WorldWideScience

Sample records for extreme solar storms

  1. Solar Energetic Particle Event Associated with the 2012 July 23 Extreme Solar Storm

    CERN Document Server

    Zhu, Bei; Luhmann, Janet G; Hu, Huidong; Wang, Rui; Yang, Zhongwei

    2016-01-01

    We study the solar energetic particle (SEP) event associated with the 2012 July 23 extreme solar storm, for which STEREO and the spacecraft at L1 provide multi-point remote sensing and in situ observations. The extreme solar storm, with a superfast shock and extremely enhanced ejecta magnetic fields observed near 1 AU at STEREO A, was caused by the combination of successive coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Meanwhile, energetic particles were observed by STEREO and near-Earth spacecraft such as ACE and SOHO, suggestive of a wide longitudinal spread of the particles at 1 AU. Combining the SEP observations with in situ plasma and magnetic field measurements we investigate the longitudinal distribution of the SEP event in connection with the associated shock and CMEs. Our results underscore the complex magnetic configuration of the inner heliosphere formed by solar eruptions. The examinations of particle intensities, proton anisotropy distributions, element abundance ratios, magnetic connectivity and spectra also g...

  2. Characterizing Extreme Ionospheric Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparks, L.; Komjathy, A.; Altshuler, E.

    2011-12-01

    Ionospheric storms consist of disturbances of the upper atmosphere that generate regions of enhanced electron density typically lasting several hours. Depending upon the storm magnitude, gradients in electron density can sometimes become large and highly localized. The existence of such localized, dense irregularities is a major source of positioning error for users of the Global Positioning System (GPS). Consequently, satellite-based augmentation systems have been implemented to improve the accuracy and to ensure the integrity of user position estimates derived from GPS measurements. Large-scale irregularities generally do not pose a serious threat to estimate integrity as they can be readily detected by such systems. Of greater concern, however, are highly localized irregularities that interfere with the propagation of a signal detected by a user measurement but are poorly sampled by the receivers in the system network. The most challenging conditions have been found to arise following disturbances of large magnitude that occur only rarely over the course of a solar cycle. These extremely disturbed conditions exhibit behavior distinct from moderately disturbed conditions and, hence, have been designated "extreme storms". In this paper we examine and compare the behavior of the extreme ionospheric storms of solar cycle 23 (or, more precisely, extreme storms occurring between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2008), as represented in maps of vertical total electron content. To identify these storms, we present a robust means of quantifying the regional magnitude of an ionospheric storm. Ionospheric storms are observed frequently to occur in conjunction with magnetic storms, i.e., periods of geophysical activity as measured by magnetometers. While various geomagnetic indices, such as the disturbance storm time (Dst) and the planetary Kp index, have long been used to rank the magnitudes of distinct magnetic storms, no comparable, generally recognized index exists for

  3. Solar storms; Tormentas solares

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Collaboration: Pereira Cuesta, S.; Pereira Pagan, B.

    2016-08-01

    Solar storms begin with an explosion, or solar flare, on the surface of the sun. The X-rays and extreme ultraviolet radiation from the flare reach the Earths orbit minutes later-travelling at light speed. The ionization of upper layers of our atmosphere could cause radio blackouts and satellite navigation errors (GPS). Soon after, a wave of energetic particles, electrons and protons accelerated by the explosion crosses the orbit of the Earth, and can cause real and significant damage. (Author)

  4. Extreme Geomagnetic Storms - 1868 - 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vennerstrom, S.; Lefevre, L.; Dumbović, M.; Crosby, N.; Malandraki, O.; Patsou, I.; Clette, F.; Veronig, A.; Vršnak, B.; Leer, K.; Moretto, T.

    2016-05-01

    We present the first large statistical study of extreme geomagnetic storms based on historical data from the time period 1868 - 2010. This article is the first of two companion papers. Here we describe how the storms were selected and focus on their near-Earth characteristics. The second article presents our investigation of the corresponding solar events and their characteristics. The storms were selected based on their intensity in the aa index, which constitutes the longest existing continuous series of geomagnetic activity. They are analyzed statistically in the context of more well-known geomagnetic indices, such as the Kp and Dcx/Dst index. This reveals that neither Kp nor Dcx/Dst provide a comprehensive geomagnetic measure of the extreme storms. We rank the storms by including long series of single magnetic observatory data. The top storms on the rank list are the New York Railroad storm occurring in May 1921 and the Quebec storm from March 1989. We identify key characteristics of the storms by combining several different available data sources, lists of storm sudden commencements (SSCs) signifying occurrence of interplanetary shocks, solar wind in-situ measurements, neutron monitor data, and associated identifications of Forbush decreases as well as satellite measurements of energetic proton fluxes in the near-Earth space environment. From this we find, among other results, that the extreme storms are very strongly correlated with the occurrence of interplanetary shocks (91 - 100 %), Forbush decreases (100 %), and energetic solar proton events (70 %). A quantitative comparison of these associations relative to less intense storms is also presented. Most notably, we find that most often the extreme storms are characterized by a complexity that is associated with multiple, often interacting, solar wind disturbances and that they frequently occur when the geomagnetic activity is already elevated. We also investigate the semiannual variation in storm occurrence

  5. Magnetic storms and solar flares: can be analysed within similar mathematical framework with other extreme events?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balasis, Georgios; Potirakis, Stelios M.; Papadimitriou, Constantinos; Zitis, Pavlos I.; Eftaxias, Konstantinos

    2015-04-01

    The field of study of complex systems considers that the dynamics of complex systems are founded on universal principles that may be used to describe a great variety of scientific and technological approaches of different types of natural, artificial, and social systems. We apply concepts of the nonextensive statistical physics, on time-series data of observable manifestations of the underlying complex processes ending up to different extreme events, in order to support the suggestion that a dynamical analogy characterizes the generation of a single magnetic storm, solar flare, earthquake (in terms of pre-seismic electromagnetic signals) , epileptic seizure, and economic crisis. The analysis reveals that all the above mentioned different extreme events can be analyzed within similar mathematical framework. More precisely, we show that the populations of magnitudes of fluctuations included in all the above mentioned pulse-like-type time series follow the traditional Gutenberg-Richter law as well as a nonextensive model for earthquake dynamics, with similar nonextensive q-parameter values. Moreover, based on a multidisciplinary statistical analysis we show that the extreme events are characterized by crucial common symptoms, namely: (i) high organization, high compressibility, low complexity, high information content; (ii) strong persistency; and (iii) existence of clear preferred direction of emerged activities. These symptoms clearly discriminate the appearance of the extreme events under study from the corresponding background noise.

  6. Storm time spatial variations in TEC during moderate geomagnetic storms in extremely low solar activity conditions (2007-2009) over Indian region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sunda, Surendra; Vyas, B. M.; Khekale, P. V.

    2013-07-01

    The total electron content (TEC) measurements from a network of GPS receivers were analyzed to investigate the storm time spatial response of ionosphere over the Indian longitude sector. The GPS receivers from the GPS Aided Geo Augmented Navigation (GAGAN) network which are uniquely located around the ˜77°E longitude are used in the present study so as to get the complete latitudinal coverage from the magnetic equator to low mid-latitude region. We have selected the most intense storms but of moderate intensity (-100 nT extremely low solar activity conditions in 2007-2009. Though the storms are of moderate intensity, their effects on equatorial to low mid-latitude ionosphere are found to be very severe as TEC deviations are more than 100% during all the storms studied. Interesting results in terms of spatial distribution of positive/negative effects during the main/early recovery phase of storms are noticed. The maximum effect was observed at crest region during two storms whereas another two storms had maximum effect near the low mid-latitude region. The associated mechanisms like equatorial electrodynamics and neutral dynamics are segregated and explained using the TIMED/GUVI and EEJ data during these storms. The TEC maps are generated to investigate the storm time development/inhibition of equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA).

  7. Detailed Analysis of Solar Data Related to Historical Extreme Geomagnetic Storms: 1868 – 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lefèvre, Laure; Vennerstrøm, Susanne; Dumbović, Mateja

    2016-01-01

    An analysis of historical Sun–Earth connection events in the context of the most extreme space weather events of the last ∼ 150 years is presented. To identify the key factors leading to these extreme events, a sample of the most important geomagnetic storms was selected based mainly on the well-...

  8. Solar noise storms

    CERN Document Server

    Elgaroy, E O

    2013-01-01

    Solar Noise Storms examines the properties and features of solar noise storm phenomenon. The book also presents some theories that can be used to gain a better understanding of the phenomenon. The coverage of the text includes topics that cover the features and behavior of noise storms, such as the observable features of noise storms; the relationship between noise storms and the observable features on the sun; and ordered behavior of storm bursts in the time-frequency plane. The book also covers the spectrum, polarization, and directivity of noise storms. The text will be of great use to astr

  9. Occurrence rate of extreme magnetic storms

    CERN Document Server

    Yermolaev, Yu I; Nikolaeva, N S; Yermolaev, M Yu

    2013-01-01

    Statistical analysis of occurrence rate of magnetic storms induced by different types of interplanetary drivers is made on the basis of OMNI data for period 1976-2000. Using our catalog of large scale types of solar wind streams we study storms induced by interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICME) (separately magnetic clouds (MC) and Ejecta) and both types of compressed regions: corotating interaction regions (CIR) and Sheaths. For these types of drivers we calculate integral probabilities of storms with minimum Dst < -50, -70, -100, -150, and -200 nT. The highest probability in this interval of Dst is observed for MC, probabilities for other drivers are 3-10 times lower than for MC. Extrapolation of obtained results to extreme storms shows that such a magnetic storm as Carrington storm in 1859 with Dst = -1760 nT is observed on the Earth with frequency 1 event during ~500 year.

  10. Extreme Geomagnetic Storms – 1868–2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vennerstrøm, Susanne; Lefèvre, L.; Dumbović, M.

    2016-01-01

    occurring in May 1921 and the Quebec storm from March 1989. We identifykey characteristics of the storms by combining several different available data sources, listsof storm sudden commencements (SSCs) signifying occurrence of interplanetary shocks,solar wind in-situ measurements, neutron monitor data...

  11. Winter Storms and Extreme Cold

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Landslides & Debris Flow Nuclear Blast Nuclear Power Plants Power Outages Pandemic Radiological Dispersion Device Severe Weather Snowstorms & Extreme ... Landslides & Debris Flow Nuclear Blast Nuclear Power Plants Power Outages Pandemic Radiological Dispersion Device Severe Weather Snowstorms & Extreme ...

  12. Solar cycle distribution of major geomagnetic storms

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gui-Ming Le; Zi-Yu Cai; Hua-Ning Wang; Zhi-Qiang Yin; Peng Li

    2013-01-01

    We examine the solar cycle distribution of major geomagnetic storms (Dst ≤-100 nT),including intense storms at the level of-200 nT< Dst ≤-100 nT,great storms at-300 nT< Dst ≤-200 nT,and super storms at Dst ≤-300 nT,which occurred during the period of 1957-2006,based on Dst indices and smoothed monthly sunspot numbers.Statistics show that the majority (82%) of the geomagnetic storms at the level of Dst ≤-100 nT that occurred in the study period were intense geomagnetic storms,with 12.4% ranked as great storms and 5.6% as super storms.It is interesting to note that about 27% of the geomagnetic storms that occurred at all three intensity levels appeared in the ascending phase of a solar cycle,and about 73% in the descending one.Statistics also show that 76.9% of the intense storms,79.6% of the great storms and 90.9% of the super storms occurred during the two years before a solar cycle reached its peak,or in the three years after it.The correlation between the size of a solar cycle and the percentage of major storms that occurred,during the period from two years prior to maximum to three years after it,is investigated.Finally,the properties of the multi-peak distribution for major geomagnetic storms in each solar cycle is investigated.

  13. Solar storms, cycles and topology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lundstedt H.

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Solar storms are produced due to plasma processes inside and between coronal loops. These loops are topologically examined using knot and braid theory. Solar cycles are topologically explored with a complex generalization of the three ordinary differential equations studied by Lorenz. By studying the Poincaré map we give numerical evidence that the flow has an attractor with fractal structure. The period is defined as the time needed for a point on a hyperplane to return to the hyperplane again. The periods are distributed in an interval. For large values of the Dynamo number there is a long tail toward long periods and other interesting comet-like features. We also found a relationship between the intensity of a cycle and the length for the previous cycle. Maunder like minima are also appearing. These general relations found for periods can further be physically interpreted with improved helioseismic estimates of the parameters used by the dynamical systems. Solar Dynamic Observatory is expected to offer such improved measurements.

  14. Interplanetary shocks and solar wind extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vats, Hari

    The interplanetary shocks have a very high correlation with the annual sunspot numbers during the solar cycle; however the correlation falls very low on shorter time scale. Thus poses questions and difficulty in the predictability. Space weather is largely controlled by these interplanetary shocks, solar energetic events and the extremes of solar wind. In fact most of the solar wind extremes are related to the solar energetic phenomena. It is quite well understood that the energetic events like flares, filament eruptions etc. occurring on the Sun produce high speed extremes both in terms of density and speed. There is also high speed solar wind steams associated with the coronal holes mainly because the magnetic field lines are open there and the solar plasma finds it easy to escape from there. These are relatively tenuous high speed streams and hence create low intensity geomagnetic storms of higher duration. The solar flares and/or filament eruptions usually release excess coronal mass into the interplanetary medium and thus these energetic events send out high density and high speed solar wind which statistically found to produce more intense storms. The other extremes of solar wind are those in which density and speed are much lower than the normal values. Several such events have been observed and are found to produce space weather consequences of different kind. It is found that such extremes are more common around the maximum of solar cycle 20 and 23. Most of these have significantly low Alfven Mach number. This article is intended to outline the interplanetary and geomagnetic consequences of observed by ground based and satellite systems for the solar wind extremes.

  15. Solar extreme events

    CERN Document Server

    Hudson, Hugh S

    2015-01-01

    Solar flares and CMEs have a broad range of magnitudes. This review discusses the possibility of "extreme events," defined as those with magnitudes greater than have been seen in the existing historical record. For most quantitative measures, this direct information does not extend more than a century and a half into the recent past. The magnitude distributions (occurrence frequencies) of solar events (flares/CMEs) typically decrease with the parameter measured or inferred (peak flux, mass, energy etc. Flare radiation fluxes tend to follow a power law slightly flatter than $S^{-2}$, where S represents a peak flux; solar particle events (SPEs) follow a still flatter power law up to a limiting magnitude, and then appear to roll over to a steeper distribution, which may take an exponential form or follow a broken power law. This inference comes from the terrestrial $^{14}$C record and from the depth dependence of various radioisotope proxies in the lunar regolith and in meteorites. Recently major new observation...

  16. Modeling the recovery phase of extreme geomagnetic storms

    CERN Document Server

    Cid, C; Saiz, E; Cerrato, Y; Aguado, J; Guerrero, A

    2014-01-01

    The recovery phase of the largest storms ever recorded has been studied. These events provide an extraordinary opportunity for two goals: (1) to validate the hyperbolic model by Aguado et al. [2010] for the recovery phase after disturbances as severe as the Carrington event, or that related to the Hydro-Quebec blackout in March 1989, and (2) to check whether the linear relationship between the recovery time and the intensity of the storm still complies. Our results reveal the high accuracy of the hyperbolic decay function to reproduce the recovery phase of the magnetosphere after an extreme storm. Moreover, the characteristic time that takes the magnetosphere to recover depends in an exponential way on the intensity of the storm, as indicated by the relationship between the two parameters involved in the hyperbolic decay. This exponential function can be approached by a linear function when the severity of the storm diminishes.

  17. Morphological impacts of extreme storms on sandy beaches and barriers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, R.A.; Sallenger, A.H.

    2003-01-01

    Historical extreme storms that struck the Gulf Coast and Atlantic Coast regions of the United States caused several different styles of morphological response and resulted in a wide range of washover penetration distances. The post- storm erosional responses included dune scarps, channel incisions, and washouts, whereas depositional responses included perched fans, washover terraces, and sheetwash lineations. Maximum inland extent of washover penetration ranged from approximately 100 to 1000 m and estimated sediment volumes associated with these deposits ranged from about 10 to 225 m 3/m of beach. Unusual styles of morphological response (sheetwash lineations and incised channels) and maximum washover penetration distances are closely correlated, and they also correspond to storm intensity as denned by the Saffir-Simpson wind-speed scale. The regional morphological responses and washover penetration distances are controlled primarily by the interactions among heights and durations of storm surge relative to adjacent land elevations, differences in water levels between the ocean and adjacent lagoon, constructive and destructive interference of storm waves, and alongshore variations in nearshore bathymetry. For barrier segments that are entirely submerged during the storm, impacts can be enhanced by the combined influences of shallow water depths and organized flow within the wind field. The greatest washover penetrations and sediment accumulations are products of shallow water, confined flow, and high wind stress. Transport and deposition of washover sediments across barrier islands and into the adjacent lagoon are common processes along the Gulf of Mexico but not along the western Atlantic Ocean. This fundamental difference in storm impact underscores how microtidal and mesotidal barriers respond respectively to extreme storms, and provides insight into how different types of barrier islands will likely respond to future extreme storms and to a relative rise in sea

  18. Climate, not conflict, explains extreme Middle East dust storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parolari, Anthony J.; Li, Dan; Bou-Zeid, Elie; Katul, Gabriel G.; Assouline, Shmuel

    2016-11-01

    The recent dust storm in the Middle East (Sepember 2015) was publicized in the media as a sign of an impending ‘Dust Bowl.’ Its severity, demonstrated by extreme aerosol optical depth in the atmosphere in the 99th percentile compared to historical data, was attributed to the ongoing regional conflict. However, surface meteorological and remote sensing data, as well as regional climate model simulations, support an alternative hypothesis: the historically unprecedented aridity played a more prominent role, as evidenced by unusual climatic and meteorological conditions prior to and during the storm. Remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index demonstrates that vegetation cover was high in 2015 relative to the prior drought and conflict periods, suggesting that agricultural activity was not diminished during that year, thus negating the media narrative. Instead, meteorological simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model show that the storm was associated with a cyclone and ‘Shamal’ winds, typical for dust storm generation in this region, that were immediately followed by an unusual wind reversal at low levels that spread dust west to the Mediterranean Coast. These unusual meteorological conditions were aided by a significant reduction in the critical shear stress due to extreme dry and hot conditions, thereby enhancing dust availability for erosion during this storm. Concluding, unusual aridity, combined with unique synoptic weather patterns, enhanced dust emission and westward long-range transport across the region, thus generating the extreme storm.

  19. The structure of solar radio noise storms

    CERN Document Server

    Mercier, Claude; Chambe, Gilbert; Janardhan, P

    2014-01-01

    The Nan\\c{c}ay Radioheliograph (NRH) routinely produces snapshot images of the full sun at frequencies between 150 and 450 MHz, with typical resolution 3 arcmin and time cadence 0.2 s. Combining visibilities from the NRH and from the Giant Meterwave Radio Telescope (GMRT) allows us to produce images of the sun at 236 or 327 MHz, with a large FOV, high resolution and time cadence. We seek to investigate the structure of noise storms (the most common non-thermal solar radio emission). We focus on the relation of position and altitude of noise storms with the observing frequency and on the lower limit of their sizes. We present results for noise storms on four days. The results consist of an extended halo and of one or several compact cores with relative intensity changing over a few seconds. We found that core sizes can be almost stable over one hour, with a minimum in the range 31-35 arcsec (less than previously reported) and can be stable over one hour. The heliocentric distances of noise storms are $\\sim 1.2...

  20. Observations of an extreme storm in interplanetary space caused by successive coronal mass ejections

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Ying D; Kajdič, Primož; Kilpua, Emilia K J; Lugaz, Noé; Nitta, Nariaki V; Möstl, Christian; Lavraud, Benoit; Bale, Stuart D; Farrugia, Charles J; Galvin, Antoinette B

    2014-01-01

    Space weather refers to dynamic conditions on the Sun and in the space environment of the Earth, which are often driven by solar eruptions and their subsequent interplanetary disturbances. It has been unclear how an extreme space weather storm forms and how severe it can be. Here we report and investigate an extreme event with multi-point remote-sensing and in-situ observations. The formation of the extreme storm showed striking novel features. We suggest that the in-transit interaction between two closely launched coronal mass ejections resulted in the extreme enhancement of the ejecta magnetic field observed near 1 AU at STEREO A. The fast transit to STEREO A (in only 18.6 hours), or the unusually weak deceleration of the event, was caused by the preconditioning of the upstream solar wind by an earlier solar eruption. These results provide a new view crucial to solar physics and space weather as to how an extreme space weather event can arise from a combination of solar eruptions.

  1. Geo-effectiveness of Solar Wind Extremes

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Hari Om Vats

    2006-06-01

    Examples of extreme events of solar wind and their effect on geomagnetic conditions are discussed here. It is found that there are two regimes of high speed solar wind streams with a threshold of ∼ 850 km s-1. Geomagnetic activity enhancement rate (GAER) is defined as an average increase in Ap value per unit average increase in the peak solar wind velocity (Vp) during the stream. GAER was found to be different in the two regimes of high speed streams with +ve and -ve IMF. GAER is 0.73 and 0.53 for solar wind streams with +ve and -ve IMF respectively for the extremely high speed streams (< 850 km s-1). This indicates that streams above the threshold speed with +ve IMF are 1.4 times more effective in enhancing geomagnetic activity than those with -ve IMF. However, the high speed streams below the threshold with -ve IMF are 1.1 times more effective in enhancing geomagnetic activity than those with +ve IMF. The violent solar activity period (October–November 2003) of cycle 23 presents a very special case during which many severe and strong effects were seen in the environment of the Earth and other planets; however, the z-component of IMF (Bz) is mostly positive during this period. The most severe geomagnetic storm of this cycle occurred when Bz was positive.

  2. Solar Wind Charge Exchange During Geomagnetic Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Ina P.; Cravens, Thomas E.; Sibeck, David G.; Collier, Michael R.; Kuntz, K. D.

    2012-01-01

    On March 31st. 2001, a coronal mass ejection pushed the subsolar magnetopause to the vicinity of geosynchronous orbit at 6.6 RE. The NASA/GSFC Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMe) employed a global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model to simulate the solar wind-magnetosphere interaction during the peak of this geomagnetic storm. Robertson et aL then modeled the expected 50ft X-ray emission due to solar wind charge exchange with geocoronal neutrals in the dayside cusp and magnetosheath. The locations of the bow shock, magnetopause and cusps were clearly evident in their simulations. Another geomagnetic storm took place on July 14, 2000 (Bastille Day). We again modeled X-ray emission due to solar wind charge exchange, but this time as observed from a moving spacecraft. This paper discusses the impact of spacecraft location on observed X-ray emission and the degree to which the locations of the bow shock and magnetopause can be detected in images.

  3. Performance Comparison of the European Storm Surge Models and Chaotic Model in Forecasting Extreme Storm Surges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siek, M. B.; Solomatine, D. P.

    2009-04-01

    Storm surge modeling has rapidly developed considerably over the past 30 years. A number of significant advances on operational storm surge models have been implemented and tested, consisting of: refining computational grids, calibrating the model, using a better numerical scheme (i.e. more realistic model physics for air-sea interaction), implementing data assimilation and ensemble model forecasts. This paper addresses the performance comparison between the existing European storm surge models and the recently developed methods of nonlinear dynamics and chaos theory in forecasting storm surge dynamics. The chaotic model is built using adaptive local models based on the dynamical neighbours in the reconstructed phase space of observed time series data. The comparison focused on the model accuracy in forecasting a recently extreme storm surge in the North Sea on November 9th, 2007 that hit the coastlines of several European countries. The combination of a high tide, north-westerly winds exceeding 50 mph and low pressure produced an exceptional storm tide. The tidal level was exceeded 3 meters above normal sea levels. Flood warnings were issued for the east coast of Britain and the entire Dutch coast. The Maeslant barrier's two arc-shaped steel doors in the Europe's biggest port of Rotterdam was closed for the first time since its construction in 1997 due to this storm surge. In comparison to the chaotic model performance, the forecast data from several European physically-based storm surge models were provided from: BSH Germany, DMI Denmark, DNMI Norway, KNMI Netherlands and MUMM Belgium. The performance comparison was made over testing datasets for two periods/conditions: non-stormy period (1-Sep-2007 till 14-Oct-2007) and stormy period (15-Oct-2007 till 20-Nov-2007). A scalar chaotic model with optimized parameters was developed by utilizing an hourly training dataset of observations (11-Sep-2005 till 31-Aug-2007). The comparison results indicated the chaotic

  4. STATISTICAL STUDY OF STRONG AND EXTREME GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES AND SOLAR CYCLE CHARACTERISTICS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kilpua, E. K. J. [Department of Physics, University Helsinki (Finland); Olspert, N.; Grigorievskiy, A.; Käpylä, M. J.; Tanskanen, E. I.; Pelt, J. [ReSoLVE Centre of Excellence, Department of Computer Science, P.O. Box 15400, FI-00076 Aalto Univeristy (Finland); Miyahara, H. [Musashino Art University, 1-736 Ogawa-cho, Kodaira-shi, Tokyo 187-8505 (Japan); Kataoka, R. [National Institute of Polar Research, 10-3 Midori-cho, Tachikawa, Tokyo 190-8518 (Japan); Liu, Y. D. [State Key Laboratory of Space Weather, National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China)

    2015-06-20

    We study the relation between strong and extreme geomagnetic storms and solar cycle characteristics. The analysis uses an extensive geomagnetic index AA data set spanning over 150 yr complemented by the Kakioka magnetometer recordings. We apply Pearson correlation statistics and estimate the significance of the correlation with a bootstrapping technique. We show that the correlation between the storm occurrence and the strength of the solar cycle decreases from a clear positive correlation with increasing storm magnitude toward a negligible relationship. Hence, the quieter Sun can also launch superstorms that may lead to significant societal and economic impact. Our results show that while weaker storms occur most frequently in the declining phase, the stronger storms have the tendency to occur near solar maximum. Our analysis suggests that the most extreme solar eruptions do not have a direct connection between the solar large-scale dynamo-generated magnetic field, but are rather associated with smaller-scale dynamo and resulting turbulent magnetic fields. The phase distributions of sunspots and storms becoming increasingly in phase with increasing storm strength, on the other hand, may indicate that the extreme storms are related to the toroidal component of the solar large-scale field.

  5. Universality in solar flare, magnetic storm and earthquake dynamics using Tsallis statistical mechanics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balasis, Georgios; Daglis, Ioannis A.; Anastasiadis, Anastasios; Papadimitriou, Constantinos; Mandea, Mioara; Eftaxias, Konstantinos

    2011-01-01

    The universal character of the dynamics of various extreme phenomena is an outstanding scientific challenge. We show that X-ray flux and D time series during powerful solar flares and intense magnetic storms, respectively, obey a nonextensive energy distribution function for earthquake dynamics with similar values for the Tsallis entropic index q. Thus, evidence for universality in solar flares, magnetic storms and earthquakes arise naturally in the framework of Tsallis statistical mechanics. The observed similarity suggests a common approach to the interpretation of these diverse phenomena in terms of driving physical mechanisms that have the same character.

  6. The Causes of Geomagnetic Storms During Solar Maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsurutani, B. T.; Gonzalez, W. D.

    1998-01-01

    One of the oldest mysteries in geomagnetism is the linkage between solar and geomagnetic activity. The 11-year cycles of both the numbers of sunspots and Earth geomagnetic storms were first noted by Sabine (1852).

  7. Use of historical information in extreme storm surges frequency analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamdi, Yasser; Duluc, Claire-Marie; Deville, Yves; Bardet, Lise; Rebour, Vincent

    2013-04-01

    The prevention of storm surge flood risks is critical for protection and design of coastal facilities to very low probabilities of failure. The effective protection requires the use of a statistical analysis approach having a solid theoretical motivation. Relating extreme storm surges to their frequency of occurrence using probability distributions has been a common issue since 1950s. The engineer needs to determine the storm surge of a given return period, i.e., the storm surge quantile or design storm surge. Traditional methods for determining such a quantile have been generally based on data from the systematic record alone. However, the statistical extrapolation, to estimate storm surges corresponding to high return periods, is seriously contaminated by sampling and model uncertainty if data are available for a relatively limited period. This has motivated the development of approaches to enlarge the sample extreme values beyond the systematic period. The nonsystematic data occurred before the systematic period is called historical information. During the last three decades, the value of using historical information as a nonsystematic data in frequency analysis has been recognized by several authors. The basic hypothesis in statistical modeling of historical information is that a perception threshold exists and that during a giving historical period preceding the period of tide gauging, all exceedances of this threshold have been recorded. Historical information prior to the systematic records may arise from high-sea water marks left by extreme surges on the coastal areas. It can also be retrieved from archives, old books, earliest newspapers, damage reports, unpublished written records and interviews with local residents. A plotting position formula, to compute empirical probabilities based on systematic and historical data, is used in this communication paper. The objective of the present work is to examine the potential gain in estimation accuracy with the

  8. Anticipating environmental and environmental-health implications of extreme storms: ARkStorm scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plumlee, Geoffrey S.; Alpers, Charles N.; Morman, Suzette A.; San Juan, Carma A.

    2016-01-01

    The ARkStorm Scenario predicts that a prolonged winter storm event across California would cause extreme precipitation, flooding, winds, physical damages, and economic impacts. This study uses a literature review and geographic information system-based analysis of national and state databases to infer how and where ARkStorm could cause environmental damages, release contamination from diverse natural and anthropogenic sources, affect ecosystem and human health, and cause economic impacts from environmental-remediation, liability, and health-care costs. Examples of plausible ARkStorm environmental and health concerns include complex mixtures of contaminants such as petroleum, mercury, asbestos, persistent organic pollutants, molds, and pathogens; adverse physical and contamination impacts on riverine and coastal marine ecosystems; and increased incidences of mold-related health concerns, some vector-borne diseases, and valley fever. Coastal cities, the San Francisco Bay area, the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, parts of the Central Valley, and some mountainous areas would likely be most affected. This type of screening analysis, coupled with follow-up local assessments, can help stakeholders in California and disaster-prone areas elsewhere better plan for, mitigate, and respond to future environmental disasters.

  9. Mars Global Surveyor measurements of solar storms and their effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brain, D. A.; Delory, G. T.; Lillis, R. J.; Ulusen, D.; Mitchell, D.; Luhmann, J. G.; Falkenberg, T. V.

    2010-12-01

    Space weather events in the form of solar photons and energetic charged particles provide brief but relatively intense periods of energy input to the Martian plasma environment and atmosphere, with implications for a number of science and exploration-related issues. The Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) spacecraft orbited Mars for more than 9 years, and was capable of indirectly detecting space weather events and their effects. Shocks associated with passing coronal mass ejections are evident in MGS magnetometer data, and in proxies for upstream solar wind pressure at 1.5 AU derived from magnetometer measurements. Fluxes of solar energetic particles with energies greater than ˜30 MeV are sometimes evident in the background count rates of the MGS electron instrument. Measurements of the background count rates at altitudes of ˜400 km over a seven year period provide an unprecedented long-baseline data set of the energetic particle environment at Mars over a significant fraction of a solar cycle. We will present results of analyses pertaining to three main uses of MGS observations of solar storms. First, by combining MGS measurements of solar storms with terrestrial and solar measurements, we have analyzed the propagation of individual solar storm events from the Sun throughout the inner heliosphere. Next, we have used MGS particle and field measurements to study the effect of solar storms on the Martian plasma environment - including increased fluxes of 10-20 keV electrons close to the planet and influences on auroral activity. Finally, we have studied the influence of solar storms on the Martian upper atmosphere - including suprathermal electrons produced in the atmosphere via impact ionization and a correlation of solar storm periods with ionospheric electron density profiles.

  10. Assessment of Vulnerability to Extreme Flash Floods in Design Storms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyun Il Choi

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available There has been an increase in the occurrence of sudden local flooding of great volume and short duration caused by heavy or excessive rainfall intensity over a small area, which presents the greatest potential danger threat to the natural environment, human life, public health and property, etc. Such flash floods have rapid runoff and debris flow that rises quickly with little or no advance warning to prevent flood damage. This study develops a flash flood index through the average of the same scale relative severity factors quantifying characteristics of hydrographs generated from a rainfall-runoff model for the long-term observed rainfall data in a small ungauged study basin, and presents regression equations between rainfall characteristics and the flash flood index. The aim of this study is to develop flash flood index-duration-frequency relation curves by combining the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relation and the flash flood index from probability rainfall data in order to evaluate vulnerability to extreme flash floods in design storms. This study is an initial effort to quantify the flash flood severity of design storms for both existing and planned flood control facilities to cope with residual flood risks due to extreme flash floods that have ocurred frequently in recent years.

  11. Assessment of vulnerability to extreme flash floods in design storms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Eung Seok; Choi, Hyun Il

    2011-07-01

    There has been an increase in the occurrence of sudden local flooding of great volume and short duration caused by heavy or excessive rainfall intensity over a small area, which presents the greatest potential danger threat to the natural environment, human life, public health and property, etc. Such flash floods have rapid runoff and debris flow that rises quickly with little or no advance warning to prevent flood damage. This study develops a flash flood index through the average of the same scale relative severity factors quantifying characteristics of hydrographs generated from a rainfall-runoff model for the long-term observed rainfall data in a small ungauged study basin, and presents regression equations between rainfall characteristics and the flash flood index. The aim of this study is to develop flash flood index-duration-frequency relation curves by combining the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relation and the flash flood index from probability rainfall data in order to evaluate vulnerability to extreme flash floods in design storms. This study is an initial effort to quantify the flash flood severity of design storms for both existing and planned flood control facilities to cope with residual flood risks due to extreme flash floods that have ocurred frequently in recent years.

  12. Prediction method for October 2003 solar storm

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XIE Yanqiong; WEI Fengsi; FENG Xueshang; ZHONG Dingkun

    2006-01-01

    Aiming at two intense shock events on October 28 and 29, 2003, this paper presents a two-step method, which combines synoptic analysis of space weather -- "observing" and quantitative prediction -- "palpating", and then uses it to test predictions. In the first step of "observing", on the basis of observations of the solar source surface magnetic field, interplanetary scintillation (IPS) and ACE spacecraft, we find that the propagation of the shocks is asymmetric relative to the normal direction of their solar sources, and the Earth is located near the direction of the fastest speed and the greatest energy of the shocks. As the two fast ejection shock events, the fast explosion of coronal mass of the extremely high temperature, the strong magnetic field, and the high speed background solar wind are also helpful to their rapid propagation. In the second step of "palpating", we adopt a new membership function of the fast shock events for the ISF method. The predicted results show that for the onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, the relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 1.8% and 6.7%; and for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the relative errors are 4.1% and 3.1%, respectively. Furthermore, the comparison among the predicted results of our two-step method with those of five other prevailing methods shows that the two-step method is advantageous. The results tell us that understanding the physical features of shock propagation thoroughly is of great importance in improving the prediction precision.

  13. Projections of extreme storm surge levels along Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vousdoukas, Michalis I.; Voukouvalas, Evangelos; Annunziato, Alessandro; Giardino, Alessio; Feyen, Luc

    2016-11-01

    Storm surges are an important coastal hazard component and it is unknown how they will evolve along Europe's coastline in view of climate change. In the present contribution, the hydrodynamic model Delft3D-Flow was forced by surface wind and atmospheric pressure fields from a 8-member climate model ensemble in order to evaluate dynamics in storm surge levels (SSL) along the European coastline (1) for the baseline period 1970-2000; and (2) during this century under the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Validation simulations, spanning from 2008 to 2014 and driven by ERA-Interim atmospheric forcing, indicated good predictive skill (0.06 m relative sea level rise (RSLR), can be further enforced by an increase of the extreme SSL, which can exceed 30 % of the RSLR, especially for the high return periods and pathway RCP8.5. This implies that the combined effect could increase even further anticipated impacts of climate change for certain European areas and highlights the necessity for timely coastal adaptation and protection measures. The dataset is publicly available under this link: http://data.jrc.ec.europa.eu/collection/LISCOAST.

  14. Anomalous dynamics of the extremely compressed magnetosphere during 21 January 2005 magnetic storm

    CERN Document Server

    Dmitriev, A V; Chao, J -K; Wang, C B; Rastaetter, L; Panasyuk, M I; Lazutin, L L; Kovtyukh, A S; Veselovsky, I S; Myagkova, I N

    2014-01-01

    Dynamics of the dayside magnetosphere and proton radiation belt was analyzed during unusual magnetic storm on 21 January 2005. We have found that during the storm from 1712 to 2400 UT, the subsolar magnetopause was continuously located inside geosynchronous orbit due to strong compression. The compression was found to be extremely strong from 1846 to 2035 UT when the dense plasma of fast erupting filament produced the solar wind dynamic pressure Pd peaked up to >100 nPa and, in the first time, the upstream solar wind was observed at geosynchronous orbit during almost 2 hours. Under the extreme compression, the outer magnetosphere at L > 5 was pushed inward and the outer radiation belt particles with energies of several tens of keV moved earthward, became adiabatically accelerated and accumulated in the inner magnetosphere at L 20%, which is well appropriate for erupting filaments and which is in agreement with the upper 27% threshold for the He/H ratio obtained from Cluster measurements.

  15. Extreme storm surges: a comparative study of frequency analysis approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamdi, Y.; Bardet, L.; Duluc, C.-M.; Rebour, V.

    2014-08-01

    In France, nuclear facilities were designed around very low probabilities of failure. Nevertheless, some extreme climatic events have given rise to exceptional observed surges (outliers) much larger than other observations, and have clearly illustrated the potential to underestimate the extreme water levels calculated with the current statistical methods. The objective of the present work is to conduct a comparative study of three approaches to extreme value analysis, including the annual maxima (AM), the peaks-over-threshold (POT) and the r-largest order statistics (r-LOS). These methods are illustrated in a real analysis case study. All data sets were screened for outliers. Non-parametric tests for randomness, homogeneity and stationarity of time series were used. The shape and scale parameter stability plots, the mean excess residual life plot and the stability of the standard errors of return levels were used to select optimal thresholds and r values for the POT and r-LOS method, respectively. The comparison of methods was based on (i) the uncertainty degrees, (ii) the adequacy criteria and tests, and (iii) the visual inspection. It was found that the r-LOS and POT methods have reduced the uncertainty on the distribution parameters and return level estimates and have systematically shown values of the 100 and 500-year return levels smaller than those estimated with the AM method. Results have also shown that none of the compared methods has allowed a good fit at the right tail of the distribution in the presence of outliers. As a perspective, the use of historical information was proposed in order to increase the representativeness of outliers in data sets. Findings are of practical relevance, not only to nuclear energy operators in France, for applications in storm surge hazard analysis and flood management, but also for the optimal planning and design of facilities to withstand extreme environmental conditions, with an appropriate level of risk.

  16. Automatic prediction of solar flares and super geomagnetic storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Hui

    Space weather is the response of our space environment to the constantly changing Sun. As the new technology advances, mankind has become more and more dependent on space system, satellite-based services. A geomagnetic storm, a disturbance in Earth's magnetosphere, may produce many harmful effects on Earth. Solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are believed to be the major causes of geomagnetic storms. Thus, establishing a real time forecasting method for them is very important in space weather study. The topics covered in this dissertation are: the relationship between magnetic gradient and magnetic shear of solar active regions; the relationship between solar flare index and magnetic features of solar active regions; based on these relationships a statistical ordinal logistic regression model is developed to predict the probability of solar flare occurrences in the next 24 hours; and finally the relationship between magnetic structures of CME source regions and geomagnetic storms, in particular, the super storms when the D st index decreases below -200 nT is studied and proved to be able to predict those super storms. The results are briefly summarized as follows: (1) There is a significant correlation between magnetic gradient and magnetic shear of active region. Furthermore, compared with magnetic shear, magnetic gradient might be a better proxy to locate where a large flare occurs. It appears to be more accurate in identification of sources of X-class flares than M-class flares; (2) Flare index, defined by weighting the SXR flares, is proved to have positive correlation with three magnetic features of active region; (3) A statistical ordinal logistic regression model is proposed for solar flare prediction. The results are much better than those data published in the NASA/SDAC service, and comparable to the data provided by the NOAA/SEC complicated expert system. To our knowledge, this is the first time that logistic regression model has been applied

  17. Extreme storm surges: a comparative study of frequency analysis approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Hamdi

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available In France, nuclear facilities were designed to very low probabilities of failure. Nevertheless, exceptional climatic events have given rise to surges much larger than observations (outliers and had clearly illustrated the potential to underestimate the extreme water levels calculated with the current statistical methods. The objective of the present work is to conduct a comparative study of three approaches including the Annual Maxima (AM, the Peaks-Over Threshold (POT and the r-Largest Order Statistics (r-LOS. These methods are illustrated in a real analysis case study. All the data sets were screened for outliers. Non-parametric tests for randomness, homogeneity and stationarity of time series were used. The shape and scale parameters stability plots, the mean excess residual life plot and the stability of the standard errors of return levels were used to select optimal thresholds and r values for the POT and r-LOS method, respectively. The comparison of methods was based on: (i the uncertainty degrees, (ii the adequacy criteria and tests and (iii the visual inspection. It was found that the r-LOS and POT methods have reduced the uncertainty on the distributions parameters and return level estimates and have systematically shown values of the 100 and 500 yr return levels smaller than those estimated with the AM method. Results have also shown that none of the compared methods has allowed a good fitting at the right tail of the distribution in the presence of outliers. As a perspective, the use of historical information was proposed in order to increase the representativity of outliers in data sets. Findings are of practical relevance not only to nuclear energy operators in France, for applications in storm surge hazard analysis and flood management, but also for the optimal planning and design of facilities to withstand extreme environmental conditions, with an appropriate level of risk.

  18. Relationship between the Magnetic Flux of Solar Eruptions and the Ap Index of Geomagnetic Storms

    CERN Document Server

    Chertok, I M; Abunin, A A; Belov, A V; Grechnev, V V

    2014-01-01

    Solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are main drivers of the most powerful non-recurrent geomagnetic storms. In the extreme-ultraviolet range, CMEs are accompanied by bright post-eruption arcades and dark dimmings. The analysis of events of the Solar Cycle 23 (Chertok et al., 2013, Solar Phys. 282, 175) revealed that the summarized unsigned magnetic flux in the arcades and dimming regions at the photospheric level, Phi, is significantly related to the intensity (Dst index) of geomagnetic storms. This provides the basis for the earliest diagnosis of geoefficiency of solar eruptions. In the present article, using the same data set, we find that a noticeable correlation exists also between the eruptive magnetic flux, Phi, and another geomagnetic index, Ap. As the magnetic flux increases from tens to approx. 500 (in units of 10^{20} Mx), the geomagnetic storm intensity measured by the 3-hour Ap index, enhances in average from Ap approx. 50 to a formally maximum value of 400 (in units of 2 nT). The established rela...

  19. Solar and Interplanetary Disturbances causing Moderate Geomagnetic Storms

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Santosh Kumar; M. P. Yadav; Amita Raizada

    2008-03-01

    The effect of solar and interplanetary disturbances on geomagnetospheric conditions leading to 121 moderate geomagnetic storms (MGS) have been investigated using the neutron monitor, solar geophysical and interplanetary data during the period 1978–99. Further, the duration of recovery phase has been observed to be greater than the duration of main phase in most of the cases of MGS. It has further been noted that Ap-index increases on sudden storm commencement (SSC) day than its previous day value and acquires maximum value on the day of maximum solar activity. Generally, the decrease in cosmic ray (CR) intensity and Dst begins few hours earlier than the occurrence of MGS at Earth. Furthermore, negative Bz pointing southward plays a key causal role in the occurrence of MGS and the magnitude and the duration of Bz and Bav also play a significant role in the development of MGS. The solar features H, X-ray solar flares and active prominences and disappearing filaments (APDFs) which have occurred within lower helio-latitudinal/helio-longitudinal zones produce larger number of MGS. Solar flares seem to be the major cause for producing MGS.

  20. Revisiting extreme storms of the past 100 years for future safety of large water management infrastructures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xiaodong; Hossain, Faisal

    2016-07-01

    Historical extreme storm events are widely used to make Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) estimates, which form the cornerstone of large water management infrastructure safety. Past studies suggest that extreme precipitation processes can be sensitive to land surface feedback and the planetary warming trend, which makes the future safety of large infrastructures questionable given the projected changes in land cover and temperature in the coming decades. In this study, a numerical modeling framework was employed to reconstruct 10 extreme storms over CONUS that occurred during the past 100 years, which are used by the engineering profession for PMP estimation for large infrastructures such as dams. Results show that the correlation in daily rainfall for such reconstruction can range between 0.4 and 0.7, while the correlation for maximum 3-day accumulation (a standard period used in infrastructure design) is always above 0.5 for post-1948 storms. This suggests that current numerical modeling and reanalysis data allow us to reconstruct big storms after 1948 with acceptable accuracy. For storms prior to 1948, however, reconstruction of storms shows inconsistency with observations. Our study indicates that numerical modeling and data may not have advanced to a sufficient level to understand how such old storms (pre-1948) may behave in future warming and land cover conditions. However, the infrastructure community can certainly rely on the use of model reconstructed extreme storms of the 1948-present period to reassess safety of our large water infrastructures under assumed changes in temperature and land cover.

  1. Joint probability analysis of extreme precipitation and storm tide in a coastal city under changing environment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kui Xu

    Full Text Available Catastrophic flooding resulting from extreme meteorological events has occurred more frequently and drawn great attention in recent years in China. In coastal areas, extreme precipitation and storm tide are both inducing factors of flooding and therefore their joint probability would be critical to determine the flooding risk. The impact of storm tide or changing environment on flooding is ignored or underestimated in the design of drainage systems of today in coastal areas in China. This paper investigates the joint probability of extreme precipitation and storm tide and its change using copula-based models in Fuzhou City. The change point at the year of 1984 detected by Mann-Kendall and Pettitt's tests divides the extreme precipitation series into two subsequences. For each subsequence the probability of the joint behavior of extreme precipitation and storm tide is estimated by the optimal copula. Results show that the joint probability has increased by more than 300% on average after 1984 (α = 0.05. The design joint return period (RP of extreme precipitation and storm tide is estimated to propose a design standard for future flooding preparedness. For a combination of extreme precipitation and storm tide, the design joint RP has become smaller than before. It implies that flooding would happen more often after 1984, which corresponds with the observation. The study would facilitate understanding the change of flood risk and proposing the adaption measures for coastal areas under a changing environment.

  2. Joint probability analysis of extreme precipitation and storm tide in a coastal city under changing environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Kui; Ma, Chao; Lian, Jijian; Bin, Lingling

    2014-01-01

    Catastrophic flooding resulting from extreme meteorological events has occurred more frequently and drawn great attention in recent years in China. In coastal areas, extreme precipitation and storm tide are both inducing factors of flooding and therefore their joint probability would be critical to determine the flooding risk. The impact of storm tide or changing environment on flooding is ignored or underestimated in the design of drainage systems of today in coastal areas in China. This paper investigates the joint probability of extreme precipitation and storm tide and its change using copula-based models in Fuzhou City. The change point at the year of 1984 detected by Mann-Kendall and Pettitt's tests divides the extreme precipitation series into two subsequences. For each subsequence the probability of the joint behavior of extreme precipitation and storm tide is estimated by the optimal copula. Results show that the joint probability has increased by more than 300% on average after 1984 (α = 0.05). The design joint return period (RP) of extreme precipitation and storm tide is estimated to propose a design standard for future flooding preparedness. For a combination of extreme precipitation and storm tide, the design joint RP has become smaller than before. It implies that flooding would happen more often after 1984, which corresponds with the observation. The study would facilitate understanding the change of flood risk and proposing the adaption measures for coastal areas under a changing environment.

  3. Extreme Storm Data and Analyses in the Southeastern U.S. - Implications for Critical Infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    England, J. F.; Sankovich, V.; Caldwell, J.; Nicholson, T. J.; Randall, J. D.; Kanney, J.

    2010-12-01

    Extreme storm rainfall data in the Southeastern United States are being collected and analyzed to assess their potential impacts on design precipitation amounts. Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) from National Weather Service Hydromet Report 51 is currently used for design rainfall estimates in the eastern U.S. The design precipitation estimates are based on an Army Corps of Engineers storm depth-area duration (D-A-D) catalog that is nearly 40 years old. We develop an electronic D-A-D database of SE U.S. storms for the period 1889-1972 from existing sources, describe the spatial and temporal limitations of those data, and how design estimates based on these data have changed over time. An electronic database of individual extreme storms that have occurred since 1972 near the Carolinas is under development. NWS WSR-88D archive radar data, NOAA Multisensor Precipitation Reanalysis data, NCDC COOP station precipitation data, and NOAA HURDAT information are used in storm analysis. We focus on warm-season tropical cyclones, as these systems are the critical storm rainfall-producing mechanisms in the SE U.S. that result in extreme floods. We examine orographic enhancement of rainfall in the Appalachians, in addition to Piedmont and coastal areas. Exceedance probabilities and uncertainties of design precipitation amounts are being estimated, so that risk-based hazard assessments can potentially be explored. Potential effects of climate variability on the extreme storm estimates, at time-scales of interest in design precipitation applications, are also under investigation.

  4. Climatic aspects of the variability of extreme storm occurrence and intensity in the western Black Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valchev, Nikolay; Trifonova, Ekaterina; Andreeva, Nataliya; Eftimova, Petya

    2010-05-01

    The study considers potential changes in the storm occurrence and intensity over the western Black Sea through analysis of long term series of wind and wave conditions simulated with relatively high resolution. It is a result of coupling of atmospheric and wave models and spans period of more than 62 years (1948-2009). The wave hincast is driven with the global reanalysis data produced by ECMWF and NCEP/NCAR. The continuous dataset is reduced to a series of storms of considerable intensity and/or destructive potential through application of thresholds for filtration of weak seas. They are primarily based on storm impact on the coastal environment and principles for statistical representativeness. The climatic variability of occurrence and intensity of the selected extreme events is analyzed using different criteria such as number of stormy days, wind speed and wave height extremes. Particular consideration is paid to the mean wave energy per storm season and specific storm energy that are found to be more indicative for understanding of the storm pattern variability. Despite of the overall tendency for storminess decrease, there are no incontestable evidences corroborating a marked reduction of the storm intensity. While the total number of stormy hours diminishes, an increase of the mean wave energy is discernible. This is found to be caused by a change of the storm pattern: storms with short growth stage, energetic stage of full development and fast decay are more frequently observed. This storm type still provides significant energy input in the coastal zone and is able of producing considerable morphological impact, including damages. Such storms develop abruptly, therefore, timely prediction and mitigation of hazard effects become more complex to tackle with. Hence, little potential seems to exist for reducing the vulnerability to storms in the western Black Sea. That means the societies must begin to take such far-reaching implications into serious

  5. Solar wind drivers of geomagnetic storms during more than four solar cycles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richardson Ian G.

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Using a classification of the near-Earth solar wind into three basic flow types: (1 High-speed streams associated with coronal holes at the Sun; (2 Slow, interstream solar wind; and (3 Transient flows originating with coronal mass ejections (CMEs at the Sun, including interplanetary CMEs and the associated upstream shocks and post-shock regions, we determine the drivers of geomagnetic storms of various size ranges based on the Kp index and the NOAA “G” criteria since 1964, close to the beginning of the space era, to 2011, encompassing more than four solar cycles (20–23. We also briefly discuss the occurrence of storms since the beginning of the Kp index in 1932, in the minimum before cycle 17. We note that the extended low level of storm activity during the minimum following cycle 23 is without precedent in this 80-year interval. Furthermore, the “typical” numbers of storm days/cycle quoted in the standard NOAA G storm table appear to be significantly higher than those obtained from our analysis, except for the strongest (G5 storms, suggesting that they should be revised downward.

  6. Microstructured extremely thin absorber solar cells

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Biancardo, Matteo; Krebs, Frederik C

    2007-01-01

    In this paper we present the realization of extremely thin absorber (ETA) solar cells employing conductive glass substrates functionalized with TiO2 microstructures produced by embossing. Nanocrystalline or compact TiO2 films on Indium doped tin oxide (ITO) glass substrates were embossed...

  7. Solar sources of interplanetary southward Bz events responsible for major magnetic storms (1978-1979)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Frances; Tsurutani, Bruce T.; Smith, Edward J.; Gonzalez, Walter D.; Akasofu, Syun I.

    1989-01-01

    The solar sources of interplanetary southward Bz events responsible for major magnetic storms observed in the August 1978-December 1979 period were studied using a full complement of solar wind plasma and field data from ISEE 3. It was found that, of the ten major storms observed, seven were initiated by active region flares, and three were associated with prominence eruptions in solar quiet regions. Nine of the storms were associated with interplanetary shocks. However, a comparison of the solar events' characteristics and those of the resulting interplanetary shocks indicated that standard solar parameters did not correlate with the strengths of the resulting shocks at 1 AU.

  8. Solar cycle effect on geomagnetic storms caused by interplanetary magnetic clouds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C.-C. Wu

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available We investigated geomagnetic activity which was induced by interplanetary magnetic clouds during the past four solar cycles, 1965–1998. We have found that the intensity of such geomagnetic storms is more severe in solar maximum than in solar minimum. In addition, we affirm that the average solar wind speed of magnetic clouds is faster in solar maximum than in solar minimum. In this study, we find that solar activity level plays a major role on the intensity of geomagnetic storms. In particular, some new statistical results are found and listed as follows. (1 The intensity of a geomagnetic storm in a solar active period is stronger than in a solar quiet period. (2 The magnitude of negative Bzmin is larger in a solar active period than in a quiet period. (3 Solar wind speed in an active period is faster than in a quiet period. (4 VBsmax in an active period is much larger than in a quiet period. (5 Solar wind parameters, Bzmin, Vmax and VBsmax are correlated well with geomagnetic storm intensity, Dstmin during a solar active period. (6 Solar wind parameters, Bzmin, and VBsmax are not correlated well (very poorly for Vmax with geomagnetic storm intensity during a solar quiet period. (7 The speed of the solar wind plays a key role in the correlation of solar wind parameters vs. the intensity of a geomagnetic storm. (8 More severe storms with Dstmin≤−100 nT caused by MCs occurred in the solar active period than in the solar quiet period.

  9. The May 1967 great storm and radio disruption event: Extreme space weather and extraordinary responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knipp, D. J.; Ramsay, A. C.; Beard, E. D.; Boright, A. L.; Cade, W. B.; Hewins, I. M.; McFadden, R. H.; Denig, W. F.; Kilcommons, L. M.; Shea, M. A.; Smart, D. F.

    2016-09-01

    Although listed as one of the most significant events of the last 80 years, the space weather storm of late May 1967 has been of mostly fading academic interest. The storm made its initial mark with a colossal solar radio burst causing radio interference at frequencies between 0.01 and 9.0 GHz and near-simultaneous disruptions of dayside radio communication by intense fluxes of ionizing solar X-rays. Aspects of military control and communication were immediately challenged. Within hours a solar energetic particle event disrupted high-frequency communication in the polar cap. Subsequently, record-setting geomagnetic and ionospheric storms compounded the disruptions. We explain how the May 1967 storm was nearly one with ultimate societal impact, were it not for the nascent efforts of the United States Air Force in expanding its terrestrial weather monitoring-analysis-warning-prediction efforts into the realm of space weather forecasting. An important and long-lasting outcome of this storm was more formal Department of Defense-support for current-day space weather forecasting. This story develops during the rapid rise of solar cycle 20 and the intense Cold War in the latter half of the twentieth century. We detail the events of late May 1967 in the intersecting categories of solar-terrestrial interactions and the political-military backdrop of the Cold War. This was one of the "Great Storms" of the twentieth century, despite the apparent lack of large geomagnetically induced currents. Radio disruptions like those discussed here warrant the attention of today's radio-reliant, cellular-phone and satellite-navigation enabled world.

  10. Impact assessment of extreme storm events using a Bayesian network

    Science.gov (United States)

    den Heijer, C.(Kees); Knipping, Dirk T.J.A.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; van Thiel de Vries, Jaap S. M.; Baart, Fedor; van Gelder, Pieter H. A. J. M.

    2012-01-01

    This paper describes an investigation on the usefulness of Bayesian Networks in the safety assessment of dune coasts. A network has been created that predicts the erosion volume based on hydraulic boundary conditions and a number of cross-shore profile indicators. Field measurement data along a large part of the Dutch coast has been used to train the network. Corresponding storm impact on the dunes was calculated with an empirical dune erosion model named duros+. Comparison between the Bayesian Network predictions and the original duros+ results, here considered as observations, results in a skill up to 0.88, provided that the training data covers the range of predictions. Hence, the predictions from a deterministic model (duros+) can be captured in a probabilistic model (Bayesian Network) such that both the process knowledge and uncertainties can be included in impact and vulnerability assessments.

  11. Multivariate extreme value analysis of storm surges in SCS on peak over threshold method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Luo

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available We use a novel statistical approach-MGPD to analyze the joint probability distribution of storm surge events at two sites and present a warning method for storm surges at two adjacent positions in Beibu Gulf, using the sufficiently long field data on surge levels at two sites. The methodology also develops the procedure of application of MGPD, which includes joint threshold and Monte Carlo simulation, to handle multivariate extreme values analysis. By comparing the simulation result with analytic solution, it is shown that the relative error of the Monte Carlo simulation is less than 8.6 %. By running MGPD model based on long data at Beihai and Dongfang, the simulated potential surge results can be employed in storm surge warnings of Beihai and joint extreme water level predictions of two sites.

  12. A European precipitation index for extreme rain-storm and flash flood early warning

    OpenAIRE

    ALFIERI LORENZO; THIELEN DEL POZO Jutta

    2012-01-01

    Extreme rain-storms are known for triggering devastating flash floods in various regions of Europe and particularly along the Mediterranean coasts. Despite recent notable advances in weather forecasting, most operational early warning systems for extreme rainstorms and flash floods are based on rainfall estimation, rather than on forecasts. As a result, warning lead times are bounded to few hours and warnings are usually issued when the event is already taking place. This work proposes a n...

  13. Hourly storm characteristics along the U.S. West Coast: Role of atmospheric rivers in extreme precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamjiri, Maryam A.; Dettinger, Michael; Ralph, F. Martin; Guan, B.

    2017-01-01

    Gridded hourly precipitation observations over the conterminous U.S., from 1948 to 2002, are analyzed to determine climatological characteristics of storm precipitation totals. Despite generally lower hourly intensities, precipitation totals along the U.S. West Coast (USWC) are comparable to those in southeast U.S. (SEUS). Storm durations, more so than hourly intensities, strongly modulate precipitation-total variability over the USWC, where the correlation coefficients between storm durations and storm totals range from 0.7 to 0.9. Atmospheric rivers (ARs) contribute 30–50% of annual precipitation on the USWC and make such large contributions to extreme storms that 60–100% of the most extreme storms, i.e., storms with precipitation-total return intervals longer than 2 years, are associated with ARs. These extreme storm totals are more strongly tied to storm durations than to storm hourly or average intensities, emphasizing the importance of AR persistence to extreme storms on the USWC.

  14. Establishing a Numerical Modeling Framework for Hydrologic Engineering Analyses of Extreme Storm Events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Xiaodong; Hossain, Faisal; Leung, L. Ruby

    2017-08-01

    In this study a numerical modeling framework for simulating extreme storm events was established using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Such a framework is necessary for the derivation of engineering parameters such as probable maximum precipitation that are the cornerstone of large water management infrastructure design. Here this framework was built based on a heavy storm that occurred in Nashville (USA) in 2010, and verified using two other extreme storms. To achieve the optimal setup, several combinations of model resolutions, initial/boundary conditions (IC/BC), cloud microphysics and cumulus parameterization schemes were evaluated using multiple metrics of precipitation characteristics. The evaluation suggests that WRF is most sensitive to IC/BC option. Simulation generally benefits from finer resolutions up to 5 km. At the 15km level, NCEP2 IC/BC produces better results, while NAM IC/BC performs best at the 5km level. Recommended model configuration from this study is: NAM or NCEP2 IC/BC (depending on data availability), 15km or 15km-5km nested grids, Morrison microphysics and Kain-Fritsch cumulus schemes. Validation of the optimal framework suggests that these options are good starting choices for modeling extreme events similar to the test cases. This optimal framework is proposed in response to emerging engineering demands of extreme storm events forecasting and analyses for design, operations and risk assessment of large water infrastructures.

  15. Low-dimensionality and predictability of solar wind and global magnetosphere during magnetic storms

    CERN Document Server

    Zivkovic, Tatjana

    2011-01-01

    The storm index SYM-H, the solar wind velocity v, and interplanetary magnetic field Bz show no signatures of low-dimensional dynamics in quiet periods, but tests for determinism in the time series indicate that SYM-H exhibits a significant low-dimensional component during storm time, suggesting that self-organization takes place during magnetic storms. Even though our analysis yields no discernible change in determinism during magnetic storms for the solar wind parameters, there are significant enhancement of the predictability and exponents measuring persistence. Thus, magnetic storms are typically preceded by an increase in the persistence of the solar wind dynamics, and this increase is also present in the magnetospheric response to the solar wind.

  16. The Relation between Extreme Weather Events and the Solar Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battinelli, P.; di Fazio, A.; Torelli, M.

    The oscillating part of the solar irradiance drives the cyclic component of the variations of the terrestrial atmosphere's thermodynamic state. In particular, the average temperature, and thus the turbulent atmospheric fuxes, are influenced. Reliable temperature data exist from ~220,000 years, while accurate solar irradiance space measurements (not affected by the atmosphere's absorption) are available only since 1979. Actually, there is a rather long data-set regarding solar activity, indicated by the Wolf number, which is found to be well correlated with the total solar flux. Thus, we use the Wolf number as a quantitative proxy of the incident flux, even in the interval before the space-based measurements. The fraction of solar energy trapped in the atmosphere due to the re-absorption of the infrared radiation by the greenhouse gases is an increasing function of time (in the latter 150-160 years). Over this interval, we spectrally analyzed the time series of both the Wolf number and the frequencies of extreme meteorological events, isolating and removing in the latter the cyclic components due to the periodic part of the radiative forcing exherted by the Sun. We were thus able to determine the time trend in the data regarding the observed frequencies of the U.S. continental tornadoes (National Center for Atmospheric Research) and of the global cyclones (hurricanes and tropical storms on all ocean basins, National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration). We find, for both the data sets an exponential behaviour, with e-folding times: for the cyclones tau ~= 110 years, and for the tornadoes tau ~= 70 years. We are happy to have given --through this work-- a contribution to the interdisciplinary scientific process coordinated by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) through the ICSU (International Council of Scientific Unions) which takes place a latere of the international negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

  17. Preface: Monitoring and modelling to guide coastal adaptation to extreme storm events in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, J. M.; Ciavola, P.; Masselink, G.; McCall, R.; Plater, A. J.

    2016-02-01

    Storms across the globe and their associated consequences in coastal zones (flooding and erosion), combined with the long-term geomorphic evolution of our coastlines, are a threat to life and assets, both socioeconomic and environmental. In a changing climate, with a rising global sea level, potentially changing patterns in storm tracks and storminess, and rising population density and pressures on the coastal zone, the future risk of coastal storm impacts is likely to increase. Coastal managers and policy makers therefore need to make effective and timely decisions on the use of resources for the immediate and longer Research focused on "monitoring and modelling to guide coastal adaptation to extreme storm events in a changing climate" is becoming more common; its goal is to provide science-based decision support for effective adaptation to the consequences of storm impacts, both now and under future climate scenarios at the coast. The growing transfer of information between the science community and end-users is enabling leading research to have a greater impact on the socioeconomic resilience of coastal communities. This special issue covers recent research activities relating to coastal hazard mapping in response to extreme events, economic impacts of long-term change, coastal processes influencing management decisions and the development of online decision support tools.

  18. A multivariate extreme wave and storm surge climate emulator based on weather patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rueda, A.; Camus, P.; Tomás, A.; Vitousek, S.; Méndez, F. J.

    2016-08-01

    Coastal floods often coincide with large waves, storm surge and tides. Thus, joint probability methods are needed to properly characterize extreme sea levels. This work introduces a statistical downscaling framework for multivariate extremes that relates the non-stationary behavior of coastal flooding events to the occurrence probability of daily weather patterns. The proposed method is based on recently-developed weather-type methods to predict extreme events (e.g., significant wave height, mean wave period, surge level) from large-scale sea-level pressure fields. For each weather type, variables of interest are modeled using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions and a Gaussian copula for modelling the interdependence between variables. The statistical dependence between consecutive days is addressed by defining a climate-based extremal index for each weather type. This work allows attribution of extreme events to specific weather conditions, enhancing the knowledge of climate-driven coastal flooding.

  19. Design and quantification of an extreme winter storm scenario for emergency preparedness and planning exercises in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, M.D.; Martin, Ralph F.; Hughes, M.; Das, T.; Neiman, P.; Cox, D.; Estes, G.; Reynolds, D.; Hartman, R.; Cayan, D.; Jones, L.

    2012-01-01

    The USGS Multihazards Project is working with numerous agencies to evaluate and plan for hazards and damages that could be caused by extreme winter storms impacting California. Atmospheric and hydrological aspects of a hypothetical storm scenario have been quantified as a basis for estimation of human, infrastructure, economic, and environmental impacts for emergency-preparedness and flood-planning exercises. In order to ensure scientific defensibility and necessary levels of detail in the scenario description, selected historical storm episodes were concatentated to describe a rapid arrival of several major storms over the state, yielding precipitation totals and runoff rates beyond those occurring during the individual historical storms. This concatenation allowed the scenario designers to avoid arbitrary scalings and is based on historical occasions from the 19th and 20th Centuries when storms have stalled over the state and when extreme storms have arrived in rapid succession. Dynamically consistent, hourly precipitation, temperatures, barometric pressures (for consideration of storm surges and coastal erosion), and winds over California were developed for the so-called ARkStorm scenario by downscaling the concatenated global records of the historical storm sequences onto 6- and 2-km grids using a regional weather model of January 1969 and February 1986 storm conditions. The weather model outputs were then used to force a hydrologic model to simulate ARkStorm runoff, to better understand resulting flooding risks. Methods used to build this scenario can be applied to other emergency, nonemergency and non-California applications. ?? 2011 The Author(s).

  20. The Solar Extreme Ultraviolet Monitor for MAVEN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eparvier, F. G.; Chamberlin, P. C.; Woods, T. N.; Thiemann, E. M. B.

    2015-12-01

    The Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) monitor is an instrument on the NASA Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) mission, designed to measure the variability of the solar soft x-rays and EUV irradiance at Mars. The solar output in this wavelength range is a primary energy input to the Mars atmosphere and a driver for the processes leading to atmospheric escape. The MAVEN EUV monitor consists of three broadband radiometers. The radiometers consist of silicon photodiodes with different bandpass-limiting filters for each channel. The filters for the radiometers are: Channel A: thin foil C/Al/Nb/C for 0.1-3 nm and 17-22 nm, Channel B: thin foil C/Al/Ti/C for 0.1-7 nm, and Channel C: interference filter for 121-122 nm. A fourth, covered photodiode is used to monitor variations in dark signal due to temperature and radiation background changes. The three science channels will monitor emissions from the highly variable corona and transition region of the solar atmosphere. The EUV monitor is mounted on the top deck of the MAVEN spacecraft and is pointed at the Sun for most of its orbit around Mars. The measurement cadence is 1-second. The broadband irradiances can be used to monitor the most rapid changes in solar irradiance due to flares. In combination with time-interpolated observations at Earth of slower varying solar spectral emissions, the broadband MAVEN EUV monitor measurements will also be used in a spectral irradiance model to generate the full EUV spectrum at Mars from 0 to 190 nm in 1-nm bins on a time cadence of 1-minute and daily averages.

  1. XBeach-G: a tool for predicting gravel barrier response to extreme storm conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masselink, Gerd; Poate, Tim; McCall, Robert; Roelvink, Dano; Russell, Paul; Davidson, Mark

    2014-05-01

    Gravel beaches protect low-lying back-barrier regions from flooding during storm events and their importance to society is widely acknowledged. Unfortunately, breaching and extensive storm damage has occurred at many gravel sites and this is likely to increase as a result of sea-level rise and enhanced storminess due to climate change. Limited scientific guidance is currently available to provide beach managers with operational management tools to predict the response of gravel beaches to storms. The New Understanding and Prediction of Storm Impacts on Gravel beaches (NUPSIG) project aims to improve our understanding of storm impacts on gravel coastal environments and to develop a predictive capability by modelling these impacts. The NUPSIG project uses a 5-pronged approach to address its aim: (1) analyse hydrodynamic data collected during a proto-type laboratory experiment on a gravel beach; (2) collect hydrodynamic field data on a gravel beach under a range of conditions, including storm waves with wave heights up to 3 m; (3) measure swash dynamics and beach response on 10 gravel beaches during extreme wave conditions with wave heights in excess of 3 m; (4) use the data collected under 1-3 to develop and validate a numerical model to model hydrodynamics and morphological response of gravel beaches under storm conditions; and (5) develop a tool for end-users, based on the model formulated under (4), for predicting storm response of gravel beaches and barriers. The aim of this presentation is to present the key results of the NUPSIG project and introduce the end-user tool for predicting storm response on gravel beaches. The model is based on the numerical model XBeach, and different forcing scenarios (wave and tides), barrier configurations (dimensions) and sediment characteristics are easily uploaded for model simulations using a Graphics User Interface (GUI). The model can be used to determine the vulnerability of gravel barriers to storm events, but can also be

  2. Re-visit of ionosphere storm morphology with TEC data in the current solar cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cander, Ljiljana R.

