical threshold in wave energy above which salt marsh erosion drastically accelerates. We apply our general formulation for salt marsh erosion to historical wave climates at eight salt marsh locations affected by hurricanes in the United States. Based on the analysis of two decades of data, we find that violent storms and hurricanes contribute less than 1% to long-term salt marsh erosion rates. In contrast, moderate storms with a return period of 2.5 mo are those causing the most salt marsh deterioration. Therefore, salt marshes seem more susceptible to variations in mean wave energy rather than changes in the extremes. The intrinsic resistance of salt marshes to violent storms and their predictable erosion rates during moderate events should be taken into account by coastal managers in restoration projects and risk management plans.

  9. OBSERVATIONS OF FIVE-MINUTE SOLAR OSCILLATIONS IN THE CORONA USING THE EXTREME ULTRAVIOLET SPECTROPHOTOMETER (ESP) ON BOARD THE SOLAR DYNAMICS OBSERVATORY EXTREME ULTRAVIOLET VARIABILITY EXPERIMENT (SDO/EVE)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Didkovsky, L.; Judge, D.; Wieman, S.; Kosovichev, A. G.; Woods, T.

    2011-01-01

    We report on the detection of oscillations in the corona in the frequency range corresponding to five-minute acoustic modes of the Sun. The oscillations have been observed using soft X-ray measurements from the Extreme Ultraviolet Spectrophotometer (ESP) of the Extreme Ultraviolet Variability Experiment on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory. The ESP zeroth-order channel observes the Sun as a star without spatial resolution in the wavelength range of 0.1-7.0 nm (the energy range is 0.18-12.4 keV). The amplitude spectrum of the oscillations calculated from six-day time series shows a significant increase in the frequency range of 2-4 mHz. We interpret this increase as a response of the corona to solar acoustic (p) modes and attempt to identify p-mode frequencies among the strongest peaks. Due to strong variability of the amplitudes and frequencies of the five-minute oscillations in the corona, we study how the spectrum from two adjacent six-day time series combined together affects the number of peaks associated with the p-mode frequencies and their amplitudes. This study shows that five-minute oscillations of the Sun can be observed in the corona in variations of the soft X-ray emission. Further investigations of these oscillations may improve our understanding of the interaction of the oscillation modes with the solar atmosphere, and the interior-corona coupling, in general.

  10. Modeling extreme "Carrington-type" space weather events using three-dimensional global MHD simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngwira, Chigomezyo M.; Pulkkinen, Antti; Kuznetsova, Maria M.; Glocer, Alex

    2014-06-01

    There is a growing concern over possible severe societal consequences related to adverse space weather impacts on man-made technological infrastructure. In the last two decades, significant progress has been made toward the first-principles modeling of space weather events, and three-dimensional (3-D) global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) models have been at the forefront of this transition, thereby playing a critical role in advancing our understanding of space weather. However, the modeling of extreme space weather events is still a major challenge even for the modern global MHD models. In this study, we introduce a specially adapted University of Michigan 3-D global MHD model for simulating extreme space weather events with a Dst footprint comparable to the Carrington superstorm of September 1859 based on the estimate by Tsurutani et. al. (2003). Results are presented for a simulation run with "very extreme" constructed/idealized solar wind boundary conditions driving the magnetosphere. In particular, we describe the reaction of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system and the associated induced geoelectric field on the ground to such extreme driving conditions. The model setup is further tested using input data for an observed space weather event of Halloween storm October 2003 to verify the MHD model consistence and to draw additional guidance for future work. This extreme space weather MHD model setup is designed specifically for practical application to the modeling of extreme geomagnetically induced electric fields, which can drive large currents in ground-based conductor systems such as power transmission grids. Therefore, our ultimate goal is to explore the level of geoelectric fields that can be induced from an assumed storm of the reported magnitude, i.e., Dst˜=-1600 nT.

  11. Statistical Downscaling of Gusts During Extreme European Winter Storms Using Radial-Basis-Function Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voigt, M.; Lorenz, P.; Kruschke, T.; Osinski, R.; Ulbrich, U.; Leckebusch, G. C.

    2012-04-01

    Winterstorms and related gusts can cause extensive socio-economic damages. Knowledge about the occurrence and the small scale structure of such events may help to make regional estimations of storm losses. For a high spatial and temporal representation, the use of dynamical downscaling methods (RCM) is a cost-intensive and time-consuming option and therefore only applicable for a limited number of events. The current study explores a methodology to provide a statistical downscaling, which offers small scale structured gust fields from an extended large scale structured eventset. Radial-basis-function (RBF) networks in combination with bidirectional Kohonen (BDK) maps are used to generate the gustfields on a spatial resolution of 7 km from the 6-hourly mean sea level pressure field from ECMWF reanalysis data. BDK maps are a kind of neural network which handles supervised classification problems. In this study they are used to provide prototypes for the RBF network and give a first order approximation for the output data. A further interpolation is done by the RBF network. For the training process the 50 most extreme storm events over the North Atlantic area from 1957 to 2011 are used, which have been selected from ECMWF reanalysis datasets ERA40 and ERA-Interim by an objective wind based tracking algorithm. These events were downscaled dynamically by application of the DWD model chain GME → COSMO-EU. Different model parameters and their influence on the quality of the generated high-resolution gustfields are studied. It is shown that the statistical RBF network approach delivers reasonable results in modeling the regional gust fields for untrained events.

  12. Dynamics of long-period irregular pulsations in high latitudes during strong magnetic storms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kurazhkovskaya, N.A.; Klajn, B.I.

    1995-01-01

    Effects of strong magnetic storms within np type high-latitudinal long-period irregular pulsations at Mirny studied using data obtained at observatory of the magnetosphere south hemisphere. Variation of long-period irregular pulsation amplitude is shown to depend essentially on duration of storm initial phase and on the nature of solar wind heterogeneity enabling growth of strong storm. 14 refs

  13. Wonders of the solar system

    CERN Document Server

    Cox, Brian

    2011-01-01

    The Sunday Times Bestseller In Wonders of the Solar System - the book of the acclaimed BBC TV series - Professor Brian Cox will take us on a journey of discovery where alien worlds from your imagination become places we can see, feel and visit. The Wonders of the Solar System - from the giant ice fountains of Enceladus to the liquid methane seas of Titan and from storms twice the size of the Earth to the tortured moon of Io with its giant super-volcanoes - is the Solar System as you have never seen it before. In this series, Professor Brian Cox will introduce us to the planets and moons beyond our world, finding the biggest, most bizarre, most powerful natural phenomena. Using the latest scientific imagery along with cutting edge CGI and some of the most spectacular and extreme locations on Earth, Brian will show us Wonders never thought possible. Employing his trademark clear, authoritative, yet down-to-earth approach, Brian will explore how these previously unseen phenomena have dramatically expanded our ho...

  14. Field-aligned currents observed by CHAMP during the intense 2003 geomagnetic storm events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Wang

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available This study concentrates on the characteristics of field-aligned currents (FACs in both hemispheres during the extreme storms in October and November 2003. High-resolution CHAMP magnetic data reflect the dynamics of FACs during these geomagnetic storms, which are different from normal periods. The peak intensity and most equatorward location of FACs in response to the storm phases are examined separately for both hemispheres, as well as for the dayside and nightside. The corresponding large-scale FAC peak densities are, on average, enhanced by about a factor of 5 compared to the quiet-time FACs' strengths. And the FAC densities on the dayside are, on average, 2.5 times larger in the Southern (summer than in the Northern (winter Hemisphere, while the observed intensities on the nightside are comparable between the two hemispheres. Solar wind dynamic pressure is correlated with the FACs strength on the dayside. However, the latitudinal variations of the FACs are compared with the variations in Dst and the interplanetary magnetic field component Bz, in order to determine how these parameters control the large-scale FACs' configuration in the polar region. We have determined that (1 the equatorward shift of FACs on the dayside is directly controlled by the southward IMF Bz and there is a saturation of the latitudinal displacement for large value of negative Bz. In the winter hemisphere this saturation occurs at higher latitudes than in the summer hemisphere. (2 The equatorward expansion of the nightside FACs is delayed with respect to the solar wind input. The poleward recovery of FACs on the nightside is slower than on the dayside. The latitudinal variations on the nightside are better described by the variations of the Dst index. (3 The latitudinal width of the FAC region on the nightside spreads over a wide range of about 25° in latitude.

  15. OCCURRENCE OF EXTREME SOLAR PARTICLE EVENTS: ASSESSMENT FROM HISTORICAL PROXY DATA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Usoskin, Ilya G.; Kovaltsov, Gennady A.

    2012-01-01

    The probability of occurrence of extreme solar particle events (SPEs) with proton fluence (>30 MeV) F 30 ≥ 10 10 cm –2 is evaluated based on data on the cosmogenic isotopes 14 C and 10 Be in terrestrial archives covering centennial-millennial timescales. Four potential candidates with F 30 = (1-1.5) × 10 10 cm –2 and no events with F 30 > 2 × 10 10 cm –2 are identified since 1400 AD in the annually resolved 10 Be data. A strong SPE related to the Carrington flare of 1859 AD is not supported by the data. For the last 11,400 years, 19 SPE candidates with F 30 = (1-3) × 10 10 cm –2 are found and clearly no event with F 30 > 5 × 10 10 cm –2 (50 times the SPE of 1956 February 23) has occurred. These values serve as observational upper limits on the strength of SPEs on the timescale of tens of millennia. Two events, ca. 780 and 1460 AD, appear in different data series making them strong candidates for extreme SPEs. We build a distribution of the occurrence probability of extreme SPEs, providing a new strict observational constraint. Practical limits can be set as F 30 ≈ 1, 2-3, and 5×10 10 cm –2 for occurrence probabilities ≈10 –2 , 10 –3 , and 10 –4 yr –1 , respectively. Because of the uncertainties, our results should be interpreted as a conservative upper limit on the SPE occurrence near Earth. The mean solar energetic particle (SEP) flux is evaluated as ≈40 (cm 2 s) –1 , in agreement with estimates from lunar rocks. On average, extreme SPEs contribute about 10% to the total SEP fluence.

  16. Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values and Evidence of Presence of Dragon King (DK) in Solar Wind

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomes, T.; Ramos, F.; Rempel, E. L.; Silva, S.; C-L Chian, A.

    2017-12-01

    The solar wind constitutes a nonlinear dynamical system, presenting intermittent turbulence, multifractality and chaotic dynamics. One characteristic shared by many such complex systems is the presence of extreme events, that play an important role in several Geophysical phenomena and their statistical characterization is a problem of great practical relevance. This work investigates the presence of extreme events in time series of the modulus of the interplanetary magnetic field measured by Cluster spacecraft on February 2, 2002. One of the main results is that the solar wind near the Earth's bow shock can be modeled by the Generalized Pareto (GP) and Generalized Extreme Values (GEV) distributions. Both models present a statistically significant positive shape parameter which implyies a heavy tail in the probability distribution functions and an unbounded growth in return values as return periods become too long. There is evidence that current sheets are the main responsible for positive values of the shape parameter. It is also shown that magnetic reconnection at the interface between two interplanetary magnetic flux ropes in the solar wind can be considered as Dragon Kings (DK), a class of extreme events whose formation mechanisms are fundamentally different from others. As long as magnetic reconnection can be classified as a Dragon King, there is the possibility of its identification and even its prediction. Dragon kings had previously been identified in time series of financial crashes, nuclear power generation accidents, stock market and so on. It is believed that they are associated with the occurrence of extreme events in dynamical systems at phase transition, bifurcation, crises or tipping points.

  17. Radar observations of a tornado-spawning storm complex in Southeast Brazil and Meso-Eta forecasts of this extreme event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Held, Gerhard; Gomes, Jorge Luis; Gomes, Ana Maria

    2014-05-01

    During the early afternoon of 22 September 2013, severe storms, accompanied by large hail, damaging winds, heavy precipitation and intense lightning activity, devastated a region in the southeast State of São Paulo. Several extremely intense storm cells moved at up to 80 km/h east-southeastwards, ahead of a strong cold front approaching through Paraná, which created extremely unstable conditions that led to deep convection and overshooting towers up to 18 km. At least one of theses cells spawned a tornado when it reached the town of Taquarituba. The tornado traversed the town from south-southwest to north-northeast and was responsible for 63 people injured and two fatalities. Based on the damage reported, it was at least an F3 according to the Fujita scale. The objective of the present study is to characterize this severe thunderstorm event, using different types of data, and to evaluate the forecasts provided by the Meso-Eta model centered over Bauru. The pre-frontal and frontal convective cells were tracked throughout their life-time by IPMet's Doppler radars, which cover the western and central regions of the State São Paulo, as well as northern Paraná State. Radar volume scans, generated every 7,5 min, were processed with the TITAN (Thunderstorm Identification, Tracking, Analysis and Nowcasting) Software, yielding the following preliminary results: as the storm complex traversed the Paranapanema River, which forms the border between the two states, the cells intensified drastically and shortly before reaching the town of Taquarituba, that particular cell displayed extremely strong radial shear just above the cloud base (about -20 to +35 m/s), which led to the formation of a deep meso-cyclone, from which the tornado spawned and touched down at around 14:30 LT (LT=UT-3h). Cell properties calculated by TITAN showed a drastic increase of VIL (Vertically Integrated Liquid water content) from 13:52 LT (7,9 kg/m2) to a maximum of 61,8 kg/m2 at 14:15 LT. From 14

  18. Solar cycle distribution of strong solar proton events and the related solar-terrestrial phenomena

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le, Guiming; Yang, Xingxing; Ding, Liuguang; Liu, Yonghua; Lu, Yangping; Chen, Minhao

    2014-08-01

    We investigated the solar cycle distribution of strong solar proton events (SPEs, peak flux ≥1000 pfu) and the solar-terrestrial phenomena associated with the strong SPEs during solar cycles 21-23. The results show that 37 strong SPEs were registered over this period of time, where 20 strong SPEs were originated from the super active regions (SARs) and 28 strong SPEs were accompanied by the X-class flares. Most strong SPEs were not associated with the ground level enhancement (GLE) event. Most strong SPEs occurred in the descending phases of the solar cycles. The weaker the solar cycle, the higher the proportion of strong SPES occurred in the descending phase of the cycle. The number of the strong SPEs that occurred within a solar cycle is poorly associated with the solar cycle size. The intensity of the SPEs is highly dependent of the location of their source regions, with the super SPEs (≥20000 pfu) distributed around solar disk center. A super SPE was always accompanied by a fast shock driven by the associated coronal mass ejection and a great geomagnetic storm. The source location of strongest GLE event is distributed in the well-connected region. The SPEs associated with super GLE events (peak increase rate ≥100%) which have their peak flux much lower than 10000 pfu were not accompanied by an intense geomagnetic storm.

  19. Multivariate Hybrid Modelling of Future Wave-Storms at the Northwestern Black Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jue Lin-Ye

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The characterization of future wave-storms and their relationship to large-scale climate can provide useful information for environmental or urban planning at coastal areas. A hybrid methodology (process-based and statistical was used to characterize the extreme wave-climate at the northwestern Black Sea. The Simulating WAve Nearshore spectral wave-model was employed to produce wave-climate projections, forced with wind-fields projections for two climate change scenarios: Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. A non-stationary multivariate statistical model was built, considering significant wave-height and peak-wave-period at the peak of the wave-storm, as well as storm total energy and storm-duration. The climate indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic Pattern, and Scandinavian Pattern have been used as covariates to link to storminess, wave-storm threshold, and wave-storm components in the statistical model. The results show that, first, under both RCP scenarios, the mean values of significant wave-height and peak-wave-period at the peak of the wave-storm remain fairly constant over the 21st century. Second, the mean value of storm total energy is more markedly increasing in the RCP4.5 scenario than in the RCP8.5 scenario. Third, the mean value of storm-duration is increasing in the RCP4.5 scenario, as opposed to the constant trend in the RCP8.5 scenario. The variance of each wave-storm component increases when the corresponding mean value increases under both RCP scenarios. During the 21st century, the East Atlantic Pattern and changes in its pattern have a special influence on wave-storm conditions. Apart from the individual characteristics of each wave-storm component, wave-storms with both extreme energy and duration can be expected in the 21st century. The dependence between all the wave-storm components is moderate, but grows with time and, in general, the severe emission scenario of RCP8.5 presents

  20. Complex active regions as the main source of extreme and large solar proton events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishkov, V. N.

    2013-12-01

    A study of solar proton sources indicated that solar flare events responsible for ≥2000 pfu proton fluxes mostly occur in complex active regions (CARs), i.e., in transition structures between active regions and activity complexes. Different classes of similar structures and their relation to solar proton events (SPEs) and evolution, depending on the origination conditions, are considered. Arguments in favor of the fact that sunspot groups with extreme dimensions are CARs are presented. An analysis of the flare activity in a CAR resulted in the detection of "physical" boundaries, which separate magnetic structures of the same polarity and are responsible for the independent development of each structure.

  1. Solar radiophysics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McLean, D.J.; Labrum, N.R.

    1985-01-01

    This book treats all aspects of solar radioastronomy at metre wavelengths, particularly work carried out on the Australian radioheliograph at Culgoora, with which most of the authors have been associated in one way or another. After an introductory section on historical aspects, the solar atmosphere, solar flares, and coronal radio emission, the book deals with instrumentation, theory, and details of observations and interpretations of the various aspects of metrewave solar radioastronomy, including burst types, solar storms, and the quiet sun. (U.K.)

  2. High-Latitude Topside Ionospheric Vertical Electron Density Profile Changes in Response to Large Magnetic Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benson, Robert F.; Fainberg, Joseph; Osherovich, Vladimir A.; Truhlik, Vladimir; Wang, Yongli; Bilitza, Dieter; Fung, Shing F.

    2016-01-01

    Large magnetic-storm-induced changes were detected in high-latitude topside vertical electron density profiles Ne(h) in a database of profiles and digital topside ionograms, from the International Satellites for Ionospheric Studies (ISIS) program, that enabled Ne(h) profiles to be obtained in nearly the same region of space before, during, and after a major magnetic storm (Dst -100nT). Storms where Ne(h) profiles were available in the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere had better coverage of solar wind parameters than storms with available Ne(h) profiles in the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere. Large Ne(h) changes were observed during all storms, with enhancements and depletions sometimes near a factor of 10 and 0.1, respectively, but with substantial differences in the responses in the two hemispheres. Large spatial andor temporal Ne(h) changes were often observed during Dst minimum and during the storm recovery phase. The storm-induced Ne(h) changes were the most pronounced and consistent in the Northern Hemisphere in that large enhancements were observed during winter nighttime and large depletions during winter and spring daytime. The limited available cases suggested that these Northern Hemisphere enhancements increased with increases of the time-shifted solar wind velocity v, magnetic field B, and with more negative values of the B components except for the highest common altitude (1100km) of the profiles. There was also some evidence suggesting that the Northern Hemisphere depletions were related to changes in the solar wind parameters. Southern Hemisphere storm-induced enhancements and depletions were typically considerably less with depletions observed during summer nighttime conditions and enhancements during summer daytime and fall nighttime conditions.

  3. Role of neutral wind and storm time electric fields inferred from the storm time ionization distribution at low latitudes: in-situ measurements by Indian satellite SROSS-C2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Subrahmanyam

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available Recently, there has been a renewal of interest in the study of the effects of solar weather events on the ionization redistribution and irregularity generation. The observed changes at low and equatorial latitudes are rather complex and are noted to be a function of location, the time of the storm onset and its intensity, and various other characteristics of the geomagnetic storms triggered by solar weather events. At these latitudes, the effects of geomagnetic storms are basically due to (a direct penetration of the magnetospheric electric fields to low latitudes, (b development of disturbance dynamo, (c changes in atmospheric neutral winds at ionospheric level and (d changes in neutral composition triggered by the storm time atmospheric heating.

    In the present study an attempt is made to further understand some of the observed storm time effects in terms of storm time changes in zonal electric fields and meridional neutral winds. For this purpose, observations made by the Retarding Potential Analyzer (RPA payload on board the Indian satellite SROSS-C2 are examined for four prominent geomagnetic storm events that occurred during the high solar activity period of 1997-2000. Available simultaneous observations, from the GPS satellite network, are also used. The daytime passes of SROSS-C2 have been selected to examine the redistribution of ionization in the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA region. In general, EIA is observed to be weakened 12-24 h after the main phase onset (MPO of the storm. The storm time behaviour inferred by SROSS-C2 and the GPS satellite network during the geomagnetic storm of 13 November 1998, for which simultaneous observations are available, is found to be consistent. Storm time changes in the delay of received GPS signals are noted to be ~1-3 m, which is a significant component of the total delay observed on a quiet day.

    An attempt is made to identify and

  4. Assessing the short-term effects of an extreme storm on Mediterranean forest raptors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez, José E.; Jiménez-Franco, María V.; Zuberogoitia, Iñigo; León-Ortega, Mario; Calvo, José F.

    2013-04-01

    Different species show different responses to natural disturbances, depending on their capacity to exploit the altered environment and occupy new niches. In the case of semi-arid Mediterranean areas, there is no information available on the response of bird communities to disturbance caused by extreme weather events. Here, we evaluate the short-term effects of a heavy snowfall and strong winds on three long-lived species of forest-dwelling raptor in a semi-arid Mediterranean region situated in the south-east of Spain. The loss of nests was significantly higher in the first and second years following the disturbance than in the third year. The three species studied exhibited great tolerance to the short-term effects of the storm since we found no differences in density or reproductive parameters between the nine breeding seasons prior to the disturbance and the three which immediately followed it. We suggest that the tolerance shown by these three species to windstorms in semi-arid Mediterranean zones could be an adaptive response, resulting from the climatic and human pressures which have prevailed from the Bronze Age to the present day.

  5. Acute and emergency care for thyrotoxicosis and thyroid storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    Thyroid hormones affect all organ systems and, in excess, can cause increased metabolic rate, heart rate, ventricle contractility, and gastrointestinal motility as well as muscle and central nervous system excitability. Thyroid storm is the extreme manifestation of thyrotoxicosis with an estimated incidence of 0.20 per 100,000 per year among hospitalized patients in Japan. The mortality of thyroid storm without treatment ranges from 80% to 100%; but with treatment, the mortality rate is between 10% and 50%. The diagnostic strategy for thyroid storm may take into consideration Burch–Wartofsky scoring or Akamizu's diagnostic criteria. Multiple treatment aims need to be addressed in managing thyroid storm effectively. This paper puts together all aspects to be considered for the management of hyperthyroidism and thyroid storm during the acute and emergency phase as well as consideration of special populations. PMID:29123713

  6. Acute and emergency care for thyrotoxicosis and thyroid storm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Idrose, Alzamani Mohammad

    2015-07-01

    Thyroid hormones affect all organ systems and, in excess, can cause increased metabolic rate, heart rate, ventricle contractility, and gastrointestinal motility as well as muscle and central nervous system excitability. Thyroid storm is the extreme manifestation of thyrotoxicosis with an estimated incidence of 0.20 per 100,000 per year among hospitalized patients in Japan. The mortality of thyroid storm without treatment ranges from 80% to 100%; but with treatment, the mortality rate is between 10% and 50%. The diagnostic strategy for thyroid storm may take into consideration Burch-Wartofsky scoring or Akamizu's diagnostic criteria. Multiple treatment aims need to be addressed in managing thyroid storm effectively. This paper puts together all aspects to be considered for the management of hyperthyroidism and thyroid storm during the acute and emergency phase as well as consideration of special populations.

  7. Investigating Changes in the High-Latitude Topside Ionosphere During Large Magnetic Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fainberg, Joseph; Benson, Robert F.; Osherovich, Vladimir; Truhlik, Vladimir; Wang, Yongli; Fung, Shing; Bilitza, Dieter

    2009-01-01

    A search was conducted to locate periods of nearly simultaneous solar-wind and high latitude topside-ionospheric data during magnetic storms. The focus was on the 20-yr interval from 1965 to 1985 when both solar-wind and Alouette/ISIS topside-sounder data are potentially available. The search yielded 125 large magnetic storms (minimum Dst less than 100) and 280 moderate magnetic storms (minimum Dst between -60 and -100). Solar wind data were available for most, but not all, of these storms. A search of the available high-latitude topside electron-density Ne(h) profiles available from the National Space Science Data Center (NSSDC), both from manual inspection of 35-mm film ionograms in the 1960s and more recent auto-processing of ISIS-2 topside digital ionograms using the TOPIST software, during 9-day intervals associated with the 125 large magnetic storm minimum Dst times yielded the following results: 31 intervals had 10 or more manual-scaled profiles (21 intervals had more than 100 profiles and 5 of these had more than 1,000 profiles), and 34 intervals had 10 or more TOPIST profiles (2 intervals had more than 100 profiles). In addition, a search of the available Alouette-2, ISIS-1 and ISIS-2 digital ionograms during the above periods has yielded encouraging initial results in that many ISIS-1 ionograms were found for the early time intervals. Future work will include the search for 35-mm film ionograms during selected intervals. This presentation will illustrate the results of this investigation to date.

  8. Observations and Predictions of Wave Runup, Extreme Water Levels, and Medium-Term Dune Erosion during Storm Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serge Suanez

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Monitoring of dune erosion and accretion on the high-energy macrotidal Vougot beach in North Brittany (France over the past decade (2004–2014 has revealed significant morphological changes. Dune toe erosion/accretion records have been compared with extreme water level measurements, defined as the sum of (i astronomic tide; (ii storm surge; and (iii vertical wave runup. Runup parameterization was conducted using swash limits, beach profiles, and hydrodynamic (Hm0, Tm0,–1, and high tide water level—HTWL data sets obtained from high frequency field surveys. The aim was to quantify in-situ environmental conditions and dimensional swash parameters for the best calibration of Battjes [1] runup formula. In addition, an empirical equation based on observed tidal water level and offshore wave height was produced to estimate extreme water levels over the whole period of dune morphological change monitoring. A good correlation between this empirical equation (1.01Hmoξo and field runup measurements (Rmax was obtained (R2 85%. The goodness of fit given by the RMSE was about 0.29 m. A good relationship was noticed between dune erosion and high water levels when the water levels exceeded the dune foot elevation. In contrast, when extreme water levels were below the height of the toe of the dune sediment budget increased, inducing foredune recovery. These erosion and accretion phases may be related to the North Atlantic Oscillation Index.

  9. Extreme changes in the dayside ionosphere during a Carrington-type magnetic storm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mannucci Anthony J.

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available It is shown that during the 30 October 2003 superstorm, dayside O+ ions were uplifted to DMSP altitudes (~850 km. Peak densities were ~9 × 105 cm−3 during the magnetic storm main phase (peak Dst = −390 nT. By comparison the 1–2 September 1859 Carrington magnetic storm (peak Dst estimated at −1760 nT was considerably stronger. We investigate the impact of this storm on the low- to mid-latitude ionosphere using a modified version of the NRL SAMI2 ionospheric code. It is found that the equatorial region (LAT = 0° ± 15° is swept free of plasma within 15 min (or less of storm onset. The plasma is swept to higher altitudes and higher latitudes due to E × B convection associated with the prompt penetration electric field. Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA O+ density enhancements are found to be located within the broad range of latitudes ~ ± (25°–40° at ~500–900 km altitudes. Densities within these peaks are ~6 × 106 oxygen ions-cm−3 at ~700 km altitude, approximately +600% quiet time values. The oxygen ions at the top portions (850–1000 km of uplifted EIAs will cause strong low-altitude satellite drag. Calculations are currently being performed on possible uplift of oxygen neutrals by ion-neutral coupling to understand if there might be further significant satellite drag forces present.

  10. Study of the mid-latitude ionospheric response to geomagnetic storms in the European region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berényi, Kitti Alexandra; Barta, Veronika; Kis, Arpad

    2016-07-01

    Geomagnetic storms affect the ionospheric regions of the terrestrial upper atmosphere through different physical and atmospheric processes. The phenomena that can be regarded as a result of these processes, generally is named as "ionospheric storm". The processes depend on altitude, segment of the day, the geomagnetic latitude and longitude, strength of solar activity and the type of the geomagnetic storm. We examine the data of ground-based radio wave ionosphere sounding measurements of European ionospheric stations (mainly the data of Nagycenk Geophysical Observatory) in order to determine how and to what extent a geomagnetic disturbance of a certain strength affects the mid-latitude ionospheric regions in winter and in summer. For our analysis we used disturbed time periods between November 2012 and June 2015. Our results show significant changing of the ionospheric F2 layer parameters on strongly disturbed days compared to quiet ones. We show that the critical frequencies (foF2) increase compared to their quiet day value when the ionospheric storm was positive. On the other hand, the critical frequencies become lower, when the storm was negative. In our analysis we determined the magnitude of these changes on the chosen days. For a more complete analysis we compare also the evolution of the F2 layer parameters of the European ionosonde stations on a North-South geographic longitude during a full storm duration. The results present the evolution of an ionospheric storm over a geographic meridian. Furthermore, we compared the two type of geomagnetic storms, namely the CME caused geomagnetic storm - the so-called Sudden impulse (Si) storms- and the HSS (High Speed Solar Wind Streams) caused geomagnetic storms -the so-called Gradual storms (Gs)- impact on the ionospheric F2-layer (foF2 parameter). The results show a significant difference between the effect of Si and of the Gs storms on the ionospheric F2-layer.

  11. OCCURRENCE OF EXTREME SOLAR PARTICLE EVENTS: ASSESSMENT FROM HISTORICAL PROXY DATA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Usoskin, Ilya G. [Sodankylae Geophysical Observatory (Oulu unit) and Department of Physical Sciences, University of Oulu, FIN-90014 Oulu (Finland); Kovaltsov, Gennady A., E-mail: ilya.usoskin@oulu.fi [Ioffe Physical-Technical Institute of RAS, 194021 St. Petersburg (Russian Federation)

    2012-09-20

    The probability of occurrence of extreme solar particle events (SPEs) with proton fluence (>30 MeV) F{sub 30} {>=} 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} is evaluated based on data on the cosmogenic isotopes {sup 14}C and {sup 10}Be in terrestrial archives covering centennial-millennial timescales. Four potential candidates with F{sub 30} = (1-1.5) Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} and no events with F{sub 30} > 2 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} are identified since 1400 AD in the annually resolved {sup 10}Be data. A strong SPE related to the Carrington flare of 1859 AD is not supported by the data. For the last 11,400 years, 19 SPE candidates with F{sub 30} = (1-3) Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} are found and clearly no event with F{sub 30} > 5 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} (50 times the SPE of 1956 February 23) has occurred. These values serve as observational upper limits on the strength of SPEs on the timescale of tens of millennia. Two events, ca. 780 and 1460 AD, appear in different data series making them strong candidates for extreme SPEs. We build a distribution of the occurrence probability of extreme SPEs, providing a new strict observational constraint. Practical limits can be set as F{sub 30} Almost-Equal-To 1, 2-3, and 5 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} for occurrence probabilities Almost-Equal-To 10{sup -2}, 10{sup -3}, and 10{sup -4} yr{sup -1}, respectively. Because of the uncertainties, our results should be interpreted as a conservative upper limit on the SPE occurrence near Earth. The mean solar energetic particle (SEP) flux is evaluated as Almost-Equal-To 40 (cm{sup 2} s){sup -1}, in agreement with estimates from lunar rocks. On average, extreme SPEs contribute about 10% to the total SEP fluence.

  12. Full solar spectrum light driven thermocatalysis with extremely high efficiency on nanostructured Ce ion substituted OMS-2 catalyst for VOCs purification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Jingtao; Li, Yuanzhi; Mao, Mingyang; Yue, Yuanzheng; Greaves, G. Neville; Zhao, Xiujian

    2015-01-01

    The nanostructured Ce ion substituted cryptomelane-type octahedral molecular sieve (OMS-2) catalyst exhibits strong absorption in the entire solar spectrum region. The Ce ion substituted OMS-2 catalyst can efficiently transform the absorbed solar energy to thermal energy, resulting in a considerable increase of temperature. By combining the efficient photothermal conversion and thermocatalytic activity of the Ce ion substituted OMS-2 catalyst, we carried out full solar spectrum, visible-infrared, and infrared light driven catalysis with extremely high efficiency. Under the irradiation of full solar spectrum, visible-infrared, and infrared light, the Ce ion substituted OMS-2 catalyst exhibits extremely high catalytic activity and excellent durability for the oxidation of volatile organic pollutants such as benzene, toluene, and acetone. Based on the experimental evidence, we propose a novel mechanism of solar light driven thermocatalysis for the Ce ion substituted OMS-2 catalyst. The reason why the Ce ion substituted OMS-2 catalyst exhibits much higher catalytic activity than pure OMS-2 and CeO2/OMS-2 nano composite under the full solar spectrum irradiation is discussed.The nanostructured Ce ion substituted cryptomelane-type octahedral molecular sieve (OMS-2) catalyst exhibits strong absorption in the entire solar spectrum region. The Ce ion substituted OMS-2 catalyst can efficiently transform the absorbed solar energy to thermal energy, resulting in a considerable increase of temperature. By combining the efficient photothermal conversion and thermocatalytic activity of the Ce ion substituted OMS-2 catalyst, we carried out full solar spectrum, visible-infrared, and infrared light driven catalysis with extremely high efficiency. Under the irradiation of full solar spectrum, visible-infrared, and infrared light, the Ce ion substituted OMS-2 catalyst exhibits extremely high catalytic activity and excellent durability for the oxidation of volatile organic pollutants

  13. Elliptical magnetic clouds and geomagnetic storms

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Antoniadou, I.; Geranios, A.; Vandas, Marek; Panagopoulou, M.; Zacharopoulou, O.; Malandraki, O.

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 56, 3-4 (2008), s. 492-500 ISSN 0032-0633 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR 1QS300120506; GA ČR GA205/06/0875 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10030501 Keywords : magnetic clouds * geomagnetic storms * solar wind Subject RIV: BN - Astronomy, Celestial Mechanics, Astrophysics Impact factor: 2.506, year: 2008

  14. Solar Extreme UV radiation and quark nugget dark matter model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhitnitsky, Ariel, E-mail: arz@phas.ubc.ca [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, B.C. V6T 1Z1 (Canada)

    2017-10-01

    We advocate the idea that the surprising emission of extreme ultra violet (EUV) radiation and soft x-rays from the Sun are powered externally by incident dark matter (DM) particles. The energy and the spectral shape of this otherwise unexpected solar irradiation is estimated within the quark nugget dark matter model. This model was originally invented as a natural explanation of the observed ratio Ω{sub dark} ∼ Ω{sub visible} when the DM and visible matter densities assume the same order of magnitude values. This generic consequence of the model is a result of the common origin of both types of matter which are formed during the same QCD transition and both proportional to the same fundamental dimensional parameter Λ{sub QCD}. We also present arguments suggesting that the transient brightening-like 'nanoflares' in the Sun may be related to the annihilation events which inevitably occur in the solar atmosphere within this dark matter scenario.

  15. Solar Extreme UV radiation and quark nugget dark matter model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhitnitsky, Ariel

    2017-10-01

    We advocate the idea that the surprising emission of extreme ultra violet (EUV) radiation and soft x-rays from the Sun are powered externally by incident dark matter (DM) particles. The energy and the spectral shape of this otherwise unexpected solar irradiation is estimated within the quark nugget dark matter model. This model was originally invented as a natural explanation of the observed ratio Ωdark ~ Ωvisible when the DM and visible matter densities assume the same order of magnitude values. This generic consequence of the model is a result of the common origin of both types of matter which are formed during the same QCD transition and both proportional to the same fundamental dimensional parameter ΛQCD. We also present arguments suggesting that the transient brightening-like "nanoflares" in the Sun may be related to the annihilation events which inevitably occur in the solar atmosphere within this dark matter scenario.

  16. High-resolution refinement of a storm loss model and estimation of return periods of loss-intensive storms over Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. G. Donat

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available A refined model for the calculation of storm losses is presented, making use of high-resolution insurance loss records for Germany and allowing loss estimates on a spatial level of administrative districts and for single storm events. Storm losses are calculated on the basis of wind speeds from both ERA-Interim and NCEP reanalyses. The loss model reproduces the spatial distribution of observed losses well by taking specific regional loss characteristics into account. This also permits high-accuracy estimates of total cumulated losses, though slightly underestimating the country-wide loss sums for storm "Kyrill", the most severe event in the insurance loss records from 1997 to 2007. A larger deviation, which is assigned to the relatively coarse resolution of the NCEP reanalysis, is only found for one specific rather small-scale event, not adequately captured by this dataset.

    The loss model is subsequently applied to the complete reanalysis period to extend the storm event catalogue to cover years when no systematic insurance records are available. This allows the consideration of loss-intensive storm events back to 1948, enlarging the event catalogue to cover the recent 60+ years, and to investigate the statistical characteristics of severe storm loss events in Germany based on a larger sample than provided by the insurance records only. Extreme value analysis is applied to the loss data to estimate the return periods of loss-intensive storms, yielding a return period for storm "Kyrill", for example, of approximately 15 to 21 years.

  17. Hindcast of extreme sea states in North Atlantic extratropical storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponce de León, Sonia; Guedes Soares, Carlos

    2015-02-01

    This study examines the variability of freak wave parameters around the eye of northern hemisphere extratropical cyclones. The data was obtained from a hindcast performed with the WAve Model (WAM) model forced by the wind fields of the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). The hindcast results were validated against the wave buoys and satellite altimetry data showing a good correlation. The variability of different wave parameters was assessed by applying the empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) technique on the hindcast data. From the EOF analysis, it can be concluded that the first empirical orthogonal function (V1) accounts for greater share of variability of significant wave height (Hs), peak period (Tp), directional spreading (SPR) and Benjamin-Feir index (BFI). The share of variance in V1 varies for cyclone and variable: for the 2nd storm and Hs V1 contains 96 % of variance while for the 3rd storm and BFI V1 accounts only for 26 % of variance. The spatial patterns of V1 show that the variables are distributed around the cyclones centres mainly in a lobular fashion.

  18. Manifestation of interplanetary medium parameters in development of a geomagnetic storm initial phase

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chkhetiya, A.M.

    1988-01-01

    The role of solar wind plasma parameters in formation of a geomagnetic storm initial phase is refined. On the basis of statistical analysis an empirical formula relating the interplanetary medium parameters (components of interplanetary magnetic field, proton velocity and concentration) and D st -index during the geomagnetic storm initial phase is proposed

  19. Extreme ultraviolet observations of coronal holes. II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bohlin, J.D.; Sheeley, N.R. Jr.

    1978-01-01

    Extreme-ultraviolet Skylab and ground-based solar magnetic field data have been combined to study the origin and evolution of coronal holes. It is shown that holes exist only within the large-scale unipolar magnetic cells into which the solar surface is divided at any given time. A well-defined boundary zone usually exists between the edge of a hole and the neutral line which marks the edge of its magnetic cell. This boundary zone is the region across which a cell is connected by magnetic arcades with adjacent cells of opposite polarity. Three pieces of observational evidence are offered to support the hypothesis that the magnetic lines of force from a hole are open. Kitt Peak magnetograms are used to show that, at least on a relative scale, the average field strengths within holes are quite variable, but indistinguishable from the field strengths in other quiet parts of the Sun's surface. Finally it is shown that the large, equatorial holes characteristic of the declining phase of the last solar cycle during Skylab (1973-74) were all formed as a result of the mergence of bipolar magnetic regions (BMR's), confirming an earlier hypothesis by Timothy et al. (1975). Systematic application of this model to the different aspects of the solar cycle correctly predicts the occurrence of both large, equatorial coronal holes (the 'M-regions' which cause recurrent geomagnetic storms) and the polar cap holes. (Auth.)

  20. Modeling storm waves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benoit, M.; Marcos, F.; Teisson, Ch.

    1999-01-01

    Nuclear power stations located on the coast take the water they use to cool their circuits from the sea. The water intake and discharge devices must be able to operate in all weathers, notably during extreme storms, with waves 10 m high and over. To predict the impact of the waves on the equipment, they are modeled digitally from the moment they form in the middle of the ocean right up to the moment they break on the shore. (authors)

  1. Giant boulders and Last Interglacial storm intensity in the North Atlantic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rovere, A.; Casella, E.; Harris, D.L.; Lorscheid, T; Nandasena, N.A.K.; Dyer, B.; Sandstrom, M.R.; Stocchi, P.; D’Andrea, W.J.; Raymo, M.E.

    2017-01-01

    As global climate warms and sea level rises, coastal areas will be subject to more frequent extreme flooding and hurricanes. Geologic evidence for extreme coastal storms during past warm periods has the potential to provide fundamental insights into their future intensity. Recent studies argue that

  2. Regional Climate Impacts of Stabilizing Global Warming at 1.5 K Using Solar Geoengineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Anthony C.; Hawcroft, Matthew K.; Haywood, James M.; Jones, Andy; Guo, Xiaoran; Moore, John C.

    2018-02-01

    The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2 K above preindustrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 K, in order to avert dangerous climate change. However, current greenhouse gas emissions targets are more compatible with scenarios exhibiting end-of-century global warming of 2.6-3.1 K, in clear contradiction to the 1.5 K target. In this study, we use a global climate model to investigate the climatic impacts of using solar geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection to stabilize global-mean temperature at 1.5 K for the duration of the 21st century against three scenarios spanning the range of plausible greenhouse gas mitigation pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). In addition to stabilizing global mean temperature and offsetting both Arctic sea-ice loss and thermosteric sea-level rise, we find that solar geoengineering could effectively counteract enhancements to the frequency of extreme storms in the North Atlantic and heatwaves in Europe, but would be less effective at counteracting hydrological changes in the Amazon basin and North Atlantic storm track displacement. In summary, solar geoengineering may reduce global mean impacts but is an imperfect solution at the regional level, where the effects of climate change are experienced. Our results should galvanize research into the regionality of climate responses to solar geoengineering.

  3. CAN A NANOFLARE MODEL OF EXTREME-ULTRAVIOLET IRRADIANCES DESCRIBE THE HEATING OF THE SOLAR CORONA?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tajfirouze, E.; Safari, H. [Department of Physics, University of Zanjan, P.O. Box 45195-313, Zanjan (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2012-01-10

    Nanoflares, the basic units of impulsive energy release, may produce much of the solar background emission. Extrapolation of the energy frequency distribution of observed microflares, which follows a power law to lower energies, can give an estimation of the importance of nanoflares for heating the solar corona. If the power-law index is greater than 2, then the nanoflare contribution is dominant. We model a time series of extreme-ultraviolet emission radiance as random flares with a power-law exponent of the flare event distribution. The model is based on three key parameters: the flare rate, the flare duration, and the power-law exponent of the flare intensity frequency distribution. We use this model to simulate emission line radiance detected in 171 A, observed by Solar Terrestrial Relation Observatory/Extreme-Ultraviolet Imager and Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly. The observed light curves are matched with simulated light curves using an Artificial Neural Network, and the parameter values are determined across the active region, quiet Sun, and coronal hole. The damping rate of nanoflares is compared with the radiative losses cooling time. The effect of background emission, data cadence, and network sensitivity on the key parameters of the model is studied. Most of the observed light curves have a power-law exponent, {alpha}, greater than the critical value 2. At these sites, nanoflare heating could be significant.

