WorldWideScience

Sample records for extreme price movements

  1. Oil price movements and production agreements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazraati, M.

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this technical exercise is to apply econometric modelling to study the relationship between movements in the oil price and compliance by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) with its self-assigned production agreements, whose purpose is to bring order and stability to the international oil market. After introducing various methods of measurement of compliance, the study applies these methods to monthly data for 1995-2002 for OPEC. It then identifies the method ''over-production as a percentage of ceiling'' as the best-fitting and most accurate criterion for measuring OPEC compliance. The paper then elaborates on intervention analysis, explains the various types of intervention in detail and introduces a number of econometric models to monitor oil price movements resulting from OPEC's intervention in the oil market, along with the extent of its compliance with its agreements. On applying the models to a set of historical monthly data, the study finds that higher oil prices have been achieved when the effective level of compliance lies in the range of 94-99 per cent, and that lower oil prices have been experienced when there is less compliance and more volatility. The paper notes that the achievement of order and stability is the responsibility of all parties in an international market that is inherently volatile. (author)

  2. Predicting Malaysian palm oil price using Extreme Value Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Chuangchid, K; Sriboonchitta, S; Rahman, S; Wiboonpongse, A

    2013-01-01

    This paper uses the extreme value theory (EVT) to predict extreme price events of Malaysian palm oil in the future, based on monthly futures price data for a 25 year period (mid-1986 to mid-2011). Model diagnostic has confirmed non-normal distribution of palm oil price data, thereby justifying the use of EVT. Two principal approaches to model extreme values – the Block Maxima (BM) and Peak-Over- Threshold (POT) models – were used. Both models revealed that the palm oil price will peak at ...

  3. Real House Price Dynamics in OECD countries - The risk of large movements in prices

    OpenAIRE

    Mamre, Mari Olsen

    2014-01-01

    Using different econometric approaches and based on a panel of 21 OECD countries this thesis investigate whether differences in structural or policy factors significantly affects the price responsiveness of shocks to demand in the short run and in the cases of abrupt movements in real prices. Over such steeper areas of the housing cycle the analysis focus specifically on finding evidence of asymmetric responses of demand and structural factors on price dynamics. The study of asymmetries in th...

  4. Statistical Analysis Of The Share Price Movement Of Stocks ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study was aimed at providing the investor with timing evidence in decisions with regards to the purchase of and sale of equities that will lead towards higher annual returns from his stock investment as well as to understand the causes and pattern of shares price movements as it affects investment decisions in the ...

  5. EVT in electricity price modeling : extreme value theory not only on the extreme events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marossy, Z.

    2007-01-01

    The extreme value theory (EVT) is commonly used in electricity and financial risk modeling. In this study, EVT was used to model the distribution of electricity prices. The model was built on the price formation in electricity auction markets. This paper reviewed the 3 main modeling approaches used to describe the distribution of electricity prices. The first approach is based on a stochastic model of the electricity price time series and uses this stochastic model to generate the given distribution. The second approach involves electricity supply and demand factors that determine the price distribution. The third approach involves agent-based models which use simulation techniques to write down the price distribution. A fourth modeling approach was then proposed to describe the distribution of electricity prices. The new approach determines the distribution of electricity prices directly without knowing anything about the data generating process or market driving forces. Empirical data confirmed that the distribution of electricity prices have a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. 8 refs., 2 tabs., 5 figs

  6. Food Prices and Climate Extremes: A Model of Global Grain Price Variability with Storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, C.; Schewe, J.; Frieler, K.

    2015-12-01

    Extreme climate events such as droughts, floods, or heat waves affect agricultural production in major cropping regions and therefore impact the world market prices of staple crops. In the last decade, crop prices exhibited two very prominent price peaks in 2007-2008 and 2010-2011, threatening food security especially for poorer countries that are net importers of grain. There is evidence that these spikes in grain prices were at least partly triggered by actual supply shortages and the expectation of bad harvests. However, the response of the market to supply shocks is nonlinear and depends on complex and interlinked processes such as warehousing, speculation, and trade policies. Quantifying the contributions of such different factors to short-term price variability remains difficult, not least because many existing models ignore the role of storage which becomes important on short timescales. This in turn impedes the assessment of future climate change impacts on food prices. Here, we present a simple model of annual world grain prices that integrates grain stocks into the supply and demand functions. This firstly allows us to model explicitly the effect of storage strategies on world market price, and thus, for the first time, to quantify the potential contribution of trade policies to price variability in a simple global framework. Driven only by reported production and by long--term demand trends of the past ca. 40 years, the model reproduces observed variations in both the global storage volume and price of wheat. We demonstrate how recent price peaks can be reproduced by accounting for documented changes in storage strategies and trade policies, contrasting and complementing previous explanations based on different mechanisms such as speculation. Secondly, we show how the integration of storage allows long-term projections of grain price variability under climate change, based on existing crop yield scenarios.

  7. Kinematic and neuromuscular relationships between lower extremity clinical movement assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mauntel, Timothy C; Cram, Tyler R; Frank, Barnett S; Begalle, Rebecca L; Norcross, Marc F; Blackburn, J Troy; Padua, Darin A

    2018-06-01

    Lower extremity injuries have immediate and long-term consequences. Lower extremity movement assessments can assist with identifying individuals at greater injury risk and guide injury prevention interventions. Movement assessments identify similar movement characteristics and evidence suggests large magnitude kinematic relationships exist between movement patterns observed across assessments; however, the magnitude of the relationships for electromyographic (EMG) measures across movement assessments remains largely unknown. This study examined relationships between lower extremity kinematic and EMG measures during jump landings and single leg squats. Lower extremity three-dimensional kinematic and EMG data were sampled from healthy adults (males = 20, females = 20) during the movement assessments. Pearson correlations examined the relationships of the kinematic and EMG measures and paired samples t-tests compared mean kinematic and EMG measures between the assessments. Overall, significant moderate correlations were observed for lower extremity kinematic (r avg  = 0.41, r range  = 0.10-0.61) and EMG (r avg  = 0.47, r range  = 0.32-0.80) measures across assessments. Kinematic and EMG measures were greater during the jump landings. Jump landings and single leg squats place different demands on the body and necessitate different kinematic and EMG patterns, such that these measures are not highly correlated between assessments. Clinicians should, therefore, use multiple assessments to identify aberrant movement and neuromuscular control patterns so that comprehensive interventions can be implemented.

  8. Modelling and Forecasting Stock Price Movements with Serially Dependent Determinants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rasika Yatigammana

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The direction of price movements are analysed under an ordered probit framework, recognising the importance of accounting for discreteness in price changes. By extending the work of Hausman et al. (1972 and Yang and Parwada (2012,This paper focuses on improving the forecast performance of the model while infusing a more practical perspective by enhancing flexibility. This is achieved by extending the existing framework to generate short term multi period ahead forecasts for better decision making, whilst considering the serial dependence structure. This approach enhances the flexibility and adaptability of the model to future price changes, particularly targeting risk minimisation. Empirical evidence is provided, based on seven stocks listed on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX. The prediction success varies between 78 and 91 per cent for in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts for both the short term and long term.

  9. Prediction of Lower Extremity Movement by Cyclograms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Kutilek

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Human gait is nowadays undergoing extensive analysis. Predictions of leg movements can be used for orthosis and prosthesis programming, and also for rehabilitation. Our work focuses on predicting human gait with the use of angle-angle diagrams, also called cyclograms. In conjunction with artificial intelligence, cyclograms offer a wide area of medical applications. We have identified cyclogram characteristics such as the slope and the area of the cyclogram for a neural network learning algorithm. Neural networks learned by cyclograms offer wide applications in prosthesis control systems.

  10. Oil price movements and globalisation: is there a connection?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Looney, R.

    2002-01-01

    There has been considerable speculation over the years concerning the cost of large oil price movements ('shocks') to consuming countries. For the advanced industrial countries, the conventional wisdom appears to be that, because these economies are becoming more service-oriented, less energy is needed per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) and hence a lessening of the economic costs associated with increased oil prices. On the other hand, because many newly industrialised or catching-up countries are entering a phase of energy-intensive industrialisation, the same oil shocks are placing an increasing burden on these economies. One can easily argue, however, that industrialisation is only one facet of economic change taking place in the world economy. Conceivably, the rapid pace of increased globalisation may significantly modify these patterns. To test this proposition, an operational definition of globalisation is developed and shown to be positively associated with the strength of oil price shocks. The main finding of the study is that increased globalisation appears to be strengthening the impact of oil price shocks in the advanced industrial countries, but to a much lesser extent in the newly industrialising countries. (author)

  11. Forecasting oil price movements with crack spread futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murat, Atilim; Tokat, Ekin

    2009-01-01

    In oil markets, the crack spread refers to the crude-product price relationship. Refiners are major participants in oil markets and they are primarily exposed to the crack spread. In other words, refiner activity is substantially driven by the objective of protecting the crack spread. Moreover, oil consumers are active participants in the oil hedging market and they are frequently exposed to the crack spread. From another perspective, hedge funds are heavily using crack spread to speculate in oil markets. Based on the high volume of crack spread futures trading in oil markets, the question we want to raise is whether the crack spread futures can be a good predictor of oil price movements. We investigated first whether there is a causal relationship between the crack spread futures and the spot oil markets in a vector error correction framework. We found the causal impact of crack spread futures on spot oil market both in the long- and the short-run after April 2003 where we detected a structural break in the model. To examine the forecasting performance, we use the random walk model (RWM) as a benchmark, and we also evaluate the forecasting power of crack spread futures against the crude oil futures. The results showed that (a) both the crack spread futures and the crude oil futures outperformed the RWM; and (b) the crack spread futures are almost as good as the crude oil futures in predicting the movements in spot oil markets. (author)

  12. Price Limit and Volatility in Taiwan Stock Exchange: Some Additional Evidence from the Extreme Value Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Aktham I. Maghyereh; Haitham A. Al Zoubi; Haitham Nobanee

    2007-01-01

    We reexamine the effects of price limits on stock volatility of Taiwan Stock Exchange using a new methodology based on the Extreme-Value technique. Consistent with the advocates of price limits, we find that stock market volatility is sharply moderated under more restrictive price limits.

  13. Is there co-movement of agricultural commodities futures prices and crude oil?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Natanelov, Valeri; Alam, Mohammad J.; McKenzie, Andrew M.; Van Huylenbroeck, Guido

    2011-01-01

    Even though significant attempts have appeared in literature, the current perception of co-movement of commodity prices appear inadequate and static. In particular we focus on price movements between crude oil futures and a series of agricultural commodities and gold futures. A comparative framework is applied to identify changes in relationships through time and various cointegration methodologies and causality tests are employed. Our results indicate that co-movement is a dynamic concept and that some economic and policy development may change the relationship between commodities. Furthermore we show that biofuel policy buffers the co-movement of crude oil and corn futures until the crude oil prices surpass a certain threshold. - Highlights: → We show that co-movement of commodity futures is a temporal concept. → A variation in parallel movement between 2 large periods occurs. → Biofuel policy buffers parallel movement of corn and crude oil futures

  14. Is there co-movement of agricultural commodities futures prices and crude oil?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Natanelov, Valeri, E-mail: valeri.natanelov@ugent.be [Department of Agricultural Economics, Ghent University, Coupure links 653, 9000 Ghent (Belgium); Alam, Mohammad J. [Department of Agricultural Economics, Ghent University, Coupure links 653, 9000 Ghent (Belgium); Department of Agribusiness and Marketing, Bangladesh Agricultural University (Bangladesh); McKenzie, Andrew M. [Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, University of Arkansas, AR (United States); Van Huylenbroeck, Guido [Department of Agricultural Economics, Ghent University, Coupure links 653, 9000 Ghent (Belgium)

    2011-09-15

    Even though significant attempts have appeared in literature, the current perception of co-movement of commodity prices appear inadequate and static. In particular we focus on price movements between crude oil futures and a series of agricultural commodities and gold futures. A comparative framework is applied to identify changes in relationships through time and various cointegration methodologies and causality tests are employed. Our results indicate that co-movement is a dynamic concept and that some economic and policy development may change the relationship between commodities. Furthermore we show that biofuel policy buffers the co-movement of crude oil and corn futures until the crude oil prices surpass a certain threshold. - Highlights: > We show that co-movement of commodity futures is a temporal concept. > A variation in parallel movement between 2 large periods occurs. > Biofuel policy buffers parallel movement of corn and crude oil futures

  15. Crude oil price dynamics: A study on effects of market expectation and strategic supply on price movements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Xin

    consensus has been reached on OPEC strategic behavior. In the third chapter, we are interested in the effects of supply-side market power on oil price dynamics in face of different demand shocks, and model the oil market as composed of a strategic dominant firm and several competitive fringe producers. In each period, the dominant firm makes decision while taking fringe's response into consideration. We consider two alternative pricing strategies for the dominant firm. Our results show that this dynamic strategic model improves the potential of dominant firm-competitive fringe model in fitting and explaining real world data. A regime switch after a permanent demand increase generates a time path for price that looks like the price movements in the recent years.

  16. Exchange rate movement and import price of Machineries in Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The empirical estimates reveal that one lag variability of import price, exchange rate, foreign cost, domestic competitors price and demand pressure proxied by GDP impact it in the long-run. However, the ECM coefficient is properly signed with -0.549. By implication, approximately 54% of the discrepancy from long run ...

  17. Excess co-movement in asset prices: The case of South Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Ocran, Mathew; Mlambo, Chipo

    2009-01-01

    The paper investigates excess co-movement in asset prices in South Africa between 1995 and 2005 using the definition of excess comovement as correlation between two asset prices beyond what could be explained by key economic fundamentals. The results of the study suggest that there is excess co-movement between returns on equities and bonds in South Africa. The findings suggest that there are considerable noise traders on the financial market in South Africa. The result of this behaviour woul...

  18. Oil Price and Equity Markets: Modeling Co-Movement and Conditional Value at Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Solvang, Jørn; Aarø, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    Master's thesis in Finance This paper studies the co-movement between oil prices and stock markets during the period 2006 – 2017 utilizing quantile regression. The studied stock indices are AEX, BOVESPA, CAC40, DAX30, EUROSTOXX50, FTSE100, SMI, S&P500 and TSX60, and the United States Oil Fund ETF represents the oil price. We investigate the co-movement and find a positive and significant co-movement between oil returns and stock market returns across quantiles for the stock market return d...

  19. Co-Movement Analysis of Italian and Greek Electricity Market Wholesale Prices by Using a Wavelet Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George P. Papaioannou

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available We study the co-evolution of the dynamics or co-movement of two electricity markets, the Italian and Greek, by studying the dynamics of their wholesale day-ahead prices, simultaneously in the time-frequency domain. Co-movement is alternatively referred as market integration in financial economics and markets are internationally integrated if the reward for risk is identical regardless the market one trades in. The innovation of this work is the application of wavelet analysis and more specifically the wavelet coherence to estimate the dynamic interaction between these two prices. Our method is compared to other generic econometric tools used in Economics and Finance namely the dynamic correlation and coherence analysis, to study the co-movement of variables of the type related to these two fields. Our study reveals valuable information that we believe will be extremely useful to the authorities as well as other agents participating in these markets to better prepare the national markets towards the European target model, a framework in which the two markets will be coupled.

  20. Does Online Investor Sentiment Affect the Asset Price Movement? Evidence from the Chinese Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chi Xie

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available With the quick development of the Internet, online platforms that provide financial news and opinions have attracted more and more attention from investors. The question whether investor sentiment expressed on the Internet platforms has an impact on asset return has not been fully addressed. To this end, this paper uses the Baidu Searching Index as the agent variable to detect the effect of online investor sentiment on the asset price movement in the Chinese stock market. The empirical study shows that although there is a cointegration relationship between online investor sentiment and asset return, the sentiment has a poor ability to predict the price, return, and volatility of asset price. Meanwhile, the structural break points of online investor sentiment do not lead to changes in the asset price movement. Based on the empirical mode decomposition of online investor sentiment, we find that high frequency components of online investor sentiment can be used to predict the asset price movement. Thus, the obtained results could be useful for risk supervision and asset portfolio management.

  1. Co-Movement of Major Commodity Price Returns : Time-Series Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    de Nicola, Francesca; De Pace, Pierangelo; Hernandez, Manuel A.

    2014-01-01

    This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the degree of co-movement among the nominal price returns of 11 major energy, agricultural and food commodities based on monthly data between 1970 and 2013. A uniform-spacings testing approach, a multivariate dynamic conditional correlation model and a rolling regression procedure are used to study the extent and the time-evolution of uncondi...

  2. Extreme prices in electricity balancing markets from an approach of statistical physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mureddu, Mario; Meyer-Ortmanns, Hildegard

    2018-01-01

    An increase in energy production from renewable energy sources is viewed as a crucial achievement in most industrialized countries. The higher variability of power production via renewables leads to a rise in ancillary service costs over the power system, in particular costs within the electricity balancing markets, mainly due to an increased number of extreme price spikes. This study analyzes the impact of an increased share of renewable energy sources on the behavior of price and volumes of the Italian balancing market. Starting from configurations of load and power production, which guarantee a stable performance, we implement fluctuations in the load and in renewables; in particular we artificially increase the contribution of renewables as compared to conventional power sources to cover the total load. We then determine the amount of requested energy in the balancing market and its fluctuations, which are induced by production and consumption. Within an approach of agent-based modeling we estimate the resulting energy prices and costs. While their average values turn out to be only slightly affected by an increased contribution from renewables, the probability for extreme price events is shown to increase along with undesired peaks in the costs. Our methodology provides a tool for estimating outliers in prices obtained in the energy balancing market, once data of consumption, production and their typical fluctuations are provided.

  3. The association between attempted suicide and stock price movements: Evidence from Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Chung-Liang; Liu, Tsai-Ching; Chen, Chin-Shyan

    2017-08-01

    This study is the first comprehensive analysis to investigate the potential association between stock market fluctuations and attempted suicide events as measured by self-inflicted injuries treated in hospitalization. Using nationwide, 15-year population-based data from 1998 through 2012, we observe that the occurrences for the hospitalizations of attempted suicides are apparently predicted by stock price movements. A low stock price index, a daily fall in the stock index, and consecutive daily falls in the stock index have been shown to be associated with increased risk of hospitalization in patients with attempted suicide. More specifically, stock price index is found to be significant impact on attempted suicide in the 45-54 age groups of both genders, whilst daily change is significant for both genders in the 25-34 and 55-64 age groups and accumulated change is only significant in female aged 25-44 and above 65. On the basis of the results, relevant organizations should consider the suicidal factors that relate prime-working-age and near-retirement-age people to better carry out specific suicide prevention measures, and, meanwhile, encourage those people to pay less attention towards daily stock price movements. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Asymmetry in retail gasoline and crude oil price movements in the United States. An application of hidden cointegration technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Honarvar, Afshin

    2009-01-01

    There is a common belief that gasoline prices respond more quickly to crude oil price increases than decreases. Some economists and politicians believe that asymmetry in oil and gasoline price movements is the outcome of a non-competitive gasoline market requiring that governments take policy action to address 'unfair pricing'. There is no consensus as to the existence, or nature, of the asymmetric relationship between prices of gasoline and crude oil. Much of this literature specifies asymmetry in the speed of adjustment and short-run adjustment coefficients. In contrast, Granger and Yoon's [Granger, C.W. and Yoon, G. 'Hidden Cointegration', University of California, San Diego, Department of Economics Working Paper, (2002).] Crouching Error Correction Model (CECM) identifies asymmetry of the cointegrating vectors between components (cumulative positive and negative changes) of the series. Applying the CECM to retail gasoline and crude oil prices for the U.S., we find that there is only evidence of cointegration between positive components of crude oil prices and negative components of gasoline prices. In contrast to the literature which attributes asymmetric price movements to market power of refiners, these findings suggest that gasoline prices -in the long run- are more influenced by the technological changes on the demand side than crude oil price movements on the supply side. (author)

  5. Market-wide price co-movement around crashes in the Tokyo Stock Exchange

    OpenAIRE

    Jun-ichi Maskawa; Joshin Murai; Koji Kuroda

    2013-01-01

    As described in this paper, we study market-wide price co-movements around crashes by analyzing a dataset of high-frequency stock returns of the constituent issues of Nikkei 225 Index listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange for the three years during 2007--2009. Results of day-to-day principal component analysis of the time series sampled at the 1 min time interval during the continuous auction of the daytime reveal the long range up to a couple of months significant auto-correlation of the maximu...

  6. General movements in the first fourteen days of life in extremely low birth weight (ELBW) infants

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Vries, N. K. S.; Erwich, J. J. H. M.; Bos, A. F.

    2008-01-01

    Objective: To assess the quality of general movements (GMs) in the first fourteen days of life in relation to obstetric and postnatal risk factors and neurodevelopmental outcome in extremely low birth weight (ELBW) infants. Study design: The GMs of nineteen infants were assessed on days 2, 4, 6, 10

  7. Identifying compensatory movement patterns in the upper extremity using a wearable sensor system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranganathan, Rajiv; Wang, Rui; Dong, Bo; Biswas, Subir

    2017-11-30

    Movement impairments such as those due to stroke often result in the nervous system adopting atypical movements to compensate for movement deficits. Monitoring these compensatory patterns is critical for improving functional outcomes during rehabilitation. The purpose of this study was to test the feasibility and validity of a wearable sensor system for detecting compensatory trunk kinematics during activities of daily living. Participants with no history of neurological impairments performed reaching and manipulation tasks with their upper extremity, and their movements were recorded by a wearable sensor system and validated using a motion capture system. Compensatory movements of the trunk were induced using a brace that limited range of motion at the elbow. Our results showed that the elbow brace elicited compensatory movements of the trunk during reaching tasks but not manipulation tasks, and that a wearable sensor system with two sensors could reliably classify compensatory movements (~90% accuracy). These results show the potential of the wearable system to assess and monitor compensatory movements outside of a lab setting.

  8. Which way the natural gas price. An attempt to predict the direction of natural gas spot price movements using trader positions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buchanan, W.K.; Hodges, P.; Theis, J.

    2001-01-01

    This research provides a method of predicting direction of spot price movements in the natural gas market for the month succeeding from market participants positions in the futures market. Cumby and Modest (Cumby, R.E., Modest, D.M., 1987. Testing for market timing ability: a framework for forecast evaluation. Journal of Financial Economics 19, 169-189) provide the backdrop for analyzing the futures market positions of large hedgers and speculators to arrive at conclusions of market price movements in the spot market. This methodology is suggested as a means for municipalities entering the natural gas market to improve upon their ordering of quantities of gas for the ensuing months in order to take advantage of possibly foreseeable price trends

  9. Quantitative assessment based on kinematic measures of functional impairments during upper extremity movements: A review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de los Reyes-Guzmán, Ana; Dimbwadyo-Terrer, Iris; Trincado-Alonso, Fernando; Monasterio-Huelin, Félix; Torricelli, Diego; Gil-Agudo, Angel

    2014-08-01

    Quantitative measures of human movement quality are important for discriminating healthy and pathological conditions and for expressing the outcomes and clinically important changes in subjects' functional state. However the most frequently used instruments for the upper extremity functional assessment are clinical scales, that previously have been standardized and validated, but have a high subjective component depending on the observer who scores the test. But they are not enough to assess motor strategies used during movements, and their use in combination with other more objective measures is necessary. The objective of the present review is to provide an overview on objective metrics found in literature with the aim of quantifying the upper extremity performance during functional tasks, regardless of the equipment or system used for registering kinematic data. A search in Medline, Google Scholar and IEEE Xplore databases was performed following a combination of a series of keywords. The full scientific papers that fulfilled the inclusion criteria were included in the review. A set of kinematic metrics was found in literature in relation to joint displacements, analysis of hand trajectories and velocity profiles. These metrics were classified into different categories according to the movement characteristic that was being measured. These kinematic metrics provide the starting point for a proposed objective metrics for the functional assessment of the upper extremity in people with movement disorders as a consequence of neurological injuries. Potential areas of future and further research are presented in the Discussion section. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Capture, learning, and classification of upper extremity movement primitives in healthy controls and stroke patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerra, Jorge; Uddin, Jasim; Nilsen, Dawn; Mclnerney, James; Fadoo, Ammarah; Omofuma, Isirame B; Hughes, Shatif; Agrawal, Sunil; Allen, Peter; Schambra, Heidi M

    2017-07-01

    There currently exist no practical tools to identify functional movements in the upper extremities (UEs). This absence has limited the precise therapeutic dosing of patients recovering from stroke. In this proof-of-principle study, we aimed to develop an accurate approach for classifying UE functional movement primitives, which comprise functional movements. Data were generated from inertial measurement units (IMUs) placed on upper body segments of older healthy individuals and chronic stroke patients. Subjects performed activities commonly trained during rehabilitation after stroke. Data processing involved the use of a sliding window to obtain statistical descriptors, and resulting features were processed by a Hidden Markov Model (HMM). The likelihoods of the states, resulting from the HMM, were segmented by a second sliding window and their averages were calculated. The final predictions were mapped to human functional movement primitives using a Logistic Regression algorithm. Algorithm performance was assessed with a leave-one-out analysis, which determined its sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values for all classified primitives. In healthy control and stroke participants, our approach identified functional movement primitives embedded in training activities with, on average, 80% precision. This approach may support functional movement dosing in stroke rehabilitation.

  11. Validity of the lower extremity functional movement screen in patients with chronic ankle instability

    OpenAIRE

    Choi, Ho-Suk; Shin, Won-Seob

    2015-01-01

    [Purpose] The purpose of this study was to provide evidence of construct validity for the lower extremity functional movement screen (LE-FMS) based on hypothesis testing in patients with chronic ankle instability (CAI). [Subjects] The subjects were 20 healthy subjects and 20 patients with CAI who had a history of ankle sprain with pain for more than 1 day. [Methods] All participants were measured using the Foot and Ankle Disability Index (FADI) and evaluated with the LE-FMS. The screen includ...

  12. Foreign exchange market data analysis reveals statistical features that predict price movement acceleration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nacher, Jose C; Ochiai, Tomoshiro

    2012-05-01

    Increasingly accessible financial data allow researchers to infer market-dynamics-based laws and to propose models that are able to reproduce them. In recent years, several stylized facts have been uncovered. Here we perform an extensive analysis of foreign exchange data that leads to the unveiling of a statistical financial law. First, our findings show that, on average, volatility increases more when the price exceeds the highest (or lowest) value, i.e., breaks the resistance line. We call this the breaking-acceleration effect. Second, our results show that the probability P(T) to break the resistance line in the past time T follows power law in both real data and theoretically simulated data. However, the probability calculated using real data is rather lower than the one obtained using a traditional Black-Scholes (BS) model. Taken together, the present analysis characterizes a different stylized fact of financial markets and shows that the market exceeds a past (historical) extreme price fewer times than expected by the BS model (the resistance effect). However, when the market does, we predict that the average volatility at that time point will be much higher. These findings indicate that any Markovian model does not faithfully capture the market dynamics.

  13. Research on Three-dimensional Motion History Image Model and Extreme Learning Machine for Human Body Movement Trajectory Recognition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zheng Chang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the traditional machine vision recognition technology and traditional artificial neural networks about body movement trajectory, this paper finds out the shortcomings of the traditional recognition technology. By combining the invariant moments of the three-dimensional motion history image (computed as the eigenvector of body movements and the extreme learning machine (constructed as the classification artificial neural network of body movements, the paper applies the method to the machine vision of the body movement trajectory. In detail, the paper gives a detailed introduction about the algorithm and realization scheme of the body movement trajectory recognition based on the three-dimensional motion history image and the extreme learning machine. Finally, by comparing with the results of the recognition experiments, it attempts to verify that the method of body movement trajectory recognition technology based on the three-dimensional motion history image and extreme learning machine has a more accurate recognition rate and better robustness.

  14. Using neural networks and extreme value distributions to model electricity pool prices: Evidence from the Australian National Electricity Market 1998–2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dev, Priya; Martin, Michael A.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Neural nets are unable to properly capture spiky price behavior found in the electricity market. • We modeled electricity price data from the Australian National Electricity Market over 15 years. • Neural nets need to be augmented with other modeling techniques to capture price spikes. • We fit a Generalized Pareto Distribution to price spikes using a peaks-over-thresholds approach. - Abstract: Competitors in the electricity supply industry desire accurate predictions of electricity spot prices to hedge against financial risks. Neural networks are commonly used for forecasting such prices, but certain features of spot price series, such as extreme price spikes, present critical challenges for such modeling. We investigate the predictive capacity of neural networks for electricity spot prices using Australian National Electricity Market data. Following neural net modeling of the data, we explore extreme price spikes through extreme value modeling, fitting a Generalized Pareto Distribution to price peaks over an estimated threshold. While neural nets capture the smoother aspects of spot price data, they are unable to capture local, volatile features that characterize electricity spot price data. Price spikes can be modeled successfully through extreme value modeling

  15. Predicting Sport and Occupational Lower Extremity Injury Risk through Movement Quality Screening: A Systematic Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whittaker, Jackie L; Booysen, Nadine; de la Motte, Sarah; Dennett, Liz; Lewis, Cara L.; Wilson, Dave; McKay, Carly; Warner, Martin; Padua, Darin; Emery, Carolyn A; Stokes, Maria

    2017-01-01

    Background Identification of risk factors for lower extremity (LE) injury in sport and military/first-responder occupations is required to inform injury prevention strategies. Objective To determine if poor movement quality is associated with LE injury in sport and military/first-responder occupations. Material and methods Five electronic databases were systematically searched. Studies selected included: original data; analytic design; movement quality outcome (qualitative rating of functional compensation, asymmetry, impairment or efficiency of movement control); LE injury sustained with sport or military/first-responder occupation. The PRISMA guidelines were followed. Two independent authors assessed the quality [Downs and Black (DB) criteria] and level of evidence (Oxford Centre of Evidence-Based Medicine model). Results Of 4361 potential studies, 17 were included. The majority were low quality cohort studies (level 4 evidence). Median DB score was 11/33 (range 3–15). Heterogeneity in methodology and injury definition precluded meta-analyses. The Functional Movement Screen was the most common outcome investigated (15/17 studies). Four studies considered interrelationships between risk factors, seven reported diagnostic accuracy and none tested an intervention program targeting individuals identified as high-risk. There is inconsistent evidence that poor movement quality is associated with increased risk of LE injury in sport and military/first-responder occupations. Conclusions Future research should focus on high quality cohort studies to identify the most relevant movement quality outcomes for predicting injury risk followed by developing and evaluating pre-participation screening and LE injury prevention programs through high quality randomized controlled trials targeting individuals at greater risk of injury based upon screening tests with validated test properties. PMID:27935483

  16. Predicting sport and occupational lower extremity injury risk through movement quality screening: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whittaker, Jackie L; Booysen, Nadine; de la Motte, Sarah; Dennett, Liz; Lewis, Cara L; Wilson, Dave; McKay, Carly; Warner, Martin; Padua, Darin; Emery, Carolyn A; Stokes, Maria

    2017-04-01

    Identification of risk factors for lower extremity (LE) injury in sport and military/first-responder occupations is required to inform injury prevention strategies. To determine if poor movement quality is associated with LE injury in sport and military/first-responder occupations. 5 electronic databases were systematically searched. Studies selected included original data; analytic design; movement quality outcome (qualitative rating of functional compensation, asymmetry, impairment or efficiency of movement control); LE injury sustained with sport or military/first-responder occupation. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines were followed. 2 independent authors assessed the quality (Downs and Black (DB) criteria) and level of evidence (Oxford Centre of Evidence-Based Medicine model). Of 4361 potential studies, 17 were included. The majority were low-quality cohort studies (level 4 evidence). Median DB score was 11/33 (range 3-15). Heterogeneity in methodology and injury definition precluded meta-analyses. The Functional Movement Screen was the most common outcome investigated (15/17 studies). 4 studies considered inter-relationships between risk factors, 7 reported diagnostic accuracy and none tested an intervention programme targeting individuals identified as high risk. There is inconsistent evidence that poor movement quality is associated with increased risk of LE injury in sport and military/first-responder occupations. Future research should focus on high-quality cohort studies to identify the most relevant movement quality outcomes for predicting injury risk followed by developing and evaluating preparticipation screening and LE injury prevention programmes through high-quality randomised controlled trials targeting individuals at greater risk of injury based on screening tests with validated test properties. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted

  17. Eliciting upper extremity purposeful movements using video games: a comparison with traditional therapy for stroke rehabilitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rand, Debbie; Givon, Noa; Weingarden, Harold; Nota, Ayala; Zeilig, Gabi

    2014-10-01

    Video games have become popular in stroke rehabilitation; however, the nature of this intervention is not fully understood. To compare the number of (a) purposeful and nonpurposeful repetitions of the weaker upper extremity (UE) and (b) movement accelerations as assessed by accelerometer activity counts of the weaker and stronger UEs of individuals with chronic stroke while playing video games or participating in traditional therapy. Twenty-nine individuals (mean age 59 years, 1-7 years poststroke) took part in a group intervention of video -games (n = 15) or traditional therapy (n = 14) as part of a randomized controlled trial. During 1-2 sessions, participants were video-taped while wearing wrist accelerometers. Assessors counted the number of repetitions and classified movements as purposeful or nonpurposeful using videotapes. The weaker UE motor impairments were correlated to movement accelerations, to determine if participants were using their potential during the sessions. Participants in the video game group performed a median of 271 purposeful movements and 37 970 activity counts compared to 48 purposeful movements and 14,872 activity counts in the traditional group (z = -3.0, P = .001 and z = -1.9, P = .05, respectively). Participants in the traditional group performed a median of 26 nonpurposeful (exercises) compared with 0 in the video game group (z = -4.2, P = .000). Strong significant correlations were found between the motor ability of the weak UE to repetitions of participants in both groups (r = .86, P Video games elicited more UE purposeful repetitions and higher acceleration of movement compared with traditional therapy in individuals with chronic stroke. © The Author(s) 2014.

  18. Price movements guided by the OPEC cartel, when there is a possible increase on prices inside the Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alex Paubel Junger

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of this paper is to calculate the estimation of oil supply and demand in the last 12 quarters (2013-2015, using an OLSconometric model, indicating the supply and demand of the market, in a second moment the oil market current supply and demand curves would be indicated for the average price of Brent oil in the abovementioned period. So that in a second moment the "dead weight" of OPEC's economic price model is calculated and how this deadweight economically affects the oil and gas market globally, economically withdrawing the profits that the main producers could obtain if OPEC did not set the price artificially in unstable political scenarios. Lastly, regarding the global economy, and more precisely, the loss in the energy through financial results due the actions taken by OPEC led by Saudi Arabia and its partners in the Middle East, indicating the market failures caused by a cartel.

  19. Estimating the impact of extreme events on crude oil price. An EMD-based event analysis method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Xun; Wang, Shouyang; Yu, Lean; Lai, Kin Keung

    2009-01-01

    The impact of extreme events on crude oil markets is of great importance in crude oil price analysis due to the fact that those events generally exert strong impact on crude oil markets. For better estimation of the impact of events on crude oil price volatility, this study attempts to use an EMD-based event analysis approach for this task. In the proposed method, the time series to be analyzed is first decomposed into several intrinsic modes with different time scales from fine-to-coarse and an average trend. The decomposed modes respectively capture the fluctuations caused by the extreme event or other factors during the analyzed period. It is found that the total impact of an extreme event is included in only one or several dominant modes, but the secondary modes provide valuable information on subsequent factors. For overlapping events with influences lasting for different periods, their impacts are separated and located in different modes. For illustration and verification purposes, two extreme events, the Persian Gulf War in 1991 and the Iraq War in 2003, are analyzed step by step. The empirical results reveal that the EMD-based event analysis method provides a feasible solution to estimating the impact of extreme events on crude oil prices variation. (author)

  20. Estimating the impact of extreme events on crude oil price. An EMD-based event analysis method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Xun; Wang, Shouyang [Institute of Systems Science, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); School of Mathematical Sciences, Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Yu, Lean [Institute of Systems Science, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Lai, Kin Keung [Department of Management Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon (China)

    2009-09-15

    The impact of extreme events on crude oil markets is of great importance in crude oil price analysis due to the fact that those events generally exert strong impact on crude oil markets. For better estimation of the impact of events on crude oil price volatility, this study attempts to use an EMD-based event analysis approach for this task. In the proposed method, the time series to be analyzed is first decomposed into several intrinsic modes with different time scales from fine-to-coarse and an average trend. The decomposed modes respectively capture the fluctuations caused by the extreme event or other factors during the analyzed period. It is found that the total impact of an extreme event is included in only one or several dominant modes, but the secondary modes provide valuable information on subsequent factors. For overlapping events with influences lasting for different periods, their impacts are separated and located in different modes. For illustration and verification purposes, two extreme events, the Persian Gulf War in 1991 and the Iraq War in 2003, are analyzed step by step. The empirical results reveal that the EMD-based event analysis method provides a feasible solution to estimating the impact of extreme events on crude oil prices variation. (author)

  1. Excessive price reduction and extreme volatility in wind dominant electricity markets; solutions and emerging challenges

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Farashbashi-Astaneh, Seyed-Mostafa; Chen, Zhe; Mousavi, Omid Alizadeh

    2013-01-01

    High intermittency in the nature of wind power emphasize conceptual revising in the mechanisms of electricity markets with high wind power penetration levels. This paper introduces overmuch price reduction and high price volatility as two adverse consequences in future wind dominant electricity...... is developed. The paper indicates discriminatory pricing approach can be beneficial in high penetration of wind power because it alleviates high price variations and spikiness in one hand and prevents overmuch price reduction in wind dominant electricity markets on the other hand....... markets. While high price volatility imposes elevated risk levels for both electricity suppliers and consumers, excessive price reduction of electricity is a disincentive for investment in new generation capacity and might jeopardizes system adequacy in long term. A comparative study between marginal...

  2. Quantitative Motion Analysis of Tai Chi Chuan: The Upper Extremity Movement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tsung-Jung Ho

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The quantitative and reproducible analysis of the standard body movement in Tai Chi Chuan (TCC was performed in this study. We aimed to provide a reference of the upper extremities for standardizing TCC practice. Microsoft Kinect was used to record the motion during the practice of TCC. The preparation form and eight essential forms of TCC performed by an instructor and 101 practitioners were analyzed in this study. The instructor completed an entire TCC practice cycle and performed the cycle 12 times. An entire cycle of TCC was performed by practitioners and images were recorded for statistics analysis. The performance of the instructor showed high similarity (Pearson correlation coefficient (r=0.71~0.84 to the first practice cycle. Among the 9 forms, lay form had the highest similarity (rmean=0.90 and push form had the lowest similarity (rmean=0.52. For the practitioners, ward off form (rmean=0.51 and roll back form (rmean=0.45 had the highest similarity with moderate correlation. We used Microsoft Kinect to record the spatial coordinates of the upper extremity joints during the practice of TCC and the data to perform quantitative and qualitative analysis of the joint positions and elbow joint angle.

  3. Co-movements of Alaska North Slope and UK Brent crude oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ewing, B.T.; Harter, C.L.

    2000-01-01

    In order to study the inter-relationships of international crude oil markets, empirical analyses are used to investigate univariate and multivariate relationships between Alaska North Slope and UK Brent oil prices. Using monthly data from the period 1974-1996, the results show that both price series follow a random walk and that these oil markets share a long-run common trend. The empirical results suggest that the two markets are 'unified'. That is, they are competitive, and there is price convergence in the markets. (author)

  4. Physiologically Relevant Prosthetic Limb Movement Feedback for Upper and Lower Extremity Amputees

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-10-01

    upper arm (elbow movement), Upper leg (knee movement) and lower leg ( ankle movement) to provide a physiologically relevant sense of limb movement...Additionally a BOA cable tensioning system is passed through these plates and anchored to the external surface of the socket. When tension is applied the

  5. Price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1991-01-01

    The price terms in wheeling contracts very substantially, reflecting the differing conditions affecting the parties contracting for the service. These terms differ in the manner in which rates are calculated, the formulas used, and the philosophy underlying the accord. For example, and EEI study found that firm wheeling rates ranged from 20 cents to $1.612 per kilowatt per month. Nonfirm rates ranged from .15 mills to 5.25 mills per kilowatt-hour. The focus in this chapter is on cost-based rates, reflecting the fact that the vast majority of existing contracts are based on rate designs reflecting embedded costs. This situation may change in the future, but, for now, this fact can't be ignored

  6. Optimal models of extreme volume-prices are time-dependent

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rocha, Paulo; Boto, João Pedro; Raischel, Frank; Lind, Pedro G

    2015-01-01

    We present evidence that the best model for empirical volume-price distributions is not always the same and it strongly depends in (i) the region of the volume-price spectrum that one wants to model and (ii) the period in time that is being modelled. To show these two features we analyze stocks of the New York stock market with four different models: Γ, Γ-inverse, log-normal, and Weibull distributions. To evaluate the accuracy of each model we use standard relative deviations as well as the Kullback-Leibler distance and introduce an additional distance particularly suited to evaluate how accurate are the models for the distribution tails (large volume-price). Finally we put our findings in perspective and discuss how they can be extended to other situations in finance engineering

  7. Upper Extremity Motor Learning among Individuals with Parkinson's Disease: A Meta-Analysis Evaluating Movement Time in Simple Tasks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Felix

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Motor learning has been found to occur in the rehabilitation of individuals with Parkinson's disease (PD. Through repetitive structured practice of motor tasks, individuals show improved performance, confirming that motor learning has probably taken place. Although a number of studies have been completed evaluating motor learning in people with PD, the sample sizes were small and the improvements were variable. The purpose of this meta-analysis was to determine the ability of people with PD to learn motor tasks. Studies which measured movement time in upper extremity reaching tasks and met the inclusion criteria were included in the analysis. Results of the meta-analysis indicated that people with PD and neurologically healthy controls both demonstrated motor learning, characterized by a decrease in movement time during upper extremity movements. Movement time improvements were greater in the control group than in individuals with PD. These results support the findings that the practice of upper extremity reaching tasks is beneficial in reducing movement time in persons with PD and has important implications for rehabilitation.

  8. Validity of the lower extremity functional movement screen in patients with chronic ankle instability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Ho-Suk; Shin, Won-Seob

    2015-06-01

    [Purpose] The purpose of this study was to provide evidence of construct validity for the lower extremity functional movement screen (LE-FMS) based on hypothesis testing in patients with chronic ankle instability (CAI). [Subjects] The subjects were 20 healthy subjects and 20 patients with CAI who had a history of ankle sprain with pain for more than 1 day. [Methods] All participants were measured using the Foot and Ankle Disability Index (FADI) and evaluated with the LE-FMS. The screen included the deep squat, the hurdle step (HS) and the in-line lunge (ILL). The symmetry ratios (RS) were accurately measured during the deep squat trial. [Results] Between the two groups, there were significant differences in scores on the LE-FMS, HS, ILL, RS, FADI, and FADI-sport. The FADI was strongly correlated with both LE-FMS score (r=0.807) and ILL score (r=0.896). There was a strong relationship (r=0.818) between LE-FMS score and FADI-sport. [Conclusion] These results suggest that the LE-FMS may be used to detect deficits related to CAI. Additionally, this instrument is reliable in detecting functional limitations in patients with CAI.

