WorldWideScience

Sample records for extreme solar events

  1. Solar extreme events

    CERN Document Server

    Hudson, Hugh S

    2015-01-01

    Solar flares and CMEs have a broad range of magnitudes. This review discusses the possibility of "extreme events," defined as those with magnitudes greater than have been seen in the existing historical record. For most quantitative measures, this direct information does not extend more than a century and a half into the recent past. The magnitude distributions (occurrence frequencies) of solar events (flares/CMEs) typically decrease with the parameter measured or inferred (peak flux, mass, energy etc. Flare radiation fluxes tend to follow a power law slightly flatter than $S^{-2}$, where S represents a peak flux; solar particle events (SPEs) follow a still flatter power law up to a limiting magnitude, and then appear to roll over to a steeper distribution, which may take an exponential form or follow a broken power law. This inference comes from the terrestrial $^{14}$C record and from the depth dependence of various radioisotope proxies in the lunar regolith and in meteorites. Recently major new observation...

  2. The Relation between Extreme Weather Events and the Solar Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battinelli, P.; di Fazio, A.; Torelli, M.

    The oscillating part of the solar irradiance drives the cyclic component of the variations of the terrestrial atmosphere's thermodynamic state. In particular, the average temperature, and thus the turbulent atmospheric fuxes, are influenced. Reliable temperature data exist from ~220,000 years, while accurate solar irradiance space measurements (not affected by the atmosphere's absorption) are available only since 1979. Actually, there is a rather long data-set regarding solar activity, indicated by the Wolf number, which is found to be well correlated with the total solar flux. Thus, we use the Wolf number as a quantitative proxy of the incident flux, even in the interval before the space-based measurements. The fraction of solar energy trapped in the atmosphere due to the re-absorption of the infrared radiation by the greenhouse gases is an increasing function of time (in the latter 150-160 years). Over this interval, we spectrally analyzed the time series of both the Wolf number and the frequencies of extreme meteorological events, isolating and removing in the latter the cyclic components due to the periodic part of the radiative forcing exherted by the Sun. We were thus able to determine the time trend in the data regarding the observed frequencies of the U.S. continental tornadoes (National Center for Atmospheric Research) and of the global cyclones (hurricanes and tropical storms on all ocean basins, National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration). We find, for both the data sets an exponential behaviour, with e-folding times: for the cyclones tau ~= 110 years, and for the tornadoes tau ~= 70 years. We are happy to have given --through this work-- a contribution to the interdisciplinary scientific process coordinated by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) through the ICSU (International Council of Scientific Unions) which takes place a latere of the international negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

  3. Solar Energetic Particle Event Associated with the 2012 July 23 Extreme Solar Storm

    CERN Document Server

    Zhu, Bei; Luhmann, Janet G; Hu, Huidong; Wang, Rui; Yang, Zhongwei

    2016-01-01

    We study the solar energetic particle (SEP) event associated with the 2012 July 23 extreme solar storm, for which STEREO and the spacecraft at L1 provide multi-point remote sensing and in situ observations. The extreme solar storm, with a superfast shock and extremely enhanced ejecta magnetic fields observed near 1 AU at STEREO A, was caused by the combination of successive coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Meanwhile, energetic particles were observed by STEREO and near-Earth spacecraft such as ACE and SOHO, suggestive of a wide longitudinal spread of the particles at 1 AU. Combining the SEP observations with in situ plasma and magnetic field measurements we investigate the longitudinal distribution of the SEP event in connection with the associated shock and CMEs. Our results underscore the complex magnetic configuration of the inner heliosphere formed by solar eruptions. The examinations of particle intensities, proton anisotropy distributions, element abundance ratios, magnetic connectivity and spectra also g...

  4. The magnitude and effects of extreme solar particle events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiggens Piers

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The solar energetic particle (SEP radiation environment is an important consideration for spacecraft design, spacecraft mission planning and human spaceflight. Herein is presented an investigation into the likely severity of effects of a very large Solar Particle Event (SPE on technology and humans in space. Fluences for SPEs derived using statistical models are compared to historical SPEs to verify their appropriateness for use in the analysis which follows. By combining environment tools with tools to model effects behind varying layers of spacecraft shielding it is possible to predict what impact a large SPE would be likely to have on a spacecraft in Near-Earth interplanetary space or geostationary Earth orbit. Also presented is a comparison of results generated using the traditional method of inputting the environment spectra, determined using a statistical model, into effects tools and a new method developed as part of the ESA SEPEM Project allowing for the creation of an effect time series on which statistics, previously applied to the flux data, can be run directly. The SPE environment spectra is determined and presented as energy integrated proton fluence (cm−2 as a function of particle energy (in MeV. This is input into the SHIELDOSE-2, MULASSIS, NIEL, GRAS and SEU effects tools to provide the output results. In the case of the new method for analysis, the flux time series is fed directly into the MULASSIS and GEMAT tools integrated into the SEPEM system. The output effect quantities include total ionising dose (in rads, non-ionising energy loss (MeV g−1, single event upsets (upsets/bit and the dose in humans compared to established limits for stochastic (or cancer-causing effects and tissue reactions (such as acute radiation sickness in humans given in grey-equivalent and sieverts respectively.

  5. Estimating the frequency of extremely energetic solar events, based on solar, stellar, lunar, and terrestrial records

    CERN Document Server

    Schrijver, C J; Baltensperger, U; Cliver, E W; Guedel, M; Hudson, H S; McCracken, K G; Osten, R A; Peter, Th; Soderblom, D R; Usoskin, I G; Wolff, E W

    2012-01-01

    The most powerful explosions on the Sun [...] drive the most severe space-weather storms. Proxy records of flare energies based on SEPs in principle may offer the longest time base to study infrequent large events. We conclude that one suggested proxy, nitrate concentrations in polar ice cores, does not map reliably to SEP events. Concentrations of select radionuclides measured in natural archives may prove useful in extending the time interval of direct observations up to ten millennia, but as their calibration to solar flare fluences depends on multiple poorly known properties and processes, these proxies cannot presently be used to help determine the flare energy frequency distribution. Being thus limited to the use of direct flare observations, we evaluate the probabilities of large-energy solar explosions by combining solar flare observations with an ensemble of stellar flare observations. We conclude that solar flare energies form a relatively smooth distribution from small events to large flares, while...

  6. Correction of SOHO CELIAS/SEM EUV Measurements saturated by extreme solar flare events

    CERN Document Server

    Didkovsky, L V; Jones, A R; Wieman, S; Tsurutani, B T; McMullin, D

    2006-01-01

    The solar irradiance in the Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) spectral bands has been observed with a 15 sec cadence by the SOHO Solar EUV Monitor (SEM) since 1995. During remarkably intense solar flares the SEM EUV measurements are saturated in the central (zero) order channel (0.1 -- 50.0 nm) by the flare soft X-ray and EUV flux. The first order EUV channel (26 -- 34 nm) is not saturated by the flare flux because of its limited bandwidth, but it is sensitive to the arrival of Solar Energetic Particles (SEP). While both channels detect nearly equal SEP fluxes, their contributions to the count rate is sensibly negligible in the zero order channel but must be accounted for and removed from the first channel count rate. SEP contribution to the measured SEM signals usually follows the EUV peak for the gradual solar flare events. Correcting the extreme solar flare SEM EUV measurements may reveal currently unclear relations between the flare magnitude, dynamics observed in different EUV spectral bands, and the measured Ea...

  7. Magnetic storms and solar flares: can be analysed within similar mathematical framework with other extreme events?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balasis, Georgios; Potirakis, Stelios M.; Papadimitriou, Constantinos; Zitis, Pavlos I.; Eftaxias, Konstantinos

    2015-04-01

    The field of study of complex systems considers that the dynamics of complex systems are founded on universal principles that may be used to describe a great variety of scientific and technological approaches of different types of natural, artificial, and social systems. We apply concepts of the nonextensive statistical physics, on time-series data of observable manifestations of the underlying complex processes ending up to different extreme events, in order to support the suggestion that a dynamical analogy characterizes the generation of a single magnetic storm, solar flare, earthquake (in terms of pre-seismic electromagnetic signals) , epileptic seizure, and economic crisis. The analysis reveals that all the above mentioned different extreme events can be analyzed within similar mathematical framework. More precisely, we show that the populations of magnitudes of fluctuations included in all the above mentioned pulse-like-type time series follow the traditional Gutenberg-Richter law as well as a nonextensive model for earthquake dynamics, with similar nonextensive q-parameter values. Moreover, based on a multidisciplinary statistical analysis we show that the extreme events are characterized by crucial common symptoms, namely: (i) high organization, high compressibility, low complexity, high information content; (ii) strong persistency; and (iii) existence of clear preferred direction of emerged activities. These symptoms clearly discriminate the appearance of the extreme events under study from the corresponding background noise.

  8. A 3NM-64_3He added to LARC for Solar Extreme Event studies during solar cycle 24

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storini, M.; Signoretti, F.; Diego, P.; Re, F.; Laurenza, M.

    2009-02-01

    The Antarctic Laboratory for Cosmic Rays (LARC, acronym for Laboratorio Antartico per i Raggi Cosmici or Laboratorio Antártico para Rayos Cósmicos) operates on King George Island (South Shetlands). Since January 1991 a standard 6NM-64 detector has been recording continuous cosmic ray measurements and several Ground-Level Enhancements have been registered. Here we describe the different phases performed in Italy for the realization of a 3NM-64_3He detector, which started its measurements during the Italian XXII Antarctic Summer Campaign. Data recorded during solar activity cycle 24 will furnish an useful research tool for the next Solar Extreme Events.

  9. Occurrence of extreme solar particle events: Assessment from historical proxy data

    CERN Document Server

    Usoskin, I G

    2012-01-01

    The probability of occurrence of extreme solar particle events (SPEs) with the fluence of (>30 MeV) protons F30>10^{10} cm^{-2} is evaluated based on data of cosmogenic isotopes 14C and 10Be in terrestrial archives centennial-millennial time scales. Four potential candidates with F30=(1-1.5)x10^{10} cm^{-2} and no events with F30>2x10^{10} cm^{-2} are identified since 1400 AD in the annually resolved 10Be data. A strong SPE related to the Carrington flare of 1859 AD is not supported by the data. For the last 11400 years, 19 SPE candidates with F30=(1-3)x10^{10} cm^{-2} are found and clearly no event with F30>5x10^{10} cm^{-2} (50-fold the SPE of 23-Feb-1956) occurring. This values serve as an observational upper limit for the strength of SPE on the time scale of tens of millennia. Two events, ca. 780 and 1460 AD, appear in different data series making them strong candidates to extreme SPEs. We built a distribution of the occurrence probability of extreme SPEs, providing a new strict observational constraint. ...

  10. Similarities between extreme events in the solar-terrestrial system by means of nonextensivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Balasis

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The dynamics of complex systems are founded on universal principles that can be used to describe disparate problems ranging from particle physics to economies of societies. A corollary is that transferring ideas and results from investigators in hitherto disparate areas will cross-fertilize and lead to important new results. In this contribution, we investigate the existence of a universal behavior, if any, in solar flares, magnetic storms, earthquakes and pre-seismic electromagnetic (EM emissions, extending the work recently published by Balasis et al. (2011a. A common characteristic in the dynamics of the above-mentioned phenomena is that their energy release is basically fragmentary, i.e. the associated events are being composed of elementary building blocks. By analogy with earthquakes, the magnitude of the magnetic storms, solar flares and pre-seismic EM emissions can be appropriately defined. Then the key question we can ask in the frame of complexity is whether the magnitude distribution of earthquakes, magnetic storms, solar flares and pre-fracture EM emissions obeys the same law. We show that these apparently different extreme events, which occur in the solar-terrestrial system, follow the same energy distribution function. The latter was originally derived for earthquake dynamics in the framework of nonextensive Tsallis statistics.

  11. Similarities between extreme events in the solar-terrestrial system by means of nonextensivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balasis, G.; Papadimitriou, C.; Daglis, I. A.; Anastasiadis, A.; Sandberg, I.; Eftaxias, K.

    2011-09-01

    The dynamics of complex systems are founded on universal principles that can be used to describe disparate problems ranging from particle physics to economies of societies. A corollary is that transferring ideas and results from investigators in hitherto disparate areas will cross-fertilize and lead to important new results. In this contribution, we investigate the existence of a universal behavior, if any, in solar flares, magnetic storms, earthquakes and pre-seismic electromagnetic (EM) emissions, extending the work recently published by Balasis et al. (2011a). A common characteristic in the dynamics of the above-mentioned phenomena is that their energy release is basically fragmentary, i.e. the associated events are being composed of elementary building blocks. By analogy with earthquakes, the magnitude of the magnetic storms, solar flares and pre-seismic EM emissions can be appropriately defined. Then the key question we can ask in the frame of complexity is whether the magnitude distribution of earthquakes, magnetic storms, solar flares and pre-fracture EM emissions obeys the same law. We show that these apparently different extreme events, which occur in the solar-terrestrial system, follow the same energy distribution function. The latter was originally derived for earthquake dynamics in the framework of nonextensive Tsallis statistics.

  12. OCCURRENCE OF EXTREME SOLAR PARTICLE EVENTS: ASSESSMENT FROM HISTORICAL PROXY DATA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Usoskin, Ilya G. [Sodankylae Geophysical Observatory (Oulu unit) and Department of Physical Sciences, University of Oulu, FIN-90014 Oulu (Finland); Kovaltsov, Gennady A., E-mail: ilya.usoskin@oulu.fi [Ioffe Physical-Technical Institute of RAS, 194021 St. Petersburg (Russian Federation)

    2012-09-20

    The probability of occurrence of extreme solar particle events (SPEs) with proton fluence (>30 MeV) F{sub 30} {>=} 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} is evaluated based on data on the cosmogenic isotopes {sup 14}C and {sup 10}Be in terrestrial archives covering centennial-millennial timescales. Four potential candidates with F{sub 30} = (1-1.5) Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} and no events with F{sub 30} > 2 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} are identified since 1400 AD in the annually resolved {sup 10}Be data. A strong SPE related to the Carrington flare of 1859 AD is not supported by the data. For the last 11,400 years, 19 SPE candidates with F{sub 30} = (1-3) Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} are found and clearly no event with F{sub 30} > 5 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} (50 times the SPE of 1956 February 23) has occurred. These values serve as observational upper limits on the strength of SPEs on the timescale of tens of millennia. Two events, ca. 780 and 1460 AD, appear in different data series making them strong candidates for extreme SPEs. We build a distribution of the occurrence probability of extreme SPEs, providing a new strict observational constraint. Practical limits can be set as F{sub 30} Almost-Equal-To 1, 2-3, and 5 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} for occurrence probabilities Almost-Equal-To 10{sup -2}, 10{sup -3}, and 10{sup -4} yr{sup -1}, respectively. Because of the uncertainties, our results should be interpreted as a conservative upper limit on the SPE occurrence near Earth. The mean solar energetic particle (SEP) flux is evaluated as Almost-Equal-To 40 (cm{sup 2} s){sup -1}, in agreement with estimates from lunar rocks. On average, extreme SPEs contribute about 10% to the total SEP fluence.

  13. Extreme total column ozone events and effects on UV solar radiation at Thessaloniki, Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fragkos, K.; Bais, A. F.; Fountoulakis, I.; Balis, D.; Tourpali, K.; Meleti, C.; Zanis, P.

    2016-11-01

    Thirty years of total ozone column (TOC) measurements conducted by a Brewer spectrophotometer, operating in Thessaloniki (40.6°) since March 1982, have been analyzed using the statistical extreme value theory for the identification of extreme TOC events. About 12 % of the total number of days with TOC measurements were identified as extreme-low and ˜15 % as extreme-high events. The influence of the extreme-low events on the annual mean TOC values is up to ˜18 DU, while the extreme-high events show lower impact (up to 12 DU). Removing the extreme events from the time series results in smoother year-to-year variability and reduction of the small long-term linear trend (-0.08 %/year) by a factor of 2. Furthermore, we examined the impact of the extreme events on the noon erythemal irradiance under clear skies, and we provide evidence that even under extreme-low TOC conditions, the UV radiation levels are determined to a great extent by the aerosol optical depth. Although the influence of aerosols is evident during all seasons, for spring and summer, the sensitivity of UV radiation is larger, probably due to the different nature of the aerosols over Thessaloniki during these seasons.

  14. Possible effect of extreme solar energetic particle events of September–October 1989 on polar stratospheric aerosols: a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Mironova

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The main ionization source of the middle and low Earth's atmosphere is related to energetic particles coming from outer space. Usually it is ionization from cosmic rays that is always present in the atmosphere. But in a case of a very strong solar eruption, some solar energetic particles (SEPs can reach middle/low atmosphere increasing the ionization rate up to some orders of magnitude at polar latitudes. We continue investigating such a special class of solar events and their possible applications for natural variations of the aerosol content. After the case study of the extreme SEP event of January 2005 and its possible effect upon polar stratospheric aerosols, here we analyze atmospheric applications of the sequence of several events that took place over autumn 1989. Using aerosol data obtained over polar regions from two satellites with space-borne optical instruments SAGE II and SAM II that were operating during September–October 1989, we found that an extreme major SEP event might have led to formation of new particles and/or growth of preexisting ultrafine particles in the polar stratospheric region. However, the effect of the additional ambient air ionization on the aerosol formation is minor, in comparison with temperature effect, and can take place only in the cold polar atmospheric conditions. The extra aerosol mass formed under the temperature effect allows attributing most of the changes to the "ion–aerosol clear sky mechanism".

  15. Possible effect of extreme solar energetic particle events of September–October 1989 on polar stratospheric aerosols: a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Mironova

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The main ionization source of the middle and low Earth atmosphere is related to energetic particles coming from outer space. Usually it is ionization from cosmic rays that is always present in the atmosphere. But in a case of a very strong solar eruption some solar energetic particles (SEP can reach middle/low atmosphere increasing the ionization rate up to some orders of magnitude at polar latitudes. We continue investigating such a special class of solar events and their possible applications for natural variations of the aerosol content. After the case study of the extreme SEP event of January 2005 and its possible effect upon polar stratospheric aerosols, here we analyze atmospheric applications of the second sequence of several events that took place over the Autumn 1989. Using aerosol data obtained over polar regions from two satellites with space-borne optical instruments SAGE II and SAM II that were operating during September–October 1989, we found that an extreme major SEP event might have led to formation of new particles and/or growth of preexisting ultrafine particles in the polar stratospheric region. However, the effect of the additional ambient air ionization on the aerosol formation is minor, in comparison with temperature effect, and can take place only in the cold polar atmospheric conditions.

  16. Extreme solar event of AD775: Potential radiation exposure to crews in deep space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Townsend, L. W.; Porter, J. A.; deWet, W. C.; Smith, W. J.; McGirl, N. A.; Heilbronn, L. H.; Moussa, H. M.

    2016-06-01

    The existence of a historically large cosmic event in AD774 or 775, of probable solar origin, has recently been confirmed from records of 14C levels in tree rings located at widely separated locations on Earth, 10Be records in polar ice cores, and historical records of aurora sightings. Usoskin et al. (2013) [16] suggest that such an event, of solar origin, would have a proton fluence of ~4.5×1010 cm-2 at energies above 30 MeV, with a hard energy spectrum comparable to the event of 23 February 1956. In this work we investigate the possible radiation exposures to crews of missions on the surface of Mars, from such an event. In this work we use the HZETRN radiation transport code, originally developed at NASA Langley Research Center, and the Computerized Anatomical Male and Female human geometry models to estimate exposures for a variety of aluminum shield areal densities similar to those provided by a spacesuit, surface lander, and permanent habitat on the Martian surface. Comparisons of the predicted organ exposures with recently-recommended radiation exposure limits are made. Potential health effects on crews, of such an event, are also discussed.

  17. Analysis of extreme events

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Khuluse, S

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available ) determination of the distribution of the damage and (iii) preparation of products that enable prediction of future risk events. The methodology provided by extreme value theory can also be a powerful tool in risk analysis...

  18. Response of Extreme Precipitation to Solar Activity and El Nino Events in Typical Regions of the Loess Plateau

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. J. Li

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Extreme climatic oscillation has been the subject of global attention. The purpose of this study is to explore the response of extreme precipitation to solar activity and El Nino events in typical regions of the Loess Plateau—a case study in the Yan’an area. The precipitation data was from nine weather stations in Yan’an and the sunspot number and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI were from 1951 to 2015. The results show that maximum precipitation occurred mainly at the peak sunspot number or 2a near it and the sunspot number minimum and valley values were not significantly correlated. The results of Morlet wavelet showed that a 41-year period of precipitation was the most obvious within the 64-year scale. Similarly, sunspot number showed a 16-year periodic variability. Correlation analyses of the 16-year and 41-year scales demonstrated that the relationships between precipitation and sunspot number were close. In addition, extreme precipitation often occurred in the year following El Nino events. According to 10-year moving average curves, precipitation generally showed a downward trend when SOI was negative. The results indicate that solar activity and El Nino events had significant impacts on precipitation in typical regions of the Loess Plateau.

  19. Possible effect of extreme solar energetic particle event of 20 January 2005 on polar stratospheric aerosols: direct observational evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Mironova

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Energetic cosmic rays are the main source of ionization of the low-middle atmosphere, leading to associated changes in atmospheric properties. Via the hypothetical influence of ionization on aerosol growth and facilitated formation of clouds, this may be an important indirect link relating solar variability to climate. This effect is highly debated, however, since the proposed theoretical mechanisms still remain illusive and qualitative, and observational evidence is inconclusive and controversial. Therefore, important questions regarding the existence and magnitude of the effect, and particularly the fraction of aerosol particles that can form and grow, are still open. Here we present empirical evidence of the possible effect caused by cosmic rays upon polar stratospheric aerosols, based on a case study of an extreme solar energetic particle (SEP event of 20 January 2005. Using aerosol data obtained over polar regions from different satellites with optical instruments that were operating during January 2005, such as the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III, and Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imaging System (OSIRIS, we found a significant simultaneous change in aerosol properties in both the Southern and Northern Polar regions in temporal association with the SEP event. We speculate that ionization of the atmosphere, which was abnormally high in the lower stratosphere during the extreme SEP event, might have led to formation of new particles and/or growth of preexisting ultrafine particles in the polar stratospheric region. However, a detailed interpretation of the effect is left for subsequent studies. This is the first time high vertical resolution measurements have been used to discuss possible production of stratospheric aerosols under the influence of cosmic ray induced ionization. The observed effect is marginally detectable for the analyzed severe SEP event and can be undetectable for the majority of weak

  20. Possible effect of extreme solar energetic particle event of 20 January 2005 on polar stratospheric aerosols: direct observational evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Mironova

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Energetic cosmic rays are the main source of ionization of the low-middle atmosphere, leading to associated changes in atmospheric properties. Via the hypothetical influence of ionization on aerosol growth and facilitated formation of cloud condensation nuclei, this may be an important indirect link relating solar variability to climate. This effect is highly debated, however, since the proposed theoretical mechanisms still remain illusive and qualitative, and observational evidence is inconclusive and controversial. Therefore, important questions regarding the existence and magnitude of the effect, and particularly the fraction of aerosol particles that can be formed and grow large enough to influence cloud condensation nuclei (CCN, are still open. Here we present empirical evidence of the possible effect caused by cosmic rays upon polar stratospheric aerosols, based on a case study of an extreme solar energetic particle (SEP event of 20 January 2005. Using aerosol data obtained over polar regions from different satellites with optical instruments that were operating during January 2005, such as the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III, and Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imaging System (OSIRIS, we found a significant simultaneous change in aerosol properties in both the southern and northern polar regions in temporal association with the SEP event. We speculate that ionization of the atmosphere, which was abnormally high during this extreme SEP event, might have led to formation of new particles and/or growth of preexisting ultrafine particles up to the size of CCN. However, a detailed interpretation of the effect is left for subsequent studies. This is the first time high vertical resolution measurements have been used to provide evidence for the probable production of stratospheric CCN from cosmic ray induced ionization.

  1. An Extreme Solar Event of 20 January 2005: Properties of the Flare and the Origin of Energetic Particles

    CERN Document Server

    Grechnev, V V; Chertok, I M; Uralov, A M; Nakajima, H; Altyntsev, A T; Belov, A V; Yushkov, B Yu; Kuznetsov, S N; Kashapova, L K; Meshalkina, N S; Prestage, N P

    2008-01-01

    The extreme solar and SEP event of 20 January 2005 is analyzed from two perspectives. Firstly, we study features of the main phase of the flare, when the strongest emissions from microwaves up to 200 MeV gamma-rays were observed. Secondly, we relate our results to a long-standing controversy on the origin of SEPs arriving at Earth, i.e., acceleration in flares, or shocks ahead of CMEs. All emissions from microwaves up to 2.22 MeV line gamma-rays during the main flare phase originated within a compact structure located just above sunspot umbrae. A huge radio burst with a frequency maximum at 30 GHz was observed, indicating the presence of a large number of energetic electrons in strong magnetic fields. Thus, protons and electrons responsible for flare emissions during its main phase were accelerated within the magnetic field of the active region. The leading, impulsive parts of the GLE, and highest-energy gamma-rays identified with pi^0-decay emission, are similar and correspond in time. The origin of the pi^0...

  2. Interplanetary shocks and solar wind extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vats, Hari

    The interplanetary shocks have a very high correlation with the annual sunspot numbers during the solar cycle; however the correlation falls very low on shorter time scale. Thus poses questions and difficulty in the predictability. Space weather is largely controlled by these interplanetary shocks, solar energetic events and the extremes of solar wind. In fact most of the solar wind extremes are related to the solar energetic phenomena. It is quite well understood that the energetic events like flares, filament eruptions etc. occurring on the Sun produce high speed extremes both in terms of density and speed. There is also high speed solar wind steams associated with the coronal holes mainly because the magnetic field lines are open there and the solar plasma finds it easy to escape from there. These are relatively tenuous high speed streams and hence create low intensity geomagnetic storms of higher duration. The solar flares and/or filament eruptions usually release excess coronal mass into the interplanetary medium and thus these energetic events send out high density and high speed solar wind which statistically found to produce more intense storms. The other extremes of solar wind are those in which density and speed are much lower than the normal values. Several such events have been observed and are found to produce space weather consequences of different kind. It is found that such extremes are more common around the maximum of solar cycle 20 and 23. Most of these have significantly low Alfven Mach number. This article is intended to outline the interplanetary and geomagnetic consequences of observed by ground based and satellite systems for the solar wind extremes.

  3. Extreme Energy Events Monitoring report

    CERN Document Server

    Baimukhamedova, Nigina

    2015-01-01

    Following paper reflects the progress I made on Summer Student Program within Extreme Energy Events Monitor project I was working on. During 8 week period I managed to build a simple detector system that is capable of triggering events similar to explosions (sudden change in sound levels) and measuring approximate location of the event. Source codes are available upon request and settings described further.

  4. On causality of extreme events

    CERN Document Server

    Zanin, Massimiliano

    2016-01-01

    Multiple metrics have been developed to detect causality relations between data describing the elements constituting complex systems, all of them considering their evolution through time. Here we propose a metric able to detect causality within static data sets, by analysing how extreme events in one element correspond to the appearance of extreme events in a second one. The metric is able to detect both linear and non-linear causalities; to analyse both cross-sectional and longitudinal data sets; and to discriminate between real causalities and correlations caused by confounding factors. We validate the metric through synthetic data, dynamical and chaotic systems, and data representing the human brain activity in a cognitive task.

  5. On causality of extreme events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Massimiliano Zanin

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Multiple metrics have been developed to detect causality relations between data describing the elements constituting complex systems, all of them considering their evolution through time. Here we propose a metric able to detect causality within static data sets, by analysing how extreme events in one element correspond to the appearance of extreme events in a second one. The metric is able to detect non-linear causalities; to analyse both cross-sectional and longitudinal data sets; and to discriminate between real causalities and correlations caused by confounding factors. We validate the metric through synthetic data, dynamical and chaotic systems, and data representing the human brain activity in a cognitive task. We further show how the proposed metric is able to outperform classical causality metrics, provided non-linear relationships are present and large enough data sets are available.

  6. On causality of extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Multiple metrics have been developed to detect causality relations between data describing the elements constituting complex systems, all of them considering their evolution through time. Here we propose a metric able to detect causality within static data sets, by analysing how extreme events in one element correspond to the appearance of extreme events in a second one. The metric is able to detect non-linear causalities; to analyse both cross-sectional and longitudinal data sets; and to discriminate between real causalities and correlations caused by confounding factors. We validate the metric through synthetic data, dynamical and chaotic systems, and data representing the human brain activity in a cognitive task. We further show how the proposed metric is able to outperform classical causality metrics, provided non-linear relationships are present and large enough data sets are available. PMID:27330866

  7. Interpretation of Extreme Scattering Events

    CERN Document Server

    Walker, M A

    2000-01-01

    Extreme Scattering Events are sometimes manifest in the light-curves of compact radio-quasars at frequencies of a few GHz. These events are not understood. The model which appears to offer the best explanation requires a new population of AU-sized, neutral gas clouds; these clouds would then make up a large fraction of the Galaxy's dark matter. Independent of the question of which theoretical model is correct, if we extrapolate the observed behaviour to low radio-frequencies, we expect that the sky should be criss-crossed by a network of narrow caustics, at frequencies below about 700 MHz. Consequently at these frequencies sources should typically manifest additional, faint images which are substantially delayed with respect to the primary image. Although some examples of this type of behaviour are already known, it is expected that these are just the tip of the iceberg, with strong selection biases having been imposed by the instrumentation employed to date.

  8. Solar Eruptive Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holman, Gordon D.

    2012-01-01

    It s long been known that the Sun plays host to the most energetic explosions in the solar system. But key insights into the forms that energy takes have only recently become available. Solar flares have been phenomena of both academic and practical interest since their discovery in 1859. From the academic point of view, they are the nearest events for studying the explosive release of energy in astrophysical magnetized plasmas. From the practical point of view, they disrupt communication channels on Earth, from telegraph communications in 1859 to radio and television signals today. Flares also wreak havoc on the electrical power grid, satellite operations, and GPS signals, and energetic charged particles and radiation are dangerous to passengers on high-altitude polar flights and to astronauts. Flares are not the only explosive phenomena on the Sun. More difficult to observe but equally energetic are the large coronal mass ejections (CMEs), the ejection of up to ten billion tons of magnetized plasma into the solar wind at speeds that can exceed 1000 km/s. CMEs are primarily observed from the side, with coronagraphs that block out the bright disk of the Sun and lower solar atmosphere so that light scattered from the ejected mass can be seen. Major geomagnetic storms are now known to arise from the interaction of CMEs with Earth's magnetosphere. Solar flares are observed without CMEs, and CMEs are observed without flares. The two phenomena often occur together, however, and almost always do in the case of large flares and fast CMEs. The term solar eruptive event refers to the combination of a flare and a CME. Solar eruptive events generate a lot of heat: They can heat plasma to temperatures as high at 50 million Kelvin, producing radiation across the electromagnetic spectrum. But that s not all. A fascinating aspect of solar eruptive events is the acceleration of electrons and ions to suprathermal often relativistic energies. The accelerated particles are primarily

  9. Detection of solar events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischbach, Ephraim; Jenkins, Jere

    2013-08-27

    A flux detection apparatus can include a radioactive sample having a decay rate capable of changing in response to interaction with a first particle or a field, and a detector associated with the radioactive sample. The detector is responsive to a second particle or radiation formed by decay of the radioactive sample. The rate of decay of the radioactive sample can be correlated to flux of the first particle or the field. Detection of the first particle or the field can provide an early warning for an impending solar event.

  10. Extreme Events in Nature and Society

    CERN Document Server

    Albeverio, Sergio; Kantz, Holger

    2006-01-01

    Significant, and usually unwelcome, surprises, such as floods, financial crisis, epileptic seizures, or material rupture, are the topics of Extreme Events in Nature and Society. The book, authored by foremost experts in these fields, reveals unifying and distinguishing features of extreme events, including problems of understanding and modelling their origin, spatial and temporal extension, and potential impact. The chapters converge towards the difficult problem of anticipation: forecasting the event and proposing measures to moderate or prevent it. Extreme Events in Nature and Society will interest not only specialists, but also the general reader eager to learn how the multifaceted field of extreme events can be viewed as a coherent whole.

  11. Geo-effectiveness of Solar Wind Extremes

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Hari Om Vats

    2006-06-01

    Examples of extreme events of solar wind and their effect on geomagnetic conditions are discussed here. It is found that there are two regimes of high speed solar wind streams with a threshold of ∼ 850 km s-1. Geomagnetic activity enhancement rate (GAER) is defined as an average increase in Ap value per unit average increase in the peak solar wind velocity (Vp) during the stream. GAER was found to be different in the two regimes of high speed streams with +ve and -ve IMF. GAER is 0.73 and 0.53 for solar wind streams with +ve and -ve IMF respectively for the extremely high speed streams (< 850 km s-1). This indicates that streams above the threshold speed with +ve IMF are 1.4 times more effective in enhancing geomagnetic activity than those with -ve IMF. However, the high speed streams below the threshold with -ve IMF are 1.1 times more effective in enhancing geomagnetic activity than those with +ve IMF. The violent solar activity period (October–November 2003) of cycle 23 presents a very special case during which many severe and strong effects were seen in the environment of the Earth and other planets; however, the z-component of IMF (Bz) is mostly positive during this period. The most severe geomagnetic storm of this cycle occurred when Bz was positive.

  12. Extreme weather events and infectious disease outbreaks

    OpenAIRE

    McMichael, Anthony J.

    2015-01-01

    Human-driven climatic changes will fundamentally influence patterns of human health, including infectious disease clusters and epidemics following extreme weather events. Extreme weather events are projected to increase further with the advance of human-driven climate change. Both recent and historical experiences indicate that infectious disease outbreaks very often follow extreme weather events, as microbes, vectors and reservoir animal hosts exploit the disrupted social and environmental c...

  13. Solar Sources of $^{3}$He-rich Solar Energetic Particle Events in Solar Cycle 24

    OpenAIRE

    Nitta, Nariaki V.; Mason, Glenn M.; Wang, Linghua; Cohen, Christina M. S.; Wiedenbeck, Mark E.

    2015-01-01

    Using high-cadence extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) images obtained by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory, we investigate the solar sources of 26 $^{3}$He-rich solar energetic particle (SEP) events at $\\lesssim$1 MeV nucleon$^{-1}$ that were well-observed by the Advanced Composition Explorer during solar cycle 24. Identification of the solar sources is based on the association of $^{3}$He-rich events with type III radio bursts and electron events as observ...

  14. Stationarity of extreme bursts in the solar wind.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moloney, N R; Davidsen, J

    2014-05-01

    Recent results have suggested that the statistics of bursts in the solar wind vary with solar cycle. Here, we show that this variation is basically absent if one considers extreme bursts. These are defined as threshold-exceeding events over the range of high thresholds for which their number decays as a power law. In particular, we find that the distribution of duration times and energies of extreme bursts in the solar wind ε parameter and similar observables are independent of the solar cycle and in this sense stationary, and show robust asymptotic power laws with exponents that are independent of the specific threshold. This is consistent with what has been observed for solar flares and, thus, provides evidence in favor of a link between solar flares and extreme bursts in the solar wind.

  15. Enhanced horizontal extreme-echo speed occurrence leading to polar mesospheric summer echoes (PMSE) increase at solar-wind pressure enhancement during high-speed solar wind stream events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Y.; Kirkwood, S.; Kwak, Y.; Kim, K.; Shepherd, G. G.

    2013-12-01

    We report on horizontal extreme echo speeds (HEES, ≥ 300 ms^{-1}) observed in long-periodic polar mesospheric summer echoes (PMSE) correlated with solar-wind speed in high speed solar wind streams (HSS) events. The observations were made from VHF 52 MHz radar measurements at Esrange (67.8°N, 20.4°E) between June 1-August 8 in 2006 and 2008. The periodicities of PMSE counts and the volume reflectivity primarily occur at 7, 9 and 13.5 days possibly by the effects of HSS, while the periodicities at 4-6 days are competitively coherent between planetary waves appearing in temperature and solar-wind speed during HSS events. The peaks of both HEES occurrence rate relative to PMSE and turbulence dominantly occur at solar-wind pressure enhancement with minor peaks continued under the passage of HSS over the magnetopause, followed by PMSE peaks in 1-3 days later. This study gives the results that the precipitating high-energetic particles (> 30 keV) during HSS likely induce D-region ionization involved with the consecutive processes of HEES, turbulence and PMSE. The turbulence evolved from the HEES can be explained with the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability, which was observed in PMSE by Röttger et al. [11th International Workshop on technical and scientific aspects of MST Radar, 2006] and firstly simulated for PMSE generation by Hill et al. [Earth Planets Space, 1999]. The HEES is understood as the speed of fast moving ions, accelerated by strong electric field as Lee & Shepherd [JGR, 2010] suggested with the supersonic velocities persisting in polar mesospheric clouds (PMC) region observed at enhanced O(^1S) emission rate ( 10 kR) by WINDII/UARS satellite.

  16. Extreme weather events and infectious disease outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMichael, Anthony J

    2015-01-01

    Human-driven climatic changes will fundamentally influence patterns of human health, including infectious disease clusters and epidemics following extreme weather events. Extreme weather events are projected to increase further with the advance of human-driven climate change. Both recent and historical experiences indicate that infectious disease outbreaks very often follow extreme weather events, as microbes, vectors and reservoir animal hosts exploit the disrupted social and environmental conditions of extreme weather events. This review article examines infectious disease risks associated with extreme weather events; it draws on recent experiences including Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the 2010 Pakistan mega-floods, and historical examples from previous centuries of epidemics and 'pestilence' associated with extreme weather disasters and climatic changes. A fuller understanding of climatic change, the precursors and triggers of extreme weather events and health consequences is needed in order to anticipate and respond to the infectious disease risks associated with human-driven climate change. Post-event risks to human health can be constrained, nonetheless, by reducing background rates of persistent infection, preparatory action such as coordinated disease surveillance and vaccination coverage, and strengthened disaster response. In the face of changing climate and weather conditions, it is critically important to think in ecological terms about the determinants of health, disease and death in human populations.

  17. Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas, Katherine [National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC (United States)

    2016-03-31

    A report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine concludes it is now possible to estimate the influence of climate change on some types of extreme events. The science of extreme event attribution has advanced rapidly in recent years, giving new insight to the ways that human-caused climate change can influence the magnitude or frequency of some extreme weather events. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities. Confidence is strongest in attributing types of extreme events that are influenced by climate change through a well-understood physical mechanism, such as, the more frequent heat waves that are closely connected to human-caused global temperature increases, the report finds. Confidence is lower for other types of events, such as hurricanes, whose relationship to climate change is more complex and less understood at present. For any extreme event, the results of attribution studies hinge on how questions about the event's causes are posed, and on the data, modeling approaches, and statistical tools chosen for the analysis.

  18. Characteristics of Extreme Auroral Charging Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minow, Joseph I.; Willis, Emily; Parker, Linda Neergaard

    2014-01-01

    Today’s presentation describes preliminary results from a study of extreme auroral charging in low Earth orbit. Goal of study is to document characteristics of auroral charging events of importance to spacecraft design, operations, and anomaly investigations.

  19. Extreme events monitoring from space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerr, Yann; Bitar, Ahmad Al; Mahmoodi, Ali; Richaume, Philippe; Al-Yaari, Amen; Wigneron, Jean-Pierre

    2016-04-01

    The SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) satellite was successfully launched in November 2009. This ESA led mission for Earth Observation is dedicated to provide soil moisture over continental surface (with an accuracy goal of 0.04 m3/m3), vegetation water content over land, and ocean salinity. These geophysical features are important as they control the energy balance between the surface and the atmosphere. Their knowledge at a global scale is of interest for climatic and weather researches, and in particular in improving model forecasts. The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity mission has now been collecting data for 6 years. The whole data set has just been reprocessed (Version 620 for levels 1 and 2 and version 3 for level 3 CATDS). After 6 years it seems important to start using data for having a look at anomalies and see how they can relate to large scale events The purpose of this communication is to present the mission results after more than six years in orbit in a climatic trend perspective, as through such a period anomalies can be detected. Thereby we benefit from consistent datasets provided through the latest reprocessing using most recent algorithm enhancements. Using the above mentioned products it is possible to follow large events such as the evolution of the droughts in North America, or water fraction evolution over the Amazonian basin. In this occasion we will focus on the analysis of SMOS and ancillary products anomalies to reveal two climatic trends, the temporal evolution of water storage over the Indian continent in relation to rainfall anomalies, and the global impact of El Nino types of events on the general water storage distribution. This presentation shows in detail the use of long term data sets of L-band microwave radiometry in two specific cases, namely droughts and water budget over a large basin. Several other analyses are under way currently. Obviously, vegetation water content, but also dielectric constant, are carrying a wealth

  20. SMOS data and extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerr, Yann; Wigneron, Jean-Pierre; Ferrazzoli, Paolo; Mahmoodi, Ali; Al-Yaari, Amen; Parrens, Marie; Bitar, Ahmad Al; Rodriguez-Fernandez, Nemesio; Bircher, Simone; Molero-rodenas, Beatriz; Drusch, Matthias; Mecklenburg, Susanne

    2017-04-01

    The SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) satellite was successfully launched in November 2009. This ESA led mission for Earth Observation is dedicated to provide soil moisture over continental surface (with an accuracy goal of 0.04 m3/m3), vegetation water content over land, and ocean salinity. These geophysical features are important as they control the energy balance between the surface and the atmosphere. Their knowledge at a global scale is of interest for climatic and weather researches, and in particular in improving model forecasts. The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity mission has now been collecting data for over 7 years. The whole data set has been reprocessed (Version 620 for levels 1 and 2 and version 3 for level 3 CATDS) while operational near real time soil moisture data is now available and assimilation of SMOS data in NWP has proved successful. After 7 years it seems important to start using data for having a look at anomalies and see how they can relate to large scale events. We have also produced a 15 year soil moisture data set by merging SMOS and AMSR using a neural network approach. The purpose of this communication is to present the mission results after more than seven years in orbit in a climatic trend perspective, as through such a period anomalies can be detected. Thereby we benefit from consistent datasets provided through the latest reprocessing using most recent algorithm enhancements. Using the above mentioned products it is possible to follow large events such as the evolution of the droughts in North America, or water fraction evolution over the Amazonian basin. In this occasion we will focus on the analysis of SMOS and ancillary products anomalies to reveal two climatic trends, the temporal evolution of water storage over the Indian continent in relation to rainfall anomalies, and the global impact of El Nino types of events on the general water storage distribution. This presentation shows in detail the use of long term data sets

  1. Overview of the biology of extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutschick, V. P.; Bassirirad, H.

    2008-12-01

    Extreme events have, variously, meteorological origins as in heat waves or precipitation extremes, or biological origins as in pest and disease eruptions (or tectonic, earth-orbital, or impact-body origins). Despite growing recognition that these events are changing in frequency and intensity, a universal model of ecological responses to these events is slow to emerge. Extreme events, negative and positive, contrast with normal events in terms of their effects on the physiology, ecology, and evolution of organisms, hence also on water, carbon, and nutrient cycles. They structure biogeographic ranges and biomes, almost surely more than mean values often used to define biogeography. They are challenging to study for obvious reasons of field-readiness but also because they are defined by sequences of driving variables such as temperature, not point events. As sequences, their statistics (return times, for example) are challenging to develop, as also from the involvement of multiple environmental variables. These statistics are not captured well by climate models. They are expected to change with climate and land-use change but our predictive capacity is currently limited. A number of tools for description and analysis of extreme events are available, if not widely applied to date. Extremes for organisms are defined by their fitness effects on those organisms, and are specific to genotypes, making them major agents of natural selection. There is evidence that effects of extreme events may be concentrated in an extended recovery phase. We review selected events covering ranges of time and magnitude, from Snowball Earth to leaf functional loss in weather events. A number of events, such as the 2003 European heat wave, evidence effects on water and carbon cycles over large regions. Rising CO2 is the recent extreme of note, for its climatic effects and consequences for growing seasons, transpiration, etc., but also directly in its action as a substrate of photosynthesis

  2. Predictability of extreme events in social media

    CERN Document Server

    Miotto, José M

    2014-01-01

    It is part of our daily social-media experience that seemingly ordinary items (videos, news, publications, etc.) unexpectedly gain an enormous amount of attention. Here we investigate how unexpected these events are. We propose a method that, given some information on the items, quantifies the predictability of events, i.e., the potential of identifying in advance the most successful items defined as the upper bound for the quality of any prediction based on the same information. Applying this method to different data, ranging from views in YouTube videos to posts in Usenet discussion groups, we invariantly find that the predictability increases for the most extreme events. This indicates that, despite the inherently stochastic collective dynamics of users, efficient prediction is possible for the most extreme events.

  3. Solar impulsive energetic electron events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Linghua

    The Sun is capable of accelerating ions from ~ tens of keV up to tens of GeV and electrons from ~ tens of eV up to hundreds of MeVs in transient events such as flares and fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The energized particles escaping into the interplanetary medium are referred to as Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events. The great majority of SEP events are impulsive SEP events that are dominated by ~1-100 keV electrons and ~MeV/nucleon ion emissions, with enhanced 3 He/ 4 He ratios up to 10 4 times the coronal values (also called electron/ 3 He-rich SEP events). This thesis is focused on solar impulsive energetic electron events, the electron part of impulsive SEP events, using electron observations from the 3-D Plasma and Energetic Particle instrument (3DP) on the WIND spacecraft near the Earth. First, I present the first comprehensive statistical study of solar energetic electron events over almost one solar cycle. I find that the occurrence rate of solar electron events shows a strong solar-cycle variation; after correction for the background effect, the estimated occurrence frequency exhibits a good power-law distribution, and the estimated occurrence rate near the Earth is ~1000/year at solar maximum and ~30/year at solar minimum for the instrumental sensitivity (~2.9×10^-4 (cm 2 s str eV) -1 for the 40 keV channel) of WIND/3DP, about one order of magnitude larger than the observed occurrence rate. Solar energetic electron events have a one-to-one association with type III radio bursts and a poor association with flares, but a close association with 3 He- rich ion emissions. These 3 He-rich electron events also have a poor association with flares but a close (~ 60%) association with west-limb CMEs. Then I present two case studies: one investigating the temporal relationship between solar impulsive electrons and type III radio emissions, and the second studying the temporal relationship between solar impulsive electrons and 3 He- rich ions. For both

  4. A Fourier analysis of extreme events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mikosch, Thomas Valentin; Zhao, Yuwei

    2014-01-01

    The extremogram is an asymptotic correlogram for extreme events constructed from a regularly varying stationary sequence. In this paper, we define a frequency domain analog of the correlogram: a periodogram generated from a suitable sequence of indicator functions of rare events. We derive basic ...... properties of the periodogram such as the asymptotic independence at the Fourier frequencies and use this property to show that weighted versions of the periodogram are consistent estimators of a spectral density derived from the extremogram....

  5. On Extreme Events in Banking and Finance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.R.C. Oordt (Maarten)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractUncertainty and new developments spread at an astonishing speed across the globe in financial markets. The recent extreme events in banking and finance triggered many new questions among academics, policy makers and the general public. Is global diversification at financial institutions

  6. Biological Extreme Events - Past, Present, and Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutschick, V. P.

    2010-12-01

    Biological extreme events span wide ranges temporally and spatially and in type - population dieoffs, extinctions, ecological reorganizations, changes in biogeochemical fluxes, and more. Driving variables consist in meteorology, tectonics, orbital changes, anthropogenic changes (land-use change, species introductions, reactive N injection into the biosphere), and evolution (esp. of diseases). However, the mapping of extremes in the drivers onto biological extremes as organismal responses is complex, as laid out originally in the theoretical framework of Gutschick and BassiriRad (New Phytologist [2003] 100:21-42). Responses are nonlinear and dependent on (mostly unknown and) complex temporal sequences - often of multiple environmental variables. The responses are species- and genotype specific. I review extreme events over from past to present over wide temporal scales, while noting that they are not wholly informative of responses to the current and near-future drivers for at least two reasons: 1) the current combination of numerous environmental extremes - changes in CO2, temperature, precipitation, reactive N, land fragmentation, O3, etc. -is unprecedented in scope, and 2) adaptive genetic variation for organismal responses is constrained by poorly-characterized genetic structures (in organisms and populations) and by loss of genetic variation by genetic drift over long periods. We may expect radical reorganizations of ecosystem and biogeochemical functions. These changes include many ecosystem services in flood control, crop pollination and insect/disease control, C-water-mineral cycling, and more, as well as direct effects on human health. Predictions of such changes will necessarily be very weak in the critical next few decades, given the great deal of observation, experimentation, and theory construction that will be necessary, on both organisms and drivers. To make the research efforts most effective will require extensive, insightful planning, beginning

  7. Solar Sources of $^{3}$He-rich Solar Energetic Particle Events in Solar Cycle 24

    CERN Document Server

    Nitta, Nariaki V; Wang, Linghua; Cohen, Christina M S; Wiedenbeck, Mark E

    2015-01-01

    Using high-cadence extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) images obtained by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory, we investigate the solar sources of 26 $^{3}$He-rich solar energetic particle (SEP) events at $\\lesssim$1 MeV nucleon$^{-1}$ that were well-observed by the Advanced Composition Explorer during solar cycle 24. Identification of the solar sources is based on the association of $^{3}$He-rich events with type III radio bursts and electron events as observed by Wind. The source locations are further verified in EUV images from the Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory, which provides information on solar activities in the regions not visible from the Earth. Based on AIA observations, $^{3}$He-rich events are not only associated with coronal jets as emphasized in solar cycle 23 studies, but also with more spatially extended eruptions. The properties of the $^{3}$He-rich events do not appear to be strongly correlated with those of the source regions. As in the previous...

  8. Climate change and extreme events in weather

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshKumar, M.R.

    monsoon and b) tropical cyclones. Basically the climate of India is domi- nated by the south west monsoon season which accounts for about 75% of the annual rainfall. The extreme weather events occur over India are: Floods, Droughts, Tropical Cyclones..., Heat Waves and Cold Waves, Storms Surges, Hail Storms, Thunderstorms, Dust Storms. Floods, droughts and tropical cyclones have specific significance a far as India is concerned. Floods and droughts are the two sides of the weather phenomena...

  9. Are extreme events (statistically) special? (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Main, I. G.; Naylor, M.; Greenhough, J.; Touati, S.; Bell, A. F.; McCloskey, J.

    2009-12-01

    We address the generic problem of testing for scale-invariance in extreme events, i.e. are the biggest events in a population simply a scaled model of those of smaller size, or are they in some way different? Are large earthquakes for example ‘characteristic’, do they ‘know’ how big they will be before the event nucleates, or is the size of the event determined only in the avalanche-like process of rupture? In either case what are the implications for estimates of time-dependent seismic hazard? One way of testing for departures from scale invariance is to examine the frequency-size statistics, commonly used as a bench mark in a number of applications in Earth and Environmental sciences. Using frequency data however introduces a number of problems in data analysis. The inevitably small number of data points for extreme events and more generally the non-Gaussian statistical properties strongly affect the validity of prior assumptions about the nature of uncertainties in the data. The simple use of traditional least squares (still common in the literature) introduces an inherent bias to the best fit result. We show first that the sampled frequency in finite real and synthetic data sets (the latter based on the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence model) converge to a central limit only very slowly due to temporal correlations in the data. A specific correction for temporal correlations enables an estimate of convergence properties to be mapped non-linearly on to a Gaussian one. Uncertainties closely follow a Poisson distribution of errors across the whole range of seismic moment for typical catalogue sizes. In this sense the confidence limits are scale-invariant. A systematic sample bias effect due to counting whole numbers in a finite catalogue makes a ‘characteristic’-looking type extreme event distribution a likely outcome of an underlying scale-invariant probability distribution. This highlights the tendency of ‘eyeball’ fits to unconsciously (but

  10. Detecting Extreme Events in Gridded Climate Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramachandra, Bharathkumar [North Carolina State University (NCSU), Raleigh; Gadiraju, Krishna [North Carolina State University (NCSU), Raleigh; Vatsavai, Raju [North Carolina State University (NCSU), Raleigh; Kaiser, Dale Patrick [ORNL; Karnowski, Thomas Paul [ORNL

    2016-01-01

    Detecting and tracking extreme events in gridded climatological data is a challenging problem on several fronts: algorithms, scalability, and I/O. Successful detection of these events will give climate scientists an alternate view of the behavior of different climatological variables, leading to enhanced scientific understanding of the impacts of events such as heat and cold waves, and on a larger scale, the El Nin o Southern Oscillation. Recent advances in computing power and research in data sciences enabled us to look at this problem with a different perspective from what was previously possible. In this paper we present our computationally efficient algorithms for anomalous cluster detection on climate change big data. We provide results on detection and tracking of surface temperature and geopotential height anomalies, a trend analysis, and a study of relationships between the variables. We also identify the limitations of our approaches, future directions for research and alternate approaches.

  11. Microstructured extremely thin absorber solar cells

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Biancardo, Matteo; Krebs, Frederik C

    2007-01-01

    In this paper we present the realization of extremely thin absorber (ETA) solar cells employing conductive glass substrates functionalized with TiO2 microstructures produced by embossing. Nanocrystalline or compact TiO2 films on Indium doped tin oxide (ITO) glass substrates were embossed...

  12. Solar Eruptive Events (SEE) 2020 Mission Concept

    CERN Document Server

    Lin, R P; Krucker, S; Hudson, H; Hurford, G; Bandler, S; Christe, S; Davila, J; Dennis, B; Holman, G; Milligan, R; Shih, A Y; Kahler, S; Kontar, E; Wiedenbeck, M; Cirtain, J; Doschek, G; Share, G H; Vourlidas, A; Raymond, J; Smith, D M; McConnell, M; Emslie, G

    2013-01-01

    Major solar eruptive events (SEEs), consisting of both a large flare and a near simultaneous large fast coronal mass ejection (CME), are the most powerful explosions and also the most powerful and energetic particle accelerators in the solar system, producing solar energetic particles (SEPs) up to tens of GeV for ions and hundreds of MeV for electrons. The intense fluxes of escaping SEPs are a major hazard for humans in space and for spacecraft. Furthermore, the solar plasma ejected at high speed in the fast CME completely restructures the interplanetary medium (IPM) - major SEEs therefore produce the most extreme space weather in geospace, the interplanetary medium, and at other planets. Thus, understanding the flare/CME energy release process(es) and the related particle acceleration processes are major goals in Heliophysics. To make the next major breakthroughs, we propose a new mission concept, SEE 2020, a single spacecraft with a complement of advanced new instruments that focus directly on the coronal e...

  13. Astrophysics of "extreme" solar-like stars

    CERN Document Server

    Caballero-Garcia, M D; Claret, A; Gazeas, K; Simon, V; Jelinek, M; Cwiek, A; Zarnecki, A F; Oates, S; Jeong, S; Hudec, R

    2015-01-01

    Only a few red dwarf flaring stars in the solar neighbourhood have undergone exceptional events called superflares. They have been detected with high-energy satellites (i.e. Swift) and have been proven to be powerful events (both in intensity and energy) and potentially hazardous for any extraterrestial life. The physics of these events can be understood as an extrapolation of the (much) weaker activity already occurring in the most powerful solar flares occurring in the Sun. Nevertheless, the origin (why?) these superflares occur is currently unknown. A recent study presents the optical and X-ray long-term evolution of the emission by the super-flare from the red-dwarf star DG CVn undertaken in 2014. In that paper we comment on the context of these observations and on the properties that can be derived through the analysis of them.

  14. Uncertainty analysis in statistical modeling of extreme hydrological events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Xu, Yue-Ping; Booij, Martijn J.; Tong, Yang-Bin

    2010-01-01

    With the increase of both magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events such as drought and flooding, the significance of adequately modeling hydrological extreme events is fully recognized. Estimation of extreme rainfall/flood for various return periods is of prime importance for hydrologi

  15. Solar Decathlon 2005: The Event in Review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moon, S.; Nahan, R.; Warner, C.; Wassmer, M.

    2006-06-01

    Solar Decathlon 2005: The Event in Review is a technical report describing the 2005 Solar Decathlon, an event sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy wherein 18 collegiate teams competed in 10 contests to design, build, and operate an attractive, efficient, entirely solar-powered home. The report gives an overview of the competition, including final results, team strategies, and detailed descriptions the 18 homes.

  16. Pulsar Observations of Extreme Scattering Events

    CERN Document Server

    Coles, W A; Shannon, R M; Hobbs, G; Manchester, R N; You, X P; Bailes, M; Bhat, N D R; Burke-Spolaor, S; Dai, S; Keith, M J; Levin, Y; Oslowski, S; Ravi, V; Reardon, D; Toomey, L; van Straten, W; Wang, J B; Wen, L; Zhu, X J

    2015-01-01

    Extreme scattering events (ESEs) in the interstellar medium (ISM) were first observed in regular flux measurements of compact extragalactic sources. They are characterized by a flux variation over a period of weeks, suggesting the passage of a "diverging plasma lens" across the line of sight. Modeling the refraction of such a lens indicates that the structure size must be of order AU and the electron density of order 10s of cm^{-3}. Similar structures have been observed in measurements of pulsar intensity scintillation and group delay. Here we report observations of two ESEs showing increases in both intensity scintillation and dispersion made with the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array (PPTA). These allow us to make more complete models of the ESE, including an estimate of the "outer-scale" of the turbulence in the plasma lens. These observations show clearly that the ESE structure is fully turbulent on an AU scale. They provide some support for the idea that the structures are extended along the line of sight, such...

  17. Space Weather and the Ground-Level Solar Proton Events of the 23rd Solar Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shea, M. A.; Smart, D. F.

    2012-10-01

    Solar proton events can adversely affect space and ground-based systems. Ground-level events are a subset of solar proton events that have a harder spectrum than average solar proton events and are detectable on Earth's surface by cosmic radiation ionization chambers, muon detectors, and neutron monitors. This paper summarizes the space weather effects associated with ground-level solar proton events during the 23rd solar cycle. These effects include communication and navigation systems, spacecraft electronics and operations, space power systems, manned space missions, and commercial aircraft operations. The major effect of ground-level events that affect manned spacecraft operations is increased radiation exposure. The primary effect on commercial aircraft operations is the loss of high frequency communication and, at extreme polar latitudes, an increase in the radiation exposure above that experienced from the background galactic cosmic radiation. Calculations of the maximum potential aircraft polar route exposure for each ground-level event of the 23rd solar cycle are presented. The space weather effects in October and November 2003 are highlighted together with on-going efforts to utilize cosmic ray neutron monitors to predict high energy solar proton events, thus providing an alert so that system operators can possibly make adjustments to vulnerable spacecraft operations and polar aircraft routes.

  18. Extreme sport participation as serious leisure : athletes' overall satisfaction with the event extreme sports week

    OpenAIRE

    Rumba, Maira

    2012-01-01

    This study is concentrating on the extreme sport athletes who have participated in the spectacular event Extreme Sport Week (Mykletun, 2009; Ekstremsportveko, 2012) in Voss, Norway 2011. In particular, it addresses the extreme sport athletes’ involvement with the sport, their career development, and their experiences during the event. The aim is to investigate extreme sport athletes satisfaction with the event based on Pine and Gilmore’s (1999) experience four-realm model and Getz’s and Ander...

  19. The Solar Extreme Ultraviolet Monitor for MAVEN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eparvier, F. G.; Chamberlin, P. C.; Woods, T. N.; Thiemann, E. M. B.

    2015-12-01

    The Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) monitor is an instrument on the NASA Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) mission, designed to measure the variability of the solar soft x-rays and EUV irradiance at Mars. The solar output in this wavelength range is a primary energy input to the Mars atmosphere and a driver for the processes leading to atmospheric escape. The MAVEN EUV monitor consists of three broadband radiometers. The radiometers consist of silicon photodiodes with different bandpass-limiting filters for each channel. The filters for the radiometers are: Channel A: thin foil C/Al/Nb/C for 0.1-3 nm and 17-22 nm, Channel B: thin foil C/Al/Ti/C for 0.1-7 nm, and Channel C: interference filter for 121-122 nm. A fourth, covered photodiode is used to monitor variations in dark signal due to temperature and radiation background changes. The three science channels will monitor emissions from the highly variable corona and transition region of the solar atmosphere. The EUV monitor is mounted on the top deck of the MAVEN spacecraft and is pointed at the Sun for most of its orbit around Mars. The measurement cadence is 1-second. The broadband irradiances can be used to monitor the most rapid changes in solar irradiance due to flares. In combination with time-interpolated observations at Earth of slower varying solar spectral emissions, the broadband MAVEN EUV monitor measurements will also be used in a spectral irradiance model to generate the full EUV spectrum at Mars from 0 to 190 nm in 1-nm bins on a time cadence of 1-minute and daily averages.

  20. Spatiotemporal Chaos Induces Extreme Events in an Extended Microcavity Laser

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selmi, F.; Coulibaly, S.; Loghmari, Z.; Sagnes, I.; Beaudoin, G.; Clerc, M. G.; Barbay, S.

    2016-01-01

    Extreme events such as rogue waves in optics and fluids are often associated with the merging dynamics of coherent structures. We present experimental and numerical results on the physics of extreme event appearance in a spatially extended semiconductor microcavity laser with an intracavity saturable absorber. This system can display deterministic irregular dynamics only, thanks to spatial coupling through diffraction of light. We have identified parameter regions where extreme events are encountered and established the origin of this dynamics in the emergence of deterministic spatiotemporal chaos, through the correspondence between the proportion of extreme events and the dimension of the strange attractor.

  1. Energy Infrastructure and Extreme Events (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wakimoto, R. M.

    2013-12-01

    The country's energy infrastructure is sensitive to the environment, especially extreme events. Increasing global temperatures, intense storms, and space weather have the potential to disrupt energy production and transport. It can also provide new opportunities as illustrated by the opening of the Northwest Passage. The following provides an overview of some of the high impacts of major geophysical events on energy production and transport. Future predictions of hurricanes suggest that we can expect fewer storms but they will be associated with stronger winds and more precipitation. The winds and storm surge accompanying hurricane landfall along the Gulf States has had a major impact on the coastal energy infrastructure and the oil/natural gas platforms. The impact of these surges will increase with predicted sea level rise. Hurricane Katrina caused damage to crude oil pipelines and refineries that reduced oil production by 19% for the year. The disruption that can occur is not necessarily linked with the maximum winds of the tropical storm as recently shown by Hurricane Sandy which was classified as a ';post-tropical cyclone' during landfall. Another intense circulation, the tornado, can also cause power outages and network breaks from high winds that can topple power poles or damage power lines from fallen trees. Fortunately, the Moore tornado, rated EF5, did not have a major impact on the oil and gas infrastructure in Oklahoma. The impact of earthquakes and tsunamis on energy was illustrated in Japan in 2011 with the shutdown of the Fukushima Daiichi plant. Other studies have suggested that there are areas in the United States where the energy services are highly vulnerable to major earthquakes that would disrupt electrical and gas networks for extended periods of time. Seismic upgrades to the energy infrastructure would help mitigate the impact. In 1859, a coronal mass ejection triggered a geomagnetic storm that disrupted communication wires around the world

  2. A Fourier analysis of extremal events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Yuwei

    is the extremal periodogram. The extremal periodogram shares numerous asymptotic properties with the periodogram of a linear process in classical time series analysis: the asymptotic distribution of the periodogram ordinates at the Fourier frequencies have a similar form and smoothed versions of the periodogram...

  3. Extreme seawater compositions during Oceanic Anoxic Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, A.; Bottini, C.; Dickson, A. J.; Izon, G. J.; Coe, A. L.

    2012-12-01

    For almost the entire duration of the Phanerozoic, the oceans have remained well oxygenated and highly conducive to the development of animal and plant life. However, there have been relatively brief intervals, known as Oceanic Anoxic Events (OAEs), when a very significant expansion of low-oxygen regions occurred throughout the world's oceans. OAEs were characterised by highly atypical seawater chemistry, as reflected in the chemical and isotopic compositions of contemporaneous sediments and fossil remains. These oxygen-deficient intervals also exerted profound pressures on many marine species as indicated by major changes in species populations and distributions. High-resolution chemical and isotopic data recovered from marine sediments and sedimentary rocks, together with biotic information, provide us with the best means of understanding the significance of OAEs and their place in the evolution of the Earth system. We present new Mo- and Os-isotope and geochemical data from OAE 1a (early Cretaceous), which help define how this event evolved in relation to the other major environmental parameters - including global warming, continental weathering and Ontong-Java volcanism - of that time. We compare these new observations with published results from other Mesozoic OAEs and the PETM. Recently published Os-isotope data from DSDP site 463 (mid-Pacific) [1] and northern Italy [1, 2] show that the Os budget of the oceans was dominated for a period of c. 880 ka during OAE 1a by the hydrothermal flux of unradiogenic Os from the Ontong-Java province. The observation of identical Os-isotope compositions at these two very distant sites indicates that seawater was well mixed at that time. Over the same interval, the seawater Mo-isotope composition, based upon well-preserved samples from Italy, was persistently atypical, with δ98/95Mo ranging between -0.7 and +0.7 permil [3]. All the samples analysed here accumulated under highly anoxic conditions and contain highly abundant

  4. Fe-rich solar energetic particle events during solar minimum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazur, J. E.; Mason, G. M.; von Rosenvinge, T. T.

    During the first 10 months of WIND observations, we have detected several time periods with energetic particle abundances that are characteristic of impulsive flares: enrichments in the ³He isotope, and in heavy ions compared to the corona. Using the Supra-Thermal through Energetic Particle sensor on WIND, we find that at ∼100 keV/nucleon these events typically arrive in sequences of multiple events when the spacecraft is magnetically connected to an active region at western solar longitudes, preceding the arrival of a high speed solar wind stream. During recurrent high speed solar wind streams with their associated flux enhancements Fe-rich events are seldom seen: almost all of the events occur on days with solar wind speeds ISEE-3.

  5. Enigmatic Solar Wind Disappearance Events – Do We Understand Them?

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Janardhan P.