  4. Data Assimilation within the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) Modeling Framework for Hurricane Storm Surge Forecasting

    KAUST Repository

    Butler, T.; Altaf, Muhammad; Dawson, C.; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Luo, X.; Mayo, T.

    2012-01-01

    levels, and wave heights—during these extreme events. This type of data, if available in real time, could be used in a data assimilation framework to improve hurricane storm surge forecasts. In this paper a data assimilation methodology for storm surge

  5. Positive and negative ionospheric storms occurring during the 15 May 2005 geomagnetic superstorm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horvath, Ildiko; Lovell, Brian C.

    2015-09-01

    This study focuses on the 15 May 2005 geomagnetic superstorm and aims to investigate the global variation of positive and negative storm phases and their development. Observations are provided by a series of global total electron content maps and multi-instrument line plots. Coupled Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Plasmasphere electrodynamics (CTIPe) simulations are also employed. Results reveal some sunward streaming plumes of storm-enhanced density (SED) over Asia and a well-developed midlatitude trough over North America forming isolated positive and negative storms, respectively. The simultaneous development of positive and negative storms over North America is also shown. Then, some enhanced auroral ionizations maintained by strong equatorward neutral winds appeared in the depleted nighttime ionosphere. Meanwhile, the northern nighttime polar region became significantly depleted as the SED plume plasma could not progress further than the dayside cusp. Oppositely, a polar tongue of ionization (TOI) developed in the daytime southern polar region. According to CTIP simulations, solar heating locally maximized (minimized) over the southern (northern) magnetic pole. Furthermore, strong upward surges of molecular-rich air created O/N2 decreases both in the auroral zone and in the trough region, while some SED-related downward surges produced O/N2 increases. From these results we conclude for the time period studied that (1) composition changes contributed to the formation of positive and negative storms, (2) strengthening polar convection and increasing solar heating of the polar cap supported polar TOI development, and (3) a weaker polar convection and minimized solar heating of the polar cap aided the depletion of polar plasma.

  6. Topographic Correction Module at Storm (TC@Storm)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaksek, K.; Cotar, K.; Veljanovski, T.; Pehani, P.; Ostir, K.

    2015-04-01

    Different solar position in combination with terrain slope and aspect result in different illumination of inclined surfaces. Therefore, the retrieved satellite data cannot be accurately transformed to the spectral reflectance, which depends only on the land cover. The topographic correction should remove this effect and enable further automatic processing of higher level products. The topographic correction TC@STORM was developed as a module within the SPACE-SI automatic near-real-time image processing chain STORM. It combines physical approach with the standard Minnaert method. The total irradiance is modelled as a three-component irradiance: direct (dependent on incidence angle, sun zenith angle and slope), diffuse from the sky (dependent mainly on sky-view factor), and diffuse reflected from the terrain (dependent on sky-view factor and albedo). For computation of diffuse irradiation from the sky we assume an anisotropic brightness of the sky. We iteratively estimate a linear combination from 10 different models, to provide the best results. Dependent on the data resolution, we mask shades based on radiometric (image) or geometric properties. The method was tested on RapidEye, Landsat 8, and PROBA-V data. Final results of the correction were evaluated and statistically validated based on various topography settings and land cover classes. Images show great improvements in shaded areas.

  7. Revisiting the synoptic-scale predictability of severe European winter storms using ECMWF ensemble reforecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Pantillon

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available New insights into the synoptic-scale predictability of 25 severe European winter storms of the 1995–2015 period are obtained using the homogeneous ensemble reforecast dataset from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The predictability of the storms is assessed with different metrics including (a the track and intensity to investigate the storms' dynamics and (b the Storm Severity Index to estimate the impact of the associated wind gusts. The storms are well predicted by the whole ensemble up to 2–4 days ahead. At longer lead times, the number of members predicting the observed storms decreases and the ensemble average is not clearly defined for the track and intensity. The Extreme Forecast Index and Shift of Tails are therefore computed from the deviation of the ensemble from the model climate. Based on these indices, the model has some skill in forecasting the area covered by extreme wind gusts up to 10 days, which indicates a clear potential for early warnings. However, large variability is found between the individual storms. The poor predictability of outliers appears related to their physical characteristics such as explosive intensification or small size. Longer datasets with more cases would be needed to further substantiate these points.

  8. Final Scientific/Technical Report for Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Extratropical Storm Track Activity over the U.S. using NMME data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang, Edmund Kar-Man [Stony Brook Univ., NY (United States)

    2017-10-30

    The goals of the project are: 1) To develop and assess subseasonal to seasonal prediction products for storm track activity derived from NMME data; 2) Assess how much of the predictable signal can be associated with ENSO and other modes of large scale low frequency atmosphere-ocean variability; and 3) Further explore the link between storm track variations and extreme weather statistics. Significant findings of this project include the followings: 1) Our assessment of NMME reforecasts of storm track variability has demonstrated that NMME models have substantial skill in predicting storm track activity in the vicinity of North America - Subseasonal skill is high only for leads of less than 1 month. However, seasonal (winter) prediction skill near North America is high even out to 4 to 5 months lead - Much of the skill for leads of 1 month or longer is related to the influence of ENSO - Nevertheless, lead 0 NMME predictions are significantly more skillful than those based on ENSO influence 2) Our results have demonstrated that storm track variations highly modulate the frequency of occurrence of weather extremes - Extreme cold, high wind, and extreme precipitation events in winter - Extreme heat events in summer - These results suggest that NMME storm track predictions can be developed to serve as a useful guidance to assist the formulation of monthly/seasonal outlooks

  9. Identification of possible intense historical geomagnetic storms using combined sunspot and auroral observations from East Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. M. Willis

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available Comprehensive catalogues of ancient sunspot and auroral observations from East Asia are used to identify possible intense historical geomagnetic storms in the interval 210 BC-AD 1918. There are about 270 entries in the sunspot catalogue and about 1150 entries in the auroral catalogue. Special databases have been constructed in which the scientific information in these two catalogues is placed in specified fields. For the purposes of this study, an historical geomagnetic storm is defined in terms of an auroral observation that is apparently associated with a particular sunspot observation, in the sense that the auroral observation occurred within several days of the sunspot observation. More precisely, a selection criterion is formulated for the automatic identification of such geomagnetic storms, using the oriental records stored in the sunspot and auroral databases. The selection criterion is based on specific assumptions about the duration of sunspot visibility with the unaided eye, the likely range of heliographic longitudes of an energetic solar feature, and the likely range of transit times for ejected solar plasma to travel from the Sun to the Earth. This selection criterion results in the identification of nineteen putative historical geomagnetic storms, although two of these storms are spurious in the sense that there are two examples of a single sunspot observation being associated with two different auroral observations separated by more than half a (synodic solar rotation period. The literary and scientific reliabilities of the East Asian sunspot and auroral records that define the nineteen historical geomagnetic storms are discussed in detail in a set of appendices. A possible time sequence of events is presented for each geomagnetic storm, including possible dates for both the central meridian passage of the sunspot and the occurrence of the energetic solar feature, as well as likely transit times for the ejected solar plasma

  10. Hydrodynamic Based Decision Making Framework for Impact Assessment of Extreme Storm Events on Coastal Communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nazari, R.; Miller, K.; Hurler, C.

    2015-12-01

    Coastal and inland flooding has been a problematic occurrence, specifically over the past century. Global warming has caused an 8 inch sea level rise since 1990, which made the coastal flood zone wider, deeper and more damaging. Additionally, riverine flooding is extremely damaging to the country's substructure and economy as well which causes river banks to overflow, inundating low-lying areas. New Jersey and New York are two areas at severe risk for flood hazard, sea level rise, land depletion and economic loss which are the main study area of this work. A decision making framework is being built to help mitigate the impacts of the environmental and economical dangers of storm surges, sea level rise, flashfloods and inland flooding. With vigorous research and the use of innovative hydrologic modeling software, this tool can be built and utilized to form resiliency for coastal communities. This will allow the individuals living in a coastal community to understand the details of climatic hazards in their area and risks associated to their communities. This tool will also suggest the best solution for the problem each community faces. Atlantic City and New York City has been modeled and compared using potential storm events and the outcomes have been analyzed. The tool offers all the possible solutions for the type of flooding that occurs. Green infrastructure such as rain gardens, detention basins and green roofs can be used as small scale solutions. Greater scale solutions such as removable flood barriers, concrete walls and height adjustable walls will also be displayed if that poses as the best solution. The results and benefits from the simulation and modeling techniques, will allow coastal communities to choose the most appropriate method for building a long lasting and sustainable resilience plan in the future.

  11. Fine structure in fast drift storm bursts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McConnell, D.; Ellis, G.R.A.

    1981-01-01

    Recent observations with high time resolution of fast drift storm (FDS) solar bursts are described. A new variety of FDS bursts characterised by intensity maxima regularly placed in the frequency domain is reported. Possible interpretations of this are mentioned and the implications of the short duration of FDS bursts are discussed. (orig.)

  12. Statistical Analysis of Solar Events Associated with Storm Sudden Commencements over One Year of Solar Maximum during Cycle 23: Propagation and Effects from the Sun to the Earth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bocchialini, K.; Grison, B.; Menvielle, M.; Chambodut, A.; Cornilleau-Wehrlin, N.; Fontaine, D.; Marchaudon, A.; Pick, M.; Pitout, F.; Schmieder, B.; Régnier, S.; Zouganelis, I.

    2017-12-01

    From the list of 32 SSCs over the year 2002, we performed a multi-criteria analysis based on propagation time, velocity comparison, sense of the magnetic field rotation, radio waves to associate them with solar sources, identify their causes in the interplanetary medium and then look at the response of the terrestrial ionized and neutral environment to them. The complex interactions between two (or more) CMEs and the modification in their trajectory have been examined using joint white light and multiple-wavelength radio observations. The structures at L_1 after the 32 SSCs are regarded as Magnetic Clouds (MCs), ICMEs without a MC structure, Miscellaneous structures, CIRs/SIRs, and shock-only events. In terms of geoeffectivity, generally CMEs with velocities at the Sun larger than 1000 km.s-1 have larger probabilities to trigger moderate or intense storms. The most geoeffective events are MCs, since 92% of them trigger moderate or intense storms. The geoeffective events trigger an increased and combined AKR and NTC wave activity in the magnetosphere, an enhanced convection in the ionosphere and a stronger response in the thermosphere.

  13. Ion beam sputtered aluminum based multilayer mirrors for extreme ultraviolet solar imaging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ziani, A. [Laboratoire Charles Fabry, Institut d' Optique, CNRS, Univ Paris Sud, 2 Avenue Augustin Fresnel, 91127 Palaiseau cedex France (France); Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales (CNES), 18 Avenue E. Belin, 31401 Toulouse (France); Delmotte, F., E-mail: Franck.Delmotte@InstitutOptique.fr [Laboratoire Charles Fabry, Institut d' Optique, CNRS, Univ Paris Sud, 2 Avenue Augustin Fresnel, 91127 Palaiseau cedex France (France); Le Paven-Thivet, C. [Institut d' Electronique et de Télécommunications de Rennes (IETR) UMR-CNRS 6164, Université de Rennes 1, UEB, IUT Saint Brieuc, 18 rue Henri Wallon, 22004 Saint Brieuc cedex France (France); Meltchakov, E.; Jérome, A. [Laboratoire Charles Fabry, Institut d' Optique, CNRS, Univ Paris Sud, 2 Avenue Augustin Fresnel, 91127 Palaiseau cedex France (France); Roulliay, M. [Institut des Sciences Moléculaires d’Orsay UMR 8214, Univ Paris Sud, 91405 Orsay France (France); Bridou, F. [Laboratoire Charles Fabry, Institut d' Optique, CNRS, Univ Paris Sud, 2 Avenue Augustin Fresnel, 91127 Palaiseau cedex France (France); Gasc, K. [Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales (CNES), 18 Avenue E. Belin, 31401 Toulouse (France)

    2014-02-03

    In this paper, we report on the design, synthesis and characterization of extreme ultraviolet interferential mirrors for solar imaging applications in the spectral range 17 nm–34 nm. This research is carried out in the context of the preparation of the European Space Agency Solar Orbiter mission. The purpose of this study consists in optimizing the deposition of Al-based multilayers by ion beam sputtering according to several parameters such as the ion beam current and the sputtering angle. After optimization of Al thin films, several kinds of Al-based multilayer mirrors have been compared. We have deposited and characterized bi-material and also tri-material periodic multilayers: aluminum/molybdenum [Al/Mo], aluminum/molybdenum/boron carbide [Al/Mo/B{sub 4}C] and aluminum/molybdenum/silicon carbide [Al/Mo/SiC]. Best experimental results have been obtained on Al/Mo/SiC samples: we have measured reflectivity up to 48% at 17.3 nm and 27.5% at 28.2 nm on a synchrotron radiation source. - Highlights: • Design and synthesis of extreme ultraviolet interferential mirrors. • Optimization of aluminum thin films by adjusting several deposition parameters. • Comparison of results obtained with different types of Al-based multilayer mirrors. • Reflectivity up to 48% at 17.3 nm on a synchrotron radiation source.

  14. Ion beam sputtered aluminum based multilayer mirrors for extreme ultraviolet solar imaging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ziani, A.; Delmotte, F.; Le Paven-Thivet, C.; Meltchakov, E.; Jérome, A.; Roulliay, M.; Bridou, F.; Gasc, K.

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we report on the design, synthesis and characterization of extreme ultraviolet interferential mirrors for solar imaging applications in the spectral range 17 nm–34 nm. This research is carried out in the context of the preparation of the European Space Agency Solar Orbiter mission. The purpose of this study consists in optimizing the deposition of Al-based multilayers by ion beam sputtering according to several parameters such as the ion beam current and the sputtering angle. After optimization of Al thin films, several kinds of Al-based multilayer mirrors have been compared. We have deposited and characterized bi-material and also tri-material periodic multilayers: aluminum/molybdenum [Al/Mo], aluminum/molybdenum/boron carbide [Al/Mo/B 4 C] and aluminum/molybdenum/silicon carbide [Al/Mo/SiC]. Best experimental results have been obtained on Al/Mo/SiC samples: we have measured reflectivity up to 48% at 17.3 nm and 27.5% at 28.2 nm on a synchrotron radiation source. - Highlights: • Design and synthesis of extreme ultraviolet interferential mirrors. • Optimization of aluminum thin films by adjusting several deposition parameters. • Comparison of results obtained with different types of Al-based multilayer mirrors. • Reflectivity up to 48% at 17.3 nm on a synchrotron radiation source

  15. Geometric effects of ICMEs on geomagnetic storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, KyungSuk; Lee, Jae-Ok

    2017-04-01

    It has been known that the geomagnetic storm is occurred by the interaction between the Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) and the Earth's magnetosphere; especially, the southward Bz component of ICME is thought as the main trigger. In this study, we investigate the relationship between Dst index and solar wind conditions; which are the southward Bz, electric field (VBz), and time integral of electric field as well as ICME parameters derived from toroidal fitting model in order to find what is main factor to the geomagnetic storm. We also inspect locations of Earth in ICMEs to understand the geometric effects of the Interplanetary Flux Ropes (IFRs) on the geomagnetic storms. Among 59 CDAW ICME lists, we select 30 IFR events that are available by the toroidal fitting model and classify them into two sub-groups: geomagnetic storms associated with the Magnetic Clouds (MCs) and the compression regions ahead of the MCs (sheath). The main results are as follows: (1) The time integral of electric field has a higher correlation coefficient (cc) with Dst index than the other parameters: cc=0.85 for 25 MC events and cc=0.99 for 5 sheath events. (2) The sheath associated intense storms (Dst ≤-100nT) having usually occur at flank regions of ICMEs while the MC associated intense storms occur regardless of the locations of the Earth in ICMEs. The strength of a geomagnetic storm strongly depends on electric field of IFR and durations of the IFR passages through the Earth.

  16. Magnetospheric storm dynamics in terms of energy output rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prigancova, A.; Feldstein, Ya.I.

    1992-01-01

    Using hourly values of both the global magnetospheric disturbance characteristic DR, and AE index of auroral ionospheric currents during magnetic storm intervals, the energy output rate dynamics is evaluated for a magnetic storm main/recovery phase and a whole storm interval. The magnetospheric response to the solar wind energy input rate under varying interplanetary and magnetospheric conditions is considered from the temporal variability point of view. The peculiarities of the response are traced separately. As far as quantitative characteristics of energy output rate are concerned, the time dependence pattern of the ring current decay parameter is emphasized to be fairly important. It is pointed out that more insight into the plasma processes, especially at L = 3 - 5, is needed for adequate evidence of the dependence. (Author)

  17. Using forecast information for storm ride-through control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barahona Garzón, Braulio; Trombe, Pierre-Julien; Vincent, Claire Louise

    2013-01-01

    Using probabilistic forecast information in control algorithms can improve the performance of wind farms during periods of extreme winds. This work presents a wind farm supervisor control concept that uses probabilistic forecast information to ride-through a storm with softer ramps of power. Wind...... speed forecasts are generated with a statistical approach (i.e. time series models). The supervisor control is based on a set of logical rules that consider point forecasts and predictive densities to ramp-down the power of the wind farm before the storm hits. The potential of this supervisor control...

  18. Impacts of Extreme Space Weather Events on Power Grid Infrastructure: Physics-Based Modelling of Geomagnetically-Induced Currents (GICs) During Carrington-Class Geomagnetic Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henderson, M. G.; Bent, R.; Chen, Y.; Delzanno, G. L.; Jeffery, C. A.; Jordanova, V. K.; Morley, S.; Rivera, M. K.; Toth, G.; Welling, D. T.; Woodroffe, J. R.; Engel, M.

    2017-12-01

    Large geomagnetic storms can have devastating effects on power grids. The largest geomagnetic storm ever recorded - called the Carrington Event - occurred in 1859 and produced Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) strong enough to set fires in telegraph offices. It has been estimated that if such a storm occurred today, it would have devastating, long-lasting effects on the North American power transmission infrastructure. Acutely aware of this imminent threat, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) was recently instructed to establish requirements for transmission system performance during geomagnetic disturbance (GMD) events and, although the benchmarks adopted were based on the best available data at the time, they suffer from a severely limited physical understanding of the behavior of GMDs and the resulting GICs for strong events. To rectify these deficiencies, we are developing a first-of-its-kind data-informed modelling capability that will provide transformational understanding of the underlying physical mechanisms responsible for the most harmful intense localized GMDs and their impacts on real power transmission networks. This work is being conducted in two separate modes of operation: (1) using historical, well-observed large storm intervals for which robust data-assimilation can be performed, and (2) extending the modelling into a predictive realm in order to assess impacts of poorly and/or never-before observed Carrington-class events. Results of this work are expected to include a potential replacement for the current NERC benchmarking methodology and the development of mitigation strategies in real power grid networks. We report on progress to date and show some preliminary results of modeling large (but not yet extreme) events.

  19. Plasmapause Dynamics Observed During the 17 March and 28 June 2013 Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bishop, R. L.; Coster, A. J.; Turner, D. L.; Nikoukar, R.; Lemon, C.; Roeder, J. L.; Shumko, M.; Bhatt, R.; Payne, C.; Bust, G. S.

    2017-12-01

    Earth's plasmasphere is a region of cold (T ≤ 1 eV), dense (n 101 to 104 cm-3) plasma located in the inner magnetosphere and coincident with a portion of the ionosphere that co-rotates with the planet in the geomagnetic field. Plasmaspheric plasma originates in the ionosphere and fills the magnetic flux tubes on which the corotation electric field dominates over the convection electric field. The corotation electric field results from Earth's spinning magnetic field while the convection electric field results from the solar wind driving of global plasma convection within the magnetosphere. The outer boundary of the plasmasphere is the plasmapause, and it corresponds to the transition region between corotation-driven vs. convection-driven plasmas. When the convection electric field is enhanced during active solar wind periods, such as magnetic storms, the plasmasphere can rapidly erode to L 2.5 or less. During subsequent quiet periods of low solar wind speed and weak interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), ionospheric outflow from lower altitudes refills the plasmasphere over the course of several days or more, with the plasmapause expanding to higher L-shells. The combination of convection, corotation, and ionospheric plasma outflow during and after a storm leads to characteristic features such as plasmaspheric shoulders, notches, and plumes. In this presentation, we focus on the dynamics of the plasmapause during two storms in 2013: March 17 and June 28. The minimum Dst for the two storms were -139 and -98 nT, respectively. We examine plasmapause dynamics utilizing data from an extensive global network of ground-based scientific GPS receivers ( 4000) and line-of-sight observations from the GPS receivers on the COSMIC and C/NOFS satellites, along with data from THEMIS and van Allen Probes, and Millstone Hill Incoherent Scatter Radar. Using the various datasets, we will compare the pre-storm and storm-time plasmasphere. We will also examine the location, evolution

  20. Magnetic storm effect on the occurrence of ionospheric irregularities at an equatorial station in the African sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olushola Abel Oladipo

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Large-scale ionospheric irregularities usually measured by GPS TEC fluctuation indices are regular occurrence at the equatorial region shortly after sunset around solar maximum. Magnetic storm can trigger or inhibit the generation of these irregularities depending on the local time the main phase of a particular storm occurs. We studied the effect of nine (9 distinct storms on the occurrence of ionospheric irregularities at Fraceville in Gabon (Lat = −1.63˚, Long = 13.55˚, dip lat. = −15.94˚, an equatorial station in the African sector. These storms occurred between November 2001 and September 2002. We used TEC fluctuation indices (i.e. ROTI and ROTIAVE estimated from 30 s interval Rinex data and also we used the storm indices (i.e. Dst, dDst/dt, and IMF BZ to predict the likely effect of each storm on the irregularities occurrence at this station. The results obtained showed that most of the storms studied inhibited ionospheric irregularities. Only one out of all the storms studied (i.e. September 4, 2002 storms with the main phase on the night of September 7-8 triggered post-midnight ionospheric irregularities. There are two of the storms during which ionospheric irregularities were observed. However, these may not be solely attributed to the storms event because the level of irregularities observed during these two storms is comparable to that observed during previous days before the storms. For this station and for the storms investigated, it seems like a little modification to the use of Aarons categories in terms of the local time the maximum negative Dst occurs could lead to a better prediction. However, it would require investigating many storms during different level of solar activities and at different latitudes to generalize this modification.

  1. Solar photovoltaic power forecasting using optimized modified extreme learning machine technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manoja Kumar Behera

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Prediction of photovoltaic power is a significant research area using different forecasting techniques mitigating the effects of the uncertainty of the photovoltaic generation. Increasingly high penetration level of photovoltaic (PV generation arises in smart grid and microgrid concept. Solar source is irregular in nature as a result PV power is intermittent and is highly dependent on irradiance, temperature level and other atmospheric parameters. Large scale photovoltaic generation and penetration to the conventional power system introduces the significant challenges to microgrid a smart grid energy management. It is very critical to do exact forecasting of solar power/irradiance in order to secure the economic operation of the microgrid and smart grid. In this paper an extreme learning machine (ELM technique is used for PV power forecasting of a real time model whose location is given in the Table 1. Here the model is associated with the incremental conductance (IC maximum power point tracking (MPPT technique that is based on proportional integral (PI controller which is simulated in MATLAB/SIMULINK software. To train single layer feed-forward network (SLFN, ELM algorithm is implemented whose weights are updated by different particle swarm optimization (PSO techniques and their performance are compared with existing models like back propagation (BP forecasting model. Keywords: PV array, Extreme learning machine, Maximum power point tracking, Particle swarm optimization, Craziness particle swarm optimization, Accelerate particle swarm optimization, Single layer feed-forward network

  2. Mars atmospheric phenomena during major dust storms, as measured at surface

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ryan, J.A.; Henry, R.M.

    1979-01-01

    Meteorological instrumentation aboard the Viking Mars Landers measures wind, temperature, and pressure. Two global dust storms occurred during northern autumn and winter, observed both by the orbiters and by the landers. The meteorological data from the landers has been analyzed for the period just before first storm arrival to just after second storm arrival, with the objectives being definition of meteorological phenomena during the storm period, determination of those associated with storm and dust arrival, and evaluation of effects on synoptic conditions and the general circulation. Times of dust arrival over the sites could be defined fairly closely from optical and pressure (solar tide) data, and dust arrival was also accompanied by changes in diurnal temperature range, temperature maxima, and temperature minima. The arrivals of the storms at VL-1 were accompanied by significant increase in wind speed and pressure. No such changes were observed at VL-2. It is possible that surface material could have been raised locally at VL-1. Throughout the period except following the second dust storm synoptic picture at VL-2 was one of eastward moving cyclonic and anticyclonic systems. These disappeared following the second storm, a phenomenon which may be related to the storm

  3. On the improvement of wave and storm surge hindcasts by downscaled atmospheric forcing: application to historical storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bresson, Émilie; Arbogast, Philippe; Aouf, Lotfi; Paradis, Denis; Kortcheva, Anna; Bogatchev, Andrey; Galabov, Vasko; Dimitrova, Marieta; Morvan, Guillaume; Ohl, Patrick; Tsenova, Boryana; Rabier, Florence

    2018-04-01

    Winds, waves and storm surges can inflict severe damage in coastal areas. In order to improve preparedness for such events, a better understanding of storm-induced coastal flooding episodes is necessary. To this end, this paper highlights the use of atmospheric downscaling techniques in order to improve wave and storm surge hindcasts. The downscaling techniques used here are based on existing European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalyses (ERA-20C, ERA-40 and ERA-Interim). The results show that the 10 km resolution data forcing provided by a downscaled atmospheric model gives a better wave and surge hindcast compared to using data directly from the reanalysis. Furthermore, the analysis of the most extreme mid-latitude cyclones indicates that a four-dimensional blending approach improves the whole process, as it assimilates more small-scale processes in the initial conditions. Our approach has been successfully applied to ERA-20C (the 20th century reanalysis).

  4. Controlling of merging electric field and IMF magnitude on storm-time changes in thermospheric mass density

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhou, Y.L.; Ma, S.Y.; Liu, R.S.; Luehr, H.; Doornbos, E.

    2013-01-01

    The controls of merging electrical field, Em, and IMF (interplanetary magnetic field) magnitude, B, on the storm-time changes in upper thermospheric mass density are statistically investigated using GRACE accelerometer observations and the OMNI data of solar wind and IMF for 35 great storms during

  5. Interplanetary ions during an energetic storm particle event: The distribution function from solar wind thermal energies to 1.6 MeV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gosling, J.T.; Asbridge, J.R.; Bame, S.J.; Feldman, W.C.; Zwickl, R.D.; Paschmann, G.; Sckopke, N.; Hynds, R.J.

    1981-01-01

    Data from the Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory/Max-Planck-Institut fast plasma experiment on Isee 2 have been combined with data from the European Space Agency/Imperial College/Space Research Laboratory low-energy proton experiment on Isee 3 to obtain for the first time an ion velocity distribution function f(v) extending from solar wind energies (-1 keV) to 1.6 MeV during the postshock phase of an energetic storm particle (ESP) event. This study reveals that f(v) of the ESP population is roughly isotropic in the solar wind frame from solar wind thermal energies out to 1.6 MeV. Emerging smoothly out of the solar wind thermal distribution, the ESP f(v) initially falls with increasing energy as E/sup -2.4/ in the solar wind frame. Above about 40 keV no single power law exponent adequately describes the energy dependence of f(v) in the solar wind frame. Above approx.200 keV in both the spacecraft frame and the solar wind frame, f(v) can be described by an exponential in speed (f(v)proportionale/sup -v/v//sub o/) with v/sub o/ = 1.05 x 10 8 cm s -1 . The ESP event studied (August 27, 1978) was superposed upon a more energetic particle event which was predominantly field-aligned and which was probably of solar origin. Our observations suggest that the ESP population is accelerated directly out of the solar wind thermal population or its quiescent suprathermal tail by a stochastic process associated with the shock wave disturbance. The acceleration mechanism is sufficiently efficient that approx.1% of the solar wind population is accelerated to suprathermal energies. These suprathermal particles have an energy density of approx.290 eV cm -3

  6. Progress in the Study of Coastal Storm Deposits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, Haixian; Huang, Guangqing; Fu, Shuqing; Qian, Peng

    2018-05-01

    Numerous studies have been carried out to identify storm deposits and decipher storm-induced sedimentary processes in coastal and shallow-marine areas. This study aims to provide an in-depth review on the study of coastal storm deposits from the following five aspects. 1) The formation of storm deposits is a function of hydrodynamic and sedimentary processes under the constraints of local geological and ecological factors. Many questions remain to demonstrate the genetic links between storm-related processes and a variety of resulting deposits such as overwash deposits, underwater deposits and hummocky cross-stratification (HCS). Future research into the formation of storm deposits should combine flume experiments, field observations and numerical simulations, and make full use of sediment source tracing methods. 2) Recently there has been rapid growth in the number of studies utilizing sediment provenance analysis to investigate the source of storm deposits. The development of source tracing techniques, such as mineral composition, magnetic susceptibility, microfossil and geochemical property, has allowed for better understanding of the depositional processes and environmental changes associated with coastal storms. 3) The role of extreme storms in the sedimentation of low-lying coastal wetlands with diverse ecosystem services has also drawn a great deal of attention. Many investigations have attempted to quantify widespread land loss, vertical marsh sediment accumulation and wetland elevation change induced by major hurricanes. 4) Paleostorm reconstructions based on storm sedimentary proxies have shown many advantages over the instrumental records and historic documents as they allow for the reconstruction of storm activities on millennial or longer time scales. Storm deposits having been used to establish proxies mainly include beach ridges and shelly cheniers, coral reefs, estuary-deltaic storm sequences and overwash deposits. Particularly over the past few

  7. Storm Surge and Tide Interaction: A Complete Paradigm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horsburgh, K.

    2014-12-01

    Estimates show that in 2005, in the largest 136 coastal cities, there were 40 million people and 3,000 billion of assets exposed to 1 in 100 year coastal flood events. Mean sea level rise will increase this exposure to 150 million people and 35,000 billion of assets by 2070. Any further change in the statistics of flood frequency or severity would impact severely on economic and social systems. It is therefore crucial to understand the physical drivers of extreme storm surges, and to have confidence in datasets used for extreme sea level statistics. Much previous research has focussed on the process of tide-surge interaction, and it is now widely accepted that the physical basis of tide-surge interaction is that a phase shift of the tidal signal represents the effect of the surge on the tide. The second aspect of interaction is that shallow water momentum considerations imply that differing tidal states should modulate surge generation: wind stress should have greater surge-generating potential on lower tides. We present results from a storm surge model of the European shelf that demonstrate that tidal range does have an effect on the surges generated. The cycle-integrated effects of wind stress (i.e. the skew surge) are greater when tidal range is low. Our results contradict the absence of any such correlation in tide gauge records. This suggests that whilst the modulating effect of the tide on the skew surge (the time-independent difference between peak prediction and observations) is significant, the difference between individual storms is dominant. This implies that forecasting systems must predict salient detail of the most intense storms. A further implication is that flood forecasting models need to simulate tides with acceptable accuracy at all coastal locations. We extend our model analysis to show that the same modulation of storm surges (by tidal conditions) applies to tropical cyclones. We conduct simulations using a mature operational storm surge model

  8. A NOISE ADAPTIVE FUZZY EQUALIZATION METHOD FOR PROCESSING SOLAR EXTREME ULTRAVIOLET IMAGES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Druckmueller, M., E-mail: druckmuller@fme.vutbr.cz [Institute of Mathematics, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Brno University of Technology, Technicka 2, 616 69 Brno (Czech Republic)

    2013-08-15

    A new image enhancement tool ideally suited for the visualization of fine structures in extreme ultraviolet images of the corona is presented in this paper. The Noise Adaptive Fuzzy Equalization method is particularly suited for the exceptionally high dynamic range images from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly instrument on the Solar Dynamics Observatory. This method produces artifact-free images and gives significantly better results than methods based on convolution or Fourier transform which are often used for that purpose.

  9. Helio-Geomagnetic Activity and the Time Distribution of Myocardial Infractions during the Solar Cycle 23 (1997-2007). A Preliminary Study based on a Greek Hospital Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moussas, X.; Preka-Papadema, P.; Apostolou, Th.; Katsavrias, Ch.; Theodoropoulou, A.; Papadima, Th.

    2010-01-01

    We present the time distribution of a large number (7798) of Myocardial Infractions (MI) recorded at the General Hospital `St. Panteleimon' of the city of Nikea (in Piraeus, Greece), during time interval 1997-2007. This data set consisted of 5160 NON-STEACS (non-ST) and 2638 STEACS (ST) infractions are examined along with the monthly numbers of solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), solar wind parameters and the geomagnetic activity (Dst geomagnetic index and other). The mean monthly value of ST and non-ST events is 20 and 40 respectively. The maximum monthly value of non-ST events (72 and 73) are recorded in October 2002 and January 2003, as well as the one of ST events (32), while solar maximum, recorded in November 2002. This time interval is characterized by magnetic storms from August 2002 peaked in October 2002 and ended in February 2003. It is noticeable that August 2002 corresponds to the solar maximum of CMEs and strong solar flares monthly values. The maximum monthly value of ST events (40) is recorded in November 2005 almost simultaneously with a sudden absence of solar flares (October 2005). Increased values have been recorded during a period of extreme solar events of October-November 2003 and January-March 2005. It seems from this extensive statistical study that there is an association between the monthly values of MI and of CMEs; the non-ST MI shows a better association with CMEs. Moreover, the MI yearly distribution is in accordance with the time distribution of magnetic storms (number and duration). The non-ST distribution is also affected by intense magnetic storms.

  10. Full Solar Spectrum Light Driven Thermocatalysis with Extremely High Efficiency on Nanostructured Ce Ion Substituted OMS-2 Catalyst for VOCs Purification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hou, J.T.; Li, Y.Z.; Mao, M.Y.

    2015-01-01

    solar spectrum, visible-infrared, and infrared light, the Ce ion substituted OMS-2 catalyst exhibits extremely high catalytic activity and excellent durability for the oxidation of volatile organic pollutants such as benzene, toluene, and acetone. Based on the experimental evidence, we propose a novel...... in a considerable increase of temperature. By combining the efficient photothermal conversion and thermocatalytic activity of the Ce ion substituted OMS-2 catalyst, we carried out full solar spectrum, visible-infrared, and infrared light driven catalysis with extremely high efficiency. Under the irradiation of full...... mechanism of solar light driven thermocatalysis for the Ce ion substituted OMS-2 catalyst. The reason why the Ce ion substituted OMS-2 catalyst exhibits much higher catalytic activity than pure OMS-2 and CeO2/OMS-2 nano composite under the full solar spectrum irradiation is discussed....

  11. The effect of magnetic storm on the bottomside profile parameters B0 and

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adeniyi, J.O.; Radicella, S.M.

    2001-01-01

    We have used data from an equatorial station for the investigation of magnetic storm effects on B0 and B1. Three storm events, which occurred in January, April and October of a low solar activity year (1995), were used for the study. B0 is the parameter that is mostly affected and the effect is concentrated on the daytime period (0700-1700LT). (author)

  12. Onset of frequent dust storms in northern China at ~AD 1100.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Yuxin; Zhao, Cheng; Song, Mu; Liu, Weiguo; Chen, Fahu; Zhang, Dian; Liu, Zhonghui

    2015-11-26

    Dust storms in northern China strongly affect the living and health of people there and the dusts could travel a full circle of the globe in a short time. Historically, more frequent dust storms occurred during cool periods, particularly the Little Ice Age (LIA), generally attributed to the strengthened Siberian High. However, limited by chronological uncertainties in proxy records, this mechanism may not fully reveal the causes of dust storm frequency changes. Here we present a late Holocene dust record from the Qaidam Basin, where hydrological changes were previously reconstructed, and examine dust records from northern China, including the ones from historical documents. The records, being broadly consistent, indicate the onset of frequent dust storms at ~AD 1100. Further, peaked dust storm events occurred at episodes of high total solar irradiance or warm-dry conditions in source regions, superimposed on the high background of frequent dust storms within the cool LIA period. We thus suggest that besides strong wind activities, the centennial-scale dust storm events over the last 1000 years appear to be linked to the increased availability of dust source. With the anticipated global warming and deteriorating vegetation coverage, frequent occurrence of dust storms in northern China would be expected to persist.

  13. Towards a unified study of extreme events using universality concepts and transdisciplinary analysis methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balasis, George; Donner, Reik V.; Donges, Jonathan F.; Radebach, Alexander; Eftaxias, Konstantinos; Kurths, Jürgen

    2013-04-01

    The dynamics of many complex systems is characterized by the same universal principles. In particular, systems which are otherwise quite different in nature show striking similarities in their behavior near tipping points (bifurcations, phase transitions, sudden regime shifts) and associated extreme events. Such critical phenomena are frequently found in diverse fields such as climate, seismology, or financial markets. Notably, the observed similarities include a high degree of organization, persistent behavior, and accelerated energy release, which are common to (among others) phenomena related to geomagnetic variability of the terrestrial magnetosphere (intense magnetic storms), seismic activity (electromagnetic emissions prior to earthquakes), solar-terrestrial physics (solar flares), neurophysiology (epileptic seizures), and socioeconomic systems (stock market crashes). It is an open question whether the spatial and temporal complexity associated with extreme events arises from the system's structural organization (geometry) or from the chaotic behavior inherent to the nonlinear equations governing the dynamics of these phenomena. On the one hand, the presence of scaling laws associated with earthquakes and geomagnetic disturbances suggests understanding these events as generalized phase transitions similar to nucleation and critical phenomena in thermal and magnetic systems. On the other hand, because of the structural organization of the systems (e.g., as complex networks) the associated spatial geometry and/or topology of interactions plays a fundamental role in the emergence of extreme events. Here, a few aspects of the interplay between geometry and dynamics (critical phase transitions) that could result in the emergence of extreme events, which is an open problem, will be discussed.

  14. A Proton-Cyclotron Wave Storm Generated by Unstable Proton Distribution Functions in the Solar Wind

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wicks, R. T.; Alexander, R. L.; Stevens, M.; Wilson, L. B., III; Moya, P. S.; Vinas, A.; Jian, L. K.; Roberts, D. A.; O’Modhrain, S.; Gilbert, J. A.; hide

    2016-01-01

    We use audification of 0.092 seconds cadence magnetometer data from the Wind spacecraft to identify waves with amplitudes greater than 0.1 nanoteslas near the ion gyrofrequency (approximately 0.1 hertz) with duration longer than 1 hour during 2008. We present one of the most common types of event for a case study and find it to be a proton-cyclotron wave storm, coinciding with highly radial magnetic field and a suprathermal proton beam close in density to the core distribution itself. Using linear Vlasov analysis, we conclude that the long-duration, large-amplitude waves are generated by the instability of the proton distribution function. The origin of the beam is unknown, but the radial field period is found in the trailing edge of a fast solar wind stream and resembles other events thought to be caused by magnetic field footpoint motion or interchange reconnection between coronal holes and closed field lines in the corona.

  15. The Analysis of the Properties of Super Solar Proton Events and the Associated Phenomena

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, L. B.; Le, G. M.; Lu, Y. P.; Chen, M. H.; Li, P.; Yin, Z. Q.

    2014-05-01

    The solar flare, the propagation speed of shock driven by coronal mass ejection (CME) from the sun to the Earth, the source longitudes and Carrington longitudes, and the geomagnetic storms associated with each super solar proton event with the peak flux equal to or exceeding 10000 pfu have been investigated. The analysis results show that the source longitudes of super solar proton events ranged from E30° to W75°. The Carrington longitudes of source regions of super solar proton events distributed in the two longitude bands, 130°˜220° and 260°˜320°, respectively. All super solar proton events were accompanied by major solar flares and fast CMEs. The averaged speeds of shocks propagated from the sun to the Earth were greater than 1200 km/s. Eight super solar proton events were followed by major geomagnetic storms (Dst≤-100 nT). One super solar proton event was followed by a geomagnetic storm with Dst=-96 nT.

  16. EUV and Magnetic Activities Associated with Type-I Solar Radio Bursts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, C. Y.; Chen, Y.; Wang, B.; Ruan, G. P.; Feng, S. W.; Du, G. H.; Kong, X. L.

    2017-06-01

    Type-I bursts ( i.e. noise storms) are the earliest-known type of solar radio emission at the meter wavelength. They are believed to be excited by non-thermal energetic electrons accelerated in the corona. The underlying dynamic process and exact emission mechanism still remain unresolved. Here, with a combined analysis of extreme ultraviolet (EUV), radio and photospheric magnetic field data of unprecedented quality recorded during a type-I storm on 30 July 2011, we identify a good correlation between the radio bursts and the co-spatial EUV and magnetic activities. The EUV activities manifest themselves as three major brightening stripes above a region adjacent to a compact sunspot, while the magnetic field there presents multiple moving magnetic features (MMFs) with persistent coalescence or cancelation and a morphologically similar three-part distribution. We find that the type-I intensities are correlated with those of the EUV emissions at various wavelengths with a correlation coefficient of 0.7 - 0.8. In addition, in the region between the brightening EUV stripes and the radio sources there appear consistent dynamic motions with a series of bi-directional flows, suggesting ongoing small-scale reconnection there. Mainly based on the induced connection between the magnetic motion at the photosphere and the EUV and radio activities in the corona, we suggest that the observed type-I noise storms and the EUV brightening activities are the consequence of small-scale magnetic reconnection driven by MMFs. This is in support of the original proposal made by Bentley et al. ( Solar Phys. 193, 227, 2000).

  17. Time series analysis of diverse extreme phenomena: universal features

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eftaxias, K.; Balasis, G.

    2012-04-01

    The field of study of complex systems holds that the dynamics of complex systems are founded on universal principles that may used to describe a great variety of scientific and technological approaches of different types of natural, artificial, and social systems. We suggest that earthquake, epileptic seizures, solar flares, and magnetic storms dynamics can be analyzed within similar mathematical frameworks. A central property of aforementioned extreme events generation is the occurrence of coherent large-scale collective behavior with very rich structure, resulting from repeated nonlinear interactions among the corresponding constituents. Consequently, we apply the Tsallis nonextensive statistical mechanics as it proves an appropriate framework in order to investigate universal principles of their generation. First, we examine the data in terms of Tsallis entropy aiming to discover common "pathological" symptoms of transition to a significant shock. By monitoring the temporal evolution of the degree of organization in time series we observe similar distinctive features revealing significant reduction of complexity during their emergence. Second, a model for earthquake dynamics coming from a nonextensive Tsallis formalism, starting from first principles, has been recently introduced. This approach leads to an energy distribution function (Gutenberg-Richter type law) for the magnitude distribution of earthquakes, providing an excellent fit to seismicities generated in various large geographic areas usually identified as seismic regions. We show that this function is able to describe the energy distribution (with similar non-extensive q-parameter) of solar flares, magnetic storms, epileptic and earthquake shocks. The above mentioned evidence of a universal statistical behavior suggests the possibility of a common approach for studying space weather, earthquakes and epileptic seizures.