  9. Determinants of Stock Price Movements: Evidence from Chittagong Stock Exchange, Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed Syedul Islam

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Stock market plays a vital role in the economic development of an economy. It bridges up between savers and real manufacturers by raising funds from investors to companies. This process was broken down due to the 2010-2011 stock market crash in Bangladesh. Though the determinants of stock price have been settled empirically, the current paper aims to reexamine the relationship between stock price, dividend and retained earnings of 29 listed banks of Chittagong Stock Exchange, in the post-crash period. Cross-sectional data were collected from secondary sources. Using linear regression method, the study found that both, dividend and retained earnings of sample banks have strong influence over the stock price, though there was moderate explanatory power of those variables. After reviewing the causes of crisis 2010-2011, this study suggests the following: to control price manipulation, to publish proper financial statement, regulate the dividend policy, to ensure sufficient knowledge among investors, recruit technical expert and ensure proper settlement for transactions, prevent crises of stock market against speculation etc.

  10. Extreme Weather and Civil War in Somalia: Does Drought Fuel Conflict through Livestock Price Shocks?

    OpenAIRE

    Maystadt, Jean-Francois; Ecker, Olivier; Mabiso, Athur

    2013-01-01

    Climate change leads to more frequent and more intense droughts in Somalia. In a global context, weather shocks have been found to perpetuate poverty and fuel civil conflict. By relating regional and temporal variations in violent conflict outbreaks with drought incidence and severity, we show that this causality is valid also for Somalia at the local level. We find that livestock price shocks drive drought-induced conflicts through reducing the opportunity costs of conflict participation. Ou...

  11. Medium-Term Probabilistic Forecasting of Extremely Low Prices in Electricity Markets: Application to the Spanish Case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Bello

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available One of the most relevant challenges that have arisen in electricity markets during the last few years is the emergence of extremely low prices. Trying to predict these events is crucial for market agents in a competitive environment. This paper proposes a novel methodology to simultaneously accomplish punctual and probabilistic hourly predictions about the appearance of extremely low electricity prices in a medium-term scope. The proposed approach for making real ex ante forecasts consists of a nested compounding of different forecasting techniques, which incorporate Monte Carlo simulation, combined with spatial interpolation techniques. The procedure is based on the statistical identification of the process key drivers. Logistic regression for rare events, decision trees, multilayer perceptrons and a hybrid approach, which combines a market equilibrium model with logistic regression, are used. Moreover, this paper assesses whether periodic models in which parameters switch according to the day of the week can be even more accurate. The proposed techniques are compared to a Markov regime switching model and several naive methods. The proposed methodology empirically demonstrates its effectiveness by achieving promising results on a real case study based on the Spanish electricity market. This approach can provide valuable information for market agents when they face decision making and risk-management processes. Our findings support the additional benefit of using a hybrid approach for deriving more accurate predictions.

  12. Statistical techniques for modeling extreme price dynamics in the energy market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mbugua, L N; Mwita, P N

    2013-01-01

    Extreme events have large impact throughout the span of engineering, science and economics. This is because extreme events often lead to failure and losses due to the nature unobservable of extra ordinary occurrences. In this context this paper focuses on appropriate statistical methods relating to a combination of quantile regression approach and extreme value theory to model the excesses. This plays a vital role in risk management. Locally, nonparametric quantile regression is used, a method that is flexible and best suited when one knows little about the functional forms of the object being estimated. The conditions are derived in order to estimate the extreme value distribution function. The threshold model of extreme values is used to circumvent the lack of adequate observation problem at the tail of the distribution function. The application of a selection of these techniques is demonstrated on the volatile fuel market. The results indicate that the method used can extract maximum possible reliable information from the data. The key attraction of this method is that it offers a set of ready made approaches to the most difficult problem of risk modeling.

  13. Financial Fundamental Influence Analysis, SBI Interest Level and the Inflation Level of Share Price Movement

    OpenAIRE

    Sularto, Lana; Permana, Yogi

    2008-01-01

    A number of relevant information is required by investors who are interested in investing their funds in a capital market, especially in the form of stocks. An efficient capital market is that market that provides all relevant information to stock prices. This information could be obtained through fundamental financial performance of emiten and macroeconomic conditions. The present study aims are to analyze the effect of fundamen...

  14. Public sentiment analysis in Twitter data for prediction of a company's stock price movements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, B.; Chan, K.C.C.; Ou, C.X.J.; Li, Y.; Guo, J.

    2014-01-01

    There has recently been some effort to mine social media for public sentiment analysis. Studies have suggested that public emotions shown through Tweeter may well be correlated with the Dow Jones Industrial Average. However, can public sentiment be analyzed to predict the movements of the stock

  15. Movement characteristics of upper extremity prostheses during basic goal-directed tasks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouwsema, Hanneke; van der Sluis, Corry K.; Bongers, Raoul M.

    Background: After an upper limb amputation a prosthesis is often used to restore the functionality. However, the frequency of prostheses use is generally low. Movement kinematics of prostheses use might suggest origins of this low use. The aim of this study was to reveal movement patterns of

  16. Older women with dementia can perform fast alternating forearm movements and performance is correlated with tests of lower extremity function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bramell-Risberg E

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Eva Bramell-Risberg,1 Gun-Britt Jarnlo,2 Sölve Elmståhl11Division of Geriatric Medicine, 2Division of Physiotherapy, Department of Health Sciences, Lund University, Lund, SwedenBackground: The purpose of this work was to study the performance and reliability of a test of fast alternating forearm movements and its relationship with measures of lower extremity function in older women with dementia.Methods: Fast alternating movements was studied in 26 female patients (mean age 81.7 ± 5.9 years with dementia and 34 controls (mean age 87.5 ± 4.7 years. Subgroup analyses for those aged 80–89 years were performed due to significant differences in the mean ages of the study groups. Test–retest reliability for alternating forearm movements was studied in 11 patients (mean age 80.3 ± 6.7 years and 10 controls (mean age 87.4 ± 1.6 years. Pulses generated were transformed to an analog signal shown on a modified electrocardiogram. Numbers of cycles at 10 and 15 seconds were calculated for the right and left hand. Walking 2 × 15 m and the Get-Up-and Go (GUG test were performed at self-selected and maximal speed. Associations between tests of upper and lower extremity function were sought in eight patients (mean age 85 ± 2.7 years and 16 controls (mean age 85.1 ± 2.8 years and also according to types of dementia in nine patients with probable Alzheimer's disease and 10 patients with other types of dementia.Results: Patients with dementia could perform the test and had significantly fewer cycles (P = 0.02–0.006 at both 10 and 15 seconds compared with controls after age adjustment. A higher number of cycles was associated with higher self-selected walking speeds in patients (r = -0.79. Test–retest reliability for alternating forearm movements was high for both patients (intraclass correlation 0.88–0.94 and controls (intraclass correlation 0.74–0.94.Conclusion: Alternating forearm movements at fast speed can be used as a reliable test in both

  17. Fundamental and Financial Influences on the Co-movement of Oil and Gas Prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bunn, Derek; Chevallier, Julien; Le Pen, Yannick; Sevi, Benoit

    2013-01-01

    As both speculative and hedging financial flows into commodity futures are expected to link commodity price formation more strongly to equity indices, we investigate whether these processes also create increased correlation amongst the commodities themselves. Considering U.S. oil and gas futures, using the large approximate factor models methodology we investigate whether common factors derived from a large international dataset of real and nominal macro variables are able to explain both returns and whether, beyond these fundamental common factors, the residuals remain correlated. We further investigate a possible explanation for this residual correlation by using some proxies for hedging and speculative activity, showing that speculation increases and hedging reduces the inter-commodity correlations. (authors)

  18. Implementation phase - future price movements guidelines for a new tariff system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mozina, J.

    1996-01-01

    Natural gas reserves in Slovenia are negligible and, therefore, almost all natural gas has to be imported. The natural gas sources are geographically far from Slovenia, and this fact has a great impact first on costs for providing natural gas, and second, on the possibilities to adjust natural gas prices with other alternative and competitive fuels. Countries that are geographically closer to natural gas sources have lower fixed costs in providing natural gas, while in the case of Slovenia fixed costs could exceed half of total costs. Therefore, those countries may have an essentially different market attitude and behaviour. In Slovenia, there are two levels of supplying customers with the natural gas, i.e.: (a) supplies through the Slovenian natural gas pipeline system to industry and distribution companies; (b) supplies through local distribution networks to households, commercial customers and minor industrial customers. With regard to certain differences existing between those two levels, each level has been using a specific system of setting natural gas price as well as a particular tariff system. This paper refers only to supplying the level mentioned under point a. The new tariff system needs to consider first of all the modes of the natural gas use and possibilities of alternative fuels use. On this basis it shall define competitive conditions, convenient for supplying the natural gas to all categories of customers. The system is going to be introduced in several steps so that all necessary and unavoidable changes shall be gradually implemented. A complete introduction of the new, and to the energy market better adjusted tariff system, depends on a simultaneous introduction of fiscal changes. Due to the great dependence of the introduction of the new tariff system on the appropriate fiscal and tax energy regime, the time necessary for a full introduction may vary. We estimate that the tariff system could be fully introduced in about two-year period, once it

  19. Do food and oil prices co-move?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reboredo, Juan C.

    2012-01-01

    This paper studies co-movements between world oil prices and global prices for corn, soybean and wheat using copulas. Several copula models with different conditional dependence structures and time-varying dependence parameters were considered. Empirical results for weekly data from January 1998 to April 2011 showed weak oil-food dependence and no extreme market dependence between oil and food prices. These results support the neutrality of agricultural commodity markets to the effects of changes in oil prices and non-contagion between the crude oil and agricultural markets. However, dependence increased significantly in the last three years of the sampling period, even though upper tail dependence remained insignificant, indicating that food price spikes are not caused by positive extreme oil price changes. These results have implications for policy design, risk management and hedging strategies. - Highlights: ► We study co-movement between food and oil markets through copulas. ► Food prices are neutral to the effects of changes in oil prices. ► Oil price spikes had no causal effect on agricultural price spikes. ► Oil–corn and oil–soybean dependence increased in recent years. ► Food subsidy policies and price controls are unnecessary to avoid extreme oil prices.

  20. Using Wearable Sensors and Machine Learning Models to Separate Functional Upper Extremity Use From Walking-Associated Arm Movements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLeod, Adam; Bochniewicz, Elaine M; Lum, Peter S; Holley, Rahsaan J; Emmer, Geoff; Dromerick, Alexander W

    2016-02-01

    To improve measurement of upper extremity (UE) use in the community by evaluating the feasibility of using body-worn sensor data and machine learning models to distinguish productive prehensile and bimanual UE activity use from extraneous movements associated with walking. Comparison of machine learning classification models with criterion standard of manually scored videos of performance in UE prosthesis users. Rehabilitation hospital training apartment. Convenience sample of UE prosthesis users (n=5) and controls (n=13) similar in age and hand dominance (N=18). Participants were filmed executing a series of functional activities; a trained observer annotated each frame to indicate either UE movement directed at functional activity or walking. Synchronized data from an inertial sensor attached to the dominant wrist were similarly classified as indicating either a functional use or walking. These data were used to train 3 classification models to predict the functional versus walking state given the associated sensor information. Models were trained over 4 trials: on UE amputees and controls and both within subject and across subject. Model performance was also examined with and without preprocessing (centering) in the across-subject trials. Percent correct classification. With the exception of the amputee/across-subject trial, at least 1 model classified >95% of test data correctly for all trial types. The top performer in the amputee/across-subject trial classified 85% of test examples correctly. We have demonstrated that computationally lightweight classification models can use inertial data collected from wrist-worn sensors to reliably distinguish prosthetic UE movements during functional use from walking-associated movement. This approach has promise in objectively measuring real-world UE use of prosthetic limbs and may be helpful in clinical trials and in measuring response to treatment of other UE pathologies. Copyright © 2016 American Congress of

  1. Changes in lower extremity movement and power absorption during forefoot striking and barefoot running.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, D S Blaise; Green, Douglas H; Wurzinger, Brian

    2012-10-01

    Both forefoot strike shod (FFS) and barefoot (BF) running styles result in different mechanics when compared to rearfoot strike (RFS) shod running. Additionally, running mechanics of FFS and BF running are similar to one another. Comparing the mechanical changes occurring in each of these patterns is necessary to understand potential benefits and risks of these running styles. The authors hypothesized that FFS and BF conditions would result in increased sagittal plane joint angles at initial contact and that FFS and BF conditions would demonstrate a shift in sagittal plane joint power from the knee to the ankle when compared to the RFS condition. Finally, total lower extremity power absorption will be least in BF and greatest in the RFS shod condition. The study included 10 male and 10 female RFS runners who completed 3-dimensional running analysis in 3 conditions: shod with RFS, shod with FFS, and BF. Variables were the angles of plantarflexion, knee flexion, and hip flexion at initial contact and peak sagittal plane joint power at the hip, knee, and ankle during stance phase. Running with a FFS pattern and BF resulted in significantly greater plantarflexion and significantly less negative knee power (absorption) when compared to shod RFS condition. FFS condition runners landed in the most plantarflexion and demonstrated the most peak ankle power absorption and lowest knee power absorption between the 3 conditions. BF and FFS conditions demonstrated decreased total lower extremity power absorption compared to the shod RFS condition but did not differ from one another. BF and FFS running result in reduced total lower extremity power, hip power and knee power and a shift of power absorption from the knee to the ankle. Alterations associated with BF running patterns are present in a FFS pattern when wearing shoes. Additionally, both patterns result in increased demand at the foot and ankle as compared to the knee.

  2. Wii-based movement therapy to promote improved upper extremity function post-stroke: a pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mouawad, Marie R; Doust, Catherine G; Max, Madeleine D; McNulty, Penelope A

    2011-05-01

    Virtual-reality is increasingly used to improve rehabilitation outcomes. The Nintendo Wii offers an in-expensive alternative to more complex systems. To investigate the efficacy of Wii-based therapy for post-stroke rehabilitation. Seven patients (5 men, 2 women, aged 42-83 years; 1-38 months post-stroke, mean 15.3 months) and 5 healthy controls (3 men, 2 women, aged 41-71 years) undertook 1 h of therapy on 10 consecutive weekdays. Patients progressively increased home practice to 3 h per day. Functional ability improved for every patient. The mean performance time significantly decreased per Wolf Motor Function Test task, from 3.2 to 2.8 s, and Fugl-Meyer Assessment scores increased from 42.3 to 47.3. Upper extremity range-of-motion increased by 20.1º and 14.33º for passive and active movements, respectively. Mean Motor Activity Log (Quality of Movement scale) scores increased from 63.2 to 87.5, reflecting a transfer of functional recovery to everyday activities. Balance and dexterity did not improve significantly. No significant change was seen in any of these measures for healthy controls, despite improved skill levels for Wii games. An intensive 2-week protocol resulted in significant and clinically relevant improvements in functional motor ability post-stroke. These gains translated to improvement in activities of daily living.

  3. Lower Extremity Movement Differences Persist After Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction and When Returning to Sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, Robert J; Dai, Boyi; Huffman, Nikki; Garrett, William E; Queen, Robin M

    2016-09-01

    To examine how landing mechanics change in patients after anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction (ACL-R) between 6 months and 12 months after surgery. Case-series. Laboratory. Fifteen adolescent patients after ACL-R participated. Lower extremity three-dimensional motion analysis was conducted during a bilateral stop jump task in patients at 6 and 12 months after ACL-R. Joint kinematic and kinetic data, in addition to ground reaction forces, were collected at each time point. During the stop jump landing, the peak joint moments and the initial and peak joint motion at the ankle, knee, and hip were examined. The peak vertical ground reaction force was also examined. Interactions were observed for both the peak knee (P = 0.03) and hip extension moment (P = 0.07). However, only the hip extension moment was symmetrical level at 12 months. Statistically significant (P < 0.05) side-to-side differences existed for the ankle angle at initial contact, peak plantarflexion moment, peak hip flexion angle, and peak impact vertical ground reaction force independent of time. The findings of this study suggest that sagittal plane moments at the knee and hip demonstrate an increase in symmetry between 6 months and 1 year after ACL-R surgery, however, symmetry of the knee extension moment is not established by 12 months after surgery. The lack of change in the variables across time was unexpected. As a result, it is inappropriate to expect a change in landing mechanics solely as a result of time alone after discharge from rehabilitation.

  4. Market structure, excess capacity and price movement: implications for the world oil market in the 1990s

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iwayemi, A.

    1992-01-01

    World Oil Market developments, since the second half of the 1980s, have demonstrated again the conventional wisdom in economics that competitive production and pricing strategies have among producers, when the industry is characterized by significant excess capacity, in exerting strong downward pressure on the price. The magnitude and speed of the price falls depends not only on the size and utilization of the available excess capacity, but also on the perception of the markets as regards the degree of the imbalance between demand and supply. The impact of output competition on oil revenues in the short run depends on the magnitude of the price elasticity of demand. The most vivid illustration of this phenomenon is captured by the experience of 1986, when competition for market share among oil producers, despite the existence of about 20 per cent excess capacity, culminated in a sharp drop in price, with only a marginal improvement in demand. (author)

  5. World market of crude oil - review of possible scenarios of forecasting for the crude oil price movement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Janevski, Risto

    2003-01-01

    Throughout most of 2002, crude oil prices were solidly within the range preferred by producers in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), $22 to $28 per barrel for the OPEC 'basket price' (Fig. 1). OPEC producers have been demonstrating disciplined adherence to announced cutbacks in production. Early in 2003, a dramatic upward turn in crude oil prices was brought about by a combination of two factors. First, a general strike against the Chavez regime resulted in a sudden drop in Venezuela's oil exports. Although other OPEC producers agreed to increase production to make up for the lost Venezuelan output, the obvious strain on worldwide spare capacity kept prices high. Second, price volatility was exacerbated by fears of war in Iraq. (Original)

  6. The estimation of risk-premium implicit in oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luis, J.B.

    2001-01-01

    The futures price can be seen as the sum of the expected value of the underlying asset price and a risk-premium. In order to disentangle these two components of the futures price, one can try to model the relationship between spot and futures prices, in order to obtain a closed expression for the risk-premium, or to use information from spot and option prices to estimate risk-aversion functions. Given the high volatility of the ratios between futures and spot prices, we opted for the latter, estimating risk-neutral and subjective probability density functions, respectively, from observed option and spot prices. looking at the prices of Brent and West Texas Intermediate light/sweet crude oil options, the obtained evidence suggests that risk-aversion is typically very low for levels near the futures prices. However, due to price volatility and, consequently, to the tails of distribution, the risk-aversion functions are badly behaved in extreme prices and futures prices do not anticipate sharp movements in oil spot prices. Therefore, futures oil prices seem to be useful in forecasting spot prices only when moderate price changes occur. (author)

  7. Analyzing Accounting Ratios as Determinants of the LQ45 Stock Prices Movements in Indonesia Stock Exchange During the Period of 2002-2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agus Arianto Toly

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The lack of studies regarding the determinants of stock price movement in the Indonesia Stock Exchange (ISX, which is an emerging stock exchange in the South East Asia region, and the pursue of generalization became the reasons of why this study. Previous research (Gupta, Chevalier, & Sayekt, 2000; Subiyantoro & Andreani, 2003, mostly focus on the external factors of the firms, instead of the internal factors. This study uses the accounting ratios as the determinants of the prices of stocks’ classified as the LQ45 in the ISX during 2002-2006. The panel-data regression model is used to test whether all of the independent variables involved in the equation could simultaneously explain the behavior of the dependent one. The developed model would be analyzed by the utilization of econometrics package, namely GRETL 1.7.4. After conducting some statistical treatments on the developed model, this study reveals that the shareholders’ ratios consisted of book value per share, dividend payout ratio, EPS, and ROA are the accounting ratios, which determine the LQ45’s stock price movement in the ISX during the period of 2002-2006.

  8. The effect of lateral banking on the kinematics and kinetics of the lower extremity during lateral cutting movements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wannop, John W; Graf, Eveline S; Stefanyshyn, Darren J

    2014-02-01

    There are many aspects of cutting movements that can limit performance, however, the implementation of lateral banking may reduce some of these limitations. Banking could provide a protective mechanism, placing the foot and ankle in orientations that keep them out of dangerous positions. This study sought to determine the effect of two banking angles on the kinematics and kinetics of the lower extremity during two athletic maneuvers. Kinematic and kinetic data were collected on 10 recreational athletes performing v-cuts and side shuffle movements on different banked surfaces (0°, 10°, 20°). Each sample surface was rigidly attached to the force platform. Joint moments were calculated and compared between conditions using a repeated measures ANOVA. Banking had a pronounced effect on the ankle joint. As banking increased, the amount of joint loading in the transverse and frontal planes decreased likely leading to a reduction in injury risk. Also an increase in knee joint loading in the frontal plane was seen during the 20° bank during the v-cut. Conversely loading in the sagittal plane at the ankle joint increased with banking and coupled with a reorientation of the ground reaction vector may facilitate a performance increase. The current study indicates that the 10° bank may be the optimal bank, in that it decreases ankle joint loading, as well as increases specific performance variables while not increasing frontal plane knee joint loading. If banking could be incorporated in footwear it may be able to provide a protective mechanism for athletes. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Mandelbrot's Extremism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beirlant, J.; Schoutens, W.; Segers, J.J.J.

    2004-01-01

    In the sixties Mandelbrot already showed that extreme price swings are more likely than some of us think or incorporate in our models.A modern toolbox for analyzing such rare events can be found in the field of extreme value theory.At the core of extreme value theory lies the modelling of maxima

  10. Analysis of Right Issue Announcement Effect toward Stock Price Movement and Stock Trading Volume within Issuer in Indonesia Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wilson Yaputra Yakup

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study were to identify and analyze the rights issue effect to the stock price, the effect of the rights issue on stock trading volume, the correlation between stock prices before and after the right issue, as well as the correlation between volume of trading activity before the right issue and after that event. The objects of the study are the companies listed on Indonesia Stock Exchange (JSX. The hypothesis stated that right issues have a significant effect on stock price on companies listed on the JSX, rights issues have a significant effect on the stock trading volume on companies listed on the JSX, there is a significant correlation between stock price before and after the rights issue on companies listed in JSX, there is a significant correlation between volume of the stock trading before the rights issue and after that event. Data analysis used were descriptive statistics, simple linear regression analysis and paired t-test. Hypothesis testing was performed by using the Pearson correlation test with significance level of 5%. The results show that the right issue has a positive effect but not significant toward stock prices of companies listed in JSX, right issue has a negative effect and not significant toward the trading volume activity (TVA on companies listed in JSX.

  11. Price movement in the Brazilian land market (1994-2010: an analysis in the light of post-Keynesian theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    TIAGO SANTOS TELLES

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT The present study aims to evaluate crop, pasture and forest land prices in Brazil, between 1994 and 2010, in the light of Post-Keynesian theory. The results provide evidence that land, more than just a simple factor of production, must be conceived of as an economic asset. In fact, the price of rural land is determined not only by the expected profitability deriving from agricultural activities but also by the agents' expectations about its future appreciation and liquidity in an economic environment permeated with uncertainty. In this context, as an object of speculation, land has been particularly important as a store of value.

  12. Do Annual Stock Price Effects of Extreme Cash Dividend Pay-Out Events Differ from Their Short Term Effects?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    von Eije, Johan; Muckley, Cal

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we assess the long-term stock price impact of 1327 cash dividend payment initiations and 1156 cash dividend payment omissions of firms listed on the NYSE and the NASDAQ, from 1972 to 2012. In particular we compare the annual returns of dividend initiating and omitting firms and firms

  13. Drugs Cheaper Than Threepenny: The Market of Extremely Low-Priced Drugs within the National Health Insurance in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, Li-Fang

    2014-01-01

    While most drug policy researches paid attention to the financial impact of expensive drugs, the market situation of low-priced drugs in a country was seldom analyzed. We used the nationally representative claims datasets to explore the status within the National Health Insurance (NHI) in Taiwan. In 2007, a total of 12,443 distinct drug items had been prescribed 853,250,147 times with total expenditure of 105,216,950,198 new Taiwan dollars (NTD). Among them, 7,366 oral drug items accounted for 701,353,383 prescribed items and 68,133,988,960 NTD. Besides, 2,887 items (39.2% of oral drug items) belonged to cheap drugs with the unit price ≤1 NTD (about 0.03 of US dollar). While the top one item among all oral drugs had already a market share of 5.0%, 30 items 30.3% and 107 items 50.0%, the cheap drugs with aggregate 332,893,462 prescribed items (47.5% of all prescribed oral drug items) only accounted for 2,750,725,433 NTD (4.0% of expenditure for oral drugs and 2.6% of total drug expenditure). The drug market of Taiwan's NHI was abundant in cheap drugs. The unreasonably low prices of drugs might not guarantee the quality of pharmaceutical care and the sustainability of a healthy pharmaceutical industry in the long run. PMID:24719568

  14. Can Momentum Factors Be Used to Enhance Accounting Information based Fundamental Analysis in Explaining Stock Price Movements?

    OpenAIRE

    KiHoon Jimmy Hong; Eliza Wu

    2014-01-01

    This paper provides new empirical evidence that price-based momentum indicator variables can enhance the ability of accounting variables in explaining cross-sectional stock returns. We apply both OLS and state-space modelling to a sample of firms included in the Russell 3000 index over the period from 1999-2012 to compare the roles of the two main types of information typically used by equity investors. Empirical results reveal the importance of accounting variables over longer term horizons ...

  15. Time-frequency featured co-movement between the stock and prices of crude oil and gold

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Shupei; An, Haizhong; Gao, Xiangyun; Huang, Xuan

    2016-02-01

    The nonlinear relationships among variables caused by the hidden frequency information complicate the time series analysis. To shed more light on this nonlinear issue, we examine their relationships in joint time-frequency domain with multivariate framework, and the analyses in the time domain and frequency domain serve as comparisons. The daily Brent oil prices, London gold fixing price and Shanghai Composite index from January 1991 to September 2014 are adopted as example. First, they have long-term cointegration relationship in time domain from holistic perspective. Second, the Granger causality tests in different frequency bands are heterogeneous. Finally, the comparison between results from wavelet coherence and multiple wavelet coherence in the joint time-frequency domain indicates that in the high (1-14 days) and medium frequency (14-128 days) bands, the combination of Brent and gold prices has stronger correlation with the stock. In the low frequency band (256-512 days), year 2003 is the structure broken point before which Brent and oil are ideal choice for hedging the risk of the stock market. Thus, this paper offers more details between the Chinese stock market and the commodities markets of crude oil and gold, which suggests that the decisions for different time and frequencies should consider the corresponding benchmark information.

  16. Mo(ve)ment methodology – Researching conflictual meanings, double-binds and change in extreme life situations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mørck, Line Lerche

    2015-01-01

    and change in conduct of life. This moment-movement methodology is developed in close collaboration with a former biker-gang member - involved as a research apprentice. Together we are developing the methodology, while researching concrete processes of change from biker gang member towards becoming......The social practice theoretical moment-movement methodology explores significant moments in depth, such as moments of frustration, anger, engagement and (be)longing. The moments are conceptualized as part of broader conflictual struggles and processes (movements), which include both continuity...... are reflected when methodological aspects from Collective Biography Work is integrated with a social phenomenological concept of double bind situations (R.D. Laing) into a social practice theoretical moment-movement ethnography....

  17. PRICE AND PRICING STRATEGIES

    OpenAIRE

    SUCIU Titus

    2013-01-01

    In individual companies, price is one significant factor in achieving marketing success. In many purchase situations, price can be of great importance to customers. Marketers must establish pricing strategies that are compatible with the rest of the marketing mix. Management should decide whether to charge the same price to all similar buyers of identical quantities of a product (a one-price strategy) or to set different prices (a flexible price strategy). Many organizations, especially retai...

  18. Prices and Price Setting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.P. Faber (Riemer)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThis thesis studies price data and tries to unravel the underlying economic processes of why firms have chosen these prices. It focuses on three aspects of price setting. First, it studies whether the existence of a suggested price has a coordinating effect on the prices of firms.

  19. Soil water movement during extreme precipitation in the Šumava Mts. and the Krkonoše Mts. in August 2002

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Tesař, Miroslav; Šír, Miloslav; Krejča, M.; Fišák, Jaroslav; Polívka, Jiří

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 41, - (2010), s. 67-73 ISSN 0071-6715 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR 1QS200420562; GA ČR GA205/06/0375; GA ČR GA205/08/1174; GA ČR GA526/08/1016; GA MŽP(CZ) SP/1A6/151/07 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20600510; CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : mountain hydrology * extreme rain * soil water movement Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology

  20. Effectiveness of commercial gaming-based virtual reality movement therapy on functional recovery of upper extremity in subacute stroke patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Jun Hwan; Han, Eun Young; Kim, Bo Ryun; Kim, Sun Mi; Im, Sang Hee; Lee, So Young; Hyun, Chul Woong

    2014-08-01

    To investigate the effectiveness of commercial gaming-based virtual reality (VR) therapy on the recovery of paretic upper extremity in subacute stroke patients. Twenty patients with the first-onset subacute stroke were enrolled and randomly assigned to the case group (n=10) and the control group (n=10). Primary outcome was measured by the upper limb score through the Fugl-Meyer Assessment (FMA-UL) for the motor function of both upper extremities. Secondary outcomes were assessed for motor function of both upper extremities including manual function test (MFT), box and block test (BBT), grip strength, evaluated for activities of daily living (Korean version of Modified Barthel Index [K-MBI]), and cognitive functions (Korean version of the Mini-Mental State Examination [K-MMSE] and continuous performance test [CPT]). The case group received commercial gaming-based VR therapy using Wii (Nintendo, Tokyo, Japan), and the control group received conventional occupational therapy (OT) for 30 minutes a day during the period of 4 weeks. All patients were evaluated before and after the 4-week intervention. There were no significant differences in the baseline between the two groups. After 4 weeks, both groups showed significant improvement in the FMA-UL, MFT, BBT, K-MBI, K-MMSE, and correct detection of auditory CPT. However, grip strength was improved significantly only in the case group. There were no significant intergroup differences before and after the treatment. These findings suggested that the commercial gaming-based VR therapy was as effective as conventional OT on the recovery of upper extremity motor and daily living function in subacute stroke patients.

  1. Oil prices and stocks in the second quarter of 2004

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    Notwithstanding forecasting difficulties, the oil supply and demand balance has proved to be a good indicator of the state of the market and stock levels, which, in turn, influence price behaviour. In periods where OECD commercial stock levels lie within a certain range, currently around 2,450-2,650 million barrels, the range of prices is larger than when stock levels are very high or very low. In both the latter extreme situations, prices are prone to rapid movements, undermining market stability. Other factors, of course, also influence price fluctuations. The general opinion among regularly published oil market reports points to the inevitability of a higher-than-normal build in stocks in the second quarter of 2004. If the resulting surplus is not handled in a timely and effective manner, there is likely to be excessive downward pressure on prices, which, if left unattended, would lead to a protracted spell of volatility. (Author)

  2. Oil prices and the stock prices of alternative energy companies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henriques, Irene; Sadorsky, Perry

    2008-01-01

    Energy security issues coupled with increased concern over the natural environment are driving factors behind oil price movements. While it is widely accepted that rising oil prices are good for the financial performance of alternative energy companies, there has been relatively little statistical work done to measure just how sensitive the financial performance of alternative energy companies are to changes in oil prices. In this paper, a four variable vector autoregression model is developed and estimated in order to investigate the empirical relationship between alternative energy stock prices, technology stock prices, oil prices, and interest rates. Our results show technology stock prices and oil prices each individually Granger cause the stock prices of alternative energy companies. Simulation results show that a shock to technology stock prices has a larger impact on alternative energy stock prices than does a shock to oil prices. These results should be of use to investors, managers and policy makers. (author)

  3. The Baby Moves prospective cohort study protocol: using a smartphone application with the General Movements Assessment to predict neurodevelopmental outcomes at age 2 years for extremely preterm or extremely low birthweight infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spittle, A J; Olsen, J; Kwong, A; Doyle, L W; Marschik, P B; Einspieler, C; Cheong, Jly

    2016-10-03

    Infants born extremely preterm (EP; smartphone application (app) developed for caregivers to video and upload their infant's general movements to be scored remotely by a certified GMA assessor. The aim of this study is to determine the predictive ability of using the GMA via the Baby Moves app for neurodevelopmental impairment in infants born EP/ELBW. This prospective cohort study will recruit infants born EP/ELBW across the state of Victoria, Australia in 2016 and 2017. A control group of normal birth weight (>2500 g birth weight), term-born (≥37 weeks' gestation) infants will also be recruited as a local reference group. Parents will video their infant's general movements at two time points between 3 and 4 months' corrected age using the Baby Moves app. Videos will be scored by certified GMA assessors and classified as normal or abnormal. Parental satisfaction using the Baby Moves app will be assessed via survey. Neurodevelopmental outcome at 2 years' corrected age includes developmental delay according to the Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development-III and cerebral palsy diagnosis. This study was approved by the Human Research and Ethics Committees at the Royal Children's Hospital, The Royal Women's Hospital, Monash Health and Mercy Health in Melbourne, Australia. Study findings will be disseminated via peer-reviewed publications and conference presentations. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  4. Price performance following stock's IPO in different price limit systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Ting; Wang, Yue; Li, Ming-Xia

    2018-01-01

    An IPO burst occurred in China's stock markets in 2015, while price limit trading rules usually help to reduce the short-term trading mania on individual stocks. It is interesting to make clear the function of the price limits after IPOs. We firstly make a statistical analysis based on all the IPO stocks listed from 1990 to 2015. A high dependency exists between the activities in stock's IPO and various market environment. We also focus on the price dynamics in the first 40 trading days after the stock listed. We find that price limit system will delay the price movement, especially for the up-trend movements, which may lead to longer continuous price limit hits. Similar to our previous work, many results such as ;W; shape can be also observed in the future daily return after the price limit open. At last, we find most IPO measures show evident correlations with the following price limit hits. IPO stocks with lower first-day turnover and earning per share will be followed with a longer continuous price limit hits and lower future daily return under the newest trading rules, which give us a good way to estimate the occurrence of price limit hits and the following price dynamics. Our analysis provides a better understanding of the price dynamics after IPO events and offers potential practical values for investors.

  5. The impacts of global oil price shocks on China's fundamental industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Xiao; Zhang, Chuanguo

    2014-01-01

    This paper investigated the impacts of oil price shocks on China's fundamental industries. In order to analyze the reactions of different industries to oil price shocks, we focused on four fundamental industries: grains, metals, petrochemicals and oil fats. We separated the oil price shocks into two parts, positive and negative parts, to investigate how commodity markets react when oil prices go up and down. We further studied the extreme price movements, called jumps, existing in the oil markets and how jump behavior has affected China's commodity markets. Our results suggest that asymmetric effects of oil price shocks did exist in the four markets and the negative oil price shocks had stronger influences on the four markets in China. The petrochemicals market suffered most from the oil price shocks, and the grains market was least sensitive to the shocks. When jumps occurred in the crude oil market, the four commodity markets would be affected differently. The oil fats market and petrochemicals market tended to “overreact” to jumps. - Highlights: • We investigate the impacts of oil price shocks on China's fundamental industries. • Jump behavior does exist in the crude oil market. • The impacts of oil price shocks are asymmetric. • China's four commodity markets are affected by the jump behavior

  6. Exploring the impact of visual and movement based priming on a motor intervention in the acute phase post-stroke in persons with severe hemiparesis of the upper extremity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Jigna; Qiu, Qinyin; Yarossi, Mathew; Merians, Alma; Massood, Supriya; Tunik, Eugene; Adamovich, Sergei; Fluet, Gerard

    2016-01-01

    Purpose Explore the potential benefits of using priming methods prior to an active hand task in the acute phase post-stroke in persons with severe upper extremity hemiparesis. Methods Five individuals were trained using priming techniques including virtual reality (VR) based visual mirror feedback and contralaterally controlled passive movement strategies prior to training with an active pinch force modulation task. Clinical, kinetic, and neurophysiological measurements were taken pre and post the training period. Clinical measures were taken at six months post training. Results The two priming simulations and active training were well tolerated early after stroke. Priming effects were suggested by increased maximal pinch force immediately after visual and movement based priming. Despite having no clinically observable movement distally, the subjects were able to volitionally coordinate isometric force and muscle activity (EMG) in a pinch tracing task. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of force during the pinch trace task gradually decreased over the training period suggesting learning may have occurred. Changes in motor cortical neurophysiology were seen in the unaffected hemisphere using Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation (TMS) mapping. Significant improvements in motor recovery as measured by the Action Research Arm Test (ARAT) and the Upper Extremity Fugl Meyer Assessment (UEFMA) were demonstrated at six months post training by three of the five subjects. Conclusion This study suggests that an early hand-based intervention using visual and movement based priming activities and a scaled motor task allows participation by persons without the motor control required for traditionally presented rehabilitation and testing. PMID:27636200

  7. Spikes and memory in (Nord Pool) electricity price spot prices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Proietti, Tomasso; Haldrup, Niels; Knapik, Oskar

    Electricity spot prices are subject to transitory sharp movements commonly referred to as spikes. The paper aims at assessing their effects on model based inferences and predictions, with reference to the Nord Pool power exchange. We identify a spike as a price value which deviates substantially...

  8. Price fairness

    OpenAIRE

    Diller, Hermann

    2013-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this article is to integrate the various strands of fair price research into a concise conceptual model. Design/methodology/approach – The proposed price fairness model is based on a review of the fair pricing literature, incorporating research reported in not only English but also German. Findings – The proposed fair price model depicts seven components of a fair price: distributive fairness, consistent behaviour, personal respect and regard for the partner, fair dea...

  9. Forecasting Financial Extremes: A Network Degree Measure of Super-Exponential Growth.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wanfeng Yan

    Full Text Available Investors in stock market are usually greedy during bull markets and scared during bear markets. The greed or fear spreads across investors quickly. This is known as the herding effect, and often leads to a fast movement of stock prices. During such market regimes, stock prices change at a super-exponential rate and are normally followed by a trend reversal that corrects the previous overreaction. In this paper, we construct an indicator to measure the magnitude of the super-exponential growth of stock prices, by measuring the degree of the price network, generated from the price time series. Twelve major international stock indices have been investigated. Error diagram tests show that this new indicator has strong predictive power for financial extremes, both peaks and troughs. By varying the parameters used to construct the error diagram, we show the predictive power is very robust. The new indicator has a better performance than the LPPL pattern recognition indicator.

  10. Forecasting Financial Extremes: A Network Degree Measure of Super-Exponential Growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Wanfeng; van Tuyll van Serooskerken, Edgar

    2015-01-01

    Investors in stock market are usually greedy during bull markets and scared during bear markets. The greed or fear spreads across investors quickly. This is known as the herding effect, and often leads to a fast movement of stock prices. During such market regimes, stock prices change at a super-exponential rate and are normally followed by a trend reversal that corrects the previous overreaction. In this paper, we construct an indicator to measure the magnitude of the super-exponential growth of stock prices, by measuring the degree of the price network, generated from the price time series. Twelve major international stock indices have been investigated. Error diagram tests show that this new indicator has strong predictive power for financial extremes, both peaks and troughs. By varying the parameters used to construct the error diagram, we show the predictive power is very robust. The new indicator has a better performance than the LPPL pattern recognition indicator.

  11. Business cycles and natural gas prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Apostolos, S.; Asghar, S.

    2005-01-01

    This paper investigates the basic stylised facts of natural gas price movements using data for the period that natural gas has been traded on an organised exchange and the methodology suggested by Kydland and Prescott (1990). Our results indicate that natural gas prices are procyclical and lag the cycle of industrial production. Moreover, natural gas prices are positively contemporaneously correlated with United States consumer prices and lead the cycle of consumer prices, raising the possibility that natural gas prices might be a useful guide for US monetary policy, like crude oil prices are, possibly serving as an important indicator variable. (author)

  12. Dynamic Pricing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sharifi, Reza; Anvari-Moghaddam, Amjad; Fathi, S. Hamid

    2017-01-01

    Dynamic pricing scheme, also known as real-time pricing (RTP), can be more efficient and technically beneficial than the other price-based schemes (such as flat-rate or time-of-use (TOU) pricing) for enabling demand response (DR) actions. Over the past few years, advantages of RTP-based schemes h...... of dynamic pricing can lead to increased willingness of consumers to participate in DR programs which in turn improve the operation of liberalized electricity markets.......Dynamic pricing scheme, also known as real-time pricing (RTP), can be more efficient and technically beneficial than the other price-based schemes (such as flat-rate or time-of-use (TOU) pricing) for enabling demand response (DR) actions. Over the past few years, advantages of RTP-based schemes...

  13. Price setting in turbulent times

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ólafsson, Tjörvi; Pétursdóttir, Ásgerdur; Vignisdóttir, Karen Á.

    This price setting survey among Icelandic firms aims to make two contributions to the literature. First, it studies price setting in an advanced economy within a more turbulent macroeconomic environment than has previously been done. The results indicate that price adjustments are to a larger...... extent driven by exchange rate fluctuations than in most other advanced countries. The median Icelandic firm reviews its prices every four months and changes them every six months. The main sources of price rigidity and the most commonly used price setting methods are the same as in most other countries....... A second contribution to the literature is our analysis of the nexus between price setting and exchange rate movements, a topic that has attracted surprisingly limited attention in this survey-based literature. A novel aspect of our approach is to base our analysis on a categorisation of firms...

  14. After the oil price collapse

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kohl, W.L.

    1991-01-01

    In this book, the authors focus on issues that include the extremely high prices following the second oil shock, the resulting decline in oil demand and the increase in non-OPEC production, reduced industry concentration, OPEC's subsequent attempt to regain market share; and the resulting free-for-all of competitive pricing

  15. Exploring the impact of visual and movement based priming on a motor intervention in the acute phase post-stroke in persons with severe hemiparesis of the upper extremity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Jigna; Qiu, Qinyin; Yarossi, Mathew; Merians, Alma; Massood, Supriya; Tunik, Eugene; Adamovich, Sergei; Fluet, Gerard

    2017-07-01

    Explore the potential benefits of using priming methods prior to an active hand task in the acute phase post-stroke in persons with severe upper extremity hemiparesis. Five individuals were trained using priming techniques including virtual reality (VR) based visual mirror feedback and contralaterally controlled passive movement strategies prior to training with an active pinch force modulation task. Clinical, kinetic, and neurophysiological measurements were taken pre and post the training period. Clinical measures were taken at six months post training. The two priming simulations and active training were well tolerated early after stroke. Priming effects were suggested by increased maximal pinch force immediately after visual and movement based priming. Despite having no clinically observable movement distally, the subjects were able to volitionally coordinate isometric force and muscle activity (EMG) in a pinch tracing task. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of force during the pinch trace task gradually decreased over the training period suggesting learning may have occurred. Changes in motor cortical neurophysiology were seen in the unaffected hemisphere using Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation (TMS) mapping. Significant improvements in motor recovery as measured by the Action Research Arm Test (ARAT) and the Upper Extremity Fugl Meyer Assessment (UEFMA) were demonstrated at six months post training by three of the five subjects. This study suggests that an early hand-based intervention using visual and movement based priming activities and a scaled motor task allows participation by persons without the motor control required for traditionally presented rehabilitation and testing. Implications for Rehabilitation Rehabilitation of individuals with severely paretic upper extremities after stroke is challenging due to limited movement capacity and few options for therapeutic training. Long-term functional recovery of the arm after stroke depends on early return

  16. Transfer Pricing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Søren Bo

    2014-01-01

    Against a background of rather mixed evidence about transfer pricing practices in multinational enterprises (MNEs) and varying attitudes on the part of tax authorities, this paper explores how multiple aims in transfer pricing can be pursued across four different transfer pricing regimes. A MNE h...