    2006-06-01

    At the Sun–Earth distance of one astronomical unit (1 AU), the solar wind is known to be strongly supersonic and super Alfvénic with Mach and Alfvén numbers being on average 12 and 9 respectively. Also, solar wind densities (average ∼ 10 cm-3) and velocities (average ∼ 450 km s-1) at 1 AU, are known to be inversely correlated with low velocities having higher than average densities and vice versa. However, on May 11 and 12 1999 the Earth was engulfed by an unusually low density (< 0.1 cm-3) and low velocity (< 350 km s-1) solar wind with an Alfvén Mach number significantly less than 1. This was a unique low-velocity, low-density, sub-Alfvénic solar wind flow which spacecraft observations have shown lasted more than 24 hours. One consequence of this extremely tenuous solar wind was a spectacular expansion of the Earth’s magnetosphere and bow shock. The expanding bow shock was observed by several spacecraft and reached record upstream distances of nearly 60 Earth radii, the lunar orbit. The event was so dramatic that it has come to be known as the solar wind disappearance event. Though extensive studies of this event were made by many authors in the past, it has only been recently shown that the unusual solar wind flows characterizing this event originated from a small coronal hole in the vicinity of a large active region on the Sun. These recent results have put to rest speculation that such events are associated with global phenomenon like the periodic solar polar field reversal that occurs at the maximum of each solar cycle. In this paper we revisit the 11 May 1999 event, look at other disappearance events that have ocurred in the past, examine the reasons why speculations about the association of such events with global phenomena like solar polar field reversals were made and also examine the role of transient coronal holes as a possible solar source for such events.

  6. Observations and Impact Assessments of Extreme Space Weather Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, D. N.

    2007-05-01

    "Space weather" refers to conditions on the Sun, in the solar wind, and in Earth`s magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere. Activity on the Sun such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections can lead to high levels of radiation in space and can cause major magnetic storms at the Earth. Space radiation can come as energetic particles or as electromagnetic emissions. Adverse conditions in the near-Earth space environment can cause disruption of satellite operations, communications, navigation, and electric power distribution grids. This can lead to a variety of socioeconomic losses. Astronauts and airline passengers exposed to high levels of radiation are also at risk. Society`s vulnerability to space weather effects is an issue of increasing concern. We are dependent on technological systems that are becoming more susceptible to space weather disturbances. We also have a permanent human presence in space with the International Space Station and the President and NASA have expressed a desire to expand our human space activities with missions to the moon and Mars. This will make space weather of even greater concern in the future. In this talk I will describe many space weather effects and will describe some of the societal and economic impacts that extreme events have had.

  7. Absorption events associated with solar flares

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    During the upward period of solar cycle 23, the imaging riometer at Zhongshan, Antarctica (geomag. lat. 74.5°S) was used to study the solar proton events and the X-ray solar flares which are associated with the absorption events. In our study, the relationship between the absorption intensity and X-ray flux is found in a power form which is consistent with the theoretical result. The imaging riometer absorption data at Ny-?lesund, Svalbard reconfirm the above relationship. We also argue that only M-class flares can generate a significant daytime absorption.

  8. Solar Eruptive Events (SEE) 2020 Mission Concept

    OpenAIRE

    R. P. Lin; Caspi, A; Krucker, S.; Hudson, H; Hurford, G.; Bandler, S.; Christe, S.; Davila, J.; Dennis, B; Holman, G.; Milligan, R.; Shih, A.Y.; Kahler, S; Kontar, E.; Wiedenbeck, M.

    2013-01-01

    Major solar eruptive events (SEEs), consisting of both a large flare and a near simultaneous large fast coronal mass ejection (CME), are the most powerful explosions and also the most powerful and energetic particle accelerators in the solar system, producing solar energetic particles (SEPs) up to tens of GeV for ions and hundreds of MeV for electrons. The intense fluxes of escaping SEPs are a major hazard for humans in space and for spacecraft. Furthermore, the solar plasma ejected at high s...

  9. Coping with extreme climate events: Institutional flocking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koppen, van C.S.A.; Mol, A.P.J.; Tatenhove, van J.P.M.

    2010-01-01

    The article explores the governance structures that would be needed to cope with extreme and unpredictable climate change. The impacts on the Netherlands of a Gulf Stream collapse in the Northern Atlantic are taken as a case. This hypothetical situation of serious risks and high uncertainties requir

  10. Coping with extreme climate events: Institutional flocking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koppen, van C.S.A.; Mol, A.P.J.; Tatenhove, van J.P.M.

    2010-01-01

    The article explores the governance structures that would be needed to cope with extreme and unpredictable climate change. The impacts on the Netherlands of a Gulf Stream collapse in the Northern Atlantic are taken as a case. This hypothetical situation of serious risks and high uncertainties

  11. Solar Demon: near real-time solar eruptive event detection on SDO/AIA images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kraaikamp, Emil; Verbeeck, Cis

    Solar flares, dimmings and EUV waves have been observed routinely in extreme ultra-violet (EUV) images of the Sun since 1996. These events are closely associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and therefore provide useful information for early space weather alerts. The Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (SDO/AIA) generates such a massive dataset that it becomes impossible to find most of these eruptive events manually. Solar Demon is a set of automatic detection algorithms that attempts to solve this problem by providing both near real-time warnings of eruptive events and a catalog of characterized events. Solar Demon has been designed to detect and characterize dimmings, EUV waves, as well as solar flares in near real-time on SDO/AIA data. The detection modules are running continuously at the Royal Observatory of Belgium on both quick-look data and synoptic science data. The output of Solar Demon can be accessed in near real-time on the Solar Demon website, and includes images, movies, light curves, and the numerical evolution of several parameters. Solar Demon is the result of collaboration between the FP7 projects AFFECTS and COMESEP. Flare detections of Solar Demon are integrated into the COMESEP alert system. Here we present the Solar Demon detection algorithms and their output. We will focus on the algorithm and its operational implementation. Examples of interesting flare, dimming and EUV wave events, and general statistics of the detections made so far during solar cycle 24 will be presented as well.

  12. Extreme events in multilayer, interdependent complex networks and control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yu-Zhong; Huang, Zi-Gang; Zhang, Hai-Feng; Eisenberg, Daniel; Seager, Thomas P.; Lai, Ying-Cheng

    2015-11-01

    We investigate the emergence of extreme events in interdependent networks. We introduce an inter-layer traffic resource competing mechanism to account for the limited capacity associated with distinct network layers. A striking finding is that, when the number of network layers and/or the overlap among the layers are increased, extreme events can emerge in a cascading manner on a global scale. Asymptotically, there are two stable absorption states: a state free of extreme events and a state of full of extreme events, and the transition between them is abrupt. Our results indicate that internal interactions in the multiplex system can yield qualitatively distinct phenomena associated with extreme events that do not occur for independent network layers. An implication is that, e.g., public resource competitions among different service providers can lead to a higher resource requirement than naively expected. We derive an analytical theory to understand the emergence of global-scale extreme events based on the concept of effective betweenness. We also articulate a cost-effective control scheme through increasing the capacity of very few hubs to suppress the cascading process of extreme events so as to protect the entire multi-layer infrastructure against global-scale breakdown.

  13. A Classification Scheme for the Strongest Solar Particle Events: Identifying Carrington Events with Modern Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, C. T.; Luhmann, Janet G.; Mason, Glenn; Galvin, Antoinette; Klassen, Andreas; Freed, A.; Von Rosenvinge, T. T.; Mewaldt, Richard

    The Carrington Event of 1859 is the classic extreme solar outburst. It arrived at Earth in 18 hours and caused strong geomagnetic effects including strong prolonged induced currents. On July 23, 2012 a probably comparable event occurred on the Sun but aimed at STEREO A, 120° away from the Earth- Sun line. The sudden pressure enhancement in the plasma arrives after 18 hours, like the Carrington event, and had the potential to cause large geomagnetic disturbances if it had encountered the Earth’s magnetosphere. We compare these two events with other extreme pre-space age and space-age events. In a plot of arrival time versus angle from the flare site, the extreme events fall into three families, indicating three distinct expansion speeds. The Carrington event lies in the middle class together with the July 23, 2012 event, while the August 1972 event lies in the fastest event class. The strong space-age events appear to reach a streaming limit in the energetic particle flux that may limit the maximum flux until the compression front arrives. The compression front, which travels ahead of the magnetic ICME, is not always a fast shock but can sometimes be a slow shock. We interpret this as due to the energetic particles forming a very hot plasma that allows the 2000 km/s speed of the outflow to be subsonic. Strong plasma waves accompany the energetic particles that are capable of scattering the particles. These waves can be both right handed and left handed at different times during the solar particle event. The STEREO A data provide an excellent means of studying how these very high fluxes are accelerated and transported through interplanetary space.

  14. Extreme events in excitable systems and mechanisms of their generation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ansmann, Gerrit; Karnatak, Rajat; Lehnertz, Klaus; Feudel, Ulrike

    2013-11-01

    We study deterministic systems, composed of excitable units of FitzHugh-Nagumo type, that are capable of self-generating and self-terminating strong deviations from their regular dynamics without the influence of noise or parameter change. These deviations are rare, short-lasting, and recurrent and can therefore be regarded as extreme events. Employing a range of methods we analyze dynamical properties of the systems, identifying features in the systems' dynamics that may qualify as precursors to extreme events. We investigate these features and elucidate mechanisms that may be responsible for the generation of the extreme events.

  15. General Resilience to Cope with Extreme Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian Walker

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Resilience to specified kinds of disasters is an active area of research and practice. However, rare or unprecedented disturbances that are unusually intense or extensive require a more broad-spectrum type of resilience. General resilience is the capacity of social-ecological systems to adapt or transform in response to unfamiliar, unexpected and extreme shocks. Conditions that enable general resilience include diversity, modularity, openness, reserves, feedbacks, nestedness, monitoring, leadership, and trust. Processes for building general resilience are an emerging and crucially important area of research.

  16. THE IMPACT OF EXTREME RISK EVENTS ON THE ECONOMY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ionela-Daniela GĂITAN

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper I wanted to highlight the impact of extreme risk events on the economy. The issue that I will approach in this paper is one of great importance, taking into account that extreme risk events that occur are  different  and are becoming more frequent  and harder to  control.  The quickly  development  of  these eventsrequires the implementation of a suitable risk management system. The complexity of this issue involves different approaches that can be interrelated in: computer science, mathematics, risk management, crisis management, andmodeling and simulation of extreme risk events. Natural disasters are rare events, but when they occur are causing a huge damage and an adequate management is necessary to return to a state of normality in a short time. To achieve our goal, in the first part of the paper, we presented the problems that an extreme risk event causes in a country when they occur. In the last part of the paper I presented analytical, statistical and econometric methods used in analysis of the impact on the economy of extreme risk events. Natural  disasters,  which  are  extreme  risk  events,  rarely  produce,  but  when  they  occur  causing  hugedamage and an adequate management is necessary to return to a state of normality in a short time.

  17. Crop Diversiifcation in Coping with Extreme Weather Events in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HUANG Ji-kun; JIANG Jing; WANG Jin-xia; HOU Ling-ling

    2014-01-01

    Apart from the long-term effects of climate change, the frequency and severity of extreme weather events have been increasing. Given the risks posed by climate change, particularly the changes in extreme weather events, the question of how to adapt to these changes and mitigate their negative impacts has received great attention from policy makers. The overall goals of this study are to examine whether farmers adapt to extreme weather events through crop diversiifcation and which factors inlfuence farmers’ decisions on crop diversiifcation against extreme weather events in China. To limit the scope of this study, we focus on drought and lfood events only. Based on a unique large-scale household survey in nine provinces, this study ifnds that farmers respond to extreme weather events by increasing crop diversiifcation. Their decision to diversify crops is significantly influenced by their experiences of extreme weather events in the previous year. Such results are understandable because farmers’ behaviors are normally based on their expectations. Moreover, household characteristics also affect farmers’ decisions on crop diversiifcation strategy, and their effects differ by farmers’ age and gender. This paper concludes with several policy implications.

  18. Extreme water-related weather events and waterborne disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cann, K F; Thomas, D Rh; Salmon, R L; Wyn-Jones, A P; Kay, D

    2013-04-01

    Global climate change is expected to affect the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme water-related weather events such as excessive precipitation, floods, and drought. We conducted a systematic review to examine waterborne outbreaks following such events and explored their distribution between the different types of extreme water-related weather events. Four medical and meteorological databases (Medline, Embase, GeoRef, PubMed) and a global electronic reporting system (ProMED) were searched, from 1910 to 2010. Eighty-seven waterborne outbreaks involving extreme water-related weather events were identified and included, alongside 235 ProMED reports. Heavy rainfall and flooding were the most common events preceding outbreaks associated with extreme weather and were reported in 55·2% and 52·9% of accounts, respectively. The most common pathogens reported in these outbreaks were Vibrio spp. (21·6%) and Leptospira spp. (12·7%). Outbreaks following extreme water-related weather events were often the result of contamination of the drinking-water supply (53·7%). Differences in reporting of outbreaks were seen between the scientific literature and ProMED. Extreme water-related weather events represent a risk to public health in both developed and developing countries, but impact will be disproportionate and likely to compound existing health disparities.

  19. Sovereign Default Analysis through Extreme Events Identification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vasile George MARICA

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates contagion in international credit markets through the use of a novel jump detection technique proposed by Chan and Maheuin (2002. This econometrical methodology is preferred because it is non-linear by definition and not a subject to volatility bias. Also, the identified jumps in CDS premiums are considered as outliers positioned beyond any stochastic movement that can and is already modelled through well-known linear analysis. Though contagion is hard to define, we show that extreme discrete movements in default probabilities inferred from CDS premiums can lead to sound economic conclusions about the risk profile of sovereign nations in international bond markets. We find evidence of investor sentiment clustering for countries with unstable political regimes or that are engaged in armed conflict. Countries that have in their recent history faced currency or financial crises are less vulnerable to external unexpected shocks. First we present a brief history of sovereign defaults with an emphasis on their increased frequency and geographical reach, as financial markets become more and more integrated. We then pass to a literature review of the most important definitions for contagion, and discuss what quantitative methods are available to detect the presence of contagion. The paper continues with the details for the methodology of jump detection through non-linear modelling and its use in the field of contagion identification. In the last sections we present the estimation results for simultaneous jumps between emerging markets CDS and draw conclusions on the difference of behavior in times of extreme movement versus tranquil periods.

  20. Understanding Extreme Spanish Coastal Flood Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diez, J. Javier; Esteban, M. Dolores; Silvestre, J. Manuel

    2013-04-01

    The Santa Irene flood event, at the end of October 1982, is one of the most dramatically widely reported flood events in Spain. Its renown is mainly due to the collapse of the Tous dam, but its main message is to be the paradigm of the incidence of the maritime/littoral weather and its temporal sea level rise by storm surge accompanying rain process on the coastal plains inland floods. Looking at damages the presentation analyzes the adapted measures from the point of view of the aims of the FP7 SMARTeST Project related to the Flood Resilience improvement in urban areas through looking for Technologies, Systems and Tools an appropriate "road to de market". The event was due to the meteorological phenomenon known as "gota fría" (cold drop), a relatively frequent and intense rainy phenomenon affecting one or more basins on the Iberian Peninsula, particularly on the Spanish east to southeast inlands and coasts. There are some circumstances that can easily come together to unleash the cold drop there: cold and dry polar air masses coming onto the whole Iberian Peninsula and the north of Africa, high sea water temperatures, and low atmospheric pressure (cyclone) areas in the western Mediterranean basin; these circumstances are quite common during the autumn season there, and, as it happens, in other places around the world (East/Southeast Africa). Their occurrence, however shows a great space-temporal variability (in a similar way to hurricanes, on Caribbean and western North-Atlantic areas, or to typhoons do). As a matter of fact, all of these equivalent though different phenomena may have different magnitude each time. An overview of the very main events since 11th century in the East to Southeast areas in Spain is shown in the presentation, looking for relation with climatic conditions and Climate changes on one hand, and with geomorphologic and geotechnical conditions on the other It also describes the results of a detailed analysis and reflection about this cold

  1. Public perceptions of climate change and extreme weather events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruine de Bruin, W.; Dessai, S.; Morgan, G.; Taylor, A.; Wong-Parodi, G.

    2013-12-01

    Climate experts face a serious communication challenge. Public debate about climate change continues, even though at the same time people seem to complain about extreme weather events becoming increasingly common. As compared to the abstract concept of ';climate change,' (changes in) extreme weather events are indeed easier to perceive, more vivid, and personally relevant. Public perception research in different countries has suggested that people commonly expect that climate change will lead to increases in temperature, and that unseasonably warm weather is likely to be interpreted as evidence of climate change. However, relatively little is known about whether public concerns about climate change may also be driven by changes in other types of extreme weather events, such as exceptional amounts of precipitation or flooding. We therefore examined how perceptions of and personal experiences with changes in these specific weather events are related to public concerns about climate change. In this presentation, we will discuss findings from two large public perception surveys conducted in flood-prone Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (US) and with a national sample in the UK, where extreme flooding has recently occurred across the country. Participants completed questions about their perceptions of and experiences with specific extreme weather events, and their beliefs about climate change. We then conducted linear regressions to predict individual differences in climate-change beliefs, using perceptions of and experiences with specific extreme weather events as predictors, while controlling for demographic characteristics. The US study found that people (a) perceive flood chances to be increasing over the decades, (b) believe climate change to play a role in increases in future flood chances, and (c) would interpret future increases in flooding as evidence for climate change. The UK study found that (a) UK residents are more likely to perceive increases in ';wet' events such

  2. Measuring the effects of extreme weather events on yields

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.P. Powell

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Extreme weather events are expected to increase worldwide, therefore, anticipating and calculating their effects on crop yields is important for topics ranging from food security to the economic viability of biomass products. Given the local nature of weather, particularly precipitation, effects are best measured at a local level. This paper analyzes weather events at the level of the farm for a specific crop, winter wheat. Once it has been established that extreme events are expected to continue occurring at historically high levels for farming locations throughout the Netherlands, the effects of those events on wheat yields are estimated while controlling for the other major input factors affecting yields. Econometric techniques are applied to an unbalanced panel data set of 334 farms for a period of up to 12 years. Analyzes show that the number of days with extreme high temperatures in Dutch wheat growing regions has significantly increased since the early 1900s, while the number of extreme low temperature events has fallen over that same period. The effects of weather events on wheat yields were found to be time specific in that the week in which an event occurred determined its effect on yields. High temperature events and precipitation events were found to significantly decrease yields.

  3. Extreme event statistics in a drifting Markov chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kindermann, Farina; Hohmann, Michael; Lausch, Tobias; Mayer, Daniel; Schmidt, Felix; Widera, Artur

    2017-07-01

    We analyze extreme event statistics of experimentally realized Markov chains with various drifts. Our Markov chains are individual trajectories of a single atom diffusing in a one-dimensional periodic potential. Based on more than 500 individual atomic traces we verify the applicability of the Sparre Andersen theorem to our system despite the presence of a drift. We present detailed analysis of four different rare-event statistics for our system: the distributions of extreme values, of record values, of extreme value occurrence in the chain, and of the number of records in the chain. We observe that, for our data, the shape of the extreme event distributions is dominated by the underlying exponential distance distribution extracted from the atomic traces. Furthermore, we find that even small drifts influence the statistics of extreme events and record values, which is supported by numerical simulations, and we identify cases in which the drift can be determined without information about the underlying random variable distributions. Our results facilitate the use of extreme event statistics as a signal for small drifts in correlated trajectories.

  4. Large gradual solar energetic particle events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desai, Mihir; Giacalone, Joe

    2016-12-01

    Solar energetic particles, or SEPs, from suprathermal (few keV) up to relativistic (˜ few GeV) energies are accelerated near the Sun in at least two ways: (1) by magnetic reconnection-driven processes during solar flares resulting in impulsive SEPs, and (2) at fast coronal-mass-ejection-driven shock waves that produce large gradual SEP events. Large gradual SEP events are of particular interest because the accompanying high-energy ({>}10s MeV) protons pose serious radiation threats to human explorers living and working beyond low-Earth orbit and to technological assets such as communications and scientific satellites in space. However, a complete understanding of these large SEP events has eluded us primarily because their properties, as observed in Earth orbit, are smeared due to mixing and contributions from many important physical effects. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the current state of knowledge of these important phenomena, and summarizes some of the key questions that will be addressed by two upcoming missions—NASA’s Solar Probe Plus and ESA’s Solar Orbiter. Both of these missions are designed to directly and repeatedly sample the near-Sun environments where interplanetary scattering and transport effects are significantly reduced, allowing us to discriminate between different acceleration sites and mechanisms and to isolate the contributions of numerous physical processes occurring during large SEP events.

  5. Using Extreme Value Theory for Determining the Probability of Carrington-Like Solar Flares

    CERN Document Server

    Elvidge, Sean

    2016-01-01

    Space weather events can negatively affect satellites, the electricity grid, satellite navigation systems and human health. As a consequence, extreme space weather has been added to the UK and other national risk registers. However, by their very nature, extreme events occur rarely and statistical methods are required to determine the probability of occurrence solar storms. Space weather events can be characterised by a number of natural phenomena such as X-ray (solar) flares, solar energetic particle (SEP) fluxes, coronal mass ejections and various geophysical indices (Dst, Kp, F10.7). Here we use extreme value theory (EVT) to investigate the probability of extreme solar flares. Previous work has suggested that the distribution of solar flares follows a power law. However such an approach can lead to overly "fat-tails" in the probability distribution function and thus to an under estimation of the return time of such events. Using EVT and GOES X-ray flux data we find that the expected 150 year return level i...

  6. On the Probability of Occurrence of Extreme Space Weather Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riley, Pete

    2012-01-01

    By virtue of their rarity, extreme space weather events, such as the Carrington event of 1859, are difficult to study, their rates of occurrence are difficult to estimate, and prediction of a specific future event is virtually impossible. Additionally, events may be extreme relative to one parameter but normal relative to others. In this study, we analyze several measures of the severity of space weather events (flare intensity, coronal mass ejection speeds, Dst, and greater than 30 MeV proton fluences as inferred from nitrate records) to estimate the probability of occurrence of extreme events. By showing that the frequency of occurrence scales as an inverse power of the severity of the event, and assuming that this relationship holds at higher magnitudes, we are able to estimate the probability that an event larger than some criteria will occur within a certain interval of time in the future. For example, the probability of another Carrington event (based on Dst less than - 850 nT) occurring within the next decade is approximately 12%. We also identify and address several limitations with this approach. In particular, we assume time stationarity, and thus, the effects of long-term space climate change are not considered. While this technique cannot be used to predict specific events, it may ultimately be useful for probabilistic forecasting.

  7. On the Probability of Occurrence of Extreme Space Weather Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riley, Pete

    2012-01-01

    By virtue of their rarity, extreme space weather events, such as the Carrington event of 1859, are difficult to study, their rates of occurrence are difficult to estimate, and prediction of a specific future event is virtually impossible. Additionally, events may be extreme relative to one parameter but normal relative to others. In this study, we analyze several measures of the severity of space weather events (flare intensity, coronal mass ejection speeds, Dst, and greater than 30 MeV proton fluences as inferred from nitrate records) to estimate the probability of occurrence of extreme events. By showing that the frequency of occurrence scales as an inverse power of the severity of the event, and assuming that this relationship holds at higher magnitudes, we are able to estimate the probability that an event larger than some criteria will occur within a certain interval of time in the future. For example, the probability of another Carrington event (based on Dst less than - 850 nT) occurring within the next decade is approximately 12%. We also identify and address several limitations with this approach. In particular, we assume time stationarity, and thus, the effects of long-term space climate change are not considered. While this technique cannot be used to predict specific events, it may ultimately be useful for probabilistic forecasting.

  8. Extreme sea-level events in coastal regions

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Unnikrishnan, A.S.

    Simulation, Belur Campus, Bangalore 560 037, India e-mail: uns@cmmacs.ernet.in Extreme sea-level events in coastal regions A recently published report1 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has made an assessment... of the extreme climate events. Their past trends, future projections and vulnerabi- lity and adaptation to such events are discussed in the report. The report was based on the efforts of both the working groups of the IPCC, WG I, which deals with the science...

  9. The National Extreme Events Data and Research Center (NEED)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulledge, J.; Kaiser, D. P.; Wilbanks, T. J.; Boden, T.; Devarakonda, R.

    2014-12-01

    The Climate Change Science Institute at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is establishing the National Extreme Events Data and Research Center (NEED), with the goal of transforming how the United States studies and prepares for extreme weather events in the context of a changing climate. NEED will encourage the myriad, distributed extreme events research communities to move toward the adoption of common practices and will develop a new database compiling global historical data on weather- and climate-related extreme events (e.g., heat waves, droughts, hurricanes, etc.) and related information about impacts, costs, recovery, and available research. Currently, extreme event information is not easy to access and is largely incompatible and inconsistent across web sites. NEED's database development will take into account differences in time frames, spatial scales, treatments of uncertainty, and other parameters and variables, and leverage informatics tools developed at ORNL (i.e., the Metadata Editor [1] and Mercury [2]) to generate standardized, robust documentation for each database along with a web-searchable catalog. In addition, NEED will facilitate convergence on commonly accepted definitions and standards for extreme events data and will enable integrated analyses of coupled threats, such as hurricanes/sea-level rise/flooding and droughts/wildfires. Our goal and vision is that NEED will become the premiere integrated resource for the general study of extreme events. References: [1] Devarakonda, Ranjeet, et al. "OME: Tool for generating and managing metadata to handle BigData." Big Data (Big Data), 2014 IEEE International Conference on. IEEE, 2014. [2] Devarakonda, Ranjeet, et al. "Mercury: reusable metadata management, data discovery and access system." Earth Science Informatics 3.1-2 (2010): 87-94.

  10. Solar energetic particle events in different types of solar wind

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kahler, S. W. [Air Force Research Laboratory, Space Vehicles Directorate, 3550 Aberdeen Avenue, Kirtland AFB, NM 87117 (United States); Vourlidas, A., E-mail: stephen.kahler@kirtland.af.mil [Space Sciences Division, Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC 20375 (United States)

    2014-08-10

    We examine statistically some properties of 96 20 MeV gradual solar energetic proton (SEP) events as a function of three different types of solar wind (SW) as classified by Richardson and Cane. Gradual SEP (E > 10 MeV) events are produced in shocks driven by fast (V ≳ 900 km s{sup –1}) and wide (W > 60°) coronal mass ejections (CMEs). We find no differences among the transient, fast, and slow SW streams for SEP 20 MeV proton event timescales. It has recently been found that the peak intensities Ip of these SEP events scale with the ∼2 MeV proton background intensities, which may be a proxy for the near-Sun shock seed particles. Both the intensities Ip and their 2 MeV backgrounds are significantly enhanced in transient SW compared to those of fast and slow SW streams, and the values of Ip normalized to the 2 MeV backgrounds only weakly correlate with CME V for all SW types. This result implies that forecasts of SEP events could be improved by monitoring both the Sun and the local SW stream properties and that the well known power-law size distributions of Ip may differ between transient and long-lived SW streams. We interpret an observed correlation between CME V and the 2 MeV background for SEP events in transient SW as a manifestation of enhanced solar activity.

  11. Towards a unified study of extreme events using universality concepts and transdisciplinary analysis methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balasis, George; Donner, Reik V.; Donges, Jonathan F.; Radebach, Alexander; Eftaxias, Konstantinos; Kurths, Jürgen

    2013-04-01

    The dynamics of many complex systems is characterized by the same universal principles. In particular, systems which are otherwise quite different in nature show striking similarities in their behavior near tipping points (bifurcations, phase transitions, sudden regime shifts) and associated extreme events. Such critical phenomena are frequently found in diverse fields such as climate, seismology, or financial markets. Notably, the observed similarities include a high degree of organization, persistent behavior, and accelerated energy release, which are common to (among others) phenomena related to geomagnetic variability of the terrestrial magnetosphere (intense magnetic storms), seismic activity (electromagnetic emissions prior to earthquakes), solar-terrestrial physics (solar flares), neurophysiology (epileptic seizures), and socioeconomic systems (stock market crashes). It is an open question whether the spatial and temporal complexity associated with extreme events arises from the system's structural organization (geometry) or from the chaotic behavior inherent to the nonlinear equations governing the dynamics of these phenomena. On the one hand, the presence of scaling laws associated with earthquakes and geomagnetic disturbances suggests understanding these events as generalized phase transitions similar to nucleation and critical phenomena in thermal and magnetic systems. On the other hand, because of the structural organization of the systems (e.g., as complex networks) the associated spatial geometry and/or topology of interactions plays a fundamental role in the emergence of extreme events. Here, a few aspects of the interplay between geometry and dynamics (critical phase transitions) that could result in the emergence of extreme events, which is an open problem, will be discussed.

  12. Geophysical Hazards and Preventive Disaster Management of Extreme Natural Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail-Zadeh, A.; Takeuchi, K.

    2007-12-01

    Geophysical hazard is potentially damaging natural event and/or phenomenon, which may cause the loss of life or injury, property damage, social and economic disruption, or environmental degradation. Extreme natural hazards are a key manifestation of the complex hierarchical nonlinear Earth system. An understanding, accurate modeling and forecasting of the extreme hazards are most important scientific challenges. Several recent extreme natural events (e.g., 2004 Great Indian Ocean Earthquake and Tsunami and the 2005 violent Katrina hurricane) demonstrated strong coupling between solid Earth and ocean, and ocean and atmosphere. These events resulted in great humanitarian tragedies because of a weak preventive disaster management. The less often natural events occur (and the extreme events are rare by definition), the more often the disaster managers postpone the preparedness to the events. The tendency to reduce the funding for preventive disaster management of natural catastrophes is seldom follows the rules of responsible stewardship for future generations neither in developing countries nor in highly developed economies where it must be considered next to malfeasance. Protecting human life and property against earthquake disasters requires an uninterrupted chain of tasks: from (i) understanding of physics of the events, analysis and monitoring, through (ii) interpretation, modeling, hazard assessment, and prediction, to (iii) public awareness, preparedness, and preventive disaster management.

  13. Ozone depletion during solar proton events in solar cycle 21

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcpeters, R. D.; Jackman, C. H.

    1985-01-01

    Ozone profile data from the Solar Backscattered Ultraviolet Instrument on Nimbus 7 from 1979 to the present and clear cases of ozone destruction associated with five sudden proton events (SPEs) on June 7, 1979, August 21, 1979, October 13-14, 1981, July 13, 1982, and December 8, 1982 are found. During the SPE on July 13, 1982, the largest of this solar cycle, no depletion at all at 45 km is observed, but there is a 15 percent ozone depletion at 50 km increasing to 27 percent at 55 km, all at a solar zenith angle of 85 deg. A strong variation of the observed depletion with solar zenith angle is found, with maximum depletion occurring at the largest zenith angles (near 85 deg) decreasing to near zero for angles below about 70 deg. The observed depletion is short lived, disappearing within hours of the end of the SPE.

  14. Extreme events in gross primary production: a characterization across continents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Zscheischler

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate extremes can affect the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, for instance via a reduction of the photosynthetic capacity or alterations of respiratory processes. Yet the dominant regional and seasonal effects of hydrometeorological extremes are still not well documented. Here we quantify and characterize the role of large spatiotemporal extreme events in gross primary production (GPP as triggers of continental anomalies. We also investigate seasonal dynamics of extreme impacts on continental GPP anomalies. We find that the 50 largest positive (increase in uptake and negative extremes (decrease in uptake on each continent can explain most of the continental variation in GPP, which is in line with previous results obtained at the global scale. We show that negative extremes are larger than positive ones and demonstrate that this asymmetry is particularly strong in South America and Europe. Most extremes in GPP start in early summer. Our analysis indicates that the overall impacts and the spatial extents of GPP extremes are power law distributed with exponents that vary little across continents. Moreover, we show that on all continents and for all data sets the spatial extents play a more important role than durations or maximal GPP anomaly when it comes to the overall impact of GPP extremes. An analysis of possible causes implies that across continents most extremes in GPP can best be explained by water scarcity rather than by extreme temperatures. However, for Europe, South America and Oceania we identify also fire as an important driver. Our findings are consistent with remote sensing products. An independent validation against a literature survey on specific extreme events supports our results to a large extent.

  15. The Extreme Climate Index: a novel and multi-hazard index for extreme weather events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucchi, Marco; Petitta, Marcello; Calmanti, Sandro

    2017-04-01

    In this presentation we introduce the Extreme Climate Index (ECI): an objective, multi-hazard index capable of tracking changes in the frequency or magnitude of extreme weather events in African countries, thus indicating that a shift to a new climate regime is underway in a particular area. This index has been developed in the context of XCF (eXtreme Climate Facilities) project lead by ARC (African Risk Capacity, specialised agency of the African Union), and will be used in the payouts triggering mechanism of an insurance programme against risks related to the increase of frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events due to climate regimes' changes. The main hazards covered by ECI will be extreme dry, wet and heat events, with the possibility of adding region-specific risk events such as tropical cyclones for the most vulnerable areas. It will be based on data coming from consistent, sufficiently long, high quality historical records and will be standardized across broad geographical regions, so that extreme events occurring under different climatic regimes in Africa can be comparable. The first step to construct such an index is to define single hazard indicators. In this first study we focused on extreme dry/wet and heat events, using for their description respectively the well-known SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) and an index developed by us, called SHI (Standardized Heat-waves Index). The second step consists in the development of a computational strategy to combine these, and possibly other indices, so that the ECI can describe, by means of a single indicator, different types of climatic extremes. According to the methodology proposed in this paper, the ECI is defined by two statistical components: the ECI intensity, which indicates whether an event is extreme or not; the angular component, which represent the contribution of each hazard to the overall intensity of the index. The ECI can thus be used to identify "extremes" after defining a

  16. Extreme inflow events and synoptic forcing in Sydney catchments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pepler, Acacia S; Rakich, Clinton S, E-mail: a.pepler@bom.gov.a [NSW Climate Services Section, Bureau of Meteorology PO Box 413, Darlinghurst, NSW 1300 (Australia)

    2010-08-15

    The Sydney catchment region encompasses over 16,000km{sup 2}, supplying water to over 4 million inhabitants. However, few studies have investigated the synoptic and climatic influences on inflow in this region, which are crucial for understanding the vulnerability of water supply in a changing climate. This study identifies extremely high and low inflow events between 1960 and 2008 based on catchment averages. The focus of the study is an analysis of the synoptic cause/s of each extreme inflow event. The events are evaluated to identify any trends and also to determine the concurrent significant climatic influences on rainfall over the catchments. Relationships between catchment inflow, rainfall, tropical SST indices, and other influencing factors such as observed wind and temperatures are investigated. Our results show that East Coast Lows and anomalously easterly flow are the drivers of high inflow events, with low inflow events dominated by westerly wind patterns and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation.

  17. Laws of small numbers extremes and rare events

    CERN Document Server

    Falk, Michael; Hüsler, Jürg

    2004-01-01

    Since the publication of the first edition of this seminar book in 1994, the theory and applications of extremes and rare events have enjoyed an enormous and still increasing interest. The intention of the book is to give a mathematically oriented development of the theory of rare events underlying various applications. This characteristic of the book was strengthened in the second edition by incorporating various new results on about 130 additional pages. Part II, which has been added in the second edition, discusses recent developments in multivariate extreme value theory. Particularly notable is a new spectral decomposition of multivariate distributions in univariate ones which makes multivariate questions more accessible in theory and practice. One of the most innovative and fruitful topics during the last decades was the introduction of generalized Pareto distributions in the univariate extreme value theory. Such a statistical modelling of extremes is now systematically developed in the multivariate fram...

  18. Probability distribution analysis of observational extreme events and model evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Q.; Lau, A. K. H.; Fung, J. C. H.; Tsang, K. T.

    2016-12-01

    Earth's surface temperatures were the warmest in 2015 since modern record-keeping began in 1880, according to the latest study. In contrast, a cold weather occurred in many regions of China in January 2016, and brought the first snowfall to Guangzhou, the capital city of Guangdong province in 67 years. To understand the changes of extreme weather events as well as project its future scenarios, this study use statistical models to analyze on multiple climate data. We first use Granger-causality test to identify the attribution of global mean temperature rise and extreme temperature events with CO2 concentration. The four statistical moments (mean, variance, skewness, kurtosis) of daily maximum temperature distribution is investigated on global climate observational, reanalysis (1961-2010) and model data (1961-2100). Furthermore, we introduce a new tail index based on the four moments, which is a more robust index to measure extreme temperatures. Our results show that the CO2 concentration can provide information to the time series of mean and extreme temperature, but not vice versa. Based on our new tail index, we find that other than mean and variance, skewness is an important indicator should be considered to estimate extreme temperature changes and model evaluation. Among the 12 climate model data we investigate, the fourth version of Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) from National Center for Atmospheric Research performs well on the new index we introduce, which indicate the model have a substantial capability to project the future changes of extreme temperature in the 21st century. The method also shows its ability to measure extreme precipitation/ drought events. In the future we will introduce a new diagram to systematically evaluate the performance of the four statistical moments in climate model output, moreover, the human and economic impacts of extreme weather events will also be conducted.

  19. Analysis of cumulus solar irradiance reflectance (CSIR) events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laird, John L.; Harshvardhan

    Clouds are extremely important with regard to the transfer of solar radiation at Earth's surface. This study investigates Cumulus Solar Irradiance Reflection (CSIR) using ground-based pyranometers. CSIR events are short-term increases in solar radiation observed at the surface as a result of reflection off the sides of convective clouds. When Sun-cloud observer geometry is favorable, these occurrences produce characteristic spikes in the pyranometer traces and solar irradiance values may exceed expected clear-sky values. Ultraviolet CSIR events were investigated during the summer of 1995 using UVA and UVB pyranometers. Observed data were compared to clear-sky curves which were generated using a third degree polynomial best-fit line technique. Periods during which the observed data exceeded this clear-sky curve were identified as CSIR events. The magnitude of a CSIR event was determined by two different quantitative calculations. The MAC (magnitude above clear-sky) is an absolute measure of the difference between the observed and clear-sky irradiances. Maximum MAC values of 3.4 Win -2 and 0.0169 Wm -2 were observed at the UV-A and UV-B wavelengths, respectively. The second calculation determined the percentage above clear-sky (PAC) which indicated the relative magnitude of a CSIR event. Maximum UV-A and UV-B PAC magnitudes of 10.1% and 7.8%, respectively, were observed during the study. Also of interest was the duration of the CSIR events which is a function of Sun-cloud-sensor geometry and the speed of cloud propagation over the measuring site. In both the UV-A and UV-B wavelengths, significant CSIR durations of up to 30 minutes were observed. C 1997 Elsevier Science B.V.

  20. Extreme cyclone events in the Arctic: Wintertime variability and trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rinke, A.; Maturilli, M.; Graham, R. M.; Matthes, H.; Handorf, D.; Cohen, L.; Hudson, S. R.; Moore, J. C.

    2017-09-01

    Typically 20-40 extreme cyclone events (sometimes called ‘weather bombs’) occur in the Arctic North Atlantic per winter season, with an increasing trend of 6 events/decade over 1979-2015, according to 6 hourly station data from Ny-Ålesund. This increased frequency of extreme cyclones is consistent with observed significant winter warming, indicating that the meridional heat and moisture transport they bring is a factor in rising temperatures in the region. The winter trend in extreme cyclones is dominated by a positive monthly trend of about 3-4 events/decade in November-December, due mainly to an increasing persistence of extreme cyclone events. A negative trend in January opposes this, while there is no significant trend in February. We relate the regional patterns of the trend in extreme cyclones to anomalously low sea-ice conditions in recent years, together with associated large-scale atmospheric circulation changes such as ‘blockinglike’ circulation patterns (e.g. Scandinavian blocking in December and Ural blocking during January-February).

  1. HAWC and Solar Energetic Transient Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lara, A.; Ryan, J. M.

    2013-12-01

    The High Altitude Water Cherenkov (HAWC) observatory is being constructed at the volcano Sierra Negra (4100 m a.s.l.) in Mexico. HAWC's primary purpose is the study of both galactic and extra-galactic sources of high energy gamma rays. The HAWC instrument will consist of 300 large water Cherenkov detectors whose counting rate will be sensitive to cosmic rays with energies above the geomagnetic cutoff of the site ( ˜ 8 GV). In particular, HAWC will detect solar energetic particles known as Ground Level Enhancements (GLEs), and the effect of Coronal Mass Ejections on the galactic cosmic rays, known as Forbush Decreases (FDs). The Milagro experiment, the HAWC predecessor, successfully observed GLEs and the HAWC engineering array "VAMOS" already observed a FD. HAWC will be sensitive to γ rays and neutrons produced during large solar flares. In this work, we present the instrument and discuss its capability to observe solar energetic events. i. e., flares and CMEs.

  2. Multispacecraft observations of the terrestrial bow shock and magnetopause during extreme solar wind disturbances

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tatrallyay, M.; Erdos, G.; Nemeth, Z.

    2012-01-01

    Three events are discussed from the declining phase of the last solar cycle when the magnetopause and/or the bow shock were observed unusually close to the Earth due to major interplanetary disturbances. The observed extreme locations of the discontinuities are compared with the predictions of th...

  3. Absolute, Extreme-Ultraviolet, Solar Spectral Irradiance Monitor (AESSIM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huber, Martin C. E.; Smith, Peter L.; Parkinson, W. H.; Kuehne, M.; Kock, M.

    1988-01-01

    AESSIM, the Absolute, Extreme-Ultraviolet, Solar Spectral Irradiance Monitor, is designed to measure the absolute solar spectral irradiance at extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) wavelengths. The data are required for studies of the processes that occur in the earth's upper atmosphere and for predictions of atmospheric drag on space vehicles. AESSIM is comprised of sun-pointed spectrometers and newly-developed, secondary standards of spectral irradiance for the EUV. Use of the in-orbit standard sources will eliminate the uncertainties caused by changes in spectrometer efficiency that have plagued all previous measurements of the solar spectral EUV flux.

  4. Extreme weather and climate events with ecological relevance: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ummenhofer, Caroline C; Meehl, Gerald A

    2017-06-19

    Robust evidence exists that certain extreme weather and climate events, especially daily temperature and precipitation extremes, have changed in regard to intensity and frequency over recent decades. These changes have been linked to human-induced climate change, while the degree to which climate change impacts an individual extreme climate event (ECE) is more difficult to quantify. Rapid progress in event attribution has recently been made through improved understanding of observed and simulated climate variability, methods for event attribution and advances in numerical modelling. Attribution for extreme temperature events is stronger compared with other event types, notably those related to the hydrological cycle. Recent advances in the understanding of ECEs, both in observations and their representation in state-of-the-art climate models, open new opportunities for assessing their effect on human and natural systems. Improved spatial resolution in global climate models and advances in statistical and dynamical downscaling now provide climatic information at appropriate spatial and temporal scales. Together with the continued development of Earth System Models that simulate biogeochemical cycles and interactions with the biosphere at increasing complexity, these make it possible to develop a mechanistic understanding of how ECEs affect biological processes, ecosystem functioning and adaptation capabilities. Limitations in the observational network, both for physical climate system parameters and even more so for long-term ecological monitoring, have hampered progress in understanding bio-physical interactions across a range of scales. New opportunities for assessing how ECEs modulate ecosystem structure and functioning arise from better scientific understanding of ECEs coupled with technological advances in observing systems and instrumentation.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events

  5. EERE Showcase Event (Solar Decathlon 2015)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tolles, Eric [Orange County Great Park Corporation, Irvine, CA (United States)

    2016-04-15

    The goal of the Orange County Great Park Corporation (Great Park) is to successfully host the U.S. Department of Energy Solar Decathlon 2015. In furtherance of that goal, tasks to be performed within the current reporting period include the following: Task 1.0 Arrange Site Team Visits for January 2015 The Great Park arranged appropriate meeting space for the site team visits over a three-day period, January 8, 2015 through January 10, 2015. Instead of a meeting in Hanger 244, the DOE requested a different meeting space. The working team met in the Operations offices on January 8th. The student teams were welcomed at the City of Irvine’s Lakeview Senior Center on January 9th, and came back on January 10th for breakout sessions. Task 2.0 Outreach Activities The following outreach activities related to the U.S. Department of Energy Solar Decathlon 2015 occurred during and prior to the event: • Promoted the return of the Solar Decathlon 2015 on the City’s website. (cityofirvine.org) • Promoted the return of the Solar Decathlon 2015 through the City’s and Great Park’s social media channels, including Facebook and Twitter. (facebook.com/cityofirvine, facebook.com/orangecountygreatpark, twitter.com/City_of_Irvine, twitter.com/ocgreatpark) • Promoted the return of the Solar Decathlon 2015 and student visit through a City Council Announcement. • Worked to set-up meetings between the U.S. Department of Energy team and potential donors/key stakeholders in Irvine. • Began ICTV filming and coverage of the Solar Decathlon 2015 teams. This includes student team interviews, interview with Richard King and b-roll footage. • Facilitated an interview with Sarah Farrar and the Orange County Register during the recent student visit in January • Information in May was provided to Irvine Unified School District and Tustin Unified School District promoting the three Education Days that the DOE will host during the event. More DOE information is due in August, which

  6. Attribution of Extreme Heat Event Using a Seasonal Forecast Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Guomin; Hope, Pandora; Lim, Eun-Pa; Hendon, Harry; Arblaster, Julie

    2017-04-01

    Here we present a method for the attribution of extreme climate events using an initialised climate prediction system to attribute the degree of influence from increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) on an extreme event. The initial-value nature of our method allows little time for the growth of model-driven biases, while allowing the full coupled response of the ocean-atmosphere-land system. To illustrate the use of this method, we attribute the causes of two recent month long record heat events that occurred in October 2014 and 2015 over Australia. The events were forecast twice, one initialised with real world analysed ocean-land-atmosphere states and current CO2 concentration and another with altered ocean-land-atmosphere states corresponding to a counterfactual world with low CO2. We find that relative to the climatology with CO2 level of 1960, at least half of the heat anomaly forecasted across Australia in the two events can be attributed to global warming associated with increased CO2. Additional sensitivity experiments were conducted to assess the impact of the internal climate drivers on the events. The sensitivity experiment results suggest that the atmospheric circulation anomalies played a more important role than the direct impact from the ocean in promoting extreme heat across Australia.

  7. Impacts of Extreme Events on Human Health. Chapter 4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Jesse E.; Herring, Stephanie C.; Jantarasami, Lesley; Adrianopoli, Carl; Benedict, Kaitlin; Conlon, Kathryn; Escobar, Vanessa; Hess, Jeremy; Luvall, Jeffrey; Garcia-Pando, Carlos Perez; Quattrochi, Dale; Runkle, Jennifer; Schreck, Carl J., III

    2016-01-01

    Increased Exposure to Extreme Events Key Finding 1: Health impacts associated with climate-related changes in exposure to extreme events include death, injury, or illness; exacerbation of underlying medical conditions; and adverse effects on mental health[High Confidence]. Climate change will increase exposure risk in some regions of the United States due to projected increases in the frequency and/or intensity of drought, wildfires, and flooding related to extreme precipitation and hurricanes [Medium Confidence].Disruption of Essential Infrastructure Key Finding 2: Many types of extreme events related to climate change cause disruption of infrastructure, including power, water, transportation, and communication systems, that are essential to maintaining access to health care and emergency response services and safeguarding human health [High Confidence].Vulnerability to Coastal Flooding Key Finding 3: Coastal populations with greater vulnerability to health impacts from coastal flooding include persons with disabilities or other access and functional needs, certain populations of color, older adults, pregnant women and children, low-income populations, and some occupational groups [High Confidence].Climate change will increase exposure risk to coastal flooding due to increases in extreme precipitation and in hurricane intensity and rainfall rates, as well as sea level rise and the resulting increases in storm surge.

  8. The Integrated periodogram of a dependent extremal event sequence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mikosch, Thomas Valentin; Zhao, Yuwei

    2015-01-01

    We investigate the asymptotic properties of the integrated periodogram calculated from a sequence of indicator functions of dependent extremal events. An event in Euclidean space is extreme if it occurs far away from the origin. We use a regular variation condition on the underlying stationary.......i.d. case a Brownian bridge appears. In the general case, we propose a stationary bootstrap procedure for approximating the distribution of the limiting process. The developed theory can be used to construct classical goodness-of-fit tests such as the Grenander–Rosenblatt and Cramér–von Mises tests which...... are based only on the extremes in the sample. We apply the test statistics to simulated and real-life data....

  9. What is the right way to talk about extreme events?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobel, A. H.

    2013-12-01

    Extreme weather events draw the attention of the public. By demonstrating the vulnerability of human society to climate, extreme events can cause nonscientists -government leaders as well as the broader population - to take the danger posed by anthropogenic global warming more seriously than they otherwise might. An extreme event that draws media attention can become a 'teachable moment'. But extreme events are difficult to talk about in a way that honors both the strengths and weaknesses of the underlying science. No single event can be attributed to climate change, and some types of events are not even clearly influenced by it (or not in any ways our science can yet demonstrate). Strong, media-friendly statements that closely connect specific events to climate - designed to make best use of the moment's teachability - can easily overstate the case. This will raise the hackles of one's colleagues, at a minimum, and at worst, may damage the credibility of the field more broadly. Yet talking too much about the uncertainties runs the risk of understating the basic truth that global warming is real and dangerous, and may lend inadvertent support to anti-scientific denialism. I will discuss this tension in the context of my own experiences in the media after 'Superstorm' Sandy. I will address arguments I have heard, from social scientists and media consultants, to the effect that climate scientists should adopt communications strategies that lead to stronger, more media-friendly statements, and learn to suppress the tendency, bred into us during our scientific training, to emphasize the uncertainties.

  10. Detrimental Effects of Extreme Solar Activity on Life on Earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Airapetian, Vladimir; Glocer, Alex; Jackman, Charles

    2015-07-01

    Solar Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), the most energetic eruptions in the Solar System, represent large-scale disturbances forming with the solar corona and are associated with solar flares and Solar Energetic Particles (SEP) events. Current Kepler data from solar-like stars suggest that the frequency of occurrence of energetic flares and associated CMEs from the Sun can be as high as 1 per 1500 years. What effects would CME and associated SEPs have on Earth's habitability? We have performed a three-dimensional time-dependent global magnetohydrodynamic simulation of the magnetic interaction of such a CME cloud with the Earth's magnetosphere. We calculated the global structure of the perturbed magnetosphere and derive the latitude of the open-closed magnetic field boundary. We used a 2D GSFC atmospheric code to calculate the efficiency of ozone depletion in the Earth's atmosphere due to SEP events and its effects on our society and life on Earth.

  11. Size Distributions of Solar Flares and Solar Energetic Particle Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cliver, E. W.; Ling, A. G.; Belov, A.; Yashiro, S.

    2012-01-01

    We suggest that the flatter size distribution of solar energetic proton (SEP) events relative to that of flare soft X-ray (SXR) events is primarily due to the fact that SEP flares are an energetic subset of all flares. Flares associated with gradual SEP events are characteristically accompanied by fast (much > 1000 km/s) coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that drive coronal/interplanetary shock waves. For the 1996-2005 interval, the slopes (alpha values) of power-law size distributions of the peak 1-8 Angs fluxes of SXR flares associated with (a) >10 MeV SEP events (with peak fluxes much > 1 pr/sq cm/s/sr) and (b) fast CMEs were approx 1.3-1.4 compared to approx 1.2 for the peak proton fluxes of >10 MeV SEP events and approx 2 for the peak 1-8 Angs fluxes of all SXR flares. The difference of approx 0.15 between the slopes of the distributions of SEP events and SEP SXR flares is consistent with the observed variation of SEP event peak flux with SXR peak flux.

  12. Multispacecraft observations of the terrestrial bow shock and magnetopause during extreme solar wind disturbances

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tatrallyay, M.; Erdos, G.; Nemeth, Z.

    2012-01-01

    by the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) component transverse to the solar wind flow. The observed magnetopause crossings could be predicted with a reasonable accuracy (0.1-0.2 RE) by one of the presented models at least. For geosynchronous magnetopause crossings observed by the GOES satellites, (1) the new model...... provided the best predictions when the IMF was extremely large having a large negative Bz component, and (2) the predictions of the model of Shue et al. (1998) agreed best with the observations when the solar wind dynamic pressure was extremely large. The magnetopause crossings close to the cusp observed......Three events are discussed from the declining phase of the last solar cycle when the magnetopause and/or the bow shock were observed unusually close to the Earth due to major interplanetary disturbances. The observed extreme locations of the discontinuities are compared with the predictions...

  13. Multi-wavelength Analysis to Solar Corona Heating Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xu; Ji, Hai-sheng; Li, Hao-Chuan

    2015-01-01

    With the advent and successful operation of the 1.6 m aperture New Solar Telescope of Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO/NST), solar observation has entered the era of high resolution better than 0.1". This permits us to carry out the case studies of single coronal heating events, to provide the original high-resolution observational evidence for finally solving the problem of coronal heating. By combining the high-resolution Helium I 10830 Å, TiO 7057 Å, and Ha blue-wing (-0.7 Å) imaging data from the NST with the imaging data of extreme ultraviolet and longitudinal magnetic field observed simultaneously by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) and Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board of the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), we have analyzed the evolution of magnetic field in two tiny dynamical events of coronal heating (brightening of magnetic loops) that originate from the solar intergranular lanes. It is found that the footpoints of both brightening magnetic loops were all located in the one side of nearby neutral line of magnetic fields, the footpoints of one magnetic loop were accompanied by the disappearance of a small longitudinal magnetic element and the newly formed connection between two granulations, while the footpoints of another magnetic loop were accompanied by a weak variation of longitudinal magnetic field and the breakdown of a granulation. The observed result tends to suggest that the low-temperature and high-temperature outflows were produced simultaneously by the magnetic reconnection occurred among the solar granulations in the low-layer atmosphere. Meanwhile, it is noted that the high-resolution and high-accuracy polarization measurement of photospheric magnetic field is crucial for finally solving the problem of coronal heating.

  14. Exploring the causes of rare extreme precipitation events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeer, Katharina; Kirchengast, Gottfried

    2015-04-01

    Whereas trends of precipitation changes in general are disparate, an increase of extreme intensities of short precipitation events (daily to sub-hourly scale) with increasing temperatures seems unambiguous (e.g. Trenberth et al., Clim. Res. 47, 123-138, 2011; Berg et al., Nat. Clim. Change 13, 181-185, 2013; Kendon et al., Nat. Clim. Change 4, 570-576, 2014). In probability density functions (PDFs) of observed precipitation intensities that are frequently used in science and practice, high magnitude ("extreme") low frequency ("rare") precipitation events naturally appear at the tails of PDFs. Due to the factual data scarcity, rare extreme events ("REEs") are difficult to come by with statistical analyses. Amongst studies of extreme precipitation, statistical work nevertheless makes a major contribution to the research field. Usually as a first step, a threshold is defined to classify extreme events out of a sample (statistical extreme events, "SEEs"), where methods are affected by the sample size. Such thresholds can be described user-defined or constructed. Subsequently, a PDF is sought, fit and applied (e.g. Yilmaz et al., Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 18, 4065-4076, 2014;, Papalexiou et al., Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 17, 851-862, 2013). While these studies respond to the needs of engeneering practice in e.g. infrastructure design, or trend analysis of precipitation in climate studies, they a) have to ignore REEs because of practical or statistical/data limitations (i.e. left out as "residual risk") and b) tell us little about the underlying processes of the climate and weather system causing REEs. We define REEs in contrast to SEEs as to be of such occurrence that they cannot be sufficiently described nor predicted by means of a regular or fat-tailed PDF. We introduce a working hypothesis assuming that REEs are conditioned and caused by a conjunction of specific circumstances on different scales. We differentiate spatio-temporal circumstances of large

  15. Modeling Extreme Solar Energetic Particle Acceleration with Self-Consistent Wave Generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arthur, A. D.; le Roux, J. A.

    2015-12-01

    Observations of extreme solar energetic particle (SEP) events associated with coronal mass ejection driven shocks have detected particle energies up to a few GeV at 1 AU within the first ~10 minutes to 1 hour of shock acceleration. Whether or not acceleration by a single shock is sufficient in these events or if some combination of multiple shocks or solar flares is required is currently not well understood. Furthermore, the observed onset times of the extreme SEP events place the shock in the corona when the particles escape upstream. We have updated our focused transport theory model that has successfully been applied to the termination shock and traveling interplanetary shocks in the past to investigate extreme SEP acceleration in the solar corona. This model solves the time-dependent Focused Transport Equation including particle preheating due to the cross shock electric field and the divergence, adiabatic compression, and acceleration of the solar wind flow. Diffusive shock acceleration of SEPs is included via the first-order Fermi mechanism for parallel shocks. To investigate the effects of the solar corona on the acceleration of SEPs, we have included an empirical model for the plasma number density, temperature, and velocity. The shock acceleration process becomes highly time-dependent due to the rapid variation of these coronal properties with heliocentric distance. Additionally, particle interaction with MHD wave turbulence is modeled in terms of gyroresonant interactions with parallel propagating Alfven waves. However, previous modeling efforts suggest that the background amplitude of the solar wind turbulence is not sufficient to accelerate SEPs to extreme energies over the short time scales observed. To account for this, we have included the transport and self-consistent amplification of MHD waves by the SEPs through wave-particle gyroresonance. We will present the results of this extended model for a single fast quasi-parallel CME driven shock in the

  16. Methodology for assessing probability of extreme hydrologic events coincidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prohaska Stevan

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the presented research is improvement of methodology for probability calculation of coinciding occurrence of historic floods and droughts in the same year. The original procedure was developed in order to determine the occurrence probability of such an extreme historic event. There are two phases in calculation procedure for assessment of both extreme drought and flood occurrence probability in the same year. In the first phase outliers are detected as indicators of extreme events, their return periods are calculated and series' statistics adjusted. In the second phase conditional probabilities are calculated: empirical points are plotted, and both extreme drought and flood occurrence probability in the same year is assessed based on the plot. Outlier detection is performed for the territory of Serbia. Results are shown as maps of regions (basins prone to floods, hydrologic drought, or both. Step-by-step numeric example is given for assessing conditional probability of occurrence of flood and drought for GS Raska on the river Raska. Results of assessment of conditional probability in two more cases are given for combination of extreme flood and 30 day minimum flow.

  17. SOLAR SOURCES OF {sup 3}He-RICH SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS IN SOLAR CYCLE 24

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nitta, Nariaki V. [Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center, Dept/A021S, B/252, 3251 Hanover Street, Palo Alto, CA 94304 (United States); Mason, Glenn M. [Applied Physics Laboratory, Johns Hopkins University, Laurel, MD 20723 (United States); Wang, Linghua [Institute of Space Physics and Applied Technology, Peking University, Beijing 100871 (China); Cohen, Christina M. S. [California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Wiedenbeck, Mark E., E-mail: nitta@lmsal.com, E-mail: glenn.mason@jhuapl.edu, E-mail: wanglhwang@gmail.com, E-mail: cohen@srl.caltech.edu, E-mail: mark.e.wiedenbeck@jpl.nasa.gov [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109 (United States)

    2015-06-20

    Using high-cadence EUV images obtained by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory, we investigate the solar sources of 26 {sup 3}He-rich solar energetic particle events at ≲1 MeV nucleon{sup −1} that were well-observed by the Advanced Composition Explorer during solar cycle 24. Identification of the solar sources is based on the association of {sup 3}He-rich events with type III radio bursts and electron events as observed by Wind. The source locations are further verified in EUV images from the Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory, which provides information on solar activities in the regions not visible from the Earth. Based on AIA observations, {sup 3}He-rich events are not only associated with coronal jets as emphasized in solar cycle 23 studies, but also with more spatially extended eruptions. The properties of the {sup 3}He-rich events do not appear to be strongly correlated with those of the source regions. As in the previous studies, the magnetic connection between the source region and the observer is not always reproduced adequately by the simple potential field source surface model combined with the Parker spiral. Instead, we find a broad longitudinal distribution of the source regions extending well beyond the west limb, with the longitude deviating significantly from that expected from the observed solar wind speed.

  18. Reproducing an extreme flood with uncertain post-event information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuentes-Andino, Diana; Beven, Keith; Halldin, Sven; Xu, Chong-Yu; Reynolds, José Eduardo; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

    2017-07-01

    Studies for the prevention and mitigation of floods require information on discharge and extent of inundation, commonly unavailable or uncertain, especially during extreme events. This study was initiated by the devastating flood in Tegucigalpa, the capital of Honduras, when Hurricane Mitch struck the city. In this study we hypothesized that it is possible to estimate, in a trustworthy way considering large data uncertainties, this extreme 1998 flood discharge and the extent of the inundations that followed from a combination of models and post-event measured data. Post-event data collected in 2000 and 2001 were used to estimate discharge peaks, times of peak, and high-water marks. These data were used in combination with rain data from two gauges to drive and constrain a combination of well-known modelling tools: TOPMODEL, Muskingum-Cunge-Todini routing, and the LISFLOOD-FP hydraulic model. Simulations were performed within the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) uncertainty-analysis framework. The model combination predicted peak discharge, times of peaks, and more than 90 % of the observed high-water marks within the uncertainty bounds of the evaluation data. This allowed an inundation likelihood map to be produced. Observed high-water marks could not be reproduced at a few locations on the floodplain. Identifications of these locations are useful to improve model set-up, model structure, or post-event data-estimation methods. Rainfall data were of central importance in simulating the times of peak and results would be improved by a better spatial assessment of rainfall, e.g. from radar data or a denser rain-gauge network. Our study demonstrated that it was possible, considering the uncertainty in the post-event data, to reasonably reproduce the extreme Mitch flood in Tegucigalpa in spite of no hydrometric gauging during the event. The method proposed here can be part of a Bayesian framework in which more events can be added into the analysis as

  19. Extreme flood events in the Dead Sea basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahlborn, Marieke; Ben Dor, Yoav; Schwab, Markus J.; Neugebauer, Ina; Plessen, Birgit; Tjallingii, Rik; Erel, Yigal; Enzel, Yehouda; Brauer, Achim

    2016-04-01

    The Dead Sea is a hypersaline, terminal lake located within the Dead Sea basin at the lowest continental elevation on Earth (~425 m below mean sea level). Extreme hydro-meteorological events in terms of flash floods occur regularly during the wet season in the Dead Sea basin and adjacent mountain ranges. However, little is known about the impact of these extreme floods on the sedimentary dynamics in the Dead Sea and possible links to long-term climate changes. The trilateral research project PALEX (Paleoclimate in the Eastern Mediterranean Region - Levante: Paleohydrology and Extreme Flood Events) was recently initiated within the framework of the DFG priority program 1006 ICDP (International Continental Scientific Drilling Program) to investigate extreme flood events in the Dead Sea basin during the Late Pleistocene and Holocene. Within the ICDP Dead Sea Deep Drilling Project (DSDDP) the ~455 m long sediment core 5017-1 was recovered from the northern Dead Sea basin. Previously published results (Neugebauer et al., 2014, 2015) have demonstrated the occurrence of extreme flood events represented in the sediments as thick graded detrital layers during Late Holocene dry phases. Based on these results we will apply a comprehensive analytical approach including microfacies analyses, μXRF element scanning, and stable isotope geochemistry to different time intervals of core 5017-1. Particularly, we aim to investigate the structure and composition of detrital layers in order to decipher sediment transport mechanisms and the provenance of the flood-triggered sediments. The overarching goal is to establish a high-resolution extreme flood time series for the Dead Sea basin on the basis of a previously established radiocarbon and U-Th chronology (Torfstein et al., 2015; Neugebauer et al., 2014) and to study a possible link between the frequency and magnitude of extreme flood events and the long-term climate trend. Neugebauer I, Brauer A, Schwab MJ, et al. (2014) Lithology of

  20. Investigation on rainfall extremes events trough a geoadditive model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bocci, C.; Caporali, E.; Petrucci, A.; Rossi, G.

    2012-04-01

    Rainfall can be considered a very important variable, and rainfall extreme events analysis of great concern for the enormous impacts that they may have on everyday life particularly when related to intense rainfalls and floods, and hydraulic risk management. On the catchment area of Arno River in Tuscany, Central Italy, a geoadditive mixed model of rainfall extremes is developed. Most of the territory of Arno River has suffered in the past of many severe hydro-geological events, with high levels of risk due to the vulnerability of a unique artistic and cultural heritage. The area has a complex topography that greatly influences the precipitation regime. The dataset is composed by the time series of the annual maxima of daily rainfall recorded in about 400 rain gauges, spatially distributed over the catchment area of about 8.800 km2. The record period covers mainly the second half of 20th century. The rainfall observations are assumed to follow generalized extreme value distributions whose locations are spatially dependent and where the dependence is captured using a geoadditive model. In particular, since rainfall has a natural spatial domain and a significant spatial variability, a spatial hierarchical model for extremes is used. The spatial hierarchical models, in fact, take into account data from all locations, borrowing strength from neighbouring locations when they estimate parameters and are of great interest when small set of data is available, as in the case of rainfall extreme values. Together with rain gauges location variables further physiographic variables are investigated as explanation variables. The implemented geoadditive mixed model of spatially referenced time series of rainfall extreme values, is able to capture the spatial dynamics of the rainfall extreme phenomenon. Since the model shows evidence of a spatial trend in the rainfall extreme dynamic, the temporal dynamic and the time influence can be also taken into account. The implemented

  1. Temporal variation of extreme precipitation events in Lithuania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Egidijus Rimkus

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Heavy precipitation events in Lithuania for the period 1961-2008 were analysed. The spatial distribution and dynamics of precipitation extremes were investigated. Positive tendencies and in some cases statistically significant trends were determined for the whole of Lithuania. Atmospheric circulation processes were derived using Hess & Brezowski's classification of macrocirculation forms. More than one third of heavy precipitation events (37% were observed when the atmospheric circulation was zonal. The location of the central part of a cyclone (WZ weather condition subtype over Lithuania is the most common synoptic situation (27% during heavy precipitation events. Climatic projections according to outputs of the CCLM model are also presented in this research. The analysis shows that the recurrence of heavy precipitation events in the 21st century will increase significantly (by up to 22% in Lithuania.