    2016-02-01

    This paper addresses the magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere (M-I-T) storm effects, with emphasis on 15 major geomagnetic storms in the current solar cycle as far as May 2015. It is an ionosphere storm response-case analysis based on the vertical total electron content (VTEC) observations at mid-latitude Global Positioning System (GPS) ground-based station HERS (0.33°E, 50.86°N). The time dependent features of ionospheric storms are examined with ∆VTEC defined as the percent change of VTEC during storm time relative to quiet time represented by its monthly median value at the same UT. During a specific event of April 2010 storm, the F2 layer peak electron density (NmF2) data at collocated Chilton (358.67°E, 51.70°N) ionosonde station are used for comparison. The seasonal dependence of the storms is identified and the strength of both positive and negative storms phases is correlated with the intensity of the geomagnetic storms. The focus is on localized characteristics of these solar-terrestrial disturbances and the relative roles of inherent physical and chemical processes that appear to be so changeable from one event to the other generating significant variability in ionospheric responses. The implications of these results for the persistence, certainty and consequently predictability of ionosphric storms are discussed and conclusions drown.

  3. Multiwavelength Study on Solar and Interplanetary Origins of the Strongest Geomagnetic Storm of Solar Cycle 23

    CERN Document Server

    Kumar, Pankaj; Uddin, Wahab

    2011-01-01

    We study the solar sources of an intense geomagnetic storm of solar cycle 23 that occurred on 20 November 2003, based on ground- and space-based multiwavelength observations. The coronal mass ejections (CMEs) responsible for the above geomagnetic storm originated from the super-active region NOAA 10501. We investigate the H-alpha observations of the flare events made with a 15 cm solar tower telescope at ARIES, Nainital, India. The propagation characteristics of the CMEs have been derived from the three-dimensional images of the solar wind (i.e., density and speed) obtained from the interplanetary scintillation data, supplemented with other ground- and space-based measurements. The TRACE, SXI and H-alpha observations revealed two successive ejections (of speeds ~350 and ~100 km/s), originating from the same filament channel, which were associated with two high speed CMEs (~1223 and ~1660 km/s, respectively). These two ejections generated propagating fast shock waves (i.e., fast drifting type II radio bursts) ...

  4. TRMM precipitation analysis of extreme storms in South America: Bias and climatological contribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasmussen, K. L.; Houze, R.; Zuluaga, M. D.; Choi, S. L.; Chaplin, M.

    2013-12-01

    The TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite was designed both to measure spatial and temporal variation of tropical rainfall around the globe and to understand the factors controlling the precipitation. TRMM observations have led to the realization that storms just east of the Andes in southeastern South America are among the most intense deep convection in the world. For a complete perspective of the impact of intense precipitation systems on the hydrologic cycle in South America, it is necessary to assess the contribution from various forms of extreme storms to the climatological rainfall. However, recent studies have suggested that the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) algorithm significantly underestimates surface rainfall in deep convection over land. Prior to investigating the climatological behavior, this research first investigates the range of the rain bias in storms containing four different types of extreme radar echoes: deep convective cores, deep and wide convective cores, wide convective cores, and broad stratiform regions over South America. The TRMM PR algorithm exhibits bias in all four extreme echo types considered here when the algorithm rates are compared to a range of conventional Z-R relations. Storms with deep convective cores, defined as high reflectivity echo volumes that extend above 10 km in altitude, show the greatest underestimation, and the bias is unrelated to their echo top height. The bias in wide convective cores, defined as high reflectivity echo volumes that extend horizontally over 1,000 km2, relates to the echo top, indicating that storms with significant mixed phase and ice hydrometeors are similarly affected by assumptions in the TRMM PR algorithm. The subtropical region tends to have more intense precipitating systems than the tropics, but the relationship between the TRMM PR rain bias and storm type is the same regardless of the climatological regime. The most extreme storms are typically not collocated with

  5. An ensemble study of extreme North Sea storm surges in a changing climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Sterl

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The height of storm surges is extremely important for a low-lying country like the Netherlands. By law, part of the coastal defence system has to withstand a water level that on average occurs only once every 10 000 years. The question then arises whether and how climate change affects the heights of extreme storm surges. Published research points to only small changes. However, due to the limited amount of data available results are usually limited to relatively frequent extremes like the annual 99%-ile. We here report on results from a 17-member ensemble of North Sea water levels spaning the period 1950–2100. It was created by forcing a surge model of the North Sea with meteorological output from a state-of-the-art global climate model which has been driven by greenhouse gas emissions following the SRES A1b scenario. The large ensemble size enables us to calculate 10 000 year return water levels with a low statistical uncertainty. We find no statistically significant change in the 10 000 year return values of surge heights along the Dutch during the 21st century. Also a higher sea level resulting from global warming does not impact the height of the storm surges. As a side effect of our simulations we also obtain results on the interplay between surge and tide.

  6. Regional frequency analysis of extreme storm surges along the French coast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Bardet

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available A good knowledge of extreme storm surges is necessary to ensure protection against flood. In this paper we introduce a methodology to determine time series of skew surges in France as well as a statistical approach for estimating extreme storm surges. With the aim to cope with the outlier issue in surge series, a regional frequency analysis has been carried out for the surges along the Atlantic coast and the Channel coast. This methodology is not the current approach used to estimate extreme surges in France. First results showed that the extreme events identified as outliers in at-site analyses do not appear to be outliers any more in the regional empirical distribution. Indeed the regional distribution presents a curve to the top with these extreme events that a mixed exponential distribution seems to recreate. Thus, the regional approach appears to be more reliable for some sites than at-site analyses. A fast comparison at a given site showed surge estimates with the regional approach and a mixed exponential distribution are higher than surge estimates with an at-site fitting. In the case of Brest, the 1000-yr return surge is 167 cm in height with the regional approach instead of 126 cm with an at-site analysis.

  7. Jupiter's Spot Seen Glowing - Scientists Get First Look at Weather Inside the Solar System's Biggest Storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-01

    New ground-breaking thermal images obtained with ESO's Very Large Telescope and other powerful ground-based telescopes show swirls of warmer air and cooler regions never seen before within Jupiter's Great Red Spot, enabling scientists to make the first detailed interior weather map of the giant storm system linking its temperature, winds, pressure and composition with its colour. "This is our first detailed look inside the biggest storm of the Solar System," says Glenn Orton, who led the team of astronomers that made the study. "We once thought the Great Red Spot was a plain old oval without much structure, but these new results show that it is, in fact, extremely complicated." The observations reveal that the reddest colour of the Great Red Spot corresponds to a warm core within the otherwise cold storm system, and images show dark lanes at the edge of the storm where gases are descending into the deeper regions of the planet. The observations, detailed in a paper appearing in the journal Icarus, give scientists a sense of the circulation patterns within the solar system's best-known storm system. Sky gazers have been observing the Great Red Spot in one form or another for hundreds of years, with continuous observations of its current shape dating back to the 19th century. The spot, which is a cold region averaging about -160 degrees Celsius, is so wide that about three Earths could fit inside its boundaries. The thermal images were mostly obtained with the VISIR [1] instrument attached to ESO's Very Large Telescope in Chile, with additional data coming from the Gemini South telescope in Chile and the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan's Subaru Telescope in Hawaii. The images have provided an unprecedented level of resolution and extended the coverage provided by NASA's Galileo spacecraft in the late 1990s. Together with observations of the deep cloud structure by the 3-metre NASA Infrared Telescope Facility in Hawaii, the level of thermal detail observed

  8. ARkStorm@Tahoe: Stakeholder perspectives on vulnerabilities and preparedness for an extreme storm event in the greater Lake Tahoe, Reno, and Carson City region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albano, Christine M.; Cox, Dale A.; Dettinger, Michael; Shaller, Kevin; Welborn, Toby L.; McCarthy, Maureen

    2014-01-01

    Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are strongly linked to extreme winter precipitation events in the Western U.S., accounting for 80 percent of extreme floods in the Sierra Nevada and surrounding lowlands. In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey developed the ARkStorm extreme storm scenario for California to quantify risks from extreme winter storms and to allow stakeholders to better explore and mitigate potential impacts. To explore impacts on natural resources and communities in montane and adjacent environments, we downscaled the scenario to the greater Lake Tahoe, Reno and Carson City region of northern Nevada and California. This ArkStorm@Tahoe scenario was presented at six stakeholder meetings, each with a different geographic and subject matter focus. Discussions were facilitated by the ARkStorm@Tahoe team to identify social and ecological vulnerabilities to extreme winter storms, science and information needs, and proactive measures that might minimize impacts from this type of event. Information collected in these meetings was used to develop a tabletop emergency response exercise and set of recommendations for increasing resilience to extreme winter storm events in both Tahoe and the downstream communities of Northern Nevada.Over 300 individuals participated in ARkStorm@Tahoe stakeholder meetings and the emergency response exercise, including representatives from emergency response, natural resource and ecosystem management, health and human services, public utilities, and businesses. Interruption of transportation, communications, and lack of power and backup fuel supplies were identified as the most likely and primary points of failure across multiple sectors and geographies, as these interruptions have cascading effects on natural and human systems by impeding emergency response efforts. Other key issues that arose in discussions included contamination risks to water supplies and aquatic ecosystems, especially in the Tahoe Basin and Pyramid Lake, interagency

  9. 76 FR 38360 - Workshop-Monitoring Changes in Extreme Storm Statistics: State of Knowledge; Notice of Open...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-30

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Workshop--Monitoring Changes in Extreme Storm Statistics: State of Knowledge; Notice of Open Public Workshop AGENCY: National Environmental Satellite, Data,...

  10. Similarities between extreme events in the solar-terrestrial system by means of nonextensivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Balasis

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The dynamics of complex systems are founded on universal principles that can be used to describe disparate problems ranging from particle physics to economies of societies. A corollary is that transferring ideas and results from investigators in hitherto disparate areas will cross-fertilize and lead to important new results. In this contribution, we investigate the existence of a universal behavior, if any, in solar flares, magnetic storms, earthquakes and pre-seismic electromagnetic (EM emissions, extending the work recently published by Balasis et al. (2011a. A common characteristic in the dynamics of the above-mentioned phenomena is that their energy release is basically fragmentary, i.e. the associated events are being composed of elementary building blocks. By analogy with earthquakes, the magnitude of the magnetic storms, solar flares and pre-seismic EM emissions can be appropriately defined. Then the key question we can ask in the frame of complexity is whether the magnitude distribution of earthquakes, magnetic storms, solar flares and pre-fracture EM emissions obeys the same law. We show that these apparently different extreme events, which occur in the solar-terrestrial system, follow the same energy distribution function. The latter was originally derived for earthquake dynamics in the framework of nonextensive Tsallis statistics.

  11. Similarities between extreme events in the solar-terrestrial system by means of nonextensivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balasis, G.; Papadimitriou, C.; Daglis, I. A.; Anastasiadis, A.; Sandberg, I.; Eftaxias, K.

    2011-09-01

    The dynamics of complex systems are founded on universal principles that can be used to describe disparate problems ranging from particle physics to economies of societies. A corollary is that transferring ideas and results from investigators in hitherto disparate areas will cross-fertilize and lead to important new results. In this contribution, we investigate the existence of a universal behavior, if any, in solar flares, magnetic storms, earthquakes and pre-seismic electromagnetic (EM) emissions, extending the work recently published by Balasis et al. (2011a). A common characteristic in the dynamics of the above-mentioned phenomena is that their energy release is basically fragmentary, i.e. the associated events are being composed of elementary building blocks. By analogy with earthquakes, the magnitude of the magnetic storms, solar flares and pre-seismic EM emissions can be appropriately defined. Then the key question we can ask in the frame of complexity is whether the magnitude distribution of earthquakes, magnetic storms, solar flares and pre-fracture EM emissions obeys the same law. We show that these apparently different extreme events, which occur in the solar-terrestrial system, follow the same energy distribution function. The latter was originally derived for earthquake dynamics in the framework of nonextensive Tsallis statistics.

  12. Two-step forecast of geomagnetic storm using coronal mass ejection and solar wind condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, R-S; Moon, Y-J; Gopalswamy, N; Park, Y-D; Kim, Y-H

    2014-01-01

    To forecast geomagnetic storms, we had examined initially observed parameters of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and introduced an empirical storm forecast model in a previous study. Now we suggest a two-step forecast considering not only CME parameters observed in the solar vicinity but also solar wind conditions near Earth to improve the forecast capability. We consider the empirical solar wind criteria derived in this study (Bz ≤ −5 nT or Ey ≥ 3 mV/m for t≥ 2 h for moderate storms with minimum Dst less than −50 nT) and a Dst model developed by Temerin and Li (2002, 2006) (TL model). Using 55 CME-Dst pairs during 1997 to 2003, our solar wind criteria produce slightly better forecasts for 31 storm events (90%) than the forecasts based on the TL model (87%). However, the latter produces better forecasts for 24 nonstorm events (88%), while the former correctly forecasts only 71% of them. We then performed the two-step forecast. The results are as follows: (i) for 15 events that are incorrectly forecasted using CME parameters, 12 cases (80%) can be properly predicted based on solar wind conditions; (ii) if we forecast a storm when both CME and solar wind conditions are satisfied (∩), the critical success index becomes higher than that from the forecast using CME parameters alone, however, only 25 storm events (81%) are correctly forecasted; and (iii) if we forecast a storm when either set of these conditions is satisfied (∪), all geomagnetic storms are correctly forecasted. PMID:26213515

  13. Using Extreme Value Theory for Determining the Probability of Carrington-Like Solar Flares

    CERN Document Server

    Elvidge, Sean

    2016-01-01

    Space weather events can negatively affect satellites, the electricity grid, satellite navigation systems and human health. As a consequence, extreme space weather has been added to the UK and other national risk registers. However, by their very nature, extreme events occur rarely and statistical methods are required to determine the probability of occurrence solar storms. Space weather events can be characterised by a number of natural phenomena such as X-ray (solar) flares, solar energetic particle (SEP) fluxes, coronal mass ejections and various geophysical indices (Dst, Kp, F10.7). Here we use extreme value theory (EVT) to investigate the probability of extreme solar flares. Previous work has suggested that the distribution of solar flares follows a power law. However such an approach can lead to overly "fat-tails" in the probability distribution function and thus to an under estimation of the return time of such events. Using EVT and GOES X-ray flux data we find that the expected 150 year return level i...

  14. Stationarity of extreme bursts in the solar wind.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moloney, N R; Davidsen, J

    2014-05-01

    Recent results have suggested that the statistics of bursts in the solar wind vary with solar cycle. Here, we show that this variation is basically absent if one considers extreme bursts. These are defined as threshold-exceeding events over the range of high thresholds for which their number decays as a power law. In particular, we find that the distribution of duration times and energies of extreme bursts in the solar wind ε parameter and similar observables are independent of the solar cycle and in this sense stationary, and show robust asymptotic power laws with exponents that are independent of the specific threshold. This is consistent with what has been observed for solar flares and, thus, provides evidence in favor of a link between solar flares and extreme bursts in the solar wind.

  15. Implementing Extreme Value Analysis in a Geospatial Workflow for Storm Surge Hazard Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catelli, J.; Nong, S.

    2014-12-01

    Gridded data of 100-yr (1%) and 500-yr (0.2%) storm surge flood elevations for the United States, Gulf of Mexico, and East Coast are critical to understanding this natural hazard. Storm surge heights were calculated across the study area utilizing SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes) model data for thousands of synthetic US landfalling hurricanes. Based on the results derived from SLOSH, a series of interpolations were performed using spatial analysis in a geographic information system (GIS) at both the SLOSH basin and the synthetic event levels. The result was a single grid of maximum flood elevations for each synthetic event. This project addresses the need to utilize extreme value theory in a geospatial environment to analyze coincident cells across multiple synthetic events. The results are 100-yr (1%) and 500-yr (0.2%) values for each grid cell in the study area. This talk details a geospatial approach to move raster data to SciPy's NumPy Array structure using the Python programming language. The data are then connected through a Python library to an outside statistical package like R to fit cell values to extreme value theory distributions and return values for specified recurrence intervals. While this is not a new process, the value behind this work is the ability to keep this process in a single geospatial environment and be able to easily replicate this process for other natural hazard applications and extreme event modeling.

  16. Understanding and predicting the impact of extreme storms events on European coastlines: the MICORE approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciavola, P.

    2009-04-01

    Both the EU and The United Nations are now taking seriously the predicted climate change scenarios of the IPCC. Of particular relevance to Integrated Coastal Zone Management is the predicted increase in the intensity and frequency of powerful storm events characterised by larger peak wind speeds and consequently larger waves. Engineering has usually been favoured in the past as the best option for disaster mitigation at the coast. However, most engineering works are constrained by economics, and a compromise is sought between the potential threat to lives and property and the resources available for design and construction. Furthermore, the design of structures is based on predicted extreme events which themselves are subject to uncertainty, especially in a rapidly changing global climate. The huge damage to the city of New Orleans by Hurricane Katrina illustrates clearly what can go wrong when the engineering design is subjected to forcing beyond its design limits and when civil evacuation and management plans fail. The proposed paper will address the issue of encouraging and facilitating exchange of information on storm impacts produced by nationally funded projects in Member States; establishing robust data management and data quality control and engaging with stakeholders and end users to optimise dissemination strategies. It will heavily rely on the information produced by the MICORE Project (FP7 contract 202798), using and enlarging the database collated by the project regarding the characteristics of extreme storm events occurred in the last 50 years. The MICORE project (www.micore.eu) will provide the knowledge necessary to assess the present day risks and to study the economic and social impact of future severe storm events. Together, these elements will have an important strategic impact on the safety of the people living in coastal areas and upon decision processes aimed at minimising the economic consequences of extreme events. The project will also

  17. Effects of two dust storms on solar radiation in the Beijing-Tianjin area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, M.; Chen, Z.; Huang, R.; Wang, Q.; Arimoto, R.; Parungo, F.; Lenschow, D.; Okada, K.; Wu, P. [National Research Center for Marine Environm, Forecasts, Beijing (Taiwan, Province of China)]|[Univ. of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI (United States)]|[NOAA, Boulder, CO (United States)]|[National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)]|[Meteorological Research Inst., Tsukuba (Japan)

    1994-12-01

    Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) albedo data obtained from the NOAA-11 satellite and chemical data for aerosol particle samples collected in Beijing were intepreted together with meteorological data to study the radiative effects of Asian dust. Compared with the clea-sky background, the albedo values for the Beijing area during two dust storms in April 1993 increased by 20 to 125%; the direct solar radiation flux at the surface decreased; and the scattered radiation flux at the surface increased. The total solar radiation flux at the ground during the two dust storms decreased by 40% and 10% respectively. Furthermore, the extent of the changes was related to the strength of the dust storms. This paper demonstrates the feasibility of using satellite data to study the radiative forcing of dust storms.

  18. Two-Step Forecast of Geomagnetic Storm Using Coronal Mass Ejection and Solar Wind Condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, R.-S.; Moon, Y.-J.; Gopalswamy, N.; Park, Y.-D.; Kim, Y.-H.

    2014-01-01

    To forecast geomagnetic storms, we had examined initially observed parameters of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and introduced an empirical storm forecast model in a previous study. Now we suggest a two-step forecast considering not only CME parameters observed in the solar vicinity but also solar wind conditions near Earth to improve the forecast capability. We consider the empirical solar wind criteria derived in this study (Bz = -5 nT or Ey = 3 mV/m for t = 2 h for moderate storms with minimum Dst less than -50 nT) (i.e. Magnetic Field Magnitude, B (sub z) less than or equal to -5 nanoTeslas or duskward Electrical Field, E (sub y) greater than or equal to 3 millivolts per meter for time greater than or equal to 2 hours for moderate storms with Minimum Disturbance Storm Time, Dst less than -50 nanoTeslas) and a Dst model developed by Temerin and Li (2002, 2006) (TL [i.e. Temerin Li] model). Using 55 CME-Dst pairs during 1997 to 2003, our solar wind criteria produce slightly better forecasts for 31 storm events (90 percent) than the forecasts based on the TL model (87 percent). However, the latter produces better forecasts for 24 nonstorm events (88 percent), while the former correctly forecasts only 71 percent of them. We then performed the two-step forecast. The results are as follows: (i) for 15 events that are incorrectly forecasted using CME parameters, 12 cases (80 percent) can be properly predicted based on solar wind conditions; (ii) if we forecast a storm when both CME and solar wind conditions are satisfied (n, i.e. cap operator - the intersection set that is comprised of all the elements that are common to both), the critical success index becomes higher than that from the forecast using CME parameters alone, however, only 25 storm events (81 percent) are correctly forecasted; and (iii) if we forecast a storm when either set of these conditions is satisfied (?, i.e. cup operator - the union set that is comprised of all the elements of either or both

  19. Extreme Storm Surges and Coastal Flooding: Intangible Flood Losses in Integrated Risk Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D.R. Dassanayake

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available German coasts are often affected by extreme storm surges which have already led to major damages along the coastline in the past. The joint research project “XtremRisK” was initiated with the main objective of enhancing the knowledge with respect to the uncertainties of extreme storm surge predictions as well as quantifying exemplarily the flood risk under current conditions and future climate scenarios for two pilot sites in Germany: Sylt Island representative for an open coast and Hamburg for an estuarine urban area. Flood risk is generally determined by the product of the flooding probability and the possible losses associated with the flood event. Flood losses are categorized as tangible and intangible depending on whether or not the losses can be assessed in monetary values. Up to date, intangible loses are not or only partially incorporated in flood risk analysis due to the lack of appropriate evaluation and integration methodologies. This study focuses on developing methodologies for the evaluation of intangible losses due to flooding and for their integration with tangible losses in flood risk analysis

  20. Synoptic examples of solar-terrestrial storming events for space weather education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habash Krause, L.; Knipp, D. J.

    2005-05-01

    With the ever-growing dependence on space based systems as part of modern society's day-to-day infrastructure, space weather courses are playing an increasingly important role in many educational venues. Because courses of this nature are often conducted as survey courses, bounding the scope and the level of depth of material to be covered in any given course remains a challenge. Often students may "lose the forest for the trees;" that is, they may focus on the details of individual processes to the point where it is difficult to grasp the connections between processes that are germane to a complete understanding of space weather. With this paper, the authors present a set of examples of candidate storms that we believe are effective at tying together storms on the sun with those in the near-earth space environment and the resulting space weather effects on manmade systems. We propose that it would be most appropriate to present these so-called synoptic storm studies toward the end of the course. The idea is to build on the understanding of specific processes that have been learned throughout the course. Each study would begin with a storm on the sun, and then progress through the modification of the solar wind due to the solar storm, then the interaction between the solar wind and the earth's magnetosphere, ionosphere, upper atmosphere, and then finally any ground-based processes. The study would conclude with the effects on man-made systems. The candidate studies that will be covered in the talk include the May 1989 storm that resulted in massive power outages in Canada, the May 1998 compound storm, and the October 2004 Halloween storms that produced the largest x-ray flares on record to date.

  1. Spatial and temporal analysis of extreme sea level and storm surge events around the coastline of the UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haigh, Ivan D; Wadey, Matthew P; Wahl, Thomas; Ozsoy, Ozgun; Nicholls, Robert J; Brown, Jennifer M; Horsburgh, Kevin; Gouldby, Ben

    2016-12-06

    In this paper we analyse the spatial footprint and temporal clustering of extreme sea level and skew surge events around the UK coast over the last 100 years (1915-2014). The vast majority of the extreme sea level events are generated by moderate, rather than extreme skew surges, combined with spring astronomical high tides. We distinguish four broad categories of spatial footprints of events and the distinct storm tracks that generated them. There have been rare events when extreme levels have occurred along two unconnected coastal regions during the same storm. The events that occur in closest succession (coastline. The spring/neap tidal cycle prevents successive extreme sea level events from happening within 4-8 days. Finally, the 2013/14 season was highly unusual in the context of the last 100 years from an extreme sea level perspective.

  2. Recent developments in reassessment of jacket structures under extreme storm cyclic loading. Part 1: Overview

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eide, O.I.; Skallerud, B.H.; Johansen, A. [SINTEF Structures and Concrete, Trondheim (Norway); Amdahl, J. [Norwegian Inst. of Tech., Trondheim (Norway)

    1995-12-31

    An attractive approach to integrity assessment of jacket structures subjected to extreme storm cyclic loading is based on considerations of system strength rather than component strength. The system strength is determined by nonlinear pushover analyses. Nonlinear cyclic analyses are undertaken to determine if the system strength will be degraded due to repeated action of extreme waves. In the present series of papers, conditions for application and extension of such a procedure are addressed. Tubular members with D/t ratio in the range 35--80 were tested under extreme cyclic loading to investigate criteria for onset of local buckling and number of cycles to through thickness cracking. Tubular T-joints were tested under extreme cyclic loading to investigate degradation of cyclic capacity imposed by low cycle fatigue cracking. In part 1 of this series of papers, an overview of the developed methodology for integrity assessment of jacket structures is given. Conditions for application are addressed and illustrated by way of an example study.

  3. Frequency of extreme Sahelian storms tripled since 1982 in satellite observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Christopher M; Belušić, Danijel; Guichard, Françoise; Parker, Douglas J; Vischel, Théo; Bock, Olivier; Harris, Phil P; Janicot, Serge; Klein, Cornelia; Panthou, Gérémy

    2017-04-26

    The hydrological cycle is expected to intensify under global warming, with studies reporting more frequent extreme rain events in many regions of the world, and predicting increases in future flood frequency. Such early, predominantly mid-latitude observations are essential because of shortcomings within climate models in their depiction of convective rainfall. A globally important group of intense storms-mesoscale convective systems (MCSs)-poses a particular challenge, because they organize dynamically on spatial scales that cannot be resolved by conventional climate models. Here, we use 35 years of satellite observations from the West African Sahel to reveal a persistent increase in the frequency of the most intense MCSs. Sahelian storms are some of the most powerful on the planet, and rain gauges in this region have recorded a rise in 'extreme' daily rainfall totals. We find that intense MCS frequency is only weakly related to the multidecadal recovery of Sahel annual rainfall, but is highly correlated with global land temperatures. Analysis of trends across Africa reveals that MCS intensification is limited to a narrow band south of the Sahara desert. During this period, wet-season Sahelian temperatures have not risen, ruling out the possibility that rainfall has intensified in response to locally warmer conditions. On the other hand, the meridional temperature gradient spanning the Sahel has increased in recent decades, consistent with anthropogenic forcing driving enhanced Saharan warming. We argue that Saharan warming intensifies convection within Sahelian MCSs through increased wind shear and changes to the Saharan air layer. The meridional gradient is projected to strengthen throughout the twenty-first century, suggesting that the Sahel will experience particularly marked increases in extreme rain. The remarkably rapid intensification of Sahelian MCSs since the 1980s sheds new light on the response of organized tropical convection to global warming, and

  4. Time Delay Between Dst Index and Magnetic Storm Related Structure in the Solar Wind

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osherovich, Vladimir A.; Fainberg, Joseph

    2015-01-01

    Benson et al. (2015, this volume) selected 10 large magnetic storms, with associated Dst minimum values less than or equal to -100 nT, for which high-latitude topside ionospheric electron density profiles are available from topside-sounder satellites. For these 10 storms, we performed a superposition of Dst and interplanetary parameters B, v, N(sub p) and T(sub p). We have found that two interplanetary parameters, namely B and v, are sufficient to reproduce Dst with correlation coefficient cc approximately 0.96 provided that the interplanetary parameter times are taken 0.15 days earlier than the associated Dst times. Thus we have found which part of the solar wind is responsible for each phase of the magnetic storm. This result is also verified for individual storms as well. The total duration of SRS (storm related structure in the solar wind) is 4 - 5 days which is the same as the associated Dst interval of the magnetic storm.

  5. Study of cosmic ray intensity and geomagnetic storms with solar wind parameters during the period 1998-2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kharayat, Hema; Prasad, Lalan

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to study the effect of solar wind parameters (solar wind speed V, plasma flow pressure, and plasma density) on cosmic ray intensity and on geomagnetic storms for the period 1998-2005 (solar cycle 23). A Chree analysis by the superposed epoch method has been done for the study. From the present study we have found that the solar wind speed is a highly effective parameter in producing cosmic ray intensity decreases and geomagnetic storms. No time lag is found between cosmic ray intensity decreases, geomagnetic storms, and peak value of solar wind speed. Further, we have found that the plasma flow pressure is effectively correlated with geomagnetic storms but it is weakly correlated with cosmic ray intensity. The cosmic ray intensity and geomagnetic storms are found to be weakly correlated with plasma density. The decrease in cosmic ray intensity and geomagnetic storms takes place one day after the peak values of plasma flow pressure and plasma density. There is a time lag of one day between solar wind parameters (plasma flow pressure and plasma density) and cosmic ray intensity decrease, geomagnetic storms. Also, we have found a high correlation of cosmic ray intensity and geomagnetic storms with the product of interplanetary magnetic field B and solar wind speed V i.e. B\\cdot V. This study may be useful in predicting the space-weather phenomena.

  6. Characteristics of storms that contribute to extreme precipitation events over the Iberian Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trigo, Ricardo; Ramos, Alexandre M.; Ordoñez, Paulina; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Trigo, Isabel F.

    2014-05-01

    Floods correspond to one of the most deadly natural disasters in the Iberian Peninsula during the last century. Quite often these floods are associated to intense low pressure systems with an Atlantic origin. In recent years a number of episodes have been evaluated on a case-by-case approach, with a clear focus on extreme events, thus lacking a systematic assessment. In this study we focus on the characteristics of storms for the extended winter season (October to March) that are responsible for the most extreme rainfall events over large areas of the Iberian Peninsula. An objective method for ranking daily precipitation events during the extended winter is used based on the most comprehensive database of high resolution (0.2º latitude by 0.2º longitude) gridded daily precipitation dataset available for the Iberian Peninsula. The magnitude of an event is obtained after considering the total area affected as well as its intensity in every grid point (taking into account the daily normalised departure from climatology). Different precipitation rankings are studied considering the entire Iberian Peninsula, Portugal and also the six largest river basins in the Iberian Peninsula (Duero, Ebro, Tagus, Minho, Guadiana and Guadalquivir). Using an objective cyclone detecting and tracking scheme [Trigo, 2006] the storm track and characteristics of the cyclones were obtained using the ERA-Interim reanalyses for the 1979-2008 period. The spatial distribution of extratropical cyclone positions when the precipitation extremes occur will be analysed over the considered sub-domains (Iberia, Portugal, major river basins). In addition, we distinguish the different cyclone characteristics (lifetime, direction, minimum pressure, position, velocity, vorticity and radius) with significant impacts in precipitation over the different domains in the Iberian Peninsula. This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa

  7. Absolute, Extreme-Ultraviolet, Solar Spectral Irradiance Monitor (AESSIM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huber, Martin C. E.; Smith, Peter L.; Parkinson, W. H.; Kuehne, M.; Kock, M.

    1988-01-01

    AESSIM, the Absolute, Extreme-Ultraviolet, Solar Spectral Irradiance Monitor, is designed to measure the absolute solar spectral irradiance at extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) wavelengths. The data are required for studies of the processes that occur in the earth's upper atmosphere and for predictions of atmospheric drag on space vehicles. AESSIM is comprised of sun-pointed spectrometers and newly-developed, secondary standards of spectral irradiance for the EUV. Use of the in-orbit standard sources will eliminate the uncertainties caused by changes in spectrometer efficiency that have plagued all previous measurements of the solar spectral EUV flux.

  8. Ionospheric response to great geomagnetic storms during solar cycle 23

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merline Matamba, Tshimangadzo; Bosco Habarulema, John

    2016-07-01

    The analyses of ionospheric responses due to great geomagnetic storms i.e. Dst index Total Electron Content (TEC) and ionosonde data over Southern and Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes were used to study the ionospheric responses. A geomagnetic latitude region of ±30° to ±46° within a longitude sector of 15° to 40° was considered. Using a criteria of Dst Physical mechanisms related to (but not limited to) composition changes and electric fields will be discussed.

  9. Geomagnetic storms: historical perspective to modern view

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lakhina, Gurbax S.; Tsurutani, Bruce T.

    2016-12-01

    The history of geomagnetism is more than 400 years old. Geomagnetic storms as we know them were discovered about 210 years ago. There has been keen interest in understanding Sun-Earth connection events, such as solar flares, CMEs, and concomitant magnetic storms in recent times. Magnetic storms are the most important component of space weather effects on Earth. We give an overview of the historical aspects of geomagnetic storms and the progress made during the past two centuries. Super magnetic storms can cause life-threatening power outages and satellite damage, communication failures and navigational problems. The data for such super magnetic storms that occurred in the last 50 years during the space era is sparce. Research on historical geomagnetic storms can help to create a database for intense and super magnetic storms. New knowledge of interplanetary and solar causes of magnetic storms gained from spaceage observations will be used to review the super magnetic storm of September 1-2, 1859. We discuss the occurrence probability of such super magnetic storms, and the maximum possible intensity for the effects of a perfect ICME: extreme super magnetic storm, extreme magnetospheric compression, and extreme magnetospheric electric fields.

  10. The Variability of the Nightside Venusian Ionosphere and its Connection to Solar Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, Candace L.; Peter, Kerstin Susanne; Häusler, Bernd; Pätzold, Martin; Tellmann, Silvia

    2016-10-01

    Observations of ionospheric electron density profiles and auroral emission on the nightside of planetary atmospheres allow for the study between the solar wind and the upper atmosphere of a planet. The interaction between the solar wind and Venus is unique given Venus' thick atmosphere and lack of an intrinsic magnetic field. Here, we study the variability of the Venusian nightside ionosphere and its connection to the solar wind (particularly after solar storms) and observed auroral-type emission of the OI 5577.7 oxygen green line.The Venusian ionosphere has two distinct electron density peaks, the V1 and V2 peaks located near 125 and 150 km, respectively. They are known to be highly variable on the nightside and are even observed to "disappear" during periods of increased solar wind dynamic pressure (Cravens et al. 1982). However, using data from the Electron Spectrometer onboard Venus Express (VEX), Gray et al. 2016 (submitted) have shown an increase in the V1 peak density and a decrease in the V2 peak density during three separate CME passages which also coincided with observed green line emission.Here, we compare electron density profiles collected during solar minimum and maximum from VEX between 2006 – 2009 to determine if the variations observed by Gray et al (2016) are typical of solar storm passages or are due to normal variations in the Venusain nightside. We propose that this behavior is not typical and is due to a combination of increased solar wind dynamic pressure and particle precipitation from solar storms.

  11. Solar wind driving of ionosphere-thermosphere responses during three storms on St. Patrick's Day.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verkhoglyadova, O. P.; Tsurutani, B.; Mannucci, A. J.; Komjathy, A.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Hunt, L. A.; Paxton, L. J.

    2015-12-01

    We overview solar wind features of three intense CME-driven storms occurring around the same time in March of 2012, 2013 and 2015 (74 - 80 DOY). Differences in solar wind drivers lead to different ionosphere-thermosphere (IT) responses in time, magnitude, and to different pre-conditioning. The purpose of our study is to establish a correspondence between interplanetary transient structures (parts of a CME or a high-speed-stream) and dynamics of IT parameters over the course of a geomagnetic storm. Detailed analysis will be presented for the St. Patrick's Day storm of 2015. We introduce global metrics of daytime and dusktime average ionospheric response of VTEC estimates from over ~2000 GPS ground stations distributed globally. Nitric oxide and carbon dioxide cooling radiation fluxes measured by TIMED/SABER instrument are calculated in several latitudinal bins throughout the storm phases. In addition, GUVI observations of the dynamical response of the thermosphere (NO and O/N2) are compared. SSUSI observations of the equatorial ionosphere, particularly the magnitude and separation of the equatorial arcs are considered. In our analysis, metrics are inter-compared to get better understanding of the self-consistent IT response to solar wind driving.

  12. Modeling of the Radiation Belt Dynamics During the Two Largest Geomagnetic Storms of Solar Cycle 24

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Y.; Rastaetter, L.; Kuznetsova, M. M.

    2016-12-01

    In this paper, radiation belt response to the two largest geomagnetic storms of Solar Cycle 24 (17 March 2015 and the 22 June 2015) is investigated in detail. Even though both storms are primarily CME driven, each has its own complexities [Liu et al., 2015, Kataoka et al., 2015]. Using the CCMC's run-on-request system, modeling results using the RBE (Radiation Belt Environment) model within the SWMF (Space Weather Modeling Framework) and the RBE model coupled with the SWMF and RCM (Rice Convection Model, which takes the ring current's contribution into consideration) will be examined. Comparative and comprehensive analyses of the same event from two different models and of two events from the same model/model suite will be provided. Focus will be specially given to impacts of different solar wind drivers on radiation belt dynamics and to the coupling and interactions of different plasma populations/physical processes within the region. Liu, Ying D., H. Hu, R. Wang, Z. Yang, B., Zhu, Y. A., Liu, J. G. Luhmann, J. D. Richardson (2015), Plasma and Magnetic Field Characteristics of Solar Coronal Mass Ejections in Relation to Geomagnetic Storm Intensity and Variability, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, Volume 809, Issue 2, article id. L34, 6 pp. doi:10.1088/2041-8205/809/2/L34. Kataoka, R., D. Shiota, E. Kilpua, and K. Keika (2015), Pileup accident hypothesis of magnetic storm on 17 March 2015, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 5155-5161, doi:10.1002/2015GL064816.

  13. Dynamics of the Solar Wind Electromagnetic Energy Transmission Into Magnetosphere during Large Geomagnetic Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuznetsova, Tamara; Laptukhov, Alexej; Petrov, Valery

    Causes of the geomagnetic activity (GA) in the report are divided into temporal changes of the solar wind parameters and the changes of the geomagnetic moment orientation relative directions of the solar wind electric and magnetic fields. Based on our previous study we concluded that a reconnection based on determining role of mutual orientation of the solar wind electric field and geomagnetic moment taking into account effects of the Earth's orbital and daily motions is the most effective compared with existing mechanisms. At present a reconnection as paradigma that has applications in broad fields of physics needs analysis of experimental facts to be developed. In terms of reconnection it is important not only mutual orientation of vectors describing physics of interaction region but and reconnection rate which depends from rate of energy flux to those regions where the reconnection is permitted. Applied to magnetosphere these regions first of all are dayside magnetopause and polar caps. Influence of rate of the energy flux to the lobe magnetopause (based on calculations of the Poyting electromagnetic flux component controlling the reconnection rate along the solar wind velocity Pv) on planetary GA (Dst, Kp indices) is investigated at different phases of geomagnetic storms. We study also the rate of energy flux to the polar caps during storms (based on calculations of the Poyting flux vector component along the geomagnetic moment Pm) and its influence on magnetic activity in the polar ionosphere: at the auroral zone (AU,AL indices). Results allow to evaluate contributions of high and low latitude sources of electromagnetic energy to the storm development and also to clear mechanism of the electromagnetic energy transmission from the solar wind to the magnetosphere. We evaluate too power of the solar wind electromagnetic energy during well-known large storms and compare result with power of the energy sources of other geophysical processes (atmosphere, ocean

  14. Credible occurrence probabilities for extreme geophysical events: earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, magnetic storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, Jeffrey J.

    2012-01-01

    Statistical analysis is made of rare, extreme geophysical events recorded in historical data -- counting the number of events $k$ with sizes that exceed chosen thresholds during specific durations of time $\\tau$. Under transformations that stabilize data and model-parameter variances, the most likely Poisson-event occurrence rate, $k/\\tau$, applies for frequentist inference and, also, for Bayesian inference with a Jeffreys prior that ensures posterior invariance under changes of variables. Frequentist confidence intervals and Bayesian (Jeffreys) credibility intervals are approximately the same and easy to calculate: $(1/\\tau)[(\\sqrt{k} - z/2)^{2},(\\sqrt{k} + z/2)^{2}]$, where $z$ is a parameter that specifies the width, $z=1$ ($z=2$) corresponding to $1\\sigma$, $68.3\\%$ ($2\\sigma$, $95.4\\%$). If only a few events have been observed, as is usually the case for extreme events, then these "error-bar" intervals might be considered to be relatively wide. From historical records, we estimate most likely long-term occurrence rates, 10-yr occurrence probabilities, and intervals of frequentist confidence and Bayesian credibility for large earthquakes, explosive volcanic eruptions, and magnetic storms.

  15. Astrophysics of "extreme" solar-like stars

    CERN Document Server

    Caballero-Garcia, M D; Claret, A; Gazeas, K; Simon, V; Jelinek, M; Cwiek, A; Zarnecki, A F; Oates, S; Jeong, S; Hudec, R

    2015-01-01

    Only a few red dwarf flaring stars in the solar neighbourhood have undergone exceptional events called superflares. They have been detected with high-energy satellites (i.e. Swift) and have been proven to be powerful events (both in intensity and energy) and potentially hazardous for any extraterrestial life. The physics of these events can be understood as an extrapolation of the (much) weaker activity already occurring in the most powerful solar flares occurring in the Sun. Nevertheless, the origin (why?) these superflares occur is currently unknown. A recent study presents the optical and X-ray long-term evolution of the emission by the super-flare from the red-dwarf star DG CVn undertaken in 2014. In that paper we comment on the context of these observations and on the properties that can be derived through the analysis of them.

  16. Hydrodynamic Based Decision Making Framework for Impact Assessment of Extreme Storm Events on Coastal Communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nazari, R.; Miller, K.; Hurler, C.

    2015-12-01

    Coastal and inland flooding has been a problematic occurrence, specifically over the past century. Global warming has caused an 8 inch sea level rise since 1990, which made the coastal flood zone wider, deeper and more damaging. Additionally, riverine flooding is extremely damaging to the country's substructure and economy as well which causes river banks to overflow, inundating low-lying areas. New Jersey and New York are two areas at severe risk for flood hazard, sea level rise, land depletion and economic loss which are the main study area of this work. A decision making framework is being built to help mitigate the impacts of the environmental and economical dangers of storm surges, sea level rise, flashfloods and inland flooding. With vigorous research and the use of innovative hydrologic modeling software, this tool can be built and utilized to form resiliency for coastal communities. This will allow the individuals living in a coastal community to understand the details of climatic hazards in their area and risks associated to their communities. This tool will also suggest the best solution for the problem each community faces. Atlantic City and New York City has been modeled and compared using potential storm events and the outcomes have been analyzed. The tool offers all the possible solutions for the type of flooding that occurs. Green infrastructure such as rain gardens, detention basins and green roofs can be used as small scale solutions. Greater scale solutions such as removable flood barriers, concrete walls and height adjustable walls will also be displayed if that poses as the best solution. The results and benefits from the simulation and modeling techniques, will allow coastal communities to choose the most appropriate method for building a long lasting and sustainable resilience plan in the future.

  17. Statistical Downscaling of Gusts During Extreme European Winter Storms Using Radial-Basis-Function Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voigt, M.; Lorenz, P.; Kruschke, T.; Osinski, R.; Ulbrich, U.; Leckebusch, G. C.

    2012-04-01

    Winterstorms and related gusts can cause extensive socio-economic damages. Knowledge about the occurrence and the small scale structure of such events may help to make regional estimations of storm losses. For a high spatial and temporal representation, the use of dynamical downscaling methods (RCM) is a cost-intensive and time-consuming option and therefore only applicable for a limited number of events. The current study explores a methodology to provide a statistical downscaling, which offers small scale structured gust fields from an extended large scale structured eventset. Radial-basis-function (RBF) networks in combination with bidirectional Kohonen (BDK) maps are used to generate the gustfields on a spatial resolution of 7 km from the 6-hourly mean sea level pressure field from ECMWF reanalysis data. BDK maps are a kind of neural network which handles supervised classification problems. In this study they are used to provide prototypes for the RBF network and give a first order approximation for the output data. A further interpolation is done by the RBF network. For the training process the 50 most extreme storm events over the North Atlantic area from 1957 to 2011 are used, which have been selected from ECMWF reanalysis datasets ERA40 and ERA-Interim by an objective wind based tracking algorithm. These events were downscaled dynamically by application of the DWD model chain GME → COSMO-EU. Different model parameters and their influence on the quality of the generated high-resolution gustfields are studied. It is shown that the statistical RBF network approach delivers reasonable results in modeling the regional gust fields for untrained events.

  18. COMPARATIVE EVALUATION OF THE INFLUENCING EFFECTS OF GEOMAGNETIC SOLAR STORMS ON EARTHQUAKES IN ANATOLIAN PENINSULA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yesugey Sadik Cengiz

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Earthquakes are tectonic events that take place within the fractures of the earth's crust, namely faults. Above certain scale, earthquakes can result in widespread fatalities and substantial financial loss. In addition to the movement of tectonic plates relative to each other, it is widely discussed that there are other external influences originate outside earth that can trigger earthquakes. These influences are called "triggering effects". The purpose of this article is to present a statistical view to elaborate if the solar geomagnetic storms trigger earthquakes.As a model, the research focuses on the Anatolian peninsula, presenting 41 years of historical data on magnetic storms and earthquakes collated from national and international resources. As a result of the comparative assessment of the data, it is concluded that the geomagnetic storms do not trigger earthquakes.

  19. Extreme storms, sea level rise, and coastal change: implications for infrastructure reliability in the Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anarde, K.; Kameshwar, S.; Irza, N.; Lorenzo-Trueba, J.; Nittrouer, J. A.; Padgett, J.; Bedient, P. B.

    2016-12-01

    Predicting coastal infrastructure reliability during hurricane events is important for risk-based design and disaster planning, such as delineating viable emergency response routes. Previous research has focused on either infrastructure vulnerability to coastal flooding or the impact of changing sea level and landforms on surge dynamics. Here we investigate the combined impact of sea level, morphology, and coastal flooding on the reliability of highway bridges - the only access points between barrier islands and mainland communities - during future extreme storms. We forward model coastal flooding for static projections of geomorphic change using ADCIRC+SWAN. First-order parameters that are adjusted include sea level and elevation. These are varied for each storm simulation to evaluate relative impact on the reliability of bridges surrounding Freeport, TX. Simulated storms include both synthetic and historical events, which are classified by intensity using the storm's integrated kinetic energy, a metric for surge generation potential. Reliability is estimated through probability of failure - given wave and surge loads - and time inundated. Findings include that: 1) bridge reliability scales inversely with surge height, and 2) sea level rise reduces bridge reliability due to a monotonic increase in surge height. The impact of a shifting landscape on bridge reliability is more complex: barrier island rollback can increase or decrease inundation times for storms of different intensity due to changes in wind-setup and back-barrier bay interactions. Initial storm surge readily inundates the coastal landscape during large intensity storms, however the draining of inland bays following storm passage is significantly impeded by the barrier. From a coastal engineering standpoint, we determine that to protect critical infrastructure, efforts now implemented that nourish low-lying barriers may be enhanced by also armoring back-bay coastlines and elevating bridge approach

  20. Analysis of the Solar Diameter Variations at July, 1986 and the Geomagnetic Storm of March, 1989

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humberto Andrei, Alexandre; Garcia, Marcos A.; Papa, Andres R. R.; Calderari Boscardin, Sergio; Lousada Penna, Jucira; Sigismondi, Costantino

    2015-08-01

    In this work, we have a well-known event in scientific literature used to illustrate our investigation on the viability of the solar diameter variation be a precursor for the occurrence of sets of coronal mass ejections, and thus, for geomagnetic storms, as noted in previous works of our group, but now, in a time scale of a few days. The selected event was that of March 13, 1989, a strong geomagnetic storm that made the Hydro-Quebec power grid fall down by 9 hours, damaging the local economy in millions of dollars. At the same time we have investigated a time interval belonging to a solar minimum period, on July 1986, prior to the rising phase and solar maximum of Solar Cycle 22, to compare with the geomagnetic pattern, as well as with the solar diameter behavior along these periods of low solar and geomagnetic activity. We used the time series of the CERGA’s astrolabe (because its dataset is long enough as to comprise both time periods of the analysis), the geomagnetic index AP and the H geomagnetic component from the Tatuoca Magnetic Observatory (because it is near to the geomagnetic equator and with the extra aim of checking the sensitivity of its magnetometers to global events).

  1. Solar pacing of storm surges, coastal flooding and agricultural losses in the Central Mediterranean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaniewski, David; Marriner, Nick; Morhange, Christophe; Faivre, Sanja; Otto, Thierry; Van Campo, Elise

    2016-04-29

    Storm surges, leading to catastrophic coastal flooding, are amongst the most feared natural hazards due to the high population densities and economic importance of littoral areas. Using the Central Mediterranean Sea as a model system, we provide strong evidence for enhanced periods of storminess leading to coastal flooding during the last 4500 years. We show that long-term correlations can be drawn between storminess and solar activity, acting on cycles of around 2200-yr and 230-yr. We also find that phases of increased storms and coastal flooding have impacted upon mid- to late Holocene agricultural activity on the Adriatic coast. Based on the general trend observed during the second half of the 20(th) century, climate models are predicting a weakening of Mediterranean storminess. By contrast, our new data suggest that a decrease in solar activity will increase and intensify the risk of frequent flooding in coastal areas.

  2. Spatial patterns of sediment dynamics within a medium-sized watershed over an extreme storm event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Peng; Zhang, Zhirou

    2016-08-01

    In this study, we quantified spatial patterns of sediment dynamics in a watershed of 311 km2 over an extreme storm event using watershed modeling and statistical analyses. First, we calibrated a watershed model, Dynamic Watershed Simulation Model (DWSM) by comparing the predicted with calculated hydrograph and sedigraph at the outlet for this event. Then we predicted values of event runoff volume (V), peak flow (Qpeak), and two types of event sediment yields for lumped morphological units that contain 42 overland elements and 21 channel segments within the study watershed. Two overland elements and the connected channel segment form a first-order subwatershed, several of which constitute a larger nested subwatershed. Next we examined (i) the relationships between these variables and area (A), precipitation (P), mean slope (S), soil erodibility factor, and percent of crop and pasture lands for all overland elements (i.e., the small spatial scale, SSS), and (ii) those between sediment yield, Qpeak, A, P, and event runoff depth (h) for the first-order and nested subwatersheds along two main creeks of the study watershed (i.e., the larger spatial scales, LSS). We found that at the SSS, sediment yield was nonlinearly well related to A and P, but not Qpeak and h; whereas at the LSS, linear relationships between sediment yield and Qpeak existed, so did the Qpeak-A, and Qpeak-P relationships. This linearity suggests the increased connectivity from the SSS to LSS, which was caused by ignorance of channel processes within overland elements. It also implies that sediment was transported at capacity during the extreme event. So controlling sediment supply from the most erodible overland elements may not efficiently reduce the downstream sediment load.

  3. Frequency of extreme Sahelian storms tripled since 1982 in satellite observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Christopher M.; Belušić, Danijel; Guichard, Françoise; Parker, Douglas J.; Vischel, Théo; Bock, Olivier; Harris, Phil P.; Janicot, Serge; Klein, Cornelia; Panthou, Gérémy

    2017-04-01

    The hydrological cycle is expected to intensify under global warming, with studies reporting more frequent extreme rain events in many regions of the world, and predicting increases in future flood frequency. Such early, predominantly mid-latitude observations are essential because of shortcomings within climate models in their depiction of convective rainfall. A globally important group of intense storms—mesoscale convective systems (MCSs)—poses a particular challenge, because they organize dynamically on spatial scales that cannot be resolved by conventional climate models. Here, we use 35 years of satellite observations from the West African Sahel to reveal a persistent increase in the frequency of the most intense MCSs. Sahelian storms are some of the most powerful on the planet, and rain gauges in this region have recorded a rise in ‘extreme’ daily rainfall totals. We find that intense MCS frequency is only weakly related to the multidecadal recovery of Sahel annual rainfall, but is highly correlated with global land temperatures. Analysis of trends across Africa reveals that MCS intensification is limited to a narrow band south of the Sahara desert. During this period, wet-season Sahelian temperatures have not risen, ruling out the possibility that rainfall has intensified in response to locally warmer conditions. On the other hand, the meridional temperature gradient spanning the Sahel has increased in recent decades, consistent with anthropogenic forcing driving enhanced Saharan warming. We argue that Saharan warming intensifies convection within Sahelian MCSs through increased wind shear and changes to the Saharan air layer. The meridional gradient is projected to strengthen throughout the twenty-first century, suggesting that the Sahel will experience particularly marked increases in extreme rain. The remarkably rapid intensification of Sahelian MCSs since the 1980s sheds new light on the response of organized tropical convection to global warming

  4. Orographic signature on multiscale statistics of extreme rainfall: A storm-scale study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebtehaj, Mohammad; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi

    2010-12-01

    Rainfall intensity and spatiotemporal patterns often show a strong dependence on the underlying terrain. The main objective of this work is to study the statistical signature imprinted by orography on the spatial structure of rainfall and its temporal evolution at multiple scales, with the aim of developing a consistent theoretical basis for conditional downscaling of precipitation given the topographic information of the underlying terrain. The results of an extensive analysis of the high-resolution stage II Doppler radar data of the Rapidan storm, June 1995, over the Appalachian Mountains is reported in this study. The orographic signature on the elementary statistical structure of the precipitation fields is studied via a variable-intensity thresholding scheme. This signature is further explored at multiple scales via analysis of the dependence of precipitation fields on the underlying terrain both in Fourier and wavelet domains. The generalized normal distribution is found to be a suitable probability model to explain the variability of the rainfall wavelet coefficients and its dependence on the underlying elevations. These results provide a new perspective for more accurate statistical downscaling of orographic precipitation over complex terrain with emphasis on preservation of extremes.

  5. Assessing the short-term effects of an extreme storm on Mediterranean forest raptors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez, José E.; Jiménez-Franco, María V.; Zuberogoitia, Iñigo; León-Ortega, Mario; Calvo, José F.

    2013-04-01

    Different species show different responses to natural disturbances, depending on their capacity to exploit the altered environment and occupy new niches. In the case of semi-arid Mediterranean areas, there is no information available on the response of bird communities to disturbance caused by extreme weather events. Here, we evaluate the short-term effects of a heavy snowfall and strong winds on three long-lived species of forest-dwelling raptor in a semi-arid Mediterranean region situated in the south-east of Spain. The loss of nests was significantly higher in the first and second years following the disturbance than in the third year. The three species studied exhibited great tolerance to the short-term effects of the storm since we found no differences in density or reproductive parameters between the nine breeding seasons prior to the disturbance and the three which immediately followed it. We suggest that the tolerance shown by these three species to windstorms in semi-arid Mediterranean zones could be an adaptive response, resulting from the climatic and human pressures which have prevailed from the Bronze Age to the present day.

  6. An Investigation of Geomagnetic Storms and Associated Cosmic Ray Intensity During Recent Solar Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaushik, Sonia

    2016-07-01

    Shocks driven by energetic coronal mass ejections (CME's) and other interplanetary (IP) transients are mainly responsible for initiating large and intense geomagnetic storms. Observational results indicate that galactic cosmic rays (CR) coming from deep surface interact with these abnormal solar and IP conditions and suffer modulation effects. The current solar cycle has provided a long list of these highly energetic events influencing the Earth's geomagnetic field up to a great extent. We have selected such intense geo-effective CME's occurred during recent solar cycle and studied their possible influence on cosmic ray intensity as well as on Earth' s geomagnetic field using the hourly values of IMF data obtained from the NSSD Center. Solar wind data obtained from various satellites are used in the studies which are available during the selected events period. The super neutron monitor data obtained from Kiel, Oulu and Huancayo stations, well distributed over different latitudes has been used in the present study. It is found that AP and AE indices show rise before the forward turnings of IMF and both the Dst index and cosmic ray intensity show a classic decrease. The analysis further indicates the significant role of the magnitudes of Bz component of IMF substantiating the earlier results. It is further inferred that the magnitude of these responses depends on BZ component of IMF being well correlated with solar maximum and minimum periods. Transient decrease in cosmic ray intensity with slow recovery is observed during the storm phase duration.

  7. Large Storm Energy Deposition and Solar Wind Drivers: A Study of Geoeffectiveness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, N. E.; Lopez, R. E.

    2004-12-01

    We examine the role of solar wind driving conditions in the deposition of large amounts of energy in the magnetosphere-ionosphere system. Our database consists of eight storms ranging in size, including especially the October and November 2003 superstorms. We estimate energy deposition into the ring current, ionospheric Joule heating, and auroral precipitation for each event and compare with relevant solar wind data. Results suggest that the magnetosonic Mach number of the solar wind may be a useful parameter in identifying the potential for large amounts of energy deposition, possibly because of the role of the bow shock in modulating the magnetosheath field, and therefore its influence of reconnection rates. We use Dst, ionospheric indices, and MHD simulation results where available to investigate the magnetospheric response to different types of solar wind energy input. Our results are examined with a focus on superstorms and the driving conditions observed in connection with them.

  8. Litter Production and Nutrient Dynamic on a Moso Bamboo Plantation following an Extreme Disturbance of 2008 Ice Storm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaogai Ge

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Ice storm is known to play a role in determining forest succession and litter dynamics constitute an important aspect of nutrient cycling in forest ecosystems. However, ice storm effects on amount and pattern of litterfall are not clearly understood. We investigated litter production and litter leaf nutrient dynamic in a moso bamboo plantation in China following an extreme disturbance of ice storm in 2008. The litterfall in on-years was significantly lower than in off-years. Ice storm caused total litterfall increasing from 16.68% to 35.60% and greatly disturbed the litterfall peak rhythm especially in the on-year. The litter leaf nutrient concentrations at two latitudes significantly fluctuated after ice-snow disaster in 2008, litter leaf stoichiometric traits indicated that litter leaf chemistry showed more easily decomposition with higher C/P ratio, N/P ratio, and lower C/N ratio. It is clear from this study that litterfall restoration dynamic would result in long-term changes in litter nutrient cycling and may help predicting below ground carbon dynamic in future research as well as subtropical forest inventories following extreme disturbance.

  9. Estimating the frequency of extremely energetic solar events, based on solar, stellar, lunar, and terrestrial records

    CERN Document Server

    Schrijver, C J; Baltensperger, U; Cliver, E W; Guedel, M; Hudson, H S; McCracken, K G; Osten, R A; Peter, Th; Soderblom, D R; Usoskin, I G; Wolff, E W

    2012-01-01

    The most powerful explosions on the Sun [...] drive the most severe space-weather storms. Proxy records of flare energies based on SEPs in principle may offer the longest time base to study infrequent large events. We conclude that one suggested proxy, nitrate concentrations in polar ice cores, does not map reliably to SEP events. Concentrations of select radionuclides measured in natural archives may prove useful in extending the time interval of direct observations up to ten millennia, but as their calibration to solar flare fluences depends on multiple poorly known properties and processes, these proxies cannot presently be used to help determine the flare energy frequency distribution. Being thus limited to the use of direct flare observations, we evaluate the probabilities of large-energy solar explosions by combining solar flare observations with an ensemble of stellar flare observations. We conclude that solar flare energies form a relatively smooth distribution from small events to large flares, while...

  10. Coastal flooding: impact of waves on storm surge during extremes - a case study for the German Bight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staneva, Joanna; Wahle, Kathrin; Koch, Wolfgang; Behrens, Arno; Fenoglio-Marc, Luciana; Stanev, Emil V.

    2016-11-01

    This study addresses the impact of wind, waves, tidal forcing and baroclinicity on the sea level of the German Bight during extreme storm events. The role of wave-induced processes, tides and baroclinicity is quantified, and the results are compared with in situ measurements and satellite data. A coupled high-resolution modelling system is used to simulate wind waves, the water level and the three-dimensional hydrodynamics. The models used are the wave model WAM and the circulation model GETM. The two-way coupling is performed via the OASIS3-MCT coupler. The effects of wind waves on sea level variability are studied, accounting for wave-dependent stress, wave-breaking parameterization and wave-induced effects on vertical mixing. The analyses of the coupled model results reveal a closer match with observations than for the stand-alone circulation model, especially during the extreme storm Xaver in December 2013. The predicted surge of the coupled model is significantly enhanced during extreme storm events when considering wave-current interaction processes. This wave-dependent approach yields a contribution of more than 30 % in some coastal areas during extreme storm events. The contribution of a fully three-dimensional model compared with a two-dimensional barotropic model showed up to 20 % differences in the water level of the coastal areas of the German Bight during Xaver. The improved skill resulting from the new developments justifies further use of the coupled-wave and three-dimensional circulation models in coastal flooding predictions.

  11. An ensemble study of extreme storm surge related water levels in the North Sea in a changing climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Sterl

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The height of storm surges is extremely important for a low-lying country like The Netherlands. By law, part of the coastal defence system has to withstand a water level that on average occurs only once every 10 000 years. The question then arises whether and how climate change affects the heights of extreme storm surges. Published research points to only small changes. However, due to the limited amount of data available results are usually limited to relatively frequent extremes like the annual 99%-ile. We here report on results from a 17-member ensemble of North Sea water levels spaning the period 1950–2100. It was created by forcing a surge model of the North Sea with meteorological output from a state-of-the-art global climate model which has been driven by greenhouse gas emissions following the SRES A1b scenario. The large ensemble size enables us to calculate 10 000 year return water levels with a low statistical uncertainty. In the one model used in this study, we find no statistically significant change in the 10 000 year return values of surge heights along the Dutch during the 21st century. Also a higher sea level resulting from global warming does not impact the height of the storm surges. As a side effect of our simulations we also obtain results on the interplay between surge and tide.

  12. Solar and auroral evidence for an intense recurrent geomagnetic storm during December in AD 1128

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Willis, D.M. [Warwick Univ., Coventry (United Kingdom). Dept. of Physics; Stephenson, F.R. [Durham Univ. (United Kingdom). Dept. of Physics

    2001-03-01

    The earliest known drawing of sunspots appears in The Chronicle of John of Worcester, which was compiled in the first half of the twelfth century. In this medieval chronicle, the Latin text describing the sunspots is accompanied by a colourful drawing, albeit idealised, which shows the apparent positions and sizes of two sunspots on the solar disk. The date of this observation of sunspots from Worcester, England is firmly established as AD 1128 December 8. Assuming that the drawing was prepared fairly carefully, the angular diameters of the two sunspots are at least about 3 arcmin and 2 arcmin in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. Similarly, the heliographic latitudes of both sunspots are within the approximate range of 25 -35 . About five days after this observation of sunspots on the solar disk, on the night of AD 1128 December 13, a red auroral display was observed from Songdo, Korea (the modern city of Kaesong). This auroral observation was recorded in the Koryo-sa, the official Korean chronicle of the period. In addition, five Chinese and five Korean descriptions of auroral displays were recorded in various East-Asian histories between the middle of AD 1127 and the middle of AD 1129. The ten oriental auroral records in this particular interval correspond to six distinct auroral events, which provide evidence for recurrent, though possibly intermittent, auroral activity on a timescale almost exactly equal to the synodic-solar-rotation period (approximately 27 days). The six distinct auroral events were apparently associated with two series of recurrent geomagnetic storms, both of which were sufficiently intense to produce mid-latitude auroral displays in East Asia. These ancient solar and auroral observations are interpreted in terms of present-day understanding of solar-terrestrial physics. Contemporary ground-based and satellite measurements during the last few decades have indicated that recurrent geomagnetic storms are usually a feature of

  13. Tree species traits but not diversity mitigate stem breakage in a subtropical forest following a rare and extreme ice storm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadrowski, Karin; Pietsch, Katherina; Baruffol, Martin; Both, Sabine; Gutknecht, Jessica; Bruelheide, Helge; Heklau, Heike; Kahl, Anja; Kahl, Tiemo; Niklaus, Pascal; Kröber, Wenzel; Liu, Xiaojuan; Mi, Xiangcheng; Michalski, Stefan; von Oheimb, Goddert; Purschke, Oliver; Schmid, Bernhard; Fang, Teng; Welk, Erik; Wirth, Christian

    2014-01-01

    Future climates are likely to include extreme events, which in turn have great impacts on ecological systems. In this study, we investigated possible effects that could mitigate stem breakage caused by a rare and extreme ice storm in a Chinese subtropical forest across a gradient of forest diversity. We used Bayesian modeling to correct stem breakage for tree size and variance components analysis to quantify the influence of taxon, leaf and wood functional traits, and stand level properties on the probability of stem breakage. We show that the taxon explained four times more variance in individual stem breakage than did stand level properties; trees with higher specific leaf area (SLA) were less susceptible to breakage. However, a large part of the variation at the taxon scale remained unexplained, implying that unmeasured or undefined traits could be used to predict damage caused by ice storms. When aggregated at the plot level, functional diversity and wood density increased after the ice storm. We suggest that for the adaption of forest management to climate change, much can still be learned from looking at functional traits at the taxon level.

  14. Solar Orbiter- Solar Array- Thermal Design for an Extreme Temperature Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muller, Jens; Paarmann, Carola; Lindner, Anton; Kreutz, Martin; Oberhuttinger, Carola; Costello, Ian; Icardi, Lidia

    2014-08-01

    The Solar Orbiter mission is an interdisciplinary mission to the sun, carried out by ESA in collaboration with NASA. The spacecraft will approach the sun close to 0.28 AU. At this distance, the solar array has to be operated under high solar array inclination angles to limit the temperatures to a maximum qualification temperature of 200°C for the photo voltaic assembly (PVA). Nevertheless, extreme temperatures appear at specific locations of the solar array which require purpose-built temperature protection measures. A very specific thermal protection is needed to keep the PVA and its supporting structures within the qualified temperature range and simultaneously minimize the thermal flux into the spacecraft.This paper describes the Solar Orbiter solar array design in general and its specific thermal design in particular. It describes the interdisciplinary steps between thermal- and mechanical analysis as well as design engineering necessary to result to the different shielding methods.

  15. Storms or cold fronts? What is really responsible for the extreme waves regime in the Colombian Caribbean coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otero, L. J.; Ortiz-Royero, J. C.; Ruiz-Merchan, J. K.; Higgins, A. E.; Henriquez, S. A.

    2015-05-01

    On Friday, 7 March 2009, a 200 m-long section of the tourist pier in Puerto Colombia collapsed under the impact of the waves generated by a cold front in the area. The aim of this study is to determine the contribution and importance of cold fronts and storms on extreme waves in different areas of the Colombian Caribbean to determine the degree of the threat posed by the flood processes to which these coastal populations are exposed and the actions to which coastal engineering constructions should be subject. In the calculation of maritime constructions, the most important parameter is the wave's height; therefore, it is necessary to definitively know the design wave height to which a coastal engineering structure should be resistant. This wave height varies according to the return period considered. Using Gumbel's extreme value methodology, the significant height values for the study area were calculated. The methodology was evaluated using data from the re-analysis of the spectral NOAA Wavewatch III (WW3) model for 15 points along the 1600 km of the Colombia Caribbean coast (continental and insular) of the last 15 years. The results demonstrated that the extreme waves caused by tropical cyclones and cold fronts have different effects along the Colombian Caribbean coast. Storms and hurricanes are of greater importance in the Guajira Peninsula (Alta Guajira). In the central area formed by Baja Guajira, Santa Marta, Barranquilla, and Cartagena, the strong influence of cold fronts on extreme waves is evident. On the other hand, in the southern region of the Colombian Caribbean coast, from the Gulf of Morrosquillo to the Gulf of Urabá, even though extreme waves are lower than in the previous regions, extreme waves are dominated mainly by the passage of cold fronts. Extreme waves in the San Andrés and Providencia insular region present a different dynamic from that in the continental area due to its geographic location. The wave heights in the extreme regime are

  16. Storms or cold fronts? What is really responsible for the extreme waves regime in the Colombian Caribbean coast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. J. Otero

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available On Friday, 7 March 2009, a 200 m-long section of the tourist pier in Puerto Colombia collapsed under the impact of the waves generated by a cold front in the area. The aim of this study is to determine the contribution and importance of cold fronts and storms on extreme waves in different areas of the Colombian Caribbean to determine the degree of the threat posed by the flood processes to which these coastal populations are exposed and the actions to which coastal engineering constructions should be subject. In the calculation of maritime constructions, the most important parameter is the wave's height; therefore, it is necessary to definitively know the design wave height to which a coastal engineering structure should be resistant. This wave height varies according to the return period considered. Using Gumbel's extreme value methodology, the significant height values for the study area were calculated. The methodology was evaluated using data from the re-analysis of the spectral NOAA Wavewatch III (WW3 model for 15 points along the 1600 km of the Colombia Caribbean coast (continental and insular of the last 15 years. The results demonstrated that the extreme waves caused by tropical cyclones and cold fronts have different effects along the Colombian Caribbean coast. Storms and hurricanes are of greater importance in the Guajira Peninsula (Alta Guajira. In the central area formed by Baja Guajira, Santa Marta, Barranquilla, and Cartagena, the strong influence of cold fronts on extreme waves is evident. On the other hand, in the southern region of the Colombian Caribbean coast, from the Gulf of Morrosquillo to the Gulf of Urabá, even though extreme waves are lower than in the previous regions, extreme waves are dominated mainly by the passage of cold fronts. Extreme waves in the San Andrés and Providencia insular region present a different dynamic from that in the continental area due to its geographic location. The wave heights in the

  17. Signatures of cosmic-ray increase attributed to exceptional solar storms inferred from multiple cosmogenic radionuclide records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mekhaldi, Florian; Muscheler, Raimund; Adolphi, Florian; Svensson, Anders; Aldahan, Ala; Possnert, Göran; McConnell, Joseph R.; Sigl, Michael; Welten, Kees C.; Woodruff, Thomas E.