  18. Solar-terrestrial disturbances of June-September 1982, 4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohshio, Mitsuo; Koizumi, Tokuji; Hiidome, Shigeharu; Oda, Tadashi; Echizenya, Yoshimatsu; Kamishikiryo, Syogo; Maeno, Hideo

    1986-01-01

    As a distinctive feature of the ionosphere observed in 1982, it may be said that ionospheric disturbances caused by outstanding solar flares occurred frequently, and especially that the tendency was remarkable during the period from June to September 1982. First, the feature found was frequent sudden increases of f min (SIFs) caused by solar flares observed during the period from June 4 to July 19. Second, it contains ionospheric F region storms which occurred during the period from July 13 to 16, associated with a giant geomagnetic storm and during the periods from September 5 to 8 and from September 21 to 28, associated with usual geomagnetic storms. Ionospheric F region storms associated with these geomagnetic storms assumed various aspects due to the magnitude of geomagnetic storms, the local time of their occurrence, and their passage. Variations in these aspects were extensively investigated by utilizing data obtained not only at the five ionospheric sounding stations in Japan, but also in Eastern Asia, Europe, and so on. The four ionospheric F region storms investigated had individual characteristics due to the difference among local times of appearance in main phase of geomagnetic storms related to the ionospheric F region storms. The scale of the ionospheric F region storm associated with a giant geomagnetic storm on July 14, the decrease of which in horizontal component of geomagnetic field amounted to 630 nT at its maximum stage at Kakioka, was smaller than the scale of the ionospheric F region storm associated with a giant geomagnetic storm on August 4 ∼ 5, 1972 (359 nT there). (author)

  19. Investigation of the relationship between hurricane waves and extreme runup

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, D. M.; Stockdon, H. F.

    2006-12-01

    In addition to storm surge, the elevation of wave-induced runup plays a significant role in forcing geomorphic change during extreme storms. Empirical formulations for extreme runup, defined as the 2% exceedence level, are dependent on some measure of significant offshore wave height. Accurate prediction of extreme runup, particularly during hurricanes when wave heights are large, depends on selecting the most appropriate measure of wave height that provides energy to the nearshore system. Using measurements from deep-water wave buoys results in an overprediction of runup elevation. Under storm forcing these large waves dissipate across the shelf through friction, whitecapping and depth-limited breaking before reaching the beach and forcing swash processes. The use of a local, shallow water wave height has been shown to provide a more accurate estimate of extreme runup elevation (Stockdon, et. al. 2006); however, a specific definition of this local wave height has yet to be defined. Using observations of nearshore waves from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Field Research Facility (FRF) in Duck, NC during Hurricane Isabel, the most relevant measure of wave height for use in empirical runup parameterizations was examined. Spatial and temporal variability of the hurricane wave field, which made landfall on September 18, 2003, were modeled using SWAN. Comparisons with wave data from FRF gages and deep-water buoys operated by NOAA's National Data Buoy Center were used for model calibration. Various measures of local wave height (breaking, dissipation-based, etc.) were extracted from the model domain and used as input to the runup parameterizations. Video based observations of runup collected at the FRF during the storm were used to ground truth modeled values. Assessment of the most appropriate measure of wave height can be extended over a large area through comparisons to observations of storm- induced geomorphic change.

  20. Storm warning : gambling with the climate of our planet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dotto, L.

    1999-06-01

    This book gives a clear explanation of climate phenomena such as El Nino and the greenhouse effect, and provides a background and insight into the climate conferences held in recent years in Rio and Kyoto. It documents the extreme weather events of recent years, including the ice storm of 1998, the 1997 Manitoba floods, and the 1998 Atlantic hurricane season. Such events should prompt people to give serious thought to the implications of global warming and consider the strong evidence that our climate is changing due to human interference. The book warns that global warming will increase the frequency and severity of extreme weather events such as floods, droughts, and storm. Climate change is expected to affect agriculture, water supplies, food production, and the spread of human diseases. The book provides thoughtful answers to the major questions about global warming, detailed descriptions of the multiple effects on human health and safety, and discusses the steps that need to be taken to avoid and adapt to the oncoming storm. In answer to the non-believers, the author points out the futility of demanding more and more proof. In her view, we have all the proof needed, it is time to concentrate not on proof but on risk. refs.

  1. Solar-terrestrial physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patel, V.L.

    1977-01-01

    The Glossary is designed to be a technical dictionary that will provide solar workers of various specialties, students, other astronomers and theoreticians with concise information on the nature and the properties of phenomena of solar and solar-terrestrial physics. Each term, or group of related terms, is given a concise phenomenological and quantitative description, including the relationship to other phenomena and an interpretation in terms of physical processes. The references are intended to lead the non-specialist reader into the literature. This section deals with: geomagnetic field; coordinate systems; geomagnetic indices; Dst index; auroral electrojet index AE; daily, 27-day and semi-annual variations of geomagnetic field; micropulsation; geomagnetic storms; storm sudden commencement (SSC) or sudden commencement (SC); initial phase; ring current; sudden impulses; ionosphere; D region; polar cap absorption; sudden ionospheric disturbance; E region; sporadic E; equatorial electrojet; solar flare effect; F 1 and F 2 regions; spread F; travelling ionospheric disturbances; magnetosphere; magnetospheric coordinate systems; plasmasphere; magnetosheath; magnetospheric tail; substorm; radiation belts or Van Allen belts; whistlers; VLF emissions; aurora; auroral forms; auroral oval and auroral zones; auroral intensity; stable auroral red arcs; pulsing aurora; polar glow aurora; and airglow. (B.R.H.)

  2. [Electrical storm].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnay, C; Taieb, J; Morice, R

    2007-11-01

    Electrical storm is defined as repeated occurrence of severe ventricular arrhythmias requiring multiple cardioversions, two or more or three or more following different studies. The clinical aspect can sometimes be made of multiple, self aggravating, life threatening accesses. There are three main clinical circumstances of occurrence: in patients equipped with intracardiac defibrillators, during the acute phase of myocardial infarction and in Brugada syndrome. 10 to 15% of patients with cardiac defibrillators are subject to electrical storms in a period of two years. The causative arrhythmia is most often ventricular tachycardia than ventricular fibrillation, especially in secondary prevention and if the initial arrhythmias justifying the device was a ventricular tachycardia. Precipitaing factors are present in one third of cases, mainly acute heart failure, ionic disorders and arrhythmogenic drugs. Predictive factors are age, left ventricular ejection fractionelectrical shock in 50% of cases, antitachycardi stimulation in 30% and in 20% by association of the two. Treatment, after elimination of inappropriate shocks, is mainly based on beta-blockers and amiodarone, class I antiarrhythmics, lidocaïne or bretylium in some cases, and sedation pushed to general anesthesia in some cases. Radio-frequency ablation and even heart transplantation have been proposed in extreme cases. Quinidine has been proved efficient in cases of Brugada syndrome.

  3. Association of time of occurrence of electrical heart storms with environmental physical activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoupel, Eliiyahu; Kusniec, Jairo; Golovchiner, Gregory; Abramson, Evgeny; Kadmon, Udi; Strasberg, Boris

    2014-08-01

    Many publications in recent decades have reported a temporal link between medical events and environmental physical activity. The aim of this study was to analyze the time of occurrence of electrical heart storms against levels of cosmological parameters. The sample included 82 patients (71 male) with ischemic cardiomyopathy treated with an implantable cardioverter defibrillator at a tertiary medical center in 1999-2012 (5,114 days). The time of occurrence of all electrical heart storms, defined as three or more events of ventricular tachycardia or ventricular fibrillation daily, was recorded from the defibrillator devices. Findings were analyzed against data on solar, geomagnetic, and cosmic ray (neutron) activity for the same time period obtained from space institutions in the United States and Russia. Electrical storms occurred in all months of the year, with a slight decrease in July, August, and September. Most events took place on days with lower-than-average levels of solar and geomagnetic activity and higher-than-average levels of cosmic ray (neutron) activity. There was a significant difference in mean daily cosmic ray activity between the whole observation period and the days of electrical storm activity (P = 0.0001). These data extend earlier findings on the association of the timing of cardiac events and space weather parameters to the most dangerous form of cardiac arrhythmia-electric storms. Further studies are needed to delineate the pathogenetic mechanism underlying this association. ©2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  4. NEW SOLAR EXTREME-ULTRAVIOLET IRRADIANCE OBSERVATIONS DURING FLARES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woods, Thomas N.; Hock, Rachel; Eparvier, Frank; Jones, Andrew R.; Chamberlin, Phillip C.; Klimchuk, James A.; Didkovsky, Leonid; Judge, Darrell; Mariska, John; Warren, Harry; Schrijver, Carolus J.; Webb, David F.; Bailey, Scott; Tobiska, W. Kent

    2011-01-01

    New solar extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance observations from the NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) EUV Variability Experiment provide full coverage in the EUV range from 0.1 to 106 nm and continuously at a cadence of 10 s for spectra at 0.1 nm resolution and even faster, 0.25 s, for six EUV bands. These observations can be decomposed into four distinct characteristics during flares. First, the emissions that dominate during the flare's impulsive phase are the transition region emissions, such as the He II 30.4 nm. Second, the hot coronal emissions above 5 MK dominate during the gradual phase and are highly correlated with the GOES X-ray. A third flare characteristic in the EUV is coronal dimming, seen best in the cool corona, such as the Fe IX 17.1 nm. As the post-flare loops reconnect and cool, many of the EUV coronal emissions peak a few minutes after the GOES X-ray peak. One interesting variation of the post-eruptive loop reconnection is that warm coronal emissions (e.g., Fe XVI 33.5 nm) sometimes exhibit a second large peak separated from the primary flare event by many minutes to hours, with EUV emission originating not from the original flare site and its immediate vicinity, but rather from a volume of higher loops. We refer to this second peak as the EUV late phase. The characterization of many flares during the SDO mission is provided, including quantification of the spectral irradiance from the EUV late phase that cannot be inferred from GOES X-ray diagnostics.

  5. Correlations between Geomagnetic Disturbances and Field-Aligned Currents during the 22-29 July 2004 Storm Time Interval

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hood, R.; Woodroffe, J. R.; Morley, S.; Aruliah, A. L.

    2017-12-01

    Using the CHAMP fluxgate magnetometer to calculate field-aligned current (FAC) densities and magnetic latitudes, with SuperMAG ground magnetometers analogously providing ground geomagnetic disturbances (GMD) magnetic perturbations and latitudes, we probe FAC locations and strengths as predictors of GMD locations and strengths. We also study the relationships between solar wind drivers and global magnetospheric activity, and both FACs and GMDs using IMF Bz and the Sym-H index. We present an event study of the 22-29 July 2004 storm time interval, which had particularly large GMDs given its storm intensity. We find no correlation between FAC and GMD magnitudes, perhaps due to CHAMP orbit limitations or ground magnetometer coverage. There is, however, a correlation between IMF Bz and nightside GMD magnitudes, supportive of their generation via tail reconnection. IMF Bz is also correlated with dayside FAC and GMD magnetic latitudes, indicating solar wind as an initial driver. The ring current influence increases during the final storm, with improved correlations between the Sym-H index and both FAC magnetic latitudes and GMD magnitudes. Sym-H index correlations may only be valid for higher intensity storms; a statistical analysis of many storms is needed to verify this.

  6. Modeling the entry and trapping of solar energetic particles in the magnetosphere during the November 24-25, 2001 storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard, R. L.; El-Alaoui, M.; Ashour-Abdalla, M.; Walker, R. J.

    2009-04-01

    We have modeled the entry of solar energetic particles (SEPs) into the magnetosphere during the November 24-25, 2001 magnetic storm and the trapping of particles in the inner magnetosphere. The study used the technique of following many test particles, protons with energies greater than about 100 keV, in the electric and magnetic fields from a global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation of the magnetosphere during this storm. SEP protons formed a quasi-trapped and trapped population near and within geosynchronous orbit. Preliminary data comparisons show that the simulation does a reasonably good job of predicting the differential flux measured by geosynchronous spacecraft. Particle trapping took place mainly as a result of particles becoming non-adiabatic and crossing onto closed field lines. Particle flux in the inner magnetosphere increased dramatically as an interplanetary shock impacted and compressed the magnetosphere near 0600 UT, but long term trapping (hours) did not become widespread until about an hour later, during a further compression of the magnetosphere. Trapped and quasi-trapped particles were lost during the simulation by motion through the magnetopause and by precipitation, primarily the former. This caused the particle population near and within geosynchronous orbit to gradually decrease later on during the latter part of the interval.

  7. Dynamic auroral storms on Saturn as observed by the Hubble Space Telescope.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nichols, J D; Badman, S V; Baines, K H; Brown, R H; Bunce, E J; Clarke, J T; Cowley, S W H; Crary, F J; Dougherty, M K; Gérard, J-C; Grocott, A; Grodent, D; Kurth, W S; Melin, H; Mitchell, D G; Pryor, W R; Stallard, T S

    2014-05-28

    We present observations of significant dynamics within two UV auroral storms observed on Saturn using the Hubble Space Telescope in April/May 2013. Specifically, we discuss bursts of auroral emission observed at the poleward boundary of a solar wind-induced auroral storm, propagating at ∼330% rigid corotation from near ∼01 h LT toward ∼08 h LT. We suggest that these are indicative of ongoing, bursty reconnection of lobe flux in the magnetotail, providing strong evidence that Saturn's auroral storms are caused by large-scale flux closure. We also discuss the later evolution of a similar storm and show that the emission maps to the trailing region of an energetic neutral atom enhancement. We thus identify the auroral form with the upward field-aligned continuity currents flowing into the associated partial ring current.

  8. Solar-terrestrial disturbances of June-September 1982, 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ogawa, Tadahiko

    1985-01-01

    Geomagnetic disturbances associated with the solar-terrestrial events during the period June-September 1982 are investigated using data of both solar phenomena and the satellite GMS-2 which measured solar protons and alpha particles at a geostationary orbit. It is pointed out (1) that the geomagnetic disturbances in June were weak in spite of successive, relatively large flares, (2) that the biggest geomagnetic storm during July 13-14 induced by the large flare (3B/X7.1) on July 12 is characterized by a geographically localized (around Japan), short-lived (1.5 hours) deep depression of geomagnetic H-component (ΔHsub(max) = -630 nT) appeared around local morning hours, (3) that two relatively big geomagnetic storms due to long-lasting, medium-scale flares occurred in September, and (4) that there existed storms caused not by flares but presumably by coronal hole and/or filament disappearance. According to the examination of world-wide magnetograms, it is tentatively suggested that the deep depression of H-component during the July 13-14 storm was caused by an abnormal expansion of the substorm-associated current system in the auroral zone to the Far East. All of the proton events due to the flares in the eastern solar hemisphere were of slow-onset type. Only one example of fast-onset type was obtained for the west limb flare on July 22. The present analyses are compared with the big solar-terrestrial events which happened in February 1958 and August 1972. (author)

  9. Investigating and Modeling Ecosystem Response to an Experimental and a Natural Ice Storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fakhraei, H.; Driscoll, C. T.; Rustad, L.; Campbell, J. L.; Groffman, P.; Fahey, T.; Likens, G.; Swaminathan, R.

    2017-12-01

    Our understanding of ecosystem response to the extreme events is generally limited to rare observations from the natural historical events. However, investigating extreme events under controlled conditions can improve our understanding of these natural phenomena. A novel field experiment was conducted in a northern hardwood forest at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire in the northeastern United States to quantify the influence of ice storms on the ecological processes. During subfreezing conditions in the winters of 2016 and 2017, water from a nearby stream was pumped and sprayed on the canopy of eight experimental plots to accrete ice to a targeted thickness on the canopy. The experiment was conducted at three levels of icing thickness (0.25, 0.5, 0.75 in.) in 2016 comparable to the naturally occurring 1998 ice storm and a second 0.5 in. treatment 2017 which were compared with reference plots. The most notable response of the icing treatments was a marked increase in fine and course litter fall which increased exponentially with increases in the icing thickness. Post-treatment openings in the canopy caused short-term increases in soil temperature in the ice-treatment plots compared to the reference plots. No response from the ice storm treatments were detected for soil moisture, net N mineralization, net nitrification, or denitrification after both natural and experimental ice storm. In contrast to the marked increase in the stream water nitrate after the natural occurring 1998 ice storm, we have not observed any significant change in soil solution N concentrations in the experimental ice storm treatments. Inconsistency in the response between the natural and experimental ice storm is likely due to differences in geophysical characteristics of the study sites including slope and lateral uptake of nutrient by the trees outside the experimental plots. In order to evaluate the long-term impacts of ice storms on northern hardwood forests, we used

  10. ZnO-nanorod arrays for solar cells with extremely thin sulfidic absorber

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Belaidi, A.; Dittrich, Th.; Kieven, D.; Tornow, J.; Schwarzburg, K.; Kunst, M.; Allsop, N.; Lux-Steiner, M.-Ch. [Hahn-Meitner-Institute, Glienicker Str. 100, D-14109 Berlin (Germany); Gavrilov, S. [Moscow Institute of Electronic Technology, 124 498 Moscow (Russian Federation)

    2009-06-15

    Solar cells with an extremely thin sulfidic absorber have been prepared by spray ion layer gas reaction (ILGAR) of In{sub 2}S{sub 3} on ZnO-nanorod arrays. As transparent hole conductor, CuSCN was deposited on the coated ZnO nanorods by impregnation. Surface photovoltage spectroscopy was applied to characterize states contributing to excess carrier generation and charge separation. The charge-selective contact is formed at the In{sub 2}S{sub 3}/CuSCN interface region the states of which also contribute significantly to the photocurrent. The influence of annealing temperature and annealing time of the In{sub 2}S{sub 3}/CuSCN contact region on the open-circuit potential (V{sub OC}), short-circuit current (I{sub SC}) and fill factor (FF) was studied in detail. For solar cells based on ZnO-nanorod arrays (rod length 1.5 {mu}m), efficiency of 2.8% is obtained at AM1.5. (author)

  11. The impact of the gulf war on the Arabian environment—I. Particulate pollution and reduction of solar irradiance

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Shobokshy, Mohammad S.; Al-Saedi, Yaseen G.

    This paper investigates some of the air pollution problems which have been created as a result of the Gulf war in early 1991. Temporary periods of increased dust storm activity have been observed in Saudi Arabia. This is presumably due to disturbance of the desert surface by the extremely large number of tanks and other war machines before and during the war. The concentrations of inhalable dust particles (oil fields in Kuwait. The direct normal solar insolation were also measured at the photovoltaic solar power plant in Riyadh during these days and significant reductions were observed due to the effective absorption of solar radiation by soot particles. The generated power from the plant has been reduced during days with a polluted atmosphere by about 50-80% of the expected value for such days, if the atmosphere were dry and clear.

  12. Long-term rise in geomagnetic activity - A close connection between quiet days and storms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vennerstrøm, Susanne

    2000-01-01

    Geomagnetic quiet days and magnetic storms are naturally believed to be due to very different solar wind conditions. In this study we however demonstrate that the long-term variation of geomagnetic quiet and disturbed days are surprisingly similar. By the use of daily averages of the geomagnetic.......7. The results indicate that the longterm,increase is due to an increase in the background solar wind parameters, rather than in the number of solar wind disturbances....

  13. A socioeconomic assessment of climate change-enhanced coastal storm hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baron, H. M.; Ruggiero, P.; Harris, E.

    2010-12-01

    Every winter, coastal communities in the U.S. Pacific Northwest are at risk to coastal change hazards caused by extreme storm events. These storms have the potential to erode large portions of the primary foredune that may be a community’s only barrier from the ocean. Furthermore, the frequency and magnitude of significant erosion events appears to be increasing, likely due to climate-related processes such as sea level rise and increases in storm wave heights. To reduce risks posed by winter storms, it is not only important to determine the impending physical impacts but it is also necessary to explore the vulnerability of the social-ecological system in the context of these hazards. Here we assess the exposure to both annually occurring and extreme storm events at various planning timelines using a methodology that incorporates the effect of a variable and changing climate on future total water levels. To do this, we have developed a suite of climate change scenarios involving a range of projections for the wave climate, global sea level rise, and the occurrence of El Niño events through 2100. Simple geometric models are then used to conservatively determine the extent of erosion that may occur for a given combination of these climatic factors. We integrate the physical hazards with socioeconomic data using a geographic information system (GIS) in order to quantify societal vulnerability, characterized by the exposure and sensitivity of a community, which is based on the distribution of people, property, and resources. Here we focus on a 14 km stretch of dune-backed coast in northwest Oregon, from Cascade Head to Cape Kiwanda—the location of two communities that, historically, have experienced problematic storm-induced coastal change, Pacific City and Neskowin. Although both of these communities have similar exposure to coastal change hazards at the present, Neskowin is more than twice as sensitive to erosion because almost all of its residents and community

  14. Geomagnetic storms in the Antarctic F-region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wrenn, G.L.; Rodger, A.S.; Rishbeth, H.

    1987-01-01

    New analysis procedures are used to show that the main phase mid-latitude storm effects conform to consistent patterns in local time when suitable selection rules are applied, with averaging over several years. Changes in the maximum plasma frequency, foF2, with respect to estimated quiet-time values, are analysed in terms of asub(p)(t), a new geomagnetic index derived to take account of integrated disturbance. Reduction of foF2 is greatest during the early morning hours, in summer, at higher geomagnetic latitudes, near solar minimum and through the more active periods. The various dependencies are quantitatively determined for the first time by creating an average 'steady state' disturbance, rather than following specific storm events. This approach permits tests of competing theories using available modelling programs. (author)

  15. Observations and global numerical modelling of the St. Patrick's Day 2015 geomagnetic storm event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foerster, M.; Prokhorov, B. E.; Doornbos, E.; Astafieva, E.; Zakharenkova, I.

    2017-12-01

    With a sudden storm commencement (SSC) at 04:45 UT on St. Patrick's day 2015 started the most severe geomagnetic storm in solar cycle 24. It appeared as a two-stage geomagnetic storm with a minimum SYM-H value of -233 nT. In the response to the storm commencement in the first activation, a short-term positive effect in the ionospheric vertical electron content (VTEC) occurred at low- and mid-latitudes on the dayside. The second phase commencing around 12:30 UT lasted longer and caused significant and complex storm-time changes around the globe with hemispherical different ionospheric storm reactions in different longitudinal ranges. Swarm-C observations of the neutral mass density variation along the orbital path as well as Langmuir probe plasma and magnetometer measurements of all three Swarm satellites and global TEC records are used for physical interpretations and modelling of the positive/negative storm scenario. These observations pose a challenge for the global numerical modelling of thermosphere-ionosphere storm processes as the storm, which occurred around spring equinox, obviously signify the existence of other impact factors than seasonal dependence for hemispheric asymmetries to occur. Numerical simulation trials using the Potsdam version of the Upper Atmosphere Model (UAM-P) are presented to explain these peculiar M-I-T storm processes.

  16. Coastal emergency managers' preferences for storm surge forecast communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrow, Betty Hearn; Lazo, Jeffrey K

    2014-01-01

    Storm surge, the most deadly hazard associated with tropical and extratropical cyclones, is the basis for most evacuation decisions by authorities. One factor believed to be associated with evacuation noncompliance is a lack of understanding of storm surge. To address this problem, federal agencies responsible for cyclone forecasts are seeking more effective ways of communicating storm surge threat. To inform this process, they are engaging various partners in the forecast and warning process.This project focuses on emergency managers. Fifty-three emergency managers (EMs) from the Gulf and lower Atlantic coasts were surveyed to elicit their experience with, sources of, and preferences for storm surge information. The emergency managers-who are well seasoned in hurricane response and generally rate the surge risk in their coastal areas above average or extremely high-listed storm surge as their major concern with respect to hurricanes. They reported a general lack of public awareness about surge. Overall they support new ways to convey the potential danger to the public, including the issuance of separate storm surge watches and warnings, and the expression of surge heights using feet above ground level. These EMs would like more maps, graphics, and visual materials for use in communicating with the public. An important concern is the timing of surge forecasts-whether they receive them early enough to be useful in their evacuation decisions.

  17. DISSOLUÇÃO DE FRONTEIRAS E A EXPERIÊNCIA TRANSICIONAL EM SOLAR STORMS, DE LINDA HOGAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caroline Garcia de Souza

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available O presente trabalho analisa a experiência transicional no romance Solar Storms, publicado pela escritora nativo-americana Linda Hogan (Chickasaw em 1995. A obra narra a jornada de Angela, uma mestiça indígena órfã que retorna à terra de seus antepassados na tentativa de desvendar sua história e de religar os fragmentos de um passado parcialmente obscuro. Ao longo da narrativa, percebe-se um processo de gradual desconstrução de categorias – temporais, físicas, espaciais – e de superação das relações dicotômicas que opõem, por exemplo, indivíduo e comunidade, interioridade e exterioridade, o mundo humano e o não humano. Esse movimento se dá na direção de uma dissolução das falsas fronteiras e no sentido de uma integração total.

  18. Solar-Terrestrial Interactions

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kahler, Stephen W

    2008-01-01

    ...) particle events, the solar wind, and geomagnetic storms. The investigators, working at Hanscom AFB, MA, have used many different kinds of space- and ground-based observations and have collaborated with workers at various institutions in this work...

  19. Ring Current Response to Different Storm Drivers. Van Allen Probes and Cluster Observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bingham, S.; Mouikis, C.; Kistler, L. M.; Spence, H. E.; Gkioulidou, M.; Claudepierre, S. G.; Farrugia, C. J.

    2015-12-01

    The ring current responds differently to the different solar and interplanetary storm drivers such as coronal mass injections, (CME's), co-rotating interaction regions (CIR's), high-speed streamers and other structures. The resulting changes in the ring current particle pressure change the global magnetic field, which affects the transport of the radiation belts. In order to determine the field changes during a storm it is necessary to understand the transport, sources and losses of the particles that contribute to the ring current. The source population of the storm time ring current is the night side plasma sheet. However, it is not clear how these convecting particles affect the storm time ring current pressure development. We use Van Allen Probes and Cluster observations together with the Volland-Stern and dipole magnetic field models to determine the contribution in the ring current pressure of the plasma sheet particles convecting from the night side that are on open drift paths, during the storm evolution. We compare storms that are related to different interplanetary drivers, CME and CIR, as observed at different local times.

  20. Winter storm intensity, hazards, and property losses in the New York tristate area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimkus, Cari E; Ting, Mingfang; Booth, James F; Adamo, Susana B; Madajewicz, Malgosia; Kushnir, Yochanan; Rieder, Harald E

    2017-07-01

    Winter storms pose numerous hazards to the Northeast United States, including rain, snow, strong wind, and flooding. These hazards can cause millions of dollars in damages from one storm alone. This study investigates meteorological intensity and impacts of winter storms from 2001 to 2014 on coastal counties in Connecticut, New Jersey, and New York and underscores the consequences of winter storms. The study selected 70 winter storms on the basis of station observations of surface wind strength, heavy precipitation, high storm tide, and snow extremes. Storm rankings differed between measures, suggesting that intensity is not easily defined with a single metric. Several storms fell into two or more categories (multiple-category storms). Following storm selection, property damages were examined to determine which types lead to high losses. The analysis of hazards (or events) and associated damages using the Storm Events Database of the National Centers for Environmental Information indicates that multiple-category storms were responsible for a greater portion of the damage. Flooding was responsible for the highest losses, but no discernible connection exists between the number of storms that afflict a county and the damage it faces. These results imply that losses may rely more on the incidence of specific hazards, infrastructure types, and property values, which vary throughout the region. © 2017 The Authors. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences published by Wiley Periodicals Inc. on behalf of The New York Academy of Sciences.

  1. Flood Losses Associated with Winter Storms in the U.S. Northeast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ting, M.; Shimkus, C.

    2015-12-01

    Winter storms pose a number of hazards to coastal communities in the U.S. Northeast including heavy rain, snow, strong wind, cold temperatures, and flooding. These hazards can cause millions in property damages from one storm alone. This study addresses the impacts of winter storms from 2001 - 2012 on coastal counties in the U.S. Northeast and underscores the significant economic consequences extreme winter storms have on property. The analysis on the types of hazards (floods, strong wind, snow, etc.) and associated damage from the National Climatic Data Center Storm Events Database indicates that floods were responsible for the highest damages. This finding suggests that winter storm vulnerability could grow in the future as precipitation intensity increases and sea level rise exacerbate flood losses. Flood loss maps are constructed based on damage amount, which can be compared to the flood exposure maps constructed by the NOAA Office of Coastal Management. Interesting agreements and discrepancies exist between the two methods, which warrant further examination. Furthermore, flood losses often came from storms characterized as heavy precipitation storms and strong surge storms, and sometimes both, illustrating the compounding effect of flood risks in the region. While New Jersey counties experienced the most damage per unit area, there is no discernable connection between population density and damage amount, which suggests that societal impacts may rely less on population characteristics and more on infrastructure types and property values, which vary throughout the region.

  2. Recent Extreme Marine Events at Southern Coast of Black Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozyurt Tarakcioglu, Gulizar; Cevdet Yalciner, Ahmet; Kirezci, Cagil; Baykal, Cuneyt; Gokhan Guler, Hasan; Erol, Onur; Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey

    2015-04-01

    The utilization at the coastal areas of Black Sea basin has increased in the recent years with the projects such as large commercial ports, international transportation hubs, gas and petrol pipelines, touristic and recreational infrastructures both along surrounding shoreline. Although Black Sea is a closed basin, extreme storms and storm surges have also been observed with an increasing frequency in the recent years. Among those events, February 1999, March 2013 and September 2014 storms impacted Southern coast of Black sea have clearly shown that the increasing economic value at the coastal areas caused the increasing cost of damages and loss of property by natural hazards. The storm occurred on February 19-20, 1999 is one of the most destructive storm in the last decades. The 1999 event (1999 Southern Black sea storm) caused destruction at all harbors and coastal protection structures along the Black Sea coast of Turkey. The complete damage of the breakwater of Giresun Harbor and damage on the harbor structures and cargo handling equipment were the major impacts of the 1999 Southern Black sea storm. Similar coastal impact have also been observed during the September 24, 2014 storm at 500m East of Giresun harbor. Although there are considerable number of destructive storms observed at southern coast of Black sea recently, data on these events are limited and vastly scattered. In this study the list of recent extreme marine events at South coast of the Black sea compiled and related data such as wind speed, wave height, period, and type of damages are cataloged. Particular attention is focused on the 1999 and 2014 storm events. The meteorological and morphological characteristics which may be considered as the reasons of the generation and coastal amplification of these storms are discussed. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: This study is partly supported by Turkish Russian Joint Research Grant Program by TUBITAK (Turkey) and RFBR (Russia), and TUBITAK 213M534 Research Project.

  3. The driving mechanisms of particle precipitation during the moderate geomagnetic storm of 7 January 2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Longden

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available The arrival of an interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME triggered a sudden storm commencement (SSC at ~09:22 UT on the 7 January 2005. The ICME followed a quiet period in the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF. We present global scale observations of energetic electron precipitation during the moderate geomagnetic storm driven by the ICME. Energetic electron precipitation is inferred from increases in cosmic noise absorption (CNA recorded by stations in the Global Riometer Array (GLORIA. No evidence of CNA was observed during the first four hours of passage of the ICME or following the sudden commencement (SC of the storm. This is consistent with the findings of Osepian and Kirkwood (2004 that SCs will only trigger precipitation during periods of geomagnetic activity or when the magnetic perturbation in the magnetosphere is substantial. CNA was only observed following enhanced coupling between the IMF and the magnetosphere, resulting from southward oriented IMF. Precipitation was observed due to substorm activity, as a result of the initial injection and particles drifting from the injection region. During the recovery phase of the storm, when substorm activity diminished, precipitation due to density driven increases in the solar wind dynamic pressure (Pdyn were identified. A number of increases in Pdyn were shown to drive sudden impulses (SIs in the geomagnetic field. While many of these SIs appear coincident with CNA, SIs without CNA were also observed. During this period, the threshold of geomagnetic activity required for SC driven precipitation was exceeded. This implies that solar wind density driven SIs occurring during storm recovery can drive a different response in particle precipitation to typical SCs.

  4. Ionospheric Response to the Magnetic Storm of 22 June 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mansilla, Gustavo A.

    2018-03-01

    A global study is made of the response of the total electron content of the ionosphere (TEC) to the geomagnetic storm occurred on 22 June 2015 (one of the strongest geomagnetic storms of the current Solar Cycle 24). Using data from 44 sites, a hemispheric comparison is made by considering high latitudes (> 50°), middle latitudes (30°-50°) and low latitudes (30°N-30°S). The main features observed were: increases in TEC at high latitudes prior to the storm main phase, a considerable asymmetry of TEC response at middle and low latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and the Southern Hemisphere and decreases at equatorial latitudes. The long duration enhancements in TEC were well correlated with increases in the O/N2 ratio but decreases in TEC had not associated decreases in the O/N2 ratio as occur with the decreases in the electron density. Besides, prompt penetration electric fields can play an important role in the equatorial and low-latitude ionosphere during main phase of the storm.

  5. Possible biophysical mechanism of the effect of the solar activity on the human central nervous system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikhailova, G. A.; Mikhailov, Y. M.

    Numerous studies, beginning with Tchizhevsky's works, demonstrated the undeniable effect of the solar activity on the human body. A possible geophysical mechanism of the effect of the solar activity on the human body was proposed by Vladimirsky. In this mechanism solar disturbances (powerful chromospheres flares) cause "magnetosphere and plasmasphere disturbances on the Earth (sudden magnetic storms), which are accompanied by a change in the spectrum of the electromagnetic field on the Earth's surface in the extremely low frequency band. In its turn, this brings about shifts in the phisiological indices of the human body". In this model, the human body is regarded as a self-oscillating system affected by external geophysical factors. We also adhere to the main principles of this model but refine the part of this model that describes the change in the spectrum of the electromagnetic field on the Earth's surface in the extremely low frequency band. Unlike Vladimirsky model, we regard the human is not as a self-oscillating system but as one of two coupled oscillating system with discrete resonance frequencies in the human-habitat ensemble. Solar processes and their induced changes in one of the two coupled oscillating systems, specifically, the habitat play the role of an external force. Such an approach is based on the fact that the brain rhythms have the following definite frequencies: the alpha rhythm, 8-13 Hz; the beta rhythm, 14-30 Hz; the gamma rhythm, above 30 Hz; the delta rhythm, 1.5-3 Hz; and the theta rhythm, 4-7 Hz. On the other hand, the natural electromagnetic field on the Earth's surface in the extremely low frequency band also has a quite distinct resonance distribution. There are so-called Schuman resonances of the cavity formed by the Earth's surface and the lower boundary of the ionosphere (the D and E layers) at f1=10.6; f2=18.3; f3=25.9; f4=33.5; f5=41.1 Hz. These resonance frequencies are variable and most sensitive to variations of the

  6. Dynamic interactions between coastal storms and salt marshes: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonardi, Nicoletta; Carnacina, Iacopo; Donatelli, Carmine; Ganju, Neil K.; Plater, Andrew James; Schuerch, Mark; Temmerman, Stijn

    2018-01-01

    This manuscript reviews the progresses made in the understanding of the dynamic interactions between coastal storms and salt marshes, including the dissipation of extreme water levels and wind waves across marsh surfaces, the geomorphic impact of storms on salt marshes, the preservation of hurricanes signals and deposits into the sedimentary records, and the importance of storms for the long term survival of salt marshes to sea level rise. A review of weaknesses, and strengths of coastal defences incorporating the use of salt marshes including natural, and hybrid infrastructures in comparison to standard built solutions is then presented.Salt marshes are effective in dissipating wave energy, and storm surges, especially when the marsh is highly elevated, and continuous. This buffering action reduces for storms lasting more than one day. Storm surge attenuation rates range from 1.7 to 25 cm/km depending on marsh and storms characteristics. In terms of vegetation properties, the more flexible stems tend to flatten during powerful storms, and to dissipate less energy but they are also more resilient to structural damage, and their flattening helps to protect the marsh surface from erosion, while stiff plants tend to break, and could increase the turbulence level and the scour. From a morphological point of view, salt marshes are generally able to withstand violent storms without collapsing, and violent storms are responsible for only a small portion of the long term marsh erosion.Our considerations highlight the necessity to focus on the indirect long term impact that large storms exerts on the whole marsh complex rather than on sole after-storm periods. The morphological consequences of storms, even if not dramatic, might in fact influence the response of the system to normal weather conditions during following inter-storm periods. For instance, storms can cause tidal flats deepening which in turn promotes wave energy propagation, and exerts a long term

  7. Dynamic interactions between coastal storms and salt marshes: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonardi, Nicoletta; Carnacina, Iacopo; Donatelli, Carmine; Ganju, Neil Kamal; Plater, Andrew James; Schuerch, Mark; Temmerman, Stijn

    2018-01-01

    This manuscript reviews the progresses made in the understanding of the dynamic interactions between coastal storms and salt marshes, including the dissipation of extreme water levels and wind waves across marsh surfaces, the geomorphic impact of storms on salt marshes, the preservation of hurricanes signals and deposits into the sedimentary records, and the importance of storms for the long term survival of salt marshes to sea level rise. A review of weaknesses, and strengths of coastal defences incorporating the use of salt marshes including natural, and hybrid infrastructures in comparison to standard built solutions is then presented. Salt marshes are effective in dissipating wave energy, and storm surges, especially when the marsh is highly elevated, and continuous. This buffering action reduces for storms lasting more than one day. Storm surge attenuation rates range from 1.7 to 25 cm/km depending on marsh and storms characteristics. In terms of vegetation properties, the more flexible stems tend to flatten during powerful storms, and to dissipate less energy but they are also more resilient to structural damage, and their flattening helps to protect the marsh surface from erosion, while stiff plants tend to break, and could increase the turbulence level and the scour. From a morphological point of view, salt marshes are generally able to withstand violent storms without collapsing, and violent storms are responsible for only a small portion of the long term marsh erosion. Our considerations highlight the necessity to focus on the indirect long term impact that large storms exerts on the whole marsh complex rather than on sole after-storm periods. The morphological consequences of storms, even if not dramatic, might in fact influence the response of the system to normal weather conditions during following inter-storm periods. For instance, storms can cause tidal flats deepening which in turn promotes wave energy propagation, and exerts a long term detrimental

  8. Wind in the Solar System

    Science.gov (United States)

    McIntosh, Gordon

    2010-01-01

    As an astronomy instructor I am always looking for commonly experienced Earthly phenomena to help my students and me understand and appreciate similar occurrences elsewhere in the solar system. Recently I wrote short "TPT" articles on frost and precipitation. The present article is on winds in the solar system. A windy day or storm might…

  9. Simulation and analysis of synoptic scale dust storms over the Arabian Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beegum, S. Naseema; Gherboudj, Imen; Chaouch, Naira; Temimi, Marouane; Ghedira, Hosni

    2018-01-01

    Dust storms are among the most severe environmental problems in arid and semi-arid regions of the world. The predictability of seven dust events, viz. D1: April 2-4, 2014; D2: February 23-24, 2015; D3: April 1-3, 2015; D4: March 26-28, 2016; D5: August 3-5, 2016; D6: March 13-14, 2017 and D7:March 19-21, 2017, are investigated over the Arabian Peninsula using a regionally adapted chemistry transport model CHIMERE coupled with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. The hourly forecast products of particulate matter concentrations (PM10) and aerosol optical depths (AOD) are compared against both satellite-based (MSG/SEVRI RGB dust, MODIS Deep Blue Aerosol Optical Depth: DB-AOD, Ozone Monitoring Instrument observed UV Aerosol Absorption Index: OMI-AI) and ground-based (AERONET AOD) remote sensing products. The spatial pattern and the time series of the simulations show good agreement with the observations in terms of the dust intensity as well as the spatiotemporal distribution. The causative mechanisms of these dust events are identified by the concurrent analyses of the meteorological data. From these seven storms, five are associated with synoptic scale meteorological processes, such as prefrontal storms (D1 and D7), postfrontal storms of short (D2), and long (D3) duration types, and a summer shamal storm (D6). However, the storms D4 and D6 are partly associated with mesoscale convective type dust episodes known as haboobs. The socio-economic impacts of the dust events have been assessed by estimating the horizontal visibility, air quality index (AQI), and the dust deposition flux (DDF) from the forecasted dust concentrations. During the extreme dust events, the horizontal visibility drops to near-zero values co-occurred withhazardous levels of AQI and extremely high dust deposition flux (250 μg cm- 2 day- 1).

  10. Winter Storm Jupiter of January 2017: Meteorological Drivers, Synoptic Evolution, and Climate Change Considerations in Portland, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, S.; Loikith, P. C.

    2017-12-01

    Although the Pacific Northwest has some of the highest wintertime precipitation in the United States, most urban areas receive little in the way of snow. While 37 inches of wintertime rain fall in Portland on average annually, the city only receives four inches of snow on average. Although wintertime extreme snowstorm events are rare in Portland, in the last century they have occurred about once every ten years. On January 10-12th, 2017, winter storm Jupiter brought 11 inches of snow to downtown Portland within a 12-hour period, making it the largest snowstorm for the city in twenty years. The city declared a state of emergency, over 30,000 citizens lost power, and thousands of businesses were forced to shut down. The anomalously cold air and high amounts of snowfall in a short amount of time made the storm different from others in recent years. This study aims to discover the meteorological drivers behind the January 2017 snowstorm in Portland, Oregon. We also aim to understand how this storm compared with other local storms in the past, and assess the likelihood of a similar event occurring in the future. To do this, reanalysis data were used to display the synoptic evolution of the January 2017 storm. We compared this storm with two other extreme snowfall events from December 2008 and January 1980, assessing meteorological similarities and differences between storms. Results show that the 2017 event was associated with a slow moving, strong low-pressure system accompanied by a 500 hPa trough. These large-scale features helped drive slow moving, locally heavy snow bands over the city of Portland. At the same time, an unusually strong Arctic high-pressure system moved into the interior Pacific Northwest allowing for strong cold air advection west through the Cascade Mountain Range and Columbia River Gorge. Temperature trends show warming of 1-2 °C in the Pacific Northwest since the middle of the last century. Because of this, uncertainty associated with

  11. [Thyrotoxic storm and myxedema coma].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takasu, N

    1999-08-01

    Thyrotoxic or hyperthyroid storm is a grave, life-threatening, but relatively infrequent medical emergency. Immediate causes of death in this emergency are severe hyperpyrexia and pulmonary edema associated with arrhythmias, shock, and coma. This emergency is found in Graves' patients most frequently. Myxedema coma is an emergency clinical state caused by severe deficiency of thyroid hormones. This crisis represents the extreme expression of hypothyroidism. While it is quite useful to elicit a history of previous hypothyroidism, thyroid surgery, or radioactive iodine treatment, it is not obtainable.