  2. Possible future changes in extreme events over Northern Eurasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, Erwan; Sokolov, Andrei; Scott, Jeffery

    2013-04-01

    In this study, we investigate possible future climate change over Northern Eurasia and its impact on extreme events. Northern Eurasia is a major player in the global carbon budget because of boreal forests and peatlands. Circumpolar boreal forests alone contain more than five times the amount of carbon of temperate forests and almost double the amount of carbon of the world's tropical forests. Furthermore, severe permafrost degradation associated with climate change could result in peatlands releasing large amounts of carbon dioxide and methane. Meanwhile, changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events, such as extreme precipitation, heat waves or frost days are likely to have substantial impacts on Northern Eurasia ecosystems. For this reason, it is very important to quantify the possible climate change over Northern Eurasia under different emissions scenarios, while accounting for the uncertainty in the climate response and changes in extreme events. For several decades, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change has been investigating uncertainty in climate change using the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework, an integrated assessment model that couples an earth system model of intermediate complexity (with a 2D zonal-mean atmosphere) to a human activity model. In this study, regional change is investigated using the MIT IGSM-CAM framework that links the IGSM to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). New modules were developed and implemented in CAM to allow climate parameters to be changed to match those of the IGSM. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-equivalent stabilization, which are similar to, respectively, the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios. Values of climate sensitivity and net aerosol

  3. High resolution modelling of extreme precipitation events in urban areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siemerink, Martijn; Volp, Nicolette; Schuurmans, Wytze; Deckers, Dave

    2015-04-01

    The present day society needs to adjust to the effects of climate change. More extreme weather conditions are expected, which can lead to longer periods of drought, but also to more extreme precipitation events. Urban water systems are not designed for such extreme events. Most sewer systems are not able to drain the excessive storm water, causing urban flooding. This leads to high economic damage. In order to take appropriate measures against extreme urban storms, detailed knowledge about the behaviour of the urban water system above and below the streets is required. To investigate the behaviour of urban water systems during extreme precipitation events new assessment tools are necessary. These tools should provide a detailed and integral description of the flow in the full domain of overland runoff, sewer flow, surface water flow and groundwater flow. We developed a new assessment tool, called 3Di, which provides detailed insight in the urban water system. This tool is based on a new numerical methodology that can accurately deal with the interaction between overland runoff, sewer flow and surface water flow. A one-dimensional model for the sewer system and open channel flow is fully coupled to a two-dimensional depth-averaged model that simulates the overland flow. The tool uses a subgrid-based approach in order to take high resolution information of the sewer system and of the terrain into account [1, 2]. The combination of using the high resolution information and the subgrid based approach results in an accurate and efficient modelling tool. It is now possible to simulate entire urban water systems using extreme high resolution (0.5m x 0.5m) terrain data in combination with a detailed sewer and surface water network representation. The new tool has been tested in several Dutch cities, such as Rotterdam, Amsterdam and The Hague. We will present the results of an extreme precipitation event in the city of Schiedam (The Netherlands). This city deals with

  4. Global Energetics of Large Solar Eruptive Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis, Brian R.; Chamberlin, P. C.; Emslie, A. G.; Mewaldt, R. A.; Moore, C. S.; Share, G. H.; Shih, A. Y.; Vourlidas, A.; Welsch, B.

    2012-01-01

    We have evaluated the energetics of the larger solar eruptive events recorded with a variety of spacecraft instruments between February 2002 and December 2006. All of the energetically important components of the flares and of the accompanying coronal mass ejections and solar energetic particles have been evaluated as accurately as the observations allow. These components include the following : (1) the total energy in the high temperature plasma determined from the RHESSI thermal X-ray observations; (2) the total energies in accelerated electrons above 20 keV and ions above 1 MeV from RHESSI hard X-ray and gamma-ray observations, respectively; (3) the potential and kinetic energies of the CME from SOHO/LASCO observations; (4) the solar energetic particle (SEP) energy estimates from in situ measurements on ACE, GOES, and SOHO; (5) the total radiated energy from the SORCEITSI measurements where available, and otherwise from the Flare Irradiance Spectral Model (FISM). The results are assimilated and discussed relative to the probable amount of non potential magnetic energy estimated to be available in the flaring active regions from MDI line-of-sight magnetograms.

  5. Extreme Events and Energy Providers: Science and Innovation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yiou, P.; Vautard, R.

    2012-04-01

    Most socio-economic regulations related to the resilience to climate extremes, from infrastructure or network design to insurance premiums, are based on a present-day climate with an assumption of stationarity. Climate extremes (heat waves, cold spells, droughts, storms and wind stilling) affect in particular energy production, supply, demand and security in several ways. While national, European or international projects have generated vast amounts of climate projections for the 21st century, their practical use in long-term planning remains limited. Estimating probabilistic diagnostics of energy user relevant variables from those multi-model projections will help the energy sector to elaborate medium to long-term plans, and will allow the assessment of climate risks associated to those plans. The project "Extreme Events for Energy Providers" (E3P) aims at filling a gap between climate science and its practical use in the energy sector and creating in turn favourable conditions for new business opportunities. The value chain ranges from addressing research questions directly related to energy-significant climate extremes to providing innovative tools of information and decision making (including methodologies, best practices and software) and climate science training for the energy sector, with a focus on extreme events. Those tools will integrate the scientific knowledge that is developed by scientific communities, and translate it into a usable probabilistic framework. The project will deliver projection tools assessing the probabilities of future energy-relevant climate extremes at a range of spatial scales varying from pan-European to local scales. The E3P project is funded by the Knowledge and Innovation Community (KIC Climate). We will present the mechanisms of interactions between academic partners, SMEs and industrial partners for this project. Those mechanisms are elementary bricks of a climate service.

  6. Statistics of Extreme Events with Application to Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    1992-01-01

    costs associated with global warming will be measured in terms of changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events such as droughts, floods...in climate studies or in discussions of greenhouse warming despite the obvious importance of large deviations from 1 the mean. The theory and...examining 33 7.60 Globa Averaged Temerture Range for Gaussian Distributi, Dew oin Tepertur 6.40 r5-0Sea Surface Temperature - 5.20 4.60 4,00

  7. Distributing urban resilience to extreme precipitation events with green infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montalto, F. A.; Catalano De Sousa, M.; Yu, Z.

    2013-12-01

    New urban green spaces are being designed to manage stormwater, but their performance in a changing climate is untested. Key questions pertain to the ability of these systems to mitigate flood and sewer overflow concerns during impact of extreme events on, and to withstand (biologically and physically) increased frequency and intensity of drought and flood conditions. In this presentation, we present field data characterizing performance of a bioretention area, a stormwater treatment wetland, and a green roof under Hurricane Irene (2011), Superstorm Sandy (2012), and a variety of extreme precipitation events during the summer of 2013. Specifically, we characterize the fate and volume of incident runon and/or precipitation to the facilities during these extreme events, and compare them to long term monitored performance metrics. We also present laboratory test results documenting how vegetation in these facilities stands up to simulated flood and drought conditions. The results are discussed in the context of predicted climate change, specifically associated with the amount and timing of precipitation.

  8. Predicting Indoor Heat Exposure Risk during Extreme Heat Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, Ashlinn; Tamerius, James D.; Perzanowski, Matthew; Jacobson, Judith S.; Goldstein, Inge; Acosta, Luis; Shaman, Jeffrey

    2014-01-01

    Increased heat-related morbidity and mortality are expected direct consequences of global warming. In the developed world, most fatal heat exposures occur in the indoor home environment, yet little is known of the correspondence between outdoor and indoor heat. Here we show how summertime indoor heat and humidity measurements from 285 low- and middle-income New York City homes vary as a function of concurrent local outdoor conditions. Indoor temperatures and heat index levels were both found to have strong positive linear associations with their outdoor counterparts; however, among the sampled homes a broad range of indoor conditions manifested for the same outdoor conditions. Using these models, we simulated indoor conditions for two extreme events: the 10-day 2006 NYC heat wave and a 9-day event analogous to the more extreme 2003 Paris heat wave. These simulations indicate that many homes in New York City would experience dangerously high indoor heat index levels during extreme heat events. These findings also suggest that increasing numbers of NYC low- and middle-income households will be exposed to heat index conditions above important thresholds should the severity of heat waves increase with global climate change. The study highlights the urgent need for improved indoor temperature and humidity management. PMID:24893319

  9. Extreme Rainfall Events Over Southern Africa: Assessment of a Climate Model to Reproduce Daily Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

    2007-12-01

    It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of a state-of-the-art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. Once the model's ability to reproduce extremes has been assessed, idealised regions of SST anomalies are used to force the model, with the overall aim of investigating the ways in which SST anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. In this paper, results from sensitivity testing of the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model's domain size are firstly presented. Then simulations of current climate from the model, operating in both regional and global mode, are compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Thirdly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes will be assessed, again by a comparison with extremes from the MIRA dataset. Finally, the results from the idealised SST experiments are briefly presented, suggesting associations between rainfall extremes and both local and remote SST anomalies.

  10. Understanding extreme rainfall events in Australia through historical data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashcroft, Linden; Karoly, David John

    2016-04-01

    Historical climate data recovery is still an emerging field in the Australian region. The majority of Australia's instrumental climate analyses begin in 1900 for rainfall and 1910 for temperature, particularly those focussed on extreme event analysis. This data sparsity for the past in turn limits our understanding of long-term climate variability, constraining efforts to predict the impact of future climate change. To address this need for improved historical data in Australia, a new network of recovered climate observations has recently been developed, centred on the highly populated southeastern Australian region (Ashcroft et al., 2014a, 2014b). The dataset includes observations from more than 39 published and unpublished sources and extends from British settlement in 1788 to the formation of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology in 1908. Many of these historical sources provide daily temperature and rainfall information, providing an opportunity to improve understanding of the multidecadal variability of Australia's extreme events. In this study we combine the historical data for three major Australian cities - Melbourne, Sydney and Adelaide - with modern observations to examine extreme rainfall variability over the past 174 years (1839-2013). We first explore two case studies, combining instrumental and documentary evidence to support the occurrence of severe storms in Sydney in 1841 and 1844. These events appear to be at least as extreme as Sydney's modern 24-hour rainfall record. Next we use a suite of rainfall indices to assess the long-term variability of rainfall in southeastern Australia. In particular, we focus on the stationarity of the teleconnection between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and extreme rainfall events. Using ENSO reconstructions derived from both palaeoclimatic and documentary sources, we determine the historical relationship between extreme rainfall in southeastern Australia and ENSO, and examine whether or not this

  11. THE LONGITUDINAL PROPERTIES OF A SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENT INVESTIGATED USING MODERN SOLAR IMAGING

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rouillard, A. P. [Institut de Recherche en Astrophysique et Planetologie, Universite de Toulouse (UPS), Toulouse (France); Sheeley, N. R.; Tylka, A.; Vourlidas, A.; Rakowski, C. [Space Science Division, Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC 20375 (United States); Ng, C. K. [College of Science, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA 22030 (United States); Cohen, C. M. S.; Mewaldt, R. A. [Space Radiation Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Mason, G. M. [Applied Physics Laboratory, John Hopkins University, Laurel, MD 20723 (United States); Reames, D. [Institute for Physical Science and Technology, University of Maryland, Greenbelt, MD 20742 (United States); Savani, N. P. [University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307 (United States); StCyr, O. C.; Szabo, A. [Heliophysics Science Division, Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States)

    2012-06-10

    We use combined high-cadence, high-resolution, and multi-point imaging by the Solar-Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) and the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory to investigate the hour-long eruption of a fast and wide coronal mass ejection (CME) on 2011 March 21 when the twin STEREO spacecraft were located beyond the solar limbs. We analyze the relation between the eruption of the CME, the evolution of an Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) wave, and the onset of a solar energetic particle (SEP) event measured in situ by the STEREO and near-Earth orbiting spacecraft. Combined ultraviolet and white-light images of the lower corona reveal that in an initial CME lateral 'expansion phase', the EUV disturbance tracks the laterally expanding flanks of the CME, both moving parallel to the solar surface with speeds of {approx}450 km s{sup -1}. When the lateral expansion of the ejecta ceases, the EUV disturbance carries on propagating parallel to the solar surface but devolves rapidly into a less coherent structure. Multi-point tracking of the CME leading edge and the effects of the launched compression waves (e.g., pushed streamers) give anti-sunward speeds that initially exceed 900 km s{sup -1} at all measured position angles. We combine our analysis of ultraviolet and white-light images with a comprehensive study of the velocity dispersion of energetic particles measured in situ by particle detectors located at STEREO-A (STA) and first Lagrange point (L1), to demonstrate that the delayed solar particle release times at STA and L1 are consistent with the time required (30-40 minutes) for the CME to perturb the corona over a wide range of longitudes. This study finds an association between the longitudinal extent of the perturbed corona (in EUV and white light) and the longitudinal extent of the SEP event in the heliosphere.

  12. Reliability of structural systems subjected to extreme forcing events

    CERN Document Server

    Joo, Han-Kyul; Sapsis, Themistoklis P

    2016-01-01

    We characterize the complex, heavy-tailed probability distribution functions (pdf) describing the response and its local extrema for structural systems subjected to random forcing that includes extreme events. Our approach is based on the recent probabilistic decomposition-synthesis technique in, where we decouple rare events regimes from the background fluctuations. The result of the analysis has the form of a semi-analytical approximation formula for the pdf of the response (displacement, velocity, and acceleration) and the pdf of the local extrema. For special limiting cases (lightly damped or heavily damped systems) our analysis provides fully analytical approximations. We also demonstrate how the method can be applied to high dimensional structural systems through a two-degrees-of-freedom structural system undergoing rare events due to intermittent forcing. The derived formulas can be evaluated with very small computational cost and are shown to accurately capture the complicated heavy-tailed and asymmet...

  13. Impacts of extreme weather events on transport infrastructure in Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frauenfelder, Regula; Solheim, Anders; Isaksen, Ketil; Romstad, Bård; Dyrrdal, Anita V.; Ekseth, Kristine H. H.; Gangstø Skaland, Reidun; Harbitz, Alf; Harbitz, Carl B.; Haugen, Jan E.; Hygen, Hans O.; Haakenstad, Hilde; Jaedicke, Christian; Jónsson, Árni; Klæboe, Ronny; Ludvigsen, Johanna; Meyer, Nele K.; Rauken, Trude; Sverdrup-Thygeson, Kjetil

    2016-04-01

    With the latest results on expected future increase in air temperature and precipitation changes reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the climate robustness of important infrastructure is of raising concern in Norway, as well as in the rest of Europe. Economic consequences of natural disasters have increased considerably since 1950. In addition to the effect of demographic changes such as population growth, urbanization and more and more concentration of valuable assets, this increase is also related to an augmenting frequency of extreme events, such as storms, flooding, drought, and landslides. This change is also observable in Norway, where the increased frequency of strong precipitation has led to frequent flooding and landslide events during the last 20 years. A number of studies show that climate change causes an increase in both frequency and intensity of several types of extreme weather, especially when it comes to precipitation. Such extreme weather events greatly affect the transport infrastructure, with numerous and long closures of roads and railroads, in addition to damage and repair costs. Frequent closures of railroad and roads lead to delay or failure in delivery of goods, which again may lead to a loss of customers and/or - eventually - markets. Much of the Norwegian transport infrastructure is more than 50 years old and therefore not adequately dimensioned, even for present climatic conditions. In order to assess these problems and challenges posed to the Norwegian transport infrastructure from present-day and future extreme weather events, the project "Impacts of extreme weather events on infrastructure in Norway (InfraRisk)" was performed under the research Council of Norway program 'NORKLIMA', between 2009 and 2013. The main results of the project are: - Moderate to strong precipitation events have become more frequent and more intense in Norway over the last 50 years, and this trend continues throughout the 21st

  14. Financial market response to extreme events indicating climatic change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anttila-Hughes, J. K.

    2016-05-01

    A variety of recent extreme climatic events are considered to be strong evidence that the climate is warming, but these incremental advances in certainty often seem ignored by non-scientists. I identify two unusual types of events that are considered to be evidence of climate change, announcements by NASA that the global annual average temperature has set a new record, and the sudden collapse of major polar ice shelves, and then conduct an event study to test whether news of these events changes investors' valuation of energy companies, a subset of firms whose future performance is closely tied to climate change. I find evidence that both classes of events have influenced energy stock prices since the 1990s, with record temperature announcements on average associated with negative returns and ice shelf collapses associated with positive returns. I identify a variety of plausible mechanisms that may be driving these differential responses, discuss implications for energy markets' views on long-term regulatory risk, and conclude that investors not only pay attention to scientifically significant climate events, but discriminate between signals carrying different information about the nature of climatic change.

  15. Forecasting the Solar Drivers of Solar Energetic Particle Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falconer, David A.; Moore, Ronald L.; Barghouty, Abdulnasser F.; Khazanov, Igor

    2012-01-01

    Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region's magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, maps of the measured field in the photosphere, and (2) an active region's rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region's present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region's expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region's recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare (GOES class M or X) during the past 24 hours before the time of the measured magnetogram.

  16. Simulation of the 23 July 2012 Extreme Space Weather Event: What if This Extremely Rare CME Was Earth Directed?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngwira, Chigomezyo M.; Pulkkinen, Antti; Mays, M. Leila; Kuznetsova, Maria M.; Galvin, A. B.; Simunac, Kristin; Baker, Daniel N.; Li, Xinlin; Zheng, Yihua; Glocer, Alex

    2013-01-01

    Extreme space weather events are known to cause adverse impacts on critical modern day technological infrastructure such as high-voltage electric power transmission grids. On 23 July 2012, NASA's Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory-Ahead (STEREO-A) spacecraft observed in situ an extremely fast coronal mass ejection (CME) that traveled 0.96 astronomical units (approx. 1 AU) in about 19 h. Here we use the SpaceWeather Modeling Framework (SWMF) to perform a simulation of this rare CME.We consider STEREO-A in situ observations to represent the upstream L1 solar wind boundary conditions. The goal of this study is to examine what would have happened if this Rare-type CME was Earth-bound. Global SWMF-generated ground geomagnetic field perturbations are used to compute the simulated induced geoelectric field at specific ground-based active INTERMAGNET magnetometer sites. Simulation results show that while modeled global SYM-H index, a high-resolution equivalent of the Dst index, was comparable to previously observed severe geomagnetic storms such as the Halloween 2003 storm, the 23 July CME would have produced some of the largest geomagnetically induced electric fields, making it very geoeffective. These results have important practical applications for risk management of electrical power grids.

  17. Analogues of atmospheric circulation to probe extreme and rare events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yiou, P.

    2015-12-01

    Analogues of atmospheric circulation have had many applications, from weather prediction to the downscaling of climate variables. The main assumptions behind this methodology are that climate variables (such as temperature or precipitation) are linked a large-scale atmospheric predictand, which is usually taken as sea-level pressure, and that such predictands recur through time. They offer a possibility to estimate probability distributions of a climate variable, conditional to patterns of atmospheric circulation. In addition, this methodology allows the quantification of unusual weather patterns that have been observed. I will represent a way to use analogues of circulation for the detection/attribution of extreme events of precipitation and temperature. This approach will be illustrated on test cases, including the warm European winter of 2006/2007, the extremes of precipitation over Southern UK and northwestern France in January 2014, and the European summer of 2015. I will show how this analysis provides a low-cost estimate of the fraction of attributable risk (FAR) for extreme events that verify the above mentioned hypotheses. Such an analysis can be performed in continuous time with reanalysis data and meteorological observations.

  18. Reproducing an extreme flood with uncertain post-event information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Fuentes-Andino

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Studies for the prevention and mitigation of floods require information on discharge and extent of inundation, commonly unavailable or uncertain, especially during extreme events. This study was initiated by the devastating flood in Tegucigalpa, the capital of Honduras, when Hurricane Mitch struck the city. In this study we hypothesized that it is possible to estimate, in a trustworthy way considering large data uncertainties, this extreme 1998 flood discharge and the extent of the inundations that followed from a combination of models and post-event measured data. Post-event data collected in 2000 and 2001 were used to estimate discharge peaks, times of peak, and high-water marks. These data were used in combination with rain data from two gauges to drive and constrain a combination of well-known modelling tools: TOPMODEL, Muskingum–Cunge–Todini routing, and the LISFLOOD-FP hydraulic model. Simulations were performed within the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE uncertainty-analysis framework. The model combination predicted peak discharge, times of peaks, and more than 90 % of the observed high-water marks within the uncertainty bounds of the evaluation data. This allowed an inundation likelihood map to be produced. Observed high-water marks could not be reproduced at a few locations on the floodplain. Identifications of these locations are useful to improve model set-up, model structure, or post-event data-estimation methods. Rainfall data were of central importance in simulating the times of peak and results would be improved by a better spatial assessment of rainfall, e.g. from radar data or a denser rain-gauge network. Our study demonstrated that it was possible, considering the uncertainty in the post-event data, to reasonably reproduce the extreme Mitch flood in Tegucigalpa in spite of no hydrometric gauging during the event. The method proposed here can be part of a Bayesian framework in which more events

  19. The Estimation of Probability of Extreme Events for Small Samples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pisarenko, V. F.; Rodkin, M. V.

    2017-02-01

    The most general approach to the study of rare extreme events is based on the extreme value theory. The fundamental General Extreme Value Distribution lies in the basis of this theory serving as the limit distribution for normalized maxima. It depends on three parameters. Usually the method of maximum likelihood (ML) is used for the estimation that possesses well-known optimal asymptotic properties. However, this method works efficiently only when sample size is large enough ( 200-500), whereas in many applications the sample size does not exceed 50-100. For such sizes, the advantage of the ML method in efficiency is not guaranteed. We have found that for this situation the method of statistical moments (SM) works more efficiently over other methods. The details of the estimation for small samples are studied. The SM is applied to the study of extreme earthquakes in three large virtual seismic zones, representing the regime of seismicity in subduction zones, intracontinental regime of seismicity, and the regime in mid-ocean ridge zones. The 68%-confidence domains for pairs of parameter (ξ, σ) and (σ, μ) are derived.

  20. Probabilistic forecast of daily areal precipitation focusing on extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bliefernicht, J.; Bárdossy, A.

    2007-04-01

    A dynamical downscaling scheme is usually used to provide a short range flood forecasting system with high-resolved precipitation fields. Unfortunately, a single forecast of this scheme has a high uncertainty concerning intensity and location especially during extreme events. Alternatively, statistical downscaling techniques like the analogue method can be used which can supply a probabilistic forecasts. However, the performance of the analogue method is affected by the similarity criterion, which is used to identify similar weather situations. To investigate this issue in this work, three different similarity measures are tested: the euclidean distance (1), the Pearson correlation (2) and a combination of both measures (3). The predictor variables are geopotential height at 1000 and 700 hPa-level and specific humidity fluxes at 700 hPa-level derived from the NCEP/NCAR-reanalysis project. The study is performed for three mesoscale catchments located in the Rhine basin in Germany. It is validated by a jackknife method for a period of 44 years (1958-2001). The ranked probability skill score, the Brier Skill score, the Heidke skill score and the confidence interval of the Cramer association coefficient are calculated to evaluate the system for extreme events. The results show that the combined similarity measure yields the best results in predicting extreme events. However, the confidence interval of the Cramer coefficient indicates that this improvement is only significant compared to the Pearson correlation but not for the euclidean distance. Furthermore, the performance of the presented forecasting system is very low during the summer and new predictors have to be tested to overcome this problem.

  1. Statistical analysis of long-duration low-density solar wind events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Watari

    Full Text Available Low solar wind density with long duration was measured by in situ observation between 11 and 12 May 1999. As a result of this low-density solar wind condition, the magnetosphere of the Earth expanded considerably. We used a database of one-hour-averaged solar wind (1963–1999 near 1 AU to determine whether or not the observed low-density event was extremely abnormal. As a result it was found that this event has the longest duration in approximately 36 years of solar wind observations. There are three events with density 0.5 cm-3 or less and duration ten hours or longer. They were observed on 4 and 31 July 1979, and 11–12 May 1999. The 4 July 1979 event recurred on 31 July 1979. The events were characterized by low-beta, low Alfven Mach number (MA , and low dynamic pressure. The occurrence rate of low-density solar wind with density 0.5 cm-3 or less shows several peaks near solar maxima. However, it is difficult to find a clear relationship between the sunspot number and the occurrence rate.

    Key words. Interplanetary physics (flare and stream dynamics; solar wind plasma; sources of the solar wind

  2. PRACE resources to study extreme natural events: the SCENE project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiori, Elisabetta; Galizia, Antonella; Danovaro, Emanuele; Clematis, Andrea; Bedrina, Tatiana; Parodi, Antonio

    2014-05-01

    Forecasting severe storms and floods is one of the main challenges of 21th century. Floods are the most dangerous meteorological hazard in the Mediterranean basins due to both the number of people affected and to the relatively high frequency by which human activities and goods suffer damages and losses. The numerical simulations of extreme events which happen over small basins as the Mediterranean ones are need a very fine-resolution in space and time and as a consequence considerable memory and computational power are required. Since the resources provided by the PRACE project represent the solution for satisfying such requirements, the Super Computing of Extreme Natural Events (SCENE) project has been proposed. SCENE aims to provide an advanced understanding of the intrinsic predictability of severe precipitation processes and the associated predictive ability of high-resolution meteorological models with a special focus on flash flood-producing storms in regions of complex orography (e.g. Mediterranean area) through the assessment of the role of both the convective and microphysical processes. The meteorological model considered in the project is the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, a state of the art mesoscale numerical weather prediction system designed to serve both operational forecasting and atmospheric research needs. Thus, among all the parameterizations available in the WRF model, the WRF Single-Moment 6-Class Scheme and the Thompson microphysics scheme will be adopted for the numerical simulations in combination with three different approaches for the treatment of the convective processes, that is the use of explicit method, Betts-Miller-Janjic Scheme and Kain-Fritsch. As for flash-flood producing storms, the project considers the recent sequence of extreme events occurred in the north-western portion of the Mediterranean sea; some of these events are the so-called critical cases of the DRIHM project (www.drihm.eu), i.e. selected severe

  3. Solar and Interplanetary Causes of Extremely Intense Substorms During Superstorms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsurutani, Bruce; Hajra, Rajkumar; Echer, Ezequiel; Gjerloev, Jesper

    2016-04-01

    We have begun a study of particularly intense substorms that occur during superstorms. We will relate the solar cycle dependences of events, whether they are externally or internally triggered, and their relationship to other factors such as magnetospheric preconditioning. If time permits, we will explore the details of the events and whether they are similar to regular (Akasofu, 1964) substorms or not. These intense substorms are an important feature of space weather since they may be responsible for power outages.

  4. Mathematical aspects of assessing extreme events for the safety of nuclear plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potempski, Slawomir; Borysiewicz, Mieczyslaw

    2015-04-01

    In the paper the review of mathematical methodologies applied for assessing low frequencies of rare natural events like earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes or tornadoes, floods (in particular flash floods and surge storms), lightning, solar flares, etc., will be given in the perspective of the safety assessment of nuclear plants. The statistical methods are usually based on the extreme value theory, which deals with the analysis of extreme deviation from the median (or the mean). In this respect application of various mathematical tools can be useful, like: the extreme value theorem of Fisher-Tippett-Gnedenko leading to possible choices of general extreme value distributions, or the Pickands-Balkema-de Haan theorem for tail fitting, or the methods related to large deviation theory. In the paper the most important stochastic distributions relevant for performing rare events statistical analysis will be presented. This concerns, for example, the analysis of the data with the annual extreme values (maxima - "Annual Maxima Series" or minima), or the peak values, exceeding given thresholds at some periods of interest ("Peak Over Threshold"), or the estimation of the size of exceedance. Despite of the fact that there is a lack of sufficient statistical data directly containing rare events, in some cases it is still possible to extract useful information from existing larger data sets. As an example one can consider some data sets available from the web sites for floods, earthquakes or generally natural hazards. Some aspects of such data sets will be also presented taking into account their usefulness for the practical assessment of risk for nuclear power plants coming from extreme weather conditions.

  5. High resolution simulations of extreme weather event in south Sardinia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dessy, C.

    2010-05-01

    In the last decade, like most region of Mediterranean Europe, Sardinia has experienced severe precipitation events generating flash floods resulting in loss of lives and large economic damage. A numerical meteorological operational set-up is applied in the local weather service with the aim to improve the operational short range weather forecast of the Service with particular attention to intense, mostly rare and potentially severe, events. On the early hours of 22 October 2008 an intense and almost stationary mesoscale convective system interested particularly the south of Sardinia, heavy precipitation caused a flash flood with fatalities and numerous property damages. The event was particularly intense: about 400 mm of rain in 12 hours (a peak of 150 mm in an hour) were misured by the regional network of weather stations and these values appear extremely meaningfulls since those are about seven times the climatological monthly rainfall for that area and nearly the climatological annual rainfall. With the aim to improve significantly quantitative precipitation forecasting, it was evaluated a different set-up of a high resolution convection resolving model (MM5) initialised with different initial and boundary conditions (ECMWF and NCAR). In this paper it is discussed the meteorological system related to the mentioned event by using different numerical weather models (GCM and LAM) combined with conventional data, radar Doppler and Meteosat images. Preliminary results say that a different set-up of a non hydrostatic model can forecast severe convection events in advance of about one day and produce more realistic rainfall than that current operational and also improve the weather forecasts to respect the ECMWF-GCM. So it could drive an operational alert system in order to limit the risks associated with heavy precipitation events.

  6. Recent Changes of Some Observed Climate Extreme Events in Kano

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Imole Ezekiel Gbode

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Observed rainfall and temperature data for the period 1960–2007 were used to examine recent changes of extreme climate over Kano, located in the Sahelian region of Nigeria. The RClimDex software package was employed to generate nine important climate indices as defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection, Monitoring and Indices (ETCCDMI. For the entire period, the results show a warming trend, an increased number of cool nights, more warm days, and a strong increase in the number of warm spells. The rainfall indices show a slight increase in annual total rainfall, a decrease in the maximum number of consecutive wet days, and a significant increase in the number of extremely wet days. Such changes in climate may result in an increasing demand for domestic energy for cooling and a higher evaporation rate from water bodies and irrigated crop. These findings may give some guidance to politicians and planners in how to best cope with these extreme weather and climate events.

  7. Assessing Hydrological Extreme Events with Geospatial Data and Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vivoni, Enrique R.; Grimaldi, Salvatore; Nardi, Fernando; Ivanov, Valeriy Y.; Castelli, Fabio; Bras, Rafael L.; Ubertini, Lucio

    2004-09-01

    Prediction of river basin hydrological response to extreme meteorological events is a primary concern in areas with frequent flooding, landslides, and debris flows. Natural hydrogeological disasters in many regions lead to extensive property damage, impact on societal activities, and loss of life. Hydrologists have a long history of assessing and predicting hydrologic hazards through the combined use of field observations, monitoring networks, remote sensing, and numerical modeling. Nevertheless, the integration of field data and computer models has yet to result in prediction systems that capture space-time interactions between meteorological forcing, land surface characteristics, and the internal hydrological response in river basins. Capabilities for assessing hydrologic extreme events are greatly enhanced via the use of geospatial data sets describing watershed properties such as topography, channel structure, soils, vegetation, and geological features. Recent advances in managing, processing, and visualizing cartographic data with geographic information systems (GIS) have enabled their direct use in spatially distributed hydrological models. In a distributed model application, geospatial data sets can be used to establish the model domain, specify boundary and initial conditions, determine the spatial variation of parameter values, and provide the spatial model forcing. By representing a watershed through a set of discrete elements, distributed models simulate water, energy, and mass transport in a landscape and provide estimates of the spatial pattern of hydrologic states, fluxes, and pathways.

  8. The Climatology of Taiwan extreme rainfall events and the attributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, S. H.; Kuo, H. C.; Chen, Y. H.; Chu, J. L.; Lin, L. Y.

    2015-12-01

    Taiwan is located in the East-Asian monsoon region with average 2,500mm annual precipitation. Most significant Meteorological disasters are related to extreme precipitation which is associated with a complex terrain. Therefore, the long-term trends or climate variations in precipitation due to climate change are our major concern. We studied the climatology of extreme rainfall (ER, 95thpercentile) events in Taiwan using hourly precipitation data form 21 surface stations during 1960-2014. ER contributes about 40% of the total rain amount. It was found that approximately 68% of ER is related to typhoon (TY) and 22% associated with the Mei-Yu (MY) frontal system. The total ER amount annual variation is strongly related to TY, with correlation coefficient of 0.89 for rainfall amount and 0.86 for frequency. There is a significant increasing trend of TY-ER in past 55 years, but also has large variations over the annual and decadal time scales. The inter-annual variation of astounding extreme rainfall (AER, 99.9thpercentile) is increased significantly, especially in the past 15 years. It implies that the increasing of AER rainfall amount majorly caused by the increasing of frequency instead of average rain intensity of TY-AER. The MY-ER events are also highly correlated with the frontal system. The correlation is 0.84 for the rainfall amount and 0.83 of the frequency with the frontal days. There are also strong inter-annual variations of MY-ER, but the long-term trends are not as significant as TY-ER. The variation of frontal system number is another parameter may impact the MY-ER. The observational frontal system numbers had positive correlation with the MY-ER. The attribution of Taiwan TY-ER changes was debated in the research community. In general, the public acceptance of Taiwan extreme precipitation events is affected by multi-scale systems. According to observational data, the increasing of TY-ER amount is 37 % (48% )in Taiwan and some resent studies (Wang et al

  9. Distribution of extreme rainfall events over Ebro River basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saa, Antonio; Tarquis, Ana Maria; Valencia, Jose Luis; Gascó, Jose Maria

    2010-05-01

    The purpose of this work is to provide a description of the heavy rainfall phenomenon on statistical tools from a Spanish region. We want to quantify the effect of the climate change to verify the rapidity of its evolution across the variation of the probability distributions. Our conclusions have special interest for the agrarian insurances, which may make estimates of costs more realistically. In this work, the analysis mainly focuses on: The distribution of consecutive days without rain for each gauge stations and season. We estimate density Kernel functions and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) for a network of station from the Ebro River basin until a threshold value u. We can establish a relation between distributional parameters and regional characteristics. Moreover we analyze especially the tail of the probability distribution. These tails are governed by law of power means that the number of events n can be expressed as the power of another quantity x : n(x) = x? . ? can be estimated as the slope of log-log plot the number of events and the size. The most convenient way to analyze n(x) is using the empirical probability distribution. Pr(X > x) ∞ x-?. The distribution of rainfall over percentile of order 0.95 from wet days at the seasonal scale and in a yearly scale with the same treatment of tails than in the previous section. The evolution of the distribution in the second XXth century and the impact on the extreme values model. After realized the analyses it does not appreciate difference in the distribution throughout the time which suggests that this region does not appreciate increase of the extreme values both for the number of dry consecutive days and for the value of the rainfall References: Coles, Stuart (2001). An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values,. Springer-Verlag Krishnamoorthy K. (2006), Handbook of Statistical Distributions with Applications, Chapman & Hall/CRC. Bodini A., Cossu A. (2010). Vulnerability assessment

  10. Extreme weather events in Iran under a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alizadeh-Choobari, Omid; Najafi, M. S.

    2017-03-01

    Observations unequivocally show that Iran has been rapidly warming over recent decades, which in sequence has triggered a wide range of climatic impacts. Meteorological records of several ground stations across Iran with daily temporal resolution for the period 1951-2013 were analyzed to investigate the climate change and its impact on some weather extremes. Iran has warmed by nearly 1.3° C during the period 1951-2013 (+0.2° per decade), with an increase of the minimum temperature at a rate two times that of the maximum. Consequently, an increase in the frequency of heat extremes and a decrease in the frequency of cold extremes have been observed. The annual precipitation has decreased by 8 mm per decade, causing an expansion of Iran's dry zones. Previous studies have pointed out that warming is generally associated with more frequent heavy precipitation because a warmer air can hold more moisture. Nevertheless, warming in Iran has been associated with more frequent light precipitation, but less frequent moderate, heavy and extremely heavy precipitation. This is because in the subtropical dry zones, a longer time is required to recharge the atmosphere with water vapour in a warmer climate, causing more water vapour to be transported from the subtropics to high latitudes before precipitations forms. In addition, the altitude of the condensation level increases in a warmer climate in subtropical regions, causing an overall decrease of precipitation. We argue that changing in the frequency of heavy precipitation in response to warming varies depending on the geographical location. Warming over the dry subtropical regions is associated with a decrease in the frequency of heavy precipitation, while an increase is expected over both subpolar and tropical regions. The warmer climate has also led to the increase in the frequency of both thunderstorms (driven by convective heating) and dust events over Iran.

  11. Modelling extreme climatic events in Guadalquivir Estuary ( Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delgado, Juan; Moreno-Navas, Juan; Pulido, Antoine; García-Lafuente, Juan; Calero Quesada, Maria C.; García, Rodrigo

    2017-04-01

    Extreme climatic events, such as heat waves and severe storms are predicted to increase in frequency and magnitude as a consequence of global warming but their socio-ecological effects are poorly understood, particularly in estuarine ecosystems. The Guadalquivir Estuary has been anthropologically modified several times, the original salt marshes have been transformed to grow rice and cotton and approximately one-fourth of the total surface of the estuary is now part of two protected areas, one of them is a UNESCO, MAB Biosphere Reserve. The climatic events are most likely to affect Europe in forthcoming decades and a further understanding how these climatic disturbances drive abrupt changes in the Guadalquivir estuary is needed. A barotropic model has been developed to study how severe storm events affects the estuary by conducting paired control and climate-events simulations. The changes in the local wind and atmospheric pressure conditions in the estuary have been studied in detail and several scenarios are obtained by running the model under control and real storm conditions. The model output has been validated with in situ water elevation and good agreement between modelled and real measurements have been obtained. Our preliminary results show that the model demonstrated the capability describe of the tide-surge levels in the estuary, opening the possibility to study the interaction between climatic events and the port operations and food production activities. The barotropic hydrodynamic model provide spatially explicit information on the key variables governing the tide dynamics of estuarine areas under severe climatic scenarios . The numerical model will be a powerful tool in future climate change mitigation and adaptation programs in a complex socio-ecological system.

  12. Modern sedimentation and extreme event in the South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yu-Huang; Su, Chih-Chieh

    2016-04-01

    The South China Sea is the largest marginal sea of the northwest Pacific. It is situated at the plate boundary of the Eurasian, Philippine Sea, and Indian plates and also on the North Western Pacific corridor of typhoons. The unique tectonic and climatic environment makes it has to face the potential of seafloor destructions, like submarine landslides and slumps, and high sediment discharges which induced by typhoon from Philippine. In this study, we analysis the sediment properties of modern extreme event records in cores and attempt to evaluate the history of extreme events in the South China Sea. Twelve gravity cores were collected in the central South China Sea basin and around Taiping island by using R/V Ocean Research 1 from 2014 to 2015 and a series of analysis including multi-sensor core logger, XRF core scanner (Itrax), core surface images, X-radiographs, bulk density, grain size, Pb-210 chronology and X-ray diffractometer were conducted in this study. On core surface images, an obvious brownish oxidized layer exist in core top with higher Pb-210 activity beneath this oxidized layer, and we speculate this layer is caused by nature hazard. According to the sampling time, we conjecture the oxidized layer might formed by typhoon Haiyan in 2013. In addition, the Itrax data shows high manganese content only exist in this layer which might related to the modern industrial pollution delivered by typhoon induced flooding from Philippine. The sedimentation rate of the non-event years in these cores which derived from Pb-210 chronology method is about 0.02 ~0.03 cm/yr. On contrary, the event layer caused by Haiyan with a recorded maximum 87cm deposits in the South China Sea. This study aims to characterize the typhoon induced deposits in the turbidite layer and use it to identify whether the other event layers recorded in these cores were related to typhoon activities and to reconstruct the strong tropical cyclone history in the western Pacific.

  13. Extreme fog events in Poland with respect to circulation conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ustrnul, Z.; Czekierda, D.; Wypych, A.

    2010-09-01

    Fog is a phenomenon which belongs to a group of so-called hydrometeorites and, according to the different dictionaries, it is a suspension of water droplets or ice crystals in the ground layer of the air that impairs visibility in the horizontal direction below 1 km. The phenomenon of fog, although much less dynamic or violent than other extreme phenomena, such as thunderstorms or hail, is equally dangerous and brings about huge social and economic complications. Land and air transportation suffer and fog may sometimes leads to a complete crippling of the whole economy in an area where fog occurs. The main objective of the study is determination of the circulation types bringing extreme fog events in Poland. The duration of fog at each meteorological station was considered as the main input data originated from 54 synoptic stations located across the country. The mentioned data series cover the period of 56 years (1951-2006). The occurrence of fog depends on meteorological conditions caused to a large extent by a given synoptic situation and local terrain conditions. In this study, according to its objectives, only circulation conditions are taken into consideration. These have been described by 5 different circulation classifications (Grosswetterlagen, Litynski, Osuchowska-Klein, Niedzwiedz and Ustrnul). Situations when this phenomenon occurred across a large part of the country were taken into detailed consideration. Special attention was paid to fog coverage during 24-hour periods. In this work, in light of certain doubts about the homogeneity of the observation material available, the intensity of fog was not included, as it requires additional and very tedious analysis. In the first step all cases of fog during the 1966-2006 study period which lasted 24 hours at more than 10 of the considered weather stations, i.e: at least 5 stations have been considered. As expected, in most cases, either a centre of a classical high pressure system or a high pressure wedge

  14. Solar Orbiter- Solar Array- Thermal Design for an Extreme Temperature Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muller, Jens; Paarmann, Carola; Lindner, Anton; Kreutz, Martin; Oberhuttinger, Carola; Costello, Ian; Icardi, Lidia

    2014-08-01

    The Solar Orbiter mission is an interdisciplinary mission to the sun, carried out by ESA in collaboration with NASA. The spacecraft will approach the sun close to 0.28 AU. At this distance, the solar array has to be operated under high solar array inclination angles to limit the temperatures to a maximum qualification temperature of 200°C for the photo voltaic assembly (PVA). Nevertheless, extreme temperatures appear at specific locations of the solar array which require purpose-built temperature protection measures. A very specific thermal protection is needed to keep the PVA and its supporting structures within the qualified temperature range and simultaneously minimize the thermal flux into the spacecraft.This paper describes the Solar Orbiter solar array design in general and its specific thermal design in particular. It describes the interdisciplinary steps between thermal- and mechanical analysis as well as design engineering necessary to result to the different shielding methods.

  15. Crop insurance evaluation in response to extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moriondo, Marco; Ferrise, Roberto; Bindi, Marco

    2013-04-01

    Crop yield insurance has been indicated as a tool to manage the uncertainties of crop yields (Sherrick et al., 2004) but the changes in crop yield variability as expected in the near future should be carefully considered for a better quantitative assessment of farmer's revenue risk and insurance values in a climatic change regime (Moriondo et al., 2011). Under this point of view, mechanistic crop growth models coupled to the output of General/Regional Circulation Models (GCMs, RCMs) offer a valuable tool to evaluate crop responses to climatic change and this approach has been extensively used to describe crop yield distribution in response to climatic change considering changes in both mean climate and variability. In this work, we studied the effect of a warmer climate on crop yield distribution of durum wheat (Triticum turgidum L. subsp durum) in order to assess the economic significance of climatic change in a risk decision context. Specifically, the outputs of 6 RCMs (Tmin, Tmax, Rainfall, Global Radiation) (van der Linden and Mitchell 2009) have been statistically downscaled by a stochastic weather generator over eight sites across the Mediterranean basin and used to feed the crop growth model Sirius Quality. Three time slices were considered i) the present period PP (average of the period 1975-1990, [CO2]=350 ppm), 2020 (average of the period 2010-2030, SRES scenario A1b, [CO2]=415 ppm) and 2040 (average of the period 2030-2050, SRES scenario A1b, [CO2]=480 ppm). The effect of extreme climate events (i.e. heat stress at anthesis stage) was also considered. The outputs of these simulations were used to estimate the expected payout per hectare from insurance triggered when yields fall below a specific threshold defined as "the insured yield". For each site, the threshold was calculated as a fraction (70%) of the median of yield distribution under PP that represents the percentage of median yield above which indemnity payments are triggered. The results

  16. Increased Stream Temperature in Response to Extreme Precipitation Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, C. E.; Gooseff, M. N.

    2016-12-01

    Aquatic ecosystem temperature regulation is essential to the survival of riverine fish species restricted to limited water temperature ranges. Dissolved oxygen levels, similarly necessary to fish health, are decreased by rising temperatures, as warmer waters can hold less oxygen than colder waters. Climate change projections forecast increased precipitation intensities, a trend that has already been observed in the past decade. Though extreme events are becoming more common, the stream temperature response to high-intensity rainfall is not yet completely understood. Precipitation and stream temperature records from gages in the Upper Midwestern United States were analyzed to determine whether there exists a positive relationship between high-intensity rainfall and stream temperature response. This region was chosen for its already observed trends in increasing precipitation intensity, and rural gages were used in order to minimize the effect of impervious surfaces on runoff amounts and temperature. Days with recorded precipitation were divided by an intensity threshold and classified as either high-intensity or low-intensity days. While the effects of rain events on temperature are variable, increases in stream temperature in response to high-intensity rainfall were observed. For some basins, daily maximum rates of stream temperature increase were, on average, greater for higher intensity events. Similarly, the average daily stream temperature range was higher in streams on days of high-intensity precipitation, compared to days of low-intensity events. Understanding the effect of increasing precipitation intensity in conjunction with rising air temperatures will provide insight into the future of aquatic ecosystems and their adaptation to climate change.

  17. Management of the Extreme Events: Countering International Terrorism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr. Cristian Barna

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available After the terrorism attacks of September 11, 2001, there is recognition by both the public and private sectors that one needs to rethink our strategy for dealing with these low probability but extreme consequence events. September 11, 2001 attacks against the United States raised numerous questions related to counter-terrorism, foreign policy, as well as national security in the United States and abroad. They also raised the fundamental question of who should pay for losses due to terrorism.The question of who should pay for terrorism risk prevention and sustainable coverage within a country is likely to be seen first as a matter of collective responsibility that each country has to consider – a societal choice

  18. Changes of extreme drought and flood events in Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modarres, Reza; Sarhadi, Ali; Burn, Donald H.

    2016-09-01

    Located in an arid and semi-arid region of the world, Iran has experienced many extreme flood and drought events in the last and current century. The present study aims to assess the changes in Iran's flood magnitude and drought severity for 1950-2010, with some time span variation in some stations. The Mann-Kendall test for monotonic trend was first applied to assess changes in flood and drought severity data. In addition, to consider the effect of serial correlation, two Pre-Whitening Trend (PWT) tests were also applied. It was observed that the number of stations with statistically significant trends has increased after applying PWT tests. Both increasing and decreasing trends were observed for drought severity and flood magnitude in different climate regions and major basins of Iran using these tests. The increase in flood magnitude and drought severity can be attributed partly to land use changes, an annual rainfall negative trend, a maximum rainfall increasing trend, and inappropriate water resources management policies. The paper indicates a critical situation related to extreme climate change in Iran and the increasing risk of environmental changes in the 21st century.

  19. Prediction of Exposure Level of Energetic Solar Particle Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, M. H. Y.; Blattnig, S.

    2016-12-01

    The potential for exposure to large solar particle events (SPEs) with fluxes that extend to high energies is a major concern during interplanetary transfer and extravehicular activities (EVAs) on the lunar and Martian surfaces. Prediction of sporadic occurrence of SPEs is not accurate for near or long-term scales, while the expected frequency of such events is strongly influenced by solar cycle activity. In the development of NASA's operational strategies real-time estimation of exposure to SPEs has been considered so that adequate responses can be applied in a timely manner to reduce exposures to well below the exposure limits. Previously, the organ doses of large historical SPEs had been calculated by using the complete energy spectra of each event and then developing a prediction model for blood-forming organ (BFO) dose based solely on an assumed value of integrated fluence above 30 MeV (Φ30) for an otherwise unspecified future SPE. While BFO dose is determined primarily by solar protons with high energies, it was reasoned that more accurate BFO dose prediction models could be developed using integrated fluence above 60 MeV (Φ60) and above 100 MeV (Φ100) as predictors instead of Φ30. In the current study, re-analysis of major SPEs (in which the proton spectra of the ground level enhancement [GLE] events since 1956 are correctly described by Band functions) has been used in evaluation of exposure levels. More accurate prediction models for BFO dose and NASA effective dose are then developed using integrated fluence above 200 MeV (Φ200), which by far have the most weight in the calculation of doses for deep-seated organs from exposure to extreme SPEs (GLEs or sub-GLEs). The unconditional probability of a BFO dose exceeding a pre-specified BFO dose limit is simultaneously calculated by taking into account the distribution of the predictor (Φ30, Φ60, Φ100, or Φ200) as estimated from historical SPEs. These results can be applied to the development of

  20. Position of the source of particles in solar electron events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xue-yi; Huang, Yong-nian

    The ISEE-3 data for 51 solar electron events are analyzed and classified into Fe-rich and Fe-poor events. For Fe-rich events, the source is found to be in the high chromosphere; for the Fe-poor events, in the region between the chromosphere and corona. In both cases the source position differs from the position of the corresponding flare. A process of formation of these two types of events is proposed.

  1. The Long-term Middle Atmospheric Influence of Very Large Solar Proton Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackman, Charles H.; Marsh, Daniel R.; Vitt, Francis M.; Garcia, Rolando R.; Randall, Cora E.; Fleming, Eric L.; Frith, Stacey M.

    2008-01-01

    Long-term variations in ozone have been caused by both natural and humankind related processes. The humankind or anthropogenic influence on ozone originates from the chlorofluorocarbons and halons (chlorine and bromine) and has led to international regulations greatly limiting the release of these substances. Certain natural ozone influences are also important in polar regions and are caused by the impact of solar charged particles on the atmosphere. Such natural variations have been studied in order to better quantify the human influence on polar ozone. Large-scale explosions on the Sun near solar maximum lead to emissions of charged particles (mainly protons and electrons), some of which enter the Earth's magnetosphere and rain down on the polar regions. "Solar proton events" have been used to describe these phenomena since the protons associated with these solar events sometimes create a significant atmospheric disturbance. We have used the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) to study the long-term (> few months) influences of solar proton events from 1963 through 2004 on stratospheric ozone and temperature. There were extremely large solar proton events in 1972, 1989,2000,2001, and 2003. These events caused very distinctive polar changes in layers of the Earth's atmosphere known as the stratosphere (12-50 km; -7-30 miles) and mesosphere (50-90 km; 30-55 miles). The solar protons connected with these events created hydrogen- and nitrogen-containing compounds, which led to the polar ozone destruction. The nitrogen-containing compounds, called odd nitrogen, lasted much longer than the hydrogen-containing compounds and led to long-lived stratospheric impacts. An extremely active period for these events occurred in the five-year period, 2000- 2004, and caused increases in odd nitrogen which lasted for several months after individual events. Associated stratospheric ozone decreases of >lo% were calculated

  2. Variability of space climate and its extremes with successive solar cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Sandra; Hush, Phillip; Tindale, Elisabeth; Dunlop, Malcolm; Watkins, Nicholas

    2016-04-01

    Auroral geomagnetic indices coupled with in situ solar wind monitors provide a comprehensive data set, spanning several solar cycles. Space climate can be considered as the distribution of space weather. We can then characterize these observations in terms of changing space climate by quantifying how the statistical properties of ensembles of these observed variables vary between different phases of the solar cycle. We first consider the AE index burst distribution. Bursts are constructed by thresholding the AE time series; the size of a burst is the sum of the excess in the time series for each time interval over which the threshold is exceeded. The distribution of burst sizes is two component with a crossover in behaviour at thresholds ≈ 1000 nT. Above this threshold, we find[1] a range over which the mean burst size is almost constant with threshold for both solar maxima and minima. The burst size distribution of the largest events has a functional form which is exponential. The relative likelihood of these large events varies from one solar maximum and minimum to the next. If the relative overall activity of a solar maximum/minimum can be estimated, these results then constrain the likelihood of extreme events of a given size for that solar maximum/minimum. We next develop and apply a methodology to quantify how the full distribution of geomagnetic indices and upstream solar wind observables are changing between and across different solar cycles. This methodology[2] estimates how different quantiles of the distribution, or equivalently, how the return times of events of a given size, are changing. [1] Hush, P., S. C. Chapman, M. W. Dunlop, and N. W. Watkins (2015), Robust statistical properties of the size of large burst events in AE, Geophys. Res. Lett.,42 doi:10.1002/2015GL066277 [2] Chapman, S. C., D. A. Stainforth, N. W. Watkins, (2013) On estimating long term local climate trends , Phil. Trans. Royal Soc., A,371 20120287 DOI:10.1098/rsta.2012.0287

  3. Evidence for a Strong Correlation of Solar Proton Events with Solar Radio Bursts

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiao-Cong Li; Lian-Sheng Kang

    2005-01-01

    A statistical analysis is made on the correlation between solar proton events with energies > 10Mev and solar radio bursts during the four-year period from 1997 November to 2000 November. We examine 28 solar proton events and their corresponding solar radio bursts at 15400, 8800, 4995, 2695, 1415, 606, 410 and 245 MHz. The statistical result shows that there is a close association between solar proton events and ≥ 3 solar radio bursts occurring at several frequencies, one or two days before. In particular, it is noteworthy that proton events occurring in pairs within the same month are preceded 1-2 days by individual radio bursts and most of the radio bursts of solar flares occur at all eight frequencies. Those 245 MHz radio bursts associated with proton events have intense peak fluxes (up to 67000 sfu). Solar proton events are preceded 1 or 2 days by ≥ 3 radio bursts at several frequencies and proton events occurring in pairs within the same month are preceded 1 or 2 days by some individual radio bursts. These correlations may be used for providing short-term or medium-term prediction of solar proton events.

  4. Evaluation of extreme temperature events in northern Spain based on process control charts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villeta, M.; Valencia, J. L.; Saá, A.; Tarquis, A. M.

    2017-02-01

    Extreme climate events have recently attracted the attention of a growing number of researchers because these events impose a large cost on agriculture and associated insurance planning. This study focuses on extreme temperature events and proposes a new method for their evaluation based on statistical process control tools, which are unusual in climate studies. A series of minimum and maximum daily temperatures for 12 geographical areas of a Spanish region between 1931 and 2009 were evaluated by applying statistical process control charts to statistically test whether evidence existed for an increase or a decrease of extreme temperature events. Specification limits were determined for each geographical area and used to define four types of extreme anomalies: lower and upper extremes for the minimum and maximum anomalies. A new binomial Markov extended process that considers the autocorrelation between extreme temperature events was generated for each geographical area and extreme anomaly type to establish the attribute control charts for the annual fraction of extreme days and to monitor the occurrence of annual extreme days. This method was used to assess the significance of changes and trends of extreme temperature events in the analysed region. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of an attribute control chart for evaluating extreme temperature events. For example, the evaluation of extreme maximum temperature events using the proposed statistical process control charts was consistent with the evidence of an increase in maximum temperatures during the last decades of the last century.

  5. Solar Cycle Variations of Fe-rich SEP Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cane, H. V.; Richardson, I. G.

    2006-12-01

    An investigation of the characteristics of large solar energetic particle (SEP) events with >25 MeV/nuc event- -averaged Fe/O above 0.5 shows that such events have a rapid rise to maximum intensity and little evidence of particle acceleration at the passage of an interplanetary shock in this energy range. We explore the reasons why such events were not seen by near--Earth spacecraft in 2004 and 2005. One reason, that we have already documented, is that fast shocks (transit speeds above 1000 km/s) are relatively more common after solar maximum. The disappearance of Fe--rich events late in Cycle 23 has been used by Tylka et al. (2006) to argue for the absence of flare particles both as seed particles for shocks and as direct contributors to large SEP events. However, such arguments ignore the fact that there were no events with the other characteristics of Fe-rich events.

  6. Reconstruction of Solar Extreme Ultraviolet Flux 1740 - 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svalgaard, Leif

    2016-11-01

    Solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiation creates the conducting E-layer of the ionosphere, mainly by photo-ionization of molecular oxygen. Solar heating of the ionosphere creates thermal winds, which by dynamo action induce an electric field driving an electric current having a magnetic effect observable on the ground, as was discovered by G. Graham in 1722. The current rises and falls with the Sun, and thus causes a readily observable diurnal variation of the geomagnetic field, allowing us to deduce the conductivity and thus the EUV flux as far back as reliable magnetic data reach. High-quality data go back to the "Magnetic Crusade" of the 1830s and less reliable, but still usable, data are available for portions of the 100 years before that. J.R. Wolf and, independently, J.-A. Gautier discovered the dependence of the diurnal variation on solar activity, and today we understand and can invert that relationship to construct a reliable record of the EUV flux from the geomagnetic record. We compare that to the F_{10.7} flux and the sunspot number, and we find that the reconstructed EUV flux reproduces the F_{10.7} flux with great accuracy. On the other hand, it appears that the Relative Sunspot Number as currently defined is beginning to no longer be a faithful representation of solar magnetic activity, at least as measured by the EUV and related indices. The reconstruction suggests that the EUV flux reaches the same low (but non-zero) value at every sunspot minimum (possibly including Grand Minima), representing an invariant "solar magnetic ground state".

  7. Solar sources of the geoeffective events in September 2011

    CERN Document Server

    Palacios, J; Cid, C; Saiz, E; Cerrato, Y

    2014-01-01

    We investigate the geoeffective events happened from 8 to 20 Sept 2011, analysing the most plausible solar sources of these events, where coronal mass ejections and coronal holes play a fundamental role. The physical properties of the coronal holes, such as area and magnetic field, are studied through the Solar Dynamics Observatory instruments: AIA 193 {\\AA} images and HMI longitudinal magnetograms. The active regions which are the origin of the coronal mass ejections are analysed in AIA and SoHO-LASCO data.

  8. Reconstruction of Solar Extreme Ultraviolet Flux 1740-2015

    CERN Document Server

    Svalgaard, Leif

    2015-01-01

    Solar Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) radiation creates the conducting E-layer of the ionosphere, mainly by photo ionization of molecular Oxygen. Solar heating of the ionosphere creates thermal winds which by dynamo action induce an electric field driving an electric current having a magnetic effect observable on the ground, as was discovered by G. Graham in 1722. The current rises and sets with the Sun and thus causes a readily observable diurnal variation of the geomagnetic field, allowing us the deduce the conductivity and thus the EUV flux as far back as reliable magnetic data reach. High-quality data go back to the 'Magnetic Crusade' of the 1830s and less reliable, but still usable, data are available for portions of the hundred years before that. J.R. Wolf and, independently, J.-A. Gautier discovered the dependence of the diurnal variation on solar activity, and today we understand and can invert that relationship to construct a reliable record of the EUV flux from the geomagnetic record. We compare that to t...

  9. Acute effects of solar particle event radiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, Ann R.; Weissman, Drew; Sanzari, Jenine K.; Krigsfeld, Gabriel S.; Wan, X. Steven; Romero-Weaver, Ana L.; Diffenderfer, Eric S.; Lin, L.; Cengel, K.

    2014-01-01

    A major solar particle event (SPE) may place astronauts at significant risk for the acute radiation syndrome (ARS), which may be exacerbated when combined with other space flight stressors, such that the mission or crew health may be compromised. The National Space Biomedical Research Institute (NSBRI) Center of Acute Radiation Research (CARR) is focused on the assessment of risks of adverse biological effects related to the ARS in animals exposed to space flight stressors combined with the types of radiation expected during an SPE. The CARR studies are focused on the adverse biological effects resulting from exposure to the types of radiation, at the appropriate energies, doses and dose-rates, present during an SPE (and standard reference radiations: gamma rays or electrons). All animal studies described have been approved by the University of PA IACUC. Some conclusions from recent CARR investigations are as follows: (i) the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) values for SPE-like protons compared with standard reference radiations (gammas or electrons) for white blood cells (WBCs) vary greatly between mice, ferrets and pigs, with the RBE values being greater in ferrets than those in mice, and considerably greater in pigs compared with those in ferrets or mice [1, 2]. This trend for the data suggests that the RBE values for WBCs in humans could be considerably greater than those observed in small mammals, and SPE proton radiation may be far more hazardous to humans than previously estimated from small animal studies. (ii) Very low doses of SPE proton radiation (25 cGy) increase blood clotting times in ferrets, and the low SPE-like dose rate has more severe effects than high dose rate radiation [3]. (iii) Results from pig and ferret studies suggest that disseminated intravascular coagulation is a major cause of death at doses near the LD50 level for SPE-like proton and gamma radiation. (iv) Exposure to SPE-like proton or gamma radiation, in combination with

  10. Seed population in large Solar Energetic Particle events and the twin-CME scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Ding, Liu-Guan; Le, Gui-Ming; Gu, Bin; Cao, Xin-Xin

    2016-01-01

    It has been recently suggested that large solar energetic particle (SEP) events are often caused by twin CMEs. In the twin-CME scenario, the preceding CME is to provide both an enhanced turbulence level and enhanced seed population at the main CME-driven shock. In this work, we study the effect of the preceding CMEs on the seed population. We examine event-integrated abundance of iron to oxygen ratio (Fe/O) at energies above 25 MeV/nuc for large SEP events in solar cycle 23. We find that the Fe/O ratio (normalized to the reference coronal value of $0.134$) $\\leq2.0$ for almost all single-CME events and these events tend to have smaller peak intensities. In comparison, the Fe/O ratio of twin-CME events scatters in a larger range, reaching as high as $8$, suggesting the presence of flare material from perhaps preceding flares. For extremely large SEP events with peak intensity above $1000$ pfu, the Fe/O drop below $2$, indicating that in these extreme events the seed particles are dominated by coronal material ...

  11. Size Distributions of Solar Proton Events: Methodological and Physical Restrictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miroshnichenko, L. I.; Yanke, V. G.

    2016-12-01

    Based on the new catalogue of solar proton events (SPEs) for the period of 1997 - 2009 (Solar Cycle 23) we revisit the long-studied problem of the event-size distributions in the context of those constructed for other solar-flare parameters. Recent results on the problem of size distributions of solar flares and proton events are briefly reviewed. Even a cursory acquaintance with this research field reveals a rather mixed and controversial picture. We concentrate on three main issues: i) SPE size distribution for {>} 10 MeV protons in Solar Cycle 23; ii) size distribution of {>} 1 GV proton events in 1942 - 2014; iii) variations of annual numbers for {>} 10 MeV proton events on long time scales (1955 - 2015). Different results are critically compared; most of the studies in this field are shown to suffer from vastly different input datasets as well as from insufficient knowledge of underlying physical processes in the SPEs under consideration. New studies in this field should be made on more distinct physical and methodological bases. It is important to note the evident similarity in size distributions of solar flares and superflares in Sun-like stars.

  12. Atmospheric rivers and cool season extreme precipitation events in Arizona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivera Fernandez, Erick Reinaldo

    Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are important contributors to cool season precipitation in the Southwestern US, and in some cases can lead to extreme hydrometeorological events in the region. We performed a climatological analysis and identified two predominant types of ARs that affect the central mountainous region in Arizona: Type 1 ARs originate in the tropics near Hawaii (central Pacific) and enhance their moisture in the midlatitudes, with maximum moisture transport over the ocean at low-levels of the troposphere. On the other hand, moisture in Type 2 ARs has a more direct tropical origin and meridional orientation with maximum moisture transfer at mid-levels. We then analyze future projections of Southwest ARs in a suite of global and regional climate models used in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP), to evaluate projected future changes in the frequency and intensity of ARs under warmer global climate conditions. We find a consistent and clear intensification of the water vapor transport associated with the ARs that impinge upon Arizona and adjacent regions, however, the response of AR-related precipitation intensity to increased moisture flux and column-integrated water vapor is weak and no robust variations are projected either by the global or the regional NARCCAP models. To evaluate the effect of horizontal resolution and improve our physical understanding of these results, we numerically simulated a historical AR event using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at a 3-km resolution. We then performed a pseudo-global warming experiment by modifying the lateral and lower boundary conditions to reflect possible changes in future ARs (as projected by the ensemble of global model simulations used for NARCCAP). Interestingly we find that despite higher specific humidity, some regions still receive less rainfall in the warming climate experiments - partially due to changes in thermodynamics, but primarily due to AR

  13. The XIV Global Warming International Conference & Expo (GWXIV)——Global extreme events

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JamesA.Roberts

    2004-01-01

    The focus of this year's conference is Global Extreme Events, characterized as large-scale climatic effects that have been increasing in magnitude and frequency. Prof. Sinyan Shen, Chairman of the GW International Program Committee, has been leading the world on Global Extreme Events and Emergency Response. In the long term climate change will cause the Earth to transit to another equilibrium state through many oscillations in climatic pattern. Global warming causes extreme events and bad weather in the near term. The immediate

  14. Possible Impact of the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation on Extreme Hot Events in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUN Jian-Qi

    2012-01-01

    This paper reveals that the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) is closely related to the extreme hot event (EHE) variability in China during the period of 1979 2009, with a positive-phase (negative-phase) SNAO corresponding to less (more) EHEs in northern China. The summer circulation anomalies associated with the SNAO give further confirmation of the above relationship. In a positive-phase (negative-phase) SNAO year, there is an anomalous cyclone (anticyclone) over central East Asia, which can increase (decrease) the total cloud cover over this region. Such changes of the total cloud cover can then decrease (increase) the solar radiation reaching the surface, which is consequently unfavorable (favorable) to the formation of EHEs over northern China.

  15. Experimental Comparison of Extreme-Ultraviolet Multilayers for Solar Physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Windt, David L.; Donguy, Soizik; Seely, John; Kjornrattanawanich, Benjawan

    2004-03-01

    We compare the reflectance and stability of multilayers comprising either Si/Mo, Si/Mo2C, Si/B4C, Si/C, or Si/SiC bilayers, designed for use as extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) reflective coatings. The films were deposited by using magnetron sputtering and characterized by both x-ray and EUV reflectometry. We find that the new Si/SiC multilayer offers the greatest spectral selectivity at the longer wavelengths, as well as the greatest thermal stability. We also describe the optimization of multilayers designed for the Solar-B EIS instrument. Finally, we compare experimental reflectance data with calculations and conclude that currently available optical constants cannot be used to adequately model the performance of many of these multilayers.

  16. Representing Extreme Temperature Events and Resolving Their Implications for Yield

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huybers, P. J.; Mueller, N. D.; Butler, E. E.; Tingley, M.; McKinnon, K. A.; Rhines, A. N.

    2014-12-01

    Although it is well recognized that extreme temperatures occurring at particular growth stages are destructive to yield, there appears substantial scope for improved empirical assessment and simulation of the relationship between temperature and yield. Several anecdotes are discussed. First, a statistical analysis of historical U.S. extreme temperatures is provided. It is demonstrated that both reanalysis and model simulations significantly differ from near-surface temperature observations in the frequency and magnitude of extremes. This finding supports empirical assessment using near-surface instrumental records and underscores present difficulties in simulating past and predicting future changes. Second, an analysis of the implications of extreme temperatures on U.S. maize yield is provided where the response is resolved regionally and according to growth stage. Sensitivity to extreme temperatures during silking is found to be uniformly high across the U.S., but the response during grain filling varies spatially, with higher sensitivity in the North. This regional and growth-stage dependent sensitivity implies the importance of representing cultivar, planting times, and development rates, and is also indicative of the potential for future changes according to the combined effects of climate and technology. Finally, interaction between extreme temperatures and agriculture is indicated by analysis showing that historical extreme temperatures in the U.S. Midwest have cooled in relation to changes in regional productivity, possibly because of greater potential for cooling through evapotranspiration. This interpretation is consistent with changes in crop physiology and management, though also noteworthy is that the moderating influence of increased evapotranspiration on extreme temperatures appears to be lost during severe drought. Together, these findings indicate that a more accurate assessment of the historical relationship between extreme temperatures and yield

  17. Climate change impacts on extreme events in the United States: an uncertainty analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves, droughts and severe precipitation events, have substantial impacts on ecosystems and the economy. However, future climate simulations display large uncertainty in mean changes. As a result, the uncertainty in future changes ...