  17. Gold prices

    OpenAIRE

    Joseph G. Haubrich

    1998-01-01

    The price of gold commands attention because it serves as an indicator of general price stability or inflation. But gold is also a commodity, used in jewelry and by industry, so demand and supply affect its pricing and need to be considered when gold is a factor in monetary policy decisions.

  18. Investor herds and oil prices evidence in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC equity markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Talat Ulussever

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper scrutinizes the effect of crude oil prices on herd behavior among investors in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC stock markets. Using firm level data from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain, Dubai and Abu Dhabi stock exchanges, we examine equity return dispersions within industry portfolios and test whether investor herds exist in these markets. We then assess whether crude oil price movements have any effect on the investment behavior of traders in the aforementioned markets. Our findings reveal significant evidence supporting herd behavior in all GCC equity markets with the exception of Oman and Qatar, more consistently during periods of market losses. Furthermore, we find significant oil price effects on herd behavior in these markets, particularly during periods of extreme positive changes in the price of oil. Our findings suggest that investors’ tendency to act as a herd in the said markets is significantly affected by the developments in the oil market.

  19. Higher prices at Canadian gas pumps: international crude oil prices or local market concentration? An empirical investigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anindya Sen

    2003-01-01

    There is little consensus on whether higher retail gasoline prices in Canada are the result of international crude oil price fluctuations or local market power exercised by large vertically-integrated firms. I find that although both increasing local market concentration and higher average monthly wholesale prices are positively and significantly associated with higher retail prices, wholesale prices are more important than local market concentration. Similarly, crude oil prices are more important than the number of local wholesalers in determining wholesale prices. These results suggest that movements in gasoline prices are largely the result of input price fluctuations rather than local market structure. (author)

  20. Transfer Pricing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rohde, Carsten; Rossing, Christian Plesner

    trade internally as the units have to decide what prices should be paid for such inter-unit transfers. One important challenge is to uncover the consequences that different transfer prices have on the willingness in the organizational units to coordinate activities and trade internally. At the same time...... the determination of transfer price will affect the size of the profit or loss in the organizational units and thus have an impact on the evaluation of managers‟ performance. In some instances the determination of transfer prices may lead to a disagreement between coordination of the organizational units...

  1. An investment cycle in world oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adelman, M.A.

    1992-01-01

    The price of Persian Gulf petroleum emerged after World War II as the world price. Adjusted to 1990 price levels, it went from $22 in 1947 to a low of $3 in 1970, then a high of $56 in 1981, and a low of $15 in the first half of 1990. A cyclical model is often suggested to explain these extreme swings generated by the relation between market price and investment. 9 refs., 2 figs

  2. A study of Canadian retail gasoline prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eckert, A.L.

    1999-05-01

    Retail gasoline pricing in Canadian markets was examined to demonstrate why retail prices tend to follow one of two distinct patterns and that neither pattern is observable in the wholesale price. In many cities, retail prices are more rigid than wholesale prices, while in other markets, retail prices follow a cyclic pattern not seen in wholesale prices. This study examined why constant prices are observed in some cities, while other cities have cyclic prices. Theoretical justification was given to the argument that prices will remain constant only in markets in which there are only few gasoline companies with a small number of stations, but a large per-station capacity. It was shown that when one firm operates significantly more stations than its rival, a constant cost equilibrium cannot be maintained. However, a cycle equilibrium can be constructed in this case, and also when the two companies are similarly sized. An initial examination of available price, cost and market structure data shows that there is a positive correlation between price stability and concentration. The response of retail prices to wholesale price movements in the presence of a retail price cycle was also examined through the use of a simple model based on the predictions of the above theory. Data for the city of Windsor, Ontario was used for the modelling approach. A new cycle is created by an increase in price whenever the distance between the previous retail price and the current wholesale prices is very small. Retail prices are more responsive to wholesale prices over the increasing portion of the cycle. It was shown that when the asymmetric error correction model of Borenstein, Cameron and Gilbert is estimated, it indicates a more rapid response to wholesale price increases than to decreases. 72 refs., 22 tabs., 8 figs

  3. Petroleum price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chevallier, B.

    2009-01-01

    The 'AFTP' conference on 'petroleum prices' organized by Total last March, tries to explain the different aspects of the crisis we undergo for July 2007 and its consequential effects on the petroleum markets (supply, demand evolvements, impacts on reserves, prices, refining...). (O.M.)

  4. Recent trends in gas pricing in economies in transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cornot-Gandolplhe, S.

    1996-01-01

    This paper deals with end-user gas price movements in economies in transition since 1990 and with present problems associated with rising of gas prices levels. The first part stresses the major discrepancies existing between countries in transition with regard to their economic situation and their gas market. Historical gas price movements are shown in the second part, which analyzes the main trends observed in economies in transition and problems encountered when raising the gas prices

  5. Video Game Rehabilitation for Outpatient Stroke (VIGoROUS): protocol for a multi-center comparative effectiveness trial of in-home gamified constraint-induced movement therapy for rehabilitation of chronic upper extremity hemiparesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gauthier, Lynne V; Kane, Chelsea; Borstad, Alexandra; Strahl, Nancy; Uswatte, Gitendra; Taub, Edward; Morris, David; Hall, Alli; Arakelian, Melissa; Mark, Victor

    2017-06-08

    Constraint-Induced Movement therapy (CI therapy) is shown to reduce disability, increase use of the more affected arm/hand, and promote brain plasticity for individuals with upper extremity hemiparesis post-stroke. Randomized controlled trials consistently demonstrate that CI therapy is superior to other rehabilitation paradigms, yet it is available to only a small minority of the estimated 1.2 million chronic stroke survivors with upper extremity disability. The current study aims to establish the comparative effectiveness of a novel, patient-centered approach to rehabilitation utilizing newly developed, inexpensive, and commercially available gaming technology to disseminate CI therapy to underserved individuals. Video game delivery of CI therapy will be compared against traditional clinic-based CI therapy and standard upper extremity rehabilitation. Additionally, individual factors that differentially influence response to one treatment versus another will be examined. This protocol outlines a multi-site, randomized controlled trial with parallel group design. Two hundred twenty four adults with chronic hemiparesis post-stroke will be recruited at four sites. Participants are randomized to one of four study groups: (1) traditional clinic-based CI therapy, (2) therapist-as-consultant video game CI therapy, (3) therapist-as-consultant video game CI therapy with additional therapist contact via telerehabilitation/video consultation, and (4) standard upper extremity rehabilitation. After 6-month follow-up, individuals assigned to the standard upper extremity rehabilitation condition crossover to stand-alone video game CI therapy preceded by a therapist consultation. All interventions are delivered over a period of three weeks. Primary outcome measures include motor improvement as measured by the Wolf Motor Function Test (WMFT), quality of arm use for daily activities as measured by Motor Activity Log (MAL), and quality of life as measured by the Quality of Life in

  6. Gas prices and price process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groenewegen, G.G.

    1992-01-01

    On a conference (Gas for Europe in the 1990's) during the Gasexpo '91 the author held a speech of which the Dutch text is presented here. Attention is paid to the current European pricing methods (prices based on the costs of buying, transporting and distributing the natural gas and prices based on the market value, which is deducted from the prices of alternative fuels), and the transparency of the prices (lack of information on the way the prices are determined). Also attention is paid to the market signal transparency and gas-gas competition, which means a more or less free market of gas distribution. The risks of gas-to-gas competition for a long term price stability, investment policies and security of supply are discussed. Opposition against the Third Party Access (TPA), which is the program to implement gas-to-gas competition, is caused by the fear of natural gas companies for lower gas prices and lower profits. Finally attention is paid to government regulation and the activities of the European Commission (EC) in this matter. 1 fig., 6 ills., 1 tab

  7. The oil price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alba, P.

    2000-01-01

    Statistical analysis cannot, alone, provide an oil price forecast. So, one needs to understand the fundamental phenomena which control the past trends since the end of world war II After a first period during which oil, thanks to its abundance, was able to increase its market share at the expense of other energies, the first oil shock reflects the rarefaction of oil resource with the tilting of the US production curve from growth to decline. Since then, the new situation is that of a ''cohabitation'' between oil and the other energies with the oil price, extremely volatile, reflecting the trial and error adjustment of the market share left to the other energies. Such a context may explain the recent oil price surge but the analogy between the US oil situation at the time of the first shock and that existing today for the world outside Middle East suggest another possibility, that of a structural change with higher future oil prices. The authors examine these two possibilities, think that the oil price will reflect both as long as one or the other will not become proven, and conclude with a series of political recommendations. (authors)

  8. Oil price prospects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toalster, J.

    1992-01-01

    In this paper, four different, popular approaches to the analysis of oil price movements will be considered and an alternative method will be proposed. Whilst we await the development of a rigorous theoretical framework within which to evaluate the phenomenon of oil price movements some progress may be effected by an amalgam of approaches, with the traditional supply and demand model being supplemented by observations regarding political and social developments in particular countries or regions, together with an assessment of emerging and prospective technological achievements. In this way it should be possible to identify the critical influences at work, from which it should also be possible to select either the single most important variable or combination of variables, affecting the oil price. Moreover, it is my belief that the crucial variables influencing the oil price almost certainly, are more likely to be political and social, rather than economic. In this context and notwithstanding the fact that there is only a minimal level of surplus productive capacity in the world oil industry at present (perhaps 1-2 million b/d albeit rising rapidly), it is reasonable to conclude that oil prices will average around $18-19 a barrel for North Sea Brent in 1992 and 1993, with oscillations of $2-4 a barrel either side, rising slightly in 1994 to $19-20 a barrel and to $20-21 a barrel in 1995. Thereafter, the most likely outcome is for a rise in line with inflation (say $ a barrel/annum) with no prospect of an upward spike, because demand will be weaker than most commentators expect up to the year 2000, whilst OPEC oil supplies will be substantially higher than the consensus forecast. (author)

  9. Assessing the effect of oil price on world food prices: Application of principal component analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Esmaeili, Abdoulkarim; Shokoohi, Zainab

    2011-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to investigate the co-movement of food prices and the macroeconomic index, especially the oil price, by principal component analysis to further understand the influence of the macroeconomic index on food prices. We examined the food prices of seven major products: eggs, meat, milk, oilseeds, rice, sugar and wheat. The macroeconomic variables studied were crude oil prices, consumer price indexes, food production indexes and GDP around the world between 1961 and 2005. We use the Scree test and the proportion of variance method for determining the optimal number of common factors. The correlation coefficient between the extracted principal component and the macroeconomic index varies between 0.87 for the world GDP and 0.36 for the consumer price index. We find the food production index has the greatest influence on the macroeconomic index and that the oil price index has an influence on the food production index. Consequently, crude oil prices have an indirect effect on food prices. - Research Highlights: →We investigate the co-movement of food prices and the macroeconomic index. →The crude oil price has indirect effect on the world GDP via its impacts on food production index. →The food production index is the source of causation for CPI and GDP is affected by CPI. →The results confirm an indirect effect among oil price, food price principal component.

  10. Price increase

    CERN Multimedia

    2006-01-01

    Please take note that after five years of stable prices at Restaurant No 1 a price increase will come into force on 1st January 2006. This increase has been agreed after discussions between the CSR (Comité de Surveillance des Restaurants) and the catering company Novae and will reflect the inflation rate of the last few years. In addition, a new children's menu will be introduced, as well as 'Max Havelaar' fair-trade coffee at a price of 1.70 CHF.

  11. Price increase

    CERN Multimedia

    2005-01-01

    Please take note that after five years of stable prices at Restaurant No 1 a price increase will come into force on 1st January 2006. This increase has been agreed after discussions between the CSR (Comité de Surveillance des Restaurants) and the catering company Novae and will reflect the inflation rate of the last few years. In addition, a new children's menu will be introduced as well as 'Max Havelaar' fair-trade coffee at a price of 1.70 CHF.

  12. Freemium Pricing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Runge, Julian; Wagner, Stefan; Claussen, Jörg

    Firms commonly run field experiments to improve their freemium pricing schemes. However, they often lack a framework for analysis that goes beyond directly measurable outcomes and focuses on longer term profit. We aim to fill this gap by structuring existing knowledge on freemium pricing...... into a stylized framework. We apply the proposed framework in the analysis of a field experiment that contrasts three variations of a freemium pricing scheme and comprises about 300,000 users of a software application. Our findings indicate that a reduction of free product features increases conversion as well...... as viral activity, but reduces usage – which is in line with the framework’s predictions. Additional back-of-the-envelope profit estimations suggest that managers were overly optimistic about positive externalities from usage and viral activity in their choice of pricing scheme, leading them to give too...

  13. Petroleum price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maurice, J.

    2001-01-01

    The oil market is the most volatile of all markets, with the exception of the Nasdaq. It is also the biggest commodity market in the world. Therefore one cannot avoid forecasting oil prices, nor can one expect to avoid the forecasting errors that have been made in the past. In his report, Joel Maurice draws a distinction between the short term and the medium-long term in analysing the outlook for oil prices. (author)

  14. Improvement of Upper Extremity Deficit after Constraint-Induced Movement Therapy Combined with and without Preconditioning Stimulation Using Dual-hemisphere Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation and Peripheral Neuromuscular Stimulation in Chronic Stroke Patients: A Pilot Randomized Controlled Trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takashi Takebayashi

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we investigated the effects of dual-hemisphere transcranial direct current stimulation (dual-tDCS of both the affected (anodal tDCS and non-affected (cathodal tDCS primary motor cortex, combined with peripheral neuromuscular electrical stimulation (PNMES, on the effectiveness of constraint-induced movement therapy (CIMT as a neurorehabilitation intervention in chronic stroke. We conducted a randomized controlled trial of feasibility, with a single blind assessor, with patients recruited from three outpatient clinics. Twenty chronic stroke patients were randomly allocated to the control group, receiving conventional CIMT, or the intervention group receiving dual-tDCS combined with PNMES before CIMT. Patients in the treatment group first underwent a 20-min period of dual-tDCS, followed immediately by PNMES, and subsequent CIMT for 2 h. Patients in the control group only received CIMT (with no pretreatment stimulation. All patients underwent two CIMT sessions, one in the morning and one in the afternoon, each lasting 2 h, for a total of 4 h of CIMT per day. Upper extremity function was assessed using the Fugl-Meyer Assessment (primary outcome, as well as the amount of use (AOU and quality of movement (QOM scores, obtained via the Motor Activity Log (secondary outcome. Nineteen patients completed the study, with one patient withdrawing after allocation. Compared to the control group, the treatment improvement in upper extremity function and AOU was significantly greater in the treatment than control group (change in upper extremity score, 9.20 ± 4.64 versus 4.56 ± 2.60, respectively, P < 0.01, η2 = 0.43; change in AOU score, 1.10 ± 0.65 versus 0.62 ± 0.85, respectively, P = 0.02, η2 = 0.52. There was no significant effect of the intervention on the QOM between the intervention and control groups (change in QOM score, 1.00 ± 0.62 versus 0.71 ± 0.72, respectively, P = 0.07, η2

  15. The Impact of Oil Price Volatility on Statoil

    OpenAIRE

    Johannessen, Frida; Skjelvik, Karina

    2017-01-01

    Master's thesis in Finance PROBLEM STATEMENT How do oil price movements impact Statoil ASA? RESEARCH QUESTIONS Do oil price fluctuations have an explainable effect on Statoil’s capital expenditures and operating expenditures? Do oil price fluctuations have an explainable effect on Statoil’s share price? ANALYSIS To analyse the impact of oil price shocks, Ordinary Least Squares regression has been employed for two separate time periods. First, the period from Q4...

  16. Asymmetric Price Transmission in Indonesia's Wheat Flour Market

    OpenAIRE

    Varela, Gonzalo J.; Taniguchi, Kiyoshi

    2014-01-01

    Data indicate that its domestic price in Indonesia has been increasing regardless of movements in the international price of wheat. A test for asymmetric price transmission from international wheat to domestic wheat flour markets is conducted using an error correction model and find the presence of asymmetric price transmission. The upward adjustment in the domestic price of wheat flour is much faster than its adjustment downward when it deviates from long-run equilibrium. Our results are rob...

  17. Bowel Movement

    Science.gov (United States)

    A bowel movement is the last stop in the movement of food through your digestive tract. Your stool passes out of ... what you eat and drink. Sometimes a bowel movement isn't normal. Diarrhea happens when stool passes ...

  18. Marketplace pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1991-01-01

    As discussed in this chapter, interest in marketplace pricing has been increasing in recent years, reflecting the societal trend toward substituting competition for regulation where appropriate. Competition is valuable because it encourages utilities to make efficient decisions with a minimum of regulatory intervention. It enhances efficiency through the incentive for innovation by the regulated companies and by increasing the likelihood they will come forward with proposals for better services, lower prices or both. Ultimately, consumers are beneficiaries. Marketplace pricing is emblematic of the view that the degree of regulation should reflect the degree of market power, that workably competitive markets should be allowed to operate with as little regulatory interference as possible. The Edison Electric Institute has made perhaps the most detailed proposal on marketplace pricing. It and others perceive numerous benefits from this method of pricing transmission services. Given the undeniable market power resulting from line ownership, FERC has emphasized the need to find a workably competitive market before approving such proposals. The ability to make this distinction without a full-blown antitrust review for every transaction is questionable, and FERC has yet to provide generic guidance. Finally, FERC's legal ability to depart from cost-based standards is questionable

  19. Biodiesel as a motor fuel price stabilization mechanism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Serra, Teresa; Gil, José M.

    2012-01-01

    This article studies the capacity of biofuels to reduce motor fuel price fluctuations. For this purpose, we study dependence between crude oil and biodiesel blend prices in Spain. Copula models are used for this purpose. Results suggest that the practice of blending biodiesel with diesel can protect consumers against extreme crude oil price increases. - Highlights: ► We study the capacity of biofuels to reduce fuel price fluctuations. ► We focus on Spanish biodiesel market. ► Biodiesel and crude oil price dependence is studied using copula functions. ► Biodiesel can protect consumers against extreme crude oil price increases.

  20. Dynamics of oil price, precious metal prices, and exchange rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sari, Ramazan; Soytas, Ugur; Hammoudeh, Shawkat

    2010-01-01

    This study examines the co-movements and information transmission among the spot prices of four precious metals (gold, silver, platinum, and palladium), oil price, and the US dollar/euro exchange rate. We find evidence of a weak long-run equilibrium relationship but strong feedbacks in the short run. The spot precious metal markets respond significantly (but temporarily) to a shock in any of the prices of the other metal prices and the exchange rate. Furthermore, we discover some evidence of market overreactions in the palladium and platinum cases as well as in the exchange rate market. In conclusion, whether there are overreactions and re-adjustments or not, investors may diversify at least a portion of the risk away by investing in precious metals, oil, and the euro. Policy implications are provided. (author)

  1. Electricity pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wijayatunga, P.D.C.

    1994-01-01

    Electricity pricing in most countries, especially in the developing world, has been determined by traditional accounting criteria where it raises revenue requirements to cover the operating costs and a return on past and future capital investments in possible power systems. The use of economic principles to improve the total economic efficiency in the electricity industry is discussed. Basic marginal cost theory, long run marginal costing (LRMC) cost categories and rating periods, marginal capacity costs, marginal energy costs, consumer costs, short run marginal costing (SRMC), marginal cost of fuel, marginal cost of network losses, market clearing price, value of unserved energy and network quality of supply cost are discussed

  2. Food versus fuel: What do prices tell us?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Zibin; Lohr, Luanne; Escalante, Cesar; Wetzstein, Michael

    2010-01-01

    Sorting out the impacts of biofuels on global agricultural commodity prices is impossible without turning to data and distinguishing between the short-run versus the long-run impacts. Using time-series prices on fuels and agricultural commodities, the aim is to investigate the long-run cointegration of these prices simultaneously with their multivariate short-run interactions. Results indicate no direct long-run price relations between fuel and agricultural commodity prices, and limited if any direct short-run relationships. In terms of short-run price movements, sugar prices are influencing all the other agricultural commodity prices except rice. With sugar the number one world input for ethanol, results indicate increased ethanol production is potentially influencing short-run agricultural commodity prices. Overall, results support the effect of agricultural commodity prices as market signals which restore commodity markets to their equilibria after a demand or supply event (shock).

  3. Movement - uncoordinated

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Loss of coordination; Coordination impairment; Ataxia; Clumsiness; Uncoordinated movement ... Smooth graceful movement requires a balance between different muscle groups. A part of the brain called the cerebellum manages this balance.

  4. Income Migration and Home Price Trajectories in the United States

    OpenAIRE

    Samuel M. Otterstrom

    2015-01-01

    This paper models one facet of the relationship between housing market price shifts and income migration among U.S. regions: how income migration relates to regional housing price clusters. The tremendous negative slide in national housing prices from 2006 to 2012 had an uneven spatial distribution. These differences are explored within the context of net income and net population migration (movement of money with people). Median housing prices for urban areas from 2005 to 2010 and IRS county...

  5. Slope movements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, P.

    2009-01-01

    On this poster some reasons of slope movements on the territory of the Slovak Republic are presented. Slope movements induced deterioration of land and forests, endangering of towns villages, and communications as well as hydro-engineering structures. Methods of preventing and stabilisation of slope movements are presented.

  6. Understanding gasoline pricing in Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    2001-01-01

    Pricing policies for gasoline by Canadian oil companies are discussed. An attempt is made to demonstrate that competition between oil companies is extremely keen, and markups are so small that to stay in business, retail outlets have to sell huge volumes and sell non-fuel products, as a means to increase revenues and margins. An explanation is provided for why gasoline prices move in unison, and why what appears to the public as collusion and gouging is, in fact, the result of retail dealers attempting to stay in business. The high prices are attributed mainly to taxes by municipalities, the provinces and the federal government; taxes are said to account for 40 to 50 per cent of the pump price. The cost of crude makes up another 35 to 45 per cent, refining adds 10 to 15 per cent, with the remaining 5 to 10 per cent representing retail costs. (Taxes in the United States average 20 to 30 per cent). Over the longer term, gasoline prices consistently reflect the cost of crude oil, dominated by the OPEC countries which supply about 41 per cent of daily world production. Another factor is the rise of global and regional commodity markets for refined products such as gasoline. Commodity traders buy wholesale gasoline cheaply whenever it is in oversupply, and sell it for a profit into markets where the demand is greater. While this is claimed to ensure competitive prices in all markets, the practice can also trigger abrupt changes in regional markets

  7. İşgal Yıllarında İzmir İktisadi Bölgesinde Fiyat Hareketleri Price Movements In İzmir Financial District During The Occupation Years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filiz ÇOLAK

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Izmir has always had an important role because of its involvement both at the beginning and the end of the National Struggle. Greece, which used to be a vassal of the Ottoman State, occupied Izmir on 15 May 1919. Greece was supported by the British Empire and Izmir had a crucial location for their economy and for their Megola Idea ambitions. This occupation did not remain limited to Izmir, but continued further including its hinterland. Consequently, occupation of Izmir accelerated the organization of the national resistance in Anatolia. The most important front wars of military operation in the National Struggle took place in the Western Anatolia, Izmir and its hinterland and repossession of Izmir by the Turkish army on 9 September 1922 marked the end of the war.Before the Armistice, during the First World War years, product and commodity prices considerably increased because of commodity shortages and continuous currency depreciation. This situation continued during the Armistice and occupation years after the Armistice. Increase in prices reduced the public purchasing power and with the inclusion of profiteering and black-marketeering to this chaos environment, Anatolian people had difficulty even in finding bread to eat.In this study, price increases, which were the concrete source of public financial difficulties during the occupation years, and the reasons behind these price increases in Izmir and in its hinterland will be analyzed in the light of period resources and comparisons between the status before and after the occupation years will be made.

  8. Bank Lending and Property Prices in Hong Kong

    OpenAIRE

    Gerlach, Stefan; Peng, Wensheng

    2004-01-01

    This paper studies the relationship between residential property prices and lending in Hong Kong. This is an interesting topic for three reasons. First, swings in property prices have been extremely large and frequent in Hong Kong. Second, under the currency board regime, monetary policy can not be used to guard against asset price swings. Third, despite the collapse in property prices since 1998, the banking sector remains sound. While the contemporaneous correlation between lending and prop...

  9. Energy prices and taxes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    Energy Prices and Taxes contains a major international compilation of energy prices at all market levels: import prices, industry prices and consumer prices. The statistics cover main petroleum products, gas, coal and electricity, giving for imported products an average price both for importing country and country of origin. Every issue includes full notes on sources and methods and a description of price mechanisms in each country

  10. MARKET ECONOMICS PRICING PARTICULARS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. I. Parshin

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The price performs several economic functions: accounting, stimulation, distribution, demand and offer balancing, serving as production site rational choice criterion, information. Most important pricing principles are: price scientific and purpose-aimed substantiation, single pricing and price control process. Pricing process factors are external, internal, basic (independent on money-market, market-determined and controlling. Different pricing methods and models are to be examined, recommendations on practical application of those chosen are to be written.

  11. What is behind the increase in oil prices? Analyzing oil consumption and supply relationship with oil price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gallo, Andres; Mason, Paul; Shapiro, Steve; Fabritius, Michael

    2010-01-01

    The continuing increases in oil prices have renewed the argument over the real culprits behind these movements. The growth in demand for oil in international markets, especially from the United States and China, is often identified as the main source of consumption pressure on prices, and thus the upward trend in oil prices. This paper uses unit root tests with two endogenous breaks to analyze the characteristics of oil prices, production, and consumption for several countries. By taking into account structural breaks, we find that many countries' oil consumption and oil prices are stationary, while other countries' are not. We also perform causality tests to determine the direction of any possible relationship between oil price and oil consumption and production. Our statistical analysis reveals that production variables cause oil prices, while oil prices tend to cause consumption. As a result, we claim that the blame for the recent fluctuations in oil prices is more appropriately associated with supply factors, not consumption influences. (author)

  12. Movement - uncontrolled or slow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dystonia; Involuntary slow and twisting movements; Choreoathetosis; Leg and arm movements - uncontrollable; Arm and leg movements - uncontrollable; Slow involuntary movements of large muscle groups; Athetoid movements

  13. Gas prices: realities and probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broadfoot, M.

    2000-01-01

    An assessment of price trends suggests continuing rise in 2001, with some easing of upward price movement in 2002 and 2003. Storage levels as of Nov. 1, 2000 are expected to be at 2.77 Tcf, but if the winter of 2000/2001 proves to be more severe than usual, inventory levels could sink as low as 500 Bcf by April 1, 2001. With increasing demand for natural gas for non-utility electric power generation the major challenge will be to achieve significant supply growth, which means increased developmental drilling and inventory draw-downs, as well as more exploratory drilling in deepwater and frontier regions. Absence of a significant supply response by next summer will affect both growth in demand and in price levels, and the increased demand for electric generation in the summer will create a flatter consumption profile, erasing the traditional summer/winter spread in consumption, further intensifying price volatility. Managing price fluctuations is the second biggest challenge (after potential supply problems) facing the industry

  14. Exchange rates and individual good's price misalignment: Some preliminary evidence of long-horizon predictability

    OpenAIRE

    Dong, Wei; Nam, Deokwoo

    2011-01-01

    When prices are sticky, movements in the nominal exchange rate have a direct impact on international relative prices. A relative price misalignment would trigger an adjustment in consumption and employment, and may help to predict future movements in the exchange rate. Although purchasing-power-parity fundamentals, in general, have only weak predictability, currency misalignment may be indicated by price differentials for some goods, which could then have predictive power for subsequent re-ev...

  15. Hedging electricity price volatility using nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mari, Carlo

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Nuclear power is an important asset to reduce the volatility of electricity prices. • Unpredictability of fossil fuels and carbon prices makes power prices very volatile. • The dynamics of fossil fuels and carbon prices is described by Brownian motions. • LCOE values, volatilities and correlations are obtained via Monte Carlo simulations. • Optimal portfolios of generating technologies are get using a mean–variance approach. - Abstract: The analysis presented in this paper aims to put in some evidence the role of nuclear power as hedging asset against the volatility of electricity prices. The unpredictability of natural gas and coal market prices as well as the uncertainty in environmental policies may affect power generating costs, thus enhancing volatility in electricity market prices. The nuclear option, allowing to generate electricity without carbon emissions, offers the possibility to reduce the volatility of electricity prices through optimal diversification of power generating technologies. This paper provides a methodological scheme to plan well diversified “portfolios” of generating capacity that minimize the electricity price risk induced by random movements of fossil fuels market prices and by unpredictable fluctuations of carbon credits prices. The analysis is developed within a stochastic environment in which the dynamics of fuel prices as well as the dynamics of carbon credits prices is assumed to evolve in time according to well defined Brownian processes. Starting from market data and using Monte Carlo techniques to simulate generating cost values, the hedging argument is developed by selecting optimal portfolio of power generating technologies using a mean–variance approach

  16. Recent Global Food Price Shocks: Causes, Consequences and Lessons for African Governments and Donors-super- †

    OpenAIRE

    Philip Abbott; Adeline Borot de Battisti

    2011-01-01

    Dramatic increases in international agricultural commodity prices began in 2006 and peaked in July 2008. An equally remarkable and rapid decline of those prices then ensued, accompanied by extreme volatility in those prices. The trend in food prices lagged the rapid increases in other commodity prices, including oil and metals, but accompanied those other prices in the downward part of the cycle. Not all agricultural commodities increased to the same extent—grains and oilseed prices increased...

  17. Fractional-moment Capital Asset Pricing model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Hui; Wu Min; Wang Xiaotian

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we introduce the definition of the 'α-covariance' and present the fractional-moment versions of Capital Asset Pricing Model,which can be used to price assets when asset return distributions are likely to be stable Levy (or Student-t) distribution during panics and stampedes in worldwide security markets in 2008. Furthermore, if asset returns are truly governed by the infinite-variance stable Levy distributions, life is fundamentally riskier than in a purely Gaussian world. Sudden price movements like the worldwide security market crash in 2008 turn into real-world possibilities.

  18. Housing price forecastability: A factor analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Stig Vinther; Bork, Lasse

    2017-01-01

    We examine U.S. housing price forecastability using principal component analysis (PCA), partial least squares (PLS), and sparse PLS (SPLS). We incorporate information from a large panel of 128 economic time series and show that macroeconomic fundamentals have strong predictive power for future...... movements in housing prices. We find that (S)PLS models systematically dominate PCA models. (S)PLS models also generate significant out-of-sample predictive power over and above the predictive power contained by the price-rent ratio, autoregressive benchmarks, and regression models based on small datasets....

  19. Cryptocurrency price drivers: Wavelet coherence analysis revisited.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Ross C; Gorse, Denise

    2018-01-01

    Cryptocurrencies have experienced recent surges in interest and price. It has been discovered that there are time intervals where cryptocurrency prices and certain online and social media factors appear related. In addition it has been noted that cryptocurrencies are prone to experience intervals of bubble-like price growth. The hypothesis investigated here is that relationships between online factors and price are dependent on market regime. In this paper, wavelet coherence is used to study co-movement between a cryptocurrency price and its related factors, for a number of examples. This is used alongside a well-known test for financial asset bubbles to explore whether relationships change dependent on regime. The primary finding of this work is that medium-term positive correlations between online factors and price strengthen significantly during bubble-like regimes of the price series; this explains why these relationships have previously been seen to appear and disappear over time. A secondary finding is that short-term relationships between the chosen factors and price appear to be caused by particular market events (such as hacks / security breaches), and are not consistent from one time interval to another in the effect of the factor upon the price. In addition, for the first time, wavelet coherence is used to explore the relationships between different cryptocurrencies.

  20. Price expectations and petroleum development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pollio, G.; Marian, W.S.

    1991-01-01

    In the first section of this paper, the authors present a highly stylized model of the world oil market that explicitly incorporates both expectative and financial effects. The model generates the extremely interesting result that actual future price outcomes are inversely related to prevailing price expectations, owing to fluctuation in the level and timing of industry investment expenditure. Given the importance of price expectations, it is surprising that the topic has received such scant attention. The authors therefore present in the second section of selective survey of the various measures that have been proposed and used in the literature, as well as an assessment of the value of potentially new indices and market prices for existing hydrocarbon reserves, for example. In the final section of the paper, we discuss the extent to which financial innovation, in the form of commodity-linked products-such as swaps, caps, collars, and so forth-are transforming the oil market, enabling all market segments to manage price uncertainty far more effectively than was ever possible in the past

  1. Forecasting Long-Run Electricity Prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamm, Gregory; Borison, Adam

    2006-01-01

    Estimation of long-run electricity prices is extremely important but it is also very difficult because of the many uncertainties that will determine future prices, and because of the lack of sufficient historical and forwards data. The difficulty is compounded when forecasters ignore part of the available information or unnecessarily limit their thinking about the future. The authors present a practical approach that addresses these problems. (author)

  2. Pricing and Trust

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Huck, Steffen; Ruchala, Gabriele K.; Tyran, Jean-Robert

    -competitive (monopolistic) markets. We then introduce a regulated intermediate price above the oligopoly price and below the monopoly price. The effect in monopolies is more or less in line with standard intuition. As price falls volume increases and so does quality, such that overall efficiency is raised by 50%. However......We experimentally examine the effects of flexible and fixed prices in markets for experience goods in which demand is driven by trust. With flexible prices, we observe low prices and high quality in competitive (oligopolistic) markets, and high prices coupled with low quality in non...

  3. 7 CFR 1000.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing... advanced pricing factors. Class prices per hundredweight of milk containing 3.5 percent butterfat, component prices, and advanced pricing factors shall be as follows. The prices and pricing factors described...

  4. Price dependence in the principal EU olive oil markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Emmanouilides, C.; Fousekis, P.; Grigoriadis, V.

    2014-06-01

    The objective of this paper is to assess the degree and the structure of price dependence in the principal EU olive oil markets (Spain, Italy and Greece). To this end, it utilizes monthly olive oil price data and the statistical tool of copulas. The empirical results suggest that prices are likely to boom together but not to crash together; this is especially true for the prices of the two most important players, Italy (importer) and Spain (exporter). The finding of asymmetric price co-movements implies that the three principal spatial olive oil markets in the EU cannot be thought of as one great pool. (Author)

  5. Inflation impact of food prices: Case of Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Šoškić Dejan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Food prices traditionally have an impact on inflation around the world. Movements in these prices are coming more from the supply side, then from the demand side. If treated as a supply shock, monetary policy should not react. However, food prices are part of headline inflation that is an official target for most central banks. Serbia conducts Inflation targeting and faces serious challenges with food price volatility. Food price volatility in Serbia hampers inflation forecasting, and may have a negative influence on inflationary expectations and public confidence in (i.e. credibility of the Central bank, all of crucial importance for success of Inflation targeting. There are several important possible improvements that may decrease volatility of food prices but also limit negative impact of food price volatility on Consumer Price Index (CPI as a measure of inflation. These improvements are very important for success of Inflation targeting in Serbia.

  6. Competitive Pricing by a Price Leader

    OpenAIRE

    Abhik Roy; Dominique M. Hanssens; Jagmohan S. Raju

    1994-01-01

    We examine the problem of pricing in a market where one brand acts as a price leader. We develop a procedure to estimate a leader's price rule, which is optimal given a sales target objective, and allows for the inclusion of demand forecasts. We illustrate our estimation procedure by calibrating this optimal price rule for both the leader and the follower using data on past sales and prices from the mid-size sedan segment of the U.S. automobile market. Our results suggest that a leader-follow...

  7. ACCOUNTING ASPECTS OF PRICING AND TRANSFER PRICING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    TÜNDE VERES

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The pricing methods in practice need really complex view of the business situation and depend on the strategy and market position of a company. The structure of a price seems simple: cost plus margin. Both categories are special area in the management accounting. Information about the product costs, the allocation methodologies in cost accounting, the analyzing of revenue and different level of the margin needs information from accounting system. This paper analyzes the pricing methods from management accounting aspects to show out the role of the accounting system in the short term and long term pricing and transfer pricing decisions.

  8. Extreme cosmos

    CERN Document Server

    Gaensler, Bryan

    2011-01-01

    The universe is all about extremes. Space has a temperature 270°C below freezing. Stars die in catastrophic supernova explosions a billion times brighter than the Sun. A black hole can generate 10 million trillion volts of electricity. And hypergiants are stars 2 billion kilometres across, larger than the orbit of Jupiter. Extreme Cosmos provides a stunning new view of the way the Universe works, seen through the lens of extremes: the fastest, hottest, heaviest, brightest, oldest, densest and even the loudest. This is an astronomy book that not only offers amazing facts and figures but also re

  9. Oil price shocks, stock market, economic activity and employment in Greece

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Papapetrou, E.

    2001-01-01

    Using a multivariate vector-autoregression (VAR) approach, this paper attempts to shed light into the dynamic relationship among oil prices, real stock prices, interest rates, real economic activity and employment for Greece. The empirical evidence suggests that oil price changes affect real economic activity and employment. Oil prices are important in explaining stock price movements. Stock returns do not lead to changes in real activity and employment

  10. Electricity deregulation, spot price patterns and demand-side management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Y.; Flynn, P.C.

    2006-01-01

    This paper examines extensive hourly or half-hourly power price data from 14 deregulated power markets. It analyzes average diurnal patterns, relationship to system load, volatility, and consistency over time. Diurnal patterns indicate the average price spread between off-peak and on-peak and weekend vs. weekday power consumption. Volatility is measured by price velocity: the average normalized hourly change in power price, calculated daily. The calculated price velocity is broken down into an expected component that arises from the diurnal pattern and an unexpected component that arises from unknown factors. The analysis reveals significant differences among markets, suggesting that demand-side management (DSM) of power consumption is far more difficult in some markets than in others. At one extreme, Spain, Britain and Scandinavia show consistent diurnal price patterns, a stable relationship between price and system load, and a low unexplained component of price volatility. A power consumer in these markets could form a reasonable expectation of a reward for DSM of elective power consumption. At the other extreme, two markets in Australia show erratic diurnal price patterns from year to year, low correlation between price and system load, and a high amount of unexpected price velocity. A power consumer in these markets would have far greater difficulty in realizing a benefit from DSM. Markets that experienced one period of very high prices without a clear external cause, such as California and Alberta, appear to have a significant longer-term erosion of public support for deregulation. (author)

  11. Protest movements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rucht, D.

    1989-01-01

    The author describes the development of protest movements in postwar Germay and outlines two essential overlapping 'flow cycles'. The first of these was characterised by the restaurative postwar years. It culminated and ended in the students' revolt. This revolt is at the same time the start of a second cycle of protest which encompasses all subsequent individual movement and is initated by an economic, political and sociocultural procrastination of modernisation. This cycle culminates in the late 70s and early 80s and clearly lost momentum over the last few years. The follwoing phases and themes are described profoundly: against restauration and armament in the 1950; the revolutionary impatience of the students' movement, politisation of everyday life by the womens' movement and citizens' action groups, antinuclear- and ecological movement, differentiation and stabilisation of the movement in the 70s and 80s; break-up and continuity in the German protest behaviour. The paper contains a detailed chronicle of protest activities since 1945. (orig.) [de

  12. Heterogeneity and option pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Benninga, Simon; Mayshar, Joram

    2000-01-01

    An economy with agents having constant yet heterogeneous degrees of relative risk aversion prices assets as though there were a single decreasing relative risk aversion pricing representative agent. The pricing kernel has fat tails and option prices do not conform to the Black-Scholes formula.

  13. House price fluctuations and the business cycle dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abate, Girum Dagnachew; Anselin, Luc

    This paper investigates the impact of house price movements on output in a space-time dynamic framework. The transmission of house price fluctuations to the macroeconomy both across space and over time is explicitly considered through spatial econometric modeling techniques. Using 373 metropolita...

  14. Regulation of Pharmaceutical Prices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaiser, Ulrich; Mendez, Susan J.; Rønde, Thomas

    On April 1, 2005, Denmark changed the way references prices, a main determinant of reimbursements for pharmaceutical purchases, are calculated. The previous reference prices, which were based on average EU prices, were substituted to minimum domestic prices. Novel to the literature, we estimate...... the joint eects of this reform on prices and quantities. Prices decreased more than 26 percent due to the reform, which reduced patient and government expenditures by 3.0 percent and 5.6 percent, respectively, and producer revenues by 5.0 percent. The prices of expensive products decreased more than...

  15. Monitoring underground movements

    CERN Multimedia

    Antonella Del Rosso

    2015-01-01

    On 16 September 2015 at 22:54:33 (UTC), an 8.3-magnitude earthquake struck off the coast of Chile. 11,650 km away, at CERN, a new-generation instrument – the Precision Laser Inclinometer (PLI) – recorded the extreme event. The PLI is being tested by a JINR/CERN/ATLAS team to measure the movements of underground structures and detectors.   The Precision Laser Inclinometer during assembly. The instrument has proven very accurate when taking measurements of the movements of underground structures at CERN.    The Precision Laser Inclinometer is an extremely sensitive device capable of monitoring ground angular oscillations in a frequency range of 0.001-1 Hz with a precision of 10-10 rad/Hz1/2. The instrument is currently installed in one of the old ISR transfer tunnels (TT1) built in 1970. However, its final destination could be the ATLAS cavern, where it would measure and monitor the fine movements of the underground structures, which can affect the precise posi...

  16. One TV, One Price?

    OpenAIRE

    Jean Imbs; Haroon Mumtaz; Morten O. Ravn; Hélène Rey

    2009-01-01

    We use a unique dataset on television prices across European countries and regions to investigate the sources of differences in price levels. Our findings are as follows: (i) Quality is a crucial determinant of price differences. Even in an integrated economic zone as Europe, rich economies tend to consume higher quality goods. This effect accounts for the lion’s share of international price dispersion. (ii) Sizable international price differentials subsist even for the same television sets. ...

  17. Value-based pricing

    OpenAIRE

    Netseva-Porcheva Tatyana

    2010-01-01

    The main aim of the paper is to present the value-based pricing. Therefore, the comparison between two approaches of pricing is made - cost-based pricing and value-based pricing. The 'Price sensitively meter' is presented. The other topic of the paper is the perceived value - meaning of the perceived value, the components of perceived value, the determination of perceived value and the increasing of perceived value. In addition, the best company strategies in matrix 'value-cost' are outlined. .

  18. ACCOUNTING ASPECTS OF PRICING AND TRANSFER PRICING

    OpenAIRE

    TÜNDE VERES

    2011-01-01

    The pricing methods in practice need really complex view of the business situation and depend on the strategy and market position of a company. The structure of a price seems simple: cost plus margin. Both categories are special area in the management accounting. Information about the product costs, the allocation methodologies in cost accounting, the analyzing of revenue and different level of the margin needs information from accounting system. This paper analyzes the pricing methods from m...

