WorldWideScience

Sample records for extreme heat days

  1. Mortality on extreme heat days using official thresholds in Spain: a multi-city time series analysis

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    Tobias Aurelio

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The 2003 heat wave had a high impact on mortality in Europe, which made necessary to develop heat health watch warning systems. In Spain this was carried-out by the Ministry of Health in 2004, being based on exceeding of city-specific simultaneous thresholds of minimum and maximum daily temperatures. The aim of this study is to assess effectiveness of the official thresholds established by the Ministry of Health for each provincial capital city, by quantifying and comparing the short-term effects of above-threshold days on total daily mortality. Methods Total daily mortality and minimum and maximum temperatures for the 52 capitals of province in Spain were collected during summer months (June to September for the study period 1995-2004. Data was analysed using GEE for Poisson regression. Relative Risk (RR of total daily mortality was quantified for the current day of official thresholds exceeded. Results The number of days in which the thresholds were exceeded show great inconsistency, with provinces with great number of exceeded days adjacent to provinces that did not exceed or rarely exceeded. The average overall excess risk of dying during an extreme heat day was about 25% (RR = 1.24; 95% confidence interval (CI = [1.19-1.30]. Relative risks showed a significant heterogeneity between cities (I2 = 54.9%. Western situation and low mean summer temperatures were associated with higher relative risks, suggesting thresholds may have been set too high in these areas. Conclusions This study confirmed that extreme heat days have a considerable impact on total daily mortality in Spain. Official thresholds gave consistent relative risk in the large capital cities. However, in some other cities thresholds

  2. Acclimatization to extreme heat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warner, M. E.; Ganguly, A. R.; Bhatia, U.

    2017-12-01

    Heat extremes throughout the globe, as well as in the United States, are expected to increase. These heat extremes have been shown to impact human health, resulting in some of the highest levels of lives lost as compared with similar natural disasters. But in order to inform decision makers and best understand future mortality and morbidity, adaptation and mitigation must be considered. Defined as the ability for individuals or society to change behavior and/or adapt physiologically, acclimatization encompasses the gradual adaptation that occurs over time. Therefore, this research aims to account for acclimatization to extreme heat by using a hybrid methodology that incorporates future air conditioning use and installation patterns with future temperature-related time series data. While previous studies have not accounted for energy usage patterns and market saturation scenarios, we integrate such factors to compare the impact of air conditioning as a tool for acclimatization, with a particular emphasis on mortality within vulnerable communities.

  3. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) about Extreme Heat

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    ... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

  4. Spatial vulnerability of Australian urban populations to extreme heat events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loughnan, Margaret; Tapper, Nigel; Phan, Thu; Lynch, Kellie; McInnes, Judith

    2013-04-01

    Extreme heat events pose a risk to the health of all individuals, especially the elderly and the chronically ill, and are associated with an increased demand for healthcare services. In order to address this problem, policy makers' need information about temperatures above which mortality and morbidity of the exposed population is likely to increase, where the vulnerable groups in the community are located, and how the risks from extreme heat events are likely to change in the future. This study identified threshold temperatures for all Australian capital cities, developed a spatial index of population vulnerability, and used climate model output to predict changes in the number of days exceeding temperature thresholds in the future, as well as changes in risk related to changes in urban density and an ageing population. The study has shown that daily maximum and minimum temperatures from the Bureau of Meteorology forecasts can be used to calculate temperature thresholds for heat alert days. The key risk factors related to adverse health outcomes were found to be areas with intense urban heat islands, areas with higher proportions of older people, and areas with ethnic communities. Maps of spatial vulnerability have been developed to provide information to assist emergency managers, healthcare professionals, and ancillary services develop heatwave preparedness plans at a local scale that target vulnerable groups and address heat-related health risks. The numbers of days exceeding current heat thresholds are predicted to increase over the next 20 to 40 years in all Australian capital cities.

  5. Excess Mortality Attributable to Extreme Heat in New York City, 1997-2013.

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    Matte, Thomas D; Lane, Kathryn; Ito, Kazuhiko

    2016-01-01

    Extreme heat event excess mortality has been estimated statistically to assess impacts, evaluate heat emergency response, and project climate change risks. We estimated annual excess non-external-cause deaths associated with extreme heat events in New York City (NYC). Extreme heat events were defined as days meeting current National Weather Service forecast criteria for issuing heat advisories in NYC based on observed maximum daily heat index values from LaGuardia Airport. Outcomes were daily non-external-cause death counts for NYC residents from May through September from 1997 to 2013 (n = 337,162). The cumulative relative risk (CRR) of death associated with extreme heat events was estimated in a Poisson time-series model for each year using an unconstrained distributed lag for days 0-3 accommodating over dispersion, and adjusting for within-season trends and day of week. Attributable death counts were computed by year based on individual year CRRs. The pooled CRR per extreme heat event day was 1.11 (95%CI 1.08-1.14). The estimated annual excess non-external-cause deaths attributable to heat waves ranged from -14 to 358, with a median of 121. Point estimates of heat wave-attributable deaths were greater than 0 in all years but one and were correlated with the number of heat wave days (r = 0.81). Average excess non-external-cause deaths associated with extreme heat events were nearly 11-fold greater than hyperthermia deaths. Estimated extreme heat event-associated excess deaths may be a useful indicator of the impact of extreme heat events, but single-year estimates are currently too imprecise to identify short-term changes in risk.

  6. Extreme Ritualistic Alcohol Consumption among College Students on Game Day

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    Glassman, Tavis J.; Dodd, Virginia J.; Sheu, Jiunn-Jye; Rienzo, Barbara A.; Wagenaar, Alex C.

    2010-01-01

    Alcohol use and the related consequences associated with college football games are a serious public health issue for university communities. Objective: Examining "Extreme Ritualistic Alcohol Consumption" (ERAC), defined as consuming 10 or more drinks on game day for a male, and 8 or more drinks for a female, is the focus of this study.…

  7. Amplification of heat extremes by plant CO2 physiological forcing.

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    Skinner, Christopher B; Poulsen, Christopher J; Mankin, Justin S

    2018-03-15

    Plants influence extreme heat events by regulating land-atmosphere water and energy exchanges. The contribution of plants to changes in future heat extremes will depend on the responses of vegetation growth and physiology to the direct and indirect effects of elevated CO 2 . Here we use a suite of earth system models to disentangle the radiative versus vegetation effects of elevated CO 2 on heat wave characteristics. Vegetation responses to a quadrupling of CO 2 increase summer heat wave occurrence by 20 days or more-30-50% of the radiative response alone-across tropical and mid-to-high latitude forests. These increases are caused by CO 2 physiological forcing, which diminishes transpiration and its associated cooling effect, and reduces clouds and precipitation. In contrast to recent suggestions, our results indicate CO 2 -driven vegetation changes enhance future heat wave frequency and intensity in most vegetated regions despite transpiration-driven soil moisture savings and increases in aboveground biomass from CO 2 fertilization.

  8. Temporal changes in morality attributed to heat extremes for 57 cities in Northeast Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Whanhee; Choi, Hayon Michelle; Kim, Dahye; Honda, Yasushi; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Kim, Ho

    2018-03-01

    Recent studies have reported that heat-related mortality decreased by adaptation during decades. However, since the frequency of extreme heat events is increasing, it is difficult to conclude with certainty that the heat mortality burden is decreasing. To examine temporal changes in mortality attributed to heat extremes in Northeast Asia, we collected temperature and mortality data covering the years 1972-2012 from 57 cities of 3 countries (Taiwan, Korea, and Japan) in Northeast Asia. Poisson regression curves were fitted to the data from each city. The temporal changes in heat-mortality association were estimated with a time-varying distributed lag non-linear model. Heat extremes were defined as temperatures greater than the 97.5th percentiles of city-specific average temperatures. Attributable deaths were calculated considering temporal variations in exposure and relative risk. The estimates were then pooled through meta-analysis. The results show that the mortality risk on extreme heat days declined during the study period in all countries. However, as summer temperatures in Japan have shown more heat extremes over time, the mortality risk attributed to heat increased during 2003-2012 (0.32%) compared with 1972-1981 (0.19%). Thus, to assess the total health burden due to heat extremes related to climate change, public health strategies should focus on the temporal variation in heat-mortality association as well as changes in the distribution of heat extremes overtime. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Predictability of summer extreme precipitation days over eastern China

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    Li, Juan; Wang, Bin

    2017-08-01

    Extreme precipitation events have severe impacts on human activity and natural environment, but prediction of extreme precipitation events remains a considerable challenge. The present study aims to explore the sources of predictability and to estimate the predictability of the summer extreme precipitation days (EPDs) over eastern China. Based on the region- and season-dependent variability of EPDs, all stations over eastern China are divided into two domains: South China (SC) and northern China (NC). Two domain-averaged EPDs indices during their local high EPDs seasons (May-June for SC and July-August for NC) are therefore defined. The simultaneous lower boundary anomalies associated with each EPDs index are examined, and we find: (a) the increased EPDs over SC are related to a rapid decaying El Nino and controlled by Philippine Sea anticyclone anomalies in May-June; (b) the increased EPDs over NC are accompanied by a developing La Nina and anomalous zonal sea level pressure contrast between the western North Pacific subtropical high and East Asian low in July-August. Tracking back the origins of these boundary anomalies, one or two physically meaningful predictors are detected for each regional EPDs index. The causative relationships between the predictors and the corresponding EPDs over each region are discussed using lead-lag correlation analyses. Using these selected predictors, a set of Physics-based Empirical models is derived. The 13-year (2001-2013) independent forecast shows significant temporal correlation skills of 0.60 and 0.74 for the EPDs index of SC and NC, respectively, providing an estimation of the predictability for summer EPDs over eastern China.

  10. Identifying Population Vulnerable to Extreme Heat Events in San Jose, California.

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    Rivera, A. L.

    2016-12-01

    The extreme heat days not only make cities less comfortable for living but also they are associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Mapping studies have demonstrated spatial variability in heat vulnerability. A study conducted between 2000 and 2011 in New York City shows that deaths during heat waves was more likely to occur in black individuals, at home in census tracts which received greater public assistance. This map project intends to portray areas in San Jose California that are vulnerable to extreme heat events. The variables considered to build a vulnerability index are: land surface temperature, vegetated areas (NDVI), and people exposed to these area (population density).

  11. Extreme heat and runoff extremes in the Swiss Alps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Zappa

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available The hydrological response of Swiss river basins to the 2003 European summer heatwave was evaluated by a combined analysis of historical discharge records and specific applications of distributed hydrological modeling. In the summer of 2003, the discharge from headwater streams of the Swiss Central Plateau was only 40%–60% of the long-term average. For alpine basins runoff was about 60%–80% of the average. Glacierized basins showed the opposite behavior. According to the degree of glacierization, the average summer runoff was close or even above average. The hydrological model PREVAH was applied for the period 1982–2005. Even if the model was not calibrated for such extreme meteorological conditions, it was well able to simulate the hydrological responses of three basins. The aridity index φ describes feedbacks between hydrological and meteorological anomalies, and was adopted as an indicator of hydrological drought. The anomalies of φ and temperature in the summer of 2003 exceeded the 1982–2005 mean by more than 2 standard deviations. Catchments without glaciers showed negative correlations between φ and discharge R. In basins with about 15% glacierization, φ and R were not correlated. River basins with higher glacier percentages showed a positive correlation between φ and R. Icemelt was positively correlated with φ and reduced the variability of discharge with larger amounts of meltwater. Runoff generation from the non-glaciated sub-areas was limited by high evapotranspiration and reduced precipitation. The 2003 summer heatwave could be a precursor to similar events in the near future. Hydrological models and further data analysis will allow the identification of the most sensitive regions where heatwaves may become a recurrent natural hazard with large environmental, social and economical impacts.

  12. Prediction of length-of-day using extreme learning machine

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    Yu Lei

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Traditional artificial neural networks (ANN such as back-propagation neural networks (BPNN provide good predictions of length-of-day (LOD. However, the determination of network topology is difficult and time consuming. Therefore, we propose a new type of neural network, extreme learning machine (ELM, to improve the efficiency of LOD predictions. Earth orientation parameters (EOP C04 time-series provides daily values from International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS, which serves as our database. First, the known predictable effects that can be described by functional models—such as the effects of solid earth, ocean tides, or seasonal atmospheric variations—are removed a priori from the C04 time-series. Only the residuals after the subtraction of a priori model from the observed LOD data (i.e., the irregular and quasi-periodic variations are employed for training and predictions. The predicted LOD is the sum of a prior extrapolation model and the ELM predictions of the residuals. Different input patterns are discussed and compared to optimize the network solution. The prediction results are analyzed and compared with those obtained by other machine learning-based prediction methods, including BPNN, generalization regression neural networks (GRNN, and adaptive network-based fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS. It is shown that while achieving similar prediction accuracy, the developed method uses much less training time than other methods. Furthermore, to conduct a direct comparison with the existing prediction techniques, the mean-absolute-error (MAE from the proposed method is compared with that from the EOP prediction comparison campaign (EOP PCC. The results indicate that the accuracy of the proposed method is comparable with that of the former techniques. The implementation of the proposed method is simple.

  13. Increased hospital admissions associated with extreme-heat exposure in King County, Washington, 1990-2010.

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    Isaksen, Tania Busch; Yost, Michael G; Hom, Elizabeth K; Ren, You; Lyons, Hilary; Fenske, Richard A

    2015-01-01

    Increased morbidity and mortality have been associated with extreme heat events, particularly in temperate climates. Few epidemiologic studies have considered the impact of extreme heat events on hospitalization rates in the Pacific Northwest region. This study quantifies the historic (May to September 1990-2010) heat-morbidity relationship in the most populous Pacific Northwest County, King County, Washington. A relative risk (RR) analysis was used to explore the association between heat and all non-traumatic hospitalizations on 99th percentile heat days, whereas a time series analysis using a piecewise linear model approximation was used to estimate the effect of heat intensity on hospitalizations, adjusted for temporal trends and day of the week. A non-statistically significant 2% [95% CI: 1.02 (0.98, 1.05)] increase in hospitalization risk, on a heat day vs. a non-heat day, was noted for all-ages and all non-traumatic causes. When considering the effect of heat intensity on admissions, we found a statistically significant 1.59% (95% CI: 0.9%, 2.29%) increase in admissions per degree increase in humidex above 37.4°C. Admissions stratified by cause and age produced statistically significant results with both relative risk and time series analyses for nephritis and nephrotic syndromes, acute renal failure, and natural heat exposure hospitalizations. This study demonstrates that heat, expressed as humidex, is associated with increased hospital admissions. When stratified by age and cause of admission, the non-elderly age groups (<85 years) experience significant risk for nephritis and nephrotic syndromes, acute renal failure, natural heat exposure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and asthma hospitalizations.

  14. Radiative heat transfer in the extreme near field.

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    Kim, Kyeongtae; Song, Bai; Fernández-Hurtado, Víctor; Lee, Woochul; Jeong, Wonho; Cui, Longji; Thompson, Dakotah; Feist, Johannes; Reid, M T Homer; García-Vidal, Francisco J; Cuevas, Juan Carlos; Meyhofer, Edgar; Reddy, Pramod

    2015-12-17

    Radiative transfer of energy at the nanometre length scale is of great importance to a variety of technologies including heat-assisted magnetic recording, near-field thermophotovoltaics and lithography. Although experimental advances have enabled elucidation of near-field radiative heat transfer in gaps as small as 20-30 nanometres (refs 4-6), quantitative analysis in the extreme near field (less than 10 nanometres) has been greatly limited by experimental challenges. Moreover, the results of pioneering measurements differed from theoretical predictions by orders of magnitude. Here we use custom-fabricated scanning probes with embedded thermocouples, in conjunction with new microdevices capable of periodic temperature modulation, to measure radiative heat transfer down to gaps as small as two nanometres. For our experiments we deposited suitably chosen metal or dielectric layers on the scanning probes and microdevices, enabling direct study of extreme near-field radiation between silica-silica, silicon nitride-silicon nitride and gold-gold surfaces to reveal marked, gap-size-dependent enhancements of radiative heat transfer. Furthermore, our state-of-the-art calculations of radiative heat transfer, performed within the theoretical framework of fluctuational electrodynamics, are in excellent agreement with our experimental results, providing unambiguous evidence that confirms the validity of this theory for modelling radiative heat transfer in gaps as small as a few nanometres. This work lays the foundations required for the rational design of novel technologies that leverage nanoscale radiative heat transfer.

  15. Change in Annual Heating and Cooling Degree Days by State

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This service show changes in heating and cooling degree days by state in the US. Both layers in this service were created by comparing the first 60 years of...

  16. Day-to-night heat storage in greenhouses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seginer, Ido; Straten, van Gerrit; Beveren, van Peter J.M.

    2017-01-01

    Day-to-night heat storage in water tanks (buffers) is common practice in cold-climate greenhouses, where gas is burned during the day for carbon dioxide enrichment. In Part 1 of this study, an optimal control approach was outlined for such a system, the basic idea being that the virtual value

  17. Quantifying enhancement in aerosol radiative forcing during 'extreme aerosol days' in summer at Delhi National Capital Region, India.

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    Kumar, Sumant; Dey, Sagnik; Srivastava, Arun

    2016-04-15

    Changes in aerosol characteristics (spectral aerosol optical depth, AOD and composition) are examined during the transition from 'relatively clean' to 'extreme' aerosol days in the summer of 2012 at Delhi National Capital Region (NCR), India. AOD smaller than 0.54 (i.e. 12-year mean AOD-1σ) represents 'relatively clean' days in Delhi during the summer. 'Extreme' days are defined by the condition when AOD0.5 exceeds 12-year mean AOD+1 standard deviation (σ). Mean (±1σ) AOD increases to 1.2±0.12 along with a decrease of Angstrom Exponent from 0.54±0.09 to 0.22±0.12 during the 'extreme' days. Aerosol composition is inferred by fixing the number concentrations of various individual species through iterative tweaking when simulated (following Mie theory) AOD spectrum matches with the measured one. Contribution of coarse mode dust to aerosol mass increased from 76.8% (relatively clean) to 96.8% (extreme events), while the corresponding contributions to AOD0.5 increased from 35.0% to 70.8%. Spectrally increasing single scattering albedo (SSA) and CALIPSO aerosol sub-type information support the dominant presence of dust during the 'extreme' aerosol days. Aerosol direct radiative forcing (ADRF) at the top-of-the-atmosphere increases from 21.2Wm(-2) (relatively clean) to 56.6Wm(-2) (extreme), while the corresponding change in surface ADRF is from -99.5Wm(-2) to -153.5Wm(-2). Coarse mode dust contributes 60.3% of the observed surface ADRF during the 'extreme' days. On the contrary, 0.4% mass fraction of black carbon (BC) translates into 13.1% contribution to AOD0.5 and 33.5% to surface ADRF during the 'extreme' days. The atmospheric heating rate increased by 75.1% from 1.7K/day to 2.96K/day during the 'extreme' days. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Increased mortality associated with extreme-heat exposure in King County, Washington, 1980-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isaksen, Tania Busch; Fenske, Richard A.; Hom, Elizabeth K.; Ren, You; Lyons, Hilary; Yost, Michael G.

    2016-01-01

    Extreme heat has been associated with increased mortality, particularly in temperate climates. Few epidemiologic studies have considered the Pacific Northwest region in their analyses. This study quantified the historical (May to September, 1980-2010) heat-mortality relationship in the most populous Pacific Northwest County, King County, Washington. A relative risk (RR) analysis was used to explore the relationship between heat and all-cause mortality on 99th percentile heat days, while a time series analysis, using a piece-wise linear model fit, was used to estimate the effect of heat intensity on mortality, adjusted for temporal trends. For all ages, all causes, we found a 10 % (1.10 (95 % confidence interval (CI), 1.06, 1.14)) increase in the risk of death on a heat day versus non-heat day. When considering the intensity effect of heat on all-cause mortality, we found a 1.69 % (95 % CI, 0.69, 2.70) increase in the risk of death per unit of humidex above 36.0 °C. Mortality stratified by cause and age produced statistically significant results using both types of analyses for: all-cause, non-traumatic, circulatory, cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and diabetes causes of death. All-cause mortality was statistically significantly modified by the type of synoptic weather type. These results demonstrate that heat, expressed as humidex, is associated with increased mortality on heat days, and that risk increases with heat's intensity. While age was the only individual-level characteristic found to modify mortality risks, statistically significant increases in diabetes-related mortality for the 45-64 age group suggests that underlying health status may contribute to these risks.

  19. Extreme heat in India and anthropogenic climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Philip, Sjoukje; Kew, Sarah; van Weele, Michiel; Uhe, Peter; Otto, Friederike; Singh, Roop; Pai, Indrani; Cullen, Heidi; AchutaRao, Krishna

    2018-01-01

    On 19 May 2016 the afternoon temperature reached 51.0 °C in Phalodi in the northwest of India - a new record for the highest observed maximum temperature in India. The previous year, a widely reported very lethal heat wave occurred in the southeast, in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, killing thousands of people. In both cases it was widely assumed that the probability and severity of heat waves in India are increasing due to global warming, as they do in other parts of the world. However, we do not find positive trends in the highest maximum temperature of the year in most of India since the 1970s (except spurious trends due to missing data). Decadal variability cannot explain this, but both increased air pollution with aerosols blocking sunlight and increased irrigation leading to evaporative cooling have counteracted the effect of greenhouse gases up to now. Current climate models do not represent these processes well and hence cannot be used to attribute heat waves in this area. The health effects of heat are often described better by a combination of temperature and humidity, such as a heat index or wet bulb temperature. Due to the increase in humidity from irrigation and higher sea surface temperatures (SSTs), these indices have increased over the last decades even when extreme temperatures have not. The extreme air pollution also exacerbates the health impacts of heat. From these factors it follows that, from a health impact point of view, the severity of heat waves has increased in India. For the next decades we expect the trend due to global warming to continue but the surface cooling effect of aerosols to diminish as air quality controls are implemented. The expansion of irrigation will likely continue, though at a slower pace, mitigating this trend somewhat. Humidity will probably continue to rise. The combination will result in a strong rise in the temperature of heat waves. The high humidity will make health effects worse, whereas decreased air pollution

  20. Extreme heat in India and anthropogenic climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. J. van Oldenborgh

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available On 19 May 2016 the afternoon temperature reached 51.0 °C in Phalodi in the northwest of India – a new record for the highest observed maximum temperature in India. The previous year, a widely reported very lethal heat wave occurred in the southeast, in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, killing thousands of people. In both cases it was widely assumed that the probability and severity of heat waves in India are increasing due to global warming, as they do in other parts of the world. However, we do not find positive trends in the highest maximum temperature of the year in most of India since the 1970s (except spurious trends due to missing data. Decadal variability cannot explain this, but both increased air pollution with aerosols blocking sunlight and increased irrigation leading to evaporative cooling have counteracted the effect of greenhouse gases up to now. Current climate models do not represent these processes well and hence cannot be used to attribute heat waves in this area. The health effects of heat are often described better by a combination of temperature and humidity, such as a heat index or wet bulb temperature. Due to the increase in humidity from irrigation and higher sea surface temperatures (SSTs, these indices have increased over the last decades even when extreme temperatures have not. The extreme air pollution also exacerbates the health impacts of heat. From these factors it follows that, from a health impact point of view, the severity of heat waves has increased in India. For the next decades we expect the trend due to global warming to continue but the surface cooling effect of aerosols to diminish as air quality controls are implemented. The expansion of irrigation will likely continue, though at a slower pace, mitigating this trend somewhat. Humidity will probably continue to rise. The combination will result in a strong rise in the temperature of heat waves. The high humidity will make health effects worse

  1. Optimal scheduling for electric heat booster under day-ahead electricity and heat pricing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cai, Hanmin; You, Shi; Bindner, Henrik W.

    2017-01-01

    Multi-energy system (MES) operation calls for active management of flexible resources across energy sectors to improve efficiency and meet challenging environmental targets. Electric heat booster, a solution for Domestic Hot Water (DHW) preparation under Low-Temperature-District-Heating (LTDH......) context, is identified as one of aforementioned flexible resources for electricity and heat sectors. This paper extends the concept of optimal load scheduling under day-ahead pricing from electricity sector only to both electricity and heat sectors. A case study constructing day-ahead energy prices...

  2. Changes in the timing, length and heating degree days of the heating season in central heating zone of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Xiangjin; Liu, Binhui

    2016-01-01

    Climate change affects the demand for energy consumption, especially for heating and cooling buildings. Using daily mean temperature (Tmean) data, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal changes of the starting date for heating (HS), ending date for heating (HE), length (HL) and heating degree day (HDD) of the heating season in central heating zone of China. Over China’s central heating zone, regional average HS has become later by 0.97 day per decade and HE has become earlier by 1.49 days per decade during 1960–2011, resulting in a decline of HL (−2.47 days/decade). Regional averaged HDD decreased significantly by 63.22 °C/decade, which implies a decreasing energy demand for heating over the central heating zone of China. Spatially, there are generally larger energy-saving rate in the south, due to low average HDD during the heating season. Over China’s central heating zone, Tmean had a greater effect on HL in warm localities and a greater effect on HDD in cold localities. We project that the sensitivity of HL (HDD) to temperature change will increase (decrease) in a warmer climate. These opposite sensitivities should be considered when we want to predict the effects of climate change on heating energy consumption in China in the future. PMID:27651063

  3. General movements in the first fourteen days of life in extremely low birth weight (ELBW) infants

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Vries, N. K. S.; Erwich, J. J. H. M.; Bos, A. F.

    2008-01-01

    Objective: To assess the quality of general movements (GMs) in the first fourteen days of life in relation to obstetric and postnatal risk factors and neurodevelopmental outcome in extremely low birth weight (ELBW) infants. Study design: The GMs of nineteen infants were assessed on days 2, 4, 6, 10

  4. Extreme heat event projections for a coastal megacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz, L. E.; Gonzalez, J.

    2017-12-01

    As summers become warmer, extreme heat events are expected to increase in intensity, frequency, and duration. Large urban centers may affect these projections by introducing feedbacks between the atmosphere and the built environment through processes involving anthropogenic heat, wind modification, radiation blocking, and others. General circulation models are often run with spatial resolutions in the order of 100 km, limiting their skill at resolving local scale processes and highly spatially varying features such as cities' heterogeneous landscape and mountain topography. This study employs climate simulations using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model coupled with a modified multi-layer urban canopy and building energy model to downscale CESM1 at 1 km horizontal resolution across three time slices (2006-2010, 2075-2079, and 2095-2099) and two projections (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). New York City Metropolitan area, with a population of over 20 million and a complex urban canopy, is used as a case study. The urban canopy model of WRF was modified to include a drag coefficient as a function of the building plant area fraction and the introduction of evaporative cooling systems at building roofs to reject the anthropogenic heat from the buildings, with urban canopy parameters computed from the New York City Property Land-Use Tax-lot Output (PLUTO). Model performance is evaluated against the input model and historical records from airport stations, showing improvement in the statistical characteristics in the downscaled model output. Projection results are presented as spatially distributed anomalies in heat wave frequency, duration, and maximum intensity from the 2006-2010 benchmark period. Results show that local sea-breeze circulations mitigate heat wave impacts, following a positive gradient with increasing distance from the coastline. However, end of century RCP 8.5 projections show the possibility of reversal of this pattern, sea surface temperatures increase

  5. Urban Heat Island phenomenon in extreme continental climate (Astana, Kazakhstan)

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    Konstantinov, Pavel; Akhmetova, Alina

    2015-04-01

    Urban Heat Island (UHI) phenomenon is well known in scientific literature since first half of the 19th century [1]. By now a wide number of world capitals is described from climatological point of view, especially in mid-latitudes. In beginning of XXI century new studies focus on heat island of tropical cities. However dynamics UHI in extreme continental climates is insufficiently investigated, due to the fact that there isn't large cities in Europe and Northern America within that climate type. In this paper we investigate seasonal and diurnal dynamics UHI intensity for Astana, capital city of Kazakhstan (population larger than 835 000 within the city) including UHI intensity changes on different time scales. Now (since 1998) Astana is the second coldest capital city in the world after Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia [3] For this study we use the UHI investigation technology, described in [2]. According to this paper, we selected three stations: one located into city in high and midrise buildings area (including extensive lowrise and high-energy industrial - LCZ classification) and two others located in rural site (sparsely built or open-set and lightweight lowrise according LCZ classification). Also these stations must be close by distance (less than 100 km) and altitude. Therefore, first for Astana city were obtained numerical evaluations for UHI climate dynamics, UHI dependence of synoptic situations and total UHI climatology on monthly and daily averages. References: 1.Howard, L. (1833) The Climate of London, Deduced from Meteorological Observations. Volume 2, London. 2.Kukanova E.A., Konstantinov P.I. An urban heat islands climatology in Russia and linkages to the climate change In Geophysical Research Abstracts, volume 16 of EGU General Assembly, pages EGU2014-10833-1, Germany, 2014. Germany. 3.www.pogoda.ru.net

  6. Extreme Heat: A Prevention Guide to Promote Your Personal Health and Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

  7. Radiant heat increases piglets’ use of the heated creep area on the critical days after birth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Mona Lilian Vestbjerg; Thodberg, Karen; Pedersen, Lene Juul

    2017-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to investigate how piglets’ use of a creep area is affected by using radiant heat compared to an incandescent light bulb. It was hypothesised that radiant heat would increase the use of the creep area. Twenty litters were randomly assigned to one of two heat sources...... in the creep area: (1) an incandescent light bulb (STANDARD, n=10) or (2) a radiant heat source (RADIANT, n=10) with five of each type of heat source in each of two batches. Observations on piglets’ position in the pen were made by scan sampling every ten minutes in a 4-hour period from 1100 to 1500 h on day 1......–7, 14 and 21 post partum. A higher percentage of piglets in the creep area was seen for RADIANT litters compared to STANDARD litters on day 2 (P=0.002) and day 3 (P=0.005), and percentage of piglets in the creep area increased for RADIANT litters from day 1 to 2 (P

  8. Strategies to Reduce the Harmful Effects of Extreme Heat Events: A Four-City Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jalonne L. White-Newsome

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Extreme heat events (EHEs are becoming more intense, more frequent and longer lasting in the 21st century. These events can disproportionately impact the health of low-income, minority, and urban populations. To better understand heat-related intervention strategies used by four U.S. cities, we conducted 73 semi-structured interviews with government and non-governmental organization leaders representing public health, general social services, emergency management, meteorology, and the environmental planning sectors in Detroit, MI; New York City, NY; Philadelphia, PA and Phoenix, AZ—cities selected for their diverse demographics, climates, and climate adaptation strategies. We identified activities these leaders used to reduce the harmful effects of heat for residents in their city, as well as the obstacles they faced and the approaches they used to evaluate these efforts. Local leaders provided a description of how local context (e.g., climate, governance and city structure impacted heat preparedness. Despite the differences among study cities, political will and resource access were critical to driving heat-health related programming. Upon completion of our interviews, we convened leaders in each city to discuss these findings and their ongoing efforts through day-long workshops. Our findings and the recommendations that emerged from these workshops could inform other local or national efforts towards preventing heat-related morbidity and mortality.

  9. Climate extremes in urban area and their impact on human health: the summer heat waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldi, Marina

    2014-05-01

    In the period 1951-2012 the average global land and ocean temperature has increased by approximately 0.72°C [0.49-0.89] when described by a linear trend, and is projected to rapidly increase. Each of the past three decades has been warmer than all the previous decades, with the decade of the 2000's as the warmest, and, since 1880, nine of the ten warmest years are in the 21st century, the only exception being 1998, which was warmed by the strongest El Niño event of the past century. In parallel an increase in the frequency and intensity of extremely hot days is detected with differences at different scales, which represent an health risk specially in largely populated areas as documented for several regions in the world including the Euro-Mediterranean region. If it is still under discussion if heat wave episodes are a direct result of the warming of the lower troposphere, or if, more likely, they are a regional climate event, however heat episodes have been studied in order to define their correlation with large scale atmospheric patterns and with changes in the regional circulation. Whatever the causes and the spatio-temporal extension of the episodes, epidemiological studies show that these conditions pose increasing health risks inducing heat-related diseases including hyperthermia and heat stress, cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses in susceptible individuals with a significant increase in morbidity and mortality especially in densely populated urban areas. In several Mediterranean cities peaks of mortality associated with extremely high temperature (with simultaneous high humidity levels) have been documented showing that, in some cases, a large increase in daily mortality has been reached compared to the average for the period. The number of fatalities during the summer 2003 heat wave in Europe was estimated to largely exceed the average value of some between 22000 and 50000 cases. In the same summer it was also unusually hot across much of Asia, and

  10. Soil heat flux and day time surface energy balance closure

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Soil heat flux; surface energy balance; Bowen's ratio; sensible and latent ... The energy storage term for the soil layer 0–0.05 m is calculated and the ground heat ... When a new method that accounts for both soil thermal conduction and soil ...

  11. It's the Heat AND the Humidity -- Assessment of Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crosson, William L; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Economou, Sigrid, A.; Estes, Maurice G.; Estes, Sue M.; Puckett, Mark; Quattrochi, Dale A

    2013-01-01

    In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. In a NASA-funded project supporting the National Climate Assessment, we are providing historical and future measures of extreme heat to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The project s emphasis is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM output, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons, 2040 and 2090, are the focus of future assessments; these are compared to the recent past period of 1981-2000. We are characterizing regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM output for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM output have been analyzed to develop a heat stress climatology based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and past periods have been used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes, combined with hourly historical meteorological data at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, enable us to create future climate realizations, from which we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields. These include the mean annual

  12. Rainy Day: A Remote Sensing-Driven Extreme Rainfall Simulation Approach for Hazard Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Daniel; Yatheendradas, Soni; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Kirschbaum, Dalia; Ayalew, Tibebu; Mantilla, Ricardo; Krajewski, Witold

    2015-04-01

    Progress on the assessment of rainfall-driven hazards such as floods and landslides has been hampered by the challenge of characterizing the frequency, intensity, and structure of extreme rainfall at the watershed or hillslope scale. Conventional approaches rely on simplifying assumptions and are strongly dependent on the location, the availability of long-term rain gage measurements, and the subjectivity of the analyst. Regional and global-scale rainfall remote sensing products provide an alternative, but are limited by relatively short (~15-year) observational records. To overcome this, we have coupled these remote sensing products with a space-time resampling framework known as stochastic storm transposition (SST). SST "lengthens" the rainfall record by resampling from a catalog of observed storms from a user-defined region, effectively recreating the regional extreme rainfall hydroclimate. This coupling has been codified in Rainy Day, a Python-based platform for quickly generating large numbers of probabilistic extreme rainfall "scenarios" at any point on the globe. Rainy Day is readily compatible with any gridded rainfall dataset. The user can optionally incorporate regional rain gage or weather radar measurements for bias correction using the Precipitation Uncertainties for Satellite Hydrology (PUSH) framework. Results from Rainy Day using the CMORPH satellite precipitation product are compared with local observations in two examples. The first example is peak discharge estimation in a medium-sized (~4000 square km) watershed in the central United States performed using CUENCAS, a parsimonious physically-based distributed hydrologic model. The second example is rainfall frequency analysis for Saint Lucia, a small volcanic island in the eastern Caribbean that is prone to landslides and flash floods. The distinct rainfall hydroclimates of the two example sites illustrate the flexibility of the approach and its usefulness for hazard analysis in data-poor regions.

  13. The annual number of days that solar heated water satisfies a specified demand temperature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yohanis, Y.G. [Thermal Systems Engineering Group, Faculty of Engineering, University of Ulster, BT37 0QB Northern Ireland (United Kingdom); Popel, O.; Frid, S.E. [Non-traditional Renewable Energy Sources, Institute for High Temperatures, Russian Academy of Sciences, 13/19 Izhorskaya str., IVTAN, Moscow 127412 (Russian Federation); Norton, B. [Dublin Institute of Technology, Aungier Street, Dublin 2 (Ireland)

    2006-08-15

    An analysis of solar water heating systems determines the number of days in each month when solar heated water wholly meets demand above a set temperature. The approach has been used to investigate the potential contribution to water heating loads of solar water heating in two UK locations. Correlations between the approach developed and the use of solar fractions are discussed. (author)

  14. Climate Change and Health Risks from Extreme Heat and Air Pollution in the Eastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Limaye, V.; Vargo, J.; Harkey, M.; Holloway, T.; Meier, P.; Patz, J.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change is expected to exacerbate health risks from exposure to extreme heat and air pollution through both direct and indirect mechanisms. Directly, warmer ambient temperatures promote biogenic emissions of ozone precursors and favor the formation of ground-level ozone, while an anticipated increase in the frequency of stagnant air masses will allow fine particulates to accumulate. Indirectly, warmer summertime temperatures stimulate energy demand and exacerbate polluting emissions from the electricity sector. Thus, while technological adaptations such as air conditioning can reduce risks from exposures to extreme heat, they can trigger downstream damage to air quality and public health. Through an interdisciplinary modeling effort, we quantify the impacts of climate change on ambient temperatures, summer energy demand, air quality, and public health. The first phase of this work explores how climate change will directly impact the burden of heat-related mortality. Climatic patterns, demographic trends, and epidemiologic risk models suggest that populations in the eastern United States are likely to experience an increasing heat stress mortality burden in response to rising summertime air temperatures. We use North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program modeling data to estimate mid-century 2-meter air temperatures and humidity across the eastern US from June-August, and quantify how long-term changes in actual and apparent temperatures from present-day will affect the annual burden of heat-related mortality across this region. With the US Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program, we estimate health risks using concentration-response functions, which relate temperature increases to changes in annual mortality rates. We compare mid-century summertime temperature data, downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, to 2007 baseline temperatures at a 12 km resolution in order to estimate

  15. Exposure to extreme heat and precipitation events associated with increased risk of hospitalization for asthma in Maryland, U.S.A.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soneja, Sutyajeet; Jiang, Chengsheng; Fisher, Jared; Upperman, Crystal Romeo; Mitchell, Clifford; Sapkota, Amir

    2016-04-27

    Several studies have investigated the association between asthma exacerbations and exposures to ambient temperature and precipitation. However, limited data exists regarding how extreme events, projected to grow in frequency, intensity, and duration in the future in response to our changing climate, will impact the risk of hospitalization for asthma. The objective of our study was to quantify the association between frequency of extreme heat and precipitation events and increased risk of hospitalization for asthma in Maryland between 2000 and 2012. We used a time-stratified case-crossover design to examine the association between exposure to extreme heat and precipitation events and risk of hospitalization for asthma (ICD-9 code 493, n = 115,923). Occurrence of extreme heat events in Maryland increased the risk of same day hospitalization for asthma (lag 0) by 3 % (Odds Ratio (OR): 1.03, 95 % Confidence Interval (CI): 1.00, 1.07), with a considerably higher risk observed for extreme heat events that occur during summer months (OR: 1.23, 95 % CI: 1.15, 1.33). Likewise, summertime extreme precipitation events increased the risk of hospitalization for asthma by 11 % in Maryland (OR: 1.11, 95 % CI: 1.06, 1.17). Across age groups, increase in risk for asthma hospitalization from exposure to extreme heat event during the summer months was most pronounced among youth and adults, while those related to extreme precipitation event was highest among ≤4 year olds. Exposure to extreme heat and extreme precipitation events, particularly during summertime, is associated with increased risk of hospitalization for asthma in Maryland. Our results suggest that projected increases in frequency of extreme heat and precipitation event will have significant impact on public health.

  16. Future Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health over the Coterminous U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Crosson, William L.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.

    2013-01-01

    In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981- 2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a 'heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km), to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air temperatures, heat indices

  17. Vulnerability to extreme-heat-associated hospitalization in three counties in Michigan, USA, 2000-2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogbomo, Adesuwa S.; Gronlund, Carina J.; O'Neill, Marie S.; Konen, Tess; Cameron, Lorraine; Wahl, Robert

    2017-05-01

    With climate change, extreme heat (EH) events are increasing, so it is important to understand who is vulnerable to heat-associated morbidity. We determined the association between EH and hospitalizations for all natural causes; cardiovascular, respiratory, and renal diseases; diabetes mellitus; and acute myocardial infarction in Michigan, USA, at different intensities and durations. We assessed confounding by ozone and how individual characteristics and health insurance payer (a proxy for income) modified these associations. We obtained Michigan Inpatient Database, National Climatic Data Center, and US Environmental Protection Agency ozone data for May-September, 2000-2009 for three Michigan counties. We employed a case-crossover design and modeled EH as an indicator for temperature above the 95th, 97th, or 99th percentile thresholds for 1, 2, 3, or 4 days. We examined effect modification by patient age, race, sex, and health insurance payer and pooled the county results. Among non-whites, the pooled odds ratio for hospitalization on EH (97th percentile threshold) vs. non-EH days for renal diseases was 1.37 (95 % CI = 1.13-1.66), which increased with increasing EH intensity, but was null among whites (OR = 1.00, 95 % CI = 0.81, 1.25). We observed a null association between EH and cardiovascular hospitalization. EH (99th percentile threshold) was associated with myocardial infarction hospitalizations. Confounding by ozone was minimal. EH was associated with hospitalizations for renal disease among non-whites. This information on vulnerability to heat-associated morbidity helps characterize the public health burden of EH and target interventions including patient education.

  18. Beryllium armoured target for extreme heat and neutron loading conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazul, I.; Gervash, A.; Giniyatulin, R.

    2004-01-01

    Beryllium is a primary candidate as a target material for high-energy protons conversion into neutrons used for different applications. In order to get higher neutron flux the conversion area has to be minimized - in our case the target is limited by 1-2 liter volume. This target generates about 5·10 13 fast neutrons per second and removes of 150 kW thermal power deposited by proton beam (30 mA, 5 MeV), coming from linac. The operational condition of the converter is close to the condition of Be-armored components in fusion reactors: high thermal and neutron fluxes and active cooling. Therefore achievements in development of water-cooled high heat flux components for fusion application can be used for design of Be converter and vice versa. However for medical application the using of high-activated heat sink materials such as Cu and SS is strongly limited. So, new materials (Be, Al, Zr) and new joining technologies in comparison with the achievements in fusion area have to be used for construction of such Be converter. In order to reduce amount of heat sink materials in the target saddle-block geometry for Be armor is suggested and developed. Results of R and D works on the development of water cooled Be target for converter are presented, including data on selected materials, technological trials and mockups high heat flux testing. Preliminary design of Be neutron converter for medical applications based on R and D results is presented. (author)

  19. Age Modulates Physiological Responses during Fan Use under Extreme Heat and Humidity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gagnon, Daniel; Romero, Steven A; Cramer, Matthew N; Kouda, Ken; Poh, Paula Y S; Ngo, Hai; Jay, Ollie; Crandall, Craig G

    2017-11-01

    We examined the effect of electric fan use on cardiovascular and thermoregulatory responses of nine young (26 ± 3 yr) and nine aged (68 ± 4 yr) adults exposed to extreme heat and humidity. While resting at a temperature of 42°C, relative humidity increased from 30% to 70% in 2% increments every 5 min. On randomized days, the protocol was repeated without or with fan use. HR, core (Tcore) and mean skin (Tsk) temperatures were measured continuously. Whole-body sweat loss was measured from changes in nude body weight. Other measures of cardiovascular (cardiac output), thermoregulatory (local cutaneous and forearm vascular conductance, local sweat rate), and perceptual (thermal and thirst sensations) responses were also examined. When averaged over the entire protocol, fan use resulted in a small reduction of HR (-2 bpm, 95% confidence interval [CI], -8 to 3), and slightly greater Tcore (+0.05°C; 95% CI, -0.13 to 0.23) and Tsk (+0.03°C; 95% CI, -0.36 to 0.42) in young adults. In contrast, fan use resulted in greater HR (+5 bpm; 95% CI, 0-10), Tcore (+0.20°C; 95% CI, 0.00-0.41), and Tsk (+0.47°C; 95% CI, 0.18-0.76) in aged adults. A greater whole-body sweat loss during fan use was observed in young (+0.2 kg; 95% CI, -0.2 to 0.6) but not aged (0.0 kg; 95% CI, -0.2 to 0.2) adults. Greater local sweat rate and cutaneous vascular conductance were observed with fan use in aged adults. Other measures of cardiovascular, thermoregulatory, and perceptual responses were unaffected by fan use in both groups. During extreme heat and humidity, fan use elevates physiological strain in aged, but not young, adults.

  20. Regional air-sea coupled model simulation for two types of extreme heat in North China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Donghuan; Zou, Liwei; Zhou, Tianjun

    2018-03-01

    Extreme heat (EH) over North China (NC) is affected by both large scale circulations and local topography, and could be categorized into foehn favorable and no-foehn types. In this study, the performance of a regional coupled model in simulating EH over NC was examined. The effects of regional air-sea coupling were also investigated by comparing the results with the corresponding atmosphere-alone regional model. On foehn favorable (no-foehn) EH days, a barotropic cyclonic (anticyclonic) anomaly is located to the northeast (northwest) of NC, while anomalous northwesterlies (southeasterlies) prevail over NC in the lower troposphere. In the uncoupled simulation, barotropic anticyclonic bias occurs over China on both foehn favorable and no-foehn EH days, and the northwesterlies in the lower troposphere on foehn favorable EH days are not obvious. These biases are significantly reduced in the regional coupled simulation, especially on foehn favorable EH days with wind anomalies skill scores improving from 0.38 to 0.47, 0.47 to 0.61 and 0.38 to 0.56 for horizontal winds at 250, 500 and 850 hPa, respectively. Compared with the uncoupled simulation, the reproduction of the longitudinal position of Northwest Pacific subtropical high (NPSH) and the spatial pattern of the low-level monsoon flow over East Asia are improved in the coupled simulation. Therefore, the anticyclonic bias over China is obviously reduced, and the proportion of EH days characterized by anticyclonic anomaly is more appropriate. The improvements in the regional coupled model indicate that it is a promising choice for the future projection of EH over NC.

  1. Effect of land albedo, CO2, orography, and oceanic heat transport on extreme climates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Romanova

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Using an atmospheric general circulation model of intermediate complexity coupled to a sea ice – slab ocean model, we perform a number of sensitivity experiments under present-day orbital conditions and geographical distribution to assess the possibility that land albedo, atmospheric CO2, orography and oceanic heat transport may cause an ice-covered Earth. Changing only one boundary or initial condition, the model produces solutions with at least some ice-free oceans in the low latitudes. Using some combination of these forcing parameters, a full Earth's glaciation is obtained. We find that the most significant factor leading to an ice-covered Earth is the high land albedo in combination with initial temperatures set equal to the freezing point. Oceanic heat transport and orography play only a minor role for the climate state. Extremely low concentrations of CO2 also appear to be insufficient to provoke a runaway ice-albedo feedback, but the strong deviations in surface air temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere point to the existence of a strong nonlinearity in the system. Finally, we argue that the initial condition determines whether the system can go into a completely ice covered state, indicating multiple equilibria, a feature known from simple energy balance models.

  2. A non-equilibrium model for soil heating and moisture transport during extreme surface heating: The soil (heat-moisture-vapor) HMV-Model Version

    Science.gov (United States)

    William Massman

    2015-01-01

    Increased use of prescribed fire by land managers and the increasing likelihood of wildfires due to climate change require an improved modeling capability of extreme heating of soils during fires. This issue is addressed here by developing and testing the soil (heat-moisture-vapor) HMVmodel, a 1-D (one-dimensional) non-equilibrium (liquid- vapor phase change)...

  3. Historic and future increase in the global land area affected by monthly heat extremes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coumou, Dim; Robinson, Alexander

    2013-01-01

    Climatic warming of about 0.5 ° C in the global mean since the 1970s has strongly increased the occurrence-probability of heat extremes on monthly to seasonal time scales. For the 21st century, climate models predict more substantial warming. Here we show that the multi-model mean of the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) climate models accurately reproduces the evolution over time and spatial patterns of the historically observed increase in monthly heat extremes. For the near-term (i.e., by 2040), the models predict a robust, several-fold increase in the frequency of such heat extremes, irrespective of the emission scenario. However, mitigation can strongly reduce the number of heat extremes by the second half of the 21st century. Unmitigated climate change causes most (>50%) continental regions to move to a new climatic regime with the coldest summer months by the end of the century substantially hotter than the hottest experienced today. We show that the land fraction experiencing extreme heat as a function of global mean temperature follows a simple cumulative distribution function, which depends only on natural variability and the level of spatial heterogeneity in the warming. (letter)

  4. Day-to-day consistency of lower extremity kinematics during stair ambulation in 24-45 years old athletes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Husa-Russell, Johanna; Ukelo, Thomas; List, Renate; Lorenzetti, Silvio; Wolf, Peter

    2011-04-01

    Before making interpretations on the effects of interventions or on the features of pathological gait patterns during stair ambulation, the day-to-day consistency of the investigated variables must be established. In this article, the day-to-day consistency was determined for kinematic variables during barefoot stair ambulation. Ten healthy athletes performed two gait analysis sessions, at least one week apart, utilizing a marker set of 47 skin markers, and a functional joint center/axes determination. Being found on limits of agreement and mean differences between the repeated stair ambulation sessions, totally 43 ranges of motions were examined at the hip, knee, ankle, and midfoot joints. The day-to-day consistency was generally in the magnitude of three degrees, irrespective of test condition, investigated joint, or regarded cardinal body plane. The reported values of the day-to-day consistency provide guidelines to distinguish between pathological and healthy gait patterns, and thresholds to determine minimal effects of interventions during stair ambulation. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Development of heat and drought related extreme weather events and their effect on winter wheat yields in Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lüttger, Andrea B.; Feike, Til

    2018-04-01

    Climate change constitutes a major challenge for high productivity in wheat, the most widely grown crop in Germany. Extreme weather events including dry spells and heat waves, which negatively affect wheat yields, are expected to aggravate in the future. It is crucial to improve the understanding of the spatiotemporal development of such extreme weather events and the respective crop-climate relationships in Germany. Thus, the present study is a first attempt to evaluate the historic development of relevant drought and heat-related extreme weather events from 1901 to 2010 on county level (NUTS-3) in Germany. Three simple drought indices and two simple heat stress indices were used in the analysis. A continuous increase in dry spells over time was observed over the investigated periods from 1901-1930, 1931-1960, 1961-1990 to 2001-2010. Short and medium dry spells, i.e., precipitation-free periods longer than 5 and 8 days, respectively, increased more strongly compared to longer dry spells (longer than 11 days). The heat-related stress indices with maximum temperatures above 25 and 28 °C during critical wheat growth phases showed no significant increase over the first three periods but an especially sharp increase in the final 1991-2010 period with the increases being particularly pronounced in parts of Southwestern Germany. Trend analysis over the entire 110-year period using Mann-Kendall test revealed a significant positive trend for all investigated indices except for heat stress above 25 °C during flowering period. The analysis of county-level yield data from 1981 to 2010 revealed declining spatial yield variability and rather constant temporal yield variability over the three investigated (1981-1990, 1991-2000, and 2001-2010) decades. A clear spatial gradient manifested over time with variability in the West being much smaller than in the east of Germany. Correlating yield variability with the previously analyzed extreme weather indices revealed strong

  6. Effects of extremely hot days on people older than 65 years in Seville (Spain) from 1986 to 1997

    Science.gov (United States)

    Díaz, J.; García, R.; Velázquez de Castro, F.; Hernández, E.; López, C.; Otero, A.

    2002-04-01

    The effects of heat waves on the population have been described by different authors and a consistent relationship between mortality and temperature has been found, especially in elderly subjects. The present paper studies this effect in Seville, a city in the south of Spain, known for its climate of mild winters and hot summers, when the temperature frequently exceeds 40 °C. This study focuses on the summer months (June to September) for the years from 1986 to 1997. The relationships between total daily mortality and different specific causes for persons older than 65 and 75 years, of each gender, were analysed. Maximum daily temperature and relative humidity at 7.00 a.m. were introduced as environmental variables. The possible confounding effect of different atmospheric pollutants, particularly ozone, were considered. The methodology employed was time series analysis using Box-Jenkins models with exogenous variables. On the basis of dispersion diagrams, we defined extremely hot days as those when the maximum daily temperature surpassed 41 °C. The ARIMA model clearly shows the relationship between temperature and mortality. Mortality for all causes increased up to 51% above the average in the group over 75 years for each degree Celsius beyond 41 °C. The effect is more noticeable for cardiovascular than for respiratory diseases, and more in women than in men. Among the atmospheric pollutants, a relation was found between mortality and concentrations of ozone, especially for men older than 75.

  7. Connecting people and place: a new framework for reducing urban vulnerability to extreme heat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilhelmi, Olga V; Hayden, Mary H

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is predicted to increase the intensity and negative impacts of urban heat events, prompting the need to develop preparedness and adaptation strategies that reduce societal vulnerability to extreme heat. Analysis of societal vulnerability to extreme heat events requires an interdisciplinary approach that includes information about weather and climate, the natural and built environment, social processes and characteristics, interactions with stakeholders, and an assessment of community vulnerability at a local level. In this letter, we explore the relationships between people and places, in the context of urban heat stress, and present a new research framework for a multi-faceted, top-down and bottom-up analysis of local-level vulnerability to extreme heat. This framework aims to better represent societal vulnerability through the integration of quantitative and qualitative data that go beyond aggregate demographic information. We discuss how different elements of the framework help to focus attention and resources on more targeted health interventions, heat hazard mitigation and climate adaptation strategies.

  8. Observed changes in seasonal heat waves and warm temperature extremes in the Romanian Carpathians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Micu, Dana; Birsan, Marius-Victor; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Cheval, Sorin

    2015-04-01

    Extreme high temperature have a large impact on environment and human activities, especially in high elevation areas particularly sensitive to the recent climate warming. The climate of the Romanian Carpathians became warmer particularly in winter, spring and summer, exibiting a significant increasing frequency of warm extremes. The paper investigates the seasonal changes in the frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves in relation to the shifts in the daily distribution of maximum temperatures over a 50-year period of meteorological observations (1961-2010). The paper uses the heat wave definition recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) and exploits the gridded daily dataset of maximum temperature at 0.1° resolution (~10 km) developed in the framework of the CarpatClim project (www.carpatclim.eu). The seasonal changes in heat waves behavior were identified using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric trend test. The results suggest an increase in heat wave frequency and a lengthening of intervals affected by warm temperature extremes all over the study region, which are explained by the shifts in the upper (extreme) tail of the daily maximum temperature distribution in most seasons. The trends are consistent across the region and are well correlated to the positive phases of the East Atlantic Oscillation. Our results are in good agreement with the previous temperature-related studies concerning the Carpathian region. This study was realized within the framework of the project GENCLIM, financed by UEFISCDI, code PN-II 151/2014.

  9. Historic and future increase in the global land area affected by monthly heat extremes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Coumou, Dim; Robinson, Alexander

    2013-01-01

    Climatic warming of about 0.5 ° C in the global mean since the 1970s has strongly increased the occurrence-probability of heat extremes on monthly to seasonal time scales. For the 21st century, climate models predict more substantial warming. Here we show that the multi-model mean of the CMIP5

  10. The critical role of extreme heat for maize production in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lobell, David B.; Hammer, Graeme L.; McLean, Greg; Messina, Carlos; Roberts, Michael J.; Schlenker, Wolfram

    2013-05-01

    Statistical studies of rainfed maize yields in the United States and elsewhere have indicated two clear features: a strong negative yield response to accumulation of temperatures above 30°C (or extreme degree days (EDD)), and a relatively weak response to seasonal rainfall. Here we show that the process-based Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) is able to reproduce both of these relationships in the Midwestern United States and provide insight into underlying mechanisms. The predominant effects of EDD in APSIM are associated with increased vapour pressure deficit, which contributes to water stress in two ways: by increasing demand for soil water to sustain a given rate of carbon assimilation, and by reducing future supply of soil water by raising transpiration rates. APSIM computes daily water stress as the ratio of water supply to demand, and during the critical month of July this ratio is three times more responsive to 2°C warming than to a 20% precipitation reduction. The results suggest a relatively minor role for direct heat stress on reproductive organs at present temperatures in this region. Effects of elevated CO2 on transpiration efficiency should reduce yield sensitivity to EDD in the coming decades, but at most by 25%.

  11. Vulnerability to extreme heat and climate change: is ethnicity a factor?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Alana; Bi, Linda; Saniotis, Arthur; Nitschke, Monika

    2013-07-29

    With a warming climate, it is important to identify sub-populations at risk of harm during extreme heat. Several international studies have reported that individuals from ethnic minorities are at increased risk of heat-related illness, for reasons that are not often discussed. The aim of this article is to investigate the underpinning reasons as to why ethnicity may be associated with susceptibility to extreme heat, and how this may be relevant to Australia's population. Drawing upon literary sources, the authors provide commentary on this important, yet poorly understood area of heat research. Social and economic disparities, living conditions, language barriers, and occupational exposure are among the many factors contributing to heat-susceptibility among minority ethnic groups in the United States. However, there is a knowledge gap about socio-cultural influences on vulnerability in other countries. More research needs to be undertaken to determine the effects of heat on tourists, migrants, and refugees who are confronted with a different climatic environment. Thorough epidemiological investigations of the association between ethnicity and heat-related health outcomes are required, and this could be assisted with better reporting of nationality data in health statistics. Climate change adaptation strategies in Australia and elsewhere need to be ethnically inclusive and cognisant of an upward trend in the proportion of the population who are migrants and refugees.

  12. Vulnerability to extreme heat and climate change: is ethnicity a factor?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alana Hansen

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: With a warming climate, it is important to identify sub-populations at risk of harm during extreme heat. Several international studies have reported that individuals from ethnic minorities are at increased risk of heat-related illness, for reasons that are not often discussed. Objective: The aim of this article is to investigate the underpinning reasons as to why ethnicity may be associated with susceptibility to extreme heat, and how this may be relevant to Australia's population. Design: Drawing upon literary sources, the authors provide commentary on this important, yet poorly understood area of heat research. Results: Social and economic disparities, living conditions, language barriers, and occupational exposure are among the many factors contributing to heat-susceptibility among minority ethnic groups in the United States. However, there is a knowledge gap about socio-cultural influences on vulnerability in other countries. Conclusion: More research needs to be undertaken to determine the effects of heat on tourists, migrants, and refugees who are confronted with a different climatic environment. Thorough epidemiological investigations of the association between ethnicity and heat-related health outcomes are required, and this could be assisted with better reporting of nationality data in health statistics. Climate change adaptation strategies in Australia and elsewhere need to be ethnically inclusive and cognisant of an upward trend in the proportion of the population who are migrants and refugees.

  13. Extreme heat and cultural and linguistic minorities in Australia: perceptions of stakeholders

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background Despite acclimatisation to hot weather, many individuals in Australia are adversely affected by extreme heat each summer, placing added pressure on the health sector. In terms of public health, it is therefore important to identify vulnerable groups, particularly in the face of a warming climate. International evidence points to a disparity in heat-susceptibility in certain minority groups, although it is unknown if this occurs in Australia. With cultural diversity increasing, the aim of this study was to explore how migrants from different cultural backgrounds and climate experiences manage periods of extreme heat in Australia. Methods A qualitative study was undertaken across three Australian cities, involving interviews and focus groups with key informants including stakeholders involved in multicultural service provision and community members. Thematic analysis and a framework approach were used to analyse the data. Results Whilst migrants and refugees generally adapt well upon resettlement, there are sociocultural barriers encountered by some that hinder environmental adaptation to periods of extreme heat in Australia. These barriers include socioeconomic disadvantage and poor housing, language barriers to the access of information, isolation, health issues, cultural factors and lack of acclimatisation. Most often mentioned as being at risk were new arrivals, people in new and emerging communities, and older migrants. Conclusions With increasing diversity within populations, it is important that the health sector is aware that during periods of extreme heat there may be disparities in the adaptive capacity of minority groups, underpinned by sociocultural and language-based vulnerabilities in migrants and refugees. These factors need to be considered by policymakers when formulating and disseminating heat health strategies. PMID:24889099

  14. Extreme heat and cultural and linguistic minorities in Australia: perceptions of stakeholders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Alana; Nitschke, Monika; Saniotis, Arthur; Benson, Jill; Tan, Yan; Smyth, Val; Wilson, Leigh; Han, Gil-Soo; Mwanri, Lillian; Bi, Peng

    2014-06-03

    Despite acclimatisation to hot weather, many individuals in Australia are adversely affected by extreme heat each summer, placing added pressure on the health sector. In terms of public health, it is therefore important to identify vulnerable groups, particularly in the face of a warming climate. International evidence points to a disparity in heat-susceptibility in certain minority groups, although it is unknown if this occurs in Australia. With cultural diversity increasing, the aim of this study was to explore how migrants from different cultural backgrounds and climate experiences manage periods of extreme heat in Australia. A qualitative study was undertaken across three Australian cities, involving interviews and focus groups with key informants including stakeholders involved in multicultural service provision and community members. Thematic analysis and a framework approach were used to analyse the data. Whilst migrants and refugees generally adapt well upon resettlement, there are sociocultural barriers encountered by some that hinder environmental adaptation to periods of extreme heat in Australia. These barriers include socioeconomic disadvantage and poor housing, language barriers to the access of information, isolation, health issues, cultural factors and lack of acclimatisation. Most often mentioned as being at risk were new arrivals, people in new and emerging communities, and older migrants. With increasing diversity within populations, it is important that the health sector is aware that during periods of extreme heat there may be disparities in the adaptive capacity of minority groups, underpinned by sociocultural and language-based vulnerabilities in migrants and refugees. These factors need to be considered by policymakers when formulating and disseminating heat health strategies.

  15. Some specific features of subcooled boiling heat transfer and crisis at extremely high heat flux densities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gotovsky, M.A.

    2001-01-01

    Forced convection boiling is the process used widely in a lot of industry branches including NPP. Heat transfer intensity under forced convection boiling is considered in different way in dependence on conditions. One of main problems for the process considered is an influence of interaction between forced flow and boiling on heat transfer character. For saturated water case a transition from ''pure'' forced convection to nucleate boiling can be realized in smooth form. (author)

  16. Trends in the number of extreme hot SST days along the Canary Upwelling System due to the influence of upwelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xurxo Costoya

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Trends in the number of extreme hot days (days with SST anomalies higher than the 95% percentile were analyzed along the Canary Upwelling Ecosystem (CUE over the period 1982- 2012 by means of SST data retrieved from NOAA OI1/4 Degree. The analysis will focus on the Atlantic Iberian sector and the Moroccan sub- region where upwelling is seasonal (spring and summer are permanent, respectively. Trends were analyzed both near coast and at the adjacent ocean where the increase in the number of extreme hot days is higher. Changes are clear at annual scale with an increment of 9.8±0.3 (9.7±0.1 days dec-1 near coast and 11.6±0.2 (13.5±0.1 days dec-1 at the ocean in the Atlantic Iberian sector (Moroccan sub-region. The differences between near shore and ocean trends are especially patent for the months under intense upwelling conditions. During that upwelling season the highest differences in the excess of extreme hot days between coastal and ocean locations (Δn(#days dec-1 occur at those regions where coastal upwelling increase is high. Actually, Δn and upwelling trends have shown to be significantly correlated in both areas, R=0.88 (p<0.01 at the Atlantic Iberian sector and R=0.67 (p<0.01 at the Moroccan sub-region.

  17. Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deryng, D.; Conway, D.; Ramankutty, N.; Price, J.; Warren, R.

    2014-12-01

    Extreme heat stress during the crop reproductive period can be critical for crop productivity. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are expected to negatively impact crop yields and global food production. This study applies the global crop model PEGASUS to quantify, for the first time at the global scale, impacts of extreme heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soybean yields resulting from 72 climate change scenarios for the 21st century. Our results project maize to face progressively worse impacts under a range of RCPs but spring wheat and soybean to improve globally through to the 2080s due to CO2 fertilization effects, even though parts of the tropic and sub-tropic regions could face substantial yield declines. We find extreme heat stress at anthesis (HSA) by the 2080s (relative to the 1980s) under RCP 8.5, taking into account CO2 fertilization effects, could double global losses of maize yield (dY = -12.8 ± 6.7% versus -7.0 ± 5.3% without HSA), reduce projected gains in spring wheat yield by half (dY = 34.3 ± 13.5% versus 72.0 ± 10.9% without HSA) and in soybean yield by a quarter (dY = 15.3 ± 26.5% versus 20.4 ± 22.1% without HSA). The range reflects uncertainty due to differences between climate model scenarios; soybean exhibits both positive and negative impacts, maize is generally negative and spring wheat generally positive. Furthermore, when assuming CO2 fertilization effects to be negligible, we observe drastic climate mitigation policy as in RCP 2.6 could avoid more than 80% of the global average yield losses otherwise expected by the 2080s under RCP 8.5. We show large disparities in climate impacts across regions and find extreme heat stress adversely affects major producing regions and lower income countries.

  18. Heating- and growing-degree days at Chalk River Nuclear Laboratories, 1976-1980

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jay, P.C.; Wildsmith, D.P.