  12. Giant boulders and Last Interglacial storm intensity in the North Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rovere, Alessio; Casella, Elisa; Harris, Daniel L.; Lorscheid, Thomas; Nandasena, Napayalage A. K.; Dyer, Blake; Sandstrom, Michael R.; Stocchi, Paolo; D'Andrea, William J.; Raymo, Maureen E.

    2017-11-01

    As global climate warms and sea level rises, coastal areas will be subject to more frequent extreme flooding and hurricanes. Geologic evidence for extreme coastal storms during past warm periods has the potential to provide fundamental insights into their future intensity. Recent studies argue that during the Last Interglacial (MIS 5e, ˜128–116 ka) tropical and extratropical North Atlantic cyclones may have been more intense than at present, and may have produced waves larger than those observed historically. Such strong swells are inferred to have created a number of geologic features that can be observed today along the coastlines of Bermuda and the Bahamas. In this paper, we investigate the most iconic among these features: massive boulders atop a cliff in North Eleuthera, Bahamas. We combine geologic field surveys, wave models, and boulder transport equations to test the hypothesis that such boulders must have been emplaced by storms of greater-than-historical intensity. By contrast, our results suggest that with the higher relative sea level (RSL) estimated for the Bahamas during MIS 5e, boulders of this size could have been transported by waves generated by storms of historical intensity. Thus, while the megaboulders of Eleuthera cannot be used as geologic proof for past “superstorms,” they do show that with rising sea levels, cliffs and coastal barriers will be subject to significantly greater erosional energy, even without changes in storm intensity.

  13. Giant boulders and Last Interglacial storm intensity in the North Atlantic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rovere, Alessio; Casella, Elisa; Harris, Daniel L; Lorscheid, Thomas; Nandasena, Napayalage A K; Dyer, Blake; Sandstrom, Michael R; Stocchi, Paolo; D'Andrea, William J; Raymo, Maureen E

    2017-11-14

    As global climate warms and sea level rises, coastal areas will be subject to more frequent extreme flooding and hurricanes. Geologic evidence for extreme coastal storms during past warm periods has the potential to provide fundamental insights into their future intensity. Recent studies argue that during the Last Interglacial (MIS 5e, ∼128-116 ka) tropical and extratropical North Atlantic cyclones may have been more intense than at present, and may have produced waves larger than those observed historically. Such strong swells are inferred to have created a number of geologic features that can be observed today along the coastlines of Bermuda and the Bahamas. In this paper, we investigate the most iconic among these features: massive boulders atop a cliff in North Eleuthera, Bahamas. We combine geologic field surveys, wave models, and boulder transport equations to test the hypothesis that such boulders must have been emplaced by storms of greater-than-historical intensity. By contrast, our results suggest that with the higher relative sea level (RSL) estimated for the Bahamas during MIS 5e, boulders of this size could have been transported by waves generated by storms of historical intensity. Thus, while the megaboulders of Eleuthera cannot be used as geologic proof for past "superstorms," they do show that with rising sea levels, cliffs and coastal barriers will be subject to significantly greater erosional energy, even without changes in storm intensity.

  14. Observations of energetic helium ions in the Earth's radiation belts during a sequence of geomagnetic storms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spjeldvik, W.N.; Fritz, T.A.

    1981-01-01

    Every year a significant number of magnetic storms disturb the earth's magnetosphere and the trapped particle populations. In this paper, we present observations of energetic (MeV) helium ions made with Explorer 45 during a sequence of magnetic storms during June through December of 1972. The first of these storms started on June 17 and had a Dst index excursion to approx.190 gamma, and the MeV helium ions were perturbed primarily beyond 3 earth radii in the equatorial radiation belts with a typical flux increase of an order of magnitude at L = 4. The second storm period took place during August and was associated with very major solar flare activity. Although the Dst extremum was at best 35 gamma less than the June storm, this period can be characterized as irregular (or multi-storm) with strong compression of the magnetosphere and very large (order of magnitude) MeV helium ion flux enhancements down to Lapprox.2. Following this injection the trapped helium ion fluxes showed positive spectral slope with the peak beyond 3.15 MeV at L = 2.5; and at the lowest observable L shells (Lapprox.2--3) little flux decay (tau>100 days) was seen during the rest of the year. Any effects of two subsequent major magnetic storms in September and November were essentially undetectable in the prolonged after-effect of the August solar flare associated MeV helium ion injection. The helium ion radial profile of the phase space density showed a significant negative slope during this period, and we infer that radial diffusion constitutes a significant loss of helium ions on L shells above Lapprox. =4 during the aftermath of the August 1972 magnetic storm

  15. Arctic Storms and Their Influence on Surface Climate in the Chukchi-Beaufort Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Y.; Zhang, X.; Rinke, A.; Zhang, J.

    2017-12-01

    Increases in the frequency and intensity of Arctic storms and resulting weather hazards may endanger the offshore environment, coastal community, and energy infrastructure in the Arctic as sea ice retreats. Advancing ability to identify fine-scale variations in surface climate produced by progressively stronger storm would be extremely helpful to resources management and sustainable development for coastal community. In this study, we analyzed the storms and their impacts on surface climate over the Beaufort-Chukchi seas by employing the date sets from both the hindcast simulations of the coupled Arctic regional climate model HIRHAM-NAOSIM and the recently developed Chukchi-Beaufort High-resolution Atmospheric Reanalysis (CBHAR). Based on the characteristics of spatial pattern and temporal variability of the Arctic storm activity, we categorized storms to three groups with their different origins: the East Siberia Sea, Alaska and the central Arctic Ocean. The storms originating from the central Arctic Ocean have the strongest intensity in winter with relatively less storm number. Storms traveling from Alaska to the Beaufort Sea most frequently occurred in autumn with weaker intensity. A large portion of storms originated from the East Siberia Sea region in summer. Further statistical analysis suggests that increase in surface air temperature and wind speed could be attributed to the increased frequency of storm occurrence in autumn (September to November) along the continental shelf in the Beaufort Sea.

  16. Solar activity during the space weather incident of Nov 4., 2015 - Complex data and lessons learned

    Science.gov (United States)

    Opgenoorth, Hermann; Pulkkinen, Antti; Buchert, Stephan; Monstein, Christian; Klein, Karl Ludwig; Marqué, Christophe; Krucker, Säm

    2016-04-01

    During the afternoon of November 4, 2015 most southern Swedish aviation radar systems experienced heavy disturbances, which eventually forced an outing of the majority of the radars. In consequence the entire southern Swedish aerospace had to be closed for incoming and leaving air traffic for about 2 hours. Immediately after the incident space weather anomalies were made responsible for the radar disturbances, but it took a very thorough investigation to differentiate disturbances from an ongoing magnetic storm caused by earlier solar activity, which had no disturbing effects on the flight radars, from a new and, indeed, extreme radio-burst on the Sun, which caused the Swedish radar anomalies. Other systems in various European countries also experienced major radio-disturbances during this extreme event, but they were not of the gravity as experienced in Sweden, or at least not causing a similar damage. One of the problems in reaching the right conclusions about the incident was that the extreme radio-burst around 1400 UT on Nov 4 (more than 50000 SFU at GHz frequencies), emerged from a medium size M3.7 Flare on the Sun, which did not trigger any immediate warnings. We will report about the analysis leading to the improved understanding of this extreme space weather event, evaluate the importance of solar radio observations, and discuss possible mitigation strategies for future events of similar nature.

  17. M-number dependence of rotation period of the solar magnetic field and its effect on coronal hole and solar flare

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saito, Takao; Oki, Tosio

    1989-01-01

    The photospheric magnetic field is revealed to rotate with different solar rotation periods depending on its m-number, or its longitudinal range. The m-dependent rotation reveals the unexplained solar cycle variation of the 28-day period of the IMF 2-sector structure in inclining/minimum years and of the 27-day period in the declining/minimum years. The m-dependent rotation reveals also the unexplained 155-day periodicity in the occurrence of solar flare clusters, suggesting a motion of the sunspot field relative to the large-scale field. The IMF sector structure is closely related to recurrent geomagnetic storms, while the flare occurrence is related to sporadic SC storms. Hence, the m-dependent rotation is quite important in the study of the STE forecast. (author)

  18. Analysis of Total Electron Content and Electron Density Profile during Different Geomagnetic Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapagain, N. P.; Rana, B.; Adhikari, B.

    2017-12-01

    Total Electron content (TEC) and electron density are the key parameters in the mitigation of ionospheric effects on radio communication system. Detail study of the TEC and electron density variations has been carried out during geomagnetic storms, with longitude and latitude, for four different locations: (13˚N -17˚N, 88˚E -98˚E), (30˚N-50˚N, 120˚W -95˚W), (29˚S-26˚S, 167˚W-163˚W,) and (60˚S-45˚S, 120˚W-105˚W) using the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite observations. In order to find the geomagnetic activity, the solar wind parameters such as north-south component of inter planetary magnetic field (Bz), plasma drift velocity (Vsw), flow pressure (nPa), AE, Dst and Kp indices were obtained from Operating Mission as Nodes on the Internet (OMNI) web system. The data for geomagnetic indices have been correlated with the TEC and electron density for four different events of geomagnetic storms on 6 April 2008, 27 March 2008, 4 September 2008, and 11 October 2008. The result illustrates that the observed TEC and electron density profile significantly vary with longitudes and latitudes. This study illustrates that the values of TEC and the vertical electron density profile are influenced by the solar wind parameters associated with solar activities. The peak values of electron density and TEC increase as the geomagnetic storms become stronger. Similarly, the electron density profile varies with altitudes, which peaks around the altitude range of about 250- 350 km, depending on the strength of geomagnetic storms. The results clearly show that the peak electron density shifted to higher altitude (from about 250 km to 350 km) as the geomagnetic disturbances becomes stronger.

  19. Clustering of European winter storms: A multi-model perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renggli, Dominik; Buettner, Annemarie; Scherb, Anke; Straub, Daniel; Zimmerli, Peter

    2016-04-01

    and moderate events, and not by extreme storms. Thus, the decision which climate model to use to quantify clustering can have a substantial impact on the risk assessment in the (re)insurance business.

  20. Responses of two genetically superior loblolly pine clonal ideotypes to a severe ice storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauren S. Pile; Christopher A. Maier; G. Geoff Wang; Dapao Yu; Tim M. Shearman

    2016-01-01

    An increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events, such as major ice storms, can have severe impacts on southern forests. We investigated the damage inflicted by a severe ice storm that occurred in February 2014 on two loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) ideotypes in Cross, South Carolina located in the southeastern coastal plain. The ‘‘narrow crown”...

  1. Study of storm surge trends in typhoon-prone coastal areas based on observations and surge-wave coupled simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Xingru; Li, Mingjie; Yin, Baoshu; Yang, Dezhou; Yang, Hongwei

    2018-06-01

    This is a study of the storm surge trends in some of the typhoon-prone coastal areas of China. An unstructured-grid, storm surge-wave-tide coupled model was established for the coastal areas of Zhejiang, Fujian and Guangdong provinces. The coupled model has a high resolution in coastal areas, and the simulated results compared well with the in situ observations and satellite altimeter data. The typhoon-induced storm surges along the coast of the study areas were simulated based on the established coupled model for the past 20 years (1997-2016). The simulated results were used to analyze the trends of the storm surges in the study area. The extreme storm surge trends along the central coast of Fujian Province reached up to 0.06 m/y, significant at the 90% confidence level. The duration of the storm surges greater than 1.0 and 0.7 m had an increasing trend along the coastal area of northern Fujian Province, significant at confidence levels of 70%-91%. The simulated trends of the extreme storm surges were also validated by observations from two tide gauge stations. Further studies show that the correlation coefficient (RTE) between the duration of the storm surge greater than 1 m and the annual ENSO index can reach as high as 0.62, significant at the 99% confidence level. This occurred in a location where the storm surge trend was not significant. For the areas with significant increasing storm surge trends, RTE was small and not significant. This study identified the storm surge trends for the full complex coastline of the study area. These results are useful both for coastal management by the government and for coastal engineering design.

  2. Solar wind parameters responsible for the plasma injection into the magnetospheric ring current region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bobrov, M.S.

    1977-01-01

    Solar wind effect on the magnetospheric ring-current region has been considered. The correlations with solar wind parameters of the magnitude qsub(o) proportional to the total energy of particles being injected into the magnetospheric ring-current region per one hour are studied statistically and by comparison of time variations. The data on 8 sporadic geomagnetic storms of various intensity, from moderate to very severe one, are used. It is found that qsub(o) correlates not only with the magnitude and the direction of the solar-wind magnetic field component normal to the ecliptic plane, Bsub(z), but also with the variability, sigmasub(B), of the total magnetic-field strength vector. The solar-wind flux velocity ν influences the average storm intensity but the time variations of ν during any individual storm do not correlate with those of qsub(o)

  3. The SURE House (Solar Decathlon 2015)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nastasi, John [Stevens Inst. of Technology, Hoboken, NJ (United States); May, Edwin [Stevens Inst. of Technology, Hoboken, NJ (United States)

    2017-02-21

    Coastal towns and cities across the Northeastern US, with their high population density, aged utility infrastructure, and unique geography, are increasingly vulnerable to climate change related storm events. In October 2012 superstorm Sandy highlighted the fragility of our current coastal building types and made clear the need for a new model of design and construction which works to understand and mitigate these weaknesses. Dramatic changes in public policy, championed by both The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) are driving the rebuilding of these shore communities, often resulting in costly renovations, un-sustainable neighborhood configurations and in direct conflict with concurrent government policies such as The American with Disabilities Act (ADA). The SURE HOUSE demonstrates a series of new design solutions to these conflicting public policies and environmental imperatives. At Stevens Institute of Technology, the 2015 Solar Decathlon started with the challenge: Can we design a home for coastal New Jersey that dramatically reduces its energy use while protecting itself from the realities of a changing, more extreme climate? The SURE HOUSE merges the iconic 20th century shore home with 21st century building science. Utilizing innovative renewable energy technologies, a ‘Passive House’ level building envelope, and rugged glass-fiber-composite materials to flood-proof the home, the SURE HOUSE is a high-performance, net-zero-energy home, armored against extreme weather, designed for the contemporary lifestyle of the Jersey Shore and other vulnerable coastal communities. SUSTAINABLE At Stevens, we recognize that energy use in the home and workplace is directly connected to the growing problem of climate change. Reducing our energy consumption by designing higher performing, compact homes that are both functional, comfortable and desirable is the first critical step towards a modern, sustainable

  4. Atmospheric circulation and storm events in the Black Sea and Caspian Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surkova, Galina V.; Arkhipkin, Victor S.; Kislov, Alexander V.

    2013-12-01

    Extreme sea storms are dangerous and a potential source of damage. In this study, we examine storm events in the Black Sea and Caspian Sea, the atmosphere circulation patterns associated with the sea storm events, and their changes in the present (1961-2000) and future (2046-2065) climates. A calendar of storms for the present climate is derived from results of wave model SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore) experiments. On the basis of this calendar, a catalog of atmospheric sea level pressure (SLP) fields was prepared from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset for 1961-2000. The SLP fields were subjected to a pattern recognition algorithm which employed empirical orthogonal decomposition followed by cluster analysis. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data is used to evaluate the occurring circulation types (CTs) within the ECHAM5-MPI/OM Atmosphere and Ocean Global Circulation Model (AOGCM) for the period 1961-2000. Our analysis shows that the ECHAM5-MPI/OM model is capable of reproducing circulation patterns for the storm events. The occurrence of present and future ECHAM5-MPI/OM CTs is investigated. It is shown that storm CTs are expected to occur noticeably less frequently in the middle of the 21st century.

  5. Geomagnetic Storm Impact On GPS Code Positioning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uray, Fırat; Varlık, Abdullah; Kalaycı, İbrahim; Öǧütcü, Sermet

    2017-04-01

    This paper deals with the geomagnetic storm impact on GPS code processing with using GIPSY/OASIS research software. 12 IGS stations in mid-latitude were chosen to conduct the experiment. These IGS stations were classified as non-cross correlation receiver reporting P1 and P2 (NONCC-P1P2), non-cross correlation receiver reporting C1 and P2 (NONCC-C1P2) and cross-correlation (CC-C1P2) receiver. In order to keep the code processing consistency between the classified receivers, only P2 code observations from the GPS satellites were processed. Four extreme geomagnetic storms October 2003, day of the year (DOY), 29, 30 Halloween Storm, November 2003, DOY 20, November 2004, DOY 08 and four geomagnetic quiet days in 2005 (DOY 92, 98, 99, 100) were chosen for this study. 24-hour rinex data of the IGS stations were processed epoch-by-epoch basis. In this way, receiver clock and Earth Centered Earth Fixed (ECEF) Cartesian Coordinates were solved for a per-epoch basis for each day. IGS combined broadcast ephemeris file (brdc) were used to partly compensate the ionospheric effect on the P2 code observations. There is no tropospheric model was used for the processing. Jet Propulsion Laboratory Application Technology Satellites (JPL ATS) computed coordinates of the stations were taken as true coordinates. The differences of the computed ECEF coordinates and assumed true coordinates were resolved to topocentric coordinates (north, east, up). Root mean square (RMS) errors for each component were calculated for each day. The results show that two-dimensional and vertical accuracy decreases significantly during the geomagnetic storm days comparing with the geomagnetic quiet days. It is observed that vertical accuracy is much more affected than the horizontal accuracy by geomagnetic storm. Up to 50 meters error in vertical component has been observed in geomagnetic storm day. It is also observed that performance of Klobuchar ionospheric correction parameters during geomagnetic storm

  6. Extremely Severe Space Weather and Geomagnetically Induced Currents in Regions with Locally Heterogeneous Ground Resistivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujita, Shigeru; Kataoka, Ryuho; Pulkkinen, Antti; Watari, Shinichi

    2016-01-01

    Large geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) triggered by extreme space weather events are now regarded as one of the serious natural threats to the modern electrified society. The risk is described in detail in High-Impact, Low-Frequency Event Risk, A Jointly-Commissioned Summary Report of the North American Electric Reliability Corporation and the US Department of Energy's November 2009 Workshop, June 2010. For example, the March 13-14,1989 storm caused a large-scale blackout affecting about 6 million people in Quebec, Canada, and resulting in substantial economic losses in Canada and the USA (Bolduc 2002). Therefore, European and North American nations have invested in GIC research such as the Solar Shield project in the USA (Pulkkinen et al. 2009, 2015a). In 2015, the Japanese government (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, METI) acknowledged the importance of GIC research in Japan. After reviewing the serious damages caused by the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, METI recognized the potential risk to the electric power grid posed by extreme space weather. During extreme events, GICs can be concerning even in mid- and low-latitude countries and have become a global issue.

  7. Mathematical models of some geomagnetic storms with SC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ivanova, P.K.

    1990-01-01

    Regressive equations for H horizontal component of three geomagnetic storms with Sc:0.1.03.82, 24.01.74 and 23.03.69 -are calculated using step-by-step regression analysis. These equations relate H with parameters of solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field. Nonlinear, square, logarithmic and trigonometric dependences are considered, as well. Most essential parameters, which contribute mostly into Sc, are determined from multiplicity (46 factors) of independent parameters

  8. The storm-time ring current: a statistical analysis at two widely separated low-latitude stations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Francia

    2004-11-01

    Full Text Available We conducted a statistical analysis of the geomagnetic field variations during the storm main phase at two low-latitude stations, separated by several hours in magnetic local time, in order to investigate the asymmetry and longitudinal extent of the storm-time ring current. The results show evidence for an asymmetric current which typically extends from evening to noon and, during moderate solar wind electric field conditions, up to the early morning, confirming the important role of the magnetospheric convection in the ring current energization. We also analyzed a possible relationship between the local current intensity during the storm main phase and the substorm activity observed at different time delays τ with respect to the storm onset. The results show a significant anticorrelation for τ =-1h, indicating that if the substorm activity is high just before the storm, a weaker ring current develops.

  9. Solar-terrestrial disturbances of June-September 1982, 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ogawa, Tadahiko

    1986-01-01

    Geomagnetic disturbances associated with the solar-terrestrial events during the period June-September 1982 are investigated using data of both solar phenomena and the satellite GMS-2 which measured solar protons and alpha particles at a geostationary orbit. It is pointed out (1) that the geomagnetic disturbances in June were weak in spite of relatively large, successive flares, (2) that the biggest geomagnetic storm during July 13 - 14 induced by the large flare (3B/X7.1) on July 12 is characterized by a geographically localized (around Japan), short-lived (1.5 hours) deep depression of geomagnetic H-component (ΔH max = -630 nT) which appeared around local morning hours, (3) that two relatively big geomagnetic storms due to long-lasting, medium-scale flares occurred in September, and (4) that there existed storms caused not by flares but presumably by coronal hole and/or filament disappearance. According to the examination of world-wide magnetograms, it is tentatively suggested that the deep depression of H-component during the July 13 - 14 storm was caused by an abnormal expansion of the substorm-associated current system in the auroral zone toward the Far East. All of the proton events due to the flares in the eastern solar hemisphere were of slow-onset type. Only one example of fast-onset type was obtained for the west limb flare on July 22. The present analyses are compared with the big solarterrestrial events which happened in February 1958 and August 1972. (author)

  10. Extreme Conditions Modeling Workshop Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coe, R. G.; Neary, V. S.; Lawson, M. J.; Yu, Y.; Weber, J.

    2014-07-01

    Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) hosted the Wave Energy Converter (WEC) Extreme Conditions Modeling (ECM) Workshop in Albuquerque, NM on May 13th-14th, 2014. The objective of the workshop was to review the current state of knowledge on how to model WECs in extreme conditions (e.g. hurricanes and other large storms) and to suggest how U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and national laboratory resources could be used to improve ECM methods for the benefit of the wave energy industry.

  11. On the impact of wind on the development of wave field during storm Britta

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Du, Jianting; Bolaños, Rodolfo

    2017-01-01

    The observation of extreme waves at FINO 1 during storm Britta on the 1st November 2006 has initiated a series of research studies regarding the mechanisms behind. The roles of stability and the presence of the open cell structures have been previously investigated but not conclusive. To improve...... our understanding of these processes, which are essential for a good forecast of similarly important events offshore, this study revisits the development of storm Britta using an atmospheric and wave coupled modeling system, wind and wave measurements from ten stations across the North Sea, cloud...... images and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data. It is found here that a standard state-of-the-art model is capable of capturing the important characteristics of a major storm like Britta, including the storm path, storm peak wind speed, the open cells, and peak significant wave height (H s ) for open sea...

  12. Modeling Spatial Dependence of Rainfall Extremes Across Multiple Durations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le, Phuong Dong; Leonard, Michael; Westra, Seth

    2018-03-01

    Determining the probability of a flood event in a catchment given that another flood has occurred in a nearby catchment is useful in the design of infrastructure such as road networks that have multiple river crossings. These conditional flood probabilities can be estimated by calculating conditional probabilities of extreme rainfall and then transforming rainfall to runoff through a hydrologic model. Each catchment's hydrological response times are unlikely to be the same, so in order to estimate these conditional probabilities one must consider the dependence of extreme rainfall both across space and across critical storm durations. To represent these types of dependence, this study proposes a new approach for combining extreme rainfall across different durations within a spatial extreme value model using max-stable process theory. This is achieved in a stepwise manner. The first step defines a set of common parameters for the marginal distributions across multiple durations. The parameters are then spatially interpolated to develop a spatial field. Storm-level dependence is represented through the max-stable process for rainfall extremes across different durations. The dependence model shows a reasonable fit between the observed pairwise extremal coefficients and the theoretical pairwise extremal coefficient function across all durations. The study demonstrates how the approach can be applied to develop conditional maps of the return period and return level across different durations.

  13. Measuring storm tide and high-water marks caused by Hurricane Sandy in New York: Chapter 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simonson, Amy E.; Behrens, Riley

    2015-01-01

    In response to Hurricane Sandy, personnel from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) deployed a temporary network of storm-tide sensors from Virginia to Maine. During the storm, real-time water levels were available from tide gages and rapid-deployment gages (RDGs). After the storm, USGS scientists retrieved the storm-tide sensors and RDGs and surveyed high-water marks. These data demonstrate that the timing of peak storm surge relative to astronomical tide was extremely important in southeastern New York. For example, along the south shores of New York City and western Suffolk County, the peak storm surge of 6–9 ft generally coincided with the astronomical high tide, which resulted in substantial coastal flooding. In the Peconic Estuary and northern Nassau County, however, the peak storm surge of 9 ft and nearly 12 ft, respectively, nearly coincided with normal low tide, which helped spare these communities from more severe coastal flooding.

  14. Phosphorus Dynamics along River Continuum during Typhoon Storm Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Fai Chow

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Information on riverine phosphorus (P dynamics during typhoon storm events remains scarce in subtropical regions. Thus, this study investigates the spatial and temporal dynamics of riverine phosphorus in a headwater catchment during three typhoon events. Continuous sampling (3 h intervals of stormwater samples and discharge data were conducted at five locations, which represent the upstream, transitional zone, and downstream areas of the main inflow river. The results revealed that the average event mean concentrations (EMCs for total dissolved phosphorus (TDP and particulate phosphorus (PP in the upstream catchment of Fei-Tsui reservoir were 15.66 μg/L and 11.94 μg/L, respectively. There was at least a 1.3-fold increase in flow-weighted concentrations of TDP and PP from the upper to lower reaches of the main stream. PP and TDP were transported either in clockwise or anticlockwise directions, depending on storm intensity and source. The transport of TDP was primarily regulated by the subsurface flow during the storm event. Soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP contributes more than 50% of the TDP load in moderate storms, while extreme storms supply a greater dissolved organic phosphorus (DOP load into the stream. TDP accounted for approximately 50% of TP load during typhoon storms. Mobilization of all P forms was observed from upstream to downstream of the river, except for DOP. A decrease of DOP load on passing downstream may reflect the change in phosphorus form along the river continuum. Peak discharge and antecedent dry days are correlated positively with P fluxes, indicating that river bank erosion and re-suspension of within-channel sediment are the dominant pathways of P during typhoon storm periods.

  15. A linear relationship between wave power and erosion determines salt-marsh resilience to violent storms and hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonardi, Nicoletta; Ganju, Neil K.; Fagherazzi, Sergio

    2016-01-01

    Salt marsh losses have been documented worldwide because of land use change, wave erosion, and sea-level rise. It is still unclear how resistant salt marshes are to extreme storms and whether they can survive multiple events without collapsing. Based on a large dataset of salt marsh lateral erosion rates collected around the world, here, we determine the general response of salt marsh boundaries to wave action under normal and extreme weather conditions. As wave energy increases, salt marsh response to wind waves remains linear, and there is not a critical threshold in wave energy above which salt marsh erosion drastically accelerates. We apply our general formulation for salt marsh erosion to historical wave climates at eight salt marsh locations affected by hurricanes in the United States. Based on the analysis of two decades of data, we find that violent storms and hurricanes contribute less than 1% to long-term salt marsh erosion rates. In contrast, moderate storms with a return period of 2.5 mo are those causing the most salt marsh deterioration. Therefore, salt marshes seem more susceptible to variations in mean wave energy rather than changes in the extremes. The intrinsic resistance of salt marshes to violent storms and their predictable erosion rates during moderate events should be taken into account by coastal managers in restoration projects and risk management plans.

  16. A linear relationship between wave power and erosion determines salt-marsh resilience to violent storms and hurricanes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonardi, Nicoletta; Ganju, Neil K; Fagherazzi, Sergio

    2016-01-05

    Salt marsh losses have been documented worldwide because of land use change, wave erosion, and sea-level rise. It is still unclear how resistant salt marshes are to extreme storms and whether they can survive multiple events without collapsing. Based on a large dataset of salt marsh lateral erosion rates collected around the world, here, we determine the general response of salt marsh boundaries to wave action under normal and extreme weather conditions. As wave energy increases, salt marsh response to wind waves remains linear, and there is not a critical threshold in wave energy above which salt marsh erosion drastically accelerates. We apply our general formulation for salt marsh erosion to historical wave climates at eight salt marsh locations affected by hurricanes in the United States. Based on the analysis of two decades of data, we find that violent storms and hurricanes contribute less than 1% to long-term salt marsh erosion rates. In contrast, moderate storms with a return period of 2.5 mo are those causing the most salt marsh deterioration. Therefore, salt marshes seem more susceptible to variations in mean wave energy rather than changes in the extremes. The intrinsic resistance of salt marshes to violent storms and their predictable erosion rates during moderate events should be taken into account by coastal managers in restoration projects and risk management plans.

  17. AMPTE/CCE observations of the plasma composition below 17 keV during the September 4, 1984 magnetic storm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shelley, E.G.; Klumpar, D.M.; Peterson, W.K.; Ghielmetti, A.; Balsiger, H.; Geiss, J.; Rosenbauer, H.; Bern Universitaet, Switzerland; Max-Planck-Institut fuer Aeronomie, Katlenburg, West Germany)

    1985-01-01

    Observations from the Hot Plasma Composition Experiment on the AMPTE/CCE spacecraft during the magnetic storm of 4-5 September 1984 reveal that significant injection of ions of terrestrial origin accompanied the storm development. The compression of the magnetosphere at storm sudden commencement carried the magnetopause inside the CCE orbit clearly revealing the shocked solar wind plasma. A build up of suprathermal ions is observed near the plasmapause during the storm main phase and recovery phase. Pitch angle distributions in the ring current during the main phase show differences between H(+) and O(+) that suggest mass dependent injection, transport and/or loss processes. 9 references

  18. A new ionospheric storm scale based on TEC and foF2 statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishioka, Michi; Tsugawa, Takuya; Jin, Hidekatsu; Ishii, Mamoru

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we propose the I-scale, a new ionospheric storm scale for general users in various regions in the world. With the I-scale, ionospheric storms can be classified at any season, local time, and location. Since the ionospheric condition largely depends on many factors such as solar irradiance, energy input from the magnetosphere, and lower atmospheric activity, it had been difficult to scale ionospheric storms, which are mainly caused by solar and geomagnetic activities. In this study, statistical analysis was carried out for total electron content (TEC) and F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) in Japan for 18 years from 1997 to 2014. Seasonal, local time, and latitudinal dependences of TEC and foF2 variabilities are excluded by normalizing each percentage variation using their statistical standard deviations. The I-scale is defined by setting thresholds to the normalized numbers to seven categories: I0, IP1, IP2, IP3, IN1, IN2, and IN3. I0 represents a quiet state, and IP1 (IN1), IP2 (IN2), and IP3 (IN3) represent moderate, strong, and severe positive (negative) storms, respectively. The proposed I-scale can be used for other locations, such as polar and equatorial regions. It is considered that the proposed I-scale can be a standardized scale to help the users to assess the impact of space weather on their systems.

  19. The ion population of the magnetotail during the 17 April 2002 magnetic storm: Large-scale kinetic simulations and IMAGE/HENA observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peroomian, Vahé; El-Alaoui, Mostafa; Brandt, Pontus C.:son

    2011-05-01

    The contribution of solar wind and ionospheric ions to the ion population of the magnetotail during the 17 April 2002 geomagnetic storm was investigated by using large-scale kinetic (LSK) particle tracing calculations. We began our investigation by carrying out a global magnetohydrodynamic simulation of the storm event by using upstream solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field data from the ACE spacecraft. We launched solar wind H+ ions and ionospheric O+ ions beginning at 0900 UT, ˜2 h prior to the sudden storm commencement (SSC), until 2000 UT. We found that during this Dst ˜ -98 nT storm, solar wind ions carried the bulk of the density and energy density in the nightside ring current and plasma sheet, with the notable exception of the 90 min immediately after the SSC when O+ densities in the ring current exceeded those of H+ ions. The LSK simulation did a very good job of reproducing ion densities observed by the Los Alamos National Laboratory spacecraft at geosynchronous orbit and reproduced the changes in the inner magnetosphere and the injection of ions observed by the IMAGE spacecraft during a substorm that occurred at 1900 UT. These comparisons with observations serve to validate our results throughout the magnetotail and allow us to obtain time-dependent maps of H+ and O+ density and energy density where IMAGE cannot make measurements. In essence, this work extends the viewing window of the IMAGE spacecraft far downtail.

  20. Space Weather Monitoring for ISS Geomagnetic Storm Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minow, Joseph I.; Parker, Linda Neergaard

    2013-01-01

    The International Space Station (ISS) space environments community utilizes near real time space weather data to support a variety of ISS engineering and science activities. The team has operated the Floating Potential Measurement Unit (FPMU) suite of plasma instruments (two Langmuir probes, a floating potential probe, and a plasma impedance probe) on ISS since 2006 to obtain in-situ measurements of plasma density and temperature along the ISS orbit and variations in ISS frame potential due to electrostatic current collection from the plasma environment (spacecraft charging) and inductive (vxB) effects from the vehicle motion across the Earth s magnetic field. An ongoing effort is to use FPMU for measuring the ionospheric response to geomagnetic storms at ISS altitudes and investigate auroral charging of the vehicle as it passes through regions of precipitating auroral electrons. This work is challenged by restrictions on FPMU operations that limit observation time to less than about a third of a year. As a result, FPMU campaigns ranging in length from a few days to a few weeks are typically scheduled weeks in advance for ISS engineering and payload science activities. In order to capture geomagnetic storm data under these terms, we monitor near real time space weather data from NASA, NOAA, and ESA sources to determine solar wind disturbance arrival times at Earth likely to be geoeffective (including coronal mass ejections and high speed streams associated with coronal holes) and activate the FPMU ahead of the storm onset. Using this technique we have successfully captured FPMU data during a number of geomagnetic storm periods including periods with ISS auroral charging. This presentation will describe the strategies and challenges in capturing FPMU data during geomagnetic storms, the near real time space weather resources utilized for monitoring the space weather environment, and provide examples of auroral charging data obtained during storm operations.

  1. New insights on geomagnetic storms from observations and modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jordanova, Vania K [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2009-01-01

    Understanding the response at Earth of the Sun's varying energy output and forecasting geomagnetic activity is of central interest to space science, since intense geomagnetic storms may cause severe damages on technological systems and affect communications. Episodes of southward (Bzsolar wind streams (HSS) whose geoeffectiveness is due to IMF Bz profiles fluctuating about zero with various amplitudes and duration. We show examples of ring current simulations during two geomagnetic storms representative of each interplanetary condition with our kinetic ring current atmosphere interactions model (RAM), and investigate the mechanisms responsible for trapping particles and for causing their loss. We find that periods of increased magnetospheric convection coinciding with enhancements of plasma sheet density are needed for strong ring current buildup. During the HSS-driven storm the convection potential is highly variable and causes small sporadic injections into the ring current. The long period of enhanced convection during the CME-driven storm causes a continuous ring current injection penetrating to lower L shells and stronger ring current buildup.

  2. Effects of geomagnetic storms in the lower ionosphere, middle atmosphere and troposphere.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lastovicka, J.

    1996-05-01

    Geomagnetic storm effects at heights of about 0-100 km are briefly (not comprehensively) reviewed, with emphasis being paid to middle latitudes, particularly to Europe. Effects of galactic cosmic rays, solar particle events, relativistic and highly relativistic electrons, and IMF sector boundary crossings are briefly mentioned as well. Geomagnetic storms disturb the lower ionosphere heavily at high latitudes and very significantly also at middle latitudes. The effect is almost simultaneous at high latitudes, while an after-effect dominates at middle latitudes. The lower thermosphere is disturbed significantly. In the mesosphere and stratosphere, the effects become weaker and eventually non-detectable. There is an effect in total ozone but only under special conditions. Surprisingly enough, correlations with geomagnetic storms seem to reappear in the troposphere, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere. Atmospheric electricity is affected by geomagnetic storms, as well. We essentially understand the effects of geomagnetic storms in the lower ionosphere, but there is a lack of mechanisms to explain correlations found deeper in the atmosphere, particularly in the troposphere. There seem to be two different groups of effects with possibly different mechanisms - those observed in the lower ionosphere, lower thermosphere and mesosphere, and those observed in the troposphere.

  3. Geomagnetic storms and electric fields in the equatorial ionosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rastogi, R.G.

    1977-01-01

    Using direct measurements of equatorial electric field during a geomagnetic storm it is shown that the large decrease in the field observed near the dip equator is due to the reversal of the equatorial electrojet current. This is caused by the imposition of an additional westward electric field on the equatorial ionosphere which was originated by the interaction of solar wind with the interplanetary magnetic field. (author)

  4. Prediction of geomagnetic storms from solar wind data with the use of a neural network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Lundstedt

    Full Text Available An artificial feed-forward neural network with one hidden layer and error back-propagation learning is used to predict the geomagnetic activity index (Dst one hour in advance. The Bz-component and ΣBz, the density, and the velocity of the solar wind are used as input to the network. The network is trained on data covering a total of 8700 h, extracted from the 25-year period from 1963 to 1987, taken from the NSSDC data base. The performance of the network is examined with test data, not included in the training set, which covers 386 h and includes four different storms. Whilst the network predicts the initial and main phase well, the recovery phase is not modelled correctly, implying that a single hidden layer error back-propagation network is not enough, if the measured Dst is not available instantaneously. The performance of the network is independent of whether the raw parameters are used, or the electric field and square root of the dynamical pressure.

  5. Extreme storm surges in the south of Brazil: atmospheric conditions and shore erosion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cláudia Klose Parise

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The region under study is regularly subject to the occurrence of storms associated with frontal systems and extratropical cyclones, since it is located near one of the cyclogenetic regions in South America. These storms can generate storm surges that cause anomalous high sea level rises on Cassino Beach. The use of reanalysis data along with an efficient technique for the location of the cyclone, using a vorticity threshold, has provided a new classification based upon the trajectories of events that produce positive sea level variation. Three patterns have been identified: 1 Cyclogenesis to the south of Argentina with displacement to the east and a trajectory between 47.5ºS and 57.5ºS; 2 Cyclogenesis to the south of Uruguay with displacement to the east and a trajectory between 35ºS and 42.5ºS; and 3 Cyclogenesis to the south of Uruguay with displacement to the southeast and a trajectory between 35ºS and 57.5ºS. Maximum water level elevation above the mean sea level and beach erosion were associated, respectively, with winter and summer storms. Cassino beach displayed a seasonal morphological behavior, with short periods of episodic erosion associated with winter storm events followed by long periods of accretion characterized by the dominance of fair weather conditions.Marés meteorológicas que geram sobre-elevações do nível do mar são freqüentes na costa do Rio Grande do Sul e respondem às variações ocorridas na atmosfera. Torna-se importante, dessa maneira, definir padrões meteorológicos sinóticos responsáveis por gerar eventos de marés meteorológicas intensas na Praia do Cassino como objetivo desse trabalho. O uso de dados de reanálise associados a uma técnica eficiente de localização do ciclone, aplicando o conceito de vorticidade, permitiu definir uma nova classificação com base na trajetória de ciclones extratropicais responsáveis pela subida do nível do mar. Três padrões de trajetórias foram

  6. Characteristics of Extreme Extratropical Cyclones in a High-Resolution Global Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catalano, A. J.; Broccoli, A. J.; Kapnick, S. B.; Janoski, T. P.

    2017-12-01

    In the northeastern United States, many of the strongest impacts from extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are associated with storms that exhibit slow movement, unusual tracks, or exceptional intensity. Examples of extreme ETCs include the Appalachian storm of November 1950, the Perfect Storm of October 1991, and the Superstorm of March 1993. Owing to the rare nature of these events, it is difficult to quantify the associated risks (e.g. high winds, storm surge) given the limited duration of high-quality observational datasets. Furthermore, storms with even greater impacts than those observed may be possible, particularly in a warming climate. In the context of tropical cyclones, Lin and Emanuel (2016) have used the metaphor "grey swans" to refer to high-impact events that have not been observed but may be physically possible. One method for analyzing "grey swans" is to generate a larger sample of ETCs using a coupled climate model. Therefore, we use long simulations (over 1,000 years with atmospheric constituents fixed at 1990 levels) from a global climate model (GFDL FLOR) with 50km atmospheric resolution. FLOR has been shown to realistically simulate the spatial distribution and climatology of ETCs during the reanalysis era. We will discuss the climatological features of these extreme ETC events.

  7. Numerical modelling of tides and storm surges in the Bay of Bengal

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sindhu, B.

    were done. A storm surge model was developed to simulate total water levels and derived surges caused by low pressure systems identified during the past 27 years (1974-2000) in the Bay of Bengal. Study also estimated the return levels of extreme sea...

  8. Mode Conversion of a Solar Extreme-ultraviolet Wave over a Coronal Cavity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zong, Weiguo [Key Laboratory of Space Weather, National Center for Space Weather, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081 (China); Dai, Yu, E-mail: ydai@nju.edu.cn [Key Laboratory of Modern Astronomy and Astrophysics (Nanjing University), Ministry of Education, Nanjing 210023 (China)

    2017-01-10

    We report on observations of an extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) wave event in the Sun on 2011 January 13 by Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory and Solar Dynamics Observatory in quadrature. Both the trailing edge and the leading edge of the EUV wave front in the north direction are reliably traced, revealing generally compatible propagation velocities in both perspectives and a velocity ratio of about 1/3. When the wave front encounters a coronal cavity near the northern polar coronal hole, the trailing edge of the front stops while its leading edge just shows a small gap and extends over the cavity, meanwhile getting significantly decelerated but intensified. We propose that the trailing edge and the leading edge of the northward propagating wave front correspond to a non-wave coronal mass ejection component and a fast-mode magnetohydrodynamic wave component, respectively. The interaction of the fast-mode wave and the coronal cavity may involve a mode conversion process, through which part of the fast-mode wave is converted to a slow-mode wave that is trapped along the magnetic field lines. This scenario can reasonably account for the unusual behavior of the wave front over the coronal cavity.

  9. Attribution of Extreme Rainfall from Landfalling Tropical Cyclones to Climate Change for the Eastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, M.; Yang, L.; Smith, J. A.; Vecchi, G. A.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme rainfall and flooding associated with landfalling tropical cyclones (TC) is responsible for vast socioeconomic losses and fatalities. Landfalling tropical cyclones are an important element of extreme rainfall and flood peak distributions in the eastern United States. Record floods for USGS stream gauging stations over the eastern US are closely tied to landfalling hurricanes. A small number of storms account for the largest record floods, most notably Hurricanes Diane (1955) and Agnes (1972). The question we address is: if the synoptic conditions accompanying those hurricanes were to be repeated in the future, how would the thermodynamic and dynamic storm properties and associated extreme rainfall differ in response to climate change? We examine three hurricanes: Diane (1955), Agnes (1972) and Irene (2011), due to the contrasts in structure/evolution properties and their important roles in dictating the upper tail properties of extreme rainfall and flood frequency over eastern US. Extreme rainfall from Diane is more localized as the storm maintains tropical characteristics, while synoptic-scale vertical motion associated with extratropical transition is a central feature for extreme rainfall induced by Agnes. Our analyses are based on ensemble simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, considering combinations of different physics options (i.e., microphysics, boundary layer schemes). The initial and boundary conditions of WRF simulations for the present-day climate are using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20thCR). A sub-selection of GCMs is used, as part of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), to provide future climate projections. For future simulations, changes in model fields (i.e., temperature, humidity, geopotential height) between present-day and future climate are first derived and then added to the same 20thCR initial and boundary data used for the present-day simulations, and the ensemble is

  10. UBVRc Ic ANALYSIS OF THE RECENTLY DISCOVERED TOTALLY ECLIPSING EXTREME MASS RATIO BINARY V1853 ORIONIS, AND A STATISTICAL LOOK AT 25 OTHER EXTREME MASS RATIO SOLAR-TYPE CONTACT BINARIES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samec, R. G.; Labadorf, C. M.; Hawkins, N. C.; Faulkner, D. R.; Van Hamme, W.