  19. Value and Pricing of MOOCs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rose M. Baker

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Reviewed in this article is the potential for Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs to transform higher education delivery, accessibility, and costs. Next, five major value propositions for MOOCs are considered (headhunting, certification, face-to-face learning, personalized learning, integration with services external to the MOOC, marketing. Then, four pricing strategies for MOOCs are examined (cross-subsidy, third-party, “freemium”, nonmonetary. Although the MOOC movement has experienced growing pains similar to most innovations, we assert that the unyielding pace of improvements in network technologies combined with the need to tame the costs of higher education will create continuing demand for MOOC offerings.

  20. Striking movements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahl, Sofia

    2011-01-01

    Like all music performance, percussion playing requires high control over timing and sound properties. Specific to percussionists, however, is the need to adjust the movement to different instruments with varying physical properties and tactile feedback to the player. Furthermore, the well defined...... note onsets and short interaction times between player and instrument do not allow for much adjustment once a stroke is initiated. The paper surveys research that shows a close relationship between movement and sound production, and how playing conditions such as tempo and the rebound after impact...

  1. Exporter Price Premia?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jäkel, Ina Charlotte; Sørensen, Allan

    This paper provides new evidence on manufacturing firms' output prices: in Denmark, on average, exported varieties are sold at a lower price (i.e. a negative exporter price premium) relative to only domestically sold varieties. This finding stands in sharp contrast to previous studies, which have...... found positive exporter price premia. We also document that the exporter price premium varies substantially across products (both in terms of sign and magnitude). We show that in a standard heterogeneous firms model with heterogeneity in quality as well as production efficiency there is indeed no clear......-cut prediction on the sign of the exporter price premium. However, the model unambiguously predicts a negative exporter price premium in terms of quality-adjusted prices, i.e. prices per unit of quality. This prediction is broadly borne out in the Danish data: while the magnitude of the premium varies across...

  2. Price strategy and pricing strategy: terms and content identification

    OpenAIRE

    Panasenko Tetyana

    2015-01-01

    The article is devoted to the terminology and content identification of seemingly identical concepts "price strategy" and "pricing strategy". The article contains evidence that the price strategy determines the direction, principles and procedure of implementing the company price policy and pricing strategy creates a set of rules and practical methods of price formation in accordance with the pricing strategy of the company.

  3. Derivative markets, speculation and oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Babusiaux, D.; Lasserre, F.; Pierru, A.

    2010-01-01

    Recent movements in oil prices have been ascribed by a number of analysts and political leaders not to market fundamentals but to the speculative positions taken by financial investors in derivatives markets. Various economists including Nobel Prize Paul Krugman believe however that the constitution of stocks is a necessary element for speculation, a feature that was not very evident during the sudden price increase in 2008; but these points of view are not entirely incompatible. Various explanations can be put forward, among which the most important is demand inertia. On the very short run, demand price elasticity is significantly lower than that usually calculated for the short term, which can significantly reduce the impact - on stocks - of a temporary price increase provoked by financial investors' behavior. (authors)

  4. Possible space weather influence on the Earth wheat prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pustil'Nik, L.; Yom Din, G.; Dorman, L.

    We present development of our study of possible influence of space weather modulated by cycle of solar activity on the price bursts in the Earth markets In our previous works 1 2 we showed that correspondent response may have place in the specific locations characterized by a high sensitivity of the weather cloudiness in particular to cosmic ray variation b risk zone agriculture c isolated wheat market with limited external supply of agriculture production We showed that in this situation we may wait specific price burst reaction on unfavorable phase of solar activity and space weather what lead to corresponding abnormalities in the local weather and next crop failure We showed that main types of manifestation of this connection are a Distribution of intervals between price bursts must be like to the distribution of intervals between correspondent extremes of solar activity minimums or maximums b price asymmetry between opposite states of solar activity price in the one type of activity state is systematically higher then in the opposite one We showed in our previous publications that this influence in interval distribution is detected with high reliability in Mediaeval England 1250-1700 both for wheat prices and price of consumables basket We showed that for period of Maunder Minimum price asymmetry of wheat prices observed all prices in minimum state of solar activity was higher the prices in the next maximum state We showed later that this price asymmetry had place in 20-th century in USA durum prices too In

  5. Assessing the impact of oil prices on firms of different sizes: Its tough being in the middle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sadorsky, Perry

    2008-01-01

    Recent empirical research has found evidence of a relationship between oil price movements and stock prices. Most published research investigates the relationship between oil price movements and stock prices using either economy-wide measures of stock prices or industry sector measures of stock prices. An important question that has largely gone unanswered relates to the relationship between oil prices and stock prices when the size of firms is allowed to vary. Relative to large firms, do oil price movements have larger or smaller impacts on the stock prices of small- or medium-sized firms? The answer to this question could have important policy implications that affect economic growth and prosperity. In this paper, a panel of firms is followed over a 17-year period to investigate the relationship between oil price movements, firm size, and stock prices. Evidence is found that shows the relationship between oil price movements and stock prices does vary with firm size and the relationship is strongest for medium-sized firms

  6. Valuation Struggles over Pricing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pallesen, Trine

    2016-01-01

    of creating political markets, and political prices, here understood as market distortion. This paper studies the ‘politics’ of pricing by following the adoption of the first feed-in tariff in France. Pricing as a way of achieving non-economic ends, such as climate mitigation, brings the values of several...... public goods into play, all the while prompting a translation of these values into a single price. Following the struggles over the pricing of wind power in the early 2000s, the study illustrates that rather than a pollution of the market sphere by that of politics, a politics of pricing can be observed...

  7. Movement disorders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leenders, K.L.

    1986-01-01

    This thesis describes the measurement of brain-tissue functions in patients with movement disorders using positron emission tomography (PET). This scanning technique is a method for direct in vivo quantitation of the regional tissue content of positron emitting radionuclides in brain (or other organs) in an essentially non-invasive way. Ch. 2 outlines some general features of PET and describes the scanner which has been used for the studies in this thesis. Also the tracer methodology, as applied to data investigations of movement disorders, are discussed. Ch. 3 contains the results of the PET investigations which were performed in the study of movement disorders. The results are presented in the form of 12 papers. The main goals of these studies were the understanding of the pathophysiology of Parkinson's disease, Huntington's chorea, Steele-Richardson-Olzewski syndrome and special case reports. Ch. 4 summarizes the results of these publications and Ch. 5 concludes the main part of this thesis with a general discussion of movement disorders in relation to PET investigations. 697 refs.; 60 figs.; 31 tabs

  8. Psychodynamic Movement

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Inge Nygaard

    2002-01-01

    This chapter/article describes the historical development of the disciplin Psychodynamic Movement. The importance of this disciplin for self-experience and for training in developing a therapist identy for the music therapy students are emphasized. Prototypeexercises developed and simplified...

  9. Mixed Movements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brabrand, Helle

    2010-01-01

    levels than those related to building, and this exploration is a special challenge and competence implicit artistic development work. The project Mixed Movements generates drawing-material, not primary as representation, but as a performance-based media, making the body being-in-the-media felt and appear...... as possible operational moves....

  10. The impact of the Asian crisis on the behavior of US and international petroleum prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hammoudeh, Shawkat; Li, Huimin

    2004-01-01

    The strong long-run relationships among the petroleum spot and futures prices have weakened after the Asian crisis as manifested in less co-integration among these prices. In the post-crisis period, the directional causal relationships have either changed the direction as in the case of WTI crude or weakened somewhat as in the case of NYMEX gasoline and heating oil. These changes should complicate the job of those who try to benefit from predicting the movements of petroleum prices after the Asian crisis. In the international gasoline spot markets, movements in the NYMEX gasoline price are found to precede movements in the Gulf Coast and Rotterdam gasoline prices in the pre-crisis period, and the movements of these prices and those of the Singapore price in the post-crisis period, implying that the NYMEX price is the gasoline leader in both periods. The Monday/Friday day-of-the-week effect is only significant for the NYMEX gasoline 1-month and 3-month futures prices and the Gulf Coast gasoline spot. Economic and political shocks related to the spot prices have greater impacts on all prices than shocks related to the futures prices, regardless of the petroleum type and the time period

  11. Modeling and forecasting electricity price jumps in the Nord Pool power market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knapik, Oskar

    extreme prices and forecasting of the price jumps is crucial for risk management and market design. In this paper, we consider the problem of the impact of fundamental price drivers on forecasting of price jumps in NordPool intraday market. We develop categorical time series models which take into account......For risk management traders in the electricity market are mainly interested in the risk of negative (drops) or of positive (spikes) price jumps, i.e. the sellers face the risk of negative price jumps while the buyers face the risk of positive price jumps. Understanding the mechanism that drive...

  12. PRICES IN COMPETITIVE SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    VADUVA MARIA

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Regularities of competitive market determine rules for determining prices and their dynamics. Orientation prices to competition (competitive pricing is the strategy most frequently used in countries with market economies and especially for exports. Moreover, in an economy dominated by market competition it cannot be ignored without certain risks the prices resulting from competition between products bidders. Companies that use this type of strategy seek to maintain a level of prices linked to that charged by other competitors (or exporting producers generally no longer covering production costs or demand, relying on the assumption that the average market price is a reasonable basis of costs. But the way how practical guidance and reporting to the competition in every price strategy, will be determined by the company's market position, by the available power and enjoyed prestige, objectives and prospects of its market share etc. according to these elements, there may be several versions of pricing strategies oriented to competitors.

  13. Retail Price Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Retail Price Model is a tool to estimate the average retail electricity prices - under both competitive and regulated market structures - using power sector projections and assumptions from the Energy Information Administration.

  14. Natural gas pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Freedenthal, C.

    1993-01-01

    Natural gas pricing is the heart and soul of the gas business. Price specifically affects every phase of the industry. Too low a price will result in short supplies as seen in the mid-1970s when natural gas was scarce and in tight supply. To fully understand the pricing of this energy commodity, it is important to understand the total energy picture. In addition, the effect and impact of world and US economies, and economics in general are crucial to understanding natural gas pricing. The purpose of this presentation will be to show the parameters going into US natural gas pricing including the influence of the many outside industry factors like crude oil and coal pricing, market drivers pushing the gas industry, supply/demand parameters, risk management for buyers and sellers, and other elements involved in pricing analysis

  15. Drug Pricing Reforms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaiser, Ulrich; Mendez, Susan J.; Rønde, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    Reference price systems for prescription drugs have found widespread use as cost containment tools. Under such regulatory regimes, patients co-pay a fraction of the difference between pharmacy retail price of the drug and a reference price. Reference prices are either externally (based on drug...... prices in other countries) or internally (based on domestic drug prices) determined. In a recent study, we analysed the effects of a change from external to internal reference pricing in Denmark in 2005, finding that the reform led to substantial reductions in prices, producer revenues, and expenditures...... for patients and the health insurance system. We also estimated an increase in consumer welfare but the size effect depends on whether or not perceived quality differences between branded and other drugs are taken into account....

  16. Oil price fluctuations and U.S. dollar exchange rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lizardo, Radhames A.; Mollick, Andre V.

    2010-01-01

    Adding oil prices to the monetary model of exchange rates, we find that oil prices significantly explain movements in the value of the U.S. dollar (USD) against major currencies from the 1970s to 2008. Our long-run and forecasting results are remarkably consistent with an oil-exchange rate relationship. Increases in real oil prices lead to a significant depreciation of the USD against net oil exporter currencies, such as Canada, Mexico, and Russia. On the other hand, the currencies of oil importers, such as Japan, depreciate relative to the USD when the real oil price goes up. (author)

  17. NUKEM adjusts price definitions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1994-01-01

    This article is the October-November 1994 market report, providing trading volume and prices in the Uranium market. During this period, there were five deals in the spot concentrates market, five deals in the medium and long-term market, one deal in the conversion market, and two deals in the enrichment market. Restricted prices strengthened while unrestricted prices held steady. Price re-definitions were also announced

  18. Delegating Pricing Decisions

    OpenAIRE

    Pradeep Bhardwaj

    2001-01-01

    An outstanding problem in marketing is why some firms in a competitive market delegate pricing decisions to agents and other firms do not. This paper analyzes the impact of competition on the delegation decision and, in turn, the impact of delegation on prices and incentives. The theory builds on the simplest framework of competition in two dimensions: prices and (sales agents') effort. Specifically, we are interested in answering the following questions: (1) Does competition affect the price...

  19. Food Price Volatility and Decadal Climate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, M. E.

    2013-12-01

    The agriculture system is under pressure to increase production every year as global population expands and more people move from a diet mostly made up of grains, to one with more meat, dairy and processed foods. Weather shocks and large changes in international commodity prices in the last decade have increased pressure on local food prices. This paper will review several studies that link climate variability as measured with satellite remote sensing to food price dynamics in 36 developing countries where local monthly food price data is available. The focus of the research is to understand how weather and climate, as measured by variations in the growing season using satellite remote sensing, has affected agricultural production, food prices and access to food in agricultural societies. Economies are vulnerable to extreme weather at multiple levels. Subsistence small holders who hold livestock and consume much of the food they produce are vulnerable to food production variability. The broader society, however, is also vulnerable to extreme weather because of the secondary effects on market functioning, resource availability, and large-scale impacts on employment in trading, trucking and wage labor that are caused by weather-related shocks. Food price variability captures many of these broad impacts and can be used to diagnose weather-related vulnerability across multiple sectors. The paper will trace these connections using market-level data and analysis. The context of the analysis is the humanitarian aid community, using the guidance of the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network and the United Nation's World Food Program in their response to food security crises. These organizations have worked over the past three decades to provide baseline information on food production through satellite remote sensing data and agricultural yield models, as well as assessments of food access through a food price database. Econometric models and spatial analysis are used

  20. When the weather governs the price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braaten, Jan

    2003-01-01

    In the winter 2002-2003 the Nordic power market experienced a price shock: prices rose by a factor of eight during the autumn of 2002. This was caused above all by a record failure of the water influx to the entire Nordic hydropower system. But extreme cold and technical problems with import from the Continent aggravated the problem. The probability of so small influx in autumn is less than 0.5 per cent. The large variation in influx, in particular from one year to the next, create large price fluctuations which can be unpleasant for the consumers. At the same time the price mechanism is important for the proper balance between demand and supply. It was the high prices that last winter raised the import to Norway and Sweden and that caused idle fossil power stations to be restarted and the consumption to go down. A better energy balance in Norway and Sweden will increase the supply security, but in order to exploit the unstable hydropower resources well and to achieve an acceptable supply security in dry years flexibility is needed in production, consumption, and trade with the surrounding world. Most measures to increase the flexibility cost money, and it is probably impossible and economically undesirable to protect the consumers from all price shocks. It should be possible, however, for those who want stable expenses, to choose contracts with firm prices for the whole consumption or for part of it.

  1. Price competition on graphs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soetevent, A.R.

    2010-01-01

    This paper extends Hotelling's model of price competition with quadratic transportation costs from a line to graphs. I propose an algorithm to calculate firm-level demand for any given graph, conditional on prices and firm locations. One feature of graph models of price competition is that spatial

  2. Press point on prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schilansky, J.L.

    2005-06-01

    This document presents information and statistical data on the prices of the crude oils, refining and petroleum products, at the date of the 28 June 2005: evolution of the barrel price, supply and demand, geo-policy, consumption, diesel and gasoline, prices at the service station. (A.L.B.)

  3. Price control and macromarketing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kancir Rade

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Price control at macro level is part of integral macro marketing strategic control system, or more precisely, part of social marketing mix control. Price impact is direct, if it is regarded in the context of needs satisfaction, and indirect, within the context of resource allocation. These two patterns of price impact define control mechanism structuring. Price control in sense of its direct impact at process of need satisfaction should comprise qualitative and quantitative level of needs satisfaction at a given price level and its structure, informational dimension of price and different disputable forms of corporate pricing policies. Control of price allocation function is based at objectives of macro marketing system management in the area of resource allocation and the role of price as allocator in contemporary market economies. Control process is founded, on one hand, at theoretical models of correlation between price and demand in different market structures, and on the other hand, at complex limits that price as allocator has, and which make whole control process even more complex because of reduction of the degree of determinism in functioning of contemporary economic systems. Control of price allocation function must be continuous and dynamic process if it is to provide for convergence with environmental changes and if it is to provide for placing control systems at micro marketing levels in the function of socially valid objectives.

  4. Simulating Price-Taking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engelhardt, Lucas M.

    2015-01-01

    In this article, the author presents a price-takers' market simulation geared toward principles-level students. This simulation demonstrates that price-taking behavior is a natural result of the conditions that create perfect competition. In trials, there is a significant degree of price convergence in just three or four rounds. Students find this…

  5. Dutch house price fundamentals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haffner, M.E.A.; de Vries, P.

    2009-01-01

    This paper discusses house price developments in the Netherlands, specifically focussing on the question whether current house prices in the Dutch owner-occupied market are likely to decrease. We analyse three aspects of the question based on a literature review: (1) whether there is a house price

  6. Analysing the relationship between wholesale and end-user prices in the Nordic electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewis, P.E.; Johnsen, T.A.; Naervae, T.; Wasti, S.

    2004-09-01

    Efficient pricing in a deregulated market means prices which closely reflect the cost of obtaining electricity in the wholesale market. This research report analyses and explains the relationship between wholesale prices (especially Spot Prices) and end-user prices for residential, industrial and commercial users in the Finnish, Swedish and Norwegian electricity markets. The report primarily analyses the closeness of wholesale and end-user price patterns (the primary tracking period is 1998-2003, focusing especially closely on Finland and the period 2002-2003). The report reveals that Finnish, Norwegian and Swedish end- user prices can all be said to follow spot prices (and other wholesale prices) to a greater or lesser extent. The relationship is however complex and, especially regarding spot prices, clearly closest in Norway, followed by Sweden and then Finland. Whilst, overall, Finnish prices seem quite competitive and Nordic end-user prices currently seem to be extremely similar, there is some cause for concern in Finland. In particular, very few customers have spot based tariffs; wholesale prices (including spot prices) appear to sometimes have been used as an excuse for end-user price rises; Finnish suppliers have often been slow to respond to post-spike spot price reductions; offer prices are currently often higher than standard variable prices; and suppliers seem quite free to follow any pricing strategy, regardless of the presence of competition. Six factors are identified which influence end-user prices and their relationship with wholesale (and particularly spot) prices: hydro-dependency; concentration and entry barriers; cultural and historical determination; legislation; pricing strategies; the competitive environment. The report additionally specifically illustrates a wide variety of possible supplier strategies which might explain Finnish end-user pricing. Spot prices seem to provide only a minor explanation for Finnish end-user prices. (orig.)

  7. Analyzing the effects of past prices on reference price formation

    OpenAIRE

    van Oest, R.D.; Paap, R.

    2004-01-01

    textabstractWe propose a new reference price framework for brand choice. In this framework, we employ a Markov-switching process with an absorbing state to model unobserved price recall of households. Reference prices result from the prices households are able to remember. Our model can be used to learn how many prices observed in the past are used for reference price formation. Furthermore, we learn to what extent households have sufficient price knowledge to form an internal reference price...

  8. Estimating temporary and permanent stock price innovations on Croatian capital market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tihana Škrinjarić

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper evaluates the size and duration of temporary and permanent stock price innovations on Croatian capital market in the structural VAR (vector autoregression framework with Blanchard and Quah (1989 decomposition. The purpose is to identify the effects of temporary price innovations in order to determine to which extent future stock prices can be predicted. Temporary components present in stock prices are explained throughout the mean-reversion hypothesis. This means that stock prices deviate from the fundamental values, but they will revert to their mean. In that way, to some extent, it is possible to predict future price movements. The results show that for the observed period from January 2000 to September 2013, temporary innovations account for only 2.62% of price variability over a two-year horizon. This means that forecasting the future movements of stock prices on Zagreb Stock Exchange is a difficult task.

  9. Internet resource pricing models

    CERN Document Server

    Xu, Ke; He, Huan

    2013-01-01

    This brief guides the reader through three basic Internet resource pricing models using an Internet cost analysis. Addressing the evolution of service types, it presents several corresponding mechanisms which can ensure pricing implementation and resource allocation. The authors discuss utility optimization of network pricing methods in economics and underline two classes of pricing methods including system optimization and entities' strategic optimization. The brief closes with two examples of the newly proposed pricing strategy helping to solve the profit distribution problem brought by P2P

  10. Value-based pricing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Netseva-Porcheva Tatyana

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The main aim of the paper is to present the value-based pricing. Therefore, the comparison between two approaches of pricing is made - cost-based pricing and value-based pricing. The 'Price sensitively meter' is presented. The other topic of the paper is the perceived value - meaning of the perceived value, the components of perceived value, the determination of perceived value and the increasing of perceived value. In addition, the best company strategies in matrix 'value-cost' are outlined. .

  11. Characteristics of the prices of operating reserves and regulation services in competitive electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Peng; Zareipour, Hamidreza; Rosehart, William D.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, characteristics of the prices of reserves and regulation services in the Ontario, New York and ERCOT electricity markets are studied. More specifically, price variability, price jumps, long-range correlation, and non-linearity of the prices are analyzed using the available measures in the literature. For the Ontario electricity market, the prices of 10-min spinning, 10-min non-spinning, and 30-min operating reserves for the period May 1, 2002 to December 31, 2007 are analyzed. For the New York market, prices of the same reserves plus regulation service are studied for the period February 5, 2005 to December 31, 2008. For the ERCOT market, we analyze the prices of responsive reserve, regulation up and regulation down services, for the period January 1, 2005 to December 31, 2009. The studied characteristics of operating reserve and regulation prices are also compared with those of energy prices. The findings of this paper show that the studied reserve and regulation prices feature extreme volatility, more frequent jumps and spikes, different peak price occurrence time, and lower predictability, compared to the energy prices. - Research highlights: → We examine various statistical characteristics of reserve and regulation prices. → We compare characteristics of reserve and regulation and energy prices. → Reserve and regulation prices feature different patterns from energy prices. → Reserve and regulation prices are more dispersive and volatile than energy price.

  12. The third oil price surge. What's different this time?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kesicki, Fabian

    2010-01-01

    The period from 2003 to 2008 was marked by an oil price increase comparable to the two oil price crises in the 1970s. This paper looks in detail at the situation of the oil price crises 30 years ago and compares them along various aspects on the demand and supply side with the recent price increase to identify similarities and differences. While both oil price crises in 1973 and 1979/1980 were ultimately caused by supply actions of members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), all three oil price crises were preceded by high demand growth. Other aspects that favoured a high oil price in all three cases were low investments in new oil fields, as a consequence low spare capacity, and a weak US dollar. In addition, the recent oil price surge has been characterised by a high global refinery utilisation and refineries that did not adapt fast enough to the rising demand for lighter oil products. Moreover, broader geopolitical uncertainties, combined with risks associated with the oil trade helped push the oil price into a triple-digit zone. Speculation played only a limited and temporary role in accelerating price movements during the recent price increase. (author)

  13. Computational movement analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Laube, Patrick

    2014-01-01

    This SpringerBrief discusses the characteristics of spatiotemporal movement data, including uncertainty and scale. It investigates three core aspects of Computational Movement Analysis: Conceptual modeling of movement and movement spaces, spatiotemporal analysis methods aiming at a better understanding of movement processes (with a focus on data mining for movement patterns), and using decentralized spatial computing methods in movement analysis. The author presents Computational Movement Analysis as an interdisciplinary umbrella for analyzing movement processes with methods from a range of fi

  14. Market fundamentals, competition and natural-gas prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hulshof, Daan; Maat, Jan-Pieter van der; Mulder, Machiel

    2016-01-01

    After the liberalisation of the gas industry, trading hubs have emerged in Europe. Although these hubs appear to be liquid market places fostering gas-to-gas competition, the efficiency of the gas market remains a topic of interest as a fair share of gas is still traded through long-term contracts with prices linked to the oil price while the number of gas suppliers to the European market is limited. In order to assess the efficiency of the gas market, we analyse the day-ahead spot price at the Dutch gas hub over the period 2011–2014. We find that the oil price had a small positive impact on the gas price. Changes in the concentration on the supply side did not affect the movement in gas prices. The availability of gas in storages and the outside temperature negatively influenced the gas price. We also find that the gas price was related to the production of wind electricity. Overall, we conclude that the day-ahead gas prices are predominantly determined by gas-market fundamentals. Policies to further integrate gas markets within Europe may extend this gas-to-gas competition to a larger region. - Highlights: •We analyse the development of the day-ahead spot price at TTF over 2011–2014. •The oil price had a small impact on the gas price, while the coal price had no effect. •Changes in the concentration on the supply side did not affect the gas prices. •The gas prices are predominantly determined by weather and storage availability. •Policies to integrate gas markets foster gas-to-gas competition.

  15. World oil and agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from nonlinear causality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nazlioglu, Saban

    2011-01-01

    The increasing co-movements between the world oil and agricultural commodity prices have renewed interest in determining price transmission from oil prices to those of agricultural commodities. This study extends the literature on the oil-agricultural commodity prices nexus, which particularly concentrates on nonlinear causal relationships between the world oil and three key agricultural commodity prices (corn, soybeans, and wheat). To this end, the linear causality approach of Toda-Yamamoto and the nonparametric causality method of Diks-Panchenko are applied to the weekly data spanning from 1994 to 2010. The linear causality analysis indicates that the oil prices and the agricultural commodity prices do not influence each other, which supports evidence on the neutrality hypothesis. In contrast, the nonlinear causality analysis shows that: (i) there are nonlinear feedbacks between the oil and the agricultural prices, and (ii) there is a persistent unidirectional nonlinear causality running from the oil prices to the corn and to the soybeans prices. The findings from the nonlinear causality analysis therefore provide clues for better understanding the recent dynamics of the agricultural commodity prices and some policy implications for policy makers, farmers, and global investors. This study also suggests the directions for future studies. - Research highlights: → This study determines the price transmission mechanisms between the world oil and three key agricultural commodity prices (corn, soybeans, and wheat). → The linear and nonlinear cointegration and causality methods are carried out. → The linear causality analysis supports evidence on the neutrality hypothesis. → The nonlinear causality analysis shows that there is a persistent unidirectional causality from the oil prices to the corn and to the soybeans prices.

  16. Global oil prices, macroeconomic fundamentals and China's commodity sector comovements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Peng

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates the common movements of commodity sectors in China as well as the economic underpinnings of the comovements. We employ a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model to disentangle the common and idiosyncratic sector-specific factors of the prices of a group of China's commodity sectors: petrochemicals, grains, energy, non-ferrous metals, oils & fats, and softs. The results indicate that the common factor accounts for a significant portion of the fluctuations of China's commodity sectors, providing evidence of the strong commodity sector comovements in China. We further use a VAR model to link the common movements across China's commodity sectors to the underlying determinants, including global oil price shocks and domestic macroeconomic fluctuations. We find that the global oil price shocks have strong effects on the common movements across commodity sectors in China in addition to its domestic macroeconomic fluctuations at long horizons. However, at short horizons, the common movements across commodity sectors in China respond more strongly to the global oil shocks than to its domestic macroeconomic fluctuations. - Highlights: • We examine the comovements of commodity prices at the industry level in China. • The common factor accounts for a significant portion of commodity sector fluctuations. • We investigate the joint impacts of global oil price shocks and domestic macro fluctuations on the comovements. • The global oil price shocks have persistent and strong effects on the comovements. • The impacts of domestic macro fluctuations on the comovements differ at short and long horizons.

  17. Determinants Of Equity Prices In The Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Usman Javaid

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the effect of market variables on the movement stock prices in Pakistan. Asset pricing is considered as efficient if the asset prices reflect all available market information. This study examined the extent to which some "information factors" or market indices affect the stock price. A simple regression model has been used to develop a relation between the variables (stock prices, earnings per share, gross domestic product, dividend, inflation and KIBOR after testing for multi-collinearity among the independent variables. All the variables have shown positive correlation with stock prices with some exceptions of GDP and inflation. This study has enriched the existing literature while it would help policy makers who are interested in deploying instruments of monetary policy and other economic indices for the growth of the capital market.

  18. Trends and prospects of international major commodity prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Cartas

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Trends and prospects of international major commodity prices. In 2012, the international commodity markets have seen declining prices, especially during the first half of the year, with some improvement mainly in the last quarter. On the whole, most of major commodity prices declined, following generally weaker demand and the uncertain global economic situation. The short term outlook shows broad declines of prices for all major commodity groups, including oil and excepting metal prices, which are expected to be sustained by the global economic recovery and increasing demand, mainly in China. This country represents a major player, with a great contribution to the movement of prices on most of international commodity markets, as she has a great role in the world consumption and trade of commodities, as well as in the world production of some of these goods, on the one hand, and enjoys huge financial resources, on the other.

  19. 7 CFR 1131.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1131.53 Section 1131.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

  20. 7 CFR 1005.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1005.53 Section 1005.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

  1. 7 CFR 1124.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1124.53 Section 1124.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

  2. 7 CFR 1126.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1126.53 Section 1126.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

  3. 7 CFR 1032.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1032.53 Section 1032.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

  4. 7 CFR 1030.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1030.53 Section 1030.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

  5. 7 CFR 1033.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1033.53 Section 1033.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

  6. 7 CFR 1001.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1001.53 Section 1001.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

  7. 7 CFR 1007.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1007.53 Section 1007.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

  8. 7 CFR 1006.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1006.53 Section 1006.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

  9. Arbitrage Pricing, Capital Asset Pricing, and Agricultural Assets

    OpenAIRE

    Louise M. Arthur; Colin A. Carter; Fay Abizadeh

    1988-01-01

    A new asset pricing model, the arbitrage pricing theory, has been developed as an alternative to the capital asset pricing model. The arbitrage pricing theory model is used to analyze the relationship between risk and return for agricultural assets. The major conclusion is that the arbitrage pricing theory results support previous capital asset pricing model findings that the estimated risk associated with agricultural assets is low. This conclusion is more robust for the arbitrage pricing th...

  10. Price strategy and pricing strategy: terms and content identification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Panasenko Tetyana

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the terminology and content identification of seemingly identical concepts "price strategy" and "pricing strategy". The article contains evidence that the price strategy determines the direction, principles and procedure of implementing the company price policy and pricing strategy creates a set of rules and practical methods of price formation in accordance with the pricing strategy of the company.

  11. Stock Price Manipulation: The Role of Intermediaries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hammad Siddiqi

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available We model a scenario in which there are three types of investors: fundamentalists, speculators, and trend-followers and an intermediary who cares about his reputation. Fundamentalists are rational investors with long horizons who are interested in the dividend stream. Speculators are rational investors who have short horizons and are interested in profiting from short-term price movements or capital gains. Trend-followers are behavioral investors who extrapolate price trends, and, consequently, are late entrants in the market. We show that an informed intermediary (broker can manipulate demand (consequently stock price without losing his reputation when there is information asymmetry. We also show that there is a trade-off between broker level competition for reputation and market liquidity. Broker level competition checks manipulation, but it adversely affects market liquidity.

  12. Do stock prices drive people crazy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Chung-Liang; Chen, Chin-Shyan; Liu, Tsai-Ching

    2015-03-01

    This is the first research to examine a potential relation between stock market volatility and mental disorders. Using data on daily incidences of mental disorders in Taiwan over 4000 days from 1998 through 2009 to assess the time-series relation between stock price movements and mental disorders, we observe that stock price fluctuation clearly affects the hospitalization of mental disorders. We find that during a 12-year follow-up period, a low stock price index, a daily fall in the stock price index and consecutive daily falls in the stock price index are all associated with greater of mental disorders hospitalizations. A 1000-point fall in the TAIEX (Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index) increases the number of daily mental disorders hospitalizations by 4.71%. A 1% fall in the TAIEX in one single day increases daily hospitalizations for mental disorders by 0.36%. When the stock price index falls one consecutive day, it causes a daily increase of approximately 0.32% hospitalizations due to mental disorders on that day. Stock price index is found to be significant for both gender and all age groups. In addition, daily change is significant for both gender and middle-age groups, whereas accumulated change is significant for males and people aged 45-64. Stockholdings can help people accumulate wealth, but they can also increase mental disorders hospitalizations. In other words, stock price fluctuations do drive people crazy. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine © The Author 2014; all rights reserved.

  13. The Pricing of Foreign Currency Futures Options

    OpenAIRE

    Chang Mo Ahn

    1996-01-01

    We derive semi-closed form solutions for the forward and futures exchange rates, European foreign currency options, currency forward options, and currency futures options when the domestic and foreign interest rate movements follow mean reverting diffusion processes. These solutions are consistent with the Black-Scholes option formula so that they can be easily applied. The impact of interest rate uncertainty on theoretical prices of currency futures options is too significant to be neglected.

  14. "Overreaction" of Asset Prices in General Equilibrium

    OpenAIRE

    Aiyagari, S.R.; Gertler, M.

    1998-01-01

    We attempt to explain the overreaction of asset prices to movements in short-term interest rates, dividends, and asset supplies. The key element of our explanation is a margin constraint that traders face which limits their leverage to a fraction of the value of their assets. Traders may lever themselves, further, either directly by borrowing short term or indirectly by engaging in futures and options trading, so that the scenario is relevant to contemporary financial markets. When some shock...

  15. STS pricing policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, C. M.; Stone, B.

    1982-01-01

    In 1977 NASA published Shuttle Reimbursement Policies for Civil U.S. Government, DOD and Commercial and Foreign Users. These policies were based on the principle of total cost recovery over a period of time with a fixed flat price for initial period to time to enhance transition. This fixed period was to be followed with annual adjustments thereafter, NASA is establishing a new price for 1986 and beyond. In order to recover costs, that price must be higher than the initial fixed price through FY 1985. NASA intends to remain competitive. Competitive posture includes not only price, but other factors such as assured launch, reliability, and unique services. NASA's pricing policy considers all these factors.

  16. Target Price Accuracy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander G. Kerl

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes the accuracy of forecasted target prices within analysts’ reports. We compute a measure for target price forecast accuracy that evaluates the ability of analysts to exactly forecast the ex-ante (unknown 12-month stock price. Furthermore, we determine factors that explain this accuracy. Target price accuracy is negatively related to analyst-specific optimism and stock-specific risk (measured by volatility and price-to-book ratio. However, target price accuracy is positively related to the level of detail of each report, company size and the reputation of the investment bank. The potential conflicts of interests between an analyst and a covered company do not bias forecast accuracy.

  17. Pricing of new vaccines

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, Bruce Y; McGlone, Sarah M

    2010-01-01

    New vaccine pricing is a complicated process that could have substantial long-standing scientific, medical and public health ramifications. Pricing can have a considerable impact on new vaccine adoption and, thereby, either culminate or thwart years of research and development and public health efforts. Typically, pricing strategy consists of the following eleven components: (1) Conduct a target population analysis; (2) Map potential competitors and alternatives; (3) Construct a vaccine targe...

  18. Land Prices and Fundamentals

    OpenAIRE

    Koji Nakamura; Yumi Saita

    2007-01-01

    This paper examines the long-term relationship between macro economic fundamentals and the weighted-average land price indicators, which are supposed to be more appropriate than the official land price indicators when analyzing their impacts on the macro economy. In many cases, we find the cointegrating relationships between the weighted-average land price indicators and the discounted present value of land calculated based on the macro economic fundamentals indicators. We also find that the ...

  19. Introduction to pricing issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1991-01-01

    This chapter provides an overview of pricing issues the proper pricing of transmission services is essential to efficient operation of the grid. Wheeling rights have little meaning if capacity on existing lines is scarce and there is no incentive to build new lines. Depending on the type of transmission pricing policies FERC adopts, the Commission may be able to encourage more voluntary wheeling service, and to influence decisions to build or upgrade the supply of facilities

  20. Cost and Price Collaboration

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-30

    described below which relies on questionnaires administered to subject matter experts in both cost analysis and price analysis to determine the value of...additional reports or data that the price analyst used in determining their final negotiated position. The cost analyst section of the questionnaire...an analysis at the individual element level rather than at a total price level to determine the major changes from the awarded contract to the new

  1. Fuel prices around the world: From prosperity to turmoil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    This issue examines price changes of petroleum products in some 40 countries around the world. Both political turmoil and economic prosperity shape government policy in managing consumer prices of petroleum products. Brazil has experienced extreme political and economic instability that sent prices skyrocketing and the national currency plummeting. Meanwhile, economic growth in South Korea has given the population the wealth for automobiles and stretched the country's ability to supply its unquenchable demand. Fuel prices around the world were higher in July 1992 than in January 1992, mainly due to higher crude prices. This issue also presents the following: (1) the ED Refining Netback Data Series for the US Gulf and West Coasts, Rotterdam, and Singapore as of October 23, 1992; and (2) the ED Fuel Price/Tax Series for countries of the Eastern Hemisphere, October 1992 edition

  2. 1988 coal price negotiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Senmura, Akira

    1988-12-01

    In the negotiation on raw coal price for 1988, which began at the end of 1987, Australia requested price rise of 4 - 5 dollars for the reason of rise of Australian dollars, conditions of mines, price drop in the past five years, and world supply/demand of coal. Japan insisted to maintain the price of preceding year. The talk ended in a dead lock which could last a long time. Negotiation on the Canadian coal price also encountered difficulties but an agreement was obtained in March as Japan accepted the increased price. After which, Japan and Australia agreed to raise the price by 2.90 dollars and an increase over last year. Producing countries also requested a wide price rise as 7.50 dollars for general coal, making in this area very difficult to progress. Finally, they agreed to raise the price by 6.30 dollars and the electric power utility in Japan responded by importing of U.S. coal, which has a lower heat output but is also cheaper. It depends on Australia for 70% of coal supply but started to diversify the source. 3 tabs.

  3. Are internet prices sticky?

    OpenAIRE

    Lünnemann, Patrick; Wintr, Ladislav

    2006-01-01

    This paper studies the behaviour of Internet prices. It compares price rigidities on the Internet and in traditional brick-and-mortar stores and provides a cross-country perspective. The data set covers a broad range of items typically sold over the Internet. It includes more than 5 million daily price quotes downloaded from price comparison web sites in France, Germany, Italy, the UK and the US. The following results emerge from our analysis. First, and contrary to the recent findings for co...

  4. Regulation of Pharmaceutical Prices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaiser, Ulrich; Méndez, Susan J.; Rønde, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    Reference prices constitute a main determinant of patient health care reimbursement in many countries. We study the effects of a change from an "external" (based on a basket of prices in other countries) to an "internal" (based on comparable domestic products) reference price system. We find...... that while our estimated consumer compensating variation is small, the reform led to substantial reductions in list and reference prices as well as co-payments, and to sizeable decreases in overall producer revenues, health care expenditures, and co-payments. These effects differ markedly between branded...

  5. Regulation of Pharmaceutical Prices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaiser, Ulrich; Méndez, Susan J.; Rønde, Thomas

    Reference prices constitute a main determinant of patient health care reimbursement in many countries. We study the effects of a change from an "external" (based on a basket of prices in other countries) to an "internal" (based on comparable domestic products) reference price system. We find...... that while our estimated consumer compensating variation is small, the reform led to substantial reductions in list and reference prices as well as co-payments, and to sizeable decreases in overall producer revenues, health care expenditures, and co-payments. These effects differ markedly between branded...

  6. Alternative pricing methodologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1991-01-01

    With the increased interest in competitive market forces and growing recognition of the deficiencies in current practices, FERC and others are exploring alternatives to embedded cost pricing. A number of these alternatives are discussed in this chapter. Marketplace pricing, discussed briefly here, is the subject of the next chapter. Obviously, the pricing formula may combine several of these methodologies. One utility of which the authors are aware is seeking a price equal to the sum of embedded costs, opportunity costs, line losses, value of service, FERC's percentage adder formula and a contract service charge

  7. Determinants of contractor pricing strategy

    OpenAIRE

    Moses, O. Douglas

    1988-01-01

    This paper investigates pricing strategies used by major defense contractors. Two pricing strategies are identified and discussed: penetration, which calls for a relatively low initial price followed by little reduction in price over time, and skimming, which calls for a relatively high initial price coupled with greater reduction in price over time. It is argued that contractor pricing strategy will depend on features of the defense program under consideration and featur...

  8. Customizing Prices in Online Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Werner Reinartz

    2002-01-01

    Dynamic pricing is the dynamic adjustment of prices to consumers depending on the value these customers attribute to a good. Underlying the concept of dynamic pricing is what marketers call price customization. Price customization is the charging of different prices to end consumers based on a discriminatory variable. Internet technology will serve as a great enabling tool for making dynamic pricing accessible to many industries.

  9. Adaptation of warrant price with Black Scholes model and historical volatility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aziz, Khairu Azlan Abd; Idris, Mohd Fazril Izhar Mohd; Saian, Rizauddin; Daud, Wan Suhana Wan

    2015-05-01

    This project discusses about pricing warrant in Malaysia. The Black Scholes model with non-dividend approach and linear interpolation technique was applied in pricing the call warrant. Three call warrants that are listed in Bursa Malaysia were selected randomly from UiTM's datastream. The finding claims that the volatility for each call warrants are different to each other. We have used the historical volatility which will describes the price movement by which an underlying share is expected to fluctuate within a period. The Black Scholes model price that was obtained by the model will be compared with the actual market price. Mispricing the call warrants will contribute to under or over valuation price. Other variables like interest rate, time to maturity date, exercise price and underlying stock price are involves in pricing call warrants as well as measuring the moneyness of call warrants.

  10. Relating price strategies and price-setting practices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ingenbleek, P.T.M.; Lans, van der I.A.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose - This article addresses the relationship between price strategies and price-setting practices. The first derive from a normative tradition in the pricing literature and the latter from a descriptive tradition. Price strategies are visible in the market, whereas price-setting practices are

  11. Intranational Price Convergence and Price Stickiness

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bergman, Ulf Michael; Heebøll, Christian; Hansen, Niels Lynggaard

    2017-01-01

    We show that estimates of the half-life of deviations from LOOP are biased when not taking into account the precision when aggregating over types of goods. Using a comprehensive dataset with monthly price data for 124 homogeneous products across regions in Denmark over the period 1997–2010 we find...... a large positive aggregation bias. On average, we find that the half-life is 8.4 months when taking the bias into account compared to 28.7 months when applying the standard method. The heterogeneity in estimated half-life can be explained by price stickiness, distance between regions and whether the good...

  12. Modeling spot markets for electricity and pricing electricity derivatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ning, Yumei

    Spot prices for electricity have been very volatile with dramatic price spikes occurring in restructured market. The task of forecasting electricity prices and managing price risk presents a new challenge for market players. The objectives of this dissertation are: (1) to develop a stochastic model of price behavior and predict price spikes; (2) to examine the effect of weather forecasts on forecasted prices; (3) to price electricity options and value generation capacity. The volatile behavior of prices can be represented by a stochastic regime-switching model. In the model, the means of the high-price and low-price regimes and the probabilities of switching from one regime to the other are specified as functions of daily peak load. The probability of switching to the high-price regime is positively related to load, but is still not high enough at the highest loads to predict price spikes accurately. An application of this model shows how the structure of the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland market changed when market-based offers were allowed, resulting in higher price spikes. An ARIMA model including temperature, seasonal, and weekly effects is estimated to forecast daily peak load. Forecasts of load under different assumptions about weather patterns are used to predict changes of price behavior given the regime-switching model of prices. Results show that the range of temperature forecasts from a normal summer to an extremely warm summer cause relatively small increases in temperature (+1.5%) and load (+3.0%). In contrast, the increases in prices are large (+20%). The conclusion is that the seasonal outlook forecasts provided by NOAA are potentially valuable for predicting prices in electricity markets. The traditional option models, based on Geometric Brownian Motion are not appropriate for electricity prices. An option model using the regime-switching framework is developed to value a European call option. The model includes volatility risk and allows changes

  13. Price learning during grocery shopping

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Birger Boutrup

    Many attempts have been made to measure consumers' price knowledge for groceries. However, the results have varied considerably and conflict with results of reference price research. This is the first study to examine price knowledge before, during, and after store visit, thus enabling a study...... of what consumers learn about prices during grocery shopping. Three measures of price knowledge corresponding to different levels of price information processing were applied. Results indicate that price learning does take place and that episodic price knowledge after store exit is far more widespread...... than expected. Consequently, a new view of how consumer price knowledge evolves during grocery shopping is presented....