    2014-05-01

    Miyake et al. (2012, 2013) discovered rapid increases of 14C content in tree rings dated to AD 774-5 and AD 993-4 which they have attributed to cosmic-ray events. These extreme particle events have no counterparts in the instrumental record and have been tentatively associated with solar proton events, supernovae and short gamma-ray bursts, which have very different energy spectra. Cosmogenic radionuclides such as 14C, 10Be and 36Cl arise from the interaction of cosmic rays with atmospheric nitrogen, oxygen and argon. These radio-isotopes are produced through different reaction pathways and vary with different energy dependencies of the production rate cross section. Owing to this, yield functions can be used to determine the energy level of incident particles. However, only 14C has been measured at high resolution to quantify the energy and thus the origin of the outbursts. We present an annually resolved record of 10Be from the NGRIP ice core for the two events. In addition, we also utilized the GRIP ice core 36Cl record in our analysis. Our results show that the differential production of cosmogenic 14C, 10Be and 36Cl is consistent with a solar energy spectrum. Considering the notable increase in radionuclides, the solar storms would have had to be substantially greater than the largest recorded geomagnetic storm, the so-called Carrington event. This challenges our understanding of the sun's dynamics. Furthermore, the events could possibly be of interest for the investigation of potential cosmic ray-cloud linkages (Svensmark & Friis-Christensen, 1997). Alternatively, such outbursts of energetic particles have the potential to deplete atmospheric ozone and alter atmospheric circulation. Ultimately, the magnitude of such particle events draws attention to the perhaps underestimated potential of the sun to cause great damage to modern technologies. References Miyake, F., Masuda, K. & Nakamura, T. Another rapid event in the carbon-14 content of tree rings. Nature

  18. Demographic effects of extreme weather events: snow storms, breeding success, and population growth rate in a long-lived Antarctic seabird.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Descamps, Sébastien; Tarroux, Arnaud; Varpe, Øystein; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Tveraa, Torkild; Lorentsen, Svein-Håkon

    2015-01-01

    Weather extremes are one important element of ongoing climate change, but their impacts are poorly understood because they are, by definition, rare events. If the frequency and severity of extreme weather events increase, there is an urgent need to understand and predict the ecological consequences of such events. In this study, we aimed to quantify the effects of snow storms on nest survival in Antarctic petrels and assess whether snow storms are an important driver of annual breeding success and population growth rate. We used detailed data on daily individual nest survival in a year with frequent and heavy snow storms, and long term data on petrel productivity (i.e., number of chicks produced) at the colony level. Our results indicated that snow storms are an important determinant of nest survival and overall productivity. Snow storm events explained 30% of the daily nest survival within the 2011/2012 season and nearly 30% of the interannual variation in colony productivity in period 1985-2014. Snow storms are a key driver of Antarctic petrel breeding success, and potentially population dynamics. We also found state-dependent effects of snow storms and chicks in poor condition were more likely to die during a snow storm than chicks in good condition. This stresses the importance of considering interactions between individual heterogeneity and extreme weather events to understand both individual and population responses to climate change.

  19. The presence of large sunspots near the central solar meridian at the times of major geomagnetic storms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. M. Willis

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available A further study is made of the validity of a technique developed by the authors to identify historical occurrences of intense geomagnetic storms, which is based on finding approximately coincident observations of sunspots and aurorae recorded in East Asian histories. Previously, the validity of this technique was corroborated using scientific observations of aurorae in Japan during the interval 1957–2004 and contemporaneous white-light images of the Sun obtained by the Royal Greenwich Observatory, the Big Bear Solar Observatory, the Debrecen Heliophysical Observatory, and the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory spacecraft. The present investigation utilises a list of major geomagnetic storms in the interval 1868–2008, which is based on the magnitude of the AA* magnetic index, and reconstructed solar images based on the sunspot observations acquired by the Royal Greenwich Observatory during the shorter interval 1874–1976. It is found that a sunspot large enough to be seen with the unaided eye by an "experienced" observer was located reasonably close to the central solar meridian for almost 90% of these major geomagnetic storms. Even an "average" observer would easily achieve a corresponding success rate of 70% and this success rate increases to about 80% if a minority of ambiguous situations are interpreted favourably. The use of information on major geomagnetic storms, rather than modern auroral observations from Japan, provides a less direct corroboration of the technique for identifying historical occurrences of intense geomagnetic storms, if only because major geomagnetic storms do not necessarily produce auroral displays over East Asia. Nevertheless, the present study provides further corroboration of the validity of the original technique for identifying intense geomagnetic storms. This additional corroboration of the original technique is important because early unaided-eye observations of sunspots and aurorae provide the only

  20. Extreme storms during the last 6500 years from lagoonal sedimentary archives in the Mar Menor (SE Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezileau, Laurent; Pérez-Ruzafa, Angel; Blanchemanche, Philippe; Degeai, Jean-Philippe; Raji, Otmane; Martinez, Philippe; Marcos, Concepcion; Von Grafenstein, Ulrich

    2016-06-01

    Storms and tsunamis, which may seriously endanger human society, are amongst the most devastating marine catastrophes that can occur in coastal areas. Many such events are known and have been reported for the Mediterranean, a region where high-frequency occurrences of these extreme events coincides with some of the most densely populated coastal areas in the world. In a sediment core from the Mar Menor (SE Spain), we discovered eight coarse-grained layers which document marine incursions during periods of intense storm activity or tsunami events. Based on radiocarbon dating, these extreme events occurred around 5250, 4000, 3600, 3010, 2300, 1350, 650, and 80 years cal BP. No comparable events have been observed during the 20th and 21st centuries. The results indicate little likelihood of a tsunami origin for these coarse-grained layers, although historical tsunami events are recorded in this region. These periods of surge events seem to coincide with the coldest periods in Europe during the late Holocene, suggesting a control by a climatic mechanism for periods of increased storm activity. Spectral analyses performed on the sand percentage revealed four major periodicities of 1228 ± 327, 732 ± 80, 562 ± 58, and 319 ± 16 years. Amongst the well-known proxies that have revealed a millennial-scale climate variability during the Holocene, the ice-rafted debris (IRD) indices in the North Atlantic developed by Bond et al. (1997, 2001) present a cyclicity of 1470 ± 500 years, which matches the 1228 ± 327-year periodicity evidenced in the Mar Menor, considering the respective uncertainties in the periodicities. Thus, an in-phase storm activity in the western Mediterranean is found with the coldest periods in Europe and with the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation. However, further investigations, such as additional coring and high-resolution coastal imagery, are needed to better constrain the main cause of these multiple events.

  1. Does generation of magnetic storm depend on type of solar wind?

    CERN Document Server

    Nikolaeva, N S; Lodkina, I G

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this work is to draw attention of readers to a problem of possible differences in generation of magnetic storms induced by various large scale solar wind (SW) streams: CIR, Sheath and ICME (including MC and Ejecta). Recently we showed that when using a modification of formula by Burton et al. [1975] for connection of interplanetary conditions with Dst and Dst* indices the efficiency of storm generation by Sheath and CIR is about 50 percent higher than generation by ICME [Nikolaeva et al., 2013, 2015]. In the literature there are many various functions coupling (FC) various interplanetary parameters with magnetospheric state. In this work we study the efficiency of main phase storm generation by different SW streams when using 12 another FCs on the basis of OMNI data during 1976 ... 2000. Obtained results show that for most part of FCs Sheaths have the highest efficiency and MCs have the lowest efficiency in accordance with our previous results. The reliability of the obtained data and possible ...

  2. Introduction to the special issue on history development of solar terrestrial sciences including auroral sub-storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balan, N.; Parks, G.; Svalgaard, L.; Kamide, Y.; Lui, T.

    2016-12-01

    Solar terrestrial (ST) sciences started centuries ago and branched into different disciplines. Starting with naked eye to highly sophisticated novel experimental techniques, observations have revealed the secrets of the Sun, heliosphere, magnetosphere, plasmasphere, and ionosphere-atmosphere components of the ST system. Theories and theoretical models have been developed for the different components independently and together. World-wide efforts under different umbrella are being persuaded to understand the challenges of the ST system. The onset problem and role of O+ ions in sub-storm physics are two issues that are hotly debated. The onset problem is whether sub-storm is triggered by magnetic reconnection in the tail region at 15-20 Re or by a current disruption at ~12 Re. The issue on O+ role is whether O+ ions affect the dynamics of sub-storms under magnetic storm and non-storm conditions differently. This special issue of Geoscience Letters contains a collection of 15 papers on the history and development of solar terrestrial sciences including auroral sub-storms. Over half of the papers are based on the presentations in a session on the same topic organized at the AOGS (Asia Oceania geosciences Society) General Assembly held in Singapore during 02-07 August 2015. The rest of the papers from outside the assembly also falls within the theme of the special issue. The papers are organized in the order of history and development of ST coupling, sub-storms, and outer heliosphere.

  3. NOAA Satellites Provide a Keen View of the Martin Luther King Solar Storm of January 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkinson, D. C.; Allen, J. H.

    2005-05-01

    Solar active region 0720 rotated onto the east limb on January 10th and put on a pyrotechnic display uncharacteristic for this phase of the solar cycle before disappearing beyond the west limb on January 23rd. On January 15th this region released the first of five X-class solar flares. The last of those flares, January 20th, was associated with an extraordinary ion storm whose effect reached Earth's surface. This paper highlights the record of this event made by NOAA's GOES satellites via their Space Environment Monitor (SEM) subsystems that measures X-ray, energetic particles, and the magnetic field vector at the satellite. Displays of those data are supplemented by neutron monitor data to illustrate their relationship to the January 20th Ground Level Event. GOES-12 is also equipped with the Solar X-ray Imager (SXI) that produces an image of the Sun in X-ray wavelengths once per minute. Movies created from those data perfectly illustrate the cause-and-effect relationship between intense solar activity and satellite disruptions. The flares on January 17th and 20th are closely followed by noise in the SXI telescope resulting from energetic ions penetrating SXI. Ions with sufficient velocity and atomic number can penetrate satellite components and deposit charge along their path. Sufficient charge deposition can introduce erroneous information into solid-state devices. A survey of satellites that experienced problems of this type during this event will also be presented.

  4. Influence of Closing Storm Surge Barrier on Extreme Water Levels and Water Exchange; The Limfjord, Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørgaard, Jørgen Quvang Harck; Bentzen, Thomas Ruby; Larsen, Torben;

    2014-01-01

    of the fjord. The reduction is obtained by blocking the ingoing flow with a sluice in due time before the storm surge peaks in the North Sea. In order to avoid problems with reduced water quality and salinity, the water exchange should be controlled by only keeping the sluice open for ingoing currents...... the increased risk of flooding in the estuary has revitalized the discussion whether this connection should be closed. In this paper, it is shown by numerical simulation that the establishment of a storm surge barrier across Thyborøn Channel can significantly reduce the peak water levels in the central...

  5. A study of solar and interplanetary parameters of CMEs causing major geomagnetic storms during SC 23

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Oprea

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we analyse 25 Earth-directed and strongly geoeffective interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs which occurred during solar cycle 23, using data provided by instruments on SOHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, ACE (Advanced Composition Explorer and geomagnetic stations. We also examine the in situ parameters, the energy transfer into magnetosphere, and the geomagnetic indexes. We compare observed travel times with those calculated by observed speeds projected into the plane of the sky and de-projected by a simple model. The best fit was found with the projected speeds. No correlation was found between the importance of a flare and the geomagnetic Dst (disturbance storm time index. By comparing the in situ parameters with the Dst index we find a strong connection between some of these parameters (such as Bz, Bs · V and the energy transfer into the magnetosphere with the strength of the geomagnetic storm. No correlation was found with proton density and plasma temperature. A superposed epoch analysis revealed a strong dependence of the Dst index on the southward component of interplanetary magnetic field, Bz, and to the Akasofu coupling function, which evaluates the energy transfer between the ICME and the magnetosphere. The analysis also showed that the geomagnetic field at higher latitudes is disturbed before the field around the Earth's equator.

  6. Signals at ground level of relativistic solar particles associated with a radiation storm on 2014 April 18

    Science.gov (United States)

    Augusto, Carlos; Navia, Carlos; de Oliveira, Marcel N.; Fauth, Anderson; Nepomuceno, André

    2016-02-01

    Active region NOAA AR2036, located at S20W34 at the Sun disk, produced a moderately strong (GOES class M7.3) flare on 2014 April 18. The flare itself was long in duration, and a halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was emitted. In addition, a radiation storm, that is, solar energetic particles (SEP), began to reach the Earth at 13:30 UT in the aftermath of the solar blast, meeting the condition of an S1 (minor) radiation storm level. In temporal coincidence with the onset of the S1 radiation storm, the Tupi telescopes located within the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) detected a fast rise in the muon counting rate, caused by relativistic protons from this solar blast, with a confidence of up to 3.5% at peak. At the time of the solar blast, of all ground-based detectors, the Tupi telescopes had the best geoeffective location. Indeed, in association with the radiation storm, a gradual increase in the particle intensity was found in some neutron monitors (NMs), all of them in the west region relative to the Sun-Earth line, yet within the geoeffective region. However, their confidence levels are smaller: up to 3%. The fast rising observed at Tupi suggests possible detection of solar particles emitted during the impulsive phase, following by a gradual phase observed also at NMs. Details of these observations, including the expected energy spectrum, are reported.

  7. Solar wind-magnetosphere coupling efficiency during ejecta and sheath-driven geomagnetic storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myllys, M.; Kilpua, E. K. J.; Lavraud, B.; Pulkkinen, T. I.

    2016-05-01

    We have investigated the effect of key solar wind driving parameters on solar wind-magnetosphere coupling efficiency during sheath and magnetic cloud-driven storms. The particular focus of the study was on the coupling efficiency dependence with Alfvén Mach number (MA). The efficiency has been estimated using the dawn-dusk component of the interplanetary electric field (EY), Newell and Borovsky functions as a proxy for the energy inflow and the polar cap potential (PCN), and auroral electrojet (AE) and SYM-H indices as the measure of the energy output. We have also performed a time delay analysis between the input parameters and the geomagnetic indices. The optimal time lag and smoothing window length depend on the coupling function used and on the solar wind driver. For example, turbulent sheaths are more sensitive to the time shift and the averaging interval than smoother magnetic clouds. The results presented in this study show that the solar wind-magnetosphere coupling efficiency depends strongly on the definition used, and it increases with increasing MA. We demonstrate that the PCN index distinctively shows both a Mach number dependent saturation and a Mach number independent saturation, pointing to the existence of at least two underlying physical mechanisms for the saturation of the index. By contrast, we show that the AE index saturates but that the saturation of this index is independent of the solar wind Mach number. Finally, we find that the SYM-H index does not seem to saturate and that the absence of saturation is independent of the Mach number regime. We highlight the difference between the typical MA conditions during sheath regions and magnetic clouds. The lowest MA values are related to the magnetic clouds. As a consequence, sheaths typically have higher solar wind-magnetosphere coupling efficiencies than magnetic clouds.

  8. Reconstruction of Solar Extreme Ultraviolet Flux 1740 - 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svalgaard, Leif

    2016-11-01

    Solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiation creates the conducting E-layer of the ionosphere, mainly by photo-ionization of molecular oxygen. Solar heating of the ionosphere creates thermal winds, which by dynamo action induce an electric field driving an electric current having a magnetic effect observable on the ground, as was discovered by G. Graham in 1722. The current rises and falls with the Sun, and thus causes a readily observable diurnal variation of the geomagnetic field, allowing us to deduce the conductivity and thus the EUV flux as far back as reliable magnetic data reach. High-quality data go back to the "Magnetic Crusade" of the 1830s and less reliable, but still usable, data are available for portions of the 100 years before that. J.R. Wolf and, independently, J.-A. Gautier discovered the dependence of the diurnal variation on solar activity, and today we understand and can invert that relationship to construct a reliable record of the EUV flux from the geomagnetic record. We compare that to the F_{10.7} flux and the sunspot number, and we find that the reconstructed EUV flux reproduces the F_{10.7} flux with great accuracy. On the other hand, it appears that the Relative Sunspot Number as currently defined is beginning to no longer be a faithful representation of solar magnetic activity, at least as measured by the EUV and related indices. The reconstruction suggests that the EUV flux reaches the same low (but non-zero) value at every sunspot minimum (possibly including Grand Minima), representing an invariant "solar magnetic ground state".

  9. Storms or cold fronts: what is really responsible for the extreme waves regime in the Colombian Caribbean coastal region?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otero, L. J.; Ortiz-Royero, J. C.; Ruiz-Merchan, J. K.; Higgins, A. E.; Henriquez, S. A.

    2016-02-01

    The aim of this study is to determine the contribution and importance of cold fronts and storms to extreme waves in different areas of the Colombian Caribbean in an attempt to determine the extent of the threat posed by the flood processes to which these coastal populations are exposed. Furthermore, the study wishes to establish the actions to which coastal engineering constructions should be subject. In the calculation of maritime constructions, the most important parameter is the height of the wave. For this reason, it is necessary to establish the design wave height to which a coastal engineering structure should be resistant. This wave height varies according to the return period considered. The significant height values for the areas focused on in the study were calculated in accordance with Gumbel's extreme value methodology. The methodology was evaluated using data from the reanalysis of the spectral National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) WAVEWATCH III® (WW3) model for 15 points along the 1600 km of the Colombian Caribbean coastline (continental and insular) between the years 1979 and 2009. The results demonstrated that the extreme waves caused by tropical cyclones and those caused by cold fronts have different effects along the Colombian Caribbean coast. Storms and hurricanes are of greater importance in the Guajira Peninsula (Alta Guajira). In the central area (consisting of Baja Guajira, and the cities of Santa Marta, Barranquilla, and Cartagena), the strong impact of cold fronts on extreme waves is evident. However, in the southern region of the Colombian Caribbean coast (ranging from the Gulf of Morrosquillo to the Gulf of Urabá), the extreme values of wave heights are lower than in the previously mentioned regions, despite being dominated mainly by the passage of cold fronts. Extreme waves in the San Andrés and Providencia insular region present a different dynamic from that in the continental area due to their geographic location

  10. Effects of orbit progression on the radiation exposures from solar proton fluxes in low Earth orbit under geomagnetic storm conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nealy, J E; Wilson, J W; Shea, M A; Smart, D F

    1996-01-01

    The present study examines the effects of orbit progression on the exposures within a Space Station Freedom module in a 51.6-degree inclined orbit at 450 km. The storm evolution is modeled after the November 1960 event, and the solar proton flux evolution is taken from the August 1972 solar proton event. The effects of a strong magnetic shock, such as was observed during the October 1989 event, is also modeled. The statistics on hourly average storm fields for the last forty years reveal that the largest geomagnetic storms approach a Dst value of -500 nanotesla at the storm peak. Similarly, one of the largest satellite-measured proton flux (> 10 MeV) for space exposures is the event of August 1972. The effects of orbit progression (advance of the line of nodes) is examined for the above conditions to study the variation of exposures under differing times of occurrence of the solar proton peak intensity, attainment of geomagnetic storm maximum, and the location of the line of nodes of the last geomagnetically protected orbit. The impact of the inherent inhomogeneity of the space station module is examined as a limiting factor on exposure with regard to the need of additional parasitic shielding.

  11. Extreme changes in the dayside ionosphere during a Carrington-type magnetic storm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mannucci Anthony J.

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available It is shown that during the 30 October 2003 superstorm, dayside O+ ions were uplifted to DMSP altitudes (~850 km. Peak densities were ~9 × 105 cm−3 during the magnetic storm main phase (peak Dst = −390 nT. By comparison the 1–2 September 1859 Carrington magnetic storm (peak Dst estimated at −1760 nT was considerably stronger. We investigate the impact of this storm on the low- to mid-latitude ionosphere using a modified version of the NRL SAMI2 ionospheric code. It is found that the equatorial region (LAT = 0° ± 15° is swept free of plasma within 15 min (or less of storm onset. The plasma is swept to higher altitudes and higher latitudes due to E × B convection associated with the prompt penetration electric field. Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA O+ density enhancements are found to be located within the broad range of latitudes ~ ± (25°–40° at ~500–900 km altitudes. Densities within these peaks are ~6 × 106 oxygen ions-cm−3 at ~700 km altitude, approximately +600% quiet time values. The oxygen ions at the top portions (850–1000 km of uplifted EIAs will cause strong low-altitude satellite drag. Calculations are currently being performed on possible uplift of oxygen neutrals by ion-neutral coupling to understand if there might be further significant satellite drag forces present.

  12. Application of an extreme winter storm scenario to identify vulnerabilities, mitigation options, and science needs in the Sierra Nevada mountains, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albano, Christine M.; Dettinger, Michael; McCarthy, Maureen; Schaller, Kevin D.; Wellborn, Toby; Cox, Dale A.

    2016-01-01

    In the Sierra Nevada mountains (USA), and geographically similar areas across the globe where human development is expanding, extreme winter storm and flood risks are expected to increase with changing climate, heightening the need for communities to assess risks and better prepare for such events. In this case study, we demonstrate a novel approach to examining extreme winter storm and flood risks. We incorporated high-resolution atmospheric–hydrologic modeling of the ARkStorm extreme winter storm scenario with multiple modes of engagement with practitioners, including a series of facilitated discussions and a tabletop emergency management exercise, to develop a regional assessment of extreme storm vulnerabilities, mitigation options, and science needs in the greater Lake Tahoe region of Northern Nevada and California, USA. Through this process, practitioners discussed issues of concern across all phases of the emergency management life cycle, including preparation, response, recovery, and mitigation. Interruption of transportation, communications, and interagency coordination were among the most pressing concerns, and specific approaches for addressing these issues were identified, including prepositioning resources, diversifying communications systems, and improving coordination among state, tribal, and public utility practitioners. Science needs included expanding real-time monitoring capabilities to improve the precision of meteorological models and enhance situational awareness, assessing vulnerabilities of critical infrastructure, and conducting cost–benefit analyses to assess opportunities to improve both natural and human-made infrastructure to better withstand extreme storms. Our approach and results can be used to support both land use and emergency planning activities aimed toward increasing community resilience to extreme winter storm hazards in mountainous regions.

  13. The first super geomagnetic storm of solar cycle 24: "The St. Patrick's day event (17 March 2015)"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Chin-Chun; Liou, Kan; Lepping, Ronald P.; Hutting, Lynn; Plunkett, Simon; Howard, Russ A.; Socker, Dennis

    2016-09-01

    The first super geomagnetic storm (Dst radio bursts. The initial propagation speed of this CME is estimated to be ~668 km/s. An interplanetary (IP) shock, likely driven by a magnetic cloud (MC), arrived at the Wind spacecraft at 03:59 UT on 17 March and caused a sudden storm commencement. The storm intensified during the Earth's crossing of the ICME/shock sheath and then recovered slightly after the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) turned northward. The IMF started turning southward again due to a large MC field itself, which caused the second storm intensification, reaching a minimum value (Dst = -223 nT). It is found that the first step is caused by a southward IMF component in the sheath (between the upstream shock and the front of the MC), whereas the second step is associated with the passage of the MC. The CME that erupted on 15 March is the sole solar source of the MC. We also discuss the CME/storm event with detailed data from observations ( Wind and SOHO) and our algorithm for predicting the intensity of a geomagnetic storm (Dstmin) from known IP parameter values. We found that choosing the correct Dstmin estimating formula for predicting the intensity of MC-associated geomagnetic storms is crucial for space weather predictions.

  14. Reconstruction of Solar Extreme Ultraviolet Flux 1740-2015

    CERN Document Server

    Svalgaard, Leif

    2015-01-01

    Solar Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) radiation creates the conducting E-layer of the ionosphere, mainly by photo ionization of molecular Oxygen. Solar heating of the ionosphere creates thermal winds which by dynamo action induce an electric field driving an electric current having a magnetic effect observable on the ground, as was discovered by G. Graham in 1722. The current rises and sets with the Sun and thus causes a readily observable diurnal variation of the geomagnetic field, allowing us the deduce the conductivity and thus the EUV flux as far back as reliable magnetic data reach. High-quality data go back to the 'Magnetic Crusade' of the 1830s and less reliable, but still usable, data are available for portions of the hundred years before that. J.R. Wolf and, independently, J.-A. Gautier discovered the dependence of the diurnal variation on solar activity, and today we understand and can invert that relationship to construct a reliable record of the EUV flux from the geomagnetic record. We compare that to t...

  15. A European precipitation index for extreme rain‐storm and flash flood early warning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Alfieri, L; Thielen, J

    2015-01-01

    .... Despite recent notable advances in weather forecasting, most operational early warning systems for extreme rainstorms and flash floods are still based on rainfall measurements from rain gauges...

  16. Structuring of intermediate scale equatorial spread F irregularities during intense geomagnetic storm of solar cycle 24

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kakad, B.; Gurram, P.; Tripura Sundari, P. N. B.; Bhattacharyya, A.

    2016-07-01

    Here we examine the structuring of equatorial plasma bubble (EPB) during intense geomagnetic storm of solar cycle (SC) 24 that occurred on 17 March 2015 using spaced receiver scintillation observations on a 251 MHz radio signal, recorded by a network of stations in Indian region. As yet, this is the strongest geomagnetic storm (Dstmin˜-223nT) that occurred in present SC. Present study reveals that the structuring of equatorial spread F (ESF) irregularities was significantly different on 17 March as compared to quiet days of corresponding month. ESF irregularities of intermediate scale (100 m to few kilometers) are observed at unusually higher altitudes (≥ 800 km) covering wider longitudinal-latitudinal belt over Indian region. A presence of large-scale irregularity structures with stronger ΔN at raised F peak with small-scale irregularities at even higher altitudes is observed. It caused strong focusing effect (S4>1) that prevails throughout premidnight hours at dip equatorial station Tirunelveli. Other observational aspect is that zonal irregularity drifts over low-latitude station Kolhapur exhibited a large deviation of ˜230 m/s from their average quiet time pattern. During this geomagnetic storm, two southward turnings of significant strength (BZ≤-15 nT) occurred at 11.4 IST (Indian standard time) and 17.9 IST. The later southward turning of interplanetary magnetic field (IMF)BZ resulted in a large eastward prompt penetration electric field (PPEF) close to sunset hours in Indian longitude. Estimates of PPEF obtained from real-time ionospheric model are too low to explain the observed large upliftment of F region in the post sunset hours. Possible reason for observed enhanced PPEF-linked effects is discussed.

  17. Aircraft Crew Radiation Exposure in Aviation Altitudes During Quiet and Solar Storm Periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, Peter

    The European Commission Directorate General Transport and Energy published in 2004 a summary report of research on aircrew dosimetry carried out by the EURADOS working group WG5 (European Radiation Dosimetry Group, http://www.eurados.org/). The aim of the EURADOS working group WG5 was to bring together, in particular from European research groups, the available, preferably published, experimental data and results of calculations, together with detailed descriptions of the methods of measurement and calculation. The purpose is to provide a dataset for all European Union Member States for the assessment of individual doses and/or to assess the validity of different approaches, and to provide an input to technical recommendations by the experts and the European Commission. Furthermore EURADOS (European Radiation Dosimetry Group, http://www.eurados.org/) started to coordinate research activities in model improvements for dose assessment of solar particle events. Preliminary results related to the European research project CONRAD (Coordinated Network for Radiation Dosimetry) on complex mixed radiation fields at workplaces are presented. The major aim of this work is the validation of models for dose assessment of solar particle events, using data from neutron ground level monitors, in-flight measurement results obtained during a solar particle event and proton satellite data. The radiation protection quantity of interest is effective dose, E (ISO), but the comparison of measurement results obtained by different methods or groups, and comparison of measurement results and the results of calculations, is done in terms of the operational quantity ambient dose equivalent, H* (10). This paper gives an overview of aircrew radiation exposure measurements during quiet and solar storm conditions and focuses on dose results using the EURADOS In-Flight Radiation Data Base and published data on solar particle events

  18. Solar wind - magnetosphere coupling efficiency during ejecta and sheath region driven geomagnetic storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myllys, Minna; Kilpua, Emilia; Lavraud, Benoit

    2016-04-01

    We have investigated the effect of key solar wind driving parameters on solar wind- magnetosphere coupling efficiency during sheath and magnetic cloud driven storms. The particular focus of the study was on the coupling efficiency dependence with Alfven Mach number (MA). The efficiency has been estimated using the dawn-dusk component of the interplanetary electric field (EY), Newell and Borovsky functions as a proxy for the energy inflow and the polar cap potential (PCN), auroral electrojet (AE) and SYM-H indices as the measure of the energy output. We have also performed a time delay analysis between the input parameters and the geomagnetic indices. We demonstrate that the PCN index distinctively shows both a MA dependent saturation and a MA-independent saturation, pointing to the existence of at least two underlying physical mechanisms for the saturation of the index. By contrast, we show that the AE index saturates, but that the saturation of this index is independent of the solar wind MA. Finally we find that the SYM-H index does not seem to saturate and that the absence of saturation is independent of the MA regime.

  19. "We Were Those Who Walked out of Bullets and Hunger": Representation of Trauma and Healing in "Solar Storms"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vernon, Irene S.

    2012-01-01

    Scholars Kali Tal and Cathy Caruth express the importance of trauma literature as "the need to tell and retell the story of the traumatic experience, to make it "real" both to the victim and to the community," and to tell "a reality or truth that is not otherwise available." In "Solar Storms" Linda Hogan vividly recounts the consequences of…

  20. Field-Aligned Currents at the PSBL on 17 August 2001 Storm:Relationships with solar Wind Conditions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHENG Zheng-Wei; SHI Jian-Kui; ZHANG Tie-Long; WANG Sheng-Guo; LIU Zhen-Xing

    2011-01-01

    @@ Using magnetic field and plasma data acquired with Cluster spacecrafts,we investigate the relationship between the field-aligned currents(FACs)at the plasma sheet boundary layer(PSBL)and solar wind dynamic pressure,as well as the interplanetary magnetic field(IMF)By on 17 August 2001 storm.Our studies reveal that FAC density at the PSBL in the magnetotail in the storm time is controlled mainly by the solar wind dynamic pressure rather than IMF By.The FACs at the PSBL are associated with the low-altitude region-1 current and have the same polarity as region-1 current in the dawn sector.In the polar region,the footprints of the FACs at the appeared in this storm time when a substorm just occurred.%Using magnetic field and plasma data acquired with Cluster spacecrafts, we investigate the relationship between the field-aligned currents (FACs) at the plasma sheet boundary layer (PSBL) and solar wind dynamic pressure, as well as the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bv on 17 August 2001 storm. Our studies reveal that FAC density at the PSBL in the magnetotail in the storm time is controlled mainly by the solar wind dynamic pressure rather than IMF By. The FACs at the PSBL are associated with the low-altitude region-1 current and have the same polarity as region-1 current in the dawn sector. In the polar region, the footprints of the FACs at the PSBL expand equatorward. The data analysis also shows that a very strong FAC with a density over 40nA-m~2 appeared in this storm time when a substorm just occurred.

  1. Strong coronal channelling and interplanetary evolution of a solar storm up to Earth and Mars

    CERN Document Server

    Möstl, Christian; Frahm, Rudy A; Liu, Ying D; Long, David M; Colaninno, Robin C; Reiss, Martin A; Temmer, Manuela; Farrugia, Charles J; Posner, Arik; Dumbović, Mateja; Janvier, Miho; Démoulin, Pascal; Boakes, Peter; Devos, Andy; Kraaikamp, Emil; Mays, Mona L; Vrsnak, Bojan

    2015-01-01

    The severe geomagnetic effects of solar storms or coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are to a large degree determined by their propagation direction with respect to Earth. There is a lack of understanding of the processes that determine their non-radial propagation. Here we present a synthesis of data from seven different space missions of a fast CME, which originated in an active region near the disk centre and, hence, a significant geomagnetic impact was forecasted. However, the CME is demonstrated to be channelled during eruption into a direction + 37+/-10 degree (longitude) away from its source region, leading only to minimal geomagnetic effects. In situ observations near Earth and Mars confirm the channelled CME motion, and are consistent with an ellipse shape of the CME-driven shock provided by the new Ellipse Evolution model, presented here. The results enhance our understanding of CME propagation and shape, which can help to improve space weather forecasts.

  2. A Proton-Cyclotron Wave Storm Generated by Unstable Proton Distribution Functions in the Solar Wind

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wicks, R. T.; Alexander, R. L.; Stevens, M.; Wilson, L. B., III; Moya, P. S.; Vinas, A.; Jian, L. K.; Roberts, D. A.; O’Modhrain, S.; Gilbert, J. A.; Zurbuchen, T. H.

    2016-01-01

    We use audification of 0.092 seconds cadence magnetometer data from the Wind spacecraft to identify waves with amplitudes greater than 0.1 nanoteslas near the ion gyrofrequency (approximately 0.1 hertz) with duration longer than 1 hour during 2008. We present one of the most common types of event for a case study and find it to be a proton-cyclotron wave storm, coinciding with highly radial magnetic field and a suprathermal proton beam close in density to the core distribution itself. Using linear Vlasov analysis, we conclude that the long-duration, large-amplitude waves are generated by the instability of the proton distribution function. The origin of the beam is unknown, but the radial field period is found in the trailing edge of a fast solar wind stream and resembles other events thought to be caused by magnetic field footpoint motion or interchange reconnection between coronal holes and closed field lines in the corona.

  3. Observations of a solar storm from the stratosphere: The BARREL Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halford, Alexa

    2016-07-01

    During the Balloon Array for Radiation belt Relativistic Electron Losses (BARREL) second campaign, BARREL observed with a single primary instrument, a 3"x3" NaI spectrometer measuring 20 keV - 10 MeV X-rays [Woodger et al 2015 JGR], portions of an entire solar storm. This very small event, in terms of geomagnetic activity, or one of the largest of the current solar cycle, in terms of solar energetic particle events, has given us a very clear set of observations of the response of the day side magnetosphere to the arrival of an interplanetary coronal mass ejection shock. The BARREL mission of opportunity working in tandem with the Van Allen Probes was designed to study the loss of radiation belt electrons to the ionosphere and upper atmosphere. However BARREL is able to see X-rays from a multitude of sources. During the second campaign, the Sun produced, and BARREL observed, an X-class flare [McGregor et al in prep.]. This was followed by BARREL observations of X-rays, gamma-rays, and directly injected protons from the solar energetic particle (SEP) event associated with the eruption from the Sun while simultaneously the Van Allen Probes observed the SEP protons in the inner magnetosphere [Halford et al 2016 submitted JGR]. Two days later the shock generated by the interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME-shock) hit the Earth while BARREL was in conjunction with the Van Allen Probes and GOES [Halford et al 2015 JGR]. Although this was a Mars directed CME and the Earth only received a glancing blow [Möstl et al 2015 Nat. Commun., Mays et al 2015 ApJ], the modest compression led to the formation of ultra low frequency (ULF) waves, electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves, and very low frequency (VLF) whistler mode waves [Halford and Mann 2016 submitted to JGR]. The combination of these waves and the enhancement of the local particle population led to precipitation of electrons remotely observed by BARREL. This was not a Halloween, Bastille Day, or one of the now

  4. Experimental Comparison of Extreme-Ultraviolet Multilayers for Solar Physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Windt, David L.; Donguy, Soizik; Seely, John; Kjornrattanawanich, Benjawan

    2004-03-01

    We compare the reflectance and stability of multilayers comprising either Si/Mo, Si/Mo2C, Si/B4C, Si/C, or Si/SiC bilayers, designed for use as extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) reflective coatings. The films were deposited by using magnetron sputtering and characterized by both x-ray and EUV reflectometry. We find that the new Si/SiC multilayer offers the greatest spectral selectivity at the longer wavelengths, as well as the greatest thermal stability. We also describe the optimization of multilayers designed for the Solar-B EIS instrument. Finally, we compare experimental reflectance data with calculations and conclude that currently available optical constants cannot be used to adequately model the performance of many of these multilayers.

  5. Extreme storm surges in the south of Brazil: atmospheric conditions and shore erosion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cláudia Klose Parise

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The region under study is regularly subject to the occurrence of storms associated with frontal systems and extratropical cyclones, since it is located near one of the cyclogenetic regions in South America. These storms can generate storm surges that cause anomalous high sea level rises on Cassino Beach. The use of reanalysis data along with an efficient technique for the location of the cyclone, using a vorticity threshold, has provided a new classification based upon the trajectories of events that produce positive sea level variation. Three patterns have been identified: 1 Cyclogenesis to the south of Argentina with displacement to the east and a trajectory between 47.5ºS and 57.5ºS; 2 Cyclogenesis to the south of Uruguay with displacement to the east and a trajectory between 35ºS and 42.5ºS; and 3 Cyclogenesis to the south of Uruguay with displacement to the southeast and a trajectory between 35ºS and 57.5ºS. Maximum water level elevation above the mean sea level and beach erosion were associated, respectively, with winter and summer storms. Cassino beach displayed a seasonal morphological behavior, with short periods of episodic erosion associated with winter storm events followed by long periods of accretion characterized by the dominance of fair weather conditions.Marés meteorológicas que geram sobre-elevações do nível do mar são freqüentes na costa do Rio Grande do Sul e respondem às variações ocorridas na atmosfera. Torna-se importante, dessa maneira, definir padrões meteorológicos sinóticos responsáveis por gerar eventos de marés meteorológicas intensas na Praia do Cassino como objetivo desse trabalho. O uso de dados de reanálise associados a uma técnica eficiente de localização do ciclone, aplicando o conceito de vorticidade, permitiu definir uma nova classificação com base na trajetória de ciclones extratropicais responsáveis pela subida do nível do mar. Três padrões de trajetórias foram

  6. Plasma and Magnetic Field Characteristics of Solar Coronal Mass Ejections in Relation to Geomagnetic Storm Intensity and Variability

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Ying D; Wang, Rui; Yang, Zhongwei; Zhu, Bei; Liu, Yi A; Luhmann, Janet G; Richardson, John D

    2015-01-01

    The largest geomagnetic storms of solar cycle 24 so far occurred on 2015 March 17 and June 22 with $D_{\\rm st}$ minima of $-223$ and $-195$ nT, respectively. Both of the geomagnetic storms show a multi-step development. We examine the plasma and magnetic field characteristics of the driving coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in connection with the development of the geomagnetic storms. A particular effort is to reconstruct the in situ structure using a Grad-Shafranov technique and compare the reconstruction results with solar observations, which gives a larger spatial perspective of the source conditions than one-dimensional in situ measurements. Key results are obtained concerning how the plasma and magnetic field characteristics of CMEs control the geomagnetic storm intensity and variability: (1) a sheath-ejecta-ejecta mechanism and a sheath-sheath-ejecta scenario are proposed for the multi-step development of the 2015 March 17 and June 22 geomagnetic storms, respectively; (2) two contrasting cases of how the CM...

  7. Midlatitude ionospheric changes to four great geomagnetic storms of solar cycle 23 in Southern and Northern Hemispheres

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merline Matamba, Tshimangadzo; Habarulema, John Bosco; Burešová, Dalia

    2016-12-01

    This paper presents an investigation of ionospheric response to great (Dst ≤-350 nT) geomagnetic storms that occurred during solar cycle 23. The storm periods analyzed are 29 March to 2 April 2001, 27-31 October 2003, 18-23 November 2003, and 6-11 November 2004. Global Navigation Satellite System, total electron content (TEC), and ionosonde critical frequency of F2 layer (foF2) data over Southern Hemisphere (African sector) and Northern Hemisphere (European sector) midlatitudes were used to study the ionospheric responses within 15°E-40°E longitude and ±31° to ±46° geomagnetic latitude. Midlatitude regions within the same longitude sector in both hemispheres were selected in order to assess the contribution of the low-latitude changes especially the expansion of equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) also called the dayside ionospheric superfountain effect during these storms. In all storm periods, both negative and positive ionospheric responses were observed in both hemispheres. Negative ionospheric responses were mainly due to changes in neutral composition, while the expansion of the EIA led to pronounced positive storm effects at midlatitudes for some storm periods. In other cases (e.g., 29 October 2003), penetration electric fields, EIA expansion, and large-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances were found to be present during the positive storm effect at midlatitudes in both hemispheres. An increase in TEC on the 28 October 2003 was because of the large solar flare with previously determined intensity of X45 ±5.

  8. Solar Storm GIC Forecasting: Solar Shield Extension Development of the End-User Forecasting System Requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulkkinen, A.; Mahmood, S.; Ngwira, C.; Balch, C.; Lordan, R.; Fugate, D.; Jacobs, W.; Honkonen, I.

    2015-01-01

    A NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Heliophysics Science Division-led team that includes NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, the Catholic University of America, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), and Electric Research and Management, Inc., recently partnered with the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate (S&T) to better understand the impact of Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GIC) on the electric power industry. This effort builds on a previous NASA-sponsored Applied Sciences Program for predicting GIC, known as Solar Shield. The focus of the new DHS S&T funded effort is to revise and extend the existing Solar Shield system to enhance its forecasting capability and provide tailored, timely, actionable information for electric utility decision makers. To enhance the forecasting capabilities of the new Solar Shield, a key undertaking is to extend the prediction system coverage across Contiguous United States (CONUS), as the previous version was only applicable to high latitudes. The team also leverages the latest enhancements in space weather modeling capacity residing at Community Coordinated Modeling Center to increase the Technological Readiness Level, or Applications Readiness Level of the system http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/files/ExpandedARLDefinitions4813.pdf.

  9. Solar Storm GIC Forecasting: Solar Shield Extension Development of the End-User Forecasting System Requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulkkinen, A.; Mahmood, S.; Ngwira, C.; Balch, C.; Lordan, R.; Fugate, D.; Jacobs, W.; Honkonen, I.

    2015-01-01

    A NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Heliophysics Science Division-led team that includes NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, the Catholic University of America, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), and Electric Research and Management, Inc., recently partnered with the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate (S&T) to better understand the impact of Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GIC) on the electric power industry. This effort builds on a previous NASA-sponsored Applied Sciences Program for predicting GIC, known as Solar Shield. The focus of the new DHS S&T funded effort is to revise and extend the existing Solar Shield system to enhance its forecasting capability and provide tailored, timely, actionable information for electric utility decision makers. To enhance the forecasting capabilities of the new Solar Shield, a key undertaking is to extend the prediction system coverage across Contiguous United States (CONUS), as the previous version was only applicable to high latitudes. The team also leverages the latest enhancements in space weather modeling capacity residing at Community Coordinated Modeling Center to increase the Technological Readiness Level, or Applications Readiness Level of the system http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/files/ExpandedARLDefinitions4813.pdf.

  10. Water Detected in the Terrestrial Zone of Extreme Solar Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farihi, Jay

    2015-12-01

    Life as we know it requires water in contact with a rocky planetary surface. In the Solar System, water and other volatiles must have been delivered to a dry Earth from planetesimals, where asteroids in the outer main belt and Jupiter-Saturn region are excellent candidates. The first extrasolar analog of these rocky and water-rich planetesimals was reported between ESS II and III (Farihi et al. 2013, Science, 342, 218), and there is now evidence for additional examples. These results imply an underlying population of large, extrasolar planetesimals formed near a snow line, and suggesting a common mechanism for water delivery to habitable exoplanets.I will present Hubble, Spitzer, and ground-based data that demonstrate the confirmed and likely water-rich nature of exo-asteroids identified in a growing number of white dwarf planetary systems. These extreme solar systems formed and evolved around A-type (and similar) stars -- now firmly retired -- and the asteroid debris now orbits and pollutes the white dwarf with heavy elements, including oxygen in excess of that expected for oxide minerals. The abundance patterns are also carbon-poor, indicating the parent bodies were not icy planetesimals analogous to comets, but instead similar in overall composition to asteroids in the outer main belt.Importantly, these remnant exoplanetary systems imply architectures similar to the Solar System, where a giant planet exterior to a snow line perturbs rocky asteroids on the interior. Thus, they appear to share basic characteristics with HR 8799, Vega, Fomalhaut, and epsilon Eridani where two disks of debris are separated by giant planet(s), with one belt near the snow line. If such archictectures are as common as implied by polluted white dwarfs, then at least 30% of 1.2-3.0 Msun stars have both the tools and ingredentients for water delivery in their terrestrial planet zones.

  11. Behavior of Plasma and Field Parameters and their Relationship with Geomagnetic Indices during Intense Geomagnetic Storms of Solar Cycle 23

    CERN Document Server

    Joshi, Navin Chandra; Pande, Seema; Pande, Bimal; Pandey, Kavita

    2010-01-01

    A correlative study between the geomagnetic indices and the peak values of various plasma and field parameters during rising, maximum and decay phases as well as during complete solar cycle 23 have been presented. We have also presented the lag/lead analysis between the maximum of Dst and peak values of plasma and field parameters and found that peak values of lag/lead time lies in the +/-10 hr interval. Three geomagnetic storms (GMSs) and associated solar sources observed during these phases of this solar cycle have also been studied and found that GMSs are associated with large flares and halo CMEs.

  12. Observations and Predictions of Wave Runup, Extreme Water Levels, and Medium-Term Dune Erosion during Storm Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serge Suanez

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Monitoring of dune erosion and accretion on the high-energy macrotidal Vougot beach in North Brittany (France over the past decade (2004–2014 has revealed significant morphological changes. Dune toe erosion/accretion records have been compared with extreme water level measurements, defined as the sum of (i astronomic tide; (ii storm surge; and (iii vertical wave runup. Runup parameterization was conducted using swash limits, beach profiles, and hydrodynamic (Hm0, Tm0,–1, and high tide water level—HTWL data sets obtained from high frequency field surveys. The aim was to quantify in-situ environmental conditions and dimensional swash parameters for the best calibration of Battjes [1] runup formula. In addition, an empirical equation based on observed tidal water level and offshore wave height was produced to estimate extreme water levels over the whole period of dune morphological change monitoring. A good correlation between this empirical equation (1.01Hmoξo and field runup measurements (Rmax was obtained (R2 85%. The goodness of fit given by the RMSE was about 0.29 m. A good relationship was noticed between dune erosion and high water levels when the water levels exceeded the dune foot elevation. In contrast, when extreme water levels were below the height of the toe of the dune sediment budget increased, inducing foredune recovery. These erosion and accretion phases may be related to the North Atlantic Oscillation Index.

  13. Solar storm effects during Saint Patrick's Days in 2013 and 2015 on the Schumann resonances measured by the ELF station at Sierra Nevada (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salinas, A.; Toledo-Redondo, S.; Navarro, E. A.; Fornieles-Callejón, J.; Portí, J. A.

    2016-12-01

    The effects of solar storms occurring during the days 17 to 19 March 2013 and 2015, St. Patrick's Day intervals, on Schumann resonances (SRs) have been studied. To do this, the experimental data recorded by the Juan Antonio Morente extremely low frequency station located at Sierra Nevada, Spain, have been processed in order to obtain hourly averaged information on the first three resonance modes. Results are compared with monthly averages of the SR data for each hour to detect deviations from the regular behavior. Evidence of significant changes in the peak amplitudes and frequencies of the SRs have been identified in the station's measurements and related to the coronal mass ejection impact in the magnetosphere, detected by in situ plasma measurements onboard spacecraft in the solar wind. However, the complicated nature of the Schumann resonances, dependent on multiple variables and subject to multiple unavoidable interferences (e.g., lightning or human radio sources), in conjunction with the complex magnetosphere-ionosphere-atmosphere coupling processes, makes it difficult to conclude that the observed deviations are exclusively due to the solar events mentioned. Results extracted from only two solar events cannot be considered as conclusive, and therefore, independent comparison with results reported by other research would seem advisable in future works on this subject.

  14. 76 FR 74776 - Forum-Trends in Extreme Winds, Waves, and Extratropical Storms Along the Coasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-01

    ... National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Forum--Trends in Extreme Winds, Waves, and Extratropical... open public forum. SUMMARY: This notice sets forth the schedule and topics of an upcoming forum hosted... the forum and are required to RSVP to Brooke.Stewart@noaa.gov by 5 p.m. EST, Wednesday, December 28...

  15. Universality in solar flares, magnetic storms, earthquakes and pre-seismic electromagnetic emissions by means of nonextensivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eftaxias, K. A.; Balasis, G.; Papadimitriou, C.; Mandea, M.

    2009-12-01

    The field of study of complex systems holds that the dynamics of complex systems are founded on universal principles that may used to describe disparate problems ranging from particle physics to economies of societies. A corollary is that transferring ideas and results from investigators in hitherto disparate areas will cross-fertilize and lead to important new results. In this contribution we investigate a universal behavior, if any, in solar flares, magnetic storms, earthquakes and pre-seismic electromagnetic (EM) emissions. A common characteristic in the dynamics of the above-mentioned four phenomena is that the energy release is basically fragmentary, the events being composed of elementary building blocks. By analogy with earthquakes, magnitude of the magnetic storms, solar flares and pre-seismic electromagnetic emissions can be appropriately defined. The key-question we can ask in the frame of complexity is whether the magnitude distribution of earthquakes, magnetic storms, solar flares and pre-fracture EM emissions obeys to the same law. A central property of the magnetic storm, solar flare, and earthquake preparation process is the possible occurrence of coherent large-scale collective with a very rich structure resulting from the repeated nonlinear interactions among its constituents. Consequently, the non-extensive statistical mechanics is an appropriate arena to investigate universality, if any, in magnetic storm, solar flare, earthquake and pre-failure electromagnetic emission occurrence. A model for earthquake dynamics consisting of two rough profiles interacting via fragments filling the gap has been recently introduced by Solotongo-Costa and Posadas [2004]. An energy distribution function, which gives the Gutenberg-Richter law as a particular case, is analytically deduced. Therefore, the primary question we can ask in the frame of complexity is whether the aforementioned equation not only successfully describes the magnitude distribution of

  16. Solar extreme ultraviolet sensor and advanced langmuir probe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voronka, N. R.; Block, B. P.; Carignan, G. R.

    1992-01-01

    For more than two decades, the staff of the Space Physics Research Laboratory (SPRL) has collaborated with the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) in the design and implementation of Langmuir probes (LP). This program of probe development under the direction of Larry Brace of GSFC has evolved methodically with innovations to: improve measurement precision, increase the speed of measurement, and reduce the weight, size, power consumption and data rate of the instrument. Under contract NAG5-419 these improvements were implemented and are what characterize the Advanced Langmuir Probe (ALP). Using data from the Langmuir Probe on the Pioneer Venus Orbiter, Brace and Walter Hoegy of GSFC demonstrated a novel method of monitoring the solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) flux. This led to the idea of developing a sensor similar to a Langmuir probe specifically designed to measure solar EUV (SEUV) that uses a similar electronics package. Under this contract, a combined instrument package of the ALP and SEUV sensor was to be designed, constructed, and laboratory tested. Finally the instrument was to be flight tested as part of sounding rocket experiment to acquire the necessary data to validate this method for possible use in future earth and planetary aeronomy missions. The primary purpose of this contract was to develop the electronics hardware and software for this instrument, since the actual sensors were suppied by GSFC. Due to budget constraints, only a flight model was constructed. These electronics were tested and calibrated in the laboratory, and then the instrument was integrated into the rocket payload at Wallops Flight Facility where it underwent environmental testing. After instrument recalibration at SPRL, the payload was reintegrated and launched from the Poker Flat Research Range near Fairbanks Alaska. The payload was successfully recovered and after refurbishment underwent further testing and developing to improve its performance for future use.

  17. Space storms as natural hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. I. Dorman

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Eruptive activity of the Sun produces a chain of extreme geophysical events: high-speed solar wind, magnetic field disturbances in the interplanetary space and in the geomagnetic field and also intense fluxes of energetic particles. Space storms can potentially destroy spacecrafts, adversely affect astronauts and airline crew and human health on the Earth, lead to pipeline breaking, melt electricity transformers, and discontinue transmission. In this paper we deal with two consequences of space storms: (i rise in failures in the operation of railway devices and (ii rise in myocardial infarction and stroke incidences.

  18. Source identification of moderate (-100 nT geomagnetic storms (Dst < -100 nT) during ascending phase of solar cycle 24

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Abha; Rathore, V. S.; Singh, R. P.; Singh, A. K.

    2017-03-01

    The origin of 39 moderate (-100 nT geomagnetic storms has been investigated using fixed time window and adoptive time window. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and corotating interaction region (CIR) are found to be the primary sources. Out of 12 intense geomagnetic storms, 6 (50%) events are associated with unique FSH CMEs, 2 (17%) events with multiple FSH CMEs, 3 events (25%) with partial halo CME with no surface signature and 1 event (8%) is caused due to a CIR. Out of 39 moderate geomagnetic storms 21 (54%) are associated with full halo CME and 5 (13%) with partial halo CME, 4 (10%) storms associated with high speed solar wind from CIR whereas 1 storm has been found to be due to the combined effect of CME and CIR. The remaining 8 (20%) storms have unknown solar origins and were mostly observed when solar activity was at the minimum. The probability of a CIR causing a moderate storm is almost double as compared to an intense storm during the ascending phase of weak solar cycle 24.

  19. Coronal mass ejections and other extreme characteristics of the 2003 October-November solar eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopalswamy, N.; Yashiro, S.; Liu, Y.; Michalek, G.; Vourlidas, A.; Kaiser, M. L.; Howard, R. A.

    2005-09-01

    Fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs), X-class flares, solar energetic particle (SEP) events, and interplanetary shocks were abundantly observed during the episode of intense solar activity in late October and early November 2003. Most of the 80 CMEs originated from three active regions (NOAA ARs 484, 486, and 488). We compare the statistical properties of these CMEs with those of the general population of CMEs observed during cycle 23. We find that (1) the 2003 October-November CMEs were fast and wide on the average and hence were very energetic, (2) nearly 20 percent of the ultrafast CMEs (speed ≥2000 km s-1) of cycle 23 occurred during the October-November interval, including the fastest CME of the study period (˜2700 km s-1 on 4 November 2003 at 1954 UT), (3) the rate of full-halo CMEs was nearly four times the average rate during cycle 23, (4) at least sixteen shocks were observed near the Sun, while eight of them were intercepted by spacecraft along the Sun-Earth line, (5) the CMEs were highly geoeffective: the resulting geomagnetic storms were among the most intense of cycle 23, (6) the CMEs were associated with very large SEP events, including the largest event of cycle 23. These extreme properties were commensurate with the size and energy of the associated active regions. This study suggests that the speed of CMEs may not be much higher than ˜3000 km s-1, consistent with the free energy available in active regions. An important practical implication of such a speed limit is that the Sun-Earth travel times of CME-driven shocks may not be less than ˜0.5 day. Two of the shocks arrived at Earth in documented cases of such events since 1859.

  20. Solar Wind Interaction with the Martian Upper Atmosphere at Early Mars/Extreme Solar Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, C.; Bougher, S. W.; Ma, Y.; Toth, G.; Lee, Y.; Nagy, A. F.; Tenishev, V.; Pawlowski, D. J.; Combi, M. R.

    2014-12-01

    The investigation of ion escape fluxes from Mars, resulting from the solar wind interaction with its upper atmosphere/ionosphere, is important due to its potential impact on the long-term evolution of Mars atmosphere (e.g., loss of water) over its history. In the present work, we adopt the 3-D Mars cold neutral atmosphere profiles (0 ~ 300 km) from the newly developed and validated Mars Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model (M-GITM) and the 3-D hot oxygen profiles (100 km ~ 5 RM) from the exosphere Monte Carlo model Adaptive Mesh Particle Simulator (AMPS). We apply these 3-D model output fields into the 3-D BATS-R-US Mars multi-fluid MHD (MF-MHD) model (100 km ~ 20 RM) that can simulate the interplay between Mars upper atmosphere and solar wind by considering the dynamics of individual ion species. The multi-fluid MHD model solves separate continuity, momentum and energy equations for each ion species (H+, O+, O2+, CO2+). The M-GITM model together with the AMPS exosphere model take into account the effects of solar cycle and seasonal variations on both cold and hot neutral atmospheres. This feature allows us to investigate the corresponding effects on the Mars upper atmosphere ion escape by using a one-way coupling approach, i.e., both the M-GITM and AMPS model output fields are used as the input for the multi-fluid MHD model and the M-GITM is used as input into the AMPS exosphere model. In this study, we present M-GITM, AMPS, and MF-MHD calculations (1-way coupled) for 2.5 GYA conditions and/or extreme solar conditions for present day Mars (high solar wind velocities, high solar wind dynamic pressure, and high solar irradiance conditions, etc.). Present day extreme conditions may result in MF-MHD outputs that are similar to 2.5 GYA cases. The crustal field orientations are also considered in this study. By comparing estimates of past ion escape rates with the current ion loss rates to be returned by the MAVEN spacecraft (2013-2016), we can better constrain the

  1. Coupling of the Matched Gravity and Electromagnetic Fields of the Sun with Jupiter and its Moons Together in Nearest Portion of Jupiter's Orbit to the Sun as the Main Cause of the Peak of Approximately 11 Yearly Solar Cycles and Hazards from Solar Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gholibeigian, Kazem; Gholibeigian, Hassan

    2016-04-01

    strongest variable GEFs in solar system after the Sun. For example, Ganymede is the largest moon of Jupiter and in the Solar System. Completing an orbit in roughly seven days. It means that it generates 52 GEFs oscillations (loading, unloading) per year in solar cycle while it is rotating around the Jupiter. New observations of the planet's extreme ultraviolet emissions show that bright explosions of Jupiter's aurora by the planet-moon interaction, not by solar activity [Tomoki Kimura, JAEA]. Coupling of Jupiter's GEFs and its moons with the Sun generate very strong GEFs and approximately 11 yearly solar cycles. The peaks of each cycle is when the Jupiter passes from the nearest portion of its orbit to the Sun. which some of its peaks generate gigantic solar storms and hazards to the Earth. The Earth passes from between of Sun and Jupiter eleven times in each solar cycle and may be under shooting of storms from the both side specially during 2-3 years in cycle's peak.

  2. A first global-scale hindcast of extreme sea levels induced by extra-tropical storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muis, Sanne; Verlaan, Martin; Winsemius, Hessel; Ward, Philip

    2015-04-01

    Flood risk in coastal areas has been increasing in past years. This can be partly attributed to climate change and rising sea levels that increase the likelihood of coastal flood hazards, but also to increasing flood exposure because the global population and capital is increasingly concentrated in coastal zones. Without action, the increasing trends in flood hazard and exposure will be associated with catastrophic flood losses in the future. The adequate allocation of global investments and prioritization of adaptation actions requires an accurate understanding of the current and future coastal flood risk on a global-scale. Despite this, global data on extreme sea levels are scarce. A few studies have assessed coastal flood risk at the global-scale. To date, these have been either based on extreme water levels in the DIVA database or on observations from tide gauges. Both datasets have limitations when assessing flood risk, including low-probability events, on a fully global scale. Hence, there is a need for an improved estimation of extreme sea level on a global-scale. Therefore, we are developing the first global hindcast of coastal water levels which covers the period 1979-2013. To do this, we apply a global hydrodynamic model which is based on the Delft3D Flexible Mesh software from Deltares. By forcing the model with the tidal potential and meteorological fields derived from the ERA-Interim global reanalysis, we are able to simulate the water levels resulting from tides and surges. Subsequently, we apply extreme value statistics to estimate exceedance probabilities. Similar hydrodynamic modelling efforts have been carried out at the regional scale, but as the modelling of surges in shallow coastal areas requires a high-resolution model grid, generally this approach is computationally too costly on a global-scale. However, the recent application of unstructured grids (or flexible mesh) in hydrodynamic models, allowing local refinement of the grid, has enabled

  3. Sediment transport and deposition during extreme sea storm events at the Salerno Bay (Tyrrhenian Sea: comparison of field data with numerical model results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Budillon

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Seismic stratigraphy and core litho-stratigraphy in the Salerno Bay inner shelf (Southern Tyrrhenian Sea reveal significant storm deposition episodes over the last 1 ky. Three major events are preserved as decimetre thick silt/sand layers bounded at their base by erosional surfaces and sealed in the muddy marine sequences between 25 and 60 m of depth. Geochronology and chrono-stratigraphy on core sediment point towards a recurrence of major sea storms between 0.1 and 0.3 ky and put the last significant event in the 19th century, when no local meteorological time series is available. A modelling of extreme sea-storms with a return period of about 0.1 ky is here proposed based on historical hindcast and aims at explaining the occurrence of such unusual deep and thick sand deposits in the northern sector of the bay. Results highlight the vulnerability of the northern coast of the Salerno Bay to the south western sea storms which can drive waves up to about 8 m high and wave period of about 13 s. With these conditions an intense combined flow current is formed and might account for winnowing fine sand down to the depth of 40 m at least. The numerical model thus confirms a possible sand transport in the bottom boundary layer due to wave-current interaction and could corroborate the interpretation of the most recent sand layers, included in the cores, as being generated under extreme sea storm conditions.

  4. Solar-terrestrial storms of October 2003. 2. Five-phase dynamics of the substorm of October 28 30

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivanov, K. G.; Kharshiladze, A. F.

    2007-12-01

    The assumption that a solar-heliospheric storm has five phases is formulated based on the storm that occurred in October 2003. The first phase: slow (between solar rotations) convergent motions of photospheric sources of large-scale open solar fields (LOFs) with generation of active regions (ARs) between these fields. The second phase: magnetic energy pumping with adjustment of zero lines of the photospheric magnetic field in AR to the configuration of the LOF sector (subsector) boundaries. The third phase: AR destabilization with ordering of the complex of sporadic phenomena near ARs parallel to the zero line and fragments of the nearest LOF boundary. The fourth phase: propagation of disturbances in the near-Sun space with ordering relative to the LOF boundaries. The fifth phase: propagation of a coronal mass ejection (CME) in the inner heliosphere in the case when the axial axis of a magnetic cloud in CME is parallel to the LOF boundary and to the zero line in AR. Original results of LOF modeling and a number of substantial results of the known advanced studies of individual aspects of this storm are used to justify this dynamics as applied to the storm of October 28 30. Specific contents and features of each storm phases are presented. The specific feature of the first phase, responsible for the storm space-time scales and intensity, consisted in the displacement of the entire LOF negative magnetic flux (˜5 × 1022 μs) from the north pole to the south with flowing around a midlatitude obstacle and with zonal convergent motions of LOF. The assumption of the AR configuration adjustment (the second phase) and ordering of disturbances (the third five phases) during this storm near the subsector boundary between LOFs of identical polarity has been confirmed. It is noted that the pulse phase of the AR 0486 flare, coronal waves, and dimmings along the subsector boundary and the southwestern LOF “dam” joining ARs 0486 and 0484 (superposition of the third and

  5. Solar Micro-Type III Burst Storms and Long Dipolar Magnetic Field in the Outer Corona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morioka, A.; Miyoshi, Y.; Iwai, K.; Kasaba, Y.; Masuda, S.; Misawa, H.; Obara, T.

    2015-08-01

    Solar micro-type III radio bursts are elements of the so-called type III storms and are characterized by short-lived, continuous, and weak emissions. Their frequency of occurrence with respect to radiation power is quite different from that of ordinary type III bursts, suggesting that the generation process is not flare-related, but due to some recurrent acceleration processes around the active region. We examine the relationship of micro-type III radio bursts with coronal streamers. We also explore the propagation channel of bursts in the outer corona, the acceleration process, and the escape route of electron beams. It is observationally confirmed that micro-type III bursts occur near the edge of coronal streamers. The magnetic field line of the escaping electron beams is tracked on the basis of the frequency drift rate of micro-type III bursts and the electron density distribution model. The results demonstrate that electron beams are trapped along closed dipolar field lines in the outer coronal region, which arise from the interface region between the active region and the coronal hole. A 22 year statistical study reveals that the apex altitude of the magnetic loop ranges from 15 to 50 RS. The distribution of the apex altitude has a sharp upper limit around 50 RS suggesting that an unknown but universal condition regulates the upper boundary of the streamer dipolar field.

  6. Prediction of geomagnetic storms from solar wind data with the use of a neural network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Lundstedt

    Full Text Available An artificial feed-forward neural network with one hidden layer and error back-propagation learning is used to predict the geomagnetic activity index (Dst one hour in advance. The Bz-component and ΣBz, the density, and the velocity of the solar wind are used as input to the network. The network is trained on data covering a total of 8700 h, extracted from the 25-year period from 1963 to 1987, taken from the NSSDC data base. The performance of the network is examined with test data, not included in the training set, which covers 386 h and includes four different storms. Whilst the network predicts the initial and main phase well, the recovery phase is not modelled correctly, implying that a single hidden layer error back-propagation network is not enough, if the measured Dst is not available instantaneously. The performance of the network is independent of whether the raw parameters are used, or the electric field and square root of the dynamical pressure.

  7. Forecasting methods for occurrence and magnitude of proton storms with solar hard X rays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, H. A.

    2004-06-01

    A hard X-ray spectrometer (HXRS) was developed jointly by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Space Environment Center and the Astronomical Institute of the Czech Republic to determine if proton storms could be forecast with greater accuracies than presently available by the existing methods. The HXRS experiment was conceived as a means of proof testing previously discovered empirical relationships between anomalous hard X-ray spectra of hard X-ray flares and solar energetic proton events (SEPs) for space weather forecasting applications. SEPs are showers of highly energetic electrons and ions, mostly protons, that can reach Earth's vicinity within minutes to hours following a moderate to large flare and have the potential of affecting the performance of civilian, military and research satellites as well as certain surface assets. The primary SEP predictor criterion educed during the present study is the requirement that the spectral index, γ, must decline (harden) to at least <=4 for at least 3 min. Flares meeting this criterion have a high association with SEPs. Flares that fail this criterion do not. Other SEP correlative phenomena such as depressed hard X-ray flux and anomalous low temperatures were studied to determine their utility for forecasting purposes. During the study period, March 2000 through December 2002, 107 hard X-ray flares were spectrally analyzed including 16 SEP-associated flares. Fourteen SEP flares were correctly identified, two SEPs were missed, and three false alarms (untrue predictions) were incurred.

  8. Prediction of SYM-H index during large storms by NARX neural network from IMF and solar wind data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Cai

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Similar to the Dst index, the SYM-H index may also serve as an indicator of magnetic storm intensity, but having distinct advantage of higher time-resolution. In this study the NARX neural network has been used for the first time to predict SYM-H index from solar wind (SW and IMF parameters. In total 73 time intervals of great storm events with IMF/SW data available from ACE satellite during 1998 to 2006 are used to establish the ANN model. Out of them, 67 are used to train the network and the other 6 samples for test. Additionally, the NARX prediction model is also validated using IMF/SW data from WIND satellite for 7 great storms during 1995–1997 and 2005, as well as for the July 2000 Bastille day storm and November 2001 superstorm using Geotail and OMNI data at 1 AU, respectively. Five interplanetary parameters of IMF Bz, By and total B components along with proton density and velocity of solar wind are used as the original external inputs of the neural network to predict the SYM-H index about one hour ahead. For the 6 test storms registered by ACE including two super-storms of min. SYM-H<−200 nT, the correlation coefficient between observed and NARX network predicted SYM-H is 0.95 as a whole, even as high as 0.95 and 0.98 with average relative variance of 13.2% and 7.4%, respectively, for the two super-storms. The prediction for the 7 storms with WIND data is also satisfactory, showing averaged correlation coefficient about 0.91 and RMSE of 14.2 nT. The newly developed NARX model shows much better capability than Elman network for SYM-H prediction, which can partly be attributed to a key feedback to the input layer from the output neuron with a suitable length (about 120 min. This feedback means that nearly real information of the ring current status is effectively directed to take part in the prediction of SYM-H index by ANN. The proper history length of the output-feedback may mainly reflect

  9. Extreme Ionospheric Gradients Observed in South Korea during the Last Solar Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, S.; Choi, Y.; Kim, M.; Lee, J.

    2012-12-01

    Ground-Based Augmentation Systems (GBAS) support aircraft precision approach and landing by providing differential corrections for Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) pseudorange measurements and integrity information to aviation users within several tens of kilometers of GBAS-equipped airports. During the peak of the last solar cycle, extreme ionospheric gradients as large as 412 mm/km at high elevation and 360 mm/km at low elevation were observed in the United States. For a GBAS user at a 200-foot decision height (DH) for Category I precision approach, a spatial gradient of 412 mm/km could cause a residual range error of 8 meters. To predict the maximum position errors that GBAS users might suffer from these ionospheric threats, an ionospheric anomaly "threat model" for GBAS was developed in the Conterminous U.S (CONUS). The threat model issued to simulate worst-case ionospheric errors and develop mitigation strategies under ionospheric disturbances. Ionospheric conditions should be investigated for all regions where GBAS will be fielded in the future. We presents a method to identify ionospheric anomalies that can pose a potential integrity risk to GBAS users and details the study of extreme ionospheric gradients observed in South Korea during the last solar cycle. GPS dual-frequency code and carrier-phase measurements collected from a total of 74 GPS reference stations in South Korea were processed to observe ionospheric anomalies. Precise ionospheric delay estimates are obtained using the simplified truth processing method and ionospheric gradients are computed using the well-known "station pair method". Ionospheric threats can be modeled as a spatially linear semi-infinite wedge moving with constant speed in mid-latitude regions. A total of 22 dates during the last solar maximum period in 2000 - 2004 were investigated to identify ionospheric anomalies occurred in South Korea. Ten of the dates were the days previously chosen to construct the current

  10. Extreme coastal storms along the north coast of Ireland: hydrodynamic forcing and beach response during the winter seasons of 2013/14 and 2014/15

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loureiro, Carlos; Marianne, O'Connor; Guisado-Pintado, Emilia; Jackson, Derek; Cooper, Andrew

    2016-04-01

    The increase in storminess (frequency, duration and magnitude) and the occurrence of extreme coastal storms partly associated with climate change, represent pressing concerns for coastal communities in many regions globally. The Atlantic seaboard of Europe has recently experienced record-breaking winter seasons, particularly in Ireland and the UK, where the 2013/14 winter was characterised as the stormiest on record according to measured levels of total precipitation, extreme wind speeds, and particularly the frequency and intensity of cyclone activity. The enhanced cyclone activity during 2013/14 has resulted in unprecedented sequences of extreme water levels and energetic waves and gave rise to widespread coastal erosion and flooding, setting new benchmarks for coastal analysis and offered a glimpse of future storm impact scenarios. A regional analysis of hydrodynamic forcing along the north coast of Ireland over the last two extended winter seasons (October to March) has revealed that, although 2013/14 was indeed characterised by an exceptional frequency and intensity of coastal storms, the 2014/15 extended winter was significantly stormier. Not only was the number of individual storm events higher, but also the duration and intensity was greater, including record values of offshore significant wave height. The geomorphic response along the sandy coastal stretches of the north coast of Ireland, evaluated from morphological change at a diverse group of beach sites, revealed considerable differences in beach erosion and actual shoreline response. Variability in beach changes during these two extreme winter seasons is attributed to a variety of factors. These include localised coastal orientation relative to particular storm tracks, the embayed and highly compartmentalised setting of most of the beaches, as well as site-specific morphodynamic mechanisms such as large rip-current cells forcing the onset and/or reactivation of erosional hotspots. Such heterogeneous

  11. Solar wind variations and geomagnetic storms: A study of individual storms based on a high time resolution ISEE-3 data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Akasofu, S.h.; Olmsted, C.; Smith, E.J.; Tsurutani, B.; Okida, R.; Baker, D.N.