    2011-01-01

    We present precision CCD light curves, a period study, photometrically derived standard magnitudes, and a five-color simultaneous Wilson code solution of the totally eclipsing, yet shallow amplitude (A v ∼ 0.4 mag) eclipsing, binary V1853 Orionis. It is determined to be an extreme mass ratio, q = 0.20, W-type W UMa overcontact binary. From our standard star observations, we find that the variable is a late-type F spectral-type dwarf, with a secondary component of about 0.24 solar masses (stellar type M5V). Its long eclipse duration (41 minutes) as compared to its period, 0.383 days, attests to the small relative size of the secondary. Furthermore, it has reached a Roche lobe fill-out of ∼50% of its outer critical lobe as it approaches its final stages of binary star evolution, that of a fast spinning single star. Finally, a summary of about 25 extreme mass ratio solar-type binaries is given.

  11. Statistical study of interplanetary condition effect on geomagnetic storms: 2. Variations of parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yermolaev, Yu. I.; Lodkina, I. G.; Nikolaeva, N. S.; Yermolaev, M. Yu.

    2011-02-01

    We investigate the behavior of mean values of the solar wind’s and interplanetary magnetic field’s (IMF) parameters and their absolute and relative variations during the magnetic storms generated by various types of the solar wind. In this paper, which is a continuation of paper [1], we, on the basis of the OMNI data archive for the period of 1976-2000, have analyzed 798 geomagnetic storms with D st ≤ -50 nT and their interplanetary sources: corotating interaction regions CIR, compression regions Sheath before the interplanetary CMEs; magnetic clouds MC; “Pistons” Ejecta, and an uncertain type of a source. For the analysis the double superposed epoch analysis method was used, in which the instants of the magnetic storm onset and the minimum of the D st index were taken as reference times. It is shown that the set of interplanetary sources of magnetic storms can be sub-divided into two basic groups according to their slowly and fast varying characteristics: (1) ICME (MC and Ejecta) and (2) CIR and Sheath. The mean values, the absolute and relative variations in MC and Ejecta for all parameters appeared to be either mean or lower than the mean value (the mean values of the electric field E y and of the B z component of IMF are higher in absolute value), while in CIR and Sheath they are higher than the mean value. High values of the relative density variation sN/ are observed in MC. At the same time, the high values for relative variations of the velocity, B z component, and IMF magnitude are observed in Sheath and CIR. No noticeable distinctions in the relationships between considered parameters for moderate and strong magnetic storms were observed.

  12. Role of storms and forest practices in sedimentation of an Oregon Coast Range lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, K.; Hatten, J. A.; Wheatcroft, R. A.; Guerrero, F. J.

    2014-12-01

    The design of better management practices in forested watersheds to face climate change and the associated increase in the frequency of extreme events requires a better understanding of watershed responses to extreme events in the past and also under management regimes. One of the most sensitive watershed processes affected is sediment yield. Lake sediments record events which occur in a watershed and provide an opportunity to examine the interaction of storms and forest management practices in the layers of the stratigraphy. We hypothesize that timber harvesting and road building since the 1900s has resulted in increases in sedimentation; however, the passage of the Oregon Forest Practices Act (OFPA) in 1972 has led to a decrease in sedimentation. Sediment cores were taken at Loon Lake in the Oregon Coast Range. The 32-m deep lake captures sediment from a catchment highly impacted by recent land use and episodic Pacific storms. We can use sedimentological tools to measure changes in sediment production as motivated by extreme floods before settlement, during a major timber harvesting period, and after installation of forestry Best Management Practices. Quantification of changes in particle size and elemental composition (C, N, C/N) throughout the cores can elucidate changes in watershed response to extreme events, as can changes in layer thickness. Age control in the cores is being established by Cesium-137 and radiocarbon dating. Given the instrumental meteorological data and decadal climate reconstructions, we will disentangle climate driven signals from changes in land use practices. The sediment shows distinct laminations and varying thickness of layers throughout the cores. Background deposition is composed of thin layers (events to determine if the OFPA is having an effect on reducing sedimentation rates as a result of extreme magnitude storm events.

  13. Adaptation strategies of endolithic chlorophototrophs to survive the hyperarid and extreme solar radiation environment of the Atacama Desert.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wierzchos, Jacek; DiRuggiero, Jocelyne; Vítek, Petr; Artieda, Octavio; Souza-Egipsy, Virginia; Škaloud, Pavel; Tisza, Michel; Davila, Alfonso F; Vílchez, Carlos; Garbayo, Inés; Ascaso, Carmen

    2015-01-01

    The Atacama Desert, northern Chile, is one of the driest deserts on Earth and, as such, a natural laboratory to explore the limits of life and the strategies evolved by microorganisms to adapt to extreme environments. Here we report the exceptional adaptation strategies of chlorophototrophic and eukaryotic algae, and chlorophototrophic and prokaryotic cyanobacteria to the hyperarid and extremely high solar radiation conditions occurring in this desert. Our approach combined several microscopy techniques, spectroscopic analytical methods, and molecular analyses. We found that the major adaptation strategy was to avoid the extreme environmental conditions by colonizing cryptoendolithic, as well as, hypoendolithic habitats within gypsum deposits. The cryptoendolithic colonization occurred a few millimeters beneath the gypsum surface and showed a succession of organized horizons of algae and cyanobacteria, which has never been reported for endolithic microbial communities. The presence of cyanobacteria beneath the algal layer, in close contact with sepiolite inclusions, and their hypoendolithic colonization suggest that occasional liquid water might persist within these sub-microhabitats. We also identified the presence of abundant carotenoids in the upper cryptoendolithic algal habitat and scytonemin in the cyanobacteria hypoendolithic habitat. This study illustrates that successful lithobiontic microbial colonization at the limit for microbial life is the result of a combination of adaptive strategies to avoid excess solar irradiance and extreme evapotranspiration rates, taking advantage of the complex structural and mineralogical characteristics of gypsum deposits-conceptually called "rock's habitable architecture." Additionally, self-protection by synthesis and accumulation of secondary metabolites likely produces a shielding effect that prevents photoinhibition and lethal photooxidative damage to the chlorophototrophs, representing another level of adaptation.

  14. Mathematical aspects of assessing extreme events for the safety of nuclear plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potempski, Slawomir; Borysiewicz, Mieczyslaw

    2015-04-01

    In the paper the review of mathematical methodologies applied for assessing low frequencies of rare natural events like earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes or tornadoes, floods (in particular flash floods and surge storms), lightning, solar flares, etc., will be given in the perspective of the safety assessment of nuclear plants. The statistical methods are usually based on the extreme value theory, which deals with the analysis of extreme deviation from the median (or the mean). In this respect application of various mathematical tools can be useful, like: the extreme value theorem of Fisher-Tippett-Gnedenko leading to possible choices of general extreme value distributions, or the Pickands-Balkema-de Haan theorem for tail fitting, or the methods related to large deviation theory. In the paper the most important stochastic distributions relevant for performing rare events statistical analysis will be presented. This concerns, for example, the analysis of the data with the annual extreme values (maxima - "Annual Maxima Series" or minima), or the peak values, exceeding given thresholds at some periods of interest ("Peak Over Threshold"), or the estimation of the size of exceedance. Despite of the fact that there is a lack of sufficient statistical data directly containing rare events, in some cases it is still possible to extract useful information from existing larger data sets. As an example one can consider some data sets available from the web sites for floods, earthquakes or generally natural hazards. Some aspects of such data sets will be also presented taking into account their usefulness for the practical assessment of risk for nuclear power plants coming from extreme weather conditions.

  15. Ionospheric Response to St. Patrick's Day Storm of 2015 Over Indian Region: Ionosonde and All-Sky Imager Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, S.; Upadhayaya, A. K.; Taori, A. K.; Kotnala, R. K.

    2017-12-01

    The St. Patrick's Day Storm of 2015 was the first superstorm of 24th solar cycle, with Dst dipping down to -223 nT. The response of this severe (G4) storm is studied using ionosonde data at low-mid latitude Indian station, Delhi (28.6°N, 77.2°E), along with 630.0 nm night airglow observations from low latitude Indian station, Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E). A peculiar occurrence of additional stratification, not observed before at this latitude, is found to be present between F1 and F2 layers before the SSC of the storm. This observed extra stratification in F layer (F1.5) is attributed to TIDs during vertically uplifted F region. Apart from this, additional stratification above F2 layer, lasting for about half an hour, was seen during this storm. A large variation in F2 layer critical parameters, showing both positive and negative phases, with electron density enhancement of 264% and depression of 65%, is observed during this storm. Contrary to the previous reports, Spread-F occurrence at Delhi do not follow anticorrelation with solar activity. The night airglow observations of 630.0 nm from Gadanki indicates towards the presence of external forcing which results in drifting of plasma in the opposite direction (westward) to that of normally seen, during this St. Patrick's Day storm of 2015. The variation in neutral composition (O/N2 taken from GUVI) is found during this storm. This result suggests O/N2 ratio to be a vital contributor, apart from the electric field and neutral wind, in determining the ionospheric response to such transient events.

  16. Energy Savings of Low-E Storm Windows and Panels across US Climate Zones

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Culp, Thomas D. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Cort, Katherine A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-10-01

    This report builds off of previous modeling work related to low-e storm windows used to create a "Database of U.S. Climate-Based Analysis for Low-E Storm Windows." This work updates similar studies using new fuel costs and examining the separate contributions of reduced air leakage and reduced coefficients of overall heat transfer and solar heat gain. In this report we examine the energy savings and cost effectiveness of low-E storm windows in residential homes across a broad range of U.S. climates, excluding the impact from infiltration reductions, which tend to vary using the National Energy Audit Tool (NEAT) and RESFEN model calculations. This report includes a summary of the results, NEAT and RESFEN background, methodology, and input assumptions, and an appendix with detailed results and assumptions by climate zone.

  17. Formation of a strong southward IMF near the solar maximum of cycle 23

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Watari

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available We analyzed observations of the solar activities and the solar wind parameters associated with large geomagnetic storms near the maximum of solar cycle 23. This analysis showed that strong southward interplanetary magnetic fields (IMFs, formed through interaction between an interplanetary disturbance, and background solar wind or between interplanetary disturbances are an important factor in the occurrence of intense geomagnetic storms. Based on our analysis, we seek to improve our understanding of the physical processes in which large negative Bz's are created which will lead to improving predictions of space weather.

    Key words. Interplanetary physics (Flare and stream dynamics; Interplanetary magnetic fields; Interplanetary shocks

  18. Use of Remote Sensing Data to Enhance NWS Storm Damage Toolkit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jedlove, Gary J.; Molthan, Andrew L.; White, Kris; Burks, Jason; Stellman, Keith; Smith, Mathew

    2012-01-01

    In the wake of a natural disaster such as a tornado, the National Weather Service (NWS) is required to provide a very detailed and timely storm damage assessment to local, state and federal homeland security officials. The Post ]Storm Data Acquisition (PSDA) procedure involves the acquisition and assembly of highly perishable data necessary for accurate post ]event analysis and potential integration into a geographic information system (GIS) available to its end users and associated decision makers. Information gained from the process also enables the NWS to increase its knowledge of extreme events, learn how to better use existing equipment, improve NWS warning programs, and provide accurate storm intensity and damage information to the news media and academia. To help collect and manage all of this information, forecasters in NWS Southern Region are currently developing a Storm Damage Assessment Toolkit (SDAT), which incorporates GIS ]capable phones and laptops into the PSDA process by tagging damage photography, location, and storm damage details with GPS coordinates for aggregation within the GIS database. However, this tool alone does not fully integrate radar and ground based storm damage reports nor does it help to identify undetected storm damage regions. In many cases, information on storm damage location (beginning and ending points, swath width, etc.) from ground surveys is incomplete or difficult to obtain. Geographic factors (terrain and limited roads in rural areas), manpower limitations, and other logistical constraints often prevent the gathering of a comprehensive picture of tornado or hail damage, and may allow damage regions to go undetected. Molthan et al. (2011) have shown that high resolution satellite data can provide additional valuable information on storm damage tracks to augment this database. This paper presents initial development to integrate satellitederived damage track information into the SDAT for near real ]time use by forecasters

  19. Role of solar influences on geomagnetosphere and upper atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar Tripathi, Arvind

    The Earth's magnetosphere and upper atmosphere can be greatly perturbed by variations in the solar luminosity caused by disturbances on the solar surface. The state of near-Earth space environment is governed by the Sun and is very dynamic on all spatial and temporal scale. The geomagnetic field which protects the Earth from solar wind and cosmic rays is also essential to the evolution of life; its variations can have either direct or indirect effect on human physiology and health state even if the magnitude of the disturbance is small. Geomagnetic disturbances are seen at the surface of the Earth as perturbations in the components of the geomagnetic field, caused by electric currents flowing in the magnetosphere and upper atmosphere. Ionospheric and thermospheric storms also result from the redistribution of particles and fields. Global thermospheric storm winds and composition changes are driven by energy injection at high latitudes. These storm effects may penetrate downwards to the lower thermosphere and may even perturb the mesosphere. Many of the ionospheric changes at mid-latitude can be understood as a response to thermospheric perturbations. The transient bursts of solar energetic particles, often associated with large solar transients, have been observed to have effects on the Earth's middle and lower atmosphere, including the large-scale destruction of polar stratospheric and tropospheric ozone. In the present, we have discussed effect of solar influences on earth's magnetosphere and upper atmosphere that are useful to space weather and global warming, on the basis of various latest studies.

  20. Modelling sea level rise impacts on storm surges along US coasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tebaldi, Claudia; Strauss, Benjamin H; Zervas, Chris E

    2012-01-01

    Sound policies for protecting coastal communities and assets require good information about vulnerability to flooding. Here, we investigate the influence of sea level rise on expected storm surge-driven water levels and their frequencies along the contiguous United States. We use model output for global temperature changes, a semi-empirical model of global sea level rise, and long-term records from 55 nationally distributed tidal gauges to develop sea level rise projections at each gauge location. We employ more detailed records over the period 1979–2008 from the same gauges to elicit historic patterns of extreme high water events, and combine these statistics with anticipated relative sea level rise to project changing local extremes through 2050. We find that substantial changes in the frequency of what are now considered extreme water levels may occur even at locations with relatively slow local sea level rise, when the difference in height between presently common and rare water levels is small. We estimate that, by mid-century, some locations may experience high water levels annually that would qualify today as ‘century’ (i.e., having a chance of occurrence of 1% annually) extremes. Today’s century levels become ‘decade’ (having a chance of 10% annually) or more frequent events at about a third of the study gauges, and the majority of locations see substantially higher frequency of previously rare storm-driven water heights in the future. These results add support to the need for policy approaches that consider the non-stationarity of extreme events when evaluating risks of adverse climate impacts. (letter)

  1. Extrapolation of Extreme Response for Wind Turbines based on FieldMeasurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toft, Henrik Stensgaard; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2009-01-01

    extrapolation are presented. The first method is based on the same assumptions as the existing method but the statistical extrapolation is only performed for a limited number of mean wind speeds where the extreme load is likely to occur. For the second method the mean wind speeds are divided into storms which......The characteristic loads on wind turbines during operation are among others dependent on the mean wind speed, the turbulence intensity and the type and settings of the control system. These parameters must be taken into account in the assessment of the characteristic load. The characteristic load...... are assumed independent and the characteristic loads are determined from the extreme load in each storm....

  2. Assessing the continuity of the upland sediment cascade, fluvial geomorphic response of an upland river to an extreme flood event: Storm Desmond, Cumbria, UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joyce, Hannah; Hardy, Richard; Warburton, Jeff

    2017-04-01

    Hillslope erosion and accelerated lake sedimentation are often viewed as the source and main storage elements in the upland sediment cascade. However, the continuity of sediment transfer through intervening valley systems has rarely been evaluated during extreme events. Storm Desmond (4th - 6th December, 2015) produced record-breaking rainfall maximums in the UK: 341.4 mm rainfall was recorded in a 24 hour period at Honister Pass, Western Lake District, and 405 mm of rainfall was recorded in a 38 hour period at Thirlmere, central Lake District. The storm was the largest in a 150 year local rainfall series, and exceeded previous new records set in the 2005 and 2009 floods. During this exceptional event, rivers over topped flood defences, and caused damage to over 257 bridges, flooded over 5000 homes and businesses, and caused substantial geomorphic change along upland rivers. This research quantifies the geomorphic and sedimentary response to Storm Desmond along a regulated gravel-bed river: St John's Beck. St John's Beck (length 7.8 km) is a channelised low gradient river (0.005) downstream of Thirlmere Reservoir, which joins the River Greta, and flows through Keswick, where major flooding has occurred, before discharging into Bassenthwaite Lake. St John's Beck has a history of chronic sediment aggradation, erosion and reports of historic flooding date back to 1750. During Storm Desmond, riverbanks were eroded, coarse sediment was deposited across valuable farmland and access routes were destroyed, including a bridge and footpaths, disrupting local business. A sediment budget framework has been used to quantify geomorphic change and sedimentary characteristics of the event along St John's Beck. The volume and sediment size distribution of flood deposits, channel bars, tributary deposits, floodplain scour, riverbank erosion and in-channel bars were measured directly in the field and converted to mass using local estimates of coarse and fine sediment bulk densities

  3. Particle precipitation influence in the conductivity of the auroral ionosphere during magnetic storms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monreal M, R.; Llop, C.

    2002-01-01

    The study of the energy transfer between the different regions of the solar wind - magnetosphere - ionosphere system is probably the main goal in Solar-Terrestrial Physics. In the magnetosphere - ionosphere coupling, the ionosphere power dissipation is highly sensitive to the conductivity in such a way that a detailed knowledge of this property in the auroral and polar ionosphere is of great interest because it is important not only to determine Joule heat, but also for electric fields and currents models including the field aligned currents coupling the magnetosphere and ionosphere. The main sources of ionization and subsequent conductivity in the ionosphere are due to the emission of electromagnetic radiation and charged energetic particles from the sun. In this work it is analysed the influence of the precipitating electrons on the auroral ionosphere conductivity during magnetic storms. It is shown that the conductance values appear sub estimated for high levels of activity due to the saturation produced during very intense magnetic storms. (Author)

  4. Exploring the role of ionospheric drivers during the extreme solar minimum of 2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Klenzing

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available During the recent solar minimum, solar activity reached the lowest levels observed during the space age, resulting in a contracted atmosphere. This extremely low solar activity provides an unprecedented opportunity to understand the variability of the Earth's ambient ionosphere. The average E × B drifts measured by the Vector Electric Field Instrument (VEFI on the Communications/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS satellite during this period are found to have several differences from the expected climatology based on previous solar minima, including downward drifts in the early afternoon and a weak to non-existent pre-reversal enhancement. Using SAMI2 (Sami2 is Another Model of the Ionosphere as a computational engine, we investigate the effects of these electrodynamical changes as well as the contraction of the thermosphere and reduced EUV ionization on the ionosphere. The sensitivity of the simulations to wind models is also discussed. These modeled ionospheres are compared to the C/NOFS average topside ion density and composition and Formosa Satellite-3/Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate average NmF2 and hmF2. In all cases, incorporating the VEFI drift data significantly improves the model results when compared to both the C/NOFS density data and the F3/C GOX data. Changing the MSIS and EUVAC models produced changes in magnitude, but not morphology with respect to local time. The choice of wind model modulates the resulting topside density and composition, but only the use of the VEFI E × B drifts produces the observed post-sunset drop in the F peak.

  5. Two-dimensional numerical modeling of the cosmic ray storm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kadokura, A.; Nishida, A.

    1986-01-01

    A numerical model of the cosmic ray storm in the two-dimensional heliosphere is constructed incorporating the drift effect. We estimate the effect of a flare-associated interplanetary shock and the disturbed region behind it (characterized by enhancement in velocity and magnetic field, and decrease in mean free path) on the density and anisotropy of cosmic rays in the heliosphere. As the disturbance propagates outward, a density enhancement appears on the front side, and a density depression region is produced on the rear side. The effect of drift on the cosmic ray storm appears most clearly in the higher-latitude region. For the parallel (antiparallel) state of the solar magnetic field which corresponds to the pre(post-) 1980 period, the density in the higher-latitude region decreases (increases) before the shock arrival. The maximum density depression near the earth for the parallel state is greater than for the antiparallel state, and the energy spectrum of the density depression in percentage is softer for the parallel state than for the antiparallel state. Prior to the arrival of the shock, the phase of solar diurnal anisotropy begins to shift to the earlier hours, and its amplitude becomes greater for both polarity states. North-south anisotropy also becomes greater because of the enhanced drift for both polarity states

  6. Behaviour of the interplanetary and magnetospheric electric fields during very intense storms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Lei; Gendrin, R.; Higel, B.

    1982-01-01

    A study is made of the role which a positive (northward) component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bsub(z) may play in triggering large magnetic storms. The study is made over a 15 year period (1964-1978) by selecting storms with Ksub(p) >= 7 0 and which are preceded by a Sudden Commencement (Ssc). The correlation between the geomagnetic index Ksub(m) and the three-hourly averaged Bsub(z) is established both on a statistical basis and on a case-by-case study. Storms associated with Bsub(z) > 0 are found to be less intense than those associated with Bsub(z) < 0, but major storms can be also triggered by solar wind events associated with a northward IMF. The relation-ship between interplanetary electric field Esub(γ) and Ksub(m) is also given. By using this relation together with the one between Esub(M) and Ksub(m) which has been established in previous studies (where Esub(M) is the magnetospheric convection electric field), it is possible to study the transfer efficiency of the magnetosphere. It is found that the transfer coefficient ΔEsub(M)/ΔEsub(γ) is much smaller for intense storms than for moderate ones, the latter having been studied in a previous paper (Wu Lei et al., 1981)

  7. Learning Storm

    CERN Document Server

    Jain, Ankit

    2014-01-01

    If you are a Java developer who wants to enter into the world of real-time stream processing applications using Apache Storm, then this book is for you. No previous experience in Storm is required as this book starts from the basics. After finishing this book, you will be able to develop not-so-complex Storm applications.

  8. Deep Space Storm Shelter Simulation Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugan, Kathryn; Phojanamongkolkij, Nipa; Cerro, Jeffrey; Simon, Matthew

    2015-01-01

    Missions outside of Earth's magnetic field are impeded by the presence of radiation from galactic cosmic rays and solar particle events. To overcome this issue, NASA's Advanced Exploration Systems Radiation Works Storm Shelter (RadWorks) has been studying different radiation protective habitats to shield against the onset of solar particle event radiation. These habitats have the capability of protecting occupants by utilizing available materials such as food, water, brine, human waste, trash, and non-consumables to build short-term shelters. Protection comes from building a barrier with the materials that dampens the impact of the radiation on astronauts. The goal of this study is to develop a discrete event simulation, modeling a solar particle event and the building of a protective shelter. The main hallway location within a larger habitat similar to the International Space Station (ISS) is analyzed. The outputs from this model are: 1) the total area covered on the shelter by the different materials, 2) the amount of radiation the crew members receive, and 3) the amount of time for setting up the habitat during specific points in a mission given an event occurs.

  9. Modeling Flood Inundation Induced by River Flow and Storm Surges over a River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bo Chen

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Low-lying coastal regions and their populations are at risk during storm surge events and high freshwater discharges from upriver. An integrated storm surge and flood inundation modeling system was used to simulate storm surge and inundation in the Tsengwen River basin and the adjacent coastal area in southern Taiwan. A three-dimensional hydrodynamic model with an unstructured grid was used, which was driven by the tidal elevation at the open boundaries and freshwater discharge at the upriver boundary. The model was validated against the observed water levels for three typhoon events. The simulation results for the model were in reasonable agreement with the observational data. The model was then applied to investigate the effects of a storm surge, freshwater discharge, and a storm surge combined with freshwater discharge during an extreme typhoon event. The super Typhoon Haiyan (2013 was artificially shifted to hit Taiwan: the modeling results showed that the inundation area and depth would cause severe overbank flow and coastal flooding for a 200 year return period flow. A high-resolution grid model is essential for the accurate simulation of storm surges and inundation.

  10. Solar Weather Ice Monitoring Station (SWIMS). A low cost, extreme/harsh environment, solar powered, autonomous sensor data gathering and transmission system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chetty, S.; Field, L. A.

    2013-12-01

    The Arctic ocean's continuing decrease of summer-time ice is related to rapidly diminishing multi-year ice due to the effects of climate change. Ice911 Research aims to develop environmentally respectful materials that when deployed will increase the albedo, enhancing the formation and/preservation of multi-year ice. Small scale deployments using various materials have been done in Canada, California's Sierra Nevada Mountains and a pond in Minnesota to test the albedo performance and environmental characteristics of these materials. SWIMS is a sophisticated autonomous sensor system being developed to measure the albedo, weather, water temperature and other environmental parameters. The system (SWIMS) employs low cost, high accuracy/precision sensors, high resolution cameras, and an extreme environment command and data handling computer system using satellite and terrestrial wireless communication. The entire system is solar powered with redundant battery backup on a floating buoy platform engineered for low temperature (-40C) and high wind conditions. The system also incorporates tilt sensors, sonar based ice thickness sensors and a weather station. To keep the costs low, each SWIMS unit measures incoming and reflected radiation from the four quadrants around the buoy. This allows data from four sets of sensors, cameras, weather station, water temperature probe to be collected and transmitted by a single on-board solar powered computer. This presentation covers the technical, logistical and cost challenges in designing, developing and deploying these stations in remote, extreme environments. Image captured by camera #3 of setting sun on the SWIMS station One of the images captured by SWIMS Camera #4

  11. Origin of solar radio waves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olmr, J.

    1977-01-01

    Solar radiowave radiation amounts to about 10 -7 of the total solar radiation. The solar atmosphere emits radiation of different wavelengths from a fraction of nanometer to kilometer waves. The solar radiowaves are of thermal origin and except for neutral hydrogen emission and solid body radio emission their emission always results from free electrons. The radiowave radiation active components were classified in several types, such as noise storms, flashes, flares, continuum, and flashes lasting for several minutes. The respective types are discussed and their origins shown. The mechanisms are described permitting the formation of radio waves of nonthermal origin, i.e., plasma oscillations, gyromagnetic emission, synchrotron and Cherenkov radiations. (J.P.)

  12. Factors controlling storm impacts on coastal barriers and beaches - A preliminary basis for near real-time forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, R.A.

    2002-01-01

    Analysis of ground conditions and meteorological and oceanographic parameters for some of the most severe Atlantic and Gulf Coast storms in the U.S. reveals the primary factors affecting morphological storm responses of beaches and barrier islands. The principal controlling factors are storm characteristics, geographic position relative to storm path, timing of storm events, duration of wave exposure, wind stress, degree of flow confinement, antecedent topography and geologic framework, sediment textures, vegetative cover, and type and density of coastal development. A classification of commonly observed storm responses demonstrates the sequential interrelations among (1) land elevations, (2) water elevations in the ocean and adjacent lagoon (if present), and (3) stages of rising water during the storm. The predictable coastal responses, in relative order from high frequency beach erosion to low frequency barrier inundation, include: beach erosion, berm migration, dune erosion, washover terrace construction, perched fan deposition, sheetwash, washover channel incision, washout formation, and forced and unforced ebb flow. Near real-time forecasting of expected storm impacts is possible if the following information is available for the coast: a detailed morphological and topographic characterization, accurate storm-surge and wave-runup models, the real-time reporting of storm parameters, accurate forecasts of the storm position relative to a particular coastal segment, and a conceptual model of geological processes that encompasses observed morphological changes caused by extreme storms.

  13. Index for Predicting Insurance Claims from Wind Storms with an Application in France.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mornet, Alexandre; Opitz, Thomas; Luzi, Michel; Loisel, Stéphane

    2015-11-01

    For insurance companies, wind storms represent a main source of volatility, leading to potentially huge aggregated claim amounts. In this article, we compare different constructions of a storm index allowing us to assess the economic impact of storms on an insurance portfolio by exploiting information from historical wind speed data. Contrary to historical insurance portfolio data, meteorological variables show fewer nonstationarities between years and are easily available with long observation records; hence, they represent a valuable source of additional information for insurers if the relation between observations of claims and wind speeds can be revealed. Since standard correlation measures between raw wind speeds and insurance claims are weak, a storm index focusing on high wind speeds can afford better information. A storm index approach has been applied to yearly aggregated claim amounts in Germany with promising results. Using historical meteorological and insurance data, we assess the consistency of the proposed index constructions with respect to various parameters and weights. Moreover, we are able to place the major insurance events since 1998 on a broader horizon beyond 40 years. Our approach provides a meteorological justification for calculating the return periods of extreme-storm-related insurance events whose magnitude has rarely been reached. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  14. SuperDARN observations of an unusually contracted ionospheric convection pattern during the recent deep solar minimum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imber, S. M.; Milan, S. E.; Lester, M.

    2012-04-01

    We present a long term study, from 1995 - 2011, of the latitude of the Heppner-Maynard Boundary (HMB) determined using the northern hemisphere SuperDARN radars. The HMB represents the equatorward extent of ionospheric convection. We find that the average latitude of the HMB at midnight is 61° magnetic latitude during the solar maximum of 2003, but it moves significantly poleward during solar minimum, averaging 64° latitude during 1996, and 68° during 2010. This poleward motion is observed despite the increasing number of low latitude radars built in recent years as part of the StormDARN network, and so is not an artefact of data coverage. We believe that the recent extreme solar minimum lead to an average HMB location that was further poleward than previous solar cycles. We also calculated the open-closed field line boundary (OCB) from auroral images during the years 2000-2002 and find that on average the HMB is located equatorward of the OCB by ~6°. We suggest that the HMB may be a useful proxy for the OCB when global auroral images are not available.

  15. Adaptation strategies of endolithic chlorophototrophs to survive the hyperarid and extreme solar radiation environment of the Atacama Desert

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacek eWierzchos

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The Atacama Desert, northern Chile, is one of the driest deserts on Earth and, as such, a natural laboratory to explore the limits of life and the strategies evolved by microorganisms to adapt to extreme environments. Here we report the exceptional adaptation strategies of chlorophototrophic and eukaryotic algae, and chlorophototrophic and prokaryotic cyanobacteria to the hyperarid and extremely high solar radiation conditions occurring in this desert. Our approach combined several microscopy techniques, spectroscopic analytical methods, and molecular analyses. We found that the major adaptation strategy was to avoid the extreme environmental conditions by colonizing cryptoendolithic, as well as, hypoendolithic habitats within gypsum deposits. The cryptoendolithic colonization occurred a few millimeters beneath the gypsum surface and showed a succession of organized horizons of algae and cyanobacteria, which has never been reported for endolithic microbial communities. The presence of cyanobacteria beneath the algal layer, in close contact with sepiolite inclusions, and their hypoendolithic colonization suggest that occasional liquid water might persist within these sub-microhabitats. We also identified the presence of abundant carotenoids in the upper cryptoendolithic algal habitat and scytonemin in the cyanobacteria hypoendolithic habitat. This study illustrates that successful lithobiontic microbial colonization at the limit for microbial life is the result of a combination of adaptive strategies to avoid excess solar irradiance and extreme evapotranspiration rates, taking advantage of the complex structural and mineralogical characteristics of gypsum deposits – conceptually called rock’s habitable architecture. Additionally self-protection by synthesis and accumulation of secondary metabolites likely produces a shielding effect that prevents photoinhibition and lethal photooxidative damage to the chlorophototrophs, representing another

  16. Verification of high-speed solar wind stream forecasts using operational solar wind models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reiss, Martin A.; Temmer, Manuela; Veronig, Astrid M.

    2016-01-01

    and the background solar wind conditions. We found that both solar wind models are capable of predicting the large-scale features of the observed solar wind speed (root-mean-square error, RMSE ≈100 km/s) but tend to either overestimate (ESWF) or underestimate (WSA) the number of high-speed solar wind streams (threat......High-speed solar wind streams emanating from coronal holes are frequently impinging on the Earth's magnetosphere causing recurrent, medium-level geomagnetic storm activity. Modeling high-speed solar wind streams is thus an essential element of successful space weather forecasting. Here we evaluate...... high-speed stream forecasts made by the empirical solar wind forecast (ESWF) and the semiempirical Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model based on the in situ plasma measurements from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft for the years 2011 to 2014. While the ESWF makes use of an empirical relation...

  17. The selective dynamical downscaling method for extreme-wind atlases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Badger, Jake; Hahmann, Andrea N.

    2012-01-01

    A selective dynamical downscaling method is developed to obtain extreme-wind atlases for large areas. The method is general, efficient and flexible. The method consists of three steps: (i) identifying storm episodes for a particular area, (ii) downscaling of the storms using mesoscale modelling...... and (iii) post-processing. The post-processing generalizes the winds from the mesoscale modelling to standard conditions, i.e. 10-m height over a homogeneous surface with roughness length of 5 cm. The generalized winds are then used to calculate the 50-year wind using the annual maximum method for each...... mesoscale grid point. The generalization of the mesoscale winds through the post-processing provides a framework for data validation and for applying further the mesoscale extreme winds at specific places using microscale modelling. The results are compared with measurements from two areas with different...

  18. A Study of the Solar Wind-Magnetosphere Coupling Using Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jian-Guo; Lundstedt, Henrik

    1996-12-01

    The interaction between solar wind plasma and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and Earth's magnetosphere induces geomagnetic activity. Geomagnetic storms can cause many adverse effects on technical systems in space and on the Earth. It is therefore of great significance to accurately predict geomagnetic activity so as to minimize the amount of disruption to these operational systems and to allow them to work as efficiently as possible. Dynamic neural networks are powerful in modeling the dynamics encoded in time series of data. In this study, we use partially recurrent neural networks to study the solar wind-magnetosphere coupling by predicting geomagnetic storms (as measured by the Dstindex) from solar wind measurements. The solar wind, the IMF and the geomagnetic index Dst data are hourly averaged and read from the National Space Science Data Center's OMNI database. We selected these data from the period 1963 to 1992, which cover 10552h and contain storm time periods 9552h and quiet time periods 1000h. The data are then categorized into three data sets: a training set (6634h), across-validation set (1962h), and a test set (1956h). The validation set is used to determine where the training should be stopped whereas the test set is used for neural networks to get the generalization capability (the out-of-sample performance). Based on the correlation analysis between the Dst index and various solar wind parameters (including various combinations of solar wind parameters), the best coupling functions can be found from the out-of-sample performance of trained neural networks. The coupling functions found are then used to forecast geomagnetic storms one to several hours in advance. The comparisons are made on iterating the single-step prediction several times and on making a non iterated, direct prediction. Thus, we will present the best solar wind-magnetosphere coupling functions and the corresponding prediction results. Interesting Links: Lund Space Weather and AI

  19. Geomagnetic storm effects on GPS based navigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. V. S. Rama Rao

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The energetic events on the sun, solar wind and subsequent effects on the Earth's geomagnetic field and upper atmosphere (ionosphere comprise space weather. Modern navigation systems that use radio-wave signals, reflecting from or propagating through the ionosphere as a means of determining range or distance, are vulnerable to a variety of effects that can degrade the performance of the navigational systems. In particular, the Global Positioning System (GPS that uses a constellation of earth orbiting satellites are affected due to the space weather phenomena.

    Studies made during two successive geomagnetic storms that occurred during the period from 8 to 12 November 2004, have clearly revealed the adverse affects on the GPS range delay as inferred from the Total Electron Content (TEC measurements made from a chain of seven dual frequency GPS receivers installed in the Indian sector. Significant increases in TEC at the Equatorial Ionization anomaly crest region are observed, resulting in increased range delay during the periods of the storm activity. Further, the storm time rapid changes occurring in TEC resulted in a number of phase slips in the GPS signal compared to those on quiet days. These phase slips often result in the loss of lock of the GPS receivers, similar to those that occur during strong(>10 dB L-band scintillation events, adversely affecting the GPS based navigation.

  20. Geomagnetically Induced Currents Around the World During the 17 March 2015 Storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, B. A.; Yizengaw, E.; Pradipta, R.; Weygand, J. M.; Piersanti, M.; Pulkkinen, Antti Aleksi; Moldwin, M. B.; Norman, R.; Zhang, K.

    2016-01-01

    Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) represent a significant space weather issue for power grid and pipeline infrastructure, particularly during severe geomagnetic storms. In this study, magnetometer data collected from around the world are analyzed to investigate the GICs caused by the 2015 St. Patricks Day storm. While significant GIC activity in the high-latitude regions due to storm time substorm activity is shown for this event, enhanced GIC activity was also measured at two equatorial stations in the American and Southeast Asian sectors. This equatorial GIC activity is closely examined, and it is shown that it is present both during the arrival of the interplanetary shock at the storm sudden commencement (SSC) in Southeast Asia and during the main phase of the storm approximately 10 h later in South America. The SSC caused magnetic field variations at the equator in Southeast Asia that were twice the magnitude of those observed only a few degrees to the north, strongly indicating that the equatorial electrojet (EEJ) played a significant role. The large equatorial magnetic field variations measured in South America are also examined, and the coincident solar wind data are used to investigate the causes of the sudden changes in the EEJ approximately 10 h into the storm. From this analysis it is concluded that sudden magnetopause current increases due to increases in the solarwind dynamic pressure, and the sudden changes in the resultant magnetospheric and ionospheric current systems, are the primary drivers of equatorial GICs.

  1. Thermospheric mass density variations during geomagnetic storms and a prediction model based on the merging electric field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, R.; Lühr, H.; Doornbos, E.; Ma, S.-Y.

    2010-09-01

    With the help of four years (2002-2005) of CHAMP accelerometer data we have investigated the dependence of low and mid latitude thermospheric density on the merging electric field, Em, during major magnetic storms. Altogether 30 intensive storm events (Dstmineffect in order to obtain good results for magnetic storms of all activity levels. The memory effect of the thermosphere is accounted for by a weighted integration of Em over the past 3 h. In addition, a lag time of the mass density response to solar wind input of 0 to 4.5 h depending on latitude and local time is considered. A linear model using the preconditioned color: #000;">Em as main controlling parameter for predicting mass density changes during magnetic storms is developed: ρ=0.5 color: #000;">Em + ρamb, where ρamb is based on the mean density during the quiet day before the storm. We show that this simple relation predicts all storm-induced mass density variations at CHAMP altitude fairly well especially if orbital averages are considered.

  2. Study of Extreme Weather Hazards Using GRACE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Y.; Shum, C. K.; Shang, K.; Guo, J.; Schwartz, F. W.; Akyılmaz, O.; Feng, W.; Forootan, E.; LIU, G.; Zhong, M.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme weather events significantly affect humans and economics in the region. Synoptic and timely observations of these abrupt meteoro-hydrological hazards would benefit disaster management and improve storm forecasting. Contemporary processing of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) twin-satellite data at monthly sampling would miss or under-sample abrupt events such as large ice storms with durations much shorter than a month. Here, we employ the energy balance approach processing GRACE Level 1 data, which is flexible to allow sub-monthly solutions at daily sampling covering the genesis and evolution of large winter storms. We studied the 2008 Southeast China snow and ice storm, which lasted from mid-January to mid-February, and affected 21 out of China's 34 provinces with heavy snows, ice and freezing rains, caused extensive damage and transportation disruption, displaced nearly 1.7 million people, and claimed 129 lives. We also investigated the devastating North America blizzard which occurred during late January through mid-February 2010. The massive accumulations of snow and ice in both storms slightly changed the gravity field of the Earth, and were sensitive to the GRACE satellite measurements, manifested as transient terrestrial water storage (TWS) change. We compared our solutions with other available high temporal frequency GRACE solutions. The GRACE observed total storage change for both storms are in good agreement with in situ precipitation measurements, and with GRACE observations clearly show the complex genesis, decline, strengthening and melting phases depicting the detailed evolution of these example large snow storms.

  3. The Sheath Transport Observer for the Redistribution of Mass (STORM) Image

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuntz, Kip; Collier, Michael; Sibeck, David G.; Porter, F. Scott; Carter, J. A.; Cravens, Thomas; Omidi, N.; Robertson, Ina; Sembay, S.; Snowden, Steven L.

    2008-01-01

    All of the solar wind energy that powers magnetospheric processes passes through the magnetosheath and magnetopause. Global images of the magnetosheath and magnetopause boundary layers will resolve longstanding controversy surrounding fundamental phenomena that occur at the magnetopause and provide information needed to improve operational space weather models. Recent developments showing that soft X-rays (0.15-1 keV) result from high charge state solar wind ions undergoing charge exchange recombination through collisions with exospheric neutral atoms has led to the realization that soft X-ray imaging can provide global maps of the high-density shocked solar wind within the magnetosheath and cusps, regions lying between the lower density solar wind and magnetosphere. We discuss an instrument concept called the Sheath Transport Observer for the Redistribution of Mass (STORM), an X-ray imager suitable for simultaneously imaging the dayside magnetosheath, the magnetopause boundary layers, and the cusps.

  4. The Sheath Transport Observer for the Redistribution of Mass (STORM) Imager

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collier, Michael R.; Sibeck, David G.; Porter, F. Scott; Burch, J.; Carter, J. A.; Cravens, Thomas; Kuntz, Kip; Omidi, N.; Read, A.; Robertson, Ina; hide

    2010-01-01

    All of the solar wind energy that powers magnetospheric processes passes through the magnetosheath and magnetopause. Global images of the magnetosheath and magnetopause boundary layers will resolve longstanding controversies surrounding fundamental phenomena that occur at the magnetopause and provide information needed to improve operational space weather models. Recent developments showing that soft X-rays (0.15-1 keV) result from high charge state solar wind ions undergoing charge exchange recombination through collisions with exospheric neutral atoms has led to the realization that soft X-ray imaging can provide global maps of the high-density shocked solar wind within the magnetosheath and cusps, regions lying between the lower density solar wind and magnetosphere. We discuss an instrument concept called the Sheath Transport Observer for the Redistribution of Mass (STORM), an X-ray imager suitable for simultaneously imaging the dayside magnetosheath, the magnetopause boundary layers, and the cusps.