  14. Assessing Asset Pricing Anomalies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W.A. de Groot (Wilma)

    2017-01-01

    markdownabstractOne of the most important challenges in the field of asset pricing is to understand anomalies: empirical patterns in asset returns that cannot be explained by standard asset pricing models. Currently, there is no consensus in the academic literature on the underlying causes of

  15. Poverty and price transmission

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elleby, Christian

    A key parameter determining the welfare impact from a world market shock is the transmission elasticity which measures the average domestic response to an international price change. Many studies have estimated price transmission elasticities for a large number of countries but the variation in t...

  16. Essays on asset pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nazliben, Kamil

    2015-01-01

    The dissertation consists of three chapters that represent separate papers in the area of asset pricing. The first chapter studies investors optimal asset allocation problem in which mean reversion in stock prices is captured by explicitly modeling transitory and permanent shocks. The second chapter

  17. Pricing transmission services

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haaden, E.

    1995-01-01

    The price structure for transmission of electric power through the main lines in Sweden is analyzed. After deregulation of the electricity market, the main transmission lines are owned by a separate national company, with no interests from the power producers. Comparisons are made to ideal marginal price structures. 6 refs

  18. Selecting Lower Priced Items.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleinert, Harold L.; And Others

    1988-01-01

    A program used to teach moderately to severely mentally handicapped students to select the lower priced items in actual shopping activities is described. Through a five-phase process, students are taught to compare prices themselves as well as take into consideration variations in the sizes of containers and varying product weights. (VW)

  19. Petroleum: Price trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Babusiaux, Denis; Pierru, Axel

    2010-01-01

    The Organization of Petroleum-Exporting Countries (OPEC), some political leaders and financiers have mainly attributed the price spike of oil in 2008 - followed by a just as spectacular drop in prices - to the speculative moves made by financial investors on the futures market instead of to market fundamentals

  20. Pricing Mechanism in Information Goods

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Xinming; Wang, Huaqing

    2018-01-01

    We study three pricing mechanisms' performance and their effects on the participants in the data industry from the data supply chain perspective. A win-win pricing strategy for the players in the data supply chain is proposed. We obtain analytical solutions in each pricing mechanism, including the decentralized and centralized pricing, Nash Bargaining pricing, and revenue sharing mechanism.

  1. Price Formation by Bargaining and Posted Prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kultti, K.K.

    1997-01-01

    We study markets with two types of agents. Sellers have an indivisible good for sale, and their reservation value is zero. Buyers are randomly matched with sellers, and they value the good at unity. Sellers may be matched with any positive number of buyers, and they may choose to determine the price

  2. How to Find the Price That's Right.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crompton, John L.

    1981-01-01

    Five primary methods used by recreation and park agencies to establish a price are reviewed: (1) going-rate pricing; (2) demand oriented pricing; (3) variable cost pricing; (4) partial overhead pricing; and (5) average cost pricing. (CJ)

  3. Policy on energy pricing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Webb, M. G.

    1977-10-15

    Some economic principles of energy pricing in a market type economy in which there is consumer sovereignty are discussed. Thus resources will be allocated via the production processes in line with the preferences of consumers as revealed by their purchases of goods and services. Prices play the crucial role of coordinating instruments in this allocative process. It is assumed that all the energy industries are in the public sector. The following topics are discussed: the specification of objectives for the energy sector; marginal cost pricing; problems associated with the measurement of marginal costs; some aspects of the environmental costs associated with energy production and use, and some issues related to time differentiated tariffs; the modification of prices to achieve financial targets; and the use of energy prices to achieve income distribution objectives.

  4. Forecasting oil price trends using wavelets and hidden Markov models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Souza e Silva, Edmundo G. de; Souza e Silva, Edmundo A. de; Legey, Luiz F.L.

    2010-01-01

    The crude oil price is influenced by a great number of factors, most of which interact in very complex ways. For this reason, forecasting it through a fundamentalist approach is a difficult task. An alternative is to use time series methodologies, with which the price's past behavior is conveniently analyzed, and used to predict future movements. In this paper, we investigate the usefulness of a nonlinear time series model, known as hidden Markov model (HMM), to predict future crude oil price movements. Using an HMM, we develop a forecasting methodology that consists of, basically, three steps. First, we employ wavelet analysis to remove high frequency price movements, which can be assumed as noise. Then, the HMM is used to forecast the probability distribution of the price return accumulated over the next F days. Finally, from this distribution, we infer future price trends. Our results indicate that the proposed methodology might be a useful decision support tool for agents participating in the crude oil market. (author)

  5. Mind your pricing cues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Eric; Simester, Duncan

    2003-09-01

    For most of the items they buy, consumers don't have an accurate sense of what the price should be. Ask them to guess how much a four-pack of 35-mm film costs, and you'll get a variety of wrong answers: Most people will underestimate; many will only shrug. Research shows that consumers' knowledge of the market is so far from perfect that it hardly deserves to be called knowledge at all. Yet people happily buy film and other products every day. Is this because they don't care what kind of deal they're getting? No. Remarkably, it's because they rely on retailers to tell them whether they're getting a good price. In subtle and not-so-subtle ways, retailers send signals to customers, telling them whether a given price is relatively high or low. In this article, the authors review several common pricing cues retailers use--"sale" signs, prices that end in 9, signpost items, and price-matching guarantees. They also offer some surprising facts about how--and how well--those cues work. For instance, the authors' tests with several mail-order catalogs reveal that including the word "sale" beside a price can increase demand by more than 50%. The practice of using a 9 at the end of a price to denote a bargain is so common, you'd think customers would be numb to it. Yet in a study the authors did involving a women's clothing catalog, they increased demand by a third just by changing the price of a dress from $34 to $39. Pricing cues are powerful tools for guiding customers' purchasing decisions, but they must be applied judiciously. Used inappropriately, the cues may breach customers' trust, reduce brand equity, and give rise to lawsuits.

  6. Agent Based Model of Livestock Movements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miron, D. J.; Emelyanova, I. V.; Donald, G. E.; Garner, G. M.

    The modelling of livestock movements within Australia is of national importance for the purposes of the management and control of exotic disease spread, infrastructure development and the economic forecasting of livestock markets. In this paper an agent based model for the forecasting of livestock movements is presented. This models livestock movements from farm to farm through a saleyard. The decision of farmers to sell or buy cattle is often complex and involves many factors such as climate forecast, commodity prices, the type of farm enterprise, the number of animals available and associated off-shore effects. In this model the farm agent's intelligence is implemented using a fuzzy decision tree that utilises two of these factors. These two factors are the livestock price fetched at the last sale and the number of stock on the farm. On each iteration of the model farms choose either to buy, sell or abstain from the market thus creating an artificial supply and demand. The buyers and sellers then congregate at the saleyard where livestock are auctioned using a second price sealed bid. The price time series output by the model exhibits properties similar to those found in real livestock markets.

  7. Value based pricing: the least valued pricing strategy

    OpenAIRE

    Hoenen, Bob

    2017-01-01

    Pricing has been one of the least researched topics in marketing, although within these pricing strategies: cost-plus pricing is considered as the leading pricing strategy worldwide. Why should companies use such an unprofitable strategy, where fighting for a higher market share due to low prices is more a rule than exception? VBP is one of the most underestimated strategies by organizations. The definition of VBP is: 'value pricing applies to products that have the potential of being differe...

  8. TRADING ACTIVITY AND PRICES IN ENERGY FUTURES MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aysegul Ates

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to examine trading activity and the relationship between futures trading activity by trader type and energy price movements in three energy futures markets –natural gas, crude oil and heating oil. We find that the level of net positions of speculators are positively related to future returns and in contrast net positions of hedgers are negatively related to futures price changes in all three markets. The changes in net positions are relatively more informative compare to the level of net positions in predicting price changes in related markets.

  9. 7 CFR 1124.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1124.50 Section 1124.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued... prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

  10. 7 CFR 1030.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1030.50 Section 1030.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued... prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

  11. 7 CFR 1000.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... advanced pricing factors. 1000.53 Section 1000.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture..., component prices, and advanced pricing factors. (a) On or before the 5th day of the month, the market... administrator for each Federal milk marketing order shall announce the following prices and pricing factors for...

  12. Mideast crisis and pricing in the oil futures market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamed, A.H.

    1992-01-01

    Futures prices and the corresponding expected future cash price on crude oil markets differ. The difference is hypothesized to be due to a time varying risk premium where risk is due to either cash price volatility, oil output volatility, or unanticipated oil price movement. And this risk is measured by the conditional variance of the forementioned sources of risk. Using the ARCH (Autoregressive Conditional Heterosckdasticity) model and its extensions this study addresses the determination of the time varying risk premium. Political unrest in the Mideast oil exporting countries is hypothesized to be a determinant of the time varying risk premium in the oil futures market. The empirical tests allow informative inferences to be drawn on the role of political unrest in pricing oil

  13. Steel: Price and Policy Issues

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Cooney, Stephen

    2006-01-01

    Steel prices remain at historically elevated levels. The rapid growth of steel production and demand in China is widely considered as a major cause of the increases in both steel prices and the prices of steelmaking inputs...

  14. Pricing American and Asian Options

    OpenAIRE

    Pat Muldowney

    2015-01-01

    An analytic method for pricing American call options is provided; followed by an empirical method for pricing Asian call options. The methodology is the pricing theory presented in "A Modern Theory of Random Variation", by Patrick Muldowney, 2012.

  15. Oil Price Movements and Globalisation: Is There a Connection?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-09-01

    article, Nobel Prize winner Amartya Sen (2001), of Cambridge University, provides some basic answers to several of the key elements of this debate...Jeffrey (2000), “Globalization and patterns of economic development”, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, Vol. 136, No. 4. Sen , Amartya (2001), “If it’s fair...well served by the current system. Sen is suggesting that various parts of the world have evolved somewhat differ- ently over the last few decades and

  16. The oil price; Le prix du petrole

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alba, P. [Institut Francais du Petrole (IFP), 92 - Rueil-Malmaison (France)

    2000-05-01

    Statistical analysis cannot, alone, provide an oil price forecast. So, one needs to understand the fundamental phenomena which control the past trends since the end of world war II After a first period during which oil, thanks to its abundance, was able to increase its market share at the expense of other energies, the first oil shock reflects the rarefaction of oil resource with the tilting of the US production curve from growth to decline. Since then, the new situation is that of a ''cohabitation'' between oil and the other energies with the oil price, extremely volatile, reflecting the trial and error adjustment of the market share left to the other energies. Such a context may explain the recent oil price surge but the analogy between the US oil situation at the time of the first shock and that existing today for the world outside Middle East suggest another possibility, that of a structural change with higher future oil prices. The authors examine these two possibilities, think that the oil price will reflect both as long as one or the other will not become proven, and conclude with a series of political recommendations. (authors)

  17. Pricing of new vaccines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Bruce Y; McGlone, Sarah M

    2010-08-01

    New vaccine pricing is a complicated process that could have substantial long-standing scientific, medical, and public health ramifications. Pricing can have a considerable impact on new vaccine adoption and, thereby, either culminate or thwart years of research and development and public health efforts. Typically, pricing strategy consists of the following ten components: 1. Conduct a target population analysis; 2. Map potential competitors and alternatives; 3. Construct a vaccine target product profile (TPP) and compare it to projected or actual TPPs of competing vaccines; 4. Quantify the incremental value of the new vaccine's characteristics; 5. Determine vaccine positioning in the marketplace; 6. Estimate the vaccine price-demand curve; 7. Calculate vaccine costs (including those of manufacturing, distribution, and research and development); 8. Account for various legal, regulatory, third party payer, and competitor factors; 9. Consider the overall product portfolio; 10. Set pricing objectives; 11. Select pricing and pricing structure. While the biomedical literature contains some studies that have addressed these components, there is still considerable room for more extensive evaluation of this important area.

  18. Prospects for oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stevens, P.

    1992-01-01

    The basic argument presented is that the oil price is set in an administrated market. The administration is undertaken by the controllers of excess capacity to produce crude oil. The extent to which the administrated price matches the market price is a function, first, of the strength and effectiveness of the market controller and, secondly, of the state of supply and demand and expectations in the market. Currently, the market is operating close to capacity, what limited excess capacity exists is located mainly in Saudi Arabia and the Saudi Arabians appear to be following a low price objective. While the Saudi Arabians pursue volume, the short term project, in the balance of a political upheaval, is that oil prices will remain below the $21 per barrel agreed in July 1990. There is a view that Saudi Arabia would take quick action to reverse a price collapse, but attention is drawn to previous miscalculations with respect to price collapse. Should political circumstances allow the return of Iraq to the oil market, then excess capacity within the Gulf members of OPEC will return and control will be much more difficult. (UK)

  19. Pricing of new vaccines

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGlone, Sarah M

    2010-01-01

    New vaccine pricing is a complicated process that could have substantial long-standing scientific, medical and public health ramifications. Pricing can have a considerable impact on new vaccine adoption and, thereby, either culminate or thwart years of research and development and public health efforts. Typically, pricing strategy consists of the following eleven components: (1) Conduct a target population analysis; (2) Map potential competitors and alternatives; (3) Construct a vaccine target product profile (TPP) and compare it to projected or actual TPPs of competing vaccines; (4) Quantify the incremental value of the new vaccine's characteristics; (5) Determine vaccine positioning in the marketplace; (6) Estimate the vaccine price-demand curve; (7) Calculate vaccine costs (including those of manufacturing, distribution, and research and development); (8) Account for various legal, regulatory, third party payer and competitor factors; (9) Consider the overall product portfolio; (10) Set pricing objectives; (11) Select pricing and pricing structure. While the biomedical literature contains some studies that have addressed these components, there is still considerable room for more extensive evaluation of this important area. PMID:20861678

  20. Prospects for oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caddy, P.

    1992-01-01

    It is argued that the wave in oil prices which occurred in 1991, although appearing to suggest price instability, in fact shows the opposite. Steady oscillation between a low price level that leads to new customers and a high price that encourages customers to switch to alternatives is a sign of a stable market. This relative stability was achieved against the background of the political upheaval in the USSR and Eastern Europe and its unpredictable consequences. Such political uncertainties to one side, the difficulties of assessing demand trends in the light of the imponderables of the state of the world economy and the weather are stressed. Despite these problems, the view is expressed that correct reading of signals up the supply chain by producers should ensure continued relative price stability. This is not to say that prices will stay exactly the same, just that they will be bound within a trading range set by anticipated consumer and producer responses to the fluctuating prices. (UK)

  1. Keynes, population, and equity prices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarascio, V J

    1985-01-01

    Keynes in 1937 examined the phenomenon of the Great Depression from a longrun perspective in contradiction to the "General Theory," where the focus was on the shortrun. "Some Economic Consequences of a Declining Population," Keynes' article, reveals the context in which the "General Theory" was written. In the "General Theory," the focus is on short-term fluctuations, i.e., business cycles, but Keynes fails to provide any theoretical explanation as to why the depression of the 1930s was so severe and intractable. In the 1937 article, the depression is seen as the result of the combined effects of a decline in longrun growth due to population growth decline and a shortrun cyclical decline, together producing severe economic consequences. What is important for the purposes of this discussion is the implication, within the context of the 1937 article, that not only was the stock market crash of 1929 related to population change (with its accompanying collapse in expectations) but that, in general, changes in the rate of growth of population are accompanied by stock price movements in the same direction. The remainder of the discussion is devoted to a simple empirical test of this relationship. The data used are population size (POP), defined as the total residential population in the US from 1870-1979, and the Standard and Poor 500 Stock index (SP) for the corresponding 109-year period. In addition, a 3rd series was constructed, a price deflated Standard and Poor index (RSP) with a base period of 1870, to account for possible inflationary distortion of the index. The empirical results do not invalidate the hypothesis that population growth rates affect equity markets. In fact, there seems to be strong evidence that they are related in a manner suggestive of Keynes' intutition, namely, that the stock market crash of 1929 was due to factors more fundamental than those often perceived from a shortrun perspective. According to Keynes (1937), population is the most

  2. Asset Pricing - A Brief Review

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Minqiang

    2010-01-01

    I first introduce the early-stage and modern classical asset pricing and portfolio theories. These include: the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), the arbitrage pricing theory (APT), the consumption capital asset pricing model (CCAPM), the intertemporal capital asset pricing model (ICAPM), and some other important modern concepts and techniques. Finally, I discuss the most recent development during the last decade and the outlook in the field of asset pricing.

  3. Rise of energy price, rise of agricultural prices: what medium- and long-term relations and implications?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voituriez, T.

    2009-01-01

    We review in this study the different factors which have been presented by the scientific community as possible explanations of the sudden upsurge in commodity prices between 2006 and 2008. We examine whether scientific evidence validates any causal relationship, and particularly emphasize the role of explanatory variables underpinning the co-movement of energy and food price rises. Our aim is to provide an up-to-date understanding of food and energy market relationships, so as to better anticipate the possible changes in the evolution of prices in the coming years. (author)

  4. Price Competition on Graphs

    OpenAIRE

    Adriaan R. Soetevent

    2010-01-01

    This paper extends Hotelling's model of price competition with quadratic transportation costs from a line to graphs. I propose an algorithm to calculate firm-level demand for any given graph, conditional on prices and firm locations. One feature of graph models of price competition is that spatial discontinuities in firm-level demand may occur. I show that the existence result of D'Aspremont et al. (1979) does not extend to simple star graphs. I conjecture that this non-existence result holds...

  5. Price Competition on Graphs

    OpenAIRE

    Pim Heijnen; Adriaan Soetevent

    2014-01-01

    This paper extends Hotelling's model of price competition with quadratic transportation costs from a line to graphs. We derive an algorithm to calculate firm-level demand for any given graph, conditional on prices and firm locations. These graph models of price competition may lead to spatial discontinuities in firm-level demand. We show that the existence result of D'Aspremont et al. (1979) does not extend to simple star graphs and conjecture that this non-existence result holds more general...

  6. House Prices and Taxes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gjedsted Nielsen, Mads

    This paper is the first to consider a large scale natural experiment to estimate the effect of taxes on house prices. We find that a 1 percentage-point increase in income tax rates lead to a drop in house prices of at most 2.2%. This corresponds to a tax capitalization for the average household...... capitalization from earlier studies. Furthermore, we find no effect of property taxes on house prices. We attribute this to the low levels of Danish municipal property tax rates compared to income tax rates....

  7. Oil price fluctuations and Its effect on GDP growth

    OpenAIRE

    Gonzalez , Aaron; Nabiyev, Sherzod

    2009-01-01

    During the year of 2008, the world has experienced historically high oil prices reaching an all time high of 147 USD per barrel in midsummer. The extreme volatility of what is consider the number one source of energy reopened discussions about energy sustainability and the plausible effects of an oil shock in the global economy.   How reliable oil price is as an economic variable predicting fluctuations in GDP growth remains controversial. Several models have been developed by scholars target...

  8. On the link between oil and commodity prices: a panel VAR approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bremond, Vincent; Hache, Emmanuel; Joets, Marc

    2013-12-01

    The aim of this paper is to study the relationships between the price of oil and a large dataset of commodity prices, relying on panel data settings. Using second generation panel co-integration tests, our findings show that the WTI and commodity prices are not linked in the long term. Nevertheless, considering our results in causality tests, we show that short-run relations exist, mainly from the price of crude oil to commodity prices. We thus implement a panel VAR estimation with an impulse response function analysis. Two main conclusions emerge: (i) fast co-movements are highlighted, while (ii) market efficiency is emphasized. (authors)

  9. Modelling world gold prices and USD foreign exchange relationship using multivariate GARCH model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ping, Pung Yean; Ahmad, Maizah Hura Binti

    2014-12-01

    World gold price is a popular investment commodity. The series have often been modeled using univariate models. The objective of this paper is to show that there is a co-movement between gold price and USD foreign exchange rate. Using the effect of the USD foreign exchange rate on the gold price, a model that can be used to forecast future gold prices is developed. For this purpose, the current paper proposes a multivariate GARCH (Bivariate GARCH) model. Using daily prices of both series from 01.01.2000 to 05.05.2014, a causal relation between the two series understudied are found and a bivariate GARCH model is produced.

  10. Functional Movement Disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Publications Patient Organizations International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH) See all related organizations Publications Order NINDS Publications Definition Psychogenic movement is an unwanted muscle movement such ...

  11. ASPECTS OF REGIONAL COMPETITIVENESS THROUGH DYNAMIC PRICES OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela\tENACHESCU

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents aspects regarding the dynamics of prices of petroleum products: gasoline and diesel in Romania in the period 2003(2007-2014. Both focus on relationship-price raw material and finished product by the impact of market prices. Given that the price of fuel is a key factor in economic development but also in the living of population, this paper has proposed to analyze some aspects of the dynamics of prices of petroleum products in correlation with commodity prices in a competitive market in 2003 -2014. In the analized period, price of oil barrel has a dynamics substantially influenced by the global political turbulences but also by lower oil demand due to consumption reduction, especially lately. Increases and decreases were abrupt and unpredictable in the early years of the first decade of the XXI century. Political crises in the Middle East, the economic crisis started in 2007 and especially the crisis in Ukraine and policies adopted by the EU and the US have led to extremely large fluctuations in oil prices from one period to another . This dynamic will only cover the price of petroleum products namely gazoline and diesel for vehicles.

  12. Edgeworth Price Cycles, Cost-Based Pricing, and Sticky Pricing in Retail Gasoline Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Michael D. Noel

    2007-01-01

    This paper examines dynamic pricing behavior in retail gasoline markets for 19 Canadian cities over 574 weeks. I find three distinct retail pricing patterns: 1. cost-based pricing, 2. sticky pricing, and 3. steep, asymmetric retail price cycles that, while seldom documented empirically, resemble those of Maskin & Tirole[1988]. Using a Markov switching regression, I estimate the prevalence of patterns and the structural characteristics of the cycles. Retail price cycles prevail in over 40% of ...

  13. To consume or not. How oil prices affect the comovement of consumption and aggregate wealth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Odusami, Babatunde Olatunji

    2010-01-01

    This paper provides insight into how oil price movements affect the consumption choices of U.S. households through the wealth channel. Lettau and Ludvigson (2001) show that while consumption, asset wealth, and labor income share a common long-term trend; they substantially deviate from one another in the short run. In this paper, I show that these transitory deviations can be explained by fluctuations in the price of crude oil. Linear and threshold multivariate autoregressive models are used to measure the oil price effect. Oil price effect on the consumption to aggregate wealth ratio is robust to monetary policy effect, sub-period effect, and econometric specifications of oil price effect. Generally speaking, higher (lower) oil price will lead to a decrease (increase) in the proportion of aggregate wealth consumed. In addition, the magnitude of the oil price effect is asymmetric and sub-period dependent. Oil price effect was higher before the 1980's than in succeeding periods. (author)

  14. Uranium price reporting systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-09-01

    This report describes the systems for uranium price reporting currently available to the uranium industry. The report restricts itself to prices for U 3 O 8 natural uranium concentrates. Most purchases of natural uranium by utilities, and sales by producers, are conducted in this form. The bulk of uranium in electricity generation is enriched before use, and is converted to uranium hexafluoride, UF 6 , prior to enrichment. Some uranium is traded as UF 6 or as enriched uranium, particularly in the 'secondary' market. Prices for UF 6 and enriched uranium are not considered directly in this report. However, where transactions in UF 6 influence the reported price of U 3 O 8 this influence is taken into account. Unless otherwise indicated, the terms uranium and natural uranium used here refer exclusively to U 3 O 8 . (author)

  15. AKRO: Standard Prices

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Standard prices are generated for cost recovery programs in the Individual Fishing Quota (IFQ) halibut and sablefish, BSAI Rationalized crab, and Central Gulf of...

  16. Price of military uranium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klimenko, A.V.

    1998-01-01

    The theoretical results about optimum strategy of use of military uranium confirmed by systems approach accounts are received. The numerical value of the system approach price of the highly enriched military uranium also is given

  17. Pricing and Fee Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Richard B.

    1986-01-01

    Defines key terms and discusses things to consider when setting fees for a continuing education program. These include (1) the organization's philosophy and mission, (2) certain key variables, (3) pricing strategy options, and (4) the test of reasonableness. (CH)

  18. The price of pollution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bleijenberg, A.N.; Davidson, M.D.; Wit, R.

    1998-06-01

    The market does not create a price for environmental pollution for the simple reason that there is no market for the environment. What can be done is to calculate shadow prices for environmental pollution, which is achieved by calculating the price that would arise if there would be a market for the environment. In applying this method, it generally proves to be necessary to base calculations on government environmental targets. Using available research data, the method is used to calculate shadow prices for a number of key pollutants. The present report is based on the CE studies 'Schaduwprijzen Prioriterings Methodiek (SPM)' (1997), commissioned by ICI Holland BV, and 'De prijs van Milieuvervuiling' (1997), commissioned by KNP BT Packaging

  19. Variable Pricing Feasibility Assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2004-01-01

    ...) and Willard Bishop Consulting (Barrington, IL) to evaluate the practicality of using a variable pricing system within DeCA to maintain an average of 30 percent customer savings and lower appropriated fund costs...

  20. Market News Price Dataset

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Real-time price data collected by the Boston Market News Reporter. The NOAA Fisheries' "Fishery Market News" began operations in New York City on February 14, 1938....

  1. Essays on Derivatives Pricing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kokholm, Thomas

    . With the existence of a liquid market for derivatives with variance as underlying, such as VIX options, VIX futures and a well-developed over-the-counter market for options on variance swaps, it is important to consider models that are able to fit these markets while consistently pricing vanilla options...... financial models, and most importantly, to be aware of their limitations. Following that belief, this thesis consists of three independent and self-contained papers, all dealing with topics in derivatives pricing. The first paper considers the pricing of traffic light options, which are appropriate...... the market for multivariate credit instruments, we take a step back and focus on single-name default modeling and introduce two new model classes for modeling of the default time of a company. Finally, in the third paper we propose a consistent pricing model for index and volatility derivatives...

  2. Financial news predicts stock market volatility better than close price

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Atkins

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The behaviour of time series data from financial markets is influenced by a rich mixture of quantitative information from the dynamics of the system, captured in its past behaviour, and qualitative information about the underlying fundamentals arriving via various forms of news feeds. Pattern recognition of financial data using an effective combination of these two types of information is of much interest nowadays, and is addressed in several academic disciplines as well as by practitioners. Recent literature has focused much effort on the use of news-derived information to predict the direction of movement of a stock, i.e. posed as a classification problem, or the precise value of a future asset price, i.e. posed as a regression problem. Here, we show that information extracted from news sources is better at predicting the direction of underlying asset volatility movement, or its second order statistics, rather than its direction of price movement. We show empirical results by constructing machine learning models of Latent Dirichlet Allocation to represent information from news feeds, and simple naïve Bayes classifiers to predict the direction of movements. Empirical results show that the average directional prediction accuracy for volatility, on arrival of new information, is 56%, while that of the asset close price is no better than random at 49%. We evaluate these results using a range of stocks and stock indices in the US market, using a reliable news source as input. We conclude that volatility movements are more predictable than asset price movements when using financial news as machine learning input, and hence could potentially be exploited in pricing derivatives contracts via quantifying volatility. Keywords: Machine learning, Natural language processing, Volatility forecasting, Technical analysis, Computational finance

  3. Jumps and stochastic volatility in oil prices: Time series evidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larsson, Karl; Nossman, Marcus

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we examine the empirical performance of affine jump diffusion models with stochastic volatility in a time series study of crude oil prices. We compare four different models and estimate them using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. The support for a stochastic volatility model including jumps in both prices and volatility is strong and the model clearly outperforms the others in terms of a superior fit to data. Our estimation method allows us to obtain a detailed study of oil prices during two periods of extreme market stress included in our sample; the Gulf war and the recent financial crisis. We also address the economic significance of model choice in two option pricing applications. The implied volatilities generated by the different estimated models are compared and we price a real option to develop an oil field. Our findings indicate that model choice can have a material effect on the option values.

  4. Midsouth Pulpwood Prices, 1991

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrick E. Miller

    1993-01-01

    The average delivered price for a cord of Midsouth roundwood in 1991 was $56.39, an increase of 6.5 percent since 1990. Softwood roundwood averaged $58.24 and hardwoods, $50.48 per standard cord, up 2.8 and 7.9 percent, respectively. Chipped residue prices were $26.52 for softwood and $21.0l for hardwood per green ton. The expenditure for wood fiber in the Midsouth...

  5. Energy price risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evans, J.W.G.

    1998-01-01

    While long term, fixed price contracts for fuel procurement and export of excess power may lock in the economics of a CHP plant, these do not necessarily give the best pricing opportunities that may exist during the life of those contracts. A more prudent approach may be to vary the length of the contracts and markets are now developing in gas and electricity to assist in the management of such a portfolio. (Author)

  6. New product pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilkinson, V.K.

    1981-01-01

    One of the most uncertain elements in budget planning is estimating production costs of items that have heretofore only been produced in prototype configurations and quantities. This paper examines the design and development of a mathematical model which computes appropriate prices for new and unique products. The resulting model offers a producer a fair return on his investment and the consumer a fair purchase price

  7. Corporate debt pricing I.

    OpenAIRE

    Ilya, Gikhman

    2007-01-01

    In this article we discuss fundamentals of the debt securities pricing. We begin with a generalization of the present value concept. Though the present value is the base valuation method in the modern finance we will illustrate that this concept does not sufficiently accurate in producing instrument pricing. The incompleteness of the unique present value approach stems from variability of the interest rates. Admitting variability of the interest rates we define two present values one for buye...

  8. Oil price volatility and the asymmetric response of gasoline prices to oil price increases and decreases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radchenko, S.

    2005-01-01

    This paper analyzes the effect of volatility in oil prices on the degree of asymmetry in the response of gasoline prices to oil price increases and decreases. Several time series measures of the asymmetry between the responses of gasoline prices to oil price increases and decreases and several measures of the oil price volatility are constructed. In all models, the degree of asymmetry in gasoline prices declines with an increase in oil price volatility. The results support the oligopolistic coordination theory as a likely explanation of the observed asymmetry and are not consistent with the standard search theory and the search theory with Bayesian updating. (author)

  9. Reflections on the reporting of the uranium spot price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Novak, E.D.

    1984-01-01

    Reporting of the Spot Uranium Price does not represent the uranium market, but actually represents the extremities of a market. The Spot Prices tend to cause instabilities in the market if relied upon too heavily and an excessive use will actually support a questionable transition from a fuel supply industry to a commodities industry. Utility fuel buyers and uranium sellers must be careful how they use the Spot Price, or they will continue to create an unstable supply/demand relationship. But, since we all rely upon statistics for the illusion of independence, we may get the commodities market, assisted along by the information people, whether we want it or not

  10. Price Recall, Bertrand Paradox and Price Dispersion With Elastic Demand

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carvalho, M.

    2009-01-01

    This paper studies the consequence of an imprecise recall of the price by the consumers in the Bertrand price competition model for a homogeneous good. It is shown that firms can exploit this weakness and charge prices above the competitive price. This markup increases for rougher recall of the

  11. Why do stumpage prices increase more than lumber prices?

    Science.gov (United States)

    William G. Luppold; John E. Baumgras; John E. Baumgras

    1998-01-01

    Every sawmiller who has been in business more than 5 years realizes that hardwood stumpage prices tend to increase faster than lumber prices, decreasing the margin between these two prices. Although increases in stumpage versus lumber prices are readily apparent, the reason for the decrease in the margin is not. Recent research findings indicate that the stumpage/...

  12. Analyzing the effects of past prices on reference price formation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.D. van Oest (Rutger); R. Paap (Richard)

    2004-01-01

    textabstractWe propose a new reference price framework for brand choice. In this framework, we employ a Markov-switching process with an absorbing state to model unobserved price recall of households. Reference prices result from the prices households are able to remember. Our model can be used to

  13. Higher Education Prices and Price Indexes. 1976 Supplement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halstead, Kent D.

    The 1976 supplement presents higher education price index data for fiscal years 1971 through 1976. The basic study, "Higher Education Prices and Price Indexes" (ED 123 996) presents complete descriptions of the indexes together with index values and price data for fiscal years 1961 through 1974. Indexes are presented for research and development,…

  14. Forecasting Day-Ahead Electricity Prices : Utilizing Hourly Prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E. Raviv (Eran); K.E. Bouwman (Kees); D.J.C. van Dijk (Dick)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractThe daily average price of electricity represents the price of electricity to be delivered over the full next day and serves as a key reference price in the electricity market. It is an aggregate that equals the average of hourly prices for delivery during each of the 24 individual

  15. Market place movements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1996-01-01

    Historical financial data is provided for the uranium market in graphical and tabular form. Data include uranium spot price range, spot conversion price range, and seperative work units price range. Additional spot market information provided is natural uranium by buyers and sellers. Medium- and long-term data includes average natural uranium prices, and natural uranium market by buyers and sellers. Information on US contracted supply and demand and uranium production in Australia, Canada, and the US is given

  16. Estimating the commodity market price of risk for energy prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kolos, Sergey P.; Ronn, Ehud I.

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to estimate the ''market price of risk'' (MPR) for energy commodities, the ratio of expected return to standard deviation. The MPR sign determines whether energy forward prices are upward- or downward-biased predictors of expected spot prices. We estimate MPRs using spot and futures prices, while accounting for the Samuelson effect. We find long-term MPRs generally positive and short-term negative, consistent with positive energy betas and hedging, respectively. In spot electricity markets, MPRs in Day-Ahead Prices agree with short-dated futures. Our results relate risk premia to informed hedging decisions, and futures prices to forecast/expected prices. (author)

  17. Output Price Risk, Material Input Price Risk, and Price Margins: Evidence from the US Catfish Industry.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Bouras

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Aim/purpose - To develop a conceptual model for analyzing the impact of output price risk and material input price risk on price margins. Design/methodology/approach - To analyze the combined effect of output price risk and material input risk on price margins, we use a series of comparative static analyses, GARCH models, and data ranging from 1990/01 to 2012/12. Findings - The theoretical results indicate that the impact of output price risk and the impact of material input price risk on price margins are ambiguous and, to a great extent, hinge on the correlation between output price and material input price. The empirical results show that whole frozen catfish price risk and live catfish price risk negatively affect the price margin for frozen catfish. The empirical results, however, indicate that the risk of the price of live catfish affects markedly the price margin for frozen whole catfish in contrast to the impact of the risk of the price of frozen whole catfish. Research implications/limitations - The empirical results have significant implications for managerial decision-making especially when crafting strategies for improving price margins. Accordingly, in order to beef up the price margin for frozen whole catfish, catfish processors may consider engaging in vertical integration. This paper has some limitations: first, it assumes that firms operate in competitive markets; second, it assumes that firms produce and sell a single product. Originality/value/contribution - Unlike earlier studies that focused solely on the effect of output price risk on price margins, this paper analyzes theoretically and empirically the impact of output price risk and material input price risk on price margins.

  18. Delivered Pricing, FOB Pricing, and Collusion in Spatial Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Maria Paz Espinosa

    1992-01-01

    This article examines price discrimination and collusion in spatial markets. The problem is analyzed in the context of a repeated duopoly game. I conclude that the prevailing pricing systems depend on the structural elements of the market. Delivered pricing systems emerge in equilibrium in highly monopolistic and highly competitive industries, while FOB is used in intermediate market structures. The fact driving this result is that delivered pricing policies allow spatial price discrimination...

  19. Forecasting Day-Ahead Electricity Prices: Utilizing Hourly Prices

    OpenAIRE

    Raviv, Eran; Bouwman, Kees E.; van Dijk, Dick

    2013-01-01

    This discussion paper led to a publication in 'Energy Economics' , 2015, 50, 227-239. The daily average price of electricity represents the price of electricity to be delivered over the full next day and serves as a key reference price in the electricity market. It is an aggregate that equals the average of hourly prices for delivery during each of the 24 individual hours. This paper demonstrates that the disaggregated hourly prices contain useful predictive information for the daily average ...

  20. Energy markets and price relations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergendahl, P.A.

    1986-10-01

    The aim of the report is to elucidate the way and extent of the dependence of the price of different energy species of one another and particularly of crude oil prices. Oil, coal and natural gas can substitute each other at many applications. The prices are dependent on mining, processing and transporting. Forecasting of prices and future trends are discussed

  1. Legal-Economic Barriers To Price Transfers in Food Supply Chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bremmers, H.J.; Meulen, van der B.M.J.; Sredojevic, Z.; Wijnands, J.H.M.

    2012-01-01

    Recent price movements have put food supply chains under pressure. On the one side, upward price tendencies on commodity markets result in higher costs to processing firms. On the other side, these firms are confronted with a strong retail sector that is able to prevent compensation to protect

  2. On the Information in the Interest Rate Term Structure and Option Prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, F.; Driessen, J.; Pelsser, A.

    2004-01-01

    We examine whether the information in cap and swaption prices is consistent with realized movements of the interest rate term structure. To extract an option-implied interest rate covariance matrix from cap and swaption prices, we use Libor market models as a modelling framework. We propose a

  3. Customer response to day-ahead market hourly pricing: Choices and performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hopper, Nicole; Goldman, Charles; Bharvirkar, Ranjit; Neenan, Bernie

    2006-01-01

    Real-time pricing (RTP) has been advocated to address extreme price volatility and market power in electricity markets. This study of Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation's largest customers analyzes their choices and performance in response to day-ahead, default-service RTP. Overall price response is modest: 119 customers are estimated to reduce their peak demand by about 10% at high prices. Manufacturing customers are most responsive with a price elasticity of 0.16, followed by government/education customers (0.11), while commercial/retail, healthcare and public works customers are, at present, relatively unresponsive. Within market segments, individual customer response varies significantly. (author)

  4. THE PROBLEMS OF TRANSFER PRICING

    OpenAIRE

    Tursunova Nargiza

    2015-01-01

    Each item has a price, but not every company is able to independently set the price at which it wants to sell its goods. Firms need to have a streamlined method of setting prices for their goods, and their financial condition depends on it. When choosing a method of pricing, there must be considered and internal and external constraints. The paper discusses the stages of formation of prices in a continuous process of pricing, as well as methods of pricing, their advantages and disadvantages. ...

  5. Extremely Preterm Birth

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Events Advocacy For Patients About ACOG Extremely Preterm Birth Home For Patients Search FAQs Extremely Preterm Birth ... Spanish FAQ173, June 2016 PDF Format Extremely Preterm Birth Pregnancy When is a baby considered “preterm” or “ ...

  6. Quantity precommitment and price matching

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tumennasan, Norovsambuu

    We revisit the question of whether price matching is anti-competitive in a capacity constrained duopoly setting. We show that the effect of price matching depends on capacity. Specifically, price matching has no effect when capacity is relatively low, but it benefits the firms when capacity...... is relatively high. Interestingly, when capacity is in an intermediate range, price matching benefits only the small firm but does not affect the large firm in any way. Therefore, one has to consider capacity seriously when evaluating if price matching is anti-competitive. If the firms choose their capacities...... simultaneously before pricing decisions, then the effect of price matching is either pro-competitive or ambiguous. We show that if the cost of capacity is high, then price matching can only (weakly) decrease the market price. On the other hand, if the cost of capacity is low, then the effect of price matching...

  7. Linepack storage valuation under price uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arvesen, Ø.; Medbø, V.; Fleten, S.-E.; Tomasgard, A.; Westgaard, S.

    2013-01-01

    Natural gas flows in pipelines as a consequence of the pressure difference at the inlet and outlet. Adjusting these pressures makes it possible to inject natural gas at one rate and withdraw at a different rate, hence using the pipeline as storage as well as transport. We study the value of using the so called pipeline linepack as a short-term gas storage and how this functionality may offset the discrepancy between the low flexibility in take-or-pay contracts and the high inherent flexibility of a gas-fired power plant. To value the storage option, we consider a cycling power plant facing volatile power prices while purchasing gas on a take-or-pay contract. We estimate a Markov regime-switching model for power prices and a mean reverting jump diffusion model for gas prices. Applying Least Squares Monte Carlo simulation to the operation of the linepack storage, we find that the storage option indeed has significant value for the plant, enabling it to better exploit the sometimes extreme price fluctuations. Finally, we show how power price volatility and jump frequency are the main value drivers, and that the size of the storage increases the value up to a point where no additional flexibility is used. - Highlights: ► Linepack, i.e., storage of natural gas en route in long pipelines, is valued for the first time. ► We find significant storage value for a North Sea case and a German gas-fired power plant. ► Power and natural gas prices are modelled realistically, as related stochastic processes with mean reversion and spikes. ► Storage operation is valued under uncertainty yielding close to exact values, without heuristics

  8. Developments in Global Food Prices

    OpenAIRE

    Vanessa Rayner; Emily Laing; Jamie Hall

    2011-01-01

    Global food prices have increased significantly since the early 2000s, reversing the long-run trend decline in relative food prices over previous decades. A range of supply disruptions in key food-producing countries have contributed to higher food prices, along with strong demand from developing countries as per capita incomes rise and consumption patterns change. Rising commodity prices are leading to higher headline consumer price inflation in many countries though, at this stage, core mea...

  9. Rational Asset Pricing Bubbles Revisited

    OpenAIRE

    Jan Werner

    2012-01-01

    Price bubble arises when the price of an asset exceeds the asset's fundamental value, that is, the present value of future dividend payments. The important result of Santos and Woodford (1997) says that price bubbles cannot exist in equilibrium in the standard dynamic asset pricing model with rational agents as long as assets are in strictly positive supply and the present value of total future resources is finite. This paper explores the possibility of asset price bubbles when either one of ...

  10. Aim High or Go Low? Pricing Strategies and Enrollment Effects when the Net Price Elasticity Varies with Need and Ability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curs, Bradley R.; Singell, Larry D., Jr.

    2010-01-01

    Detailed data on individual applicants to a large public university are used to demonstrate that net price responsiveness decreases with need and ability. Enrollment effects are simulated and show a movement towards a high tuition/high aid (low tuition/low aid) policy significantly lowers (raises) tuition revenue with a modest increase (decrease)…

  11. "Photographing money" task pricing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Zhongxiang

    2018-05-01

    "Photographing money" [1]is a self-service model under the mobile Internet. The task pricing is reasonable, related to the success of the commodity inspection. First of all, we analyzed the position of the mission and the membership, and introduced the factor of membership density, considering the influence of the number of members around the mission on the pricing. Multivariate regression of task location and membership density using MATLAB to establish the mathematical model of task pricing. At the same time, we can see from the life experience that membership reputation and the intensity of the task will also affect the pricing, and the data of the task success point is more reliable. Therefore, the successful point of the task is selected, and its reputation, task density, membership density and Multiple regression of task positions, according to which a nhew task pricing program. Finally, an objective evaluation is given of the advantages and disadvantages of the established model and solution method, and the improved method is pointed out.