  18. An Urban Resilience to Extreme Weather Events Framework for Development of Post Event Learning and Transformative Adaptation in Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solecki, W. D.; Friedman, E. S.; Breitzer, R.

    2016-12-01

    Increasingly frequent extreme weather events are becoming an immediate priority for urban coastal practitioners and stakeholders, adding complexity to decisions concerning risk management for short-term action and long-term needs of city climate stakeholders. The conflict between the prioritization of short versus long-term events by decision-makers creates disconnect between climate science and its applications. The Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast (CCRUN), a NOAA RISA team, is developing a set of mechanisms to help bridge this gap. The mechanisms are designed to promote the application of climate science on extreme weather events and their aftermath. It is in the post event policy window where significant opportunities for science-policy linkages exist. In particular, CCRUN is interested in producing actionable and useful information for city managers to use in decision-making processes surrounding extreme weather events and climate change. These processes include a sector specific needs assessment survey instrument and two tools for urban coastal practitioners and stakeholders. The tools focus on post event learning and connections between resilience and transformative adaptation. Elements of the two tools are presented. Post extreme event learning supports urban coastal practitioners and decision-makers concerned about maximizing opportunities for knowledge transfer and assimilation, and policy initiation and development following an extreme weather event. For the urban U.S. Northeast, post event learning helps coastal stakeholders build the capacity to adapt to extreme weather events, and inform and develop their planning capacity through analysis of past actions and steps taken in response to Hurricane Sandy. Connecting resilience with transformative adaptation is intended to promote resilience in urban Northeast coastal settings to the long-term negative consequences of extreme weather events. This is done through a knowledge co

  19. Data-driven prediction and prevention of extreme events in a spatially extended excitable system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bialonski, Stephan; Ansmann, Gerrit; Kantz, Holger

    2015-10-01

    Extreme events occur in many spatially extended dynamical systems, often devastatingly affecting human life, which makes their reliable prediction and efficient prevention highly desirable. We study the prediction and prevention of extreme events in a spatially extended system, a system of coupled FitzHugh-Nagumo units, in which extreme events occur in a spatially and temporally irregular way. Mimicking typical constraints faced in field studies, we assume not to know the governing equations of motion and to be able to observe only a subset of all phase-space variables for a limited period of time. Based on reconstructing the local dynamics from data and despite being challenged by the rareness of events, we are able to predict extreme events remarkably well. With small, rare, and spatiotemporally localized perturbations which are guided by our predictions, we are able to completely suppress extreme events in this system.

  20. Water Detected in the Terrestrial Zone of Extreme Solar Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farihi, Jay

    2015-12-01

    Life as we know it requires water in contact with a rocky planetary surface. In the Solar System, water and other volatiles must have been delivered to a dry Earth from planetesimals, where asteroids in the outer main belt and Jupiter-Saturn region are excellent candidates. The first extrasolar analog of these rocky and water-rich planetesimals was reported between ESS II and III (Farihi et al. 2013, Science, 342, 218), and there is now evidence for additional examples. These results imply an underlying population of large, extrasolar planetesimals formed near a snow line, and suggesting a common mechanism for water delivery to habitable exoplanets.I will present Hubble, Spitzer, and ground-based data that demonstrate the confirmed and likely water-rich nature of exo-asteroids identified in a growing number of white dwarf planetary systems. These extreme solar systems formed and evolved around A-type (and similar) stars -- now firmly retired -- and the asteroid debris now orbits and pollutes the white dwarf with heavy elements, including oxygen in excess of that expected for oxide minerals. The abundance patterns are also carbon-poor, indicating the parent bodies were not icy planetesimals analogous to comets, but instead similar in overall composition to asteroids in the outer main belt.Importantly, these remnant exoplanetary systems imply architectures similar to the Solar System, where a giant planet exterior to a snow line perturbs rocky asteroids on the interior. Thus, they appear to share basic characteristics with HR 8799, Vega, Fomalhaut, and epsilon Eridani where two disks of debris are separated by giant planet(s), with one belt near the snow line. If such archictectures are as common as implied by polluted white dwarfs, then at least 30% of 1.2-3.0 Msun stars have both the tools and ingredentients for water delivery in their terrestrial planet zones.

  1. Predicting Flares and Solar Energetic Particle Events: The FORSPEF Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anastasiadis, A.; Papaioannou, A.; Sandberg, I.; Georgoulis, M.; Tziotziou, K.; Kouloumvakos, A.; Jiggens, P.

    2017-09-01

    A novel integrated prediction system for solar flares (SFs) and solar energetic particle (SEP) events is presented here. The tool called forecasting solar particle events and flares (FORSPEF) provides forecasts of solar eruptive events, such as SFs with a projection to occurrence and velocity of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and the likelihood of occurrence of an SEP event. In addition, the tool provides nowcasting of SEP events based on actual SF and CME near real-time data, as well as the SEP characteristics ( e.g. peak flux, fluence, rise time, and duration) per parent solar event. The prediction of SFs relies on the effective connected magnetic field strength (B_{eff}) metric, which is based on an assessment of potentially flaring active-region (AR) magnetic configurations, and it uses a sophisticated statistical analysis of a large number of AR magnetograms. For the prediction of SEP events, new statistical methods have been developed for the likelihood of the SEP occurrence and the expected SEP characteristics. The prediction window in the forecasting scheme is 24 hours with a refresh rate of 3 hours, while the respective prediction time for the nowcasting scheme depends on the availability of the near real-time data and ranges between 15 - 20 minutes for solar flares and 6 hours for CMEs. We present the modules of the FORSPEF system, their interconnection, and the operational setup. Finally, we demonstrate the validation of the modules of the FORSPEF tool using categorical scores constructed on archived data, and we also discuss independent case studies.

  2. Recurring 3He-rich Solar Energetic Particle Events

    CERN Document Server

    Bucik, R; Mall, U; Korth, A; Mason, G M

    2013-01-01

    Using the SIT instrument aboard STEREO we have examined the abundance of the 3He during the ascending phase of solar cycle 24 from January 2010 through December 2012. We report on several cases when 3He-rich solar energetic particle events were successively observed on ACE and STEREO-A with delays consistent with the Carrington rotation rate. In the investigated period ACE and STEREO-A were significantly separated in the heliolongitude corresponding to solar rotation times of 5 to 10 days. We inspect STEREO-A EUV images and use the potential-field source-surface extrapolations together with in-situ magnetic field data to identify responsible solar sources. We find the 3He/4He ratio highly variable in these events and correlated between the spacecraft for the cases with the same connection region on the Sun.

  3. Prediction of solar energetic particle event histories using real-time particle and solar wind measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roelof, E. C.; Gold, R. E.

    1978-01-01

    The comparatively well-ordered magnetic structure in the solar corona during the decline of Solar Cycle 20 revealed a characteristic dependence of solar energetic particle injection upon heliographic longitude. When analyzed using solar wind mapping of the large scale interplanetary magnetic field line connection from the corona to the Earth, particle fluxes display an approximately exponential dependence on heliographic longitude. Since variations in the solar wind velocity (and hence the coronal connection longitude) can severely distort the simple coronal injection profile, the use of real-time solar wind velocity measurements can be of great aid in predicting the decay of solar particle events. Although such exponential injection profiles are commonplace during 1973-1975, they have also been identified earlier in Solar Cycle 20, and hence this structure may be present during the rise and maximum of the cycle, but somewhat obscured by greater temporal variations in particle injection.

  4. The December 2008 flood event in Rome: Was it really an extreme event?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lastoria, B.; Mariani, S.; Casaioli, M.; Bussettini, M.

    2009-04-01

    In mid December 2008, Italy suffered bad weather with heavy snowfall blanketing the north and strong winds and downpours pelting the centre-south. In particular, during the period between 10th and 12th December, intense precipitation struck the Tyrrhenian Sea side of the peninsula, inducing a flood event, which captured the attention of the national and international media, on the Tiber river and on its tributary, the Aniene. The relevance of the event was caused by the actual damages occurred in several zones over Rome area, in particular due to the downpours and to damages which would have occurred if Tiber river had overflowed its banks. The event, which was initially considered as extreme, was indeed severe but not so exceptional as shown by the meteo-hydrological post-event analysis. The peak water level of 12.55 m, recorded on 13th December at 1:30 a.m. (local time) at the Ripetta station, which is situated along the Tiber river in the centre of Rome, was higher than those observed during the last ten years (which to the utmost reached 11.41 m in December 2005). However, it did not reach the historical maximum of 16.90 m observed in 1937. Moreover, on the basis of the Ripetta historical series, such a level is associated to an ordinary flood event. Even if the flood was ordinary, a state of emergency was declared by the Rome's Mayor, since the event caused severe damages by disrupting flight and train services, blocking off major roads leading into Rome, flooding underpasses and sealing off industrial activities sited in the flooded areas, in particular nearby the confluence of the Aniene river with the Tiber river. In addition, hundreds of people were evacuated and a woman died in a her car which was submerged by a wave of water and mud in an underpass. Given these premises, the present work examines the relation between a severe, but not extraordinary, event and the considerable damages that occurred as a consequence. First, the meteorological evolution of

  5. Enhancement of stratospheric aerosols after solar proton event

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. I. Shumilov

    Full Text Available The lidar measurements at Verhnetulomski observatory (68.6°N, 31.8°E at Kola peninsula detected a considerable increase of stratospheric aerosol concentration after the solar proton event of GLE (ground level event type on the 16/02/84. This increase was located at precisely the same altitude range where the energetic solar protons lost their energy in the atmosphere. The aerosol layer formed precipitated quickly (1–2 km per day during 18, 19, and 20 February 1984, and the increase of R(H (backscattering ratio at 17 km altitude reached 40% on 20/02/84. We present the model calculation of CN (condensation nuclei altitude distribution on the basis of an ion-nucleation mechanism, taking into account the experimental energy distribution of incident solar protons. The meteorological situation during the event was also investigated.

  6. Impacts of the Future Changes in Extreme Events on the Regional Crop Yield in Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Nazan; Turp, M. Tufan; Ozturk, Tugba; Kurnaz, M. Levent

    2016-04-01

    The changes in extreme events caused by climate change have the greatest impact on agricultural sector specifically crop yield. Therefore, it requires a clear understanding of how extreme events affect the crop yield and how it causes high economic losses. In this research, we cover the relationship between extreme events and the crop yield in Turkey for the period of 2020 - 2045 with respect to 1980 - 2005. We focus on the role of those extreme event causing natural disasters on the regional crop yield. This research comprises 2 parts. In the first part, the projection is performed according to the business as usual scenario of IPCC, RCP8.5, via the RegCM4.4 in order to obtain extreme event indices required for the crop assessment. In the second part, the crop yield and the extreme event indices are combined by applying the econometric analysis in order to see the relationship between natural disasters and crop yield. The risks for crop yield caused by the extreme events are estimated and interpreted. This study aims to assess the effect of frequency of expected extreme events on the crop yield at the cropland of Turkey. This research has been supported by Boǧaziçi University Research Fund Grant Number 10421.

  7. National vulnerability to extreme climatic events: the cases of electricity disruption in China and Japan

    OpenAIRE

    Jing-Li Fan; Qiao-Mei Liang; Xiao-Jie Liang; Hirokazu Tatano; Yoshio Kajitani; Yi-Ming Wei

    2014-01-01

    Extreme climatic events are likely to adversely affect many countries throughout the world, but the degrees among countries may be different. China and Japan are the countries with high incidences of extreme weather/disaster, both facing with the urgent task of addressing climate change. This study seeks to quantitatively compare the impacts of extreme climatic events on socio-economic systems (defined as vulnerability) of the two countries by simulating the consequences of hypothetical the s...

  8. Spatio-temporal extreme events in a laser with a saturable absorber

    CERN Document Server

    Rimoldi, Cristina; Prati, Franco; Tissoni, Giovanna

    2016-01-01

    We study extreme events occurring in the transverse $(x,y)$ section of the field emitted by a broad-area semiconductor laser with a saturable absorber. The spatio-temporal events on which we perform the statistical analysis are identified as maxima of the field intensity in the 3D space $(x,y,t)$. We identify regions in the parameter space where extreme events are more likely to occur and we study the connection of those extreme events with the cavity solitons that are known to exist in the same system, both stationary and self-pulsing.

  9. Shock Versus Solar Flare Production of Heliospheric Relativistic Electron Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahler, S. W.; Cliver, E. W.

    2006-12-01

    Electrons with relativistic (E > 0.3 MeV) energies are often observed as discrete events in the inner heliosphere. Their sharp onsets and antisunward flows indicate that they are produced in solar transient events. In general their origins can be associated in time with both solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Unlike the solar energetic proton (SEP) and ion events, we do not have the advantage of particle elemental abundances and charge states as source diagnostics. We review the characteristics of the electron events observed on the Helios, Venera, ISEE-3, Phobos, and other inner heliospheric spacecraft to determine whether they are more likely to be produced by broad coronal shocks driven by CMEs or by solar flare processes associated with magnetic reconnection. Electron intensity-time profiles and energy spectra are compared with properties of flares and CMEs for this determination. Recent comparisons of peak electron and SEP event intensities provide strong evidence for the shock interpretation, but definitive results require the observations provided by the Sentinels mission.

  10. Soliciting Feedback from Resource Managers to Inform Response to Extreme Event Impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bedsworth, L. W.

    2014-12-01

    To date, extreme events have been defined by scientists through a top-down approach, relying on observations for current extremes and climate model projections based on future scenarios for their expected changes. These abstract definitions of extreme events are based on a corresponding characterization of what is "normal" and perhaps the choice of a threshold (e.g., a percentile of a historical distribution for a given climate variable), beyond which would represent an extreme event. However, there are not necessarily direct connections between these definitions and what is considered "extreme" in terms of impacts that challenge resource management. Several researchers have suggested that extreme event definitions would also be informed by input from on-the-ground resource managers who are familiar with the systems being impacted, the climate conditions that pose risks to those systems, and their resilience and adaptive capacity. This research will present preliminary survey work designed to solicit input from air and water quality managers in terms of what is considered an extreme event, how these events have been weathered in the past, and planned for in the future. The survey is based on literature review, interviews with air and water quality managers in California, and outreach to the scientific community. This work is the first step of a multistage research effort to link input from resource managers with scientific information to better inform air and water quality management and impacts of extreme events under a changing climate.

  11. Solar cosmic rays during the extremely high ground level enhancement on 23 February 1956

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Belov

    2005-09-01

    Full Text Available The 23 February 1956 ground level enhancement of the solar cosmic ray intensity (GLE05 is the most famous among the proton events observed since 1942. But we do not have a great deal of information on this event due to the absence of solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field measurements at that time. Furthermore, there were no X-Ray or gamma observations and the information on the associated flare is limited. Cosmic ray data was obtained exclusively by ground level detectors of small size and in some cases of a non-standard design. In the present work all available data from neutron monitors operating in 1956 were analyzed, in order to develop a model of the solar cosmic ray behavior during the event. The time-dependent characteristics of the cosmic ray energy spectrum, cosmic ray anisotropy, and differential and integral fluxes have been evaluated utilizing different isotropic and anisotropic models. It is shown that the most outstanding features of this proton enhancement were a narrow and extremely intense beam of ultra-relativistic particles arriving at Earth just after the onset and the unusually high maximum solar particle energy. However, the contribution of this beam to the overall solar particle density and fluency was not significant because of its very short duration and small width. Our estimate of the integral flux for particles with energies over 100 MeV places this event above all subsequent. Perhaps the number of accelerated low energy particles was closer to a record value, but these particles passed mainly to the west of Earth.

    Many features of this GLE are apparently explained by the peculiarity of the particle interplanetary propagation from a remote (near the limb source. The quality of the available neutron monitor data does not allow us to be certain of some details; these may be cleared up by the incorporation into the analysis of data from muonic telescopes and ionization chambers

  12. Detecting impacts of extreme events with ecological in situ monitoring networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. D. Mahecha

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Extreme hydrometeorological conditions typically impact ecophysiological processes on land. Satellite-based observations of the terrestrial biosphere provide an important reference for detecting and describing the spatiotemporal development of such events. However, in-depth investigations of ecological processes during extreme events require additional in situ observations. The question is whether the density of existing ecological in situ networks is sufficient for analysing the impact of extreme events, and what are expected event detection rates of ecological in situ networks of a given size. To assess these issues, we build a baseline of extreme reductions in the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR, identified by a new event detection method tailored to identify extremes of regional relevance. We then investigate the event detection success rates of hypothetical networks of varying sizes. Our results show that large extremes can be reliably detected with relatively small networks, but also reveal a linear decay of detection probabilities towards smaller extreme events in log–log space. For instance, networks with  ≈  100 randomly placed sites in Europe yield a  ≥  90 % chance of detecting the eight largest (typically very large extreme events; but only a  ≥  50 % chance of capturing the 39 largest events. These findings are consistent with probability-theoretic considerations, but the slopes of the decay rates deviate due to temporal autocorrelation and the exact implementation of the extreme event detection algorithm. Using the examples of AmeriFlux and NEON, we then investigate to what degree ecological in situ networks can capture extreme events of a given size. Consistent with our theoretical considerations, we find that today's systematically designed networks (i.e. NEON reliably detect the largest extremes, but that the extreme event detection rates are not higher than would

  13. Prediction of aircrew radiation exposure during solar particle events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Les

    A transport code analysis using the Monte Carlo code MCNPX is used to propagate an extrapolated particle spectrum based on GOES satellite measurements through the atmosphere to estimate aircrew radiation exposure for solar particle events. Comparison between code predictions and actual flight measurements made during ground level event (GLE) 60 and 65 are presented. Data from ground-level neutron monitoring stations around the world are also compared against the model predictions for various events. A computer code has been further developed implementing this methodology for routine aircrew exposure estimation from solar particle events to supplement those predictions from galactic cosmic radiation using the PCAIRE code in order to better determine the overall aircrew exposure at altitude.

  14. Solar extreme ultraviolet sensor and advanced langmuir probe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voronka, N. R.; Block, B. P.; Carignan, G. R.

    1992-01-01

    For more than two decades, the staff of the Space Physics Research Laboratory (SPRL) has collaborated with the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) in the design and implementation of Langmuir probes (LP). This program of probe development under the direction of Larry Brace of GSFC has evolved methodically with innovations to: improve measurement precision, increase the speed of measurement, and reduce the weight, size, power consumption and data rate of the instrument. Under contract NAG5-419 these improvements were implemented and are what characterize the Advanced Langmuir Probe (ALP). Using data from the Langmuir Probe on the Pioneer Venus Orbiter, Brace and Walter Hoegy of GSFC demonstrated a novel method of monitoring the solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) flux. This led to the idea of developing a sensor similar to a Langmuir probe specifically designed to measure solar EUV (SEUV) that uses a similar electronics package. Under this contract, a combined instrument package of the ALP and SEUV sensor was to be designed, constructed, and laboratory tested. Finally the instrument was to be flight tested as part of sounding rocket experiment to acquire the necessary data to validate this method for possible use in future earth and planetary aeronomy missions. The primary purpose of this contract was to develop the electronics hardware and software for this instrument, since the actual sensors were suppied by GSFC. Due to budget constraints, only a flight model was constructed. These electronics were tested and calibrated in the laboratory, and then the instrument was integrated into the rocket payload at Wallops Flight Facility where it underwent environmental testing. After instrument recalibration at SPRL, the payload was reintegrated and launched from the Poker Flat Research Range near Fairbanks Alaska. The payload was successfully recovered and after refurbishment underwent further testing and developing to improve its performance for future use.

  15. Observed and projected urban extreme rainfall events in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Haider; Mishra, Vimal; Pai, D. S.

    2014-11-01

    We examine changes in extreme rainfall indices over 57 major urban areas in India under the observed (1901-2010) and projected future climate (2010-2060). Between 1901 and 2010, only four out of the total 57 urban areas showed a significant (p-value urban areas experienced significant increases in the extreme rainfall indices for the different periods. Moreover, rainfall maxima for 1-10 day durations and at 100 year return period did not change significantly over the majority of urban areas in the post-1955 period. Results do not indicate any significant change (p > 0.05) in the pooled mean and distribution of the extreme rainfall indices for the pre- and post-1983 periods revealing an insignificant role of urbanization on rainfall extremes in the major urban areas in India. We find that at the majority of urban areas changes in the extreme rainfall indices are driven by large scale climate variability. Regional Climate Models (RCMs) that participated in the CORDEX-South Asia program showed a significant bias in the monsoon maximum rainfall and rainfall maxima at 100 year return period for the majority of urban areas. For instance, most of the models fail to simulate rainfall maxima within ±10% bias, which can be considered appropriate for a storm water design at many urban areas. Rainfall maxima at 1-3 day durations and 100 year return period is projected to increase significantly under the projected future climate at the majority of urban areas in India. The number of urban areas with significant increases in rainfall maxima under the projected future climate is far larger than the number of areas that experienced significant changes in the historic climate (1901-2010), which warrants a careful attention for urban storm water infrastructure planning and management.

  16. Multispacecraft observations of the terrestrial bow shock and magnetopause during extreme solar wind disturbances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Tátrallyay

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Three events are discussed from the declining phase of the last solar cycle when the magnetopause and/or the bow shock were observed unusually close to the Earth due to major interplanetary disturbances. The observed extreme locations of the discontinuities are compared with the predictions of three magnetopause and four bow shock models which describe them in considerably different ways using statistical methods based on observations. A new 2-D magnetopause model is introduced (based on Verigin et al., 2009 which takes into account the pressure of the compressed magnetosheath field raised by the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF component transverse to the solar wind flow. The observed magnetopause crossings could be predicted with a reasonable accuracy (0.1–0.2 RE by one of the presented models at least. For geosynchronous magnetopause crossings observed by the GOES satellites, (1 the new model provided the best predictions when the IMF was extremely large having a large negative Bz component, and (2 the predictions of the model of Shue et al. (1998 agreed best with the observations when the solar wind dynamic pressure was extremely large. The magnetopause crossings close to the cusp observed by the Cluster spacecraft were best predicted by the 3-D model of Lin et al. (2010. The applied empirical bow shock models and the 3-D semi-empiric bow shock model combined with magnetohydrodynamic (MHD solution proved to be insufficient for predicting the observed unusual bow shock locations during large interplanetary disturbances. The results of a global 3-D MHD model were in good agreement with the Cluster observations on 17 January 2005, but they did not predict the bow shock crossings on 31 October 2003.

  17. Solar Wind Interaction with the Martian Upper Atmosphere at Early Mars/Extreme Solar Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, C.; Bougher, S. W.; Ma, Y.; Toth, G.; Lee, Y.; Nagy, A. F.; Tenishev, V.; Pawlowski, D. J.; Combi, M. R.

    2014-12-01

    The investigation of ion escape fluxes from Mars, resulting from the solar wind interaction with its upper atmosphere/ionosphere, is important due to its potential impact on the long-term evolution of Mars atmosphere (e.g., loss of water) over its history. In the present work, we adopt the 3-D Mars cold neutral atmosphere profiles (0 ~ 300 km) from the newly developed and validated Mars Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model (M-GITM) and the 3-D hot oxygen profiles (100 km ~ 5 RM) from the exosphere Monte Carlo model Adaptive Mesh Particle Simulator (AMPS). We apply these 3-D model output fields into the 3-D BATS-R-US Mars multi-fluid MHD (MF-MHD) model (100 km ~ 20 RM) that can simulate the interplay between Mars upper atmosphere and solar wind by considering the dynamics of individual ion species. The multi-fluid MHD model solves separate continuity, momentum and energy equations for each ion species (H+, O+, O2+, CO2+). The M-GITM model together with the AMPS exosphere model take into account the effects of solar cycle and seasonal variations on both cold and hot neutral atmospheres. This feature allows us to investigate the corresponding effects on the Mars upper atmosphere ion escape by using a one-way coupling approach, i.e., both the M-GITM and AMPS model output fields are used as the input for the multi-fluid MHD model and the M-GITM is used as input into the AMPS exosphere model. In this study, we present M-GITM, AMPS, and MF-MHD calculations (1-way coupled) for 2.5 GYA conditions and/or extreme solar conditions for present day Mars (high solar wind velocities, high solar wind dynamic pressure, and high solar irradiance conditions, etc.). Present day extreme conditions may result in MF-MHD outputs that are similar to 2.5 GYA cases. The crustal field orientations are also considered in this study. By comparing estimates of past ion escape rates with the current ion loss rates to be returned by the MAVEN spacecraft (2013-2016), we can better constrain the

  18. Major Space Weather Events during the Weak Solar Cycle 24

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopalswamy, Natchimuthuk

    2012-01-01

    We report on the level of solar activity during cycles 23 and 24 as the cycles build toward the corresponding solar maxima. The prolonged minimum period that followed solar cycle 23 and the weaker magnetic field at the poles seem to have resulted in a weaker level of activity during cycle 24. The double speak structure often observed in the maximum phases seems to be present during cycle 24, with the first peak having a sunspot number of only N90. large solar energetic particle (SEP) events, major geomagnetic storms, and radio-emitting interplanetary shocks have been observed in relatively sma:ier numbers. While the number of large SEP events during the rise phase of cycles 24 is not too different from that of cycle 23, they are generally less intense. Five ground level enhancement (GlE) events occurred up to the first activity peak in cycle 23, while a lone GlE event has been observed during the corresponding phase in cycle 24. There were 35 large (Dst S -100 nT) geomagnetic storms during the first 4.5 years of cycle 23, while only 5 occurred during cycle 24. The subdued activity during cycle 23 is consistent with the low numbers of type II radio bursts, full halo CMEs, and interplanetary shocks.

  19. Ions Preheated in 3He-Rich Solar Particle Events

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王德焴

    2003-01-01

    A wave-particle resonance absorption model in the two-ion plasma is suggested in explanation to the coronal ions preheating in 3He-rich solar particle events. It is found that 3He and Fe ions are preferably preheated by the ion-ion hybrid waves at their fundamental and second harmonic ion cyclotron frequencies, respectively.

  20. Seasonal and regional variations in extreme precipitation event frequency using CMIP5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janssen, E.; Sriver, R. L.; Wuebbles, D. J.; Kunkel, K. E.

    2016-05-01

    Understanding how the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are changing is important for regional risk assessments and adaptation planning. Here we use observational data and an ensemble of climate change model experiments (from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)) to examine past and potential future seasonal changes in extreme precipitation event frequency over the United States. Using the extreme precipitation index as a metric for extreme precipitation change, we find key differences between models and observations. In particular, the CMIP5 models tend to overestimate the number of spring events and underestimate the number of summer events. This seasonal shift in the models is amplified in projections. These results provide a basis for evaluating climate model skill in simulating observed seasonality and changes in regional extreme precipitation. Additionally, we highlight key sources of variability and uncertainty that can potentially inform regional impact analyses and adaptation planning.

  1. SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS AND THE KIPLINGER EFFECT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kahler, S. W., E-mail: AFRL.RVB.PA@hanscom.af.mil [Air Force Research Laboratory, RVBXS, 3550 Aberdeen Avenue, Kirtland AFB, NM 87117 (United States)

    2012-03-01

    The Kiplinger effect is an observed association of solar energetic (E > 10 MeV) particle (SEP) events with a 'soft-hard-harder' (SHH) spectral evolution during the extended phases of the associated solar hard (E > 30 keV) X-ray (HXR) flares. Besides its possible use as a space weather predictor of SEP events, the Kiplinger effect has been interpreted as evidence of SEP production in the flare site itself, contradicting the widely accepted view that particles of large SEP events are predominately or entirely accelerated in shocks driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs). We review earlier work to develop flare soft X-ray (SXR) and HXR spectra as SEP event forecast tools and then examine recent Reuven Ramaty High-Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) evidence supporting the association of SHH HXR flares with large SEP events. We point out that ad hoc prediction criteria using the CME widths and SXR flare durations of associated RHESSI hard X-ray bursts (HXBs) can yield results comparable to those of the SHH prediction criteria. An examination of the RHESSI dynamic plots reveals several ambiguities in the determination of whether and when the SHH criteria are fulfilled, which must be quantified and applied consistently before an SHH-based predictive tool can be made. A comparative HXR spectral study beginning with the large population of relatively smaller SEP events has yet to be done, and we argue that those events will not be so well predicted by the SHH criteria. SHH HXR flares and CMEs are both components of large eruptive flare events, which accounts for the good connection of the SHH HXR flares with SEP events.

  2. Solar Energetic Particle Events and the Kiplinger Effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahler, S. W.

    2012-03-01

    The Kiplinger effect is an observed association of solar energetic (E > 10 MeV) particle (SEP) events with a "soft-hard-harder" (SHH) spectral evolution during the extended phases of the associated solar hard (E > 30 keV) X-ray (HXR) flares. Besides its possible use as a space weather predictor of SEP events, the Kiplinger effect has been interpreted as evidence of SEP production in the flare site itself, contradicting the widely accepted view that particles of large SEP events are predominately or entirely accelerated in shocks driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs). We review earlier work to develop flare soft X-ray (SXR) and HXR spectra as SEP event forecast tools and then examine recent Reuven Ramaty High-Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) evidence supporting the association of SHH HXR flares with large SEP events. We point out that ad hoc prediction criteria using the CME widths and SXR flare durations of associated RHESSI hard X-ray bursts (HXBs) can yield results comparable to those of the SHH prediction criteria. An examination of the RHESSI dynamic plots reveals several ambiguities in the determination of whether and when the SHH criteria are fulfilled, which must be quantified and applied consistently before an SHH-based predictive tool can be made. A comparative HXR spectral study beginning with the large population of relatively smaller SEP events has yet to be done, and we argue that those events will not be so well predicted by the SHH criteria. SHH HXR flares and CMEs are both components of large eruptive flare events, which accounts for the good connection of the SHH HXR flares with SEP events.

  3. Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, and Human Health Implications in the Asia Pacific Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashim, Jamal Hisham; Hashim, Zailina

    2016-03-01

    The Asia Pacific region is regarded as the most disaster-prone area of the world. Since 2000, 1.2 billion people have been exposed to hydrometeorological hazards alone through 1215 disaster events. The impacts of climate change on meteorological phenomena and environmental consequences are well documented. However, the impacts on health are more elusive. Nevertheless, climate change is believed to alter weather patterns on the regional scale, giving rise to extreme weather events. The impacts from extreme weather events are definitely more acute and traumatic in nature, leading to deaths and injuries, as well as debilitating and fatal communicable diseases. Extreme weather events include heat waves, cold waves, floods, droughts, hurricanes, tropical cyclones, heavy rain, and snowfalls. Globally, within the 20-year period from 1993 to 2012, more than 530 000 people died as a direct result of almost 15 000 extreme weather events, with losses of more than US$2.5 trillion in purchasing power parity.

  4. Forecasting extreme wave events in moderate and high sea states

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magnusson, Anne Karin; Reistad, Magnar; Bitner-Gregersen, Elzbieta Maria

    2013-04-01

    Empirical studies on measurements have not yet come to conclusive relations between occurrence of rogue waves and - parameters which could be forecasted . Theoretical and tank experiments have demonstrated that high spectral peakedness and low spectral width combined (high Benjamin-Feir instability index, Onorato et al., 2006) give higher probability of rogue wave occurrence. Directional spread seems to reduce the probability of occurrence of rogue waves in these studies. Many years of experience with forecasting and discussions with people working in ocean environment indicate that rogue waves may as well occur in crossing seas. This was also indicated in a study in the Maxwave project (Toffoli et al., 2003) and the EXTREME SEAS project (Toffoli et al., 2011). We have here experimented with some indexes describing both high BFI and crossing seas and run the WAM model for some North Sea storm cases. Wave distributions measured at Ekofisk are analysed in the different cases. References • Onorato, M., Osborne, A., Serio, M., Cavaleri, L., Brandini, C., and Stansberg, C.: Extreme waves, modulational instability and second order theory: wave flume experiments on irregular waves,Europ. J. Mech. B/Fluids, 25, 586-601, 2006. • Toffoli, A., Lefevre, J.M., Monbaliu, J., Savina, H., and Bitner-Gregersen, E., "Freak Waves:Clues for Prediction in Ship Accidents?", Proc. ISOPE'2003 Conf. Hawai, USA, 2003. • Toffoli A., Bitner-Gregersen E. M., Osborne A. R., Serio M. Monbaliu J., Onorato M. (2011) Extreme Waves in Random Crossing Seas: Laboratory Experiments and Numerical Simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 38, L06605, 5 pp. doi: 10.1029/2011.

  5. Predicting the extreme 2015/16 El Nino event

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Mpheshea, LE

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere model’s Niño3.4 SST forecast for January 2016 is presented, followed by an evaluation of the model’s ability to have predicted events of similar magnitude in the past. The January forecast, initialized in July...

  6. The relationship between extreme weather events and crop losses in central Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Li-Wei

    2017-09-01

    The frequency of extreme weather events, which cause severe crop losses, is increasing. This study investigates the relationship between crop losses and extreme weather events in central Taiwan from 2003 to 2015 and determines the main factors influencing crop losses. Data regarding the crop loss area and meteorological information were obtained from government agencies. The crops were categorised into the following five groups: `grains', `vegetables', `fruits', `flowers' and `other crops'. The extreme weather events and their synoptic weather patterns were categorised into six and five groups, respectively. The data were analysed using the z score, correlation coefficient and stepwise regression model. The results show that typhoons had the highest frequency of all extreme weather events (58.3%). The largest crop loss area (4.09%) was caused by two typhoons and foehn wind in succession. Extreme wind speed coupled with heavy rainfall is an important factor affecting the losses in the grain and vegetable groups. Extreme wind speed is a common variable that affects the loss of `grains', `vegetables', `fruits' and `flowers'. Consecutive extreme weather events caused greater crop losses than individual events. Crops with long production times suffered greater losses than those with short production times. This suggests that crops with physical structures that can be easily damaged and long production times would benefit from protected cultivation to maintain food security.

  7. Detailed Analysis of Solar Data Related to Historical Extreme Geomagnetic Storms: 1868 – 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lefèvre, Laure; Vennerstrøm, Susanne; Dumbović, Mateja

    2016-01-01

    An analysis of historical Sun–Earth connection events in the context of the most extreme space weather events of the last ∼ 150 years is presented. To identify the key factors leading to these extreme events, a sample of the most important geomagnetic storms was selected based mainly on the well-...

  8. High-energy solar particle events in cycle 24

    CERN Document Server

    Gopalswamy, Nat; Yashiro, Seiji; Xie, Hong; Akiyama, Sachiko; Thakur, Neeharika

    2015-01-01

    The Sun is already in the declining phase of cycle 24, but the paucity of high-energy solar energetic particle (SEP) events continues with only two ground level enhancement (GLE) events as of March 31, 2015. In an attempt to understand this, we considered all the large SEP events of cycle 24 that occurred until the end of 2014. We compared the properties of the associated CMEs with those in cycle 23. We found that the CME speeds in the sky plane were similar, but almost all those cycle-24 CMEs were halos. A significant fraction of (16%) of the frontside SEP events were associated with eruptive prominence events. CMEs associated with filament eruption events accelerate slowly and attain peak speeds beyond the typical GLE release heights. When we considered only western hemispheric events that had good connectivity to the CME nose, there were only 8 events that could be considered as GLE candidates. One turned out to be the first GLE event of cycle 24 (2012 May 17). In two events, the CMEs were very fast (>2000...

  9. Solar forced Dansgaard-Oeschger events and their phase relation with solar proxies

    CERN Document Server

    Braun, H; Chialvo, D R

    2008-01-01

    North Atlantic climate during glacial times was characterized by large-amplitude switchings, the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events, with an apparent tendency to recur preferably in multiples of about 1470 years. Recent work interpreted these intervals as resulting from a subharmonic response of a highly nonlinear system to quasi-periodic solar forcing plus noise. This hypothesis was challenged as inconsistent with the observed variability in the phase relation between proxies of solar activity and Greenland climate. Here we reject the claim of inconsistency by showing that this phase variability is a robust, generic feature of the nonlinear dynamics of DO events, as described by a model. This variability is expected from the fact that the events are threshold crossing events, resulting from a cooperative process between the periodic forcing and the noise. This process produces a fluctuating phase relation with the periodic forcing, consistent with proxies of solar activity and Greenland climate.

  10. Extreme drought events in Germany during the last 60 yrs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samaniego, L. E.; Kumar, R.; Zink, M.

    2011-12-01

    Droughts are among the most costly natural disasters because they heavily impact on the economy of a region as well as on its social and cultural activities. Droughts do not only occur in arid or semiarid regions but also in humid ones. The year 2007, for example, was the sunniest, hottest and driest in Germany in the last two centuries. In this case, it was too dry too early. As a result, the harvest was cut by half leading to enormous losses in the primary sector. Consumer prices of some agricultural products went up 26 percent. The purpose of this study is to identify the major agricultural and hydrological droughts in Germany since 1950 based on their severity, duration and areal extend. To achieve this goal, a 60-yr retrospective hydrological simulation of the land surface water budget over Germany was carried out with the process-based distributed hydrological model mHM. The model was forced with grided daily precipitation and temperature data at 4x4 km, and the model simulations were carried out at same spatial resolutions. Point measurement data from more than 5600 raingauges and about 1120 meteorological stations (DWD) were interpolated with EDK. Land cover change was also considered during this period. Drought indices were derived as monthly quantiles of the simulated fluxes which include root zone soil moisture and total runoff. A Gaussian kernel smoother was used to estimate these quantiles at each grid cell. A spatio-temporal cluster algorithm was used to consolidate all significant drought events. Main statistics such as magnitude, areal extend, duration, and severity were estimated only on those selected clusters. The mHM model was calibrated in major river basins giving Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies for daily discharge simulations greater than 0.8 in the evaluation period. Plausibility tests between the simulated mHM soil moisture and land surface temperature from MODIS and regional climate model reanalysis data compared well. Results indicated that

  11. An Ensemble Approach to Extreme Space Weather Event Probability -- A First Look

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonas, S.; Fronczyk, K.; McCarron, E.; Pratt, L. M.

    2015-12-01

    An extreme space weather event has the potential to disrupt or damage infrastructure systems and technologies that many societies rely on for economic and social wellbeing. Space weather events occur regularly, but extreme events occur less frequently with only several historical examples over the last 160 years. During the past decade, published works have (1) forensically examined the physical characteristics of the extreme historical events; and (2) discussed the probability or return rate of select extreme geomagnetic disturbances, including the 1859 Carrington event. Here we present an analysis of several of these studies. We created a unified statistical framework to visualize previous analyses, and developed a model from an ensemble using statistical methods. We look at geomagnetic disturbance probability across multiple return periods. We discuss what the most likely 100-year extreme event (a parameter of interest to policy makers and planners) and the return period for other extreme historical events. We discuss the current state of these analyses, their utility to policy makers and planners, the current limitations (in data and understanding) when compared to other hazards, and the gaps that need to be filled to enhance space weather risk assessments.

  12. Changes in Climate Extremes and Catastrophic Events in the Mongolian Plateau from 1951 to 2012

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Lei; Yao, Zhi-Jun; Jiang, Liguang;

    2016-01-01

    The spatiotemporal changes in 21 indices of extreme temperature and precipitation for the Mongolian Plateau from 1951 to 2012 were investigated on the basis of daily temperature and precipitation data from 70 meteorological stations. Changes in catastrophic events, such as droughts, floods...... was shown for total precipitation from west to east as based on the spatial distribution of decadal trends. Drought was the most serious extreme disaster, and prolonged drought for longer than 3 yr occurred about every 7-11 yr. An increasing trend in the disaster area was apparent for flood events from 1951......, and snowstorms, were also investigated for the same period. The correlations between catastrophic events and the extreme indices were examined. The results show that the Mongolian Plateau experienced an asymmetric warming trend. Both the cold extremes and warm extremes showed greater warming at night than...

  13. Impacts of Multi-Scale Solar Activity on Climate.Part Ⅰ:Atmospheric Circulation Patterns and Climate Extremes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Hengyi WENG

    2012-01-01

    The impacts of solar activity on climate are explored in this two-part study.Based on the principles of atmospheric dynamics,Part Ⅰ propose an amplifying mechanism of solar impacts on winter climate extremes through changing the atmospheric circulation patterns.This mechanism is supported by data analysis of the sunspot number up to the predicted Solar Cycle 24,the historical surface temperature data,and atmospheric variables of NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis up to the February 2011 for the Northern Hemisphere winters.For low solar activity,the thermal contrast between the low- and high-latitudes is enhanced,so as the mid-latitude baroclinic ultra-long wave activity.The land-ocean thermal contrast is also enhanced,which amplifies the topographic waves.The enhanced mid-latitude waves in turn enhance the meridional heat transport from the low to high latitudes,making the atmospheric “heat engine” more efficient than normal. The jets shift southward and the polar vortex is weakened.The Northern Annular Mode (NAM) index tends to be negative.The mid-latitude surface exhibits large-scale convergence and updrafts,which favor extreme weather/climate events to occur.The thermally driven Siberian high is enhanced,which enhances the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM).For high solar activity,the mid-latitude circulation patterns are less wavy with less meridional transport.The NAM tends to be positive,and the Siberian high and the EAWM tend to be weaker than normal.Thus the extreme weather/climate events for high solar activity occur in different regions with different severity from those for low solar activity.The solar influence on the midto high-latitude surface temperature and circulations can stand out after renoving the influence from the El Ni(n)o-Southern Oscillation.The atmospheric amplifying mechanism indicates that the solar impacts on climate should not be simply estimated by the magnitude of the change in the solar radiation over solar cycles when it is compared with

  14. Advanced materials for multilayer mirrors for extreme ultraviolet solar astronomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogachev, S A; Chkhalo, N I; Kuzin, S V; Pariev, D E; Polkovnikov, V N; Salashchenko, N N; Shestov, S V; Zuev, S Y

    2016-03-20

    We provide an analysis of contemporary multilayer optics for extreme ultraviolet (EUV) solar astronomy in the wavelength ranges: λ=12.9-13.3  nm, λ=17-21  nm, λ=28-33  nm, and λ=58.4  nm. We found new material pairs, which will make new spaceborne experiments possible due to the high reflection efficiencies, spectral resolution, and long-term stabilities of the proposed multilayer coatings. In the spectral range λ=13  nm, Mo/Be multilayer mirrors were shown to demonstrate a better ratio of reflection efficiency and spectral resolution compared with the commonly used Mo/Si. In the spectral range λ=17-21  nm, a new multilayer structure Al/Si was proposed, which had higher spectral resolution along with comparable reflection efficiency compared with the commonly used Al/Zr multilayer structures. In the spectral range λ=30  nm, the Si/B4C/Mg/Cr multilayer structure turned out to best obey reflection efficiency and long-term stability. The B4C and Cr layers prevented mutual diffusion of the Si and Mg layers. For the spectral range λ=58  nm, a new multilayer Mo/Mg-based structure was developed; its reflection efficiency and long-term stability have been analyzed. We also investigated intrinsic stresses inherent for most of the multilayer structures and proposed possibilities for stress elimination.

  15. Coherent structures and extreme events in rotating multiphase turbulent flows

    CERN Document Server

    Biferale, Luca; Mazzitelli, Irene M; van Hinsberg, Michel A T; Lanotte, Alessandra S; Musacchio, Stefano; Perlekar, Prasad; Toschi, Federico

    2016-01-01

    By using direct numerical simulations (DNS) at unprecedented resolution we study turbulence under rotation in the presence of simultaneous direct and inverse cascades. The accumulation of energy at large scale leads to the formation of vertical coherent regions with high vorticity oriented along the rotation axis. By seeding the flow with millions of inertial particles, we quantify -for the first time- the effects of those coherent vertical structures on the preferential concentration of light and heavy particles. Furthermore, we quantitatively show that extreme fluctuations, leading to deviations from a normal-distributed statistics, result from the entangled interaction of the vertical structures with the turbulent background. Finally, we present the first-ever measurement of the relative importance between Stokes drag, Coriolis force and centripetal forces along the trajectories of inertial particles. We discover that vortical coherent structures lead to unexpected diffusion properties for heavy and light ...

  16. Coherent Structures and Extreme Events in Rotating Multiphase Turbulent Flows

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Biferale

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available By using direct numerical simulations (DNS at unprecedented resolution, we study turbulence under rotation in the presence of simultaneous direct and inverse cascades. The accumulation of energy at large scale leads to the formation of vertical coherent regions with high vorticity oriented along the rotation axis. By seeding the flow with millions of inertial particles, we quantify—for the first time—the effects of those coherent vertical structures on the preferential concentration of light and heavy particles. Furthermore, we quantitatively show that extreme fluctuations, leading to deviations from a normal-distributed statistics, result from the entangled interaction of the vertical structures with the turbulent background. Finally, we present the first-ever measurement of the relative importance between Stokes drag, Coriolis force, and centripetal force along the trajectories of inertial particles. We discover that vortical coherent structures lead to unexpected diffusion properties for heavy and light particles in the directions parallel and perpendicular to the rotation axis.

  17. Coherent Structures and Extreme Events in Rotating Multiphase Turbulent Flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biferale, L.; Bonaccorso, F.; Mazzitelli, I. M.; van Hinsberg, M. A. T.; Lanotte, A. S.; Musacchio, S.; Perlekar, P.; Toschi, F.

    2016-10-01

    By using direct numerical simulations (DNS) at unprecedented resolution, we study turbulence under rotation in the presence of simultaneous direct and inverse cascades. The accumulation of energy at large scale leads to the formation of vertical coherent regions with high vorticity oriented along the rotation axis. By seeding the flow with millions of inertial particles, we quantify—for the first time—the effects of those coherent vertical structures on the preferential concentration of light and heavy particles. Furthermore, we quantitatively show that extreme fluctuations, leading to deviations from a normal-distributed statistics, result from the entangled interaction of the vertical structures with the turbulent background. Finally, we present the first-ever measurement of the relative importance between Stokes drag, Coriolis force, and centripetal force along the trajectories of inertial particles. We discover that vortical coherent structures lead to unexpected diffusion properties for heavy and light particles in the directions parallel and perpendicular to the rotation axis.

  18. Time Evolution of Elemental Ratios in Solar Energetic Particle Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zelina, P.; Dalla, S.; Cohen, C. M. S.; Mewaldt, R. A.

    2017-01-01

    Heavy ion ratio abundances in solar energetic particle (SEP) events, e.g., Fe/O, often exhibit decreases over time. Using particle instruments on the Advanced Composition Explorer, Solar and Heliospheric Observatory and Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory spacecraft, we analyzed heavy ion data from 4 SEP events taking place between 2006 December and 2014 December. We constructed 36 different ionic pairs and studied their time evolution in each event. We quantified the temporal behavior of abundant SEP ratios by fitting the data to derive a decay time constant B. We also considered the ratio of ionic mass-to-charge for each pair, the S value given, e.g., for Fe/O by {S}{Fe/{{O}}}={(M/Q)}{Fe}/{(M/Q)}{{O}}. We found that the temporal behavior of SEP ratios is ordered by the value of S: ratios with S> 1 showed decreases over time (i.e., B 0). We plotted B as a function of S and observed a clear monotonic dependence: ratios with a large S decayed at a higher rate. A prominent discontinuity at S = 2.0 (corresponding to He/H) was found in three of the four events, suggesting anomalous behavior of protons. The X/H ratios often show an initial increase followed by a decrease, and decay at a slower rate. We discuss possible causes of the observed B versus S trends within current understanding of SEP propagation.

  19. Extreme events following bifurcation to spatiotemporal chaos in a spatially extended microcavity laser

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coulibaly, S.; Clerc, M. G.; Selmi, F.; Barbay, S.

    2017-02-01

    The occurrence of extreme events in a spatially extended microcavity laser has been recently reported [Selmi et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 116, 013901 (2016), 10.1103/PhysRevLett.116.013901] to be correlated to emergence of spatiotemporal chaos. In this dissipative system, the role of spatial coupling through diffraction is essential to observe the onset of spatiotemporal complexity. We investigate further the formation mechanism of extreme events by comparing the statistical and dynamical analyses. Experimental measurements together with numerical simulations allow us to assign the quasiperiodicity mechanism as the route to spatiotemporal chaos in this system. Moreover, by investigating the fine structure of the maximum Lyapunov exponent, of the Lyapunov spectrum, and of the Kaplan-Yorke dimension of the chaotic attractor, we are able to deduce that intermittency plays a key role in the proportion of extreme events measured. We assign the observed mechanism of generation of extreme events to quasiperiodic extended spatiotemporal intermittency.

  20. A Review of Recent Advances in Research on Extreme Heat Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horton, Radley M.; Mankin, Justin S.; Lesk, Corey; Coffel, Ethan; Raymond, Colin

    2016-01-01

    Reviewing recent literature, we report that changes in extreme heat event characteristics such as magnitude, frequency, and duration are highly sensitive to changes in mean global-scale warming. Numerous studies have detected significant changes in the observed occurrence of extreme heat events, irrespective of how such events are defined. Further, a number of these studies have attributed present-day changes in the risk of individual heat events and the documented global-scale increase in such events to anthropogenic-driven warming. Advances in process-based studies of heat events have focused on the proximate land-atmosphere interactions through soil moisture anomalies, and changes in occurrence of the underlying atmospheric circulation associated with heat events in the mid-latitudes. While evidence for a number of hypotheses remains limited, climate change nevertheless points to tail risks of possible changes in heat extremes that could exceed estimates generated from model outputs of mean temperature. We also explore risks associated with compound extreme events and nonlinear impacts associated with extreme heat.

  1. Power System Extreme Event Detection: The Vulnerability Frontier

    OpenAIRE

    Lesieutre, Bernard C.; Pinar, Ali; Roy, Sandip

    2007-01-01

    In this work we apply graph theoretic tools to provide a close bound on a frontier relating the number of line outages in a grid to the power disrupted by the outages. This frontier describes the boundary of a space relating the possible severity of a disturbance in terms of power disruption, from zero to some maximum on the boundary, to the number line outages involved in the event. We present the usefulness of this analysis with a complete analysis of a 30 bus system, and present resul...

  2. Not ready for prime time: transitional events in the extremely preterm infant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armentrout, Debra

    2014-01-01

    Successful transition from intrauterine to extrauterine life involves significant physiologic changes. The majority of these changes occur relatively quickly during those first moments following delivery; however, transition for the extremely preterm infant occurs over a longer period of time. Careful assessment and perceptive interventions on the part of neonatal care providers is essential as the extremely preterm infant adjusts to life outside the womb. This article will focus on respiratory, cardiovascular, gastrointestinal, and neurologic transitional events experienced by the extremely premature infant.

  3. Extreme ultraviolet imaging of three-dimensional magnetic reconnection in a solar eruption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, J Q; Cheng, X; Ding, M D; Guo, Y; Priest, E R; Parnell, C E; Edwards, S J; Zhang, J; Chen, P F; Fang, C

    2015-06-26

    Magnetic reconnection, a change of magnetic field connectivity, is a fundamental physical process in which magnetic energy is released explosively, and it is responsible for various eruptive phenomena in the universe. However, this process is difficult to observe directly. Here, the magnetic topology associated with a solar reconnection event is studied in three dimensions using the combined perspectives of two spacecraft. The sequence of extreme ultraviolet images clearly shows that two groups of oppositely directed and non-coplanar magnetic loops gradually approach each other, forming a separator or quasi-separator and then reconnecting. The plasma near the reconnection site is subsequently heated from ∼1 to ≥5 MK. Shortly afterwards, warm flare loops (∼3 MK) appear underneath the hot plasma. Other observational signatures of reconnection, including plasma inflows and downflows, are unambiguously revealed and quantitatively measured. These observations provide direct evidence of magnetic reconnection in a three-dimensional configuration and reveal its origin.

  4. Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging of Three-dimensional Magnetic Reconnection in a Solar Eruption

    CERN Document Server

    Sun, J Q; Ding, M D; Guo, Y; Priest, E R; Parnell, C E; Edwards, S J; Zhang, J; Chen, P F; Fang, C

    2015-01-01

    Magnetic reconnection, a change of magnetic field connectivity, is a fundamental physical process in which magnetic energy is released explosively. It is responsible for various eruptive phenomena in the universe. However, this process is difficult to observe directly. Here, the magnetic topology associated with a solar reconnection event is studied in three dimensions (3D) using the combined perspectives of two spacecraft. The sequence of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) images clearly shows that two groups of oppositely directed and non-coplanar magnetic loops gradually approach each other, forming a separator or quasi-separator and then reconnecting. The plasma near the reconnection site is subsequently heated from $\\sim$1 to $\\ge$5 MK. Shortly afterwards, warm flare loops ($\\sim$3 MK) appear underneath the hot plasma. Other observational signatures of reconnection, including plasma inflows and downflows, are unambiguously revealed and quantitatively measured. These observations provide direct evidence of magneti...

  5. The differential effects of increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme events on coral populations

    OpenAIRE

    Fabina, NS; Baskett, ML; K. Gross

    2015-01-01

    © 2015 by the Ecological Society of America. Extreme events, which have profound ecological consequences, are changing in both frequency and magnitude with climate change. Because extreme temperatures induce coral bleaching, we can explore the relative impacts of changes in frequency and magnitude of high temperature events on coral reefs. Here, we combined climate projections and a dynamic population model to determine how changing bleaching regimes influence coral persistence. We additional...

  6. Soil biotic legacy effects of extreme weather events influence plant invasiveness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meisner, A.; De Deyn, G.B.; De Boer, W.; Van der Putten, W.H.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is expected to increase future abiotic stresses on ecosystems through extreme weather events leading to more extreme drought and rainfall incidences [Jentsch A, et al. (2007) Front Ecol Environ 5(7):365–374]. These fluctuations in precipitation may affect soil biota, soil processes [E

  7. Extreme events statistics in a two-layer quasi-geostrophic atmospheric model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galfi, Vera Melinda; Bodai, Tamas; Lucarini, Valerio

    2016-04-01

    Extreme events statistics provides a theoretical framework to analyze and predict extreme events based on the convergence of the distribution of the extremes to some limiting distribution. In this work we analyze the convergence of the distribution of extreme events to the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution and to the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD), using a two-layer quasi-geostrophic atmospheric model, and compare our results with theoretical findings from the field of extreme value theory for dynamical systems. We study the behavior of the GEV shape parameter by increasing the block size and of the GPD shape parameter by increasing the threshold, and compare the inferred parameters with a theoretical shape parameter that depends only on the geometrical properties of the attractor. The main objective is to find out whether this theoretical shape parameter can be used to evaluate extreme event analysis based on model output. For this, we perform very long simulations. We run our system with two different levels of forcing determined by two different meridional temperature gradients, one inducing a medium level of chaos and the other one a high level of chaos. We analyze in both cases extremes of energy variables.

  8. Coronal mass ejections and other extreme characteristics of the 2003 October-November solar eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopalswamy, N.; Yashiro, S.; Liu, Y.; Michalek, G.; Vourlidas, A.; Kaiser, M. L.; Howard, R. A.

    2005-09-01

    Fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs), X-class flares, solar energetic particle (SEP) events, and interplanetary shocks were abundantly observed during the episode of intense solar activity in late October and early November 2003. Most of the 80 CMEs originated from three active regions (NOAA ARs 484, 486, and 488). We compare the statistical properties of these CMEs with those of the general population of CMEs observed during cycle 23. We find that (1) the 2003 October-November CMEs were fast and wide on the average and hence were very energetic, (2) nearly 20 percent of the ultrafast CMEs (speed ≥2000 km s-1) of cycle 23 occurred during the October-November interval, including the fastest CME of the study period (˜2700 km s-1 on 4 November 2003 at 1954 UT), (3) the rate of full-halo CMEs was nearly four times the average rate during cycle 23, (4) at least sixteen shocks were observed near the Sun, while eight of them were intercepted by spacecraft along the Sun-Earth line, (5) the CMEs were highly geoeffective: the resulting geomagnetic storms were among the most intense of cycle 23, (6) the CMEs were associated with very large SEP events, including the largest event of cycle 23. These extreme properties were commensurate with the size and energy of the associated active regions. This study suggests that the speed of CMEs may not be much higher than ˜3000 km s-1, consistent with the free energy available in active regions. An important practical implication of such a speed limit is that the Sun-Earth travel times of CME-driven shocks may not be less than ˜0.5 day. Two of the shocks arrived at Earth in documented cases of such events since 1859.

  9. Triggering extreme events at the nanoscale in photonic seas

    KAUST Repository

    Liu, Changxu

    2015-03-09

    Hurricanes, tsunamis, rogue waves and tornadoes are rare natural phenomena that embed an exceptionally large amount of energy, which appears and quickly disappears in a probabilistic fashion. This makes them difficult to predict and hard to generate on demand. Here we demonstrate that we can trigger the onset of rare events akin to rogue waves controllably, and systematically use their generation to break the diffraction limit of light propagation. We illustrate this phenomenon in the case of a random field, where energy oscillates among incoherent degrees of freedom. Despite the low energy carried by each wave, we illustrate how to control a mechanism of spontaneous synchronization, which constructively builds up the spectral energy available in the whole bandwidth of the field into giant structures, whose statistics is predictable. The larger the frequency bandwidth of the random field, the larger the amplitude of rare events that are built up by this mechanism. Our system is composed of an integrated optical resonator, realized on a photonic crystal chip. Through near-field imaging experiments, we record confined rogue waves characterized by a spatial localization of 206 nm and with an ultrashort duration of 163 fs at a wavelength of 1.55 μm. Such localized energy patterns are formed in a deterministic dielectric structure that does not require nonlinear properties.

  10. Power outages, extreme events and health: a systematic review of the literature from 2011-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klinger, Chaamala; Landeg, Owen; Murray, Virginia

    2014-01-02

    Background Extreme events (e.g. flooding) threaten critical infrastructure including power supplies. Many interlinked systems in the modern world depend on a reliable power supply to function effectively. The health sector is no exception, but the impact of power outages on health is poorly understood. Greater understanding is essential so that adverse health impacts can be prevented and/or mitigated. Methods We searched Medline, CINAHL and Scopus for papers about the health impacts of power outages during extreme events published in 2011-2012. A thematic analysis was undertaken on the extracted information. The Public Health England Extreme Events Bulletins between 01/01/2013 - 31/03/2013 were used to identify extreme events that led to power outages during this three-month period. Results We identified 20 relevant articles. Power outages were found to impact health at many levels within diverse settings. Recurrent themes included the difficulties of accessing healthcare, maintaining frontline services and the challenges of community healthcare. We identified 52 power outages in 19 countries that were the direct consequence of extreme events during the first three months of 2013. Conclusions To our knowledge, this is the first review of the health impacts of power outages. We found the current evidence and knowledge base to be poor. With scientific consensus predicting an increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events due to climate change, the gaps in knowledge need to be addressed in order to mitigate the impact of power outages on global health.

  11. Temporal energy partitions of Florida extreme sea level events as a function of Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Park

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available An energy-conservative metric based on the discrete wavelet transform is applied to assess the relative energy distribution of extreme sea level events across different temporal scales. The metric is applied to coastal events at Key West and Pensacola Florida as a function of two Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO regimes. Under AMO warm conditions there is a small but significant redistribution of event energy from nearly static into more dynamic (shorter duration timescales at Key West, while at Pensacola the AMO-dependent changes in temporal event behaviour are less pronounced. Extreme events with increased temporal dynamics might be consistent with an increase in total energy of event forcings which may be a reflection of more energetic storm events during AMO warm phases. As dynamical models mature to the point of providing regional climate index predictability, coastal planners may be able to consider such temporal change metrics in planning scenarios.

  12. Temporal energy partitions of Florida extreme sea level events as a function of Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Park

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available An energy-conservative metric based on the discrete wavelet transform is applied to assess the relative energy distribution of non-stationary extreme sea level events across different temporal scales. The metric is applied to coastal events at Key West and Pensacola Florida as a function of two Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO regimes. Under AMO warm conditions there is a small but significant redistribution of event energy from nearly static into more dynamic timescales at Key West, while at Pensacola the AMO-dependent changes in temporal event behaviour are less pronounced. Extreme events with increased temporal dynamics are consistent with an increase in total energy of event forcings which may be a reflection of more energetic storm events during AMO warm phases. As dynamical models mature to the point of providing regional climate index predictability, coastal planners may be able to consider such temporal change metrics in planning scenarios.

  13. High-Energy Solar Particle Events in Cycle 24

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopalswamy, N.; Makela, P.; Yashiro, S.; Xie, H.; Akiyama, S.; Thakur, N.

    2015-01-01

    The Sun is already in the declining phase of cycle 24, but the paucity of high-energy solar energetic particle (SEP) events continues with only two ground level enhancement (GLE) events as of March 31, 2015. In an attempt to understand this, we considered all the large SEP events of cycle 24 that occurred until the end of 2014. We compared the properties of the associated CMEs with those in cycle 23. We found that the CME speeds in the sky plane were similar, but almost all those cycle-24 CMEs were halos. A significant fraction of (16%) of the frontside SEP events were associated with eruptive prominence events. CMEs associated with filament eruption events accelerate slowly and attain peak speeds beyond the typical GLE release heights. When we considered only western hemispheric events that had good connectivity to the CME nose, there were only 8 events that could be considered as GLE candidates. One turned out to be the first GLE event of cycle 24 (2012 May 17). In two events, the CMEs were very fast (>2000 km/s) but they were launched into a tenuous medium (high Alfven speed). In the remaining five events, the speeds were well below the typical GLE CME speed (2000 km/s). Furthermore, the CMEs attained their peak speeds beyond the typical heights where GLE particles are released. We conclude that several factors contribute to the low rate of high-energy SEP events in cycle 24: (i) reduced efficiency of shock acceleration (weak heliospheric magnetic field), (ii) poor latitudinal and longitudinal connectivity), and (iii) variation in local ambient conditions (e.g., high Alfven speed).

  14. Solar Neutron Events of October-November 2003

    CERN Document Server

    Watanabe, K; Stoker, P H; Kudela, K; Lopate, C; Valdés-Galicia, J F; Hurtado, A; Musalem, O; Ogasawara, R; Mizumoto, Y; Nakagiri, M; Miyashita, A; Matsubara, Y; Sako, T; Muraki, Y; Sakai, T; Shibata, S

    2006-01-01

    During the period when the Sun was intensely active on October-November 2003, two remarkable solar neutron events were observed by the ground-based neutron monitors. On October 28, 2003, in association with an X17.2 large flare, solar neutrons were detected with high statistical significance (6.4 sigma) by the neutron monitor at Tsumeb, Namibia. On November 4, 2003, in association with an X28 class flare, relativistic solar neutrons were observed by the neutron monitors at Haleakala in Hawaii and Mexico City, and by the solar neutron telescope at Mauna Kea in Hawaii simultaneously. Clear excesses were observed at the same time by these detectors, with the significance calculated as 7.5 sigma for Haleakala, and 5.2 sigma for Mexico City. The detector onboard the INTEGRAL satellite observed a high flux of hard X-rays and gamma-rays at the same time in these events. By using the time profiles of the gamma-ray lines, we can explain the time profile of the neutron monitor. It appears that neutrons were produced at...

  15. Modelling of aircrew radiation exposure from solar particle events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Al Anid, H.; Lewis, B.J.; Bennett, L.G.I. [Royal Military College of Canada, Dept. of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, Kingston, Ontario (Canada)

    2008-07-01

    A transport code analysis using the Monte Carlo code, MCNPX, has been used to propagate an extrapolated particle spectrum based on GOES satellite measurements through the atmosphere to estimate aircrew radiation exposure due to solar particle events. Neutron monitor count rate data from ground stations around the world were used to benchmark the model calculations during several Ground Level Events (GLEs). In addition, a comparison was made between the model predictions and actual flight measurements made by some European investigators with various types of instrument used to measure the mixed radiation field during GLE 60 and 65. A computer-code has been further developed to implement the model for routine analysis. (author)

  16. Super-extreme event's influence on a Weierstrass-Mandelbrot Continuous-Time Random Walk

    CERN Document Server

    Gubiec, Tomasz; Kutner, Ryszard; Sornette, Didier

    2010-01-01

    Two utmost cases of super-extreme event's influence on the velocity autocorrelation function (VAF) were considered. The VAF itself was derived within the hierarchical Weierstrass-Mandelbrot Continuous-Time Random Walk (WM-CTRW) formalism, which is able to cover a broad spectrum of continuous-time random walks. Firstly, we studied a super-extreme event in a form of a sustained drift, whose duration time is much longer than that of any other event. Secondly, we considered a super-extreme event in the form of a shock with the size and velocity much larger than those corresponding to any other event. We found that the appearance of these super-extreme events substantially changes the results determined by extreme events (the so called "black swans") that are endogenous to the WM-CTRW process. For example, changes of the VAF in the latter case are in the form of some instability and distinctly differ from those caused in the former case. In each case these changes are quite different compared to the situation with...

  17. A comparative analysis on two solar proton events

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LE GuiMing; HAN YanBen; ZHANG YiJun

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a comparative analysis on the two Solar Proton Events (SPE), which occurred on 14 July 2000 (Bastille Day) and 28 October 2003 (28OCT03) respectively. It is found that although the peak flux of the latter seemed to be greater than that of the former based on geostationary observations, the maximum intensities of the energetic protons (>10 MeV and 30 MeV) during the Bastille Day event were all higher than those of the 28OCT03 event according to the interplanetary observations. Further analysis indicated that the quantity of the seed particles, which could be accelerated to the energies exceeding 10 and 30 MeV by the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)-driven shock on 14 July 2000, was far larger than that of the 28OCT03 event. In the Bastille Day case, when the CME approached to the height around 14 R⊙, the CME-driven shock would reach its maximum capacity in accelerating the solar energetic protons (>100 MeV). In contrast, on 28 October 2003, when CME approached to the height about 58R⊙, the CME-driven shock reached its highest potential in accelerating the solar energetic protons of the same category. At this moment, the peak flux (>100 MeV) was about 155 pfu, which was much lower than 355 pfu measured on 14 July 2000. This demonstrated that in the Bastille Day event, the quantity of the seed particles, which could be accelerated to the energy beyond 100 MeV, was significantly larger than its counterpart in the 28OCT03 case. Therefore, the peak flux of an SPE event depends not only on the interplanetary intensity of the solar energetic particles, but also on the velocity of the associated CME-driven shock, and the quantity of the seed particles as well as on the interplanetary magnetic environment. This paper also reveals that the magnetic sheath associated with ICME on 28 October 2003 captured a large number of solar energetic protons, including those having energy greater than 100 MeV.

  18. Climate Change Extreme Events: Meeting the Information Needs of Water Resource Managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quay, R.; Garfin, G. M.; Dominguez, F.; Hirschboeck, K. K.; Woodhouse, C. A.; Guido, Z.; White, D. D.