    1985-01-01

    We employ two independent methods to determine the relationship between the epsilon parameter and the total energy dissipation rate of the magnetosphere by selecting disturbed periods from the same data set used by Baker et al. (1983). Specifically, four storms are examined in detail, since the accuracy of estimating U/sub T/ is significantly improved during disturbed periods. The first method assumes U/sub T/ = M/sub A//sup 2alpha/epsilon, where M/sub A/ is the Alfven Mach number and ..cap alpha.. varies with time. The second method considers a linear, time-invariant dynamic system with epsilon as input and U/sub T/ as output. This means U/sub T/ = W*epsilon, where * is convolution and W is a transfer function characteristic of the system. It is found that ..cap alpha.. values fluctuate mainly between 0 and -0.25. The transfer function analysis indicates that W often resembles a delta-function or a narrow rectangular impulse. Both results give the same implication (namely, U/sub T/ approx.epsilon) and thus are consistent with the view that the magnetosphere is primarily a directly driven system during disturbed periods.

  12. Advanced materials for multilayer mirrors for extreme ultraviolet solar astronomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogachev, S A; Chkhalo, N I; Kuzin, S V; Pariev, D E; Polkovnikov, V N; Salashchenko, N N; Shestov, S V; Zuev, S Y

    2016-03-20

    We provide an analysis of contemporary multilayer optics for extreme ultraviolet (EUV) solar astronomy in the wavelength ranges: λ=12.9-13.3  nm, λ=17-21  nm, λ=28-33  nm, and λ=58.4  nm. We found new material pairs, which will make new spaceborne experiments possible due to the high reflection efficiencies, spectral resolution, and long-term stabilities of the proposed multilayer coatings. In the spectral range λ=13  nm, Mo/Be multilayer mirrors were shown to demonstrate a better ratio of reflection efficiency and spectral resolution compared with the commonly used Mo/Si. In the spectral range λ=17-21  nm, a new multilayer structure Al/Si was proposed, which had higher spectral resolution along with comparable reflection efficiency compared with the commonly used Al/Zr multilayer structures. In the spectral range λ=30  nm, the Si/B4C/Mg/Cr multilayer structure turned out to best obey reflection efficiency and long-term stability. The B4C and Cr layers prevented mutual diffusion of the Si and Mg layers. For the spectral range λ=58  nm, a new multilayer Mo/Mg-based structure was developed; its reflection efficiency and long-term stability have been analyzed. We also investigated intrinsic stresses inherent for most of the multilayer structures and proposed possibilities for stress elimination.

  13. Surge Driven Return Flow Results in Deposition of Coarse Grain Horizons Archiving a 4000 Year Record of Extreme Storm Events, Cape Cod, Massachusetts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maio, C. V.; Donnelly, J. P.; Sullivan, R.; Weidman, C. R.; Sheremet, V.

    2014-12-01

    The brevity of the instrumental record and lack of detailed historical accounts is a limiting factor in our understanding of the relationship between climate change and the frequency and intensity of extreme storm events. This study applied paleotempestologic and hydrographic methods to identify the mechanisms of storm-induced coarse grain deposition and reconstruct a late Holocene storm record within Waquoit Bay, Massachusetts. Three sediment cores (6.0 m, 8.4 m, and 8.2 m) were collected in 3 m of water using a vibracore system. Grain sizes were measured along core to identify coarse grain anomalies that serve as a proxy for past storm events. An historical age model (1620-2011 AD) was developed based on Pb pollution chronomarkers derived from X-Ray Florescence bulk Pb data, equating to a sedimentation rate of 8-8.3 mm/yr (R2 = 0.99). A long-term (4000 to 275 years before present) sedimentation rate of 1.1-1.4 mm/yr (R2 = 0.89) was calculated based on twenty-four continuous flow atomic mass spectrometry 14C ages of marine bivalves. To determine hydrographic conditions within the embayment during storm events current meters and tide gauges were deployed during Hurricane Irene (2011) which measured a storm surge of 88 cm above mean sea level. The buildup of storm water against the landward shoreline resulted in a measured 10 cm/s seaward moving bottom current capable of transporting coarse sand eroded from the adjacent shoreface into the coring site. Modeled surges for eleven modern and historic storm events ranged in height from 0.37 m (2011) to 3.72 m (1635) above mean high water. The WAQ1, WAQ2, and WAQ3 cores recorded a total of 89, 139, and 137 positive anomalies that exceeded the lower threshold and 15, 34, and 12 that exceeded the upper threshold respectively. Events recorded during the historic period coincide with documented storm events. The mean frequency within the three cores applying the lower threshold was 2.6 events per century, while applying the

  14. Remote sensing and modelling analysis of the extreme dust storm hitting the Middle East and eastern Mediterranean in September 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomos, Stavros; Ansmann, Albert; Mamouri, Rodanthi-Elisavet; Binietoglou, Ioannis; Patlakas, Platon; Marinou, Eleni; Amiridis, Vassilis

    2017-03-01

    The extreme dust storm that affected the Middle East and the eastern Mediterranean in September 2015 resulted in record-breaking dust loads over Cyprus with aerosol optical depth exceeding 5.0 at 550 nm. We analyse this event using profiles from the European Aerosol Research Lidar Network (EARLINET) and the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO), geostationary observations from the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI), and high-resolution simulations from the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). The analysis of modelling and remote sensing data reveals the main mechanisms that resulted in the generation and persistence of the dust cloud over the Middle East and Cyprus. A combination of meteorological and surface processes is found, including (a) the development of a thermal low in the area of Syria that results in unstable atmospheric conditions and dust mobilization in this area, (b) the convective activity over northern Iraq that triggers the formation of westward-moving haboobs that merge with the previously elevated dust layer, and (c) the changes in land use due to war in the areas of northern Iraq and Syria that enhance dust erodibility.

  15. Relationships between statistics of rainfall extremes and mean annual precipitation: an application for design-storm estimation in northern central Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Di Baldassarre

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Several hydrological analyses need to be founded on a reliable estimate of the design storm, which is the expected rainfall depth corresponding to a given duration and probability of occurrence, usually expressed in terms of return period. The annual series of precipitation maxima for storm duration ranging from 15 min to 1 day, observed at a dense network of raingauges sited in northern central Italy, are analyzed using an approach based on L-moments. The analysis investigates the statistical properties of rainfall extremes and detects significant relationships between these properties and the mean annual precipitation (MAP. On the basis of these relationships, we developed a regional model for estimating the rainfall depth for a given storm duration and recurrence interval in any location of the study region. The applicability of the regional model was assessed through Monte Carlo simulations. The uncertainty of the model for ungauged sites was quantified through an extensive cross-validation.

  16. Regional Risk Assessment for the analysis of the risks related to storm surge extreme events in the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizzi, Jonathan; Torresan, Silvia; Gallina, Valentina; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2013-04-01

    Europe's coast faces a variety of climate change threats from extreme high tides, storm surges and rising sea levels. In particular, it is very likely that mean sea level rise will contribute to upward trends in extreme coastal high water levels, thus posing higher risks to coastal locations currently experiencing coastal erosion and inundation processes. In 2007 the European Commission approved the Flood Directive (2007/60/EC), which has the main purpose to establish a framework for the assessment and management of flood risks for inland and coastal areas, thus reducing the adverse consequences for human health, the environment, cultural heritage and economic activities. Improvements in scientific understanding are thus needed to inform decision-making about the best strategies for mitigating and managing storm surge risks in coastal areas. The CLIMDAT project is aimed at improving the understanding of the risks related to extreme storm surge events in the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea (Italy), considering potential climate change scenarios. The project implements a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology developed in the FP7 KULTURisk project for the assessment of physical/environmental impacts posed by flood hazards and employs the DEcision support SYstem for Coastal climate change impact assessment (DESYCO) for the application of the methodology to the case study area. The proposed RRA methodology is aimed at the identification and prioritization of targets and areas at risk from water-related natural hazards in the considered region at the meso-scale. To this aim, it integrates information about extreme storm surges with bio-geophysical and socio-economic information (e.g. vegetation cover, slope, soil type, population density) of the analyzed receptors (i.e. people, economic activities, cultural heritages, natural and semi-natural systems). Extreme storm surge hazard scenarios are defined using tide gauge time series coming from 28 tide gauge

  17. Morphological changes, beach inundation and overwash caused by an extreme storm on a low-lying embayed beach bounded by a dune system (NW Mediterranean)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durán, Ruth; Guillén, Jorge; Ruiz, Antonio; Jiménez, José A.; Sagristà, Enric

    2016-12-01

    The geomorphological evolution of a low-lying, micro-tidal sandy beach in the western Mediterranean, Pals beach, was characterized using airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data. Data were collected in prior to and six months after the impact of an extreme storm with a return period of approx. 50 years, with the aim of characterizing the beach's response to the storm. The use of repeated high-resolution topographic data to quantify beach geomorphic changes has allowed assessment of the accuracy of different proxies for estimating beach volume changes. Results revealed that changes in the shoreline position cannot accurately reproduce beach volume changes on low-lying beaches where overwash processes are significant. Observations also suggested that volume estimations from beach profiles do not accurately represent subaerial volume changes at large profile distances on beaches with significant alongshore geomorphological variability. Accordingly, the segmentation of the beach into regularly spaced bins is proposed to assess alongshore variations in the beach volume with the accuracy of the topographic data. The morphological evolution of Pals beach during the study period showed a net shoreline retreat (- 4 m) and a significant sediment gain on the subaerial beach (+ 7.5 m3/m). The net gain of sediment is mostly due to the impact of the extreme storm, driving significant overwash processes that transport sediment landwards, increasing volume on the backshore and dunes. The increase of volume on the foreshore and the presence of cuspate morphologies along the shoreline also evidence post-storm beach recovery. Observed morphological changes exhibit a high variability along the beach related to variations in beach morphology. Changes in the morphology and migration of megacusps result in a high variability in the shoreline position and foreshore volume changes. On the other hand, larger morphological changes on the backshore and larger inundation distances

  18. Preface to special issue: Monitoring and modelling to guide coastal adaptation to extreme storm events in a changing climate

    OpenAIRE

    Brown, J.; Ciavola, P.; Masselink, G.; McCall, R; Plater, A.

    2016-01-01

    Storms across the globe and their associated consequences in coastal zones (flooding and erosion), combined with the long-term geomorphic evolution of our coastlines, are a threat to life and assets, both socioeconomic and environmental. In a changing climate, with a rising global sea level, potentially changing patterns in storm tracks and storminess, and rising population density and pressures on the coastal zone, the future risk of coastal storm impacts is likely to increase. Coastal manag...

  19. Detrimental Effects of Extreme Solar Activity on Life on Earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Airapetian, Vladimir; Glocer, Alex; Jackman, Charles

    2015-07-01

    Solar Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), the most energetic eruptions in the Solar System, represent large-scale disturbances forming with the solar corona and are associated with solar flares and Solar Energetic Particles (SEP) events. Current Kepler data from solar-like stars suggest that the frequency of occurrence of energetic flares and associated CMEs from the Sun can be as high as 1 per 1500 years. What effects would CME and associated SEPs have on Earth's habitability? We have performed a three-dimensional time-dependent global magnetohydrodynamic simulation of the magnetic interaction of such a CME cloud with the Earth's magnetosphere. We calculated the global structure of the perturbed magnetosphere and derive the latitude of the open-closed magnetic field boundary. We used a 2D GSFC atmospheric code to calculate the efficiency of ozone depletion in the Earth's atmosphere due to SEP events and its effects on our society and life on Earth.

  20. Assessment and comparison of extreme sea levels and waves during the 2013/2014 storm season in two UK coastal regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. P. Wadey

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The extreme sea levels and waves experienced around the UK's coast during the 2013/2014 winter caused extensive coastal flooding and damage. In such circumstances, coastal managers seek to place such extremes in relation to the anticipated standards of flood protection, and the long-term recovery of the natural system. In this context, return periods are often used as a form of guidance. We therefore provide these levels for the winter storms, as well as discussing their application to the given data sets and case studies (two UK case study sites: Sefton, northwest England; and Suffolk, east England. We use tide gauge records and wave buoy data to compare the 2013/2014 storms with return periods from a national dataset, and also generate joint probabilities of sea level and waves, incorporating the recent events. The UK was hit at a national scale by the 2013/2014 storms, although the return periods differ with location. We also note that the 2013/2014 high water and waves were extreme due to the number of events, as well as the extremity of the 5 December 2013 "Xaver" storm, which had a very high return period at both case study sites. Our return period analysis shows that the national scale impact of this event is due to its coincidence with spring high tide at multiple locations as the tide and storm propagated across the continental shelf. Given that this event is such an outlier in the joint probability analyses of these observed data sets, and that the season saw several events in close succession, coastal defences appear to have provided a good level of protection. This type of assessment should be recorded alongside details of defence performance and upgrade, with other variables (e.g. river levels at estuarine locations included and appropriate offsetting for linear trends (e.g. mean sea level rise so that the storm-driven component of coastal flood events can be determined. Local offsetting of the mean trends in sea level allows long

  1. Mathematical modelling of unglazed solar collectors under extreme operating conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bunea, M.; Perers, Bengt; Eicher, S.

    2015-01-01

    average temperature levels at the evaporator. Simulation of these systems requires a collector model that can take into account operation at very low temperatures (below freezing) and under various weather conditions, particularly operation without solar irradiation.A solar collector mathematical model......Combined heat pumps and solar collectors got a renewed interest on the heating system market worldwide. Connected to the heat pump evaporator, unglazed solar collectors can considerably increase their efficiency, but they also raise the coefficient of performance of the heat pump with higher...... was found due to the condensation phenomenon and up to 40% due to frost under no solar irradiation. This work also points out the influence of the operating conditions on the collector's characteristics.Based on experiments carried out at a test facility, every heat flux on the absorber was separately...

  2. Comparison of solar radio and extreme ultraviolet synoptic limb charts during the present solar maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira e Silva, A. J.; Selhorst, C. L.; Simões, P. J. A.; Giménez de Castro, C. G.

    2016-08-01

    Aims: The present solar cycle is particular in many aspects: it had a delayed rising phase, it is the weakest of the last 100 yrs, and it presents two peaks separated by more than one year. To understand the impact of these characteristics on the solar chromosphere and coronal dynamics, images from a wide wavelength range are needed. In this work we use the 17 GHz radio continuum, which is formed in the upper chromosphere and the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lines 304 and 171 Å, that come from the transition region (He ii, T ~ 6-8 × 104 K) and the corona (Fe IX, X, T ~ 106 K), respectively.We extend upon a previous similar analysis, and compare the mean equatorial and polar brightening behavior at radio and EUV wavelengths during the maximum of the present solar cycle, covering the period between 2010 and 2015. Methods: We analyze daily images at 304 and 171 Å obtained by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). The 17 GHz maps were obtained by the Nobeyama Radioheliograph (NoRH). To construct synoptic limb charts, we calculated the mean emission of delimited limb areas with 100'' wide and angular separation of 5°. Results: At the equatorial region, the results show a hemispheric asymmetry of the solar activity. The northern hemisphere dominance is coincident with the first sunspot number peak, whereas the second peak occurs concurrently with the increase in the activity at the south. The polar emission reflects the presence of coronal holes at both EUV wavelengths, moreover, the 17 GHz polar brightenings can be associated with the coronal holes. Until 2013, both EUV coronal holes and radio polar brightenings were more predominant at the south pole.Since then they have not been apparent in the north, but thus appear in the beginning of 2015 in the south as observed in the synoptic charts. Conclusions: This work strengthens the association between coronal holes and the 17 GHz polar brightenings as it is evident in the

  3. Minimum extreme temperature in the gulf of mexico: is there a connection with solar activity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maravilla, D.; Mendoza, B.; Jauregui, E.

    Minimum extreme temperature ( MET) series from several meteorological stations of the Gulf of Mexico are spectrally analyzed using the Maximum Entrophy Method. We obtained periodicities similar to those found in the sunspot number, the magnetic solar cycle, comic ray fluxes and geomagnetic activity which are modulated by solar activity. We suggested that the solar signal is perhaps present in the MET record of this region of Mexico.

  4. The investigation of form and processes in the coastal zone under extreme storm events - the case study of Rethymno, Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afentoulis, Vasileios; Mohammadi, Bijan; Tsoukala, Vasiliki

    2017-04-01

    Coastal zone is a significant geographical and particular region, since it gathers a wide range of social-human's activities and appears to be a complex as well as fragile system of natural variables. Coastal communities are increasingly at risk from serious coastal hazards, such as shoreline erosion and flooding related to extreme hydro-meteorological events: storm surges, heavy precipitation, tsunamis and tides. In order to investigate the impact of these extreme events on the coastal zone, it is necessary to describe the driving mechanisms which contribute to its destabilization and more precisely the interaction between the wave forces and the transport of sediment. The aim of the present study is to examine the capability of coastal zone processes simulation under extreme wave events, using numerical models, in the coastal area of Rethymno, Greece. Rethymno city is one of the eleven case study areas of PEARL (Preparing for Extreme And Rare events in coastal regions) project, an EU funded research project, which aims at developing adaptive risk management strategies for coastal communities focusing on extreme hydro-meteorological events, with a multidisciplinary approach integrating social, environmental and technical research and innovation so as to increase the resilience of coastal regions all over the world. Within this framework, three different numerical models have been used: the MIKE 21 - DHI, the XBeach model and a numerical formulation for sea bed evolution, developed by Afaf Bouharguane and Bijan Mohammadi (2013). For the determination of the wave and hydrodynamic conditions, as well as the assessment of the sediment transport components, the MIKE 21 SW and the MIKE 21 FM modules have been applied and the bathymetry of Rethymno is arranged into a 2D unstructured mesh. This method of digitalization was selected because of its ability to easily represent the complex geometry of the coastal zone. It allows smaller scale wave characteristics to be

  5. Timescale separation in the solar wind-magnetosphere coupling during St. Patrick's Day storms in 2013 and 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alberti, T.; Consolini, G.; Lepreti, F.; Laurenza, M.; Vecchio, A.; Carbone, V.

    2017-04-01

    In this work, we present a case study of the relevant timescales responsible for coupling between the changes of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) conditions and the magnetospheric dynamics during the St. Patrick's Day Geomagnetic Storms in 2013 and 2015. We investigate the behavior of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) component Bz, the Perreault-Akasofu coupling function and the AE, AL, AU, SYM-H, and ASY-H geomagnetic indices at different timescales by using the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method and the delayed mutual information (DMI). The EMD, indeed, allows to extract the intrinsic oscillations (modes) present into the different data sets, while the DMI, which provides a measure of the total amount of the linear and nonlinear shared information (correlation degree), allows to investigate the relevance of the different timescales in the solar wind-magnetosphere coupling. The results clearly indicate the existence of a relevant timescale separation in the solar wind-magnetosphere coupling. Indeed, while fluctuations at long timescales (τ > 200 min) show a large degree of correlation between solar wind parameters and magnetospheric dynamics proxies, at short timescales (τ IMF. Conversely, the magnetospheric dynamics in response to the solar wind/IMF driver at timescales longer than 200 min resembles the changes observed in the solar wind/IMF features. Finally, these results can be useful for Space Weather forecasting.

  6. Extreme ultraviolet solar irradiance during the rising phase of solar cycle 24 observed by PROBA2/LYRA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zender Joe

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The Large-Yield Radiometer (LYRA is a radiometer that has monitored the solar irradiance at high cadence and in four pass bands since January 2010. Both the instrument and its spacecraft, PROBA2 (Project for OnBoard Autonomy, have several innovative features for space instrumentation, which makes the data reduction necessary to retrieve the long-term variations of solar irradiance more complex than for a fully optimized solar physics mission. In this paper, we describe how we compute the long-term time series of the two extreme ultraviolet irradiance channels of LYRA and compare the results with those of SDO/EVE. We find that the solar EUV irradiance has increased by a factor of 2 since the last solar minimum (between solar cycles 23 and 24, which agrees reasonably well with the EVE observations.

  7. Extreme dust storm over the eastern Mediterranean in September 2015: satellite, lidar, and surface observations in the Cyprus region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamouri, Rodanthi-Elisavet; Ansmann, Albert; Nisantzi, Argyro; Solomos, Stavros; Kallos, George; Hadjimitsis, Diofantos G.

    2016-11-01

    A record-breaking dust storm originating from desert regions in northern Syria and Iraq occurred over the eastern Mediterranean in September 2015. In this contribution of a series of two articles (part 1, observations; part 2, atmospheric modeling), we provide a comprehensive overview of the aerosol conditions during this extreme dust outbreak in the Cyprus region. These observations are based on satellite observations (MODIS, moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer) of aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and Ångström exponent, surface particle mass (PM10) concentrations measured at four sites in Cyprus, visibility observations at three airports in southern Cyprus and corresponding conversion products (particle extinction coefficient, dust mass concentrations), EARLINET (European Aerosol Research Lidar Network) lidar observations of dust vertical layering over Limassol, particle optical properties (backscatter, extinction, lidar ratio, linear depolarization ratio), and derived profiles of dust mass concentrations. Maximum 550 nm AOT exceeded values of 5.0, according to MODIS, and the mass loads were correspondingly > 10 g m-2 over Larnaca and Limassol during the passage of an extremely dense dust front on 8 September 2015. Hourly mean PM10 values were close to 8000 µg m-3 and the observed meteorological optical range (visibility) was reduced to 300-750 m at Larnaca and Limassol. The visibility observations suggest peak values of the near-surface total suspended particle (TSP) extinction coefficients of 6000 Mm-1 and thus TSP mass concentrations of 10 000 µg m-3. The Raman polarization lidar observations mainly indicated a double layer structure of the dust plumes (reaching to about 4 km height), pointing to at least two different dust source regions. Dust particle extinction coefficients (532 nm) already exceeded 1000 Mm-1 and the mass concentrations reached 2000 µg m-3 in the elevated dust layers on 7 September, more than 12 h before the peak dust front on

  8. Thyroid storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thyrotoxic storm; Hyperthyroid storm; Accelerated hyperthyroidism; Thyroid crisis; Thyrotoxicosis - thyroid storm ... Thyroid storm occurs due to a major stress such as trauma, heart attack , or infection. In rare ...

  9. Eastern Australian Coastal Behaviour in Response to Extreme Storm Climate Between 1600-1900 AD, Determined from a Coupled Climate Reconstruction and Coastal Morphodynamic Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodwin, I. D.; Browning, S. A.; Mortlock, T.

    2014-12-01

    A sustained morphodynamic reorganisation of the east Australian coast occurred over a large latitudinal gradient from subtropical Queensland (S 25°) to mid-latitude Bass Strait (S 40°) between ~1600 to 1900 CE. These changes indicate that a large-scale shift in the modal climate occurred together with changes in extreme storm frequency or clustering of East Coast Cyclones (ECC), when compared to the past century. ECC are complex subtropical weather systems that form off the east coast of Australia and/or travel parallel to the coast of Australia from south-east Queensland to Victoria. We investigate coastal evolution and the associated climate drivers using a novel combination of methods, including: LIDAR DEM and field mapping of coastal geology; a decadal-scale climate reconstruction of sea-level pressure, marine windfields, and paleo-storm synoptic type and frequency, using a paleoclimate data assimilation approach; together with wave transformation and coastal planform modelling for paleo-wave directions, and historical bathymetry. We present the morphodynamic response to changes in directional wave power, by linking the paleo-windfield reconstruction to wave transformation models. The combined methodology has illuminated the 'ultimate' storm impacts not seen in the past century, and defines the multi-decadal coastal system response and recovery to extreme storm sequences. Increased embaymentisation and anticlockwise rotation of embayed and barrier coast planform geometry; shifts in barrier-estuary-inlet configuration; and a ubiquitous foredune transgression, are shown to have occurred between ~1600 to 1800 CE. This was in response to a poleward shift in the subtropics and frequency of tradewind-driven wave climate, and tropical-origin storms. From 1800 to 1900 CE, an equatorward shift in the subtropics, and clustering of extratropical-origin storms drove an increase in the shoreface-littoral sediment budget and a clockwise coastline progradation. This

  10. Decadal variability of extreme wave height representing storm severity in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea since the foundation of the Royal Society

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santo, H.; Taylor, P. H.; Gibson, R.

    2016-09-01

    Long-term estimation of extreme wave height remains a key challenge because of the short duration of available wave data, and also because of the possible impact of climate variability on ocean waves. Here, we analyse storm-based statistics to obtain estimates of extreme wave height at locations in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea using the NORA10 wave hindcast (1958-2011), and use a 5 year sliding window to examine temporal variability. The decadal variability is correlated to the North Atlantic oscillation and other atmospheric modes, using a six-term predictor model incorporating the climate indices and their Hilbert transforms. This allows reconstruction of the historic extreme climate back to 1661, using a combination of known and proxy climate indices. Significant decadal variability primarily driven by the North Atlantic oscillation is observed, and this should be considered for the long-term survivability of offshore structures and marine renewable energy devices. The analysis on wave climate reconstruction reveals that the variation of the mean, 99th percentile and extreme wave climates over decadal time scales for locations close to the dominant storm tracks in the open North Atlantic are comparable, whereas the wave climates for the rest of the locations including the North Sea are rather different.

  11. Decadal variability of extreme wave height representing storm severity in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea since the foundation of the Royal Society.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santo, H; Taylor, P H; Gibson, R

    2016-09-01

    Long-term estimation of extreme wave height remains a key challenge because of the short duration of available wave data, and also because of the possible impact of climate variability on ocean waves. Here, we analyse storm-based statistics to obtain estimates of extreme wave height at locations in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea using the NORA10 wave hindcast (1958-2011), and use a 5 year sliding window to examine temporal variability. The decadal variability is correlated to the North Atlantic oscillation and other atmospheric modes, using a six-term predictor model incorporating the climate indices and their Hilbert transforms. This allows reconstruction of the historic extreme climate back to 1661, using a combination of known and proxy climate indices. Significant decadal variability primarily driven by the North Atlantic oscillation is observed, and this should be considered for the long-term survivability of offshore structures and marine renewable energy devices. The analysis on wave climate reconstruction reveals that the variation of the mean, 99th percentile and extreme wave climates over decadal time scales for locations close to the dominant storm tracks in the open North Atlantic are comparable, whereas the wave climates for the rest of the locations including the North Sea are rather different.

  12. Ionosphere-thermosphere (IT) response to solar wind forcing during magnetic storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Cheryl Yu-Ying; Huang, Yanshi; Su, Yi-Jiun; Sutton, Eric K.; Rotan Hairston, Marc; Coley, William Robin

    2016-01-01

    During magnetic storms, there is a strong response in the ionosphere and thermosphere which occurs at polar latitudes. Energy input in the form of Poynting flux and energetic particle precipitation, and energy output in the form of heated ions and neutrals have been detected at different altitudes and all local times. We have analyzed a number of storms, using satellite data from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP), the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE), and Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) mission. Poynting flux measured by instruments on four DMSP spacecraft during storms which occurred in 2011-2012 was observed in both hemispheres to peak at both auroral and polar latitudes. By contrast, the measured ion temperatures at DMSP and maxima in neutral density at GOCE and GRACE altitudes maximize in the polar region most frequently with little evidence of Joule heating at auroral latitudes at these spacecraft orbital locations.

  13. Erosion under extreme climatic events in tropical climates : the case of the storm Helena (1963) in the Guadeloupe island (Lesser Antilles Arc)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allemand, P.; Lajeunesse, E.; Devauchelle, O.; Delacourt, C.

    2012-04-01

    he volume of sediment exported from a tropical watershed is dramatically increased during extreme climatic events, such as storms and tropical cyclones (Dadson et al. 2004; Hilton et al. 2008). Indeed, the exceptionally high rainfall rates reached during these events generate runoff and trigger landslides which accumulate a significant amount of sediments in flooded rivers (Gabet et al., 2004; Lin et al., 2008). We estimate the volume of sediments mobilized by the storm Helena (26 to 28 October 1963) on Basse-Terre Island in the archipelago of Guadeloupe. This is achieved using images acquired by IGN (Institut Géographique National) a few weeks after the storm which produced numerous landslides. All the available images from this campaign have been pseudo-orthorectified and included in a GIS with a Digital Elevation Model with a resolution of 10 m. Two hundred fifty three landslides have been identified and mapped. Most of them are located in the center of the island, where the highest slopes are. The cumulated surface of the landslides is 0.5 km2. Field observations on Basse-Terre show that landslides mobilized the whole regolith layer, which is about 1m thick. Assuming an average landslide thickness of 1m, we find that the total volume of sediment mobilized by the storm Helena is 0.5 km3. The associated denudation averaged over all watersheds affected by landslides is 1.4 mm with a maximum of 5 mm for the watersheds of Vieux-Habitants and Capesterre. The impact of the storm Helena is then discussed with respect to 1) the erosion induced on the Capesterre catchment by the highest flood available in a two years survey record (less than 0.1 mm/y); 2) the long term denudation rate of the major watersheds of Basse-Terre estimated by reconstructing the initial volcanic topography (between 0.1 and 0.4 mm/y).

  14. Weathering a Perfect Storm from Space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, Jeffrey J.

    2016-01-01

    Extreme space-weather events — intense solar and geomagnetic storms — have occurred in the past: most recently in 1859, 1921 and 1989. So scientists expect that, sooner or later, another extremely intense spaceweather event will strike Earth again. Such storms have the potential to cause widespread interference with and damage to technological systems. A National Academy of Sciences study projects that an extreme space-weather event could end up costing the American economy more than $1 trillion. The question now is whether or not we will take the actions needed to avoid such expensive consequences. Let’s assume that we do. Below is an imagined scenario of how, sometime in the future, an extreme space-weather event might play out.

  15. Solar and Interplanetary Causes of Extremely Intense Substorms During Superstorms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsurutani, Bruce; Hajra, Rajkumar; Echer, Ezequiel; Gjerloev, Jesper

    2016-04-01

    We have begun a study of particularly intense substorms that occur during superstorms. We will relate the solar cycle dependences of events, whether they are externally or internally triggered, and their relationship to other factors such as magnetospheric preconditioning. If time permits, we will explore the details of the events and whether they are similar to regular (Akasofu, 1964) substorms or not. These intense substorms are an important feature of space weather since they may be responsible for power outages.

  16. Polarimetry of extreme ultraviolet lines in solar astronomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fineschi, Silvano; Hoover, Richard B.; Fontenla, Juan M.; Walker, Arthur B. C., Jr.

    1991-01-01

    Ways are suggested in which recent advancements in the fabrication of ultrasmooth, low scatter flow-polished mirror substrates and high-quality multilayer and interference film coatings can be used to create novel optical instruments for observing linear-polarization effects in the outer solar atmosphere. Attention is given to the observational parameters of all-reflective FUV/EUV imaging polarimeters; such a coronagraph/polarimeter, operating at Ly-alpha, could yield the first measurements of coronal vector magnetic fields.

  17. Multispacecraft observations of the terrestrial bow shock and magnetopause during extreme solar wind disturbances

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tatrallyay, M.; Erdos, G.; Nemeth, Z.

    2012-01-01

    by the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) component transverse to the solar wind flow. The observed magnetopause crossings could be predicted with a reasonable accuracy (0.1-0.2 RE) by one of the presented models at least. For geosynchronous magnetopause crossings observed by the GOES satellites, (1) the new model...... provided the best predictions when the IMF was extremely large having a large negative Bz component, and (2) the predictions of the model of Shue et al. (1998) agreed best with the observations when the solar wind dynamic pressure was extremely large. The magnetopause crossings close to the cusp observed......Three events are discussed from the declining phase of the last solar cycle when the magnetopause and/or the bow shock were observed unusually close to the Earth due to major interplanetary disturbances. The observed extreme locations of the discontinuities are compared with the predictions...

  18. Correlation of geomagnetic anomalies recorded at Muntele Rosu Seismic Observatory (Romania with earthquake occurrence and solar magnetic storms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian Septimiu Moldovan

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available

    The study presents a statistical cross-correlation between geomagnetic anomalies, earthquake occurrence and solar magnetic storms. The working data are from: (i geomagnetic field records from Muntele Rosu (MLR Observatory, and from Surlari (SUA and/or Tihany (THY INTERMAGNET Observatories; (ii seismic data for the Vrancea source zone; and (iii daily geomagnetic indices from the NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center. All of the geomagnetic datasets were recorded from 1996 to the present, at MLR, SUA or THY, and they were automatically corrected using a LabVIEW program developed especially for this purpose, highlighting the missing or bad data. Missing data blocks were completed with the last good measured value. After correction of the data, there were a number of issues seen regarding previous interpretations of the geomagnetic anomalies. Some geomagnetic anomalies identified as precursory signals were found to be induced either by increased solar activity or by malfunction of the data acquisition system, which produced inconsistent data, with numerous gaps. The MLR geomagnetic data are compared with the data recorded at SUA/THY and correlated with seismicity and solar activity. These 15 years of investigations cover more than a complete solar cycle, during which time the solar-terrestrial perturbations have fluctuated from very low to very high values, providing the ideal medium to investigate the correlations between the geomagnetic field perturbations, the earthquakes and the solar activity. The largest intermediate depth earthquake produced in this interval had a moment magnitude Mw 6.0 (2004 and provided the opportunity to investigate possible connections between local geomagnetic field behavior and local intermediate seismicity.

     

  19. Ionospheric data assimilation and forecasting during storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chartier, Alex T.; Matsuo, Tomoko; Anderson, Jeffrey L.; Collins, Nancy; Hoar, Timothy J.; Lu, Gang; Mitchell, Cathryn N.; Coster, Anthea J.; Paxton, Larry J.; Bust, Gary S.

    2016-01-01

    Ionospheric storms can have important effects on radio communications and navigation systems. Storm time ionospheric predictions have the potential to form part of effective mitigation strategies to these problems. Ionospheric storms are caused by strong forcing from the solar wind. Electron density enhancements are driven by penetration electric fields, as well as by thermosphere-ionosphere behavior including Traveling Atmospheric Disturbances and Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances and changes to the neutral composition. This study assesses the effect on 1 h predictions of specifying initial ionospheric and thermospheric conditions using total electron content (TEC) observations under a fixed set of solar and high-latitude drivers. Prediction performance is assessed against TEC observations, incoherent scatter radar, and in situ electron density observations. Corotated TEC data provide a benchmark of forecast accuracy. The primary case study is the storm of 10 September 2005, while the anomalous storm of 21 January 2005 provides a secondary comparison. The study uses an ensemble Kalman filter constructed with the Data Assimilation Research Testbed and the Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model. Maps of preprocessed, verticalized GPS TEC are assimilated, while high-latitude specifications from the Assimilative Mapping of Ionospheric Electrodynamics and solar flux observations from the Solar Extreme Ultraviolet Experiment are used to drive the model. The filter adjusts ionospheric and thermospheric parameters, making use of time-evolving covariance estimates. The approach is effective in correcting model biases but does not capture all the behavior of the storms. In particular, a ridge-like enhancement over the continental USA is not predicted, indicating the importance of predicting storm time electric field behavior to the problem of ionospheric forecasting.

  20. Light trapping in solar cells at the extreme coupling limit

    CERN Document Server

    Naqavi, Ali; Battaglia, Corsin; Herzig, Hans Peter; Ballif, Christophe

    2012-01-01

    We calculate the maximal absorption enhancement obtainable by guided mode excitation in a weakly absorbing dielectric slab over wide wavelength ranges. The slab mimics thin film silicon solar cells in the low absorption regime. We consider simultaneously wavelength-scale periodicity of the texture, small thickness of the film, modal properties of the guided waves and their confinement to the film. Also we investigate the effect of the incident angle on the absorption enhancement. Our calculations provide tighter bounds for the absorption enhancement but still significant improvement is possible. Our explanation of the absorption enhancement can help better exploitation of the guided modes in thin film devices.

  1. Energy balance during intense and super-intense magnetic storms using an Akasofu ɛ parameter corrected by the solar wind dynamic pressure

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Lucas, A.; Gonzalez, W. D.; Echer, E.; Guarnieri, F. L.; Dal Lago, A.; da Silva, M. R.; Vieira, L. E. A.; Schuch, N. J.

    2007-11-01

    Geomagnetic storms are large disturbances in the Earth's magnetosphere caused by enhanced solar wind magnetosphere energy transfer. One of the main manifestations of a geomagnetic storm is the ring current enhancement. It is responsible for the decrease in the geomagnetic field observed at ground stations. In this work, we study the ring current dynamics during two different levels of magnetic storms. Thirty-three events are selected during the period 1981 2004. Eighteen out of 33 events are very intense (or super-intense) magnetic storms (Dst ⩽-250 nT) and the remaining are intense magnetic storms (-250ISEE-3) and geomagnetic indices (Dst and Sym-H) are analyzed. Our aim is to evaluate the interplanetary characteristics (interplanetary dawn dusk electric field, interplanetary magnetic field component BS), the ɛ parameter, and the total energy input into the magnetosphere (Wɛ) for these two classes of magnetic storms. Two corrections on the ɛ energy coupling function are made: the first one is an already known correction in the magnetopause radius to take into account the variation in the solar wind pressure. The second correction on the Akasofu parameter, first proposed in this work, accounts for the reconnection efficiency as a function of the solar wind ram pressure. Geomagnetic data/indices are also employed to study the ring current dynamics and to search for the differences in the storm evolution during these events. Our corrected ɛ parameter is shown to be more adequate to explain storm energy balance because the energy input and the energy dissipated in the ring current are in better agreement with modern estimates as compared with previous works. For super-intense storms, the correction of the Akasofu ɛ is on average a scaling factor of 3.7, whilst for intense events, this scaling factor is on average 3.4. The injected energy during the main phase using corrected ɛ can be considered a criterion to separate intense from very intense storms. Other

  2. Extremely high reflection of solar wind protons as neutral hydrogen atoms from regolith in space

    CERN Document Server

    Wieser, Martin; Futaana, Yoshifumi; Holmström, Mats; Bhardwaj, Anil; Sridharan, R; Dhanya, MB; Wurz, Peter; Schaufelberger, Audrey; Asamura, Kazushi; 10.1016/j.pss.2009.09.012

    2010-01-01

    We report on measurements of extremely high reflection rates of solar wind particles from regolith-covered lunar surfaces. Measurements by the Sub-keV Atom Reflecting Analyzer (SARA) instrument on the Indian Chandrayaan-1 spacecraft in orbit around the Moon show that up to 20% of the impinging solar wind protons are reflected from the lunar surface back to space as neutral hydrogen atoms. This finding, generally applicable to regolith-covered atmosphereless bodies, invalidates the widely accepted assumption that regolith almost completely absorbs the impinging solar wind.

  3. On the log-normality of historical magnetic-storm intensity statistics: implications for extreme-event probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, Jeffrey J.; Rigler, E. Joshua; Pulkkinen, Antti; Riley, Pete

    2015-01-01

    An examination is made of the hypothesis that the statistics of magnetic-storm-maximum intensities are the realization of a log-normal stochastic process. Weighted least-squares and maximum-likelihood methods are used to fit log-normal functions to −Dst storm-time maxima for years 1957-2012; bootstrap analysis is used to established confidence limits on forecasts. Both methods provide fits that are reasonably consistent with the data; both methods also provide fits that are superior to those that can be made with a power-law function. In general, the maximum-likelihood method provides forecasts having tighter confidence intervals than those provided by weighted least-squares. From extrapolation of maximum-likelihood fits: a magnetic storm with intensity exceeding that of the 1859 Carrington event, −Dst≥850 nT, occurs about 1.13 times per century and a wide 95% confidence interval of [0.42,2.41] times per century; a 100-yr magnetic storm is identified as having a −Dst≥880 nT (greater than Carrington) but a wide 95% confidence interval of [490,1187] nT.

  4. On the Log-Normality of Historical Magnetic-Storm Intensity Statistics: Implications for Extreme-Event Probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, J. J.; Rigler, E. J.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Riley, P.

    2015-12-01

    An examination is made of the hypothesis that the statistics of magnetic-storm-maximum intensities are the realization of a log-normal stochastic process. Weighted least-squares and maximum-likelihood methods are used to fit log-normal functions to -Dst storm-time maxima for years 1957-2012; bootstrap analysis is used to established confidence limits on forecasts. Both methods provide fits that are reasonably consistent with the data; both methods also provide fits that are superior to those that can be made with a power-law function. In general, the maximum-likelihood method provides forecasts having tighter confidence intervals than those provided by weighted least-squares. From extrapolation of maximum-likelihood fits: a magnetic storm with intensity exceeding that of the 1859 Carrington event, -Dst > 850 nT, occurs about 1.13 times per century and a wide 95% confidence interval of [0.42, 2.41] times per century; a 100-yr magnetic storm is identified as having a -Dst > 880 nT (greater than Carrington) but a wide 95% confidence interval of [490, 1187] nT. This work is partially motivated by United States National Science and Technology Council and Committee on Space Research and International Living with a Star priorities and strategic plans for the assessment and mitigation of space-weather hazards.

  5. Using the IRI, the MAGIC model, and the co-located ground-based GPS receivers to study ionospheric solar eclipse and storm signatures on July 22, 2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Chi-Yen; Liu, Jann-Yenq; Lin, Chien-Hung; Sun, Yang-Yi; Araujo-Pradere, Eduardo A.; Kakinami, Yoshihiro

    2012-06-01

    The longest total solar eclipse in the 21st century occurred in Southeast Asia on 22 July 2009 from 00:55 to 04:15 UT, and was accompanied by a moderate magnetic storm starting at 03:00 UT with a D st reduction of -78 nT at 07:00 UT. In this study, we use the ionospheric reference model IRI, the data assimilation model MAGIC, and ground-based GPS receivers to simulate and examine the ionospheric solar eclipse and geomagnetic storm signatures in Taiwan and Japan. Cross-comparisons between the two model results and observations show that IRI fails to simulate the two signatures while MAGIC partially reproduces the storm features. It is essential to include ground-based GPS measurements to improve the IRI performance.

  6. Solar and Interplanetary Sources of Major Geomagnetic Storms (Dst less than or equal to -100 nT) During 1996 - 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, J.; Richardson, I.; Webb, D. F.; Gopalswamy, N.; Huttunen, E.; Kasper, J.; Nitta, N.; Poomvises, W.; Thompson, B. J.; Wu, C.-C.; Yashiro, S.; Zhukov, A.

    2007-01-01

    We present the results of an investigation of the sequence of events from the Sun to the Earth that ultimately led to the 88 major geomagnetic storms (defined by minimum Dst less than or equal to -100 nT) that occurred during 1996 - 2005. The results are achieved through cooperative efforts that originated at the Living with a Star (LWS) Coordinated Data- Analysis Workshop (CDAW) held at George Mason University in March 2005. Based on careful examination of the complete array of solar and in-situ solar wind observations, we have identified and characterized, for each major geomagnetic storm, the overall solar-interplanetary (solar-IP) source type, the time, velocity and angular width of the source coronal mass ejection (CME), the type and heliographic location of the solar source region, the structure of the transient solar wind flow with the storm-driving component specified, the arrival time of shock/disturbance, and the start and ending times of the corresponding IP CME (ICME). The storm-driving component, which possesses a prolonged and enhanced southward magnetic field (B(sub s)) may be an ICME, the sheath of shocked plasma (SH) upstream of an ICME, a corotating interaction region (CIR), or a combination of these structures. We classify the Solar-IP sources into three broad types: (1) S-type, in which the storm is associated with a single ICME and a single CME at the Sun; (2) M-type, in which the storm is associated with a complex solar wind flow produced by multiple interacting ICMEs arising from multiple halo CMEs launched from the Sun in a short period; (3) C-type, in which the storm is associated with a CIR formed at the leading edge of a high speed stream originating from a solar coronal hole (CH). For the 88 major storms, the S-type, M-type and C-type events number 53 (60%): 24 (27%) and 11 (13%), respectively. For the 85 events for which the surface source regions could be investigated, 54 (63%) of the storms originated in solar active regions, 10 (12

  7. Soft X-ray irradiance measured by the Solar Aspect Monitor on the Solar Dynamic Observatory Extreme ultraviolet Variability Experiment

    CERN Document Server

    Lin, C Y; Jones, A; Woodraska, D; Caspi, A; Woods, T N; Eparvier, F G; Wieman, S R; Didkovsky, L V

    2016-01-01

    The Solar Aspect Monitor (SAM) is a pinhole camera on the Extreme-ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE) aboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). SAM projects the solar disk onto the CCD through a metallic filter designed to allow only solar photons shortward of 7 nm to pass. Contamination from energetic particles and out-of-band irradiance is, however, significant in the SAM observations. We present a technique for isolating the 0.01--7 nm integrated irradiance from the SAM signal to produce the first results of broadband irradiance for the time period from May 2010 to May 2014. The results of this analysis agree with a similar data product from EVE's EUV SpectroPhotometer (ESP) to within 25%. We compare our results with measurements from the Student Nitric Oxide Explorer (SNOE) Solar X-ray Photometer (SXP) and the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) Solar EUV Experiment (SEE) at similar levels of solar activity. We show that the full-disk SAM broadband results compare we...

  8. Modeling Extreme Solar Energetic Particle Acceleration with Self-Consistent Wave Generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arthur, A. D.; le Roux, J. A.

    2015-12-01

    Observations of extreme solar energetic particle (SEP) events associated with coronal mass ejection driven shocks have detected particle energies up to a few GeV at 1 AU within the first ~10 minutes to 1 hour of shock acceleration. Whether or not acceleration by a single shock is sufficient in these events or if some combination of multiple shocks or solar flares is required is currently not well understood. Furthermore, the observed onset times of the extreme SEP events place the shock in the corona when the particles escape upstream. We have updated our focused transport theory model that has successfully been applied to the termination shock and traveling interplanetary shocks in the past to investigate extreme SEP acceleration in the solar corona. This model solves the time-dependent Focused Transport Equation including particle preheating due to the cross shock electric field and the divergence, adiabatic compression, and acceleration of the solar wind flow. Diffusive shock acceleration of SEPs is included via the first-order Fermi mechanism for parallel shocks. To investigate the effects of the solar corona on the acceleration of SEPs, we have included an empirical model for the plasma number density, temperature, and velocity. The shock acceleration process becomes highly time-dependent due to the rapid variation of these coronal properties with heliocentric distance. Additionally, particle interaction with MHD wave turbulence is modeled in terms of gyroresonant interactions with parallel propagating Alfven waves. However, previous modeling efforts suggest that the background amplitude of the solar wind turbulence is not sufficient to accelerate SEPs to extreme energies over the short time scales observed. To account for this, we have included the transport and self-consistent amplification of MHD waves by the SEPs through wave-particle gyroresonance. We will present the results of this extended model for a single fast quasi-parallel CME driven shock in the

  9. The magnitude and effects of extreme solar particle events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiggens Piers

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The solar energetic particle (SEP radiation environment is an important consideration for spacecraft design, spacecraft mission planning and human spaceflight. Herein is presented an investigation into the likely severity of effects of a very large Solar Particle Event (SPE on technology and humans in space. Fluences for SPEs derived using statistical models are compared to historical SPEs to verify their appropriateness for use in the analysis which follows. By combining environment tools with tools to model effects behind varying layers of spacecraft shielding it is possible to predict what impact a large SPE would be likely to have on a spacecraft in Near-Earth interplanetary space or geostationary Earth orbit. Also presented is a comparison of results generated using the traditional method of inputting the environment spectra, determined using a statistical model, into effects tools and a new method developed as part of the ESA SEPEM Project allowing for the creation of an effect time series on which statistics, previously applied to the flux data, can be run directly. The SPE environment spectra is determined and presented as energy integrated proton fluence (cm−2 as a function of particle energy (in MeV. This is input into the SHIELDOSE-2, MULASSIS, NIEL, GRAS and SEU effects tools to provide the output results. In the case of the new method for analysis, the flux time series is fed directly into the MULASSIS and GEMAT tools integrated into the SEPEM system. The output effect quantities include total ionising dose (in rads, non-ionising energy loss (MeV g−1, single event upsets (upsets/bit and the dose in humans compared to established limits for stochastic (or cancer-causing effects and tissue reactions (such as acute radiation sickness in humans given in grey-equivalent and sieverts respectively.

  10. A comparison of outer electron radiation belt dropouts during solar wind stream interface and magnetic cloud driven storms

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    O Ogunjobi; V Sivakumar; Z Mtumela

    2017-06-01

    Energetic electrons are trapped in the Earth’s radiation belts which occupy a toroidal region between 3 and 7 RE above the Earth’s surface. Rapid loss of electrons from the radiation belts is known as dropouts. The source and loss mechanisms regulating the radiation belts population are not yet understood entirely, particularly during geomagnetic storm times. Nevertheless, the dominant loss mechanism may require an event based study to be better observed. Utilizing multiple data sources from the year 1997–2007, this study identifies radiation belt electron dropouts which are ultimately triggered when solar wind stream interfaces (SI) arrived at Earth, or when magnetic clouds (MC) arrived. Using superposed epoch analysis (SEA) technique, a synthesis of multiple observations is performed to reveal loss mechanism which might, perhaps, be a major contributor to radiation belt losses under SI and MC driven storms. Results show an abrupt slower decaying precipitation of electron peak (about 3000 counts/sec) on SI arrival within 5.05

  11. A 3NM-64_3He added to LARC for Solar Extreme Event studies during solar cycle 24

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storini, M.; Signoretti, F.; Diego, P.; Re, F.; Laurenza, M.

    2009-02-01

    The Antarctic Laboratory for Cosmic Rays (LARC, acronym for Laboratorio Antartico per i Raggi Cosmici or Laboratorio Antártico para Rayos Cósmicos) operates on King George Island (South Shetlands). Since January 1991 a standard 6NM-64 detector has been recording continuous cosmic ray measurements and several Ground-Level Enhancements have been registered. Here we describe the different phases performed in Italy for the realization of a 3NM-64_3He detector, which started its measurements during the Italian XXII Antarctic Summer Campaign. Data recorded during solar activity cycle 24 will furnish an useful research tool for the next Solar Extreme Events.

  12. Multispacecraft observations of the terrestrial bow shock and magnetopause during extreme solar wind disturbances

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tatrallyay, M.; Erdos, G.; Nemeth, Z.

    2012-01-01

    Three events are discussed from the declining phase of the last solar cycle when the magnetopause and/or the bow shock were observed unusually close to the Earth due to major interplanetary disturbances. The observed extreme locations of the discontinuities are compared with the predictions of th...

  13. EIT: Solar corona synoptic observations from SOHO with an Extreme-ultraviolet Imaging Telescope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delaboudiniere, J. P.; Gabriel, A. H.; Artzner, G. E.; Michels, D. J.; Dere, K. P.; Howard, R. A.; Catura, R.; Stern, R.; Lemen, J.; Neupert, W.

    1988-01-01

    The Extreme-ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) of SOHO (solar and heliospheric observatory) will provide full disk images in emission lines formed at temperatures that map solar structures ranging from the chromospheric network to the hot magnetically confined plasma in the corona. Images in four narrow bandpasses will be obtained using normal incidence multilayered optics deposited on quadrants of a Ritchey-Chretien telescope. The EIT is capable of providing a uniform one arc second resolution over its entire 50 by 50 arc min field of view. Data from the EIT will be extremely valuable for identifying and interpreting the spatial and temperature fine structures of the solar atmosphere. Temporal analysis will provide information on the stability of these structures and identify dynamical processes. EIT images, issued daily, will provide the global corona context for aid in unifying the investigations and in forming the observing plans for SOHO coronal instruments.

  14. Historical changes in the Mississippi-Alabama barrier islands and the roles of extreme storms, sea level, and human activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, Robert A.

    2007-01-01

    An historical analysis of images and documents shows that the Mississippi-Alabama (MS-AL) barrier islands are undergoing rapid land loss and translocation. The barrier island chain formed and grew at a time when there was a surplus of sand in the alongshore sediment transport system, a condition that no longer prevails. The islands, except Cat, display alternating wide and marrow segments. Wide segments generally were products of low rates of inlet migration and spit elongation that resulted in well-defined ridges and swales formed by wave refraction along the inlet margins. In contrast, rapid rates of inlet migration and spit elongation under conditions of surplus sand produced low, narrow, straight barrier segments. Since the mid 1800s, average rates of land loss for all the MS islands accelerated systematically while maintaining consistency from island to island. In contrast, Dauphin Island, off the Alabama coast, gained land during the early 20th century and then began to lose land at rates comparable to those of the MS barriers. There is an inverse relationship between island size and percentage of land reduction for each barrier such that Horn Island lost 24% and Ship Island lost 64% of its area since the mid 1800s. Ship Island is particularly vulnerable to storm-driven land losses because topographic and bathymetric boundary conditions focus wave energy onto the island. The three predominant morphodynamic processes associated with land loss are: (1) unequal lateral transfer of sand related to greater updrift erosion compared to downdrift deposition, (2) barrier narrowing resulting from simultaneous erosion of the Gulf and Soundside shores, and (3) barrier segmentation related to storm breaching. The western three fourths of Dauphin Island are migrating landward as a result of storms that erode the Gulf shore, overwash the island, and deposit sand in Mississippi Sound. Petit Bois, Horn, and Ship Islands have migrated westward as a result of predominant

  15. Correction of SOHO CELIAS/SEM EUV Measurements saturated by extreme solar flare events

    CERN Document Server

    Didkovsky, L V; Jones, A R; Wieman, S; Tsurutani, B T; McMullin, D

    2006-01-01

    The solar irradiance in the Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) spectral bands has been observed with a 15 sec cadence by the SOHO Solar EUV Monitor (SEM) since 1995. During remarkably intense solar flares the SEM EUV measurements are saturated in the central (zero) order channel (0.1 -- 50.0 nm) by the flare soft X-ray and EUV flux. The first order EUV channel (26 -- 34 nm) is not saturated by the flare flux because of its limited bandwidth, but it is sensitive to the arrival of Solar Energetic Particles (SEP). While both channels detect nearly equal SEP fluxes, their contributions to the count rate is sensibly negligible in the zero order channel but must be accounted for and removed from the first channel count rate. SEP contribution to the measured SEM signals usually follows the EUV peak for the gradual solar flare events. Correcting the extreme solar flare SEM EUV measurements may reveal currently unclear relations between the flare magnitude, dynamics observed in different EUV spectral bands, and the measured Ea...

  16. Slowly varying component of extreme ultraviolet solar radiation and its relation to solar radio radiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, R. D.; Neupert, W. M.

    1974-01-01

    A study of the correlations between solar EUV line fluxes and solar radio fluxes has been carried out. A calibration for the Goddard Space Flight Center EUV spectrum is suggested. The results are used to obtain an equation for the absolute EUV flux for several lines in the 150- to 400-A region and the total flux of 81 intense lines in the region, the 2800-MHz radio flux being used as independent variable.

  17. New Extreme Trans-Neptunian Objects: Towards a Super-Earth in the Outer Solar System

    CERN Document Server

    Sheppard, Scott S

    2016-01-01

    We are conducting a wide and deep survey for extreme distant solar system objects. Our goal is to understand the high perihelion objects Sedna and 2012 VP113 and determine if an unknown massive planet exists in the outer solar system. The discovery of new extreme objects from our survey of some 1080 square degrees of sky to over 24th magnitude in the r-band are reported. Two of the new objects, 2014 SR349 and 2013 FT28, are extreme detached trans-Neptunian objects, which have semi-major axes greater than 150 AU and perihelia well beyond Neptune (q>40 AU). Both new objects have orbits with arguments of perihelia within the range of the clustering of this angle seen in the other known extreme objects. One of these objects, 2014 SR349, has a longitude of perihelion similar to the other extreme objects, but 2013 FT28, which may have more significant Neptune interactions, is about 180 degrees away or anti-aligned in its longitude of perihelion. We also discovered the first outer Oort cloud object with a perihelion...

  18. A comparative study of night-time enhancement of TEC at a low latitude station on storm and quiet nights including the local time, seasonal and solar activity dependence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Unnikrishnan

    Full Text Available The main characteristics of night-time enhancements in TEC during magnetic storms are compared with those during quiet nights for different seasons and solar activity conditions at Palehua, a low latitude station during the period 1980–1989. We find that the mean amplitude has both a seasonal and solar activity dependence: in winter, the values are higher for weak storms as compared to those during quiet nights and increase with an increase in solar activity. In summer, the mean amplitude values during weak storms and quiet nights are almost equal. But during equinox, the mean amplitude values for quiet nights are greater than those during weak storms. The mean half-amplitude duration is higher during weak storms as compared to that during quiet nights in summer. However, during winter and equinox, the durations are almost equal for both quiet and weak storm nights. For the mean half-amplitude duration, the quiet night values for all the seasons and equinoctial weak storm values increase with an increase in solar activity. The occurrence frequency (in percent of TEC enhancement during weak storms is greater than during quiet nights for all seasons. The mean amplitude, the mean half-amplitude duration and the occurrence frequency (in percent of TEC enhancement values are higher during major storms as compared to those during quiet nights. The above parameters have their highest values during pre-midnight hours. From the data analysed, this behaviour is true in the case of major storms also.

    Key words. Ionosphere (ionospheric disturbances; plasma convection Magnetospheric physics (storms and substorms

  19. The Extreme Ultraviolet Contributions to the Solar Irradiance Reference Spectrum (SIRS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chamberlin, P. C.; Woods, T. N.; Harder, J. W.; Hock, R. A.; Snow, M.

    2008-12-01

    The Whole Heliosphere Interval (WHI) was a coordinated effort with inputs from over 50 models and observatories, both satellite and ground based, to characterize the Sun and heliosphere during solar minimum conditions. The time period selected for this quiet Sun WHI campaign was April 10-16, 2008. One of the goals of the solar minimum WHI was to produce a definitive Solar Irradiance Reference Spectrum (SIRS) for quiet Sun conditions ranging in wavelength from 0.1 nm up to 2400 nm. During this WHI campaign on April 14, 2008, a sounding rocket was launched from White Sands Missile Range that observed the solar spectral irradiance in these solar minimum conditions in the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) wavelength range from 0.1-106 nm as well as the bright hydrogen Lyman alpha emission at 121.6 nm. The rocket observations from 6.0-106.0 nm and at 0.1 nm spectral resolution are the EUV input for the SIRS. These rocket EUV measurements are discussed following a brief introduction to the entire SIRS spectrum developed for the WHI campaign.

  20. Extreme changes to barrier islands along the central Gulf of Mexico coast during Hurricane Katrina: Chapter 5C in Science and the storms-the USGS response to the hurricanes of 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sallenger, Asbury; Wright, Wayne; Lillycrop, Jeff; Howd, Peter; Stockdon, Hilary; Guy, Kristy K.; Morgan, Karen

    2007-01-01

    Hurricane Katrina caused extreme changes to the barrier islands of the central Gulf of Mexico coast. Dauphin Island, Ala., migrated landward and stranded the remains of its oceanfront row homes in the sea. Chandeleur Islands, La., were completely stripped of their sand, leaving only marshy outcrops in the storm's wake.

  1. Assessing the continuity of the upland sediment cascade, fluvial geomorphic response of an upland river to an extreme flood event: Storm Desmond, Cumbria, UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joyce, Hannah; Hardy, Richard; Warburton, Jeff

    2017-04-01

    Hillslope erosion and accelerated lake sedimentation are often viewed as the source and main storage elements in the upland sediment cascade. However, the continuity of sediment transfer through intervening valley systems has rarely been evaluated during extreme events. Storm Desmond (4th - 6th December, 2015) produced record-breaking rainfall maximums in the UK: 341.4 mm rainfall was recorded in a 24 hour period at Honister Pass, Western Lake District, and 405 mm of rainfall was recorded in a 38 hour period at Thirlmere, central Lake District. The storm was the largest in a 150 year local rainfall series, and exceeded previous new records set in the 2005 and 2009 floods. During this exceptional event, rivers over topped flood defences, and caused damage to over 257 bridges, flooded over 5000 homes and businesses, and caused substantial geomorphic change along upland rivers. This research quantifies the geomorphic and sedimentary response to Storm Desmond along a regulated gravel-bed river: St John's Beck. St John's Beck (length 7.8 km) is a channelised low gradient river (0.005) downstream of Thirlmere Reservoir, which joins the River Greta, and flows through Keswick, where major flooding has occurred, before discharging into Bassenthwaite Lake. St John's Beck has a history of chronic sediment aggradation, erosion and reports of historic flooding date back to 1750. During Storm Desmond, riverbanks were eroded, coarse sediment was deposited across valuable farmland and access routes were destroyed, including a bridge and footpaths, disrupting local business. A sediment budget framework has been used to quantify geomorphic change and sedimentary characteristics of the event along St John's Beck. The volume and sediment size distribution of flood deposits, channel bars, tributary deposits, floodplain scour, riverbank erosion and in-channel bars were measured directly in the field and converted to mass using local estimates of coarse and fine sediment bulk densities

  2. RadWorks Storm Shelter Design for Solar Particle Event Shielding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Matthew A.; Cerro, Jeffrey; Clowdsley, Martha

    2013-01-01

    In order to enable long-duration human exploration beyond low-Earth orbit, the risks associated with exposure of astronaut crews to space radiation must be mitigated with practical and affordable solutions. The space radiation environment beyond the magnetosphere is primarily a combination of two types of radiation: galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE). While mitigating GCR exposure remains an open issue, reducing astronaut exposure to SPEs is achievable through material shielding because they are made up primarily of medium-energy protons. In order to ensure astronaut safety for long durations beyond low-Earth orbit, SPE radiation exposure must be mitigated. However, the increasingly demanding spacecraft propulsive performance for these ambitious missions requires minimal mass and volume radiation shielding solutions which leverage available multi-functional habitat structures and logistics as much as possible. This paper describes the efforts of NASA's RadWorks Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Project to design minimal mass SPE radiation shelter concepts leveraging available resources. Discussion items include a description of the shelter trade space, the prioritization process used to identify the four primary shelter concepts chosen for maturation, a summary of each concept's design features, a description of the radiation analysis process, and an assessment of the parasitic mass of each concept.

  3. Design of Two RadWorks Storm Shelters for Solar Particle Event Shielding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Matthew; Cerro, Jeffery; Latorella, Kara; Clowdsley, Martha; Watson, Judith; Albertson, Cindy; Norman, Ryan; Le Boffe, Vincent; Walker, Steven

    2014-01-01

    In order to enable long-duration human exploration beyond low-Earth orbit, the risks associated with exposure of astronaut crews to space radiation must be mitigated with practical and affordable solutions. The space radiation environment beyond the magnetosphere is primarily a combination of two types of radiation: galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE). While mitigating GCR exposure remains an open issue, reducing astronaut exposure to SPEs is achievable through material shielding because they are made up primarily of medium-energy protons. In order to ensure astronaut safety for long durations beyond low-Earth orbit, SPE radiation exposure must be mitigated. However, the increasingly demanding spacecraft propulsive performance for these ambitious missions requires minimal mass and volume radiation shielding solutions which leverage available multi-functional habitat structures and logistics as much as possible. This paper describes the efforts of NASA's RadWorks Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Project to design two minimal mass SPE radiation shelter concepts leveraging available resources: one based upon reconfiguring habitat interiors to create a centralized protection area and one based upon augmenting individual crew quarters with waterwalls and logistics. Discussion items include the design features of the concepts, a radiation analysis of their implementations, an assessment of the parasitic mass of each concept, and the result of a human in the loop evaluation performed to drive out design and operational issues.

  4. Variability of space climate and its extremes with successive solar cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Sandra; Hush, Phillip; Tindale, Elisabeth; Dunlop, Malcolm; Watkins, Nicholas

    2016-04-01

    Auroral geomagnetic indices coupled with in situ solar wind monitors provide a comprehensive data set, spanning several solar cycles. Space climate can be considered as the distribution of space weather. We can then characterize these observations in terms of changing space climate by quantifying how the statistical properties of ensembles of these observed variables vary between different phases of the solar cycle. We first consider the AE index burst distribution. Bursts are constructed by thresholding the AE time series; the size of a burst is the sum of the excess in the time series for each time interval over which the threshold is exceeded. The distribution of burst sizes is two component with a crossover in behaviour at thresholds ≈ 1000 nT. Above this threshold, we find[1] a range over which the mean burst size is almost constant with threshold for both solar maxima and minima. The burst size distribution of the largest events has a functional form which is exponential. The relative likelihood of these large events varies from one solar maximum and minimum to the next. If the relative overall activity of a solar maximum/minimum can be estimated, these results then constrain the likelihood of extreme events of a given size for that solar maximum/minimum. We next develop and apply a methodology to quantify how the full distribution of geomagnetic indices and upstream solar wind observables are changing between and across different solar cycles. This methodology[2] estimates how different quantiles of the distribution, or equivalently, how the return times of events of a given size, are changing. [1] Hush, P., S. C. Chapman, M. W. Dunlop, and N. W. Watkins (2015), Robust statistical properties of the size of large burst events in AE, Geophys. Res. Lett.,42 doi:10.1002/2015GL066277 [2] Chapman, S. C., D. A. Stainforth, N. W. Watkins, (2013) On estimating long term local climate trends , Phil. Trans. Royal Soc., A,371 20120287 DOI:10.1098/rsta.2012.0287

  5. The prediction and validation of spatial variation of storm tide height along the coastline of North Somerset, U.K. during extreme events typical of coastal flooding using Synthetic Aperture Radar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Matt; Schumann, Guy; Horsburgh, Kevin; Bates, Paul

    2010-05-01

    Inundation modellers are faced with the problem of determining coastal flood risk in a future climate in order to aid planners, policy makers and engineers. Current research suggests a major source of uncertainty is the water-level height along the coastline which is used to force 2D inundation models of the region studied. Recent research has indicated that the spatial variation of the water-level during a storm (storm tide) has a predictable spatial relationship based upon historical storm events, however, this new proposed method needs to be validated. Detailed observations of a storm tide along a coastline are very rare, but it is believed that Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) can be employed with the "water-line method" to provide this detailed dataset of observed water heights. This project is accessing the degree to which current space-borne SAR imagery can be used to determine detailed water-level heights along a coastline during an extreme water-level event typical of a coastal flood, and then employing this dataset to validate a new spatial storm tide variation prediction method. Future inundation risk models may benefit from this research with an improved and more accurate forcing condition, but also oceanographers and coastal scientists can employ the SAR imagery-derived water level approach developed within this work to aid storm surge and coastal inundation research.

  6. NRL-ATM extreme ultraviolet solar image TV monitor flown on Skylab

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crockett, W. R.; Purcell, J. D.; Schumacher, R. J.; Tousey, R.; Patterson, N. P.

    1977-01-01

    An instrument for recording extreme ultraviolet television images of the sun was flown in the Apollo Telescope Mount on Skylab. Solar radiation in the 171-630 A wavelength range, defined by the transmission band of three thin-film aluminum filters, was focused onto a p-quaterphenyl photon conversion layer by a platinum-coated mirror at normal incidence. The conversion layer was attached to the faceplate of a low light level SEC vidicon. An onboard video monitor enabled the Skylab crews to observe the images in real-time and to identify and follow the development of solar features. Images were also transmitted to the mission control center, where they were used in planning the ATM observing schedule.

  7. Multispacecraft observations of the terrestrial bow shock and magnetopause during extreme solar wind disturbances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Tátrallyay

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Three events are discussed from the declining phase of the last solar cycle when the magnetopause and/or the bow shock were observed unusually close to the Earth due to major interplanetary disturbances. The observed extreme locations of the discontinuities are compared with the predictions of three magnetopause and four bow shock models which describe them in considerably different ways using statistical methods based on observations. A new 2-D magnetopause model is introduced (based on Verigin et al., 2009 which takes into account the pressure of the compressed magnetosheath field raised by the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF component transverse to the solar wind flow. The observed magnetopause crossings could be predicted with a reasonable accuracy (0.1–0.2 RE by one of the presented models at least. For geosynchronous magnetopause crossings observed by the GOES satellites, (1 the new model provided the best predictions when the IMF was extremely large having a large negative Bz component, and (2 the predictions of the model of Shue et al. (1998 agreed best with the observations when the solar wind dynamic pressure was extremely large. The magnetopause crossings close to the cusp observed by the Cluster spacecraft were best predicted by the 3-D model of Lin et al. (2010. The applied empirical bow shock models and the 3-D semi-empiric bow shock model combined with magnetohydrodynamic (MHD solution proved to be insufficient for predicting the observed unusual bow shock locations during large interplanetary disturbances. The results of a global 3-D MHD model were in good agreement with the Cluster observations on 17 January 2005, but they did not predict the bow shock crossings on 31 October 2003.