  12. 7 CFR 1033.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1033.50 Section 1033.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued..., and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

  13. 7 CFR 1005.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1005.50 Section 1005.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued..., and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

  14. 7 CFR 1001.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1001.50 Section 1001.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued..., and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

  15. 7 CFR 1006.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1006.50 Section 1006.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued..., and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

  16. 7 CFR 1126.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1126.50 Section 1126.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued..., and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

  17. 7 CFR 1032.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1032.50 Section 1032.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued..., and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

  18. 7 CFR 1131.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1131.50 Section 1131.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued..., and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

  19. 7 CFR 1007.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1007.50 Section 1007.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued..., and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

  20. Covered Interest-Rate Parity Revisited: an Extreme Value Copula Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikel Ugando-Peñate

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available This article studied the covered interest-rate parity (CIP condition under extreme market movements using extreme value theory and extreme value copulas to characterize dependence between extreme interest rate differentials and forward premium. The empirical analysis for the CIP between interest rates for the US dollar and the British pound indicates that there is strong co-movement between interest rate differentials and forward premium at different maturities and in both upper and lower tails. This conclusion would support the existence of the CIP condition under extreme market movements.

  1. Price smarter on the Net.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, W; Marn, M; Zawada, C

    2001-02-01

    Companies generally have set prices on the Internet in two ways. Many start-ups have offered untenably low prices in a rush to capture first-mover advantage. Many incumbents have simply charged the same prices on-line as they do off-line. Either way, companies are missing a big opportunity. The fundamental value of the Internet lies not in lowering prices or making them consistent but in optimizing them. After all, if it's easy for customers to compare prices on the Internet, it's also easy for companies to track customers' behavior and adjust prices accordingly. The Net lets companies optimize prices in three ways. First, it lets them set and announce prices with greater precision. Different prices can be tested easily, and customers' responses can be collected instantly. Companies can set the most profitable prices, and they can tap into previously hidden customer demand. Second, because it's so easy to change prices on the Internet, companies can adjust prices in response to even small fluctuations in market conditions, customer demand, or competitors' behavior. Third, companies can use the clickstream data and purchase histories that it collects through the Internet to segment customers quickly. Then it can offer segment-specific prices or promotions immediately. By taking full advantage of the unique possibilities afforded by the Internet to set prices with precision, adapt to changing circumstances quickly, and segment customers accurately, companies can get their pricing right. It's one of the ultimate drivers of e-business success.

  2. Time-varying convergence in European electricity spot markets and their association with carbon and fuel prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menezes, Lilian M. de; Houllier, Melanie A.; Tamvakis, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Long-run dynamics of electricity prices are expected to reflect fuel price developments, since fuels generally account for a large share in the cost of generation. As an integrated European market for electricity develops, wholesale electricity prices should be converging as a result of market coupling and increased interconnectivity. Electricity mixes are also changing, spurred by a drive to significantly increase the share of renewables. Consequently, the electricity wholesale price dynamics are evolving, and the fuel–electricity price nexus that has been described in the literature is likely to reflect this evolution. This study investigates associations between spot prices from the British, French and Nordpool markets with those in connected electricity markets and fuel input prices, from December 2005 to October 2013. In order to assess the time-varying dynamics of electricity spot price series, localized autocorrelation functions are used. Electricity spot prices in the three markets are found to have stationary and non-stationary periods. When a trend in spot prices is observed, it is likely to reflect the trend in fuel prices. Cointegration analysis is then used to assess co-movement between electricity spot prices and fuel inputs to generation. The results show that British electricity spot prices are associated with fuel prices and not with price developments in connected markets, while the opposite is observed in the French and Nordpool day-ahead markets. - Highlights: • Electricity market integration policies may have altered EU spot electricity prices. • LACF is used to assess the changing nature of electricity spot prices. • EU electricity spot prices show both stationary and non-stationary periods. • Carbon and fuel prices have greater impact on British spot prices. • In continental Europe, electricity prices have decoupled from fuel prices.

  3. List prices vs. bargain prices: which solution to estimate consumer price indices?

    OpenAIRE

    Carlo De Gregorio

    2010-01-01

    Alternative approaches to CPI surveys are here evaluated, in markets where final prices are based on some sort of price listing. Three types of surveys are compared: local surveys (LOC), with small samples and a local price collection; list price surveys (LIS), with huge samples and centralised collection; mixed surveys (MXD), in which LOC and LIS are jointly used. Based on a multiplicative pricing model, some conditions are derived to establish the relative efficiency of these approaches. Th...

  4. Logistics: Price Rises Incurred by High Oil Price

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Lai Zhihui

    2011-01-01

    @@ "When the oil price grows by 100%, the logistic indus-try will see a price growth of 40%, while the logistics in-dustry a price rise of 35%, which means every price increase of 5% in the oil price will bring along that of 2% in this industry." said Liu Zongsheng, General Manager of Itochu Logistics Co., Ltd., on the seminar "Focusing on the eco-nomic consequences of raising oil price, interest rate and deposit reserve ratio", which was held recently.

  5. Pricing Volatility Referenced Assets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alan De Genaro Dario

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Volatility swaps are contingent claims on future realized volatility. Variance swaps are similar instruments on future realized variance, the square of future realized volatility. Unlike a plain vanilla option, whose volatility exposure is contaminated by its asset price dependence, volatility and variance swaps provide a pure exposure to volatility alone. This article discusses the risk-neutral valuation of volatility and variance swaps based on the framework outlined in the Heston (1993 stochastic volatility model. Additionally, the Heston (1993 model is calibrated for foreign currency options traded at BMF and its parameters are used to price swaps on volatility and variance of the BRL / USD exchange rate.

  6. Wireless network pricing

    CERN Document Server

    Huang, Jianwei

    2013-01-01

    Today's wireless communications and networking practices are tightly coupled with economic considerations, to the extent that it is almost impossible to make a sound technology choice without understanding the corresponding economic implications. This book aims at providing a foundational introduction on how microeconomics, and pricing theory in particular, can help us to understand and build better wireless networks. The book can be used as lecture notes for a course in the field of network economics, or a reference book for wireless engineers and applied economists to understand how pricing

  7. Gas Price Formation, Structure and Dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davoust, R.

    2008-07-01

    of the LNG supply chain implies rising LNG international arbitrage, cargoes being diverted to the most profitable destinations. Co-movements are then expected between regional quotes, leading to the potential emergence of a world gas market with a single price. (author)

  8. Gas Price Formation, Structure and Dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davoust, R.

    2008-01-01

    the LNG supply chain implies rising LNG international arbitrage, cargoes being diverted to the most profitable destinations. Co-movements are then expected between regional quotes, leading to the potential emergence of a world gas market with a single price. (author)

  9. Price knowledge during grocery shopping

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Birger Boutrup; Grunert, Klaus G

    2014-01-01

    applying a multi-point, multi-measure approach, consumers appear to know more aboutprices than suggested by past research. Determinants of price knowledge are also examined and the results indicate that price knowledge buildsup not only because of active search but also due to accidental exposure to prices......Past research on consumer price knowledge has varied considerably partly due to differences in how and when price knowledge is measured.This paper applies a multi-point, multi-measure approach to reconcile differences in past price knowledge research by examining systematicrelationships between...... time of measurement and type of measures applied. Examination of consumer price knowledge before, during, and afterstore visit sheds light on what is measured at the individual points in time: episodic price knowledge and/or reference prices? With a between-subjects design interviewing 1...

  10. Does the Credible Fiscal Policy Support the Prices Stabilization?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuncoro Haryo

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims at analyzing the co-movement between fiscal policy and monetary policy rules in the context of price stabilization. More specifically, we observe the potential impact of fiscal policy credibility on the price stabilization in the inflation targeting framework. Motivated by the fact that empirical studies concerning this aspect are still limited, we take the case of Indonesia over the period 2001-2013. Based on the quarterly data analysis, we found that the impact of credibility typically depends on characteristics of fiscal rules commitment. On one hand, the credibility of debt rule reduces the inflation rate. In contrast, the incredible deficit rule policy does not have any impact on the inflation rate and therefore does not support to inflation targeting. Given those results, we conclude that credibility matters in stabilizing price levels. Accordingly, those findings suggest tightening coordination between monetary and fiscal policy to maintain fiscal sustainability in accordance with price stabilization policy

  11. Do financial investors affect the price of wheat?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniele Girardi

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available It is widely debated whether financial speculation was a significant force behind recent food price fluctuations. As a matter of fact, during the 2000s agricultural commodity derivatives markets were flooded by a ‘wall of money’ coming from financial investors. In agricultural exchanges, the greatest part of this huge financial inflow came from index traders, i.e. financial actors that follow a passive strategy of tracking a commodity index. In this article I present new empirical evidence that supports the hypothesis that financial investments have affected wheat price dynamics in recent years. In particular, I focus on Hard Red Winter (HRW wheat. Since 2007 HRW wheat price fluctuations have been positively related to US stock market returns and oil price movements. These correlations appear to be determined by commodity index traders, since both these relationships proved to be spurious, with the most tracked commodity index as the confounding variable.

  12. NEURAL NETWORKS FOR STOCK MARKET OPTION PRICING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergey A. Sannikov

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The use of neural networks for non-linear models helps to understand where linear model drawbacks, coused by their specification, reveal themselves. This paper attempts to find this out. The objective of research is to determine the meaning of “option prices calculation using neural networks”. Materials and Methods: We use two kinds of variables: endogenous (variables included in the model of neural network and variables affecting on the model (permanent disturbance. Results: All data are divided into 3 sets: learning, affirming and testing. All selected variables are normalised from 0 to 1. Extreme values of income were shortcut. Discussion and Conclusions: Using the 33-14-1 neural network with direct links we obtained two sets of forecasts. Optimal criteria of strategies in stock markets’ option pricing were developed.

  13. Refining prices and margins in 1998

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Favennec, J.P.; Baudoin, C.

    1999-01-01

    Despite a business environment that was globally mediocre due primarily to the Asian crisis and to a mild winter in the northern hemisphere, the signs of improvement noted in the refining activity in 1996 were borne out in 1997. But the situation is not yet satisfactory in this sector: the low return on invested capital and the financing of environmental protection expenditure are giving cause for concern. In 1998, the drop in crude oil prices and the concomitant fall in petroleum product prices was ultimately rather favorable to margins. Two elements tended to put a damper on this relative optimism. First of all, margins continue to be extremely volatile and, secondly, the worsening of the economic and financial crisis observed during the summer made for a sharp decline in margins in all geographic regions, especially Asia

  14. Beyond Hate: Countering Violent Extremism from the White Power Movement

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-01

    perceived unfair treatment.144 The “second floor” is often indicative of dictatorships when an individual acts independently of the population, referred to...renewed his Klan involvement from childhood .504 Spence also explained the Klan is a family tradition, which makes it normal, perhaps even expected, with

  15. PRICE GENERATING PROCESS AND VOLATILITY IN NIGERIAN AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osaihiomwan Ojogho

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The literature on agricultural commodity price volatility in Nigeria has constantly reflected that an excessive price movement is harmful for both producers and consumers, particularly for those who are not able to cope with that new source of economic uncertainty. It has also raised an extensive debate on the main determinants behind the large agricultural commodity price swings observed in the last years without recourse for the price generating process. To narrow this gap, the study examined the price generating process and volatility in the Nigerian agricultural commodities market using secondary data for price series on meat, cereals, sugar, dairy and aggregate food for the period of January 1990 to February 2014. The data were analysed using the linear Gaussian State-Space (SS model. The results of the descriptive statistics showed that the coefficients of variation for cereals (39.88%, food (32.65% and dairy price (43.08% were respectively higher during the overall time period (January 1990 to February 2014 than during the first (January 1990 to January 2002 and second (February 2002 to February 2014 sub-time periods. The results of the inferential statistics showed that authoregressive moving average (ARMA model is the most selected Nigeria agricultural commodity price generating model for the time periods, that a unit increase in the past price state of cereals, dairy, sugar, meat and aggregate food would increase the future price of sugar, meat and aggregate food by N0.14, N0.28 and N0.15 respectively but decrease future price of cereals and dairy by about N1.00 and N0.21 respectively, and that the one-step ahead predicted value for the first out-ofsample period for cereals, meat, dairy and sugar price were 6317.86, 10.24 and 2.06 respectively. The Nigerian agricultural commodity prices have experienced high variability over the period, and such volatility, price-generating process and the determinants of the Nigerian food commodities

  16. The impact of renewable energies on EEX day-ahead electricity prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paraschiv, Florentina; Erni, David; Pietsch, Ralf

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we analyze the impact of renewable energies, wind and photovoltaic, on the formation of day-ahead electricity prices at EEX. We give an overview of the policy decisions concerning the promotion of renewable energy sources in Germany and discuss their consequences on day-ahead prices. An analysis of electricity spot prices reveals that the introduction of renewable energies enhances extreme price changes. In the frame of a dynamic fundamental model, we show that there has been a continuous electricity price adaption process to market fundamentals. Furthermore, the fundamental drivers of prices differ among hours with different load profiles. Our results imply that renewable energies decrease market spot prices and have implications on the traditional fuel mix for electricity production. However, the prices for the final consumers increased overall because they must pay in addition the feed-in tariffs for the promotion of renewable energy. - Highlights: • We analyze the impact of renewable energies on the day-ahead electricity prices at EEX. • We discuss the impact of renewables on day-ahead prices. • We show a continuous electricity price adaption process to market fundamentals. • Renewable energies decrease market spot prices and shift the merit order curve. • The prices for the final consumers however increased because of feed-in tariffs

  17. IS THE PRICE RIGHT? PRICING FOR LONG TERM PROFITABILITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Erika NYÁRÁDI

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The way how we choose our pricing strategy has a significant impact on company’s success. Nowadays companies more and more adopt a new way of thinking in pricing, namely pricing for a long term period in order to bring higher profitability, to build an efficient pricing strategy. Marketers have only recently begun to focus seriously on effective pricing. These companies are the so called progressive companies. They have begun doing more than just worrying about pricing. To increase profitability many are abandoning traditional reactive pricing procedures in favor of proactive pricing, making explicit corporate decisions to change their focus to growth in top-line sales to growth in profitability. The long-term implications of price strategies are still under-researched, and managers should be aware of shifts in customer reactions that may result from frequent adoption of certain strategies. The company pricing strategy should be seen in relation to developments in the company variables, internal ones (capital strength, competencies, organizational conditions, efficiency of the work force etc. as well as external ones (customers, competitors, the technological development etc., adopting strategic pricing. In this paper I will present the most effective pricing strategies leading to long term profitability, and also suggest practical conditions for pricing strategies to maximize profit in the long run.

  18. Limits to oil pricing: scenario planning as a device to understand oil price developments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Austvik, O.G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper underlines that the politicizing of the oil market makes economics, politics and even pure warfare important elements in the formation of the price of oil. The disagreement about which theory to use to analyze the market and the bad record of oil price forecasting indicates that conventional oil market models should be critically re-assessed. The scenario planning methodology presented in this paper may be one alternative approach. SP does not overthrow any other theories of the market. But it claims that no single discipline is able to tell the whole truth about the market. The SP approach stresses and clarifies the role of uncertainty in the development of oil prices and underlines the importance of the understanding of the functioning of the market. It argues that without a cross-disciplinary approach, with an adequate choice of parameters, at the right level of in-depth discussion, the analysis may lose essential input or drown in detail. As an example of the methodology, an analysis of development of oil prices in the nineties is presented. It is shown that lower (indicated as 15-20 S/bbl) and upper (indicated as 30-40 S/bbl) limits of the price in the long run can be constructed, based on economic, political and strategic reasoning. It is also argued that short run 'shocks' outside these limits may have become less likely, because: (1) the strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) will cut off the most extreme prices above the upper limit and (2) the existence of a supply side regulator, like OPEC, will prevent prices from dropping below the lower limit for any longer period of time. Sensitivity analysis tests the 'robustness' of the approach. 10 refs., 1 fig

  19. Nonlinear Pricing of Information Goods

    OpenAIRE

    Arun Sundararajan

    2003-01-01

    This paper analyzes optimal pricing for information goods under incomplete information, when both unlimited-usage (fixed-fee) pricing and usage-based pricing are feasible, and administering usage-based pricing may involve transaction costs. It is shown that offering fixed- fee pricing in addition to a non-linear usage-based pricing scheme is always profit-improving in the presence of any non-zero transaction costs, and there may be markets in which a pure fixed-fee is optimal. This implies th...

  20. Energy pricing policy in Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davood Manzoor

    1995-01-01

    Low energy prices in Iran do not reflect economic costs. Further distortions exist in the tariff structures of most energy sources and in their relative prices. Price reform is a key policy element for achieving increased energy conservation and economic substitution. Subsidies should be made transparent and explained by the Government, and, when eliminated, they could be compensated by target measures or direct subsidies for low income households. Price reforms are under way, with some caution though, because of possible political and inflationary consequences. In order to better understand the need for price reforms a brief analysis of the current energy pricing policy is provided there. (author)

  1. Moving in extreme environments: what's extreme and who decides?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cotter, James David; Tipton, Michael J

    2014-01-01

    Humans work, rest and play in immensely varied extreme environments. The term 'extreme' typically refers to insufficiency or excess of one or more stressors, such as thermal energy or gravity. Individuals' behavioural and physiological capacity to endure and enjoy such environments varies immensely. Adverse effects of acute exposure to these environments are readily identifiable (e.g. heat stroke or bone fracture), whereas adverse effects of chronic exposure (e.g. stress fractures or osteoporosis) may be as important but much less discernable. Modern societies have increasingly sought to protect people from such stressors and, in that way, minimise their adverse effects. Regulations are thus established, and advice is provided on what is 'acceptable' exposure. Examples include work/rest cycles in the heat, hydration regimes, rates of ascent to and duration of stay at altitude and diving depth. While usually valuable and well intentioned, it is important to realise the breadth and importance of limitations associated with such guidelines. Regulations and advisories leave less room for self-determination, learning and perhaps adaptation. Regulations based on stress (e.g. work/rest cycles relative to WBGT) are more practical but less direct than those based on strain (e.g. core temperature), but even the latter can be substantively limited (e.g. by lack of criterion validation and allowance for behavioural regulation in the research on which they are based). Extreme Physiology & Medicine is publishing a series of reviews aimed at critically examining the issues involved with self- versus regulation-controlled human movement acutely and chronically in extreme environments. These papers, arising from a research symposium in 2013, are about the impact of people engaging in such environments and the effect of rules and guidelines on their safety, enjoyment, autonomy and productivity. The reviews will cover occupational heat stress, sporting heat stress, hydration, diving

  2. Effect of Price Determinants on World Cocoa Prices for Over the Last Three Decades: Error Correction Model (ECM) Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Lya Aklimawati; Teguh Wahyudi

    2013-01-01

    High  volatility  cocoa  price  movement  is  consequenced  by  imbalancing between power demand and power supply in commodity market. World economy expectation and market  liberalization would lead to instability on cocoa prices in  the  international  commerce.  Dynamic  prices  moving  erratically  influence the benefit  of market players, particularly  producers. The aim of this research is  (1)  to  estimate  the  empirical  cocoa  prices  model  for  responding  market dynamics and (2) ...

  3. Pricing offshore wind power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levitt, Andrew C.; Kempton, Willett; Smith, Aaron P.; Musial, Walt; Firestone, Jeremy

    2011-01-01

    Offshore wind offers a very large clean power resource, but electricity from the first US offshore wind contracts is costlier than current regional wholesale electricity prices. To better understand the factors that drive these costs, we develop a pro-forma cash flow model to calculate two results: the levelized cost of energy, and the breakeven price required for financial viability. We then determine input values based on our analysis of capital markets and of 35 operating and planned projects in Europe, China, and the United States. The model is run for a range of inputs appropriate to US policies, electricity markets, and capital markets to assess how changes in policy incentives, project inputs, and financial structure affect the breakeven price of offshore wind power. The model and documentation are made publicly available. - Highlights: → We calculate the Breakeven Price (BP) required to deploy offshore wind plants. → We determine values for cost drivers and review incentives structures in the US. → We develop 3 scenarios using today's technology but varying in industry experience. → BP differs widely by Cost Scenario; relative policy effectiveness varies by stage. → The low-range BP is below regional market values in the Northeast United States.

  4. Carbon pricing comes clean

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Wit, Elisa

    2011-01-01

    Together with the Clean Energy Bill, the implications of the Australian Federal Government's climate change legislative package are far reaching. Norton Rose gives business a heads-up in this breakdown of the draft legislation underpinning the carbon pricing and clean energy scheme. It is a summary of Norton Rose's full analysis.

  5. Road pricing policy implementation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vonk Noordegraaf, D.M.

    2016-01-01

    Urban areas suffer from the negative externalities of road transport like congested road networks, air pollution and road traffic accidents. A measure to reduce these negative externalities is road pricing, meaning policies that impose direct charges on road use (Jones and Hervik, 1992). Since the

  6. 2050: A Pricing Odyssey

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faruqui, Ahmad

    2006-10-15

    The author uses the Rip Van Winkle approach favored by marketers to gaze, clear-eyed, into the future - say, the year 2050 - to visualize alternative demand-response possibilities. Dare we go California Dreamin' of a distant utopia - or is it inevitable that pricing myopia will keep us from attaining the fulfillment of many of our career goals? (author)

  7. Pricing methodologies and approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petrov, K.

    2002-01-01

    The following topics are dealt with: Role of regulatory control in the electric power market; Price regulation; Market monitoring; Quality of supply regulation; Regulatory challenges in Central and Eastern Europe. The findings of these questions are summarized in the Summary. (R.P.)

  8. On Storekeepers' Pricing Behavior.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Bode (Ben); J. Koerts (Johan); A.R. Thurik (Roy)

    1986-01-01

    textabstractThis research note deals with a quantitative analysis of differences in percentage gross margin between individual stores in the retail trade. A number of hypotheses on pricing behavior of storekeepers are tested using Dutch survey data from nine different types of retail stores. We

  9. Price of Prejudice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hedegaard, Morten; Tyran, Jean-Robert Karl

    2018-01-01

    We present a new type of field experiment to investigate ethnic prejudice in the workplace. Our design allows us to study how potential discriminators respond to changes in the cost of discrimination. We find that ethnic discrimination is common but highly responsive to the “price of prejudice”, i...

  10. Coal prices rise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McLean, A.

    2001-01-01

    Coking and semi hard coking coal price agreements had been reached, but, strangely enough, the reaching of common ground on semi soft coking coal, ultra low volatile coal and thermal coal seemed some way off. More of this phenomenon later, but suffice to say that, traditionally, the semi soft and thermal coal prices have fallen into place as soon as the hard, or prime, coking coal prices have been determined. The rise and rise of the popularity of the ultra low volatile coals has seen demand for this type of coal grow almost exponentially. Perhaps one of the most interesting facets of the coking coal settlements announced to date is that the deals appear almost to have been preordained. The extraordinary thing is that the preordination has been at the prescience of the sellers. Traditionally, coking coal price fixing has been the prerogative of the Japanese Steel Mills (JSM) cartel (Nippon, NKK, Kawasaki, Kobe and Sumitomo) who presented a united front to a somewhat disorganised force of predominantly Australian and Canadian sellers. However, by the time JFY 2001 had come round, the rules of the game had changed

  11. Sentiment and art prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Penasse, J.N.G.; Renneboog, L.D.R.; Spaenjers, C.

    We hypothesize the existence of a slow-moving fad component in art prices. Using unique panel survey data on art market participants’ confidence levels in the outlook for a set of artists, we find that sentiment indeed predicts short-term returns.

  12. The Price Is Right?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaffhauser, Dian

    2012-01-01

    There's something about textbook prices that generates outrage in ways that other college expenses, such as housing and technology fees, don't. Maybe it's the shock felt by new students when faced with a $900 bill after getting their textbooks for free in K-12. Maybe it's the awful realization that $40,000 in tuition and board doesn't even cover…

  13. Option Pricing and Momentum

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rodriguez, J.C.

    2007-01-01

    If managers are reluctant to fully adjust dividends to changes in earnings, stock returns and changes in the dividend yield will tend to be negatively correlated. When this is the case, stock returns will exhibit positive autocorrelation, or mo- mentum. This paper studies the pricing of options in

  14. Transfer Pricing Principles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Dennis Ramsdahl

    Konferencebidraget indeholder en kritisk analyse af transfer pricing reglerne på henholdsvis moms og indkomstskatterettens område med henblik på en diskussion af, det er hensigtsmæssigt med en harmonisering af reglerne på tværs af de to retsområder...

  15. Pricing Mining Concessions Based on Combined Multinomial Pricing Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chang Xiao

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A combined multinomial pricing model is proposed for pricing mining concession in which the annualized volatility of the price of mineral products follows a multinomial distribution. First, a combined multinomial pricing model is proposed which consists of binomial pricing models calculated according to different volatility values. Second, a method is provided to calculate the annualized volatility and the distribution. Third, the value of convenience yields is calculated based on the relationship between the futures price and the spot price. The notion of convenience yields is used to adjust our model as well. Based on an empirical study of a Chinese copper mine concession, we verify that our model is easy to use and better than the model with constant volatility when considering the changing annualized volatility of the price of the mineral product.

  16. 7 CFR 1000.54 - Equivalent price.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Equivalent price. 1000.54 Section 1000.54 Agriculture... Prices § 1000.54 Equivalent price. If for any reason a price or pricing constituent required for computing the prices described in § 1000.50 is not available, the market administrator shall use a price or...

  17. Consistent Estimation of Pricing Kernels from Noisy Price Data

    OpenAIRE

    Vladislav Kargin

    2003-01-01

    If pricing kernels are assumed non-negative then the inverse problem of finding the pricing kernel is well-posed. The constrained least squares method provides a consistent estimate of the pricing kernel. When the data are limited, a new method is suggested: relaxed maximization of the relative entropy. This estimator is also consistent. Keywords: $\\epsilon$-entropy, non-parametric estimation, pricing kernel, inverse problems.

  18. International price comparisons for pharmaceuticals. Measurement and policy issues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danzon, P M; Kim, J D

    1998-01-01

    dropped. When such an approach is taken to the comparison of international drug prices, quite different results from those obtained from less comprehensive comparisons may be obtained. Indeed, a major conclusion of this analysis is that international drug price comparisons are extremely sensitive to choices made about certain key methodological issues, such as sample selection, unit of measurement for price and volume, the relative weight given to consumption patterns in the countries being compared, and the use of exchange rates or purchasing power parities for currency conversion. In particular, the results of this analysis indicate that recent reports suggesting that manufacturer prices in the US are 32% higher than in Canada and 60% higher than in the UK are in fact overstatements which arise from limitations of the sample and methods used to calculate these price differentials.

  19. Are electricity prices affected by the US dollar to Euro exchange rate? The Spanish case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Munoz, M. Pilar; Dickey, David A.

    2009-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to investigate the relationships between Spanish electricity spot prices and the US dollar/Euro (USD/Euro) exchange rate during the period 2005-2007, taking into account the study of the association between dollar and oil prices, in order to better understand the evolution of the former over time. The first finding in this study is that Spanish electricity spots prices, the USD/Euro exchange rate and oil prices are cointegrated; therefore there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between the three variables. Short-run relationships have been detected between oil prices and Spanish electricity prices and USD/Euro exchange rate in the sense that Spanish electricity prices and USD/Euro exchange rate are affected by oil prices in the short run. There is a transmission of volatility between USD/Euro exchange rate and oil prices to Spanish electricity prices; so although Spanish electricity prices are not affected in level by the movements of USD/Euro exchange rate, they are in volatility. In this kind of scenario the conclusions confirm that for countries so dependent on external causes as Spain, one possible solution for guarantying the energy security would be the promotion of the renewable energies. Therefore we cannot ignore the impact in the internal expenses of the cost of installation and generation of green energies so there must be a balance between the increase in renewables and the reasonable market price of the electricity. (author)

  20. Export pricing objectives and factors influencing them

    OpenAIRE

    Snieškienė, Gabrielė; Pridotkienė, Jūratė

    2010-01-01

    Pricing is recognized as one of the most important tools to achieve a successful export operation. The starting point in every pricing effort is the process of creating pricing objectives. Pricing objectives are the strategic and economic goals desired by management in pricing the product. Pricing objectives constitute the basis on which pricing methods and policies are formulated. Therefore, a better understanding of the pricing objectives should direct the company’s overall pricing process....

  1. Efficient Pricing of CPPI using Markov Operators

    OpenAIRE

    Louis Paulot; Xavier Lacroze

    2009-01-01

    Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance (CPPI) is a strategy designed to give participation in a risky asset while protecting the invested capital. Some gap risk due to extreme events is often kept by the issuer of the product: a put option on the CPPI strategy is included in the product. In this paper we present a new method for the pricing of CPPIs and options on CPPIs, which is much faster and more accurate than the usual Monte-Carlo method. Provided the underlying follows a homogeneous pr...

  2. Option pricing: Stock price, stock velocity and the acceleration Lagrangian

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baaquie, Belal E.; Du, Xin; Bhanap, Jitendra

    2014-12-01

    The industry standard Black-Scholes option pricing formula is based on the current value of the underlying security and other fixed parameters of the model. The Black-Scholes formula, with a fixed volatility, cannot match the market's option price; instead, it has come to be used as a formula for generating the option price, once the so called implied volatility of the option is provided as additional input. The implied volatility not only is an entire surface, depending on the strike price and maturity of the option, but also depends on calendar time, changing from day to day. The point of view adopted in this paper is that the instantaneous rate of return of the security carries part of the information that is provided by implied volatility, and with a few (time-independent) parameters required for a complete pricing formula. An option pricing formula is developed that is based on knowing the value of both the current price and rate of return of the underlying security which in physics is called velocity. Using an acceleration Lagrangian model based on the formalism of quantum mathematics, we derive the pricing formula for European call options. The implied volatility of the market can be generated by our pricing formula. Our option price is applied to foreign exchange rates and equities and the accuracy is compared with Black-Scholes pricing formula and with the market price.

  3. Options with Extreme Strikes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lingjiong Zhu

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available In this short paper, we study the asymptotics for the price of call options for very large strikes and put options for very small strikes. The stock price is assumed to follow the Black–Scholes models. We analyze European, Asian, American, Parisian and perpetual options and conclude that the tail asymptotics for these option types fall into four scenarios.

  4. Reducing the Burden of Price.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Janet S.

    1984-01-01

    Setting prices for undergraduate education and assessing their effects on consumers and institutions is complicated by widespread price discounting. Student aid programs, credit, subsidized employment, and tax policy can reduce the actual costs paid by students and their families. (MSE)

  5. Pricing strategies for information goods

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    gaming, and education. ... Traditional cost-based pricing ... traditional optimisation models (for instance, the integer programming model described in ...... (1998), many of the key results that shaped modern reasoning about price and product ...

  6. Stereotypic movement disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... this page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/article/001548.htm Stereotypic movement disorder To use the sharing features on this page, please enable JavaScript. Stereotypic movement disorder is a condition in which a person makes ...

  7. Eye Movement Disorders

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... work properly. There are many kinds of eye movement disorders. Two common ones are Strabismus - a disorder ... in "crossed eyes" or "walleye." Nystagmus - fast, uncontrollable movements of the eyes, sometimes called "dancing eyes" Some ...

  8. Overview of Movement Disorders

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... of Delirium Additional Content Medical News Overview of Movement Disorders By Hector A. Gonzalez-Usigli, MD, Professor ... Neurology, HE UMAE Centro Médico Nacional de Occidente; Movement Disorders Clinic, Neurology at IMSS Alberto Espay, MD, ...

  9. Independence of Movement Preparation and Movement Initiation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haith, Adrian M; Pakpoor, Jina; Krakauer, John W

    2016-03-09

    Initiating a movement in response to a visual stimulus takes significantly longer than might be expected on the basis of neural transmission delays, but it is unclear why. In a visually guided reaching task, we forced human participants to move at lower-than-normal reaction times to test whether normal reaction times are strictly necessary for accurate movement. We found that participants were, in fact, capable of moving accurately ∼80 ms earlier than their reaction times would suggest. Reaction times thus include a seemingly unnecessary delay that accounts for approximately one-third of their duration. Close examination of participants' behavior in conventional reaction-time conditions revealed that they generated occasional, spontaneous errors in trials in which their reaction time was unusually short. The pattern of these errors could be well accounted for by a simple model in which the timing of movement initiation is independent of the timing of movement preparation. This independence provides an explanation for why reaction times are usually so sluggish: delaying the mean time of movement initiation relative to preparation reduces the risk that a movement will be initiated before it has been appropriately prepared. Our results suggest that preparation and initiation of movement are mechanistically independent and may have a distinct neural basis. The results also demonstrate that, even in strongly stimulus-driven tasks, presentation of a stimulus does not directly trigger a movement. Rather, the stimulus appears to trigger an internal decision whether to make a movement, reflecting a volitional rather than reactive mode of control. Copyright © 2016 the authors 0270-6474/16/363007-10$15.00/0.

  10. An empirical exploration of the world oil price under the target zone model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang, Linghui; Hammoudeh, Shawkat

    2002-01-01

    This paper investigates the behavior of the world oil price based on the first-generation target zone model. Using anecdotal data during the period of 1988-1999, we found that OPEC has tried to maintain a weak target zone regime for the oil price. Our econometric tests suggest that the movement of the oil price is not only manipulated by actual and substantial interventions by OPEC but also tempered by market participants' expectations of interventions. As a consequence, the non-linear model based on the target zone theory has very good forecasting ability when the oil price approaches the upper or lower limit of the band

  11. An empirical exploration of the world oil price under the target zone model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linghui Tang; Shawkat Hammoudeh

    2002-01-01

    This paper investigates the behavior of the world oil price based on the first-generation target zone model. Using anecdotal data during the period of 1988-1999, we found that OPEC has tried to maintain a weak target zone regime for the oil price. Our econometric tests suggest that the movement of the oil price is not only manipulated by actual and substantial interventions by OPEC but also tempered by market participants' expectations of interventions. As a consequence, the non-linear model based on the target zone theory has very good forecasting ability when the oil price approaches the upper or lower limit of the band. (author)

  12. Price determinants of the European carbon market and interactions with energy markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schumacher, Katja; Cludius, Johanna; Matthes, Felix [Oeko Institut e.V., Berlin (Germany); Diekmann, Jochen; Zaklan, Aleksandar [Deutsches Institut fuer Wirtschaftsforschung, Berlin (Germany); Schleich, Joachim [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer Systemtechnik und Innovationsforschung (ISI), Karlsruhe (Germany)

    2012-06-15

    This report explores the determinants of short run price movements in the carbon market and their interaction with energy markets, in particular with the electricity market. Focusing on Phase 2 of the EU ETS we conduct econometric time series analysis based on continental EU and UK market data. Our findings suggest that market fundamentals have a dominant effect on the EUA price, but that non-fundamental factors may also play a role. We further found that the electricity price has a significant positive impact on the carbon price in the short run.

  13. Pricing objectives in nonprofit hospitals.

    OpenAIRE

    Bauerschmidt, A D; Jacobs, P

    1985-01-01

    This article reports on a survey of 60 financial managers of nonprofit hospitals in the eastern United States relating to the importance of a number of factors which influence their pricing decisions and the pricing objectives which they pursue. Among the results uncovered by the responses: that trustees are the single most important body in the price-setting process (doctors play a relatively unimportant role); that hospital pricing goals are more related to target net revenue than profit ma...

  14. Immigration and Swiss House Prices

    OpenAIRE

    Kathrin Degen; Andreas M. Fischer

    2010-01-01

    This study examines the behavior of Swiss house prices to immigration flows for 85 districts from 2001 to 2006. The results show that the nexus between immigration and house prices holds even in an environment of low house price inflation, nationwide rent control, and modest immigration flows. An immigration inflow equal to 1% of an area's population is coincident with an increase in prices for single-family homes of about 2.7%: a result consistent with previous studies. The overall immigrati...

  15. Brand the Pricing: Critical Critique

    OpenAIRE

    Alam Kazmi, Syed Hasnain

    2015-01-01

    Brand pricing decision models and established theories in the marketing and econometrics focus typically on assuming the symmetric competing businesses. The empirical generalities are key for strategic marketplace planning. The significance of pricing to customer store and brand choices are always regarded as a widely known truth among marketing scholars and explains consumer’s role responding to their psychological representations of price rather than price itself. Scholars have ...

  16. Electric Cars and Oil Prices

    OpenAIRE

    Azar, Jose

    2009-01-01

    This paper studies the joint dynamics of oil prices and interest in electric cars, measured as the volume of Google searches for related phrases. Not surprisingly, I find that oil price shocks predict increases in Google searches for electric cars. Much more surprisingly, I also find that an increase in Google searches predicts declines in oil prices. The high level of public interest in electric cars between April and August of 2008 can explain approximately half of the decline in oil prices...

  17. Strategic pricing of equity issues

    OpenAIRE

    Klaus Ritzberger; Frank Milne

    2002-01-01

    Consider a general equilibrium model where agents may behave strategically. Specifically, suppose some firm issues new shares. If the primary market price is controlled by the issuing institution and investors' expectations on future equity prices are constant in their share purchases, the share price on the primary market cannot exceed the secondary market share price. In certain cases this may imply strict underpricing of newly issued shares. If investors perceive an influence on future sha...

  18. Pricing of Asian temperature risk

    OpenAIRE

    Benth, Fred; Härdle, Wolfgang Karl; López Cabrera, Brenda

    2009-01-01

    Weather derivatives (WD) are different from most financial derivatives because the underlying weather cannot be traded and therefore cannot be replicated by other financial instruments. The market price of risk (MPR) is an important parameter of the associated equivalent martingale measures used to price and hedge weather futures/options in the market. The majority of papers so far have priced non-tradable assets assuming zero MPR, but this assumption underestimates WD prices. We study the MP...

  19. Movement and Space

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riisgaard Hansen, Thomas; Eriksson, Eva; Lykke-Olesen, Andreas

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we explore the space in which movement based interaction takes place. We have in several projects explored how fixed and mobile cameras can be used in movement based interaction and will shortly describe these projects. Based on our experience with working with movement......-based interaction we will briefly introduce and discuss how learning, mapping and multi-user interaction are important when designing movement based interaction....

  20. Recent crustal movements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maelzer, H.

    Calculation of temporal height changes for the determination of recent vertical crustal movements in northern, western, and southern Germany is described. Precise geodetic measurements and their analysis for the determination of recent crustal movements in north-eastern Iceland, western Venezuela, and central Peru are described. Determination of recent vertical crustal movements by leveling and gravity data; geodetic modeling of deformations and recent crustal movements; geodetic modeling of plate motions; and instrumental developments in geodetic measuring are discussed.

  1. Price Regulations in a Multi-unit Uniform Price Auction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boom, Anette

    not exceed the price cap whereas a selective bid cap for only the larger firms, does not guarantee this outcome. A sufficiently high bid floor always destroys pure strategy equilibria with equilibrium prices above the marginal costs, no matter whether the floor applies to all or only to relatively small......Inspired by recent regulations in the New York ICAP market we examine the effect of different price regulations on a multi-unit uniform price auction. We investigate a bid cap and a bid foor. Given suffciently high total capacities general bid caps always ensure that the market price does...

  2. Price Regulations in a Multi-unit Uniform Price Auction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boom, Anette

    Inspired by recent regulations in the New York ICAP market we examine the effect of different price regulations on a multi-unit uniform price auction. We investigate a bid cap and a bid foor. Given suffciently high total capacities general bid caps always ensure that the market price does...... not exceed the price cap whereas a selective bid cap for only the larger firms, does not guarantee this outcome. A sufficiently high bid floor always destroys pure strategy equilibria with equilibrium prices above the marginal costs, no matter whether the floor applies to all or only to relatively small...

  3. Social movements and science

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jamison, Andrew

    2006-01-01

    The article examines the role of social movements in the development of scientific knowledge. Interactions between social movements and science in broad, historical terms are discussed. The relations between the new social movements of the 1960s and 1970s and changes in the contemporary scientific...

  4. Asymmetric Price Effects of Competition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lach, S.; Moraga Gonzalez, J.L.

    2017-01-01

    When price dispersion is prevalent, a relevant question is what happens to the whole distribution of equilibrium prices when the number of firms changes. Using data from the gasoline market in the Netherlands, we find, first, that markets with N competitors have price distributions that first-order

  5. Price Discrimination: A Classroom Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguiló, Paula; Sard, Maria; Tugores, Maria

    2016-01-01

    In this article, the authors describe a classroom experiment aimed at familiarizing students with different types of price discrimination (first-, second-, and third-degree price discrimination). During the experiment, the students were asked to decide what tariffs to set as monopolists for each of the price discrimination scenarios under…

  6. The Pricing of Economics Books.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laband, David; Hudson, John

    2003-01-01

    Examines the pricing and other characteristics of books. Notes substantial increases in book prices between 2000 and 1985 data. Suggests a major factor is the increasing importance of foreign presses that sell books at higher prices. Indicates that discount on paperbacks appear to have been relatively stable in the two years studied. (JEH)

  7. Asymmetric price effects of competition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lach, S.; Moraga González, José

    2017-01-01

    When price dispersion is prevalent, a relevant question is what happens to the whole distribution of equilibrium prices when the number of firms changes. Using data from the gasoline market in the Netherlands, we find, first, that markets with N competitors have price distributions that first‐order

  8. Crude oil prices: It's not like '86

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simmons, M.R.

    1994-01-01

    In 1981, daily crude oil productive capacity exceeded demand by more than 25%, leading to a 4-yr price decline from near $40 per barrel levels, and a sharp drop in 1986 to near $12. But, in 1994, the fundamentals are reversed, worldwide demand is growing, conservation movements are not active, and certain geographic areas, like Asia, are set to tax the system as they modernize. Meanwhile, US and Former Soviet Union production is off, without prospects for near-term turnaround. And there is reason to believe OPEC leaders may not feel compelled to cut their output, when combined small cuts of the magnitude of 5% by the rest of the world's producers could accomplish the same objective of raising oil prices. As with any forecast, only time and hindsight will tell the real story, but 1994 could end up being one of the periodic turning points for what has always been a long-term cyclical industry. This paper summarizes the predictions and causes of predicted price changes

  9. Patients' views on price shopping and price transparency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semigran, Hannah L; Gourevitch, Rebecca; Sinaiko, Anna D; Cowling, David; Mehrotra, Ateev

    2017-06-01

    Driven by the growth of high deductibles and price transparency initiatives, patients are being encouraged to search for prices before seeking care, yet few do so. To understand why this is the case, we interviewed individuals who were offered access to a widely used price transparency website through their employer. Qualitative interviews. We interviewed individuals enrolled in a preferred provider organization product through their health plan about their experience using the price transparency tool (if they had done so), their past medical experiences, and their opinions on shopping for care. All interviews were transcribed and manually coded using a thematic coding guide. In general, respondents expressed frustration with healthcare costs and had a positive opinion of the idea of price shopping in theory, but 2 sets of barriers limited their ability to do so in reality. The first was the salience of searching for price information. For example, respondents recognized that due to their health plan benefits design, they would not save money by switching to a lower-cost provider. Second, other factors were more important than price for respondents when choosing a provider, including quality and loyalty to current providers. We found a disconnect between respondents' enthusiasm for price shopping and their reported use of a price transparency tool to shop for care. However, many did find the tool useful for other purposes, including checking their claims history. Addressing the barriers to price shopping identified by respondents can help inform ongoing and future price transparency initiatives.