    2013-12-01

    Information about climate has long been used by water managers to develop short term and long term plans and strategies for regional and local water resources. Inherent within longer term forecasts is an element of uncertainty, which is particularly evident in Global Climate model results for precipitation. For example in the southwest estimates in the flow of the Colorado River based on GCM results indicate changes from 120% or current flow to 60%. Many water resource managers are now using global climate model down scaled estimates results as indications of potential climate change as part of that planning. They are addressing the uncertainty within these estimates by using an anticipatory planning approach looking at a range of possible futures. One aspect of climate that is important for such planning are estimates of future extreme storm (short term) and drought (long term) events. However, the climate science of future possible changes in extreme events is less mature than general climate change science. At a recent workshop among climate scientists and water managers in the southwest, it was concluded the science of climate change extreme events is at least a decade away from being robust enough to be useful for water managers in their water resource management activities. However, it was proposed that there are existing estimates and records of past flooding and drought events that could be combined with general climate change science to create possible future events. These derived events could be of sufficient detail to be used by water resource managers until such time that the science of extreme events is able to provide more detailed estimates. Based on the results of this workshop and other work being done by the Decision Center for a Desert City at Arizona State University and the Climate Assessment for the Southwest center at University of Arizona., this article will 1) review what are the extreme event data needs of Water Resource Managers in the

  19. Expected impacts of climate change on extreme climate events; Impacts du changement climatique sur les evenements climatiques extremes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Planton, S.; Deque, M.; Chauvin, F. [Meteo-France, Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques/groupe d' Etude de l' Atmosphere Meteorologique (CNRM/GAME), 31 - Toulouse (France); Terray, L. [Centre Europeen de Recherches Avancees en Calcul Scientifique, 31 - Toulouse (France)

    2008-09-15

    An overview of the expected change of climate extremes during this century due to greenhouse gases and aerosol anthropogenic emissions is presented. The most commonly used methodologies rely on the dynamical or statistical down-scaling of climate projections, performed with coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Either of dynamical or of statistical type, down-scaling methods present strengths and weaknesses, but neither their validation on present climate conditions, nor their potential ability to project the impact of climate change on extreme event statistics allows one to give a specific advantage to one of the two types. The results synthesized in the last IPCC report and more recent studies underline a convergence for a very likely increase in heat wave episodes over land surfaces, linked to the mean warming and the increase in temperature variability. In addition, the number of days of frost should decrease and the growing season length should increase. The projected increase in heavy precipitation events appears also as very likely over most areas and also seems linked to a change in the shape of the precipitation intensity distribution. The global trends for drought duration are less consistent between models and down-scaling methodologies, due to their regional variability. The change of wind-related extremes is also regionally dependent, and associated to a poleward displacement of the mid-latitude storm tracks. The specific study of extreme events over France reveals the high sensitivity of some statistics of climate extremes at the decadal time scale as a consequence of regional climate internal variability. (authors)

  20. "Extreme events" in STT-MRAM speed retention and reliability (Conference Presentation)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiaobin; Zhang, Jing; Wang, Zihui; Hao, Xiaojie; Zhou, Yuchen; Gan, Huadong; Jun, Dongha; Satoh, Kimihiro; Yen, Bing K.; Huai, Yiming

    2016-10-01

    Fast operation speed, high retention and high reliability are the most attractive features of the spin transfer torque magnetic random access memory (STT-MRAM) based upon perpendicular magnetic tunneling junction (pMTJ). For state-of-the-art pMTJ STT-MRAM, its device performance is fundamentally determined by material "extreme events" physics. For example, nanosecond write bit error rate is determined by extremely high probability (>(1-10^(-7))) stochastic magnetization switching events, retention is determined by magnetization configurations with extremely low switching probability, reliability is determined by extremely low probability (MRAM write, read, retention and reliability. Specifically, we will present our model that accurately calculates extremely low write BER for various magnetization configurations. We will review our study of thermal magnetization switching through the dynamic optimal reversal path approach, capable of characterizing extreme thermal magnetization switching events under both low frequency (e.g. static retention) and high frequency (e.g. fast read) excitations. We will also discuss a new MTJ breakdown reliability model that quantifies extreme events uniformly at different failure mode regions.

  1. Economic Evaluations of the Health Impacts of Weather-Related Extreme Events: A Scoping Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmitt, Laetitia H M; Graham, Hilary M; White, Piran C L

    2016-11-08

    The frequency and severity of extreme events is expected to increase under climate change. There is a need to understand the economic consequences of human exposure to these extreme events, to underpin decisions on risk reduction. We undertook a scoping review of economic evaluations of the adverse health effects from exposure to weather-related extreme events. We searched PubMed, Embase and Web of Science databases with no restrictions to the type of evaluations. Twenty studies were included, most of which were recently published. Most studies have been undertaken in the U.S. (nine studies) or Asia (seven studies), whereas we found no studies in Africa, Central and Latin America nor the Middle East. Extreme temperatures accounted for more than a third of the pool of studies (seven studies), closely followed by flooding (six studies). No economic study was found on drought. Whilst studies were heterogeneous in terms of objectives and methodology, they clearly indicate that extreme events will become a pressing public health issue with strong welfare and distributional implications. The current body of evidence, however, provides little information to support decisions on the allocation of scarce resources between risk reduction options. In particular, the review highlights a significant lack of research attention to the potential cost-effectiveness of interventions that exploit the capacity of natural ecosystems to reduce our exposure to, or ameliorate the consequences of, extreme events.

  2. Economic Evaluations of the Health Impacts of Weather-Related Extreme Events: A Scoping Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laetitia H. M. Schmitt

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The frequency and severity of extreme events is expected to increase under climate change. There is a need to understand the economic consequences of human exposure to these extreme events, to underpin decisions on risk reduction. We undertook a scoping review of economic evaluations of the adverse health effects from exposure to weather-related extreme events. We searched PubMed, Embase and Web of Science databases with no restrictions to the type of evaluations. Twenty studies were included, most of which were recently published. Most studies have been undertaken in the U.S. (nine studies or Asia (seven studies, whereas we found no studies in Africa, Central and Latin America nor the Middle East. Extreme temperatures accounted for more than a third of the pool of studies (seven studies, closely followed by flooding (six studies. No economic study was found on drought. Whilst studies were heterogeneous in terms of objectives and methodology, they clearly indicate that extreme events will become a pressing public health issue with strong welfare and distributional implications. The current body of evidence, however, provides little information to support decisions on the allocation of scarce resources between risk reduction options. In particular, the review highlights a significant lack of research attention to the potential cost-effectiveness of interventions that exploit the capacity of natural ecosystems to reduce our exposure to, or ameliorate the consequences of, extreme events.

  3. Impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk in India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    P Guhathakurta; O P Sreejith; P A Menon

    2011-06-01

    The occurrence of exceptionally heavy rainfall events and associated flash floods in many areas during recent years motivate us to study long-term changes in extreme rainfall over India. The analysis of the frequency of rainy days, rain days and heavy rainfall days as well as one-day extreme rainfall and return period has been carried out in this study to observe the impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk in India. The frequency of heavy rainfall events are decreasing in major parts of central and north India while they are increasing in peninsular, east and north east India. The study tries to bring out some of the interesting findings which are very useful for hydrological planning and disaster managements. Extreme rainfall and flood risk are increasing significantly in the country except some parts of central India.

  4. Changes in Climate Extremes and Catastrophic Events in the Mongolian Plateau from 1951 to 2012

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Lei; Yao, Zhi-Jun; Jiang, Liguang;

    2016-01-01

    The spatiotemporal changes in 21 indices of extreme temperature and precipitation for the Mongolian Plateau from 1951 to 2012 were investigated on the basis of daily temperature and precipitation data from 70 meteorological stations. Changes in catastrophic events, such as droughts, floods...... in the daytime. The spatial changes in significant trends showed a good homogeneity and consistency in Inner Mongolia. Changes in the precipitation extremes were not as obvious as those in the temperature extremes. The spatial distributions in changes of precipitation extremes were complex. Adecreasing trend...

  5. SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENT ONSETS: FAR BACKSIDE SOLAR SOURCES AND THE EAST–WEST HEMISPHERIC ASYMMETRY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kahler, S. W., E-mail: stephen.kahler@kirtland.af.mil [Air Force Research Laboratory, Space Vehicles Directorate, 3550 Aberdeen Avenue, Kirtland AFB, NM 87117 (United States)

    2016-03-10

    Prompt onsets and short rise times to peak intensities Ip have been noted in a few solar energetic (E > 10 MeV) particle (SEP) events from far behind (≥25°) the west limb. We discuss 15 archival and recent examples of these prompt events, giving their source longitudes, onset and rise times, and associated coronal mass ejection (CME) speeds. Their timescales and CME speeds are not exceptional in comparison with a larger set of SEP events from behind the west limb. A further statistical comparison of observed timescales of SEP events from behind the west limb with events similarly poorly magnetically connected to the eastern hemisphere (EH) shows the longer timescales of the latter group. We interpret this result in terms of a difference between SEP production at parallel shocks on the eastern flanks of western backside events and at perpendicular shocks on the western flanks of EH events.

  6. Roadmap on optical rogue waves and extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akhmediev, Nail; Kibler, Bertrand; Baronio, Fabio; Belić, Milivoj; Zhong, Wei-Ping; Zhang, Yiqi; Chang, Wonkeun; Soto-Crespo, Jose M.; Vouzas, Peter; Grelu, Philippe; Lecaplain, Caroline; Hammani, K.; Rica, S.; Picozzi, A.; Tlidi, Mustapha; Panajotov, Krassimir; Mussot, Arnaud; Bendahmane, Abdelkrim; Szriftgiser, Pascal; Genty, Goery; Dudley, John; Kudlinski, Alexandre; Demircan, Ayhan; Morgner, Uwe; Amiraranashvili, Shalva; Bree, Carsten; Steinmeyer, Günter; Masoller, C.; Broderick, Neil G. R.; Runge, Antoine F. J.; Erkintalo, Miro; Residori, S.; Bortolozzo, U.; Arecchi, F. T.; Wabnitz, Stefan; Tiofack, C. G.; Coulibaly, S.; Taki, M.

    2016-06-01

    The pioneering paper ‘Optical rogue waves’ by Solli et al (2007 Nature 450 1054) started the new subfield in optics. This work launched a great deal of activity on this novel subject. As a result, the initial concept has expanded and has been enriched by new ideas. Various approaches have been suggested since then. A fresh look at the older results and new discoveries has been undertaken, stimulated by the concept of ‘optical rogue waves’. Presently, there may not by a unique view on how this new scientific term should be used and developed. There is nothing surprising when the opinion of the experts diverge in any new field of research. After all, rogue waves may appear for a multiplicity of reasons and not necessarily only in optical fibers and not only in the process of supercontinuum generation. We know by now that rogue waves may be generated by lasers, appear in wide aperture cavities, in plasmas and in a variety of other optical systems. Theorists, in turn, have suggested many other situations when rogue waves may be observed. The strict definition of a rogue wave is still an open question. For example, it has been suggested that it is defined as ‘an optical pulse whose amplitude or intensity is much higher than that of the surrounding pulses’. This definition (as suggested by a peer reviewer) is clear at the intuitive level and can be easily extended to the case of spatial beams although additional clarifications are still needed. An extended definition has been presented earlier by N Akhmediev and E Pelinovsky (2010 Eur. Phys. J. Spec. Top. 185 1-4). Discussions along these lines are always useful and all new approaches stimulate research and encourage discoveries of new phenomena. Despite the potentially existing disagreements, the scientific terms ‘optical rogue waves’ and ‘extreme events’ do exist. Therefore coordination of our efforts in either unifying the concept or in introducing alternative definitions must be continued. From

  7. Mathematical modelling of unglazed solar collectors under extreme operating conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bunea, M.; Perers, Bengt; Eicher, S.

    2015-01-01

    average temperature levels at the evaporator. Simulation of these systems requires a collector model that can take into account operation at very low temperatures (below freezing) and under various weather conditions, particularly operation without solar irradiation.A solar collector mathematical model......Combined heat pumps and solar collectors got a renewed interest on the heating system market worldwide. Connected to the heat pump evaporator, unglazed solar collectors can considerably increase their efficiency, but they also raise the coefficient of performance of the heat pump with higher...... was found due to the condensation phenomenon and up to 40% due to frost under no solar irradiation. This work also points out the influence of the operating conditions on the collector's characteristics.Based on experiments carried out at a test facility, every heat flux on the absorber was separately...

  8. Continuous and discrete extreme climatic events affecting the dynamics of a high-arctic reindeer population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Kung-Sik; Mysterud, Atle; Øritsland, Nils Are; Severinsen, Torbjørn; Stenseth, Nils Chr

    2005-10-01

    Climate at northern latitudes are currently changing both with regard to the mean and the temporal variability at any given site, increasing the frequency of extreme events such as cold and warm spells. Here we use a conceptually new modelling approach with two different dynamic terms of the climatic effects on a Svalbard reindeer population (the Brøggerhalvøya population) which underwent an extreme icing event ("locked pastures") with 80% reduction in population size during one winter (1993/94). One term captures the continuous and linear effect depending upon the Arctic Oscillation and another the discrete (rare) "event" process. The introduction of an "event" parameter describing the discrete extreme winter resulted in a more parsimonious model. Such an approach may be useful in strongly age-structured ungulate populations, with young and very old individuals being particularly prone to mortality factors during adverse conditions (resulting in a population structure that differs before and after extreme climatic events). A simulation study demonstrates that our approach is able to properly detect the ecological effects of such extreme climate events.

  9. Comparison of solar radio and extreme ultraviolet synoptic limb charts during the present solar maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira e Silva, A. J.; Selhorst, C. L.; Simões, P. J. A.; Giménez de Castro, C. G.

    2016-08-01

    Aims: The present solar cycle is particular in many aspects: it had a delayed rising phase, it is the weakest of the last 100 yrs, and it presents two peaks separated by more than one year. To understand the impact of these characteristics on the solar chromosphere and coronal dynamics, images from a wide wavelength range are needed. In this work we use the 17 GHz radio continuum, which is formed in the upper chromosphere and the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lines 304 and 171 Å, that come from the transition region (He ii, T ~ 6-8 × 104 K) and the corona (Fe IX, X, T ~ 106 K), respectively.We extend upon a previous similar analysis, and compare the mean equatorial and polar brightening behavior at radio and EUV wavelengths during the maximum of the present solar cycle, covering the period between 2010 and 2015. Methods: We analyze daily images at 304 and 171 Å obtained by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). The 17 GHz maps were obtained by the Nobeyama Radioheliograph (NoRH). To construct synoptic limb charts, we calculated the mean emission of delimited limb areas with 100'' wide and angular separation of 5°. Results: At the equatorial region, the results show a hemispheric asymmetry of the solar activity. The northern hemisphere dominance is coincident with the first sunspot number peak, whereas the second peak occurs concurrently with the increase in the activity at the south. The polar emission reflects the presence of coronal holes at both EUV wavelengths, moreover, the 17 GHz polar brightenings can be associated with the coronal holes. Until 2013, both EUV coronal holes and radio polar brightenings were more predominant at the south pole.Since then they have not been apparent in the north, but thus appear in the beginning of 2015 in the south as observed in the synoptic charts. Conclusions: This work strengthens the association between coronal holes and the 17 GHz polar brightenings as it is evident in the

  10. Minimum extreme temperature in the gulf of mexico: is there a connection with solar activity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maravilla, D.; Mendoza, B.; Jauregui, E.

    Minimum extreme temperature ( MET) series from several meteorological stations of the Gulf of Mexico are spectrally analyzed using the Maximum Entrophy Method. We obtained periodicities similar to those found in the sunspot number, the magnetic solar cycle, comic ray fluxes and geomagnetic activity which are modulated by solar activity. We suggested that the solar signal is perhaps present in the MET record of this region of Mexico.

  11. Solar flares, coronal mass ejections and solar energetic particle event characteristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Papaioannou Athanasios

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A new catalogue of 314 solar energetic particle (SEP events extending over a large time span from 1984 to 2013 has been compiled. The properties as well as the associations of these SEP events with their parent solar sources have been thoroughly examined. The properties of the events include the proton peak integral flux and the fluence for energies above 10, 30, 60 and 100 MeV. The associated solar events were parametrized by solar flare (SF and coronal mass ejection (CME characteristics, as well as related radio emissions. In particular, for SFs: the soft X-ray (SXR peak flux, the SXR fluence, the heliographic location, the rise time and the duration were exploited; for CMEs the plane-of-sky velocity as well as the angular width were utilized. For radio emissions, type III, II and IV radio bursts were identified. Furthermore, we utilized element abundances of Fe and O. We found evidence that most of the SEP events in our catalogue do not conform to a simple two-class paradigm, with the 73% of them exhibiting both type III and type II radio bursts, and that a continuum of event properties is present. Although, the so-called hybrid or mixed events are found to be present in our catalogue, it was not possible to attribute each SEP event to a mixed/hybrid sub-category. Moreover, it appears that the start of the type III burst most often precedes the maximum of the SF and thus falls within the impulsive phase of the associated SF. At the same time, type III bursts take place within ≈5.22 min, on average, in advance from the time of maximum of the derivative of the SXR flux (Neupert effect. We further performed a statistical analysis and a mapping of the logarithm of the proton peak flux at E > 10 MeV, on different pairs of the parent solar source characteristics. This revealed correlations in 3-D space and demonstrated that the gradual SEP events that stem from the central part of the visible solar disk constitute a significant radiation

  12. Solar flares, coronal mass ejections and solar energetic particle event characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papaioannou, Athanasios; Sandberg, Ingmar; Anastasiadis, Anastasios; Kouloumvakos, Athanasios; Georgoulis, Manolis K.; Tziotziou, Kostas; Tsiropoula, Georgia; Jiggens, Piers; Hilgers, Alain

    2016-12-01

    A new catalogue of 314 solar energetic particle (SEP) events extending over a large time span from 1984 to 2013 has been compiled. The properties as well as the associations of these SEP events with their parent solar sources have been thoroughly examined. The properties of the events include the proton peak integral flux and the fluence for energies above 10, 30, 60 and 100 MeV. The associated solar events were parametrized by solar flare (SF) and coronal mass ejection (CME) characteristics, as well as related radio emissions. In particular, for SFs: the soft X-ray (SXR) peak flux, the SXR fluence, the heliographic location, the rise time and the duration were exploited; for CMEs the plane-of-sky velocity as well as the angular width were utilized. For radio emissions, type III, II and IV radio bursts were identified. Furthermore, we utilized element abundances of Fe and O. We found evidence that most of the SEP events in our catalogue do not conform to a simple two-class paradigm, with the 73% of them exhibiting both type III and type II radio bursts, and that a continuum of event properties is present. Although, the so-called hybrid or mixed events are found to be present in our catalogue, it was not possible to attribute each SEP event to a mixed/hybrid sub-category. Moreover, it appears that the start of the type III burst most often precedes the maximum of the SF and thus falls within the impulsive phase of the associated SF. At the same time, type III bursts take place within ≈5.22 min, on average, in advance from the time of maximum of the derivative of the SXR flux (Neupert effect). We further performed a statistical analysis and a mapping of the logarithm of the proton peak flux at E > 10 MeV, on different pairs of the parent solar source characteristics. This revealed correlations in 3-D space and demonstrated that the gradual SEP events that stem from the central part of the visible solar disk constitute a significant radiation risk. The velocity of

  13. The Heliophysics Event Knowledgebase for the Solar Dynamics Observatory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurlburt, Neal E.; Cheung, M.; Schrijver, K.; HEK development Team

    2009-05-01

    The Solar Dynamics Observatory will generated over 2 petabytes of imagery in its 5 year mission. In order to improve scientific productivity and to reduce system requirements , we have developed a system for data markup to identify "interesting” datasets and direct scientists to them through an event-based querying system. The SDO Heliophysics Event Knowledgebase (HEK) will enable caching of commonly accessed datasets within the Joint Science Operations Center (JSOC) and reduces the (human) time spent searching for and downloading relevant data. We present an overview of our HEK including the ingestion of images, automated and manual tools for identifying and annotation features within the images, and interfaces and web tools for querying and accessing events and their associated data.

  14. Extreme ultraviolet solar irradiance during the rising phase of solar cycle 24 observed by PROBA2/LYRA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zender Joe

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The Large-Yield Radiometer (LYRA is a radiometer that has monitored the solar irradiance at high cadence and in four pass bands since January 2010. Both the instrument and its spacecraft, PROBA2 (Project for OnBoard Autonomy, have several innovative features for space instrumentation, which makes the data reduction necessary to retrieve the long-term variations of solar irradiance more complex than for a fully optimized solar physics mission. In this paper, we describe how we compute the long-term time series of the two extreme ultraviolet irradiance channels of LYRA and compare the results with those of SDO/EVE. We find that the solar EUV irradiance has increased by a factor of 2 since the last solar minimum (between solar cycles 23 and 24, which agrees reasonably well with the EVE observations.

  15. Analyses of Observed and Anticipated Changes in Extreme Climate Events in the Northwest Himalaya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dharmaveer Singh

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In this study, past (1970-2005 as well as future long term (2011-2099 trends in various extreme events of temperature and precipitation have been investigated over selected hydro-meteorological stations in the Sutlej river basin. The ensembles of two Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 models: third generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model and Hadley Centre Coupled Model have been used for simulation of future daily time series of temperature (maximum and minimum and precipitation under A2 emission scenario. Large scale atmospheric variables of both models and National Centre for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data sets have been downscaled using statistical downscaling technique at individual stations. A total number of 25 extreme indices of temperature (14 and precipitation (11 as specified by the Expert Team of the World Meteorological Organization and Climate Variability and Predictability are derived for the past and future periods. Trends in extreme indices are detected over time using the modified Mann-Kendall test method. The stations which have shown either decrease or no change in hot extreme events (i.e., maximum TMax, warm days, warm nights, maximum TMin, tropical nights, summer days and warm spell duration indicators for 1970–2005 and increase in cold extreme events (cool days, cool nights, frost days and cold spell duration indicators are predicted to increase and decrease respectively in the future. In addition, an increase in frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events is also predicted.

  16. Combined effects of extreme climatic events and elevation on nutritional quality and herbivory of Alpine plants.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annette Leingärtner

    Full Text Available Climatic extreme events can cause the shift or disruption of plant-insect interactions due to altered plant quality, e.g. leaf carbon to nitrogen ratios, and phenology. However, the response of plant-herbivore interactions to extreme events and climatic gradients has been rarely studied, although climatic extremes will increase in frequency and intensity in the future and insect herbivores represent a highly diverse and functionally important group. We set up a replicated climate change experiment along elevational gradients in the German Alps to study the responses of three plant guilds and their herbivory by insects to extreme events (extreme drought, advanced and delayed snowmelt versus control plots under different climatic conditions on 15 grassland sites. Our results indicate that elevational shifts in CN (carbon to nitrogen ratios and herbivory depend on plant guild and season. CN ratios increased with altitude for grasses, but decreased for legumes and other forbs. In contrast to our hypotheses, extreme climatic events did not significantly affect CN ratios and herbivory. Thus, our study indicates that nutritional quality of plants and antagonistic interactions with insect herbivores are robust against seasonal climatic extremes. Across the three functional plant guilds, herbivory increased with nitrogen concentrations. Further, increased CN ratios indicate a reduction in nutritional plant quality with advancing season. Although our results revealed no direct effects of extreme climatic events, the opposing responses of plant guilds along elevation imply that competitive interactions within plant communities might change under future climates, with unknown consequences for plant-herbivore interactions and plant community composition.

  17. Climate change and health in Israel: adaptation policies for extreme weather events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Manfred S; Pri-Or, Noemie Groag; Capeluto, Guedi; Epstein, Yoram; Paz, Shlomit

    2013-01-01

    Climatic changes have increased the world-wide frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves, cold spells, floods, storms and droughts. These extreme events potentially affect the health status of millions of people, increasing disease and death. Since mitigation of climate change is a long and complex process, emphasis has recently been placed on the measures required for adaptation. Although the principles underlying these measures are universal, preparedness plans and policies need to be tailored to local conditions. In this paper, we conducted a review of the literature on the possible health consequences of extreme weather events in Israel, where the conditions are characteristic of the Mediterranean region. Strong evidence indicates that the frequency and duration of several types of extreme weather events are increasing in the Mediterranean Basin, including Israel. We examined the public health policy implications for adaptation to climate change in the region, and proposed public health adaptation policy options. Preparedness for the public health impact of increased extreme weather events is still relatively limited and clear public health policies are urgently needed. These include improved early warning and monitoring systems, preparedness of the health system, educational programs and the living environment. Regional collaboration should be a priority.

  18. Extreme weather events: Should drinking water quality management systems adapt to changing risk profiles?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Stuart J; Deere, Daniel; Leusch, Frederic D L; Humpage, Andrew; Jenkins, Madeleine; Cunliffe, David

    2015-11-15

    Among the most widely predicted and accepted consequences of global climate change are increases in both the frequency and severity of a variety of extreme weather events. Such weather events include heavy rainfall and floods, cyclones, droughts, heatwaves, extreme cold, and wildfires, each of which can potentially impact drinking water quality by affecting water catchments, storage reservoirs, the performance of water treatment processes or the integrity of distribution systems. Drinking water guidelines, such as the Australian Drinking Water Guidelines and the World Health Organization Guidelines for Drinking-water Quality, provide guidance for the safe management of drinking water. These documents present principles and strategies for managing risks that may be posed to drinking water quality. While these principles and strategies are applicable to all types of water quality risks, very little specific attention has been paid to the management of extreme weather events. We present a review of recent literature on water quality impacts of extreme weather events and consider practical opportunities for improved guidance for water managers. We conclude that there is a case for an enhanced focus on the management of water quality impacts from extreme weather events in future revisions of water quality guidance documents.

  19. Recent changes in extreme rainfall events in Peninsular Malaysia: 1971-2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan Zin, Wan Zawiah; Jamaludin, Suhaila; Deni, Sayang Mohd; Jemain, Abdul Aziz

    2009-05-01

    This paper assesses recent changes in extremes of annual rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia based on daily rainfall data for ten rain-gauged stations over the period 1971-2005. Eight indices that represent the extreme events are defined and analyzed. Maps of trends for these indices, which are extreme dry spell (XDS), extreme rain sum (XRS), extreme wet day intensities at 95% and 99% percentiles (I95 and I99), proportion of extreme wet day to the total wet day (R95 and R99), and frequency of extreme wet day at 95% and 99% percentiles (N95 and N99), were analyzed based on annual data and seasons. When the indices are evaluated annually, the Mann-Kendall and linear regression trend tests showed increasing trends in the extreme intensity indices (I95 and I99) at two stations. A significant decrease in N99, associated with the frequency of extremely wet days, was observed at 60% of the stations. The change points for these indices are found to occur in the period of the 1980s. There is no significant trend detected for XDS, XRS, and proportion of extreme rainfall over total rainfall amount indices during the period considered in this study. Descriptive analysis of indices during the monsoon period showed that the annual spatial pattern for the peninsula is very much influenced by the northeast monsoon where the highest mean values for majority of the indices occur during this time period.

  20. Do Solar Coronal Holes Affect the Properties of Solar Energetic Particle Events?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahler, S. W.; Arge, C. N.; Akiyama, S.; Gopalswamy, N.

    2014-02-01

    The intensities and timescales of gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events at 1 AU may depend not only on the characteristics of shocks driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs), but also on large-scale coronal and interplanetary structures. It has long been suspected that the presence of coronal holes (CHs) near the CMEs or near the 1-AU magnetic footpoints may be an important factor in SEP events. We used a group of 41 E≈ 20 MeV SEP events with origins near the solar central meridian to search for such effects. First we investigated whether the presence of a CH directly between the sources of the CME and of the magnetic connection at 1 AU is an important factor. Then we searched for variations of the SEP events among different solar wind (SW) stream types: slow, fast, and transient. Finally, we considered the separations between CME sources and CH footpoint connections from 1 AU determined from four-day forecast maps based on Mount Wilson Observatory and the National Solar Observatory synoptic magnetic-field maps and the Wang-Sheeley-Arge model of SW propagation. The observed in-situ magnetic-field polarities and SW speeds at SEP event onsets tested the forecast accuracies employed to select the best SEP/CH connection events for that analysis. Within our limited sample and the three analytical treatments, we found no statistical evidence for an effect of CHs on SEP event peak intensities, onset times, or rise times. The only exception is a possible enhancement of SEP peak intensities in magnetic clouds.

  1. Modeling solar energetic particle events using ENLIL heliosphere simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luhmann, J. G.; Mays, M. L.; Odstrcil, D.; Li, Yan; Bain, H.; Lee, C. O.; Galvin, A. B.; Mewaldt, R. A.; Cohen, C. M. S.; Leske, R. A.; Larson, D.; Futaana, Y.

    2017-07-01

    Solar energetic particle (SEP) event modeling has gained renewed attention in part because of the availability of a decade of multipoint measurements from STEREO and L1 spacecraft at 1 AU. These observations are coupled with improving simulations of the geometry and strength of heliospheric shocks obtained by using coronagraph images to send erupted material into realistic solar wind backgrounds. The STEREO and ACE measurements in particular have highlighted the sometimes surprisingly widespread nature of SEP events. It is thus an opportune time for testing SEP models, which typically focus on protons 1-100 MeV, toward both physical insight to these observations and potentially useful space radiation environment forecasting tools. Some approaches emphasize the concept of particle acceleration and propagation from close to the Sun, while others emphasize the local field line connection to a traveling, evolving shock source. Among the latter is the previously introduced SEPMOD treatment, based on the widely accessible and well-exercised WSA-ENLIL-cone model. SEPMOD produces SEP proton time profiles at any location within the ENLIL domain. Here we demonstrate a SEPMOD version that accommodates multiple, concurrent shock sources occurring over periods of several weeks. The results illustrate the importance of considering longer-duration time periods and multiple CME contributions in analyzing, modeling, and forecasting SEP events.

  2. Ensemble reconstruction of spatio-temporal extreme low-flow events in France since 1871

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caillouet, Laurie; Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Sauquet, Eric; Devers, Alexandre; Graff, Benjamin

    2017-06-01

    The length of streamflow observations is generally limited to the last 50 years even in data-rich countries like France. It therefore offers too small a sample of extreme low-flow events to properly explore the long-term evolution of their characteristics and associated impacts. To overcome this limit, this work first presents a daily 140-year ensemble reconstructed streamflow dataset for a reference network of near-natural catchments in France. This dataset, called SCOPE Hydro (Spatially COherent Probabilistic Extended Hydrological dataset), is based on (1) a probabilistic precipitation, temperature, and reference evapotranspiration downscaling of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis over France, called SCOPE Climate, and (2) continuous hydrological modelling using SCOPE Climate as forcings over the whole period. This work then introduces tools for defining spatio-temporal extreme low-flow events. Extreme low-flow events are first locally defined through the sequent peak algorithm using a novel combination of a fixed threshold and a daily variable threshold. A dedicated spatial matching procedure is then established to identify spatio-temporal events across France. This procedure is furthermore adapted to the SCOPE Hydro 25-member ensemble to characterize in a probabilistic way unrecorded historical events at the national scale. Extreme low-flow events are described and compared in a spatially and temporally homogeneous way over 140 years on a large set of catchments. Results highlight well-known recent events like 1976 or 1989-1990, but also older and relatively forgotten ones like the 1878 and 1893 events. These results contribute to improving our knowledge of historical events and provide a selection of benchmark events for climate change adaptation purposes. Moreover, this study allows for further detailed analyses of the effect of climate variability and anthropogenic climate change on low-flow hydrology at the scale of France.

  3. Using Atmospheric Circulation Patterns to Detect and Attribute Changes in the Risk of Extreme Climate Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Horton, D. E.; Singh, D.; Swain, D. L.; Touma, D. E.; Mankin, J. S.

    2015-12-01

    Because of the high cost of extreme events and the growing evidence that global warming is likely to alter the statistical distribution of climate variables, detection and attribution of changes in the probability of extreme climate events has become a pressing topic for the scientific community, elected officials, and the public. While most of the emphasis has thus far focused on analyzing the climate variable of interest (most often temperature or precipitation, but also flooding and drought), there is an emerging emphasis on applying detection and attribution analysis techniques to the underlying physical causes of individual extreme events. This approach is promising in part because the underlying physical causes (such as atmospheric circulation patterns) can in some cases be more accurately represented in climate models than the more proximal climate variable (such as precipitation). In addition, and more scientifically critical, is the fact that the most extreme events result from a rare combination of interacting causes, often referred to as "ingredients". Rare events will therefore always have a strong influence of "natural" variability. Analyzing the underlying physical mechanisms can therefore help to test whether there have been changes in the probability of the constituent conditions of an individual event, or whether the co-occurrence of causal conditions cannot be distinguished from random chance. This presentation will review approaches to applying detection/attribution analysis to the underlying physical causes of extreme events (including both "thermodynamic" and "dynamic" causes), and provide a number of case studies, including the role of frequency of atmospheric circulation patterns in the probability of hot, cold, wet and dry events.

  4. Uncertainties Related to Extreme Event Statistics of Sewer System Surcharge and Overflow

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schaarup-Jensen, Kjeld; Johansen, C.; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke

    2005-01-01

    by performing long term simulations - using a sewer flow simulation model - and draw up extreme event statistics from the model simulations. In this context it is important to realize that uncertainties related to the input parameters of rainfall runoff models will give rise to uncertainties related...... to draw up extreme event statistics covering return periods of as much as 33 years. By comparing these two different extreme event statistics it is evident that these to a great extent depend on the uncertainties related to the input parameters of the rainfall runoff model....... proceeding in an acceptable manner, if flooding of these levels is having an average return period bigger than a predefined value. This practice is also often used in functional analysis of existing sewer systems. If a sewer system can fulfil recommended flooding frequencies or not, can only be verified...

  5. Extreme events induced by self-action of laser beams in dynamic nonlinear liquid crystal cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bugaychuk, S.; Iljin, A.; Chunikhina, K.

    2017-06-01

    Optical extreme events represent a feature of nonlinear systems where there may emerge individual pulses possessing very high (or very low) intensity hardly probable statistically. Such property is being connected with the generation of solitons in the nonlinear systems. We carry out the first experiments for detection of extreme events during two-wave mixing with nonlinear dynamical liquid crystal (LC) cells. We investigate the statistics of the extreme events in dependence on relation between the duration of a laser pulse and the time characteristic of dynamic grating relaxation in LC cell. Our research shows that the self-diffraction of laser beams with a dynamical grating support the generation of envelope solitons in this system.

  6. Representation of extreme precipitation events in Nepal in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Woosung; Ryu, Byeong; Yun, Myong

    2016-04-01

    Nepal is highly vulnerable to of extreme climate events due in part to its mountainous terrain and lack of infrastructure. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme temperature and precipitation events worldwide, with particularly severe impacts likely in Nepal. In this study we analyze the performance of general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) at simulating temperature and precipitation in Nepal relative to the NCEP Reanalysis II and observational data, and we project how extreme events may change during the 21st century. We analyze the uncertainty in our projections, and compare the current generation of models in CMIP5 to prior results in this region using older climate models. Finally, we consider the impact of our projections on Nepal's society and economy.

  7. Predictions of Leukemia Risks to Astronauts from Solar Particle Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucinotta, F. A.; Atwell, W.; Kim, M. Y.; George, K. A.; Ponomarev, A.; Nikjoo, H.; Wilson, J. W.

    2006-01-01

    Leukemias consisting of acute and chronic myeloid leukemia and acute lymphatic lymphomas represent the earliest cancers that appear after radiation exposure, have a high lethality fraction, and make up a significant fraction of the overall fatal cancer risk from radiation for adults. Several considerations impact the recommendation of a preferred model for the estimation of leukemia risks from solar particle events (SPE's): The BEIR VII report recommends several changes to the method of calculation of leukemia risk compared to the methods recommended by the NCRP Report No. 132 including the preference of a mixture model with additive and multiplicative components in BEIR VII compared to the additive transfer model recommended by NCRP Report No. 132. Proton fluences and doses vary considerably across marrow regions because of the characteristic spectra of primary solar protons making the use of an average dose suspect. Previous estimates of bone marrow doses from SPE's have used an average body-shielding distribution for marrow based on the computerized anatomical man model (CAM). We have developed an 82-point body-shielding distribution that faithfully reproduces the mean and variance of SPE doses in the active marrow regions (head and neck, chest, abdomen, pelvis and thighs) allowing for more accurate estimation of linear- and quadratic-dose components of the marrow response. SPE's have differential dose-rates and a pseudo-quadratic dose response term is possible in the peak-flux period of an event. Also, the mechanistic basis for leukemia risk continues to improve allowing for improved strategies in choosing dose-rate modulation factors and radiation quality descriptors. We make comparisons of the various choices of the components in leukemia risk estimates in formulating our preferred model. A major finding is that leukemia could be the dominant risk to astronauts for a major solar particle event.

  8. GLOBAL ENERGETICS OF THIRTY-EIGHT LARGE SOLAR ERUPTIVE EVENTS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Emslie, A. G. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Western Kentucky University, Bowling Green, KY 42101 (United States); Dennis, B. R.; Shih, A. Y.; Chamberlin, P. C. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Code 671, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States); Mewaldt, R. A. [Space Radiation Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Moore, C. S. [Center for Astrophysics and Space Astronomy, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309 (United States); Share, G. H. [Department of Astronomy, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 (United States); Vourlidas, A. [Naval Research Laboratory, Code 7663, Washington, DC 20375 (United States); Welsch, B. T., E-mail: emslieg@wku.edu, E-mail: brian.r.dennis@nasa.gov, E-mail: albert.y.shih@nasa.gov, E-mail: phillip.c.chamberlin@nasa.gov, E-mail: rmewaldt@srl.caltech.edu, E-mail: christopher.moore-1@colorado.edu, E-mail: share@astro.umd.edu, E-mail: vourlidas@nrl.navy.mil, E-mail: welsch@ssl.berkeley.edu [Space Sciences Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States)

    2012-11-01

    We have evaluated the energetics of 38 solar eruptive events observed by a variety of spacecraft instruments between 2002 February and 2006 December, as accurately as the observations allow. The measured energetic components include: (1) the radiated energy in the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite 1-8 A band, (2) the total energy radiated from the soft X-ray (SXR) emitting plasma, (3) the peak energy in the SXR-emitting plasma, (4) the bolometric radiated energy over the full duration of the event, (5) the energy in flare-accelerated electrons above 20 keV and in flare-accelerated ions above 1 MeV, (6) the kinetic and potential energies of the coronal mass ejection (CME), (7) the energy in solar energetic particles (SEPs) observed in interplanetary space, and (8) the amount of free (non-potential) magnetic energy estimated to be available in the pertinent active region. Major conclusions include: (1) the energy radiated by the SXR-emitting plasma exceeds, by about half an order of magnitude, the peak energy content of the thermal plasma that produces this radiation; (2) the energy content in flare-accelerated electrons and ions is sufficient to supply the bolometric energy radiated across all wavelengths throughout the event; (3) the energy contents of flare-accelerated electrons and ions are comparable; (4) the energy in SEPs is typically a few percent of the CME kinetic energy (measured in the rest frame of the solar wind); and (5) the available magnetic energy is sufficient to power the CME, the flare-accelerated particles, and the hot thermal plasma.

  9. Global Energetics of Several Large Solar Eruptive Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emslie, A. G.; Dennis, B. R.; Shih, A. Y.; Chamberlin, P. C.; Mewaldt, R. A.; Share, G. H.; Vourlidas, A.; Welsch, B. T.

    2012-01-01

    We have evaluated the energetics of 38 solar eruptive events observed by a variety of spacecraft instruments between February 2002 and December 2006, as accurately as the observations allow. The measured energetic components include: (1) the radiated energy in the GOES 1 { 8 A band; (2) the total energy radiated from the soft X-ray (SXR) emitting plasma; (3) the peak energy in the SXR-emitting plasma; (4) the bolometric radiated energy over the full duration of the event; (5) the energy in are-accelerated electrons above 20 keV and in ions above 1 MeV; (6) the kinetic and potential energies of the coronal mass ejection (CME); (7) the energy in solar energetic particles (SEPs); and (8) the amount of free (nonpotential) magnetic energy estimated to be available in the pertinent active region. Major conclusions include: (1) the energy radiated by the SXR-emitting plasma exceeds, by about half an order of magnitude, the peak energy content of the thermal plasma that produces this radiation; (2) the energy content in are-accelerated electrons and ions is sufficient to supply the bolometric energy radiated across all wavelengths throughout the event; (3) the energy contents of are-accelerated electrons and ions are comparable; (4) the energy in SEPs is typically a few percent of the CME kinetic energy (measured in the rest frame of the solar wind); and (5) the available magnetic energy is sufficient to power the CME, the are-accelerated particles, and the hot thermal plasma.

  10. Army Corps of Engineers: Efforts to Assess the Impact of Extreme Weather Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-07-01

    southern California dam, which allowed the Corps to retain rainwater to help respond to the state’s extreme drought conditions . The Corps has assessed...anticipate, prepare for, respond to, and adapt to changing conditions and to withstand and recover rapidly from disruptions with minimal damage. As directed... Extreme Weather Events in the Planning Process Page 16 GAO-15-660 Army Corps of Engineers adapting projects to this projected change.27

  11. Research on Trends in Extreme Weather Events and their Effects on Grapevine in Romanian Viticulture

    OpenAIRE

    Georgeta Mihaela Bucur; Anca Cristina Babes

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this work was to investigate the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in various centers from Romania’s viticultural regions: winter frost, extreme temperatures during the growing season and summer droughts. Winter frost damaging the vine is a significant risk to grape production, mainly in the plains and lowlands to the foothills. The frequency of winter frost damaging the vine has increased during the last decades, in the context of climate change. Also, there has be...

  12. Trend in frequency of extreme precipitation events over Ontario from ensembles of multiple GCMs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Ziwang; Qiu, Xin; Liu, Jinliang; Madras, Neal; Wang, Xiaogang; Zhu, Huaiping

    2016-05-01

    As one of the most important extreme weather event types, extreme precipitation events have significant impacts on human and natural environment. This study assesses the projected long term trends in frequency of occurrence of extreme precipitation events represented by heavy precipitation days, very heavy precipitation days, very wet days and extreme wet days over Ontario, based on results of 21 CMIP3 GCM runs. To achieve this goal, first, all model data are linearly interpolated onto 682 grid points (0.45° × 0.45°) in Ontario; Next, biases in model daily precipitation amount are corrected with a local intensity scaling method to make the total wet days and total wet day precipitation from each of the GCMs are consistent with that from the climate forecast system reanalysis data, and then the four indices are estimated for each of the 21 GCM runs for 1968-2000, 2046-2065 and 2081-2100. After that, with the assumption that the rate parameter of the Poisson process for the occurrence of extreme precipitation events may vary with time as climate changes, the Poisson regression model which expresses the log rate as a linear function of time is used to detect the trend in frequency of extreme events in the GCMs simulations; Finally, the trends and their uncertainty are estimated. The result shows that in the twenty-first century annual heavy precipitation days, very heavy precipitation days and very wet days and extreme wet days are likely to significantly increase over major parts of Ontario and particularly heavy precipitation days, very wet days are very likely to significantly increase in some sub-regions in eastern Ontario. However, trends of seasonal indices are not significant.

  13. Modelling of aircrew radiation exposure during solar particle events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Al Anid, H.; Lewis, B.J.; Bennett, L.G.I. [Royal Military College of Canada, Dept. of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, Kingston, Ontario (Canada); Takada, M. [National Inst. of Radiological Science, International Space Radiation Lab., anagawa, Inage-Ku, Chiba (Japan)

    2010-07-01

    A transport code analysis using the Monte Carlo N-Particle eXtended code, MCNPX, has been used to propagate an extrapolated particle spectrum based on satellite measurements through the atmosphere to estimate radiation exposure during solar storms at high altitudes. Neutron monitor count rate data from stations around the world were used to benchmark the model calculations during a Ground Level Event. A comparison was made between the model predictions and actual flight measurements taken with various types of instruments used to measure the mixed radiation field during GLE 60. A computer-code has been developed to implement the model for routine analysis. (author)

  14. Modelling of aircrew radiation exposure during solar particle events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Al Anid, H.; Lewis, B.J.; Bennett, L.G.I. [Royal Military College of Canada, Dept. of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, Kingston, Ontario (Canada); Takada, M. [National Inst. of Radiological Science, International Space Radiation Lab., Anagawa, Inage-Ku, Chiba (Japan)

    2011-03-15

    A transport code analysis using the Monte Carlo N-Particle eXtended code, MCNPX, has been used to propagate an extrapolated particle spectrum based on satellite measurements through the atmosphere to estimate radiation exposure during solar storms at high altitudes. Neutron monitor count rate data from stations around the world were used to benchmark the model calculations during a Ground Level Event. A comparison was made between the model predictions and actual flight measurements taken with various types of instruments used to measure the mixed radiation field during GLE 60. A computer-code has been developed to implement the model for routine analysis. (author)

  15. Extreme Events and Disaster Risk Reduction - a Future Earth KAN initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, Dorothea; Reichstein, Markus

    2017-04-01

    The topic of Extreme Events in the context of global environmental change is both a scientifically challenging and exciting topic, and of very high societal relevance. The Future Earth Cluster initiative E3S organized in 2016 a cross-community/co-design workshop on Extreme Events and Environments from Climate to Society (http://www.e3s-future-earth.eu/index.php/ConferencesEvents/ConferencesAmpEvents). Based on the results, co-design research strategies and established network of the workshop, and previous activities, E3S is thriving to establish the basis for a longer-term research effort under the umbrella of Future Earth. These led to an initiative for a Future Earth Knowledge Action Network on Extreme Events and Disaster Risk Reduction. Example initial key question in this context include: What are meaningful indices to describe and quantify impact-relevant (e.g. climate) extremes? Which system properties yield resistance and resilience to extreme conditions? What are the key interactions between global urbanization processes, extreme events, and social and infrastructure vulnerability and resilience? The long-term goal of this KAN is to contribute to enhancing the resistance, resilience, and adaptive capacity of socio-ecological systems across spatial, temporal and institutional scales, in particular in the light of hazards affected by ongoing environmental change (e.g. climate change, global urbanization and land use/land cover change). This can be achieved by enhanced understanding, prediction, improved and open data and knowledge bases for detection and early warning decision making, and by new insights on natural and societal conditions and governance for resilience and adaptive capacity.

  16. Extreme events: being prepared for the pitfalls with progressing sustainable urban water management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keath, N A; Brown, R R

    2009-01-01

    It is widely accepted that new, more sustainable approaches to urban water management are required if cities and ecosystems are to become resilient to the effects of growing urban populations and global warming. Climate change predictions show that it is likely that cities around the world will be subject to an increasing number of extreme and less predictable events including flooding and drought. Historical transition studies have shown that major events such as extremes can expedite the adoption of new practices by destabilising existing management regimes and opening up new windows of opportunity for change. Yet, they can also act to reinforce and further entrench old practices. This case study of two Australian cities responding to extreme water scarcity reveals that being unprepared for extremes can undermine progress towards sustainable outcomes. The results showed that despite evidence of significant progress towards sustainable urban water management in Brisbane and Melbourne, the extreme water scarcity acted to reinforce traditional practices at the expense of emerging sustainability niches. Drawing upon empirical research and transitions literature, recommendations are provided for developing institutional mechanisms that are able to respond proactively to extreme events and be a catalyst for SUWM when such opportunities for change arise.

  17. Estimating return periods for daily precipitation extreme events over the Brazilian Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Eliane Barbosa; Lucio, Paulo Sérgio; Santos e Silva, Cláudio Moisés

    2016-11-01

    This paper aims to model the occurrence of daily precipitation extreme events and to estimate the return period of these events through the extreme value theory (generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) and the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD)). The GEV and GPD were applied in precipitation series of homogeneous regions of the Brazilian Amazon. The GEV and GPD goodness of fit were evaluated by quantile-quantile (Q-Q) plot and by the application of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test, which compares the cumulated empirical distributions with the theoretical ones. The Q-Q plot suggests that the probability distributions of the studied series are appropriated, and these results were confirmed by the KS test, which demonstrates that the tested distributions have a good fit in all sub-regions of Amazon, thus adequate to study the daily precipitation extreme event. For all return levels studied, more intense precipitation extremes is expected to occur within the South sub-regions and the coastal area of the Brazilian Amazon. The results possibly will have some practical application in local extreme weather forecast.

  18. Extreme Events in China under Climate Change: Uncertainty and related impacts (CSSP-FOREX)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leckebusch, Gregor C.; Befort, Daniel J.; Hodges, Kevin I.

    2016-04-01

    Suitable adaptation strategies or the timely initiation of related mitigation efforts in East Asia will strongly depend on robust and comprehensive information about future near-term as well as long-term potential changes in the climate system. Therefore, understanding the driving mechanisms associated with the East Asian climate is of major importance. The FOREX project (Fostering Regional Decision Making by the Assessment of Uncertainties of Future Regional Extremes and their Linkage to Global Climate System Variability for China and East Asia) focuses on the investigation of extreme wind and rainfall related events over Eastern Asia and their possible future changes. Here, analyses focus on the link between local extreme events and their driving weather systems. This includes the coupling between local rainfall extremes and tropical cyclones, the Meiyu frontal system, extra-tropical teleconnections and monsoonal activity. Furthermore, the relation between these driving weather systems and large-scale variability modes, e.g. NAO, PDO, ENSO is analysed. Thus, beside analysing future changes of local extreme events, the temporal variability of their driving weather systems and related large-scale variability modes will be assessed in current CMIP5 global model simulations to obtain more robust results. Beyond an overview of FOREX itself, first results regarding the link between local extremes and their steering weather systems based on observational and reanalysis data are shown. Special focus is laid on the contribution of monsoonal activity, tropical cyclones and the Meiyu frontal system on the inter-annual variability of the East Asian summer rainfall.

  19. Extreme climatic events in relation to global change and their impact on life histories

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Juan MORENO; Anders Pape Mφller

    2011-01-01

    Extreme weather conditions occur at an increasing rate as evidenced by higher frequency of hurricanes and more extreme precipitation and temperature anomalies. Such extreme environmental conditions will have important implications for all living organisms through greater frequency of reproductive failure and reduced adult survival. We review examples of reproductive failure and reduced survival related to extreme weather conditions. Phenotypic plasticity may not be sufficient to allow adaptation to extreme weather for many animals. Theory predicts reduced reproductive effort as a response to increased stochasticity. We predict that patterns of natural selection will change towards truncation selection as environmental conditions become more extreme. Such changes in patterns of selection may facilitate adaptation to extreme events. However, effects of selection on reproductive effort are difficult to detect. We present a number of predictions for the effects of extreme weather conditions in need of empirical tests. Finally, we suggest a number of empirical reviews that could improve our ability to judge the effects of extreme environmental conditions on life history.

  20. Extreme climatic events in relation to global change and their impact on life histories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan MORENO, Anders Pape Møller

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Extreme weather conditions occur at an increasing rate as evidenced by higher frequency of hurricanes and more extreme precipitation and temperature anomalies. Such extreme environmental conditions will have important implications for all living organisms through greater frequency of reproductive failure and reduced adult survival. We review examples of reproductive failure and reduced survival related to extreme weather conditions. Phenotypic plasticity may not be sufficient to allow adaptation to extreme weather for many animals. Theory predicts reduced reproductive effort as a response to increased stochasticity. We predict that patterns of natural selection will change towards truncation selection as environmental conditions become more extreme. Such changes in patterns of selection may facilitate adaptation to extreme events. However, effects of selection on reproductive effort are difficult to detect. We present a number of predictions for the effects of extreme weather conditions in need of empirical tests. Finally, we suggest a number of empirical reviews that could improve our ability to judge the effects of extreme environmental conditions on life history [Current Zoology 57 (3: 375–389, 2011].

  1. Extreme Space Weather Events and Charging Hazard Assessments in Lunar Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minow, Joseph I.; Parker, Linda N.; Blackwell, William C., Jr.

    2008-01-01

    The sunlit lunar surface charges to positive potentials with mean values of a few tens of volts where photoelectron currents dominate the charging process. In contrast, surfaces in darkness may charge to negative potentials on the order of a few hundred volts when the charging process is dominated by hot electron populations in the absence of solar photons. Recently, observations of electron beams measured by instruments on spacecraft in low lunar orbit have been interpreted as evidence for extreme lunar surface potentials exceeding a few kilovolts suggesting that lunar orbital and surface plasma environments may contain charging risks similar to geostationary orbit during extreme space weather conditions. Space system design for successful operation in a wide range of lunar environments will therefore require evaluation of charging hazards during extreme space weather conditions. We present results from a study of space weather environments conducted to obtained credible extreme charging environments for use in charging hazard assessments for lunar missions including extreme conditions encountered when the Moon is in the solar wind, the magnetosheath, and the Earth's magnetotail.

  2. Modelling of aircrew radiation exposure during solar particle events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al Anid, Hani Khaled

    In 1990, the International Commission on Radiological Protection recognized the occupational exposure of aircrew to cosmic radiation. In Canada, a Commercial and Business Aviation Advisory Circular was issued by Transport Canada suggesting that action should be taken to manage such exposure. In anticipation of possible regulations on exposure of Canadian-based aircrew in the near future, an extensive study was carried out at the Royal Military College of Canada to measure the radiation exposure during commercial flights. The radiation exposure to aircrew is a result of a complex mixed-radiation field resulting from Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) and Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs). Supernova explosions and active galactic nuclei are responsible for GCRs which consist of 90% protons, 9% alpha particles, and 1% heavy nuclei. While they have a fairly constant fluence rate, their interaction with the magnetic field of the Earth varies throughout the solar cycles, which has a period of approximately 11 years. SEPs are highly sporadic events that are associated with solar flares and coronal mass ejections. This type of exposure may be of concern to certain aircrew members, such as pregnant flight crew, for which the annual effective dose is limited to 1 mSv over the remainder of the pregnancy. The composition of SEPs is very similar to GCRs, in that they consist of mostly protons, some alpha particles and a few heavy nuclei, but with a softer energy spectrum. An additional factor when analysing SEPs is the effect of flare anisotropy. This refers to the way charged particles are transported through the Earth's magnetosphere in an anisotropic fashion. Solar flares that are fairly isotropic produce a uniform radiation exposure for areas that have similar geomagnetic shielding, while highly anisotropic events produce variable exposures at different locations on the Earth. Studies of neutron monitor count rates from detectors sharing similar geomagnetic shielding properties

  3. Defining extreme GIC event scenarios: why and how to meet the power engineering needs?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulkkinen, A. A.

    2016-12-01

    The latest developments in terms of the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission standards process and National Space Weather Action Plan have increased the pressure on the scientific community to develop reasonable extreme GIC event benchmarks and scenarios. At the same time, scientists and power engineerings have established robust communications that now allow passage of actionable information between the two communities. Consequently, it is now possible to describe and tailor the extreme event scenarios to meet the power engineering analysis requirements. Tailoring of the scenarios is critically important for the power engineers to be able to use the information provided by the scientific community. In this presentation, by reviewing the power transmission system impact mechanisms and engineering analyses flow, we present our current understanding of what actually is needed from the power engineering perspective to carry out extreme storm assessments. We hope that this information will help the scientific community to develop extreme event information that is directly actionable on the end-user side. We also review some of our recent work to develop extreme event information that meets the engineering needs. Some of this work was carried out in support of the FERC/NERC GMD standards development process.

  4. The Physical Processes of Eruptive Flares Revealed By An Extremely-Long-Duration Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jie; Zhou, Zhenjun

    2016-05-01

    In this work, we report the physical processes of eruptive flares inferred from an extremely- long-duration event occurred on June 21, 2011. The flare, peaked at C7.7 level, had a two-hour-long rise time in soft X-rays emission; this rise time is much longer than the typical rise time of solar flares that last for only about ten minutes. Combining the fact that the flare occurred near the disk center as seen by SDO, but near the limbs as seen by STEREO A and B, we are able to track the evolution of the eruption in 3-D as well as in a rare slow-motion manner. The time sequence of temperature maps, constructed from six corona-temperature passbands of AIA, clearly shows process of how the highly-twisted sigmoid structure prior to the eruption is transformed into a near-potential post-eruption loop arcade. The observed sigmoid is likely to be the structure of a twisted magnetic flux rope, which reached a height of about 60 Mm at the onset of the eruption. The onset is likely triggered by the torus instability (or loss of equilibrium) of the flux rope as indicated by the slow rise motion prior to the impulsive phase. We also find that the complex evolution of footprints of the eruption as seen from AIA transition region images is consistent with the magnetic evolution in the corona, which is the consequence of the combined effects of the expansion of the magnetic flux rope and the magnetic reconnection of surrounding magnetic fields.

  5. Impact of Extreme Heat Events on Emergency Department Visits in North Carolina (2007-2011).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuhrmann, Christopher M; Sugg, Margaret M; Konrad, Charles E; Waller, Anna

    2016-02-01

    Extreme heat is the leading cause of weather-related mortality in the U.S. Extreme heat also affects human health through heat stress and can exacerbate underlying medical conditions that lead to increased morbidity and mortality. In this study, data on emergency department (ED) visits for heat-related illness (HRI) and other selected diseases were analyzed during three heat events across North Carolina from 2007 to 2011. These heat events were identified based on the issuance and verification of heat products from local National Weather Service forecast offices (i.e. Heat Advisory, Heat Watch, and Excessive Heat Warning). The observed number of ED visits during these events were compared to the expected number of ED visits during several control periods to determine excess morbidity resulting from extreme heat. All recorded diagnoses were analyzed for each ED visit, thereby providing insight into the specific pathophysiological mechanisms and underlying health conditions associated with exposure to extreme heat. The most common form of HRI was heat exhaustion, while the percentage of visits with heat stroke was relatively low (65 years of age) were at greatest risk for HRI during the early summer heat event (8.9 visits per 100,000), while young and middle age adults (18-44 years of age) were at greatest risk during the mid-summer event (6.3 visits per 100,000). Many of these visits were likely due to work-related exposure. The most vulnerable demographic during the late summer heat event was adolescents (15-17 years of age), which may relate to the timing of organized sports. This demographic also exhibited the highest visit rate for HRI among all three heat events (10.5 visits per 100,000). Significant increases (p events (3-8%). The greatest increases were found in visits with hypotension during the late summer event (23%) and sequelae during the early summer event (30%), while decreases were noted for visits with hemorrhagic stroke during the middle and late

  6. On the East-West Longitudinally Asymmetric Distribution of Solar Proton Events

    CERN Document Server

    He, H -Q

    2016-01-01

    A large data set of 78 solar proton events observed near the Earth's orbit during 1996-2011 is investigated. An East-West longitudinal (azimuthal) asymmetry is found to exist in the distribution of flare sources of solar proton events. With the same longitudinal separation between the flare sources and the magnetic field line footpoint of observer, the number of the solar proton events originating from solar sources located on the eastern side of the nominal magnetic footpoint of observer is larger than the number of the solar proton events from solar sources located on the western side. We emphasize the importance of this statistical investigation in two aspects. On the one hand, this statistical finding confirms our previous simulation results obtained by numerically solving five-dimensional Fokker-Planck equation of solar energetic particle (SEP) transport. On the other hand, the East-West longitudinally (azimuthally) asymmetric distribution of solar proton events accumulated over a long time period provid...

  7. Spatial Distribution of Element Abundances and Ionization States in Solar Energetic-Particle Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reames, Donald V.

    2017-08-01

    We have studied the spatial and temporal distribution of abundances of chemical elements in large "gradual" solar energetic-particle (SEP) events, and especially the source plasma temperatures, derived from those abundances, using measurements from the Wind and Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) spacecraft, widely separated in solar longitude. A power-law relationship between abundance enhancements and mass-to-charge ratios [A/Q] of the ions can be used to determine Q-values and source plasma temperatures at remote spacecraft with instruments that were not designed for charge-state measurements. We search for possible source variations along the accelerating shock wave, finding one clear case where the accelerating shock wave appears to dispatch ions from 3.2± 0.8 MK plasma toward one spacecraft and those from 1.6± 0.2 MK plasma toward another, 116∘ away. The difference persists for three days and then fades away. Three other SEP events show less-extreme variation in source temperatures at different spacecraft, in one case observed over 222∘ in longitude. This initial study shows how the power-law relation between abundance enhancements and ion A/Q-values provides a new technique to determine Q and plasma temperatures in the seed population of SEP ions over a broad region of space using remote spacecraft with instruments that were not originally designed for measurements of ionization states.

  8. Ensemble prediction model of solar proton events associated with solar flares and coronal mass ejections

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xin Huang; Hua-Ning Wang; Le-Ping Li

    2012-01-01

    An ensemble prediction model of solar proton events (SPEs),combining the information of solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs),is built.In this model,solar flares are parameterized by the peak flux,the duration and the longitude.In addition,CMEs are parameterized by the width,the speed and the measurement position angle.The importance of each parameter for the occurrence of SPEs is estimated by the information gain ratio.We find that the CME width and speed are more informative than the flare's peak flux and duration.As the physical mechanism of SPEs is not very clear,a hidden naive Bayes approach,which is a probability-based calculation method from the field of machine learning,is used to build the prediction model from the observational data.As is known,SPEs originate from solar flares and/or shock waves associated with CMEs.Hence,we first build two base prediction models using the properties of solar flares and CMEs,respectively.Then the outputs of these models are combined to generate the ensemble prediction model of SPEs.The ensemble prediction model incorporating the complementary information of solar flares and CMEs achieves better performance than each base prediction model taken separately.

  9. On Predictive Understanding of Extreme Events: Pattern Recognition Approach; Prediction Algorithms; Applications to Disaster Preparedness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keilis-Borok, V. I.; Soloviev, A.; Gabrielov, A.

    2011-12-01

    We describe a uniform approach to predicting different extreme events, also known as critical phenomena, disasters, or crises. The following types of such events are considered: strong earthquakes; economic recessions (their onset and termination); surges of unemployment; surges of crime; and electoral changes of the governing party. A uniform approach is possible due to the common feature of these events: each of them is generated by a certain hierarchical dissipative complex system. After a coarse-graining, such systems exhibit regular behavior patterns; we look among them for "premonitory patterns" that signal the approach of an extreme event. We introduce methodology, based on the optimal control theory, assisting disaster management in choosing optimal set of disaster preparedness measures undertaken in response to a prediction. Predictions with their currently realistic (limited) accuracy do allow preventing a considerable part of the damage by a hierarchy of preparedness measures. Accuracy of prediction should be known, but not necessarily high.

  10. A Numerical Approach for Hybrid Simulation of Power System Dynamics Considering Extreme Icing Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Lizheng; Zhang, Hengxu; Wu, Qiuwei

    2017-01-01

    The global climate change leads to more extreme meteorological conditions such as icing weather, which have caused great losses to power systems. Comprehensive simulation tools are required to enhance the capability of power system risk assessment under extreme weather conditions. A hybrid...... numerical simulation scheme integrating icing weather events with power system dynamics is proposed to extend power system numerical simulation. A technique is developed to efficiently simulate the interaction of slow dynamics of weather events and fast dynamics of power systems. An extended package for PSS....../E enabling hybrid simulation of icing event and power system disturbance is developed, based on which a hybrid simulation platform is established. Numerical studies show that the functionality of power system simulation is greatly extended by taking into account the icing weather events....

  11. Experimental characterization of extreme events of inertial dissipation in a turbulent swirling flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saw, E.-W.; Kuzzay, D.; Faranda, D.; Guittonneau, A.; Daviaud, F.; Wiertel-Gasquet, C.; Padilla, V.; Dubrulle, B.

    2016-08-01

    The three-dimensional incompressible Navier-Stokes equations, which describe the motion of many fluids, are the cornerstones of many physical and engineering sciences. However, it is still unclear whether they are mathematically well posed, that is, whether their solutions remain regular over time or develop singularities. Even though it was shown that singularities, if exist, could only be rare events, they may induce additional energy dissipation by inertial means. Here, using measurements at the dissipative scale of an axisymmetric turbulent flow, we report estimates of such inertial energy dissipation and identify local events of extreme values. We characterize the topology of these extreme events and identify several main types. Most of them appear as fronts separating regions of distinct velocities, whereas events corresponding to focusing spirals, jets and cusps are also found. Our results highlight the non-triviality of turbulent flows at sub-Kolmogorov scales as possible footprints of singularities of the Navier-Stokes equation.

  12. Major Solar Eruptions and High Energy Particle Events during Solar Cycle 24

    CERN Document Server

    Gopalswamy, N; Akiyama, S; Makela, P; Yashiro, S

    2014-01-01

    We report on a study of all major solar eruptions that occurred on the front-side of the Sun during the rise to peak phase of cycle 24 (first 62 months) in order to understand the key factors affecting the occurrence of large solar energetic particle events (SEPs) and the ground levels enhancement (GLE) events. The eruptions involve major flares with soft X-ray peak flux >/= 5.0 x10-5 Wm-2 (i.e., flare size >/= M5.0) and accompanying coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The selection criterion was based on the fact that the only front-side GLE in cycle 24 (GLE 71) had a flare size of M5.1. Only ~37% of the major eruptions from the western hemisphere resulted in large SEP events. Almost the same number of large SEP events was produced in weaker eruptions (flare size events. On the other hand, the CME speed is a better indicator of SEP and GLE events because it is consistently high supporting the shock acceleration mechanism for SEP...

  13. An assessment of radiation damage in space-based germanium detectors due to solar proton events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Owens, Alan; Brandenburg, S.; Buis, E. -J.; Kliewiet, H.; Kraft, S.; Ostendorf, R. W.; Peacock, A.; Quarati, F.; Quirin, P.

    2007-01-01

    Radiation effects caused by solar proton events will be a common problem for many types of sensors on missions to the inner solar system because of the long cruise phases coupled with the inverse square scaling of solar particle events. As part of a study in support of the BepiColombo mission to Mer

  14. Radiative characteristics of aerosol during extreme fire event over Siberia in summer 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuravleva, Tatiana B.; Kabanov, Dmitriy M.; Nasrtdinov, Ilmir M.; Russkova, Tatiana V.; Sakerin, Sergey M.; Smirnov, Alexander; Holben, Brent N.