    1981-05-01

    An update of the report, Heating- and Growing-Degree-Days at Chalk River Nuclear Laboratories (AECL-5547) is presented along with various other meteorological variables which were not included in the previous publication. Also included, and shown in graph form, are the monthly degree-day frequencies. (author)

  19. Ten days of repeated local forearm heating does not affect cutaneous vascular function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francisco, Michael A; Brunt, Vienna E; Jensen, Krista Nicole; Lorenzo, Santiago; Minson, Christopher T

    2017-08-01

    The aim of the present study was to determine whether 10 days of repeated local heating could induce peripheral adaptations in the cutaneous vasculature and to investigate potential mechanisms of adaptation. We also assessed maximal forearm blood flow to determine whether repeated local heating affects maximal dilator capacity. Before and after 10 days of heat training consisting of 1-h exposures of the forearm to 42°C water or 32°C water (control) in the contralateral arm (randomized and counterbalanced), we assessed hyperemia to rapid local heating of the skin ( n = 14 recreationally active young subjects). In addition, sequential doses of acetylcholine (ACh, 1 and 10 mM) were infused in a subset of subjects ( n = 7) via microdialysis to study potential nonthermal microvascular adaptations following 10 days of repeated forearm heat training. Skin blood flow was assessed using laser-Doppler flowmetry, and cutaneous vascular conductance (CVC) was calculated as laser-Doppler red blood cell flux divided by mean arterial pressure. Maximal cutaneous vasodilation was achieved by heating the arm in a water-spray device for 45 min and assessed using venous occlusion plethysmography. Forearm vascular conductance (FVC) was calculated as forearm blood flow divided by mean arterial pressure. Repeated forearm heating did not increase plateau percent maximal CVC (CVC max ) responses to local heating (89 ± 3 vs. 89 ± 2% CVC max , P = 0.19), 1 mM ACh (43 ± 9 vs. 53 ± 7% CVC max , P = 0.76), or 10 mM ACh (61 ± 9 vs. 85 ± 7% CVC max , P = 0.37, by 2-way repeated-measures ANOVA). There was a main effect of time at 10 mM ACh ( P = 0.03). Maximal FVC remained unchanged (0.12 ± 0.02 vs. 0.14 ± 0.02 FVC, P = 0.30). No differences were observed in the control arm. Ten days of repeated forearm heating in recreationally active young adults did not improve the microvascular responsiveness to ACh or local heating. NEW & NOTEWORTHY We show for the first time that 10 days of repeated

  20. Heat balance structure of canopies at extreme precipitation in view of long-term records

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bubnowska, J.; Gąsiorek, E.; Łabędzki, L.; Musiał, E.

    2005-01-01

    Increasing frequency of extreme weather conditions is attributed to the global variations in climate. Heat balance of substrate is one of the processes affecting the climate. Variations of heat balance in spring wheat during the growing seasons (April-August) and in potatoes during the growing seasons (May-September) with maximal and minimal precipitation are confronted here with long term changes of the balance. Two regions Wroclaw-Swojec (1964-2000) and Bydgoszcz (1945-2003) were involved in the study [pl

  1. Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging of Electron Heated Targets in Petawatt Laser Experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma, T.; MacPhee, A.; Key, M.; Akli, K.; Mackinnon, A.; Chen, C.; Barbee, T.; Freeman, R.; King, J.; Link, A.; Offermann, D.; Ovchinnikov, V.; Patel, P.; Stephens, R.; VanWoerkom, L.; Zhang, B.; Beg, F.

    2007-01-01

    The study of the transport of electrons, and the flow of energy into a solid target or dense plasma, is instrumental in the development of fast ignition inertial confinement fusion. An extreme ultraviolet (XUV) imaging diagnostic at 256 eV and 68 eV provides information about heating and energy deposition within petawatt laser-irradiated targets. XUV images of several irradiated solid targets are presented

  2. Liquid jet impingement cooling with diamond substrates for extremely high heat flux applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lienhard V, J.H.

    1993-01-01

    The combination of impinging jets and diamond substrates may provide an effective solution to a class of extremely high heat flux problems in which very localized heat loads must be removed. Some potential applications include the cooling of high-heat-load components in synchrotron x-ray, fusion, and semiconductor laser systems. Impinging liquid jets are a very effective vehicle for removing high heat fluxes. The liquid supply arrangement is relatively simple, and low thermal resistances can be routinely achieved. A jet's cooling ability is a strong function of the size of the cooled area relative to the jet diameter. For relatively large area targets, the critical heat fluxes can approach 20 W/mm 2 . In this situation, burnout usually originates at the outer edge of the cooled region as increasing heat flux inhibits the liquid supply. Limitations from liquid supply are minimized when heating is restricted to the jet stagnation zone. The high stagnation pressure and high velocity gradients appear to suppress critical flux phenomena, and fluxes of up to 400 W/mm 2 have been reached without evidence of burnout. Instead, the restrictions on heat flux are closely related to properties of the cooled target. Target properties become an issue owing to the large temperatures and large temperature gradients that accompany heat fluxes over 100 W/mm 2 . These conditions necessitate a target with both high thermal conductivity to prevent excessive temperatures and good mechanical properties to prevent mechanical failures. Recent developments in synthetic diamond technology present a possible solution to some of the solid-side constraints on heat flux. Polycrystalline diamond foils can now be produced by chemical vapor deposition in reasonable quantity and at reasonable cost. Synthetic single crystal diamonds as large as 1 cm 2 are also available

  3. Global Warming Impacts on Heating and Cooling Degree-Days in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petri, Y.; Caldeira, K.

    2014-12-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is expected to significantly alter residential air conditioning and space heating requirements, which account for 41% of U.S. household energy expenditures. The degree-day method can be used for reliable estimation of weather related building energy consumption and costs, as well as outdoor climatic thermal comfort. Here, we use U.S. Climate Normals developed by NOAA based on weather station observations along with Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble simulations. We add the projected change in heating and cooling degree-days based on the climate models to the estimates based on the NOAA U.S. Climate Normals to project future heating and cooling degree-days. We find locations with the lowest and highest combined index of cooling (CDDs) and heating degree-days (HDDs) for the historical period (1981 - 2010) and future period (2080 - 2099) under the Representation Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) climate change scenario. Our results indicate that in both time frames and among the lower 48 states, coastal areas in the West and South California will have the smallest degree-day sum (CDD + HDD), and hence from a climatic perspective become the best candidates for residential real estate. The Rocky Mountains region in Wyoming, in addition to northern Minnesota and North Dakota, will have the greatest CDD + HDD. While global warming is projected to reduce the median heating and cooling demand (- 5%) at the end of the century, CDD + HDD will decrease in the North, with an opposite effect in the South. This work could be helpful in deciding where to live in the United States based on present and future thermal comfort, and could also provide a basis for estimates of changes in heating and cooling energy demand.

  4. Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deryng, Delphine; Warren, Rachel; Conway, Declan; Ramankutty, Navin; Price, Jeff

    2014-01-01

    Extreme heat stress during the crop reproductive period can be critical for crop productivity. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are expected to negatively impact crop yields and global food production. This study applies the global crop model PEGASUS to quantify, for the first time at the global scale, impacts of extreme heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soybean yields resulting from 72 climate change scenarios for the 21st century. Our results project maize to face progressively worse impacts under a range of RCPs but spring wheat and soybean to improve globally through to the 2080s due to CO 2 fertilization effects, even though parts of the tropic and sub-tropic regions could face substantial yield declines. We find extreme heat stress at anthesis (HSA) by the 2080s (relative to the 1980s) under RCP 8.5, taking into account CO 2 fertilization effects, could double global losses of maize yield (ΔY = −12.8 ± 6.7% versus − 7.0 ± 5.3% without HSA), reduce projected gains in spring wheat yield by half (ΔY = 34.3 ± 13.5% versus 72.0 ± 10.9% without HSA) and in soybean yield by a quarter (ΔY = 15.3 ± 26.5% versus 20.4 ± 22.1% without HSA). The range reflects uncertainty due to differences between climate model scenarios; soybean exhibits both positive and negative impacts, maize is generally negative and spring wheat generally positive. Furthermore, when assuming CO 2 fertilization effects to be negligible, we observe drastic climate mitigation policy as in RCP 2.6 could avoid more than 80% of the global average yield losses otherwise expected by the 2080s under RCP 8.5. We show large disparities in climate impacts across regions and find extreme heat stress adversely affects major producing regions and lower income countries. (paper)

  5. Acquired thermotolerance and heat shock in the extremely thermophilic archaebacterium Sulfolobus sp. strain B12.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trent, J D; Osipiuk, J; Pinkau, T

    1990-03-01

    The extreme thermophile Sulfolobus sp. strain B12 exhibits an acquired thermotolerance response. Thus, survival of cells from a 70 degrees C culture at the lethal temperature of 92 degrees C was enhanced by as much as 6 orders of magnitude over a 2-h period if the culture was preheated to 88 degrees C for 60 min or longer before being exposed to the lethal temperature. In eubacteria and eucaryotes, acquired thermotolerance correlates with the induced synthesis of a dozen or so proteins known as heat shock proteins. In this Sulfolobus species, it correlates with the preferential synthesis of primarily one major protein (55 kilodaltons) and, to a much lesser extent, two minor proteins (28 and 35 kilodaltons). Since the synthesis of all other proteins was radically reduced and these proteins were apparently not degraded or exported, their relative abundance within the cell increased during the time the cells were becoming thermotolerant. They could not yet be related to known heat shock proteins. In immunoassays, they were not cross-reactive with antibodies against heat shock proteins from Escherichia coli (DnaK and GroE), which are highly conserved between eubacteria and eucaryotes. However, it appears that if acquired thermotolerance depends on the synthesis of protective proteins, then in this extremely thermophilic archaebacterium it depends primarily on one protein.

  6. Avoidable 30-day mortality analysis and failure to rescue in dysvascular lower extremity amputees

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wied, Christian; Foss, Nicolai B; Tengberg, Peter T

    2018-01-01

    30 days after surgery. 4 deaths were classified as "definitely unavoidable," 4 as "probably unavoidable," and 23 as "FTR." Patients who died had a higher incidence of sepsis, pneumonia, and acute myocardial infarction compared with those alive. A log binominal regression analysis adjusted for age...

  7. Impacts of extreme heat on emergency medical service calls in King County, Washington, 2007-2012: relative risk and time series analyses of basic and advanced life support.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calkins, Miriam M; Isaksen, Tania Busch; Stubbs, Benjamin A; Yost, Michael G; Fenske, Richard A

    2016-01-28

    Exposure to excessive heat kills more people than any other weather-related phenomenon, aggravates chronic diseases, and causes direct heat illness. Strong associations between extreme heat and health have been identified through increased mortality and hospitalizations and there is growing evidence demonstrating increased emergency department visits and demand for emergency medical services (EMS). The purpose of this study is to build on an existing regional assessment of mortality and hospitalizations by analyzing EMS demand associated with extreme heat, using calls as a health metric, in King County, Washington (WA), for a 6-year period. Relative-risk and time series analyses were used to characterize the association between heat and EMS calls for May 1 through September 30 of each year for 2007-2012. Two EMS categories, basic life support (BLS) and advanced life support (ALS), were analyzed for the effects of heat on health outcomes and transportation volume, stratified by age. Extreme heat was model-derived as the 95th (29.7 °C) and 99th (36.7 °C) percentile of average county-wide maximum daily humidex for BLS and ALS calls respectively. Relative-risk analyses revealed an 8 % (95 % CI: 6-9 %) increase in BLS calls, and a 14 % (95 % CI: 9-20 %) increase in ALS calls, on a heat day (29.7 and 36.7 °C humidex, respectively) versus a non-heat day for all ages, all causes. Time series analyses found a 6.6 % increase in BLS calls, and a 3.8 % increase in ALS calls, per unit-humidex increase above the optimum threshold, 40.7 and 39.7 °C humidex respectively. Increases in "no" and "any" transportation were found in both relative risk and time series analyses. Analysis by age category identified significant results for all age groups, with the 15-44 and 45-64 year old age groups showing some of the highest and most frequent increases across health conditions. Multiple specific health conditions were associated with increased risk of an EMS call including abdominal

  8. The 2010 Pakistan Flood and the Russia Heat Wave: Teleconnection of Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K.; Kim, K. M.

    2010-01-01

    The Pakistan flood and the Russia heat wave/Vvild fires of the summer of2010 were two of the most extreme, and catastrophic events in the histories of the two countries occurring at about the same time. To a casual observer, the timing may just be a random coincidence of nature, because the two events were separated by long distances, and represented opposite forces of nature, i.e., flood vs. drought, and water vs. fire. In this paper, using NASA satellite and NOAA reanalysis data, we presented observation evidences that that the two events were indeed physically connected.

  9. Spatial distributions of heating, cooling, and industrial degree-days in Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yildiz, I.; Sosaoglu, B.

    2007-11-01

    The degree-day method is commonly used to estimate energy consumption for heating and cooling in residential, commercial and industrial buildings, as well as in greenhouses, livestock facilities, storage facilities and warehouses. This article presents monthly and yearly averages and spatial distributions of heating, cooling, and industrial degree-days at the base temperatures of 18 °C and 20 °C, 18 °C and 24 °C, and 7 °C and 13 °C, respectively; as well as the corresponding number of days in Turkey. The findings presented here will facilitate the estimation of heating and cooling energy consumption for any residential, commercial and industrial buildings in Turkey, for any period of time (monthly, seasonal, etc.). From this analysis it will also be possible to compare and design alternative building systems in terms of energy efficiencies. If one prefers to use set point temperatures to indicate the resumption of the heating season would also be possible using the provided information in this article. In addition, utility companies and manufacturing/marketing companies of HVAC systems would be able to easily determine the demand, marketing strategies and policies based on the findings in this study.

  10. Thermal energy storage for electricity-driven space heating in a day-ahead electricity market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pensini, Alessandro

    2012-01-01

    Thermal Energy Storage (TES) in a space heating (SH) application was investigated. The study aimed to determine the economic benefits of introducing TES into an electricity-driven SH system under a day-ahead electricity market. The performance of the TES was assessed by comparing the cost...... of electricity in a system with a TES unit to the case where no storage is in use and the entire heat requirement is fulfilled by purchasing electricity according to the actual load. The study had two goals: 1. Determining how the size – in terms of electricity input (Pmax) and energy capacity (Emax...

  11. Heating and cooling building energy demand evaluation; a simplified model and a modified degree days approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Rosa, Mattia; Bianco, Vincenzo; Scarpa, Federico; Tagliafico, Luca A.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A dynamic model to estimate the energy performance of buildings is presented. • The model is validated against leading software packages, TRNSYS and Energy Plus. • Modified degree days are introduced to account for solar irradiation effects. - Abstract: Degree days represent a versatile climatic indicator which is commonly used in building energy performance analysis. In this context, the present paper proposes a simple dynamic model to simulate heating/cooling energy consumption in buildings. The model consists of several transient energy balance equations for external walls and internal air according to a lumped-capacitance approach and it has been implemented utilizing the Matlab/Simulink® platform. Results are validated by comparison to the outcomes of leading software packages, TRNSYS and Energy Plus. By using the above mentioned model, energy consumption for heating/cooling is analyzed in different locations, showing that for low degree days the inertia effect assumes a paramount importance, affecting the common linear behavior of the building consumption against the standard degree days, especially for cooling energy demand. Cooling energy demand at low cooling degree days (CDDs) is deeply analyzed, highlighting that in this situation other factors, such as solar irradiation, have an important role. To take into account these effects, a correction to CDD is proposed, demonstrating that by considering all the contributions the linear relationship between energy consumption and degree days is maintained

  12. Heat-shield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET) Development Status

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venkatapathy, Ethiraj; Ellerby, Don; Gage, Peter

    2016-01-01

    The Heat shield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET) Project is a NASA STMD and SMD co-funded effort. The goal is to develop and mission infuse a new ablative Thermal Protection System that can withstand extreme entry. It is targeted to support NASA's high priority missions, as defined in the latest decadal survey, to destinations such as Venus and Saturn in-situ robotic science missions. Entry into these planetary atmospheres results in extreme heating. The entry peak heat-flux and associated pressure are estimated to be between one and two orders of magnitude higher than those experienced by Mars Science Laboratory or Lunar return missions. In the recent New Frontiers community announcement NASA has indicated that it is considering providing an increase to the PI managed mission cost (PIMMC) for investigations utilizing the Heat Shield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET) and in addition, NASA is considering limiting the risk assessment to only their accommodation on the spacecraft and the mission environment. The HEEET ablative TPS utilizes 3D weaving technology to manufacture a dual layer material architecture. The 3-D weaving allows for flat panels to be woven. The dual layer consists of a top layer designed to withstand the extreme external environment while the inner or insulating layer by design, is designed to achieve low thermal conductivity, and it keeps the heat from conducting towards the structure underneath. Both arc jet testing combined with material properties have been used to develop thermal response models that allows for comparison of performance with heritage carbon phenolic. A 50% mass efficiency is achieved by the dual layer construct compared to carbon phenolic for a broad range of missions both to Saturn and Venus. The 3-D woven flat preforms are molded to achieve the shape as they are compliant and then resin infusion with curing forms a rigid panels. These panels are then bonded on to the aeroshell structure. Gaps

  13. The other side of the coin: urban heat islands as shields from extreme cold

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, J.; Bou-Zeid, E.

    2017-12-01

    Extensive studies focusing on urban heat islands (UHIs) during hot periods create a perception that UHIs are invariably hazardous to human health and the sustainability of cities. Consequently, cities have invested substantial resources to try to mitigate UHIs. These urban policies can have serious repercussions since the health risks associated with cold weather are in fact higher than for heat episodes, yet wintertime UHIs have hardly been explored. We combine ground observations from 12 U.S. cities and high-resolution simulations to show that UHIs not only warm urban areas in the winter, but also further intensify during cold waves by up to 1.32 ± 0.78 oC (mean ± standard deviation) at night. Urban heat islands serve as shelters against extreme colds and provide invaluable benefits of reducing health risks and heating demand. More importantly, our simulations indicate that standard UHI mitigation measures such as green or cool roofs reduce these cold time amenities to different extents. Cities, particularly in cool and cold temperate climates, should hence revisit policies and efforts that are only desgined for hot periods. A paradigm shift is urgently needed to give an equal weight to the wintertime benefits of UHIs in the sustainability and resilience blueprints of cities.

  14. Extreme Heat Wave over European Russia in Summer 2010: Anomaly or a Manifestation of Climatic Trend?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razuvaev, V.; Groisman, P. Y.; Bulygina, O.; Borzenkova, I.

    2010-12-01

    Extraordinary temperature anomalies over European Russia (ER) in summer 2010 raised a legitimate question in the title of this presentation. A 60-days-long hot anticyclonic weather system with daily temperature anomalies as high as +10K and no or negligible amount of rainfall first decimated crops in the forest-steppe zone of ER, gradually dried wetlands in the forest zone and, finally, caused numerous natural and anthropogenic fires that at the time of this abstract preparation have not yet been extinguished. The extreme heat, lack of precipitation, and forest fires have caused hundreds of deaths and multimillion dollars in property losses. Indirect losses of lives due to this weather anomaly, with the ensuing fires and related air pollution, as well as the absence of air conditioning in apartments has yet to be estimated. The center of European Russia was well covered by meteorological observations for the past 130 years. These data, historical weather records (yearbooks or "letopisi" , which were carried on in the major Russian monasteries), and finally, dendroclimatological information, all show that this summer temperature anomaly was well above all known extremes in the past 1000 years. Like ocean waves and ocean tides, weather and climate variability go together strengthening (or mitigating) each other. We shall show the precursors of the current outbreak using principally the most accurate meteorological records of the past century updated to 2009 (at the Session, the 2010 data will also be presented). While a careful analyses of these records and thoughtful analyses of recent similar temperature outbreaks in Western Europe could not prevent the occurrence of this disaster, the lessons learned from these analyses (a) would warn about its increasing probability and (b) mitigation and adaptation measures could well be made to reduce its negative consequences. Among our arguments are: (1)There is a century-long tendency of reduction of equator minus pole

  15. Present limits to heat-adaptability in corals and population-level responses to climate extremes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernhard M Riegl

    Full Text Available Climate change scenarios suggest an increase in tropical ocean temperature by 1-3°C by 2099, potentially killing many coral reefs. But Arabian/Persian Gulf corals already exist in this future thermal environment predicted for most tropical reefs and survived severe bleaching in 2010, one of the hottest years on record. Exposure to 33-35°C was on average twice as long as in non-bleaching years. Gulf corals bleached after exposure to temperatures above 34°C for a total of 8 weeks of which 3 weeks were above 35°C. This is more heat than any other corals can survive, providing an insight into the present limits of holobiont adaptation. We show that average temperatures as well as heat-waves in the Gulf have been increasing, that coral population levels will fluctuate strongly, and reef-building capability will be compromised. This, in combination with ocean acidification and significant local threats posed by rampant coastal development puts even these most heat-adapted corals at risk. WWF considers the Gulf ecoregion as "critically endangered". We argue here that Gulf corals should be considered for assisted migration to the tropical Indo-Pacific. This would have the double benefit of avoiding local extinction of the world's most heat-adapted holobionts while at the same time introducing their genetic information to populations naïve to such extremes, potentially assisting their survival. Thus, the heat-adaptation acquired by Gulf corals over 6 k, could benefit tropical Indo-Pacific corals who have <100 y until they will experience a similarly harsh climate. Population models suggest that the heat-adapted corals could become dominant on tropical reefs within ∼20 years.

  16. A cross-sectional, randomized cluster sample survey of household vulnerability to extreme heat among slum dwellers in ahmedabad, india.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tran, Kathy V; Azhar, Gulrez S; Nair, Rajesh; Knowlton, Kim; Jaiswal, Anjali; Sheffield, Perry; Mavalankar, Dileep; Hess, Jeremy

    2013-06-18

    Extreme heat is a significant public health concern in India; extreme heat hazards are projected to increase in frequency and severity with climate change. Few of the factors driving population heat vulnerability are documented, though poverty is a presumed risk factor. To facilitate public health preparedness, an assessment of factors affecting vulnerability among slum dwellers was conducted in summer 2011 in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India. Indicators of heat exposure, susceptibility to heat illness, and adaptive capacity, all of which feed into heat vulnerability, was assessed through a cross-sectional household survey using randomized multistage cluster sampling. Associations between heat-related morbidity and vulnerability factors were identified using multivariate logistic regression with generalized estimating equations to account for clustering effects. Age, preexisting medical conditions, work location, and access to health information and resources were associated with self-reported heat illness. Several of these variables were unique to this study. As sociodemographics, occupational heat exposure, and access to resources were shown to increase vulnerability, future interventions (e.g., health education) might target specific populations among Ahmedabad urban slum dwellers to reduce vulnerability to extreme heat. Surveillance and evaluations of future interventions may also be worthwhile.

  17. CAN A NANOFLARE MODEL OF EXTREME-ULTRAVIOLET IRRADIANCES DESCRIBE THE HEATING OF THE SOLAR CORONA?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tajfirouze, E.; Safari, H. [Department of Physics, University of Zanjan, P.O. Box 45195-313, Zanjan (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2012-01-10

    Nanoflares, the basic units of impulsive energy release, may produce much of the solar background emission. Extrapolation of the energy frequency distribution of observed microflares, which follows a power law to lower energies, can give an estimation of the importance of nanoflares for heating the solar corona. If the power-law index is greater than 2, then the nanoflare contribution is dominant. We model a time series of extreme-ultraviolet emission radiance as random flares with a power-law exponent of the flare event distribution. The model is based on three key parameters: the flare rate, the flare duration, and the power-law exponent of the flare intensity frequency distribution. We use this model to simulate emission line radiance detected in 171 A, observed by Solar Terrestrial Relation Observatory/Extreme-Ultraviolet Imager and Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly. The observed light curves are matched with simulated light curves using an Artificial Neural Network, and the parameter values are determined across the active region, quiet Sun, and coronal hole. The damping rate of nanoflares is compared with the radiative losses cooling time. The effect of background emission, data cadence, and network sensitivity on the key parameters of the model is studied. Most of the observed light curves have a power-law exponent, {alpha}, greater than the critical value 2. At these sites, nanoflare heating could be significant.

  18. Novel Zero-Heat-Flux Deep Body Temperature Measurement in Lower Extremity Vascular and Cardiac Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mäkinen, Marja-Tellervo; Pesonen, Anne; Jousela, Irma; Päivärinta, Janne; Poikajärvi, Satu; Albäck, Anders; Salminen, Ulla-Stina; Pesonen, Eero

    2016-08-01

    The aim of this study was to compare deep body temperature obtained using a novel noninvasive continuous zero-heat-flux temperature measurement system with core temperatures obtained using conventional methods. A prospective, observational study. Operating room of a university hospital. The study comprised 15 patients undergoing vascular surgery of the lower extremities and 15 patients undergoing cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass. Zero-heat-flux thermometry on the forehead and standard core temperature measurements. Body temperature was measured using a new thermometry system (SpotOn; 3M, St. Paul, MN) on the forehead and with conventional methods in the esophagus during vascular surgery (n = 15), and in the nasopharynx and pulmonary artery during cardiac surgery (n = 15). The agreement between SpotOn and the conventional methods was assessed using the Bland-Altman random-effects approach for repeated measures. The mean difference between SpotOn and the esophageal temperature during vascular surgery was+0.08°C (95% limit of agreement -0.25 to+0.40°C). During cardiac surgery, during off CPB, the mean difference between SpotOn and the pulmonary arterial temperature was -0.05°C (95% limits of agreement -0.56 to+0.47°C). Throughout cardiac surgery (on and off CPB), the mean difference between SpotOn and the nasopharyngeal temperature was -0.12°C (95% limits of agreement -0.94 to+0.71°C). Poor agreement between the SpotOn and nasopharyngeal temperatures was detected in hypothermia below approximately 32°C. According to this preliminary study, the deep body temperature measured using the zero-heat-flux system was in good agreement with standard core temperatures during lower extremity vascular and cardiac surgery. However, agreement was questionable during hypothermia below 32°C. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. The 2010 Pakistan Flood and Russian Heat Wave: Teleconnection of Hydrometeorological Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, preliminary results are presented showing that the two record-setting extreme events during 2010 summer (i.e., the Russian heat wave-wildfires and Pakistan flood) were physically connected. It is found that the Russian heat wave was associated with the development of an extraordinarily strong and prolonged extratropical atmospheric blocking event in association with the excitation of a large-scale atmospheric Rossby wave train spanning western Russia, Kazakhstan, and the northwestern China-Tibetan Plateau region. The southward penetration of upper-level vorticity perturbations in the leading trough of the Rossby wave was instrumental in triggering anomalously heavy rain events over northern Pakistan and vicinity in mid- to late July. Also shown are evidences that the Russian heat wave was amplified by a positive feedback through changes in surface energy fluxes between the atmospheric blocking pattern and an underlying extensive land region with below-normal soil moisture. The Pakistan heavy rain events were amplified and sustained by strong anomalous southeasterly flow along the Himalayan foothills and abundant moisture transport from the Bay of Bengal in connection with the northward propagation of the monsoonal intraseasonal oscillation.

  20. A comparison of whole body vibration and moist heat on lower extremity skin temperature and skin blood flow in healthy older individuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lohman, Everett B; Sackiriyas, Kanikkai Steni Balan; Bains, Gurinder S; Calandra, Giovanni; Lobo, Crystal; Nakhro, Daniel; Malthankar, Gauri; Paul, Sherwine

    2012-07-01

    Tissue healing is an intricate process that is regulated by circulation. Heat modalities have been shown to improve skin circulation. Recent research supports that passive vibration increases circulation without risk of burns. Study purpose is to compare and determine effects of short duration vibration, moist heat, and a combination of the two on skin blood flow (SBF) and skin temperature (ST) in elderly, non-diabetic individuals following short-term exposure. Ten subjects, 3 female and 7 male (55-73 years of age), received two interventions over three days: 1--Active vibration, 2--passive vibration, 3--moist heat, 4--moist heat combined with passive vibration (MHPV), 5--a commercial massaging heating pad, and 6--no intervention. SBF and ST were measured using a MOOR Laser Doppler before and after the intervention and the third measurement were taken 10 minutes following. Mean SBF following a ten-minute intervention were significantly different in the combination of moist heat and passive vibration from the control, active vibration, and the commercial massaging heating pad. Compared to baseline measurements, this resulted in mean SBF elevation to 450% (at conclusion of 10 minutes of intervention) and 379% (10 minutes post). MHPV (p=0.02) showed significant changes in ST from the commercial massaging heating pad, passive vibration, and active vibration interventions. SBF in the lower legs showed greatest increase with MHPV. Interventions should be selected that are low risk while increasing lower extremity skin blood flow.

  1. Workers’ perceptions of climate change related extreme heat exposure in South Australia: a cross-sectional survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianjun Xiang

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Occupational exposure to extreme heat without sufficient protection may not only increase the risk of heat-related illnesses and injuries but also compromise economic productivity. With predictions of more frequent and intense bouts of hot weather, workplace heat exposure is presenting a growing challenge to workers’ health and safety. This study aims to investigate workers’ perceptions and behavioural responses towards extreme heat exposure in a warming climate. Methods A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was conducted in 2012 in South Australia among selected outdoor industries. Workers’ heat risk perceptions were measured in the following five aspects: concerns about heat exposure, attitudes towards more training, policy and guideline support, the adjustment of work habits, and degree of satisfaction of current preventive measures. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify factors significantly associated with workers’ heat perceptions. Results A total of 749 respondents participated in this survey, with a response rate of 50.9 %. A little more than half (51.2 % of respondents were moderately or very much concerned about workplace heat exposure. Factors associated with workers’ heat concerns included age, undertaking very physically demanding work, and the use of personal protective equipment, heat illness history, and injury experience during hot weather. Less than half (43.4 % of the respondents had received heat-related training. Workers aged 25–54 years and those with previous heat-related illness/injury history showed more supportive attitudes towards heat-related training. The provision of cool drinking water was the most common heat prevention measure. A little more than half (51.4 % of respondents were satisfied with the current heat prevention measures. About two-thirds (63.8 % of respondents agreed that there should be more heat-related regulations and

  2. Historical trends and current state of heating and cooling degree days in Italy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Rosa, Mattia; Bianco, Vincenzo; Scarpa, Federico; Tagliafico, Luca A.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A comparison among methods for calculating heating degree-days (HDD) is provided. • ASHRAE method is used for analyze the historical trends of HDD and CDD in Italy. • The HDD historical profile for Rome is decomposed in its characterizing components. - Abstract: Degree days (DD) represent a versatile climatic indicator which is commonly used in the analysis of building energy performance, as e.g. (i) to perform energetic assessment of existent and new buildings, (ii) to analyze the territory energy consumption, (iii) to develop scenario analyses in terms of energy consumption forecasting, and so on. Different methods can be used for determining the DD values, depending on the available climatic data of each location. In the present paper, the simplified methods based on reduced climatic data set have been compared assuming the mean daily degree-hours method (MDDH) as reference. Hourly temperature profiles recorded by the meteorological station located at the University of Genoa have been used for these analyses. In the second part of the present work, the ASHRAE method has been selected to calculate heating (HDD) and cooling (CDD) degree days for several Italian cities. In particular, daily meteorological data of several Italian cities (covering the whole climatic conditions which occur in Italy) have been used to calculate heating and cooling degree days in the period 1978–2013, in order to analyze their trends in the last years. Finally, the historical profiles of Rome and Milan have been treated as time-series and analyzed in the frequency domain, performing a decomposition of the original data set into different characterizing components. This simplified approach permits to deeply analyze the historical profile of DD and represents a simple starting point method for future analyses with forecasting perspectives

  3. Changes In The Heating Degree-days In Norway Due Toglobal Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skaugen, T. E.; Tveito, O. E.; Hanssen-Bauer, I.

    A continuous spatial representation of temperature improves the possibility topro- duce maps of temperature-dependent variables. A temperature scenario for the period 2021-2050 is obtained for Norway from the Max-Planck-Institute? AOGCM, GSDIO ECHAM4/OPEC 3. This is done by an ?empirical downscaling method? which in- volves the use of empirical links between large-scale fields and local variables to de- duce estimates of the local variables. The analysis is obtained at forty-six sites in Norway. Spatial representation of the anomalies of temperature in the scenario period compared to the normal period (1961-1990) is obtained with the use of spatial interpo- lation in a GIS. The temperature scenario indicates that we will have a warmer climate in Norway in the future, especially during the winter season. The heating degree-days (HDD) is defined as the accumulated Celsius degrees be- tween the daily mean temperature and a threshold temperature. For Scandinavian countries, this threshold temperature is 17 Celsius degrees. The HDD is found to be a good estimate of accumulated cold. It is therefore a useful index for heating energy consumption within the heating season, and thus to power production planning. As a consequence of the increasing temperatures, the length of the heating season and the HDD within this season will decrease in Norway in the future. The calculations of the heating season and the HDD is estimated at grid level with the use of a GIS. The spatial representation of the heating season and the HDD can then easily be plotted. Local information of the variables being analysed can be withdrawn from the spatial grid in a GIS. The variable is prepared for further spatial analysis. It may also be used as an input to decision making systems.

  4. Impacts of global warming on residential heating and cooling degree-days in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petri, Yana; Caldeira, Ken

    2015-08-04

    Climate change is expected to decrease heating demand and increase cooling demand for buildings and affect outdoor thermal comfort. Here, we project changes in residential heating degree-days (HDD) and cooling degree-days (CDD) for the historical (1981-2010) and future (2080-2099) periods in the United States using median results from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations under the Representation Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. We project future HDD and CDD values by adding CMIP5 projected changes to values based on historical observations of US climate. The sum HDD + CDD is an indicator of locations that are thermally comfortable, with low heating and cooling demand. By the end of the century, station median HDD + CDD will be reduced in the contiguous US, decreasing in the North and increasing in the South. Under the unmitigated RCP8.5 scenario, by the end of this century, in terms of HDD and CDD values considered separately, future New York, NY, is anticipated to become more like present Oklahoma City, OK; Denver, CO, becomes more like Raleigh, NC, and Seattle, WA, becomes more like San Jose, CA. These results serve as an indicator of projected climate change and can help inform decision-making.

  5. Impacts of global warming on residential heating and cooling degree-days in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petri, Yana; Caldeira, Ken

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is expected to decrease heating demand and increase cooling demand for buildings and affect outdoor thermal comfort. Here, we project changes in residential heating degree-days (HDD) and cooling degree-days (CDD) for the historical (1981–2010) and future (2080–2099) periods in the United States using median results from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations under the Representation Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. We project future HDD and CDD values by adding CMIP5 projected changes to values based on historical observations of US climate. The sum HDD + CDD is an indicator of locations that are thermally comfortable, with low heating and cooling demand. By the end of the century, station median HDD + CDD will be reduced in the contiguous US, decreasing in the North and increasing in the South. Under the unmitigated RCP8.5 scenario, by the end of this century, in terms of HDD and CDD values considered separately, future New York, NY, is anticipated to become more like present Oklahoma City, OK; Denver, CO, becomes more like Raleigh, NC, and Seattle, WA, becomes more like San Jose, CA. These results serve as an indicator of projected climate change and can help inform decision-making. PMID:26238673

  6. Prediction of laser cutting heat affected zone by extreme learning machine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anicic, Obrad; Jović, Srđan; Skrijelj, Hivzo; Nedić, Bogdan

    2017-01-01

    Heat affected zone (HAZ) of the laser cutting process may be developed based on combination of different factors. In this investigation the HAZ forecasting, based on the different laser cutting parameters, was analyzed. The main goal was to predict the HAZ according to three inputs. The purpose of this research was to develop and apply the Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) to predict the HAZ. The ELM results were compared with genetic programming (GP) and artificial neural network (ANN). The reliability of the computational models were accessed based on simulation results and by using several statistical indicators. Based upon simulation results, it was demonstrated that ELM can be utilized effectively in applications of HAZ forecasting.

  7. Simulating the Impacts of Climate Extremes Across Sectors: The Case of the 2003 European Heat Wave

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schewe, J.; Zhao, F.; Reyer, C.; Breuer, L.; Coll, M.; Deryng, D.; Eddy, T.; Elliott, J. W.; Francois, L. M.; Friend, A. D.; Gerten, D.; Gosling, S.; Gudmundsson, L.; Huber, V.; Kim, H.; Lotze, H. K.; Orth, R.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Tittensor, D.; Vautard, R.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Wada, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Increased occurrence of extreme climate or weather events is one of the most damaging consequences of global climate change today and in the future. Estimating the impacts of such extreme events across different human and natural systems is crucial for quantifying overall risks from climate change. Are current models fit for this task? Here we use the 2003 European heat wave and drought (EHW) as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, and evaluate how accurately its impacts are reproduced by a multi-sectoral "super-ensemble" of state-of-the-art impacts models. Our study combines, for the first time, impacts on agriculture, freshwater resources, terrestrial and marine ecosystems, energy, and human health in a consistent multi-model framework. We identify key impacts of the 2003 EHW reported in the literature and/or recorded in publicly available databases, and examine how closely the models reproduce those impacts, applying the same measure of impact magnitude across different sectors. Preliminary results are mixed: While the EHW's impacts on water resources (streamflow) are reproduced well by most global hydrological models, not all crop and natural vegetation models reproduce the magnitude of impacts on agriculture and ecosystem productivity, respectively, and their performance varies by country or region. A hydropower capacity model matches reported hydropower generation anomalies only in some countries, and estimates of heat-related excess mortality from a set of statistical models are consistent with literature reports only for some of the cities investigated. We present a synthesis of simulated and observed impacts across sectors, and reflect on potential improvements in modeling and analyzing cross-sectoral impacts.

  8. Assessment of the Long Term Trends in Extreme Heat Events and the Associated Health Impacts in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, J.; Rennie, J.; Kunkel, K.; Herring, S.; Cullen, H. M.

    2017-12-01

    Land surface air temperature products have been essential for monitoring the evolution of the climate system. Before a temperature dataset is included in such reports, it is important that non-climatic influences be removed or changed so the dataset is considered homogenous. These inhomogeneities include changes in station location, instrumentation and observing practices. While many homogenized products exist on the monthly time scale, few daily products exist, due to the complication of removing breakpoints that are truly inhomogeneous rather than solely by chance (for example, sharp changes due to synoptic conditions). Recently, a sub monthly homogenized dataset has been developed using data and software provided by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). Homogeneous daily data are useful for identification and attribution of extreme heat events over a period of time. Projections of increasing temperatures are expected to result in corresponding increases in the frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme heat events. It is also established that extreme heat events can have significant public health impacts, including short-term increases in mortality and morbidity. In addition, it can exacerbate chronic health conditions in vulnerable populations, including renal and cardiovascular issues. To understand how heat events impact a specific population, it will be important to connect observations on the duration and intensity of extreme heat events with health impacts data including insurance claims and hospital admissions data. This presentation will explain the methodology to identify extreme heat events, provide a climatology of heat event onset, length and severity, and explore a case study of an anomalous heat event with available health data.

  9. Extreme heat waves under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dosio, Alessandro; Mentaschi, Lorenzo; Fischer, Erich M.; Wyser, Klaus

    2018-05-01

    Severe, extreme, and exceptional heat waves, such as those that occurred over the Balkans (2007), France (2003), or Russia (2010), are associated with increased mortality, human discomfort and reduced labour productivity. Based on the results of a very high-resolution global model, we show that, even at 1.5 °C warming, a significant increase in heat wave magnitude is expected over Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia. Compared to a 1.5 °C world, under 2 °C warming the frequency of extreme heat waves would double over most of the globe. In a 1.5 °C world, 13.8% of the world population will be exposed to severe heat waves at least once every 5 years. This fraction becomes nearly three times larger (36.9%) under 2 °C warming, i.e. a difference of around 1.7 billion people. Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C will also result in around 420 million fewer people being frequently exposed to extreme heat waves, and ~65 million to exceptional heat waves. Nearly 700 million people (9.0% of world population) will be exposed to extreme heat waves at least once every 20 years in a 1.5 °C world, but more than 2 billion people (28.2%) in a 2 °C world. With current emission trends threatening even the 2 °C target, our study is helpful to identify regions where limiting the warming to 1.5 °C would have the strongest benefits in reducing population exposure to extreme heat.

  10. Assessment of every day extremely low frequency (Elf) electromagnetic fields (50-60 Hz) exposure: which metrics?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verrier, A.; Magne, I.; Souqes, M.; Lambrozo, J.

    2006-01-01

    Because electricity is encountered at every moment of the day, at home with household appliances, or in every type of transportation, people are most of the time exposed to extremely low frequency (E.L.F.) electromagnetic fields (50-60 Hz) in a various way. Due to a lack of knowledge about the biological mechanisms of 50 Hz magnetic fields, studies seeking to identify health effects of exposure use central tendency metrics. The objective of our study is to provide better information about these exposure measurements from three categories of metrics. We calculated metrics of exposure measurements from data series (79 very day exposed subjects), made up approximately 20,000 recordings of magnetic fields, measured every 30 seconds for 7 days with an E.M.D.E.X. II dosimeter. These indicators were divided into three categories : central tendency metrics, dispersion metrics and variability metrics.We use Principal Component Analysis, a multidimensional technique to examine the relations between different exposure metrics for a group of subjects. Principal component Analysis (P.C.A.) enabled us to identify from the foreground 71.7% of the variance. The first component (42.7%) was characterized by central tendency; the second (29.0%) was composed of dispersion characteristics. The third component (17.2%) was composed of variability characteristics. This study confirm the need to improve exposure measurements by using at least two dimensions intensity and dispersion. (authors)

  11. Impact of two recent extreme heat episodes on morbidity and mortality in Adelaide, South Australia: a case-series analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Williams Susan

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Extreme heatwaves occurred in Adelaide, South Australia, in the summers of 2008 and 2009. Both heatwaves were unique in terms of their duration (15 days and 13 days respectively, and the 2009 heatwave was also remarkable in its intensity with a maximum temperature reaching 45.7°C. It is of interest to compare the health impacts of these two unprecedented heatwaves with those of previous heatwaves in Adelaide. Methods Using case-series analysis, daily morbidity and mortality rates during heatwaves (≥35°C for three or more days occurring in 2008 and 2009 and previous heatwaves occurring between 1993 and 2008 were compared with rates during all non-heatwave days (1 October to 31 March. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs were established for ambulance call-outs, hospital admissions, emergency department presentations and mortality. Dose response effects of heatwave duration and intensity were examined. Results Ambulance call-outs during the extreme 2008 and 2009 events were increased by 10% and 16% respectively compared to 4.4% during previous heatwaves. Overall increases in hospital and emergency settings were marginal, except for emergency department presentations in 2008, but increases in specific health categories were observed. Renal morbidity in the elderly was increased during both heatwaves. During the 2009 heatwave, direct heat-related admissions increased up to 14-fold compared to a three-fold increase seen during the 2008 event and during previous heatwaves. In 2009, marked increases in ischaemic heart disease were seen in the 15-64 year age group. Only the 2009 heatwave was associated with considerable increases in total mortality that particularly affected the 15-64 year age group (1.37; 95% CI, 1.09, 1.71, while older age groups were unaffected. Significant dose-response relationships were observed for heatwave duration (ambulance, hospital and emergency setting and intensity (ambulance and mortality. Conclusions While

  12. Characteristic changes in heat extremes over India in response to global warming using CMIP5 model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kundeti, K.; Chang, H. H.; T V, L. K.; Desamsetti, S.; Dandi, A. R.

    2017-12-01

    A critical aspect of human-induced climate change is how it will affect climatological mean and extremes around the world. Summer season surface climate of the Indian sub continent is characterized by hot and humid conditions. The global warming can have profound impact on the mean climate as well as extreme weather events over India that may affect both natural and human systems significantly. In this study we examine very direct measure of the impact of climate change on human health and comfort. The Heat stress Index is the measure of combined effects of temperature and atmospheric moisture on the ability of the human body to dissipate heat. It is important to assess the future changes in the seasonal mean of heat stress index, it is also desirable to know how the future holds when it comes to extremes in temperature for a country like India where so much of outdoor activities happen both in the onshore/offshore energy sectors, extensive construction activities. This study assesses the performance of the Coupled Model Inter comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations in the present and develops future climate scenarios. The changes in heat extremes are assessed for three future periods 2016-2035, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 with respect to 1986-2005 (base line) under two RCP's (Representative Concentrate Pathways) - RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. In view of this, we provide the expected future changes in the seasonal mean heat stress indices and also the frequency of heat stress exceeding a certain threshold relevant to Inida. Besides, we provide spatial maps of expected future changes in the heat stress index derived as a function of daily mean temperature and relative humidity and representative of human comfort having a direct bearing on the human activities. The observations show an increase in heat extremes over many parts in this region that are generally well captured by the models. The results indicate a significant change in frequency and intensity of heat extremes

  13. The influence of green areas and roof albedos on air temperatures during extreme heat events in Berlin, Germany

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schubert, Sebastian; Grossmann-Clarke, Susanne [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam (Germany)

    2013-04-15

    The mesoscale atmospheric model COSMO-CLM (CCLM) with the Double Canyon Effect Parametrization Scheme (DCEP) is applied to investigate possible adaption measures to extreme heat events (EHEs) for the city of Berlin, Germany. The emphasis is on the effects of a modified urban vegetation cover and roof albedo on near-surface air temperatures. Five EHEs with a duration of 5 days or more are identified for the period 2000 to 2009. A reference simulation is carried out for each EHE with current vegetation cover, roof albedo and urban canopy parameters (UCPs), and is evaluated with temperature observations from weather stations in Berlin and its surroundings. The derivation of the UCPs from an impervious surface map and a 3-D building data set is detailed. Characteristics of the simulated urban heat island for each EHE are analysed in terms of these UCPs. In addition, six sensitivity runs are examined with a modified vegetation cover of each urban grid cell by -25%, 5% and 15%, with a roof albedo increased to 0.40 and 0.65, and with a combination of the largest vegetation cover and roof albedo, respectively. At the weather stations' grid cells, the results show a maximum of the average diurnal change in air temperature during each EHE of 0.82 K and -0.48 K for the -25% and 15% vegetation covers, -0.50 K for the roof albedos of 0.65, and -0.63 K for the combined vegetation and albedo case. The largest effects on the air temperature are detected during midday. (orig.)

  14. Down-slope cascading modulated by day/night variations of solar heating

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina P. Chubarenko

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Sloping sides of natural basins favour the formation of cross-shore temperature gradients (differential coastal heating/cooling, which cause significant littoral-pelagial water exchange. Autumnal denser water cascading along a sloping lake boundary, modulated by day/night variations of solar heating is considered numerically, in order to reveal the development of the cascading process in time, spatial structure of the exchange flows, and diurnal variations of volumetric flow-rate of littoral-pelagial exchange flow, as well as to compare its daily maxima at different depths/cross-sections, with known quasi-steady state predictions under constant buoyancy flux. The development of exchange flows progress through two phases: i appearance and adjustment to day/night buoyancy flux variations; and ii quasi-steady exchange, when variations of the flow rate in every next diurnal cycle are more or less the same as the previous day. The duration of the first phase depends on local depth (~1 day for depths of about 10 m, ~2 days for depths 15-25 m, and ~5 days down to 30 m for the considered initial linear vertical temperature stratification. Maximum horizontal exchange takes place in the cross-section where the thermocline meets the slope, and the cold down-slope currents detach from the bottom. The location of this cross-section advances off-shore with time, in accordance with the deepening of the upper mixed layer. The existence of a specific coastal circulation cell, with different water dynamics from those above the main part of the slope, is a characteristic feature of horizontal convective exchange. The mean value of the specific volumetric flow rate of the convective exchange, driven by day/night oscillations in its fully developed quasi-steady phase increases almost linearly with local depth, and is about twice as large as the quasi-steady exchange values, predicted by formula Q=0.0013·d1.37 (Q is measured in m2 s-1, and local depth above the

  15. Quantifying the adverse effect of excessive heat on children: An elevated risk of hand, foot and mouth disease in hot days.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wangjian; Du, Zhicheng; Zhang, Dingmei; Yu, Shicheng; Hao, Yuantao

    2016-01-15

    Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common childhood infection and has become a major public health issue in China. Considerable research has focused on the role of meteorological factors such as temperature and relative humidity in HFMD development. However, no studies have specifically quantified the impact of another major environmental agent, excessive heat, on HFMD. The current study was designed to help address this research gap. Case-based HFMD surveillance data and daily meteorological data collected between 2010 and 2012 was obtained from China CDC and the National Meteorological Information Center, respectively. Distributed lag nonlinear models were applied to assess the impact of excessive heat on HFMD and its variability across social-economic status and age groups. After controlling the effects of several potential confounders, the commonly hot days were found to positively affect the HFMD burdens with the relative risk (RR) peaking at around 6 days of lag. The RR of HFMD in the Pearl-River Delta Region was generally higher and persisted longer than that in the remaining developing areas. Regarding the inter-age group discrepancy, children aged 3-6 years old had the highest risk of HFMD under conditions of excessive heat whereas those greater than 6 years old had the lowest. The lag structure of the impact of the extremely hot days was quite similar to that of the commonly hot days, although the relative effect of these two kinds of conditions of excessive heat might vary across regions. This study indicated significantly facilitating effects of excessive heat on HFMD especially among those aged 3-6 and from developed areas. Results from the current study were particularly practical and important for developing area-and-age-targeted control programs in the context of climate change and urbanization. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Thermotolerance and Photosystem II Behaviour in Co-occuring Temperate Tree Species Exposed to Short-term Extreme Heat Waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guha, A.; Warren, J.; Cummings, C.; Han, J.

    2017-12-01

    Thermal stress can induce irreversible photodamage with longer consequences for plant metabolism. We focused on photosystem II (PSII) behaviour to understand how this complex responds in different co-occuring temperate trees exposed to short-term extreme heat waves. The study was designed for understanding complex heat tolerance mechanisms in trees. During manipulative heat-wave experiments, we monitored instantaneous PSII performance and tracked both transient and chronic PSII damages using chlorophyll a fluorescence characteristics. Fluorescence signals were used to simulate PSII bioenergetic processes. The light (Fv'/Fm') and dark-adapted (Fv/Fm) fluorescence traits including fast induction kinetics (OJIP), electron transport rate, PSII operating efficiency and quenching capacities were significantly affected by the heat treatments. Loss in PSII efficiency was more apparent in species like black cottonwood, yellow poplar, walnuts and conifers, whereas oaks maintained relatively better PSII functions. The post-heat recovery of Fv/Fm varied across the studied species showing differential carry over effects. PSII down-regulation was one of dominant factors for the loss in operational photosynthesis during extreme heat wave events. Both light and dark-adapted fluorescence characteristics showed loss in photo-regulatory functions and photodamage. Some resilient species showed rapid recovery from transient PSII damage, whereas fingerprints of chronic PSII damage were observed in susceptibles. Thresholds for Fv/Fm and non-photochemical quenching were identified for the studied species. PSII malfunctioning was largely associated with the observed photosynthetic down-regulation during heat wave treatments, however, its physiological recovery should be a key factor to determine species resilience to short-term extreme heat wave events.

  17. A comparison of spent fuel shipping cask response to 10 CFR 71 normal conditions and realistic hot day extremes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manson, S.J.; Gianoulakis, S.E.

    1994-04-01

    An examination of the effect of a realistic (though conservative) hot day environment on the thermal transient behavior of spent fuel shipping casks is made. These results are compared to those that develop under the prescribed normal thermal condition of 10 CFR 71. Of specific concern are the characteristics of propagating thermal waves, which are set up by diurnal variations of temperature and insolation in the outdoor environment. In order to arrive at a realistic approximation of these variations on a conservative hot day, actual temperature and insolation measurements have been obtained from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) for representatively hot and high heat flux days. Thus, the use of authentic meteorological data ensures the realistic approach sought. Further supporting the desired realism of the modeling effort is the use of realistic cask configurations in which multiple laminations of structural, shielding, and other materials are expected to attenuate the propagating thermal waves. The completed analysis revealed that the majority of wall temperatures, for a wide variety of spent fuel shipping cask configurations, fall well below those predicted by enforcement of the regulatory environmental conditions of 10 CFR 71. It was found that maximum temperatures at the cask surface occasionally lie above temperatures predicted under the prescribed regulatory conditions. However, the temperature differences are small enough that the normal conservative assumptions that are made in the course of typical cask evaluations should correct for any potential violations. The analysis demonstrates that diurnal temperature variations that penetrate the cask wall all have maxima substantially less than the corresponding regulatory solutions. Therefore it is certain that vital cask components and the spent fuel itself will not exceed the temperatures calculated by use of the conditions of 10 CFR 71

  18. Multiple Days of Heat Exposure on Firefighters' Work Performance and Physiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, Brianna; Snow, Rod; Vincent, Grace; Tran, Jacqueline; Wolkow, Alexander; Aisbett, Brad

    2015-01-01

    This study assessed the accumulated effect of ambient heat on the performance of, and physiological and perceptual responses to, intermittent, simulated wildfire fighting tasks over three consecutive days. Firefighters (n = 36) were matched and allocated to either the CON (19°C) or HOT (33°C) condition. They performed three days of intermittent, self-paced simulated firefighting work, interspersed with physiological testing. Task repetitions were counted (and converted to distance or area) to determine work performance. Participants were asked to rate their perceived exertion and thermal sensation after each task. Heart rate, core temperature (Tc), and skin temperature (Tsk) were recorded continuously throughout the simulation. Fluids were consumed ad libitum. Urine volume was measured throughout, and urine specific gravity (USG) analysed, to estimate hydration. All food and fluid consumption was recorded. There was no difference in work output between experimental conditions. However, significant variation in performance responses between individuals was observed. All measures of thermal stress were elevated in the HOT, with core and skin temperature reaching, on average, 0.24 ± 0.08°C and 2.81 ± 0.20°C higher than the CON group. Participants' doubled their fluid intake in the HOT condition, and this was reflected in the USG scores, where the HOT participants reported significantly lower values. Heart rate was comparable between conditions at nearly all time points, however the peak heart rate reached each circuit was 7 ± 3% higher in the CON trial. Likewise, RPE was slightly elevated in the CON trial for the majority of tasks. Participants' work output was comparable between the CON and HOT conditions, however the performance change over time varied significantly between individuals. It is likely that the increased fluid replacement in the heat, in concert with frequent rest breaks and task rotation, assisted with the regulation of physiological responses

  19. Multiple Days of Heat Exposure on Firefighters’ Work Performance and Physiology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, Brianna; Snow, Rod; Vincent, Grace; Tran, Jacqueline; Wolkow, Alexander; Aisbett, Brad

    2015-01-01

    This study assessed the accumulated effect of ambient heat on the performance of, and physiological and perceptual responses to, intermittent, simulated wildfire fighting tasks over three consecutive days. Firefighters (n = 36) were matched and allocated to either the CON (19°C) or HOT (33°C) condition. They performed three days of intermittent, self-paced simulated firefighting work, interspersed with physiological testing. Task repetitions were counted (and converted to distance or area) to determine work performance. Participants were asked to rate their perceived exertion and thermal sensation after each task. Heart rate, core temperature (Tc), and skin temperature (Tsk) were recorded continuously throughout the simulation. Fluids were consumed ad libitum. Urine volume was measured throughout, and urine specific gravity (USG) analysed, to estimate hydration. All food and fluid consumption was recorded. There was no difference in work output between experimental conditions. However, significant variation in performance responses between individuals was observed. All measures of thermal stress were elevated in the HOT, with core and skin temperature reaching, on average, 0.24 ± 0.08°C and 2.81 ± 0.20°C higher than the CON group. Participants’ doubled their fluid intake in the HOT condition, and this was reflected in the USG scores, where the HOT participants reported significantly lower values. Heart rate was comparable between conditions at nearly all time points, however the peak heart rate reached each circuit was 7 ± 3% higher in the CON trial. Likewise, RPE was slightly elevated in the CON trial for the majority of tasks. Participants’ work output was comparable between the CON and HOT conditions, however the performance change over time varied significantly between individuals. It is likely that the increased fluid replacement in the heat, in concert with frequent rest breaks and task rotation, assisted with the regulation of physiological

  20. Multiple Days of Heat Exposure on Firefighters' Work Performance and Physiology.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brianna Larsen

    Full Text Available This study assessed the accumulated effect of ambient heat on the performance of, and physiological and perceptual responses to, intermittent, simulated wildfire fighting tasks over three consecutive days. Firefighters (n = 36 were matched and allocated to either the CON (19°C or HOT (33°C condition. They performed three days of intermittent, self-paced simulated firefighting work, interspersed with physiological testing. Task repetitions were counted (and converted to distance or area to determine work performance. Participants were asked to rate their perceived exertion and thermal sensation after each task. Heart rate, core temperature (Tc, and skin temperature (Tsk were recorded continuously throughout the simulation. Fluids were consumed ad libitum. Urine volume was measured throughout, and urine specific gravity (USG analysed, to estimate hydration. All food and fluid consumption was recorded. There was no difference in work output between experimental conditions. However, significant variation in performance responses between individuals was observed. All measures of thermal stress were elevated in the HOT, with core and skin temperature reaching, on average, 0.24 ± 0.08°C and 2.81 ± 0.20°C higher than the CON group. Participants' doubled their fluid intake in the HOT condition, and this was reflected in the USG scores, where the HOT participants reported significantly lower values. Heart rate was comparable between conditions at nearly all time points, however the peak heart rate reached each circuit was 7 ± 3% higher in the CON trial. Likewise, RPE was slightly elevated in the CON trial for the majority of tasks. Participants' work output was comparable between the CON and HOT conditions, however the performance change over time varied significantly between individuals. It is likely that the increased fluid replacement in the heat, in concert with frequent rest breaks and task rotation, assisted with the regulation of

  1. Responding to the Effects of Extreme Heat: Baltimore City's Code Red Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Jennifer L

    2016-01-01

    Heat response plans are becoming increasingly more common as US cities prepare for heat waves and other effects of climate change. Standard elements of heat response plans exist, but plans vary depending on geographic location and distribution of vulnerable populations. Because heat events vary over time and affect populations differently based on vulnerability, it is difficult to compare heat response plans and evaluate responses to heat events. This article provides an overview of the Baltimore City heat response plan, the Code Red program, and discusses the city's response to the 2012 Ohio Valley/Mid Atlantic Derecho, a complex heat event. Challenges with and strategies for evaluating the program are reviewed and shared.

  2. Electrocortical Activity at 7 Days of Life is Affected in Extremely Premature Infants with Patent Ductus Arteriosus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruns, N; Metze, B; Bührer, C; Felderhoff-Müser, U; Hüseman, D

    2015-09-01

    The aim of this study was to determine whether the aEEG at 7 days of life is influenced by the presence of a PDA in non-sedated extremely low gestational age preterm infants. We prospectively recruited infants born at less than 28 weeks of gestation between 11/2007 and 12/2009. aEEGs were recorded at seven days of life and assessed by using the Burdjalov score and the electronically assessed lower border (eLBA). Kruskal-Wallis-Test and linear regression analysis were performed to determine how GA and a PDA affect the aEEG score and the eLBA. Using linear regression analysis we tested which components of the score are affected by a PDA. We recruited 44 infants with a GA of 26.5/7 (23.4/7-27.6/7) weeks and a birth weight of 837 (461-1230) g. The total sum of score points increased from 4 (1-6) to 8 (5-9) points in infants born at 23/24 weeks and 27 weeks of gestation, respectively. In infants with relevant PDA the aEEG scored lower with 8 (3-10) points compared to those with PDA: 5 (1-8) points. Linear regression analysis showed a positive influence of GA and a negative influence of a PDA on the total score. GA had a positive influence on SWC and the visually assessed LBA. A PDA had a negative influence on continuity. The eLBA increased from 4.61 (3.18-5.53) µV to 5.27 (3.38-6.51) µV in infants of 23/24 vs. 27 gestational weeks, but was not significantly influenced by a PDA. A PDA has a negative influence on the total Burdjalov score and continuity at 7 days of age in infants born at less than 28 weeks of gestation. The electrocortical disturbances may be the consequence of a diminished cerebral perfusion in the presence of a PDA. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  3. Application of probabilistic event attribution in the summer heat extremes in the western US to emissions traced to major industrial carbon producers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mera, R. J.; Allen, M. R.; Mote, P.; Ekwurzel, B.; Frumhoff, P. C.; Rupp, D. E.

    2015-12-01

    Heat waves in the western US have become progressively more severe due to increasing relative humidity and nighttime temperatures, increasing the health risks of vulnerable portions of the population, including Latino farmworkers in California's Central Valley and other socioeconomically disadvantaged communities. Recent research has shown greenhouse gas emissions doubled the risk of the hottest summer days during the 2000's in the Central Valley, increasing public health risks and costs, and raising the question of which parties are responsible for paying these costs. It has been argued that these costs should not be taken up solely by the general public through taxation, but that additional parties can be considered, including multinational corporations who have extracted and marketed a large proportion of carbon-based fuels. Here, we apply probabilistic event attribution (PEA) to assess the contribution of emissions traced to the world's 90 largest major industrial carbon producers to the severity and frequency of these extreme heat events. Our research uses very large ensembles of regional climate model simulations to calculate fractional attribution of policy-relevant extreme heat variables. We compare a full forcings world with observed greenhouse gases, sea surface temperatures and sea ice extent to a counter-factual world devoid of carbon pollution from major industrial carbon producers. The results show a discernable fraction of record-setting summer temperatures in the western US during the 2000's can be attributed to emissions sourced from major carbon producers.

  4. Analysis on the Extreme Heat Wave over China around Yangtze River Region in the Summer of 2013 and Its Main Contributing Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin Li

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the summer of 2013, a rare extreme heat wave occurred in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in China. Based on high resolution reanalysis data from ECMWF, comprehensive analyses on the associated atmospheric circulation and the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA were provided. The stable and strong West Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH was the direct cause for the heat wave. The WPSH had four westward extensions, which brought about four hot spells in southern China. The South Asia High (SAH at 150 hPa was more eastward and more northward than normal. The strong Hadley circulation in the central and western Pacific and the anomalous easterlies at 500 hPa and 250 hPa in the middle and high latitudes were favorable for more hot days (HDs. The total HDs in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River had close relationships with the zonal wind anomalies in the middle and high latitudes, the SSTA in the Indian Ocean and Pacific, and the dry soil conditions of the Yangtze River Valley in spring and summer. The anomalies of the tropical, subtropical, and polar circulation and the underlying surfaces could be responsible for this extreme heat wave.

  5. Tipping a SPRUCE tree over - how extreme heat and desiccation may push southern boreal species beyond their capacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, J.; Childs, J.; Ward, E. J.; Wullschleger, S.; Hanson, P. J.

    2016-12-01

    Since August 2015, the Spruce and Peatland Responses under Climatic and Environmental Change (SPRUCE) climate change experiment (http://mnspruce.ornl.gov/) in Northern Minnesota, USA, has exposed 13 m diameter plots of an ombrotrophic Picea mariana - Ericaceous shrub - Sphagnum bog ecosystem to long-term temperature (T) (0 to +9 °C) and since June 2016, elevated CO2 treatments (ambient or + 500 ppm). In addition to their direct impacts, the T and CO2 treatments have dramatically impacted soil water availability, vapor pressure deficit and # days dew point is reached. We examined plant water relations of Picea mariana (black spruce), Larix laricina (tamarack), and several Ericaceous shrubs including seasonal patterns of water potential (ψ), in addition to sap flow in the in trees. Granier-style thermal dissipation sensors were calibrated in situ (outside plots) by cutting instrumented trees and measuring their actual water uptake. Maximum summer T in N Minnesota reaches 35 °C, and optimal photosynthetic activity for P. mariana at the site peaks between 35-38°C. Treatments have resulted in air T reaching 45°C in the warmest plots resulting in substantial physiological stress. Pretreatment sap flow typically began by late May and was fairly constant over the season until declining in mid-September and ceasing as temperatures dropped below zero. Once the T treatments began, sap flow began earlier in the spring and continued later in the fall indicating an expanded physiological season that can result in plant vulnerability to extreme cold events. Indeed, foliar damage was evident in warmer plots following a spring freeze event in 2016. In addition, the drying heat has resulted in additional foliar damage, indicated by large reductions in predawn water potentials (even in the spring), quicker drying following rain events, and water stress reached earlier in the day. Midday mean summer ψ was -1.5 MPa for P. mariana foliage, higher than the co-occurring L. laricina

  6. Simulation of extreme rainfall event of November 2009 over Jeddah, Saudi Arabia: the explicit role of topography and surface heating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almazroui, Mansour; Raju, P. V. S.; Yusef, A.; Hussein, M. A. A.; Omar, M.