  5. Impact of storms on coastlines: preparing for the future without forgetting the past? Examples from European coastlines using a Storm Impact Database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciavola, Paolo; Garnier, Emmanuel; Ferreira, Oscar; Spencer, Thomas; Armaroli, Clara

    2017-04-01

    Severe storms have historically affected many European coastlines but the impact of each storm has been evaluated in different ways in different countries, often using local socio-economic impact criteria (e.g. loss of lives and damage to properties). Although the Xynthia (2010) storm, Atlantic coast of France, was the largest coastal disaster of the last 50 years, similar events have previously impacted Europe. The 1953 storm surge in the southern North Sea, resulted in over 2000 deaths and extensive flooding and was the catalyst for post WWII improvements in flood defences and storm early warning systems. On a longer timescale, the very extreme storm of 1634 AD re-configured Wadden Sea coastlines, accompanied by thousands of deaths. Establishing patterns of coastal risk and vulnerability is greatly helped by the use of historical sources, as these allow the development of more complete time series of storm events and their impacts. The work to be presented was supported by the EU RISC-KIT (Resilience-Increasing Strategies for Coasts - toolKIT) Project. RISC-KIT (http://www.risckit.eu/np4/home.html) is a EU FP7 Collaborative project that has developed methods, tools and management approaches to reduce risk and increase resilience to low frequency, high-impact hydro-meteorological events in the coastal zone. These products will enhance forecasting, prediction and early warning capabilities, improve the assessment of long-term coastal risk and optimize the mix of prevention, mitigation and preparedness measures. We analyse historical large-scale events occurred from The Middle Ages to the 1960s at the case study sites of North Norfolk Coast (UK), the Charente-Maritime and Vendée coast (France), the Cinque Terre-Liguria (Italy), the Emilia-Romagna coast (Italy), and the Ria Formosa coast (Portugal). The work presented here uses a database of events built by the project, examining records for the last 300 years, including the characteristics of the storms as well as

  6. Different magnetospheric modes: solar wind driving and coupling efficiency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Partamies

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available This study describes a systematic statistical comparison of isolated non-storm substorms, steady magnetospheric convection (SMC intervals and sawtooth events. The number of events is approximately the same in each group and the data are taken from about the same years to avoid biasing by different solar cycle phase. The very same superposed epoch analysis is performed for each event group to show the characteristics of ground-based indices (AL, PCN, PC potential, particle injection at the geostationary orbit and the solar wind and IMF parameters. We show that the monthly occurrence of sawtooth events and isolated non-stormtime substorms closely follows maxima of the geomagnetic activity at (or close to the equinoxes. The most strongly solar wind driven event type, sawtooth events, is the least efficient in coupling the solar wind energy to the auroral ionosphere, while SMC periods are associated with the highest coupling ratio (AL/EY. Furthermore, solar wind speed seems to play a key role in determining the type of activity in the magnetosphere. Slow solar wind is capable of maintaining steady convection. During fast solar wind streams the magnetosphere responds with loading–unloading cycles, represented by substorms during moderately active conditions and sawtooth events (or other storm-time activations during geomagnetically active conditions.

  7. Relativistic electron acceleration during HILDCAA events: are precursor CIR magnetic storms important?

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hajra, R.; Tsurutani, B. T.; Echer, E.; Gonzalez, W. D.; Brum, Ch. G. M.; Antunes Vieira, L. E.; Santolík, Ondřej

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 67, Article Number 109 (2015), 109/1-109/11 ISSN 1880-5981 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LH12231 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : HILDCAAs * high-speed streams * CIRs * chorus plasma waves * radiation belt * magnetospheric relativistic electrons * solar wind * geomagnetic storms Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.871, year: 2015

  8. Coastal Storm Surge Analysis: Storm Forcing. Report 3. Intermediate Submission No. 1.3

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-07-01

    The storm surge study considers both tropical storms and extratropical cyclones for determination of return period storm surge elevations. The...Appendix B: Extratropical Cyclone Selection in Support of FEMA Region III Storm Surge Modeling...stations applied in the storm selection process. ............................................. 56  Table B2. Extratropical cyclones selected from the

  9. Adriatic storm surges and related cross-basin sea-level slope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Međugorac, Iva; Orlić, Mirko; Janeković, Ivica; Pasarić, Zoran; Pasarić, Miroslava

    2018-05-01

    Storm surges pose a severe threat to the northernmost cities of the Adriatic coast, with Venice being most prone to flooding. It has been noted that some flooding episodes cause significantly different effects along the eastern and western Adriatic coasts, with indications that the difference is related to cross-basin sea-level slope. The present study aims to determine specific atmospheric conditions under which the slope develops and to explore connection with increased sea level along the two coastlines. The analysis is based on sea-level time series recorded at Venice and Bakar over the 1984-2014 interval, from which 38 most intensive storm-surge episodes were selected, and their meteorological backgrounds (ERA-Interim) were studied. The obtained sea-level extremes were grouped into three categories according to their cross-basin sea-level slope: storm surges that slope strongly westward (W type), those that slope eastward (E type) and ordinary storm surges (O type). Results show that the slope is controlled by wind action only, specifically, by the wind component towards a particular coast and by the cross-basin shear of along-basin wind. Meteorological fields were used to force an oceanographic numerical model in order to confirm the empirically established connection between the atmospheric forcing and the slope. Finally, it has been found that the intensity of storm surges along a particular Adriatic coast is determined by an interplay of sea-level slopes in the along and cross-basin directions.

  10. Study of solar features causing GMSs with 250γ H 400γ

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The effect of solar features on geospheric conditions leading to geomagnetic storms (GMSs) with planetary index, p ≥ 20 and the range of horizontal component of the Earth's magnetic field such that 250 < < 400 has been investigated using interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), solar wind plasma (SWP) and solar ...

  11. Extreme Learning Machine and Moving Least Square Regression Based Solar Panel Vision Inspection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heng Liu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, learning based machine intelligence has aroused a lot of attention across science and engineering. Particularly in the field of automatic industry inspection, the machine learning based vision inspection plays a more and more important role in defect identification and feature extraction. Through learning from image samples, many features of industry objects, such as shapes, positions, and orientations angles, can be obtained and then can be well utilized to determine whether there is defect or not. However, the robustness and the quickness are not easily achieved in such inspection way. In this work, for solar panel vision inspection, we present an extreme learning machine (ELM and moving least square regression based approach to identify solder joint defect and detect the panel position. Firstly, histogram peaks distribution (HPD and fractional calculus are applied for image preprocessing. Then an ELM-based defective solder joints identification is discussed in detail. Finally, moving least square regression (MLSR algorithm is introduced for solar panel position determination. Experimental results and comparisons show that the proposed ELM and MLSR based inspection method is efficient not only in detection accuracy but also in processing speed.

  12. Effect of Tide Elevation on Extratropical Storm Surge in Northwest Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keshtpoor, M.; Carnacina, I.; Yablonsky, R. M.

    2016-12-01

    Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are the major storm surge-generating meteorological events in northwest Europe. The total water level increase induced by these ETCs is significantly influenced by the local tidal range, which exceeds 8 meters along the southwestern UK coastline. In particular, a surge-generating ETC during high tide may put coastal assets and infrastructure in risk. Also, during low tide, the risk of surge induced by extreme ETC events is diminished. Here, the effect of tidal elevation on storm surge is investigated at 196 tide gauges in northwest Europe. A numerical, hydrodynamic model was developed using Delft3D-FM framework to simulate the coastal hydrodynamics during ETCs. Then, 1750 historical events were simulated to investigate the pattern of coastal inundation. Results suggest that in areas with a large tidal range ( 8 meters) and during the time period surrounding high or low tide, the pattern of coastal hydrodynamics is governed by tide and not storm surge. This result is most evident near the English Channel and Bristol Channel, where low frequency maximum water levels are observed when storm surge is combined with high tide. In contrast, near the tidal phase reversal, coastal hydrodynamics responds primarily to the storm surge, and low frequency maximum water elevation largely depends on the surge. In the areas with a small tidal range, ETC strength determines the pattern of coastal inundation.

  13. On the Importance of the Flare's Late Phase for the Solar Extreme Ultraviolet Irradiance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woods, Thomas N.; Eparvier, Frank; Jones, Andrew R.; Hock, Rachel; Chamberlin, Phillip C.; Klimchuk, James A.; Didkovsky, Leonid; Judge, Darrell; Mariska, John; Bailey, Scott; hide

    2011-01-01

    The new solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance observations from NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) have revealed a new class of solar flares that are referred to as late phase flares. These flares are characterized by the hot 2-5 MK coronal emissions (e.g., Fe XVI 33.5 nm) showing large secondary peaks that appear many minutes to hours after an eruptive flare event. In contrast, the cool 0.7-1.5 MK coronal emissions (e.g., Fe IX 17.1 nm) usually dim immediately after the flare onset and do not recover until after the delayed second peak of the hot coronal emissions. We refer to this period of 1-5 hours after the fl amrea sin phase as the late phase, and this late phase is uniquely different than long duration flares associated with 2-ribbon flares or large filament eruptions. Our analysis of the late phase flare events indicates that the late phase involves hot coronal loops near the flaring region, not directly related to the original flaring loop system but rather with the higher post-eruption fields. Another finding is that space weather applications concerning Earth s ionosphere and thermosphere need to consider these late phase flares because they can enhance the total EUV irradiance flare variation by a factor of 2 when the late phase contribution is included.

  14. Decreasing the stable trapping region during geomagnetic storm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mal'tsev, Yu.P.; Feshchenko, E.Yu.

    1998-01-01

    Within the frameworks of the magnetic field model, depending on the solar wind pressure, the B = B s (B s is the magnetic field in the undersolar point) contour behaviour in the equatorial plane is calculated. The boundary of stable trapping in the quiet time is at the distance of 10-11 R E by day and ∼ 7 R E by night. During strong storms this distance may be decreased up 4-5 R E . The calculation results coincide satisfactorily with satellite measurements

  15. New insights into the vertical structure of the September 2015 dust storm employing eight ceilometers and auxiliary measurements over Israel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uzan, Leenes; Egert, Smadar; Alpert, Pinhas

    2018-03-01

    On 7 September 2015, an unprecedented and unexceptional extreme dust storm struck the eastern Mediterranean (EM) basin. Here, we provide an overview of the previous studies and describe the dust plume evolution over a relatively small area, i.e., Israel. This study presents vertical profiles provided by an array of eight ceilometers covering the Israeli shore, inland and mountain regions. We employ multiple tools including spectral radiometers (Aerosol Robotic Network - AERONET), ground particulate matter concentrations, satellite images, global/diffuse/direct solar radiation measurements and radiosonde profiles. The main findings reveal that the dust plume penetrated Israel on 7 September from the northeast in a downward motion to southwest. On 8 September, the lower level of the dust plume reached 200 m above ground level, generating aerosol optical depth (AOD) above 3 and extreme ground particulate matter concentrations up to ˜ 10 000 µm m-3. A most interesting feature on 8 September was the very high variability in the surface solar radiation in the range of 200-600 W m-2 (22 sites) over just a distance of several hundred kilometers in spite of the thick dust layer above. Furthermore, 8 September shows the lowest radiation levels for this event. On the following day, the surface solar radiation increased, thus enabling a late (between 11:00 and 12:00 UTC) sea breeze development mainly in the coastal zone associated with a creation of a narrow dust layer detached from the ground. On 10 September, the AOD values started to drop down to ˜ 1.5, and the surface concentrations of particulate matter decreased as well as the ceilometers' aerosol indications (signal counts) although Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) revealed an upper dust layer remained.

  16. Book review: Extreme ocean waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geist, Eric L.

    2011-01-01

    ‘‘Extreme Ocean Waves’’ is a collection of ten papers edited by Efim Pelinovsky and Christian Kharif that followed the April 2007 meeting of the General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union. A note on terminology: extreme waves in this volume broadly encompass different types of waves, includ- ing deep-water and shallow-water rogue waves (alternatively termed freak waves), storm surges from cyclones, and internal waves. Other types of waves such as tsunamis or rissaga (meteotsunamis) are not discussed in this volume. It is generally implied that ‘‘extreme’’ has a statistical connotation relative to the average or significant wave height specific to each type of wave. Throughout the book, in fact, the reader will find a combination of theoretical and statistical/ empirical treatment necessary for the complete examination of this subject. In the introduction, the editors underscore the importance of studying extreme waves, documenting several dramatic instances of damaging extreme waves that occurred in 2007. 

  17. Grand scheme for solar-terrestrial research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Intriligator, D.S.

    1985-01-01

    The study of solar wind and its interaction with magnetic fields and electrical currents is examined. The effects of magnetic storms caused by solar wind interaction with magnetic fields in the magnetosphere and ionosphere are described. The effect of magnetospheric plasma processes on spacecraft operations and the operation of ground-based systems are explained. The development of an International Solar Terrestrial Physics program, which will be designed to place diagnostic experiments on a collection of spacecraft positioned near space is discussed; the components of the program are described

  18. Interfacial Engineering and Charge Carrier Dynamics in Extremely Thin Absorber Solar Cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edley, Michael

    Photovoltaic energy is a clean and renewable source of electricity; however, it faces resistance to widespread use due to cost. Nanostructuring decouples constraints related to light absorption and charge separation, potentially reducing cost by allowing a wider variety of processing techniques and materials to be used. However, the large interfacial areas also cause an increased dark current which negatively affects cell efficiency. This work focuses on extremely thin absorber (ETA) solar cells that used a ZnO nanowire array as a scaffold for an extremely thin CdSe absorber layer. Photoexcited electrons generated in the CdSe absorber are transferred to the ZnO layer, while photogenerated holes are transferred to the liquid electrolyte. The transfer of photoexcited carriers to their transport layer competes with bulk recombination in the absorber layer. After charge separation, transport of charge carriers to their respective contacts must occur faster than interfacial recombination for efficient collection. Charge separation and collection depend sensitively on the dimensions of the materials as well as their interfaces. We demonstrated that an optimal absorber thickness can balance light absorption and charge separation. By treating the ZnO/CdSe interface with a CdS buffer layer, we were able to improve the Voc and fill factor, increasing the ETA cell's efficiency from 0.53% to 1.34%, which is higher than that achievable using planar films of the same material. We have gained additional insight into designing ETA cells through the use of dynamic measurements. Ultrafast transient absorption spectroscopy revealed that characteristic times for electron injection from CdSe to ZnO are less than 1 ps. Electron injection is rapid compared to the 2 ns bulk lifetime in CdSe. Optoelectronic measurements such as transient photocurrent/photovoltage and electrochemical impedance spectroscopy were applied to study the processes of charge transport and interfacial recombination

  19. Using 18th century storm-surge data from the Dutch Coast to improve the confidence in flood-risk estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Baart

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available For the design of cost-effective coastal defence a precise estimate is needed of the 1/10 000 per year storm surge. A more precise estimate requires more observations. Therefore, the three greatest storm surges that hit the northern part of the Holland Coast in the 18th century are reconstructed. The reconstructions are based on paintings, drawings, written records and shell deposits that have recently appeared. The storm-surge levels of these storms have been estimated using numerical modelling of the coastal processes. Here we show how these reconstructions can be used in combination with extreme value statistics to give a more confident estimate of low probability events.

  20. Latitudinal variation of the polar cusp during a geomagnetic storm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meng, C.

    1982-01-01

    Large amplitude latitudinal variation of the polar cusp position was observed during the intense geomagnetic storm of 15--16 February 1980. The observation of the polar cusp, identified as the region of intense but extremely soft electron precipitation, was made by two nearly noon-midnight orbit DMSP satellites over both northern and southern hemispheres. The latitudinal shift of the polar cusp is observed to be related to the intensity variation of the ring current indicated by the hourly Dst values. The polar cusp region moved from its normal location at approx.76 0 gm lat down to approx.62 0 gm lat at the peak of this storm. This movement took about 5 hours and was detected over both hemispheres. A drastic variation in the width of the cusp region was also observed; it is very narrow (approx.1 0 ) during the equatorial shift and expands to > or approx. =5 0 during the poleward recovery. Variation of the polar cusp latitude with that of the Dst index was also seen during the period before the intense storm

  1. Investigating the Scaling Properties of Extreme Rainfall Depth ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Investigating the Scaling Properties of Extreme Rainfall Depth Series in Oromia Regional State, Ethiopia. ... Science, Technology and Arts Research Journal ... for storm duration ranging from 0.5 to 24 hr observed at network of rain gauges sited in Oromia regional state were analyzed using an approach based on moments.

  2. Diagnosis and Modeling of the Explosive Development of Winter Storms: Sensitivity to PBL Schemes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Pradhan, Prabodha K.

    2014-05-01

    The correct representation of extreme windstorms in regional models is of great importance for impact studies of climate change. The Iberian Peninsula has recently witnessed major damage from winter extratropical intense cyclones like Klaus (January 2009), Xynthia (February 2010) and Gong (January 2013) which formed over the mid-Atlantic, experienced explosive intensification while travelling eastwards at lower latitudes than usual [Liberato et al. 2011; 2013]. In this paper the explosive development of these storms is simulated by the advanced mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF v 3.4.1), initialized with NCEP Final Analysis (FNL) data as initial and lateral boundary conditions (boundary conditions updated in every 3 hours intervals). The simulation experiments are conducted with two domains, a coarser (25km) and nested (8.333km), covering the entire North Atlantic and Iberian Peninsula region. The characteristics of these storms (e.g. wind speed, precipitation) are studied from WRF model and compared with multiple observations. In this context simulations with different Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) schemes are performed. This approach aims at understanding which mechanisms favor the explosive intensification of these storms at a lower than usual latitudes, thus improving the knowledge of atmospheric dynamics (including small-scale processes) on controlling the life cycle of midlatitude extreme storms and contributing to the improvement in predictability and in our ability to forecast storms' impacts over Iberian Peninsula. Acknowledgments: This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER- 019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010). References: Liberato M.L.R., J.G. Pinto, I.F. Trigo, R.M. Trigo (2011) Klaus - an

  3. Solar Physics at Evergreen: Solar Dynamo and Chromospheric MHD

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zita, E. J.; Maxwell, J.; Song, N.; Dikpati, M.

    2006-12-01

    We describe our five year old solar physics research program at The Evergreen State College. Famed for its cloudy skies, the Pacific Northwest is an ideal location for theoretical and remote solar physics research activities. Why does the Sun's magnetic field flip polarity every 11 years or so? How does this contribute to the magnetic storms Earth experiences when the Sun's field reverses? Why is the temperature in the Sun's upper atmosphere millions of degrees higher than the Sun's surface temperature? How do magnetic waves transport energy in the Sun’s chromosphere and the Earth’s atmosphere? How does solar variability affect climate change? Faculty and undergraduates investigate questions such as these in collaboration with the High Altitude Observatory (HAO) at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder. We will describe successful student research projects, logistics of remote computing, and our current physics investigations into (1) the solar dynamo and (2) chromospheric magnetohydrodynamics.

  4. Solar Variability and Planetary Climates

    CERN Document Server

    Calisesi, Y; Gray, L; Langen, J; Lockwood, M

    2007-01-01

    Variations in solar activity, as revealed by variations in the number of sunspots, have been observed since ancient times. To what extent changes in the solar output may affect planetary climates, though, remains today more than ever a subject of controversy. In 2000, the SSSI volume on Solar Variability and Climate reviewed the to-date understanding of the physics of solar variability and of the associated climate response. The present volume on Solar Variability and Planetary Climates provides an overview of recent advances in this field, with particular focus at the Earth's middle and lower atmosphere. The book structure mirrors that of the ISSI workshop held in Bern in June 2005, the collection of invited workshop contributions and of complementary introductory papers synthesizing the current understanding in key research areas such as middle atmospheric processes, stratosphere-troposphere dynamical coupling, tropospheric aerosols chemistry, solar storm influences, solar variability physics, and terrestri...

  5. Tide-surge historical assessment of extreme water levels for the St. Johns River: 1928-2017

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacopoulos, Peter

    2017-10-01

    An historical storm population is developed for the St. Johns River, located in northeast Florida-US east coast, via extreme value assessment of an 89-year-long record of hourly water-level data. Storm surge extrema and the corresponding (independent) storm systems are extracted from the historical record as well as the linear and nonlinear trends of mean sea level. Peaks-over-threshold analysis reveals the top 16 most-impactful (storm surge) systems in the general return-period range of 1-100 years. Hurricane Matthew (2016) broke the record with a new absolute maximum water level of 1.56 m, although the peak surge occurred during slack tide level (0.00 m). Hurricanes and tropical systems contribute to return periods of 10-100 years with water levels in the approximate range of 1.3-1.55 m. Extratropical systems and nor'easters contribute to the historical storm population (in the general return-period range of 1-10 years) and are capable of producing extreme storm surges (in the approximate range of 1.15-1.3 m) on par with those generated by hurricanes and tropical systems. The highest astronomical tide is 1.02 m, which by evaluation of the historical record can contribute as much as 94% to the total storm-tide water level. Statically, a hypothetical scenario of Hurricane Matthew's peak surge coinciding with the highest astronomical tide would yield an overall storm-tide water level of 2.58 m, corresponding to an approximate 1000-year return period by historical comparison. Sea-level trends (linear and nonlinear) impact water-level return periods and constitute additional risk hazard for coastal engineering designs.

  6. Modeling storm waves; Modeliser les houles de tempete

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benoit, M.; Marcos, F.; Teisson, Ch

    1999-07-01

    Nuclear power stations located on the coast take the water they use to cool their circuits from the sea. The water intake and discharge devices must be able to operate in all weathers, notably during extreme storms, with waves 10 m high and over. To predict the impact of the waves on the equipment, they are modeled digitally from the moment they form in the middle of the ocean right up to the moment they break on the shore. (authors)

  7. Investigating extreme event loading on coastal bridges using wireless sensor technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelineau, Douglas A.; Davis, Justin R.; Rice, Jennifer A.

    2017-04-01

    Coastal infrastructure, such as bridges, are susceptible to many forms of coastal hazards: particularly hurricane surge and wave loading. These two forms of loading can cause catastrophic damage to aging highway infrastructure. It is estimated that storm damage costs the United States about $50 Billion per year. In light of this, it is crucial that we understand the damaging forces placed on infrastructure during storm events so that we can develop safer and more resilient coastal structures. This paper presents the ongoing research to enable the efficient collection of extreme event loads acting on both the substructure and superstructure of low clearance, simple span, reinforced concrete bridges. Bridges of this type were commonly constructed during the 1950's and 60's and are particularly susceptible to deck unseating caused by hurricane surge and wave loading. The sensing technology used to capture this data must be ruggedized to survive in an extremely challenging environment, be designed to allow for redundancy in the event of sensors or other network components being lost in the storm, and be relatively low cost to allow for more bridges to be instrumented per storm event. The prototype system described in this paper includes wireless technology, rapid data transmission, and, for the sensors, self-contained power. While this specific application focuses on hurricane hazards, the framework can be extended to include other natural hazards.

  8. Solar Proton Events in Six Solar Cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitaly, Ishkov

    Based on materials the catalogs of solar proton events (SPE) in 1955 ‒ 2010 and list SPE for the current 24 solar cycle (SC) are examined confirmed SPE with E> 10 MeV proton flux in excess of 1 proton cm-2 s ster-1 (pfu) from Švestka and Simon’s (1955 - 1969) and 5 volumes Logachev’s (1970 - 2006) Catalogs of SPE. Historically thus it was formed, that the measurements of the proton fluxes began in the epoch “increased” solar activity (SC 18 ‒ 22), and includes transition period of the solar magnetic fields reconstruction from epoch “increased” to the epoch “lowered” solar activity (22 ‒ 23 SC). In current 24 SC ‒ first SC of the incipient epoch of “lowered” SA ‒ SPE realize under the new conditions, to that of previously not observed. As showed a study of five solar cycles with the reliable measurements of E> 10 MeV proton flux in excess of 1 pfu (1964 - 2013): ‒ a quantity of SPEs remained approximately identical in SC 20, 21, somewhat decreased in the initial solar cycle of the solar magnetic fields reconstruction period (22), but it returned to the same quantity in, the base for the period of reconstruction, SC 23. ‒ Into the first 5 years of the each solar cycle development the rate of the proton generation events noticeably increased in 22 cycles of solar activity and returned to the average in cycles 23 and 24. ‒ Extreme solar flare events are achieved, as a rule, in the solar magnetic fields reconstruction period (August - September 1859; June 1991; October ‒ November 2003.), it is confirmed also for SPE: the extreme fluxes of solar protons (S4) except one (August 1972) were occurred in period of perestroika (SC 22 and 23). This can speak, that inside the epochs SA, when the generation of magnetic field in the convective zone works in the steady-state regime, extreme SPE are improbable. ‒ The largest in the fluxes of protons (S3, S4) occur in the complexes of the active regions flare events, where magnetic field more

  9. DE 2 observations of disturbances in the upper atmosphere during a geomagnetic storm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, N.J.; Brace, L.H.; Spencer, N.W.; Carignan, G.R.

    1990-01-01

    Data taken in the dusk sector of the mid-latitude thermosphere at 275-450 km by instruments on board Dynamics Explorer 2 in polar orbit are used to examine the response of the ionosphere- thermosphere system during a geomagnetic storm. The results represent the first comparison of nearly simultaneous measurements of storm disturbances in dc electric fields, zonal ion convection, zonal winds, gas composition and temperature, and electron density and temperature, at different seasons in a common local time sector. The storm commenced on November 24, 1982, during the interaction of a solar wind disturbance with the geomagnetic field while the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field, B z , was northward. The storm main phase began while B z was turning southward. Storm-induced variations in meridional de electric fields, neutral composition, and N e were stronger and spread farther equatorward in the winter hemisphere. Westward ion convection was intense enough to produce westward winds of 600 m s - 1 via ion drag in the winter hemisphere. Frictional heating was sufficient to elevate ion temperatures above electron temperatures in both seasons and to produce large chemical losses of O + by increasing the rate of O + loss via ion-atom interchange. Part of the chemical loss of O + was compensated by upward flow of O + as the ion scale height adjusted to the increasing ion temperatures. In this storm, frictional heating was an important subauroral heat source equatorward to at least 53 degree invariant latitude

  10. Effects of Extreme Events on Arsenic Cycling in Salt Marshes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Northrup, Kristy; Capooci, Margaret; Seyfferth, Angelia L.

    2018-03-01

    Extreme events such as storm surges, intense precipitation, and supermoons cause anomalous and large fluctuations in water level in tidal salt marshes, which impacts the sediment biogeochemistry that dictates arsenic (As) cycling. In addition to changes in water level, which impacts soil redox potential, these extreme events may also change salinity due to freshwater inputs from precipitation or saltwater inputs due to surge. It is currently unknown how As mobility in tidal salt marshes will be impacted by extreme events, as fluctuations in salinity and redox potential may act synergistically to mobilize As. To investigate impacts of extreme events on As cycling in tidal salt marshes, we conducted a combined laboratory and field investigation. We monitored pore water and soil samples before, during, and after two extreme events: a supermoon lunar eclipse followed by a storm surge and precipitation induced by Hurricane Joaquin in fall 2015 at the St. Jones Reserve in Dover, Delaware, a representative tidal salt marsh in the Mid-Atlantic United States. We also conducted soil incubations of marsh sediments in batch and in flow-through experiments in which redox potential and/or salinity were manipulated. Field investigations showed that pore water As was inversely proportional to redox potential. During the extreme events, a distinct pulse of As was observed in the pore water with maximum salinity. Combined field and laboratory investigations revealed that this As pulse is likely due to rapid changes in salinity. These results have implications for As mobility in the face of extreme weather variability.

  11. Strategies to take into account variations in extreme rainfall events for design storms in urban area: an example over Naples (Southern Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercogliano, P.; Rianna, G.

    2017-12-01

    Eminent works highlighted how available observations display ongoing increases in extreme rainfall events while climate models assess them for future. Although the constraints in rainfall networks observations and uncertainties in climate modelling currently affect in significant way investigations, the huge impacts potentially induced by climate changes (CC) suggest adopting effective adaptation measures in order to take proper precautions. In this regard, design storms are used by engineers to size hydraulic infrastructures potentially affected by direct (e.g. pluvial/urban flooding) and indirect (e.g. river flooding) effects of extreme rainfall events. Usually they are expressed as IDF curves, mathematical relationships between rainfall Intensity, Duration, and the return period (frequency, F). They are estimated interpreting through Extreme Theories Statistical Theories (ETST) past rainfall records under the assumption of steady conditions resulting then unsuitable under climate change. In this work, a methodology to estimate future variations in IDF curves is presented and carried out for the city of Naples (Southern Italy). In this regard, the Equidistance Quantile Matching Approach proposed by Sivrastav et al. (2014) is adopted. According it, daily-subdaily maximum precipitation observations [a] and the analogous daily data provided by climate projections on current [b] and future time spans [c] are interpreted in IDF terms through Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) approach. After, quantile based mapping approach is used to establish a statistical relationship between cumulative distribution functions resulting by GEV of [a] and [b] (spatial downscaling) and [b] and [c] functions (temporal downscaling). Coupling so-obtained relations permits generating IDF curves under CC assumption. To account for uncertainties in future projections, all climate simulations available for the area in Euro-Cordex multimodel ensemble at 0.11° (about 12 km) are considered under

  12. Ionospheric Data Assimilation and Targeted Observation Strategies: Proof of Concept Analysis in a Geomagnetic Storm Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kostelich, Eric; Durazo, Juan; Mahalov, Alex

    2017-11-01

    The dynamics of the ionosphere involve complex interactions between the atmosphere, solar wind, cosmic radiation, and Earth's magnetic field. Geomagnetic storms arising from solar activity can perturb these dynamics sufficiently to disrupt radio and satellite communications. Efforts to predict ``space weather,'' including ionospheric dynamics, require the development of a data assimilation system that combines observing systems with appropriate forecast models. This talk will outline a proof-of-concept targeted observation strategy, consisting of the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter, coupled with the Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics Global Circulation Model, to select optimal locations where additional observations can be made to improve short-term ionospheric forecasts. Initial results using data and forecasts from the geomagnetic storm of 26-27 September 2011 will be described. Work supported by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research (Grant Number FA9550-15-1-0096) and by the National Science Foundation (Grant Number DMS-0940314).

  13. Influence of the interplanetary driver type on the durations of main and recovery phases of magnetic storms

    OpenAIRE

    Yermolaev, Yu. I.; Lodkina, I. G.; Nikolaeva, N. S.; Yermolaev, M. Yu.

    2013-01-01

    We study durations of main and recovery phases of magnetic storms induced by different types of large-scale solar-wind streams (Sheath, magnetic cloud (MC), Ejecta and CIR) on the basis of OMNI data base during 1976-2000. Durations of both main and recovery phases depend on types of interplanetary drivers. On the average, duration of main phase of storms induced by compressed regions (CIR and Sheath) is shorter than by MC and Ejecta while duration of recovery phase of CIR- and Sheath-induced ...

  14. Thyroid storm associated with Graves' disease covered by diabetic ketoacidosis: A case report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osada Erika

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Thyroid storm is a condition in which multiple organ dysfunction results from failure of the compensatory mechanisms of the body owing to excessive thyroid hormone activity induced by some factors in patients with thyrotoxicosis. While diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA is an important trigger for thyroid storm, simultaneous development of DKA and thyroid storm is rare. Case presentation A 59-year-old woman with no history of either diabetes mellitus or thyroid disease presented to our hospital because of developing nausea, vomiting and diarrhea for 2 days. Physical examination showed mild disturbance of consciousness, fever, and tachycardia. There were no other signs of thyrotoxicosis. Laboratory studies revealed elevation of random blood glucose and glycosylated hemoglobin, strongly positive of urine acetone, and metabolic acidosis. Since DKA was diagnosed, we initiated the patient on treatment with administration of insulin and adequate fluid replacement. Although the hyperglycemia and acidosis were immediately relieved, the disturbance of consciousness and tachycardia remained persistent. Levels of FT3 and FT4 were extremely high and TSH was below the detectable limit. TRAb was positive. The thyroid storm score of Burch & Wartofsky was 75/140, and the thyroid storm diagnostic criteria of the Japan Thyroid Association were satisfied. Oral administration of thiamazole, potassium iodide and propranolol resulted in immediate relief of the tachycardia. Discussion We encountered a case of thyroid storm associated with Graves' disease covered by DKA. Thyroid storm and DKA are both potentially fatal, and the prognosis varies depending on whether or not these conditions are detected and treated sufficiently early. The thyroid storm diagnostic criteria prepared in 2008 by the Japan Thyroid Association are very simple as compared to the Burch & Wartofsky scoring system for thyroid storm. The Japanese criteria may be useful in the diagnosis

  15. Thyroid storm associated with Graves' disease covered by diabetic ketoacidosis: A case report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osada, Erika; Hiroi, Naoki; Sue, Mariko; Masai, Natsumi; Iga, Ryo; Shigemitsu, Rika; Oka, Reiko; Miyagi, Masahiko; Iso, Kaoru; Kuboki, Koji; Yoshino, Gen

    2011-04-14

    Thyroid storm is a condition in which multiple organ dysfunction results from failure of the compensatory mechanisms of the body owing to excessive thyroid hormone activity induced by some factors in patients with thyrotoxicosis. While diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) is an important trigger for thyroid storm, simultaneous development of DKA and thyroid storm is rare. A 59-year-old woman with no history of either diabetes mellitus or thyroid disease presented to our hospital because of developing nausea, vomiting and diarrhea for 2 days. Physical examination showed mild disturbance of consciousness, fever, and tachycardia. There were no other signs of thyrotoxicosis. Laboratory studies revealed elevation of random blood glucose and glycosylated hemoglobin, strongly positive of urine acetone, and metabolic acidosis. Since DKA was diagnosed, we initiated the patient on treatment with administration of insulin and adequate fluid replacement. Although the hyperglycemia and acidosis were immediately relieved, the disturbance of consciousness and tachycardia remained persistent. Levels of FT3 and FT4 were extremely high and TSH was below the detectable limit. TRAb was positive. The thyroid storm score of Burch & Wartofsky was 75/140, and the thyroid storm diagnostic criteria of the Japan Thyroid Association were satisfied. Oral administration of thiamazole, potassium iodide and propranolol resulted in immediate relief of the tachycardia. We encountered a case of thyroid storm associated with Graves' disease covered by DKA. Thyroid storm and DKA are both potentially fatal, and the prognosis varies depending on whether or not these conditions are detected and treated sufficiently early. The thyroid storm diagnostic criteria prepared in 2008 by the Japan Thyroid Association are very simple as compared to the Burch & Wartofsky scoring system for thyroid storm. The Japanese criteria may be useful in the diagnosis of this condition since they enable clinicians to identify a broad

  16. Case study: Rainfall partitioning across a natural-to-urban forest gradient during an extreme rain event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akin, B. H.; Van Stan, J. T., II; Cote, J. F.; Jarvis, M. T.; Underwood, J.; Friesen, J.; Hildebrandt, A.; Maldonado, G.

    2017-12-01

    Trees' partitioning of rainfall is an important first process along the rainfall-to-runoff pathway that has economically significant influences on urban stormwater management. However, important knowledge gaps exist regarding (1) its role during extreme storms and (2) how this role changes as forest structure is altered by urbanization. Little research has been conducted on canopy rainfall partitioning during large, intense storms, likely because canopy water storage is rapidly overwhelmed (i.e., 1-3 mm) by short duration events exceeding, for example, 80 mm of rainfall. However, canopy structure controls more than just storage; it also affects the time for rain to drain to the surface (becoming throughfall) and the micrometeorological conditions that drive wet canopy evaporation. In fact, observations from an example extreme ( 100 mm with maximum 5-minute intensities exceeding 55 mm/h) storm across a urban-to-natural gradient in pine forests in southeast Georgia (USA), show that storm intensities were differentially dampened by 33% (tree row), 28% (forest fragment), and 17% (natural forests). In addition, maximum wet canopy evaporation rates were higher for the exposed tree row (0.18 mm/h) than for the partially-enclosed fragment canopy (0.14 mm/h) and the closed canopy natural forest site (0.11). This resulted in interception percentages decreasing from urban-to-natural stand structures (25% to 16%). A synoptic analysis of the extreme storm in this case study also shows that the mesoscale meteorological conditions that developed the heavy rainfall is expected to occur more often with projected climate changes.

  17. Competition Between Radial Loss and EMIC Wave Scattering of MeV Electrons During Strong CME-shock Driven Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudson, M. K.; Jaynes, A. N.; Li, Z.; Malaspina, D.; Millan, R. M.; Patel, M.; Qin, M.; Shen, X.; Wiltberger, M. J.

    2017-12-01

    The two strongest storms of Solar Cycle 24, 17 March and 22 June 2015, provide a contrast between magnetospheric response to CME-shocks at equinox and solstice. The 17 March CME-shock initiated storm produced a stronger ring current response with Dst = - 223 nT, while the 22 June CME-shock initiated storm reached a minimum Dst = - 204 nT. The Van Allen Probes ECT instrument measured a dropout in flux for both events which can be characterized by magnetopause loss at higher L values prior to strong recovery1. However, rapid loss is seen at L 3 for the June storm at high energies with maximum drop in the 5.2 MeV channel of the REPT instrument coincident with the observation of EMIC waves in the H+ band by the EMFISIS wave instrument. The rapid time scale of loss can be determined from the 65 minute delay in passage of the Probe A relative to the Probe B spacecraft. The distinct behavior of lower energy electrons at higher L values has been modeled with MHD-test particle simulations, while the rapid loss of higher energy electrons is examined in terms of the minimum resonant energy criterion for EMIC wave scattering, and compared with the timescale for loss due to EMIC wave scattering which has been modeled for other storm events.2 1Baker, D. N., et al. (2016), Highly relativistic radiation belt electron acceleration, transport, and loss: Large solar storm events of March and June 2015, J. Geophys. Res. Space Physics, 121, 6647-6660, doi:10.1002/2016JA022502. 2Li, Z., et al. (2014), Investigation of EMIC wave scattering as the cause for the BARREL 17 January 2013 relativistic electron precipitation event: A quantitative comparison of simulation with observations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 8722-8729, doi:10.1002/2014GL062273.

  18. Impacts of storm chronology on the morphological changes of the Formby beach and dune system, UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dissanayake, P.; Brown, J.; Karunarathna, H.

    2015-07-01

    Impacts of storm chronology within a storm cluster on beach/dune erosion are investigated by applying the state-of-the-art numerical model XBeach to the Sefton coast, northwest England. Six temporal storm clusters of different storm chronologies were formulated using three storms observed during the 2013/2014 winter. The storm power values of these three events nearly halve from the first to second event and from the second to third event. Cross-shore profile evolution was simulated in response to the tide, surge and wave forcing during these storms. The model was first calibrated against the available post-storm survey profiles. Cumulative impacts of beach/dune erosion during each storm cluster were simulated by using the post-storm profile of an event as the pre-storm profile for each subsequent event. For the largest event the water levels caused noticeable retreat of the dune toe due to the high water elevation. For the other events the greatest evolution occurs over the bar formations (erosion) and within the corresponding troughs (deposition) of the upper-beach profile. The sequence of events impacting the size of this ridge-runnel feature is important as it consequently changes the resilience of the system to the most extreme event that causes dune retreat. The highest erosion during each single storm event was always observed when that storm initialised the storm cluster. The most severe storm always resulted in the most erosion during each cluster, no matter when it occurred within the chronology, although the erosion volume due to this storm was reduced when it was not the primary event. The greatest cumulative cluster erosion occurred with increasing storm severity; however, the variability in cumulative cluster impact over a beach/dune cross section due to storm chronology is minimal. Initial storm impact can act to enhance or reduce the system resilience to subsequent impact, but overall the cumulative impact is controlled by the magnitude and number

  19. Geomagnetic storms, super-storms, and their impacts on GPS-based navigation systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Astafyeva, E.; Yasyukevich, Yu.; Maksikov, A.; Zhivetiev, I.

    2014-07-01

    Using data of GPS receivers located worldwide, we analyze the quality of GPS performance during four geomagnetic storms of different intensity: two super-storms and two intense storms. We show that during super-storms the density of GPS Losses-of-Lock (LoL) increases up to 0.25% at L1 frequency and up to 3% at L2 frequency, and up to 0.15% (at L1) and 1% (at L2) during less intense storms. Also, depending on the intensity of the storm time ionospheric disturbances, the total number of total electron content (TEC) slips can exceed from 4 to 40 times the quiet time level. Both GPS LoL and TEC slips occur during abrupt changes of SYM-H index of geomagnetic activity, i.e., during the main phase of geomagnetic storms and during development of ionospheric storms. The main contribution in the total number of GPS LoL was found to be done by GPS sites located at low and high latitudes, whereas the area of numerous TEC slips seemed to mostly correspond to the boundary of the auroral oval, i.e., region with intensive ionospheric irregularities. Our global maps of TEC slips show where the regions with intense irregularities of electron density occur during geomagnetic storms and will let us in future predict appearance of GPS errors for geomagnetically disturbed conditions.

  20. The influence of solar active region evolution on solar wind streams, coronal hole boundaries and geomagnetic storms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gold, R.E.; Dodson-Prince, H.W.; Hedeman, E.R.; Roelof, E.C.

    1982-01-01

    We have studied solar and interplanetary data by identification of the heliographic longitudes of the coronal source regions of high speed solar wind streams and by mapping the velocities measured near earth back to the sun using the approximation of constant radial velocity. Interplay of active regions and solar wind were studied

  1. Effect of solar flare on the equatorial electrojet in eastern Brazil region

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R G Rastogi

    2017-06-07

    Jun 7, 2017 ... The effect of solar flare, sudden commencement of magnetic storm and of the disturbances ring current on the ... and measured east of geographic north. The ΔH .... Figure 2 shows the intensity of solar x-ray radiations in the ...

  2. Data Assimilation within the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) Modeling Framework for Hurricane Storm Surge Forecasting

    KAUST Repository

    Butler, T.

    2012-07-01

    Accurate, real-time forecasting of coastal inundation due to hurricanes and tropical storms is a challenging computational problem requiring high-fidelity forward models of currents and water levels driven by hurricane-force winds. Despite best efforts in computational modeling there will always be uncertainty in storm surge forecasts. In recent years, there has been significant instrumentation located along the coastal United States for the purpose of collecting data—specifically wind, water levels, and wave heights—during these extreme events. This type of data, if available in real time, could be used in a data assimilation framework to improve hurricane storm surge forecasts. In this paper a data assimilation methodology for storm surge forecasting based on the use of ensemble Kalman filters and the advanced circulation (ADCIRC) storm surge model is described. The singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter has been shown to be effective at producing accurate results for ocean models using small ensemble sizes initialized by an empirical orthogonal function analysis. The SEIK filter is applied to the ADCIRC model to improve storm surge forecasting, particularly in capturing maximum water levels (high water marks) and the timing of the surge. Two test cases of data obtained from hindcast studies of Hurricanes Ike and Katrina are presented. It is shown that a modified SEIK filter with an inflation factor improves the accuracy of coarse-resolution forecasts of storm surge resulting from hurricanes. Furthermore, the SEIK filter requires only modest computational resources to obtain more accurate forecasts of storm surge in a constrained time window where forecasters must interact with emergency responders.