  8. Radar observations of a tornado-spawning storm complex in Southeast Brazil and Meso-Eta forecasts of this extreme event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Held, Gerhard; Gomes, Jorge Luis; Gomes, Ana Maria

    2014-05-01

    During the early afternoon of 22 September 2013, severe storms, accompanied by large hail, damaging winds, heavy precipitation and intense lightning activity, devastated a region in the southeast State of São Paulo. Several extremely intense storm cells moved at up to 80 km/h east-southeastwards, ahead of a strong cold front approaching through Paraná, which created extremely unstable conditions that led to deep convection and overshooting towers up to 18 km. At least one of theses cells spawned a tornado when it reached the town of Taquarituba. The tornado traversed the town from south-southwest to north-northeast and was responsible for 63 people injured and two fatalities. Based on the damage reported, it was at least an F3 according to the Fujita scale. The objective of the present study is to characterize this severe thunderstorm event, using different types of data, and to evaluate the forecasts provided by the Meso-Eta model centered over Bauru. The pre-frontal and frontal convective cells were tracked throughout their life-time by IPMet's Doppler radars, which cover the western and central regions of the State São Paulo, as well as northern Paraná State. Radar volume scans, generated every 7,5 min, were processed with the TITAN (Thunderstorm Identification, Tracking, Analysis and Nowcasting) Software, yielding the following preliminary results: as the storm complex traversed the Paranapanema River, which forms the border between the two states, the cells intensified drastically and shortly before reaching the town of Taquarituba, that particular cell displayed extremely strong radial shear just above the cloud base (about -20 to +35 m/s), which led to the formation of a deep meso-cyclone, from which the tornado spawned and touched down at around 14:30 LT (LT=UT-3h). Cell properties calculated by TITAN showed a drastic increase of VIL (Vertically Integrated Liquid water content) from 13:52 LT (7,9 kg/m2) to a maximum of 61,8 kg/m2 at 14:15 LT. From 14

  9. Extreme Environment Capable, Modular and Scalable Power Processing Unit for Solar Electric Propulsion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, Gregory A.; Iannello, Christopher J.; Chen, Yuan; Hunter, Don J.; Del Castillo, Linda; Bradley, Arthur T.; Stell, Christopher; Mojarradi, Mohammad M.

    2013-01-01

    This paper is to present a concept of a modular and scalable High Temperature Boost (HTB) Power Processing Unit (PPU) capable of operating at temperatures beyond the standard military temperature range. The various extreme environments technologies are also described as the fundamental technology path to this concept. The proposed HTB PPU is intended for power processing in the area of space solar electric propulsion, where the reduction of in-space mass and volume are desired, and sometimes even critical, to achieve the goals of future space flight missions. The concept of the HTB PPU can also be applied to other extreme environment applications, such as geothermal and petroleum deep-well drilling, where higher temperature operation is required.

  10. The Weather of the Future: Heat Waves, Extreme Storms, and Other Scenes from a Climate-Changed Planet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cullen, H. M.

    2010-12-01

    In The Weather of the Future, Dr. Heidi Cullen puts a vivid face on climate change, offering a new way of seeing this phenomenon not just as an event set to happen in the distant future but as something happening right now in our own backyards. Arguing that we must connect the weather of today with the climate change of tomorrow, Cullen combines the latest research from scientists on the ground with state-of-the-art climate model projections to create climate-change scenarios for seven of the most at-risk locations around the world. From the Central Valley of California, where coming droughts will jeopardize the entire state’s water supply, to Greenland, where warmer temperatures will give access to mineral wealth buried beneath ice sheets for millennia, Cullen illustrates how, if left unabated, climate change will transform every corner of the world by midcentury. What emerges is a mosaic of changing weather patterns that collectively spell out the range of risks posed by global warming—whether it’s New York City, whose infrastructure is extremely vulnerable even to a relatively weak Category 3 hurricane or to Bangladesh, a country so low-lying that millions of people could become climate refugees thanks to rising sea levels. The Weather of the Future makes climate change local, showing how no two regions of the country or the world will be affected in quite the same way and demonstrating that melting ice is just the beginning.

  11. Dynamics of the perfect storms: La Niña and Australia's extreme rainfall and floods of 1974 and 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whelan, Jennifer; Frederiksen, Jorgen S.

    2017-06-01

    An ensemble of general circulation model simulations and dynamical mode analyses of important weather systems contributing to Australia's severe rainfall and flooding events, in January 1974 and January 2011, are described. Dispersion relation techniques have also been used to extract the leading weather systems in observations and general circulation model (GCM) simulations, including Kelvin waves and intraseasonal oscillations. We find that the severe rainfall and flooding events over northern Australia in January 1974 and January 2011 coincided with significant intraseasonal oscillation and Kelvin wave activity that constructively interfered on the critical days of very high rainfall. The CSIRO Mk3L spectral GCM has been used to simulate both events. Particular simulations from 1870 to 2011, forced by observed SSTs and increasing CO2, agree well with observations in both the timing and patterns of these disturbances. The growth and structures of the leading dynamical normal modes have also been determined within a two-level primitive equation instability model. Our results show explosively growing intraseasonal oscillations and atmospheric Kelvin waves convectively coupled in the Australian monsoonal region. Monsoon disturbances, associated blocking over the Tasman Sea, and tropical-extratropical interactions also significantly contributed to the heavy rainfall. Model simulations and analyses of the dynamical modes are consistent with the synoptic situation seen in observational data for both severe precipitation events, and provide a more complete description of the reasons for the extreme impact of both events.

  12. Magnetic Properties of Metric Noise Storms Associated with Coronal Mass Ejections

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ya-Yuan Wen; Jing-Xiu Wang; Yu-Zong Zhang

    2007-01-01

    Using Nan(c)ay Radioheliograph (NRH) imaging observations, combined with SOHO/Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) magnetogram observations and coronal magnetic field extrapolation, we studied the magnetic nature of metric noise storms that are associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Four events are selected: the events of 2000 July 14,2001 April 26, 2002 August 16 and 2001 March 28. The identified noise storm sources cover or partially cover the active regions (ARs), but the centers of storm sources are offset from the ARs. Using extrapolated magnetic field lines, we find that the noise storm sources trace the boundary between the open and closed field lines. We demonstrate that the disappearance of noise storm source is followed by the appearance of the burst source. The burst sources spread on the solar disk and their distributions correspond to the extent of the CME in LASCO C2 field of view. All the SOHO/Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) dimmings associated with noise storm sources are located at the periphery of noise storms where the magnetic lines of force were previously closed and low-lying. When the closed field becomes partially or fully open, the basic configurations of noise storm sources are changed, then the noise storm sources are no longer observed. These observations provide the information that the variations of noise storms manifest the restructuring or reconfiguring of the coronal magnetic field.

  13. Extreme total solar irradiance due to cloud enhancement at sea level of the NE Atlantic coast of Brazil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piacentini, Ruben D. [Instituto de Fisica Rosario (CONICET-Universidad Nacional de Rosario), 27 de Febrero 210bis, 2000 Rosario (Argentina); Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Ingenieria y Agrimensura, Universidad Nacional de Rosario, Pellegrini 250, 2000 Rosario (Argentina); Salum, Graciela M. [Instituto de Fisica Rosario (CONICET-Universidad Nacional de Rosario), 27 de Febrero 210bis, 2000 Rosario (Argentina); Facultad Regional Concepcion del Uruguay, Universidad Tecnologica Nacional, Concepcion del Uruguay (Argentina); Fraidenraich, Naum; Tiba, Chigueru [Grupo de Pesquisas em Fontes Alternativas de Energia, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Av. Prof. Luiz Freire, 1000 - 50.740-540, Recife, PE (Brazil)

    2011-01-15

    Extraterrestrial total solar irradiance, usually called Solar Constant, is attenuated by the atmosphere in different proportions, depending mainly on solar zenith angle and altitude of the measurement point. In this work, it is presented very high and extreme horizontal plane measurements of global solar irradiance that in some days overpassed the Solar Constant corrected by the actual Sun-Earth distance (CSC). They were obtained at sea level of the intertropical Atlantic coast, in the city of Recife, Brazil, in the period February 2008-January 2009. Extreme total solar irradiance values larger than CSC were measured during 3.4% of the days of the total registered period. This percentage increases to 7.4% for global solar irradiance within 95.1-100% of the CSC and to 15.3% within 90.1-95% of the CSC. The largest extreme total solar irradiance value, 1477 {+-} 30 W/m{sup 2}, was registered the 28th of March 2008 at 11:34 local time (UT - 3h). It overpassed by 7.9% the CSC value for this day (1369.4 W/m{sup 2}) and by 42.3% the estimated value of the clear sky Iqbal C radiation model (1037.7 W/m{sup 2}). The observation of extreme values should be taken into account in the study of solar radiation effects related to materials exposed to the outside, UV index and biological effects, among others. Also, the detailed knowledge of this interesting effect may contribute significantly to clarify physical aspects about the interaction of global solar radiation with the ecosystem and climate change. (author)

  14. Can we colonize the solar system? Human biology and survival in the extreme space environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Launius, Roger D

    2010-09-01

    Throughout the history of the space age the dominant vision for the future has been great spaceships plying the solar system, and perhaps beyond, moving living beings from one planet to another. Spacesuited astronauts would carry out exploration, colonization, and settlement as part of a relentlessly forward looking movement of humanity beyond Earth. As time has progressed this image has not changed appreciably even as the full magnitude of the challenges it represents have become more and more apparent. This essay explores the issues associated with the human movement beyond Earth and raises questions about whether humanity will ever be able to survive in the extreme environment of space and the other bodies of the solar system. This paper deals with important historical episodes as well as wider conceptual issues about life in space. Two models of expansion beyond Earth are discussed: (1) the movement of microbes and other types of life on Earth that can survive the space environment and (2) the modification of humans into cyborgs for greater capability to survive in the extreme environments encountered beyond this planet.

  15. Soft X ray/extreme ultraviolet images of the solar atmosphere with normal incidence multilayer optics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindblom, Joakim Fredrik

    The first high resolution Soft X-Ray/Extreme Ultraviolet (XUV) images of the Sun with normal incidence multilayer optics were obtained by the Standford/MSFC Rocket X-Ray Spectroheliograph on 23 Oct. 1987. Numerous images at selected wavelengths from 8 to 256 A were obtained simultaneously by the diverse array of telescopes flown on-board the experiment. These telescopes included single reflection normal incidence multilayer systems (Herschelian), double reflection multilayer systems (Cassegrain), a grazing incidence mirror system (Wolter-Schwarzschild), and hybrid systems using normal incidence multilayer optics in conjunction with the grazing incidence primary (Wolter-Cassegrain). Filters comprised of approximately 1700 A thick aluminum supported on a nickel mesh were used to transmit the soft x ray/EUV radiation while preventing the intense visible light emission of the Sun from fogging the sensitive experimental T-grain photographic emulsions. These systems yielded high resolution soft x ray/EUV images of the solar corona and transition region, which reveal magnetically confined loops of hot solar plasma, coronal plumes, polar coronal holes, supergranulation, and features associated with overlying cool prominences. The development, testing, and operation of the experiments, and the results from the flight are described. The development of a second generation experiment, the Multi-Spectral Solar Telescope Array, which is scheduled to fly in the summer of 1990, and a recently approved Space Station experiment, the Ultra-High Resolution XUV Spectroheliograph, which is scheduled to fly in 1996 are also described.

  16. Modeling and characterization of extremely thin absorber (eta) solar cells based on ZnO nanowires.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mora-Seró, Iván; Giménez, Sixto; Fabregat-Santiago, Francisco; Azaceta, Eneko; Tena-Zaera, Ramón; Bisquert, Juan

    2011-04-21

    Extremely thin absorber (eta)-solar cells based on ZnO nanowires sensitized with a thin layer of CdSe have been prepared, using CuSCN as hole transporting material. Samples with significantly different photovoltaic performance have been analyzed and a general model of their behavior was obtained. We have used impedance spectroscopy to model the device discriminating the series resistance, the role of the hole conducting material CuSCN, and the interface process. Correlating the impedance analysis with the microstructural properties of the solar cell interfaces, a good description of the solar cell performance is obtained. The use of thick CdSe layers leads to high recombination resistances, increasing the open circuit voltage of the devices. However, there is an increase of the internal recombination in thick light absorbing layers that also inhibit a good penetration of CuSCN, reducing the photocurrent. The model will play an important role on the optimization of these devices. This analysis could have important implications for the modeling and optimization of all-solid devices using a sensitizing configuration.

  17. The Storm in The Storm

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王颖

    2015-01-01

    The Storm tells a story about sexual issues that two former lovers met in a stormy day and spent a short period of happy time together. In this story, the storm plays an important part,which is just like the thread that joins the plots together, both in natural storm and in feeling storm. It is the driving force behind the story and the affair. As the storm begins climaxes and ends so do the affair and the story. From the appearance, the storm has no harm. Actually, the storm in feeling is bad for the marriage, even in current times, so the story make people speculate the loyalty to the marriage.

  18. Occurrence of extreme solar particle events: Assessment from historical proxy data

    CERN Document Server

    Usoskin, I G

    2012-01-01

    The probability of occurrence of extreme solar particle events (SPEs) with the fluence of (>30 MeV) protons F30>10^{10} cm^{-2} is evaluated based on data of cosmogenic isotopes 14C and 10Be in terrestrial archives centennial-millennial time scales. Four potential candidates with F30=(1-1.5)x10^{10} cm^{-2} and no events with F30>2x10^{10} cm^{-2} are identified since 1400 AD in the annually resolved 10Be data. A strong SPE related to the Carrington flare of 1859 AD is not supported by the data. For the last 11400 years, 19 SPE candidates with F30=(1-3)x10^{10} cm^{-2} are found and clearly no event with F30>5x10^{10} cm^{-2} (50-fold the SPE of 23-Feb-1956) occurring. This values serve as an observational upper limit for the strength of SPE on the time scale of tens of millennia. Two events, ca. 780 and 1460 AD, appear in different data series making them strong candidates to extreme SPEs. We built a distribution of the occurrence probability of extreme SPEs, providing a new strict observational constraint. ...

  19. Highly relativistic radiation belt electron acceleration, transport, and loss: Large solar storm events of March and June 2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, D N; Jaynes, A N; Kanekal, S G; Foster, J C; Erickson, P J; Fennell, J F; Blake, J B; Zhao, H; Li, X; Elkington, S R; Henderson, M G; Reeves, G D; Spence, H E; Kletzing, C A; Wygant, J R

    2016-07-01

    Two of the largest geomagnetic storms of the last decade were witnessed in 2015. On 17 March 2015, a coronal mass ejection-driven event occurred with a Dst (storm time ring current index) value reaching -223 nT. On 22 June 2015 another strong storm (Dst reaching -204 nT) was recorded. These two storms each produced almost total loss of radiation belt high-energy (E ≳ 1 MeV) electron fluxes. Following the dropouts of radiation belt fluxes there were complex and rather remarkable recoveries of the electrons extending up to nearly 10 MeV in kinetic energy. The energized outer zone electrons showed a rich variety of pitch angle features including strong "butterfly" distributions with deep minima in flux at α = 90°. However, despite strong driving of outer zone earthward radial diffusion in these storms, the previously reported "impenetrable barrier" at L ≈ 2.8 was pushed inward, but not significantly breached, and no E ≳ 2.0 MeV electrons were seen to pass through the radiation belt slot region to reach the inner Van Allen zone. Overall, these intense storms show a wealth of novel features of acceleration, transport, and loss that are demonstrated in the present detailed analysis.

  20. Solar cosmic rays during the extremely high ground level enhancement on 23 February 1956

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Belov

    2005-09-01

    Full Text Available The 23 February 1956 ground level enhancement of the solar cosmic ray intensity (GLE05 is the most famous among the proton events observed since 1942. But we do not have a great deal of information on this event due to the absence of solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field measurements at that time. Furthermore, there were no X-Ray or gamma observations and the information on the associated flare is limited. Cosmic ray data was obtained exclusively by ground level detectors of small size and in some cases of a non-standard design. In the present work all available data from neutron monitors operating in 1956 were analyzed, in order to develop a model of the solar cosmic ray behavior during the event. The time-dependent characteristics of the cosmic ray energy spectrum, cosmic ray anisotropy, and differential and integral fluxes have been evaluated utilizing different isotropic and anisotropic models. It is shown that the most outstanding features of this proton enhancement were a narrow and extremely intense beam of ultra-relativistic particles arriving at Earth just after the onset and the unusually high maximum solar particle energy. However, the contribution of this beam to the overall solar particle density and fluency was not significant because of its very short duration and small width. Our estimate of the integral flux for particles with energies over 100 MeV places this event above all subsequent. Perhaps the number of accelerated low energy particles was closer to a record value, but these particles passed mainly to the west of Earth.

    Many features of this GLE are apparently explained by the peculiarity of the particle interplanetary propagation from a remote (near the limb source. The quality of the available neutron monitor data does not allow us to be certain of some details; these may be cleared up by the incorporation into the analysis of data from muonic telescopes and ionization chambers

  1. Holocene ENSO-related cyclic storms recorded by magnetic minerals in speleothems of central China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Zongmin; Feinberg, Joshua M; Xie, Shucheng; Bourne, Mark D; Huang, Chunju; Hu, Chaoyong; Cheng, Hai

    2017-01-31

    Extreme hydrologic events such as storms and floods have the potential to severely impact modern human society. However, the frequency of storms and their underlying mechanisms are limited by a paucity of suitable proxies, especially in inland areas. Here we present a record of speleothem magnetic minerals to reconstruct paleoprecipitation, including storms, in the eastern Asian monsoon area over the last 8.6 ky. The geophysical parameter IRMsoft-flux represents the flux of soil-derived magnetic minerals preserved in stalagmite HS4, which we correlate with rainfall amount and intensity. IRMsoft-flux exhibits relatively higher values before 6.7 ky and after 3.4 ky and lower values in the intervening period, consistent with regional hydrological changes observed in independent records. Abrupt enhancements in the flux of pedogenic magnetite in the stalagmite agree well with the timing of known regional paleofloods and with equatorial El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) patterns, documenting the occurrence of ENSO-related storms in the Holocene. Spectral power analyses reveal that the storms occur on a significant 500-y cycle, coincident with periodic solar activity and ENSO variance, showing that reinforced (subdued) storms in central China correspond to reduced (increased) solar activity and amplified (damped) ENSO. Thus, the magnetic minerals in speleothem HS4 preserve a record of the cyclic storms controlled by the coupled atmosphere-oceanic circulation driven by solar activity.

  2. Holocene ENSO-related cyclic storms recorded by magnetic minerals in speleothems of central China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Zongmin; Feinberg, Joshua M.; Xie, Shucheng; Bourne, Mark D.; Huang, Chunju; Hu, Chaoyong; Cheng, Hai

    2017-01-01

    Extreme hydrologic events such as storms and floods have the potential to severely impact modern human society. However, the frequency of storms and their underlying mechanisms are limited by a paucity of suitable proxies, especially in inland areas. Here we present a record of speleothem magnetic minerals to reconstruct paleoprecipitation, including storms, in the eastern Asian monsoon area over the last 8.6 ky. The geophysical parameter IRMsoft-flux represents the flux of soil-derived magnetic minerals preserved in stalagmite HS4, which we correlate with rainfall amount and intensity. IRMsoft-flux exhibits relatively higher values before 6.7 ky and after 3.4 ky and lower values in the intervening period, consistent with regional hydrological changes observed in independent records. Abrupt enhancements in the flux of pedogenic magnetite in the stalagmite agree well with the timing of known regional paleofloods and with equatorial El Niño‑Southern Oscillation (ENSO) patterns, documenting the occurrence of ENSO-related storms in the Holocene. Spectral power analyses reveal that the storms occur on a significant 500-y cycle, coincident with periodic solar activity and ENSO variance, showing that reinforced (subdued) storms in central China correspond to reduced (increased) solar activity and amplified (damped) ENSO. Thus, the magnetic minerals in speleothem HS4 preserve a record of the cyclic storms controlled by the coupled atmosphere‑oceanic circulation driven by solar activity.

  3. OCCURRENCE OF EXTREME SOLAR PARTICLE EVENTS: ASSESSMENT FROM HISTORICAL PROXY DATA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Usoskin, Ilya G. [Sodankylae Geophysical Observatory (Oulu unit) and Department of Physical Sciences, University of Oulu, FIN-90014 Oulu (Finland); Kovaltsov, Gennady A., E-mail: ilya.usoskin@oulu.fi [Ioffe Physical-Technical Institute of RAS, 194021 St. Petersburg (Russian Federation)

    2012-09-20

    The probability of occurrence of extreme solar particle events (SPEs) with proton fluence (>30 MeV) F{sub 30} {>=} 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} is evaluated based on data on the cosmogenic isotopes {sup 14}C and {sup 10}Be in terrestrial archives covering centennial-millennial timescales. Four potential candidates with F{sub 30} = (1-1.5) Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} and no events with F{sub 30} > 2 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} are identified since 1400 AD in the annually resolved {sup 10}Be data. A strong SPE related to the Carrington flare of 1859 AD is not supported by the data. For the last 11,400 years, 19 SPE candidates with F{sub 30} = (1-3) Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} are found and clearly no event with F{sub 30} > 5 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} (50 times the SPE of 1956 February 23) has occurred. These values serve as observational upper limits on the strength of SPEs on the timescale of tens of millennia. Two events, ca. 780 and 1460 AD, appear in different data series making them strong candidates for extreme SPEs. We build a distribution of the occurrence probability of extreme SPEs, providing a new strict observational constraint. Practical limits can be set as F{sub 30} Almost-Equal-To 1, 2-3, and 5 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} for occurrence probabilities Almost-Equal-To 10{sup -2}, 10{sup -3}, and 10{sup -4} yr{sup -1}, respectively. Because of the uncertainties, our results should be interpreted as a conservative upper limit on the SPE occurrence near Earth. The mean solar energetic particle (SEP) flux is evaluated as Almost-Equal-To 40 (cm{sup 2} s){sup -1}, in agreement with estimates from lunar rocks. On average, extreme SPEs contribute about 10% to the total SEP fluence.

  4. Pushing the Envelope of Extreme Space Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesnell, W. D.

    2014-12-01

    Extreme Space Weather events are large solar flares or geomagnetic storms, which can cost billions of dollars to recover from. We have few examples of such events; the Carrington Event (the solar superstorm) is one of the few that had superlatives in three categories: size of solar flare, drop in Dst, and amplitude of aa. Kepler observations show that stars similar to the Sun can have flares releasing millions of times more energy than an X-class flare. These flares and the accompanying coronal mass ejections could strongly affect the atmosphere surrounding a planet. What level of solar activity would be necessary to strongly affect the atmosphere of the Earth? Can we map out the envelope of space weather along the evolution of the Sun? What would space weather look like if the Sun stopped producing a magnetic field? To what extreme should Space Weather go? These are the extremes of Space Weather explored in this talk.

  5. Materials research in the solar furnace. Materials testing in extreme conditions; Materialforschung im Sonnenofen. Werkstoffpruefung unter extremen Bedingungen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schmuecker, M. [DLR-Institut fuer Werkstoff-Forschung, Koeln-Porz (Germany)

    2005-01-01

    Extreme temperatures can be achieved with concentrated solar radiation. High heating and cooling rates are possible, and furnace walls are not required. This makes the solar furnace a unique tool for testing of high-temperature materials as cooperations with the DLR Institute of Materials Research have shown. (orig.) [German] Mit konzentrierter Sonnenstrahlung koennen extreme Temperaturen erreicht werden. Hohe Aufheiz- und Abkuehlraten sind moeglich; im Allgemeinen kann auf begrenzende Ofenwandungen verzichtet werden. Damit stellt der Sonnenofen, in Verbindung mit einer geeigneten Mess- und Regeltechnik, ein einzigartiges Pruefwerkzeug fuer Hochtemperaturwerkstoffe dar, wie Kooperationen mit dem DLR-Institut fuer Werkstoff-Forschung gezeigt haben. (orig.)

  6. Extreme ultraviolet imaging of three-dimensional magnetic reconnection in a solar eruption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, J Q; Cheng, X; Ding, M D; Guo, Y; Priest, E R; Parnell, C E; Edwards, S J; Zhang, J; Chen, P F; Fang, C

    2015-06-26

    Magnetic reconnection, a change of magnetic field connectivity, is a fundamental physical process in which magnetic energy is released explosively, and it is responsible for various eruptive phenomena in the universe. However, this process is difficult to observe directly. Here, the magnetic topology associated with a solar reconnection event is studied in three dimensions using the combined perspectives of two spacecraft. The sequence of extreme ultraviolet images clearly shows that two groups of oppositely directed and non-coplanar magnetic loops gradually approach each other, forming a separator or quasi-separator and then reconnecting. The plasma near the reconnection site is subsequently heated from ∼1 to ≥5 MK. Shortly afterwards, warm flare loops (∼3 MK) appear underneath the hot plasma. Other observational signatures of reconnection, including plasma inflows and downflows, are unambiguously revealed and quantitatively measured. These observations provide direct evidence of magnetic reconnection in a three-dimensional configuration and reveal its origin.

  7. SiC/Tb and Si/Tb multilayer coatings for extreme ultraviolet solar imaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kjornrattanawanich, Benjawan; Windt, David L; Seely, John F; Uspenskii, Yurii A

    2006-03-10

    Narrowband SiC/Tb and Si/Tb multilayers are fabricated with as much as a 23% normal-incidence reflectance near a 60 nm wavelength and spectral bandpass (FWHM) values of 9.4 and 6.5 nm, respectively. The structural properties of the films are investigated using extreme ultraviolet and x-ray reflectometry and transmission electron microscopy. Thermal stability is investigated in films annealed to as high as 300 degrees C. Because of their superior thermal stability, relatively high reflectance, and narrower spectral bandpass, Si/Tb multilayers are identified as optimal candidates for solar physics imaging applications, where the peak response can be tuned to important emission lines such as O v near 63.0 nm and Mg x near 61.0 nm. We describe our experimental procedures and results, discuss the implications of our findings, and outline prospects for improved performance.

  8. Solar Probe Plus MAG Sensor Thermal Design for Low Heater Power and Extreme Thermal Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Michael K.

    2015-01-01

    The heater power available for the Solar Probe Plus FIELDS MAG sensor is less than half of the heritage value for other missions. Nominally the MAG sensors are in the spacecraft's umbra. In the worst hot case, approximately 200 spacecraft communication downlinks, up to 10 hours each, are required at 0.7 AU. These downlinks require the spacecraft to slew 45 deg. about the Y-axis, exposing the MAG sensors and boom to sunlight. This paper presents the thermal design to meet the MAG sensor thermal requirements in the extreme thermal environment and with low heater power. A thermal balance test on the MAG sensor engineering model has verified the thermal design and correlated the thermal model for flight temperature predictions.

  9. Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging of Three-dimensional Magnetic Reconnection in a Solar Eruption

    CERN Document Server

    Sun, J Q; Ding, M D; Guo, Y; Priest, E R; Parnell, C E; Edwards, S J; Zhang, J; Chen, P F; Fang, C

    2015-01-01

    Magnetic reconnection, a change of magnetic field connectivity, is a fundamental physical process in which magnetic energy is released explosively. It is responsible for various eruptive phenomena in the universe. However, this process is difficult to observe directly. Here, the magnetic topology associated with a solar reconnection event is studied in three dimensions (3D) using the combined perspectives of two spacecraft. The sequence of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) images clearly shows that two groups of oppositely directed and non-coplanar magnetic loops gradually approach each other, forming a separator or quasi-separator and then reconnecting. The plasma near the reconnection site is subsequently heated from $\\sim$1 to $\\ge$5 MK. Shortly afterwards, warm flare loops ($\\sim$3 MK) appear underneath the hot plasma. Other observational signatures of reconnection, including plasma inflows and downflows, are unambiguously revealed and quantitatively measured. These observations provide direct evidence of magneti...

  10. Extreme Learning Machine and Moving Least Square Regression Based Solar Panel Vision Inspection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heng Liu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, learning based machine intelligence has aroused a lot of attention across science and engineering. Particularly in the field of automatic industry inspection, the machine learning based vision inspection plays a more and more important role in defect identification and feature extraction. Through learning from image samples, many features of industry objects, such as shapes, positions, and orientations angles, can be obtained and then can be well utilized to determine whether there is defect or not. However, the robustness and the quickness are not easily achieved in such inspection way. In this work, for solar panel vision inspection, we present an extreme learning machine (ELM and moving least square regression based approach to identify solder joint defect and detect the panel position. Firstly, histogram peaks distribution (HPD and fractional calculus are applied for image preprocessing. Then an ELM-based defective solder joints identification is discussed in detail. Finally, moving least square regression (MLSR algorithm is introduced for solar panel position determination. Experimental results and comparisons show that the proposed ELM and MLSR based inspection method is efficient not only in detection accuracy but also in processing speed.

  11. On the Nature of the Extreme-Ultraviolet Late Phase of Solar Flares

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Y; Guo, Y; Dai, Y

    2014-01-01

    The extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) late phase of solar flares is a second peak of warm coronal emissions (e.g., Fe XVI) for many minutes to a few hours after the GOES soft X-ray peak. It was first observed by the EUV Variability Experiment (EVE) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). The late phase emission originates from a second set of longer loops (late phase loops) that are higher than the main flaring loops. It is suggested as being caused by either additional heating or long-lasting cooling. In this paper, we study the role of long-lasting cooling and additional heating in producing the EUV late phase using the "enthalpy-based thermal evolution of loops" (EBTEL) model. We find that a long cooling process in late phase loops can well explain the presence of the EUV late phase emission, but we cannot exclude the possibility of additional heating in the decay phase. Moreover, we provide two preliminary methods based on the UV and EUV emissions from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on board SDO to...

  12. Projected sea level rise and changes in extreme storm surge and wave events during the 21st century in the region of Singapore

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cannaby, Heather; Palmer, Matthew D.; Howard, Tom; Bricheno, Lucy; Calvert, Daley; Krijnen, Justin; Wood, Richard; Tinker, Jonathan; Bunney, Chris; Harle, James; Saulter, Andrew; O'Neill, Clare; Bellingham, Clare; Lowe, Jason

    2016-05-01

    Singapore is an island state with considerable population, industries, commerce and transport located in coastal areas at elevations less than 2 m making it vulnerable to sea level rise. Mitigation against future inundation events requires a quantitative assessment of risk. To address this need, regional projections of changes in (i) long-term mean sea level and (ii) the frequency of extreme storm surge and wave events have been combined to explore potential changes to coastal flood risk over the 21st century. Local changes in time-mean sea level were evaluated using the process-based climate model data and methods presented in the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5). Regional surge and wave solutions extending from 1980 to 2100 were generated using ˜ 12 km resolution surge (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean - NEMO) and wave (WaveWatchIII) models. Ocean simulations were forced by output from a selection of four downscaled ( ˜ 12 km resolution) atmospheric models, forced at the lateral boundaries by global climate model simulations generated for the IPCC AR5. Long-term trends in skew surge and significant wave height were then assessed using a generalised extreme value model, fit to the largest modelled events each year. An additional atmospheric solution downscaled from the ERA-Interim global reanalysis was used to force historical ocean model simulations extending from 1980 to 2010, enabling a quantitative assessment of model skill. Simulated historical sea-surface height and significant wave height time series were compared to tide gauge data and satellite altimetry data, respectively. Central estimates of the long-term mean sea level rise at Singapore by 2100 were projected to be 0.52 m (0.74 m) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)4.5 (8.5) scenarios. Trends in surge and significant wave height 2-year return levels were found to be statistically insignificant and/or physically

  13. Learning Storm

    CERN Document Server

    Jain, Ankit

    2014-01-01

    If you are a Java developer who wants to enter into the world of real-time stream processing applications using Apache Storm, then this book is for you. No previous experience in Storm is required as this book starts from the basics. After finishing this book, you will be able to develop not-so-complex Storm applications.

  14. The Sources of Bz Fluctuations within CIRs: Magnetic Storms During the Descending Phase of the Solar Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakurai, R. K.; Tsurutani, B. T.; Ho, C. M.; Arballo, J. K.; Smith, E. J.; Goldstein, B. E.; Balogh, A.

    1995-01-01

    This presentation examines the magnetic field fluctuations within Corotating Interaction Regions (CIRs) detected by Ulysses at mid- and low-latitudes. CIRs are formed by the interaction of high-speed streams flowing from the polar coronal hole with slow-speed streams. Several wave modes are identified, and the effectiveness of these waves causing magnetic storms at Earth will be discussed.

  15. Research on Historical Records of Geomagnetic Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lakhina, G. S.; Alex, S.; Tsurutani, B. T.; Gonzalez, W. D.

    In recent times, there has been keen interest in understanding Sun-Earth connection events, such as solar flares, CMEs and concomitant magnetic storms. Magnetic storms are the most dramatic and perhaps important component of space weather effects on Earth. Super-intense magnetic storms (defined here as those with Dst cause life-threatening power outages, satellite damage, communication failures and navigational problems. However, the data for such magnetic storms is rather scarce. For example, only one super-intense magnetic storm has been recorded (Dst=-640 nT, March 13, 1989) during the space-age (since 1958), although such storms may have occurred many times in the last 160 years or so when the regular observatory network came into existence. Thus, research on historical geomagnetic storms can help to create a good data base for intense and super-intense magnetic storms. From the application of knowledge of interplanetary and solar causes of storms gained from the spaceage observations applied to the super-intense storm of September 1-2, 1859, it has been possible to deduce that an exceptionally fast (and intense) magnetic cloud was the interplanetary cause of this geomagnetic storm with a Dst -1760 nT, nearly 3 times as large as that of March 13, 1989 super-intense storm. The talk will focus on super-intense storms of September 1-2, 1859, and also discuss the results in the context of some recent intense storms.

  16. Impacts of Multi-Scale Solar Activity on Climate.Part Ⅰ:Atmospheric Circulation Patterns and Climate Extremes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Hengyi WENG

    2012-01-01

    The impacts of solar activity on climate are explored in this two-part study.Based on the principles of atmospheric dynamics,Part Ⅰ propose an amplifying mechanism of solar impacts on winter climate extremes through changing the atmospheric circulation patterns.This mechanism is supported by data analysis of the sunspot number up to the predicted Solar Cycle 24,the historical surface temperature data,and atmospheric variables of NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis up to the February 2011 for the Northern Hemisphere winters.For low solar activity,the thermal contrast between the low- and high-latitudes is enhanced,so as the mid-latitude baroclinic ultra-long wave activity.The land-ocean thermal contrast is also enhanced,which amplifies the topographic waves.The enhanced mid-latitude waves in turn enhance the meridional heat transport from the low to high latitudes,making the atmospheric “heat engine” more efficient than normal. The jets shift southward and the polar vortex is weakened.The Northern Annular Mode (NAM) index tends to be negative.The mid-latitude surface exhibits large-scale convergence and updrafts,which favor extreme weather/climate events to occur.The thermally driven Siberian high is enhanced,which enhances the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM).For high solar activity,the mid-latitude circulation patterns are less wavy with less meridional transport.The NAM tends to be positive,and the Siberian high and the EAWM tend to be weaker than normal.Thus the extreme weather/climate events for high solar activity occur in different regions with different severity from those for low solar activity.The solar influence on the midto high-latitude surface temperature and circulations can stand out after renoving the influence from the El Ni(n)o-Southern Oscillation.The atmospheric amplifying mechanism indicates that the solar impacts on climate should not be simply estimated by the magnitude of the change in the solar radiation over solar cycles when it is compared with

  17. Magnetic Flux of EUV Arcade and Dimming Regions as a Relevant Parameter for Early Diagnostics of Solar Eruptions - Sources of Non-Recurrent Geomagnetic Storms and Forbush Decreases

    CERN Document Server

    Chertok, I M; Belov, A V; Abunin, A A

    2012-01-01

    This study aims at the early diagnostics of geoeffectiveness of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from quantitative parameters of the accompanying EUV dimming and arcade events. We study events of the 23th solar cycle, in which major non-recurrent geomagnetic storms (GMS) with Dst <-100 nT are sufficiently reliably identified with their solar sources in the central part of the disk. Using the SOHO/EIT 195 A images and MDI magnetograms, we select significant dimming and arcade areas and calculate summarized unsigned magnetic fluxes in these regions at the photospheric level. The high relevance of this eruption parameter is displayed by its pronounced correlation with the Forbush decrease (FD) magnitude, which, unlike GMSs, does not depend on the sign of the Bz component but is determined by global characteristics of ICMEs. Correlations with the same magnetic flux in the solar source region are found for the GMS intensity (at the first step, without taking into account factors determining the Bz component near t...

  18. Interfacial Engineering and Charge Carrier Dynamics in Extremely Thin Absorber Solar Cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edley, Michael

    Photovoltaic energy is a clean and renewable source of electricity; however, it faces resistance to widespread use due to cost. Nanostructuring decouples constraints related to light absorption and charge separation, potentially reducing cost by allowing a wider variety of processing techniques and materials to be used. However, the large interfacial areas also cause an increased dark current which negatively affects cell efficiency. This work focuses on extremely thin absorber (ETA) solar cells that used a ZnO nanowire array as a scaffold for an extremely thin CdSe absorber layer. Photoexcited electrons generated in the CdSe absorber are transferred to the ZnO layer, while photogenerated holes are transferred to the liquid electrolyte. The transfer of photoexcited carriers to their transport layer competes with bulk recombination in the absorber layer. After charge separation, transport of charge carriers to their respective contacts must occur faster than interfacial recombination for efficient collection. Charge separation and collection depend sensitively on the dimensions of the materials as well as their interfaces. We demonstrated that an optimal absorber thickness can balance light absorption and charge separation. By treating the ZnO/CdSe interface with a CdS buffer layer, we were able to improve the Voc and fill factor, increasing the ETA cell's efficiency from 0.53% to 1.34%, which is higher than that achievable using planar films of the same material. We have gained additional insight into designing ETA cells through the use of dynamic measurements. Ultrafast transient absorption spectroscopy revealed that characteristic times for electron injection from CdSe to ZnO are less than 1 ps. Electron injection is rapid compared to the 2 ns bulk lifetime in CdSe. Optoelectronic measurements such as transient photocurrent/photovoltage and electrochemical impedance spectroscopy were applied to study the processes of charge transport and interfacial recombination

  19. The 2015 St Patrick's Day Storm: Origins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlyle, Jack; van Driel-Gesztelyi, Lidia; Zuccarello, Francesco; James, Alexander; Williams, David

    2017-08-01

    The magnetic storm experienced at Earth on St. Patrick's Day 2015 had been the strongest of cycle 24 (at that time) with a measured DST of -223 nT, though it was not expected to cause much of a disturbance. In this work we study the solar source region of several peculiar eruptions, leading to the formation and destruction of various structures, in the week leading up to the storm, and determine the true sequence of events. The evolution of the magnetic flux at the solar surface is examined in order to place suspected flux-ropes into context, and the evolution of the magnetic connectivities is described alongside a PFSS model of the surrounding region. The balance between positive and negative flux directly before two key eruptions is investigated in detail, in order to ascertain whether particular trigger mechanisms are feasible explanations. As well as these magnetic investigations, the column density of plasma involved is calculated from extreme ultraviolet images, and this is used to estimate the total mass of one filament, as well as select other features relevant to the eruptions. This information is then used to comment on the energy budgets and requirements of several processes in order to best understand the underlying drivers of this event.Previous studies on the St. Patrick's Day Storm are also incorporated into this work, and an attempt is made to reconcile the disparate conclusions drawn by the scientific community as to why this storm was not only so effective, but also a major forecasting failure.

  20. Structure, Propagation, and Expansion of a CME-driven Shock in the Heliosphere: A Revisit of the 2012 July 23 Extreme Storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ying D.; Hu, Huidong; Zhu, Bei; Luhmann, Janet G.; Vourlidas, Angelos

    2017-01-01

    We examine the structure, propagation, and expansion of the shock associated with the 2012 July 23 extreme coronal mass ejection. Characteristics of the shock determined from multi-point imaging observations are compared to in situ measurements at different locations and a complex radio type II burst, which according to our definition has multiple branches that may not all be fundamental-harmonic related. The white-light shock signature can be modeled reasonably well by a spherical structure and was expanding backward even on the opposite side of the Sun. The expansion of the shock, which was roughly self-similar after the first ∼1.5 hr from launch, largely dominated over the translation of the shock center for the time period of interest. Our study also suggests a bow-shock morphology around the nose at later times due to the outward motion in combination with the expansion of the ejecta. The shock decayed and failed to reach Mercury in the backward direction and the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory B (STEREO B) and Venus in the lateral directions, as indicated by the imaging and in situ observations. The shock in the nose direction, however, may have persisted to the far outer heliosphere, with predicted impact on Dawn around 06:00 UT on July 25 and on Jupiter around 23:30 UT on July 27 by a magnetohydrodynamic model. The type II burst shows properties generally consistent with the spatial/temporal variations of the shock deduced from imaging and in situ observations. In particular, the low-frequency bands agree well with the in situ measurements of a very low density ahead of the shock at STEREO A.

  1. Solar and thermal radiative effects during the 2011 extreme desert dust episode over Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valenzuela, A.; Costa, M. J.; Guerrero-Rascado, J. L.; Bortoli, D.; Olmo, F. J.

    2017-01-01

    This paper analyses the influence of the extreme Saharan desert dust (DD) event on shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiation at the EARLINET/AERONET Évora station (Southern Portugal) from 4 up to 7 April 2011. There was also some cloud occurrence in the period. In this context, it is essential to quantify the effect of cloud presence on aerosol radiative forcing. A radiative transfer model was initialized with aerosol optical properties, cloud vertical properties and meteorological atmospheric vertical profiles. The intercomparison between the instantaneous TOA shortwave and longwave fluxes derived using CERES and those calculated using SBDART, which was fed with aerosol extinction coefficients derived from the CALIPSO and lidar-PAOLI observations, varying OPAC dataset parameters, was reasonably acceptable within the standard deviations. The dust aerosol type that yields the best fit was found to be the mineral accumulation mode. Therefore, SBDART model constrained with the CERES observations can be used to reliably determine aerosol radiative forcing and heating rates. Aerosol radiative forcings and heating rates were derived in the SW (ARFSw, AHRSw) and LW (ARFLw, AHRLw) spectral ranges, considering a cloud-aerosol free reference atmosphere. We found that AOD at 440 nm increased by a factor of 5 on 6 April with respect to the lower dust load on 4 April. It was responsible by a strong cooling radiative effect pointed out by the ARFSw value (-99 W/m2 for a solar zenith angle of 60°) offset by a warming radiative effect according to ARFLw value (+21.9 W/m2) at the surface. Overall, about 24% and 12% of the dust solar radiative cooling effect is compensated by its longwave warming effect at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere, respectively. Hence, larger aerosol loads could enhance the response between the absorption and re-emission processes increasing the ARFLw with respect to those associated with moderate and low aerosol loads. The unprecedented

  2. Optimization of the design of extremely thin absorber solar cells based on electrodeposited ZnO nanowires.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lévy-Clément, Claude; Elias, Jamil

    2013-07-22

    The properties of the components of ZnO/CdSe/CuSCN extremely thin absorber (ETA) solar cells based on electrodeposited ZnO nanowires (NWs) were investigated. The goal was to study the influence of their morphology on the characteristics of the solar cells. To increase the energy conversion efficiency of the solar cell, it was generally proposed to increase the roughness factor of the ZnO NW arrays (i.e. to increase the NW length) with the purpose of decreasing the absorber thickness, improving the light scattering, and consequently the light absorption in the ZnO/CdSe NW arrays. However, this strategy increased the recombination centers, which affected the efficiency of the solar cell. We developed another strategy that acts on the optical configuration of the solar cells by increasing the diameter of the ZnO NW (from 100 to 330 nm) while maintaining a low roughness factor. We observed that the scattering of the ZnO NW arrays occurred over a large wavelength range and extended closer to the CdSe absorber bandgap, and this led to an enhancement in the effective absorption of the ZnO/CdSe NW arrays and an increase in the solar cell characteristics. We found that the thicknesses of CuSCN above the ZnO/CdSe NW tips and the CdSe coating layer were optimized at 1.5 μm and 30 nm, respectively. Optimized ZnO/CdSe/CuSCN solar cells exhibiting 3.2% solar energy conversion efficiency were obtained by using 230 nm diameter ZnO NWs.

  3. Major Geomagnetic Storms (Dst less than or equal to -100 nT) Generated by Corotating Interaction Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, I. G.; Webb, D. F.; Zhang, J.; Berdichevsky, B. D.; Biesecker, D. A.; Kasper, J. C.; Kataoka, R.; Steinberg, J. T.; Thompson, B. J.; Wu, C.-C.; Zhukov, A. N.

    2006-01-01

    Seventy-nine major geomagnetic storms (minimum Dst less than or equal to -100 nT) observed in 1996 to 2004 were the focus of a Living with a Star Coordinated Data-Analysis Workshop (CDAW) in March, 2005. In 9 cases, the storm driver appears to have been purely a corotating interaction region (CIR) without any contribution from coronal mass ejection-related material (interplanetary coronal mass ejections, ICMEs). These storms were generated by structures within CIRs located both before and/or after the stream interface that included persistently southward magnetic fields for intervals of several hours. We compare their geomagnetic effects with those of 159 CIRs observed during 1996 - 2005. The major storms form the extreme tail of a continuous distribution of CIR geoeffectiveness which peaks at Dst approx. -40 nT but is subject to a prominent seasonal variation of - 40 nT which is ordered by the spring and fall equinoxes and the solar wind magnetic field direction towards or away from the Sun. The O'Brien and McPherron [2000] equations, which estimate Dst by integrating the incident solar wind electric field and incorporating a ring current loss term, largely account for the variation in storm size. They tend to underestimate the size of the larger CIR-associated storms by Dst approx. 20 nT. This suggests that injection into the ring current may be more efficient than expected in such storms. Four of the nine major storms in 1996 - 2004 occurred during a period of less than three solar rotations in September - November, 2002, also the time of maximum mean IMF and solar magnetic field intensity during the current solar cycle. The maximum CIR-storm strength found in our sample of events, plus additional 23 probable CIR-associated Dst less than or equal to -100 nT storms in 1972 - 1995, is (Dst = -161 nT). This is consistent with the maximum storm strength (Dst approx. -180 nT) expected from the O'Brien and McPherron equations for the typical range of solar wind

  4. Extreme total column ozone events and effects on UV solar radiation at Thessaloniki, Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fragkos, K.; Bais, A. F.; Fountoulakis, I.; Balis, D.; Tourpali, K.; Meleti, C.; Zanis, P.

    2016-11-01

    Thirty years of total ozone column (TOC) measurements conducted by a Brewer spectrophotometer, operating in Thessaloniki (40.6°) since March 1982, have been analyzed using the statistical extreme value theory for the identification of extreme TOC events. About 12 % of the total number of days with TOC measurements were identified as extreme-low and ˜15 % as extreme-high events. The influence of the extreme-low events on the annual mean TOC values is up to ˜18 DU, while the extreme-high events show lower impact (up to 12 DU). Removing the extreme events from the time series results in smoother year-to-year variability and reduction of the small long-term linear trend (-0.08 %/year) by a factor of 2. Furthermore, we examined the impact of the extreme events on the noon erythemal irradiance under clear skies, and we provide evidence that even under extreme-low TOC conditions, the UV radiation levels are determined to a great extent by the aerosol optical depth. Although the influence of aerosols is evident during all seasons, for spring and summer, the sensitivity of UV radiation is larger, probably due to the different nature of the aerosols over Thessaloniki during these seasons.

  5. Possible effect of extreme solar energetic particle events of September–October 1989 on polar stratospheric aerosols: a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Mironova

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The main ionization source of the middle and low Earth's atmosphere is related to energetic particles coming from outer space. Usually it is ionization from cosmic rays that is always present in the atmosphere. But in a case of a very strong solar eruption, some solar energetic particles (SEPs can reach middle/low atmosphere increasing the ionization rate up to some orders of magnitude at polar latitudes. We continue investigating such a special class of solar events and their possible applications for natural variations of the aerosol content. After the case study of the extreme SEP event of January 2005 and its possible effect upon polar stratospheric aerosols, here we analyze atmospheric applications of the sequence of several events that took place over autumn 1989. Using aerosol data obtained over polar regions from two satellites with space-borne optical instruments SAGE II and SAM II that were operating during September–October 1989, we found that an extreme major SEP event might have led to formation of new particles and/or growth of preexisting ultrafine particles in the polar stratospheric region. However, the effect of the additional ambient air ionization on the aerosol formation is minor, in comparison with temperature effect, and can take place only in the cold polar atmospheric conditions. The extra aerosol mass formed under the temperature effect allows attributing most of the changes to the "ion–aerosol clear sky mechanism".

  6. Possible effect of extreme solar energetic particle events of September–October 1989 on polar stratospheric aerosols: a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Mironova

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The main ionization source of the middle and low Earth atmosphere is related to energetic particles coming from outer space. Usually it is ionization from cosmic rays that is always present in the atmosphere. But in a case of a very strong solar eruption some solar energetic particles (SEP can reach middle/low atmosphere increasing the ionization rate up to some orders of magnitude at polar latitudes. We continue investigating such a special class of solar events and their possible applications for natural variations of the aerosol content. After the case study of the extreme SEP event of January 2005 and its possible effect upon polar stratospheric aerosols, here we analyze atmospheric applications of the second sequence of several events that took place over the Autumn 1989. Using aerosol data obtained over polar regions from two satellites with space-borne optical instruments SAGE II and SAM II that were operating during September–October 1989, we found that an extreme major SEP event might have led to formation of new particles and/or growth of preexisting ultrafine particles in the polar stratospheric region. However, the effect of the additional ambient air ionization on the aerosol formation is minor, in comparison with temperature effect, and can take place only in the cold polar atmospheric conditions.

  7. Response of Extreme Precipitation to Solar Activity and El Nino Events in Typical Regions of the Loess Plateau

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. J. Li

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Extreme climatic oscillation has been the subject of global attention. The purpose of this study is to explore the response of extreme precipitation to solar activity and El Nino events in typical regions of the Loess Plateau—a case study in the Yan’an area. The precipitation data was from nine weather stations in Yan’an and the sunspot number and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI were from 1951 to 2015. The results show that maximum precipitation occurred mainly at the peak sunspot number or 2a near it and the sunspot number minimum and valley values were not significantly correlated. The results of Morlet wavelet showed that a 41-year period of precipitation was the most obvious within the 64-year scale. Similarly, sunspot number showed a 16-year periodic variability. Correlation analyses of the 16-year and 41-year scales demonstrated that the relationships between precipitation and sunspot number were close. In addition, extreme precipitation often occurred in the year following El Nino events. According to 10-year moving average curves, precipitation generally showed a downward trend when SOI was negative. The results indicate that solar activity and El Nino events had significant impacts on precipitation in typical regions of the Loess Plateau.

  8. Predicting the occurrence of super-storms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Srivastava

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available A comparative study of five super-storms (Dst<-300 nT of the current solar cycle after the launch of SoHO, to identify solar and interplanetary variables that influence the magnitude of resulting geomagnetic storms, is described. Amongst solar variables, the initial speed of a CME is considered the most reliable predictor of the strength of the associated geomagnetic storm because fast mass ejections are responsible for building up the ram pressure at the Earth's magnetosphere. However, although most of the super-storms studied were associated with high speed CMEs, the Dst index of the resulting geomagnetic storms varied between -300 to -472 nT. The most intense storm of 20 November 2003, (Dst ~ -472 nT had its source in a comparatively smaller active region and was associated with a relatively weaker, M-class flare while all other super-storms had their origins in large active regions and were associated with strong X-class flares. However, this superstorm did not show any associated extraordinary solar and interplanetary characteristics. The study also reveals the challenge in the reliable prediction of the magnitude of a geomagnetic storm from solar and interplanetary variables.

  9. Historical changes in the Mississippi-Alabama barrier-island chain and the roles of extreme storms, sea level, and human activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, R.A.

    2008-01-01

    Barrier-island chains worldwide are undergoing substantial changes, and their futures remain uncertain. An historical analysis of a barrier-island chain in the north-central Gulf of Mexico shows that the Mississippi barriers are undergoing rapid systematic land loss and translocation associated with: (1) unequal lateral transfer of sand related to greater updrift erosion compared to downdrift deposition; (2) barrier narrowing resulting from simultaneous erosion of shores along the Gulf and Mississippi Sound; and (3) barrier segmentation related to storm breaching. Dauphin Island, Alabama, is also losing land for some of the same reasons as it gradually migrates landward. The principal causes of land loss are frequent intense storms, a relative rise in sea level, and a sediment-budget deficit. Considering the predicted trends for storms and sea level related to global warming, it is certain that the Mississippi-Alabama (MS-AL) barrier islands will continue to lose land area at a rapid rate unless the trend of at least one causal factor reverses. Historical land-loss trends and engineering records show that progressive increases in land-loss rate correlate with nearly simultaneous deepening of channels dredged across the outer bars of the three tidal inlets maintained for deep-draft shipping. This correlation indicates that channel-maintenance activities along the MS-AL barriers have impacted the sediment budget by disrupting the alongshore sediment transport system and progressively reducing sand supply. Direct management of this causal factor can be accomplished by strategically placing dredged sediment where adjacent barrier-island shores will receive it for island nourishment and rebuilding.

  10. Locally linear neurofuzzy modeling and prediction of geomagnetic disturbances based on solar wind conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharifie, Javad; Lucas, Caro; Araabi, Babak N.

    2006-06-01

    Disturbance storm time index (Dst) is nonlinearly related to solar wind data. In this paper, Dst past values, Dst derivative, past values of southward interplanetary magnetic field, and the square root of dynamic pressure are used as inputs for modeling and prediction of the Dst index, especially during extreme events. The geoeffective solar wind parameters are selected depending on the physical background of the geomagnetic storm procedure and physical models. A locally linear neurofuzzy model with a progressive tree construction learning algorithm is applied as a powerful tool for nonlinear modeling of Dst index on the basis of its past values and solar wind parameters. The result for modeling and prediction of several intense storms shows that the geomagnetic disturbance Dst index based on geoeffective parameters is a nonlinear model that could be considered as the nonlinear extension of empirical linear physical models. The method is applied for prediction of some geomagnetic storms. Obtained results show that using the proposed method, the predicted values of several extreme storms are highly correlated with observed values. In addition, prediction of the main phase of many storms shows a good match with observed data, which constitutes an appropriate approach for solar storm alerting to vulnerable industries.

  11. Next Generation Extremely Large Solar Array System for NASA Exploration Missions Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The proposed technology is a revolutionary solar array advancement that relies on a structurally optimized platform to provide unparalleled specific-performance and...

  12. Multifluid Block-Adaptive-Tree Solar Wind Roe-Type Upwind Scheme: Magnetospheric Composition and Dynamics During Geomagnetic Storms-Initial Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glocer, A.; Toth, G.; Ma, Y.; Gombosi, T.; Zhang, J.-C.; Kistler, L. M.

    2009-01-01

    The magnetosphere contains a significant amount of ionospheric O+, particularly during geomagnetically active times. The presence of ionospheric plasma in the magnetosphere has a notable impact on magnetospheric composition and processes. We present a new multifluid MHD version of the Block-Adaptive-Tree Solar wind Roe-type Upwind Scheme model of the magnetosphere to track the fate and consequences of ionospheric outflow. The multifluid MHD equations are presented as are the novel techniques for overcoming the formidable challenges associated with solving them. Our new model is then applied to the May 4, 1998 and March 31, 2001 geomagnetic storms. The results are juxtaposed with traditional single-fluid MHD and multispecies MHD simulations from a previous study, thereby allowing us to assess the benefits of using a more complex model with additional physics. We find that our multifluid MHD model (with outflow) gives comparable results to the multispecies MHD model (with outflow), including a more strongly negative Dst, reduced CPCP, and a drastically improved magnetic field at geosynchronous orbit, as compared to single-fluid MHD with no outflow. Significant differences in composition and magnetic field are found between the multispecies and multifluid approach further away from the Earth. We further demonstrate the ability to explore pressure and bulk velocity differences between H+ and O+, which is not possible when utilizing the other techniques considered

  13. Multifluid Block-Adaptive-Tree Solar Wind Roe-Type Upwind Scheme: Magnetospheric Composition and Dynamics During Geomagnetic Storms-Initial Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glocer, A.; Toth, G.; Ma, Y.; Gombosi, T.; Zhang, J.-C.; Kistler, L. M.

    2009-01-01

    The magnetosphere contains a significant amount of ionospheric O+, particularly during geomagnetically active times. The presence of ionospheric plasma in the magnetosphere has a notable impact on magnetospheric composition and processes. We present a new multifluid MHD version of the Block-Adaptive-Tree Solar wind Roe-type Upwind Scheme model of the magnetosphere to track the fate and consequences of ionospheric outflow. The multifluid MHD equations are presented as are the novel techniques for overcoming the formidable challenges associated with solving them. Our new model is then applied to the May 4, 1998 and March 31, 2001 geomagnetic storms. The results are juxtaposed with traditional single-fluid MHD and multispecies MHD simulations from a previous study, thereby allowing us to assess the benefits of using a more complex model with additional physics. We find that our multifluid MHD model (with outflow) gives comparable results to the multispecies MHD model (with outflow), including a more strongly negative Dst, reduced CPCP, and a drastically improved magnetic field at geosynchronous orbit, as compared to single-fluid MHD with no outflow. Significant differences in composition and magnetic field are found between the multispecies and multifluid approach further away from the Earth. We further demonstrate the ability to explore pressure and bulk velocity differences between H+ and O+, which is not possible when utilizing the other techniques considered

  14. Adaptation strategies of endolithic chlorophototrophs to survive the hyperarid and extreme solar radiation environment of the Atacama Desert

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacek eWierzchos

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The Atacama Desert, northern Chile, is one of the driest deserts on Earth and, as such, a natural laboratory to explore the limits of life and the strategies evolved by microorganisms to adapt to extreme environments. Here we report the exceptional adaptation strategies of chlorophototrophic and eukaryotic algae, and chlorophototrophic and prokaryotic cyanobacteria to the hyperarid and extremely high solar radiation conditions occurring in this desert. Our approach combined several microscopy techniques, spectroscopic analytical methods, and molecular analyses. We found that the major adaptation strategy was to avoid the extreme environmental conditions by colonizing cryptoendolithic, as well as, hypoendolithic habitats within gypsum deposits. The cryptoendolithic colonization occurred a few millimeters beneath the gypsum surface and showed a succession of organized horizons of algae and cyanobacteria, which has never been reported for endolithic microbial communities. The presence of cyanobacteria beneath the algal layer, in close contact with sepiolite inclusions, and their hypoendolithic colonization suggest that occasional liquid water might persist within these sub-microhabitats. We also identified the presence of abundant carotenoids in the upper cryptoendolithic algal habitat and scytonemin in the cyanobacteria hypoendolithic habitat. This study illustrates that successful lithobiontic microbial colonization at the limit for microbial life is the result of a combination of adaptive strategies to avoid excess solar irradiance and extreme evapotranspiration rates, taking advantage of the complex structural and mineralogical characteristics of gypsum deposits – conceptually called rock’s habitable architecture. Additionally self-protection by synthesis and accumulation of secondary metabolites likely produces a shielding effect that prevents photoinhibition and lethal photooxidative damage to the chlorophototrophs, representing another

  15. Adaptation strategies of endolithic chlorophototrophs to survive the hyperarid and extreme solar radiation environment of the Atacama Desert

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wierzchos, Jacek; DiRuggiero, Jocelyne; Vítek, Petr; Artieda, Octavio; Souza-Egipsy, Virginia; Škaloud, Pavel; Tisza, Michel; Davila, Alfonso F.; Vílchez, Carlos; Garbayo, Inés; Ascaso, Carmen

    2015-01-01

    The Atacama Desert, northern Chile, is one of the driest deserts on Earth and, as such, a natural laboratory to explore the limits of life and the strategies evolved by microorganisms to adapt to extreme environments. Here we report the exceptional adaptation strategies of chlorophototrophic and eukaryotic algae, and chlorophototrophic and prokaryotic cyanobacteria to the hyperarid and extremely high solar radiation conditions occurring in this desert. Our approach combined several microscopy techniques, spectroscopic analytical methods, and molecular analyses. We found that the major adaptation strategy was to avoid the extreme environmental conditions by colonizing cryptoendolithic, as well as, hypoendolithic habitats within gypsum deposits. The cryptoendolithic colonization occurred a few millimeters beneath the gypsum surface and showed a succession of organized horizons of algae and cyanobacteria, which has never been reported for endolithic microbial communities. The presence of cyanobacteria beneath the algal layer, in close contact with sepiolite inclusions, and their hypoendolithic colonization suggest that occasional liquid water might persist within these sub-microhabitats. We also identified the presence of abundant carotenoids in the upper cryptoendolithic algal habitat and scytonemin in the cyanobacteria hypoendolithic habitat. This study illustrates that successful lithobiontic microbial colonization at the limit for microbial life is the result of a combination of adaptive strategies to avoid excess solar irradiance and extreme evapotranspiration rates, taking advantage of the complex structural and mineralogical characteristics of gypsum deposits—conceptually called “rock's habitable architecture.” Additionally, self-protection by synthesis and accumulation of secondary metabolites likely produces a shielding effect that prevents photoinhibition and lethal photooxidative damage to the chlorophototrophs, representing another level of

  16. Adaptation strategies of endolithic chlorophototrophs to survive the hyperarid and extreme solar radiation environment of the Atacama Desert.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wierzchos, Jacek; DiRuggiero, Jocelyne; Vítek, Petr; Artieda, Octavio; Souza-Egipsy, Virginia; Škaloud, Pavel; Tisza, Michel; Davila, Alfonso F; Vílchez, Carlos; Garbayo, Inés; Ascaso, Carmen

    2015-01-01

    The Atacama Desert, northern Chile, is one of the driest deserts on Earth and, as such, a natural laboratory to explore the limits of life and the strategies evolved by microorganisms to adapt to extreme environments. Here we report the exceptional adaptation strategies of chlorophototrophic and eukaryotic algae, and chlorophototrophic and prokaryotic cyanobacteria to the hyperarid and extremely high solar radiation conditions occurring in this desert. Our approach combined several microscopy techniques, spectroscopic analytical methods, and molecular analyses. We found that the major adaptation strategy was to avoid the extreme environmental conditions by colonizing cryptoendolithic, as well as, hypoendolithic habitats within gypsum deposits. The cryptoendolithic colonization occurred a few millimeters beneath the gypsum surface and showed a succession of organized horizons of algae and cyanobacteria, which has never been reported for endolithic microbial communities. The presence of cyanobacteria beneath the algal layer, in close contact with sepiolite inclusions, and their hypoendolithic colonization suggest that occasional liquid water might persist within these sub-microhabitats. We also identified the presence of abundant carotenoids in the upper cryptoendolithic algal habitat and scytonemin in the cyanobacteria hypoendolithic habitat. This study illustrates that successful lithobiontic microbial colonization at the limit for microbial life is the result of a combination of adaptive strategies to avoid excess solar irradiance and extreme evapotranspiration rates, taking advantage of the complex structural and mineralogical characteristics of gypsum deposits-conceptually called "rock's habitable architecture." Additionally, self-protection by synthesis and accumulation of secondary metabolites likely produces a shielding effect that prevents photoinhibition and lethal photooxidative damage to the chlorophototrophs, representing another level of adaptation.

  17. Magnetic Storms at Mars and Earth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vennerstrøm, Susanne; Falkenberg, Thea Vilstrup

    In analogy with magnetic storms at the Earth, periods of significantly enhanced global magnetic activity also exist at Mars. The extensive database of magnetic measurements from Mars Global Surveyor (MGS), covering almost an entire solar cycle, is used in combination with geomagnetic activity...... indices at Earth to compare the occurrence of magnetic storms at Mars and Earth. Based on superposed epochs analysis the time-development of typical magnetic storms at Mars and Earth is described. In contradiction to storms at Earth, most magnetic storms at Mars are found to be associated...... with heliospheric current sheet crossings, where the IMF changes polarity. While most storms at the Earth occur due to significant southward excursions of the IMF associated with CMEs, at Mars most storms seem to be associated with the density enhancement of the heliospheric current sheet. Density enhancements...

  18. Magnetic Storms at Mars and Earth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vennerstrøm, Susanne; Falkenberg, Thea Vilstrup

    In analogy with magnetic storms at the Earth, periods of significantly enhanced global magnetic activity also exist at Mars. The extensive database of magnetic measurements from Mars Global Surveyor (MGS), covering almost an entire solar cycle, is used in combination with geomagnetic activity...... indices at Earth to compare the occurrence of magnetic storms at Mars and Earth. Based on superposed epochs analysis the time-development of typical magnetic storms at Mars and Earth is described. In contradiction to storms at Earth, most magnetic storms at Mars are found to be associated...... with heliospheric current sheet crossings, where the IMF changes polarity. While most storms at the Earth occur due to significant southward excursions of the IMF associated with CMEs, at Mars most storms seem to be associated with the density enhancement of the heliospheric current sheet. Density enhancements...

  19. Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia: tides, extra-tropical storm surges and mean sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haigh, Ivan D.; Wijeratne, E. M. S.; MacPherson, Leigh R.; Pattiaratchi, Charitha B.; Mason, Matthew S.; Crompton, Ryan P.; George, Steve

    2014-01-01

    The occurrence of extreme water levels along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to considerable loss of life and billions of dollars of damage to coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood management, engineering and future land-use planning. This ensures the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. This paper estimates for the first time present day extreme water level exceedence probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. A high-resolution depth averaged hydrodynamic model has been configured for the Australian continental shelf region and has been forced with tidal levels from a global tidal model and meteorological fields from a global reanalysis to generate a 61-year hindcast of water levels. Output from this model has been successfully validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites. At each numeric coastal grid point, extreme value distributions have been fitted to the derived time series of annual maxima and the several largest water levels each year to estimate exceedence probabilities. This provides a reliable estimate of water level probabilities around southern Australia; a region mainly impacted by extra-tropical cyclones. However, as the meteorological forcing used only weakly includes the effects of tropical cyclones, extreme water level probabilities are underestimated around the western, northern and north-eastern Australian coastline. In a companion paper we build on the work presented here and more accurately include tropical cyclone-induced surges in the estimation of extreme water level. The multi-decadal hindcast generated here has been used primarily to estimate extreme water level exceedance probabilities but could be used more widely in the future for a variety of other research and practical

  20. Shrinking Sea Ice, Thawing Permafrost, Bigger Storms, and Extremely Limited Data - Addressing Information Needs of Stakeholders in Western Alaska Through Participatory Decisions and Collaborative Science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, K. A.; Reynolds, J.

    2015-12-01

    Communities, Tribes, and decision makers in coastal western Alaska are being impacted by declining sea ice, sea level rise, changing storm patterns and intensities, and increased rates of coastal erosion. Relative to their counterparts in the contiguous USA, their ability to plan for and respond to these changes is constrained by the region's generally meager or non-existent information base. Further, the information needs and logistic challenges are of a scale that perhaps can be addressed only through strong, strategic collaboration. Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) are fundamentally about applied science and collaboration, especially collaborative decision making. The Western Alaska LCC has established a process of participatory decision making that brings together researchers, agency managers, local experts from Tribes and field specialists to identify and prioritize shared information needs; develop a course of action to address them by using the LCC's limited resources to catalyze engagement, overcome barriers to progress, and build momentum; then ensure products are delivered in a manner that meets decision makers' needs. We briefly review the LCC's activities & outcomes from the stages of (i) collaborative needs assessment (joint with the Alaska Climate Science Center and the Alaska Ocean Observing System), (ii) strategic science activities, and (iii) product refinement and delivery. We discuss lessons learned, in the context of our recent program focused on 'Changes in Coastal Storms and Their Impacts' and current collaborative efforts focused on delivery of Coastal Resiliency planning tools and results from applied science projects. Emphasis is given to the various key interactions between scientists and decision makers / managers that have been promoted by this process to ensure alignment of final products to decision maker needs.

  1. Polar summer mesospheric extreme horizontal drift speeds during interplanetary corotating interaction regions (CIRs) and high-speed solar wind streams: Coupling between the solar wind and the mesosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Young-Sook; Kirkwood, Sheila; Kwak, Young-Sil; Kim, Kyung-Chan; Shepherd, Gordon G.

    2014-05-01

    We report the observation of echo extreme horizontal drift speed (EEHS, ≥ 300 m s-1) during polar mesospheric (80-90 km) summer echoes (PMSEs) by the VHF (52 MHz) radar at Esrange, Sweden, in years of 2006 and 2008. The EEHS occur in PMSEs as correlated with high-speed solar wind streams (HSSs), observed at least once in 12-17% of all hours of observation for the two summers. The EEHS rate peaks occur either during high solar wind speed in the early part of the PMSE season or during the arrival of interplanetary corotating interaction regions (CIRs) followed by peaks in PMSE occurrence rate after 1-4 days, in the latter part of the 2006 summer. The cause of EEHS rate peaks is likely under the competition between the interval of the CIR and HSS passage over the magnetosphere. A candidate process in producing EEHS is suggested to be localized strong electric field, which is caused by solar wind energy transfer from the interaction of CIR and HSS with the magnetosphere in a sequential manner. We suggest that EEHS are created by strong electric field, estimated as > 10-30 V m-1 at 85 km altitude, exceeding the mesospheric breakdown threshold field.