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, a nonhydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been used to simulate the extreme precipitation event of 25 November 2009, over Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The model is integrated in three nested (27, 9, and 3 km) domains with the initial and boundary forcing derived from the NCEP reanalysis datasets. As a control experiment, the model integrated for 48 h initiated at 0000 UTC on 24 November 2009. The simulated rainfall in the control experiment depicts in well agreement with Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission rainfall estimates in terms of intensity as well as spatio-temporal distribution. Results indicate that a strong low-level (850 hPa) wind over Jeddah and surrounding regions enhanced the moisture and temperature gradient and created a conditionally unstable atmosphere that favored the development of the mesoscale system. The influences of topography and heat exchange process in the atmosphere were investigated on the development of extreme precipitation event; two sensitivity experiments are carried out: one without topography and another without exchange of surface heating to the atmosphere. The results depict that both surface heating and topography played crucial role in determining the spatial distribution and intensity of the extreme rainfall over Jeddah. The topography favored enhanced uplift motion that further strengthened the low-level jet and hence the rainfall over Jeddah and adjacent areas. On the other hand, the absence of surface heating considerably reduced the simulated rainfall by 30% as compared to the observations.

  7. Extreme learning machine: a new alternative for measuring heat collection rate and heat loss coefficient of water-in-glass evacuated tube solar water heaters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhijian; Li, Hao; Tang, Xindong; Zhang, Xinyu; Lin, Fan; Cheng, Kewei

    2016-01-01

    Heat collection rate and heat loss coefficient are crucial indicators for the evaluation of in service water-in-glass evacuated tube solar water heaters. However, the direct determination requires complex detection devices and a series of standard experiments, wasting too much time and manpower. To address this problem, we previously used artificial neural networks and support vector machine to develop precise knowledge-based models for predicting the heat collection rates and heat loss coefficients of water-in-glass evacuated tube solar water heaters, setting the properties measured by "portable test instruments" as the independent variables. A robust software for determination was also developed. However, in previous results, the prediction accuracy of heat loss coefficients can still be improved compared to those of heat collection rates. Also, in practical applications, even a small reduction in root mean square errors (RMSEs) can sometimes significantly improve the evaluation and business processes. As a further study, in this short report, we show that using a novel and fast machine learning algorithm-extreme learning machine can generate better predicted results for heat loss coefficient, which reduces the average RMSEs to 0.67 in testing.

  8. Effect of cold water and inverse lighting on growth performance of broiler chickens under extreme heat stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Sang-oh; Park, Byung-sung; Hwangbo, Jong

    2015-07-01

    The present study was carried out to investigate the effect of provision of extreme heat stress diet (EHD), inverse lighting, cold water on growth performance of broiler chickens exposed to extreme heat stress. The chickens were divided into four treatment groups, (T1, T2, T3, T4) as given below: Ti (EHD 1, 10:00-19:00 dark, 19:00-10:00 light, cool water 9 degrees C); T2 (EHD 2, 10:00-19:00 dark, 19:00-10:00 light, cool water 9 degrees C); T3 (EHD 1, 09:00-18:00 dark, 18:00-09:00 light, cool water 141C); T4 (EHD 2, 09:00-18:00 dark, 18:00-09:00 light, cool water 14 degrees C. EHD 1 contained soybean oil, molasses, methionine and lysine; EHD 2 contained the same ingredients as EHD 1 with addition of vitamin C. Groups T1 and T2 were given cooler water than the othertwo groups, and displayed higher body weight increase and diet intake as compared to T3 and T4 (pstress diet, inverse lighting (10:00-19:00 dark, 19:00-10:00 light) with cold water at 9 degrees C under extreme heat stress could enhance growth performance of broiler chickens.

  9. Double Exposure and the Climate Gap: Changing demographics and extreme heat in Ciudad Juárez, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Timothy W.; McDonald, Yolanda J.; Aldouri, Raed; Aboargob, Faraj; Eldeb, Abdelatif; Aguilar, María de Lourdes Romo; Velázquez-Angulo, Juárez Gilberto

    2013-01-01

    Scholars have recognized a climate gap, wherein poor communities face disproportionate impacts of climate change. Others have noted that climate change and economic globalization may mutually affect a region or social group, leading to double exposure. This paper investigates how current and changing patterns of neighborhood demographics are associated with extreme heat in the border city of Juárez, Mexico. Many Juárez neighborhoods are at-risk to triple exposures, in which residents suffer due to the conjoined effects of the global recession, drug war violence, and extreme heat. Due to impacts of the recession on maquiladora employment and the explosion of drug violence (since 2008), over 75% of neighborhoods experienced decreasing population density between 2000 and 2010 and the average neighborhood saw a 40% increase in the proportion of older adults. Neighborhoods with greater drops in population density and increases in the proportion of older residents over the decade are at significantly higher risk to extreme heat, as are neighborhoods with lower population density and lower levels of education. In this context, triple exposures are associated with a climate gap that most endangers lower socioeconomic status and increasingly older aged populations remaining in neighborhoods from which high proportions of residents have departed. PMID:25642135

  10. Time-of-day effects of exposure to solar radiation on thermoregulation during outdoor exercise in the heat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otani, Hidenori; Goto, Takayuki; Goto, Heita; Shirato, Minayuki

    2017-01-01

    High solar radiation has been recognised as a contributing factor to exertional heat-related illness in individuals exercising outdoors in the heat. Although solar radiation intensity has been known to have similar time-of-day variation as body temperature, the relationship between fluctuations in solar radiation associated with diurnal change in the angle of sunlight and thermoregulatory responses in individuals exercising outdoors in a hot environment remains largely unknown. The present study therefore investigated the time-of-day effects of variations in solar radiation associated with changing solar elevation angle on thermoregulatory responses during moderate-intensity outdoor exercise in the heat of summer. Eight healthy, high school baseball players, heat-acclimatised male volunteers completed a 3-h outdoor baseball trainings under the clear sky in the heat. The trainings were commenced at 0900 h in AM trial and at 1600 h in PM trial each on a separate day. Solar radiation and solar elevation angle during exercise continued to increase in AM (672-1107 W/m 2 and 44-69°) and decrease in PM (717-0 W/m 2 and 34-0°) and were higher on AM than on PM (both P  0.05). Tympanic temperature measured by an infrared tympanic thermometer and mean skin temperature were higher in AM than PM at 120 and 180 min (P  0.05). The current study demonstrates a greater thermoregulatory strain in the morning than in the afternoon resulting from a higher body temperature and heart rate in relation to an increase in environmental heat stress with rising solar radiation and solar elevation angle during moderate-intensity outdoor exercise in the heat. This response is associated with a lesser net heat loss at the skin and a greater body heat gain from the sun in the morning compared with the afternoon.

  11. Extreme Heat Resistance of Food Borne Pathogens Campylobacter jejuni, Escherichia coli, and Salmonella typhimurium on Chicken Breast Fillet during Cooking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aarieke E.I. de Jong

    2012-01-01

    The surface temperature reached 70∘C within 30 sec and 85∘C within one minute. Extremely high decimal reduction times of 1.90, 1.97, and 2.20 min were obtained for C. jejuni, E. coli, and S. typhimurium, respectively. Chicken meat and refrigerated storage before cooking enlarged the heat resistance of the food borne pathogens. Additionally, a high challenge temperature or fast heating rate contributed to the level of heat resistance. The data were used to assess the probability of illness (campylobacteriosis due to consumption of chicken fillet as a function of cooking time. The data revealed that cooking time may be far more critical than previously assumed.

  12. [Mathematical apparatus of the circuit theory in modeling of heat transfer upon extreme heating of an organism].

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    The mathematical model of heat transfer in whole-body hyperthermia, developed earlier by the author, has been refined using the mathematical apparatus of the circuit theory. The model can be used to calculate the temperature of each organ, which can increase the efficacy and safety of the immersion-convection technique of whole-body hyperthermia.

  13. Day and night heat stress trigger different transcriptomic responses in green and ripening grapevine (vitis vinifera) fruit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rienth, Markus; Torregrosa, Laurent; Luchaire, Nathalie; Chatbanyong, Ratthaphon; Lecourieux, David; Kelly, Mary T; Romieu, Charles

    2014-04-28

    Global climate change will noticeably affect plant vegetative and reproductive development. The recent increase in temperatures has already impacted yields and composition of berries in many grapevine-growing regions. Physiological processes underlying temperature response and tolerance of the grapevine fruit have not been extensively investigated. To date, all studies investigating the molecular regulation of fleshly fruit response to abiotic stress were only conducted during the day, overlooking possible critical night-specific variations. The present study explores the night and day transcriptomic response of grapevine fruit to heat stress at several developmental stages. Short heat stresses (2 h) were applied at day and night to vines bearing clusters sequentially ordered according to the developmental stages along their vertical axes. The recently proposed microvine model (DRCF-Dwarf Rapid Cycling and Continuous Flowering) was grown in climatic chambers in order to circumvent common constraints and biases inevitable in field experiments with perennial macrovines. Post-véraison berry heterogeneity within clusters was avoided by constituting homogenous batches following organic acids and sugars measurements of individual berries. A whole genome transcriptomic approach was subsequently conducted using NimbleGen 090818 Vitis 12X (30 K) microarrays. Present work reveals significant differences in heat stress responsive pathways according to day or night treatment, in particular regarding genes associated with acidity and phenylpropanoid metabolism. Precise distinction of ripening stages led to stage-specific detection of malic acid and anthocyanin-related transcripts modulated by heat stress. Important changes in cell wall modification related processes as well as indications for heat-induced delay of ripening and sugar accumulation were observed at véraison, an effect that was reversed at later stages. This first day - night study on heat stress adaption of the

  14. Regional Projections of Extreme Apparent Temperature Days in Africa and the Related Potential Risk to Human Health

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Garland, Rebecca M

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Regional climate modelling was used to produce high resolution climate projections for Africa, under a “business as usual scenario”, that were translated into potential health impacts utilizing a heat index that relates apparent temperature...

  15. Soil heat flux and day time surface energy balance closure at ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Soil heat flux is an important input component of surface energy balance. Estimates of soil heat flux were ... mate source of energy for all physical and bio- logical processes ... May) account for major thunderstorm activity in the state and winter ...

  16. Avery Island heater tests: measured data for 1000 days of heating

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Sambeek, L.L.; Stickney, R.G.; DeJong, K.B.

    1983-10-01

    Three heater tests were conducted in the Avery Island salt mine. The measurements of temperature and displacement, and the calculation of stress in the vicinity of each heater are of primary importance in the understanding of the thermal and thermomechanical response of the salt to an emplaced heat source. This report presents the temperature, displacement, and calculated stress data gathered during the heating phase of the three heater tests. The data presented have application in the ongoing studies of the response of geologicic media to an emplaced heat source. Specifically, electric heaters, which simulate canisters of heat-generating nuclear waste, were placed in the floor of the Avery Island salt mine, and measurements were made of the response of the salt caused by the heating. The purpose of this report is to transmit the data to the scientific community; rigorous analysis and interpretation of the data are considered beyond the scope of this data report. 11 references, 46 figures

  17. Extremely low-frequency magnetic fields can impair spermatogenesis recovery after reversible testicular damage induced by heat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tenorio, Bruno Mendes; Ferreira Filho, Moisés Bonifacio Alves; Jimenez, George Chaves; de Morais, Rosana Nogueira; Peixoto, Christina Alves; Nogueira, Romildo de Albuquerque; da Silva Junior, Valdemiro Amaro

    2014-06-01

    Male infertility is often related to reproductive age couples experiencing fertility-related issues. Men may have fertility problems associated with reversible testicular damage. Considering that men have been increasingly exposed to extremely low-frequency magnetic fields generated by the production, distribution and use of electricity, this study analyzed whether 60 Hz and 1 mT magnetic field exposure may impair spermatogenesis recovery after reversible testicular damage induced by heat shock using rats as an experimental model. Adult male rats were subjected to a single testicular heat shock (HS, 43 °C for 12 min) and then exposed to the magnetic field for 15, 30 and 60 d after HS. Magnetic field exposure during the spermatogenesis recovery induced changes in testis components volume, cell ultrastructure and histomorphometrical parameters. Control animals had a reestablished and active spermatogenesis at 60 d after heat shock, while animals exposed to magnetic field still showed extensive testicular degeneration. Magnetic field exposure did not change the plasma testosterone. In conclusion, extremely low-frequency magnetic field may be harmful to fertility recovery in males affected by reversible testicular damage.

  18. The creation of cooling degree (CDD) and heating degree day (HDD) climatic maps for South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Conradie, Dirk CU

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available that could better support adaptive building design decisions in creating comfortable thermal environments. Over the last 100 years, many different heat strain indices have been proposed to indicate comparative thermal comfort levels. After reviewing...

  19. The Spanish tourist sector facing extreme climate events: a case study of domestic tourism in the heat wave of 2003

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-Martín, M. Belén; Armesto-López, Xosé A.; Martínez-Ibarra, Emilio

    2014-07-01

    This research explores, by means of a questionnaire-based survey, public knowledge and perception as well as the behaviour of young Spanish tourists before, during and after the summer holiday period affected by an episode of extreme heat in 2003. The survey was administered between November and December 2004. The extraordinary heat wave of the summer of 2003 can be seen as an example of a normal episode in terms of the predicted intensity and duration of European summers towards the end of the twenty-first century. It can therefore be used as the laboratory setting for this study. In this context, the use of the climate analogue approach allows us to obtain novel perspectives regarding the future impact that this type of event could have on tourist demand, based on a real experience. Likewise, such an approach allows the strategies of adaptation implemented by the different elements in the tourist system in order to cope with the atmospheric episode to be evaluated. Such strategies could prove useful in reducing vulnerability when faced with similar episodes in the future. The main results indicate that Spanish tourists (young segment market) are flexible in adapting to episodes of extremely high temperatures. Their personal perception of the phenomenon, their behaviour and the adaptation measures implemented to a greater or lesser extent before that time, reduce the vulnerability of the sector when faced with this type of event, at least from the point of view of this young segment of the internal national market. In Spain, the episode of extreme heat of 2003 has led to the implementation or improvement of some adaptive measures after the event, especially in the fields of management, policy and education.

  20. Management adaptation of invertebrate fisheries to an extreme marine heat wave event at a global warming hot spot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caputi, Nick; Kangas, Mervi; Denham, Ainslie; Feng, Ming; Pearce, Alan; Hetzel, Yasha; Chandrapavan, Arani

    2016-06-01

    An extreme marine heat wave which affected 2000 km of the midwest coast of Australia occurred in the 2010/11 austral summer, with sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies of 2-5°C above normal climatology. The heat wave was influenced by a strong Leeuwin Current during an extreme La Niña event at a global warming hot spot in the Indian Ocean. This event had a significant effect on the marine ecosystem with changes to seagrass/algae and coral habitats, as well as fish kills and southern extension of the range of some tropical species. The effect has been exacerbated by above-average SST in the following two summers, 2011/12 and 2012/13. This study examined the major impact the event had on invertebrate fisheries and the management adaption applied. A 99% mortality of Roei abalone ( Haliotis roei ) and major reductions in recruitment of scallops ( Amusium balloti ), king ( Penaeus latisulcatus ) and tiger ( P. esculentus ) prawns, and blue swimmer crabs were detected with management adapting with effort reductions or spatial/temporal closures to protect the spawning stock and restocking being evaluated. This study illustrates that fisheries management under extreme temperature events requires an early identification of temperature hot spots, early detection of abundance changes (preferably using pre-recruit surveys), and flexible harvest strategies which allow a quick response to minimize the effect of heavy fishing on poor recruitment to enable protection of the spawning stock. This has required researchers, managers, and industry to adapt to fish stocks affected by an extreme environmental event that may become more frequent due to climate change.

  1. Risk from drought and extreme heat in Russian wheat production and its relation to atmospheric blocking and teleconnection patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giannakaki, Paraskevi; Calanca, Pierluigi

    2017-04-01

    Russia has become one of the leading wheat exporters worldwide. Major breakdowns in Russian wheat production induced by extreme weather events are therefore of high significance not only for the domestic but also for the global market. Wheat production in south-western Russia, the main growing area, suffers in particular from the adverse effects of drought and heat waves. For this reason knowledge of the occurrence of this type of extreme events and of the processes that lead to adverse conditions is of paramount importance for risk management. The negative impacts of heat waves and drought are particularly severe when anomalous conditions persist in time. As an example, a blocking event in summer 2010 resulted in one of the warmest and worst drought conditions in Russia's recent history. The latter caused a decline in Russian wheat production by more than 30%, which in turn prompted the Russian government to issue an export ban that lasted until summer 2011. In view of this, the question of course arises of how much of the negative variations in Russian wheat production levels can be explained by blocking events and other features of the large-scale atmospheric circulation. Specific questions are: how often are blocking events over Russia associated with extreme high temperatures and dry conditions? Which of the teleconnection patterns are correlated with drought and heat stress conditions in the area? Answering these questions can contribute to a develop strategies for agricultural risk management. In this contribution we present results of a study that aims at characterizing the occurrence of adverse weather conditions in south-western Russia in relation to atmospheric blocking and teleconnection patterns such as East Atlantic/Western Russia pattern, the Polar/Eurasia pattern, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Scandinavia pattern. The analysis relies on weather data for 1980-2014 from 130 stations distributed across the wheat production area. The account

  2. Impacts of extreme heat and drought on crop yields in China: an assessment by using the DLEM-AG2 model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, J.; Yang, J.; Pan, S.; Tian, H.

    2016-12-01

    China is not only one of the major agricultural production countries with the largest population in the world, but it is also the most susceptible to climate change and extreme events. Much concern has been raised about how extreme climate has affected crop yield, which is crucial for China's food supply security. However, the quantitative assessment of extreme heat and drought impacts on crop yield in China has rarely been investigated. By using the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM-AG2), a highly integrated process-based ecosystem model with crop-specific simulation, here we quantified spatial and temporal patterns of extreme climatic heat and drought stress and their impacts on the yields of major food crops (rice, wheat, maize, and soybean) across China during 1981-2015, and further investigated the underlying mechanisms. Simulated results showed that extreme heat and drought stress significantly reduced national cereal production and increased the yield gaps between potential yield and rain-fed yield. The drought stress was the primary factor to reduce crop yields in the semi-arid and arid regions, and extreme heat stress slightly aggravated the yield loss. The yield gap between potential yield and rain-fed yield was larger at locations with lower precipitation. Our results suggest that a large exploitable yield gap in response to extreme climatic heat-drought stress offers an opportunity to increase productivity in China by optimizing agronomic practices, such as irrigation, fertilizer use, sowing density, and sowing date.

  3. Effects of extreme heat and drought on trees: what do we know and what do we need to know?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teskey, R. O.

    2017-12-01

    It is almost certain that trees will experience heat waves and droughts during their lifetime. In response, they have acquired many adaptations to survive these periods of intense stress. For example, recently we have investigated the surprising role that stomata play in maintaining leaf function at very high temperatures by opening widely to cool the leaf even when photosynthesis is zero. This process and its trade-offs, as well as many other physiological and morphological responses to high temperatures, will be discussed. The current state of knowledge of the mechanisms trees use to cope with extreme drought, including leaf shedding, hydraulic architecture, carbohydrate storage, and changes in wood anatomy will be discussed. Examples of how the interactions between drought and heat affect trees also will be provided. Finally, an assessment of knowledge gaps and recommendations for future research will be provided.

  4. Modeling soil heating and moisture transport under extreme conditions: Forest fires and slash pile burns

    Science.gov (United States)

    W. J. Massman

    2012-01-01

    Heating any soil during a sufficiently intense wildfire or prescribed burn can alter it irreversibly, causing many significant, long-term biological, chemical, and hydrological effects. Given the climate-change-driven increasing probability of wildfires and the increasing use of prescribed burns by land managers, it is important to better understand the dynamics of the...

  5. Effects of anthropogenic heat due to air-conditioning systems on an extreme high temperature event in Hong Kong

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Y.; Li, Y.; Di Sabatino, S.; Martilli, A.; Chan, P. W.

    2018-03-01

    Anthropogenic heat flux is the heat generated by human activities in the urban canopy layer, which is considered the main contributor to the urban heat island (UHI). The UHI can in turn increase the use and energy consumption of air-conditioning systems. In this study, two effective methods for water-cooling air-conditioning systems in non-domestic areas, including the direct cooling system and central piped cooling towers (CPCTs), are physically based, parameterized, and implemented in a weather research and forecasting model at the city scale of Hong Kong. An extreme high temperature event (June 23-28, 2016) in the urban areas was examined, and we assessed the effects on the surface thermal environment, the interaction of sea-land breeze circulation and urban heat island circulation, boundary layer dynamics, and a possible reduction of energy consumption. The results showed that both water-cooled air-conditioning systems could reduce the 2 m air temperature by around 0.5 °C-0.8 °C during the daytime, and around 1.5 °C around 7:00-8:00 pm when the planetary boundary layer (PBL) height was confined to a few hundred meters. The CPCT contributed around 80%-90% latent heat flux and significantly increased the water vapor mixing ratio in the atmosphere by around 0.29 g kg-1 on average. The implementation of the two alternative air-conditioning systems could modify the heat and momentum of turbulence, which inhibited the evolution of the PBL height (a reduction of 100-150 m), reduced the vertical mixing, presented lower horizontal wind speed and buoyant production of turbulent kinetic energy, and reduced the strength of sea breeze and UHI circulation, which in turn affected the removal of air pollutants. Moreover, the two alternative air-conditioning systems could significantly reduce the energy consumption by around 30% during extreme high temperature events. The results of this study suggest potential UHI mitigation strategies and can be extended to

  6. Urban Form and Extreme Heat Events: Are Sprawling Cities More Vulnerable to Climate Change Than Compact Cities?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, Brian; Hess, Jeremy J.; Frumkin, Howard

    2010-01-01

    Background Extreme heat events (EHEs) are increasing in frequency in large U.S. cities and are responsible for a greater annual number of climate-related fatalities, on average, than any other form of extreme weather. In addition, low-density, sprawling patterns of urban development have been associated with enhanced surface temperatures in urbanized areas. Objectives In this study. we examined the association between urban form at the level of the metropolitan region and the frequency of EHEs over a five-decade period. Methods We employed a widely published sprawl index to measure the association between urban form in 2000 and the mean annual rate of change in EHEs between 1956 and 2005. Results We found that the rate of increase in the annual number of EHEs between 1956 and 2005 in the most sprawling metropolitan regions was more than double the rate of increase observed in the most compact metropolitan regions. Conclusions The design and management of land use in metropolitan regions may offer an important tool for adapting to the heat-related health effects associated with ongoing climate change. PMID:21114000

  7. Frequency of Extreme Heat Event as a Surrogate Exposure Metric for Examining the Human Health Effects of Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Crystal Romeo Upperman

    Full Text Available Epidemiological investigation of the impact of climate change on human health, particularly chronic diseases, is hindered by the lack of exposure metrics that can be used as a marker of climate change that are compatible with health data. Here, we present a surrogate exposure metric created using a 30-year baseline (1960-1989 that allows users to quantify long-term changes in exposure to frequency of extreme heat events with near unabridged spatial coverage in a scale that is compatible with national/state health outcome data. We evaluate the exposure metric by decade, seasonality, area of the country, and its ability to capture long-term changes in weather (climate, including natural climate modes. Our findings show that this generic exposure metric is potentially useful to monitor trends in the frequency of extreme heat events across varying regions because it captures long-term changes; is sensitive to the natural climate modes (ENSO events; responds well to spatial variability, and; is amenable to spatial/temporal aggregation, making it useful for epidemiological studies.

  8. Kids’ Day Brings Smiles, Laughs, and Cheers Despite the Heat | Poster

    Science.gov (United States)

    By Andrea Frydl, Contributing Writer On July 17, more than 200 children attended the National Cancer Institute at Frederick and Fort Detrick 17th annual Take Your Child Work Day (TYCTWD), informally coined “Kids’ Day” by campus employees.

  9. Acquired thermotolerance and heat shock in the extremely thermophilic archaebacterium Sulfolobus sp. strain B12.

    OpenAIRE

    Trent, J D; Osipiuk, J; Pinkau, T

    1990-01-01

    The extreme thermophile Sulfolobus sp. strain B12 exhibits an acquired thermotolerance response. Thus, survival of cells from a 70 degrees C culture at the lethal temperature of 92 degrees C was enhanced by as much as 6 orders of magnitude over a 2-h period if the culture was preheated to 88 degrees C for 60 min or longer before being exposed to the lethal temperature. In eubacteria and eucaryotes, acquired thermotolerance correlates with the induced synthesis of a dozen or so proteins known ...

  10. SISGR - In situ characterization and modeling of formation reactions under extreme heating rates in nanostructured multilayer foils

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hufnagel, Todd C.

    2014-06-09

    Materials subjected to extreme conditions, such as very rapid heating, behave differently than materials under more ordinary conditions. In this program we examined the effect of rapid heating on solid-state chemical reactions in metallic materials. One primary goal was to develop experimental techniques capable of observing these reactions, which can occur at heating rates in excess of one million degrees Celsius per second. One approach that we used is x-ray diffraction performed using microfocused x-ray beams and very fast x-ray detectors. A second approach is the use of a pulsed electron source for dynamic transmission electron microscopy. With these techniques we were able to observe how the heating rate affects the chemical reaction, from which we were able to discern general principles about how these reactions proceed. A second thrust of this program was to develop computational tools to help us understand and predict the reactions. From atomic-scale simulations were learned about the interdiffusion between different metals at high heating rates, and about how new crystalline phases form. A second class of computational models allow us to predict the shape of the reaction front that occurs in these materials, and to connect our understanding of interdiffusion from the atomistic simulations to measurements made in the laboratory. Both the experimental and computational techniques developed in this program are expected to be broadly applicable to a wider range of scientific problems than the intermetallic solid-state reactions studied here. For example, we have already begun using the x-ray techniques to study how materials respond to mechanical deformation at very high rates.

  11. Extreme degree of ionization in homogenous micro-capillary plasma columns heated by ultrafast current pulses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avaria, G; Grisham, M; Li, J; Tomasel, F G; Shlyaptsev, V N; Busquet, M; Woolston, M; Rocca, J J

    2015-03-06

    Homogeneous plasma columns with ionization levels typical of megaampere discharges are created by rapidly heating gas-filled 520-μm-diameter channels with nanosecond rise time current pulses of 40 kA. Current densities of up to 0.3  GA cm^{-2} greatly increase Joule heating with respect to conventional capillary discharge Z pinches, reaching unprecedented degrees of ionization for a high-Z plasma column heated by a current pulse of remarkably low amplitude. Dense xenon plasmas are ionized to Xe^{28+}, while xenon impurities in hydrogen discharges reach Xe^{30+}. The unique characteristics of these hot, ∼300:1 length-to-diameter aspect ratio plasmas allow the observation of unexpected spectroscopic phenomena. Axial spectra show the unusual dominance of the intercombination line over the resonance line of He-like Al by nearly an order of magnitude, caused by differences in opacities in the axial and radial directions. These plasma columns could enable the development of sub-10-nm x-ray lasers.

  12. Simulating extreme environments: Ergonomic evaluation of Chinese pilot performance and heat stress tolerance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jing; Tian, Yinsheng; Ding, Li; Zou, Huijuan; Ren, Zhaosheng; Shi, Liyong; Feathers, David; Wang, Ning

    2015-06-05

    High-temperatures in the cockpit environment can adversely influence pilot behavior and performance. To investigate the impact of high thermal environments on Chinese pilot performance in a simulated cockpit environment. Ten subjects volunteered to participate in the tests under 40°C and 45°C high-temperature simulations in an environmentally controlled chamber. Measures such as grip strength, perception, dexterity, somatic sense reaction, and analytical reasoning were taken. The results were compared to the Combined Index of Heat Stress (CIHS). CIHS exceeded the heat stress safety limit after 45 min under 40°C, grip strength decreased by 12% and somatic perception became 2.89 times larger than the initial value. In the case of 45°C, CIHS exceeded the safety limit after only 20 min, while the grip strength decreased just by 3.2% and somatic perception increased to 4.36 times larger than the initial value. Reaction and finger dexterity were not statistically different from baseline measurements, but the error rate of analytical reasoning test rose remarkably. Somatic perception was the most sensitive index to high-temperature, followed by grip strength. Results of this paper may help to improve environmental control design of new fighter cockpit and for pilot physiology and cockpit environment ergonomics research for Chinese pilots.

  13. Extremes of heat, drought and precipitation depress reproductive performance in shortgrass prairie passerines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conrey, Reesa Y.; Skagen, Susan K.; Yackel, Amy; Panjabi, Arvind O.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change elevates conservation concerns worldwide because it is likely to exacerbate many identified threats to animal populations. In recent decades, grassland birds have declined faster than other North American bird species, a loss thought to be due to habitat loss and fragmentation and changing agricultural practices. Climate change poses additional threats of unknown magnitude to these already declining populations. We examined how seasonal and daily weather conditions over 10 years influenced nest survival of five species of insectivorous passerines native to the shortgrass prairie and evaluate our findings relative to future climate predictions for this region. Daily nest survival (n = 870) was best predicted by a combination of daily and seasonal weather variables, age of nest, time in season and bird habitat guild. Within a season, survival rates were lower on very hot days (temperatures ≥ 35 °C), on dry days (with a lag of 1 day) and on stormy days (especially for those species nesting in shorter vegetation). Across years, survival rates were also lower during warmer and drier breeding seasons. Clutch sizes were larger when early spring temperatures were cool and the week prior to egg-laying was wetter and warming. Climate change is likely to exacerbate grassland bird population declines because projected climate conditions include rising temperatures, more prolonged drought and more intense storms as the hydrological cycle is altered. Under varying realistic scenarios, nest success estimates were halved compared to their current average value when models both increased the temperature (3 °C) and decreased precipitation (two additional dry days during a nesting period), thus underscoring a sense of urgency in identifying and addressing the current causes of range-wide declines.

  14. Effect of Enhanced Air Temperature (extreme heat, and Load of Non-Linear Against the Use of Electric Power

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I Ketut Wijaya

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Usage Electric power is very easy to do, because the infrastructure for connecting  already available and widely sold. Consumption electric power is not accompanied by the ability to recognize electric power. The average increase of electricity power in Bali in extreme weather reaches 10% in years 2014, so that Bali suffered power shortages and PLN as the manager of electric power to perform scheduling on of electric power usage. Scheduling is done because many people use electric power as the load  of fan and Air Conditioner exceeding the previous time. Load of fan, air conditioning, and computers including non-linear loads which can add heat on the conductor of electricity. Non-linear load and hot weather can lead to heat on conductor so  insulation damaged  and cause electrical short circuit. Data of electric power obtained through questionnaires, surveys, measurement and retrieve data from various parties. Fires that occurred in 2014, namely 109 events, 44 is  event caused by an electric short circuit (approximately 40%. Decrease power factors can cause losses of electricity and hot. Heat can cause and adds heat on the  conductor electric. The analysis showed  understanding electric power of the average  is 27,700 with value between 20 to 40. So an understanding of the electrical power away from the understand so that many errors because of the act own. Installation tool ELCB very necessary but very necessary provide counseling   of electricity to the community.

  15. Evaluating penalized logistic regression models to predict Heat-Related Electric grid stress days

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bramer, L. M.; Rounds, J.; Burleyson, C. D.; Fortin, D.; Hathaway, J.; Rice, J.; Kraucunas, I.

    2017-11-01

    Understanding the conditions associated with stress on the electricity grid is important in the development of contingency plans for maintaining reliability during periods when the grid is stressed. In this paper, heat-related grid stress and the relationship with weather conditions is examined using data from the eastern United States. Penalized logistic regression models were developed and applied to predict stress on the electric grid using weather data. The inclusion of other weather variables, such as precipitation, in addition to temperature improved model performance. Several candidate models and datasets were examined. A penalized logistic regression model fit at the operation-zone level was found to provide predictive value and interpretability. Additionally, the importance of different weather variables observed at different time scales were examined. Maximum temperature and precipitation were identified as important across all zones while the importance of other weather variables was zone specific. The methods presented in this work are extensible to other regions and can be used to aid in planning and development of the electrical grid.

  16. Modeling of intense pulsed ion beam heated masked targets for extreme materials characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnard, John J.; Schenkel, Thomas

    2017-11-01

    Intense, pulsed ion beams locally heat materials and deliver dense electronic excitations that can induce material modifications and phase transitions. Material properties can potentially be stabilized by rapid quenching. Pulsed ion beams with pulse lengths of order ns have recently become available for materials processing. Here, we optimize mask geometries for local modification of materials by intense ion pulses. The goal is to rapidly excite targets volumetrically to the point where a phase transition or local lattice reconstruction is induced followed by rapid cooling that stabilizes desired material's properties fast enough before the target is altered or damaged by, e.g., hydrodynamic expansion. By using a mask, the longitudinal dimension can be large compared to the transverse dimension, allowing the possibility of rapid transverse cooling. We performed HYDRA simulations that calculate peak temperatures for a series of excitation conditions and cooling rates of silicon targets with micro-structured masks and compare these to a simple analytical model. The model gives scaling laws that can guide the design of targets over a wide range of pulsed ion beam parameters.

  17. Visitors' perception of thermal comfort during extreme heat events at the Royal Botanic Garden Melbourne

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Cho Kwong Charlie; Loughnan, Margaret; Tapper, Nigel

    2018-01-01

    Outdoor thermal comfort studies have mainly examined the perception of local residents, and there has been little work on how those conditions are perceived differently by tourists, especially tourists of diverse origins. This issue is important because it will improve the application of thermal indices in predicting the thermal perception of tourists. This study aims to compare the differences in thermal perception and preferences between local and overseas visitors to the Royal Botanic Garden (RBG) in Melbourne during summer. An 8-day survey was conducted in February 2014 at four sites in the garden ( n = 2198), including 2 days with maximum temperature exceeding 40 °C. The survey results were compared with data from four weather stations adjacent to the survey locations. One survey location, `Fern Gully', has a misting system and visitors perceived the Fern Gully to be cooler than other survey locations. As the apparent temperature exceeded 32.4 °C, visitors perceived the environment as being `warm' or `hot'. At `hot' conditions, 36.8 % of European visitors voted for no change to the thermal conditions, which is considerably higher than the response from Australian visitors (12.2 %) and Chinese visitors (7.5 %). Study results suggest that overseas tourists have different comfort perception and preferences compared to local Australians in hot weather based at least in part on expectations. Understanding the differences in visitors' thermal perception is important to improve the garden design. It can also lead to better tour planning and marketing to potential visitors from different countries.

  18. Analysis on the Extreme Heat Wave over China around Yangtze River Region in the Summer of 2013 and Its Main Contributing Factors

    OpenAIRE

    Jin Li; Ting Ding; Xiaolong Jia; Xianchan Zhao

    2015-01-01

    In the summer of 2013, a rare extreme heat wave occurred in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in China. Based on high resolution reanalysis data from ECMWF, comprehensive analyses on the associated atmospheric circulation and the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) were provided. The stable and strong West Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) was the direct cause for the heat wave. The WPSH had four westward extensions, which brought about four hot spells in southern China. The ...

  19. Heat stress related dairy cow mortality during heat waves and control periods in rural Southern Ontario from 2010?2012

    OpenAIRE

    Bishop-Williams, Katherine E.; Berke, Olaf; Pearl, David L.; Hand, Karen; Kelton, David F.

    2015-01-01

    Background Heat stress is a physiological response to extreme environmental heat such as heat waves. Heat stress can result in mortality in dairy cows when extreme heat is both rapidly changing and has a long duration. As a result of climate change, heat waves, which are defined as 3 days of temperatures of 32 ?C or above, are an increasingly frequent extreme weather phenomenon in Southern Ontario. Heat waves are increasing the risk for on-farm dairy cow mortality in Southern Ontario. Heat st...

  20. Contribution of urbanization to the increase of extreme heat events in an urban agglomeration in east China: Urbanization and the Increase of EHEs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Xuchao [Institute of Island and Coastal Ecosystems, Ocean College, Zhejiang University, Zhoushan China; Ruby Leung, L. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Zhao, Naizhuo [Department of Geosciences, Texas Tech University, Lubbock Texas USA; Zhao, Chun [School of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei China; Qian, Yun [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Hu, Kejia [Institute of Island and Coastal Ecosystems, Ocean College, Zhejiang University, Zhoushan China; Liu, Xiaoping [School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou China; Chen, Baode [Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai China

    2017-07-03

    The urban agglomeration of Yangtze River Delta (YRD) is emblematic of China’s rapid urbanization during the past decades. Based on homogenized daily maximum and minimum temperature data, the contributions of urbanization to trends of extreme temperature indices (ETIs) during summer in YRD are evaluated. Dynamically classifying the observational stations into urban and rural areas, this study presents unexplored changes in temperature extremes during the past four decades in the YRD region and quantifies the amplification of the positive trends in ETIs by the urban heat island effect. Overall, urbanization contributes to more than one third in the increase of intensity of extreme heat events in the region, which is comparable to the contribution of greenhouse gases. Compared to rural stations, more notable shifts to the right in the probability distribution of temperature and ETIs were observed in urban stations.

  1. The contribution of urbanization to recent extreme heat events and white roof mitigation strategy in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mingna

    2015-04-01

    The UHI effect can aggravate summertime heat waves and strongly influence human comfort and health, leading to greater mortality in metropolitan areas. Many geo-engineering technological strategies have been proposed to mitigate climate warming, and for the UHI, increasing the albedo of artificial urban surfaces (rooftops or pavements) has been considered a lucrative and effective way to cool cities. The objective of this work is to quantify the contribution of urbanization to recent extreme heat events of the early 21st century in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area, using the mesoscale WRF model coupled with a single urban canopy model and actual urban land cover datasets. This work also investigates a simulation of the regional effects of white roof technology by increasing the albedo of urban areas in the urban canopy model to mitigate the urban heat island, especially in extreme heat waves. The results show that urban land use characteristics that have evolved over the past ~20 years in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area have had a significant impact on the extreme temperatures occurring during extreme heat events. Simulations show that new urban development has caused an intensification and expansion of the areas experiencing extreme heat waves with an average increase in temperature of approximately 0.60°C. This change is most obvious at night with an increase up to 0.95°C, for which the total contribution of anthropogenic heat is 34%. We also simulate the effects of geo-engineering strategies increasing the albedo of urban roofs. White roofs reflect a large fraction of incoming sunlight in the daytime, which reduced the net radiation so that the roof surface keep at a lower temperature than regular solar-absorptive roofs. Urban net radiation decreases by approximately 200 W m-2 at local noon because of high solar reflectance of white roofs, which cools the daytime urban temperature afer sunrise, with the largest decrease of almost -0.80

  2. Targeting 2.5 versus 4 g/kg/day of amino acids for extremely low birth weight infants: a randomized clinical trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burattini, Ilaria; Bellagamba, Maria Paola; Spagnoli, Cristina; D'Ascenzo, Rita; Mazzoni, Nadia; Peretti, Anna; Cogo, Paola E; Carnielli, Virgilio P

    2013-11-01

    To compare the effect of 2.5 vs 4 g/kg/d of amino acid (AA) in parenteral nutrition of extremely low birth weight infants on metabolic tolerance, short-term growth, and neurodevelopment. One hundred thirty-one infants with birth weight between 500 and 1249 g were randomized to 2.5 (standard AA [SAA] group) or 4 (high AA [HAA] group) g/kg/d AA intake, with equal nonprotein energy. The primary outcome was body size at 36 weeks. One hundred thirty-one patients were randomized and 114 analyzed (58 SAA group and 56 HAA group). Study groups had similar demographics and clinical characteristics. Elevated blood urea (BU >70 mg/dL = BU nitrogen >32.6 mg/dL) occurred in 24% vs 59% (P = .000) and hyperglycemia (>175 mg/dL) in 34% vs 11% (P = .003) of the SAA and HAA patients, respectively. Body weight, length, and head circumference at 36 weeks and 2 years were similar between groups. Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development, Third Edition score was 94 ± 13 in the SAA group and 97 ± 15 in the HAA group (P = .35). The HAA group had higher BU levels and better glucose control. An extra 8 g/kg of AA over the first 10 days of life did not improve growth and neurodevelopment. Copyright © 2013 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Extreme Heat Resistance of Food Borne Pathogens Campylobacter jejuni, Escherichia coli, and Salmonella typhimurium on Chicken Breast Fillet during Cooking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de Jong, Aarieke E I; van Asselt, Esther D; Zwietering, Marcel H

    2012-01-01

    cooking enlarged the heat resistance of the food borne pathogens. Additionally, a high challenge temperature or fast heating rate contributed to the level of heat resistance. The data were used to assess the probability of illness (campylobacteriosis) due to consumption of chicken fillet as a function...

  4. The effect of hot days on occupational heat stress in the manufacturing industry: implications for workers' well-being and productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pogačar, Tjaša; Casanueva, Ana; Kozjek, Katja; Ciuha, Urša; Mekjavić, Igor B.; Kajfež Bogataj, Lučka; Črepinšek, Zalika

    2018-03-01

    Climate change is expected to exacerbate heat stress at the workplace in temperate regions, such as Slovenia. It is therefore of paramount importance to study present and future summer heat conditions and analyze the impact of heat on workers. A set of climate indices based on summer mean (Tmean) and maximum (Tmax) air temperatures, such as the number of hot days (HD: Tmax above 30 °C), and Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) were used to account for heat conditions in Slovenia at six locations in the period 1981-2010. Observed trends (1961-2011) of Tmean and Tmax in July were positive, being larger in the eastern part of the country. Climate change projections showed an increase up to 4.5 °C for mean temperature and 35 days for HD by the end of the twenty-first century under the high emission scenario. The increase in WBGT was smaller, although sufficiently high to increase the frequency of days with a high risk of heat stress up to an average of a third of the summer days. A case study performed at a Slovenian automobile parts manufacturing plant revealed non-optimal working conditions during summer 2016 (WBGT mainly between 20 and 25 °C). A survey conducted on 400 workers revealed that 96% perceived the temperature conditions as unsuitable, and 56% experienced headaches and fatigue. Given these conditions and climate change projections, the escalating problem of heat is worrisome. The European Commission initiated a program of research within the Horizon 2020 program to develop a heat warning system for European workers and employers, which will incorporate case-specific solutions to mitigate heat stress.

  5. Performance of a day/night water heat storage system for heating and cooling of semi-closed greenhouses in mild winter climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baeza, E.J.; Pérez Parra, J.J.; López, J.C.; Gázquez, J.C.; Meca, D.E.; Stanghellini, C.; Kempkes, F.L.K.; Montero, J.I.

    2012-01-01

    A novel system for heating/cooling greenhouses based on air/water heat exchangers connected to a thermally stratified water storage tank was tested in a small greenhouse compartment at the Experimental Station of the Cajamar Foundation in Almería, Spain. The system maintained a closed greenhouse (no

  6. Heat Stress

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Publications and Products Programs Contact NIOSH NIOSH HEAT STRESS Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir OSHA-NIOSH ... hot environments may be at risk of heat stress. Exposure to extreme heat can result in occupational ...

  7. A quantitative determination of air-water heat fluxes in Hermit Lake, New Hampshire under varying meteorological conditions, time of day, and time of year

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kyper, Nicholas D.

    An extensive heat flux study is performed at Hermit Lake, New Hampshire from May 26, 2010 till November 7, 2010 to determine the effects of the five individual heat fluxes on Hermit Lake and the surrounding amphibian community. Hermit Lake was chosen due to the relatively long meteorological observations record within the White Mountains of New Hampshire, a new lakeside meteorological station, and ongoing phenology studies of the surrounding eco-system. Utilizing meteorological data from the lakeside weather station and moored water temperature sensors, the incident (Qi), blackbody ( Qbnet ), latent (Qe), sensible (Q s), and net (Qn) heat fluxes are calculated. The incident heat flux is the dominate term in the net flux, accounting for 93% of the variance found in Qn and producing a heat gain of ˜ 19x108 J m-2 throughout the period of study. This large gain produces a net gain of heat in the lake until October 1, 2010, where gains by Qi are offset by the large combined losses of Qbnet , Qs, and Qe thereby producing a gradual decline of heat within the lake. The latent and blackbody heat fluxes produce the largest losses of heat in the net heat flux with a total losses of ˜ -8x108 J m-2 and ˜ -7x108 J m-2, respectively. The sensible heat flux is negligible, producing a total minimal loss of ˜ -1x108 J m-2. Overall the net heat produces a net gain of heat of 2x108 J m-2 throughout the study period. Frog calls indicative of breeding are recorded from May 26, 2010 until August 16, 2010. The spring peeper, American toad, and green frog each produced enough actively calling days to be compared to air temperature, surface water temperature, and wind speed data, as well as data from the five heat fluxes. Linear regression analysis reveals that certain water temperature thresholds affect the calling activities of the spring peeper and green frog, while higher wind speeds have a dramatic effect on the calling activities of both the green frog and American toad. All three

  8. Enhancing Extreme Heat Health-Related Intervention and Preparedness Activities Using Remote Sensing Analysis of Daily Surface Temperature, Surface Observation Networks and Ecmwf Reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, R. L.; Booth, J.; Hondula, D.; Ross, K. W.; Stuyvesant, A.; Alm, G.; Baghel, E.

    2015-12-01

    Extreme heat causes more human fatalities in the United States than any other natural disaster, elevating the concern of heat-related mortality. Maricopa County Arizona is known for its high heat index and its sprawling metropolitan complex which makes this region a perfect candidate for human health research. Individuals at higher risk are unequally spatially distributed, leaving the poor, homeless, non-native English speakers, elderly, and the socially isolated vulnerable to heat events. The Arizona Department of Health Services, Arizona State University and NASA DEVELOP LaRC are working to establish a more effective method of placing hydration and cooling centers in addition to enhancing the heat warning system to aid those with the highest exposure. Using NASA's Earth Observation Systems from Aqua and Terra satellites, the daily spatial variability within the UHI was quantified over the summer heat seasons from 2005 - 2014, effectively establishing a remotely sensed surface temperature climatology for the county. A series of One-way Analysis of Variance revealed significant differences between daily surface temperature averages of the top 30% of census tracts within the study period. Furthermore, synoptic upper tropospheric circulation patterns were classified to relate surface weather types and heat index. The surface weather observation networks were also reviewed for analyzing the veracity of the other methods. The results provide detailed information regarding nuances within the UHI effect and will allow pertinent recommendations regarding the health department's adaptive capacity. They also hold essential components for future policy decision-making regarding appropriate locations for cooling centers and efficient warning systems.

  9. Insurance against weather risk : use of heating degree-days from non-local stations for weather derivatives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.

    2003-01-01

    Weather derivatives enable policy-holders to safeguard themselves against extreme weather conditions. The effectiveness and the efficiency of the risk transfer is determined by the spatial risk basis, which is the stochastic dependency of the local weather outcome being insured and the outcome of

  10. Deforestation intensifies hot days

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoy, Paul C.

    2018-05-01

    Deforestation often increases land-surface and near-surface temperatures, but climate models struggle to simulate this effect. Research now shows that deforestation has increased the severity of extreme heat in temperate regions of North America and Europe. This points to opportunities to mitigate extreme heat.

  11. Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Wehner

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI experimental protocol provides a multi-model database to compare the effects of stabilizing anthropogenic global warming of 1.5 °C over preindustrial levels to 2.0 °C over these levels. The HAPPI experiment is based upon large ensembles of global atmospheric models forced by sea surface temperature and sea ice concentrations plausible for these stabilization levels. This paper examines changes in extremes of high temperatures averaged over three consecutive days. Changes in this measure of extreme temperature are also compared to changes in hot season temperatures. We find that over land this measure of extreme high temperature increases from about 0.5 to 1.5 °C over present-day values in the 1.5 °C stabilization scenario, depending on location and model. We further find an additional 0.25 to 1.0 °C increase in extreme high temperatures over land in the 2.0 °C stabilization scenario. Results from the HAPPI models are consistent with similar results from the one available fully coupled climate model. However, a complicating factor in interpreting extreme temperature changes across the HAPPI models is their diversity of aerosol forcing changes.

  12. Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wehner, Michael; Stone, Dáithí; Mitchell, Dann; Shiogama, Hideo; Fischer, Erich; Graff, Lise S.; Kharin, Viatcheslav V.; Lierhammer, Ludwig; Sanderson, Benjamin; Krishnan, Harinarayan

    2018-03-01

    The half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI) experimental protocol provides a multi-model database to compare the effects of stabilizing anthropogenic global warming of 1.5 °C over preindustrial levels to 2.0 °C over these levels. The HAPPI experiment is based upon large ensembles of global atmospheric models forced by sea surface temperature and sea ice concentrations plausible for these stabilization levels. This paper examines changes in extremes of high temperatures averaged over three consecutive days. Changes in this measure of extreme temperature are also compared to changes in hot season temperatures. We find that over land this measure of extreme high temperature increases from about 0.5 to 1.5 °C over present-day values in the 1.5 °C stabilization scenario, depending on location and model. We further find an additional 0.25 to 1.0 °C increase in extreme high temperatures over land in the 2.0 °C stabilization scenario. Results from the HAPPI models are consistent with similar results from the one available fully coupled climate model. However, a complicating factor in interpreting extreme temperature changes across the HAPPI models is their diversity of aerosol forcing changes.

  13. Extreme Heat Resistance of Food Borne Pathogens Campylobacter jejuni, Escherichia coli, and Salmonella typhimurium on Chicken Breast Fillet during Cooking

    OpenAIRE

    de Jong, Aarieke E. I.; van Asselt, Esther D.; Zwietering, Marcel H.; Nauta, Maarten J.; de Jonge, Rob

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this research was to determine the decimal reduction times of bacteria present on chicken fillet in boiling water. The experiments were conducted with Campylobacter jejuni, Salmonella, and Escherichia coli. Whole chicken breast fillets were inoculated with the pathogens, stored overnight (4∘C), and subsequently cooked. The surface temperature reached 70∘C within 30 sec and 85∘C within one minute. Extremely high decimal reduction times of 1.90, 1.97, and 2.20 min were obtained fo...

  14. Generation and development of damage in double forged tungsten in different combined regimes of irradiation with extreme heat loads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paju, Jana; Väli, Berit; Laas, Tõnu; Shirokova, Veroonika; Laas, Katrin; Paduch, Marian; Gribkov, Vladimir A.; Demina, Elena V.; Prusakova, Marina D.; Pimenov, Valeri N.; Makhlaj, Vadym A.; Antonov, Maksim

    2017-11-01

    Armour materials in fusion devices, especially in the region of divertor, are exposed to a continuous heat and particle load. In addition, several off-normal events can reach the material during a work session. Calculations show that the effects of plasma and heat during such events can lead to cracking, erosion and detachment of the armour material. On the other hand, mutual and combined influences of different kinds of heat and particle loads can lead to the amplification of defects or vice versa, to the mitigation of damages. Therefore, the purpose of the study is to investigate the plasma induced damages on samples of double forged tungsten, which is considered a potential candidate for armour material of future tokamak's divertor. The combined effect of different kinds of plasma induced damages was investigated and analysed in this research. The study was conducted by irradiating the samples in various irradiation regimes twice, to observe the accumulation of the damages. Afterwards the analysis of micro-topography, scanning electron microscopy images and electrical conductivity measurements was used. Results indicate that double-forging improved the tungsten's durability to irradiation. Nevertheless, powerful pulses lead to significant damage of the sample, which will lead to further deterioration in the bulk. Although the average micro-roughness on the sample's surface does not change, the overall height/depth ratios can change.

  15. Climate impacts on extreme energy consumption of different types of buildings.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingcai Li

    Full Text Available Exploring changes of building energy consumption and its relationships with climate can provide basis for energy-saving and carbon emission reduction. Heating and cooling energy consumption of different types of buildings during 1981-2010 in Tianjin city, was simulated by using TRNSYS software. Daily or hourly extreme energy consumption was determined by percentile methods, and the climate impact on extreme energy consumption was analyzed. The results showed that days of extreme heating consumption showed apparent decrease during the recent 30 years for residential and large venue buildings, whereas days of extreme cooling consumption increased in large venue building. No significant variations were found for the days of extreme energy consumption for commercial building, although a decreasing trend in extreme heating energy consumption. Daily extreme energy consumption for large venue building had no relationship with climate parameters, whereas extreme energy consumption for commercial and residential buildings was related to various climate parameters. Further multiple regression analysis suggested heating energy consumption for commercial building was affected by maximum temperature, dry bulb temperature, solar radiation and minimum temperature, which together can explain 71.5 % of the variation of the daily extreme heating energy consumption. The daily extreme cooling energy consumption for commercial building was only related to the wet bulb temperature (R2= 0.382. The daily extreme heating energy consumption for residential building was affected by 4 climate parameters, but the dry bulb temperature had the main impact. The impacts of climate on hourly extreme heating energy consumption has a 1-3 hour delay in all three types of buildings, but no delay was found in the impacts of climate on hourly extreme cooling energy consumption for the selected buildings.

  16. Climate impacts on extreme energy consumption of different types of buildings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Mingcai; Shi, Jun; Guo, Jun; Cao, Jingfu; Niu, Jide; Xiong, Mingming

    2015-01-01

    Exploring changes of building energy consumption and its relationships with climate can provide basis for energy-saving and carbon emission reduction. Heating and cooling energy consumption of different types of buildings during 1981-2010 in Tianjin city, was simulated by using TRNSYS software. Daily or hourly extreme energy consumption was determined by percentile methods, and the climate impact on extreme energy consumption was analyzed. The results showed that days of extreme heating consumption showed apparent decrease during the recent 30 years for residential and large venue buildings, whereas days of extreme cooling consumption increased in large venue building. No significant variations were found for the days of extreme energy consumption for commercial building, although a decreasing trend in extreme heating energy consumption. Daily extreme energy consumption for large venue building had no relationship with climate parameters, whereas extreme energy consumption for commercial and residential buildings was related to various climate parameters. Further multiple regression analysis suggested heating energy consumption for commercial building was affected by maximum temperature, dry bulb temperature, solar radiation and minimum temperature, which together can explain 71.5 % of the variation of the daily extreme heating energy consumption. The daily extreme cooling energy consumption for commercial building was only related to the wet bulb temperature (R2= 0.382). The daily extreme heating energy consumption for residential building was affected by 4 climate parameters, but the dry bulb temperature had the main impact. The impacts of climate on hourly extreme heating energy consumption has a 1-3 hour delay in all three types of buildings, but no delay was found in the impacts of climate on hourly extreme cooling energy consumption for the selected buildings.

  17. Temporal Changes in Mortality Related to Extreme Temperatures for 15 Cities in Northeast Asia: Adaptation to Heat and Maladaptation to Cold.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Yeonseung; Noh, Heesang; Honda, Yasushi; Hashizume, Masahiro; Bell, Michelle L; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Kim, Ho

    2017-05-15

    Understanding how the temperature-mortality association worldwide changes over time is crucial to addressing questions of human adaptation under climate change. Previous studies investigated the temporal changes in the association over a few discrete time frames or assumed a linear change. Also, most studies focused on attenuation of heat-related mortality and studied the United States or Europe. This research examined continuous temporal changes (potentially nonlinear) in mortality related to extreme temperature (both heat and cold) for 15 cities in Northeast Asia (1972-2009). We used a generalized linear model with splines to simultaneously capture 2 types of nonlinearity: nonlinear association between temperature and mortality and nonlinear change over time in the association. We combined city-specific results to generate country-specific results using Bayesian hierarchical modeling. Cold-related mortality remained roughly constant over decades and slightly increased in the late 2000s, with a larger increase for cardiorespiratory deaths than for deaths from other causes. Heat-related mortality rates have decreased continuously over time, with more substantial decrease in earlier decades, for older populations and for cardiorespiratory deaths. Our findings suggest that future assessment of health effects of climate change should account for the continuous changes in temperature-related health risk and variations by factors such as age, cause of death, and location. © Crown copyright 2017.

  18. Quantifying Vulnerability to Extreme Heat in Time Series Analyses: A Novel Approach Applied to Neighborhood Social Disparities under Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benmarhnia, Tarik; Grenier, Patrick; Brand, Allan; Fournier, Michel; Deguen, Séverine; Smargiassi, Audrey

    2015-09-22

    We propose a novel approach to examine vulnerability in the relationship between heat and years of life lost and apply to neighborhood social disparities in Montreal and Paris. We used historical data from the summers of 1990 through 2007 for Montreal and from 2004 through 2009 for Paris to estimate daily years of life lost social disparities (DYLLD), summarizing social inequalities across groups. We used Generalized Linear Models to separately estimate relative risks (RR) for DYLLD in association with daily mean temperatures in both cities. We used 30 climate scenarios of daily mean temperature to estimate future temperature distributions (2021-2050). We performed random effect meta-analyses to assess the impact of climate change by climate scenario for each city and compared the impact of climate change for the two cities using a meta-regression analysis. We show that an increase in ambient temperature leads to an increase in social disparities in daily years of life lost. The impact of climate change on DYLLD attributable to temperature was of 2.06 (95% CI: 1.90, 2.25) in Montreal and 1.77 (95% CI: 1.61, 1.94) in Paris. The city explained a difference of 0.31 (95% CI: 0.14, 0.49) on the impact of climate change. We propose a new analytical approach for estimating vulnerability in the relationship between heat and health. Our results suggest that in Paris and Montreal, health disparities related to heat impacts exist today and will increase in the future.

  19. Starting Ovsynch protocol on day 6 of first postpartum estrous cycle increased fertility in dairy cows by affecting ovarian response during heat stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dirandeh, E

    2014-10-01

    The objective was to compare fertility in cows using an Ovsynch protocol starting on day 6 of first postpartum estrous cycle with an Ovsynch protocol initiated at random stages of the estrous cycle during heat stress (temperature-humidity index (THI)=77-83). Cows (n=459) at the beginning of the lactation period were randomly assigned to time-of-ovulation synchronization treatments: (1) control, Ovsynch (first GnRH treatment, PGF2α treatment 7 days later, second GnRH treatment 56 h later, and TAI 16 h later), initiated at random stages of the estrous cycle (40 ± 2 days postpartum, n=224) and (2) Ovsynch initiated on day 6 of first postpartum estrous cycle (estrus=day 0) based on detection of the first estrus after day 30 postpartum (O6, 35 ± 2 postpartum, n=235). Statistical analyses were conducted using SAS. The percentage of cows responding to the initial GnRH injection using the Ovsynch protocol was greater with the O6 treatment compared to the control treatment (60.4% compared with 52.6%). The percentage of cows having a corpus luteum (CL) on the day of the PGF2α injection was not different among treatments (control=87.0% and O6=90.2%, respectively). Also more cows in the O6 treatment group responded to the second GnRH injection of the Ovsynch protocol compared with control treatments (82.5% compared with 75.8%). Treatment affected the percentage of cows diagnosed pregnant at 32 ± 0.7 days and 60 ± 3 days after the resynchronized timing of AI but pregnancy losses (5.3% compared with 6.8%) did not differ between treatment groups. It is concluded that initiating the Ovsynch protocol 6 days after estrus during the first 40 days postpartum resulted in a greater pregnancy rate at the synchronized estrus and increased fertility compared with control cows during heat stress. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Global predictability of temperature extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coughlan de Perez, Erin; van Aalst, Maarten; Bischiniotis, Konstantinos; Mason, Simon; Nissan, Hannah; Pappenberger, Florian; Stephens, Elisabeth; Zsoter, Ervin; van den Hurk, Bart

    2018-05-01

    Extreme temperatures are one of the leading causes of death and disease in both developed and developing countries, and heat extremes are projected to rise in many regions. To reduce risk, heatwave plans and cold weather plans have been effectively implemented around the world. However, much of the world’s population is not yet protected by such systems, including many data-scarce but also highly vulnerable regions. In this study, we assess at a global level where such systems have the potential to be effective at reducing risk from temperature extremes, characterizing (1) long-term average occurrence of heatwaves and coldwaves, (2) seasonality of these extremes, and (3) short-term predictability of these extreme events three to ten days in advance. Using both the NOAA and ECMWF weather forecast models, we develop global maps indicating a first approximation of the locations that are likely to benefit from the development of seasonal preparedness plans and/or short-term early warning systems for extreme temperature. The extratropics generally show both short-term skill as well as strong seasonality; in the tropics, most locations do also demonstrate one or both. In fact, almost 5 billion people live in regions that have seasonality and predictability of heatwaves and/or coldwaves. Climate adaptation investments in these regions can take advantage of seasonality and predictability to reduce risks to vulnerable populations.

  1. Liquid Fuel from Heat-Loving Microorganisms: H2-Dependent Conversion of CO2 to Liquid Electrofuels by Extremely Thermophilic Archaea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2010-07-01

    Electrofuels Project: NC State is working with the University of Georgia to create Electrofuels from primitive organisms called extremophiles that evolved before photosynthetic organisms and live in extreme, hot water environments with temperatures ranging from 167-212 degrees Fahrenheit The team is genetically engineering these microorganisms so they can use hydrogen to turn carbon dioxide directly into alcohol-based fuels. High temperatures are required to distill the biofuels from the water where the organisms live, but the heat-tolerant organisms will continue to thrive even as the biofuels are being distilled—making the fuel-production process more efficient. The microorganisms don’t require light, so they can be grown anywhere—inside a dark reactor or even in an underground facility.

  2. Workshop day on ``films and droplets heat transport``; Journee d`etude sur ``le transport de chaleur par films ou gouttelettes``

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-12-31

    This workshop day was organized by the French society of thermal engineers (SFT). This compilation of proceedings comprises 9 papers dealing with: the effect of droplets evaporation on a poly-dispersed jet under pressure (application to combustion chambers of diesel engines); effect of two-phase heat exchanges on the performances of a piston engine; heat and mass transfers in the entering region of a laminar liquid film; mass transfer at the interface of a free or sheared turbulent film; measurement of gasoline films thickness using laser induced fluorescence - evaluation of the evaporation quickness using several tracers (application to the intake manifold of port-injected and of indirect injection spark ignition engines); heat transfers and condensation inside ducts for the evacuation of combustion products; evaporation of a climbing film on a wall with discontinuous fins (application to the ebullition in heat exchangers); temperature measurement of droplets in a mono-dispersed jet using IR technique and refractometry; influence of homogeneous and isotropic turbulence on the vaporization of fuel droplets. (J.S.)

  3. Workshop day on ``films and droplets heat transport``; Journee d`etude sur ``le transport de chaleur par films ou gouttelettes``

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-12-31

    This workshop day was organized by the French society of thermal engineers (SFT). This compilation of proceedings comprises 9 papers dealing with: the effect of droplets evaporation on a poly-dispersed jet under pressure (application to combustion chambers of diesel engines); effect of two-phase heat exchanges on the performances of a piston engine; heat and mass transfers in the entering region of a laminar liquid film; mass transfer at the interface of a free or sheared turbulent film; measurement of gasoline films thickness using laser induced fluorescence - evaluation of the evaporation quickness using several tracers (application to the intake manifold of port-injected and of indirect injection spark ignition engines); heat transfers and condensation inside ducts for the evacuation of combustion products; evaporation of a climbing film on a wall with discontinuous fins (application to the ebullition in heat exchangers); temperature measurement of droplets in a mono-dispersed jet using IR technique and refractometry; influence of homogeneous and isotropic turbulence on the vaporization of fuel droplets. (J.S.)

  4. Extreme warmth and heat-stressed plankton in the tropics during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frieling, Joost; Gebhardt, Holger; Huber, Matthew; Adekeye, Olabisi A; Akande, Samuel O; Reichart, Gert-Jan; Middelburg, Jack J; Schouten, Stefan; Sluijs, Appy

    2017-03-01

    Global ocean temperatures rapidly warmed by ~5°C during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; ~56 million years ago). Extratropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) met or exceeded modern subtropical values. With these warm extratropical temperatures, climate models predict tropical SSTs >35°C-near upper physiological temperature limits for many organisms. However, few data are available to test these projected extreme tropical temperatures or their potential lethality. We identify the PETM in a shallow marine sedimentary section deposited in Nigeria. On the basis of planktonic foraminiferal Mg/Ca and oxygen isotope ratios and the molecular proxy [Formula: see text], latest Paleocene equatorial SSTs were ~33°C, and [Formula: see text] indicates that SSTs rose to >36°C during the PETM. This confirms model predictions on the magnitude of polar amplification and refutes the tropical thermostat theory. We attribute a massive drop in dinoflagellate abundance and diversity at peak warmth to thermal stress, showing that the base of tropical food webs is vulnerable to rapid warming.

  5. Pulsed Laser Techniques in Laser Heated Diamond Anvil Cells for Studying Methane (CH4) and Water (H2O) at Extreme Pressures and Temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holtgrewe, N.; Lobanov, S.; Mahmood, M.; Goncharov, A. F.