    2017-01-01

    Microphysical and optical properties of aerosol were studied during a mega-fire event in summer 2012 over Siberia using ground-based measurements of spectral solar radiation at the AERONET site in Tomsk and satellite observations. The data were analysed using multi-year (2003-2013) measurements of aerosol characteristics under background conditions and for less intense fires, differing in burning biomass type, stage of fire, remoteness from observation site, etc. (ordinary smoke). In June-August 2012, the average aerosol optical depth (AOD, 500 nm) had been 0.95 ± 0.86, about a factor of 6 larger than background values (0.16 ± 0.08), and a factor of 2.5 larger than in ordinary smoke. The AOD values were extremely high on 24-28 July and reached 3-5. A comparison with satellite observations showed that ground-based measurements in the region of Tomsk not only reflect the local AOD features, but are also characteristic for the territory of Western Siberia as a whole. Single scattering albedo (SSA, 440 nm) in this period ranged from 0.91 to 0.99 with an average of ˜ 0.96 in the entire wavelength range of 440-1020 nm. The increase in absorptance of aerosol particles (SSA(440 nm) = 0.92) and decrease in SSA with wavelength observed in ordinary smoke agree with the data from multi-year observations in analogous situations in the boreal zone of USA and Canada. Volume aerosol size distribution in extreme and ordinary smoke had a bimodal character with significant prevalence of fine-mode particles, but in summer 2012 the mean median radius and the width of the fine-mode distribution somewhat increased. In contrast to data from multi-year observations, in summer 2012 an increase in the volume concentration and median radius of the coarse mode was observed with growing AOD. The calculations of the average radiative effects of smoke and background aerosol are presented. Compared to background conditions and ordinary smoke, under the extreme smoke conditions the cooling

  15. The effects of climatic fluctuations and extreme events on running water ecosystems

    OpenAIRE

    Woodward, Guy; Bonada, Nuria; Brown, Lee E; Death, Russell G.; Durance, Isabelle; Gray, Clare; Hladyz, Sally; Mark E. Ledger; Milner, Alexander; Ormerod, Stephen; Thomson, Ross M.; Pawar, Samraat

    2016-01-01

    Most research on the effects of environmental change in freshwaters has focused on incremental changes in average conditions, rather than fluctuations or extreme events such as heatwaves, cold snaps, droughts, floods, or wildfires, which may have even more profound consequences. Such events are commonly predicted to increase in frequency, intensity, and duration with global climate change, with many systems being exposed to conditions with no recent historical precedent. We propose a mechanis...

  16. Ensuring Resilience of Natural Resources under Exposure to Extreme Climate Events

    OpenAIRE

    Brent Jacobs; Louise Boronyak-Vasco; Kristy Moyle; Peat Leith

    2016-01-01

    Natural resources directly support rural livelihoods and underpin much of the wealth of rural and regional Australia. Climate change manifesting as increasing frequency and or severity of extreme weather events poses a threat to sustainable management of natural resources because the recurrence of events may exceed the resilience of natural systems or the coping capacity of social systems. We report the findings of a series of participatory workshops with communities in eight discrete landsca...

  17. Global Energetics of Thirty-Eight Large Solar Eruptive Events

    CERN Document Server

    Emslie, A G; Shih, A Y; Chamberlin, P C; Mewaldt, R A; Moore, C S; Share, G H; Vourlidas, A; Welsch, B T

    2012-01-01

    We have evaluated the energetics of 38 solar eruptive events observed by a variety of spacecraft instruments between February 2002 and December 2006, as accurately as the observations allow. The measured energetic components include: (1) the radiated energy in the GOES 1 - 8 A band; (2) the total energy radiated from the soft X-ray (SXR) emitting plasma; (3) the peak energy in the SXR-emitting plasma; (4) the bolometric radiated energy over the full duration of the event; (5) the energy in flare-accelerated electrons above 20 keV and in flare-accelerated ions above 1 MeV; (6) the kinetic and potential energies of the coronal mass ejection (CME); (7) the energy in solar energetic particles (SEPs) observed in interplanetary space; and (8) the amount of free (nonpotential) magnetic energy estimated to be available in the pertinent active region. Major conclusions include: (1) the energy radiated by the SXR-emitting plasma exceeds, by about half an order of magnitude, the peak energy content of the thermal plasma...

  18. BOLIVAR-tool for analysis and simulation of metocean extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopatoukhin, Leonid; Boukhanovsky, Alexander

    2015-04-01

    Metocean extreme events are caused by the combination of multivariate and multiscale processes which depend from each other in different scales (due to short-term, synoptic, annual, year-to-year variability). There is no simple method for their estimation with controllable tolerance. Thus, the extreme analysis in practice is sometimes reduced to the exploration of various methods and models in respect to decreasing the uncertainty of estimates. Therefore, a researcher needs the multifaceted computational tools which cover the various branches of extreme analysis. BOLIVAR is the multi-functional computational software for the researches and engineers who explore the extreme environmental conditions to design and build offshore structures and floating objects. It contains a set of computational modules of various methods for extreme analysis, and a set of modules for the stochastic and hydrodynamic simulation of metocean processes. In this sense BOLIVAR is a Problem Solving Environment (PSE). The BOLIVAR is designed for extreme events analysis and contains a set of computational modules of IDM, AMS, POT, MENU, and SINTEF methods, and a set of modules for stochastic simulation of metocean processes in various scales. The BOLIVAR is the tool to simplify the resource-consuming computational experiments to explore the metocean extremes in univariate and multivariate cases. There are field ARMA models for short-term variability, spatial-temporal random pulse model for synoptic variability (storms and calms alteration), cyclostationare model of annual and year-to-year variability. The combination of above mentioned modules and data sources allows to estimate: omnidirectional and directional extremes (with T-years return periods); multivariate extremes (the set of parameters) and evaluation of their impacts to marine structures and floating objects; extremes of spatial-temporal fields (including the trajectory of T-years storms). An employment of concurrent methods for

  19. METHOD TO ASSESS THE EXTREME HYDROLOGICAL EVENTS IN DANUBE FLUVIAL DELTA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MARIAN MIERLĂ

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Method to assess the extreme hydrological events in Danube fluvial Delta. In this paper the subject is about of testing a method for Romania to assess the extreme hydrological events. In this paper through hydrological extreme events it should be understood as the extreme droughts and the extreme flooding. The place to be tested this method for Romania is the Danube Delta, fluvial delta to be more precisely. The importance of the area consists in the fact that is the third Delta of the Europe (after the Volga’s and Kuban’s. The method that is supposed to be tested on a specific part of the delta is aiming to rise the knowledge about the extreme hydrological events (drought and flooding and to be able to respond in an appropriate way to these. For this paper it will be taken into account the hydrological events occurred in 2003 (the exceptional drought and in 2006 (the exceptional flood. To do the analysis there were used satellite images (LANDSAT from the period that was taken into account and additional there were used the hypsometrical model of the Danube Delta for the specific area. The first two datasets (2003 and 2006 satellite images give information about were the border of the water (in drought period and respective in flooding one reached. The second dataset (the delta’s hypsometry give information about the altitude of the terrain in order to establish which areas, at a certain water level, are flooded. The result of these datasets combination is the calibration of the hypsometrical model of the Danube Delta, in that region, regarding the hydrological events in the sense of building-up the hydrograds as isolines. The new approach of this matter can be more concrete and makes easier to see on the cartographic support the hydrologic events. The information obtained from these datasets makes the awareness regarding the extreme hydrological events to be higher and respective the measures taken to mitigate these will be more efficient.

  20. Erosion during extreme flood events dominates Holocene canyon evolution in northeast Iceland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baynes, Edwin R C; Attal, Mikaël; Niedermann, Samuel; Kirstein, Linda A; Dugmore, Andrew J; Naylor, Mark

    2015-02-24

    Extreme flood events have the potential to cause catastrophic landscape change in short periods of time (10(0) to 10(3) h). However, their impacts are rarely considered in studies of long-term landscape evolution (>10(3) y), because the mechanisms of erosion during such floods are poorly constrained. Here we use topographic analysis and cosmogenic (3)He surface exposure dating of fluvially sculpted surfaces to determine the impact of extreme flood events within the Jökulsárgljúfur canyon (northeast Iceland) and to constrain the mechanisms of bedrock erosion during these events. Surface exposure ages allow identification of three periods of intense canyon cutting about 9 ka ago, 5 ka ago, and 2 ka ago during which multiple large knickpoints retreated large distances (>2 km). During these events, a threshold flow depth was exceeded, leading to the toppling and transportation of basalt lava columns. Despite continuing and comparatively large-scale (500 m(3)/s) discharge of sediment-rich glacial meltwater, there is no evidence for a transition to an abrasion-dominated erosion regime since the last erosive event because the vertical knickpoints have not diffused over time. We provide a model for the evolution of the Jökulsárgljúfur canyon through the reconstruction of the river profile and canyon morphology at different stages over the last 9 ka and highlight the dominant role played by extreme flood events in the shaping of this landscape during the Holocene.

  1. Local instability driving extreme events in a pair of coupled chaotic electronic circuits

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Oliveira, Gilson F.; Di Lorenzo, Orlando; de Silans, Thierry Passerat; Chevrollier, Martine; Oriá, Marcos; Cavalcante, Hugo L. D. de Souza

    2016-06-01

    For a long time, extreme events happening in complex systems, such as financial markets, earthquakes, and neurological networks, were thought to follow power-law size distributions. More recently, evidence suggests that in many systems the largest and rarest events differ from the other ones. They are dragon kings, outliers that make the distribution deviate from a power law in the tail. Understanding the processes of formation of extreme events and what circumstances lead to dragon kings or to a power-law distribution is an open question and it is a very important one to assess whether extreme events will occur too often in a specific system. In the particular system studied in this paper, we show that the rate of occurrence of dragon kings is controlled by the value of a parameter. The system under study here is composed of two nearly identical chaotic oscillators which fail to remain in a permanently synchronized state when coupled. We analyze the statistics of the desynchronization events in this specific example of two coupled chaotic electronic circuits and find that modifying a parameter associated to the local instability responsible for the loss of synchronization reduces the occurrence of dragon kings, while preserving the power-law distribution of small- to intermediate-size events with the same scaling exponent. Our results support the hypothesis that the dragon kings are caused by local instabilities in the phase space.

  2. Extreme sea events during the last millennium in the northeast of Morocco

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raji, O.; Dezileau, L.; Von Grafenstein, U.; Niazi, S.; Snoussi, M.; Martinez, P.

    2015-02-01

    The Moroccan Mediterranean coast is located in one of the area's most vulnerable to extreme weather events or tsunami hazards. The objective of this research is to reconstruct the historical extreme submersion-event record using sea-induced deposits preserved in coastal lagoon. The Nador lagoon is the largest Moroccan lagoon (115 km2). It is located along the western Mediterranean, which has a high cyclogenetic character and is exposed to tsunamis from the Alboran Sea. The sandy barrier which separates the lagoon from the Mediterranean Sea is marked by much overwash, which indicate how intensely it has been exposed to the adverse sea events through history. Using the UWITEC© gravity coring platform, an undisturbed MC4.5 core (1.15 m long) was successfully sampled in the studied lagoon. To identify extreme sea events, a multi-proxy approach was applied combining sedimentological and geochemical data. Three paleoevents were identified; all of them are concentrated over the last 500 years, and the most recent event corresponds to the 1889 storm. For the others deposits, it is difficult to determine exactly their origin; however, the high frequency of storm events over the relevant period and the absence of historical tsunamis evidence is more in favor of the meteorological origin.

  3. Proactive modeling of water quality impacts of extreme precipitation events in a drinking water reservoir.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeznach, Lillian C; Hagemann, Mark; Park, Mi-Hyun; Tobiason, John E

    2017-10-01

    Extreme precipitation events are of concern to managers of drinking water sources because these occurrences can affect both water supply quantity and quality. However, little is known about how these low probability events impact organic matter and nutrient loads to surface water sources and how these loads may impact raw water quality. This study describes a method for evaluating the sensitivity of a water body of interest from watershed input simulations under extreme precipitation events. An example application of the method is illustrated using the Wachusett Reservoir, an oligo-mesotrophic surface water reservoir in central Massachusetts and a major drinking water supply to metropolitan Boston. Extreme precipitation event simulations during the spring and summer resulted in total organic carbon, UV-254 (a surrogate measurement for reactive organic matter), and total algae concentrations at the drinking water intake that exceeded recorded maximums. Nutrient concentrations after storm events were less likely to exceed recorded historical maximums. For this particular reservoir, increasing inter-reservoir transfers of water with lower organic matter content after a large precipitation event has been shown in practice and in model simulations to decrease organic matter levels at the drinking water intake, therefore decreasing treatment associated oxidant demand, energy for UV disinfection, and the potential for formation of disinfection byproducts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Climate change, extreme events and increased risk of salmonellosis in Maryland, USA: Evidence for coastal vulnerability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Chengsheng; Shaw, Kristi S; Upperman, Crystal R; Blythe, David; Mitchell, Clifford; Murtugudde, Raghu; Sapkota, Amy R; Sapkota, Amir

    2015-10-01

    Salmonella is a leading cause of acute gastroenteritis worldwide. Patterns of salmonellosis have been linked to weather events. However, there is a dearth of data regarding the association between extreme events and risk of salmonellosis, and how this risk may disproportionately impact coastal communities. We obtained Salmonella case data from the Maryland Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (2002-2012), and weather data from the National Climatic Data Center (1960-2012). We developed exposure metrics related to extreme temperature and precipitation events using a 30 year baseline (1960-1989) and linked them with county-level salmonellosis data. Data were analyzed using negative binomial Generalized Estimating Equations. We observed a 4.1% increase in salmonellosis risk associated with a 1 unit increase in extreme temperature events (incidence rate ratio (IRR):1.041; 95% confidence interval (CI):1.013-1.069). This increase in risk was more pronounced in coastal versus non-coastal areas (5.1% vs 1.5%). Likewise, we observed a 5.6% increase in salmonellosis risk (IRR:1.056; CI:1.035-1.078) associated with a 1 unit increase in extreme precipitation events, with the impact disproportionately felt in coastal areas (7.1% vs 3.6%). To our knowledge, this is the first empirical evidence showing that extreme temperature/precipitation events-that are expected to be more frequent and intense in coming decades-are disproportionately impacting coastal communities with regard to salmonellosis. Adaptation strategies need to account for this differential burden, particularly in light of ever increasing coastal populations. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  5. Polarimetry of extreme ultraviolet lines in solar astronomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fineschi, Silvano; Hoover, Richard B.; Fontenla, Juan M.; Walker, Arthur B. C., Jr.

    1991-01-01

    Ways are suggested in which recent advancements in the fabrication of ultrasmooth, low scatter flow-polished mirror substrates and high-quality multilayer and interference film coatings can be used to create novel optical instruments for observing linear-polarization effects in the outer solar atmosphere. Attention is given to the observational parameters of all-reflective FUV/EUV imaging polarimeters; such a coronagraph/polarimeter, operating at Ly-alpha, could yield the first measurements of coronal vector magnetic fields.

  6. Model design for predicting extreme precipitation event impacts on water quality in a water supply reservoir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagemann, M.; Jeznach, L. C.; Park, M. H.; Tobiason, J. E.

    2016-12-01

    Extreme precipitation events such as tropical storms and hurricanes are by their nature rare, yet have disproportionate and adverse effects on surface water quality. In the context of drinking water reservoirs, common concerns of such events include increased erosion and sediment transport and influx of natural organic matter and nutrients. As part of an effort to model the effects of an extreme precipitation event on water quality at the reservoir intake of a major municipal water system, this study sought to estimate extreme-event watershed responses including streamflow and exports of nutrients and organic matter for use as inputs to a 2-D hydrodynamic and water quality reservoir model. Since extreme-event watershed exports are highly uncertain, we characterized and propagated predictive uncertainty using a quasi-Monte Carlo approach to generate reservoir model inputs. Three storm precipitation depths—corresponding to recurrence intervals of 5, 50, and 100 years—were converted to streamflow in each of 9 tributaries by volumetrically scaling 2 storm hydrographs from the historical record. Rating-curve models for concentratoin, calibrated using 10 years of data for each of 5 constituents, were then used to estimate the parameters of a multivariate lognormal probability model of constituent concentrations, conditional on each scenario's storm date and streamflow. A quasi-random Halton sequence (n = 100) was drawn from the conditional distribution for each event scenario, and used to generate input files to a calibrated CE-QUAL-W2 reservoir model. The resulting simulated concentrations at the reservoir's drinking water intake constitute a low-discrepancy sample from the estimated uncertainty space of extreme-event source water-quality. Limiting factors to the suitability of this approach include poorly constrained relationships between hydrology and constituent concentrations, a high-dimensional space from which to generate inputs, and relatively long run

  7. Changes in Extreme Events: from GCM Output to Social, Economic and Ecological Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tebaldi, C.; Meehl, G. A.

    2006-12-01

    Extreme events can deeply affect social and natural systems. The current generation of global climate model is producing information that can be directly used to characterize future changes in extreme events, and through a further step their impacts, despite their still relatively coarse resolution. It is important to define extreme indicators consistently with what we expect GCM to be able to represent reliably. We use two examples from our work, heat waves and frost days, that well describe different aspects of the analysis of extremes from GCM output. Frost days are "mild extremes" and their definition and computation is straightforward. GCMs can represent them accurately and display a strong consistent signal of change. The impacts of these changes will be extremely relevant for ecosystems and agriculture. Heat waves do not have a standard definition. On the basis of historical episodes we isolate characteristics that were responsible for the worst effects on human health, for example, and analyze these characteristics in model simulations, validating the model's historical simulations. The changes in these characteristics can then be easily translated in expected differential impacts on public health. Work in progress goes in the direction of better characterization of "heat waves" taking into account jointly a set of variables like maximum and minimum temperatures and humidity, better addressing the biological vulnerabilities of the populations at risk.

  8. Forest operations, extreme flooding events, and considerations for hydrologic modeling in the Appalachians--A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    M.A. Eisenbies; W.M. Aust; J.A. Burger; M.B. Adams

    2007-01-01

    The connection between forests and water resources is well established, but the relationships among controlling factors are only partly understood. Concern over the effects of forestry operations, particularly harvesting, on extreme flooding events is a recurrent issue in forest and watershed management. Due to the complexity of the system, and the cost of installing...

  9. Ultimate design load analysis of planetary gearbox bearings under extreme events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gallego Calderon, Juan Felipe; Natarajan, Anand; Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio

    2017-01-01

    This paper investigates the impact of extreme events on the planet bearings of a 5 MW gearbox. The system is simulated using an aeroelastic tool, where the turbine structure is modeled, and MATLAB/Simulink, where the drivetrain (gearbox and generator) are modeled using a lumped-parameter approach...

  10. Impacts of Climate Change On The Occurrence of Extreme Events: The Mice Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palutikof, J. P.; Mice Team

    It is widely accepted that climate change due to global warming will have substan- tial impacts on the natural environment, and on human activities. Furthermore, it is increasingly recognized that changes in the severity and frequency of extreme events, such as windstorm and flood, are likely to be more important than changes in the average climate. The EU-funded project MICE (Modelling the Impacts of Climate Extremes) commenced in January 2002. It seeks to identify the likely changes in the occurrence of extremes of rainfall, temperature and windstorm due to global warm- ing, using information from climate models as a basis, and to study the impacts of these changes in selected European environments. The objectives are: a) to evaluate, by comparison with gridded and station observations, the ability of climate models to successfully reproduce the occurrence of extremes at the required spatial and temporal scales. b) to analyse model output with respect to future changes in the occurrence of extremes. Statistical analyses will determine changes in (i) the return periods of ex- tremes, (ii) the joint probability of extremes (combinations of damaging events such as windstorm followed by heavy rain), (iii) the sequential behaviour of extremes (whether events are well-separated or clustered) and (iv) the spatial patterns of extreme event occurrence across Europe. The range of uncertainty in model predictions will be ex- plored by analysing changes in model experiments with different spatial resolutions and forcing scenarios. c) to determine the impacts of the predicted changes in extremes occurrence on selected activity sectors: agriculture (Mediterranean drought), commer- cial forestry and natural forest ecosystems (windstorm and flood in northern Europe, fire in the Mediterranean), energy use (temperature extremes), tourism (heat stress and Mediterranean beach holidays, changes in the snow pack and winter sports ) and civil protection/insurance (windstorm and flood

  11. A SOLAR CORONAL JET EVENT TRIGGERS A CORONAL MASS EJECTION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Jiajia; Wang, Yuming; Shen, Chenglong; Liu, Kai; Pan, Zonghao; Wang, S. [CAS Key Laboratory of Geospace Environment, Earh and Space Science School, University of Science and Technology of China, No. 96, JinZhai Road, Hefei, Anhui 230026 (China)

    2015-11-10

    In this paper, we present multi-point, multi-wavelength observations and analysis of a solar coronal jet and coronal mass ejection (CME) event. Employing the GCS model, we obtained the real (three-dimensional) heliocentric distance and direction of the CME and found it to propagate at a high speed of over 1000 km s{sup −1}. The jet erupted before the CME and shared the same source region. The temporal and spacial relationship between these two events lead us to the possibility that the jet triggered the CME and became its core. This scenario hold the promise of enriching our understanding of the triggering mechanism of CMEs and their relations to coronal large-scale jets. On the other hand, the magnetic field configuration of the source region observed by the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/HMI instrument along with the off-limb inverse Y-shaped configuration observed by SDO/AIA in the 171 Å passband provide the first detailed observation of the three-dimensional reconnection process of a large-scale jet as simulated in Pariat et al. The eruption process of the jet highlights the importance of filament-like material during the eruption of not only small-scale X-ray jets, but likely also of large-scale EUV jets. Based on our observations and analysis, we propose the most probable mechanism for the whole event, with a blob structure overlaying the three-dimensional structure of the jet, to describe the interaction between the jet and the CME.

  12. A spatial and nonstationary model for the frequency of extreme rainfall events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan;

    2013-01-01

    Changes in the properties of extreme rainfall events have been observed worldwide. In relation to the discussion of ongoing climatic changes, it is of high importance to attribute these changes to known sources of climate variability. Focusing on spatial and temporal changes in the frequency...... of extreme rainfall events, a statistical model is tested for this purpose. The model is built on the theory of generalized linear models and uses Poisson regression solved by generalized estimation equations. Spatial and temporal explanatory variables can be included simultaneously, and their relative...... importance can be assessed. Additionally, the model allows for a spatial correlation between the measurements. Data from a Danish rain gauge network are used as a case study for model evaluation. Focusing on 10 min and 24 h rainfall extremes, it was found that regional variation in the mean annual...

  13. The Challenges from Extreme Climate Events for Sustainable Development in Amazonia: the Acre State Experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araújo, M. D. N. M.

    2015-12-01

    In the past ten years Acre State, located in Brazil´s southwestern Amazonia, has confronted sequential and severe extreme events in the form of droughts and floods. In particular, the droughts and forest fires of 2005 and 2010, the 2012 flood within Acre, the 2014 flood of the Madeira River which isolated Acre for two months from southern Brazil, and the most severe flooding throughout the state in 2015 shook the resilience of Acrean society. The accumulated costs of these events since 2005 have exceeded 300 million dollars. For the last 17 years, successive state administrations have been implementing a socio-environmental model of development that strives to link sustainable economic production with environmental conservation, particularly for small communities. In this context, extreme climate events have interfered significantly with this model, increasing the risks of failure. The impacts caused by these events on development in the state have been exacerbated by: a) limitations in monitoring; b) extreme events outside of Acre territory (Madeira River Flood) affecting transportation systems; c) absence of reliable information for decision-making; and d) bureaucratic and judicial impediments. Our experience in these events have led to the following needs for scientific input to reduce the risk of disasters: 1) better monitoring and forecasting of deforestation, fires, and hydro-meteorological variables; 2) ways to increase risk perception in communities; 3) approaches to involve more effectively local and regional populations in the response to disasters; 4) more accurate measurements of the economic and social damages caused by these disasters. We must improve adaptation to and mitigation of current and future extreme climate events and implement a robust civil defense, adequate to these new challenges.

  14. Effects of Solar Activities on the Transient Luminous Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Y.; Williams, E.; Chou, J.; Lee, L.; Huang, S.; Chang, S.; Chen, A. B.; Kuo, C.; Su, H.; Hsu, R.; Frey, H. U.; Takahashi, Y.; Lee, L.

    2013-12-01

    The Imager of Sprite and Upper Atmosphere Lightning (ISUAL) onboard the Formosat-2 was launched in May 2004; since then, it has continuously observed transient luminous events (TLEs) within the +/-60 degree of latitude for nearly 10 years. Due to ISUAL's long-term observations, the possible correlation between the TLE and the solar activity can be explored. Among the ISUAL TLEs, elves, which occur at the mesospheric altitude ~90 km and are caused by the heating incurred by the lightning-launched electromagnetic pulse of the lower ionosphere boundary are the most numerous and are the most suitable for this type of study. In previous studies, the elve distribution has proved to be a good surrogate for the lightning with exceptional peak current globally. ISUAL records the occurrence time and the height and location of elves, and the spectral emission intensities at six different band pass including the FUV N2 Lyman-Birge-Hopfield (LBH) band, which is a dominant emission in elves. The LBH intensity not only reflects the peak current of parent lightning, but may also represent the solar-activity-driven-lighting's perturbation to the ionosphere. In this study, we first examine whether the 11-year solar cycle affects the elve activity and altitude by analyzing the elve occurrence rates and heights in different latitudinal regions. To avoid the climatological and instrumental biases in the elve observations, the effects arising from the ENSO and moonlight must be carefully eliminated. Besides, we will discuss the elve variation in shorter time scale due to strong and sudden change of solar activity. Since the ion density of the mesosphere at mid-latitude may be significantly altered during/after a strong corona mass ejection (CME).Furthermore, it has been proven that the changes in the solar X-ray flux dominate the variations in the conductivity profile within the upper characteristic ELF layer (the 90-100km portion of the E-region). we will compare the variation of

  15. Food Security and Extreme Events: Evidence from Smallholder Farmers in Central America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saborio-Rodriguez, M.; Alpizar, F.; Harvey, C.; Martinez, R.; Vignola, R.; Viguera, B.; Capitan, T.

    2016-12-01

    Extreme weather events, which are expected to increase in magnitude and frequency due to climate change, are one of the main threats for smallholder farmers in Central America. Using a rich dataset from carefully selected subsistence farm households, we explore the determinants and severity of food insecurity resulting from extreme hydrometeorological hazards. In addition, we analyze farmerś coping strategies. Our analysis sheds light over food insecurity as an expression of vulnerability in a region that is expected to be increasingly exposed to extreme events and in a population already stressed by poverty and lack of opportunities. Regarding food insecurity, multivariate analyses indicate that education, having at least one migrant in the household, labor allocation, number of plots, and producing coffee are determinants of the probability of experiencing lack of food after an extreme weather event. Once the household is lacking food, the duration of the episode is related to access to credit, number of plots, producing coffee, ownership of land and gender of the head of the household. This results are in line with previous literature on the determinants of food insecurity in particular, and vulnerability, in general. Our dataset also allows us to analyze coping strategies. Households experiencing lack of food after an extreme weather event report mainly changes in their habits, as decreasing the amount of food consumed (54%) and modifying their diet (35%). A low proportion of household (between 10% and 15%, depending on the nature of the event) use their assets, by redirecting their savings, migrating, and selling items from the house. Asking money or food from family and friends or from an organization is reported for 4% of the households. This general results are connected to the specific coping strategies related to damages in crops, which are explored in detail. Our results indicate that there are patterns among the household experiencing lack of food

  16. Spatial and temporal analysis of extreme sea level and storm surge events around the coastline of the UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haigh, Ivan D; Wadey, Matthew P; Wahl, Thomas; Ozsoy, Ozgun; Nicholls, Robert J; Brown, Jennifer M; Horsburgh, Kevin; Gouldby, Ben

    2016-12-06

    In this paper we analyse the spatial footprint and temporal clustering of extreme sea level and skew surge events around the UK coast over the last 100 years (1915-2014). The vast majority of the extreme sea level events are generated by moderate, rather than extreme skew surges, combined with spring astronomical high tides. We distinguish four broad categories of spatial footprints of events and the distinct storm tracks that generated them. There have been rare events when extreme levels have occurred along two unconnected coastal regions during the same storm. The events that occur in closest succession (coastline. The spring/neap tidal cycle prevents successive extreme sea level events from happening within 4-8 days. Finally, the 2013/14 season was highly unusual in the context of the last 100 years from an extreme sea level perspective.

  17. Transformation of soil organics under extreme climate events: a project description

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blagodatskaya, Evgenia

    2017-04-01

    Recent climate scenarios predict not only continued global warming but also an increased frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events such as strong changes in temperature and precipitation with unusual regional dynamics. Weather anomalies at European territory of Russia are currently revealed as long-term drought and strong showers in summer and as an increased frequency of soil freezing-thawing cycles. Climate extremes totally change biogeochemical processes and elements cycling both at the ecosystem level and at the level of soil profile mainly affecting soil biota. Misbalance in these processes can cause a reduction of soil carbon stock and an increase of greenhouse gases emission. Our project aims to reveal the transformation mechanisms of soil organic matter caused by extreme weather events taking into consideration the role of biotic-abiotic interactions in regulation of formation, maintenance and turnover of soil carbon stock. Our research strategy is based on the novel concept considering extreme climatic events (showers after long-term droughts, soil flooding, freezing-thawing) as abiotic factors initiating a microbial succession. Study on stoichiometric flexibility of plants under climate extremes as well as on resulting response of soil heterotrophs on stoichiometric changes in substrate will be used for experimental prove and further development of the theory of ecological stoichiometry. The results enable us to reveal the mechanisms of biotic - abiotic interactions responsible for the balance between mobilization and stabilization of soil organic matter. Identified mechanisms will form the basis of an ecosystem model enabled to predict the effects of extreme climatic events on biogenic carbon cycle in the biosphere.

  18. Assessment of climate variations in temperature and precipitation extreme events over Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soltani, M.; Laux, P.; Kunstmann, H.; Stan, K.; Sohrabi, M. M.; Molanejad, M.; Sabziparvar, A. A.; Ranjbar SaadatAbadi, A.; Ranjbar, F.; Rousta, I.; Zawar-Reza, P.; Khoshakhlagh, F.; Soltanzadeh, I.; Babu, C. A.; Azizi, G. H.; Martin, M. V.

    2016-11-01

    In this study, changes in the spatial and temporal patterns of climate extreme indices were analyzed. Daily maximum and minimum air temperature, precipitation, and their association with climate change were used as the basis for tracking changes at 50 meteorological stations in Iran over the period 1975-2010. Sixteen indices of extreme temperature and 11 indices of extreme precipitation, which have been quality controlled and tested for homogeneity and missing data, are examined. Temperature extremes show a warming trend, with a large proportion of stations having statistically significant trends for all temperature indices. Over the last 15 years (1995-2010), the annual frequency of warm days and nights has increased by 12 and 14 days/decade, respectively. The number of cold days and nights has decreased by 4 and 3 days/decade, respectively. The annual mean maximum and minimum temperatures averaged across Iran both increased by 0.031 and 0.059 °C/decade. The probability of cold nights has gradually decreased from more than 20 % in 1975-1986 to less than 15 % in 1999-2010, whereas the mean frequency of warm days has increased abruptly between the first 12-year period (1975-1986) and the recent 12-year period (1999-2010) from 18 to 40 %, respectively. There are no systematic regional trends over the study period in total precipitation or in the frequency and duration of extreme precipitation events. Statistically significant trends in extreme precipitation events are observed at less than 15 % of all weather stations, with no spatially coherent pattern of change, whereas statistically significant changes in extreme temperature events have occurred at more than 85 % of all weather stations, forming strongly coherent spatial patterns.

  19. Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Hydrological Events in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashraf Vaghefi, Saeid; Abbaspour, Karim C.

    2016-04-01

    Estimating magnitude and occurrence frequency of extreme hydrological events is required for taking preventive remedial actions against the impact of climate change on the management of water resources. Examples include: characterization of extreme rainfall events to predict urban runoff, determination of river flows, and the likely severity of drought events during the design life of a water project. In recent years California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing water stress, economic loss, and an increase in wildfires. In this paper we describe development of a Climate Change Toolkit (CCT) and demonstrate its use in the analysis of dry and wet periods in California for the years 2020-2050 and compare the results with the historic period 1975-2005. CCT provides four modules to: i) manage big databases such as those of Global Climate Models (GCMs), ii) make bias correction using observed local climate data , iii) interpolate gridded climate data to finer resolution, and iv) calculate continuous dry- and wet-day periods based on rainfall, temperature, and soil moisture for analysis of drought and flooding risks. We used bias-corrected meteorological data of five GCMs for extreme CO2 emission scenario rcp8.5 for California to analyze the trend of extreme hydrological events. The findings indicate that frequency of dry period will increase in center and southern parts of California. The assessment of the number of wet days and the frequency of wet periods suggests an increased risk of flooding in north and north-western part of California, especially in the coastal strip. Keywords: Climate Change Toolkit (CCT), Extreme Hydrological Events, California

  20. Cyclones and extreme windstorm events over Europe under climate change: Global and regional climate model diagnostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leckebusch, G. C.; Ulbrich, U.

    2003-04-01

    More than any changes of the climate system mean state conditions, the development of extreme events may influence social, economic and legal aspects of our society. This linkage results from the impact of extreme climate events (natural hazards) on environmental systems which again are directly linked to human activities. Prominent examples from the recent past are the record breaking rainfall amounts of August 2002 in central Europe which produced widespread floodings or the wind storm Lothar of December 1999. Within the MICE (Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes) project framework an assessment of the impact of changes in extremes will be done. The investigation is carried out for several different impact categories as agriculture, energy use and property damage. Focus is laid on the diagnostics of GCM and RCM simulations under different climate change scenarios. In this study we concentrate on extreme windstorms and their relationship to cyclone activity in the global HADCM3 as well as in the regional HADRM3 model under two climate change scenarios (SRESA2a, B2a). In order to identify cyclones we used an objective algorithm from Murry and Simmonds which was widely tested under several different conditions. A slight increase in the occurrence of systems is identified above northern parts of central Europe for both scenarios. For more severe systems (core pressure wind events can be defined via different percentile values of the windspeed (e.g. above the 95 percentile). By this means the relationship between strong wind events and cyclones is also investigated. For several regions (e.g. Germany, France, Spain) a shift to more deep cyclones connected with an increasing number of strong wind events is found.

  1. Vulnerability assessment of Central-East Sardinia (Italy to extreme rainfall events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Bodini

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In Sardinia (Italy, the highest frequency of extreme events is recorded in the Central-East area (3–4 events per year. The presence of high and steep mountains near the sea on the central and south-eastern coast, causes an East-West precipitation gradient in autumn especially, due to hot and moist currents coming from Africa. Soil structure and utilization make this area highly vulnerable to flash flooding and landslides. The specific purpose of this work is to provide a description of the heavy rainfall phenomenon on a statistical basis. The analysis mainly focuses on i the existence of trends in heavy rainfall and ii the characterization of the distribution of extreme events. First, to study possible trends in extreme events a few indices have been analyzed by the linear regression test. The analysis has been carried out at annual and seasonal scales. Then, extreme values analysis has been carried out by fitting a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD to the data. As far as trends are concerned, different results are obtained at the two temporal scales: significant trends are obtained at the seasonal scale which are masked at the annual scale. By combining trend analysis and GPD analysis, the vulnerability of the study area to the occurrence of heavy rainfall has been characterized. Therefore, this work might support the improvement of land use planning and the application of suitable prevention systems. Future work will consider the extension of the analysis to all Sardinia and the application of statistical methods taking into account the spatial correlation of extreme events.

  2. Vulnerability assessment of Central-East Sardinia (Italy) to extreme rainfall events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodini, A.; Cossu, Q. A.

    2010-01-01

    In Sardinia (Italy), the highest frequency of extreme events is recorded in the Central-East area (3-4 events per year). The presence of high and steep mountains near the sea on the central and south-eastern coast, causes an East-West precipitation gradient in autumn especially, due to hot and moist currents coming from Africa. Soil structure and utilization make this area highly vulnerable to flash flooding and landslides. The specific purpose of this work is to provide a description of the heavy rainfall phenomenon on a statistical basis. The analysis mainly focuses on i) the existence of trends in heavy rainfall and ii) the characterization of the distribution of extreme events. First, to study possible trends in extreme events a few indices have been analyzed by the linear regression test. The analysis has been carried out at annual and seasonal scales. Then, extreme values analysis has been carried out by fitting a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) to the data. As far as trends are concerned, different results are obtained at the two temporal scales: significant trends are obtained at the seasonal scale which are masked at the annual scale. By combining trend analysis and GPD analysis, the vulnerability of the study area to the occurrence of heavy rainfall has been characterized. Therefore, this work might support the improvement of land use planning and the application of suitable prevention systems. Future work will consider the extension of the analysis to all Sardinia and the application of statistical methods taking into account the spatial correlation of extreme events.

  3. Subsurface signatures and timing of extreme wave events along the southeast Indian coast

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Rajesh R Nair; Madhav K Murari; C S Vijaya Lakshmi; Ilya Buynevich; Ron J Goble; P Srinivasan; S G N Murthy; Deshraj Trivedi; Suresh Chandra Kandpal; S M Hussain; D Sengupta; Ashok K Singhvi

    2011-10-01

    Written history’s limitation becomes apparent when attempting to document the predecessors of extreme coastal events in the Indian Ocean, from 550–700 years in Thailand and 1000 years in Indonesia. Detailed ground-penetrating radar (GPR) surveys in Mahabalipuram, southeast India, complemented with sedimentological analyses, magnetic susceptibility measurements, and optical dating provide strong evidence of extreme wave events during the past 3700 years. The diagnostic event signatures include the extent and elevation of the deposits, as well as morphologic similarity of buried erosional scarps to those reported in northern Sumatra region. Optical ages immediately overlying the imaged discontinuities that coincides with high concentration of heavy minerals date the erosional events to 340 ± 35, 350 ± 20, 490 ± 30, 880 ± 40, 1080 ± 60, 1175 ± 188, 2193 ± 266, 2235 ± 881, 2489 ± 293, 2450 ± 130, 2585 ± 609, 3710 ± 200 years ago. These evidences are crucial in reconstructing paleo extreme wave events and will pave the way for regional correlation of erosional horizons along the northern margin of Indian Ocean.

  4. Extreme dissipation event due to plume collision in a turbulent convection cell

    CERN Document Server

    Schumacher, Joerg

    2016-01-01

    An extreme dissipation event in the bulk of a closed three-dimensional turbulent convection cell is found to be correlated with a strong reduction of the large-scale circulation flow in the system that happens at the same time as a plume emission event from the bottom plate. The reduction in the large-scale circulation opens the possibility for a nearly frontal collision of down- and upwelling plumes and the generation of a high-amplitude thermal dissipation layer in the bulk. This collision is locally connected to a subsequent high-amplitude energy dissipation event in the form of a strong shear layer. Our analysis illustrates the impact of transitions in the large-scale structures on extreme events at the smallest scales of the turbulence, a direct link that is observed in a flow with boundary layers. We also show that detection of extreme dissipation events which determine the far-tail statistics of the dissipation fields in the bulk requires long-time integrations of the equations of motion over at least ...

  5. Sea extreme events during the last millennium in north-east of Morocco

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raji, O.; Dezileau, L.; Von Grafenstein, U.; Niazi, S.; Snoussi, M.; Martinez, P.

    2014-03-01

    The Moroccan Mediterranean coast is located in one of the most vulnerable area to extreme weather events or tsunami hazards. The objective of this research is to reconstruct the historical extreme submersion-events record using sea-induced deposits preserved in coastal lagoon. The Nador lagoon is the largest Moroccan lagoon (115 km2) located along the Western Mediterranean which presents a high cyclogenetic character and is exposed to tsunamis from Alboran Sea. The sandy barrier which separates the lagoon from the Mediterranean Sea is marked by many overwashes, which indicate how intensely has been exposed to the adverse sea events through history. Using the UWITEC coring platform, an undisturbed MC4.5 core (1.15 m long) was successfully sampled in the studied lagoon. To identify sea extreme events, a multi-proxy approach was applied combining sedimentogical and geochemical data. The preliminary results show that the identified paleo-events are concentrated over the last 500 years. The challenge that remains now is to distinguish between the tsunami and the storm deposits.

  6. Sea extreme events during the last millennium in north-east of Morocco

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Raji

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The Moroccan Mediterranean coast is located in one of the most vulnerable area to extreme weather events or tsunami hazards. The objective of this research is to reconstruct the historical extreme submersion-events record using sea-induced deposits preserved in coastal lagoon. The Nador lagoon is the largest Moroccan lagoon (115 km2 located along the Western Mediterranean which presents a high cyclogenetic character and is exposed to tsunamis from Alboran Sea. The sandy barrier which separates the lagoon from the Mediterranean Sea is marked by many overwashes, which indicate how intensely has been exposed to the adverse sea events through history. Using the UWITEC coring platform, an undisturbed MC4.5 core (1.15 m long was successfully sampled in the studied lagoon. To identify sea extreme events, a multi-proxy approach was applied combining sedimentogical and geochemical data. The preliminary results show that the identified paleo-events are concentrated over the last 500 years. The challenge that remains now is to distinguish between the tsunami and the storm deposits.

  7. Extreme dissipation event due to plume collision in a turbulent convection cell

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schumacher, Jörg; Scheel, Janet D.

    2016-10-01

    An extreme dissipation event in the bulk of a closed three-dimensional turbulent convection cell is found to be correlated with a strong reduction of the large-scale circulation flow in the system that happens at the same time as a plume emission event from the bottom plate. The reduction in the large-scale circulation opens the possibility for a nearly frontal collision of down- and upwelling plumes and the generation of a high-amplitude thermal dissipation layer in the bulk. This collision is locally connected to a subsequent high-amplitude energy dissipation event in the form of a strong shear layer. Our analysis illustrates the impact of transitions in the large-scale structures on extreme events at the smallest scales of the turbulence, a direct link that is observed in a flow with boundary layers. We also show that detection of extreme dissipation events which determine the far-tail statistics of the dissipation fields in the bulk requires long-time integrations of the equations of motion over at least a hundred convective time units.

  8. Extreme Rainfall Events and Associated Natural Hazards in Alaknanda Valley, Indian Himalayan Region

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JOSHI Varun; KUMAR Kireet

    2006-01-01

    Entire Himalayan region is vulnerable to rain-induced (torrential rainfall) hazards in the form of flash flood, cloudburst or glacial lake outburst flood. Flash floods and cloudburst are generally caused by high intensity rainfall followed by debris flow or landslide often resulting into blockade of river channels. The examples of some major disasters caused by torrential rainfall events in last fifty years are the flash floods of 1968 in Teesta valley, in 1993 and 20o0 in Sntlej valley, in 1978 in Bhagirathi and in 197o in Alaknanda river valleys. The formation of landslide dams and subsequent breaching is also associated with such rainfall events. These dams may persist for years or may burst within a short span of its formation. Due to sudden surge of water level in the river valleys, havoc and panic are created in the down stream. In Alaknanda valley, frequencies of such extreme rainfall events are found to be increasing in last two decades. However, the monthly trend of extreme rainfall events has partly indicated this increase. In most of the years extreme rainfall events and cloudburst disaster were reported in August during the later part of the monsoon season.

  9. Large Scale Influences on Drought and Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collow, A.; Bosilovich, M. G.; Koster, R. D.; Eichmann, A.

    2015-12-01

    Observations indicate that extreme weather events are increasing and it is likely that this trend will continue through the 21st century. However, there is uncertainty and disagreement in recent literature regarding the mechanisms by which extreme temperature and precipitation events are increasing, including the suggestion that enhanced Arctic warming has resulted in an increase in blocking events and a more meridional flow. A steady gradual increase in heavy precipitation events has been observed in the Midwestern and Northeastern United States, while the Southwestern United States, particularly California, has experienced suppressed precipitation and an increase in consecutive dry days over the past few years. The frequency, intensity, and duration of heavy precipitation events in the Midwestern United States and Northeastern United States, as well as drought in the Southwestern United States are examined using the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version-2 (MERRA-2). Indices developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices representing drought and heavy precipitation events have been calculated using the MERRA-2 dataset for the period of 1980 through 2014. Trends in these indices are analyzed and the indices are compared to large scale circulations and climate modes using a composite and statistical linkages approach. Statistically significant correlations are present in the summer months between heavy precipitation events and meridional flow despite the lack of enhanced Arctic warming, contradicting the suggested mechanisms. Weaker, though still significant, correlations are observed in the winter months when the Arctic is warming more rapidly than the Midlatitudes.

  10. STATISTICAL STUDY OF STRONG AND EXTREME GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES AND SOLAR CYCLE CHARACTERISTICS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kilpua, E. K. J. [Department of Physics, University Helsinki (Finland); Olspert, N.; Grigorievskiy, A.; Käpylä, M. J.; Tanskanen, E. I.; Pelt, J. [ReSoLVE Centre of Excellence, Department of Computer Science, P.O. Box 15400, FI-00076 Aalto Univeristy (Finland); Miyahara, H. [Musashino Art University, 1-736 Ogawa-cho, Kodaira-shi, Tokyo 187-8505 (Japan); Kataoka, R. [National Institute of Polar Research, 10-3 Midori-cho, Tachikawa, Tokyo 190-8518 (Japan); Liu, Y. D. [State Key Laboratory of Space Weather, National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China)

    2015-06-20

    We study the relation between strong and extreme geomagnetic storms and solar cycle characteristics. The analysis uses an extensive geomagnetic index AA data set spanning over 150 yr complemented by the Kakioka magnetometer recordings. We apply Pearson correlation statistics and estimate the significance of the correlation with a bootstrapping technique. We show that the correlation between the storm occurrence and the strength of the solar cycle decreases from a clear positive correlation with increasing storm magnitude toward a negligible relationship. Hence, the quieter Sun can also launch superstorms that may lead to significant societal and economic impact. Our results show that while weaker storms occur most frequently in the declining phase, the stronger storms have the tendency to occur near solar maximum. Our analysis suggests that the most extreme solar eruptions do not have a direct connection between the solar large-scale dynamo-generated magnetic field, but are rather associated with smaller-scale dynamo and resulting turbulent magnetic fields. The phase distributions of sunspots and storms becoming increasingly in phase with increasing storm strength, on the other hand, may indicate that the extreme storms are related to the toroidal component of the solar large-scale field.

  11. Light trapping in solar cells at the extreme coupling limit

    CERN Document Server

    Naqavi, Ali; Battaglia, Corsin; Herzig, Hans Peter; Ballif, Christophe

    2012-01-01

    We calculate the maximal absorption enhancement obtainable by guided mode excitation in a weakly absorbing dielectric slab over wide wavelength ranges. The slab mimics thin film silicon solar cells in the low absorption regime. We consider simultaneously wavelength-scale periodicity of the texture, small thickness of the film, modal properties of the guided waves and their confinement to the film. Also we investigate the effect of the incident angle on the absorption enhancement. Our calculations provide tighter bounds for the absorption enhancement but still significant improvement is possible. Our explanation of the absorption enhancement can help better exploitation of the guided modes in thin film devices.

  12. Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Brage B.; Isaksen, Ketil; Benestad, Rasmus E.; Kohler, Jack; Pedersen, Åshild Ø.; Loe, Leif E.; Coulson, Stephen J.; Larsen, Jan Otto; Varpe, Øystein

    2014-11-01

    One predicted consequence of global warming is an increased frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, or heavy rainfalls. In parts of the Arctic, extreme warm spells and heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) events in winter are already more frequent. How these weather events impact snow-pack and permafrost characteristics is rarely documented empirically, and the implications for wildlife and society are hence far from understood. Here we characterize and document the effects of an extreme warm spell and ROS event that occurred in High Arctic Svalbard in January-February 2012, during the polar night. In this normally cold semi-desert environment, we recorded above-zero temperatures (up to 7 °C) across the entire archipelago and record-breaking precipitation, with up to 98 mm rainfall in one day (return period of >500 years prior to this event) and 272 mm over the two-week long warm spell. These precipitation amounts are equivalent to 25 and 70% respectively of the mean annual total precipitation. The extreme event caused significant increase in permafrost temperatures down to at least 5 m depth, induced slush avalanches with resultant damage to infrastructure, and left a significant ground-ice cover (˜5-20 cm thick basal ice). The ground-ice not only affected inhabitants by closing roads and airports as well as reducing mobility and thereby tourism income, but it also led to high starvation-induced mortality in all monitored populations of the wild reindeer by blocking access to the winter food source. Based on empirical-statistical downscaling of global climate models run under the moderate RCP4.5 emission scenario, we predict strong future warming with average mid-winter temperatures even approaching 0 °C, suggesting increased frequency of ROS. This will have far-reaching implications for Arctic ecosystems and societies through the changes in snow-pack and permafrost properties.

  13. Terrestrial Laser Scanner (TLS) as a tool for the reconstruction of extreme wave event characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Bastian; Hoffmann, Gösta

    2017-04-01

    The shores of the Northern Indian Ocean were exposed to extreme wave inundation in the past. Two relevant hazards, storm surges triggered by tropical cyclones and tsunamis, are known to occur in the region but are rarely instrumentally recorded. Various sediment deposits along the coast are the only remnants of those past events. A profound understanding of return periods and magnitudes of past events is essential for developing land-use planning and risk mitigation measures in Oman and neighboring countries. A detailed investigation of these deposits, in this case primarily blocks and boulder trains but also fine grained sediments, provides insight on parameters such as wave height and inundation distance. These parameters can then be used for modeling inundation scenarios superimposed on modern infrastructure. We are investigating the spatial 3D-distribution of the extreme wave event sediments along the coastline through a high-precision survey of the event deposits using a Faro Focus 3D X330 TLS. A TLS is capable of recording high-detail and colored point clouds, which allows detailed measurements and has proved to be a powerful tool in geosciences. These multi-parameter point clouds in combination with dating results serve as a base for extreme wave event return period and magnitude estimations. Relevant parameters on large sediments are size, shape, volume, mass as well as relative arrangement, sorting and orientation. Furthermore, the TLS data is used to distinguish between the various boulder lithologies using a multi-scale supervised classification. Surface roughness as a result of weathering can serve as an indicator for exposure time of boulders and hint on various generations of extreme wave events. The distribution of the boulders relative to the site they were quarried from indicates on the flow direction of the waves and consequently might help to distinguish between storm and tsunami waves.

  14. Extremely high reflection of solar wind protons as neutral hydrogen atoms from regolith in space

    CERN Document Server

    Wieser, Martin; Futaana, Yoshifumi; Holmström, Mats; Bhardwaj, Anil; Sridharan, R; Dhanya, MB; Wurz, Peter; Schaufelberger, Audrey; Asamura, Kazushi; 10.1016/j.pss.2009.09.012

    2010-01-01

    We report on measurements of extremely high reflection rates of solar wind particles from regolith-covered lunar surfaces. Measurements by the Sub-keV Atom Reflecting Analyzer (SARA) instrument on the Indian Chandrayaan-1 spacecraft in orbit around the Moon show that up to 20% of the impinging solar wind protons are reflected from the lunar surface back to space as neutral hydrogen atoms. This finding, generally applicable to regolith-covered atmosphereless bodies, invalidates the widely accepted assumption that regolith almost completely absorbs the impinging solar wind.

  15. AP1000{sup R} design robustness against extreme external events - Seismic, flooding, and aircraft crash

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pfister, A.; Goossen, C.; Coogler, K.; Gorgemans, J. [Westinghouse Electric Company LLC, 1000 Westinghouse Drive, Cranberry Township, PA 16066 (United States)

    2012-07-01

    Both the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) require existing and new nuclear power plants to conduct plant assessments to demonstrate the unit's ability to withstand external hazards. The events that occurred at the Fukushima-Dai-ichi nuclear power station demonstrated the importance of designing a nuclear power plant with the ability to protect the plant against extreme external hazards. The innovative design of the AP1000{sup R} nuclear power plant provides unparalleled protection against catastrophic external events which can lead to extensive infrastructure damage and place the plant in an extended abnormal situation. The AP1000 plant is an 1100-MWe pressurized water reactor with passive safety features and extensive plant simplifications that enhance construction, operation, maintenance and safety. The plant's compact safety related footprint and protection provided by its robust nuclear island structures prevent significant damage to systems, structures, and components required to safely shutdown the plant and maintain core and spent fuel pool cooling and containment integrity following extreme external events. The AP1000 nuclear power plant has been extensively analyzed and reviewed to demonstrate that it's nuclear island design and plant layout provide protection against both design basis and extreme beyond design basis external hazards such as extreme seismic events, external flooding that exceeds the maximum probable flood limit, and malicious aircraft impact. The AP1000 nuclear power plant uses fail safe passive features to mitigate design basis accidents. The passive safety systems are designed to function without safety-grade support systems (such as AC power, component cooling water, service water, compressed air or HVAC). The plant has been designed to protect systems, structures, and components critical to placing the reactor in a safe shutdown condition within the steel

  16. Observations of ozone depletion associated with solar proton events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcpeters, R. D.; Jackman, C. H.; Stassinopoulos, E. G.

    1981-01-01

    Ozone profiles from the solar proton events (SPE) of January and September 1971 and August 1972 were obtained after the backscattered ultraviolet (BUV) measured radiances were corrected for the direct effects of protons on the instrument. The SPE of August 1972 produced an ozone depletion of 15% at 42 km that persisted for one month in both northern and southern polar regions. This long recovery time indicates that NO(x) was produced in a quantity sufficient to alter the ozone chemistry. The two SPE in 1971 were of moderate size, but produced ozone depletions of 10-30% at 50 km with a 36 hour recovery time. This rapid recovery is consistent with the assumption that HO(x) is responsible for altering the ozone chemistry (Weeks et al., 1972). The magnitude of the observed depletion, however, exceeds that predicted by the chemical models.

  17. Cutoff latitude variation during solar proton events: Causes and consequences

    CERN Document Server

    Tyssøy, H Nesse

    2016-01-01

    To accurately quantify the effect of solar proton events (SPEs) on the atmosphere requires a good estimate of the particle energy deposition in the middle atmosphere (60- 100 km) and how the energy is distributed globally. Protons in the energy range 1-20MeV, depositing their energy in the middle atmosphere, are subject to more complex dynamics with strong day-night asymmetries compared to higher-energy particles. Our study targets six SPEs from 2003 to 2012. By using measurements from the Medium Energy Proton and Electron Detector on all available Polar Orbit Environment Satellites (POES), we show that in the main phase of geomagnetic storms the dayside cutoff latitudes are pushed poleward, while the nightside cutoff latitudes have the opposite response, resulting in strong day-night asymmetries in the energy deposition. These features cannot bemeasured by the frequently used Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES). Assuming that the protons impact the polar atmosphere homogeneously above a...

  18. CME on March 16, 2001, electron pulsation event and solar-terrestrial phenomena related with CMEs

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张桂清

    2002-01-01

    The electron pulsation event is defined in the paper. Firstly, a slow Halo CME on March 16, 2001 that led to low-energetic solar proton event, electron pulsation event and major geomagnetic storm was analyzed. And then, dozens of events are collected. The interrelations among the solar flare, CME, solar proton event, electron pulsation event and geomagnetic storm are studied. The results show that: (ⅰ) Solar proton events can be regarded as the indication that CMEs get to the earth and the electron pulsation events can be regarded as the indication of solar proton flux. (ⅱ) Not only can fast CMEs strongly influence the earth, but also slow CMEs can influence the earth, and its influences are more frequent and cannot be neglected. (ⅲ) Most of high-energetic solar proton events with E≥10 MeV can lead to geomagnetic storms, but most of the medium and weak geomagnetic storms result from low-energetic solar proton events that are caused by CMEs. (ⅳ) Both the electron pulsation events and geomagnetic storms are the link effects of high- and low-energetic solar proton events, but the occurrence of electron pulsation event are generally prior to the geomagnetic storm. So in the circumstance where the near real-time observing data of the low-energetic solar proton event cannot be obtained, we can regard electron pulsation event as the indication of the low-energetic solar proton flux reaching the earth, which can be used as one of the important 参考文献 of short-term prediction and alert of the geomagnetic storm.

  19. CME on March 16, 2001, electron pulsation event and solar-terrestrial phenomena related with CMEs

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG; Guiqing(张桂清)

    2002-01-01

    The electron pulsation event is defined in the paper. Firstly, a slow Halo CME on March 16, 2001 that led to low-energetic solar proton event, electron pulsation event and major geomagnetic storm was analyzed. And then, dozens of events are collected. The interrelations among the solar flare, CME, solar proton event, electron pulsation event and geomagnetic storm are studied. The results show that: (ⅰ) Solar proton events can be regarded as the indication that CMEs get to the earth and the electron pulsation events can be regarded as the indication of solar proton flux. (ⅱ) Not only can fast CMEs strongly influence the earth, but also slow CMEs can influence the earth, and its influences are more frequent and cannot be neglected. (ⅲ) Most of high-energetic solar proton events with E≥10 MeV can lead to geomagnetic storms, but most of the medium and weak geomagnetic storms result from low-energetic solar proton events that are caused by CMEs. (ⅳ) Both the electron pulsation events and geomagnetic storms are the link effects of high- and low-energetic solar proton events, but the occurrence of electron pulsation event are generally prior to the geomagnetic storm. So in the circumstance where the near real-time observing data of the low-energetic solar proton event cannot be obtained, we can regard electron pulsation event as the indication of the low-energetic solar proton flux reaching the earth, which can be used as one of the important 参考文献 of short-term prediction and alert of the geomagnetic storm.

  20. Antarctic climate change: extreme events disrupt plastic phenotypic response in Adelie penguins.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amélie Lescroël

    Full Text Available In the context of predicted alteration of sea ice cover and increased frequency of extreme events, it is especially timely to investigate plasticity within Antarctic species responding to a key environmental aspect of their ecology: sea ice variability. Using 13 years of longitudinal data, we investigated the effect of sea ice concentration (SIC on the foraging efficiency of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae breeding in the Ross Sea. A 'natural experiment' brought by the exceptional presence of giant icebergs during 5 consecutive years provided unprecedented habitat variation for testing the effects of extreme events on the relationship between SIC and foraging efficiency in this sea-ice dependent species. Significant levels of phenotypic plasticity were evident in response to changes in SIC in normal environmental conditions. Maximum foraging efficiency occurred at relatively low SIC, peaking at 6.1% and decreasing with higher SIC. The 'natural experiment' uncoupled efficiency levels from SIC variations. Our study suggests that lower summer SIC than currently observed would benefit the foraging performance of Adélie penguins in their southernmost breeding area. Importantly, it also provides evidence that extreme climatic events can disrupt response plasticity in a wild seabird population. This questions the predictive power of relationships built on past observations, when not only the average climatic conditions are changing but the frequency of extreme climatic anomalies is also on the rise.

  1. Antarctic climate change: extreme events disrupt plastic phenotypic response in Adélie penguins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lescroël, Amélie; Ballard, Grant; Grémillet, David; Authier, Matthieu; Ainley, David G

    2014-01-01

    In the context of predicted alteration of sea ice cover and increased frequency of extreme events, it is especially timely to investigate plasticity within Antarctic species responding to a key environmental aspect of their ecology: sea ice variability. Using 13 years of longitudinal data, we investigated the effect of sea ice concentration (SIC) on the foraging efficiency of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) breeding in the Ross Sea. A 'natural experiment' brought by the exceptional presence of giant icebergs during 5 consecutive years provided unprecedented habitat variation for testing the effects of extreme events on the relationship between SIC and foraging efficiency in this sea-ice dependent species. Significant levels of phenotypic plasticity were evident in response to changes in SIC in normal environmental conditions. Maximum foraging efficiency occurred at relatively low SIC, peaking at 6.1% and decreasing with higher SIC. The 'natural experiment' uncoupled efficiency levels from SIC variations. Our study suggests that lower summer SIC than currently observed would benefit the foraging performance of Adélie penguins in their southernmost breeding area. Importantly, it also provides evidence that extreme climatic events can disrupt response plasticity in a wild seabird population. This questions the predictive power of relationships built on past observations, when not only the average climatic conditions are changing but the frequency of extreme climatic anomalies is also on the rise.

  2. Establishing a Numerical Modeling Framework for Hydrologic Engineering Analyses of Extreme Storm Events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Xiaodong; Hossain, Faisal; Leung, L. Ruby

    2017-08-01

    In this study a numerical modeling framework for simulating extreme storm events was established using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Such a framework is necessary for the derivation of engineering parameters such as probable maximum precipitation that are the cornerstone of large water management infrastructure design. Here this framework was built based on a heavy storm that occurred in Nashville (USA) in 2010, and verified using two other extreme storms. To achieve the optimal setup, several combinations of model resolutions, initial/boundary conditions (IC/BC), cloud microphysics and cumulus parameterization schemes were evaluated using multiple metrics of precipitation characteristics. The evaluation suggests that WRF is most sensitive to IC/BC option. Simulation generally benefits from finer resolutions up to 5 km. At the 15km level, NCEP2 IC/BC produces better results, while NAM IC/BC performs best at the 5km level. Recommended model configuration from this study is: NAM or NCEP2 IC/BC (depending on data availability), 15km or 15km-5km nested grids, Morrison microphysics and Kain-Fritsch cumulus schemes. Validation of the optimal framework suggests that these options are good starting choices for modeling extreme events similar to the test cases. This optimal framework is proposed in response to emerging engineering demands of extreme storm events forecasting and analyses for design, operations and risk assessment of large water infrastructures.

  3. The Definition and Classification of Extensive and Persistent Extreme Cold Events in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    PENG Jing-Bei; BUEH Cholaw

    2011-01-01

    Using the observed daily temperatures from 756 stations in China during the period from 1951 to 2009, extensive and persistent extreme cold events (EPECEs) were defined according to the following three steps: 1) a station was defined as an extreme cold station (ECS) if the observed temperature was lower than its 10th percentile threshold; 2) an extensive extreme cold event was determined to be present if the approximated area occupied by the ECSs was more than 10% of the total area of China (83rd percentile) on its starting day and the maximum area occupied by the ECSs was at least 20% of the total area of China (96th percentile); and 3) an EPECE was determined to be present if the extensive extreme cold event lasted for at least for eight days. 52 EPECEs were identified in this manner, and these identification results were also verified using other reliable data. On the basis of cluster analysis, five types of EPECEs were classified according to the spatial distribution of ECSs at their most extensive time over the course of the EPECE.

  4. Urban-Induced Mechanisms for an Extreme Rainfall Event in Beijing China: A Satellite Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Menglin S. Jin

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Using 1 km satellite remote sensing observations, this paper examines the clouds, aerosols, water vapor and surface skin temperature over Beijing to understand the possible urban system contributions to the extreme rainfall event on 21 July 2012 (i.e., 721 event. Remote sensing measurements, with the advantage of high spatial resolution and coverage, reveal three key urban-related mechanisms: (a the urban heat island effect (UHI resulted in strong surface convection and high level cloud cover over Beijing; (b urban aerosol amount peaked before the rainfall, which “seeded” the clouds and invigorated precipitation; and (c urban tall buildings provided additional lift for the air mass and provided heat at the underlying boundary to keep the rainfall system alive for a long duration precipitation (>10 hours. With the existing rainfall system moving from the northwest and abundant water vapor was transported from the southeast into Beijing, the urban canyon-lifting, aerosol, and UHI effects all enhanced this extreme rainfall event. This work proves that urban system is responsible, at least partly, for urban rainfall extremes and thus should be considered for urban extreme rainfall prediction in the future.

  5. Detection and Attribution of Simulated Climatic Extreme Events and Impacts: High Sensitivity to Bias Correction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sippel, S.; Otto, F. E. L.; Forkel, M.; Allen, M. R.; Guillod, B. P.; Heimann, M.; Reichstein, M.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Kirsten, T.; Mahecha, M. D.

    2015-12-01

    Understanding, quantifying and attributing the impacts of climatic extreme events and variability is crucial for societal adaptation in a changing climate. However, climate model simulations generated for this purpose typically exhibit pronounced biases in their output that hinders any straightforward assessment of impacts. To overcome this issue, various bias correction strategies are routinely used to alleviate climate model deficiencies most of which have been criticized for physical inconsistency and the non-preservation of the multivariate correlation structure. We assess how biases and their correction affect the quantification and attribution of simulated extremes and variability in i) climatological variables and ii) impacts on ecosystem functioning as simulated by a terrestrial biosphere model. Our study demonstrates that assessments of simulated climatic extreme events and impacts in the terrestrial biosphere are highly sensitive to bias correction schemes with major implications for the detection and attribution of these events. We introduce a novel ensemble-based resampling scheme based on a large regional climate model ensemble generated by the distributed weather@home setup[1], which fully preserves the physical consistency and multivariate correlation structure of the model output. We use extreme value statistics to show that this procedure considerably improves the representation of climatic extremes and variability. Subsequently, biosphere-atmosphere carbon fluxes are simulated using a terrestrial ecosystem model (LPJ-GSI) to further demonstrate the sensitivity of ecosystem impacts to the methodology of bias correcting climate model output. We find that uncertainties arising from bias correction schemes are comparable in magnitude to model structural and parameter uncertainties. The present study consists of a first attempt to alleviate climate model biases in a physically consistent way and demonstrates that this yields improved simulations of

  6. Soft X-ray irradiance measured by the Solar Aspect Monitor on the Solar Dynamic Observatory Extreme ultraviolet Variability Experiment

    CERN Document Server

    Lin, C Y; Jones, A; Woodraska, D; Caspi, A; Woods, T N; Eparvier, F G; Wieman, S R; Didkovsky, L V

    2016-01-01

    The Solar Aspect Monitor (SAM) is a pinhole camera on the Extreme-ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE) aboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). SAM projects the solar disk onto the CCD through a metallic filter designed to allow only solar photons shortward of 7 nm to pass. Contamination from energetic particles and out-of-band irradiance is, however, significant in the SAM observations. We present a technique for isolating the 0.01--7 nm integrated irradiance from the SAM signal to produce the first results of broadband irradiance for the time period from May 2010 to May 2014. The results of this analysis agree with a similar data product from EVE's EUV SpectroPhotometer (ESP) to within 25%. We compare our results with measurements from the Student Nitric Oxide Explorer (SNOE) Solar X-ray Photometer (SXP) and the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) Solar EUV Experiment (SEE) at similar levels of solar activity. We show that the full-disk SAM broadband results compare we...