  2. Solar panels as air Cherenkov detectors for extremely high energy cosmic rays

    CERN Document Server

    Cecchini, S; Esposti, L D; Giacomelli, G; Guerra, M; Lax, I; Mandrioli, G; Parretta, A; Sarno, A; Schioppo, R; Sorel, M; Spurio, M

    2000-01-01

    Increasing interest towards the observation of the highest energy cosmic rayshas motivated the development of new detection techniques. The properties ofthe Cherenkov photon pulse emitted in the atmosphere by these very rareparticles indicate low-cost semiconductor detectors as good candidates fortheir optical read-out. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the viability of solar panels for thispurpose. The experimental framework resulting from measurements performed withsuitably-designed solar cells and large conventional photovoltaic areas ispresented. A discussion on the obtained and achievable sensitivities follows.

  3. Modeling geomagnetic storms on prompt and diffusive time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhao

    The discovery of the Van Allen radiation belts in the 1958 was the first major discovery of the Space Age. There are two belts of energetic particles. The inner belt is very stable, but the outer belt is extremely variable, especially during geomagnetic storms. As the energetic particles are hazardous to spacecraft, understanding the source of these particles and their dynamic behavior driven by solar activity has great practical importance. In this thesis, the effects of magnetic storms on the evolution of the electron radiation belts, in particular the outer zone, is studied using two types of numerical simulation: radial diffusion and magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) test-particle simulation. A radial diffusion code has been developed at Dartmouth, applying satellite measurements to model flux as an outer boundary condition, exploring several options for the diffusion coefficient and electron loss time. Electron phase space density is analyzed for July 2004 coronal mass ejection (CME) driven storms and March-April 2008 co-rotating interaction region (CIR) driven storms, and compared with Global Positioning System (GPS) satellite measurements within 5 degrees of the magnetic equator at L=4.16. A case study of a month-long interval in the Van Allen Probes satellite era, March 2013, confirms that electron phase space density is well described by radial diffusion for the whole month at low first invariant 0.6 MeV by an order of magnitude over 24 hours as observed.

  4. Possible effect of extreme solar energetic particle event of 20 January 2005 on polar stratospheric aerosols: direct observational evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Mironova

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Energetic cosmic rays are the main source of ionization of the low-middle atmosphere, leading to associated changes in atmospheric properties. Via the hypothetical influence of ionization on aerosol growth and facilitated formation of clouds, this may be an important indirect link relating solar variability to climate. This effect is highly debated, however, since the proposed theoretical mechanisms still remain illusive and qualitative, and observational evidence is inconclusive and controversial. Therefore, important questions regarding the existence and magnitude of the effect, and particularly the fraction of aerosol particles that can form and grow, are still open. Here we present empirical evidence of the possible effect caused by cosmic rays upon polar stratospheric aerosols, based on a case study of an extreme solar energetic particle (SEP event of 20 January 2005. Using aerosol data obtained over polar regions from different satellites with optical instruments that were operating during January 2005, such as the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III, and Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imaging System (OSIRIS, we found a significant simultaneous change in aerosol properties in both the Southern and Northern Polar regions in temporal association with the SEP event. We speculate that ionization of the atmosphere, which was abnormally high in the lower stratosphere during the extreme SEP event, might have led to formation of new particles and/or growth of preexisting ultrafine particles in the polar stratospheric region. However, a detailed interpretation of the effect is left for subsequent studies. This is the first time high vertical resolution measurements have been used to discuss possible production of stratospheric aerosols under the influence of cosmic ray induced ionization. The observed effect is marginally detectable for the analyzed severe SEP event and can be undetectable for the majority of weak

  5. Charging studies of heat packs using parabolic dish solar energy concentrator for extreme conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Rohitash; Vyas, Sumita; Kumar, Ravindra; Dixit, Ambesh

    2016-05-01

    Parabolic dish solar energy concentrator with aperture diameter 1.4 m and focal length 0.32 m is designed and fabricated to charge and store solar thermal energy in phase change material (PCM) based heat packs. Overall heat loss factor, heat duty, over all thermal efficiency, and optical efficiency factor are calculated using water sensible heating and cooling tests and values are 16.11 W m-2 K-1, 546.9 W, 49.2% and 0.62 respectively. The performance characteristic curve is generated using these parameters to understand its performance at different ambient temperatures and solar insolation. The fabricated concentrator has been used to charge 16 PCM heat packs with 150 g PCM in each heat pack, which took about 35 minutes for complete charging of PCM heat packs at average ambient temperature 39 °C and solar radiation flux density 715 W m-2 K-1. The charged heat packs are subjected to discharge studies at average ambient temperature about - 7 °C and observed heat release in the temperature range of 48 to 40 °C for 50 minutes, suggesting its applications for comfort and therapeutic applications in high altitude areas.

  6. Luminescence dating of storm-surge sediment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cunningham, A.C.

    2011-01-01

    Geological evidence of storm surges has the potential to provide vital information on storm-surge risk. Sediment from the coastal dunes of the Netherlands contains evidence of extreme floods that occurred before reliable measurements of water level began. For these sediments to be useful in flood-ri

  7. Global differences between moderate and large storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valek, P. W.; Buzulukova, N.; Fok, M. C. H.; Goldstein, J.; Keesee, A. M.; McComas, D. J.; Perez, J. D.

    2015-12-01

    The current solar maximum has been relatively quiet compared to previous solar cycles. Whereas numerous moderate storms (Dst ENA cameras flown aboard two separate spacecraft in Molniya orbits. TWINS images the ENA emissions from the inner magnetosphere across a broad range of energies (1 to 100 keV for H, 16 to 256 keV for O). This allows TWINS to observe the evolution in space and time of the trapped and precipitating particles most relevant for storm time dynamics on very high time scales (i.e., minutes). Here we will present the differences seen between moderate storms and the two large storms of 17 March 2015 (Dst ENA observations of the inner magnetosphere covering the both the medium (1 to 30 keV) and high (30 to > 100 keV) energy ranges, and describe how the inner magnetosphere evolves during storm time.

  8. Full Solar Spectrum Light Driven Thermocatalysis with Extremely High Efficiency on Nanostructured Ce Ion Substituted OMS-2 Catalyst for VOCs Purification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hou, J.T.; Li, Y.Z.; Mao, M.Y.

    2015-01-01

    The nanostructured Ce ion substituted cryptomelane-type octahedral molecular sieve (OMS-2) catalyst exhibits strong absorption in the entire solar spectrum region. The Ce ion substituted OMS-2 catalyst can efficiently transform the absorbed solar energy to thermal energy, resulting...... in a considerable increase of temperature. By combining the efficient photothermal conversion and thermocatalytic activity of the Ce ion substituted OMS-2 catalyst, we carried out full solar spectrum, visible-infrared, and infrared light driven catalysis with extremely high efficiency. Under the irradiation of full...... solar spectrum, visible-infrared, and infrared light, the Ce ion substituted OMS-2 catalyst exhibits extremely high catalytic activity and excellent durability for the oxidation of volatile organic pollutants such as benzene, toluene, and acetone. Based on the experimental evidence, we propose a novel...

  9. Solar Weather Ice Monitoring Station (SWIMS). A low cost, extreme/harsh environment, solar powered, autonomous sensor data gathering and transmission system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chetty, S.; Field, L. A.

    2013-12-01

    The Arctic ocean's continuing decrease of summer-time ice is related to rapidly diminishing multi-year ice due to the effects of climate change. Ice911 Research aims to develop environmentally respectful materials that when deployed will increase the albedo, enhancing the formation and/preservation of multi-year ice. Small scale deployments using various materials have been done in Canada, California's Sierra Nevada Mountains and a pond in Minnesota to test the albedo performance and environmental characteristics of these materials. SWIMS is a sophisticated autonomous sensor system being developed to measure the albedo, weather, water temperature and other environmental parameters. The system (SWIMS) employs low cost, high accuracy/precision sensors, high resolution cameras, and an extreme environment command and data handling computer system using satellite and terrestrial wireless communication. The entire system is solar powered with redundant battery backup on a floating buoy platform engineered for low temperature (-40C) and high wind conditions. The system also incorporates tilt sensors, sonar based ice thickness sensors and a weather station. To keep the costs low, each SWIMS unit measures incoming and reflected radiation from the four quadrants around the buoy. This allows data from four sets of sensors, cameras, weather station, water temperature probe to be collected and transmitted by a single on-board solar powered computer. This presentation covers the technical, logistical and cost challenges in designing, developing and deploying these stations in remote, extreme environments. Image captured by camera #3 of setting sun on the SWIMS station One of the images captured by SWIMS Camera #4

  10. Possible effect of extreme solar energetic particle event of 20 January 2005 on polar stratospheric aerosols: direct observational evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Mironova

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Energetic cosmic rays are the main source of ionization of the low-middle atmosphere, leading to associated changes in atmospheric properties. Via the hypothetical influence of ionization on aerosol growth and facilitated formation of cloud condensation nuclei, this may be an important indirect link relating solar variability to climate. This effect is highly debated, however, since the proposed theoretical mechanisms still remain illusive and qualitative, and observational evidence is inconclusive and controversial. Therefore, important questions regarding the existence and magnitude of the effect, and particularly the fraction of aerosol particles that can be formed and grow large enough to influence cloud condensation nuclei (CCN, are still open. Here we present empirical evidence of the possible effect caused by cosmic rays upon polar stratospheric aerosols, based on a case study of an extreme solar energetic particle (SEP event of 20 January 2005. Using aerosol data obtained over polar regions from different satellites with optical instruments that were operating during January 2005, such as the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III, and Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imaging System (OSIRIS, we found a significant simultaneous change in aerosol properties in both the southern and northern polar regions in temporal association with the SEP event. We speculate that ionization of the atmosphere, which was abnormally high during this extreme SEP event, might have led to formation of new particles and/or growth of preexisting ultrafine particles up to the size of CCN. However, a detailed interpretation of the effect is left for subsequent studies. This is the first time high vertical resolution measurements have been used to provide evidence for the probable production of stratospheric CCN from cosmic ray induced ionization.

  11. A portrait of the extreme Solar System object 2012 DR30

    CERN Document Server

    Kiss, Cs; Horner, J; Conn, B C; Müller, T G; Vilenius, E; Sárneczky, K; Kiss, L L; Bannister, M; Bayliss, D; Pál, A; Góbi, S; Verebélyi, E; ~Lellouch, E; Santos-Sanz, P; Ortiz, J L; Duffard, R; Morales, N

    2013-01-01

    2012 DR30 is a recently discovered Solar System object on a unique orbit, with a high eccentricity of 0.9867, a perihelion distance of 14.54 AU and a semi-major axis of 1109 AU, in this respect outscoring the vast majority of trans-Neptunian objects. We performed Herschel/PACS and optical photometry to uncover the size and albedo of 2012 DR30, together with its thermal and surface properties. The body is 185 km in diameter and has a relatively low V-band geometric albedo of ~8%. Although the colours of the object indicate that 2012 DR30 is an RI taxonomy class TNO or Centaur, we detected an absorption feature in the Z-band that is uncommon among these bodies. A dynamical analysis of the target's orbit shows that 2012 DR30 moves on a relatively unstable orbit and was most likely only recently placed on its current orbit from the most distant and still highly unexplored regions of the Solar System. If categorised on dynamical grounds 2012 DR30 is the largest Damocloid and/or high inclination Centaur observed so...

  12. Extreme solar event of AD775: Potential radiation exposure to crews in deep space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Townsend, L. W.; Porter, J. A.; deWet, W. C.; Smith, W. J.; McGirl, N. A.; Heilbronn, L. H.; Moussa, H. M.

    2016-06-01

    The existence of a historically large cosmic event in AD774 or 775, of probable solar origin, has recently been confirmed from records of 14C levels in tree rings located at widely separated locations on Earth, 10Be records in polar ice cores, and historical records of aurora sightings. Usoskin et al. (2013) [16] suggest that such an event, of solar origin, would have a proton fluence of ~4.5×1010 cm-2 at energies above 30 MeV, with a hard energy spectrum comparable to the event of 23 February 1956. In this work we investigate the possible radiation exposures to crews of missions on the surface of Mars, from such an event. In this work we use the HZETRN radiation transport code, originally developed at NASA Langley Research Center, and the Computerized Anatomical Male and Female human geometry models to estimate exposures for a variety of aluminum shield areal densities similar to those provided by a spacesuit, surface lander, and permanent habitat on the Martian surface. Comparisons of the predicted organ exposures with recently-recommended radiation exposure limits are made. Potential health effects on crews, of such an event, are also discussed.

  13. All About EVE: Education and Public Outreach for the Extreme Ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE) of the NASA Solar Dynamic Observatory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eparvier, F. G.; McCaffrey, M. S.; Buhr, S. M.

    2008-12-01

    With the aim of meeting NASA goals for education and public outreach as well as support education reform efforts including the National Science Education Standards, a suite of education materials and strategies have been developed by the Cooperative Institute for Environmental Sciences (CIRES) with the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP) at the University of Colorado for the Extreme Ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE), which is an instrument aboard the Solar Dynamic Observatory. This paper will examine the education materials that have been developed for teachers in the classroom and scientists who are conducting outreach, including handouts, a website on space weather for teachers, a slideshow presentation about the overall Solar Dynamic Observatory mission, and a DVD with videos explaining the construction and goals of the EVE instrument, a tour of LASP, and an overview of space science careers. The results and potential transferability of a pilot project developed through this effort that engaged English Second Language learners in a semester-long course on space weather that incorporated the used of a Sudden Ionospheric Disturbance (SID) Monitor will be highlighted.

  14. FIRST PRECISION LIGHT CURVE ANALYSIS OF THE NEGLECTED EXTREME MASS RATIO SOLAR-TYPE BINARY HR BOOTIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Samec, Ronald G. [Faculty Research Associate, Pisgah Astronomical Research Institute, One Pari Drive, Rosman, NC 28772 (United States); Benkendorf, Barry; Dignan, James B. [Astronomy Group, Physics and Engineering Department, Bob Jones University, 1700 Wade Hampton Boulevard, Greenville, SC 29614 (United States); Robb, Russell [University of Victoria and Guest Observer, Dominion Astrophysical Observatory (Canada); Kring, James [Physics Department, Auburn University, 206 Allison Lab, Auburn, Alabama, 36849 (United States); Faulkner, Danny R. [University of South Carolina, Lancaster, 476 Hubbard Drive, Lancaster, SC 29720 (United States)

    2015-04-15

    HR Bootis is a neglected binary that is found to be a solar-type (G2V) extreme mass ratio binary (EMRB). It was discovered by Hanley and Shapley in 1940. Surprisingly, little has been published in the intervening years. In 1999 it was characterized by a 0.31587 day orbital period. Since that time it has been observed by various observers who have determined ∼20 timings of minimum light over the past ∼15,000 orbits. Our observations in 2012 represent the first precision curves in the BVR{sub c}I{sub c} Johnson–Cousins wavelength bands. The light curves have rather low amplitudes, averaging some 0.5 magnitudes, yet they exhibit total eclipses, which is typical of the rare group of solar-type EMRBs. An improved linear ephemeris was computed along with a quadratic ephemeris showing a decaying orbit, which indicates magnetic breaking may be occurring. The light curve solution reveals that HR Boo is a contact system with a somewhat low 21% Roche-lobe fill-out but a mass ratio of q = 4.09 (0.2444), which defines it as an EMRB. Two spots, both hot, were allowed to iterate to fit the light curve asymmetries. Their radii are 32° and 16°. Both are high-latitude polar spots indicative of strong magnetic activity. The shallow contact yet nearly equal component temperatures makes it an unusual addition to this group.

  15. Full solar spectrum light driven thermocatalysis with extremely high efficiency on nanostructured Ce ion substituted OMS-2 catalyst for VOCs purification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Jingtao; Li, Yuanzhi; Mao, Mingyang; Yue, Yuanzheng; Greaves, G. Neville; Zhao, Xiujian

    2015-01-01

    The nanostructured Ce ion substituted cryptomelane-type octahedral molecular sieve (OMS-2) catalyst exhibits strong absorption in the entire solar spectrum region. The Ce ion substituted OMS-2 catalyst can efficiently transform the absorbed solar energy to thermal energy, resulting in a considerable increase of temperature. By combining the efficient photothermal conversion and thermocatalytic activity of the Ce ion substituted OMS-2 catalyst, we carried out full solar spectrum, visible-infrared, and infrared light driven catalysis with extremely high efficiency. Under the irradiation of full solar spectrum, visible-infrared, and infrared light, the Ce ion substituted OMS-2 catalyst exhibits extremely high catalytic activity and excellent durability for the oxidation of volatile organic pollutants such as benzene, toluene, and acetone. Based on the experimental evidence, we propose a novel mechanism of solar light driven thermocatalysis for the Ce ion substituted OMS-2 catalyst. The reason why the Ce ion substituted OMS-2 catalyst exhibits much higher catalytic activity than pure OMS-2 and CeO2/OMS-2 nano composite under the full solar spectrum irradiation is discussed.The nanostructured Ce ion substituted cryptomelane-type octahedral molecular sieve (OMS-2) catalyst exhibits strong absorption in the entire solar spectrum region. The Ce ion substituted OMS-2 catalyst can efficiently transform the absorbed solar energy to thermal energy, resulting in a considerable increase of temperature. By combining the efficient photothermal conversion and thermocatalytic activity of the Ce ion substituted OMS-2 catalyst, we carried out full solar spectrum, visible-infrared, and infrared light driven catalysis with extremely high efficiency. Under the irradiation of full solar spectrum, visible-infrared, and infrared light, the Ce ion substituted OMS-2 catalyst exhibits extremely high catalytic activity and excellent durability for the oxidation of volatile organic pollutants

  16. Acceleration and loss of relativistic electrons during small geomagnetic storms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, B R; Millan, R M; Reeves, G D; Friedel, R H W

    2015-12-16

    Past studies of radiation belt relativistic electrons have favored active storm time periods, while the effects of small geomagnetic storms (Dst > -50 nT) have not been statistically characterized. In this timely study, given the current weak solar cycle, we identify 342 small storms from 1989 through 2000 and quantify the corresponding change in relativistic electron flux at geosynchronous orbit. Surprisingly, small storms can be equally as effective as large storms at enhancing and depleting fluxes. Slight differences exist, as small storms are 10% less likely to result in flux enhancement and 10% more likely to result in flux depletion than large storms. Nevertheless, it is clear that neither acceleration nor loss mechanisms scale with storm drivers as would be expected. Small geomagnetic storms play a significant role in radiation belt relativistic electron dynamics and provide opportunities to gain new insights into the complex balance of acceleration and loss processes.

  17. Examples of storm impacts on barrier islands: Chapter 4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plant, Nathaniel G.; Doran, Kara; Stockdon, Hilary F.

    2017-01-01

    This chapter focuses on the morphologic variability of barrier islands and on the differences in storm response. It describes different types of barrier island response to individual storms, as well as the integrated response of barrier islands to many storms. The chapter considers case study on the Chandeleur Island chain, where a decadal time series of island elevation measurements have documented a wide range of barrier island responses to storms and long-term processes that are representative of barrier island behaviour at many other locations. These islands are low elevation, extremely vulnerable to storms and exhibit a diversity of storm responses. Additionally, this location experiences a moderately high rate of relative sea-level rise, increasing its vulnerability to the combined impacts of storms and long-term erosional processes. Understanding how natural processes, including storm impacts and intervening recovery periods interact with man-made restoration processes is also broadly relevant to understand the natural and human response to future storms.

  18. Development and Evaluation of Storm Surge Ensemble Forecasting for the Philippines Using JMA Storm Surge Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lapidez, J. P. B.; Tablazon, J. P.; Lagmay, A. M. F. A.; Suarez, J. K. B.; Santiago, J. T.

    2014-12-01

    The Philippines is one of the countries most vulnerable to storm surge. It is located in the North-western Pacific basin which is the most active basin in the planet. An average of 20 tropical cyclones enters the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) every year. The archipelagic nature of the country with regions having gently sloping coasts and shallow bays also contribute to the formation of extreme surges. Last November 2013, storm surge brought by super typhoon Haiyan severely damaged several coastal regions in the Visayan Islands. Haiyan left more than 6 300 casualties and damages amounting to more than $ 2 billion. Extreme storm surge events such as this highlight the need to establish a storm surge early warning system for the country. This study explores the development and evaluation of storm surge ensemble forecasting for the Philippines using the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) storm surge model. 36-hour, 24-hour, and 12-hour tropical cyclone forecasts are used to generate an ensemble storm surge forecast to give the most probable storm surge height at a specific point brought by an incoming tropical cyclone. The result of the storm surge forecast is compared to tide gauge record to evaluate the accuracy. The total time of computation and dissemination of forecast result is also examined to assess the feasibility of using the JMA storm surge model for operational purposes.

  19. Structure, Propagation and Expansion of a CME-Driven Shock in the Heliosphere: A Revisit of the 2012 July 23 Extreme Storm

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Ying D; Zhu, Bei; Luhmann, Janet G; Vourlidas, Angelos

    2016-01-01

    We examine the structure, propagation and expansion of the shock associated with the 2012 July 23 extreme coronal mass ejection (CME). Characteristics of the shock determined from multi-point imaging observations are compared to in situ measurements at different locations and a complex radio type II burst, which according to our definition has multiple branches that may not all be fundamental-harmonic related. The white-light shock signature can be modeled reasonably well by a spherical structure and was expanding backward even on the opposite side of the Sun. The expansion of the shock, which was roughly self-similar after the first $\\sim$1.5 hours from launch, largely dominated over the translation of the shock center for the time period of interest. Our study also suggests a bow-shock morphology around the nose at later times due to the outward motion in combination with the expansion of the ejecta. The shock decayed and failed to reach Mercury in the backward direction and STEREO B and Venus in the latera...

  20. Geomagnetic Storm Sudden Commencements

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Storm Sudden Commencements (ssc) 1868 to present: STORM1 and STORM2 Lists: (Some text here is taken from the International Association of Geomagnetism and Aeronomy...

  1. Fabrication and characterization of a nanostructured TiO2/In2S3-Sb2S3/CuSCN extremely thin absorber (eta) solar cell

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huerta-Flores, Alí M.; García-Gómez, Nora A.; de la Parra-Arciniega, Salomé M.; Sánchez, Eduardo M.

    2016-08-01

    In this work we report the successful assembly and characterization of a TiO2/In2S3-Sb2S3/CuSCN extremely thin absorber solar cell. Nanostructured TiO2 deposited by screen printing on an ITO substrate was used as an n-type electrode. An ∼80 nm extremely thin layer of the system In2S3-Sb2S3 deposited by successive ionic layer adsorption and a reaction (silar) method was used as an absorber. The voids were filled with p-type CuSCN and the entire assembly was completed with a gold contact. The solar cell fabricated with this heterostructure showed an energy conversion efficiency of 4.9%, which is a promising result in the development of low cost and simple fabrication of solar cells.

  2. Solar Abundances of Rock Forming Elements, Extreme Oxygen and Hydrogen in a Young Polluted White Dwarf

    CERN Document Server

    Farihi, J; Zuckerman, B; Vican, L; Gänsicke, B T; Smith, N; Walth, G; Breedt, E

    2016-01-01

    The Teff = 20,800 K white dwarf WD 1536+520 is shown to have broadly solar abundances of the major rock forming elements O, Mg, Al, Si, Ca, and Fe, together with a strong relative depletion in the volatile elements C and S. In addition to the highest metal abundances observed to date, including log(O/He) = -3.4, the helium-dominated atmosphere has an exceptional hydrogen abundance at log(H/He) = -1.7. Within the uncertainties, the metal-to-metal ratios are consistent with the accretion of an H2O-rich and rocky parent body, an interpretation supported by the anomalously high trace hydrogen. The mixed atmosphere yields unusually short diffusion timescales for a helium atmosphere white dwarf, of no more than a few hundred yr, and equivalent to those in a much cooler, hydrogen-rich star. The overall heavy element abundances of the disrupted parent body deviate modestly from a bulk Earth pattern, and suggest the deposition of some core-like material. The total inferred accretion rate is 4.2e9 g/s, and at least 4 t...

  3. Wavelength-Scale Structures as Extremely High Haze Films for Efficient Polymer Solar Cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ham, Juyoung; Dong, Wan Jae; Jung, Gwan Ho; Lee, Jong-Lam

    2016-03-01

    Wavelength-scale inverted pyramid structures with low reflectance and excellent haze have been designed for application to polymer solar cells (PSCs). The wavelength-scale structured haze films are fabricated on the back surface of glass without damages to organic active layer by using a soft lithographic technique with etched GaN molds. With a rigorous coupled-wave analysis of optical modeling, we find the shift of resonance peaks with the increase of pattern's diameter. Wavelength-scale structures could provide the number of resonances at the long wavelength spectrum (λ = 650-800 nm), yielding enhancement of power conversion efficiency (PCE) in the PSCs. Compared with a flat device (PCE = 7.12%, Jsc = 15.6 mA/cm(2)), improved PCE of 8.41% is achieved in a haze film, which is mainly due to the increased short circuit current density (Jsc) of 17.5 mA/cm(2). Hence, it opens up exciting opportunities for a variety of PSCs with wavelength-scale structures to further improve performance, simplify complicated process, and reduce costs.

  4. STORM IN A {sup T}EACUP{sup :} A RADIO-QUIET QUASAR WITH ≈10 kpc RADIO-EMITTING BUBBLES AND EXTREME GAS KINEMATICS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harrison, C. M.; Thomson, A. P.; Alexander, D. M.; Edge, A. C.; Hogan, M. T.; Swinbank, A. M. [Department of Physics, Durham University, South Road, Durham DH1 3LE (United Kingdom); Bauer, F. E. [Instituto de Astrofísica, Facultad de Física, Pontifica Universidad Católica de Chile, 306, Santiago 22 (Chile); Mullaney, J. R., E-mail: c.m.harrison@mail.com [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S7 3RH (United Kingdom)

    2015-02-10

    We present multi-frequency (1-8 GHz) Very Large Array data, combined with VIsible MultiObject Spectrograph integral field unit data and Hubble Space Telescope imaging, of a z = 0.085 radio-quiet type 2 quasar (with L {sub 1.4} {sub GHz} ≈ 5 × 10{sup 23} W Hz{sup –1} and L {sub AGN} ≈ 2 × 10{sup 45} erg s{sup –1}). Due to the morphology of its emission-line region, the target (J1430+1339) has been referred to as the ''Teacup'' active galactic nucleus (AGN) in the literature. We identify ''bubbles'' of radio emission that are extended ≈10-12 kpc to both the east and west of the nucleus. The edge of the brighter eastern bubble is co-spatial with an arc of luminous ionized gas. We also show that the ''Teacup'' AGN hosts a compact radio structure, located ≈0.8 kpc from the core position, at the base of the eastern bubble. This radio structure is co-spatial with an ionized outflow with an observed velocity of v = –740 km s{sup –1}. This is likely to correspond to a jet, or possibly a quasar wind, interacting with the interstellar medium at this position. The large-scale radio bubbles appear to be inflated by the central AGN, which indicates that the AGN can also interact with the gas on ≳ 10 kpc scales. Our study highlights that even when a quasar is formally ''radio-quiet'' the radio emission can be extremely effective for observing the effects of AGN feedback.

  5. Storm in a "Teacup": A Radio-quiet Quasar with ≈10 kpc Radio-emitting Bubbles and Extreme Gas Kinematics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, C. M.; Thomson, A. P.; Alexander, D. M.; Bauer, F. E.; Edge, A. C.; Hogan, M. T.; Mullaney, J. R.; Swinbank, A. M.

    2015-02-01

    We present multi-frequency (1-8 GHz) Very Large Array data, combined with VIsible MultiObject Spectrograph integral field unit data and Hubble Space Telescope imaging, of a z = 0.085 radio-quiet type 2 quasar (with L 1.4 GHz ≈ 5 × 1023 W Hz-1 and L AGN ≈ 2 × 1045 erg s-1). Due to the morphology of its emission-line region, the target (J1430+1339) has been referred to as the "Teacup" active galactic nucleus (AGN) in the literature. We identify "bubbles" of radio emission that are extended ≈10-12 kpc to both the east and west of the nucleus. The edge of the brighter eastern bubble is co-spatial with an arc of luminous ionized gas. We also show that the "Teacup" AGN hosts a compact radio structure, located ≈0.8 kpc from the core position, at the base of the eastern bubble. This radio structure is co-spatial with an ionized outflow with an observed velocity of v = -740 km s-1. This is likely to correspond to a jet, or possibly a quasar wind, interacting with the interstellar medium at this position. The large-scale radio bubbles appear to be inflated by the central AGN, which indicates that the AGN can also interact with the gas on >~ 10 kpc scales. Our study highlights that even when a quasar is formally "radio-quiet" the radio emission can be extremely effective for observing the effects of AGN feedback.

  6. Plasma dynamics in solar macrospicules from high-cadence extreme-UV observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loboda, I. P.; Bogachev, S. A.

    2017-01-01

    Macrospicules are relatively large spicule-like formations found mainly over the polar coronal holes when observing in the transition region spectral lines. In this study, we took advantage of the two short series of observations in the He ii 304 Å line obtained by the TESIS solar observatory with a cadence of up to 3.5 s to study the dynamics of macrospicules in unprecedented detail. We used a one-dimensional hydrodynamic method based on the assumption of their axial symmetry and on a simple radiative transfer model to reconstruct the evolution of the internal velocity field of 18 macrospicules from this dataset. Besides the internal dynamics, we studied the motion of the apparent end points of the same 18 macrospicules and found 15 of them to follow parabolic trajectories with high precision which correspond closely to the obtained velocity fields. We found that in a clear, unperturbed case these macrospicules move with a constant deceleration inconsistent with a purely ballistic motion and have roughly the same velocity along their entire axis, with the obtained decelerations typically ranging from 160 to 230 m s-2, and initial velocities from 80 to 130 km s-1. We also found a propagating acoustic wave for one of the macrospicules and a clear linear correlation between the initial velocities of the macrospicules and their decelerations, which indicates that they may be driven by magneto-acoustic shocks. Finally, we inverted our previous method by taking velocities from the parabolic fits to give rough estimates of the percentage of mass lost by 12 of the macrospicules. We found that typically from 10 to 30% of their observed mass fades out of the line (presumably being heated to higher coronal temperatures) with three exceptions of 50% and one of 80%.

  7. Microorganisms in extreme environments with a view to astrobiology in the outer solar system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seckbach, Joseph; Chela-Flores, Julian

    2015-09-01

    We review the various manifestations of the evolution of life in extreme environments. We review those aspects of extremophiles that are most relevant for astrobiology. We are aware that geothermal energy triggering sources of heat in oceanic environments are not unique to our planet, a fact that was exposed by the Voyager mission images of volcanic activity on Io, the Jovian moon. Such activity exceeded by far what was known form terrestrial geology. The science of astrobiology has considered the possible presence of several moon oceans in the vicinity of both giant gas and icy planets. These watery environments include, not only Europa (strongly suggested by data from the Galileo mission), but the Voyager flybys exposed, not only the unusual geothermal activity on Io, but also the possible presence of subsurface oceans and some geothermal activity on the Neptune's moon Triton. More recently, calculations of Hussmann and coworkers with available data do not exclude that even Uranus moons may be candidates for bearing subsurface oceans. These possibilities invite a challenge that we gladly welcome, of preliminary discussions of habitability of extremophiles in so far novel environments for the science of astrobiology. Nevertheless, such exploration is currently believed to be feasible with the new generations of missions suggested for the time window of 2030 - 2040, or even earlier. We are envisaging, not only the current exploration of the moons of Saturn, but in the coming years we expect to go beyond to Uranus and Neptune to include dwarf planets and trans-neptunian worlds. Consequently, it is necessary to begin questioning whether the Europa-like conditions for the evolution of microorganisms are repeatable elsewhere. At present three new missions are in the process of being formulated, including the selection of payloads that will be necessary for the exploration of the various so far unexplored moons.

  8. Effects of disturbed electric fields in the low-latitude and equatorial ionosphere during the 2015 St. Patrick's Day storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuai, Jiawei; Liu, Libo; Liu, Jing; Sripathi, S.; Zhao, Biqiang; Chen, Yiding; Le, Huijun; Hu, Lianhuan

    2016-09-01

    The 2015 St. Patrick's Day geomagnetic storm with SYM-H value of -233 nT is an extreme space weather event in the current 24th solar cycle. In this work, we investigated the main mechanisms of the profound ionospheric disturbances over equatorial and low latitudes in the Asian-Australian sector and the American sector during this super storm event. The results reveal that the disturbed electric fields, which comprise penetration electric fields (PEFs) and disturbance dynamo electric fields (DDEFs), play a decisive role in the ionospheric storm effects in low latitude and equatorial regions. PEFs occur on 17 March in both the American sector and the Asian-Australian sector. The effects of DDEFs are also remarkable in the two longitudinal sectors. Both the DDEFs and PEFs show the notable local time dependence, which causes the sector differences in the characteristics of the disturbed electric fields. This differences would further lead to the sector differences in the low-latitude ionospheric response during this storm. The negative storm effects caused by the long-duration DDEFs are intense over the Asian-Australian sector, while the repeated elevations of hmF2 and the equatorial ionization anomaly intensifications caused by the multiple strong PEFs are more distinctive over the American sector. Especially, the storm time F3 layer features are caught on 17 March in the American equatorial region, proving the effects of the multiple strong eastward PEFs.

  9. An Extreme Solar Event of 20 January 2005: Properties of the Flare and the Origin of Energetic Particles

    CERN Document Server

    Grechnev, V V; Chertok, I M; Uralov, A M; Nakajima, H; Altyntsev, A T; Belov, A V; Yushkov, B Yu; Kuznetsov, S N; Kashapova, L K; Meshalkina, N S; Prestage, N P

    2008-01-01

    The extreme solar and SEP event of 20 January 2005 is analyzed from two perspectives. Firstly, we study features of the main phase of the flare, when the strongest emissions from microwaves up to 200 MeV gamma-rays were observed. Secondly, we relate our results to a long-standing controversy on the origin of SEPs arriving at Earth, i.e., acceleration in flares, or shocks ahead of CMEs. All emissions from microwaves up to 2.22 MeV line gamma-rays during the main flare phase originated within a compact structure located just above sunspot umbrae. A huge radio burst with a frequency maximum at 30 GHz was observed, indicating the presence of a large number of energetic electrons in strong magnetic fields. Thus, protons and electrons responsible for flare emissions during its main phase were accelerated within the magnetic field of the active region. The leading, impulsive parts of the GLE, and highest-energy gamma-rays identified with pi^0-decay emission, are similar and correspond in time. The origin of the pi^0...

  10. Extreme Ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): Overview of Science Objectives, Instrument Design, Data Products, and Model Developments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woods, T. N.; Eparvier, F. G.; Hock, R.; Jones, A. R.; Woodraska, D.; Judge, D.; Didkovsky, L.; Lean, J.; Mariska, J.; Warren, H.; McMullin, D.; Chamberlin, P.; Berthiaume, G.; Bailey, S.; Fuller-Rowell, T.; Sojka, J.; Tobiska, W. K.; Viereck, R.

    2010-01-01

    The highly variable solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiation is the major energy input to the Earth's upper atmosphere, strongly impacting the geospace environment, affecting satellite operations, communications, and navigation. The Extreme ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE) onboard the NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) will measure the solar EUV irradiance from 0.1 to 105 nm with unprecedented spectral resolution (0.1 nm), temporal cadence (ten seconds), and accuracy (20%). EVE includes several irradiance instruments: The Multiple EUV Grating Spectrographs (MEGS)-A is a grazingincidence spectrograph that measures the solar EUV irradiance in the 5 to 37 nm range with 0.1-nm resolution, and the MEGS-B is a normal-incidence, dual-pass spectrograph that measures the solar EUV irradiance in the 35 to 105 nm range with 0.1-nm resolution. To provide MEGS in-flight calibration, the EUV SpectroPhotometer (ESP) measures the solar EUV irradiance in broadbands between 0.1 and 39 nm, and a MEGS-Photometer measures the Sun s bright hydrogen emission at 121.6 nm. The EVE data products include a near real-time space-weather product (Level 0C), which provides the solar EUV irradiance in specific bands and also spectra in 0.1-nm intervals with a cadence of one minute and with a time delay of less than 15 minutes. The EVE higher-level products are Level 2 with the solar EUV irradiance at higher time cadence (0.25 seconds for photometers and ten seconds for spectrographs) and Level 3 with averages of the solar irradiance over a day and over each one-hour period. The EVE team also plans to advance existing models of solar EUV irradiance and to operationally use the EVE measurements in models of Earth s ionosphere and thermosphere. Improved understanding of the evolution of solar flares and extending the various models to incorporate solar flare events are high priorities for the EVE team.

  11. Very short-term reactive forecasting of the solar ultraviolet index using an extreme learning machine integrated with the solar zenith angle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deo, Ravinesh C; Downs, Nathan; Parisi, Alfio V; Adamowski, Jan F; Quilty, John M

    2017-05-01

    Exposure to erythemally-effective solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR) that contributes to malignant keratinocyte cancers and associated health-risk is best mitigated through innovative decision-support systems, with global solar UV index (UVI) forecast necessary to inform real-time sun-protection behaviour recommendations. It follows that the UVI forecasting models are useful tools for such decision-making. In this study, a model for computationally-efficient data-driven forecasting of diffuse and global very short-term reactive (VSTR) (10-min lead-time) UVI, enhanced by drawing on the solar zenith angle (θs) data, was developed using an extreme learning machine (ELM) algorithm. An ELM algorithm typically serves to address complex and ill-defined forecasting problems. UV spectroradiometer situated in Toowoomba, Australia measured daily cycles (0500-1700h) of UVI over the austral summer period. After trialling activations functions based on sine, hard limit, logarithmic and tangent sigmoid and triangular and radial basis networks for best results, an optimal ELM architecture utilising logarithmic sigmoid equation in hidden layer, with lagged combinations of θs as the predictor data was developed. ELM's performance was evaluated using statistical metrics: correlation coefficient (r), Willmott's Index (WI), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (ENS), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE) between observed and forecasted UVI. Using these metrics, the ELM model's performance was compared to that of existing methods: multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS), M5 Model Tree, and a semi-empirical (Pro6UV) clear sky model. Based on RMSE and MAE values, the ELM model (0.255, 0.346, respectively) outperformed the MARS (0.310, 0.438) and M5 Model Tree (0.346, 0.466) models. Concurring with these metrics, the Willmott's Index for the ELM, MARS and M5 Model Tree models were 0.966, 0.942 and 0.934, respectively. About 57% of the ELM model's absolute

  12. CyberStorm III

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Luiijf, H.A.M.; et al

    2010-01-01

    Projectteam Cyber Storm III - De Verenigde Staten organiseerden de afgelopen jaren een reeks grootschalige ICT-crisisoefeningen met de naam Cyber Storm. Cyber Storm III is de derde oefening in de reeks. Het scenario van Cyber Storm III staat in het teken van grootschalige ICT-verstoringen, waarbij n

  13. Modeling of Ionosphere Effects of Geomagnetic Storm Sequence on September 9-14, 2005 in View of Solar Flares and Dependence of Model Input Parameters from AE-and Kp-indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klimenko, Maxim; Klimenko, Vladimir; Ratovsky, Konstantin; Goncharenko, Larisa

    Earlier by Klimenko et al., 2009 under carrying out the calculations of the ionospheric effects of storm sequence on September 9-14, 2005 the model input parameters (potential difference through polar caps, field-aligned currents of the second region and particle precipitation fluxes and energy) were set as function of Kp-index of geomagnetic activity. The analyses of obtained results show that the reasons of quantitative distinctions of calculation results and observations can be: the use of 3 hour Kp-index at the setting of time dependence of model input parameters; the dipole approach of geomagnetic field; the absence in model calculations the effects of the solar flares, which were taken place during the considered period. In the given study the model input parameters were set as function of AE-and Kp-indices of geomagnetic activity according to different empirical models and morphological representations Feshchenko and Maltsev, 2003; Cheng et al., 2008; Zhang and Paxton, 2008. At that, we taken into account the shift of field-aligned currents of the second region to the lower latitudes as by Sojka et al., 1994 and 30 min. time delay of variations of the field-aligned currents of second region relative to the variations of the potential difference through polar caps at the storm sudden commencement phase. Also we taken into account the ionospheric effects of solar flares. Calculation of ionospheric effects of storm sequence has been carried out with use of the Global Self-Consistent Model of the Thermosphere, Ionosphere and Protonosphere (GSM TIP) developed in WD IZMIRAN (Nam-galadze et al., 1988). We carried out the comparison of calculation results with experimental data. This study is supported by RFBR grant 08-05-00274. References Cheng Z.W., Shi J.K., Zhang T.L., Dunlop M. and Liu Z.X. Relationship between FAC at plasma sheet boundary layers and AE index during storms from August to October, 2001. Sci. China Ser. E-Tech. Sci., 2008, Vol. 51, No. 7, 842

  14. Geomagnetic storms link to the mortality rate in the Smolyan region for the period 1988--2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simeonova, Siyka G. 1; Georgieva, Radostina C. 2; Dimitrova, Boryana H. 2; Slavcheva, Radka G. 2; Kerimova, Bojena P. 2; Georgiev, Tsvetan B. 34

    We present correlations and trends of 10 parameters of annual mortality rate (1 to common mortality rate, 5 to cardiovascular reasons and 4 to "accidental" reasons (car accidents, suicides, infections)) with respect to 6 parameters of annual solar and geomagnetic activity (Wolf index, number of geomagnetic storms, duration of the storms, amplitude of the storms). During the period of observation, characterized by a 3-4-fold decrease of the mean geomagnetic activity (in terms of the number and the duration of the storms) and with a strong variations of the amplitude of the storms (about an almost constant mean values for the period), there is a 1.3-fold decrease in the urban population, a 1.5-fold increase of the common mortality rate, a 1.8-fold increase of the cardiovascular mortality rate and a 1.1-fold decrease of the "accidental" mortality rates. During the years 2003-2005 we observe about 2-fold temporary increase in the storm amplitudes. During the years 2007-2008, characterized by extremely low geomagnetic activity, we observe a surprising temporary increase of the common and the cardiovascular mortality rates 1.1 and 1.3-fold, respectively (Figures 1-4). We point out 3 main results. (1) The available data shows notable increase in the mortality rates while there is generally a decrease of the solar or geomagnetic activity during the studied period (Figures 5-9). We explain this anti-correlation with the domination of the increasing mortality rates as an effect of the advance in the mean age of the population (due to immigration of young people and decrease of new-borns), hiding an eventual display of the solar and geomagnetic influence on the mortality rates. Using this data we can not reveal influence of the long-time (10-20 years) change of the average solar and geomagnetic activity on the mortality rate. (2) Excluding the unusual years 2007 and 2008, we establish that with respect to the years with low geomagnetic activity (1993, 1995, 1996, 1999), in

  15. Displacement of large-scale open solar magnetic fields from the zone of active longitudes and the heliospheric storm of November 3-10, 2004: 2. "Explosion" of singularity and dynamics of sunspot formation and energy release

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivanov, K. G.

    2010-12-01

    A more detailed scenario of one stage (August-November 2004) of the quasibiennial MHD process "Origination ... and dissipation of the four-sector structure of the solar magnetic field" during the decline phase of cycle 23 has been constructed. It has been indicated that the following working hypothesis on the propagation of an MHD disturbance westward (in the direction of solar rotation) and eastward (toward the zone of active longitudes) with the displacement of the large-scale open solar magnetic field (LOSMF) from this zone can be constructed based on LOSMF model representations and data on sunspot formation, flares, active filaments, and coronal ejections as well as on the estimated contribution of sporadic energy release to the flare luminosity and kinetic energy of ejections: (1) The "explosion" of the LOSMF singularity and the formation in the explosion zone of an anemone active region (AR), which produced the satellite sunspot formation that continued west and east of the "anemone," represented a powerful and energy-intensive source of MHD processes at this stage. (2) This resulted in the origination of two "governing" large-scale MHD processes, which regulated various usual manifestations of solar activity: the fast LOSMF along the neutral line in the solar atmosphere, strongly affecting the zone of active longitudes, and the slow LOSMF in the outer layers of the convection zone. The fronts of these processes were identified by powerful (about 1031 erg) coronal ejections. (3) The collision of a wave reflected from the zone of active longitudes with the eastern front of the hydromagnetic impulse of the convection zone resulted in an increase in LOSMF magnetic fluxes, origination of an active sector boundary in the zone of active longitudes, shear-convergent motions, and generation and destabilization of the flare-productive AR 10696 responsible for the heliospheric storm of November 3-10, 2004.

  16. NCDC Storm Events Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Storm Data is provided by the National Weather Service (NWS) and contain statistics on personal injuries and damage estimates. Storm Data covers the United States of...

  17. Modeling atmospheric effects of the September 1859 Solar Flare

    CERN Document Server

    Thomas, B; Melott, A; Thomas, Brian; Jackman, Charles; Melott, Adrian

    2006-01-01

    We have modeled atmospheric effects, especially ozone depletion, due to a solar proton event which probably accompanied the extreme magnetic storm of 1-2 September 1859. We use an inferred proton fluence for this event as estimated from nitrate levels in Greenland ice cores. We present results showing production of odd nitrogen compounds and their impact on ozone. We also compute rainout of nitrate in our model and compare to values from ice core data.

  18. Interactive modeling of storm impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Rooijen, A.; Baart, F.; Roelvink, J. A.; Donchyts, G.; Scheel, F.; de Boer, W.

    2014-12-01

    In the past decades the impact of storms on the coastal zone has increasingly drawn the attention of policy makers and coastal planners, engineers and researchers. The mean reason for this interest is the high density of the world's population living near the ocean, in combination with climate change. Due to sea level rise and extremer weather conditions, many of the world's coastlines are becoming more vulnerable to the potential of flooding. Currently it is common practice to predict storm impact using physics-based numerical models. The numerical model utilizes several inputs (e.g. bathymetry, waves, surge) to calculate the impact on the coastline. Traditionally, the numerical modeller takes the following three steps: schematization/model setup, running and post-processing. This process generally has a total feedback time in the order of hours to days, and is suitable for so-called confirmatory modelling.However, often models are applied as an exploratory tool, in which the effect of e.g. different hydraulic conditions, or measures is investigated. The above described traditional work flow is not the most efficient method for exploratory modelling. Interactive modelling lets users adjust a simulation while running. For models typically used for storm impact studies (e.g. XBeach, Delft3D, D-Flow FM), the user can for instance change the storm surge level, wave conditions, or add a measure such as a nourishment or a seawall. The model will take the adjustments into account immediately, and will directly compute the effect. Using this method, tools can be developed in which stakeholders (e.g. coastal planners, policy makers) are in control and together evaluate ideas by interacting with the model. Here we will show initial results for interactive modelling with a storm impact model.

  19. Large-scale coastal impact induced by a catastrophic storm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fruergaard, Mikkel; Andersen, Thorbjørn Joest; Johannessen, Peter N

    breaching. Our results demonstrate that violent, millennial-scale storms can trigger significant large-scale and long-term changes on barrier coasts, and that coastal changes assumed to take place over centuries or even millennia may occur in association with a single extreme storm event....

  20. Reliable Averages and Risky Extremes - Analysis of spatio-temporal variability in solar irradiance and persistent cloud cover patterns over Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahl, Annelen; Nguyen, Viet-Anh; Sarrasin, Karine; Lehning, Michael

    2016-04-01

    With the perspective of Switzerland's phase-out from nuclear energy, solar energy potential may take a leading role for the country's future in renewable energy. Unlike nuclear power stations, photovoltaic (PV) production is prone to intermittency as it depends on the immediate solar irradiance, which fluctuates in space and time. If a large percentage of Switzerland's electricity was to be derived from solar radiation, stochastic fluctuations pose a risk to the robust supply and healthy function of the electricity network. For most efficient PV planning and siting, it is hence imperative to understand and quantify this variability in solar radiation, in order to anticipate average production as well as worst-case scenarios. Based on 12 years of satellite derived, spatially distributed data of daily average surface incoming shortwave radiation (SIS) this work analyses standard statistics, spatial correlation patterns and extreme conditions of cloud cover over Switzerland. Having compared different irradiance products, we decided to use the SIS product captured on the Meteosat Second Generation satellites, because it provides the most reliable snow/cloud discrimination, which is essential for spatial analysis over alpine terrain. Particularly in regions with high elevation differences, correlation between cloud cover and elevation undergo an annual cycle. In winter more clouds are found in the valleys, while in summer convective clouds dominate at higher elevations. The highest average irradiance values occur in the southern parts of the country, and make the cantons of Vallais, Tessin and Grison ideal candidate locations for PV installations. Simultaneously the Tessin shows a higher risk of periods with long lasting cloud cover, which would discourage from relying too much on solar power in that area. However looking at the question of suitability by studying spatial and temporal correlations of extremes, we see that the Tessin appears to be comparably decoupled

  1. Observations of solar coronal holes using radio (GMRT & GRH), extreme ultra-violet (SOHO-EIT) and X-ray (GOES-SXI) imaging instruments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madsen, F. R. H.; Ramesh, R.; Ananthakrishnan, S.; Subramanian, P.; Cecatto, J. R.; Sawant, H. S.

    Solar observations with the Giant Metrewave Radio Telescope GMRT on 06 04 2005 at 150 MHz show evidence for a radio counterpart to a Coronal Hole CH observed as a depression in the radio brightness distribution on the solar disk In this work we compare the structural details of the radio CH using the GMRT observations and the Extreme Ultra Violet EUV and Soft X-Ray SXR images obtained with the SoHO EIT and GOES SXI respectively We also study the density temperature inside the same CH using 115 MHz data from the Gauribidanur Radioheliograph GRH We present and discuss our results for the radio counterpart to this CH focusing on the comparison of its position and size as determined from EUV and SXR with the parameters determined from the GMRT map and on the determination of plasma parameters from the GRH map

  2. A new observational approach to investigate the heliospheric interstellar wind interface - The study of extreme and far ultraviolet resonantly scattered solar radiation from neon, oxygen, carbon and nitrogen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowyer, Stuart; Fahr, Hans J.

    1990-01-01

    One of the outstanding uncertainties in the understanding of the heliosphere concerns the character of the interaction between the outflowing solar wind and the interstellar medium. A new possibility for obtaining information on this topic is suggested. The cosmically abundant elements neon, oxygen, carbon, and nitrogen will be affected differently at their interface passage depending upon the character of this region. Consequently, the distribution of these atoms and their ions will vary within the inner heliosphere. The study of resonantly scattered solar radiation from these species will then provide information on the nature of the interface. A preliminary evaluation of this approach has been carried out, and the results are encouraging. The relevant lines to be studied are in the extreme and far ulraviolet. The existing data in these bands are reviewed; unfortunately, past instrumentation has had insufficient resolution and sensitivity to provide useful information. The capabilities of future approved missions with capabilities in this area are evaluated.

  3. An exploration of the effectiveness of artificial mini-magnetospheres as a potential Solar Storm shelter for long term human space missions

    CERN Document Server

    Bamford, Ruth; Bradford, John; Todd, Tom N; Stafford-Allen, Robin; Alves, E Paulo; Silva, Luis; Collingwood, Cheryl; Crawford, Ian A; Bingham, Robert

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we explore the effectiveness of an artificial mini-magnetosphere as a potential radiation shelter for long term human space missions. Our study includes the differences that the plasma environment makes to the efficiency of the shielding from the high energy charged particle component of solar and cosmic rays, which radically alters the power requirements. The incoming electrostatic charges are shielded by fields supported by the self captured environmental plasma of the solar wind, potentially augmented with additional density. The artificial magnetic field generated on board acts as the means of confinement and control. Evidence for similar behaviour of electromagnetic fields and ionised particles in interplanetary space can be gained by the example of the enhanced shielding effectiveness of naturally occurring "mini-magnetospheres" on the moon. The shielding effect of surface magnetic fields of the order of ~100s nanoTesla is sufficient to provide effective shielding from solar proton bombard...

  4. External perforated window Solar Screens: The effect of screen depth and perforation ratio on energy performance in extreme desert environments

    KAUST Repository

    Sherif, A.

    2012-09-01

    In hot arid desert environments, the solar radiation passing through windows increases the cooling loads and the energy consumption of buildings. Shading of windows can reduce these loads. Unlike the woven solar screens, wooden solar screens have a thickness that provides selective shading properties. Perforated wooden solar screens were traditionally used for windows shading. Developing modern types of these shading systems can lead to significant energy savings. The paper addresses the influence of changing the perforation percentage and depth of these screens on the annual energy loads, hence defining the optimum depth/perforation configurations for various window orientations. Series of experiments were performed using the EnergyPlus simulation software for a typical residential building in the Kharga Oasis, located in the Egyptian desert. A range of perforation percentages and depths were tested. Conclusions prove that external fixed deep perforated solar screens could effectively achieve energy savings up to 30% of the total energy consumption in the West and South orientations. Optimum range of depths and perforation percentages were recommended. These are: 80-90% perforation rate and 1:1 depth/opening width ratio. These lighter and deeper solar screen configurations were found to be more efficient in energy consumption in comparison with the traditional ones. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Subtropical Storm Andrea

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-01-01

    The circling clouds of an intense low-pressure system sat off the southeast coast of the United States on May 8, 2007, when the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra satellite captured this image. By the following morning, the storm developed enough to be classified as a subtropical storm, a storm that forms outside of the tropics, but has many of the characteristics--hurricane-force winds, driving rains, low pressure, and sometimes an eye--of a tropical storm. Although it arrived several weeks shy of the official start of the hurricane season (June 1), Subtropical Storm Andrea became the first named storm of the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season. The storm has the circular shape of a tropical cyclone in this image, but lacks the tight organization seen in more powerful storms. By May 9, the storm's winds reached 75 kilometers per hour (45 miles per hour), and the storm was not predicted to get any stronger, said the National Hurricane Center. Though Subtropical Storm Andrea was expected to remain offshore, its strong winds and high waves pummeled coastal states, prompting a tropical storm watch. The winds fueled wild fires (marked with red boxes) in Georgia and Florida. The wind-driven flames generated thick plumes of smoke that concentrated in a gray-brown mass over Tampa Bay, Florida. Unfortunately for Georgia and Florida, which are experiencing moderate to severe drought, Subtropical Storm Andrea was not predicted to bring significant rain to the region right away, according to reports on the Washington Post Website.

  6. SWAP OBSERVATIONS OF THE LONG-TERM, LARGE-SCALE EVOLUTION OF THE EXTREME-ULTRAVIOLET SOLAR CORONA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seaton, Daniel B.; De Groof, Anik; Berghmans, David; Nicula, Bogdan [Royal Observatory of Belgium-SIDC, Avenue Circulaire 3, B-1180 Brussels (Belgium); Shearer, Paul [Department of Mathematics, 2074 East Hall, University of Michigan, 530 Church Street, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1043 (United States)

    2013-11-01

    The Sun Watcher with Active Pixels and Image Processing (SWAP) EUV solar telescope on board the Project for On-Board Autonomy 2 spacecraft has been regularly observing the solar corona in a bandpass near 17.4 nm since 2010 February. With a field of view of 54 × 54 arcmin, SWAP provides the widest-field images of the EUV corona available from the perspective of the Earth. By carefully processing and combining multiple SWAP images, it is possible to produce low-noise composites that reveal the structure of the EUV corona to relatively large heights. A particularly important step in this processing was to remove instrumental stray light from the images by determining and deconvolving SWAP's point-spread function from the observations. In this paper, we use the resulting images to conduct the first-ever study of the evolution of the large-scale structure of the corona observed in the EUV over a three year period that includes the complete rise phase of solar cycle 24. Of particular note is the persistence over many solar rotations of bright, diffuse features composed of open magnetic fields that overlie polar crown filaments and extend to large heights above the solar surface. These features appear to be related to coronal fans, which have previously been observed in white-light coronagraph images and, at low heights, in the EUV. We also discuss the evolution of the corona at different heights above the solar surface and the evolution of the corona over the course of the solar cycle by hemisphere.

  7. Storm-time Distortion of the Near Magnetosphere as Revealed by Data-Based Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sitnov, M. I.; Tsyganenko, N. A.

    2007-05-01

    An overview will be given of recent progress in the empirical modeling of the geomagnetic field, focused on the storm-time reconfiguration of the inner magnetosphere. Data-based modeling still remains one of primary techniques for representing and forecasting the structure and dynamics of the inner magnetosphere, an extremely hard task for the first-principle approaches. The storm-time evolution of the inner geomagnetic field was quantitatively modeled by Tsyganenko, Singer, and Kasper [2003], where it was shown for the first time that a global dramatic distortion of the magnetic field during strong storms could penetrate as deep as to only R ~ 3RE. The dynamical aspects of storm-time magnetic field distortions were further elaborated in the TS05 model [Tsyganenko and Sitnov, 2005]. It was shown, in particular, that the magnetospheric response to the solar wind loading is drastically different for major current systems (ring, tail, and field-aligned currents), with the fastest response for field-aligned currents and the slowest for the symmetrical ring current. Finally, to resolve the complex spatial structure of storm-time magnetic field distortions Tsyganenko and Sitnov [2007] elaborated a new model with a high-resolution extensible approximation for the field of equatorial currents combined with a flexible field-aligned current module. The new model was fitted to a new database of space magnetometer data from Geotail, Polar, Cluster, IMP-8, and Goes-8,-9,-10, and -12, as well as concurrent solar wind and IMF data, spanning more than a decade (1995-2005). The new high-resolution magnetic field modeling revealed many interesting effects that were conjectured earlier based on other (largely indirect) methods, such as the pile-up of the magnetic flux near the magnetopause for northward IMF and the strong erosion/depression of the dayside field during intervals of southward IMF. It also revealed a dramatic difference between the global configurations of equatorial

  8. Solar Storms and Mean Spirit under the Perspective of Ethical Literary Criticism%文学伦理学视域下的《北极光》和《卑劣的灵魂》

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    路洁; 邹惠玲

    2014-01-01

    As a Native American writer, Hogan is actively engaged in the Indian affairs for many years. Based on the events that have ever happened in American history, she created Solar Storms and Mean Spirit that revealed the true living situation of the Indians under the control of the white people. Sympathy would be aroused by the Indian people's poverty and bedraggled condition. This research will decode Hogan's Mean Spirit and Solar Storms from the perspective of ethical literary criticism which“is used not only to interpret the moral phenomena recorded in literature on a historical and dialectic basis, but also to make value judgment of those in the present literature based on the moral values in the reality.”( Nie Zhenzhao, “Ethical Literary Criticism: Its Fundaments and Terms” 9 ) It will decipher the ethical choices of the Indians and the white men, to analyze Hogan's discontentment and condemnation of the whites, and to interpret Hogan's dedication and love of Indian culture as well.%霍根是美国印第安女作家,多年来积极从事印第安事务研究。她以美国历史上曾经发生过的事件为背景,创作了《北极光》和《卑劣的灵魂》,讲述了在白人统治之下的印第安人的真实处境。白人的卑劣、自私在小说中一览无余,印第安人的居无宁日、生活困顿,令人心生同情。本文从文学伦理学角度解读这两部小说,分析霍根在小说中展现的印第安人和白人的伦理选择,解读霍根站在印第安立场上对白人伦理的谴责与不满,以及霍根对印第安文化的执着和热爱。

  9. Extreme Arctic cyclones in CMIP5 historical simulations

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Vavrus, Stephen J

    2013-01-01

    .... This study addresses whether such powerful storms are an emerging expression of anthropogenic climate change by investigating simulated extreme Arctic cyclones during the historical period (1850–2005...

  10. Solar Data in the Classroom: the TLRBSE Experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pompea, S. M.; Walker, C. E.; Croft, S. K.; McCarthy, D. W.

    2002-12-01

    The Teacher Leaders in Research Based Astronomy program, based at the National Optical Astronomy Observatory in Tucson, has created an immersive research experience for middle and high school teachers at the National Solar Observatory at Sacramento Peak, New Mexico and provides support for teachers to use real solar data in the classroom. Teachers explored two months of daily multispectral images of the Sun during solar maximum using hard copy images and computer-based image processing tools and data CD-ROMs. These data sets included white light intensity, magnetograms, H-alpha, extreme ultraviolet, and x-ray images that students can explore as introductions to solar activity and to features such as sunspots, prominences, and faculae. The data can be used to trace the evolution of solar phenomena, track solar differential rotation, or to calculate daily sunspot numbers that can be compared with professional counts. Teachers also constructed and aligned low cost solar telescopes that will be used to gather data on sunspots and other white light solar phenomena. This experience with solar data and images provides a direct lead-in to additional professional data sets available online at solar observatory sites. These data can be used to detail the development of energetic events such as coronal mass ejections and to follow solar phenomena over long time periods. Of greatest relevance to the teachers were the solar data that can be correlated with space weather data and regional terrestrial data on magnetic storms, satellite failures, and power outages.

  11. Multi-Fluid Block-Adaptive-Tree Solar Wind Roe-Type Upwind Scheme: Magnetospheric Composition and Dynamics During Geomagnetic Storms, Initial Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gkocer, A.; Toth, G.; Ma, Y.; Gombosi, T.; Zhang, J. C.; Kistler, L. M.

    2010-01-01

    The magnetosphere contains a significant amount of ionospheric O{+}, particularly during geomagnetically active times. The presence of ionospheric plasma in the magnetosphere has a notable impact on magnetospheric composition and processes. We present a new multifluid MHD version of the BATS-R-US model of the magnetosphere to track the fate and consequences of ionospheric outflow. The multi-fluid MHD equations are presented as are the novel techniques for overcoming the formidable challenges associated with solving them. Our new model is then applied to the May 4, 1998 and March 31, 2001 geomagnetic storms. The results are juxtaposed with traditional single- fluid MHD and multispecies MHD simulations from a previous study, thereby allowing us to assess the benefits of using a more complex model with additional physics. We find that our multi-fluid MHD model (with outflow) gives comparable results to the multi-species MHD model (with outflow), including a more strongly negative Dst, reduced CPCP, and a drastically improved magnetic field at geosynchronous orbit, as compared to single-fluid MHD with no outflow. Significant differences in composition and magnetic field are found between the multi-species and multi-fluid approach further away from the Earth. We further demonstrate the ability to explore pressure and bulk velocity differences between H{+} and O(+}, which is not possible when utilizing the other techniques considered.

  12. Weak linkage between the heaviest rainfall and tallest storms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamada, Atsushi; Takayabu, Yukari N; Liu, Chuntao; Zipser, Edward J

    2015-02-24

    Conventionally, the heaviest rainfall has been linked to the tallest, most intense convective storms. However, the global picture of the linkage between extreme rainfall and convection remains unclear. Here we analyse an 11-year record of spaceborne precipitation radar observations and establish that a relatively small fraction of extreme convective events produces extreme rainfall rates in any region of the tropics and subtropics. Robust differences between extreme rainfall and convective events are found in the rainfall characteristics and environmental conditions, irrespective of region; most extreme rainfall events are characterized by less intense convection with intense radar echoes not extending to extremely high altitudes. Rainfall characteristics and environmental conditions both indicate the importance of warm-rain processes in producing extreme rainfall rates. Our results demonstrate that, even in regions where severe convective storms are representative extreme weather events, the heaviest rainfall events are mostly associated with less intense convection.

  13. Storm impacts on small barrier islands

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kroon, Aart; Fruergaard, Mikkel

    The shorelines of the Baltic Sea and the inner coastal waters in Denmark consist of many barrier islands. These sandy barrier islands were mainly formed in the Holocene and are still very dynamic. The present day changes in the morphology are dominantly governed by storm waves and associated high...... changes in this evolution due to changes in the climate and associated sea levels. We analyzed the morphologic evolution of a series of barrier islands over the last decades using maps, aerial photographs and satellite images. This decadal morphologic evolution was coupled to the frequency and intensity...... of the local extreme events. The characterization of the extreme events was based on the joint probability of the extreme water levels and storm waves for the specific sites. The predicted climate change for the Danish waters will lead to higher water levels and an increase of the overwashes on the barrier...

  14. Longitudinal variations of positive dayside ionospheric storms related to recurrent geomagnetic storms

    CERN Document Server

    Dmitriev, A V; Brahmanandam, P S; Chang, L C; Chen, K -T; Tsai, L -C

    2013-01-01

    We have performed an analysis of case events and statistics of positive ionospheric storms in the dayside region of the equatorial ionization anomaly during recurrent geomagnetic storms (RGSs), which dominate in geomagnetic and ionospheric conditions on the declining phase of solar activity in 2004 to 2008. It is shown that total electron content (TEC) has a tendency to minimize before the beginning of RGSs and to peak 3 to 4 days after, i.e. on the RGS recovery phase produced by high-intensity long-duration continuous auroral activity. The maximum of TEC coincides with the maximum of solar wind velocity within high-speed solar wind streams. An analysis of electron content vertical profiles, derived from two independent methods using ionosondes and COSMIC/FORMOSAT-3 radio occultation, showed that in the maximum of an ionospheric storm on 28 March 2008, the F2 layer thickens, NmF2 increases by ~50% and hmF2 elevates by a few tens of kilometers. The response of positive ionospheric storms to solar, heliospheric...

  15. Radiation Belt Storm Probes (RBSP) Payload Safety Introduction Briefing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loftin, Chuck; Lampert, Dianna; Herrburger, Eric; Smith, Clay; Hill, Stuart; VonMehlem, Judi

    2008-01-01

    Mission of the Geospace Radiation Belt Storm Probes (RBSP) is: Gain s cientific understanding (to the point of predictability) of how populations of relativistic electrons and ions in space form or change in response to changes in solar activity and the solar wind.

  16. The Challenge of Predicting the Occurrence of Intense Storms

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Nandita Srivastava

    2006-06-01

    Geomagnetic super-storms of October and November 2003 are compared in order to identify solar and interplanetary variables that influence the magnitude of geomagnetic storms. Although these super-storms (DST < -300 nT) are associated with high speed CMEs, their DST indices show large variation. The most intense storm of November 20, 2003 (DST ∼ -472 nT) had its source in a comparatively small active region and was associated with a relatively weaker, M-class flare, while the others had their origins in large active regions and were associated with strong X-class flares. An attempt has been made to implement a logistic regression model for the prediction of the occurrence of intense/super-intense geomagnetic storms. The model parameters (regression coefficients) were estimated from a training data-set extracted from a data-set of 64 geo-effective CMEs observed during 1996–2002. The results indicate that logistic regression models can be effectively used for predicting the occurrence of major geomagnetic storms from a set of solar and interplanetary factors. The model validation shows that 100% of the intense storms (-200 nT < DST < -100 nT) and only 50% of the super-intense (DST < -200 nT) storms could be correctly predicted.

  17. Climate change and extreme events in weather

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshKumar, M.R.

    monsoon and b) tropical cyclones. Basically the climate of India is domi- nated by the south west monsoon season which accounts for about 75% of the annual rainfall. The extreme weather events occur over India are: Floods, Droughts, Tropical Cyclones..., Heat Waves and Cold Waves, Storms Surges, Hail Storms, Thunderstorms, Dust Storms. Floods, droughts and tropical cyclones have specific significance a far as India is concerned. Floods and droughts are the two sides of the weather phenomena...

  18. Predicting and mitigating impacts of extreme space weather (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, D. N.

    2010-12-01

    Vulnerability of society to extreme space weather is an issue of increasing worldwide concern. For example, electric power networks connecting widely separated geographic areas may incur devastating damage induced by geomagnetic storms. Also, the miniaturization of electronic components in spacecraft systems makes them potentially much more susceptible to damage during space weather disturbances. The conclusion of a recent National Academy of Sciences report was that severe space weather events can cause tens of millions to many billions of dollars of damage to space and ground-based assets during major solar storms. The most extreme events could cause months-long power outages and could cost >1$ trillion. In this presentation, we discuss broad socioeconomic impacts of space weather and also discuss the immense potential benefits of improved space weather forecasts. Such forecasts take advantage of our increased understanding of the Earth’s space environmental conditions and the causative solar drivers. We consider scenarios of how forecasts could be used most effectively by policy makers and management officials.

  19. Terrestrial atmospheric responses on Svalbard to the 20 March 2015 Arctic total solar eclipse under extreme conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasachoff, J M; Peñaloza-Murillo, M A; Carter, A L; Roman, M T

    2016-09-28

    This article reports on the near-surface atmospheric response at the High Arctic site of Svalbard, latitude 78° N, as a result of abrupt changes in solar insolation during the 20 March 2015 equinox total solar eclipse and notifies the atmospheric science community of the availability of a rare dataset. Svalbard was central in the path of totality, and had completely clear skies. Measurements of shaded air temperature and atmospheric pressure show only weak, if any, responses to the reduced insolation. A minimum in the air temperature at 1.5 m above the ground occurred starting 2 min following the end of totality, though this drop was only slightly beyond the observed variability for the midday period. Eclipse-produced variations in surface pressure, if present, were less than 0.3 hPa.This article is part of the themed issue 'Atmospheric effects of solar eclipses stimulated by the 2015 UK eclipse'.