    2017-12-01

    Scientific advancement in the fields of high pressure material synthesis and research on planetary interiors rely heavily on a variety of techniques for probing such extreme conditions, such as laser-heating diamond anvil cells (LHDACs) (Goncharov et al., J. Synch. Rad., 2009) and shock compression (Nellis et al., J. Chem. Phys., 2001/ Armstrong et al., Appl. Phys. Lett., 2008). However, certain chemical properties can create complications in the detection of such extreme states, for example the instability of energetic materials, and detection of these dynamic chemical states by time-resolved methods has proven to be valuable in exploring the kinetics of these materials. Current efforts at the Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS) for exploring the transitions between different phases of condensed matter (Armstrong et. al., APS Mar. Meeting, 2017/ Radousky et al., APS Mar. Meeting, 2017), and X-ray synchrotron pulsed heating are useful techniques but require large facilities and are not always accessible. Instead, optical properties of materials can serve as a window into the state or structure of species through electronic absorption properties. Pump-probe spectroscopy can be used to detect these electronic properties in time and allow the user to develop a picture of complex dynamic chemical events. Here we present data acquired up to 1.5 megabar (Mbar) pressures and temperatures >3000 K using pulsed transmission/reflective spectroscopy combined with a pulsed LHDAC and time-resolved detection (streak camera) (McWilliams et. al., PNAS, 2015/ McWilliams et al., PRL, 2016). Time-resolved optical properties will be presented on methane (CH4) and water (H2O) at P-T conditions found in icy bodies such as Uranus and Neptune (Lee and Scandolo, Nature Comm., 2011). Our results show that the interiors of Uranus and Neptune are optically opaque at P-T conditions corresponding to the mantles of these icy bodies, which has implications for the unusual magnetic fields of these

  6. Effect of core body temperature, time of day, and climate conditions on behavioral patterns of lactating dairy cows experiencing mild to moderate heat stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, J D; Hall, L W; Collier, R J; Smith, J F

    2015-01-01

    Cattle show several responses to heat load, including spending more time standing. Little is known about what benefit this may provide for the animals. Data from 3 separate cooling management trials were analyzed to investigate the relationship between behavioral patterns in lactating dairy cows experiencing mild to moderate heat stress and their body temperature. Cows (n=157) were each fitted with a leg data logger that measured position and an intravaginal data logger that measures core body temperature (CBT). Ambient conditions were also collected. All data were standardized to 5-min intervals, and information was divided into several categories: when standing and lying bouts were initiated and the continuance of each bout (7,963 lying and 6,276 standing bouts). In one location, cows were continuously subjected to heat-stress levels according to temperature-humidity index (THI) range (THI≥72). The THI range for the other 2 locations was below and above a heat-stress threshold of 72 THI. Overall and regardless of period of day, cows stood up at greater CBT compared with continuing to stand or switching to a lying position. In contrast, cows lay down at lower CBT compared with continuing to lie or switching to a standing position, and lying bouts lasted longer when cows had lower CBT. Standing bouts also lasted longer when cattle had greater CBT, and they were less likely to lie down (less than 50% of lying bouts initiated) when their body temperature was over 38.8°C. Also, cow standing behavior was affected once THI reached 68. Increasing CBT decreased lying duration and increased standing duration. A CBT of 38.93°C marked a 50% likelihood a cow would be standing. This is the first physiological evidence that standing may help cool cows and provides insight into a communally observed behavioral response to heat. Copyright © 2015 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Three-dimensional resistivity tomography in extreme coastal terrain amidst dense cultural signals: application to cliff stability assessment at the historic D-Day site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Udphuay, Suwimon; Günther, Thomas; Everett, Mark E.; Warden, Robert R.; Briaud, Jean-Louis

    2011-04-01

    Pointe du Hoc overlooking the English Channel in Normandy, France was host to one of the most important military engagements of World War II but is vulnerable to cliff collapses that threaten important German fortifications including the forward observation post (OP) and Rudder's command post. The objective of this study is to apply advanced 3-D resistivity tomography towards a detailed site stability assessment with special attention to the two at-risk buildings. 3-D resistivity tomography data sets at Pointe du Hoc in the presence of extreme topography and dense cultural clutter have been successfully acquired, inverted and interpreted. A cliff stability hazard assessment scheme has been designed in which regions of high resistivity are interpreted as zones of open, dry fractures with a moderate mass movement potential. Regions of low resistivity are zones of wet, clay-filled fractures with a high mass movement potential. The OP tomography results indicate that the highest mass movement hazard appears to be associated with the marine caverns at the base of the cliff that are positioned at the point of strongest wave attack. These caverns likely occupy the future site of development of a sea arch that will threaten the OP building. The mass movement potential at the Rudder's command post area is low to moderate. The greatest risk there is associated with soil wedge failures at the top of the cliffs.

  8. Effects of repeated 9 and 30-day exposure to extremely low-frequency electromagnetic fields on social recognition behavior and estrogen receptors expression in olfactory bulb of Wistar female rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernal-Mondragón, C; Arriaga-Avila, V; Martínez-Abundis, E; Barrera-Mera, B; Mercado-Gómez, O; Guevara-Guzmán, R

    2017-02-01

    We investigated the short- and long-term effects of extremely low-frequency electromagnetic fields (EMF) on social recognition behavior and expression of α- and β-estrogen receptors (ER). Rats were exposed to 60-Hz electromagnetic fields for 9 or 30 days and tested for social recognition behavior. Immunohistochemistry and western blot assays were performed to evaluate α- and β-ER expression in the olfactory bulb of intact, ovariectomized (OVX), and ovariectomized+estradiol (E2) replacement (OVX+E2). Ovariectomization showed impairment of social recognition after 9 days of EMF exposure and a complete recovery after E2 replacement and so did those after 30 days. Short EMF exposure increased expression of β-ER in intact, but not in the others. Longer exposure produced a decrease in intact but an increase in OVX and OVX+E2. Our findings suggest a significant role for β-estrogen receptors and a lack of effect for α-estrogen receptors on a social recognition task. EMF: extremely low frequency electromagnetic fields; ERs: estrogen receptors; OB: olfactory bulb; OVX: ovariectomized; OVX + E 2 : ovariectomized + estradiol replacement; IEI: interexposure interval; β-ER: beta estrogen receptor; E 2 : replacement of estradiol; GAPDH: glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase; WB: Western blot; PBS: phosphate-buffer saline; PB: phosphate-buffer.

  9. The Concomitant Use of Diuretics, Non-Steroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drugs, and Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitors or Angiotensin Receptor Blockers (Triple Whammy), Extreme Heat, and In-Hospital Acute Kidney Injury in Older Medical Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mangoni, Arduino A; Kholmurodova, Feruza; Mayner, Lidia; Hakendorf, Paul; Woodman, Richard J

    2017-11-01

    We investigated whether the concomitant use of diuretics, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers (triple whammy, TW) predicts in-hospital acute kidney injury (AKI) and whether admission during recorded periods of extreme heat influences this association. We retrospectively collected data on patient characteristics and use of TW/non-TW drugs on admission, AKI (increase in serum creatinine ≥ 27 µmol/l either within the first 48 h of admission or throughout hospitalization, primary outcome), length of stay (LOS), and mortality (secondary outcomes) in medical patients ≥65 years admitted (1) during five consecutive heat waves (HWs) between 2007 and 2009 (n = 382) or (2) either before or after each HW, matched for HW period, age, and admission day of the week (non-HW, controls, n = 1339). Number of TW and non-TW drugs, co-morbidities, number of daily admissions, incidence of in-hospital AKI, LOS, and mortality were similar in the HW and non-HW groups. After adjusting for clinical and demographic confounders, logistic regression showed that TW use did not predict AKI within 48 h of admission either during non-HW periods (OR 0.79, 95% CI 0.34-1.83, P = 0.58) or during HWs (OR 1.02, 95% CI 0.21-2.97, P = 0.97). Similar results were observed when AKI was captured throughout hospitalization. TW use did not predict LOS or mortality irrespective of environmental temperature on admission. TW use on admission did not predict in-hospital AKI, LOS, or mortality in older medical patients admitted either during periods of normal environmental temperature or during HWs.

  10. Drought and Heat Differentially Affect XTH Expression and XET Activity and Action in 3-Day-Old Seedlings of Durum Wheat Cultivars with Different Stress Susceptibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iurlaro, Andrea; De Caroli, Monica; Sabella, Erika; De Pascali, Mariarosaria; Rampino, Patrizia; De Bellis, Luigi; Perrotta, Carla; Dalessandro, Giuseppe; Piro, Gabriella; Fry, Stephen C; Lenucci, Marcello S

    2016-01-01

    Heat and drought stress have emerged as major constraints for durum wheat production. In the Mediterranean area, their negative effect on crop productivity is expected to be exacerbated by the occurring climate change. Xyloglucan endotransglucosylase/hydrolases (XTHs) are chief enzymes in cell wall remodeling, whose relevance in cell expansion and morphogenesis suggests a central role in stress responses. In this work the potential role of XTHs in abiotic stress tolerance was investigated in durum wheat. The separate effects of dehydration and heat exposure on XTH expression and its endotransglucosylase (XET) in vitro activity and in vivo action have been monitored, up to 24 h, in the apical and sub-apical root regions and shoots excised from 3-day-old seedlings of durum wheat cultivars differing in stress susceptibility/tolerance. Dehydration and heat stress differentially influence the XTH expression profiles and the activity and action of XET in the wheat seedlings, depending on the degree of susceptibility/tolerance of the cultivars, the organ, the topological region of the root and, within the root, on the gradient of cell differentiation. The root apical region was the zone mainly affected by both treatments in all assayed cultivars, while no change in XET activity was observed at shoot level, irrespective of susceptibility/tolerance, confirming the pivotal role of the root in stress perception, signaling, and response. Conflicting effects were observed depending on stress type: dehydration evoked an overall increase, at least in the apical region of the root, of XET activity and action, while a significant inhibition was caused by heat treatment in most cultivars. The data suggest that differential changes in XET action in defined portions of the root of young durum wheat seedlings may have a role as a response to drought and heat stress, thus contributing to seedling survival and crop establishment. A thorough understanding of the mechanisms underlying

  11. Urban Heat Wave Hazard Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, D. A.; Jedlovec, G.; Crane, D. L.; Meyer, P. J.; LaFontaine, F.

    2016-12-01

    Heat waves are one of the largest causes of environmentally-related deaths globally and are likely to become more numerous as a result of climate change. The intensification of heat waves by the urban heat island effect and elevated humidity, combined with urban demographics, are key elements leading to these disasters. Better warning of the potential hazards may help lower risks associated with heat waves. Moderate resolution thermal data from NASA satellites is used to derive high spatial resolution estimates of apparent temperature (heat index) over urban regions. These data, combined with demographic data, are used to produce a daily heat hazard/risk map for selected cities. MODIS data are used to derive daily composite maximum and minimum land surface temperature (LST) fields to represent the amplitude of the diurnal temperature cycle and identify extreme heat days. Compositing routines are used to generate representative daily maximum and minimum LSTs for the urban environment. The limited effect of relative humidity on the apparent temperature (typically 10-15%) allows for the use of modeled moisture fields to convert LST to apparent temperature without loss of spatial variability. The daily max/min apparent temperature fields are used to identify abnormally extreme heat days relative to climatological values in order to produce a heat wave hazard map. Reference to climatological values normalizes the hazard for a particular region (e.g., the impact of an extreme heat day). A heat wave hazard map has been produced for several case study periods and then computed on a quasi-operational basis during the summer of 2016 for Atlanta, GA, Chicago, IL, St. Louis, MO, and Huntsville, AL. A hazard does not become a risk until someone or something is exposed to that hazard at a level that might do harm. Demographic information is used to assess the urban risk associated with the heat wave hazard. Collectively, the heat wave hazard product can warn people in urban

  12. Effect of Various External Shading Devices on Windows for Minimum Heat Gain and Adequate Day lighting into Buildings of Hot and Dry Climatic Zone in India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kirankumar Gorantla

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Glass is the major component of the building envelope to provide visual comfort to inside the buildings. In général clear and bronze glass was used as a main building envelope for both residential and commercial buildings to provide better day lighting into the buildings. If we use more glass area as a building envelope more radiation allows into the buildings. So that it is necessary to reduce more solar radiation and provide sufficient daylight factor inside the building's through glass windows with the help of external devices called shading devices. In this work four shading devices was tried on bronze glass window to find the heat gain and daylighting into buildings. This paper presents the experimental measurement of spectral characteristics of bronze glass which include transmission and reflection in entire solar spectrum region (300nm-2500nm based on ASTM standards. A MATLAB code was developed to compute visible and solar optical properties as per the British standards. A building model was designed by design builder software tool. 40% window to wall ratio was considered for building models, thermal and day lighting analysis of buildings through windows was carried out in Energy plus software tool for hot and dry climatic zone of India.

  13. Extreme Weather Impacts on Maize Yield: The Case of Shanxi Province in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taoyuan Wei

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Extreme weather can have negative impacts on crop production. In this study, we statistically estimate the impacts of dry days, heat waves, and cold days on maize yield based on household survey data from 1993 to 2011 in ten villages of Shanxi province, China. Our results show that dry days, heat waves, and cold days have negative effects on maize yield, although these effects are marginal if these extreme events do not increase dramatically. Specifically, a one percent increase in extreme-heat-degree-days and consecutive-dry-days results in a maize yield declines of 0.2% and 0.07%, respectively. Maize yield also is reduced by 0.3% for cold days occurring during the growing season from May to September. However, these extreme events can increase dramatically in a warmer world and result in considerable reduction in maize yields. If all the historical temperatures in the villages are shifted up by 2 degrees Celsius, total impacts of these extreme events would lead to a reduction of maize yield by over 30 percent. The impacts may be underestimated since we did not exclude the offset effect of adaptation measures adopted by farmers to combat these extreme events.

  14. Living Day by Day

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, Rachel L.; Khoury, Cynthia El; Field, Emily R. S.; Mokhbat, Jacques

    2016-01-01

    We examined the meaning of living with HIV/AIDS among women in Lebanon. Ten women living with HIV/AIDS (WLWHA) described their experiences via semistructured in-depth interviews. They navigated a process of HIV diagnosis acceptance that incorporated six overlapping elements: receiving the news, accessing care, starting treatment, navigating disclosure decisions, negotiating stigma, and maintaining stability. Through these elements, we provide a framework for understanding three major themes that were constructed during data analysis: Stand by my side: Decisions of disclosure; Being “sick” and feeling “normal”: Interacting with self, others, and society; and Living day by day: focusing on the present. We contribute to the existing literature by providing a theoretical framework for understanding the process of diagnosis and sero-status acceptance among WLWHA. This was the first study of its kind to examine the meaning of living with HIV/AIDS among women in a Middle Eastern country. PMID:28462340

  15. Living Day by Day

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachel L. Kaplan

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available We examined the meaning of living with HIV/AIDS among women in Lebanon. Ten women living with HIV/AIDS (WLWHA described their experiences via semistructured in-depth interviews. They navigated a process of HIV diagnosis acceptance that incorporated six overlapping elements: receiving the news, accessing care, starting treatment, navigating disclosure decisions, negotiating stigma, and maintaining stability. Through these elements, we provide a framework for understanding three major themes that were constructed during data analysis: Stand by my side: Decisions of disclosure; Being “sick” and feeling “normal”: Interacting with self, others, and society; and Living day by day: focusing on the present. We contribute to the existing literature by providing a theoretical framework for understanding the process of diagnosis and sero-status acceptance among WLWHA. This was the first study of its kind to examine the meaning of living with HIV/AIDS among women in a Middle Eastern country.

  16. The circulation pattern and day-night heat transport in the atmosphere of a synchronously rotating aquaplanet: Dependence on planetary rotation rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noda, S.; Ishiwatari, M.; Nakajima, K.; Takahashi, Y. O.; Takehiro, S.; Onishi, M.; Hashimoto, G. L.; Kuramoto, K.; Hayashi, Y.-Y.

    2017-01-01

    In order to investigate a possible variety of atmospheric states realized on a synchronously rotating aquaplanet, an experiment studying the impact of planetary rotation rate is performed using an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) with simplified hydrological and radiative processes. The entire planetary surface is covered with a swamp ocean. The value of planetary rotation rate is varied from zero to the Earth's, while other parameters such as planetary radius, mean molecular weight and total mass of atmospheric dry components, and solar constant are set to the present Earth's values. The integration results show that the atmosphere reaches statistically equilibrium states for all runs; none of the calculated cases exemplifies the runaway greenhouse state. The circulation patterns obtained are classified into four types: Type-I characterized by the dominance of a day-night thermally direct circulation, Type-II characterized by a zonal wave number one resonant Rossby wave over a meridionally broad westerly jet on the equator, Type-III characterized by a long time scale north-south asymmetric variation, and Type-IV characterized by a pair of mid-latitude westerly jets. With the increase of planetary rotation rate, the circulation evolves from Type-I to Type-II and then to Type-III gradually and smoothly, whereas the change from Type-III to Type-IV is abrupt and discontinuous. Over a finite range of planetary rotation rate, both Types-III and -IV emerge as statistically steady states, constituting multiple equilibria. In spite of the substantial changes in circulation, the net energy transport from the day side to the night side remains almost insensitive to planetary rotation rate, although the partition into dry static energy and latent heat energy transports changes. The reason for this notable insensitivity is that the outgoing longwave radiation over the broad area of the day side is constrained by the radiation limit of a moist atmosphere, so that the

  17. Mandelbrot's Extremism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beirlant, J.; Schoutens, W.; Segers, J.J.J.

    2004-01-01

    In the sixties Mandelbrot already showed that extreme price swings are more likely than some of us think or incorporate in our models.A modern toolbox for analyzing such rare events can be found in the field of extreme value theory.At the core of extreme value theory lies the modelling of maxima

  18. Changes in observed climate extremes in global urban areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mishra, Vimal; Ganguly, Auroop R; Nijssen, Bart; Lettenmaier, Dennis P

    2015-01-01

    Climate extremes have profound implications for urban infrastructure and human society, but studies of observed changes in climate extremes over the global urban areas are few, even though more than half of the global population now resides in urban areas. Here, using observed station data for 217 urban areas across the globe, we show that these urban areas have experienced significant increases (p-value <0.05) in the number of heat waves during the period 1973–2012, while the frequency of cold waves has declined. Almost half of the urban areas experienced significant increases in the number of extreme hot days, while almost 2/3 showed significant increases in the frequency of extreme hot nights. Extreme windy days declined substantially during the last four decades with statistically significant declines in about 60% in the urban areas. Significant increases (p-value <0.05) in the frequency of daily precipitation extremes and in annual maximum precipitation occurred at smaller fractions (17 and 10% respectively) of the total urban areas, with about half as many urban areas showing statistically significant downtrends as uptrends. Changes in temperature and wind extremes, estimated as the result of a 40 year linear trend, differed for urban and non-urban pairs, while changes in indices of extreme precipitation showed no clear differentiation for urban and selected non-urban stations. (letter)

  19. Changing population dynamics and uneven temperature emergence combine to exacerbate regional exposure to heat extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C of warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrington, Luke J.; Otto, Friederike E. L.

    2018-03-01

    Understanding how continuing increases in global mean temperature will exacerbate societal exposure to extreme weather events is a question of profound importance. However, determining population exposure to the impacts of heat extremes at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global mean warming requires not only (1) a robust understanding of the physical climate system response, but also consideration of (2) projected changes to overall population size, as well as (3) changes to where people will live in the future. This analysis introduces a new framework, adapted from studies of probabilistic event attribution, to disentangle the relative importance of regional climate emergence and changing population dynamics in the exposure to future heat extremes across multiple densely populated regions in Southern Asia and Eastern Africa (SAEA). Our results reveal that, when population is kept at 2015 levels, exposure to heat considered severe in the present decade across SAEA will increase by a factor of 4.1 (2.4-9.6) and 15.8 (5.0-135) under a 1.5°- and 2.0°-warmer world, respectively. Furthermore, projected population changes by the end of the century under an SSP1 and SSP2 scenario can further exacerbate these changes by a factor of 1.2 (1.0-1.3) and 1.5 (1.3-1.7), respectively. However, a large fraction of this additional risk increase is not related to absolute increases in population, but instead attributed to changes in which regions exhibit continued population growth into the future. Further, this added impact of population redistribution will be twice as significant after 2.0 °C of warming, relative to stabilisation at 1.5 °C, due to the non-linearity of increases in heat exposure. Irrespective of the population scenario considered, continued African population expansion will place more people in locations where emergent changes to future heat extremes are exceptionally severe.

  20. Tidally Heated Terrestrial Exoplanets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henning, Wade Garrett

    This work models the surface and internal temperatures for hypothetical terrestrial planets in situations involving extreme tidal heating. The feasibility of such planets is evaluated in terms of the orbital perturbations that may give rise to them, their required proximity to a hoststar, and the potential for the input tidal heating to cause significant partial melting of the mantle. Trapping terrestrial planets into 2:1 resonances with migrating Hot Jupiters is considered as a reasonable way for Earth-like worlds to both maintain high eccentricities and to move to short enough orbital periods (1-20 days) for extreme tidal heating to occur. Secular resonance and secular orbital perturbations may support moderate tidal heating at a low equilibrium eccentricity. At orbital periods below 10-30 days, with eccentricities from 0.01 to 0.1, tidal heat may greatly exceed radiogenic heat production. It is unlikely to exceed insolation, except when orbiting very low luminosity hosts, and thus will have limited surface temperature expression. Observations of such bodies many not be able to detect tidal surface enhancements given a few percent uncertainty in albedo, except on the nightside of spin synchronous airless objects. Otherwise detection may occur via spectral detection of hotspots or high volcanic gas concentrations including sulfur dioxide and hydrogen sulfide. The most extreme cases may be able to produce magma oceans, or magma slush mantles with up to 40-60% melt fractions. Tides may alter the habitable zones for smaller red dwarf stars, but are generally detrimental. Multiple viscoelastic models, including the Maxwell, Voigt-Kelvin, Standard Anelastic Solid, and Burgers rheologies are explored and applied to objects such as Io and the super-Earth planet GJ 876d. The complex valued Love number for the Burgers rheology is derived and found to be a useful improvement when modeling the low temperature behavior of tidal bodies, particularly during low eccentricity

  1. TIDALLY HEATED TERRESTRIAL EXOPLANETS: VISCOELASTIC RESPONSE MODELS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henning, Wade G.; O'Connell, Richard J.; Sasselov, Dimitar D.

    2009-01-01

    Tidal friction in exoplanet systems, driven by orbits that allow for durable nonzero eccentricities at short heliocentric periods, can generate internal heating far in excess of the conditions observed in our own solar system. Secular perturbations or a notional 2:1 resonance between a hot Earth and hot Jupiter can be used as a baseline to consider the thermal evolution of convecting bodies subject to strong viscoelastic tidal heating. We compare results first from simple models using a fixed Quality factor and Love number, and then for three different viscoelastic rheologies: the Maxwell body, the Standard Anelastic Solid (SAS), and the Burgers body. The SAS and Burgers models are shown to alter the potential for extreme tidal heating by introducing the possibility of new equilibria and multiple response peaks. We find that tidal heating tends to exceed radionuclide heating at periods below 10-30 days, and exceed insolation only below 1-2 days. Extreme cases produce enough tidal heat to initiate global-scale partial melting, and an analysis of tidal limiting mechanisms such as advective cooling for earthlike planets is discussed. To explore long-term behaviors, we map equilibria points between convective heat loss and tidal heat input as functions of eccentricity. For the periods and magnitudes discussed, we show that tidal heating, if significant, is generally detrimental to the width of habitable zones.

  2. A phase II randomized clinical trial on cerebral near-infrared spectroscopy plus a treatment guideline versus treatment as usual for extremely preterm infants during the first three days of life (SafeBoosC)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hyttel-Sorensen, Simon; Austin, Topun; van Bel, Frank

    2013-01-01

    Every year in Europe about 25,000 infants are born extremely preterm. These infants have a 20% mortality rate, and 25% of survivors have severe long-term cerebral impairment. Preventative measures are key to reduce mortality and morbidity in an extremely preterm population. The primary objective ...

  3. Mathematical Analysis of Extremity Immersion Cooling for Brain Temperature Management

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Xu, Xiaojiang; Santee, William; Berglund, Larry; Gonzalez, Richard

    2004-01-01

    .... As blood flow rates and surface-to-volume ratios are generally high in the extremities, heat exchange between the body and the environment through the extremities is an important path for heat exchange...

  4. Raising Awareness on Heat Related Mortality in Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arrighi, J.; Burkart, K.; Nissan, H.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme heat is the leading cause of weather-related deaths in the United States and Europe, and was responsible for four of the ten deadliest natural disasters worldwide in 2015. Near the tropics, where hot weather is considered the norm, perceived heat risk is often low, but recent heat waves in South Asia have caught the attention of the health community, policy-makers and the public. In a recent collaboration between the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, Columbia University and BBC Media Action the effects of extreme heat in Bangladesh were analyzed and the findings were subsequently used as a basis to raise awareness about the impacts of extreme heat on the most vulnerable, to the general public. Analysis of excess heat in Bangladesh between 2003 and 2007 showed that heatwaves occur between April and June with most extreme heat events occurring in May. Between 2003 and 2007 it is estimated that an average of 1500 people died per year due to heatwaves lasting three days or longer, with an eight-day heatwave in 2005 resulting in a minimum of 3,800 excess deaths. Utilizing these findings BBC Media Action launched an online communications campaign in May 2017 ultimately reaching approximately 3.9 million people with information on reducing the impacts of extreme heat. This presentation will highlight key findings from the study of heat related mortality in Bangladesh as well as highlight the benefit of collaboration between scientists and communicators for increasing awareness about the effects of extreme heat on the most vulnerable.

  5. Extreme ion heating in the dayside ionosphere in response to the arrival of a coronal mass ejection on 12 March 2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Fujiwara

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Simultaneous measurements of the polar ionosphere with the European Incoherent Scatter (EISCAT ultra high frequency (UHF radar at Tromsø and the EISCAT Svalbard radar (ESR at Longyearbyen were made during 07:00–12:00 UT on 12 March 2012. During the period, the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE spacecraft observed changes in the solar wind which were due to the arrival of coronal mass ejection (CME effects associated with the 10 March M8.4 X-ray event. The solar wind showed two-step variations which caused strong ionospheric heating. First, the arrival of shock structures in the solar wind with enhancements of density and velocity, and a negative interplanetary magnetic field (IMF-Bz component caused strong ionospheric heating around Longyearbyen; the ion temperature at about 300 km increased from about 1100 to 3400 K over Longyearbyen while that over Tromsø increased from about 1050 to 1200 K. After the passage of the shock structures, the IMF-Bz component showed positive values and the solar wind speed and density also decreased. The second strong ionospheric heating occurred after the IMF-Bz component showed negative values again; the negative values lasted for more than 1.5 h. This solar wind variation caused stronger heating of the ionosphere in the lower latitudes than higher latitudes, suggesting expansion of the auroral oval/heating region to the lower latitude region. This study shows an example of the CME-induced dayside ionospheric heating: a short-duration and very large rise in the ion temperature which was closely related to the polar cap size and polar cap potential variations as a result of interaction between the solar wind and the magnetosphere.

  6. Extreme cosmos

    CERN Document Server

    Gaensler, Bryan

    2011-01-01

    The universe is all about extremes. Space has a temperature 270°C below freezing. Stars die in catastrophic supernova explosions a billion times brighter than the Sun. A black hole can generate 10 million trillion volts of electricity. And hypergiants are stars 2 billion kilometres across, larger than the orbit of Jupiter. Extreme Cosmos provides a stunning new view of the way the Universe works, seen through the lens of extremes: the fastest, hottest, heaviest, brightest, oldest, densest and even the loudest. This is an astronomy book that not only offers amazing facts and figures but also re

  7. Thermal Implications for Extreme Fast Charge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keyser, Matthew A [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-08-14

    Present-day thermal management systems for battery electric vehicles are inadequate in limiting the maximum temperature rise of the battery during extreme fast charging. If the battery thermal management system is not designed correctly, the temperature of the cells could reach abuse temperatures and potentially send the cells into thermal runaway. Furthermore, the cell and battery interconnect design needs to be improved to meet the lifetime expectations of the consumer. Each of these aspects is explored and addressed as well as outlining where the heat is generated in a cell, the efficiencies of power and energy cells, and what type of battery thermal management solutions are available in today's market. Thermal management is not a limiting condition with regard to extreme fast charging, but many factors need to be addressed especially for future high specific energy density cells to meet U.S. Department of Energy cost and volume goals.

  8. Standard Test Method for Measuring Extreme Heat-Transfer Rates from High-Energy Environments Using a Transient, Null-Point Calorimeter

    CERN Document Server

    American Society for Testing and Materials. Philadelphia

    2008-01-01

    1.1 This test method covers the measurement of the heat-transfer rate or the heat flux to the surface of a solid body (test sample) using the measured transient temperature rise of a thermocouple located at the null point of a calorimeter that is installed in the body and is configured to simulate a semi-infinite solid. By definition the null point is a unique position on the axial centerline of a disturbed body which experiences the same transient temperature history as that on the surface of a solid body in the absence of the physical disturbance (hole) for the same heat-flux input. 1.2 Null-point calorimeters have been used to measure high convective or radiant heat-transfer rates to bodies immersed in both flowing and static environments of air, nitrogen, carbon dioxide, helium, hydrogen, and mixtures of these and other gases. Flow velocities have ranged from zero (static) through subsonic to hypersonic, total flow enthalpies from 1.16 to greater than 4.65 × 101 MJ/kg (5 × 102 to greater than 2 × 104 ...

  9. Compound summer temperature and precipitation extremes over central Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sedlmeier, Katrin; Feldmann, H.; Schädler, G.

    2018-02-01

    Reliable knowledge of the near-future climate change signal of extremes is important for adaptation and mitigation strategies. Especially compound extremes, like heat and drought occurring simultaneously, may have a greater impact on society than their univariate counterparts and have recently become an active field of study. In this paper, we use a 12-member ensemble of high-resolution (7 km) regional climate simulations with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM over central Europe to analyze the climate change signal and its uncertainty for compound heat and drought extremes in summer by two different measures: one describing absolute (i.e., number of exceedances of absolute thresholds like hot days), the other relative (i.e., number of exceedances of time series intrinsic thresholds) compound extreme events. Changes are assessed between a reference period (1971-2000) and a projection period (2021-2050). Our findings show an increase in the number of absolute compound events for the whole investigation area. The change signal of relative extremes is more region-dependent, but there is a strong signal change in the southern and eastern parts of Germany and the neighboring countries. Especially the Czech Republic shows strong change in absolute and relative extreme events.

  10. Impact of increasing heat waves on U.S. ozone episodes in the 2050s: Results from a multimodel analysis using extreme value theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, L.; Mickley, L. J.; Gilleland, E.

    2016-04-01

    We develop a statistical model using extreme value theory to estimate the 2000-2050 changes in ozone episodes across the United States. We model the relationships between daily maximum temperature (Tmax) and maximum daily 8 h average (MDA8) ozone in May-September over 2003-2012 using a Point Process (PP) model. At ~20% of the sites, a marked decrease in the ozone-temperature slope occurs at high temperatures, defined as ozone suppression. The PP model sometimes fails to capture ozone-Tmax relationships, so we refit the ozone-Tmax slope using logistic regression and a generalized Pareto distribution model. We then apply the resulting hybrid-extreme value theory model to projections of Tmax from an ensemble of downscaled climate models. Assuming constant anthropogenic emissions at the present level, we find an average increase of 2.3 d a-1 in ozone episodes (>75 ppbv) across the United States by the 2050s, with a change of +3-9 d a-1 at many sites.

  11. Extreme genomes

    OpenAIRE

    DeLong, Edward F

    2000-01-01

    The complete genome sequence of Thermoplasma acidophilum, an acid- and heat-loving archaeon, has recently been reported. Comparative genomic analysis of this 'extremophile' is providing new insights into the metabolic machinery, ecology and evolution of thermophilic archaea.

  12. Urban climate effects on extreme temperatures in Madison, Wisconsin, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schatz, Jason; Kucharik, Christopher J.

    2015-09-01

    As climate change increases the frequency and intensity of extreme heat, cities and their urban heat island (UHI) effects are growing, as are the urban populations encountering them. These mutually reinforcing trends present a growing risk for urban populations. However, we have limited understanding of urban climates during extreme temperature episodes, when additional heat from the UHI may be most consequential. We observed a historically hot summer and historically cold winter using an array of up to 150 temperature and relative humidity sensors in and around Madison, Wisconsin, an urban area of population 402 000 surrounded by lakes and a rural landscape of agriculture, forests, wetlands, and grasslands. In the summer of 2012 (third hottest since 1869), Madison’s urban areas experienced up to twice as many hours ⩾32.2 °C (90 °F), mean July TMAX up to 1.8 °C higher, and mean July TMIN up to 5.3 °C higher than rural areas. During a record setting heat wave, dense urban areas spent over four consecutive nights above the National Weather Service nighttime heat stress threshold of 26.7 °C (80 °F), while rural areas fell below 26.7 °C nearly every night. In the winter of 2013-14 (coldest in 35 years), Madison’s most densely built urban areas experienced up to 40% fewer hours ⩽-17.8 °C (0 °F), mean January TMAX up to 1 °C higher, and mean January TMIN up to 3 °C higher than rural areas. Spatially, the UHI tended to be most intense in areas with higher population densities. Temporally, both daytime and nighttime UHIs tended to be slightly more intense during more-extreme heat days compared to average summer days. These results help us understand the climates for which cities must prepare in a warming, urbanizing world.

  13. Dinosaur Day!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, Sandra; Baptiste, H. Prentice

    2006-01-01

    In this article, the authors describe how they capitalized on their first-grade students' love of dinosaurs by hosting a fun-filled Dinosaur Day in their classroom. On Dinosaur Day, students rotated through four dinosaur-related learning stations that integrated science content with art, language arts, math, and history in a fun and time-efficient…

  14. Simulated trends of extreme climate indices for the Carpathian basin using outputs of different regional climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pongracz, R.; Bartholy, J.; Szabo, P.; Pieczka, I.; Torma, C. S.

    2009-04-01

    Regional climatological effects of global warming may be recognized not only in shifts of mean temperature and precipitation, but in the frequency or intensity changes of different climate extremes. Several climate extreme indices are analyzed and compared for the Carpathian basin (located in Central/Eastern Europe) following the guidelines suggested by the joint WMO-CCl/CLIVAR Working Group on climate change detection. Our statistical trend analysis includes the evaluation of several extreme temperature and precipitation indices, e.g., the numbers of severe cold days, winter days, frost days, cold days, warm days, summer days, hot days, extremely hot days, cold nights, warm nights, the intra-annual extreme temperature range, the heat wave duration, the growing season length, the number of wet days (using several threshold values defining extremes), the maximum number of consecutive dry days, the highest 1-day precipitation amount, the greatest 5-day rainfall total, the annual fraction due to extreme precipitation events, etc. In order to evaluate the future trends (2071-2100) in the Carpathian basin, daily values of meteorological variables are obtained from the outputs of various regional climate model (RCM) experiments accomplished in the frame of the completed EU-project PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects). Horizontal resolution of the applied RCMs is 50 km. Both scenarios A2 and B2 are used to compare past and future trends of the extreme climate indices for the Carpathian basin. Furthermore, fine-resolution climate experiments of two additional RCMs adapted and run at the Department of Meteorology, Eotvos Lorand University are used to extend the trend analysis of climate extremes for the Carpathian basin. (1) Model PRECIS (run at 25 km horizontal resolution) was developed at the UK Met Office, Hadley Centre, and it uses the boundary conditions from the HadCM3 GCM. (2) Model Reg

  15. Consumer Unit for Low Energy District Heating Net

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paulsen, Otto; Fan, Jianhua; Furbo, Simon

    2008-01-01

    to reduce heat loss in the network. The consumer’s installation is a unit type with an accumulation tank for smoothing the heat load related to the domestic hot water. The building heat load is delivered by an under-floor heating system. The heavy under-floor heating system is assumed to smooth the room...... heat load on a daily basis, having a flow temperature control based on outdoor climate. The unit is designed for a near constant district heating water flow. The paper describes two concepts. The analyses are based on TRNSYS (Klein et al., 2006) simulation, supplied with laboratory verification......A low energy/ low temperature consumer installation is designed and analyzed. The consumer type is a low energy single family house 145 m2 with annual energy consumption in the range of 7000 kWh, incl. domestic hot water in a 2800 degree day climate. The network is an extreme low temperature system...

  16. Heat Stress in Older Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

  17. Radiochemistry days

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-09-01

    This document provides the 44 papers (transparencies used during the presentations and posters) presented at the Radiochemistry Days, held September 3-4, 1998 in Nantes, France. The main studied topics were problematic questions concerning the nuclear fuel cycle and in particular the management, storage of radioactive wastes and the environmental impact. (O.M.)

  18. The impact of heat on mortality and morbidity in the Greater Metropolitan Sydney Region: a case crossover analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Leigh Ann; Morgan, Geoffrey Gerard; Hanigan, Ivan Charles; Johnston, Fay H; Abu-Rayya, Hisham; Broome, Richard; Gaskin, Clive; Jalaludin, Bin

    2013-11-15

    This study examined the association between unusually high temperature and daily mortality (1997-2007) and hospital admissions (1997-2010) in the Sydney Greater Metropolitan Region (GMR) to assist in the development of targeted health programs designed to minimise the public health impact of extreme heat. Sydney GMR was categorized into five climate zones. Heat-events were defined as severe or extreme. Using a time-stratified case-crossover design with a conditional logistic regression model we adjusted for influenza epidemics, public holidays, and climate zone. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals were estimated for associations between daily mortality and hospital admissions with heat-event days compared to non-heat event days for single and three day heat-events. All-cause mortality overall had similar magnitude associations with single day and three day extreme and severe events as did all cardiovascular mortality. Respiratory mortality was associated with single day and three day severe events (95th percentile, lag0: OR = 1.14; 95%CI: 1.04 to 1.24). Diabetes mortality had similar magnitude associations with single day and three day severe events (95th percentile, lag0: OR = 1.22; 95%CI: 1.03 to 1.46) but was not associated with extreme events. Hospital admissions for heat related injuries, dehydration, and other fluid disorders were associated with single day and three day extreme and severe events. Contrary to our findings for mortality, we found inconsistent and sometimes inverse associations for extreme and severe events with cardiovascular disease and respiratory disease hospital admissions. Controlling for air pollutants did not influence the mortality associations but reduced the magnitude of the associations with hospital admissions particularly for ozone and respiratory disease. Single and three day events of unusually high temperatures in Sydney are associated with similar magnitude increases in mortality and hospital admissions. The trend

  19. Pamphlet day

    OpenAIRE

    Eastwood, Phil; Dunne, Chris; Fowler, Stephen

    2017-01-01

    Pamphlet Day: A Political Protest Pamphlet and Zine Event focused around the occupation of Loughborough Public Library, Granby Street, Loughborough, LE11 3DZ, UK. ABSTRACT “Throughout the 20th Century artists have engaged provocatively with text, images and performance, publishing writings, pamphlets, and manifestos that challenge the status quo.” (1) Loughborough Echo, May 2017 https://www.loughboroughecho.net/whats-on/arts-culture-news/pamphlet-art-feature-events-13038989 A s...

  20. Between-day reliability of MyotonPRO for the non-invasive measurement of muscle material properties in the lower extremities of patients with a chronic spinal cord injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, Chang-Yong; Choi, Hyuk-Jae; Ryu, Jeicheong; Kim, Gyoosuk

    2018-05-17

    Measuring the muscle properties of patients with spinal cord injuries (SCIs) is important to better understand their biomechanical features. In this study, we sought to evaluate the between-day reliability of MyotonPRO, a handheld device that can measure muscle mechanical properties, and assess whether it is reliable to measure muscle properties over time in patients with SCI. Thirteen men with complete SCIs (age 53.9 ± 6.3 years, height 171.0 ± 5.2 cm, weight 66.1 ± 5.8 kg), and injury levels ranging from L1 to T12, were enrolled. Oscillation frequency; logarithmic decrement; dynamic stiffness; mechanical stress relaxation time; and creep of the biceps femoris, medial and lateral gastrocnemius, rectus femoris, tibialis anterior, and Achilles tendon were measured on consecutive days using MyotonPRO. The intraclass coefficient for most muscles and the Achilles tendon ranged from 0.53 to 0.99 for all parameters. The percentage standard error of the measurement for many parameters in most muscles and the Achilles tendon was less than 10%. Bland-Altman analysis showed a high agreement for all mechanical properties. No significant differences were observed in any muscle or Achilles tendon properties between days (all p > 0.05). These results indicate that the MyotonPRO is reliable for between-day measurements of the mechanical properties of lower limb muscles and Achilles tendon in patients with SCI. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Attributing anthropogenic impact on regional heat wave events using CAM5 model large ensemble simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, S. H.; Chen, C. T.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme heat waves have serious impacts on society. It was argued that the anthropogenic forcing might substantially increase the risk of extreme heat wave events (e.g. over western Europe in 2003 and over Russia in 2010). However, the regional dependence of such anthropogenic impact and the sensitivity of the attributed risk to the definition of heat wave still require further studies. In our research framework, the change in the frequency and severity of a heat wave event under current conditions is calculated and compared with the probability and magnitude of the event if the effects of particular external forcing, such as due to human influence, had been absent. In our research, we use the CAM5 large ensemble simulation from the CLIVAR C20C+ Detection and Attribution project (http://portal.nersc.gov/c20c/main.html, Folland et al. 2014) to detect the heat wave events occurred in both historical all forcing run and natural forcing only run. The heat wave events are identified by partial duration series method (Huth et al., 2000). We test the sensitivity of heat wave thresholds from daily maximum temperature (Tmax) in warm season (from May to September) between 1959 and 2013. We consider the anthropogenic effect on the later period (2000-2013) when the warming due to human impact is more evident. Using Taiwan and surrounding area as our preliminary research target, We found the anthropogenic effect will increase the heat wave day per year from 30 days to 75 days and make the mean starting(ending) day for heat waves events about 15-30 days earlier(later). Using the Fraction of Attribution Risk analysis to estimate the risk of frequency of heat wave day, our results show the anthropogenic forcing very likely increase the heat wave days over Taiwan by more than 50%. Further regional differences and sensitivity of the attributed risk to the definition of heat wave will be compared and discussed.

  2. Early and late hot extremes, and elongation of the warm period over Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Founda, Dimitra; Giannakopoulos, Christos; Pierros, Fragiskos

    2017-04-01

    The eastern Mediterranean has been assigned as one of the most responsive areas in climate change, mainly with respect to the occurrence of warmer and drier conditions. In Greece in particular, observations suggest prominent increases in the summer air temperature which in some areas amount to approximately 1 0C/decade since the mid 1970s, while Regional Climate Models simulate further increases in the near and distant future. These changes are coupled with simultaneous increase in the occurrence of hot extremes. In addition to changes in the frequency and intensity of hot extrems, timing of occurrence is also of special interest. Early heat waves in particular, have been found to increase thermal risk in humans. The study explores variations and trends in timing, namely the date of first and last occurrence of hot extremes within the year, and subsequently the hot extremes period (season), defined as the time interval (number of days) between first and last hot extremes occurrence, over Greece. A case study for the area of Athens covering a longer than 100-years period (1897-2015) was conducted first, which will be extended to other Greek areas. Several heat related climatic indices were used, based either on predefined temperature thresholds such as 'tropical days' (daily maximum air temperature, Tmax >30 0C), 'tropical nights' (daily minimum air temperature, Tmin >20 0C), 'hot days' (Tmax >35 0C), or on local climate statistics such as days with Tmax (or Tmin) > 95th percentile. The analysis revealed significant changes in the period of hot extremes and specifically elongation of the period, attributed to early rather than late hot extremes occurrence. An earlier shift of the first tropical day and the first tropical night occurrence by approximately 2 days/decade was found over the study period. An overall elongation of the 'hot days' season by 2.6 days/decade was also observed, which is more prominent since the early 1980s. Over the last three decades, earlier

  3. Future Extreme Event Vulnerability in the Rural Northeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter, J.; Bowen, F. L.; Partridge, T.; Chipman, J. W.

    2017-12-01

    Future climate change impacts on humans will be determined by the convergence of evolving physical climate and socioeconomic systems. Of particular concern is the intersection of extreme events and vulnerable populations. Rural areas of the Northeastern United States have experienced increased temperature and precipitation extremes, especially over the past three decades, and face unique challenges due to their physical isolation, natural resources dependent economies, and high poverty rates. To explore the impacts of future extreme events on vulnerable, rural populations in the Northeast, we project extreme events and vulnerability indicators to identify where changes in extreme events and vulnerable populations coincide. Specifically, we analyze future (2046-2075) maximum annual daily temperature, minimum annual daily temperature, maximum annual daily precipitation, and maximum consecutive dry day length for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 using four global climate models (GCM) and a gridded observational dataset. We then overlay those projections with estimates of county-level population and relative income for 2060 to calculate changes in person-events from historical (1976-2005), with a focus on Northeast counties that have less than 250,000 people and are in the bottom income quartile. We find that across the rural Northeast for RCP4.5, heat person-events per year increase tenfold, far exceeding decreases in cold person-events and relatively small changes in precipitation and drought person-events. Counties in the bottom income quartile have historically (1976-2005) experienced a disproportionate number of heat events, and counties in the bottom two income quartiles are projected to experience a greater heat event increase by 2046-2075 than counties in the top two income quartiles. We further explore the relative contributions of event frequency, population, and income changes to the total and geographic distribution of climate change

  4. Effectiveness of National Weather Service heat alerts in preventing mortality in 20 US cities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinberger, Kate R; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Wellenius, Gregory A

    2018-04-09

    Extreme heat is a well-documented public health threat. The US National Weather Service (NWS) issues heat advisories and warnings (collectively, "heat alerts") in advance of forecast extreme heat events. The effectiveness of these alerts in preventing deaths remains largely unknown. To quantify the change in mortality rates associated with heat alerts in 20 US cities between 2001 and 2006. Because NWS heat alerts are issued based on forecast weather and these forecasts are imperfect, in any given location there exists a set of days of similar observed heat index in which heat alerts have been issued for some days but not others. We used a case-crossover design and conditional logistic regression to compare mortality rates on days with versus without heat alerts among such eligible days, adjusting for maximum daily heat index and temporal factors. We combined city-specific estimates into a summary measure using standard random-effects meta-analytic techniques. Overall, NWS heat alerts were not associated with lower mortality rates (percent change in rate: -0.5% [95% CI: -2.8, 1.9]). In Philadelphia, heat alerts were associated with a 4.4% (95% CI: -8.3, -0.3) lower mortality rate or an estimated 45.1 (95% empirical CI: 3.1, 84.1) deaths averted per year if this association is assumed to be causal. No statistically significant beneficial association was observed in other individual cities. Our results suggest that between 2001 and 2006, NWS heat alerts were not associated with lower mortality in most cities studied, potentially missing a valuable opportunity to avert a substantial number of heat-related deaths. These results highlight the need to better link alerts to effective communication and intervention strategies to reduce heat-related mortality. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Moving in extreme environments: what's extreme and who decides?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cotter, James David; Tipton, Michael J

    2014-01-01

    Humans work, rest and play in immensely varied extreme environments. The term 'extreme' typically refers to insufficiency or excess of one or more stressors, such as thermal energy or gravity. Individuals' behavioural and physiological capacity to endure and enjoy such environments varies immensely. Adverse effects of acute exposure to these environments are readily identifiable (e.g. heat stroke or bone fracture), whereas adverse effects of chronic exposure (e.g. stress fractures or osteoporosis) may be as important but much less discernable. Modern societies have increasingly sought to protect people from such stressors and, in that way, minimise their adverse effects. Regulations are thus established, and advice is provided on what is 'acceptable' exposure. Examples include work/rest cycles in the heat, hydration regimes, rates of ascent to and duration of stay at altitude and diving depth. While usually valuable and well intentioned, it is important to realise the breadth and importance of limitations associated with such guidelines. Regulations and advisories leave less room for self-determination, learning and perhaps adaptation. Regulations based on stress (e.g. work/rest cycles relative to WBGT) are more practical but less direct than those based on strain (e.g. core temperature), but even the latter can be substantively limited (e.g. by lack of criterion validation and allowance for behavioural regulation in the research on which they are based). Extreme Physiology & Medicine is publishing a series of reviews aimed at critically examining the issues involved with self- versus regulation-controlled human movement acutely and chronically in extreme environments. These papers, arising from a research symposium in 2013, are about the impact of people engaging in such environments and the effect of rules and guidelines on their safety, enjoyment, autonomy and productivity. The reviews will cover occupational heat stress, sporting heat stress, hydration, diving

  6. 2016 SPD: Day 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohler, Susanna

    2016-06-01

    sources in the distant universe. But a few times a year, it takes a few hours to look closer to home, turning to point at the Sun.Artists concept of NuSTAR, a high-energy space telescope that occasionally takes a break from observing the distant universe to instead point at the Sun. [NASA]Due to NuSTARs extreme sensitivity, there are obviously some challenges in pointing it directly at a nearby, high-intensity source! Large solar flares would completely swamp the telescopes detectors, but in quiet conditions, NuSTAR is an excellent tool for detecting faint sources.As a result, NuSTAR recently detected the smallest, faintest X-ray flare ever imaged at high energies. Tiny flares such as this one are very different from the enormous eruptions were used to seeing in solar images; these small flares would go unnoticed by a less sensitive instrument. Theyre interesting to study, however, because they might provide the solution to the coronal heating problem the question of how the enormous temperature of the solar corona is sustained. Its thought that continuous eruption of small solar flares could potentially provide the heating necessary to explain the coronas temperature.MinXSSThe last speaker of the press conference was Amir Caspi (Southwest Research Institute), who told us about the Miniature X-ray Solar Spectrometer, or MinXSS. MinXSS is a NASA-funded CubeSat a small but full-feature satellite roughly the size of a loaf of bread. It was deployed from the International Space Station just two weeks ago (16 May), and saw its first light last night (30 May)!MinXSS will detect soft X-rays from the Sun, with the goal of gaining a better understanding solar flares, nanoflares, and how these impact the Earth. When solar X-rays are absorbed by the Earths upper atmosphere, the atmosphere heats up with photons of different energies causing heating in different atmospheric layers. Understanding this interaction isimportant for makingpredictions about how communications signals

  7. Evolution caused by extreme events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Peter R; Grant, B Rosemary; Huey, Raymond B; Johnson, Marc T J; Knoll, Andrew H; Schmitt, Johanna

    2017-06-19

    Extreme events can be a major driver of evolutionary change over geological and contemporary timescales. Outstanding examples are evolutionary diversification following mass extinctions caused by extreme volcanism or asteroid impact. The evolution of organisms in contemporary time is typically viewed as a gradual and incremental process that results from genetic change, environmental perturbation or both. However, contemporary environments occasionally experience strong perturbations such as heat waves, floods, hurricanes, droughts and pest outbreaks. These extreme events set up strong selection pressures on organisms, and are small-scale analogues of the dramatic changes documented in the fossil record. Because extreme events are rare, almost by definition, they are difficult to study. So far most attention has been given to their ecological rather than to their evolutionary consequences. We review several case studies of contemporary evolution in response to two types of extreme environmental perturbations, episodic (pulse) or prolonged (press). Evolution is most likely to occur when extreme events alter community composition. We encourage investigators to be prepared for evolutionary change in response to rare events during long-term field studies.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  8. Heat Stroke

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mørch, Sofie Søndergaard; Andersen, Johnny Dohn Holmgren; Bestle, Morten Heiberg

    2017-01-01

    not diagnosed until several days after admittance; hence treatment with cooling was delayed. Both patients were admitted to the intensive care unit, where they were treated with an external cooling device and received treatment for complications. Both cases ended fatally. As global warming continues, more heat......Heat stroke is an acute, life-threatening emergency characterized clinically by elevated body temperature and central nervous system dysfunction. Early recognition and treatment including aggressive cooling and management of life-threatening systemic complications are essential to reduce morbidity...... and mortality. This case report describes two Danish patients diagnosed with heat stroke syndrome during a heat wave in the summer of 2014. Both patients were morbidly obese and had several predisposing illnesses. However since heat stroke is a rare condition in areas with temperate climate, they were...

  9. Extreme Programming Pocket Guide

    CERN Document Server

    Chromatic

    2003-01-01

    Extreme Programming (XP) is a radical new approach to software development that has been accepted quickly because its core practices--the need for constant testing, programming in pairs, inviting customer input, and the communal ownership of code--resonate with developers everywhere. Although many developers feel that XP is rooted in commonsense, its vastly different approach can bring challenges, frustrations, and constant demands on your patience. Unless you've got unlimited time (and who does these days?), you can't always stop to thumb through hundreds of pages to find the piece of info

  10. Temperature Extremes, Health, and Human Capital

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zivin, Joshua Graff; Shrader, Jeffrey

    2016-01-01

    The extreme temperatures expected under climate change may be especially harmful to children. Children are more vulnerable to heat partly because of their physiological features, but, perhaps more important, because they behave and respond differently than adults do. Children are less likely to manage their own heat risk and may have fewer ways to…

  11. Heat-Related Illnesses

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Be Prepared Safe Citizen Day Organize Important Medical Information ER Checklists Preparing for Emergencies Be ready to ... anyone can be affected. Here you will find information about heat cramps and heat stroke and exhaustion. ...

  12. Linking Excessive Heat with Daily Heat-Related Mortality over the Coterminous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Crosson, William L.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.

    2014-01-01

    In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981- 2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a 'heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air

  13. AAS 227: Day 3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohler, Susanna

    2016-01-01

    , think-pair-share style clicker questions, and comparing excerpts from scientific articles and the media. Eventually, students discover that the Earths overall temperature is going up, but observations can vary from year to year because heat is moving between the atmosphere and the oceans.Press Conference: Fermis Vision, First Stars, Massive Galaxy Cluster, and Dark Energy (by Susanna Kohler)Todays afternoon press conference was an exciting assortment of results, difficult to categorize under a single umbrella.First up was Marco Ajello (Clemson University), who spoke about 2FHL, the second Fermi-LAT catalog of high-energy sources. LAT stands for Large Area Telescope, an instrument on board the Fermi gamma-ray space observatory that scans the entire sky every three hours. Ajello described the contents of the 2FHL catalog: 360 gamma-ray sources, of which 75% are blazars (distant galactic nuclei with jets pointed toward us), 11% are sources within the galaxy, and the remaining 14% are unknown. With this catalog, Fermi has expanded into higher energies than ever before, providing the first map of the 50 GeV 2 TeV sky. Heres the press release.OMeara: Im a lowly spectroscopist so I dont have fun pictures to show you, just squiggly lines. #aas227 astrobites (@astrobites) January 7, 2016Next to speak, John OMeara (St. Michaels College) told us about the discovery of a gas cloud that may be a remnant from the first population of stars. OMeara showed us the emission spectrum from a distant quasar, which displays abrupt absorption by a cloud of gas located at a redshift of z~3.5. Absorption by gas clouds is not unusual but what is unusual is that this cloud is extremely metal-poor, with only 1/2500th solar metallicity. This is the lowest heavy-element content ever measured, and a sign that the cloud might have been enriched by Population III stars the theoretical first population of stars, which were born when gas in the universe was still pristine. Heres the press release

  14. A comparative analysis of heat waves and associated mortality in St. Louis, Missouri--1980 and 1995.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smoyer, K E

    1998-08-01

    This research investigates heat-related mortality during the 1980 and 1995 heat waves in St. Louis, Missouri. St. Louis has a long history of extreme summer weather, and heat-related mortality is a public health concern. Heat waves are defined as days with apparent temperatures exceeding 40.6 degrees C (105 degrees F). The study uses a multivariate analysis to investigate the relationship between mortality and heat wave intensity, duration, and timing within the summer season. The heat wave of 1980 was more severe and had higher associated mortality than that of 1995. To learn if changing population characteristics, in addition to weather conditions, contributed to this difference, changes in population vulnerability between 1980 and 1995 are evaluated under simulated heat wave conditions. The findings show that St. Louis remains at risk of heat wave mortality. In addition, there is evidence that vulnerability has increased despite increased air-conditioning penetration and public health interventions.

  15. Cold and heat waves in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnett, A G; Hajat, S; Gasparrini, A; Rocklöv, J

    2012-01-01

    Extreme cold and heat waves, characterized by a number of cold or hot days in succession, place a strain on people's cardiovascular and respiratory systems. The increase in deaths due to these waves may be greater than that predicted by extreme temperatures alone. We examined cold and heat waves in 99 US cities for 14 years (1987-2000) and investigated how the risk of death depended on the temperature threshold used to define a wave, and a wave's timing, duration and intensity. We defined cold and heat waves using temperatures above and below cold and heat thresholds for two or more days. We tried five cold thresholds using the first to fifth percentiles of temperature, and five heat thresholds using the 95-99 percentiles. The extra wave effects were estimated using a two-stage model to ensure that their effects were estimated after removing the general effects of temperature. The increases in deaths associated with cold waves were generally small and not statistically significant, and there was even evidence of a decreased risk during the coldest waves. Heat waves generally increased the risk of death, particularly for the hottest heat threshold. Cold waves of a colder intensity or longer duration were not more dangerous. Cold waves earlier in the cool season were more dangerous, as were heat waves earlier in the warm season. In general there was no increased risk of death during cold waves above the known increased risk associated with cold temperatures. Cold or heat waves earlier in the cool or warm season may be more dangerous because of a build up in the susceptible pool or a lack of preparedness for extreme temperatures. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Mortality impact of extreme winter temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Díaz, Julio; García, Ricardo; López, César; Linares, Cristina; Tobías, Aurelio; Prieto, Luis

    2005-01-01

    During the last few years great attention has been paid to the evaluation of the impact of extreme temperatures on human health. This paper examines the effect of extreme winter temperature on mortality in Madrid for people older than 65, using ARIMA and GAM models. Data correspond to 1,815 winter days over the period 1986 1997, during which time a total of 133,000 deaths occurred. The daily maximum temperature (Tmax) was shown to be the best thermal indicator of the impact of climate on mortality. When total mortality was considered, the maximum impact occured 7 8 days after a temperature extreme; for circulatory diseases the lag was between 7 and 14 days. When respiratory causes were considered, two mortality peaks were evident at 4 5 and 11 days. When the impact of winter extreme temperatures was compared with that associated with summer extremes, it was found to occur over a longer term, and appeared to be more indirect.

  17. Temperature extremes reduce seagrass growth and induce mortality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collier, C.J.; Waycott, M.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Temperature extremes occur during low tide in shallow seagrass meadows. • The effects of temperature extremes were tested experimentally at 35 °C, 40 °C and 43 °C. • 40 °C was a critical threshold with a large impact on growth and mortality. • At 43 °C there was complete mortality after 2–3 days. • Lower light conditions (e.g. poor water quality) led to a greater negative impact. - Abstract: Extreme heating (up to 43 °C measured from five-year temperature records) occurs in shallow coastal seagrass meadows of the Great Barrier Reef at low tide. We measured effective quantum yield (ϕ PSII ), growth, senescence and mortality in four tropical seagrasses to experimental short-duration (2.5 h) spikes in water temperature to 35 °C, 40 °C and 43 °C, for 6 days followed by one day at ambient temperature. Increasing temperature to 35 °C had positive effects on ϕ PSII (the magnitude varied between days and was highly correlated with PPFD), with no effects on growth or mortality. 40 °C represented a critical threshold as there were strong species differences and there was a large impact on growth and mortality. At 43 °C there was complete mortality after 2–3 days. These findings indicate that increasing duration (more days in a row) of thermal events above 40 °C is likely to affect the ecological function of tropical seagrass meadows

  18. Heat exposure on farmers in northeast Ghana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frimpong, Kwasi; Van Etten E J, Eddie; Oosthuzien, Jacques; Fannam Nunfam, Victor

    2017-03-01

    Environmental health hazards faced by farmers, such as exposure to extreme heat stress, are a growing concern due to global climate change, particularly in tropical developing countries. In such environments, farmers are considered to be a population at risk of environmental heat exposure. The situation is exacerbated due to their farming methods that involve the use of primitive equipment and hard manual labour conducted in full sunshine under hot and humid conditions. However, there is inadequate information about the extent of heat exposure to such farmers, both at the household and farm levels. This paper presents results from a study assessing environmental heat exposure on rural smallholder farmers in Bawku East, Northern Ghana. From January to December 2013, Lascar USB temperature and humidity sensors and a calibrated Questemp heat stress monitor were deployed to farms and homes of rural farmers at Pusiga in Bawku East to capture farmers' exposure to heat stress in both their living and working environments as they executed regular farming routines. The Lascar sensors have the capability to frequently, accurately and securely measure temperature and humidity over long periods. The Questemp heat stress monitor was placed in the same vicinity and showed strong correlations to Lascar sensors in terms of derived values of wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT). The WBGT in the working environment of farmers peaked at 33.0 to 38.1 °C during the middle of the day in the rainy season from March to October and dropped to 14.0-23.7 °C in the early morning during this season. A maximum hourly WBGT of 28.9-37.5 °C (March-October) was recorded in the living environment of farmers, demonstrating little relief from heat exposure during the day. With these levels of heat stress, exposed farmers conducting physically demanding outdoor work risk suffering serious health consequences. The sustainability of manual farming practices is also under threat by such high levels of

  19. Prinsip Umum Penatalaksanaan Cedera Olahraga Heat Stroke

    OpenAIRE

    Ade Tobing, Saharun Iso

    2016-01-01

    Exercises that are conducted in an extreme heat environment can cause heat injury. Heatinjury is associated with disturbance to temperature regulation and cardiovascular systems. Heatstroke is the most severe type of heat injury. Heat stroke is associated with high morbidity andmortality numbers, particularly if therapy treatment is delayed. In general, heat stroke is caused bytwo things, namely increase in heat production and decrease in heat loss.Heat stroke signs include: (1) rectal temper...

  20. Linking long-range weather forecasts and heat consumption as a determining factor when buying fuel chips for town heating plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rolev, A.-M.

    1991-12-01

    The aim of this study is to test whether long-range weather forecasts from the meteorological services can be used as a determining factor when buying fuel chips. In the study the fuel consumption of heating plants and the factors determining the monthly consumption are mentioned. Degree-day statistics in Denmark for the last 30 years are explained as well as the difficulties in conjunction with the prediction of long-range weather conditions. This study compares degree days in 1989-1990 month by month with the actual and theoretic chip consumption in three different heating plants the same year. The theoretic chip consumption is calculated on the basis of degree days in a ''standard year'' and the annual chip consumption of the heating plant, among other things. Furthermore, on the basis of degree-day statistics the report makes it possible to estimate the monthly chip consumption of a heating plant in a ''standard year'', in an extremely cold year (maximum degree days), and in an extremely warm year (minimum degree days). However, not everything can be predicted, and it is not yet possible to predict reliable weather forecasts for more than 5 days ahead. The study concludes that long-range weather forecasts cannot be used as a determining factor when buying fuel chips for heating plants. When buying fuel chips one must still use statistics and degree days, supplimented by figures based on experience from actual chip consumption in the individual heating plant. These figures take into consideration the different types of heating plants, as well as heat supply, chip-supplier, storing facilities, other fuels, etc. (au)

  1. Extremely Preterm Birth

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Events Advocacy For Patients About ACOG Extremely Preterm Birth Home For Patients Search FAQs Extremely Preterm Birth ... Spanish FAQ173, June 2016 PDF Format Extremely Preterm Birth Pregnancy When is a baby considered “preterm” or “ ...

  2. Temporal Compounding of Heat Waves in the Present and Projected Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldwin, J. W.; Dessy, J.; Vecchi, G. A.; Oppenheimer, M.

    2017-12-01

    The hazard of heat waves is projected to increase significantly with global warming, motivating much recent research characterizing various aspects of these extreme events. One less examined aspect of heat waves is their temporal structure. Here we first modify existing heat wave duration definitions to flexibly account for a variety of possible heat wave temporal structures (sequences of hot and cooler days). We then examine past heat waves associated with high mortality using observational reanalysis data, and note that many past heat waves might be better described as series of hot days compounded together with short breaks of cooler days in between. We employ Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) global climate model (GCM) simulations to compare the frequency of these compound heat waves in the present and projected future with higher levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Our results indicate that temporally compound heatwaves will constitute a greater proportion of heat wave risk with global warming. Via examining synthetic autoregressive model data, we propose that this phenomenon is expected when shifting the mean of a time series with some memory and noise. Notably, an increased proportion of compound events implies that vulnerability from prior hot days will play an increasingly large role in heat wave risk, with possible implications for both heat wave-related policy and preparedness.