  7. Nitrogen accumulation and partitioning in a High Arctic tundra ecosystem from extreme atmospheric N deposition events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choudhary, Sonal; Blaud, Aimeric; Osborn, A Mark; Press, Malcolm C; Phoenix, Gareth K

    2016-06-01

    Arctic ecosystems are threatened by pollution from recently detected extreme atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition events in which up to 90% of the annual N deposition can occur in just a few days. We undertook the first assessment of the fate of N from extreme deposition in High Arctic tundra and are presenting the results from the whole ecosystem (15)N labelling experiment. In 2010, we simulated N depositions at rates of 0, 0.04, 0.4 and 1.2 g Nm(-2)yr(-1), applied as (15)NH4(15)NO3 in Svalbard (79(°)N), during the summer. Separate applications of (15)NO3(-) and (15)NH4(+) were also made to determine the importance of N form in their retention. More than 95% of the total (15)N applied was recovered after one growing season (~90% after two), demonstrating a considerable capacity of Arctic tundra to retain N from these deposition events. Important sinks for the deposited N, regardless of its application rate or form, were non-vascular plants>vascular plants>organic soil>litter>mineral soil, suggesting that non-vascular plants could be the primary component of this ecosystem to undergo measurable changes due to N enrichment from extreme deposition events. Substantial retention of N by soil microbial biomass (70% and 39% of (15)N in organic and mineral horizon, respectively) during the initial partitioning demonstrated their capacity to act as effective buffers for N leaching. Between the two N forms, vascular plants (Salix polaris) in particular showed difference in their N recovery, incorporating four times greater (15)NO3(-) than (15)NH4(+), suggesting deposition rich in nitrate will impact them more. Overall, these findings show that despite the deposition rates being extreme in statistical terms, biologically they do not exceed the capacity of tundra to sequester pollutant N during the growing season. Therefore, current and future extreme events may represent a major source of eutrophication.

  8. A mechanism for decadal variations in the frequency of extreme El Niño events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, G.; Cai, W.

    2015-12-01

    The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the largest source of Earth's climate variability on interannual time scales, has massive impacts on extreme weathers, agriculture and ecosystems, particularly during extreme El Niño events, such as the 1982/83 and 1997/98 episodes. However, the associated mechanism is not fully understood, hindering their forecasts, as attested by the false alarm of an extreme El Niño in 2014 predicted by many models. Recent studies have identified additional precursors beyond westerly wind anomalies and oceanic heat content along the equatorial Pacific, including the southwest Pacific southerly jets, which tend to occur strongly and concurrently with equatorial westerly anomalies during extreme El Niño, but NOT during weak El Niño events. Here we show that the concurrences of southwest Pacific southerlies, anomalous equatorial westerlies, and their relationship, are modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)/Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), even on daily timescales. During a positive phase of the PDO/IPO, occurrences of westerly wind events (WWEs), in the region between the Maritime continent and the eastern Pacific Ocean, are reinforced by the southwest Pacific southerly surges (SPSSs) in austral winter. By contrast, during a negative phase of the PDO/IPO, such SPSSs are not reinforcing WWEs; instead stronger SPSSs are associated with weaker WWEs. This interdecadal contrast in the relationship between SPSSs and WWEs contributes to the decadal variations in the frequency of extreme El Niño events. The associated mechanism will be discussed.

  9. Impacts of extreme winter warming events on plant physiology in a sub-Arctic heath community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bokhorst, Stef; Bjerke, Jarle W; Davey, Matthew P; Taulavuori, Kari; Taulavuori, Erja; Laine, Kari; Callaghan, Terry V; Phoenix, Gareth K

    2010-10-01

    Insulation provided by snow cover and tolerance of freezing by physiological acclimation allows Arctic plants to survive cold winter temperatures. However, both the protection mechanisms may be lost with winter climate change, especially during extreme winter warming events where loss of snow cover from snow melt results in exposure of plants to warm temperatures and then returning extreme cold in the absence of insulating snow. These events cause considerable damage to Arctic plants, but physiological responses behind such damage remain unknown. Here, we report simulations of extreme winter warming events using infrared heating lamps and soil warming cables in a sub-Arctic heathland. During these events, we measured maximum quantum yield of photosystem II (PSII), photosynthesis, respiration, bud swelling and associated bud carbohydrate changes and lipid peroxidation to identify physiological responses during and after the winter warming events in three dwarf shrub species: Empetrum hermaphroditum, Vaccinium vitis-idaea and Vaccinium myrtillus. Winter warming increased maximum quantum yield of PSII, and photosynthesis was initiated for E. hermaphroditum and V. vitis-idaea. Bud swelling, bud carbohydrate decreases and lipid peroxidation were largest for E. hermaphroditum, whereas V. myrtillus and V. vitis-idaea showed no or less strong responses. Increased physiological activity and bud swelling suggest that sub-Arctic plants can initiate spring-like development in response to a short winter warming event. Lipid peroxidation suggests that plants experience increased winter stress. The observed differences between species in physiological responses are broadly consistent with interspecific differences in damage seen in previous studies, with E. hermaphroditum and V. myrtillus tending to be most sensitive. This suggests that initiation of spring-like development may be a major driver in the damage caused by winter warming events that are predicted to become more

  10. The impacts of '05.6' extreme flood event on riverine carbon fluxes in Xijiang River

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUN HuiGuo; HAN JingTai; ZHANG ShuRong; LU XiXi

    2007-01-01

    An extreme flood event with a frequency of nearly 200 year occurred in June of 2005 in the Xijiang River,the main trunk stream of the Zhujiang River. Samples were systematically collected during the flood event, and water quality parameters, including total suspended sediment (TSS), dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and particulate organic carbon (POC) were analyzed,and riverine carbon concentrations associated with its changing pattern through the flood process were discussed. These parameters reflect the changes in basin surface flow and subsurface flow during the flood. This flood event influenced annual flux estimations of POC, DOC, and DIC to great extents.Based on carbon flux estimations for the year 2005 and the flood event (June 21-28) in the Xijiang River, it was found that DIC, DOC, and POC fluxes during '05.6' flood event are 1.52x106 g.km-2.a-1,0.24x106 g.km-2.a-1, and 0.54x106 g.km-2.a-1, and account for 14.87%, 24.75% and 44.89% of the annual fluxes in 2005, respectively. The results suggested that carbon exports during extreme flood events had great contributions to the total carbon fluxes and composition of various carbon components, being important for accurate estimates of annual carbon fluxes in rivers with frequent floods.

  11. 'The plunger hypothesis' - predicting the tropospheric impact of extreme stratospheric events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Simon; Baldwin, Mark; Stephenson, David

    2016-04-01

    The coupling of events in the polar stratosphere to those in the polar troposphere is not currently understood. Extreme events in the stratosphere have been identified to have a lasting influence on the tropospheric circulation below for a period of up to 60 days. As such understanding the downward propagation of stratospheric circulation anomalies would be beneficial to surface forecasting. In this work we use the new 'plunger hypothesis', that mass fluxes into and out of the polar region compress the polar column of air - in a manner similar to a plunger - and cause pressure and temperature anomalies. We demonstrate how a quasigeostrophic assumption within this hypothesis allows for the prediction of mass fluxes across the boundary to the polar region given the pressure distribution at the boundary. This then allows for a prediction of how a given stratospheric event such as a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) or a strong vortex event influences the polar troposphere. The performance of this hypothesis is tested; its usefulness in improving surface forecasts, its accuracy in response to stratospheric events, and its ability to predict downward propagation of Arctic Oscillation (AO) index in the aftermath of extreme stratospheric events. The link between this work and the PV inversion formulation of stratosphere-troposphere coupling is discussed. This work forms part of a three and a half year PhD project.

  12. A multigap resistive plate chamber array for the Extreme Energy Events project

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Gruttola, D.; Abbrescia, M.; Agocs, A.; Aiola, S.; Antolini, R.; Avanzini, C.; Baldini Ferroli, R.; Bencivenni, G.; Bossini, E.; Bressan, E.; Chiavassa, A.; Cicalò, C.; Cifarelli, L.; Coccia, E.; De Pasquale, S.; Di Giovanni, A.; D'Incecco, M.; Dreucci, M.; Fabbri, F. L.; Frolov, V.; Garbini, M.; Gemme, G.; Gnesi, I.; Gustavino, C.; Hatzifotiadou, D.; La Rocca, P.; Li, S.; Librizzi, F.; Maggiora, A.; Massai, M.; Miozzi, S.; Panareo, M.; Paoletti, R.; Perasso, L.; Pilo, F.; Piragino, G.; Regano, A.; Riggi, F.; Righini, G. C.; Sartorelli, G.; Scapparone, E.; Scribano, A.; Selvi, M.; Serci, S.; Siddi, E.; Spandre, G.; Squarcia, S.; Taiuti, M.; Tosello, F.; Votano, L.; Williams, M. C. S.; Yanez, G.; Zichichi, A.; Zouyevski, R.

    2014-10-01

    The Extreme Energy Events (EEE) Project is a Centro Fermi - CERN - INFN - MIUR Collaboration Project for the study of extremely high energy cosmic rays, which exploits the Multigap Resistive Plate Chamber (MRPC) technology. The excellent time resolution and good tracking capability of this kind of detector allows us to study Extensive Air Showers (EAS) with an array of MRPC telescopes distributed across the Italian territory. Each telescope is installed in a high school, with the further goal to introduce students to particle and astroparticle Physics. The status of the experiment and the results obtained are reported.

  13. A systemic approach for managing extreme risk events-dynamic financial analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ph.D.Student Rodica Ianole

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Following the Black Swan logic, it often happens that what we do not know becomes more relevant that what we (believe to know. The management of extreme risks falls under this paradigm in the sense that it cannot be limited to a static approach based only on objective and easily quantifiable variables. Making appeal to the operational tools developed primarily for the insurance industry, the present paper aims to investigate how dynamic financial analysis (DFA can be used within the framework of extreme risk events.

  14. Characterization of extreme flood and drought events in Singapore and investigation of their relationships with ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xin; Babovic, Vladan

    2016-04-01

    Flood and drought are hydrologic extreme events that have significant impact on human and natural systems. Characterization of flood and drought in terms of their start, duration and strength, and investigation of the impact of natural climate variability (i.e., ENSO) and anthropogenic climate change on them can help decision makers to facilitate adaptions to mitigate potential enormous economic costs. To date, numerous studies in this area have been conducted, however, they are primarily focused on extra-tropical regions. Therefore, this study presented a detailed framework to characterize flood and drought events in a tropical urban city-state (i.e., Singapore), based on daily data from 26 precipitation stations. Flood and drought events are extracted from standardized precipitation anomalies from monthly to seasonal time scales. Frequency, duration and magnitude of flood and drought at all the stations are analyzed based on crossing theory. In addition, spatial variation of flood and drought characteristics in Singapore is investigated using ordinary kriging method. Lastly, the impact of ENSO condition on flood and drought characteristics is analyzed using regional regression method. The results show that Singapore can be prone to extreme flood and drought events at both monthly and seasonal time scales. ENSO has significant influence on flood and drought characteristics in Singapore, but mainly during the South West Monsoon season. During the El Niño phase, drought can become more extreme. The results have implications for water management practices in Singapore.

  15. Ensuring Resilience of Natural Resources under Exposure to Extreme Climate Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brent Jacobs

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Natural resources directly support rural livelihoods and underpin much of the wealth of rural and regional Australia. Climate change manifesting as increasing frequency and or severity of extreme weather events poses a threat to sustainable management of natural resources because the recurrence of events may exceed the resilience of natural systems or the coping capacity of social systems. We report the findings of a series of participatory workshops with communities in eight discrete landscapes in South East New South Wales, Australia. The workshops focused on how natural resource management (NRM is considered in the Prevent-Prepare-Respond-Recover emergency management cycle. We found that NRM is generally considered only in relation to the protection of life and property and not for the intrinsic value of ecosystem services that support communities. We make three recommendations to improve NRM under extreme climate events. Firstly, the support to communities offered by emergency management agencies could be bolstered by guidance material co-produced with government NR agencies. Secondly, financial assistance from government should specifically target the restoration and maintenance of green infrastructure to avoid loss of social-ecological resilience. Thirdly, action by natural resource dependent communities should be encouraged and supported to better protect ecosystem services in preparation for future extreme events.

  16. An agent-based approach to modelling the effects of extreme events on global food prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schewe, Jacob; Otto, Christian; Frieler, Katja

    2015-04-01

    Extreme climate events such as droughts or heat waves affect agricultural production in major food producing regions and therefore can influence the price of staple foods on the world market. There is evidence that recent dramatic spikes in grain prices were at least partly triggered by actual and/or expected supply shortages. The reaction of the market to supply changes is however highly nonlinear and depends on complex and interlinked processes such as warehousing, speculation, and export restrictions. Here we present for the first time an agent-based modelling framework that accounts, in simplified terms, for these processes and allows to estimate the reaction of world food prices to supply shocks on a short (monthly) timescale. We test the basic model using observed historical supply, demand, and price data of wheat as a major food grain. Further, we illustrate how the model can be used in conjunction with biophysical crop models to assess the effect of future changes in extreme event regimes on the volatility of food prices. In particular, the explicit representation of storage dynamics makes it possible to investigate the potentially nonlinear interaction between simultaneous extreme events in different food producing regions, or between several consecutive events in the same region, which may both occur more frequently under future global warming.

  17. The May 1967 great storm and radio disruption event: Extreme space weather and extraordinary responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knipp, D. J.; Ramsay, A. C.; Beard, E. D.; Boright, A. L.; Cade, W. B.; Hewins, I. M.; McFadden, R. H.; Denig, W. F.; Kilcommons, L. M.; Shea, M. A.; Smart, D. F.

    2016-09-01

    Although listed as one of the most significant events of the last 80 years, the space weather storm of late May 1967 has been of mostly fading academic interest. The storm made its initial mark with a colossal solar radio burst causing radio interference at frequencies between 0.01 and 9.0 GHz and near-simultaneous disruptions of dayside radio communication by intense fluxes of ionizing solar X-rays. Aspects of military control and communication were immediately challenged. Within hours a solar energetic particle event disrupted high-frequency communication in the polar cap. Subsequently, record-setting geomagnetic and ionospheric storms compounded the disruptions. We explain how the May 1967 storm was nearly one with ultimate societal impact, were it not for the nascent efforts of the United States Air Force in expanding its terrestrial weather monitoring-analysis-warning-prediction efforts into the realm of space weather forecasting. An important and long-lasting outcome of this storm was more formal Department of Defense-support for current-day space weather forecasting. This story develops during the rapid rise of solar cycle 20 and the intense Cold War in the latter half of the twentieth century. We detail the events of late May 1967 in the intersecting categories of solar-terrestrial interactions and the political-military backdrop of the Cold War. This was one of the "Great Storms" of the twentieth century, despite the apparent lack of large geomagnetically induced currents. Radio disruptions like those discussed here warrant the attention of today's radio-reliant, cellular-phone and satellite-navigation enabled world.

  18. Homologous Solar Events on 2011 January 27: Build-up and Propagation in a Complex Coronal Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pick, M.; Stenborg, G.; Démoulin, P.; Zucca, P.; Lecacheux, A.

    2016-05-01

    In spite of the wealth of imaging observations at the extreme-ultraviolet (EUV), X-ray, and radio wavelengths, there are still relatively few cases where all of the imagery is available to study the full development of a coronal mass ejection (CME) event and its associated shock. The aim of this study is to contribute to the understanding of the role of the coronal environment in the development of CMEs and the formation of shocks, and their propagation. We have analyzed the interactions of a couple of homologous CME events with ambient coronal structures. Both events were launched in a direction far from the local vertical, and exhibited a radical change in their direction of propagation during their progression from the low corona into higher altitudes. Observations at EUV wavelengths from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly instrument on board the Solar Dynamic Observatory were used to track the events in the low corona. The development of the events at higher altitudes was followed by the white-light coronagraphs on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. Radio emissions produced during the development of the events were well recorded by the Nançay solar instruments. Thanks to their detection of accelerated electrons, the radio observations are an important complement to the EUV imaging. They allowed us to characterize the development of the associated shocks, and helped to unveil the physical processes behind the complex interactions between the CMEs and ambient medium (e.g., compression, reconnection).

  19. Environmental prediction, risk assessment and extreme events: adaptation strategies for the developing world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webster, Peter J; Jian, Jun

    2011-12-13

    The uncertainty associated with predicting extreme weather events has serious implications for the developing world, owing to the greater societal vulnerability to such events. Continual exposure to unanticipated extreme events is a contributing factor for the descent into perpetual and structural rural poverty. We provide two examples of how probabilistic environmental prediction of extreme weather events can support dynamic adaptation. In the current climate era, we describe how short-term flood forecasts have been developed and implemented in Bangladesh. Forecasts of impending floods with horizons of 10 days are used to change agricultural practices and planning, store food and household items and evacuate those in peril. For the first time in Bangladesh, floods were anticipated in 2007 and 2008, with broad actions taking place in advance of the floods, grossing agricultural and household savings measured in units of annual income. We argue that probabilistic environmental forecasts disseminated to an informed user community can reduce poverty caused by exposure to unanticipated extreme events. Second, it is also realized that not all decisions in the future can be made at the village level and that grand plans for water resource management require extensive planning and funding. Based on imperfect models and scenarios of economic and population growth, we further suggest that flood frequency and intensity will increase in the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Yangtze catchments as greenhouse-gas concentrations increase. However, irrespective of the climate-change scenario chosen, the availability of fresh water in the latter half of the twenty-first century seems to be dominated by population increases that far outweigh climate-change effects. Paradoxically, fresh water availability may become more critical if there is no climate change.

  20. Hydro-meteorological extreme events in the 18th century in Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fragoso, Marcelo; João Alcoforado, Maria; Taborda, João Paulo

    2013-04-01

    The present work is carried out in the frame of the KLIMHIST PROJECT ("Reconstruction and model simulations of past climate in Portugal using documentary and early instrumental sources, 17th-19th century)", and is devoted to the study of hydro-meteorological extreme events during the last 350 years, in order to understand how they have changed in time and compare them with current analogues. More specifically, the results selected to this presentation will focus on some hydro-meteorological extreme events of the 18th century, like severe droughts, heavy precipitation episodes and windstorms. One of the most noteworthy events was the winterstorm Bárbara (3rd to 6th December 1739), already studied in prior investigations (Taborda et al, 2004; Pfister et al, 2010), a devastating storm with strong impacts in Portugal caused by violent winds and heavy rainfall. Several other extreme events were detected by searching different documentary archives, including individual, administrative and ecclesiastic sources. Moreover, a more detailed insight to the 1783-1787 period will be made with regard the Lisbon region, taking into consideration the availability of information for daily meteorological observations as well as documentary evidences, like descriptions from Gazeta de Lisboa, the periodic with more continuous publication in the 18thcentury. Key-words: Instrumental data, Documentary data, Extreme events, Klimhist Project, Portugal References Pfister, C., Garnier, E., Alcoforado, M.J., Wheeler, D. Luterbacher, J. Nunes, M.F., Taborda, J.P. (2010) The meteorological framework and the cultural memory of three severe winter-storms in early eighteenth-century Europe, Climatic Change, 101, 1-2, 281-310 Taborda, JP; Alcoforado, MJ and Garcia, JC (2004) O Clima do Sul de Portugal no Séc.XVIII, Centro de Estudos Geográficos, Área de de Investigação de Geo-Ecologia, relatório no 2

  1. Quantifying population exposure to airborne particulate matter during extreme events in California due to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Mahmud

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The effect of climate change on population-weighted concentrations of particulate matter (PM during extreme events was studied using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model and the UCD/CIT 3-D photochemical air quality model. A "business as usual" (B06.44 global emissions scenario was dynamically downscaled for the entire state of California between the years 2000–2006 and 2047–2053. Air quality simulations were carried out for 1008 days in each of the present-day and future climate conditions using year-2000 emissions. Population-weighted concentrations of PM0.1, PM2.5, and PM10 total mass, components species, and primary source contributions were calculated for California and three air basins: the Sacramento Valley air basin (SV, the San Joaquin Valley air basin (SJV and the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB. Results over annual-average periods were contrasted with extreme events.

    Climate change between 2000 vs. 2050 did not cause a statistically significant change in annual-average population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations within any major sub-region of California in the current study. Climate change did alter the annual-average composition of the airborne particles in the SoCAB, with notable reductions of elemental carbon (EC; −3% and organic carbon (OC; −3% due to increased annual-average wind speeds that diluted primary concentrations from gasoline combustion (−3% and food cooking (−4%. In contrast, climate change caused significant increases in population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations in central California during extreme events. The maximum 24-h average PM2.5 concentration experienced by an average person during a ten-year period in the SJV increased by 21% due to enhanced production of secondary particulate matter (manifested as NH4NO3. In general, climate change caused increased

  2. Climate Extremes Events and their Connection with Runoff in the Yellow River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Caihong; Lei, Deyi; He, Huli; Wang, Jijun

    2016-04-01

    This study analyzes the temporal and spatial distribution of runoff and their relationship with the extreme values of eight climate indices, based on observational data from 143 meteorological stations and 6 hydrological stations across the basin. The eight core indices selected from the STARDEX projects reflect rather moderate extremes. Statistics methods and GIS technology were be used for analysis on the relationship and distribution characteristics. We analyzed the reason of runoff change and the relationship between the climate extreme events and observed runoff from six hydrological stations. Our results show that the annual and seasonal runoff showed obviously decrease tendency. Sharp decreases of runoff in six hydrological stations occurred in the late 1980s and 1990s. It can be seen that the decrease in runoff was caused by climate change, increased demands for water supply, land use change, etc. And the difference between the magnitude of the increasing and decreasing trends for different indices at different stations suggests that the climate extremes and environment change resulted in a decrease in runoff. The results also show that the shortage of water resources will become more pronounced in the Yellow River Basin with the increased occurrence of climate extremes. The results presented here will help to improve our understanding of the changes to climate extremes, and provide a basis for further investigation.

  3. The 2012 July 23 Backside Eruption: An Extreme Energetic Particle Event?

    CERN Document Server

    Gopalswamy, Nat; Thakur, Neeharika; Mäkelä, Pertti; Xie, Hong; Akiyama, Sachiko

    2016-01-01

    The backside coronal mass ejection (CME) of 2012 July 23 had a short Sun to Earth shock transit time (18.5 hours). The associated solar energetic particle (SEP) event had a >10 MeV proton flux peaking at ~5000 pfu, and the energetic storm particle (ESP) event was an order of magnitude larger, making it the most intense event in the space era at these energies. By a detailed analysis of the CME, shock, and SEP characteristics, we find that the July 23 event is consistent with a high-energy SEP event (accelerating particles to GeV energies). The time of maximum and fluence spectra in the range 10-100 MeV were very hard, similar to those of ground level enhancement (GLE) events. We found a hierarchical relationship between the CME initial speeds and the fluence spectral indices: CMEs with low initial speeds had SEP events with the softest spectra, while those with highest initial speeds had SEP events with the hardest spectra. CMEs attaining intermediate speeds result in moderately hard spectra. The July 23 even...

  4. Large solar energetic particle event that occurred on 2012 March 7 and its VDA analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Ding, Liu-Guan; Wang, Zhi-Wei; Le, Gui-Ming

    2016-01-01

    On 2012 March 7, the STEREO Ahead and Behind spacecraft, along with the near-earth spacecraft (e.g. SOHO, Wind) situated between the two STEREO spacecraft, observed an extremely large global solar energetic particle (SEP) event in Solar Cycle 24. Two successive coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected close in time. From the multi-point in-situ observations, it can be found that this SEP event was caused by the first CME, and the second one was not involved. Using the velocity dispersion analysis (VDA), we find that for well magnetically connected point, the energetic protons and electrons are released nearly at the same time. The path lengths to STEREO-B(STB) of protons and electrons have distinct difference and deviate remarkably from the nominal Parker spiral path length, which is likely due to the presence of interplanetary magnetic structures situated between the source and the STB. Also the VDA method seems only to obtain reasonable results at well-connected locations and the inferred energetic ...

  5. Propensity and Risk Assessment for Solar Particle Events: Consideration of Integral Fluence at High Proton Energies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Myung-Hee; Hayat, Matthew J.; Feiveson, alan H.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2008-01-01

    For future space missions with longer duration, exposure to large solar particle events (SPEs) with high energy levels is the major concern during extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) on the lunar and Mars surface. The expected SPE propensity for large proton fluence was estimated from a non-homogeneous Poisson model using the historical database for measurements of protons with energy > 30 MeV, Phi(sub 30). The database includes a continuous data set for the past 5 solar cycles. The resultant SPE risk analysis for a specific mission period was made including the 95% confidence level. In addition to total particle intensity of SPE, the detailed energy spectra of protons especially at high energy levels were recognized as extremely important parameter for the risk assessment, since there remains a significant cancer risks from those energetic particles for large events. Using all the recorded proton fluence of SPEs for energies >60 and >100 MeV, Phi(sub 60) and Phi(sub 100), respectively, the expected propensities of SPEs abundant with high energy protons were estimated from the same non-homogeneous Poisson model and the representative cancer risk was analyzed. The dependencies of risk with different energy spectra, for e.g. between soft and hard SPEs, were evaluated. Finally, we describe approaches to improve radiation protection of astronauts and optimize mission planning for future space missions.

  6. Variability of extreme climate events in the territory and water area of Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serykh, Ilya; Kostianoy, Andrey

    2016-04-01

    The Fourth (2007) and Fifth (2014) Assessment Reports on Climate Change of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) state that in the XXI century, climate change will be accompanied by an increase in the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme nature events such as: extreme precipitation and extreme high and low air temperatures. All these will lead to floods, droughts, fires, shallowing of rivers, lakes and water reservoirs, desertification, dust storms, melting of glaciers and permafrost, algal bloom events in the seas, lakes and water reservoirs. In its turn, these events will lead to chemical and biological contamination of water, land and air. These events will result in a deterioration of quality of life, significant financial loss due to damage to the houses, businesses, roads, agriculture, forestry, tourism, and in many cases they end in loss of life. These predictions are confirmed by the results of the studies presented in the RosHydromet First (2008) and Second (2014) Assessment Reports on Climate Change and its Consequences in Russian Federation. Scientists predictions have been repeatedly confirmed in the last 15 years - floods in Novorossiysk (2002), Krymsk and Gelendzhik (2012), the Far East (2013), heat waves in 2010, unusually cold winter (February) of 2012 and unusually warm winter of 2013/2014 in the European territory of Russia. In this regard, analysis and forecasting of extreme climate events associated with climate change in the territory of Russia are an extremely important task. This task is complicated by the fact that modern atmospheric models used by IPCC and RosHydromet badly reproduce and predict the intensity of precipitation. We are analyzing meteorological reanalysis data (NCEP/NCAR, 20th Century Reanalysis, ERA-20C, JRA-55) and satellite data (NASA and AVISO) on air, water and land temperature, rainfall, wind speed and cloud cover, water levels in seas and lakes, index of vegetation over the past 30-60 years

  7. EIT: Solar corona synoptic observations from SOHO with an Extreme-ultraviolet Imaging Telescope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delaboudiniere, J. P.; Gabriel, A. H.; Artzner, G. E.; Michels, D. J.; Dere, K. P.; Howard, R. A.; Catura, R.; Stern, R.; Lemen, J.; Neupert, W.

    1988-01-01

    The Extreme-ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) of SOHO (solar and heliospheric observatory) will provide full disk images in emission lines formed at temperatures that map solar structures ranging from the chromospheric network to the hot magnetically confined plasma in the corona. Images in four narrow bandpasses will be obtained using normal incidence multilayered optics deposited on quadrants of a Ritchey-Chretien telescope. The EIT is capable of providing a uniform one arc second resolution over its entire 50 by 50 arc min field of view. Data from the EIT will be extremely valuable for identifying and interpreting the spatial and temperature fine structures of the solar atmosphere. Temporal analysis will provide information on the stability of these structures and identify dynamical processes. EIT images, issued daily, will provide the global corona context for aid in unifying the investigations and in forming the observing plans for SOHO coronal instruments.

  8. Do climate extreme events foster violent civil conflicts? A coincidence analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Donges, Jonathan F.; Donner, Reik V.

    2014-05-01

    Civil conflicts promoted by adverse environmental conditions represent one of the most important potential feedbacks in the global socio-environmental nexus. While the role of climate extremes as a triggering factor is often discussed, no consensus is yet reached about the cause-and-effect relation in the observed data record. Here we present results of a rigorous statistical coincidence analysis based on the Munich Re Inc. extreme events database and the Uppsala conflict data program. We report evidence for statistically significant synchronicity between climate extremes with high economic impact and violent conflicts for various regions, although no coherent global signal emerges from our analysis. Our results indicate the importance of regional vulnerability and might aid to identify hot-spot regions for potential climate-triggered violent social conflicts.

  9. Comparison of annual maximum series and partial duration series methods for modeling extreme hydrologic events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Rasmussen, Peter F.; Rosbjerg, Dan

    1997-01-01

    Two different models for analyzing extreme hydrologic events, based on, respectively, partial duration series (PDS) and annual maximum series (AMS), are compared. The PDS model assumes a generalized Pareto distribution for modeling threshold exceedances corresponding to a generalized extreme value...... model with ML estimation for large positive shape parameters. Since heavy-tailed distributions, corresponding to negative shape parameters, are far the most common in hydrology, the PDS model generally is to be preferred for at-site quantile estimation....... distribution for annual maxima. The performance of the two models in terms of the uncertainty of the T-year event estimator is evaluated in the cases of estimation with, respectively, the maximum likelihood (ML) method, the method of moments (MOM), and the method of probability weighted moments (PWM...

  10. Developing research about extreme events and impacts to support international climate policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Friederike; James, Rachel; Parker, Hannah; Boyd, Emily; Jones, Richard; Allen, Myles; Mitchell, Daniel; Cornforth, Rosalind

    2015-04-01

    Climate change is expected to have some of its most significant impacts through changes in the frequency and severity of extreme events. There is a pressing need for policy to support adaptation to changing climate risks, and to deal with residual loss and damage from climate change. In 2013, the Warsaw International Mechanism was established by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to address loss and damage in developing countries. Strategies to help vulnerable regions cope with losses from extreme events will presumably require information about the influence of anthropogenic forcing on extreme weather. But what kind of scientific evidence will be most useful for the Warsaw Mechanism? And how can the scientific communities working on extreme events and impacts develop their research to support the advance of this important policy? As climate scientists conducting probabilistic event attribution studies, we have been working with social scientists to investigate these questions. Our own research seeks to examine the role of external drivers, including greenhouse gas emissions, on the risk of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, flooding, and drought. We use large ensembles of climate models to compute the probability of occurrence of extreme events under current conditions and in a world which might have been without anthropogenic interference. In cases where the models are able to simulate extreme weather, the analysis allows for conclusions about the extent to which climate change may have increased, decreased, or made no change to the risk of the event occurring. These results could thus have relevance for the UNFCCC negotiations on loss and damage, and we have been communicating with policymakers and observers to the policy process to better understand how we can develop our research to support their work; by attending policy meetings, conducting interviews, and using a participatory game developed with the Red Cross

  11. Resilience of coastal wetlands to extreme hydrologic events in Apalachicola Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tahsin, Subrina; Medeiros, Stephen C.; Singh, Arvind

    2016-07-01

    Extreme hydrologic events such as hurricanes and droughts continuously threaten wetlands which provide key ecosystem services in coastal areas. The recovery time for vegetation after impact from these extreme events can be highly variable depending on the hazard type and intensity. Apalachicola Bay in Florida is home to a rich variety of saltwater and freshwater wetlands and is subject to a wide range of hydrologic hazards. Using spatiotemporal changes in Landsat-based empirical vegetation indices, we investigate the impact of hurricane and drought on both freshwater and saltwater wetlands from year 2000 to 2015 in Apalachicola Bay. Our results indicate that saltwater wetlands are more resilient than freshwater wetlands and suggest that in response to hurricanes, the coastal wetlands took almost a year to recover, while recovery following a drought period was observed after only a month.

  12. Extreme event return times in long-term memory processes near 1/f

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blender, R.; Fraedrich, K.; Sienz, F.

    2008-07-01

    The distribution of extreme event return times and their correlations are analyzed in observed and simulated long-term memory (LTM) time series with 1/f power spectra. The analysis is based on tropical temperature and mixing ratio (specific humidity) time series from TOGA COARE with 1 min resolution and an approximate 1/f power spectrum. Extreme events are determined by Peak-Over-Threshold (POT) crossing. The Weibull distribution represents a reasonable fit to the return time distributions while the power-law predicted by the stretched exponential for 1/f deviates considerably. For a comparison and an analysis of the return time predictability, a very long simulated time series with an approximate 1/f spectrum is produced by a fractionally differenced (FD) process. This simulated data confirms the Weibull distribution (a power law can be excluded). The return time sequences show distinctly weaker long-term correlations than the original time series (correlation exponent γ≍0.56).

  13. Variability of continental water storage and its relationship to extreme hydrological events in the Amazon basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Emília Diniz Silva Guedes

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we evaluated the variability of total continental water storage derived from estimates of balance water using satellite data in association with hydro-meteorological data. The occurrence of extreme hydrological events such as drought and flood in the Amazon basin was related to the variability of total storage of continental water. Both estimation methods (PER- Precipitation, Evapotranspiration and Runoff and GRACE show a strong decrease in water storage during the 2005 drought and a strong recovery during the 2009 flood. The results show that there is strong relationship between the occurrences of extreme hydrological events and water storage in the Amazon. Local and deep measurements of continental water storage can provide more precise indications of the dynamics of the hydrological system and its response to climate variability.

  14. Credible occurrence probabilities for extreme geophysical events: earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, magnetic storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, Jeffrey J.

    2012-01-01

    Statistical analysis is made of rare, extreme geophysical events recorded in historical data -- counting the number of events $k$ with sizes that exceed chosen thresholds during specific durations of time $\\tau$. Under transformations that stabilize data and model-parameter variances, the most likely Poisson-event occurrence rate, $k/\\tau$, applies for frequentist inference and, also, for Bayesian inference with a Jeffreys prior that ensures posterior invariance under changes of variables. Frequentist confidence intervals and Bayesian (Jeffreys) credibility intervals are approximately the same and easy to calculate: $(1/\\tau)[(\\sqrt{k} - z/2)^{2},(\\sqrt{k} + z/2)^{2}]$, where $z$ is a parameter that specifies the width, $z=1$ ($z=2$) corresponding to $1\\sigma$, $68.3\\%$ ($2\\sigma$, $95.4\\%$). If only a few events have been observed, as is usually the case for extreme events, then these "error-bar" intervals might be considered to be relatively wide. From historical records, we estimate most likely long-term occurrence rates, 10-yr occurrence probabilities, and intervals of frequentist confidence and Bayesian credibility for large earthquakes, explosive volcanic eruptions, and magnetic storms.

  15. Climate Central World Weather Attribution (WWA) project: Real-time extreme weather event attribution analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haustein, Karsten; Otto, Friederike; Uhe, Peter; Allen, Myles; Cullen, Heidi

    2015-04-01

    Extreme weather detection and attribution analysis has emerged as a core theme in climate science over the last decade or so. By using a combination of observational data and climate models it is possible to identify the role of climate change in certain types of extreme weather events such as sea level rise and its contribution to storm surges, extreme heat events and droughts or heavy rainfall and flood events. These analyses are usually carried out after an extreme event has occurred when reanalysis and observational data become available. The Climate Central WWA project will exploit the increasing forecast skill of seasonal forecast prediction systems such as the UK MetOffice GloSea5 (Global seasonal forecasting system) ensemble forecasting method. This way, the current weather can be fed into climate models to simulate large ensembles of possible weather scenarios before an event has fully emerged yet. This effort runs along parallel and intersecting tracks of science and communications that involve research, message development and testing, staged socialization of attribution science with key audiences, and dissemination. The method we employ uses a very large ensemble of simulations of regional climate models to run two different analyses: one to represent the current climate as it was observed, and one to represent the same events in the world that might have been without human-induced climate change. For the weather "as observed" experiment, the atmospheric model uses observed sea surface temperature (SST) data from GloSea5 (currently) and present-day atmospheric gas concentrations to simulate weather events that are possible given the observed climate conditions. The weather in the "world that might have been" experiments is obtained by removing the anthropogenic forcing from the observed SSTs, thereby simulating a counterfactual world without human activity. The anthropogenic forcing is obtained by comparing the CMIP5 historical and natural simulations

  16. Using long term synthetic time series to assess the impact of meteorological extreme events on renewable energy systems: a case study of wind and hydro power in Sweden

    Science.gov (United States)

    Höltinger, Stefan; Schmidt, Johannes; Weterlund, Elisabeth

    2017-04-01

    Synthetic time series of renewable energy generation provide important inputs for energy system models that study the transition to low carbon energy systems. The coverage of national energy statistics is usually too short or temporal resolution too low - in particular if meteorological extreme events should be assessed. These extreme events may put high stress on power systems with very high shares of renewables and therefore have to be studied in detail. We use simulated time series of Swedish wind energy generation for a 35 year period based on MERRA reanalysis datasets. The simulation of hydropower generation is more complex and requires hydrological models that combine precipitation data with spatially explicit information on soil type and land cover to simulate river discharge. For this purpose, we use time series of daily river discharge that have been simulated using the open source model HYPE (HYdrological Predictions for the Environment). We compared the derived time series for wind and hydropower generation in the four Swedish bidding areas with respect to their long-term correlation, patterns of seasonality, and length and duration of extreme events. Preliminary results show that expanding wind power capacities could significantly reduce the overall variability of renewable energy generation. Furthermore, the frequency and duration of extreme production events in a combined wind-hydropower system is lower than in a hydropower system only. Further work will study the need for backup capacities in a future Swedish power system with very high shares of hydro, wind and solar power (>90%).

  17. Power Outages, Extreme Events and Health: a Systematic Review of the Literature from 2011-2012

    OpenAIRE

    Klinger, Chaamala; Landeg, Owen; Murray, Virginia

    2014-01-01

    Background Extreme events (e.g. flooding) threaten critical infrastructure including power supplies. Many interlinked systems in the modern world depend on a reliable power supply to function effectively. The health sector is no exception, but the impact of power outages on health is poorly understood. Greater understanding is essential so that adverse health impacts can be prevented and/or mitigated. Methods We searched Medline, CINAHL and Scopus for papers about the health impacts of power ...

  18. Indications of an extreme event deposits along the west coast of India: evidences from GPR investigations

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Loveson, V.J.; Gujar, A.R.; Iyer, S.D.; Srivastava, P.; Tirodkar, G.; Luis, R.A.A.

    architecture of sedimentary bed sets, to trace paleo-channels and to reconstruct fluvial dynamics are well known (Vandenberghe and van Overmeeren 1999; Neal et al. 2002; Gourry et al. 2003; Sridhar and Patidar 2005; Smith et al. 2006; Smith et al. 2009... architecture of extreme event deposits were established by various earlier studies (Neal 2002; Loveson et al. 2005; Loveson and Gujar 2010; Shukla 2012; Koster, 2012; Loveson et al. 2014). The main goals of the present study were to investigate...

  19. Modelling of extreme rainfall events in Peninsular Malaysia based on annual maximum and partial duration series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zin, Wan Zawiah Wan; Shinyie, Wendy Ling; Jemain, Abdul Aziz

    2015-02-01

    In this study, two series of data for extreme rainfall events are generated based on Annual Maximum and Partial Duration Methods, derived from 102 rain-gauge stations in Peninsular from 1982-2012. To determine the optimal threshold for each station, several requirements must be satisfied and Adapted Hill estimator is employed for this purpose. A semi-parametric bootstrap is then used to estimate the mean square error (MSE) of the estimator at each threshold and the optimal threshold is selected based on the smallest MSE. The mean annual frequency is also checked to ensure that it lies in the range of one to five and the resulting data is also de-clustered to ensure independence. The two data series are then fitted to Generalized Extreme Value and Generalized Pareto distributions for annual maximum and partial duration series, respectively. The parameter estimation methods used are the Maximum Likelihood and the L-moment methods. Two goodness of fit tests are then used to evaluate the best-fitted distribution. The results showed that the Partial Duration series with Generalized Pareto distribution and Maximum Likelihood parameter estimation provides the best representation for extreme rainfall events in Peninsular Malaysia for majority of the stations studied. Based on these findings, several return values are also derived and spatial mapping are constructed to identify the distribution characteristic of extreme rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia.

  20. Spectral Analyses and Radiation Exposures from Several Ground-Level Enhancement (GLE) Solar Proton Events: A Comparison of Methodologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atwell, William; Tylka, Allan; Dietrich, William; Badavi, Francis; Rojdev, Kristina

    2011-01-01

    Several methods for analyzing the particle spectra from extremely large solar proton events, called Ground-Level Enhancements (GLEs), have been developed and utilized by the scientific community to describe the solar proton energy spectra and have been further applied to ascertain the radiation exposures to humans and radio-sensitive systems, namely electronics. In this paper 12 GLEs dating back to 1956 are discussed, and the three methods for describing the solar proton energy spectra are reviewed. The three spectral fitting methodologies are EXP [an exponential in proton rigidity (R)], WEIB [Weibull fit: an exponential in proton energy], and the Band function (BAND) [a double power law in proton rigidity]. The EXP and WEIB methods use low energy (MeV) GLE solar proton data and make extrapolations out to approx.1 GeV. On the other hand, the BAND method utilizes low- and medium-energy satellite solar proton data combined with high-energy solar proton data deduced from high-latitude neutron monitoring stations. Thus, the BAND method completely describes the entire proton energy spectrum based on actual solar proton observations out to 10 GeV. Using the differential spectra produced from each of the 12 selected GLEs for each of the three methods, radiation exposures are presented and discussed in detail. These radiation exposures are then compared with the current 30-day and annual crew exposure limits and the radiation effects to electronics.

  1. Agent Based Simulation of Group Emotions Evolution and Strategy Intervention in Extreme Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bo Li

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Agent based simulation method has become a prominent approach in computational modeling and analysis of public emergency management in social science research. The group emotions evolution, information diffusion, and collective behavior selection make extreme incidents studies a complex system problem, which requires new methods for incidents management and strategy evaluation. This paper studies the group emotion evolution and intervention strategy effectiveness using agent based simulation method. By employing a computational experimentation methodology, we construct the group emotion evolution as a complex system and test the effects of three strategies. In addition, the events-chain model is proposed to model the accumulation influence of the temporal successive events. Each strategy is examined through three simulation experiments, including two make-up scenarios and a real case study. We show how various strategies could impact the group emotion evolution in terms of the complex emergence and emotion accumulation influence in extreme events. This paper also provides an effective method of how to use agent-based simulation for the study of complex collective behavior evolution problem in extreme incidents, emergency, and security study domains.

  2. Variations of Dissolved Iron in the Amur River During an Extreme Flood Event in 2013

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YAN Baixing; GUAN Jiunian; Vladimir SHESTERKIN; ZHU Hui

    2016-01-01

    As a key factor limiting primary productivity in marine ecosystem,dissolved iron (DFe) export from fluvial systems has increased recently.There is particular concern about discharges of DFe during extreme flooding,when they are thought to increase considerably.An extreme flood event that caused inundation of extensive areas of Far Eastern Russia and Northeastern China occurred in the basin of the Amur River during summer and autumn 2013.During this event,water samples were collected in the middle reaches of the Amur River and the lower reaches at Khabarovsk City and analyzed for DFe concentrations and other aquatic parameters.The resuits show that the average DFe concentrations in the middle reaches of the Amur River (right bank) and at Khabarovsk were 1.11 mg/L and 0.32 mg/L,respectively,during the extreme flood in 2013.The total discharge of DFe during the flood event was 6.25 x 104 t.The high discharge of DFe during the flood reflects the elevated discharge of the river,hydrologically connected riparian wetlands,vast quantities of terrestrial runoff,and flood discharges from the Zeya and Bureya reservoirs.These results show that long-term monitoring is needed to identify and assess the impacts of DFe transport on the downstream reaches,estuarine area,and coastal ecosystems of the Amur River.

  3. Herding interactions as an opportunity to prevent extreme events in financial markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kononovicius, Aleksejus; Gontis, Vygintas

    2015-07-01

    A characteristic feature of complex systems in general is a tight coupling between their constituent parts. In complex socio-economic systems this kind of behavior leads to self-organization, which may be both desirable (e.g. social cooperation) and undesirable (e.g. mass panic, financial "bubbles" or "crashes"). Abundance of the empirical data as well as general insights into the trading behavior enables the creation of simple agent-based models reproducing sophisticated statistical features of the financial markets. In this contribution we consider a possibility to prevent self-organized extreme events in financial market modeling its behavior using agent-based herding model, which reproduces main stylized facts of the financial markets. We show that introduction of agents with predefined fundamentalist trading behavior helps to significantly reduce the probability of the extreme price fluctuations events. We also investigate random trading, which was previously found to be promising extreme event prevention strategy, and find that its impact on the market has to be considered among other opportunities to stabilize the markets.

  4. Modelling the extreme precipitation event over Madeira Island on 20 February 2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Luna

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available In the morning of the 20 February of 2010 an extreme precipitation event occurred over Madeira Island. This event triggered several flash floods and mudslides in the southern parts of the island, resulting in 42 confirmed deaths, 100 injured, and at least 8 people still missing. These extreme weather conditions were associated to a weather frontal system moving northeastwards embedded in a low pressure area centered in the Azores archipelago. This storm was one in a series of such storms that affected Portugal, Spain, Morocco and the Canary islands causing flooding and strong winds. These storms were bolstered by an unusually strong sea surface temperature gradient across the Atlantic Ocean.

    In this study, the WRF model is used to evaluate the intensity and predictability of this precipitation extreme event over the island. The synoptic/orographic nature of the precipitation is also evaluated, as well as the sensitivity of the model to horizontal resolution and cumulus parameterization. Orography was found to be the main factor explaining the occurrence, amplitude and phase of precipitation over the Island.

  5. Generating extreme weather event sets from very large ensembles of regional climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massey, Neil; Guillod, Benoit; Otto, Friederike; Allen, Myles; Jones, Richard; Hall, Jim

    2015-04-01

    Generating extreme weather event sets from very large ensembles of regional climate models Neil Massey, Benoit P. Guillod, Friederike E. L. Otto, Myles R. Allen, Richard Jones, Jim W. Hall Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK Extreme events can have large impacts on societies and are therefore being increasingly studied. In particular, climate change is expected to impact the frequency and intensity of these events. However, a major limitation when investigating extreme weather events is that, by definition, only few events are present in observations. A way to overcome this issue it to use large ensembles of model simulations. Using the volunteer distributed computing (VDC) infrastructure of weather@home [1], we run a very large number (10'000s) of RCM simulations over the European domain at a resolution of 25km, with an improved land-surface scheme, nested within a free-running GCM. Using VDC allows many thousands of climate model runs to be computed. Using observations for the GCM boundary forcings we can run historical "hindcast" simulations over the past 100 to 150 years. This allows us, due to the chaotic variability of the atmosphere, to ascertain how likely an extreme event was, given the boundary forcings, and to derive synthetic event sets. The events in these sets did not actually occur in the observed record but could have occurred given the boundary forcings, with an associated probability. The event sets contain time-series of fields of meteorological variables that allow impact modellers to assess the loss the event would incur. Projections of events into the future are achieved by modelling projections of the sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice boundary forcings, by combining the variability of the SST in the observed record with a range of warming signals derived from the varying responses of SSTs in the CMIP5 ensemble to elevated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in three RCP scenarios. Simulating the future with a

  6. Relationships between interdecadal variability and extreme precipitation events in South America during the monsoon season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Alice; Laureanti, Nicole; Rodakoviski, Rodrigo

    2016-04-01

    This study aims to clarify the impact of interdecadal climate oscillations (periods of 8 years and longer) on the frequency of extreme precipitation events over South America in the monsoon season (austral spring and summer), and determine the influence of these oscillations on the daily precipitation frequency distribution. Interdecadal variability modes of precipitation during the monsoon season are provided by a continental-scale rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis for the 60 years period 1950-2009. The main disclosed modes are robust, since they are reproduced for different periods. They can produce differences around 50% in monthly precipitation between opposite phases. Oceanic and atmospheric anomalous fields associated with these modes indicate that they have physical basis. The first modes in spring and summer display highest correlation with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) SST mode, while the second modes have strongest correlation with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) SST mode. However, there are also other influences on these modes. As the most dramatic consequences of climate variability stem from its influence on the frequency of extreme precipitation events, it is important to also assess this influence, since variations in monthly or seasonal precipitation do not necessarily imply significant alterations in their extreme events. This study seeks to answer the questions: i) Do opposite phases of the main interdecadal modes of seasonal precipitation produce significant anomalies in the frequency of extreme events? ii) Does the interdecadal variability of the frequency of extreme events show similar spatial and temporal structure as the interdecadal variability of the seasonal precipitation? iii) Does the interdecadal variability change the daily precipitation probability distribution between opposite phases? iv) In this case, which ranges of daily precipitation are most affected? The significant anomalies of the extreme

  7. Testing for scale-invariance in extreme events, with application to earthquake occurrence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Main, I.; Naylor, M.; Greenhough, J.; Touati, S.; Bell, A.; McCloskey, J.

    2009-04-01

    We address the generic problem of testing for scale-invariance in extreme events, i.e. are the biggest events in a population simply a scaled model of those of smaller size, or are they in some way different? Are large earthquakes for example ‘characteristic', do they ‘know' how big they will be before the event nucleates, or is the size of the event determined only in the avalanche-like process of rupture? In either case what are the implications for estimates of time-dependent seismic hazard? One way of testing for departures from scale invariance is to examine the frequency-size statistics, commonly used as a bench mark in a number of applications in Earth and Environmental sciences. Using frequency data however introduces a number of problems in data analysis. The inevitably small number of data points for extreme events and more generally the non-Gaussian statistical properties strongly affect the validity of prior assumptions about the nature of uncertainties in the data. The simple use of traditional least squares (still common in the literature) introduces an inherent bias to the best fit result. We show first that the sampled frequency in finite real and synthetic data sets (the latter based on the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence model) converge to a central limit only very slowly due to temporal correlations in the data. A specific correction for temporal correlations enables an estimate of convergence properties to be mapped non-linearly on to a Gaussian one. Uncertainties closely follow a Poisson distribution of errors across the whole range of seismic moment for typical catalogue sizes. In this sense the confidence limits are scale-invariant. A systematic sample bias effect due to counting whole numbers in a finite catalogue makes a ‘characteristic'-looking type extreme event distribution a likely outcome of an underlying scale-invariant probability distribution. This highlights the tendency of ‘eyeball' fits unconsciously (but wrongly in

  8. Extreme climate events over northern China during the last 50 years

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HANHui; GONGDaoyi

    2003-01-01

    Climate extremes for agriculture-pasture transitional zone, northem China, are analyzed on the basis of daily mean temperature and precipitation observations for 31 stations in the period 1956-2001. Analysis season for precipitation is May-September, i.e., the rainy season. For temperature is the hottest three months, i.e., June through August. Heavy rain events, defined as those with daily precipitation equal to or larger than 50 mm, show no significant secular trend. A jump-like change, however, is found occurring in about 1980. For the period 1980-1993, the frequency of heavy rain events is significantly lower than the previous periods. Simultaneously, the occurring time of heavy rains expanded, commencing about one month early and ending one month later. Long dry spells are defined as those with longer than 10 days without rainfall. The frequency of long dry spells displays a significant (at the 99% confidence level) trend at the value of +8.3% /10a. That may be one of the major causes of the frequent droughts emerging over northern China during the last decades. Extremely hot and low temperature events are defined as the uppermost 10% daily temperatures and the lowest 10% daily temperatures, respectively. There is a weak and non-significant upward trend in frequency of extremely high temperatures from the 1950s to the mid-1990s. But the number of hot events increases as much as twice since 1997. That coincides well with the sudden rise in mean summer temperature for the same period. Contrary to that, the fiequency of low temperature events have been decreasing steadily since the 1950s, with a significant linear trend of-15%/10a.

  9. Processes and Geomorphological Impacts of an Extreme Flash Flood Event in SE Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hooke, J.

    2015-12-01

    A major flash flood event took place on 28 September, 2012 in SE Spain, resulting in 10 fatalities and much damage to infrastructure regionally. The flood affected long-term monitoring sites in two catchments in which morphological changes and flow dynamics of these ephemeral channels were being measured. Thus detailed data on channel state prior to the flood were available. The flood event in the Nogalte catchment was extreme in its peak flow, rate of rise and unit runoff. The catchment has steep relief and much bare soil under almond groves, resulting in high sediment supply. The channel is confined in places, but mostly wide and braided, composed of loose gravel and occupying much of the valley floor. Flow was spatially continuous, with high connectivity throughout the catchment. The flood effects were net depositional in the monitored sites, with massive sedimentation on the channel bars. Vegetation was destroyed. Bank erosion and destruction of embankments took place in some locations. Hydraulic calculations indicate very high velocities, stream power and Froude numbers. Modelling and field evidence demonstrate extremely high sediment competence and sediment loadings. The influence of the event dynamics on processes and net outcomes is discussed. The impacts are compared with other events in this and neighbouring catchments. Overall, the event in the Nogalte did not alter the morphology markedly in spite of its extreme characteristics. It is suggested that these valley floors are adapted to this type of flash flood but that flows of such force and magnitude need to be allowed for in management in such an environment.

  10. Short time step continuous rainfall modeling and simulation of extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callau Poduje, A. C.; Haberlandt, U.

    2017-09-01

    The design, planning, operation and overall assessment of urban drainage systems require long and continuous rain series in a high temporal resolution. Unfortunately, the availability of this data is usually short. Nevertheless a precipitation model could be used to tackle this shortcoming; therefore it is in the aim of this study to present a stochastic point precipitation model to reproduce average rainfall event properties along with extreme values. For this purpose a model is proposed to generate long synthetic series of rainfall for a temporal resolution of 5 min. It is based on an alternating renewal framework and events are characterized by variables describing durations, amounts and peaks. A group of 24 stations located in the north of Germany is used to set up and test the model. The adequate modeling of joint behaviour of rainfall amount and duration is found to be essential for reproducing the observed properties, especially for the extreme events. Copulas are advantageous tools for modeling these variables jointly; however caution must be taken in the selection of the proper copula. The inclusion of seasonality and small events is as well tested and found to be useful. The model is directly validated by generating long synthetic time series and comparing them with observed ones. An indirect validation is as well performed based on a fictional urban hydrological system. The proposed model is capable of reproducing seasonal behaviour and main characteristics of the rainfall events including extremes along with urban flooding and overflow behaviour. Overall the performance of the model is acceptable compared to the design practice. The proposed model is simple to interpret, fast to implement and to transfer to other regions, whilst showing acceptable results.

  11. Solar sources of interplanetary southward Bz events responsible for major magnetic storms (1978-1979)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Frances; Tsurutani, Bruce T.; Smith, Edward J.; Gonzalez, Walter D.; Akasofu, Syun I.

    1989-01-01

    The solar sources of interplanetary southward Bz events responsible for major magnetic storms observed in the August 1978-December 1979 period were studied using a full complement of solar wind plasma and field data from ISEE 3. It was found that, of the ten major storms observed, seven were initiated by active region flares, and three were associated with prominence eruptions in solar quiet regions. Nine of the storms were associated with interplanetary shocks. However, a comparison of the solar events' characteristics and those of the resulting interplanetary shocks indicated that standard solar parameters did not correlate with the strengths of the resulting shocks at 1 AU.

  12. Nitrogen accumulation and partitioning in a High Arctic tundra ecosystem from extreme atmospheric N deposition events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choudhary, Sonal, E-mail: S.Choudhary@sheffield.ac.uk [Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western Bank, Sheffield S10 2TN (United Kingdom); Management School, University of Sheffield, Conduit Road, Sheffield S10 1FL (United Kingdom); Blaud, Aimeric [Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western Bank, Sheffield S10 2TN (United Kingdom); Osborn, A. Mark [Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western Bank, Sheffield S10 2TN (United Kingdom); School of Applied Sciences, RMIT University, PO Box 71, Bundoora, VIC 3083 (Australia); Press, Malcolm C. [School of Biosciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT (United Kingdom); Manchester Metropolitan University, Manchester, M15 6BH (United Kingdom); Phoenix, Gareth K. [Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western Bank, Sheffield S10 2TN (United Kingdom)

    2016-06-01

    Arctic ecosystems are threatened by pollution from recently detected extreme atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition events in which up to 90% of the annual N deposition can occur in just a few days. We undertook the first assessment of the fate of N from extreme deposition in High Arctic tundra and are presenting the results from the whole ecosystem {sup 15}N labelling experiment. In 2010, we simulated N depositions at rates of 0, 0.04, 0.4 and 1.2 g N m{sup −2} yr{sup −1}, applied as {sup 15}NH{sub 4}{sup 15}NO{sub 3} in Svalbard (79{sup °}N), during the summer. Separate applications of {sup 15}NO{sub 3}{sup −} and {sup 15}NH{sub 4}{sup +} were also made to determine the importance of N form in their retention. More than 95% of the total {sup 15}N applied was recovered after one growing season (~ 90% after two), demonstrating a considerable capacity of Arctic tundra to retain N from these deposition events. Important sinks for the deposited N, regardless of its application rate or form, were non-vascular plants > vascular plants > organic soil > litter > mineral soil, suggesting that non-vascular plants could be the primary component of this ecosystem to undergo measurable changes due to N enrichment from extreme deposition events. Substantial retention of N by soil microbial biomass (70% and 39% of {sup 15}N in organic and mineral horizon, respectively) during the initial partitioning demonstrated their capacity to act as effective buffers for N leaching. Between the two N forms, vascular plants (Salix polaris) in particular showed difference in their N recovery, incorporating four times greater {sup 15}NO{sub 3}{sup −} than {sup 15}NH{sub 4}{sup +}, suggesting deposition rich in nitrate will impact them more. Overall, these findings show that despite the deposition rates being extreme in statistical terms, biologically they do not exceed the capacity of tundra to sequester pollutant N during the growing season. Therefore, current and future extreme events

  13. A Hierarchical Relationship between CME Properties and the Fluence Spectral Index of Large Solar Energetic Particle Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopalswamy, N.; Yashiro, Seiji; Thakur, Neeharika; Makela, Pertti; Xie, Hong; Akiyama, Sachiko

    2017-01-01

    We report on a hierarchical relationship found between properties of white-light coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and the fluence spectral indices of the associated Large Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) Events. We consider 74 large SEP events from the western hemisphere in solar cycles 23 and 24 by multiple spacecraft (SAMPEX, GOES, and STEREO). The associated CMEs are observed by SOHO. We find that CMEs with high initial acceleration are associated with SEP events with the hardest fluence spectra, while those with lowest initial acceleration have SEP events with the softest fluence spectra; CMEs with intermediate initial acceleration result in SEP events with moderately hard fluence spectra. Impulsive acceleration leading to high CME speeds close to the Sun results in shock formation close to the Sun, where the ambient magnetic field and density are high and the particles are energized more efficiently. Slowly accelerating CMEs drive shocks at large distances from the Sun, where the magnetic field and density have fallen off significantly, reducing the efficiency of shock acceleration. These opposite extremes are represented by ground level enhancement (GLE) events that have high speeds early on (high initial acceleration) and the SEP events associated with CMEs from quiescent filament region that have low early speeds (low initial acceleration). This finding strongly supports the idea that CME-driven shocks accelerate SEPs and the heliocentric distance where the acceleration takes place decides the hardness of the SEP fluence spectrum.

  14. Tree-ring responses to extreme climate events as benchmarks for terrestrial dynamic vegetation models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Rammig

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Climate extremes can trigger exceptional responses in terrestrial ecosystems, for instance by altering growth or mortality rates. Effects of this kind are often manifested in reductions of the local net primary production (NPP. Investigating a set of European long-term data on annual radial tree growth confirms this pattern: we find that 53% of tree ring width (TRW indices are below one standard deviation, and up to 16% of the TRW values are below two standard deviations in years with extremely high temperatures and low precipitation. Based on these findings we investigate if climate driven patterns in long-term tree growth data may serve as benchmarks for state-of-the-art dynamic vegetation models such as LPJmL. The model simulates NPP but not explicitly the radial tree ring growth, hence requiring a generic method to ensure an objective comparison. Here we propose an analysis scheme that quantifies the coincidence rate of climate extremes with some biotic responses (here TRW or simulated NPP. We find that the reduction in tree-ring width during drought extremes is lower than the corresponding reduction of simulated NPP. We identify ten extreme years during the 20th century in which both, model and measurements indicate high coincidence rates across Europe. However, we detect substantial regional differences in simulated and observed responses to extreme events. One explanation for this discrepancy could be that the tree-ring data have preferentially been sampled at more climatically stressed sites. The model-data difference is amplified by the fact that dynamic vegetation models are designed to simulate mean ecosystem responses at landscape or regional scale. However, we find that both model-data and measurements display carry-over effects from the previous year. We conclude that using radial tree growth is a good basis for generic model-benchmarks if the data are analyzed by scale-free measures such as coincidence analysis. Our study shows

  15. Spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and attribution of extreme regional low temperature event

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    封泰晨; 张珂铨; 苏海晶; 王晓娟; 龚志强; 张文煜

    2015-01-01

    Based on an objective identification technique for regional low temperature event (OITRLTE), the daily minimum temperature in China has been detected from 1960 to 2013. During this period, there were 60 regional extreme low temperature events (ERLTEs), which are included in the 690 regional low temperature events (RLTEs). The 60 ERLTEs are analyzed in this paper. The results show that in the last 50 years, the intensity of the ERLTEs has become weak;the number of lasted days has decreased;and, the affected area has become small. However, that situation has changed in this century. In terms of spatial distribution, the high intensity regions are mainly in Northern China while the high frequency regions concentrate in Central and Eastern China. According to the affected area of each event, the 60 ERLTEs are classified into six types. The atmospheric circulation background fields which correspond to these types are also analyzed. The results show that, influenced by stronger blocking highs of Ural and Lake Baikal, as well as stronger southward polar vortex and East Asia major trough at 500-hPa geopotential height, cold air from high latitudes is guided to move southward and abnormal northerly winds at 850 hPa makes the cold air blow into China along diverse paths, thereby forming different types of regional extreme low temperatures in winter.

  16. Investigation of Meteorological Extreme Events in the North-East of Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Kouzegaran

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Over the past hundred years, human activity has significantly altered the atmosphere and increase of concentration of greenhouse gases lead to warm the earth's surface. This global warming leads to change of climatic extreme index and increases the intensity and frequency of occurrence of extreme climate events. Investigation of extreme values for planning and policy for the agricultural sector and water resource management is important.In this study, a comprehensive review of extreme indices of temperature and precipitation are discussed. This paper aims to investigate extreme temperature and precipitation indices defined in accordance with CCL, and the study of other climatic parameters in the North East of Iran. Materials and Methods: In this research, statistics and data of some stations in the North East of Iran during the period 1992-2012 were used. To evaluate the extreme climate indices trend, 27 indices of rainfall and temperature, were defined by the ETCCDMI. They were calculated by RClimdex software. In this software, prior to the index calculation, data by quality control software became quantitative and incorrect data were controlled and outlier data were examined. The indices were calculated by daily data. 11 rainfall and 16 temperature indices were calculated by this software.The target of the ETCCDMI process is to delineate a standardized set of indices allowing for comparison across regions. These extreme indices were classified in five categories which included the percentile-based extreme indices, the absolute extreme indices, the threshold extreme indices, the periodic extreme indices, and the other indices. They were estimated at the 0.05 significant levels. The Mann-Kendall test was used to investigate the climatic parameters, maximum relative humidity, sunshine duration and maximum wind speed. Results and Discussion: Thermal analysis results are consistent with warming patterns, and they have showed that hot

  17. Non-parametric frequency analysis of extreme values for integrated disaster management considering probable maximum events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takara, K. T.

    2015-12-01

    This paper describes a non-parametric frequency analysis method for hydrological extreme-value samples with a size larger than 100, verifying the estimation accuracy with a computer intensive statistics (CIS) resampling such as the bootstrap. Probable maximum values are also incorporated into the analysis for extreme events larger than a design level of flood control. Traditional parametric frequency analysis methods of extreme values include the following steps: Step 1: Collecting and checking extreme-value data; Step 2: Enumerating probability distributions that would be fitted well to the data; Step 3: Parameter estimation; Step 4: Testing goodness of fit; Step 5: Checking the variability of quantile (T-year event) estimates by the jackknife resampling method; and Step_6: Selection of the best distribution (final model). The non-parametric method (NPM) proposed here can skip Steps 2, 3, 4 and 6. Comparing traditional parameter methods (PM) with the NPM, this paper shows that PM often underestimates 100-year quantiles for annual maximum rainfall samples with records of more than 100 years. Overestimation examples are also demonstrated. The bootstrap resampling can do bias correction for the NPM and can also give the estimation accuracy as the bootstrap standard error. This NPM has advantages to avoid various difficulties in above-mentioned steps in the traditional PM. Probable maximum events are also incorporated into the NPM as an upper bound of the hydrological variable. Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and probable maximum flood (PMF) can be a new parameter value combined with the NPM. An idea how to incorporate these values into frequency analysis is proposed for better management of disasters that exceed the design level. The idea stimulates more integrated approach by geoscientists and statisticians as well as encourages practitioners to consider the worst cases of disasters in their disaster management planning and practices.

  18. Large-scale Agroecosytem's Resiliency to Extreme Hydrometeorological and Climate Extreme Events in the Missouri River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munoz-Arriola, F.; Smith, K.; Corzo, G.; Chacon, J.; Carrillo-Cruz, C.

    2015-12-01

    A major challenge for water, energy and food security relies on the capability of agroecosyststems and ecosystems to adapt to a changing climate and land use changes. The interdependency of these forcings, understood through our ability to monitor and model processes across scales, indicate the "depth" of their impact on agroecosystems and ecosystems, and consequently our ability to predict the system's ability to return to a "normal" state. We are particularly interested in explore two questions: (1) how hydrometeorological and climate extreme events (HCEs) affect sub-seasonal to interannual changes in evapotranspiration and soil moisture? And (2) how agroecosystems recover from the effect of such events. To address those questions we use the land surface hydrologic Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer-Leaf Area Index (MODIS-LAI) over two time spans (1950-2013 using a seasonal fixed LAI cycle) and 2001-2013 (an 8-day MODIS-LAI). VIC is forced by daily/16th degree resolution precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature, and wind speed. In this large-scale experiment, resiliency is defined by the capacity of a particular agroecosystem, represented by a grid cell's ET, SM, and LAI to return to a historical average. This broad, yet simplistic definition will contribute to identify the possible components and their scales involved in agroecosystems and ecosystems capacity to adapt to the incidence of HCEs and technologies used to intensify agriculture and diversify their use for food and energy production. Preliminary results show that dynamical changes in land use, tracked by MODIS data, require larger time spans to address properly the influence of technologic improvements in crop production as well as the competition for land for biofuel vs. food production. On the other hand, fixed seasonal changes in land use allow us just to identify hydrologic changes mainly due to climate variability.

  19. A Comparison of Solar Energetic Particle Events with 1 AU Magnetic Field Connections to Solar Coronal Holes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahler, Stephen W.; Arge, C. N.; Akiyama, S.; Gopalswamy, N.