  10. Uranium price forecasting methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuller, D.M.

    1994-01-01

    This article reviews a number of forecasting methods that have been applied to uranium prices and compares their relative strengths and weaknesses. The methods reviewed are: (1) judgemental methods, (2) technical analysis, (3) time-series methods, (4) fundamental analysis, and (5) econometric methods. Historically, none of these methods has performed very well, but a well-thought-out model is still useful as a basis from which to adjust to new circumstances and try again

  11. Albania Residential Prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luciana Koprencka

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The real estate market is complex and influenced by too many factors. Real Estate market in Albania has experienced a boom after the 1990. We have inherited from the communist system a very poor market of housing. The number of dwellings in 1990 in Albania was 219 dwellings per 1000 inhabitants and the useful floor space was 5 m² per person, but in Bulgaria number of dwellings per 1,000 people varies 465 and in Romania average useful floor space per person was 37 sq. The data used in this study are derived from the database of the World Bank, the Institute of Statistics, reports of Bank of Albania also from information provided individually on the ground and different sources. In this study is analyzed the relationship that exists between economic growth, remittances and the price of dwellings in Albania. The dependent variable is the average price of housing in major cities of Albania. Independent variables in the model are GDP per capita and the remittances. The Econometric model is a Linear Regress equation and the period are the years from 1998 to 2013. The model used is the statistical program EViews 6.0. Unfortunately the information let the desired, so we do not have an official detailed information on prices of Albanian real estate market. In Albania few researchers have been studying real estate market in Albania.

  12. Record prices [crude oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon

    2006-01-01

    Crude oil prices climbed to new record levels on fears of a future loss of supplies from Iran as Washington stepped up its efforts to persuade Tehran to abandon its programme to produce nuclear fuel. IPE's December Brent contract set a new record for the exchange by trading at $75.80/bbl on 21st April. On the same day October WTI reached an all-time high of $77.30/bbl on Nymex. US product prices gained as refiners struggled to produce sufficient middle distillate. Alarmed by the rising retail price of gasoline, the US Senate debated a reduction in the already low US tax rate on motor spirit. The House of Representatives passed a measure to prohibit overcharging for petrol, diesel and heating oil, but Democrats rejected a Republican proposal to speed-up the process for approving new refineries. President George W Bush announced a temporary easing of new gasoline and diesel specifications (see 'Focus', March 2006) to allow more fuel to be produced. He also agreed to delay the repayment of some 2.1 mn bbl of crude oil lent to companies after last year's hurricanes from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. California announced an inquiry into alleged overcharging for fuel by oil companies operating in the state. (author)

  13. Effectiveness of the management of price risk methodologies for the corn market based on trading signals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Rossouw

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Corn production is scattered geographically over various continents, but most of it is grown in the United States. As such, the world price of corn futures contracts is largely dominated by North American corn prices as traded on the Chicago Board of Trade. In recent years, this market has been characterised by an increase in price volatility and magnitude of price movement as a result of decreasing stock levels. The development and implementation of an effective and successful derivative price risk management strategy based on the Chicago Board of Trade corn futures contract will therefore be of inestimable value to market stakeholders worldwide. The research focused on the efficient market hypothesis and the possibility of contesting this phenomenon through an application of a derivative price risk management methodology. The methodology is based on a combination of an analysis of market trends and technical oscillators with the objective of generating returns superior to that of a market benchmark. The study found that market participants are currently unable to exploit price movement in a manner which results in returns that contest the notion of efficient markets. The methodology proposed, however, does allow the user to consistently achieve returns superior to that of a predetermined market benchmark. The benchmark price for the purposes of this study was the average price offered by the market over the contract lifetime, and as such, the efficient market hypothesis was successfully contested

  14. Price Competition or Tacit Collusion

    OpenAIRE

    Yano, Makoto; Komatsubara, Takashi

    2012-01-01

    Every now and then, we observe a fierce price war in a real world market, through which competing firms end up with a Bertrand-like price competition equilibrium. Despite this, very little has been known in the existing literature as to why a price competition market is formed. We address this question in the context of a choice between engaging in price competition and holding a price leader. Focusing on a duopoly market, we demonstrate that if supply is tight relative to demand, and if the ...

  15. Chaotic structure of oil prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bildirici, Melike; Sonustun, Fulya Ozaksoy

    2018-01-01

    The fluctuations in oil prices are very complicated and therefore, it is unable to predict its effects on economies. For modelling complex system of oil prices, linear economic models are not sufficient and efficient tools. Thus, in recent years, economists attached great attention to non-linear structure of oil prices. For analyzing this relationship, GARCH types of models were used in some papers. Distinctively from the other papers, in this study, we aimed to analyze chaotic pattern of oil prices. Thus, it was used the Lyapunov Exponents and Hennon Map to determine chaotic behavior of oil prices for the selected time period.

  16. Extreme environment electronics

    CERN Document Server

    Cressler, John D

    2012-01-01

    Unfriendly to conventional electronic devices, circuits, and systems, extreme environments represent a serious challenge to designers and mission architects. The first truly comprehensive guide to this specialized field, Extreme Environment Electronics explains the essential aspects of designing and using devices, circuits, and electronic systems intended to operate in extreme environments, including across wide temperature ranges and in radiation-intense scenarios such as space. The Definitive Guide to Extreme Environment Electronics Featuring contributions by some of the world's foremost exp

  17. The impact of electricity price changes on industrial prices and the general price level in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, Seul-Ye; Yoo, Seung-Hoon

    2013-01-01

    Electricity has played an important role in the economic development of Korea and, thus, has become a critical factor in sustaining the well-being of the Korean people. This study attempts to investigate the impact of electricity price changes on industrial prices and the general price level using input–output (I–O) analysis. To this end, we apply the I–O price model to the 2011 I–O table recently produced by the Bank of Korea, paying particular attention to the electricity sector by considering it as exogenous and then investigating its impacts. The impacts of the electricity price changes on each industrial sector's prices and the general price level are quantitatively derived. For example, the overall impact of a 10% increase in electricity price on the Korean national economy is estimated to be 0.4367%. We also report the results from the model with the electricity sector endogenous and the model with endogenous electricity and labor sectors. This information can be usefully utilized in decision-making regarding price management for electricity. - Highlights: • We investigate the impact of electricity price changes on the Korean economy. • We use the input–output (I–O) analysis specifying the electricity sector as exogenous. • We apply the I–O price model to 2010 I–O table produced by the Bank of Korea. • The impact of a 10% increase in electricity price on the Korean economy is 0.2176%

  18. Price floors for emissions trading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wood, Peter John; Jotzo, Frank

    2011-01-01

    Price floors in greenhouse gas emissions trading schemes can guarantee minimum abatement efforts if prices are lower than expected, and they can help manage cost uncertainty, possibly as complements to price ceilings. Provisions for price floors are found in several recent legislative proposals for emissions trading. Implementation however has potential pitfalls. Possible mechanisms are government commitments to buy back permits, a reserve price at auction, or an extra fee or tax on acquittal of emissions permits. Our analysis of these alternatives shows that the fee approach has budgetary advantages and is more compatible with international permit trading than the alternatives. It can also be used to implement more general hybrid approaches to emissions pricing. - Research highlights: → Price floors for emissions trading schemes guarantee a minimum carbon price. → Price floors mean that emissions can be less than specified by the ETS cap. → We examine how price floors can relate to different policy objectives. → We compare different mechanisms for implementing a price floor. → We find that a mechanism where there is an extra tax or fee has advantages.

  19. New Local, National and Regional Cereal Price Indices for Improved Identification of Food Insecurity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Molly E.; Tondel, Fabien; Thorne, Jennifer A.; Essam, Timothy; Mann, Bristol F.; Stabler, Blake; Eilerts, Gary

    2011-01-01

    Large price increases over a short time period can be indicative of a deteriorating food security situation. Food price indices developed by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) are used to monitor food price trends at a global level, but largely reflect supply and demand conditions in export markets. However, reporting by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID)'s Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) indicates that staple cereal prices in many markets of the developing world, especially in surplus-producing areas, often have a delayed and variable response to international export market price trends. Here we present new price indices compiled for improved food security monitoring and assessment, and specifically for monitoring conditions of food access across diverse food insecure regions. We found that cereal price indices constructed using market prices within a food insecure region showed significant differences from the international cereals price, and had a variable price dispersion across markets within each marketshed. Using satellite-derived remote sensing information that estimates local production and the FAO Cereals Index as predictors, we were able to forecast movements of the local or national price indices in the remote, arid and semi-arid countries of the 38 countries examined. This work supports the need for improved decision-making about targeted aid and humanitarian relief, by providing earlier early warning of food security crises.

  20. Trading network predicts stock price.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi

    2014-01-16

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem for studying financial markets. Existing studies are mainly based on the time series of stock price or the operation performance of listed company. In this paper, we propose to predict stock price based on investors' trading behavior. For each stock, we characterize the daily trading relationship among its investors using a trading network. We then classify the nodes of trading network into three roles according to their connectivity pattern. Strong Granger causality is found between stock price and trading relationship indices, i.e., the fraction of trading relationship among nodes with different roles. We further predict stock price by incorporating these trading relationship indices into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 51 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of trading relationship indices.

  1. Reciprocity, World Prices and Welfare

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Raimondos-Møller, Pascalis; Woodland, Alan D.

    We examine in detail the circumstances under which reciprocity, as defined in Bagwell and Staiger (1999), leads to fixed world prices. We show that a change of tariffs satisfying reciprocity does not necessarily imply constant world prices in a world of many goods and countries. While it is possi...... of all countries, independently of whether world prices change and independently of the relative numbers of goods and countries.......We examine in detail the circumstances under which reciprocity, as defined in Bagwell and Staiger (1999), leads to fixed world prices. We show that a change of tariffs satisfying reciprocity does not necessarily imply constant world prices in a world of many goods and countries. While...... it is possible to find tariff reforms that are consistent with both reciprocity and constant world prices, these reforms do not follow from the reciprocity condition, but rather from the requirement of unchanged world prices. We propose an alternative reciprocity rule that is guaranteed to raise the welfare...

  2. Oil price uncertainty in Canada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elder, John [Department of Finance and Real Estate, 1272 Campus Delivery, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523 (United States); Serletis, Apostolos [Department of Economics, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta (Canada)

    2009-11-15

    Bernanke [Bernanke, Ben S. Irreversibility, uncertainty, and cyclical investment. Quarterly Journal of Economics 98 (1983), 85-106.] shows how uncertainty about energy prices may induce optimizing firms to postpone investment decisions, thereby leading to a decline in aggregate output. Elder and Serletis [Elder, John and Serletis, Apostolos. Oil price uncertainty.] find empirical evidence that uncertainty about oil prices has tended to depress investment in the United States. In this paper we assess the robustness of these results by investigating the effects of oil price uncertainty in Canada. Our results are remarkably similar to existing results for the United States, providing additional evidence that uncertainty about oil prices may provide another explanation for why the sharp oil price declines of 1985 failed to produce rapid output growth. Impulse-response analysis suggests that uncertainty about oil prices may tend to reinforce the negative response of output to positive oil shocks. (author)

  3. Industrial Pricing: Theory and Managerial Practice

    OpenAIRE

    Peter M. Noble; Thomas S. Gruca

    1999-01-01

    We organize the existing theoretical pricing research into a new two-level framework for industrial goods pricing. The first level consists of four pricing situations: New Product, Competitive, Product Line, and Cost-based. The second level consists of the pricing strategies appropriate for a given situation. For example, within the new product pricing situation, there are three alternative pricing strategies: Skim, Penetration, and Experience Curve pricing. There are a total of ten pricing s...

  4. Extreme value distributions

    CERN Document Server

    Ahsanullah, Mohammad

    2016-01-01

    The aim of the book is to give a through account of the basic theory of extreme value distributions. The book cover a wide range of materials available to date. The central ideas and results of extreme value distributions are presented. The book rwill be useful o applied statisticians as well statisticians interrested to work in the area of extreme value distributions.vmonograph presents the central ideas and results of extreme value distributions.The monograph gives self-contained of theory and applications of extreme value distributions.

  5. Enhancing medicine price transparency through price information mechanisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinsch, Michael; Kaddar, Miloud; Schmitt, Sarah

    2014-05-08

    Medicine price information mechanisms provide an essential tool to countries that seek a better understanding of product availability, market prices and price compositions of individual medicines. To be effective and contribute to cost savings, these mechanisms need to consider prices in their particular contexts when comparing between countries. This article discusses in what ways medicine price information mechanisms can contribute to increased price transparency and how this may affect access to medicines for developing countries. We used data collected during the course of a WHO project focusing on the development of a vaccine price and procurement information mechanism. The project collected information from six medicine price information mechanisms and interviewed data managers and technical experts on key aspects as well as observed market effects of these mechanisms.The reviewed mechanisms were broken down into categories including objective and target audience, as well as the sources, types and volumes of data included. Information provided by the mechanisms was reviewed according to data available on medicine prices, product characteristics, and procurement modalities. We found indications of positive effects on access to medicines resulting from the utilization of the reviewed mechanisms. These include the uptake of higher quality medicines, more favorable results from contract negotiations, changes in national pricing policies, and the decrease of prices in certain segments for countries participating in or deriving data from the various mechanisms. The reviewed mechanisms avoid the methodological challenges observed for medicine price comparisons that only use national price databases. They work with high quality data and display prices in the appropriate context of procurement modalities as well as the peculiarities of purchasing countries. Medicine price information mechanisms respond to the need for increased medicine price transparency and have the

  6. Ex-vessel Fish Price Database: Disaggregating Prices for Low-Priced Species from Reduction Fisheries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Travis C. Tai

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Ex-vessel fish prices are essential for comprehensive fisheries management and socioeconomic analyses for fisheries science. In this paper, we reconstructed a global ex-vessel price database with the following areas of improvement: (1 compiling reported prices explicitly listed as “for reduction to fishmeal and fish oil” to estimate prices separately for catches destined for fishmeal and fish oil production, and other non-direct human consumption purposes; (2 including 95% confidence limit estimates for each price estimation; and (3 increasing the number of input data and the number of price estimates to match the reconstructed Sea Around Us catch database. Our primary focus was to address this first area of improvement as ex-vessel prices for catches destined for non-direct human consumption purposes were substantially overestimated, notably in countries with large reduction fisheries. For example in Peru, 2010 landed values were estimated as 3.8 billion real 2010 USD when using separate prices for reduction fisheries, compared with 5.8 billion using previous methods with only one price for all end-products. This update of the price database has significant global and country-specific impacts on fisheries price and landed value trends over time.

  7. Determinants of the Price of High-Tech Metals: An Event Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wanner, Markus, E-mail: markus.wanner@mrm.uni-augsburg.de; Gaugler, Tobias; Gleich, Benedikt; Rathgeber, Andreas [University of Augsburg, Institute for Materials Resource Management (Germany)

    2015-06-15

    The growing demand for high-tech products has resulted in strong growth in demand for certain minor metals. In combination with production concentrated in China, this caused strong and unpredicted price movements in recent years. As a result, manufacturing companies have to cope with additional risks. However, the detailed reasons for the price development are only partially understood. Therefore, we analyzed empirically which determinants can be assigned to price movements and performed an event study on the high-tech metals neodymium, indium, and gallium. Based on our dataset of news items, we were able to find coinciding events to almost 90% of all price jumps (recall). We showed that if any information about these events occurred with a probability of over 50% there would also be a price jump within 10 days (precision). However, the classical set of price determinants has to be extended for these specific markets, as we found unorthodox factors like holidays or weather that may be indicators for price movements. Therefore, we hope that our study supports industry for instance in performing more informed short-term planning of metals purchasing based on information about specific events.

  8. The impact of oil prices on the banking system in the Gulf Cooperation Council

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Padamja Khandelwal

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the links between global oil price movements and macroeconomic and financial developments in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC. The GCC economies can be adversely affected by low oil prices due to their high dependence on oil and gas exports and macro-financial linkages which can amplify the effects of oil price movements over the financial cycle. Historically, systemic financial sector risks rose in the GCC countries with the oil price upswing in the years before the global financial crisis. Against this background, a range of multivariate panel approaches, including a panel vector autoregression approach, were applied to macroeconomic and bank-level data covering the six GCC economies and span 1999–2014. The paper finds strong empirical evidence of feedback loops between oil price movements, bank balance sheets, and asset prices. Empirical evidence also suggests that bank capital and provisioning have behaved countercyclically through the cycle. That is, these ratios increase during good times. This has helped strengthen the resilience of the financial system to the oil price decline since mid-2014.

  9. Determinants of the Price of High-Tech Metals: An Event Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wanner, Markus; Gaugler, Tobias; Gleich, Benedikt; Rathgeber, Andreas

    2015-01-01

    The growing demand for high-tech products has resulted in strong growth in demand for certain minor metals. In combination with production concentrated in China, this caused strong and unpredicted price movements in recent years. As a result, manufacturing companies have to cope with additional risks. However, the detailed reasons for the price development are only partially understood. Therefore, we analyzed empirically which determinants can be assigned to price movements and performed an event study on the high-tech metals neodymium, indium, and gallium. Based on our dataset of news items, we were able to find coinciding events to almost 90% of all price jumps (recall). We showed that if any information about these events occurred with a probability of over 50% there would also be a price jump within 10 days (precision). However, the classical set of price determinants has to be extended for these specific markets, as we found unorthodox factors like holidays or weather that may be indicators for price movements. Therefore, we hope that our study supports industry for instance in performing more informed short-term planning of metals purchasing based on information about specific events

  10. Pricing and tariffs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dyrelund, A.

    1993-01-01

    Danish suppliers of electricity and district heating are with a few exceptions either public utilities or cooperatives owned by consumers. The basic tariff regulations for electricity and heat in Denmark state that the tariff has to cover all costs and that only a reasonable interest of invested capital may be included in the tariff. Consequently, all profit has to be used to lower prices. For municipality-owned utilities the consumer prices would be the same if the consumers were the owners. It is typical for the district heating and electricity sector that the technical system, the organizations involved and the tariff levels show the same structure: Plants - transmission - distribution - consumer. E.g. the price of energy from the transmission system includes costs of plants and transmission, but not costs of distribution. Concerning energy saving measures in buildings it is important to note that energy saving measures should not be evaluated on the basis of saved GJ (Giga Joule) thermal energy and GJ electricity because the fuel energy consumption and the share of variable costs depend on the supply system. To find least-cost solutions to satisfy the basic demand for energy services, it is necessary to be aware of the whole chain of elements from fuel to services: fuel - plant - network - consumer installations - building envelope - services. The consumer tariff is the most important link between the supply systems and the buildings. A reasonably designed incentive tariff may work for least-cost solutions, whereas other tariffs may encourage a waste of resources, either waste of fuel energy or waste of investments. (AB)

  11. Regulation of electricity prices?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mihok, P.

    2006-01-01

    In this paper author deals with the regulation of electricity prices in the Slovak Republic. Author contests the social policy of the government through doped prices of electricity. Two thirds of electricity is generated in nuclear power plants in Slovakia. Hence, it is necessary to focus on the solution of problem of nuclear waste. In 2004 Ministry of Economy stated, that the deficit in nuclear fund, from which the country have to fully cover the costs of liquidation and final disposal of nuclear waste, is estimated in the amount of around 89 billion Slovak crowns (≅ 3.7 billion $). From it, so called historical deficit, which originated because of late foundation of fund, represents officially 15 billion Slovak crowns (≅ 0.62 billion $). In Slovakia exists the real risk, that by maintenance of present state by creation and draw of the fund, it will be possible to ensure only 39 per cent of financial sources necessary for full financial handling of the back part of nuclear energetic. Even though the Ministry of Economy in connection with privatisation of Slovenske elektrarne designed to decrease the transfers of operators of nuclear power plants into nuclear fund. In 2006 the Parliament decreased by the law the level of gains of the fund from sale of nuclear electricity (the second from two components of the gains of the fund) from 6.8 to 5.95 per cent from annual revenues. So the tax of forced reduction of the price of nuclear electricity will be represented by loading of the further generations

  12. Meeting competition through negotiated pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keith, D.M.; Raper, J.W.

    1990-01-01

    A fundamental premise of negotiated pricing as a demand-side management (DSM) tool is that price determines cost. As the ultimate objective of energy efficiency is to increase electromotive work while conserving resources, negotiated prices can have a significant impact as a DSM tool to force costs down. Three examples are offered of the effect of negotiated pricing as a DSM tool. The examples are a small hydroelectric company and an electric utility authority owned, a utility-to-customer example of negotiated pricing with the Public Service Company of Oklahoma's (PSO) system, and a large paper mill on PSO's system. Some of the major problems associated with negotiated pricing, outside of the human effort of finding and training knowledgeable and skilled negotiators, are: obtaining enough information about the customer or potential customer to be able to determine that in negotiating prices the utility is not giving away more benefits than the utility will gain; developing a pricing plan that fits both the customer's and utility's existing and potential future mode of operation; assuring that other customers who cannot negotiate on their own behalf are not adversely affected by utility revenue shortfalls; making such negotiated prices available to all similarly situated customers, so as not to inadvertently create unfair competitive advantages among them; and defining the shared benefits before and after the fact as a result of having negotiated prices in the first place

  13. Understanding gasoline pricing in Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-04-01

    This brochure is designed to help consumers understand how gasoline is priced and explained why prices increase, fluctuate and vary by location, city or region. The price of a litre of gasoline reflects the costs of crude oil, refining, retailing and taxes. Taxes are usually the largest single component of gasoline prices, averaging 40 to 50 per cent of the pump price. The cost of crude oil makes up another 35 to 45 per cent of the price. Refining costs make up 10 to 15 per cent while the remaining 5 to 10 per cent represents retail costs. Gasoline retailers make a profit of about 1 cent per litre. The latest network technology allows national and regional retail chains to constantly monitor price fluctuations to change their prices at gasoline stations at a moments notice to keep up with the competition and to protect their market shares. Several government studies, plus the Conference Board of Canada, have reported that competition is working in favour of Canadian motorists. This brochure also explained the drawbacks of regulating crude and pump prices with the reminder that crude prices were regulated in the 1970s with many negative consequences. 2 tabs., 1 fig

  14. Transfer Pricing - An Innovative Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramona MAXIM

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents transfer pricing and elements of drafting the transfer pricing file by the big companies. The transfer pricing procedure was founded based upon Order no. 442/2016 and the Fiscal Procedure Code and it represents a method upon which the tax base is transferred from a high tax country to a country with low taxation. This legislation outlines the conditions which companies must observe in order to draft the transfer pricing documentation and the significance thresholds. The purpose to draft a transfer pricing file is to reduce the differences between prices and market value and the actual results of company taxation. Economic double taxation occurs when tax authorities apply price adjustments because the company did not respect the principle of market value. Keeping records of transfer pricing and practicing a price aligned to market requirements contribute to an understanding of business development and the creation of appropriate tax planning. Taking into account all these aspects and the fact that any taxpayer is tempted to pay the lowest possible fees, tax havens become an option. In this context we can speak of a tax haven as a loophole in the use of the market price.

  15. Strong volume, stable prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    This article is the September-October 1993 market report, providing trading volume and prices in the Uranium market. Activity was brisk, with 15 deals concluded. Six were in the spot concentrates market, with four of the six deals involving U.S. utilities and approximately 1.8M pounds of U3O8 equivalent. There were five conversion deals announced, with four of the five deals involving U.S. utilities. Four deals were concluded in the enrichment market, and the deals involving U.S. utilities were approximately 327k SWUs. On the horizon, there are deals for approximately 4.1M SWU

  16. Priced Timed Automata

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Behrmann, Gerd; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Rasmussen, Jacob Illum

    2004-01-01

    This contribution reports on the considerable effort made recently towards extending and applying well-established timed automata technology to optimal scheduling and planning problems. The effort of the authors in this direction has to a large extent been carried out as part of the European...... projects VHS [22] and AMETIST [17] and are available in the recently released UPPAAL CORA [12], a variant of the real-time verification tool UPPAAL [20,5] specialized for cost-optimal reachability for the extended model of priced timed automata....

  17. Volatility in energy prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duffie, D.

    1999-01-01

    This chapter with 58 references reviews the modelling and empirical behaviour of volatility in energy prices. Constant volatility and stochastic volatility are discussed. Markovian models of stochastic volatility are described and the different classes of Markovian stochastic volatility model are examined including auto-regressive volatility, option implied and forecasted volatility, Garch volatility, Egarch volatility, multivariate Garch volatility, and stochastic volatility and dynamic hedging policies. Other volatility models and option hedging are considered. The performance of several stochastic volatility models as applied to heating oil, light oil, natural gas, electricity and light crude oil are compared

  18. PRICING STRATEGY FOR DIGITAL PRODUCTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MARIA MAGDALENA CRIVEANU

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The current society imposes an alert pace on companies that need to adapt to change, become more flexible and adopt new strategies to maintain market share. Digital marketing is a useful tool for promoting products, as customers can access a range of product information at any time and from anywhere. At the same time, another advantage on the part of companies is the lower promotion costs as compared to traditional promotional methods, as well as the establishment of a connection and a communication bridge with each client. The most important component in the process of purchasing a product is inevitably the price. It communicates a series of information about the product and the customer so that the price can be an important element of persuasion in relation to other marketing strategies. Most of the time, the smallest price is the most important factor in making a decision about buying a product, and digital marketing offers the posibility to compare prices. In this sense, digital marketing can provide both an advantage and a disadvantage for traders, as the small price may invalidate other marketing strategies or product features. In this sense, pricing is a challenge for marketing departments because the pricing strategy is deferring from the sterile formula of pricing which meant covering costs and making profit. This paper aims to analyze the extent to which price is an important element in purchasing a product, as well as highlighting a variety of methods and techniques used in pricing. Quantitative research is based on a questionnaire applied to 100 respondents in order to identify the correct pricing strategy. Research results communicate an important message to merchants who have to adjust the price of each buyer individually, so that the buyer profile is particularly important in setting the price.

  19. Energy return on (energy) invested (EROI), oil prices, and energy transitions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heun, Matthew Kuperus; de Wit, Martin

    2012-01-01

    Very little work has been done so far to model, test, and understand the relationship between oil prices and EROI over time. This paper investigates whether a declining EROI is associated with an increasing oil price and speculates on the implications of these results on oil policy. A model of the relationship between EROI and oil market prices was developed using basic economic and physical assumptions and non-linear least-squares regression models to correlate oil production price with EROI using available data from 1954–1996. The model accurately reflects historical oil prices (1954–1996), and it correlates well with historical oil prices (1997–2010) if a linear extrapolation of EROI decline is assumed. As EROI declines below 10, highly non-linear oil price movements are observed. Increasing physical oil scarcity is already providing market signals that would stimulate a transition away from oil toward alternative energy sources. But, price signals of physical oil scarcity are not sufficient to guarantee smooth transitions to alternative fuel sources, especially when there is insufficient oil extraction technology development, a declining mark-up ratio, a non-linear EROI–cost of production relationship, and a non-linear EROI–price relationship. - Highlights: ► A model of the relationship between EROI and oil prices has been developed. ► As EROI declines below 10, highly non-linear oil price movements are expected. ► Physical oil scarcity provides market signals for a transition to alternatives. ► Scarcity price signals are insufficient for smooth transitions to alternatives.

  20. Cross-border electricity market effects due to price caps in an emission trading system: An agent-based approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richstein, Jörn C.; Chappin, Emile J.L.; Vries, Laurens J. de

    2014-01-01

    The recent low CO 2 prices in the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) have triggered a discussion whether the EU ETS needs to be adjusted. We study the effects of CO 2 price floors and a price ceiling on the dynamic investment pathway of two interlinked electricity markets (loosely based on Great Britain, which already has introduced a price floor, and on Central Western Europe). Using an agent-based electricity market simulation with endogenous investment and a CO 2 market (including banking), we analyse the cross-border effects of national policies as well as system-wide policy options. A common, moderate CO 2 auction reserve price results in a more continuous decarbonisation pathway. This reduces CO 2 price volatility and the occurrence of carbon shortage price periods, as well as the average cost to consumers. A price ceiling can shield consumers from extreme price shocks. These price restrictions do not cause a large risk of an overall emissions overshoot in the long run. A national price floor lowers the cost to consumers in the other zone; the larger the zone with the price floor, the stronger the effect. Price floors that are too high lead to inefficiencies in investment choices and to higher consumer costs. - Highlights: • Cross-border effects of CO 2 policies were investigated with an agent-based model. • The current EU ETS might cause CO 2 price shocks and CO 2 price volatility. • A CO 2 auction reserve price does not lower welfare, but lowers CO 2 price volatility. • A national CO 2 price floor lowers consumer cost in the other countries. • A CO 2 price ceiling does not lead to an overshoot of emissions

  1. Price sensitive demand with random sales price - a newsboy problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sankar Sana, Shib

    2012-03-01

    Up to now, many newsboy problems have been considered in the stochastic inventory literature. Some assume that stochastic demand is independent of selling price (p) and others consider the demand as a function of stochastic shock factor and deterministic sales price. This article introduces a price-dependent demand with stochastic selling price into the classical Newsboy problem. The proposed model analyses the expected average profit for a general distribution function of p and obtains an optimal order size. Finally, the model is discussed for various appropriate distribution functions of p and illustrated with numerical examples.

  2. Modelling the impact of oil prices on Vietnam's stock prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narayan, Paresh Kumar; Narayan, Seema

    2010-01-01

    The goal of this paper is to model the impact of oil prices on Vietnam's stock prices. We use daily data for the period 2000-2008 and include the nominal exchange rate as an additional determinant of stock prices. We find that stock prices, oil prices and nominal exchange rates are cointegrated, and oil prices have a positive and statistically significant impact on stock prices. This result is inconsistent with theoretical expectations. The growth of the Vietnamese stock market was accompanied by rising oil prices. However, the boom of the stock market was marked by increasing foreign portfolio investment inflows which are estimated to have doubled from US$0.9 billion in 2005 to US$1.9 billion in 2006. There was also a change in preferences from holding foreign currencies and domestic bank deposits to stocks local market participants, and there was a rise in leveraged investment in stock as well as investments on behalf of relatives living abroad. It seems that the impact of these internal and domestic factors were more dominant than the oil price rise on the Vietnamese stock market. (author)

  3. Movement monitoring device

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ichikawa, Takashi; Yoneda, Yasuaki; Hanatsumi, Masaharu.

    1997-01-01

    The present invention provides a device suitable to accurate recognition for the moving state of reactor core fuels as an object to be monitored in a nuclear power plant. Namely, the device of the present invention prepares each of scheduled paths for the movement of the object to be monitored and executed moving paths along with the movement based on the information of the movement obtained from scheduled information for the movement of the reactor core fuels as a object to be monitored and the actual movement of the object to be monitored. The results of the preparation are outputted. As an output mode, (1) the results of preparation for each of the paths for movement and the results of the monitoring obtained by monitoring the state of the object to be monitored are jointed and outputted, (2) images showing each of the paths for the movement are formed, and the formed images are displayed on a screen, and (3) each of the moving paths is prepared as an image, and the image is displayed together with the image of the regions before and after the movement of the object to be monitored. In addition, obtained images of each of the paths for the movement and the monitored images obtained by monitoring the state of the object to be monitored are joined and displayed. (I.S.)

  4. Classification of movement disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fahn, Stanley

    2011-05-01

    The classification of movement disorders has evolved. Even the terminology has shifted, from an anatomical one of extrapyramidal disorders to a phenomenological one of movement disorders. The history of how this shift came about is described. The history of both the definitions and the classifications of the various neurologic conditions is then reviewed. First is a review of movement disorders as a group; then, the evolving classifications for 3 of them--parkinsonism, dystonia, and tremor--are covered in detail. Copyright © 2011 Movement Disorder Society.

  5. Sensation of Movement

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sensation of Movement will discuss the role of sensation in the control of action, bodily self-recognition, and sense of agency. Sensing movement is dependent on a range of information received by the brain, from signalling in the peripheral sensory organs to the establishment of higher order goals....... This volume will question whether one type of information is more relevant for the ability to sense and control movements, and demonstrate the importance of integrating neuroscientific knowledge with philosophical perspectives, in order to arrive at new insights into how sensation of movement can be studied...

  6. DOES FEAR (VIX INDEX INCITE VOLATILITY IN FOOD PRICES?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gökhan Çınar

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Globally, the volatility trend in food prices has continued to increase. Different data give the impression that this volatility may be caused by the international finance markets’ propagation effect. For this reason, the study focused on the VIX (fear index that is used to measure the movement in Standard & Poor’s 500 index. The main objective of the study is to analyze the degree of volatility between the VIX index and the wheat market. The research is comprised of monthly data obtained from year 2000 to 2015. The study employs the BEKK GARCH method. The findings show that the variance shocks in the fear index damage food prices. The results may be useful to policy makers in researching the causes of changes in the prices of food commodity and taking necessary measures.

  7. Pricing hazardous substance emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Staring, Knut; Vennemo, Haakon

    1998-12-31

    This report discusses pricing of emissions to air of several harmful substances. It combines ranking indices for environmentally harmful substances with economic valuation data to yield price estimates. The ranking methods are discussed and a relative index established. Given the relative ranking of the substances, they all become valued by assigning a value to one of them, the `anchor` substance, for which lead is selected. Valuations are provided for 19 hazardous substances that are often subject to environmental regulations. They include dioxins, TBT, etc. The study concludes with a discussion of other categories of substances as well as uncertainties and possible refinements. When the valuations are related to CO, NOx, SOx and PM 10, the index system undervalues these pollutants as compared to other studies. The scope is limited to the outdoor environment and does not include global warming and eutrophication. The indices are based on toxicity and so do not apply to CO{sub 2} or other substances that are biologically harmless. The index values are not necessarily valid for all countries and should be considered as preliminary. 18 refs., 6 tabs.

  8. From tariffs to prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baena, D. Eduardo Martin

    1998-01-01

    It looks like that all over the World things are changing. Many countries, Spain among them, where electricity regulations were usual, are changing their regulatory mainframe. Since January 1, 1998, electricity production is a deregulated activity in Spain. There has to be open market competition. Prices that are very important for the time coming, have to cover the production cost plus some profits in order to maintain the company profitability. This cultural change applies to all our production facilities, including nuclear power plants. Taking into account this new situation and the nuclear competitiveness, it is important for all of us to understand this issue. As it is well known, nuclear energy is capital intensive, that means it has to compete as base load units due to their low operating costs and their large capital ones. For that reason it is important to reduce as much as possible the operating and maintenance cost as well as the fuel one, which will allow nuclear plants to compete in marginal costs with others units. Nuclear energy, in Spain, is not going to fix the pool price but it has to recover some depreciation through it, the remaining being recovered by the recognition of an important part of the stranded cost. (author)

  9. Pricing hazardous substance emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Staring, Knut; Vennemo, Haakon

    1997-12-31

    This report discusses pricing of emissions to air of several harmful substances. It combines ranking indices for environmentally harmful substances with economic valuation data to yield price estimates. The ranking methods are discussed and a relative index established. Given the relative ranking of the substances, they all become valued by assigning a value to one of them, the `anchor` substance, for which lead is selected. Valuations are provided for 19 hazardous substances that are often subject to environmental regulations. They include dioxins, TBT, etc. The study concludes with a discussion of other categories of substances as well as uncertainties and possible refinements. When the valuations are related to CO, NOx, SOx and PM 10, the index system undervalues these pollutants as compared to other studies. The scope is limited to the outdoor environment and does not include global warming and eutrophication. The indices are based on toxicity and so do not apply to CO{sub 2} or other substances that are biologically harmless. The index values are not necessarily valid for all countries and should be considered as preliminary. 18 refs., 6 tabs.

  10. TOURISM MARKET: PRICING ISSUES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina A. Kiseleva

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Article retractedThe article is devoted to the actual topic of our time - the development of tourism services. The development of tourism is the leading technology trend dynamics maroon economic caused social restructuring of modern society. Macroeconomic Financial Statistics conrms the minimum amplitude of cyclical uctuations in the service sector, which turns it into countercyclical tool. In the Russian Federation the economic problem of a state policy in the sphere of tourist services is defined - to having turned tourism in competitive, innovative, countercyclical, and highly protable sector of national business. In article pricing factors are dened and are dened key of them, responsible for the cost of a tourist product. This work answers such questions of travel company as: denition of optimum group, formation of a transport tariff, structure of a tourist product on the main and accompanying services and their range, ways of sale. A practical advice by calculation of expenses is given. Correlation and regression and cluster analyses acted as research tools when performing work. In article the conclusion is drawn that the main methods of marketing management of pricing in the market of tourist services are: transition to the unified technology of granting a service on the basis of ISO; intensication and integration of the sphere of production and services

  11. Estimating the Volatility of Cocoa Price Return with ARCH and GARCH Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lya Aklimawati

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Dynamics of market changing as a result of market liberalization have an impact on agricultural commodities price fluctuation. High volatility on cocoa price movement reflect its price and market risk. Because of price and market uncertainty, the market players face some difficulties to make a decision in determining business development. This research was conducted to 1 understand the characteristics of cocoa price movement in cocoa futures trading, and 2analyze cocoa price volatility using ARCH and GARCH type model. Research was carried out by direct observation on the pattern of cocoa price movement in the futures trading and volatility analysis based on secondary data. The data was derived from Intercontinental Exchange ( ICE Futures U.S. Reports. The analysis result showed that GARCH is the best model to predict the value of average cocoa price return volatility, because it meets criteria of three diagnostic checking, which are ARCH-LM test, residual autocorrelation test and residual normality test. Based on the ARCH-LM test, GARCH (1,1did not have heteroscedasticity, because p-value  2 (0.640139and F-statistic (0.640449 were greater than 0.05. Results of residual autocorrelation test indicated that residual value of GARCH (1,1 was random, because the statistic value of Ljung-Box (LBon the 36 th lag is smaller than the statistic value of  2. Whereas, residual normality test concluded the residual of GARCH (1,1 were normally distributed, because AR (29, MA (29, RESID (-1^2, and GARCH (-1 were significant at 5% significance level. Increasing volatility value indicate high potential risk. Price risk can be reduced by managing financial instrument in futures trading such as forward and futures contract, and hedging. The research result also give an insight to the market player for decision making and determining time of hedging. Key words: Volatility, price, cocoa, GARCH, risk, futures trading

  12. A Multiperiod Equilibrium Pricing Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minsuk Kwak

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose an equilibrium pricing model in a dynamic multiperiod stochastic framework with uncertain income. There are one tradable risky asset (stock/commodity, one nontradable underlying (temperature, and also a contingent claim (weather derivative written on the tradable risky asset and the nontradable underlying in the market. The price of the contingent claim is priced in equilibrium by optimal strategies of representative agent and market clearing condition. The risk preferences are of exponential type with a stochastic coefficient of risk aversion. Both subgame perfect strategy and naive strategy are considered and the corresponding equilibrium prices are derived. From the numerical result we examine how the equilibrium prices vary in response to changes in model parameters and highlight the importance of our equilibrium pricing principle.

  13. The price of crude oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bakhtiari, A.M.S.

    1999-01-01

    The price of crude oil is among the most important prices quoted daily across the world - which is not surprising, since crude oil is the most widely used source of energy worldwide, as well as being a unique commodity. When petroleum burst onto the world stage in 1859, its price first went through some initial gyrations (1860-70), before settling in the $1.00 - 2.00 per barrel range (barring a few exceptions) for a full century. Then, the price underwent two 'shocks' (1973 and 1980), followed by the 'counter-shock' of 1986. Thereafter, the price entered the relative stability of the $15 - 20 /b consensus, where it lingered until recently. Some day, there is bound to be a fresh paradigm of 'insufficient oil reserves', thus ushering in a new era for oil prices. Taking into consideration available data on reserves and expert analysis, it would seem that that day may be years rather than decades away

  14. Projections of the energy prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jankauskas, V.

    1996-01-01

    This article deals with the trends of the main fuel prices development in the Western European markets. There are two possible price development scenarios presented in the article. Transportation costs of various internationally traded fuels from various sources (Russia, Western Europe) are estimated and their most feasible values are considered. Fuel prices for the final big consumers are calculated adding the domestic distribution costs. Trends of heat and electricity price development in Lithuania during the period of 1991-1995 are analyzed. Forecasts of the electricity generation and supply costs are calculated according to various scenarios. Electricity prices will be lowest in the case of the further operation of the Ignalina NPP and low fuel prices in international markets. (author). 8 refs., 14 figs., 4 tabs

  15. Stock prices and business investment

    OpenAIRE

    Yaron Leitner

    2007-01-01

    Is there a link between the stock market and business investment? Empirical evidence indicates that there is. A firm tends to invest more when its stock price increases, and it tends to invest less when the price falls. In “Stock Prices and Business Investment,” Yaron Leitner discusses existing research that explains this relationship. One question under consideration is whether the stock market actually improves investment decisions.

  16. Nonlinear Pricing to Produce Information

    OpenAIRE

    David J. Braden; Shmuel S. Oren

    1994-01-01

    We investigate the firm's dynamic nonlinear pricing problem when facing consumers whose tastes vary according to a scalar index. We relax the standard assumption that the firm knows the distribution of this index. In general the firm should determine its marginal price schedule as if it were myopic, and produce information by lowering the price schedule; “bunching” consumers at positive purchase levels should be avoided. As a special case we also consider a market characterized by homogeneous...

  17. Essays in Empirical Asset Pricing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rzeznik, Aleksandra

    This thesis consists of three essays investigating financial and real estate markets and identifying a relationship between them. A 2008 financial crises provides a perfect example of sizeable interactions between US housing market and equity prices, where a negative shock to house prices trigger...... a word-wide recession. Therefore, understanding forces driving investors behaviour and preferences, which in turn affect asset prices in both equity and housing market are of great interest....

  18. Demand Uncertainty and Price Stabilization

    OpenAIRE

    E. Kwan Choi; Stanley R. Johnson

    1987-01-01

    Price stabilization is an important policy goal of government intervention in competitive markets. These policies are primarily directed at raising producer income and stabilizing market prices at levels acceptable to consumers and producers (Fox 1956, Turnovsky 1978, Newbery and Stiglitz 1979). Many of the stabilization policy results have been developed from the study of agricultural commodity markets. In these markets, prices tend to be highly variable due to uncertain and inelastic supply...

  19. Competitive nonlinear pricing and bundling

    OpenAIRE

    Armstrong, Mark; Vickers, John

    2006-01-01

    We examine the impact of multiproduct nonlinear pricing on profit, consumer surplus and welfare in a duopoly. When consumers buy all their products from one firm (the one-stop shopping model), nonlinear pricing leads to higher profit and welfare, but often lower consumer surplus, than linear pricing. By contrast, in a unit-demand model where consumers may buy one product from one firm and another product from another firm, bundling generally acts to reduce profit and welfare and to boost cons...