  20. Simulation of the 23 July 2012 Extreme Space Weather Event: What if This Extremely Rare CME Was Earth Directed?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngwira, Chigomezyo M.; Pulkkinen, Antti; Mays, M. Leila; Kuznetsova, Maria M.; Galvin, A. B.; Simunac, Kristin; Baker, Daniel N.; Li, Xinlin; Zheng, Yihua; Glocer, Alex

    2013-01-01

    Extreme space weather events are known to cause adverse impacts on critical modern day technological infrastructure such as high-voltage electric power transmission grids. On 23 July 2012, NASA's Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory-Ahead (STEREO-A) spacecraft observed in situ an extremely fast coronal mass ejection (CME) that traveled 0.96 astronomical units (approx. 1 AU) in about 19 h. Here we use the SpaceWeather Modeling Framework (SWMF) to perform a simulation of this rare CME.We consider STEREO-A in situ observations to represent the upstream L1 solar wind boundary conditions. The goal of this study is to examine what would have happened if this Rare-type CME was Earth-bound. Global SWMF-generated ground geomagnetic field perturbations are used to compute the simulated induced geoelectric field at specific ground-based active INTERMAGNET magnetometer sites. Simulation results show that while modeled global SYM-H index, a high-resolution equivalent of the Dst index, was comparable to previously observed severe geomagnetic storms such as the Halloween 2003 storm, the 23 July CME would have produced some of the largest geomagnetically induced electric fields, making it very geoeffective. These results have important practical applications for risk management of electrical power grids.

  1. VARIABLE AND EXTREME IRRADIATION CONDITIONS IN THE EARLY SOLAR SYSTEM INFERRED FROM THE INITIAL ABUNDANCE OF {sup 10}Be IN ISHEYEVO CAIs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gounelle, Matthieu [Laboratoire de Mineralogie et de Cosmochimie du Museum, CNRS and Museum National d' Histoire Naturelle, UMR 7202, CP52, 57 rue Cuvier, F-75005 Paris (France); Chaussidon, Marc; Rollion-Bard, Claire, E-mail: gounelle@mnhn.fr [Centre de Recherches Petrographiques et Geochimiques, CRPG-CNRS, BP 20, F-54501 Vandoeuvre-les-Nancy Cedex (France)

    2013-02-01

    A search for short-lived {sup 10}Be in 21 calcium-aluminum-rich inclusions (CAIs) from Isheyevo, a rare CB/CH chondrite, showed that only 5 CAIs had {sup 10}B/{sup 11}B ratios higher than chondritic correlating with the elemental ratio {sup 9}Be/{sup 11}B, suggestive of in situ decay of this key short-lived radionuclide. The initial ({sup 10}Be/{sup 9}Be){sub 0} ratios vary between {approx}10{sup -3} and {approx}10{sup -2} for CAI 411. The initial ratio of CAI 411 is one order of magnitude higher than the highest ratio found in CV3 CAIs, suggesting that the more likely origin of CAI 411 {sup 10}Be is early solar system irradiation. The low ({sup 26}Al/{sup 27}Al){sub 0} [{<=} 8.9 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -7}] with which CAI 411 formed indicates that it was exposed to gradual flares with a proton fluence of a few 10{sup 19} protons cm{sup -2}, during the earliest phases of the solar system, possibly the infrared class 0. The irradiation conditions for other CAIs are less well constrained, with calculated fluences ranging between a few 10{sup 19} and 10{sup 20} protons cm{sup -2}. The variable and extreme value of the initial {sup 10}Be/{sup 9}Be ratios in carbonaceous chondrite CAIs is the reflection of the variable and extreme magnetic activity in young stars observed in the X-ray domain.

  2. Hazards of geomagnetic storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herzog, D.C.

    1992-01-01

    Geomagnetic storms are large and sometimes rapid fluctuations in the Earth's magnetic field that are related to disturbances on the Sun's surface. Although it is not widely recognized, these transient magnetic disturbances can be a significant hazard to people and property. Many of us know that the intensity of the auroral lights increases during magnetic storms, but few people realize that these storms can also cause massive power outages, interrupt radio communications and satellite operations, increase corrosion in oil and gas pipelines, and lead to spuriously high rejection rates in the manufacture of sensitive electronic equipment. 

  3. Enhanced horizontal extreme-echo speed occurrence leading to polar mesospheric summer echoes (PMSE) increase at solar-wind pressure enhancement during high-speed solar wind stream events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Y.; Kirkwood, S.; Kwak, Y.; Kim, K.; Shepherd, G. G.

    2013-12-01

    We report on horizontal extreme echo speeds (HEES, ≥ 300 ms^{-1}) observed in long-periodic polar mesospheric summer echoes (PMSE) correlated with solar-wind speed in high speed solar wind streams (HSS) events. The observations were made from VHF 52 MHz radar measurements at Esrange (67.8°N, 20.4°E) between June 1-August 8 in 2006 and 2008. The periodicities of PMSE counts and the volume reflectivity primarily occur at 7, 9 and 13.5 days possibly by the effects of HSS, while the periodicities at 4-6 days are competitively coherent between planetary waves appearing in temperature and solar-wind speed during HSS events. The peaks of both HEES occurrence rate relative to PMSE and turbulence dominantly occur at solar-wind pressure enhancement with minor peaks continued under the passage of HSS over the magnetopause, followed by PMSE peaks in 1-3 days later. This study gives the results that the precipitating high-energetic particles (> 30 keV) during HSS likely induce D-region ionization involved with the consecutive processes of HEES, turbulence and PMSE. The turbulence evolved from the HEES can be explained with the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability, which was observed in PMSE by Röttger et al. [11th International Workshop on technical and scientific aspects of MST Radar, 2006] and firstly simulated for PMSE generation by Hill et al. [Earth Planets Space, 1999]. The HEES is understood as the speed of fast moving ions, accelerated by strong electric field as Lee & Shepherd [JGR, 2010] suggested with the supersonic velocities persisting in polar mesospheric clouds (PMC) region observed at enhanced O(^1S) emission rate ( 10 kR) by WINDII/UARS satellite.

  4. A comparison of the ground magnetic responses during the 2013 and 2015 St. Patrick's Day geomagnetic storms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xu, Z.; Hartinger, M. D.; Clauer, Robert C.

    2017-01-01

    2015 geomagnetic storms driven by coronal mass ejections (CME) provide one such opportunity. The two events occur during the same solar illumination conditions; in particular, both occur near equinox on the same day of the year leading to similar ionospheric conductivity profiles. Moreover, both CMEs...... the 2015 storm; these asymmetries are not present in the 2013 storm....

  5. Extreme 54Cr-rich nano-oxides in the CI chondrite Orgueil -Implication for a late supernova injection into the Solar System

    CERN Document Server

    Qin, Liping; Alexander, Conel M O'D; Wang, Jianhua; Stadermann, Frank J; Carlson, Richard W; 10.1016/j.gca.2010.10.017

    2011-01-01

    Systematic variations in 54Cr/52Cr ratios between meteorite classes (Qin et al., 2010a; Trinquier et al., 2007) point to large scale spatial and/or temporal isotopic heterogeneity in the solar protoplanetary disk. Two explanations for these variations have been proposed, with important implications for the formation of the Solar System: heterogeneous seeding of the disk with dust from a supernova, or energetic-particle irradiation of dust in the disk. The key to differentiating between them is identification of the carrier(s) of the 54Cr anomalies. Here we report the results of our recent NanoSIMS imaging search for the 54Cr-rich carrier in the acid-resistant residue of the CI chondrite Orgueil. A total of 10 regions with extreme 54Cr-excesses ({\\delta}54Cr values up to 1500 %) were found. Comparison between SEM, Auger and NanoSIMS analyses showed that these 54Cr-rich regions are associated with one or more sub-micron (typically less than 200 nm) Cr oxide grains, most likely spinels. Because the size of the N...

  6. 3-D solar cells by electrochemical-deposited Se layer as extremely-thin absorber and hole conducting layer on nanocrystalline TiO2 electrode

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Duy-Cuong; Tanaka, Souichirou; Nishino, Hitoshi; Manabe, Kyohei; Ito, Seigo

    2013-01-01

    A three-dimensional selenium solar cell with the structure of Au/Se/porous TiO2/compact TiO2/fluorine-doped tin oxide-coated glass plates was fabricated by an electrochemical deposition method of selenium, which can work for the extremely thin light absorber and the hole-conducting layer. The effect of experimental conditions, such as HCl and H2SeO3 in an electrochemical solution and TiO2 particle size of porous layers, was optimized. This kind of solar cell did not use any buffer layer between an n-type electrode (porous TiO2) and a p-type absorber layer (selenium). The crystallinity of the selenium after annealing at 200°C for 3 min in the air was significantly improved. The cells with a selenium layer deposited at concentrations of HCl = 11.5 mM and H2SeO3 = 20 mM showed the best performance, resulting in 1- to 2-nm thickness of the Se layer, short-circuit photocurrent density of 8.7 mA/cm2, open-circuit voltage of 0.65 V, fill factor of 0.53, and conversion efficiency of 3.0%.

  7. The Extreme Ultraviolet and X-Ray Sun in Time: High-Energy Evolutionary Tracks of a Solar-Like Star

    CERN Document Server

    Tu, Lin; Güdel, Manuel; Lammer, Helmut

    2015-01-01

    Aims. We aim to describe the pre-main sequence and main-sequence evolution of X-ray and extreme-ultaviolet radiation of a solar mass star based on its rotational evolution starting with a realistic range of initial rotation rates. Methods. We derive evolutionary tracks of X-ray radiation based on a rotational evolution model for solar mass stars and the rotation-activity relation. We compare these tracks to X-ray luminosity distributions of stars in clusters with different ages. Results. We find agreement between the evolutionary tracks derived from rotation and the X-ray luminosity distributions from observations. Depending on the initial rotation rate, a star might remain at the X-ray saturation level for very different time periods, approximately from 10 Myr to 300 Myr for slow and fast rotators, respectively. Conclusions. Rotational evolution with a spread of initial conditions leads to a particularly wide distribution of possible X-ray luminosities in the age range of 20 to 500 Myrs, before rotational co...

  8. The extreme ultraviolet and X-ray Sun in Time: High-energy evolutionary tracks of a solar-like star

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tu, Lin; Johnstone, Colin P.; Güdel, Manuel; Lammer, Helmut

    2015-05-01

    Aims: We aim to describe the pre-main-sequence and main-sequence evolution of X-ray and extreme-ultaviolet radiation of a solar-mass star based on its rotational evolution starting with a realistic range of initial rotation rates. Methods: We derive evolutionary tracks of X-ray radiation based on a rotational evolution model for solar-mass stars and the rotation-activity relation. We compare these tracks to X-ray luminosity distributions of stars in clusters with different ages. Results: We find agreement between the evolutionary tracks derived from rotation and the X-ray luminosity distributions from observations. Depending on the initial rotation rate, a star might remain at the X-ray saturation level for very different time periods, from ≈10 Myr to ≈300 Myr for slow and fast rotators, respectively. Conclusions: Rotational evolution with a spread of initial conditions leads to a particularly wide distribution of possible X-ray luminosities in the age range of 20-500 Myr, before rotational convergence and therefore X-ray luminosity convergence sets in. This age range is crucial for the evolution of young planetary atmospheres and may thus lead to very different planetary evolution histories.

  9. USACE Extreme Sea levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-03-14

    report summarising the results of the research, together with a set of recommendations arising from the research. This report describes progress to...Southampton University at HR Wallingford and subsequent teleconference with Heidi Moritz and Kate White. The notes summarising the findings of the...suggestion was made that we may want to begin talking about extreme water levels separate from storms. Ivan mentioned an analysis of storminess which

  10. Storm Data Publication

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — 'Storm Data and Unusual Weather Phenomena' is a monthly publication containing a chronological listing, by state, of hurricanes, tornadoes, thunderstorms, hail,...

  11. Storm surge and river interaction in etuaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskell, J.

    2012-04-01

    In coastal areas, particularly in regions developed on estuaries, extreme river flow can combine with storm surges to present a combined hazard. This combined risk is likely to be more prominent in estuaries where fluvial fresh water input comes from catchments in hilly regions where the dependence of extreme river discharge and sea level elevation can be most statistically significant (Svensson and Jones, 2004). The risk associated with these combined coastal hazards could increase due to climate change if there were an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events. The global (IPCC, 2007) and local (Woodworth et al., 2009) rise in mean sea-level will increase the magnitude of extreme sea levels and surges will act on a higher coastal sea level and therefore increase the risk to coastal property and infrastructure. This may be associated with an increase in precipitation during extreme storm events which will have a large impact on river flooding. Therefore, the need for accurate operational forecasting of storm events will increase with the focus shifting to changes in the extreme 'tail end' of the distribution of storm events. Ideally an operational model that integrates storm surge, wave and fluvial forecasting with inundation and simulates their combined influence would be most effective for planning with respect to flood plain development, evacuation and flood defence. Current operational storm surge models are typically based on two-dimensional depth-averaged shallow water equations (Flather, 2000). Inundation models often use an approximation of the original shallow water equations which neglect the inertial terms (Prestininzi et al., 2011). These 2D flood plain inundation models are often coupled with a 1D model of the main channel of a river or estuary which permits the exchange of mass but assumes a limited exchange of momentum (Bates et al., 2005). A finite volume model (FVCOM) is used to investigate the combined influence of storm surge and river

  12. Extreme early solar system chemical fractionation recorded by alkali-rich clasts contained in ordinary chondrite breccias

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yokoyama, Tatsunori; Misawa, Keiji; Okano, Osamu; Shih, Chi-Yu; Nyquist, Laurence E.; Simon, Justin I.; Tappa, Michael J.; Yoneda, Shigekazu

    2017-01-01

    New K-Ca and Rb-Sr isotopic analyses have been performed on alkali-rich igneous rock fragments in the Yamato (Y)-74442 and Bhola LL-chondritic breccias to better understand the extent and timing of alkali enrichments in the early solar system. The Y-74442 fragments yield a K-Ca age of 4.41 ± 0.28 Ga for λ(40K) = 0.5543 Ga-1 with an initial 40Ca/44Ca ratio of 47.1618 ± 0.0032. Studying the same fragments with the Rb-Sr isotope system yields an age of 4.420 ± 0.031 Ga for λ(87Rb) = 0.01402 Ga-1 with an initial ratio of 87Sr/86Sr = 0.7203 ± 0.0044. An igneous rock fragment contained in Bhola shows a similar alkali fractionation pattern to those of Y-74442 fragments but does not plot on the K-Ca or Rb-Sr isochron of the Y-74442 fragments. Calcium isotopic compositions of whole-rock samples of angrite and chondrites are primordial, indistinguishable from mantle-derived terrestrial rocks, and here considered to represent the initial composition of bulk silicate Earth. The initial ε40Ca value determined for the source of the alkali clasts in Y-74442 that is ∼0.5 ε-units higher than the solar system value implies an early alkali enrichment. Multi-isotopic studies on these alkali-rich fragments reveal that the source material of Y-74442 fragments had elemental ratios of K/Ca = 0.43 ± 0.18, Rb/Sr = 3.45 ± 0.66 and K/Rb ∼ 170, that may have formed from mixtures of an alkali-rich component (possibly an alkali-enriched gaseous reservoir produced by fractionation of early nebular condensates) and chondritic components that were flash-heated during an impact event on the LL-chondrite parent body ∼4.42 Ga ago. Further enrichments of potassium and rubidium relative to calcium and strontium as well as a mutual alkali-fractionation (K/Rb ∼ 50 and heavier alkali-enrichment) would have likely occurred during subsequent cooling and differentiation of this melt. Alkali fragments in Bhola might have undergone similar solid-vapor fractionation processes to those of Y

  13. Assessment of Modeling Capability for Reproducing Storm Impacts on TEC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shim, J. S.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Rastaetter, L.; Bilitza, D.; Codrescu, M.; Coster, A. J.; Emery, B. A.; Foerster, M.; Foster, B.; Fuller-Rowell, T. J.; Huba, J. D.; Goncharenko, L. P.; Mannucci, A. J.; Namgaladze, A. A.; Pi, X.; Prokhorov, B. E.; Ridley, A. J.; Scherliess, L.; Schunk, R. W.; Sojka, J. J.; Zhu, L.

    2014-12-01

    During geomagnetic storm, the energy transfer from solar wind to magnetosphere-ionosphere system adversely affects the communication and navigation systems. Quantifying storm impacts on TEC (Total Electron Content) and assessment of modeling capability of reproducing storm impacts on TEC are of importance to specifying and forecasting space weather. In order to quantify storm impacts on TEC, we considered several parameters: TEC changes compared to quiet time (the day before storm), TEC difference between 24-hour intervals, and maximum increase/decrease during the storm. We investigated the spatial and temporal variations of the parameters during the 2006 AGU storm event (14-15 Dec. 2006) using ground-based GPS TEC measurements in the selected 5 degree eight longitude sectors. The latitudinal variations were also studied in two longitude sectors among the eight sectors where data coverage is relatively better. We obtained modeled TEC from various ionosphere/thermosphere (IT) models. The parameters from the models were compared with each other and with the observed values. We quantified performance of the models in reproducing the TEC variations during the storm using skill scores. This study has been supported by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) at the Goddard Space Flight Center. Model outputs and observational data used for the study will be permanently posted at the CCMC website (http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) for the space science communities to use.

  14. Winter storm intensity, hazards, and property losses in the New York tristate area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimkus, Cari E; Ting, Mingfang; Booth, James F; Adamo, Susana B; Madajewicz, Malgosia; Kushnir, Yochanan; Rieder, Harald E

    2017-07-01

    Winter storms pose numerous hazards to the Northeast United States, including rain, snow, strong wind, and flooding. These hazards can cause millions of dollars in damages from one storm alone. This study investigates meteorological intensity and impacts of winter storms from 2001 to 2014 on coastal counties in Connecticut, New Jersey, and New York and underscores the consequences of winter storms. The study selected 70 winter storms on the basis of station observations of surface wind strength, heavy precipitation, high storm tide, and snow extremes. Storm rankings differed between measures, suggesting that intensity is not easily defined with a single metric. Several storms fell into two or more categories (multiple-category storms). Following storm selection, property damages were examined to determine which types lead to high losses. The analysis of hazards (or events) and associated damages using the Storm Events Database of the National Centers for Environmental Information indicates that multiple-category storms were responsible for a greater portion of the damage. Flooding was responsible for the highest losses, but no discernible connection exists between the number of storms that afflict a county and the damage it faces. These results imply that losses may rely more on the incidence of specific hazards, infrastructure types, and property values, which vary throughout the region. © 2017 The Authors. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences published by Wiley Periodicals Inc. on behalf of The New York Academy of Sciences.

  15. Solar abundances of rock-forming elements, extreme oxygen and hydrogen in a young polluted white dwarf

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farihi, J.; Koester, D.; Zuckerman, B.; Vican, L.; Gänsicke, B. T.; Smith, N.; Walth, G.; Breedt, E.

    2016-12-01

    The Teff = 20 800 K white dwarf WD 1536+520 is shown to have broadly solar abundances of the major rock-forming elements O, Mg, Al, Si, Ca, and Fe, together with a strong relative depletion in the volatile elements C and S. In addition to the highest metal abundances observed to date, including log (O/He) = -3.4, the helium-dominated atmosphere has an exceptional hydrogen abundance at log (H/He) = -1.7. Within the uncertainties, the metal-to-metal ratios are consistent with the accretion of an H2O-rich and rocky parent body, an interpretation supported by the anomalously high trace hydrogen. The mixed atmosphere yields unusually short diffusion time-scales for a helium atmosphere white dwarf, of no more than a few hundred years, and equivalent to those in a much cooler, hydrogen-rich star. The overall heavy element abundances of the disrupted parent body deviate modestly from a bulk Earth pattern, and suggest the deposition of some core-like material. The total inferred accretion rate is 4.2 × 109 g s-1, and at least four times higher than for any white dwarf with a comparable diffusion time-scale. Notably, when accretion is exhausted in this system, both metals and hydrogen will become undetectable within roughly 300 Myr, thus supporting a scenario where the trace hydrogen is related to the ongoing accretion of planetary debris.

  16. Ultra-thin metamaterial absorber with extremely bandwidth for solar cell and sensing applications in visible region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Jingyao; Xiao, Zhongyin; Xu, Kaikai

    2016-10-01

    In this paper, we proposed a broadband and ultra-thin metamaterial absorber in the visible region. The absorber is composed of three layers, and the most remarkable difference is that the split ring resonators (SRR) made of metal stannum are encrusted in the indium antimonide (InSb) plane on the top layer. Numerical results reveal that a broadband absorption spectrum above 90% can be realized from 353.9 THz to 613.2 THz due to the coupling effect between the material of stannum and InSb. The metamaterial absorber is ultra-thin, having the total thickness of 56 nm, i.e. less than λ/10 with respect to the center frequency of the absorption band more than 90%. In addition, the impedance matching theory, surface current distributions, E-field and H-field are investigated to explain the physical mechanism of the absorption. The sensing applications are discussed and the simulated results show that the proposed absorber operates well with a good efficiency. Moreover, the visible absorber has potential applications in the aspects of solar energy harvest, integrated photodetectors and so on.

  17. THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EXTREME ULTRAVIOLET NON-THERMAL LINE BROADENING AND HIGH-ENERGY PARTICLES DURING SOLAR FLARES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kawate, T. [Kwasan and Hida Observatory, Kyoto University, Kurabashira, Kamitakaracho, Takayama, Gifu 506-1314 (Japan); Imada, S. [National Astronomical Observatory of Japan, 2-21-1 Osawa, Mitaka, Tokyo 181-8588 (Japan)

    2013-10-01

    We have studied the relationship between the location of EUV non-thermal broadening and high-energy particles during large flares using the EUV Imaging Spectrometer on board Hinode, the Nobeyama Radio Polarimeter, the Nobeyama Radioheliograph, and the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly on board the Solar Dynamic Observatory. We have analyzed five large flare events that contain thermal-rich, intermediate, and thermal-poor flares classified by the definition discussed in the paper. We found that, in the case of thermal-rich flares, the non-thermal broadening of Fe XXIV occurred at the top of the flaring loop at the beginning of the flares. The source of 17 GHz microwaves is located at the footpoint of the flare loop. On the other hand, in the case of intermediate/thermal-poor flares, the non-thermal broadening of Fe XXIV occurred at the footpoint of the flare loop at the beginning of the flares. The source of 17 GHz microwaves is located at the top of the flaring loop. We discussed the difference between thermal-rich and intermediate/thermal-poor flares based on the spatial information of non-thermal broadening, which may provide clues that the presence of turbulence plays an important role in the pitch angle scattering of high-energy electrons.

  18. Interaction of Extreme Halophilic Archaea With the Evaporites of the Solar Salterns Guerrero Negro Baja California, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamez, P.; Lopez-Cortés, A.

    2008-12-01

    Hypersaline environments have been significant reservoirs for the long-term evolution of specifically adapted microorganisms. Characterized to have higher salt concentrations (up to 35 g/L), they are worldwide distributed and have a commercial significance. Exportadora de Sal, Guerrero Negro, Mexico has a multipond salterns system designed to harvest common salt (NaCl) from sea water. To achieve this purpose, sea water is pumped through a set of shallow ponds where water evaporates and salts concentrate. Sequential precipitation of CaCO3, CaSO4 2H2O and NaCl occurs in a mineral formations call it evaporites. In the interior of those gypsum-encrusted and halite-encrusted minerals, communities of extremely salt-loving archaea prosper. Previous studies have showed the influence of Haloarchaeal cells in the formation of larger fluid inclusions than crystals formed in sterile salt solutions. S-layer envelopes and cells of Haloarcula strain SP8807 contributed to the nucleation of new crystals of NaCl. Given the significance of the scope in phylogenetic archaeal diversity research, this study had a polyphasic approach. SEM micrographs from a 21- 31% (w/v) gradient salt multipond system evaporites, gave an insight profile of the extreme halophilic archaeal communities thriving in the surface of the gypsum and halite evaporites. Halite crystals were form after 21 days of incubation in solid medium with archaeal cells. Both culture and non-culture dependent methods, Nested-PCR-DGGE analysis and sequencing of 16S rDNA amplified fragment genes from environmental samples and isolated strains were used for this purpose. We isolate three strains from Pond 9 (21.07% total salt concentration) and one strain from Cristallizer 20 (25.15% total salt concentration). 16S rDNA signaling gave 99% of similarity with Halogeometricum borinquense, sequence AF002984, two other strains were 99% of similarity with Halobacterium salinarum, sequence AJ496185 these strains shown different colony

  19. Taking Extreme Space Weather to the Milky Way

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesnell, W. Dean

    2014-06-01

    Extreme Space Weather events are large solar flares or geomagnetic storms, which can cause economic damage that cost billions of dollars to recover from. We have few examples of such events; only the Carrington Event (the solar superstorm) has superlatives in three categories: size of solar flare, drop in Dst, and amplitude of aa. Kepler observations show that stars similar to the Sun can have flares releasing thousands of times more energy than an X-class flare. These flares would strongly affect the atmosphere surrounding a planet orbiting such a star. Particle and magnetic field outflows from these stars could also be present. We are investigating the level of solar activity that is necessary to strongly affect the atmosphere of terrestrial planets. We assume that a habitable planet requires an atmosphere with a temperature and composition that is stable in time. Can we then extrapolate results from our solar system to determine a space of stellar parameters in which habitable planets can exist?

  20. The Subaru Coronagraphic Extreme Adaptive Optics system: enabling high-contrast imaging on solar-system scales

    CERN Document Server

    Jovanovic, N; Guyon, O; Clergeon, C; Singh, G; Kudo, T; Garrel, V; Newman, K; Doughty, D; Lozi, J; Males, J; Minowa, Y; Hayano, Y; Takato, N; Morino, J; Kuhn, J; Serabyn, E; Norris, B; Tuthill, P; Schworer, G; Stewart, P; Close, L; Huby, E; Perrin, G; Lacour, S; Gauchet, L; Vievard, S; Murakami, N; Oshiyama, F; Baba, N; Matsuo, T; Nishikawa, J; Tamura, M; Lai, O; Marchis, F; Duchene, G; Kotani, T; Woillez, J

    2015-01-01

    The Subaru Coronagraphic Extreme Adaptive Optics (SCExAO) instrument is a multipurpose high-contrast imaging platform designed for the discovery and detailed characterization of exoplanetary systems and serves as a testbed for high-contrast imaging technologies for ELTs. It is a multi-band instrument which makes use of light from 600 to 2500nm allowing for coronagraphic direct exoplanet imaging of the inner 3 lambda/D from the stellar host. Wavefront sensing and control are key to the operation of SCExAO. A partial correction of low-order modes is provided by Subaru's facility adaptive optics system with the final correction, including high-order modes, implemented downstream by a combination of a visible pyramid wavefront sensor and a 2000-element deformable mirror. The well corrected NIR (y-K bands) wavefronts can then be injected into any of the available coronagraphs, including but not limited to the phase induced amplitude apodization and the vector vortex coronagraphs, both of which offer an inner worki...

  1. Storm track processes and the opposing influences of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, T. A.; Baldwin, M.; Barnes, E. A.; Caballero, R.; Garfinkel, C. I.; Hwang, Y.-T.; Li, C.; O'Gorman, P. A.; Rivière, G.; Simpson, I. R.; Voigt, A.

    2016-09-01

    Extratropical cyclones are storm systems that are observed to travel preferentially within confined regions known as storm tracks. They contribute to precipitation, wind and temperature extremes in mid-latitudes. Cyclones tend to form where surface temperature gradients are large, and the jet stream influences their speed and direction of travel. Storm tracks shape the global climate through transport of energy and momentum. The intensity and location of storm tracks varies seasonally, and in response to other natural variations, such as changes in tropical sea surface temperature. A hierarchy of numerical models of the atmosphere-ocean system -- from highly idealized to comprehensive -- has been used to study and predict responses of storm tracks to anthropogenic climate change. The future position and intensity of storm tracks depend on processes that alter temperature gradients. However, different processes can have opposing influences on temperature gradients, which leads to a tug of war on storm track responses and makes future projections more difficult. For example, as climate warms, surface shortwave cloud radiative changes increase the Equator-to-pole temperature gradient, but at the same time, longwave cloud radiative changes reduce this gradient. Future progress depends on understanding and accurately quantifying the relative influence of such processes on the storm tracks.

  2. Regional differences of the ionospheric response to the July 2012 geomagnetic storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuai, Jiawei; Liu, Libo; Lei, Jiuhou; Liu, Jing; Zhao, Biqiang; Chen, Yiding; Le, Huijun; Wang, Yungang; Hu, Lianhuan

    2017-04-01

    The July 2012 geomagnetic storm is an extreme space weather event in solar cycle 24, which is characterized by a southward interplanetary geomagnetic field lasting for about 30 h below -10 nT. In this work, multiple instrumental observations, including electron density from ionosondes, total electron content (TEC) from Global Positioning System, Jason-2, and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, and the topside ion concentration observed by the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program spacecraft are used to comprehensively present the regional differences of the ionospheric response to this event. In the Asian-Australian sector, an intensive negative storm is detected near longitude 120°E on 16 July, and in the topside ionosphere the negative phase is mainly existed in the equatorial region. The topside and bottomside TEC contribute equally to the depletion in TEC, and the disturbed electric fields make a reasonable contribution. On 15 July, the positive storm effects are stronger in the Eastside than in the Westside. The topside TEC make a major contribution to the enhancement in TEC for the positive phases, showing the important role of the equatorward neutral winds. For the American sector, the equatorial ionization anomaly intensification is stronger in the Westside than in the Eastside and shows the strongest feature in the longitude 110°W. The combined effects of the disturbed electric fields, composition disturbances, and neutral winds cause the complex storm time features. Both the topside ion concentrations and TEC reveal the remarkable hemispheric asymmetry, which is mainly resulted from the asymmetry in neutral winds and composition disturbances.

  3. MORPHOLOGY CATEGORY OF GEOMAGNETIC STORMS AND CHARACTERISTICS OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC CLOUDS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    章公亮

    1991-01-01

    Six typical geomagnetic storms are analyzed from the aspect of varieties of morphologycategories of magnetic storms with sudden commencement caused by interplanetary magneticclouds. The main conclusions obtained are drawn. The high-density structure in front ofmagnetic cloud is an important factor in determining the property of the initial phase ofgeomagnetic storm. Under similar conditions for the magnetic field of magnetic cloud, thevelocities of both the background solar wind and the magnetic cloud affect the developmentand intensity of magnetic storm. The onset and recovery of strong main phase are control-led by the orientation of the field vector inclination with respect to the ecliptic plane. Oneof the main features of the storm generated from a positive magnetic cloud is the long-delayed main phase. The solar wind streams behind the magnetic cloud keep affecting therecovery of main phase of magnetic storm.

  4. Polar Cap Potential Saturation during the Bastille Day Storm using Next Generation Magnetosphere-Ionosphere Coupling Global MHD Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubota, Y.; Nagatsuma, T.; Den, M.; Tanaka, T.; Fujita, S.

    2015-12-01

    We are developing a real-time numerical simulator for the solar-wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling system using next generation magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling global MHD simulation called REPPU (REProduce Plasma Universe) code. The feature of simulation has an advanced robustness to strong solar wind case because a triangular grid is used, which is able to calculate in the uniform accuracy over the whole region. Therefore we can simulate extreme event such as the Bastille day storm. The resolution is 7682 grids in the horizontal direction and 240 grids in the radial direction. The inner boundary of the simulation box is set at 2.6 Re. We investigate the reproduction of the magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling simulation in strong solar wind case. Therefore we compared the simulation results with the observation of the Bastille day storm event (2000/7/15), in which the solar wind velocity is above 1000 km/s and the value of Bz reached -60 nT. Especially, we focus the cross polar cap potential (CPCP) saturation and time variation because the CPCP represents the value of magnetospheric - ionospheric convection strength via region 1 current. The CPCP depends on solar wind electric field, dynamic pressure and ionospheric conductivity [Siscoe et al., 2002; Kivelson et al., 2008]. The model of Kivelson et al. [2008] shows a good reproduction to the CPCP variation. However their study assumes that the ionospheric conductivity is constant. The conductivity in our simulation of the Bastille day event is varied by the auroral activity. In this lecture, we discuss the effect of both the auroral conductance and solar EUV-driven conductance to CPCP saturation.

  5. How extreme are extremes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucchi, Marco; Petitta, Marcello; Calmanti, Sandro

    2016-04-01

    High temperatures have an impact on the energy balance of any living organism and on the operational capabilities of critical infrastructures. Heat-wave indicators have been mainly developed with the aim of capturing the potential impacts on specific sectors (agriculture, health, wildfires, transport, power generation and distribution). However, the ability to capture the occurrence of extreme temperature events is an essential property of a multi-hazard extreme climate indicator. Aim of this study is to develop a standardized heat-wave indicator, that can be combined with other indices in order to describe multiple hazards in a single indicator. The proposed approach can be used in order to have a quantified indicator of the strenght of a certain extreme. As a matter of fact, extremes are usually distributed in exponential or exponential-exponential functions and it is difficult to quickly asses how strong was an extreme events considering only its magnitude. The proposed approach simplify the quantitative and qualitative communication of extreme magnitude

  6. On the possible relations between solar activities and global seismicity in the solar cycle 20 to 23

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herdiwijaya, Dhani; Arif, Johan; Nurzaman, Muhamad Zamzam; Astuti, Isna Kusuma Dewi

    2015-09-01

    Solar activities consist of high energetic particle streams, electromagnetic radiation, magnetic and orbital gravitational forces. The well-know solar activity main indicator is the existence of sunspot which has mean variation in 11 years, named by solar cycle, allow for the above fluctuations. Solar activities are also related to the space weather affecting all planetary atmospheric variability, moreover to the Earth's climate variability. Large extreme space and geophysical events (high magnitude earthquakes, explosive volcanic eruptions, magnetic storms, etc.) are hazards for humankind, infrastructure, economies, technology and the activities of civilization. With a growing world population, and with modern reliance on delicate technological systems, human society is becoming increasingly vulnerable to natural hazardous events. The big question arises to the relation between solar forcing energy to the Earth's global seismic activities. Estimates are needed for the long term occurrence-rate probabilities of these extreme natural hazardous events. We studied connectivity from yearly seismic activities that refer to and sunspot number within the solar cycle 20 to 23 of year 1960 to 2013 (53 years). We found clear evidences that in general high magnitude earthquake events and their depth were related to the low solar activity.

  7. On the possible relations between solar activities and global seismicity in the solar cycle 20 to 23

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herdiwijaya, Dhani, E-mail: dhani@as.itb.ac.id [Astronomy Research Division and Bosscha Observatory, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Bandung Institute of Technology, Ganesha 10, Bandung, Indonesia 40132 (Indonesia); Arif, Johan [Geology Research Division, Faculty of Earth Sciences and Technology, Bandung Institute of Technology, Ganesha 10, Bandung, Indonesia 40132 (Indonesia); Nurzaman, Muhamad Zamzam; Astuti, Isna Kusuma Dewi [Astronomy Study Program, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Bandung Institute of Technology, Ganesha 10, Bandung, Indonesia 40132 (Indonesia)

    2015-09-30

    Solar activities consist of high energetic particle streams, electromagnetic radiation, magnetic and orbital gravitational forces. The well-know solar activity main indicator is the existence of sunspot which has mean variation in 11 years, named by solar cycle, allow for the above fluctuations. Solar activities are also related to the space weather affecting all planetary atmospheric variability, moreover to the Earth’s climate variability. Large extreme space and geophysical events (high magnitude earthquakes, explosive volcanic eruptions, magnetic storms, etc.) are hazards for humankind, infrastructure, economies, technology and the activities of civilization. With a growing world population, and with modern reliance on delicate technological systems, human society is becoming increasingly vulnerable to natural hazardous events. The big question arises to the relation between solar forcing energy to the Earth’s global seismic activities. Estimates are needed for the long term occurrence-rate probabilities of these extreme natural hazardous events. We studied connectivity from yearly seismic activities that refer to and sunspot number within the solar cycle 20 to 23 of year 1960 to 2013 (53 years). We found clear evidences that in general high magnitude earthquake events and their depth were related to the low solar activity.

  8. Storms and Moons

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-01-01

    The New Horizons Long Range Reconnaissance Imager (LORRI) took this 2-millisecond exposure of Jupiter at 04:41:04 UTC on January 24, 2007. The spacecraft was 57 million kilometers (35.3 million miles) from Jupiter, closing in on the giant planet at 41,500 miles (66,790 kilometers) per hour. At right are the moons Io (bottom) and Ganymede; Ganymede's shadow creeps toward the top of Jupiter's northern hemisphere. Two of Jupiter's largest storms are visible; the Great Red Spot on the western (left) limb of the planet, trailing the Little Red Spot on the eastern limb, at slightly lower latitude. The Great Red Spot is a 300-year old storm more than twice the size of Earth. The Little Red Spot, which formed over the past decade from the merging of three smaller storms, is about half the size of its older and 'greater' counterpart.

  9. Storm and cloud dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Cotton, William R

    1992-01-01

    This book focuses on the dynamics of clouds and of precipitating mesoscale meteorological systems. Clouds and precipitating mesoscale systems represent some of the most important and scientifically exciting weather systems in the world. These are the systems that produce torrential rains, severe winds including downburst and tornadoes, hail, thunder and lightning, and major snow storms. Forecasting such storms represents a major challenge since they are too small to be adequately resolved by conventional observing networks and numerical prediction models.Key Features* Key Highlight

  10. Tropical storm Flossie and the Ark Royal storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peteherych, S.; Cunningham, G. F.; Davies, A. F.; Muttitt, G.

    1986-01-01

    The development of the tropical storm Flossie north of Scotland on September 16-17, 1978 from the Ark Royal storm is described. Land, marine, upper air data, satellite imagery, Seasat scatterometer (SASS) wind data, and SMMR moisture data were utilized to analyze the storms' development. The factors which contributed to the formation of the Ark Royal storm are discussed. Isobaric surface charts, isotachs and streamlines of the SASS winds, and SMMR water vapor contours are provided.

  11. Effect of ultraviolet absorptivity and waterproofness of poly(3,4-ethylenedioxythiophene) with extremely weak acidity, high conductivity on enhanced stability of perovskite solar cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Wei; Wang, Kaixuan; Guo, Bin; Qiu, Xueqing; Hao, Yue; Chang, JingJing; Li, Yuan

    2017-08-01

    The poor long-term stability of perovskite solar cells (PSCs) tremendously hampers their future commercialization though their superior photovoltaic efficiencies. To enhance the device stability, a new poly(3,4-ethylenedioxythiophene):sulfonated acetone-formaldehyde (PEDOT:SAF) with higher PEDOT content (2:1) is developed considering the excellent dispersing capacity of SAF. PEDOT:SAF exhibits extremely lower acidity with pH value of 6 and higher conductivity of 3.12 S/cm comparing with the former reported sample with lower PEDOT content. Moreover, PEDOT:SAF film shows superior ultraviolet (UV) absorptivity originated from the fluorescence effect of SAF and unexceptionable film waterproofness on account of the high PEDOT content. As a result, the PSC incorporating PEDOT:SAF as the hole extraction layer (HEL) achieves higher power conversion efficiency (PCE) and highly enhanced device stability than the traditional PEDOT:PSS-based device. After 28 days of storage time, our device retains 83.2% from its original PCE, while almost half-degradation is experienced in the PEDOT:PSS controlled device. In addition, SAF is renewable with more simple and inexpensive preparation than that of PSS. Undoubtedly, this new PEDOT:SAF provides us a scaffold for designing stable PSC, and this platform is also shared in other photovoltaic technologies.

  12. Genomic Analysis of the Extremely Halophilic Archaeon Halobacterium noricense CBA1132 Isolated from Solar Salt That Is an Essential Material for Fermented Foods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Seul Ki; Kim, Joon Yong; Song, Hye Seon; Kwon, Min-Sung; Lee, Jieun; Oh, Young Jun; Nam, Young-Do; Seo, Myung-Ji; Lee, Dong-Gi; Choi, Jong-Soon; Yoon, Changmann; Sohn, Eunju; Rahman, Md Arif-Ur; Roh, Seong Woon; Choi, Hak-Jong

    2016-08-28

    The extremely halophilic archaeon Halobacterium noricense is a member of the genus Halobacterium. Strain CBA1132 (= KCCM 43183, JCM 31150) was isolated from solar salt. The genome of strain CBA1132 assembled with 4 contigs, including three rRNA genes, 44 tRNA genes, and 3,208 open reading frames. Strain CBA1132 had nine putative CRISPRs and the genome contained genes encoding metal resistance determinants: copper-translocating P-type ATPase (CtpA), arsenical pump-driving ATPase (ArsA), arsenate reductase (ArsC), and arsenical resistance operon repressor (ArsR). Strain CBA1132 was related to Halobacterium noricense, with 99.2% 16S rRNA gene sequence similarity. Based on the comparative genomic analysis, strain CBA1132 has distinctly evolved; moreover, essential genes related to nitrogen metabolism were only detected in the genome of strain CBA1132 among the reported genomes in the genus Halobacterium. This genome sequence of Halobacterium noricense CBA1132 may be of use in future molecular biological studies.

  13. ARkStorm@Tahoe: Science as a foundation for discussing, recognizing and mitigating storm-disaster vulnerabilities in mountain and downstream communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarthy, M.; Dettinger, M. D.; Kauneckis, D. L.; Cox, D. A.; Albano, C.; Welborn, T.

    2014-12-01

    Atmospheric rivers (ARs) have historically caused ~80% of the most extreme winter storms and largest floods in California and parts of northwestern Nevada. In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey developed the ARkStorm extreme-storm scenario to quantify risks from extreme winter storms and to allow stakeholders to explore and mitigate potential impacts. The scenario was constructed by concatenating two historical AR sequences and quantified by simulating them using a regional-weather model nested within global weather fields, resulting in a climatologically plausible 23-day storm sequence. The ARkStorm@Tahoe scenario was presented at six meetings with over 300 participants from local agencies, first-responders and local communities, each meeting having a different geographic or sectoral focus. These stakeholder meetings and an 18-question survey identified a wide range of social and ecological vulnerabilities to extreme winter storms, science and information needs to prepare and mitigate consequenses, and proactive measures to minimize impacts. Interruption of transportation, communications, and lack of power and backup fuel supplies were identified as the most likely and primary points of failure across multiple sectors and geographies, as these interruptions have cascading effects on natural and human environments by impeding emergency response efforts. Natural resource impacts of greatest concern include flooding, impacts to water quality, spread and establishment of invasive species, and interactions with other disturbance types (e.g., fire, landslides). Science needs include improved monitoring and models to facilitate better prediction and response, real-time and forecast inundation mapping to understand flood risks, and vulnerability assessments related to geomorphic hazards and water quality impacts. Results from this effort highlight several opportunities for increasing the resilience of communities and the environment to extreme storm events. Information

  14. Storms Across the Nation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HU YUE

    2010-01-01

    @@ Summer rainstorms have been sweeping through much of the country,causing immeasurable damage to affected provinces and people.By August 4,some 28 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions have been hit by storms,victimizing a population of 140 million,said the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters.

  15. Dave Storm esitleb singlit

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    2002-01-01

    7. märtsil klubis Spirit ja 8. märtsil klubis Terminal presenteerib tallinlane DJ Dave Storm oma uut singlit "Ride", millel teeb laulmisega kaasa ameeriklane Charlie C. Singelplaadi annab peadselt välja Inglise plaadifirma Refunkt

  16. Interview with Gert Storm

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Storm, Gerrit

    2013-01-01

    Gert Storm studied biology at the Utrecht University, The Netherlands, and obtained his PhD degree in 1987 at the Department of Pharmaceutics of the same university. He is now Professor of targeted drug delivery at the University of Utrecht, as well as Professor of targeted therapeutics at the MIRA

  17. Dave Storm esitleb singlit

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    2002-01-01

    7. märtsil klubis Spirit ja 8. märtsil klubis Terminal presenteerib tallinlane DJ Dave Storm oma uut singlit "Ride", millel teeb laulmisega kaasa ameeriklane Charlie C. Singelplaadi annab peadselt välja Inglise plaadifirma Refunkt

  18. Interview with Gert Storm

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Storm, Gert

    2013-01-01

    Gert Storm studied biology at the Utrecht University, The Netherlands, and obtained his PhD degree in 1987 at the Department of Pharmaceutics of the same university. He is now Professor of targeted drug delivery at the University of Utrecht, as well as Professor of targeted therapeutics at the MIRA

  19. Estimation of cold plasma outflow during geomagnetic storms

    CERN Document Server

    Haaland, S; André, M; Maes, L; Baddeley, L; Barakat, A; Chappell, R; Eccles, V; Johnsen, C; Lybekk, B; Li, K; Pedersen, A; Schunk, R; Welling, D

    2016-01-01

    Low-energy ions of ionospheric origin constitute a significant contributor to the magnetospheric plasma population. Measuring cold ions is difficult though. Observations have to be done at sufficiently high altitudes and typically in regions of space where spacecraft attain a positive charge due to solar illumination. Cold ions are therefore shielded from the satellite particle detectors. Furthermore, spacecraft can only cover key regions of ion outflow during segments of their orbit, so additional complications arise if continuous longtime observations, such as during a geomagnetic storm, are needed. In this paper we suggest a new approach, based on a combination of synoptic observations and a novel technique to estimate the flux and total outflow during the various phases of geomagnetic storms. Our results indicate large variations in both outflow rates and transport throughout the storm. Prior to the storm main phase, outflow rates are moderate, and the cold ions are mainly emanating from moderately sized ...

  20. Statistical Study of False Alarms of Geomagnetic Storms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leer, Kristoffer; Vennerstrøm, Susanne; Veronig, A.

    Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are known to cause geomagnetic storms on Earth. However, not all CMEs will trigger geomagnetic storms, even if they are heading towards the Earth. In this study, front side halo CMEs with speed larger than 500 km/s have been identified from the SOHO LASCO catalogue....... A subset of these halo CMEs did not cause a geomagnetic storm the following four days and have therefore been considered as false alarms. The properties of these events are investigated and discussed here. Their statistics are compared to the geo-effective CMEs. The ability to identify potential false...... alarms is considered as an important factor when forecasting geomagnetic storms. It would therefore be very helpful if there were a signature in the solar data that could indicate that a CME is a false alarm. The strength and position of associated flares have been considered as possible candidates...

  1. Statistical Study of False Alarms of Geomagnetic Storms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leer, Kristoffer; Vennerstrøm, Susanne; Veronig, A.;

    Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are known to cause geomagnetic storms on Earth. However, not all CMEs will trigger geomagnetic storms, even if they are heading towards the Earth. In this study, front side halo CMEs with speed larger than 500 km/s have been identified from the SOHO LASCO catalogue....... A subset of these halo CMEs did not cause a geomagnetic storm the following four days and have therefore been considered as false alarms. The properties of these events are investigated and discussed here. Their statistics are compared to the geo-effective CMEs. The ability to identify potential false...... alarms is considered as an important factor when forecasting geomagnetic storms. It would therefore be very helpful if there were a signature in the solar data that could indicate that a CME is a false alarm. The strength and position of associated flares have been considered as possible candidates...

  2. The XWS open access catalogue of extreme European windstorms from 1979–2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. F. Roberts

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The XWS (eXtreme WindStorms catalogue consists of storm tracks and model-generated maximum three-second wind-gust footprints for 50 of the most extreme winter windstorms to hit Europe over 1979–2012. The catalogue is intended to be a valuable resource for both academia and industries such as (reinsurance, for example allowing users to characterise extreme European storms, and validate climate and catastrophe models. Several storm severity indices were investigated to find which could best represent a list of known high loss (severe storms. The best performing index was Sft, which is a combination of storm area calculated from the storm footprint and maximum 925 hPa wind speed from the storm track. All the listed severe storms are included in the catalogue, and the remaining ones were selected using Sft. A comparison of the model footprint to station observations revealed that storms were generally well represented, although for some storms the highest gusts were underestimated due to the model not simulating strong enough pressure gradients. A new recalibration method was developed to estimate the true distribution of gusts at each grid point and correct for this underestimation. The recalibration model allows for storm-to-storm variation which is essential given that different storms have different degrees of model bias. The catalogue is available at http:///www.europeanwindstorms.org/.

  3. nuSTORM Pion Beamline Design Update

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, A. [Indiana U.; Bross, A. [Fermilab; Neuffer, D. [Fermilab; Lee, S. Y. [Indiana U.

    2013-09-01

    A facility producing neutrinos from muons that decay in a racetrack ring can provide extremely well understood neutrino beams for oscillation physics and the search for sterile neutrinos. The “neutrinos from STORed Muons” (nuSTORM) facility based on this idea has been introduced by Bross, Neuffer et al. The design of the nuSTORM facility and the particle tracking have been presented in the paper of Liu, et al. This paper demonstrates the recent optimization results of the pion beamline, with G4beamline simulations. The optimum choice of pion beam center momentum, a new algorithm on fitting bivariate Gaussian distribution to the pion phase space data at the downstream side of the horn, and the comparison of the beamline performance with the optics designed based on Graphite and Inconel targets are also described.

  4. Impacts of storm chronology on the morphological changes of the Formby beach and dune system, UK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Dissanayake

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Impacts of storm chronology within a storm cluster on beach/dune erosion are investigated by applying the state-of-the-art numerical model XBeach to the Sefton coast, northwest England. Six temporal storm clusters of different storm chronologies were formulated using three storms observed during the 2013/14 winter. The storm power values of these three events nearly halve from the first to second event and from the second to third event. Cross-shore profile evolution was simulated in response to the tide, surge and wave forcing during these storms. The model was first calibrated against the available post-storm survey profiles. Cumulative impacts of beach/dune erosion during each storm cluster were simulated by using the post-storm profile of an event as the pre-storm profile for each subsequent event. For the largest event the water levels caused noticeable retreat of the dune toe due to the high water elevation. For the other events the greatest evolution occurs over the bar formations (erosion and within the corresponding troughs (deposition of the upper beach profile. The sequence of events impacting the size of this ridge-runnel feature is important as it consequently changes the resilience of the system to the most extreme event that causes dune retreat. The highest erosion during each single storm event was always observed when that storm initialised the storm cluster. The most severe storm always resulted in the most erosion during each cluster, no matter when it occurred within the chronology, although the erosion volume due to this storm was reduced when it was not the primary event. The greatest cumulative cluster erosion occurred with increasing storm severity; however, the variability in cumulative cluster impact over a beach/dune cross-section due to storm chronology is minimal. Initial storm impact can act to enhance or reduce the system resilience to subsequent impact, but overall the cumulative impact is controlled by the

  5. Dust Storms in the United States are Associated with Increased Cardiovascular Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Background: Extreme weather events such as dust storms are predicted to become more frequent as the global climate warms through the 21st century. Studies of Asian, Saharan, Arabian, and Australian dust storms have found associations with cardiovascular and total non-accidental...

  6. Response of wave-dominated and mixed-energy barriers to storms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Masselink, G.; Heteren, S. van

    2014-01-01

    Wave-dominated and mixed-energy barriers are extremely dynamic landforms, responding to processes operating over a spectrum of time scales, ranging from daily-to-monthly fluctuations related to storm and post-storm conditions, to century-to-millennium-scale evolution driven by relative sea-level cha

  7. Linking two consecutive nonmerging magnetic clouds with their solar sources

    CERN Document Server

    Dasso, S; Schmieder, B; Cremades, H; Cid, C; Cerrato, Y; Saiz, E; Démoulin, P; Zhukov, A N; Rodriguez, L; Aran, A; Menvielle, M; Poedts, S; 10.1029/2008JA013102

    2012-01-01

    On 15 May 2005, a huge interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) was observed near Earth. It triggered one of the most intense geomagnetic storms of solar cycle 23 (Dst peak = -263 nT). This structure has been associated with the two-ribbon flare, filament eruption, and coronal mass ejection originating in active region 10759 (NOAA number). We analyze here the sequence of events, from solar wind measurements (at 1 AU) and back to the Sun, to understand the origin and evolution of this geoeffective ICME. From a detailed observational study of in situ magnetic field observations and plasma parameters in the interplanetary (IP) medium and the use of appropriate models we propose an alternative interpretation of the IP observations, different to those discussed in previous studies. In our view, the IP structure is formed by two extremely close consecutive magnetic clouds (MCs) that preserve their identity during their propagation through the interplanetary medium. Consequently, we identify two solar events in H...

  8. Heating of the Solar Corona and its Loops

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klimchuk, James A.

    2009-01-01

    At several million degrees, the solar corona is more than two orders of magnitude hotter than the underlying solar surface. The reason for these extreme conditions has been a puzzle for decades and is considered one of the fundamental problems in astrophysics. Much of the coronal plasma is organized by the magnetic field into arch-like structures called loops. Recent observational and theoretical advances have led to great progress in understanding the nature of these loops. In particular, we now believe they are bundles of unresolved magnetic strands that are heated by storms of impulsive energy bursts called nanoflares. Turbulent convection at the solar surface shuffles the footpoints of the strands and causes them to become tangled. A nanoflare occurs when the magnetic stresses reach a critical threshold, probably by way of a mechanism called the secondary instability. I will describe our current state of knowledge concerning the corona, its loops, and how they are heated.

  9. Design of Optical System for Solar Extreme-Ultraviolet Imaging Spectrometer%太阳极紫外成像光谱仪光学系统设计

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘壮; 巩岩

    2012-01-01

    Hyper-spectral imaging observation of the sun in the EUV region is an important method of research for solar's upper transition region, corona and plasma's physical property. Based on the application objective of solar extreme ultraviolet imaging spectrometer(SEUlS), combined with the current states of domestic and foreign extreme ultraviolet imaging spectrometer, a few of parameters for SEUIS design were drew up in the present paper. The advantages and disadvantages of all kinds of optical configurations were discussed,and the configuration of combination of telescope and spectrometer was chosen. The available main components were also described, off-axis parabolic mirror was chosen for telescope, and a high density uniform-line-space toroidal grating for dispersion device. The optical system which satisfies the performance parameters was designed The design process, detailed parameters and results were presented in the end. The working wavelength of the optics system is 17. 0~21. 0 nm, the field of view is 1 228"×1 024", the spatial resolution is 0. 8 arc sec ? Pixel-1, the spectral resolution is about 0. 00198 nm ? Pixel-1, and the total length of system is about 2.8m.%在极紫外波段对太阳进行超光谱成像观测是研究太阳上层大气,日冕中等离子物理特性的重要手段.依据太阳极紫外成像光谱仪的应用,结合国内外极紫外成像光谱仪发展现状,制定了太阳极紫外成像光谱仪的性能指标.通过比较各种光学结构的优缺点,选择望远镜与光谱仪组合的结构.讨论并选择了可用的基本元器件,望远系统采用离轴抛物面反射镜,分光器件为高密度超环面等间距光栅.设计出符合指标的光学系统.最后给出了太阳极紫外成像光谱仪的设计过程、详细参数与结果.光学系统的工作波段为17.0~21.0nm,视场是1228″×1024″,空间分辨率达到0.8 arcsec·pixel-1,光谱分辨率约为0.001 98 nm·pixel-1,系统总长度约为2.8m.

  10. Scaling coastal dune elevation changes across storm-impact regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Joseph W.; de Bakker, Anouk T. M.; Plant, Nathaniel G.

    2014-01-01

    Extreme storms drive change in coastal areas, including destruction of dune systems that protect coastal populations. Data from four extreme storms impacting four geomorphically diverse barrier islands are used to quantify dune elevation change. This change is compared to storm characteristics to identify variability in dune response, improve understanding of morphological interactions, and provide estimates of scaling parameters applicable for future prediction. Locations where total water levels did not exceed the dune crest experienced elevation change of less than 10%. Regions where wave-induced water levels exceeded the dune crest exhibited a positive linear relationship between the height of water over the dune and the dune elevation change. In contrast, a negative relationship was observed when surge exceeded the dune crest. Results indicate that maximum dune elevation, and therefore future vulnerability, may be more impacted from lower total water levels where waves drive sediment over the dune rather than surge-dominated flooding events.

  11. Study of the mid-latitude ionospheric response to geomagnetic storms in the European region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berényi, Kitti Alexandra; Barta, Veronika; Kis, Arpad

    2016-07-01

    Geomagnetic storms affect the ionospheric regions of the terrestrial upper atmosphere through different physical and atmospheric processes. The phenomena that can be regarded as a result of these processes, generally is named as "ionospheric storm". The processes depend on altitude, segment of the day, the geomagnetic latitude and longitude, strength of solar activity and the type of the geomagnetic storm. We examine the data of ground-based radio wave ionosphere sounding measurements of European ionospheric stations (mainly the data of Nagycenk Geophysical Observatory) in order to determine how and to what extent a geomagnetic disturbance of a certain strength affects the mid-latitude ionospheric regions in winter and in summer. For our analysis we used disturbed time periods between November 2012 and June 2015. Our results show significant changing of the ionospheric F2 layer parameters on strongly disturbed days compared to quiet ones. We show that the critical frequencies (foF2) increase compared to their quiet day value when the ionospheric storm was positive. On the other hand, the critical frequencies become lower, when the storm was negative. In our analysis we determined the magnitude of these changes on the chosen days. For a more complete analysis we compare also the evolution of the F2 layer parameters of the European ionosonde stations on a North-South geographic longitude during a full storm duration. The results present the evolution of an ionospheric storm over a geographic meridian. Furthermore, we compared the two type of geomagnetic storms, namely the CME caused geomagnetic storm - the so-called Sudden impulse (Si) storms- and the HSS (High Speed Solar Wind Streams) caused geomagnetic storms -the so-called Gradual storms (Gs)- impact on the ionospheric F2-layer (foF2 parameter). The results show a significant difference between the effect of Si and of the Gs storms on the ionospheric F2-layer.

  12. Operations Strategies for the Mars Exploration Rovers During the 2007 Martian Global Dust Storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seibert, Michael; Herman, Jennifer; ElDeeb, Dina

    2009-01-01

    In June and July 2007 Mars experienced a dust storm that grew to envelop all but the polar latitudes of the planet. This dust storm was the first global dust storm to occur while the twin Mars Exploration Rovers (MER) began surface operations. It is estimated that the dust in the atmosphere prevented over 99.6% of direct sunlight from reaching the surface at the peak of the storm. Data collected indicated that solar array energy output was reduced to approximately 15% of maximum. The reduction in insolation and energy output posed the greatest risk of ending the mission for both rovers at that time.

  13. Effects of the intense geomagnetic storm of September-October 2012 on the equatorial, low- and mid-latitude F region in the American and African sector during the unusual 24th solar cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Jesus, R.; Fagundes, P. R.; Coster, A.; Bolaji, O. S.; Sobral, J. H. A.; Batista, I. S.; de Abreu, A. J.; Venkatesh, K.; Gende, M.; Abalde, J. R.; Sumod, S. G.

    2016-02-01

    The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the response of the ionospheric F layer in the American and African sectors during the intense geomagnetic storm which occurred on 30 September-01 October 2012. In this work, we used observations from a chain of 20 GPS stations in the equatorial, low- and mid-latitude regions in the American and African sectors. Also, in this study ionospheric sounding data obtained during 29th September to 2nd October, 2012 at Jicamarca (JIC), Peru, São Luis (SL), Fortaleza (FZ), Brazil, and Port Stanley (PST), are presented. On the night of 30 September-01 October, in the main and recovery phase, the h´F variations showed an unusual uplifting of the F region at equatorial (JIC, SL and FZ) and mid- (PST) latitude stations related with the propagations of traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) generated by Joule heating at auroral regions. On 30 September, the VTEC variations and foF2 observations at mid-latitude stations (American sector) showed a long-duration positive ionospheric storm (over 6 h of enhancement) associated with large-scale wind circulations and equatorward neutral winds. Also, on 01 October, a long-duration positive ionospheric storm was observed at equatorial, low- and mid- latitude stations in the African sector, related with the large-scale wind circulations and equatorward neutral winds. On 01 and 02 October, positive ionospheric storms were observed at equatorial, low- and mid-latitude stations in the American sector, possibly associated with the TIDs and an equatorward neutral wind. Also, on 01 October negative ionospheric storms were observed at equatorial, low- and mid-latitude regions in the American sector, probably associated with the changes in the O/N2 ratio. On the night of 30 September-01 October, ionospheric plasma bubbles were observed at equatorial, low- and mid- latitude stations in the South American sector, possibly associated with the occurrence of geomagnetic storm.

  14. TRAMWAY SYSTEM VULNERABILITIES CAUSED BY STORM. CASE STUDY: LIGHTNING IN ORADEA, 10-TH JUNE 2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CSUZI I.

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Short history, theoretical presentation, risk analysis of damage probability of extreme weather effects, lightning and storm, technical and economic aspects, recommendation for public transport operators. Case study: example of a lightning damage effects in Oradea.

  15. Leonid storm research

    CERN Document Server

    Rietmeijer, Frans; Brosch, Noah; Fonda, Mark

    2000-01-01

    This book will appeal to all researchers that have an interest in the current Leonid showers It contains over forty research papers that present some of the first observational results of the November 1999 Leonid meteor storm, the first storm observed by modern observing techniques The book is a first glimpse of the large amount of information obtained during NASA's Leonid Multi-Instrument Aircraft Campaign and groundbased campaigns throughout the world It provides an excellent overview on the state of meteor shower research for any professional researcher or amateur meteor observer interested in studies of meteors and meteoroids and their relation to comets, the origin of life on Earth, the satellite impact hazard issue, and upper atmosphere studies of neutral atom chemistry, the formation of meteoric debris, persistent trains, airglow, noctilucent clouds, sprites and elves

  16. Development in the STORM

    OpenAIRE

    Kamiyama, Daichi; Huang, Bo

    2012-01-01

    The recent invention of super-resolution microscopy has brought up much excitement in the biological research community. Here, we will focus on Stochastic Optical Reconstruction Microscopy/Photoactivated Localization Microscopy (STORM/PALM) to discuss the challenges in applying super-resolution microscopy to the study of developmental biology, including tissue imaging, sample preparation artifacts, and image interpretation. We will also summarize new opportunities that super-resolution micros...

  17. Ice storm `98

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soulard, F.; Trant, D.; Filoso, J.; Van Wesenbeeck, P. [Statistics Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada). Environment Statistics Program

    1998-12-31

    As much as 100 millimeters of freezing rain fell on central and eastern Canada between January 4 to 10, 1998. This study concentrates on Canada`s St. Lawrence River Valley where total precipitation exceeded 73 mm in Kingston, 85 mm in Ottawa and 100 mm in areas south of Montreal. By comparison, the largest previously recorded ice storms left between 30 and 40 mm of ice. A state of emergency was declared for the affected regions. 56 per cent of Quebec`s population and 11 per cent of Ontario`s population were affected by the storm. Over 1000 power transmission towers collapsed and more than 30,000 wooden utility poles were brought down. In Quebec, nearly 1.4 million customers were left without electricity. In Ontario that number was about 230,000. While some manufacturers benefited directly from the storm, including makers of hydro and telephone poles, batteries and specialized electrical equipment, the overall economic losses for Montreal and Ottawa were high as estimates run to $585 million and $114 million, respectively. Almost 5 million sugar maple taps in Quebec and Ontario were located and suffered some damage in the affected areas. Nearly one-quarter (274,000) of all dairy cows were also located in the affected areas. Since in the absence of electricity they could not be milked, many of them suffered from mastitis. Many succumbed, others that survived may never attain their former level of productivity. As of June 1998, over 600,000 insurance claims totaling one billion dollars had been filed by Canadian households and businesses from the area affected by the ice storm.1 fig.

  18. LibrarySTORM

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Breüner, Niels; Bech, Tine

    2013-01-01

    Når flere uddannelser samles i en nybygning til Campus C på Ceres grunden i Aarhus, skal der også indrettes et fælles bibliotek. Når der samtidig er midler til at arbejde med brugerdreven innovation, lå det lige for at inddrage de studerende og få deres visioner for fremtidens bibliotek. Der blev...... arrangeret en udviklingsdag, hvor der skulle brainstormes – og projektet blev kaldt LibrarySTORM....

  19. Weathering the financial storm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ólafsson, Tjörvi; Pétursson, Thórarinn G.

    2011-01-01

    to explain a significant share of the cross-country variation in the depth and duration of the crisis and provide quite sharp predictions of the incidence of banking and currency crises. This suggests that country-specific initial conditions played an important role in determining the economic impact...... of the crisis and, in particular, that countries with sound fundamentals and flexible economic frameworks were better able to weather the financial storm....

  20. LibrarySTORM

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Breüner, Niels; Bech, Tine

    2013-01-01

    Når flere uddannelser samles i en nybygning til Campus C på Ceres grunden i Aarhus, skal der også indrettes et fælles bibliotek. Når der samtidig er midler til at arbejde med brugerdreven innovation, lå det lige for at inddrage de studerende og få deres visioner for fremtidens bibliotek. Der blev...... arrangeret en udviklingsdag, hvor der skulle brainstormes – og projektet blev kaldt LibrarySTORM....

  1. Flash flooding in small urban watersheds: Storm event hydrologic response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Long; Smith, James A.; Baeck, Mary Lynn; Zhang, Yan

    2016-06-01

    We analyze flash flooding in small urban watersheds, with special focus on the roles of rainfall variability, antecedent soil moisture, and urban storm water management infrastructure in storm event hydrologic response. Our results are based on empirical analyses of high-resolution rainfall and discharge observations over Harry's Brook watershed in Princeton, New Jersey, during 2005-2006, as well as numerical experiments with the Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) model. We focus on two subwatersheds of Harry's Brook, a 1.1 km2 subwatershed which was developed prior to modern storm water management regulations, and a 0.5 km2 subwatershed with an extensive network of storm water detention ponds. The watershed developed prior to modern storm water regulations is an "end-member" in urban flood response, exhibiting a frequency of flood peaks (with unit discharge exceeding 1 m3 s-1 km-2) that is comparable to the "flashiest" watersheds in the conterminous U.S. Observational analyses show that variability in storm event water balance is strongly linked to peak rain rates at time intervals of less than 30 min and only weakly linked to antecedent soil moisture conditions. Peak discharge for both the 1.1 and 0.5 km2 subwatersheds are strongly correlated with rainfall rate averaged over 1-30 min. Hydrologic modeling analyses indicate that the sensitivity of storm event hydrologic response to spatial rainfall variability decreases with storm intensity. Temporal rainfall variability is relatively more important than spatial rainfall variability in representing urban flood response, especially for extreme storm events.

  2. Estimation of IT energy budget during the St. Patrick's Day storm 2015: observations, modeling and challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verkhoglyadova, O. P.; Meng, X.; Mannucci, A. J.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Hunt, L. A.; Tsurutani, B.

    2015-12-01

    We present estimates for the energy budget of the 2015 St. Patrick's Day storm. Empirical models and coupling functions are used as proxies for energy input due to solar wind-magnetosphere coupling. Fluxes of thermospheric nitric oxide and carbon dioxide cooling emissions are estimated in several latitude ranges. Solar wind data and the Weimer 2005 model for high-latitude electrodynamics are used to drive GITM modeling for the storm. Model estimations for energy partitioning, Joule heating, NO cooling are compared with observations and empirical proxies. We outline challenges in the estimation of the IT energy budget (Joule heating, Poynting flux, particle precipitation) during geomagnetic storms.

  3. Using forecast information for storm ride-through control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barahona Garzón, Braulio; Trombe, Pierre-Julien; Vincent, Claire Louise;

    2013-01-01

    Using probabilistic forecast information in control algorithms can improve the performance of wind farms during periods of extreme winds. This work presents a wind farm supervisor control concept that uses probabilistic forecast information to ride-through a storm with softer ramps of power. Wind...

  4. Geoeffectiveness and efficiency of CIR, Sheath and ICME in generation of magnetic storms

    CERN Document Server

    Yermolaev, Yu I; Lodkina, I G; Yermolaev, M Yu

    2011-01-01

    We investigate relative role of various types of solar wind streams in generation of magnetic storms. On the basis of the OMNI data of interplanetary measurements for the period of 1976-2000 we analyze 798 geomagnetic storms with Dst < -50 nT and their interplanetary sources: corotating interaction regions (CIR), interplanetary CME (ICME) including magnetic clouds (MC) and Ejecta and compression regions Sheath before both types of ICME. For various types of solar wind we study following relative characteristics: occurrence rate; mass, momentum, energy and magnetic fluxes; probability of generation of magnetic storm (geoeffectiveness) and efficiency of process of this generation. Obtained results show that despite magnetic clouds have lower occurrence rate and lower efficiency than CIR and Sheath they play an essential role in generation of magnetic storms due to higher geoeffectiveness of storm generation (i.e higher probability to contain large and long-term southward IMF Bz component).

  5. A Carrington-like geomagnetic storm observed in the 21st century

    CERN Document Server

    Cid, C; Guerrero, A; Palacios, J; Cerrato, Y

    2015-01-01

    In September 1859 the Colaba observatory measured the most extreme geomagnetic disturbance ever recorded at low latitudes related to solar activity: the Carrington storm. This paper describes a geomagnetic disturbance case with a profile extraordinarily similar to the disturbance of the Carrington event at Colaba: the event on 29 October 2003 at Tihany magnetic observatory in Hungary. The analysis of the H-field at different locations during the "Carrington-like" event leads to a re-interpretation of the 1859 event. The major conclusions of the paper are the following: (a) the global Dst or SYM-H, as indices based on averaging, missed the largest geomagnetic disturbance in the 29 October 2003 event and might have missed the 1859 disturbance, since the large spike in the horizontal component (H) of terrestrial magnetic field depends strongly on magnetic local time (MLT); (b) the main cause of the large drop in H recorded at Colaba during the Carrington storm was not the ring current but field-aligned currents ...