    2012-05-01

    The observed properties of solar energetic particle (SEP) events are known to depend on the source locations and speeds of their associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs). However, the CME characteristics cannot account for a great deal of the variability in SEP event intensities and time scales. It has long been suspected that the presence of coronal holes (CHs) near the CMEs or near the 1 AU magnetic footpoints may be an important factor in SEP events. We use a group of E 20 MeV SEP events with origins near solar central meridian to look for possible CH effects. The CH connections from 1 AU are determined from the 4-day forecast maps based on Mount Wilson Observatory and the National Solar Observatory synoptic magnetic field maps and the Wang-Sheeley-Arge model of solar wind propagation. The observed in situ magnetic field polarities and solar wind speeds at SEP event onsets test the forecast accuracies to select the best SEP/CH connection events for analysis. The SEP event properties are then compared with the relative locations and separations of the CMEs and the 1 AU footpoints to determine whether and how the CHs may affect SEP events.

  20. Slowly varying component of extreme ultraviolet solar radiation and its relation to solar radio radiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, R. D.; Neupert, W. M.

    1974-01-01

    A study of the correlations between solar EUV line fluxes and solar radio fluxes has been carried out. A calibration for the Goddard Space Flight Center EUV spectrum is suggested. The results are used to obtain an equation for the absolute EUV flux for several lines in the 150- to 400-A region and the total flux of 81 intense lines in the region, the 2800-MHz radio flux being used as independent variable.

  1. A Solar Coronal Jet Event Triggers A Coronal Mass Ejection

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Jiajia; Shen, Chenglong; Liu, Kai; Pan, Zonghao; Wang, S

    2015-01-01

    We present the multi-point and multi-wavelength observation and analysis on a solar coronal jet and coronal mass ejection (CME) event in this paper. Employing the GCS model, we obtained the real (three-dimensional) heliocentric distance and direction of the CME and found it propagate in a high speed over 1000 km/s . The jet erupted before and shared the same source region with the CME. The temporal and spacial relation- ship between them guide us the possibility that the jet triggered the CME and became its core. This scenario could promisingly enrich our understanding on the triggering mechanism of coronal mass ejections and their relations with coronal large-scale jets. On the other hand, the magnetic field configuration of the source region observed by the SDO/HMI instrument and the off- limb inverse Y-shaped configuration observed by SDO/AIA 171 A passband, together provide the first detailed observation on the three-dimensional reconnection process of large-scale jets as simulated in Pariat et al. 2009. ...

  2. Spatial patterns of sediment dynamics within a medium-sized watershed over an extreme storm event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Peng; Zhang, Zhirou

    2016-08-01

    In this study, we quantified spatial patterns of sediment dynamics in a watershed of 311 km2 over an extreme storm event using watershed modeling and statistical analyses. First, we calibrated a watershed model, Dynamic Watershed Simulation Model (DWSM) by comparing the predicted with calculated hydrograph and sedigraph at the outlet for this event. Then we predicted values of event runoff volume (V), peak flow (Qpeak), and two types of event sediment yields for lumped morphological units that contain 42 overland elements and 21 channel segments within the study watershed. Two overland elements and the connected channel segment form a first-order subwatershed, several of which constitute a larger nested subwatershed. Next we examined (i) the relationships between these variables and area (A), precipitation (P), mean slope (S), soil erodibility factor, and percent of crop and pasture lands for all overland elements (i.e., the small spatial scale, SSS), and (ii) those between sediment yield, Qpeak, A, P, and event runoff depth (h) for the first-order and nested subwatersheds along two main creeks of the study watershed (i.e., the larger spatial scales, LSS). We found that at the SSS, sediment yield was nonlinearly well related to A and P, but not Qpeak and h; whereas at the LSS, linear relationships between sediment yield and Qpeak existed, so did the Qpeak-A, and Qpeak-P relationships. This linearity suggests the increased connectivity from the SSS to LSS, which was caused by ignorance of channel processes within overland elements. It also implies that sediment was transported at capacity during the extreme event. So controlling sediment supply from the most erodible overland elements may not efficiently reduce the downstream sediment load.

  3. Mitigation Efforts in Rural Communities after Extreme Weather Events - New Insights for Stakeholders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vesela Radovic

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Global climate changes are undoubtedly course of the increasing frequency of extreme whether events all over the world. Rural communities belong to the “group of victims” which is greatly jeopardized by consequences of the extreme weather events. Having in mind limited capacities for the preparedness, response and recovery after any kind of emergency it is clear that the rural community mostly needs external help. That is the point of this paper: to make new insights about this important issue, and to discuss: “how to provide adequate help in the rural communities and build adequate adaptive and response capacities”. In many countries agriculture and rural tourism are main economic activities in the rural area and its interruption could be the obstacle for implementation of sustainable development. Various stakeholders omit to be aware of this issue. Emergency agencies and many others have to make the comprehensive plan for rural communities (having in mind all its limitations. In the Republic of Serbia rural communities do not have enough capacity for recovery and usually it takes many years after an event. A minimum of an economic recovery standard has to be created for the rural community. It also has to be a specific contingency plan in the future reorganizations of emergency services in Serbia and at the Western Balkan region. It should be one of the priority issues for stakeholders in the near future in disaster risk reduction. Providing equal access to resources to population in the rural community after the extreme weather event has to be the priority task for policy makers and all actors in emergency management.

  4. Role of Anomalous States of Upper Tropospheric Circulation on Extremely Dry and Wet Summer Monsoon Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmad, S.; Koike, T.; Nishii, K.; Shrestha, M.

    2011-12-01

    Seasonal changes in wind pattern, monsoon, sometimes result in severe droughts and intense flooding in many parts of the world including South Asian countries like Pakistan. The livelihood of a vast population in Pakistan depends on agriculture and land use is strongly influenced by water-based ecosystems that depend on the monsoon rains. Furthermore, climate change studies undertaken so far reveal that action is essential in order to prevent long term damage to water cycle and thus of great concern to the community and stakeholders. Pakistan Summer Monsoon (PSM) is affected by both the disturbances from the tropical and the extratropical regions; however there is lack of understanding of physical mechanisms of PSM compared to other regional studies i.e. Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and South-East Asian Monsoon (SEAM). In our study, we applied heat and vorticity budgets, and wave train analysis to reveal the mechanisms of the extremely dry and wet PSM events associated with the anomalous upper tropospheric conditions. We found that the extremely dry (wet) PSM events were closely related with the anomalous cyclonic (anticyclonic) upper-tropospheric circulation around northwest of Pakistan, and mid-upper tropospheric cooling (warming) anomaly around Pakistan and to its north/northwest. We also found in addition to Rossby wave response due to the suppressed (enhanced) convective activities around monsoon regions, the midlatitude wave energy propagation emanating around cyclonic/anticyclonic anomaly around northwestern Atlantic, northeastern Atlantic, Europe or Mediterranean regions induced/reinforced/maintained the anomalous upper tropospheric cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation around northwest of Pakistan during extremely dry (wet) PSM events. Therefore, devastating drought (flood) events over the PSM region resulting from weak (strong) convection anomalies are induced by both the tropical and extratropical processes.

  5. Extreme Ionospheric Gradients Observed in South Korea during the Last Solar Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, S.; Choi, Y.; Kim, M.; Lee, J.

    2012-12-01

    Ground-Based Augmentation Systems (GBAS) support aircraft precision approach and landing by providing differential corrections for Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) pseudorange measurements and integrity information to aviation users within several tens of kilometers of GBAS-equipped airports. During the peak of the last solar cycle, extreme ionospheric gradients as large as 412 mm/km at high elevation and 360 mm/km at low elevation were observed in the United States. For a GBAS user at a 200-foot decision height (DH) for Category I precision approach, a spatial gradient of 412 mm/km could cause a residual range error of 8 meters. To predict the maximum position errors that GBAS users might suffer from these ionospheric threats, an ionospheric anomaly "threat model" for GBAS was developed in the Conterminous U.S (CONUS). The threat model issued to simulate worst-case ionospheric errors and develop mitigation strategies under ionospheric disturbances. Ionospheric conditions should be investigated for all regions where GBAS will be fielded in the future. We presents a method to identify ionospheric anomalies that can pose a potential integrity risk to GBAS users and details the study of extreme ionospheric gradients observed in South Korea during the last solar cycle. GPS dual-frequency code and carrier-phase measurements collected from a total of 74 GPS reference stations in South Korea were processed to observe ionospheric anomalies. Precise ionospheric delay estimates are obtained using the simplified truth processing method and ionospheric gradients are computed using the well-known "station pair method". Ionospheric threats can be modeled as a spatially linear semi-infinite wedge moving with constant speed in mid-latitude regions. A total of 22 dates during the last solar maximum period in 2000 - 2004 were investigated to identify ionospheric anomalies occurred in South Korea. Ten of the dates were the days previously chosen to construct the current

  6. Extreme climatic events: reducing ecological and social systems vulnerabilities; Evenements climatiques extremes: reduire les vulnerabilites des systemes ecologiques et sociaux

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Decamps, H.; Amatore, C.; Bach, J.F.; Baccelli, F.; Balian, R.; Carpentier, A.; Charnay, P.; Cuzin, F.; Davier, M.; Dercourt, J.; Dumas, C.; Encrenaz, P.; Jeannerod, M.; Kahane, J.P.; Meunier, B.; Rebut, P.H.; Salencon, J.; Spitz, E.; Suquet, P.; Taquet, P.; Valleron, A.J.; Yoccoz, J.C.; Chapron, J.Y.; Fanon, J.; Andre, J.C.; Auger, P.; Bourrelier, P.H.; Combes, C.; Derrida, B.; Laubier, L.; Laval, K.; Le Maho, Y.; Marsily, G. De; Petit, M.; Schmidt-Laine, C.; Birot, Y.; Peyron, J.L.; Seguin, B.; Barles, S.; Besancenot, J.P.; Michel-Kerjan, E.; Hallegatte, S.; Dumas, P.; Ancey, V.; Requier-Desjardins, M.; Ducharnes, A.; Ciais, P.; Peylin, P.; Kaniewski, D.; Van Campo, E.; Planton, S.; Manuguerra, J.C.; Le Bars, Y.; Lagadec, P.; Kessler, D.; Pontikis, C.; Nussbaum, R.

    2010-07-01

    The Earth has to face more and more devastating extreme events. Between 1970 and 2009, at the worldwide scale, the 25 most costly catastrophes all took place after 1987, and for more than half of them after 2001. Among these 25 catastrophes, 23 were linked to climate conditions. France was not spared: the December 1999 storms led to 88 deaths, deprived 3.5 million households of electricity and costed more than 9 billion euros. The 2003 heat wave led to about 15000 supernumerary deaths between August 1 and August 20. The recent Xynthia storm, with its flood barrier ruptures, provoked 53 deaths in addition to many other tragedies that took place in areas liable to flooding. In the present day context of climate change, we know that we must be prepared to even more dangerous events, sometimes unexpected before. These events can have amplified effects because of the urban development, the overpopulation of coastal areas and the anthropization of natural environments. They represent real 'poverty traps' for the poorest countries of the Earth. The anticipation need is real but is our country ready to answer it? Does it have a sufficient contribution to international actions aiming at reducing risks? Is his scientific information suitable? France is not less vulnerable than other countries. It must reinforce its prevention, its response and resilience capacities in the framework of integrated policies of catastrophes risk management as well as in the framework of climate change adaptation plans. This reinforcement supposes the development of vigilance systems with a better risk coverage and benefiting by the advances gained in the meteorology and health domains. It supposes a town and country planning allowing to improve the viability of ecological and social systems - in particular by protecting their diversity. Finally, this reinforcement requires inciting financial coverage solutions for catastrophes prevention and for their management once they have taken

  7. New Extreme Trans-Neptunian Objects: Towards a Super-Earth in the Outer Solar System

    CERN Document Server

    Sheppard, Scott S

    2016-01-01

    We are conducting a wide and deep survey for extreme distant solar system objects. Our goal is to understand the high perihelion objects Sedna and 2012 VP113 and determine if an unknown massive planet exists in the outer solar system. The discovery of new extreme objects from our survey of some 1080 square degrees of sky to over 24th magnitude in the r-band are reported. Two of the new objects, 2014 SR349 and 2013 FT28, are extreme detached trans-Neptunian objects, which have semi-major axes greater than 150 AU and perihelia well beyond Neptune (q>40 AU). Both new objects have orbits with arguments of perihelia within the range of the clustering of this angle seen in the other known extreme objects. One of these objects, 2014 SR349, has a longitude of perihelion similar to the other extreme objects, but 2013 FT28, which may have more significant Neptune interactions, is about 180 degrees away or anti-aligned in its longitude of perihelion. We also discovered the first outer Oort cloud object with a perihelion...

  8. Granularity and textural analysis as a proxy for extreme wave events in southeast coast of India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    C S Vijaya Lakshmi; P Srinivasan; S G N Murthy; Deshraj Trivedi; Rajesh R Nair

    2010-06-01

    Extreme wave events of 1000 and 1500 years (radiocarbon ages) have been recently reported in Mahabalipuram region, southeast coast of India. Subsequently, we carried out extensive sedimentological analysis in regions covering a total lateral coverage of 12 km with a new archeological site as the central portion of the study area. Twelve trenches in shore normal profiles exhibit landward thinning sequences as well as upward fining sequences confirming with the global signatures of extreme wave events. The sediment size ranges from fine-to-medium and moderately well sorted-to-well sorted, and exhibit positive skewness with platykurtic-to-leptokurtic nature. We now propose the abrupt winnowing or back and forth motion including unidirectional transport of these deposited sediments, which results in positive skewness. Textural analyses derived from scanning electron microscope studies (SEM) demonstrate the alteration produced, in the ilmenite mineral with vivid presence of pits and crescents with deformation observed on the surface due to extreme wave activities. This is further confirmed with the predominance of high-density mineral such as magnetite (5.2) and other heavy minerals in these deposits inferred the high-intensity of the reworking process of the beach shelf sediments.

  9. An extreme internal solitary wave event observed in the northern South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Xiaodong; Chen, Zhaohui; Zhao, Wei; Zhang, Zhiwei; Zhou, Chun; Yang, Qingxuan; Tian, Jiwei

    2016-07-01

    With characteristics of large amplitude and strong current, internal solitary wave (ISW) is a major hazard to marine engineering and submarine navigation; it also has significant impacts on marine ecosystems and fishery activity. Among the world oceans, ISWs are particular active in the northern South China Sea (SCS). In this spirit, the SCS Internal Wave Experiment has been conducted since March 2010 using subsurface mooring array. Here, we report an extreme ISW captured on 4 December 2013 with a maximum amplitude of 240 m and a peak westward current velocity of 2.55 m/s. To the authors’ best knowledge, this is the strongest ISW of the world oceans on record. Full-depth measurements also revealed notable impacts of the extreme ISW on deep-ocean currents and thermal structures. Concurrent mooring measurements near Batan Island showed that the powerful semidiurnal internal tide generation in the Luzon Strait was likely responsible for the occurrence of the extreme ISW event. Based on the HYCOM data-assimilation product, we speculate that the strong stratification around Batan Island related to the strengthening Kuroshio may have contributed to the formation of the extreme ISW.

  10. Extreme weather event in spring 2013 delayed breeding time of Great Tit and Blue Tit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glądalski, Michał; Bańbura, Mirosława; Kaliński, Adam; Markowski, Marcin; Skwarska, Joanna; Wawrzyniak, Jarosław; Zieliński, Piotr; Bańbura, Jerzy

    2014-12-01

    The impact of climatic changes on life cycles by re-scheduling the timing of reproduction is an important topic in studies of biodiversity. Global warming causes and will probably cause in the future not only raising temperatures but also an increasing frequency of extreme weather events. In 2013, the winter in central and north Europe ended late, with low temperatures and long-retained snow cover--this extreme weather phenomenon acted in opposition to the increasing temperature trend. In 2013, thermal conditions measured by the warmth sum in the period 15 March–15 April, a critical time for early breeding passerines, went far beyond the range of the warmth sums for at least 40 preceding years. Regardless of what was the reason for the extreme early spring 2013 and assuming that there is a potential for more atypical years because of climate change, we should look closely at every extreme phenomenon and its consequences for the phenology of organisms. In this paper, we report that the prolonged occurrence of winter conditions during the time that is crucial for Blue Tit (Cyanistes caeruleus) and Great Tit (Parus major) reproduction caused a substantial delay in the onset of egg laying in comparison with typical springs.

  11. Extreme and superextreme events in a loss-modulated CO2 laser: Nonlinear resonance route and precursors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonatto, Cristian; Endler, Antonio

    2017-07-01

    We investigate the occurrence of extreme and rare events, i.e., giant and rare light pulses, in a periodically modulated CO2 laser model. Due to nonlinear resonant processes, we show a scenario of interaction between chaotic bands of different orders, which may lead to the formation of extreme and rare events. We identify a crisis line in the modulation parameter space, and we show that, when the modulation amplitude increases, remaining in the vicinity of the crisis, some statistical properties of the laser pulses, such as the average and dispersion of amplitudes, do not change much, whereas the amplitude of extreme events grows enormously, giving rise to extreme events with much larger deviations than usually reported, with a significant probability of occurrence, i.e., with a long-tailed non-Gaussian distribution. We identify recurrent regular patterns, i.e., precursors, that anticipate the emergence of extreme and rare events, and we associate these regular patterns with unstable periodic orbits embedded in a chaotic attractor. We show that the precursors may or may not lead to the emergence of extreme events. Thus, we compute the probability of success or failure (false alarm) in the prediction of the extreme events, once a precursor is identified in the deterministic time series. We show that this probability depends on the accuracy with which the precursor is identified in the laser intensity time series.

  12. Solar and thermal radiative effects during the 2011 extreme desert dust episode over Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valenzuela, A.; Costa, M. J.; Guerrero-Rascado, J. L.; Bortoli, D.; Olmo, F. J.

    2017-01-01

    This paper analyses the influence of the extreme Saharan desert dust (DD) event on shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiation at the EARLINET/AERONET Évora station (Southern Portugal) from 4 up to 7 April 2011. There was also some cloud occurrence in the period. In this context, it is essential to quantify the effect of cloud presence on aerosol radiative forcing. A radiative transfer model was initialized with aerosol optical properties, cloud vertical properties and meteorological atmospheric vertical profiles. The intercomparison between the instantaneous TOA shortwave and longwave fluxes derived using CERES and those calculated using SBDART, which was fed with aerosol extinction coefficients derived from the CALIPSO and lidar-PAOLI observations, varying OPAC dataset parameters, was reasonably acceptable within the standard deviations. The dust aerosol type that yields the best fit was found to be the mineral accumulation mode. Therefore, SBDART model constrained with the CERES observations can be used to reliably determine aerosol radiative forcing and heating rates. Aerosol radiative forcings and heating rates were derived in the SW (ARFSw, AHRSw) and LW (ARFLw, AHRLw) spectral ranges, considering a cloud-aerosol free reference atmosphere. We found that AOD at 440 nm increased by a factor of 5 on 6 April with respect to the lower dust load on 4 April. It was responsible by a strong cooling radiative effect pointed out by the ARFSw value (-99 W/m2 for a solar zenith angle of 60°) offset by a warming radiative effect according to ARFLw value (+21.9 W/m2) at the surface. Overall, about 24% and 12% of the dust solar radiative cooling effect is compensated by its longwave warming effect at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere, respectively. Hence, larger aerosol loads could enhance the response between the absorption and re-emission processes increasing the ARFLw with respect to those associated with moderate and low aerosol loads. The unprecedented

  13. Ecological Responses to Extreme Flooding Events: A Case Study with a Reintroduced Bird.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soriano-Redondo, Andrea; Bearhop, Stuart; Cleasby, Ian R; Lock, Leigh; Votier, Stephen C; Hilton, Geoff M

    2016-06-27

    In recent years numerous studies have documented the effects of a changing climate on the world's biodiversity. Although extreme weather events are predicted to increase in frequency and intensity and are challenging to organisms, there are few quantitative observations on the survival, behaviour and energy expenditure of animals during such events. We provide the first data on activity and energy expenditure of birds, Eurasian cranes Grus grus, during the winter of 2013-14, which saw the most severe floods in SW England in over 200 years. We fitted 23 cranes with telemetry devices and used remote sensing data to model flood dynamics during three consecutive winters (2012-2015). Our results show that during the acute phase of the 2013-14 floods, potential feeding areas decreased dramatically and cranes restricted their activity to a small partially unflooded area. They also increased energy expenditure (+15%) as they increased their foraging activity and reduced resting time. Survival did not decline in 2013-14, indicating that even though extreme climatic events strongly affected time-energy budgets, behavioural plasticity alleviated any potential impact on fitness. However under climate change scenarios such challenges may not be sustainable over longer periods and potentially could increase species vulnerability.

  14. Preface: Impacts of extreme climate events and disturbances on carbon dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Jingfeng; Liu, Shuguang; Stoy, Paul C.

    2016-06-01

    The impacts of extreme climate events and disturbances (ECE&D) on the carbon cycle have received growing attention in recent years. This special issue showcases a collection of recent advances in understanding the impacts of ECE&D on carbon cycling. Notable advances include quantifying how harvesting activities impact forest structure, carbon pool dynamics, and recovery processes; observed drastic increases of the concentrations of dissolved organic carbon and dissolved methane in thermokarst lakes in western Siberia during a summer warming event; disentangling the roles of herbivores and fire on forest carbon dioxide flux; direct and indirect impacts of fire on the global carbon balance; and improved atmospheric inversion of regional carbon sources and sinks by incorporating disturbances. Combined, studies herein indicate several major research needs. First, disturbances and extreme events can interact with one another, and it is important to understand their overall impacts and also disentangle their effects on the carbon cycle. Second, current ecosystem models are not skillful enough to correctly simulate the underlying processes and impacts of ECE&D (e.g., tree mortality and carbon consequences). Third, benchmark data characterizing the timing, location, type, and magnitude of disturbances must be systematically created to improve our ability to quantify carbon dynamics over large areas. Finally, improving the representation of ECE&D in regional climate/earth system models and accounting for the resulting feedbacks to climate are essential for understanding the interactions between climate and ecosystem dynamics.

  15. Recovery trends of Scrobicularia plana populations after restoration measures, affected by extreme climate events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdelhos, T; Cardoso, P G; Dolbeth, M; Pardal, M A

    2014-07-01

    The Mondego estuary (Portugal) went through different ecological scenarios over the last decades. An eutrophication process led to a decline in the ecosystem quality. The ensuing restoration plan resulted into a gradual ecological recovery, which was impaired by the occurrence of successive extreme climate events that affected dynamics and productivity of key species. In this study we assess the response of the bivalve Scrobicularia plana to the impacts of these events in a recovery scenario, by comparing populations in two different intertidal habitats: a seagrass bed and a sandflat area. As a general tendency, S. plana, which was negatively affected by eutrophication, responded positively to restoration. However, the occurrence of extreme climate events seemed to affect recruitment success, biomass and production, impairing the recovery process. In the seagrass bed, S. plana maintained a stable and structured population, while in the sandflat area recovery clearly reverted into a decline, mainly concerning biomass and production values. This sequence of multiple stressors might have reduced S. plana resilience to further impacts and therefore, understanding the behavior of biological populations following restoration initiatives requires acknowledgement that some changes may not be easily reversible.

  16. Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Singh, Deepti; Mankin, Justin S; Horton, Daniel E; Swain, Daniel L; Touma, Danielle; Charland, Allison; Liu, Yunjie; Haugen, Matz; Tsiang, Michael; Rajaratnam, Bala

    2017-05-09

    Efforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global warming on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find extremely high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent.

  17. The differential effects of increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme events on coral populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabina, Nicholas S; Baskett, Marissa L; Gross, Kevin

    2015-09-01

    Extreme events, which have profound ecological consequences, are changing in both frequency and magnitude with climate change. Because extreme temperatures induce coral bleaching, we can explore the relative impacts of changes in frequency and magnitude of high temperature events on coral reefs. Here, we combined climate projections and a dynamic population model to determine how changing bleaching regimes influence coral persistence. We additionally explored how coral traits and competition with macroalgae mediate changes in bleaching regimes. Our results predict that severe bleaching events reduce coral persistence more than frequent bleaching. Corals with low adult mortality and high growth rates are successful when bleaching is mild, but bleaching resistance is necessary to persist when bleaching is severe, regardless of frequency. The existence of macroalgae-dominated stable states reduces coral persistence and changes the relative importance of coral traits. Building on previous studies, our results predict that management efforts may need to prioritize protection of "weaker" corals with high adult mortality when bleaching is mild, and protection of "stronger" corals with high bleaching resistance when bleaching is severe. In summary, future reef projections and conservation targets depend on both local bleaching regimes and biodiversity.

  18. Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Singh, Deepti; Mankin, Justin S.; Horton, Daniel E.; Swain, Daniel L.; Touma, Danielle; Charland, Allison; Liu, Yunjie; Haugen, Matz; Tsiang, Michael; Rajaratnam, Bala

    2017-05-01

    Efforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global warming on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find extremely high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent.

  19. Application of a Coupled WRF-Hydro Model for Extreme Flood Events in the Mediterranean Basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fredj, Erick; Givati, Amir

    2015-04-01

    More accurate simulation of precipitation and streamflow is a challenge that can be addressed by using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) in conjunction with the hydrological model coupling extension package (WRF-Hydro).This is demonstrated for the country of Israel and surrounding regions. Simulations from the coupled WRF/WRF-Hydro system were verified against measurements from rain gauges and hydrometric stations in the domain for the 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 winters (wet seasons). These periods were characterized by many punctuated hydrometeorological and hydroclimatic events, including both severe drought and extreme floods events. The WRF model simulations were initialized with 0.5 degree NOAA/NCEP GFS model data. The model domain was set up with 3 domains, up to 3km grid spacing resolution. The model configuration used here constitutes a fully distributed, 3-dimensional, variably-saturated surface and subsurface flow model. Application of terrain routing and, subsequently, channel and reservoir routing functions, to the uni-dimensional NOAA land surface model was motivated by the need to account for increased complexity in land surface states and fluxes and to provide a more physically-realistic conceptualization of terrestrial hydrologic processes. The simulation results indicated a good agreement with actual peak discharges for extreme flood events and for full hydrographs. Specifically the coupled WRF/WRF-Hydro model as configured in this study shows improvement in simulated precipitation over one way WRF precipitation simulations. The correlation between the observed and the simulated precipitation using the fully coupled WRF/WRF-Hydro system was higher than the standalone WRF model, especially for convective precipitation events that affect arid regions in the domain. The results suggest that the coupled WRF/WRF-Hydro system has potential for flood forecasting and flood warning purposes at 0-72 hour lead times for large cool season storm

  20. Forecasting extreme events in collective dynamics: an analytic signal approach to detecting discrete scale invariance

    CERN Document Server

    Viswanathan, G M

    2006-01-01

    A challenging problem in physics concerns the possibility of forecasting rare but extreme phenomena such as large earthquakes, financial market crashes, and material rupture. A promising line of research involves the early detection of precursory log-periodic oscillations to help forecast extreme events in collective phenomena where discrete scale invariance plays an important role. Here I investigate two distinct approaches towards the general problem of how to detect log-periodic oscillations in arbitrary time series without prior knowledge of the location of the moveable singularity. I first show that the problem has a definite solution in Fourier space, however the technique involved requires an unrealistically large signal to noise ratio. I then show that the quadrature signal obtained via analytic continuation onto the imaginary axis, using the Hilbert transform, necessarily retains the log-periodicities found in the original signal. This finding allows the development of a new method of detecting log-p...

  1. LISA extreme-mass-ratio inspiral events as probes of the black hole mass function

    CERN Document Server

    Gair, Jonathan R; Volonteri, Marta

    2010-01-01

    One of the sources of gravitational waves for the proposed space-based gravitational wave detector, the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA), are the inspirals of compact objects into supermassive black holes in the centres of galaxies - extreme-mass-ratio inspirals (EMRIs). Using LISA observations, we will be able to measure the parameters of each EMRI system detected to very high precision. However, the statistics of the set of EMRI events observed by LISA will be more important in constraining astrophysical models than extremely precise measurements for individual systems. The black holes to which LISA is most sensitive are in a mass range that is difficult to probe using other techniques, so LISA provides an almost unique window onto these objects. In this paper we explore, using Bayesian techniques, the constraints that LISA EMRI observations can place on the mass function of black holes at low redshift. We describe a general framework for approaching inference of this type --- using multiple observ...

  2. Uncertainty assessment in the prediction of extreme rainfall events: an example from the central Spanish Pyrenees

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Ruiz, J. M.; Arnáez, J.; White, S. M.; Lorente, A.; Beguería, S.

    2000-04-01

    Extreme rainfall events occur frequently in the central Pyrenees, but they are responsible for mass movements and short, very intense erosion periods, accompanied at times by loss of human life and high costs of infrastructure. This paper tries to assess the existence of patterns in the spatial distribution of maximum precipitation. The calculation of return periods of the most intense rainfall demonstrates that in the Pyrenees it exhibits an erratic spatial and temporal distribution and can be extremely localized. In the case of precipitation between 150 and 200 mm in 24 h, some influence from the surrounding relief has been found, but this is not the case for precipitation exceeding 200 mm, characterized by the absence of patterns governing their spatial distribution. Geomorphological approaches are, therefore, the only way for assessing the areas more subject to hydromorphological risks.

  3. Extreme precipitation events in the Iberian Peninsula and its association with Atmospheric Rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, Alexandre M.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Trigo, Ricardo M.

    2015-04-01

    Extreme precipitation events in the Iberian Peninsula during the winter half of the year have major socio-economic impacts associated with floods, landslides, extensive property damage and life losses. In recent years, a number of works have shed new light on the role played by Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) in the occurrence of extreme precipitation events in both Europe and USA. ARs are relatively narrow regions of concentrated WV responsible for horizontal transport in the lower atmosphere corresponding to the core section of the broader warm conveyor belt occurring over the oceans along the warm sector of extra-tropical cyclones. Over the North Atlantic ARs are usually W-E oriented steered by pre-frontal low level jets along the trailing cold front and subsequently feed the precipitation in the extra-tropical cyclones. It was shown that more than 90% of the meridional WV transport in the mid-latitudes occurs in the AR, although they cover less than 10% of the area of the globe. The large amount of WV that is transported can lead to heavy precipitation and floods. An automated ARs detection algorithm is used for the North Atlantic Ocean Basin allowing the identification and a comprehensive characterization of the major AR events that affected the Iberian Peninsula over the 1948-2012 period. The extreme precipitation days in the Iberian Peninsula were assessed recently by us (Ramos et al., 2014) and their association (or not) with the occurrence of AR is analyzed in detail here. The extreme precipitation days are ranked by their magnitude and are obtained after considering 1) the area affected and 2) the precipitation intensity. Different rankings are presented for the entire Iberian Peninsula, Portugal and also for the six largest Iberian river basins (Minho, Duero, Tagus, Guadiana, Guadalquivir and Ebro) covering the 1950-2008 period (Ramos et al., 2014). Results show that the association between ARs and extreme precipitation days in the western domains (Portugal

  4. Impacts of extreme events of drought and flood on local communities of Amazon basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borma, L. D.; Roballo, S.; Zauner, M.; Nascimento, V. F.

    2013-05-01

    The analysis of drought events of 1997/98, 2005 and 2010 in terms of discharge anomalies in the Amazon region confirmed previous findings, such as: a) the influence of the El Niño in more than one hydrological year; b) the increase of the influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation of 1998, 2005 and 2010 drought events; c) the low levels of discharge observed in the 2010 drought are attributed to the association of discharge anomalies of the northern and southern tributaries of the Amazon river, and d) the 2010 drought lasted around 1 month (August to November) more than the other drought events analized here. The riverine communities located along the river banks of Solimões/Amazonas suit their economic activities to the oscillation of the water level. In general, low water periods favor the access to important sources of food such as fish and livestock, still allowing crop cultivation on fertile agricultural areas of the floodplain. Conversely, periods of drought increases the difficulties of transport and drinking water supply. During the high water, access to the main food supply (described above) are greatly hampered. However, the floods are recognized as an importance process of natural fertilization. Thus, despite the political, social and economic shortcomings, the local community has, since the pre-colonial period, learned to get the best of each season, providing local, regional and national markets with varzea products. During periods of extreme weather, however, the advantages of each season appear to be reduced, and the drawbacks increased. In fact, during flooding extremes, the access to primary sources of food is hampered by a long period of time and families find themselves forced to leave their homes, eventually losing them. Analysis of flow data to the extreme flooding of 2009, indicate a period of about 6 months of positive anomalies discharge (occurring mainly during high water). At the same time, Civil Defense data points to a

  5. Characteristics of extreme dust events observed over two urban areas in Iran

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abbas-Ali A Bidokhti; Maryam Gharaylou; Nafiseh Pegahfar; Samaneh Sabetghadam; Maryam Rezazadeh

    2016-03-01

    Determination of dust loading in the atmosphere is important not only from the public health point of view, but also for regional climate changes. The present study focuses on the characteristics of two major dust events for two urban areas in Iran, Kermanshah and Tehran, over the period of 4 years from 2006 to 2009. To detect extreme dust outbreaks, various datasets including synoptic data, dust concentration, reanalysis data and numerical results of WRF and HYSPLIT models were used. The weather maps demonstrate that for these events dusts are mainly generated when wind velocity is high and humidity islow in the lower troposphere and the region is under the influence of a thermal low. The event lasts until the atmospheric stability prevails and the surface wind speed weakens. The thermal low nature of the synoptic conditions of these major events is also responsible for deep boundary layer development with its thermals affecting the vertical dust flux over the region. Trajectory studies show that the dust events originated from deserts in Iraq and Syria and transported towards Iran. The main distinction between the two types of mobilizations seems to affect the dust concentrations in the Tehran urban area.

  6. Intensity changes in future extreme precipitation: A statistical event-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manola, Iris; van den Hurk, Bart; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

    2017-04-01

    Short-lived precipitation extremes are often responsible for hazards in urban and rural environments with economic and environmental consequences. The precipitation intensity is expected to increase about 7% per degree of warming, according to the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. However, the observations often show a much stronger increase in the sub-daily values. In particular, the behavior of the hourly summer precipitation from radar observations with the dew point temperature (the Pi-Td relation) for the Netherlands suggests that for moderate to warm days the intensification of the precipitation can be even higher than 21% per degree of warming, that is 3 times higher than the expected CC relation. The rate of change depends on the initial precipitation intensity, as low percentiles increase with a rate below CC, the medium percentiles with 2CC and the moderate-high and high percentiles with 3CC. This non-linear statistical Pi-Td relation is suggested to be used as a delta-transformation to project how a historic extreme precipitation event would intensify under future, warmer conditions. Here, the Pi-Td relation is applied over a selected historic extreme precipitation event to 'up-scale' its intensity to warmer conditions. Additionally, the selected historic event is simulated in the high-resolution, convective-permitting weather model Harmonie. The initial and boundary conditions are alternated to represent future conditions. The comparison between the statistical and the numerical method of projecting the historic event to future conditions showed comparable intensity changes, which depending on the initial percentile intensity, range from below CC to a 3CC rate of change per degree of warming. The model tends to overestimate the future intensities for the low- and the very high percentiles and the clouds are somewhat displaced, due to small wind and convection changes. The total spatial cloud coverage in the model remains, as also in the statistical

  7. Modernizing Distribution System Restoration to Achieve Grid Resiliency Against Extreme Weather Events: An Integrated Solution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Chen; Wang, Jianhui; Ton, Dan

    2017-07-01

    Recent severe power outages caused by extreme weather hazards have highlighted the importance and urgency of improving the resilience of the electric power grid. As the distribution grids still remain vulnerable to natural disasters, the power industry has focused on methods of restoring distribution systems after disasters in an effective and quick manner. The current distribution system restoration practice for utilities is mainly based on predetermined priorities and tends to be inefficient and suboptimal, and the lack of situational awareness after the hazard significantly delays the restoration process. As a result, customers may experience an extended blackout, which causes large economic loss. On the other hand, the emerging advanced devices and technologies enabled through grid modernization efforts have the potential to improve the distribution system restoration strategy. However, utilizing these resources to aid the utilities in better distribution system restoration decision-making in response to extreme weather events is a challenging task. Therefore, this paper proposes an integrated solution: a distribution system restoration decision support tool designed by leveraging resources developed for grid modernization. We first review the current distribution restoration practice and discuss why it is inadequate in response to extreme weather events. Then we describe how the grid modernization efforts could benefit distribution system restoration, and we propose an integrated solution in the form of a decision support tool to achieve the goal. The advantages of the solution include improving situational awareness of the system damage status and facilitating survivability for customers. The paper provides a comprehensive review of how the existing methodologies in the literature could be leveraged to achieve the key advantages. The benefits of the developed system restoration decision support tool include the optimal and efficient allocation of repair

  8. Extreme Events in the tropics - Hurricane Manuel and La Pintada Landslide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramirez-Herrera, M. T.; Gaidzik, K.

    2016-12-01

    Extreme events in regions of humid-warm tropical climate are repeatedly causing loss of life and economic devastation. Deadly landslides are commonly triggered by extreme storms. Many of them originate on mountain slopes along river systems in areas often populated, increasing the risk to human settlements, theirs activities, and the local envrionment. Frequently hit by hurricanes and tropical cyclones the mountainous areas of Guerrero in southern Mexico are particularly prone to landslide hazard. On 16 September 2013 a huge landslide caused 71 fatalities and destroyed a large part of the La Pintada village. The landslide initiated after extreme rainfall caused by Hurricane Manuel. We performed a post-landslide field survey, applied remote sensing techniques using LIDAR DEM and images, digital models derived from Structure from Motion (SfM), satellite images, orthophotomaps, eyewitness accounts, geotechnical laboratory tests of slope material, and slope stability analysis to examine physical characteristics and processes that influenced the failure of La Pintada landslide. Our results indicate that anomalous precipitation producing oversaturation of soil was the direct factor that initiated the deep-sited La Pintada landslide, in an area where big landslides have occurred in the past. We hypothesized that climate change has contributed to the short recurrence period of extreme meteorological events that trigger great landslides in this tropical area. The lack of high and dense vegetation on La Pintada slope, resulting in increased soil erosion, acted as a preparatory causal factor for landsliding, making the slope more prone to mass wasting. It is likely that human activity (including deforestation activities) also contributed to the decrease of slope stability by cutting the toe of the slope to build houses. Seismic activity, even if did not contribute directly to the initiation of the La Pintada landslide, might have promoted the decrease in slope stability in

  9. Tambora and the mackerel year: Phenology and fisheries during an extreme climate event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, Karen E.; Leavenworth, William B.; Willis, Theodore V.; Hall, Carolyn; Mattocks, Steven; Bittner, Steven M.; Klein, Emily; Staudinger, Michelle; Bryan, Alexander; Rosset, Julianne; Carr, Benjamin H.; Jordaan, Adrian

    2017-01-01

    Global warming has increased the frequency of extreme climate events, yet responses of biological and human communities are poorly understood, particularly for aquatic ecosystems and fisheries. Retrospective analysis of known outcomes may provide insights into the nature of adaptations and trajectory of subsequent conditions. We consider the 1815 eruption of the Indonesian volcano Tambora and its impact on Gulf of Maine (GoM) coastal and riparian fisheries in 1816. Applying complex adaptive systems theory with historical methods, we analyzed fish export data and contemporary climate records to disclose human and piscine responses to Tambora’s extreme weather at different spatial and temporal scales while also considering sociopolitical influences. Results identified a tipping point in GoM fisheries induced by concatenating social and biological responses to extreme weather. Abnormal daily temperatures selectively affected targeted fish species—alewives, shad, herring, and mackerel—according to their migration and spawning phenologies and temperature tolerances. First to arrive, alewives suffered the worst. Crop failure and incipient famine intensified fishing pressure, especially in heavily settled regions where dams already compromised watersheds. Insufficient alewife runs led fishers to target mackerel, the next species appearing in abundance along the coast; thus, 1816 became the “mackerel year.” Critically, the shift from riparian to marine fisheries persisted and expanded after temperatures moderated and alewives recovered. We conclude that contingent human adaptations to extraordinary weather permanently altered this complex system. Understanding how adaptive responses to extreme events can trigger unintended consequences may advance long-term planning for resilience in an uncertain future. PMID:28116356

  10. LONGITUDINAL PROPERTIES OF A WIDESPREAD SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENT ON 2014 FEBRUARY 25: EVOLUTION OF THE ASSOCIATED CME SHOCK

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lario, D.; Kwon, R.-Y.; Vourlidas, A.; Raouafi, N. E.; Haggerty, D. K.; Ho, G. C.; Anderson, B. J. [The Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, MD 20723 (United States); Papaioannou, A. [Institute for Astronomy, Astrophysics, Space Applications and Remote Sensing, National Observatory of Athens, GR-15 236 Penteli (Greece); Gómez-Herrero, R. [Space Research Group, Physics and Mathematics Department, University of Alcalá, Alcalá de Henares, E-28871 (Spain); Dresing, N. [Institute of Experimental and Applied Physics, Christian-Albrechts University of Kiel, Kiel (Germany); Riley, P. [Predictive Science, 9990 Mesa Rim Road, Suite 170, San Diego, CA 92121 (United States)

    2016-03-01

    We investigate the solar phenomena associated with the origin of the solar energetic particle (SEP) event observed on 2014 February 25 by a number of spacecraft distributed in the inner heliosphere over a broad range of heliolongitudes. These include spacecraft located near Earth; the twin Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory spacecraft, STEREO-A and STEREO-B, located at ∼1 au from the Sun 153° west and 160° east of Earth, respectively; the MErcury Surface Space ENvironment GEochemistry and Ranging mission (at 0.40 au and 31° west of Earth); and the Juno spacecraft (at 2.11 au and 48° east of Earth). Although the footpoints of the field lines nominally connecting the Sun with STEREO-A, STEREO-B and near-Earth spacecraft were quite distant from each other, an intense high-energy SEP event with Fe-rich prompt components was observed at these three locations. The extent of the extreme-ultraviolet wave associated with the solar eruption generating the SEP event was very limited in longitude. However, the white-light shock accompanying the associated coronal mass ejection extended over a broad range of longitudes. As the shock propagated into interplanetary space it extended over at least ∼190° in longitude. The release of the SEPs observed at different longitudes occurred when the portion of the shock magnetically connected to each spacecraft was already at relatively high altitudes (≳2 R{sub ⊙} above the solar surface). The expansion of the shock in the extended corona, as opposite to near the solar surface, determined the SEP injection and SEP intensity-time profiles at different longitudes.

  11. Recurring features of extreme rainfall events close to Veneto coast during autumn

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monai, M.; Barbi, A.; Racca, R.

    2010-09-01

    Climate of Veneto (north-east Italy) is characterized by significant differences between specific areas: mountains, plane, coast, etc. Such differences are particulary strong as far as precipitation is concerned. Mean annual rainfall on the coast is approximately 700-1000mm, whereas quantities more than double are measured on Prealps, only 100 km apart. Such differences are mainly related to crucial role of reliefs and with their interaction with southerly warm and humid fluxis coming from the Mediterranean Sea. A more detailed analyses of rainfall distribution highlights some interesting features, associated with a more localized role of the Adriatic Sea. Among others, it is noticeable that coastal area of Veneto is well subject to extreme events even if, as already mentioned, total annual amount of rain is the lowest in the region. Referring to the coast of Veneto, present work deals with: a) Climate study including seasonal and monthly distributions of precipitation; b) Contribution of extreme events to annual total; c) Analyses of recent extreme events happened in September during last four years. In fact for that area of Veneto, September is the most rainy month. Furthermore during September maximum of daily rainfall values were recorded (period of analyses 1993-2009); in particular, during the last four months of September, from 2006 to 2009, every year an extreme event occurred. Final goal was to understand main factors that caused such particular episodes in the same period of the year. Referring to four recent events happened during last four months of September, a detailed analyses was carried out including: - synoptic analyses both at surface than aloft; - study on mesoscale information derived from ground dense network, weather radar, etc. All events evidenced some common features: - deep thought aloft between North Atlantic Ocean and Central Mediterranean, with possible formation of low-level cyclone on Gulf of Genoa; - low-level advection of moist and

  12. Lunar Rocks: Available for Year of the Solar System Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, J. S.

    2010-12-01

    sections may be use requested for college and university courses where petrographic microscopes are available for viewing. Requestors should contact Ms. Mary Luckey, Education Sample Curator. Email address: mary.k.luckey@nasa.gov NASA also loans sets of Moon rocks for use in classrooms, libraries, museums, and planetariums through the Lunar Sample Education Program. Lunar samples (three soils and three rocks) are encapsulated in a six-inch diameter clear plastic disk. A CD with PowerPoint presentations, analogue samples from Earth, a classroom activity guide, and additional printed material accompany the disks. Educators may qualify for the use of these disks by attending a content and security certification workshop sponsored by NASA's Aerospace Education Services Program (AESP). Contact Ms. Margaret Maher, AESP Director. Email address: mjm67@psu.edu NASA makes these precious samples available for the public and encourages the use of lunar rocks to highlight Year of the Solar System events. Surely these interesting specimens of another world will enhance the experience of all YSS participants so please take advantage of these lunar samples and borrow them for events and classes.

  13. Interpreting Climate Model Projections of Extreme Weather Events for Decision Makers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vavrus, S. J.; Notaro, M.

    2014-12-01

    The proliferation of output from climate model ensembles, such as CMIP3 and CMIP5, has greatly expanded access to future projections, but there is no accepted blueprint for how this data should be interpreted. Decision makers are thus faced with difficult questions when trying to utilize such information: How reliable are the multi-model mean projections? How should the changes simulated by outlier models be treated? How can raw projections of temperature and precipitation be translated into probabilities? The multi-model average is often regarded as the most accurate single estimate of future conditions, but higher-order moments representing the variance and skewness of the distribution of projections provide important information about uncertainty. We have analyzed a set of statistically downscaled climate model projections from the CMIP3 archive to conduct an assessment of extreme weather events at a level designed to be relevant for decision makers. Our analysis uses the distribution of 13 GCM projections to derive the inter-model standard deviation (and coefficient of variation, COV), skewness, and percentile ranges for simulated changes in extreme heat, cold, and precipitation during the middle and late 21st century for the A1B emissions scenario. These metrics help to establish the overall confidence level across the entire range of projections (via the inter-model COV), relative confidence in the simulated high-end versus low-end changes (via skewness), and probabilistic uncertainty bounds derived from a bootstrapping technique. Over our analysis domain centered on the United States Midwest, some primary findings include: (1) Greater confidence in projections of less extreme cold than more extreme heat and intense precipitation, (2) Greater confidence in the low-end than high-end projections of extreme heat, and (3) Higher spatial and temporal variability in the confidence of projected increases of heavy precipitation. In addition, our bootstrapping

  14. Comparison of annual maximum series and partial duration series methods for modeling extreme hydrologic events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Pearson, Charles P.; Rosbjerg, Dan

    1997-01-01

    Two regional estimation schemes, based on, respectively, partial duration series (PDS) and annual maximum series (AMS), are compared. The PDS model assumes a generalized Pareto (GP) distribution for modeling threshold exceedances corresponding to a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution...... for annual maxima. First, the accuracy of PDS/GP and AMS/GEV regional index-flood T-year event estimators are compared using Monte Carlo simulations. For estimation in typical regions assuming a realistic degree of heterogeneity, the PDS/GP index-flood model is more efficient. The regional PDS and AMS...

  15. Cosmic rays Monte Carlo simulations for the Extreme Energy Events Project

    CERN Document Server

    Abbrescia, M; Aiola, S; Antolini, R; Avanzini, C; Baldini Ferroli, R; Bencivenni, G; Bossini, E; Bressan, E; Chiavassa, A; Cicalò, C; Cifarelli, L; Coccia, E; De Gruttola, D; De Pasquale, S; Di Giovanni, A; D'Incecco, M; Dreucci, M; Fabbri, F L; Frolov, V; Garbini, M; Gemme, G; Gnesi, I; Gustavino, C; Hatzifotiadou, D; La Rocca, P; Li, S; Librizzi, F; Maggiora, A; Massai, M; Miozzi, S; Panareo, M; Paoletti, R; Perasso, L; Pilo, F; Piragino, G; Regano, A; Riggi, F; Righini, G C; Sartorelli, G; Scapparone, E; Scribano, A; Selvi, M; Serci, S; Siddi, E; Spandre, G; Squarcia, S; Taiuti, M; Tosello, F; Votano, L; Williams, M C S; Yánez, G; Zichichi, A; Zuyeuski, R

    2014-01-01

    The Extreme Energy Events Project (EEE Project) is an innovative experiment to study very high energy cosmic rays by means of the detection of the associated air shower muon component. It consists of a network of tracking detectors installed inside Italian High Schools. Each tracking detector, called EEE telescope, is composed of three Multigap Resistive Plate Chambers (MRPCs). At present, 43 telescopes are installed and taking data, opening the way for the detection of far away coincidences over a total area of about 3 × 10 5 km 2 . In this paper we present the Monte Carlo simulations that have been performed to predict the expected coincidence rate between distant EEE telescopes.

  16. Two centuries of extreme events over the Baltic Sea and North Sea regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stendel, Martin; den Besselaar Else, van; Abdel, Hannachi; Jaak, Jaagus; Elizabeth, Kent; Christiana, Lefebvre; Gudrun, Rosenhagen; Anna, Rutgersson; Frederik, Schenk; der Schrier Gerard, van; Tim, Woolings

    2017-04-01

    Two centuries of extreme events over the Baltic Sea and North Sea regions In the framework of the BACC 2 (for the Baltic Sea) and NOSCCA projects (for the North Sea region), studies of past and present variability and changes in atmospheric variables within the North Sea region over the instrumental period (roughly the past 200 years) have been investigated. Findings on trends in temperature and precipitation have already been presented. Here we focus on data homogeneity issues and examine how reliable reanalyses are in this context. Unlike most other regions in the world, there is a wealth of old observations available for the Baltic and North Sea regions, most of it in handwritten form in meteorological journals and other publications. These datasets need to be carefully digitised and homogenized. For this, a thorough quality control must be applied; otherwise the digitised datasets may prove useless or even counterproductive. We present evidence that this step cannot be conducted without human interference and thus cannot be fully automated. Furthermore, inhomogeneities due to e.g. instrumentation and station relocations need to be addressed. A wealth of reanalysis products is available, which can help detect such inhomogeneities in observed time series, but at the same time are prone to biases and/or spurious trends themselves e.g. introduced by changes in the availability and quality of the underlying assimilated data. It therefore in general remains unclear in how far we can simulate the pre-satellite era with respect to homogeneity with reanalyses based only on parts of the observing system. Extreme events and changes in extreme situations are more important and of greater (societal) significance than changes in mean climate. However, changes in extreme weather events are difficult to assess not only because they are, per definition, rare events, but also due to the homogeneity issues outlined above. Taking these into account, we present evidence for changes

  17. Cosmic rays Monte Carlo simulations for the Extreme Energy Events Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbrescia, M.; Agocs, A.; Aiola, S.; Antolini, R.; Avanzini, C.; Baldini Ferroli, R.; Bencivenni, G.; Bossini, E.; Bressan, E.; Chiavassa, A.; Cicalò, C.; Cifarelli, L.; Coccia, E.; De Gruttola, D.; De Pasquale, S.; Di Giovanni, A.; D'Incecco, M.; Dreucci, M.; Fabbri, F. L.; Frolov, V.; Garbini, M.; Gemme, G.; Gnesi, I.; Gustavino, C.; Hatzifotiadou, D.; La Rocca, P.; Li, S.; Librizzi, F.; Maggiora, A.; Massai, M.; Miozzi, S.; Panareo, M.; Paoletti, R.; Perasso, L.; Pilo, F.; Piragino, G.; Regano, A.; Riggi, F.; Righini, G. C.; Sartorelli, G.; Scapparone, E.; Scribano, A.; Selvi, M.; Serci, S.; Siddi, E.; Spandre, G.; Squarcia, S.; Taiuti, M.; Tosello, F.; Votano, L.; Williams, M. C. S.; Yánez, G.; Zichichi, A.; Zuyeuski, R.

    2014-08-01

    The Extreme Energy Events Project (EEE Project) is an innovative experiment to study very high energy cosmic rays by means of the detection of the associated air shower muon component. It consists of a network of tracking detectors installed inside Italian High Schools. Each tracking detector, called EEE telescope, is composed of three Multigap Resistive Plate Chambers (MRPCs). At present, 43 telescopes are installed and taking data, opening the way for the detection of far away coincidences over a total area of about 3 × 105 km2. In this paper we present the Monte Carlo simulations that have been performed to predict the expected coincidence rate between distant EEE telescopes.

  18. Climate Resiliency Planning: Making Extreme Event Science Useful for Managers and Planners in Northern Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarthy, M.; Kenneston, A.; Wall, T. U.; Brown, T. J.; Redmond, K. T.

    2014-12-01

    Effective climate resiliency planning at the regional level requires extensive interactive dialogue among climate scientists, emergency managers, public health officials, urban planners, social scientists, and policy makers. Engaging federal, tribal, state, local governments and private sector business and infrastructure owners/operators in defining, assessing and characterizing the impacts of extreme events allows communities to understand how different events "break the system" forcing local communities to seek support and resources from state/federal governments and/or the private sector and what actions can be taken proactively to mitigate consequences and accelerate recovery. The Washoe County Regional Resiliency Study was prepared in response to potential climate variability related impacts specific to the Northern Nevada Region. The last several decades have seen dramatic growth in the region, coupled with increased resource demands that have forced local governments to consider how those impacts will affect the region and may, in turn, impact the region's ability to provide essential services. The Western Regional Climate Center of the Desert Research Institute provided a synthesis of climate studies with predictions regarding plausible changes in the local climate of Northern California and Nevada for the next 50 years. In general, these predictions indicate that the region's climate is undergoing a gradual shift, which will primarily affect the frequency, amount, and form of precipitation in the Sierra Nevada and Great Basin. Changes in water availability and other extreme events may have serious and long lasting effects in the Northern Nevada Region, and create a variety of social, environmental and economic concerns. A range of extreme events were considered including Adverse Air Quality, Droughts, Floods, Heat Waves, High Wind, Structure Fires, Wildland Fires, and Major Winter Storms. Due to the complexity of our climate systems, and the difficulty in

  19. Climate change increases the likelihood of catastrophic avian mortality events during extreme heat waves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKechnie, Andrew E; Wolf, Blair O

    2010-04-23

    Severe heat waves have occasionally led to catastrophic avian mortality in hot desert environments. Climate change models predict increases in the intensity, frequency and duration of heat waves. A model of avian evaporative water requirements and survival times during the hottest part of day reveals that the predicted increases in maximum air temperatures will result in large fractional increases in water requirements (in small birds, equivalent to 150-200 % of current values), which will severely reduce survival times during extremely hot weather. By the 2080s, desert birds will experience reduced survival times much more frequently during mid-summer, increasing the frequency of catastrophic mortality events.

  20. Impact of January 2005 solar proton events on chlorine species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Damiani

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Sudden changes in stratospheric chlorine species in the polar northern atmosphere, caused by the Solar Proton Events (SPEs of 17 and 20 January 2005, have been investigated and compared with version 4 of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM4. We used Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS measurements to monitor the variability of ClO, HCl, HOCl and Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounder (MIPAS on ENVISAT to retrieve ClONO2. SPE-induced chlorine activation has been identified. HCl decrease occurred at nearly all the investigated altitudes with the lowest values (of less than 0.25 ppbv on 21 January. HOCl was found to be the main active chlorine species under nighttime conditions (with increases of more than 0.2 ppbv whereas both HOCl and ClO enhancements (about 0.1 ppbv have been observed at the polar night terminator. Further, small ClO decreases (of less than 0.1 ppbv and ClONO2 enhancements (about 0.2 ppbv have been observed at higher latitudes (i.e., at nighttime roughly above 2 hPa.

    While WACCM4 reproduces most of the SPE-induced variability in the chlorine species fairly well, in some particular regions discrepancies between the modeled and measured temporal evolution of the abundances of chlorine species were found. HOCl changes are modelled very well with respect to both magnitude and geographic distribution. ClO decreases are reproduced at high latitudes, whereas ClO enhancements in the terminator region are underestimated and attributed to background variations. WACCM4 also reproduces the HCl depletion in the mesosphere but it does not show the observed decrease below about 2 hPa. Finally, WACCM4 simulations indicate that the observed ClONO2 increase is dominated by background variability, although SPE-induced production might contribute by 0.1 ppbv.

  1. Crossing historical and sedimentary archives to reconstruct an extreme flood event calendar in high alpine areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilhelm, B.; Giguet-Covex, C.; Arnaud, F.; Allignol, F.; Legaz, A.; Melo, A.

    2010-09-01

    to reconstruct a high-resolution flood calendar to assess a reliable frequency of extreme flood events which can be compared with precise climatic parameters as the instrumental and reconstructed temperature. Finally it was equally possible to compare the recorded intensity of flood events between the both archives and thus estimate the hazard perception and vulnerability of local people throughout the last three centuries.

  2. 25 MeV Solar Proton Events in Cycle 24 and Previous Cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, I. G.; Cane, H. V.; von Rosenvinge, T. T.

    2014-12-01

    We summarize observations of nearly 1000 solar energetic particle events that include 25 MeV protons made by Goddard instruments on various spacecraft (IMPs IV, V, 7, 8, ISEE-3) and by other instruments on SOHO, since 1967, encompassing solar cycles 20 to 24. We also include recent observations of such events from the STEREO spacecraft. These extended observations place studies focusing on Cycles 23 and 24 in a broader context. For example, the time distribution of 25 MeV proton events varies from cycle to cycle such that each cycle is unique. In the current cycle, ~25 MeV proton events were absent during the preceding solar minimum, whereas earlier minima showed occasional, often reasonably intense events, and there have been, so far, fewer exceptionally intense events compared to Cycles 22 and 23, though Cycle 21 also apparently lacked such events.

  3. Nitrate ions spikes in ice cores are not suitable proxies for solar proton events

    CERN Document Server

    Duderstadt, Katharine A; Jackman, Charles H; Randall, Cora E; Schwadron, Nathan A; Solomon, Stanley C; Spence, Harlan E; Yudin, Valery A

    2015-01-01

    Nitrate ion spikes in polar ice cores are contentiously used to estimate the intensity, frequency, and probability of historical solar proton events, quantities that are needed to prepare for potentially society-crippling space weather events. We use the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model to calculate how large an event would have to be to produce enough odd nitrogen throughout the atmosphere to be discernible as nitrate peaks at the Earth's surface. These hypothetically large events are compared with probability of occurrence estimates derived from measured events, sunspot records, and cosmogenic radionuclides archives. We conclude that the fluence and spectrum of solar proton events necessary to produce odd nitrogen enhancements equivalent to the spikes of nitrate ions in Greenland ice cores are unlikely to have occurred throughout the Holocene, confirming that nitrate ions in ice cores are not suitable proxies for historical individual solar proton events.

  4. Extreme events of 2012, 2013 and 2014 linked to planetary wave resonance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petoukhov, Vladimir; Coumou, Dim; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Stadtherr, Lisa; Kornhuber, Kai; Petri, Stefan; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

    2016-04-01

    Quasi-stationary planetary waves of large-amplitude have been linked to the occurrence of many of the most extreme weather events of the past decades in the Northern Hemisphere. This includes the European heat waves of 2003 and 2010 as well as the catastrophic Elbe flooding 2002. A resonance mechanism was proposed to explain the occurrence of large-amplitude planetary waves (Petoukhov et al. 2013) and a recent increase in the frequency of resonance events has been identified (Coumou et al. 2014). We extend the analysis to more recent extreme weather events. 2012 marked the warmest spring on record in the USA, accompanied by wettest spring in 100 years in the UK and national heat records for the warmest temperature in spring in 13 other European countries; torrential rains and demolishing floods in central and eastern China together with an oppressive heat wave in the USA in June; hottest July on record in the USA simultaneously with the worst flooding in 60 years in eastern China and Japan; unparalleled heat in the USA and destructive floods in China and the Philippines in August; and widespread floods in the UK in September. 2013 saw Central European Flooding in May-early June; trains of persistent heat waves in the USA and China in mid-June; and in the USA, central Europe, and western and eastern China end of June/July; strong floods in central China and Japan in late July/early August; and in north-eastern China and eastern Russia in mid-and late August; a sweltering heat wave in eastern China and Japan in early September; the worst flood in central China in late September/early October. The obtained results confirm a recent tendency to an increase in the frequency of occurrence of quasi-resonant conditions, favoring the emergence of persistent regional extremes in the NH mid-latitudes (Petoukhov et al, submitted). In May 2014, the Balkans were hit by a Vb-type cyclone that brought disastrous flooding and severe damage to Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and

  5. A study of upward going particles with the Extreme Energy Events telescopes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abbrescia, M. [Museo Storico della Fisica e Centro Studi e Ricerche E. Fermi, Roma (Italy); INFN and Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Bari, Bari (Italy); Avanzini, C.; Baldini, L. [Museo Storico della Fisica e Centro Studi e Ricerche E. Fermi, Roma (Italy); INFN and Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Pisa, Pisa (Italy); Ferroli, R. Baldini [Museo Storico della Fisica e Centro Studi e Ricerche E. Fermi, Roma (Italy); INFN Laboratori Nazionali di Frascati, Frascati (RM) (Italy); Batignani, G. [Museo Storico della Fisica e Centro Studi e Ricerche E. Fermi, Roma (Italy); INFN and Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Pisa, Pisa (Italy); Bencivenni, G. [INFN Laboratori Nazionali di Frascati, Frascati (RM) (Italy); Bossini, E. [Museo Storico della Fisica e Centro Studi e Ricerche E. Fermi, Roma (Italy); INFN Gruppo Collegato di Siena and Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Siena, Siena (Italy); Chiavassa, A. [INFN and Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Torino, Torino (Italy); Cicalo, C. [Museo Storico della Fisica e Centro Studi e Ricerche E. Fermi, Roma (Italy); INFN and Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Cagliari, Cagliari (Italy); Cifarelli, L. [Museo Storico della Fisica e Centro Studi e Ricerche E. Fermi, Roma (Italy); INFN and Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Bologna, Bologna (Italy); Coccia, E. [INFN and Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Roma Tor Vergata, Roma (Italy); Corvaglia, A. [Museo Storico della Fisica e Centro Studi e Ricerche E. Fermi, Roma (Italy); INFN and Dipartimento di Matematica e Fisica, Università del Salento, Lecce (Italy); and others

    2016-04-21

    In this paper the first study of the upward going events detected by the telescopes of the Extreme Energy Event (EEE) project is reported. The EEE project consists of a detector array of Multigap Resistive Plate Chambers located at selected sites on the Italian territory. During autumn 2014 the first coordinated data taking period took place and around one billion candidate tracks were collected. Among them, of particular interest is the sample of particles which cross the telescopes from below. The results obtained demonstrate that the EEE telescopes can distinguish the electrons produced as decay products of cosmic muons stopped in the ground, or in the last chamber of the telescopes themselves, confirming the excellent performance of the system for the investigation of intriguing cosmic phenomena.

  6. CrossRef A study of upward going particles with the Extreme Energy Events telescopes

    CERN Document Server

    Abbrescia, M; Baldini, L; Ferroli, R Baldini; Batignani, G; Bencivenni, G; Bossini, E; Chiavassa, A; Cicalo, C; Cifarelli, L; Coccia, E; Corvaglia, A; De Gruttola, D; De Pasquale, S; Di Giovanni, A; D׳Incecco, M; Dreucci, M; Fabbri, F L; Fattibene, E; Ferraro, A; Forster, R; Frolov, V; Galeotti, P; Garbini, M; Gemme, G; Gnesi, I; Grazzi, S; Gustavino, C; Hatzifotiadu, D; La Rocca, P; Maggiora, A; Maron, G; Mazziotta, M N; Miozzi, S; Nania, R; Noferini, F; Nozzoli, F; Panareo, M; Panetta, M P; Paoletti, R; Perasso, L; Pilo, F; Piragino, G; Riggi, F; Righini, G C; Rodriguez, A R; Sartorelli, G; Scapparone, E; Schioppa, M; Scribano, A; Selvi, M; Serci, S; Siddi, E; Squarcia, S; Stori, L; Taiuti, M; Terreni, G; Vistoli, M C; Votano, L; Williams, M C S; Zani, S; Zichichi, A; Zuyeuski, R

    2016-01-01

    In this paper the first study of the upward going events detected by the telescopes of the Extreme Energy Event (EEE) project is reported. The EEE project consists of a detector array of Multigap Resistive Plate Chambers located at selected sites on the Italian territory. During autumn 2014 the first coordinated data taking period took place and around one billion candidate tracks were collected. Among them, of particular interest is the sample of particles which cross the telescopes from below. The results obtained demonstrate that the EEE telescopes can distinguish the electrons produced as decay products of cosmic muons stopped in the ground, or in the last chamber of the telescopes themselves, confirming the excellent performance of the system for the investigation of intriguing cosmic phenomena.

  7. A study of upward going particles with the Extreme Energy Events telescopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbrescia, M.; Avanzini, C.; Baldini, L.; Ferroli, R. Baldini; Batignani, G.; Bencivenni, G.; Bossini, E.; Chiavassa, A.; Cicalo, C.; Cifarelli, L.; Coccia, E.; Corvaglia, A.; De Gruttola, D.; De Pasquale, S.; Di Giovanni, A.; D`Incecco, M.; Dreucci, M.; Fabbri, F. L.; Fattibene, E.; Ferraro, A.; Forster, R.; Frolov, V.; Galeotti, P.; Garbini, M.; Gemme, G.; Gnesi, I.; Grazzi, S.; Gustavino, C.; Hatzifotiadu, D.; La Rocca, P.; Maggiora, A.; Maron, G.; Mazziotta, M. N.; Miozzi, S.; Nania, R.; Noferini, F.; Nozzoli, F.; Panareo, M.; Panetta, M. P.; Paoletti, R.; Perasso, L.; Pilo, F.; Piragino, G.; Riggi, F.; Righini, G. C.; Rodriguez, A. R.; Sartorelli, G.; Scapparone, E.; Schioppa, M.; Scribano, A.; Selvi, M.; Serci, S.; Siddi, E.; Squarcia, S.; Stori, L.; Taiuti, M.; Terreni, G.; Vistoli, M. C.; Votano, L.; Williams, M. C. S.; Zani, S.; Zichichi, A.; Zuyeuski, R.

    2016-04-01

    In this paper the first study of the upward going events detected by the telescopes of the Extreme Energy Event (EEE) project is reported. The EEE project consists of a detector array of Multigap Resistive Plate Chambers located at selected sites on the Italian territory. During autumn 2014 the first coordinated data taking period took place and around one billion candidate tracks were collected. Among them, of particular interest is the sample of particles which cross the telescopes from below. The results obtained dem