  3. Heat stress related dairy cow mortality during heat waves and control periods in rural Southern Ontario from 2010-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bishop-Williams, Katherine E; Berke, Olaf; Pearl, David L; Hand, Karen; Kelton, David F

    2015-11-27

    Heat stress is a physiological response to extreme environmental heat such as heat waves. Heat stress can result in mortality in dairy cows when extreme heat is both rapidly changing and has a long duration. As a result of climate change, heat waves, which are defined as 3 days of temperatures of 32 °C or above, are an increasingly frequent extreme weather phenomenon in Southern Ontario. Heat waves are increasing the risk for on-farm dairy cow mortality in Southern Ontario. Heat stress indices (HSIs) are generally based on temperature and humidity and provide a relative measure of discomfort which can be used to predict increased risk of on-farm dairy cow mortality. In what follows, the heat stress distribution was described over space and presented with maps. Similarly, on-farm mortality was described and mapped. The goal of this study was to demonstrate that heat waves and related HSI increases during 2010-2012 were associated with increased on-farm dairy cow mortality in Southern Ontario. Mortality records and farm locations for all farms registered in the CanWest Dairy Herd Improvement Program in Southern Ontario were retrieved for 3 heat waves and 6 three-day control periods from 2010 to 2012. A random sample of controls (2:1) was taken from the data set to create a risk-based hybrid design. On-farm heat stress was estimated using data from 37 weather stations and subsequently interpolated across Southern Ontario by geostatistical kriging. A Poisson regression model was applied to assess the on-farm mortality in relation to varying levels of the HSI. For every one unit increase in HSI the on-farm mortality rate across Southern Ontario increases by 1.03 times (CI95% (IRR) = (1.025,1.035); p = ≤ 0.001). With a typical 8.6 unit increase in HSI from a control period to a heat wave, mortality rates are predicted to increase by 1.27 times. Southern Ontario was affected by heat waves, as demonstrated by high levels of heat stress and increased on-farm mortality

  4. Extreme Events and Energy Providers: Science and Innovation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yiou, P.; Vautard, R.

    2012-04-01

    Most socio-economic regulations related to the resilience to climate extremes, from infrastructure or network design to insurance premiums, are based on a present-day climate with an assumption of stationarity. Climate extremes (heat waves, cold spells, droughts, storms and wind stilling) affect in particular energy production, supply, demand and security in several ways. While national, European or international projects have generated vast amounts of climate projections for the 21st century, their practical use in long-term planning remains limited. Estimating probabilistic diagnostics of energy user relevant variables from those multi-model projections will help the energy sector to elaborate medium to long-term plans, and will allow the assessment of climate risks associated to those plans. The project "Extreme Events for Energy Providers" (E3P) aims at filling a gap between climate science and its practical use in the energy sector and creating in turn favourable conditions for new business opportunities. The value chain ranges from addressing research questions directly related to energy-significant climate extremes to providing innovative tools of information and decision making (including methodologies, best practices and software) and climate science training for the energy sector, with a focus on extreme events. Those tools will integrate the scientific knowledge that is developed by scientific communities, and translate it into a usable probabilistic framework. The project will deliver projection tools assessing the probabilities of future energy-relevant climate extremes at a range of spatial scales varying from pan-European to local scales. The E3P project is funded by the Knowledge and Innovation Community (KIC Climate). We will present the mechanisms of interactions between academic partners, SMEs and industrial partners for this project. Those mechanisms are elementary bricks of a climate service.

  5. Innovation and energy. ECRIN day

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    ECRIN is an association jointly created by the French atomic energy commission (CEA) and the French national center of scientific research (CNRS). It gathers experts from the research and industry worlds, representatives of institutions and decision making peoples in order to work on important topics like energy. This document gathers the working documents and transparencies presented at the ECRIN day on energy and innovation: opening talk of C. Birraux (head of the parliamentary office of evaluation of scientific and technological choices); the energy of seas (offshore wind power, wave energy, tide currents energy, thermal energy of seas, osmotic energy, tidal energy); synthetic fuels (stakes, possible options, Fischer-Tropsch synthesis, GTL, CTL, BTL, production with CO 2 recycling); capture and geological sequestration of CO 2 : a general overview (stakes, solutions, capture and sequestration, transport, geologic disposal, present day situation and perspectives); geothermal energy: new prospects (enhanced geothermal systems, hot-dry-rocks and hot fractured rocks, advances, cost, advantages and drawbacks); heat pumps and valorization of low temperature heat sources (space heating, district heating networks, heat pumps, artificial geothermal energy, low temperature water transport, thermal potentiality); heat and coldness storage and transport (use of intermittent energy sources, cogeneration, optimisation of processes, recovery of heat losses, CO 2 capture, present-day situation, problems to be solved, integration of systems and processes); plastic photovoltaic solar cells (market, stakes, potentialities of organic materials for photovoltaic conversion, state-of-the-art, research in Europe and France, perspectives); conclusion of the Ecrin day (challenges, diversification of energy sources, energy efficiency, abatement of CO 2 emissions, role of ECRIN). (J.S.)

  6. Seasonal temperature extremes in Potsdam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kundzewicz, Zbigniew; Huang, Shaochun

    2010-12-01

    The awareness of global warming is well established and results from the observations made on thousands of stations. This paper complements the large-scale results by examining a long time-series of high-quality temperature data from the Secular Meteorological Station in Potsdam, where observation records over the last 117 years, i.e., from January 1893 are available. Tendencies of change in seasonal temperature-related climate extremes are demonstrated. "Cold" extremes have become less frequent and less severe than in the past, while "warm" extremes have become more frequent and more severe. Moreover, the interval of the occurrence of frost has been decreasing, while the interval of the occurrence of hot days has been increasing. However, many changes are not statistically significant, since the variability of temperature indices at the Potsdam station has been very strong.

  7. Relationships Between Excessive Heat and Daily Mortality over the Coterminous U.S

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crosson, William L.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maury G., Jr.; Estes, Sue M.; Quattrochi, Dale A.

    2015-01-01

    In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. Using National Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) meteorological reanalysis data, we have developed several measures of extreme heat to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. These measures include daily maximum and minimum air temperatures, daily maximum heat indices and a new heat stress variable called Net Daily Heat Stress (NDHS) that gives an integrated measure of heat stress (and relief) over the course of a day. All output has been created on the NLDAS 1/8 degree (approximately 12 km) grid and aggregated to the county level, which is the preferred geographic scale of analysis for public health researchers. County-level statistics have been made available through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) via the Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) system. We have examined the relationship between excessive heat events, as defined in eight different ways from the various daily heat metrics, and heat-related and all-cause mortality defined in CDC's National Center for Health Statistics 'Multiple Causes of Death 1999-2010' dataset. To do this, we linked daily, county-level heat mortality counts with EHE occurrence based on each of the eight EHE definitions by region and nationally for the period 1999-2010. The objectives of this analysis are to determine (1) whether heat-related deaths can be clearly tied to excessive heat events, (2) what time lags are critical for predicting heat-related deaths, and (3) which of the heat metrics correlates best with mortality in each US region. Results show large regional differences in the correlations between heat and mortality. Also, the heat metric that provides the best indicator of mortality varied by region

  8. Variability of extreme wet events over Malawi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Libanda Brigadier

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Adverse effects of extreme wet events are well documented by several studies around the world. These effects are exacerbated in developing countries like Malawi that have insufficient risk reduction strategies and capacity to cope with extreme wet weather. Ardent monitoring of the variability of extreme wet events over Malawi is therefore imperative. The use of the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI has been recommended by many studies as an effective way of quantifying extreme wet events. In this study, ETCCDI indices were used to examine the number of heavy, very heavy, and extremely heavy rainfall days; daily and five-day maximum rainfall; very wet and extremely wet days; annual wet days and simple daily intensity. The Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT was employed at 5% significance level before any statistical test was done. Trend analysis was done using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall statistical test. All stations were found to be homogeneous apart from Mimosa. Trend results show high temporal and spatial variability with the only significant results being: increase in daily maximum rainfall (Rx1day over Karonga and Bvumbwe, increase in five-day maximum rainfall (Rx5day over Bvumbwe. Mzimba and Chileka recorded a significant decrease in very wet days (R95p while a significant increase was observed over Thyolo. Chileka was the only station which observed a significant trend (decrease in extremely wet rainfall (R99p. Mzimba was the only station that reported a significant trend (decrease in annual wet-day rainfall total (PRCPTOT and Thyolo was the only station that reported a significant trend (increase in simple daily intensity (SDII. Furthermore, the findings of this study revealed that, during wet years, Malawi is characterised by an anomalous convergence of strong south-easterly and north-easterly winds. This convergence is the main rain bringing mechanism to Malawi.

  9. Costic's technical day: thermodynamical heating and air conditioning in accommodations (heat pumps and heating/cooling floors). Air systems and their application in collective installations; Journee technique Costic: chauffage thermodynamique et climatisation dans l'habitat (les pompes a chaleur, les planchers chauffants-rafraichissants). Les systemes a air les applications en collectif

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lenotte, J.J.

    2002-07-01

    Direct expansion air systems are now currently used in individual residential houses. Some of these systems are used also in collective residential buildings where they allow to take into account the individualization of consumptions, as wished by some property developers. Some other centralized air-conditioning systems can be used. They require a distribution water loop for the supply of terminal units of ventilation-convection type. This document presents successively: the direct expansion air systems (direct emission air/air heat pumps, aeraulic distribution air/air heat pumps, production dimensioning, implementation, regulation, systems with variable flow rate of refrigerant); the centralized air/water systems with ventilation-convection systems (production dimensioning, implementation, regulation); the air distribution and diffusion. (J.S.)

  10. Miniature Heat Pipes

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-01-01

    Small Business Innovation Research contracts from Goddard Space Flight Center to Thermacore Inc. have fostered the company work on devices tagged "heat pipes" for space application. To control the extreme temperature ranges in space, heat pipes are important to spacecraft. The problem was to maintain an 8-watt central processing unit (CPU) at less than 90 C in a notebook computer using no power, with very little space available and without using forced convection. Thermacore's answer was in the design of a powder metal wick that transfers CPU heat from a tightly confined spot to an area near available air flow. The heat pipe technology permits a notebook computer to be operated in any position without loss of performance. Miniature heat pipe technology has successfully been applied, such as in Pentium Processor notebook computers. The company expects its heat pipes to accommodate desktop computers as well. Cellular phones, camcorders, and other hand-held electronics are forsible applications for heat pipes.

  11. Possible future changes in extreme events over Northern Eurasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, Erwan; Sokolov, Andrei; Scott, Jeffery

    2013-04-01

    In this study, we investigate possible future climate change over Northern Eurasia and its impact on extreme events. Northern Eurasia is a major player in the global carbon budget because of boreal forests and peatlands. Circumpolar boreal forests alone contain more than five times the amount of carbon of temperate forests and almost double the amount of carbon of the world's tropical forests. Furthermore, severe permafrost degradation associated with climate change could result in peatlands releasing large amounts of carbon dioxide and methane. Meanwhile, changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events, such as extreme precipitation, heat waves or frost days are likely to have substantial impacts on Northern Eurasia ecosystems. For this reason, it is very important to quantify the possible climate change over Northern Eurasia under different emissions scenarios, while accounting for the uncertainty in the climate response and changes in extreme events. For several decades, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change has been investigating uncertainty in climate change using the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework, an integrated assessment model that couples an earth system model of intermediate complexity (with a 2D zonal-mean atmosphere) to a human activity model. In this study, regional change is investigated using the MIT IGSM-CAM framework that links the IGSM to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). New modules were developed and implemented in CAM to allow climate parameters to be changed to match those of the IGSM. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-equivalent stabilization, which are similar to, respectively, the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios. Values of climate sensitivity and net aerosol

  12. The urban heat island and its impact on heat waves and human health in Shanghai.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Jianguo; Zheng, Youfei; Tang, Xu; Guo, Changyi; Li, Liping; Song, Guixiang; Zhen, Xinrong; Yuan, Dong; Kalkstein, Adam J; Li, Furong

    2010-01-01

    With global warming forecast to continue into the foreseeable future, heat waves are very likely to increase in both frequency and intensity. In urban regions, these future heat waves will be exacerbated by the urban heat island effect, and will have the potential to negatively influence the health and welfare of urban residents. In order to investigate the health effects of the urban heat island (UHI) in Shanghai, China, 30 years of meteorological records (1975-2004) were examined for 11 first- and second-order weather stations in and around Shanghai. Additionally, automatic weather observation data recorded in recent years as well as daily all-cause summer mortality counts in 11 urban, suburban, and exurban regions (1998-2004) in Shanghai have been used. The results show that different sites (city center or surroundings) have experienced different degrees of warming as a result of increasing urbanization. In turn, this has resulted in a more extensive urban heat island effect, causing additional hot days and heat waves in urban regions compared to rural locales. An examination of summer mortality rates in and around Shanghai yields heightened heat-related mortality in urban regions, and we conclude that the UHI is directly responsible, acting to worsen the adverse health effects from exposure to extreme thermal conditions.

  13. Utility of High Temporal Resolution Observations for Heat Health Event Characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palecki, M. A.

    2017-12-01

    Many heat health watch systems produce a binary on/off warning when conditions are predicted to exceed a given threshold during a day. Days with warnings and their mortality/morbidity statistics are analyzed relative to days not warned to determine the impacts of the event on human health, the effectiveness of warnings, and other statistics. The climate analyses of the heat waves or extreme temperature events are often performed with hourly or daily observations of air temperature, humidity, and other measured or derived variables, especially the maxima and minima of these data. However, since the beginning of the century, 5-minute observations are readily available for many weather and climate stations in the United States. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) has been collecting 5-minute observations from the NOAA Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) stations since 2000, and from the U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN) stations since 2005. This presentation will demonstrate the efficacy of utilizing 5-minute environmental observations to characterize heat waves by counting the length of time conditions exceed extreme thresholds based on individual and multiple variables and on derived variables such as the heat index. The length and depth of recovery periods between daytime heating periods will also be examined. The length of time under extreme conditions will influence health outcomes for those directly exposed. Longer periods of dangerous conditions also could increase the chances for poor health outcomes for those only exposed intermittently through cumulative impacts.

  14. GCMs-based spatiotemporal evolution of climate extremes during the 21st century in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jianfeng; Zhang, Qiang; Chen, Yongqin David; Singh, Vijay P.

    2013-10-01

    Changes in the hydrological cycle being caused by human-induced global warming are triggering variations in observed spatiotemporal distributions of precipitation and temperature extremes, and hence in droughts and floods across China. Evaluation of future climate extremes based on General Circulation Models (GCMs) outputs will be of great importance in scientific management of water resources and agricultural activities. In this study, five precipitation extreme and five temperature extreme indices are defined. This study analyzes daily precipitation and temperature data for 1960-2005 from 529 stations in China and outputs of GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and Phase 5 (CMIP5). Downscaling methods, based on QQ-plot and transfer functions, are used to downscale GCMs outputs to the site scale. Performances of GCMs in simulating climate extremes were evaluated using the Taylor diagram. Results showed that: (1) the multimodel CMIP5 ensemble performs the best in simulating observed extreme conditions; (2) precipitation processes are intensifying with increased frequency and intensity across entire China. The southwest China, however, is dominated by lengthening maximum consecutive dry days and also more heavy precipitation extremes; (3) warming processes continue with increasing warm nights, decreasing frost days, and lengthening heat waves during the 21st century; (4) changes in precipitation and temperature extremes exhibit larger changing magnitudes under RCP85 scenario; (5) for the evolution of changes in extremes, in most cases, the spatial pattern keeps the same, even though changing rates vary. In some cases, area with specific changing properties extends or shrinks gradually. The directions of trends may alter during the evolution; and (6) changes under RCP85 become more and more pronounced as time elapses. Under the peak-and-decline RCP26, changes in some cases do not decrease correspondingly during 2070-2099 even though the

  15. Design and fabrication of heat resistant multilayers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thorne, J.M.; Knight, L.V.; Peterson, B.G.; Perkins, R.T.; Gray, K.J.

    1986-01-01

    Many promising applications of multilayer x-ray optical elements subject them to intense radiation. This paper discusses the selection of optimal pairs of materials to resist heat damage and presents simulations of multilayer performance under extreme heat loadings

  16. Expected impacts of climate change on extreme climate events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Planton, S.; Deque, M.; Chauvin, F.; Terray, L.

    2008-01-01

    An overview of the expected change of climate extremes during this century due to greenhouse gases and aerosol anthropogenic emissions is presented. The most commonly used methodologies rely on the dynamical or statistical down-scaling of climate projections, performed with coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Either of dynamical or of statistical type, down-scaling methods present strengths and weaknesses, but neither their validation on present climate conditions, nor their potential ability to project the impact of climate change on extreme event statistics allows one to give a specific advantage to one of the two types. The results synthesized in the last IPCC report and more recent studies underline a convergence for a very likely increase in heat wave episodes over land surfaces, linked to the mean warming and the increase in temperature variability. In addition, the number of days of frost should decrease and the growing season length should increase. The projected increase in heavy precipitation events appears also as very likely over most areas and also seems linked to a change in the shape of the precipitation intensity distribution. The global trends for drought duration are less consistent between models and down-scaling methodologies, due to their regional variability. The change of wind-related extremes is also regionally dependent, and associated to a poleward displacement of the mid-latitude storm tracks. The specific study of extreme events over France reveals the high sensitivity of some statistics of climate extremes at the decadal time scale as a consequence of regional climate internal variability. (authors)

  17. Extreme environment electronics

    CERN Document Server

    Cressler, John D

    2012-01-01

    Unfriendly to conventional electronic devices, circuits, and systems, extreme environments represent a serious challenge to designers and mission architects. The first truly comprehensive guide to this specialized field, Extreme Environment Electronics explains the essential aspects of designing and using devices, circuits, and electronic systems intended to operate in extreme environments, including across wide temperature ranges and in radiation-intense scenarios such as space. The Definitive Guide to Extreme Environment Electronics Featuring contributions by some of the world's foremost exp

  18. Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; van der Wiel, Karin; Sebastian, Antonia; Singh, Roop; Arrighi, Julie; Otto, Friederike; Haustein, Karsten; Li, Sihan; Vecchi, Gabriel; Cullen, Heidi

    2017-12-01

    During August 25-30, 2017, Hurricane Harvey stalled over Texas and caused extreme precipitation, particularly over Houston and the surrounding area on August 26-28. This resulted in extensive flooding with over 80 fatalities and large economic costs. It was an extremely rare event: the return period of the highest observed three-day precipitation amount, 1043.4 mm 3dy-1 at Baytown, is more than 9000 years (97.5% one-sided confidence interval) and return periods exceeded 1000 yr (750 mm 3dy-1) over a large area in the current climate. Observations since 1880 over the region show a clear positive trend in the intensity of extreme precipitation of between 12% and 22%, roughly two times the increase of the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere expected for 1 °C warming according to the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. This would indicate that the moisture flux was increased by both the moisture content and stronger winds or updrafts driven by the heat of condensation of the moisture. We also analysed extreme rainfall in the Houston area in three ensembles of 25 km resolution models. The first also shows 2 × CC scaling, the second 1 × CC scaling and the third did not have a realistic representation of extreme rainfall on the Gulf Coast. Extrapolating these results to the 2017 event, we conclude that global warming made the precipitation about 15% (8%-19%) more intense, or equivalently made such an event three (1.5-5) times more likely. This analysis makes clear that extreme rainfall events along the Gulf Coast are on the rise. And while fortifying Houston to fully withstand the impact of an event as extreme as Hurricane Harvey may not be economically feasible, it is critical that information regarding the increasing risk of extreme rainfall events in general should be part of the discussion about future improvements to Houston’s flood protection system.

  19. The impact of heat waves on surface urban heat island and local economy in Cluj-Napoca city, Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herbel, Ioana; Croitoru, Adina-Eliza; Rus, Adina Viorica; Roşca, Cristina Florina; Harpa, Gabriela Victoria; Ciupertea, Antoniu-Flavius; Rus, Ionuţ

    2017-07-01

    The association between heat waves and the urban heat island effect can increase the impact on environment and society inducing biophysical hazards. Heat stress and their associated public health problems are among the most frequent. This paper explores the heat waves impact on surface urban heat island and on the local economy loss during three heat periods in Cluj-Napoca city in the summer of 2015. The heat wave events were identified based on daily maximum temperature, and they were divided into three classes considering the intensity threshold: moderate heat waves (daily maximum temperature exceeding the 90th percentile), severe heat waves (daily maximum temperature over the 95th percentile), and extremely severe heat waves (daily maximum temperature exceeding the 98th percentile). The minimum length of an event was of minimum three consecutive days. The surface urban heat island was detected based on land surface temperature derived from Landsat 8 thermal infrared data, while the economic impact was estimated based on data on work force structure and work productivity in Cluj-Napoca derived from the data released by Eurostat, National Bank of Romania, and National Institute of Statistics. The results indicate that the intensity and spatial extension of surface urban heat island could be governed by the magnitude of the heat wave event, but due to the low number of satellite images available, we should consider this information only as preliminary results. Thermal infrared remote sensing has proven to be a very efficient method to study surface urban heat island, due to the fact that the synoptic conditions associated with heat wave events usually favor cloud free image. The resolution of the OLI_TIRS sensor provided good results for a mid-extension city, but the low revisiting time is still a drawback. The potential economic loss was calculated for the working days during heat waves and the estimated loss reached more than 2.5 mil. EUR for each heat wave day

  20. Temperature extremes reduce seagrass growth and induce mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collier, C J; Waycott, M

    2014-06-30

    Extreme heating (up to 43 °C measured from five-year temperature records) occurs in shallow coastal seagrass meadows of the Great Barrier Reef at low tide. We measured effective quantum yield (ϕPSII), growth, senescence and mortality in four tropical seagrasses to experimental short-duration (2.5h) spikes in water temperature to 35 °C, 40 °C and 43 °C, for 6 days followed by one day at ambient temperature. Increasing temperature to 35 °C had positive effects on ϕPSII (the magnitude varied between days and was highly correlated with PPFD), with no effects on growth or mortality. 40 °C represented a critical threshold as there were strong species differences and there was a large impact on growth and mortality. At 43 °C there was complete mortality after 2-3 days. These findings indicate that increasing duration (more days in a row) of thermal events above 40 °C is likely to affect the ecological function of tropical seagrass meadows. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Interactions between urban heat islands and heat waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Lei; Oppenheimer, Michael; Zhu, Qing; Baldwin, Jane W.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Bou-Zeid, Elie; Guan, Kaiyu; Liu, Xu

    2018-03-01

    Heat waves (HWs) are among the most damaging climate extremes to human society. Climate models consistently project that HW frequency, severity, and duration will increase markedly over this century. For urban residents, the urban heat island (UHI) effect further exacerbates the heat stress resulting from HWs. Here we use a climate model to investigate the interactions between the UHI and HWs in 50 cities in the United States under current climate and future warming scenarios. We examine UHI2m (defined as urban-rural difference in 2m-height air temperature) and UHIs (defined as urban-rural difference in radiative surface temperature). Our results show significant sensitivity of the interaction between UHI and HWs to local background climate and warming scenarios. Sensitivity also differs between daytime and nighttime. During daytime, cities in the temperate climate region show significant synergistic effects between UHI and HWs in current climate, with an average of 0.4 K higher UHI2m or 2.8 K higher UHIs during HWs than during normal days. These synergistic effects, however, diminish in future warmer climates. In contrast, the daytime synergistic effects for cities in dry regions are insignificant in the current climate, but emerge in future climates. At night, the synergistic effects are similar across climate regions in the current climate, and are stronger in future climate scenarios. We use a biophysical factorization method to disentangle the mechanisms behind the interactions between UHI and HWs that explain the spatial-temporal patterns of the interactions. Results show that the difference in the increase of urban versus rural evaporation and enhanced anthropogenic heat emissions (air conditioning energy use) during HWs are key contributors to the synergistic effects during daytime. The contrast in water availability between urban and rural land plays an important role in determining the contribution of evaporation. At night, the enhanced release of stored

  2. Extreme value distributions

    CERN Document Server

    Ahsanullah, Mohammad

    2016-01-01

    The aim of the book is to give a through account of the basic theory of extreme value distributions. The book cover a wide range of materials available to date. The central ideas and results of extreme value distributions are presented. The book rwill be useful o applied statisticians as well statisticians interrested to work in the area of extreme value distributions.vmonograph presents the central ideas and results of extreme value distributions.The monograph gives self-contained of theory and applications of extreme value distributions.

  3. Extreme exercise and oxidative DNA modification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poulsen, H E; Loft, S; Vistisen, K

    1996-01-01

    Extreme exercise increases oxygen uptake with a potential for increased formation of reactive oxygen species. Damage to biomolecules may occur if such an increase exceeds the protective capacity of antioxidant defence mechanisms. Vigorous exercise amounting to approximately 10 h a day for 30 days...

  4. Climate Change and Fetal Health: The Impacts of Exposure to Extreme Temperatures in New York City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngo, Nicole S.; Horton, Radley M.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Climate change is projected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves while reducing cold extremes, yet few studies have examined the relationship between temperature and fetal health. Objectives: We estimate the impacts of extreme temperatures on birth weight and gestational age in Manhattan, a borough in New York City, and explore differences by socioeconomic status (SES). Methods: We combine average daily temperature from 1985 to 2010 with birth certificate data in Manhattan for the same time period. We then generate 33 downscaled climate model time series to project impacts on fetal health. Results: We find exposure to an extra day where average temperature 25 F and 85 F during pregnancy is associated with a 1.8 and 1.7 g (respectively) reduction in birth weight, but the impact varies by SES, particularly for extreme heat, where teen mothers seem most vulnerable. We find no meaningful, significant effect on gestational age. Using projections of temperature from these climate models, we project average net reductions in birth weight in the 2070- 2099 period of 4.6 g in the business-as-usual scenario. Conclusions: Results suggest that increasing heat events from climate change could adversely impact birth weight and vary by SES.

  5. Heat pumps: heat recovery

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pielke, R

    1976-01-01

    The author firstly explains in a general manner the functioning of the heat pump. Following a brief look at the future heat demand and the possibilities of covering it, the various methods of obtaining energy (making use of solar energy, ground heat, and others) and the practical applications (office heating, swimming pool heating etc.) are explained. The author still sees considerable difficulties in using the heat pump at present on a large scale. Firstly there is not enough maintenance personnel available, secondly the electricity supply undertakings cannot provide the necessary electricity on a wide basis without considerable investments. Other possibilities to save energy or to use waste energy are at present easier and more economical to realize. Recuperative and regenerative systems are described.

  6. AAS 227: Day 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohler, Susanna

    2016-01-01

    % atoms, 23% dark matter, and 73% dark energy.Spergel and Kamionkowski then pointed towards the future, predicting even more spectacular results to come over the next decade or so. Our current model of the universe predicts gravitational waves, which we havent observed so far, but the search is heating up. Kamionkowski called this potentially the most important new physics result of this century! He also explained that we can now do neutrino physics using the cosmic microwave background, which already provides the strongest constraint on the sum of neutrinon masses. In the next decade, we should be able to further determine the neutrino mass hierarchy. The coming years in cosmology could be even more exciting than the past twenty!HEAD Rossi Prize talk: A New View of the High Energy Universe with NuSTAR (by Susanna Kohler)This years Rossi Prize winner Fiona Harrison capped off the main part of the day with a plenary talk about some of the highlights from the first two years of the NuSTAR mission, NASAs space-based, high-energy X-ray telescope.Additional science results from the past two years with NuSTAR.Harrison began by telling us about NuSTARs launch in 2012, in which a Pegasus rocket with NuSTAR as its payload was launched from a L-1011 Stargazer aircraft. She claims to have been unconcerned about this part: The payload would go up or it would go down, there wasnt anything I could do about it. The real terror for the NuSTAR team came 9 days later when the telescope slowly unfolded itself over the span of 24 minutes, snapping components into place. All went well, however, and NuSTAR has since been forging exciting new territory in the high-energy X-ray regime!Harrison discussed science highlights from the last two years of NuSTAR, like the discovery of a population of dead stars in the inner parsecs of the galaxy, the identification of the mechanism that most likely re-energizes stalled shocks in supernovae and launches the explosion (in case youre keeping track, its

  7. Using Annual Data to Estimate the Public Health Impact of Extreme Temperatures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goggins, William B; Yang, Chunyuh; Hokama, Tomiko; Law, Lewis S K; Chan, Emily Y Y

    2015-07-01

    Short-term associations between both hot and cold ambient temperatures and higher mortality have been found worldwide. Few studies have examined these associations on longer time scales. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) were calculated for 1976-2012 for Hong Kong SAR, People's Republic of China, defining "annual" time periods in 2 ways: from May through April of the following year and from November through October. Annual frequency and severity of extreme temperatures were summarized by using a degree-days approach with extreme heat expressed as annual degree-days >29.3°C and cold as annual degree-days ASMR, with adjustment for long-term trends. Increases of 10 hot or 200 cold degree-days in an annual period, the approximate interquartile ranges for these variables, were significantly (all P's ≤ 0.011) associated with 1.9% or 3.1% increases, respectively, in the annual ASMR for the May-April analyses and with 2.2% or 2.8% increases, respectively, in the November-October analyses. Associations were stronger for noncancer and elderly mortality. Mortality increases associated with extreme temperature are not simply due to short-term forward displacement of deaths that would have occurred anyway within a few weeks. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  8. One-Day Prediction of Biometeorological Conditions in a Mediterranean Urban Environment Using Artificial Neural Networks Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. P. Moustris

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The present study, deals with the 24-hour prognosis of the outdoor biometeorological conditions in an urban monitoring site within the Greater Athens area, Greece. For this purpose, artificial neural networks (ANNs modelling techniques are applied in order to predict the maximum and the minimum value of the physiologically equivalent temperature (PET one day ahead as well as the persistence of the hours with extreme human biometeorological conditions. The findings of the analysis showed that extreme heat stress appears to be 10.0% of the examined hours within the warm period of the year, against extreme cold stress for 22.8% of the hours during the cold period of the year. Finally, human thermal comfort sensation accounts for 81.8% of the hours during the year. Concerning the PET prognosis, ANNs have a remarkable forecasting ability to predict the extreme daily PET values one day ahead, as well as the persistence of extreme conditions during the day, at a significant statistical level of .

  9. When Every Day Is Professional Development Day

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tienken, Christopher H.; Stonaker, Lew

    2007-01-01

    In the Monroe Township (New Jersey) Public Schools, teachers' learning occurs daily, not just on one day in October and February. Central office and school-level administrators foster job-embedded teacher growth. Every day is a professional development day in the district, but that has not always been so. How did the district become a system with…

  10. The early days of incineration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Valenti, M.

    1995-05-01

    Landfills reaching capacity, beaches fouled with trash, neighborhood residents protesting waste disposal sites in their backyards, and municipalities forced to recycle. Sound familiar? These issues might have been taken from today`s headlines, but they were also problems facing mechanical engineers a century ago. Conditions such as these were what led engineers to design the first incinerators for reducing the volume of municipal garbage, as well as for producing heat and electricity. The paper discusses these early days.

  11. The impact of heat waves on mortality in 9 European cities: results from the EuroHEAT project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Ippoliti, Daniela; Michelozzi, Paola; Marino, Claudia; de'Donato, Francesca; Menne, Bettina; Katsouyanni, Klea; Kirchmayer, Ursula; Analitis, Antonis; Medina-Ramón, Mercedes; Paldy, Anna; Atkinson, Richard; Kovats, Sari; Bisanti, Luigi; Schneider, Alexandra; Lefranc, Agnès; Iñiguez, Carmen; Perucci, Carlo A

    2010-07-16

    The present study aimed at developing a standardized heat wave definition to estimate and compare the impact on mortality by gender, age and death causes in Europe during summers 1990-2004 and 2003, separately, accounting for heat wave duration and intensity. Heat waves were defined considering both maximum apparent temperature and minimum temperature and classified by intensity, duration and timing during summer. The effect was estimated as percent increase in daily mortality during heat wave days compared to non heat wave days in people over 65 years. City specific and pooled estimates by gender, age and cause of death were calculated. The effect of heat waves showed great geographical heterogeneity among cities. Considering all years, except 2003, the increase in mortality during heat wave days ranged from + 7.6% in Munich to + 33.6% in Milan. The increase was up to 3-times greater during episodes of long duration and high intensity. Pooled results showed a greater impact in Mediterranean (+ 21.8% for total mortality) than in North Continental (+ 12.4%) cities. The highest effect was observed for respiratory diseases and among women aged 75-84 years. In 2003 the highest impact was observed in cities where heat wave episode was characterized by unusual meteorological conditions. Climate change scenarios indicate that extreme events are expected to increase in the future even in regions where heat waves are not frequent. Considering our results prevention programs should specifically target the elderly, women and those suffering from chronic respiratory disorders, thus reducing the impact on mortality.

  12. The impact of heat waves on mortality in 9 European cities: results from the EuroHEAT project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bisanti Luigi

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The present study aimed at developing a standardized heat wave definition to estimate and compare the impact on mortality by gender, age and death causes in Europe during summers 1990-2004 and 2003, separately, accounting for heat wave duration and intensity. Methods Heat waves were defined considering both maximum apparent temperature and minimum temperature and classified by intensity, duration and timing during summer. The effect was estimated as percent increase in daily mortality during heat wave days compared to non heat wave days in people over 65 years. City specific and pooled estimates by gender, age and cause of death were calculated. Results The effect of heat waves showed great geographical heterogeneity among cities. Considering all years, except 2003, the increase in mortality during heat wave days ranged from + 7.6% in Munich to + 33.6% in Milan. The increase was up to 3-times greater during episodes of long duration and high intensity. Pooled results showed a greater impact in Mediterranean (+ 21.8% for total mortality than in North Continental (+ 12.4% cities. The highest effect was observed for respiratory diseases and among women aged 75-84 years. In 2003 the highest impact was observed in cities where heat wave episode was characterized by unusual meteorological conditions. Conclusions Climate change scenarios indicate that extreme events are expected to increase in the future even in regions where heat waves are not frequent. Considering our results prevention programs should specifically target the elderly, women and those suffering from chronic respiratory disorders, thus reducing the impact on mortality.

  13. How extreme is extreme hourly precipitation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papalexiou, Simon Michael; Dialynas, Yannis G.; Pappas, Christoforos

    2016-04-01

    The importance of accurate representation of precipitation at fine time scales (e.g., hourly), directly associated with flash flood events, is crucial in hydrological design and prediction. The upper part of a probability distribution, known as the distribution tail, determines the behavior of extreme events. In general, and loosely speaking, tails can be categorized in two families: the subexponential and the hyperexponential family, with the first generating more intense and more frequent extremes compared to the latter. In past studies, the focus has been mainly on daily precipitation, with the Gamma distribution being the most popular model. Here, we investigate the behaviour of tails of hourly precipitation by comparing the upper part of empirical distributions of thousands of records with three general types of tails corresponding to the Pareto, Lognormal, and Weibull distributions. Specifically, we use thousands of hourly rainfall records from all over the USA. The analysis indicates that heavier-tailed distributions describe better the observed hourly rainfall extremes in comparison to lighter tails. Traditional representations of the marginal distribution of hourly rainfall may significantly deviate from observed behaviours of extremes, with direct implications on hydroclimatic variables modelling and engineering design.

  14. Optimization with Extremal Dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boettcher, Stefan; Percus, Allon G.

    2001-01-01

    We explore a new general-purpose heuristic for finding high-quality solutions to hard discrete optimization problems. The method, called extremal optimization, is inspired by self-organized criticality, a concept introduced to describe emergent complexity in physical systems. Extremal optimization successively updates extremely undesirable variables of a single suboptimal solution, assigning them new, random values. Large fluctuations ensue, efficiently exploring many local optima. We use extremal optimization to elucidate the phase transition in the 3-coloring problem, and we provide independent confirmation of previously reported extrapolations for the ground-state energy of ±J spin glasses in d=3 and 4

  15. Summer heat and mortality in New York City: how hot is too hot?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metzger, Kristina B; Ito, Kazuhiko; Matte, Thomas D

    2010-01-01

    To assess the public health risk of heat waves and to set criteria for alerts for -excessive heat, various meteorologic metrics and models are used in different jurisdictions, generally without systematic comparisons of alternatives. We report such an analysis for New York City that compared maximum heat index with alternative metrics in models to predict daily variation in warm-season natural-cause mortality from 1997 through 2006. We used Poisson time-series generalized linear models and generalized additive models to estimate weather-mortality relationships using various metrics, lag and averaging times, and functional forms and compared model fit. A model that included cubic functions of maximum heat index on the same and each of the previous 3 days provided the best fit, better than models using maximum, minimum, or average temperature, or spatial synoptic classification (SSC) of weather type. We found that goodness of fit and maximum heat index-mortality functions were similar using parametric and nonparametric models. Same-day maximum heat index was linearly related to mortality risk across its range. The slopes at lags of 1, 2, and 3 days were flat across moderate values but increased sharply between maximum heat index of 95 degrees F and 100 degrees F (35-38 degrees C). SSC or other meteorologic variables added to the maximum heat index model moderately improved goodness of fit, with slightly attenuated maximum heat index-mortality functions. In New York City, maximum heat index performed similarly to alternative and more complex metrics in estimating mortality risk during hot weather. The linear relationship supports issuing heat alerts in New York City when the heat index is forecast to exceed approximately 95-100 degrees F. Periodic city-specific analyses using recent data are recommended to evaluate public health risks from extreme heat.

  16. High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Ensemble Projections of Future Extreme Temperature Distributions for the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Kotamarthi, V. Rao

    2017-12-01

    The aim of this study is to examine projections of extreme temperatures over the continental United States (CONUS) for the 21st century using an ensemble of high spatial resolution dynamically downscaled model simulations with different boundary conditions. The downscaling uses the Weather Research and Forecast model at a spatial resolution of 12 km along with outputs from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models that provide boundary conditions under two different future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories. The results from two decadal-length time slices (2045-2054 and 2085-2094) are compared with a historical decade (1995-2004). Probability density functions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are analyzed over seven climatologically cohesive regions of the CONUS. The impacts of different boundary conditions as well as future GHG concentrations on extreme events such as heat waves and days with temperature higher than 95°F are also investigated. The results show that the intensity of extreme warm temperature in future summer is significantly increased, while the frequency of extreme cold temperature in future winter decreases. The distribution of summer daily maximum temperature experiences a significant warm-side shift and increased variability, while the distribution of winter daily minimum temperature is projected to have a less significant warm-side shift with decreased variability. Using "business-as-usual" scenario, 5-day heat waves are projected to occur at least 5-10 times per year in most CONUS and ≥95°F days will increase by 1-2 months by the end of the century.

  17. Heat pipe heat storage performance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caruso, A; Pasquetti, R [Univ. de Provence, Marseille (FR). Inst. Universitaire des Systemes; Grakovich, L P; Vasiliev, L L [A.V. Luikov Heat and Mass Transfer Inst. of the BSSR, Academy of Sciences, Minsk (BY)

    1989-01-01

    Heat storage offers essential thermal energy saving for heating. A ground heat store equipped with heat pipes connecting it with a heat source and to the user is considered in this paper. It has been shown that such a heat exchanging system along with a batch energy source meets, to a considerable extent, house heating requirements. (author).

  18. Extreme summer temperatures in Iberia: health impacts and associated synoptic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. García-Herrera

    2005-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the effect of extreme summer temperatures on daily mortality in two large cities of Iberia: Lisbon (Portugal and Madrid (Spain. Daily mortality and meteorological variables are analysed using the same methodology based on Box-Jenkins models. Results reveal that in both cases there is a triggering effect on mortality when maximum daily temperature exceeds a given threshold (34°C in Lisbon and 36°C in Madrid. The impact of most intense heat events is very similar for both cities, with significant mortality values occurring up to 3 days after the temperature threshold has been surpassed. This impact is measured as the percentual increase of mortality associated to a 1°C increase above the threshold temperature. In this respect, Lisbon shows a higher impact, 31%, as compared with Madrid at 21%. The difference can be attributed to demographic and socio-economic factors. Furthermore, the longer life span of Iberian women is critical to explain why, in both cities, females are more susceptible than males to heat effects, with an almost double mortality impact value.

    The analysis of Sea Level Pressure (SLP, 500hPa geopotential height and temperature fields reveals that, despite being relatively close to each other, Lisbon and Madrid have relatively different synoptic circulation anomalies associated with their respective extreme summer temperature days. The SLP field reveals higher anomalies for Lisbon, but extending over a smaller area. Extreme values in Madrid seem to require a more western location of the Azores High, embracing a greater area over Europe, even if it is not as deep as for Lisbon. The origin of the hot and dry air masses that usually lead to extreme heat days in both cities is located in Northern Africa. However, while Madrid maxima require wind blowing directly from the south, transporting heat from Southern Spain and Northern Africa, Lisbon maxima occur under more easterly

  19. Extreme summer temperatures in Iberia: health impacts and associated synoptic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. García-Herrera

    2005-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the effect of extreme summer temperatures on daily mortality in two large cities of Iberia: Lisbon (Portugal and Madrid (Spain. Daily mortality and meteorological variables are analysed using the same methodology based on Box-Jenkins models. Results reveal that in both cases there is a triggering effect on mortality when maximum daily temperature exceeds a given threshold (34°C in Lisbon and 36°C in Madrid. The impact of most intense heat events is very similar for both cities, with significant mortality values occurring up to 3 days after the temperature threshold has been surpassed. This impact is measured as the percentual increase of mortality associated to a 1°C increase above the threshold temperature. In this respect, Lisbon shows a higher impact, 31%, as compared with Madrid at 21%. The difference can be attributed to demographic and socio-economic factors. Furthermore, the longer life span of Iberian women is critical to explain why, in both cities, females are more susceptible than males to heat effects, with an almost double mortality impact value. The analysis of Sea Level Pressure (SLP, 500hPa geopotential height and temperature fields reveals that, despite being relatively close to each other, Lisbon and Madrid have relatively different synoptic circulation anomalies associated with their respective extreme summer temperature days. The SLP field reveals higher anomalies for Lisbon, but extending over a smaller area. Extreme values in Madrid seem to require a more western location of the Azores High, embracing a greater area over Europe, even if it is not as deep as for Lisbon. The origin of the hot and dry air masses that usually lead to extreme heat days in both cities is located in Northern Africa. However, while Madrid maxima require wind blowing directly from the south, transporting heat from Southern Spain and Northern Africa, Lisbon maxima occur under more easterly conditions, when Northern African air

  20. Extremely low temperature properties of epoxy GFRP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kadotani, Kenzo; Nagai, Matao; Aki, Fumitake.

    1983-01-01

    The examination of fiber-reinforced plastics, that is, plastics such as epoxy, polyester and polyimide reinforced with high strength fibers such as glass, carbon, boron and steel, for extremely low temperature use began from the fuel tanks of rockets. Therafter, the trial manufacture of superconducting generators and extremely low temperature transformers and the manufacture of superconducting magnets for nuclear fusion experimental setups became active, and high performance FRPs have been adopted, of which the extremely low temperature properties have been sufficiently grasped. Recently, the cryostats made of FRPs have been developed, fully utilizing such features of FRPs as high strength, high rigidity, non-magnetic material, insulation, low heat conductivity, light weight and the freedom of molding. In this paper, the mechanical properties at extremely low temperature of the plastic composite materials used as insulators and structural materials for extremely low temperature superconducting equipment is outlined, and in particular, glass fiber-reinforced epoxy laminates are described somewhat in detail. The fracture strain of GFRP at extremely low temperature is about 1.3 times as large as that at room temperature, but at extremely low temperature, clear cracking occurred at 40% of the fracture strain. The linear thermal contraction of GFRP showed remarkable anisotropy. (Kako, I.)

  1. Spatially explicit modelling of extreme weather and climate events ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The reality of climate change continues to influence the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, floods, and landslides. The impacts of the cumulative interplay of these extreme weather and climate events variation continue to perturb governments causing a scramble into formation ...

  2. Classifying Returns as Extreme

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Charlotte

    2014-01-01

    I consider extreme returns for the stock and bond markets of 14 EU countries using two classification schemes: One, the univariate classification scheme from the previous literature that classifies extreme returns for each market separately, and two, a novel multivariate classification scheme tha...

  3. Linking increases in hourly precipitation extremes to atmospheric temperature and moisture changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lenderink, Geert; Van Meijgaard, Erik

    2010-01-01

    Relations between hourly precipitation extremes and atmospheric temperature and moisture derived for the present-day climate are studied with the aim of understanding the behavior (and the uncertainty in predictions) of hourly precipitation extremes in a changing climate. A dependency of hourly precipitation extremes on the daily mean 2 m temperature of approximately two times the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation is found for temperatures above 10 deg. C. This is a robust relation obtained in four observational records across western Europe. A dependency following the CC relation can be explained by the observed increase in atmospheric (absolute) humidity with temperature, whereas the enhanced dependency (compared to the CC relation) appears to be caused by dynamical feedbacks owing to excess latent heat release in extreme showers. Integrations with the KNMI regional climate model RACMO2 at 25 km grid spacing show that changes in hourly precipitation extremes may indeed considerably exceed the prediction from the CC relation. The results suggests that increases of + 70% or even more are possible by the end of this century. However, a different regional model (CLM operated at ETHZ) predicts much smaller increases; this is probably caused by a too strong sensitivity of this model to a decrease in relative humidity.

  4. Heat transfer

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Heat transfer. Heat conduction in solid slab. Convective heat transfer. Non-linear temperature. variation due to flow. HEAT FLUX AT SURFACE. conduction/diffusion.

  5. Heat Waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heat Waves Dangers we face during periods of very high temperatures include: Heat cramps: These are muscular pains and spasms due ... that the body is having trouble with the heat. If a heat wave is predicted or happening… - ...

  6. Heat Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA's Heat Island Effect Site provides information on heat islands, their impacts, mitigation strategies, related research, a directory of heat island reduction initiatives in U.S. communities, and EPA's Heat Island Reduction Program.

  7. The great 2006 heat wave over California and Nevada: Signal of an increasing trend

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gershunov, A.; Cayan, D.R.; Iacobellis, S.F.

    2009-01-01

    Most of the great California-Nevada heat waves can be classified into primarily daytime or nighttime events depending on whether atmospheric conditions are dry or humid. A rash of nighttime-accentuated events in the last decade was punctuated by an unusually intense case in July 2006, which was the largest heat wave on record (1948-2006). Generally, there is a positive trend in heat wave activity over the entire region that is expressed most strongly and clearly in nighttime rather than daytime temperature extremes. This trend in nighttime heat wave activity has intensified markedly since the 1980s and especially since 2000. The two most recent nighttime heat waves were also strongly expressed in extreme daytime temperatures. Circulations associated with great regional heat waves advect hot air into the region. This air can be dry or moist, depending on whether a moisture source is available, causing heat waves to be expressed preferentially during day or night. A remote moisture source centered within a marine region west of Baja California has been increasing in prominence because of gradual sea surface warming and a related increase in atmospheric humidity. Adding to the very strong synoptic dynamics during the 2006 heat wave were a prolonged stream of moisture from this southwestern source and, despite the heightened humidity, an environment in which afternoon convection was suppressed, keeping cloudiness low and daytime temperatures high. The relative contributions of these factors and possible relations to global warming are discussed. ?? 2009 American Meteorological Society.

  8. Microclimate Variation and Estimated Heat Stress of Runners in the 2020 Tokyo Olympic Marathon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eichi Kosaka

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games will be held in July and August. As these are the hottest months in Tokyo, the risk of heat stress to athletes and spectators in outdoor sporting events is a serious concern. This study focuses on the marathon races, which are held outside for a prolonged time, and evaluates the potential heat stress of marathon runners using the COMFA (COMfort FormulA Human Heat Balance (HBB Model. The study applies a four-step procedure: (a measure the thermal environment along the marathon course; (b estimate heat stress on runners by applying COMFA; (c identify locations where runners may be exposed to extreme heat stress; and (d discuss measures to mitigate the heat stress on runners. On clear sunny days, the entire course is rated as ‘dangerous’ or ‘extremely dangerous’, and within the latter half of the course, there is a 10-km portion where values continuously exceed the extremely dangerous level. Findings illustrate which stretches have the highest need for mitigation measures, such as starting the race one hour earlier, allowing runners to run in the shade of buildings or making use of urban greenery including expanding the tree canopy.

  9. Community responses to extreme climatic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frédéric JIGUET, Lluis BROTONS, Vincent DEVICTOR

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Species assemblages and natural communities are increasingly impacted by changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events. Here we propose a brief overview of expected and demonstrated direct and indirect impacts of extreme events on animal communities. We show that differential impacts on basic biological parameters of individual species can lead to strong changes in community composition and structure with the potential to considerably modify the functional traits of the community. Sudden disequilibria have even been shown to induce irreversible shifts in marine ecosystems, while cascade effects on various taxonomic groups have been highlighted in Mediterranean forests. Indirect effects of extreme climatic events are expected when event-induced habitat changes (e.g. soil stability, vegetation composition, water flows altered by droughts, floods or hurricanes have differential consequences on species assembled within the communities. Moreover, in increasing the amplitude of trophic mismatches, extreme events are likely to turn many systems into ecological traps under climate change. Finally, we propose a focus on the potential impacts of an extreme heat wave on local assemblages as an empirical case study, analysing monitoring data on breeding birds collected in France. In this example, we show that despite specific populations were differently affected by local temperature anomalies, communities seem to be unaffected by a sudden heat wave. These results suggest that communities are tracking climate change at the highest possible rate [Current Zoology 57 (3: 406–413, 2011].

  10. Between Anzac Day and Waitangi Day

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Czerwińska Anna

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses the historical background and significance of the two most important national holidays in New Zealand: Waitangi Day and Anzac Day. Waitangi Day is celebrated on the 6th February and it commemorates the signing of the Treaty of Waitangi between British representatives and a number of Māori chiefs in 1840. Following the signing of the treaty New Zealand became effectively a British colony. Anzac Day is celebrated on 25th April, i.e., on the anniversary of the landing of soldiers of the Australian and New Zealand Army Corps (ANZAC on the Gallipoli peninsula in Turkey in 1915, during World War One. There are three major differences between these two holidays: the process of those days becoming national holidays, the level of contestation, and the changing messages they have carried. The present study analyzes the national discourse around Anzac Day and Waitangi Day in New Zealand, and attempts to reveal how the official New Zealand government rhetoric about national unity becomes deconstructed. The following analysis is based on a selection of online articles from the New Zealand Herald and Stuff published in Auckland and Wellington, respectively. Both cities are populated by multi-ethnic groups, with Auckland featuring the largest Māori population.

  11. Extremal surface barriers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Engelhardt, Netta; Wall, Aron C.

    2014-01-01

    We present a generic condition for Lorentzian manifolds to have a barrier that limits the reach of boundary-anchored extremal surfaces of arbitrary dimension. We show that any surface with nonpositive extrinsic curvature is a barrier, in the sense that extremal surfaces cannot be continuously deformed past it. Furthermore, the outermost barrier surface has nonnegative extrinsic curvature. Under certain conditions, we show that the existence of trapped surfaces implies a barrier, and conversely. In the context of AdS/CFT, these barriers imply that it is impossible to reconstruct the entire bulk using extremal surfaces. We comment on the implications for the firewall controversy

  12. Forecasting extreme temperature health hazards in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Napoli, Claudia; Pappenberger, Florian; Cloke, Hannah L.

    2017-04-01

    Extreme hot temperatures, such as those experienced during a heat wave, represent a dangerous meteorological hazard to human health. Heat disorders such as sunstroke are harmful to people of all ages and responsible for excess mortality in the affected areas. In 2003 more than 50,000 people died in western and southern Europe because of a severe and sustained episode of summer heat [1]. Furthermore, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change heat waves are expected to get more frequent in the future thus posing an increasing threat to human lives. Developing appropriate tools for extreme hot temperatures prediction is therefore mandatory to increase public preparedness and mitigate heat-induced impacts. A recent study has shown that forecasts of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) provide a valid overview of extreme temperature health hazards on a global scale [2]. UTCI is a parameter related to the temperature of the human body and its regulatory responses to the surrounding atmospheric environment. UTCI is calculated using an advanced thermo-physiological model that includes the human heat budget, physiology and clothing. To forecast UTCI the model uses meteorological inputs, such as 2m air temperature, 2m water vapour pressure and wind velocity at body height derived from 10m wind speed, from NWP models. Here we examine the potential of UTCI as an extreme hot temperature prediction tool for the European area. UTCI forecasts calculated using above-mentioned parameters from ECMWF models are presented. The skill in predicting UTCI for medium lead times is also analysed and discussed for implementation to international health-hazard warning systems. This research is supported by the ANYWHERE project (EnhANcing emergencY management and response to extreme WeatHER and climate Events) which is funded by the European Commission's HORIZON2020 programme. [1] Koppe C. et al., Heat waves: risks and responses. World Health Organization. Health and

  13. Heat-related illness in China, summer of 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Shaohua; Huang, Cunrui; Bai, Li; Chu, Cordia; Liu, Qiyong

    2016-01-01

    Extreme heat events have occurred more frequently in China in recent years, leading to serious impacts on human life and the health care system. To identify the characteristics of individuals with heat-related illnesses in China during the summer of 2013, we collected the data from the Heat-related Illness Surveillance System in Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC). A total of 5758 cases were reported in the summer of 2013, mostly concentrated in urban areas around the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. We found a difference in age distribution of percentage of deaths from heat-related illness between males and females. Severe cases in males mostly occurred in the age group 45-74 years but in females mostly in the age group over 75. A distributed lag non-linear model had been used to identify population vulnerabilities in Ningbo and Chongqing. The results show that there was a clear positive relationship between maximum temperature and heat-related illness, and the heat effect was nonlinear and could last for 3 days. The elderly and males in the range of 45-64 years old might be the most vulnerable people of heat-related illness in China. We also highlighted some deficiencies of the surveillance system, such that the reported data were not accurate, comprehensive, or timely enough at this stage.

  14. Household electricity and gas consumption for heating homes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Jaehoon; Seob Kim, Chang; Lee, Jongsu

    2011-01-01

    Energy consumption has been drastically changed because of energy source depletion, price fluctuations, development and penetration of alternative energy sources, and government policies. Household energy sources are interrelated, and energy price and household characteristics, such as income level and dwelling size, affect the usage. To supply energy consistently and achieve a balance between production and consumption, stakeholders must understand consumer energy-consumption behavior. Therefore, this study identifies household heating energy usage patterns and the substitutive and/or complementary relationships between electricity and gas. Based on a multiple discrete-continuous extreme value model, household utility structure is identified from data on gas-heating usage. Results show greater utility and the smallest satiation values for gas boilers than for electric heaters and electric heating beds. The effects of consumer socioeconomic and environmental characteristics on the choice of heating energy sources were analyzed. Also, for further comparison, the respondents were split into high and low categories for income, heating degree days, dwelling size, and gas usage. Gas was found to be the most economical heating choice for households. - Research highlights: → This study investigates household electricity and gas consumption behavior for heating. → It also studied the relationship between two energy sources. → A research framework is suggested by combining the CDA and the MDCEV models. → It provides quantitative data that might be used for designing efficient energy policies.

  15. Shocking matter to extreme conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gupta, Y.M.; Sharma, S.M.

    1997-01-01

    A good understanding of the thermodynamic response of matter at high compression and high energy densities is important to several areas of physics. Shock-wave experiments are uniquely suited for obtaining data at extreme conditions, and a shock-compressed matter can be viewed as a condensed system with or without dissociation or as a strongly coupled plasma. This article reviews work by Da Silva et al. in which irradiances ranging from 5x10 superscript 12 to 2x10 superscript 14 W/cm 2 were used to generate 8- to 10-ns square pulses in liquid deuterium. The authors demonstrated negligible pre-heating of the sample, steady propagation of the shock wave, and direct determination of the shock wave velocity along with particle velocity and density in the shocked state. Da Silva et al. results are compared with models and other experimental information, and the usefulness of the data in other areas is assessed. 11 refs., 1 fig

  16. AAS 227: Day 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohler, Susanna

    2016-01-01

    Editors Note:This week were at the 227th AAS Meeting in Kissimmee, FL. Along with several fellow authors from astrobites.com, I will bewritingupdates on selectedevents at themeeting and posting at the end of each day. Follow along here or at astrobites.com, or catch ourlive-tweeted updates from the @astrobites Twitter account. The usual posting schedule for AAS Nova will resumenext week.Things kicked off last night at our undergraduate reception booth. Thanks to all of you who stopped by we were delightedto have so many people tell us that they already know about and useastrobites, and we were excited to introduce a new cohort of students at AAS to astrobites for the first time.Tuesday morning was the official start of the meeting. Here are just a few of the talks and workshops astrobiters attended today.Opening Address (by Becky Smethurst)The President of the AAS, aka our fearless leader Meg Urry kicked off the meeting this morning at the purely coffee powered hour of 8am this morning. She spoke about the importance of young astronomers at the meeting (heres looking at you reader!) and also the importance of the new Working Group for Accessibility and Disabilities (aka WGAD pronounced like wicked) at the AAS. The Society has made extra effort this year to make the conference accessible to all,a message which was very well received by everyone in attendance.Kavli Lecture: New Horizons Alan Stern (by Becky Smethurst)We were definitely spoilt with the first Plenary lecture at this years conference Alan Stern gave us a a review of the New Horizons mission of the Pluto Fly By (astrobites covered the mission back in July with this post). We were treated to beautiful images, wonderful results and a foray into geology.Before (Hubble) and after #NewHorizons. #thatisall #science #astro alanstern #aas227 pic.twitter.com/kkMt6RsSIR Science News (@topsciencething) January 5, 2016Some awesome facts from the lecture that blew my mind:New Horizons is now 2AU (!) beyond Pluto

  17. CGH Supports World Cancer Day Every Day

    Science.gov (United States)

    We celebrate World Cancer Day every year on February 4th. This year the theme “We can. I can.” invites us to think not only about how we can work with one another to reduce the global burden of cancer, but how we as individuals can make a difference. Every day the staff at CGH work to establish and build upon programs that are aimed at improving the lives of people affected by cancer.

  18. Statistics of Extremes

    KAUST Repository

    Davison, Anthony C.; Huser, Raphaë l

    2015-01-01

    Statistics of extremes concerns inference for rare events. Often the events have never yet been observed, and their probabilities must therefore be estimated by extrapolation of tail models fitted to available data. Because data concerning the event

  19. Analysis of extreme events

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Khuluse, S

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available ) determination of the distribution of the damage and (iii) preparation of products that enable prediction of future risk events. The methodology provided by extreme value theory can also be a powerful tool in risk analysis...

  20. Acute lower extremity ischaemia

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Acute lower extremity ischaemia. Acute lower limb ischaemia is a surgical emergency. ... is ~1.5 cases per 10 000 persons per year. Acute ischaemia ... Table 2. Clinical features discriminating embolic from thrombotic ALEXI. Clinical features.

  1. Heat exchangers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schmidt, E L; Eisenmann, G; Hahne, E [Stuttgart Univ. (TH) (F.R. Germany). Inst. fuer Thermodynamik und Waermetechnik

    1976-04-01

    A survey is presented on publications on design, heat transfer, form factors, free convection, evaporation processes, cooling towers, condensation, annular gap, cross-flowed cylinders, axial flow through a bundle of tubes, roughnesses, convective heat transfer, loss of pressure, radiative heat transfer, finned surfaces, spiral heat exchangers, curved pipes, regeneraters, heat pipes, heat carriers, scaling, heat recovery systems, materials selection, strength calculation, control, instabilities, automation of circuits, operational problems and optimization.

  2. Causes of Glacier Melt Extremes in the Alps Since 1949

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thibert, E.; Dkengne Sielenou, P.; Vionnet, V.; Eckert, N.; Vincent, C.

    2018-01-01

    Recent record-breaking glacier melt values are attributable to peculiar extreme events and long-term warming trends that shift averages upward. Analyzing one of the world's longest mass balance series with extreme value statistics, we show that detrending melt anomalies makes it possible to disentangle these effects, leading to a fairer evaluation of the return period of melt extreme values such as 2003, and to characterize them by a more realistic bounded behavior. Using surface energy balance simulations, we show that three independent drivers control melt: global radiation, latent heat, and the amount of snow at the beginning of the melting season. Extremes are governed by large deviations in global radiation combined with sensible heat. Long-term trends are driven by the lengthening of melt duration due to earlier and longer-lasting melting of ice along with melt intensification caused by trends in long-wave irradiance and latent heat due to higher air moisture.

  3. Extreme Weather and Climate: Workshop Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobel, Adam; Camargo, Suzana; Debucquoy, Wim; Deodatis, George; Gerrard, Michael; Hall, Timothy; Hallman, Robert; Keenan, Jesse; Lall, Upmanu; Levy, Marc; hide

    2016-01-01

    Extreme events are the aspects of climate to which human society is most sensitive. Due to both their severity and their rarity, extreme events can challenge the capacity of physical, social, economic and political infrastructures, turning natural events into human disasters. Yet, because they are low frequency events, the science of extreme events is very challenging. Among the challenges is the difficulty of connecting extreme events to longer-term, large-scale variability and trends in the climate system, including anthropogenic climate change. How can we best quantify the risks posed by extreme weather events, both in the current climate and in the warmer and different climates to come? How can we better predict them? What can we do to reduce the harm done by such events? In response to these questions, the Initiative on Extreme Weather and Climate has been created at Columbia University in New York City (extreme weather.columbia.edu). This Initiative is a University-wide activity focused on understanding the risks to human life, property, infrastructure, communities, institutions, ecosystems, and landscapes from extreme weather events, both in the present and future climates, and on developing solutions to mitigate those risks. In May 2015,the Initiative held its first science workshop, entitled Extreme Weather and Climate: Hazards, Impacts, Actions. The purpose of the workshop was to define the scope of the Initiative and tremendously broad intellectual footprint of the topic indicated by the titles of the presentations (see Table 1). The intent of the workshop was to stimulate thought across disciplinary lines by juxtaposing talks whose subjects differed dramatically. Each session concluded with question and answer panel sessions. Approximately, 150 people were in attendance throughout the day. Below is a brief synopsis of each presentation. The synopses collectively reflect the variety and richness of the emerging extreme event research agenda.

  4. Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas, Katherine [National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC (United States)

    2016-03-31

    A report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine concludes it is now possible to estimate the influence of climate change on some types of extreme events. The science of extreme event attribution has advanced rapidly in recent years, giving new insight to the ways that human-caused climate change can influence the magnitude or frequency of some extreme weather events. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities. Confidence is strongest in attributing types of extreme events that are influenced by climate change through a well-understood physical mechanism, such as, the more frequent heat waves that are closely connected to human-caused global temperature increases, the report finds. Confidence is lower for other types of events, such as hurricanes, whose relationship to climate change is more complex and less understood at present. For any extreme event, the results of attribution studies hinge on how questions about the event's causes are posed, and on the data, modeling approaches, and statistical tools chosen for the analysis.

  5. Is southwestern China experiencing more frequent precipitation extremes?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Meixian; Xu, Xianli; Wang, Kelin; Sun, Alexander Y; Liu, Wen; Zhang, Xiaoyan

    2014-01-01

    Climate extremes have and will continue to cause severe damages to buildings and natural environments around the world. A full knowledge of the probability of the climate extremes is important for the management and mitigation of natural hazards. Based on Mann–Kendall trend test and copulas, this study investigated the characteristics of precipitation extremes as well as their implications in southwestern China (Yunnan, Guangxi and Guizhou Province), through analyzing the changing trends and probabilistic characteristics of six indices, including the consecutive dry days, consecutive wet days, annual total wet day precipitation, heavy precipitation days (R25), max 5 day precipitation amount (Rx5) and the rainy days (RDs). Results showed that the study area had generally become drier (regional mean annual precipitation decreased by 11.4 mm per decade) and experienced enhanced precipitation extremes in the past 60 years. Relatively higher risk of drought in Yuanan and flood in Guangxi was observed, respectively. However, the changing trends of the precipitation extremes were not spatially uniform: increasing risk of extreme wet events for Guangxi and Guizhou, and increasing probability of concurrent extreme wet and dry events for Yunnan. Meanwhile, trend analyses of the 10 year return levels of the selected indices implied that the severity of droughts decreased in Yunnan but increased significantly in Guangxi and Guizhou, and the severity of floods increased in Yunnan and Guangxi in the past decades. Hence, the policy-makers need to be aware of the different characterizations and the spatial heterogeneity of the precipitation extremes. (letters)

  6. Using waste oil to heat a greenhouse

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marla Schwartz

    2009-01-01

    During the winter of 1990, Northwoods Nursery (Elk River, ID) purchased a wood-burning system to heat the current greenhouses. This system burned slabs of wood to heat water that was then pumped into the greenhouses. The winter of 1990 was extremely harsh, requiring non-stop operation of the heating system. In order to keep seedlings in the greenhouse from freezing,...