  6. Latitudinal variation of 732.0 nm dayglow emission under geomagnetic storm conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Vir; Dharwan, Maneesha

    2016-07-01

    A comprehensive model is developed to study 732.0 nm dayglow emission. The Solar2000 EUV (extreme ultraviolet) flux model, neutral atmosphere model (NRLMSISE-00), latest transition probabilities and updated reaction rate coefficients are incorporated in the present model. The modeled volume emission rates (VER) are compared with the measurements as provided by Atmosphere Explorer-C satellite, Dynamics Explorer-2 spacecraft and WINDII measurements. The model is found in very good agreement with the measurements. This model is used to study the effects of geomagnetic storm on the 732.0 nm dayglow emission at various latitudes in northern hemisphere. It is found that the VER decreases as the latitude increases. The decrease in VER from low to mid latitudes is due to the decrease in atomic oxygen number density with latitude. The zenith intensity at the maximum geomagnetic activity is about 15% higher than the zenith intensity before the start of the geomagnetic storm in equatorial region. However, no appreciable change in the zenith intensity is found at higher latitudes (above 50° N). Further a negative correlation is found between the volume emission rate and DST index at all latitudes.

  7. A Carrington-like geomagnetic storm observed in the 21st century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cid Consuelo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In September 1859 the Colaba observatory measured the most extreme geomagnetic disturbance ever recorded at low latitudes related to solar activity: the Carrington storm. This paper describes a geomagnetic disturbance case with a profile extraordinarily similar to the disturbance of the Carrington event at Colaba: the event on 29 October 2003 at Tihany magnetic observatory in Hungary. The analysis of the H-field at different locations during the “Carrington-like” event leads to a re-interpretation of the 1859 event. The major conclusions of the paper are the following: (a the global Dst or SYM-H, as indices based on averaging, missed the largest geomagnetic disturbance in the 29 October 2003 event and might have missed the 1859 disturbance, since the large spike in the horizontal component (H of terrestrial magnetic field depends strongly on magnetic local time (MLT; (b the main cause of the large drop in H recorded at Colaba during the Carrington storm was not the ring current but field-aligned currents (FACs; and (c the very local signatures of the H-spike imply that a Carrington-like event can occur more often than expected.

  8. Multipoint Measurements and Global Simulations of the June 23, 2015 Geomagnetic Storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buzulukova, Natalia; Fok, Mei-Ching; Moore, Thomas E.; Glocer, Alex; Dorelli, John; Sibeck, David; Angelopoulos, Vassilis; Valek, Phil; McComas, David

    2016-04-01

    On 22-23 June 2015 a severe geomagnetic storm occurred with Dst minimum of approximately -200nT. During this extreme event, multipoint observations of magnetospheric dynamics were obtained by a fleet of Geospace spacecraft including MMS, TWINS, Van-Allen Probes and THEMIS. Extensive data coverage allows us to examine the responses of the ring current, radiation belts, ion composition and wave activity during this unusual event, both for the main phase of the storm as well as for the recovery phase. We present results of analysis of satellite data and simulation from a global coupled MHD-ring current model-radiation belt model (BATSRUS-CIMI) to connect multipoint observations from different parts of the magnetosphere. The output of virtual s/c in the global model is calculated and compared with the observations. The analysis helps to identify different magnetospheric domains from multipoint measurements and various magnetospheric boundary motions. We find the model is able to capture the global structure of the magnetosphere. We also explore how the initial disturbance from the solar wind propagates through the magnetosphere causing energization of plasma in the inner magnetosphere and producing severe geomagnetic activity.

  9. Geomagnetic storm effects on GPS based navigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. V. S. Rama Rao

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The energetic events on the sun, solar wind and subsequent effects on the Earth's geomagnetic field and upper atmosphere (ionosphere comprise space weather. Modern navigation systems that use radio-wave signals, reflecting from or propagating through the ionosphere as a means of determining range or distance, are vulnerable to a variety of effects that can degrade the performance of the navigational systems. In particular, the Global Positioning System (GPS that uses a constellation of earth orbiting satellites are affected due to the space weather phenomena.

    Studies made during two successive geomagnetic storms that occurred during the period from 8 to 12 November 2004, have clearly revealed the adverse affects on the GPS range delay as inferred from the Total Electron Content (TEC measurements made from a chain of seven dual frequency GPS receivers installed in the Indian sector. Significant increases in TEC at the Equatorial Ionization anomaly crest region are observed, resulting in increased range delay during the periods of the storm activity. Further, the storm time rapid changes occurring in TEC resulted in a number of phase slips in the GPS signal compared to those on quiet days. These phase slips often result in the loss of lock of the GPS receivers, similar to those that occur during strong(>10 dB L-band scintillation events, adversely affecting the GPS based navigation.

  10. Solar activity impact on the Earth’s upper atmosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Parisi Mario

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes results of the studies devoted to the solar activity impact on the Earth’s upper atmosphere and ionosphere, conducted within the frame of COST ES0803 Action. Aim: The aim of the paper is to represent results coming from different research groups in a unified form, aligning their specific topics into the general context of the subject. Methods: The methods used in the paper are based on data-driven analysis. Specific databases are used for spectrum analysis, empirical modeling, electron density profile reconstruction, and forecasting techniques. Results: Results are grouped in three sections: Medium- and long-term ionospheric response to the changes in solar and geomagnetic activity, storm-time ionospheric response to the solar and geomagnetic forcing, and modeling and forecasting techniques. Section 1 contains five subsections with results on 27-day response of low-latitude ionosphere to solar extreme-ultraviolet (EUV radiation, response to the recurrent geomagnetic storms, long-term trends in the upper atmosphere, latitudinal dependence of total electron content on EUV changes, and statistical analysis of ionospheric behavior during prolonged period of solar activity. Section 2 contains a study of ionospheric variations induced by recurrent CIR-driven storm, a case-study of polar cap absorption due to an intense CME, and a statistical study of geographic distribution of so-called E-layer dominated ionosphere. Section 3 comprises empirical models for describing and forecasting TEC, the F-layer critical frequency foF2, and the height of maximum plasma density. A study evaluates the usefulness of effective sunspot number in specifying the ionosphere state. An original method is presented, which retrieves the basic thermospheric parameters from ionospheric sounding data.

  11. The Mild Space Weather in Solar Cycle 24

    CERN Document Server

    Gopalswamy, Nat; Yashiro, Seiji; Xie, Hong; Makela, Pertti; Michalek, Grzegorz

    2015-01-01

    The space weather is extremely mild during solar cycle 24: the number of major geomagnetic storms and high-energy solar energetic particle events are at the lowest since the dawn of the space age. Solar wind measurements at 1 AU using Wind and ACE instruments have shown that there is a significant drop in the density, magnetic field, total pressure, and Alfven speed in the inner heliosphere as a result of the low solar activity. The drop in large space weather events is disproportionately high because the number of energetic coronal mass ejections that cause these events has not decreased significantly. For example, the rate of halo CMEs, which is a good indicator of energetic CMEs, is similar to that in cycle 23, even though the sunspot number has declined by about 40%. The mild space weather seems to be a consequence of the anomalous expansion of CMEs due to the low ambient pressure in the heliosphere. The anomalous expansion results in the dilution of the magnetic contents of CMEs, so the geomagnetic storm...

  12. Traveling planetary wave ionospheric disturbances and their role in the generation of equatorial spread-F and GPS phase fluctuations during the last extreme low solar activity and comparison with high solar activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Abreu, A. J.; Fagundes, P. R.; Bolzan, M. J. A.; Gende, M.; Brunini, C.; de Jesus, R.; Pillat, V. G.; Abalde, J. R.; Lima, W. L. C.

    2014-09-01

    This investigation studies traveling planetary wave ionospheric disturbance (TPWID) type oscillations on the modulation of the F region virtual height rise during the E×B electric field pre-reversal enhancement (PRE), near sunset hours. We also studied their role in the generation of equatorial spread F (ESF) and GPS phase fluctuations during periods of the last extreme low solar activity (LSA) of January 2009 to April 2010 (F10.7bar=73). A comparison is made with periods of high solar activity (HSA) in 2003 and 2004 near equatorial region. The ionospheric irregularities investigated are medium (bottom-side) and large (plasma bubble) scales. Ionospheric F region oscillations with period of days are due to the TPWIDs, which play an important role in producing favorable or unfavorable conditions for equatorial ionospheric irregularities, changing the electron vertical profile and F region height. In this paper, we present simultaneous ionospheric sounding (ionosonde) and GPS vertical total electron content (vTEC) observations carried out near equatorial region (Palmas 10.2°S, 48.2°W) and low latitude region (São José dos Campos 23.2°S, 45.9°W; located under the southern crest of the equatorial ionospheric anomaly), Brazil. Observations show that the occurrence of fresh ESF during LSA and HSA and fresh GPS phase fluctuations at equatorial region follow the trend of day-to-day variations in the F region virtual height, which are due to electric field PRE modulated by TPWID wave like oscillations. During LSA, the altitude of 250 km acts as a threshold height for the generation of fresh ionospheric irregularities, whereas during HSA, the threshold height is 300 km. The observations also found a strong increase in the generation of fresh ionospheric irregularities from October 2009 to March 2010 during LSA and from September 2003 to March 2004 during the HSA. Furthermore, in LSA, the period of fresh ionospheric irregularities was less than during HSA, though both

  13. Power grid disturbances and polar cap index during geomagnetic storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stauning, Peter

    2013-06-01

    The strong geomagnetic storm in the evening of 30 October 2003 caused high-voltage power grid disturbances in Sweden that expanded to produce hour-long power line outage in Malmö located in the southern part of the country. This was not a unique situation. The geomagnetic storm on 13 March 1989 caused extensive disruptions of high-voltage power circuits especially in the Province of Quebec, Canada, but also to a lesser degree in Scandinavia. Similar events have occurred earlier, among others, during the great storms of 13-14 July 1982 and 8-9 February 1986. These high-voltage power grid disturbances were related to impulsive magnetic variations accompanying extraordinarily intense substorm events. The events were preceded by lengthy intervals of unusually high values of the Polar Cap (PC) index caused by enhanced transpolar ionospheric convection. The transpolar convection transports magnetic flux from the dayside to nightside which causes equatorward displacements of the region of auroral activity enabling the substorms to hit vital power grids. During the 30 October 2003 event the intense solar proton radiation disabled the ACE satellite observations widely used to provide forecast of magnetic storm events. Hence in this case the alarmingly high PC index could provide useful warning of the storm as a back-up of the missing ACE-based forecast. In further cases, monitoring the PC index level could provide supplementary storm warnings to the benefit of power grid operators.

  14. Wonders of the solar system

    CERN Document Server

    Cox, Brian

    2011-01-01

    The Sunday Times Bestseller In Wonders of the Solar System - the book of the acclaimed BBC TV series - Professor Brian Cox will take us on a journey of discovery where alien worlds from your imagination become places we can see, feel and visit. The Wonders of the Solar System - from the giant ice fountains of Enceladus to the liquid methane seas of Titan and from storms twice the size of the Earth to the tortured moon of Io with its giant super-volcanoes - is the Solar System as you have never seen it before. In this series, Professor Brian Cox will introduce us to the planets and moons beyond our world, finding the biggest, most bizarre, most powerful natural phenomena. Using the latest scientific imagery along with cutting edge CGI and some of the most spectacular and extreme locations on Earth, Brian will show us Wonders never thought possible. Employing his trademark clear, authoritative, yet down-to-earth approach, Brian will explore how these previously unseen phenomena have dramatically expanded our ho...

  15. Risk Assessment of Hurricane Storm Surge for Tampa Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, N.; Emanuel, K.

    2011-12-01

    , Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model with grids of various resolutions to simulate the surges induced by the synthetic storms. The surge risk under each of the climate scenarios is depicted by a surge return level curve (exceedance probability curve). For the city of Tampa, the heights of the 100-year, 500-year, and 1000-year surges under the current climate are estimated to be 3.85, 5.66, and 6.31 m, respectively. Two of the four climate models predict that surge return periods will be significantly shortened in the future climates due to the change of storm climatology; the current 100-year surge may happen every 50 years or less, the 500-year surge every 200 years or less, and the 1000-year surge every 300 years or less. The other two climate models predict that the surge return periods will become moderately shorter or remain almost unchanged in the future climates. Extreme surges up to 12 m at Tampa appear in our simulations. Although occurring with very small probabilities, these extreme surges would have a devastating impact on the Tampa Bay area. By examining the generated synthetic surge database, we study the characteristics of the extreme storms at Tampa Bay, especially for the storms that may interact with edge waves along the Florida west coast.

  16. Review of techniques for magnetic storm forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Detman, Thomas R.; Vassiliadis, Dimitris

    Today a wide variety of techniques are available for nowcasting and forecasting magnetic storm activity. A brief review of linear time series prediction techniques, with examples, is used to lay a foundation for the description of newer non-linear techniques based on state-space reconstruction. We illustrate the state-space prediction technique in application to predict Dst from ISEE-3 solar wind data. Upstream solar wind data, such as from ISEE-3 or WTND close to the L1 libration point, provide a prediction lead time of 0.5-1.5 hours. To go beyond the L1 prediction lead time some information about the solar wind between the Li point and the Sun is required. Remote sensing is the measurement of something from a distance, like solar magnetograms or X-ray images. Both empirical and physically based models, driven by remote sensing data, promise a way to make forecasts a few days into the future. A combination of the statistical time series prediction techniques operating on the output of physically based models, driven by remote sensing data, may offer the first capability of predicting magnetic storms a few days in advance. We illustrate this combination of techniques using the output of a potential field model [Wang and Sheeley, 1988] as input to a linear prediction filter to forecast the planetary geomagnetic index. Finally, practical forecasting requires verification. We describe some of the standard measures of forecast performance: skill score, prediction efficiency, and correlation coefficient. The value of cross validation testing is emphasized.

  17. The Lake Victoria Intense Storm Early Warning System (VIEWS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiery, Wim; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Bedka, Kristopher; Semazzi, Fredrick; Lhermitte, Stef; Willems, Patrick; van Lipzig, Nicole; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2017-04-01

    Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria in East Africa. Every year, intense nighttime thunderstorms cause numerous boating accidents on the lake, resulting in thousands of deaths among fishermen. Operational storm warning systems are therefore crucial. Here we complement ongoing early warning efforts based on NWP, by presenting a new satellite data-driven storm prediction system, the prototype Lake Victoria Intense storm Early Warning System (VIEWS). VIEWS derives predictability from the correlation between afternoon land storm activity and nighttime storm intensity on Lake Victoria, and relies on logistic regression techniques to forecast extreme thunderstorms from satellite observations. Evaluation of the statistical model reveals that predictive power is high and independent of the input dataset. We then optimise the configuration and show that also false alarms contain valuable information. Our results suggest that regression-based models that are motivated through process understanding have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of local fishing communities around Lake Victoria. The experimental prediction system is publicly available under the MIT licence at http://github.com/wthiery/VIEWS.

  18. Magnetic storm effect on the occurrence of ionospheric irregularities at an equatorial station in the African sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olushola Abel Oladipo

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Large-scale ionospheric irregularities usually measured by GPS TEC fluctuation indices are regular occurrence at the equatorial region shortly after sunset around solar maximum. Magnetic storm can trigger or inhibit the generation of these irregularities depending on the local time the main phase of a particular storm occurs. We studied the effect of nine (9 distinct storms on the occurrence of ionospheric irregularities at Fraceville in Gabon (Lat = −1.63˚, Long = 13.55˚, dip lat. = −15.94˚, an equatorial station in the African sector. These storms occurred between November 2001 and September 2002. We used TEC fluctuation indices (i.e. ROTI and ROTIAVE estimated from 30 s interval Rinex data and also we used the storm indices (i.e. Dst, dDst/dt, and IMF BZ to predict the likely effect of each storm on the irregularities occurrence at this station. The results obtained showed that most of the storms studied inhibited ionospheric irregularities. Only one out of all the storms studied (i.e. September 4, 2002 storms with the main phase on the night of September 7-8 triggered post-midnight ionospheric irregularities. There are two of the storms during which ionospheric irregularities were observed. However, these may not be solely attributed to the storms event because the level of irregularities observed during these two storms is comparable to that observed during previous days before the storms. For this station and for the storms investigated, it seems like a little modification to the use of Aarons categories in terms of the local time the maximum negative Dst occurs could lead to a better prediction. However, it would require investigating many storms during different level of solar activities and at different latitudes to generalize this modification.

  19. Storm surge variational assimilation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shi-li HUANG

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available To eliminate errors caused by uncertainty of parameters and further improve capability of storm surge forecasting, the variational data assimilation method is applied to the storm surge model based on unstructured grid with high spatial resolution. The method can effectively improve the forecasting accuracy of storm surge induced by typhoon through controlling wind drag force coefficient parameter. The model is first theoretically validated with synthetic data. Then, the real storm surge process induced by the TC 0515 typhoon is forecasted by the variational data assimilation model, and results show the feasibility of practical application.

  20. The Association between Dust Storms and Daily Non ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Background:The impact of dust storms on human health has been studied in the context of Asian,Saharan, Arabian, and Australian storms,but there has been no recent population-level epidemiological research on the dust storms in North America . The relevance of dust storms to public health is likely to increase as extreme weather events are predicted to become more frequent with anticipated changes in climate through the 21st century.Objectives: We examined the association between dust storms and county-level non-accidental mortality in the United States from 1993 through 2005.Methods:Dust storm incidence data, including date and approximate location. are taken from the U.S. National Weather Service storm database. County-level mortality data for the years 1993-2005 were acquired from the National Center for Health Statistics. Distributed lag conditionallogistic regression models under a time-stratified case-crossover design were used to study the relationship between dust storms and daily mortality counts over the whole United States and in Arizona and California specifically. End points included total non-accidental mortality and three mortality subgroups (cardiovascular, respiratory, and other non-acc idental).Results: We estimated that for the United States as a whole, total non-accidental mortality increased by 7.4% (95% Cl: 1.6, 13.5; p = 0.011) and 6.7% (95% Cl: 1.1,12.6; p = 0.018) at 2- and 3-day lags, respectively, and by an average of 2.7% (95% Cl: 0.4,

  1. Effect of hurricanes and violent storms on salt marsh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonardi, N.; Ganju, N. K.; Fagherazzi, S.

    2016-12-01

    Salt marsh losses have been documented worldwide because of land use change, wave erosion, and sea-level rise. It is still unclear how resistant salt marshes are to extreme storms and whether they can survive multiple events without collapsing. Based on a large dataset of salt marsh lateral erosion rates collected around the world, here, we determine the general response of salt marsh boundaries to wave action under normal and extreme weather conditions. As wave energy increases, salt marsh response to wind waves remains linear, and there is not a critical threshold in wave energy above which salt marsh erosion drastically accelerates. We apply our general formulation for salt marsh erosion to historical wave climates at eight salt marsh locations affected by hurricanes in the United States. Based on the analysis of two decades of data, we find that violent storms and hurricanes contribute less than 1% to long-term salt marsh erosion rates. In contrast, moderate storms with a return period of 2.5 mo are those causing the most salt marsh deterioration. Therefore, salt marshes seem more susceptible to variations in mean wave energy rather than changes in the extremes. The intrinsic resistance of salt marshes to violent storms and their predictable erosion rates during moderate events should be taken into account by coastal managers in restoration projects and risk management plans.

  2. Hemispheric Differences in the Response of the Upper Atmosphere to the August 2011 Geomagnetic Storm: A Simulation Study

    OpenAIRE

    Yiğit, Erdal; Frey, Harald U.; Moldwin, Mark B.; Immel, Thomas J.; Ridley, Aaron J.

    2015-01-01

    Using a three-dimensional nonhydrostatic general circulation model, we investigate the response of the thermosphere-ionosphere system to the 5-6 August 2011 major geomagnetic storm. The model is driven by measured storm-time input data of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF), solar activity, and auroral activity. Simulations for quiet steady conditions over the same period are performed as well in order to assess the response of the neutral and plasma parameters to the storm. During the st...

  3. Probabilistic Storm Surge Hazard Assessment in Martinique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krien, Yann; Dudon, Bernard; Sansorgne, Eliot; Roger, Jean; Zahibo, Narcisse; Roquelaure, Stevie

    2013-04-01

    Located at the center of the Lesser Antilles, Martinique is under the threat of hurricanes formed over the warm tropical waters of the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea. These events can be extremely costly in terms of human, property, and economic losses. Storm surge hazard studies are hence required to provide guidance to emergency managers and decision-makers. A few studies have been conducted so far in the French Lesser Antilles, but they mainly rely on scarce historical data of extreme sea levels or numerical models with coarse resolutions. Recent progress in statistical techniques for generating large number of synthetic hurricanes as well as availability of high-resolution topographic and bathymetric data (LIDAR) and improved numerical models enables us today to conduct storm surge hazard assessment studies with much more accuracy. Here we present a methodology to assess cyclonic surge hazard in Martinique both at regional and local scales. We first simulate the storm surges that would be induced by a large set of potential events generated by the statistical/deterministic models of Emanuel et al. [2006]. We use the ADCIRC-SWAN coupled models (Dietrich et al 2012) to simulate inundation inland with grid resolutions of up to 50-100m in the coastal area for the whole island.These models are validated against observations during past events such as hurricane Dean in 2007. The outputs can then be used in some specific sites to force higher resolution models for crisis management and local risk assessment studies. This work is supported by the INTERREG IV « Caribbean » program TSUNAHOULE.

  4. Towards a unified study of extreme events using universality concepts and transdisciplinary analysis methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balasis, George; Donner, Reik V.; Donges, Jonathan F.; Radebach, Alexander; Eftaxias, Konstantinos; Kurths, Jürgen

    2013-04-01

    The dynamics of many complex systems is characterized by the same universal principles. In particular, systems which are otherwise quite different in nature show striking similarities in their behavior near tipping points (bifurcations, phase transitions, sudden regime shifts) and associated extreme events. Such critical phenomena are frequently found in diverse fields such as climate, seismology, or financial markets. Notably, the observed similarities include a high degree of organization, persistent behavior, and accelerated energy release, which are common to (among others) phenomena related to geomagnetic variability of the terrestrial magnetosphere (intense magnetic storms), seismic activity (electromagnetic emissions prior to earthquakes), solar-terrestrial physics (solar flares), neurophysiology (epileptic seizures), and socioeconomic systems (stock market crashes). It is an open question whether the spatial and temporal complexity associated with extreme events arises from the system's structural organization (geometry) or from the chaotic behavior inherent to the nonlinear equations governing the dynamics of these phenomena. On the one hand, the presence of scaling laws associated with earthquakes and geomagnetic disturbances suggests understanding these events as generalized phase transitions similar to nucleation and critical phenomena in thermal and magnetic systems. On the other hand, because of the structural organization of the systems (e.g., as complex networks) the associated spatial geometry and/or topology of interactions plays a fundamental role in the emergence of extreme events. Here, a few aspects of the interplay between geometry and dynamics (critical phase transitions) that could result in the emergence of extreme events, which is an open problem, will be discussed.

  5. Energy Deposition in Magnetic Cloud and High Speed Stream Driven Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, E. J.; Turner, N. E.

    2004-12-01

    The solar wind couples a large amount of energy into the magnetosphere-ionosphere system; this energy is released in the form of geomagnetic storms. While the precise mechanism for this coupling and release is yet unclear, it is well established that different solar wind conditions create different responses within the magnetosphere-ionosphere system. We are examining the impact of high speed stream-driven and magnetic cloud-driven storms on the global redistribution of energy throughout the magnetosphere-ionosphere system. Data are used from ACE, WIND, and ground magnetometers. We estimate the energy input and output for multiple geomagnetic storms spanning from1995 to 1998. The comparison of storms reveals high speed stream-driven storms deposit less energy per second, but over longer durations. The comparison further reveals magnetic cloud-driven storms have deeper Dst* depressions but with shorter durations. Our results suggest magnetic cloud-driven storms with similar input parameters as high speed stream-driven storms produce an overall lower energy deposition.

  6. Assessment of Spatial Distribution and Submerged Scope for Storm Surge in the Pearl River Delta Region

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Kuo; LI Guo-sheng

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this study was to explore the spatial distribution and submerged scope for storm surge in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region.Based on the data of storm surges in the PRD region in the past 30 years, the return periods of 12 tide-gauge stations for storm surges were calculated separately with the methods of Gumbel and Pearson-iii.The data of another six tide-gauge stations in Guangdong Coast was quoted to depict the overall features of storm surges in Guangdong.Using least-square method, the spatial distribution models of storm surges in different retum periods were established to reveal the distribution rule of the set-up values of storm surges.The spatial distribution curves of storm surges in different retum periods in the PRD Region were drawn up based on the models and the terrain of Guangdong Coast.According to the curves, the extreme set-up values of storm surges in 1 000,100, 10 a return periods were determined on each spot of Guangdong Coast.Applying the spatial analysis technology of ArcGIS, with the topography data of the PRD Region, the submerged scopes of flood caused by storm surge in 1 000, 100, 10 a return periods were drawn up.The loss caused by storm surges was estimated.Results showed that the storm surges and the topography of PRD region jointly led to the serious flood in the PRD region.This assessment would be useful for the planning and design department to make decision and provide government scientific basis for storm surge prediction, coastal engineering designing and the prevention of storm surge disaster.

  7. Extreme Conditions Modeling Workshop Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coe, R. G.; Neary, V. S.; Lawson, M. J.; Yu, Y.; Weber, J.

    2014-07-01

    Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) hosted the Wave Energy Converter (WEC) Extreme Conditions Modeling (ECM) Workshop in Albuquerque, NM on May 13th-14th, 2014. The objective of the workshop was to review the current state of knowledge on how to model WECs in extreme conditions (e.g. hurricanes and other large storms) and to suggest how U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and national laboratory resources could be used to improve ECM methods for the benefit of the wave energy industry.

  8. Extreme Weather and Natural Disasters

    CERN Document Server

    Healey, Justin

    2012-01-01

    Australia is a vast land in which weather varies significantly in different parts of the continent. Recent extreme weather events in Australia, such as the Queensland floods and Victorian bushfires, are brutal reminders of nature's devastating power. Is global warming increasing the rate of natural disasters? What part do La Niña and El Niño play in the extreme weather cycle? Cyclones, floods, severe storms, bushfires, landslides, earthquakes, tsunamis - what are the natural and man-made causes of these phenomena, how predictable are they, and how prepared are we for the impacts of natural dis

  9. Extreme Heat

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Landslides & Debris Flow Nuclear Blast Nuclear Power Plants Power Outages Pandemic Radiological Dispersion Device Severe Weather Snowstorms & Extreme ... Landslides & Debris Flow Nuclear Blast Nuclear Power Plants Power Outages Pandemic Radiological Dispersion Device Severe Weather Snowstorms & Extreme ...

  10. Clouds and Dust Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-01-01

    [figure removed for brevity, see original site] Released 2 July 2004 The atmosphere of Mars is a dynamic system. Water-ice clouds, fog, and hazes can make imaging the surface from space difficult. Dust storms can grow from local disturbances to global sizes, through which imaging is impossible. Seasonal temperature changes are the usual drivers in cloud and dust storm development and growth. Eons of atmospheric dust storm activity has left its mark on the surface of Mars. Dust carried aloft by the wind has settled out on every available surface; sand dunes have been created and moved by centuries of wind; and the effect of continual sand-blasting has modified many regions of Mars, creating yardangs and other unusual surface forms. This image was acquired during mid-spring near the North Pole. The linear water-ice clouds are now regional in extent and often interact with neighboring cloud system, as seen in this image. The bottom of the image shows how the interaction can destroy the linear nature. While the surface is still visible through most of the clouds, there is evidence that dust is also starting to enter the atmosphere. Image information: VIS instrument. Latitude 68.4, Longitude 180 East (180 West). 38 meter/pixel resolution. Note: this THEMIS visual image has not been radiometrically nor geometrically calibrated for this preliminary release. An empirical correction has been performed to remove instrumental effects. A linear shift has been applied in the cross-track and down-track direction to approximate spacecraft and planetary motion. Fully calibrated and geometrically projected images will be released through the Planetary Data System in accordance with Project policies at a later time. NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory manages the 2001 Mars Odyssey mission for NASA's Office of Space Science, Washington, D.C. The Thermal Emission Imaging System (THEMIS) was developed by Arizona State University, Tempe, in collaboration with Raytheon Santa Barbara Remote

  11. Another giant solar explosion follows Tuesday's enormous solar flare

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-10-01

    The activity started on Tuesday with a giant solar flare - the second biggest ever seen by SOHO, the ESA-NASA solar observatory that maintains a constant watch on the Sun, monitoring these events as they happen. A few minutes later, spacecraft circling the Earth began to detect high levels of energetic radiation, capable of blinding satellites and causing increased radiation levels down to normal aircraft cruising altitudes. About 24 hours after the solar flare was observed, an accompanying coronal mass ejection - a giant cloud of magnetised plasma - reached the Earth, causing rapid changes in the Earth's magnetic field and what is known as a geomagnetic storm. This storm caused widespread disruption to communications; both satellite-based and HF radio. These events are truly sporadic and extremely difficult to predict. On Wednesday it appeared that radiation levels were decreasing. However, a second flare overnight has caused a further sharp increase in radiation levels. Here on Earth, the disruption continues today with a further coronal mass ejection expected to reach the Earth tomorrow in time for Halloween. Solar eruptions of this type together with the associated increased radiation levels and electromagnetic disturbances around the Earth have real immediate and long-term economic impacts. During the last few days, space weather related problems have been detected on spacecraft operated by a range of agencies across the globe and operations teams are on alert. On Earth, telecommunication links have been disrupted and steps have been taken to safeguard aircraft, which including some changes in scheduling. Effects have also been detected in high latitude power grids and are being carefully monitored. The increased dependency of our society on systems which are directly or indirectly influenced by solar and other events seen in space raises concerns about our ability to monitor and anticipate these events and the resulting changes collectively referred to as

  12. Magnetic storms on Mars

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vennerstrøm, Susanne

    2011-01-01

    Based on data from the Mars Global Surveyor magnetometer we examine periods of significantly enhanced magnetic disturbances in the martian space environment. Using almost seven years of observations during the maximum and early declining phase of the previous solar cycle the occurrence pattern...... and typical time profile of such periods is investigated and compared to solar wind measurements at Earth. Typical durations of the events are 20–40h, and there is a tendency for large events to last longer, but a large spread in duration and intensity are found. The large and medium intensity events at Mars...... field disturbance at Mars is solar wind dynamic pressure variations associated with the eccentricity of the martian orbit around the Sun....

  13. Mandelbrot's Extremism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beirlant, J.; Schoutens, W.; Segers, J.J.J.

    2004-01-01

    In the sixties Mandelbrot already showed that extreme price swings are more likely than some of us think or incorporate in our models.A modern toolbox for analyzing such rare events can be found in the field of extreme value theory.At the core of extreme value theory lies the modelling of maxima

  14. Positive and negative ionospheric responses to the March 2015 geomagnetic storm from BDS observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Shuanggen; Jin, Rui; Kutoglu, H.

    2017-06-01

    The most intense geomagnetic storm in solar cycle 24 occurred on March 17, 2015, and the detailed ionospheric storm morphologies are difficultly obtained from traditional observations. In this paper, the Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO) observations of BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS) are for the first time used to investigate the ionospheric responses to the geomagnetic storm. Using BDS GEO and GIMs TEC series, negative and positive responses to the March 2015 storm are found at local and global scales. During the main phase, positive ionospheric storm is the main response to the geomagnetic storm, while in the recovery phase, negative phases are pronounced at all latitudes. Maximum amplitudes of negative and positive phases appear in the afternoon and post-dusk sectors during both main and recovery phases. Furthermore, dual-peak positive phases in main phase and repeated negative phase during the recovery are found from BDS GEO observations. The geomagnetic latitudes corresponding to the maximum disturbances during the main and recovery phases show large differences, but they are quasi-symmetrical between southern and northern hemispheres. No clear zonal propagation of traveling ionospheric disturbances is detected in the GNSS TEC disturbances at high and low latitudes. The thermospheric composition variations could be the dominant source of the observed ionospheric storm effect from GUVI [O]/[N2] ratio data as well as storm-time electric fields. Our study demonstrates that the BDS (especially the GEO) observations are an important data source to observe ionospheric responses to the geomagnetic storm.

  15. Positive and negative ionospheric responses to the March 2015 geomagnetic storm from BDS observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Shuanggen; Jin, Rui; Kutoglu, H.

    2017-01-01

    The most intense geomagnetic storm in solar cycle 24 occurred on March 17, 2015, and the detailed ionospheric storm morphologies are difficultly obtained from traditional observations. In this paper, the Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO) observations of BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS) are for the first time used to investigate the ionospheric responses to the geomagnetic storm. Using BDS GEO and GIMs TEC series, negative and positive responses to the March 2015 storm are found at local and global scales. During the main phase, positive ionospheric storm is the main response to the geomagnetic storm, while in the recovery phase, negative phases are pronounced at all latitudes. Maximum amplitudes of negative and positive phases appear in the afternoon and post-dusk sectors during both main and recovery phases. Furthermore, dual-peak positive phases in main phase and repeated negative phase during the recovery are found from BDS GEO observations. The geomagnetic latitudes corresponding to the maximum disturbances during the main and recovery phases show large differences, but they are quasi-symmetrical between southern and northern hemispheres. No clear zonal propagation of traveling ionospheric disturbances is detected in the GNSS TEC disturbances at high and low latitudes. The thermospheric composition variations could be the dominant source of the observed ionospheric storm effect from GUVI [O]/[N2] ratio data as well as storm-time electric fields. Our study demonstrates that the BDS (especially the GEO) observations are an important data source to observe ionospheric responses to the geomagnetic storm.

  16. Geomagnetic storms, Forbush decreases of cosmic rays and total ozone at northern higher middle latitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laštovička, Jan; Križan, Peter

    2005-01-01

    Space weather affects the Earth's atmosphere in many ways and through various phenomena. Among them, geomagnetic storms and the variability of the galactic cosmic ray flux belong to the most important ones as for the lower atmosphere. Here, we summarize our previous results on the effects of strong geomagnetic storms and strong Forbush decreases of galactic cosmic rays on the total ozone at the northern higher middle latitudes, and complete them with investigations of effects of geomagnetic storms not accompanied by Forbush decreases. The effects of strong geomagnetic storms and Forbush decreases occur only in the winter part of the year, under the high solar activity and the E-phase of QBO (E-max) conditions. The effects of storms seem to be a redistribution of ozone as a consequence of storm-related changes of circulation. No event contradicts the idea that the Forbush decreases are responsible for effects of geomagnetic storms on the lower atmosphere (troposphere and lower stratosphere) including total ozone. However, under the E-max conditions in the winter part of the year, only several Forbush decreases without geomagnetic storms and only one geomagnetic storm without the Forbush decrease occurred over more than 20 years.

  17. Improved estimates of the European winter wind storm climate and the risk of reinsurance loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    Della-Marta, P. M.; Liniger, M. A.; Appenzeller, C.; Bresch, D. N.; Koellner-Heck, P.; Muccione, V.

    2009-04-01

    Current estimates of the European wind storm climate and their associated losses are often hampered by either relatively short, coarse resolution or inhomogeneous datasets. This study estimates the European wind storm climate using dynamical seasonal-to-decadal (s2d) climate forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The current s2d models' have limited predictive skill of European storminess, making the ensemble forecasts ergodic samples on which to build pseudo climates of 310 to 396 years in length. Extended winter (ONDJFMA) wind storm climatologies are created using a scalar extreme wind index considering only data above a high threshold. The method identifes between 2331 and 2471 wind storms using s2d data and 380 wind storms in ERA-40. Classical extreme value analysis (EVA) techniques are used to determine the wind storm climatologies. We suggest that the ERA-40 climatology, by virtue of its length, limiting form, and the fitting method, overestimates the return period (RP) of wind storms with RPs between 10-300 years and underestimates the return period of wind storms with RPs greater than 300 years. A 50 year event in ERA-40 is approximately a 33 year event using s2d. The largest influence on ERA-40 RP uncertainties is the sampling variability associated with only 45 seasons of storms. The climatologies are linked to the Swiss Reinsurance Company (Swiss Re) European wind storm loss model. New estimates of the risk of loss are compared with those from historical and stochastically generated wind storm fields used by Swiss Re. The resulting loss-frequency relationship matches well with the two independently modelled estimates and clearly demonstrates the added value by using alternative data and methods, as proposed in this study, to estimate the RP of high RP losses.

  18. Coronal Mass Ejections, Interplanetary Shocks In Relation With Forbush Decreases Associated With Intense Geomagnetic Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verma, P. L.; Patel, Nand Kumar; Prajapati, Mateswari

    2014-05-01

    Coronal mass ejections (CMEs} are the most energetic solar events in which large amount of solar plasma materials are ejected from the sun into heliosphere, causing major disturbances in solar wind plasma, Interplanetary shocks, Forbush decrease(Fds) in cosmic ray intensity and geomagnetic storms. We have studied Forbush decreases associated with intense geomagnetic storms observed at Oulu super neutron monitor, during the period of May 1998-Dec 2006 with coronal mass ejections (CMEs), X-ray solar flares and interplanetary shocks. We have found that all the (100%) Forbush decreases associated with intense geomagnetic storms are associated with halo and partial halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The association rate between halo and partial halo coronal mass ejections are found 96.00%and 04.00% respectively. Most of the Forbush decreases associated with intense geomagnetic storms (96.29%) are associated with X-ray solar flares of different categories . The association rates for X-Class, M-Class, and C- Class X -ray solar flares are found 34.62%, 50.00% and 15.38% respectively .Further we have concluded that majority of the Forbush decrease associated with intense geomagnetic storms are related to interplanetary shocks (92.30 %) and the related shocks are forward shocks. We have found positive co-relation with co-relation co-efficient .7025 between magnitudes of Forbush decreases associated with intense geomagnetic storms and speed of associated coronal mass ejections. Positive co-relation with co-relation co-efficient 0.48 has also been found between magnitudes of intense geomagnetic storms and speed of associated coronal mass ejections.

  19. Wind in the Solar System

    Science.gov (United States)

    McIntosh, Gordon

    2010-01-01

    As an astronomy instructor I am always looking for commonly experienced Earthly phenomena to help my students and me understand and appreciate similar occurrences elsewhere in the solar system. Recently I wrote short "TPT" articles on frost and precipitation. The present article is on winds in the solar system. A windy day or storm might…

  20. Wind in the Solar System

    Science.gov (United States)

    McIntosh, Gordon

    2010-01-01

    As an astronomy instructor I am always looking for commonly experienced Earthly phenomena to help my students and me understand and appreciate similar occurrences elsewhere in the solar system. Recently I wrote short "TPT" articles on frost and precipitation. The present article is on winds in the solar system. A windy day or storm might motivate…

  1. Wind in the Solar System

    Science.gov (United States)

    McIntosh, Gordon

    2010-01-01

    As an astronomy instructor I am always looking for commonly experienced Earthly phenomena to help my students and me understand and appreciate similar occurrences elsewhere in the solar system. Recently I wrote short "TPT" articles on frost and precipitation. The present article is on winds in the solar system. A windy day or storm might…

  2. Impact assessment of extreme storm events using a Bayesian network

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Den Heijer, C.; Knipping, D.T.J.A.; Plant, N.G.; Van Thiel de Vries, J.S.M.; Baart, F.; Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.

    2012-01-01

    This paper describes an investigation on the usefulness of Bayesian Networks in the safety assessment of dune coasts. A network has been created that predicts the erosion volume based on hydraulic boundary conditions and a number of cross-shore profile indicators. Field measurement data along a larg

  3. Extremely stable all solution processed organic tandem solar cells with TiO2/GO recombination layer under continuous light illumination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yusoff, Abd Rashid bin Mohd; Jose da Silva, Wilson; Kim, Hyeong Pil; Jang, Jin

    2013-11-21

    One approach to harvest a wide solar spectral solar energy is to stack two solar cells with different absorption characteristics in a tandem cell architecture. Herein, solution processed tandem solar cells, with highly transparent titanium oxide (TiO2) and graphene oxide (GO) as an efficient recombination layer, were designed, fabricated and characterized. We have adopted poly[(4,4'-bis(3-ethylhexyl)dithieno[3,2-b:''3'-d]silole)-2,6-diyl-alt-(2,5-(3-(2-ethylhexyl)thiophen-2-yl)thiazolo[5,4-d]thiazole]:indene-C60 bisadduct (PSEHTT:ICBA) and poly[(4,4'-bis(2-ethylhexyl)dithieno[3,2-b:2',3'-d]silole)-2,6-diyl-alt-(2,1,3-benzothiadiazole)-4,7-diyl]:[6,6]-phenyl-C70 butyric acid methyl ester (PSBTBT:PC70BM) as the active layers for the front and rear cells, respectively. The TiO2/GO serves as an electron and hole collecting and recombination layer. The tandem solar cells showed a high open circuit voltage (VOC) 1.62 V, a moderate short circuit current density (JSC) 8.23 mA cm(-2), fill factor (FF) 62.98%, leading to the power conversion efficiency of 8.40%. The obtained VOC value of tandem solar cells is ideal for the summation of VOCs attained from front and rear cells and it is evident that our tandem solar cells are well connected in series. Moreover, this tandem cell exhibits a 20% drop in conversion efficiency under continuous AM illumination for 2880 h.

  4. Ionospheric redistribution during geomagnetic storms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Immel, T J; Mannucci, A J

    2013-12-01

    [1]The abundance of plasma in the daytime ionosphere is often seen to grow greatly during geomagnetic storms. Recent reports suggest that the magnitude of the plasma density enhancement depends on the UT of storm onset. This possibility is investigated over a 7year period using global maps of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) produced at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The analysis confirms that the American sector exhibits, on average, larger storm time enhancement in ionospheric plasma content, up to 50% in the afternoon middle-latitude region and 30% in the vicinity of the high-latitude auroral cusp, with largest effect in the Southern Hemisphere. We investigate whether this effect is related to the magnitude of the causative magnetic storms. Using the same advanced Dst index employed to sort the TEC maps into quiet and active (Dststorm strength that corresponds closely to the TEC variation but follows it by 3-6h. For this and other reasons detailed in this report, we conclude that the UT-dependent peak in storm time TEC is likely not related to the magnitude of external storm time forcing but more likely attributable to phenomena such as the low magnetic field in the South American region. The large Dst variation suggests a possible system-level effect of the observed variation in ionospheric storm response on the measured strength of the terrestrial ring current, possibly connected through UT-dependent modulation of ion outflow.

  5. An investigation into the correlation of geomagnetic storms with tropospheric parameters over the South Pole

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. M. Lam

    Full Text Available We test the proposal that the Sun’s magnetic activity, communicated via the solar wind, provides a link between solar variability and the Earth’s climate in the Antarctic troposphere. The strength of a geomagnetic storm is one indicator of the state of the solar wind; therefore, we use the dates of 51 moderate to strong winter geomagnetic storms from the period 1961–1990 to conduct a series of superposed epoch analyses of the winter South Pole isobaric height and temperature, at pressures of between 100–500 mbar. Using Student’s t -test to compare the mean value of the pre- and post-storm data sets, we find no evidence to support the hypothesis that there is a statistically-significant correlation between the onset of a geomagnetic storm and changes in the isobaric temperature or height of the troposphere and lower stratosphere over the South Pole during winter months. This concurs with a similar study of the variability of the troposphere and lower stratosphere over the South Pole (Lam and Rodger, 2002 which uses drops in the level of observed galactic cosmic ray intensity, known as Forbush decreases, as a proxy for solar magnetic activity instead of geomagnetic storms.

    Key words. Interplanetary physics (solar wind plasma; cosmic rays – Atmospheric composition and structure (pressure, density and temperature

  6. Phosphorus Dynamics along River Continuum during Typhoon Storm Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Fai Chow

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Information on riverine phosphorus (P dynamics during typhoon storm events remains scarce in subtropical regions. Thus, this study investigates the spatial and temporal dynamics of riverine phosphorus in a headwater catchment during three typhoon events. Continuous sampling (3 h intervals of stormwater samples and discharge data were conducted at five locations, which represent the upstream, transitional zone, and downstream areas of the main inflow river. The results revealed that the average event mean concentrations (EMCs for total dissolved phosphorus (TDP and particulate phosphorus (PP in the upstream catchment of Fei-Tsui reservoir were 15.66 μg/L and 11.94 μg/L, respectively. There was at least a 1.3-fold increase in flow-weighted concentrations of TDP and PP from the upper to lower reaches of the main stream. PP and TDP were transported either in clockwise or anticlockwise directions, depending on storm intensity and source. The transport of TDP was primarily regulated by the subsurface flow during the storm event. Soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP contributes more than 50% of the TDP load in moderate storms, while extreme storms supply a greater dissolved organic phosphorus (DOP load into the stream. TDP accounted for approximately 50% of TP load during typhoon storms. Mobilization of all P forms was observed from upstream to downstream of the river, except for DOP. A decrease of DOP load on passing downstream may reflect the change in phosphorus form along the river continuum. Peak discharge and antecedent dry days are correlated positively with P fluxes, indicating that river bank erosion and re-suspension of within-channel sediment are the dominant pathways of P during typhoon storm periods.

  7. Dust Storms: Why Are Dust Storms a Concern?

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Radon Solvents Styrene Sulfur Dioxide Toluene Uranium Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) For Educators Introduction Tox Town-Based Curriculum Units / Science Club Careers in Environmental Health, Chemistry, and Toxicology More Resources Dust Storms en español ...

  8. A Brown Mesoporous TiO2-x /MCF Composite with an Extremely High Quantum Yield of Solar Energy Photocatalysis for H2 Evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xing, Mingyang; Zhang, Jinlong; Qiu, Bocheng; Tian, Baozhu; Anpo, Masakazu; Che, Michel

    2015-04-24

    A brown mesoporous TiO2-x /MCF composite with a high fluorine dopant concentration (8.01 at%) is synthesized by a vacuum activation method. It exhibits an excellent solar absorption and a record-breaking quantum yield (Φ = 46%) and a high photon-hydrogen energy conversion efficiency (η = 34%,) for solar photocatalytic H2 production, which are all higher than that of the black hydrogen-doped TiO2 (Φ = 35%, η = 24%). The MCFs serve to improve the adsorption of F atoms onto the TiO2 /MCF composite surface, which after the formation of oxygen vacancies by vacuum activation, facilitate the abundant substitution of these vacancies with F atoms. The decrease of recombination sites induced by high-concentration F doping and the synergistic effect between lattice Ti(3+)-F and surface Ti(3+)-F are responsible for the enhanced lifetime of electrons, the observed excellent absorption of solar light, and the photocatalytic production of H2 for these catalysts. The as-prepared F-doped composite is an ideal solar light-driven photocatalyst with great potential for applications ranging from the remediation of environmental pollution to the harnessing of solar energy for H2 production.

  9. Clustering of European winter storms: A multi-model perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renggli, Dominik; Buettner, Annemarie; Scherb, Anke; Straub, Daniel; Zimmerli, Peter

    2016-04-01

    and moderate events, and not by extreme storms. Thus, the decision which climate model to use to quantify clustering can have a substantial impact on the risk assessment in the (re)insurance business.

  10. Solar Eclipse, STEREO Style

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-01-01

    There was a transit of the Moon across the face of the Sun - but it could not be seen from Earth. This sight was visible only from the STEREO-B spacecraft in its orbit about the sun, trailing behind the Earth. NASA's STEREO mission consists of two spacecraft launched in October, 2006 to study solar storms. The transit starts at 1:56 am EST and continued for 12 hours until 1:57 pm EST. STEREO-B is currently about 1 million miles from the Earth, 4.4 times farther away from the Moon than we are on Earth. As the result, the Moon will appear 4.4 times smaller than what we are used to. This is still, however, much larger than, say, the planet Venus appeared when it transited the Sun as seen from Earth in 2004. This alignment of STEREO-B and the Moon is not just due to luck. It was arranged with a small tweak to STEREO-B's orbit last December. The transit is quite useful to STEREO scientists for measuring the focus and the amount of scattered light in the STEREO imagers and for determining the pointing of the STEREO coronagraphs. The Sun as it appears in these the images and each frame of the movie is a composite of nearly simultaneous images in four different wavelengths of extreme ultraviolet light that were separated into color channels and then recombined with some level of transparency for each.

  11. Solar Eclipse, STEREO Style

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-01-01

    There was a transit of the Moon across the face of the Sun - but it could not be seen from Earth. This sight was visible only from the STEREO-B spacecraft in its orbit about the sun, trailing behind the Earth. NASA's STEREO mission consists of two spacecraft launched in October, 2006 to study solar storms. The transit starts at 1:56 am EST and continued for 12 hours until 1:57 pm EST. STEREO-B is currently about 1 million miles from the Earth, 4.4 times farther away from the Moon than we are on Earth. As the result, the Moon will appear 4.4 times smaller than what we are used to. This is still, however, much larger than, say, the planet Venus appeared when it transited the Sun as seen from Earth in 2004. This alignment of STEREO-B and the Moon is not just due to luck. It was arranged with a small tweak to STEREO-B's orbit last December. The transit is quite useful to STEREO scientists for measuring the focus and the amount of scattered light in the STEREO imagers and for determining the pointing of the STEREO coronagraphs. The Sun as it appears in these the images and each frame of the movie is a composite of nearly simultaneous images in four different wavelengths of extreme ultraviolet light that were separated into color channels and then recombined with some level of transparency for each.

  12. Structure and evolution of flash flood producing storms in a small urban watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Long; Smith, James; Baeck, Mary Lynn; Smith, Brianne; Tian, Fuqiang; Niyogi, Dev

    2016-04-01

    The objective of this study is to examine the structure and evolution of storms that produce flash floods in "small" urban watersheds. The study site is Harry's Brook, a 1.1 km2 urban watershed in Princeton, New Jersey. A catalog of 15 storms is developed for Harry's Brook based on paired observations of streamflow and rainfall. Lagrangian analyses of storm properties are based on storm tracking procedures utilizing 3-D radar reflectivity observations from the KDIX (Fort Dix, New Jersey) Weather Surveillance Radar, 1988 Doppler. Analyses focus on the storm elements that were responsible for the peak rainfall rates over the watershed. The 22 July 2006 storm, which produced the record flood peak in the catalog (a unit discharge of 26.8 m3 s-1 km-2) was characterized by thunderstorm cells that produced more than 50 cloud-to-ground lightning strikes and "collapsed" over Harry's Brook. The 3 June 2006 storm, which produced the third largest flood peak (a unit discharge of 11.1 m3 s-1 km-2), was a "low-echo centroid" storm with no lightning. We use cloud-to-ground flash rate, echo top height, maximum reflectivity, and height of maximum reflectivity as key variables for characterizing convective intensity. Storm motion is examined through a time series of storm speed and direction. The 22 July 2006 and 3 June 2006 storms provide end-members of storm properties, centering on "convective intensity," which are associated with flash flooding in small urban watersheds. Extreme 1-15 min rainfall rates are produced by warm season convective systems at both ends of the convective intensity spectrum.

  13. Simulation of Theoretical Most-Extreme Geomagnetic Sudden Commencements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welling, Daniel; Love, Jeffrey; Wiltberger, Michael; Rigler, Erin; Gombosi, Tamas

    2016-04-01

    We report results from a numerical simulation of geomagnetic sudden commencements driven by solar wind conditions given by theoretical-limit extreme coronal-mass ejections (CMEs) estimated by Tsurutani and Lakhina [2014]. The CME characteristics at Earth are a step function that jumps from typical quiet values to 2700 km/s flow speed and a magnetic field magnitude of 127 nT. These values are used to drive three coupled models: a global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) magnetospheric model (BATS-R-US), a ring current model (the Rice Convection Model, RCM), and a height-integrated ionospheric electrodynamics model (the Ridley Ionosphere Model, RIM), all coupled together using the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF). Additionally, simulations from the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry MHD model are performed for comparison. The commencement is simulated with both purely northward and southward IMF orientations. Low-latitude ground-level geomagnetic variations, both B and dB/dt, are estimated in response to the storm sudden commencement. For a northward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) storm, the combined models predict a maximum sudden commencement response, Dst-equivalent of +200 nT and a maximum local dB/dt of ~200nT/s. While this positive Dst response is driven mainly by magnetopause currents, complicated and dynamic Birkeland current patterns also develop, which drive the strong dB/dt responses at high latitude. For southward IMF conditions, erosion of dayside magnetic flux allows magnetopause currents to approach much closer to the Earth, leading to a stronger terrestrial response (Dst-equivalent of +250 nT). Further, high latitude signals from Region 1 Birkeland currents move to lower latitudes during the southward IMF case, increasing the risk to populated areas around the globe. Results inform fundamental understanding of solar-terrestrial interaction and benchmark estimates for induction hazards of interest to the electric-power grid industry.

  14. Time series analysis of diverse extreme phenomena: universal features

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eftaxias, K.; Balasis, G.

    2012-04-01

    The field of study of complex systems holds that the dynamics of complex systems are founded on universal principles that may used to describe a great variety of scientific and technological approaches of different types of natural, artificial, and social systems. We suggest that earthquake, epileptic seizures, solar flares, and magnetic storms dynamics can be analyzed within similar mathematical frameworks. A central property of aforementioned extreme events generation is the occurrence of coherent large-scale collective behavior with very rich structure, resulting from repeated nonlinear interactions among the corresponding constituents. Consequently, we apply the Tsallis nonextensive statistical mechanics as it proves an appropriate framework in order to investigate universal principles of their generation. First, we examine the data in terms of Tsallis entropy aiming to discover common "pathological" symptoms of transition to a significant shock. By monitoring the temporal evolution of the degree of organization in time series we observe similar distinctive features revealing significant reduction of complexity during their emergence. Second, a model for earthquake dynamics coming from a nonextensive Tsallis formalism, starting from first principles, has been recently introduced. This approach leads to an energy distribution function (Gutenberg-Richter type law) for the magnitude distribution of earthquakes, providing an excellent fit to seismicities generated in various large geographic areas usually identified as seismic regions. We show that this function is able to describe the energy distribution (with similar non-extensive q-parameter) of solar flares, magnetic storms, epileptic and earthquake shocks. The above mentioned evidence of a universal statistical behavior suggests the possibility of a common approach for studying space weather, earthquakes and epileptic seizures.

  15. AMPTE/CCE observations of the plasma composition below 17 keV during the September 4, 1984 magnetic storm

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shelley, E.G.; Klumpar, D.M.; Peterson, W.K.; Ghielmetti, A.; Balsiger, H.; Geiss, J.; Rosenbauer, H.

    1985-05-01

    Observations from the Hot Plasma Composition Experiment on the AMPTE/CCE spacecraft during the magnetic storm of 4-5 September 1984 reveal that significant injection of ions of terrestrial origin accompanied the storm development. The compression of the magnetosphere at storm sudden commencement carried the magnetopause inside the CCE orbit clearly revealing the shocked solar wind plasma. A build up of suprathermal ions is observed near the plasmapause during the storm main phase and recovery phase. Pitch angle distributions in the ring current during the main phase show differences between H(+) and O(+) that suggest mass dependent injection, transport and/or loss processes. 9 references.

  16. AMPTE/CCE observations of the plasma composition below 17 keV during the September 4, 1984 magnetic storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shelley, E. G.; Klumpar, D. M.; Peterson, W. K.; Ghielmetti, A.; Balsiger, H.; Geiss, J.; Rosenbauer, H.

    1985-05-01

    Observations from the Hot Plasma Composition Experiment on the AMPTE/CCE spacecraft during the magnetic storm of 4-5 September 1984 reveal that significant injection of ions of terrestrial origin accompanied the storm development. The compression of the magnetosphere at storm sudden commencement carried the magnetopause inside the CCE orbit clearly revealing the shocked solar wind plasma. A build up of suprathermal ions is observed near the plasmapause during the storm main phase and recovery phase. Pitch angle distributions in the ring current during the main phase show differences between H(+) and O(+) that suggest mass dependent injection, transport and/or loss processes.

  17. Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections Resulting from Earth-Directed CMEs Using SOHO and ACE Combined Data During Solar Cycle 23

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paouris, Evangelos; Mavromichalaki, Helen

    2017-02-01

    In this work a total of 266 interplanetary coronal mass ejections observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/ Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (SOHO/LASCO) and then studied by in situ observations from Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft, are presented in a new catalog for the time interval 1996 - 2009 covering Solar Cycle 23. Specifically, we determine the characteristics of the CME which is responsible for the upcoming ICME and the associated solar flare, the initial/background solar wind plasma and magnetic field conditions before the arrival of the CME, the conditions in the sheath of the ICME, the main part of the ICME, the geomagnetic conditions of the ICME's impact at Earth and finally we remark on the visual examination for each event. Interesting results revealed from this study include the high correlation coefficient values of the magnetic field Bz component against the Ap index (r = 0.84), as well as against the Dst index (r = 0.80) and of the effective acceleration against the CME linear speed (r = 0.98). We also identify a north-south asymmetry for X-class solar flares and an east-west asymmetry for CMEs associated with strong solar flares (magnitude ≥ M1.0) which finally triggered intense geomagnetic storms (with Ap ≥179). The majority of the geomagnetic storms are determined to be due to the ICME main part and not to the extreme conditions which dominate inside the sheath. For the intense geomagnetic storms the maximum value of the Ap index is observed almost 4 hours before the minimum Dst index. The amount of information makes this new catalog the most comprehensive ICME catalog for Solar Cycle 23.

  18. Characteristics of Meteorological Factors over Different Landscape Types During Dust Storm Events in Cele, Xinjiang, China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    毛东雷; 雷加强; 李生宇; 曾凡江; 王翠; 周杰

    2014-01-01

    Landscape characteristics influence meteorological factors, thus affect the occurrence and nature of dust storm events. The present study investigates the spatiotemporal characteristics of six meteorological factors (wind velocity, wind direction, air temperature, relative humidity (RH), photo synthetically active radiation (PAR), and solar radiation) over different landscape types (shifting-sand frontier, semi-fixed sandy land, fixed sandy land, and the inner region of an oasis) before and after dust storms during four typical dust storm events in an oasis-desert ecotone in Cele, Xinjiang, China. The results show that the average wind velocity decreased significantly from the shifting-sand frontier to the inner oasis, which was mainly attributable to the vegetation coverage. Before the dust storm events, there were obvious differences in air temperature and RH either in the horizontal or vertical direction over the different landscape types. However, these factors were very similar during and following the dust storm events. PAR and solar radiation were significantly reduced during the dust storm events and the subsequent sand-blowing and floating-dust conditions. This effect was much stronger than during similar weather conditions without dust storm events such as sand-blowing and overcast and/or rainy days. Additionally, the variation in the meteorological factors among the different landscapes was also affected by the prevailing wind direction during the dust storm events. However, the landscape type slightly changed the prevailing wind direction, with the greatest dispersion distribution of wind direction in the inner oasis. The findings of this study are helpful for understanding the function of landscape types in the occurrence of dust storms, as well as for providing a theoretical basis for prevention of dust storms.

  19. US Weather Bureau Storm Reports

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Bureau and US Army Corps and other reports of storms from 1886-1955. Hourly precipitation from recording rain gauges captured during heavy rain, snow,...

  20. Storm Water Management Model (SWMM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA's Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is used throughout the world for planning, analysis and design related to stormwater runoff, combined and sanitary sewers, and other drainage systems in urban areas.

  1. PRELIMINARY STUDY ON SAND—DUST STORM DISASTER AND COUNTERMEASURES IN CHINA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANGQing-yang; ZHAOXi-you; 等

    2002-01-01

    As a kind of natural disasters,sand-dust storms frequently occur in deserts and their surrounding areas.The occurrence of this disaster in Chinaˊs north west and north china has exerted an extremely adverse effect upon the environ-ment in China.The management of sand-dust storms is of a systematic project closely related with the environment such as agriculture,ecosystem,forestry,water conservancy,meteorology and other aspects.Therefore,studies of the forma-tion,the basic eatures,causes,temporal-spatial distribution,developing-trend and related disasters of sand-dust storms in China are conducted based on satellite data.The experience of sand-dust storms control and countermeasures in the Unit-ed States and some other countries are referred.Meanwhile,preliminary countermeasures relating to sand-dust storms in China are proposed.

  2. Coral-gravel storm ridges: examples from the tropical Pacific and Caribbean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richmond, Bruce M.; Morton, Robert A.

    2007-01-01

    Extreme storms in reef environments have long been recognized as a mechanism for depositing ridges of reef-derived coarse clastic sediment. This study revisits the storm ridges formed by Tropical Cyclone Bebe on Funafuti, Tuvalu and Tropical Cyclone Ofa on Upolu, Western Samoa in the South Pacific, and Hurricane Lenny on Bonaire, Netherlands Antilles in the Caribbean. Ridge characteristics produced by these storms include: heights of 1–4 m, widths of 8–50 m, and lengths up to 18 km. The ridges tend to be higher and steeper on their landward margins than on their seaward margins and are composed mostly of re-worked coral rubble derived from reef front settings with smaller amounts of fresh broken coral (5–30%). Characteristics of these modern gravel storm ridges can be used to help identify ancient storm deposits and to differentiate between other coarse-grained deposits such as those created by tsunamis.

  3. Dynamics of Saturn's great storm of 2010-2011 from Cassini ISS and RPWS

    CERN Document Server

    Sayanagi, Kunio M; Ewald, Shawn P; Fischer, Georg; Ingersoll, Andrew P; Kurth, William S; Muro, Gabriel D; Porco, Carolyn C; West, Robert A

    2016-01-01

    Saturn's quasi-periodic planet-encircling storms are the largest convecting outbursts in the Solar System. The last eruption was in 1990. A new eruption started in December 2010 and presented the first-ever opportunity to observe such episodic storms from a spacecraft in orbit around Saturn. Here, we analyze images acquired with the Cassini Imaging Science Subsystem (ISS), which captured the storm's birth, evolution and demise. In studying the end of the convective activity, we also analyze the Saturn Electrostatic Discharge (SED) signals detected by the Radio and Plasma Wave Science (RPWS) instrument. [...

  4. Thermal and Optical Properties of Low-E Storm Windows and Panels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Culp, Thomas D. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Widder, Sarah H. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Cort, Katherine A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-07-17

    Installing low-emissivity (low-E) storm windows and panels over existing windows has been identified as a cost-effective new approach for improving the energy efficiency of existing buildings where window replacement is impractical or too expensive. As such, it is desirable to characterize the key energy performance properties of low-E storm windows and panels when installed over different types of existing primary windows. this paper presents the representative U-factors, solar heat gain coefficients (SGHCs) and visible transmittance properties of the combined assemblies of various storm windows and panel types installed over different primary windows.

  5. Magnetic storms and induction hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, Jeffrey J.; Rigler, E. Joshua; Pulkkinen, Antti; Balch, Christopher

    2014-01-01

    Magnetic storms are potentially hazardous to the activities and technological infrastructure of modern civilization. This reality was dramatically demonstrated during the great magnetic storm of March 1989, when surface geoelectric fields, produced by the interaction of the time-varying geomagnetic field with the Earth's electrically conducting interior, coupled onto the overlying Hydro-Québec electric power grid in Canada. Protective relays were tripped, the grid collapsed, and about 9 million people were temporarily left without electricity [Bolduc, 2002].

  6. Predicting and Mitigating Socioeconomic Impacts of Extreme Space Weather: Benefits of Improved Forecasts (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanekal, S. G.; Baker, D. N.

    2013-12-01

    Vulnerability of society to severe space weather is an issue of increasing worldwide concern. A notable example is that electric power networks connecting widely separated geographic areas may incur debilitating damage induced by geomagnetic storms. The conclusion of a recent National Research Council report was that harsh space weather events can cause tens of millions to many billions of dollars of damage to space and ground-based assets during major solar storms. The most extreme events could cause months-long power outages and could cost in excess of one trillion dollars. In this presentation, we discuss broad socioeconomic impacts of space weather and also discuss the immense potential benefits of improved space weather forecasts. Such forecasts would be based on continuous observations of disturbances on the Sun and would take advantage of our increased understanding of the Earth's space environmental conditions and the causative solar drivers. We consider scenarios of how such observation-based forecasts could be used most effectively by policy makers and technology management officials.

  7. Modeling storm waves; Modeliser les houles de tempete

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benoit, M.; Marcos, F.; Teisson, Ch

    1999-07-01

    Nuclear power stations located on the coast take the water they use to cool their circuits from the sea. The water intake and discharge devices must be able to operate in all weathers, notably during extreme storms, with waves 10 m high and over. To predict the impact of the waves on the equipment, they are modeled digitally from the moment they form in the middle of the ocean right up to the moment they break on the shore. (authors)

  8. Geomagnetic Storms and Acute Myocardial Infarctions Morbidity in Middle Latitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dimitrova, S.; Babayev, E. S.; Mustafa, F. R.; Stoilova, I.; Taseva, T.; Georgieva, K.

    2009-12-01

    Results of collaborative studies on revealing a possible relationship between solar activity (SA) and geomagnetic activity (GMA) and pre-hospital acute myocardial infarction (AMI) morbidity are presented. Studies were based on medical data from Bulgaria and Azerbaijan. Bulgarian data, covering the period from 01.12.1995 to 31.12.2004, concerned daily distribution of number of patients with AMI diagnose (in total 1192 cases) from Sofia Region on the day of admission at the hospital. Azerbaijani data contained 4479 pre-hospital AMI incidence cases for the period 01.01.2003-31.12.2005 and were collected from 21 emergency and first medical aid stations in Grand Baku Area (including Absheron Economical Region with several millions of inhabitants). Data were "cleaned" as much as possible from social and other factors and were subjected to medical and mathematical/statistical analysis. Medical analysis showed reliability of the used data. Method of ANalysis Of VAriance (ANOVA) was applied to check the significance of GMA intensity effect and the type of geomagnetic storms - those caused by magnetic clouds (MC) and by high speed solar wind streams (HSSWS) - on AMI incidences. Relevant correlation coefficients were calculated. Results were outlined for both considered data. Results obtained for the Sofia data showed statistically significant positive correlation between considered GMA indices and AMI occurrence. ANOVA revealed that AMI incidence number was significantly increased from the day before till the day after geomagnetic storms with different intensities. Geomagnetic storms caused by MC were related to significant increase of AMI number in comparison with the storms caused by HSSWS. There was a trend for such different effects even on -1st and +1st day for the period 1995-2004. Results obtained for the Baku data revealed trends similar to those obtained for Sofia data. AMI morbidity increment was observed on the days with higher GMA intensity and after these days

  9. Assessing storm events for energy meteorology: using media and scientific reports to track a North Sea autumn storm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kettle, Anthony

    2016-04-01

    Important issues for energy meteorology are to assess meteorological conditions for normal operating conditions and extreme events for the ultimate limit state of engineering structures. For the offshore environment in northwest Europe, energy meteorology encompasses weather conditions relevant for petroleum production infrastructure and also the new field of offshore wind energy production. Autumn and winter storms are an important issue for offshore operations in the North Sea. The weather in this region is considered as challenging for extreme meteorological events as the Gulf of Mexico with its attendant hurricane risk. The rise of the Internet and proliferation of digital recording devices has placed a much greater amount of information in the public domain than was available to national meteorological agencies even 20 years ago. This contribution looks at reports of meteorology and infrastructure damage from a storm in the autumn of 2006 to trace the spatial and temporal record of meteorological events. Media reports give key information to assess the events of the storm. The storm passed over northern Europe between Oct.31-Nov. 2, 2006, and press reports from the time indicate that its most important feature was a high surge that inundated coastal areas. Sections of the Dutch and German North Sea coast were affected, and there was record flooding in Denmark and East Germany in the southern Baltic Sea. Extreme wind gusts were also reported that were strong enough to damage roofs and trees, and there was even tornado recorded near the Dutch-German border. Offshore, there were a series of damage reports from ship and platforms that were linked with sea state, and reports of rogue waves were explicitly mentioned. Many regional government authorities published summaries of geophysical information related to the storm, and these form part of a regular series of online winter storm reports that started as a public service about 15 years ago. Depending on the

  10. Influence of the interplanetary driver type on the durations of main and recovery phases of magnetic storms

    CERN Document Server

    Yermolaev, Yu I; Nikolaeva, N S; Yermolaev, M Yu

    2013-01-01

    We study durations of main and recovery phases of magnetic storms induced by different types of large-scale solar-wind streams (Sheath, magnetic cloud (MC), Ejecta and CIR) on the basis of OMNI data base during 1976-2000. Durations of both main and recovery phases depend on types of interplanetary drivers. On the average, duration of main phase of storms induced by compressed regions (CIR and Sheath) is shorter than by MC and Ejecta while duration of recovery phase of CIR- and Sheath-induced storms is longer. Analysis of durations of individual storms shows that durations of main and recovery phases anti-correlate for CIR- and Sheath-induced storms and there is not dependence between them for (MC+Ejecta)-induced storms.

  11. Understanding the impact of extra-tropical storms from CORDEX projections over the Scandinavian coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldore, Vidyunmala; Luna, Byron Quan

    2017-04-01

    Response of extra-tropical storms to climate change over the Scandinavian coast in high resolution regional climate projection is investigated in the current study. The complex interactions between North Atlantic oscillation, arctic amplification, ocean-atmospheric interactions and changing nature of synoptic waves will affect the generation and extremity of storm types. The nature of these storms is dependent on large-scale systems over this region, and hence higher resolution climate models might be able to represent the structure and intensity of the storms with accuracy. We propose a tracking algorithm for two seasons autumn (September-October-November) and winter season (December-January-February) providing features to detect the frequency and intensity of storm types for a given coast. Our objective is to understand the impact of changing nature of extreme storm types over the Scandinavian coast. Using a spatial assessment, possible impacts due to future storms in RCP8.5 scenario are assessed and hazard levels are represented.

  12. USING SATELLITE OBSERVATION FOR EARLY WARNING OF CONVECTIVE STORM IN TEHRAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E.