  20. Asset Pricing and Monetary Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Bingbing Dong

    2014-01-01

    This paper examines the role of money in understanding the behavior of asset prices and whether and how monetary policy should react to asset prices such as stock prices and equity premiums. To do so, I introduce money via the form of transaction cost into a production economy with limited stock market participation where agents with lower inter-temporal elasticity of substitution (IES), called non-stockholders, have no access to stock market. In addition to facilitating transactions of consu...

  1. Regional Mc parity: do common pricing points reduce deviations from the law of one price?

    OpenAIRE

    Mathä, Thomas Y.

    2009-01-01

    Abstract This paper analyses price differences of McDonald?s products in four different countries. I show that pricing at pricing points in different currencies may contribute to explaining deviations from the law of one price. Observing strictly equal prices is more probable if prices are set at psychological and fractional pricing points in a common currency. The latter is also found to reduce the size of price deviations. Additionally, price differences increase as transaction c...

  2. Near-term oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lynch, M.C.

    2001-01-01

    This PowerPoint presentation included 36 slides that described the state of oil prices and how to predict them. Prices are random, stochastic, chaotic, mean-reverting and driven by speculators, oil companies and OPEC. The many factors that enable price forecasting are economic growth, weather, industry behaviour, speculators, OPEC policy choices, Mexico/Russia production policy, non-OPEC supply and the interpretation of the above factors by OPEC, speculators, traders and the petroleum industry. Several graphs were included depicting such things as WTI price forecasts, differentials, oil market change in 2001, inventory levels, and WTI backwardation. The presentation provided some explanations for price uncertainties, price surges and collapses. U.S. GDP growth and the volatility of Iraq's production was also depicted. The author predicted that economic growth will occur and that oil demand will go up. Oil prices will fluctuate as the Middle East will be politically unstable and weather will be a major factor that will influence oil prices. The prices are likely to be more volatile than in the 1986 to 1995 period. 2 tabs., 22 figs

  3. Alpha Momentum and Price Momentum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannah Lea Hühn

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available We analyze a novel alpha momentum strategy that invests in stocks based on three-factor alphas which we estimate using daily returns. The empirical analysis for the U.S. and for Europe shows that (i past alpha has power in predicting the cross-section of stock returns; (ii alpha momentum exhibits less dynamic factor exposures than price momentum and (iii alpha momentum dominates price momentum only in the U.S. Connecting both strategies to behavioral explanations, alpha momentum is more related to an underreaction to firm-specific news while price momentum is primarily driven by price overshooting due to momentum trading.

  4. Transmission pricing: paradigms and methodologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shirmohammadi, Dariush [Pacific Gas and Electric Co., San Francisco, CA (United States); Vieira Filho, Xisto; Gorenstin, Boris [Centro de Pesquisas de Energia Eletrica (CEPEL), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Pereira, Mario V.P. [Power System Research, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    1994-12-31

    In this paper we describe the principles of several paradigms and methodologies for pricing transmission services. The paper outlines some of the main characteristics of these paradigms and methodologies such as where they may be used for best results. Due to their popularity, power flow based MW-mile and short run marginal cost pricing methodologies will be covered in some detail. We conclude the paper with examples of the application of these two pricing methodologies for pricing transmission services in Brazil. (author) 25 refs., 2 tabs.

  5. Energy pricing under uncertain supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Serra, P.J.

    1997-01-01

    This paper introduces a new pricing system - based on the Chilean tariff regulations - to deal with an uncertain energy supply. It consists of a basic rate for each unit actually consumed and a compensation that the utilities pay their customers for each unit of energy that they voluntarily reduce below their normal consumption during an energy shortage. Within the framework of a model that portrays the stylized facts of the Chilean electric system, and assumes risk-neutral agents, this paper shows the equivalency of the new pricing system with both contingent pricing and priority pricing. (Author)

  6. Producers give prices a boost

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    Uranium producers came alive in August, helping spot prices crack the $8.00 barrier for the first time since March. The upper end of NUKEM's price range actually finished the month at $8.20. Scrambling to fulfill their long-term delivery contracts, producers dominate the market. In the span of three weeks, five producers came out for 2 million lbs U3O8, ultimately buying nearly 1.5 million lbs. One producer accounted for over half this volume. The major factor behind rising prices was that producers required specific origins to meet contract obligations. Buyers willing to accept open origins created the lower end of NUKEM's price range

  7. House Prices and Public Debt

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gjedsted Nielsen, Mads; Rzeznik, Aleksandra

    By using the 2002 case of fraud in the Danish municipality Farum by then mayor Peter Brixtofte as an exogenous shock to public debt of 1 billion DKK, I estimate the effect of public debt on house prices. I find that the average home ownership lost about 570,000 DKK or as much as 29% of the average...... house price in the municipality. Furthermore, I document that the aggregate house price loss of 2.1 billion DKK greatly exceeds the increase in public debt of 1 billion DKK. I find that the drop in house prices is sustained 1 year, indicating that the housing market initially overreacts...

  8. The determinants of oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Angelier, J-P.

    1991-01-01

    In recent years, swings in oil prices have been of unprecendented severity and frequency. Three factors work together to determine the price of oil: in the short term, the balance between supply and demand; in the medium term, the structure of the oil industry; and in the long term, the marginal production cost consistent with world oil demand. An oil price forecast is presented based on these considerations, and it is predicted that in the year 2000, oil prices will not be significantly different from those of today. 28 refs

  9. Price Strategies in Banking Marketing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iuliana Cetina

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available All organizations must settle a price for the services they offer. The price for services is an important element of the marketing mix, being an important income source for the organization. The settlement of a correct price, both for the market and the competition, is a significant element for the sector of financial - banking services. Another important factor to take into consideration is the fact that the banks do not settle only the prices for individual services, but also coordinate their prices for service packages. As the competition in the financial - banking services has intensified, the settlement of correct prices has become an essential element for the marketing strategy. Nevertheless it is important to remind that the price is not a central element. There are other significant grounds, the price being only one of the elements of the marketing mix. Although in Romania many customers may be sensitive in present to the price, as the competition will increase, the quality of the services will become more important to the customers, and the demand will be complex.

  10. How extreme is extreme hourly precipitation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papalexiou, Simon Michael; Dialynas, Yannis G.; Pappas, Christoforos

    2016-04-01

    The importance of accurate representation of precipitation at fine time scales (e.g., hourly), directly associated with flash flood events, is crucial in hydrological design and prediction. The upper part of a probability distribution, known as the distribution tail, determines the behavior of extreme events. In general, and loosely speaking, tails can be categorized in two families: the subexponential and the hyperexponential family, with the first generating more intense and more frequent extremes compared to the latter. In past studies, the focus has been mainly on daily precipitation, with the Gamma distribution being the most popular model. Here, we investigate the behaviour of tails of hourly precipitation by comparing the upper part of empirical distributions of thousands of records with three general types of tails corresponding to the Pareto, Lognormal, and Weibull distributions. Specifically, we use thousands of hourly rainfall records from all over the USA. The analysis indicates that heavier-tailed distributions describe better the observed hourly rainfall extremes in comparison to lighter tails. Traditional representations of the marginal distribution of hourly rainfall may significantly deviate from observed behaviours of extremes, with direct implications on hydroclimatic variables modelling and engineering design.

  11. Optimization with Extremal Dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boettcher, Stefan; Percus, Allon G.

    2001-01-01

    We explore a new general-purpose heuristic for finding high-quality solutions to hard discrete optimization problems. The method, called extremal optimization, is inspired by self-organized criticality, a concept introduced to describe emergent complexity in physical systems. Extremal optimization successively updates extremely undesirable variables of a single suboptimal solution, assigning them new, random values. Large fluctuations ensue, efficiently exploring many local optima. We use extremal optimization to elucidate the phase transition in the 3-coloring problem, and we provide independent confirmation of previously reported extrapolations for the ground-state energy of ±J spin glasses in d=3 and 4

  12. Port pricing : principles, structure and models

    OpenAIRE

    Meersman, Hilde; Strandenes, Siri Pettersen; Van de Voorde, Eddy

    2014-01-01

    Price level and price transparency are input to shippers’ choice of supply chain and transport mode. In this paper, we analyse current port pricing structures in the light of the pricing literature and consider opportunities for improvement. We present a detailed overview of pricing criteria, who sets prices and who ultimately foots the bill for port-of-call charges, cargo-handling fees and congestion charges. Current port pricing practice is based on a rather linear structure and fails to in...

  13. Consumer food choices: the role of price and pricing strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steenhuis, Ingrid H M; Waterlander, Wilma E; de Mul, Anika

    2011-12-01

    To study differences in the role of price and value in food choice between low-income and higher-income consumers and to study the perception of consumers about pricing strategies that are of relevance during grocery shopping. A cross-sectional study was conducted using structured, written questionnaires. Food choice motives as well as price perceptions and opinion on pricing strategies were measured. The study was carried out in point-of-purchase settings, i.e. supermarkets, fast-food restaurants and sports canteens. Adults (n 159) visiting a point-of-purchase setting were included. Price is an important factor in food choice, especially for low-income consumers. Low-income consumers were significantly more conscious of value and price than higher-income consumers. The most attractive strategies, according to the consumers, were discounting healthy food more often and applying a lower VAT (Value Added Tax) rate on healthy food. Low-income consumers differ in their preferences for pricing strategies. Since price is more important for low-income consumers we recommend mainly focusing on their preferences and needs.

  14. Modeling the Effect of Oil Price on Global Fertilizer Prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P-Y. Chen (Ping-Yu); C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); C-C. Chen (Chi-Chung); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThe main purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effect of crude oil price on global fertilizer prices in both the mean and volatility. The endogenous structural breakpoint unit root test, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, and alternative volatility models, including the

  15. Revisiting port pricing : a proposal for seven port pricing principles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Den Berg, R.; De Langen, P.W.; Van Zuijlen, P.C.J.

    2017-01-01

    A review of seven large landlord port authorities around the world reveals a notable diversity of pricing structures. While port authorities increasingly act as commercial undertakings, port pricing often seems to be not driven by commercial considerations. In this paper, we argue that ports can be

  16. Are high oil prices a threat for the price stability?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mollerus, A.

    2000-01-01

    The high price for oil and the decreased value of the Euro increase the risks for the stability of prices. Still, the prospects for inflation are favorable for the Euro zone. Less favorable are the consequences for the Netherlands, while the inflation difference with the Euro zone appears to become bigger, in particular as a result of the new Tax regulations in the Netherlands

  17. Exploring pedestrian movement patterns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Orellana, D.A.

    2012-01-01

    The main objective of this thesis is to develop an approach for exploring, analysing and interpreting movement patterns of pedestrians interacting with the environment. This objective is broken down in sub-objectives related to four research questions. A case study of the movement of visitors in a

  18. [Dance/Movement Therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenichel, Emily, Ed.

    1994-01-01

    This newsletter theme issue focuses on dance, play, and movement therapy for infants and toddlers with disabilities. Individual articles are: "Join My Dance: The Unique Movement Style of Each Infant and Toddler Can Invite Communication, Expression and Intervention" (Suzi Tortora); "Dynamic Play Therapy: An Integrated Expressive Arts Approach to…

  19. Dynamics of human movement

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koopman, Hubertus F.J.M.

    2010-01-01

    The part of (bio)mechanics that studies the interaction of forces on the human skeletal system and its effect on the resulting movement is called rigid body dynamics. Some basic concepts are presented: A mathematical formulation to describe human movement and how this relates on the mechanical loads

  20. The oil barrel price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blondy, J.; Papon, P.

    2009-01-01

    This paper proposes an overview and a prospective glance on the oil barrel price. It indicates the relevant indicators: Brent quotation, euro/dollar parity, economic activity indicators, world oil consumption distribution, crude oil production, refining capacity. It briefly presents the involved stake holders: crude oil producers, oil refiners, refined product dealers, and the OPEC. It discusses the major retrospective trends: evolution in relationship with geopolitical events and energy policies, strong correlation between oil demand and economic growth, prevalence of OPEC, growing importance of national oil companies. An emerging trend is noticed: growing role of emerging countries on the crude market. Some prospective issues are discussed: duration and intensity of economic recession, separation between economic growth and energy consumption, pace and ambition level of policies of struggle against climate change, exploitable resources, and geopolitical hazards. Four evolution hypotheses are discussed

  1. Airport Pricing Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pels, Eric; Verhoef, Erik T.

    2003-01-01

    Conventional economic wisdom suggests that congestion pricing would be an appropriate response to cope with the growing congestion levels currently experienced at many airports. Several characteristics of aviation markets, however, may make naive congestion prices equal to the value of marginal travel delays a non-optimal response. This paper has developed a model of airport pricing that captures a number of these features. The model in particular reflects that airlines typically have market power and are engaged in oligopolistic competition at different sub-markets; that part of external travel delays that aircraft impose are internal to an operator and hence should not be accounted for in congestion tolls. We presented an analytical treatment for a simple bi-nodal symmetric network, which through the use of 'hyper-networks' would be readily applicable to dynamic problems (in discrete time) such as peak - off-peak differences, and some numerical exercises for the same symmetric network, which was only designed to illustrate the possible comparative static impacts of tolling, in addition to marginal equilibrium conditions as could be derived for the general model specification. Some main conclusions are that second-best optimal tolls are typically lower than what would be suggested by congestion costs alone and may even be negative, and that the toll as derived by Brueckner (2002) may not lead to an increase in total welfare. While Brueckner (2002) has made clear that congestion tolls on airports may be smaller than expected when congestion costs among aircraft are internal for a firm, our analysis adds to this that a further downward adjustment may be in order due to market power. The presence of market power (which causes prices to exceed marginal costs) may cause the pure congestion toll to be suboptimal, because the resulting decrease in demand is too high (the pure congestion tall does not take into account the decrease in consumer surplus). The various

  2. Prices versus Quantities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Lars Gårn; Jensen, Frank

    illustrate that this result does not generalise to a search fishery, where marginal costs are allowed to depend on harvest. Hansen et al (2008) study a fishery where non-compliance with regulations is a problem. When the regulator is uncertain about non-compliance (compliance uncertainty), then landing fees......Weitzman (2002) studies the regulation of a fishery characterised by constant marginal harvest costs and shows that price regulation performs better than quantity regulation when the regulator is uncertain about the biological reproduction function (ecological uncertainty). Here, we initially...... are the preferred type of regulation, and Hansen et al (2008) find that this result does generalise to a search fishery where marginal costs depend on harvest. In this paper, we simulate a stochastic stock-recruitment model for the Danish cod fishery in the Kategat capturing both ecological and compliance...

  3. Transfer Pricing and FDI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patricia-Sabina Macelaru

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available FDI analysis is usually performed within the frame of the win-win hypothesis. However, we believe that certain circumstances (MNEs following their own business objectives, lack of appropriate regulations, non-observance of the arm’s length principle may generate disproportionate advantages at the level of FDI stakeholders. The disequilibrium between reinvested profits and repatriated profits may be viewed as a proof of such disproportionate advantages of stakeholders involved in FDI. In addition to figures showing the comparison between reinvested and repatriated profits, as well as the way in which such indicators vary e.g. in case of abnormal business conditions (global economy collapse, we try to show that lack/misuse of transfer pricing regulations may generate even more disequilibrium, the MNEs using intra-group transactions as an additional way of repatriating non-taxable/low tax profits.

  4. Road pricing with complications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Van Dender, Kurt

    2013-01-01

    The rationale for congestion charges is that by internalising the marginal external congestion cost, they restore efficiency in the transport market. In the canonical model underlying this view, congestion is a static phenomenon, users are taken to be homogenous, there is no travel time risk......, and a highly stylised model of congestion is used. The simple analysis also ignores that real pricing schemes are only rough approximations to ideal systems and that inefficiencies in related markets potentially affect the case for congestion charges. The canonical model tends to understate the marginal...... external congestion cost because it ignores user heterogeneity and trip timing inefficiencies. With respect to the relevance of interactions between congestion and congestion charges and tax distortions and distributional concerns, recent insights point out that there is no general case for modifying...

  5. Why fuel prices differ

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rietveld, P.; Woudenberg, S. van

    2005-01-01

    Fuel taxes differ largely between countries. This paper reviews a number of considerations from the theory of public finance that may explain these differences. Based on a multiple regression model, we find for tax competition in Europe that small countries tend to be more aggressive than large countries by charging lower fuel taxes to attract customers from neighbouring countries. There is strong evidence that fuel is just considered as one of the many sources for government expenditure: as the share of government expenditure in GDP is higher, the fuel tax tends to be higher. No support is found for the hypothesis that fuel taxes are higher in countries where externality problems are more severe (proxied by car density of the country). In this respect, the normative literature on pricing externalities has found little support in the realities of transport policy. (author)

  6. The Pricing of natural gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nese, Gjermund

    2004-11-01

    The report focuses on the pricing of natural gas. The motivation has been the wish of the Norwegian authorities to increase the use of natural gas and that this should follow market conditions. The pricing of gas occurs at present in various ways in the different markets. The report identifies to main factors behind the pricing. 1) The type of market i.e. how far the liberalization of the gas markets has gone in the various countries. 2) The development within the regulation, climate and tax policies. The gas markets are undergoing as the energy markets in general, a liberalization process where the traditional monopoly based market structures are replaced by markets based on competition. There are great differences in the liberalization development of the various countries, which is reflected in the various pricing principles applied for the trade of gas in the countries. The analysis shows that the net-back-pricing is predominant in some countries i.e. that the price is in various ways indexed towards and follow the development of the price of alternative energy carriers so that the gas may be able to compete. The development towards trade places for gas where the pricing is based on offer and demand is already underway. As the liberalization of the European gas markets progresses it is expected that the gas price will be determined increasingly at spot markets instead of through bilateral agreements between monopolistic corporations. The development within the regulation, climate and tax policies and to what extent this may influence the gas prices in the future, are also studied. There seem to be effects that may pull in both directions but it is evident that these political variables will influence the gas pricing in the international market to a large extent and thereby also the future internal natural gas market

  7. Pricing effects on food choices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    French, Simone A

    2003-03-01

    Individual dietary choices are primarily influenced by such considerations as taste, cost, convenience and nutritional value of foods. The current obesity epidemic has been linked to excessive consumption of added sugars and fat, as well as to sedentary lifestyles. Fat and sugar provide dietary energy at very low cost. Food pricing and marketing practices are therefore an essential component of the eating environment. Recent studies have applied economic theories to changing dietary behavior. Price reduction strategies promote the choice of targeted foods by lowering their cost relative to alternative food choices. Two community-based intervention studies used price reductions to promote the increased purchase of targeted foods. The first study examined lower prices and point-of-purchase promotion on sales of lower fat vending machine snacks in 12 work sites and 12 secondary schools. Price reductions of 10%, 25% and 50% on lower fat snacks resulted in an increase in sales of 9%, 39% and 93%, respectively, compared with usual price conditions. The second study examined the impact of a 50% price reduction on fresh fruit and baby carrots in two secondary school cafeterias. Compared with usual price conditions, price reductions resulted in a four-fold increase in fresh fruit sales and a two-fold increase in baby carrot sales. Both studies demonstrate that price reductions are an effective strategy to increase the purchase of more healthful foods in community-based settings such as work sites and schools. Results were generalizable across various food types and populations. Reducing prices on healthful foods is a public health strategy that should be implemented through policy initiatives and industry collaborations.

  8. An analysis of the oil prices: stationary and forecasting models; Uma analise dos precos do petroleo no mercado internacional: estacionaridade e modelos de previsao

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salles, Andre A. de; Veiga, Iago E. B. da Costa; Machado, Rafael G.T. [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    The movements of the oil prices in the international market are important for any planning, so the study of this variable is relevant for the investment and financing decisions of the production. The purpose of this work is to study the time series of the quotations of the spot prices of the crude oil in the international market. The objectives of this work are to study the movements of time series of the prices, and the returns, of the crude oil prices gives emphasis in the stationary. The other focus of this work is to develop forecasting models for the oil prices, or the returns of the oil prices. The selected sample was of the daily quotation of the prices of types WTI and Brent, for the period from January 2005 to April 2007. (author)

  9. Theory of Financial Risk and Derivative Pricing - 2nd Edition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe; Potters, Marc

    2003-12-01

    Foreword; Preface; 1. Probability theory: basic notions; 2. Maximum and addition of random variables; 3. Continuous time limit, Ito calculus and path integrals; 4. Analysis of empirical data; 5. Financial products and financial markets; 6. Statistics of real prices: basic results; 7. Non-linear correlations and volatility fluctuations; 8. Skewness and price-volatility correlations; 9. Cross-correlations; 10. Risk measures; 11. Extreme correlations and variety; 12. Optimal portfolios; 13. Futures and options: fundamental concepts; 14. Options: hedging and residual risk; 15. Options: the role of drift and correlations; 16. Options: the Black and Scholes model; 17. Options: some more specific problems; 18. Options: minimum variance Monte-Carlo; 19. The yield curve; 20. Simple mechanisms for anomalous price statistics; Index of most important symbols; Index.

  10. Prediction future asset price which is non-concordant with the historical distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seong, Ng Yew; Hin, Pooi Ah

    2015-12-01

    This paper attempts to predict the major characteristics of the future asset price which is non-concordant with the distribution estimated from the price today and the prices on a large number of previous days. The three major characteristics of the i-th non-concordant asset price are the length of the interval between the occurrence time of the previous non-concordant asset price and that of the present non-concordant asset price, the indicator which denotes that the non-concordant price is extremely small or large by its values -1 and 1 respectively, and the degree of non-concordance given by the negative logarithm of the probability of the left tail or right tail of which one of the end points is given by the observed future price. The vector of three major characteristics of the next non-concordant price is modelled to be dependent on the vectors corresponding to the present and l - 1 previous non-concordant prices via a 3-dimensional conditional distribution which is derived from a 3(l + 1)-dimensional power-normal mixture distribution. The marginal distribution for each of the three major characteristics can then be derived from the conditional distribution. The mean of the j-th marginal distribution is an estimate of the value of the j-th characteristics of the next non-concordant price. Meanwhile, the 100(α/2) % and 100(1 - α/2) % points of the j-th marginal distribution can be used to form a prediction interval for the j-th characteristic of the next non-concordant price. The performance measures of the above estimates and prediction intervals indicate that the fitted conditional distribution is satisfactory. Thus the incorporation of the distribution of the characteristics of the next non-concordant price in the model for asset price has a good potential of yielding a more realistic model.

  11. Oil price shocks and economy: an open question

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Di Marzio, G.

    2006-01-01

    During the 1970s and 1980s advanced oil importing economies faced the adverse effects of oil supply disruptions with abrupt energy price rise, followed by sensible business cycle inversions and stagflation. The negative effects of the sharp energy price increase were amplified by factors such the induced costly resources reallocation between labour and capital, and between sectors of activity; rising uncertainty discouraging investments, and income redistribution consequences on aggregate demands After a shock the economic system generally adjusts in favour of less energy intensive industries; this leads pauses in production as part of the existing capital stock become obsolete, and causes resources under utilization. Since the 1970s a number of economists have been sceptical about why even large price shocks in a resource that accounts for less than 3-4 pct. of global GDP could cause losses of magnitude as those experienced in most advanced economies. They believe that monetary policy has played a role in generating the observed negative correlation between oil prices and economic activity, and question whether the post-oil-shock recessions were attributable to the oil price shocks themselves or to the monetary policy responding to these shocks. Empirical research largely shows a primary responsibility of large price shocks and major oil-supply disruptions on recessionary movements of GDP. Energy prices have risen sharply since 2003, driven by strengthening global demand; market fundamentals suggest that a considerable fraction of recent hikes will be permanent and current price levels remain credible. With limited spare capacity, the medium term oil supply-demand balance is expected to remain tight, and the price probably near current levels. Today' s high oil prices reflect the effects of sustained energy demand trends and, jointly, oil industry under investment during and after the low price era of the 1990s. The apparent moderate macro economic effects of the

  12. THE NEW ERA OF FINANCIAL INNOVATION: THE DETERMINANTS OF BITCOIN’S PRICE

    OpenAIRE

    Sukamulja, Sukmawati; Sikora, Cornelia Olivia

    2018-01-01

    Financial innovation has entered a new era in which a digitalized system and cryptocurrency have been created. This paper examines the factors that influence the price movement of bitcoin. This is not a legal currency in Indonesia; the Indonesian government has not made any regulations legalizing bitcoin’s use, but it has also not issued any new laws to prohibit the trade in bitcoins and other digital currencies. The demand for, and price growth of, bitcoin are interesting matters to study, e...

  13. An empirical examination of restructured electricity prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knittel, C.R.; Roberts, M.R.

    2005-01-01

    We present an empirical analysis of restructured electricity prices. We study the distributional and temporal properties of the price process in a non-parametric framework, after which we parametrically model the price process using several common asset price specifications from the asset-pricing literature, as well as several less conventional models motivated by the peculiarities of electricity prices. The findings reveal several characteristics unique to electricity prices including several deterministic components of the price series at different frequencies. An 'inverse leverage effect' is also found, where positive shocks to the price series result in larger increases in volatility than negative shocks. We find that forecasting performance in dramatically improved when we incorporate features of electricity prices not commonly modelled in other asset prices. Our findings have implications for how empiricists model electricity prices, as well as how theorists specify models of energy pricing. (author)

  14. Classifying Returns as Extreme

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Charlotte

    2014-01-01

    I consider extreme returns for the stock and bond markets of 14 EU countries using two classification schemes: One, the univariate classification scheme from the previous literature that classifies extreme returns for each market separately, and two, a novel multivariate classification scheme tha...

  15. Housing Price Volatility and Econometrics

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sunega, Petr; Lux, Martin; Zemčík, Petr

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 1, č. 2 (2014), s. 70-78 ISSN 2336-2839 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP404/12/1446 Institutional support: RVO:68378025 ; RVO:67985998 Keywords : econometrics * housing prices * price bubbles Subject RIV: AO - Sociology, Demography

  16. Market, trading and coal price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muller, J.C.; Cornot-Gandolphe, S.; Labrunie, L.; Lemoine, St.; Vandijck, M.

    2006-01-01

    The coal world experienced a true upheaval in the past five years World coal consumption went up 28 % between 2000 and 2005, as a result of the strong growth in Chinese demand. The growth should continue in the coming years: electrical plant builders' orders are mainly for coal. The regained interest in coal is based on the constraints experienced by competing energies (increase in oil and natural gas prices, geopolitical uncertainties, supply difficulties) and by the abundant reserves of coal in the world and the competitiveness of its price. The strong growth in world coal demand comes with a change in rules governing steam coal trading. While long term bilateral agreements were most common until the late nineties, there has been a true revolution in coal marketing since 2000: spot contracts, stock exchange emergence and futures contracts, price indexes. In a few years, the steam coal market has become a true commodities market, overtaking many more goods. The price of coal has also gone through strong variations since 2003. Whereas the price had been stable for decades, in 2004 the strong increase in China' s demand for coal and iron ore resulting in transport shortage, caused a strong increase in CAF coal prices. Since then, prices have gone down, but remain higher than the Eighties and Nineties levels. In spite of the increase, coal remains available at more competitive prices than its competing energies. (authors)

  17. Behavioral heterogeneity in stock prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boswijk, H.P.; Hommes, C.H.; Manzan, S.

    2007-01-01

    We estimate a dynamic asset pricing model characterized by heterogeneous boundedly rational agents. The fundamental value of the risky asset is publicly available to all agents, but they have different beliefs about the persistence of deviations of stock prices from the fundamental benchmark. An

  18. The true Price of Chocolate?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ingram, V.J.; Chocoloney, T.

    2015-01-01

    Chocolate prices generally do not incorporate many of the environmental and social externalities, costs which are incurred as the main ingredients such as cocoa and sugar move from farms, to factories to consumers. Nor do prices reflect the benefits of non-conventional production and alternative

  19. Is macroeconomic announcement news priced?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Goeij, Peter; Hu, Jiehui; Werker, Bas

    2016-01-01

    We test whether news contained in macroeconomic announcements (MEAs) is priced in the cross-section of stock returns. When including news on a set of widely followed individual macroeconomic fundamentals in the cross-section of stock returns, estimates of their prices of risk are consistent with the

  20. Price satisfaction and producer loyalty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mutonyi, Sarah; Beukel, Karin; Gyau, Amos

    2016-01-01

    Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate which dimensions of price satisfaction influence producers’ trust in buyers and assess the mediating role of such trust in the relationship between price satisfaction and producer loyalty in fresh fruit supply chains. Design/methodology/approach......Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate which dimensions of price satisfaction influence producers’ trust in buyers and assess the mediating role of such trust in the relationship between price satisfaction and producer loyalty in fresh fruit supply chains. Design...... reliability, and relative price are dimensions of price satisfaction that affect producers’ trust in the buyer. Moreover, trust between the producer and the buyer is found to be a strong mediator between price satisfaction and producer loyalty. The findings support recent studies about trust and its mediating...... between the multi-dimensional nature of price satisfaction and producer loyalty with trust as a mediating variable in the business-to-business (B2B) context. Although B2B relationships have been shown to be of great importance for smallholders in enhancing business performance with their buyers, little...

  1. Price as indicator for quality?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jørgen Ulff-Møller; Hansen, Jørgen Drud

    This paper examines the relation between price differences and quality differences in an oligopoly model with intra-industry trade, where goods are horizontally as well as vertically differentiated. The analysis demonstrates that the ratio of prices is not linked to the ratio of qualities in any...

  2. Strammere retningslinjer om transfer pricing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rossing, Christian Plesner

    2015-01-01

    Transfer pricing vedrører prisfastsættelsen på transaktioner, der foregår mellem koncernforbundne selskaber og er fortsat et tema, der nyder stort fokus hos både multinationale koncerner og skattemyndigheder. For den multinationale koncern er transfer pricing i høj grad en aktivitet, der består i...

  3. Understanding international commodity price fluctuations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arezki, Rabah; Loungani, Prakash; van der Ploeg, Rick; Venables, Anthony J.

    An overview is provided of recent work on commodity prices, focusing on three themes: (i) "financialization" of commodity markets--commodities being considered by financial investors as a distinct asset class, (ii) trends and forecasts of commodity prices, and (iii) fracking-a shorthand for the

  4. Regime jumps in electricity prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Huisman (Ronald); R.J. Mahieu (Ronald)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractMany countries are liberalizing their energy markets. Participants in these markets are exposed to market risk due to the characteristics of electricity price dynamics. Electricity prices are known to be mean-reverting very volatile and subject to frequent spikes. Models that describe

  5. Oil price and the dollar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coudert, V.; Mignon, V.; Penot, A.

    2007-01-01

    Oil prices and the United States (US) dollar exchange rate are driving the evolution of the world economy. This paper investigated long-term relationships between oil prices and the US effective exchange rate. An empirical study was performed on oil prices and the dollar real effective exchange rate between 1974 to 2004. The impact of the dollar exchange rate was also explored, and the effects of oil prices on supply and demand were considered. A dynamic partial equilibrium framework study was evaluated in order to compare how other countries used revenues from oil exports in dollars. The study showed that both variables had similar evolutions when price fluctuations were low. Strong increases in the dollar were associated with lower oil prices. However, adjustment speeds of the dollar real effective exchange rate was slow. Co-integration and causality tests showed that oil prices influenced the exchange rate, and that the link between the 2 variables was transmitted through the country's net foreign asset position. It was concluded that higher oil prices improved US net foreign asset position in relation to other countries, and had a positive impact on dollar appreciation. 24 refs., 6 tabs., 1 fig

  6. Option price and market instability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baaquie, Belal E.; Yu, Miao

    2017-04-01

    An option pricing formula, for which the price of an option depends on both the value of the underlying security as well as the velocity of the security, has been proposed in Baaquie and Yang (2014). The FX (foreign exchange) options price was empirically studied in Baaquie et al., (2014), and it was found that the model in general provides an excellent fit for all strike prices with a fixed model parameters-unlike the Black-Scholes option price Hull and White (1987) that requires the empirically determined implied volatility surface to fit the option data. The option price proposed in Baaquie and Cao Yang (2014) did not fit the data during the crisis of 2007-2008. We make a hypothesis that the failure of the option price to fit data is an indication of the market's large deviation from its near equilibrium behavior due to the market's instability. Furthermore, our indicator of market's instability is shown to be more accurate than the option's observed volatility. The market prices of the FX option for various currencies are studied in the light of our hypothesis.

  7. Deriving inflation forecasts from government bond prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kožul Nataša

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In financial research and practice, it is widely accepted that nominal interest rates derived from the prices of various financial products of different maturities comprise of corresponding real interest rates and inflation. While extensive research has been conducted on the relationship between these three variables, estimation of their levels is still largely based on the industry surveys and market data. As this information only indicates the current expectations of interest rate and inflation movements over time, a number of caveats should be noted when interpreting such measures. In the US and the UK, where the government bond markets are the largest and most active, a comparative analysis between conventional government bonds and those whose yield is linked to inflation provides a measure of inflation expectations. However, as such analyses implicitly assume that investment in government bonds is virtually risk free, it is questionable whether the derived estimates are of any value in current economic conditions. Moreover, this approach cannot be generalized to other countries, where number of traded products from which any relationship between interest rates and inflation can be determined is limited and different economic conditions prevail. Thus, this paper aims to present an overview of the methodologies used to forecast inflation rates from government bond prices, drawing attention to the key assumptions and limitations of these approaches. The goal is to ascertain their accuracy, and thus their value in determining the real yields of various interest rate-linked products.

  8. Economics of National Waste Terminal Storage Spent Fuel Pricing Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1978-05-01

    The methodology for equitably pricing commercial nuclear spent fuel management is developed, and the results of four sample calculations are presented. The spent fuel management program analyzed places encapsulated spent fuel in bedded salt while maintaining long-term retrievability. System design was reasonable but not optimum. When required, privately-owned Away From Reactor (AFR) storage is provided and the spent fuel placed in AFR storage is eventually transported to final storage. Applicable Research and Development and Government Overhead are included. The cost of each component by year was estimated from the most recent applicable data source available. These costs were input to the pricing methodology to establish a one-time charge whose present value exactly recovered the present value of the expenditure flow. The four cases exercised were combinations of a high and a low quantity of spent fuel managed, with a single repository (venture) or a multiple repository (campaign) approach to system financial structure. The price for spent fuel management calculated ranged from 116 to 152 dollars (1978) per kilogram charged initially to the reactor. The effect of spent fuel receiving rate on price is illustrated by the fact that the extremes of price did not coincide with the cases having the extremes of undiscounted cost. These prices for spent fuel management are comparable in magnitude to other fuel cycle costs. The range of variation is small because of compensating effects, i.e., additional costs for high early deliveries (AFR and transportation) versus lower present value of future revenue for later delivery cases. The methodology contains numerous conservative assumptions, provisions for contingencies, and covers the complete set of spent fuel management expenses

  9. Is College Pricing Power Pro-Cyclical?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altringer, Levi; Summers, Jeffrey

    2015-01-01

    We define pricing power as a college's ability to increase its net tuition revenue by raising its sticker-price for tuition. The greater is the positive effect of sticker-price increases on net tuition revenue, the greater is the pricing power. We gauge variation in the pricing power of private, non-profit baccalaureate colleges by estimating this…

  10. Western Canada : changing pricing dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frank, B.

    1998-01-01

    Natural gas supply and demand trends in Western Canada are reviewed in a series of overhead viewgraphs. Production versus pipeline capacity, required gas well completions in the WCSB to meet local demand and fill export pipeline capacity to year 2005, NYMEX and AECO price trends during 1995-2000, and the question of what will happen to prices with additional pipeline capacity to the U.S. Midwest were summarized. The best guess is that Midwest prices will need to be high enough to attract marginal supplies from the Gulf, i.e. prices have be around the Henry Hub + five cents/ mmbtu. The new Canadian pipelines, (Northern Border and Alliance) will lower Midwest prices somewhat, but the impact will be modest. Assuming that additional planned pipeline expansion come on-stream, the pressure to expand east of Chicago will be considerable. tabs., figs

  11. PRICES - PREREQUISITE OF MARKET DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    VĂDUVA MARIA

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Prices are the key points of transfer and interactions. Balance means knowing the real demand and adapting thier supply at its level and structure. In studying the prices, the knowledge of economic content and the mechanism of their formation in exchange process is a crucial prerequisites to accomplish the transition from theoretical foundations to practical foundations of concrete modalities, of pricing techniques. If demand can assimilate the production of considered enterprises, then the manufacturer is concerned to determine that level of production for which will get maximum profit, profitability threshold, elasticity of supply compared with the price, to choose the best outlet. Price depends on the intersection of demand and supply

  12. Pricing of temperature index insurance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Che Mohd Imran Che Taib

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to study pricing of weather insurance contracts based on temperature indices. Three different pricing methods are analysed: the classical burn approach, index modelling and temperature modelling. We take the data from Malaysia as our empirical case. Our results show that there is a significant difference between the burn and index pricing approaches on one hand, and the temperature modelling method on the other. The latter approach is pricing the insurance contract using a seasonal autoregressive time series model for daily temperature variations, and thus provides a precise probabilistic model for the fine structure of temperature evolution. We complement our pricing analysis by an investigation of the profit/loss distribution from the contract, in the perspective of both the insured and the insurer.

  13. Ethical aspect price decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grubor Aleksandar

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Price decision making in a marketing program framework creatings is a complicated and delicated part of marketing management, especially to keep in sight culminating of mass external factors. In a market economies price policy as a marketing mix instrument rarely is regulated by the law, which opening the ethical aspect questions of price decision making process. The ethics in the price decision making means consideration of the inner law of the individual (marketing managers and/or consumers, whose irreverence does not entail any juridical sanctions, rather its application is sanctioned by the self - awareness. The acception and stability of the ethical aspect price decision making are determined by the characteristic of selected marketing environment.

  14. Agricultural Commodities and Crude Oil Prices: An Empirical Investigation of Their Relationship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleni Zafeiriou

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Within the last few decades, the extended use of biodiesel and bioethanol has established interlinkages between energy markets and agricultural commodity markets. The present work examines the bivariate relationships of crude oil–corn and crude oil–soybean futures prices with the assistance of the ARDL cointegration approach. Our findings confirm that crude oil prices affect the prices of agricultural products used in the production of biodiesel, as well as of ethanol, validating the interaction of energy and agricultural commodity markets. The practical value of the present work is that the findings provide policy makers with insight into the interlinkages between agricultural and energy markets to promote biodiesel or bioethanol by affecting crude oil prices. The novelty of the present work stands on the use of futures prices that incorporate all available information and thus are more appropriate to identify supply and demand shocks and price spillovers than real prices. Finally, the period of study includes extremely low, as well as extremely high, crude oil prices and the results illustrate that biofuels cannot be substituted for crude oil and protect economies from energy volatility.

  15. Does China factor matter? An econometric analysis of international crude oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Gang; Zhang, Yue-Jun

    2014-01-01

    Whether China’s crude oil imports are the culprit of oil price volatility these years has not been quantitatively confirmed. Therefore, this paper empirically investigates the role of China’s crude oil net imports in Brent price changes from October 2005 to November 2013 based on an econometric analysis. The results indicate that, during the sample period, China’s crude oil imports do not significantly affect Brent price changes, no matter in the long run or short run. Therefore, the blame for China’s crude oil imports to cause the dramatic fluctuations of international oil price has no solid evidence. Also, there exists significant uni-directional causality running from the Brent price to China's crude oil imports at the 5% level. Besides, the response of the Brent price to China's crude oil imports is found positive but slight, and the Brent price responds more significantly to US dollar exchange rate and OECD commercial inventory than to China’s crude oil imports in the short run. Finally, the contribution of China's crude oil imports to Brent price movement is about 10%, which is less than that of US dollar exchange rate but larger than that of Indian crude oil imports or OECD commercial inventory. - Highlights: • The paper detects the role of China’s crude oil imports in Brent oil price changes. • China’s crude imports do not matter for oil prices in the long run or short run. • The blame for China’s crude imports on oil price changes has no solid evidence. • Significant causality runs from Brent prices to China's crude oil net imports. • China's crude imports contribute less to Brent prices than US dollar exchange rate

  16. Multivariate EMD-Based Modeling and Forecasting of Crude Oil Price

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaijian He

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Recent empirical studies reveal evidence of the co-existence of heterogeneous data characteristics distinguishable by time scale in the movement crude oil prices. In this paper we propose a new multivariate Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD-based model to take advantage of these heterogeneous characteristics of the price movement and model them in the crude oil markets. Empirical studies in benchmark crude oil markets confirm that more diverse heterogeneous data characteristics can be revealed and modeled in the projected time delayed domain. The proposed model demonstrates the superior performance compared to the benchmark models.

  17. Islamic Puritanism Movements in Indonesia as Transnational Movements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benny Baskara

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Islamic puritanism movements are the movements compelling to return to the teachings of Quran and Sunnah, as the pure teachings of Islam and abandon even abolish other teachings outside the teachings of Quran and Sunnah. The movements of Islamic puritanism can be considered as transnational movements because they spread their teachings and ideologies, create organizations, networks, and provide financial supports across nations. This paper describes Islamic puritanism movements in Indonesia and their transnational connections. Some Islamic puritanism movements in Indonesia can be considered as part of Islamic transnational movements, in which most of the movements are centered in the Middle East. In Indonesia, Islamic puritanism movements firstly appeared in the beginning of the nineteenth century, called Padri movement in West Sumatra. It was then continued to the emergence of Islamic organizations in the twentieth century. Recently, Islamic puritanism movements in Indonesia mostly take form as Salafism-Wahabism movements.

  18. World oil prices, precious metal prices and macroeconomy in Turkey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soytas, Ugur; Sari, Ramazan; Hammoudeh, Shawkat; Hacihasanoglu, Erk

    2009-01-01

    We examine the long- and short-run transmissions of information between the world oil price, Turkish interest rate, Turkish lira-US dollar exchange rate, and domestic spot gold and silver price. We find that the world oil price has no predictive power of the precious metal prices, the interest rate or the exchange rate market in Turkey. The results also show that the Turkish spot precious metals, exchange rate and bond markets do not also provide information that would help improve the forecasts of world oil prices in the long run. The findings suggest that domestic gold is also considered a safe haven in Turkey during devaluation of the Turkish lira, as it is globally. It is interesting to note that there does not seem to be any significant influence of developments in the world oil markets on Turkish markets in the short run either. However, transitory positive initial impacts of innovations in oil prices on gold and silver markets are observed. The short-run price transmissions between the world oil market and the Turkish precious metal markets have implications for policy makers in emerging markets and both local and global investors in the precious metals market and the oil market.

  19. The Irish Women's Movement

    OpenAIRE

    Cullen, Pauline

    2015-01-01

    Ireland’s long history of patriarchy is matched by the ongoing evolution of its women’s movements. Today’s complex, transnational feminism finds its precursor in the colonial era. The first wave of the Irish women’s movement dates from the mid-19th century, with the franchise secured for women in 1918 while still under British colonial rule. First-wave feminists played a role in the nationalist movement, but their demands were sidelined later, during the construction of a conserva...

  20. Music and movement

    OpenAIRE

    Nasev, Lence

    2012-01-01

    Rhythm is one of the fundamental elements without which music would not exist. In plays with singing, a child learns to synchronize its movements with the rhythm of music from a very early age. The skill of movement plays a major role in the learning of music and thus deserves an important place in the school curriculum. In this paper, an overview is made of the most important music pedagogues who introduced movement, and at the same time perceived its importance in learning musical conte...