  7. Heating being put into service

    CERN Multimedia

    2016-01-01

    The SMB-SE group would like to inform you that, the central heating will start this year, on Monday 3 October 2016, and will be progressively and depending on the weather forecast put into service throughout. All buildings will have heating within the following few days. Thank you for your understanding. The CERN heating team SMB-SE

  8. Extreme Programming: Maestro Style

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norris, Jeffrey; Fox, Jason; Rabe, Kenneth; Shu, I-Hsiang; Powell, Mark

    2009-01-01

    "Extreme Programming: Maestro Style" is the name of a computer programming methodology that has evolved as a custom version of a methodology, called extreme programming that has been practiced in the software industry since the late 1990s. The name of this version reflects its origin in the work of the Maestro team at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory that develops software for Mars exploration missions. Extreme programming is oriented toward agile development of software resting on values of simplicity, communication, testing, and aggressiveness. Extreme programming involves use of methods of rapidly building and disseminating institutional knowledge among members of a computer-programming team to give all the members a shared view that matches the view of the customers for whom the software system is to be developed. Extreme programming includes frequent planning by programmers in collaboration with customers, continually examining and rewriting code in striving for the simplest workable software designs, a system metaphor (basically, an abstraction of the system that provides easy-to-remember software-naming conventions and insight into the architecture of the system), programmers working in pairs, adherence to a set of coding standards, collaboration of customers and programmers, frequent verbal communication, frequent releases of software in small increments of development, repeated testing of the developmental software by both programmers and customers, and continuous interaction between the team and the customers. The environment in which the Maestro team works requires the team to quickly adapt to changing needs of its customers. In addition, the team cannot afford to accept unnecessary development risk. Extreme programming enables the Maestro team to remain agile and provide high-quality software and service to its customers. However, several factors in the Maestro environment have made it necessary to modify some of the conventional extreme

  9. Heat waves according to warm spell duration index in Slovakia during 1901-2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bochníček, Oliver; Faško, Pavel; Markovič, Ladislav

    2017-04-01

    A heat wave is a prolonged period of extremely high temperatures for a particular region. However, there exist no universal definitions for a heat wave as it is relative to a specific area and to a certain time of year. In fact, average temperatures in one region may be considered heat wave conditions in another. For instance, an average day in the Mediterranean would be regarded as heat wave conditions in Northern Europe. We have known that World Meteorological Organization definition of a heatwave which is "when the daily maximum temperature of more than five consecutive days exceeds the average maximum temperature by 5 °C, the normal period being 1961-1990". This rule has been accepted in contribution Heat waves and warm periods in Slovakia (Oliver Bochníček - Pavol Fa\\vsko - Ladislav Markovič) published (presented) in EGU 2016. To move on we have tried another criterion for heat waves evaluation (according to warm spell duration index, WSDI) and period since 1901 (1951) to 2016. Important for many sectors (hydrology, agriculture, transportation and tourism) is, that heat waves have been expected during the whole year and period, that is why it can have various impacts. Heat waves occurrence gave us interesting results especially after the 1990.

  10. Impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The analysis of the frequency of rainy days, rain days and heavy rainfall days as well as one-day extreme rainfall and return period has been carried out in this study to observe the impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk in India. The frequency of heavy rainfall events are decreasing in major parts ...

  11. Extreme meteorological conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Altinger de Schwarzkopf, M.L.

    1983-01-01

    Different meteorological variables which may reach significant extreme values, such as the windspeed and, in particular, its occurrence through tornadoes and hurricanes that necesarily incide and wich must be taken into account at the time of nuclear power plants' installation, are analyzed. For this kind of study, it is necessary to determine the basic phenomenum of design. Two criteria are applied to define the basic values of design for extreme meteorological variables. The first one determines the expected extreme value: it is obtained from analyzing the recurence of the phenomenum in a convened period of time, wich may be generally of 50 years. The second one determines the extreme value of low probability, taking into account the nuclear power plant's operating life -f.ex. 25 years- and considering, during said lapse, the occurrence probabilities of extreme meteorological phenomena. The values may be determined either by the deterministic method, which is based on the acknowledgement of the fundamental physical characteristics of the phenomena or by the probabilistic method, that aims to the analysis of historical statistical data. Brief comments are made on the subject in relation to the Argentine Republic area. (R.J.S.) [es

  12. Lunar Base Heat Pump

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, D.; Fischbach, D.; Tetreault, R.

    1996-01-01

    The objective of this project was to investigate the feasibility of constructing a heat pump suitable for use as a heat rejection device in applications such as a lunar base. In this situation, direct heat rejection through the use of radiators is not possible at a temperature suitable for lde support systems. Initial analysis of a heat pump of this type called for a temperature lift of approximately 378 deg. K, which is considerably higher than is commonly called for in HVAC and refrigeration applications where heat pumps are most often employed. Also because of the variation of the rejection temperature (from 100 to 381 deg. K), extreme flexibility in the configuration and operation of the heat pump is required. A three-stage compression cycle using a refrigerant such as CFC-11 or HCFC-123 was formulated with operation possible with one, two or three stages of compression. Also, to meet the redundancy requirements, compression was divided up over multiple compressors in each stage. A control scheme was devised that allowed these multiple compressors to be operated as required so that the heat pump could perform with variable heat loads and rejection conditions. A prototype heat pump was designed and constructed to investigate the key elements of the high-lift heat pump concept. Control software was written and implemented in the prototype to allow fully automatic operation. The heat pump was capable of operation over a wide range of rejection temperatures and cooling loads, while maintaining cooling water temperature well within the required specification of 40 deg. C +/- 1.7 deg. C. This performance was verified through testing.

  13. Primary energy savings using heat storage for biomass heating systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mitrović Dejan M.

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available District heating is an efficient way to provide heat to residential, tertiary and industrial users. The heat storage unit is an insulated water tank that absorbs surplus heat from the boiler. The stored heat in the heat storage unit makes it possible to heat even when the boiler is not working, thus increasing the heating efficiency. In order to save primary energy (fuel, the boiler operates on nominal load every time it is in operation (for the purpose of this research. The aim of this paper is to analyze the water temperature variation in the heat storage, depending on the heat load and the heat storage volume. Heat load is calculated for three reference days, with average daily temperatures from -5 to 5°C. The primary energy savings are also calculated for those days in the case of using heat storage in district heating.[Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. TR 33051: The concept of sustainable energy supply of settlements with energy efficient buildings

  14. Characterizing prolonged heat effects on mortality in a sub-tropical high-density city, Hong Kong

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Hung Chak; Lau, Kevin Ka-Lun; Ren, Chao; Ng, Edward

    2017-11-01

    Extreme hot weather events are likely to increase under future climate change, and it is exacerbated in urban areas due to the complex urban settings. It causes excess mortality due to prolonged exposure to such extreme heat. However, there is lack of universal definition of prolonged heat or heat wave, which leads to inadequacies of associated risk preparedness. Previous studies focused on estimating temperature-mortality relationship based on temperature thresholds for assessing heat-related health risks but only several studies investigated the association between types of prolonged heat and excess mortality. However, most studies focused on one or a few isolated heat waves, which cannot demonstrate typical scenarios that population has experienced. In addition, there are limited studies on the difference between daytime and nighttime temperature, resulting in insufficiency to conclude the effect of prolonged heat. In sub-tropical high-density cities where prolonged heat is common in summer, it is important to obtain a comprehensive understanding of prolonged heat for a complete assessment of heat-related health risks. In this study, six types of prolonged heat were examined by using a time-stratified analysis. We found that more consecutive hot nights contribute to higher mortality risk while the number of consecutive hot days does not have significant association with excess mortality. For a day after five consecutive hot nights, there were 7.99% [7.64%, 8.35%], 7.74% [6.93%, 8.55%], and 8.14% [7.38%, 8.88%] increases in all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. Non-consecutive hot days or nights are also found to contribute to short-term mortality risk. For a 7-day-period with at least five non-consecutive hot days and nights, there was 15.61% [14.52%, 16.70%] increase in all-cause mortality at lag 0-1, but only -2.00% [-2.83%, -1.17%] at lag 2-3. Differences in the temperature-mortality relationship caused by hot days and hot nights

  15. Day Care Centers

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — This database contains locations of day care centers for 50 states and Washington D.C. and Puerto Rico. The dataset only includes center based day care locations...

  16. Extremely deformable structures

    CERN Document Server

    2015-01-01

    Recently, a new research stimulus has derived from the observation that soft structures, such as biological systems, but also rubber and gel, may work in a post critical regime, where elastic elements are subject to extreme deformations, though still exhibiting excellent mechanical performances. This is the realm of ‘extreme mechanics’, to which this book is addressed. The possibility of exploiting highly deformable structures opens new and unexpected technological possibilities. In particular, the challenge is the design of deformable and bi-stable mechanisms which can reach superior mechanical performances and can have a strong impact on several high-tech applications, including stretchable electronics, nanotube serpentines, deployable structures for aerospace engineering, cable deployment in the ocean, but also sensors and flexible actuators and vibration absorbers. Readers are introduced to a variety of interrelated topics involving the mechanics of extremely deformable structures, with emphasis on ...

  17. Statistics of Extremes

    KAUST Repository

    Davison, Anthony C.

    2015-04-10

    Statistics of extremes concerns inference for rare events. Often the events have never yet been observed, and their probabilities must therefore be estimated by extrapolation of tail models fitted to available data. Because data concerning the event of interest may be very limited, efficient methods of inference play an important role. This article reviews this domain, emphasizing current research topics. We first sketch the classical theory of extremes for maxima and threshold exceedances of stationary series. We then review multivariate theory, distinguishing asymptotic independence and dependence models, followed by a description of models for spatial and spatiotemporal extreme events. Finally, we discuss inference and describe two applications. Animations illustrate some of the main ideas. © 2015 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.

  18. Is day surgery safe?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Majholm, Birgitte; Engbæk, J; Bartholdy, Jens

    2012-01-01

    Day surgery is expanding in several countries, and it is important to collect information about quality. The aim of this study was to assess morbidity and unanticipated hospital visits 0-30 days post-operatively in a large cohort.......Day surgery is expanding in several countries, and it is important to collect information about quality. The aim of this study was to assess morbidity and unanticipated hospital visits 0-30 days post-operatively in a large cohort....

  19. Fatal Exertional Heat Stroke and American Football Players: The Need for Regional Heat-Safety Guidelines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grundstein, Andrew J; Hosokawa, Yuri; Casa, Douglas J

    2018-01-01

      Weather-based activity modification in athletics is an important way to minimize heat illnesses. However, many commonly used heat-safety guidelines include a uniform set of heat-stress thresholds that do not account for geographic differences in acclimatization.   To determine if heat-related fatalities among American football players occurred on days with unusually stressful weather conditions based on the local climate and to assess the need for regional heat-safety guidelines.   Cross-sectional study.   Data from incidents of fatal exertional heat stroke (EHS) in American football players were obtained from the National Center for Catastrophic Sport Injury Research and the Korey Stringer Institute.   Sixty-one American football players at all levels of competition with fatal EHSs from 1980 to 2014.   We used the wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) and a z-score WBGT standardized to local climate conditions from 1991 to 2010 to assess the absolute and relative magnitudes of heat stress, respectively.   We observed a poleward decrease in exposure WBGTs during fatal EHSs. In milder climates, 80% of cases occurred at above-average WBGTs, and 50% occurred at WBGTs greater than 1 standard deviation from the long-term mean; however, in hotter climates, half of the cases occurred at near average or below average WBGTs.   The combination of lower exposure WBGTs and frequent extreme climatic values in milder climates during fatal EHSs indicates the need for regional activity-modification guidelines with lower, climatically appropriate weather-based thresholds. Established activity-modification guidelines, such as those from the American College of Sports Medicine, work well in the hotter climates, such as the southern United States, where hot and humid weather conditions are common.

  20. Day Care: Other Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hjartarson, Freida; And Others

    This collection of 5 bilingual papers on day care programs in foreign countries (China, the Soviet Union, and 3 Scandinavian countries) is part of a series of papers on various aspects of day care published by the Canadian Department of Health and Welfare. Each paper is presented in both English and French. Paper I considers day care services in…

  1. Every Day Is Mathematical

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barger, Rita H.; Jarrah, Adeeb M.

    2012-01-01

    March 14 is special because it is Pi Day. Mathematics is celebrated on that day because the date, 3-14, replicates the first three digits of pi. Pi-related songs, websites, trivia facts, and more are at the fingertips of interested teachers and students. Less celebrated, but still fairly well known, is National Metric Day, which falls on October…

  2. Adventure and Extreme Sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez, Andrew Thomas; Rao, Ashwin

    2016-03-01

    Adventure and extreme sports often involve unpredictable and inhospitable environments, high velocities, and stunts. These activities vary widely and include sports like BASE jumping, snowboarding, kayaking, and surfing. Increasing interest and participation in adventure and extreme sports warrants understanding by clinicians to facilitate prevention, identification, and treatment of injuries unique to each sport. This article covers alpine skiing and snowboarding, skateboarding, surfing, bungee jumping, BASE jumping, and whitewater sports with emphasis on epidemiology, demographics, general injury mechanisms, specific injuries, chronic injuries, fatality data, and prevention. Overall, most injuries are related to overuse, trauma, and environmental or microbial exposure. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Extremal graph theory

    CERN Document Server

    Bollobas, Bela

    2004-01-01

    The ever-expanding field of extremal graph theory encompasses a diverse array of problem-solving methods, including applications to economics, computer science, and optimization theory. This volume, based on a series of lectures delivered to graduate students at the University of Cambridge, presents a concise yet comprehensive treatment of extremal graph theory.Unlike most graph theory treatises, this text features complete proofs for almost all of its results. Further insights into theory are provided by the numerous exercises of varying degrees of difficulty that accompany each chapter. A

  4. Effect of heat treatment at 600 degree C for 10 hours on human BMP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Izawa, H.; Hachiya, Y.; Muramatsu, K.; Narita, Y.; Kawai, T.

    1999-01-01

    Viral infection are an extremely serious in allogeneic bone transplantations. While it is essential to kill viruses such as HIV in allogeneic bone graft, the osteoinductive activity must be preserved. Heat treatment of allogeneic bone graft at 60 degree C for 10 hours is effective in killing viruses such as HIV, but it is unclear to what extent the activity of human bone morphogenetic protein (hBMP) is preserved. In this experiment crude hBMP was extracted from both heated and non-heated human bones which were decalcified by the Urist method. Gelatin capsules containing 5mg of crude hBMP were transplanted into the thigh muscles of 5 week old mice. Human bone samples heated in a water bath at 60 degree C for 10 hours and non-heated samples were each transplanted into 5 mice. At 20 days after transplantation, the heterotopic bone formation was compared by evaluation of X-ray and histologicic analysis. X-rays showed heterotopic bone formation in both heated and non-heated samples. Further, histologic analysis showed that peripheral osteoid tissue had developed into laminar bone formation and interlaminar bone marrow was observed. Heterotopic bone formation was induced by crude hBMP from heated bones in a similar way to crude hBMP from non-heated bones observed in X-ray. There was no significant difference in histologic analysis. The crude hBMP, extracted from bones which were heat-treated at 60 degree C for 10 hours induced heterotopic bone formation similar to that in non-heated bone observed by X-ray and histologic analysis at 20 days after transplantation. This demostrates that the heat-treated bone preserved osteoinduction

  5. Slimmed May Day Holiday

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Liu Xinwen

    2008-01-01

    @@ Last November the State Council of China decided to renew its holiday system by reducing the seven-day Mav Dav holiday to three days and introducing three new one-day public holidays,namely the Qingming Festival,Dragon Boat Festival and Moon Festival.BY doing so,the three golden-week holidays that were introduced in 1999,namely the Spring Festival,Mav Dav and National Day,could be better distributed.The New Year's Eve holiday would remain one day.The new holiday plan was supposed to take effect in 2008.

  6. Identification of large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation in the US northeast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agel, Laurie; Barlow, Mathew; Feldstein, Steven B.; Gutowski, William J.

    2018-03-01

    Patterns of daily large-scale circulation associated with Northeast US extreme precipitation are identified using both k-means clustering (KMC) and Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) applied to tropopause height. The tropopause height provides a compact representation of the upper-tropospheric potential vorticity, which is closely related to the overall evolution and intensity of weather systems. Extreme precipitation is defined as the top 1% of daily wet-day observations at 35 Northeast stations, 1979-2008. KMC is applied on extreme precipitation days only, while the SOM algorithm is applied to all days in order to place the extreme results into the overall context of patterns for all days. Six tropopause patterns are identified through KMC for extreme day precipitation: a summertime tropopause ridge, a summertime shallow trough/ridge, a summertime shallow eastern US trough, a deeper wintertime eastern US trough, and two versions of a deep cold-weather trough located across the east-central US. Thirty SOM patterns for all days are identified. Results for all days show that 6 SOM patterns account for almost half of the extreme days, although extreme precipitation occurs in all SOM patterns. The same SOM patterns associated with extreme precipitation also routinely produce non-extreme precipitation; however, on extreme precipitation days the troughs, on average, are deeper and the downstream ridges more pronounced. Analysis of other fields associated with the large-scale patterns show various degrees of anomalously strong moisture transport preceding, and upward motion during, extreme precipitation events.

  7. Stellar extreme ultraviolet astronomy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cash, W.C. Jr.

    1978-01-01

    The design, calibration, and launch of a rocket-borne imaging telescope for extreme ultraviolet astronomy are described. The telescope, which employed diamond-turned grazing incidence optics and a ranicon detector, was launched November 19, 1976, from the White Sands Missile Range. The telescope performed well and returned data on several potential stellar sources of extreme ultraviolet radiation. Upper limits ten to twenty times more sensitive than previously available were obtained for the extreme ultraviolet flux from the white dwarf Sirius B. These limits fall a factor of seven below the flux predicted for the star and demonstrate that the temperature of Sirius B is not 32,000 K as previously measured, but is below 30,000 K. The new upper limits also rule out the photosphere of the white dwarf as the source of the recently reported soft x-rays from Sirius. Two other white dwarf stars, Feige 24 and G191-B2B, were observed. Upper limits on the flux at 300 A were interpreted as lower limits on the interstellar hydrogen column densities to these stars. The lower limits indicate interstellar hydrogen densitites of greater than .02 cm -3 . Four nearby stars (Sirius, Procyon, Capella, and Mirzam) were observed in a search for intense low temperature coronae or extended chromospheres. No extreme ultraviolet radiation from these stars was detected, and upper limits to their coronal emisson measures are derived

  8. Extremity x-ray

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/article/003461.htm Extremity x-ray To use the sharing features on this page, ... in the body Risks There is low-level radiation exposure. X-rays are monitored and regulated to provide the ...

  9. Extremity perfusion for sarcoma

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoekstra, Harald Joan

    2008-01-01

    For more than 50 years, the technique of extremity perfusion has been explored in the limb salvage treatment of local, recurrent, and multifocal sarcomas. The "discovery" of tumor necrosis factor-or. in combination with melphalan was a real breakthrough in the treatment of primarily irresectable

  10. Statistics of Local Extremes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Gunner Chr.; Bierbooms, W.; Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose

    2003-01-01

    . A theoretical expression for the probability density function associated with local extremes of a stochasticprocess is presented. The expression is basically based on the lower four statistical moments and a bandwidth parameter. The theoretical expression is subsequently verified by comparison with simulated...

  11. Heat pumps

    CERN Document Server

    Macmichael, DBA

    1988-01-01

    A fully revised and extended account of the design, manufacture and use of heat pumps in both industrial and domestic applications. Topics covered include a detailed description of the various heat pump cycles, the components of a heat pump system - drive, compressor, heat exchangers etc., and the more practical considerations to be taken into account in their selection.

  12. Climate change and the impact of extreme temperatures on aviation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coffel, E.; Horton, R.

    2014-12-01

    Weather is the most significant factor affecting aircraft operations, accounting for 70-80% of passenger delays and costing airlines hundreds of millions of dollars per year in lost revenue. Temperature and airport elevation significantly influence the maximum allowable takeoff weight of an aircraft by changing the surface air density and thus the lift produced at a given speed. For a given runway length, airport elevation, and aircraft type there is a temperature threshold above which the airplane cannot take off at its maximum weight and thus must be weight restricted. The number of summer days necessitating weight restriction has increased since 1980 along with the observed increase in surface temperature. Climate change is projected to increase mean temperatures at all airports and significantly increase the frequency and severity of extreme heat events at some. These changes will negatively affect aircraft performance, leading to increased weight restrictions especially at airports with short runways and little room to expand. For a Boeing 737-800 aircraft, we find that the number of weight restriction days between May and September will increase by 50-100% at four major airports in the United States by 2050-2070 under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario. These performance reductions may have a significant economic effect on the airline industry, leading to lower profits and higher passenger fares. Increased weight restrictions have previously been identified as potential impacts of climate change, but this study is the first to quantify the effect of higher temperatures on commercial aviation.

  13. Overview of the biology of extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutschick, V. P.; Bassirirad, H.

    2008-12-01

    Extreme events have, variously, meteorological origins as in heat waves or precipitation extremes, or biological origins as in pest and disease eruptions (or tectonic, earth-orbital, or impact-body origins). Despite growing recognition that these events are changing in frequency and intensity, a universal model of ecological responses to these events is slow to emerge. Extreme events, negative and positive, contrast with normal events in terms of their effects on the physiology, ecology, and evolution of organisms, hence also on water, carbon, and nutrient cycles. They structure biogeographic ranges and biomes, almost surely more than mean values often used to define biogeography. They are challenging to study for obvious reasons of field-readiness but also because they are defined by sequences of driving variables such as temperature, not point events. As sequences, their statistics (return times, for example) are challenging to develop, as also from the involvement of multiple environmental variables. These statistics are not captured well by climate models. They are expected to change with climate and land-use change but our predictive capacity is currently limited. A number of tools for description and analysis of extreme events are available, if not widely applied to date. Extremes for organisms are defined by their fitness effects on those organisms, and are specific to genotypes, making them major agents of natural selection. There is evidence that effects of extreme events may be concentrated in an extended recovery phase. We review selected events covering ranges of time and magnitude, from Snowball Earth to leaf functional loss in weather events. A number of events, such as the 2003 European heat wave, evidence effects on water and carbon cycles over large regions. Rising CO2 is the recent extreme of note, for its climatic effects and consequences for growing seasons, transpiration, etc., but also directly in its action as a substrate of photosynthesis

  14. Heat and Humidity in the City: Neighborhood Heat Index Variability in a Mid-Sized City in the Southeastern United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hass, Alisa L; Ellis, Kelsey N; Reyes Mason, Lisa; Hathaway, Jon M; Howe, David A

    2016-01-11

    Daily weather conditions for an entire city are usually represented by a single weather station, often located at a nearby airport. This resolution of atmospheric data fails to recognize the microscale climatic variability associated with land use decisions across and within urban neighborhoods. This study uses heat index, a measure of the combined effects of temperature and humidity, to assess the variability of heat exposure from ten weather stations across four urban neighborhoods and two control locations (downtown and in a nearby nature center) in Knoxville, Tennessee, USA. Results suggest that trees may negate a portion of excess urban heat, but are also associated with greater humidity. As a result, the heat index of locations with more trees is significantly higher than downtown and areas with fewer trees. Trees may also reduce heat stress by shading individuals from incoming radiation, though this is not considered in this study. Greater amounts of impervious surfaces correspond with reduced evapotranspiration and greater runoff, in terms of overall mass balance, leading to a higher temperature, but lower relative humidity. Heat index and relative humidity were found to significantly vary between locations with different tree cover and neighborhood characteristics for the full study time period as well as for the top 10% of heat index days. This work demonstrates the need for high-resolution climate data and the use of additional measures beyond temperature to understand urban neighborhood exposure to extreme heat, and expresses the importance of considering vulnerability differences among residents when analyzing neighborhood-scale impacts.

  15. Did European temperatures in 1540 exceed present-day records?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orth, Rene; Vogel, Martha M.; Luterbacher, Jürg; Pfister, Christian; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2017-04-01

    There is strong evidence that the year 1540 was exceptionally dry and warm in Central Europe. Here we infer 1540 summer temperatures from the number of dry days (NDDs) in spring (March-May) and summer (June-August) in 1540 derived from historical documentary evidence published elsewhere, and compare our estimates with present-day temperatures. We translate the NDD values into temperature distributions using a linear relationship between modeled temperature and NDD from a 3000 year pre-industrial control simulation with the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Our results show medium confidence that summer mean temperatures (T JJA) and maximum temperatures (TXx) in Central Europe in 1540 were warmer than the respective present-day mean summer temperatures (assessed between 1966-2015). The model-based reconstruction suggests further that with a probability of 40%-70%, the highest daily temperatures in 1540 were even warmer than in 2003, while there is at most a 20% probability that the 1540 mean summer temperature was warmer than that of 2003 in Central Europe. As with other state-of-the-art analyses, the uncertainty of the reconstructed 1540 summer weather in this study is considerable, for instance as extrapolation is required because 1540-like events are not captured by the employed Earth system model (ESM), and neither by other ESMs. However, in addition to paleoclimatological approaches we introduce here an independent methodology to estimate 1540 temperatures, and contribute consequently to a reduced overall uncertainty in the analysis of this event. The characterization of such events and the related climate system functioning is particularly relevant in the context of global warming and the corresponding increase of extreme heat wave magnitude and occurrence frequency. Orth, R., M.M. Vogel, J. Luterbacher, C. Pfister, and S.I. Seneviratne, (2016): Did European temperatures in 1540 exceed present-day records? Env. Res. Lett., 11, 114021, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/11/114021

  16. Open Day at SHMI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarosova, M.

    2010-09-01

    During the World Meteorological Day there has been preparing "Open Day" at Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute. This event has more than 10 years traditions. "Open Day" is one of a lot of possibilities to give more information about meteorology, climatology, hydrology too to public. This "Day" is executed in whole Slovakia. People can visit the laboratories, the forecasting room....and meteo and clima measuring points. The most popular is visiting forecasting room. Visitors are interested in e.g. climatologic change in Slovakia territory, preparing weather forecasting, dangerous phenomena.... Every year we have more than 500 visitors.

  17. Effects on Public Health of Heat Waves to Improve the Urban Quality of Life

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vito Telesca

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Life satisfaction has been widely used in recent studies to evaluate the effect of environmental factors on individuals’ well-being. In the last few years, many studies have shown that the potential impact of climate change on cities depends on a variety of social, economic, and environmental determinants. In particular, extreme events, such as flood and heat waves, may cause more severe impacts and induce a relatively higher level of vulnerability in populations that live in urban areas. Therefore, the impact of climate change and related extreme events certainly influences the economy and quality of life in affected cities. Heat wave frequency, intensity, and duration are increasing in global and local climate change scenarios. The association between high temperatures and morbidity is well-documented, but few studies have examined the role of meteo-climatic variables on hospital admissions. This study investigates the effects of temperature, relative humidity, and barometric pressure on health by linking daily access to a Matera (Italy hospital with meteorological conditions in summer 2012. Extreme heat wave episodes that affected most of the city from 1 June to 31 August 2012 (among the selected years 2003, 2012, and 2017 were analyzed. Results were compared with heat waves from other years included in the base period (1971–2000 and the number of emergency hospital admissions on each day was considered. The meteorological data used in this study were collected from two weather stations in Matera. In order to detect correlations between the daily emergency admissions and the extreme health events, a combined methodology based on a heat wave identification technique, multivariate analysis (PCA, and regression analysis was applied. The results highlight that the role of relative humidity decreases as the severity level of heat waves increases. Moreover, the combination of temperatures and daily barometric pressure range (DPR has been

  18. Evaluating infant core temperature response in a hot car using a heat balance model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grundstein, Andrew J; Duzinski, Sarah V; Dolinak, David; Null, Jan; Iyer, Sujit S

    2015-03-01

    Using a 1-year old male infant as the model subject, the objectives of this study were to measure increased body temperature of an infant inside an enclosed vehicle during the work day (8:00 am-4:00 pm) during four seasons and model the time to un-compensable heating, heat stroke [>40 °C (>104 °F)], and critical thermal maximum [>42 °C (>107.6 °F)]. A human heat balance model was used to simulate a child's physiological response to extreme heat exposure within an enclosed vehicle. Environmental variables were obtained from the nearest National Weather Service automated surface observing weather station and from an observational vehicular temperature study conducted in Austin, Texas in 2012. In all four seasons, despite differences in starting temperature and solar radiation, the model infant reached heat stroke and demise before 2:00 pm. Time to heat stroke and demise occurred most rapidly in summer, at intermediate durations in fall and spring, and most slowly in the winter. In August, the model infant reached un-compensable heat within 20 min, heat stroke within 105 min, and demise within 125 min. The average rate of heating from un-compensable heat to heat stroke was 1.7 °C/h (3.0 °F/h) and from heat stroke to demise was 4.8 °C/h (8.5 °F/h). Infants left in vehicles during the workday can reach hazardous thermal thresholds quickly even with mild environmental temperatures. These results provide a seasonal analogue of infant heat stroke time course. Further effort is required to create a universally available forensic tool to predict vehicular hyperthermia time course to demise.

  19. Extremes in nature

    CERN Document Server

    Salvadori, Gianfausto; Kottegoda, Nathabandu T

    2007-01-01

    This book is about the theoretical and practical aspects of the statistics of Extreme Events in Nature. Most importantly, this is the first text in which Copulas are introduced and used in Geophysics. Several topics are fully original, and show how standard models and calculations can be improved by exploiting the opportunities offered by Copulas. In addition, new quantities useful for design and risk assessment are introduced.

  20. Orthopaedics in day surgery

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    processing of day cases is separate, more efficient and cases of ... anaesthetists, patient records, costing of procedures, drugs to be ... Methods: Patients treated at two day surgical units study with the aid of careful record, as to the selection, ... treatment only. .... Trauma, especially road traffic .... children with cerebral palsy.

  1. NO TOBACCO DAY

    CERN Multimedia

    Medical Service

    2002-01-01

    The CERN Medical Service is joining in with the world no tobacco day, which takes place on 31 May 2002. We encourage you to take this opportunity to stop smoking for good. Nurses and Doctors will be present on that day to give out information on methods to stop smoking and to assist you in your efforts.

  2. Rhabdomyosarcoma of the extremity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rao, Bhaskar N

    1997-01-01

    Rhabdomyosarcoma is the most common soft tissue sarcoma accounting for almost 55%. These tumors arise from unsegmented mesoderm or primitive mesenchyma, which have the capacity to differentiate into muscle. Less than 5% occur in the first year of life. Extremity rhabdomyosarcoma are mainly seen in the adolescent years. The most common histologic subtype is the alveolar variant. Other characteristics of extremity rhabdomyosarcoma include a predilection for lymph node metastasis, a high local failure, and a relatively low survival rate. They often present as slow painless masses; however, lesions in the hand and foot often present as painful masses and imaging studies may show invasion of the bone. Initial diagnostic approaches include needle biopsy or incisional biopsy for larger lesions. Excisional biopsy is indicated preferably for lesions less than 2.5 cm. following this in most instances therapy is initiated with multi agent chemotherapy depending upon response, the next modality may be either surgery with intent to cure or radiation therapy. Amputation of an extremity for local control is not considered in most instances. Prognostic factors that have been determined over the years to be of significance by multi variant analysis have included age, tumor size, invasiveness, presence of either nodal or distant metastasis, and complete excision whenever feasible, with supplemental radiation therapy for local control

  3. Impact of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation on heat wave occurrence in Asia and Europe during the summer of 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, June-Yi; Hsu, Pang-Chi; ha, Kyung-Ja; Kim, Hae-Jeong; Jung, Yoo-Rim

    2017-04-01

    The summer of 2016 was the earth's hottest summer on record since 1880. Especially, in August, the global mean temperature was 1.66 degree higher than normal and heat waves set records across Asia, Europe, and North America. This study proposes that boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) played an important role in heat wave outbreaks over many regions of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropics in the summer 2016 in addition to other factors including global warming, atmosphere-land interaction, and Africa-Pakistan heavy rainfall. By utilizing the real-time multivariate BSISO indices recently proposed, it has been demonstrated that the two dominant BSISO modes significantly modulate occurrence probability and spatial distributions of extreme rainfall and heat wave over Asia and Europe depending on their phases. The BSISO1 represents the canonical northward propagating variability that often occurs in conjunction with the eastward propagating Madden-Julian Oscillation with quasi-oscillating periods of 30-60 days. The BSISO2 represents the northward/northwestward propagating variability with periods of 10-30 days during primarily the pre-monsoon and monsoon-onset season. In August of 2016, BSISO1 was very active with amplitude up to 2 standard deviation and stayed at phase 7 state for about 20 days. During the phase 7 of BSISO1, extreme convective activity over the South China Sea and western North Pacific typically exerts significant global teleconnection leading to heat wave occurrence over East Asia including Korea and Japan, some part of Russia and Europe, and the western and eastern part of North America. In particular, anticyclonic circulation anomaly tends to be developed over East Asia inducing enhanced adiabatic and diabatic warming over Korea and Japan providing a favorable condition for extreme heat wave occurrence. The August of 2016 exhibited the typical global teleconnection pattern of BSISO1 associated with active convection over the western

  4. Heat-Related Mortality in India: Excess All-Cause Mortality Associated with the 2010 Ahmedabad Heat Wave

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azhar, Gulrez Shah; Mavalankar, Dileep; Nori-Sarma, Amruta; Rajiva, Ajit; Dutta, Priya; Jaiswal, Anjali; Sheffield, Perry; Knowlton, Kim; Hess, Jeremy J.; Azhar, Gulrez Shah; Deol, Bhaskar; Bhaskar, Priya Shekhar; Hess, Jeremy; Jaiswal, Anjali; Khosla, Radhika; Knowlton, Kim; Mavalankar, Mavalankar; Rajiva, Ajit; Sarma, Amruta; Sheffield, Perry

    2014-01-01

    Introduction In the recent past, spells of extreme heat associated with appreciable mortality have been documented in developed countries, including North America and Europe. However, far fewer research reports are available from developing countries or specific cities in South Asia. In May 2010, Ahmedabad, India, faced a heat wave where the temperatures reached a high of 46.8°C with an apparent increase in mortality. The purpose of this study is to characterize the heat wave impact and assess the associated excess mortality. Methods We conducted an analysis of all-cause mortality associated with a May 2010 heat wave in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India, to determine whether extreme heat leads to excess mortality. Counts of all-cause deaths from May 1–31, 2010 were compared with the mean of counts from temporally matched periods in May 2009 and 2011 to calculate excess mortality. Other analyses included a 7-day moving average, mortality rate ratio analysis, and relationship between daily maximum temperature and daily all-cause death counts over the entire year of 2010, using month-wise correlations. Results The May 2010 heat wave was associated with significant excess all-cause mortality. 4,462 all-cause deaths occurred, comprising an excess of 1,344 all-cause deaths, an estimated 43.1% increase when compared to the reference period (3,118 deaths). In monthly pair-wise comparisons for 2010, we found high correlations between mortality and daily maximum temperature during the locally hottest “summer” months of April (r = 0.69, pheat (May 19–25, 2010), mortality rate ratios were 1.76 [95% CI 1.67–1.83, pheat wave in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India had a substantial effect on all-cause excess mortality, even in this city where hot temperatures prevail through much of April-June. PMID:24633076

  5. The Graduation Day

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    毛竹晨

    2004-01-01

    It is one of the hottest summer days that Cambridge has ever had.We wereclad(clothe的过去式和过去分词)in the black gown once more.However thiswill probably be my last time to wear it.I had not been wearing it that much af-ter all.After this day,it will be shipped back to my home and lie in my closet,just to be dug out many years later and the sight of it will bring me back to thisvery day.It is our graduation day,the day wher we can add a hood(头巾;兜帽)

  6. Heat pumps

    CERN Document Server

    Brodowicz, Kazimierz; Wyszynski, M L; Wyszynski

    2013-01-01

    Heat pumps and related technology are in widespread use in industrial processes and installations. This book presents a unified, comprehensive and systematic treatment of the design and operation of both compression and sorption heat pumps. Heat pump thermodynamics, the choice of working fluid and the characteristics of low temperature heat sources and their application to heat pumps are covered in detail.Economic aspects are discussed and the extensive use of the exergy concept in evaluating performance of heat pumps is a unique feature of the book. The thermodynamic and chemical properties o

  7. Towards constraining extreme temperature projections of the CMIP5 ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Martha-Marie; Orth, René; Isabelle Seneviratne, Sonia

    2016-04-01

    The frequency and intensity of heat waves is expected to change in future in response to global warming. Given the severe impacts of heat waves on ecosystems and society it is important to understand how and where they will intensify. Projections of extreme hot temperatures in the IPCC AR5 model ensemble show large uncertainties for projected changes of extreme temperatures in particular in Central Europe. In this region land-atmosphere coupling can contribute substantially to the development of heat waves. This coupling is also subject to change in future, while model projections display considerable spread. In this work we link projections of changes in extreme temperatures and of changes in land-atmosphere interactions with a particular focus on Central Europe. Uncertainties in projected extreme temperatures can be partly explained by different projected changes of the interplay between latent heat and temperature as well as soil moisture. Given the considerable uncertainty in land-atmosphere coupling representation already in the current climate, we furthermore employ observational data sets to constrain the model ensemble, and consequently the extreme temperature projections.

  8. Detection and attribution of extreme weather disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huggel, Christian; Stone, Dáithí; Hansen, Gerrit

    2014-05-01

    , with consequences being a function of the intensity of the physical weather event, the exposure and value of assets, and vulnerabilities. We have examined selected major extreme events and disasters, including superstorm Sandy in 2012, the Pakistan floods and the heat wave in Russia in 2010, the 2010 floods in Colombia and the 2011 floods in Australia. We systematically analyzed to what extent (anthropogenic) climate change may have contributed to intensity and frequency of the event, along with changes in the other risk variables, to eventually reach a more comprehensive understanding of the relative role of climate change in recent loss and damage of extreme weather events.

  9. AAS 228: Day 4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohler, Susanna

    2016-06-01

    began the session by explaining his new models which trace the diffusive cooling of an initial supernova shock. His team has created an open source code, the SuperNova Explosion Code or SNEC, to allow others to explore a variety of explosion properties.Janie De La Rosa then spoke about her work on observing Type IIn supernovae (those with narrow emission lines in their spectra) at ultraviolet and optical wavelengths. These wavelengths are sensitive to progenitor models and the geometry of the surrounding material.Composite image of the supernova remnant Cassiopeia A, using data from the Chandra X-ray telescope, NASAs Spitzer Space Telescope, and ground-based facilities. [NASA/CXC/SAO]Following the exploration of progenitor geometry, Douglas C. Leonard spoke about his work in hunting for polarization in type IIP supernovae (those with long, plateaued light curves). A high degree of polarization implies asymmetry in the explosion itself, and he has been able to find such asymmetry in a number of type IIP supernovae. He pointed out that bubble-like structure (like what we see in the beautiful supernova remnant Cassiopeia A) might explain the polarization as well. Switching gears, Karri Kolijonen spoke about an interesting X-ray binary (a binary consistent of a compact object and star that emits strongly in X-rays) known as GS 1354-64. This pair has an extremely short orbital period of just two and a half days! He explained how an instability in the black holes accretion disk might explain a recent outburst in the system.Thomas Pannuti explained the basic morphologies of supernova remnants: shell, composite, and mixed. He has taken extensive, multiwavelength images of a mixed remnant known as W28 from radio through X-ray wavelengths. He notes that the radio masers in the remnant are offset from the X-ray light, although the significance of this is still an open question.Finally, Maria Dainotti wrapped up the session with a discussion of long duration GRBs as standard

  10. Moving in extreme environments:what’s extreme and who decides?

    OpenAIRE

    Cotter, James David; Tipton, Michael J

    2014-01-01

    Humans work, rest and play in immensely varied extreme environments. The term ‘extreme’ typically refers to insufficiency or excess of one or more stressors, such as thermal energy or gravity. Individuals’ behavioural and physiological capacity to endure and enjoy such environments varies immensely. Adverse effects of acute exposure to these environments are readily identifiable (e.g. heat stroke or bone fracture), whereas adverse effects of chronic exposure (e.g. stress fractures or osteopor...

  11. Extreme events in total ozone over Arosa – Part 1: Application of extreme value theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. E. Rieder

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available In this study ideas from extreme value theory are for the first time applied in the field of stratospheric ozone research, because statistical analysis showed that previously used concepts assuming a Gaussian distribution (e.g. fixed deviations from mean values of total ozone data do not adequately address the structure of the extremes. We show that statistical extreme value methods are appropriate to identify ozone extremes and to describe the tails of the Arosa (Switzerland total ozone time series. In order to accommodate the seasonal cycle in total ozone, a daily moving threshold was determined and used, with tools from extreme value theory, to analyse the frequency of days with extreme low (termed ELOs and high (termed EHOs total ozone at Arosa. The analysis shows that the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD provides an appropriate model for the frequency distribution of total ozone above or below a mathematically well-defined threshold, thus providing a statistical description of ELOs and EHOs. The results show an increase in ELOs and a decrease in EHOs during the last decades. The fitted model represents the tails of the total ozone data set with high accuracy over the entire range (including absolute monthly minima and maxima, and enables a precise computation of the frequency distribution of ozone mini-holes (using constant thresholds. Analyzing the tails instead of a small fraction of days below constant thresholds provides deeper insight into the time series properties. Fingerprints of dynamical (e.g. ENSO, NAO and chemical features (e.g. strong polar vortex ozone loss, and major volcanic eruptions, can be identified in the observed frequency of extreme events throughout the time series. Overall the new approach to analysis of extremes provides more information on time series properties and variability than previous approaches that use only monthly averages and/or mini-holes and mini-highs.

  12. Research of the heat exchanging processes running in the heating and hot water supply loops of the coil heat exchangers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ірина Геннадіївна Шитікова

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The fuel-energy complex research has made it possible to disclose a huge power-saving potential in the municipal heat-and-power engineering. Power-and-resource-saving units and systems are becoming extremely urgent because of the power engineering crisis expansion. The self-adjusting heat supply system from the individual heating points with the heat-accumulating units and coil heat exchangers for independent heating and water supply systems has been examined. Coil heat exchangers are used in municipal heating for heat transfer (e.g. geothermal waters for the independent mains of the heating and hot water supply systems. The heat engineering calculation of the heating and accumulating unit with the coil heat exchanger for independent heat supply systems from individual heater was performed and experimental data were received at the experimental industrial unit under the laboratory conditions. The peculiarities of the flows in the intertubular space, their influence on the heat exchange and temperatures of the first and intermediate mains have been shown. It is important to know the processes running inside the apparatus to be able to improve the technical characteristics of the three-loop coil heat exchanger. The task solution will make it possible to save the materials consumption for the three-loop coil heat exchangers in the future

  13. The influence of heat stress on metabolic status of cows

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Horvat Jožef

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available It is considered that high air temperature and humidity during the summer are the main factors which adversely affect both the health and production-reproductive performance of high yielding dairy cows. The resulting heath stress leads to a series of changes in endocrine regulation of homeostasis. The changes in hormonal status reflect in some way to the indicators of metabolic status of the cows. The objective of this work was to investigate the influence of heat stress on metabolic status of cows. The experiment was carried out on 20 cows of Holstein-Friesian breed during the summer, in the period from 18th to 45th day of lactation. During the performance of the experiment, the value of heat index (THI was determined hourly and then the value of average morning (from 10 pm the previous day to 9 am the current day, afternoon (from 10 am to 9 pm the current day and all-day THI was calculated. Blood sampling was carried out on the 1st, 2nd, 8th, 11th, 14th, 18th, 25th, 29th and 37th day of the experiment, in the morning and the afternoon. On the basis of hourly THI values, whole experimental period was divided into three periods: period A during which the cows were exposed to a extreme high heat stress (THI≥78 at least 7 hours in 24 hours; period B during which the cows were exposed to a moderate heat stress (72≥THI≤78 at least 7 hours in 24 hours; period C during which the cows were not exposed to a heat stress (THI≤72 in 24 hours. The average daily THI in period A (73,25±0,89 was significantly higher (p<0,01, individually in regard to period B (71,45±0,96 and period C (65,41±2,09. THI was significantly higher in the period B than in the period C (p<0,01. Significantly lower blood glucose value (p<0,05 during the afternoon period in the cows exposed to the extreme heat stress (3,02±0,31 mmol/L in regard to the morning period (3,14±0,41 mmol/L points to the fact that in such conditions, metabolism redirects to use of glucose as an

  14. Heat transfer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saad, M.A.

    1985-01-01

    Heat transfer takes place between material systems as a result of a temperature difference. The transmission process involves energy conversions governed by the first and second laws of thermodynamics. The heat transfer proceeds from a high-temperature region to a low-temperature region, and because of the finite thermal potential, there is an increase in entropy. Thermodynamics, however, is concerned with equilibrium states, which includes thermal equilibrium, irrespective of the time necessary to attain these equilibrium states. But heat transfer is a result of thermal nonequilibrium conditions, therefore, the laws of thermodynamics alone cannot describe completely the heat transfer process. In practice, most engineering problems are concerned with the rate of heat transfer rather than the quantity of heat being transferred. Resort then is directed to the particular laws governing the transfer of heat. There are three distinct modes of heat transfer: conduction, convection, and radiation. Although these modes are discussed separately, all three types may occur simultaneously

  15. Adult Day Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Home Health Aide Semi Private Private $25,000 Adult Day Servi Acesssisted Living Home Care Nursing Homes $0 1. General information based on industry views of various members of the National Adult ...

  16. Adult Day Care

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Finding a Center Not all states license and regulate adult day care centers. There may be a ... is not usually covered by Medicare insurance, some financial assistance may be available through a federal or ...

  17. Climate Variability and Weather Extremes: Model-Simulated and Historical Data. Chapter 9

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schubert, Siegfried D.; Lim, Young-Kwon

    2012-01-01

    Extremes in weather and climate encompass a wide array of phenomena including tropical storms, mesoscale convective systems, snowstorms, floods, heat waves, and drought. Understanding how such extremes might change in the future requires an understanding of their past behavior including their connections to large-scale climate variability and trends. Previous studies suggest that the most robust findings concerning changes in short-term extremes are those that can be most directly (though not completely) tied to the increase in the global mean temperatures. These include the findings that (IPCC 2007): There has been a widespread reduction in the number of frost days in mid-latitude regions in recent decades, an increase in the number of warm extremes, particularly warm nights, and a reduction in the number of cold extremes, particularly cold nights. For North America in particular (CCSP SAP 3.3, 2008): There are fewer unusually cold days during the last few decades. The last 10 years have seen a lower number of severe cold waves than for any other 10-year period in the historical record that dates back to 1895. There has been a decrease in the number of frost days and a lengthening of the frost-free season, particularly in the western part of North America. Other aspects of extremes such as the changes in storminess have a less clear signature of long term change, with considerable interannual, and decadal variability that can obscure any climate change signal. Nevertheless, regarding extratropical storms (CCSP SAP 3.3, 2008): The balance of evidence suggests that there has been a northward shift in the tracks of strong low pressure systems (storms) in both the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins. For North America: Regional analyses suggest that there has been a decrease in snowstorms in the South and lower Midwest of the United States, and an increase in snowstorms in the upper Midwest and Northeast. Despite the progress already made, our understanding of the

  18. Modifications of the urban heat island characteristics under exceptionally hot weather - A case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Founda, Dimitra; Pierros, Fragiskos; Santamouris, Mathew

    2016-04-01

    Considerable recent research suggests that heat waves are becoming more frequent, more intense and longer in the future. Heat waves are characterised by the dominance of prolonged abnormally hot conditions related to synoptic scale anomalies, thus they affect extensive geographical areas. Heat waves (HW) have a profound impact on humans and they have been proven to increase mortality. Urban areas are known to be hotter than the surrounding rural areas due to the well documented urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon. Urban areas face increased risk under heat waves, due to the added heat from the urban heat island and increased population density. Given that urban populations keep increasing, citizens are exposed to significant heat related risk. Mitigation and adaptation strategies require a deep understanding of the response of the urban heat islands under extremely hot conditions. The response of the urban heat island under selected episodes of heat waves is examined in the city of Athens, from the comparison between stations of different characteristics (urban, suburban, coastal and rural). Two distinct episodes of heat waves occurring during summer 2000 were selected. Daily maximum air temperature at the urban station of the National Observatory of Athens (NOA) exceeded 40 0C for at least three consecutive days for both episodes. The intensity of UHI during heat waves was compared to the intensity under 'normal' conditions, represented from a period 'before' and 'after' the heat wave. Striking differences of UHI features between HW and no HW cases were observed, depending on the time of the day and the type of station. The comparison between the urban and the coastal station showed an increase of the order of 3 0C in the intensity of UHI during the HW days, as regards both daytime and nighttime conditions. The comparison between urban and a suburban (inland) station, revealed some different behaviour during HWs, with increases of the order of 3 0C in the nocturnal

  19. AAS 228: Day 1 morning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohler, Susanna

    2016-06-01

    Editors Note:This week were at the 228th AAS Meeting in San Diego, CA. Along with a team ofauthors from astrobites.com, I will bewritingupdates on selectedevents at themeeting and posting twiceeach day. Follow along here or atastrobites.com, or catch ourlive-tweeted updates from the@astrobites Twitter account. The usual posting schedule for AAS Nova will resumenext week.Come visit astrobites at the AAS booth we have swag!Things kicked off last night at our undergraduate reception booth. Thanks to all of you who stopped by we were delightedto hear from undergrads who already know and love the site, educators who want to use it in their classrooms, and students who had not yet been introduced to astrobites and were excited about a new resource!For the rest of the meeting we will be stationed at theAAS booth in the exhibit hall (booth #211-213), so drop by if you want to learn more (or pick up swag: weve got lots of stickers and sunglasses)!Mondaymorning was the official start of the meeting. Here are just a few of the talks and workshops astrobiters attended this morning.Opening Address(by Susanna Kohler)AAS President Meg Urry kicked off the meeting this morning at 8am with an overview of some of the great endeavors AAS is supporting. We astrobiters had personal motivation to drag ourselves out of bed that early: during this session, Urryannounced the new partnership between AAS and astrobites!Urry touched on some difficult topics in her welcome, including yesterdays tragedy in Orlando. Shereiteratedthe AASs support fortheCommittee for Sexual-Orientation and Gender Minorities in Astronomy (SGMA). She also reminded meeting attendees about the importance ofkeeping conference interactions professional, and pointed to the meetings anti-harassment policy.Partnership Announcement (by Michael Zevin)This morning, the American Astronomical Society announced the new partnership that it will have with Astrobites! We are beyond excited to embark on this new partnership with the

  20. Heat exchanger

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daman, Ernest L.; McCallister, Robert A.

    1979-01-01

    A heat exchanger is provided having first and second fluid chambers for passing primary and secondary fluids. The chambers are spaced apart and have heat pipes extending from inside one chamber to inside the other chamber. A third chamber is provided for passing a purge fluid, and the heat pipe portion between the first and second chambers lies within the third chamber.

  1. The waviness of the extratropical jet and daily weather extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Röthlisberger, Matthias; Martius, Olivia; Pfahl, Stephan

    2016-04-01

    In recent years the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes have experienced a large number of weather extremes with substantial socio-economic impact, such as the European and Russian heat waves in 2003 and 2010, severe winter floods in the United Kingdom in 2013/2014 and devastating winter storms such as Lothar (1999) and Xynthia (2010) in Central Europe. These have triggered an engaged debate within the scientific community on the role of human induced climate change in the occurrence of such extremes. A key element of this debate is the hypothesis that the waviness of the extratropical jet is linked to the occurrence of weather extremes, with a wavier jet stream favouring more extremes. Previous work on this topic is expanded in this study by analyzing the linkage between a regional measure of jet waviness and daily temperature, precipitation and wind gust extremes. We show that indeed such a linkage exists in many regions of the world, however this waviness-extremes linkage varies spatially in strength and sign. Locally, it is strong only where the relevant weather systems, in which the extremes occur, are affected by the jet waviness. Its sign depends on how the frequency of occurrence of the relevant weather systems is correlated with the occurrence of high and low jet waviness. These results go beyond previous studies by noting that also a decrease in waviness could be associated with an enhanced number of some weather extremes, especially wind gust and precipitation extremes over western Europe.

  2. Open Day: General Information

    CERN Multimedia

    2004-01-01

    http://www.cern.ch/cern50/ With 50 visit points, including theatre performances, debates and visits to installations that have never before been opened to the public, CERN's 50th anniversary Open Day is set to be a day to remember. Seven hundred volunteers have signed up to help for the day. The Open Day team truly appreciates this wonderful show of support! The Open Day would not be possible without their help. Car parking and Access Cars with a CERN sticker can access all CERN sites as normal. However, to avoid congestion on Meyrin site, we ask you to park in areas that will not be open to the public (see below) and to use the shuttle services wherever possible for your transport during the day. Private cars on the French side of the border without a CERN sticker will be diverted to a car park area in the Prévessin site. There is a shuttle service connecting the Meyrin and Prévessin sites via SM18 every 20 minutes. Private cars on the Swiss side of the border without a CERN sticker will be diverte...

  3. Upper extremity golf injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohn, Michael A; Lee, Steven K; Strauss, Eric J

    2013-01-01

    Golf is a global sport enjoyed by an estimated 60 million people around the world. Despite the common misconception that the risk of injury during the play of golf is minimal, golfers are subject to a myriad of potential pathologies. While the majority of injuries in golf are attributable to overuse, acute traumatic injuries can also occur. As the body's direct link to the golf club, the upper extremities are especially prone to injury. A thorough appreciation of the risk factors and patterns of injury will afford accurate diagnosis, treatment, and prevention of further injury.

  4. Intensity of heat stress in winter wheat—phenology compensates for the adverse effect of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rezaei, Ehsan Eyshi; Siebert, Stefan; Ewert, Frank

    2015-01-01

    Higher temperatures during the growing season are likely to reduce crop yields with implications for crop production and food security. The negative impact of heat stress has also been predicted to increase even further for cereals such as wheat under climate change. Previous empirical modeling studies have focused on the magnitude and frequency of extreme events during the growth period but did not consider the effect of higher temperature on crop phenology. Based on an extensive set of climate and phenology observations for Germany and period 1951–2009, interpolated to 1 × 1 km resolution and provided as supplementary data to this article (available at stacks.iop.org/ERL/10/024012/mmedia), we demonstrate a strong relationship between the mean temperature in spring and the day of heading (DOH) of winter wheat. We show that the cooling effect due to the 14 days earlier DOH almost fully compensates for the adverse effect of global warming on frequency and magnitude of crop heat stress. Earlier heading caused by the warmer spring period can prevent exposure to extreme heat events around anthesis, which is the most sensitive growth stage to heat stress. Consequently, the intensity of heat stress around anthesis in winter crops cultivated in Germany may not increase under climate change even if the number and duration of extreme heat waves increase. However, this does not mean that global warning would not harm crop production because of other impacts, e.g. shortening of the grain filling period. Based on the trends for the last 34 years in Germany, heat stress (stress thermal time) around anthesis would be 59% higher in year 2009 if the effect of high temperatures on accelerating wheat phenology were ignored. We conclude that climate impact assessments need to consider both the effect of high temperature on grain set at anthesis but also on crop phenology. (letter)

  5. Intensity of heat stress in winter wheat—phenology compensates for the adverse effect of global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eyshi Rezaei, Ehsan; Siebert, Stefan; Ewert, Frank

    2015-02-01

    Higher temperatures during the growing season are likely to reduce crop yields with implications for crop production and food security. The negative impact of heat stress has also been predicted to increase even further for cereals such as wheat under climate change. Previous empirical modeling studies have focused on the magnitude and frequency of extreme events during the growth period but did not consider the effect of higher temperature on crop phenology. Based on an extensive set of climate and phenology observations for Germany and period 1951-2009, interpolated to 1 × 1 km resolution and provided as supplementary data to this article (available at stacks.iop.org/ERL/10/024012/mmedia), we demonstrate a strong relationship between the mean temperature in spring and the day of heading (DOH) of winter wheat. We show that the cooling effect due to the 14 days earlier DOH almost fully compensates for the adverse effect of global warming on frequency and magnitude of crop heat stress. Earlier heading caused by the warmer spring period can prevent exposure to extreme heat events around anthesis, which is the most sensitive growth stage to heat stress. Consequently, the intensity of heat stress around anthesis in winter crops cultivated in Germany may not increase under climate change even if the number and duration of extreme heat waves increase. However, this does not mean that global warning would not harm crop production because of other impacts, e.g. shortening of the grain filling period. Based on the trends for the last 34 years in Germany, heat stress (stress thermal time) around anthesis would be 59% higher in year 2009 if the effect of high temperatures on accelerating wheat phenology were ignored. We conclude that climate impact assessments need to consider both the effect of high temperature on grain set at anthesis but also on crop phenology.

  6. Heat pipe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Triggs, G.W.; Lightowlers, R.J.; Robinson, D.; Rice, G.

    1986-01-01

    A heat pipe for use in stabilising a specimen container for irradiation of specimens at substantially constant temperature within a liquid metal cooled fast reactor, comprises an evaporator section, a condenser section, an adiabatic section therebetween, and a gas reservoir, and contains a vapourisable substance such as sodium. The heat pipe further includes a three layer wick structure comprising an outer relatively fine mesh layer, a coarse intermediate layer and a fine mesh inner layer for promoting unimpeded return of condensate to the evaporation section of the heat pipe while enhancing heat transfer with the heat pipe wall and reducing entrainment of the condensate by the upwardly rising vapour. (author)

  7. Heat pipe turbine vane cooling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Langston, L.; Faghri, A. [Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT (United States)

    1995-10-01

    The applicability of using heat pipe principles to cool gas turbine vanes is addressed in this beginning program. This innovative concept involves fitting out the vane interior as a heat pipe and extending the vane into an adjacent heat sink, thus transferring the vane incident heat transfer through the heat pipe to heat sink. This design provides an extremely high heat transfer rate and an uniform temperature along the vane due to the internal change of phase of the heat pipe working fluid. Furthermore, this technology can also eliminate hot spots at the vane leading and trailing edges and increase the vane life by preventing thermal fatigue cracking. There is also the possibility of requiring no bleed air from the compressor, and therefore eliminating engine performance losses resulting from the diversion of compressor discharge air. Significant improvement in gas turbine performance can be achieved by using heat pipe technology in place of conventional air cooled vanes. A detailed numerical analysis of a heat pipe vane will be made and an experimental model will be designed in the first year of this new program.

  8. Geothermal heat pumps - Trends and comparisons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lund, John W

    1989-01-01

    Heat pumps are used where geothermal water or ground temperatures are only slightly above normal, generally 50 to 90 deg. F. Conventional geothermal heating (and cooling) systems are not economically efficient at these temperatures. Heat pumps, at these temperatures, can provide space heating and cooling, and with a desuperheater, domestic hot water. Two basic heat pump systems are available, air-source and water- or ground-source. Water- and ground-coupled heat pumps, referred to as geothermal heat pumps (GHP), have several advantages over air-source heat pumps. These are: (1) they consume about 33% less annual energy, (2) they tap the earth or groundwater, a more stable energy source than air, (3) they do not require supplemental heat during extreme high or low outside temperatures, (4) they use less refrigerant (freon), and (5) they have a simpler design and consequently less maintenance.

  9. 4th Optimization Day

    CERN Document Server

    Eberhard, Andrew; Ralph, Daniel; Glover, Barney M

    1999-01-01

    Although the monograph Progress in Optimization I: Contributions from Aus­ tralasia grew from the idea of publishing a proceedings of the Fourth Optimiza­ tion Day, held in July 1997 at the Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology, the focus soon changed to a refereed volume in optimization. The intention is to publish a similar book annually, following each Optimization Day. The idea of having an annual Optimization Day was conceived by Barney Glover; the first of these Optimization Days was held in 1994 at the University of Ballarat. Barney hoped that such a yearly event would bring together the many, but widely dispersed, researchers in Australia who were publishing in optimization and related areas such as control. The first Optimization Day event was followed by similar conferences at The University of New South Wales (1995), The University of Melbourne (1996), the Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology (1997), and The University of Western Australia (1998). The 1999 conference will return to Ballarat ...

  10. Drinking during marathon running in extreme heat: a video analysis ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ing conditions during the 1996 Olympic Games in 'Hotlanta' were comparatively cool ... video analysis study of the top finishers in the 2004 athens olympic ..... a competitive 25 km military route march in 44°C, they were able to drink up to 1.2 ...

  11. Correlation between Space and Atmospheric March 2012 Extreme Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anagnostopoulos, Georgios C.

    2015-04-01

    Previous studies have provided statistical evidence of a solar cycle correlation between space weather and meteorological phenomena. In this study we present a case study, the March 2012 events, with a strong evidence of such a correlation between space and atmospheric extreme events. March 2012 phenomena, beside a great CME (March 7) and a following superstorm, has been most known in the scientific community as well as in the public from the historic heat wave in USA. This event was not anticipated by solely atmospheric models (called a "black swan event":http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/csi/events/2012/marchheatwave/anticipation.html). Furthermore, various extreme phenomena as high temperatures, intense rainfalls and ice extent at middle and high latitudes followed the March 7, 2012 CME all over the globe (USA, Europe, Australia, Antartic), while unusual measurements of various atmospheric and ionospheric quantities were observed by a series of satellites (TIMED, MODIS, NOAA etc.) In this study we concentrate to (a) the unusual high maximum of temperature in north-east USA (highest values since 1910) and (b) intense winds, rainfalls and fluctuating (>1500 V/m) geolectric fields in South East Europe (Greece). These events were observed almost simultaneously with geomagnetic storms and unusual radiation belt electron precipitation (RBEP) events on days 6-9, 10-12 and 26-28.3.2012 (two CMEs and one CIR). The most striking result is the time coincidence of variations of several space and meteorological measurements, which, for instance, most probably suggests a direct influence of the RBEP on the intense rainfalls observed in Greece. It is also possible that the RBEP at polar latitudes was responsible for the positive North Atlantic Oscillation effect evaluated at those times, which contributed to the global middle and high latitude weather variations. Our study provides an example of possible space weather utility to the atmospheric models, and, therefore, to the

  12. Human Thermal Comfort and Heat Stress in an Outdoor Urban Arid Environment: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. M. Abdel-Ghany

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available To protect humans from heat stress risks, thermal comfort and heat stress potential were evaluated under arid environment, which had never been made for such climate. The thermal indices THI, WBGT, PET, and UTCI were used to evaluate thermal comfort and heat stress. RayMan software model was used to estimate the PET, and the UTCI calculator was used for UTCI. Dry and wet bulb temperatures (Td, Tw, natural wet bulb temperature (Tnw, and globe temperature (Tg were measured in a summer day to be used in the calculation. The results showed the following. (i The thermal sensation and heat stress levels can be evaluated by either the PET or UTCI scales, and both are valid for extremely high temperature in the arid environment. (ii In the comfort zone, around 75% of individuals would be satisfied with the surrounding environment and feel comfortable during the whole day. (iii Persons are exposed to strong heat stress and would feel uncomfortable most of the daytime in summer. (iv Heat fatigue is expected with prolonged exposure to sun light and activity. (v During the daytime, humans should schedule their activities according to the highest permissible values of the WBGT to avoid thermal shock.

  13. Jupiter Night and Day

    Science.gov (United States)

    2001-01-01

    Day and night side narrow angle images taken on January 1, 2001 illustrating storms visible on the day side which are the sources of visible lightning when viewed on the night side. The images have been enhanced in contrast. Note the two day-side occurrences of high clouds, in the upper and lower parts of the image, are coincident with lightning storms seen on the darkside. The storms occur at 34.5 degrees and 23.5 degrees North latitude, within one degree of the latitudes at which similar lightning features were detected by the Galileo spacecraft. The images were taken at different times. The storms' longitudinal separation changes from one image to the next because the winds carrying them blow at different speeds at the two latitudes.

  14. Day of Remembrance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uri, John

    2018-01-01

    Every year in late January, NASA holds a Day of Remembrance, honoring the astronauts lost in three major space flight accidents: Apollo 1, Challenger and Columbia. In an odd tragic coincidence, all three of the accidents happened in late January or early February, although many years apart: Apollo 1 on January 27, 1967; Challenger on January 28, 1986; and Columbia on February 1, 2003. While the day is a solemn one to commemorate the astronauts who lost their lives, it is also a day to reflect on the errors that led to the accidents and to remind all NASA workers and managers to be ever vigilant so that preventable accidents don't happen again.

  15. Compact seasonal PCM heat storage for solar heating systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dannemand, Mark

    Space heating of buildings and preparation of domestic hot water accounts for a large part of the society’s energy consumption. Solar radiation is an abundant and renewable energy source which can be harvested by solar collectors and used to cover heating demands in the built environment....... The seasonal availability of solar energy does however not match with the heating demands in buildings which typically are large in winter periods when limited solar energy is available. Heat can be stored over a few days in water stores but continuous heat losses limits the storage periods. The possibility...... of storing heat from summer where solar energy is widely available to winter periods where the heating demands are large, allows for implementing more renewable energy in our energy system. The phase change material (PCM) sodium acetate trihydrate (SAT) melts at 58 °C. The melting process requires...