  3. Storm surge evolution and its relationship to climate oscillations at Duck, NC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munroe, Robert; Curtis, Scott

    2017-07-01

    Coastal communities experience increased vulnerability during storm surge events through the risk of damage to coastal infrastructure, erosion/deposition, and the endangerment of human life. Policy and planning measures attempt to avoid or mitigate storm surge consequences through building codes and setbacks, beach stabilization, insurance rates, and coastal zoning. The coastal emergency management community and public react and respond on shorter time scales, through temporary protection, emergency stockpiling, and evacuation. This study utilizes time series analysis, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test, Pearson's correlation, and the generalized extreme value (GEV) theorem to make the connection between climate oscillation indices and storm surge characteristics intra-seasonally to inter-annually. Results indicate that an El Niño (+ENSO), negative phase of the NAO, and positive phase of the PNA pattern all support longer duration and hence more powerful surge events, especially in winter. Increased surge duration increases the likelihood of extensive erosion, inland inundation, among other undesirable effects of the surge hazard.

  4. Total electron content responses to HILDCAAs and geomagnetic storms over South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mara de Siqueira Negreti, Patricia; Rodrigues de Paula, Eurico; Nicoli Candido, Claudia Maria

    2017-12-01

    Total electron content (TEC) is extensively used to monitor the ionospheric behavior under geomagnetically quiet and disturbed conditions. This subject is of greatest importance for space weather applications. Under disturbed conditions the two main sources of electric fields, which are responsible for changes in the plasma drifts and for current perturbations, are the short-lived prompt penetration electric fields (PPEFs) and the longer-lasting ionospheric disturbance dynamo (DD) electric fields. Both mechanisms modulate the TEC around the globe and the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) at low latitudes. In this work we computed vertical absolute TEC over the low latitude of South America. The analysis was performed considering HILDCAA (high-intensity, long-duration, continuous auroral electrojet (AE) activity) events and geomagnetic storms. The characteristics of storm-time TEC and HILDCAA-associated TEC will be presented and discussed. For both case studies presented in this work (March and August 2013) the HILDCAA event follows a geomagnetic storm, and then a global scenario of geomagnetic disturbances will be discussed. Solar wind parameters, geomagnetic indices, O / N2 ratios retrieved by GUVI instrument onboard the TIMED satellite and TEC observations will be analyzed and discussed. Data from the RBMC/IBGE (Brazil) and IGS GNSS networks were used to calculate TEC over South America. We show that a HILDCAA event may generate larger TEC differences compared to the TEC observed during the main phase of the precedent geomagnetic storm; thus, a HILDCAA event may be more effective for ionospheric response in comparison to moderate geomagnetic storms, considering the seasonal conditions. During the August HILDCAA event, TEC enhancements from ˜ 25 to 80 % (compared to quiet time) were observed. These enhancements are much higher than the quiet-time variability observed in the ionosphere. We show that ionosphere is quite sensitive to solar wind forcing and

  5. Development of High-Resolution Dynamic Dust Source Function - A Case Study with a Strong Dust Storm in a Regional Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Dongchul; Chin, Mian; Kemp, Eric M.; Tao, Zhining; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Ginoux, Paul

    2017-01-01

    A high-resolution dynamic dust source has been developed in the NASA Unified-Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model to improve the existing coarse static dust source. In the new dust source map, topographic depression is in 1-km resolution and surface bareness is derived using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The new dust source better resolves the complex topographic distribution over the Western United States where its magnitude is higher than the existing, coarser resolution static source. A case study is conducted with an extreme dust storm that occurred in Phoenix, Arizona in 0203 UTC July 6, 2011. The NU-WRF model with the new high-resolution dynamic dust source is able to successfully capture the dust storm, which was not achieved with the old source identification. However the case study also reveals several challenges in reproducing the time evolution of the short-lived, extreme dust storm events.

  6. Development of High-Resolution Dynamic Dust Source Function -A Case Study with a Strong Dust Storm in a Regional Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Dongchul; Chin, Mian; Kemp, Eric M; Tao, Zhining; Peters-Lidard, Christa D; Ginoux, Paul

    2017-06-01

    A high-resolution dynamic dust source has been developed in the NASA Unified-Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model to improve the existing coarse static dust source. In the new dust source map, topographic depression is in 1-km resolution and surface bareness is derived using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The new dust source better resolves the complex topographic distribution over the Western United States where its magnitude is higher than the existing, coarser resolution static source. A case study is conducted with an extreme dust storm that occurred in Phoenix, Arizona in 02-03 UTC July 6, 2011. The NU-WRF model with the new high-resolution dynamic dust source is able to successfully capture the dust storm, which was not achieved with the old source identification. However the case study also reveals several challenges in reproducing the time evolution of the short-lived, extreme dust storm events.

  7. Solar weather monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-F. Hochedez

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available Space Weather nowcasting and forecasting require solar observations because geoeffective disturbances can arise from three types of solar phenomena: coronal mass ejections (CMEs, flares and coronal holes. For each, we discuss their definition and review their precursors in terms of remote sensing and in-situ observations. The objectives of Space Weather require some specific instrumental features, which we list using the experience gained from the daily operations of the Solar Influences Data analysis Centre (SIDC at the Royal Observatory of Belgium. Nowcasting requires real-time monitoring to assess quickly and reliably the severity of any potentially geoeffective solar event. Both research and forecasting could incorporate more observations in order to feed case studies and data assimilation respectively. Numerical models will result in better predictions of geomagnetic storms and solar energetic particle (SEP events. We review the data types available to monitor solar activity and interplanetary conditions. They come from space missions and ground observatories and range from sequences of dopplergrams, magnetograms, white-light, chromospheric, coronal, coronagraphic and radio images, to irradiance and in-situ time-series. Their role is summarized together with indications about current and future solar monitoring instruments.

  8. Ring current and auroral electrojets in connection with interplanetary medium parameters during magnetic storm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. I. Feldstein

    1994-06-01

    Full Text Available The relationship between the auroral electrojet indices (AE and the ring current magnetic field (DR was investigated by observations obtained during the magnetic storm on 1-3 April 1973. During the storm main phase the DR development is accompanied by a shift of the auroral electrojets toward the equator. As a result, the standard AE indices calculated on the basis of data from auroral observatories was substantially lower than the real values (AE'. To determine AE' during the course of a storm main phase data from subauroral magnetic observatories should be used. It is shown that the intensity of the indices (AE' which take into account the shift of the electrojets is increased substantially relative to the standard indices during the storm main phase. AE' values are closely correlated with geoeffective solar wind parameters. A high correlation was obtained between AE' and the energy flux into the ring current during the storm main phase. Analysis of magnetic field variations during intervals with intense southward IMF components demonstrates a decrease of the saturation effect of auroral electrojet currents if subauroral stations magnetic field variations are taken into account. This applies both to case studies and statistical data. The dynamics of the electrojets in connection with the development of the ring current and of magnetospheric substorms can be described by the presence (absence of saturation for minimum (maximum AE index values during a 1-h interval. The ring current magnetic field asymmetry (ASY was calculated as the difference between the maximum and minimum field values along a parallel of latitude at low latitudes. The ASY value is closely correlated with geoeffective solar wind parameters and simultaneously is a more sensitive indicator of IMF Bz variations than the symmetric ring current. ASY increases (decreases faster during the main phase (the recovery phase than DR. The magnetic field decay at low latitudes in the

  9. Statistical analysis of storm-time near-Earth current systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. W. Liemohn

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Currents from the Hot Electron and Ion Drift Integrator (HEIDI inner magnetospheric model results for all of the 90 intense storms (disturbance storm-time (Dst minimum < −100 nT from solar cycle 23 (1996–2005 are calculated, presented, and analyzed. We have categorized these currents into the various systems that exist in near-Earth space, specifically the eastward and westward symmetric ring current, the partial ring current, the banana current, and the tail current. The current results from each run set are combined by a normalized superposed epoch analysis technique that scales the timeline of each phase of each storm before summing the results. It is found that there is a systematic ordering to the current systems, with the asymmetric current systems peaking during storm main phase (tail current rising first, then the banana current, followed by the partial ring current and the symmetric current systems peaking during the early recovery phase (westward and eastward symmetric ring current having simultaneous maxima. The median and mean peak amplitudes for the current systems ranged from 1 to 3 MA, depending on the setup configuration used in HEIDI, except for the eastward symmetric ring current, for which the mean never exceeded 0.3 MA for any HEIDI setup. The self-consistent electric field description in HEIDI yielded larger tail and banana currents than the Volland–Stern electric field, while the partial and symmetric ring currents had similar peak values between the two applied electric field models.

  10. Lower thermosphere (80-100 km) dynamics response to solar and geomagnetic activity: Overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kazimirovsky, E.S.

    1989-01-01

    The variations of solar and geomagnetic activity may affect the thermosphere circulation via plasma heating and electric fields, especially at high latitudes. The possibility exists that the energy involved in auroral and magnetic storms can produce significant changes of mesosphere and lower thermosphere wind systems. A study of global radar measurements of winds at 80 to 100 km region revealed the short term effects (correlation between wind field and geomagnetic storms) and long term variations over a solar cycle. It seems likely that the correlation results from a modification of planetary waves and tides propagated from below, thus altering the dynamical regime of the thermosphere. Sometimes the long term behavior points rather to a climatic variation with the internal atmospheric cause than to a direct solar control

  11. PDS-Modelling and Regional Bayesian Estimation of Extreme Rainfalls

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan; Harremoës, Poul

    1994-01-01

    rainfalls. The method is applied to two variables: the total precipitation depth and the maximum 10-minute rain intensity of individual storms. On the basis of the atsite modelling a regional analysis is carried out. It is shown that the previous assumption of spatial homogeneity of extreme rainfalls...

  12. Impact of the Icme-Earth Geometry on the Strength of the Associated Geomagnetic Storm: The September 2014 and March 2015 Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, K.-S.; Marubashi, K.; Kim, R.-S.; Park, S.-H.; Lim, E.-K.; Kim, S.-J.; Kumar, P.; Yurchyshyn, V.; Moon, Y.-J.; Lee, J.-O.

    2017-04-01

    We investigate two abnormal CME-Storm pairs that occurred on 2014 September 10 - 12 and 2015 March 15 - 17, respectively. The first one was a moderate geomagnetic storm (Dst_{min} ˜ -75 nT) driven by the X1.6 high speed flare-associated CME (1267 km s^{-1}) in AR 12158 (N14E02) near solar disk center. The other was a very intense geomagnetic storm (Dst_{min} ˜ -223 nT) caused by a CME with moderate speed (719 km s^{-1}) and associated with a filament eruption accompanied by a weak flare (C9.1) in AR 12297 (S17W38). Both CMEs have large direction parameters facing the Earth and southward magnetic field orientation in their solar source region. In this study, we inspect the structure of Interplanetary Flux Ropes (IFRs) at the Earth estimated by using the torus fitting technique assuming self-similar expansion. As results, we find that the moderate storm on 2014 September 12 was caused by small-scale southward magnetic fields in the sheath region ahead of the IFR. The Earth traversed the portion of the IFR where only the northward fields are observed. Meanwhile, in case of the 2015 March 17 storm, our IFR analysis revealed that the Earth passed the very portion where only the southward magnetic fields are observed throughout the passage. The resultant southward magnetic field with long-duration is the main cause of the intense storm. We suggest that 3D magnetic field geometry of an IFR at the IFR-Earth encounter is important and the strength of a geomagnetic storm is strongly affected by the relative location of the Earth with respect to the IFR structure.

  13. Dependence of the cross polar cap potential saturation on the type of solar wind streams

    OpenAIRE

    Nikolaeva, N. S.; Yermolaev, Yu. I.; Lodkina, I. G.

    2013-01-01

    We compare of the cross polar cap potential (CPCP) saturation during magnetic storms induced by various types of the solar wind drivers. By using the model of Siscoe-Hill \\citep{Hilletal1976,Siscoeetal2002a,Siscoeetal2002b,Siscoeetal2004,Siscoe2011} we evaluate criteria of the CPCP saturation during the main phases of 257 magnetic storms ($Dst_{min} \\le -50$ nT) induced by the following types of the solar wind streams: magnetic clouds (MC), Ejecta, the compress region Sheath before MC ($Sh_{M...

  14. Substorm activity during the main phase of magnetic storms induced by the CIR and ICME events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boroyev, R. N.; Vasiliev, M. S.

    2018-01-01

    In this work, the relation of high-latitude indices of geomagnetic activity (AE, Kp) with the rate of storm development and a solar wind electric field during the main phase of magnetic storm induced by the CIR and ICME events is investigated. 72 magnetic storms induced by CIR and ICME events have been selected. It is shown that for the CIR and ICME events the increase of average value of the Kp index (Kpaver) is observed with the growth of rate of storm development. The value of Kpaver index correlates with the magnitude of minimum value of Dst index (|Dstmin|) only for the ICME events. The analysis of average values of AE and Kp indices during the main phase of magnetic storm depending on the SW electric field has shown that for the CIR events, unlike the ICME events, the value of AEaver increases with the growth of average value of the electric field (Eswaver). The value of Kpaver correlates with the Eswaver only for the ICME events. The relation between geomagnetic indices and the maximum value of SW electric field (Eswmax) is weak. However, for the ICME events Kpaver correlates with Eswmax.

  15. Development of the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for predicting the impact of storms on high-energy, active-margin coasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnard, Patrick; Maarten van Ormondt,; Erikson, Li H.; Jodi Eshleman,; Hapke, Cheryl J.; Peter Ruggiero,; Peter Adams,; Foxgrover, Amy C.

    2014-01-01

    The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) applies a predominantly deterministic framework to make detailed predictions (meter scale) of storm-induced coastal flooding, erosion, and cliff failures over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers). CoSMoS was developed for hindcast studies, operational applications (i.e., nowcasts and multiday forecasts), and future climate scenarios (i.e., sea-level rise + storms) to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm hazards information that may be used to increase public safety, mitigate physical damages, and more effectively manage and allocate resources within complex coastal settings. The prototype system, developed for the California coast, uses the global WAVEWATCH III wave model, the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite altimetry-based global tide model, and atmospheric-forcing data from either the US National Weather Service (operational mode) or Global Climate Models (future climate mode), to determine regional wave and water-level boundary conditions. These physical processes are dynamically downscaled using a series of nested Delft3D-WAVE (SWAN) and Delft3D-FLOW (FLOW) models and linked at the coast to tightly spaced XBeach (eXtreme Beach) cross-shore profile models and a Bayesian probabilistic cliff failure model. Hindcast testing demonstrates that, despite uncertainties in preexisting beach morphology over the ~500 km alongshore extent of the pilot study area, CoSMoS effectively identifies discrete sections of the coast (100s of meters) that are vulnerable to coastal hazards under a range of current and future oceanographic forcing conditions, and is therefore an effective tool for operational and future climate scenario planning.

  16. Improved Storm Monitoring and Prediction for the San Francisco Bay Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cifelli, R.; Chandrasekar, V.; Anderson, M.; Davis, G.

    2017-12-01

    The Advanced Quantitative Precipitation Information (AQPI) System is a multi-faceted project to improve precipitation and hydrologic monitoring, prediction, and decision support for the San Francisco Bay Area. The Bay Area faces a multitude of threats from extreme events, including disrupted transportation from flooded roads and railroad lines, water management challenges related to storm water, river and reservoir management and storm-related damage demanding emergency response. The threats occur on spatial scales ranging from local communities to the entire region and time scales ranging from hours to days. These challenges will be exacerbated by future sea level rise, more extreme weather events and increased vulnerabilities. AQPI is a collaboration of federal, state and local governments with assistance from the research community. Led by NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory, in partnership with the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, USGS, and Scripps, AQPI is a four-year effort funded in part by a grant from the California Department of Water Resource's Integrated Regional Water Management Program. The Sonoma County Water Agency is serving as the local sponsor of the project. Other local participants include the Santa Clara Valley Water District, San Francisco Public Utilities Commission, and the Bay Area Flood Protection Agencies Association. AQPI will provide both improved observing capabilities and a suite of numerical forecast models to produce accurate and timely information for benefit of flood management, emergency response, water quality, ecosystem services, water supply and transportation management for the Bay Area. The resulting information will support decision making to mitigate flood risks, secure water supplies, minimize water quality impacts to the Bay from combined sewer overflows, and have improved lead-time on coastal and Bay inundation from extreme storms like Atmospheric Rivers (ARs). The project is expected to

  17. Healthcare4VideoStorm: Making Smart Decisions Based on Storm Metrics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Weishan; Duan, Pengcheng; Chen, Xiufeng; Lu, Qinghua

    2016-04-23

    Storm-based stream processing is widely used for real-time large-scale distributed processing. Knowing the run-time status and ensuring performance is critical to providing expected dependability for some applications, e.g., continuous video processing for security surveillance. The existing scheduling strategies' granularity is too coarse to have good performance, and mainly considers network resources without computing resources while scheduling. In this paper, we propose Healthcare4Storm, a framework that finds Storm insights based on Storm metrics to gain knowledge from the health status of an application, finally ending up with smart scheduling decisions. It takes into account both network and computing resources and conducts scheduling at a fine-grained level using tuples instead of topologies. The comprehensive evaluation shows that the proposed framework has good performance and can improve the dependability of the Storm-based applications.

  18. Spatial generalized linear mixed models of electric power outages due to hurricanes and ice storms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Haibin; Davidson, Rachel A.; Apanasovich, Tatiyana V.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents new statistical models that predict the number of hurricane- and ice storm-related electric power outages likely to occur in each 3 kmx3 km grid cell in a region. The models are based on a large database of recent outages experienced by three major East Coast power companies in six hurricanes and eight ice storms. A spatial generalized linear mixed modeling (GLMM) approach was used in which spatial correlation is incorporated through random effects. Models were fitted using a composite likelihood approach and the covariance matrix was estimated empirically. A simulation study was conducted to test the model estimation procedure, and model training, validation, and testing were done to select the best models and assess their predictive power. The final hurricane model includes number of protective devices, maximum gust wind speed, hurricane indicator, and company indicator covariates. The final ice storm model includes number of protective devices, ice thickness, and ice storm indicator covariates. The models should be useful for power companies as they plan for future storms. The statistical modeling approach offers a new way to assess the reliability of electric power and other infrastructure systems in extreme events

  19. Solar Drift-Pair Bursts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanislavsky, A.; Volvach, Ya.; Konovalenko, A.; Koval, A.

    2017-08-01

    In this paper a new sight on the study of solar bursts historically called drift pairs (DPs) is presented. Having a simple morphology on dynamic spectra of radio records (two short components separated in time, and often they are very similar) and discovered at the dawn of radio astronomy, their features remain unexplained totally up to now. Generally, the DPs are observed during the solar storms of type III bursts, but not every storm of type III bursts is linked with DPs. Detected by ground-based instruments at decameter and meter wavelengths, the DP bursts are limited in frequency bandwidth. They can drift from high frequencies to low ones and vice versa. Their frequency drift rate may be both lower and higher than typical rates of type III bursts at the same frequency range. The development of low-frequency radio telescopes and data processing provide additional possibilities in the research. In this context the fresh analysis of DPs, made from recent observations in the summer campaign of 2015, are just considered. Their study was implemented by updated tools of the UTR-2 radio telescope at 9-33 MHz. During 10-12 July of 2015, DPs forming the longest patterns on dynamic spectra are about 7% of the total number of recorded DPs. Their marvelous resemblance in frequency drift rates with the solar S-bursts is discussed.

  20. Solar-terrestrial disturbances of June-September 1982, 4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koizumi, Tokuji; Hiidome, Shigeharu; Maeno, Hideo; Oda, Tadashi; Echizenya, Yoshimatsu; Kamishikiryo, Syogo.

    1985-01-01

    As a distinctive feature of the ionosphere observed in 1982, it may be said that the ionospheric disturbances associated with outstanding solar flares occurred frequently, especially that the tendency was remarkable during the period from June to September 1982. First, the feature found is an abnormal increase in fsub(min) on ionograms observed during the period from 4 June to 19 July. Secondly, it contains ionospheric disturbances which appeared in the F-region associated with geomagnetic storms, in the period from 13 to 16 July, from 5 to 8 September and from 21 to 28 September, 1982. Variations in the aspect which ionospheric storms associated with these geomagnetic storms had assumed due to the magnitude of geomagnetic storms, the local time of their occurrence, and their passage were extensively investigated by utilizing data from not only the five Japanese ionospheric stations, but also available eastern Asia, Europe, and so on. The four ionospheric storms investigated had individual characteristics due to the difference among local times of appearance in main phase of geomagnetic storms related to ionospheric storms. The scale of the ionospheric storms associated with a giant geomagnetic storm on July 14 whose drop in horizontal component amounted to 630 nT in its maximum stage was smaller than that on August 4-5, 1972 (359 nT). (author)

  1. New York Solar Smart DG Hub-Resilient Solar Project: Economic and Resiliency Impact of PV and Storage on New York Critical Infrastructure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Kate; Burman, Kari; Simpkins, Travis; Helson, Erica; Lisell, Lars, Case, Tria

    2016-06-01

    Resilient PV, which is solar paired with storage ('solar-plus-storage'), provides value both during normal grid operation and power outages as opposed to traditional solar PV, which functions only when the electric grid is operating. During normal grid operations, resilient PV systems help host sites generate revenue and/or reduce electricity bill charges. During grid outages, resilient PV provides critical emergency power that can help people in need and ease demand on emergency fuel supplies. The combination of grid interruptions during recent storms, the proliferation of solar PV, and the growing deployment of battery storage technologies has generated significant interest in using these assets for both economic and resiliency benefits. This report analyzes the technical and economic viability for resilient PV on three critical infrastructure sites in New York City (NYC): a school that is part of a coastal storm shelter system, a fire station, and a NYCHA senior center that serves as a cooling center during heat emergencies. This analysis differs from previous solar-plus-storage studies by placing a monetary value on resiliency and thus, in essence, modeling a new revenue stream for the avoided cost of a power outage. Analysis results show that resilient PV is economically viable for NYC's critical infrastructure and that it may be similarly beneficial to other commercial buildings across the city. This report will help city building owners, managers, and policymakers better understand the economic and resiliency benefits of resilient PV. As NYC fortifies its building stock against future storms of increasing severity, resilient PV can play an important role in disaster response and recovery while also supporting city greenhouse gas emission reduction targets and relieving stress to the electric grid from growing power demands.

  2. Development of VLF noise storm and its relation to dynamics of magnetosphere during geomagnetic storms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fedyakina, N.I.; Khorosheva, O.V.

    1989-01-01

    Dependence between the development of geomagnetic storm and VLF noise storm is studied. Two conditions should be met for the development of noise storm in VLF-hiss (f ≅ 0.5-10 kHz): a) threshold intensity of electron fluxes with E e > 40 keV in plasma layers; b) the presence of substorms resulting to widening of electron belt and its collision with cold plasma of plasmasphere. The noise storm at the fixed longitude begins about midnight independently of the phase of magnetic storm; Noise storm duration is connected with geomagnetic storm intensity by direct linear relationship

  3. Three-Step Buildup of the 17 March 2015 Storm Ring Current: Implication for the Cause of the Unexpected Storm Intensification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keika, Kunihiro; Seki, Kanako; Nosé, Masahito; Miyoshi, Yoshizumi; Lanzerotti, Louis J.; Mitchell, Donald G.; Gkioulidou, Matina; Manweiler, Jerry W.

    2018-01-01

    We examine the spatiotemporal variations of the energy density and the energy spectral evolution of energetic ions in the inner magnetosphere during the main phase of the 17 March 2015 storm, using data from the RBSPICE and EMFISIS instruments onboard Van Allen Probes. The storm developed in response to two southward IMF intervals separated by about 3 h. In contrast to two steps seen in the Dst/SYM-H index, the ring current ion population evolved in three steps: the first subphase was apparently caused by the earlier southward IMF, and the subsequent subphases occurred during the later southward IMF period. Ion energy ranges that contribute to the ring current differed between the three subphases. We suggest that the spectral evolution resulted from the penetration of different plasma sheet populations. The ring current buildup during the first subphase was caused by the penetration of a relatively low-energy population that had existed in the plasma sheet during a prolonged prestorm northward IMF interval. The deeper penetration of the lower-energy population was responsible for the second subphase. The third subphase, where the storm was unexpectedly intensified to a Dst/SYM-H level of population. We attribute the hot, dense population to the entry of hot, dense solar wind into the plasma sheet and/or ion heating/acceleration in the near-Earth plasma sheet associated with magnetotail activity such as reconnection and dipolarization.

  4. Geomagnetic storm related to intense solar radio burst type II and III ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The strong energetic particles ejected during sun's activity will propagate towards earth and contribute to solar radio bursts. These solar radio bursts can be detected using CALLISTO system. The open website of the NASA provides us the data including CALLISTO, TESIS, solar monitor, SOHO and space weather. The type ...

  5. Geomagnetic Storm Sudden Commencements

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Storm Sudden Commencements (ssc) 1868 to present: STORM1 and STORM2 Lists: (Some text here is taken from the International Association of Geomagnetism and Aeronomy...

  6. Extreme Conditions Modeling Workshop Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coe, Ryan Geoffrey [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Neary, Vincent Sinclair [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lawon, Michael J. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Yu, Yi-Hsiang [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Weber, Jochem [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2014-07-01

    Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) hosted the Wave Energy Converter (WEC) Extreme Conditions Modeling (ECM) Workshop in Albuquerque, New Mexico on May 13–14, 2014. The objective of the workshop was to review the current state of knowledge on how to numerically and experimentally model WECs in extreme conditions (e.g. large ocean storms) and to suggest how national laboratory resources could be used to improve ECM methods for the benefit of the wave energy industry. More than 30 U.S. and European WEC experts from industry, academia, and national research institutes attended the workshop, which consisted of presentations from W EC developers, invited keynote presentations from subject matter experts, breakout sessions, and a final plenary session .

  7. Reconstruction of solar wind features that caused a super geomagnetic storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lui, A. T. Y.; Gonzalez, W. D.

    2013-06-01

    A superstorm with Dst < -300 nT can cause major space disturbances. We examine one on March 31, 2001 that has the minimum Dst of -387 nT and obtain two-dimensional maps in pressure and magnetic field of the sheath region and a magnetic cloud behind it. Both the sheath and the magnetic cloud play a role in building the storm strength. Several properties of the magnetic cloud are inferred, including an estimated total magnetic flux of ~6.5×1012 Wb.

  8. Numerical Modelling of Extreme Natural Hazards in the Russian Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arkhipkin, Victor; Dobrolyubov, Sergey; Korablina, Anastasia; Myslenkov, Stanislav; Surkova, Galina

    2017-04-01

    Storm surges and extreme waves are severe natural sea hazards. Due to the almost complete lack of natural observations of these phenomena in the Russian seas (Caspian, Black, Azov, Baltic, White, Barents, Okhotsk, Kara), especially about their formation, development and destruction, they have been studied using numerical simulation. To calculate the parameters of wind waves for the seas listed above, except the Barents Sea, the spectral model SWAN was applied. For the Barents and Kara seas we used WAVEWATCH III model. Formation and development of storm surges were studied using ADCIRC model. The input data for models - bottom topography, wind, atmospheric pressure and ice cover. In modeling of surges in the White and Barents seas tidal level fluctuations were used. They have been calculated from 16 harmonic constant obtained from global atlas tides FES2004. Wind, atmospheric pressure and ice cover was taken from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the period from 1948 to 2010, and NCEP/CFSR reanalysis for the period from 1979 to 2015. In modeling we used both regular and unstructured grid. The wave climate of the Caspian, Black, Azov, Baltic and White seas was obtained. Also the extreme wave height possible once in 100 years has been calculated. The statistics of storm surges for the White, Barents and Azov Seas were evaluated. The contribution of wind and atmospheric pressure in the formation of surges was estimated. The technique of climatic forecast frequency of storm synoptic situations was developed and applied for every sea. The research was carried out with financial support of the RFBR (grant 16-08-00829).

  9. Changes in extreme events and the potential impacts on human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Jesse E; Brown, Claudia Langford; Conlon, Kathryn; Herring, Stephanie; Kunkel, Kenneth E; Lawrimore, Jay; Luber, George; Schreck, Carl; Smith, Adam; Uejio, Christopher

    2018-04-01

    Extreme weather and climate-related events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, dust storms, flooding rains, coastal flooding, storm surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden. More information is needed about the impacts of climate change on public health and economies to effectively plan for and adapt to climate change. This paper describes some of the ways extreme events are changing and provides examples of the potential impacts on human health and infrastructure. It also identifies key research gaps to be addressed to improve the resilience of public health to extreme events in the future. Extreme weather and climate events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, flooding rains, coastal flooding, surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden.

  10. Shoreline resilience to individual storms and storm clusters on a meso-macrotidal barred beach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Angnuureng, Donatus Bapentire; Almar, Rafael; Senechal, Nadia; Castelle, Bruno; Addo, Kwasi Appeaning; Marieu, Vincent; Ranasinghe, Roshanka

    2017-01-01

    This study investigates the impact of individual storms and storm clusters on shoreline recovery for the meso-to macrotidal, barred Biscarrosse beach in SW France, using 6 years of daily video observations. While the study area experienced 60 storms during the 6-year study period, only 36 storms

  11. Compound simulation of fluvial floods and storm surges in a global coupled river-coast flood model : Model development and its application to 2007 Cyclone Sidr in Bangladesh

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ikeuchi, Hiroaki; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Yamazaki, Dai; Muis, Sanne; Ward, Philip J.; Winsemius, Hessel C.; Verlaan, Martin; Kanae, Shinjiro

    2017-01-01

    Water-related disasters, such as fluvial floods and cyclonic storm surges, are a major concern in the world's mega-delta regions. Furthermore, the simultaneous occurrence of extreme discharges from rivers and storm surges could exacerbate flood risk, compared to when they occur separately. Hence, it

  12. Empirical model for the electron density peak height disturbance in response to solar wind conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanch, E.; Altadill, D.

    2009-04-01

    Geomagnetic storms disturb the quiet behaviour of the ionosphere, its electron density and the electron density peak height, hmF2. Many works have been done to predict the variations of the electron density but few efforts have been dedicated to predict the variations the hmF2 under disturbed helio-geomagnetic conditions. We present the results of the analyses of the F2 layer peak height disturbances occurred during intense geomagnetic storms for one solar cycle. The results systematically show a significant peak height increase about 2 hours after the beginning of the main phase of the geomagnetic storm, independently of both the local time position of the station at the onset of the storm and the intensity of the storm. An additional uplift is observed in the post sunset sector. The duration of the uplift and the height increase are dependent of the intensity of the geomagnetic storm, the season and the local time position of the station at the onset of the storm. An empirical model has been developed to predict the electron density peak height disturbances in response to solar wind conditions and local time which can be used for nowcasting and forecasting the hmF2 disturbances for the middle latitude ionosphere. This being an important output for EURIPOS project operational purposes.

  13. The effects of storms and storm-generated currents on sand beaches in Southern Maine, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, H.W.; Kelley, J.T.; Belknap, D.F.; Dickson, S.M.

    2004-01-01

    Storms are one of the most important controls on the cycle of erosion and accretion on beaches. Current meters placed in shoreface locations of Saco Bay and Wells Embayment, ME, recorded bottom currents during the winter months of 2000 and 2001, while teams of volunteers profiled the topography of nearby beaches. Coupling offshore meteorological and beach profile data made it possible to determine the response of nine beaches in southern Maine to various oceanographic and meteorological conditions. The beaches selected for profiling ranged from pristine to completely developed and permitted further examination of the role of seawalls on the response of beaches to storms. Current meters documented three unique types of storms: frontal passages, southwest storms, and northeast storms. In general, the current meter results indicate that frontal passages and southwest storms were responsible for bringing sediment towards the shore, while northeast storms resulted in a net movement of sediment away from the beach. During the 1999-2000 winter, there were a greater percentage of frontal passages and southwest storms, while during the 2000-2001 winter, there were more northeast storms. The sediment that was transported landward during the 1999-2000 winter was reworked into the berm along moderately and highly developed beaches during the next summer. A northeast storm on March 5-6, 2001, resulted in currents in excess of 1 m s-1 and wave heights that reached six meters. The storm persisted over 10 high tides and caused coastal flooding and property damage. Topographic profiles made before and after the storm demonstrate that developed beaches experienced a loss of sediment volume during the storm, while sediment was redistributed along the profile on moderately developed and undeveloped beaches. Two months after the storm, the profiles along the developed beaches had not reached their pre-storm elevation. In comparison, the moderately developed and undeveloped beaches

  14. Thermospheric mass density variations during geomagnetic storms and a prediction model based on the merging electric field

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Liu

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available With the help of four years (2002–2005 of CHAMP accelerometer data we have investigated the dependence of low and mid latitude thermospheric density on the merging electric field, Em, during major magnetic storms. Altogether 30 intensive storm events (Dstmin<−100 nT are chosen for a statistical study. In order to achieve a good correlation Em is preconditioned. Contrary to general opinion, Em has to be applied without saturation effect in order to obtain good results for magnetic storms of all activity levels. The memory effect of the thermosphere is accounted for by a weighted integration of Em over the past 3 h. In addition, a lag time of the mass density response to solar wind input of 0 to 4.5 h depending on latitude and local time is considered. A linear model using the preconditioned Em as main controlling parameter for predicting mass density changes during magnetic storms is developed: ρ=0.5 Em + ρamb, where ρamb is based on the mean density during the quiet day before the storm. We show that this simple relation predicts all storm-induced mass density variations at CHAMP altitude fairly well especially if orbital averages are considered.

  15. The influence of solar active region evolution on solar wind streams, coronal hole boundaries and geomagnetic storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gold, R. E.; Dodson-Prince, H. W.; Hedeman, E. R.; Roelof, E. C.

    1982-01-01

    Solar and interplanetary data are examined, taking into account the identification of the heliographic longitudes of the coronal source regions of high speed solar wind (SW) streams by Nolte and Roelof (1973). Nolte and Roelof have 'mapped' the velocities measured near earth back to the sun using the approximation of constant radial velocity. The 'Carrington carpet' for rotations 1597-1616 is shown in a graph. Coronal sources of high speed streams appear in the form of solid black areas. The contours of the stream sources are laid on 'evolutionary charts' of solar active region histories for the Southern and Northern Hemispheres. Questions regarding the interplay of active regions and solar wind are investigated, giving attention to developments during the years 1973, 1974, and 1975.

  16. Using EPA Tools and Data Services to Inform Changes to Design Storm Definitions for Wastewater Utilities based on Climate Model Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tryby, M.; Fries, J. S.; Baranowski, C.

    2014-12-01

    Extreme precipitation events can cause significant impacts to drinking water and wastewater utilities, including facility damage, water quality impacts, service interruptions and potential risks to human health and the environment due to localized flooding and combined sewer overflows (CSOs). These impacts will become more pronounced with the projected increases in frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events due to climate change. To model the impacts of extreme precipitation events, wastewater utilities often develop Intensity, Duration, and Frequency (IDF) rainfall curves and "design storms" for use in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). Wastewater utilities use SWMM for planning, analysis, and facility design related to stormwater runoff, combined and sanitary sewers, and other drainage systems in urban and non-urban areas. SWMM tracks (1) the quantity and quality of runoff made within each sub-catchment; and (2) the flow rate, flow depth, and quality of water in each pipe and channel during a simulation period made up of multiple time steps. In its current format, EPA SWMM does not consider climate change projection data. Climate change may affect the relationship between intensity, duration, and frequency described by past rainfall events. Therefore, EPA is integrating climate projection data available in the Climate Resilience Evaluation and Awareness Tool (CREAT) into SWMM. CREAT is a climate risk assessment tool for utilities that provides downscaled climate change projection data for changes in the amount of rainfall in a 24-hour period for various extreme precipitation events (e.g., from 5-year to 100-year storm events). Incorporating climate change projections into SWMM will provide wastewater utilities with more comprehensive data they can use in planning for future storm events, thereby reducing the impacts to the utility and customers served from flooding and stormwater issues.

  17. Superstorms of November 2003 and 2004: the role of solar wind driving in the ionosphere-thermosphere dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verkhoglyadova, O. P.; Komjathy, A.; Mannucci, A. J.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Hunt, L. A.; Paxton, L. J.

    2017-12-01

    We revisit three complex superstorms of 19-20 November 2003, 7-8 November 2004 and 9-11 November 2004 to analyze ionosphere-thermosphere (IT) effects driven by different solar wind structures. We distinguish structures associated with ICMEs and their upstream sheaths. The efficiencies of the solar wind-magnetosphere connection throughout the storms are estimated by coupling functions. The daytime IT responses to the complex driving are characterized by combining measurements of characteristic IT parameters. We focus on low- and middle-latitude TEC, global thermospheric infrared nitric oxide emission, composition ratio and locations of the auroral boundary obtained from multiple satellite platforms and ground-based measurements (GPS, TIMED/SABER, TIMED/GUVI, DMSP/SSUSI). A variety of metrics are utilized to examine IT phenomena at 1 hour time scales. It is well-known that the November storm periods featured TEC responses that did not fit a typical pattern. The role of direct driving of IT dynamics by solar wind structures and the role of IT pre-conditioning in these storms are examined to explain the complex unusual ionospheric responses. We identify IT feedback effects that can be important for long-lasting strong storms.

  18. Changes in the probability of co-occurring extreme climate events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diffenbaugh, N. S.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme climate events such as floods, droughts, heatwaves, and severe storms exert acute stresses on natural and human systems. When multiple extreme events co-occur, either in space or time, the impacts can be substantially compounded. A diverse set of human interests - including supply chains, agricultural commodities markets, reinsurance, and deployment of humanitarian aid - have historically relied on the rarity of extreme events to provide a geographic hedge against the compounded impacts of co-occuring extremes. However, changes in the frequency of extreme events in recent decades imply that the probability of co-occuring extremes is also changing, and is likely to continue to change in the future in response to additional global warming. This presentation will review the evidence for historical changes in extreme climate events and the response of extreme events to continued global warming, and will provide some perspective on methods for quantifying changes in the probability of co-occurring extremes in the past and future.

  19. Flight attendant radiation dose from solar particle events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Jeri L; Mertens, Christopher J; Grajewski, Barbara; Luo, Lian; Tseng, Chih-Yu; Cassinelli, Rick T

    2014-08-01

    Research has suggested that work as a flight attendant may be related to increased risk for reproductive health effects. Air cabin exposures that may influence reproductive health include radiation dose from galactic cosmic radiation and solar particle events. This paper describes the assessment of radiation dose accrued during solar particle events as part of a reproductive health study of flight attendants. Solar storm data were obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Space Weather Prediction Center list of solar proton events affecting the Earth environment to ascertain storms relevant to the two study periods (1992-1996 and 1999-2001). Radiation dose from exposure to solar energetic particles was estimated using the NAIRAS model in conjunction with galactic cosmic radiation dose calculated using the CARI-6P computer program. Seven solar particle events were determined to have potential for significant radiation exposure, two in the first study period and five in the second study period, and over-lapped with 24,807 flight segments. Absorbed (and effective) flight segment doses averaged 6.5 μGy (18 μSv) and 3.1 μGy (8.3 μSv) for the first and second study periods, respectively. Maximum doses were as high as 440 μGy (1.2 mSv) and 20 flight segments had doses greater than 190 μGy (0.5 mSv). During solar particle events, a pregnant flight attendant could potentially exceed the equivalent dose limit to the conceptus of 0.5 mSv in a month recommended by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements.

  20. Solar effects on communications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cleveland, F.; Malcolm, W.; Nordell, D.E.; Zirker, J.

    1991-01-01

    When people involved in the power industry think of Solar Magnetic Disturbances (SMD), they normally consider the potential for disrupting power transmission which results form solar-induced disturbances to the earth's magnetic field known as geomagnetic storms. However, in addition to the disruption of power transmission, solar phenomena can interfere with utility communication systems. Utilities use many different types of communication media, some of which can be affected by various solar phenomena. These include wire-based facilities (metallic cables and power line carrier), radio systems (HF, VHF, UHF mobile radio, microwave networks, and satellite transmissions), and fiber optic systems. This paper reports that the solar flares and other solar phenomena can affect these media through different mechanisms: Radio communications can be disturbed by flare-induced changes in the ionispheric layer of the atmosphere; Cable communications can be disrupted by the flare-induced changes in the magnetosphere which surrounds the earth. These changes, in turn, induce currents in the power equipment that energizes long communications cables; Satellite communications can be disrupted by the flare-induced perturbations of satellite orbits and equipment

  1. In the Eye of the Storm: A Participatory Course on Coastal Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis, Scott

    2013-01-01

    Storm disasters are amplified in the coastal environment due to population pressures and the power of the sea. The upper-division/graduate university course "Coastal Storms" was designed to equip future practitioners with the skills necessary to understand, respond to, and mitigate for these natural disasters. To accomplish this, "Coastal Storms"…

  2. The statistical analysis of the Geomagnetically Induced Current events occurred in Guangdong, China during the declining phase of solar cycle 23 (2003–2006)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ni, Y. Y.

    2018-03-01

    We study the interplanetary causes of intense geomagnetic storms (Dst ≤ -100 nT) and the corresponding Geomagnetically Induced Current (GIC) events occurred in Ling’ao nuclear power station, Guangdong during the declining phase of solar cycle 23 (2003–2006). The result shows that sMC (a magnetic cloud with a shock), SH (sheath) and SH+MC (a sheath followed by a magnetic cloud) are the three most common interplanetary structures responsible for the storms which will cause GIC events in this period. As an interplanetary structure, CIR (corotating interaction regions) also plays an important role, however, the CIR-driven storms have a relatively minor effect to the GIC. Among the interplanetary parameters, the solar wind velocity and the southward component of the IMF (interplanetary magnetic field) are more important than solar wind density and the temperature to a geomagnetic storm and GIC.

  3. Magnetic and solar effects on ionospheric absorption at high latitude

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Pietrella

    2002-06-01

    Full Text Available Some periods of intense solar events and of strong magnetic storms have been selected and their effects on the ionospheric D region have been investigated on the basis of ionospheric absorption data derived from riometer measurements made at the Italian Antarctic Base of Terra Nova Bay (geographic coordinates: 74.69 S, 164.12 E; geomagnetic coordinates: 77.34 S, 279.41 E. It was found that sharp increases in ionospheric absorption are mainly due to solar protons emission with an energy greater than 10 MeV. Moreover, the day to night ratios of the ionospheric absorption are greater than 2 in the case of strong events of energetic protons emitted by the Sun, while during magnetic storms, these ratios range between 1 and 2.

  4. Nippon Storm Study design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takashi Kurita

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available An understanding of the clinical aspects of electrical storm (E-storms in patients with implantable cardiac shock devices (ICSDs: ICDs or cardiac resynchronization therapy with defibrillator [CRT-D] may provide important information for clinical management of patients with ICSDs. The Nippon Storm Study was organized by the Japanese Heart Rhythm Society (JHRS and Japanese Society of Electrocardiology and was designed to prospectively collect a variety of data from patients with ICSDs, with a focus on the incidence of E-storms and clinical conditions for the occurrence of an E-storm. Forty main ICSD centers in Japan are participating in the present study. From 2002, the JHRS began to collect ICSD patient data using website registration (termed Japanese cardiac defibrillator therapy registration, or JCDTR. This investigation aims to collect data on and investigate the general parameters of patients with ICSDs, such as clinical backgrounds of the patients, purposes of implantation, complications during the implantation procedure, and incidence of appropriate and inappropriate therapies from the ICSD. The Nippon Storm Study was planned as a sub-study of the JCDTR with focus on E-storms. We aim to achieve registration of more than 1000 ICSD patients and complete follow-up data collection, with the assumption of a 5–10% incidence of E-storms during the 2-year follow-up.