  16. Recent and future extreme precipitation over Ukraine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vyshkvarkova, Olena; Voskresenskaya, Elena

    2014-05-01

    of Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Typical space distribution of extreme precipitation (R95p) for seasons and for year is characterized by their southward intensity increasing from North-East and North-West. Summer precipitation extremes are characterized by quite homogeneous distribution. Linear trends of indices of precipitation extremes (R95p, R20mm and R30mm) for period 1951 - 2005 are mainly negative in winter season and positive in summer. To analyze the possible changes of extreme precipitation it was calculated the R95p index for recent climate period (1986 - 2005) and for periods 2046 - 2065 and 2081 - 2100 (as it was recommended by IPCC). Its difference between 1986 - 2005 and 2046 - 2065 shows that intensity of extreme precipitation will decrease in the north-east and increase in the south-west regions, especially in summer season. Magnitude of intensity changes of extreme precipitation will be ± 4 - 5 mm/day. The intensity changes of extreme precipitation since the recent climate period till the end of the century will be some less (2 - 3 mm/day) than in previous period, except summer months. Number of cases with precipitation extremes will be increase in southern regions of Ukraine in summer seasons. In other seasons it will be at the recent climate level.

  17. Heat-related deaths in hot cities: estimates of human tolerance to high temperature thresholds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harlan, Sharon L; Chowell, Gerardo; Yang, Shuo; Petitti, Diana B; Morales Butler, Emmanuel J; Ruddell, Benjamin L; Ruddell, Darren M

    2014-03-20

    In this study we characterized the relationship between temperature and mortality in central Arizona desert cities that have an extremely hot climate. Relationships between daily maximum apparent temperature (ATmax) and mortality for eight condition-specific causes and all-cause deaths were modeled for all residents and separately for males and females ages heat. For this condition-specific cause of death, the heat thresholds in all gender and age groups (ATmax = 90-97 °F; 32.2-36.1 °C) were below local median seasonal temperatures in the study period (ATmax = 99.5 °F; 37.5 °C). Heat threshold was defined as ATmax at which the mortality ratio begins an exponential upward trend. Thresholds were identified in younger and older females for cardiac disease/stroke mortality (ATmax = 106 and 108 °F; 41.1 and 42.2 °C) with a one-day lag. Thresholds were also identified for mortality from respiratory diseases in older people (ATmax = 109 °F; 42.8 °C) and for all-cause mortality in females (ATmax = 107 °F; 41.7 °C) and males Heat-related mortality in a region that has already made some adaptations to predictable periods of extremely high temperatures suggests that more extensive and targeted heat-adaptation plans for climate change are needed in cities worldwide.

  18. Extreme coal handling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bradbury, S; Homleid, D. [Air Control Science Inc. (United States)

    2004-04-01

    Within the journals 'Focus on O & M' is a short article describing modifications to coal handling systems at Eielson Air Force Base near Fairbanks, Alaska, which is supplied with power and heat from a subbituminous coal-fired central plant. Measures to reduce dust include addition of an enclosed recirculation chamber at each transfer point and new chute designs to reduce coal velocity, turbulence, and induced air. The modifications were developed by Air Control Science (ACS). 7 figs., 1 tab.

  19. Extreme Temperatures over India in the 1.5°C and 2°C warmer worlds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thanigachalam, A.; Achutarao, K. M.

    2017-12-01

    n the summer of 2015 a heat wave claimed more than 2500 lives of southeastern India. Wehner et al., (2016) showed that the risk of this heat wave has increased due to anthropogenic forcings. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, surface temperature over India shows a rate of increase of about 0.2°C/decade during the 21st Century (Basha et al., 2017). The extreme temperatures that have occurred in the recent past and further increases projected for the future have implications for human health and productivity. In light of the Paris accords, future stabilization of global mean temperature at the 1.5°C above pre-industrial aspirational target and the "not to be exceeded" 2°C target (still higher than current temperatures), the possibility of increases in extreme temperatures under these scenarios is very real. In this study we seek to understand the nature of extreme temperatures over India in the 1.5°C and 2°C worlds in comparison to the current climate. We make use of model output contributed under the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts project (HAPPI; Mitchell et al., 2017). The HAPPI database contains output from many atmospheric GCMs with multiple simulations ( 100 each) of historical (2005-2015), 1.5°C warmer decade, and 2°C warmer decade. The large number of ensembles provides an opportunity to study the extremes in temperature that occur over India and how they may change. In order to provide insights into the future comparable against current operational practices, we make use of definitions of "hot days", "heat waves", and "severe heat waves" used by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). We compare modelled data (and bias corrected model output where available) against observed daily temperatures from the IMD gridded (1°x1°) dataset available for 1951-2015 as also circulation features that lead to such events by comparing against reanalysis products. We also investigate the timing of such events in the future scenarios

  20. Investigating NARCCAP Precipitation Extremes via Bivariate Extreme Value Theory (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weller, G. B.; Cooley, D. S.; Sain, S. R.; Bukovsky, M. S.; Mearns, L. O.

    2013-12-01

    We introduce methodology from statistical extreme value theory to examine the ability of reanalysis-drive regional climate models to simulate past daily precipitation extremes. Going beyond a comparison of summary statistics such as 20-year return values, we study whether the most extreme precipitation events produced by climate model simulations exhibit correspondence to the most extreme events seen in observational records. The extent of this correspondence is formulated via the statistical concept of tail dependence. We examine several case studies of extreme precipitation events simulated by the six models of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) driven by NCEP reanalysis. It is found that the NARCCAP models generally reproduce daily winter precipitation extremes along the Pacific coast quite well; in contrast, simulation of past daily summer precipitation extremes in a central US region is poor. Some differences in the strength of extremal correspondence are seen in the central region between models which employ spectral nudging and those which do not. We demonstrate how these techniques may be used to draw a link between extreme precipitation events and large-scale atmospheric drivers, as well as to downscale extreme precipitation simulated by a future run of a regional climate model. Specifically, we examine potential future changes in the nature of extreme precipitation along the Pacific coast produced by the pineapple express (PE) phenomenon. A link between extreme precipitation events and a "PE Index" derived from North Pacific sea-surface pressure fields is found. This link is used to study PE-influenced extreme precipitation produced by a future-scenario climate model run.

  1. Marketing Your Day Camp.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coleman, George

    1997-01-01

    Marketing strategies for day camps include encouraging camp staff to get involved in organizations involving children, families, and communities; holding camp fairs; offering the use of camp facilities to outside groups; hosting sport leagues and local youth outings; planning community fairs; and otherwise involving the camp in the community. (LP)

  2. Fabulous Weather Day

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Candice; Mogil, H. Michael

    2007-01-01

    Each year, first graders at Kensington Parkwood Elementary School in Kensington, Maryland, look forward to Fabulous Weather Day. Students learn how meteorologists collect data about the weather, how they study wind, temperature, precipitation, basic types/characteristics of clouds, and how they forecast. The project helps the students grow in…

  3. Every Child, Every Day

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allington, Richard L.; Gabriel, Rachael E.

    2012-01-01

    We know more now than we ever did before about how to make every child a successful reader, write Allington and Gabriel in this research review. Yet, few students regularly receive the best reading instruction we know how to give. The authors present research supporting their recommendation that every child, every day, should (1) read something he…

  4. NATIONAL HEARING DAY

    CERN Multimedia

    2003-01-01

    The 12th of June 2003 Is the French National Hearing Day. The Medical Service invites everyone working at CERN to come and have an ear test at the infirmary. Bld. 57, ground floor, between 9h00 and 16h00 Tel. 73802

  5. National hearing day

    CERN Multimedia

    2003-01-01

    The 12th of June 2003 Is the French National Hearing Day. The Medical Service invites everyone working at CERN to come and have an ear test at the infirmary. Bld. 57, ground floor, between 9h00 and 16h00 Tel. 73802

  6. CERN openlab Open Day

    CERN Multimedia

    Purcell, Andrew Robert

    2015-01-01

    The CERN openlab Open Day took place on 10 June, 2015. This was the first in a series of annual events at which research and industrial teams from CERN openlab can present their projects, share achievements, and collect feedback from their user communities.

  7. Ten-day rule

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knox, E.G.; Stewart, A.M.; Kneale, G.W.; Gilman, E.A.

    1987-01-01

    The authors argue against R.H. Mole's paper (Lancet, Dec. 12 1987), supporting the relaxation of ICRP recommendations and the DHSS decision to withdraw the 10 day rule in relation to diagnostic radiography for menstruating women, and draw attention to the recent refinement of estimates of the enhanced risk of childhood cancers, following diagnostic radiography during pregnancy. (U.K.)

  8. National HIV Testing Day

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    Dr. Kevin A. Fenton, Director of CDC's National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention, discusses National HIV Testing Day, an annual observance which raises awareness of the importance of knowing one's HIV status and encourages at-risk individuals to get an HIV test.

  9. 90-Day Cycle Handbook

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Sandra; Takahashi, Sola

    2013-01-01

    90-Day Cycles are a disciplined and structured form of inquiry designed to produce and test knowledge syntheses, prototyped processes, or products in support of improvement work. With any type of activity, organizations inevitably encounter roadblocks to improving performance and outcomes. These barriers might include intractable problems at…

  10. World Heart Day

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2009-09-01

    For World Heart Day, learn more about what heart-healthy steps you can take in the workplace.  Created: 9/1/2009 by National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion (NCCDPHP).   Date Released: 9/9/2009.

  11. Radiochemistry days; Journees radiochimie

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-09-01

    This document provides the 44 papers (transparencies used during the presentations and posters) presented at the Radiochemistry Days, held September 3-4, 1998 in Nantes, France. The main studied topics were problematic questions concerning the nuclear fuel cycle and in particular the management, storage of radioactive wastes and the environmental impact. (O.M.)

  12. Extreme Rainfall In A City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nkemdirim, Lawrence

    Cities contain many structures and activities that are vulnerable to severe weather. Heavy precipitation cause floods which can damage structures, compromise transportation and water supply systems, and slow down economic and social activities. Rain induced flood patterns in cities must be well understood to enable effective placement of flood control and other regulatory measures. The planning goal is not to eliminate all floods but to reduce their frequency and resulting damage. Possible approaches to such planning include probability based extreme event analysis. Precipitation is normally the most variable hydrologic element over a given area. This variability results from the distribution of clouds and in cloud processes in the atmosphere, the storm path, and the distribution of topographical features on the ground along path. Some studies suggest that point rainfall patterns are also affected by urban industrial effects hence some agreement that cities are wetter than the country surrounding them. However, there are still questions regarding the intra- urban distribution of precipitation. The sealed surfaces, urban structures, and the urban heat anomaly increase convection in cities which may enhance the generation of clouds. Increased dust and gaseous aerosols loads are effective condensation and sublimation nuclei which may also enhance the generation of precipitation. Based on these associations, the greatest amount of convection type rainfall should occur at city center. A study of summer rainfall in Calgary showed that frequencies of trace amounts of rainfall and events under 0.2mm are highest downtown than elsewhere. For amounts greater than than 0.2 mm, downtown sites were not favored. The most compelling evidence for urban-industrial precipitation enhancement came from the Metromex project around St. Loius, Missouri where maximum increases of between 5 to 30 per cent in summer rainfall downwind of the city was linked to urbanization and

  13. One Day on Earth

    CERN Multimedia

    2011-01-01

    In collaboration with the CineGlobe Film Festival, the One Day on Earth global film project invites you to share your story of scientific inspiration, scientific endeavors and technological advancement on 11 November 2011 (11.11.11).   Technology in the 21st century continuously inspires us to re-imagine the world. From outer-space to cyberspace, new ideas that we hope will improve the lives of future generations keep us in a state of change. However, these new technologies may alter the nature of our shared existence in ways not yet known. On 11.11.11, we invite you to record the exciting ways that science is a part of your life, together with people around the world who will be documenting their lives on this day of global creation. See www.onedayonearth.org for details on how to participate.

  14. CERN Heart Days

    CERN Multimedia

    2003-01-01

    14 & 15 OCTOBER 2003 The Medical Service and the Fire Brigade invite everyone working at CERN to participate in the above event. INFIRMARY 9 am to 16.30 pm Building 57, ground floor No need to book HEALTHY HEART? Evaluation of personal cardiac risks through the monitoring of: Blood pressure Cholesterol and sugar levels Body Mass Index ... and more Leaflets, information and advice concerning cardiac issues FIRE BRIGADE 9 to 12am - Building 65 Please book (limited to 15 people/day) FIRST AID COURSES What to do in a Cardiac Emergency (3 h. duration) Places are limited and on reservation only (15 people/day). To book, e-mail the Medical Services on: service.medical@cern.ch

  15. CERN Heart Days

    CERN Multimedia

    2003-01-01

    14 & 15 OCTOBER 2003 The Medical Service and the Fire Brigade invite everyone working at CERN to participate in the above event. INFIRMARY 9 am to 16.30 pm Building 57, ground floor no need to book HEALTHY HEART? • Evaluation of personal cardiac risks through the monitoring of: Blood pressure Cholesterol and sugar levels Body Mass Index ... and more • Leaflets, information and advice concerning cardiac issues FIRE BRIGADE 9 to 12 am - Building 65 Please book (limited to 15 people/day) FIRST AID COURSES • What to do in a Cardiac Emergency (3 h. duration) Places are limited and on reservation only (15 people/day). To book, e-mail the Medical Services on: service.medical@cern.ch

  16. Computer Security Day

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN Bulletin

    2010-01-01

      Viruses, phishing, malware and cyber-criminals can all threaten your computer and your data, even at CERN! Experts will share their experience with you and offer solutions to keep your computer secure. Thursday, 10 June 2010, 9.30, Council Chamber Make a note in your diary! Presentations in French and English: How do hackers break into your computer? Quels sont les enjeux et conséquences des attaques informatiques contre le CERN ? How so criminals steal your money on the Internet? Comment utiliser votre ordinateur de manière sécurisée ? and a quiz: test your knowledge and win one of the many prizes that will be on offer! For more information and to follow the day's events via a live webcast go to: http://cern.ch/SecDay.  

  17. Why National Biomechanics Day?

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeVita, Paul

    2018-04-11

    National Biomechanics Day (NBD) seeks to expand the influence and impact of Biomechanics on our society by expanding the awareness of Biomechanics among young people. NBD will manifest this goal through worldwide, synchronized and coordinated celebrations and demonstrations of all things Biomechanics with high school students. NBD invites all Biomechanists to participate in NBD 2018, http://nationalbiomechanicsday.asbweb.org/. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Viva il GIS Day!

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Redazione Redazione

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Il GIS Day è sponsorizzato oltre che da ESRI, dalla National Geographic Society, dalla Association of American Geographers, dalla UCGIS (University Consortium for Geographic Information Science, dalla United States Geological Survey e dalla Library of Congress. Il tutto nasce nel corso della Geography Awareness Week, terza settimana di novembre che nel 1987 il Presidente degli Stati Uniti Ronald Reagan stabilì dovesse essere dedicata alla diffusione della cultura geografica.

  19. 'EU divertor celebration day'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merola, M.

    2002-01-01

    The meeting 'EU divertor celebration day' organized on 16 January 2002 at Plansee AG, Reutte, Austria was held on the occasion of the completion of manufacturing activities of a complete set of near full-scale prototypes of divertor components including the vertical target, the dome liner and the cassette body. About 30 participants attended the meeting including Dr. Robert Aymar, ITER Director, representatives from EFDA, CEA, ENEA, IPP and others

  20. World water day

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    The symposium on world water day for the year 2005 was held on 22nd March by the Pakistan Engineering congress in collaboration with Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA). Six technical papers by engineers/experts presented on the diverse fields from large dams to drinking water and public hygiene. Paper published in this volume are open for written discussion. (orig./A.B.)

  1. National HIV Testing Day

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2011-06-09

    Dr. Kevin A. Fenton, Director of CDC's National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention, discusses National HIV Testing Day, an annual observance which raises awareness of the importance of knowing one's HIV status and encourages at-risk individuals to get an HIV test.  Created: 6/9/2011 by National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention (NCHHSTP).   Date Released: 6/9/2011.

  2. The effects of the 1996–2012 summer heat events on human mortality in Slovakia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Výberči Dalibor

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The impacts of summer heat events on the mortality of the Slovak population, both in total and for selected population sub-groups, are the foci of this study. This research is the first of its kind, focusing on a given population, and therefore one priority was to create a knowledge base for the issue and to basically evaluate existing conditions for the heat-mortality relationship in Slovakia. This article also aims to fill a void in current research on these issues in Europe. In addition to overall effects, we focused individually on the major historical heat events which occurred in the summers of 2007, 2010 and 2012. During the heat events, a non-negligible negative response in mortality was recorded and fatal effects were more pronounced during particularly strong heat events and periods which lasted for two or more days. In general, females and the elderly were the most sensitive groups in the population and mortality was characterized by several specific effects in individual population groups. The most extreme heat periods were commonly followed by a deficit in mortality, corresponding to a short-term mortality displacement, the pattern of which varied in specific cases. In general, displaced mortality appeared to compensate for a large part of heat-induced excess deaths.

  3. Impacts of Anthropogenic Aerosols on Regional Climate: Extreme Events, Stagnation, and the United States Warming Hole

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mascioli, Nora R.

    Extreme temperatures, heat waves, heavy rainfall events, drought, and extreme air pollution events have adverse effects on human health, infrastructure, agriculture and economies. The frequency, magnitude and duration of these events are expected to change in the future in response to increasing greenhouse gases and decreasing aerosols, but future climate projections are uncertain. A significant portion of this uncertainty arises from uncertainty in the effects of aerosol forcing: to what extent were the effects from greenhouse gases masked by aerosol forcing over the historical observational period, and how much will decreases in aerosol forcing influence regional and global climate over the remainder of the 21st century? The observed frequency and intensity of extreme heat and precipitation events have increased in the U.S. over the latter half of the 20th century. Using aerosol only (AER) and greenhouse gas only (GHG) simulations from 1860 to 2005 in the GFDL CM3 chemistry-climate model, I parse apart the competing influences of aerosols and greenhouse gases on these extreme events. I find that small changes in extremes in the "all forcing" simulations reflect cancellations between the effects of increasing anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases. In AER, extreme high temperatures and the number of days with temperatures above the 90th percentile decline over most of the U.S., while in GHG high temperature extremes increase over most of the U.S. The spatial response patterns in AER and GHG are significantly anti-correlated, suggesting a preferred regional mode of response that is largely independent of the type of forcing. Extreme precipitation over the eastern U.S. decreases in AER, particularly in winter, and increases over the eastern and central U.S. in GHG, particularly in spring. Over the 21 st century under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario, the patterns of extreme temperature and precipitation change associated with greenhouse gas forcing dominate. The

  4. Component Cooling Heat Exchanger Heat Transfer Capability Operability Monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mihalina, M.; Djetelic, N.

    2010-01-01

    .g. using CC Heat Exchanger bypass valves for CC temperature control, variation of plant heat loads, pumps performance, and day-night temperature difference, with lagging effects on heat transfer dynamics). Krsko NPP is continuously monitoring the Component Cooling (CC) Heat Exchanger performance using the on-line process information system (PIS). By defining the mathematical algorithm, it is possible to continuously evaluate the CC Heat Exchanger operability by verifying if the heat transfer rate calculation is in accordance with the heat exchanger design specification sheet requirements. These calculations are limited to summer periods only when the bypass valves are neither throttled nor open.(author).

  5. Sensitivity of Rainfall Extremes Under Warming Climate in Urban India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, H.; Mishra, V.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme rainfall events in urban India halted transportation, damaged infrastructure, and affected human lives. Rainfall extremes are projected to increase under the future climate. We evaluated the relationship (scaling) between rainfall extremes at different temporal resolutions (daily, 3-hourly, and 30 minutes), daily dewpoint temperature (DPT) and daily air temperature at 850 hPa (T850) for 23 urban areas in India. Daily rainfall extremes obtained from Global Surface Summary of Day Data (GSOD) showed positive regression slopes for most of the cities with median of 14%/K for the period of 1979-2013 for DPT and T850, which is higher than Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) rate ( 7%). Moreover, sub-daily rainfall extremes are more sensitive to both DPT and T850. For instance, 3-hourly rainfall extremes obtained from Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM 3B42 V7) showed regression slopes more than 16%/K aginst DPT and T850 for the period of 1998-2015. Half-hourly rainfall extremes from the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals (IMERGE) of Global precipitation mission (GPM) also showed higher sensitivity against changes in DPT and T850. The super scaling of rainfall extremes against changes in DPT and T850 can be attributed to convective nature of precipitation in India. Our results show that urban India may witness non-stationary rainfall extremes, which, in turn will affect stromwater designs and frequency and magniture of urban flooding.

  6. Factors contributing to record-breaking heat waves over the Great Plains during the 1930s Dust Bowl

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowan, T.; Hegerl, G. C.

    2016-12-01

    Record-breaking summer heat waves that plagued contiguous United States in the 1930s emerged during the decade-long "Dust Bowl" drought. Using high-quality daily temperature observations, the Dust Bowl heat wave characteristics for the Great Plains are assessed using metrics that describe variations in heat wave activity and intensity. We also quantify record-breaking heat waves over the pre-industrial period for 22 CMIP5 model multi-century realisations. The most extreme Great Plains heat wave summers in the Dust Bowl decade (e.g. 1931, 1934, 1936) were pre-conditioned by anomalously dry springs, as measured by proxy drought indices. In general, summer heat waves over the Great Plains develop 15-20 days earlier after anomalously dry springs, and are also significantly longer and hotter, indicative of the importance of land surface feedbacks in heat wave intensification. The majority of pre-industrial climate model experiments capture regionally clustered summer heat waves across North America, although the North Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperature patterns associated with the heat waves vary considerably between models. Sea surface temperature patterns may be more important for influencing winter and spring precipitation, thus amplifying summer heat waves during drought periods. The synoptic pattern that commonly appeared during the exceptional Dust Bowl heat waves featured an anomalous broad surface pressure ridge straddling an upper level blocking anticyclone over the western United States. This forced significant subsidence and adiabatic warming over the Great Plains, and triggered anomalous southward warm advection over southern regions, prolonging and amplifying the heat waves over central United States. Importantly, the results show that despite the sparsity of stations in the 1930s, homogeneous observations are crucial in accurately quantifying the Dust Bowl decade heat waves, as opposed to solely relying on atmospheric reanalysis.

  7. Critical care at extremes of temperature: effects on patients, staff and equipment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hindle, Elise M; Henning, J D

    2014-12-01

    Modern travel and military operations have led to a significant increase in the need to provide medical care in extreme climates. Presently, there are few data on what happens to the doctor, their drugs and equipment when exposed to these extremes. A review was undertaken to find out the effects of 'extreme heat or cold' on anaesthesia and critical care; in addition, subject matter experts were contacted directly. Both extreme heat and extreme cold can cause a marked physiological response in a critically ill patient and the doctor treating these patients may also suffer a decrement in both physical and mental functioning. Equipment can malfunction when exposed to extremes of temperature and should ideally be stored and operated in a climatically controlled environment. Many drugs have a narrow range of temperatures in which they remain useable though some have been shown to remain effective if exposed to extremes of temperature for a short period of time. All personnel embarking on an expedition to an extreme temperature zone should be of sufficient physical robustness and ideally should have a period of acclimatisation which may help mitigate against some of the physiological effects of exposure to extreme heat or extreme cold. Expedition planners should aim to provide climatic control for drugs and equipment and should have logistical plans for replenishment of drugs and medical evacuation of casualties. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  8. Are BALQSOs extreme accretors?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, M. J.; Wills, B. J.

    2002-12-01

    Broad Absorption Line (BAL) QSOs are QSOs with massive absorbing outflows up to 0.2c. Two hypothesis have been suggested in the past about the nature of BALQSOs: Every QSO might have BAL outflow with some covering factor. BALQSOs are those which happen to have outflow along our line of sight. BALQSOs have intrinsically different physical properties than non-BALQSOs. Based on BALQSO's optical emission properties and a large set of correlations linking many general QSO emission line and continuum properties, it has been suggested that BALQSOs might accrete at near Eddington limit with abundant of fuel supplies. With new BALQSO Hβ region spectroscopic observation conducted at UKIRT and re-analysis of literature data for low and high redshift non-BALQSOs, We confirm that BALQSOs have extreme Fe II and [O III] emission line properties. Using results derived from the latest QSO Hβ region reverberation mapping, we calculated Eddington ratios (˙ {M}/˙ {M}Edd) for our BAL and non-BALQSOs. The Fe II and [O III] strengths are strongly correlated with Eddington ratios. Those correlations link Eddington ratio to a large set of general QSO properties through the Boroson & Green Eigenvector 1. We find that BALQSOs have Eddington ratios close to 1. However, all high redshift, high luminosity QSOs have rather high Eddington ratios. We argue that this is a side effect from selecting the brightest objects. In fact, our high redshift sample might constitute BALQSO's high Eddington ratio orientation parent population.

  9. Modeling heat stress under different environmental conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carabaño, M J; Logar, B; Bormann, J; Minet, J; Vanrobays, M-L; Díaz, C; Tychon, B; Gengler, N; Hammami, H

    2016-05-01

    Renewed interest in heat stress effects on livestock productivity derives from climate change, which is expected to increase temperatures and the frequency of extreme weather events. This study aimed at evaluating the effect of temperature and humidity on milk production in highly selected dairy cattle populations across 3 European regions differing in climate and production systems to detect differences and similarities that can be used to optimize heat stress (HS) effect modeling. Milk, fat, and protein test day data from official milk recording for 1999 to 2010 in 4 Holstein populations located in the Walloon Region of Belgium (BEL), Luxembourg (LUX), Slovenia (SLO), and southern Spain (SPA) were merged with temperature and humidity data provided by the state meteorological agencies. After merging, the number of test day records/cows per trait ranged from 686,726/49,655 in SLO to 1,982,047/136,746 in BEL. Values for the daily average and maximum temperature-humidity index (THIavg and THImax) ranges for THIavg/THImax were largest in SLO (22-74/28-84) and shortest in SPA (39-76/46-83). Change point techniques were used to determine comfort thresholds, which differed across traits and climatic regions. Milk yield showed an inverted U-shaped pattern of response across the THI scale with a HS threshold around 73 THImax units. For fat and protein, thresholds were lower than for milk yield and were shifted around 6 THI units toward larger values in SPA compared with the other countries. Fat showed lower HS thresholds than protein traits in all countries. The traditional broken line model was compared with quadratic and cubic fits of the pattern of response in production to increasing heat loads. A cubic polynomial model allowing for individual variation in patterns of response and THIavg as heat load measure showed the best statistical features. Higher/lower producing animals showed less/more persistent production (quantity and quality) across the THI scale. The

  10. Impacts of High Resolution Extreme Events on U.S. Energy Demand and CO{sub 2} Emissions in the 21st Century

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diffenbaugh, Noah [Stanford University

    2013-06-21

    Progress is reported in these areas: Validation of temperature and precipitation extremes; Time of emergence of severe heat stress in the United States; Quantifying the effects of temperature extremes on energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions.

  11. Climate change impacts on extreme events in the United States: an uncertainty analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves, droughts and severe precipitation events, have substantial impacts on ecosystems and the economy. However, future climate simulations display large uncertainty in mean changes. As a result, the uncertainty in future changes ...

  12. Interdecadal Change in Extreme Precipitation over South China and Its Mechanism

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    NING Liang; QIAN Yongfu

    2009-01-01

    Based on the daily precipitation data taken from 17 stations over South China during the period of 1961 2003, a sudden change in summer extreme precipitation events over South China in the early 1990s along with the possible mechanism connected with the anomalies of the latent heat flux over the South China Sea and the sensible heat flux over the Indochina peninsula are examined. The results show that both the annual and summer extreme precipitation events have obvious interdecadal variations and have increased significantly since the early 1990s. Moreover, the latent heat flux over the South China Sea and the sensible heat flux over the Indochina peninsula also have obvious interdecadal variations consistent with that of the extreme precipitation, and influence different months' extreme precipitation, respectively. Their effects are achieved by the interdecadal increases of the strengthening convection over South China through the South China Sea Summer Monsoon.

  13. Heat exchanger

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leigh, D.G.

    1976-01-01

    The arrangement described relates particularly to heat exchangers for use in fast reactor power plants, in which heat is extracted from the reactor core by primary liquid metal coolant and is then transferred to secondary liquid metal coolant by means of intermediate heat exchangers. One of the main requirements of such a system, if used in a pool type fast reactor, is that the pressure drop on the primary coolant side must be kept to a minimum consistent with the maintenance of a limited dynamic head in the pool vessel. The intermediate heat exchanger must also be compact enough to be accommodated in the reactor vessel, and the heat exchanger tubes must be available for inspection and the detection and plugging of leaks. If, however, the heat exchanger is located outside the reactor vessel, as in the case of a loop system reactor, a higher pressure drop on the primary coolant side is acceptable, and space restriction is less severe. An object of the arrangement described is to provide a method of heat exchange and a heat exchanger to meet these problems. A further object is to provide a method that ensures that excessive temperature variations are not imposed on welded tube joints by sudden changes in the primary coolant flow path. Full constructional details are given. (U.K.)

  14. Direct Heat

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lienau, P J

    1990-01-01

    Potential resources and applications of earth heat in the form of geothermal energy are large. United States direct uses amount to 2,100 MWt thermal and worldwide 8,850 MWt above a reference temperature of 35 degrees Celsius. Space and district heating are the major direct uses of geothermal energy. Equipment employed in direct use projects is of standard manufacture and includes downhole and circulation pumps, transmission and distribution pipelines, heat exchangers and convectors, heat pumps and chillers. Direct uses of earth heat discussed are space and district heating, greenhouse heating and fish farming, process and industrial applications. The economic feasibility of direct use projects is governed by site specific factors such as location of user and resource, resource quality, system load factor and load density, as well as financing. Examples are presented of district heating in Klamath Falls, and Elko. Further developments of direct uses of geothermal energy will depend on matching user needs to the resource, and improving load factors and load density.

  15. Plasma heating

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilhelm, R.

    1989-01-01

    Successful plasma heating is essential in present fusion experiments, for the demonstration of DpT burn in future devices and finally for the fusion reactor itself. This paper discusses the common heating systems with respect to their present performance and their applicability to future fusion devices. The comparative discussion is oriented to the various function of heating, which are: - plasma heating to fusion-relevant parameters and to ignition in future machines, -non-inductive, steady-pstate current drive, - plasma profile control, -neutral gas breakdown and plasma build-up. In view of these different functions, the potential of neutral beam injection (NBI) and the various schemes of wave heating (ECRH, LH, ICRH and Alven wave heating) is analyzed in more detail. The analysis includes assessments of the present physical and technical state of these heating methods, and makes suggestions for future developments and about outstanding problems. Specific attention is given to the still critical problem of efficient current drive, especially with respect to further extrapolation towards an economically operating tokamak reactor. Remarks on issues such as reliability, maintenance and economy conclude this comparative overview on plasma heating systems. (author). 43 refs.; 13 figs.; 3 tabs

  16. A note on extreme sets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radosław Cymer

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available In decomposition theory, extreme sets have been studied extensively due to its connection to perfect matchings in a graph. In this paper, we first define extreme sets with respect to degree-matchings and next investigate some of their properties. In particular, we prove the generalized Decomposition Theorem and give a characterization for the set of all extreme vertices in a graph.

  17. Likelihood estimators for multivariate extremes

    KAUST Repository

    Huser, Raphaë l; Davison, Anthony C.; Genton, Marc G.

    2015-01-01

    The main approach to inference for multivariate extremes consists in approximating the joint upper tail of the observations by a parametric family arising in the limit for extreme events. The latter may be expressed in terms of componentwise maxima, high threshold exceedances or point processes, yielding different but related asymptotic characterizations and estimators. The present paper clarifies the connections between the main likelihood estimators, and assesses their practical performance. We investigate their ability to estimate the extremal dependence structure and to predict future extremes, using exact calculations and simulation, in the case of the logistic model.

  18. Likelihood estimators for multivariate extremes

    KAUST Repository

    Huser, Raphaël

    2015-11-17

    The main approach to inference for multivariate extremes consists in approximating the joint upper tail of the observations by a parametric family arising in the limit for extreme events. The latter may be expressed in terms of componentwise maxima, high threshold exceedances or point processes, yielding different but related asymptotic characterizations and estimators. The present paper clarifies the connections between the main likelihood estimators, and assesses their practical performance. We investigate their ability to estimate the extremal dependence structure and to predict future extremes, using exact calculations and simulation, in the case of the logistic model.

  19. The probability distribution of extreme precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korolev, V. Yu.; Gorshenin, A. K.

    2017-12-01

    On the basis of the negative binomial distribution of the duration of wet periods calculated per day, an asymptotic model is proposed for distributing the maximum daily rainfall volume during the wet period, having the form of a mixture of Frechet distributions and coinciding with the distribution of the positive degree of a random variable having the Fisher-Snedecor distribution. The method of proving the corresponding result is based on limit theorems for extreme order statistics in samples of a random volume with a mixed Poisson distribution. The adequacy of the models proposed and methods of their statistical analysis is demonstrated by the example of estimating the extreme distribution parameters based on real data.

  20. "A Day Without Immigrants"

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heiskanen, Benita

    2009-01-01

    Abstract This article considers the debates surrounding the "Day Without Immigrants" protests organized in major U.S. cities on 1 May 2006, prompted by H.R. 4437, the Border Protection, Anti-Terrorism, and Illegal Immigration Control Act of 2005, from the multiple perspectives of scholars, pundits...... that the rhetoric used in these discourses pitted various class-based ethnoracial groups against each other not so much to tackle the proposed immigration bill but, rather, to comment on the ramifications of an increasingly multiracial United States. Udgivelsesdato: 01 December 2009...

  1. The women day storm

    OpenAIRE

    Parnowski, Aleksei; Polonska, Anna; Semeniv, Oleg

    2012-01-01

    On behalf of the International Women Day, the Sun gave a hot kiss to our mother Earth in a form of a full halo CME generated by the yesterday's double X-class flare. The resulting geomagnetic storm gives a good opportunity to compare the performance of space weather forecast models operating in near-real-time. We compare the forecasts of most major models and identify some common problems. We also present the results of our own near-real-time forecast models.

  2. CERN hearing day

    CERN Multimedia

    2005-01-01

    1 in 10 people suffer from hearing loss - do you? The Medical Service invites everyone working on the CERN site to participate in the NATIONAL HEARING DAY on: Thursday 10th March 2005 From 9am to 4pm The Infirmary, Blg. 57, Ground Floor We will be offering hearing tests (audiograms), as well as information and advice on hearing loss, tinnitus, etc. Deafness does not just affect the elderly: in Europe, 50% of the hearing-impaired are under the age of 55. Exposure to excessive noise is one of the main reasons for hearing problems but PREVENTION IS POSSIBLE. For example, hearing protection devices can prevent 80% of tinnitus cases.

  3. CERN hearing day

    CERN Multimedia

    2005-01-01

    1 in 10 people suffer from hearing loss - do you? The Medical Service invites everyone working on CERN premises to participate in the National Hearing Day on: Thursday 10th March From 9am to 4pm The Infirmary, Blg. 57, Gr.Fl. We will be offering hearing tests (audiogram); information, advice on hearing loss, tinnitus and more. Deafness does not just affect the elderly: in Europe, 50% the hearing-impaired are under the age of 55. Exposure to excessive noise is one of the main reasons for hearing loss. But PREVENTION IS POSSIBLE AND EFFECTIVE: for example, Hearing protection devices could reduce tinnitus cases by 80%.

  4. CERN hearing day

    CERN Document Server

    2005-01-01

    1 in 10 people suffer from hearing loss - do you? The Medical Service invites everyone working on CERN premises to participate in the National Hearing Day on: Thursday 10th March From 9am to 4pm The Infirmary, Blg. 57, Gr.Fl. We will be offering hearing tests (audiogram); information, advice on hearing loss, tinnitus and more. Deafness does not just affect the elderly: in Europe, 50% the hearing-impaired are under the age of 55. Exposure to excessive noise is one of the main reasons for hearing loss. But prevention is possible and effective: for example, Hearing protection devices could reduce tinnitus cases by 80%.

  5. CERN hearing day

    CERN Multimedia

    2005-01-01

    1 in 10 people suffer from hearing loss ? do you? The Medical Service invites everyone working on the CERN site to participate in the NATIONAL HEARING DAY on: Thursday 10th March 2005 From 9am to 4pm The Infirmary, Blg. 57, Ground Floor We will be offering hearing tests (audiograms), as well as information and advice on hearing loss, tinnitus, etc. Deafness does not just affect the elderly: in Europe, 50% of the hearing-impaired are under the age of 55. Exposure to excessive noise is one of the main reasons for hearing problems but prevention is possible. For example, hearing protection devices can prevent 80% of tinnitus cases.

  6. Hard-hat day

    CERN Multimedia

    2003-01-01

    CERN will be organizing a special information day on Friday, 27th June, designed to promote the wearing of hard hats and ensure that they are worn correctly. A new prevention campaign will also be launched.The event will take place in the hall of the Main Building from 11.30 a.m. to 2.00 p.m., when you will be able to come and try on various models of hard hat, including some of the very latest innovative designs, ask questions and pass on any comments and suggestions.

  7. The Future Days

    OpenAIRE

    Cerezo Rodríguez, Carlos

    2014-01-01

    In this memorandum it will be read all the documentation related to the Final Project Degree of Carlos Cerezo Rodríguez, The Future Days. The objective of this project has been to realise a mini-game (in form of interactive animation in Flash). So that, it will rest prepared for his posterior upload to websites that offer these services. As it will be appreciated in the writing, the process of construction of the project has been made through a phase of planning and preproduction, a phase of ...

  8. Gis Day 2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esri Italia Esri Italia

    2005-10-01

    Full Text Available Si è svolto nelle Marche, ad Urbino, città simbolo del legame tra scienza e Rinascimento, il GIS DAY 2005; l’evento ha avuto il patrocinio di DAMAC – INTERREG SECUR SEA ed il supporto di: Regione Marche - Giunta Regionale, Contea di Zara (Croazia, Centro di Geobiologia - Università di Urbino, Forum delle Città dell’Adriatico e dello Ionio e Adriatic Action Plan 2020 ed ha sviluppato il tema dedicato ad “Un GIS interoperabile e internazionale”.

  9. Further outlooks: extremely uncomfortable; Die weiteren Aussichten: extrem ungemuetlich

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Resenhoeft, T.

    2006-07-01

    Climate is changing extremely in the last decades. Scientists dealing with extreme weather, should not only stare at computer simulations. They have also to turn towards psyche, seriously personal experiences, knowing statistics, relativise supposed sensational reports and last not least collecting more data. (GL)

  10. Heat-related mortality in India: excess all-cause mortality associated with the 2010 Ahmedabad heat wave.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gulrez Shah Azhar

    Full Text Available In the recent past, spells of extreme heat associated with appreciable mortality have been documented in developed countries, including North America and Europe. However, far fewer research reports are available from developing countries or specific cities in South Asia. In May 2010, Ahmedabad, India, faced a heat wave where the temperatures reached a high of 46.8 °C with an apparent increase in mortality. The purpose of this study is to characterize the heat wave impact and assess the associated excess mortality.We conducted an analysis of all-cause mortality associated with a May 2010 heat wave in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India, to determine whether extreme heat leads to excess mortality. Counts of all-cause deaths from May 1-31, 2010 were compared with the mean of counts from temporally matched periods in May 2009 and 2011 to calculate excess mortality. Other analyses included a 7-day moving average, mortality rate ratio analysis, and relationship between daily maximum temperature and daily all-cause death counts over the entire year of 2010, using month-wise correlations.The May 2010 heat wave was associated with significant excess all-cause mortality. 4,462 all-cause deaths occurred, comprising an excess of 1,344 all-cause deaths, an estimated 43.1% increase when compared to the reference period (3,118 deaths. In monthly pair-wise comparisons for 2010, we found high correlations between mortality and daily maximum temperature during the locally hottest "summer" months of April (r = 0.69, p<0.001, May (r = 0.77, p<0.001, and June (r = 0.39, p<0.05. During a period of more intense heat (May 19-25, 2010, mortality rate ratios were 1.76 [95% CI 1.67-1.83, p<0.001] and 2.12 [95% CI 2.03-2.21] applying reference periods (May 12-18, 2010 from various years.The May 2010 heat wave in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India had a substantial effect on all-cause excess mortality, even in this city where hot temperatures prevail through much of April-June.

  11. Assessing Climate Variability using Extreme Rainfall and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user1

    extreme frequency); the average intensity of rainfall from extreme events ... frequency and extreme intensity indices, suggesting that extreme events are more frequent and intense during years with high rainfall. The proportion of total rainfall from ...

  12. Higgs Boson Pizza Day

    CERN Document Server

    Stefania Pandolfi

    2016-01-01

    CERN celebrated the fourth anniversary of the historical Higgs boson announcement with special pizzas.    400 pizzas were served on Higgs pizza day in Restaurant 1 at CERN to celebrate the fourth anniversary of the announcement of the discovery of the Higgs Boson (Image: Maximilien Brice/ CERN) What do the Higgs boson and a pizza have in common? Pierluigi Paolucci, INFN and CMS collaboration member, together with INFN president Fernando Ferroni found out the answer one day in Naples: the pizza in front of them looked exactly like a Higgs boson event display. A special recipe was then created in collaboration with the chef of the historic “Ettore” pizzeria in the St. Lucia area of Naples, and two pizzas were designed to resemble two Higgs boson decay channel event displays. The “Higgs Boson Pizza Day” was held on Monday, 4 July 2016, on the fourth anniversary of the announcement of the discovery of the Higgs boso...

  13. 2015 Barcelona Asteroid Day

    CERN Document Server

    Gritsevich, Maria; Palme, Herbert

    2017-01-01

    This volume is a compilation of the research presented at the International Asteroid Day workshop which was celebrated at Barcelona on June 30th, 2015. The proceedings discuss the beginning of a new era in the study and exploration of the solar system’s minor bodies. International Asteroid Day commemorates the Tunguska event of June 30th, 1908. The workshop’s goal was to promote the importance of dealing proactively with impact hazards from space. Multidisciplinary experts contributed to this discussion by describing the nature of comets and asteroids along with their offspring, meteoroids. New missions to return material samples of asteroids back to Earth such as Osiris-REx and Hayabusa 2, as well as projects like AIM and DART which will test impact deflection techniques for Potentially Hazardous Asteroids encounters were also covered. The proceedings include both an outreach level to popularize impact hazards and a scientific character which covers the latest knowledge on these topics, as well as offeri...

  14. A day to celebrate

    CERN Multimedia

    Laëtitia Pedroso

    2010-01-01

    After several weeks of preparations and hard work on the part of many people, the events to mark International Women's Day at CERN on 8 March were a genuine success. They were followed with great interest by the outside world, judging by the flurry of activity on twitter, various blogs and the media coverage they generated.   Women on shift in the CERN control rooms. Women were overwhelmingly in the majority at the controls of the experiments and accelerators throughout the day, as well as acting as the guides for all official visits. There was no shortage of enthusiasm! "I'm very happy that CERN has supported the project, and I'm especially encouraged by the enthusiastic response from everyone who's taken part", says Pauline Gagnon, a physicist from the Indiana University group and a member of the ATLAS collaboration, who was behind the idea. "I hope that this kind of initiative will help to show that women have a place in science and that young women thinkin...

  15. 5th Optimization Day

    CERN Document Server

    Mees, Alistair; Fisher, Mike; Jennings, Les

    2000-01-01

    'Optimization Day' (OD) has been a series of annual mini-conferences in Australia since 1994. The purpose of this series of events is to gather researchers in optimization and its related areas from Australia and their collaborators, in order to exchange new developments of optimization theories, methods and their applications. The first four OD mini-conferences were held in The Uni­ versity of Ballarat (1994), The University of New South Wales (1995), The University of Melbourne (1996) and Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology (1997), respectively. They were all on the eastern coast of Australia. The fifth mini-conference Optimization Days was held at the Centre for Ap­ plied Dynamics and Optimization (CADO), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Western Australia, Perth, from 29 to 30 June 1998. This is the first time the OD mini-conference has been held at the west­ ern coast of Australia. This fifth OD preceded the International Conference on Optimization: Techniques and Applica...

  16. Heating experiments of JT-60

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-01-01

    In JT-60, after the finish of the first stage Joule experiment, the heating facilities were installed, and the heating experiment was started in August, 1986. As to neutral beam injection, the beam injection experiment at the maximum rating 20 MW carried out, and also as to RF, the injection experiment up to 1.4 MW was carried out in both ion cyclotron and low band hybrid waves. The results worthy of special mention in the heating experiment were the success in the current drive up to 1.7 MA at maximum using low band hybrid waves and the improvement of plasma confinement characteristics obtained by the compound heating of NBI and RF. In this paper, the main results of these heating experiments and their significance are explained. The JT-60 is the testing facilities for attaining the critical plasma condition by additionally heating the plasma which is generated by Joule electric discharge with NBI and RF heatings. The experimental operation cycle of the JT-60 consists of the unit cycle of two weeks, and the number of days in operation is nine days. The temperature of heated plasma rose to 70 million deg C in the 20 MW NBI heating. Hereafter, the improvement of confinement time by increasing the stored energy of plasma is attempted. (Kako, I.)

  17. Refining multi-model projections of temperature extremes by evaluation against land-atmosphere coupling diagnostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sippel, Sebastian; Zscheischler, Jakob; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Orth, Rene; Reichstein, Markus; Vogel, Martha; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2017-05-01

    The Earth's land surface and the atmosphere are strongly interlinked through the exchange of energy and matter. This coupled behaviour causes various land-atmosphere feedbacks, and an insufficient understanding of these feedbacks contributes to uncertain global climate model projections. For example, a crucial role of the land surface in exacerbating summer heat waves in midlatitude regions has been identified empirically for high-impact heat waves, but individual climate models differ widely in their respective representation of land-atmosphere coupling. Here, we compile an ensemble of 54 combinations of observations-based temperature (T) and evapotranspiration (ET) benchmarking datasets and investigate coincidences of T anomalies with ET anomalies as a proxy for land-atmosphere interactions during periods of anomalously warm temperatures. First, we demonstrate that a large fraction of state-of-the-art climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) archive produces systematically too frequent coincidences of high T anomalies with negative ET anomalies in midlatitude regions during the warm season and in several tropical regions year-round. These coincidences (high T, low ET) are closely related to the representation of temperature variability and extremes across the multi-model ensemble. Second, we derive a land-coupling constraint based on the spread of the T-ET datasets and consequently retain only a subset of CMIP5 models that produce a land-coupling behaviour that is compatible with these benchmark estimates. The constrained multi-model simulations exhibit more realistic temperature extremes of reduced magnitude in present climate in regions where models show substantial spread in T-ET coupling, i.e. biases in the model ensemble are consistently reduced. Also the multi-model simulations for the coming decades display decreased absolute temperature extremes in the constrained ensemble. On the other hand, the differences between projected

  18. Refining multi-model projections of temperature extremes by evaluation against land–atmosphere coupling diagnostics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Sippel

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The Earth's land surface and the atmosphere are strongly interlinked through the exchange of energy and matter. This coupled behaviour causes various land–atmosphere feedbacks, and an insufficient understanding of these feedbacks contributes to uncertain global climate model projections. For example, a crucial role of the land surface in exacerbating summer heat waves in midlatitude regions has been identified empirically for high-impact heat waves, but individual climate models differ widely in their respective representation of land–atmosphere coupling. Here, we compile an ensemble of 54 combinations of observations-based temperature (T and evapotranspiration (ET benchmarking datasets and investigate coincidences of T anomalies with ET anomalies as a proxy for land–atmosphere interactions during periods of anomalously warm temperatures. First, we demonstrate that a large fraction of state-of-the-art climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 archive produces systematically too frequent coincidences of high T anomalies with negative ET anomalies in midlatitude regions during the warm season and in several tropical regions year-round. These coincidences (high T, low ET are closely related to the representation of temperature variability and extremes across the multi-model ensemble. Second, we derive a land-coupling constraint based on the spread of the T–ET datasets and consequently retain only a subset of CMIP5 models that produce a land-coupling behaviour that is compatible with these benchmark estimates. The constrained multi-model simulations exhibit more realistic temperature extremes of reduced magnitude in present climate in regions where models show substantial spread in T–ET coupling, i.e. biases in the model ensemble are consistently reduced. Also the multi-model simulations for the coming decades display decreased absolute temperature extremes in the constrained ensemble. On the other hand

  19. Heat waves in the United States: mortality risk during heat waves and effect modification by heat wave characteristics in 43 U.S. communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, G Brooke; Bell, Michelle L

    2011-02-01

    Devastating health effects from recent heat waves, and projected increases in frequency, duration, and severity of heat waves from climate change, highlight the importance of understanding health consequences of heat waves. We analyzed mortality risk for heat waves in 43 U.S. cities (1987-2005) and investigated how effects relate to heat waves' intensity, duration, or timing in season. Heat waves were defined as ≥ 2 days with temperature ≥ 95th percentile for the community for 1 May through 30 September. Heat waves were characterized by their intensity, duration, and timing in season. Within each community, we estimated mortality risk during each heat wave compared with non-heat wave days, controlling for potential confounders. We combined individual heat wave effect estimates using Bayesian hierarchical modeling to generate overall effects at the community, regional, and national levels. We estimated how heat wave mortality effects were modified by heat wave characteristics (intensity, duration, timing in season). Nationally, mortality increased 3.74% [95% posterior interval (PI), 2.29-5.22%] during heat waves compared with non-heat wave days. Heat wave mortality risk increased 2.49% for every 1°F increase in heat wave intensity and 0.38% for every 1-day increase in heat wave duration. Mortality increased 5.04% (95% PI, 3.06-7.06%) during the first heat wave of the summer versus 2.65% (95% PI, 1.14-4.18%) during later heat waves, compared with non-heat wave days. Heat wave mortality impacts and effect modification by heat wave characteristics were more pronounced in the Northeast and Midwest compared with the South. We found higher mortality risk from heat waves that were more intense or longer, or those occurring earlier in summer. These findings have implications for decision makers and researchers estimating health effects from climate change.

  20. Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hansen, Brage B; Isaksen, Ketil; Benestad, Rasmus E; Kohler, Jack; Pedersen, Åshild Ø; Loe, Leif E; Coulson, Stephen J; Larsen, Jan Otto; Varpe, Øystein

    2014-01-01

    One predicted consequence of global warming is an increased frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, or heavy rainfalls. In parts of the Arctic, extreme warm spells and heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) events in winter are already more frequent. How these weather events impact snow-pack and permafrost characteristics is rarely documented empirically, and the implications for wildlife and society are hence far from understood. Here we characterize and document the effects of an extreme warm spell and ROS event that occurred in High Arctic Svalbard in January–February 2012, during the polar night. In this normally cold semi-desert environment, we recorded above-zero temperatures (up to 7 °C) across the entire archipelago and record-breaking precipitation, with up to 98 mm rainfall in one day (return period of >500 years prior to this event) and 272 mm over the two-week long warm spell. These precipitation amounts are equivalent to 25 and 70% respectively of the mean annual total precipitation. The extreme event caused significant increase in permafrost temperatures down to at least 5 m depth, induced slush avalanches with resultant damage to infrastructure, and left a significant ground-ice cover (∼5–20 cm thick basal ice). The ground-ice not only affected inhabitants by closing roads and airports as well as reducing mobility and thereby tourism income, but it also led to high starvation-induced mortality in all monitored populations of the wild reindeer by blocking access to the winter food source. Based on empirical-statistical downscaling of global climate models run under the moderate RCP4.5 emission scenario, we predict strong future warming with average mid-winter temperatures even approaching 0 °C, suggesting increased frequency of ROS. This will have far-reaching implications for Arctic ecosystems and societies through the changes in snow-pack and permafrost properties. (letter)

  1. Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Brage B.; Isaksen, Ketil; Benestad, Rasmus E.; Kohler, Jack; Pedersen, Åshild Ø.; Loe, Leif E.; Coulson, Stephen J.; Larsen, Jan Otto; Varpe, Øystein

    2014-11-01

    One predicted consequence of global warming is an increased frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, or heavy rainfalls. In parts of the Arctic, extreme warm spells and heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) events in winter are already more frequent. How these weather events impact snow-pack and permafrost characteristics is rarely documented empirically, and the implications for wildlife and society are hence far from understood. Here we characterize and document the effects of an extreme warm spell and ROS event that occurred in High Arctic Svalbard in January-February 2012, during the polar night. In this normally cold semi-desert environment, we recorded above-zero temperatures (up to 7 °C) across the entire archipelago and record-breaking precipitation, with up to 98 mm rainfall in one day (return period of >500 years prior to this event) and 272 mm over the two-week long warm spell. These precipitation amounts are equivalent to 25 and 70% respectively of the mean annual total precipitation. The extreme event caused significant increase in permafrost temperatures down to at least 5 m depth, induced slush avalanches with resultant damage to infrastructure, and left a significant ground-ice cover (˜5-20 cm thick basal ice). The ground-ice not only affected inhabitants by closing roads and airports as well as reducing mobility and thereby tourism income, but it also led to high starvation-induced mortality in all monitored populations of the wild reindeer by blocking access to the winter food source. Based on empirical-statistical downscaling of global climate models run under the moderate RCP4.5 emission scenario, we predict strong future warming with average mid-winter temperatures even approaching 0 °C, suggesting increased frequency of ROS. This will have far-reaching implications for Arctic ecosystems and societies through the changes in snow-pack and permafrost properties.

  2. Evaluation of satellite-retrieved extreme precipitation using gauge observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lockhoff, M.; Zolina, O.; Simmer, C.; Schulz, J.

    2012-04-01

    Precipitation extremes have already been intensively studied employing rain gauge datasets. Their main advantage is that they represent a direct measurement with a relatively high temporal coverage. Their main limitation however is their poor spatial coverage and thus a low representativeness in many parts of the world. In contrast, satellites can provide global coverage and there are meanwhile data sets available that are on one hand long enough to be used for extreme value analysis and that have on the other hand the necessary spatial and temporal resolution to capture extremes. However, satellite observations provide only an indirect mean to determine precipitation and there are many potential observational and methodological weaknesses in particular over land surfaces that may constitute doubts concerning their usability for the analysis of precipitation extremes. By comparing basic climatological metrics of precipitation (totals, intensities, number of wet days) as well as respective characteristics of PDFs, absolute and relative extremes of satellite and observational data this paper aims at assessing to which extent satellite products are suitable for analysing extreme precipitation events. In a first step the assessment focuses on Europe taking into consideration various satellite products available, e.g. data sets provided by the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). First results indicate that satellite-based estimates do not only represent the monthly averaged precipitation very similar to rain gauge estimates but they also capture the day-to-day occurrence fairly well. Larger differences can be found though when looking at the corresponding intensities.

  3. Effects of city expansion on heat stress under climate change conditions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Argüeso

    Full Text Available We examine the joint contribution of urban expansion and climate change on heat stress over the Sydney region. A Regional Climate Model was used to downscale present (1990-2009 and future (2040-2059 simulations from a Global Climate Model. The effects of urban surfaces on local temperature and vapor pressure were included. The role of urban expansion in modulating the climate change signal at local scales was investigated using a human heat-stress index combining temperature and vapor pressure. Urban expansion and climate change leads to increased risk of heat-stress conditions in the Sydney region, with substantially more frequent adverse conditions in urban areas. Impacts are particularly obvious in extreme values; daytime heat-stress impacts are more noticeable in the higher percentiles than in the mean values and the impact at night is more obvious in the lower percentiles than in the mean. Urban expansion enhances heat-stress increases due to climate change at night, but partly compensates its effects during the day. These differences are due to a stronger contribution from vapor pressure deficit during the day and from temperature increases during the night induced by urban surfaces. Our results highlight the inappropriateness of assessing human comfort determined using temperature changes alone and point to the likelihood that impacts of climate change assessed using models that lack urban surfaces probably underestimate future changes in terms of human comfort.

  4. Heat pipes

    CERN Document Server

    Dunn, Peter D

    1994-01-01

    It is approximately 10 years since the Third Edition of Heat Pipes was published and the text is now established as the standard work on the subject. This new edition has been extensively updated, with revisions to most chapters. The introduction of new working fluids and extended life test data have been taken into account in chapter 3. A number of new types of heat pipes have become popular, and others have proved less effective. This is reflected in the contents of chapter 5. Heat pipes are employed in a wide range of applications, including electronics cooling, diecasting and injection mo

  5. Heat conduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grigull, U.; Sandner, H.

    1984-01-01

    Included are discussions of rates of heat transfer by conduction, the effects of varying and changing properties, thermal explosions, distributed heat sources, moving heat sources, and non-steady three-dimensional conduction processes. Throughout, the importance of thinking both numerically and symbolically is stressed, as this is essential to the development of the intuitive understanding of numerical values needed for successful designing. Extensive tables of thermophysical properties, including thermal conductivity and diffusivity, are presented. Also included are exact and approximate solutions to many of the problems that arise in practical situations

  6. Predicting extreme rainfall over eastern Asia by using complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He Su-Hong; Gong Yan-Chun; Huang Yan-Hua; Wu Cheng-Guo; Feng Tai-Chen; Gong Zhi-Qiang

    2014-01-01

    A climate network of extreme rainfall over eastern Asia is constructed for the period of 1971–2000, employing the tools of complex networks and a measure of nonlinear correlation called event synchronization (ES). Using this network, we predict the extreme rainfall for several cases without delay and with n-day delay (1 ≤ n ≤ 10). The prediction accuracy can reach 58% without delay, 21% with 1-day delay, and 12% with n-day delay (2 ≤ n ≤ 10). The results reveal that the prediction accuracy is low in years of a weak east Asia summer monsoon (EASM) or 1 year later and high in years of a strong EASM or 1 year later. Furthermore, the prediction accuracy is higher due to the many more links that represent correlations between different grid points and a higher extreme rainfall rate during strong EASM years. (geophysics, astronomy, and astrophysics)

  7. Vulnerability of solar energy infrastructure and output to extreme events: Climate change implications (Conference paper)

    OpenAIRE

    Patt, A.; Pfenninger, S.; Lilliestam, J.

    2010-01-01

    This paper explores the potential vulnerability of solar energy systems to future extreme event risks as a consequence of climate change. We describe the three main technologies likely to be used to harness sunlight -- thermal heating, photovoltaic (PV), and concentrating solar power (CSP) -- and identify critical extreme event vulnerabilities for each one. We then compare these vulnerabilities with assessments of future changes in extreme event risk levels. We do not identify any vulnerabili...

  8. Excessive Heat Events and National Security: Building Resilience based on Early Warning Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vintzileos, A.

    2017-12-01

    Excessive heat events (EHE) affect security of Nations in multiple direct and indirect ways. EHE are the top cause for morbidity/mortality associated to any atmospheric extremes. Higher energy consumption used for cooling can lead to black-outs and social disorder. EHE affect the food supply chain reducing crop yield and increasing the probability of food contamination during delivery and storage. Distribution of goods during EHE can be severely disrupted due to mechanical failure of transportation equipment. EHE during athletic events e.g., marathons, may result to a high number of casualties. Finally, EHE may also affect military planning by e.g. reducing hours of exercise and by altering combat gear. Early warning systems for EHE allow for building resilience. In this paper we first define EHE as at least two consecutive heat days; a heat day is defined as a day with a maximum heat index with probability of occurrence that exceeds a certain threshold. We then use retrospective forecasts performed with a multitude of operational models and show that it is feasible to forecast EHE at forecast lead of week-2 and week-3 over the contiguous United States. We finally introduce an improved definition of EHE based on an intensity index and investigate forecast skill of the predictive system in the tropics and subtropics.

  9. Day of Arts Philanthropy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lunde Jørgensen, Ida

    For the Day of Arts Philanthropy I will reflect on the instrumentalisation of art support in Denmark based on the findings from my thesis work (Jørgensen, 2016) investigating the underlyinglegitimations and institutional logics of two of the most significant foundations supporting visual art......, in Denmark, the private New Carlsberg Foundation and public Danish Arts Foundation.Drawing inspiration from neo-institutional theory (Friedland & Alford, 1991) and French pragmatic sociology (Boltanski & Thévenot, 2006), the thesis identifies the most central logics of legitimationunderlying art support......; the industrial, market, inspired, family, renown, civic, projective, emotional and temporal. The most prominent and consistently invoked instrumentalisations identified are theprofessional (industrial), artistic (inspired) and civic purposes of art support. The thesis shows that the instrumentalisations invoked...

  10. Injector MD Days 2017

    CERN Document Server

    Rumolo, G

    2017-01-01

    The Injector Machine Development (MD) days 2017 were held on 23-24 March, 2017, at CERN with thefollowing main goals:Give a chance to the MD users to present their results and show the relevant progress made in 2016 onseveral fronts.Provide the MD users and the Operation (OP) crews with a general overview on the outcome and theimpact of all ongoing MD activities.Identify the open questions and consequently define - with priorities - a list of machine studies in theinjectors for 2017 (covering the operational beams, LHC Injectors Upgrade, High Luminosity LHC,Physics Beyond Colliders, other projects).Create the opportunity to collect and document the highlights of the 2016 MDs and define the perspectivesfor 2017.Discuss how to make best use of the MD time, in particular let the main MD user express their wishesand see whether/how OP teams can contribute to their fulfilment.

  11. CERN Heart Days

    CERN Multimedia

    2003-01-01

    14 & 15 OCTOBER 2003 The Medical Service and the Fire Brigade invite everyone working at CERN to participate in the above event. INFIRMARY 9 am to 16.30 pm Building 57, ground floor HEALTHY HEART? ♥ Evaluation of personal cardiac risks through the monitoring of: • Blood pressure • Cholesterol and sugar levels • Body Mass Index ... and more ♥ Leaflets, information and advice concerning cardiac issues FIRE BRIGADE 9 to 12am Building 65 FIRST AID COURSES ♥ What to do in a Cardiac Emergency (3 h duration) Places are limited and on reservation only (15 people / day) To book, E-mail the Medical Services on: service.medical@cern.ch

  12. Management of the mangled extremity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Prasarn, Mark L.; Helfet, David L.; Kloen, Peter

    2012-01-01

    The management of a mangled extremity continues to be a matter of debate. With modern advances in trauma resuscitation, microvascular tissue transfer, and fracture fixation, severe traumatic extremity injuries that would historically have been amputated are often salvaged. Even if preserving a

  13. A decade of weather extremes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Coumou, Dim; Rahmstorf, Stefan

    The ostensibly large number of recent extreme weather events has triggered intensive discussions, both in- and outside the scientific community, on whether they are related to global warming. Here, we review the evidence and argue that for some types of extreme - notably heatwaves, but also

  14. Attitude extremity, consensus and diagnosticity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Pligt, J.; Ester, P.; van der Linden, J.

    1983-01-01

    Studied the effects of attitude extremity on perceived consensus and willingness to ascribe trait terms to others with either pro- or antinuclear attitudes. 611 Ss rated their attitudes toward nuclear energy on a 5-point scale. Results show that attitude extremity affected consensus estimates. Trait

  15. The urban heat island dynamics during heat waves: a study of cities in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Leiqiu

    2016-04-01

    The urban heat island (UHI) is a common phenomenon describing that metropolitan areas are usually warmer than their rural surroundings. This effect is compounded by extreme heat events, which are a leading cause of weather-related human mortality in many countries worldwide. However, the spatial and diurnal variability of temperature and humidity in urban and adjacent rural areas during extreme heat events is not well measured and therefore not well understood. The recently developed dataset of near-surface air and dew temperature from MODIS atmospheric profiles and the new method for the UHI quantification--urban heat island curve are used to quantify the urban climatic changes during heat waves in cities of the United States. The enhanced and weakened UHIs are observed in various cities. The causes of UHI changes during heat waves are discussed, including climate region, vegetation type and amount, city geolocation, etc.

  16. Causes of Potential Urban Heat Island Space Using Heat flux Budget Under Urban Canopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwon, Y. J.; Lee, D. K.

    2017-12-01

    Raised concerns about possible contribution from urban heat island to global warming is about 30 percent. Therefore, mitigating urban heat island became one of major issues to solve among urban planners, urban designers, landscape architects, urban affair decision makers and etc. Urban heat island effect on a micro-scale is influenced by factors such as wind, water vapor and solar radiation. Urban heat island effect on a microscale is influenced by factors like wind, water vapor and solar radiation. These microscopic climates are also altered by factors affecting the heat content in space, like SVF and aspect ratio depending on the structural characteristics of various urban canyon components. Indicators of heat mitigation in urban design stage allows us to create a spatial structure considering the heat balance budget. The spatial characteristics affect thermal change by varying heat storage, emitting or absorbing the heat. The research defines characteristics of the space composed of the factors affecting the heat flux change as the potential urban heat island space. Potential urban heat island spaces are that having higher heat flux than periphery space. The study is to know the spatial characteristics that affects the subsequent temperature rise by the heat flux. As a research method, four types of potential heat island space regions were analyzed. I categorized the spatial types by comparing parameters' value of energy balance in day and night: 1) day severe areas, 2) day comfort areas, 3) night severe areas, 4) night comfort areas. I have looked at these four types of potential urban heat island areas from a microscopic perspective and investigated how various forms of heat influences on higher heat flux areas. This research was designed to investigate the heat indicators to be reflected in the design of urban canyon for heat mitigation. As a result, severe areas in daytime have high SVF rate, sensible heat is generated. Day comfort areas have shadow effect

  17. Heating-insensitive scale increase caused by convective precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haerter, Jan; Moseley, Christopher; Berg, Peter

    2017-04-01

    extremes, we conclude that the formation of extreme events is a highly nonlinear process. However, our results suggest that crucial features of convective organization throughout the day may be independent of temperature - with possible implications for large-scale model parameterizations. Yet, the timing of the onset of initial precipitation depends strongly on the temperature boundary conditions, where higher temperatures, or earlier, moderate heating, lead to earlier initiation of convection and hence allow for more time for development and the production of extremes.

  18. District heating

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hansen, L.

    1993-01-01

    The environmental risks and uncertainties of a high-energy future are disturbing and give rise to several reservations concerning the use of fossil fuels. A number of technologies will help to reduce atmospheric pollution. In Denmark special importance is attached to the following: Energy conservation. Efficient energy conversion. Renewable energy sources. District heating, combined production of heat and power. Many agree that district heating (DH), produced by the traditional heat-only plant, and combined heat and power (CHP) have enormous potential when considering thermal efficiency and lowered environmental impacts: The basic technology of each is proven, it would be relatively simple to satisfy a substantial part of the energy demand, and their high efficiencies mean reduced pollution including greenhouse gas emissions. This is especially important in high population density areas - the obviously preferred sites for such energy generation. Compared with individual heating DH can provide a community with an operationally efficient and most often also an economically competitive heat supply. This is particularly true under the circumstances where the DH system is supplied from CHP plants. Their use results in very substantial improvements in overall efficiency. Further environmental improvements arise from the reduced air pollution obtainable in reasonably large CHP plants equipped with flue gas cleaning to remove particles, sulphur dioxide, and nitrogen acids. As a consequence of these considerations, DH plays an important role in fulfilling the space and water heating demand in many countries. This is especially the case in Denmark where this technology is utilised to a very great extent. Indeed, DH is one of the reasons why Denmark has relatively good air quality in the cities. (au)

  19. Extreme weather: Subtropical floods and tropical cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaevitz, Daniel A.

    Extreme weather events have a large effect on society. As such, it is important to understand these events and to project how they may change in a future, warmer climate. The aim of this thesis is to develop a deeper understanding of two types of extreme weather events: subtropical floods and tropical cyclones (TCs). In the subtropics, the latitude is high enough that quasi-geostrophic dynamics are at least qualitatively relevant, while low enough that moisture may be abundant and convection strong. Extratropical extreme precipitation events are usually associated with large-scale flow disturbances, strong ascent, and large latent heat release. In the first part of this thesis, I examine the possible triggering of convection by the large-scale dynamics and investigate the coupling between the two. Specifically two examples of extreme precipitation events in the subtropics are analyzed, the 2010 and 2014 floods of India and Pakistan and the 2015 flood of Texas and Oklahoma. I invert the quasi-geostrophic omega equation to decompose the large-scale vertical motion profile to components due to synoptic forcing and diabatic heating. Additionally, I present model results from within the Column Quasi-Geostrophic framework. A single column model and cloud-revolving model are forced with the large-scale forcings (other than large-scale vertical motion) computed from the quasi-geostrophic omega equation with input data from a reanalysis data set, and the large-scale vertical motion is diagnosed interactively with the simulated convection. It is found that convection was triggered primarily by mechanically forced orographic ascent over the Himalayas during the India/Pakistan flood and by upper-level Potential Vorticity disturbances during the Texas/Oklahoma flood. Furthermore, a climate attribution analysis was conducted for the Texas/Oklahoma flood and it is found that anthropogenic climate change was responsible for a small amount of rainfall during the event but the

  20. Printshop open days

    CERN Multimedia

    Anaïs Schaeffer

    2013-01-01

    With new machines, new services and new opening hours, the CERN Printshop has turned over many new leaves at the start of 2013. Come and find out more from 25 to 27 March at the Printshop open days!   The CERN Printshop’s new 8-metre long black and white printer. The CERN Printshop’s new 8-metre long black-and-white printer is a technical marvel. It can produce 160 pages per minute (it prints on both sides in one pass) and can also staple, punch holes, do thermal binding and make A4 or A5 brochures. The new colour printer is more discreet but no less efficient: it churns out 70 A4 or A3 pages per minute. Once they are printed, colour documents can be inserted into the black and white machine to be hole-punched, made into brochures or bound. They can even be mixed in with black-and-white pages and, as if by magic, come out in the right order! Having recently acquired a state-of-the-art large-format printer, the CERN Printshop can now print posters in A2, A1 or A0 format. ...

  1. Seven remarkable days

    CERN Document Server

    This has been a truly remarkable seven days for CERN. Things have moved so fast that it has sometimes been hard to separate fact from fiction – all the more so since facts have often seemed too good to be true. It’s been a week of many firsts. Monday was the first time we’ve had two captured beams in the LHC. It’s the first time the LHC has functioned as a particle accelerator, boosting particles to the highest beam energy so far achieved at CERN. And it’s been a week in which we’ve seen the highest energy proton-proton collisions ever produced at CERN: our last hadron collider, the SPS was a proton-antiproton collider, a technically simpler machine than the LHC. This week’s successes are all the more remarkable precisely because of the complexity of the LHC. Unlike the SPS collider, it is two accelerators not one, making the job of commissioning nearly twice as difficult. I’d like to express my heartfelt thanks and congra...

  2. Two days of films

    CERN Document Server

    2011-01-01

    The Chinese community at CERN and the CERN CineClub, on the occasion of the Chinese New Year, invite everyone to two days of films Thursday 3 February 2011 at 20:30 - CERN Council Chamber Eat drink man woman Directed by Ang LEE (Taiwan, 1994) 122 min. With Sihung Lung, Yu-Wen Wang, Chien-Lien Wu, Kuei-Mei Yang Senior Master Chef Chu lives in a large house in Taipei with his three unmarried daughters, Jia-Jen, a chemistry teacher converted to Christianity, Jia-Chien, an airline executive, and Jia-Ning, a student who also works in a fast food restaurant. Life in the house revolves around the ritual of an elaborate dinner each Sunday, and the love lives of all the family members. Original version Mandarin with English subtitles Friday 4 February 2011 at 19:30 - CERN Council Chamber Adieu, ma concubine Directed by Chen KAIGE (China / Hong Kong, 1993) 171 min. With Leslie Cheung, Fengyi Zhang, Li Gong "Farewell, My Concubine" is a movie with two parallel, intertwined stories. It is the story of two performers in t...

  3. CERN Diabetes Awareness Days

    CERN Multimedia

    2005-01-01

    Do you have diabetes without knowing it? Following last year's successful campaign, the CERN Infirmary has organised two further diabetes prevention and screening days on 10th & 11th October 2005 from 9am to 4pm (INFIRMARY, Bldg 57, ground floor) open to everyone working on the CERN site who was unable to participate in 2004. Testing of blood pressure, cholesterol and sugar levels, Body Mass Index, etc. Information - documentation - personal and individual advice. Presence of a dietician from 2 p.m. to 4 p.m. In cooperation with the NOVAE, DSR & AVENANCE restaurants Diabetes is reaching epidemic proportions in many countries and, if not diagnosed sufficiently early, can be a major cause of blindness and of heart and kidney disease, etc. Prevention is possible through screening and life-style changes such as improved dietary habits and regular physical exercise. Diabetes is not a serious condition in itself if it is diagnosed and treated early enough but it can have very serious consequences...

  4. CERN diabetes awareness days

    CERN Multimedia

    2005-01-01

    Do you have diabetes without knowing it? Following last year's successful campaign, the CERN Infirmary has organised two further diabetes prevention and screening days on 10th & 11th October 2005 from 9am to 4pm (INFIRMARY, Bldg 57, ground floor) open to everyone working on the CERN site who was unable to participate in 2004. Testing of blood pressure, cholesterol and sugar levels, Body Mass Index, etc. Information - documentation - personal and individual advice. Presence of a dietician from 2 p.m. to 4 p.m. In cooperation with the NOVAE, DSR & AVENANCE restaurants. Diabetes is reaching epidemic proportions in many countries and, if not diagnosed sufficiently early, can be a major cause of blindness, heart and kidney disease, etc. Prevention is possible through screening and life-style changes such as improved dietary habits and regular physical exercise. Diabetes is not a serious condition in itself if diagnosed and treated early enough but it can have very serious consequences if und...

  5. Extreme climate, not extreme weather: the summer of 1816 in Geneva, Switzerland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Auchmann

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available We analyze weather and climate during the "Year without Summer" 1816 using sub-daily data from Geneva, Switzerland, representing one of the climatically most severely affected regions. The record includes twice daily measurements and observations of air temperature, pressure, cloud cover, wind speed, and wind direction as well as daily measurements of precipitation. Comparing 1816 to a contemporary reference period (1799–1821 reveals that the coldness of the summer of 1816 was most prominent in the afternoon, with a shift of the entire distribution function of temperature anomalies by 3–4 °C. Early morning temperature anomalies show a smaller change for the mean, a significant decrease in the variability, and no changes in negative extremes. Analyzing cloudy and cloud-free conditions separately suggests that an increase in the number of cloudy days was to a significant extent responsible for these features. A daily weather type classification based on pressure, pressure tendency, and wind direction shows extremely anomalous frequencies in summer 1816, with only one day (compared to 20 in an average summer classified as high-pressure situation but a tripling of low-pressure situations. The afternoon temperature anomalies expected from only a change in weather types was much stronger negative in summer 1816 than in any other year. For precipitation, our analysis shows that the 80% increase in summer precipitation compared to the reference period can be explained by 80% increase in the frequency of precipitation, while no change could be found neither in the average intensity of precipitation nor in the frequency distribution of extreme precipitation. In all, the analysis shows that the regional circulation and local cloud cover played a dominant role. It also shows that the summer of 1816 was an example of extreme climate, not extreme weather.

  6. AAS 227: Day 4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohler, Susanna

    2016-01-01

    Editors Note:This week were at the 227th AAS Meeting in Kissimmee, FL. Along with several fellow authors from astrobites.com, I will bewritingupdates on selectedevents at themeeting and posting at the end of each day. Follow along here or atastrobites.com, or catch ourlive-tweeted updates from the@astrobites Twitter account. The usual posting schedule for AAS Nova will resumenext week.Welcome to Day 4 of the winter American Astronomical Society (AAS) meeting in Kissimmee! Several of us are attending the conference this year, and we will report highlights from each day here on astrobites. If youd like to see more timely updates during the day, we encourage you to follow @astrobites on twitter or search the #aas227 hashtag.Helen B. Warner Prize: Origins of Structure in Planetary Systems (by Erika Nesvold)Another excellent prize lecture started off todays sessions. The Helen B. Warner Prize is awarded for achievement in observational or theoretical astrophysics by a young researcher (no more than eight years after their Ph.D.). This years Warner Prize was presented to Ruth Murray-Clay of UC Santa Barbara. For her award lecture, Murray-Clay told us all about planetary system architecture: the number, masses, and orbits of planets in a given system.Ruth Murray-Clay [photo from http://web.physics.ucsb.edu/ ~murray/biocv.html]The underlying question motivating this type of research is: How rare is the Solar System? In other words, how likely is it that a given planetary system will have rocky planets close to their star, gas giants farther out, and ice giants at the outer reaches of the system? Answering this question will help us solve the physics problem of how and where planets form, and will also help us on our search for other planets like Earth.The data on exoplanet population from transit and radial velocity observations and from direct imaging tell us that our Solar System is not common (many systems we observe have much more eccentric gas giants), but that doesnt

  7. Spatial dependence of extreme rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radi, Noor Fadhilah Ahmad; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Satari, Siti Zanariah; Azman, Muhammad Az-zuhri

    2017-05-01

    This study aims to model the spatial extreme daily rainfall process using the max-stable model. The max-stable model is used to capture the dependence structure of spatial properties of extreme rainfall. Three models from max-stable are considered namely Smith, Schlather and Brown-Resnick models. The methods are applied on 12 selected rainfall stations in Kelantan, Malaysia. Most of the extreme rainfall data occur during wet season from October to December of 1971 to 2012. This period is chosen to assure the available data is enough to satisfy the assumption of stationarity. The dependence parameters including the range and smoothness, are estimated using composite likelihood approach. Then, the bootstrap approach is applied to generate synthetic extreme rainfall data for all models using the estimated dependence parameters. The goodness of fit between the observed extreme rainfall and the synthetic data is assessed using the composite likelihood information criterion (CLIC). Results show that Schlather model is the best followed by Brown-Resnick and Smith models based on the smallest CLIC's value. Thus, the max-stable model is suitable to be used to model extreme rainfall in Kelantan. The study on spatial dependence in extreme rainfall modelling is important to reduce the uncertainties of the point estimates for the tail index. If the spatial dependency is estimated individually, the uncertainties will be large. Furthermore, in the case of joint return level is of interest, taking into accounts the spatial dependence properties will improve the estimation process.

  8. Astrophysics days and MHD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Falgarone, Edith; Rieutord, Michel; Richard, Denis; Zahn, Jean-Paul; Dauchot, Olivier; Daviaud, Francois; Dubrulle, Berengere; Laval, Jean-Philippe; Noullez, Alain; Bourgoin, Mickael; Odier, Philippe; Pinton, Jean-Francois; Leveque, Emmanuel; Chainais, Pierre; Abry, Patrice; Mordant, Nicolas; Michel, Olivier; Marie, Louis; Chiffaudel, Arnaud; Daviaud, Francois; Petrelis, Francois; Fauve, Stephan; Nore, C.; Brachet, M.-E.; Politano, H.; Pouquet, A.; Leorat, Jacques; Grapin, Roland; Brun, Sacha; Delour, Jean; Arneodo, Alain; Muzy, Jean-Francois; Magnaudet, Jacques; Braza, Marianna; Boree, Jacques; Maurel, S.; Ben, L.; Moreau, J.; Bazile, R.; Charnay, G.; Lewandowski, Roger; Laveder, Dimitri; Bouchet, Freddy; Sommeria, Joel; Le Gal, P.; Eloy, C.; Le Dizes, S.; Schneider, Kai; Farge, Marie; Bottausci, Frederic; Petitjeans, Philippe; Maurel, Agnes; Carlier, Johan; Anselmet, Fabien

    2001-05-01

    This publication gathers extended summaries of presentations proposed during two days on astrophysics and magnetohydrodynamics (MHD). The first session addressed astrophysics and MHD: The cold interstellar medium, a low ionized turbulent plasma; Turbulent convection in stars; Turbulence in differential rotation; Protoplanetary disks and washing machines; gravitational instability and large structures; MHD turbulence in the sodium von Karman flow; Numerical study of the dynamo effect in the Taylor-Green eddy geometry; Solar turbulent convection under the influence of rotation and of the magnetic field. The second session addressed the description of turbulence: Should we give up cascade models to describe the spatial complexity of the velocity field in a developed turbulence?; What do we learn with RDT about the turbulence at the vicinity of a plane surface?; Qualitative explanation of intermittency; Reduced model of Navier-Stokes equations: quickly extinguished energy cascade; Some mathematical properties of turbulent closure models. The third session addressed turbulence and coherent structures: Alfven wave filamentation and formation of coherent structures in dispersive MHD; Statistical mechanics for quasi-geo-strophic turbulence: applications to Jupiter's coherent structures; Elliptic instabilities; Physics and modelling of turbulent detached unsteady flows in aerodynamics and fluid-structure interaction; Intermittency and coherent structures in a washing machine: a wavelet analysis of joint pressure/velocity measurements; CVS filtering of 3D turbulent mixing layer using orthogonal wavelets. The last session addressed experimental methods: Lagrangian velocity measurements; Energy dissipation and instabilities within a locally stretched vortex; Study by laser imagery of the generation and breakage of a compressed eddy flow; Study of coherent structures of turbulent boundary layer at high Reynolds number

  9. International Women's Day speech.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazibwe, S W

    1993-01-01

    The objectives of the International Women's Day are: 1) to celebrate the struggle for women's rights in the economic, social, political, and cultural domain; 2) to reaffirm women's solidarity in the struggle for peace; 3) and to show what women have achieved. In 1988, Uganda's government of the National Resistance Movement created the Ministry of Women in Development. The period 1988-1990 was one of consultations, needs assessment, planning, and recruiting staff for the Ministry. From 1990 to 1993, measurable results have been achieved. The Ministry's gender concerns pertained to the sector policies of the Ministries of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries, Education, Health, Water, Energy, Minerals, and Environment Protection. Under the Umbrella Project for Women in Development, gender sensitization has been achieved with policy makers in ministries, at district level, and in the media. Gender issues have also been incorporated in the National Political School Curriculum. The Ministry has also trained a corps of 73 women trainers from 38 districts. The Ministry, with funding from DANIDA, collected women's views on the constitution through meetings and seminars in all the districts in the country. Recommendations were submitted in a consolidated report to the Constitution Commission. A pilot para-legal scheme is successfully being implemented in Kamuli district. A community-based pool of legal advisors has been developed. Legal matters that affect both women and men are undertaken at the community level. The economic emancipation of women is a crucial part of the Ministry's mandate. In conjunction with NGOs, pilot credit programs are being run in Mukono, Jinja, Mbale, and Kapchorwa districts. Cross-sectoral programs are in close collaboration with the rural water and sanitation program, the Northern Uganda rehabilitation program, and the integrated Basic Education Pilot Project to be implemented in 8 districts.

  10. Tritium conference days

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garnier-Laplace, J.; Lebaron-Jacobs, L.; Sene, M.; Devin, P.; Chretien, V.; Le Guen, B.; Guetat, Ph.; Baglan, N.; Ansoborlo, E.; Boyer, C.; Masson, M.; Bailly-Du-Bois, P.; Jenkinson, St.; Wakeford, R.; Saintigny, Y.; Romeo, P.H.; Thompson, P.; Leterq, D.; Chastagner, F.; Cortes, P.; Philippe, M.; Paquet, F.; Fournier, M.

    2009-01-01

    This document gathers the slides of the available presentations given during this conference day. Twenty presentations out of 21 are assembled in the document and deal with: 1 - tritium in the environment (J. Garnier-Laplace); 2 - status of knowledge about tritium impact on health (L. Lebaron-Jacobs); 3 - tritium, discrete but present everywhere (M. Sene); 4 - management of tritium effluents from Areva NC La Hague site - related impact and monitoring (P. Devin); 5 - tritium effluents and impact in the vicinity of EDF's power plants (V. Chretien and B. Le Guen); 6 - contribution of CEA-Valduc centre monitoring to the knowledge of atmospheric tritiated water transfers to the different compartments of the environment (P. Guetat); 7 - tritium analysis in environment samples: constraints and means (N. Baglan); 8 - organically-linked tritium: the analyst view (E. Ansoborlo); 9 - study of tritium transfers to plants via OBT/HTO air and OBT/HTO free (C. Boyer); 10 - tritium in the British Channel (M. Masson and P. Bailly-Du-Bois); 11 - tritium in British coastal waters (S. Jenkinson); 12 - recent results from epidemiology (R. Wakeford); 13 - effects of tritiated thymidine on hematopoietic stem cells (P.H. Romeo); 14 - tritium management issue in Canada: the point of view from authorities (P. Thompson); 15 - experience feedback of the detritiation process of Valduc centre (D. Leterq); 16 - difficulties linked with tritiated wastes confinement (F. Chastagner); 17 - optimisation of tritium management in the ITER project (P. Cortes); 18 - elements of thought about the management of tritium generated by nuclear facilities (M. Philippe); 19 - CIPR's position about the calculation of doses and risks linked with tritium exposure (F. Paquet); 20 - tritium think tanks (M. Fournier). (J.S.)

  11. Relevance of land forcings and feedbacks in the attribution of climate extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seneviratne, S. I.; Davin, E.; Greve, P.; Gudmundsson, L.; Hauser, M.; Hirschi, M.; Mueller, B.; Orlowsky, B.; Orth, R.

    2014-12-01

    Land forcings and feedbacks play an important role in the climate system, in particular for the occurrence of climate extremes. Recent investigations have for instance highlighted the impacts of soil moisture-climate interactions for the development of droughts and heat waves (e.g. Seneviratne et al. 2012, Mueller and Seneviratne 2012, Seneviratne et al. 2013, Orlowsky and Seneviratne 2013). In addition, forcing from land use and land cover changes through modified albedo or turbulent fluxes can also affect the temperature variability in summer (Davin et al. 2014). These effects are important for better understanding the relationships between climate forcing and regional climate changes, and appear relevant for a recent discrepancy between trends in global mean temperature vs hot extremes over land (Seneviratne et al. 2014). This presentation will provide an overview on the underlying processes and on possible approaches for their consideration in attribution research. References:- Davin, E.L., S.I. Seneviratne, P. Ciais, A. Olioso, T. Wang, 2014: Preferential cooling of hot extremes from cropland albedo management. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., Published ahead of print June 23, 2014.- Mueller, B., and S.I. Seneviratne, 2012: Hot days induced by precipitation deficits at the global scale. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109 (31), 12398-12403, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1204330109.- Orlowsky, B., and S.I. Seneviratne, 2013: Elusive drought: Uncertainty in observed trends and short- and long-term CMIP5 projections. Hydr. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1765-1781, doi:10.5194/hess-17-1765-2013- Seneviratne, S.I., N. Nicholls, et al., 2012: Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field, C.B., et al. (eds.)]. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, pp. 109-230.- Seneviratne, S.I., et al

  12. Day-to-day and within-day variation in urinary iodine excretion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lone Banke; Ovesen, L.; Christiansen, E.

    1999-01-01

    Objective: To examine the day-to-day and within-day variation in urinary iodine excretion and the day-to-day variation in iodine intake. Design: Collection of consecutive 24-h urine samples and casual urine samples over 24 h. Setting: The study population consisted of highly motivated subjects fr...

  13. Channel by Day and Night

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-01-01

    [figure removed for brevity, see original site] Released 17 June 2004 This pair of images shows part of a small channel. Day/Night Infrared Pairs The image pairs presented focus on a single surface feature as seen in both the daytime and nighttime by the infrared THEMIS camera. The nighttime image (right) has been rotated 180 degrees to place north at the top. Infrared image interpretation Daytime: Infrared images taken during the daytime exhibit both the morphological and thermophysical properties of the surface of Mars. Morphologic details are visible due to the effect of sun-facing slopes receiving more energy than antisun-facing slopes. This creates a warm (bright) slope and cool (dark) slope appearance that mimics the light and shadows of a visible wavelength image. Thermophysical properties are seen in that dust heats up more quickly than rocks. Thus dusty areas are bright and rocky areas are dark. Nighttime: Infrared images taken during the nighttime exhibit only the thermophysical properties of the surface of Mars. The effect of sun-facing versus non-sun-facing energy dissipates quickly at night. Thermophysical effects dominate as different surfaces cool at different rates through the nighttime hours. Rocks cool slowly, and are therefore relatively bright at night (remember that rocks are dark during the day). Dust and other fine grained materials cool very quickly and are dark in nighttime infrared images. Image information: IR instrument. Latitude 19.8, Longitude 141.5 East (218.5 West). 100 meter/pixel resolution. Note: this THEMIS visual image has not been radiometrically nor geometrically calibrated for this preliminary release. An empirical correction has been performed to remove instrumental effects. A linear shift has been applied in the cross-track and down-track direction to approximate spacecraft and planetary motion. Fully calibrated and geometrically projected images will be released through the Planetary Data System in accordance with Project

  14. Lomonosov Crater, Day and Night

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-01-01

    [figure removed for brevity, see original site] Released 16 June 2004 This pair of images shows part of Lomonosov Crater. Day/Night Infrared Pairs The image pairs presented focus on a single surface feature as seen in both the daytime and nighttime by the infrared THEMIS camera. The nighttime image (right) has been rotated 180 degrees to place north at the top. Infrared image interpretation Daytime: Infrared images taken during the daytime exhibit both the morphological and thermophysical properties of the surface of Mars. Morphologic details are visible due to the effect of sun-facing slopes receiving more energy than antisun-facing slopes. This creates a warm (bright) slope and cool (dark) slope appearance that mimics the light and shadows of a visible wavelength image. Thermophysical properties are seen in that dust heats up more quickly than rocks. Thus dusty areas are bright and rocky areas are dark. Nighttime: Infrared images taken during the nighttime exhibit only the thermophysical properties of the surface of Mars. The effect of sun-facing versus non-sun-facing energy dissipates quickly at night. Thermophysical effects dominate as different surfaces cool at different rates through the nighttime hours. Rocks cool slowly, and are therefore relatively bright at night (remember that rocks are dark during the day). Dust and other fine grained materials cool very quickly and are dark in nighttime infrared images. Image information: IR instrument. Latitude 64.9, Longitude 350.7 East (9.3 West). 100 meter/pixel resolution. Note: this THEMIS visual image has not been radiometrically nor geometrically calibrated for this preliminary release. An empirical correction has been performed to remove instrumental effects. A linear shift has been applied in the cross-track and down-track direction to approximate spacecraft and planetary motion. Fully calibrated and geometrically projected images will be released through the Planetary Data System in accordance with Project

  15. Review: heat pipe heat exchangers at IROST

    OpenAIRE

    E. Azad

    2012-01-01

    The use of the heat pipe as a component in a heat recovery device has gained worldwide acceptance. Heat pipes are passive, highly reliable and offer high heat transfer rates. This study summarizes the investigation of different types of heat pipe heat recovery systems (HPHRSs). The studies are classified on the basis of the type of the HPHRS. This research is based on 30 years of experience on heat pipe and heat recovery systems that are presented in this study. Copyright , Oxford University ...

  16. Changes in Extreme Events and the Potential Impacts on National Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, J.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme weather and climate events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socio-economic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for changes in the future. Some of the extreme events that have already changed are heat waves, droughts, wildfires, flooding rains, coastal flooding, storm surge, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local intricacies of societal and environmental factors that influences the level of exposure. The goal of this presentation is to discuss the national security implications of changes in extreme weather events and demonstrate how changes in extremes can lead to a host cascading issues. To illustrate this point, this presentation will provide examples of the various pathways that extreme events can increase disease burden and cause economic stress.

  17. Heat pipes and heat pipe exchangers for heat recovery systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vasiliev, L L; Grakovich, L P; Kiselev, V G; Kurustalev, D K; Matveev, Yu

    1984-01-01

    Heat pipes and heat pipe exchangers are of great importance in power engineering as a means of recovering waste heat of industrial enterprises, solar energy, geothermal waters and deep soil. Heat pipes are highly effective heat transfer units for transferring thermal energy over large distance (tens of meters) with low temperature drops. Their heat transfer characteristics and reliable working for more than 10-15 yr permit the design of new systems with higher heat engineering parameters.

  18. Heat-Related Deaths in Hot Cities: Estimates of Human Tolerance to High Temperature Thresholds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sharon L. Harlan

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In this study we characterized the relationship between temperature and mortality in central Arizona desert cities that have an extremely hot climate. Relationships between daily maximum apparent temperature (ATmax and mortality for eight condition-specific causes and all-cause deaths were modeled for all residents and separately for males and females ages <65 and ≥65 during the months May–October for years 2000–2008. The most robust relationship was between ATmax on day of death and mortality from direct exposure to high environmental heat. For this condition-specific cause of death, the heat thresholds in all gender and age groups (ATmax = 90–97 °F; 32.2‒36.1 °C were below local median seasonal temperatures in the study period (ATmax = 99.5 °F; 37.5 °C. Heat threshold was defined as ATmax at which the mortality ratio begins an exponential upward trend. Thresholds were identified in younger and older females for cardiac disease/stroke mortality (ATmax = 106 and 108 °F; 41.1 and 42.2 °C with a one-day lag. Thresholds were also identified for mortality from respiratory diseases in older people (ATmax = 109 °F; 42.8 °C and for all-cause mortality in females (ATmax = 107 °F; 41.7 °C and males <65 years (ATmax = 102 °F; 38.9 °C. Heat-related mortality in a region that has already made some adaptations to predictable periods of extremely high temperatures suggests that more extensive and targeted heat-adaptation plans for climate change are needed in cities worldwide.

  19. Unwanted heat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benka, M.

    2006-01-01

    The number of small heating plants using biomass is growing. According to TREND's information, Hrinovska energeticka, is the only one that controls the whole supplier chain in cooperation with its parent company in Bratislava. Starting with the collection and processing of wood chips by burning, heat production and heat distribution to the end user. This gives the company better control over costs and consequently its own prices. Last year, the engineering company, Hrinovske storjarne, decided to focus only on its core business and sold its heating plant, Hrinovske tepelne hospodarstvo, to Intech Slovakia and changed the company name to Hrinovska energeticka. Local companies and inhabitants were concerned that the new owner would increase prices. But the company publicly declared and kept promises that the heat price for households would remain at 500 Slovak crowns/gigajoule (13.33 EUR/gigajoule ), one of the lowest prices in Slovakia. This year the prices increased slightly to 570 Slovak crowns (15.2 EUR). 'We needed - even at the cost of lower profit - to satisfy our customers so that we would not lose them. We used this time for transition to biomass. This will allow us to freeze our prices in the coming years,' explained the statutory representative of the company, Ivan Dudak. (authors)

  20. Heat Pipes

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-01-01

    Bobs Candies, Inc. produces some 24 million pounds of candy a year, much of it 'Christmas candy.' To meet Christmas demand, it must produce year-round. Thousands of cases of candy must be stored a good part of the year in two huge warehouses. The candy is very sensitive to temperature. The warehouses must be maintained at temperatures of 78-80 degrees Fahrenheit with relative humidities of 38- 42 percent. Such precise climate control of enormous buildings can be very expensive. In 1985, energy costs for the single warehouse ran to more than 57,000 for the year. NASA and the Florida Solar Energy Center (FSEC) were adapting heat pipe technology to control humidity in building environments. The heat pipes handle the jobs of precooling and reheating without using energy. The company contacted a FSEC systems engineer and from that contact eventually emerged a cooperative test project to install a heat pipe system at Bobs' warehouses, operate it for a period of time to determine accurately the cost benefits, and gather data applicable to development of future heat pipe systems. Installation was completed in mid-1987 and data collection is still in progress. In 1989, total energy cost for two warehouses, with the heat pipes complementing the air conditioning system was 28,706, and that figures out to a cost reduction.

  1. Historical deforestation locally increased the intensity of hot days in northern mid-latitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lejeune, Quentin; Davin, Edouard L.; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Winckler, Johannes; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2018-05-01

    The effects of past land-cover changes on climate are disputed1-3. Previous modelling studies have generally concluded that the biogeophysical effects of historical deforestation led to an annual mean cooling in the northern mid-latitudes3,4, in line with the albedo-induced negative radiative forcing from land-cover changes since pre-industrial time reported in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report5. However, further observational and modelling studies have highlighted strong seasonal and diurnal contrasts in the temperature response to deforestation6-10. Here, we show that historical deforestation has led to a substantial local warming of hot days over the northern mid-latitudes—a finding that contrasts with most previous model results11,12. Based on observation-constrained state-of-the-art climate-model experiments, we estimate that moderate reductions in tree cover in these regions have contributed at least one-third of the local present-day warming of the hottest day of the year since pre-industrial time, and were responsible for most of this warming before 1980. These results emphasize that land-cover changes need to be considered when studying past and future changes in heat extremes, and highlight a potentially overlooked co-benefit of forest-based carbon mitigation through local biogeophysical mechanisms.

  2. Statistical Model of Extreme Shear

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Gunner Chr.; Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose

    2004-01-01

    In order to continue cost-optimisation of modern large wind turbines, it is important to continously increase the knowledge on wind field parameters relevant to design loads. This paper presents a general statistical model that offers site-specific prediction of the probability density function...... by a model that, on a statistically consistent basis, describe the most likely spatial shape of an extreme wind shear event. Predictions from the model have been compared with results from an extreme value data analysis, based on a large number of high-sampled full-scale time series measurements...... are consistent, given the inevitabel uncertainties associated with model as well as with the extreme value data analysis. Keywords: Statistical model, extreme wind conditions, statistical analysis, turbulence, wind loading, statistical analysis, turbulence, wind loading, wind shear, wind turbines....

  3. Racial Extremism in the Army

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hudson, Walter M

    1998-01-01

    ... modem phenomenon of "skinheads." I then discuss the history of white supremacist extremism in the Army, culminating in the December, 1995 murders of two black civilians by soldiers assigned to the 82d Airborne Division at Fort Bragg, North Carolina...

  4. Heat and Humidity in the City: Neighborhood Heat Index Variability in a Mid-Sized City in the Southeastern United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alisa L. Hass

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Daily weather conditions for an entire city are usually represented by a single weather station, often located at a nearby airport. This resolution of atmospheric data fails to recognize the microscale climatic variability associated with land use decisions across and within urban neighborhoods. This study uses heat index, a measure of the combined effects of temperature and humidity, to assess the variability of heat exposure from ten weather stations across four urban neighborhoods and two control locations (downtown and in a nearby nature center in Knoxville, Tennessee, USA. Results suggest that trees may negate a portion of excess urban heat, but are also associated with greater humidity. As a result, the heat index of locations with more trees is significantly higher than downtown and areas with fewer trees. Trees may also reduce heat stress by shading individuals from incoming radiation, though this is not considered in this study. Greater amounts of impervious surfaces correspond with reduced evapotranspiration and greater runoff, in terms of overall mass balance, leading to a higher temperature, but lower relative humidity. Heat index and relative humidity were found to significantly vary between locations with different tree cover and neighborhood characteristics for the full study time period as well as for the top 10% of heat index days. This work demonstrates the need for high-resolution climate data and the use of additional measures beyond temperature to understand urban neighborhood exposure to extreme heat, and expresses the importance of considering vulnerability differences among residents when analyzing neighborhood-scale impacts.

  5. The NASA Energy and Water Cycle Extreme (NEWSE) Integration Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    House, P. R.; Lapenta, W.; Schiffer, R.

    2008-01-01

    Skillful predictions of water and energy cycle extremes (flood and drought) are elusive. To better understand the mechanisms responsible for water and energy extremes, and to make decisive progress in predicting these extremes, the collaborative NASA Energy and Water cycle Extremes (NEWSE) Integration Project, is studying these extremes in the U.S. Southern Great Plains (SGP) during 2006-2007, including their relationships with continental and global scale processes, and assessment of their predictability on multiple space and time scales. It is our hypothesis that an integrative analysis of observed extremes which reflects the current understanding of the role of SST and soil moisture variability influences on atmospheric heating and forcing of planetary waves, incorporating recently available global and regional hydro- meteorological datasets (i.e., precipitation, water vapor, clouds, etc.) in conjunction with advances in data assimilation, can lead to new insights into the factors that lead to persistent drought and flooding. We will show initial results of this project, whose goals are to provide an improved definition, attribution and prediction on sub-seasonal to interannual time scales, improved understanding of the mechanisms of decadal drought and its predictability, including the impacts of SST variability and deep soil moisture variability, and improved monitoring/attributions, with transition to applications; a bridging of the gap between hydrological forecasts and stakeholders (utilization of probabilistic forecasts, education, forecast interpretation for different sectors, assessment of uncertainties for different sectors, etc.).

  6. Evaluation of extreme temperature events in northern Spain based on process control charts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villeta, M.; Valencia, J. L.; Saá, A.; Tarquis, A. M.

    2018-02-01

    Extreme climate events have recently attracted the attention of a growing number of researchers because these events impose a large cost on agriculture and associated insurance planning. This study focuses on extreme temperature events and proposes a new method for their evaluation based on statistical process control tools, which are unusual in climate studies. A series of minimum and maximum daily temperatures for 12 geographical areas of a Spanish region between 1931 and 2009 were evaluated by applying statistical process control charts to statistically test whether evidence existed for an increase or a decrease of extreme temperature events. Specification limits were determined for each geographical area and used to define four types of extreme anomalies: lower and upper extremes for the minimum and maximum anomalies. A new binomial Markov extended process that considers the autocorrelation between extreme temperature events was generated for each geographical area and extreme anomaly type to establish the attribute control charts for the annual fraction of extreme days and to monitor the occurrence of annual extreme days. This method was used to assess the significance of changes and trends of extreme temperature events in the analysed region. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of an attribute control chart for evaluating extreme temperature events. For example, the evaluation of extreme maximum temperature events using the proposed statistical process control charts was consistent with the evidence of an increase in maximum temperatures during the last decades of the last century.

  7. Legacies from extreme drought increase ecosystem sensitivity to future extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, M. D.; Knapp, A.; Hoover, D. L.; Avolio, M. L.; Felton, A. J.; Wilcox, K. R.

    2016-12-01

    Climate extremes, such as drought, are increasing in frequency and intensity, and the ecological consequences of these extreme events can be substantial and widespread. Although there is still much to be learned about how ecosystems will respond to an intensification of drought, even less is known about the factors that determine post-drought recovery of ecosystem function. Such knowledge is particularly important because post-drought recovery periods can be protracted depending on the extent to which key plant populations, community structure and biogeochemical processes are affected. These drought legacies may alter ecosystem function for many years post-drought and may impact future sensitivity to climate extremes. We experimentally imposed two extreme growing season droughts in a central US grassland to assess the impacts of repeated droughts on ecosystem resistance (response) and resilience (recovery). We found that this grassland was not resistant to the first extreme drought due to reduced productivity and differential sensitivity of the co-dominant C4 grass (Andropogon gerardii) and C3 forb (Solidago canadensis) species. This differential sensitivity led to a reordering of species abundances within the plant community. Yet, despite this large shift in plant community composition, which persisted post-drought, the grassland was highly resilient post-drought, due to increased abundance of the dominant C4 grass. Because of this shift to increased C4 grass dominance, we expected that previously-droughted grassland would be more resistant to a second extreme drought. However, contrary to these expectations, previously droughted grassland was more sensitive to drought than grassland that had not experienced drought. Thus, our result suggest that legacies of drought (shift in community composition) may increase ecosystem sensitivity to future extreme events.

  8. 2016 SPD: Day 3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohler, Susanna

    2016-06-01

    last the longest 2 minutes and 40 seconds is the small town of Hopkinsville, KY. WKU is located a little over an hour away, and both locations are prepared for a large influx of people on eclipse day!Partial solar eclipse as viewed by the space-based Solar Dynamics Observatory. [NASA/SDO]WKU is located just off the centerline of eclipse path, which has some advantages: this provides better viewing of some of the chromospheric features of the Sun during the eclipse, like priminences and solar loops. WKU is setting up a variety of educational and public outreach activities at their football stadium and the WKU farm, and they encourage you to come visit for the eclipse!In addition, they are participating in a nationwide experiment called Citizen CATE, short for the Continental American Telescopic Eclipse. This project will use 60 telescopes spanning the 2500 mile path of totality to record continuous data of the eclipse as it travels across the US. The result will be data of a remarkable 90 minutes of totality, revealing the activity of the solar corona and providing an extended view of the eclipse as has never been seen before.Science During the EclipseNext up was Shadia Habbal (University of Hawaii), who is a co-leader of the AAS 2017 Eclipse Task Force. In addition to her education and outreach efforts associated with the eclipse, however, Habbal is a solar eclipse researcher. She and her collaborators are known as the Solar Wind Sherpas, due to the fact that they hand-carry their science equipment around the world for solar eclipses!Solar corona during a 2008 eclipse, with color overlay indicating emission from highly ionized iron lines. [Habbal et al. 2010]The primary science done during solar eclipses is the study of the solar corona, the region that extends from the solar surface out to several solar radii. This region is too faint to observe normally, but when the light from the Suns disk is blocked out, we can examine it.Unfortunately, the space telescopes that

  9. Monopole heat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turner, M.S.

    1983-01-01

    Upper bounds on the flux of monopoles incident on the Earth with velocity -5 c(10 16 GeV m -1 ) and on the flux of monopoles incident on Jupiter with velocity -3 c(10 16 GeV m -1 ), are derived. Monopoles moving this slowly lose sufficient energy to be stopped, and then catalyse nucleon decay, releasing heat. The limits are obtained by requiring the rate of energy release from nucleon decay to be less than the measured amount of heat flowing out from the surface of the planet. (U.K.)

  10. Heat exchanger

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drury, C.R.

    1988-01-01

    A heat exchanger having primary and secondary conduits in heat-exchanging relationship is described comprising: at least one serpentine tube having parallel sections connected by reverse bends, the serpentine tube constituting one of the conduits; a group of open-ended tubes disposed adjacent to the parallel sections, the open-ended tubes constituting the other of the conduits, and forming a continuous mass of contacting tubes extending between and surrounding the serpentine tube sections; and means securing the mass of tubes together to form a predetermined cross-section of the entirety of the mass of open-ended tubes and tube sections

  11. Heat Convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiji, Latif M.

    Professor Jiji's broad teaching experience lead him to select the topics for this book to provide a firm foundation for convection heat transfer with emphasis on fundamentals, physical phenomena, and mathematical modelling of a wide range of engineering applications. Reflecting recent developments, this textbook is the first to include an introduction to the challenging topic of microchannels. The strong pedagogic potential of Heat Convection is enhanced by the follow ing ancillary materials: (1) Power Point lectures, (2) Problem Solutions, (3) Homework Facilitator, and, (4) Summary of Sections and Chapters.

  12. Climate Extreme Events over Northern Eurasia in Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bulygina, O.; Korshunova, N. N.; Razuvaev, V. N.; Groisman, P. Y.

    2014-12-01

    During the period of widespread instrumental observations in Northern Eurasia, the annual surface air temperature has increased by 1.5°C. Close to the north in the Arctic Ocean, the late summer sea ice extent has decreased by 40% providing a near-infinite source of water vapor for the dry Arctic atmosphere in the early cold season months. The contemporary sea ice changes are especially visible in the Eastern Hemisphere All these factors affect the change extreme events. Daily and sub-daily data of 940 stations to analyze variations in the space time distribution of extreme temperatures, precipitation, and wind over Russia were used. Changing in number of days with thaw over Russia was described. The total seasonal numbers of days, when daily surface air temperatures (wind, precipitation) were found to be above (below) selected thresholds, were used as indices of climate extremes. Changing in difference between maximum and minimum temperature (DTR) may produce a variety of effects on biological systems. All values falling within the intervals ranged from the lowest percentile to the 5th percentile and from the 95th percentile to the highest percentile for the time period of interest were considered as daily extremes. The number of days, N, when daily temperatures (wind, precipitation, DTR) were within the above mentioned intervals, was determined for the seasons of each year. Linear trends in the number of days were calculated for each station and for quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. Regional analysis of extreme events was carried out using quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. Maps (climatology, trends) are presented mostly for visualization purposes. Differences in regional characteristics of extreme events are accounted for over a large extent of the Russian territory and variety of its physical and geographical conditions. The number of days with maximum temperatures higher than the 95% percentile has increased in most of Russia and decreased in Siberia in

  13. Methodology of Day-To-Day Ship Costs Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milojka Počuča

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a methodology of assessing the day-to-day fixed costs of maritime cargo ships. The authoress refersthe reader to factors that affect the amount affixed daily costsand the day-to-day voyage costs of ships. In the last chapter thepaper presents an estimation of the average daily fixed costsand day-to-day voyage costs of ships per type and size for theyear 2003. Besides particular explanations, the reader is refe"ed to data bases that authentically impart data on the structureof maritime fleets and their technical characteristics, aswell as databases on prices and costs in maritime transport.

  14. Day-to-day changes in ionospheric electron content

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tyagi, T.R.

    1978-01-01

    Large day-to-day variations have been observed in the ionospheric electron content or the so-called Faraday content derived from ATS-6 measurements at Gauhati (26.15 deg N, 91.75 deg E) for the period November 1975 to July 1976. The changes occur in the form of single-day abnormality, alternate day-to-day fluctuations and long-term periodic fluctuations with a periodicity of about 45 days. In all the cases the fluctuations are as large as plus or minus 40% from the average level. These changes are not correlated with solar or magnetic activity

  15. Sea water desalination utilizing waste heat by low temperature evaporation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raha, A.; Srivastava, A.; Rao, I.S.; Majumdar, M.; Srivastava, V.K.; Tewari, P.K.

    2007-01-01

    Economics of a process is controlled by management of energy and resources. Fresh water has become most valued resource in industries. Desalination is a process by which fresh water resource is generated from sea water or brackish water, but it is an energy intensive process. The energy cost contributes around 25-40% to the total cost of the desalted water. Utilization of waste heat from industrial streams is one of the ecofriendly ways to produce low cost desalted water. Keeping this in mind Low Temperature Evaporation (LTE) desalination technology utilizing low quality waste heat in the form of hot water (as low as 50 deg C) or low pressure steam (0.13 bar) has been developed for offshore and land based applications to produce high purity water (conductivity < 2μS/cm) from sea water. The probability of the scale formation is practically eliminated by operating it at low temperature and controlling the brine concentration. It also does not require elaborate chemical pretreatment of sea water except chlorination, so it has no environmental impact. LTE technology has found major applications in nuclear reactors where large quantity of low quality waste heat is available to produce high quality desalted water for make up water requirement replacing conventional ion exchange process. Successful continuous operation of 30 Te/day LTE desalination plant utilizing waste heat from nuclear research reactor has demonstrated the safety, reliability, extreme plant availability and economics of nuclear desalination by LTE technology. It is also proposed to utilize waste heat from Main Heat Transport (MHT) purification circuit of Advanced Heavy Water Reactor (AHWR) to produce about 250 Te/ day high quality desalinated water by Low Temperature Evaporation (LTE) process for the reactor make up and plant utilization. Recently we have commissioned a 50 Te/day 2-effect low temperature desalination plant with cooling tower where the specific energy and cooling water requirement are

  16. Quantifying enhancement in aerosol radiative forcing during ‘extreme aerosol days’ in summer at Delhi National Capital Region, India

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumar, Sumant [School of Environmental Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi 110067 (India); Dey, Sagnik [Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, IIT Delhi, New Delhi 110016 (India); Srivastava, Arun [School of Environmental Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi 110067 (India)

    2016-04-15

    Changes in aerosol characteristics (spectral aerosol optical depth, AOD and composition) are examined during the transition from ‘relatively clean’ to ‘extreme’ aerosol days in the summer of 2012 at Delhi National Capital Region (NCR), India. AOD smaller than 0.54 (i.e. 12-year mean AOD − 1σ) represents ‘relatively clean’ days in Delhi during the summer. ‘Extreme’ days are defined by the condition when AOD{sub 0.5} exceeds 12-year mean AOD + 1 standard deviation (σ). Mean (± 1σ) AOD increases to 1.2 ± 0.12 along with a decrease of Angstrom Exponent from 0.54 ± 0.09 to 0.22 ± 0.12 during the ‘extreme’ days. Aerosol composition is inferred by fixing the number concentrations of various individual species through iterative tweaking when simulated (following Mie theory) AOD spectrum matches with the measured one. Contribution of coarse mode dust to aerosol mass increased from 76.8% (relatively clean) to 96.8% (extreme events), while the corresponding contributions to AOD{sub 0.5} increased from 35.0% to 70.8%. Spectrally increasing single scattering albedo (SSA) and CALIPSO aerosol sub-type information support the dominant presence of dust during the ‘extreme’ aerosol days. Aerosol direct radiative forcing (ADRF) at the top-of-the-atmosphere increases from 21.2 W m{sup −2} (relatively clean) to 56.6 W m{sup −2} (extreme), while the corresponding change in surface ADRF is from − 99.5 W m{sup −2} to − 153.5 W m{sup −2}. Coarse mode dust contributes 60.3% of the observed surface ADRF during the ‘extreme’ days. On the contrary, 0.4% mass fraction of black carbon (BC) translates into 13.1% contribution to AOD{sub 0.5} and 33.5% to surface ADRF during the ‘extreme’ days. The atmospheric heating rate increased by 75.1% from 1.7 K/day to 2.96 K/day during the ‘extreme’ days. - Graphical abstract: Deviation (in %) of aerosol properties from ‘relatively clean’ days to ‘extreme’ aerosol days. - Highlights:

  17. Heat flow and heat generation in greenstone belts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drury, M. J.

    1986-01-01

    Heat flow has been measured in Precambrian shields in both greenstone belts and crystalline terrains. Values are generally low, reflecting the great age and tectonic stability of the shields; they range typically between 30 and 50 mW/sq m, although extreme values of 18 and 79 mW/sq m have been reported. For large areas of the Earth's surface that are assumed to have been subjected to a common thermotectonic event, plots of heat flow against heat generation appear to be linear, although there may be considerable scatter in the data. The relationship is expressed as: Q = Q sub o + D A sub o in which Q is the observed heat flow, A sub o is the measured heat generation at the surface, Q sub o is the reduced heat flow from the lower crust and mantle, and D, which has the dimension of length, represents a scale depth for the distribution of radiogenic elements. Most authors have not used data from greenstone belts in attempting to define the relationship within shields, considering them unrepresentative and preferring to use data from relatively homogeneous crystalline rocks. A discussion follows.

  18. Ecosystem services and urban heat riskscape moderation: water, green spaces, and social inequality in Phoenix, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenerette, G Darrel; Harlan, Sharon L; Stefanov, William L; Martin, Chris A

    2011-10-01

    Urban ecosystems are subjected to high temperatures--extreme heat events, chronically hot weather, or both-through interactions between local and global climate processes. Urban vegetation may provide a cooling ecosystem service, although many knowledge gaps exist in the biophysical and social dynamics of using this service to reduce climate extremes. To better understand patterns of urban vegetated cooling, the potential water requirements to supply these services, and differential access to these services between residential neighborhoods, we evaluated three decades (1970-2000) of land surface characteristics and residential segregation by income in the Phoenix, Arizona, USA metropolitan region. We developed an ecosystem service trade-offs approach to assess the urban heat riskscape, defined as the spatial variation in risk exposure and potential human vulnerability to extreme heat. In this region, vegetation provided nearly a 25 degrees C surface cooling compared to bare soil on low-humidity summer days; the magnitude of this service was strongly coupled to air temperature and vapor pressure deficits. To estimate the water loss associated with land-surface cooling, we applied a surface energy balance model. Our initial estimates suggest 2.7 mm/d of water may be used in supplying cooling ecosystem services in the Phoenix region on a summer day. The availability and corresponding resource use requirements of these ecosystem services had a strongly positive relationship with neighborhood income in the year 2000. However, economic stratification in access to services is a recent development: no vegetation-income relationship was observed in 1970, and a clear trend of increasing correlation was evident through 2000. To alleviate neighborhood inequality in risks from extreme heat through increased vegetation and evaporative cooling, large increases in regional water use would be required. Together, these results suggest the need for a systems evaluation of the

  19. Towards convective heat transfer enhancement: surface modification, characterization and measurement techniques

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Taha, T.J.; Thakur, D.B.; van der Meer, Theodorus H.

    2012-01-01

    In this work, heat transfer surface modification and heat transfer measurement technique is developed. Heat transfer investigation was aimed to study the effect of carbon nano fibers (extremely high thermal conductive material) on the enhancement level in heat transfer. Synthesis of these carbon

  20. Renewable Heating And Cooling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renewable heating and cooling is a set of alternative resources and technologies that can be used in place of conventional heating and cooling technologies for common applications such as water heating, space heating, space cooling and process heat.

  1. Virtual Reality Training for Upper Extremity in Subacute Stroke (VIRTUES)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brunner, Iris; Skouen, Jan Sture; Hofstad, Håkon

    2017-01-01

    Objective: To compare the effectiveness of upper extremity virtual reality rehabilitation training (VR) to time-matched conventional training (CT) in the subacute phase after stroke. Methods: In this randomized, controlled, single-blind phase III multicenter trial, 120 participants with upper...... extremity motor impairment within 12 weeks after stroke were consecutively included at 5 rehabilitation institutions. Participants were randomized to either VR or CT as an adjunct to standard rehabilitation and stratified according to mild to moderate or severe hand paresis, defined as $20 degrees wrist...... were assessed at baseline, after intervention, and at the 3-month follow-up. Results: Mean time from stroke onset for the VR group was 35 (SD 21) days and for the CT group was 34 (SD 19) days. There were no between-group differences for any of the outcome measures. Improvement of upper extremity motor...

  2. Heat exchanger

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolowodiuk, Walter

    1976-01-06

    A heat exchanger of the straight tube type in which different rates of thermal expansion between the straight tubes and the supply pipes furnishing fluid to those tubes do not result in tube failures. The supply pipes each contain a section which is of helical configuration.

  3. Heat exchangers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1975-01-01

    The tubes of a heat exchanger tube bank have a portion thereof formed in the shape of a helix, of effective radius equal to the tube radius and the space between two adjacent tubes, to tangentially contact the straight sections of the tubes immediately adjacent thereto and thereby provide support, maintain the spacing and account for differential thermal expansion thereof

  4. Heat exchanger

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harada, F; Yanagida, T; Fujie, K; Futawatari, H

    1975-04-30

    The purpose of this construction is the improvement of heat transfer in finned tube heat exchangers, and therefore the improvement of its efficiency or its output per unit volume. This is achieved by preventing the formation of flow boundary layers in gaseous fluid. This effect always occurs on flow of smooth adjacent laminae, and especially if these have pipes carrying liquid passing through them; it worsens the heat transfer of such a boundary layer considerably compared to that in the turbulent range. The fins, which have several rows of heat exchange tubes passing through them, are fixed at a small spacing on theses tubes. The fins have slots cut in them by pressing or punching, where the pressed-out material remains as a web, which runs parallel to the level of the fin and at a small distance from it. These webs and slots are arranged radially around every tube hole, e.g. 6 in number. For a suitable small tube spacing, two adjacent tubes opposite each other have one common slot. Many variants of such slot arrangements are illustrated.

  5. Heat exchanger

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wolowodiuk, W.

    1976-01-01

    A heat exchanger of the straight tube type is described in which different rates of thermal expansion between the straight tubes and the supply pipes furnishing fluid to those tubes do not result in tube failures. The supply pipes each contain a section which is of helical configuration

  6. Stellar by Day, Planetary by Night: Atmospheres of Ultra-Hot Jupiters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hensley, Kerry

    2018-06-01

    Move over, hot Jupiters theres an even stranger kind of giant planet in the universe! Ultra-hot Jupiters are so strongly irradiated that the molecules in their atmospheres split apart. What does this mean for heat transport on these planets?Atmospheres of Exotic PlanetsA diagram showing the orbit of an ultra-hot Jupiter and the longitudes at which dissociation and recombination occur. [Bell Cowan 2018]Similar to hot Jupiters, ultra-hot Jupiters are gas giants with atmospheres dominated by molecular hydrogen. What makes them interesting is that their dayside atmospheres are so hot that the molecules dissociate into individual hydrogen atoms more like the atmospheres of stars than planets.Because of the intense stellar irradiation, there is also an extreme temperature difference between the day and night sides of these planets potentially more than 1,000 K! As the stellar irradiation increases, the dayside atmosphere becomes hotter and hotter and the temperature difference between the day and night sides increases.When hot atomic hydrogen is transported into cooler regions (by winds, for instance), it recombines to form H2 molecules and heats the gas, effectively transporting heat from one location to another. This is similar to how the condensation of water redistributes heat in Earths atmosphere but what effect does this phenomenon have on the atmospheres of ultra-hot Jupiters?Maps of atmospheric temperature of molecular hydrogen dissociation fraction for three wind speeds. Click to enlarge. [Bell Cowan 2018]Modeling Heat RedistributionTaylor Bell and Nicolas Cowan (McGill University) used an energy-balance model to estimate the effects of H2 dissociation and recombination on heat transport in ultra-hot Jupiter atmospheres. In particular, they explored the redistribution of heat and how it affects the resultant phase curve the curve that describes the combination of reflected and thermally emitted light from the planet, observed as a function of its phase angle

  7. Climatology and trends of summer high temperature days in India ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    patterns, there is clear change in climatological mean and coefficient of variation of HT days in a ... regions of India probably from mid 1990s. ... in extreme climate events are more sensitive to cli- ... C since mid-1990s in south, east, north.

  8. Ideologies and Discourses: Extreme Narratives in Extreme Metal Music

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bojana Radovanović

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Historically speaking, metal music has always been about provoking a strong reaction. Depending on the characteristics of different sub-genres, one can focus on the sound, technique, visual appearance, and furthermore, the ideologies and ideas that are the foundation for each of the sub-genres. Although the majority of the metal community rejects accusations of being racially intolerant, some ideologies of extreme sub-genres (such as black metal are in fact formed around the ideas of self-conscious elitism expressed through interest in pagan mythology, racism, Nazism and fascism. There has been much interest in the Nazi era within the extreme metal scene thus influencing other sub-genres and artists. The aim of this paper is to examine various appearances of extreme narratives such as Nazism and racism in  different sub-genres of metal, bearing in mind variations dependent on geographical, political, and other factors.

  9. Heat Stress and feeding strategies in meat-type chickens

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Syafwan, W.; Kwakkel, R.P.; Verstegen, M.W.A.

    2011-01-01

    Heat stress can induce hyperthermia in poultry. A reduction in heat load can be achieved by increasing the possibilities for dissipation, decreasing the level of heat production or by changing the thermal production pattern within a day. Strategies to reduce the negative effects of heat stress can

  10. Study on diverse passive decay heat removal approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin Qian; Si Shengyi

    2012-01-01

    One of the most important principles for nuclear safety is the decay heat removal in accidents. Passive decay heat removal systems are extremely helpful to enhance the safety. In currently design of many advanced nuclear reactors, kinds of passive systems are proposed or developed, such as the passive residual heat removal system, passive injection system, passive containment cooling system. These systems provide entire passive heat removal paths from core to ultimate heat sink. Various kinds of passive systems for decay heat removal are summarized; their common features or differences on heat removal paths and design principle are analyzed. It is found that, these passive decay heat removal paths are similarly common on and connected by several basic heat transfer modes and steps. By the combinations or connections of basic modes and steps, new passive decay heat removal approach or diverse system can be proposed. (authors)

  11. Temperature and humidity based projections of a rapid rise in global heat stress exposure during the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coffel, Ethan D.; Horton, Radley M.; de Sherbinin, Alex

    2018-01-01

    As a result of global increases in both temperature and specific humidity, heat stress is projected to intensify throughout the 21st century. Some of the regions most susceptible to dangerous heat and humidity combinations are also among the most densely populated. Consequently, there is the potential for widespread exposure to wet bulb temperatures that approach and in some cases exceed postulated theoretical limits of human tolerance by mid- to late-century. We project that by 2080 the relative frequency of present-day extreme wet bulb temperature events could rise by a factor of 100-250 (approximately double the frequency change projected for temperature alone) in the tropics and parts of the mid-latitudes, areas which are projected to contain approximately half the world’s population. In addition, population exposure to wet bulb temperatures that exceed recent deadly heat waves may increase by a factor of five to ten, with 150-750 million person-days of exposure to wet bulb temperatures above those seen in today’s most severe heat waves by 2070-2080. Under RCP 8.5, exposure to wet bulb temperatures above 35 °C—the theoretical limit for human tolerance—could exceed a million person-days per year by 2080. Limiting emissions to follow RCP 4.5 entirely eliminates exposure to that extreme threshold. Some of the most affected regions, especially Northeast India and coastal West Africa, currently have scarce cooling infrastructure, relatively low adaptive capacity, and rapidly growing populations. In the coming decades heat stress may prove to be one of the most widely experienced and directly dangerous aspects of climate change, posing a severe threat to human health, energy infrastructure, and outdoor activities ranging from agricultural production to military training.

  12. Rapid heating of the atmosphere of an extrasolar planet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laughlin, Gregory; Deming, Drake; Langton, Jonathan; Kasen, Daniel; Vogt, Steve; Butler, Paul; Rivera, Eugenio; Meschiari, Stefano

    2009-01-29

    Near-infrared observations of more than a dozen 'hot-Jupiter' extrasolar planets have now been reported. These planets display a wide diversity of properties, yet all are believed to have had their spin periods tidally spin-synchronized with their orbital periods, resulting in permanent star-facing hemispheres and surface flow patterns that are most likely in equilibrium. Planets in significantly eccentric orbits can enable direct measurements of global heating that are largely independent of the details of the hydrodynamic flow. Here we report 8-microm photometric observations of the planet HD 80606b during a 30-hour interval bracketing the periastron passage of its extremely eccentric 111.4-day orbit. As the planet received its strongest irradiation (828 times larger than the flux received at apastron) its maximum 8-microm brightness temperature increased from approximately 800 K to approximately 1,500 K over a six-hour period. We also detected a secondary eclipse for the planet, which implies an orbital inclination of i approximately 90 degrees , fixes the planetary mass at four times the mass of Jupiter, and constrains the planet's tidal luminosity. Our measurement of the global heating rate indicates that the radiative time constant at the planet's 8-microm photosphere is approximately 4.5 h, in comparison with 3-5 days in Earth's stratosphere.

  13. Extreme temperature events affecting the electricity distribution system of the metropolitan area of Buenos Aires (1971–2013)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santágata, Daniela M.; Castesana, Paula; Rössler, Cristina E.; Gómez, Darío R.

    2017-01-01

    We studied the role of cold waves and heat waves on major power outages in the metropolitan area of Buenos Aires. Impacts of events occurring in the tails of distributions were assessed estimating deviations of minimum temperature, maximum temperature and hourly electricity consumption with respect to statistically derived thresholds and using three sets of data: temperature observations (1911–2013); major power outages reported in a disaster database (1971–2013) and hourly electricity consumption (2006–2013). These deviations (exceedances) proved to be adequate indicators of the stress posed by extreme temperature events to the electricity distribution system leading to major blackouts. Based on these indicators, we found that the electricity distribution system was under similar stress during cold waves or heat waves, but it was much more vulnerable to heat waves (three blackouts under cold waves against 20 under heat waves between 2006 and 2013). For heat waves, the results of a binomial regression logistic model provided an adequate description of the probability of disastrous supply interruptions in terms of exceedances in extreme temperatures and electricity consumption stress. This approach may be of use for other cities wishing to evaluate the effects of extreme temperature events on the electricity distribution infrastructure. - Highlights: • The linkage between extreme temperatures and disastrous power outages is analyzed. • Exceedance in extreme temperature and electricity consumption are stress indicators. • Extreme temperatures pose moderate to extreme impacts to electricity distribution. • Electricity distribution is more vulnerable to heat waves than cold waves.

  14. Heat pipe heat exchangers in heat recovery systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stulc, P; Vasiliev, L L; Kiseljev, V G; Matvejev, Ju N

    1985-01-01

    The results of combined research and development activities of the National Research Institute for Machine Design, Prague, C.S.S.R. and the Institute for Heat and Mass Transfer, Minsk, U.S.S.R. concerning intensification heat pipes used in heat pipe heat exchangers are presented. This sort of research has been occasioned by increased interest in heat power economy trying to utilise waste heat produced by various technological processes. The developed heat pipes are deployed in construction of air-air, gas-air or gas-gas heat recovery exchangers in the field of air-engineering and air-conditioning. (author).

  15. Melas Chasma, Day and Night.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-01

    This image is a mosaic of day and night infrared images of Melas Chasma taken by the camera system on NASA's Mars Odyssey spacecraft. The daytime temperature images are shown in black and white, superimposed on the martian topography. A single nighttime temperature image is superimposed in color. The daytime temperatures range from approximately -35 degrees Celsius (-31 degrees Fahrenheit) in black to -5 degrees Celsius (23 degrees Fahrenheit) in white. Overlapping landslides and individual layers in the walls of Melas Chasma can be seen in this image. The landslides flowed over 100 kilometers (62 miles) across the floor of Melas Chasma, producing deposits with ridges and grooves of alternating warm and cold materials that can still be seen. The temperature differences in the daytime images are due primarily to lighting effects, where sunlit slopes are warm (bright) and shadowed slopes are cool (dark). The nighttime temperature differences are due to differences in the abundance of rocky materials that retain their heat at night and stay relatively warm (red). Fine grained dust and sand (blue) cools off more rapidly at night. These images were acquired using the thermal infrared imaging system infrared Band 9, centered at 12.6 micrometers.Jet Propulsion Laboratory, a division of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena, manages the 2001 Mars Odyssey mission for NASA's Office of Space Science in Washington, D.C. Investigators at Arizona State University in Tempe, the University of Arizona in Tucson and NASA's Johnson Space Center, Houston, operate the science instruments. Additional science partners are located at the Russian Aviation and Space Agency and at Los Alamos National Laboratories, New Mexico. Lockheed Martin Astronautics, Denver, is the prime contractor for the project, and developed and built the orbiter. Mission operations are conducted jointly from Lockheed Martin and from JPL. Aviation and Space Agency and at Los Alamos National Laboratories

  16. Actual and future trends of extreme values of temperature for the NW Iberian Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taboada, J.; Brands, S.; Lorenzo, N.

    2009-09-01

    It is now very well established that yearly averaged temperatures are increasing due to anthropogenic climate change. In the area of Galicia (NW Spain) this trend has also been determined. The main objective of this work is to assess actual and future trends of different extreme indices of temperature, which are of curcial importance for many impact studies. Station data for the study was provided by the CLIMA database of the regional government of Galicia (NW Spain). As d