  5. Return Period of a Sea Storm with at Least Two Waves Higher than a Fixed Threshold

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felice Arena

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Practical applications in ocean engineering require the long-term analysis for prediction of extreme waves, that identify design conditions. If extreme individual waves are investigated, we need to combine long-term statistical analysis of ocean waves with short-term statistics. The former considers the distribution of standard deviation of free surface displacement in the considered location in a long-time span, of order of 10 years or more. The latter analyzes the distribution of individual wave heights in a sea state, which is a Gaussian process in time domain. Recent advanced approaches enable the combination of the two analyses. In the paper the analytical solution is obtained for the return period of a sea storm with at least two individual waves higher than a fixed level. This solution is based on the application of the Equivalent Triangular Storm model for the representation of actual storms. One of the corollaries of the solution gives the exact expression for the probability that at least two waves higher than fixed level are produced during the lifetime of a structure. The previous solution of return period and the relative probability of exceedance may be effectively applied for the risk analysis of ocean structures.

  6. PC index as a proxy of the solar wind energy that entered into the magnetosphere and energy accumulated in the magnetosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Troshichev, Oleg; Sormakov, Dmitry

    The PC index has been approved by the International Association of Geomagnetism and Aeronomy (Merida, Mexico, 2013) as a new international index of magnetic activity. Application of the PC index as a proxy of a solar wind energy that entered into the magnetosphere determines a principal distinction of the PC index from AL and Dst indices, which are regarded as characteristics of the energy that realized in magnetosphere in form of substorms and magnetic storms. This conclusion is based on results of analysis of relationships between the polar cap magnetic activity (PC-index) and parameters of the solar wind, on the one hand, relationships between changes of PC and development of magnetospheric substorms (AL-index) and magnetic storms (Dst-index), on the other hand. In this study the relationships between the PC and Dst indices in course of more than 200 magnetic storms observed in epoch of solar maximum (1998-2004) have been examined for different classes of storms separated by their kind and intensity. Results of statistical analysis demonstrate that depression of geomagnetic field starts to develop as soon as PC index steadily excess the threshold level ~1.5 mV/m; the storm intensity (DstMIN) follows, with delay ~ 1 hour, the maximum of PC in course of the storm. Main features of magnetic storms are determined, irrespective of their class and intensity, by the accumulated-mean PC value (PCAM): storm is developed as long as PCAM increases, comes to maximal intensity when PCAM attains the maximum, and starts to decay as soon as PCAM value displays decline. The run of “anomalous” magnetic storm on January 21-22, 2005, lasting many hours (with intensity of ≈ -100 nT) under conditions of northward or close to zero BZ component, is perfectly governed by behavior of the accumulated-mean PCAM index and, therefore, this storm should be regarded as an ordinary phenomenon. The conclusion is made that the PC index provides the unique on-line information on solar wind

  7. Extreme beach retreat history inferred from cut-and-fill beach deposits at Moruya, SE Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamura, T.; Woodroffe, C. D.; Oliver, T.; Cunningham, A. C.

    2017-12-01

    A sequence of beach ridges often records a `cut and fill', where the fair-weather swash accretion of beach sand is punctuated by storm erosion. The detailed chronology of the sequence is thus a clue to decipher past storm events and associated beach erosion, but has not been explored much. Here we explore the potential of such a sequence to detect past extreme retreats in Bengello Beach at Moruya, southeastern Australia. Beach monitoring since 1972 reveals that Bengello beach has shown a typical cut and fill, in which the beach retreats several tens of meters in relation to storms and recovers within a following few years. A storm event caused extreme retreat up to 50 m in 1974. Since then, no retreat exceeded 30 m. The beach monitoring highlights the sporadic nature of the prograded beach deposits; they can only be preserved as stratigraphic records during rapid beach recovery following a large retreat deeper than the beach profile envelope. Thus, ages of the preserved beach deposits roughly correspond to timings of large retreat. Optically-stimulated luminescence (OSL) ages were determined for beach deposits at 5-10 m intervals along a shore-normal transect from the modern foredune to beach ridge 120 m inland. The most landward sample was dated as 510 yr, indicating that the net progradation rate is 0.24 m/yr, concordant with both the long- and short-term rates since the mid Holocene and 1972, respectively. Other ages show four events of retreat around 350, 180, 130 and 90 yr, and also reflect the beach scarp resulting from the 1974 event. The retreat of each event is given by the distance between the shoreline position prior to storm erosion and relevant gap in OSL age. The position of the pre-storm shoreline is estimated by assuming a constant rate of the net progradation of 0.24 m/yr, as with long- and short-term rates. The retreat of the four events is then determined as 45-55 m, similar to the 1974 event. In summary, extreme beach retreats, including that in

  8. A first generation numerical geomagnetic storm prediction scheme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akasofu, S.-I.; Fry, C.F.

    1986-01-01

    Because geomagnetic and auroral disturbances cause significant interference on many electrical systems, it is essential to develop a reliable geomagnetic and auroral storm prediction scheme. A first generation numerical prediction scheme has been developed. The scheme consists of two major computer codes which in turn consist of a large number of subroutine codes and of empirical relationships. First of all, when a solar flare occurs, six flare parameters are determined as the input data set for the first code which is devised to show the simulated propagation of solar wind disturbances in the heliosphere to a distance of 2 a.u. Thus, one can determine the relative location of the propagating disturbances with the Earth's position. The solar wind speed and the three interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) components are then computed as a function of time at the Earth's location or any other desired (space probe) locations. These quantities in turn become the input parameters for the second major code which computes first the power of the solar wind-magnetosphere dynamo as a function of time. The power thus obtained and the three IMF components can be used to compute or infer: the predicted geometry of the auroral oval; the cross-polar cap potential; the two geomagnetic indices AE and Dst; the total energy injection rate into the polar ionosphere; and the atmospheric temperature, etc. (author)

  9. Historical changes in the Mississippi-Alabama barrier islands and the roles of extreme storms, sea level, and human activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, Robert A.

    2007-01-01

    An historical analysis of images and documents shows that the Mississippi-Alabama (MS-AL) barrier islands are undergoing rapid land loss and translocation. The barrier island chain formed and grew at a time when there was a surplus of sand in the alongshore sediment transport system, a condition that no longer prevails. The islands, except Cat, display alternating wide and marrow segments. Wide segments generally were products of low rates of inlet migration and spit elongation that resulted in well-defined ridges and swales formed by wave refraction along the inlet margins. In contrast, rapid rates of inlet migration and spit elongation under conditions of surplus sand produced low, narrow, straight barrier segments. Since the mid 1800s, average rates of land loss for all the MS islands accelerated systematically while maintaining consistency from island to island. In contrast, Dauphin Island, off the Alabama coast, gained land during the early 20th century and then began to lose land at rates comparable to those of the MS barriers. There is an inverse relationship between island size and percentage of land reduction for each barrier such that Horn Island lost 24% and Ship Island lost 64% of its area since the mid 1800s. Ship Island is particularly vulnerable to storm-driven land losses because topographic and bathymetric boundary conditions focus wave energy onto the island. The three predominant morphodynamic processes associated with land loss are: (1) unequal lateral transfer of sand related to greater updrift erosion compared to downdrift deposition, (2) barrier narrowing resulting from simultaneous erosion of the Gulf and Soundside shores, and (3) barrier segmentation related to storm breaching. The western three fourths of Dauphin Island are migrating landward as a result of storms that erode the Gulf shore, overwash the island, and deposit sand in Mississippi Sound. Petit Bois, Horn, and Ship Islands have migrated westward as a result of predominant

  10. Prediciting Solar Activity: Today, Tomorrow, Next Year

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesnell, William Dean

    2008-01-01

    Fleets of satellites circle the Earth collecting science data, protecting astronauts, and relaying information. All of these satellites are sensitive at some level to space weather effects. Predictions of drag on LEO spacecraft are one of the most important. Launching a satellite with less fuel can mean a higher orbit, but unanticipated solar activity and increased drag can make that a Pyrrhic victory. Energetic events at the Sun can produce crippling radiation storms. Predicting those events that will affect our assets in space includes a solar prediction and how the radiation will propagate through the solar system. I will talk our need for solar activity predictions and anticipate how those predictions could be made more accurate in the future.

  11. Dst Prediction Based on Solar Wind Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoon-Kyung Park

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available We reevaluate the Burton equation (Burton et al. 1975 of predicting Dst index using high quality hourly solar wind data supplied by the ACE satellite for the period from 1998 to 2006. Sixty magnetic storms with monotonously decreasing main phase are selected. In order to determine the injection term (Q and the decay time (tau of the equation, we examine the relationships between Dst* and VB_s, Delta Dst* and VB_s, and Delta Dst* and Dst* during the magnetic storms. For this analysis, we take into account one hour of the propagation time from the ACE satellite to the magnetopause, and a half hour of the response time of the magnetosphere/ring current to the solar wind forcing. The injection term is found to be Q({nT}/h=-3.56VB_s for VB_s>0.5mV/m and Q({nT}/h=0 for VB_s leq0.5mV/m. The tau (hour is estimated as 0.060 Dst* + 16.65 for Dst*>-175nT and 6.15 hours for Dst* leq -175nT. Based on these empirical relationships, we predict the 60 magnetic storms and find that the correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted Dst* is 0.88. To evaluate the performance of our prediction scheme, the 60 magnetic storms are predicted again using the models by Burton et al. (1975 and O'Brien & McPherron (2000a. The correlation coefficients thus obtained are 0.85, the same value for both of the two models. In this respect, our model is slightly improved over the other two models as far as the correlation coefficients is concerned. Particularly our model does a better job than the other two models in predicting intense magnetic storms (Dst* lesssim -200nT.

  12. Handbook of the Solar-Terrestrial Environment

    CERN Document Server

    Kamide, Y

    2007-01-01

    The Handbook of the Solar-Terrestrial Environment is a unique compendium. Recognized international leaders in their field contribute chapters on basic topics of solar physics, space plasmas and the Earth's magnetosphere, and on applied topics like the aurora, magnetospheric storms, space weather, space climatology and planetary science. This book will be of highest value as a reference for researchers working in the area of planetary and space science. However, it is also written in a style accessible to graduate students majoring in those fields.

  13. Ionospheric Storm Effects and Equatorial Plasma Irregularities During the 17-18 March 2015 Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yun-Liang; Luhr, Hermann; Xiong, Chao; Pfaff, Robert F.

    2016-01-01

    The intense magnetic storm on 17-18 March 2015 caused large disturbances of the ionosphere. Based on the plasma density (Ni) observations performed by the Swarm fleet of satellites, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment mission, and the Communications/Navigation Outage Forecasting System satellite, we characterize the storm-related perturbations at low latitudes. All these satellites sampled the ionosphere in morning and evening time sectors where large modifications occurred. Modifications of plasma density are closely related to changes of the solar wind merging electric field (E (sub m)). We consider two mechanisms, prompt penetration electric field (PPEF) and disturbance dynamo electric field (DDEF), as the main cause for the Ni redistribution, but effects of meridional wind are also taken into account. At the start of the storm main phase, the PPEF is enhancing plasma density on the dayside and reducing it on the nightside. Later, DDEF takes over and causes the opposite reaction. Unexpectedly, there appears during the recovery phase a strong density enhancement in the morning/pre-noon sector and a severe Ni reduction in the afternoon/evening sector, and we suggest a combined effect of vertical plasma drift, and meridional wind is responsible for these ionospheric storm effects. Different from earlier studies about this storm, we also investigate the influence of storm dynamics on the initiation of equatorial plasma irregularities (EPIs). Shortly after the start of the storm main phase, EPIs appear in the post-sunset sector. As a response to a short-lived decline of E (sub m), EPI activity appears in the early morning sector. Following the second start of the main phase, EPIs are generated for a few hours in the late evening sector. However, for the rest of the storm main phase, no more EPIs are initiated for more than 12 hours. Only after the onset of recovery phase does EPI activity start again in the post-midnight sector, lasting more than 7 hours

  14. Biological effects of geomagnetic storms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chibisov, S.M.; Breus, T.K.; Levitin, A.E.; Drogova, G.M.; AN SSSR, Moscow; AN SSSR, Moscow

    1995-01-01

    Six physiological parameters of cardio-vascular system of rabbits and ultrastructure of cardiomyocytes were investigated during two planetary geomagnetic storms. At the initial and main phase of the storm the normal circadian structure in each cardiovascular parameter was lost. The disynchronozis was growing together with the storm and abrupt drop of cardia activity was observed during the main phase of storm. The main phase of storm followed by the destruction and degradation of cardiomyocytes. Parameters of cardia activity became substantially synchronized and characterized by circadian rhythm structure while the amplitude of deviations was still significant at the recovery stage of geomagnetic storm. 3 refs.; 7 figs

  15. SYMPATHETIC SOLAR FILAMENT ERUPTIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Rui; Liu, Ying D.; Zimovets, Ivan; Hu, Huidong; Yang, Zhongwei [State Key Laboratory of Space Weather, National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Dai, Xinghua, E-mail: liuxying@spaceweather.ac.cn [Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100012 (China)

    2016-08-10

    The 2015 March 15 coronal mass ejection as one of the two that together drove the largest geomagnetic storm of solar cycle 24 so far was associated with sympathetic filament eruptions. We investigate the relations between the different filaments involved in the eruption. A surge-like small-scale filament motion is confirmed as the trigger that initiated the erupting filament with multi-wavelength observations and using a forced magnetic field extrapolation method. When the erupting filament moved to an open magnetic field region, it experienced an obvious acceleration process and was accompanied by a C-class flare and the rise of another larger filament that eventually failed to erupt. We measure the decay index of the background magnetic field, which presents a critical height of 118 Mm. Combining with a potential field source surface extrapolation method, we analyze the distributions of the large-scale magnetic field, which indicates that the open magnetic field region may provide a favorable condition for F2 rapid acceleration and have some relation with the largest solar storm. The comparison between the successful and failed filament eruptions suggests that the confining magnetic field plays an important role in the preconditions for an eruption.

  16. Storm water runoff concentration matrix for urban areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Göbel, P.; Dierkes, C.; Coldewey, W. G.

    2007-04-01

    The infrastructure (roads, sidewalk, commercial and residential structures) added during the land development and urbanisation process is designed to collect precipitation and convey it out of the watershed, typically in existing surface water channels, such as streams and rivers. The quality of surface water, seepage water and ground water is influenced by pollutants that collect on impervious surfaces and that are carried by urban storm water runoff. Heavy metals, e.g. lead (Pb), zinc (Zn), copper (Cu), cadmium (Cd), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH), mineral oil hydrocarbons (MOH) and readily soluble salts in runoff, contribute to the degradation of water. An intensive literature search on the distribution and concentration of the surface-dependent runoff water has been compiled. Concentration variations of several pollutants derived from different surfaces have been averaged. More than 300 references providing about 1300 data for different pollutants culminate in a representative concentration matrix consisting of medians and extreme values. This matrix can be applied to long-term valuations and numerical modelling of storm water treatment facilities.

  17. Catastrophe loss modelling of storm-surge flood risk in eastern England.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muir Wood, Robert; Drayton, Michael; Berger, Agnete; Burgess, Paul; Wright, Tom

    2005-06-15

    Probabilistic catastrophe loss modelling techniques, comprising a large stochastic set of potential storm-surge flood events, each assigned an annual rate of occurrence, have been employed for quantifying risk in the coastal flood plain of eastern England. Based on the tracks of the causative extratropical cyclones, historical storm-surge events are categorized into three classes, with distinct windfields and surge geographies. Extreme combinations of "tide with surge" are then generated for an extreme value distribution developed for each class. Fragility curves are used to determine the probability and magnitude of breaching relative to water levels and wave action for each section of sea defence. Based on the time-history of water levels in the surge, and the simulated configuration of breaching, flow is time-stepped through the defences and propagated into the flood plain using a 50 m horizontal-resolution digital elevation model. Based on the values and locations of the building stock in the flood plain, losses are calculated using vulnerability functions linking flood depth and flood velocity to measures of property loss. The outputs from this model for a UK insurance industry portfolio include "loss exceedence probabilities" as well as "average annualized losses", which can be employed for calculating coastal flood risk premiums in each postcode.

  18. High-latitude topside ionospheric vertical electron density profile changes in response to large magnetic storms

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Benson, R. F.; Fainberg, J.; Osherovich, V. A.; Truhlík, Vladimír; Wang, Y.; Bilitza, D.; Fung, S. F.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 51, č. 5 (2016), s. 524-537 ISSN 0048-6604 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GC15-07281J Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : topside ionosphere * magnetic storm * solar wind Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.581, year: 2016 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015RS005882/full

  19. The postsunset vertical plasma drift during geomagnetic storms and its effects on the generation of equatorial spread F

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, C.

    2017-12-01

    We will present two distinct phenomena related to the postsunset vertical plasma drift and equatorial spread F (ESF) observed by the Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System satellite over six years. The first phenomenon is the behavior of the prereversal enhancement (PRE) of the vertical plasma drift during geomagnetic storms. Statistically, storm-time disturbance dynamo electric fields cause the PRE to decrease from 30 to 0 m/s when Dst changes from -60 to -100 nT, but the PRE does not show obvious variations when Dst varies from 0 to -60 nT. The observations show that the storm activities affect the evening equatorial ionosphere only for Dst correlated with the PRE and that the occurrence of small-amplitude ESF irregularities does not show a clear pattern at low solar activity but is anti-correlated with large-amplitude irregularities and the PRE at moderate solar activity. That is, the months and longitudes with high occurrence probability of large-amplitude irregularities are exactly those with low occurrence probability of small-amplitude irregularities, and vice versa. The generation of large-amplitude ESF irregularities is controlled by the PRE, and the generation of small-amplitude ESF irregularities may be caused by gravity waves and other disturbances, rather than by the PRE.

  20. Total electron content responses to HILDCAAs and geomagnetic storms over South America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. M. de Siqueira Negreti

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Total electron content (TEC is extensively used to monitor the ionospheric behavior under geomagnetically quiet and disturbed conditions. This subject is of greatest importance for space weather applications. Under disturbed conditions the two main sources of electric fields, which are responsible for changes in the plasma drifts and for current perturbations, are the short-lived prompt penetration electric fields (PPEFs and the longer-lasting ionospheric disturbance dynamo (DD electric fields. Both mechanisms modulate the TEC around the globe and the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA at low latitudes. In this work we computed vertical absolute TEC over the low latitude of South America. The analysis was performed considering HILDCAA (high-intensity, long-duration, continuous auroral electrojet (AE activity events and geomagnetic storms. The characteristics of storm-time TEC and HILDCAA-associated TEC will be presented and discussed. For both case studies presented in this work (March and August 2013 the HILDCAA event follows a geomagnetic storm, and then a global scenario of geomagnetic disturbances will be discussed. Solar wind parameters, geomagnetic indices, O ∕ N2 ratios retrieved by GUVI instrument onboard the TIMED satellite and TEC observations will be analyzed and discussed. Data from the RBMC/IBGE (Brazil and IGS GNSS networks were used to calculate TEC over South America. We show that a HILDCAA event may generate larger TEC differences compared to the TEC observed during the main phase of the precedent geomagnetic storm; thus, a HILDCAA event may be more effective for ionospheric response in comparison to moderate geomagnetic storms, considering the seasonal conditions. During the August HILDCAA event, TEC enhancements from  ∼  25 to 80 % (compared to quiet time were observed. These enhancements are much higher than the quiet-time variability observed in the ionosphere. We show that ionosphere is quite sensitive to

  1. Influence of Closing Storm Surge Barrier on Extreme Water Levels and Water Exchange; The Limfjord, Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørgaard, Jørgen Quvang Harck; Bentzen, Thomas Ruby; Larsen, Torben

    2014-01-01

    the increased risk of flooding in the estuary has revitalized the discussion whether this connection should be closed. In this paper, it is shown by numerical simulation that the establishment of a storm surge barrier across Thyborøn Channel can significantly reduce the peak water levels in the central...

  2. Solar--geophysical data number 406, June 1978, Part I. (prompt reports). Data for May 1978, April 1978

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coffey, H.E.

    1978-06-01

    This prompt report provides data for May 1978 on: alert period, daily solar indices, solar flares, solar radio waves, solar x-ray radiation, coronal holes, inferred IP Magnetic field polarities, mean solar magnetic field, solar wind measurements, geomagnetic substorms, magnetograms of geomagnetic storm 30 April - 4 May, and energetic solar particles. It also provides data for April 1978 on: daily solar activity center, sudden ionospheric disturbances, solar x-ray radiation, solar radio waves, cosmic rays, geomagnetic indices, and radio propagation

  3. Hurricane impacts on coastal wetlands: a half-century record of storm-generated features from southern Louisiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, Robert A.; Barras, John A.

    2011-01-01

    Temporally and spatially repeated patterns of wetland erosion, deformation, and deposition are observed on remotely sensed images and in the field after hurricanes cross the coast of Louisiana. The diagnostic morphological wetland features are products of the coupling of high-velocity wind and storm-surge water and their interaction with the underlying, variably resistant, wetland vegetation and soils. Erosional signatures include construction of orthogonal-elongate ponds and amorphous ponds, pond expansion, plucked marsh, marsh denudation, and shoreline erosion. Post-storm gravity reflux of floodwater draining from the wetlands forms dendritic incisions around the pond margins and locally integrates drainage pathways forming braided channels. Depositional signatures include emplacement of broad zones of organic wrack on topographic highs and inorganic deposits of variable thicknesses and lateral extents in the form of shore-parallel sandy washover terraces and interior-marsh mud blankets. Deformational signatures primarily involve laterally compressed marsh and displaced marsh mats and balls. Prolonged water impoundment and marsh salinization also are common impacts associated with wetland flooding by extreme storms. Many of the wetland features become legacies that record prior storm impacts and locally influence subsequent storm-induced morphological changes. Wetland losses caused by hurricane impacts depend directly on impact duration, which is controlled by the diameter of hurricane-force winds, forward speed of the storm, and wetland distance over which the storm passes. Distinguishing between wetland losses caused by storm impacts and losses associated with long-term delta-plain processes is critical for accurate modeling and prediction of future conversion of land to open water.

  4. Solar cosmic rays in the system of solar terrestrial relations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miroshnichenko, Leonty I.

    2008-02-01

    In this brief review, we discuss a number of geophysical effects of solar energetic particles (SEPs) or solar cosmic rays (SCR). We concentrate mainly on the observational evidence and proposed mechanisms of some expected effects and/or poor-studied phenomena discovered within the last three decades, in particular, depletion of the ozone layer, perturbations in the global electric current, effects on the winter storm vorticity, change of the atmospheric transparency and production of nitrates. Some "archaeological" data on SCR fluxes in the past and upper limit of total energy induced by SEPs are also discussed. Due attention is paid to the periodicities in the solar particle fluxes. Actually, many solar, heliospheric and terrestrial parameters changing generally in phase with the solar activity are subjected to a temporary depression close to the solar maximum ("Gnevyshev Gap"). A similar gap has been found recently in the yearly numbers of the >10 MeV proton events. All the above-mentioned findings are evidently of great importance in the studies of general proton emissivity of the Sun and long-term trends in the behaviour of solar magnetic fields. In addition, these data can be very helpful for elaborating the methods for prediction of the radiation conditions in space and for estimation of the SEPs' contribution to solar effects on the geosphere, their relative role in the formation of terrestrial weather and climate and in the problem of solar-terrestrial relations (STR) on the whole.

  5. The Pioneer 9 electric field experiment. III - Radial gradients and storm observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scarf, F. L.; Green, I. M.; Burgess, J. S.

    1973-01-01

    We present a detailed analysis of the Pioneer 9 VLF electric field observations for 20 selected storm periods covering a heliocentric range extending from 0.754 AU to 0.99 AU. Although data from only two low frequency channels are available, the results of the present study tend to confirm the preliminary speculation by Scarf and Siscoe (1971) that the turbulent E-field spectrum in the disturbed solar wind has a significant radial gradient.

  6. Empirical Storm-Time Correction to the International Reference Ionosphere Model E-Region Electron and Ion Density Parameterizations Using Observations from TIMED/SABER

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mertens, Christoper J.; Winick, Jeremy R.; Russell, James M., III; Mlynczak, Martin G.; Evans, David S.; Bilitza, Dieter; Xu, Xiaojing

    2007-01-01

    The response of the ionospheric E-region to solar-geomagnetic storms can be characterized using observations of infrared 4.3 micrometers emission. In particular, we utilize nighttime TIMED/SABER measurements of broadband 4.3 micrometers limb emission and derive a new data product, the NO+(v) volume emission rate, which is our primary observation-based quantity for developing an empirical storm-time correction the IRI E-region electron density. In this paper we describe our E-region proxy and outline our strategy for developing the empirical storm model. In our initial studies, we analyzed a six day storm period during the Halloween 2003 event. The results of this analysis are promising and suggest that the ap-index is a viable candidate to use as a magnetic driver for our model.

  7. Large enhancements in low latitude total electron content during 15 May 2005 geomagnetic storm in Indian zone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Dashora

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Results pertaining to the response of the equatorial and low latitude ionosphere to a major geomagnetic storm that occurred on 15 May 2005 are presented. These results are also the first from the Indian zone in terms of (i GPS derived total electron content (TEC variations following the storm (ii Local low latitude electrodynamics response to penetration of high latitude convection electric field (iii effect of storm induced traveling atmospheric disturbances (TAD's on GPS-TEC in equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA zone. Data set comprising of ionospheric TEC obtained from GPS measurements, ionograms from an EIA zone station, New Delhi (Geog. Lat. 28.42° N, Geog. Long. 77.21° E, ground based magnetometers in equatorial and low latitude stations and solar wind data obtained from Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE has been used in the present study. GPS receivers located at Udaipur (Geog. Lat. 24.73° N, Geog. Long. 73.73° E and Hyderabad (Geog. Lat. 17.33° N, Geog. Long. 78.47° E have been used for wider spatial coverage in the Indian zone. Storm induced features in vertical TEC (VTEC have been obtained comparing them with the mean VTEC of quiet days. Variations in solar wind parameters, as obtained from ACE and in the SYM-H index, indicate that the storm commenced on 15 May 2005 at 02:39 UT. The main phase of the storm commenced at 06:00 UT on 15 May with a sudden southward turning of the Z-component of interplanetary magnetic field (IMF-Bz and subsequent decrease in SYM-H index. The dawn-to-dusk convection electric field of high latitude origin penetrated to low and equatorial latitudes simultaneously as corroborated by the magnetometer data from the Indian zone. Subsequent northward turning of the IMF-Bz, and the penetration of the dusk-to-dawn electric field over the dip equator is also discernible. Response of the low latitude ionosphere to this storm may be characterized in terms of (i enhanced background level of VTEC as compared to

  8. Large enhancements in low latitude total electron content during 15 May 2005 geomagnetic storm in Indian zone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Dashora

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Results pertaining to the response of the equatorial and low latitude ionosphere to a major geomagnetic storm that occurred on 15 May 2005 are presented. These results are also the first from the Indian zone in terms of (i GPS derived total electron content (TEC variations following the storm (ii Local low latitude electrodynamics response to penetration of high latitude convection electric field (iii effect of storm induced traveling atmospheric disturbances (TAD's on GPS-TEC in equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA zone.

    Data set comprising of ionospheric TEC obtained from GPS measurements, ionograms from an EIA zone station, New Delhi (Geog. Lat. 28.42° N, Geog. Long. 77.21° E, ground based magnetometers in equatorial and low latitude stations and solar wind data obtained from Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE has been used in the present study. GPS receivers located at Udaipur (Geog. Lat. 24.73° N, Geog. Long. 73.73° E and Hyderabad (Geog. Lat. 17.33° N, Geog. Long. 78.47° E have been used for wider spatial coverage in the Indian zone. Storm induced features in vertical TEC (VTEC have been obtained comparing them with the mean VTEC of quiet days. Variations in solar wind parameters, as obtained from ACE and in the SYM-H index, indicate that the storm commenced on 15 May 2005 at 02:39 UT. The main phase of the storm commenced at 06:00 UT on 15 May with a sudden southward turning of the Z-component of interplanetary magnetic field (IMF-Bz and subsequent decrease in SYM-H index. The dawn-to-dusk convection electric field of high latitude origin penetrated to low and equatorial latitudes simultaneously as corroborated by the magnetometer data from the Indian zone. Subsequent northward turning of the IMF-Bz, and the penetration of the dusk-to-dawn electric field over the dip equator is also discernible. Response of the low latitude ionosphere to this storm may be characterized in terms of (i

  9. ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index for water vapor transport: A forecast tool for atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavers, David A.; Pappenberger, Florian; Richardson, David S.; Zsoter, Ervin

    2016-11-01

    In winter, heavy precipitation and floods along the west coasts of midlatitude continents are largely caused by intense water vapor transport (integrated vapor transport (IVT)) within the atmospheric river of extratropical cyclones. This study builds on previous findings that showed that forecasts of IVT have higher predictability than precipitation, by applying and evaluating the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) for IVT in ensemble forecasts during three winters across Europe. We show that the IVT EFI is more able (than the precipitation EFI) to capture extreme precipitation in forecast week 2 during forecasts initialized in a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase; conversely, the precipitation EFI is better during the negative NAO phase and at shorter leads. An IVT EFI example for storm Desmond in December 2015 highlights its potential to identify upcoming hydrometeorological extremes, which may prove useful to the user and forecasting communities.

  10. Response of the Ionospheric F-region in the Latin American Sector During the Intense Geomagnetic Storm of 21-22 January 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahai, Y.; Fagundes, P. R.; de Jesus, R.; de Abreu, A. J.; Crowley, G.; Pillat, V. G.; Guarnieri, F. L.; Abalde, J. R.; Bittencourt, J. A.

    2009-12-01

    Ionospheric storms are closely associated with geomagnetic storms and are an extreme example of space weather events. The response of the ionosphere to storms is rather complicated. In the present investigation, we have studied the response of the ionospheric F-region in the Latin American sector during the intense geomagnetic storm of 21-22 January 2005 (with storm sudden commencement (SSC) at 1712 UT on 21 January). This geomagnetic storm is anomalous (minimum Dst reached -105 nT at 0700 UT on 22 January) because the main phase occurred during the northward excursion of the Bz component of interplanetary magnetic fields (IMFs). The monthly mean F10.7 solar flux for the month of January 2005 was 99.0 sfu. The ionospheric F-region parameters observed at Ramey (18.5 N, 67.1 W; RAM), Puerto Rico, Jicamarca (12.0 S, 76.8 W; JIC), Peru, Manaus (2.9 S, 60.0 W; MAN), and São José dos Campos (23.2 S, 45.9 W; SJC), Brazil, during 21-22 January (geomagnetically disturbed) and 25 January (geomagnetically quiet) have been analyzed. Both JIC and MAN, the equatorial stations, show unusually rapid uplifting of the F-region peak heights(hpF2/hmF2) and a decrease in the NmF2 coincident with the time of SSC. At both RAM and SJC an uplifting of the F-region peak height is observed at about 2000 UT. The low-latitude station SJC shows a coincident decrease in NmF2 with the uplifting, whereas the mid-latitude station RAM shows a decrease in NmF2 earlier than the uplifting. Also, the observed variations in the F-region ionospheric parameters are compared with the TIMEGCM model run for 21-22 January and the model results show both similarities and differences from the observed results. Average GPS-TEC (21-22 and 25 January) and phase fluctuations (21, 22, 25, 26 January) observed at Belem (1.5 S, 48.5 W; BELE), Brasilia (15.9 S, 47.9 W; BRAZ), Presidente Prudente (22.3o S, 51.4 W; UEPP), and Porto Alegre (30.1 S, 51.1 W; POAL), Brazil, are also presented. These GPS stations belong to

  11. Estimating the geoeffectiveness of halo CMEs from associated solar and IP parameters using neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Uwamahoro

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Estimating the geoeffectiveness of solar events is of significant importance for space weather modelling and prediction. This paper describes the development of a neural network-based model for estimating the probability occurrence of geomagnetic storms following halo coronal mass ejection (CME and related interplanetary (IP events. This model incorporates both solar and IP variable inputs that characterize geoeffective halo CMEs. Solar inputs include numeric values of the halo CME angular width (AW, the CME speed (Vcme, and the comprehensive flare index (cfi, which represents the flaring activity associated with halo CMEs. IP parameters used as inputs are the numeric peak values of the solar wind speed (Vsw and the southward Z-component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF or Bs. IP inputs were considered within a 5-day time window after a halo CME eruption. The neural network (NN model training and testing data sets were constructed based on 1202 halo CMEs (both full and partial halo and their properties observed between 1997 and 2006. The performance of the developed NN model was tested using a validation data set (not part of the training data set covering the years 2000 and 2005. Under the condition of halo CME occurrence, this model could capture 100% of the subsequent intense geomagnetic storms (Dst ≤ −100 nT. For moderate storms (−100 < Dst ≤ −50, the model is successful up to 75%. This model's estimate of the storm occurrence rate from halo CMEs is estimated at a probability of 86%.

  12. IPS observations of transient interplanetary phenomena associated with solar filament activity in late august

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watanabe, Takashi; Marubashi, Katsuhide.

    1985-01-01

    Large-scale structures of the solar wind plasma during the severe geomagnetic storm of August 27-29, 1978 are studied on the basis of IPS and spacecraft observations. Three-dimensional configuration of an interplanetary disturbance which caused the SSC of August 27, 1978 was an oblate sphere having an axial ratio of 1.7. Approximate excess mass and kinetic energy contained within the high-speed portion of the disturbance (--500 km s -1 ) were 10 16 g and 3 x 10 31 erg, respectively. An interplanetary disturbance was also observed on August 28, 1978 during the main phase of the geomagnetic storm. It is suggested that the solar-filament activity which took place near the solar disk center in August 23-25, 1978 caused these interplanetary disturbances. (author)

  13. Ring current and auroral electrojets in connection with interplanetary medium parameters during magnetic storm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. I. Feldstein

    Full Text Available The relationship between the auroral electrojet indices (AE and the ring current magnetic field (DR was investigated by observations obtained during the magnetic storm on 1-3 April 1973. During the storm main phase the DR development is accompanied by a shift of the auroral electrojets toward the equator. As a result, the standard AE indices calculated on the basis of data from auroral observatories was substantially lower than the real values (AE'. To determine AE' during the course of a storm main phase data from subauroral magnetic observatories should be used. It is shown that the intensity of the indices (AE' which take into account the shift of the electrojets is increased substantially relative to the standard indices during the storm main phase. AE' values are closely correlated with geoeffective solar wind parameters. A high correlation was obtained between AE' and the energy flux into the ring current during the storm main phase. Analysis of magnetic field variations during intervals with intense southward IMF components demonstrates a decrease of the saturation effect of auroral electrojet currents if subauroral stations magnetic field variations are taken into account. This applies both to case studies and statistical data. The dynamics of the electrojets in connection with the development of the ring current and of magnetospheric substorms can be described by the presence (absence of saturation for minimum (maximum AE index values during a 1-h interval. The ring current magnetic field asymmetry (ASY was calculated as the difference between the maximum and minimum field values along a parallel of latitude at low latitudes. The ASY value is closely correlated with geoeffective solar wind parameters and simultaneously is a more sensitive indicator of IMF Bz variations than the symmetric ring current.

  14. Mathematical modelling of unglazed solar collectors under extreme operating conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bunea, M.; Perers, Bengt; Eicher, S.

    2015-01-01

    average temperature levels at the evaporator. Simulation of these systems requires a collector model that can take into account operation at very low temperatures (below freezing) and under various weather conditions, particularly operation without solar irradiation.A solar collector mathematical model......Combined heat pumps and solar collectors got a renewed interest on the heating system market worldwide. Connected to the heat pump evaporator, unglazed solar collectors can considerably increase their efficiency, but they also raise the coefficient of performance of the heat pump with higher...... was found due to the condensation phenomenon and up to 40% due to frost under no solar irradiation. This work also points out the influence of the operating conditions on the collector's characteristics.Based on experiments carried out at a test facility, every heat flux on the absorber was separately...

  15. Equatorial All Sky Imager Images from the Seychelles during the March 17th, 2015 geomagnetic storm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis, B.

    2015-12-01

    An all sky imager was installed in the Seychelles earlier this year. The Seychelles islands are located northeast of Madagascar and east of Somalia in the equatorial Indian Ocean. The all sky imager is located on the island of Mahe (4.6667°S, 55.4667°E geographic), (10.55°S, 127.07°E geomagnetic), with filters of 557.7, 620.0, 630.0, 765.0 and 777.4 nm. Images with a 90 second exposure from Seychelles in 777.4nm and 630.0nm from the night before and night of the March 17th geomagnetic storm are discussed in comparison to solar wind measurements at ACE and the disturbance storm time (Dst) index. These images show line-of-sight intensities of photons received dependent on each filters wavelength. A time series of these images sometimes will show the movement of relatively dark areas, or depletions, in each emission. The depletion regions are known to cause scintillation in GPS signals. The direction and speed of movement of these depletions are related to changes observed in the solar wind.

  16. Extreme Ultraviolet Solar Images Televised In-Flight with a Rocket-Borne SEC Vidicon System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tousey, R; Limansky, I

    1972-05-01

    A TV image of the entire sun while an importance 2N solar flare was in progress was recorded in the extreme ultraviolet (XUV) radiation band 171-630 A and transmitted to ground from an Aerobee-150 rocket on 4 November 1969 using S-band telemetry. The camera tube was a Westinghouse Electric Corporation SEC vidicon, with its fiber optic faceplate coated with an XUV to visible conversion layer of p-quaterphenyl. The XUV passband was produced by three 1000-A thick aluminum filters in series together with the platinized reflecting surface of the off-axis paraboloid that imaged the sun. A number of images were recorded with integration times between 1/30 see and 2 sec. Reconstruction of pictures was enhanced by combining several to reduce the noise.

  17. Sandy berm and beach-ridge formation in relation to extreme sea-levels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bendixen, Mette; Clemmensen, Lars B; Kroon, Aart

    2013-01-01

    The formation of berms and their transformation into beach ridges in a micro-tidal environment is coupled to wave run-up and overtopping during extreme sea levels. A straight-forward comparison between extreme sea levels due to storm-surges and active berm levels is impossible in the semi...... prograding spit on the south-eastern Baltic shores of Zealand, Denmark. The modern, sandy beach at this location consists of a beachface with a shallow incipient berm, a mature berm, and a dune-covered beach ridge. It borders a beach-ridge plain to the west, where more than 20 N–S oriented beach ridges...... and swales are present. Measured water-level data from 1991 to 2012 and topographical observations, carried out during fair weather period and during a storm event, provided the basis for a conceptual model exhibiting berm formation and transformation into the local beach-ridge system. The character...

  18. Hurricane Rita and the destruction of Holly Beach, Louisiana: Why the chenier plain is vulnerable to storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sallenger, A.H.; Wright, C.W.; Doran, K.; Guy, K.; Morgan, K.

    2009-01-01

    Hurricane Rita devastated gulf-front communities along the western Louisiana coast in 2005. LIDAR (light detection and ranging) topographic surveys and aerial photography collected before and after the storm showed the loss of every structure within the community of Holly Beach. Average shoreline change along western Louisiana's 140-km-long impacted shore was -23.3 ?? 30.1 m of erosion, although shoreline change in Holly Beach was substantially less, and erosion was not pervasive where the structures were lost. Before the storm, peak elevations of the dunes, or berms in the absence of dunes, along the impacted shore averaged 1.6 m. The storm surge, which reached 3.5 m just east of Holly Beach, completely inundated the beach systems along the impacted western Louisiana shore. The high surge potential and low land elevations make this coast extremely vulnerable to hurricanes. In fact, most of the western Louisiana shore impacted by Rita will be completely inundated by the storm surge of a worst-case Saffi r-Simpson category 1 hurricane. All of this shore will be inundated by worst-case category 2-5 storms. ?? 2009 The Geological Society of America.

  19. Lightning Evolution In Two North Central Florida Summer Multicell Storms and Three Winter/Spring Frontal Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caicedo, J. A.; Uman, M. A.; Pilkey, J. T.

    2018-01-01

    We present the first lightning evolution studies, via the Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) and radar, performed in North Central Florida. Parts of three winter/spring frontal storms (cold season) and two complete summer (warm season) multicell storms are studied. Storm parameters measured are as follows: total number of flashes, flash-type classification, first flashes, flash initiation altitude, flash initiation power, flash rate (flashes per minute), charge structure, altitude and temperature ranges of the inferred charge regions, atmospheric isotherm altitude, radar base reflectivity (dBZ), and radar echo tops (EET). Several differences were found between summer multicell and winter/spring frontal storms in North Central Florida: (1) in winter/spring storms, the range of altitudes that all charge regions occupy is up to 1 km lower in altitude than in summer storms, as are the 0°C, -10°C, and -20°C isotherms; (2) lightning activity in summer storms is highly correlated with changes in radar signatures, in particular, echo tops; and (3) the LMA average initiation power of all flash types in winter/frontal storms is about an order of magnitude larger than that for summer storms. In relation to storms in other geographical locations, North Central Florida seasonal storms were found to have similarities in most parameters studied with a few differences, examples in Florida being (1) colder initiation altitudes for intracloud flashes, (2) charge regions occupying larger ranges of atmospheric temperatures, and (3) winter/spring frontal storms not having much lightning activity in the stratiform region.

  20. Development of a Severe Sand-dust Storm Model and its Application to Northwest China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Xiaoling; Cheng, Linsheng; Chung, Yong-Seung

    2003-01-01

    A very strong sand-dust storm occurred on 5 May, 1993 in Northwest China. In order to give a detailed description of the evolution of a mesoscale system along with the heavy sand-dust storm, a complex model including improved physical processes and a radiation parameterization scheme was developed based on a simulation model. The improved model introduced a sand-dust transport equation as well as a lifting transport model, sand-dust aerosols and radiation parameterization scheme.Using this model, the super sand-dust storm case on 5 May was simulated. Results indicated that the coupled mesoscale model successfully simulated the mesoscale vortex, its strong upward movement and the warm core structure of PBL. The generation and development of these structures were consistent with that of the sand-dust storm and dry squall-line (which was different with normal squall-line). Simulated sand-dust concentration and its radiative effect corresponded with observation data. The radiative effect of sand-dust aerosols caused the air to heat on the top of aerosol layer with a heating rate amounting to 2 K hr -1 . As a result, solar radiation flux that reached the surface, net radiation flux and surface temperature all suddenly went down. The temperature gradient across the cold front became obviously larger. Therefore, enhancing the development of the mesoscale system. The simulation generally reflected features during the squall-line passage of this strong sand-dust storm